The job growth projections predict a shortage, that's right a shortage in workers. In a new report:
Assuming a return to healthy economic growth and no change in immigration or labor force participation rates, Barry Bluestone, Dean of the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University, predicts that within the next eight years there could be at least 5 million potential job vacancies in the United States, nearly half of them (2.4 million) in social sector jobs in education, health care, government and nonprofit organizations. The loss in total output could limit the growth of needed services and cost the economy as much as $3 trillion over the five-year period beginning in 2018.
How did the report's authors arrive at this conclusion? First, government analysts expect 14.6 million new nonfarm payroll jobs will be created between 2008 and 2018. Including self-employed workers, family members working in family businesses and workers in farming the total hits 15.3 million new jobs. Read the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment projections.
Next, given the government's projected population growth and current labor force participation rates -- and assuming no major changes in immigration -- there will be about 9.1 million additional workers over the same time period. Taking into account multiple job holders, the total number of jobs expected to be filled is 9.6 million.
Finally, subtracting the projected number of filled jobs from the expected number of new jobs results in a range of 5 million to 5.7 million vacant jobs. However, using projected labor force participation rates - baby boomers are not expected to retire at as high a rate as earlier cohorts of older workers -- there would be 3.3 million to 4 million vacant jobs, according to the report.
I believe there are currently 25 million people needing a good job in the U.S. Secondly, this report assumes people can retire. Last I checked on retirement funds and percentages of those who have any, that's an incorrect assumption.
Finally, they are basing this report on BLS labor projections for 2010-2018.
Now government occupational labor projections has been dead wrong repeatedly and so amusing, the actually number of STEM jobs (that's techie jobs) has declined, much of this has to do with offshore outsourcing and bringing in foreign guest workers.
Projected employment growth is concentrated in the service-providing sector, continuing a long-term shift from the goods-producing sector of the economy. From 2008 to 2018, service-providing industries are projected to add 14.6 million jobs, or 96 percent of the increase in total employment. The 2 industry sectors expected to have the largest employment growth are professional and business services (4.2 million) and health care and social assistance (4.0 million).
Goods-producing employment, as a whole, is expected to show virtually no growth.
While employment in the construction industry is projected to increase by 1.3 million, declines in manufacturing (-1.2 million) and mining (-104,000) will nearly offset this growth. By 2018, the goods-producing sector is expected to account for 12.9 percent of total jobs, down from 17.3 percent in 1998 and 14.2 percent in 2008.
So, it is assumed the U.S. will not manufacture or make anything (negative growth) and even worse, magically tech jobs will dominate even when that projection from the last decade was already proved wrong.
Clearly the BLS and the DOL need to revamp their statistical methods and note the implications! We know bad trade deals are the reason manufacturing has declined in the United States yet they see no possibility we might get any reforms to turn that around?