Calculated Risk

August 7 COVID-19 Test Results

Note: There are some states having reporting problems.

Stunning death numbers from the NY Times (and the CDC): Tracking the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the United States
Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from March 15 to July 25, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period.
...
Many epidemiologists believe measuring excess deaths is the best way to assess the impact of the virus in real time. It shows how the virus is altering normal patterns of mortality. The high numbers from the coronavirus pandemic period undermine arguments that the virus is merely killing vulnerable people who would have died anyway.
The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 762,883 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 61,520 positive tests.

See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

COVID-19 Tests per Day Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.1% (red line).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

AAR: July Rail Carloads down 17.6% YoY, Intermodal Down 1.4% YoY

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.
U.S. rail traffic in July was mixed, but overall it pointed to continued slow recovery (especially when coal is out of the picture) from April’s low point. Total U.S. originated carloads averaged 208,403 per week in July 2020, the most since March 2020 but also by far the lowest for July since prior to 1988, when our data begin. July’s decline was 17.6%, the smallest decline since March 2020. Excluding coal, U.S. carloads were down 12.7% in July
emphasis added
Rail Traffic Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020:
Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads averaged 208,403 per week in July 2020. That’s the most since March 2020, but it’s also by far the lowest weekly average for July since our records begin in 1988. Total carloads were down 17.6% in July 2020 from July 2019. That’s the 18th straight year-over-year decline but the smallest percentage decline since March 2020. Total carloads in the first seven months of 2020 were down 16.2%, or 1.27 million carloads.
Rail TrafficThe second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers):
U.S. intermodal. originations were down just 1.4% in July 2020 from July 2019, their best performance since February 2019. Weekly average originations in July 2020 were 259,192 containers and trailers, the most since October 2019 and a huge improvement from the 2020 low of 219.085 in April. Intermodal originations in the last week of July were 270,277, the most for any week in 2020.
Note that rail traffic was weak prior to the pandemic.

Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 70% YoY in June

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: June 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics
With several gaming properties gradually re‐opening at varying capacities and on staggered dates after June 4, the destination hosted an estimated 1.1M visitors, roughly 30% of last June's visitation. With continued mandated restrictions on group sizes, no measurable convention attendance occurred during the month.

Based on the destination's room inventory of 95,396 rooms* (excluding temporary closures), total occupancy reached 40.9% for the month with weekend occupancy coming in at 51.8% and midweek occupancy of 36.5%.

* Reflects weighted average of daily room tallies of open properties, i.e., approx. 22k rooms on Jun 1, 2 & 3, increasing to roughly 90k rooms on June 4 and eventually reaching approx. 115k in the latter days of the month
Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.

Las Vegas Click on graph for larger image.

The blue and red bars are monthly visitor traffic (left scale) for 2019 and 2020.   The dashed blue and orange lines are convention attendance (right scale). 

Convention traffic in June was down 100% compared to June 2019.

And visitor traffic was down 70% YoY.

The casinos started to reopen on June 4th, but visitor traffic is down significantly from last year.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 35% Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 1 August
U.S. hotel performance data for the week ending 1 August showed slightly higher occupancy and room rates from the previous week, according to STR.

26 July through 1 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):

Occupancy: 48.9% (-34.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$100.04 (-25.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.96 (-51.1%)

U.S. occupancy has risen week over week for 15 of the last 16 weeks, although growth in demand (room nights sold) has slowed.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

As STR noted, the occupancy rate has increased week-to-week in "15 of the last 16 weeks". The increases in occupancy have slowed and are well below the level for this week last year of 75%.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).

According to STR, most of the improvement appears related to leisure travel as opposed to business travel. The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August (right now), and the occupancy declines sharply in the Fall.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Due to Expirations

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of Monday, August 3rd.

The usual forbearance period is 3 months, and a large number of mortgage holders have had there forbearance period extended an additional 3 months.

From “Echo wave” of forbearance expirations
The latest data from the McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that, improving upon last week’s decline, the number of active forbearance plans fell by 101,000 from the week prior, driven in part by the estimated 500,000 plans that were set to expire at the end of July entering the last week of the month.

