Big Shake-Up: Putin Fires Head Of Aerospace Forces After Devastating Ukrainian Drone Attacks

There are reports out of Russia of another high level firing within the defense ministry. This time, President Putin has reportedly sacked the head of Russia's Aerospace Forces, which is the armed services branch responsible for the country's air defenses.

Moscow-based news outlet RBC reports that General Viktor Afzalov has been replaced by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko. Afzalov had first been appointed to the command post in 2023.

Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

However, the Kremlin did not immediately comment on or confirm the shake-up, but it comes amid growing anger among the Russian populace and among leadership following a series of major Ukrainian drone attacks.

For example, the major Black Sea hub of the Tuapse Oil Refinery has been struck four times in the last several weeks, creating a local environmental disaster which has also seen days of large fires.

The recent series of highly destructive Ukrainian drone attacks has even reached faraway Perm, near the Ural mountains, where an oil complex there was reported struck.

These latest drone waves have not been stopped by Russian anti-air defenses, and Ukraine's cheap but highly capable drone attacks have appeared to easily thwart any countermeasures.

As for the new head of the Aerospace Forces, he takes command amid a high pressure situation. If he can't stop the ongoing drone onslaught, then he too could face quick removal:

Alexander Chaiko was born in 1971 in the Moscow region. He graduated from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School. According to the Ministry of Defense website, he served in positions ranging from reconnaissance platoon commander to commander of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District. In 2001, he graduated from the Frunze Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces. In 2012, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff.

He held the positions of deputy commander of the combined arms army of the Central Military District, commander of the combined arms army of the Western Military District, chief of staff – first deputy, and commander of the troops of the Eastern Military District. In 2019, he was appointed deputy chief of the General Staff.

Chaiko has already been sanctioned by the European Union, as he's stood accused serving as a lead commander during the Russian occupation of Bucha - after which Moscow was accused of indiscriminate killings of civilians, which the Kremlin denies.

RBK reported that Colonel-General Aleksandr Chaiko (left) was appointed commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov (right).

Chaiko is a former Ground Forces officer who began the 2022 invasion as commander of the Eastern Military… pic.twitter.com/3FOUfTI4KA

— John Hardie (@JohnH105) May 4, 2026

Meanwhile, last week Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced "a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia's war."

Despite Ukrainian forces being slowly rolled back on the battlefield in the east, drone warfare remains about the only leverage that Kiev has at this point.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Inflation Scapegoat: Why Hormuz Is A Convenient Cover Story

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Over the weekend, economist Gerrit Heinemann warned in Bild of a drastic increase in food prices in Germany. The scholar from Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences focused his analysis on the massive rise in fertilizer prices. A significant share of these—estimated at roughly one third of global production—is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the dual blockage of the strait, this sector too has entered a state of global scarcity, forcing farmers worldwide to adjust prices, which ultimately feeds through to consumer prices.

Heinemann concludes that Germany’s food price index could rise by as much as ten percent this year. In Berlin, a familiar narrative has already taken hold, and there is broad agreement: the Hormuz crisis alone is responsible for the disaster. Yet core inflation had already reached around 2.7 percent year-on-year in March. Price increases across the entire spectrum of goods—especially energy and housing, which has become scarce due to migration—have accompanied Germany’s economic decline for quite some time. Only the dramatic slump in private investment and general consumer restraint have slightly dampened price pressures in recent years.

What stands out in this development is the steady upward revision of inflation forecasts. In March, there was consensus between the Economics Ministry and leading research institutes that inflation would come in at around three percent this year. By early April, after one month of the Iran crisis, economists at the International Monetary Fund were projecting price increases of five to six percent.

Now comes the ten-percent hammer in food prices. One could also put it this way: the culprit for rising prices in Germany has been found. Media and government point at every opportunity to Washington, where the supposed architect of the disaster allegedly sits: Donald Trump. But does this thesis hold?

Simultaneous with the abrupt rise in inflation forecasts are the recurring downward revisions of Germany’s economic growth rates. After more than two decades of eco-socialist restructuring, loose monetary policy, and now rapidly expanding public debt, Germany’s economy can be described simply: it is retreating in a dramatic process of contraction, while prices will continue to rise amid a crisis of productivity and investment. Incidentally, food prices rose by more than 40 percent between 2019 and 2025 as financial markets and the broader economy were flooded with cheap credit during the lockdown period, as documented by the Federal Statistical Office.

Hormuz is a cheap diversion from the disastrous policies that the firewall party cartel has been pursuing for some time in order to build a new green socialism. We are witnessing a radical paradigm shift not seen since the end of the Second World War. It is common knowledge that cheap energy, technological openness, a functioning market economy, and stable money were the factors that once underpinned Germany’s economic success.

It is now proving costly to be at odds with its most important energy and raw materials supplier, Russia, and to have effectively declared perpetual conflict with Moscow. History teaches us that ideological fervor always goes hand in hand with fanaticism. Blowing up one’s own nuclear capacity was, quite literally, a reckless gamble—an act of blind ideological infantilism rarely seen anywhere in the world in our era.

Together with Brussels, Berlin is pursuing a scorched-earth policy when it comes to returning to a market-based energy framework and sound regulatory principles. No matter how hard the current energy crisis hits, German policymakers remain committed to their green-socialist ideology. By clinging rigidly to CO₂ rent-seeking, grotesque climate regulation, and an energy policy run amok, the country has maneuvered itself into a geopolitical straitjacket. Germany’s economy now has its back against the wall. And Berlin has found its solution: the German middle class will be bled dry to finance the capital’s debt excesses and conceal the scale of the disaster.

What is dramatically worsening the situation in recent weeks is a series of attacks worldwide on refinery infrastructure. Whether in the United States, Australia, or war-affected Russia, the problems are intensifying. For Germany, an additional blow is that Russia will halt the transit of Kazakh oil to the Schwedt refinery via the Druzhba pipeline.

It is high time to develop domestic energy resources—fracking gas and drilling in the North and Baltic Seas—to signal to markets and consumers that rational policymaking has returned. Only then could Germany credibly declare the end of its post-Enlightenment delusion. A Europe-wide initiative to finance and build nuclear capacity would be urgently required. Yet Brussels and Berlin have decided otherwise: if necessary, access to energy will be rationed. The expansion of eco-socialism is to continue at all costs—energy thus becomes an absolute lever of political power over citizens, who are suffering from the ideological rigidity and intellectual failure of European policymakers to reduce energy dependence through market mechanisms and negotiated solutions.

The inflation problem is self-inflicted. Only a completely distorted and ideologically colored media narrative surrounding the Iran crisis and the consequences of centralized energy policy has so far prevented the public from correctly perceiving the economic disaster. The year 2026 will likely be the year in which personal escapism carries severe monetary consequences.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 02:00

Horrifying "Rape Festival" Sparks Worldwide Outrage

Videos circulating on social media out of Nigeria have ignited shock and horror after appearing to show groups of men chasing, stripping and sexually assaulting women in broad daylight during a traditional “fertility" festival in the country’s southern Delta State, according to news.com.au.

The incidents unfolded on March 19 during the Alue-Do festival in Ozoro, a triennial rite in the Uruamudhu community of the Ozoro Kingdom. Intended to invoke blessings for married women struggling with conception, the event involves processions to a community shrine. Local customs reportedly advise single women to remain indoors. However, footage depicted young women fleeing through crowded streets, pursued by mobs who tore at their clothing, groped them and subjected them to public humiliation while bystanders filmed and, in some cases, appeared to cheer.

The graphic clips, which spread rapidly on platforms including X, Instagram and Facebook, have fueled national outrage, trending hashtags such as #endsexualviolence.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Every Woman is Worthy® (@everywomanisworthy)

Delta State police have responded with arrests. Authorities confirmed that at least 15 people, including a community leader and several young men identified in the videos, are in custody, the BBC reports. Police spokesperson Bright Edafe described the scenes as “alarming, disgusting and embarrassing,” adding that suspects have been transferred to the State Criminal Investigation Department for prosecution. Investigations continue, though officials noted that no formal complaints of rape have been filed to date. Some women reportedly required hospitalization.

One of the alleged victims told police she was attacked within minutes of arriving at the event to the "rape festival."

“Immediately I came down, they started shouting ‘hold her, hold her, that’s a woman’, and they swooped on me like bees,” the alleged victim said, according to the Daily Express. “A large crowd started pulling my clothes until they stripped me naked. They were pulling my breasts and touching my whole body … I was shouting for help.”

Women’s rights activists claim this isn’t the first event where mass rape has occured.

“This is not just about what happened in those videos,” said Rita Aiki, an activist with the Women’s Rights Advancement and Protection Alternative, the New York Post reported. “It’s about the conditions that make it possible for this kind of violence to happen in public, with so many people watching and no one stepping in.”

“It tells you something about what is being normalized in a given society,” she added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 23:00

Meta Raising $13 Billion SPV For Texas Data Center As Its CDS Hits Record

Back in January, just days before the latest private crash swept across markets, we reminded readers that one of the biggest abusers of private credit SPVs was none other than Meta which as of 2025 was "already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt." We then showed a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with private credit ground zero - Blue Owl - titled "Project Beignet", which was created for Meta's Hyperion data center, "none of this touches META's balance sheet." We said to expect "hundreds of billions of these in 2026."

As a reminder, META is already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt. Here is a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with Blue Owl "Project Beignet" for the Hyperion data center. None of this touches META's balance sheet.

