As I said on Facebook, I think the Stoddard - Cruz/Cruz supporters comparison is more accurate than the Doniphon - Trump comparison, but the point is more that different times call for different actions, and now is not the time for finger wagging about principles.EPer: Dan Phillips
Hum...don't recall Wayne's Tom Doniphon character being a man of big deals, forcing eminent domain laws, bankruptcy. Much less did Wayne's Doniphon have the moral depth of character to brag of bedding down married women. Trump as John Wayne...don't think so.
Indeed, Trump seems far more likely a big-shot bully perl Liberty Valance...ready to cash in on a $billion-dollar$ Deal if the Neo-Cons offer it in Urkaine, Syria, Poland, Russia. Doubt seriously Trump would have fared well in a Wayne western...unless grossly miscast.;-)EPer: David E. Rockett (not verified)
My experience is they revise internally before we see it on trade data and those import/export price deflators are often key.
So glad you covered this though, trade is now a huge campaign issue.
producer prices for finished goods were up 0.7% in May, following an increase of 0.2% in April, with producer prices for energy goods up 2.8% and core producer prices up 0.3%, so after factory inventories are adjusted for inflation, they will likely show a real decrease on the order of 0.8% for the month, following the 0.3% real decrease in April...thus with two months of factory inventory data in the books, then, it appears that this real inventory contraction will result in a substantial subtraction from 2nd quarter GDP figures when they're released at the end of July...
i just realized that construction spending went through an annual revision (i thought it had one a few months ago) so i'll have to recompute the quarterly change against the revised 4th quarter data, but it still looks huge..
"Inherent in the genteel manners that purportedly characterized old WASP society was the concept of noblesse oblige, the idea that with station and wealth comes an obligation to the less fortunate."
I think that's a bit much to say.EPer: wobblie
Sure seems like the revisions are way off of the mark. I know they publish margins of error and percentages of corrections but these do seem huge.
today's construction spending report showed the annual rate of construction spending for March was revised from $1,155.1 billion to $1,176.4 billion, and the annual rate of February construction spending was revised up from $1,137.9 billion to a $1,157,7 billion rate...combined, those revisions are enough to add 0.25 percentage points to 1st quarter GDP....that will likely show up in the annual GDP revisions to be released early August
interesting that growth in current dollar GDP at 1.4% was unrevised from the second estimate...don't recall that i've ever seen such a large revision in the GDP deflator this late in the game..
I think much of this is shear panic versus real impact. Brexit.
April inventories were up 0.1% with a 0.2% increase in producer prices...it's only one month, but if it doesn't improve it could wipe as much as 200 basis points off GDP...
is going to be fairly solid so that makes Q1 just a bump. TBD on the employment report but the recent follows Q1.
The problem is that in effect a morally pure, "testimonial party" is hard-pressed to exist as any sort of weighty force in the actual political scene absent proportional representation, notably proportional representation of the threshold-free sort that exists in the Netherlands. The Constitution Party has certainly served a noble effect as a grounding pole for the more discerning traditional elements (even if actually voting for them may not always have been the wisest choice) to rally around. The question is to what extent that rallying is useful in an electoral cycle such as this and with a candidate such as Trump. That said, if they are going to field a candidate I agree with your recommendation. At the least it won't give the interventionists and immigrationists in the NeverTrump crowd that there is an electoral "pure conservative" line to validate their insane and stupid diplomatic and immigration policies.EPer: Nicholas MOSES (not verified)
could be..i had been expecting that to reverse when it slowed down in 2015 but this year it looks like it's getting worse every month...
Is that longer than the length of home ownership?
two people making minimum wage start at $32,000 a year. That is the least a husband and wife or two roommates can make if they work. The problem isnt household income...its the fact that most Americans do not work anymore. Why dont they report the number of hours worked when quarterly taxes are submitted? Because only 30% of Americans work full time jobs now. We are so rich, they dont need or want full time work to subsist.EPer: James Barbour (not verified)
Bernie doesn't give a crap about American workers, his base is the alien heavy SEIU, selling US citizenship and free stuff for poor immigrants is their only revenue, without invasion they collapse.
