Individual Economists

China Buys Gold For 16th Straight Month, Wall Street Sells As Retail Loads The Bullion Boat

Zero Hedge -

China Buys Gold For 16th Straight Month, Wall Street Sells As Retail Loads The Bullion Boat

For the 16th month in a row, China bought gold into reserves in February even as bullion prices hovered near record highs.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) added another 30,000 troy ounces last month, lifting official reserves to approximately 2,309 metric tonnes (74.22 million ounces), valued at $388 billion.

This represents roughly 9-10% of China’s total foreign reserves.

At this pace, China is closing in on the top global holders (still behind US ~8,133t, Germany ~3,352t, but climbing fast).

Since November 2024, the PBOC has increased its gold holdings by a total of 1.4 million ounces.

Central banks are not alone, as CoinTelegraph's Martin Young reports, retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

“Retail-driven exuberance,” increasingly channeled through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), “set the stage for outsize moves,” continuing the precious metal rally from 2025, reported the BIS in a quarterly review released on Monday. 

Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought around $70 billion in gold ETFs, and these purchases have more than tripled over the last six months, observed the Kobeissi Letter, citing BIS data on Thursday.

“Retail investors are all-in on precious metals,” it noted. 

Gold has surged 60% over the past year, and some crypto proponents have speculated it has come at the expense of Bitcoin, which some argue competes with gold as a store-of-value asset.

BIS data shows cumulative retail inflows effectively tripled from around $20 billion to roughly $60 billion over the six months from late Q3 2025 to the end of Q1 2026.

However, institutional selling started around mid-November and accelerated after the precious metals market began to correct in January, according to the data. 

Bitcoin is not the only asset susceptible to high volatility from overleveraged positions

Prices of precious metals such as gold and silver reversed abruptly in late January and February 2026, while the “daily rebalancing of leveraged ETFs and margin‑triggered liquidations amplified the swings,” particularly in silver, BIS reported.

Smaller speculative derivatives traders, or “non-reportables,” had built up heavily leveraged long positions in silver heading into the crash, it added. 

Gold prices are in 'correction' currently, down over 16% from its record highs in January.

The abrupt price drop and the spike in precious metal volatility “point to the role of retail flows, and amplification of price moves due to forced sales by leveraged ETFs, trend-following investors such as commodity trading advisers, and margin dynamics,” BIS stated. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 13:05

Senate Again Rejects Effort to Restrict Trump's Iran War Powers

Zero Hedge -

Senate Again Rejects Effort to Restrict Trump's Iran War Powers

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday once again rejected a motion to discharge S.J. Res. 118, a joint resolution to withdraw American armed forces from military actions in Iran sans Congressional approval. The motion was shot down in a 47–53 vote.

The measure, introduced by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), is an attempt to invoke the War Powers Resolution of 1973 to require explicit congressional approval for ongoing U.S. military involvement in the region.

The motion was rejected mostly along party lines, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) providing the lone Republican supporter and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) voting with Republicans.

“If there’s anything that is plain in that Constitution, it is that a president does not have the power to unilaterally bring a nation and its treasure, to bring a nation and its men and women into conflict without a say of Congress,” Booker said on the Senate floor.

“This is not a partisan issue. This is not a left or right issue. It is a right or wrong, do you stand with the Constitution of the United States of America?”

The U.S.-led military campaign against Iran entered its third week on Wednesday as Iran engages in retaliatory strikes across the region, disrupting global energy flows and driving up oil prices. Iran launched missiles and drones late Wednesday night a toward Israel and several Persian Gulf countries, continuing a trend of targeting its neighbors.

The Israel Defense Forces, as well as defense measures in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have responded to Iran’s attacks. Israel conducted strikes in Tehran Tuesday, killing Ali Larijani, a top Iranian security official, as well as Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Basij force.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices have skyrocketed above $100 per barrel as Middle East oil exports have been halted. Strikes against Iranian gas fields have contributed to the increase in oil prices. Two Canadian cargo ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to pass through the waterway.

U.S. intelligence says Iran’s regime remains in power, but it’s deteriorated.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has said it would likely dedicate years to rebuild drone, missile, and other capabilities if it does not fall as a result of the conflict.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 12:30

Iran Oil Exports Soar As Bessent Floats Unsanctioning Iranian Oil Already-At-Sea

Zero Hedge -

Iran Oil Exports Soar As Bessent Floats Unsanctioning Iranian Oil Already-At-Sea

If the unstated intention of the Iran war was to give far more leverage to Russia, and - paradoxically - to Iran, by legitimizing their sanctioned oil exports in a world suddenly starved of energy, then mission accomplished.

Just days after the US "temporarily" lifted sanctions on Russian oil stored on sanctioned tankers, Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that the Trump administration may suspend sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea in a bid to clamp down on energy prices.

"In the coming days we may unsanction Iranian oil that's on the water, about 140 million barrels," he said on Fox Business, adding that "In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign."

It’s the latest play weighed by the administration to stabilize the oil market against price shocks since the U.S. and Israel launched their joint operation in February. The maneuver could free up 140 million barrels of Iranian oil for global use, Bessent said.

It’s one of several “levers” Bessent said the administration has at its disposal, as Iranian attacks cripple the Strait of Hormuz, whose blockade has shuttered roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. The administration could also make more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve available, Bessent added. The administration already started making 172 million barrels from the SPR available.

“So we have lots of levers, we’ve got plenty more that we can do,” Bessent said. “Some countries are going to do more, the U.S. could unilaterally do another SPR release to keep the price down.” 

The White House has discussed adding up to 100 million more barrels to the administration’s pledge last week, Politico reported citing a person familiar with the plan. 

“Some military advisers are concerned [about] draining so much, and are pushing for more like 50 million barrels on the concern that further destruction of oil and gas infrastructure in the [Middle East] region could leave the country vulnerable from a reserve standpoint,” this person said. 

A spokesperson for the Department of Energy — which controls the SPR — said in a statement following Bessent’s interview there were currently no plans for another release.

“The United States has taken several actions thus far to mitigate disruptions to energy markets,” DOE spokesperson Ben Dietderich said. “While the U.S. continues to consider all options to keep markets supplied, there are currently no plans for an additional SPR release.”

Bessent comments come a day after the US Administration announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other goods between US ports

Which leaves unsanctioning Iranian oil as the most likely next step. 

The plan is being floated at a time when a massive, nearly $70 gap has opened in price between oil delivered to Asia via Oman, which is now trading at $167/barrell and WTI which serves the US market at $97. Meanwhile Brent, last trading at $113, is rising and is increasingly disconnected with WTI on fears the US may ban oil exports, undoing Barack Obama's 2015 decision, and landlocking US production. 

What is remarkable about the Bessent proposal is that it comes just as Iranian oil exports surged on March 17 to over 4 million barrels after being heavily depressed for the past few days. If Iran can sustain this level of exports, it would be more than double the pre-war daily average of just over $2 million barrels!

Oil and product flows through the strait have plummeted from roughly 20 million barrels a day to just “a trickle,” the International Energy Agency reported last week, marking the largest supply disruption in history. U.S. gas prices are up by more than 85 cents per gallon from the start of the war. Bessent called the blockade a “temporary chokepoint” and implored American allies to help secure the strait.

“They’re the ones who need this oil,” he said. “The U.S., we’re an oil exporter.”

Yet while China is especially reliant on Gulf oil, having been traditionally the biggest customer, China also has a strategic petroleum reserve that it quietly filled up in recent years, and which currently has ~1.5 billion barrels, or more than the entire 1.2 billion reserve across IEA member nations. The question then becomes is Beijing willing to dip into its reserve while Asian prices remain elevated (or perhaps stoop so low as to purchase US oil), or is it waiting for a more strategic moment, like the invasion of Taiwan before starting the SPR drain. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 12:15

BABA Shares Crash Most In Six Months As Net Income Plunge Overshadows AI Progress

Zero Hedge -

BABA Shares Crash Most In Six Months As Net Income Plunge Overshadows AI Progress

Alibaba ADRs suffered their sharpest drop in six months during the US cash session after quarterly results revealed a massive tumble in net income and sluggish top-line growth, overshadowing yet another quarter of triple-digit expansion across its cloud and AI businesses.

Third-quarter results showed that Alibaba's core retail business remained sluggish, while its Cloud Intelligence Group posted 36% growth compared with the same period one year ago.

Revenue for the quarter rose by only 1.7% year-over-year to RMB 284.84 billion, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of RMB 289.79 billion. Adjusted EPS, EBITDA, and net income all fell below analyst expectations, with adjusted net income plunging 67% year-over-year.

Here's a snapshot of the earnings:

Revenue 284.84 billion yuan, +1.7% y/y, estimate 289.79 billion yuan (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group revenue 39.20 billion yuan, +3.8% y/y, estimate 41.67 billion yuan
  • Cloud Intelligence Group revenue 43.28 billion yuan, +36% y/y, estimate 42.36 billion yuan
  • China E-commerce Business Group revenue 159.35 billion yuan, +5.8% y/y, estimate 165.94 billion yuan

Adjusted earnings per American depositary receipts 7.09 yuan vs. 21.39 yuan y/y, estimate 12.34 yuan

Adjusted EBITDA 34.06 billion yuan, -45% y/y, estimate 39.62 billion yuan

Adjusted net income 16.71 billion yuan, -67% y/y, estimate 31.6 billion yuan

All Other revenue 67.34 billion yuan, -25% y/y, estimate 66.93 billion yuan

Alibaba's dismal earnings report highlights the pressure to monetize its costly AI buildout. CEO Eddie Wu, on a call with analysts earlier, offered few details on execution, implying Alibaba would need to sustain 35% annual growth to reach that goal.

"The business goal of Alibaba's AI strategy is very clear. Over the next five years, our goal is to surpass $100 billion in combined cloud and AI external revenue," Wu told the analysts.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Robert Lea and Jasmine Lyu noted, "Alibaba's push into agentic AI and creation of a "Token Hub" won't alter the e-commerce giant's AI profit outlook, which remains challenged. API (application programming interfaces) from companies including Tencent, MiniMax and Baidu is a loss-leading service despite recent price increases, reflecting high computational costs and low industry pricing. Rising cloud demand won't offset pressure in Alibaba's e-commerce and food-delivery businesses either, which remain the company's primary earnings drivers."

Alibaba is also pressing ahead with a full-stack AI strategy anchored by its proprietary T-Head chips, which management says have now entered scaled production. This signals a chip war with US tech firms and provides a tailwind for Alibaba's hardware push, as both state-backed and private-sector customers seek to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and boost domestically produced chips.

In the cash session in New York, BABA ADR fell 6.3%, the largest intraday decline since October 10, 2025, or about six months ago. Shares of BABA peaked in late fall last year and are down 14% year to date.

BABA's big drop in net income is certainly overshadowing its AI progress.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 12:00

WTI Crude Bursts Back Above $100 After US Export Ban Hopes Crushed

Zero Hedge -

WTI Crude Bursts Back Above $100 After US Export Ban Hopes Crushed

Having diverged significantly overnight from Brent crude prices, WTI is now exploding higher, breaking back above $100, after hopes of a US export ban were crushed by Politico's sources.

Sophia Cai (@SophiaCai99) posted on X that:

NEW: The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.

The reaction was immediate...

Erasing the overnight blowout in the WTI-Brent spread...

Will The White House deny this and signal the possibility?

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 11:51

CBS News Investigation Uncovers Massive Medicare Hospice Fraud In L.A. County

Zero Hedge -

CBS News Investigation Uncovers Massive Medicare Hospice Fraud In L.A. County

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

An investigation by CBS News has discovered massive Medicare fraud at more than 700 out of 1,800 licensed hospice providers in Los Angeles County.

The scam utilizes stolen Medicare numbers to fraudulently enroll healthy seniors in hospice with fake terminal diagnoses, billing Medicare an average of $29,000 per patient without delivering care, to the tune of hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars.