Expect hundreds of billions of these in 2026 https://t.co/794EgSiiZ9 pic.twitter.com/7hMyVW6Lno

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2026

Little did we know that the first big (ab)user of SPVs in 2026 would be none other than Meta again. 

According to Bloomberg, the company formerly known as Facebook, is working on another financing package wrapped as a special purpose vehicle, this time for a data center in El Paso, that could total over $13 billion -  or roughly half of the Beignet - underscoring Big Tech’s growing reliance on debt to bankroll the infrastructure behind the AI boom, which as we noted earlier is now expected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2027 capex spending.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are leading the process this time, according to Bloomberg sources. And just like Project Beignet, a large majority of the financing is expected to be in the form of debt, with the rest equity.

And indeed, Bloomberg confirms that Meta’s effort is similar to an almost $30 billion financing package it completed last year for a data center site in rural Louisiana, and which included $27 billion in debt which Meta raised through a special purpose entity known as Beignet Investor, which we discussed in January, and which is named after the popular Louisiana pastry.  

The food theme has persisted, and this latest transaction, dubbed Sopaipilla, is named after a fried pastry popular in the Southwestern parts of the country.

But why go the extra mile to come up with another complicated scheme instead of getting secured financing? Simple: there is little direct demand for the paper, and second, Meta is spending more than $10 billion on the data center in El Paso, which is a material jump from prior projections. By the time the data center is completed, the final bill will be even greater. 

The gigawatt-sized data center is expected to come online in 2028, and will support more than 300 on-site jobs once completed. Meta has also said its construction needs will grow given the increased investment, and now anticipates 4,000 temporary workers to be on site during the peak construction period.

When Meta sealed Beignet’s deal, where Blue Owl was the co-investor at the Project Beignet Holdings level, the company turned to PIMCO as its anchor lender on the transaction. With Sopaipilla, there is nobody to anchor the deal; instead Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan - who have zero interest in holding on to the debt - will quietly try to syndicate the debt to other capital markets investors. 

Since the Beignet transaction, data center financing has exploded across investment-grade and junk-bond markets, as we first reported last October in "AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To Become The Largest Sector In The Market." In the high-yield space, more than $20 billion of bonds and loans have launched in the past three weeks alone, while Meta itself raised $25 billion in bonds last week. Still, investors have shown some signs of fatigue amid the deluge, and nowhere more so than in Meta's own Credit Default Swaps which are trading at record wides.

Beside concerns about the company's debt, there are even bigger concerns over Meta’s outlook, as investors worry that the company’s massive investments in AI won’t pay off... just like they failed to do when the company which changed its name to Meta spent tens of billions on the Metaverse, with abysmal returns. The company’s shares are down about 7.5% this year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 22:35

Trump's "Project Vault" Plans To Initially Buy Rare Earths From China

As we reported in February, the US Export-Import Bank’s proposed rare earth stockpiling initiative would initially source critical minerals from anywhere in the world - including China, an official involved in the project revealed to Bloomberg. The $12 billion Project Vault would later shift to a replenishment model that prioritizes domestic production first, followed by allied nations and other sources as a last resort, executives including Ex-Im Chief Banking Officer Brian Greeley said lastt week, unveiling some of the first details publicly announced on the project.

Greeley spoke alongside representatives of Glencore Plc. and Hartree Partners LP, which will be among trading houses procuring materials for Vault. The project aims to build an immediate buffer against critical mineral supply shocks while using future purchases to send a stronger demand signal to US and friendly-nation producers. 

Vault — which combines about $2 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Ex-Im loan — is President Trump’s latest effort to build an alternative supply chain for the materials, which are key for the production of electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and other low-carbon technologies. China is the dominant supplier of critical minerals worldwide.

The recent panel was the most robust public discussion of Vault since Ex-Im revealed the program in February. For nearly three months, metals investors, traders and consumers have sought details as the government worked behind the scenes to flesh out the project, according to Bloomberg. 

Attendees packed a conference room at a hotel in Washington, DC, to get details on Vault’s sourcing hierarchy and payment structure. After brief introductory remarks, the panel unexpectedly opened up the floor to an almost hour-long question-and-answer session.

The program’s so-called waterfall would give preference to domestic suppliers even when their material comes at a premium to allied alternatives, with participating manufacturers expected to accept that trade-off as part of joining the program, panelists said. The initial stockpile fill, however, would be driven chiefly by availability, reflecting the reality that some of the roughly 60 minerals under consideration are produced only in limited geographies and, in some cases, remain heavily influenced by China.

Vault is being structured as a demand-driven vehicle rather than a government-directed stockpile, the panelists revealed. Manufacturers would determine which minerals are stored, with the program then working with traders to secure supply. It’s designed to give US firms more leverage in opaque and fragmented markets where individual buyers often struggle to source smaller volumes efficiently or at transparent prices.

On storage, Greeley said the project will begin by relying on warehouse networks already controlled by trading partners and procurement providers. Over time, Vault is expected to develop its own storage network, either by building facilities or leasing them. A mature system could combine its own sites with third-party warehouses.

Panelists said the use of specialist traders would also be tailored to individual metals. Rather than sending orders into an open bidding process, Vault is expected to match procurement to firms with expertise in specific markets, allowing traders with relationships in cobalt, rare earths or other niche material sectors to handle those flows. The goal, panelists said, is to preserve pricing discipline, improve execution and avoid creating a scramble for hard-to-find materials.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 22:10

DC Judge 'Apologizes' To Alleged Trump Assassin

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has come under fire after expressing deep concern – described by multiple outlets as an apology – over the custody conditions of Cole Tomas Allen, the 31-year-old accused of attempting to assassinate President Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner on April 25.

The judge’s remarks, captured in court and widely circulated on X, have ignited accusations of a two-tier justice system that coddles violent attackers while everyday Americans watch their rights erode.

According to reports from the emergency hearing, U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui voiced serious worries about Allen’s placement in restrictive custody following the shooting incident.

SHOCKING: D.C. U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui *APOLOGIZED*’to alleged White House Correspondents Dinner shooter, Cole Allen, for the “treatment” he has experienced so far in custody.

“The judge is very concerned about his constitutional rights, saying the defendant has… pic.twitter.com/D9uAUGwefc

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) May 4, 2026

Fox News reported that “The judge is very concerned about his constitutional rights, saying the defendant has requested meetings with his legal team, and that has not been allowed. He’s been put in a restrictive 24-hour lockup with no windows in a padded room without an opportunity to get out for recreation.”

“He has been put on su*cide watch by the Department of Corrections, and the judge was asking why,” the reporter further noted.

Fox News host Larry Kudlow ripped into the development live on air, echoing the growing frustration.

“The judge apologised to this guy, who would’ve sprayed the whole audience?! And killed God knows how many people? Then would’ve taken a shot at the president? We’re apologizing to this guy?! I don’t GET that!”

Allen, a California man with no prior criminal record, faces charges including attempted assassination of the president after authorities say he rushed a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton armed with a shotgun, handguns, and knives. Video evidence released by prosecutors shows the chaotic moments as he allegedly opened fire, wounding a Secret Service agent before being subdued. He remains in federal custody.

The judge’s intervention came during arguments over Allen’s suicide watch and housing conditions, with his defense team filing motions to ease restrictions they called punitive. Faruqui reportedly ordered jail officials to explain or adjust the setup, emphasizing due process and access to counsel.

As we previously highlighted, Allen’s social media posts paint a picture of an individual steeped in the same anti-Trump rhetoric that has dominated Democratic and media messaging for years – language that framed the president and his administration in extreme, dehumanizing terms.

The incident at the correspondents’ dinner exposed how years of inflammatory talk can push someone toward violence. Yet instead of focusing on root causes – the unchecked rhetoric from the left – some in the system appear more worried about the shooter’s “dignity” behind bars.

Conservatives have pointed out the glaring double standard. January 6 defendants endured months of harsh pretrial conditions without similar judicial hand-wringing from the same D.C. courts. Here, a man charged with targeting the president and potentially dozens of others receives immediate scrutiny over padded cells and recreation time.

The hearing underscored Faruqui’s view that Allen’s treatment stood out as unusually severe compared to others he has overseen. Defense filings highlighted barriers to legal preparation and basic communication, prompting the judge to demand answers from the Department of Corrections by early this week.

Critics argue this reflects a deeper rot in the federal judiciary, where activist judges prioritize suspects aligned with certain ideologies over public safety and accountability. Calls to remove or reassign such figures have intensified online, with many demanding reforms to prevent future coddling of would-be assassins.

President Trump and his administration have long warned about the weaponization of institutions against America First policies. This episode only reinforces that message: the deep state and its enablers in the courts will bend over backward for those who threaten the republic while punishing patriots who defend it.

As the case moves forward, with a grand jury expected to hear additional charges, Americans are watching closely. The radicalization that drove Allen to act didn’t emerge in a vacuum – it was fueled by the very Democratic messaging now being whitewashed in court.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 21:45

"Rare Sight": USAF C-17 Jets Land In Beijing Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

As the Strait of Hormuz takes center stage Monday morning, Iran is threatening to attack any ship that attempts to transit the critical waterway. This directly challenges President Trump's plan for the U.S. Navy to "guide" tankers and container ships through the chokepoint.

Looking beyond the ongoing Hormuz crisis, the China topic is next: Trump is still expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming weeks. This means any U.S.-Iran escalation could leave Hormuz disrupted for even longer and will undoubtedly be a major topic at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo that the Trump-Xi summit is still "happening, as far as I know."

