Actor Jon Voight To Tell President Trump How To "Fix" Hollywood

Actor Jon Voight and his manager, Steven Paul, are preparing to present President Donald Trump with proposals to boost U.S. film and TV production as soon as this week, according to Bloomberg.

Beyond traditional state tax credits, their plan could include incentives for infrastructure, job training, and tax code changes.

“It’s important that we compete with what’s going on around the world so there needs to be some sort of federal tax incentives,” Paul said. He added that their goal is to curb the current state-by-state competition for productions and bring business back from overseas.

Bloomberg writes that film and TV production has declined in California and across the U.S. as studios cut back and other countries like the UK, Australia, Hungary, and Spain lure projects with tax incentives.

“It’s been very, very difficult here,” Paul said. “We’re feeling the cries of people in town.”

A California bill aiming to more than double state film incentives to $750 million annually is moving through the legislature. Voight, alongside actors Mel Gibson and Sylvester Stallone, was named by President Trump in January as a special ambassador to Hollywood. Scott Karol, president of SP Media Group, said Voight’s team has consulted studio executives, union leaders, and state officials for input.

One proposal could involve extending and expanding Section 181 of the U.S. tax code, which currently allows $15 million in accelerated deductions for productions but is set to expire this year.

Another idea is to incentivize long-term investments like sound stage construction, similar to Netflix’s 10-year deal in New Jersey. Paul, who produced Man With No Past with Voight, said he plans to shift three upcoming films to California and invest in a Los Angeles studio.

* * *

Grab a lighter / flashlight combo and a Knife for free shipping at ZH Store. 

 Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 13:40

'They Lied To Us About Iraq's WMDs, But They've Taken It To Another Level With Ukraine...'; Hitchens

Authored by Peter Hitchens via The Daily Mail,

In my trade I have long grown used to the way governments lie and get others to lie for them. 

It is what they do.

But I have seldom seen such a cloud of lies as we face now. Hardly anyone in this country knows the truth about Ukraine. 

There has been nothing like it since we were all lied to about the Iraq invasion, with bilge about fictional ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction’. The liars were caught out. 

And they learned from it. They learned to lie more skillfully.

Meanwhile, many of those in our society who knew how to challenge such lies died off or retired and were not replaced.

We have never had a debate about the Ukraine crisis which started from the beginning. Did anyone in power ever tell you truthfully how, when or why this war began? No. Did anyone in power explain why Britain, crime blighted, decrepit, rubbish-strewn, rat-infested, broke Britain, had to get involved in it? Never.

You have just been fed propaganda rubbish about ‘democracy’, freedom and an invented Russian menace. Here are some of the lies you have repeatedly been told.

The war, they say, was not provoked. Seldom in history has a war been more provoked.

Russians, nice ones like the liberal, democratic politician Yegor Gaidar, and nasty ones like the bloody despot Vladimir Putin, begged the West to stop trundling its military alliance, Nato, eastwards towards Russia.

ALL Russians, including the great anti-Communist author Alexander Solzhenitsyn, had been shocked and angered when Nato in 1999 abruptly gave up its defensive posture and launched attacks on Yugoslavia – which had not attacked a Nato member.

These protests reached their peak in February 2007, when Putin made a dramatic speech in Munich. He said Nato expansion was ‘a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. We have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended?’

Look, if someone as gaunt as Putin spoke to you like that in a pub late in the evening, you’d take it as a warning that he was seriously riled. And unless you wanted a fight, you’d back off. But we didn’t back off.

US President George W.Bush, the genius who invaded Iraq, deliberately raised the temperature the following year. Can it be that Bush likes wars?

In April 2008, Bush said that Ukraine should be placed on the path towards joining Nato. Even the Guardian, the Liberal Warmonger’s Gazette, conceded that this was ‘likely to infuriate the Kremlin’. And so it did. I suspect we were on the path to war from that moment.

I am always accused, when I say that, of making excuses for Putin. I am not. 

I think he was stupid as well as wrong to be provoked. Wise men ignore provocations. But to claim he was not provoked is just to lie.

Another lie we are repeatedly told is that Russia attacked Georgia later in 2008. But anyone can find, on the web, a 2009 Reuters news agency story headlined ‘Georgia started war with Russia: EU-backed report’.

The dispatch summarises an inquiry by the respected Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini. She had been asked by Brussels to look into that war. That is what she said. But, somehow or other, a lot of Western media outlets failed to find space for it. I still meet supposedly informed people who have never heard of Ms Tagliavini or her report.

And then there is the claim that this is about democracy and freedom. It isn’t. The more the West claims to care for these things, the less it does to help them.

Some examples: 

Ukraine’s elected president was lawlessly overthrown by a mob in 2014. Britain and the USA condoned this shameful event because they preferred the illegal rebels to the elected government. You just can’t do that and pretend to be the guardian of democracy. But then, we aren’t anyway.

You will search in vain for protests against the treatment of Romania’s presidential candidate, in a country that is in the EU and Nato.

CALIN Georgescu’s election was annulled by judges in December when he looked like winning the first round. And he has been banned from standing in the second round – all because he has the wrong kind of politics. And if that’s not enough, look at the West’s deep, shaming silence over the frightening, thuggish behaviour of Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan.

A few weeks ago, this Turkish Putin arrested and jailed Ekrem Imamoglu, an opposition politician who looked likely to beat him at the polls.

Mr Imamoglu joined the many journalists and democrats who already rot in Turkish prisons.

Erdogan has crushed free media, free speech and the freedom to protest. But his country is still allowed to stay in Nato, and Western states have made less noise than an angry vole guarding its nest. They’re scared of Erdogan.

I won’t even try to explain how Germany recently recalled its old, dead parliament to push through laws the newly elected parliament would not pass. This was done to allow the spending of extra billions on the Ukraine war. But I hope you get my drift.

Demand proper debate. Demand the truth. Don’t be dragged into more stupidity, or we will end up with bomb craters as well as potholes.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 12:00

The 51st State Goes To The Polls

By Philip Marey, senior US strategist at Rabobank

For now, Trump’s advisors seem to have talked him out of firing Powell, easing market stress last week. The VIX fell from almost 36 on Monday to 25 by the end of the week. However, as we warned a year ago and last month, the Fed and Trump are on a collision course and we are likely to see further confrontations as the Fed’s cutting cycle is slowed down by the inflationary impact of the tariffs. At a closed door IMF meeting on Friday, Powell is reported to have stressed that central banks must be shielded from politics to ensure they can focus on keeping inflation stable and employment high. While he drew applause for these remarks, his audience can do very little to keep him safe from Trump.

On Saturday, the FOMC’s external communications blackout started. However, Powell has already made clear that May 7-8 is not a live meeting. This also means that we are not going to get Fed reactions to some interesting data points that are scheduled for this week, including Q1 GDP, March PCE inflation and April payrolls and unemployment. 

Week ahead

Today, the Canadians go to the polls. The two largest parties are the Liberals (Mark Carney) and the Conservatives (Pierre Poilievre). Justin Trudeau resigned as Prime Minister of Canada on January 6, following declining poll numbers and the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. Caretaker Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election for today. 

After Trudeau's resignation, Liberal Party support surged from 20% to 43% under Mark Carney, and the Liberals are leading polls for the first time since 2022. Carney's agenda focuses on economic growth, affordability, and global trade, including eliminating the carbon tax, ambitious housing plans, and infrastructure investment. 

 

You will find more infographics at Statista

Poilievre and the Conservatives, with the slogan "Canada first, for a change," aim to lower the lowest income bracket and introduce a tax cut to defer capital gains taxes when reinvesting within Canada, as their campaign gains momentum. 

For more details on the Canadian election, please read the preview of the Canadian elections by Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz. 

Meanwhile, the American interest in Canada has not waned. In an interview with Time magazine, published on Friday, US President Trump repeated his claim on Canada. He said: "I'm really not trolling. Canada is an interesting case.…  I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state."

Tomorrow, we get the US goods trade balance for March, which turned more negative since December due to rising imports that are likely caused by front-loading because of the tariffs. In February, the trade deficit declined a little due to a rise in exports. Trump’s intended reciprocal tariffs are proportional to the trade deficits with the various trading partners, but many are now trying to negotiate their way out of them. Trump expects some results in a few weeks. Keep in mind that the specific part of the reciprocal tariffs (i.e. above the 10% universal tariff) were delayed until early July for most countries.

We also get the Conference Board report on US consumer confidence, which has declined, also because of the tariffs. While the assessment of the present situation has fallen back to levels shortly before the November elections, the expectations index has plummeted to the lowest level since 2013. So American consumers are very pessimistic about the impact of Trump’s policies.

On Wednesday, we get the Australian CPI for March and the Chinese PMIs for April. Eurozone CPI data for April and GDP growth for Q1 are also scheduled, with separate data for individual Eurozone countries.

In the US, the advance estimate of Q1 GDP growth will be published. The consensus expectation is only 0.2% growth (this is at an annualized rate!), a substantial slowdown from 2.4% in the final quarter of last year. Strong imports, likely caused by front-loading the tariffs, have been a major drag on GDP growth in Q1.

US personal income and outlays for March will also be published. This report includes the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer price inflation. The consensus expectation is a decline in headline PCE inflation to 2.2% in March from 2.5% in February. The core PCE deflator is expected to fall to 2.6% from 2.8%, which would suggest continued stickiness. Another data point that the FOMC usually pays attention to is the Employment Cost Index for Q1, which is expected to remain at 0.9%. However, both the ECI and the PCE may now be seen as rearview mirror data points in light of the anticipated inflationary effects from the tariffs.

Finally, the ADP statisticians will publish their estimate of US employment growth in the private sector, which they think is informative regarding Friday’s payrolls. The ADP measure is expected to slow down to 128K in April from 155K in March.

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep the target rate unchanged at 0.50%. However, the BoJ will publish its quarterly outlook, which will extend projections through March 2028.

We also get the US initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 26. They have been moving sideways recently, hovering around the post-2021 average, so they have not been a cause for alarm yet.

The ISM manufacturing report for April will also be published. Last month, the headline index fell below the neutral level again, but remains in the range it has been moving in since 2023. The employment sub-index has been sliding downward, albeit slowly, since 2021 as the Fed has tried to rebalance the labor market. In contrast, the prices paid sub-index has been on the rise since the elections.

On Friday, all eyes will be on the US Employment Report for April, featuring the nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The consensus expectation is a slowdown to 130K in April from 228K in March. This would still be better than the slow first two months of the year. Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are also expected to remain stable at 0.3% month-on-month, which should lead to a modest increase to 3.9% from 3.8% in year-on-year terms. A report like this would certainly not make the Fed’s May meeting a live one. However, the Fed will stay alert for signs of deterioration in the labor market that would warrant a rate cut in June.

Apart from these data points, the daily tariff news will likely move markets.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 11:20

Ukrainian Army Commander Openly Threatens Zelensky: Will 'Regret' Ceding Territory

Russia on Monday made clear that it is sticking by initial demands raised by Moscow at the start of the war in February 2022, after President Putin last week issues statements which appeared open to compromise for the sake of peace talks.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has declared that Russia will never give up its hold over Crimea, as well as the annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. He named as a condition for peace negotiations that Russia's control and sovereignty over these territories is vital and essentially non-negotiable.

"The international recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, the DPR, the LPR, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as part of Russia is another imperative," he said. "All the commitments Kiev assumes must be legally binding, contain enforcement mechanisms and be permanent," Lavrov added.

Image: Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

"Russia proceeds from the premise that Kiev’s non-accession to NATO, as well as reaffirming its neutral and non-aligned status as per the 1990 Declaration on Ukraine’s State Sovereignty - these factors form one of the two pillars for a final settlement to the Ukraine crisis that would meet Russia’s security interests," he continue.

The top Russian diplomat also demanded that Ukraine enact legislation that restores and protects Russian language, culture, and churches and monasteries in Ukraine. Some one-third of the country has long spoken Russian as their first language, and many more know it as a second language.

Zelensky has been waging a state persecution campaign against the largest Orthodox Church in Ukraine, because it has not broken spiritual communion with the Moscow Patriarchate, at times outright seizing monasteries and churches, and arresting bishops and priests. Russian media broadcasts and media have also long been banned.

Lavrov detailed of Moscow's demands, "The second pillar consists of overcoming the legacy of the neo-Nazi regime which took power in Kiev after the February 2014 putsch, including the initiative by its perpetrators to eradicate and cancel, in both physical and legislative terms, everything Russian, be it the Russian language, media, culture, traditions, or the canonical Orthodox faith," as conveyed in TASS.

"Demilitarizing and de-Nazifying Ukraine is also on the agenda, along with lifting sanctions, withdrawing lawsuits and cancelling arrest warrants, as well as returning Russian assets subjected to the so-called freeze in the West," he emphasized.

Of course, there's also the ban on Ukraine ever becoming a member of NATO, which is a key compromise already being offered by the Trump administration.

Again, all of this is essentially identical to the demands articulated by Putin at the very beginning of the full-scale war. President Trump, coming off the brief Rome meeting with Zelensky, thinks he's ready to give up Crimea:

US President Donald Trump has said he thinks Volodymyr Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, despite his Ukrainian counterpart’s previous assertions on the Black Sea peninsula that was annexed by Russia in 2014.

