Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization - A Contraction is a Contraction

The spin just keeps on coming. Bloomberg on today's industrial production 0.4% contraction:

Industrial production shrank less than forecast and a New York regional factory gauge showed the smallest contraction in more than a year, signaling manufacturing is on the verge of stabilizing.

Folks, here is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production & Capacity release:

Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in June after having fallen 1.2 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, output fell at an annual rate of 11.6 percent, a more moderate contraction than in the first quarter, when output fell 19.1 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 0.6 percent in June, with declines at both durable and nondurable goods producers. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 0.5 percent in June, and the output of utilities increased 0.8 percent. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined in June to 68.0 percent, a level 12.9 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.

Get that? Capacity utilization is at an all time low of 68.

industrial production june 2009 5 years


capacity utilization, total industry, june 2009


manufacturing capacity, seasonally adjusted (yr.) June 2009

When the statistics are showing to me that the flood has stopped rushing in, but the water is still coming, is not a recovery. These numbers are horrific and they imply the land is under water. Only when we get an expansion from these horrible lows will it be appropriate to use the "R" word.

Subject Meta: 

Forum Categories: 

This is the road to industrial extinction.

That's a quote from Alan Tonelson, who focuses on manufacturing, has a new post up affirming what this working stiff noticed but with much more detail...

Folks, we need a manufacturing policy ASAP!