This leaves us searching for real-world signals, not just headlines from officials, that the two-day summit is still scheduled to happen on May 14 despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

One signal comes from an aviation observer account on X, by the name "Safari," who says two U.S. Air Force C-17 transport jets landed at Beijing Capital International Airport in recent days, "making them a rare sight" at the airport.

为特朗普访华运送先遣物资任务的美国空军两架 C-17 在 5 月 1/2 日降落北京国际机场，属于是 PEK 难得一见的客人了。 pic.twitter.com/uYMDjCD4S5

— safari (@safaricheung) May 3, 2026

Safari continued,

On May 3, two more C17 transport planes carrying advance supplies for Trump's China visit landed at Beijing Capital International Airport, bringing the total to 4 aircraft. There are already so many plane spotters here to photograph the advance transport planes; I can't even imagine what kind of spectacle it'll be around Capital Airport when Air Force One actually arrives

为特朗普访华运送先遣物资任务的美国空军两架 C-17 在 5 月 1/2 日降落北京国际机场，属于是 PEK 难得一见的客人了。 pic.twitter.com/uYMDjCD4S5

— safari (@safaricheung) May 3, 2026

Polymarket odds:

//--> Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Yes 85% · No 15%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

As of this moment, based on Bessent's comments and reports of USAF C-17s landing in Beijing, all indications so far suggest that the Trump-Xi meeting is set to happen at the midpoint of this month.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 21:20

Iran War Threatens China's 4.5 Percent Growth Target: Analysts

Authored by Jarvis Lim via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China’s already-strained economy faces mounting pressure as the Iran war threatens to choke export growth and suppress domestic demand, putting its 4.5 percent growth target at risk, experts say.

A woman takes a photo of the Lujiazui financial district across the Huangpu River on the Bund promenade in Shanghai, China, on March 5, 2026. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images

As the U.S.–Israeli war against the Iranian regime stretches past the two-month mark, President Donald Trump said in an April 29 interview with Axios that he will continue to maintain a blockade of Iran until Tehran agrees to a deal addressing concerns over its nuclear program.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly spiked to over $120 a barrel after Trump’s remarks, hitting a four-year high before dropping back to $114. It now sits at around $108 as of Sunday afternoon.

Rising oil costs have also driven up plastic prices across Southern China, squeezing profit margins and triggering panic buying throughout the supply chain at Dongguan’s Zhangmutou—the nation’s top plastics trading hub.

China is the world’s largest producer, consumer, and exporter of final plastic products, according to a 2025 report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, an intergovernmental organization.

Export Squeeze 

Tsai Ming-fang, a professor of industrial economics at Tamkang University in Taiwan, said that while many argue China’s strategic oil inventories would shield it from the effects of a blockade, the turmoil in China’s plastics markets shows the conflict is already weighing on its manufacturing exports.

China is estimated to be holding the world’s largest crude stockpiles, at nearly 1.4 billion barrels as of December 2025 and growing in 2026, according to an analysis released in April by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Surging energy prices in financially unstable countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are squeezing out discretionary spending, dragging down China’s export shipments,” Tsai told The Epoch Times.

“If consumers don’t consider these Chinese goods necessities, China’s shipment volumes will naturally fall further.”

Containers at the Longtan port in Nanjing, eastern China's Jiangsu province on Jan. 14, 2026. AFP via Getty Images

Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—China’s largest trading partner—with bilateral trade reaching 6.82 trillion yuan ($999 billion) in the first 11 months of 2025.

Chinese exports to the bloc totaled 4.29 trillion yuan ($628 billion) over the same period, up 14.6 percent year on year, data from the Economic and Commercial Office of the Mission of the People’s Republic of China to ASEAN showed.

Echoing the concern, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis Research, said China’s export engine is now caught in a “double bind,” with higher shipping costs driven by Hormuz disruptions and softening end-markets across Southeast Asia.

“This is not yet a cliff edge, but the directional pressure [on China’s exports] is clearly downward, particularly in electronics, machinery, and mid-tier consumer goods,” Garcia-Herrero told The Epoch Times.

Liu Meng-chun, director of the Chung-Hua Institution of Economic Research’s mainland China division in Taipei, said war-driven inflation in advanced economies like the United States and Europe is eroding purchasing power, stifling demand for Chinese goods and compounding the country’s chronic overcapacity.

“The European Union overtook the United States as China’s second-largest export destination in 2025, but the conflict has stoked price pressures across the region, eating into the profit margins of Chinese firms,” Liu told The Epoch Times.

Exports from the world’s second-largest economy grew just 2.5 percent year on year in March, a sharp pullback from the 21.8 percent expansion recorded in January and February, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

Faltering Demand

On the consumer front, Chinese car sales—widely viewed as a barometer of domestic demand—are declining.

Passenger vehicle retail sales in China fell 15 percent year on year in March to 1.648 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

Cumulative sales in the first quarter of 2026 reached 4.226 million units, down 17.4 percent from a year prior.

“The prolonged stalemate in the Middle East crisis has driven international oil prices sharply higher ... suppressing the release of consumer potential,” the industry body said.

A receptionist sits near the Leapmotor T03 model displayed at a showroom in Hangzhou in eastern China's Zhejiang province on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. Caroline Chen/AP Photo

Garcia-Herrero noted that China’s domestic demand was already under strain before the Iran war, warning that the ongoing energy shock will only exacerbate the decline.

“Elevated oil prices are feeding directly into transport and manufacturing input costs, squeezing household purchasing power and eroding consumer confidence,” she said.

China’s consumer price index, a key gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent year-on-year in March and was down 0.3 percentage points from February, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The producer price index (PPI)—a measure of costs at the factory gate—climbed 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier, reversing a 0.9 percent decline in February and marking its first rise after 41 consecutive months of contraction.

But Tsai cautioned against interpreting China’s PPI increase as a sign of economic recovery.

“The PPI rebound stems from energy cost pass-throughs driven by the conflict, rather than any genuine pickup in domestic spending,” Tsai said.

“The latest data indicates China is likely still grappling with internal ‘involution.’”

“Involution” describes a cycle in which Chinese firms compete ever more fiercely for a shrinking pool of consumers, driving down prices and profits without generating real economic growth.

As the fighting in Iran persists, the erosion of both domestic spending and export growth will inevitably deal a severe blow to China’s job market, according to Liu.

“The export sector has traditionally offered massive employment opportunities, but sluggish foreign trade is now constraining wage growth,” Liu said.

“Under these circumstances, the unemployment rate could rise further, hidden unemployment will become more pronounced, and the labor market will continue to contract.”

According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on April 21, the unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24, excluding students, rose to 16.9 percent in March, up from 16.1 percent in February.

Dimming Outlook  

In March, China’s State Council announced an economic growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, its lowest since the early 1990s, not including the pandemic.

Construction workers leave a building site for a new office tower in the Central Business District in Beijing on April 3, 2025. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Tsai said Beijing’s decision to lower its growth target reflects its own lack of confidence in the economy, and the protracted conflict in the Middle East has only darkened the outlook further.

“Unless China’s major trading partners—including Africa, Southeast Asia, and the EU—dramatically scale up imports, hitting Beijing’s growth target looks increasingly unlikely,” Tsai said.

“Besides, new legislation from the EU is piling further pressure on China’s economy.”

The European Commission unveiled the Industrial Accelerator Act on March 4, imposing strict screening on foreign investments exceeding 100 million euros ($117 million) in sectors that account for more than 40 percent of global capacity, such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy, and critical raw materials.

The move—widely viewed by analysts as targeting China—drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which claimed the framework was “discriminatory,” and constituted “severe investment barriers.”

Echoing Tsai’s assessment, Garcia-Herrero said hitting 4.5 percent growth remains “achievable on paper,” but the margin for error has narrowed considerably.

“Beijing retains meaningful policy tools—fiscal stimulus, targeted monetary easing, and strategic energy reserves,” Garcia-Herrero said.

“But deploying them effectively against an externally driven inflation shock is a different challenge than managing domestic cycles.”

Garcia-Herrero predicted that if the Hormuz blockade extends beyond the second quarter, a revision toward 3.8 to 4.2 percent looks “increasingly likely.”

“The 4.5 percent target now depends heavily on a conflict resolution timeline that China cannot control,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 20:55

New York Parole Bills Could Free Some Of The State’s Most Notorious Killers

Two parole reform bills advancing in New York are triggering intense debate, with supporters calling them long-overdue criminal justice reforms and critics warning they could allow violent offenders to leave prison early, according to the NY Post.

One proposal, known as the Elder Parole bill, would allow incarcerated individuals to request parole hearings once they reach age 55 and have served at least 15 years of their sentence. That eligibility would extend to some inmates serving life sentences, and those denied parole could reapply every two years.

The second proposal, Fair and Timely Parole, would change how parole boards evaluate inmates by placing greater focus on whether someone currently poses a risk to public safety instead of heavily weighing the original crime. Backers say the current system often ignores evidence of rehabilitation and keeps people incarcerated long after they have changed.

The NY Post writes that advocates argue older inmates are far less likely to commit new crimes and are expensive to keep in prison as they age. Release Aging People in Prison has pushed for both measures, saying elderly inmates who have taken accountability for their actions deserve a meaningful chance at release. “The evidence is clear that forcing completely rehabilitated elders to spend their final years in prison costs a fortune and delivers zero public safety benefit,” said Olivia Murphy of the organization.

