retail sales

On those Holiday Retail Sales 2009 Press Reports

The headlines are once again, all ablaze at the projections of a 3.6% retail sales rise from November 1st to December 24th, 2009.

Not so fast. These preliminary numbers are generated from SpendingPulse and the report is not publicly online, so we cannot check the raw report ourselves.

Relying on the media, it appears there was an extra day in the tally and without that extra day, comparing apples to apples vs. oranges from 2008, the actual increase was 1%.

Even more interesting, the above report shows from November 1st to December 24th. The extra day was around Black Friday.

CBSMarketWatch, reporting on Black Friday or November 27th, to December 24th, 2009, without the extra day, holiday sales were actually down.

Advanced Retail Sales - October 2009

Advanced Retail Sales for October were released yesterday.

While just getting to it today, the headlines screamed retail sales are a blow out yesterday (not all but many).

Here are the numbers:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $347.5 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 1.7 percent (±0.5%) below October 2008.

Total sales for the August through October 2009 period were up 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2009 percent change was revised from -1.5 percent (±0.5%) to -2.3 percent (±0.3%).

Advance August 2009 Retail Sales Auto Dealers 11.9% Jump

Minus autos (vehicles and parts), the preliminary retail sales report gives an increase of 1.1% from July 2009. From the current press release:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $351.4 billion, an increase of 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 5.3 percent (±0.7%) below August 2008. Total sales for the June through August 2009 period were down 7.6 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.2 percent (±0.2%)*.

Links on Retail Sales and Unemployment Initial Claims

Normally we write our own take on various economic indicators and data on EP...

Tonight, I'm tired and instead am going to point to some very good posts, which I think give some insight.

On today's jump in initial unemployment claims, complete with original graphs, Calculated Risk.

Here is the DOL press release on this week's unemployment claims.

U.S. Dept. of Commerce's press release on retail sales.

retail sales July 2009

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