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Here's What's In Biden's 'Reckless' $7.3 Trillion Budget, And Here's How He'll 'Pay' For It

Here's What's In Biden's 'Reckless' $7.3 Trillion Budget, And Here's How He'll 'Pay' For It

The Biden administration has released a proposed budget that would boost federal spending to $7.3 trillion next fiscal year. To pay for it, they plan to raise taxes on the wealthy and large corporations.

And while there's virtually no chance of it passing given the current makeup of Congress (WSJ calls it 'largely symbolic'), it will give Biden a steady supply of talking points to read off teleprompters across the land during his re-election campaign.

According to the White House, the 2025 budget would cut the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade, and raise taxes by a net of $4.9 trillion - a boost of roughly 7% in collections without any policy changes, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Other features of the proposed budget include:

  • A boost in defense spending to $895 billion, up from $886 billion.
  • Congressional approval for roughly $1.6 trillion in discretionary spending - slightly lower than the current year's budget.
  • This will be offset by $1.6 trillion in spending caps which were agreed to last year by House Republicans and the Biden administration, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
  • Medicare taxes and drug pricing are also included, with tax increases on people earning more than $400,000 per year (which we all know is total bullshit). The plan will also significantly expand the number of drugs subject to government price negotiation, to 50 per year, up from 20, and it would extend a $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket prescription drugs under Medicare.
  • Immigration and international aid: The Department of Homeland Security would receive an additional $8.7 billion under the proposal - much of which would plug a budget hole created by the 'unexpected' surge in migrants last year. $2.9 billion of it would fund longer term investments, including hiring more Border Patrol agents and asylum officers.
  • Ukraine: Of course, the budget proposal also reiterates Biden's supplemental request for $60 billion in emergency aid for his favorite country.

Other items of note: the budget calls for shoring up Social Security but does not specify a plan. It also calls for extending Trump-era tax cuts for most households after they expire in 2025, but does not detail how they should be paid for. It also calls on restoring the expanded child tax credit on a temporary basis.

Under his plan, families making less than $200,000 a year would be guaranteed subsidized child care, with the lowest income families paying nothing. The president proposed building or preserving more than two million housing units, and a series of tax credits to ease the high cost of purchasing a home. He calls for spending $12 billion to come up with strategies to reduce the cost of college, while expanding Pell Grants and offering tuition-free community college. And he again outlined a federal paid family and medical leave program. -WSJ

According to White House spox Olivia Dalton, the budget "invests in all of America to make sure everyone has a fair shot, we leave no one behind," adding that congressional Republicans "have made their values clear in the meantime; they have repeatedly fought to slash critical programs that the American people rely on."

House Republican leaders, meanwhile, said in a statement that "the price tag of President Biden’s proposed budget is yet another glaring reminder of this administration’s insatiable appetite for reckless spending and the Democrats’ disregard for fiscal responsibility."

The budget proposal comes less than eight months before Election Day and amid polls that show Trump with a narrow lead over Biden. As he shifts his focus to the general election, the president is expected to increasingly seek to draw a contrast with his presumed opponent, casting Trump as out of touch with voters’ priorities and a danger to democracy. Trump, in turn, has railed against the president, targeting his spending on issues such as clean energy.  -WSJ

According to Shalanda Young, director of the Office of Management and Budget, Americans are "going to have a robust tax debate at the end of 2025."

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 18:40

China Planted Mystery Devices On Cranes Used In US Ports, Could Seize Control Remotely: Congressional Letter

China Planted Mystery Devices On Cranes Used In US Ports, Could Seize Control Remotely: Congressional Letter

Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Top Republicans from multiple House committees are sounding the alarm on a series of mysterious devices that appear to have been implanted into container cranes used throughout the U.S. port system by China.

A large ship-to-shore crane is used to unload cargo containers from a ship at the international cargo terminal in the Port of Tokyo on Nov. 16, 2023. (Kazuhiro Nogi/ AFP via Getty Images)

The lawmakers say that numerous modems with no known function were uncovered from ship-to-shore (STS) cranes, which are used to unload cargo at the nation’s largest ports.

All of the cranes in question were manufactured by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (ZPMC), a subsidiary of the state-owned China Communications Construction Co.

Relatedly, the lawmakers noted that ZPMC’s manufacturing facility is located adjacent to China’s most advanced ship-making facility, where the regime builds its aircraft carriers and houses advanced intelligence capabilities.

In a letter (pdf) addressed to the president and chairman of ZPMC, the lawmakers demand to know the purpose of the cellular modems discovered on crane components and in a U.S. seaport’s server room that houses firewall and networking equipment.

These components do not contribute to the operation of the STS cranes or maritime infrastructure and are not part of any existing contract between ZPMC and the receiving U.S. maritime port,” the letter said.

“The Committees have serious concerns that this proximity to the [Chinese military’s] main shipyard provides malicious CCP [Chinese Communist Party] entities, including its intelligence agencies and security services, with ample opportunity to modify U.S.-bound maritime equipment, exploit it to malfunction, or otherwise facilitate cyber espionage thereby compromising U.S. maritime critical infrastructure.”

U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. John Vann, who leads the Coast Guard’s Cyber Command, told reporters last month that there were over 200 China-manufactured cranes operating across U.S. ports and regulated facilities.

At that time, Coast Guard cyber protection teams had assessed the cybersecurity or hunted for threats on 92 of those cranes, he said.

The discovery comes amid an ongoing congressional investigation into the operation of cranes manufactured in China and operating at U.S. ports.

Though the investigation is still ongoing, the committees identified serious concerns regarding ZPMC’s relationship with the CCP, particularly given the recent discovery of Chinese malware on vital infrastructure related to the port system.

As part of another cybersecurity investigation, some of the modems in question were also found to have active connections to the operational components of the STS cranes, suggesting they could be remotely controlled by a device no one previously knew was there.

Speaking to reporters last month, White House Deputy National Security Adviser Anne Neuberger said the cranes were designed to be serviceable from a remote location, which leaves them open to such exploitation.

By design, these cranes may be controlled, serviced, and programmed from remote locations,” Ms. Neuberger said. “These features potentially leave [China]-manufactured cranes vulnerable to exploitation.

As such, the letter suggests that every U.S. seaport with ZPMC cranes could already be, or is at risk of being, compromised by the CCP.

Retired Army Col. John Mills told The Epoch Times that the cranes were effectively an extension of the CCP’s global cybercrime operation, which could be used during an invasion of Taiwan to sow chaos in the United States.

“Those container cranes are not cranes,” Mr. Mills said. “They’re IP endpoints on a worldwide intelligence collection system.”

To that end, he said that the cranes’ operational and safety features could likely be overridden remotely. This would allow the CCP to potentially trick one of the giant cranes into shifting its counterbalance in such a way that would cause it to crash into ships or containers in the nation’s busiest ports.

Complicating the issue all the more, he said, was the fact that the niche nature of the cargo cranes and their programming means it is unlikely a tailored cyber response to secure the systems will be created anytime soon.

To counter the threat in the long term, he added, the United States would need to ensure that it manufactured such vital equipment in its own territory.

As things play out, they’re [the CCP] going to start initiating the hitting of target sets in cyber. The port cranes are a perfect example,” Mr. Mills said.

“This is the importance of making things here. If you want to reduce the Chinese threat, start making things here.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 18:20

Transgender Golfer Booted After Woman's Pro Tour Adopts 'Biological At Birth' Rules

Transgender Golfer Booted After Woman's Pro Tour Adopts 'Biological At Birth' Rules

“Effective immediately, I have been removed (banned) from the next 3 NXXT tournaments that I already signed up for and been approved to play,” wrote transgender golfer Hailey Davidson last week.

The message came after he/she was removed from the NXXT Women's Pro Tour, who has now announced that participants must be “a biological female at birth” to participate in its events, according to Fox News and the NY Post. 

Davidson expressed his/her discontent because he/she was already crushing the woman's field: “They changed their policy mid season, after me signing up already and being 2nd in Player of the Year race.” 

The tour faced massive backlash after Davidson won a tournament earlier this year that attracted significant media attention. 

NXXT GOLF CEO Stuart McKinnon said: “As we navigate through the evolving landscape of sports, it is crucial to uphold the competitive integrity that is the cornerstone of women’s sports.”

“Our revised policy is a reflection of our unwavering commitment to celebrating and protecting the achievements and opportunities of female athletes. Protected categories are a fundamental aspect of sports at all levels, and it is essential for our Tour to uphold these categories for biological females, ensuring a level playing field.”

Recall, we reported back in January that Davidson had stepped in to win a women's tournament in Florida, bringing with him her "dreams of making it to the LPGA tour".

30 year old Davidson, born a man, won the NXXT Women’s Classic at the Mission Inn Resort and Club near Orlando earlier this year. 

Davidson shot one over 73 and finished the three round tournament +4, which was enough to take the trophy. Davidson was three shots behind an actual woman the next best golfer before forcing a playoff and winning. 

NXXT said at the time: “The Tour’s mission is to prepare the world’s best young women professional golfers for a successful career on the LPGA Tour" and that the tour is focused on "elevating women's golf". 

The Post wrote that Davidson's recent victory placed her first on the NXXT tour leaderboard with a leading score of 1320, 150 points ahead of her closest competitor. Since November, she has secured two top-2 finishes in the league's five tournaments, along with seventh and ninth place results.

And it isn't just bragging rights that Davidson won: he/she was entitled to $1,576.51 in prize money, which adds to her career total which currently stands at $5,801.89 over the course of eight events. 

To qualify for two exemptions to the Epson Tour, Davidson, transitioning from male to female, needed LPGA approval. Discussions began in 2016, but eligibility was granted in 2021 after undergoing Hormone Replacement Therapy for over five years and completing gender reassignment surgery, as indicated in an October 2022 social media post.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 18:00

Fauci Deputy Warned Him Against Vaccine Mandates: Email

Fauci Deputy Warned Him Against Vaccine Mandates: Email

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mandating COVID-19 vaccination was a mistake due to ethical and other concerns, a top government doctor warned Dr. Anthony Fauci after Dr. Fauci promoted mass vaccination.

Coercing or forcing people to take a vaccine can have negative consequences from a biological, sociological, psychological, economical, and ethical standpoint and is not worth the cost even if the vaccine is 100% safe,” Dr. Matthew Memoli, director of the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases clinical studies unit at the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), told Dr. Fauci in an email.

“A more prudent approach that considers these issues would be to focus our efforts on those at high risk of severe disease and death, such as the elderly and obese, and do not push vaccination on the young and healthy any further.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci, ex-director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID. in Washington on Jan. 8, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Employing that strategy would help prevent loss of public trust and political capital, Dr. Memoli said.

The email was sent on July 30, 2021, after Dr. Fauci, director of the NIAID, claimed that communities would be safer if more people received one of the COVID-19 vaccines and that mass vaccination would lead to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We’re on a really good track now to really crush this outbreak, and the more people we get vaccinated, the more assuredness that we’re going to have that we’re going to be able to do that,” Dr. Fauci said on CNN the month prior.

Dr. Memoli, who has studied influenza vaccination for years, disagreed, telling Dr. Fauci that research in the field has indicated yearly shots sometimes drive the evolution of influenza.

Vaccinating people who have not been infected with COVID-19, he said, could potentially impact the evolution of the virus that causes COVID-19 in unexpected ways.

“At best what we are doing with mandated mass vaccination does nothing and the variants emerge evading immunity anyway as they would have without the vaccine,” Dr. Memoli wrote. “At worst it drives evolution of the virus in a way that is different from nature and possibly detrimental, prolonging the pandemic or causing more morbidity and mortality than it should.”

The vaccination strategy was flawed because it relied on a single antigen, introducing immunity that only lasted for a certain period of time, Dr. Memoli said. When the immunity weakened, the virus was given an opportunity to evolve.

