Individual Economists

US Fentanyl Crisis Is A 'CCP-Run Operation', Says Peter Schweizer

Zero Hedge -

US Fentanyl Crisis Is A 'CCP-Run Operation', Says Peter Schweizer

Authored by Terri Wu and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Three months after the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned a Chinese mafia leader for fentanyl trafficking, he received an award in Beijing.

Peter Schweizer in March 2022. (NTD)

In March 2021, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Overseas United Working Committee recognized Wan Kuok Koi, also known as “Broken Tooth,” as a “patriotic businessman” and the “chief representative” of all international Hongmen associations. Hongmen is synonymous with triads, or Chinese transnational organized crime syndicates, to many Chinese.

The awarding entity is a CCP United Front organization and a platform under the China Association for Science and Technology. It also pushes China’s flagship infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), worldwide. According to the Treasury Department notice, Mr. Wan has established a security company protecting BRI investments in Southeast Asia.

In a recent interview with EpochTV’s American Thought Leaders (ATL), investigative writer Peter Schweizer cited Mr. Wan’s case as an example of the CCP’s take on the United States’ fentanyl crisis.

The notion that ‘oh, China’s trying very hard, but they can’t fix this’ is an absolute joke in my mind,” he said.

In addition, the author of a new book titled “Blood Money: Why the Powerful Turn a Blind Eye While China Kills Americans” told ATL that the U.S. fentanyl crisis is a “CCP-run operation.”

“The drug cartels are certainly involved, but they’re the junior partner,” Mr. Schweizer said, adding that the CCP is present at “every link of the chain.”

The Chinese production of fentanyl precursors is widely known. However, Mr. Schweizer’s research also shows that China provides pill-pressing machines at cost for fentanyl-laced fake pill production, distributes the synthetic opioid in the United States, facilitates the Mexican drug cartels’ financial transactions, and provides secure communication systems to cartels so they can bypass detection by U.S. law enforcement.

Currently, fentanyl overdose is the leading cause of death for Americans ages 18 to 45. The deadly drug was responsible for about 75,000 deaths, or 200 per day, in 2022. Compared with 3,105 deaths in 2013, the death toll increased 23-fold.

Facing this crisis, which has been growing exponentially, the U.S. government has yet to come up with an effective solution. In Mr. Schweizer’s view, U.S. leaders’ inaction is a significant factor.

He documented in his book how senior U.S. leaders, albeit initially voicing concerns about China’s involvement in fentanyl trafficking, have remained largely silent on the issue.

One of those leaders is President Joe Biden.

At a Senate hearing in 1992, the then-chair of the Judiciary Committee warned that “China is poised to become the lynchpin of the heroin trade.”

Then-Sen. Biden also criticized the then-Bush administration’s lack of action on confronting China, saying that “the truth is that the cooperation between the United States and China in fighting drugs is limited, at best, and as is its course, the administration is turning a blind eye to China’s renegade behavior.”

Yet, the Biden administration has been taking a similar approach: touting its counternarcotics cooperation with China, which relies on voluntary domestic control measures. CCP leader Xi Jinping didn’t keep similar past promises that he made to former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump.

Ambassador Robert Lighthizer (L); Peter Schweizer, president of the Government Accountability Institute (C); and Michael Pillsbury, senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation (R); at The Heritage Foundation's Leadership Summit in National Harbor, Md., on April 20, 2023. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

Different than heroin or cocaine, fentanyl takes the lives of people who mostly take the drug unknowingly. A New York University study in 2023 showed that a majority of the people who took fentanyl didn’t intend to do so.

Therefore, Mr. Schweizer thinks calling the fentanyl crisis a drug problem is missing the mark.

To him, it’s “extremely convenient” for the Biden administration to treat fentanyl as a “drug addiction problem, rather than what it is—poisoning,” he said.

“It absolves you of trying to confront the CCP on this because you’re essentially saying this is a human nature problem in the United States.”

In Mr. Schweizer’s view, the first family’s financial ties to China prohibited them from confronting the communists to reign in the Chinese fentanyl actors—a move that could be effective “overnight” if CCP leader Xi Jinping wanted it to be, Mr. Schweizer said.

The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment by press time.

Mr. Schweizer’s findings don’t stop at the fentanyl crisis, which he sees as a part of the CCP’s broader approach of “disintegration warfare,” aimed at bringing down the United States by attacking its “soft underbelly” regarding Americans’ politics, economics, and psychology.

In the ATL interview, he also talked about the CCP’s links to activities that sow social discord by inflaming racial and gender divisions in U.S. society and “dumbing down the West” with TikTok.

The interview premieres on April 18.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 23:20

Major War Just Narrowly Averted & Biden Already Mulls $1BN+ In New Arms For Israel

Zero Hedge -

Major War Just Narrowly Averted & Biden Already Mulls $1BN+ In New Arms For Israel

President Biden is mulling his first new major arms sales to Israel since the unprecedented Iranian missile and drone attack which targeted the country last Saturday.

Though the world just narrowly avoided witnessing a major regional war explode with Thursday night's Israeli 'limited' retaliation on the Islamic Republic, the White House apparently thinks the 'answer' is to pump Israel with yet more and more weapons and ammo, to the tune of $1+ billion.

AFP via Getty Images

"The Biden administration is considering more than $1 billion in new weapons deals for Israel including tank ammunition, military vehicles and mortar rounds, U.S. officials said, at a time of heightened scrutiny of the use of American-made weapons in the war in Gaza," Wall Street Journal reports Friday.

"The proposed weapons transfers—which would be in addition to those in a military aid deal currently before the Congress—would be among the largest to Israel since it invaded Gaza in response to Hamas’s attack that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, on Oct. 7," the report continues.

This also comes while the administration has been talking out of both sides of its mouth - on the one hand condemning the immense civilian death toll in Gaza, and on the other vowing to remain firm in its "ironclad commitment" to Israel's defense.

The US administration has time and again said it has been urging Israel against escalating with Iran. The White House has also said it did not "greenlight" Israel's Thursday overnight attack, which reportedly targeted radar sites in Isfahan, which is home to a key Iranian nuclear facility.

As for the Gaza operation, Biden has still sought to press Israel to hold off on a Rafah ground offensive. And yet, the IDF is more ensconced in the Gaza Strip than ever. There are new reports of an Israeli military base being established in the heart of Gaza.

"Satellite images and photographs shared on social media show extensive development and construction at two outposts the Israel Defense Forces is building on the strategic road that divides the Gaza Strip into two," reports Haaretz.

"The army calls the construction of these outposts in what it calls the 'Netzarim Corridor' as a long-term achievement. The whole corridor is referred to as something that is here to stay," the report indicates.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 23:00

NIH Refuses To Release Details Of COVID-19 Vaccine Royalty Agreement

Zero Hedge -

NIH Refuses To Release Details Of COVID-19 Vaccine Royalty Agreement

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) is refusing to release additional information about an agreement it reached over a COVID-19 vaccine that has earned it at least $400 million.

Syringes of Moderna COVID-19 vaccines at a vaccination site in Los Angeles, on Feb. 16, 2021. (Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images)

The NIH declined to provide any materials in response to a Freedom of Information Act request from The Epoch Times.

The NIH withholds the entirety of the records as they are protected from release,” Gorka Garcia-Malene, an NIH officer, told The Epoch Times in a letter.

She cited an exemption outlined in the act that allows government agencies to partially or fully withhold information.

“In this case, exemption 3 incorporates 35 U.S.C. 209 (f), which reads in relevant part, ‘No Federal agency shall grant any license under a patent or patent application on a federally owned invention unless the person requesting the license has supplied the agency with a plan for development or marketing of the invention, except that any such plan shall be treated by the Federal agency as commercial and financial information obtained from a person and privileged and confidential and not subject to disclosure under section 552 of title 5,’” Ms. Garcia-Malene wrote.

Exemption 4 protects from disclosure trade secrets and commercial or financial information that is privileged and confidential,” she added.

In February 2023, Moderna announced that it had paid $400 million to the NIH and would make additional payments in the future as part of a licensing agreement for spike proteins used in the company’s COVID-19 vaccine. The Epoch Times obtained a copy of the contract, which confirmed the payment but redacted details of the future payments.

The Epoch Times then lodged a new request, seeking more details about the future payments, which are said to be based on how many COVID-19 vaccines are sold.

Ms. Garcia-Malene was responding to the new request.

James Love, director of the nonprofit Knowledge Ecology International, said the information should be made public.

“The NIH put out several press statements about the royalty dispute with Moderna, and they should not now claim it is some secret confidential information. And when hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake, the public interest in transparency is large too,” Mr. Love told The Epoch Times in an email.

There are a lot of NIH officials who resent transparency,” he added.

Inquiries to NIH spokespersons received away messages. Another request for comment, sent to one of the addresses provided in the away messages, was not returned.

The Epoch Times plans to appeal the NIH’s decision.

The NIH is one of several government agencies that receive royalty payments. Officials there have fought against attempts to acquire information on these payments, but in 2023, they disclosed some $325 million in royalties received between 2009 and 2020 after being sued.

Some experts say the payments, made to the agency and many of its top scientists, should be stopped.

“Neither the government nor any government employee should have any financial interest in a product for which the government has any involvement in licensing or promoting,“ Aaron Siri, managing partner of Siri & Glimstad LLP, told The Epoch Times in an email. ”It creates a dangerous conflict of interest.”

Move on BioNTech

The NIH is trying to obtain more money from COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers, according to recent filings.

BioNTech, Pfizer’s partner, said in the forms that the NIH served it with a notice of default because the NIH’s position is that BioNTech owes it money from COVID-19 vaccine sales.

