Angry Bear

Tiny Homes – A ‘Fundamental Shift is Occurring’

A recently purchased, rundown, 1 acre mobile home park is redesigned by a tiny house manufacturer into a site for tiny homes. Dan Dobrowolski of “Escape” has been building tiny houses and giving them a place to go for a while. Now during the Corona epidemic Dan Dobrowolski has opened a new development and naming it Escape […]

Fed Deficit Leaps From Under 5% of GDP last year to 15% Now

In the second quarter, the federal deficit leaped from under 5% of GDP last year to near 15% now. This is new record compared to the prior record of almost 10% of GDP that Obama inherited from Bush Yes, falling nominal GDP played a role, but a weak economy always plays a role in setting […]

The UI fiscal stimulus

Apropos my previous post, a new NBER paper by Casado et al estimates the effect of pandemic unemployment benefits on local spending: The FPUC supplement to unemployment insurance of $600 ended at the end of July 2020. Prior to its expiration, the average weekly benefit paid was $812, which would fall to $257, implying a […]

The rational self-interest theory of politics meets Donald Trump

In a semi-rational world, Trump and Senate Republicans would have agreed to a reasonably generous economic relief package along the lines of the HEROES Act approved by the House.  Without an extension of the special pandemic unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments, a humanitarian disaster is inevitable and a macroeconomic disaster a […]

Did July’s headline jobs number miss business closures, and so overcount job gains?

Did July’s headline jobs number miss business closures, and so overcount job gains? A few issues arose with regard to last Friday’s jobs number; in particular, the effect of government jobs in the form of Census and teaching jobs, whether seasonal adjustments are unhelpful at this time; and whether the birth/death model used by the […]

“Executive Order” Versus “Executive Action” Such As A Memorandum

“Executive Order” Versus “Executive Action” Such As A Memorandum  Most of the news media has reported that President Donald J. Trump has signed four “executive orders” involving extending unemployment benefits at a $400 rate, deferring (or ending?) payroll taxes for Social Security (opposed by both parties in Congress), extending a ban on evicting renters, and […]

Topical thread

by rjs Once again, here are the links to this week’s coronavirus news collections, as posted overnight at Econintersect: 09 Aug 2020 – Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 09August 2020 09 Aug 2020 – Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 09August 2020 New coronavirus cases in the US were down another 10% this week, and the week’s virus death toll was down by […]

The 2020 Presidential election nowcast: polling trends favorable to Biden continue

The 2020 Presidential election nowcast: polling trends favorable to Biden continue   Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Let me begin with a reminder that polls are […]

Can A President Appropriate Funds for a Program?

With regard to Trump’s three memos and one Executive Order. We did go through this one time before with the ACA and funding for the Risk Corridor Program as I wrote “Risk Corridor, Healthcare Premiums, Companies Leaving the Exchanges, and Republicans.” The GAO said the President can not appropriate funds for funding of programs. Only […]

An Idea Whose Time Has Come: Make Election Mail Free

Mark Jamison’s commentary on USPO matters have been featured at Angry Bear Blog a number of times over the years. A retired postmaster, Mark Jamison serves as an advisor, resident guru, and a regular contributor to Save the Post Office. Mark’s previous posts concerning the USPO can be found here at “Save The Post Office” […]

Why It’s All Dr. Fauci’s Fault

Photos emerged last week of students, with very few wearing masks, in a crowded hallway in North Paulding High School, in Dallas, Georgia. Dallas, about 45 miles NW of Atlanta, is in Paulding County. Last week, Paulding County recorded 214 new cases of COVID-19 and an infection rate of 1,036 per 100k population. Nearby by […]

Healthcare Workers Union Pushing Medicaid Expansion

Oklahoma If you remember, I wrote about Oklahoma squeaking through its own initiative to expand Medicaid for low-income people. In theory, the state will be in the driver’s seat (mostly) in deciding how much money it will allocate to the program rather than the Federal government. Political interests will have a difficult time killing Medicaid without […]

Elites versus the public on renaming army bases

According to the Washington Post: Half of Americans oppose renaming military bases currently named after Confederate generals, while 42 percent support the changes. Once again there is a significant partisan split, with 81 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of independents opposed and 66 percent of Democrats in favor. A majority of Americans ages 50 and older are opposed […]

Interpol Supports Murder Charge Against MbS

Interpol Supports Murder Charge Against MbS  In today’s Washington Post David Ignatius reports that Interpol refused a request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to extradite Saad Aljabri to Saudi Arabia from Canada in 2017. MbS had been trying to entice Aljabri to return and had arrested his children, who remain arrested despite […]

Initial and continuing jobless claims: back to being “less awful”

Initial and continuing jobless claims: back to being “less awful” This morning’s initial and continued jobless claims resume the trend of “less awful” numbers. New jobless claims fell to under 1,000,000 for the first time on an un-adjusted basis – 984,192, to be specific (gold in the graph below). After seasonal adjustment, they declined 249,000 […]

Team Trump on Susan Rice as Biden’s Running Mate

Team Trump on Susan Rice as Biden’s Running Mate Next to Joe Biden, Susan Rice may be the most qualified person to lead our nation back from the utter disaster created by allowing Donald Trump to pretend to be our President. So what is this from the camp of the Liar-in-Chief? Trump’s aides and allies accuse Rice […]

July jobs report: a very good *relative* gain – perhaps the last

July jobs report: a very good *relative* gain – perhaps the last HEADLINES: 1,763,000 million jobs gained. Together with the gains of May and June, this makes up about 42% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. U3 unemployment rate declined -0.9% from 11.1% to 10.2%, compared with the January low of 3.5%. […]

Necessity of America

If not the US, who? In order to get it right, it is so important that we know what is going on now. In the midst of a pandemic, overpopulated, ever more marginalized by Global Warming, beggared with inequality, and sorely lacking leadership; the world is indeed going to hell in a handbasket. Take a […]