Some other experts, including virologist Geert Vanden Bossche, have offered similar views. Others in the scientific community, such as U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientists, say vaccination prevents virus evolution, though the agency has acknowledged it doesn’t have records supporting its position.

Other Messages

Dr. Memoli sent the email to Dr. Fauci and two other top NIAID officials, Drs. Hugh Auchincloss and Clifford Lane. The message was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, though the publication did not publish the message. The Epoch Times obtained the email and 199 other pages of Dr. Memoli’s emails through a Freedom of Information Act request. There were no indications that Dr. Fauci ever responded to Dr. Memoli.

Later in 2021, the NIAID’s parent agency, the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), and all other federal government agencies began requiring COVID-19 vaccination, under direction from President Joe Biden.

In other messages, Dr. Memoli said the mandates were unethical and that he was hopeful legal cases brought against the mandates would ultimately let people “make their own healthcare decisions.”

“I am certainly doing everything in my power to influence that,” he wrote on Nov. 2, 2021, to an unknown recipient. Dr. Memoli also disclosed that both he and his wife had applied for exemptions from the mandates imposed by the NIH and his wife’s employer. While her request had been granted, his had not as of yet, Dr. Memoli said. It’s not clear if it ever was.

According to Dr. Memoli, officials had not gone over the bioethics of the mandates. He wrote to the NIH’s Department of Bioethics, pointing out that the protection from the vaccines waned over time, that the shots can cause serious health issues such as myocarditis, or heart inflammation, and that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread COVID-19 as unvaccinated people.

He cited multiple studies in his emails, including one that found a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in a California health care system despite a high rate of vaccination and another that showed transmission rates were similar among the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

Dr. Memoli said he was “particularly interested in the bioethics of a mandate when the vaccine doesn’t have the ability to stop spread of the disease, which is the purpose of the mandate.”

The message led to Dr. Memoli speaking during an NIH event in December 2021, several weeks after he went public with his concerns about mandating vaccines.

“Vaccine mandates should be rare and considered only with a strong justification,” Dr. Memoli said in the debate. He suggested that the justification was not there for COVID-19 vaccines, given their fleeting effectiveness.

Julie Ledgerwood, another NIAID official who also spoke at the event, said that the vaccines were highly effective and that the side effects that had been detected were not significant. She did acknowledge that vaccinated people needed boosters after a period of time.

The NIH, and many other government agencies, removed their mandates in 2023 with the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency.

A request for comment from Dr. Fauci was not returned. Dr. Memoli told The Epoch Times in an email he was “happy to answer any questions you have” but that he needed clearance from the NIAID’s media office. That office then refused to give clearance.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of health policy at Stanford University, said that Dr. Memoli showed bravery when he warned Dr. Fauci against mandates.

“Those mandates have done more to demolish public trust in public health than any single action by public health officials in my professional career, including diminishing public trust in all vaccines.” Dr. Bhattacharya, a frequent critic of the U.S. response to COVID-19, told The Epoch Times via email. “It was risky for Dr. Memoli to speak publicly since he works at the NIH, and the culture of the NIH punishes those who cross powerful scientific bureaucrats like Dr. Fauci or his former boss, Dr. Francis Collins.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 17:40

Black Missouri Teen Arrested After Footage Shows Her Brutally Beating White Girl Into A Seizure

Black Missouri Teen Arrested After Footage Shows Her Brutally Beating White Girl Into A Seizure

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Police in St Louis, Missouri have arrested a teenage girl after footage emerged of a confrontation showing a savage beating of a student from Hazelwood East High School.

The disturbing video shows the girl repeatedly smashing the other student’s head into the concrete while repeatedly calling her a “bitch,” and then leaving her having a seizure on the ground.

A group of students then began an all out brawl before police were called to the scene close to the school this past Friday.

The girl reportedly suffered a traumatic brain injury and is listed in critical condition in hospital, while the assailant was arrested on assault charges Saturday, taken to the St. Louis County Family Court and held in custody through to Sunday.

Social media content suggests that the victim had been the target of bullying at the school.

James Clark, vice president of public safety and community response at the Urban League, described the incident as “a glimpse into the mentality and the culture of our young people.”

“The social pressure is to be socially dysfunctional,” he told KSDK, adding “Who can be the loudest? Who can be the most disruptive?”

“Bullying and fighting in the community is an issue for which we all need to take ownership and work towards a resolution for the sake of our children,” school officials said in a statement.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 10:45

"Trump Just Sold Out": Bizarre TikTok Flip-Flop Followed Meeting With Hedge Fund Manager Who Has $30 Billion Investment

"Trump Just Sold Out": Bizarre TikTok Flip-Flop Followed Meeting With Hedge Fund Manager Who Has $30 Billion Investment

Donald Trump is now to the left of President Biden when it comes to TikTok - with Biden telling reporters recently that if Congress passes a bipartisan proposal that could ban the Chinese-owned video-sharing app on national security grounds (whether it actually poses a threat or not), "I'll sign it."

The comment came after the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously passed the bipartisan bill that would force the sale of TikTok by ByteDance, or face a ban in the United States. According to Punchbowl News, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise wants it on the floor Wednesday of this week.

Former President Trump, however - despite repeatedly pushing for a TikTok ban or sale when he was President, has done a complete 180 on the company - and now claims that TikTok, the alleged national security risk, should be allowed to continue on because getting rid of it would benefit Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook.

"If you get rid of TikTok, Facebook and Zuckerschmuck will double their business," Trump posted to Truth Social.

He reiterated the comments in a Monday appearance on CNBC.

Earlier in Trump's answer he seemingly blamed 'lobbyists' for Congress's inability to ban TikTok when he was president.

...yet, that appears to be exactly what happened to Trump - who recently met with billionaire fund manager and GOP donor Jeff Yass, who has a stake in TikTok worth more than $30 billion, according to Punchbowl News.

Yass is a big financial backer of the conservative group Club for Growth, which was anti-Trump before recently turning pro-Trump. Yass has given $10 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund — the House GOP-aligned super PAC — this cycle, as well as another $250,000 to a joint leadership fund for Speaker Mike Johnson.

2) Politico reported this weekend that Kellyanne Conway, the former top Trump aide, “is being paid by the conservative Club for Growth to advocate for TikTok.” Conway — who isn’t registered as a TikTok lobbyist — called some members about Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi’s (D-Ill.) TikTok bill before Thursday’s markup, sources close to the issue said. -Punchbowl News

On Sunday, The National Pulse reported that former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway has begun lobbying for TikTok - and is "claiming regulatory ‘guardrails’ would be better, peddling the pro-CCP line to Congress members."

This isn't about whether TikTok is actually a national security threat, or about limiting free speech on a platform (that regularly curates degeneracy to American children). Trump's flip-flop was very clearly due to outside influence.

Meanwhile, potential Trump VP Vivek Ramaswamy also began the 'it's complicated' messaging on TikTok. Hmm...

According to Punchbowl, Trump's TikTok flip-flop, "has caused a big headache inside the House GOP leadership," as Speaker Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise and GOP Conference chair Elise Stefanik (a possible Trump VP pick) are solidly behind the TikTok bill - with Stefanik being a cosponsor.

There have been some efforts by the GOP leadership to have Trump allies — especially in the national security realm — lobby Trump on the bill, which is slated to be voted on Wednesday.

Officially, House Republican leadership isn’t yet whipping the TikTok bill. The legislation is coming to the floor under suspension of the rules, which will require a two-thirds majority for passage. -Punchbowl News

Trump's shift has not gone unnoticed.

Maybe Trump should keep bragging about his 'safe and effective' vaccine while he's at it...

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 10:30

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI And Retail Sales As Fed Enters Blackout Period

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI And Retail Sales As Fed Enters Blackout Period

With 10yr US yields around -10bps lower, and the S&P 500 around +2% higher than where they were just before last month’s higher-than-expected CPI, DB's Jim Reid concludes that "it’s fair to say that markets have shrugged off this upside print alongside the high PPI and core PCE prints that followed." The question now is whether this week we get to do it all over again, but before we preview the US CPI (tomorrow) and PPI (Thursday), the other main US highlights are the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations survey (today), retail sales (Thursday) and UoM consumer sentiment (Friday). There are also 3-, 10- and 30-yr UST auctions today through Wednesday.

Expanding on the main event - tomorrow's CPI print - with gas prices up around 4.1% from January, DB's economists expect headline CPI (+0.41% forecast, consensus +0.4%, vs. +0.31% previously) to grow faster than core (+0.30%, consensus +0.3%, vs. +0.39% previously). This would bring YoY core CPI two-tenths lower to 3.7%, with headline flat at 3.1%. Of some concern would be the three-month annualized rate 'only' ticking down a tenth to 3.9% while the six-month annualised rate would rise a tenth to 3.7%. See our economists preview and post-print webinar registration details here.

For Thursday's PPI, the main interest will be the sub components that feed into core PCE forecasts. One of the more important will be the PPI for portfolio management and investment advice, which tends to follow equity prices with a one-month lag. We've seen a further equity rally since last month so it could be firm again. This remarkably added about 8bps to the January core PCE print despite only being about 1.6% of the basket. Also keep an eye on the PPI for selected health care industries, as this category currently has the highest weight in core PCE.

In Europe, the monthly UK GDP for January on Wednesday and labor market indicators tomorrow come a week before the next BoE meeting. In Asia, we have China's 1-yr MLF rate where DB economists think we will see a 15bps cut. In Japan, the 1st survey results from the important shunto wage negotiations will be released on Friday, which will be key ahead of the BoJ meeting a week tomorrow where speculation mounts that negative rates will end. These are the main highlights but see the full week ahead at the end for all the week's key global events.

here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 11

  • Data: US February NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan February PPI, machine tool orders
  • Central banks: BoE Quarterly Bulletin article on investment
  • Earnings: Oracle
  • Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($56bn)

Tuesday March 12

  • Data: US February CPI, NFIB small business optimism, monthly budget statement, UK January weekly earnings, employment change
  • Central banks: ECB's Holzmann speaks, BoE's Mann speaks
  • Earnings: Porsche
  • Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Wednesday March 13

  • Data: UK January monthly GDP, trade balance, industrial production, index of services, construction output, Italy Q4 unemployment rate quarterly, Eurozone January industrial production
  • Central banks: ECB's Stournaras speaks
  • Earnings: Inditex, Adidas, Dollar Tree, Volkswagen
  • Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds (reopening, $22bn)

Thursday March 14

  • Data: US February retail sales, PPI, January business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK February RICS house price balance, Germany January current account balance, Canada January manufacturing sales
  • Central banks: ECB's Stournaras speaks
  • Earnings: Adobe, RWE, Rheinmetall, Dollar General

Friday March 15

  • Data: US March University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Empire manufacturing index, February industrial production, import price index, export price index, capacity utilization, China February new home prices, Japan January tertiary industry index, Italy January trade balance, retail sales, general government debt, Canada January international securities transactions, February housing starts
  • Central banks: BoE's inflation attitudes survey, China 1-yr MLF rate, ECB's Vujcic speaks

* * *

Fianlly, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and the retail sales and PPI reports on Thursday. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials scheduled this week, reflecting the blackout period in advance of the FOMC meeting on March 19-20.

Monday, March 11

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, March 12

  • 06:00 AM NFIB Small business optimism, February (consensus 90.6, last 89.9)
  • 08:30 AM CPI (mom), February (GS +0.44%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); Core CPI (mom), February (GS +0.32%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); CPI (yoy), February (GS +3.15%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.1%); Core CPI (yoy), February (GS +3.71%, consensus +3.7%, last +3.9%): We estimate a 0.32% increase in February core CPI (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 3.7%. Start-of-year price increases temporarily boosted prices in labor-reliant services categories in January, and with this January effect now behind us, we forecast a return to the previous inflation trend, specifically for medical care, personal care, car repair, and day care services. We also assume a step down in the OER category following outsized volatility in January (we estimate +0.47% for OER and +0.42% for rent, compared to +0.56% and +0.36% in January). We assume small declines in new (-0.3%) and used (-0.4%) car prices, reflecting higher incentives and lower auction prices. On the positive side, we assume a 1.5% rise in airfares and another strong gain in car insurance (+1.6%), based on online price data. We estimate a 0.44% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher energy (+2.4%) and food (+0.15%) prices.

