It's Not Rate Hikes That Are "Sparking An Economic Boom", It's The Fiscal Stimulus

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Polybius Crisis

Take a step back (in time), and see that our neoliberal, debt-addled, was-lower-for-longer global system is not just in a Polycrisis but a Polybius Crisis - referring to the ancient Greek historian.

Polybius

Methodology: Polybius was first to argue ‘consider your source’: today, media and markets still spout and swallow propaganda. He argues we can’t look at history in just one area, as what happens everywhere effects what is going on everywhere else: but modern markets have monomanias for one asset class, geography, and ideology: markets-first neoliberalism.

Yet while 2024 opened with talk of 7 Fed cuts, then 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2, it just saw calls that US rate cuts are needed to lower inflation (because of the slump in housing supply that recent US data won’t help); chatter of 2 rate hikes; and now Bloomberg asks, ‘What if the Fed’s Hikes Are Actually Sparking an Economic Boom?’ Is neoliberalism in crisis, or is this a new copium given Fed Chair Powell just said he’s prepared to keep rates steady “as long as needed”?

Bloomberg notes that high rates = stimulus is an MMT heresy, but huge budget deficits mean high rates put more cash into people’s pockets (as they take it from others’). Yet it’s fiscal deficits, not rate hikes, that do that trick, another neoliberal shibboleth. (And an MMT one: Stephanie Kelton argues rate hikes contribute to the deficit, so cutting them would lower it… as if supply-side inflation and speculation with new liquidity aren’t connected to rates.)

Meanwhile, trade and FX are next. Perhaps-future US Treasury Secretary Lighthizer mocks the argument the US saves too little because Americans are profligate; (correctly) says low savings / large US trade deficits are caused by foreign industrial policy; forcing the trade deficit to narrow means savings would rise; and wants low corporate taxes, low regulation, subsidies, tariffs, and a “sensible” trade policy to fight mercantilism. If you don’t understand that throws global markets into a tailspin, like the economists Lighthizer mocks, you don’t understand that system.

On security: Polybius would not be surprised that today we have a failing global security architecture because US National Security Advisor Sullivan doesn’t say ‘Si vis pacem, para bellum’, but ‘Quaeso, sume prandium meum argentum!’ (“Please, take my lunch money!”) That approach was always going to lead to a Ukraine-Russia war, or similar; an Israel-Iran clash; and, in parallel and conflating with both, Taiwan-China tensions.

There is now frenetic activity to try to moderate any Israeli counterstrike on Iran to prevent a regional conflagration; Daniela Gabor tweets from the IMF/World Bank spring meeting, “geopolitical conflict is paralyzing everything… including on climate finance.”; and ECB President Lagarde says rate cuts are coming provided there are no inflation shocks(!) As I asked yesterday, ‘who leads and who is led?’ It’s no longer central banks.

On politics: Polybius argues societies start as ochlocracy (mob rule); a strong leader starts monarchy (rule by one: the ‘spare’ gets a Netflix deal); power turns this to tyranny (‘democracy’, says the Ivy League); an elite revolution sets up aristocracy (rule by the best); they also lose virtue, and we get oligarchy (‘neoliberalism’ to everyone but economists); they get overthrown by the people for democracy (rule by the majority: ‘tyranny’ says the Ivy League); but people lack virtue, so this turns to ochlocracy; and the cycle restarts. Polybius argues it’s best to combine monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy.

However, as we loom closer to the EU and US elections, and what populism may emerge, he’d probably repeat: “…enticing and corrupting the common people in every possible way… they have made the populace ready and greedy to receive bribes, the virtue of democracy is destroyed, and it is transformed into a government of violence and the strong hand. For the mob, habituated to feed at the expense of others, and to have its hopes of a livelihood in the property of its neighbours, as soon as it has got a leader sufficiently ambitious and daring… produces a reign of mere violence. Then come tumultuous assemblies, massacres, banishments, redivisions of land; until, after losing all trace of civilisation, it has once more found a master and a despot.” (Or ‘decolonisation’ as they call it at US Ivy League schools and on social media.)

On Great Power struggles: Polybius notes in less than a lifetime Rome went from city-state to the master of the world by winning the Punic Wars vs. Carthage. History can sometimes move fast:

• He speaks of the importance of fate – big things can ‘just happen’: today, we price out term premia from yield curves, and think they won’t.
• Rome defeated Carthage after humiliating defeats to Hannibal due to its strategic depth and the superiority of the Roman constitution.
• Its checks and balances prevented any one part of the state from dominating others; and “when we see good customs and good laws prevailing among certain people, we confidently assume that, in consequence of them, the men and their civil constitution will be good also, so when we see private life full of covetousness, and public policy of injustice, plainly we have reason for asserting their laws, particular customs, and general constitution to be bad.”
• In Carthage, “nothing is disgraceful that makes for gain”; in Rome, “nothing is more disgraceful than to receive bribes and to make profit by improper means… The Carthaginians obtain office by open bribery, but among the Romans the penalty for it is death.”
• “The most important difference for the better which the Roman commonwealth appears to me to display is in their religious beliefs.”
• Carthage employed foreign mercenaries; the Romans didn’t (at first). “The result is that even if the Romans have suffered a defeat at first, they renew the war with undiminished forces, which the Carthaginians cannot do. For, as the Romans are fighting for country and children, it is impossible for them to relax the fury of their struggle; but they persist with obstinate resolution until they have overcome their enemies.”
• Rome’s focus on “Carthago delenda est” (Carthage must be destroyed) proved the rallying point for their society in the end.
• Polybius argues Carthage’s constitution couldn’t overcome that “There is in every body, or polity, or business a natural stage of growth, zenith, and decay… so far as the strength and prosperity of Carthage preceded that of Rome in point of time, by so much was Carthage then past its prime, while Rome was exactly at its zenith, as far as its political constitution was concerned. In Carthage therefore the influence of the people in the policy of the state had already risen to be supreme, while at Rome the Senate was at the height of its power: and so, as in the one measures were deliberated upon by the many, in the other by the best men, the policy of the Romans in all public undertakings proved the stronger; on which account, though they met with capital disasters, by force of prudent counsels they finally conquered the Carthaginians in the war.”

A glance at Polybius underlines our Western neoliberal crisis. Consider his comments on good laws and customs in an election year where the leading US presidential candidate is in a New York courtroom charged with a crime some legal experts say is a misdemeanour, but with a stack of serious cases elsewhere, as allegations of double standards are thrown; and as Belgium tried to ban a political meeting involving former UK PM Truss and Nigel Farage for being dangerously ‘far right’: dangerously far out, maybe. Or look to Polybius’s views on corruption, as it spreads; religion, as religiosity falls; and on mercenaries, as the West’s willingness to fight for their own country evaporates, according to survey data, just as the need to fight grows more urgent.

Yet while Rome and the US both rose to power within a lifetime, the former went on for a great many more, becoming an empire that took more than 650 years to fall in the West, and another millennium in the East. Time may be on the West’s side yet. Could Western checks and balances help it find a new rallying cry like “something construenda est”? And as importantly, what is ‘Team Carthage’ doing? There are two sides to every Great Power struggle.

To summarize, however, reading biased reports not objective analysis; monomaniacal reports not broader thinking; ignoring the Classical world’s lessons on realpolitik; that how we run societies has been an issue for thousands of years, not since 2016; and that Great Power struggles are always with us, ensures you will swept away in a Polybius Crisis. Ancient wisdom isn’t perfect; but it’s arguably a lot better than relying on a contemporary world’s decided lack of wisdom.

“NEOLIBERALISM DELENDA EST”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 22:20

Alleged Illegal Immigrant Who Couldn't Speak English Caught Trying To Rob Bank Using A Translator App

You'd figure if you're in the country illegally, you'd at least have the courtesy to learn the language before trying to hold up a bank...

But basic human decency is dead these days, as was exemplified by a Venezuelan-born man named Yeixon Brito-Gonzalez, who was caught trying to rob a bank in Sandusky, Ohio last week, according to PJ Media. 

The police were able to apprehend him because he couldn't speak English and resorted to using a translation app to communicate his demands to the bank tellers. When the tellers - probably wondering if they were being "Punk'd" - did not comply, Brito-Gonzalez, evidently embarrassed, simply left the scene, the report says.

The perp failed to prepare even basic English phrases like "give me the money" or bring an accomplice who could speak the language, the report says.

Upon locating Brito-Gonzalez, the police brought along a Spanish-speaking officer to interrogate him but he tried to play dumb. The report says it was later revealed that he told the teller he needed "money in a bag".

Don't we all...