About 31 percent of hospice and home health companies in the U.S. are registered in L.A. County but when investigators visited the addresses listed, they found no clinics, patients or healthcare workers.

Instead they found multiple red flags, including multiple hospices in one building, high rates of terminally ill patients later discharged alive, excessive billing, and staff shared across multiple companies.

The California state auditor had sounded the alarm three years ago, saying that Los Angeles County had seen the number of hospice companies increase more than six times the national average, relative to its elderly population.

Let’s put this in perspective.

The population of residents age 65 or over in California is estimated at 6.3 million while Florida estimates its population of 65+ residents at 4.9 million.

Public records show 2,279 Medicare-certified hospice organizations in California with just 208 such Medicare-certified organizations in Florida.

This raises serious questions as to why California would have more than 10 times the number of Medicare-certified hospice organizations than Florida when it has less than twice the population of 65+ residents.

According to CBS, in just one year, L.A. County hospices overbilled Medicare by $105 million, prompting the state to investigate and revoke the licenses of 280 hospices.

This latest revelation of potential Medicare fraud shows that the problem of scammers enriching themselves at taxpayer expense extends far beyond Minnesota, which has been under scrutiny for the past few months over the alleged theft of billions of taxpayer dollars via social services.

It also reveals the silver lining that a mainstream news organization is finally willing to do investigative reporting on suspected fraud rather than leaving the heavy lifting to citizen journalists like Nick Shirley, who blew the lid off taxpayer fraud in Minnesota and then turned his sights on California.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 11:40

MMT Vs Austrian Economics: Deficits, War, & Markets

Zero Hedge -

MMT Vs Austrian Economics: Deficits, War, & Markets

The Keynesian-Austrian debate has raged for over a century. Questions of deficits, taxes, money printing, and their impact on inflation are at the center of the disagreement. War breaking out in the Middle East means we will see more of these three inputs, so how will they show up as inflation: in assets, consumer goods, everywhere?

Tonight, two opposing economists will answer those questions and how these macro trends are likely to impact markets.

On one side is Bard College professor Randall Wray, a leading advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Opposing him is Robert Murphy, senior fellow of the Mises Institute, representing the Austrian school. The discussion will be moderated by Kevin Muir, author of the widely read Macro Tourist newsletter.

Join us on the ZeroHedge X feed or YouTube channel at 7pm ET tonight to watch the showdown. 

Deficits: Constraint Or Illusion?

Wray and MMT-schoolers argue that for a sovereign currency issuer, deficits are not inherently problematic but instead a necessary tool to support demand, employment, and financial stability.

Murphy and the Austrians conversely believe that deficits, particularly when monetized via the printing press, have all sorts of negative effects:

  • Distort price signals
  • Crowd out productive investment (by offering high-interest risk-free government bonds to wealthy investors that might otherwise loan to a business).
  • Lead to economic imbalances that must be corrected

Those “corrections”, often in the form of painful recessions, are what the Keynesians (and today’s MMTers) try very hard to avoid. But can we kick the can down the road indefinitely? With the national debt now reaching $39 trillion.

The inflation debate remains unresolved as well. MMT proponents tend to frame inflation as the only real constraint and one that should be managed through taxation and policy calibration.

From the Austrian perspective, central planning does not work. Inflation cannot be managed because governments will always be incentivized to overspend and undertax (politically unpopular). Therefore, the printing press is left to fill the gap.

Both parties will likely agree that nobody benefits from the energy shocks of the Iran war, the deficits from the $100 billion+ spent since its inception, and the diverting of limited resources towards guns/explosives that might otherwise make goods to improve our daily lives.

It is a question of how to solve our economic ailments and how to manage a crisis. Top-down or bottom-up? Government-led or free markets?

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET to hear from both sides.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 11:20

Minesweepers, Missiles, Reactors, And Oil Reserves: Trump Expected To Press Japan During Oval Office Showdown

Zero Hedge -

Minesweepers, Missiles, Reactors, And Oil Reserves: Trump Expected To Press Japan During Oval Office Showdown

President Donald Trump is expected to use today's White House meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at 11:15 ET to press Tokyo for naval support in the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran - specifically requesting minesweepers and escorts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, tapping their oil reserves, developing missiles, and in non-Iran news, are expected to announce a $40 billion nuclear power project in the southern US

 U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attend a signing ceremony at Akasaka Palace state guest house in Tokyo Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025. Kiyoshi Ota/Pool Photo via AP FILE 

Despite publicly declaring that the United States “does not need the help of anyone,” Trump has repeatedly lashed out at allies for their lukewarm response and continues to urge partners to clear mines and escort tankers through the critical waterway. The request places Takaichi in an awkward position: Japan relies on the Gulf for 95% of its crude oil imports, yet any deployment of the Maritime Self-Defense Force would clash with the country’s pacifist constitution and deeply unpopular domestic sentiment toward the war.

"Japan gets 95 percent of its crude oil supplies from the Gulf," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business on Thursday ahead of the meeting. "I would expect that they would want to ensure its supplies are safe."

Japan's Navy notably has some of the best minesweepers and mine detection capabilities in the world, according to Bessent, who said it puts Tokyo in a perfect position to assist - and that they should release their oil reserves to ease pressure on global oil markets.

“I think we’re going to have a very good discussion with the prime minister,” he said. “President Trump has an excellent relationship with her.”

Trump may also seek Japanese production or co-development of missiles to replenish U.S. stocks depleted by the Iran conflict and Ukraine war. Japan maintains ties with Tehran, potentially offering a diplomatic channel, though past mediation efforts failed, Reuters reports.

Unlike Washington, Tokyo has diplomatic relations with Tehran, creating a potential avenue for diplomacy in any moves to end the war, although past attempts ​by Japan to mediate with Tehran in 2019 were unsuccessful.

Takaichi will also tell Trump that Japan intends to join the "Golden Dome", opens new tab missile defense initiative that ​is meant to detect, track ⁠and potentially counter incoming threats from orbit, two Japanese government sources said. -Reuters

Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, has so far offered no concrete assistance. Speaking to parliament on Monday, she confirmed no official U.S. request had been received but said officials were “checking the scope of possible action within the limits of its constitution.” In public comments before departure, she described the trip as “very difficult” and stressed that her “top priority is the early de-escalation of the situation.”

The visit - Takaichi's first to Washington since taking office - was originally designed to burnish the U.S.-Japan alliance, remind Trump of the China threat ahead of his now-postponed trip to Beijing, and announce a fresh wave of Japanese investment in the United States. Tokyo had already committed $550 billion in projects to win tariff relief; a second tranche of roughly $60-100 billion in critical minerals, energy, and other sectors was expected to be unveiled during the visit.

$40 Billion Reactor Project

Trump and Takaichi are also expected to unveil a major nuclear initiative at the White House today, channeling fresh capital from the US-Japan $550 billion investment fund created under their bilateral trade agreement.

GE Vernova and Hitachi, under their existing joint venture GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GVH), will construct BWRX-300 small modular reactors (SMRs) in Tennessee and Alabama, with the projects valued at up to $40 billion. Specific timelines for operation remain under wraps, but the deal highlights accelerating momentum for advanced nuclear technology.

This announcement follows the first tranche of commitments under the fund, which we covered in detail last month. Those initial projects totaled $36 billion and focused on a massive natural gas facility in Ohio, a synthetic diamond plant in Georgia, and a Gulf Coast crude export terminal.

The BWRX-300 units, each roughly 300 MW, are designed for faster factory-built deployment than traditional gigawatt-scale plants. Sites in Tennessee tie into the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Clinch River development, while Alabama locations will partner with private developers. No SMRs currently operate on US grids, but the Trump administration has prioritized regulatory streamlining and federal support to shorten timelines that have historically stretched a decade or more.

We previously covered the US-Japan trade deal and the surrounding agreements back in October of last year when investments worth over $500 billion were pledged by Japan. At the time, the announced value of investments for GE Vernova reactors was $100 billion, so this barely represents even half of that previously announced commitment. It remains unknown where the other $60 billion will be directed to.

There are also outstanding commitments from Japan to support NuScale with up to $25 billion, and Westinghouse with an additional $100 billion. The $100 billion for Westinghouse will most likely be in the form of funding the $80 billion agreement between the US, Cameco, and Brookfield for 10 AP1000s

Exact unit counts, financing splits, and commercial operation dates were not detailed ahead of the formal announcement. Additional energy, minerals, or defense deals could surface during the visit.

So - Iran, Oil, and Nuclear power are on the agenda, officially or not.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:40

Another Depraved Leftist: Many Such Cases...

Zero Hedge -

Another Depraved Leftist: Many Such Cases...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

An Oregon high school principal placed on leave for celebrating the assassination of Charlie Kirk has been sentenced to five years in prison for possession of child abuse material.

Jeremy P. Williams, former head of Rainier Junior-Senior High School, now joins a disturbing list of leftists in education and politics whose public anti-conservative rage masked far darker realities threatening children.

Williams pleaded guilty to three charges of possessing sexually explicit images of minors. He was initially hit with 13 counts after the Cowlitz County Sheriff’s Office received tips from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children on Aug. 28.

He received a five-year prison term, must register as a sex offender for 15 years, and will serve 36 months of community custody upon release. The Rainier School District placed him on administrative leave after his comments celebrating Kirk’s September 2025 assassination, though the exact wording remains undisclosed.

This isn’t an isolated case. It fits a clear pattern among leftists who rail against figures like Kirk while their own conduct endangers the next generation.

The very man who first tried to muddy the waters around Kirk’s killing faced identical charges. George Zinn, 71, immediately claimed responsibility at the Utah Valley University event. He shouted, “I shot him! Now shoot me!” to create chaos and help the actual shooter escape, later admitting it was to “draw attention from the real shooter.”

Investigators searching his phone discovered child sexual abuse material — graphic images of children aged 5 to 12. Zinn pleaded guilty to sexual exploitation of a minor and obstruction of justice. He was sentenced earlier this year to prison time on those counts.

Social media quickly connected the dots to this initial false confessor, underscoring how the same circles that celebrated Kirk’s death often harbor the very predators America First policies aim to expose and remove from positions of trust.

The pattern extends further. 

Just last month, San Jose Sunrise Middle School assistant principal Ruben Guzman was arrested in an FBI-led child sex sting operation after undercover officers posed as juveniles online. Guzman, 31, communicated with someone he believed was a 13-year-old boy, offering money for sexual acts as part of a pre-Super Bowl operation that netted 11 arrests.

These cases pile up in the education sector and among self-proclaimed progressive activists. Chicago Public Schools teacher Jaron Woodsley was charged in August 2025 with receiving and distributing child pornography after sharing images via Telegram last fall.

Far-left activist Houston Curry Wade, a former part-time faculty member at Edmonds College who regularly branded Republicans “pedophiles,” was arrested in late 2025 on charges of attempted child molestation in the first degree and communication with a minor for immoral purposes after attempting to meet who he thought was a minor.

Former New Hampshire Democratic lawmaker Stacie Marie Laughton was charged in 2023 with aiding and abetting the sexual exploitation of children after forensic review found over 10,000 explicit messages and transfers involving child images from a day care center.

Florida Democratic Party treasurer Matthew Inman, also president of the local Rainbow Democrats LGBTQ+ group, was arrested in January 2025 on federal charges for receiving and distributing child sexual abuse material. Prosecutors say he shared videos of adults abusing young children with an undercover agent posing as the father of a 9-year-old boy. Inman pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison in September 2025.

In Virginia, Democratic operative Randon Alexander Sprinkle was arrested in December 2025 on charges of distribution of child pornography. The FBI affidavit detailed his sharing of files with an undercover agent, including content involving young victims; he faces a mandatory minimum of 5 years if convicted.

