Angry Bear

Weekly Indicators for October 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The stars are aligning for the recovery from the present slowdown in the longer term. But in the meantime, the present and short term data is still soft. As usual, clicking over and […]

Scenes from the September jobs report

Scenes from the September jobs report I shared the best good news from the September jobs report released last Friday: there’s a good argument that the economy has reached “full employment,” although we could do even better if real wages improved more. Today let’s look at the bad news, which comes from examining the leading […]

Eeeeeeeeemoluments And How Bad Bruce Springsteen Is

Eeeeeeeeemoluments And How Bad Bruce Springsteen Is I have almost never watched through a Trump speech to one of his rallies, but I was curious what he would say at the first one after the impeachment inquiry officially started, which he held a few days ago in Minneapolis, supposedly trying to take MN away from […]

August JOLTS report: nearly all employment measures now neutral

August JOLTS report: nearly all employment measures now neutral The JOLTS report for August showed a decline in all metrics m/m as well as a slowing trend overall. To review, because this series is only 20 years old, we only have one full business cycle to compare. During the 2000s expansion: Hires peaked first, from December […]

The road to dictatorship is depressingly predictable. 

Interesting stuff from the One Handed Economist “The road to dictatorship is depressingly predictable. Once power is stolen, the problem is to keep it. Anyone who might develop a separate power base must be struck down. Eradicate rivals, rule through force and fear. Trust no one, particularly family, friends and the army. Keep everyone on their […]

Medicare for All

Medicare for All The abstract for “Does Medicare Coverage Improve Cancer Detection and Mortality Outcomes?” by Rebecca Mary Myerson, Reginald Tucker-Seeley, Dana Goldman and Darius N. Lakdawalla: Medicare is the largest government insurance program in the United States, providing coverage for over 60 million people in 2018. This paper analyzes the effects of Medicare insurance on health for a group […]

Extremely Implausible Deniability

“The U.S. ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland,” is a law abiding citizen and also a team player. He has been subpoenaed and will have to testify about Trump and Ukraine. Also he seems to be very well understood by some guy who is talking and talking and talking with Washington Post Reporters Aaron […]

Real average and aggregate wages for September

Real average and aggregate wages for September Now that we have the September inflation reading, let’s take a look at real wage growth. First of all, nominal average hourly wages in September increased +0.2%, while consumer prices were unchanged. As a result, after rounding, real average hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased +0.1%. This translates […]

From Intellectual to influencer

Interesting stuff from the One Handed Economist From Intellectual to influencer: “In the case of the public intellectual, the institution was the academy and the role was thinking. In the case of the public influencer, the institution is the corporation and the role is marketing. The shift makes sense. Marketing, after all, has displaced thinking […]

Closing The Open Skies

Closing The Open Skies Trump’s stonewalling on impeachment is the top story, snore.  Lower down and more important is Trump allowing Turkey to attack the Kurds in Syria with the support of Russia. Even GOP senators do not like this and ISIS fighters may get out. But, heck, those will go to Europe, and unlike […]

Drain the Ukrainian Swamp

Drain the Ukrainian Swamp Trump’s latest excuse for withholding arms for the Ukrainian government to defend itself against Putin’s invitations so he can extract dirt against the Bidens is what again? Oh yea – he wants to root out corruption. REALLY? OK – start with this: KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — As Rudy Giuliani was pushing Ukrainian […]

Resurrected Protester

This is news: Jane Fonda Arrested While Protesting in D.C. Not particularly a news outlet (Hollywood Reporter – Ryan Parker reporting) I would read but, they have it out front and center in reporting on Ms. Fonda protesting about “the industries that are destroying our planet for profit.” “I will be on the Capitol every […]

Elisabeth Warren Has a Plan for America First

I plan to vote for Warren in the primary and general election, but I am not thrilled by all aspects of her plan for economic patriotism. I also have doubts about medicare for all (good policy bad politics) and forgiving student debt (good politics bad policy). Trying to be brief and actually get to the […]

Binyamin Applebaum vs Economics 101 ism

I haven’t Applebaum’s book, just a column. I think the elite embrace of economics 101 occurred throughout the rich world. Certainly including Massimo D’Alema (Italian Prime Minister raised as a communist). In any case, I recognise the type over here in Rome (not just in my home town Washington DC) The book is “The Economists’ […]

Trump’s Attack on Seniors and Medicare

It is a given, Trump’s new executive order  is calling for “market-based” pricing or whatever the market will bear pricing. to replace Medicare set pricing. Trump sees a conflict between Medicare and the market. Well he is right; but, his solution ll only aggravate the problem of costs.  It will drive up costs for everyone […]

Does France Have an “Exorbitant Privilege”?

by Joseph Joyce Does France Have an “Exorbitant Privilege”? The U.S. has long been accused of using the international role of the dollar to exercise an “exorbitant privilege.” The term, first used by French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, refers to the ability of the U.S. to finance its current account deficits and acquire foreign […]

Mind F*K, Cambridge Analytica

I am posting this Fresh Air interview of Christopher Wylie and his book about Cambridge Analytica here because I strongly feel that the subject matter is not getting enough attention. The way the technology Mr Wylie worked with was applied by Cambridge should be viewed as being as dangerous as any weapon humans have devised.  […]

Have we finally reached “full employment”?

Have we finally reached “full employment”? As I noted on Friday, the household report – the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor force participation – was particularly good. In fact, the last two months together have been so good that, at least by some measures, we may finally have arrived at “full […]

The Repo Ruckus

The Repo Ruckus This is now about three weeks old news, but it is increasingly clear that it is not clear why it happened or if it will happen again.  There was an outbreak of completely unexpected volatility in the repo market, where in the past the Fed had carried out open market operations, although […]

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