Opponents, however, say the bills could have dangerous consequences. Critics point out that inmates convicted in some of the state’s most infamous cases — including David Berkowitz and Mark David Chapman, who murdered John Lennon — could potentially become eligible for release.

Raphael Mangual of the Manhattan Institute argued that rehabilitation in prison should not erase the severity of violent crimes. “It really shouldn’t matter how well somebody behaves in prison. You should have behaved before you got there,” he said.

Victims’ families have also voiced concerns, saying repeated parole hearings force them to revisit painful tragedies. Michael Pravia, whose brother Kevin was killed in 2008, criticized lawmakers backing the legislation and warned, “They will have blood on their hands.”

Mark David Chapman

Kathy Hochul has not said whether she would sign either bill if they pass. As the legislation moves forward, the fight over parole reform continues to center on two competing priorities: rehabilitation and second chances versus justice and public safety.

Supporters of the legislation maintain that the bills are being mischaracterized by opponents who are focusing on extreme examples. Yes, how dare they exaggerate about mass murder... 

'They argue that parole eligibility does not guarantee release and that every case would still go through a review process. Advocates also say New York’s prison population is aging rapidly, creating rising healthcare costs for the state while keeping behind bars people they believe no longer pose a serious threat.

Still, critics remain unconvinced and say the proposals send the wrong message to victims and their families. They argue that certain crimes are so severe that the original sentence should stand regardless of an inmate’s age or behavior in prison. With both sides digging in, the future of the bills could ultimately depend on whether lawmakers—and Kathy Hochul—view the measures as necessary reform or an unacceptable risk to public safety.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 20:30

Elites And Their Contempt

Authored by Reverend John F. Naugle via The Brownstone Institute,

Last week, I was unexpectedly hit with a post-lockdown trauma response.

While driving to a baseball game days before the NFL Draft came to Pittsburgh, I passed a digital highway sign instructing me to avoid nonessential travel.

Suddenly, memories of empty highways with signs instructing drivers to “Stay Safe and Stay Home” came flooding back to me.

As the week developed, it began to occur to me that the parallels were deeper than my subjective emotional response.

Road closures intensified, rendering my beloved city of Pittsburgh less and less functional.

Even sidewalks were closed. 

Entire parking garages were emptied and abandoned.

Pittsburgh’s “most visited museum,” the Kamin Science Center, has been closed to the public for weeks because it was within the footprint of the upcoming event.

For the actual days of the draft, Pittsburgh Public Schools were shuttered as if a blizzard had rendered travel impossible.

How do I walk to PNC Park?

The attempt by local officials to trigger hysteria in the populace worked, maybe too well. People traveling to Pittsburgh for the event heeded the instructions to use the special free public transit to make their way in. Parking operators, expecting a huge windfall, saw themselves lower their exorbitant prices midday. For example, the Rivers Casino quickly abandoned their plan to charge $250 per day, lowering their rate to $100 for the first day of the draft and then abandoning charging altogether for subsequent days.

Local businesses outside the official footprint of the event were told to prepare for heavy crowds, but instead experienced a weekend worse than anything they had seen since the Covid hysteria. Those who didn’t want to go to the draft were terrified to go anywhere near the city.

In summary, children were deprived of education, small business owners were drastically harmed, public spaces which exist for the common good were shuttered, and normal life ceased for those who actually live in the City of Pittsburgh. While all of this was happening, local politicians were patting themselves on the back for how well everything was pulled off, taking pride that this draft broke attendance records for the NFL and that their plans of getting people in and out of the city were effective. It was our own personal Operation Warp Speed.

I think there’s a lesson here that applies not merely to Pittsburgh politics but also to the wider dysfunction we see in elected officials throughout what used to be Western Civilization.

Our political leaders view their own constituents with a sort of boredom or indifference. In the leadup to the draft, Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania engaged in a number of public works projects designed to improve the area in preparation for the draft. 

Suddenly, our governments remembered that potholes aren’t supposed to be allowed to exist and that crime isn’t supposed to be allowed to happen. For three days, Pittsburgh had a heavily subsidized and highly functional public transit system, something that hasn’t existed the entirety of my lifetime.

Any one of these projects could have been accomplished at any time, but the actual people who live there provided insufficient motivation for our leaders. Rather, what really mattered to them was looking good in front of millionaires, soon-to-be millionaires, and the powerful elites who would gather to party the night away with Nelly, Steve Aoki, and 2 Chainz.

Road closures during the NFL Draft

Meanwhile, the elites themselves seem to view the common people with at least implicit contempt.

They desire entire blocks to be shut down for their own amusement.

The common man, including those who wait upon them, should be relegated to buses or walking so as not to encroach upon their experience. This is their party, and the city is lucky to have them there.

We live in a world where the elites view the common man as a problem to be solved and the leaders elected by the common man anxiously present themselves as lapdogs to these elites, forgetting any sense of duty or obligation to those who placed them in power.

We saw this during lockdowns, we saw this as inflation raged on, and we see it now as gas prices remain above $4.

The urgent and pressing question that faces all of us: what is the political solution in a system where elected officials conspire with elites who hold the voters themselves in contempt?

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 20:05

The post Is Chinese AI the Remedy to Inequality? appeared first on CEPR.

Sacked Russian Minister Flees To US Amid Corruption Probe In First Of Ukraine War

A Russian minister has become the first known high-ranking official to flee Russia and seek asylum in the United States since the Ukraine war began over four years ago, amid a fraud probe.

Denis Butsayev, a senior Russian official recently dismissed from the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry, fled to the US to avoid criminal prosecution, regional media reports say.

President Putin meets with then General Director of the Russian Environmental Operator Denis Butsayev

He was officially removed from his post as deputy minister on April 22 by an order of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Soon after, and pending possible arrest,  Butsayev left the country by traveling through neighboring Belarus.

"Butsayev's departure is the first known case of a sitting official of this rank fleeing the country," independent journalist Farida Rustamova wrote. Butsayev is "lucky to have friends who were able to warn him on time," one source told the journalist.

Prior to his appointment to the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry in 2025, Butsayev served as CEO of the Russian Ecological Operator (or, Environmental Operator), a state-backed entity with charge of the country's national waste management reforms.

Butsayev has not been formally charged, but he's a person of interest amid an ongoing probe of other senior officials for corruption. According to more details in Meduza:

In late April, several anonymous Telegram channels reported that a criminal case had been opened against Yury Valdayev, the administrative director of Russian Ecological Operator (REO) — the operator company of the garbage reform — on fraud charges. Butsayev worked at REO from April to November 2019, was subsequently appointed first deputy governor of Belgorod Region, and returned as CEO of REO in November 2020, a post he held until moving to the Natural Resources Ministry in 2025.

Criminal cases have also been opened against two other senior REO managers, Yekaterina Stepkina and Maxim Shcherbakov, Vedomosti’s sources say, and Butsayev is mentioned in the case materials as well. In what capacity he appears there, and what the cases concern, is unclear.

According to more on Butsayev, "He does not appear on U.S., Canadian, British, or EU sanctions lists, and his current whereabouts are unknown, Faridaily reported."

While nothing is currently known or confirmed as to his guilt or innocence in alleged fraud, regional opposition and anti-Moscow media tend to hail any such officials as heroes valiantly fleeing a Kremlin crackdown. However, this could also just be another standard corruption case in a region which has a long history of it.

Russia’s former Deputy Minister of Natural Resources, Denis Butsaev, has fled the country.
After his dismissal on April 22, he rushed to Minsk, then Tbilisi, and is now believed to be in the USA — the first known high-level official to escape amid a major corruption probe into… pic.twitter.com/aHnamwcbow

— Strategic News of Ua (@2_vatalive) May 2, 2026

The last couple years have seen a much broader Kremlin purge of top military ranks connected to the Ukraine war, but this situation seems to have stabilized of late. As for the war in Ukraine, it has seemed stalemated, with Russian forces reportedly making slow but steady gains; however, Ukraine's drones have been able to inflict serious damage on Russian oil refineries and export facilities, especially in recent months.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 19:40

Virtue Gone Mad: Manager Punished More Harshly Than The Shoplifter He Stopped

Authored by Theodore Dalrymple via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

Nietzsche thought that the decline of the Christian religion in Europe would inevitably lead to a social, cultural, and moral crisis. This was because a traditional morality based upon religious belief could not be upheld once the religious belief itself weakened or was abandoned.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

This was not an original thought. The poet and essayist Matthew Arnold said much the same thing in a poem, “Dover Beach,” written in the 1840s but not published until 1867, before Nietzsche:

The Sea of Faith Was once, too, at the full, and round earth’s shore Lay like the folds of a bright girdle furled. But now I only hear Its melancholy, long, withdrawing roar...

This, thought Arnold, had the consequence that life would have no transcendent meaning. His answer to this problem was human love, the only solution to moral, social, and intellectual chaos:

Ah, love, let us be true To one another! for the world, which seems To lie before us like a land of dreams, So various, so beautiful, so new, Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain; And we are here as on a darkling plain Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight, Where ignorant armies clash by night.

Nietzsche’s solution was different. He didn’t approve of the old morality anyway, of compassion for the poor, kindness to strangers, and so forth, which he thought was the means, or even the ploy, by which the weak and feeble lorded it over the strong and healthy, and subdued them to the great detriment of human creativity.

He suggested instead that strong men should take life into their own hands, submit to no authority, and decide for themselves what they should do, all in the pursuit of superior creativity and Dionysian enjoyment. The strong, not the meek, would inherit the earth, and the best would rise to the top and dominate. There should, and would, be a transvaluation—a reversal—of all previously held values.

