My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• 11 Data Points and Discoveries That Stuck With Us in 2025: Squinting at a table, or a list, or a rough chart to divine meaning from it led to some memorable examples of process paying off: a few numbers, the shape of a line, or the pattern on a map led to more exploration and analysis. (New York Times)

• Fighting Trends Isn’t a Strategy. It’s a Personality Flaw. During every bull market, I inevitably get labeled a “permabull,” usually by people who spend their time fighting trends instead of participating in them. They want me to turn bearish while prices are going up, largely because they’ve already decided not to be involved. For some reason, that decision needs validation. (Trend Labs) see also Everyday Traders Go From Fringe Players to Dominant Market Force: It was the biggest year for individual investors since the GameStop frenzy of 2021. ‘It’s not a passing trend.’ (Wall Street Journal)

• The “Hottest” Economy? Markets Tell a Different Story. The U.S. economy entered 2025 as the “envy of the world.” It exited well behind its peers. (The Bulwark)

• A Birkin Looks Better on Your Arm Than in a Hedge Fund: Now I can even partake. Luxus, the aptly named asset manager, has a hedge fund that buys Hermes Birkin and Kelly bags on the secondary market and then flips them. The first round raised $1 million, bought 36 bags, sold them and claimed it earned a 40.6% return. There are plans to grow in 2026. (Bloomberg)

• The Top Risks of 2026 with Ian Bremmer & Eurasia Group: Top Risks is Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. (Eurasia Group)

• The Condo Market Hasn’t Been This Bad in Over a Decade: Condo prices this fall posted their biggest declines since 2012, hit by rising homeowner-association dues and weaker demand. (Wall Street Journal)

• 24 million fewer vehicles: One year of congestion pricing in New York City: Traffic is down, commutes are faster, and air quality has improved in America’s largest city in the 12 months since the program took effect. (Fast Company)

• Trump says Venezuela stole U.S. oil, land and assets. Here’s the history. The government of the oil-rich nation took control of its petroleum industry in 1976, nationalizing hundreds of private businesses and foreign-owned assets. (Washington Post)

• How Trump Became the Unlikely Champion of Easing Marijuana Restrictions: Concerted lobbying push by a cannabis CEO, a Florida sheriff and a Mar-a-Lago member helped persuade the president. (Wall Street Journal) see also 5 recent scientific findings that change what we know about cannabis: As legal restrictions loosen, scientists are investigating long held beliefs that cannabis has few side effects and can effectively relieve pain. (National Geographic)

• The 8 ways that all the elements in the Universe are made: There are over 100 known elements in the periodic table. These 8 ways of making them account for every one. (Big Think)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephanie Drescher, Apollo’s Chief Client and Product Development Officer. She oversees everything from the global wealth business to portfolio management, product development, and client marketing. She is a member of the firm’s leadership team. Since 2020, Barron’s has named her annually to its list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance.

 

Google Trends for 2025 news topics

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

First Venezuela, Next Iran?

Top US officials have been eager to capitalize on the Trump-ordered military raid on Caracas, which saw the Venezuelan capital bombed and its longtime socialist leader Nicolás Maduro captured without major incident and transferred to US soil where's facing federal drug charges related to narco-trafficking and gun-running.

Hawkish pundits are already clamoring for more muscular action targeting Tehran (and other supposed 'rogue' actors) at a moment of ongoing economic protests in Iran pressuring Islamic Republic leaders. Trump is issuing veiled threats to the governments of Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico - but many are asking: is Iran next? Various open source intelligence channels (OSINT) on Sunday have highlighted some unusual American military activity in the UK and Europe, for example...

Something unusual appears to be going on today at RAF Fairford near Gloucestershire in the United Kingdom, with at least 10 C-17A Globemaster IIIs with the U.S. Air Force arriving at the base or currently crossing the Atlantic from the United States. Almost all of the C-17s… https://t.co/LfyTSdEsQr

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 3, 2026

It's hard to know if this constitutes the usual Pentagon logistical operations in Europe, but it does indeed raise questions regarding Washington's force posture vis-a-vis Iran. 

One theme of the last several months of Trump's military build-up in the southern Caribbean has been that in sending so many warships to Venezuelan waters, including at least one nuclear-powered submarine and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group, is that this level of military asset concentration in Latin America means less deadly or long-range assets in the Middle East (CENTCOM) area of operation.

But could we be witnessing a quick pivot, now with Maduro awaiting trial in New York?

There are various things to consider when it comes to potential White House discussions on the matter. First, it must be recalled that Trump wisely declared mission accomplished when US bombers 'obliterated' (in the US estimation) Iran's three most important nuclear development sites at the tail-end of the June Israel-Iran war, which lasted just 12 days. There was no sustained American bombing campaign against Iran, also as Trump knows that "doing another Iraq" would be hugely unpopular at home.

There's another difficult reality when it comes to US actions targeting Iran, which behind Venezuela also possesses among the world's biggest proven reserves of crude oil. Iran is a country of over 90 million people, has a large military overseen by the elite IRGC, has long been 'military tested' (the 1980's Iran-Iraq war comes to mind), and has one of the world's premier arsenals of mid and long-range ballistic missiles. It even posses hypersonic capabilities (which the Israelis also learned). Because of this, last June Israeli warplanes were careful to operate largely outside Iranian airspace, and even though many anti-air missile sites were allegedly destroyed, this threat remains strong.

Reports of more IRGC missile tests over Iran Sunday night into Monday...

First images have already appeared, in Iranian and Israeli media. https://t.co/6BbvbNo9m7

— Conflict Radar (@Conflict_Radar) January 4, 2026

Trump will of course leave people guessing in his 'shoot from the hip' fashion. After all, the operation to topple Maduro was held as a tightly guarded secret even from many top Pentagon officials (in terms of the timing and "need to know" details just before it was launched). Here's what one Conservative, anti-Iran pundit has to say:

First Venezuela, next Iran. These military flights signify a barrel of whoop-ass, not just a can. Likely, these show deployments of the 101st Airborne AND the 1st Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment.

The US Navy Fleet Tracker is oddly dark as well. We have 11 Aircraft Carriers, look at the 12/29/25 update compared to the 03/17/25 update. We are no longer posturing, we are in OPSEC mode. In Kuwait, the USA maintains roughly 13,500 troops at any given time. These troops serve as a Middle East response force (among other missions).

So why are the 1/75 Rangers and 101st Airborne deployments significant? The 75th Ranger Regiment's primary mission is airfield seizures. The 101st is an Air Assault unit. The USA just moved a huge strategic asset designed to open the gates of hell into whatever country we choose.

And as for keeping people guessing, there was this remark from Trump just days ahead of the operation to kidnap Maduro. "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go," Trump posted on Truth Social last Monday.

Would Russia comes to Iran's defense if it is threatened with large-scale military action? Certainly the vehement condemnations would fly from Moscow, but Russia's military is obviously busy doing other things...

Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country’s interests. Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. Lex fortissimum is clearly stronger than ordinary justice, but whether they can run Venezuela remotely is a big question.

— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) January 4, 2026

Regardless of if the US deescalates ongoing tensions with Tehran, or if Trump chooses to soon escalate, the Ayatollah and Islamic Republic leaders just got a lot more nervous and uncomfortable as they helplessly watch their longtime ally Maduro being hauled before a US federal court on American soil.

For now the most likely scenario is that Trump will be content to see where the now weeklong protests inside Iran go, as they threaten societal stability, and as the US-led sanctions regimen continues to wreak devastation. It is also likely that he would unleash Israel first, and not send US troops for direct action - akin to what happened in the last June bombing raids.

* * *

"It's time"... another Israeli direct threat aimed at Iran:

הגיע הזמן. pic.twitter.com/yejc37zmr8

— Naftali Bennett נפתלי בנט (@naftalibennett) January 4, 2026

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 18:40

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

Monday:
• Early, Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were moxed over the last week with WTI futures at $57.32 per barrel and Brent at $60.75 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $77 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.77 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.27 year-over-year.

CIA & Palace Insiders: How The Surprise Raid On Maduro Went Down

Since Trump's Venezuela operation went down just over 24 hours ago, there's been an avalanche of reporting detailing the high risk gambit of American forces entering the capital of Caracas to kidnap Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

Admin officials appear eager to spike the proverbial football and divulge the details, akin to what happened after the complex SEAL raid which took out Osama bin Laden, or the later special forces killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria.

