Recent comments

  • Welcome Mr. Seidel. It's nice to have someone else posting here besides me. I hope you stick around.

    Reply to: Patched Up? Or Patched Over?   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • GS

    Isn't that just same ole, same ole for Goldman Sachs to issue yet another to be Treasury secretary? Carbon copy. Glad to see you Michael!

    Reply to: Swamp Thing Takes Over Treasury – ForclosureGate II, the Sequel   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • Why can't they just all not get along?

    Reply to: OPEC agrees to cut production back to March levels, oil prices spike 14%   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • Unfortunately, the boom bust cycle is a means of extraction of wealth and expansion of power. The Fed largely governs this cycle, we have a ways to go before the next crash.

    Reply to: Swamp Thing Takes Over Treasury – ForclosureGate II, the Sequel   2 years 11 months ago
    EPer:
  • I guess Feds are going to increase interest rate next month. All data seems encouraging. Unemployment rate is very low, Wholesale Inventories are up 0.1%, and now with Trump coming to president's office, I feel Feds are definitely going to increase interest rate in December, 2016. I think this is for the best; keeping interest rate lower isn't gonna do much good anyway...

    Reply to: August PCE, trade balance, construction, factory and wholesale inventories mostly down, but all add to Q3 GDP   2 years 12 months ago
    EPer:
  • There is nothing inherently wrong with the current system excerpt that it's being abused by Indians...
    They currently appropriate 80% of the work visas, so simply placing a cap on Indians will solve the problem...

    Reply to: Tom Friedman Is Now Another Angry While Male   3 years 1 day ago
    EPer:
  • Dreher refers to Bradley Manning as a 'traitor' to this day. The guy is obnoxious and dumber than he looks, and he's a perfect example of what's wrong with Conservatives - for all his pretense of criticizing American foreign policy and the elites he'll still go to bat for the Imperial bureaucracy pretending to defend us, even if it means attacking political prisoners who dare to expose aforementioned diplomatic traitors. He's all talk, and I have more respect for an honest NeoCon than his feelz based approach to taking sides. The man repels me, and I would break his nose as soon as look at him

    Reply to: Rod Dreher Has Officially Jumped the Shark   3 years 1 week ago
    EPer:
  • So glad you cranked some numbers to show their fraud. This isn't the first time they have done this, issued a bogus report, conveniently times, a consortium of big business lobbyists.

    Reply to: 15 Million Fracking Jobs at Risk; 12 Million Export Jobs Could Also Be Lost   3 years 1 week ago
    EPer:
  • using full pdf: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2016/pdf/gdp3q16_adv.pdf
    aggregate PCE goods, table 2 line 3, added 48 basis points to GDP
    but i also figured bar and restaurant sales, "Food services and accommodations" line 20 under services, which added another 14 basis points...
    the caveat i noted above was i could not reconcile gas station sales up 2.4% with gasoline prices up 5.8%, which would imply a 3.4% decrease in gasoline sales. since that didn't make sense, i considered gasoline sales to be unchanged in my calculation.
    turns out PCE for gasoline and other energy goods was down at a 3.5% rate and had subtracted 5 basis points from GDP (table 2, line 12, table 3, line 12)
    so if i had included that, i would have estimated retail to have contributed .62 percentage points to 3rd quarter GDP, exactly what PCE goods + food services shows
    however, even i can't be that accurate; since i'm only provided one significant digit in the CPI source data, the accuracy of my estimate can only be to one significant digit, hence my (+/-10%) margin of error

    Reply to: Inflation Increases As Gas Prices and Shelter Costs Rise   3 years 2 weeks ago
    EPer:
  • I'm not sure how you are breaking up the real goods stacked up in GDP.

    Reply to: Inflation Increases As Gas Prices and Shelter Costs Rise   3 years 2 weeks ago
    EPer:
  • with this CPI release for September, we can now attempt to estimate the economic impact of the September retail sales figures which were released last week, which saw nominal sales rise 0.6%...for the most accurate estimate, and the way the BEA will be figuring 3rd quarter GDP at the end of October, we would have to take each type of retail sales and adjust it with the appropriate change in price to determine real sales; for instance, September's clothing store sales, which were unchanged in dollars, should be adjusted with the price index for apparel, which indicated prices for clothing were down by 0.7%, which tells us that real retail sales of clothing were actually up by 0.7% September..then, to get a GDP relevant quarterly change, we'd have to compare such adjusted real clothing sales for July, August and September with the similarly adjusted real clothing consumption for the 3 months of the second quarter (April, May and June ), and then repeat that process for each other type of retailer, obviously quite a tedious task to undertake manually.  The short cut we usually take to get a quick and dirty estimate of the change in real sales for the month is to apply the composite price index of all commodities less food and energy commodities, which was down 0.1%, to retail sales less grocery, gas station, and restaurant sales, which accounts for nearly 70% of aggregate retail sales. in dollars, those sales were up by roughly 0.5% in September, while their composite price index was down 0.1%, meaning that real retail sales excluding food and energy sales were up by around 0.6%.  then, for the rest of the retail aggregate, we find sales at food and beverage stores were up 0.1% in September, while prices for food at home were down 0.1%, suggesting a real increase of around 0.2% in the quantity of food & beverages purchased for the month.  Next, sales at bars and restaurants were up 0.8% in dollars, but those dollars also bought 0.2% less, so real sales at bars and restaurants were up by about 0.6%.  And while gas station sales were up 2.4%, gasoline prices were up 5.8%, suggesting a substantial real decrease in the amount of gasoline sold, with the caveat that gas stations sell more than gasoline, and we don't have a detailed breakout on that.  Weighing the food and energy components at roughly 30% of total retail sales, and core sales at 70%, we can estimate that the aggregate of real retail sales in September were up about 0.5% from those of August…

