Recent comments

  • November trade deficit was revised higher from the originally reported $45.24 billion to $45.73 billion, and trade figures for every prior month of 2016 were also revised, meaning that prior quarter over quarter figures for GDP will have to be revised as well...in the advance report on 4th quarter GDP of two weeks ago, our December trade deficit was estimated based on the sketchy Advance Report on our International Trade in Goods which was released just before the GDP release...that report estimated that our December goods trade deficit was at $65.0 million, on goods exports of $125.5 billion and goods imports of $190.5 billion...this report revises that and shows that our actual goods trade deficit in December was at $65.7 billion on adjusted goods imports of $192.6 billion and adjusted goods exports of $126.9 billion...in addition, the November trade deficit was revised higher by nearly $0.5 billion…just those two revisions from the previously published data mean that the 4th quarter trade deficit in goods was roughly $1.2 billion more than was included in last week's GDP report, or roughly $4.9 billion on an annualized basis, which would subtract about 0.11 percentage points from 4th quarter GDP....

    however, trade in goods for July, August, September and October, which all go into figuring the change in GDP, were also revised with this report as well...to assess those changes, we can view the all previously published trade details in the pdf for November's trade report, and then compare them to the revised numbers in the pdf for December's trade report....without going into too much detail or attempting to adjust for fractional inflation factors, the net trade deficit for July was revised from $39,626 million to $39,977 million, the net trade deficit for August was revised from $39,626 million to $39,977 million, the net trade deficit for September was revised from $39,626 million to $39,977 million, and the net trade deficit for October was revised from $39,626 million to $39,977 million...that means the trade deficit in the 3rd quarter was roughly $1.05 billion more than was reported by the GDP report, which they would have reported at a $4.2 billion annual rate, and hence the change in the deficit from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter was that much smaller ...those 3rd quarter revisions would thus add about 0.10 percentage points back to the change 4th quarter GDP, ie, make it less negative than was reported in the advance report...

    Reply to: Over Half a Trillion 2016 Trade Deficit   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • There is much more that goes into inventories than the industrial component, it's in the BEA NIPA handbook...but they also get revision data that can go into GDP but is not yet published in monthly reports. I think they believe no one would bother to track to this level, yet many do and one would think they would simply make it easier on the public since so many do. Maybe it's job security.

    Reply to: Q4 GDP A Bumbling 1.9%   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • it's pretty easy to figure the variance in those reports, where they actually give you what their estimate for the 3rd month of the quarter was when they computed the advance GDP report...others, like the trade deficit, are not so easy...and i still haven't figured out what makes inventories tick...based on my assumptions, i seem to be missing their eventual impact by quite a bit every month..

    Reply to: Q4 GDP A Bumbling 1.9%   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • But that's none too good. There was a report about GDP still having seasonality in it, despite adjustments on the BEA website.

    Reply to: Q4 GDP A Bumbling 1.9%   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • wednesday's report showed that construction spending for all three months of the 4th quarter was higher than was reported by the BEA in their advance estimate last Friday....annualized construction spending for October was revised $7.25 billion higher, and annualized construction spending for November was revised $2.3 billion higher...in reporting 4th quarter GDP, the BEA's technical note (pdf) indicated that they had estimated December residential construction would be $2.2 billion more than that of the previously reported November figure, with single family construction valued at $249.4 billion and multifamily valued at $62.3 billion, and that December nonresidential construction would be $428.0 billion, $1.9 billion less than that of the reported November figure...with this report, December residential construction spending of 466,938 was up by $2.154 billion from the revised November figure, with new single family construction at $250,359 million and new multifamily construction at $63,725 million, and December nonresidential construction spending was at $430,053 billion, statistically unchanged from the revised November figure...hence, total construction spending in December was roughly $4.5 billion more than the figures used by the BEA to compute 4th quarter GDP …...hence, the annualized figure for 4th quarter construction spending would have thus averaged $4.67 billion more than the figure used by the BEA when computing 4th quarter GDP, which would mean that Wednesday's report implies a .12 percentage point upward revision to 4th quarter GDP...

