US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 16th indicated that after a big drop in our oil imports and a big decrease in those mysterious oil supplies that could not be accounted for, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 5th time in 6 weeks, and for the 16th time in the past 35 weeks, despite another sizable release of oil from the SPR.
In current dollars, our fourth quarter GDP grew at a 6.51% annual rate, increasing from what would work out to a $25,723.9 billion annual rate in the 3rd quarter to a $26,132.5 annual rate in the 4th quarter, with the headline 2.9% annualized rate of increase in real output arrived at after annualized inflation adjustments averaging 3.5%, aka the GDP deflator, were computed from the price changes of the GDP components and applied to their current dollar change.
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 22nd indicated that despite another large oil withdrawal from the SPR, increased production from our wells, and a refinery slowdown, we still needed to withdraw oil from our stored commercial crude supplies for the 4th time in 6 weeks, and for the 21st time over the past 35 weeks, mostly because of another big increase in our oil exports.
Our trade deficit fell 21.0% in November, the largest one month drop since the 2009 recession, as both the value of our exports and the value of our imports decreased, but the value of our imports decreased by quite a bit more.
Tuesday of the past week saw the release of OPEC's July Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for June, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation at a time when Chinese demand was curtailed by restrictive Covid lockdowns, while the supply of Russian oil was curtailed by sanctions imposed by the West
US oil supplies are at a 13½ year low, but oil exports are at a 8 month high; SPR is at a 19½ year low after biggest draw since August 2011; gasoline exports are at a 39 month high; distillate supplies are at a 95 month low; total oil + products supplies also at a 95 month low after across the board drawdowns
In the 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump promised to reform the H-1B work visa program. That should have been the least controversial of his plans, as the visa has long been recognized by both major parties as having major problems. Almost all the major candidates in 2016 — Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Clinton and Sanders — were critical of the program.
The Third Estimate of our 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday included an annual revision, which in this year's case revised GDP data from first quarter of 2017 through the first quarter of 2022, resulting in revisions to GDP, GDP by industry, gross domestic income, and related components.
Wednesday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's June Oil Market Report, which covers OPEC & global oil data for May, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation during the first month of the two month agreement between OPEC, the Russians, and other oil producers to cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day from an elevated October 2018 baseline.
Our economy shrunk at a 0.9% rate in the 2nd quarter, a second consecutive contraction, as greater personal consumption of services and an increase in exports were more than offset by lower personal consumption of goods, a decrease in fixed investment and weaker investment in inventories, which subtracted more than 2 percent from GDP growth....
Thursday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's April Oil Market Report, which gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation in March, after the breakdown of OPECs agreement to cut oil production in the first quarter, when Saudi and its allies were engaged in an oil price war against the Russians and US shale, but before last week's agreement to cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day.
The Second Estimate of our 4th Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 7.0% rate in the quarter, revised from the 6.9% growth rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as slower growth of personal consumption of services and of exports than was previously estimated was more than offset by greater growth of personal consumption of goods, fixed investment, and a smaller contraction of government....in current dollar
This week we're going to review OPEC's August Oil Market Report (covering July OPEC & global oil data). As you’ll see, it shows there was a large shortfall in the amount of oil produced in July, a story that doesn’t seem to be being told elsewhere, as even the analysts don’t read the entire report (100+ pages)
To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare July's real PCE to the real PCE of the 3 months of the second quarter. When we compare July's inflation adjusted PCE of 12,778.2 billion to the 2nd quarter’s real PCE of 11,819.6 billion, we find that July’s real PCE has grown at a 36.605% annual rate from the 2nd quarter.
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