BioNTech said it does not think it owes the NIH money but that “the ultimate outcome of these matters is uncertain and we cannot guarantee that our interpretation of these license agreements will prevail, or that we will not ultimately need to pay some or all of the royalty and other related amounts in dispute.”

The NIH did not return inquiries on the BioNTech filings.

The NIH has said previously it licensed its spike protein technology to BioNTech for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.

The Epoch Times has submitted a Freedom of Information Act request for the notice of default and related documents. Another request seeks information on whether the NIH has threatened or served Pfizer with a similar notice.

However much money the U.S. government receives in royalties will be much less than it has paid for the vaccines. The government has purchased hundreds of millions of shots, spending north of $30 billion.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 22:40

Housing Costs Are Crushing The American Middle Class, But How Can We Fix The Problem?

Zero Hedge -

Housing Costs Are Crushing The American Middle Class, But How Can We Fix The Problem?

In a new poll conducted by the Financial Times and Michigan's Ross School of Business, data shows there is a rare bipartisan agreement among Republicans and Democrats – Both sides believe that there are no housing advantages for the their political opponents and 70% of leftists, independents and conservatives alike rate affordability as one of their top three concerns.  In other words, Americans disagree on almost everything else, but they all recognize that most of them are in deep trouble when it comes to keeping a roof over their heads.

It's not just the math, it's the daily drain on people's pocketbooks that makes the problem so undeniable.

While the Biden Administration has spent the better part of the past year claiming that “inflation is going down” the reality has been far more bleak.  Surveys also show that 62% of homeowners has struggled at least periodically in the past year to make their mortgage payments and half of all renters also reported difficulty keeping up with monthly payments.  Over 22% skipped meals, 20% worked extra hours and 20% sold belongings to pay their housing costs on time.  

Disturbingly, 60% of poll respondents who make $100,000 or more per year also ranked housing costs at the top of their list of worries going into 2024.  Meaning, the crisis is spreading well beyond low income families and is dragging down the middle class. 

Low income, fixed income and middle-income renters are all facing challenges.  The market has become so disjointed that middle-income earners are finding it nearly impossible in most states to find homes in their price range, either to buy or to rent.

The average middle class income is $58,000 to $98,000 annually.  The average yearly cost of a family home rental is $25,000 ($2100 a month and nearly half of a single earner's income on the low end of the middle class average).  This greatly supersedes the common 30% rent rule which suggests that housing should not eat more than 30% of a renter's salary.  In 2019 the average monthly rent for a home was $1400; that's a 50% increase in the span of only four years.   

In order to safely afford the monthly median home rental price of $2100, a tenant must make over $6000 after taxes per month.  This cuts more than 50% of the population out of the market.  It's not just the cost of housing, though, there's also a major crisis in availability.    

Across the US  there is a shortage of at least 7.2 million homes affordable and available to renters with extremely low incomes. Extremely low-income renters face a shortage in every state and major metropolitan area.  Middle-income housing is vanishing; known as the “missing middle”, this portion of the market has been bought out and inflated to the point that elasticity in prices has been crushed right along with home buyers and renters.  That is to say, if you make less than six figures then you are quietly and quickly being strangled out of housing access.  

But how do we solve this ongoing problem?  Government rent controls won't do anything other than create a larger shortage by scaring property owners out of the rental market.  The Federal Reserve's (supposed) attempts to use higher interest rates to deflate the bubble without triggering consequences to the greater economy have utterly failed.  The conundrum is that the biggest property buyers in the country are supported by the central bank and thus they remain unaffected by higher rates.  

These are massive corporate buyers like Blackstone and Black Rock which invest in companies that buy US houses.  Black Rock by extension owns a stake in nearly 7% of the nation's total rental properties.  In 2023 corporate investors accounted for 27% of all family home purchases.  Even in the case of house flipping, corporate purchases on a large scale tend to drive up prices for everyone else.

Then there's the issue of illegal immigration which is adding millions of “asylum seekers” every year to the population; all of those people are looking for housing.  With government programs and subsidies helping them they eventually find that housing, allowing them to eat up another piece of the pie.  This leaves legal citizens in the lurch and struggling with low availability.  

Finally, there's general inflation.  Building costs for materials and labor have skyrocketed, meaning building new houses might help over many years to stabilize the market but it does not solve the immediate supply crisis and the inflation associated with it.  Americans don't need more expensive houses, they need more affordable houses.  

To alleviate the crippled market conditions today would most likely require state imposed moratoriums on corporate home purchases, a moratorium on foreign purchases, not to mention the direct removal of illegal migrants.  Taking action on all three would free up supply and at least give US citizens room to breath by cutting back on their top most expensive necessity.  At bottom things cannot continue the way they have been otherwise the system can and will break under the pressure, leading to even worse economic outcomes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 22:20

Breakfast Cereals Scrutinized For Pesticide That May Harm Reproduction

Zero Hedge -

Breakfast Cereals Scrutinized For Pesticide That May Harm Reproduction

Authored by Sina McCullough via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Imagine starting your day with a bowl of cereal that could be silently affecting your family’s health. Recent studies show that chlormequat, a pesticide linked to reproductive issues, has been found in popular breakfast cereals like Quaker Oats and Cheerios. As this substance infiltrates the American food supply, the potential risks to our health and future generations loom larger, raising urgent questions about the safety of our everyday food choices.

In a study published in the Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology on Feb. 15, 2024, researchers revealed alarming findings regarding the prevalence of chlormequat.

Chlormequat was detected in the urine of 4 out of 5 people or 80 percent of Americans tested. Additionally, 92 percent of oat-based foods tested contained chlormequat, including Quaker Oats and Cheerios.

This study—the first to report urinary chlormequat measurements in adults living in the United States—highlights the possible widespread presence of chlormequat and the necessity for transparency and further investigation into potential health implications for consumers.

(Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock)  What Is Chlormequat?

Chlormequat, widely known in the salt form as chlormequat chloride, is an agricultural chemical first registered in the United States in 1962 as a plant growth regulator. Plant growth regulators are chemical substances employed to control and regulate plant growth, flowering, and fruit yield, according to a 2006 study in the International Journal of Andrology.

Chlormequat application in grain crops results in reduced stem height, thereby minimizing the occurrence of lodging (bending over), which can reduce the efficiency of the harvesting process.

Chlormequat is the world’s most common plant growth regulator according to a 2020 study published in Toxicology. “Chlormequat is often the most detected pesticide residue in grains and cereals, as documented by monitoring surveys spanning several years,” according to the 2024 study. It is approved for use in Europe and parts of North America.

In the United States, chlormequat is permitted exclusively for use on ornamental plants and is prohibited for application on food crops grown within the country. Therefore, the presence of chlormequat in Cheerios and other oat-based foods sold in the United States raises questions regarding its introduction into the food supply chain.

How Did Chlormequat Enter the US Food Supply?

In April 2018 the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) allowed chlormequat into the food supply by establishing acceptable food tolerance levels for chlormequat chloride in imported oats, wheat, barley, and select animal products. This action allowed for the importation and sale of those agricultural products even if treated with chlormequat.

Consequently, U.S. consumers may unknowingly be ingesting tainted imported foods—potentially exposing themselves to chlormequat or its residues.

In 2020, the allowable chlormequat levels were increased for oats. In April of 2023, the EPA proposed allowing the first-ever use of chlormequat on barley, oat, wheat, and triticale grown in the United States. If passed, exposure levels may increase, raising concerns about its implications on health and food safety.

Heath Concerns Surrounding Chlormequat

Chlormequat, while not as notorious as other pesticides, has long been linked to reproductive and developmental concerns in animal research.

In the 1980s, Danish pig farmers observed reproductive declines in pigs consuming chlormequat-treated grains, according to a 2006 article in the International Journal of Andrology.

The observation led to a controlled laboratory study, which confirmed impaired reproduction. Specifically, sows fed chlormequat-treated grain experienced impaired reproduction, primarily disruptions in oestrus cycling, and difficulty mating, as cited in the 2006 article.

These findings prompted the Danish pig industry to recommend restricting the use of crops treated with chlormequat and other growth regulators (up to a maximum of 30 percent of diet energy) due to potential reproductive issues.

Similar findings were observed in 1999 when male mice exposed to chlormequat through food or drinking water demonstrated “significantly diminished fertilization and cleavage rate” of sperm, indicating a decrease in sperm function, according to a study in Reproductive Toxicology.

Of significance, the estimated intake of chlormequat in the abovementioned pig (0.0023 milligrams (mg)/kilograms (kg) body weight (bw) per day) and mouse (0.024 mg/kg bw/day) experiments fell below the reference dose published by the EPA (0.05 mg/kg bw per day) and the acceptable daily intake published by the European Food Safety Authority (0.04 mg/kg bw/day), according to the 2024 study. These findings raise concerns regarding the current established limits set by regulatory authorities.

Recent studies further demonstrate chlormequat’s reproductive and developmental toxicity, including:

  • Delayed onset of puberty: According to a 2020 study in Toxicology Letters, male rats exposed to chlormequat from postnatal day 23 to 60 demonstrated reduced prostate weight and delayed onset of puberty.
  • Reduced sperm motility: Male rats exposed to chlormequat in utero demonstrated a delayed onset of puberty as well as decreased sperm motility, according to a 2021 study in Toxicology Letters.
  • Decreased testosterone: Male adult rats exposed to chlormequat by oral gavage (delivering substances directly to the stomach via a bulb-tipped needle) demonstrated lower testicular weight, decreased sperm motility, and decreased testicular testosterone, according to a 2018 study in Toxicology Letters.