    today's factory inventories report indicates the value of non-durable goods' inventories rose by $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $241.7 billion, following a revised 1.1% increase in November non-durable inventories...however, the BEA's technical note for 4th quarter GDP indicates that they had estimated that the value of non-durable goods inventories would increase at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $16.9 billion, so that would indicate that they overestimated the 4th quarter GDP inventory component by about $6.1 billion, which would imply that 4th quarter GDP will have to be adjusted downwards by 0.15 percentage points to account for what today's report shows..

    Reply to: Q4 GDP A Bumbling 1.9%   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • I think Bernie is somewhere on the left and he certainly opposed the TPP and other job killing trade treaties. Despite the right’s attempts to characterize Obama and Hillary as leftists they were in effect card carrying centrists, the same corporate stooges that are found deep in Republican land. There is a difference between social policies and economic policies on the left. You can be socially liberal and a corporate stooge. These were once called liberal Republicans who became extinct with the advent of the Southern Strategy. Also to compete with corporate Republicans many Democrats take the money, throw working Americans under the bus and support Gay rights.

    The problem on the left is not being against working Americans its being too consumed in taking care of every wet puppy on the political spectrum. They’ve forgotten that FDR created the Democratic base by putting working Americans first. They need to figure out how to dry their puppies, save the Planet and protect the American workers that voted for their Grandfathers.

    Reply to: Trump's Third Day   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Recent terror attacks in the US have been formulated by US citizens and long term US residents not recent immigrants. Travel would seem to be incidental. The 9 11 terrorists were not from the Nations on Trump’s list however most were from Nations where Trump does business and are excluded. Trump’s policy is certainly not well thought out as even the Iraqi General fighting ISIS in Mosul was barred from entering the US to visit his family who were relocated here for their safety. His policy is however a direct affront to over a billion people who, given our past inane foreign policies, don’t need a lot of coaxing to become radicalized. So basically this policy amounts to kicking a hornet’s nest to keep from being stung. If it doesn’t work I’m sure the next step will be to kick it harder.

    Reply to: The President’s Latest Controversy   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • didn't quite get it this time.

    Reply to: Using December CPI to compute real PCE shows a 138 basis point boost to 4th qtr GDP   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Wow, I would have never considered this, very glad you wrote about it. Oh yes, they are stifling cross border capital, the Chinese most fabulous game.

    Reply to: China Moves to Curb Bitcoin following Capital Flight   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • On one hand we have him cancelling TPP and considering currency manipulation, VAT style taxes which both the left and right have been crying for a long time. Yet, he is putting some of the worse scumbags responsible for the housing crisis in charge and denying a government break on housing. Maybe it is simply to undo whatever Obama did, regardless of policy. ;)

    Reply to: Forgotten Again   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • national media, emanating from the coasts, fail to see how well Trump's intitial moves are playing in the Midwest...the border tax is one thing, but he's also managed to get GM, Ford and Chrysler to reverse planned outsourcing and commit to expanding US plants, and has forced at least a dozen other companies to rethink their outsourcing plans with simple twitter threats...and Jack Ma, the Chinese billionaire who runs Alibaba, promised an unrealistic million new jobs in the US after meeting with Trump...so making a NAFTA rollback his first priority is just icing on the cake for the Great Lakes states most effected by it...there's no doubt that were another vote taken today, he would win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and PA by much larger margins than he did in November...

    Reply to: Using December CPI to compute real PCE shows a 138 basis point boost to 4th qtr GDP   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • If trump manages to get a VAT, i.e. a border tax enacted, it will be a strange and wild inflation ride. I'm for this as a tool to balance the trade deficit but exports will go dramatically down, it might deflate the dollar while import prices will soar. I'm not a Trump fan but we have promoted that very policy on this site ages ago. Glad to see some positives coming out of his administration so fast.

