exports

August Trade Deficit Jumps by 15.6%, on Pace to Subtract 0.68 Percentage Points from 3rd quarter GDP

Our August trade deficit rose by 15.6% from July as the value of our exports fell and the value of our imports rose.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for August indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $6.5 billion to $48.3 billion in August from a July deficit which was revised from $41.9 billion to $41.8 billion. 

July Trade Deficit Falls by 7.3%, on Pace to Add 0.58 Percentage Points to 3rd quarter GDP

Our July trade deficit fell by 7.3% from June as the value of our exports rose and the value of our imports fell.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for July indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $3.3 billion to $41.9 billion in July from a June deficit which was revised from $43.8 billion to $45.2 billion. 

June Trade Deficit Up 7.1%, Negligible Impact on GDP

Our trade deficit increased by 7.1% in June as the value of our exports fell and the value of our imports rose.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for June indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $2.9 billion to $43.8 billion in June from a May deficit which was revised from $41.9 billion to $40.9 billion.

Trade Deficit Declines 7.7% on Crude Oil Imports

The U.S. November 2014 monthly trade deficit declined -7.7% from last month and now stands at -$39 billion.  America still runs a surplus in services, now at $19.3 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$58.3 billion.  This month's trade deficit reduction is due to less crude oil imports and lower oil prices.

September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.

Trade Deficit Dramatic Shrink Will Boost Q2 GDP

The U.S. June 2013 monthly trade deficit cliff dove -22.4% from last month to $34.2 billion.  This is the smallest trade deficit since October 2009 when the world was plunged into a global recession.  A combination of a dramatic drop in oil imports along with solid U.S. exports in fuel oil, capital goods and jewelry was the reason for the deficit decline.  Q2 GDP should be revised upward past 2.0% as shown below.

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