From educators to party officials and activists, the rot runs deep across leftist institutions.

Kirk’s assassination sparked outrage and a surge in Turning Point USA interest — over 100,000 inquiries for new chapters, including high school Club America efforts. Yet the same voices who mocked or justified his death now see their own disgusting crimes laid bare in courtrooms.

Leftist institutions and media spent weeks defending or downplaying celebrations of violence on platforms like BlueSky. Meanwhile, the very people entrusted with molding young minds — or steering Democratic politics — stand exposed as predators.

This is the inevitable outcome when ideology excuses moral collapse and institutions prioritize narrative over child safety.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:20

US New Home Sales Collapse By Most In 13 Years In January

Zero Hedge -

US New Home Sales Collapse By Most In 13 Years In January

Despite falling mortgage rates, analysts expected December's drop in new home sales to accelerate in January... and accelerate they did... crashing a stunning 17.6% MoM (-2.7% MoM exp) - the biggest MoM drop since July 2013.

This huge MoM drop dragged sales down 11.3% YoY - the worst slide in three years...

Source: Bloomberg

This huge drop dragged the new home sales SAAR down to its lowest since 2022, catching down to existing and pending sales...

Inventories are up (Houses for sale in Jan. rose 0.4% m/m to 476,000), prices are down (Median down 6.8% YoY at $400k - lowest since 2024)...

...and remember these deals were signed in January - meaning this is not mortgage related (some suggesting weather impact - Northeast sales down 44.7% MoM, MidWest -33.9% MoM, but the scale is immense).

Of course, the future could get pretty dark as mortgage rates have surged since the war in Iran began...

...so much for helping 'affordability'. Looks like homebuilders are going to be 'incentivizing' a lot more soon.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:09

At the Money: Billionaire Divorce Planning

The Big Picture -

 

 

At the Money: Divorce Planning for the Ultra Wealthy (March 18, 2026)

DESCRIPTION:   Divorce is difficult under the best of circumstances, but when the uber wealthy split up, the complexities and potential missteps are even greater. And it’s not just because there are a few extra zeroes at the end of each number.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Patrick Kilbane is General Counsel of the RIA Ullman Wealth Partners, where he leads the Divorce Advisory Group. In addition to his years as a divorce attorney, he is also a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst (CFDA) and Wealth Advisor at the firm.

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: You’re a rich girl, and you’ve gone too far
‘Cause you know it don’t matter anyway
You can rely on the old man’s money
You can rely on the old man’s money

Barry Ritholtz: Half of all marriages end in divorce. That’s just as true for the ultra wealthy and celebrities as it is for the rest of us. Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Kanye West, David Geffen. What happens when there are billions to divide?

I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At the Money, we are gonna discuss the finances of divorce for the ultra wealthy. And full disclosure, I am not a billionaire and I remain happily married for 33 years.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Patrick Kilbane. He works at Oman Wealth Partners, where he is a CFP and General Counsel. He leads the Firm Divorce Advisory Group.

Patrick, the old joke is true. The wealthy are different than us, they have more money. All kidding aside, just how different are billionaire or celebrity divorces from the run of the mill splits?

Patrick Kilbane: Believe it or not, celebrity divorces and billionaire divorces are not all that different. They may have more assets, more zeros in the bank account, more complicated assets. But what you really gotta do is you gotta take a step back and you gotta figure out what you’re dealing with.

And then the biggest difference, I think, between a celebrity or a billionaire divorce versus the run-of-the-mill divorce is the privacy issues that go along with that. And we can unpack that a little bit more, but I think that’s a big non-financial issue that we’re dealing with in those cases.

Barry Ritholtz: So you’re talking NDAs and things along those lines for everybody involved?

Patrick Kilbane: NDAs and depending on what state you’re actually getting divorced in, there’s open government and sunshine laws that can get access to the divorce files.

One of the things that I enjoy working on the higher net worth and higher profile divorces is most of the time both parties to that case are very cognizant of that issue. So what we tend to do is we work very collaboratively and get everything settled and valued and tied up nice and neatly.

We are constantly thinking about how to keep away from the press.

 Barry Ritholtz: We mentioned people with a lot of zeros on their net worth. When you have ultra-high net worth couples splitting, are the mistakes that they make more or less the same as what we see in normal divorces? Or are there things that happen that are really problematic and potentially not reversible?

Patrick Kilbane: They are the same. The problem is a 1% tax mistake in your case or my case is magnified tremendously in that billionaire divorce case. The mistakes are the same. The consequences are tremendously more consequential in that type of case.

What I found in these higher net worth cases, generally, a young couple who starts making and earning and accumulating significant assets, they start doing what I call estate planning 2.0 or estate planning 3.0.

As I tell everybody, there’s two types of money problems, too much and not enough. And these people have the too much problem. So they have very complicated estate plans that are designed to not be busted apart.

This is a couple that’s been married 35, 40 years. They have SLATs and GRATs and QPRTs and these complicated estate vehicles. Well, okay, how do we separate them? What are the tax consequences as a result of separating or blowing apart that estate plan? And do we really want to do that?

Barry Ritholtz: I was out with a couple of guys right before the holidays. One of them was divorced, and another person at the table said, “Gee, I wish I could afford to get divorced.” That’s the too little money as opposed to too much money.

But let’s talk about the too much money. A lot of assets are not liquid. The headline value looks like it’s really big. How do you figure out the difference between what something appears, the liquidity factors, and then of course you end up either with a concentrated position or a tax headache, if there’s a liquidity event and sale for the divorce. How do you navigate those areas?

Patrick Kilbane: Let’s think back to the financial crisis. 2009, 2010. The late Elaine Wynn and Steve Wynn were getting a divorce and we think of Steve and Elaine Wynn, and we think about people that have tons of cash, cash flows, and no problem.

The Wynns had to liquidate shares of Wynn Resorts to free up money for their divorce case. So if Steve and Elaine Wynn have to sell assets from a liquidity standpoint in a divorce case, you can imagine that other business owners may have to do the same thing. And then, like you said, maybe the couples are going through a business sale or there’s some other liquidity event.

The great thing about these cases is generally people are motivated together to reduce tax liabilities and work together to maximize the size of the pie. And I think again, in the billionaire celebrity divorce case, there’s more motivation from both sides to do that.

Barry Ritholtz: What do you do with things that are kind of hard to put a dollar number on? Carried interest, RSUs, restricted stock, even deferred comp options. How do you navigate that?

Patrick Kilbane: There are all sorts of other professionals that are experts in placing a value on that.

You gotta step back and say, okay, what are my goals and what are my estranged spouse’s goals? So all of the contingent assets that you just rattled off, they have some sort of expectation that you’re still gonna have to be linked together for some period of time in order to realize those assets. And maybe the person who’s employed and is compensated in those alternative ways, they may not want to have their former spouse contacting their human resources department or their executive compensation department.

Then the question becomes, do we have enough liquidity to buy that person out? What sort of risk premium are we assigning on carry that may actually not materialize? Are these assets deferred? Are they qualified? Are they non-qualified? What sort of growth rate do we model? When we’re coming up with that, do we think that growth rate is fair?  If we don’t, then do we just say, okay, fine, I’m gonna roll the dice and I’m gonna ride along and see what happens with the carry and whether it materializes or not.

And then I think history is a good place to look to too. If we’ve been married for a significant amount of time, how have previous iterations of the funds done and how comfortable do I feel about carry actually being there.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned outside experts. How do you, as the advisor, coordinate with outside lawyers, accountants, and estate attorneys? You’re sort of trying to make sure the client isn’t stuck as a project manager as they’re undergoing this very emotional experience.

Patrick Kilbane: It’s not fair for the client to be the project manager. They’re the ones who are leaning on professional advice and having litigated for nearly a decade, I generally know all of the best of breed divorce lawyers in the area, and I’ll lean on law school classmates to find the best of breed divorce lawyers all over the country. And the divorce lawyer is going to be the quarterback. I think it’s very important to understand where the divorce is actually taking place.

So you can have a great expert witness, but if that expert witness is not known to the judge or they’re just simply not able to communicate their work product and make the court understand what’s going on, then they’re not a very good expert.

You really have to know where you’re at, know the experts that have significant experience doing this type of work. And then if that expert is well known to the court and to the opposing parties, and they do sort of a B-plus job, then maybe we need to sort of backstop them with that national expert that is really, really precise and really refined, that can help out.

I said this to a client the other day. I’m sort of the offensive coordinator. I know enough to be dangerous, but I’m not in the business of giving out legal advice. If I wanted to do that, I would still be an advocate. But we work together. I make suggestions. The head coach, the lawyer, has gotta be the one who ultimately implements the plan.

Barry Ritholtz: I mentioned in our introduction, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates. It raises the question when you have highly appreciated founder stock at a very low-cost basis, and then all of the capital gains that come with getting liquid with that.

When I look at folks like Larry Ellison or Bezos or Gates, they’ve let it run for so long. What we saw with Gates is he literally, I think, just this week, there was an $8 billion transfer of Microsoft stock before the sell-off to the Melinda Gates Foundation.

What are best practices with dealing with things like founder stock at a really low cost basis?

Patrick Kilbane: You hit on one of the strategies right away. If philanthropy or charitable giving is part of the equation, then we bring in an expert in talking about, if a charitable foundation isn’t set up, what’s the best way to maximize a gift to charity. And you hit the nail on the head. Donating appreciated stock to the charity, to a charitable foundation, to a donor-advised fund is certainly a way to do that because, as you know, you get the market value for the contribution of the stock. You don’t have to worry about the capital gains tax, nor does the charity. Everybody wins.

 Barry Ritholtz: We saw that with Bezos, his wife also, right? A big chunk of Amazon stock went into her philanthropy. What do you do when it’s not a public company? What do you do when you have a highly valued private company? Things like tangible book value and goodwill. They’re so squishy. How do you put a dollar value on that?

 Patrick Kilbane: Sure. We’ll oftentimes bring in expert witnesses at valuing those privately held companies, and as you and I talked before the taping Barry, there’s two components to the value of a business. There’s the tangible assets and the goodwill. Well, in the context of a divorce case, we have to drill down into the goodwill and we have to say, alright, what component of the goodwill is the enterprise goodwill?

And then what component of the goodwill is attributable to the marital litigant? So let me give you an example. Let’s say there’s Barry Ritholtz Insurance Agency, or there’s State Farm Insurance where Barry Ritholtz is the registered agent. So if I live in some proximity to the State Farm office where Barry’s the registered agent, maybe I’m going there because I know Barry, but more likely than not, I’m going there because of the brand State Farm. So there’s more enterprise goodwill there. But if I’m going to the Ritholtz property and casualty insurance up the street, it’s probably because I rode the train to the city with Barry, maybe Barry sponsored the little league baseball team, Barry was referred to me by somebody else that you helped who needed those products. So those are the issues that we have to get into.

And on my team, you and I and your listeners know how significant small businesses are to the American economy. Well, in the higher net worth cases, a lot of these families have small businesses. It’s the biggest asset in the divorce case. So I found my business partner, Caitlin, she was working at a business brokerage firm. And I thought, man, this woman has great credentials, great presence. She has that business valuation expertise. So on my team, I have somebody who came from the valuation world to help the lawyers and our clients spot those business valuation issues because they are so essential to the divorce case.

Barry Ritholtz: Since we’re talking about ultra high net worth potential divorces, one of the things I was thinking about was liability protection. A lot of these families have umbrella policies. They have very specific lawsuits and potential liability they’re trying to shield themselves from. How do you manage that throughout a divorce process?

Patrick Kilbane: I mean, that’s probably the most important question that you’ve asked me. We can divide, we can design the best portfolio, have a great asset allocation, have strategy to redeem company stock and dilute concentrated positions. But if you don’t have the right protection in place, if you don’t have an umbrella policy, if you don’t have an umbrella policy that is taking into consideration uninsured motorists. And I’m gonna even back up before we even get to insurance and look at how assets are titled.

