contagion

You've Been Warned!

europestormYou've Been Warned. So says the European Central Bank about an impending collision between the never ending European debt crisis and Europe's increasingly slowing economies.

Risks to euro area financial stability increased considerably in the second half of 2011, as the sovereign risk crisis and its interplay with the banking sector worsened in an environment of weakening macroeconomic growth prospects. Indeed, several key risks identified in the June 2011 Financial Stability Review (FSR) materialised after its finalisation. Most notably, contagion effects in larger euro area sovereigns gathered strength amid rising headwinds from the interplay between the vulnerability of public finances and the financial sector. Euro area bank funding pressures, while contained by timely central bank action, increased markedly in specific market segments, particularly for unsecured term funding and US dollar funding.

Here's the money shot statement from the ECB. Things are worse than right after Lehman Brother's, the OMG Economic Armageddon global meltdown almost, collapse:

The transmission of tensions among sovereigns, across banks and between the two intensified to take on systemic crisis proportions not witnessed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago.

domino
Here come the dominoes in the form of global economic malaise. Contagion is when one nation's economic disaster spills over and affects the globe. That's the United States folks.

Europe's Economic Implosion Heats Up

Europe is imploding. Today S&P cut Belgium's credit rating to AA:

S&P projects Belgium will end 2011 with general government debt at around 93% of gross domestic product in net terms, and at around 97% of GDP in gross terms.

italy 2yr bond 11/25/11
Italian bond yields hit 7.8% and that's a 14 year high for borrowing costs and a doubling in a matter of days. Unlike the Fed, Italy cannot print up more Euros either to take care of their problem.

The Italian Treasury paid 6.504 percent to auction 8 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of the debt, almost twice the 3.535 percent a month ago and the highest since August 1997. Italy’s two-year bonds yielded a euro-era record 7.83 percent, almost 50 basis points more than 10-year notes.

Yesterday Moody's cut Hungary to junk status. Junk means not ready for prime time, or investment.