Speaking to reporters at an airport in New Jersey on Sunday a day after meeting with Zelensky at the Vatican, Trump said “Oh, I think so,” in response to a question on whether he thought Zelensky was ready to “give up” the territory.

But is the Ukrainian leader really ready to do this and face attacks - possibly even assassination attempts - from within his own far-right paramilitaries and even army commanders? 

A Ukrainian Army brigade commander openly threatens Zelensky on a Ukrainain TV show.

He warns him not to negotiate with Russia, not to concede territory, or he will "Regret it"

Open threats to the commander in chief from his own troops, Ukraine is a lawless basket case. pic.twitter.com/McN1GjlkIM

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) April 28, 2025

While the common Ukrainian populace is likely more willing to find compromise for the sake of peace, there are still Azov militants and their associates running the show in many places - and their position remains that no compromise whatsoever should be made and the fight must continue, even as Ukrainian forces are being beaten back.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned in a media interview that if Washington imposes more sanctions on Russia, this basically assures more war for years to come. "The minute you start doing that kind of stuff, you're walking away from it, you've now doomed yourself to another two years of war and we don't want to see it happen," he said.

He added: "There is no other country, there is no other institution or organization on the Earth that can bring these two sides together, no one else is talking to both sides but us and no one else in the world can make something like this happen but the president."

* * *

More headlines via Newsquawk... Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Vatican for 15 minutes which Zelensky’s staff said was constructive, covered a lot of ground and they agreed to meet again, while the White House said the meeting was very productive.
• US President Trump said the meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky went well and we'll see what happens in the next days, while Trump is very disappointed with Russia and wants Russian President Putin to stop shooting and reach a deal. Furthermore, Trump said the confines of a deal are there and that Zelensky is calmer now and wants to make a deal, while it was separately reported that President Trump said he thinks Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, according to Al Arabiya.
• US President Trump said there was no reason for Russian President Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns over the last few days which makes him think that Putin doesn’t want to stop the war and is just ‘tapping’ him along, while Trump added too many people are dying and this has to be dealt with differently through banking or secondary sanctions.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Russia and Ukraine are generally closer to a peace deal than in the last three years and a peace deal needs to happen soon, while he added that the US has options to hold responsible those that don’t want a Ukraine peace deal, according to NBC.
• Russian President Putin confirmed Russia’s readiness to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions during a meeting with US envoy Witkoff, according to IFAX.
• Russian President Putin said Kyiv’s adventure in the Kursk region completely failed and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov said Ukrainian saboteurs in Russia’s Belgorod region have been liquidated. Furthermore, Russia’s military commander told Russian President Putin that scattered remnants of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region will be destroyed soon, according to RIA.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia will continue to target sites used by Ukraine’s military, foreign fighters and military instructors sent by Europe, while he added that Russia would be willing to store Iran’s enriched nuclear material if both the US and Iran believe that was useful.
• Ukrainian military said Moscow’s assertion it has ended Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region is not true and operations inside Kursk continue, while its forces are still on active operations in the Belgorod region.
• French President Macron said he had a very positive exchange with Ukrainian President Zelensky and that Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire, while the coalition of the willing will continue working on a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine.
• German Defence Minister Pistorius said US demands for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia are going too far.
• North Korea confirmed troop deployment to Russia and said it will faithfully implement its agreement with Russia, according to Yonhap. Furthermore, South Korea said North Korea's confirmation of Russia troop deployment is an admission of a criminal act and the US State Department noted it is concerned by North Korea's direct involvement in Russia's war in Ukraine, while it added that North Korea's military deployment to Russia and any support provided by Russia to it in return must end.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 11:00

US Crypto Rules Like 'Floor Is Lava' Game Without Lights; Hester Peirce

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

SEC Commissioner and head of the crypto task force, Hester Peirce, says US financial firms are navigating crypto in a way that’s similar to playing the children’s game “the floor is lava,” but in the dark.

“It is time that we find a way to end this game. We need to turn on the lights and build some walkways over the lava pit,” Peirce said at the SEC “Know Your Custodian” roundtable event on April 25.

The lava is crypto, says Peirce

Peirce explained that SEC registrants are forced to approach crypto-related activities like “the floor is lava,” where the aim is to jump from one piece of furniture to the next without touching the ground, except here, touching crypto directly is the lava.

“A D.C. version of this game is our regulatory approach to crypto assets, and crypto asset custody in particular,” she said.

Peirce said that, much like in the game, firms wanting to engage with crypto must avoid directly holding it due to unclear regulatory rules. 

“To engage in crypto-related activities, SEC-registrants have had to hop from one poorly illuminated regulatory space to the next, all while ensuring that they never touch any crypto asset,” Peirce said.

Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission

Peirce said that investment advisers are often unsure which crypto assets qualify as securities, what entities count as qualified custodians, and whether “exercising staking or voting rights” could trigger custody violations.

“The twist in the regulatory version is that it is largely played in the dark: burning legal lava and no lamps to illuminate the way.”

Peirce also said that a broker or ATS that cannot custody or manage crypto assets will struggle to facilitate trading, making it unlikely for a “robust market” to develop.

Echoing a similar sentiment, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda said at the event that as more SEC registrants work with crypto assets, it’s essential that they have access to custodial options that meet legal and regulatory requirements.

Uyeda said the agency should consider letting advisers use “state-chartered limited-purpose trust companies” with the authority to hold crypto assets as qualified custodians.

Meanwhile, the recently sworn-in chair of the SEC, Paul Atkins, said that he expected “huge benefits” from blockchain technology through efficiency, risk mitigation, transparency, and cutting costs.

He reiterated that among his goals at the SEC would be to facilitate “clear regulatory rules of the road” for digital assets, hinting that the agency under former chair Gary Gensler had contributed to market and regulatory uncertainty.

“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump’s administration and Congress to establish a rational fit-for-purpose framework for crypto assets,” said Atkins.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 10:45

Pakistan's Defense Chief Warns Military Incursion By India Is 'Imminent'

After three consecutive days of reports of mutual gunfire at army outposts along the Line of Control (LOC) disputed border area, Pakistan's defense minister declared Monday that a military incursion by India is imminent.

"We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken," Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told Reuters from Islamabad. This confirms Pakistani Army build-up along the border.

Protest against the suspension of Indus Waters Treaty by India, in Karachi, Pakistan, via Reuters.

A severe war of words has been on since last Tuesday's deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir, which saw 26 Indian tourists get executed after the gunmen sought to identify Hindus among the group. The Indian government promptly accused Pakistan of harboring the Islamist terrorists which committed the atrocity, which Islamabad angrily rejected.

The nuclear-armed neighbors have already fought two historic wars over the Kashmir region, and fears are rising that another one may soon be on the horizon - also after both sides have sent military reinforcements to the respective regions they administer. Amid a massive manhunt, India identified two detained suspected militants as Pakistani.

"Asif said India's rhetoric was ramping up and that Pakistan's military had briefed the government on the possibility of an Indian attack," Reuters continues of the defense chief's statements. "He did not go into further details on his reasons for thinking an incursion was imminent."

And very alarmingly, the question of use of nuclear weapons was broached in the interview:

Asif said Pakistan was on high alert and that it would only use its arsenal of nuclear weapons if "there is a direct threat to our existence".

Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s defense minister

The Indian army over the weekend announced there has been "unprovoked" firing "initiated by Pakistan" along the Line of Control (LOC) which divides Kashmir into two. Pakistan in the aftermath of the accusation neither confirmed nor denied.

The New York Times described Saturday that "Pakistani solders fired at an Indian position first and India responded in kind, according to local news reports, which said that "the exchange was brief and that there were no casualties." Precise locations of these live fire incidents have not been disclosed.

Soon after the crisis land borders were been shut, visas and military exchange programs mutually canceled, and a landmark water treaty was suspended. Pakistan blasted India's cancelation of the Indus Water Treaty as an "act of war" and warned it would respond accordingly if water flows are violated among the two rivals' shared rivers.

Unverified videos like the below have been widely circulating online:

Non stop Pakistan military movement to India’s border. pic.twitter.com/tUDsmhhHnI

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 28, 2025

But if gunfire continues to be exchanged between the two militaries, also amid reports that Pakistani visa holders are being promptly booted from the country amid the diplomatic crisis - clashes could accelerate toward open war. 

India's Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah has meanwhile said there must be a "decisive fight against terrorism and its origin." Indian officials have continued to heap accusations that ultimately Islamabad either supports these groups or at least turns a blind eye.

Air Force and army activity along the border ramping up?

Pakistan has activated its Swat & Skardu airbases amid tensions with India. The Airforce were seen conducting sorties today. pic.twitter.com/U5GK17xLAd

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 27, 2025

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 10:25

"Here We Are Again": Federal District Courts Piling On Injunctions To Stop Trump

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Here we are again.” 

Those words of Senior U.S. District Judge William H. Orrick may be the only uncontested line in his opinion this week, enjoining the Trump Administration from withholding federal funds to “sanctuary jurisdictions.”

In President Trump’s first term, efforts to implement sweeping changes on immigration and other issues were met by a slew of injunctions. 

In 2017, one of those orders was from Judge Orrick, an Obama appointee in San Francisco.

Trump has already faced a record number of national injunctions by district courts. 

His administration has objected to forum- and judge-shopping by political opponents by bringing the majority of such challenges in overwhelmingly Democratic states like California.

Such injunctions did not exist at the founding, and only relatively recently became the rage among district court judges. Under President George W. Bush, there were only six such injunctions, which increased to 12 under Obama.

Both Democratic and Republican presidents have complained about district judges tying down presidents like so many judicial Lilliputians. However, when Trump came to office, the taste for national injunctions became a full-fledged addiction. Trump faced 64 such orders in his first term.

When Biden and the Democrats returned to office, it fell back to 14. That was not due to more modest measures. Biden did precisely what Trump did in seeking to negate virtually all of his predecessors’ orders and then seek sweeping new legal reforms. He was repeatedly found to have violated the Constitution, but there was no torrent of preliminary injunctions at the start of his term.

Now, however, with less than 100 days in office, Trump 2.0 has already surpassed that number for the entirety of Biden’s term.

The Supreme Court bears some of the blame for this. Although a majority of justices, including liberal Justice Elena Kagan, have complained about district courts’ issuance of national injunctions, the high court has done little to rein in district court judges. On May 15, the justices are poised to consider the issue in a case involving birthright citizenship. Many hope that the justices will bring what they have consistently failed to supply to lower courts: clarity and finality.

Some judges have already seen their stays lifted by appellate courts. 

However, in just one day this week, three more major injunctions were issued on sanctuary cities, voter registration, and deportations.

Some of these orders appear premature and overbroad. 

Take Judge Orrick’s order. Again, Trump is targeting cities offering sanctuary to unlawful immigrants as imposing high costs on the country, including increasing burdens for federal programs and grants to these cities.

Orrick previously stopped that effort in the first Trump term, and he was affirmed by the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. However, the orders are not identical, and so far no action has been taken against these cities.

Under one of the orders, titled “Protecting the American People against Invasion,” Trump has ordered the attorney general and the secretary of Homeland Security to “evaluate and undertake any lawful actions to ensure that so-called “sanctuary” jurisdictions, which seek to interfere with the lawful exercise of Federal law enforcement operations, do not receive access to Federal funds.”

Orrick noted that the term “sanctuary jurisdiction” was not defined and dismissed the express reservation that such actions can only proceed to the extent that they are allowed under law.

The irony is that the opinion itself is overly broad and imprecise. There are indeed cases limiting the ability of the federal government to “commandeer” states and cities into carrying out federal functions. However, there are also cases upholding the right to withhold federal funds that contravene federal laws and policies.

The operative language in the order is the focus on sanctuary policies that “interfere” or prevent federal enforcement. There must be some accommodation for the federal government in refusing to pay for the rope that it will hang by.

Justice Robert Jackson famously wrote in Terminiello v. City of Chicago that the Constitution cannot be construed as a “suicide pact.” I have never been fond of that quote, which has often been used to justify the curtailment of individual rights. But these cases could bring a new meaning to the quote in immigration cases.

If one accepts the Trump administration’s data, then continued funding of these jurisdictions might be more akin to being forced to pay for your own hit man and then calling it suicide.

There is a reason courts generally wait for these conflicts to become “ripe.” The administration could easily engage in impermissible “commandeering,” but it could also “evaluate and undertake” more focused and defensible withholdings of federal funds. Judge Orrick decided not to wait to find out.

These are difficult questions, but the Supreme Court can reduce these cases by actually ruling with clarity. The court has often left these issues mired in ambiguity, kicking cases like cans down the road for any final resolution.

Consider the order out of the District of Columbia blocking an effort to change federal voting forms to require proof of citizenship. Trump campaigned on the issue, and, according to a Gallup poll, 84 percent of U.S. adults are in favor of requiring voters to show such identification.

Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly barred the federal government from changing the standardized national voter registration form and to have federal voter registration agencies “assess” the citizenship of individuals who receive public assistance before providing them a voter registration form.