Moreover, developmental toxicity studies suggest that chlormequat exposure during pregnancy can disrupt fetal growth and metabolism postnatally, indicating a lasting impact on offspring development in rats. For instance, a 2020 study published in Toxicology reported maternal exposure to chlormequat in rats led to adverse effects on postnatal health, including hypoglycemia, hyperlipidemia, and hyperproteinemia seven days after birth compared with controls.

A 2007 study in Analytical and Bioanalytical Chemistry reported detectable levels of chlormequat in blood, as well as its transfer into milk, in pigs exposed to chlormequat. While these markers have not been thoroughly investigated in humans, they raise concerns regarding potential implications for fetal exposure during pregnancy and infants’ exposure through breastfeeding.

Some studies have failed to detect significant impacts of chlormequat on reproduction in female mice or male pigs, or the fertilization capacity in male mice exposed to chlormequat during development and postnatally. The equivocal findings in the toxicological literature concerning chlormequat could stem from variations in tested doses, outcome measures, and/or funding sources. According to a 2006 study in the International Journal of Andrology, “Reports from the industry do not show any effects at these low levels.”

Aim of New Ground-Breaking Study

Considering the health concerns underscored in the scientific literature, the goal of the 2024 study was to assess the impact of the EPA’s decision to permit chlormequat in the United States food supply.

Study Design

The 2024 study assessed chlormequat levels in the urine of individuals from three distinct geographic regions in the United States spanning from 2017 to 2023. Specifically, 21 urine samples were gathered in South Carolina in 2017, 25 samples were collected in Missouri from 2017 to 2022, and 50 samples were obtained in Florida in 2023.

The study also examined chlormequat levels in oat and wheat-based products acquired in the United States during 2022 and 2023. Specifically, 25 conventional oat-based food items were analyzed during this period, along with eight organic oat-based products and nine conventional wheat-based food products.

Study Results Urine Analysis

Chlormequat was detected in 80 percent (77 out of 96) of urine samples.

The authors noted a rising trend in chlormequat exposure over time, with detection frequencies notably elevated in 2023 samples compared to those from 2017 and the years 2018 to 2022. Specifically, in 2017, 69 percent of samples tested positive, while from 2018 to 2022, 74 percent were positive. In stark contrast, 90 percent of samples in 2023 were positive, representing a significant increase compared to all previous years examined.

According to the researchers, “These data indicate likely continuous exposure given the short half-life of chlormequat [2–3 hours].”

To assess whether the rising concentrations detected in the urine samples reflected potential dietary exposure to chlormequat, the researchers analyzed chlormequat levels in oat and wheat-based food products purchased in the United States.

Food Exposure Analysis

The results of the food analysis were equally concerning: a high percentage of conventional oat-based products tested positive for chlormequat, with popular brands like Quaker Oats and Cheerios among those affected.

Specifically, 92 percent (23 out of 25) of conventional oat-based products tested positive for the presence of chlormequat, “indicating a high prevalence of chlormequat in oats,” according to the study. This highlights the potential risk posed to consumers, particularly children, who may consume these products regularly.

Chlormequat was detected in 12.5 percent (one out of eight) of organic oat-based products tested. Additionally, 22 percent (two out of nine) of conventional wheat-based products tested positive for chlormequat.

Collectively, the urinary and food exposure data “may reflect the likely recent introduction of chlormequat into the U.S. food supply due to EPA regulatory action changes involving chlormequat, including establishing a limit on chlormequat in food in 2018 and raising those limits for oats in 2020,” according to the study.

Conclusion

This groundbreaking study sheds light on the possible widespread prevalence of chlormequat in the United States food supply, as documented in both urinary and food exposure analyses. The findings reveal a concerning trend of increasing chlormequat exposure over time, with detection frequencies spiking notably in recent years.

Chlormequat’s documented toxicological properties, particularly its association with reproductive and developmental issues, raise significant concerns about its long-term effects on human health. Moreover, there is currently no monitoring of chlormequat in food products in the United States, leaving consumers vulnerable to potential risks.

With the EPA’s proposed expansion of chlormequat usage on domestically grown crops, the study’s findings serve as a crucial call to action for greater transparency in pesticide usage and monitoring, as well as consumer awareness so we can work toward a food supply that safeguards the well-being of the individual.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 22:00

Speaker Johnson's Ignominious Betrayal

Zero Hedge -

Speaker Johnson's Ignominious Betrayal

Authored by David Stockman via David Stockman's Contra Corner,

Speaker Johnson’s ignominious betrayal of fiscal sanity might well be the death knell for the GOP. He is apparently risking his speakership on behalf of $95 billion of foreign aid boondoggles that Uncle Sam cannot remotely afford, and which actually provide zero benefit to the homeland security of America. And we do mean zero, as in nothing, nichts, nada, nyet and nugatory, as we amplify below.

What Johnson’s impending Waterloo means, therefore, is not merely the prospect of another wild and wooly succession battle, but actually that there is no point at all in the preservation of a Republican majority and GOP House Speaker. After all, the Washington GOP has become so infected with neocon warmongers and careerist pols who spend a lifetime basking in the imperial projects and pretensions of the world’s War Capital that apparently the best the House GOP caucus could do when it ejected the previous careerist deep stater from the Speaker’s chair was to tap the dim-witted nincompoop who currently occupies it.

The Republican party is thus truly beyond redemption. As JFK once said about the CIA, its needs to be splintered into a thousand pieces and swept into the dustbin of history.

Indeed, when you look at the calamitous fiscal trajectory embedded in the CBO’s latest 30-year fiscal outlook, you truly have to wonder about what miniature minds like Congressman Johnson’s are actually thinking. That is to say, the latest CBO report published in March presumes that there will never be another recession and no inflation flare-up, interest rate spike, global energy dislocation, prolonged Forever War or any other imaginable crisis ever again—just smooth economic sailing for the next 30 years.

And yet, and then. Even by the math of this Rosy Scenario on steroids the public debt will reach $140 trillion at minimum by 2054. In turn, that would cause interest payments on the public debt with rates no higher than those which prevailed between 1986 and 1997 to reach $10 trillion per year.

You simply don’t need paragraphs, pages and whole monographs worth of analysis and amplification to understand where that is going. The nation’s fisc is now on the cusp of descending into the maws of a doomsday machine. So how in the world do these elements of Johnson’s offering make even the remotest sense?

Speaker Johnson's Foreign Aid Boondoggle:

  • Indo-Pacific aid: $8.1 billion.
  • Israel: $26.4 billion.
  • Ukraine: $60.8 billion.
  • Total: $95.3 billion.

Apparently, it’s because Johnson and a good share of the Washington GOP have succumbed wholesale to neocon paranoia, stupidity, lies and hollow excuses for warmongering. For crying out loud, Putin has no interest in molesting the Poles, to say nothing of storming the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. He is certainly no Ghandi, but well more than smart enough to recognize that with Russia’s GDP of $2.2 trillion and war budget of $80 billion there would be no point in going to war with NATO’s $45 trillion of GDP and combined war budgets in excess of $1.2 trillion.

Likewise, China’s $50 trillion debt-ridden Ponzi would collapse in months if its $3.5 trillion flow of export earnings were disrupted after attempting to land its single modern aircraft carrier on the California coast. And Iran has no nukes, no intercontinental range missiles and a GDP equal to 130 hours of US annual output.

So, some Axis of evil!

Yet that’s exactly what the Speaker said this morning after going to too many Deep State briefings and apparently having his own johnson yanked once too often. The Swamp creatures surely see the lad’s naivete and blithering ignorance as a gift that doesn’t stop giving. That is to say, a “mark” who knows nothing at all about the world from sources not stamped, “Top Secret (lies)”.

Speaker Mike Johnson: “We’re going to stand for freedom and make sure that Putin doesn’t march through Europe… we’re the greatest Nation on the planet, and we have to act like it”,

This is a critical time right now, a critical time on the world stage. I can make a selfish decision and do something that’s different but I’m doing here what I believe to be the right thing. “I think providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important. I really do. I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we've gotten.

I believe Xi, Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil. I think they’re in coordination on it. “So I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies.

To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me as it is so many American families. This is not a game, this is not a joke.

Needless to say, our dufus Speaker doesn’t know the “Baltics” from the “Balkans” where Serbia and other Russian friendlies are definitely not quaking in their boots about Putin.

In point of fact, however, it is not hard to see that the civil war and territorial dispute between Kiev and Moscow over the Donbas and rim of the Black Sea from Mariupol to Odessa is a one-off of Russian and regional history and Washington’s mindless push of NATO eastward to Russia’s very doorstep.

The light-yellow area of this 1897 map gave an unmistakable message: To wit, in the late Russian Empire there was no doubt as to the paternity of the Donbas and the lands adjacent to the Azov Sea and the Black Sea. Already then, they were part of the 125 years-old New Russia, which had been assembled by purchase and conquest during the reign of Catherine the Great.

Indeed, it was only in 1922 that the yellow area—essentially demarcating the four provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which recently voted to rejoin Russia—was appended to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by the great humanitarian and map-maker, V. Lenin.

And yet Speaker Johnson now wants to crash the Republican Party on enforcing a map drawn by one of history’s bloodiest monsters. It’s come down to that.

That is to say, the war in Ukraine would stop tomorrow without another dime of aid from the US taxpayers if Washington agreed to partition the wholly artificial polity assembled by Lenin, Stalin (parts of Poland) and Khruschev (Crimea). In every presidential election in “Ukraine” since 1991 the electorate has essentially voted for separation via 80/20 pluralities in Novorossiya and Crimea for the pro-Russian candidate and 80/20 pluralities in the center and west for the Ukrainian nationalist.