Sandusky Police Chief Jared Oliver said: 

"I have been in law enforcement for over 20 years and this is the first time I encountered something like this, someone using a translator app to try and rob a bank. First time our officers have dealt with it too."

It's has not been confirmed whether Brito-Gonzalez is in the U.S. illegally, though his lack of ID at arrest implies this might be the case.

Nevertheless, while federal authorities will likely question him, there are doubts about enforcement under the current administration, suggesting he may not face stringent consequences (as has been the running theme across the U.S. since Joe Biden has been in office). 

Sandusky is a small city nestled along the shores of Lake Erie. Known primarily for its role as a major hub for rail and water transport, Sandusky has been a vital part of Ohio's economy since its establishment in 1818. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 22:00

Bidenomics - Inflation Persists And Jobs Decay: Gingrich

Authored by Newt Gingrich via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Last week brought bad news for the American people and President Joe Biden. Inflation persists and jobs are decaying.

President Joe Biden speaks about Bidenomics at CS Wind, in Pueblo, Colo., on Nov. 29, 2023. (Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images)

On inflation, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported prices rose 3.5 percent between March 2023 and March 2024. This bad number is far higher than the U.S. Federal Reserve’s goal of 2 percent inflation—and it follows three years of price increases.

Inflation continues to build even after the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to their highest point in 23 years.

Much to the Fed’s dismay, its restrictive private sector policies are being more than offset by the Biden administration’s massive deficits. While the Fed is trying to take liquidity out of the system and force a slowdown to lower inflation, the Biden administration keeps pumping borrowed money into the economy.

The contradiction between the Fed and the Biden White House increases the scale of government and shrinks the private sector. Furthermore, since the federal government is the world’s largest debtor, high interest rates translate into an even bigger federal deficit.

So, the long run consequences of Bidenomics on inflation is staggering. Measured from the time President Joe Biden took office, the prices Americans are paying have skyrocketed. In just three-and-a-half years, the price of eggs is up 49.3 percent, gasoline is up 47.5 percent, peanut butter is up 40 percent, butter and margarine are up 32 percent, electricity is up 28.3 percent, air fare is up 32.7 percent, used cars are up 20.9 percent—and the list continues.

The American people feel these price increases, and they are unhappy. Most Americans rate the economy as poor, while only 38 percent consider the economy is in good shape. (Under President Donald Trump, 65 percent rated the economy as good.)

As the Wall Street Journal editorialized:

“[I]f voters are downbeat about the economy, persistent inflation is a good reason. Price increases across the Biden Presidency are unlike anything Americans have seen in recent decades. They have been a particular shock for low-income and younger workers who haven’t accumulated a wealth cushion in the stock market or housing values.

“Mr. Biden is the main architect of his inflation problem—and ours.”

Mark Halperin with his usual insight asserted: “The story of who will win this election might just be that voters demand a change from the mind-boggling high cost of almost everything. The prices are just too damn high.”

As if inflation was not a big enough problem there is a an even bigger problem growing with the employment news.

As Matt Weidinger outlined in AEI Ideas:

“[I]n the past 12 months, employment among US natives is down by 651,000. Those declines were focused on men, a group President Biden already has increasing difficulties winning over.”

“In contrast, employment among foreign-born individuals grew by 1,266,000 in the past year, driven by the rapidly growing population of foreign-born individuals ages 16 and over in the US, which rose by almost 2.6 million during the past year. “

“The gap between US native and foreign-born employment is even starker since last summer. Since its peak in July 2023, employment of US natives has fallen by over 2.0 million, while employment of the foreign-born has risen by almost 1.4 million. “

From President Biden’s standpoint, Weidinger highlights a deadly detail:

“Friday’s jobs report reveals that unemployment among Black or African American individuals rose in March for the third consecutive month, to over 1.4 million, the highest level since January 2022. That group’s unemployment rate has risen from 5.1 percent to 6.4 percent in the past year.”

The jobs numbers contain even more problems for President Biden because part-time jobs are increasing much faster than full-time jobs. More and more Americans are finding themselves working two or three jobs—often with little or no benefits—just to make ends meet in an economy of constantly rising prices.

So, Bidenomics means rising prices, fewer jobs, more part-time employment, and a desperate sense that things are just not working.

Still, the propaganda media is trying hard to paint a pretty picture. CNN, for example, called the latest monthly jobs report a “blowout.”

But everyday Americans know when they go to the grocery store, pay monthly bills, or fill up their cars that life has gotten harder under President Biden.

The trademark of Bidenomics may be the steady shrinking of products. Take a Trump era candy bar or box of cereal and place it next to the same product today. In most cases, the price increased, and the unit size has shrunk.

Simply put: Bidenomics means you get less for more.

If this economic failure persists for another seven months—and it almost certainly will—then Bidenomics may be Biden’s downfall.

From Gingrich360.com

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 21:40

Why Does A Woke Maryland Private School Want To Know The Gender Identity Of Young Students, And If They Had "Oral Sex"?

The parents of an elite Baltimore County, Maryland, private school, where tuition ranges from $32,000 for lower school to as high as $38,000 for upper school per year, are beyond frustrated. Many can't voice their concerns about the woke mind virus infecting the school's administration because contracts signed during the Covid era silence them from speaking out. 

The St. Paul's School in the Greenspring area, just above imploding Baltimore City, and nestled in steeplechase horse country, continues to have a weird fetish about asking young, vulnerable students about their "gender" and "sexuality."

In January, parents went bonkers when an "identity inventory" was handed out to young boys. The questionnaire asked them if they were "Cisgender" or "Transgender" or "Gender Non-Conforming" or "Agender." 

After the school hushed up several parents, making an example out of at least one, where the parent's kids were suspended then reinstated after the parent spoke out on social media about wokenism being injected into the curriculum, the school could not help itself by going down the woke rabbit hole - once again. 

Yet more parents have contacted us about another survey given to young girls at the school. This time, it's called the "Independent School Health Check," and it was administered by the Indiana University Center For Survey Research. 

Parents are particularly livid with these two questions (and the answers): 

1. "Do you currently identify your gender as being the same or different from your sex assigned at birth?"
2. "How do you describe yourself?"

One parent told us this is a "grooming mechanism ..." 

One very concerned parent asked why their kids are data mined by the school like Google does for internet search browsers.

Another parent voiced concerns that other private schools in the area have "gone full woke," while public schools in the state are imploding. 

The lesson learned is parents need to heavily vet schools and or get involved to ensure their children are not being brainwashed by dangerous wokeism. 

As for the concerned parents, now is the best time to homeschool - or how about - starting a non-woke school that actually focuses on learning instead of toxic gender nonsense.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 21:20

Tucker Carlson: Congress Is Lying To You About FISA

Authored by Tucker Carlson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

The U.S. House is expected to vote Friday on a two-year extension of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, commonly known as FISA. This transcript has been edited for length and reprinted with permission from Tucker Carlson.

A few years ago, we learned conclusively that, in fact, the FBI and the federal intel agencies—the dozen or more federal intel agencies we have, for some reason—had been working secretly against Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

The Justice Department building on a foggy morning in Washington, on Dec. 9, 2019. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

Trump had whispered about this, then shouted about it, was roundly denounced as a conspiracy nut, a lunatic. But in the end, he was vindicated. It was true.

These agencies spied on Trump, and they leaked some of what they learned to the media, which used it against Trump. Then these agencies concocted false stories about Trump. They tried to crush Trump completely in 2016 and then for the entire course of his presidency. Then they did the same thing in 2020 during the presidential election.

And they’re doing it still. They’re trying to put him in prison for the rest of his life. So if we take three steps back, what you have here is what we’re seeing now.

For the third time in three consecutive cycles, secretive federal agencies are trying to rig our presidential election. This is what the Democrats refer to as democracy, and they’re trying to defend it. But of course, it’s the opposite of democracy. It’s, in fact, the end of democracy in any semblance of a constitutional republic we ever had.

If you have a secret police force threatening people, spying on them, and working secretly the levers of political power, then you don’t have a democracy. You have no control over really anything as a voter.

So if there’s one thing the Republican Party, the opposition party, should be doing in response to this, right now, it’s fighting back against this descent into totalitarianism. They should be working to return freedom and democracy to the country. They should defend the Constitution. They should rein in these agencies, Washington secret police.

But you will not be surprised to learn they’ve been busy doing just the opposite. So if you’re wondering why no one is going to prison for any of this, now that we know what actually happened, well, the reason is in part a law called FISA, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, has been around a long time.

Sen. Teddy Kennedy first proposed it, by the way, back in the mid-1970s. And that law allows the federal government to spy without a warrant on foreigners outside the borders of the country. The idea is bad people are doing bad things against us. We need to know what they are, and we can’t bother to go to a court to get a warrant every time we want to know, but it will never be used against American citizens. Well, of course, now we know it has been at scale.