Kollar-Kotelly raises good-faith limits on presidents’ ability to regulate elections, a power mainly left to the states. However, this is a policy that does not necessarily impose a new condition on states.

After all, non-citizens are barred from voting in federal elections in all states. Again, there must be some ability of the administration to act to address a national priority in the funding of election reforms and practices. 

The question is whether the court will recognize such a federal interest.

The problem with some of these orders is not that they are without foundation, but that courts appear on a hair-trigger to enjoin the Trump administration on any subject whatsoever. There is a need to deescalate in both branches as we expedite these appeals. We are indeed “here again,” but this is not a good place for anyone.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at the George Washington University Law School. He is the author of best-selling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 10:05

Key Events This Week: Peak Earnings Season, Canada Election, Payrolls, PCE, GDP... And Trade War Goes On

This week will be the first for a while where data and earnings will compete with tariff headlines as it’s a bumper week on this front. According to DB"s Jim Reid, in terms of data the main highlights in the US are payrolls (Friday), core PCE inflation and US GDP (Wednesday), ISM manufacturing (Thursday) and the latest JOLTS and consumer confidence tomorrow.

In Europe flash CPI numbers get released from Spain tomorrow, Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, with the Eurozone aggregate on Friday (our economists’ preview is here). On Wednesday, Q1 GDP reports are due for Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone. In Asia, the focus will be on the BoJ meeting (Thursday - our preview here) and April PMIs in China (Wednesday).

Besides the macro, we get an avalanche of micro as we face the busiest week of Q1 earnings season with corporate reporting centering around results from Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. This will contribute to a whopping 40% of S&P 500 market cap reporting this week. 

It's fair to say that Mag-7 earnings will go a long way to dictating the tone of the week, and perhaps quarter, now that the worst of tariffs appears to be behind us. As Jim Reid mentioned last week, remember that before Liberation Day the main theme bubbling in the background was the Mag-7 underperforming due to DeepSeek, worries about extreme levels of Capex needed to power AI forward, valuations and a disappointing Q4 reporting season around the end of January. Three months on we'll see what earnings look like.

Elsewhere we see the federal election in Canada today. Remember the ruling Liberal Party were frequently 25% behind in the polls in early-mid January even after Trudeau had announced his resignation as leader. However after the "51st state" rhetoric and aggressive tariffs, the rally round the flag movement has propelled the Liberals into a 3-4pp lead in current poll of polls which if replicated today would likely give them a small majority. So a remarkable turnaround. 

Elsewhere in politics, Wednesday will mark President Trump’s first 100 days in office. So expect lots of reflections on this landmark. The UK holds local elections on Thursday with the main point of interest being how well the populist Reform Party does given they have recently edged ahead of the ruling Labour Party in national polls.

So its fair to say it will be a busy week. 

Let's go into more detail on some of the main data points. Firstly, in terms of payrolls, DB economists forecast that headline (+125k forecast vs. +228k previously) and private (+125k vs. +209k) payrolls will mean revert after a strong March, particularly within the leisure/hospitality and retail sectors. The bank's econ team point out that March and April can get whipped around due to the timing of Easter and school spring breaks. Unemployment should remain steady at 4.2% though.

Wednesday's advance Q1 GDP will be interesting as the consensus suggests only +0.4% annualized growth in the quarter (+1.1% expected at DB vs. +2.4% in Q4) so that will raise some concerns if it materializes. At the same time DB sees March personal income (+0.5% DB vs. +0.4% last month) and spending (+0.6% DB vs. +0.4%) data. This will also contain the latest reading on the core PCE deflator (+0.1% vs. +0.4%) which is expected to be on the softer side this month. This will be welcome but remember this is all largely pre-tariffs.

The day by day week ahead is at the end as usual, including the highlights from a busy week for earnings on both sides of the Atlantic. One final thing to note is the US Treasury’s updated borrowing estimates (today) and the subsequent refunding announcement (Wednesday). This normally gets released without too much fuss but remember that in Summer 2023 (end July/early August) this quarterly announcement helped cause brief but great stress in markets due to higher than expected borrowing and more long-dated issuance. Since then the Treasury has managed the process with a view to minimising market fears but in an era of large borrowings these events are always worth keeping an eye out for.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 28

• Data: US April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, France Q1 total jobseekers
• Central banks: ECB’s Rehn and Guindos speak
• Earnings: Hitachi, Welltower, Waste Management, Cadence Design Systems, Deutsche Boerse, NXP Semiconductors, Domino's Pizza
• Auctions: US Treasury updated borrowing estimates
• Other: Canadian federal election

Tuesday April 29

• Data: US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, March JOLTS report, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, February FHFA house price index, Germany May GfK consumer confidence, Italy April consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, March hourly wages, February industrial sales, Eurozone March M3, April economic, industrial, services confidence, Sweden Q1 GDP indicator
• Central banks: ECB’s March consumer expectations survey, Holzmann and Cipollone speak, BoE’s Ramsden speaks
• Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, China Construction Bank, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Booking, S&P Global, Pfizer, Honeywell, Spotify, American Tower, Altria, Starbucks, Mondelez, Sherwin-Williams, UPS, BBVA, BP, Atlas Copco, Ecolab, Regeneron, PayPal, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Wal-Mart de Mexico, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Fair Isaac, adidas, GM, Corning, Kraft Heinz, CoStar, Ares

Wednesday April 30

• Data: US Q1 GDP, employment cost index, April ADP report, MNI Chicago PMI, March core PCE, personal income and spending, pending home sales, China April official PMIs, Caixin manufacturing PMI, UK April Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany April CPI, retail sales, import price index, unemployment claims rate, Q1 GDP, France April CPI, March PPI, consumer spending, Q1 GDP, Italy April CPI, March PPI, Q1 GDP, Eurozone Q1 GDP, Canada February GDP, Australia Q1 CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Muller speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
• Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, TotalEnergies, Airbus, Iberdrola, Santander, UBS, KLA, Equinix, GSK, Tokyo Electron, MediaTek, Equinor, Mercedes-Benz Group, Credit Agricole, Barclays, Volkswagen, CaixaBank, Deutsche Post, Haleon, Robinhood, Societe Generale, Humana, eBay, GE HealthCare, ArcelorMittal, Evolution AB, Repsol, Norwegian Cruise Line, Albemarle, Wingstop, Etsy
• Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday May 1

• Data: US April ISM index, total vehicle sales, March construction spending, initial jobless claims, UK March net consumer credit, M4, Japan April consumer confidence index, Canada April manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: BoJ’s decision
• Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald's, Linde, Amgen, Stryker, KKR, MicroStrategy, CVS Health, Airbnb, Parker-Hannifin, Lloyds Banking Group, Howmet Aerospace, Dominion Energy, Roblox, Targa Resources, Block, Hershey, Live Nation Entertainment, Kellanova, Blue Owl Capital, Estee Lauder, Reddit, Cameco, Duolingo, Twilio, Juniper Networks, Maplebear, Moderna, United States Steel, Roku, Wayfair, Harley-Davidson
• Other: UK local elections

Friday May 2

• Data: US April jobs report, March factory orders, Japan April monetary base, March jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, France March budget balance, Italy April manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, March unemployment rate, Eurozone April CPI, March unemployment rate
• Central banks: ECB’s economic bulletin
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Eaton, Cigna Group, Mitsubishi, Apollo, ING, NatWest, BASF, Standard Chartered, DuPont de Nemours

* * *

FInally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the Q1 advance GDP report and core PCE inflation on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the May FOMC meeting.

Monday, April 28

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, April 29

• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, March (GS -$146.0bn, consensus -$143.0bn, last -$147.8bn);  We forecast that the advance goods trade deficit narrowed by $1.8bn to $146.0bn in the March advance report, reflecting a $10bn decline in gold imports that was offset by a $10bn increase in imports from major Asian trading partners.
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, March preliminary (consensus +0.7%, last +0.3%)
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, February (consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, March (GS 7,400k, consensus 7,500k, last 7,568k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged down to 7.4mn in March based on the signal from online job postings.
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, April (GS 90.0, consensus 87.0, last 92.9)

Wednesday, April 30

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, April (GS +110k, consensus +124k, last +155k)
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 advance (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last +2.4%); Personal consumption, Q1 advance (GS +0.9%, consensus +1.2%, last +4.0%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 advance (GS +3.32%, consensus +3.0%, last +2.6%): We estimate that GDP fell 0.2% annualized in the advance reading for Q1, following +2.4% annualized growth in Q4. Our forecast reflects a slowdown in consumption growth (+0.9%, quarter-over-quarter annualized), a sharp increase in imports growth (+24.0% vs. -1.9% in Q4), and a decline in residential investment (-8.2% vs. +5.5% in Q4), but a pickup in business fixed investment growth (+7.3% vs. -3.0% in Q4), stronger exports growth (+6.8% vs. -0.2% in Q4), and a rebound in inventory accumulation. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 3.32% annualized (or 2.77% year-over-year) in Q1.
• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q1 (GS +0.95%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.95% in Q1 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted), which would lower the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 3.6% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted). Our forecast reflects a sequential acceleration in wage and salary growth—reflecting the signal from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker—and slightly firmer ECI benefit growth—reflecting resets to start the year.
• 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, April (consensus 46.0, last 47.6)
• 10:00 AM Personal income, March (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.8%); Personal spending, March (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index, March (GS +0.08%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +2.67%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.8%); PCE price index, March (GS flat, consensus flat, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +2.32%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.5%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, in March. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.08% in March, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.67%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index remained unchanged from the prior month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.32%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.15% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure (vs. 0.26% in February).
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, March (GS +7.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +2.0%)

Thursday, May 1

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 26 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 222k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 19 (consensus 1,860k, last 1,841k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April final (consensus 50.7, last 50.7)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, April (GS 47.5, consensus 48.0, last 49.0): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index declined by 1.5pt to 47.5 in April, reflecting softer manufacturing surveys so far for April (GS manufacturing survey tracker: -3.1pt to 47.4) and a slight headwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, April (GS 17.2mn, consensus 17.1mn, last 17.8mn)

Friday, May 2

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, April (GS +140k, consensus +130k, last +228k); Private payroll employment, April (GS +140k, consensus +120k, last +209k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), April (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, April (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 140k in April. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a slower but still moderate pace of job creation. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 15k decline in federal government payrolls that offsets a 15k increase in state and local government payrolls. We see mixed implications from potential seasonal distortions: while April nonfarm payroll growth has typically picked up when the Easter holiday falls in late April, uncertainty is likely to disproportionately weigh on employment growth in months where gross hiring is particularly elevated, such as April. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% on a rounded basis. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.25% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting negative calendar effects.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, March (GS +5.0%, consensus +4.5%, last +0.6%)

Source: DB, Goldman

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 09:55

Futures Erase Losses As Markets Brace For Earnings Avalanche

US equity futures are little changed, reversing earlier losses as much as 0.5%, as global markets are broadly in the green amid a burst of positive sentiment, which even pushed JPM's recently bearish trading desk to turn tactically bullish this morning (more in a subsequent post). As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, but well off session lows. Nvidia shares fell 1% in premarket after the Wall Street Journal reported China’s Huawei Technologies is getting ready to test a new and powerful artificial intelligence processor that the company hopes can replace some products made by Nvidia; other Mag7 names are mixed with Cyclicals/Semis under pressure and Defensives catching a bid. Europe's Estoxx advanced 0.5% over early London session with gains led by info tech and consumer staples; Asian stocks were also broadly higher with Japan erasing all post-Liberation day losses.  US equities are focused this week on the tech sector, with Microsoft, Apple, Meta and Amazon all reporting earnings. The week also includes the April US jobs report, due Friday. Bond yields are higher as the curve bear steepens and the USD starts the session stronger. This is a data-heavy week but today’s focus is on regional Fed activity but the key’s this week are NFP, JOLTS, ISM-Mfg, and 25Q1 metrics.

In premarket trading, Nvidia shares slip after the WSJ reported that Huawei is getting ready to test an artificial intelligence processor that the Chinese tech giant hopes can replace some Nvidia products; others Mag7 stocks are Alphabet 0.06%, Meta Platforms +1%, Amazon +0.1%, Tesla +0.8%, Nvidia -1.5%, Microsoft -0.2%, Apple 0.6%. Boeing rises 1.5% as Airbus SE agreed to take over some assets and sites from Spirit AeroSystems, clearing the way for Spirit to be acquired by Boeing. Also, Bernstein upgraded Boeing to outperform, noting that the aircraft maker is now “making the progress it needed for the growth trajectory.” Eli Lilly slips 1.6% after HSBC double downgraded the stock to reduce — a sell-equivalent rating — from buy, saying the drugmaker’s risk-reward “is not attractive.” Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• CG Oncology (CGON) soars 40% after presenting data on cretostimogene grenadenorepvec monotherapy data at the American Urological Association annual meeting.
• Jack in the Box (JACK) rises 4% after Stifel upgrades to buy, saying new CEO Lance Tucker “has created a viable plan to strengthen the balance sheet.”
• Peloton Interactive (PTON) gains 6% after Truist Securities upgraded the fitness company to buy, saying the stock is finally nearing a point where the company’s improving fundamentals should support a recovery in shares.
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) climbs 5% after presenting initial data from a Zoldonrasib study in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

US futures posted modest moves as investors awaited reports from American companies worth $20 trillion, including four mega tech names AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and META, and watched for progress in US trade talks with Asian partners. Wild gyrations sparked by Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements have eased somewhat, but investors will be scrutinizing this week’s key company reports for the earnings impact of US trade policies. Fresh readings on the state of the American economy may support hopes of earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. 