    next, to see how the change in real September sales impacts the change in 3rd quarter GDP, we have to compare those September sales to those of the 2nd quarter...now, to get an approximation of the real adjusted changes for September vis a vis the 3 months of the first quarter, we'd normally also have to adjust the September percentage changes for the upward revision to July and August sales that were included in the September retail report, which saw July sales revised from $457.7 billion to $458.5 billion and August's sales revised from $456.3 billion to almost $457.0 billion...however, since the net August revision is considerably less than 0.1%, it will not affect our September percentage increase, but the total $1.5 billion extra sales would still add 0.03 percentage points to GDP...next, using Table 7 in the pdf for the August personal income and outlays report, which gives us already inflation adjusted changes for the prior months, we find that real sales of goods were up 0.2% in May, up 0.4% in June, up 0.7% in July, and down 0.6% in August...that means real September sales, up 0.5% from August, were up about 0.6% from June, up about 1.0% from May, and up about 1.2% from April, or up more than 0.9% from the average of the 2nd quarter...aggregating real September goods sales as 100.5% of those in August shown in Table 7 of the income and outlays report with July and August sales and comparing that to real 2nd quarter goods sales shown in Table 8, we find that real good sales grew 0.78 from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd, or at a 3.17% annual rate, a pace that would add at approximately .67 (+/-10%) percentage points to 3rd quarter GDP from the goods portion of personal consumption expenditures alone.. ...

    Reply to: Inflation Increases As Gas Prices and Shelter Costs Rise   3 years 4 weeks ago
    EPer:
  • These programs are effective at driving up prices for arms and ammo for the common man. Very effective.

    Reply to: The enemy is us.   3 years 1 month ago
    EPer:
  • You're right and wrong. Darrell Castle isn't known by many conservatives. I am a #nevertrump and #neverclinton voter who intends to vote for Castle, but only because I actually know who he is and what he stands for. I didn't know who he is until recently. I think that many more conservatives will get on board if we can find the right messaging. And this messaging in this article (at least a small part of it) is not the right messaging. There is a branding problem. Nobody knows who you are. I intend to help spread the news. If you can reach out to millennials and connect, they'll carry your advertising water for you. I'm a millennial, and that's what I intend to do, but you need to connect with many more of us. DO NOT compromise any of your principles and values in that process. Instead, just communicate with my generation. Do some research. Figure us out. Then share your messages where we are. We need to hear what Castle has to say.

    Reply to: If It’s Really About Conservative Purity Then Endorse Darrell Castle or Shut Up   3 years 1 month ago
    EPer:
  • Not saying that Trump won't pull a bait and switch, and I'll bet his hotels are loaded with workers on guest Visas...but...

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/20/hillary-clint...

    Reply to: The Tin Ear of Free Trade Advocates   3 years 1 month ago
    EPer:
  • the rich have always wanted to screw the poor -- it is up to us to vote them out and take our country back

    Reply to: The Tin Ear of Free Trade Advocates   3 years 2 months ago
    EPer:
  • You can find out where all this sorry stuff leads if you read 2094. See 2094thework.com

    Reply to: The enemy is us.   3 years 2 months ago
    EPer:
  • to the public is ridiculous. I guess they are trying to get money for the index, it should probably be paid by industry or large institutions.

    Reply to: July PCE, Trade Deficit, Construction, and Factory Inventories Point to 3rd Qtr GDP Growth Over 3%   3 years 2 months ago
    EPer:
  • ISM

    i know the PMIs are widely followed, but since they are surveys of execs rather than data, they don't feed into GDP, all i've been doing is noting the index values...both of them took a tumble in August, we'll have to wait to see how that plays out in the regular August releases..

    Reply to: July PCE, Trade Deficit, Construction, and Factory Inventories Point to 3rd Qtr GDP Growth Over 3%   3 years 2 months ago
    EPer:
  • ISM manufacturing is down, showing contraction. I've stopped covering it because they made getting the data very difficult so no graphs.

    Reply to: July PCE, Trade Deficit, Construction, and Factory Inventories Point to 3rd Qtr GDP Growth Over 3%   3 years 2 months ago
    EPer:
  • Thanks for the kind words Dan and Robert. I may wish to take you up on that offer Robert. If you wish to move my post to an article of its own I am OK with that. I found out about two more prominent free trader economists that have grown increasingly skeptical about the benefits of globalism - Martin Wolf and Larry Summers (yes, that Larry Summers!)

    Reply to: The Tin Ear of Free Trade Advocates   3 years 2 months ago
    EPer:

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