Arnold and Nietzsche were right about the decline of religious belief and the moral and intellectual confusion it would bring about. But the change in moral values that came about was not to so much the transvaluation wished for by Nietzsche as a perversion of the former values, as famously pointed out by the write G.K. Chesterton, who was far more realistic than Nietzsche, not long after Nietzsche’s death:

“The modern world is not evil; in some ways the modern world is far too good. It is full of wild and wasted virtues. When a religious scheme is shattered…, it is not merely the vices that are let loose. The vices are, indeed, let loose, and they wander and do damage. But the virtues are let loose also; and the virtues wander more wildly, and the virtues do more terrible damage. The modern world is full of the old Christian virtues gone mad. The virtues have gone mad because they have been isolated from each other and are wandering alone. Thus some scientists care for truth; and their truth is pitiless. Thus some humanitarians only care for pity; and their pity (I am sorry to say) is often untruthful.”

The truth of this is borne out by a recent case in England. Sean Egan, the manager of a supermarket store in Walsall, England, one of a large chain, who had worked for the company for all his 29 years after leaving school, was dismissed because he was involved in a physical confrontation with a prolific shoplifter in his store.

He asked the shoplifter, who had at least 100 convictions, to leave the store, whereupon the shoplifter became abusive and aggressive, spitting at Egan, who then tried to restrain him.

The shoplifter alleged that Egan had assaulted him, and the store dismissed the employee of 29 years for not having followed company policy. There was a public outcry, a public demonstration outside the store, and many people vowed never to patronize it or any of its branches again.

The company, using the kind of managerial language in which it is almost impossible to tell a straightforward truth, put out a statement:

“We have very clear guidance, procedures and controls in place to protect our colleagues and customers from the risk of harm, which must be strictly followed. These include detailed procedures for handling shoplifting incidents, which are in place to protect both the colleague involved and surrounding colleagues and customers, and which seek to de-escalate and calmly control the situation. We will not ask colleagues to put themselves at risk. As a responsible employer, our focus is entirely on taking the correct action to ensure health and safety is maintained at all times.”

In this incident, we can see that both Nietzsche and G.K. Chesterton were partly right. A debased compassion for everyone, no doubt a derivative of Christianity, in the form of an abstract concern for health and safety above all other considerations, encouraged a vice (shoplifting) to flourish while an act of heroism and obedience to duty, at a level higher than that of mere following of procedure, was reprehended and punished.

Procedure is good as a guideline, and in some instances, though not very many in everyday life, is essential—for example, in the flying of an aircraft. But where is it is bowed down to and worshipped as if it were a jealous god, it leads to a brainless formalism, gross injustice, and an absurd situation in which a man who attempts to prevent shoplifting is punished much more severely than is the shoplifter.

The shoplifter was given a sentence of 42 weeks’ imprisonment, which, since 50 percent remission in England is automatic, means 21 weeks (and the government has recently all but abolished prison sentences of less than a year). Meanwhile, the 46-year-old manager of the supermarket has lost his job in the only company for which he has ever worked and will not easily find another—or would not have done so had there not been a public outcry.

As Nietzsche might have put it, there has been a transvaluation of all values.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 19:15

Hormuz Closure 'Inflicting Enormous Impact' On Asia: Japan's PM Takaichi

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is "inflicting enormous impact" on the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Monday in somewhat dramatic remarks before the press.

Takaichi's words were issued from Canberra, on the occasion of Japan having signed agreements with Australia on critical minerals, energy security, and defense cooperation amid high-level talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Albanese in turn endorsed her assessment, stating: "Today, (we are) again facing an energy shock and global instability... Our partnership helps us secure the energy we both need."

via Associated Press

Takaichi also said in reference to the Strait of Hormuz, "We affirmed that Japan and Australia will closely communicate with each other in responding with a sense of urgency."

According to more:

Australia provides approximately one-third of Japan’s energy supplies and is the country’s largest market for liquefied natural gas. Both Canberra and Tokyo have been trying to shore up energy supplies due to the Iran war.

"Like Japan, we are very concerned by disruptions to the supply of liquid fuels and refined petroleum products," Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

“In a complex strategic environment, cooperation between Australia and Japan is essential to maintaining a peaceful, stable and prosperous region," Albanese additionally said. "Enhanced defense and security cooperation between Australia and Japan increases interoperability between our defense forces, ensuring Australia and Japan can work closely together to support regional peace and security."

Tokyo and Canberra finalized a $7 billion defense agreement just last month, and a central part of this involves Japan supplying Australia with 11 warships.

China has also suffered negative impact of its Iranian oil flows being blocked; however, Beijing is arguably in a better position to weather the storm when compared to the impact to US allies in the region.

One recent op-ed in The American Conservative argued that "While China is to some extent dependent on Gulf oil, so is the rest of Asia. While the United States might be insulated from some of the worst consequences of the Hormuz closure, the economies of our Asian allies are not."

Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi has told Australian reporters in Canberra that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is ’inflicting an ‘enormous impact’ on Asia Pacific.

She said both countries are coordinating to alleviate the crisis. pic.twitter.com/YudZXmifOe

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 4, 2026

It continued, "Asian economies are among the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with South Korea receiving around 70 percent and Japan receiving a whopping 95 percent of their oil from the Middle East," and observed that "The Council on Foreign Relations notes that in 2024, 84 percent of the oil and 83 percent of LNG shipped through Hormuz were bound for Asia." The analysis concluded: "That is not a targeted squeeze. Instead, such a move looks to be made without much heed to Asia at all, hitting the very states Washington is supposedly positioning against Beijing."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 18:50

The COVID Playbook Returns: Energy Rationing & The Politics Of Crisis Control

Authored by Chris MacIntosh via Doug Casey's International Man,

This recent headline from New Zealand should itself send chills down your spine…

“Government reveals details of fuel crisis rationing plan – and who will be prioritized.”

Anytime the pointy shoes get to decide who will and who will not get something, you must realise that you’re about to get royally screwed.

The uncomfortable parallels between the Convid response and the proposed fuel rationing plan cannot be ignored.

On the surface, the Fuel Response Plan looks more restrained than Covid. It’s incremental, it defers to markets in early phases, and it explicitly frames escalation as a last resort. Officials are at pains to say Phases 3 and 4 are unlikely. Then again, we saw the same BS with the Covid scam. This is deliberate positioning.

The architecture of this plan is strikingly familiar…

The Structural Parallels

Escalating powers are dressed as prudent planning.

Covid began with “two weeks to flatten the curve.” The fuel plan begins with “monitor and inform.” In both cases, the framework is designed to normalise the existence of extraordinary powers before they’re used.

Phases 3 and 4 — rationing, purchasing limits, directed distribution — are legally and politically pre-legitimised by their inclusion in a published plan. The plan doesn’t just prepare for a crisis; it prepares the public to accept an intervention they haven’t yet been asked about. Most notably there is no consultation mechanism.

This is pure top-down central planning. The illusion of democracy should be well and truly shattered. Sadly, I suspect the sheep will fall for it… again.

Ministerial discretion is the operative mechanism. The Fuel Security Ministerial Oversight Group decides when to move between phases, guided by six criteria — none of which are automatic triggers. Ministers “will consider a broad range of information” and “assess the full picture.”

This is identical to the Covid Alert Level system, where Ashley Bloomfield and Jacinda Ardern effectively held unchecked discretion over the country’s movement. The criteria provide political cover, not genuine constraint. It was a smokescreen, and so is this.

Consultation theatre. Phases 3 and 4 are labelled “under consultation” — but consultation with whom, on what timeline, with what veto power?

Covid’s “consultation” with business groups and regional authorities was largely performative. There is no reason to expect this to be different.

Where It’s Actually Worse

The priority bands are socially explosive.

Band A through E create a formal hierarchy of citizens. Very undemocratic, of course — but hey, who’s asking questions? It’s a crisis, dammit.

Emergency services and defence get uncapped supply. General retail consumers are last. This is defensible in an emergency — but it also means that in a sustained disruption, ordinary people rationing school runs and commutes are subsidising the uninterrupted operation of government and defence.

During Covid, economic pain was at least notionally shared. Here, it is explicitly stratified by decree.

“Economically important services” is wide open. Band B includes “critical transport services” and “food supply and primary production during time-critical periods.” Who defines time-critical? Who decides which freight is critical? If I’m a small guy distributing food from wholesalers to local delis, do I get priority? I highly doubt it. Nope — it’s going to be like Convid. A chosen few.

This is the same stupid bureaucratic discretion grant that, under Covid, would have been used to favour large incumbents — supermarket chains, major logistics operators — while small operators fought for scraps. Nothing in this document prevents that.

No exit criteria. The plan says measures “will be lifted as soon as conditions allow.” Covid said the same.

New Zealand maintained some of the most restrictive border policies in the developed world for nearly two years. “As soon as conditions allow” means as soon as Ministers decide conditions allow — which is no constraint at all.

Where It’s Genuinely Better

Honestly, the only thing I could find in this plan that is mildly positive is there isn’t (yet) any attempt to manufacture social solidarity through emotional appeals. I suspect that’ll change, along with the inevitable propaganda.

The Core Problem

The fundamental lesson not learned from Covid is this: emergency frameworks, once built, are hard to dismantle and easy to expand.

New Zealand’s Covid apparatus — the legislation, the enforcement culture, the public health bureaucracy’s authority — outlasted any reasonable emergency by 12–18 months, and left lasting damage to civil liberties norms, small business viability, and trust in institutions.

