In July, New Residential Single Family Home Sales decreased -0.7%, but June was revised downward, from -1.0% to -2.9%. July's volume, annualized was 298,000 and June's annual sale rate was 300,000. This is a +6.8% increase from a year ago. In July 2010, new single family home sales were 279,000.
These numbers are seasonally adjusted, but also with large error margins, outside the actual reported percentages. Weather can influence sales. For example, the error window, (90% deviation), for the monthly percentage change is ±12.9% and the yearly error margin ±13.5%.
The supply of new homes is now at 6.6 months of inventory, or 165,000, a -26.7% decrease in supply from July 2010.
The median price dropped with the average remaining about the same as last month. In June, the median price was $236,800, whereas July's median price was $222,000. July's average price was $272,300. Below is the monthly median home prices. As you can see the variance is huge, but it looks like 2009 was a bottom.
If one looks at median and average sales prices, they are still way out of alignment with wages and salaries, which are flat for over a decade, even with record low mortgage rates. The median time new homes were for sale was 9.4 months; June was 10 months.
Basically the variance in monthly data is so large, all one can say is new home sales are rolling around in a bottom and not much is going to happen with residential real estate until the unemployment rate returns to 5% or so and demand in the economy picks up.
Calculated Risk compares new home sales to recessionary periods and goes back to 1963 in data comparisons.