Wednesday, March 13

 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled

Thursday, March 14

  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, February (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.8%, last -0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, February (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.5%); Core retail sales, February (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.4%): We estimate core retail sales rose 0.2% in February (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; mom sa). Our forecast reflects mixed credit card spending data following strength during the holiday season. We estimate a 0.7% rise in headline retail sales, reflecting a rebound in auto sales and higher gasoline prices.
  • 08:30 AM PPI final demand, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, February (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%);
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 9 (GS 210k, consensus 217k, last 217k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 2 (GS 1,915k, last 1,906k)
  • 10:00 AM Business inventories, January (consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%)

Friday, March 15

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, March (consensus -8.0, last -2.4)
  • 08:30 AM Import price index, February (consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%)
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, February (GS +0.5%, consensus flat, last -0.1%); Manufacturing production, February (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.5%); Capacity utilization, February (GS 78.7%, consensus 78.5%, last 78.5%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.3%, as strong oil and gas and mining production outweigh weak natural gas and electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization increased to 78.7%.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March preliminary (GS 77.6, consensus 77.3, last 76.9): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, March Preliminary (GS 3.0%, consensus 2.9%, last 2.9%): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 77.6 in the preliminary March reading. We estimate the report's measure of long-term inflation expectations rose 0.1pp to 3.0%, reflecting higher gasoline prices and the higher-than-expected price data reported in February.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 10:20

Gold Spurred By Fed Pricing Still Below Inflation-Adjusted Peak

Gold Spurred By Fed Pricing Still Below Inflation-Adjusted Peak

Authored by Ven Ram, Bloomberg cross-asset strategist,

Gold is still hovering near a nominal record, but the scope for further gains from here may be limited.

Bullion approached $2,200 an ounce last week, annexing a new record, though stated in real terms, gold is still shy of its previous peak set more than a decade ago. Even at current levels, an investor who bought gold at the end of 2012, when it was trading around $1,675 an ounce, would still be sitting on losses of more than 3% after adjusting for the corrosive effect of inflation on the dollar.

Gold’s recent ebullience stems in no small measure from interest-rate pricing in the US, where traders have revived bets for deeper rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that the Fed isn’t far from the level of confidence need to start loosening policy.

The markets are now pricing some 95 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed this year. A dovish dot plot this month - one I define as staying with the three reductions already indicated - may embolden traders to price in five full rate cuts this year.

That will further engender a bid toward bullion, which will mean that it will eclipse its previous inflation-adjusted record of $2,250.

A hawkish dot plot would temper pricing for rate cuts and sap enthusiasm toward bullion, spurring a correction that may be well due in the short term.

Over the longer term, as the Fed actually starts cutting rates, bullion has potential, given that declining rates would enhance the allure of a non-yielding asset and its promise of high risk-adjusted return.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 08:35

Futures Drop As Nvidia Extends Slide, Japan Stocks Tumble, Bitcoin Hits $72,000

Futures Drop As Nvidia Extends Slide, Japan Stocks Tumble, Bitcoin Hits $72,000

US equity futures are poised to open lower on Monday, extending Friday's slide into this data-heavy week after pulling back from all-time highs at the end of last week, with technology shares leading declines in the wake of data giving mixed signals about the strength of the job market. Ahead of tomorrow's CPI print, S&P futures were down 0.2% at 7:50am, but off the worst levels of the session.

Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% with Nvidia fluctuating wildly in the pre-market after its huge 10% intraday reversal on Friday, which followed a weaker than expected jobs report (and actually quite catastrophic NFP print if one actually reads the details).

The overnight session also saw the Nikkei 225 tumble 2.2%, and the drop was far worse earlier before a sharp ramp in the last 30 minutes of trading, as growing speculation the Bank of Japan will end Yield Curve Control and/or raise interest rates lifted the yen and hurt exporters

Bitcoin briefly topped $72,000 for the first time, advancing for a sixth straight day and taking this year’s rally to almost 70% on the back of massive inflows into US exchange-traded funds; a tacit endorsement by Donald Trump who will be the next president in November, also helped push the crypto currency higher

Elsewhere, bond yields were mixed with 10Y yield rising 1bp to 4.08%; the USD is flat following its worst performing week of the year. Commodities are mixed with strength in Energy but weakness in Ags/Metals; base metals are underperforming precious metals with iron ore plunging 7%. CPI is the macro focus this week but there are several bond auctions to watch esp. with the potential for BOJ to tweak YCC/ZIRP next week.

In premarket trading, cryptocurrency-linked companies rally as Bitcoin extends gains to an all-time high, surpassing the $71,000 mark. Among movers Coinbase Global (COIN) +7.2%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +5.7%. Boeing dropped 1.4% after a weekend of negative headlines, which included the DOJ opening a criminal investigation into the incident on an Alaska Airlines-operated 737 Max 9 jet in January, and also another mid-air incident, this time involving a Boeing 787. Here are some other notable premarket movers.

  • Choice Hotels gains 3.3% after the company ends attempts to combine with Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH). Wyndham falls 5.3%.
  • EQT falls 3.7% after agreeing to buy back its former unit Equitrans Midstream Corp. (ETRN)  in an all-stock transaction valued at about $5.2 billion, the latest in a flurry of deals in the oil and gas industry. Equitrans rises 8.7%.
  • Lexicon Pharmaceuticals gains 11% after the placement of $250 million of equity securities.
  • The company also posted quarterly results.
  • Revance Therapeutics advances 6.5% after the biopharmaceutical company reported to the SEC on Friday that CEO Mark Foley purchased 30,000 shares valued at $209,400.
  • Staar Surgical rises 4.6% after Stifel raised its rating on the implantable eye lens company to buy, citing a favorable entry point and potential upside to first-quarter sales.

Looking at this week's main economic event, Tuesday’s CPI report, BBG calls it "a key piece of the puzzle" toward completing the backdrop for the Fed to start cutting rates in the middle of the year. While comments from policy makers last week appeared very dovish, and swaps traders see a June rate cut as a virtual lock, a stronger-than-anticipated jump in consumer prices could derail rallies in stocks and bonds fueled by confidence that the Fed is on the verge of pulling inflation back to its target. That was the case last month, when the CPI data triggered a market selloff. The impact may be stronger this time because it’s the last major piece of economic data before the Fed’s March 20 meeting.

“The bottom line is that loads of folk are preoccupied trying to predict or front-run a first Fed rate cut,” said Mark Dowding, the CIO at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “I still see this as some months away.”

Further moderation in US prices would support the disinflation narrative that broadly remains intact, despite a pullback in the number of Fed rate cuts expected this year. Core prices in the consumer price index are expected to tick 0.3% higher in February from a month earlier, and 3.7% on a year-over-year basis — which would be the smallest annual rise since April 2021. Recent comments from policy makers have supported the case for easing. The S&P 500 rallied 1% Thursday when Powell said in his testimony before the Senate that the central bank is “not far” from being ready to cut interest rates. The same day, Powell’s European counterpart Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank could start reducing rates as soon as June, sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 1.3%.

"A lack of a second-half growth inflection could serve as a headwind for economically sensitive areas of the market, particularly if the Fed holds off on cutting rates longer than expected,” according to Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson, one of the most prominent bearish voices on Wall Street. His 2024 target for the S&P 500 is 4,500, implying a roughly 12% drop from Friday’s close.

European stocks fell for the first time in four sessions, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.6% as basic resources led declines after iron ore slumped on slackening demand from China. Tech stocks are also underperforming, as they did on Wall Street on Friday.  Here are the biggest movers Monday:

  • LEG Immobilien climbs as much as 4.4%, lifted by a better-than-expected dividend proposal from the German residential property firm and expectations of stabilization in real estate prices
  • HelloFresh shares rise as much as 5.7%, rebounding slightly after Friday’s profit warning sent the meal-kit firm tumbling 42%, with some analysts defending the firm, while other cut their price targets
  • Admiral gains as much as 4.4% as Berenberg sees “plenty of reasons to be very optimistic” about the UK car insurance company’s outlook and hikes estimates for the next two years
  • Darktrace shares gain as much as 10% as the cybersecurity firm extends a post-earnings rally, with Numis upgrading its forecasts for adjusted Ebitda margin for FY24 through FY26
  • Enel shares rise as much as 1.4% after Italy’s biggest utility said Saturday that it will sell a majority stake in its electricity distribution activities in the Milan region to competitor A2A
  • European chip stocks see wide losses following Friday’s drop among US peers. BE Semiconductor leads declines, sliding for a second day amid concerns over the adoption of its hybrid bonding technology
  • Telecom Italia falls as much as 9.9% as investors remained skeptical over the firm’s attempt to reassure the markets that a planned €22b sale of its network later this year will allow it to meet debt targets
  • Currys shares fall as much as 12% to trade below the initial proposed offer from Elliott, after the US firm said it is not in an “informed position” to make an improved offer for the retailer
  • Raiffeisen falls as much as 12% in Vienna on news the Austrian lender had a meeting last week with US government representatives over the matter of sanctions with Russia
  • JDE Peet’s drops as much as 4.9% after the coffee company announced late Friday that its CEO Fabien Simon would be departing the firm. ING said the change “can’t come soon enough”
  • Italian lenders drop after the Bank of Italy said it plans to introduce a capital buffer to cover systemic risks equal to 1.0% of domestic exposures weighted for credit and counterparty credit risks

Earlier in the session,  Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days, dragged lower by a pullback in high-flying semi shares and a selloff in Japanese equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.2% and was headed for its biggest drop since Jan. 17. The region’s chip stocks, which rallied alongside US peers last week on optimism that generative artificial intelligence will boost demand, slumped on Monday after worries over lofty valuations triggered Nvidia Corp.’s worst slump since May. TSMC was the biggest drag on the Asian benchmark, followed by Japan’s Toyota.

The Nikkei 225 Index lost more than 2% and slumped below 39,000 as growing speculation the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates boosted the yen and hurt exporter shares. Stocks in Hong Kong and China bucked the broad regional downtrend after data on Saturday showed Chinese consumer prices rose for the first time since August, easing some concerns over deflation. Bilibili led a rally in tech stocks in Hong Kong after JPMorgan upgraded the stock on strong guidance.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, extending losses into a seventh day, its longest losing streak in almost four years. The yen tops the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.3% versus the greenback as speculation swirls around the Bank of Japan meeting next week - the BOJ did refrain from ETF buying today even after the Topix fell 2.3% by midday local time.

In rates, treasuries are narrowly mixed with front-end of the curve underperforming slightly; 2-year yields cheaper by around 2bp on the day. US 10-year yields around 4.08%, marginally cheaper on the day with bunds lagging by around 0.5bp and gilts outperforming by 1.5bp in the sector; front-end underperformance in the US flattens 2s10s spread by 1.2bp on the day and 5s30s by 1.5bp. Moves across core European rates also muted, with bunds marginally flatter. The US session includes a wave of supply, with heavy corporate issuance expected alongside an auction of 3-year Treasury notes. Tuesday brings CPI data, and 10- and 30-year debt auctions are slated for the first half of this week. US auctions kick-off at 1pm New York with $56b 3-year note sale, followed by $10b 10-year and $22b 30-year on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. 

In commodities, oil held a loss ahead of reports from OPEC and the IEA this week that may provide clues on the demand outlook. WTI traded near $78. Spot gold is also little changed around $2,178/oz, trading at an all time high.

