Individual Economists

Ferrari Vs Tesla: $640K Luce EV Loses Key Speed And Range Battles To Model S Plaid

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Ferrari Vs Tesla: $640K Luce EV Loses Key Speed And Range Battles To Model S Plaid

Authored by Aamir Khollam via Interesting Engineering,

Ferrari's upcoming electric grand tourer, the Luce, has already sparked intense debate online. Much of that attention centers on its unconventional styling. Yet beyond the design discussion, the numbers reveal an interesting comparison against one of the EV market's most established performance sedans: the Tesla Model S Plaid.

The matchup is far from equal in price or positioning. Ferrari plans to launch the Luce at roughly $640,000, while Tesla's Model S Plaid starts near $95,000. Ferrari also intends to keep production limited, preserving the exclusivity tied to the brand. Tesla, meanwhile, sells the Plaid in far greater numbers worldwide.

Still, both vehicles target buyers seeking extreme electric performance, making the comparison difficult to ignore.

Performance Numbers Compared

On paper, Ferrari takes a narrow lead in outright power. The Luce produces 1,050 horsepower from four electric motors, while the Model S Plaid delivers 1,020 horsepower through a tri-motor setup.

Ferrari's approach goes beyond raw output. Each wheel receives its own dedicated motor, allowing advanced torque vectoring and sharper handling control. Ferrari engineers claim the setup will preserve the brand's traditional driving feel despite the shift to an electric platform.

Tesla counters with proven straight-line performance. The Model S Plaid still launches harder, reaching 60 mph in under two seconds. Ferrari estimates the Luce will hit the same mark in roughly 2.4 seconds. Tesla also claims a higher top speed, touching 200 mph compared to Ferrari's projected 193 mph.

Battery And Charging Edge

Ferrari equips the Luce with a larger 122 kWh battery pack. Tesla's Plaid uses a battery closer to 100 kWh. The Luce also benefits from an 800-volt electrical architecture capable of supporting up to 350 kW DC fast charging.

That charging advantage could reduce downtime during long-distance travel, assuming drivers access compatible high-speed chargers. Tesla's current V3 Supercharger network peaks at around 250 kW.

Despite the smaller battery, Tesla still holds the range advantage. The Model S Plaid carries an estimated range of about 348 miles, while Ferrari targets roughly 280 miles for the Luce. The Ferrari's additional weight likely contributes to the gap. Early figures place the Luce near 4,982 pounds.

Tesla also maintains an advantage in software maturity. The Model S Plaid includes Tesla's Full Self-Driving suite, although the system still requires driver supervision. Ferrari has not introduced a comparable autonomous driving package for the Luce.

Exclusivity Versus Accessibility

The massive price difference ultimately shapes the entire comparison. Buyers could purchase several Model S Plaids for the cost of a single Ferrari Luce.

Yet Ferrari is not chasing the same customer base as Tesla. The Luce competes as much with ultra-luxury brands like Rolls-Royce and Bentley as it does with mainstream performance EVs.

The Luce also represents a major milestone for Ferrari's future. Designed with input from Jony Ive and Marc Newson, the EV signals Ferrari's full entry into the electric era.

Even so, the comparison highlights Tesla's lasting influence on the segment. Years after launch, the Model S Plaid remains the benchmark many high-performance EVs still chase.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 11:40

Clinton-Appointed Judge Temporarily Blocks Trump's $1.776 Billion Anti-Weaponization Fund

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Clinton-Appointed Judge Temporarily Blocks Trump's $1.776 Billion Anti-Weaponization Fund

A federal judge in Virginia has temporarily blocked the Trump administration's $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund," freezing any transfers, claims processing, or disbursements while legal challenges proceed.

The brief order from U.S. District Judge Leonie M. Brinkema of the Eastern District of Virginia...

...says the Trump administration cannot take any action "pursuant to the creation or operation of the Anti-Weaponization Fund, which includes the transferring of money to the Fund; the consideration of any claims submitted to the Fund; and the disbursing of any funds from the Fund."

The fund, operated through the Justice Department, was created as part of a settlement involving President Trump, his family, and the Trump Organization.

