Watch Groups

HOOPP Highlights NIA Paper on How Canadians Can Get More Out of Retirement

Pension Pulse -

Today, HOOPP issued a press release on a new paper from the National Institute on Ageing (NIA) considers the physical and psychological factors influencing when Canadians claim their CPP/QPP:

HOOPP has been a long-standing advocate for improved retirement security in Canada and we conduct research to help inform the national dialogue on this important issue. We are pleased to find like-minded thinkers who contribute their perspectives to this dialogue. Today, the NIA has released the first paper in a new eight-part series about how financial services and policy makers can help Canadians make informed decisions to maximize their Canada/Quebec Pension Plan (CPP/QPP) income. The paper, Introduction: Opportunities and Obstacles to Shifting the Paradigm, gives an overview on why most Canadians start their CPP/QPP at 65 and the areas of opportunity to help shift their thinking about retirement planning.

Could some Canadians be better positioned for retirement by waiting to claim their CPP/QPP?

The paper notes that starting CPP/QPP after the age of 65 can increase payments significantly, especially if they wait until 70 years old when their monthly pension could more than double what it would have been if they began collecting at 60. These higher payments are for life and indexed to inflation. So, why do most Canadians take it at 65?

Retiring late and delaying CPP/QPP may not be an option for everyone depending on their specific personal and professional circumstances. However, for those who are able to do so, the paper makes an intriguing argument in favour of using informed decision-making, catering to human psychology and behaviour, and placing emphasis on long-term financial planning to shift the current paradigm.

This shift is especially important in the context of the Canadian retirement system which is based on three important pillars working together to secure Canadians’ retirement incomes: personal savings, workplace retirement savings arrangements, like HOOPP, and government programs, like CPP/QPP.

However, not all Canadians are able to access all three pillars. In the latest Canadian Retirement Survey, almost half (44%) of non-retired Canadians aged 55-64 reported having less than $5,000 in savings. Coupled with the fact that the majority of Canadian workers do not have a registered pension plan through their employer, the importance of government programs become all the more critical. In fact, according to NIA’s paper, 90% of recipients say their CPP/QPP pension is an important source of their retirement income with 60% saying they can’t live without it.

We believe the paper’s ideas provide an interesting perspective to the national retirement security dialogue. We are pleased to share the series, 7 Steps Toward Better CPP/QPP Claiming Decisions: Shifting the paradigm on how we help Canadians, as new papers are released throughout the rest of the year.

Take the time to download and read the report here

It is written by Dr. Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald and this is what it's about:

More than a thousand Canadian baby boomers are making the CPP/QPP claiming decision every day. An overwhelming majority (9 in 10) choose to claim benefits by age 65, whether due to natural human bias, general lack of awareness of how CPP/QPP programs work or common financial planning practices.

The financial incentives to delay claiming are substantial, and their choice will affect them for the rest of their lives.

In the first release of this series, Dr. Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, Director of Financial Security Research for the NIA, explains why people claim these benefits earlier than they should, why better claiming behaviour is important, the obstacles to progress and what a paradigm shift would look like. 

Let me repeat this because it's extremely important:

Benefit levels are adjusted according to the recipient’s age when payments start, and the financial incentives to delay claiming are lifelong and substantial. By waiting until age 70 to claim benefits, Canadians can receive more than double (2.2 times) the monthly pension than if they had claimed them at age 60. These higher payments last for life and are also indexed to inflation.

That’s why, for most people who are looking to maximize their lifetime retirement income and can afford to wait – either by drawing on personal savings or working longer – choosing to delay claiming CPP/QPP benefits for as long as possible is one of the safest, most inexpensive ways of increasing lifetime pension income, bringing with it greater protection against low investment returns, high inflation, and the anxiety of potentially outliving their savings.

But despite these advantages, an overwhelming majority (9 in 10) choose to take their CPP/QPP benefits by age 65, reducing the lifetime income security they say they want and will most likely need. This disconnect between the needs and wants of retiring Canadians and their behaviour points to the importance of shifting the paradigm within which this high-stakes, complex decision is made.

The report highlights one of the key steps to delay CPP/QPP benefits to increase lifetime pension income is to draw on personal savings in early retirement as an income bridge to a higher delayed CPP/QPP benefit:

This strategy offers higher returns (how much money can be expected) and better protection against financial risk (the chance that the future will not work out as expected) than holding onto Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) or Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF) savings if the intent is to use those savings to increase retirement income. For example, MacDonald et al. (2020) found that nearly 4 out of 5 Canadians with RRSPs/RRIFs would get more lifetime income from using a portion of those savings as an income bridge rather than stretching out their RRSP/RRIF withdrawals over the span of their retirement. Even for individuals motivated by the prospect of a large savings account and not concerned about protecting themselves against future financial risks, deferring CPP/QPP is attractive when understanding the long- term view. For example, MacDonald (2020) found that a Canadian with the median CPP income and average life expectancy is losing out on over $100,000 worth of secure lifetime income, in current dollars, by taking CPP benefits at age 60 rather than age 70. In this scenario, delaying benefits amounted to a 50% increase in their total lifetime CPP/QPP income.

That's a huge difference in secure lifetime pension benefit income!

Of course, to draw on personal savings in early retirement as an income bridge to higher delayed CPP/QPP benefits, you need to have significant savings, a decent cushion.

The report goes on to state most Canadians can afford to bridge the income gap by working longer and/or drawing on personal savings:

Building on Statistics Canada’s sophisticated Lifepaths Population Microsimulation model, MacDonald (2020) retrospectively looked back a decade, and found that most recipients (53%) could have afforded to delay claiming their CPP/QPP benefits using only a portion of their registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or registered retirement income fund (RRIF) to bridge the income gap. Canadians who are motivated to increase their secure lifetime income can also delay taking CPP/QPP without affecting their living standards by drawing on other savings outside of RRSPs/RRIFs and/or working longer, which increases the proportion of those who can afford to delay. A survey conducted by Retraite Québec in 2021 examined this question directly: approximately 4 out of 5 QPP recipients who claimed benefits at age 60 said they could have afforded to delay (Retraite Québec, 2022).

Delaying your retirement however really varies on your circumstances.

My father fully retired as a clinical psychiatrist at the age of 90 (partially at 85) after 50 years of working hard and is still in relatively good health at 92 so he is enjoying the maximum QPP/QPP. 

But he's the exception, most people retire a lot earlier for a whole host of reasons, health and wellbeing often being the number one reason.

So, I agree, if delaying retirement by 5 to 10 years is feasible, you should absolutely do it, but you will need savings no matter what to delay collecting CPP/QPP benefits till 70 to maximize your benefit payments.

And note this passage in HOOPP's press release:

However, not all Canadians are able to access all three pillars. In the latest Canadian Retirement Survey, almost half (44%) of non-retired Canadians aged 55-64 reported having less than $5,000 in savings. Coupled with the fact that the majority of Canadian workers do not have a registered pension plan through their employer, the importance of government programs become all the more critical. In fact, according to NIA’s paper, 90% of recipients say their CPP/QPP pension is an important source of their retirement income with 60% saying they can’t live without it.

Sadly, most retired Canadians relying solely on CPP/QPP as their only source of income are not getting by, and many are turning to food banks:

Yes, she probably also collects Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) but it's still not enough to make ends meet.

This is the harsh reality of pension poverty and the truth is we simply cannot expect Canadians struggling with high inflation to a) save adequately and b) properly invest their retirement savings.

Hell, I have smart friends working in finance and other fields and we have debates every day on markets and whether (for example) now is a good time to buy Bell Canada (BCE) and collect a big fat 9% dividend as the stock keeps sinking to a new 10-year low:

One friend thinks "it's a no-brainer" to add here as immigration is booming in Canada and these new immigrants need new cell phones. Moreover, the company has cut costs significantly after laying off thousands of workers and to boot, alongside Rogers, it owns a 75% stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE), a cash cow (that OMERS also owns a 5% stake in).

These are all great arguments to own the stock but a stock that keeps making new 10-year low is making it for a reason and if inflation expectations pick up and rates soar even higher in the second half of the year, all dividend stocks including Canadian banks will feel the pain.

So, sitting on BCE shares collecting a 9% dividend sounds great but if the stock keeps losing capital, your savings will dwindle and you'll be hoping it comes roaring back in time.

I'm being a bit too quick here covering the pros and cons of owning Bell and other dividend stocks but my point is even experts have sound disagreements.

And investing in these markets is NOT easy. 

This afternoon, all of a sudden, I noticed shares of a US insurer Globe Life getting clobbered after a short seller Fuzzy Panda Research disclosed a short position in the company, alleging multiple instances of insurance fraud:


This is an insurance company for Pete's sake! I can guarantee you at 3 p.m. this afternoon, elite hedge funds were snapping up shares as other investors panicked and dumped them.

After the close, the company issued a statement to refute the short seller's allegations but by then, the damage was done.

Now, don't go out to buy this stock tomorrow without understanding the risks as I expect more volatility, but my point is these are crazy markets, things can shift on a dime and we expect unsophisticated investors to make informed decisions?

It's literally like sending sheep out to the slaughter!

Trust me, I know, I trade biotech shares most people never heard of and see crazy volatility every week and even day!

And wait till this whole AI bubble bursts and sends the entire market tumbling hard, then the panic will really set in.

Anyways, my point in all this is that now more than ever, Canadians need to be better educated on retirement decisions and if possible, we need to cover more of them with a well-governed defined-benefit plan that pools investment and longevity risks

If we don't, pension poverty will accelerate over the next decade, I guarantee it just like I guarantee more homelessness in Canada if our policymakers at all levels of government don't cut regulations and significantly boost the supply of homes (not just condos but single family homes).

Alright enough of my doomsayer opinions, I leave you with the report's conclusions:

Once again, take the time to download and read the report here

Also, take the time to read all of HOOPP's advocacy research here, it's well worth it.

Lastly, Rick Hansen, founder of the Rick Hansen Foundation, posted an article on Linkedin yesterday on how a survey finds 'overwhelming support' for disability benefit complicated by slow implementation. 

That prompted me to reply with another article I had read last year about a retired nurse in Ontario, Una Ferguson, giving her disabled son Scott between $500 and $600 a month for essentials such as food and clothing.

Scott receives $1,197 a month from the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) which isn't indexed to inflation, with $497 of that supposed to go to rent.

Una worked until she was 73 to maximize her own retirement benefits so she could continue to help him out. 

And she is lucky her pension is managed by HOOPP and she can count on it as long as she's alive, others with disabled children they are looking after aren't as fortunate so I do hope the federal government stops dithering and implements Bill C-22 and all parties stand behind it to lift thousands of disabled Canadians out of poverty for good.

No wonder, a coalition of over 40 organizations is calling for a fully funded Canada Disability Benefit (CDB) that addresses the needs of Canadians:

"Our country is in a pivotal moment," said Neil Hetherington, CEO, Daily Bread Food Bank. "They can choose to let this bleak reality continue, or they can pivot towards a better future. Canadians have clearly articulated the answer to that question. The Canada Disability Benefit has the potential to be one of Canada's most important programs and could lift nearly one million Canadians out of poverty if fully funded."

The dismal state of disability benefits is another important issue policymakers need to take care of but I doubt it will be in the federal budget next week (don't get me started).

Below, Tony Clement recently welcomed back Stephen Poloz former Governor of the Bank of Canada, for a Prescient & Pressing Finance and Economic discussion on his Boom and Bust show.

Take the time to listen to Steve's insights on the age of uncertainty and what it means for policymakers implementing retirement and other policies and also see a previous comment of mine in why it's time to expand the CPP again where I share more of Steve's wise insights on retirement security.

CDPQ's 2023 Sustainable Investing Report

Pension Pulse -

Today, CDPQ published its Sustainable Investing Report for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023:

CDPQ actively contributes to advancing sustainable finance, and once again this year the report presents concrete actions taken to drive the organization’s impact. Following are some highlights.

Environment 

CDPQ is well on track to achieve the targets underpinning the climate strategy it adopted in 2021, including its goal of reaching a net-zero portfolio by 2050 with:

  • $53 billion in low-carbon assets, including $15 billion in Québec, representing an overall increase of $35 billion in low-carbon assets since 2017.
  • Over $330 billion in assets with a low-carbon footprint, representing nearly 80% of its total portfolio.
  • A 59% reduction in the carbon intensity of the portfolio since 2017.
  • $5 billion in transitional assets to decarbonize the highest emitting sectors.
  • Completion of its exit from oil production and thermal coal mining.
Social

CDPQ acts on several fronts to build strong communities by focusing on inclusion and the integration of social factors in all its activities:

  • Women represent 46% of CDPQ’s personnel, and it has a goal of reaching 47% by 2025.
  • 26% of its Québec employees identify as members of one of the following groups: visible minorities, ethnic minorities or Indigenous peoples, reaching the target it set.
  • 57% of its actively managed public companies count at least 30% women on their Boards, an increase of more than 39% in three years, and 30% of its nominee directors are women, thereby meeting the target it set.
  • CDPQ is one of the only investors in the world to have made a commitment to encourage tax best practices at its portfolio companies, including compliance with a minimum tax rate of at least 15%, as recommended by the OECD and supported by the G20.
Governance

CDPQ employs solid governance practices. This is why it uses different levers of influence to promote the adoption of best practices by:

  • Assisting several portfolio companies in integrating ESG factors into their processes, including 10 Québec companies.
  • Holding 308 discussions to raise awareness on ESG factors among 129 of its portfolio companies and 81 of its external managers.
  • Using its voting rights on 37,536 resolutions at 3,635 shareholder meetings to express its sustainability convictions.
  • 278 technology risk analyses carried out by its teams to strengthen the resilience of its portfolio companies.

“At CDPQ, we remain steadfast in our conviction that sustainability goes hand in hand with long-term returns. And I am proud to see how far we’ve come and everything our organization has achieved. Now, once a target has been reached, there’s only one good option: to raise it even higher. Further evolve our approach. Determine what we can do differently, and even better. This involves taking the full measure of what we can do, and leveraging that to improve our overall portfolio’s sustainability. Our leadership is recognized at home and abroad, and this is due to the work of our people, their diverse talents and expertise propel us forward,” said Charles Emond, President and Chief Executive Officer of CDPQ.

“Today’s challenges are tremendous levers for value creation. This is why we have an optimistic approach, both here in Québec and internationally. We support our portfolio companies on a day-to-day basis to ensure that they implement solid transition plans and view this journey as a promising business opportunity. We believe that this is the path that leads to achieving our common goals,” said Marc André Blanchard, Executive Vice-President and Head of CDPQ Global and Global Head 
of Sustainability.

The 2023 Sustainable Investing Report is available online.

ABOUT CDPQ

At CDPQ, we invest constructively to generate sustainable returns over the long term. As a global investment group managing funds for public pension and insurance plans, we work alongside our partners to build enterprises that drive performance and progress. We are active in the major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private debt. As at December 31, 2023, CDPQ’s net assets totalled CAD 434 billion. For more information, visit cdpq.com, consult our LinkedIn or Instagram pages, or follow us on X.

CDPQ is a registered trademark owned by Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and licensed for use by its subsidiaries.

Take the time to go over CDPQ's 2023 Sustainable Investing Report here.

You can also download a PDF file of the report here.

Let's begin with CEO Charles Emond's message:




I note the following:

Sustainability criteria are crucial as a tool for measuring companies’ long-term performance and risks. We should take full advantage of them. 

Now, once a target has been reached, there’s only one good option: to raise it even higher. Further evolve our approach. Determine what we can do differently, and even better. Where we can have an impact. Social issues, in particular, are one of our top priorities.

Constructive capital, which aims to combine performance and progress, is our investment philosophy. So it’s important to look at our portfolio from every angle. Do our portfolio companies have positive, neutral or even negative impacts? One of our roles is to work with them on identifying the best ways to integrate ESG factors. This involves taking the full measure of what we can do, and leveraging that to improve our totalportfolio’s sustainability.

Next, let's read the message from Marc-André Blanchard, Executive Vice-President and Head of CDPQ Global and Global Head of Sustainability:


I note the following:

Today’s challenges are tremendous levers for value creation. This is why we have an optimistic approach, both here in Québec and internationally. We support our portfolio companies on a day-to-day basis to ensure that they implement solid transition plans and view this journey as a promising business opportunity. We believe that this is the path that leads to achieving our shared goals.

We see the financial ecosystem playing an essential role in advancing sustainability issues. This is why, once again this year, innovative partnerships have been central to our success. A case in point is our collaboration on major global initiatives. Together, we are moving forward on mobilizing private capital around concrete solutions to accelerate the transition. At major international forums and high-level gatherings such as the G20 and COP28, CDPQ’s leadership on these themes shines through.

To continue on this path, we can rely on our diversified teams, which continue to propose innovative solutions for meeting the challenges that lay ahead. Their wide-ranging expertise, openness to others and in-depth knowledge of the markets make me proud to be at their side, and give me confidence for the future.

I will also refer my readers to an interesting discussion I had with Marc-André Blanchard late last year which you can read here.

CDPQ has taken a leadership role on mobilizing capital to accelerate transition and on promoting uniform disclosure standards:


Now, I am going to recommend you read the entire report carefully here for the simple reason that it's comprehensive and CDPQ is known to be a global leader in sustainable investing.

Just a few of the things that caught my attention:




I also noted how CDPQ takes the social aspect of ESG within its organization very seriously:


CDPQ has done a wonderful job attracting, retaining and promoting women at all levels of the organization and it takes all aspects of diversity, equity and inclusion seriously.

I'm always pushing large Canadian Crown corporations (not just pensions) to do more to hire people with disabilities because they are by far the most disadvantaged group in our society and it's not only the right thing to do on moral grounds, it's the right thing to do on all grounds, period.

As far as ageism, it's a form of discrimination, and if you notice on the second chart above, almost 30% of the employees are 45-years-old or over (8% over 55).

You simply cannot put a price on experience and wisdom, especially at organizations entrusted to manage billions on pension assets.

It shocks and disgusts me when friends of mine over 50 say their expiration date has arrived and their organization prefers to fire them to replace them with cheaper, younger workers (you get what you pay for...and who is going to mentor these young leaders of tomorrow and what happens when a crisis hits and your organization lacks the experience to deal with it?).

My message to all pension fund managers is simple, you are managing billions of pension assets, make sure you lead by example as you represent millions of hard-working citizens from all backgrounds.

It is incumbent upon you to facilitate the work environment for everyone and make it truly inclusive so that everyone no matter their age, gender, colour of their skin, religion, ethnic background, sexual orientation and disability can fully participate and contribute to enrich your organization in many ways.

I emphasize this because I have seen way too much discrimination (all forms) at financial institutions and it really, really irks me.

Also, equally important to note that old white European males aren't all bad, some of us can offer diversity of thought which is sorely lacking.

Alright, enough rambling, once again take the time to go over CDPQ's 2023 Sustainable Investing Report here and download a PDF file of the report here.

I know other pension funds have also put out their Sustainable Investing Report and I do not spend time covering all of them not because they're not worth it, it's just time consuming and the field has exploded and many of these reports are way too long (in my humble opinion).

Like I said, I covered CDPQ's SIR today because they are considered leaders in this space and I know there are other excellent reports too at other Canadian pension funds (AIMCO, BCI, CPP Investments, OTPP and OMERS)

Below, Marc-André Blanchard, B20 Co-Chair, ECRE TF, EVP Head of CDPQ Global and Global Head of Sustainability, discusses why it's important to bring as many stakeholders together to tackle climate change.

Update: On Thursday, CDPQ released its Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2023, titled Driving performance and progress (in French only - English available soon).

In addition to the financial results published on February 22, CDPQ presents an overview of its activities over the last year, which include:

  • A presentation of CDPQ’s depositors and their respective net assets as at 
    December 31, 2023
  • A detailed analysis of the overall return and different asset classes
  • A risk management report
  • A portrait of CDPQ’s activities in Québec, including its main achievement to support the growth of Québec’s economy, companies and entrepreneurship, as well as a summary of its investments in Québec
  • A section on compliance activities
  • Reports from the Board of Directors and its committees covering strategic orientations, audit, governance and ethics, investment and risk management, as well as human resources management and compensation for senior management and employees
  • The Sustainable Development Report
  • Our financial report and the organization’s consolidated financial statements
  • Report on compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS).

The Annual Report Additional Information (in French only - English available soon) for the year ended December 31, 2023, is also published today.

The English version isn't available yet but it will soon be made available here.

APG and Ivanhoé Cambridge Back Scape's $658M Student Housing JV in Australia

Pension Pulse -

Michael Cole of Mintiandi reports APG, Ivanhoe Cambridge back Scape in $658M student housing JV in Australia:

Australia’s largest owner and operator of student housing is about to move up a grade with Scape announcing today that it has formed a fresh A$1 billion ($658 million) joint venture with the Netherlands’ APG Asset Management and Canadian pension fund manager Ivanhoe Cambridge to add to its portfolio of 17,200 operational apartments.

With Scape having already set a target of 22,000 student beds by the end of this year, the joint venture is seeded with a 1,000-unit project at Melbourne’s Queen Victoria Market, near the University of Melbourne, as the company maintains its focus on creating purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in urban locations close to Australia’s top universities.

“The strategy to develop and operate PBSA properties in key gateway cities in Australia is entirely in line with the urbanisation megatrend, which also aligns with our sustainability aspirations,” APG head of Asia Pacific real estate, Graeme Torre said in a release. “The PBSA sector is often considered the entry level for young renters in the residential sector and as a consequence helps address important issue such as housing affordability and availability.”

APG had backed Scape’s earlier development joint ventures, which were established in 2015 and 2018, with Ivanhoe Cambridge having committed $649 million to the company’s core strategy in 2022.

Record Student Enrollments

“This investment allows us to participate in the institutionalization of the living sector in APAC and support the provision of well-managed, high-quality housing for students,” said George Agethen, head of Asia Pacific for Ivanhoe Cambridge. “The exposure to this development JV complements our recent investment in Scape Core Program and will further diversify our APAC portfolio with defensive cashflows that are driven by the favourable demographics in the region and the demand for quality education in Australia.”

In January, international student enrollments in Australia reached a record 582,636, according to government figures, at the same time that vacancy for rental housing in the country’s core cities hovers at around 1 percent.

Scape sees development of purpose-built student accommodation under the new joint venture as helping to relieve pressure on the rental housing market, and providing safe and designed-for-purpose homes.

The company’s Queen Victoria Market project is part of an A$1.7 billion development which received formal planning approval from the Victorian state government in late March, just one week after Scape, Lendlease and the City of Melbourne signed off on the urban regeneration effort. Construction is expected to begin in the coming months with completion set for the 2028 fiscal year.

Returning Partners

Founded by Stephen Gaitanos and Craig Carracher in 2014, Scape predicts that the explosion in students flocking to the Australia’s major cities over the past ten years is set to continue over the next decade which, alongside a structural undersupply of rental housing and affordability constraints, presents an opportunity for the joint venture.

“We are excited to have high calibre global investors APG and Ivanhoe Cambridge partner with us again in the PBSA sector, for our third develop-to-core JV, following the successful journey we have been on for purpose-built student housing over the past 10 years,” Gaitanos said. “This comes at a very exciting time with our current portfolio at full occupancy and a clear need for more well designed and located rental accommodation in Australia.”

With 10 purpose-built student housing and urban living assets under development set to add to its 36 operational properties, Scape has acquired 22 major project sites since establishing its first development joint venture in 2015.

Having built a team of more than 700 staff, including in-house development, design and operations teams, the company promotes its ability to invest in systems, technology, and security which provide an institutional grade living setting for its tenants and reliable returns for investors.

“Our ambition is to democratise the rental market for students and other renters alike by leveraging our operational scale and delivering inspired intelligent design experiences at value,” Scape’s Carracher said. He added that, “Built on decades of developing and creating living design experiences, our Rent-to-Live model leverages efficiencies of scale and a proven track record of successful place-making and built environments purpose built for the leasing consumer.”

Earlier today, Ivanhoé Cambridge issued a press release stating Scape Australia closed its third PBSA development JV at AUD1.0bn alongside it and APG:

Sydney, Australia, April 9, 2024 – Scape Australia has formed a partnership with Dutch pension investor APG Asset Management N.V. (‘APG’) and Ivanhoé Cambridge, a global real estate investor, to develop Purpose-Built-Student Accommodation (‘PBSA’) assets in Australia’s thriving student housing sector.

The new joint venture, which is subject to regulatory approval, is the third in a series of development JV vehicles (previous JV ventures were established in 2015 and 2018). It will continue Scape’s strategic focus on urban locations close to Australia’s world class Universities, whilst incorporating the next level of design from Scape’s in-house development, design and operational teams. The venture will leverage the significant operational scale (17,200 operational apartments) and an internal team that already manages Australia’s largest privately owned residential-for-rent portfolio.

The joint venture is seeded with a prime development opportunity of circa 1,000 PBSA apartments at Queen Victoria Market in Melbourne This is in partnership with Lendlease, who will develop two separate buildings, and the City of Melbourne, as announced last week.

The strong recovery in international and domestic students and a shortage of student accommodation in Australia has resulted in low vacancy levels and strong rental growth. The development of further purpose-built student accommodation will continue to release pressure from the rental housing market, by providing a safe and purpose-built living solution for students with intelligent design and a low barrier of entry.

Australia’s strong urban student population growth over the past ten years is set to continue over the next decade which, in addition to a structural undersupply of rental housing, strong rental demand and affordability constraints presents a compelling opportunity for the joint venture and will help alleviate the pressure on housing supply in urban city locations.

Stephen Gaitanos and Craig Carracher founded Scape Australia in 2014 and are now the largest residential-for-rent owner and operator in Australia, managing more than 36 operational assets (17,200 apartments) with 10 purpose-built student housing and urban living assets under development. The private group is a fully integrated, end-to-end specialist residential accommodation platform with over 700 staff and has acquired 22 major development sites since 2015. The platform’s scale is unmatched in Australia’s residential living sector and allows for superior investment in systems, technology, safety, security and the entire rental experience.

APG Head of Asia Pacific Real Estate, Graeme Torre, said: “The strategy to develop and operate PBSA properties in key gateway cities in Australia is entirely in line with the urbanisation megatrend, which also aligns with our sustainability aspirations. The PBSA sector is often considered the entry level for young renters in the residential sector and as a consequence helps address important issue such as housing affordability and availability. Professionally managed student accommodation buildings with improved energy efficiency and carbon footprint support our goals around responsible impact investing. We have had a very successful partnership with the Scape team who have proven themselves to be capable of developing and managing first class student accommodation assets

Ivanhoé Cambridge Head of Asia Pacific, George Agethen, said: “We are pleased to enter into this new strategic development partnership with Scape in the Australian student housing sector. This investment allows us to participate in the institutionalization of the living sector in APAC and support the provision of well-managed, high-quality housing for students. The exposure to this development JV complements our recent investment in Scape Core Program and will further diversify our APAC portfolio with defensive cashflows that are driven by the favourable demographics in the region and the demand for quality education in Australia.

Stephen Gaitanos said: “We are excited to have high calibre global investors APG and Ivanhoé Cambridge partner with us again in the PBSA sector, for our third develop-to-core JV, following the successful journey we have been on for purpose-built student housing over the past 10 years. This comes at a very exciting time with our current portfolio at full occupancy and a clear need for more well designed and located rental accommodation in Australia. We look forward to continuing to grow this new venture and development pipeline on our pathway as Australia’s largest end-to-end specialist residential rental and operating accommodation platform.”

“Through our vertically integrated platform we manage every aspect of the asset creation process and ongoing operations – a platform designed to ensure the communities we create and manage provide exceptional outcomes for both our (student) residents and investors.”

Craig Carracher said: Our ambition is to democratise the rental market for students and other renters alike by leveraging our operational scale and delivering inspired intelligent design experiences at value. As the leading local operator in the residential for rent sector, we have a clear and scalable value proposition for PBSA and rental housing in Australia and are proud to partner with APG and Ivanhoé Cambridge – both global leading investors in the Living sector, for our third PBSA development JV in Australia.”

“Built on decades of developing and creating living design experiences, our Rent-to-Live model leverages efficiencies of scale and a proven track record of successful place-making and built environments purpose built for the leasing consumer.”

Alright, so Ivanhoé Cambridge and APG have partnered up with Scape on a third joint venture to build more purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in urban locations close to Australia’s top universities.

 Scape is obviously an excellent partner to have in such a joint venture as it has experience buying the land to be developed, building and operating these units:

With 10 purpose-built student housing and urban living assets under development set to add to its 36 operational properties, Scape has acquired 22 major project sites since establishing its first development joint venture in 2015.