In crypto, Bitcoin briefly topped $72,000 for the first time, advancing for a sixth straight day and taking this year’s rally to almost 70% on the back of massive inflows into US exchange-traded funds; a tacit endorsement by Donald Trump who will be the next president in November, also helped push the crypto currency higher; Ethereum soared past 4k and is also approaching its all time high. LSE said it will accept applications for the admission of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) crypto ETNs in Q2 2024. Indian cryptocurrency investment platform Mudrex is now offering US spot-Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to Indian investors, according to CoinDesk.

On the economic data calendar today we have the February New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; main events this week includes CPI, retail sales, PPI, Empire manufacturing, industrial production and University of Michigan sentiment. No scheduled Fed speakers due before March 20 policy decision

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 5,122.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 501.77
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 176.35
  • MXAPJ little changed at 536.84
  • Nikkei down 2.2% to 38,820.49
  • Topix down 2.2% to 2,666.83
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 16,587.57
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,068.46
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 73,765.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 7,704.22
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,659.84
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.26%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0942
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $82.18/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,179.85
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 102.70

Top Overnight News

  • European stocks fell along with US equity futures at the start of a data-heavy week that will test the market’s conviction that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are moving closer to dialing back their inflation fight: BBG
  • Japan’s economy avoided falling into a recession at the end of last year, helped by robust spending by businesses, an outcome that improves the optics for the central bank as it mulls the timing of its first interest rate hike since 2007: BBG
  • China’s CPI overshoots expectations in Feb (+0.7%, up from -0.8% in Jan and ahead of the Street’s +0.3% forecast) while PPI deflation worsened (-2.7%, down from -2.5% in Jan and below the Street’s -2.5% forecast). SCMP
  • Since touching a five-year low in February, China’s benchmark CSI 300 index has climbed 14%. But traders and analysts say those searing gains have been driven chiefly by China’s so-called “national team” of state-run institutions buying in tandem with the CSRC’s punitive actions. There is little renewed appetite among either local or foreign investors, many of whom want to see much more monetary and fiscal stimulus from Beijing. And strategists point to a rally in Chinese government bonds that they say reflects persistent concerns over slowing growth. FT
  • Iron ore slumped 7% — dropping below the $110 a ton mark — after disappointing demand in China left the market lumbered with swelling inventories. The plunge in the steelmaking ingredient was the most since mid-2022 on an intraday basis, and it was headed for the lowest close since August last year. BBG
  • Apple and Tesla cracked China, but now the two largest US consumer companies in the country are experiencing cracks in their own strategies as domestic rivals gain ground and patriotic buying often trumps their allure. Falling market share and sales figures reported this month indicate the two groups face rising competition and the whiplash of US-China geopolitical tensions. Both have turned to discounting to try to maintain their appeal. FT
  • BOE comes under growing pressure to ease policy as the UK jobs market reveals cracks (the latest Recruitment and Employment Confederation/KPMG report showed starting salary growth falling to the lowest level in nearly 3 years). London Times  
  • Ukraine could begin flying Western F16 fighter jets as soon as July, although there won’t be many of them initially. NYT
  • President Biden signed a $460 billion spending package on Saturday to avert a shutdown of critical federal departments even as lawmakers continue to wrestle over a financing blueprint for many other agencies more than halfway into the current fiscal year. NYT
  • IRS says it can deliver an expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) automatically to families without any extra work (meaning Congress isn’t facing a deadline of April to pass the needed legislation as the IRS can remit the cash automatically regardless of whether a family has filed taxes). WaPo
  • OpenAI said that Mr. Altman, who returned to OpenAI just five days after he was pushed out in November, did not do anything that justified his removal and would regain the one role at the company that still eluded him: a seat on the company’s board of directors. NYT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with a downbeat mood with most major indices pressured after Friday's tech-led declines in the US, while participants also digested last week's hawkish BoJ source reports and Japanese GDP. ASX 200 slumped in which the mining and resources industries led the declines across all sectors. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 39,000 level following recent source reports that suggested a potential exit from NIRP this month and after Japan's revised Q4 GDP data missed expectations but showed the economy averted a technical recession. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. bucked the trend with the former boosted by tech strength and with Hong Kong's top market regulator seeking an expansion of the Stock Connect and lower the asset threshold for mainland China investors to CNY 100k. Conversely, the mainland was much less decisive after mixed Chinese inflation data which showed a return to acceleration in consumer prices.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Housing Minister said they should let some property developers go bankrupt or restructure according to legal and market-based rules, while the official stated that commercial banks have approved over CNY 200bln of loans for housing projects as of February under the coordinated mechanism. The minister said home sales will improve in an orderly and forceful way and China is to improve the supply of government-supported affordable housing, while they will work with the top financial regulator to guide cities to set up the property funding coordination mechanism. Furthermore, it was also stated that the priorities this year are work on construction kick-offs, housing quality and construction security.
  • China’s Human Resources Minister said overall employment pressure has not eased and structural problems remain in the jobs market, while the minister added that they are confident they can keep stable employment and that demand for jobs is high in AI and big data sectors, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese regulators held meetings with financial firms to discuss China Vanke (2202 HK) debt, while regulators asked large Vanke lenders to enhance financing support and asked private debt holders to discuss maturity extension, according to Reuters sources.
  • US President Biden’s administration is weighing sanctions on several tech companies including memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies, according to Bloomberg.
  • Hong Kong's top market regulator called for an expansion of the Stock Connect and is seeking to lower the asset threshold for mainland China investors to CNY 100k, according to Bloomberg.
  • Japan's Keidanren Chair says they are feeling greater momentum for wage hikes at this year's spring labour talks vs the prior year. High possibility the BoJ will normalise monetary policy in the near future, do not know if this will occur in March. Likelihood of achieving inflation around 2% is increasing. Prolonged monetary easing as a "shot in the arm" for the economy is not healthy.
  • Japanese PM Kishida is to hold a three-way meeting between the government, labour and corporate management on March 13th to strengthen momentum for higher wages.
  • BoJ makes no ETF purchases on Monday, "despite morning decline in TOPIX", Bloomberg says.
  • China is said to be studying lower down payment ratio for cars, according to Chinese Premier Li cited by Bloomberg

European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.4%), are entirely in the red, with the Eurostoxx50 (-0.7%) hampered by significant losses in chip-maker ASML (-3.3%). European sectors hold a strong negative tilt; Real Estate is propped up by Leg Immobilien (+5.5%), post-earnings; Tech is weighed on by negative sentiment permeating within the semi-conductor industry. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY +0.1%) are mixed and are trading on either side of the unchanged mark; earlier, the NQ posted heftier losses, hampered by Nvidia (+1.6% pre-market), which was initially lower by as much as 2% in the pre-market, though has since reversed course. Newsflow around NVDA includes a lawsuit regarding NeMo AI and a WSJ profile article.

Top European News

  • ECB's Kazimir saw the ECB should wait until June with the first rate cut; rushing a move is not smart or beneficial. Upside risks to inflation are "alive and kicking". Need more hard evidence and only in June will confidence threshold be reached. Discussions on easing should already start, ECB will use weeks ahead of that. Prefers "smooth and steady" cycle of policy easing.
  • UK PM Sunak is reportedly mulling curbs to welfare spending to fund the government’s ambition of further tax reductions, according to The Sunday Times.
  • Exit polls suggest Portugal’s centre-right coalition is on course to narrowly defeat the incumbent socialists but fall well short of a majority in Sunday’s closely fought snap general election, according to The Guardian. It was later reported that Portugal's socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos conceded defeat and the leader of the centre-right democratic alliance Luis Montenegro claimed victory.
  • Polish Central Bank projections: Scenario of extended anti-inflation measures, sees 2024 CPI at 3.0%, 2025 at 3.4% and 2026 at 2.9%; If not extended then sees 2024 CPI at 5.7%, 2025 at 3.5% and 2026 at 2.7%.
  • UBS expects the BoE to start cutting rates in August vs May expected earlier.

FX

  • DXY is flat but the USD is showing varied performance vs. peers. 102.63 low print for the session is above Friday's NFP-induced trough at 102.35. Conviction on USD-related moves likely to be low today given CPI on Tuesday.
  • Steady trade for EUR/USD in quiet newsflow within tight parameters of 1.0933-47 and respecting Friday's 1.0918-81 range.
  • JPY's recent strong run vs. the USD has continued with the currency receiving a boost from GDP figures which showed Japan did not enter a technical recession at the end of last year. USD/JPY has been as low as 146.54 but is yet to crack Friday's trough at 146.48.
  • Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD but AUD more so after being hampered by Iron ore futures falling over 7% in Singapore. AUD/USD is just about maintaining 0.66 status.
  • NOK is weaker in the wake of softer-than-expected Norwegian inflation metrics but well within recent ranges vs. the EUR.

Fixed Income

  • Overall trade for Bunds have been contained; benchmarks derived a modest bid alongside a dip in broader risk sentiment, with the 'haven' move taking Bunds to a 134.04 peak before paring. A move which stopped shy of Friday's 134.15 best. Hawkish sentiment from ECB's Kazimir sparked modest pressure in the Bunds, though ultimately proved fleeting as his remarks echoed recent sources which favour a June cut.
  • UST price action is following EGBs but with the magnitude of moves even more limited; currently trading towards the mid-point of narrow 111-23 to 111-31 bounds. Fed blackout underway and no Tier 1 data due today as we await US CPI on Tuesday and 3yr supply this evening.
  • Gilts once again the relative outperformers, but directionally in-fitting with peers. High of 99.99 is just a handful of ticks shy of last week's 100.03 peak, which also marks the contract high. As above, the docket ahead remains light.

Commodities

  • Crude is modestly firmer, having spent the majority of the European morning flat despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and after reports that Saudi is to reduce Arab heavy crude supply next month, due to oil field maintenance; Brent holds just shy of USD 82.50/bbl.
  • Precious metals are holding mild upward biases amid a steady/caged Dollar, with newsflow light this morning and the calendar sparse; XAU sits in a USD 2,175-2,189.12/oz range.
  • Base metals are flat/mixed amid a steady Dollar and little in terms of fresh fundamental newsflow to drive price action. That being said, Iron ore slumped in APAC hours despite a clear driver, but with some suggesting sub-par stimulus for the Chinese Real Estate market.
  • Saudi Arabia plans to reduce Arab heavy crude supply to term customers in Asia next month due to oil field maintenance, according to Reuters sources.
  • Saudi Aramco CEO said FY saw lower crude oil prices and lower volumes sold but noted that 2023 saw global oil demand reach record levels despite geopolitical tensions and they expect the global oil market to remain healthy this year, while he considers supply and demand to be in reasonable balance. Saudi Aramco CEO said they are ready and able to react to market opportunities and can increase maximum capacity if needed. Furthermore, they are interested in LNG in the US and are looking at further opportunities to invest in China, as well as see significant growth in oil demand in China and Asia, according to Reuters.
  • Qatar set April marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai + USD 0.25/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai + USD 0.05/bbl, according to a pricing document cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US President Biden said it is always possible that there could be a Gaza ceasefire before Ramadan and he was not giving up, while he said he believes Israeli PM Netanyahu is “hurting Israel more than helping Israel” with his approach to the war against Hamas in Gaza and must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost. Furthermore, Biden warned that an assault on Rafah is a “red line” but added that he is not going to cut off weapons to Israel and didn’t specify what the "red line" meant, in an MSNBC interview.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said he intends to push ahead with an invasion of Rafah and insisted his priority is to prevent another terror attack like the October 7th Hamas raid, according to POLITICO.
  • Israel conducted a raid targeting agricultural land near the Egyptian-Palestinian border in the Al Salam neighbourhood in Rafah, according to a correspondent cited by Al Jazeera.
  • Five civilians were killed and nine were injured in an Israeli strike on a border village in southern Lebanon, according to Reuters.
  • US Central Command said US Army vessel General Frank S. Besson departed for the eastern Mediterranean to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza by sea and is carrying the first equipment to establish a temporary pier vital for humanitarian supplies, according to Reuters.
  • US Central Command said US Navy vessels and aircraft along with multiple coalition navy ships and aircraft shot down 15 one-way attack UAVs, while it was later reported that the US military downed a total of at least 28 uncrewed aerial vehicles in the Red Sea on Saturday, according to Reuters.
  • UK Defence Minister said HMS Richmond shot down two drones on Friday night to repel a Houthi attack, while it was also reported that the French military destroyed four combat drones heading towards the European naval mission in the Gulf of Aden.
  • "Israeli reports: Hamas deputy head Marwan Issa killed in shelling of Nuseirat camp", according to Sky News Arabia.