That law, FISA, has made it possible. So that law is now up for reauthorization in the House of Representatives. And amazingly, the new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, has spent the last couple of weeks doing all he can to get that law reauthorized.

In other words, to allow the federal agencies to continue to spy upon and punish people who disagree with them. In other words, Mike Johnson’s own party. Republicans, Trump voters. Mike Johnson has been working to do that, and that effort failed [Wednesday] because members of Congress heard from their constituents or came to their senses, saw the truth in a dream.

Whatever happened, they stopped Mike Johnson from doing that for the moment. So that’s a good thing. And you ought to be celebrating. And even if you didn’t know it was happening—and a lot of people didn’t because it got very little media coverage. But of course, this is a temporary victory. Like all bad things, like that Chlamydia you got in a hot tub in Cabo in college, it will come back.

This attempt to spy on you, an American citizen, without a warrant because you’ve been politically disobedient. Why will it come back? Because it’s what they really care about. And so, before it does come back, it’s worth just a very quick autopsy.

What just happened? What do we just see so we can learn a couple of important lessons?

Ep. 92 The FISA bill is dead but, like herpes, it’ll be back. It’s important to punish the people that pushed it. pic.twitter.com/QFRh16SsRL

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) April 10, 2024

The first lesson we’re going to learn is that a lot of powerful people in the Congress are liars. They lie without shame, in fact, with pride. And they do so at the behest of or because of blackmail instituted by the intel agencies. And at the head of that list would be the chairman of the House Intel Committee, Mike Turner of Ohio.

We’re going to play a clip from Mike Turner of Ohio saying exactly the opposite of what is true here. Is Mike Turner reassuring you that face, it would never, under the face of law, the U.S. government would never be allowed to spy on you without a warrant, because that’s unconstitutional. It never happened. It never will happen. And if you think otherwise, you’re probably one of those UFO-believing nutjobs who want to stop doing ayahuasca.

Here’s House Intel Committee, pawn of the intel agencies, Mike Turner of Ohio:

“They are—we are not surveilling foreigners in the United States. We’re not surveilling Americans, United States. Those individuals who say that is a warrantless search of Americans’ data are just not telling the truth. These are foreigners abroad. They’re a select group of individuals who are a national security threat. If you’re an American and you’re corresponding with ISIS, yes. If we’re, if we’re spying on ISIS, your communications are going to be captured. And you would want us to do that. All Americans would want us to try to make certain that we keep ourselves safe from these terrorist, outside terrorist groups, organizations. We are not spying on Americans. This is not a warrantless surveillance program. This is foreigners who are abroad only.”

Every word of that is a lie. And we don’t need to guess. And I hate to use that pronoun, but I specifically don’t need to guess, because that actually happened to me.

The [National Security Agency] broke into my text messages, read them, passed them to news organizations in order to discredit me, and then admitted that they did that. They spied on me and they did it under FISA because I was daring to text with a foreigner outside our borders.

So Mike Turner knows that, he’s the chairman of the intel committee. He knows he’s lying, but he’s doing it anyway because it’s that important to preserve that core power.

If you have the power to spy on someone and then to leak the information that you gather or manipulated and then leak it in order to control that person, that’s a major power. In fact, that’s a bigger power than any voter in this country has. And so he’s acting on their behalf when he lies to you. And so it shouldn’t surprise you that they want to keep that power.

They want to keep it so badly that over the last week, U.S. government officials did something that may not have precedent in Washington. They lobbied members of Congress directly. They, in the words they used in Washington, they whipped the bill.

Officials from the Department of Justice called, among others, [Rep.] Chip Roy of Texas to demand that he vote for FISA reauthorization.

Imagine that—DOJ, Department of Justice, the federal law enforcement agency, called Chip Roy and said, “You got to do this.” Think about that.

Is there any group in this country more powerful than the Department of Justice? They can put you in jail, and they’ve shown a willingness to do that. They could put kiddy porn on your computer. They’ve probably done that too. And everybody who serves in Congress knows that, and everybody’s afraid of them—along with the CIA and NSA and a bunch of other, three other agencies.

Members of Congress are afraid of them because they know the consequences of disobedience. And so for them to call directly a member of Congress would be like the FBI coming to your House on Election Day and demanding that you vote for their designated candidate. And then having access to the record of who you actually voted for, as they do in the Congress.

Can you imagine? You’d be highly motivated to vote for their candidate, wouldn’t you? Yes, you would. So they’re willing to do anything to get this enshrined in law, because it gives them legal cover to subvert democracy, which is their program, of course.

Read the full transcript at TuckerCarlson.com. Reprinted by permission from The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 21:00

Sanctuary Cities Set Migrant Sex Offenders Free Instead Of Handing Them Over To ICE

Long painted as safe havens of humanitarianism by the establishment media, sanctuary cities are slowly being exposed for the underlying hypocrisy that motivates their policies.  Red states such as Texas and Florida have been very effective in pulling back the curtain, using the busing of illegals to sanctuary cities as a tool to force Democrats to stand by their own open borders principles (or abandon them out of convenience). 

As we witnessed when Ron DeSantis flew a few dozen illegals to the elitist neighborhoods of Martha's Vineyard, wealthy leftists were quick to buy cheap take-out food for the migrants and pose with them for the news cameras.  Then, when the media was done with their propaganda segments the residents kicked those same migrants out of town within 48 hours and shipped them to the nearest military base.  One of the richest enclaves in the entire US and they refused to stand by their supposed convictions for more than two days; not one migrant was allowed to stay or work in Martha's Vineyard.

Democrats were so embarrassed by the incident that they tried to have DeSantis sued and charged with "human trafficking."  The Martha's Vineyard incident marked the beginning of a surge in migrant buses to cities like New York and Washington DC.  All it took was ten thousand to fifteen thousand illegals to overwhelm city welfare programs and subsidies.  Mayors in both metro areas have called for a declaration of emergency and federal aid, including National Guard troops.  In the meantime, the media blames conservative states for the disaster even though it is the sanctuary status of these cities that makes the crisis possible.   

The message being sent is that the political left needs media cover for their policies because their policies constantly fail (or succeed in being destructive, depending on how you look at it).  They simply never intended for the surge of illegals to land on their doorstep.  One area that is consistently damaging to the progressive image is the catch and release of numerous illegal migrant criminals who go on to harm innocent American citizens.  The growing list of incidents surrounding migrant crime is creating a PR nightmare for Democrats. 

People are starting to ask - If Democrats knowingly release dangerous migrant offenders onto the streets, are Democrats then accountable for the people those migrants go on to harm?  For example, Haitian migrant Cory Alvarez, who was arrested for raping a 15 year old girl with disabilities in Massachusetts, entered the United States using the Biden administration’s CHNV parole program.

This program allows Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans to fly into the U.S. after they’ve supposedly been vetted and have a sponsor in the U.S.  Clearly the vetting process is non-existent and the flights are designed to allow illegals to bypass any existing border protections and claim "asylum", thus making them semantically "legal."  CHNV frequently transports migrants to sanctuary cities where they can avoid scrutiny by ICE.  But the problem goes further...

A Colombian child sex offender in the US illegally was released onto the streets by California authorities rather than sent for deportation, due to sanctuary state laws.  The criminal, who’s identity has not been revealed publicly, was convicted of unlawful sexual intercourse with a minor and sentenced to four years in prison in December 2022, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).  Fifteen months later he was freed by San Bernardino County and a request from ICE to be notified of his release was not honored.

The migrant traveled across the country to Boston, MA where he was finally apprehended by ICE agents.  Agents are frequently forced to work around sanctuary laws in Boston as well, recovering multiple migrant sex offenders daily and deporting them without the help of the city. 

In the span of only two weeks in February 2024, ICE apprehended at least 275 illegals with sex offense convictions during a nationwide operation.  Imagine how many are still living within our borders because of sanctuary status.

Sanctuary cities are run by local governments that have vowed to refuse to work with federal immigration authorities in any capacity, and some have even set out to obstruct or sabotage ICE agents in the apprehension of dangerous suspects.  But what can be learned from the trend of blue cities catching and then releasing the very worst kinds of criminals on the planet simply because they are migrants?

It's interesting that Democrats are usually so rabid about federal government control and intervention in most areas of American society, but when it comes to securing the border and vetting foreign immigrants, one of the few jobs that the feds should be doing today, leftists suddenly oppose federal presence.  The lesson here is that progressives are not willing to negotiate their open border agenda in the slightest, even to prevent child victimization.  This forces us to ask an important question:  If they aren't willing to compromise to protect the most vulnerable of American citizens, why should conservatives compromise with them on overall immigration?       