Four of the Mag 7, Microsoft, Apple, Meta and Amazon,  are due to report earnings this week. Analysts expect the group to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions. In terms of market capitalization, it’s the busiest week of the year for earnings, with S&P 500-listed companies worth $20 trillion reporting.

Investors are also watching for any signs of progress in US trade negotiations after Trump suggested another delay to his higher tariffs was unlikely. Asian economies, facing some of the highest US “reciprocal” tariffs, are leading the way over their western counterparts in talks with the administration.

“Ultimately, it seems that we’re moving towards a place where these policies start to make a little more sense,” Themistoklis Fiotakis, global head of FX strategy at Barclays Plc, told Bloomberg TV. “If this starts shaping up in a place where markets can understand it, can quantify it, then I think that things are going to normalize.”

To help manage the next steps, the Trump team has drafted a framework to handle negotiations with about 18 countries, including a template that lays out common areas of concern to guide the discussions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is working on bilateral trade deals with 17 key partners, not including China. Bessent reiterated the administration’s argument that Beijing will be forced to the negotiating table because China can’t sustain Trump’s latest tariff level of 145% on Chinese goods. Its standoff with China will likewise limit the potential benefits the US can reap from deals with Asian trading partners, according to Phoenix Kalen, global head of emerging markets research at Societe Generale SA.

“Already there has been a lot of investor sentiment and positioning for some deals to be done, especially with Japan, especially with South Korea,” Kalen told Bloomberg TV. “But the scope is going to be relatively limited and hampered. The concern especially for Asian trade partners around how China will respond to the terms will limit the extent to which they can agree to certain terms with the Trump administration.”

Meanwhile, Friday’s US non-farm payrolls figures will also turn attention to the health of the American economy. “In general I think this week’s data won’t be too bad for the economy because it really precedes the announcement of tariffs,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., told Bloomberg TV. “The inflation numbers shouldn’t be too bad. But I’ll really be watching the ISM numbers at the end of the week and of course, the jobs data where we could see some softness.”

The S&P 500’s recovery month-to-date from a 14% drop to -1.5% as of Friday’s close is one of the best rebounds since 1950. Still, the bounce has been too narrow to instill much confidence in a sustainable longer-term rally. Traders may stay cautious as gains have been largely headline and short-covering driven. Volatility is abating but remains elevated. It’s also coming up to the 100-day mark for Trump’s presidency.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is set to extend its winning streak to a fifth session as it climbs 0.7%, boosted by M&A news out of Italy as Mediobanca made a €6.3 billion ($7.1 billion) offer for the wealth management arm of Italian insurer Assicurazioni Generali SpA.  Food & beverage, travel & leisure and bank stocks are leading gains while real estate and industrials lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Deliveroo stock soars as much as 18% to 173p after the food-delivery firm said that DoorDash has made a cash takeover proposal at 180p a share, and it would be “minded to recommend such an offer” to shareholders.
• Traton shares rise as much as 5.5% after the German truckmaker posted first-quarter results, with analysts welcoming a strong order intake.
• Interpump shares rise as much as 4.1% in Milan trading after BNP Paribas Exane analysts upgraded the Italian hydraulics and pumps manufacturer, saying it is “an overlooked M&A story with positive risk/reward.”
• ITV shares drop as much as 3.8% after a report that France’s Banijay Group is working on plans for a takeover offer for the entire broadcaster or its studio arm. Analysts note reports of interested bidders are building, but a deal isn’t a certainty.
• Fraport drops as much as 4.5% after Jefferies downgrades the airport services provider to underperform from hold, saying it’s overexposed to slowing transatlantic and business traffic.
• Nagarro shares fall as much as 16%, to a record low, after the German IT services firm postponed the publication of its full-year results.
• BoneSupport falls as much as much as 6.6% after the company announced its CEO Emil Billback is stepping down after more than seven years in the role.
• Valneva shares drop as much as 20% after French regulators decided to suspend the use of its chikungunya vaccine Ixchiq for people aged 65 years and older.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares also rose as focus shifted to a slew of major earnings from the region, while signs that trade tensions may have peaked, at least for now, helped sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, adding to last week’s 2.2% gain. Japanese benchmarks outperformed following a report on Toyota Motor Corp. chairman’s proposal to buy out Toyota Industries. Indian shares resumed their climb amid foreign inflows, while Chinese stocks were range-bound as officials reiterated their plan to strengthen support for employment and the economy. The flood of tariff-related headlines has slowed somewhat, and investors are turning their attention to earnings to gauge how Asian firms are prepared to tackle higher levies. The region is facing its busiest earnings week this season, with China’s biggest banks including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. set to release results. 

“Broadly, we’re seeing some relief positioning as there is some refocusing on fundamentals, which I would say is tariff fatigue,” said Billy Leung, senior investment strategist at Global X ETFs in Australia. On China’s earnings, markets want to see more commentary from corporates on domestic confidence, he added.

In rates, treasuries were cheaper across the curve, with futures extending a drop into the early US session as investors digest news around US trade talks with Asian partners.  US yields were cheaper by 2bp to 5bp across the curve, with intermediates underperforming slightly, flattening 5s30s spread by 2bp on the day. US 10-year yields traded around 4.27%, down 4 bps from Friday's close; European bonds also decline with bunds lagging by 1bp and gilts outperforming 1bp. Next Treasury coupon auction is scheduled for May 5.  

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat; New Zealand dollar lags G-10 peers and the pound leads gains, rising 0.3% against the greenback.

In commodities, spot gold falls $42 to around $3,278/oz. Oil prices are steady with WTI just below $63 a barrel. 

In crypto, bitcoin rose 1.1% to $95,344.86; ether rose 0.9% to $1,819.53.

Looking at the US economic calendar, it's quiet - we only have the April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am. Fed officials are quiet due to blackout period. This week also includes JOLTS, consumer confidence, PCE, GDP, ISM manufacturing and April payrolls. Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May FOMC meeting started Saturday.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +0.7%
• CAC 40 +0.8%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.26%
• VIX +0.7 points at 25.51
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1226.26
• Euro -0.2% at $1.1347
• WTI crude -0.2% at $62.92/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump posted on Truth that “When Tariffs cut in, many people’s Income Taxes will be substantially reduced, maybe even completely eliminated. Focus will be on people making less than $200,000 a year. Also, massive numbers of jobs are already being created, with new plants and factories currently being built or planned. It will be a BONANZA FOR AMERICA!!! THE EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE IS HAPPENING!!!”. Trump also posted that “…this is a crucial week to work on “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” which will contain Massive Tax Cuts, Strong Border Security Measures, Major Military Advancements, Dramatic Deregulation, Powerful Spending Reforms, and more!”
• Trump will meet with House Speaker Johnson at 2pm ET and will be signing executive orders focused on restoring law and order and securing the homeland at 5pm ET on Monday.
• Mark Carney is seeking a fourth Liberal win in Canada in today’s election. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives chipped away at his lead in the final days of the campaign, but surveys still point to a probable Liberal victory. BBG
• Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’s hopeful for a lasting peace after talking with Trump, who questioned whether Vladimir Putin genuinely wants to end the war, and floated further sanctions. BBG
• Huawei is developing an AI processor that it hopes may replace some Nvidia products, the WSJ reported. BBG
• Trump’s trade war with Beijing is starting to affect the wider US economy as container port operators and air freight managers report sharp declines in goods transported from China. FT
• The drastic reduction in goods from China hasn’t been felt by many Americans yet, but that’s about to change. By the middle of May, thousands of companies — big and small — will be needing to replenish inventories. Giant retailers such as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices. BBG
• China’s top economic officials said the country could do without American farm and energy imports as they vowed to achieve a 5% GDP growth target for the year despite the trade war with the US. FT
• China has rejected US President Donald Trump’s claims that he received a phone call from Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The Trump administration has repeatedly asserted over the past week that the US president had spoken by phone with Xi and trade talks took place. SCMP
• A senior South Korean government official ruled out on Monday that Seoul would agree to a trade package with Washington by the time the country holds a presidential election on June 3, and flagged challenges to reaching a deal even before early July. RTRS

Tariffs/Trade

• Chinese President Xi and US President Trump have not had a call recently, according to China's Foreign Ministry; says the US and China have not conducted negotiations and consultations on tariffs.
• USTR’s office was reported on Friday to have prepared a framework for staggered reciprocal trade negotiations aimed at streamlining talks with 18 partners on a rolling basis over the next 2 months until the US’s July 8th deadline, according to WSJ.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he had interaction with his Chinese counterpart in Washington last week and thinks the Chinese will see the tariff level as unsustainable and he also thinks there is a path to an agreement with China on tariffs, according to ABC News. It was separately reported that Bessent had met with Japanese Finance Minister Kato on Thursday and held productive discussions across a broad range of bilateral issues including reciprocal trade, while he was said to be encouraged by discussions with South Korean officials that focused on an ‘expanded equilibrium’ which encourages rather than restricts trade.
• US Agriculture Secretary said the US is holding daily conversations with China over tariffs.
• China has reportedly quietly exempted some US-made products from tariffs with Beijing said to have been canvassing companies and waiving duties on US goods in sectors where there is a lack of alternatives, according to WSJ.
• Shein is said to have raised US prices on some items by as much as 377% ahead of tariff increases, according to Bloomberg.
• Fox’s Gasparino posted on X that the Trump Administration would like to roll out trade deals this week, at least the outlines that have been agreed upon, citing sources close to the matter.” However, he also noted there are a lot of moving targets that could delay matters, while the deals on deck include India, Japan and maybe South Korea and Australia, although the White House spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment.
• Pershing Square CEO Ackman posted on X that the US could choose to unilaterally pause China tariffs to better facilitate US companies transitioning supply chains out of China, while he believes the US and China are incentivised to take tariffs down to more reasonable levels of 10%-20% as quickly as possible.
• South Korean's Vice Industry Minister says no chance of reaching an agreement on a trade package with the US before the June 3rd snap elections.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed amid a lack of major catalysts from over the weekend and with a very quiet calendar to start a busy week of earnings results and key data releases including the latest US NFP report. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in tech, healthcare and energy, while miners lagged after mixed production updates. Nikkei 225 advanced at the open as participants digested earnings releases and M&A news in which Toyota Motor's  chairman and founding family made a takeover proposal for Toyota Industries. However, the index has since pulled back from today's peak after failing to sustain a brief return above the 36,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid some disappointment from Beijing's press conference on policies and measures for stabilising employment, ensuring stable growth and promoting high-quality development which was conducted by the deputy heads of government agencies and the PBoC and lacked any major concrete policy measures. Japan's TOPIX Index erases all losses since the April 2nd US tariff announcement.

Top Asian News

• China held a press conference about policies and measures on stabilising employment, ensuring stable growth and promoting high-quality development which was attended by deputy heads of Chinese government departments and the PBoC.
• PBoC Deputy Governor said China will cut RRR and interest rates at an appropriate time, as well as guide financial institutions to guarantee financing demand for foreign trade firms. Furthermore, the PBoC is studying plans to enrich policy kits and will roll out new policies when needed, while it will boost financing support for private firms, allowing private firms to issue more debts.
• MOFCOM Vice Minister Sheng said China will further improve the second-hand car markets and will smooth consumption of used car market this year, while China will push the expansion of healthcare and childcare services and actively expand imports.
• China NDRC vice chief said will closely monitor domestic and external changes and improve policy toolkits, while they will unveil new policies based on changes in the economic situation and some new policies will be rolled out in Q2.
• China’s Finance Minister said China will adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote the realisation of the growth target and that China is willing to further open up its super large markets to the world to achieve mutual benefits.
• China’s Cabinet passed the draft law of China’s medical security and will submit it to the NPC Standing Committee for deliberation, while it also approved the Sanmen nuclear power plant in Zhejiang province.
• China issued a notice on further improving tax refund policies for foreign tourists to boost inbound consumption and will promote the expansion of tax refund stores at shopping centres, scenic spots, airports and hotels.
• Chinese President Xi said China will use various policies to support development, while he urged for the healthy and orderly development of AI.
• China’s top market regulator said regarding a media report of separating the Panama Port from the CK Hutchison (1 HK) deal, that they are paying close attention to the transaction and will review it in accordance with the law. Furthermore, the regulator said parties to the transaction must not use any means to avoid a review.
• TikTok owner ByteDance plans to enter online shopping in Japan as it seeks to expand outside of the US.
• Huawei approached some Chinese tech companies about testing the technical feasibility of the new chip called Ascend 910D, according to WSJ.
• Rumours were circulating in social media that DeepSeek’s R2 AI model is nearing release which is set to feature double the parameters of R1.
• Following the Politburo statement on Friday, which flagged further interest rate cuts, a Reuters source close to the PBoC said it was in no rush to trim rates as the impact of tariffs is still unclear.
• BoJ Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of JGBs: pace maintained for May.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened modestly firmer across the board, and have traded rangebound throughout the morning thus far given limited fresh macro drivers. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Food Beverage & Tobacco takes the top spot, joined closely by Autos. Real Estate sits at the foot of the pile, given the relatively higher yield environment today.

