The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion. The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision. We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.
Q3 2013 real GDP came in at 2.8% Changes in business inventories saved the day as did less of an increase in imports. Fixed investment also increased. Government spending declines were about the same as Q2, yet local governments increased spending. Consumer spending was less growth than Q2, only about 37% of this quarter's GDP.
The U.S. August 2013 monthly trade deficit barely budged from last month, a 0.4% increase and now stands at -$38,803 billion. America still runs a surplus in services, now at $19.417 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$58.220 billion.
The U.S. July 2013 monthly trade deficit increased 13.3% to $39.147 billion and as expected. Overall exports decreased -0.6% while imports increased by 1.6%. The real news is the monthly China trade deficit just hit a new all time high of $30.1 billion.
Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier. The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change. Unfortunately this is a fluke.
The U.S. June 2013 monthly trade deficit cliff dove -22.4% from last month to $34.2 billion. This is the smallest trade deficit since October 2009 when the world was plunged into a global recession. A combination of a dramatic drop in oil imports along with solid U.S. exports in fuel oil, capital goods and jewelry was the reason for the deficit decline. Q2 GDP should be revised upward past 2.0% as shown below.
The U.S. March 2013 monthly trade deficit decreased 11% to $38.8 billion. U.S. exports decreased $1.7 billion or -0.9%. Imports declined by $6.5 billion, a -2.8% decrease. Expect an upward revision on the trade component to Q1 GDP, assuming prices were stable.
The U.S. January 2013 monthly trade deficit increased 16.2% to $44.45 billion after December's -20.9% trade deficit implosion. This month is all about oil imports and we suspect Hurricane Sandy potentially affected imports in December and why the wild swings. December had the lowest petroleum related imports since August 2009.
The U.S. December 2012 monthly trade deficit imploded by -20.7% to $38.54 billion. This is the lowest monthly trade deficit since January 2010 when global trade was still affected by the recession. We estimate Q4 GDP will be revised significantly upward as a result.
Q4 2012 real GDP contracted by -0.1%. Inventory investment nose dived, but was not the lone culprit for economic contraction. Exports plunged and took -0.81 real GDP percentage points along with it. Government spending cliff dove and hacked off -1.33 percentage points from 4th quarter gross domestic product as Federal Defense spending declined 22.2% from Q3.
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