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 20:40

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 3.2.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million.

Excused Juror Reveals Selection Process For Trump’s 'Hush-Money' Trial: 'All Have Prior Opinions'

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A juror who was excused from serving on the Manhattan trial of former President Donald Trump provided details about the questions potential jurors were asked.

Kara McGee an excused juror, speaks to the media outside Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on April 16, 2024, during the second day of the trial against former President Donald Trump for allegedly covering up hush money payments linked to extramarital affairs. (Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images)

Kara McGee told media outlets outside the courtroom on Tuesday that she was dismissed but said she believes she could be impartial, adding still that it would be “very difficult for anyone really in this country to not come to this without prior opinions.”

“We all have prior opinions on the defendant, unless you’ve been living in a cardbox,” she said, adding that she was excused because of her job in the cybersecurity sector.

Regarding her personal feelings on President Trump, the woman said, “I’m not a fan.” The main reason why, she said, is because of how she believed he handled the COVID-19 pandemic response.

But Ms. McGee provided some insight on the questions that were asked of the jurors.

“One of which is: Do you have opinions about the ability for a former sitting president to be tried in a court of law? Which I think the way people answered that showed how they felt about case,” she said. “The other one was: Do you have any opinions about legal limits for campaign finance donation amounts? Which I believe was another one that was kinda meant to gauge feelings about the particular case,” she added.

As of Wednesday morning, seven jurors have been selected with five more slots remaining. The judge has indicated that he will choose about six extra jurors to serve as backups.

This is one of the prospective jurors who assured us she could be unbiased in the Trump trial.

She was dismissed due to scheduling conflicts. But she said this, while also assuring the court that she could have remained objective and unbiased. pic.twitter.com/2D4cp2WdBc

— Viva Frei (@thevivafrei) April 17, 2024

Responding to the jury-selection process, President Trump wrote on Wednesday: “I thought STRIKES were supposed to be ‘unlimited’ when we were picking our jury? I was then told we only had 10, not nearly enough when we were purposely given the 2nd Worst Venue in the Country. Don’t worry, we have the First Worst also, as the Witch Hunt continues!”

The former president is on trial for allegedly falsifying payments that were made during the 2016 campaign meant to bury potentially negative stories about him. Prosecutors say that he delivered $130,000 to former lawyer Michael Cohen to deal with a story about an alleged affair with adult actress Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, which the former president has denied.

In court papers, President Trump’s lawyers have argued that the payments were legitimate expenses. He’s pleaded not guilty to the charges, which are felonies, and said it’s an attempt to denigrate his 2024 presidential chances.

Before entering the court on Tuesday, President Trump described the judge, Juan Merchan, as a “Trump-hating” official who “shouldn’t be on this case.” Earlier, he said that the judge is “conflicted” because his daughter works as a consultant for the Democratic Party and has had high-profile clients including Vice President Kamala Harris.

“It’s a trial that is being looked upon and looked at all over the world ... they’re looking at, analyzing it. Every legal pundit, every legal scholar said this trial is a disgrace,” the former president added.

The judge has refused to recuse himself in the case. On Monday, Judge Merchan again said he wouldn’t recuse himself and added that the matter will not be considered again until an appeals court renders a decision.

Also Monday, Judge Merchan told President Trump that he has to show up in court every day it’s in session, adding that “there will be an arrest” if he doesn’t. It means that the former president will not be able to hold many campaign events, including in many key battleground states, for the next several weeks.

Former president Donald Trump visits a bodega store in upper Manhattan where a worker was assaulted by a man in 2022 and ended up killing him in an ensuing fight in New York on April 16, 2024. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The former president visited a New York City bodega where a man was stabbed to death, with the aides saying he chose the store because it has been the site of a violent attack on an employee, a case that resulted in public criticism for the Democratic district attorney, Alvin Bragg, now prosecuting him.

The visit was President Trump’s first campaign appearance since his criminal hush money trial began, making the presumptive GOP nominee the first former president in U.S. history to stand criminal trial.

“They want law and order ... every week they’re being robbed,” the former president said of businesses in New York, as he tried to compare his prosecution with what happens on New York streets. “You know where the crime is? It’s in the bodegas.”

“Papito Trump is coming. Yeah!” said one passerby ahead of the former president’s arrival. Another woman who spoke to The Associated Press said that the former president “speaks the truth,” making reference to illegal immigration. “I think that he will make a difference,” she added.

“I love this city,” the former president told reporters after emerging from the store. “We’re going to straighten New York out.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 20:20

Iran Navy Escorting Iranian Commercial Ships To Red Sea To Prevent Reprisal

Iran has newly declared that its military will begin a mission to escort Iranian commercial ships to the Red Sea, protecting them from any potential hostile attacks or intercepts from the West or Israel, which comes as Washington and the European Union are readying expanded sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

"The Navy is carrying out a mission to escort Iranian commercial ships to the Red Sea and our Jamaran frigate is present in the Gulf of Aden in this view," announced Naval Commander Shahram Irani, as cited in state media.

Getty Images

Ironically Iran's allies the Houthis are currently blocking global commercial shipping in the Red Sea, having up to this point launched dozens or possibly hundreds of attacks on Western and international vessels. The Houthis have said they will allow safe passage for Chinese and Russian vessels, and of course it goes without saying that Iranian ships will be protected.

This fresh Iranian navy announcement also comes in the context of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) having seized the Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Aries on April 13 near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians say it is an Israeli-linked ship. 

Iran now appears to be preparing to protect against retaliation for this ship seizure, such as the possibility of the US Navy intercepting Iranian oil tankers, also against tense backdrop of Israel mulling a direct attack on Iran following the Saturday overnight Iranian drone and missile attack on the Jewish state.

CNBC says that all of this is likely only the beginning: 

Before this weekend’s tanker seizure, the last vessel Iran hijacked was the St. Nikolas on January 1. According to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, that brought the total number of vessels being held to five, and over 90 crew members hostage. Previous to that, the Iranian-backed Houthis hijacked The Galaxy Leader on November 19.

The latest development has shipping and energy experts bracing for a long-term timeline of uncertainty.

"Iran is in this for the long haul," said Samir Madani, co-founder of Tankertrackers.com, an independent online service that tracks and reports crude oil shipments in several geographical and geopolitical points of interest.

Tehran has also recently reiterated long-running threats that it could close the vital Strait of Hormuz which its forces regularly patrol and is just off the Islamic Republic's coast. 

Iran's military has also of late been threatening to attack US military bases across the Middle East, especially in Western Iraq and Eastern Syria. Western diplomats are currently seeking to push Prime Minister Netanyahu to stand down and not escalate further, but it seems Tel Aviv is indeed planning something imminent.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 20:00

2020: The Year The System Showed Its Real Face

Authored by Paul Rosenberg via FreemansPerspective.com,

(Originally published September 28, 2020.)

As we grew up, nearly all of us were inundated with stories of our glorious national fathers, our beautiful democracies, and so on.

And being young, we for the most part believed them. The system gave us our prosperity, our comfort, our medicine, our sense of importance.

Soon enough we learned that the system was also stupid and perverse, but we found a way around that contradiction by blaming one segment of the system or another: The Blues or the Greens or the Reds were the problem; it could not, must not, be that the system itself is the problem.

Then came 2020, and the system revealed its true face.

I suppose I should be fair and add that the system wasn’t always as rotten as it is now, but regardless, it wasn’t able to prevent the rot that overtook it.

2020, In A Nasty Little Nutshell

The system would like everything except the daily outrages (one for the Blues, one for the Reds) to go down the Memory Hole. So I think it’s important to recap the revelations of 2020:

The system decreed who could work and who couldn’t. This was not done democratically; it was done by edict. “Democracy” did nothing to stop it.

People were arrested for going to church or synagogue. This was the real disgrace of the police forces. Are there any orders from their paymasters they won’t enforce upon us?

Political gangs roam the streets, beating, threatening and burning. Make no mistake, these are covertly authorized political gangs, serving political ends. This vile tactic goes back to ancient Rome at least, where gangs of thugs beat opponents in the streets.

“Science” said one thing then the opposite, supporting whatever power wanted. Not every scientist, but more or less the entire grant-seeking, position-seeking complex showed themselves to be without integrity; they said and did whatever power wanted them to do.

Mass media was as a fear delivery system. They were devoted to capturing eyeballs with fear and monetizing outrage. Journalistic integrity was a joke at best.