First, it has been divulged that President Trump a mere week earlier gave Maduro once last chance to relinquish power willingly in a phone call. "You got to surrender," Trump told the press Saturday in reference to Maduro. Trump referenced that he actually "came close" to stepping down - whereafter he possibly would have headed to safer climes in Dubai, Qatar, or even Moscow (where he could join Assad).

via FOX

But at the very moment the Venezuelan leader was on the phone with Trump, a CIA team was already in country monitoring his every move. According to a variety of fresh reporting in NBC and others, the CIA closely watched where he stayed, what he ate, and how he moved.

Likely the CIA would have been developing local assets over a period of years. An 'asset' can be anyone from local citizens or military officers - or even high ranking Colonels in Generals in the national army. One thing is clear at this point - the Pentagon had 'insider help' within the socialist regime.

Details of what was dubbed "Operation Absolute Resolve" have at this point been revealed by more than a dozen officials across the White House, administration, and Congress. There have also been very clear public remarks, and the obvious fact of the months-long Pentagon build-up in the southern Caribbean.

For example, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan "Raizin" Caine said Saturday that US intelligence even knew the names of Maduro’s pets.

Elite forces had trained for months, which even involved rehearsals at a mock-up of Maduro's compound built from intelligence reports, and troops practiced utilizing "massive blowtorches" in the event they would have to breach steel barriers protecting Maduro’s safe room.

One theme of the new reporting on the secretive operations was just how few in the US administration knew about it. The operation was strictly held to only the highest officials. Even Pentagon officials were unaware of the exact timing until Friday night, two US officials told NBC News.

The mission might have been ordered days before if not for unclear skies, but it finally proceeded Friday night when the weather cleared and it was a full moon. "Good luck and Godspeed," Trump told military commanders upon giving the final order.

The New York Times reports that this is what finally pushed Trump to send Delta Force to storm Caracas and abduct Maduro: https://t.co/e4bmnTgaDy pic.twitter.com/cf1cd03ZCr

— Josh Billinson (@jbillinson) January 4, 2026

Those most directly involved in the planning will also reportedly play roles in governing Venezuela until there is some kind of agreed-upon political transition - including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller.

Below are highlights of different aspects of how the unprecedented successful raid went down in the heart of Latin America, compiled from various sources [emphasis ZH]:

* * *

Brief mission with 'significant resistance'

The mission took about two hours and 20 minutes and continued into early Saturday, when Mr. Maduro and Ms. Flores “gave up,” General Caine said.

U.S. forces encountered significant resistance, Mr. Trump said. At least 40 people were killed, including military personnel and civilians, according to a senior Venezuelan official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe preliminary reports. —NY Times

Helicopters flying low after power cut

At least 150 aircraft flew toward Caracas from 20 different bases on land and sea. The fleet included bombers, fighters and craft that specialized in intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, Caine said. The crews ranged in age from 20 to 49.

Darkness cloaked the Venezuelan capital. Trump suggested that the U.S. had cut the electricity in Caracas to gain an edge in the battle. Flying at 100 feet above the water, helicopters carried the special forces and law enforcement officials who plucked Maduro from his residence, Caine said. Other aircraft fired weapons to disable Venezuela’s air defense systems and clear a path for the helicopters, he added.

Flames were seen billowing from explosions at Fort Tiuna, a large military complex in Caracas. —NBC

The Delta Force breach of Maduro's presidential complex

By 1 a.m. ET Saturday, U.S. soldiers had reached the compound in Caracas where Maduro was staying. “A heavily fortified military fortress,” Trump called it.

When Delta Force breached Maduro’s residence, he and his wife were taken “completely by surprise,” Caine said. Maduro tried to escape into what Trump described as a steel safe room but didn’t make it in time. The forces took Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, into custody.

A firefight broke out after Maduro was captured, Caine said, and a U.S. helicopter was hit. No Americans were killed, though there were several injuries to U.S. troops, all of whom are stable, according to a U.S. official and a White House official.

By 3:30 a.m. ET, U.S. forces were safely out of the country, Caine said. At that time, the air in Caracas smelled of gunpowder and smoke. The U.S. Embassy in Venezuela cautioned American citizens there to shelter in place. —NBC

High placed CIA assets in govt. coordinated the raid

The assets included a CIA source operating within the Venezuelan government who assisted the United States with tracking Maduro’s location and movements ahead of his capture, one source briefed on the operation told CNN.

The detailed timeline and the revelation that a CIA team has been operating inside Venezuela for so long sheds new light on the administration’s pressure campaign on Maduro for the past several months, even as senior officials publicly stated their goal was not regime change. —CNN

The extraction of a sitting head of state

The helicopters with the extraction team reached Maduro’s compound at 2 a.m. local time in Caracas, the general said. Upon arrival, the helicopters came under fire and one was hit but remained flyable. The US returned fire in defense, Caine added.

“As the operation unfolded at the compound, our air and ground intelligence teams provided real-time updates to the ground force, ensuring those forces could safely navigate the complex environment without unnecessary risk,” he said.

Caine said Maduro and his wife “gave up” to the US military personnel before being flown out of the country. Maduro and Flores were placed aboard the USS Iwo Jima... —CNN

* * *

More information on the highly secretive op is likely to come out in the next days and weeks, as the history books are already being written.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 18:05

Diaper Report

Authored by Eric Peters,

It is six years now since the advent – and normalization of – sickness psychosis (also known as weaponized hypochondria) and it shows a remarkable persistence.

Because of course it has been normalized.

More than that, actually. It continues to be affirmed as a reasonable rather than aberrant behavior.

This business, that is, of seeing but pretending not to notice people walking around with a surgical mask over their porthole.

More finely, of normal (in the head) people seeing such people – interacting with them, even – and pretending they’re not seeing something indicative of serious mental illness.

Seeing a person wearing a “mask” and pretending not to see it is not unlike seeing a person who is in the process of wetting their pants while talking to you and pretending not to see it.

We saw three such “maskers” the other day at the supermarket. One was working behind the counter, where food is handled.

They are becoming a more common sight – probably because they’ve been told about the Super Flu that’s flitting about.

It’s no longer just the flu, of course. Just as it’s no longer just raining – or snowing. Or winter now – and then summer. It’s a bomb cyclone or some other fearful-sounding term, engineered to arouse panic.

Keeping the masses in a state of perpetual panic being the ideal state – from the point of those engineering these now-endless panics.

One follows the next like the night follows the day such that the masses never get a breather from the panic; such a breather might result in them calming down and using their heads again.

H.L. Mencken wrote about this a century ago. Unfortunately, probably not one in a hundred Americans knows who H.L. Mencken was.

Hospitals – those dens of science – are re-imposing “mask” requirements on visitors. It is a metric of the metastasization of the engineered sickness psychosis that has afflicted this country for six years now. Medical professionals (sic) who presumably have some understanding of how viruses are transmitted and who by now have no excuse for continuing to believe that people who aren’t sick can make others sick (the “asymptomatic spreader” idiocy) when it comes to viral bugs because people who aren’t contagious don’t cough spittle or sniffle.

They therefore don’t emit viral particles.

And even if they did, a “mask” doesn’t (for Christ’s sake) “stop the spread” of particles so small they sneeze right through the porous to viral-sized-particles “mask.”

Besides which, it is insane to spend your life in morbid dread of catching a cold. It is part of normal life to get sick occasionally.

One does not need to spend several years at medical school to understand these facts. Yet there are still apparently lots of people who did spend years at medical school who either do not understand the facts or play along with the lies. This latter is almost certainly the thing going on. It is understandable why it is going on.

Most doctors are just employees – like most of the rest of us – and they must do what their employer says, if they wish to remain employed.

In the case of most doctors, it is mostly the big hospital/health care chains and the insurance cartels that are the employer and when they say “jump” (or “mask” up) the doctors say how high?

And that wearing is caring.

Doesn’t this instill in you great confidence in the independent judgment of your doctor? What else are they telling people they need to do that they (the doctors) have been told they’d better tell people they need to do?

It brings to mind a rhetorical question voters were asked once about Richard Nixon: Would you buy a used car from this man? Well, would you buy into the pills (or surgery) your doctor is trying to sell you? The same guy who says you’ve got to wear a “mask” to be allowed to sit in his waiting room?

Integrity, once sold, is not easily re-purchased.

Just as sanity, once lost, is not easily regained.

We may soon see just how many people have not yet recovered. Not just their sanity. Their balls.

The symptoms are passivity and compliance when they are told they must – once again – “mask up” to be allowed within.