    Reply to: Using December CPI to compute real PCE shows a 138 basis point boost to 4th qtr GDP   2 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Here comes inflation to eat up any gains in wages and income. It is good you are covering oil. Has to be *the* biggest factor in prices and even the economy, yet almost no one on economic sites talks about it.

    Reply to: Producer Prices Up 0.3% in December, Unprocessed Goods Spike 8.3%   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • meta tags need to be separated by commas in order to work. Consider editing and putting commas inbetween.

    My drumming circle just said "anyone xenophobic" need not be here, we are about stopping xenophobia at every turn. Unreal, there goes the entire purpose, which was simply to have fun, be spiritual and drum together. Nope, turned that into a political rant and wrecked it.

    Reply to: Hollywood Liberals, Would You Please Shut Up!   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • almost any data that the commerce department publishes is nearly impossible to figure accurately unless it's accompanied by inflation adjusted data...ive got lucky a few times doing retail with CPI, but for the most part i figure my numbers are plus or minus 10%...for instance, construction spending was also out this week, and the NIPA handbook specifies use of at least a dozen different price indexes, most of which are privately published...so i just estimate with the producer price index for final demand construction and hope for the best...with oil and other price volatile commodities in trade, you wouldnt want to use just one index, and figuring the real value of every line item would be next to impossible without the program the govt uses...i actually tried that a few times, years ago, before i found that all that was already done in Table 10 of the full pdf...

    Reply to: Further Deterioration of Trade Deficit in November Means A Bigger Hit to 4th Quarter GDP   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • I've attempted to calculate GDP impact with import, export prices and get garbage. I find the mystery and user error on my part is not resolved with reading and phone calls. If you see of anyone who can do this, who isn't being paid $$ with private issue reports, let's find out how they did it.

    I've been shocked at how the trade deficit hasn't pulled too much off of GDP this entire year considering what we know about China trade and other nation's individual deficits. Oil has greatly positively impacted the situation, so the party over on import prices we would assume a return to negative land.

    Reply to: Further Deterioration of Trade Deficit in November Means A Bigger Hit to 4th Quarter GDP   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • Treating housing as an investment is artificial, bogus and economically perilous. A privately owned individual housing unit is one each unit of shelter. Its value is determined by its quality and location. It is not a source of income, commodity, stock or bond to be traded for profit. It is an integral part of living in the same category as cars, furniture, tools clothing …………… It may appreciate in price but not in value. It will always be one each unit of shelter yielding a given quality, comfort and use. Borrowing against its price to supplement income is tantamount to spending little Billy’s bedroom. Likewise moving to another equivalent or better unit of shelter and keeping out price appreciated monies is living off debt. This in reality puts one behind not ahead. Any price appreciation greater than incomes and overall inflation is artificial and built on the debt required to finance it. This has not been sustainable and is one measure of the deviation between economic views and economic realities.

    Reply to: Case-Shiller Shows Housing Unaffordable   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • Twenty years ago the Boskin Commission essentially removed inflation from the calculation of inflation. This "calculated" inflation value is not only the basis for COLAs for retirees and workers both Public and Private it is also used to adjust GDP calculations. Inflation is factored out of the GDP calculation thus understating inflation results in an over statement of GDP. So if you think prices are going up faster than 0.23% per year, the economy is growing slower than 2.7% per year and you've been falling behind for twenty years you're right. Now as for the birth death model and seasonal adjustments to the employment numbers............................

    Reply to: Party Over on Cheap Debt   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • This is so bad, the price of gas can really harm the overall economy, as seen in 2008 and other crises.

    Reply to: US gasoline production at record levels, but supplies are still dropping on record exports   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:
  • Although now most things adjust for inflation, they often don't adjust enough. We've had years of low inflation and increasing inflation hurts fixed income, seniors.

    Reply to: Party Over on Cheap Debt   2 years 6 months ago
    EPer:

Pages