That is, America’s national security would be undermined not one bit by a new map showing two countries and no war: That is, Novorossiya (New Russia) in the east and south, on the one hand, and the parts and pieces of Poland, Galicia-Austria and the Cossack Hetmanates in the center and west, on the other. Agree to keep NATO out of this rump state of Ukraine and it’s all over except the shouting.

Nevertheless, the insanity of the Russophobia which keeps knuckleheads like Johnson from having an even rudimentary grasp of the matter reveals an even larger issue.

Namely, it explains why Washington’s hegemonic foreign policy is a dysfunctional disaster, which unceasingly spawns madness like today’s $95 billion foreign aid boondoggle.

To wit, it encourages the Empire’s client and allied states to take bellicose positions vis a vis Washington designated rivals and enemies because it brings aid to their treasuries, weapons to their militaries and prestige and self-importance to their politicians and diplomats.

Thus, would Poland’s rightwing politicians always be barking at Russia, Russia, Russia in the absence of its NATO membership and US military and diplomatic shield? We sincerely doubt they would be poking the bear, but instead would be seeking friendly accommodation with a natural trading partner.

Likewise with Germany. The latter was apparently so petrified by a rescendant Russia that as recently as 2019 it spent the grand sum of just $50 billion and 1.3% of GDP on defense, while quite logically fueling its booming industrial and export economy with cheap Russian gas.

What has changed since then is not remotely Germany’s assessment of the Russian threat. What changed is client state politics. The Green Party entered the government coalition with the Social Democrats by beating the war-drums because they saw attacking Russia and Russian gas as a way to promote their hideous crusade against fossil fuel. And they did so with impunity, knowing that Washington’s military shield had their backs.

As to Tiawan’s client state politics, it’s not even a close call. Announce that Washington’s archaic “strategic ambiguity” policy– left over from the time of two departed demons, Mao Zedong and Chaing Kai Chek—has now also departed into the “inoperative” realm of Nixon-speak and you wouldn’t need any “Indo-Pacific” aid boondoggles, either.

To the contrary, Taiwan’s leaders would be scampering to Beijing for discussions of a “Hong Kong” transition in short order. America’s homeland security, of course, would be no worse for the wear—except for saving the cost of 100,000 servicemen in the Far East and the multi-trillion cost over time of patrolling the Pacific for the benefit of exactly what?

Then, of course, we get to the $26.4 billion for Israel. That’s about 4.5% of its GDP and should come out of its own war taxes, not Uncle Sam’s credit card. Moreover, it’s proof positive of the baleful impact of the Empire’s military shield and checkbook on client state politics. As we recently showed, Israel’s defense spending has been steadily plunging to less than 5% of GDP, even as its voters have repeatedly elected bellicose governments consisting of rightwing warmongers and fanatical religious factions.

These Netanyahu governments have consistently undermined a two-state solution to the Palestine problem, even going so far as to bless the transfer of billions of cash in suitcases to Hamas in order to undermine the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority.

Likewise, Netanyahu has wantonly demonized Iran mainly for the purpose of domestic politics and as a means to assemble 60+ vote coalitions in the Knesset.

Absent the US Navy and Air Force shield in the region, however, no Israeli government would have ever conducted unending assassination raids on that country or sabotaged on Capitol Hill Washington’s attempts at constructive arrangements with Iran like Obama’s nuke deal.

Indeed, absent Uncle Sam’s $4 billion annual gift and even more valuable regional military shield, Netanyahu and his extremist coalitions would have needed to raise taxes massively in Israel in order to fund their Garrison State war policies. We doubt the Israeli electorate would have tolerated the true cost of Netanyahu’s madness for very long.

At the end of the day, what Washington now needs is a break-up of the GOP and the formation of a Peace and Freedom party from the remnants of the conservative GOP and the dovish left. Both have been ejected from the UniParty by today’s Republican and Democrat denizens of the world’s War Capital.

So perhaps Johnson’s hari-kari act will bear some fruit, after all. Not as he intended, but in the good way that American democracy desperately needs at this fraught juncture.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 21:20

North Carolina High School Student Suspended Over Use Of "Illegal Alien"

Zero Hedge -

North Carolina High School Student Suspended Over Use Of "Illegal Alien"

A 16-year-old High School student in North Carolina was suspended for three days after using the term "illegal alien" - a legal term of art, during a vocabulary assignment in his English class.

Leah McGhee, the boy's mother, says her son was assigned vocabulary words during class last Tuesday, which included the word 'alien,' the Carolina Journal reports. When her son asked; "Like space aliens or illegal aliens without green cards?" - another student in the class took offense and threatened to kick his ass, prompting the teacher to call in the assistant principal.

School administrators at Central Davidson High School in Lexington deemed his words 'offensive and disrespectful to classmates who are hispanic,' according to the report.

"I didn’t make a statement directed towards anyone; I asked a question," the suspended boy said in response to his suspension. "I wasn’t speaking of hispanics because everyone from other countries needs green cards, and the term “illegal alien” is an actual term that I hear on the news and can find in the dictionary."

According to the report, the boy's record could now be damaged as he aims to secure an academic scholarship for collage. He currently participates in school clubs, track, and cross country.

"Because of his question, our son was disciplined and given THREE days OUT of school suspension for ‘racism,’" his mother wrote in an email shared with the Journal. "He is devastated and concerned that the racism label on his school record will harm his future goal of receiving a track scholarship. We are concerned that he will fall behind in his classes due to being absent for three consecutive days."

Leah said the assistant principal has so far refused to remove the infraction from her son’s record. The family is working with an attorney to remedy the situation so it doesn’t harm his future, and they expect more developments in the days ahead.

Meanwhile, State Senator Steve Jarvis, R-Davidson, said he contacted the school district’s superintendent to make him aware of the situation. Jarvis told the Carolina Journal that while he informed top officials of the issue and urged officials to look for the best outcome, he did not take a stance on what they should do because he wasn’t there to understand all sides of the story. -Carolina Journal

"I do not see that that would be an offensive statement, just in getting clarification," said Sen. Jarvis. "But there again, I don’t know. I don’t know the situation of this particular incident."

Seems fairly clear, no?

In a statement to Newsweek, the high school said: "Please know that Davidson County Schools administrators take all discipline incidents seriously and investigate each one thoroughly," adding "Any violation of the code of conduct is handled appropriately by administrators."

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 21:00

FBI Warns Of Risk Of Chinese Hack Attack On Energy Infrastructure

Zero Hedge -

FBI Warns Of Risk Of Chinese Hack Attack On Energy Infrastructure

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

The director of the FBI has warned that the Chinese state has its sights set on U.S. critical infrastructure to compromise U.S. economic and national security.

Speaking at the Vanderbilt Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats, Christopher Wray said:

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] has made it clear that it considers every sector that makes our society run as fair game in its bid to dominate on the world stage, and that its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic and break America’s will to resist.”

The head of the FBI also explained that the Chinese state has taken a hybrid approach to its efforts to weaken the United States, involving cybersecurity, counterintelligence, and crime.

The motivation for these efforts, according to Wray, was “driven by the CCP’s aspirations to wealth and power,” and the desire to “seize economic development in the areas most critical to tomorrow’s economy,” including through illegal means, such as theft.

With regard to critical infrastructure specifically, Wren said “The fact is, the PRC’s targeting of our critical infrastructure is both broad and unrelenting.”

“It’s using that mass, those numbers, to give itself the ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing,” the head of the FBI also said.

Wray referred to an ongoing hack attack dubbed Volt Typhoon which had opened up access for the hackers to a number of U.S. companies including pipeline operators. China, however, has denied any connection to Volt Typhoon, which Beijing said was a ransomware group, per a Reuters report.

"Some in the US have been using origin-tracing of cyberattacks as a tool to hit and frame China, claiming the US to be the victim while it's the other way round, and politicizing cybersecurity issues," the Chinese embassy in Washington said, as quoted by Reuters.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 20:40

RFK Jr Nails Down First Battleground-State Ballot Spot: Who Will Benefit Most?

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr Nails Down First Battleground-State Ballot Spot: Who Will Benefit Most?

In a development that's sure to cause shudders at Democratic National Party headquarters, the independent campaign of Robert F. Kennedy Jr on Thursday officially secured a place on the ballot in tightly-contested Michigan. However, some polls point to Kennedy being a bigger threat to Trump in the state that has 15 electoral votes. 

Michigan is considered one of seven battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election -- along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls generally show that the presence of independent and third-party candidates Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein provide a small benefit to Donald Trump.

With many Democratic electoral cornerstones wobbling -- including blacks, Hispanics and young people -- Blue Team is worried that Kennedy will peel off enough discontented Democrats to deliver victory to Trump. That's why Democrats are launching a multi-pronged attack on Kennedy, from legal challenges to his state ballot applications to hosting more than 15 Biden-endorsing Kennedy family members at a Philadelphia event on Thursday. 

Democratic worries about Michigan are compounded by what happened in the state's February primary. In a protest of Biden's handling of the Israel-Gaza war, more than 13% of Democrats voted "uncommitted." The 100,000 who chose that option represented a block more than 9 times Donald Trump's 2016 victory margin.  

However, two recent polls suggest the Trump campaign should be uneasy about Kennedy's Michigan ballot accomplishment.

  • Fox News shows Trump up 3 points in a head-to-head, but only up 2 points in a five-way contest. Kennedy scores 9%. 
  • Marketing Resource Group has Trump ahead by 6% vs Biden, but up 3% with Kennedy, Stein and West in the mix. Kennedy snags 13%. 

With the uncertain Kennedy impact in mind, Trump's Make America Great Again PAC on Monday launched a "Radical F***ing Kennedy" website, which spotlights various Kennedy stances that are anathema to conservatives.  