Having built a team of more than 700 staff, including in-house development, design and operations teams, the company promotes its ability to invest in systems, technology, and security which provide an institutional grade living setting for its tenants and reliable returns for investors.

I'd like to hone in on what Ivanhoé Cambridge Head of Asia Pacific, George Agethen, said on his deal: 

We are pleased to enter into this new strategic development partnership with Scape in the Australian student housing sector. This investment allows us to participate in the institutionalization of the living sector in APAC and support the provision of well-managed, high-quality housing for students. The exposure to this development JV complements our recent investment in Scape Core Program and will further diversify our APAC portfolio with defensive cashflows that are driven by the favourable demographics in the region and the demand for quality education in Australia.

Big pension funds invest in big student housing programs because they're recession-proof businesses that add defensive cashflows to their portfolio.

This is critically important, it's not just about demographics or international student enrollments in Australia reaching a record 582,636 in January. 

That's obviously important, but there's a defensive component to purpose-built student accommodation that pension funds find very attractive.

What about Canada? Canada's immigration Minister Marc Miller recently set a limit of 606,000 study permit applications for international students for 2024. Originally targeting 485,000 new students, adjustments were made for extensions and exemptions, leading to a revised target of 364,000 approved study permits.

The problem here is the student housing market is very fragmented, I had covered the market back in 2018 when Jonathan Turnbull, former Managing Partner at Alignvest Student Housing, sent me a guest comment on institutional grade student housing investment opportunities in Canada (read it here).

Apart from Alignvest, nobody is really tackling this market in Canada the same way Scape in Australia or other operators in the UK or US are doing (Alignvest is small potatoes in Canada).

Canada has great universities and specialized student housing has only recently taken off, we are in the Dark Ages relative to the US, UK and Australia.

Just go around Montreal, Toronto, London, Kingston, Vancouver etc and show me purpose-built student accommodations that compares to anything in other countries I cited.

Interestingly, last summer, the Government of Quebec and CDPQ announced the conclusion of an agreement in principle to conduct a feasibility study on converting a portion of the old Royal Victoria Hospital site into a world-class inter-university campus:

Through this pubic-private partnership, the proposed project will involve creating an inter-university campus that will consist mainly of student housing, as well as a research incubator, local shops and offices. This initiative is in line with the spirit of discussions held during hearings on the site redevelopment project led by the Office de consultation publique de Montréal. This project will contribute to strengthening Montréal’s role as a leading university city and significantly expand student housing, which is in short supply.

Located in the heart of the Mount Royal heritage site, the project will be developed with due regard to the built and natural heritage and in consultation with the community and stakeholders.

Following the feasibility study, which will be conducted by Ivanhoé Cambridge, CDPQ’s real estate subsidiary, the government will decide if it will award the project to CDPQ for execution. If applicable, a development agreement will be concluded at that time. CDPQ aims to present the government with a solution in 12 to 18 months.

In my opinion, that project can't come soon enough and will ease the affordability crisis in the city of Montreal. 

Like I said, in Canada, we are behind the student housing curve, we need a private company like Scape to set up operations here.

It's also worth noting that student housing isn't new, most, if not all of Canada's large pension funds have been investing in this space and continue to do so.

For example, last week, CPP Investments announced it has established a new real estate investment and operating platform focused on purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in continental Europe:

CPP Investments is forming this platform through its acquisition of Round Hill Capital’s minority stake in Round Hill European Student Accommodation Partnership (our existing joint venture), and the full acquisition of Nido Living, a leading European PBSA operator and manager. Through these combined transactions, CPP Investments is investing up to C$40 million in the platform.

Operating as Nido, the platform will be backed by CPP Investments’ real estate investment strategy and will be a wholly owned, but independently operated portfolio company with pan-European exposure. Going forward, the company will be focused on investing in and expanding the existing CPP Investments owned portfolio of over 5,000 beds, the majority of which has been operated by Nido since acquisition.

“CPP Investments and Nido together are well placed to meet the increasing demand across Europe for high-quality PBSA,” said Tom Jackson, Managing Director, Head of Real Estate Europe at CPP Investments. “Premium quality and affordable student housing is in high demand due to increased student mobility and growing participation in higher education. In Europe, student populations are increasing as labour markets upskill, resulting in growing pressure for accommodation, positioning this platform well to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns for the CPP Fund.”

In addition to managing the existing CPP Investments portfolio, Nido will continue to manage high-quality PBSA assets for other international investors. Nido will continue to provide a best-in-class service to customers during this transition. Nido, established in 2007, is a European market leader and was recently awarded ‘International Operator of the Year’ at the 2023 Property Week Student Accommodation Awards and ‘Best Private Housing, Europe’ by the 2023 Global Student Living Index. Nido’s focus on driving value for both investors and residents fits well with CPP Investments’ approach to the sector. Initially, core target growth markets will be Germany, Italy and Spain, focusing on acquiring and developing additional assets to continue to build a diversified pan-European portfolio.

Back in November of last year, BCI's Quadreal Property Group announced it has acquired CA Student Living, the student housing division of Chicago-based CA Ventures:

QuadReal Property Group, a global real estate investment, operating and development company headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, announced it has recently acquired the U.S. student housing business of CA Ventures. Under QuadReal’s ownership CA Student Living (“CASL”) will operate as a new brand, Article Student Living.  

The acquisition of the U.S. student housing business supports QuadReal’s long term investment strategy in the sector where it continues to have high conviction. QuadReal first became a real estate partner of CASL in 2017 and has held an indirect passive stake in the business since September 2020.  

“We are thrilled to launch Article Student Living, which represents a key part of QuadReal’s long-term investment strategy in the U.S. Article’s 500 employees are passionate about elevating student living and delivering operational excellence, and we will continue to build on their existing momentum and commitment to bring a best-in-class experience to our residents and partners,” said Dennis Lopez, Chief Executive Officer, QuadReal Property Group. 

The full acquisition will enable QuadReal to combine capabilities, resources, and best practices and create the leading real estate investment manager dedicated to U.S. student housing.  Its aim will be to meticulously craft living spaces that inspire growth and foster learning and connection.  

“We have witnessed firsthand QuadReal’s unwavering commitment to the success of our team since we first partnered,” said Thierry Keable, President, Article Student Living. “Today marks an important milestone in our journey together. Our new brand represents our commitment to deliver quality and strong performance. At Article Student Living, we strive to offer students more than a place to stay. We build and provide vibrant hubs of learning and connection.” 

To learn more about Article Student Living including services, properties and career opportunities, visit www.articlestudentliving.com.

As you can see, student housing is a high conviction area for the real estate groups at all of Canada's large pension funds.

Lastly. since I am talking about real estate, last week, Ivanhoé Cambridge, PSP Investments and Greystar announced the final completion and grand opening of, 13-story, 230-unit residential complex located at 600 Park Ave W in Denver’s historic Five Points neighborhood:

“We’re excited to be celebrating the grand opening of The Dorsey alongside Greystar, PSP and the numerous additional collaborators that played an integral role in bringing this sustainable project to its successful completion,” said Eric Desjardins, Senior Director, Investments, U.S. Residential at Ivanhoé Cambridge. “Denver is an attractive city with a balance of live, work and play and we’re thrilled to deliver a new green residential offering with dedicated co-working spaces that meets the continuously evolving demand in the Mile High City, while simultaneously aligning with our inherent commitment to sustainable investment.”

“We’re thrilled to announce the completion of The Dorsey,” said Hailey Vergatos, Senior Director for Development Services at Greystar. “The Dorsey’s strategic location offers residents ease of transportation and proximity to Downtown Denver. Greystar is committed to providing exceptional living experiences for our residents, and we look forward to welcoming a new community to the Five Points neighborhood.”

The Dorsey is comprised of 230 units, a mix of 40 studios, 143 one-bedroom, and 47 two-bedroom residences, featuring a wide range of in-unit features including the choice of two modern color themes, quartz countertops and backsplashes, stainless steel appliances, in-unit washers and dryers, wood flooring, smart locks and thermostats and a complimentary Wi-Fi offering in each apartment.

Building and shared resident amenity spaces include a sun deck and pool, a state-of-the-art fitness center and wellness studio, an entertainment kitchen, a lounge, co-working and private office spaces. Additionally, The Dorsey includes a pet wash station with grooming services available to residents by Wag N’Wash, a ski and bike repair area, and on-site parking equipped with EV charging stations.

Located in the heart of Downtown within the Five Point’s region, The Dorsey is situated within close walking distance to a variety of dining, shopping and entertainment offerings, earning a strong walk score of 95. The Dorsey has additionally received a bike score of 99 and transit score of 76 due to its central location and ease of access to multiple regional light rail, bus stations and major area roadways inclusive of I-25.

For more information on The Dorsey and to contact the team, please visit here.

This is obviously more upscale living than student housing and plays on another recession-proof theme, the continuation of income inequality in the US and around the world.

Below, international students give you a tour of Scape student accommodations in Melbourne, Australia. 

You'll notice it's no frills, nice, clean and safe, with safety being the primary factor as to why students choose to rent there. We can easily create similar purpose-built student accommodation in Montreal and other Canadian cities lacking such accommodations (governments at all levels, pay attention).

IMCO Posts 5.6% Return in 2023

Pension Pulse -

James Bradshaw of the Globe and Mail reports unrest in commercial real estate that detracted from otherwise solid performance has settled, hopes IMCO CEO:

The CEO of Investment Management Corporation of Ontario says he is hopeful that the turmoil in commercial real estate has bottomed out after losses on investments in the sector dragged down otherwise solid performance from the pension-fund manager last year.

IMCO reported an average return of 5.6 per cent in 2023, but missed its benchmark of 6.6 per cent, as its $9.8-billion real estate portfolio lost 13 per cent for the year, against a benchmark loss of 12.1 per cent. The pension-fund manager’s real estate investments suffered from the fact that 53 per cent of the portfolio is in office and real estate holdings, which have been hardest hit by changing habits such as remote working and online shopping.

IMCO has been gradually trimming its exposure to office and retail, redeploying the proceeds into multi-residential and logistics properties that are performing better. But with real estate deal-making at a low ebb, it is hard to revamp the portfolio quickly.

“We’re hopeful that the worst is behind us,” said Bert Clark, the chief executive officer, in an interview Thursday. “It’s still going to be an area that requires some heavy lifting on our part.”

In 2023, investing markets were volatile, as high interest rates and inflation put pressure on asset values and drove up borrowing costs, while economic and geopolitical uncertainty loomed over public markets. But the overall investing outcome was much better than in 2022, when IMCO’s investments lost an average of 8.1 per cent.

The pension-fund manager’s total assets increased to $77.4-billion, from $73.3-billion a year earlier, and IMCO also added four new clients. Its investments in public stocks and bonds returned 18 per cent and 5.8 per cent.

In 2023, IMCO “had very solid results” that are “in the range” of the pension fund’s long-term targets, Mr. Clark said. The returns better reflect the mix of assets and the investing strategy that the pension-fund manager has been building since it launched in 2017, by gradually replacing some of the investments it inherited when its clients joined with a more modern, lower-cost portfolio that takes advantage of IMCO’s larger size.

IMCO was created to consolidate investing for several public-sector pension funds and now has eight clients, the largest of which are the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board and the Ontario Pension Board. Last year, it set up new global credit and private equity pools, allowing it to combine funds contributed by different clients to make more concentrated investments in private companies and loans at a larger scale.

“We don’t have all of our clients in the asset mix that we would recommend, but we’re getting close and by the end of this year, we will be a lot closer,” Mr. Clark said.

About 31 per cent of IMCO’s assets are invested in Canada, slightly above the average for the country’s largest pension funds, which collectively manage trillions of dollars and are embroiled in a public debate about whether they should be incentivized or directed to invest more domestically.

Ottawa has said it intends to work with pension funds to encourage more investment in Canada, and Mr. Clark said it is “entirely appropriate” for government to convene a conversation about how to boost the range of investment opportunities in Canada.

“Creating more investment opportunities in Canada is a good thing for us, it’s a good thing for the country,” he said. “Having more investment in Canada in the same number of investment opportunities isn’t good for us, and I don’t know that it does anything from a public policy perspective either.”

Steve Randall of Wealth Professional also reports Ontario pensions' investment manager posts 5.6% one-year return:

The investment manager responsible for generating returns for several Ontario pension funds has reported a one-year weighted average net return of its clients' portfolios of 5.6% for 2023.

The Investment Management Company of Ontario (IMCO) has seen AUM rise to $77.4 billion in the last year, up from $73.3 billion in 2022.

The year was not as easy one with volatility in the markets and ongoing inflation, but IMCO managed to navigate the choppy waters and deliver positive returns for every asset class (led by 18% for public equities) with the exception of real estate which posted negative 13%, more than its -12.1% benchmark.

The positive tone of its latest annual report includes an additional four clients that have chosen it to manage their assets, which will add $2.6 billion in new portfolio assets.

With the important focus on a greener economy, IMCO invested over $1 billion in clean energy transition assets in 2023. This marks significant progress towards its Climate Action Plan and goal of committing $5 billion towards energy transition investments by 2027.

Private equity

It also launched its Global Credit and Private Equity Pools and its Private Equity team invested $988 million of capital across 11 direct and co-investment deals in a variety of different sectors and geographies.

"Our long-term investment approach has enabled IMCO to navigate market volatility effectively, particularly in private markets such as Global Credit, Infrastructure and Private Equity – which have shown positive performance and value add since we began investing on behalf of our clients four years ago," said Rossitsa Stoyanova, Chief Investment Officer of IMCO. "2023 was marked by significant transactions and investments in energy transition, which further diversified our investment portfolio while evolving asset class strategies in areas of competitive advantage."

The organization operates under an independent, not-for-profit, cost recovery structure, and is one of Canada’s largest institutional investors.

"We are very pleased with the overall results we achieved for our clients in 2023," said Bert Clark, President and CEO of IMCO. "In a year marked by persistent inflation and market volatility, our results reflect the success of the strategic changes we have made to clients' asset mix and our new strategies at the asset class levels."

Layan Odeh of Bloomberg also reports Ontario pension fund preaches patience in private equity's long winter:

Private equity firms have been slow to cash out of holdings and hand money back to their investors. Executives at Investment Management Corp. of Ontario say they’re ready if that trend continues.

“Most of our partners will probably say that the worst is over. We are just patient,” said Rossitsa Stoyanova, chief investment officer of the $77.4 billion (US$57 billion) Canadian pension manager. “We are prepared that we are not going to have exits for a while.” 

Private equity firms have seen a dramatic change in the investment climate since interest rates began their rapid climb in 2022. The high cost of borrowing has made it harder for them to finance new acquisitions, or find buyers for the assets they already hold at valuations they’ll find attractive. 

Still, there have been signs of a thaw in deal activity so far in 2024 now that it appears the Federal Reserve and other central banks are poised to start lowering interest rates. 

Overall, IMCO posted a 5.6 per cent return last year, underperforming the benchmark of 6.6 per cent, according to a statement Friday. The fund had positive returns in every major asset class except real estate, where it lost 13 per cent. It outperformed the benchmark in public stocks and fixed income, but undershot on private equity.


“It’s not that we saw something happening in 2023, or we were contrarians, Chief Executive Officer Bert Clark said in an interview. “We held to our long-term strategies and it worked.”

IMCO is a relative young organization, launched less than a decade ago to consolidate the management of a number of retirement funds for government workers in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province. As such, it’s still building up some of its investing programs, including private equity and private credit. 

Last year, the Toronto-based manager allocated $509 million to three new private equity partners, including European buyout funds managed by Cinven Capital and IK Investment Partners, and did nearly $1 billion in direct and co-investment PE deals. 

The fund has also been growing its credit business, investing in everything from investment grade credit to structured private credit through external fund managers and co-investments — including allocations to funds run by Ares Management, Carlyle Group and Blackstone. 

IMCO boosted its activity in private credit last year, raising it to nearly 50 per cent of the global credit portfolio as of December. Management plans to increase that to 70 per cent, according to the fund’s annual report. 

IMCO is also look for exposure exposure to the infrastructure that supports the energy transition and artificial intelligence, according to Stoyanova. Last year, the fund committed $400 million in Northvolt AB, a Swedish sustainable battery company, via convertible notes. And it invested $150 million in CoreWeave, a cloud-computing firm. 

IMCO sold some of its stakes in infrastructure funds in the secondary market and may do the same in private equity funds in the future “to make room for direct investments or to commit to the fund manager’s next vintage,” Stoyanova said.     

Office buildings and retail assets were 53 per cent of Imco’s property holdings as of Dec. 31, with a heavy tilt toward Canada. 

IMCO, which inherited a big chunk of its property portfolio from the pension funds it assumed control of years ago, has been diversifying into European and U.S. real estate, according to Stoyanova. Last year, the pension fund disposed of around $1 billion in Canadian real estate assets. “Obviously in order to transform it, we need to dispose assets to get dry powder to buy new ones,” she said. 

On Friday, IMCO issued a press release stating it posted a one-year return of 5.6% in 2023:

TORONTO (April 5, 2024) – The Investment Management Corporation of Ontario (IMCO) today announced that the weighted average net return of its clients' portfolios was 5.6% for the year that ended December 31, 2023, while assets under management rose to $77.4 billion.

Despite facing heightened volatility and ongoing inflation, all asset classes, except for Real Estate, generated positive returns. The strong investment performance for the year established a solid foundation for IMCO to execute its ambitious five-year strategy, with 2023 marking the inaugural year of this plan.

2023 HIGHLIGHTS

  • Delivered strong investment performance, achieving a one-year weighted average net return of 5.6%.
  • Increased assets under management to $77.4 billion, up from $73.3 billion a year earlier.
  • Selected by four new clients to provide investment management services, which will add $2.6 billion in new portfolio assets.
  • Invested over $1 billion in clean energy transition assets, marking significant progress towards IMCO’s Climate Action Plan and goal of committing $5 billion towards energy transition investments by 2027.
  • Achieved a Greater Toronto Top Employer for 2024 recognition by Canada's Top 100 Employers.
  • Launched IMCO's Global Credit and Private Equity Pools, securing benefits for clients including lower fees, better asset diversification, and lower risk concentrations.

QUOTES

Bert Clark, President and CEO
"We are very pleased with the overall results we achieved for our clients in 2023," said Bert Clark, President and CEO of IMCO. "In a year marked by persistent inflation and market volatility, our results reflect the success of the strategic changes we have made to clients' asset mix and our new strategies at the asset class levels."

"Last year, IMCO was also chosen by four new clients, a testament to our fundamental approach to identifying differentiated, global investment opportunities, our sophisticated risk management approach and our leading sustainable investing practices," added Clark.

Rossitsa Stoyanova, Chief Investment Officer
"Our long-term investment approach has enabled IMCO to navigate market volatility effectively, particularly in private markets such as Global Credit, Infrastructure and Private Equity - which have shown positive performance and value add since we began investing on behalf of our clients four years ago," said Rossitsa Stoyanova, Chief Investment Officer of IMCO. "2023 was marked by significant transactions and investments in energy transition, which further diversified our investment portfolio while evolving asset class strategies in areas of competitive advantage."

"Looking ahead, we’re committed to taking the long view by providing customized strategic asset allocation advice, leveraging our internalized investment management expertise, and fostering deep strategic partnerships ensuring we can deliver long-term, sustainable growth for our clients," said Stoyanova.

2023 SELECT TRANSACTIONS

  • IMCO committed US$400 million to Northvolt, a leading integrated battery platform focused on the research and development, manufacturing, and recycling of sustainable battery cells and systems. This investment marked IMCO's first cross-asset-class transaction, made jointly by our Fundamental Equities and Infrastructure teams, reflecting a shared priority to manage climate change while creating long-term value and enabling the global transition to a net zero emissions economy.
  • IMCO's Global Infrastructure team committed US$750 million, together with strategic partners Sandbrook and PSP Investments, to acquire and grow NeXtWind Capital Ltd, a German-based renewable firm specializing in the repowering of European wind farms coming to the end of their useful life.
  • IMCO’s Global Infrastructure team also invested in Cellnex Nordics, a leading Scandinavian tower operator, bolstering IMCO's presence in the digital infrastructure space.
  • IMCO's Private Equity team invested $988 million of capital across 11 direct and co-investment deals in a variety of different sectors and geographies, including a co-investment alongside Kohlberg in Worldwide Clinical Trials, and a co-investment alongside EagleTree Capital in MMGY Global.
  • IMCO Fundamental Equities' team invested US$150 million in CoreWeave, a leading specialized GPU cloud provider. The company provides cloud infrastructure for generative AI, and adds risk-managed, high-growth exposure to the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence applications.
  • IMCO committed to its first direct real estate investment outside North America in Trinity House, a state-of-the-art life science laboratory project located in Oxford, England, alongside strategic partner Breakthrough Properties.

Take the time to download and read IMCO's 2023 Annual Report here, I will be referring to it.

On Friday, I reached out to IMCO to chat with CEO Bert Clark and CIO Rossitsa Stoyanova and was told by Neil Murphy: "I looked into your request. Unfortunately, and with apologies, Bert and Rossitsa are both tied up today and Monday."

That didn't sit well with me for the simple reason that I have better things to do with my time than cover IMCO's 2023 results and would have appreciated a detailed discussion on their results (if other CEOs and CIOs make time to chat with me, surely Bert or Rossitsa can).

Anyway, saves me time talking and transcribing things but just remember this, reporters are not trained investment professionals, they are not trained to analyze results in-depth, nor do they know the right way to look at things and place in proper context.

Let me begin by stating IMCO's 2023 results were decent even if they underperformed their benchmark by 100 basis points, and in line with what large Canadian peers delivered who had similar exposure to public markets (CDPQ, HOOPP).

The story remains consistent, weakness in private markets, especially real estate (where IMCO has legacy issues) and decent returns in public markets. 

And once again, the asset mix explains 99% of the returns.


Next, let's read Chair Brian Gibson's report:


It's worth noting this part:

Positioning its clients to achieve long-term growth and minimize potential losses is the cornerstone of IMCO’s approach. Over the last four years we witnessed a global pandemic, major geopolitical events, and dramatic increases in inflation. IMCO’s focus on risk management and working with clients to advise them on their strategic asset allocations have never been more important.

Next, let's read President and CEO Bert Clark's report:



I note the following:

The weighted average net return of all client portfolios was 5.6 per cent in 2023. Despite a backdrop of volatility and ongoing inflation, IMCO performed well. All asset classes, except for Real Estate, generated positive returns. 

Our results are beginning to reflect the long-term work we’ve done with most clients to adjust their asset mix and reposition our asset class strategies. We expect to see continued improvement in results over the coming years as we help all clients optimize their asset mixes and fully dispose of off-strategy legacy assets.

Now, let's look at 4-year returns by asset class and for total fund:

As shown, over the last four years, IMCO has returned 2.9% edging its benchmark return of 2.8%.

Four-year returns matter because that's what determines value add and compensation which I'll discuss below.

Needless to say, four-year results are average at best and mostly owing to IMCO's public market exposure, not to its new strategies which it fully implemented last year.

Next, let's read the Q&A with IMCO's CIO Rossitsa Stoyanova:


 

 Again, note the focus on long-term performance:

Taking a long-term view is essential for two reasons. First, this approach avoids the pitfalls of a short-sighted or ‘yo-yo’ strategy, which can be detrimental in a fluctuating market environment. If you consider the market volatility in the past 18 months alone, we went from public markets being depressed due to rising interest rates in 2022, to a dramatic upswing in public markets in the third quarter of 2023—a year that defied recession expectations. 

We do not time the markets or react to market events. We believe that maintaining conviction in the long-term investment strategy and asset mix, and staying disciplined in our execution is the best approach to delivering strong, sustainable, risk-adjusted returns. Second, our ability to invest for the long-term is a competitive advantage. The ability to hold illiquid assets and withstand short-term noise necessitates taking the long view. In particular, our private investments need time to mature and demonstrate results. 

We assess our investment strategies’ effectiveness over a minimum of five years. Our patient, long-term focus, beyond immediate market reactions, enables our clients to meet their financial obligations decades into the future.

I have nothing against her response, pretty much standard pension fund verbiage in Canada, everyone wants to focus on long-term especially during rough years to smooth returns and justify their compensation, but just keep in mind that IMCO only fully implemented its new strategy last year (2023) so we will only see the real effectiveness of this strategy in 2028 and beyond if we truly focus on long-term performance and value add.

What are some of the bright spots? Rossitsa notes:

Several of our private market strategies, including Global Credit, Infrastructure, and Private Equity, are generating substantially positive net value add, on an inception-to- date basis. They are on the right track to benefitting from the significant progress we’ve made in internalizing our investment activities and have yet to reach their full potential. Internalization enables us to achieve outsized returns and manage risks, which we will begin to see through the multiple direct and co-investments we’ve made this year.

Note that IMCO is still ramping up its Private Equity co-investment program and as Rossitsa stated in the Bloomberg article above, they are diversifying vintage year risk and going more direct (through co-investments) to lower fee drag.

As far as performance, from table above, over the last four years, Global Infrastructure returned 6.5% vs benchmark of 2%, Global Credit 3.3% vs 0.5% for its benchmark, and Private Equity 17.3% vs 6.9% for its benchmark.

No doubt, there is outpeformance there but the first thing that came to mind is what exactly are IMCO's benchmarks for each asset class and how are they determined?

From page 27 of the Annual Report:

I note:

The IMCO investment policy statement (IPS) for each asset class contains one market-based or custom benchmark. A benchmark is a standard against which performance can be measured. Typically, a relevant market index or a combination of market indexes is used. This allows investment managers to compare the results of active management to the results that could have been achieved passively by investing in an index. A benchmark can be used to calculate how much value an active manager has provided, and what strategies or assets affected relative performance. 

NVA is the difference between investment returns of an asset class, net of all direct and indirect costs, and its respective IPS benchmark. When NVA is positive, the strategy is said to have outperformed its benchmark. When NVA is negative, the strategy underperformed its benchmark. IMCO has a benchmark policy that governs the process of recommending and establishing benchmarks. Our Risk function is responsible for the research, analysis, and review of benchmarks. The Management Investment Committee reviews and recommends benchmarks and any changes in benchmarks to the Board, which is responsible for approving the IMCO benchmarks.

I wonder if the Board also uses independent third party experts to thoroughly review IMCO's benchmarks for each asset class, all part of what I've been discussing lately on the importance of third party independent performance audit reviews at Canada's large pension funds.

Anyway, the benchmark for Real Estate is a custom benchmark which is probably the cost of capital, the benchmark for Global Infrastructure is the Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index which is designed to measure the performance of pure-play infrastructure companies domiciled globally (these are listed infrastructure companies, lots of beta in this index). 

The benchmark for Global Credit is 40% ICE Bank of America Global Corporate Index and 60% ICE Bank of America Global High Yield Index, which is fine and for Private Equity it's a custom benchmark again, so no details on that benchmark.

Importantly, benchmark transparency is the hallmark of excellent pension governance. Without knowing what the benchmarks are for each asset class, how do you properly determine the net value add and whether it reflects the right risks being taken to achieve it?

Admittedly, this isn't just an IMCO issue, it's widespread at Canada's large pension funds but I would say some funds (like AIMCo and OTPP) are better than others are explaining their benchmarks.

And yes, there are no perfect benchmarks for private markets but there is a way to effectively communicate what they're trying to do and to do this properly, you need benchmark transparency.

What else is missing from IMCO's annual report?

Curiously, there's no mention whatsoever of foreign exchange gains or losses for 2023.

As shown below, IMCO primarily invests in Canada and the United States:


So what exactly are the currency gains or losses for last year? All they show is net investment returns by asset class:

Again, I found that strange as every major Canadian pension fund typically has a page or box discussing the impact of currencies on total portfolio (maybe I missed it but looked carefully and searched PDF file).

Alright, let me wrap it up with the executive compensation table and some tidbits:

First, there is a detailed discussion on compensation starting on page 74 of the annual report.

Second, it's important to note that IMCO is a relatively new fund in that it started its operations only a few years ago and it needs to attract and retain top talent to properly implement its strategy.

Having said this, Bert Clark was paid in line with his larger peers for what I deem as average four-year returns which basically matched the benchmark and unlike his CEO peers, he's still very much the new kid on the block and hasn't reached their experience yet.

As far as CIO Rossitsa Stoyanova, she's not only the highest paid female CIO in the world, her total compensation put her among the top paid CIOs in Canada and the world, period, and for average performance (she's a great CIO but let's not exaggerate these long-term results).