Under the settlement framework, individuals claiming to have been victims of politically motivated prosecutions or government abuse would be able to seek compensation, including the 1,500 Jan. 6 defendants whom Trump pardoned.

Congressional Democrats have been widely opposed to the $1.776 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund because they say it will serve as a massive "slush fund" for Trump allies.

Brinkema said the order was needed to prevent money from being "irreversibly disbursed" before pending motions are resolved. The fund cannot formally begin distributing money until five commissioners are selected.

She set a hearing for June 12 to hear arguments over whether she should issue a more lasting pause.

Meanwhile, unhinged and left-wing California Gov. Gavin Newsom said his administration will impose 100% tax on any resident receiving these funds. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 11:00

"The Real Part Of This Economy Is Not Doing Well": Ed Dowd Warns 'Just Wait 'Til The AI Bubble Bursts'

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"The Real Part Of This Economy Is Not Doing Well": Ed Dowd Warns 'Just Wait 'Til The AI Bubble Bursts'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the beginning of April that the economy was already rolling over. 

He said “Private Credit Problems are Ending the Party.”  Just 10 days ago, BlackRock and other firms with so-called private credit are  locking up investors’ cash because of a wave of redemptions.  Dowd predicted this, and the sagging economy is not going to be getting any better anytime soon. 

If you thought private credit was a drag on the economy, then the Iran war is going to be a boat anchor.  Dowd says:

“The longer this situation persists, the likelihood of oil drifting higher is going to happen.

 We have two scenarios, and one is oil peaks out at $125, and this gets resolved by May.  Inflation would peak around 5%...

We are at the point now, if this does not get resolved soon, oil prices could continue to drift higher...

We have a second scenario where we get $200 to $250 a barrel oil, which was our worst-case scenario. 

If that happens, inflation will peak out at around 11% by our models...”

Martin Armstrong said two weeks ago that gasoline prices could go to $9 a gallon.  Dowd agrees with Armstrong and says you might get $10 a gallon gas in a worst-case scenario.  Dowd adds:

“I see oil going a lot higher, which will cause a tremendous amount of demand destruction and a recession that I think is coming anyway. 

It will be even deeper than we have forecasted. 

It will cause layoffs and economic growth to go into recessionary territory.  The prices of commodities will collapse as deflation sets in.  

The solution to high commodity prices is high commodity prices because it creates demand destruction.”

So, what’s the Fed going to do?  Dowd thinks,

“The Fed could raise rates to combat the headline inflation.  My best guess is they do nothing at the June FOMC meeting. 

They are certainly not going to cut until they see the economic growth slowing...

Depending on this war . . . the real part of this economy, housing, is not doing well and rolling over. 

We are just waiting on the AI bubble to finally burst . . . we are close to that topping out soon.”

Dowd is still bullish on gold and silver long term, but short term, it may get sold off to raise cash like Turkey just did. 

Silver will have stronger headwinds than gold given the deflation that is coming. 

Dowd does not see China’s economic woes getting any better.  Dowd predicted China’s economic problems months ago, and Wall Street is just now catching up on the bad news.  Dowd says,

“China had 8% negative growth in the first quarter.”

Dowd goes into a deep dive on the severe economic problems facing China. 

Dowd points out big problems in housing and says it’s cheaper to rent a house than to own one. 

Dowd also predicts the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates in early 2027 because the deflation will be so severe.

In closing, Dowd says, “This is the normal credit cycle..."

"  The credit cycle is old and aging, and we are seeing the credit cycle get chinks in the armor with the private credit situation, which is effectively frozen.  This was credit growth that happened in 2024 and 2025.”

There is much more in the 44-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why we are seeing big trouble for the US economy.   Dowd predicted this was coming in January with his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:40

"False": Musk Denies Bloomberg Report About SpaceX IPO Valuation Drop

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"False": Musk Denies Bloomberg Report About SpaceX IPO Valuation Drop

Summary:

  • Musk says the Bloomberg report is "false" 

  • SpaceX Reportedly Lowers IPO Valuation Target, as per Bloomberg

Musk Rejects Bloomberg Report 

Yet again, corporate media is pushing fake news against Elon Musk.