A Trump-backing Super PAC launched this website Monday to turn conservatives away from voting for Kennedy

With less than seven months to election day, Michigan is only the second state where Kennedy is officially on the ballot -- along with Utah. However, Kennedy's campaign and PAC say they've hit the signature requirements in many other states -- including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina -- and are awaiting the states' validation. 

Earlier this week, Kennedy announced that, after having considered the option, he wouldn't pursue the Libertarian Party's nomination as a way of instantly achieving 50-state ballot access. "We're not gonna have any problems getting on the ballot ourselves so we won't be running Libertarian," Kennedy told ABC News. "We're going to add probably two to three states a week."

Kennedy won't officially be an independent in the Wolverine State: His name will appear on the ballot line of the obscure Natural Law Party, which was founded to solve political problems "through alignment with the 'Unified Field' of all the laws of nature through the use of the Transcendental Meditation." Once a fledgling national organization, its last remnants are in Michigan; Ralph Nader ran on the state party's line in 2008. “[Kennedy is] the most qualified candidate in the modern-day history of America,” said party chairman Doug Dern.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 20:20

Biden Education Secretary Threatens to Shut Down Largest Christian College In The US

Zero Hedge -

Biden Education Secretary Threatens to Shut Down Largest Christian College In The US

Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

Joe Biden’s Secretary of Education, Miguel Cardona, threatened during a congressional hearing to weaponize the Department of Education to target and shut down the largest Christian university in the United States.

As Fox News reports, Cardona made his threats during a hearing before the House Appropriations Committee, in response to a question by far-left Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.). DeLauro attacked Grand Canyon University (CGU), falsely declaring it "a predatory for-profit school," to which Cardona said that “we are cracking down not only to shut them down, but to send a message to not prey on students.”

“You have a shiny brochure and a great commercial,” Cardona said.

“But the product is not worth the paper it’s written on. We have students graduating 60K to 70K dollars in debt, only eligible for jobs making under 30K. That to me is unacceptable.”

GCU has been accused of misleading students about the true cost of some of its doctoral programs, for which Cardona’s Education Department fined the university $37.7 million; the school is currently appealing that fine, which was implemented in November.

Past fines imposed by the Education Department on other schools were significantly smaller, with Penn State being fined just $2.4 million for its failure to deal with Jerry Sandusky’s sexual crimes; Michigan State was fined only $4.5 million for its similar failure to respond to the crimes of Larry Nassar.

In October, the department claimed that an investigation by the office of Federal Student Aid (FSA) determined that GCU had “lied” about the true costs of its doctoral programs to over 7,500 students, while presenting no evidence.

The department then gave GCU just 20 days to request a hearing with the department’s Office of Hearings and Appeals to object to the fine.

“Our next recourse after that decision would be another appeal within the Department, this time directly to the Secretary of Education,” said a GCU spokesman.

“Officials continue to make derogatory and inflammatory public statements that are legally and factually incorrect and not shared by any of the other 26 regulatory and accrediting bodies that oversee GCU,” the GCU spokesman continued.

“The Secretary’s comments to the House Appropriations Committee were so reckless that GCU is demanding an immediate retraction, as they do not reflect the factual record in this case. He is either confused, misinformed or does not understand the actions taken by his own agency.”

In response to Cardona’s threats, the American Principles Project (APP) has launched a petition to “protect Christian colleges.”

The petition says, in part, that in “light of the Biden administration’s unprecedented attacks on our nation’s largest Christian colleges,” the AFP and all signatories to the petition demand that “the administration halt their crusade and let students choose the schools that fit their values.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 20:00

"Southwest Stop!": Near Runway Disaster At Washington-Reagan Recorded On Shocking Audio 

Zero Hedge -

"Southwest Stop!": Near Runway Disaster At Washington-Reagan Recorded On Shocking Audio 

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is caught in one of the worst aviation crises in American history, as Boeing jets fall apart in mid-air and while on the runway. The latest near-disaster happened when a JetBlue flight nearly collided with a Southwest Airlines flight at Washington, DC's Reagan National Airport on Thursday morning. 

For any Zero Hedge readers who are aviators, you already know that as a pilot in command in airspace controlled by a tower, you're putting complete trust in air traffic controllers to guide you on the most effective path possible without hitting other planes. 

But that was almost not the case on Thursday morning when air traffic control instructed Southwest Airlines Flight 2937 to cross runway four at the airport while JetBlue Flight 1554 took off. 

The audio is absolutely shocking. For any pilot, it sends shivers down your spine...

DCA TOWER: JetBlue 1554, Stop!

DCA GROUND: Southwest, Stop! Southwest 2937, Stop!

Southwest Pilot: We stopped. We were cleared to cross runway 4.

JetBlue Pilot: We're stopping, JetBlue 1554

This is not the first operational error by towers across US airports. In February 2023, a landing FedEx cargo plane nearly collided with a Southwest passenger at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport in Texas. 

On Friday, FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker directed controllers to take ten hours off between shifts and a minimum of 12 straight hours off before a midnight shift. 

Every pilot should be concerned about the FAA's latest DEI hiring spree of folks with "hearing, vision, missing extremities, partial paralysis, complete paralysis, epilepsy, severe intellectual disability, psychiatric disability, and dwarfism" problems.

Sigh, Buttigieg. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 19:40

Soaring Russian Oil Imports Drag OPEC's Market Share In India To Record Low

Zero Hedge -

Soaring Russian Oil Imports Drag OPEC's Market Share In India To Record Low

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Russia was India’s single largest oil supplier for a second consecutive fiscal year, as surging imports of Russian crude dragged down the share of OPEC and Middle East supply to India to a record low, Reuters reported on Friday, citing data from tanker-tracking data obtained from industry sources.

In the 2023/2024 fiscal year ended March 31, the share of Middle East oil supply of India’s oil imports slumped to as low as 46% -- the lowest on record dating back to 2001-2002, according to the Reuters analysis. This compares with a 55% share of the Middle Eastern crude supply of Indian imports in the previous fiscal year 2022/2023.      

The key driver of historically low Indian imports from the Middle East was the surge in Russian crude supply to the world’s third-largest oil importer.

Russia alone accounted for around 35% of all Indian crude oil imports in 2023/2024, per the data compiled by Reuters.  

For the first time ever, India – which depends on imports for around 87% of its oil consumption – imported roughly equal volumes of OPEC and non-OPEC crude, thanks to the 57% annual surge in imports from non-OPEC producer Russia. 

Higher prices of Saudi crude and lower Kuwaiti supply as Kuwait limited exports of some grades to direct them to a new refinery also contributed to the low share of the OPEC and Middle Eastern crude of India’s imports. 

India’s crude imports remained flat in the 2023/2024 fiscal year, but the import bill of the world’s third-largest oil importer fell by almost 16% due to lower oil prices and record-high imports of cheaper Russian crude.   

While volumes were essentially unchanged, India’s spending on crude oil imports dropped by 16%, to $132.4 billion in 2023/2024, down from the $157.5 billion import bill for the 2022/2023 fiscal year, provisional data from the Indian Oil Ministry showed earlier this week.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 19:20

"Defund NPR Act" Introduced In House Over Bias, "Radical, Left-Wing Activist" CEO

Zero Hedge -

"Defund NPR Act" Introduced In House Over Bias, "Radical, Left-Wing Activist" CEO

Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) has introduced the "Defund NPR Act" to pull federal funds from National Public Radio, after veteran journalist Uri Berliner - who resigned this week following a suspension for penning a scathing article which exposed the network's far-left bias, including the fact that the outlet's DC bureau employs 87 registered Democrats and no Republicans, the Daily Caller reports.

What's more, NPR CEO Katherine Maher - who once bragged about taking censorship orders from the feds as the head of Wikipedia, and said during a Ted Talk that "truth" is a "distraction" which is "getting in the way of getting things done," was called out for years worth of woke diatribes on X (formerly Twitter), including calling herself "someone with cis white mobility privilege," anger towards white men for flying business class, and defending looting.

"NPR’s new CEO is a radical, left-wing activist who doesn’t believe in free speech or objective journalism. Hoosiers shouldn’t be writing her paychecks. Katherine Maher isn’t qualified to teach an introductory journalism class, much less capable of responsibly spending millions of American tax dollars," Banks told the Daily Caller shortly before introducing the bill.

"NPR was a liberal looney bin under the last CEO John Lansing, and it’s about to get even nuttier. It’s time to pull the plug on this national embarrassment. Congress must stop spending other people’s hard-earned money on low grade propaganda," Banks added.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 19:00

Huge Blast Rocks Iraq Base Used By Iran-Linked Militias

Zero Hedge -

Huge Blast Rocks Iraq Base Used By Iran-Linked Militias

Reuters is reporting a "massive" blast at an Iraqi base used by Iran-linked militias south of Baghdad in the overnight hours (local). 

"A huge blast rocked a military base used by Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to the south of Baghdad late on Friday," army sources said to Reuters.

Few other details have been given, but images are widely circulating online showing what indeed appears to be a very large-scale strike.

A number of regional correspondents have been quick to identify it as an American military airstrike; however, given the events of the night prior (the 'limited' attack on Iran), others are speculating it was the Israelis behind it.

Both the Israelis and Americans have struck Iran-linked PMF bases before, mostly in Eastern Syria - but a strike on such a scale inside Iraq by Israel remains very rare or even unprecedented.

Of course, since this again takes place when he market is closed the only way to trade it is via bitcoin, where the algos have decided to price in the end of the world for the third time in 5 days.

* * *

The Pentagon later denied US forces were behind the strike...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 18:50

Is There More To This Current Bird Flu Panic Than Meets The Eye?

Zero Hedge -

Is There More To This Current Bird Flu Panic Than Meets The Eye?