Social media silenced thousands of dissenters, purely at the behest of political power. This was no less that the mass suppression of speech. (If you want to profit from becoming the public square, you have to act like a public square.) Free services have always been parasites, but these have shown themselves to be sycophantic to the point of fascism.

The mandatory school system, around which millions of families had arranged their lives, was ripped away in an instant.

Hate was legitimated. Political loud-mouths and televised faces have treated hate as the voice of justice, instead of the disease it is. Millions have joined in the barbarity, pretending that hate is actually duty, honor, and truth.

More could be added, but this is quite enough to make my point: The system is not what we were taught it was, and 2020 has revealed that quite well.

The System Doesn’t Deserve Us

By referring to “the system” and “us,” I’m dividing the world into two parts, and so I should be clear on what those parts are:

Us refers to producers: the people who grow food, transport it, process it, build machines, provide medical care, and so on. Everyone from the construction worker to the small business owner to the cleaning lady is a producer, and deserve great respect for what they do. We owe all the comforts of our lives, and frequently our lives altogether, to these people.

The system refers to the entire governmental complex that takes our money and couldn’t survive without it. It also includes everything that couldn’t be what they are without them: Central banks, government school systems, businesses that live on government connections, television networks, social media behemoths, and more or less everything high and mighty.

What I’d like is for the producers of the world to become clear on the fact that we don’t need them. Everything they “do for us” is done with our money, which they take from us by force and fraud.

So let’s be honest about this: The system is a violent, corrupt and control-obsessed entity. Millions of us would choose other arrangements if we could, but the system forbids them. Forcibly.

We should also understand that this has happened before. Here, to illustrate, is a passage from historian C. Delisle Burns on the real reason Rome collapsed:

Great numbers of men and women were unwilling to make make the effort required for the maintenance of the old order, not because they were not good enough to fulfill their civic duties, but because they were too good to be satisfied with a system from which so few derived benefit.

The system is not worthy of our labor and treasure. Whether or not it once was (and if so, when) no longer matters.

2020 has made this much clear. It’s time to drop our child-training and look at the world like the adults we’ve become.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 19:40

"Central Bank Observers Take Note": HSBC Warns "Weak Bull" Commodity Run Has Begun

Commodity prices provide a real-time snapshot of the global economy through spot prices, which are essentially high-frequency data about the current supply and demand environment. These prices are key components in measuring inflation, which has shown signs of easing over the past year. However, a recent surge in the Bloomberg Commodity Index and signs of a reacceleration in US inflation data are troubling for Fed chair Powell. 

HSBC's Paul Bloxham and Jamie Culling asked clients in a note: "Have commodity prices past the trough?" 

Their answer, very simply, "It seems likely."

"Global commodity prices have picked up in recent weeks and could be past the trough," the analysts said, noting an emerging "weak" upward global industrial cycle has materialized. They continued: 

On the demand side, 'green shoots' in the global industrial cycle are becoming more apparent. On the supply-side, geopolitical factors are playing an increasingly disruptive role in the ongoing 'super-squeeze.' 

At a deeper level, real commodity prices have already fallen back to their long-run average – that is, the relative prices of commodities to other goods and services are now not unusually high. 

So, even if commodity prices only rise in line with other prices from here, they would be passed their trough. 

The analysts warned their new machine learning commodity cycle tool is forecasting a "Weak Bull" run, indicating, "If the trough has passed, the recent disinflationary force from falling commodity prices may be done. Central bank observers should take note." 

The timing of HSBC's "Weak Bull" commodity run comes as inflation is reaccelerating in the US. Last week's March CPI data dump showed a stronger-than-expected 3.5% YoY print, an uptick from the 3.2% YoY rise in February. 

Summing up the latest inflation report... 

The hot inflation print has pushed rate traders to price in the first 25bps of cuts between September and November. Initially, rate traders were pricing in March cuts.  

Hotter-than-expected inflation puts upward pressure on rates and borrowing costs with higher risks of derailing Biden's reelection odds as Bidenomics fails. 

The reacceleration of inflation has Larry MacDonald of The Bear Traps Report warning, "We're only one event away from a 1970-style stagflation explosion." 

Could the return of the mid-70s inflation storm result from an escalation of the Israel-Iran war where Brent crude soars past $100bbl? 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 19:20

Los Angeles Mayor Urges 'More Fortunate' Residents To Help Fund Housing For Homeless

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has suggested that “more fortunate” residents help fund housing for the homeless as part of a new campaign to tackle the city’s ongoing homelessness crisis.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass speaks during a press conference to announce new efforts to curb recent retail thefts at City Hall in Los Angeles, Calif., on Aug. 17, 2023. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

Ms. Bass, a Democrat, announced the “LA4LA campaign,” which she said would speed up the creation of affordable housing for homeless individuals, during her State of the City address on April 15.

The mayor called on “fortunate Angelenos”—including business leaders, philanthropic organizations, and others—to help the city “acquire more properties, lower the cost of capital, and speed up housing” for the homeless population under the new program.

However, Ms. Bass didn’t provide further details regarding the specifics of the campaign, such as how much money business leaders and organizations should donate or how exactly the campaign will work.

“We have brought the public sector together and now we must prevail on the humanity and generosity of the private sector,” the mayor said. “LA4LA can be a Sea Change for Los Angeles–an unprecedented partnership to confront this emergency … an example of disrupting the status quo to build a new system to save lives.

“We will not hide people. Instead, we will house people,” she continued. “This means committing to the goal of preventing and ending homelessness—not hiding—not managing—but ending homelessness—with a new strategy and a new system that urgently lifts people from the street, and that surrounds them with the support and housing they need to never go back.”

Bass Touts ‘Inside Safe’ Program

During her address, the mayor touted her efforts to move homeless Angelenos out of short-term housing, including hotels and motel rooms, and into apartments under her “Inside Safe” program.

That program, which initially launched in December 2022 when Ms. Bass declared a state of emergency on homelessness, has seen roughly 2,500 homeless individuals taken off the street and placed into interim housing, according to the mayor’s office.

A total of 440 people have also been placed into permanent housing under the program, as per her office.

However, roughly 613 of those who took part in the program have returned to homelessness, according to the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority. Another 42 have been incarcerated, and 38 have died, as per the agency.

Ms. Bass said Inside Safe is “our proactive rejection of a status quo that left unhoused Angelenos to wait–and die–outside, in encampments until permanent housing was built.”

Budget Deficit Woes

Still, the mayor acknowledged that more than 46,000 people in Los Angeles currently have no home and stressed that motel rooms rented out on a nightly basis are increasingly adding up at a time when the city is already struggling under a burgeoning budget deficit.

Los Angeles is currently facing a projected $467 million shortfall, driven by increased spending and lower-than-expected revenues.

Ms. Bass noted that the homelessness crisis—along with the continued opioid crisis that is fueling fentanyl overdose deaths—has affected residents of Los Angeles both mentally and financially, forcing them to “pay the cost of the thousands and thousands of fire, paramedic and police calls.”

The ongoing issues plaguing the city are also driving away business and tourism, she noted, highlighting the fact that many companies are fleeing the city out of safety concerns.

“I just will not accept this–and our city cannot afford to accept this. That is why we are disrupting, challenging, and rebuilding the system. Inside Safe and our overall approach is evolving and will continue to evolve,” the mayor said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 19:00

Doug Casey On The New American Dream: "You'll Own Nothing and Be Happy"

Via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: According to a recent study by Investopedia, the classic middle-class American Dream now costs over $3.4 million.

That’s the estimated lifetime cost of marriage, two children, cars, homes, healthcare, education, and retirement. It’s now entirely out of reach for many Americans.

What do you make of this? How did this happen?

Doug Casey: The fact is, despite the fact that his standard of living has been slipping over the past 50 years, the average American today lives much better and longer than a king during pre-industrial times. There were never any guarantees that Americans would live in the lap of luxury for their entire lives.

We got to this high standard of living for two reasons. One, people tended to produce more than they consumed and saved the difference. And two, technology has been improving at almost the rate of Moore’s law for the last 200 years.

However, there’s no guarantee that either of these fonts of progress will continue, especially since savings are being wiped out by the destruction of the dollar. A lack of savings means there won’t be a capital pool to finance further advances in technology.

But there are other serious things at work, termites eating away at the foundations of civilization. It’s become customary for Americans to think that it’s okay for some people to live their entire lives without producing at all and to live at the expense of others. A lot of the country is on welfare. And many more are buried in consumer debt, which means they’re either living off the capital others have saved in the past, or they’re mortgaging their own futures.

On top of that, since about 1980, the main export of the US hasn’t been Boeings or soybeans; it’s been dollars. Foreigners have accepted those paper dollars in exchange for real wealth. They’re really just another form of debt. At some point—soon—they’ll repatriate them in exchange for titles to land and companies.

