You see the headlines, you see the cheers. Don't you know the recession is over! Graphs, statistics, tables abound. People argue over margin of error, data points, and debate the great mystery of increased unemployment statistics, then quickly dismiss them as a lagging economic indicator.
But you, down on the ground with the rest of us, say hell no, all of my friends are broke, I can't find a job, I'm in debt, this talk of recovery is bullshit!
You might very well be right and the problem is current statistics appear not to be capturing the true state of GDP, Productivity and thus jobs (in the United States).
Hello everyone, happy Monday to you all on Economic Populist. Today marks the return of a series I had put off for health reasons (actually this is the second attempt, sorry). On this inaugural I would like to focus on the foreign investor. As many readers of my past columns know, Manufacturing Monday has been a staunch advocate of building products here. Primarily focusing on promoting our current captains of industry to open up a shop here instead of say Asia or Mexico. Or in getting new (green) industries going. If they (being foreign countries) are "taking" our jobs, how about us getting some from their companies?
Who can forget those beyond incredible job creation projection numbers of the Stimulus Bill. 3.5 million jobs, 4 million jobs, the promise was high and never mind spending almost a trillion dollars for these jobs. Recently the Council of Economic advisers issued a report on job creation from the Stimulus, at the same time, the White House claimed to have saved 750,000 jobs by August, 2009.
So, what's the catch? There is no real world, real data on the truth of these claims and there may never be.
We still have theoretical calculations on job creation, based on Stimulus spending as a ratio of GDP, and thus indirectly jobs.
Tracking on Congress is like a sing along with 1 million people out of tune and out of sync. So, we'll do our best to give you the latest amendments, bill text and analysis.
The Bill
The bill title is American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
Anyone in denial about the United States and the economy should now get over it.
The unemployment numbers for December came in and it ain't pretty.
The unemployment rate is now 7.2%. This is the largest unemployment jump since 1945, The massive job hemorrhage shows the economy is in free fall.
Also the Congressional Budget Office released it's Budget 2009 Outlook report and it ain't pretty either.
CBO projects that the deficit this year will total $1.2 trillion, or 8.3 percent of GDP
CBO expects federal revenues to decline by $166 billion, or 6.6 percent, from the amount in 2008
An unemployment rate that will exceed 9 percent early in 2010
CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II
It's the start of the new calendar year, the start of a new Presidential administration (well on the 20th actually), and of course the start of the first business quarter. We got in some disturbing, ok that's putting it mildly, some crappy manufacturing news from the gang at ISM. The steel industry, in hopes of restoring some business, initiates a new campaign. Arizona & Michigan are starting a green jobs plans. All this, but first...
The Numbers!
This week's Numbers section actually will also be one our leader story. The latest from the Institute of Supply Management's Manufacturing Survey came in at below what folks were figuring. Now to those new to all this, the ISM Manufacturing Survey is a study of 300 manufacturing firms; the numbers are registered as an index, anything above 50 means expansion in manufacturing, below 50 the opposite.
Damn, talk about a pretty intense week! The auto sector looks like it just...just might get saved. Still, it looks as if the issue of over capacity is being looked on, which means job cuts. Sadly, that seems to be the theme of this week's manufacturing update. Well actually there is something on health care...think of it as "nyceve lite". They say it gets darkest before the light, well this must be a long tunnel then. ISM is saying that '09 will suck as bad as 2008. Well before I dispense with the unfortunates, it's time for the Numbers!
(editor's note: I was planning on publishing this morning, but some major personal business involving a sick wiener dog to one of those emergency vets had to take precedence. )
Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to another edition of Manufacturing Monday...er Tuesday! Originally I wanted to post this on Monday morning, but I wanted to include the latest development from the Boeing SPEEA talks. Outside of this we got news from the steel industry, unfortunately not the good kind. Sticking with steel for a moment, there's an op-ed piece I wish to highlight that I thought you should look at. We have news or alarm bells I should say about pensions. Of course we also have some Green news, some ominous, but some good.
But before we get to those, let's take a look at the Numbers!
President-elect Obama promises to create 2.5 million jobs and has plans for a massive stimulus package costing at least half a trillion dollars if not $1 trillion dollars.
But where exactly would those jobs be created?
Business Week Journalist Michael Mandel asks Can Obama Keep New Jobs at Home? Mandel points out that a massive stimulus might just well go offshore.
Some startling facts in this article:
Imports have risen from the equivalent of 9% of gross domestic product to almost 19%. Even more astonishing, the value of imported goods now is equal to almost 40% of the output of U.S. manufacturing.
Hello everyone, happy Monday to you all on Economic Populist. Today marks the return of a series I had put off for health reasons (actually this is the second attempt, sorry). On this inaugural I would like to focus on the foreign investor. As many readers of my past columns know, Manufacturing Monday has been a staunch advocate of building products here. Primarily focusing on promoting our current captains of industry to open up a shop here instead of say Asia or Mexico. Or in getting new (green) industries going. If they (being foreign countries) are "taking" our jobs, how about us getting some from their companies?
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