Geopolitics: Other

  • German Foreign Minister Baerbock is open to a missile swap with the UK to arm Ukraine, according to dpa.
  • US and Japan are considering defence cooperation which could help Ukraine with the two sides looking at an arms arrangement ahead of a summit next month, according to Yomiuri.
  • Iran, Russia and China are to hold joint naval drills on March 12th, via MEHR.

US Event Calendar

  • 11:00: Feb. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectat, prior 3.00%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A very good late afternoon from a hot Sydney where it's been nice to be back after a decade, even if the trip has caused havoc with my body clock. I’d also forgotten how crushingly mind-numbing a 24-hour flight is. However, this weekend the alternative was a sleepover at home for five so I still may have been dealt the better hand.

Last night, I published a new chartbook that I thoroughly enjoyed researching with my team, entitled "Geopolitics: 2000 years of long-term charts". The pack shows how the global geopolitical situation got to where it is today in the form of long-term charts and maps. It also tries to understand the likely paths going forward. Geopolitics is heavily linked to the changing nature of economic, military and demographic power across the world. These tectonic plates can grind against each other for years or decades, before shifting dramatically and causing a major upheaval in the global balance of power. Perhaps the biggest lesson from the pack and from history is that in the world of geopolitics and international relations, there are few permanent fixtures, only constant change. See the pack here.

In 2000 years I'm not sure if $250bn has ever been wiped off a stock in 3 hours before. That's what happened to Nvidia on Friday as the stock went from being around +5% up to -6.5% down intraday before closing -5.55%. Then in after-hours trading on Friday, it was down almost another -3%. Remarkably it was still up +6.38% on the week, +21.3% in March so far, and has still posted a tenth week of consecutive gains. That said, the sell-off late in the week meant the S&P 500 (-0.65% Friday) was down -0.26% for the week, and just missed out on advancing for 17 of 19 weeks for the first time since 1964. The macro world is still in hock to the Mag-7 so keep an eye out for what happens next, but this week the macro world will have its own things to focus on with US CPI tomorrow.

On that, with 10yr US yields around -10bps lower, and the S&P 500 around +2% higher than where they were just before last month’s higher-than-expected CPI, it’s fair to say that markets have shrugged off this upside print alongside the high PPI and core PCE prints that followed. Before we preview the US CPI (tomorrow) and PPI (Thursday), the other main US highlights are the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations survey (today), retail sales (Thursday) and UoM consumer sentiment (Friday). There are also 3-, 10- and 30-yr UST auctions today through Wednesday.

In Europe, the monthly UK GDP for January on Wednesday and labour market indicators tomorrow come a week before the next BoE meeting. In Asia, we have China's 1-yr MLF rate where our economists think we will see a 15bps cut. In Japan, the 1st survey results from the important shunto wage negotiations will be released on Friday, which will be key ahead of the BoJ meeting a week tomorrow where speculation mounts that negative rates will end. These are the main highlights but see the full week ahead at the end for all the week's key global events.

Now expanding on the main event. With gas prices up around 4.1% from January, our economists expect headline CPI (+0.41% forecast, consensus +0.4%, vs. +0.31% previously) to grow faster than core (+0.30%, consensus +0.3%, vs. +0.39% previously). This would bring YoY core CPI two-tenths lower to 3.7%, with headline flat at 3.1%. Of some concern would be the three-month annualised rate 'only' ticking down a tenth to 3.9% while the six-month annualised rate would rise a tenth to 3.7%. See our economists preview and post-print webinar registration details here.

For Thursday's PPI, the main interest will be the sub components that feed into core PCE forecasts. As our economists point out, one of the more important will be the PPI for portfolio management and investment advice, which tends to follow equity prices with a one-month lag. We've seen a further equity rally since last month so it could be firm again. This remarkably added about 8bps to the January core PCE print despite only being about 1.6% of the basket. Our economists will also be scrutinising the PPI for selected health care industries, as this category currently has the highest weight in core PCE.

Overnight in Asia, Japanese equities are leading the slump, with the TOPIX (-3.03%) and the Nikkei (-2.87%) both experiencing sharp declines. In fact for the TOPIX, that currently leaves it on track for its worst daily performance since February 2021. The moves follow an upgrade to Japan’s GDP in Q4, with the latest release pointing to an annualised +0.4% expansion, rather than the -0.4% contraction that was first reported. In turn, that’s added to expectations that the Bank of Japan is set to adjust its negative interest rate policy as soon as the March meeting next week, with markets pricing in a 74% prospect of a shift. That’s also meant the J apanese Yen has strengthened further this morning, up +0.08% against the US Dollar, whilst the 2yr government bond yield (+0.7bps) is at its highest level since 2011 this morning.

That downbeat tone has been echoed elsewhere, with futures for the S&P 500 down -0.20% this morning. In Australia, equity markets have also slumped, with the S&P/ASX 200 down -1.82%. However, Chinese equities have been the exception to that pattern, with the CSI 300 (+0.59%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) both advancing, whilst the Hang Seng is up by a larger +1.29%. That comes after China’s February inflation data was released over the weekend, which showed CPI up by +0.7% year-on-year (vs. +0.3% expected). It also marks the fastest pace of inflation since March last year. However, PPI remained in deflationary territory, with a -2.7% decline in February (vs. -2.5% expected).

Looking back on last week, we had another payrolls Friday, which beat expectations after rising by 275k (vs 200k expected). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (vs 3.7%), its highest level since December 2021, while average hourly earnings slowed to +0.1% (vs +0.2% expected). These headline moves were supportive of a soft landing narrative, but there were also some weaker details, notably a -124k downward revision to January’s payrolls. So a mixed release, suggestive of a cooler if still resilient US labour market.

Off the back of this, markets increased the amount of rate cuts expected this year. The amount of Fed cuts expected by the December meeting increased by +2.8bps on Friday (and +3.6bps on the week) to 95bps, though this did retreat after pricing in as much as 103bps shortly after the payrolls release. The first 25bps cut is nearly fully priced by June at 92% (vs 96% the day before and last week).

The data flow combined with slightly dovish central bank commentary sent sovereign bond yields lower last week. Yields on 2yr Treasuries fell -5.6bps (and -2.6bps on Friday), while 10yr yields fell -10.6bps to 4.08%, their lowest level in over a month (-0.9bps on Friday). Over in Europe, yields moved lower following the ECB decision last Thursday, with 10yr bund yields falling -14.6bps (and -3.9bps on Friday).

For equities, the S&P 500 had a soft end to the week, falling -0.65% on Friday. This left the index down -0.26% on the week, so as we mentioned at the top, narrowly missing out on recording 17 out of 19 weekly gains for the first time since 1964. Friday’s reversal was led by tech stocks, with NASDAQ down -1.16% (and -1.17% on the week) and the Magnificent 7 down -1.68% (-1.23% on the week). The tech stock volatility was exemplified by Nvidia, which closed -5.55% lower on Friday (and >10% down from its intra-day peak), but was still up +6.38% on the week to post a tenth week of consecutive gains. The equity optimism was more stable elsewhere, with the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 up +0.91% on the week (-0.17% Friday), while in Europe the STOXX 600 gained +1.14% (+0.02% on Friday), hitting another record.

Finally in commodities, gold hit an all-time high in nominal terms of $2179/oz after rising +4.61% (and +0.96% on Friday). Bitcoin hit another all-time high last week, briefly trading above $70,000 for the first time early on Friday before ending the European session at $68,463 (up +10.57% on the week).

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 08:17

Biden Agrees To Sign Bill That Could Ban TikTok If Congress Passes It

Biden Agrees To Sign Bill That Could Ban TikTok If Congress Passes It

Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Joe Biden is expressing support for a bipartisan proposal that could ban the video-sharing app TikTok from the United States on national security grounds.

President Joe Biden arrives to board Air Force One at the Hagerstown Regional Airport in Hagerstown, Md., on March 5, 2024. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

The president told reporters outside Air Force One that he would sign the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act if Congress approves the bill.

If they pass it, I’ll sign it,” President Biden said.

The House Committee on Energy and Commerce unanimously approved the measure on a 50–0 vote on March 7.

Should it become law, it would grant the president the authority to force the divestiture of social media companies operating in the United States that are more than 20 percent controlled by one of four covered nations or their related entities.

Those nations are China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

Foremost among those companies, and named explicitly in the bill, is TikTok, which is owned by the China-based ByteDance.

Security experts have long warned that TikTok is a weaponized application that could be used to promote Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda or feed Americans’ data directly to the regime.

Notably, TikTok officials previously acknowledged suppressing and “heating” content at the regime’s request, but claim that is no longer the company’s practice. Meanwhile, the U.S. government is investigating ByteDance for allegedly using TikTok geolocation data to stalk and harass U.S. journalists who reported about the company’s links to the CCP.

Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) said the effort is essential to ending the CCP’s efforts to “target, surveil, and manipulate Americans.”

“We have given TikTok a clear choice: Divest from your parent company, which is beholden to the Chinese Communist Party, and remain in operation in the United States, or side with the Chinese Communist Party and face a ban,” she said.

Companies controlled by a foreign adversary like the CCP will never embrace American values, virtues of our society and culture like freedom of speech, human rights, the rule of law, a free press, and others.

President Biden’s reelection campaign joined TikTok last month, even as the app is banned on government devices due to national security concerns. That decision has led some in Congress to question the president’s sincerity regarding a willingness to sign the legislation.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) suggested that the Biden administration isn’t really serious about passing the TikTok bill as it’s made its way through Congress.

The Biden administration says one thing and does another,” he told The Epoch Times’ sister media outlet NTD. “You don’t open up an account of anything that you say you want to abolish.

“We’ve got to get completely separated from China as best we can. And the process starts by not letting them infiltrate the minds of young people and adults.”

Luis Martinez contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 08:10

From Pioneer To Fallen Giant: How Hewlett Packard's Long List Of Failed Acquisitions Cost Its Reputation, Part 2

From Pioneer To Fallen Giant: How Hewlett Packard's Long List Of Failed Acquisitions Cost Its Reputation, Part 2

Part 2 in the series "From pioneer to fallen giant: How Hewlett Packard’s long list of failed acquisitions cost its reputation."

Read Part 1 titled "Billion dollar bungles" here.

The Autonomy Deal – Part 1: Leo Apotheker's Downfall

In the first article in this series, we looked at how in the first decade of the 21st century, Hewlett Packard lurched from one disastrous acquisition to another. By 2011 it was clear that the Compaq, EDS and Palm deals had all failed spectacularly, yet HP’s desire to buy up companies and try to integrate them had not been diminished.

Indeed, the next acquisition move, which we’ll look at in this article, took place just after the death knell had been sounded on the Palm deal. And it proved to be the most controversial of all.

As covered in the last article, in August 2011, Leo Apotheker, CEO of HP, killed off the company’s extraordinarily ill-judged foray into mobile tablets by halting the sale of the HP TouchPad mere weeks after its launch.

It was a microcosm of the challenges Apotheker had faced since he had become CEO in November 2010. Financial underperformance was now endemic. By July 2011, HP had missed quarterly results for four quarters in a row.