This time, Musk called a Bloomberg report that cited unnamed sources and claimed SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation target "false." 

SpaceX Reportedly Lowers IPO Valuation Target 

SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its upcoming initial public offering, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This is below an earlier goal of more than $2 trillion.

In practice, the initial IPO valuation target is a marketing range, not a final number. Therefore, any valuation shifts ahead of the trading day would not be unusual. This suggests advisers are calibrating the deal to what investors are willing to absorb, especially given the massive proposed raise of up to $75 billion.

The target is settling lower after consultations with advisers and investors, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn't public.

Details of an IPO, such as size and valuation, are typically adjusted ahead of pricing based on feedback from stakeholders, the people said.

SpaceX is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, people familiar with the matter have said, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time. -BBG

The May 21 SpaceX S-1 filing revealed that Elon Musk's space company is much more than a reusable-rocket and satellite-internet company. It now encompasses AI services, infrastructure, orbital data centers, and a claimed $28.5 trillion total addressable market.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the IPO is set to price on June 11, with a June 12 debut. The stock is expected to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker "SPCX."

Polymarket bets show a 90% chance that SpaceX's market capitalization will be $1.8 trillion on the IPO date.

//--> //--> SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Yes 90% · No 10%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

There was speculation earlier this week of a SpaceX-Tesla merger in 2027. Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives has those odds at 80%.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:07

Kicking The Can On A Ceasefire "Which Does Not Solve Anything"

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Kicking The Can On A Ceasefire "Which Does Not Solve Anything"

Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Both Bloomberg and Axios report that the US and Iran have reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days as they engage in further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. However, Tasnim reported that the text of the memorandum of understanding had not been finalized.

US Vice President Vance said that the two sides are still “going back and forth on a couple of language points,” which reportedly includes the wording on Iran’s nuclear capacity. But the Vice President said that Iran appears to be negotiating in good faith, paving the way for Trump’s approval of the ceasefire extension.

While negotiators are trying to dot the i’s and cross the t’s of the memorandum, President Trump has reportedly asked for a couple of days to think about the final deal.

Energy prices fell further on the news that a deal could –again– be imminent, after the US administration made similar claims last week. Brent futures are currently down about 10% on the week. That, in turn, is lifting optimism in other markets. Yields dropped, and green figures returned on stock exchanges.

Admittedly, a 60-day extension would lessen some of the near-term tail risks – although both sides have accused each other of violating the current ceasefire. Just the past day, Kuwait intercepted a missile that Iran had fired at a US base, causing the US to respond with new “defensive strikes” on Iran.

More importantly, a ceasefire does not solve anything, unless the US and Iran manage to agree on the key sticking points during that extended ceasefire.

Treasury Secretary Bessent reminded everyone that Trump’s three red lines are unchanged: Hormuz must reopen, Tehran must end its nuclear programme, and Iran must transfer its highly enriched uranium. As we noted earlier this week, a nuclear deal still seems highly unlikely at this juncture.

Likewise, Iran still believes that it can effectively control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, together with Oman, allowing it to put down toll booths along the strait. Even though this would allow paying ships to cross, that’s not a “reopening” in Trump’s view.

The US imposed sanctions on the Hormuz Strait Shipping Authority, which is supposed to collect the toll. And Bessent warned that “Oman, in particular, should know that the ⁠U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved –directly or indirectly– in ⁠facilitating tolls for the Strait.” President Trump even threatened to “blow them up” if Oman works with Iran to control shipping through Hormuz.

It still seems unlikely that the key sticking points will be resolved soon. On that basis, we have shifted our baseline for Hormuz to remain closed for up to three more months before we see a crisis resolution. Only if either the US or Iran blinks regarding the nuclear programme, could we see a quicker end to the conflict.

Meanwhile, tensions are rising in other parts of the globe too. Talks between the US and Cuba appear to have stalled, while Cuba and China discussed agricultural cooperation, food shipments, and political support. This increases the risk that the US may resort to military aggression. China, meanwhile, claims that a Dutch frigate entered their waters – which the Netherlands disputed; and a Canadian frigate transited the Taiwan Strait, defying Chinese warnings not to do so.