How many won’t believe the lies but will go along with them – again – to avoid a confrontation or some inconvenience? I need to see the doctor. Then maybe it will be I need to go to the store.

How many will defy the social pressure to be compliant and refuse to play along, no matter the inconvenience?

Everything depends on such people.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 17:30

Who Is Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's Deputy?

Venezuela’s former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is now president of the country, U.S. President Donald Trump said, hours after a U.S. military operation captured former leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on Jan. 3.

“She was just sworn in, but she was, as you know, picked by Maduro,” Trump said.

He said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio “is working on that directly. Just had a conversation with her, and she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again. Very simple.”

The overnight surprise attack resulted in Maduro and Flores being shipped to New York to face charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.

Courtesy of Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times, here is what we know about Rodríguez.

Who Is Rodríguez?

Rodríguez was born and raised in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, on May 18, 1969.

​The 56-year-old leader graduated from Universidad Central de Venezuela, became a lawyer, and quickly rose through the political system in the past decade.

Rodríguez served as the Communication and Information Minister in 2013 before she pivoted to a Foreign Ministry position from 2014 to 2017 and eventually served as the head of the Constituent Assembly, which expanded Maduro’s powers.

Vice Presidency

Maduro selected Rodríguez as his vice president in June 2018, describing her as “a young woman, brave, seasoned, daughter of a martyr, revolutionary, and tested in a thousand battles.”

In August 2024, Maduro assigned Rodríguez to manage sanctions on oil between the United States and Venezuela.

Acting Leader

Trump announced from Mar-a-Lago on Jan. 3 that the United States will “run” Venezuela until a peaceful transition can be made, while saying that Rodríguez has agreed to work with the United States after being “sworn in” as Venezuela’s new president.

Trump said Rodríguez had spoken with Rubio but didn’t provide details on how the United States would work with Rodríguez to run the country.

“She really doesn’t have a choice,” Trump said.

“We’re going to have this done right. We’re not going to just do this with Maduro, then leave like everybody else, leave and say, ‘Let it go to hell.’ If we just left, it has zero chance of ever coming back.

“We‘ll run it properly. We’ll run it professionally. We'll have the greatest oil companies in the world go in and invest billions and billions of dollars and take out money, use that money in Venezuela. And the biggest beneficiary going to be the people of Venezuela.”

In an address broadcast on state television shortly after Trump’s briefing, Rodríguez - who was identified as vice president by a ticker at the bottom of the screen - did not address Trump’s claims that she was now acting president. Instead, she demanded that the United States free Maduro, who she called the country’s rightful leader.

“Here, we have a government with clarity, and I repeat and repeat again … we are willing to have respectful relations,” Rodríguez said.

“It is the only thing we will accept for a type of relationship after having [been] attacked.”

Maduro’s Exit Plan

Before Maduro was captured, he floated the idea of staying in office for three more years before having Rodríguez take over and finish his term through January 2031.

The proposal was rejected by the White House, which openly questioned the legitimacy of Venezuela’s 2024 election and accused Maduro of overseeing a narco-terrorist state.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 16:55

Chinese Social Media Explodes: US Invasion Of Venezuela A 'Template' For Move On Taiwan

A fascinating new report by Bloomberg on Sunday has observed a huge uptick in Chinese social media users weighing in on the decades-long Taiwan independence crisis, in relation to President Trump's weekend overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

"Trump's operation against the Venezuelan strongman shot to the top of China’s Weibo late Saturday, with the topic gaining some 440 million views on the X-like platform," Bloomberg reports. "Many commentators were quick to make comparisons between the fate of the South American nation and that of the self-ruled democracy Beijing has vowed to claim."

Like the long building military showdown between the United States and Venezuela, Taiwan has been a flashpoint in mainland China's shadow. It is 'small' in comparison with China's population and military might. But the situation is an inversion, with Washington having long armed Taiwan to the teeth.

This fact is obvious enough to spark an avalanche of commentary, with Bloomberg citing one Weibo post and thread (among many) which said "I suggest using the same method to reclaim Taiwan in the future" - in reference to Beijing's designs on 'reuniting' the self-ruled island with the mainland.

Another user said, "The US imperialists’ lightning raid on Venezuela to capture Maduro and his wife provides a perfect blueprint for our military to launch a surprise attack on Frog Island and seize [Taiwanese President] Lai Ching-te" - which utilized a popular derogatory term for Taiwan.

Nikkei/Google Earth

China has joined Russia in demanding the immediate release of Maduro, with the foreign ministry staying it was "deeply shocked" by the "blatant use of force against a sovereign state."

The same report features the perspective of former diplomat Ryan Hass:

"I don’t expect today’s events in Venezuela will dramatically shift Beijing’s calculus on Taiwan," Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote on X. "Beijing hasn’t refrained from kinetic or other actions on Taiwan out of deference to international law and norms."

"Privately, I expect Beijing will emphasize to Washington that it expects to be given the same latitude for great power exemptions to international law that the US takes for itself," he added, citing China’s operations in the South China Sea, where it has territorial disputes with US allies and other regional neighbors.

Indeed under Trump it is a new day. Not only does he "speak the truth out loud" - no longer merely hiding behind platitudes like "spreading democracy" in the name of the "rules-based order", he unapologetically just invades countries he doesn't like (as the foray into Caracas makes clear).

The US has long condemned Moscow of doing just this (in Ukraine, or in Georgia over a decade ago). The Kremlin has reacted this weekend to the Venezuela intervention by saying "just watch the double standards in motion."

Beijing without doubt is signaling the same thing. It is asking essentially: if the US can do this in its own backyard (invade a small 'nuisance' country), then why can't China do the same?

Time to watch the double standards in real time.

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) January 3, 2026

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 16:20

Detroit Tries To Balance Gas-Powered Profits While Staying Competitive With China's EV Surge

U.S. automakers are quietly pivoting back toward what they know makes money: large gasoline vehicles. Selling trucks and SUVs is now the fastest path to higher profits, especially as government pressure to push electric vehicles has weakened. Trying to maximize profits from gas cars while keeping pace in EV technology is proving extremely difficult, according to a new writeup from the Wall Street Journal.

Recent policy changes strongly favor gasoline models. Fuel-economy rules have been softened, penalties for missing targets have disappeared, EV tax credits have expired, and California can no longer impose its own emissions standards. EV momentum has cooled worldwide as well, with Europe, the U.K., and Canada also retreating from aggressive mandates. BloombergNEF projects U.S. EV sales will drop 24% in Q4 2025 from the year before.

Automakers are responding quickly. GM, Ford, and Stellantis have announced plans to emphasize gasoline vehicles, which deliver far better margins. Thousands of EV-factory jobs have been cut and several plants paused. As RBC’s Tom Narayan explains, “Even one quarter of mismatched production can result in billions of dollars of losses.”

Their caution is understandable. EV programs have been deeply unprofitable. Ford alone lost nearly $13 billion on EVs between 2021 and 2024, and now expects $19.5 billion in new charges, largely EV-related. Meanwhile, easing regulations are creating what Ford CEO Jim Farley calls a “multibillion-dollar opportunity over the next two years.” TD Cowen estimates profit gains of $4B for Ford, $3B for GM, and €1.4B for Stellantis from these regulatory shifts.

Publicly, the companies still claim commitment to EVs. GM CEO Mary Barra says “profitable electric-vehicle production” remains the firm’s goal, and Farley warns that Chinese rivals like BYD and Geely are the real competition. But reality is sobering: the Detroit Three together control less than 5% of global EV sales, while BYD, Geely, and Tesla hold nearly 40%.

WSJ writes that part of the problem is demand. Consumers have resisted expensive electric versions of large vehicles that don’t suit long-distance or commercial use. Ford now plans a smaller, cheaper electric pickup around $30,000 for 2027. GM is redesigning EVs to be lighter and more aerodynamic. Both companies are also trying to keep flexibility by producing EVs and gasoline cars in the same plants. As Barra put it, “we have the ability to flex back and forth between ICE and EVs.”

That flexibility, however, undermines efficiency. BloombergNEF’s Colin McKerracher argues that scale is essential for lowering battery costs, and John Murphy of Haig Partners notes that mixed production lines inevitably sacrifice efficiency.

Believing Detroit can dominate EVs now requires faith: that low-cost EVs can be built without massive scale, that U.S. firms can match the speed of Chinese rivals who release new models every 1.8 years versus 5.2 years for Western firms, and that Chinese automakers will stay out of the U.S. market indefinitely.