Top European News

• BoE Governor Bailey and US Treasury Secretary Bessent held discussions on financial markets and the regulatory environment.
• ECB’s Centeno said uncertainty is dominating economic analysis which was largely being caused by US trade policy.
• ECB’s Kazaks urged cautious steps and said the ECB should only lower interest rates into accommodative territory if the growth outlook continues to deteriorate much further, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB's Knot said the ECB June meeting is going to be really complicated, according to European press cited by Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Simkus said the ECB may have to cut rates a couple of more times as US tariffs weigh on economic growth and as inflation continues to slow, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB's Villeroy says he "does note see any extra inflation for Europe; says we still have margin for rate cuts in Europe".
• ECB policymakers reportedly are becoming increasingly confident about a rate cut in June although there is little to no appetite for a big move, according to six sources cited by Reuters. It was also reported that the central bank established a task force to simplify banking regulation.
• SNB adjusts the remuneration of sight deposits; lowers the threshold factor to 18 (prev. 20), effective June 1st.

FX

• A choppy session for the Dollar, but ultimately flat on spot month end in what has been the quiet before the storm in terms of news flow thus far, with the rest of the week packed with risk events including the first look at Q1 USD GDP and the US labour market report. There was minimal major and new tariff news, but US consumers may soon feel the impact (e.g. Shein raising prices by up to 377%, logistics slowdown in air freight and imports). DXY currently resides in a relatively tight 99.46-99.84 range.
• EUR is subdued, albeit marginally, against the backdrop of a string of relatively dovish ECB rhetoric, whereby policymakers are becoming increasingly confident about a rate cut in June. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1330-80 range.
• Flat trade for the JPY amidst a lack of major updates over the weekend. US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Japanese Finance Minister Kato on Thursday and held productive discussions across a broad range of bilateral issues including reciprocal trade. USD/JPY resides in a 143.29-143.90 range.
• GBP is slightly firmer in a quiet session thus far to start the week. In terms of UK trade headlines, UK Chancellor Reeves said she met with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, says the goal is reaching an agreement that is in both their national interests. GBP/USD trades in a 1.3280-1.3346 range.
• Antipodeans are lower intraday amid the cautious risk tone alongside ongoing tariff uncertainty between the world's two largest economies, whilst domestic updates have been light. AUD/USD dipped under Friday's trough in a 0.6369-0.6406 intraday range.

Fixed Income

• USTs are contained, but do hold a downward bias. Newsflow on the tariff/trade front included indications of a potential path to a US-China agreement, however, specifics have been light with major catalysts ex-geopols a touch light. Amidst this, USTs find themselves in a thin 111-14+ to 111-22+ band. Ahead, the docket is focussed on the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index before the Treasury Financing Estimates ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding.
• Bunds are in-fitting with USTs and as such are also in a relatively modest 131.32 to 131.76 band. Developments for the bloc, ex-earnings, have been light. The slight underperformance seen in EGBs vs USTs/Gilts is likely a function of some concession into upcoming EZ supply where over EUR 5bln is expected to be sold across three lines. On the ECB front, Reuters reported that officials are increasingly confident on a June move, though there is little/no appetite for a big move.
• Gilts are essentially unchanged in a very narrow 93.10 to 93.33 band. As above, updates light as we await further details on the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and BoE Governor Bailey, a discussion on regulation and financial markets which was reported as being “good”.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have been trading very choppy on either side of the unchanged mark, as traders digest the latest US-Iran talks and Ukraine peace talks. On the former, talks are reportedly progressing, but there is still a lot of work to do. WTI and Brent trade at USD and 63.50 and 65.70/bbl respectively.
• Gold is softer, and underperforms within the metals space in a continuation of the sell-off from record highs, printed Tuesday at USD 3500/oz, currently, the yellow metal is trading either side of the USD 3,280/oz mark, with eyes on the USD 3300/oz mark, a level which it retreated from overnight.
• Base metals are mixed, given the flimsy risk tone and after China's press briefing on policy underwhelmed. 3M LME Copper sits in a busy USD 9,316.15-9,402.85/t range.
• China is stockpiling oil amid Trump tariff shocks impacting crude prices as imports of crude to China surged in March and continued to accelerate in April with imports at nearly 11mln BPD vs 8.9mln BPD in January, according to FT citing Kpler data.
• China Q1 gold consumption fell around 6% Y/Y to 290.5 metric tons and gold production rose 1.5% Y/Y to 87.2 metric tons, according to the China Gold Association.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel's Defence Minister said Israel conducted an attack on a site in Lebanon’s capital of Beirut which stored precision missiles.
• Qatar’s PM said he saw some progress in Thursday’s Gaza talks.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the next round of nuclear talks with the US could occur next Saturday with the venue to be decided by Oman, while he added that both sides are showing seriousness and determination. Furthermore, a senior US official said the third round of nuclear talks with Iran were positive and productive with progress made on getting a deal but noted there is still much to do.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister said US-Iran talks will continue with a further high-level meeting provisionally scheduled for May 3rd and core principles, objectives and technical concerns were all addressed in US-Iran talks on Saturday.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu called for the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programme, insisting that any deal with Tehran must also address its ballistic missile capabilities, according to AFP News Agency.
• A huge explosion at a key Iranian port killed at least 40 and injured around 800 others. It was separately reported that an Iranian Defence Ministry spokesperson said there was no military material in the port affected by the blast, while - Russia will send several planes to Iran to help extinguish the fire at Iran’s port.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Vatican for 15 minutes which Zelensky’s staff said was constructive, covered a lot of ground and they agreed to meet again, while the White House said the meeting was very productive.
• US President Trump said the meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky went well and we'll see what happens in the next days, while Trump is very disappointed with Russia and wants Russian President Putin to stop shooting and reach a deal. Furthermore, Trump said the confines of a deal are there and that Zelensky is calmer now and wants to make a deal, while it was separately reported that President Trump said he thinks Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, according to Al Arabiya.
• US President Trump said there was no reason for Russian President Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns over the last few days which makes him think that Putin doesn’t want to stop the war and is just ‘tapping’ him along, while Trump added too many people are dying and this has to be dealt with differently through banking or secondary sanctions.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Russia and Ukraine are generally closer to a peace deal than in the last three years and a peace deal needs to happen soon, while he added that the US has options to hold responsible those that don’t want a Ukraine peace deal, according to NBC.
• Russian President Putin confirmed Russia’s readiness to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions during a meeting with US envoy Witkoff, according to IFAX.
• Russian President Putin said Kyiv’s adventure in the Kursk region completely failed and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov said Ukrainian saboteurs in Russia’s Belgorod region have been liquidated. Furthermore, Russia’s military commander told Russian President Putin that scattered remnants of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region will be destroyed soon, according to RIA.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia will continue to target sites used by Ukraine’s military, foreign fighters and military instructors sent by Europe, while he added that Russia would be willing to store Iran’s enriched nuclear material if both the US and Iran believe that was useful.
• Ukrainian military said Moscow’s assertion it has ended Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region is not true and operations inside Kursk continue, while its forces are still on active operations in the Belgorod region.
• French President Macron said he had a very positive exchange with Ukrainian President Zelensky and that Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire, while the coalition of the willing will continue working on a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine.
• German Defence Minister Pistorius said US demands for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia are going too far.
• North Korea confirmed troop deployment to Russia and said it will faithfully implement its agreement with Russia, according to Yonhap. Furthermore, South Korea said North Korea's confirmation of Russia troop deployment is an admission of a criminal act and the US State Department noted it is concerned by North Korea's direct involvement in Russia's war in Ukraine, while it added that North Korea's military deployment to Russia and any support provided by Russia to it in return must end.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump said American military and commercial ships should be allowed to travel free of charge through the Panama and Suez Canals, while he asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to immediately take care of and memorialise this situation.
• India test-fired missiles on Sunday as tensions rise with Pakistan following the Kashmir attack.
• China’s move to claim sovereignty over a disputed reef in the Spratly Islands by planting a flag triggered a stand-off with the Philippines in which the latter sent navy, coastguard and maritime police officers to Sandy Cay and two neighbouring sandbanks to uphold its sovereignty, rights and jurisdiction and displayed the national flag there, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was a joyous but painful weekend as Liverpool won the Premier League for only the second time in my adult life but I broke a toe cooking the kids’ dinner! Given you’re no doubt wondering how, I basically caught my right little toe on the kitchen island as I was walking round it. It was extremely painful and ballooned up to nearly the size of a golf ball.
While trying to take my mind off the pain, this week will be the first for a while where data and earnings will compete with tariff headlines as it’s a bumper week on this front. In terms of data the main highlights in the US are payrolls (Friday), core PCE inflation and US GDP (Wednesday), ISM manufacturing (Thursday) and the latest JOLTS and consumer confidence tomorrow. In Europe flash CPI numbers get released from Spain tomorrow, Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, with the Eurozone aggregate on Friday (our economists’ preview is here). On Wednesday, Q1 GDP reports are due for Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone. In Asia, the focus will be on the BoJ meeting (Thursday - our preview here) and April PMIs in China (Wednesday).

An avalanche of corporate earnings will centre around results from Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. This will contribute to a whopping 40% of S&P 500 market cap reporting this week. It's fair to say that these Mag-7 earnings will go a long way to dictating the tone of the week. As I mentioned last week remember that before Liberation Day the main theme bubbling in the background was the Mag-7 underperforming due to DeepSeek, worries about extreme levels of Capex needed to power AI forward, valuations and a disappointing Q4 reporting season around the end of January. Three months on we'll see what earnings look like.

Elsewhere we see the federal election in Canada today. Remember the ruling Liberal Party were frequently 25pp behind in the polls in early-mid January even after Trudeau had announced his resignation as leader. However after the "51st state" rhetoric and aggressive tariffs, the rally round the flag movement has propelled the Liberals into a 3-4pp lead in current poll of polls which if replicated today would likely give them a small majority. So a remarkable turnaround. Elsewhere in politics, Wednesday will mark President Trump’s first 100 days in office. So expect lots of reflections on this landmark. The UK holds local elections on Thursday with the main point of interest being how well the populist Reform Party does given they have recently edged ahead of the ruling Labour Party in national polls.

So its fair to say its a busy week. Let's go into more detail on some of the main data points. Firstly, in terms of payrolls, our economists forecast that headline (+125k forecast vs. +228k previously) and private (+125k vs. +209k) payrolls will mean revert after a strong March, particularly within the leisure/hospitality and retail sectors. Our econ team point out that March and April can get whipped around due to the timing of Easter and school spring breaks. Unemployment should remain steady at 4.2% though.

Wednesday's advance Q1 GDP will be interesting as the consensus suggests only +0.4% annualised growth in the quarter (+1.1% expected at DB vs. +2.4% in Q4) so that will raise some concerns if it materialises. At the same time we see March personal income (+0.5% DB vs. +0.4% last month) and spending (+0.6% DB vs. +0.4%) data. This will also contain the latest reading on the core PCE deflator (+0.1% vs. +0.4%) which is expected to be on the softer side this month. This will be welcome but remember this is all largely pre-tariffs.

The day by day week ahead is at the end as usual, including the highlights from a busy week for earnings on both sides of the Atlantic. One final thing to note is the US Treasury’s updated borrowing estimates (today) and the subsequent refunding announcement (Wednesday). This normally gets released without too much fuss but remember that in Summer 2023 (end July/early August) this quarterly announcement helped cause brief but great stress in markets due to higher than expected borrowing and more long-dated issuance. Since then the Treasury has managed the process with a view to minimising market fears but in an era of large borrowings these events are always worth keeping an eye out for. Our strategists’ preview and forecasts are here.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with local markets mostly higher but US futures notably lower. As I check my screens, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.81%), the Nikkei (+0.51%) are comfortably higher with the KOSPI (+0.15%) seeing more minor gains. Chinese equities are mostly trading around the flatline but S&P 500 (-0.52%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.60%) futures are lower.

Recapping last week now and markets put in a strong performance thanks to several factors. First, Trump signalled that he wanted to make a deal with China, and he said that tariffs on China could fall “substantially” from the 145% level at present. Second, Trump rowed back on his previous criticisms of Fed Chair Powell, saying that he had “no intention” of firing him, which reassured investors concerned about central bank independence. And third, there were increasing signs that the US economy was still holding up relatively well in the circumstances, as data like the weekly jobless claims and the April flash PMIs weren’t signalling a recession.

Against that backdrop, the S&P 500 recovered +4.59% over the week (+0.74% Friday) to close at its highest level since Liberation Day. In fact, the latest moves now leave the index just -2.57% beneath its level on April 2. That move was supported by a very strong performance for the Magnificent 7, which surged +9.17% (+2.86% Friday). And that strength wasn’t just confined to the US, as last week also saw gains for the STOXX 600 (+2.77%), the Nikkei (+2.81%) and the MSCI EM index (+2.67%).