The solution, he thought, would be to enact a new and bold strategy. His predecessor, Mark Hurd, had championed the Palm deal and broadening HP’s hardware offer. But the results of that strategy were clearly so disastrous in the eyes of Apotheker that he decided to run in the opposite direction. His strategy would focus on making HP a much bigger player in the world of software.

The logic was that software was a much higher margin business with greater growth potential than HP’s traditional focus of printers and personal computers. Apotheker reasoned that an acquisition would be necessary to jumpstart his new strategy.

His gaze fixed upon a British startup called Autonomy, which specialized in analysis of large scale unstructured big data.

By 2011, Autonomy was clearly a success story, with over 2,500 employees and around a billion dollars in cash. Its core product was the Intelligent Data Operating Layer (IDOL). IDOL allowed the search and processing of text taken from a variety of sources, including audio files, video files, email messages and social media content. This allowed businesses to derive valuable insights from data that was previously difficult or impossible to analyze.

It was this innovative tech that Apotheker wanted to acquire and deploy within HP’s offering. He saw significant potential synergies between Autonomy’s data search and analysis capabilities and the data services that already existed in HP.

By summer 2011, Apotheker was keen to make an offer for purchasing Autonomy. He was willing to pay an extraordinarily high premium of 70% above Autonomy’s market share price to get the deal over the line. This obviously represented a very good offer for Autonomy, which the company’s founder and CEO, Dr Mike Lynch, decided to accept.

True to form, HP’s senior executives couldn’t reach an agreement about the deal. A number of Apotheker’s immediate colleagues, including the CFO Cathie Lesjak, opposed his plans. Lesjak later admitted that she and Apotheker were “at war” in this period.

But Apotheker kept pushing the Autonomy deal. His battles with Lesjak came to a head at a board meeting on 16 August 2011. Lesjak criticised Apotheker's plan in front of the board without any warning. She even emailed HP's Chairman, Ray Lane, in the middle of Apotheker’s presentation about the Autonomy acquisition, to say that Apotheker was a "dead man walking…". It was a boardroom drive-by shooting.

Nevertheless, two days later, HP announced its offer to acquire Autonomy for a price of $11.7bn.

It was at the point of this announcement that HP made its first of many grave errors with Autonomy. The announcement was coupled with a raft of bad news: HP had missed its financial targets results for that quarter, HP had to lower its financial projections for future quarters, and HP was killing the Palm acquisition. To cap it off, HP announced a strategic review of core components of its hardware business, the lion’s share of its revenues.

HP’s shareholders were incredulous. The combination of the latest terrible set of results with the suggestion that HP was withdrawing from hardware, sent the share price tumbling. Instead of focusing on the good news of acquiring Autonomy, it made a cardinal sin of corporate communication by firing out multiple updates in one go to an unprepared market.

Given the uncertainty HP ended up communicated, shareholders shrunk from the Autonomy deal. They simply didn’t have the risk appetite and worked furiously to kill off the Autonomy deal, arguing it was far too expensive a move.

But Apotheker was not to be stopped. He continued to argue that the synergies were significant; the opportunity for HP to deploy Autonomy’s IDOL product were massive.

Ultimately, the deal couldn’t be ended. But Leo Apotheker’s time as HP CEO was. In late September, just over a month after the Autonomy deal was announced, Apotheker was fired. It was no great surprise: HP’s stock had fallen 50% during his tenure.  

A close ally and CTO, Shane Robinson, was also fired. These were the two primary architects of the Autonomy deal, the people with the vision to pivot HP’s business and thoroughly integrate IDOL into its service offering. They were now gone.

Meg Whitman took over as CEO. On the day of her appointment, HP’s board said it would not change its strategy to focus more on services than making computers. In other words, it had rejected Apotheker’s main strategic pillar and announced a U-turn. From Hurd, to Apotheker, to Whitman, HP’s strategic focus had gone from hardware to software and back to hardware.

As Whitman geared up for taking over a deeply troubled company, one awkward question hung in the air: what to do with Autonomy?

In the space of a few weeks, it had gone from critical component of HP’s future success to a massive inconvenience and a weight round the new leadership’s necks.   

For Autonomy’s people, this was obviously bad news. The grand vision for integrating Autonomy was in the mind of Apotheker – but he was gone, and so was the plan for the business.

Whitman was utterly disinterested in the future of Autonomy. She was busy desperately trying to fight fires ripping across the HP business. As Forbes put it in the spring of 2012, “despite a heritage based on innovation, the company is now mired in low-growth PC markets with little differentiation. Investors have dumped the stock, dropping company value some 60% over two years”.

No care or attention was paid to Autonomy. The entrepreneurial spirit of the company was quickly crushed as it lost its independence to HP’s software division. It was a very similar tale to EDS’ integration into HP. Autonomy’s people left in droves as the winning startup culture that had propelled it for years was disappeared by HP’s sapping bureaucracy. By autumn 2012, just a year post-acquisition, 25% of Autonomy staffers had walked out.  

What’s more, HP's sales commission model incentivized the HP sales team to sell products that competed with Autonomy software. Sales representatives didn't receive any commission for Autonomy products. They would often discount Autonomy software in packaged deals to boost their sales of other HP products, so Autonomy's bottom line suffered.

In May 2012, Meg Whitman decided to fire Dr Mike Lynch, who was still Autonomy’s figurehead. The reasons advanced were disappointing results and a culture clash. Dr Lynch’s dismissal was the symbolic end for any hopes of Autonomy being integrated properly into HP.

That summer might have seen the end of the HP-Autonomy deal story. In the event, the episode would run for many years after. It began with a claim of fraud leveled at Dr Lynch amid a massive write-down of Autonomy by HP. Dr Lynch strenuously denied the claim and more than a decade of litigation has followed.

In the next article in this series, we’ll look into the events that ran up to HP’s claim, examine the flimsy evidence it cobbled together to point to a fraud, look into the figures that even HP’s own team thought non-sensical, and HP’s attempts to re-write history.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 11:05

NXXT Golf Bans Transgenders From Female Competitions

NXXT Golf Bans Transgenders From Female Competitions

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Major professional women’s golf tour NXXT Golf made it clear on Friday that individuals who were born as males will not be allowed to take part in their competitions, even after gender transition, effectively banning the participation of a controversial transgender golfer.

“Effective immediately, competitors must be a biological female at birth to participate” to take part in the NXXT Women’s Pro Tour, NXXT Golf said in a March 8 post.

“This decision underscores the organization’s commitment to maintaining the integrity of women’s professional golf and ensuring fair competition.” NXXT Golf’s decision to only allow biological females to participate in the tour comes after transgender golfer Hailey Davidson snatched a win in the NXXT Women’s Classic event earlier in January.

The win raised the possibility that Mr. Davidson, who was born male and transitioned to female in 2021, could end up becoming the first biologically male golfer to qualify for the Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) tour.

Mr. Davidson’s win at the NXXT Women’s Classic event had put him on track to earn an exemption to the Epson tour. The top 10 players of the Epson tour would then qualify to take part in the LPGA tour. The new birth sex requirement ensures that Mr. Davidson is banned from taking part in NXXT Golf’s tours.

“As we navigate through the evolving landscape of sports, it is crucial to uphold the competitive integrity that is the cornerstone of women’s sports,” said NXXT Golf CEO Stuart McKinnon.

“Our revised policy is a reflection of our unwavering commitment to celebrating and protecting the achievements and opportunities of female athletes. Protected categories are a fundamental aspect of sports at all levels, and it is essential for our Tour to uphold these categories for biological females, ensuring a level playing field.”

Mr. Davidson addressed the policy update on Instagram Stories.

“Effective immediately, I have been removed (banned) from the next 3 NXXT tournaments that I already signed up for and been approved to play,” he wrote.

“They changed their policy mid-season, after me signing up already and being 2nd in Player of the Year race.”

According to NXXT Golf, the new birth-sex requirement was instituted after “thoughtful deliberation and extensive consultations” with several stakeholders from the sporting community.

NXXT conducted an anonymous poll among its players on the issue of the tour’s gender policy to ascertain their opinions. The results of the survey have not yet been publicized.

“NXXT Golf is honored to lead in promoting and advancing women’s golf, providing a platform that not only highlights the exceptional talent of women golfers worldwide but also ensures the competition remains equitable for all of our players,” Mr. McKinnon stated.

Transgender Advantage Over Women

Following Mr. Davidson’s January win, NXXT announced they would ask the golfer to undergo additional testosterone testing after some people raised concerns that he may have physical advantages.

In an interview with Sky News that month, Mr. Davidson said he recognizes “that I did have an unfair advantage a few years ago.” However, “I’ve been transitioning for nine years. I’ve been on hormones for almost nine years, I had surgery … coming up almost on three years. I’ve lost just over 50 miles an hour swing speed.”

Studies have shown that trans athletes can retain some of their physical advantages even years after transitioning.

A 2020 study published at the National Library of Medicine examined the impact of gender transition hormones on athletic performance among transwomen and transmen.

“Prior to gender-affirming hormones, transwomen performed 31 percent more push-ups and 15 percent more sit-ups in 1 min and ran 1.5 miles 21 percent faster than their female counterparts. After 2 years of taking feminising hormones, the push-up and sit-up differences disappeared but transwomen were still 12 percent faster,” the study said.

A study from 2021 pointed out that the performance gap between males and females “becomes significant” at puberty. “The performance gap is more pronounced in sporting activities relying on muscle mass and explosive strength, particularly in the upper body.”

Men have a 10–13 percent advantage over women when it comes to rowing, swimming, and road running; a 16–22 percent advantage in football kicks, tennis serves, and pole vaulting; a 29–34 percent advantage in volleyball serves, weightlifting, and golf long drives; and a more than 50 percent advantage in baseball pitches, and field hockey drag flicks.

The study pointed out that “the muscular advantage enjoyed by transgender women is only minimally reduced when testosterone is suppressed.” It recommended sports organizations to “consider this evidence when reassessing current policies regarding participation of transgender women in the female category of sport.”

Mr. Davidson’s win at the NXXT Women’s Classic had triggered widespread criticism, with female activist Riley Gaines calling on female golfers to boycott women’s events.

“If the women competing against male golfer, Hailey Davidson, don’t tee off, I will personally pay any expenses, sponsorships, and/or prize money lost. @SethDillon has agreed to contribute as would many others I imagine. We must stop participating in the farce at large,” she said in a Jan. 24 X post. Seth Dillon is the CEO of Babylon Bee.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 10:30

Medicaid Expansion Was Supposed To Pay For Itself, Instead Hospitals Are Closing

Medicaid Expansion Was Supposed To Pay For Itself, Instead Hospitals Are Closing

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

10 states did not fall for the Medicaid expansion trap under Obamacare. The rest are suffering. Private payers (you, one way or another) make up the loss.

Medicaid Expansion Puts Hospitals at Risk

The Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA) reports Medicaid Expansion Dramatically Increases Hospital Shortfalls emphasis mine.

Medicaid expansion ushered in through ObamaCare has led to program enrollment growth well beyond what was promised or projected. While proponents argue that expansion is a silver bullet to keep hospitals financially secure, this is simply not true.

Because Medicaid does not pay enough to cover the costs to hospitals to provide patient care, hospitals rely on private payers to make up for these losses.

The lower payment rate and more Medicaid enrollees—especially those forced out of private coverage—mean increased Medicaid shortfalls, contributing to lower profit margins. This increases pressure on hospitals’ bottom lines, especially for rural hospitals where fewer patients make it more difficult to make up the shortfalls. The result is hospital closures in expansion states across the country. New data from the Department of Health and Human Services shows just how dire the situation is for hospitals in expansion states.

Not every state chose to expand Medicaid when given the chance beginning in 2014. This provides a real-life demonstration with nearly a decade of data, showing how covering so many able-bodied adults is affecting hospitals. This data can be invaluable for non-expansion states, as well as states that have expanded.