I live in Florida and Florida is one of the jurisdictions in the country where you can hold property as tenants by the entirety. And most of the other jurisdictions you can hold property as joint tenants with right of survivorship, and I don’t wanna make this a law class, but tenants by the entirety means that you and your spouse own an undivided 100% interest in that asset. Joint tenants with right of survivorship means that Barry and his wife each own 50%. So if you’re a tortfeasor and you don’t have an umbrella policy, I can go after 50% of your brokerage account, but if you hold it as tenants by the entirety, then you and your wife have to be the tortfeasor for me to try to go after those assets.

What about titling cars? How many advisors are looking at how their clients title their car? I’m dealing with a case right now where somebody that I know was killed by a 16-year-old motorist. Well, the insurance companies are smart. They don’t wanna just title the car in the kid’s name, right. They’ll charge a higher premium to make sure that either mom and or dad is also on the title. So they can have mom and dad’s assets be used to satisfy a judgment. So these are all the things that I try to help people look at and say, hey, look, just by the way you title your assets, you can shield yourself from a potential liability.

Barry Ritholtz: What are your thoughts on finding hidden assets, and not just Swiss bank accounts, but other ownership of companies, of real estate, of what have you that perhaps one of the spouses is not fully aware of?

Patrick Kilbane: Right? That’s why tax returns and corporate tax returns and following the money and watching where it goes is so significant. Most of the time, one spouse trusts the other spouse or has no dealings whatsoever with what’s going on at work and the business accounts and so on and so forth.

It’s really important. You talked about big money mistakes before. Before you agree to a settlement, get a CPA to help you sit down and take a look at the tax returns and see how the money’s flowing. Generally there are things on there that raise significant red flags, which may make you wanna pause and say, okay, I need to take a look at this. I need to look at the corporate bank accounts. How are these retained earnings consistent with other businesses in the same industry? Is this too much? Did the salary significantly change? Did distributions significantly change? How have the historical expenses changed right around the time that the divorce was starting to bubble to the surface?

Barry Ritholtz: So to wrap up, billionaire divorces aren’t all that different from run-of-the-mill divorces. Sure, there are a couple more zeros at the end of the asset list and some complications, but generally speaking, the risks, the boxes you wanna check and the other issues that you’re gonna run through aren’t all that different from traditional divorces.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At the Money: Billionaire Divorce Planning appeared first on The Big Picture.

Escalate To Immolate?

Zero Hedge -

Escalate To Immolate?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Escalate To Immolate?

It takes a pretty big development to push the BOC, the FOMC, and the upcoming BOJ, BOE, and ECB meetings off the financial front pages - but yesterday’s and this morning’s news does in some eyes and headlines. 

We’ve warned the Iran War would ‘escalate to de-escalate’, and crucial regional desalination plants had briefly looked to become targets. Markets reacted --Brent around $112, 1-month TTF €54 at time of writing-- to Israel, in coordination with the US, striking Iran’s largest gas field, to which Tehran threatened retaliation against GCC oil and gas fields – and it has done so. 

Qatar has reported extensive damage at the world’s largest LNG export plant at Ras Laffan, which provides around 20% of global supply. Moreover, there are claims the Saudi back-up Yanbu oil pipeline that leads to the Red Sea (where the Houthis are still ominously quiet) may have been hit. That remains unconfirmed, but it would be dramatic in its impact if it were proven to be true, with millions of extra barrels of oil a day taken off the market.

Reports from Israel say the Iranian gas field was responsible for domestic supply and the blow was intended as a warning shot to Tehran to stop them targeting regional energy facilities. It seems to have had the opposite effect. The fear now is not just lower supply flows but, alongside damage done to oil wells by shut-ins, of supply destruction. The fat tail risk is we might see a downwards spiral into ‘escalate to immolate.’

Qatar expelled Iran’s military and security attaches and warned continued Iranian attacks would be met with further measures “in a manner that ensures the protection of its sovereignty, security, and national interests”; Saudi Arabia said it and the GCC have the right to take military action against Iran “if deemed necessary”; Kuwait arrested 10 Hezbollah operatives for an alleged plot to attack “vital installations”; the US is reportedly weighing reinforcements as the war enters possible new phase, including troops; Axios claims ‘Trump aides foresee Iran endgame divide: "Israel doesn't hate the chaos"’.

Moreover, Trump posted, “I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Strait”? That would get some of our non-responsible “Allies” in gear, and fast!!!” Next, read the long thread from shipping expert @Johnkonrad, who argues this could be a US ploy to take control of the maritime insurance industry from the UK and force European ocean carriers to reflag their commercial ships to the US to gain both insurance and physical protection in Hormuz, effectively creating a large US merchant marine without the need to build one (for now). Finally, consider that ocean freight rates are skyrocketing in places, and even giant firms are telling clients they have the right to invoke a 19th century law allowing them to drop off cargo at the nearest convenient port and leave it to the importer’s expense to store and ship it on when possible.

That was followed this morning by further suggestion --via an Economist article, it appears-- that the US might consider a crude oil export tariff or an export ban to curb energy prices. This would do little to help with expensive diesel, etc., but it would certainly throw ‘one price’ global energy markets into a further tailspin, widen the gap between Brent and WTI, already the largest in 11 years, and risk disrupting Asia and Europe to try to cushion the US. If it had the refineries to make it work, one wouldn’t rule it out – which speaks to where we may all head. 

Against these actual and potential structural, not cyclical shocks, it’s no surprise the Fed left rates on hold, as expected. Yet all they really had to add on the war was that “the implications of the developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.” Impressive work, if true - but then again, they couldn’t have known that Ras Laffan and Yanbu would be discussed as and then immediately after they met. (Though that was evidently a risk.)

Even so, because it’s how central bank economic models work, the new Summary of Economic Projections says, ‘Move along, nothing too much to see from a major Middle East war’. It now has notably higher (if not truly high) headline and core inflation, both 2.7% in 2026, before they fall rapidly to 2.2% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Note that our US Strategist Philip Marey has now changed his call to two Fed cuts this year, in September and December and, depending on how the war develops, we could be dropping another rate cut from our forecasts in the coming weeks. 

Using similar ‘I see no no ships’ modelling techniques, the RBA just released its latest financial stability report, which the local financial press summarises as, “Households can handle global shocks, interest rate pain.” That’s as pre-war and pre- the previous rate hike Aussie jobs data showed the total up 48.9K, well above the expected 20K, but full-time work collapsed with the unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.1%, which was not expected. Q4 Kiwi GDP was also disappointing at just 0.2% q-o-q vs. 0.5% expected. 

In short, central banks have faced ‘exogenous’ shocks now in 2020 and 2021 from Covid; in 2022 and 2023 from the Ukraine war; in 2024 and 2025 from the Middle East via the Houthis and the Red Sea, then US tariffs; and now in 2026, from a new Middle East war. At what point in this decade might a backdrop of ‘escalate to deescalate’ going to be taken as at least partially endogenous, and ‘escalate to immolate’ as the matching very fat tail risk?

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:00

Trump Eyes Boots On The Ground Along Hormuz Shoreline

Zero Hedge -

Trump Eyes Boots On The Ground Along Hormuz Shoreline

Several reports this week into Thursday say the Trump administration is quietly weighing a major escalation - potentially deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East as the White House struggles to map out an end game in Iran, according to Reuters.

Interestingly, the Reuters report doesn't include the phrase that Trump strongly campaigned against: 'boots on the ground'. Instead the report framed things more simply as "US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase."

Are the American people being slowly prepped for ground action? Officials say the buildup would give Trump "additional options" with the war having dragged far past the initial pledges of 'days' or some kind of brief in and out Venezuela-style op.

One section showing how jagged & mountainous some areas around the Strait of Hormuz can be, via Shutterstock

Driving all of this is of course control of the Strait of Hormuz, given there are few options for guarantee tanker traffic through the chokepoint. After the Pentagon bombed some 90 military sites on Iran's oil export hub Kharg Island last weekend, the US is running up against the obvious limitations of a purely air and naval campaign.

In a scenario that screams escalation, discussions now include deploying US troops directly to Iran's coastline to secure the passage. The even more aggressive option is potential ground operations targeting Kharg - again given it is the nerve center handling roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

There's also been talk of some kind of special forces raid to secure Iran's enriched uranium and key nuclear infrastructure, which some military analysts consider to be essentially a 'suicidal' mission.

One US official admitted to Reuters that putting troops around the Hormuz or on Kharg Island would be "very risky" - given Iran’s ability to hammer the island with missiles and drones.

There's also the reality of Iran's shoreline itself. It is jagged, mountainous, rocky, and narrow at points - giving the Iranian side a defensive advantage, also for hit and run style guerilla tactics.

As a reminder of some important commentary we featured earlier, most Americans have little understanding or concept of Iran's size in terms of geography or population. The ethno-religious make-up of the sprawling Mideast/West Asian nation is also deeply important.

Suffice it to say, Iran's population is more than double (over 90 million people) that of neighboring Iraq's. Iran is also the size of almost half the European continent. All of this is crucial for attempting to visualize what American military escalation there might mean, given the Trump White House has clearly not ruled out American boots on the ground amid the unfolding 'Operation Epic Fury'. And we are only now approaching three weeks in.

Consider: the US spent two blood-soaked decades occupying Iraq (again, significantly smaller than the Islamic Republic). Russia has spent over four years on its military operation in Ukraine, and Iran dwarfs Ukraine in size.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:45

Euro, Bunds Slide After ECB Warns Of Stagflation

Zero Hedge -

Euro, Bunds Slide After ECB Warns Of Stagflation

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, warning that the war in Iran could shift its expectations for inflation and the economy.

The deposit rate was left at 2% on Thursday - as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Officials said that leaves them well positioned, reiterating in a statement that they’ll act one meeting at a time.

The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

It will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices. Its medium-term implications will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.

The Governing Council is well positioned to navigate this uncertainty.”

With oil and gas markets getting another jolt earlier in the day, it said once again that it’s “determined to ensure that inflation stabilizes at the 2% target in the medium term.”

2Y Bund yields are up strongly overnight (spiking on the BoE's surprisingly hawkish tone). Post-ECB, yields are flat (down then up) as traders expected a little more hawkishness...

The EUR is sliding modestly post-ECB...

Perhaps most notably, the new quarterly ECB outlook, based on inputs that ran until March 11 to account for the start of the war, pointed to faster inflation and slower growth...

Separate scenario analysis suggests that “a prolonged disruption in the supply of oil and gas would result in inflation being above, and growth being below, the baseline projections,” the ECB said.

How badly Europe is affected by the the fighting hinges on its duration - still the biggest unknown.

The European Union has warned inflation could surpass 3% in 2026 if Brent oil remains near $100 a barrel and gas prices stay elevated for a prolonged period.

Some economists see it even rising above 4% if problems persist.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:38

Ukraine Peace Talks Are Suspended, Likely Indefinitely, Thanks To The Iran War

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine Peace Talks Are Suspended, Likely Indefinitely, Thanks To The Iran War

Since the opening of Trump's Operation Epic Fury and America's escalating war in Iran, now soon to reach three weeks, Moscow and Kiev have several times confirmed there's been a pause in peace talks. The last instance the three parties met was in February in Geneva, soon before the Iran conflict began. Days into US-Israeli Iran operations, a new round scheduled for March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed. This as Iranian 'retaliatory' strikes began to rain down on the Gulf.

On Thursday, one regional journalist has stated based on a fresh update from Putin's office: "Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov makes it official: trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the USA are suspended (apparently indefinitely) thanks to the Iran War. I suspect Moscow and Kyiv are secretly relieved to be done with the charade."

via Reuters

Indeed just moments before, Peskov announced that the work of the trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine group on security issues is effectively on permanent pause.