That easing in market stress was evident from several other indicators last week. For instance, US HY credit spreads tightened for a third consecutive week, falling -38bps (-8bps Friday) to 360bps. US real yields also fell back, with the 10yr real yield down -12.3bps (-4.8bps Friday) to 1.97%, closing beneath 2% for the first time in over two weeks. In addition, the VIX index of volatility was down for a third consecutive week, ultimately falling -4.81pts (-1.98pts Friday) to 26.33pts, marking its lowest closing level since Liberation Day.

With the more positive headlines on tariffs and the economy, US assets more broadly began to stabilise, including the US Dollar itself. That saw the dollar index finally post a modest weekly gain after 4 consecutive declines, up +0.24% (+0.09% Friday). Similarly, US Treasury yields moved lower, particularly at the long-end of the curve, and the 10yr yield fell -8.9bps over the week (-8.0bps Friday) to 4.24%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 08:26

Worse Than Trudeau: Canadians Should Expect Disaster With Carney In Charge

Justin Trudeau's far-left regime in Canada has finally come to an end as the politician exits leadership in disgrace.  His legacy includes authoritarian governance during the pandemic, whereby he threw Christian church goers and pastors in prison for refusing to stop congregations.  He called for mass forced vaccinations, and he locked the bank accounts of protesters speaking out against the covid mandates.  His admin compared people donating to the cause to "terrorists". 

His socialist economic policies helped to exacerbate Canada's inflation crisis and his open immigration policies greatly expanded the the flood of third-world foreigners, driving up housing prices, crushing the labor market and straining social services.  By most accounts, the majority of Canadians were ecstatic to see Trudeau exit the stage. 

But what if they still haven't learned their lesson?  How is that even possible?

According to recent polls for the 2025 election set for April 28th, it is likely that Canadians have very short memories or they're gluttons for punishment.  Why?  Because Mark Carney and the Liberal Party are projected to make considerable gains.  Carney has rebranded himself as a "centrist" in order to win public favor, but nothing could be further from the truth.  Mark Carney is, in fact, worse than Trudeau on every level.

What should Canadians expect under a Carney regime?  More mass immigration, not less.  Higher inflation and a suffocating housing market.  Increasing political and economic tensions with the US, which Canada is dependent on for 75% of its export market (and there is no replacement).  Policies pressuring Canadians into a cashless system.  The detrimental institution of carbon controls and climate change rules for industry and energy.  And, even less national sovereignty as Canada is made more beholden to the EU.

Lets start with immigration...

While Carney claims he wants caps on immigration, his advisor choices suggest Canadians will get more of the same.  The central banker has tapped Mark Wiseman, co-founder of the Century Initiative lobby group as part of his policy council.  The Century Initiative under the former BlackRock executive publicly endorsed the Trudeau government’s moves to take in 500,000 new immigrants per year by 2025. 

It should be noted that as Canada increased immigration their economy suffered exponential decline. Between 2015 and 2024, Canada’s ranking in the Human Development Index plummeted from 9th to 18th, while the country fell behind Italy in the average growth of real GDP per capita.  Canada's housing market and social services are essentially broken.

And how about individual freedom?

It's no secret that the Liberal Party widely supported the lockdowns and mandatory vaccinations.  However, where did Carney stand on the issue?  

Carney acted as an "informal adviser" to Trudeau throughout the covid event and supported the mandates wholeheartedly.  In an opinion article for The Globe And Mail titled 'It’s Time To End The Sedition In Ottawa By Enforcing The Law And Following The Money',  Carney wrote in reference to the Trucker Protests against the mandates:

"No one should have any doubt...This is sedition. That’s a word I never thought I’d use in Canada. It means incitement of resistance to or insurrection against lawful authority.” 

“The constant blaring of horns at all hours, the harassment of people, the culture of fear have been making residents’ lives hell, will bankrupt our businesses and if left unchecked would help achieve the Convoy’s goal of undermining our democracy...Anyone sending money to the Convoy should be in no doubt: you are funding sedition. Foreign funders of an insurrection interfered in our domestic affairs.”  

These are the words of an authoritarian, using "democracy" as a cover to institute a sweeping crackdown on public freedoms. 

Where does Carney stand on the economy?

Mark Carney is a long time Davo elitist, and as such he is an adherent of Klaus Schwab's "4th Industrial Revolution" theory and the concept of the "Great Reset".  Specifically, Carney is an avid champion of the WEF's climate change agenda and their efforts to make "climate consciousness" inseparable from business culture.  Meaning, Carney will undoubtedly bury Canada in climate controls and carbon taxes, snuffing out their industry and energy base just as the globalists have been doing in Europe.   

Furthermore, Carney is deeply involved in the push for national and global Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).  In his 2021 book 'Values", Carney calls for revolutionary centralization of the global monetary system and the launch of CBDCs as the new standard.  He has actively campaigned against cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and any form of decentralized money, claiming instead that the future requires a global digital currency to replace the dollar system (NOTE: Carney did not come up with this idea, this has been a ongoing plan within the BIS and IMF for decades).

“If properly designed, a CBDC could serve all the functions to which private cryptocurrencies and stablecoins aspire while addressing the fundamental legal and governance issues that will, in time, undermine those alternatives...”

At bottom, Carney is calling for a cashless society controlled by the banking oligarchy.  Without cash or an independent form of trade, all personal economic freedom dies.  Carney licks his chops over this prospect when he states (in reference to the covid crisis):

“With fear on the march, people were willing to surrender to Hobbes’ ‘Leviathan’ such basic rights as the freedom to leave their homes. And so it is with money. People will support the delegation to independent central banks of the tough decisions that are necessary to maintain the value of money provided the authorities deliver monetary and financial stability..."

This is not the man Canadians should be voting for if they have any interest in changing the current Orwellian path their country is on.  Critics claim that it's Donald Trump's tariffs that are to blame for the shift in the polls in Carney's favor. Yet, if Carney is elected he would be the most disastrous choice in negotiating a settlement with the US.  The situation will only become more ugly for Canada in every way.

This is not a "new boss, same as the old boss" scenario.  Carney is far higher up on the totem pole of degradation than Trudeau and much more devious.

Psst... click here for a preview of our new partnership at ZH Store.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 08:00

Did Someone Call The COMEX Bluff?

Via SchiffGold.com,

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs.

Gold

The Comex has seen unprecedented delivery volume in gold since the election as highlighted in previous articles. This has been driven by an arbitrage between the spot and futures market. This can be seen in the chart below. It has normalized some, but is still showing erratic behavior.

Figure: 1 Spot vs Futures

The chart below shows the total delivery volume for major months in gold. As can be seen, April had the second highest delivery volume on record, clocking in at 64,514 contracts delivered, equivalent to $21.3B!

Figure: 2 Recent like-month delivery volume

There was something particularly wild about April. The chart below shows a few metrics:

• The contracts outstanding the day before delivery starts (blue)

• The contracts on delivery day (green)

• • This is usually a big step down from the day before as contracts roll

  • This number is the sum of contracts open + delivered on day 1 to show what the outstanding amount was on day 1 of delivery

• Net new contracts opened during the month for immediate delivery (red)

• Delivered contracts (orange)

As highlighted above, you typically see a big drop in contracts from the day before to the day of, presented by the blue and green bars respectively. This month the opposite happened! On the final day, someone took on a huge position. The next day, they then settled these without delivery. This is represented by the negative red bar as the contracts were cash settled rather than delivered.

Figure: 3 24-month delivery and first notice

This activity can also be seen below. A huge number of contracts came into the first delivery day but then cash settled.

Why? What happened? Is it possible someone was smelling blood in the water and wanted to test the Comex? Did someone get incentivized to cash settle since there might not have been enough physical gold to satisfy demand? If so, I bet they got paid a big premium to do cash settle.

Unfortunately, the data can only tell us so much. We can conclude that something happened behind the scenes in a way that has never happened before. The pressure continues to build!

Figure: 4 Cumulative Net New Contracts

Even with the large cash settlement, we then saw over 10k contracts open for immediate delivery (upward slop the in the red line above). This would have ranked second all-time behind only the large amount from February ~17k contracts.

Switching to physical inventories….

Inventory levels have actually dropped since the beginning of April. This could be tied to the event from above. Maybe someone was promised some gold and some cash for cash settling. That suspected investor(s) apparently pulled the physical right out of the vault.

Figure: 5 Inventory Data

Once gold and silver were announced to be excluded from tariffs, people started suggesting that the arbitrage would collapse and movement of gold from London to the US would be halted. While inventory levels have stabilized and even dropped some, demand for futures and physical delivery is not slowing. First, as shown above, April was a huge month. As we approach May, we are seeing an increase of demand into the delivery period. See chart below.

Figure: 6 Open Interest Countdown

With the massive surge in inventory the open interest relative to physical stocks is not as massive as the raw number.

Figure: 7 Open Interest Countdown Percent

Silver

Silver is a minor month in April. While delivery volume was elevated (second only to February), it was a big step down from where it was in April.

Figure: 8 Recent like-month delivery volume

A similar situation took hold in silver with the large cash settlement (albeit on a smaller scale).

Figure: 9 Cumulative Net New Contracts

Silver inventories have continued to increase unlike gold which has leveled off.

Figure: 10 Inventory Data

Registered silver is also seeing a massive increase.

Figure: 11 Inventory Data

As we approach April, the silver contract is right in line with recent trends.

Figure: 12 Open Interest Countdown

On a relative basis, open interest is actually quite low because of how much the Comex has restocked silver inventories.

Figure: 13 Open Interest Countdown Percent

Conclusion

The data continues to show that there is a lot of movement going on behind the scenes in the gold market. The price of gold has reflected this, hitting new all-time highs multiple times in April before seeing some profit taking.

This is not your ordinary gold market. The market is under pressure and there are a lot of people fighting over limited supply of physical gold. The tariff exclusion did not seem to slow the demand of physical.

It may take several more months for all this to play out, but one thing is for sure… the fireworks are not slowing. The Comex data is sending up loud signals. Physical gold is in demand. Do you have enough?

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 07:20

Elon Musk's xAI In Talks For $20 Billion Funding Round

About a month after Elon Musk's xAI Holdings acquired the X platform in an all-stock deal valuing the social media company at $33 billion, whispers have emerged that xAI is in talks with investors to raise $20 billion — a move that could push the startup's valuation north of $120 billion. 

Citing anonymous sources, Bloomberg News reported Friday that xAI is in talks with investors to raise $20 billion. According to PitchBook data, the deal would mark the second-largest startup funding round on record, behind only OpenAI's $40 billion raise earlier this year. The funding would push xAI's valuation north of $120 billion if successful. 

Last week, sources told CNBC's David Faber that Musk was seeking to place a "proper value" on xAI.

Here's more color on Faber's conversation with sources:

The comments came during a call with xAI investors last week, sources familiar with the matter told Faber. While the Tesla CEO didn't explicitly address an upcoming funding round, the sources interpreted the comments as a sign that xAI is getting set up for a significant capital raise in the near future.

. . .

The sources also said the company discussed revenue at a potential run rate of $1 billion or more on the call.

Back to the Bloomberg report, Musk and xAI executives have been probing investors about their appetite for a $20 billion funding round. One source said the funding round could be much higher. 

The latest Bloomberg data shows Musk's net worth at around $335 billion. Year-to-date, his net worth has declined by about $100 billion, with Tesla's market capitalization halving due to gloomy sales figures and Democrats' war on the company.

Late last year, Musk's rocket company, SpaceX, became the most valuable startup after a private transaction valued the company at $350 billion. 

Musk's companies include many of the technologies that will dominate 2030 and may even determine the fate of the US empire as the great power fight with China rages on. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 06:55

"Stop The Digital Control Grid..."

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), publisher of “The Solari Report,” is back to update us about the “Fast-Approaching Digital Control Grid.”  (CAF) told us last time here on USAW, “There is no bigger ongoing battle for lovers of freedom than the battle taking place over the freedom killing idea of digital ID.”  

But it’s more that just ID, it’s an entire control grid that is being quietly built that is like a frog being put into pot and the water being brought to a boil.  

CAF explains, “You know our goal at Solari is each person has a free and inspired life.  So, we have been working for several years to stop financial transaction control."

"  If you get the ability to track each person and control their transactions, so if they don’t do what you say, they can turn off your money.  That is game over for the Constitution and for human liberty.  If you look at how the control grid is coming together, there are many different pieces.  There is digital ID, all digital currency or transaction system to a social credit system to the management to certain kinds of data and back-up energy.  There are many different pieces.  We look at the pieces, and we look at them as one-off things such as, oh, I don’t mind having a ‘Real ID’ because I can see why they might want a federal ID, or a passport or whatever.  Each one of these things looks nonthreatening and even convenient, but when they snap together, they are in a control grid, and it’s completely something else.  When Trump was elected, I was shocked to see, almost immediately, the President announce the Stargate AI initiative with the mRNA vaccines, which to me is the internet of bodies.”