Hospitals in expansion states were in better financial shape before they expanded—but this has since flipped.

The reason for this flip in financial stability in expansion states is that hospitals count on private payers to make up for the reduced payments provided by Medicaid. In non-expansion states, private payers averaged payments of 128 percent of hospital costs, whereas Medicaid averaged only 76 percent of costs.

As a higher proportion of hospital services are billed to Medicaid because of expansion, there are not enough private payments to boost back profits. This is especially true in rural areas without a large patient base to draw from. Thankfully, as non-expansion states have resisted calls to expand, they have not suffered from this shift in payers from private insurance to Medicaid as expansion states have.

Because Medicaid does not pay enough to cover hospital costs, hospitals in most states have Medicaid shortfalls. That is, the difference between hospital payments from Medicaid and the cost of providing services to patients enrolled in Medicaid.

Key Findings
  • Medicaid does not pay enough to cover hospitals’ costs, meaning hospitals need to make up for the shortfall by charging private payers more.

  • In expansion states, hospitals’ Medicaid shortfalls have reached $22.3 billion, increasing by 117 percent since 2013.

  • If non-expansion states were to expand, their hospitals’ Medicaid shortfalls would more than double, from $6.3 billion to $13.2 billion.

  • Non-expansion states should continue to say no to Medicaid expansion, and expansion states should work to roll it back.

Financial Struggles

Several hospitals, especially in rural areas, have recently closed and more are at risk of closing. Another argument made for Medicaid expansion is that it financially helps hospitals, especially rural hospitals. But the data from expansion and non-expansion states does not bear this out.

The more people that are shifted from private insurance to Medicaid, the higher the Medicaid shortfalls, and the lower hospital profits. Hospitals are learning that you cannot become solvent by providing more and more services below cost. This is a surefire way to bankruptcy, not solvency. Nobody would call offering goods or services below cost a successful long-term business plan.

Reality has born this out, with a broad range of hospitals in expansion states closing across the country. In the South, Arkansas’s Crittenden Regional Health had a nearly $7 million surplus before expansion but soon closed after profits turned to losses. In the West, California’s Colusa Regional Medical Center also saw its profits turn to losses soon after expansion and was forced to close. In the Midwest, Illinois’s Westlake Hospital managed a surplus before expansion but by 2019 was operating at a nearly $7 million loss and was forced to close its doors.

Expansion Would Double Shortfalls

Expansion would more than double the Medicaid shortfalls for hospitals in those states, the equivalent of losing nearly 100,000 hospital jobs

Bottom Line

This evidence is clear that any further expansion would only harm the bottom lines of more hospitals by doubling the Medicaid shortfall in any state that chooses to expand. States that have not expanded should continue to avoid the Medicaid trap and those that have expanded should roll it back. 

This was one of the easiest “I Told You So” advance predictions in history.

Best of all, we have a decade of data to prove it thanks to ten states that resisted the trap.

About to Get Much Worse

Thanks to mass immigration, rather the failure to stop it, things are about to get much worse. Denver provides the perfect example.

Please note Denver Health at “Critical Point” as 8,000 Migrants Make 20,000 Emergency Visits

The Denver hospital system is turning away local residents because it is flooded with migrant visits.

Denver Health has treated more than 8,000 migrants who lack legal documentation in the past year, totaling about 20,000 visits, according to Steven Federico, MD, a pediatrician at the health system.

The majority of these patients are coming from Venezuela and arrive needing treatment for chronic and communicable diseases after making the difficult journey.

In 2020, the health system had about $60 million in uncompensated care costs. Last year, costs sprung to $136 million, a quarter of which came from caring for non-Denver residents.

Obama claimed Medicaid expansion would pay for itself.

Whenever you hear that claim please run. Free government handouts are never free and most often backfire completely.

Congratulations to Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming for avoiding the Obamacare expansion trap.

The rest of the states need to reconsider the Faustian bargain they entered.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 09:20

What A Trip: Psychedelic Medicine Company MindMed Shares Rocket 50% After Positive Data

What A Trip: Psychedelic Medicine Company MindMed Shares Rocket 50% After Positive Data

Shares of clinical stage biopharmaceutical company MindMed will once again be on watch Friday after rocketing higher during Thursday's cash session by more than 51% on more than 30x the company's average volume. 

The company announced on Thursday it had received breakthrough therapy designation by the FDA and announced positive 12 week durability data from a Phase 2B study of its candidate, MM120, for generalized anxiety disorder. 

The news was enough to send shares, which have an all time high short interest, rocketing higher.

David Feifel, MD, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Psychiatry at the University of California, San Diego and Director of the Kadima Neuropsychiatry Institute in La Jolla, California and an investigator in the MM120 study commented: “I’ve conducted clinical research studies in psychiatry for over two decades and have seen studies of many drugs under development for the treatment of anxiety. That MM120 exhibited rapid and robust efficacy, solidly sustained for 12 weeks after a single dose, is truly remarkable." 

He continued: “These results suggest the potential MM120 has in the treatment of anxiety, and those of us who struggle every day to alleviate anxiety in our patients look forward to seeing results from future Phase 3 trials.”

Robert Barrow, Chief Executive Officer and Director of MindMed added: “The FDA’s decision to designate MM120 as a breakthrough therapy for GAD and the durability data from our Phase 2b study provide further validation of the important potential role this treatment can play in addressing the huge unmet need among individuals living with GAD.”

“We are committed to bringing MM120 to people living with GAD and delivering on the potential of our pipeline to treat serious brain health disorders,” he said.

The company said of its Phase 2B trial:

In the Phase 2b study, known as MMED008, MM120 was generally well-tolerated with most adverse events rated as mild to moderate, transient and occurring on dosing day, and being consistent with expected acute effects of the study drug. The most common adverse events (at least 10% incidence in the high dose groups) on dosing day included illusion, hallucinations, euphoric mood, anxiety, abnormal thinking, headache, paresthesia, dizziness, tremor, nausea, vomiting, feeling abnormal, mydriasis and hyperhidrosis.

Prior to treatment with MM120, study participants were clinically tapered and then washed out from any anxiolytic or antidepressant treatments and did not receive any form of study-related psychotherapy for the duration of their participation in the study.

The 57 person firm is working on using psychedelics to help treat mental health. "Rather than ameliorating distressing symptoms, MindMed is developing psychedelic inspired medicines that seek to treat underlying causes of distress in the brain," its website says

"Serotonergic psychedelics such as LSD, psilocybin, and DMT increase the creation of new neurons and parts of neurons (neurogenesis and spinogenesis) and connections between neurons (synaptogenesis), which facilitates increased communication between neurons," MindMed's site says. 

"Evidence suggests that while under the influence of psychedelics, the brain shows increased connectivity, including connections between areas of the brain that aren’t normally directly connected. This process may help to reverse some degree of the changes that result from negative experiences, depression, anxiety, PTSD, and substance misuse."

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 08:45

Trump Meets With Hungarian Leader Viktor Orban, Discussions Focus On Border Security

Trump Meets With Hungarian Leader Viktor Orban, Discussions Focus On Border Security

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Former President Donald Trump met with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Friday, with the former president praising Mr. Orban as a “fantastic leader,” while the Hungarian conservative said President Trump is someone who can “bring us peace.”

Over the past several years, President Trump and Mr. Orban have on numerous occasions directed words of praise towards one other, with the former president describing the Hungarian leader as a key figure in the worldwide conservative movement.

Mr. Orban traveled to Florida on Friday to visit President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago home, where he was given a tour of the residence and took part in an hour-long meeting with senior aides.

The Trump campaign said in a readout of the meeting that President Trump and Mr. Orban met “to discuss a wide range of issues affecting Hungary and the United States, including the paramount importance of strong and secure borders to protect the sovereignty of each nation.”

Mr. Orban is admired by many conservatives in the United States for his tough immigration policies and his ardent defense of national sovereignty.

The United States has been gripped by an illegal immigration crisis of historic proportions, with Republicans blaming President Joe Biden’s policies for fueling the influx.

President Trump singled out Mr. Orban’s tough immigration policies for praise in a post on social media after the meeting.

“Hungary is a Safe Country because of his Strong Immigration Policies, and as long as he is in charge, it always will be,” he said in a post on Truth Social.

Mr. Orban has faced criticism in some circles for his self-proclaimed illiberal tendencies, close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his opposition to Western funding for the Ukraine war.

The Hungarian leader has said in the past that the quickest path to ending the Ukraine war is to block weapons shipments to Kyiv.

‘Fantastic Leader’

President Trump joked about the criticism Mr. Orban has faced for his supposed authoritarian inclinations in a brief speech at Mar-a-Lago, a video of which was shared on social media by the Hungarian leader.

Mr. Orban “is a non-controversial figure because he says, ‘this is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it,” President Trump said, drawing laughter from the room full of attendees at his Florida resort.

“Right? He’s the boss,“ President Trump continued, before adding in a more serious tone, ”No—he’s a great leader, fantastic leader.”

For his part, Mr. Orban took to X to express the view that a second Trump presidency would contribute to world peace.

“It was a pleasure to visit President @realDonaldTrump today,” Mr. Orban wrote.

“We need leaders in the world who are respected and can bring peace. He is one of them! Come back and bring us peace, Mr. President!”

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden had harsh words of criticism over the Trump–Orban meeting.

“You know who he’s meeting with today down in Mar-a-Lago? Orbán of Hungary, who’s stated flatly that he doesn’t thinks democracy works, he’s looking for dictatorship,” President Biden said during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania on Friday.

“I see a future where we defend democracy, not diminish it,” he added.

Mr. Orban served as prime minister from 1998 to 2002, before returning to the position in 2010.

‘Bring Us Peace’

In May 2023, the Hungarian leader spoke to Republicans and European allies at the second annual meeting of the Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC) Europe in Budapest, Hungary.

During his prepared remarks, Mr. Orban claimed there wouldn’t be a military conflict in Eastern Europe if President Trump were in office.

“I’m sure if President Trump would be the president, there would be no war in Ukraine and Europe,” Mr. Orban said at the time. “Come back, Mr. President. Make America great again and bring us peace.”

Mr. Orban has called Hungary an “incubator” where experiments on the future of conservative policies are carried out.

Hungary is the place where we didn’t just talk about defeating the progressives and liberals and causing a conservative Christian political turn, but we actually did it,” Mr. Orban said.

He also decried liberalism as a “virus,” criticized “woke culture,” and rejected the “LGBTQ lobby.”

Mr. Orban has faced a torrent of criticism in some circles over his various positions, including with respect to Ukraine.

The Hungarian leader has said he believes Kyiv can’t win the war and that the best way to resolve the conflict is to pursue an immediate ceasefire after negotiations.

Mr. Orban has been a fierce critic of Western arms shipments to Ukraine, arguing that it only serves to prolong the war, leading to more devastation of Ukraine and loss of life.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 08:10

"Madness!": West Is Conducting "All-Out Militarization" To Defeat Russia, Serbian President Warns

"Madness!": West Is Conducting "All-Out Militarization" To Defeat Russia, Serbian President Warns

Last week we detailed that during Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to Albania where he appealed for more weapons from Balkan countries, he pushed the idea that all Western-friendly Balkan states should have a pathway to the EU and NATO. And at the same time French President Emmanuel Macron has been busy floating the possibility of Western troops deploying to Ukraine.

Albania is of course a chief regional rival to Moscow's close ally and friend Serbia. Jahja Muhasilovic, a political analyst on the Balkans, had commented of Zelensky's rare Balkan trip that "Albania is known to be one of the staunchest supporters of limiting Russia’s influence here in the region."

"In a way, Zelensky’s visit in Albania is having that geopolitical connotation. He is probably counting on the Western Balkan countries not to help them militarily because they are limited, but through their lobbying part that they can play in continuing the armament of the Ukrainian troops," he explained.