More than two-thirds of loans that remain in active forbearance have had their plans extended. With the bulk of forbearance extensions being for an additional three months, an ‘echo wave’ of forbearance expirations has been generated.

For context, entering June, nearly 2.5 million plans were set to expire in that month. Given the typical 3-month extensions 2.2 million are now set to expire in September, meaning another wave of forbearance extensions and removals may very well be seen in late September/early October.
...
As of August 3, approximately 4 million homeowners were in active forbearance, the lowest such share since the last week in April and representing 7.5% of all active mortgages, down from 7.7% the week prior. Together, they represent $852 billion in unpaid principal.

Spikes in COVID-19 around much of the country and the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits at the end of July both represent significant uncertainty for the weeks ahead. Black Knight will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates via this blog. emphasis added
Black Knight ForbearanceClick on graph for larger image.

CR Note: There will be another disaster relief package soon, but we might see an increase in forbearance activity in the coming weeks as we wait for additional relief.

Comments on July Employment Report

The labor market swings have been huge, and the July employment report was somewhat better than expected with 1.8 million jobs added.

Leisure and hospitality led the way with 592 thousand jobs added in July, following 3.386 million jobs added in May and June. Leisure and hospitality lost 8.318 million jobs in March and April, so about 48% of those jobs were added back in May, June and July.

Earlier: July Employment Report: 1.8 Million Jobs Added, 10.2% Unemployment Rate

In July, the year-over-year employment change was minus 11.4 million jobs.

As expected, there were 27 thousand temporary Decennial Census workers hired (and included in this report).   This will surge over the next two to three months. "A July job gain in federal government (+27,000) reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census."

State and local education declined 960 thousand in July NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).   This was much more than expected, and this resulted an increase of only 245 thousand jobs SA (Seasonally Adjusted).  This means state and local governments are cutting education much more than expected due to budget constraints.   I'll have more on this later.

Permanent Job Losers

Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the July report. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg)

This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.

In July, the number of permanent job losers was essentially unchanged from June.

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery.

The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in July to 81.3%, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased slightly to 73.8%.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 619,000 to 8.4 million in July, reflecting a decline in the number of people whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions (-658,000). The number of involuntary part-time workers is 4.1 million higher than in February."
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in July to 8.443 million from 9.062 million in June.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 16.5% in July. This is down from the record high in April 22.8% for this measure since 1994. The previous peak was 17.2% during the Great Recession.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.501 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This will increase sharply in 2 or 3 months, and will be a key measure to follow during the recovery.

Summary:

The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations and the previous two months were revised up 18,000 combined.  The headline unemployment rate decreased to 10.2%.

As a reminder, the course of the economy will be determined by the course of the pandemic.

July Employment Report: 1.8 Million Jobs Added, 10.2% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 26,000, from +2,699,000 to +2,725,000, and the change for June was revised down by 9,000, from +4,800,000 to +4,791,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined was 17,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July, the year-over-year change was -11.371 million jobs.

Total payrolls increased by 1.8 million in July.

Payrolls for May and June were revised up 17 thousand combined.

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment ratesThe Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 61.4% in July. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 55.1% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in July to 10.2%.

This was above consensus expectations of 1.58 million jobs added, and May and June were revised up by 18,000 combined.

I'll have much more later …

August 6 COVID-19 Test Results

Note: There are some states having reporting problems.

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 731,700 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 54,184 positive tests.

See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

COVID-19 Tests per Day Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 7.4% (red line).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

Goldman July Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:
We estimate nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +1.0mn in July after +4.8mn in June (consensus is +1.5mn). ... we believe education seasonality could boost July payroll growth by as much as 500-750k

We estimate the unemployment rate declined by 0.4pp to 10.7%
emphasis added

July Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 1.58 million non-farm payroll jobs (+1.47 million private sector), and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 10.5%.

The usual indicators are somewhat useless again this month due to the ongoing pandemic.   Some states are opening up, while others have closed bars, indoor restaurants, and some other businesses.   In states with rising cases, economic activity appears to have flattened or declined in July.

The ADP employment report showed a gain of 167,000 private sector jobs, far below the consensus estimate of 1.5 million jobs.

