Recent comments

  • I've attempted to calculate GDP impact with import, export prices and get garbage. I find the mystery and user error on my part is not resolved with reading and phone calls. If you see of anyone who can do this, who isn't being paid $$ with private issue reports, let's find out how they did it.

    I've been shocked at how the trade deficit hasn't pulled too much off of GDP this entire year considering what we know about China trade and other nation's individual deficits. Oil has greatly positively impacted the situation, so the party over on import prices we would assume a return to negative land.

    Reply to: Further Deterioration of Trade Deficit in November Means A Bigger Hit to 4th Quarter GDP   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • Treating housing as an investment is artificial, bogus and economically perilous. A privately owned individual housing unit is one each unit of shelter. Its value is determined by its quality and location. It is not a source of income, commodity, stock or bond to be traded for profit. It is an integral part of living in the same category as cars, furniture, tools clothing …………… It may appreciate in price but not in value. It will always be one each unit of shelter yielding a given quality, comfort and use. Borrowing against its price to supplement income is tantamount to spending little Billy’s bedroom. Likewise moving to another equivalent or better unit of shelter and keeping out price appreciated monies is living off debt. This in reality puts one behind not ahead. Any price appreciation greater than incomes and overall inflation is artificial and built on the debt required to finance it. This has not been sustainable and is one measure of the deviation between economic views and economic realities.

    Reply to: Case-Shiller Shows Housing Unaffordable   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • Twenty years ago the Boskin Commission essentially removed inflation from the calculation of inflation. This "calculated" inflation value is not only the basis for COLAs for retirees and workers both Public and Private it is also used to adjust GDP calculations. Inflation is factored out of the GDP calculation thus understating inflation results in an over statement of GDP. So if you think prices are going up faster than 0.23% per year, the economy is growing slower than 2.7% per year and you've been falling behind for twenty years you're right. Now as for the birth death model and seasonal adjustments to the employment numbers............................

    Reply to: Party Over on Cheap Debt   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • This is so bad, the price of gas can really harm the overall economy, as seen in 2008 and other crises.

    Reply to: US gasoline production at record levels, but supplies are still dropping on record exports   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • Although now most things adjust for inflation, they often don't adjust enough. We've had years of low inflation and increasing inflation hurts fixed income, seniors.

    Reply to: Party Over on Cheap Debt   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • Certainly the era of cheap and easy debt fueled bubbles - tech, mortgage as well as encourages leveraging M&A and stock buybacks inflating the stock market and executive pay. It also saddles consumers and students with debt that may never be fully repaid

    cheap interest has also been a disincentive to save and bad news for retirees on fixed incomes. Lack of healthy savings contributed to the slow recovery as well

    Reply to: Party Over on Cheap Debt   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • Frankly, the democratic party hanging its hat on the hacking as the primary excuse for losing the election is getting very tiresome. We all know the realities, Clinton was a lousy and flawed candidate that most people simply didn't trust - and for good reason. Did anyone really believe her flip flopping and non committal on TPP?

    It also exposed the disconnect from the people here in flyover country and a woeful lack of a bench for future democratic growth. Democrats spent too much time on national and identity politics rather than the hard work of building for the future - running credible candidates from dog catcher, to school boards, town councils and other local and state levels - which has been a very effective strategy for the right. In my town for example the democrats didn't even bother to put a warm body on the ticket in over half the local races -the republicans were unopposed.

    Assuming for a moment the Russians really did hack the DNC, they did us a favor exposing how corrupt and non democratic our election process has become.

    I agree with Robert - I will be happy if Trump can pull off half of what he promises on our flawed trade regime

    Reply to: Elite Anti-Trump Hysteria is an Act   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • i've noticed that 'non-monetary gold' is almost always a big line item in the monthly trade data, as both an export and an import in the industrial supplies and materials category...it seems to me a lot of non-monetary gold is being shipped back and forth as if it were money, but it's still treated as an item of trade...i've asked those who purport to be trade experts, such as Brad Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations, what that's all about, and have yet to get a satifactory explanation...