To be fair, IMCO is just rolling out its strategy and we will only know in 2028 after five full years of implementing this strategy its true long-term effectiveness, but man, when I see these figures for average four-year results, just doesn't sit well with me at all and I'd love to have been a fly on the wall when IMCO's compensation committee approved these payouts.

And let me be clear despite what Bert Clark, Rossitsa Stoyanova, Gordon Fyfe or anyone else thinks, I have absolutely nothing personal against anyone in Canada's pension world, I just call it like I see it. Sometimes I may ruffle some feathers along the way but I stick to facts, nothing personal.

In my world of brutal capitalism, there are no multi-million-dollar bonuses based on beating custom benchmarks over a four-year period. All there is is risking personal capital to make returns and pay the mounting bills for my growing family, so when I see these hefty payouts and then (some) pension fund managers hesitate to support my valuable contributions, it really irks me.

"Leo, you should be a CEO/ CIO of a Maple Eight Fund."

Maybe in another life but to be truthful, at my age and with what I've lived through, I have zero interest and zero patience for doing what they do, answering to Board members, tied up in dreadfully boring meetings all day which would take away time from analyzing markets and doing other things I enjoy.

So, no thank you, from that vantage point, they deserve millions because I couldn't do it and talk up sustainable investing and other agendas of the day, my focus is just making money anywhere I see fit.

I'll never win the Order of Canada, Quebec or British Columbia and I'm fine with that, I'll just focus on delivering great content on my blog day in and day out (like I said, I'll do this as long as I enjoy it).

Below,  Lawrence H. Summers, former US Treasury Secretary and Wall Street Week contributor, says the evidence is overwhelming that the neutral rate is higher than the US Federal Reserve supposes and says it would be a policy mistake for the Fed to cut rates in June. Summers speaks to David Westin.

Take the time to really listen carefully to Summers as we await the Bank of Canada decision mid-week and the Fed's decision in June and think carefully of all the risks out there, inflationary and deflationary.

A Multi-Trillion Dollar Migration of Capital to Inflation Assets?

Pension Pulse -

Jennifer Sor of Business Insider reports a multi-trillion-dollar bull market is coming for assets that benefit from higher inflation, top macro strategist says:

There's an enormous bull market coming for assets that will benefit from stubbornly high inflation, according to top strategist Larry McDonald.

The "Bear Traps Report" author and former head of US macro strategy at Société Générale cast a warning over high prices in the economy, predicting that inflation would remain consistently above the Fed's 2% target for years to come. Prices will likely range between 3%-4% over the next decade, he predicted in a recent interview on Blockwork's Forward Guidance podcast.

"You've got all these sources of sustained inflation coming at us," McDonald said, pointing to price pressures stemming from reshoring, government stimulus, and a strong labor market.

Those pressures are exacerbated by the fact that geopolitical conflict is on the rise. War itself is inflationary, McDonald said, pointing to the stagflationary crisis in the 70s that coincided with the Vietnam War. 

"So we're coming into this more sustained inflationary regime," he warned.

But that could actually be good news for "inflation beneficiaries" — or areas of the market that will actually soar as prices remain elevated. Those beneficiaries include assets like nickel, aluminum, uranium, copper, gold, oil, and gas, McDonald said, estimating that the energy grid alone was likely worth around $2 trillion.

The shift will pull a tremendous amount of money from popular growth stocks, like the Magnificent Seven, to hard assets and commodities, he added. Some of those assets are already seeing an uptick in interest, with gold prices surging to a record high this week. 

"We're talking about a multi-trillion dollar migration of capital and nobody's prepared for it," McDonald said.

Investors, though, are largely expecting inflation to return to back to its long-run target over the next year. 1-year inflation expectations dropped to 2.07% in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Prices have already cooled dramatically from their highs of 2022, with consumer prices rising just 3.2% in February.

McDonald is among Wall Street's most bearish prognosticators at the moment, repeatedly sounding the alarm on stocks and the path of inflation. In March, he predicted the stock market could crash as much as 30% over the next two months, thanks to the impact of higher interest rates on the economy. He made the same prediction in 2023, the year stocks actually soared 25% higher.

Alright, Friday afternoon and time to talk markets and focus our attention on an important macro theme, namely, are we on the cusp of another 1970s style inflation boomerang?

If you've been paying attention to commodity markets lately, that seems to be what the market is hinting at (source: Trading Economics):


Many commodities are making a record high including gold prices surging to record levels (source: Trading Economics):

And long bond yields keep creeping higher as the economic data comes in better than expected and the federal deficit swells:


So what is going on? Is this just all about geopolitical tensions or is the market sniffing out a new, more sustained inflation regime that Larry McDonald is warning of?

Well, that's an important question because if we are indeed on the heels of another 1970s-style inflation episode, it means inflation expectations will creep up along with rates and that has implications for pensions managing assets and liabilities.

On the positive front, an increase in rates means a better funded status for corporate and state pensions.

On the negative side, a sustained higher inflation regime will usher in higher rates for longer which means some assets like nominal bonds and real estate will continue to struggle.

I discussed some of this in a recent comment here.

In public equities, higher rates will hurt high yielding stocks which many retirees count on to make extra income during retirement (stocks decline, yields go up but capital losses swamp that extra yield).

So where are pensions to hide in a higher for longer environment?

Well, commodities (including agriculture), infrastructure where contracts are indexed to inflation, natural resources, private equity (selectively) and private credit where rates are floating.

Are there any structural deflationary forces out there?

Yes, there are plenty. Global debt levels are at record levels, aging demographics, there's a looming retirement crisis in China and around the world, artificial intelligence is on the rise and quite frankly, we are one financial crisis away from the next deflationary episode.

The Fed has a lot of challenges to navigate here and I fear those challenges will become more evident in the second half of the year.

Given the better than expected economic data, it's not surprising that some Fed officials are dialing back rate cut expectations:

But if you sratch beneath the surface, you'll see the US economy is slowing:

And even in gold, miners aren't confirming a breakout here:

All this to say, take all inflationary or deflationary macro calls with a grain of salt here, we simply don't know how events will transpire in the second half of the year.

Betting on a multi-trillion dollar migration of capital into inflation assets might pan out, but if it doesn't, those investors will suffer steep losses.

Below, James Bullard, Purdue University's Business School Dean and former St. Louis Fed President, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the March jobs report, the impact on the Fed's interest rate path, state of the economy, and more.

Second, Lawrence H. Summers, former US Treasury Secretary and Wall Street Week contributor, says the evidence is overwhelming that the neutral rate is higher than the US Federal Reserve supposes and says it would be a policy mistake for the Fed to cut rates in June. Summers speaks to David Westin.

Third, Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the Wharton School, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to share his reaction to the March jobs report, potential rate cuts, and earnings expectations.

Fourth, Ralph Schlosstein, Evercore chair emeritus, discusses the state of the US economy, wealth disparity and geopolitical risks with Alix Steel and Romaine Bostick on Bloomberg Television.

Fifth, Seth Harris, senior fellow at the Burnes Center for Social Change, joins CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to breakdown the March labor data, economic outlook, and more.

Sixth, Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, and CNBC's Steve Liesman discuss Friday's higher-than-expected jobs report and what it means for the Fed and markets.

Seventh, Tiffany Wilding, Pimco's chief US economist, says the US economy is running hot and the Federal Reserve can wait on rate cuts.

Eighth, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari says interest-rate cuts may not be needed this year if progress on inflation stalls during a virtual event with LinkedIn.

Ninth, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Wednesday that the central bank expects the need to cut interest rates this year, despite the recent stronger-than-expected economic activity. Photo: Loren Elliott/Bloomberg News.

Lastly, take the time to listen to Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of the book “How To Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy,” as he speaks with Julia La Roche to discuss why he thinks trillions are misallocated.

China's Looming Retirement Crisis Highlights Global Crisis

Pension Pulse -

Laura Bicker of the BBC reports on China's aging population and why it's a demographic crisis is unfolding for Xi:

Ask 72-year-old farmer Huanchun Cao about his pension and he reacts with a throaty cackle.

He sucks on his home-rolled cigarette, narrows his brow and tilts his head - as if the very question is absurd. "No, no, we don't have a pension," he says looking at his wife of more than 45 years.

Mr Cao belongs to a generation that witnessed the birth of Communist China. Like his country, he has become old before he has become rich. Like many rural and migrant workers, he has no choice but to keep working and to keep earning, as he's fallen through a weak social safety net.

A slowing economy, shrinking government benefits and a decades-long one-child policy have created a creeping demographic crisis in in Xi Jinping's China.

The pension pot is running dry and the country is running out of time to build enough of a fund to care for the growing number of elderly.

Over the next decade, about 300 million people, who are currently aged 50 to 60, are set to leave the Chinese workforce. This is the country's largest age group, nearly equivalent to the size of the US population.

Who will look after them? The answer depends on where you go and who you ask.

Chart showing China's population is ageing fast

Mr Cao and his wife live in the north-eastern province of Liaoning, China's former industrial heartland.

Vast swathes of farmland and mined hills surround the main city of Shenyang. Plumes of smoke from smelting factories fill the skyline, alongside some of the country's best-preserved world heritage sites from the Qing dynasty.

Nearly a quarter of the population here is 65 or older. An increasing number of working-age adults are leaving the heavy industries hub in search of better jobs in bigger cities.

Mr Cao's children have moved away too but they are still close enough to visit often.

"I think I can only keep doing this for another four or five years," Mr Cao says, after he and his wife return from collecting wood. Inside their home, flames crackle beneath a heated platform - called a "kang" - which is their main source of warmth. 

The couple make around 20,000 yuan (£2,200; $2,700) a year. But the price for the corn they grow is going down and they cannot afford to get sick.

"In five years, if I'm still physically strong, maybe I can walk by myself. But if I'm feeble and weak, then I might be confined to bed. That's it. Over. I suppose I will become a burden for my children. They will need to look after me."

That is not the future 55-year-old Guohui Tang wants. Her husband had an accident at a construction site and their daughter's university education drained her savings.

So the former digger operator saw an opportunity in elderly care to fund her own old age. She opened a small care home about an hour from Shenyang.

The pigs and geese both honk a welcome at the back of the single-storey house surrounded by farmland. Ms Tang grows crops to feed her six residents. The animals are not pets - they are also dinner.  

Ms Tang points to a group of four playing cards as the sun shines through the small conservatory.

"See that 85-year-old man - he doesn't have a pension, he's relying entirely on his son and daughter. His son pays one month, his daughter pays the next month, but they need to live too."

She is worried that she too will have to depend on her only daughter: "Now I will pay my pension every month, even if it means I cannot afford to eat or drink."

For generations, China has relied on filial piety to fill the gaps in elderly care. It was a son or daughter's duty to look after ageing parents.

But there are fewer sons and daughters for ageing parents to rely on - one reason is the "one-child" diktat which prevented couples from having two or more children between 1980 to 2015.

Xiqing Wang/ BBC Residents at Ms Tang's care home

With rapid economic growth, young people have also moved away from their parents, leaving a rising number of seniors to look after themselves or rely on government payments.

But the pension fund could run out of money by 2035, according to the state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences. That was a 2019 estimate, before the pandemic shutdowns, which hit China's economy hard.

China may also be forced to raise the age of retirement, which has been on the cards for years. It has one of the lowest retirement ages in the world - 60 for men, 55 for white-collar women and 50 for working-class women.

But economists say this is just tinkering around the edges if China is to avoid what some fear could become a humanitarian crisis in 25 years.

Meanwhile, more and more elderly have been dipping into their pensions.

"Welcome to my home," beckons 78-year-old Grandma Feng, who only wanted to use her last name.

It's hard to keep up with her as she races along the corridor to warn her husband that guests are on the way to their room at the Sunshine Care Home. The morning exercise class, where she had been giggling and gossiping at the back with her friends, just ended. 

The home was built to house more than 1,300 residents. Around 20 young people volunteer to live here for free in return for helping to look after some of the elderly. Private companies partly fund the home, taking the pressure off the local government.

This is an experiment as leaders hunt for solutions for an ageing China. Here in Hangzhou, in southern China, they can afford such experiments.

This is a different world from Liaoning - the shiny new buildings that are rising up host tech companies such as Alibaba and Ant, a magnet for ambitious, young entrepreneurs.

The Fengs have been here for eight years. The nursing home seems friendly and there is plenty to do - from gym and table tennis to singing and drama.

"It is very important to be able to finish the last part of life at a good place," Grandma Feng says. She and her husband have been married for more than 50 years. It was love at first sight, they say.

When their grandson graduated from junior high school, they decided their task was complete.

"There are few people of the same age who think like us," Grandma Feng says. "It seems we care more about enjoying life. Those who don't agree think it's unnecessary to pay a lot of money to live here while they have their own house."

But she says she is more "open-minded": "I thought it through. I just gave my house to my son. All we need now is our pension cards."

The couple's room at the care home costs around 2,000 yuan a month. As former employees of state-owned companies, they both have enough of a pension to cover the cost.

Their pension is far higher than the average in China, around 170 yuan a month in 2020, according to the UN's International Labour Organization.

Ms Tang's clients - poor and often pension-less - are a stark contrast to those in the Sunshine Care Home

But even with clients with decent pensions, the Sunshine Care Home is running at a loss. The director says care homes are costly to start and take time to turn a profit.

Beijing has been pressuring private firms to build daycare centres, wards and other age-care infrastructure to shore up gaps left by indebted local governments. But will they continue to invest if profits are far off?

Other East Asian countries such as Japan are also searching for funds to care for large numbers of elderly. But Japan was already wealthy by the time it had one of the world's largest ageing populations.

China, however, is ageing fast without that cushion. So, many older people are forced to make their own way - at an age when they should be planning their retirement.

Chart showing number of workers supporting retirees expected to fall

Fifty-five-year-old Shuishui found a new career in what is being called "the silver-haired economy" - an attempt to harness the buying power of middle-class seniors.

"I think what we can do is try to influence the people around us to be more positive, and to keep on learning. Everybody might have different levels of household income, but whatever circumstances you are in, it's best to try to be positive."

Shuishui knows she is part of a privileged lot in China. But she is determined to hope for the best. The former businesswoman is now a newly-trained model.

On the sunny banks of the Grand Canal in Hangzhou, she and three other women, all over 55, are touching up their make-up and hair.  

Each has chosen their own traditional Chinese outfit in red or gold - floor-length silk pattern skirts and short jackets lined with fur to keep out the spring chill. These glamorous grannies are modelling for social media.

They teeter precariously in high heels over the cobbled historic Gongchen bridge while trying to smile and laugh for the camera as a team of social media specialists shout instructions.

This is an image of greying gracefully that Shuishui is keen for the world to see, and she feels she is doing what she can to lift an ailing economy.

But this image belies the reality for millions of elderly in China.

Back in Liaoning, the wood smoke rises from chimneys, signalling lunchtime. Mr Cao is stoking the fire in his kitchen to heat water to cook rice. 

"When I reach 80, I hope my children will come back to live with me," he says as he finds a saucepan.

"I'm not joining them in the cities. Their place has no lift and you need to walk up five floors. That's harder than climbing a hill." 

For Mr Cao this is simply the way of things. He has to keep working until he cannot.

"Ordinary people like us live like this," he says, pointing to the fields outside which are still covered in frost. Spring will bring back the planting season - and more work for him and his wife.

"If you compare it with life in the city, of course, farmers have a tougher life. How can you make a living if you can't bear the toughness?"

China's demographic problem is also a massive pension problem.

The harsh realities millions of Chinese face as they retire with little to no savings is a big problem, not just for China but the world as this is a structural deflationary headwind which will curb world growth for years.

Well, who cares? Just raise the retirement age to 65 or 67 years old.

As the article points out, this is just tinkering around the edges, it will not stop or even mitigate the looming retirement crisis this country is facing.

I don't know what China's policymakers are waiting for, this is like watching a slow-motion train wreck and nobody seems to be addressing it in a concrete way.

But let's not only point the finger at China, we have our own looming retirement crisis right in our backyard:

And the US also has its share of problems:

This is something BlackRock CEO Larry Fink alluded to recently when he called on the Boomers to fix the retirement crisis (see clip below).

The truth is this is an ongoing global retirement crisis, some countries are better than others at covering their citizens for retirement but most countries are grappling with their demographic time bomb. 

The problem? Again, you have a huge cohort of the global population retiring with little to no savings and they can't rely on their meagre pension benefits to get by. Policymakers better wake up fast!

Update: After reading my post, Clive Lipshitz shared this with me:

Your post on the Chinese pension gap is very important. Providing for the 300mm Chinese in retirement will become a serious problem for China. How did this situation come about? Evidently, plan design did not adjust for demographics, including the drop in the fertility rate (6.1 in 1970, 1.2 in 2021) and the rapid expansion in life expectancy (57 in 1970, 78 in 2021), which itself was not matched with an increase in the retirement age. Compounding this, China already has high pension contribution rates.

The solution is a combination of a gradual step-up in the retirement age (already underway) along with worker retraining for late-life careers and addressing concerns of younger workers, and caps on indexation of benefits. Also, promotion of Pillar 2 and 3 pension systems (much less prevalent in China). Finally, more flexibility in the management of pension reserves. This is where Canada can provide valuable lessons drawing on its own pension reforms in the 1990s, the design of investment management organizations and approaches to portfolio management.

I thank Clive for sharing his wise insights.

CalPERS Names Stephen Gilmore as New CIO

Pension Pulse -

Matt Toledo of Chief Investment Officer reports CalPERS Names Stephen Gilmore as New CIO:

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System has selected Stephen Gilmore as its new CIO, succeeding Nicole Musicco, who stepped down in September 2023.

Gilmore’s appointment is effective in July, the CalPERS board announced Tuesday.

“Stephen has worked in very public roles during his career for organizations where transparency and resiliency are essential,” said CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost in a statement. “He brings not only a wealth of investing knowledge to the job, but he also has the temperament to understand the needs of our members and public sector employers who depend on CalPERS to be a steady, long-term partner.”

Gilmore will be leaving his role as CIO of the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, which manages the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, a position he has held since 2019. A native of New Zealand, he was previously chief investment strategist at the Future Fund, the sovereign wealth fund of Australia, and has held roles with the International Monetary Fund.

Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times also reports the worst job in investing has finally been filled (for now):

One day after April Fools’, the $495bn California Public Employees’ Retirement System has announced that another sucker has decided to subject themselves to what might be the worst job in the entire global investment industry. Willingly. 

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — The California Public Employees’ Retirement System has selected Stephen Gilmore, a senior investment leader with extensive experience in public and private financial institutions and across cultures and geographies, as the pension fund’s chief investment officer. 

His appointment is expected to become effective in July. 

Gilmore, an internationally recognized investment leader whose career has spanned 40 years, comes to CalPERS after more than five years as the chief investment officer of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZ Super Fund), a sovereign wealth fund owned by the New Zealand government and valued at more than $73 billion (NZD). 

“Stephen has worked in very public roles during his career for organizations where transparency and resiliency are essential,” said CalPERS Chief Executive Officer Marcie Frost. “He brings not only a wealth of investing knowledge to the job, but he also has the temperament to understand the needs of our members and public sector employers who depend on CalPERS to be a steady, long-term partner.” 

Gilmore was chief investment strategist of the Future Fund, Australia’s sovereign wealth fund. There, he oversaw efforts such as portfolio strategy, portfolio overlays, and investment risk. He has also held senior international positions with AIG Financial Products and Morgan Stanley, as well as assignments with the International Monetary Fund and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. 

On one hand, leading one of the world’s biggest pension plans should be incredibly desirable. You’re doing a vital job on behalf of over 2mn current and future retirees, and managing sums of money so vast it would make Croesus weep with envy. Fee-hungry Wall Streeters will fete you, and journalists treat your pronouncements as newsworthy in themselves. 

But Calpers has become a poisoned chalice. There are always a lot of different interests to manage at the top of a pension plan, but the psychodrama between the board, plan members, the investment staff, the media, and local, regional and national politicians has been quite something to behold over the years. One former Calpers CIO outright laughed (hollowly) when FTAV once asked what the job was like. 

So Gilmore — the fifth Calpers CIO in the past decade! — has quite the job ahead of him, which he obliquely nodded to in the pension plan’s statement:

 “I’m grateful to CalPERS’ leaders for the trust they’ve put in me to help shape the pension fund’s next chapter,” Gilmore said. “There are high expectations, and rightly so, when it comes to fulfilling the promises made in serving those who serve California.”

 Lets hope it’s a longer chapter than those written by his predecessors. Joe Dear (2009-14) was taken by cancer, but judging by the reigns of Ted Eliopoulos (2014-18) Ben Meng (2019-20) and Nicole Musicco (2022-23), it seems the average length of a Calpers CIO stint is getting closer to one year.

Oh those Brits, they can be downright nasty and judgmental little buggers!!

You can read the full CalPERS' press release on his nomination here

Let me congratulate Stephen Gilmore on being nominated to this prestigious (and yes, precarious) position.

I hope he signed an ironclad contract and is getting paid well to leave beautiful New Zealand for Sacramento, California. He's in for a culture shock in more ways than one!

One piece of advice for CalPERS' new CIO: proceed cautiously and don't rock the boat.

Your predecessor wanted to implement changes quickly and as you'll realize, CalPERS isn't a place where you can implement anything quickly, it's fraught with politics and bureaucracy and has its own unique culture.

Anyway, what can we expect from Stephen Gilmore?

In an exclusive interview with Jennifer Ablan and Julie Tadge of Pensions & Investments, he shared some insights:

CalPERS has tapped Stephen Gilmore, the chief investment officer of sovereign wealth fund New Zealand Superannuation Fund, as its new chief investment officer.

Gilmore has spent the last five years as CIO of NZ Super Fund, which is owned by the New Zealand government and valued at more than NZ$73 billion ($43.5 billion). He is is expected to start at CalPERS, the nation's largest public pension fund, in July.

Gilmore will succeed Nicole Musicco, who left the Sacramento-based California Public Employees’ Retirement System in September and became the second straight CIO to leave after only 18 months on the job.

“Stephen has worked in very public roles during his career for organizations where transparency and resiliency are essential,” said CalPERS Chief Executive Officer Marcie Frost, in an April 2 news release. “He brings not only a wealth of investing knowledge to the job, but he also has the temperament to understand the needs of our members and public sector employers who depend on CalPERS to be a steady, long-term partner.”

As chief investment officer for NZ Super Fund, CalPERS said Gilmore has overseen the world’s best-performing sovereign fund, with annual investment returns of more than 12% a year over the past decade. 

At CalPERS, Gilmore will oversee a team of more than 300 investment professionals and a portfolio valued at $494.6 billion. His arrival comes shortly after CalPERS’ launch of a sweeping Sustainable Investments 2030 plan, which includes investing $100 billion in climate solutions over the next six years.

In an interview, Gilmore said the position represented an “exciting opportunity,’’ not only because of the sheer size of the pension system but also because of its leadership in sustainable investing and its long-term focus. “California has been a leader in a lot of spaces,” Gilmore said.

He told P&I that a priority will be looking to improve CalPERS’ funding ratio, which was estimated at about 72% as of June 30, rising from 70.9% in 2022, but still reflecting a significant decline from 81.2% in 2021.

“If I look at the amount of active risk that’s being taken through time, it’s relatively low,'' he said. "It's hard to generate a lot of outperformance without taking some active risk, so I will be thinking about that.”

In his first 100 days at CalPERS, “I really want to spend a lot of time listening,” he said. “It’s always very dangerous to have preconceived notions before you actually talk to people.”

Before joining NZ Super in 2019, Gilmore was chief investment strategist at Australia's Future Fund. There, he oversaw efforts such as portfolio strategy, portfolio overlays and investment risk. He has also held senior international positions with AIG Financial Products and Morgan Stanley, as well as assignments with the International Monetary Fund and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

“Stephen brings an unmatched knowledge of global investing and managing diverse and high-performing investment professionals,” CalPERS President Theresa Taylor said in the release. “We conducted an exhaustive, worldwide search for a deeply skilled leader to continue our mission of providing retirement benefits to California’s public sector workers, and we are confident Stephen is the right person for the job.”

The annual salary for the position, not including incentives based on fund performance relative to established benchmarks, is $718,750.

No doubt about it, even though I don't know him, Stephen Gilmore has the experience and credentials to be a great CIO at CalPERS.

The fact that he's a man and not a woman might disturb some of you but this is a critical job and they picked the best candidate who was willing to take it, period.

Will he last five or more years at CalPERS? I certainly hope so because if he doesn't, the organization is in deep trouble.

Mr. Gilmore is about to lead CalPERS through the next financial crisis and it will be a very difficult one where he needs the support from everyone there.

This isn't a time to play California politics, it's a time to roll up your sleeves and get to work.

On that note, let me wish Stephen Gilmore and the entire team at CalPERS the best of luck.

Below, former Future Fund Chief Investment Strategist Stephen Gilmore has had a career that is both impressive and dramatic, dealing with warlords in Tajikistan, working at AIG during its bail out and finally at Australia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Future Fund. MarketFox columnist Daniel Grioli asks for his insights (November 2020).

If he dealt with warlords in Tajikistan, he's prepared to deal with warlords in California. -:)

Also, a year ago Stephen Gilmore, CIO at New Zealand Super Fund, interviewed Bridgewater's co-CIO Greg Jensen for Ted Seidles' Capital Allocators. 

Bridgewater is going through a tough slug lately as CEO Nir Bar Dea’s attempts to revamp the hedge fund over the past 18 months have had mixed results, underscoring how tough it is for any firm to evolve beyond its founder.

As I told Bloomberg's Nishant Kumar on LinkedIn earlier, in my opinion, once the founder of an elite hedge fund leaves, it's never the same shop, returns typically falter soon after. Hope I'm wrong as I like the folks at Bridgewater but I'm rarely wrong when it comes to my hedge fund calls. It's almost impossible to maintain elite status when the founder departs.

CDPQ Will Retain Minority Stake in Nuvei as it Goes Private

Pension Pulse -

Tara Deschamps of The Canadian Press reports payment technology company Nuvei Corp. signs deal to be taken private:

Less than four years after it went public in what was the Toronto Stock Exchange's largest tech IPO ever, Nuvei Corp. is going private in a deal that values the company at US$6.3 billion.

The buzzy Montreal-based payments technology firm, which scored an investment from Canadian actor Ryan Reynolds last year, announced Monday that it will be taken private by U.S. private equity firm Advent International.

The all-cash transaction values the company's shares at US$34 and has already got the O.K. from existing Canadian shareholders, Nuvei CEO Philip Fayer, private equity firm Novacap and pension fund CDPQ.

"This transaction marks the beginning of an exciting new chapter for Nuvei, and we are glad to partner with Advent to continue to deliver for our customers and employees and capitalize on the significant opportunities that this investment provides," Fayer said in a press release announcing the deal.

Under the deal, Fayer, who founded Nuvei in 2003, will indirectly own or control about 24 per cent of the equity in the new private company, with Novacap holding 18 per cent and CDPQ owning 12 per cent. (Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ collectively represent about 92 per cent of the voting power attached to all the shares.)

Fayer will remain as the company's chair and chief executive, alongside Nuvei's current leadership team, which is also sticking around.

The deal comes weeks after Nuvei announced that it had formed a special committee to evaluate expressions of interest from potential buyers, after speculation cropped up in media reports suggesting the business was about to be taken private by Advent.

At the time, Nuvei confirmed it was in talks for a potential transaction involving continued significant ownership by certain holders of its multiple voting shares, including Fayer.

When Nuvei confirmed the talks, its TSX-listed share price was roughly $31, but it has steadily climbed ever since, sitting at almost $44 on Monday, when the deal was announced.

Richard Tse, a National Bank of Canada analyst who had named Nuvei a "potential takeout candidate" in 2022, thought the deal was "reasonably valued."

"We believe the potential for a competitive bid is low given a non-solicitation covenant on the part of Nuvei and a meaningful 'break fee' of $150 million," he wrote to investors Monday.

Advent, which was founded in 1984, has made more than 415 private equity investments across more than 40 countries and as of Sept. 30, had US$91 billion in assets under management. 

The firm is focused on business and financial services, health care, industrial, retail, consumer, leisure and technology investments. 

Nuvei has said it will benefit from the significant resources, operational, and sector expertise, as well as the capacity for investment provided by Advent.

"Bringing in a partner with such extensive experience in the payments sector will continue to support our development," Fayer said.

That development has included a partnership Nuvei launched in January with software company Adobe to provide customers access to its payment technology.