CAF put together a long list of Trump Administration actions that are speeding up what looks like a control grid.  It’s called “The Fast-Approaching Digital Control Grid.”  It lists things such as crypto friendly currency actions, private Central Bank Digital Currency, shrinking banking sector, DOGE, undisclosed Epstein files and many more red flag items that could be used to allow crime to continue and build a digital prison for “We the People.”  While the Trump Administration brings change at a record pace, not a single thing has been done to find out about the “$21 Trillion Missing Money” that has been well documented by CAF and Michigan State Professor Dr. Mark Skidmore.  The money has been stolen from America, and the silence about this is deafening.  CAF says,

“We know there has been tremendous fraud in the financials of the US government.  We know that has happened.  If you look at all the things that you or I would do to figure out what had happened, where the money went and how do we get it back, that’s not what they are doing. . . . If you look at how we would do a successful operation to reengineer government and identify the real fraud and stop it, I don’t see any indication that they are doing that.  I do see some selected efforts that are probably sincere. . . . They are shutting things down lots of us would like to see shut down. . . . We know how to stop the death and disabilities that come from the Covid 19 vax injection, but you go the CDC website, and they are still recommending the Covid injections.”

The massive crime going on with government accounting makes it necessary for the control grid.  CAF explains, “What happened in the last Trump Administration is they adopted FASAB 56.  FASAB 56 basically said they could take the books of the US government dark."

"A secret group of people, by a secret process, could remove operations from the financial statement, and they don’t have to tell people what they removed.  

So, we have no idea what is in the financials. . . . This includes the big banks and contractors who do business with the government.  

So, looking at the US stock market and bond market, I have no idea what is true or not. . . . We are flying blind.”

CAF still likes gold for an investment.  She is also very bullish on silver as it takes about 100 ounces of silver to buy a single ounce of gold.  The gold/silver ratio is at record spreads.  CAF says, “At some point, the gold/silver ratio will revert to something more sensible.”

In closing, CAF says, “Everyone tell your Senator and Congressman and President Trump on X or Truth Social stop the control grid.  Stop with the control grid, and we can do this. . . . If we can face it, God can fix it all.”

There is much more in the 44-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts, as she looks ahead for what’s coming in 2025 for 4.26.25.

*  *  *

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

There is a lot of free information on Solari.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 06:30

Chinese Sellers In US Market Begin Hiking Prices

President Trump's tariff war on China has forced Singapore-based Shein Group Ltd. — whose supply chain is heavily concentrated in Guangzhou, China, with over 3,000 suppliers — to raise prices on low-cost Chinese goods for American consumers. The era of China flooding the U.S. market with cheap, low-quality goods may soon come to an end. 

Bloomberg reports that Shein raised the prices of all goods for the U.S. market, with markups much higher in some categories than others.

Data showed the average prices for the top 100 products in the beauty and health category jumped 51% at the end of last week. For home and kitchen products and toys, prices rose by 30%, led by a massive 377% increase for a 10-piece set of kitchen towels. Women's clothing grew by 8%.

Keep in mind these are the same cheap Chinese goods that have flooded the U.S. market over the past decade, crippling American manufacturers. The quality is often subpar, fueling America's plastic throwaway culture — not exactly the "green" future cheerleaded by climate radicals in the Democratic Party. 

Shein's price hike...

In a separate report, CBS News found that nearly 1,000 products sold on Amazon — mainly sourced from China — experienced price increases in the second half of April, with the average hike around 30%, according to data from SmartScout.

Trump's 145% tariff on Chinese goods forced China-based Anker Innovations to increase the prices of mobile charging devices by over 25% in recent weeks. 

The Trump administration's goal is to break America's dependence on cheap Chinese goods that have flooded U.S. markets through e-commerce platforms like Temu, Shein, and Amazon. The aim is to shift production out of China to friendlier countries (friend-shoring) — or, if the supply chain is critical (such as these), to re-shore it entirely. Fifteen years ago, there weren't hundreds of different options for Bluetooth speakers on Amazon. It's time to break America's addiction to Chinese junk.

Here's the late George Carlin on "American consumption"... 

Avoid the tariffs, buy American. Very simple. Already beginning: Americans Are Searching "USA Products" Like Never Before ...

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 05:45

The AI–Robotics Combo: Will All Employees Be Replaced?

Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times,

On April 14, a local government administrator in the United States sent my relative a letter that she suspected of including artificial intelligence (AI) content. Sure enough, an AI detector found 83 percent generated by AI GPT.

She said it was the best letter she had ever received from a politician—and she writes to her representatives frequently. She praised the letter for responding to every single point she raised in her own letter, something no unaided politician had ever done.

We toyed with the idea of confronting the administrator publicly. If AI wrote a better letter than the administrator himself, perhaps he could be replaced with the technology, and his salary redeployed for more substantive taxpayer benefits. It was a tongue-in-cheek idea. But the logic is nevertheless disturbing.

If artificial intelligence is now better than one politician for one task, according to one constituent, is it plausible that in 10 or 20 years, AI could be better than all politicians for all their tasks, according to most constituents?

At that point, voters might just vote for an AI politician rather than a human one. Human politicians are, after all, time-constrained by their need to sleep, eat, and hobnob with their elite donors and other benefactors.

My relative decided not to confront the politician at his next public meeting. She wants to influence his decisions in the future, and public shaming is probably not the best way to do this. So he gets a pass to continue using AI on unsuspecting constituents. Even his tiny hold on power at the local level protected him from the truth.

If he can get away with it, perhaps many other politicians are doing the same. This empowers AI-using politicians at the expense of the old-fashioned types who simply do not have enough time to respond to every point of every letter of every constituent, but try anyway. AI politicians then gain an advantage in the next election, and over time, due to natural selection, all politicians will use AI, as those who don’t get voted out.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a small autocratic country in the Middle East, is already way “ahead” of this slow “democratic” transition to AI. In a world first, the UAE is using AI to both track the effects of existing legislation and write drafts of new legislation. Presumably, the president of the UAE will review the legislation prior to enacting it. Let’s hope so, as there would then be at least one human in the loop.

The UAE considers using AI to write legislation to be 70 percent more efficient than relying on human legislators to write laws. How that remarkably round number was arrived at is unclear. But as UAE citizens cannot vote, they could essentially become forced laborers working not only for the president of the UAE but also for AI, given that nobody understands exactly how AI comes up with its recommendations.

Now, consider expanding this to everything. A new startup in Silicon Valley, called Mechanize, audaciously wants to use AI to automate all jobs. The startup, launched on April 17, expects to start replacing white-collar jobs, such as those of accountants, lawyers, and authors (full disclosure: this author is an author, so may be biased in favor of humans).

But the company also envisions pairing AI with robots to mechanize other jobs, for example, in agriculture, construction, and manufacturing. Companies like Waymo, Zoox, Tesla, and Lyft are already well on their way to populating our streets with robotaxis that could eventually lead most of us to dump our cars, perhaps in compliance with a government fiat written by AI.

That the military could also be automated, despite the promises of AI companies to do no such thing, is obvious given the rise of armed drones on the battlefields of Ukraine, and the interest of the U.S. and Chinese militaries in matching AI with drone warfare. One reason the United States denies the fastest AI semiconductors to China is that they are needed for the small AI devices onboard military drones that must learn from the adversary’s strategies mid-flight. The drone that learns the fastest and adapts its tactics to enemy drones before returning to base will survive.

The Israel Defense Forces reportedly used AI to target as many as 37,000 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) suspects with a 90 percent accuracy rate. This was paired with some “acceptable” level of civilian casualties per target to arrive at those approved for aerial bombing, with not-too-accurate dumb bombs. AI saved a lot of time for the targeters, though.

Communists have long promoted the idea of full mechanization to “free” humans of the need to labor. In their “utopian” schemes, full mechanization would allow humans the free time to pursue whatever they want, including leisure, art, and family. With the rise of mechanization, automation, robots, and AI, a new utopianism is coming that will appeal to the “Silicon Valley proletariat” of coders, programmers, and other tech workers.

With AI, this coming “tech vanguard” can seek an AI communism, in which humans frolic in nature while being watched over by the machine. It sounds dystopian and easily manipulable by Leninists if not Stalinists. But its rosy-glassed adherents will see it the other way around. They have likely read Richard Brautigan’s 1967 poem envisioning a “cybernetic ecology”:

where we are free of our labors and joined back to nature, returned to our mammal brothers and sisters, and all watched over by machines of loving grace.

Brautigan was not specifically communist, though he was counter-culture.

In the mid-2000s, a British movement developed a concept similar to being “watched over by machines of loving grace” that would become known as “fully automated luxury communism.” It was described by The Guardian in 2015 as “an opportunity to realise a post-work society, where machines do the heavy lifting and employment as we know it is a thing of the past.” This was before AI became popular. With AI, even the white collar workers will be “free.”

AI is being touted, by even those who know its dangers more than others, as a carrot and stick, a necessary evil, like nuclear weapons, in the competition with China. This could be considered an “anti-communist” or “anti-authoritarian” use of AI. The idea is that, if the United States does not deploy the most sophisticated AI to both entice Beijing to reform, and deter Beijing from attack, market democracy could be at a disadvantage.

In any conflict that occurs, Beijing will certainly deploy all technologies at its disposal. This puts those who would prefer to go slowly and carefully, or avoid any future of AI, in a bind. Use AI fire to fight fire, or not? And what if the fire blows back on the freedom of the individual in a market democracy, after burning the authoritarian adversary?

Handing over so much power, up to and including “AI communism,” whether in the form of political power to legislate or industrial power that replaces trillions of dollars worth of human labor, is an immense concentration of power in the hands of whoever controls AI. That could be a dictator, an oligarchy, an elected official who accrues too much power, or a hacker. It could even be AI itself, if it goes rogue or is irretrievably granted that power at some point in the future.

The advent of AI is likely a disaster for human agency, especially if it later develops malign rather than benign attitudes toward humanity. A benign AI is in no way guaranteed if we relinquish power to an immensely powerful technology that even its creators do not fully understand, and are not confident they can control.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 05:00

A CIA Director's Son Joined Russia's Army To 'Defeat The Military-Industrial Complex' & Was Killed In Ukraine

Russian as well as independent regional media sources have revealed that a high-ranking CIA official's son was killed while fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine last year. 

The news and story of the young man's death is highly unusual, given his mother is a US intelligence information warfare and 'disinfo' expert: the CIA’s Deputy Director for Digital Innovation Juliane Gallina Gloss.

Michael Gloss in Moscow’s Red Square before he reportedly joined the Russian army, via IStories

The New York Post among other US media outlets described the CIA official's son, a longtime global traveler and activist, as having been 'radicalized' against the US and its foreign policy.

Michael Alexander Gloss, 21, died on April 4, 2024 - based on a family obituary posted by a funeral home in Fairfax, Virginia - but on Friday investigative outlet IStories reported that Russian authorities only informed his family of his death in October. His official obituary only related that he was "tragically killed in Eastern Europe."

IStories apparently had access to his phone records, given that it published a live recording of Gloss informing his parents that he traveled to Russia, along with many photos including showing life in a Russian barracks with fellow soldier friends who appear to be foreign fighters.

Juliane Gallina Gloss has been the CIA's deputy director for digital innovation since being appointed in February 2024, and is a career CIA and US Naval intelligence officer.

It is reported that the son of CIA deputy director Julianne Gallina Gloss, 21-year-old Michael Gloss died in Ukraine as a Russian soldier. He signed a contract with Russia’s MoD. His father, Iraq vet Larry Gloss, develops secure software for U.S. and NATO forces pic.twitter.com/HmMyAnym5N

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) April 25, 2025

Among the more interesting parts of the story is how the young man wanted to "defeat the military-industrial complex":

In the same message, Michael vaguely described his future in which he would “defeat mortality and the military-industrial complex:” “I find myself more and more alive by the minute. Hungry for blood and glory. And basking in the pleasure of knowing that it all is still to be done... But as of now. I might have just incarnated in time to defeat mortality AND the military industrial complex.”

When asked exactly how he plans to defeat the military-industrial complex, Michael replied: “If I told you my real plan you wouldn’t believe me anyway.”

The Amsterdam-based Moscow Times writes that "Gloss was one of more than 1,500 foreign nationals from 48 countries listed in the leaked recruitment database since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022."

The highly detailed IStories Russian investigative report begins below...

Via CIA/US gov website: Juliane Gallina Gloss was named the CIA’s deputy director for digital innovation in February 2024.

In a video, a thin young man with long hair tied in a messy bun carefully releases three tiny chicks from a box onto the grass. A tattoo of a peace sign — the emblem of the anti-war movement — is visible on his finger.

“We found some baby chicken in the [Turkish] local market and Itthobaal had the idea to get a few of them and maybe he will travel with them. He bought maybe three or four chickens and put them in a nice little box with straw and everything he could find. But the next one of the chickens died and the second one too. He was quite sad about it and felt very stupid that he had this dream of a whole journey together with this little new family.”

A year later, Itthobaal — one of the many names that 21-year-old American Michael Gloss used to introduce himself — signed a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry and died in Ukraine. IStories has reconstructed his final route.