The ISM manufacturing employment index increased in July to 44.3% from 42.1% in June, but still well below 50.   This would suggest around 50,000 manufacturing jobs lost in July - although ADP showed 10,000 manufacturing jobs added.

The ISM Services employment index increased in July to 42.1% from 43.1% in June, and is still well below 50. This would suggest around 140,000 service jobs lost in July. Combined, the ISM surveys suggest around 190,000 private sector jobs lost in July.

The weekly claims report shows a high number of initial claims during the BLS reference week, although the number of continuing claims dropped significant from the June reference to the July reference week (suggesting people going back to work).

There are other indicators that analysts are looking at - like Homebase hours worked and the experimental Household Pulse Survey.  The Homebase data suggests employment was mostly flat, and the Pulse Survey might suggest a significant decline in employment.

IMPORTANT: The employment report will probably show a large increase in state and local government education hiring.  This is because of a quirk in the seasonal adjustment due to educators being let go earlier than usual this year due to the pandemic, see: State and Local Government Education Employment will Increase Sharply in July, Seasonally Adjusted

Also, the Decennial Census hired around 27,000 temporary workers that will show up in government hires.

• Conclusion: There is a wide range of estimates for the July report.   I expect to see a large number of government jobs added (mostly due to a statistical quirk - but also due to temporary Decennial Census hiring).   I'll take the over on government jobs added, but the under on private sector jobs (consensus is 1.47 million private sector - and possibly even a negative private sector number).

No matter what the July report shows, there will be millions and millions of people unemployed, and the course of the economy will be determined by the course of the virus.

NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014"

From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt decreased by $34 billion (0.2%) to $14.27 trillion in second quarter of 2020. This marks the first decline since the second quarter of 2014 and is the largest decline since the second quarter of 2013. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. This latest report reflects consumer credit data as of June 30, 2020.

Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—rose by $63 billion in the second quarter to $9.78 trillion. Mortgage originations, which include mortgage refinances, reached $846 billion, the highest volume seen since the refinance boom in 2013. Origination credit scores for mortgages increased notably in the second quarter of 2020.

Reflecting the sharp decline in overall consumer spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related social distancing orders, credit card balances fell sharply by $76 billion in the second quarter. This was the steepest decline in card balances seen in the history of the data. Auto and student loan balances were roughly flat in the second quarter. In total, non-housing balances (including credit card, auto loan, student loan, and other debts) saw the largest drop in the history of this report, with an $86 billion decline.

Aggregate delinquency rates dropped markedly in the second quarter, reflecting increased uptake of forbearances, which were provided by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Note that accounts in forbearance are typically marked as current on consumer credit reports.
emphasis added
Total Household Debt Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt decreased in Q2.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013.

From the NY Fed:
Aggregate household debt balances declined by $34 billion in the second quarter of 2020, a 0.2% drop, and now stand at $14.27 trillion. The drop was the first decline since the second quarter of 2014 and the largest decline since the second quarter of 2013. Balances are $1.59 trillion higher, in nominal terms, than the previous peak (2008Q3) of $12.68 trillion and 27.9% above the 2013Q2 trough.
Delinquency Status The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate decreased sharply in Q2.  From the NY Fed:
Aggregate delinquency rates dropped markedly in the second quarter, reflecting an uptake in forbearances (provided by both the CARES Act and voluntarily offered by lenders), which protect borrowers’ credit files from the reporting of skipped or deferred payments. Note the difference that accounts in forbearance might be categorized as delinquent on the lender’s book, but typically as current on the credit reports. As of June 30, 3.6% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 1.0 percentage point decrease from the fourth quarter of 2019. Of the $512 billion of debt that is delinquent, $372 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”, which includes some debts that have been removed from lenders books but upon which they continue to attempt collection).

The uptake in forbearances is notably visible in the delinquency rate transitions for mortgages. The share of mortgages in early delinquency that transitioned ‘to current’ spiked to 61.1% reflecting that many of those became forborne, while there was a decline in the share of mortgages in early delinquency whose status worsened during the second quarter of 2020. There were only 24,000 new foreclosure starts; given that homeowners with federally backed mortgages are currently protected from foreclosure through a moratorium in the CARES Act.
There is much more in the report.

Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory down 35% YoY

This report is for closed sales in July; sales are counted at the close of escrow, so the contracts for these homes were mostly signed in May and June.

The Las Vegas Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices remain in record territory despite pandemic; LVR housing statistics for July 2020
LVR reported a total of 4,025 existing local homes, condos and townhomes were sold during July. Compared to the same time last year, July sales were up 5.3% for homes, but down 3.3% for condos and townhomes. Sales were up significantly from the previous month.
...
By the end of July, LVR reported 4,806 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s down 38.4% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,581 properties listed without offers in July represented a 15.2% drop from one year ago.

Despite the coronavirus crisis, the number of so-called distressed sales in July remained near historically low levels. The association reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 1.2% of all existing local property sales in July. That compares to 2.0% of all sales one year ago, 2.9% two years ago and 6.4% three years ago.
emphasis added
1) Overall sales were up 3.7% year-over-year to 4,025 in July 2020 from 3,883 in July 2019.

2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down from a year ago, from a total of 9,752 in July 2019 to 6,387 in July 2020. Note: Total inventory was down 34.5% year-over-year.   And months of inventory is still low.

3) Low level of distressed sales.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,186,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending August 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,186,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 1,434,000 to 1,435,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,337,750, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,368,500 to 1,368,750.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised up.

This does not include the 655,707 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 1,337,750.

Initial weekly claims was below the consensus forecast of 1.415 million initial claims, however the previous week was revised up slightly.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 16,107,000 (SA) from 16,951,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 12,956,478 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.

August 5 COVID-19 Test Results

The number of tests per day has been declining. It is not clear if this is a testing problem or a reporting problem.

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 664,219 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 51,825 positive tests.

See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

COVID-19 Tests per Day Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 7.5% (red line).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales

The relatively low gasoline prices made me take another look at the mix of vehicles being sold.

This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through July 2020.

Vehicle SalesClick on graph for larger image.

Over time the mix has changed toward more and more towards light trucks and SUVs.

Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse.

The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 76% in July 2020.

ISM Services Index increased to 58.1% in July, Employment Index Declined

The July ISM Services index was at 58.1%, up from 57.1% in June. The employment index decreased to 42.1%, from 43.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2020 Services ISM Report On Business®
July 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 67.2%; New Orders Index at 67.7%; Employment Index at 42.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 55.2%

Economic activity in the Services sector (formally non-manufacturing sector) grew in July for the second month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "The Services PMI™ registered 58.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the June reading of 57.1 percent. This reading represents growth in the services sector for the second straight month after contraction in April and May, preceded by a 122-month period of expansion.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.2 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from June's reading of 57.5 percent. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases. The higher readings for supplier deliveries in the three months prior to June were primarily a product of supply problems related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Supplier deliveries are now more closely correlating to the current supply and demand.
emphasis added
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the ISM services index (started in January 2008) and the ISM services employment diffusion index.

The employment index showed ongoing weakness.

Trade Deficit decreased to $50.7 Billion in June

From the Department of Commerce reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.7 billion in June, down $4.1 billion from $54.8 billion in May, revised.

June exports were $158.3 billion, $13.6 billion more than May exports. June imports were $208.9 billion, $9.5 billion more than May imports.
emphasis added
U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

Both exports and imports increased in June.

Exports are down 24% compared to June 2019; imports are down 20% compared to June 2019.

Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months.

Oil imports averaged $35.34 per barrel in June, up from $27.55 per barrel in May, and down from $58.72 in June 2019.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $28.4 billion in June, from $29.8 billion in June 2019.

ADP: Private Employment increased 167,000 in July

From ADP:
Private sector employment increased by 167,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

“The labor market recovery slowed in the month of July,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We have seen the slowdown impact businesses across all sizes and sectors.”
This was well below the consensus forecast for 1.25 million private sector jobs added in the ADP report.

The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 1.36 million non-farm payroll jobs added in July.

Special Note: The BLS report includes government jobs, and State and Local government will increase sharply due to a Seasonal Adjustment quirk. Also the Census Bureau hired 27.5 thousand temp workers, for the Decennial Census, between the reference week in June and the reference week in July.

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