The agreement with Adobe followed a partnership between Nuvei and Microsoft Corp. announced last year that will see the software giant start using Nuvei's payments technology in the Middle East and Africa.

When Nuvei went public in September 2020, it set a goal of raising US$600 million. It was oversubscribed by 20 per cent and then its 14 underwriters bought more than four million shares through stock options they had. It wound up with an US$833 million IPO, shattering the TSX's record for a tech IPO. 

At the time, Fayer said the company “didn't set out to be record-breaking" because his real aim was to reward his 800 employees with $100,000 in stock options and build capital for future mergers and acquisitions.

The Nuvei that has taken shape over the last few years is one that fits the profile of a differentiated global payments platform, Bo Huang, a managing director at Advent, said.

"Our deep expertise and experience in payments give us conviction in the opportunity to support Nuvei as it continues to scale from its base in Canada as a global player in the space," Huang said in a statement. 

"We look forward to collaborating closely with Nuvei to capitalize on emerging opportunities to help shape the future of the payments industry."

The Advent deal, which requires shareholder and regulatory approvals, is expected to close in late 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.

Jameson Berkow of The Globe and Mail also reports payments processor Nuvei to be taken private by Advent International:

Nuvei Corp. is going private, but the Montreal-based digital payments processor’s largest shareholders will not be cashing out.

Two weeks after confirming takeover talks with private equity firm Advent International Corp., Nuvei said Monday the two sides have reached an agreement for an all-cash transaction valuing the company at US$6.3-billion.

Nuvei chair and chief executive Phil Fayer, Montreal-based private equity firm Novacap and pension giant Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec have all agreed to the US$34-per-share offer, which represents a 56 per cent premium to Nuvei’s March 15 closing price on the Nasdaq exchange.

Mr. Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ collectively own the majority of Nuvei stock, but each has agreed to sell only a portion of their holdings – 5 per cent, 35 per cent and 25 per cent respectively – to Advent for a combined cash payout of US$560-million. They will continue to own more than half of Nuvei – 24 per cent, 18 per cent and 12 per cent respectively – once the privatization process is complete.

Mr. Fayer will also remain CEO and chair of the company’s board and the company will continue to be based in Montreal, Nuvei said. Canadian actor Ryan Reynolds, who first invested in Nuvei in April, 2023, was not listed among the shareholders who will be retaining a piece of the company.

Nuvei manages payments for a wide range of businesses operating in dozens of countries around the world. The company has more than 2,000 employees and can process 680 different payment methods denominated in 150 different currencies, including cryptocurrencies.

The company faced a substantial challenge last year when short seller Spruce Point Capital Management LLC claimed Nuvei was making acquisitions in order to obscure its growth challenges. Spruce Point abandoned its short position in June, 2023, two months after its public accusation.

Financially, Nuvei has been showing strong growth in recent months. On March 5, the company reported US$321.5-million in revenue for the final three months of 2023, up 46 per cent from the same period in 2022. Quarterly profit grew 51 per cent on a year over year basis to US$14.1-million.

While the Advent deal represents a small premium to Nuvei’s 2020 initial public offering price of US$26 per share, the price is also a small fraction of the US$137 per share the company was worth at its peak in September, 2021. The stock fell quickly from those highs, however, as publicly-traded technology companies faced immense selling pressure amid rising interest rates.

Nuvei stock has not traded above the offer price of US$34 per share since July, 2023. During a speech in September, 2022, Mr. Frayer publicly speculated about leaving the public markets.

“Nuvei would consider going private in the event its valuation remains at these depressed levels,” he said at the time.

National Bank of Canada analyst Richard Tse said in a research note published shortly after the deal was announced that the offer appears “reasonably valued” based on previous transactions. The potential of a competing bid emerging for Nuvei is low, Mr. Tse said, given the Advent deal includes a “meaningful break fee of $150-million.”

Mr. Tse has been raising the possibility of Nuvei being acquired for years, having first included the company in a list of potential takeout candidates in a 2022 research note about the rising activity of value-focused buyers.

Nuvei is the eighth Canadian technology company that went public during the mid-pandemic frenzy of 2021 to return to private status. Q4 Inc., Dialogue Health Technologies Inc., Farmers Edge Inc., Magnet Forensics Inc., BBTV Holdings Inc. and MindBeacon Holdings Inc. have all accepted buyouts while another, E Inc., voluntarily delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange in April, 2023.

Mr. Tse’s note to clients on Monday – which recommended Nuvei shareholders accept the Advent offer – was titled “there goes another.”

Earlier today, a joint press release was issued stating Nuvei enters into agreement to be taken private by Advent International, alongside existing Canadian shareholders Philip Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ at a price of US$34.00 per share:

Existing shareholder Philip Fayer is rolling over substantially all of his existing equity and existing shareholders Novacap and CDPQ are rolling over a majority of their existing equity

Key highlights:

  • Nuvei, a global leader in payments, and Advent, a significant player in fintech private equity investing, join forces via all-cash transaction
  • Shareholders will receive US$34.00 per share in cash, which represents a premium of approximately 56% over Nuvei’s unaffected closing share price1 of US$21.76 on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on March 15, 2024, and a premium of approximately 48% over Nuvei’s 90-day volume weighted average trading price  as of such date, valuing Nuvei at an enterprise value of approximately US$6.3 billion
  • Canadian shareholders Philip Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ will indirectly own or control approximately 24%, 18% and 12%, respectively, of the equity in the resulting private company as part of the agreement
  • Philip Fayer will continue to lead Nuvei as Chair and Chief Executive Officer, alongside his broader leadership team, with Montreal continuing to serve as Nuvei’s headquarters

Nuvei Corporation (“Nuvei” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: NVEI) (TSX: NVEI), today announced that it has entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the “Arrangement Agreement”) to be taken private by Advent International (“Advent”), one of the world’s largest and most experienced global private equity investors, with the support of each of the Company’s holders of multiple voting shares (“Multiple Voting Shares”), being Philip Fayer, certain investment funds managed by Novacap Management Inc. (collectively, “Novacap”) and CDPQ, via an all-cash transaction which values Nuvei at an enterprise value of approximately US$6.3 billion. The Company will continue to be based in Montreal.

One of the most advanced technology providers in the global payments industry, Nuvei accelerates the growth of its customers and partners around the world through a modular, flexible and scalable solution that enables leading companies across all verticals to accept next-gen payments, offer all payout options, and benefit from card issuing, banking, risk and fraud management services. Nuvei’s global reach extends to more than 200 markets across the globe, with local acquiring in 50 markets and connectivity to 680 local and alternative payment methods.

In its recent 2023 annual financial statements Nuvei announced that it had processed more than US$200 billion in Total volume2, and US$1.2 billion in revenue.

Advent is a longstanding investor in the payments space. Nuvei will benefit from the significant resources, operational, and sector expertise, as well as the capacity for investment provided by Advent.

Philip Fayer will remain Nuvei’s Chair and Chief Executive Officer and will lead the business in all aspects of its operations. Nuvei’s current leadership team will also continue following the conclusion of the transaction.

Fayer commented on the announcement: “This transaction marks the beginning of an exciting new chapter for Nuvei, and we are glad to partner with Advent to continue to deliver for our customers and employees and capitalize on the significant opportunities that this investment provides.”

Fayer continued: “Our strategic initiatives have always focused on accelerating our customers revenue, driving innovation across our technology, and developing our people. Bringing in a partner with such extensive experience in the payments sector will continue to support our development.”

“Nuvei has created a differentiated global payments platform with an innovative product offering that serves attractive payments end markets like global eCommerce, B2B and embedded payments,” said Bo Huang, a Managing Director at Advent. “Our deep expertise and experience in payments give us conviction in the opportunity to support Nuvei as it continues to scale from its base in Canada as a global player in the space. We look forward to collaborating closely with Nuvei to capitalize on emerging opportunities to help shape the future of the payments industry.”

“As an existing and long-term shareholder, we continue to stand behind management's proven dedication to innovation, efficiency, and market adaptation, which has consistently propelled Nuvei forward. With our continued support, we entrust management to navigate the evolving landscape adeptly, driving expansion, and delivering on our shared commitment to long-term growth for Nuvei employees and customers,” said David Lewin, Senior Partner at Novacap.

“Ever since our first investment in Nuvei in 2017, CDPQ is proud to have supported this Québec fintech leader at every stage of its growth, particularly through acquisitions on a global scale. We are delighted to accompany Nuvei once again as it embarks on this new chapter of its history, alongside recognized partners such as Advent, as well as existing shareholders Philip Fayer and Novacap,” said Kim Thomassin, Executive Vice-President and Head of Québec at CDPQ.

Transaction Highlights

Advent will acquire all the issued and outstanding subordinate voting shares of Nuvei (the “Subordinate Voting Shares”) and any Multiple Voting Shares that are not Rollover Shares (as defined below). These Subordinate Voting Shares and Multiple Voting Shares (collectively, the “Shares”) will each be acquired for a price of US$34.00 per Share, in cash.

This price represents a premium of approximately 56% to the closing price of the Subordinate Voting Shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market (“Nasdaq”) on March 15, 2024, the last trading day prior to media reports concerning a potential transaction involving the Company and a premium of approximately 48% to the 90‑day volume weighted average trading price3 per Subordinate Voting Share as of such date.

Philip Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ (together with entities they control directly or indirectly, collectively, the “Rollover Shareholders”) have agreed to roll approximately 95%, 65% and 75%, respectively, of their Shares (the “Rollover Shares”) and are expected to receive in aggregate approximately US$560 million in cash for the Shares sold on closing4. Philip Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ are expected to indirectly own or control approximately 24%, 18% and 12%, respectively, of the equity in the resulting private company.

The proposed transaction has the support of each of the holders of Multiple Voting Shares, namely Philip Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ, who collectively represent approximately 92% of the voting power attached to all the Shares.

Nuvei’s Board of Directors, after receiving advice from the Company’s financial advisor and outside legal counsel, is unanimously recommending (with interested directors abstaining from voting) that the Nuvei shareholders vote in favour of the transaction. This recommendation follows the unanimous recommendation of a special committee of the Board of Directors which is comprised solely of independent directors and was formed in connection with the transaction (the “Special Committee”). The Special Committee was advised by independent legal counsel and retained TD Securities Inc. (“TD”) as financial advisor and independent valuator.

Further Transaction Details

The transaction will be implemented by way of a statutory plan of arrangement under the Canada Business Corporations Act. Implementation of the transaction will be subject to, among other things, the following shareholder approvals at a special meeting of shareholders to be held to approve the proposed transaction (the “Meeting”): (i) the approval of at least 66 2/3% of the votes cast by the holders of Multiple Voting Shares and Subordinate Voting Shares, voting together as a single class (with each Subordinate Voting Share being entitled to one vote and each Multiple Voting Share being entitled to ten votes); (ii) the approval of not less than a simple majority of the votes cast by holders of Multiple Voting Shares; (iii) the approval of not less than a simple majority of the votes cast by holders of Subordinate Voting Shares; (iv) if required, the approval of not less than a simple majority of the votes cast by holders of Multiple Voting Shares (excluding the Multiple Voting Shares held by the Rollover Shareholders and any other shares required to be excluded pursuant to Multilateral Instrument 61-101 - Protection of Minority Security Holders in Special Transactions (“MI 61-101”); and (v) the approval of not less than a simple majority of the votes cast by holders of Subordinate Voting Shares (excluding the Subordinate Voting Shares held by the Rollover Shareholders and any other shares required to be excluded pursuant to MI 61-101). The transaction is also subject to court approval and customary closing conditions, including receipt of key regulatory approvals, is not subject to any financing condition and, assuming the timely receipt of all required key regulatory approvals, is expected to close in late 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.

The Arrangement Agreement provides for a non-solicitation covenant on the part of Nuvei, which is subject to customary “fiduciary out” provisions that enable Nuvei to terminate the Arrangement Agreement and accept a superior proposal in certain circumstances. A termination fee of US$150 million would be payable by Nuvei in certain circumstances, including in the context of a superior proposal supported by Nuvei. A reverse termination fee of US$250 million would be payable to Nuvei if the transaction is not completed in certain circumstances.

In connection with the proposed transaction, each director and member of senior management of Nuvei and each Rollover Shareholder has entered into a customary support and voting agreement pursuant to which it has agreed, subject to the terms thereof, to support and vote all of their Shares in favour of the transaction. Consequently, holders of approximately 0.3% of the Subordinate Voting Shares and holders of 100% of the Multiple Voting Shares, representing approximately 92% of the total voting power attached to all of the Shares, have agreed to vote their Shares in favour of the transaction.

Following completion of the transaction, it is expected that the Subordinate Voting Shares will be delisted from each of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq and that Nuvei will cease to be a reporting issuer in all applicable Canadian jurisdictions and will deregister the Subordinate Voting Shares with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).

Fairness Opinions and Formal Valuation and Voting Recommendation

The Arrangement Agreement was the result of a comprehensive negotiation process with Advent that was undertaken with the supervision and involvement of the Special Committee advised by independent and highly qualified legal and financial advisors.

The Special Committee retained TD as financial advisor and independent valuator. In arriving at its unanimous recommendation in favour of the transaction, the Special Committee considered several factors which will be outlined in public filings to be made by Nuvei. These include a formal valuation report prepared by TD in accordance with MI 61-101 (the “Formal Valuation”) and a fairness opinion rendered by TD. TD orally delivered to the Special Committee the results of the Formal Valuation, completed under the Special Committee’s supervision, opining that, as of April 1, 2024, subject to the assumptions, limitations and qualifications communicated to the Special Committee by TD and to be contained in TD’s written Formal Valuation, the fair market value of the Shares is between US$33.00 and US$42.00 per Share. TD orally delivered a fairness opinion to the Special Committee to the effect that, as of April 1, 2024, subject to the assumptions, limitations and qualifications communicated to the Special Committee, and to be contained in TD’s written fairness opinion (the “TD Fairness Opinion”), the consideration to be received by shareholders (other than the Rollover Shareholders and any other shareholders required to be excluded pursuant to MI 61-101) pursuant to the Arrangement Agreement is fair, from a financial point of view, to such shareholders. Barclays Capital Inc., financial advisor to the Company (“Barclays”), delivered a fairness opinion to the Board of Directors to the effect that, as of April 1, 2024, subject to the assumptions, limitations and qualifications described therein, the consideration to be received by shareholders (other than the Rollover Shareholders in respect of the Rollover Shares) pursuant to the Arrangement Agreement and the Plan of Arrangement is fair, from a financial point of view, to such shareholders (together with the TD Fairness Opinion, the “Fairness Opinions”).

The Board of Directors received the Fairness Opinions and the Formal Valuation and, after receiving the unanimous recommendation of the Special Committee and advice from the Company’s financial advisor and outside legal counsel, the Board of Directors unanimously (with interested directors abstaining from voting) determined that the transaction is in the best interests of Nuvei and is fair to its shareholders (other than the Rollover Shareholders and any other shareholders required to be excluded pursuant to MI 61‑101) and unanimously recommended (with interested directors abstaining from voting) that shareholders vote in favour of the transaction.

Copies of the Formal Valuation and the Fairness Opinions, as well as additional details regarding the terms and conditions of the transaction and the rationale for the recommendation made by the Special Committee and the Board of Directors will be set out in the management proxy circular to be mailed to shareholders in connection with the Meeting and filed by the Company on its profile on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR as an exhibit to the Schedule 13E‑3 Transaction Statement to be filed by Nuvei at www.sec.gov.

Important Additional Information and Where to Find It

In connection with the transaction, Nuvei intends to file relevant materials on its profile on SEDAR+ and with the SEC on EDGAR. Shareholders will be able to obtain these documents, as well as other filings containing information about Nuvei, the transaction and related matters, without charge from the SEDAR+ website at www.sedarplus.ca and from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

Advisors

Barclays Capital Inc. acted as exclusive financial advisor to the Company, and TD Securities Inc. acted as independent valuator and financial advisor to the Special Committee. Stikeman Elliott LLP and Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP acted as legal advisors to the Company. Norton Rose Fulbright Canada LLP and Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP acted as legal advisors to the Special Committee. RBC Capital Markets acted as financial advisor to Advent, while Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP acted as legal advisors to Advent. BMO Capital Markets is acting as left lead arranger and administrative agent for the new US$600 million revolving credit facility and US$2,550 million term loan financing. Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP acted as legal advisor to Philip Fayer. Fasken Martineau DuMoulin LLP and Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP acted as legal advisors to Novacap. CIBC Capital Markets acted as financial advisor to CDPQ, and McCarthy Tétrault LLP and Mayer Brown LLP acted as its legal advisors.

Early Warning Disclosure by Mr. Philip Fayer

Further to the requirements of Regulation 62-104 respecting Take-Over Bids and Issuer Bids and Regulation 62-103 respecting the Early Warning System and Related Take-Over Bid and Insider Reporting Issues, Mr. Philip Fayer will file an amended early warning report in connection with his participation in the transaction as Rollover Shareholder and for which he has entered into a support and voting agreement pursuant to which he has agreed, subject to the terms thereof, to support and vote all of his Shares in favour of the transaction. A copy of Mr. Fayer’s related early warning report will be filed with the applicable securities commissions and will be made available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. Further information and a copy of the early warning report of Mr. Fayer may be obtained by contacting:

Chris Mammone
Head of Investor Relations
Nuvei Corporation
IR@nuvei.com
310.654.4212

Forward-Looking Information

This press release contains “forward-looking information” and “forward-looking statements” (collectively, “Forward-looking information”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws. This forward-looking information is identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “may”, “would”, “should”, “could”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe”, or “continue”, the negative of these terms and similar terminology, including references to assumptions, although not all forward-looking information contains these terms and phrases. Particularly, statements regarding the proposed transaction, including the proposed timing and various steps contemplated in respect of the transaction and statements regarding the plans, objectives, and intentions of Mr. Philip Fayer, Novacap, CDPQ or Advent are forward-looking information.

In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances.

Forward-looking information is based on management's beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management, and although the forward-looking information contained herein is based upon what we believe are reasonable assumptions, investors are cautioned against placing undue reliance on this information since actual results may vary from the forward-looking information.

Forward-looking information involves known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the risk factors described in greater detail under “Risk Factors” of the Company’s annual information form filed on March 5, 2024. These risks and uncertainties further include (but are not limited to) as concerns the transaction, the failure of the parties to obtain the necessary shareholder, regulatory and court approvals or to otherwise satisfy the conditions to the completion of the transaction, failure of the parties to obtain such approvals or satisfy such conditions in a timely manner, significant transaction costs or unknown liabilities, failure to realize the expected benefits of the transaction, and general economic conditions. Failure to obtain the necessary shareholder, regulatory and court approvals, or the failure of the parties to otherwise satisfy the conditions to the completion of the transaction or to complete the transaction, may result in the transaction not being completed on the proposed terms, or at all. In addition, if the transaction is not completed, and the Company continues as a publicly-traded entity, there are risks that the announcement of the proposed transaction and the dedication of substantial resources of the Company to the completion of the transaction could have an impact on its business and strategic relationships (including with future and prospective employees, customers, suppliers and partners), operating results and activities in general, and could have a material adverse effect on its current and future operations, financial condition and prospects. Furthermore, in certain circumstances, the Company may be required to pay a termination fee pursuant to the terms of the Arrangement Agreement which could have a material adverse effect on its financial position and results of operations and its ability to fund growth prospects and current operations.

Consequently, all of the forward-looking information contained herein is qualified by the foregoing cautionary statements, and there can be no guarantee that the results or developments that we anticipate will be realized or, even if substantially realized, that they will have the expected consequences or effects on our business, financial condition or results of operation. Unless otherwise noted or the context otherwise indicates, the forward-looking information contained herein represents our expectations as of the date hereof or as of the date it is otherwise stated to be made, as applicable, and is subject to change after such date. However, we disclaim any intention or obligation or undertaking to update or amend such forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law.

NVEI-IR

1 Based on Canadian composite (Toronto Stock Exchange and all Canadian marketplaces) and U.S. composite (Nasdaq and all U.S. marketplaces).

2 Total volume does not represent revenue earned by the Company, but rather the total dollar value of transactions processed by merchants under contractual agreement with the Company. The Company refers the reader to the “Non-IFRS and Other Financial Measures” section of the Company’s Management’s discussion and analysis in respect of the Company’s financial year ended December 31, 2023 (“2023 MD&A”), which section is incorporated by reference herein, for a definition of Total volume presented by the Company. The 2023 MD&A is available at https://investors.nuvei.com and under the Company’s profiles on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov.

3 Based on Canadian composite (Toronto Stock Exchange and all Canadian marketplaces) and U.S. composite (Nasdaq and all U.S. marketplaces).

4 Percentages and amount of expected cash proceeds are based on current assumed cash position and are subject to change as a result of cash generated before closing.

About Nuvei

Nuvei (Nasdaq: NVEI) (TSX: NVEI) is the Canadian fintech company accelerating the business of clients around the world. Nuvei’s modular, flexible and scalable technology allows leading companies to accept next-gen payments, offer all payout options and benefit from card issuing, banking, risk and fraud management services. Connecting businesses to their customers in more than 200 markets, with local acquiring in 50 markets, 150 currencies and 680 alternative payment methods, Nuvei provides the technology and insights for customers and partners to succeed locally and globally with one integration.

Contact:  

Public Relations
alex.hammond@nuvei.com

Investor Relations
IR@nuvei.com

About Advent International

Founded in 1984, Advent International is one of the largest and most experienced global private equity investors. The firm has invested in over 415 private equity investments across more than 40 countries and regions, and as of September 30, 2023, had US$91 billion in assets under management. With 15 offices in 12 countries, Advent has established a globally integrated team of over 295 private equity investment professionals across North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The firm focuses on investments in five core sectors, including business and financial services; health care; industrial; retail, consumer, and leisure; and technology. For 40 years, Advent has been dedicated to international investing and remains committed to partnering with management teams to deliver sustained revenue and earnings growth for its portfolio companies. 

For more information, visit:
Website: www.adventinternational.com
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/advent-international

Contact:
Leslie Shribman, Head of Communications
lshribman@adventinternational.com

About Novacap

Founded in 1981, Novacap is a leading North American private equity firm with over C$8B of AUM that has invested in more than 100 platform companies and completed more than 150 add-on acquisitions. Applying its sector-focused approach since 2007 in Industries, TMT, Financial Services, and Digital Infrastructure, Novacap’s deep domain expertise can accelerate company growth and create long-term value. With experienced, dedicated investment and operations teams as well as substantial capital, Novacap has the resources and knowledge that help build world-class businesses. Novacap has offices in Montreal, Toronto, and New York.
For more information, please visit www.novacap.ca.

Contact:
Marc P. Tellier, Senior Managing Director
514-915-5743
mtellier@novacap.ca

About CDPQ

At CDPQ, we invest constructively to generate sustainable returns over the long term. As a global investment group managing funds for public pension and insurance plans, we work alongside our partners to build enterprises that drive performance and progress. We are active in the major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private debt. As at December 31, 2023, CDPQ’s net assets totalled CAD 434 billion. For more information, visit cdpq.com, consult our LinkedIn or Instagram pages, or follow us on X.

CDPQ is a registered trademark owned by Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and licensed for use by its subsidiaries.

Alright, Monday merger day, or in this case, take private day.

This deal has been in the works for some time and looking at the long-term chart of Nuvei (NVEI) shares, I'd say CDPQ, Novacap and Nuvei CEO Philip Fayer all got a fair deal here:

Mr. Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ collectively own the majority of Nuvei stock (Fayer, Novacap and CDPQ collectively represent about 92 per cent of the voting power attached to all the shares.), but each has agreed to sell only a portion of their holdings – 5 per cent, 35 per cent and 25 per cent respectively – to Advent for a combined cash payout of US$560-million.

Under the deal, Fayer, who founded Nuvei in 2003, will indirectly own or control about 24 per cent of the equity in the new private company, with Novacap holding 18 per cent and CDPQ owning 12 per cent. 

Philip Fayer will continue to lead Nuvei as Chair and Chief Executive Officer, alongside his broader leadership team, with Montreal continuing to serve as Nuvei’s headquarters.

Does this take private deal surprise me? Absolutely not, Nuvei shares have been struggling since peaking back in September 2021 and the collective owners saw an opportunity to take the company private to focus on their strategic growth plans.

Timing is everything with these take private deals as is the private equity company you're partnering up with.

In this case, it's Advent International, one of the largest and most experienced private equity firms in the world.

They have the expertise to take Nuvei to the next level and shield it from tha vagaries of public markets (things are about to get really thorny for growth stocks in the next three years).

Once Advent and its partners add value, I expect Nuvei will be taken public once again.

Another Montreal based company that I expect to be taken private shortly is Lightspeed:

Last month, founder Dax Dasilva was reappointed to the role of CEO, and he recently mused about taking the company private:

I don't know when it happens but wouldn't be surprised that Lightspeed also goes private to unlock value.

Will CDPQ play a role there too? Maybe but I cannot speculate on that, it's part of their dual mandate so it wouldn't surprise me.

Again, look at the shares of Lightspeed and Nuvei since going public and you'll understand why going private makes sense here.

There's not much more I can add here, we have to wait five years to see if this take private deal turns out for the best but I think it makes a heck of a lot of sense.

Below, a year ago, Canadian actor and investor Ryan Reynolds joined Philip Fayer, chairman and CEO of Nuvei, and the Bloomberg Markets team to talk about his investment in the business. 

I'm not sure Ryan Reynolds made money off this deal (hope so) but I am sure that Advent is entering this deal with the intent of bolstering Nuvei and making it a lot more competitive in a very competitive global payment space.

On Corporate America's Pension Windfall

Pension Pulse -

Marion Halftermeyer of Bloomberg reports Kodak’s pension windfall points to $137 billion opportunity:

Inside Eastman Kodak Co., the once-iconic camera maker, a small pension investment team reaped such large gains in recent years that they windfalled themselves out of a job.

The group, managing a pool of retirement assets for more than 37,000 people, poured money into hedge funds and private equity and, in seven years, turned a $255 million deficit into a $1.1 billion surplus.

That represents a potential fortune for a company that spent the past decade stumbling to find a post-bankruptcy direction, lurching from crypto to Covid vaccines and back to a niche resurgence in film. Earlier this month, Kodak said it was moving management of the pension to an outside firm while it weighed how best to utilize the extra assets, which amount to almost triple the company’s market value.

The photography pioneer isn’t alone.

Across corporate America, buoyant markets and rising rates have turned a subset of employee pensions — defined-benefit plans — from a costly legacy of past promises into an unexpected nest egg.

The question now is how to tap it: a complex dilemma that’s shaping merger talks and corporate strategy, while attracting insurers and asset managers who see a lucrative opportunity in companies that want out of this volatile game altogether.

“This is the pension opportunity of a lifetime,” said Scott Jarboe, a partner at consulting firm Mercer. “Pension plans are better funded than ever.”

Companies with defined-benefit pensions in the S&P 1500 Composite Index — including household names such as Coca-Cola Co., Kraft Heinz Co. and Johnson & Johnson — were sitting on a combined $137 billion surplus as of Feb. 29, according to Mercer. In late 2016, they had a deficit of more than $500 billion.

The flush status of these frozen legacy plans starkly contrasts with the chronic shortfalls at public pensions that are meant to cover retirement costs for hundreds of thousands of teachers, firefighters and police officers, among other government employees. Corporate US workers now mostly save for retirement through 401(k) plans that remove retirement responsibility from employers. Those plans don’t have the fixed benefits for retirees that previous offerings did.

For most people, it has been “a shift from financial certainty to financial uncertainty,” BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said this week in his annual letter to investors. He warned of a retirement crisis facing the US. Even for the generous defined-benefit plans, it’s unlikely that the surplus riches will simply be handed over to retirees. Firms are more likely to use the extra cash for corporate purposes.

Using the surplus isn’t straightforward, but strategies for dealing with it could mean more business flowing to pension consultants and financial firms like Mercer, a unit of Marsh McLennan, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. In the US, these pension plans represent a $2.5 trillion pool of assets that insurers and asset managers are eyeing as a fruitful source of revenue.

Simply taking the cash earmarked for retirees to use on other expenses comes at a high cost: a 50% federal tax that can balloon to as much as 90% when factoring in state and local levies.

“Could a corporate take the money out to pay for share buybacks?” said Michael Moran, a senior pensions strategist at Goldman Sachs. “You could, but you pay a huge tax, so it doesn’t make much sense.”

Companies can avoid taxes if they use part or all of the surplus to increase benefits for the retirees in the pension plan. They can also transfer the surplus into a new plan that includes beneficiaries from the old one. Both options don’t leave much for the employer to use.