And, as we’ve noted before, even if the US-Iran conflict is resolved sooner, it would still take a substantial amount of time before energy flows return to some form of normalcy. So, some further inflationary pressure is inevitable.

Policymakers are also starting to realize this. The ECB’s Schnabel noted recently that “even if the war ended today, a lot of damage has already been done to energy infrastructure and global supply chains.” She adds that higher costs will probably trickle through global supply chains and into higher goods prices.

The accounts of the April ECB meeting suggest that Schnabel is not the only policymaker who’s concerned about the size and the persistence of the inflation shock. It therefore looks like a June hike is all but a done deal. According to the minutes, some policymakers said that the decision to hold or hike was already a “close call” for them in April. This group essentially indicated that they would not have opposed a rate hike last month, if this had been proposed as the path forward.

Today’s inflation data are further cementing the case for a rate hike. French HICP inflation rose to 2.8% y/y, while Spanish HICP inflation edged up to 3.6%. Meanwhile, business surveys indicate that companies expect to raise selling prices further – although selling price expectations eased a bit in May, compared to the steep increases in the two months prior.

And, worryingly, consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations have started to pick up alongside the rise in current inflation rates. As Schnabel pointed out, these shifts in consumer expectations could be a first indication that expectations are de-anchoring.

However, we still believe that the current backdrop is less conducive to broader and protracted inflationary pressures than 2021-2022. Yesterday’s business confidence survey indicated that employment expectations continue to score below the long-term average. The labor hoarding index remains above its long-term average, but businesses appear to hoard less labor than before.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 10:00

Russia Warns US Against Sending Thousands More Troops Near Its Borders: Pushing Toward 'Suicidal Conflict'

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Russia Warns US Against Sending Thousands More Troops Near Its Borders: Pushing Toward 'Suicidal Conflict'

Russia is deeply alarmed about US plans to deploy thousands of additional troops to NATO's eastern flank member Poland, slamming reports out of Washington as unacceptable and portending an escalation in the Ukraine war.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a press briefing on Thursday that sending additional American soldiers to Poland "would result in escalation of tension across Europe" and that Moscow would be forced to take "retaliatory measures".

Getty Images

Given that some 5,000 troops are being moved there from Germany, she did acknowledge that reducing America's troop presense in Europe would overall be "rational, justified, and long-overdue" step toward stabilizing what she called an "imbalanced" security situation created by NATO and Western policies.

Weeks ago, the White House began threatening a significant and historic force reduction from Germany, following Berlin officials' repeat criticisms of the US-Israeli war against Iran. This was initially presented in media reports as part of a broader drawdown from Europe, but now it appears US forces are just being shifted around, and with 5,000 to be placed closer to Russia.

But these thousands more troops in Poland could induce Russia to respond with "military-technical measures." Zakharova in perhaps the most provocative part of her remarks warned that NATO is pushing the continent toward a "suicidal" conflict.

In total, some 10,000 US service members are stationed in Poland, on a regular rotation, and the new Washington deployment would see thousands more added to this - from among the 80,000 deployed across Europe.

Poland shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad Region, setting off further concerns about targeting and drone activity: 

The deployment of additional US military forces to Poland could lead to a "qualitative escalation" of tensions between Russia and the West and force Moscow to take retaliatory measures, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.

Zakharova also said that the number of drone attacks on Russian territory from the direction of Europe and Northern European states was increasing.

Moscow has expressed concern that Ukrainian drones could be using Baltic or other countries' airspace to launch attacks on targets inside Russia, an assertion rejected by Kyiv and the three Baltic countries.

Warsaw has hit back, with Foreign minister Maciej Wewiór having told the Polish news agency PAP that allied troops in Poland were "a necessary reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank" as a result of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and given the Kremlin's "escalatory rhetoric" towards the alliance.