This fuel plan creates an analogous apparatus. The ministerial group, the priority bands, the directed distribution powers — these don’t disappear when the crisis ends. They become baseline infrastructure for the next emergency, whatever it is.

Now I want to touch on something related: the steady creep of fascism we’ve seen globally. Convid was a major push in that direction, and I see the potential ideas currently floated by the pointy shoes as yet another step into that cesspool.

The Framing Question

Most commentary will describe this plan as pragmatic emergency management. That framing should be rejected immediately.

Emergency frameworks are not politically neutral. They encode assumptions about who owns resources, who allocates them, who gets protected, and who bears the cost.

When you map the fuel plan’s architecture against economic models honestly, the result is uncomfortable.

Economic Fascism Is the Model

Economic fascism, stripped of its wartime aesthetic, is a specific and coherent system: private ownership is preserved in form, but the state directs resource allocation, sets priorities, and determines winners and losers.

The large private firm and the state apparatus become functionally indistinguishable. Property rights exist on paper while operational autonomy does not.

Let’s map that against the proposed fuel plan…

• Fuel companies retain ownership of their infrastructure and stocks — but government directs who they supply, in what priority, under what conditions.
• Industry “coordination” is the mechanism, meaning large incumbents with government relationships are at the table; small operators are not.
• Crony capitalism is taken to a new level.
• The priority bands — Band A through E — are not market outcomes. They are state-directed allocation dressed up in administrative language.

This is not a market. It is directed private enterprise — which is the operational definition of economic fascism.

The Middle Class Obliteration Mechanism

Remember Covid measures? The middle class got raped — most still don’t even know it … they just realise they’re poorer than before.

The “priority bands” tell you everything. Let’s work through them:

• Band A: Government, defence, courts, corrections, hospitals. The state itself, fully protected. Surprise, surprise.
• Band B: Large logistics operators, supermarket supply chains, international aviation. These are not small businesses. These are large corporates with existing government relationships. Keep in mind Air New Zealand was partly nationalised during Convid. That it has lost money every year since is no surprise and entirely ignored. I expect in this ensuing crisis we’ll see more state ownership take place. Public-private partnerships is how it’ll be sold to the peasants.
• Band C: Public transport, essential infrastructure. Again, largely state-owned or state-contracted entities.
• Band D: “All other commercial and business fuel uses.” This is where the small business owner, the tradesman, the independent courier, the rural contractor sits. They are fourth in line, behind the state and its preferred corporate partners.
• Band E: General retail. The ordinary citizen. Last.

The middle class — small business owners, independent operators, tradespeople, rural producers outside “time-critical” periods — get what’s left after the state and its large corporate partners have filled their stomachs and wallets. This is not an accident of design. It is the design.

The Ideological Laundering

What makes this particularly effective as a system is that it operates entirely within the language of liberal democracy. There is no ostensibly visible expropriation. There is no nationalisation. Property rights are seen to be formally respected. The language is technocratic — “assessment criteria,” “ministerial oversight,” “phase transitions.”

But the functional outcome — state-directed resource allocation favouring large corporates and government entities, with the small business owner and individual citizen at the back of the queue — is indistinguishable from what you would design if you were deliberately trying to hollow out the economic middle.

The Conclusion Nobody Will Print

The fuel plan is not a fascist document. It is not even a particularly radical one by contemporary standards. That is precisely what makes it worth scrutinising carefully.

It is the latest iteration of a governance model that has been quietly consolidating for decades: the state and large capital as co-administrators of the economy, with small business and the individual citizen positioned as residual claimants on whatever resources remain after the primary beneficiaries have been served.

Call it economic fascism, corporate statism, or crony capitalism — the label matters less than the mechanism. And the mechanism is, once again, hiding in plain sight inside a document described as emergency planning.

Editor’s Note: If Chris is right, the fuel plan is not just about energy. It is another warning sign that governments are preparing to manage future crises by controlling access, rationing resources, and deciding who gets protected first. That has serious implications for your money, your freedom, and how you prepare. To better understand the economic, political, and cultural forces now colliding — and what you could do to stay one step ahead — read our special report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time.

Read the special report here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 18:25

Japan Says It Counts Three Consecutive Days Of FX Intervention As One

Earlier today we joked when, after the third intervention attempt by Japan's MOF/BOJ, the yen promptly sold off again as Japanese officials continued to sink billions of dollars into what has become bottomless monetary pit (ignoring for a second the lunacy of spending dollars to strengthen your currency while at the same time printing yet), one which gets bigger every day the BOJ refuses to simply raise interest rates. 

BOJ interventions working out great pic.twitter.com/qsD2f4gTnw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 4, 2026

So perhaps realizing the futility of their now daily interventions, which are taking place precisely at a time that is meant to to take advantage of the low domestic FX liquidity thanks to the Golden Week holiday, a Japanese Finance Ministry official on Monday cited a rule saying that three days of intervention count as a single operation. Even if Japan is on a public holiday, intervention can still be counted if global markets are open, the Finance Ministry person said. Based on this, May 4 would be considered the third consecutive day from April 30, the official added.

Japan was referring to International Monetary Fund fine print, which considers three consecutive business days of exchange-market intervention as a single episode, the official told reporters. The comments came after the yen rose following a reported intervention on Thursday, yet fell after each of the subsequent two interventions on Friday and Monday.

Furthermore, the IMF rules state that up to three such episodes within six months is consistent with a free-floating exchange rate regime, said the official, who accompanied Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to an international conference in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. But if Japan's interventions exceed three such occasions, the IMF tends to classify it as a floating - rather than free-floating - exchange-rate regime.

The comments came as the yen strengthened for three straight days, fueling speculation that authorities intervened in the currency market on consecutive business days, as they did in 2024 (See "Japan's Double Yen Intervention, As Seen Through 10 Charts From Goldman's FX Desk").

Japan intervened on Thursday after the yen weakened to 160.72 against the dollar, before surging to 155 and then resuming its slide. A Bloomberg analysis suggested authorities spent about $34.5 billion to support the currency on Thursday. The likely spent another $20 billion in the ensuing two interventions. 

Katayama reiterated on Monday that the government stands ready to take bold action against speculative currency moves, in line with a US-Japan agreement reached last year. Such action typically refers to currency intervention to support the yen.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 18:00

High-Intensity Beams, Not Whispers: Study Suggests Aliens Would Send Strong Signals

Authored by Rupendra Brahambhatt via Interesting Engineering,

For more than half a century, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence has been built on the assumption that if aliens exist and try to communicate, their signals will be faint, scattered, and easy to miss. 

An alien doll.James Bat Barrera/Pexels

So astronomers have spent decades scanning narrow slices of the radio spectrum, hoping to catch a weak signal buried in cosmic noise. However, a new study suggests something totally different-if an advanced civilization actually wanted to be noticed, it would not broadcast weak, unfocused emissions. 

It would do the opposite - concentrate its power into tightly aimed, high-intensity beams directed at specific targets. 

“Our principal assumption is that a purposely communicative technological civilization will do its technological best to establish communication with other extraterrestrial technological intelligences (ETIs),” Benjamin Zuckerman, study author and an astrophysicist from the University of California, Los Angeles, said.

If this idea is even roughly right, then the silence in our data is not just a lack of evidence. It actually limits how many nearby civilizations could be sending signals we could detect.

From faint radio traces to laser-like beams

The traditional logic behind SETI comes from a simple constraint-interstellar communication is hard. If a civilization has limited power, the most efficient strategy is to broadcast in all directions. 

However, this makes any signal extremely weak by the time it reaches another star. This is why SETI searches have focused on extremely narrow frequency bands.

“Radio search programs have employed very narrow (few Hz) bandwidths (BWs)-because, if an ETI has a given (limited) amount of power to transmit, then the way to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio at the receiving antenna is to use very narrow transmission and reception BWs,” Zuckerman notes.

The difficulty is that no one knows which frequency to listen to, so even decades of work have covered only a tiny fraction of possibilities.

The study challenges this assumption directly. It suggests that aliens capable of interstellar technology would not necessarily choose inefficiency. So instead of broadcasting isotropically like a dim bulb, it could use highly directional transmission systems, more like a laser pointer than a lamp.

Power is not the constraint

Detectability depends less on total power and more on direction-whether Earth happens to lie inside the beam. So, power is no longer the limiting factor. Even a system drawing on the order of 60 megawatts could generate a signal that, if correctly aimed at Earth, would stand out dramatically above cosmic background noise.

For instance, at distances of roughly 200 parsecs, such a directed signal could appear with a strength of around 10¹⁰ Jansky. For comparison, modern radio telescopes can detect signals down to about 1 Jansky. 

In simple words, a well-aimed transmission would not be subtle - it would be obvious in routine astronomical data.

“The most uncertain factor in our communication with a nearby ETI will not be power starvation, but rather the wavelength of transmission; this may be radio, infrared, or optical,” Zuckerman said

This could also mean that we may already have observed such signals without recognizing them. Large-scale sky surveys, conducted over the past century for entirely different scientific purposes, have already scanned vast regions of the sky with sufficient sensitivity. Yet none have reported persistent, anomalous emissions from nearby Sun-like stars.

A quiet solar neighborhood, measured in missed encounters

To turn this idea into a constraint, Zuckerman builds a conservative model of where communicative civilizations might exist. The starting point is simple. Life as we know it requires liquid water, limiting potential habitats to planets in the habitable zones of their stars.