At the same time, he did clarify that work on organizing prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine continues, per that statement in Kommersant.

Also, the Kremlin has sought to make clear that Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev continues to engage with the American side on economic issues, as part of ongoing improvement in bilateral ties with Washington.

Washington's attention has clearly shifted to the expanding Middle East conflict, to the point even of lifting some sanctions on Russian oil transit to India, and Ukraine too has confirmed there are no more talks on truce.

Zelensky early in the Iran war signaled Ukraine is ready to resume the diplomatic track once conditions allow. "As soon as the security situation and the broader political context allow us to resume the trilateral diplomatic work, it will be done. Ukraine is ready for it," he explained at the time.

But the Ukrainian government is still rejecting the prospect of territorial concessions, with Zelensky early this month asserting that, "For some reason, some people in the world have begun to take Putin’s words at face value - that if Ukraine were not present in Donbas [the Donetsk and Luhansk region], the war would end. Despite all the words previously said by Russia, the aggression has only intensified, and we simply cannot trust the Russian side."

Meanwhile, Russia's military has kept reporting steady gains in the east, announcing the capture of 12 settlements in just the opening couple weeks of March. It is close to having hold over all of the Donbass - one key objective of Putin's in the 'Special Military Operation'.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:20

Civil Rights Icon Cesar Chavez's Family, Officials React To Sexual Assault Accusations

Zero Hedge -

Civil Rights Icon Cesar Chavez's Family, Officials React To Sexual Assault Accusations

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The family of Cesar Chavez said they were devastated by allegations of sexual abuse that surfaced against the American civil rights icon in a report published March 18, as officials began canceling celebrations and holidays in honor of him.

“This is deeply painful for our family,” the Chavez family told The Epoch Times in an email.

“We wish peace and healing to the survivors and commend their courage to come forward. As a family steeped in the values of equity and justice, we honor the voices of those who feel unheard and who report sexual abuse.”

The New York Times published an investigation stating that the labor leader, especially of farmworkers and Latino immigrant workers, allegedly sexually abused and groomed minors as young as 13 who worked in the labor movement.

According to the report, renowned labor leader Dolores Huerta—who cofounded the National Farm Workers Association in California with Chavez in 1962, which later became the United Farm Workers (UFW) union—also came forward with her own allegations later in the day.

Huerta said in a public statement that she had “two separate sexual encounters with Cesar” that resulted in the birth of two children.

“I am nearly 96 years old, and for the last 60 years have kept a secret because I believed that exposing the truth would hurt the farmworker movement I have spent my entire life fighting for,” Huerta said.

Huerta, who was in her 30s at the time, said she kept the pregnancies secret, according to Huerta. She said she arranged for the babies to be given to other families who “could give them stable lives.”

“I have never identified myself as a victim, but now understand that I am a survivor—of violence, of sexual abuse, of domineering men who saw me, and other women, as property, or things to control,” Huerta said.

The national Women’s March Foundation called on cities, school districts, and public institutions across the United States—including Congress—to remove the name of Cesar Chavez from streets, classrooms, and public buildings and replace it with the name of Dolores Huerta.

“We stand with Dolores Huerta and all survivors of sexual violence,” the foundation said and issued a call to action.

The Chavez family said they were still processing the information they’ve learned.

“We carry our own memories of the person we knew,” the family said. “Someone whose life included work and contributions that matter deeply to many people. We remain committed to farmworkers and the cause [Chavez] and countless others championed and continue to champion. We ask for understanding and privacy as we continue to process this difficult information.”

Dolores Huerta, the labor leader, civil rights activist, and co-founder of the National Farm Workers Association, is seen at the California Democratic Party's 2025 State Convention at the Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, Calif., on May 31, 2025. AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File

The Cesar Chavez Foundation also issued a statement, saying the allegations were “disturbing.”

“We are deeply shocked and saddened by what we are hearing,” the foundation said. “The Foundation is working with leaders in the Farmworker Movement to be responsive to these allegations, support the people who may have been harmed by his actions, and ensure we are united and guided by our commitment to justice and community empowerment.”

The accusations against Chavez—who was born in the outskirts of Yuma, Arizona, to Mexican-born parents and died more than three decades ago—drew reaction from officials throughout the day, with some canceling state holidays and events celebrating him.

The UFW Foundation announced it had canceled all Cesar Chavez Day activities.

“As a women-led organization that exists to empower communities, the allegations about abusive behavior by Cesar Chavez go against everything that we stand for,” the foundation stated.

“These disturbing allegations involve inappropriate behavior by Cesar Chavez with young women and minors, they are shocking, indefensible, and something we are taking seriously.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom was asked about the allegations during a press conference. The state marks Cesar Chavez Day on March 31 as an official state holiday.

“None of us knew. I think all of us are processing it and these kids have to process it now,” Newsom said.

“Three dozen schools in this state are named after Cesar Chavez. So, we’re just going to have to reflect on all of that, and reflect on a farm movement and labor movement that was much bigger than one man and celebrate that.

“I’m also mindful that it’s one thing for me to process … for young kids this is hard. I hope we have some grace in that respect,” he said.

“It’s a sensitive moment.”

The governor’s office told The Epoch Times it was open to conversations with the state Legislature on making any statutory changes that might be necessary in the future regarding the allegations.

It declined to comment on whether the governor would make changes to Cesar Chavez Day at the end of the month.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has canceled the Cesar Chavez Day holiday in his state. Abbott also directed all state agencies to comply with the cancellation.

“In the upcoming legislative session, I will work with Texas lawmakers to remove Cesar Chavez Day from state law altogether,” Abbott stated in a post on X.

“Reports of the horrific and widely acknowledged sexual assault allegations against Cesar Chavez rightfully dismantle the myth of this progressive hero and undermine the narrative that elevated Chavez as a figure worthy of official state celebration.”

A councilman in Fresno, California, said during a news conference that the city would remove Chavez’s name from city streets.

New Mexico Sen. Ben Ray Lujan also called for Chavez’s name to be removed from landmarks, institutions, and honors on a national level.

“We cannot celebrate someone who carried out such disturbing harm,” Lujan stated in a post on X.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:00

US Stock Futures, Global Markets Plunge As Energy Prices Explode

Zero Hedge -

US Stock Futures, Global Markets Plunge As Energy Prices Explode

Global stocks are in freefall after a fresh surge in oil and gas prices deepened concerns that the war in the Middle East will fuel inflation and hit growth. We saw clear escalation in Iran conflicts yesterday given the South Pars gas field strike and Qatar LNG facilities strike, both of which have effectively shut down all hope for a quick resumption of LNG flows from the Gulf. Bonds also tumbled amid a second day of major central bank meetings, and just to keep everyone on the same pace, gold and bitcoin also tumbled, despite some de-escalation effort (Trump said that Israel will not conduct further attacks on Iran’s main natural gas facility), but selloff pressure in global equities remains. Micron gave strong earnings and guidance yesterday after close (almost double the Street’s Q3 EPS guidance with companies noting strong AI demand), but the stock has been down 5% amid global risk-off moves overnight and high CapEx concerns. Only oil (and specifically Brent now that the market is pricing in a US oil export ban), LNG and various energy products are soaring, and threatening to send the world into a stagflationary spiral. As of 8:00 am ET, futures for the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after the US benchmark wiped out gains for the week in the previous session. Nasdaq futures were down 0.5% while European equities were hit especially hard 2.1%, heading for the lowest level this year, as European energy prices exploded. A benchmark for Asian stocks dropped 2.8%.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet -0.5%, Amazon -0.4%, Apple +0.3%, Nvidia -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Tesla -0.5%).

  • Mining stocks underperform as copper gave up its gains for this year and gold declined for a seventh day. Newmont (NEM) falls 7% and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) declines 4%.
  • Accenture (ACN) falls 2% after the consulting company provided a third quarter revenue outlook that disappointed.
  • Alibaba’s ADRs (BABA) fall 4% as earnings plunged while revenue barely grew, underscoring the urgency behind the Chinese e-commerce leader’s drive to wring more profits out of a swathe of costly AI endeavors.
  • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) tumbles 19% after the company reported a wider than expected fourth-quarter loss and forecast first-quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate as global storage volumes declined.
  • Dlocal (DLO) rises 7% after the emerging markets payment services provider’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics. The company also announced buyback plans and gave an outlook that analysts are largely positive on.
  • Five Below (FIVE) gains 7% after the retailer forecast net sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company’s execution and note strong sales momentum.
  • Micron Technology (MU) falls 6% after the chipmaker gave a forecast for capital spending that was higher than expected, the latest example of investors being wary of elevated spending.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) inches 1% higher after the space company announced a $190 million hypersonic test flight contract.

In other corporate news, last week’s cyberattack against Stryker has delayed surgeries for some patients. Elliott Investment Management is said to have built a significant stake in Align Technology, the maker of Invisalign teeth-straightening products. And a study in The Lancet Psychiatry journal showed that Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy were linked to mental health benefits. In AI news, HSBC is said to be weighing deep job cuts, betting on AI to shrink its middle and back offices. And Tencent’s shares plunged after it failed to deliver a clearer vision of how it’ll profit off agentic AI, with investors disappointed by a lack of new targets or products.

Today's latest selloff comes as Brent extended gains since the start of the conflict to nearly 60%, climbing above $114 a barrel after attacks on some of the Middle East’s most important energy facilities. The advance in West Texas Intermediate was more muted, rising 1.4% as the gap between US crude and the rest of the world widened on expectations that Trump may impose export controls which would landlock WTI and send it much lower as the US is energy self-sufficient. The same can not be said for Europe however, which faces hell. Oh, and to that point, European natural gas jumped as much as 35%.

Oil’s surge already has global central bankers fretting about price pressures. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, following a hold by the Federal Reserve the previous day, with both signaling the conflict had clouded the policy outlook. 

“The mood is clearly risk-off this morning, with markets still digesting a toxic mix of geopolitics and central bank messaging,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer. “The renewed escalation in the Middle East is reviving stagflation concerns just as investors were getting more comfortable on inflation up until March.”

Trump called for de-escalation after Iran unleashed waves of retaliatory strikes on energy facilities following Israeli fire on the South Pars gas field. The US wasn’t involved in that attack, Trump said, adding that any additional attacks by Iran on Qatar’s LNG facilities would prompt the US to “massively blow up the entirety” of the South Pars field.

For JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the market’s reaction to all this is too complacent. He notes that S&P 500 and oil correlations usually turn increasingly more negative after a 30% oil spike, and thinks not enough attention is being paid to the “bigger and more consequential question” of a negative impact on demand if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s message that that further interest-rate cuts are far from guaranteed finally fully sunk in for bond traders, who will be watching updates from other central banks including the Bank of England and the ECB in the next few hours. The Bank of Japan kept policy rates unchanged but added the Middle East to its list of risk factors without altering its inflation outlook, suggesting it still sees a potential path to raise rates in coming months.

European stocks were hit by a surge in natural gas prices amid attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure. Stoxx 600 is down 2% with all sectors ex-energy lower.Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday: 

  • Aker Solutions shares jump as much as 10%, the most in about a year, after the Norwegian energy industry services company announced its board is proposing an extraordinary cash dividend of NOK5.00 per share.
  • Nemetschek shares rise as much as 4.3% after the software company set a sales target suggesting the strong growth seen last year is set to continue.
  • Gulf Keystone shares gain as much as 5.8%, briefly hitting a 2022-high, after the oil and gas company delivered 2025 results ahead of expectations.
  • Inwit shares slump as much as 26% to a record low after customers Swisscom and Telecom Italia announced a joint venture to develop their own tower infrastructure.
  • Vonovia shares slide as much as 11% to the lowest level since 2023 after the residential real estate firm reported a portfolio valuation lower than analysts had expected and as German bond remain elevated.
  • Accor shares fall as much as 9.8% to its lowest in nearly a year after Grizzly Research LLC says it is short the hotelier’s stock.
  • J. Martins shares drop as much as 3.8% after a fourth-quarter earnings beat was overshadowed by the retailer’s warning that geopolitical uncertainty weighed on consumer sentiment in the opening months of 2026.
  • D’Amico International Shipping shares slump as much as 18% to the lowest in five weeks, after its biggest single investor sold shares at a significant discount.