    Reply to: 3rd Quarter GDP Revised to Indicate Growth at a 3.5% Rate   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • There is another trade report, but often there are other areas, such as gold being exported that rival the nominal value of soybeans. Although soybeans are a huge cash crop. Thanks for the overview. So nice the U.S. became the 3rd world agriculture exporter while we import expensive, completed durable goods.

    Reply to: 3rd Quarter GDP Revised to Indicate Growth at a 3.5% Rate   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  •  Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser has an overview on our trade with China:
    Reply to: The 18% Jump in Our October Trade Deficit Portends a Big Hit to Q4 GDP   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • The problem is that we don't get unbiased coverage of Russia from either our mainstream liberal media or conservative media such as Fox. To get some perspective on Russia you really have to go to anti-War/non-interventionist sites and alternative media sites whether libertarian, paleoconservative or liberal. Crimea and Syria are both complicated, but it is possible, and I believe correct, to see Russia as the actor the most in the right in both situations. Rather than rehash it, I address Crimea and Syria in this article.

    http://www.newswithviews.com/guest_opinion/guest301.htm

    Reply to: Trump Plus Russia Equals Double the Crazy   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • This will do 'er, except for ND of course. Thanks for the analysis, even though it's not good news.

    Reply to: Oil Production Cuts Could Result in 600,000 Barrel Per Day Global Deficit in First Half of 2017   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • A couple of things make me think Putin's a malefactor. One is the takeover of Crimea, a violation of the Atlantic/United Nations charter, and something scarcely heard of in Europe since World War II. The other is the bombings in Aleppo and elsewhere in Syria. They look like war crimes to me, but you can never gain a conviction in such things unless you win the war and capture the perpetrators.

    If he's crazy, it's crazier to play along with him.

    Reply to: Trump Plus Russia Equals Double the Crazy   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • Yeah, supposedly it is been import prices keeping the real deficit at bay. Trump is claiming we have an annual $800 billion trade deficit, I'm assuming that's nominal and we should determine how much is China. .

    Reply to: The 18% Jump in Our October Trade Deficit Portends a Big Hit to Q4 GDP   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • It is all yours and goes out to the feeds but the articles help bring in readers. I should write about the economics of long term care, costs and lack of real care.

    Reply to: Patched Up? Or Patched Over?   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • The emails showed how the DNC really screwed over Bernie Sanders, but in terms of hacking media manipulation, I saw plenty before the election against Hillary. My concern would be vote hacking. I also question how Donald Trump made his money beyond his Dad. I cannot imagine anyone making it in NYC real estate, especially queens in the 1950s/60s, without the blessing of the local organized crime bosses. So, they have media manipulation as an end game of the Russian hacking and what a surprise, the entire election is circus. Even the "debates" were so inane there was no real information in them.

    I just hope Trump sticks to his guns on trade. If he manages to get somewhere against the multinational corporate interests on those trade deals, that would be an incredible accomplishment. Hillary sure wasn't going to do it.

    Reply to: Elite Anti-Trump Hysteria is an Act   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • "So, in theory, free trade was a win-win proposition, but only as long as a few key assumptions held true: There needed to be fixed exchange rates, full employment, an absence of international flows of labor or capital, an absence of economies of scale, and perfectly competitive markets."

    It has been decades since all these assumptions have even been even close to true.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/12/globalization-trade...

    Reply to: The Tin Ear of Free Trade Advocates   2 years 10 months ago
    EPer:
  • I assume the hacking is real, as the FBI has now reached consensus with the CIA on that point. But neither agency has implicated Mr. Trump. So the Electoral College shouldn't use the hacking as an excuse and I don't think any of them will - only in the Washington Post's dreams.

    Reply to: Elite Anti-Trump Hysteria is an Act   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • I was referring specifically to Instapopulist. No criticism implied. Hope all is well.

    Reply to: Patched Up? Or Patched Over?   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • I've been dealing with caregiver issues so hopefully more articles will be published than has been of late.

    Reply to: Patched Up? Or Patched Over?   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:

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