Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 490,000; this is 1.7 percent (±7.1%)* above the revised June figure of 482,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 80,000.
Ok, firstly 1.7% isn't that much but the biggest thing here is the margin of error, 7.1%! And that asterisk?
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
Last month housing starts unexpectedly rose from 477,000 (annualized) in January to 583,000. This morning March's data came in at 503,000 annualized.
Last month we were told not to get to excited by "one month's data." We can contain our enthusiasm now. The trendline to 0, apparent in the chart below (not updated with today's data) has resumed:
This morning the Census Bureau reported housing starts at an annual rate of 464,000 for January 2009. At a nearly 80% decline from the high of 2,273,000 starts of January 2006, the collapse in housing starts is now not just the worst since the modern data series was started in 1959, it is also worse than the 75% decline during World War 2. The only worse decline is the 90% decline between 1927-1935.
Sales in September 2008 (5.18 million SAAR) were higher than in September 2007 (5.11 million SAAR). This is the first time sales have increased for any month year-over-year since November 2005.
Recent comments