Asian stocks declined, snapping a three-day advance, as surging energy prices and warnings from policymakers about a weakening economic outlook damped risk appetite across the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.2% Thursday, the most since Mar. 9, as Iran and Israel traded strikes on key energy facilities in the Middle East. All major markets in the region were in the red, led by losses in Japan and South Korea.  Several miners, including Australian gold producers Northern Star and Evolution, as well as Japan’s Sumitomo Metal, were the top decliners on the regional benchmark. Meantime, Tencent shares fell after China’s most valuable company said it plans to curtail buybacks and failed to deliver a convincing strategy on profiting from agentic AI. AIA shares also edged lower after earnings that were broadly in line with analyst expectations and planning a $1.7 billion buyback.

In FX, the yen is firmer after BOJ’s Ueda kept the prospect of an April rate hike alive. Yen gains are capping potential upside for the dollar in a risk-averse environment. Swiss franc lags after an unchanged SNB rate decision, which saw the Bank talk up the prospect of intervention.

In rates, yields on government debt surged. Treasuries have extended Wednesday’s steep curve-flattening selloff, leaving front-end yields about 4bp higher. US 10-year yield, about 4bp higher on the day near 4.30%, at session high and the highest since August. 2s10s curve breached 46bp for first time since early August while 5s30s is back near 100bp after reaching flattest level since Jan. 27. Bigger losses grip UK bond market, where front-end yields have risen about 31bps, the biggest jump since 2022, on a much more hawkish than expected BOE decision. Continued erosion in outlook for Fed rate cuts has swaps pricing in just 11bp of easing by end of year, while expectations for hawkish shifts by Bank of England and ECB continue to mount ahead of Thursday’s decisions

Traders cemented bets on two rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year and are now leaning toward a similar move by the Bank of England. Swiss and Swedish policymakers left rates unchanged. The increase in gas prices has prompted an acceleration in rate hike bets ahead of today’s BOE and ECB policy announcements. Year-end bets look for 55bps of ECB hikes and 36bps from the BOE.

In commodities, Brent crude is up more than 6% as escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf threaten energy infrastructure. WTI is flat on expectations of a US export halt. Spot gold and silver are posting respective losses of 2.7% and 5.2%. Bitcoin is lower by 1.4%. 

US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and March Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), February Leading Index, January new home sales and wholesale trade sales (10am) and 4Q household change in net worth (12pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.6%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -2.1%,
  • DAX -2.4%,
  • CAC 40 -1.8%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.30%
  • VIX +0.6 points at 25.69
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.01
  • euro +0.2% at $1.1474
  • WTI crude +1.8% at $98.07/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Escalating attacks on Persian Gulf oil-and-gas infrastructure are sending the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a dangerous new phase that threatens to worsen the crisis over global energy supplies. WSJ
  • The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran, according to a senior administration official, in an enormous new ask that is almost certain to run into resistance from lawmakers opposed to the conflict. WaPo
  • Trump said an angry Israel had "violently lashed out" and attacked Iran's major gas field, a significant escalation in the U.S.-Israeli war, but said Israel would not make further such attacks unless Iran retaliated. RTRS
  • Trump's administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter. RTRS
  • Global benchmark Brent’s premium over US-focused WTI jumped to a 12-year high, highlighting how the Middle East conflict is hitting Asia and Europe harder than the US. BBG
  • Top Senate Democrats Schumer, Warren and Wyden plan to urge President Trump to end tariffs, issue refunds and stop the Iran war, arguing his policies are raising costs, Semafor reported.
  • China’s rate markets are signaling reduced prospects for monetary easing. Meanwhile, the PBOC vowed to maintain stable financial markets while implementing moderately loose monetary policy. BBG
  • The BoJ kept policy settings steady Thursday against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East and volatile energy markets but stuck to its stance of continuing to seek rate hikes. The central bank maintained its policy rate at 0.75%, extending a pause stretching back to its last hike in December. WSJ
  • UK unemployment held steady in February as payrolls rose, signaling labor market stabilization. Payrolls increased 20,000 and the jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2%, both beating expectations. BBG
  • The ECB and BOE are both set to hold rates steady today, but the real focus is any guidance on the economic impact of the Iran conflict and what it may mean for policy. BBG
  • Sen. Thom Tillis said Wednesday that lawmakers are “very close” to an agreement to resolve a lobbying spat between banks and digital asset firms that could clear a path forward for landmark cryptocurrency legislation to advance in the Senate. Politico
  • Global benchmark Brent’s premium over US-focused WTI jumped to a 12-year high, highlighting how the Middle East conflict is hitting Asia and Europe harder than the US, MLIV said. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined as the region took its cue from the losses stateside, where the major indices suffered amid higher oil prices and yields, following energy infrastructure attacks in the Middle East and hawkish Powell comments. ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in miners, materials and real estate, with sentiment not helped by mixed jobs data. Nikkei 225 suffered from the higher oil prices and as markets awaited the BoJ policy decision, which provided no major surprises, while the attention now turns to more central bank announcements, as well as the Trump-Takaichi summit later. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad risk-off mood with tech hit by weakness in semiconductors and following Tencent's earnings, while miners and airlines were also pressured after a decline in metal prices and surge in oil.

Top Asian News

  • China's Industry Minister said China is to focus on advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, and frontier new materials; called for exploring AI application in materials research, testing, and production.
  • China's government releases list of policies to strengthen, benefit and enrich the agricultural sector during this year. said policies cover subsidies for soybean, corn planting and producing, also covers cultivated land facility protection subsidies. Policies cover subsidies for inter-provincial employment and transportation subsidies.
  • Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said decided on energy subsidy as an emergency step, adds FX movements have been driven partly by speculators. Speculators can move easily due to the Bank of Japan and the summit. There has been some speculative trading in oil markets and authorities will do their utmost to respond to currency moves at any time. The ministry is prepared to take necessary actions against market volatility and is watching financial markets with an extremely high level of vigilance.

European Bourses are broadly lower as renewed attacks on energy infrastructure weigh on risk sentiment. The DAX 40 underperforms, pressured by Vonovia despite its return to profitability and plans to sell around EUR 5bln in assets to reduce debt. Sectors are weak across the board. Basic Resources lag as precious metals decline, while Travel & Leisure also underperforms. Energy is the relative outperformer, supported by elevated prices and policy support in Italy, benefiting names such as Eni.

Top European News

  • UK Unemployment Rate (Jan) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.2%, Low. 5.2%, High. 5.3%).
  • UK Employment Change (Jan) 84K vs. Exp. -4K (Prev. 52K).
  • UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Jan) 3.8% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.2%, Low. 4.0%, High. 4.3%).

FX

  • DXY is flat but off lows, holding above 100 in a 99.99–100.31 range as higher oil prices and a hawkish Fed backdrop support the dollar. Powell signalled policy remains restrictive with no imminent cuts, reinforcing inflation concerns tied to the Middle East energy shock.
  • JPY is firmer post-BoJ, driven by hawkish signals from Governor Ueda highlighting improving wage momentum. USD/JPY trades towards the lower end of a 159.04–159.87 range.
  • EUR is flat, with USD recovery capping upside while elevated energy prices limit downside ahead of the ECB. Focus is on whether the ECB shifts to a more hawkish tone amid rising inflation risks, though growth concerns remain. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1443–1.1491 range.
  • GBP trades subdued, sitting near the bottom of a 1.3245–1.3298 range as USD strength offsets limited domestic drivers. BoE expected to hold, with potential dovish dissent, though the energy shock may anchor a unanimous decision.
  • CHF is weaker post-SNB after explicit FX intervention language signals readiness to counter excessive strength. Initial CHF weakness pares as this stance was largely expected, with EUR/CHF moving up towards 0.9100.
  • SEK trades largely unchanged following the Riksbank decision, which keeps policy steady and maintains flexibility amid uncertainty from the Middle East-driven energy shock.
  • Antipodeans are firmer, recovering recent losses. NZD/USD shrugs off weak GDP, while AUD/USD remains choppy after mixed labour data, with gains supported by broader USD stabilisation.

Central Banks

  • BoJ kept its short-term rates at 0.75%, as unanimously forecast, with the decision made by 8-1 vote, as board member Takata voted for a 25bps hike. BoJ refrained from any major surprises, reiterating that it will continue to raise policy rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts and will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. Furthermore, it stated the economy is likely to continue growing moderately and inflation expectations have risen moderately, while consumer inflation is likely to briefly slow below 2% and re-accelerate due to the impact of rising oil prices, with the price trend is to be in line with the goal in the second half of the outlook.
  • SNB maintains its Policy rate at 0.00% as expected; prepared to intervene in currency markets to country currency appreciation if needed; "willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". The statement points to heightened uncertainty given the Middle East conflict. The main point of the statement was the FX language, commentary that sparked immediate pressure in the CHF as the SNB stated explicitly that it would counter rapid and excessive appreciation.
  • Riksbank leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected; rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come. The Riksbank has kept its optionality open in whether the Middle East shock will lead to tighter or looser or monetary policy. A point evidenced by the scenario analysis that explores the avenues that could lead to either option. Additionally, the forecast adjustment for 2026 underscores this with the CPIF view increased while the growth view has been cut. But, pertinently, the policy path projection is unchanged vs the last MPR.
  • Norges Bank Q1 Regional Network Survey: Expect minor changes in output growth in the period to summer. Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.
  • Brazilian Interest Rate Decision 14.75% vs. Exp. 14.75% (Prev. 15%), decision was unanimous. BCB reaffirms serenity and caution. Future interest rate decisions will incorporate new information on Middle East conflict depth and duration. Committee deemed it appropriate to begin the monetary policy calibration cycle.
  • Taiwan Central Bank leaves rates unchanged at 2.00%, as expected.

Fixed Income

  • UST are bearish following the hawkish tone from Powell and continued strength in energy prices. Futures drop around 15 ticks post-Fed, holding near session lows around 111-08 as higher oil and gas prices reinforce inflation concerns and keep yields elevated.
  • Bund futures are weaker, down 40 ticks at most with a trough near 125.70 as surging Dutch TTF gas and elevated crude push ECB pricing more hawkish. Focus turns to the ECB, which is expected to hold rates but likely revise inflation higher and growth lower.
  • Gilts underperform, gapping lower by 92 ticks and extending to an 88.32 low amid the global fixed income sell-off driven by energy and central bank hawkishness. Attention turns to the BoE, where rates are expected unchanged, with focus on the vote split and policy guidance.
  • France sold EUR 12.399 vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 2.40% 2029, 2.50% 2030, 2.70% 2031 and 3.50% 2033 OAT.
  • Spain sold EUR 5.546 vs exp. EUR 5.0-6.0bln 2.60% 2031, 2.55% 2032 and 3.30% 2036 Bono.

Commodities

  • Crude futures surge on escalation in the Iran war, with attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait driving a sharp risk premium. Brent approaches USD 119.5/bbl at peak, with WTI lagging and trading at a wide ~USD 12/bbl discount, the largest spread since 2015. The disruption is amplified by threats to alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu, a key Red Sea export hub used to bypass Hormuz, although prices pull back slightly after reports loadings resume.
  • Spot gold extends losses, breaking below USD 4,700/oz as a firmer USD and rising rate expectations (driven by energy-led inflation risk) outweigh safe-haven demand despite ongoing conflict.
  • Base metals remain under pressure in a risk-off environment. Copper erases 2026 gains as higher oil prices weigh on global growth expectations and demand, with prices trading in a USD 12,041–12,326/t range.
  • Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port reportedly resumes oil loadings, sources say. This comes following reports that oil loading were stopped.
  • Gazprom said Ukraine increased attacks on Turkstream and Bluestream pipelines on 17-19th March; said all attacks were foiled.
  • Abu Dhabi government noted operations have been suspended at the Habshan gas facility, while authorities are dealing with two incidents of falling debris from successfully intercepted missiles that targeted that gas facility.

