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US oil supplies at a 13½ year low; total oil + products supplies at a 95 mo low

Submitted by rjs on March 27, 2022 - 10:58pm

US oil supplies are at a 13½ year low, but oil exports are at a 8 month high; SPR is at a 19½ year low after biggest draw since August 2011; gasoline exports are at a 39 month high; distillate supplies are at a 95 month low; total oil + products supplies also at a 95 month low after across the board drawdowns

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GDP revised to 7.0% growth for the 4th Quarter 2022

Submitted by rjs on March 26, 2022 - 4:53am

The Second Estimate of our 4th Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 7.0% rate in the quarter, revised from the 6.9% growth rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as slower growth of personal consumption of services and of exports than was previously estimated was more than offset by greater growth of personal consumption of goods, fixed investment, and a smaller contraction of government....in current dollar

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Trump Does Right On H-1B Reform

Submitted by Norm Matloff on November 2, 2020 - 3:22pm

In the 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump promised to reform the H-1B work visa program. That should have been the least controversial of his plans, as the visa has long been recognized by both major parties as having major problems. Almost all the major candidates in 2016 — Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Clinton and Sanders — were critical of the program.

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July PCE up at a 36.6% Rate from 2nd quarter, suggesting a "V" shaped recovery

Submitted by rjs on August 31, 2020 - 9:52pm

To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare July's real PCE to the real PCE of the 3 months of the second quarter. When we compare July's inflation adjusted PCE of 12,778.2 billion to the 2nd quarter’s real PCE of 11,819.6 billion, we find that July’s real PCE has grown at a 36.605% annual rate from the 2nd quarter. 

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Global oil output surplus was at 8.6 million barrels per day in May, despite OPEC cut of 6.3 million bpd

Submitted by rjs on June 22, 2020 - 3:16pm

Wednesday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's June Oil Market Report, which covers OPEC & global oil data for May, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation during the first month of the two month agreement between OPEC, the Russians, and other oil producers to cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day from an elevated October 2018 baseline.

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March global oil surplus at 17.7 million barrels per day; 2nd qtr surplus to be at 6.2 million bpd despite OPEC-led cuts

Submitted by rjs on April 22, 2020 - 12:31pm

Thursday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's April Oil Market Report, which gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation in March, after the breakdown of OPECs agreement to cut oil production in the first quarter, when Saudi and its allies were engaged in an oil price war against the Russians and US shale, but before last week's agreement to cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day.

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OPEC report shows July's global oil output was two million barrels per day short of demand

Submitted by rjs on August 19, 2019 - 10:47am

This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data). As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t read the entire report (100+ pages)

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2nd Quarter GDP Down a Record 32.9% After Revisions From 2015 to Present

Submitted by rjs on August 3, 2020 - 5:23pm

The 5 year annual growth rate of personal consumption was revised down from 2.8% to 2.7%, the 5 year annual growth rate of private investment was revised up from 2.2% to 2.5%, the annual growth rate of exports was revised from 1.1% to 1.3%, the annual growth rate of imports was revised from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the growth of government investment and consumption was revised to a 1.9% rate from the 1.8% rate that had been indicated by GDP reports prior to this revision...

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OPEC's February Oil Market Report showed that the global oil glut is growing again

Submitted by rjs on February 26, 2018 - 12:30pm

Since the media largely missed what the data from OPEC's February Oil Market Report (covering January OPEC & global oil data) actually showed, and since Saudi jawboning about oil supply and demand in advance of the Aramco IPO has been keyed to keeping oil prices higher, we'll take a quick look at that report, which is available as a free download.

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May PCE up 8.2%, but 2 Months PCE Still Subtracts 29.06 Percentage Points from 2nd Quarter GDP

Submitted by rjs on June 29, 2020 - 1:43pm

The May report Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.

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One cold snap uses 11.5% of US natural gas supplies; 8 more weeks like that and our gas storage will be totally empty

Submitted by rjs on January 15, 2018 - 2:47am

The cold week that we saw at the beginning of this month set quite a stunning record for US natural gas supplies, and put an exclamation point on our concerns about the natural gas that we're exporting.  In the first week of the new year, the demand for natural gas was so great that we had to use nearly eleven and a half percent of all the natural gas that was in storage in the US, in addition to everything that was produced by US wells during the week, to meet the needs of heating, industry, power generation, and exports. 

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A Mind-blowing Bad April Unemployment Report

Submitted by Robert Oak on May 8, 2020 - 9:59am

The unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 14.7%. That is a 10.3 percentage point jump in a month and a record since the government has been keeping labor statistics, 1948.  While the jump is directly attributable to the Coronavirus, the decline in jobs is across the board.  Worse, the damage from Covad-19 is starting to be permanent.  It's so bad the graphs cannot adequately display the unemployment horror due to the scale.

 

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OPEC oil output at a 6 month low; global oil output at a 12 month high

Submitted by rjs on December 18, 2017 - 11:52am

We’re going to start by reviewing OPEC's December Oil Market Report (covering November OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Wednesday of last week, and which is now available as a free download.  The first table from this report that we'll look at is from page 64 of that OPEC pdf, and it shows oil production in thousands of barrels per day for each of the current OPEC members over the recent years, quarters and months, as the column headings indicate. 

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Durable Goods Nosedives in Advance Report

Submitted by Robert Oak on April 24, 2020 - 3:38pm

The Durable Goods advance report shows the impact Covad-19 is starting to have on the economy.  New orders dropped by -14.4% as transportation orders plunged 41% in a month.  Shipments also were negative with a -4.5% drop.  The airline industry is obviously decimated as the nondefense new orders for aircraft and parts sank by a whopping -295.7%!

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