There is another path. Like U.S. oil companies that ignored renewables and doubled down on their most profitable business—with strong results—the Detroit automakers could lean into gasoline and hybrids. Hybrid demand is still growing and uses nearly the same supply chain as traditional vehicles. S&P Global Mobility expects global gasoline and hybrid sales to rise through at least 2032.

The danger is timing. The world could transition to EVs faster than expected, leaving U.S. automakers stuck behind. For now, though, profits from gas vehicles are simply too attractive to resist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 15:45

Operation Absolute Resolve: Why Trump Went Off Script And Why It Will Not Matter

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

It can fairly be said that the most precarious jobs in the world are those of a golf ball collector at a driving range, a mascot at a Chuck E. Cheese, and a Trump Administration lawyer.

That was evident at the press conference yesterday as President Donald Trump blew apart the carefully constructed narrative presented earlier for the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. 

Some of us had written that Trump had a winning legal argument by focusing on the operation as the seizure of two indicted individuals in reliance on past judicial rulings, including the decisions in the case of former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and General Dan Caine stayed on script and reinforced this narrative. Both repeatedly noted that this was an operation intended to bring two individuals to justice and that law enforcement personnel were part of the extraction team to place them into legal custody. Rubio was, again, particularly effective in emphasizing that Maduro was not the head of state but a criminal dictator who took control after losing democratic elections.

However, while noting the purpose of the capture, President Trump proceeded to declare that the United States would engage in nation-building to achieve lasting regime change. He stated that they would be running Venezuela to ensure a friendly government and the repayment of seized U.S. property dating back to the government of Hugo Chávez.

This city is full of self-proclaimed Trump whisperers who rarely score above random selection in their predictions. However, there are certain pronounced elements in Trump’s approach to such matters. First, he is the most transparent president in my lifetime with prolonged (at times excruciatingly long) press conferences and a brutal frankness about his motivations. Second, he is unabashedly and undeniably transactional in most of his dealings. He is not ashamed to state what he wants the country to get out of the deal.

In Venezuela, he wants a stable partner, and he wants oil.

Chávez and Maduro had implemented moronic socialist policies that reduced one of the most prosperous nations to an economic basket case. They brought in Cuban security thugs to help keep the population under repressive conditions, as a third fled to the United States and other countries.

After an extraordinary operation to capture Maduro, Trump was faced with socialist Maduro allies on every level of the government. He is not willing to allow those same regressive elements to reassert themselves.

The problem is that, if the purpose was regime change, this attack was an act of war, which is why Rubio struggled to bring the presser back to the law enforcement purpose. I have long criticized the erosion of the war declaration powers of Congress, including my representation of members of Congress in opposition to Obama’s Libyan war effort.

The fact, however, is that we lost that case. Trump knows that. Courts have routinely dismissed challenges to undeclared military offensives against other nations. In fairness to Trump, most Democrats were as quiet as church mice when Obama and Hillary Clinton attacked Libya’s capital and military sites to achieve regime change without any authorization from Congress. They were also silent when Obama vaporized an American under this “kill list” policy without even a criminal charge. So please spare me the outrage now.

My strong preferences for congressional authorization and consultation are immaterial. The question I am asked as a legal analyst is whether this operation would be viewed as lawful. The answer remains yes.

The courts have previously upheld the authority of presidents to seize individuals abroad, including the purported heads of state. This case is actually stronger in many respects than the one involving Noriega. Maduro will now make the same failed arguments that Noriega raised. He should lose those challenges under existing precedent. If courts apply the same standards to Trump (which is often an uncertain proposition), Trump will win on the right to seize Maduro and bring him to justice.

But then, how about the other rationales rattled off at Mar-A-Lago? In my view, it will not matter. Here is why.

The immediate purpose and result of the operation was to capture Maduro and to bring him to face his indictment in New York. That is Noriega 2.0.

The Administration put him into custody at the time of extraction with law enforcement personnel and handed him over to the Justice Department for prosecution.

The Trump Administration can then argue that it had to deal with the aftermath of that operation and would not simply leave the country without a leader or stable government.

Trump emphasized that “We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”

I still do not like the import of those statements. Venezuelans must be in charge of their own country and our role, if any, must be to help them establish a democratic and stable government. Trump added that “We can’t take a chance that somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn’t have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind.”

The devil is in the details. Venezuelans must decide who has their best interests in mind, not the United States.

However, returning to the legal elements, I do not see how a court could free Maduro simply because it disapproves of nation-building. Presidents have engaged in such policies for years. The aftermath of the operation is distinct from its immediate purpose.

Trump can argue that, absent countervailing action from Congress, he has the authority under Article II of the Constitution to lay the foundation for a constitutional and economic revival in Venezuela.

He will leave it to his lawyers to make that case. It is not the case that some of us preferred, but it is the case that he wants to be made. He is not someone who can be scripted. It is his script and he is still likely to prevail in holding Maduro and his wife for trial.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 15:10

Bongino Makes Resignation From FBI Official

FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino officially resigned from the bureau on Saturday, hours after President Donald Trump confirmed that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro had been taken into US custody. 

FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino (C), accompanied by U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro (L) and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Washington Field Office Special Agent in Charge Anthony Spotswood (R), speaks during a news conference on an arrest of a suspect in the January 6th pipe bombing case at the Department of Justice in Washington, on Dec. 4, 2025. Andrew Harnik /Getty Images

Responding to a post on X, Bongino praised Maduro's capture, saying it was "a busy last day on the job."

"Tomorrow I return to civilian life. It’s been an incredible year thanks to the leadership and decisiveness of President Trump."

Bongino said that it was "an honor of a lifetime" to work beside FBI Director Kash Patel, adding "See you on the other side."

It was a busy last day on the job. This will be my last post on this account.
Tomorrow I return to civilian life. It’s been an incredible year thanks to the leadership and decisiveness of President Trump.
It was the honor of a lifetime to work with Director Patel, and to serve… https://t.co/ETUqiYXvLH

— Dan Bongino (@FBIDDBongino) January 4, 2026

Bongino announced in mid-December that he would be leaving the FBI in January. 

In response President Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Dec. 17 that Bongino had done a "great job," but "I think he wants to go back to his show," referring to Bongino's podcast. 

Patel also confirmed Bongino's retirement announcement on X Saturday night - after having previously calling him "the best partner I could’ve asked for in helping restore this FBI."

"He not only completed his mission—he far exceeded it. We will miss him but I’m thankful he accepted the call to serve."

Dan is the best partner I could’ve asked for in helping restore this FBI. He brought critical reforms to make the organization more efficient, led the successful Summer Heat op, served as the people’s voice for transparency, and delivered major breakthroughs in long unsolved… https://t.co/o8wZOUnojP

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) December 17, 2025

 As the Epoch Times notes further, Bongino highlighted some statistics of the FBI’s operations over the past year in a post on Dec. 30, 2025, noting the bureau had made more than 50,000 arrests—including more than 30,000 that were for violent crimes—had seized more than 2,000 kilograms (4,400 pounds) of fentanyl, and increased arrests for “Nihilistic Violent Extremism” by 490 percent.

The United States also saw a significant drop in the national murder rate over the past year, and the FBI located more than 6,000 child victims, an increase of 22 percent, Bongino added.

Bongino’s tenure at the FBI also saw some infighting with the Department of Justice, the bureau’s parent agency, over its handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files after Bongino had spent considerable time on his podcast demanding answers about the now-deceased sex offender and his 2019 death, which was officially ruled a suicide.

Bongino wrote a post on X in late July 2025 that said the FBI was “committed to stamping out public corruption and the political weaponization of both law enforcement and intelligence operations,” but that what he learned conducting investigations “into these aforementioned matters, has shocked me down to my core.”

“We cannot run a Republic like this. I’ll never be the same after learning what I’ve learned,” Bongino said at the time, but did not elaborate.

Earlier that month, Trump had dismissed reports of friction between Bongino and others at the FBI and Justice Department over the release of the Epstein files, telling reporters on Air Force One that Bongino’s a “very good guy” and that “he’s in good shape.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 14:35

Why MSCI's Upcoming Decision On Bitcoin Treasury Companies Matters

Authored by Juan Galt via BitcoinMagazine.com,

In a move that could shape corporate Bitcoin adoption, index provider MSCI is set to decide whether to exclude companies holding significant Bitcoin reserves from its global benchmarks. The outcome, due January 15, may influence billions in forced selling and set precedents for how Wall Street views Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

MSCI Inc., a New York-based publicly traded company listed on the NYSE with a market capitalization of $43.76 billion and a stock price of $565.68 as of January 2, is a key player in the investment world. It curates over 246,000 equity indexes daily, with more than $18.3 trillion in assets under management benchmarked to them. These indices serve as blueprints for funds and portfolios, helping investors gain exposure to specific market segments.

