inventories

Factory Orders Jump by 1.8% for November 2013

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders increased 1.8% for November.  Without transportation equipment, new orders increased 0.6%.  October showed a drop in factory orders by -0.5%.  For Q4, factory orders are starting to shape up and the signs point to increased economic demand.

Durable Goods Shoots Way Up, 3.5% New Order Gain for November 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October.   The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods.  New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November  This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline.   Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.

 

Durable Goods, Inventories and Q3 GDP

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders decreased by -2.0% for October 2013 after a 4.1% increase in September.   The decline was mainly aircraft as transportation durable goods new orders by themselves dropped -5.9%.  Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%.  We also estimate Q3 GDP will be revised upward to 3.2% on inventories.

 

Factory Orders Increase 1.7% for September 2013

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders increased 1.7% for September.  Without transportation equipment, new orders decreased -0.2%.  August showed an overall -0.1% decline in new orders whereas July had a -2.8% plunge.  For Q3 factory orders looks none too good.

ISM Services Index Slows - NMI 54.4% for September 2013

The September 2013 ISM Non-manufacturing report shows the overall index decreased by -4.2 percentage points, to 54.4%.  The NMI is also referred to as the services index and the decrease indicates slower growth for the service sector.  The business activity index dropped by -7.1 percentage points to 55.1%.  Both indexes are still above June 2013 levels.

 

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.

ISM Services Index - NMI 56.0% for July 2013

The July 2013 ISM Non-manufacturing report shows the overall index increased, 3.8 percentage points, to 56.0%.  The NMI is also referred to as the services index and the increase indicates faster growth for the service sector.  The business activity index soared by 8.7 percentage points to 60.4%, a high not seen since December 2012.

 

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