Capital is also being destroyed by the constant wars that the US fights against trivial countries on the other side of the world.

The fact is that our institutions, from corporations to academia to government, have become corrupt, ineffectual, and bloated. The Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us that, in the physical world, things inevitably degenerate over time. That’s also true in the world of human action. In general, as any institution gets old, it winds down. That’s true of the US, and it’s apparent to everyone—at least anyone outside of the Washington Beltway.

International Man: As the American middle class continues to shrink, it seems the “New American Dream” is to merely get by and make ends meet.

People will have to rent instead of own. They may not be able to afford kids, pets, ribeye steaks, or retirement. They’ll have to take on a lot more debt.

The “New American Dream” looks more like the WEF’s “you’ll own nothing and be happy.”

What’s your take?

Doug Casey: It’s rather shocking that in a traditionally middle-class society like the US, that the “one percenters”—typically those wired to the State and major corporations—now own about one-third of the total wealth.

What’s even more shocking is that the bottom half of society only owns 2% of the country’s wealth. That kind of an imbalance makes for instability. No wonder it’s said that the average guy can’t lay his hands on even $500 cash if there’s an emergency. No wonder a criminal like Klaus Schwab can promote his “You’ll own nothing and be happy” meme and not be hung from a lamp pole— a lot of people now feel they’d be better off in that kind of world.

Increasingly, the wealth of the country is owned by corporations and their top management. It used to be said that “What’s good for General Motors is good for America.” I used to believe that because General Motors actually created cars, and that was good. But we’ve devolved. GM and other major corporations have become defacto arms of the State. Taxes, staggering regulations, subsidies, and bailouts have destroyed free-market capitalism.

The capitalist system in the US is long gone. We’ve devolved into classical Mussolini-style fascism, which is to say, State corporatism, where corporations and the State work hand-in-glove.

It’s euphemistically called a public-private “partnership.” The people in government and the people in top corporate levels scratch each other’s backs and reinforce each other’s positions. They feed each other power and money. This makes for a highly politicized society, where connections, not production, are what count.

For instance, in the last election, $14 billion was spent on campaign spending to get the hoi polloi to vote for one party or another. But only a fifth of that money came from small donors—the rest from the wealthy and corporations. Of course, the rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer as our highly politicized society degenerates.

International Man: Many people look back on how they viewed the future and how it was portrayed in movies. Many thought we would have flying cars by now, among other futuristic luxuries.

Instead, we have a declining standard of living, and people look back on the good old days.

Where do you think this trend is headed?

Doug Casey: We’re heading in the wrong direction at an accelerating rate because there’s been a breakdown of moral fiber in society. People, in general, no longer understand what’s right and what’s wrong—or what’s good and what’s evil. They’re taking less responsibility for their individual lives and what happens around them.

We’ve gone from a high-trust society, where you didn’t need to lock your car or your front door, to a low-trust society, where everybody is constantly observed, and security is of critical importance.

At the same time, the country has generally gone from having low time preferences and being future-oriented to high time preferences; “I want it all, and I want it now.” They’re not as future-oriented as they once were.

Going back to the question of moral fiber breakdown, the economic observer Thorstein Veblen coined the phrase “conspicuous consumption.” People wanted to show off expensive cars and clothes to advertise to other people that they were more successful. But now, because of all the debt in society, anyone can have a nice car. And nobody even cares about nice clothes anymore; everybody wears the equivalent of T-shirts and jeans.

The trend setters have moved from owning and displaying frivolous goods to displaying frivolous ideas—like Wokeism. Everybody is adopting those ideas, to show that they’re hip, in-the-know, and part of the cognoscenti. In the past, adopting the conspicuous consumption lifestyles of their betters would only make them poor. Adopting these degenerate ideas makes them stupid and immoral—which is much worse.

International Man: What advice do you have for struggling middle-class people who are about to be kicked down to the lower class?

Doug Casey: First and most important, don’t go to college unless you need a STEM degree—Science, Technology, Engineering, or Math.

Going to college today does nothing but misallocate four critically important years of your life, permanently indebt you, and corrupt your mind with the idiotic ideas that Marxist professors and administrations cram down students’ throats. Educate yourself. Read constantly.

Next, work to become self-employed, not to “get a job.” You don’t want to rely on a job that somebody else gives you. And save your money—but don’t save in fiat dollars. Save in gold. When you have sufficient savings, learn to speculate and invest.

International Man: As you’ve noted, The Greater Depression is a period in which there will be a significant decline in the general standard of living.

Is there any way to make lemonade out of these lemons?

Doug Casey: We’re well into what I’ve long called The Greater Depression. But I’d point out that most of the real wealth in the world will still exist - it’s just going to be owned by different people.

The opportunity will exist for nimble entrepreneurs and speculators to do well, even as most people’s standard of living drops. But the big question is: For how long will the societal trend that we’re now on continue going down?

When Rome collapsed over a period of several hundred years, living well and peaceably got harder and harder as Europe entered the Dark Ages. Even if you had a lot of money, it really didn’t do you that much good. That’s why it’s important to preserve what’s left of the idea of America.

*  *  *

Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the trajectory of this trend in motion. The best you can do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. Most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare… How will you protect your savings in the event of a currency crisis? This just-released video will show you exactly how. Click here to watch it now.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 18:20

The Purpose Of War According To George Orwell (1984)

Some food for thought from George Orwell's '1984'...

Does anything really ever change? (emphasis ours)

The primary aim of modern warfare is to use up the products of the machine without raising the general standard of living.

Ever since the end of the nineteenth century, the problem of what to do with the surplus of consumption goods has been latent in industrial society. From the moment when the machine first made its appearance it was clear to all thinking people that the need for human drudgery, and therefore to a great extent for human inequality, had disappeared. If the machine were used deliberately for that end, hunger, overwork, dirt, illiteracy, and disease could be eliminated within a few generations. And in fact, without being used for any such purpose, but by a sort of automatic process — by producing wealth which it was sometimes impossible not to distribute — the machine did raise the living standards of the average human being very greatly over a period of about fifty years at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries.

But it was also clear that an all-round increase in wealth threatened the destruction — indeed, in some sense was the destruction — of a hierarchical society. In a world in which everyone worked short hours, had enough to eat, lived in a house with a bathroom and a refrigerator, and possessed a motor-car or even an aeroplane, the most obvious and perhaps the most important form of inequality would already have disappeared. If it once became general, wealth would confer no distinction. It was possible, no doubt, to imagine a society in which wealth, in the sense of personal possessions and luxuries, should be evenly distributed, while power remained in the hands of a small privileged caste.

But in practice such a society could not long remain stable.

For if leisure and security were enjoyed by all alike, the great mass of human beings who are normally stupefied by poverty would become literate and would learn to think for themselves; and when once they had done this, they would sooner or later realize that the privileged minority had no function, and they would sweep it away.

In the long run, a hierarchical society was only possible on a basis of poverty and ignorance.

To return to the agricultural past, as some thinkers about the beginning of the twentieth century dreamed of doing, was not a practicable solution. It conflicted with the tendency towards mechanization which had become quasi-instinctive throughout almost the whole world, and moreover, any country which remained industrially backward was helpless in a military sense and was bound to be dominated, directly or indirectly, by its more advanced rivals.

Nor was it a satisfactory solution to keep the masses in poverty by restricting the output of goods. This happened to a great extent during the final phase of capitalism, roughly between 1920 and 1940.

The economy of many countries was allowed to stagnate, land went out of cultivation, capital equipment was not added to, great blocks of the population were prevented from working and kept half alive by State charity. But this, too, entailed military weakness, and since the privations it inflicted were obviously unnecessary, it made opposition inevitable.

The problem was how to keep the wheels of industry turning without increasing the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed. And in practice the only way of achieving this was by continuous warfare.

The essential act of war is destruction, not necessarily of human lives, but of the products of human labour.

War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking in the depths of the sea, materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent.

Even when weapons of war are not actually destroyed, their manufacture is still a convenient way of expending labour power without producing anything that can be consumed. A Floating Fortress, for example, has locked up in it the labour that would build several hundred cargo-ships. Ultimately it is scrapped as obsolete, never having brought any material benefit to anybody, and with further enormous labours another Floating Fortress is built.

In principle the war effort is always so planned as to eat up any surplus that might exist after meeting the bare needs of the population. In practice the needs of the population are always underestimated, with the result that there is a chronic shortage of half the necessities of life; but this is looked on as an advantage.