However, technological intelligence takes time to emerge-on Earth, roughly 4.5 billion years. This means only older, stable, Sun-like stars are realistic candidates. Within a sphere of about 200 parsecs, there are roughly 500,000 Sun-like stars. 

Of these, about 200,000 are old enough to potentially host advanced life. Statistical estimates suggest that around 60,000 of them could host habitable planets.

An advanced civilization would not need to search blindly. With sufficiently powerful telescopes, it could identify which of these planets show signs of life, then further narrow its focus to worlds with Earth-like conditions-oceans, continents, and long-term climate stability.

At that point, communication becomes targeted rather than universal. A civilization might direct signals toward only a few hundred carefully selected worlds. From our perspective, detecting such a signal would require monitoring many stars-but if even a single nearby civilization were actively communicating, its signal should stand out in existing data.

Even slow interstellar probes, traveling at just 1% of the speed of light, could reach us in about 10,000 years-an extremely short timescale in cosmic terms.

“The absence of evidence for alien probes in the solar system suggests that no alien civilization has passed within ∼100 lt-yr of Earth during the past few billion years,” Zuckerman notes.

The silence is no longer just silence

Taken together, the absence of both signals and physical visitation leads to a more quantitative conclusion than SETI has traditionally offered. Rather than implying ignorance, the silence becomes a constraint.

It suggests that technologically communicative civilizations are either extremely rare in our region of the galaxy or not actively attempting to communicate in ways we can detect.

According to Zuckerman’s study, the number of civilizations in the Milky Way that are both technologically advanced and actively transmitting may be fewer than 100,000-and possibly closer to 10,000.

However, these numbers come with important boundaries. “The limits to be derived apply only to ETIs that are doing their technological best to establish communication with other technological species in their vicinity,” the study notes.

So they apply only to civilizations using electromagnetic communication and deliberately attempting contact. A species that communicates differently-or chooses not to broadcast at all-would remain invisible to this approach.

SETI programs should change

The implication of this study is not that the search should stop, but that it should change. Instead of focusing narrowly on tiny frequency bands, future surveys may need to examine broader wavelength ranges across large populations of nearby, Sun-like stars. 

The goal would not just be to listen more carefully-but to search more completely. Such efforts could either tighten the limits further or finally reveal a signal that has been sitting in existing data all along.

“Thus, search programs should aim to cover as much of the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum as possible-this is very difficult to do with currently designed radio SETI programs.”

The study is published in The Astrophysical Journal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 17:40

Treasury Boost Quarterly Borrowing Estimate To $189BN: Full Quarterly Refunding Preview

The US Department hiked its estimates for US debt borrowing in the current quarter, citing lower net cash flows.

In a statement published today, and ahead of Wednesday's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, the US Treasury said that it now expects to borrow $189 billion in net debt for the current quarter, up ~$80 billion from the $109 billion it had forecast in February. The estimate assumes a June quarter-end cash balance of $900 billion, the same as the prior forecast. 

According to the Treasury, the borrowing estimate is $80 billion higher than announced in February 2026, primarily due to lower projected net cash flows (i.e., lower tax receipts), partially offset by the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance (the cash balance at the start of the quarter was $893 billion, higher than the $850 billion estimated in February).

Excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $122 billion higher than announced in February.

During the January–March 2026 quarter, Treasury borrowed $577 billion and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $893 billion. In February 2026, Treasury estimated borrowing of $574 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion.The $3 billion in higher borrowing resulted primarily from the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by higher net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $40 billion lower than announced in February. 

The Treasury last month slashed its issuance of Treasury bills in anticipation of a wave of US tax receipts due April 15. It has since started increasing the sizes of its shortest-dated bill auctions, beginning with the six-week tenor

Looking ahead, Treasury expects to borrow $671 billion, targeting a $50 billion increase in end-September cash balance to $950 billion. While it may sound like a lot, the third calendar quarter of the year traditionally has the biggest borrowing needs (in 2025 the US borrowed $1.058 trillion in Q3, $762 billion in 2024, $1.01 trillion in 2023, etc).

Looking beyond the near term, Deutsche Bank's base-case deficit outlook for FY2026 – FY2028 is modestly smaller than projected three months ago, driven by expectations for stronger economic growth. The bank's economists now forecast deficits of:

• FY2026: $2,068bn ($50bn smaller)
• FY2027: $2,137bn ($77bn smaller)
• FY2028: $2,255bn ($230bn smaller)

However, DB's high-estimate scenario, which assumes passage of the Department of Defense budget proposal, implies materially wider deficits versus the base case. Under this scenario, to which DB only assigns 35% odds, deficits would rise by:

• FY2026: ~$200bn
• FY2027: ~$300bn
• FY2028: ~$100bn

Regarding the repayment of IEEPA tariffs, DB assumes total payments of $175bn over the next three years. Given the relatively manageable size, as well as uncertainty around the timing and pace of payments, Treasury will likely address them through increased bill issuance rather bringing forward its coupon increases.

• FY2026: ~$50bn
• FY2027: ~$100bn
• FY2028: ~$25bn  

Today's Treasury announcement of Marketable Borrowing Estimates always precedes the Quarterly Refunding Announcement, which is scheduled for this Wednesday at 8:30am. Here is a preview of what to expect courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

• Treasury might adjust its statement language to soften the forward guidance on coupon auction sizes at this refunding announcement. A possible change would be dropping “at least” while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over “the next several quarters”. Accordingly, DB now expects nominal coupon increases beginning in February 2027.
• For buybacks, DB expects $38bn in liquidity-support operations targeting off-the-run securities. In addition, the bank sees up to $25bn of purchases in 1-month to 2-year for cash management around the June corporate tax date. Treasury will likely evaluate and announce new size increases along with any technical adjustments at the next refunding in August.
• Treasury yields have generally risen, and swap spreads have tightened following four consecutive refunding announcements. Given DB's slight bearish bias on duration and medium-term preference for wider spreads, the German bank recommends establishing shorts ahead of the QRA and using any post-announcement pullback in spreads to re-enter wideners.

Let's take a closer look at each of these, starting with...

Coupon and TIPS financing

In line with Treasury’s gradual and incremental approach to soften its forward guidance around coupon sizes in recent refunding announcements, DB's Steven Zeng expects a further modest adjustment to the statement language in the May refunding.  In February, Treasury stated:

“Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Treasury is monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector. Looking ahead, Treasury continues to evaluate potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles.”

A possible change would be removing “at least” from the statement while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over the “next several quarters”. This would suggest that the shelf life of the current guidance is shortening and that the window for coupon increases is drawing nearer. Accordingly, DB now expects nominal coupon increases to be announced at the February 2027 refunding. Tentative auction size estimates are shown in the table below

For TIPS, DB expects auction sizes to remain unchanged relative to the most recent auction cycle, with $19bn 10-year TIPS reopening in May, $24bn 5-year TIPS reopening in June, and $21bn 10-year TIPS new issue in July. 

Bill issuance

Zeng expects small increases in short-dated bill sizes to be announced next week, leaving net bill supply modestly positive beginning mid-May through early June. The strategist also tentatively expects the 52-week bill auction to rise by $2bn to $52bn. In early June, he projects reductions in bill sizes ahead of the June 15th corporate tax date. Then, a series of larger increases will be implemented in July, leaving bill supply to rise more rapidly during late summer months. The forecast for net bill issuance in the April-June quarter is -$200bn, and in the July-September quarter is +$382bn. Estimates of bill auction sizes and weekly net issuance is shown in the table below. 

For calendar year 2026, DB's current forecast for net bill issuance is $813bn, roughly $50bn higher than the forecast provided three months ago. However, after subtracting Fed purchases and short-end buybacks (which reduce the supply of bill-like coupon securities), the estimated residual supply to private investors is only $176bn. 

Buybacks

Zeng expects $38bn in liquidity-support buybacks targeting off-the-run securities to be announced for the May-July period. Separately, he also expects up to $25bn of purchases in the 1-month to 2-year sector for cash-management purposes to be scheduled around the June corporate tax date. These combined purchases are consistent with the increased operation sizes announced last August, and together they imply roughly $150bn in liquidity-support and $150bn in cash-management operations for the full year. In addition, Treasury could unveil new details on potential buyback enhancements. Treasury previously explored yield-spread bidding and debtswitch operations in the February refunding. However, implementation likely involves time and plenty of advanced notice, so the bank does not expect any actual changes will be announced at this refunding. Treasury will likely evaluate and announce new size increases along with any technical adjustments to buybacks at the next refunding in August. 

Dealer Discussion topics

In the primary dealer questionnaire, Treasury sought views on how changes in bank regulation are affecting demand and liquidity in the Treasury market. It also asked dealers for feedback on changing floating-rate note (FRN) maturity dates, so they fall on a business day. DB's responses to both questions are summarized below.

Bank regulation reform

The easing of eSLR last year likely had a positive effect on Treasury demand and market liquidity, although other market structure changes and monetary policy initiatives (for example, the removal of Wells Fargo’s asset cap and the Fed’s reserve management purchases) make it difficult to observe the effect of eSLR alone.

Broadly speaking, the new eSLR calculation enables dealers to hold more Treasuries on balance sheet, which is supported by the weekly Fed data of dealer net positions which has shown a substantial increase since the rule change. Reduced eSLR constraints also make dealers more likely to engage in swap spread trades directly or facilitate them for clients, which increases demand for Treasuries and resulted in wider swap spreads. On the flip side, these activities lead to crowded positioning and thereby increases the risk of large price changes during volatility shocks. 