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Why are global health officials issuing such ominous warnings about the bird flu?  Do they know something that the rest of us do not? 

H5N1 has been circulating all over the planet for several years now, and it has been the worst outbreak that the world has ever seen.  Hundreds of millions of birds are already dead, and now H5N1 has been infecting mammals with alarming regularity.  The good news is that so far it has not been a serious threat to humans, but could that soon change? 

According to the World Health Organization, the possibility that H5N1 could start spreading among humans is an “enormous concern”

The increasing spread of bird flu to humans is an ‘enormous concern’, the World Health Organization has warned.

The virus, an extremely deadly H5N1 subtype, has caused devastating declines in bird populations following its emergence in Europe in 2020.

It has since jumped to mammals such as cows, cats, seals and now people, raising the risk of the virus mutating to become more transmissible.

The fact that so many different types of mammals are now being infected is definitely alarming.

But perhaps cows would not be getting infected if we were not literally feeding them chicken crap

As epidemiologists scramble to figure out how dairy cows throughout the Midwest became infected with a strain of highly pathogenic avian flu — a disease that has decimated hundreds of millions of wild and farmed birds, as well as tens of thousands of mammals across the planet — they’re looking at a standard “recycling” practice employed by thousands of farmers across the country: The feeding of animal waste and parts to livestock raised for human consumption.

“It seems ghoulish, but it is a perfectly legal and common practice for chicken litter — the material that accumulates on the floor of chicken growing facilities — to be fed to cattle,” said Michael Hansen, a senior scientist with Consumers Union.

It is not known if eating chicken crap is why so many cows in so many different states are being infected with H5N1.

But at a time when the bird flu is running rampant among chickens and turkeys, it seems very foolish to take chicken crap and feed it to our cows.

In any event, now there is a lot of panic about the potential for an H5N1 outbreak among humans.

Authorities at the WHO are warning that the death rate would be “extraordinarily high” if such an outbreak were to occur…

Experts at the WHO said humans face an ‘extraordinarily high’ mortality rate if the strain were to take hold, currently killing more than half of those infected.

I agree.

The bird flu is very dangerous, and if it starts spreading among humans on a widespread basis a lot of people will die.

So why are U.S. taxpayer dollars being used to fund experiments in China that are specifically designed to make bird flu viruses even more deadly?  The following comes from an extremely shocking Daily Mail article

Lawmakers are demanding answers after it was revealed the US is sending taxpayer dollars to a Chinese army lab to make bird flu viruses more dangerous to people.

Eighteen members of Congress are demanding answers from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) about the project, which was first revealed by DailyMail.com.

It is part of a $1million collaboration between the USDA and the CCP-run Chinese Academy of Sciences – the institution that oversees the Wuhan lab at the center of the Covid lab-leak theory.

In a scathing letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack last week, the bipartisan group said: ‘This research, funded by American taxpayers, could potentially generate dangerous new lab-created virus strains that threaten our national security and public health.’

As I warn in my latest book, mad scientists all over the globe are taking some of the most deadly bugs even known to humanity and are purposely trying to make them even more deadly.

And way too often, your tax dollars are paying for it.

Of course experiments on H5N1 are not new.

Over a decade ago, gain of function experiments that were funded by Dr. Francis S. Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci actually created a mutant version of H5N1 that “had gained the ability to spread through the air between ferrets”

And yet in late 2011 the world learned that two scientific teams – one in Wisconsin, led by virologist Yoshihiro Kawaoka, and another in the Netherlands, led by virologist Ron Fouchier – had potentially pushed the virus in that direction. Each of these labs had created H5N1 viruses that had gained the ability to spread through the air between ferrets, the animal model used to study how flu viruses might behave in humans.

The ultimate goal of this work was to help protect the world from future pandemics, and the research was supported with words and funding by two of the most prominent scientists in the United States: Dr. Francis S. Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Why would they purposely create such a thing?

Ferrets were specifically chosen for that research because they have respiratory systems that are very similar to humans.

Our ability to create deadly diseases far exceeds our ability to control them, and once something gets out it can spread around the globe in the blink of an eye.

Right now, there is a lot of concern about a “mystery respiratory illness” that has suddenly appeared in Argentina…

A mystery respiratory illness has hospitalised dozens of people in Argentina in an outbreak that shares eerie similarities with Covid’s arrival.

Sixty patients have been sickened with ‘severe atypical pneumonia’ in the capital, Buenos Aires.

An alert about the cluster of cases was last night circulated via an international public health surveillance system.

Covid was brought to the attention of the world in late 2019 as a result of the same database, called ProMed.

Hopefully this will turn out to be nothing.

But it is just a matter of time before more great pestilences ravage our planet.

Will H5N1 be one of them?

I don’t know, but this is a story that I will definitely be watching closely.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 18:40

Living On Uneasy Street

Zero Hedge -

Living On Uneasy Street

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

It's nice to anticipate sunny weather, but it's a good idea to carry an umbrella just in case the forecasts prove overly optimistic.

Yes, the market will rally if World War III didn't start last night. The market will also rally if World War III does start, because the Federal Reserve will surely lower interest rates.

We chuckle uneasily at gallows humor here on Uneasy Street because we're still required to maintain an upbeat veneer of endlessly cheerful optimism even as we sense that the forces currently in play are beyond the control of individuals or groups, no matter how powerful they may be, and that these forces will follow a course to an end no one can predict with any degree of upbeat confidence.

Back when we lived on Easy Street, things were getting better for everyone in varying degrees and the ladder of social mobility was available to all: anyone could improve their prospects by putting in the effort.

Fortunes were being minted, lists of reasons to be optimistic proliferated like overfed rabbits and spots of bother ran off the road on their own, requiring nothing of us.

Life on Uneasy Street is, well, different. The lists of reasons to be optimistic are still everywhere, but they now ring hollow, as those conjuring the lists sound increasingly frantic: come on, people, get with the program, it's all gonna be wunnerful, AI, AI, AI, Roaring 20s, blah blah blah.

The only true believers are those paid to shill the optimism by those seeking to maximize their profits via selling the sizzle rather than the actual steak. The entire exercise of trying to convince us that we still live on Easy Street is simply more evidence that Easy Street is a figment of imagination.

Now that various forces have been unleashed, gravity and the lay of the land will dictate the course of history. Yes, yes, our technological powers are god-like, we're going to Mars, there's a new (and immensely profitable, of course) technological solution to every problem, so just buy, buy, buy the latest gadget or med: imagine that, you can talk to your refrigerator! Wow. That solves a ton of pressing problems.

Too bad the fridge fails in a few years and has to be replaced, the med must be taken forever or your ill health returns, the side effects require a couple more meds, each of which has their own side effects, and going to Mars has no causal connection to actually solving problems here on Earth with some new technology.

Cycles play out despite our cheerleading inspirational rah-rah. Humans respond the same old way to the tightening of various screws: they start hoarding what's scarce, start seeing conquest and war as the go-to solutions to scarcities and rivalries, reasons to cooperate wither under the relentless sun of crisis while reasons to disagree proliferate most disagreeably like noxious weeds.

Just like all the other creatures on the planet, humans expand their consumption and numbers in times of plenty and are unprepared for the inevitable asymmetries of supply (stagnant or declining) and demand--forever rising, as growth is the one essential for the status quo, regardless of ideological type or label.

As supplies no longer exceed demand, inflation (loss of purchasing power of wages) eats the bottom 90% alive, while the rise of debt that so wondrously expanded the asset wealth of the top 10% starts eating its own tail, as interest rises faster than wages or actual production.

Various grandiose solutions are promoted that claim to fix the pressing problems. Some are absurd techno-fantasies (huge mirrors to deflect solar radiation--never mind the increasingly untenable cloud of space junk orbiting Earth), and some sound appealing but are not as painless as advertised, for example, the clearing away of all debt with a jubilee in which all debts are instantly forgiven.

A debt jubilee is certainly appealing to debtors and those who see the cliff ahead, but recall that all debt is an asset that is holding up an asset class far larger than the debt itself: mortgage debt is what props up the entire global real estate market, and what happens to valuations when debt ceases to exist?

Those who see jubilee as a solution also tend to ignore that all this debt is an asset of which 90% is owned by the wealthy class who run the status quo. Every bond, every mortgage-backed security and every bundled student loan / auto loan is an asset owned by someone or some entity who depends on that asset and its income stream for their wealth and thus their political power.

To hazard a guess based on human history, the wealthy / powerful will probably not be too keen to surrender the vast majority of their wealth and thus their power in the laudable pursuit of eliminating all debt and starting over.

Again based on the usual human responses to decay, decline, scarcities and threats to "what's mine," we can anticipate the elite's preference for a messy, chaotic form of jubilee in which various borrowers default and the underlying assets that provided collateral for the loan will be liquidated.

The elite hope that this messy, chaotic form of jubilee will reduce the debt so gradually that the system that benefits them will continue on its merry way. This hope is misplaced, however, for when collateral gets auctioned off at bargain prices, the value of all other similar assets drops accordingly.

And since nobody wants to catch the falling knife of crashing valuations, buyers are scarce, so the selling begets more selling and prices are pressured lower. Those who reckoned they were "buying the bottom" are wiped out, increasing the reluctance of survivors to take the risk of buying assets which could get much cheaper.

Soaring defaults tend to self-reinforce via feedback as the herd gets skittish and the appetite for risk vanishes like early morning mist in Death Valley. As buyers of crashing assets are carried out on stretchers, those who still own the sinking assets are watching their treasured wealth disappear, so they sell--at first with high expectations, and eventually in pure panic.

The future looks cloudy here on Uneasy Street, and everyone's still hoping for sunny days rather than a deluge. It's nice to anticipate sunny weather, but it's a good idea to carry an umbrella just in case the forecasts prove overly optimistic.