Unlike the NASDAQ, which operates as both a stock exchange where companies list and trade and a composite index tracking those listings, MSCI focuses solely on index creation. The S&P 500, managed by S&P Dow Jones Indices, is similarly an index but targets the 500 largest U.S. companies by market cap. MSCI’s offerings, such as the MSCI World Index covering developed markets, provide broader global and thematic coverage, influencing trillions in investment decisions.

The issue began on October 10, 2025, when MSCI issued a consultation proposal to exclude companies with 50% or more of their assets in digital assets like Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies from its Global Investable Market Indexes.

The rationale: such firms operate more like funds than traditional businesses.

The proposal named 39 companies, including Bitcoin holders like Strategy and Metaplanet. The announcement triggered an immediate market reaction, with Bitcoin experiencing a sharp intraday plunge of roughly $12,000 on the same day, marking the start of a broader price correction.

Broader awareness grew in late November 2025, when JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risks in a report, estimating $2.8 billion in outflows from Strategy alone and up to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed suit.

This may have amplified selling pressure on affected stocks and contributed to Bitcoin’s ongoing pullback amid a broader market downturn. 

Estimates of total forced selling, if implemented, range from $10 billion to $15 billion over a year, per Bitcoin for Corporations (BFC) analysis.

The consultation period, open for stakeholder feedback, closed on December 31, 2025. BFC, a coalition accelerating corporate Bitcoin adoption, mobilized quickly. They launched a website detailing the proposal’s flaws, including a technical appendix outlining potential market impacts. BFC drafted a letter opposing the change, gathering over 1,500 signatures in two weeks and delivering it to MSCI on December 30. Eight of the 39 affected companies are BFC members.

After initial outreach, BFC held a call with MSCI’s head of research and leadership.

“We had a very constructive conversation,” said George Mekhail, BFC’s executive director.

“I think they were very much still in a listening and learning posture. I think a lot of this just really has to do with a lack of education and understanding of Bitcoin itself, as well as these Bitcoin treasury companies and the significance of their operating businesses.”

Mekhail noted the proposal appeared driven by genuine analytical concerns rather than malice, triggered by Metaplanet’s recent preferred share issuance, not Strategy’s larger holdings. A key gap: MSCI made no distinction between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, treating all digital assets alike. This has fostered temporary alignment between Bitcoin advocates and the broader crypto sector in opposition, highlighting an ongoing education gap between the Bitcoin industry and Wall Street institutions.

Next, MSCI announces its decision on January 15, 2026. If approved, exclusions take effect February 1.

Mekhail outlined three scenarios:

1. implementation (worst case, forcing sales),

2. a delay for further review (most likely, per his assessment),

3. or full withdrawal (best case).

Polymarket bettors currently give a 77% chance of Strategy’s delisting from MSCI by March 31.

Source: Polymarket

Most financial fallout would hit Strategy, which holds the vast majority of affected Bitcoin treasuries. Founder Michael Saylor’s firm has engaged MSCI directly, issuing its own letter and working behind the scenes. Other opposition includes letters from Strive Asset Management and investor Bill Miller.

Industry pushback has been robust and visible, with no major groups publicly supporting the proposal. This asymmetry underscores Bitcoin’s organized, motivated constituency versus dispersed critics, echoing dynamics in recent political shifts like the 2024 U.S. election.

A withdrawal would boost corporate Bitcoin strategies; implementation could deter treasuries. As Mekhail put it, “The most bullish outcome is that they take it to heart and they withdraw the proposal.”

The decision tests Wall Street’s adaptation to Bitcoin’s role in balance sheets.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 14:00

Democrats Claim Maduro Capture Is A 'Distraction'

Democrats immediately denounced President Trump's operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro, calling it an illegal war despite broad precedent supporting the commander-in-chief's authority to conduct such missions without congressional approval.

Even former Vice President Kamala Harris has chimed in.

"Donald Trump’s actions in Venezuela do not make America safer, stronger, or more affordable," Harris claimed in a post on X. “That Maduro is a brutal, illegitimate dictator does not change the fact that this action was both unlawful and unwise. We’ve seen this movie before. Wars for regime change or oil that are sold as strength but turn into chaos, and American families pay the price.”

Other Democrats claimed that the operation to capture Maduro was a “distraction.”

During an appearance on MSNOW on Saturday, Rep. Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.) suggested the timing of Maduro's capture served primarily as a distraction from issues Democrats plan to spotlight when Congress reconvenes, namely the upcoming anniversary of the Capitol riot on January 6, and the Epstein files.

"I think it was mentioned by one of your earlier speakers that Donald Trump is transactional, what he wants is access to those oil reserves," Strickland said.

"At the same time, this is also a big distraction. Look at the timing of this. We go back in session on Tuesday. We are going to talk about the Affordable Care Act premiums. We're going to talk about January 6, the Epstein files, the economy, all those things that are so important to the American people, and, what a coincidence, this happens."

She also drew a comparison between Maduro and Trump regarding election integrity.

"It also is not a surprise of the timing. We're going back to Congress next week... and we'll be talking about January 6, which is kind of ironic here, because...Maduro, he actually did steal two elections. And Donald Trump tried to do that on January 6, but he failed," Strickland said.

Strickland wasn’t the only one pushing the “distraction” angle.

 "It's not about drugs. If it was, Trump wouldn't have pardoned one of the largest narco traffickers in the world last month. It's about oil and regime change,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) claimed.

And they need a trial now to pretend that it isn't. Especially to distract from Epstein + skyrocketing healthcare costs," she wrote.

However, these accusations ignored a glaring contradiction.

The Trump administration carried out an operation targeting a leader the Biden-Harris administration actively sought to apprehend. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on January 10, 2025, mere days before Joe Biden and Kamala Harris left office, that the State Department would increase the reward to $25 million for Maduro.

“In solidarity with the Venezuelan people, the U.S. Government and our partners around the world are taking action today,” Blinken announced in a statement on January 10, 2025.

“The Department of State is increasing the reward offers to up to $25 million each for information leading to the arrests and/or convictions of Nicolás Maduro and Maduro’s Minister of Interior Diosdado Cabello. The Department of State is also adding a new reward offer of up to $15 million for Maduro’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López. These three reward offers stem from criminal narcotrafficking indictments announced in March 2020.”

Biden's outgoing administration framed the increased reward as part of coordinated international pressure on the illegitimate Maduro regime.

It appears that the only distraction going on here is from the Democrats, who don’t want the public to realize that Trump succeeded where Biden-Harris failed.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 13:25

OPEC+ Reaffirms Output Pause As Eight Producers Cite Market Stability

Authored by Tom Kool via OilPrice.com,

OPEC+ confirmed on Sunday that it will keep oil production steady through the first quarter of 2026, as eight key producers reaffirmed their commitment to market stability amid a steady global economic outlook and what they described as healthy oil market fundamentals.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on January 4 to review global market conditions and outlook.

The group reiterated its decision, first announced on November 2, 2025, to pause planned production increases in February and March 2026, citing seasonal demand patterns.

Following the meeting, OPEC+ produced the following production table for February 2026:

In a joint statement, the eight producers said current market conditions remain supportive, pointing to relatively low global inventories as a sign that the oil market is well balanced despite last year’s sharp decline in crude prices.

Oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025, the steepest annual drop since the pandemic, as supply growth outpaced demand and concerns over a growing glut mounted.

The group also emphasized that the previously announced 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts could be returned to the market either in part or in full, depending on evolving market conditions, and only in a gradual manner.

The producers stressed that flexibility remains central to their strategy, including the option to extend or reverse additional voluntary adjustments, such as the 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts announced in November 2023.

OPEC+ further reiterated its collective commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation. The producers confirmed that any overproduction since January 2024 will be fully compensated, with compliance and compensation to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions - including strains between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen and uncertainty surrounding Venezuela following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro - delegates said these developments did not alter the group’s near-term policy stance.

“In an environment this fragile, OPEC+ is choosing caution, preserving flexibility rather than introducing new uncertainty into an already volatile market,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at consultant Rystad Energy AS.