Geopolitics

  • Iran's armed forces said Iran's retaliation against attacks on its energy infrastructure is not yet complete, SNN reported.
  • Iranian lawmaker said parliament is mulling passing a bill that would impose toll and tax on ships seeking safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, ISNA reported.
  • US embassy says Americans should leave Saudi Arabia immediately.
  • US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and the US did not know about the attack, while he called for no more attacks by Israel on South Pars and threatens the US will retaliate if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.
  • US officials say President Trump wants no more energy strikes but supported the attack on South Pars, and could once again be open to targeting additional Iranian energy facilities depending on Iran's actions in Strait of Hormuz, according to WSJ.
  • US President Trump's administration is considering deploying thousands of additional US troops to the Middle East as Trump weighs Iran next steps, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • US Pentagon seeks more than USD 200bln in budget requests for Iran war, according to Washington Post.
  • Israeli official said war has moved into a new phase and may last several more weeks.
  • Saudi Foreign Minister said Iran must review 'misjudgements', and attacks will bring no gains, demands Iran stop proxy support and protect maritime navigation immediately, adds Iran has dealt with neighbours not in a brotherhood but with a hostile view. Added that Saudi Arabia reserves the right to take military action against Iran.
  • Saudi Arabia's Defence Ministry said a drone has fallen on the Samref refinery, currently assessing the damage.
  • Missile reportedly hit the Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, according to Iran's semi official SNN.
  • Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said one of the operational units at Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery was targeted on Thursday by a drone, resulting in limited fire, no casualties reported.
  • QatarEnergy said natural gas and LNG facilities at were subjected to missile attacks causing fire and more severe damage.
  • French President Macron said he spoke with the Emir of Qatar and President Trump following the strikes that hit gas production sites in Iran and Qatar. Said, "It is in the common interest to implement without delay a moratorium on strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and water infrastructure.".
  • Security sources say a drone attack targets Iraqi naval forces based near Umm Qasr Port, although no casualties or damage that were reported.
  • Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah announces suspension of attacks on the US embassy for five days, subject to conditions.
  • The escalation on the Lebanon front may continue regardless of the Iran war, Al Arabiya reported citing an Israeli security source.
  • Russia's Kremlin said trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations are on pause, but investment talks are to continue

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets resumed their slide yesterday, with bonds and equities slumping amid an escalation in strikes against energy infrastructure across the Middle East, which led President Trump to call for a de-escalation of strikes against gas facilities overnight. Brent crude (+3.83%) reached its highest closing level since July 2022 at $107.38/bbl and has extended its advance to $111.78/bbl this morning. Together with a more watchful tone on inflation from Chair Powell after the Fed’s on hold decision last night, this sent investors pricing out the likelihood of rate cuts this year. And if that wasn’t enough, the US PPI surprised on the upside yesterday, so there was little respite anywhere on the inflation side. With the prospect of a stagflation shock back on the agenda, the S&P 500 (-1.36%) fell back to its lowest level since November, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+6.7bps) was back up to 4.27%.

The escalating tone out of the Middle East yesterday started after Tehran said airstrikes hit Iran’s South Pars natural gas field. That’s significant because it marked the first strike on their upstream facilities since the current war began. In turn, that led Iran to threaten retaliation, publishing a list of energy sites across the Gulf that they said were targets. And late in the US session we saw news that a missile strike against Qatar’s LNG export facilities resulted in “extensive damage”. We’ve since had some signs of the US seeking to contain the escalation. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump didn’t want any more strikes against Iran’s energy sites, and the President himself posted late last night that the US knew nothing of Israel’s attack against the South Pars gas field. President Trump added that “no more attacks will be made by Israel” against South Pars if Iran stops its own strikes, though he also threated to “blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field” if Iran again attacked Qatar LNG.

Despite those comments, oil markets remain on edge in Asia this morning amid fears that energy infrastructure could be meaningfully damaged. Brent crude is up +4.10% to $111.78/bbl this morning after a slightly smaller gain through the European close yesterday. And with concern mounting about a more protracted conflict, the 6-month Brent future (+2.80%) moved up to a post-2023 high of $88.19/bbl yesterday. Interestingly, WTI crude has seen a more modest increase, trading at $96.92/bbl this morning. That’s less than a dollar above Tuesday’s close, leaving the Brent-WTI spread at its widest since WTI briefly traded in negative territory during the Covid pandemic in April 2020. This also comes as Trump administration officials are expected to meet oil sector executives today.

Against that backdrop, we had the Fed’s latest decision. As widely expected, the FOMC kept rates on hold at 3.50-3.75%, with Governor Miran the dissent in favour of a rate cut. The median SEP dot continued to pencil in one rate cut this year, though some of the more dovish members trimmed their expectations for rate cuts. Hawkish nuances were then more evident in Powell’s press conference. While the Chair unsurprisingly said that the uncertainty stemming from the events in the Middle East creates risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, it is the inflation outlook that drew more of his attention. Powell argued that the Fed needs to see “progress on inflation” to cut rates again later this year, noting that core goods disinflation was “really important” in this respect. Powell also removed a line on core services disinflation from his prepared remarks. All this left a sense of increased concern about the continued overshoot of the inflation target, though he did say that a “vast majority” of the FOMC did not anticipate rate hikes. In all, our US economists see Powell’s comments as suggesting that the case for rate cuts has weakened but remains stronger than the case for hikes. See their full reaction here.

Away from policy, Powell said that he plans to stay on the Fed board until the current DoJ investigation into him is “well and truly over”, also adding that he had not yet decided whether he would otherwise continue to serve his term as Governor which ends in January 2028. So while Powell’s term as Fed Chair is due to end in May, this leaves open the prospect of him remaining as chair pro-tempore beyond this if President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh isn’t confirmed by the Senate by then. Note that Senator Tom Tillis has said he won’t advance Warsh’s nomination until the investigation into Powell is resolved.

Powell’s press conference solidified the move higher in rates, which then further extended after the news of Iranian strikes damaging Qatar’s LNG plant. By the close, fed funds futures priced just 15bps of rate cuts by December (-10.9bps on the day), with the 2yr Treasury yield rising by +10.1bps to 3.78%, its highest since August last year. That’s despite policy rates being 75bps lower now than they were at the time. The sell-off was slightly more modest at the long-end, with 10yr yields up +6.7bps to 4.27%.

The backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks and higher rates weighed on risk assets, with the S&P 500 closing -1.36% lower. The decline was very broad-based with all 24 sector groups within the S&P 500 lower on the day as the index saw the most decliners (422) so far this year. Other asset classes also struggled, with gold (-3.74%) and bitcoin (-4.44%) slumping, while the dollar (+0.51%) advanced against all the G10 currencies as it benefited from safe haven flows.

The risk mood has remained cautious overnight. While US equity futures are little changed, Asian equities have continued the overnight losses on Wall Street. Across the region, the Nikkei (-3.25%) is the largest underperformer following the Bank of Japan's on hold decision. In other markets, the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.62%), the Hang Seng (-1.66%), the KOSPI (-2.52%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.95%), and the CSI (-0.99%) are all also showing significant declines.

In terms of the details on the BoJ, the central bank maintained its overnight call rate at 0.75% in an 8-1 decision. Hajime Takata was the only dissenter, advocating for a 25bps hike for the second consecutive meeting due to rising inflation risks. The bank noted that while inflation is anticipated to temporarily slow below 2% in the short term due to a deceleration in rice price increases, the conflict in the Middle East is expected to exert "upward pressure, influenced by the recent increase in crude oil prices." So a hawkish leaning take on the energy risks. Following the decision, 10yr JGB yield are up +4.6bps to 2.27%. The Japanese yen is a touch stronger against the dollar (+0.13%), though at 159.60 it remains within touching distance of its weakest level since mid-2024. We’ll be hearing from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference shortly after we got to print. This may provide further policy guidance, with swaps currently pricing a 60% chance of a hike at the next BoJ meeting in April.

Turning back to yesterday’s moves, investors’ concerns about inflation weren’t helped by the US PPI print. That was for February, so doesn’t account for the impact of the recent energy spike, but it still came in above expectations. It showed monthly headline PPI at +0.7% (vs. +0.3% expected), which pushed the year-on-year reading up to +3.4% (vs. +3.0% expected). So that added to a pro-inflationary backdrop with the US 1yr inflation swap surging another +18.6bps yesterday to 3.32%, its highest level since September.

Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight with both the ECB and Bank of England announcing their latest decisions today. For the ECB, it’s widely expected they’ll follow the Fed and the BoJ in keeping rates on hold. However, the Iran conflict has led to a big shift in pricing since the last meeting, with markets now pricing in an ECB rate hike by July and two hikes by the end of the year. So today the focus will be on how they communicate around that, and our European economists think they’ll acknowledge higher uncertainty and the upside risks to near-term inflation. They also think there’ll be a strong message that underlines the ECB’s commitment to price stability, and that they’re willing to act to avoid a repeat of the 2022-23 inflation shock. Indeed, they point out that saying this loudly and clearly might be the best way of ensuring inflation expectations stay well anchored. For more details, see their full preview here.

Shortly beforehand, we’ll also get the BoE decision, where they’re widely expected to keep rates on hold as well. As with the ECB, market pricing has seen a significant hawkish shift, having gone from pricing further cuts before the Iran strikes, to an 85% chance of a hike by December. For today, our UK economist thinks there’ll be a 7-2 vote, with the minority still preferring a 25bp rate cut. And looking forward, he expects them to message that there’s little need to adjust policy to a more restrictive stance right now. However, he also thinks they’ll signal that the assumed disinflation path to 2% looks less likely. See his full preview here for more.

Ahead of those decisions, European markets struggled yesterday, with the latest oil spike driving losses across the continent, particularly as investors priced in more rate hikes. So the STOXX 600 (-0.75%) and the DAX (-0.96%) saw their biggest decline in the last week. Moreover, sovereign bonds lost ground across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.4bps), OATs (+4.0bps) and BTPs (+7.1bps) all moving back up again. Those moves came as the 1yr EUR inflation swap spiked by 32bps to 3.49%, its highest since April 2023.

Looking at the day ahead, and the main highlights will be the policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. Otherwise, data releases include UK unemployment for January, the US weekly initial jobless claims, and US new home sales for January. Today also marks the start of a two-day EU leaders’ summit. Higher energy prices will be a big topic, though our economists expect that for now the policy response will be focused on country-level energy tax cuts 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 08:51

Tit-For-Tat Gulf Attacks Spark Energy Market Chaos; Trump Distances US From Israeli Actions, Macron Urges Direct Talks

Zero Hedge -

Tit-For-Tat Gulf Attacks Spark Energy Market Chaos; Trump Distances US From Israeli Actions, Macron Urges Direct Talks Summary
  • Trump dials up threat, seeking leverage, denies approving Israeli Pars strikes: however, reports from The Wall Street Journal and Axios say the White House was aware. US sending more troops to region.

  • Energy war hits breaking point: tit-for-tat strikes are now directly targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, with Qatar's Ras Laffan damaged, KSA, Kuwait, Bahrain sites attacked; Saudi trust in Iran "completely shattered."

  • Europe pushes off-ramp, refuses entry into conflict: Macron urges direct talks  “reckless escalation,” while Friedrich Merz signals support for de-escalation—Brussels’ stance: “This is not our war.”