Wiki Commons

Wewiór additionally said the "real source of escalation and tensions in Europe" remains Moscow's "unlawful and aggressive military actions" – and not legitimate measures taken by NATO countries to defend their populations and borders.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 09:40

Futures Hit Another Record High After Pricing In Same "Iran Deal" Every Day For The Past Month

Zero Hedge -

Futures Hit Another Record High After Pricing In Same "Iran Deal" Every Day For The Past Month

US equity futures are higher, continuing their slow motion-gamma squeeze into record territory, as traders waited to see whether America and Iran could finally get the peace deal they have already priced in every single day for the past month. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, and poised to rise for the ninth consecutive week, the best streak since 2023; Nasdaq futs also have modest gains. In the pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower with AMZN (-1.0%), TSLA (-0.7%), AAPL (-0.6%) the laggards even as evidence of relentless demand for AI-infrastructure stocks was on display as Dell jumped 37% after the legacy computer maker gave a sales outlook that far surpassed analysts’ estimates, fueled by servers designed to run AI workloads. MSCI All Country World Index on track for a second monthly gain, both European and Asian markets were higher overnight. Bond yields are flat at 4.44% and the USD remains unchanged. WTI crude fell $1.46 to $87.44, while Brent traded around $92; base metals are all higher; gold added 0.7%. Economic data slate includes April advance goods trade balance and retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am) and May MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers). Fed speaker slate includes Daly (7:45am, 12:40pm), Bowman (9:10am) and Paulson (9:15am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia +0.5%, Tesla -0.4%, Apple -0.5%, Meta -0.5%, Amazon -0.7%, Alphabet -0.8%)

  • American Eagle shares (AEO) tumbled 11% after the clothing retailer reported total comparable sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Autodesk’s (ADSK) falls 7% after its proposed acquisition of MaintainX has been tentatively welcomed by analysts, who see the deal as expensive but representing a strong strategic move.
  • Dell Technologies shares (DELL) surge 35% after the Texas-based company raised both its full year revenue and adjusted EPS outlooks on strong demand for its AI-powering servers.
  • Elastic (ESTC) is down 5.4% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted first-quarter earnings that was weaker than expected.
  • Gap (GAP) shares fell 15% after the clothing retailer reported its latest earnings with poor performance by the company’s Old Navy brand that weighed on the full-year outlook in an otherwise mixed report.
  • Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is up 5% after the doughnut chain’s Director Bernardo Hees acquired $768,718 of stock, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • NetApp (NTAP) rallies 19% after the data storage provider reported its latest earnings with a strong print from the company, showing strong growth.
  • Nextpower Inc. shares (NXT) rise 11% after it agreed to buy Prevalon Energy, a joint venture between Mitsubishi Power Americas and EES, for up to $365 million in cash and stock.
  • PagerDuty shares (PD) are up 13% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
  • SentinelOne shares (S) fall 12% after the software company gave a second-quarter revenue forecast that was weaker than expected and announced it would reduce its full-time employees by 8%.
  • UiPath shares (PATH) are down 4.6% after the software company reported first-quarter results that analysts are generally positive on, although they want to see greater confirmation of durable growth in annualized recurring revenue.
  • Viasat (VSAT) falls 7.2% after the wireless communications firm’s fourth-quarter earnings undershot analysts’ expectations.

In other news, space-related stocks gave back some recent gains after Elon Musk’s SpaceX cut its valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter. AST SpaceMobile Inc. fell 13%, while Rocket Lab Corp. slipped 5.3%. APfizer and Innovent Biologics signed a global agreement to develop cancer drugs, including a $650 million upfront payment and up to $9.85 billion in potential milestones. Costco reported higher-than-expected profit in the latest quarter, showing the club chain continues to gain ground among cautious US shoppers. 

A preliminary deal between Washington and Tehran to extend a ceasefire by 60 days is awaiting signoff from President Donald Trump. Vice President JD Vance told reporters Thursday that the parties are “going back and forth on a couple of language points,” including issues relating to Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The prospect of a peace deal - the same peace deal the market has priced in every day since April - in the Middle East is easing pressure on oil prices and raising conviction that markets’ worst inflation fears wouldn’t come to pass, even as oil flows remain blocked and inventories are getting drained at a record pace. That confidence comes against a backdrop of an unprecedented artificial intelligence-led rally that has seen US-listed chipmakers surge nearly 70% since the start of April. Dell’s mic-dropping earnings print is being seen as evidence of “the latest perceived dinosaur tech to rediscover a new lease of life as an AI powerhouse, following in the footsteps of Intel, Cisco, Nokia, and Lenovo,” notes Emmanuel Valavanis of Forte Securities. 