Here are three snapshots of what we're told is Easy Street: global debt skyrocketing:

Federal debt skyrocketing:

Financial wealth of the bottom 50% plummeting:

But think of the opportunities pre-cliff-dive:

As assets are liquidated, look for "likes" and upbeat Yelp reviews:

*  *  *

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Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 17:20

Watch Live: Countdown To The Most Important 'Halving' In Bitcoin History

Zero Hedge -

Watch Live: Countdown To The Most Important 'Halving' In Bitcoin History

We've previewed the shit out of this 'halving' (here, here, here, and here most recently) and now it's here.

As Bitcoin Magazine notes, this halving event – projected to occur within the next few hourswill occur as Bitcoin reaches block 840,000, marking the point at which its relative supply issuance will drop below that of gold for the first time.

Previous halvings have historically acted as a turning point in the market as the reduction in newly issued coins has been met with surging demand for the currency throughout each prior halving cycle.

As a reminder, this is part of Bitcoin’s design, which is hard-coded into the protocol, limiting the total Bitcoin supply to 21,000,000 BTC. New Bitcoin is issued through mining rewards that have been reducing roughly every four years. In the latest, 4th halving episode, the mining reward will be cut from the 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.

This time around, the halving has been preceded by a new all-time high, an occurrence that has never happened since Bitcoin’s inception in January 2009.

Between the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States (arguably the most successful ETF debut in history) by major financial institutions, and a potential resurgence in inflation, the Bitcoin bulls are on parade driving the market higher into uncharted territory.

Net flows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs have become more balanced. Overall, the magnitude of fresh inflows/outflows and the net flows have fallen over the course of last month.

But, as Goldman Sachs points out, the impact of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs on BTC supply is notable.

At present, the US Bitcoin ETFs are holding about $53b in assets (Bloomberg), which is about 835k Bitcoin.

This corresponds to the US Spot BTC ETFs holding :

  • 4.25% of total Bitcoin supply

  • 6.20% of Bitcoin supply that was active in the last 5 years

  • 12.40% of Bitcoin supply that was active in the last year

In celebration of the historic fourth Bitcoin halving and to ring in a new epoch in sound money, Bitcoin Magazine and Kraken are Livestreaming the event.

This event will bring together prominent voices in the Bitcoin space including Barstool CEO Dave Portnoy, Strike CEO Jack Mallers, Bitcoin Magazine Institutional Lead Dylan LeClair, and Ten31 Managing Partner Matt Odell.

Other guests slated to appear on the livestream are Bitcoin Magazine Chief Content Officer Pete Rizzo, Human Rights Foundation Director of Financial Freedom Christian Keroles, Simply Bitcoin Founder Nico Moran, Bitcoin Magazine Correspondent Isabella Santos, and Pomp Investments Founder Anthony Pompliano.

In the countdown to Bitcoin’s fourth epoch, Livestream guests will review the Top 21 Moments of the past four years, as voted on by Bitcoin Magazine readers.

Top moments include the rise of the Laser Eyes meme, MicroStrategy unveiling of its bitcoin-based treasury strategy, and the notorious rise and fall of disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. In partnership with Nitrobetting, Bitcoin Magazine will be awarding a 1 BTC prize pool for the Bitcoin Halving Challenge to contestants who most closely predict the price of the currency at Block 840,000.

Viewers will be able to count down to the halving with some of the biggest names in the space and commemorate the growth of Bitcoin with a New Year’s Eve-style celebration with Bitcoiners from around the world.

The full roster of Livestream participants can be seen on www.BitcoinHalving.com and viewers can tune in on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channelTwitter (X)LinkedInRumble and Facebook.

Watch the Livestream here (due to begin when the block height reaches 839,974):

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 17:00

US Domestic Bank Deposits Drop For Second Straight Week

Zero Hedge -

US Domestic Bank Deposits Drop For Second Straight Week

On the heels of a major deposit outflow the week before, and a huge (record) money-market fund outflow last week, all eyes are back on the banks again on Friday evening to see if this 'flight' continues as Tax-Day drags cash away from its comfy-5%-earnings-spots.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total US bank deposits declined for the second straight week (though only $2.4BN) after reaching back to pre-SVB levels...

Source: Bloomberg

And once again - like last week, and rather oddly giving the tax-day' timing - non-seasonally-adjusted bank deposits rose $16BN, now well above pre-SVB levels...

Source: Bloomberg

Is some of the money-market cash being moved (temporarily) into bank deposits before heading out to tax man?

Source: Bloomberg

Historically, it appears NEXT week is when we see the Tax-Day decline in the NSA data...

Source: Bloomberg

Excluding foreign deposits, domestic bank deposits did fall on both an SA (-$2.9BN - large banks -$14.8BN, small banks +11.9BN) and NSA (-$12bn - large banks -$24BN, small banks +12BN) basis.

Source: Bloomberg

But, unlike last week when deposits dropped, we saw bank loan volumes rise (not fall) in the week ending 4/10 with large bank voilumes rising 0.65BN and small bank volumes rising $7.3BN...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we detailed earlier, it appears the reality of bank reserves at The Fed is slowly (but surely) catching up with US equity market cap...

Source: Bloomberg

That's going to get awkward in an election year...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 16:44

Down With Big Brother: Warrantless Surveillance Makes A Mockery Of The Constitution

Zero Hedge -

Down With Big Brother: Warrantless Surveillance Makes A Mockery Of The Constitution

Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“Whether he wrote DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER, or whether he refrained from writing it, made no difference ... The Thought Police would get him just the same ... the arrests invariably happened at night ... In the vast majority of cases there was no trial, no report of the arrest. People simply disappeared, always during the night. Your name was removed from the registers, every record of everything you had ever done was wiped out, your one-time existence was denied and then forgotten. You were abolished, annihilated: vaporized was the usual word.”

- George Orwell, 1984

The government long ago sold us out to the highest bidder.

The highest bidder, by the way, has always been the Deep State.

What’s playing out now with the highly politicized tug-of-war over whether Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act gets reauthorized by Congress doesn’t just sell us out, it makes us slaves of the Deep State.

Read the fine print: it’s a doozy.

Just as the USA Patriot was perverted from its stated intent to fight terrorism abroad and was instead used to covertly crack down on the American people (allowing government agencies to secretly track Americans’ financial activities, monitor their communications, and carry out wide-ranging surveillance on them), Section 702 has been used as an end-run around the Constitution to allow the government to collect the actual content of your conversations (phone calls, text messages, video chats, emails and other electronic communication) without a warrant.

Now intelligence officials are pushing to dramatically expand the government’s spying powers, effectively giving the government unbridled authority to force millions of Americans to spy on its behalf.

Basically, the Deep State wants to turn the American people into extensions of Big Brother.

As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) explains:

If you have access to any communications, the government can force you to help it spy. That means anyone with access to a server, a wire, a cable box, a Wi-Fi router, a phone, or a computer. So think for a moment about the millions of Americans who work in buildings and offices in which communications are stored or pass through.

After all, every office building in America has data cables running through it. The people are not just the engineers who install, maintain, and repair our communications infrastructure; there are countless others who could be forced to help the government spy, including those who clean offices and guard buildings. If this provision is enacted, the government can deputize any of these people against their will, and force them in effect to become what amounts to an agent for Big Brother—for example, by forcing an employee to insert a USB thumb drive into a server at an office they clean or guard at night.

This could all happen without any oversight whatsoever: The FISA Court won't know about it, Congress won't know about it. Americans who are handed these directives will be forbidden from talking about it. Unless they can afford high-priced lawyers with security clearances who know their way around the FISA Court, they will have no recourse at all.”

This is how an effort to reform Section 702 has quickly steamrollered into an expansion of the government’s surveillance powers.

We should have seen this coming.

After all, the Police State doesn’t relinquish power easily, the Surveillance State doesn’t look favorably on anything that might weaken its control, and Big Brother doesn’t like to be restricted.

What most Americans don’t get is that even without Section 702 in play, the government will still target the populace for warrantless, suspicionless mass surveillance, because that’s how the police state maintains its stranglehold on power.

These maneuvers are just the tip of the iceberg.

For all intents and purposes, we now have a fourth branch of government.

This fourth branch came into being without any electoral mandate or constitutional referendum, and yet it possesses superpowers, above and beyond those of any other government agency save the military.

It is all-knowing, all-seeing and all-powerful.

It operates beyond the reach of the president, Congress and the courts, and it marches in lockstep with the corporate elite who really call the shots in Washington, DC.

The government’s “technotyranny” surveillance apparatus has become so entrenched and entangled with its police state apparatus that it’s hard to know anymore where law enforcement ends and surveillance begins. They have become one and the same entity.

The police state has passed the baton to the surveillance state.

On any given day, the average American is now monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways by both government and corporate eyes and ears.

Every second of every day, the American people are being spied on by the U.S. government’s vast network of digital Peeping Toms, electronic eavesdroppers and robotic snoops.

Beware of what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, and with whom you communicate, because it will all be recorded, stored and used against you eventually, at a time and place of the government’s choosing.

Privacy, as we have known it, is dead.

Whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency is listening in and tracking you. This doesn’t even begin to touch on the complicity of the corporate sector, which buys and sells us from cradle to grave, until we have no more data left to mine. These corporate trackers monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere and share the data with the government.

Just about every branch of the government—from the Postal Service to the Treasury Department and every agency in between—now has its own surveillance sector, authorized to collect data and spy on the American people. Then there are the fusion and counterterrorism centers that gather all of the data from the smaller government spies—the police, public health officials, transportation, etc.—and make it accessible for all those in power.