That "US WORKERS" crap Bernie pushes in speeches is for idiot drones that didn't notice him meeting with the Mexicans in CA that support permanent invasion with benefits rights, his Obama SEIU base.EPer: Steven B Smith (not verified)
Thank you for some honesty
USA exports & imports about the same amount of refined product
so it should not be deducted from their oil imports - about 9 MBD
another reason it should not be deducted
a country imports 100 ton of iron ore and exports 80 ton of steel
does that mean they only imported 20 ton of iron ore?
what nonsense - nor is exported refined product the same as crude oil
America only produces 5 MBD conventional crude oil
100 barrels of crude oil into a refinery
107 out of refined product - crude & refined product are not the same
so adding 7% is fraudulent
also it doesn't BTU's
and please consider
you are making a cake - it requires 2 eggs whisked - that fluffs em 50%
have you just added 3 eggs? NO!
Neither should the 7% refinery gain be added - it is all part of their propaganda
Thanks again for an excellent article
I posted a segment on Google plus - G+
site name is
OIL WATCH Group
GrayEPer: Gray Mewburn (not verified)
with this release, we can now attempt to estimate the economic impact of the retail sales figures from last week, which saw nominal sales rise 1.3%...for the most accurate estimate, and the way the BEA will be figuring 2nd quarter GDP at the end of July, we would have to take each type of retail sales and adjust it with the appropriate change in price to determine real sales; for instance, April's clothing store sales, which rose by 1.0% in dollars, should be adjusted with the price index for apparel, which indicated prices were down by 0.3%, to show us that real retail sales of clothing were actually up by 1.3% in April...then, to get a GDP relevant quarterly change, we'd have to compare such adjusted real clothing sales for April with the similarly real clothing consumption for the 3 months of the first quarter, January, February and March, and then repeat that process for each other type of retailer, obviously quite a tedious task to undertake manually....the short cut we usually take to get a ballpark estimate of real sales is to apply the composite price index of all commodities less food and energy commodities, which was down 0.1%, to retail sales less grocery, gas station, and restaurant sales, which accounts for nearly 70% of the aggregate sales...those sales were up by just about 1.4% in April, while their composite price index was down 0.1%, leaving real retail sales excluding food and energy sales up by roughly 1.5%...then, for the rest of the retail aggregate, we find sales at grocery stores were up 1.1% in April, while prices for food at home were up 0.1%, suggesting a real increase of around 1.0% in the quantity of food purchased for the month...next, sales at bars and restaurants were up 0.3% in dollars, and those dollars bought 0.2% less, so real sales at bars and restaurants were only up by about 0.1%...and while gas station sales were up 2.2%, gasoline prices were up 3.4%, suggesting a real decrease in the amount of gasoline sold, with the caveat that gas stations sell more than gasoline, and we don't have the breakout on that...weighing the food and energy components at roughly 30% of total retail sales, we can estimate that real retail sales in April were up slightly less than 1.3% from March…then, to get an approximation of the real adjusted changes for the 3 months of the first quarter, we check Table 9 in the pdf for the March personal income and outlays report, which shows real sales of goods were down 0.2% in March and down 0.6% in February....that means real, inflation adjusted April retail sales were 1.1% higher than those of February but only 0.5% higher than those of January....that still leaves real retail sales at an average of 1.0% greater than those of the first quarter, which is growth at annual rate of more than 4.0%, a pace which if continued throughout May and June, would add roughly 0.96 percentage points to 2nd quarter GDP...
Since last 9-28-15 we have moved into the lost confidence model on the Public side. Public side is usually government. I believe now it is also Banks. Private is where capital will move to. For Information on this goto MartinArmstrong.com. If and when the electronic purse happens the war on cash (Freedom) will be in full bloom. Will not be able to buy or sell with it in terms of their system. That is slavery. People do trust the Banks. That will make it their blockchain fail.EPer: Chris (not verified)