In fresh comments this weekend, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has weighed in and responded to ongoing calls from Western officials to urgently send more weapons to Kiev. Vucic has accused the West of pursuing a policy of "total militarization" toward defeating Russian, which puts the region and the world on the brink of disaster and stumbling to WW3.

Russian & Serbian Presidents at a meeting in 2019, via AP.

"What is happening now is madness," he was cited in regional media as saying. "They all thought that Putin would be easily defeated. Now they see that this is not so."

"The current trend is toward total militarization and a five-fold build-up in all respects," the Serbian president said further during a visit to the Belgrade Military Technical Institute.

Vucic has also warned against European countries sending their troops to Ukraine to confront Russian forces, saying this would immediately and unpredictably escalate the war.

According to Politico on Friday, France is behind a new push for a serious 'option' of Western boots on the ground in Ukraine:

France is building an alliance of countries open to potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine — and in the process deepening its clash with a more cautious Berlin.

French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné was in Lithuania on Friday, where he met his Baltic and Ukrainian counterparts to buttress the idea that foreign troops could end up helping Ukraine in areas like demining.

"It is not for Russia to tell us how we should help Ukraine in the coming months or years," Séjourné said at a meeting chaired by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and attended by his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. "It is not for Russia to organize how we deploy our actions, or to set red lines. So we decide it among us."

Coming off Macron first raising the issue at an international security conference last month in Paris, French FM Séjourné said further, "Ukraine did not ask us to send troops. Ukraine is asking us to send ammunition at the moment." But then he emphasized, "We do not exclude anything for the coming months."

It is these kinds of ultra-provocative statements which Serbia's Vucic is precisely calling "madness" which sets the stage for nuclear-armed confrontation between Russia and NATO. The trend also seems to be that the more clearly Ukraine forces are losing, the more unhinged and bellicose some Western officials become.

All of this comes as Ukraine is in retreat, following Russia's capture of the eastern city of Avdiivka last month. Several other smaller towns and cities have also fallen, with Ukraine's front lines in disarray. This has resulted in what might be called empty threats being issued from the West, as it sits helplessly while watching Russian forces advance.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 07:35

The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

How Long Do Muslims Fast For Ramadan Around The World?

How Long Do Muslims Fast For Ramadan Around The World?

Ramadan starts on Sunday evening, with the first day of fasting on Monday, March 11 this year. The holy month is based on the Islamic lunar calendar which is 11 days shorter than the Gregorian solar year, and so its start shifts earlier each year.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, while the number of days of Ramadan are equal for all Muslims observing it around the world, the length of the daily fast is not.

During Ramadan, observers vow to abstain from eating, drinking, smoking and sexual activities through daylight hours.

This means that those living further north have to fast for much longer than their counterparts living closer to the equator or even to those in the Southern hemisphere, which is currently tilted away from the sun.

This chart, based on data from website islamicfinder.com, shows how Muslims fasting for Ramadan in Oslo theoretically will have to do so for 15 hours and 15 minutes, while those living in Jakarta, Indonesia, will only need to fast for approximately 13 hours and 13 minutes.

Meanwhile, those living in Melbourne will have just 13 hours and 25 minutes of daylight, depending on the exact day of the Ramadan month.

With the dates of Ramadan moving, there can be a significant difference in the length of fasting depending on the year.

 How Long Do Muslims Fast For Ramadan Around the World? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

For example, in 2013, Ramadan took place during the peak of summer for the Northern Hemisphere, with countries such as Norway experiencing sundown for only around three hours at night.

This meant practicing communities faced fasts lasting upwards of 20 hours.

To counterbalance this, Muslims may also observe Ramadan using the timetable of Mecca (13 hours and 30 minutes in 2024) or their nearest Muslim city.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 15:45

Judge Blocks Biden Administration From Illegally Diverting Border-Wall Funds

Judge Blocks Biden Administration From Illegally Diverting Border-Wall Funds

Authored by Caden Pearsen via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Friday blocked the Biden administration from unlawfully redirecting taxpayer funds away from the construction of a wall along the southern border.

Southern District of Texas District Court Judge Drew B. Tipton granted a preliminary injunction after Texas and Missouri sued to stop the scheme, which included diverting the money to other projects like environmental remediation.

“Whether the Executive Branch must adhere to federal laws is not, as a general matter, an area traditionally left to its discretion,” Judge Tipton wrote in his order. The executive branch includes the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Judge Tipton, an appointee of President Donald Trump, ruled in favor of the Republican-led states, saying in his ruling that Congress should decide how money is spent, per the U.S. Constitution, and that the Biden administration is not immune from following the law.

President Trump declared a national emergency in February 2019 and used funds from the Departments of Defense and Treasury to construct barriers at the southern border. Congress allocated $1.4 billion explicitly for border wall construction during the 2020 fiscal year to stem the flow of illegal immigration.

However, President Joe Biden, a Democrat, issued an executive order immediately upon taking office in January 2021, terminating the emergency and halting construction. He later directed the DHS to divert the funds to ancillary projects along the border, but not the wall.

This led to both Texas and Missouri filing separate lawsuits against the DHS, which were ultimately combined.

The Biden administration argued that, despite certain language in the law, the DHS should be allowed to spend the money at its discretion.

However, the judge disagreed with this argument, effectively finding that President Biden was wrong to spend funds specifically meant for wall construction on “remediation projects.”

The judge ruled that just because the DHS claimed to have the authority to make certain spending decisions, it doesn’t mean it is free to do whatever it wants.

“Agencies, when afforded congressionally appropriated funds, may expend them only for the proper purpose and amount, and within the authorized period of time,” Judge Tipton wrote.

Therefore, without that discretion, the DHS’s spending decisions “run afoul” of the law, specifically violating the Administrative Procedure Act (APA).

Judge Tipton wrote in his order that the way Congress wrote the law was quite specific in saying the money should go to barriers along the border.

“The central question in this case, then, is this: Has the Government obligated FY 2020 and FY 2021 funds for the ‘construction of [a] barrier system’? The answer is largely no,” the judge wrote.

The Biden administration’s new border plan, unveiled by the Department of Defense and the DHS in June 2021 and updated about a year later, contemplated spending the funds on flood control, cleanup, and environmental remediation projects. This would include adding lighting, cameras, and detection technology at locations where a physical barrier had already been constructed.

Under the plan, most border wall projects were canceled, and all the existing barrier infrastructure previously funded by the DOD was transferred to the DHS’s control.

The attorneys general of Texas and Missouri, who challenged these spending decisions, hailed the ruling on Friday.

“Today, I secured a preliminary injunction against an attempt by the Biden Administration to illegally redirect statutorily obligated funds away from the construction of a border wall,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement.

“Biden acted completely improperly by refusing to spend the money that Congress appropriated for border wall construction, and even attempting to redirect those funds,” he continued. “His actions demonstrate his desperation for open borders at any cost, but Texas has prevailed.”

Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey called the ruling a “huge step” in fighting to secure the southern border.

“The Biden Administration has failed to abide by the law to finish the construction of a wall along the southwest border,” Mr. Bailey said in a statement. “Joe Biden refuses to carry out his constitutionally mandated responsibilities, so we took him to court to force him to do his job. This is a huge step forward in the fight to secure our border at a key moment in our nation’s history.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 15:10

A Low-Trust Society Is An Impoverished Society

A Low-Trust Society Is An Impoverished Society

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The sole remaining reservoirs of trust in American life are personal networks, local enterprises and local institutions.

It's not exactly news that social trust has declined significantly in the United States. Surveys find that public trust in institutions and the professional classes that dominate those institutions has cratered. (see chart below) Social trust--our confidence that other people are trustworthy--has also fallen to multi-decade lows.

This was not the case in decades past. Americans maintained high levels of trust in their institutions, government and fellow citizens. The decline in social trust is across the entire spectrum: our trust in institutions, professional elites and our fellow Americans has declined precipitously.

The causes of this decay of social trust can be debated endlessly, but several factors are obvious:

1. Institutions forfeited the trust of the citizenry by withholding / editing realities to serve the interests of hidden agendas and insiders' careers. The Vietnam War was pursued on fabrications, as was the second Gulf War to topple Saddam. Watergate eroded trust on multiple levels, as did the Church Committee's investigation of America's security agencies' domestic spying / over-reach.

2. The managerial / professional elites at the top of the nation's institutions no longer put the citizenry's interests above their own. The public's trust has eroded as institutions are primarily viewed as vehicles for self-enrichment and career advancement: healthcare CEOs pay themselves millions, higher education is bloated with layers of non-teaching administration, defense contractors and the Pentagon have greased the revolving door to the benefit of incumbents and insiders, and so on, in an endless parade of self-serving cloaked with smirking PR claims of "serving the public."

The shift from a high-trust society to a low-trust society is consequential economically, politically and socially. Low-trust societies have stagnant economies, as nobody trusts anyone they don't know personally or through personally trusted networks, and nobody trust institutions to function effectively or fulfill their stated mission to serve the public good.

Faced with incompetent, unaccountable, corrupt bureaucracies and a culture overflowing with scams, frauds, imposters and get-rich-quick schemes, people give up and drop out. Rather than start a business and accept all the risks just to get dumped on or ripped off, they don't even try to start a business. Given the financial insecurity that is now the norm, they decide not to get married or have children.

The vast trading networks of the Roman Empire were based on personal trusted networks and trust in Rome's functionaries / institutions. The owners of trading ships dealt with trusted captains and merchants, who then paid duties to Roman functionaries in Alexandria and other major trading ports.

In other words, tightly bound personal trusted networks work well as long as the state institutions that bind the entire economy are trusted as fair and reliable--not perfect, of course, but efficient and "good enough."

But when public institutions are viewed as unfair, unreliable, corrupt or incompetent, the entire economy decays. Even personal trusted networks cannot survive in an economy of unfair, unreliable, corrupt or incompetent state bureaucracies and private institutions.

The American economy is now dominated by enormous privately owned and managed monopolies and cartels that are the private-sector equivalent of self-serving state bureaucracies. Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Healthcare, Big Ag, Big Finance, etc., are even worse than state bureaucracies because there are no legal requirements for transparency or recourse. Try getting a response from a Big Tech corporation when you've been shadow-banned or sent to Digital Siberia.

The sole remaining reservoirs of trust in American life are personal networks, local enterprises and local institutions. These are not guaranteed, of course; in many locales, even these reservoirs have been drained. But in other locales, enterprises and institutions such as the county water utility, the local newspaper, the local community college, etc. continue to earn the trust of the public by performing the services they exist to provide effectively and at a reasonable cost.

The larger the institution and the greater its wealth and power, the lower the social trust--for good reasons. The greater the influence of the managerial elites, the greater the disconnect from the everyday experiences of the citizenry and customers, and the more extreme the self-serving PR.

Sure, I trust Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Healthcare, Big Finance--to rip me off, profiteer, send me obfuscating bills, jack up junk fees, make it impossible to contact them, and send me to Digital Siberia if I complain.

The divide between the elites and the commoners should prompt us to examine the low-trust path we're sliding down:

In a society in which everything is phony, low quality or fraudulent, you're taking a chance trusting anyone you don't know personally--and even that can be risky now that self-aggrandizing flim-flam is the last remaining path to financial security for non-elites.

A low-trust society is an impoverished society, economically stagnant and socially threadbare. That's where we are now, and the more fragmented, greedy, self-serving, desperate and deranged we become, the lower the odds that we'll find the means to rebuild trust.

Sadly, we already know that anyone claiming to "rebuild trust" is spouting PR designed to mask self-enrichment. We also know that the vast army of well-paid flacks, factotums, enforcers, happy-story apologists, lackeys, toadies and sell-out minions are declaring "everything's great!"

Just mumble, "Uh, sure" and continue to Tune in (to degrowth), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to self-reliance and relocalizing capital and agency).

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 10:30

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