This is the story about how a young anti-fascist, environmental activist and women’s rights advocate from the family of a CIA deputy director dreamed of traveling light around the world, but ended up in the Russian army.

Michael Gloss is one of more than 1,500 foreigners who passed through the Russian military recruitment center during the war in Ukraine, whose identities were established by IStories.

IStories: Gloss put a photo taken at the regiment’s base on his avatar in his Odnoklassniki profile. Photo: Odnoklassniki

Read the full detailed report here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 04:15

Rat Infestation Disrupts UK Nuclear Plant Construction

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Workers at the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant construction site in the UK have reported a significant rat infestation, raising health and safety concerns.

• The rat problem is causing disruption to the major energy project and prompting calls for immediate action from trade unions to address the issue.

• Despite assurances about the safety of nuclear power plants, this incident highlights challenges and public perception issues related to nuclear facilities.

The U.K. has ambitious nuclear power plans and is developing several small- and large-scale projects. While opposition, high costs, and other factors have slowed development in the past, EDF has been facing another problem at its Hinkley Point C construction – a rat infestation. 

In early April, the Unite and GMB trade unions for workers at Hinkley Point C in Somerset, in the south of England, informed the developer, French energy giant EDF, that the facility was overrun with rats. The unions said that immediate action was needed as the rodents were “everywhere” and the rapidly expanding rat population prompted health and safety concerns for the workforce. 

One source reported, “They’re all over. You see them just sat there, looking at you. It is worse near the canteens, where I guess it started. But they are everywhere now.” Another source said, “The more men working on the site, the more rubbish on the site – and the canteens are not clean either. It has just become worse over time.” 

The development of Hinkley Point C is expected to support the creation of 15,000 jobs. Once complete, the plant is expected to power around 6 million U.K. homes and contribute 7 percent of the country’s electricity needs. It is planned to launch in the early 2030s, following several years of delays and spiralling costs. However, many believe this is an unrealistic aim. In recent months, workers have complained about poor working conditions and low pay, potentially because of EDF’s financial pressures. Hundreds of project staff also went on strike in November over the inadequate security access to the site. 

A Hinkley Point C spokesperson said, “As is common across all large construction sites, there will be occasions when the presence of vermin is noted. A specialist company has carried out a survey and measures are in place to address the issue. We are committed to working alongside our trades union partners to provide the best environment for all of our workers.”

Even though the U.S. government has previously assured the public that the TV show The Simpsons was wrong about potential rat infestations, this is not the first time the problem has been seen in recent years. The U.S. Department of Energy published an article in 2018 aiming to debunk several nuclear myths. It stated:

“Nuclear power plants are well-maintained.

The Springfield plant is notorious on the show for its safety violations. They range from rat infestations and cracked cooling towers (held together with chewing gum) to leaky pipes that spill out radioactive waste.

This simply does not happen. The nuclear industry is one of the safest to work in and to live near.” 

However, rat problems have been seen in the past, such as during the Fukushima 2013 power cut. In March 2013, the Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) suspected that rats may have caused a short circuit in a switchboard, triggering the power cut. Tepco announced that it had found burn marks on a makeshift power switchboard and a 15 cm dead rodent nearby. The outage shut down cooling systems for four spent fuel ponds at reactors 1, 3 and 4, however cooling to the reactors was not affected. Following the incident, engineers spent around 30 hours repairing the damage. This came just two years after a giant earthquake-triggered tsunami caused meltdowns at the plant, which was in the decommissioning stage during the rodent incident. 

Despite the rodent infestation in the construction phase of Hinkley Point C and during the decommissioning period of Fukushima, rats are, indeed, not a common sight in nuclear power plants thanks to the enforcement of strict safety regulations. For decades the public perception of nuclear power has been negative, due to three separate nuclear disasters – Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima. However, nuclear experts have repeatedly tried to reassure the public that nuclear power is one of the safest forms of energy. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency says nuclear power plants are among “the safest and most secure facilities in the world”, as they are subject to strict international safety standards. The World Nuclear Organisation reminds us, “In the 60-year history of civil nuclear power generation, with over 18,500 cumulative reactor-years across 36 countries, there have been only three significant accidents at nuclear power plants.” While these incidents stuck in the minds of people worldwide, this ratio is extremely low when compared to other forms of energy. 

Rigorous international standards and regulations, as well as significant improvements to nuclear technology, have helped make nuclear power one of the safest forms of clean energy production. As the public perception of nuclear energy begins to shift to more positive, and countries worldwide look for ways to support a transition away from fossil fuels to green alternatives, we can expect to see a massive nuclear renaissance in the coming years. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/28/2025 - 03:30

Israel Extends Compulsory Service As Manpower Crisis Plagues Army

The Cradle

The Israeli army has announced that it will extend mandatory service by four months due to a growing manpower crisis, coinciding with an intensification of battles in Gaza and the resurgence of deadly resistance operations against invading troops. 

The additional four months will be classified as reserve duty, allowing soldiers to complete a total of three years of military service. The military will also cancel pre-release leave for soldiers. Troops will have to serve a full three years before being discharged.

Image via Anadolu Agency

This decision follows months of intense fighting and rising casualties, which have strained troop levels.

The extra four months will provide benefits for the soldiers, given that reserve duty is usually compensated by the Israeli government. The army states that its decision is temporary and aims to help alleviate the current troop shortages. 

"At the moment, we are short 10,000 troops, 7,000 of them in combat units," the army said. Israel announced on Saturday the death of Staff Sergeant Neta Yitzhak Kahana, an undercover operative with the Southern Border Police, who was killed during clashes with militants in Gaza. 

His death marked the second Israeli soldier to be killed over the weekend. Both were killed in Gaza City’s Shujaiya neighborhood. 

Israel has said that it will launch a major offensive across Gaza if no progress is made in truce negotiations. According to Tel Aviv, current operations in Gaza – which have seen the army seize at least 50 percent of the strip’s territory – aim to pressure Hamas in talks, not bring about a complete defeat of the resistance group. 

An expanded assault on Gaza would include a massive call-up of reservists and operations in new areas of the strip, the army has said. 

Last month, Israeli media reported that the army is facing a crisis in its reserves as a growing number of soldiers have indicated a lack of motivation and an unwillingness to serve. A senior commander in the reserves told Haaretz that there are numerous cases of reservist soldiers refusing to report for duty. 

According to estimates, the response rate for the upcoming reservist call-up is expected to be no more than 50 percent. This would mark a 50 percent drop since the start of the war in 2023.

Meetings of the Israeli Security Cabinet revealed “major disagreements” between the political and the military ranks regarding the policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government on the genocidal war against the Gaza Strip.

Read: https://t.co/RSWsBIiV95 pic.twitter.com/HbtZuXxnVH

— Middle East Monitor (@MiddleEastMnt) April 27, 2025

The manpower crisis Israel is facing coincides with growing tension between Israel’s political and security establishments. Former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon called for civil disobedience against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following his dismissal of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar. This came during a protest in Tel Aviv on Saturday. 

Israeli protesters have also taken to the streets to demand an immediate exchange agreement in Gaza, where relentless airstrikes are endangering the lives of captives still held by the resistance.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/27/2025 - 22:10

Schweizer: Chinese Chemists Working With Mexican Cartels Creating Fentanyl To Kill Americans

New York Times bestselling author Peter Schweizer is once again speaking out against China's sinister role in fueling America's deadly fentanyl crisis, as President Donald Trump seeks to punish the communist regime for its involvement.

"There are 2000 Chinese nationals in northern Mexico working for the Sinaloa drug cartel," Schweizer, citing DEA data, told The Cats and Cosby Show on Friday. "They’re basically chemists."

"They take the precursor chemicals that, of course, arrive from China and they turn it into the deadly cocktail, which is what people are dying from. They produce pills. People who die of fentanyl overdose, they think they’re talking a Vicodin or Adderall,” he added.

Although fentanyl-related deaths in the U.S. are declining, the crisis remains a grim reality. According to the CDC, a staggering 76,226 Americans died from overdoses involving synthetic opioids—primarily fentanyl—in 2022, delivering a gut-punch to communities nationwide. Provisional data from 2023 shows a slight decline, with 74,702 deaths linked to these powerful substances. Even more striking, the latest CDC and DEA figures estimate approximately 55,126 deaths from synthetic opioids in the 12 months ending September 2024—a significant and hopeful drop, but still a sobering reminder of fentanyl’s ongoing toll.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly pointed the finger at China as a key culprit in America’s fentanyl crisis, accusing Beijing of fueling the epidemic by allowing precursor chemicals to flow to Mexican cartels. In a February 2025 White House statement, Trump accused China of subsidizing companies to export fentanyl-related chemicals, describing the crisis as a “national emergency” killing “approximately two hundred Americans per day.” He’s tied this to his trade agenda, imposing a 20% tariff on Chinese imports—on top of a 10% base tariff—explicitly to pressure Beijing on fentanyl. On April 24, 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social, “Fentanyl continues to pour into our Country from China, through Mexico and Canada, killing hundreds of thousands of our people, and it better stop, NOW!”

China has consistently denied accusations that it is a primary driver of the U.S. fentanyl crisis. Chinese officials argue that the crisis is a U.S. domestic issue rooted in demand, not their supply of precursor chemicals. In March 2025, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated the root cause of the fentanyl issue lies in the United States itself. Lin also criticized the U.S. for imposing tariffs under the pretext of the fentanyl issue, calling such actions unjustified and counterproductive. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/27/2025 - 21:35

USDA Withdraws Proposed Rule To Limit Salmonella In Raw Poultry

Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on Thursday that it is withdrawing a proposed rule that would have required poultry companies to limit the presence of salmonella bacteria in their products, ending an effort by the past Biden administration to reduce foodborne illnesses linked to contaminated meat.

Workers process chickens at a poultry plant in Fremont, Neb., on Dec. 12, 2019. Nati Harnik/AP Photo

The USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) said the decision follows the review of more than 7,000 public comments submitted in response to the proposed rule, which was published in August 2024.

The department stated it will “evaluate whether it should update” current salmonella regulations, according to a Thursday notice from FSIS, which is pending publication in the Federal Register.

The withdrawn rule would have required poultry companies to keep salmonella bacteria below a specific threshold and test for six strains most associated with it, with three found in turkey and three in chicken. Any products exceeding the standard or containing any of those strains would have been forbidden from sale and subject to recall.

The proposal was intended to reduce an estimated 125,000 salmonella infections from chicken and 43,000 from turkey each year, according to USDA data. Salmonella is responsible for approximately 1.35 million illnesses and 420 deaths annually in the United States, most of which are linked to food, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

FSIS explained that the proposed framework targeted raw chicken carcasses, chicken parts, comminuted chicken, and comminuted turkey products contaminated with certain salmonella levels and serotypes, which would have been classified as adulterated under the Poultry Products Inspection Act, according to the agency’s April 24 notice. The agency also proposed stricter monitoring, sampling, and recordkeeping requirements for poultry processors, according to the same notice.

The agency said it received 7,089 comments on the proposal, including feedback from industry trade associations, small and large poultry processors, consumer advocacy groups, academics, and state officials.

Decision to Withdraw

Key issues raised included questions about FSIS’s legal authority, the scientific basis for the proposed standards, economic impacts, and the potential burden on small producers, according to the FSIS notice.

“While FSIS continues to support the goal of reducing Salmonella illnesses associated with poultry products, the Agency believes that the comments have raised several important issues that warrant further consideration,” FSIS stated in its withdrawal notice.

The decision to withdraw the rule was welcomed by the National Chicken Council, an industry trade group. “We remain committed to further reducing Salmonella and fully support food safety regulations and policies that are based on sound science, robust data, and are demonstrated to meaningfully impact public health,” said Ashley Peterson, the council’s senior vice president of scientific and regulatory affairs, according to the group’s statement on Thursday.

Peterson criticized the proposed framework as “legally unsound,” based on “misinterpretations of the science,” and likely to have “no meaningful impact on public health.”

She added that it would have led to “an extraordinary amount of food waste” and higher costs for producers and consumers, according to the National Chicken Council.

“We appreciate today’s announcement by FSIS and share their goal of protecting public health,” Peterson said, adding that the council looks forward to working with the agency on future policy.

Sandra Eskin, a former USDA official who helped draft the plan, said the withdrawal “sends the clear message that the Make America Healthy Again initiative does not care about the thousands of people who get sick from preventable foodborne salmonella infections linked to poultry,” according to the Associated Press.

Sarah Sorscher of the Center for Science in the Public Interest compared the proposed rule to the 1994 ban on certain E. coli strains in ground beef, calling it a missed opportunity for a significant food safety victory. “Make no mistake: Shipping more salmonella to restaurants and grocery stores is certain to make Americans sicker,” Sorscher said, according to the Associated Press.

Earlier this month, the USDA delayed enforcement of a separate rule regulating salmonella in breaded and stuffed raw chicken products by six months, pushing the start date from May 1 to Nov. 3. Such products have been linked to at least 14 salmonella outbreaks and over 200 illnesses since 1998, according to the CDC.

From NTD News

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/27/2025 - 21:00