  • Iran signals not done exacting revenge: IRGC warns retaliation "not yet finished," vowing escalating strikes across region as Gulf states, Iraq, and shipping lanes absorb widening fallout.

  • Strait of Hormuz a de facto economic war zone as prices rise at the pump with oil spiraling higher: Iran's parliament is floating tolls on shipping - weaponizing control.

*  *  *

US Sending More Troops To Region, Eyes Ultra-Risky Kharg/Hormuz Op

There remain few (or no) options for guaranteeing tanker traffic through Hormuz. After the Pentagon bombed some 90 military sites on Iran's oil export hub Kharg Island last weekend, the US is running up against the obvious limitations of a purely air and naval campaign.

In a scenario that screams escalation, discussions now include deploying US troops directly to Iran's coastline to secure the passage, per Reuters and others. The even more aggressive option is potential ground operations targeting Kharg - again given it is the nerve center handling roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Of course, Trump strongly campaigned against such a scenario as 'boots on the ground' in a new regime change war. The admin has also been busy vowing 'no quagmire'

Trump Threatens To "Massively Blow Up" South Pars, Tries To Distance US & Israel Ops

In a late-night Truth Social post, President Trump has once again cranked the rhetoric to eleven, warning he'll "massively blow up" Iran’s crown jewel gas field if Tehran dares hit Qatar’s LNG infrastructure again. Trump insisted the US "knew nothing" about Wednesday's Israeli strike on the shared South Pars field, claiming neither did Qatar, while simultaneously declaring "no more attacks will be made by Israel" there - unless Iran escalates.

Then came the kicker: "In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before," he wrote.

However, US media reports have been quick to say otherwise - that the US did actually know about it and greenlit the risky escalation. The Wall Street Journal reports the White House was aware - and also Axios' Barak Ravid insists so too, and he's seen as very close to the Israeli government.

Heavy Air War Ongoing Amid Potential Energy Point of No Return

Meanwhile, the Gulf is still being lit up by tit-for-tat major attacks on energy, as Western populations brace for severe impact at the gas pumps. Iran's retaliation is already hitting energy nodes across the region after Israel's Wednesday South Pars strike, pushing tensions with neighbors past a potential point of no return. Qatar quickly expelled Iranian military attaches after missiles caused "extensive damage" at Ras Laffan - its main LNG export hub, while Saudi officials say "the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered."

AFP/Getty Images: Emirates aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport on March 16

The air war is continuing against Iran, with retaliatory strikes still raining down on Israel, but reportedly at slower pace when compared to the opening days of the war. A strike in western Iran's Dorud county reportedly killed at least a dozen civilians, Al Jazeera has reported.

Iran Signals No Signs Of Stopping Revenge Attacks

Tehran, however, is signaling the opposite of de-escalation, perhaps seeing Trump's latest Truth Social post claiming no foreknowledge of the Israeli attack on Pars as a sign of weakness. A spokesman for the IRGC Khatam has newly warned retaliation is "not yet finished," adding:

"We warn the enemy that you made a major mistake by attacking the energy infrastructure of … Iran… the next attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until their complete destruction."

Kuwait: Iranian drones attacked one of the largest oil refineries, Al-Ahmadi Refinery.

The last 24 hours saw unprecedented destruction on key Gulf energy sites, summarized in the following:

  • Separately, UAE authorities said they were responding to incidents at the Habshan gas facilities and at the Bab oilfield caused by falling debris from intercepted missiles. The Abu Dhabi Media Office said the facilities were shut down and no injuries were reported.
  • Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed four ballistic missiles launched towards Riyadh on Wednesday and an attempted drone attack on a gas facility in its east. On Thursday, Iran targeted the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
  • Attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain were also reported.

Elsewhere, Iraq has shut its airspace, vessels are taking hits in the Gulf, with on Wednesday Trade Winds having reported: "A ship is on fire after being hit by an unknown projectile near the United Arab Emirates deepwater port of Khor Fakkan."

WTI-Brent Spread Explodes As U.S. Export Ban Priced In 

RBC Capital Markets analyst Julian Triscott told clients, "Our boots on the ground in D.C. suggest the administration favors a crude export tariff over an outright ban, though a full ban remains a tail risk."

Triscott said the Trump administration is likely weighing intervention in the oil market as gasoline and diesel prices at the pump surge, with a crude export tariff seen as more likely than an outright export ban, though the analyst said a full ban is still a major risk.

Triscott said the idea would be to shield U.S. consumers by making crude exports less attractive to foreign buyers, while potentially offsetting the impact with a pause or reduction in the federal fuel excise tax.

Triscott pointed out that traders are already beginning to price in this next intervention, with the WTI–Brent spread widening to its highest level since about 2012.

Triscott's conversation with sources in D.C. about what the Trump administration may do next to combat surging pump prices comes as the Trump administration appears to be following the six-option playbook laid out by JPMorgan analysts last week.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration waived the Jones Act to allow foreign vessels to ship crude to US ports. That was Option 3 on the list, while last week's SPR release was Option 1. Option 2 is export restrictions.

We suspect the administration is following the six-point playbook, and here's what may come next (read the report).

Energy Market Shockwaves After Iranian Attacks on Gulf Energy Assets

Brent crude futures surged toward $120/bbl, while WTI remained muted around $96/bbl, as Wednesday marked a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Israeli fighter jets struck Iran's giant South Pars gas field with air-delivered munitions, triggering a retaliatory chain reaction in which IRGC forces targeted critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Iranian drone and missile strikes caused heavy damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, while gas plants in Abu Dhabi shut down, Kuwaiti refineries were hit by drones, and Saudi refining assets on the Red Sea were targeted.

Unlike temporary shipping disruptions in the Gulf waters or the Strait of Hormuz, damage to upstream energy assets, such as production and LNG facilities, is far more serious and could take months or even years to repair, raising the risk of prolonged tight global supply.

Read overnight report:

Some 20% of global LNG exports originate from Gulf countries, and the latest round of Israeli and IRGC attacks on upstream energy assets shows how the conflict has entered an entirely new phase where energy infrastructure is being directly targeted.

Disruptions at Qatar's LNG facilities threaten to tighten the global gas market, with ripple effects quickly spreading worldwide - across Asia, Europe, and even U.S. gas prices.

European natural gas benchmark futures jumped as much as 35% today, pushing prices to more than double their pre-war levels, as traders brace for what only appears to be a prolonged period of disruption from critical LNG hubs that account for a fifth of the world's total supply.

QatarEnergy warned earlier that LNG facilities inside its Ras Laffan Industrial City were attacked by missiles, "causing sizable fires and extensive further damage."

"This could be a game changer for the LNG industry, akin to the attack on Nord Stream or possibly even worse," Susan Sakmar, visiting assistant professor at the University of Houston Law Center, said, quoted by Bloomberg. "This is a sudden disruption, with no indication that Qatar could restart anytime soon."

Global Risk Management analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warned, "LNG from Qatar could in principle be offline for months and, in the worst case, for years. For the gas market, the crisis does not end simply because the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens."

UBS analyst Matt Salmon commented on the exploding energy risk premia due to overnight war developments:

Geopolitical risk premia in the energy complex rose further following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, after President Trump failed earlier this week to establish an international coalition to support the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In a clear escalation of hostilities, Iranian energy infrastructure was targeted for the first time in the conflict, with Israel striking the South Pars gas field, while the US claimed no prior knowledge.

Iran had warned early in the conflict that there would be "no red lines" around retaliatory actions, and it made good on this threat with two strikes in less than 12 hours on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world's largest LNG facility, with state operator QatarEnergy reporting "extensive damage."

Trump subsequently pressed for de-escalation of attacks on gas facilities in Iran, but moves in Brent were muted, reflecting diminishing confidence that the US has a credible off-ramp. Brent crude is currently trading around $112/bbl, Asian LNG prices are above $20/bbl, and Asian refining margin proxies exceed $40/bbl, amid rising investor anxiety over disruptions to global fuel and gas supplies.

Macron Urges Direct Talks: 'Return to Reason'

At a moment Gulf shipping lanes are freezing up with tankers idling in the Gulf of Oman waiting for a greenlight through what's been for most a no-go zone, Iranian lawmakers have proposed a plan to impose tolls and taxes on ships passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz - which of course would not include passage of US and Israeli ships, or others deemed participants of Operation Epic Fury.

Europe is watching nervously from the sidelines, itching for some kind of presentable offramp, also after NATO allies this week snubbed joining Trump's coalition to seek to militarily open the strait back up to global shipping. Germany's Friedrich Merz welcomed signals that Trump might dial things back, saying "I am particularly grateful that the US president sent a signal last night that he prepared to bring the fighting to an end" - while France’s Emmanuel Macron warned of a "reckless escalation" as energy infrastructure becomes the primary battlefield, and so has called for direct talks between Washington and Tehran. Here's what he said in part before an EU leaders' summit in Brussels on Thursday:

"We will obviously defend a de-escalation, a return to stability in the Middle East," Macron said, adding that he spoke to Qatari emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Donald Trump about the war on Wednesday night.

"I think that everyone should calm down and the fighting should stop at least for a few days to try to give negotiations a chance again," the French leader added. "I hope that, in any case, everyone will return to reason."

Brussels' bottom line has consistently been over the last days: "This is not our war."

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 08:40

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Rolls On With Jobless Claims Back Near Record Lows

Zero Hedge -

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Rolls On With Jobless Claims Back Near Record Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to just 205k last week (well below the 215k expected and down from 213k prior). This is back near the lowest reading for initial claims ever having gone nowhere for five years...

Continuing jobless claims also remain below the 1.9 million Maginot Line, showing no sign of increasing layoffs...

Finally, as a reminder, sentiment surveys suggest the labor market is bifurcated with 'jobs hard to get' but joblessness not surging...

That chart reinforces the 'no hire, no fire' economy remains the status quo - no worse, no better.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 08:36

UK Gilt Yields Explode Higher On Surprise BoE Rate-Hike Threat

Zero Hedge -

UK Gilt Yields Explode Higher On Surprise BoE Rate-Hike Threat

The Bank of England shocked markets this morning, signaling that it is prepared to raise rates to counter a pickup in inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East.

Specifically,t he BoE said it would act to counter the pickup in inflation if it threatened to become persistent, but faced high levels of uncertainty about the outlook and would seek greater clarity before deciding on the path for interest rates.

"I will be monitoring developments extremely closely and stand ready to act as necessary to ensure inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target," said Gov. Andrew Bailey.

Before attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel began late last month, the U.K.'s central bank had been expected to lower borrowing costs at this week's meeting of its policymakers.

However, the conflict has sent energy prices surging, while its impact on fertilizer costs is likely to see a revival of food inflation.

Instead of cutting, the BoE left its key interest rate at 3.75%, a reflection of how the conflict has changed the outlook for economies around the world.

In doing so, the BoE matched the Federal Reserve's decision Wednesday. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan have made the same call, as have the central banks of Sweden and Switzerland earlier Thursday. The European Central Bank is soon expected to follow suit later Thursday.

Ahead of today, there had been expectations that there could still be dovish dissent on the MPC. The 9-0 vote in favour of unchanged rates has rebuffed such expectations. 

The response to the 'hawkish hold' was dramatic with 2Y Gilt yields exploding 30bps higher...

For context, that is highest 2Y Yield since Jan 2025 with yields up a stunning 90bps since the war began!

As The Wall Street Journal writes, for the BOE, as for other central banks, the key question is how long the period of higher energy costs will last, and what impact it will have on the prices of other goods and services.

Officials at the U.K.'s central bank have been chastened by their experience in 2022, when a surge in energy and food prices following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to a jump in wage demands, and higher prices for a range of labor-intensive services.

As a result, inflation stayed above their target for longer than they had expected.

 

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 08:25

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