Most readers on this site know initial weekly unemployment claims is a volatile number, subject to revisions. Tomorrow the monthly unemployment report will be released. Regardless the below graph shows a disturbing trend in weekly initial unemployment claims, they simply are not going down to pre-recession levels. The 4-week average on initial unemployment claims is as high as March 2010.
This week the number increased 13,000 to 472,000. A general rule of thumb is weekly initial unemployment claims need to drop below 400,000 for job growth to occur.
In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 472,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 459,000. The 4-week moving average was 466,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 463,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending June 19, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 19 was 4,616,000, an increase of 43,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,573,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,567,500, a decrease of 25,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,592,750.
The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.077 million.
Notice the insured unemployment rate. There are now 1.3 million who are no longer counted due to the Senate's (GOP), refusal to pass the unemployment insurance benefit extension. Notice in that bill there were corporate international tax codes changes to stop giving corporations money when they offshore outsource your job.
In the week ended June 12, about 4.92 million jobless workers received extended federal benefits, down from 5.30 million. The figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Extended benefits are offered to some workers after they use up eligibility for state unemployment compensation, usually after 26 weeks. Congress has extended benefits for up to 99 weeks in the states hardest hit by the recession.
The extension has already expired, however, and lawmakers have not been able to agree on a proposal to renew it. As result, thousands of workers who have exhausted regular benefits are no longer receiving extra cash. The Labor Department estimates 3.3 million people could lose extended benefits by the end of July if they are not renewed.
Altogether, 9.29 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefits in the week ended June 12.