A more strategic route is actively cultivating the surplus and leveraging it as an M&A tool. Several firms are considering using their surpluses to help mitigate costs in a potential acquisition for a target company with an underfunded plan. Firms are allowed to merge plans, which can unlock the trapped surplus in one to fund the other.

International Business Machines Corp. decided to combine a pension plan with a $3.6 billion surplus with another to use the surplus to offset the roughly $550 million it paid annually to that plan. That means IBM won’t have to make another cash contribution for five to 10 years, saving on its pension costs and freeing it to use the money for other corporate purposes.

“A lot of companies are dusting off their pension plans and looking at what can be done,” Goldman’s Moran said. “Especially what to do with the trapped surplus. This is something they haven’t had to do since before the global financial crisis.”

Surpluses also give companies the chance to use the extra cash to pay for an otherwise costly and complex transaction that offloads the pension from the balance sheet to an insurer, which takes over the assets and the responsibility of payments to the retirees. In industry parlance, this is called a pension risk transfer.

Often, the first step before a risk transfer is similar to Kodak’s: Engage a money manager to take over investment of the assets and determine the best way forward.

These third-party firms, dubbed outsourced chief investment offices, or OCIOs, are usually part of financial companies or pension consultants. Companies are spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year on managing plans, including costs for human resources, paying investment managers and covering skyrocketing mandatory fees to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the US agency that backstops private sector retirement funds.

“That lends itself to a rationale for the company deciding to go the OCIO route or to an insurer,” said Sean Brennan, head of the pension risk transfer business at Apollo Global Management Inc.’s Athene insurance arm.

It also means executives can focus solely on their core businesses rather than also devoting time and attention to running a mini-asset management firm from within.

The popularity of getting rid of the plans is seen in the increasing size of deals in recent years for external money-management mandates. The industry’s assets are expected to grow more than 10% annually over the next five years, according to consulting firm Cerulli Associates.

The biggest providers of outsourced management globally are Mercer, with approximately $420 billion of assets, BlackRock ($400 billion) and Russell Investments ($375 billion).

Goldman Sachs, which manages about $250 billion, won a blockbuster mandate of roughly £23 billion ($29 billion) from BAE Systems Plc’s pension plan in September. Goldman, Mercer and other firms specialize in helping companies continue to invest the portfolio assets and can help broker the types of risk transfer deals to insurers that Kodak is likely considering and that many others have done with increasing frequency.

Activity reached a 10-year high of $48.3 billion in risk transfer deals in 2022 and $29 billion by the third quarter of last year, according to Goldman’s annual corporate pension study. This year is off to a strong start with several multibillion-dollar transactions, including two for insurer Prudential Financial Inc.: Shell Plc’s $4.9 billion plan for its US retirees and Verizon Communications Inc.’s $5.9 billion plan covering 56,000 retirees.

A majority of US companies with surplus plans are expected to do pension risk transfers in the next year or two.

More than half of the 152 senior financial executives who responded to Mercer’s annual CFO survey conducted in 2022 said they were considering doing a pension risk transfer in 2023 or 2024.

“With a surplus, there’s less of a chance a company needs to pay cash to top up the cost of the deal,” Athene’s Brennan said. “Doing a pension risk transfer is the ultimate de-risking.”

This article caught my attention for a few reasons.

First, corporate plans are experiencing windfall pension gains as rates backed up and assets are at record levels.

Unlike US public pension plans which use rosy investment assumptions to discount their liabilities and are still experiencing pension deficits (although not as bad as in 2008), corporate DB plans use AA-rated bond yields to discount their liabilities and those rates have risen along with long bond Treasury yields in last two years (after reaching a record low).

So as the discount rate rises, liabilities decline and add to this record stock market gains as well as private equity gains and you see why the health of US corporate plans has drastically improved since 2020.

The driving force behind these surpluses and better funded statuses in general is the higher discount rate but increase in asset values also helps.

The death knell for all pensions is a deflationary crisis like in 2008 when rates declined precipitously as did asset values. Pension deficits soared to record levels, especially for corporate plans which have to use market rates to discount their liabilities (I never understood this discrepancy between corporate plans and public state plans in terms of the discount rate they are allowed to use, somewhere in the middle makes more sense).

Notice however how corporations are using their surpluses in strategic ways for M&A activity but most CFOs are just happy to de-risk their plans and pass on the risk to an insurance company which will annuitize these plans.

The windfall gains in corporate pension plans have been a boon for insurers, consultants and outsourced CIOs like Apollo (Athene insurance arm), BlackRock,Goldman, Mercer, Russell Investments, etc.

We are talking billions here which is why so many firms are peddling their services.

The same is going on in Canada where big insurance companies like Sun Life and Manulife are also offering their services to de-risk pension plans.

This is the dominant trend and there's a race to the finish line because CFOs want to avoid being caught in a financial crisis where their funded status will deteriorate significantly, making it impossible to de-risk these plans (need to be fully fund first).

That brings me to my final point, with corporate plans are flush with windfall pensions, we are closer to the top of the market so prepare for a downturn.

I've already expressed my fears of potential stagflation in second half of the year and that will mean higher rates which will further bolster corporate plans but their assets will get hit (still rates dominate in terms of impact on funded status).

Conversely, as I stated above, if we get another deflationary crisis similar to the 2008 GFC, that's a perfect storm for all pensions, especially corporate plans using market rates to discount liabilities.

Keep all this in mind as you wonder about the health of your corporate or public plan and what's going on in the background.

Remember pensions are all about managing assets and liabilities. That's it, that's all.

Below, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink talks about ways to make sure Americans can retire with dignity. He says baby boomers need to step up and help the younger generations. He speaks to Bloomberg's David Westin.

Also, Dan Doonan, executive director of the National Institute on Retirement Security, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential formation of unions at banks, the pension renaissance, and more. 

I have very strong views that the best way to solve the ongoing retirement crisis is by offering private sector workers government backed defined-benefit plans like public sector workers have.

Just make sure you get the governance right and leave the politicians out of it, use the Canadian pension model and even improve on it to fix Social Security and bolster America's corporate plans.

But I will never get invited on Bloomberg to discuss my views, hopefully Larry Fink is paying attention.

Understanding CPP Investments' Total Portfolio Investment Framework

Pension Pulse -

Earlier today, I watched a panel discussion on Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) posted on LinkedIn featuring Derek Walker, Managing Director, Head of Portfolio Design & Construction, Total Fund Management and Global Leadership Team at CPP Investments.

I embedded the discussion below and it's well worth watching it all.

Derek and Geoffrey Rubin, Senior Managing Director & Chief Investment Strategist, Total Portfolio Management, shared insights into CPP Investments' Total Portfolio Investment Framework in “Innovation Unleashed: The Rise of the Total Portfolio Approach”, published by the CAIA Association. 

You can download this important and detailed paper here and it's definitely well worth reading.

In this post, I will focus on Derek and Geoffrey's contribution but have a look here as there are other valuable contributions:

So what is Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) and why should we care?

In short, and these are my expert (or non-expert) opinions, TPA is the very essence of proper pension fund management and IF done correctly, it goes beyond the traditional Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) approach to really capture the best risk-reward opportunities across and within public and private asset classes spanning many sectors, strategies and geographies.

In other words, IF implemented correctly and if incentives are properly aligned and distributed, TPA should offer meaningful value add over a static SAA approach:


Of course, the devil is in the details because a lot of smart people are going to peddle their Total Portfolio Approach as being "extremely sophisticated" but when you drill down, their Strategic Asset Allocation  explains 99% of their returns over the long run.

"Leo, that's pension blasphemy, are you saying TPA doesn't work and is nothing but sophisticated mumbo jumbo that adds little to no value?"

No, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that properly implementing TPA at a large pension fund is very difficult and requires the right governance, culture, incentives, and to be truthful, it's a lot of work and you need to understand what is going on at the ground level to properly compensate this activity and gauge whether it's offering meaningful value add over the long run.

I've worked at pension funds, let me tell you how it typically works. Every team works in silos, they're concerned about beating their internal benchmark to make their big bonus at the end of year and if the pension fund as a whole also beats its benchmark, great, more bonus comes their way.

I'm being facetious but it's not far from the truth and it's extremely difficult to have investment professionals working in different groups collaborating to make sure risk is allocated appropriately and with the total fund returns in mind.

I know, everyone will claim they have a one fund approach and they work collaboratively across teams and asset classes but color me skeptical, I still think silos exist and most people only think about their asset class and beating their internal benchmarks (to be fair, career risk dominates their mindset which is why they make sure their primary focus is on adding value in their area of expertise, total fund return is an after-thought).

Like I said, implementing a successful Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) is far from easy, it requires great leadership at the top (CEO, CIO, CIS, etc) and buy-in from all the other leaders and their team members.

Also, and I don't want to beat this point to death, it takes a special person to be part of a successful total portfolio team and the attributes are endless. 

Very few people are good at holistic thinking, connecting the dots, it's not easy, much easier to focus on your area of expertise and that's it.

Alright, now that I've shared my completely biased views (I'm too old, too cynical and too sclerotic) let me share Derek and Geoffrey's insights on investing through a factor lens as they're the experts and get paid big bucks for implementing TPA at CPP Investments:

 






There are a lot of great insights here and they are honest that while they believe CPP Investments’ Total Portfolio Investment Framework (TPIF) and the factors that underpin it will lead to superior investment returns, "the factor-based approach brings additional challenges above and beyond a traditional asset class-based approach."

It's fair to say that this is a more complex approach and requires constant refining and proper assessment but if done properly it can add meaningful added-value over the long run.

What I am unclear about is how do they properly assess their TPIF to gauge the added value over the long run? Calling the traditional benchmarking approach "banal" is fine but then you need to figure out a way to properly measure success and compensate people on this TPIF.

That's a discussion I'd love to have with Derek, Geoffrey and Ed (Cass) one day.

Also, one area where all of Canada's large pension funds need to step up their game and hire the right people is in currency management, it's been a long-term disaster for the most part (contact my friend Steve Boucouvalas in Oakville, Ontario, he has more experience managing currencies properly than anyone at the Maple Eight and he knows how to consistently deliver alpha).

Lastly, I remind my longtime readers that Mihail Garchev, Vice President Total Fund Management at BCI, did a whole series on Total Fund Management on this blog back in 2020 which was very detailed and quite popular. 

I will refer you to his last comment on "Envisioning the Canadian Pension Model 2.0" as it wrapped things up well and I posted links to other posts in his series there leading up to that final comment.

I have to be honest, I do not see much innovation going on at Canadian pension funds nowadays and to me it feels like everyone is trying to do the same thing (not that this is necessarily a bad thing but it's status quo or steady as we go).

I don't know, nowadays I'm too busy focusing on US biotech companies and who is coming up with innovative treatments for all sorts of diseases (I love the sector).

Like I said, in my world, I don't have time to pontificate, it's either I make money or I die. Period.

Below, please take the time to watch a great panel discussion on the Total Portfolio Approach featuring Derek Walker, Managing Director, Head of Portfolio Design & Construction, Total Fund Management and Global Leadership Team at CPP Investments. 

I'm all for it as long as it's done right and the program's success or failure can be measured properly.

Also, an older (2022) interview with Geoffrey Rubin on Capital Allocators on the modern Canadian model at CPPIB. Take the time to listen to this as well, great insights here too.

UPP Invests in Angel Trains, Expands Its Infrastructure Program

Pension Pulse -

Earlier today, UPP issued a press release stating it has invested in Angel Trains and expanded its infrastructure program through partnership with Arjun Infrastructure Partners:

Toronto / London – March 26, 2024 – Arjun Infrastructure Partners (Arjun) and University Pension Plan Ontario (UPP) are pleased to announce an investment in Angel Trains, as well as the establishment of a partnership to pursue further infrastructure investments in OECD countries. UPP’s investment includes a meaningful commitment to Arjun’s current Infrastructure Alliance Europe fund along with acquiring an interest in Angel Trains, the UK’s leading rolling stock company. This initial investment is a testament to the partnership, laying the groundwork for future co-investments.

Angel Trains is the largest rolling stock company in the UK, serving the passenger rail sector with a diversified fleet of circa 4,400 vehicles, the majority of which are electric multiple units. Angel Trains, as an Investor in People, brings market-leading expertise in asset management, ensuring the fleets deliver to their full potential throughout the whole asset lifecycle.

“Arjun is delighted that UPP have chosen to make this significant commitment to its European infrastructure platform, underscoring their dedication to growth in the region. Angel Trains has excellent ESG credentials with sector-leading commitment to decarbonization and innovation; its ‘cradle-to-grave’ asset stewardship approach ensures fleets deliver their full potential throughout their asset lives. We are delighted to continue supporting the company and its highly regarded management team in delivering its next phase of development,” said Surinder Toor, Managing Partner at Arjun Infrastructure Partners.

“We are delighted to partner with Arjun to expand our infrastructure investment program and complete UPP’s first co-investment. A key part of our investment strategy is partnering with market-leading, like-minded investors like Arjun on attractive co-investments and we are confident this investment can help UPP generate strong and stable long-term returns for our members. Given UPP’s desire to support the transition to a low-carbon economy and Angel Trains’ focus on decarbonizing their fleet, along with the company’s strong management team, shareholder group and business, this is a very attractive opportunity for us,” said Peter Martin Larsen, Senior Managing Director and Head of Private Markets Investments at UPP.

About Arjun Infrastructure Partners

Arjun Infrastructure Partners is an independent European infrastructure fund manager with CAD8.5bn / USD6.2bn AUM. Founded in 2015, Arjun provides direct access to European mid-market core/core plus infrastructure through funds as well as separate managed accounts. Arjun has an experienced, sector-specialist team of 38 with extensive operational knowledge combined with institutional financial pedigree.

www.arjuninfrastructure.com

About University Pension Plan Ontario (UPP)

University Pension Plan Ontario (UPP) is a jointly sponsored defined benefit pension for Ontario’s university sector. UPP manages nearly CAD$11 billion in pension assets and proudly serves over 39,000 members across four universities and 12 sector organizations. UPP is growing a resilient fund to secure pension benefits for members today and for generations to come, and is open to all employers and employees within Ontario’s university community. For more information, please visit MyUPP.ca.

Below, a little more about Arjun Infrastructure Partners:

Arjun Infrastructure Partners is an independent asset management firm dedicated to identifying, executing and managing mid-market infrastructure investments. Founded in 2015, Arjun now manages over €5.7 billion of capital on behalf of prominent institutional investors. ​ 

Our team of 38 professionals has extensive operational and financial experience in the utilities, energy, renewables, digital, social and transportation infrastructure sectors. We offer a proven ability to source bilateral investment opportunities and have a strong focus on ESG as part of our long-term, responsible asset management approach.​

This is as perfect of a partner as UPP can get because the focus is on mid-market infrastructure assets, they aren't too big so UPP can grow nicely with them and their focus is on ESG throughout the investment lifecycle.

As Peter Martin Larsen, Senior Managing Director and Head of Private Markets Investments at UPP stated in the press release, this deal completes UPP’s first co-investment in infrastructure.

Remember, UPP is still relatively small, roughly $12 billion in assets mostly in public markets and the big job is to ramp up private market investments in a hostile environment where higher rates have hurt these assets (but there will be plenty of opportunities too).

Peter also noted this in the press release: "Given UPP’s desire to support the transition to a low-carbon economy and Angel Trains’ focus on decarbonizing their fleet, along with the company’s strong management team, shareholder group and business, this is a very attractive opportunity for us."

Perhaps more than others, UPP's members are really keen on ESG and some are openly and foolishly calling on UPP to divest from fossil fuels

When I read nonsense like that, I cringe and think to myself how lucky I am not to be in Barb Zvan's shoes.

In case you haven't noticed, I'm very blunt, I can't stand stupidity no matter where it comes from, especially when it comes from academics who really don't have the faintest of what's in the best interest of their pension plan.

My advice to all these rambunctious members is listen very carefully to Barb Zvan and her senior team and lay off these idiotic calls to divest from fossil fuels.

And for Pete's sake, please stop listening to Shift Action for Pension Wealth and Planet Health (SHIFT) which notes Canada’s $2.2 trillion pension sector put exclusions on oil and gas investments in 2023 but its “incremental progress” on climate change last year falls short of changes by US and European peers:

SHIFT monitors the fossil fuel and climate-related investments of Canadian pension funds. In its second annual “report card,” the sustainable finance charity reviewed 11 of Canada’s largest pension managers, including the so-called “Maple 8,” which collectively manage retirement savings on behalf of over 27 million Canadians.

“Despite a few encouraging examples of leadership, Canada’s largest pension funds continue to invest their own members’ retirement savings in companies that are accelerating the climate crisis,” SHIFT wrote in the report released on Tuesday.

“Canada’s pension sector remains misaligned with the scientific imperative to limit global heating to as close to 1.5 degrees celsius as possible, in-line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

SHIFT says eight of the 11 funds in its report have committed their portfolios to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or sooner. However, even Canada’s most climate-aligned pension funds, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), and University Pension Plan (UPP), were found to lag international peers.

Those include New York City Public Pensions and France’s Ircantec, which received “A-” grades in the report. CDPQ and UPP received “B+” grades. Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) ranked last in 2023 for the second time, receiving a “D” grade. Companies were evaluated on alignment with the Paris climate target, as well as other factors, like interim emissions targets, and fossil fuel investment exclusions.

SHIFT says Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) and the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP) showed the most progress in 2023. Each fund announced limited fossil fuel exclusions from their investment portfolios last year, joining UPP, Investment Management Corporation of Ontario (IMCO), and CDPQ, which says it has “essentially completed” its divestment of oil producers, according to SHIFT’s report.

“Exclusions on new investments in some fossil fuels are becoming increasingly common amongst Canadian pension funds,” the authors wrote. “Alarmingly, some Canadian pension funds chose to increase their exposure to high-risk fossil fuels in 2023.”

When I read this nonsense, it irritates me and I'm truly wondering if this obsessive focus on ESG and green investments is in the best interest of plan members. 

Anyways, as far as I'm concerned, the folks from SHIFT are out to lunch and have an axe to grind, spreading alarmist misinformation.

Total nonsense, thank God I don't work at a pension fund any longer, I have ZERO patience for this sanctimonious nonsense. 

Again, trust your pension fund managers, stop obsessing over ESG, there are great deals in energy transition like the investment in Angel Trains and others but the world still runs on fossil fuels and we need them to survive.

Below, check out highlights from the 2023 SRPAA Perspectives Lecture with keynote speaker Barb Zvan, President and CEO of University Pension Plan Ontario (UPP), held November 7th at the Fairmont Royal York.

Barb is an expert on climate change risk and ESG related matters and she understands the risks and opportunities in this space. She's a smart cookie and has the patience to deal with her equally smart and demanding members (not all of them are as ideological pushing for divestment from fossil fuels).

Canada Growth Fund to Invest $50-Million in Idealist Capital

Pension Pulse -

Jeffrey Jones of the Globe and Mail reports Canada Growth Fund to invest $50-million in Montreal’s Idealist Capital:

The federal government’s new cleantech funding agency is investing $50-million in Montreal’s Idealist Capital, an impact fund that concentrates on commercial-scale technology developers focused on the shift to a low-carbon economy.

The investment in Idealist marks the third by Canada Growth Fund, a $15-billion pool set up by Ottawa to help direct private-sector capital to Canadian technologies that help meet its commitments to reduce emissions. It is managed by PSP Investments, a public-sector pension-fund manager.

Last year, CGF plowed $90-million into Eavor Technologies, a Calgary-based geothermal energy developer, and struck a deal to backstop carbon pricing and provide debt financing for Entropy Inc., a unit of Advantage Energy Ltd. that is developing a carbon-capture plant in Alberta.

CGF said on Monday the Idealist transaction is the first step in its goal to foster more resilience in the sector and attract more private investors seeking growth-stage green technology opportunities. Key to that plan is forming partnerships with fund managers that can lead fundraising rounds and identify companies that are ready for market.

The funding boost comes at a challenging time for Canadian cleantech companies, which struggled in recent years as private-equity investors became more risk-averse, shying away from opportunities that may be innovative but do not offer quick payouts, said Pierre Larochelle, co-managing partner at Idealist, which aims to raise more than $400-million for its cleantech fund.

“What we’re seeing more and more as cleantech is evolving is that any business that is not able to get to market and commercialize their product with something that’s price-competitive is going to struggle,” Mr. Larochelle said in an interview.

“This is where the current capital market environment, which was more patient and had more tolerance to risks a few years back, has basically clawed back. People are looking and investing in businesses where there’s a very short-term horizon for profitable commercialization.”

Patrick Charbonneau, chief executive officer of CGF’s investment management team, said in a statement that this deal, and similar investments to come, will help improve access to capital for Canadian entrepreneurs, while offering them strategic direction and market expertise.

Impact funds such as Idealist are gaining more attention as investors become more wary of the environmental, social and governance field following some high-profile cases around the world in which regulators have penalized fund managers for greenwashing – making false or exaggerated claims of their benefits.

Such funds are structured to generate measurable social or environmental benefits along with financial performance. Idealist concentrates on power-supply decarbonization, electrification of transportation, carbon reduction from industrial activity and advancement of the circular economy.

It has so far invested in four companies that meet its criteria, for a total outlay of $150-million. They include dcbel, a bi-directional EV charging company; XNRGY Climate Systems, which develops high-efficiency commercial HVAC units; SPARK Microsystems, which makes low-power semi-conductors for wireless communications; and Sollum Technologies, which specializes in smart LED lighting for greenhouses.

It targets Canadian companies that have reached the commercialization stage and require capital and expertise for expansion. Mr. Larochelle said this is when many entrepreneurs hit roadblocks or get acquired by larger U.S. companies and private-equity funds.

The partnership with CGF will change Idealist’s business by allowing it to do larger deals that are currently out of reach, and that will help companies keep ownership and head offices in Canada, Mr. Larochelle said.

“That’s a critical mission that they can play, and they focus on. So I think, the concessionary capital combined with the amount that they’re willing to deploy is going to have a meaningful impact,” he said.

Earlier today, the Canada Growth Fund which is being managed by PSP Investments as a separate program put out a press release on this deal which you can read here and below (they should also post it in HTML format):


 

I note the following:

“Today’s investment underscores CGF’s strategic role in Canada’s cleantech market, as a catalytic investor seeking to accelerate the growth of promising Canadian cleantech companies,” said Patrick Charbonneau, President and CEO of the Canada Growth Fund Investment Management team (“CGFIM”). “By supporting growth-stage cleantech managers, CGF is expanding access to capital in the Canadian market and playing an important role in supporting partners positioned to provide strategic direction and capital markets expertise.”

Idealist is an experienced team of investors with a track record of supporting the growth of cleantech businesses. The Fund’s strategy is focused on themes that fit well with CGF’s cleantech investment strategy, including the decarbonization of power supply, electrification of transportation, decarbonization of industrials, and promotion of a circular economy. Through this fund commitment, CGF is looking to position itself as a partner of choice to provide further support to companies with sizeable investments needs.


“Idealist is enthusiastic to partner with the Canada Growth Fund to accomplish our common goal of creating value for Canadians as we navigate the energy transition,” said Pierre Larochelle, Co-Managing Partner at Idealist. “With today’s commitment from CGF, we’re able to support much larger capital rounds and move faster to bring capital into the growing energy transition ecosystem to the benefit of Canadian entrepreneurs,” said Steeve Robitaille, Co-Managing Partner.

You can read more about Idealist Capital here and here is their focus:

Below, the profile of Co-Managing Partner Pierre Larochelle:

Mr. Pierre Larochelle has been an investor and financial advisor for the last 25 years. Mr. Larochelle was up until in 2021, Co-Managing Partner of Power Sustainable Renewable Infrastructure fund, a $1.0bn renewable energy infrastructure fund. Previously, Mr. Larochelle was President and CEO of Power Energy Corporation, a subsidiary of Power Corporation of Canada, focused on the renewable energy and sustainable sector. Mr. Larochelle focused for the last decade on climate impact investments in the renewable energy and storage sector, energy efficiency and electrification of transportation. Mr. Larochelle is the Chairman of the Board of The Lion Electric Company and Lumenpulse Group, and was previously Chairman and director of Potentia Renewables as well as director of Nautilus Solar and Eagle Creek Renewable Energy. Mr. Larochelle has also been an active private investor in early-stage tech and cleantech companies.

Prior to joining Power Corporation of Canada, Mr. Larochelle was President and CEO at Adaltis Inc. He also held the positions of Vice-President, Business Development at Picchio Pharma Inc, an healthcare private equity investment company, and Vice-President, M&A for CSFB in London, England. Mr. Larochelle holds a law degree from Université de Montréal, a masters degree in international business law from McGill University and an MBA degree from INSEAD in Fontainebleau.

And that of Co-Managing Partner Steeve Robitaille:

Mr. Robitaille brings up more than 25 years high-level legal and transaction experience.  He was serving as SVP, General Counsel / SVP, Strategic Projects for Bombardier Inc. between April 2019 until February 2021 where he played a key role in the strategic review that led to the transition to a pure-play business jet company and led a total of five  transactions totalling more than $11B in value. From May 2017 until April 2019, Mr. Robitaille was CLO and EVP, Merger and Acquisitions for WSP. During his tenure at WSP and Bombardier, Mr. Robitaille was actively involved in the definition and implementation of effective ESG policies.  

Before joining WSP, Mr. Robitaille was a senior partner of the law firm Stikeman, Elliott LLP where he practiced corporate law for over 20 years and was a member of its Partnership Board and Executive Committee.  Mr. Robitaille holds a law degree from Université Laval and has been a member of the Quebec Bar since 1994.

Alright, two smart and experienced investors who are now running a cleantech fund, investing in entrepreneurs to accelerate the transition to a cleaner economy.

It should also be noted that one of the partners is François Boudreault:

Mr. Boudreault has been investing in private equity for over 20 years. Mr. Boudreault was until August 2022 Managing Director and Deputy Head of Private Equity at CDPQ, where he co-head a global team of investment professionals with a mandate to build and manage a direct private equity portfolio of diversified investments in North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. He has invested more than C$5 billion in multiple sectors and served on several boards of portfolio companies during his tenure of 21 years at CDPQ.

He began his career at GE Capital – Commercial Equipment Finance in 2000. Mr. Boudreault holds a Master of Science in Administration (M.Sc.) in Finance from HEC Montréal, as well as a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation. Mr. Boudreault is a member of the Montreal Society of Financial Analysts.

I don't know how Mr. Boudreault got involved with this project (hope not through investing in them first) but he definitely has a lot of credible experience working at CDPQ's Private Equity team.

Now, what do I think of this investment? It's venture capital/ growth capital, by its very nature it's risky but you need to start making investments to fund entrepreneurs of tomorrow and cleantech definitely has a big role in this new fund.

Now, I'm going to give you some facts, typically Canadian pension funds invest 2-3% of their assets in venture capital/ growth equity and they spread their bets among many companies, hoping 5% to 10% really pay off handsomely

Why invest in venture capital and growth equity? Because that's where extraordinary returns lie if you pick them right, nurture these companies and are lucky.

Patrick Charbonneau, President and CEO of the Canada Growth Fund Investment Management and his team can invest directly in companies or through funds like Montreal’s Idealist Capital which invest in entrepreneurs.

Like I stated, this isn't an easy easy environment for venture capital or growth equity, but the mandate of the Canada Growth Fund is clear and this fund needs to grow significantly over the next three to five years.

Alright, let me wrap it up. You can also read Richard Dudour's LaPresse article (in French) for more on this deal.

One other thing to note is the Canada Growth Fund which is being run by PSP Investments is investing in Canadian companies.

Just putting that out there for all you who have high blood pressure worried that Canadian pension funds aren't investing enough in Canada (they are, they're just not big fans of Canadian equities or equities in general).

Below, on October 25th, 2023, a press conference held at Eavor’s central office in downtown Calgary hosted multiple high-profile industry leaders to announce Canada Growth Fund’s (CGF) $90m investment in Eavor, including Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Also, the more recent press release going over the $200 million investment in Entropy Inc, an Alberta based carbon capture company.

Let me just say I find it quite annoying that the Minister of Finance is presenting these deals instead of Patrick Charbonneau, the head of the Canada Growth Fund, but I get it, the federal government put up the $15 billion so it will use this to score political points (still annoys the hell out of me, politicians should stay in their lane).