It is deliberate policy to keep even the favoured groups somewhere near the brink of hardship, because a general state of scarcity increases the importance of small privileges and thus magnifies the distinction between one group and another.

By the standards of the early twentieth century, even a member of the Inner Party lives an austere, laborious kind of life. Nevertheless, the few luxuries that he does enjoy his large, well-appointed flat, the better texture of his clothes, the better quality of his food and drink and tobacco, his two or three servants, his private motor-car or helicopter—set him in a different world from a member of the Outer Party, and the members of the Outer Party have a similar advantage in comparison with the submerged masses whom we call ’the proles’. The social atmosphere is that of a besieged city, where the possession of a lump of horseflesh makes the difference between wealth and poverty.

And at the same time the consciousness of being at war, and therefore in danger, makes the handing-over of all power to a small caste seem the natural, unavoidable condition of survival...

...

...war is waged by each ruling group against its own subjects, and the object of the war is not to make or prevent conquests of territory, but to keep the structure of society intact.

The very word 'war', therefore, has become misleading. It would probably be accurate to say that by becoming continuous war has ceased to exist.

...

War is Peace.

In short - the purpose of war is to keep the ruling class in power while the lower classes remain powerless.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 18:00

MSNBC's Joy Reid Suggests Trump Trial Is A Form Of Racial Revenge

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

MSNBC’s Joy Reid suggested that the politically-motivated prosecution of Donald Trump is a “wonderfully poetic” form of racial revenge.

Reid made the comments after jury selection began for Trump’s criminal trial in New York, where he is charged with falsifying business records to conceal a hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.

“For me, there is something wonderfully poetic about the fact that the first person to criminally prosecute Donald Trump is a black Harvard grad,” Reid said Tuesday on MSNBC.

“And a black woman is doing the same exact thing in Georgia. And a black woman forced you to pay a $175 million dollar fine,” she added.

Joy Reid: "For me, there is something wonderfully poetic about the fact that the first person to criminally prosecute Donald Trump is a black Harvard grad. And a black woman is doing the same exact thing in Georgia. And a black woman forced you to pay a $175 million dollar fine.… pic.twitter.com/Yo0S6lvZ7V

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) April 16, 2024

“Donald Trump is being held to account by the very multicultural, multiracial democracy that he’s trying to dismantle,” Reid boasted. “Go DEI. My DEIs are bringing it home.”

In other words, over and above whether Trump is guilty or innocent of what he is being charged with, the fact that black people are involved is some kind of righteous revenge.

Reid is essentially saying the quiet part out loud, that the prosecution of Trump is being driven by deranged, race-obsessed leftists and not by the actual evidence.

“It was always about racial vengeance but it’s nice when they say it out loud,” commented Auron McIntyre.

It was always about racial vengeance but it’s nice when they say it out loud https://t.co/FmcVp9ukLU

— Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) April 16, 2024

As we previously highlighted, following news of the death of OJ Simpson, a CNN commentator and former Obama advisor suggested that the infamous ‘not guilty’ verdict was a victory for African-Americans because of slavery and the fact Simpson was charged with killing two white people.

They’re really not hiding it anymore.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 17:40

Senate Saves Mayorkas From Impeachment Threat

Senate Democrats pulled DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas's ass out of the fire on Wednesday, voting to dismiss two articles of impeachment and shutting down the possibility of a lengthy Senate trial which would shine a spotlight on the border crisis he helped to create.

Wednesday's decision marked the first time in 225 years since the Senate voted to immediately dismiss impeachment charges approved by the House vs. holding a floor trial or referring the matter to a special counsel for review.

"The charges brought against Secretary Mayorkas fail to meet the high standards of high crimes and misdemeanors. To validate this gross abuse by the House would be a grave mistake and could set a dangerous precedent for the future," warned Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who said that the House had sent over "the least legitimate, least substantive and most politicized impeachment trial ever in the history of the United States."

Mayorkas was recently revealed to have been on the board of a Soros-funded organization that's been encouraging illegal immigrants to vote for President Biden this fall.

Schumer, who isn't affected by the flood of illegal migrants that are devastating low-income Americans, moved to quash the two impeachment charges immediately after first-term Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) objected to Schumer's unanimous consent request to give senators time to debate the trial procedure and to consider resolutions brought by Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Ted Cruz (R-TX) to either hold a full trial or send the impeachment to a special committee for review.

Schmitt was protesting Schumer’s plan to eventually move to dismiss the impeachment after defeating the motions to hold a trial or refer it to committee.

Cruz tried to block Schumer’s move to dismiss the charges by offering a motion to send the Senate into a private session to debate the constitutionality of the impeachment, but Democrats voted it down.

Republicans offered several other motions to delay Schumer’s bid to avoid a trial, including motions to adjourn the proceedings to a later date and to table the Democratic leader’s objections. All those efforts failed on party-line votes. -The Hill

The Senate voted along party lines, ruling that the articles of impeachment were unconstitutional because they did not meet the standard of high crimes and misdemeanors - with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voting 'present' on the first article, rather than joining her Republican colleagues who voted against the articles being unconstitutional.

In February, Mayorkas became the first cabinet official impeached by the House in over 150 years.

If Sec. Mayorkas will not be held accountable for refusing to follow federal law, why should ANY American be accountable for refusing to follow federal law?

The Senate sets a double standard for Americans.

You will reap what you sow. https://t.co/FX6B3u6QqC

— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) April 17, 2024

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 17:20

Federal Judge Clears Facebook's Zuckerberg Of Personal Liability In 25 'Social Media Addiction' Cases

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has ruled Meta Platforms, Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg will not face personal liability in 25 legal complaints alleging his social media platforms, Facebook and Instagram, have harmed children.

Meta is facing dozens of separate legal complaints alleging the company failed to sufficiently warn adolescent users about the potentially addictive nature of their social media platforms. Those various complaints were consolidated into a multi-district litigation (MDL) currently being handled by the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. Twenty-five of the complaints sought to hold Mr. Zuckerberg personally liable for the harm allegedly caused by his social media platforms, but U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a ruling on Monday granting his motion to dismiss the cases.

Plaintiffs in the cases had argued that Mr. Zuckerberg had a specific duty to disclose to users the potentially addictive nature of his platforms due to his public stature as the head of Meta and his public statements. The plaintiffs asserted Mr. Zuckerberg repeated partial representations of Meta’s safety practices through numerous public appearances. The plaintiffs argued Mr. Zuckerberg’s alleged failure to make more fulsome public claims about his company made him liable for fraudulent and negligent misrepresentation by omission.

But Judge Rogers said the plaintiffs could not rely on Mr. Zuckerberg’s comparative knowledge about Meta’s products to establish he personally owed such a duty to each plaintiff.

Such a ruling, she said, would create “a duty to disclose for any individual recognizable to the public.”

“The Court will not countenance such a novel approach here,” she wrote.

Judge Rogers ultimately dismissed plaintiffs’ claims of fraudulent misrepresentation by omission or nondisclosure under Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin state laws. She further dismissed plaintiffs’ claims of negligent misrepresentation by omission that was cited under the laws of Arizona, Connecticut, Colorado, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Plaintiffs Can Amend Claims Against Zuckerberg

Judge Rogers’ decision clears Mr. Zuckerberg of personal liability in these cases for the time being. In her Monday decision, the federal judge granted the plaintiffs a limited opportunity to revise their claims against the billionaire social media mogul.

“Given the insufficient briefing, the Court cannot conclude that plaintiffs’ nascent theory of corporate officer liability is fatally flawed,” Judge Rogers wrote.

The federal judge said the plaintiffs in the 25 complaints that sought to hold Mr. Zuckerberg personally liable could file one consolidated addendum revising their existing allegations and laying out any additional allegations they may try to assert against Mr. Zuckerberg in his role as Meta CEO.

While Mr. Zuckerberg is currently clear of any personal liability in the MDL lawsuit, his company remains a defendant in the ongoing litigation.

In addition to naming Meta Platform’s Inc. as a defendant, the plaintiffs’ claims also seek to hold Meta’s payment processing wing Meta Payments Inc. liable. WhatsApp, an instant messaging and calling application owned by Meta is also listed as a separate defendant in the case.

The sprawling litigation goes beyond Meta to target other apps that are not owned by Mr. Zuckerberg.

TikTok and its Chinese parent company ByteDance are also listed as defendants, as are Alphabet (which operates the Google search engine and YouTube), Snap Inc. (which operates Snapchat), the Discord instant messaging and call service, and the online gaming platform Roblox.