“The political transition in Venezuela adds another major layer of uncertainty.”

Caracas may hold the world’s biggest oil reserves, but years of under - investment, mismanagement and international isolation have diminished the country to a fraction of its former standing.

But, bear in mind that...

When you hear that Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, remember that ~2/3 of that comes from the Chavez and Maduro governments using generous assumptions to reclassify large volumes of lower utility, heavy crude as recoverable. https://t.co/SSA7u8Ovjy pic.twitter.com/JG1VrIUqTo

— Dr. Robert Rohde (@RARohde) January 4, 2026

Venezuela currently pumps about one million barrels of oil a day, roughly a third of what it produced a decade ago and under 1% of global supplies.

Washington’s recent seizure and pursuit of tankers while it pressured Maduro’s regime helped curb output in the country’s critical Orinoco Belt by 25%.

Production could rise by about 150,000 barrels a day within a few months if sanctions are lifted, but getting back to 2 million barrels a day or higher would require “massive reforms” and large investments from international oil companies, according to consultants at Kpler.

The eight OPEC+ countries agreed to continue holding monthly meetings to assess market conditions, compliance levels, and compensation progress. Their next meeting is scheduled for February 1, 2026.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 12:50

Judge Convicted Of Helping Illegal Escape ICE Resigns, Faces 5 Years In Prison

A Milwaukee judge who was found guilty last month of obstructing federal agents by letting an illegal immigrant slip through a side door at her courthouse has resigned. 

Judge Hannah Dugan, who was convicted last month on a federal felony charge, was charged by federal prosecutors after she distracted federal agents who were trying to arrest Eduardo Flores-Ruiz, a Mexican citizen who had entered the United States illegally and was scheduled to appear before Dugan for a hearing in a state-level battery case. 

The indictment, dated May 13, 2025, accused her of obstructing the law by assisting Floriz-Ruiz to evade arrest, and falsely advising ICE agents that they required a judicial warrant to arrest him.

Dugan was found guilty by a federal grand jury on Dec. 18, 2025 on one count of violating Section 1505 of Title 18 of the US code. Her resignation comes as GOP members of the Wisconsin State Legislature were preparing to impeach her and remove her from office following her conviction. 

Democrat Gov. Tony Evers said his office had received her resignation letter and would move forward with filling the judicial vacancy. In her resignation letter addressed to Evers, Dugan said that during her years on the bench, she oversaw thousands of cases with "a commitment to treat all persons with dignity and respect, to act justly, deliberately and consistently, and to maintain a courtroom with the decorum and safety the public deserves." (as opposed to following the law, of course). 

"As you know, I am the subject of unprecedented federal legal proceedings, which are far from concluded but which present immense and complex challenges that threaten the independence of our judiciary," the letter continues.

"I am pursuing this fight for myself and for our independent judiciary," she added. 

Dugan, who has not been sentenced, faces up to five years in prison.

Her attorneys filed a motion with the trial judge, U.S. District Judge Lynn Adelman of the Eastern District of Wisconsin, on Dec. 23, 2025, asking to set aside the conviction. 

Hannah Dugan broke the law, was found guilty by a jury, and is resigning.

A word to the wise: Don’t obstruct federal law enforcement when they are arresting a criminal illegal alien. https://t.co/fNkNdvMRn5

— Rep. Tom Tiffany (@RepTiffany) January 3, 2026

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 12:15

The Bearish Counterpoint: What Could Go Wrong For Markets In 2026?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Wall Street’s market outlook enters 2026 in a bullish mood, albeit with nuance. After three consecutive years of substantial gains in major indexes, many strategists expect the U.S. stock market to extend its rally into another year, with the central Wall Street banks highlighting several drivers supporting continued upside, from increases in productivity due to AI to the tax cuts and deregulation from the OBBBA.

Goldman Sachs, for example, forecasts that S&P 500 earnings per share will accelerate in 2026, rising approximately 12 percent from 2025 levels. This earnings momentum underpins the constructive view on equities, and they see opportunities not just in prominent technology names, but also across cyclical sectors such as small caps, non-residential construction, and consumer stocks exposed to the middle-income consumer.

Furthermore, global growth is expected to stay sturdy in 2026. Goldman Sachs projects 2.8 percent global GDP growth, up from consensus expectations, with the U.S. economy outpacing most major peers. China’s growth is also forecast to improve, broadening the backdrop for global stock demand.

Morgan Stanley echoes a positive but tempered outlook, suggesting that U.S. equities will outperform global peers, a reversal from last year, with the S&P 500 projected to rise to about 7,800.

Regardless of the firm, several key structural factors universally support their bullish outlook:

• Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive. The Federal Reserve has already enacted rate cuts in 2025, and further moderation in borrowing costs could preserve liquidity and investment demand. Historical data indicate that positive equity returns occur when rate cuts coincide with established bull markets.

• Earnings growth is forecast to remain robust. Beyond headline numbers, broad sectors could benefit from technological adoption and operational leverage as companies expand margins.

• Sector breadth may improve. After several years of narrow leadership dominated by mega‑cap tech, strategists see room for cyclicals, financials, and industrials to play a larger role in 2026 performance.

This combination drives the bullish premise: 2026 will not just be about extending the past year’s returns, but consolidating gains across more parts of the market. That view is supported by the earnings expectations for this year, with the Magnificent 7 growth rates slowing but the bottom 493 surging.

So, with such a bullish market outlook, what is there to worry about?

The Bearish Counterpoint: What Could Go Wrong?

Despite the bullish narrative, a thoughtful case against unbridled optimism exists. Unlike the simple bull versus bear dichotomy, credible risks could significantly dampen or reverse the more bullish market outlooks.

First, we would be remiss not to mention valuations. Forward valuations are elevated, and while they are terrible market timing devices, they do represent investor sentiment, which is universally bullish. This means the market’s upside is more sensitive to disappointments in earnings or macro trends. If earnings growth does not materialize as expected, stocks may struggle, even in a benign macro setting. We discussed this recently, in “Risks To Market Outlooks.“

“Notably, these forecasts rest on an assumption that the economy will not only avoid recession but reaccelerate in the face of waning inflation. As noted, equity markets have responded by pushing valuations higher across major indexes, with price-to-earnings ratios well above historical medians. Simultaneously, investors have rewarded narratives built on the idea of a soft landing and a return to pre-pandemic trends.”

“However, this narrative appears to overlook the trends in recent economic data. Inflation expectations have moderated, not because of increased demand, but due to weaker consumption and cooling labor dynamics. As recent economic data indicate, disinflation has accompanied slower GDP growth and a decline in personal consumption momentum. If the economy were indeed set to reaccelerate, these trends should be increasing rather than returning to historical averages.”

Secondly, the market is pricing a “soft landing” where inflation cools, growth persists, and rate cuts continue. Yet, that outcome would be historically rare. When inflation falls this quickly, it typically reflects a slowdown in demand rather than policy success. Additionally, the strong relationship between economic growth and earnings should not be dismissed. That disconnect exposes investors to market risk if growth does not materialize as expected and valuations are reconsidered.

Furthermore, if inflation stubbornly remains above targets or the labor market shows uneven data, the Federal Reserve might delay or reduce the magnitude of rate cuts. A less accommodative stance could tighten financial conditions and pressure asset prices as market outlooks reverse.

Third, earnings growth estimates are very optimistic. As we head into 2026, strategists are hopeful that the bottom 493 stocks will begin to grow earnings aggressively. As noted previously:

“Wall Street currently expects the bottom 493 stocks to contribute more to earnings in 2026 than they have in the past 3 years. This is notable in that, over the past three years, the average growth rate for the bottom 493 stocks was less than 3%. Yet over the next 2 years, that earnings growth is expected to average above 11%. 

“Furthermore, the outlook is even more exuberant for the most economically sensitive stocks. Small and mid-cap companies struggled to produce earnings growth during the previous three years of robust economic growth, driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, next year, even if the Fed’s soft landing narrative is valid, they are expected to see a surge in earnings growth rates of nearly 60%.”

There is nothing wrong with having an optimistic market outlook when it comes to investing; however, “outlooks can change rapidly,” which is a significant market risk, particularly when expectations and valuations are elevated.

Third, geopolitical and global trade pressures persist as a threat to more bullish market outlooks. Trade friction, geopolitical tension, or currency instability all contribute to sudden shifts in risk tolerance. Recent fund manager surveys identify AI valuation bubbles, bond market turbulence, inflation resurgence, credit stresses, and trade escalations as top concerns.