Update: After reading this post, Neil Cunningham, PSP Investments' former CEO, shared this with me:

Nice to see you reporting on the Canada Growth Fund which, although managed by PSP, is outside your usual space since it isn’t pension money being invested here. There are two places in your article that seem to imply that PSP is investing pension money in the CGF, noted below:

“Now, I'm going to give you some facts, typically Canadian pension funds invest 2-3% of their assets in venture capital/ growth equity and they spread their bets among many companies, hoping 5% to 10% really pay off handsomely.”

“One other thing to note is the Canada Growth Fund which is being run by PSP Investments is investing in Canadian companies.

Just putting that out there for all you who have high blood pressure worried that Canadian pension funds aren't investing enough in Canada (they are, they're just not big fans of Canadian equities or equities in general)”.

You may want to tidy up the wording in your blog to avoid creating the wrong impression of the situation.

Neil is absolutely right, my wording was sloppy and might have left the wrong impression so let me be crystal clear, the Canada Growth Fund is federal government money being managed separately and independently by PSP Investments. 

My point is they need to properly scale and diversify this $15 billion in a difficult environment for VC/ growth equity but they can be patient and this down cycle will present excellent opportunities to invest in Canadian companies focusing on transition economy and cleantech. 

The Canada Growth Fund is investing in Canada but through private companies and this is a federal government backed program run independently by PSP Investments. I thank Neil for his wise observations.

CDPQ Appoints Rana Ghorayeb as EVP and Head of Real Estate

Pension Pulse -

Today, CDPQ announced the appointment of Rana Ghorayeb as Executive Vice-President and Head of Real Estate:

CDPQ today announced the appointment of Rana Ghorayeb as Executive Vice-President and Head of Real Estate. In her new role, she will be responsible for leading the overall Ivanhoé Cambridge portfolio and investment team, which has assets of over $77 billion.

Rana Ghorayeb has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Otéra Capital, a CDPQ subsidiary specialized in real estate lending, for nearly five years. Before joining CDPQ in 2012, Rana Ghorayeb already had an impressive track record in real estate in renowned institutions. She served as Vice-President of Acquisitions at JP Morgan Asset Management in London, England, where she was in charge of real estate investments in several European countries. Previously, she worked in New York, where she led real estate transactions as Senior Partner at TIAA, a major U.S. pension fund.

"Rana's career at CDPQ has been remarkable, first as Senior Vice-President in the Infrastructure team, where she forged partnerships and carried out investments across the globe that continue to benefit CDPQ. Then, as President and Chief Executive Officer of Otéra, where she distinguished herself as a leader. She successfully led the organization's profound transformation since joining five years ago, and headed the portfolio's growth and diversification strategy, which has made Otéra a major player in North America," said Charles Emond, President and Chief Executive Officer of CDPQ. "With over 25 years of experience in investing, including 20 years in real estate, both locally and internationally, Rana has a real passion for projects and assets that have a positive impact on people's lives. Her appointment to head the Ivanhoé Cambridge portfolio will enable her to combine her extensive investment knowledge with her top-tier managerial skills."

"I began working at CDPQ 12 years ago, and my attachment and my commitment to our organization have only grown stronger since then. I'm very pleased to be taking on this new role, which goes straight to the heart of what motivates me the most: projects that are anchored in people's day-to-day lives and built on creating and maintaining sustainable partnerships," said Rana Ghorayeb. "The real estate sector is facing big challenges, but Nathalie Palladitcheff and her team have transformed the portfolio to be better positioned for the future. Along with the Ivanhoé Cambridge team, I am delighted to be able to contribute to the next chapter at this pivotal moment for the industry, knowing that we have the key strengths to come out ahead. I would also like to thank all my current Otéra Capital teams, whose commitment and high-quality work drove our results and growth over the last five years."

Ivanhoé Cambridge's activities are currently being integrated, and as of April 29, 2024, this team will become an investment group within CDPQ. Rana Ghorayeb will start in her new position on the same date, and will report to the President and Chief Executive Officer of CDPQ. The appointment of Rana Ghorayeb follows the announcement that Nathalie Palladitcheff, who will remain in her position until the end of the gradual transition period, is leaving at the end of April.

"Over the last five years, Nathalie has achieved a great deal, with conviction and courage, to transform Ivanhoé Cambridge despite an extremely challenging real estate environment. I would like to sincerely thank her as she continues to work towards the harmonious integration of the real estate activities and teams into CDPQ, with all the empathy and diplomacy she is known for," concluded Charles Emond.

ABOUT CDPQ

At CDPQ, we invest constructively to generate sustainable returns over the long term. As a global investment group managing funds for public pension and insurance plans, we work alongside our partners to build enterprises that drive performance and progress. We are active in the major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private debt. As at December 31, 2023, CDPQ's net assets totalled CAD 434 billion. For more information, visit cdpq.com, consult our LinkedIn or Instagram pages, or follow us on X.

Let me begin with what I wrote on LinkedIn this afternoon when the news broke out:

Charles Emond nominated Rana Ghorayeb as the new EVP and Head of Real Estate. I'm not surprised as she has a stellar reputation within and outside the organization. As the integration of Ivanhoé Cambridge and Otera Capital employees within Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) continues, this nomination was needed and will help ensure solid leadership covering all real estate activities. Wish her all the best and see this as a positive development for employees, depositors and strategic partners.

Why am I not surprised? One of my friends who previously worked at CDPQ Infra and worked alongside her told me she's an excellent leader who is well liked and very competent.

And my friend doesn't give out compliments very easily (he also liked Michael Sabia, Macky Tall and his former boss Jean-Marc Arbaud who heads up REM, says they're all very competent professionals).

Others have also spoken highly to me about Rana who is now assuming a big role as Otéra Capital and Ivanhoé Cambridge get integrated into CDPQ (Ivanhoé will keep its brand name).

As the press release states, she will be responsible for leading the overall Ivanhoé Cambridge portfolio and investment team, which has assets of over $77 billion.

That's a big part of CDPQ's overall portfolio and the good news is outgoing Ivanhoé Cambridge CEO Nathalie Palladitcheff who recently shared her last assessment did a great job with her team to restructure and reposition that massive portfolio over the last five years.

In the press release both Charles Emond and Rana Ghorayeb acknowledged this with the latter stating: 

 "The real estate sector is facing big challenges, but Nathalie Palladitcheff and her team have transformed the portfolio to be better positioned for the future. Along with the Ivanhoé Cambridge team, I am delighted to be able to contribute to the next chapter at this pivotal moment for the industry, knowing that we have the key strengths to come out ahead. I would also like to thank all my current Otéra Capital teams, whose commitment and high-quality work drove our results and growth over the last five years."

Real estate is a hell of an asset class! When I first joined PSP back in 2003, there was no head of real estate and Gordon Fyfe subsequently hired André Collin soon after from Cadim where he served as President and Chief Operating Officer. 

At Cadim, he was responsible for over $20 billion in commercial real estate assets under management in debt and equity products on public and private markets around the world. He was also responsible for overseeing the Caisse's Real Estate Group’s international development and management. 

Anyway, at PSP, André's office was next to mine initially and we had several chats on real estate where he kept touting it as the best asset class since sliced cheese, delivering the "highest risk-adjusted returns for a decade at the Caisse" (probably did back then).

The guy is great opportunistic real estate investor but a ruthless real estate shark, and he made off like a bandit leaving PSP in 2007 and joining John Grayken's prestigious Lone Star Funds where he's still working as President, Commercial Real Estate Funds (his net worth is now in the hundreds of millions).

Anyway, it's a great fit for him and have to give him credit for lasting so long under Grayken who's probably the most demanding boss in real estate (and one of the best real estate investors in the world).

Collin also hired Neil Cunningham, PSP's former CEO, who is actually a very decent and smart guy, now advising Sagard as a member of the board of EverWest Real Estate Investors.

Where am I going with all this? Oh yeah, real estate, it sure isn't what is used to be in a post-pandemic world and some sectors are reeling harder than others but the rise in rates has hurt the asset class across the board.

The environment in real estate is extremely challenging and if inflation reemerges and growth slows, it will remain extremely challenging for a lot longer:

Indeed, I certainly hope inflation expectations don't boomerang back in the second half of the year because that will spell big trouble for the Fed and clobber most assets, especially bonds and real estate.

Of course, if that happens, Grayken, Collin and the rest of the real estate vultures all over the world will be busy picking up distressed properties for pennies on the dollar but competition will be fierce as there's a lot of dry powder out there.

I know, Blackstone's Jon Gray and Brookfield's Bruce Flatt are out full force saying better days lie ahead for real estate but I'm not feeling as confident as they are (see interviews below).

Anyways, this is going to be a challenging environment, especially if stagflation sets in, and I think it's good that Rana took the helm of CDPQ's real estate activities because now is the time to regroup and focus on delivering value add along with their strategic partners all over the world.

Keep in mind, she is already a member of CDPQ's executive committee and as this La Presse interview highlights, she had her share of challenges at Otéra Capital (translated from French):

At Otéra Capital, the difficulties to overcome were going to be numerous. “When I arrived in my position almost four years ago, I immediately understood that I was going to have to deal with a serious breakdown in trust from both the team and the customers,” she says. “Then, shortly after, it was the arrival of COVID-19 which forced us to send everyone home and organize teleworking, not to mention the labor shortage that the pandemic would create. cause,” she adds.

In less than four years under her leadership, Otéra Capital's staff grew from 110 to 169 employees, and the loan portfolio increased by 43%. The opening of an office in New York now offers better diversification and has helped capture good business opportunities both there and here. Loans in the United States now represent 25% of loans granted compared to 5% four years ago. The firm has also adopted a strategy targeting the Quebec economy, and commitments already amount to nearly $6 billion, explains the president.

She adds that she inherited a solid team that was already performing well. The important thing for her was to revitalize the structure and take the team further. Rana Ghorayeb is delighted with the atmosphere that now reigns in the office.

Ms. Ghorayeb sits on the CHUM Foundation, as well as on the board of governors of Concordia University, where she obtained a master's degree in engineering and a bachelor's degree in urban planning. She also holds a master's degree in finance from New York University.

She's highly educated, multilingual (Lebanese descent), very accomplished but what impressed me the most is what she told that reporter:

"Four years ago, the people I passed in the corridors had their heads down and looked at the ground. Today, they are all walking with their heads held high, smiling and happy with what we have achieved together."

Great leaders motivate their troops in good and especially bad times, that's either a trait you possess or don't (very few have this ability to inspire especially when a storm hits).

Alright, let me wrap it up, my head is about to explode with all the back and forth following my last comment on why Canada's pensions need to be part of the solution (see extended update at the end of that post)

Let's just say I sympathize with that famous Al Pacino line: "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in."

Below, a recent and older interview with Rana Ghorayeb, CDPQ's new Executive Vice-President and Head of Real Estate.

I also embedded the latest interviews with Blackstone's Jon Gray and Brookfield's Bruce Flatt discussing trends in commercial real estate. 

I hope these two real estate titans are right and better days lie ahead, I remain very cautious and very focused on the macro environment and what can go wrong if inflation expectations pick up.

Daniel Brosseau on Why Canada's Pensions Need to Be Part of the Solution

Pension Pulse -

Daniel Brosseau of LetkoBrosseau Global Investment Management sent me their analysis of arguments for and against investing in Canada:

Since the publication of the Open Letter signed by more than 90 business and union leaders in Canada addressing the role of pension funds in the Canadian economy, a much-needed debate has arisen on how Canada can reverse its declining prosperity. We welcome such an important conversation and kindly thank all the signatories for helping to start it.

The document presents the arguments that are being made and analyzes their basis. Some of the analysis is simple fact checking of claims that are being put forth (returns, failure of dual mandates, ...). Other analysis discusses commonly accepted precepts and their application (linking allocation to size of market, government regulatory role, ...). Finally there are novel concepts that appear not yet well understood (role of domestic investment, how the pension manager perspective is severely limited compared to the wider macro-economic perspective, ...).

There are evidently straw men being put forth that are easy to burn down but are not what is being discussed. Some examples include: this is a debate about public equity;  governments want to go back to the 10% rule; the proponents of greater Canadian  prosperity are conflicted; pension funds will be asked to increase their Canadian investments rapidly; ...

The essence of the Open Letter is not to force pension funds to do anything or limit their flexibility. It is about figuring out how to not ignore the enormous impact and benefits of domestic investment on the Canadian economy and the role pension funds, as aggregators of the largest pool of institutional savings in the country, can and must play in Canada’s future development.

We encourage you to read this analysis and hope you will find it useful.

So here is the analysis he sent me earlier today, part of their "Invest in Canada" series which is available on their website here:



Again, this analysis, the open letter and more material is available on LetkoBrosseau's website here.

Daniel Brosseau and Peter Letko were also invited to the 100th meeting of the House of Commons’ Standing Committee on Finance, where they discussed the importance of Investing in Canada.

You can watch that entire video clip here and read the transcript of Daniel's opening statement here

I think it's worth reading the transcript of Daniel's opening statement (added emphasis is mine):

Thank you for inviting us.

We would like to talk to you about pension savings, how they are invested and the major transformations that have occurred over the last 30 years. Many changes have been unintended, and several have been quite damaging for both individual pensioners and the Canadian economy.

The negative effects include a substantial decline in private sector employees covered by pension plans, a rise in much less efficient defined contribution plans at the expense of defined benefit plans, an increased reliance on subjective, opaque, and illiquid private markets, disinvestment from transparent, liquid public markets, increased investment in low return bonds, increased herding to the detriment of independent fundamental analysis resulting in a decrease of vitality.

But the negative effect effect that seems to attract the most attention has been the dramatic drop of Canadian public equities held by Canadian pension funds from 80% of their total equities in 1990 to probably less than 10% now representing less than 4% of their total assets.

The argument most often used to justify this behaviour is the expectation of higher returns in foreign markets.

In fact, returns in Canada have historically exceeded most other world markets and by comparison, current valuation metrics are quite favourable.

But let us assume for a moment that returns in Canada will be lower. The question remains whether maximizing single portfolio returns to the exclusion of other factors is the correct global strategy for the country as a whole?

If pension funds siphon away Canadian savings under the guise of higher expected returns without considering the effect this may have on the ability of their contributors to earn incomes, the return calculations are incomplete from the point of view of the Canadian economy.

A $100 invested outside the country may generate an extra dollar in returns, but the impact of the absence of the $100 invested in the local economy may be much greater. The loss in domestic investment, sales, salaries, and profits because of a lack of local investment by committed domestic investors can easily overshadow any pickup in income that may have come from a higher return elsewhere.

We may have already started to see the effects of this dynamic. GDP per capita in Canada in 1980 was 92% of US GDP per capita. This had fallen to 73% by 2020.

Consider these two cases:

  1.  A Canadian investor takes $100 of savings and invests it abroad. A昀琀er one year, they repatriate the $100 and $10 of pro昀椀t. Their return is 10%.
  2. A Canadian investor takes $100 of savings and invests it in a machine that produces $205 of product in the year. The costs are $100 of labour salaries and $100 of wear on the machine, leaving $5 of pro昀椀t. Their return is 5%.

In case 1 Canada’s GDP would rise by $10, the profit. In case 2, GDP in Canada would rise by $205, the salaries, the machine, and the profit.

From the Canadian investor’s point of view, the foreign investment gives a higher return but from a GDP perspective, from a GDP per capita perspective, from the perspective of Canada’s ability to save, the domestic investment is by far the better one. In addition to these considerations, foreign investments can also present governance, political, legal, currency, supply, and other risks which can sometimes be better managed domestically.

It is unreasonable to think that Canadian pension funds will see the opportunity cost of the loss of investments to the Canadian economy, to the ability of their contributors to earn good incomes and save.

They cannot consider what they cannot see. As a result, moral suasion cannot correct for these negative effects. Only a national policy reflected in appropriate regulation can constructively deal with the problem.

In 2021, investment in Canada accounted for 20.2% of GDP compared to 18.2% in the United States. What these statistics hide is that investment in residential real-estate in Canada was 9.7% versus 4.9% in the United States. Which left 10.4% for non-residential investment in Canada and 13.3% in the United States, close to 30% more. On a per capita basis the United States invests 75% more!

There is room in Canada for more non-residential investments. Given that Canada is a less developed economy than the United States, it may need even more again.

We have prepared a series of reports that examine these unintended and undesirable effects resulting from the changes that have occurred in pension management over the last 30 years. Evidently none of this can be corrected overnight but some relatively simple solutions can be implemented which can incentivize the proper behaviours without imposing strict constraints.

It is incumbent on government to regulate these behaviours.

Thank you again.

Wow! Where do I begin? The Milton Friedman in me just wanted to scream "Daniel, you got it all wrong!" after reading this statement (just like OTPP's inaugural CEO Claude Lamoureux who told me I didn't know what I was talking about when I appeared at the House of Commons’ Standing Committee on Finance back in 2009 to castigate Canada's large pension funds for taking stupid risks and paying themselves huge bonuses after losing billions back then).

Let me be very clear on where I agree and disagree with Daniel Brosseau and Peter Letko who are lot smarter, wealthier and more powerful than me but I don't care about status and prestige, I still write my comments very openly and bluntly (in case you haven't noticed).

I completely agree with Daniel that Canada's GDP per capita has declined from 92% of US GDP per capita in 1980 to 73% by 2020. 

That's a fact and it is a very worrisome trend because our standard of living and that of our children and grandchildren is declining along with that trend.

Where I completely disagree with him and Peter Letko is the inference that lack of domestic investment in Canada on the part of Canada's Maple Eight (which invest heavily in Canada) has contributed to this significant decline in GDP per capita and thus -- to use his own words -- "it is incumbent on government to regulate these behaviours" and rectify this situation.

There is a much bigger problem at play here, government policies that have not incentivized large foreign and domestic institutional funds and large multinational corporations to invest more in Canada.

In other words, the significant decline in productivity gains in Canada are largely due to tax and other policies (including immigration and housing), lack of privatization of infrastructure assets, and other problematic policies which have set us back decades and my fear is we are losing sight of this and erroneously believe that if only Canada's large pension funds invested more in Canada, our GDP per capita will quickly catch up to that of the United States.

It won't and this is the biggest issue I have with the statement above and the inferences and prescription it's making and proposes.

I'm sorry if this will hurt many Canadians but I live in a harsh world called capitalism and in my world, the US is so far ahead of Canada, Australia, Europe, Latin America and Asia when it comes to GDP per capita and innovation that I truly feel it's almost hopeless to think we are ever going to come close to closing this gap.

Yes, Canada has great universities, a stable democracy, an overly generous safety net, we have very smart people but we definitely lack the venture capital ecosystem they have down south and that's not because we aren't investing in emerging technology companies, it's just that we will never compete with Silicon Valley and we will never compete with the NASDAQ exchange. No country ever will.

This is why I concur with the foreign exchange policy of Canada's large pension funds which for the most part do not hedge their US dollar exposure. 

I too am long US dollars in my personal investments and have made a conscious choice to only invest/ trade US stocks (mostly US biotech stocks).

It's not that I don't know or don't like Canadian equities, know them extremely well and have nothing against them, it's just that I prefer the most liquid, most innovative markets in the world and that is and will always be US markets.

Sure, there's a tech bubble going on right now and US stocks risk underperforming Canadian and foreign ones for a while but I'm far from convinced, just like I'm far from convinced that Canadian equities will perform well in the future with the soaring debt crisis that looms large over us right now after eight years of a Liberal government that has destroyed our public finances.

Aren't the US and Europe in the same fiscal boat? Yes but the US economy is hell of a lot more diverse, innovative and robust than ours and that of European nations. 

Nobody knows what the future holds, by definition it's unknowable, which is yet another reason for our large pension funds to prudently diversify outside of Canada where it makes perfect sense to obtain the highest risk-adjusted returns possible across public and private markets.

That's another issue I have with Daniel's opening statement, his bias against illiquid private markets where valuations are "subjective and opaque" in favor of "liquid and transparent public markets" comes through loud and clear.

I realize that as Canada's large pension funds invest a significant part of their assets in private markets (40% to 50%+) it leaves the door open to criticism and skepticism that they fudge their numbers to beat their benchmark and obtain millions in bonuses (at least the top brass) but this is the wrong way to think about it.

The right way to think about it is they are managing 70 to 80% of the assets internally across public and private markets, saving on fees and costs, and adding significant value over the long run.

Do we need a lot more transparency on where Canada's large pension funds invest and how they value private markets? You bet and we also need detailed performance audits on all these large pension funds performed by OSFI or another independent entity to make sure the risks they are taking are commensurate with the benchmarks they gauge their performance against (forget the Auditor General of Canada or Quebec which rubber stamp their auditors' reports and forget their respective board of directors which have plenty to oversee, in my opinion they would also benefit from an independent third party report).

But what we don't need is more government regulations forcing our large pension funds to invest more in Canada (trust me, they invest more than they should in Canada, especially when compared to Norway's giant pension fund).

What about Canadian companies "starving for capital"? Well, I suggest instead of signing an open letter encouraging our large pension funds to invest more in Canada, they sit down with key policymakers in Ottawa and change asinine tax, immigration and housing policies that are detrimental to our economy and are scaring away foreign and domestic investors.

What else? I do agree with Daniel Brosseau that CDPQ's dual mandate has worked well for them and I also agree it's stupid comparing CDPQ's long-term performance to that of CPP Investments which until recently was a partially funded plan exclusively that is able to take on a lot more risk in private equity and other private markets than its large Canadian peers (33% of its assets are in private equity).

But as I told Daniel in my email exchanges earlier, the success of CDPQ's Quebec portfolio has more to do with its private investments where it has more control than its investments in public equities and this mandate carries risks as well as opportunities. 

I clearly remember a time when I was working at the Caisse where that Quebec portfolio was a mess, performing terribly and it was fraught with fraud, abuse and other shady practices.

This is the dark side of forcing pension funds to invest more at home and while fraud, abuse and shady practices can also occur investing abroad, the risks are magnified investing at home (in my opinion).

Sure good governance and good operational risk management are suppose to mitigate shady activity but trust me, where there's big money involved, there's a heightened risk of corruption.

Lastly, and I really want emphasize this, we all want what is in the best interest of our country and its citizens, we just have different views on how to fix things.

Daniel Brosseau and Peter Letko are Canadian investment legends, they deserve a lot of respect for what they built and more importantly for opening up a conversation on the way our large pension funds invest and where they invest.

I just do not agree with their prescription to fix a structural productivity problem caused by years of successive governments (Conservatives and Liberals) that have failed to implement the right policies to attract foreign and domestic investments.

Forcing or "encouraging" Canada's pension funds to invest more in Canada isn't the right approach.

The right approach is changing policies and privatizing assets especially infrastructure assets like other G7 countries are doing to pay down debt and have these asset run more efficiently by private sector entities (not just large pension funds but also the Brookfields and Blackstones of this world).

So let me end this long ramble by thanking Daniel Brosseau for sending me over their analysis and lighting a fire in me earlier today with our spirited back and forth email exchanges, but I remain resolutely in the camp that our governments shouldn't meddle with our large pension funds.

There is nothing Daniel Brosseau, Peter Letko, Tullio Cedraschi, or anyone else that signed that open letter including friends of mine can say to change my mind on this topic.

I will listen to their views, read their analysis but for me the fundamental productivity problem will only be rectified when policymakers in Ottawa put on their big boy and girl pants and start getting to work to make sure we have policies in place to attract more foreign and domestic investment. 

As far as pensions are concerned, let them focus on investing in the best opportunities across the globe in public and private markets, making sure they are building up generational wealth to pay future Canadian retirees.

By the way, those future generations which are contributing now to enhanced CPP will benefit from increased CPP payments later on and so will our economy and country as they spend more in retirement -- those dividends were conveniently left out of LetkoBrosseau's analysis which is why I urge you to read Stephen Poloz's analysis as well. 

As I stated a couple of weeks ago, let's do what's right for the country, let's make sure we strengthen, not weaken, our retirement system and let's introduce policies that make our industries more competitive and stronger, thus attracting more foreign and domestic investment. 

I will obviously let Daniel Brosseau respond to my remarks as I expect him to criticize me for "not sticking to facts" but I will remind him and others that I work all day analyzing and trading markets (blowing off steam on LinkedIn to deal with the stress) and I put in hours after the close to write blog commentaries covering pertinent issues.

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with my views, show some respect and contribute financially to this blog to support it, encouraging words don't pay my bills, only my trading and my blog (to a far lesser extent) do. 

Thank you to all of you who I don't need to hound for your annual contributions, for the rest of you, get ready because I too am going to ask for a well-earned increase!

For more views on this topic, please the time to read Barbara Shecter's excellent article on why the Liberals' 'dangerous' pursuit of Canada's pension billions keeps falling flat. It is a little long but has further insights on why governments shouldn't meddle with our large pensions. 

Below, Jim Leech, former president and CEO of Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about why he thinks the open letter calling on Canadian pension funds to invest more at home is counterproductive. He also talks about the incentives needed to get our pension funds to funnel more dollars to Canadian projects. 

Update: As you can appreciate, this post generated a lot of feedback.

First, Daniel Brosseau replied:

Thank you for your review and presenting the pros and cons of Investing In Canada. This is an important debate and a consensus will not be reached overnight. The arguments will need to be presented and stand on their own merits.

For Canada to need to be the best place on earth to invest in before we stop diverting our savings away from our economic development may make us a little late. Investors need to be engaged and help create that environment we need. In the meantime, the  Canadian financial markets are being emptied out, not quite what is needed.

We cannot say governments have no policy interest in where pension funds invest and then ask those governments to sell them their developed and monopolistic assets at some great price. It is a bit duplicitous.

In any event, nobody is asking the government to force pension funds to invest in anything. The ask is that there be something that enters into the investment calculus to differentiate domestic from foreign investment, and the considerable impact difference domestic investments have on the economy and the incomes of future and present pensioners. When we were managing pension assets subject to the 10% foreign property limit, we never once blamed bad results on the constraint. We simply did our job and had great returns.

Numbers are sometimes very maddening things. As much as we would love to explain that pension funds have not invested in Canada because they want better returns, the facts are that Canada has been one of the best places in the world to invest over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 100 years. Who would believe this after listening to the naysayers.

On the CDPQ, the last numbers I saw were that the Quebec based public companies have outperformed the TSX by 4% per year over the last 10 years. So much for the help from private companies. Go figure.

Pension funds are highly subsidized entities and it is not only the right but the obligation of governments that the tax benefit they confer benefit all Canadians. The Canadian government`s role is not to subsidize the development of the United States or China.

Thanks again for your blog post and discussing this important issue.

He later added this:

In any event, the larger pension funds in this country are all government plans or government sponsored plans where pensions are guaranteed by the government. What the pensioners have is a government undertaking to pay them a pension. In a way the money in the plans is how the government has decided to set funds aside to finance the pensions it will have to pay. It is in some sense government money. So selling government assets to the plans is just taking money out of one government pocket and putting it into the other. This shuffling does not help economic development and is not private sector dynamism.

Without getting into the entire subsequent exchange, I took issue with some of his statements above.

First, Canada's large pension funds are engaged and do help create that environment we need. They invest considerable amounts in Canada across many asset classes, just not a lot in publicly listed equities (which I honestly feel is where Daniel, Peter and others are overly concerned/ focused on).

Second, it's high time that our provincial and federal governments follow Australia, the UK and other countries and privatize infrastructure assets. This should be a fair, open and competitive bidding process which allows domestic and foreign investors to bid on these assets and create added value and jobs in the process and long-term prosperity.

As far as CDPQ's Quebec publicly listed companies, I don't know where he got his figures since I checked with my sources and they are not publicly available.

One person added this:

I honestly don't know the actual numbers of private versus public in CDPQ's Quebec portfolio but I can name several PIPEs that did extremely well like CGI, Couche-Tard, WSP and Intact. On an absolute basis these public trades can contribute a lot just based on sheer size and ease of deployment versus what can be deployed privately. For that reason, I would add Valeant to the list, a name that was bought and sold in a timely fashion prior to the debacle, for a gain that would have taken the private guys years to get, even in position for. Of course, SNC was a detractor to this fine record. Rona would also be as well, owing to a brutal entry price.(in my time, it was Nortel)

When I stated most of the returns in CDPQ's Quebec portfolio came from privates it's because I was thinking of Circle du Soleil, Boralex, REM and prized real estate assets.

To be very honest, I wish CDPQ published a comprehensive, detailed performance history of all the major deals in their Quebec portfolio across public and private markets and yes, they have done well and fulfilled their dual mandate, no doubt about that.

However, I think we need to be very careful making inferences from CDPQ to other large Canadian pensions and thinking if a dual mandate works there, why not impose it on others as results will be easily replicated.