The lawsuits say the children suffered physical, mental, and emotional harm from social media use, including anxiety, depression, and even suicide. The various complaints seek damages and a halt to harmful practices allegedly adopted by the defendant technology companies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 17:00

IMF Warns Biden's Fiscal Profligacy Poses "Significant Risks" To Global Economy 'In Great Election Year'

The IMF said the the quiet part out loud today (admittedly wrapped in 100s of pages of PhD-ese) in their benchmark Fiscal Monitor this morning: pointing out that America's recent economic performance is partially the result of the country's unsustainable borrowing, and that the US' massive fiscal deficits have stoked inflation and pose "significant risks" for the global economy.

“The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability,” the IMF wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook. They added that: "Fiscal policy developments in major economies, notably in the United States, have implications for global financing conditions."

The IMF said the US had exhibited “remarkably large fiscal slippages”, with the fiscal deficit hitting 8.8 per cent of GDP last year - more than double the 4.1 per cent deficit figure recorded for 2022, calculating that 'Bidenomics' (and its Inflation Reduction Act) had contributed 0.5 percentage points to core inflation (due to its fiscal profligacy).

Who could have seen that coming?

The fund further said in its Fiscal Monitor report that it expected the US to record a deficit of 7.1 per cent next year - more than three times the average for other advanced economies. It also raised concerns over Chinese government debt as Beijing copes with weak demand and a housing crisis.

The US and China were among four countries the fund named that "critically need to take policy action to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues."

The others were the UK and Italy.

Rampant spending by the US and China in particular could "have profound effects for the global economy and pose significant risks for baseline fiscal projections in other economies," the IMF said.

Furthermore, The IMF (rather too honestly) noted that things could get even worse as it's a massive election year and politicans like to spend money they don't have to buy votes (well, that's our translation of their findings that deficits in election years tend to exceed forecasts by 0.4 percentage points of GDP, compared to non-election years).

"The risks of fiscal slippages are particularly acute given that 2024 is what is being called the 'Great Election Year': 88 economies or economic areas representing more than half of the world’s population and GDP have already held or will hold elections during the year," says The IMF.

"Support for increased government spending has grown across the political spectrum over the past several decades, making this year especially challenging, as empirical evidence shows that fiscal policy tends to be looser, and slippages larger, during election years."

Finally, we note that IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that the US's fiscal position was "of particular concern", suggesting it could complicate the Fed's attempts to return inflation to its 2% goal.

“It raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy,” he said.

“Something will have to give.”

"Something" indeed, Monsieur!

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 16:40

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release March existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, April 18th at 10:00AM ET. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million in February.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.23 million SAAR for March.
...
And a table of March sales.

In March, sales in these markets were down 9.7% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 1.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales in most of these markets are down compared to 2019.

This is a year-over-year decrease NSA for these early reporting markets. However, there were two fewer working days in March 2024 compared to March 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted will be higher year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.
...
More local markets will release data after the NAR release tomorrow!

There is much more in the article.

AI, Gold, & Nuclear War

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

So-called artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm. Meanwhile, gold has shot up like a rocket over the past couple of months.

In mid-February, gold was trading at $1,990. Two months later, gold is trading above $2,400 — a $410 gain in just two months.

So here’s a question:

Is there a connection between AI and gold?

It seems like an odd question.

But as it turns out, the answer is yes. And surprisingly, there has been for decades. It involves the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

In the early 1980s, the KGB was deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear first strike by the United States. At the time, Yuri Andropov was head of the KGB.

Andropov’s fear of a nuclear first strike by the U.S. was based in part on the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan and Reagan’s plan to install Pershing II intermediate-range missiles in Europe.

Those missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads and could strike the Soviet Union within minutes of being launched. This put Soviet nuclear forces on a hair-trigger alert. They adopted a “launch on warning” posture.

This means that as soon as credible evidence of a planned first strike was discovered, the Soviet Union would launch its own first strike to avoid destruction of its forces.

The irony was that the U.S. had no actual plans to launch a first strike, but the Soviet Union didn’t know that. Reagan’s speeches about the “evil empire” did nothing to calm Soviet concerns.

AI and Nuclear Readiness

In response, the Soviets developed a primitive (by today’s standards) AI system called VRYAN. That’s a Russian acronym for: sudden nuclear missile attack.

VRYAN took about 40,000 military, economic and political inputs and computed the relative strength of the Soviet Union compared with the United States expressed as a percentage output. The model used a value of 100% for equivalence of the USSR to the U.S.

The Soviet leadership was comfortable that the U.S. would not launch a nuclear first strike if the USSR could maintain a value of 60%, although they viewed 70% as providing a more comfortable margin.

A VRYAN output of 40% was considered the critical threshold at which the U.S. might feel it could launch a first strike with acceptable risk that the Soviets would not be able to mount a successful second strike.

VRYAN output values were in steady decline in the dangerous period from 1981–1984 (in 1984, the VRYAN output had declined to 45%).

The VRYAN AI system relied on by the KGB and the Soviet Politburo was an important factor in the Soviet decision in 1981 to vastly increase intelligence collections aimed at detecting U.S. preparations for a first strike.

Close Call

This intelligence collection effort was complicated to the point of extreme danger by the fact that the U.S. and NATO were conducting a war game in late 1983, code-named Able Archer 83. This war game was to practice a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union.

It turned out that the U.S. was rehearsing a nuclear first strike at the same exact time that the KGB was looking for evidence of a nuclear first strike. Able Archer 83 provided the KGB with more than enough reason to suspect the U.S. was indeed preparing for a first strike under cover of a war game.

VRYAN’s AI output on relative U.S. strength was compounded by massive U.S. intelligence failures regarding Soviet intentions. U.S. intelligence analysts assumed that the future would resemble the past, and that Soviet alerts were really propaganda designed to halt the U.S. deployment of Pershing II intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe.

U.S. intelligence analysts were also guilty of what’s called mirror imaging: the belief that because you know your own intentions, your opponents must share your view. In this case, the U.S. assumed that because they had no intention to launch a first strike, the Soviets must have understood that intention and would therefore have no cause for concern.

In fact, the Soviets had the opposite view based in part on VRYAN AI output.

The world came extremely close to World War III and a nuclear holocaust as a result of this sequence of events and misperception of intentions. It was only when one U.S. general decided not to escalate in the face of Soviet first strike preparations that both sides deescalated, and the crisis eventually receded.

The information above wasn’t fully understood by either side at the time of the escalation. On the U.S. side, it wasn’t until the 1990 publication of a study entitled The Soviet War Scare by the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) that something like the full story was revealed.

Nuclear War Threats: Good For Gold

This study was originally classified above TOP SECRET. Most citizens assume that TOP SECRET is the highest level of classification. But there are secret access codes that limit circulation of certain documents even among those cleared with TOP SECRET access.

In the case of The Soviet War Scare, those restrictions had the code names UMBRA, GAMMA, ININTEL, NOFORN, NOCONTRACT, ORCON. I can’t discuss my own TOP SECRET clearances, but I can inform you that very few intelligence operatives would have been able to view the PFIAB report based on those restrictions.

So what does all this have to do with gold?

Buried inside The Soviet War Scare was this passage about the U.S. assessment of KGB collection requirements related to a potential nuclear war:

VRYAN Collection Requirements – Throughout the early 1980s, VRYAN requirements were the No. 1 (and urgent) collection priority for Soviet intelligence… They were tasked to collect:… monitoring of the flow of money and gold on Wall Street as well as the movement of high-grade jewelry, collections of rare paintings and similar items. (This was regarded as useful geostrategic information.) (Emphasis added)

And there it is! The U.S. assessed that the KGB tracked the movement of gold as a leading indicator of nuclear attack.

I didn’t find this completely surprising. From 2004–2010, I was co-director of a CIA effort called Project Prophesy that looked at capital markets activity as an early warning of an enemy attack.

Gold was one of the valuable assets that was on our list of items to track. The idea was that if a general or political leader had advance information about an attack, they’d convert their wealth to gold in safekeeping in order to financially survive the fallout.

The bottom line is that this intelligence reporting and AI system are not ancient history. Today, the world is closer to nuclear war than at any time since the Able Archer scare in 1983. Gold is once again on the move, having risen from $1,830 per ounce on Oct. 5, 2023, to over $2,400 today. That’s a 31% gain in six months.

Is this a coincidence? Hardly. A close correlation of huge gains in gold with serious threats of nuclear war is exactly what one should expect.

Unfortunately, those threats of nuclear war are not going away soon. One need only look at the Iranian attack on Israel this past weekend and the possibilities of further escalation.

There are also situations in Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Gaza, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal revealing that the world is a more dangerous place than it has been for decades.

That’s bad news for the world but good news for gold investors. The rally we’ve seen in the past six months is just getting started.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/17/2024 - 16:20