Which one will it be that “derails the apple cart?”

The most likely answer is that it will be none of them. This is because when investors are monitoring some risk, they make portfolio changes to hedge against that risk. Therefore, that “risk” becomes priced into the market. Most likely, the risk that eventually manifests itself will be something that no one is expecting. That “surprise” is what causes markets to buckle. Consider Trump’s tariff announcement last March; investors had to materially reprice the markets for a rapid change in forward expectations of earnings.

Finally, investors have become extremely complacent about above-average returns. Take a look at the total annual returns of the market since 2019.

• 2019 +31.2%

• 2020 +18.0%

• 2021 +28.5%

• 2022 -18.0%

• 2023 +26.1%

• 2024 +24.9%

• 2025 +17.8%

While those returns have been very healthy, they are detached from the underlying drivers of economic growth, which is why valuations have risen so much in recent years.

With analysts’ market outlooks based on strong revenue growth and margin expansion, several factors could derail the markets. As is always the case, a market priced for perfection leaves little room for earnings misses or growth shocks. If reality falls short of those optimistic assumptions, market risk could rise abruptly.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 11:40

Europe's AI Ambitions Threatened By Soaring Memory Chip Prices

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The ongoing boom in artificial intelligence is sending memory chip prices skyrocketing, putting pressure on data center operators. Europe currently lacks a strategy to break free from this price spiral.

The persistent surge in digitalization, particularly in AI, requires immense data storage capacity and is driving global demand for memory chips. These so-called RAM modules (Random Access Memory) have transformed from classic commodity products into highly specialized, strategic key resources of the new economy.

This strategic battle over memory chips is also reflected these weeks in the struggle for pole position between the United States and China. Just a few weeks ago, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump granted American chipmaker NVIDIA limited permission to export its chips to China—while simultaneously collecting a 25 percent export levy from the Chinese side. 

It is clear that the U.S. will increasingly use chip exports as a geopolitical lever, much like it has already done with LNG deliveries to Europe.

Memory Chips as the Foundation of the Digital Economy 

These chips are used in smartphones, data centers, AI applications, cloud solutions, servers, and nearly every industrial production process. Demand for memory chips such as DRAM and NAND Flash has surged massively over the past five years. Combined global revenue for these chips was around $120 billion in 2020—about 25 percent of the overall semiconductor market—and has increased to roughly $176 billion this year.

Worldwide lockdowns in 2020 further accelerated this trend. At the same time, they posed enormous challenges for the global economy in both energy production and memory chip manufacturing.

Europe, in particular, now faces a severe shortage problem as skyrocketing demand pushes chip prices ever higher. A few highly specialized manufacturers, such as Samsung and SK Hynix, are increasingly in the political spotlight. Their enormous pricing power directly affects European data center operators. With such market concentration, prices are rising not linearly, but exponentially, systematically stalling the expansion of European data center capacity.

Exponential Price Pressure 

To provide some relief, Samsung announced it would continue producing the soon-to-be-phased-out DDR4 standard chip beyond 2026, before factories fully switch to the new DDR5 generation. The crisis has become so acute that even this outdated technology is being artificially kept alive. The price sensitivity is stark: a 16GB DDR4 chip that previously cost around $20 now exceeds $60—and can be even higher in urgent data center upgrades.

This is not classic monetary inflation, but scarcity-driven price pressure. The crisis could last for years, with no relief in sight—particularly impacting AI and high-performance computing.

European cloud providers and mid-sized data centers face the dilemma of massive price hikes alongside slim margins. High electricity costs and shrinking financial buffers in Europe, especially Germany, exacerbate the issue. Smaller European data center operators are likely to be forced out of business under these conditions.

Europe’s Dilemma 

Apple represents an exception. The company relies on highly optimized specialty RAM modules (LPDDR5X) and has strategically secured long-term supply contracts, meaning the current chip supply crisis will hit Apple much later than other providers.

From a European perspective, the situation could hardly be more dramatic. Intel’s planned chip production facility in Germany highlights the dilemma: while it would have little immediate impact on the shortage of specialized memory chips, it exposes the core problem—billion-euro subsidies are insufficient to sustainably build competitive chip manufacturing in Europe. High energy costs and excessive bureaucracy cannot be subsidized away.

Big Goals, Limited Impact 

In response, the European Commission launched the European Chips Act in September 2023, a strategic framework aimed at strengthening Europe’s position in the global semiconductor market and reducing dependence on imports from Taiwan, South Korea, the U.S., and China. Europe currently accounts for well under 15 percent of the global chip market. Brussels is following a familiar political pattern: funding programs for startups, SMEs, research institutions, and competence centers to build knowledge, infrastructure, and retain talent.

The EU aims to locate around 20 percent of global chip production within Europe by 2030. For example, €920 million in funding has been mobilized for Infineon in Dresden—the largest semiconductor investment in the company’s history. The goal is to bring not only low-end production but large parts of the value chain to Europe. Public and private investments totaling €43 billion are targeted by 2030.

Intel’s example highlights structural challenges: European policy supports chip production, but creating a dynamic environment for startups, venture capital, and entrepreneurial innovation is left out. Greater reliance on free capital markets, less state intervention, and reduced regulation could make Europe’s technological independence more realistic. Yet, neither Brussels nor Berlin appears ready for such a paradigm shift.

* **

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 10:30

Russia, China Demand That US Immediately Release Maduro From Custody

Within mere hours after President Trump announced the Saturday capture by US forces of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife after a brief shock bombing campaign and special forces operation in Caracas, Russia has demanded from Washington his immediate release.

"We firmly call on the U.S. leadership to reconsider this position and release the lawfully elected president of a sovereign country and his wife," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, and described that the crisis should be resolved through diplomatic means.

"Russia will continue to support the course pursued by its Bolivarian leadership to defend the country's national interests and sovereignty," the Foreign Ministry said, while also calling for restraint and cautioning against further escalation.

This of course contradicts the US stance, which maintains that Maduro and his socialist government 'stole' the last July elections which kept him in power.

Moscow's demand that the US release and return Maduro, which is extremely unlikely at this point, comes amid rumors that Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez Gomez is actually in Moscow. Russian officials have called these rumors and reports "fake", however.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meanwhile said he held a phone conversation with Gomez, during which he conveyed his "solidarity with the Venezuelan people in the face of armed aggression."

According to Venezuela's national constitution, the Vice President assumes the power of the presidency, but amid the quick power vacuum opening up, it's anyone's guess what leadership in the country will look like even by next week.

China has joined Moscow's calls for the immediate release of Maduro from US custody:

China has called on the United States to immediately release Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after Washington carried out massive military strikes on the capital, Caracas, as well as other regions, and abducted the leader.

Beijing on Sunday insisted the safety of Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores be a priority, and called on the US to "stop toppling the government of Venezuela," calling the attack a "clear violation of international law".

Russia's embassy in Caracas has made clear it is continuing to operate normally and remains in close communication with both Venezuelan officials and Russian nationals in the country. It confirmed in a statement that no Russian citizens were killed or injured in the attack.

There are reports that 40 people total died during the assault - possibly mostly at the large military bases struck in and around the capital, as the NY Times writes, "At least 40 people were killed in the U.S. attack on Venezuela early Saturday, including military personnel and civilians, according to a senior Venezuelan official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe preliminary reports."

News: The CIA covertly installed a small team inside Venezuela over the summer, to track Maduro’s patterns, locations and movements, which helped bolster Saturday’s operation as to his exact whereabouts and where he would be sleeping, a sources familiar with the plans tell me…

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) January 3, 2026

China, Russia, Iran and other US rivals have vehemently condemned what they've characterized as a brazen act of aggression in the regime change operation. As months of US military build-up in the region unfolded, there was ample speculation that a full land invasion would ensue, or else kinetic strikes on cartel locations; however, few analysts could have envisioned a relatively clean special forces kidnapping op of a head of state. Currently, it is widely believed there must have been high-ranking military officials assisting the US behind the scenes - given just how quickly Maduro was apprehended in the capital.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 09:55

UK Goes Full Cradle-To-Grave With 'Sinister' Plan For Newborn Baby Digital IDs

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The UK government’s digital ID push is escalating into outright dystopia, with ministers privately floating the idea of assigning digital identities to newborns right alongside their health records. 

This “sinister” expansion, revealed by the Daily Mail, exposes Labour’s true agenda: a lifelong tracking system masquerading as a tool to curb illegal immigration.