The brutal truth is I see a long difficult period ahead for all pensions investing all over the world and we need to allow them to make the best investments as they see fit taking all risks into consideration.

On the point of pension funds being "highly subsidized entities and it is not only the right but the obligation of governments that the tax benefit they confer benefit all Canadians," I reminded Daniel that employers (governments) and employees only make up 20% of assets in contributions, the rest (80%) comes from investment gains that pension fund managers need to generate in the best interest of contributors and beneficiaries.

In fact, Jim Leech, former CEO of OTPP shared this  with me:

In any event, the larger pension funds in this country are all government plans or government sponsored plans where pensions are guaranteed by the government. What the pensioners have is a government undertaking to pay them a pension. In a way the money in the plans is how the government has decided to set funds aside to finance the pensions it will have to pay. It is in some sense government money. So selling government assets to the plans is just taking money out of one government pocket and putting it into the other. This shuffling does not help economic development and is not private sector dynamism.

Pension funds are highly subsidized entities and it is not only the right but the obligation of governments that the tax benefit they confer benefit all Canadians.

The above statements are just another part of the disinformation campaign this group is running. 

First: Although I do not know the legal inner workings of the Alberta and Quebec pension plans (whose assets are managed by AIMCO and CDPQ), nor of PSP, the fact is that CPP and the Ontario jointly sponsored plans are not guaranteed by any government. If, for example, Teachers’ has a deficit then benefits must go down and/or contributions go up – THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES FROM ANYONE. The same holds for CPP – contrary to the above statement there is no guarantee from governments. I am shocked that participants in this campaign would not know this – or is it a deliberate untruth?

How do these targeted plans work: each month employees contribute a fraction of their wages to the plan. Their employer contributes a similar amount. These funds are pooled with all other employees in the fund and invested on their behalf by professional managers. The relationship is akin to a “trust” – the plan holds these funds on behalf of the employee beneficiaries  – the employer has no rights or claim over the funds. On average the resultant pension payouts are derived 20% from contributions and 80% from investment income ie the investment return component is critical; a few basis points can make a huge difference in a retiree’s pension.

One thing that is so galling about this disinformation campaign is that the proponents want to put artificial constraints on how workers/retirees invest their retirement savings as part of some non-defined public goal and require that those workers/retirees bear the entire risk that the returns might not be there and thus their pension reduced– REALLY!!!! 

Second: Pension funds are not “highly subsidized” – it is true that all pension plans (public/private/DB/DC/RRSPs/etc) enjoy various levels of tax deferral ie tax is deferred today but is paid tomorrow – it depends on the investment return and discount rate assumed whether or not the individual worker/pensioner is net positive or negative. Studies I recall seeing indicate that the net present value of the  “cost”, if any, to the government coffers is minimal. In fact, many of the plans are mature ie the pension payouts (fully taxable as ordinary income in pensioners’ hands) far exceed contributions (tax deferred). Also, remember that capital gains received by the plans ends up taxed as ordinary income in the pensioners hands! 

The math is complex, but the plans are not highly subsidized and the governments have no inherent rights/obligations to direct the funds

Such a statement also runs counter- productive to the public policy rationale creating pension plans: to encourage workers to save so they are not impoverished in retirement and become a far greater burden on future generations. It is a non sequitur that this gives governments the right/obligation to employ the savings that these workers have accumulated to fund their retirement as government may wish.

And why only single out teachers, hospital, and provincial workers/retirees?? Perhaps constraints should be imposed on other pools of savings eg savings resulting from proceeds of stock options or investment management fees (sorry – had to take that poke), RRSP’s, Defined Contribution Plans, proceeds from house sales, etc.

For the record, I was paid well at Teachers’ but that was over a decade ago. I have zero connection to Teaches’ and am not a member of their pension plan. My interest/passion is not to see us turn the clock back 30/40 years when most of the plans which are targeted by this disinformation campaign were in big trouble with large deficits (unfortunately, most government/business leaders are too young to remember that time). Canada took decisive action to address this issue – CPP was reformed and CPPIB created (outside government); the big Ontario plans were taken out of government and freed to invest in all investment instruments (remember the days when Teachers’ was run by the Ontario government and invested entirely in below market government debentures, resulting in a funding ratio of 70ish percent!!!). 

As a result of this new Canadian Model, with improved governance/accountability and professional investment management independent of government with the ability to invest in the entire global capital market, all of these plans are now solvent and the financial future for all plan members (incl all Canadians in CPP) is more secure. Compare that to other jurisdictions where cities have gone bankrupt, most public plans are way under water and federal social security is in jeopardy. Looking back, you have to take your hat off to those policy makers and unions who created this Canadian Model. Jurisdictions around the globe are trying to emulate it. Why should we jeopardize it for no reason.

A few additional comments:

  1. By its very definition, putting artificial constraints on the investible universe will/can lead to sub optimal returns over time – irrefutable!
  2. Of course, the targeted plans will always look to invest in Canada – information advantage, lower currency risk – provided they still maintain appropriate risk mitigation through diversification and the risk rated returns of the opportunity meet their thresholds. To my knowledge, there has not been a good (in terms of risk weighted return) Canadian investment opportunity that has failed to attract capital either domestically or from international sources. Perhaps there are ideas that were brought to market that did not attract capital; but that is not due to a lack of supply of capital – rather it is a reflection of the merits (again, risk weighted return) of the particular investment.
  3. CN pension plan of years ago was undoubtedly the gold standard of its time (besides equities/bonds that they largely managed directly, they had private equity, real estate, oil/gas investments, etc.) Most other pools of capital were invested only through expensive asset managers and focused primarily on fixed income; and the public plans (the ones being targeted in this disinformation campaign) weren’t even a factor as they were managed by government and invested exclusively in government bonds.

It was a different time.

Today the competing pools of capital are much larger and the competition from domestic players as well as foreign players is much greater. To reduce risk the large plans must diversify their exposure – by instrument, geography, industry, currency, etc – in order to deliver the financial security that the plans (not the government) have promised their beneficiaries. Artificially constraining their investment universe inhibits their ability to provide that security.

In my view, what needs to be addressed is increasing the supply of good Canadian investment opportunities (as stated previously there is more than enough available capital from both domestic and foreign sources for good Canadian investments). Governments gave a number of policy levers to effect this:

  1. Eliminate interprovincial trade barriers
  2. Tax policy to stimulate R&D, innovation, risk taking
  3. De-risking investments eg Canada Infrastructure Bank, Ontario Infrastructure Bank
  4. Ensuring that stable, transparent Regulations and Regulatory Agencies – Canada has unfortunately sullied its reputation and lost the trust of some investors as a safe place to invest due to a number of politically expedient about turns that have hurt investors. Money has a long memory; introducing artificial constraints as suggested will only add to that aura of mistrust.
  5. Divesting non-core assets (like all other jurisdictions do) to free up capital to invest in priority areas.

We will not get there by artificially forcing workers/retirees to put their retirement savings into the existing universe of public equity opportunities simply because they are in Canada. All that will do is push up the cost, reduce risk adjusted returns and undeservedly reward existing share and employee option holders (there I go again).

I thank Jim for sharing his wise insights and agree with his points and recommendations.

Lastly, while I value their insights and push for a more transparent debate, I'm not sure Daniel Brosseau and Peter Letko are the best people to push for this agenda given the perceived conflicts of interest.

One pension fund manager shared this with me last night: 

I find it astounding that no one is pointing out the obvious, which is how Letko and Brosseau stand to move from multi millionaires to billionaires by politically pressuring the pension funds to invest in Canadian equities.

Of course Daniel and Peter take issue with such accusations sharing this with me: 

Let me put this very clearly, neither Peter, myself or the 90 plus signatories of the letter are doing this to get rich! It is insulting and absurd. It should be beneath you and those that find no better argument. Just to repeat the argument, even if not agreeing with it, is to cast aspersions and indirectly associate oneself to it. Why else mention it?

The simple reason I'm putting this out is because a lot of people are thinking it and while I don't think any of the signatories are doing this to get rich, Canadians deserve to know if there are any potential conflicts of interest.

The same goes for current and former pension fund CEOs who tout and defend Canada's "gold standard pension governance model" and scream "hands off", what is their angle? Are they really concerned about strengthening our retirement system or about ensuring they and their successors continue to collect multi-million dollar bonus packages doing what they do without being scrutinized or held accountable through an independent performance audit?

As I stated in my post, I live in a harsh world called capitalism, been at this blog long enough and in this business long enough to know everyone has an angle and everyone is talking up their book.

Alright, back to markets, I've discussed this issue in detail and given everyone the best platform and exposure they can get to put out their views (you're welcome).

CPP Investments Inks US$750 million Strategic Partnership With Redwood Trust

Pension Pulse -

Emilio Ghigini of Investing.com reports Redwood Trust and CPP Investments form $750M capital partnership:

Redwood Trust, Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:RWT), a company specializing in housing credit, and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments), announced a strategic capital partnership valued at $750 million. The alliance includes a $500 million Asset Joint Venture and a $250 million corporate secured financing facility provided by CPP Investments to Redwood.

The Joint Venture will invest in Redwood's residential investor bridge and term loans, aiming for over $4 billion in acquisitions. Redwood and its subsidiaries will manage the assets for the Joint Venture. Equity contributions will be up to $500 million, with CPP Investments providing 80% and Redwood 20%. Redwood stands to earn administrative and potential performance fees.

The financing facility has a two-year term with a one-year extension option and is designed with revolving capacity to facilitate the growth of Redwood's mortgage banking platforms. Additionally, CPP Investments will receive warrants to acquire Redwood common stock, initially worth about $15 million, with the option for an additional $36 million upon meeting certain conditions.

Christopher Abate, CEO of Redwood, expressed enthusiasm for the partnership, highlighting its alignment with Redwood's growth strategy and potential to scale its mortgage banking business. David Colla of CPP Investments also remarked on the opportunity to invest in U.S. residential mortgage assets with Redwood.

Earlier today, CPP Investments issued a press release announcing a US$750 million strategic capital partnership with Redwood Trust:

MILL VALLEY, CA/Toronto, Canada (March 19, 2024) –– Redwood Trust, Inc. (NYSE: RWT; “Redwood” or the “Company”), a leader in expanding access to housing for homebuyers and renters, and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (“CPP Investments”), through subsidiaries of CPPIB Credit Investments Inc., today announced a US$750 million strategic capital partnership.

The partnership consists of a newly formed US$500 million Asset Joint Venture and a US$250 million corporate secured financing facility that CPP Investments is providing to Redwood.

The Joint Venture will initially invest across the broad suite of Redwood’s residential investor bridge and term loans, targeting more than US$4 billion in total acquisitions. Redwood and its subsidiaries will administer the assets on behalf of the Joint Venture. Together, CPP Investments and Redwood will contribute up to US$500 million of equity to the Joint Venture, with an anticipated split of 80% from CPP Investments and 20% from Redwood. Redwood will earn ongoing fees to oversee the administration of the Joint Venture and is entitled to earn additional performance fees upon realization of specified return hurdles.

The secured corporate financing will have total capacity of up to US$250 million and carry a two-year term, with a one-year extension option. The facility is structured with revolving capacity to support the continued growth and scale of Redwood’s mortgage banking platforms.

To further promote long-term strategic alignment, CPP Investments will also receive warrants to acquire Redwood common stock in an initial amount of approximately US$15 million with the option to acquire up to an additional US$36 million if certain joint venture deployment targets are achieved1. The warrants are struck at a 25% premium to the trailing 30-day average stock price and have anti-dilution mechanics including a mandatory conversion feature.

“We are thrilled to announce this strategic partnership with CPP Investments, whose experienced team sees the power of Redwood’s franchise and the financial assets we procure,” said Christopher Abate, Chief Executive Officer of Redwood. “Last year, we unveiled a key initiative to evolve our investment approach, deploying capital side-by-side with strategic investing partners and driving organic scale within our operating platforms. Today’s announcement is a critical step forward in that evolution, one which we believe supports the unprecedented growth opportunities in front of us to scale our mortgage banking businesses and generates attractive earnings streams for our shareholders.”

“This investment partnership with Redwood provides an attractive opportunity to deploy capital at scale into residential mortgage assets alongside a well-established leader in the U.S. mortgage credit sector with a 30-year proven track record,” said David Colla, Managing Director, Head of Capital Solutions, CPP Investments. “We have confidence in Redwood’s long-term growth strategy and the strength of their origination franchise. This transaction expresses our positive thesis on U.S. housing and other asset-backed credit opportunities.”

For additional information on this announcement, please see the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Redwood with the SEC concurrently with the publication of this press release.

About Redwood

Redwood Trust, Inc. (NYSE: RWT) is a specialty finance company focused on several distinct areas of housing credit. Our operating platforms occupy a unique position in the housing finance value chain, providing liquidity to growing segments of the U.S. housing market not well served by government programs. We deliver customized housing credit investments to a diverse mix of investors, through our best-in-class securitization platforms; whole-loan distribution activities; and our publicly traded shares. Our aggregation, origination and investment activities have evolved to incorporate a diverse mix of residential, business purpose and multifamily assets. Our goal is to provide attractive returns to shareholders through a stable and growing stream of earnings and dividends, capital appreciation, and a commitment to technological innovation that facilitates risk-minded scale. We operate our business in three segments: Residential Mortgage Banking, Business Purpose Mortgage Banking and Investment Portfolio. Additionally, through RWT Horizons™, our venture investing initiative, we invest in early-stage companies strategically aligned with our business across the lending, real estate, and financial technology sectors to drive innovations across our residential and business-purpose lending platforms. Since going public in 1994, we have managed our business through several cycles, built a track record of innovation, and established a best-in-class reputation for service and a common-sense approach to credit investing. Redwood Trust is internally managed and structured as a real estate investment trust (“REIT”) for tax purposes. For more information about Redwood, please visit our website at www.redwoodtrust.com or connect with us on LinkedIn.

About CPP Investments

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments™) is a professional investment management organization that manages the Fund in the best interest of the more than 22 million contributors and beneficiaries of the Canada Pension Plan. In order to build diversified portfolios of assets, investments are made around the world in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure and fixed income. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Luxembourg, Mumbai, New York City, San Francisco, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan and at arm’s length from governments. At December 31, 2023, the Fund totalled C$590.8 billion. For more information, please visit www.cppinvestments.com or follow us on LinkedInInstagram or on X @CPPInvestments.

1 Represents the aggregate exercise price of the warrants.

I think it's worth noting what David Colla, Managing Director, Head of Capital Solutions, CPP Investments states in the press release:

“This investment partnership with Redwood provides an attractive opportunity to deploy capital at scale into residential mortgage assets alongside a well-established leader in the U.S. mortgage credit sector with a 30-year proven track record. We have confidence in Redwood’s long-term growth strategy and the strength of their origination franchise. This transaction expresses our positive thesis on U.S. housing and other asset-backed credit opportunities.”

Last I checked, the affordability crisis continues to ravage the US housing market and people are staying put because they cannot afford to move and lose the low mortgage rate they locked in during the pandemic:

But this will not last forever and when rates start falling, residential mortgage market will start seeing increased activity as long as the US economy doesn't fall into a deep and prolonged recession.

And even if it does, at one point, residential mortgages will take off again and by entering this strategic capital partnership with Redwood Trust, CPP Investments will benefit from this deal.

Note the way it was structured through CPP Investments' credit group and with warrants to acquire shares in Redwood if certain venture deployment targets are achieved, was all thought out carefully as a way to get the best risk-adjusted returns and promote long-term strategic alignment.

As far as Redwood Trust, note the following:

 Redwood Trust is a leading participant in several distinct areas of housing credit. Our consolidated portfolio has evolved to incorporate a diverse mix of residential, business purpose and multifamily investments. Our risk-minded culture and our values — which emphasize passion, integrity, change, growth, relationships, and results — underlie our methodical pursuit of becoming the nation’s most innovative participant in housing credit.

Also worth noting Redwood Trust has been around for 30 years and is a publicly listed REIT that offers a decent dividend:

Notice the big dip in shares during the onset of the pandemic and then activity came roaring back as rates plunged to historic lows. I bring this up to your attention because I see a similar situation playing out if the US falls into a recession.

However, if we get a stagflationary episode where rates rise and stay elevated, the mortgage market will stay quiet relative to historical activity (it can't go on forever like this, at one point, things need to move). That's why I like the way this deal was structured to ensure the best risk-adjusted returns.

In other news today, CPP Investments committed C$297 million to a follow-on investment in India's National Highways Infra Trust:

Mumbai, INDIA (March 19, 2024) – Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) today announced a follow-on investment of INR 18.2 billion (C$297 million) in the units of National Highways Infra Trust (NHIT, also known as NHAI InvIT), an infrastructure investment trust (InvIT) sponsored by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI).

The investment is part of NHIT’s capital raise by way of an institutional placement. The proceeds will be used to acquire seven brownfield toll roads, currently owned by NHAI, as part of Government of India’s National Monetisation Pipeline.

Following this investment, CPP Investments will continue to hold 25% of the units in NHIT. CPP Investments’ total investment in NHIT will increase to INR 36.8 billion (C$614 million).

“India remains a key market for CPP Investments and infrastructure is vital to the country’s economic growth. Our follow-on investment in NHIT deepens our commitment to this highly scalable platform, which has an important role to play in the continued expansion of the Indian road network,” said James Bryce, Managing Director, Head of Infrastructure, CPP Investments. “We are confident that this investment will continue to deliver high-quality infrastructure across India while generating strong risk-adjusted returns for the CPP Fund.”

The newly acquired toll roads will increase the size of NHIT’s portfolio from eight to 15 toll roads – all of which have been acquired from NHAI, a statutory authority set up in 1988 by an act of the Indian Parliament and responsible for developing, maintaining and managing national highways in India. Following the completion of this transaction, NHIT’s total portfolio will span over 1,500 kilometers across nine Indian states: Assam, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and West Bengal.

James Bryce, Managing Director, Head of Infrastructure, CPP Investments explains the rationale behind this follow-on investment:

India remains a key market for CPP Investments and infrastructure is vital to the country’s economic growth. Our follow-on investment in NHIT deepens our commitment to this highly scalable platform, which has an important role to play in the continued expansion of the Indian road network. We are confident that this investment will continue to deliver high-quality infrastructure across India while generating strong risk-adjusted returns for the CPP Fund.”

James is in Berlin this week with other major infrastructure investors to participate at a big conference that takes place there. His former colleague Michael Hill who now runs OMERS Infrastructure also attended this conference.

Lastly, some more good news for CPP Investments and its contributors and beneficiaries.

Earlier today, I learned AstraZeneca will acquire Fusion Pharmaceuticals (FUSN) for $2 billion upfront and the biotech stock doubled:

Among the major institutional holders, Federated Hermes, Deerfield, Fidelity, Perceptive Advisors, Orbimed and CPP Investments which owns 4.3% of the shares.

Being an avid biotech trader who literally tracks 30-50 biotechs every day, I just had to throw that in there (sadly I didn't have this in my portfolio today even though I was looking at it yesterday).

So, the next time someone tells you pension funds shouldn't invest in biotech shares, just remember this post and tell them I say "rubbish".

Below, US housing market is long overdue to catch a break as experts believe peaking mortgage rates have come just in time alongside Fed forecasts planning for interest rate cuts in 2024. Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather tells Yahoo Finance this could be a set up for a slow recovery for homebuyers. 

"It's going to be more of a slow trickle of people deciding that 'you know, I can't wait any longer and I want to move,'" Fairweather comments, "but a strong economy does mean that more people are moving for job opportunities — they feel more confident, they feel like even though rates are high, they can make it work for their budget." Fairweather also comments on the rise in "nepo-homebuyers" as more Americans receive assistance from family in order to purchase a home.

Ivanhoé Cambridge CEO Nathalie Palladitcheff's Last Assessment

Pension Pulse -

Jean-Philippe Décarie of La Presse interviewed Ivanhoé Cambridge's outgoing CEO Nathalie Palladitcheff, offering a final assessment before she focuses on new challenges (translated from French):

Nathalie Palladitcheff has completed the transformation process of Ivanhoé Cambridge that she began four years ago when she was appointed CEO of the real estate division of the Caisse de dépôt, and next month she will complete her integration into current activities of the institution before leaving his position to take on new challenges.

Before leaving her position for good, Nathalie Palladitcheff wanted to take a final look at the nine years she spent at Ivanhoé Cambridge, including the last four as CEO.

In her new role, she was called upon to carry out a major transformation of the real estate asset portfolio of this division which will be integrated into the Caisse's current activities at the end of April.

“I wanted to give one last interview and meet the business community [Monday noon at the Canadian Club of Montreal] to finish things off, to explain what we have achieved in four years. I owe it to our teams, to the Caisse, to Quebecers…

“When Michael Sabia appointed me in October 2019 and Charles Emond confirmed me in my role in January 2020, they gave me the mandate to transform Ivanhoé Cambridge, that’s what we did,” explains the outgoing CEO.

As we know, the Caisse's real estate division was overexposed to the shopping center and office building sectors, well before the pandemic broke out, taken with a legacy from the late 1980s when the Caisse bought Ivanhoe Cambridge of the Steinberg family empire.

When Nathalie Palladitcheff became CEO in 2019, Ivanhoé Cambridge had generated returns below its benchmark over five and ten-year periods. In 2023, the real estate division still showed a return lower than its index over the last five years.

“But we managed to beat the index over the last three years, we will soon surpass it over five years,” the CEO told me.

Since 2020, Ivanhoé Cambridge teams have carried out no less than 300 transactions totaling 50 billion. The weight of shopping centers in total real estate assets fell from 23% to 11%, the same goes for office buildings.

“We halved our exposure to shopping centers and office buildings and doubled our exposure to the logistics and residential sectors, two sectors in strong growth. Despite the pandemic, we decided to accelerate our transformation despite a certain drop in value,” explains the CEO.

At the end of all this activity and despite a negative return of 6.2% on the Caisse's real estate portfolio in 2023 (better than the -10% of the benchmark index...), Ivanhoé Cambridge increased the net worth by 5 billion of its assets, which increased from 40 billion in 2019 to 45.6 billion in 2023.

After the transformation, integration

In addition to the sale of numerous shopping centers, Ivanhoé Cambridge is engaged in the transformation of some of them in Canada by recycling former commercial spaces into logistics centers or residential complexes, as it has undertaken to do in its Galeries d’Anjou project.

“We want to make them multi-use assets with transport, residential and businesses and thus reduce the carbon footprint of these sites,” underlines the CEO.

Could Nathalie Palladitcheff have continued her involvement at the Caisse de dépôt once the new real estate portfolio had been integrated into the institution's current activities?

“I had the mandate to transform the portfolio and it’s time to hand over the baton. I will stay until the end of the process to ensure the integration of the teams within the Caisse de dépôt and support those who will have to leave.”

“We will become more efficient by grouping human resources, communications and information technology activities within a single entity,” she observes.

Already when she joined Ivanhoé Cambridge as Chief Financial Officer in 2015, the real estate group had 1,500 employees. This number has been reduced to 490 today and will be reduced further once the integration is complete.

“We left the real estate operation to concentrate on our role as an investor. In 2021, we subcontracted our 330 employees who operated shopping centers in Canada to the American group JLL. I checked recently and our 330 ex-employees are all still working,” underlines the CEO.

Even if she leaves office in a month, there is no question for Nathalie Palladitcheff of reducing the pace and taking advantage of a moment of respite. She wishes to leverage the vision she developed during the various organizational transformation experiences she has had during her professional life.

Could her transformational experience at Ivanhoé Cambridge be used to reorganize the Quebec health system by taking the helm of Santé Québec, where all the rumors seem to be leading her?

“I am focused on the mandate that I am completing and I want to support our teams until the end, but I do not intend to retire afterwards. I feel like continuing to contribute to the society that has welcomed my family and me so well,” the CEO responds very openly.

With all due respect, Nathalie Palladitcheff is a real estate expert, not a health expert, and even though she knows Quebec's health minister Christian Dubé who previously worked at CDPQ, I don't think she's the most qualified person for this new and important position (great leader but stick to what you know, real estate, and between you and me, she'd be nuts to accept this position which pays a lot less than what she can earn elsewhere and will be heavily scrutinized by everyone in Quebec. Having said this, to be fair, she is a great leader and has tremendous experience and our healthcare system needs someone competent to fix it).

Anyway, back to the interview. As you all know, the integration of CDPQ's real estate divisions is still going on, and the process isn't easy because some employees on both sides will lose their job as they streamline activities to finalize the integration.

Once completed, CDPQ expects to generate annual savings of around $100 million through the synergies achieved in its processes, resources and systems.

But don't forget, in the short run, you need to pay severance packages to a lot of employees, most of whom are losing their job through no fault of their own. 

Still, this integration of real estate subsidiaries needs to get done and it makes sense for a pack of reasons. It should have been done a while ago but nobody had the courage to do so (when times are good, everyone stays hush and spends like crazy).

Now, as far as what Nathalie Palladitcheff and her team achieved at Ivanhoé Cambridge, it was a radical shift, getting out of underperforming retail and offices and into logistics assets and multifamily properties all over the world.

Some pension experts told me that Ivanhoé Cambridge was so desperate to get rid of retail assets that they "practically gave them away" to REITs with extremely favorable terms.

I cannot substantiate these claims but it's fair to say they didn't get top dollar for these assets and that's fine, the focus was on dumping them quickly to buy better assets that will outperform over the long run.

It's the same thing when I'm trading stocks, get rid of my losers fast especially when I see better opportunities elsewhere except here we are talking about a multi-billion dollar real estate portfolio, not exactly liquid and not easy to reposition it on a dime.

When I went over CDPQ's 2023 results, I noted this on real estate:

CDPQ's 2023 results were solid and in line with what I was expecting.

Let's begin with Real Estate since that is where everyone seems to be focusing on as there are issues there.

From the Bloomberg article:

Nathalie Palladitcheff, the head of Ivanhoe Cambridge, CDPQ’s real estate arm, described last year’s environment as “hostile.” High interest rates and low occupancy have created a difficult outlook for office owners and their lenders, with more than $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans set to mature by the end of next year.

“The increase in rates impacts both the valuation and the cost of debt, and this resulted in a very significant drop in transactional volumes on a global scale,” Palladitcheff said, referring to the broader real estate market. “They have been halved in Europe, halved in the United States, even an 80 per cent drop in transactions in Germany, for example.

Ms. Palladitcheff has done wonders repositioning that portfolio, diversifying out of retail into logistics and multifamily but offices remain a problem.

Also, as she correctly points out, the increase in rates impacts both the valuation and the cost of debt, and this resulted in a very significant drop in transactional volumes on a global scale.

Given the global backdrop in real estate and the lagged performance relative to publicly-traded REITs, I wasn't surprised Real Estate recorded a -6.2% return for one year, above its index (-10%).

This has nothing to do with Nathalie Palladitcheff and her team at Ivanhoe Cambridge, all of Canada's major pension funds are going to post losses in their respective real estate portfolios in 2023 and I'll be calling out anyone who doesn't mark down assets.

The good news, or somewhat good news, it wasn't as bad as I feared.

Recall my recent post on what Norway's 2023 Fund results mean for Canadian pensions where I noted:

Total real estate investments returned -2.0 percent for the first half and amounted to 3.9 percent of the  fund at the end of the period. Unlisted and listed real estate investments are managed under a combined strategy for real estate.

Unlisted real estate investments made up 58.4 percent of the overall real estate portfolio and returned -4.6 percent, while investments in listed real estate returned 1.7 percent. 

The main driver behind the negative return on unlisted real estate was the office sector, with US investments in particular falling sharply in value during the period. This was due mainly to increased vacancy, which means reduced income for investors. The return on the listed portfolio was also affected by the negative performance in the US office sector.

Why is this important?

Because as at the end of June, unlisted real estate was down 2% and at year-end, it was down 12%.

That tells me the Fund's appraisers significantly marked down unlisted real estate assets in the second half of the year as it became evident office vacancies weren't getting better and other sectors also faced challenges as rates hit financing (multifamily).

Importantly, if Norway's Fund is posting -12% in unlisted real estate, it doesn't portend well for the unlisted real estate portfolio at Canada's large pension funds (to be fair, I suspect Norway's Fund has a bit more exposure to offices but can't confirm this).

There were dramatic markdowns of unlisted real estate assets in the second half of the year and this is worth noting as Canada's large pension funds prepare to report their results.