These government snoops are constantly combing through and harvesting vast quantities of our communications, then storing it in massive databases for years. Once this information—collected illegally and without any probable cause—is ingested into NSA servers, other government agencies can often search through the databases to make criminal cases against Americans that have nothing to do with terrorism or anything national security-related.

Empowered by advances in surveillance technology and emboldened by rapidly expanding public-private partnerships between law enforcement, the Intelligence Community, and the private sector, police have become particularly adept at sidestepping the Fourth Amendment.

Talk about a system rife for abuse.

Now, the government wants us to believe that we have nothing to fear from its mass spying program because they’re only looking to get the “bad” guys who are overseas.

Don’t believe it.

The government’s definition of a “bad” guy is extraordinarily broad, and it results in the warrantless surveillance of innocent, law-abiding Americans on a staggering scale.

Indeed, the government has become the biggest lawbreaker of all.

It’s telling that even after it was revealed that the FBI, one of the most power-hungry and corrupt agencies within the police state’s vast complex of power-hungry and corrupt agencies, misused a massive government surveillance database more than 300,000 times in order to target American citizens, we’re still debating whether they should be allowed to continue to sidestep the Fourth Amendment.

This is how the government operates, after all: our objections are routinely overruled and our rights trampled underfoot.

It works the same every time.

First, the government seeks out extraordinary powers acquired in the wake of some national crisis—in this case, warrantless surveillance powers intended to help the government spy on foreign targets suspected of engaging in terrorism—and then they use those powers against the American people.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the FBI repeatedly misused Section 702 in order to spy on the communications of two vastly disparate groups of Americans: those involved in the George Floyd protests and those who may have taken part in the Jan. 6, 2021, protests at the Capitol.

This abuse of its so-called national security powers is par for the course for the government.

According to the Brennan Center for Justice, intelligence agencies conduct roughly 200,000 of these warrantless “backdoor” searches for Americans’ private communications each year.

No one is spared.

Many of the targets of these searches have done nothing wrong.

Government agents have spied on the communications of protesters, members of Congress, crime victims, journalists, and political donors, among many others.

The government has claimed that its spying on Americans is simply “incidental,” as though it were an accident, but it fully intends to collect this information.

As journalist Jake Johnson warns, under an expanded Section 702, U.S. intelligence agencies “could, without a warrant, compel gyms, grocery stores, barber shops, and other businesses to hand over communications data.”

According to the Wall Street Journal, “The Securities and Exchange Commission is deploying a massive government database—the Consolidated Audit Trail, or CAT—that monitors in real time the identity, transactions and investment portfolio of everyone who invests in the stock market.”

Journalist Leo Hohmann reports that the government is also handing out $20 million in grants to police, mental health networks, universities, churches and school districts to enlist their help in identifying Americans who might be political dissidents or potential “extremists.”

Ask the government why it’s carrying out this far-reaching surveillance on American citizens, and you’ll get the same Orwellian answer the government has been trotting in response to every so-called crisis to justify its assaults on our civil liberties: to keep America safe.

What this is really all about, however, is control.

What we are dealing with is a government so power-hungry, paranoid and afraid of losing its stranglehold on power that it is conspiring to wage war on anyone who dares to challenge its authority.

When the FBI is asking banks and other financial institutions to carry out dragnet searches of customer transactions—warrantlessly and without probable cause—for “extremism” indicators broadly based on where you shop, what you read, and how you travel, we’re all in trouble.

You don’t have to do anything illegal.

For that matter, you don’t even have to challenge the government’s authority.

Frankly, you don’t even have to care about politics or know anything about your rights.

All you really need to do in order to be tagged as a suspicious character, flagged for surveillance, and eventually placed on a government watch list is live in the United States.

As long as the government is allowed to weaponize its 360 degree surveillance technologies to flag you as a threat to national security, whether or not you’ve done anything wrong, it’s just a matter of time before you find yourself wrongly accused, investigated and confronted by police based on a data-driven algorithm or risk assessment culled together by a computer program run by artificial intelligence.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it won’t be long before Big Brother’s Thought Police are locking us up to “protect us” from ourselves.

At that point, we will disappear.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 16:20

Tech Wrecks As FedSpeak F**ks FOMO-Followers; Gold Hits New Record High

Zero Hedge -

Tech Wrecks As FedSpeak F**ks FOMO-Followers; Gold Hits New Record High

Well, that escalated quickly...

..but some saw it coming.

In a week characterized by data supporting 'no landing' from a growth perspective and disappointment from a disinflation perspective...

Source: Bloomberg

FedSpeak that was without exception - hawkish!

As they suddenly realized that all that 'pivot' optimism did nothing but dramatically ease financial conditions and fuck their 'best laid plans' for a rate-cut and soft landing...

Source: Bloomberg

Even the dove-est of the doves - Austan Goolsbee - bent the knee today:

“So far in 2024, that progress on inflation has stalled,” Goolsbee said Friday in remarks prepared for an event in Chicago.

“You never want to make too much of any one month’s data, especially inflation, which is a noisy series, but after three months of this, it can’t be dismissed.”

“Right now, it makes sense to wait and get more clarity before moving,” Goolsbee said.

And sure enough, rate-cut expectations for 2024 and 2025 have both plunged this week...

Source: Bloomberg

...and that has finally started to weigh on investors' risk appetites (that's a long way to catch down to reality)...

Source: Bloomberg

Most traders thought the worst was over last night as the panic-puke in futures was BTFD'd back to unchanged ahead of the cash open, but then the selling started (on Nasdaq) and never really stopped. On the day, Nasdaq was down over 2% while The Dow managed to gain 0.5%. Small Caps were almost unchanged by the end of the day with the S&P lagging...

But, all the majors ended the week red (with The Dow desperately trying to get back to even). Nasdaq was down over 5.5% on the week! S&P and Small Caps down around 3%...

Nasdaq is down for six straight days for its biggest weekly drop since Nov 2022, breaking below its 100DMA as CTA 'sell threshold's were crosed. Goldman's trading desk noted:

"The NDX now pacing for its worst week in over a year (down 6 of 7 weeks) as a complicated technical backdrop (CTAs, lower retail participation, NDX now testing 100-dma, seasonality), sideways earnings revisions thus far (ASML, TSM and even Sheridan’s NFLX EPS revisions were only 1-2% last night), a tense geopolitical backdrop (overnight headlines) and elevated positioning are testing conviction into a busy week of earnings … some debate if this all ‘helps’ the set-up into FAAMG prints or if the market is just read to ‘take a breather’ and sell any good news..."

The MAG7 basket broke below its 50DMA this week - the first time since October, when The Fed 'pivoted' and save the world. The market cap of the MAG7 is now down over $1 Trillion from its highs a week ago...

Source: Bloomberg

AI Leaders crashed relative to firms 'at risk from AI', plunging to their lowest in two months...

Source: Bloomberg

Of note is that the AI Leaders are perfectly back to their prior peak in 2021 (which was driven by chip demand for crypto mining and COVID disruptions), breaking down to the 100DMA and through the medium-term uptrend...

Source: Bloomberg

Semis were slaughtered this week...

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA plunged 10% today back to two month lows, closing below its 50DMA for the first time since Nov 2023...

... now in bear market (down over 22% from its highs) and the CSCO analog doesn't look so crazy anymore...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, amid all this carnage, banks had a decent week with WFC and MS outperforming (JPM still lagging from its drop on last Friday's earnings)...

Source: Bloomberg

The Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and Dow are all back below their 100DMA, and the S&P 500 is pushing down towards its 100DMA (having blow thru the CTA 'sell' thresholds)...

Goldman's trading desk warns, it could get worse: "CTA supply is building – our team’s work shows this group sold $25B globally this week ($9B in SPX) with next week expected to bring another $27B globally (and $10B SPX) in a flat tape scenario.  Reminder the medium term threshold (aka most important) level is 4886 – less than 100 handles away from spot."

Next week brings 43% of SPX set to report earnings highlighted by META/MSFT/GOOGL (aka $6.1T of mkt cap) reporting on Thurs night...on the macro front, key reports include 1Q GDP on Thurs & March PCE on Fri.

VIX soared this week to six-month highs, and credit markets also - finally - started to crack...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the week higher, but not before plunging overnight on  a flight-to-quality bid as Israeli missiles hit Iran, taking yields lower on the week. By the close of the week, the belly slightly underperformed but yields were all up by around 8-10bps....

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the second straight week, hitting its highest since early Nov 2023 last night on the mid-east attacks before sliding back...

Source: Bloomberg

Heading into today's 'halving' - likely to occur within the next few hours - Bitcoin was down, puking once again overnight on geopolitical chaos like it did last weekend, only to see buying come right back (after testing below $60,000 for the first time since early March)...

Source: Bloomberg

5.00% remains a key level for the 2Y Yield...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite two major attacks in the Middle East, oil prices ended lower for the second week in a row (well WW3 hasn't started yet). Some knock-on effects from an evaporation of hope for demand-sponsoring rate-cuts also weighed on sentiment as WTI

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold prices spiked overnight on the Israel attack, pulled back, then rallied up to $2400 once again to close at the highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold closed the week at a new record high...

Source: Bloomberg

Silver soared 3% on the week to new cycle highs (its highest since Feb 2021)...

Source: Bloomberg

Silver has been broadly speaking outperforming gold in recent weeks after peaking at a gold-to-silver ratio of around 92x in January, it is ow down to 83 (still well above the 65x average since 1980... implying silver remains 'cheap' to gold)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and then there's Cocoa...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, are bank reserves at The Fed still the driving force for reality?

Source: Bloomberg

We saw the reality check from Aug-Oct last year; are we about to get another?

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/19/2024 - 16:00

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