The move is being slammed as a blatant power grab, with many warning it has nothing to do with border control and everything to do with eroding freedoms from birth.

?NEWBORN BABIES TO BE GIVEN DIGITAL I.D

Ministers in the Labour Government have now let slip their latest proposal

This must be stopped

Nobody wants this pic.twitter.com/dZfkwgZi4K

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) January 1, 2026

The proposal emerged in secretive Cabinet Office meetings led by minister Josh Simons, who cited Estonia’s model where infants get unique numbers at birth registration for accessing public services. 

Simons even suggested digital IDs could help teenagers log into social media, tying into global crackdowns like Australia’s under-16 ban on apps such as TikTok.

Announced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in September as a way to verify job candidates’ right to work, the scheme is slated for rollout by 2028-29 at a staggering £1.8 billion cost. But the government has stonewalled on details, fueling suspicions of mission creep.

Shadow Cabinet Office minister Mike Wood blasted the idea: “Labour said their plan for mandatory digital ID was about tackling illegal immigration. But now we hear they are secretly considering forcing it on newborns. What do babies have to do with stopping the boats? This would be a deeply sinister overreach by Labour – and all without any proper national debate.”

Former Tory Cabinet minister Sir David Davis echoed the outrage, calling it “creeping state surveillance.” He added: “The idea that we should allocate children ID at birth is frankly an affront to centuries of British history, and is being put out by stupid ministers who really don’t understand the technology they are playing with. They think they are being clever and modern, but a large number of people will be outraged by this. It will end up being hated by a lot of people.”

Davis accused Starmer of peddling the policy on a “bogus premise” before quietly ballooning it without parliamentary input, labeling it a “constitutional disgrace delivered in a disgraceful manner.”

Liberal Democrat spokesman Lisa Smart warned: “Reports that ministers may be considering dragging newborn babies into their already over-reaching digital ID scheme would be a frightening development.”

Attendees at the meetings, sworn to secrecy, described jaws dropping when the newborn ID concept was raised. One source told the Daily Mail: “The disturbing prospect of digital IDs for newborn babies shows this has nothing to do with right-to-work checks, immigration or giving people choices. It’s a cradle-to-grave digital file being dishonestly forced on every single Briton. This is a shocking, underhand way to massively expand a controversial policy our country has always rejected.”

Big Brother Watch, a leading privacy advocacy group, sounded the alarm on X:

? BREAKING ?

Newborn babies could be given Digital ID under secretive cradle-to-grave surveillance plans.

The disturbing prospect of digital IDs for newborn babies shows this was never about right-to-work checks, immigration or “choice”.

We must stop this #No2DigitalID pic.twitter.com/XpQ7i9PQRR

— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) January 1, 2026

The group’s director, Silkie Carlo, has been vocal against the scheme.

?Nobody believes that a mandatory digital ID is about stopping illegal immigration

So…what is it really about?@silkiecarlo speaks truth to power, giving evidence against digital ID. pic.twitter.com/l9VRpC8bnM

— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) December 28, 2025

This development builds on Starmer’s broader biometric tracking rollout, the “Brit Card” system—tied to the UK One Login platform—promises to block “illegal” migrants from jobs but ignores the flood of legal asylum seekers and offers endless tools for government overreach.

With net migration hitting around 500,000 annually and only a fraction deemed “illegal,” the ID won’t stem the tide but could easily punish dissenters by revoking access to work or services. It’s a classic globalist bait-and-switch: exploit public frustration over open borders to impose surveillance that targets natives.

A government spokesman claimed: “The only mandatory area of the programme will be for digital right-to-work checks. Only people starting a new job will need to use the scheme.” But a Whitehall source admitted it’s all “hypothetical,” with a public consultation pending—hardly reassuring given the secretive plotting.

 

This is the death of privacy, starting at the cradle. Brits must reject this authoritarian slide before every citizen is fully reduced to a tracked data point in a vast surveillance state.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 09:20

Here is another update on lumber prices.
NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On January 2, 2026, LBR was at $534.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 1.6% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year suggesting weak demand for framing lumber.

Brexit Architect Blows Lid Off Deep State Plot To Destroy Nigel Farage And Reform UK

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Dominic Cummings, the political strategist who oversaw Brexit, has dropped a bombshell warning to Nigel Farage: the UK establishment is plotting to crush him and Reform UK by any means necessary, including illegal tactics, to prevent a populist takeover.

As Reform surges in polls and eyes major gains in the 2026 local elections, Cummings has revealed how insiders view Farage as the next Trump-style threat they must eliminate early and ruthlessly.

Speaking on The Spectator’s Quite Right! podcast, Cummings told hosts Michael Gove and Madeline Grant: “They’ll leak medical records, they’ll leak tax records.They’ll bug his phone and leak that. They’ll do anything that they need to.”

Dominic Cummings: 'The people around Keir Starmer and the upper echelons of Whitehall are saying to themselves: "Let's smash the absolute living shit out of Farage and make sure he doesn't win".

'They'll leak medical and tax records, they'll bug his phone and leak that. They'll… pic.twitter.com/7q8wHrl7if

— The Spectator (@spectator) January 1, 2026

Cummings added that populists in other countries will be targeted too, noting “That will be happening across Europe and they’ll all be telling themselves they’re fighting fascism together.”

He pinpointed “the people around {British PM} Starmer” as driven by Brexit revenge, saying: “The people around Starmer and all through the upper echelons of the Whitehall system are looking at Trump.”

“They’re looking across Europe, and they’re saying to themselves: ‘The lesson is to strike early and strike hard and not let these people in’,” Cummings further noted.

Cummings added that establishment figures regret allowing Vote Leave to win the Brexit referendum, seeing it as “the beginning of the disaster for us.”

Cummings claimed that the ultimate goal of the establishment is “Smashing the absolute s*** out of Farage and making sure that he doesn’t win it – by fair means and foul.”

Whitehall is absolutely TERRIFIED of Nigel Farage – because they know he is destined to be the next Prime Minister.

They'll collaborate – right and left – to make sure #REFORM doesn't win.

Article | https://t.co/xGwYvFXrbK pic.twitter.com/qZtDClrCXw

— The Spectator Australia (@SpectatorOz) January 2, 2026

Reform’s Zia Yusuf responded ominously: “It’s already begun.”

It’s already begun. pic.twitter.com/snLE9DIKnR

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) January 1, 2026

Uniparty latest. https://t.co/z01FAdtHjZ

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) January 2, 2026

Cummings also described the Conservative Party as “completely dead,” urging that “They’re like the local vagrant who used to smash everything up who is now cabbaged in a wheelchair and isn’t relevant anymore.”

Dominic Cummings: 'The Tories are completely dead. They're like the local vagrant who used to smash everything up who is now cabbaged in a wheelchair and isn't relevant anymore.'@Dominic2306 @michaelgove @Madz_Grant pic.twitter.com/WnKJwqGlJq

— The Spectator (@spectator) January 2, 2026

The warning comes amid reports of media smears against Farage, including decades-old allegations from The Guardian, which he dismissed as backfiring: “It’s having zero effect. It’s maybe solidifying our core support.”

‘It shows how desperate they are.’

Nigel Farage MP lashes out at ‘the Guardian and the BBC’ for reporting on the racist allegations made towards the Leader of Reform. pic.twitter.com/fuTi63CMRk

— GB News (@GBNEWS) November 25, 2025

Farage vowed in a New Year’s message that strong local election results could propel Reform to victory in the next general election: “If we get this right on May 7 this year, we will go on and win that General Election.”

Cummings’ exposé aligns perfectly with revelations from ex-Starmer aide Paul Ovenden, who just hours earlier accused civil servants of hijacking government via a “Stakeholder State” obsessed with fringe issues while siphoning power from voters.

Ovenden slammed this perma-class for wasting time on bizarre priorities like importing anti-white activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah, calling it a “morbid symptom of a state that has got bigger and bigger while simultaneously and systematically emasculating itself.”

This entrenched blob – NGOs, regulators, and lobbyists – now appears laser-focused on neutralizing threats like Farage, using dirty tricks to protect their grip.

It’s the same elite network plotting cradle-to-grave surveillance through newborn digital IDs, as exposed in our report on Labour’s dystopian scheme to track citizens from birth under the guise of immigration control.

The message is clear: the Deep State are not willing to let populists like Farage further disrupt their globalist agenda.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/04/2026 - 08:10