I've already told people last week when I covered why CDPQ is integrating its real estate subsidiaries that I expect a challenging time in real estate as assets were marked down to reflect the clobbering publicly traded REITs took in 2022.

Why was Norway's unlisted real estate portfolio down 12% whereas CDPQ's real estate portfolio was down half that amount last year?

The answer is simple, Norway's unlisted real estate portfolio is made up almost exclusively of office properties which got hit hard last year (they are diversifying their unlisted real estate portfolio by sector and geography but given their enormous size, it takes time).

So, this just proves the repositioning that Nathalie Palladitcheff and her team have accomplished at Ivanhoe Cambridge is working and that's why they're beating their benchmark, adding $5.5 billion in value added over their benchmark.

As far as CDPQ integrating its real estate subsidiaries, I posted a comprehensive post with my thoughts here.

Pretty much every Canadian pension fund I covered so far posted negative returns in real estate and that doesn't surprise me one bit because interest rates rose and there were some serious writedowns in some assets.

What did surprise me is weakness in real estate was across the board, including logistics and multifamily which have been on fire over the last five+ years.

It's fair to conclude real estate is an asset class with strong challenges in some sectors but also great opportunities as this new normal works itself out.

Lone Star's John Grayken once noted in real estate, there's always value as investors own the land and he's right. 

Another real estate titan, Blackstone's Jon Gray, recently noted they see value in real estate as the Fed begins lowering rates.

I'm not sure if the Fed is going to lower rates as much as the market expects unless all hell breaks loose in markets and it panics and slashes rates.

The biggest worry right now for many large investors I speak with is what happens if inflation expectations pick up and we enter a stagflationary period like the 70s.

That will not bode well for bonds, real estate, infrastructure and private equity.

Anyway, maybe I will try squeezing one last interview with Nathalie Palladitcheff as I did enjoy our discussions in the past.

Apart from repositioning that massive real estate portfolio, Ivanhoé Cambridge was also a leader in sustainable investing and did wonders on that front. More than anything, that is her lasting legacy at CDPQ and they should all be proud of that work which continues.

Below, the LeFrak Organization CEO Richard LeFrak joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the commercial real estate market, the stressors facing the sector, and more.

Next, Gil Borok, Colliers US CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the health of commercial real estate investments in 2024, office real estate since the Covid-19 pandemic, and more.

Third, Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the looming commercial real estate crisis, impact on the Fed's rate path outlook, and more.

Fourth, Bill Rudin, Rudin Management CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the Federal Reserve should be worried about commercial real estate, his outlook for the real estate sector, and more.

Lastly, Jonathan Gray, Blackstone president and COO, talks about where opportunities are in the real estate sector, the impact of interest rates, managing risk and the environment for fundraising. He speaks to Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua in Rome, where he is attending the Bank of America Global Investor Summit conference. 

No doubt in my mind, Blackstone and others will be busy refinancing properties and picking up distressed loans and properties as opportunities arise. The problem again is navigating the unknowable, especially if a stagflationary environment sets in.

Don't Meddle with Canada’s Pension-Plan Model

Pension Pulse -

Earlier this week, seven former pension heavyweights came together to write an op-ed for the Globe and Mail pleading governments here not to meddle with Canada’s pension-plan model:

What is the purpose of a pension plan?

That’s a strange question to ask in this country, where we have spent nearly three decades building a Canadian pension model that is respected and coveted around the world.

Yet, more than 90 Canadian business executives recently signed an open letter calling for governments to make re-evaluating that pension model “a national priority,” with a focus on introducing unclear mandates not related to financial returns.

So, we must start at the beginning. Put simply, the purpose of a pension plan is to help secure the financial future for Canadian workers by delivering promised pension benefits at a reasonable cost.

Those benefits come from two sources. First, hard-working Canadians and their employers spend decades contributing to pension plans with the promise of financial security in retirement. The second, and far larger piece, comes as pension plans help keep that promise by generating required investment returns. Approximately 80 per cent of the pension payments made to retirees flow from investment returns.

And that’s where the simplicity ends. Investing for generations is a challenge that requires navigating uncertain markets and operational complexity. Any added constraints imposed, including such new suggested requirements, only exacerbate these challenges. Portfolios become less efficient, risks increase, investment returns are threatened, and future pensions are put at risk.

Right now, Canada leads the world in pension investing. Despite being only the 38th-largest country by population, Canada has the third-largest share of pension wealth. Among the reasons for that success is the pursuit of investment returns and an absence of political interference.

Our pension plans’ governance models also afford them clear mandates and board directors who uphold leading governance practices. This commercial focus is a compelling advantage. And, consequently, we have very well-funded pension plans.

We can see how extraordinary this result is by looking at other jurisdictions. South of the border, many pension plans and state pension systems are underfunded. In fact, cities have declared bankruptcy because their pension plans were in crisis, thus depriving their workers of their retirement savings.

Moreover, the most direct U.S. equivalent of the Canada Pension Plan, social security, is on a path to financial difficulty within a decade. Meanwhile, the CPP and other Canadian plans are well-funded.

It’s easy to forget that Canada once faced similar struggles. In the 1990s, growing concerns about the solvency of our plans gave way to a series of reforms and the “Canadian model” of pension investing was born.

This solution did not come at the expense of Canadian economic growth and development. On the contrary, by reducing pension expenses and long-term costs of providing retirement security, we contributed to Canadian competitiveness.

All our well-known Maple funds invest heavily in Canada – at least 10 per cent of their portfolios are invested here, with several closer to 30 per cent or even more. They are already entwined in support for the Canadian economy, not only as owners of publicly traded stocks, but also of real estate, infrastructure and private businesses. They fund corporate and government debt across the country.

More compelling opportunities at home would be welcome, should the business climate, policy certainty, taxes and other investment factors strike the right balance of risk and return.

Yet, the Maple funds don’t put all their eggs in one basket. Seeking diversified assets globally helps protect members from the demographic and economic factors that affect the financial sustainability of their plans. Changes to Canadian population age, employment, immigration and earnings growth all contribute risks that can be mitigated by investing in different economies.

Focusing too much on Canada, to the exclusion of other compelling investment opportunities, would be a step backward. It would jeopardize the sustainability of our pension plans and cost plan members in uncaptured growth and lost access to unique industries or currency advantages available elsewhere. For example, the average annual return for the S&P 500 over the past ten years has been about 14 per cent, while the TSX 60 has returned about 7 per cent, in Canadian dollar terms.

The Canadian pension model already requires investment income earned abroad to flow back to Canada in the form of benefits to plan members. This is the same approach that many individuals seek to replicate with their own RRSPs or TFSAs, with similar benefits. Forcing pension plans to invest more member contributions in Canada is essentially the same as forcing Canadians to invest their personal savings here.

Instead of looking to Canadians’ savings, governments have other tools at their disposal to seek diverse public-policy goals.

Unintended harm is much more likely when policy instruments designed for separate and distinct objectives (e.g., the safety and soundness of pension plans vs. general regional economic development or corporate subsidies) are confounded and implemented without accountability to government for outcomes – good or bad.

Our globally envied, made-in-Canada retirement security system was built by millions of Canadians. It works.

There is no reason to sacrifice this in pursuit of unsubstantiated benefits that would come at a cost to pension-plan members. Canadian pension plans are already serving their purpose

*** 

Robert Bertram is a former chief investment officer of Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.

David Denison is a former chief executive of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

Jim Keohane is a former CEO of Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan.

Claude Lamoureux, Jim Leech and Ron Mock are former CEOs of Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.

Mark Wiseman is a former CEO of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

This is a short and insightful op-ed from experienced pension managers which hits all the right notes and the message is very simple: don't tamper with a successful model which has been proven to work over the long term and will ensure future generations can rely on their pension benefits when they retire.

I cannot overemphasize this point in the comment above:

Unintended harm is much more likely when policy instruments designed for separate and distinct objectives (e.g., the safety and soundness of pension plans vs. general regional economic development or corporate subsidies) are confounded and implemented without accountability to government for outcomes – good or bad.

The older I get, the more cynical I become and appreciate Milton Friedman's message on why governments shouldn't meddle with the economy, most of the time they bungle it up!

Last week, I wrote my own thoughts on why the federal government should leave Canada's pensions alone and focus its attention elsewhere.

I was very explicit and blunt, the federal government should only focus on creating winning conditions to attract foreign and domestic investments. 

And in my opinion, the most important thing it can do is start privatizing infrastructure assets like airports, toll roads, ports and other assets.

Canada's infrastructure is decaying, we desperately need private investments and that will create jobs and help our large pensions pay benefits over the long run.

I'm actually surprised the CEOs of the Maple Eight and other large Canadian pensions aren't getting together demanding this policy shift from the federal and provincial governments.

The situation is dire. Earlier this week, my former colleague Stefane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist at the National Bank, wrote an excellent comment on why Canada's only way out is to attract more private investment.

We have a huge productivity problem in this country and we are not addressing it. Worse still, government policies on immigration, housing and taxation are exacerbating this problem.

The end result? Nobody wants to invest in Canada and without that much needed investment, we risk falling further behind the United States in terms of productivity and this will permanently jeopardize our standard of living.

Canada's mighty pensions can help at the margin, especially if the federal government privatizes assets, but we need a hell of a lot more if we are to rectify this ongoing problem.

The truth is the United States is so far ahead of Canada, Australia, Europe, and even Asia when it comes to productivity gains that it's no wonder the Nasdaq attracts huge global capital flows.

Let me just end it on this note.

A friend of mine in Greece reminded me what a disaster it was when SYRIZA forced Greek pensions to invest more of their assets in the domestic economy.

Is that the course of action Canada wants to follow? 

Let's stop talking nonsense. I have no qualms on transparency, accountability and forcing Canada's large pension funds to disclose more. In fact, I will write a comment on how we can significantly improve the governance at these pensions (yes, there's room for improvement, never mind what you think).

But I cannot sit idly by and watch the federal government make stupid decisions, threatening the Canadian pension model which is working exceptionally well even if it's far from perfect.

That's all from me, had a very busy week covering the results at OTPP, HOOPP and OPTrust and trading US biotech stocks that are volatile and kept me active all week (I should write a book on trading biotechs before I have a heart attack).

Lastly, take the time to read Barbara Shecter's excellent article on why the Liberals' 'dangerous' pursuit of Canada's pension billions keeps falling flat. It is a little long but has further insights on why governments shouldn't meddle with our large pensions.

Below, Canada’s largest pensions have gained a global reputation by investing billions in real assets such as infrastructure and real estate. This has attracted attention back home. Meet the Maple 8.

Update: Sebastien Betermier shared a Globe and Mail op-ed he wrote with Keith Ambachtshteer on why the business of pension funds is to serve beneficiaries – not boost the economy. I note the conclusion which echos my thoughts above:

The question we should ask ourselves is not whether Canadian pension funds invest enough in Canada, but instead how we can make Canadian assets more appealing to investors. Reducing the barriers to investing in Canada will unlock capital not only from our own pension funds but also from a much larger pool of international investors.

Take the time to read their full comment here.

Also, Jim Leech, former president and CEO of Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about why he thinks the open letter calling on Canadian pension funds to invest more at home is counterproductive. He also talks about the incentives needed to get our pension funds to funnel more dollars to Canadian projects.

OPTrust Returns 5.3% in 2023

Pension Pulse -

Benefits Canada reports OPTrust returns 5.3% in 2023, marks 15 consecutive years at 100% funded status:

The OPSEU Pension Trust returned 5.3 per cent for 2023, according to its latest year-end report.

It found, as of Dec. 31, 2023, the plan’s net assets stood at $25 billion, up from $24.64 billion in 2022. It also reported a funded status of 100 per cent, marking 15 consecutive years at a fully funded status.

Public equities (16.6 per cent), credit (12 per cent), private equity (8.7 per cent), multi-strategy investments (seven per cent) and commodities (negative 2.7 per cent) all generated higher returns than in 2022 (up from negative 17.6 per cent, negative 3.5 per cent, 4.8 per cent, negative 1.4 per cent and negative 7.1 per cent, respectively). The report noted the return from equities was attributable to exposure in technology-themed stocks, which recovered from a deep negative return in 2022.

Conversely, returns from infrastructure (2.7 per cent) and real estate (negative 1.9 per cent) decreased from 2022 (21.1 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively).

“Against a backdrop of volatile markets, global conflict and an affordability crisis, stability and security are more important than ever,” said Peter Lindley, president and chief executive officer at the OPTrust, in a press release. “By striving to construct a portfolio that is resilient to a variety of economic environments, we remain focused on the long-term and in a strong position to pay pensions today and decades into the future.”

On Tuesday, OPTrust released its results stating it is fully funded for 15th consecutive year:

OPTrust today released its 2023 Funded Status Report, People. Purpose. Pensions., which details the Plan's financial results and funded status. In 2023, OPTrust remained fully funded for the 15th consecutive year and achieved a net investment return of 5.3 per cent. Over the past 10 years, the Plan's average net investment return is 7.2 per cent.

"At OPTrust, we have a clear purpose – to deliver peace of mind in retirement to our members," said Peter Lindley, President and CEO of OPTrust. "For the 15th consecutive year, OPTrust is fully funded, and the people we serve can continue to rely on a secure, sustainable pension."

For OPTrust members, investment returns account for more than 70 per cent of the benefits they receive in retirement, with more than $1.3 billion in entitlements paid in 2023, benefiting communities across Ontario. OPTrust's Member-Driven Investing (MDI) strategy is designed to deliver the total return needed to keep the Plan sustainable over the long term, without taking excessive risk. OPTrust's average annual net investment return since inception is 7.9 per cent.

"Against a backdrop of volatile markets, global conflict, and an affordability crisis, stability and security are more important than ever,” said Lindley. "By striving to construct a portfolio that is resilient to a variety of economic environments, we remain focused on the long term and in a strong position to pay pensions today and decades into the future."

OPTrust's annual Responsible Investing Report has once again been integrated into the Funded Status Report. In 2023, OPTrust made significant progress implementing its enhanced climate change strategy, including calculating the first Total Portfolio carbon footprint, and announcing an interim portfolio decarbonization target of 30 per cent by 2030 in support of achieving a net-zero portfolio by 2050.

"OPTrust's climate change strategy is designed with one purpose in mind: to protect our pension promise over the long term," said Lindley. “With a recognition of the increasing urgency to act on sustainability issues, we are taking steps today to protect our members' pension security through a transitioning global economy."

In 2023, OPTrust welcomed five additional nonprofit organizations and nearly 1,000 new members to reach a total membership of over 4,200 in OPTrust Select. OPTrust also continued to provide an exceptional service experience to members who rated their service satisfaction as 8.7 out of 10. OPTrust was recognized among the top 10 pension plans for service by CEM Benchmarking Inc.'s global rankings.

OPTrust maintained the discount rate at 3.0 per cent, net of inflation. Additional information about OPTrust's 2023 strategy and results is available in People. Purpose. Pensions. at optrust.com.

ABOUT OPTRUST

With net assets of $25 billion, OPTrust invests and manages one of Canada's largest pension funds and administers the OPSEU Pension Plan (including OPTrust Select), a defined benefit plan with over 111,000 members. OPTrust was established to give plan members and the Government of Ontario an equal voice in the administration of the Plan and the investment of its assets through joint trusteeship. OPTrust is governed by a 10-member Board of Trustees, five of whom are appointed by OPSEU and five by the Government of Ontario.

Please take the time to read OPTrust's 2023 Funded Status Report here.

Earlier today, I discussed this report with CIO James Davis and want to thank him for taking the time to talk to me. I also want to thank Jason White for setting up the call and sending me the material beforehand.

Before I get to my interesting discussion with James, let me go over some items.

First, take the time to read the message from Chair Lindsey Burseze and Vice-Chair Richard Nesbitt:


Next, take a minute to read CEO Peter Lindley's message:


I note the following:

OPTrust’s climate change strategy is designed with one purpose in mind: to protect our pension promise over the long term. In December 2023, we released a one-year update to our enhanced climate change strategy, detailing the progress we have made since 2022 and the goals we have set to strengthen the fund’s resiliency to climate change. Some of the highlights include launching an innovative Climate Metric Framework, calculating our first Total Portfolio carbon footprint, and setting a goal to reduce our carbon footprint by 30 per cent by 2030.

Recognizing environmental, social and governance factors are increasingly important for our members and stakeholders, we moved away from publishing a standalone annual Responsible Investing Report last year and integrated that content within our 2022 Funded Status Report. We are taking that same approach this year to ensure members and stakeholders can easily view our responsible investing activities and better understand how we are incorporating these considerations into our investments.

Personally, I prefer this approach than issuing the Responsible Investing Report at a different time, just issue it at the same time with your annual results but I would have liked a video presentation on this going over highlights (I should consult pensions on how to improve transparency and communications).

In terms of the Plan's funding, I note the following:

Under OPTrust Select, on an annual basis at the discretion of the Board, pensions that are being paid may be granted COLA, and active members may be granted accrued benefit upgrades to adjust for inflation.

The investment environment is more uncertain than normal due to monetary policy tightening,  geopolitical risk events, and changes in fiscal policy impacting economic growth and asset pricing in unpredictable ways which can put pressure on the Plan’s funded status.

The demographics of the Plan are challenging because the proportion of inactive members relative to active contributing members remains high. This situation means funding risk is borne by a smaller group of contributing members, which constrains the amount of investment risk the Plan can bear.

There are several methods to help maintain the funded status: our Member-Driven Investing (MDI) strategy, the risk tolerance specified in our Risk Appetite Statement and our funding tools. As Plan challenges continue, the tools at our disposal are applied differently over time. This includes the way we use risk within the MDI strategy. Plan sustainability is directly influenced by how we manage challenges and the amount of risk we are willing to assume. For instance, the discount rate includes a margin to protect the Plan from future adverse events. The margin in our discount rate remains strong at the end of 2023. Yield levels remain higher than during the pandemic, which has reduced the downward pressure on the discount rate used to value the Plan’s obligations.

We try to foresee upcoming challenges that could potentially affect the Plan’s sustainability. We perform projections under varying economic environments, such as high inflation and low economic growth, or market collapses and rebounds, to help prepare for outcomes that may affect the level of future contributions and/or benefits.

I would also recommend you read the 2023 Responsible Investing Report embedded in the Funded Status Report and I note the following on climate strategy which I discussed briefly with James:

Lastly, it is worth noting that OPTrust invests primarily in Canada (35%) and the United States (46%):

And like Maple Eight larger peers, the bulk of the investments (71%) are managed internally to make sure they keep costs low:

Alright, those are the preliminaries, let me get to my discussion with James.

Discussion With OPTrust CIO James Davis

Earlier this afternoon, I had a chance to discuss OPTrust's 2023 Funded Status Report with CIO James Davis.

James is a supper nice guy, a veteran who used to work in Barb Zvan's portfolio construction team at OTPP before joining OPTrust as CIO.

He knows Michael Wissell well and like Michael, he's very sharp and an independent thinker.

I began by asking him to give me an overview of OPTrust's results last year:

Sure, the first thing I would tell you and you know this, our main benchmark, our north star, the one thing we focus most on is our funded status and we remain fully funded for 15 years in a row.

At the end of 2015, we put in place a new member driven investment strategy which is very focused on the funded status. We only take the risk we need to take to pay pensions, we are not looking to make outsized returns by taking unnecessary risks.

So that necessitates relatively strong bond exposure because we want to hedge some of these liabilities.

Our strategy in terms of value creation is focused more on private markets than it is on public markets. That's somewhat uncharacteristic of the Canadian Model as many of our peers have more public equity exposure than we do. 

James told me total equities -- public and private -- made up 30% of the portfolio and their private equity exposure has increased through their MDI strategy over the last number of years (in 2015, they had a public equity allocation of roughly 30%, now it's 10-11% and the rest is PE).

He added:

What this means is in a year like 2023 when public equities are doing very well, we are not going to have a strong return, but over the long run our value creation in private equity will work in our favor. So over the long term, we prefer to have more in private markets like infrastructure, real estate and private equity.

I noted that right now, OPTrust and Teachers' have the lowest allocation to public equities (10%) and that is done purposely to mitigate downside risks (but you also miss upside risk like in 2023).

James also told me the approach in PE is still mid-market and they do not have venture in private equity noting this however:

We do have a very small sleeve where we pursue smaller opportunities where we think there may be growth potential. If you look at our portfolio, you'll see something called "other" and we had quite a significant positive rate-of-return in 2023 but it's a very small allocation. There we will look at smaller opportunities that are venture or something in the climate space like climate tech or financial innovation. More recently, we did a very small deal in AI so we can learn more about that space.

So returns there are volatile, they were solid last year but the goal there is to gain exposure into things we otherwise wouldn't gain exposure to.

Our private equity portfolio is more conventional. It is mid-market and we do try to invest in sectors that are less economically sensitive and that has served us well over time. Sandra (Bosela) has done an amazing job and our longer term performance in private equity is quite spectacular. Looking at the 4-year period, PE has delivered over 18% annualized, so it's been a great contributor o the overall portfolio. 

Infrastructure has been another great asset class, not as strong in 2023 because interest rates have gone higher, so the cost of capital has gone up and that asset class is not immune to that. So the strong performance we had in infrastructure over a 4-year period is over 13%. In 2023, it was 2.7% but if you look at 2021, our infrastructure portfolio delivered 33%.

So we know looking at any single year return of any asset class is meaningless, we focus on the longer term but the value creation opportunities in private equity, infrastructure and real estate are quite phenomenal.

I'll comment briefly on real estate because there we had a negative rate-of-return, -1.9%, but if you look at it over a 4-year period, it's 7.8%. And since inception in 2004, returns close to 9% per annum.

Here I interjected noting the -1.9% in real estate last year is actually quite good relative to the larger peers which lost 6-8% in that asset class last year. I asked James is that due to sector diversification and he replied:

The strategy for us is we try to stay in strong geographies where there are strong growth and income opportunities. The other thing we have done -- and this is quite deliberate over the past several years, going back pre-Covid -- is to reduce our exposure to office and retail and grow our exposure into multi-residential and industrial. We have about a half of market weight in the office sector but where are office buildings are, we are focusing on class A office buildings . 

We also have a significant exposure to development real estate, that's an important part of our strategy. The cities we focus on -- Toronto, Vancouver, Seattle, San Jose and other areas in the West Coast US. We have exposure to other areas of Canada, of course, limited exposure to Europe. We are focused on big cities where there are high growth opportunities, focusing on high quality buildings.

Where there are challenges and you probably heard this from some of our peers is inflation is something you can hit with real estate but you have to think of that in the long run. In the short run, it can be very problematic not only because it pushes interest rates higher which pushes cap rates higher but also on the development side of real estate, it costs you more to build a building because price of materials go up, the price of labor (wages) goes up, so that makes it more problematic.

And of course when you have an asset class that is in distress, it starts to snowball. So the one thing I can tell you is we have been actively refinancing properties. We did 15 mortgage renewals in this past year and all have been successful. We have more to do but we have not had any problems because the majority of our properties are in Canada, and we've got great relationships with those institutions that are financing us. That has made financing a lot easier for us but I know for some others, it hasn't been as smooth, financing has been more problematic.

I then shifted my attention to private debt and asked James if they have a sleeve there. He replied:

Good question, we do not have an allocation to private debt. The way I structured our portfolio, I want the deal teams in private markets to vet and invest across the capital stack. So about 18% of our real estate exposure is in real estate debt. We do have some exposure there and the team feels there are good opportunities in that space now.

But we don't have a core allocation to private credit like some of our peers do

We do have some exposure in our Credit sleeve which primarily all passive but we don't have an allocation to private debt and I would prefer the deal teams to do it on an opportunistic basis.

I mentioned that while Michael Wissell remains somewhat constructive on private debt, Jo Taylor thinks we are at the mid to end stage of the cycle and returns gong forward will not be as good in private debt and credit in general.

James told me "when everyone is talking about a new asset class -- and I've seen this in quite a few conferences where everyone is talking about private credit -- that's generally the time to start to worry."

I told him I completely agree and remember back in 2005, I attended a commodities conference in London where brokers from Goldman and Barclays were trying to persuade me that PSP should invest in commodities, and I ended up making the opposite recommendation thinking we were close to the top (we were).

We then discussed fixed income where I told him HOOPP CIO Michael Wissell told me they used volatility in bond markets last year to significantly increase their exposure to real return bonds (mostly TIPS). I asked James if they did the same thing:

Short answer is no. Our liabilities are nominal although they are inflation indexed, but the way we do the discount rate, it's a nominal discount rate. So we hold nominal bonds to deal with interest rate sensitivities to plan liabilities but I look at inflation hedging more from my real estate and infrastructure portfolio. We also have a small allocation to comorbidities which is actively managed. We are looking at alternative ways in managing inflation exposure. It's obviously become something which is more front and center in the last few years.

I don't know if it will be problematic in the next few years but there's more potential now than a decade ago.We are looking at different ways to hedge inflation but we are not sure the mismatch between Canadian and US inflation and whether TIPS would be the best way to hedge inflation. We have held TIPS in the past but it's not a core part of our liability hedging portfolio.

That's not to say TIPS won't be part of our inflation hedge going forward, we are looking at this and inflation swaps to mitigate inflation exposure. But what's most important to us is we do this in a cost effective way and keep our eye on the long term. 

What most concerns me about inflation isn't the impact on liabilities but the impact on assets. So, I want to make sure our assets are resilient to an inflationary environment. I do think in the long run, equities, especially private equity, infrastructure and real estate can give us that kind of hedging and also offer us value creation, and that's where I struggle with TIPS, I don't know how to create value with TIPS.

I shifted the discussion to private equity where I noted the cost of financing and higher labor costs have hit margins and the returns of larger peers and asked him if absolute return strategies hedge against inflation. James replied:

Again, we try to look at the portfolio in a holistic way, each sleeve, each line item has a specific purpose. I tend not to look at absolute return strategies as an inflation hedge and the reason is that the risk-free rate has gone up and that concerns me because if I'm looking at the performance of funds of funds, am I collecting a high enough risk premium over cash if the risk free is 5%?

So again, where do I get the best opportunities for value creation, it's in private equity. It's not just about the the asset class itself, it's how you run the businesses, how you select the sectors you want to be in. We do look for businesses where there are opportunities to pass through costs and recoup them in revenues so we get less margin compression. We found over the years the services sector tends to be the area we are most comfortable in and tends to have those characteristics, more than the manufacturing sector.

So if you look at our private equity portfolio, we are more focused on services than industrial or manufacturing. That has more of an inflation hedging characteristics.

But even public equities over the long run are a good long term hedge against inflation.

When I look at the portfolio over the long run, I think we are resilient. Our overall MDI strategy is all about resilience, it's about being able to weather any macroeconomic environment. The most challenging one is a stagflationary one and that's what has been scary over the last few years, it felt stagflationary. Hopefully that's behind us but it's a bit early to draw conclusions.

Indeed, a sustained stagflationary environment like in the 70s, early 80s is the worst outcome for pensions but so is a severe and prolonged deflationary shock (think a decade of Covid). 

The one good thing now is central banks have raised rates significantly and they are much more measured in cutting them, fearing a reemergence of inflation.

James noted there's a lot of room to cut rates now which is a good thing because rates are high, "so if we do see an economic slowdown and inflation isn't a problem, they have the ammunition to significantly reduce the cost of capital."

Lastly, James noted on their climate strategy, they have done significant work to measure emissions across public and private assets. He said they're really trying to understand the risks and opportunities of climate change and they put in place metrics to measure carbon exposure, working with their investment partners and portfolios companies to try to get more insight in private markets where they have a high exposure.

They are holding their private companies and partners to account and helping them understand their exposure to carbon and it's a work in progress but they are closer to achieving their interim goal of reducing their exposure by 30% by 2030.

They are also doing climate scenario analysis to measure the risks to their portfolio but at the end of the day, it's all about ensuring the Plan remains sustainable.

Finally, James wanted to give a shout-out to his "amazing team" and he's very proud of the leadership and culture which maintains and enhances the focus on a total portfolio approach which is instrumental to their MDI strategy. 

Alright, these comments take forever to write, I need to figure out ways to upload my interviews on YouTube and save me a ton of time but writing them out helps me appreciate the nuances and different approaches at Canada's venerable pension plans and funds.

Also, as I customarily do, here is the executive compensation at OPTrust but private market officials are not there (they should be!!):

Below, former US Treasury Secretary and Liberty Strategic Capital founder and managing partner Steven Mnuchin joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest developments around a potential TikTok ban, why he's putting together a group to buy the social media app, whether he believes the app poses a national security risk, his thoughts on entitlements, state of the US economy, and more.

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