Bank capital rules proposed in March could add to demand for Treasuries at the margin, though likely less impactful than the eSLR easing. Banks with freed-up capital can deploy them into Treasuries, although broader credit demand in the economy may ultimately determine whether banks expand into securities or loans. The GSIB surcharge proposal appears particularly beneficial for dealer banks with balance-sheet intensive business models and a low RWA base, which helps increase overall market-making capacity. 

Potential regulatory changes aimed at reducing bank liquidity requirements, such as adjustments to Internal Liquidity Stress Testing (ILST), discount window reform, or adding a liquidity saving mechanism (LSM) to the Fed’s payment system, could allow banks to reallocate reserves into repo or securities, further supporting Treasury demand and market liquidity. 

FRN maturity date

For FRNs that do not mature on a business day, the lack of accrued interest is a major concern for 2a7 investors. As a result, many 2a7 funds sell such securities back to the dealers as the maturity month approaches, which add pressure to dealer balance sheets. Treasury should therefore consider changing stated maturity dates for FRNs, so they always occur on a business day. DB does not see the same need for non-FRN securities, which generally have a broader and more diversified investor base that is less affected by this issue. The primary benefit would be stronger FRN liquidity and reduced need for dealers to warehouse affected securities on their balance sheet. A potential drawback would be increased fragmentation between FRNs and other Treasury securities, potentially resulting in similar but not identical maturity dates leading to pricing distortions in the front end of the curve. 

Market reaction around QRA

In recent quarterly refunding announcements, Treasury yields have generally risen, and swap spreads have narrowed in response. While that reaction is not fully justified, it could reflect investor disappointment on Treasury not delivering a more market-friendly outcome. (expectations for long-end coupon size cuts and more explicit use of buybacks as a WAM management tool are extremely unlikely.) Given that Treasury will continue to loosen its guidance around coupon issuance sizes, the market could initially interpret any change to its statement as a negative. Given DB's modestly bearish outlook on duration, the bank recommends using the refunding announcement to set up for shorts. Conversely, as DB holds a medium-term preference for wider swap spreads, the bank would look to use any post-announcement pullback in spreads as an opportunity to re-enter wideners. 

More in the full DB note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 17:20

All's Not So Quiet On Any Front

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Project Freedom. Cute move! Notice that it’s not Operation Freedom. That would frame it as a military move.

The President is tactically framing this as a humanitarian action. Mr. Trump has advised Congress as of May 1 that hostilities with Iran (Operation Epic Fury) are terminated, at the 60-day limit of the War Powers Resolution. Commercial ships from countries not involved in the Iran / US dispute will now get escorted safely through the Strait of Hormuz by US naval vessels.

(Later amended by CENTCOM, around 9a.m. Monday as being protected by US Navy vessels “in the vicinity.”)

Any attack on these ships by Iran would prompt a forceful response and trigger a re-wind of the clock on the War Powers Resolution (WPR), meaning, another sixty days to conduct military operations, such as the destruction of key bridges and electric power plants promised earlier. Iran’s leadership — whoever that is — thought it could juke Mr. Trump on the 60-day deadline by stalling negotiations while it reorganized its remaining missile launchers. Tactical fail. Incidentally, the Supreme Court has never directly ruled on the WPR’s constitutionality or enforced the 60-day limit.

Also, by the way, the “neutral and innocent bystanders” designation means that oil tankers from Kuwait, the Emirate states, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will be given safe escorts out of the Persian Gulf. That will have two effects: 1) avert the “shutting-in” of their productive oil wells (and the prospective geological damage to the oil fields); and 2) alleviate the price pressure on oil generally with new supply reentering the global oil market.

You can conclude that this “project” will bring new pressure on the “whoevers” running Iran to stop shucking and jiving about how this thing ends — which is them surrendering the 1000-pounds of 60-percent enriched uranium stashed somewhere on their premises. Of course, coming to terms on the nuclear bomb-making issue would allow Iran the possibility of becoming, once more, a normal advanced industrial modern nation, should it also decide to eschew the rule of the mullahs and their psychotic minions in the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). But that remains to be seen.

The other major project underway is on the domestic US scene: the much-needed severe beat-down of the so-called Democratic Party that has become captive to seditionists, overt communists, racketeers, and jihadis.

DOJ prosecutions of color revolutionaries accelerate under Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. James Comey finally has to account for his “86 / 47” seashell prank in a Carolina federal court while a long-dormant case was revived in the Eastern District of Virginia of Comey having used Columbia prof Daniel Richman as a cut-out to leak classified information to the press at the inception of RussiaGate, 2017.

Nobody knows exactly what’s going down in the Southern District of Florida these days (no leaks) where a grand Jury was convened in January to hear evidence in the RussiaGate matter including the years’ long train of organized seditions aimed at bum-rushing Mr. Trump out of the Oval Office in his first term, plus the mounting of various other operations (2020 election-rigging, the J-6 “Fedsurrection,” and maliciously fake serial prosecutions) aimed at stuffing him in prison at the end of that term.

All this is being treated as a “grand conspiracy” involving scores of agency officials and lawfare ninjas operating in the penumbra at the edge of government.

Do not be surprised when rafts of indictments come out of the Fort Pierce, Florida, grand jury, probably in bunches, each bunch dedicated to a particular phase or operation.

Characters such as former President Barack Obama, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Senator Adam Schiff (D-CS), CIA-agent Eric Ciaramella, legal tacticians Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, and Mary McCord, Andrew Weissmann, crooked member of the Senate Intel Committee Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), and former CIA Directors Brennan with former DNI James Clapper, were involved in multiple seditions and possible treasons. Supporting actors such as the tag-team of Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, former Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein, former AG Merrick Garland, former Deputy AG Lisa Monaco, former Sec’y of State Hillary Clinton, “Joe Biden” autopen operators Jake Sullivan, Mike Donlon, Steve Richetti, Anita Dunn, Neera Tanden, former Sec’y of State Antony Blinken, and Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice, are probably in the mix somewhere, too.

The trials that come out of all this action will be mighty interesting shows. What they will show is what an absolutely criminal organization the Democratic Party became sometime during Barack Obama’s second term, and how each criminal act since then has provoked further criminal acts in the attempt to cover-up the train of crime.

On top of that, you see the first glimmers of action against the villains behind the Covid-19 operation, which was used as an additional instrument of sedition to eject President Trump from office with mail-in ballot fraud.

That was the eventual outcome anyway, though it appears that Anthony Fauci’s NIAID agency was subcontracting out the development of this disease at least a decade earlier. And now, Dr. Fauci’s chief advisor, David Morens, is indicted on extremely serious charges including conspiracy against the United States, destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in federal investigations (multiple counts), and concealment, removal, or mutilation of records (multiple counts).

This is serious business. It is likely to lead to Dr. Fauci, Dr. Deborah Birx, and other public health officials who ran a dastardly number on the citizens of this land. Be advised: the autopen pardons of “Joe Biden” will be tested in court.

While all this goes on in the months ahead, don’t underestimate what is liable to emerge from the ongoing FBI investigations into massive social service and health service fraud by the Democratic Party in its Blue State strongholds.

It is going to get very ugly. A governor or two (or three, or more) could be slammed with indictments for colluding to conceal vast episodes of organized grift.

All that. . . and then the SCOTUS decision striking down Congressional redistricting along racial lines — probably leading to the loss of up to ten Democratic seats in the House later this year.

Ouch! That one is really going to sting.

So, if you happen to believe that the concluding scenes of Operation Epic Fury in Iran will somehow work to advantage the Democratic party to sweep the midterm elections, better rethink your strategery (as George W. Bush liked to style the art of political warfare).

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 16:20

Welfare Enrollment Drops Sharply Following New Federal Work Requirements

Via American Greatness,

Enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has declined significantly since new federal work requirements took effect in mid-2025, with millions fewer Americans receiving benefits, according to newly reported federal data.

The number of people enrolled in SNAP has fallen by roughly 3.5 million since July 2025, dropping from an average of 42.1 million participants in the prior fiscal year to about 38.5 million as of January 2026, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal.

The decline follows the implementation of expanded eligibility rules included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” signed into law by Donald Trump on July 4, 2025.

The legislation broadened existing work requirements for able-bodied adults, mandating that individuals between the ages of 18 and 64 without young dependents participate in at least 80 hours per month of work, volunteering, or government-run programs.

Previously, the requirements applied to a narrower age group and included different criteria for dependents, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees SNAP. Officials told The Wall Street Journal that the recent changes represent the most sweeping adjustments to the program in decades.

Under the updated policy, eligibility restrictions have also tightened for some categories of legal immigrants. Federal law has long barred undocumented immigrants from receiving SNAP benefits.

Data compiled by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities shows that nearly every state has experienced a decline since the policy took effect.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Kentucky are exceptions, each reporting modest increases.

Meanwhile, SNAP participation in Guam has risen sharply, while Puerto Rico operates under a separate nutrition assistance program.

Several states, including Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee, have reported double-digit percentage declines. In response, some state officials have begun efforts to connect affected residents with employment and volunteer opportunities to help them meet the new requirements.

Arizona has seen the steepest drop, with participation falling by more than half.

According to state data, more than 424,000 fewer residents are receiving benefits, including approximately 181,000 children. State officials attributed much of the decline to the rapid implementation of the new federal rules.

“The expanded work requirements were primarily responsible for the drop,” Brett Bezio, a spokesman for Arizona’s Department of Economic Security, told The Wall Street Journal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 15:00