“Brent below $90 by the end of next week seems at our reach,” wrote Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “It would create a rather supportive environment should it happen, clearly as oil prices have been the source of most macro fears this year.”

With energy prices coming off the boil, investors have begun to dial back expectations of a stagflationary shock for the global economy. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it’s too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise, remarks that validated a six-day run of gains in Treasuries through Thursday.

“If a deal is agreed upon, we should see another leg higher in risky assets and lower in rates,” noted Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “Positioning suggests that the rates market should see a greater reaction than equities.”

The fact that the market has no clear view on the extent of the consequences of the conflict is a reason for caution, said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “Due to past disappointments, euphoria remains rather subdued,” he said. “Short-term price fluctuations are not yet sufficient to provide lasting stability to oil-dependent stocks.”

Info Tech has led sector gains month-to-date on the back of the AI narrative backed by strong earnings, supportive valuations and momentum. BI quantitative strategists note that since the launch of the Bloomberg AI Index in April 2015, a monthly rebalanced portfolio of high-momentum AI names has delivered a remarkable 41.02% annualized return on 28.69% volatility, equating to a Sharpe ratio of 1.43.

“The market is looking for an excuse to trend higher,” Pooja Malik, partner at Nipun Capital, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Still, “while the AI rally, both from a fundamental and a sentiment perspective, has a huge amount of momentum, the inflation risk is real. If that results in interest rate hikes, that itself could act as a big break on this whole AI tech positive momentum,” she added.

Tech is likely to remain in the headlines over the weekend and into next week, with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang leading a parade of AI computing leaders in Taiwan for Asia’s biggest technology showcase, Computex. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% to erase losses for the week.  Travel and leisure shares are among the biggest gainers, as Brent crude fell to $93 per barrel.  Thematically, Luxury, Ceasefire, Software and Momentum Short are among the top performing baskets. Germany Unemployment Rate printed 6.3% vs, 6.4% survey and 6.4% prior. German regional CPI released this morning were mostly softer than last month. May Tokyo CPI prints 1.4% vs. 1.6% survey vs. 1.5% prior. Here are the top movers:

  • Ocado shares jump as much as 14% as the online food retailer enters a partnership with Asda to develop the supermarket’s online business across the UK with the Ocado Smart Platform
  • CTS Eventim shares rise as much as 13%, the most since November 2020, after the events firm reported first-quarter sales and Ebitda that both beat consensus estimates
  • Vivendi shares rise as much as 8.4% after a press report strengthened the case of minority shareholders seeking a buyout from Bollore SE, CIC CIB argues in a note
  • BAM Groep shares rise as much as 17% to their highest level since 2008, after Oddo BHF double upgraded the stock to outperform on better-than-expected UK profitability and lower risks from legacy projects
  • Ceres Power gains as much as 4.9% after Berenberg lifted its price target on the stock, saying the clean-energy technology developer is a beneficiary of the AI and data center boom
  • Dottikon Es shares fall as much as 20%, the most on record, after results from the Swiss pharmaceutical ingredients firm that Zuercher Kantonalbank called disappointing at all levels except for cash flows
  • Wickes and B&M European shares fall as much as 6.6% and 3.0% respectively as Deutsche Numis analysts cut their recommendation on both to sell on concern about the effect of hotter inflation on lower income consumers and big ticket spending

Earlier in the session, Asian equities rebounded as a tentative US-Iran deal to extend their ceasefire revived appetite for risk assets and caused oil prices to drop. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.1%, with most stock benchmarks in the region in the green. South Korea’s Kospi gauge led the pack with a gain of 3.6%. A rally in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has forced some funds bound by a 10% single-stock cap rule to to reshuffle their portfolios. Meanwhile, Asian computer-related stocks advanced after Dell shares soared in extended trading on raised guidance due to strong demand for its AI-powering servers.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up by 0.1% with New Zealand dollar outperforming after central bank comments.

In rates, treasuries narrowly mixed, keeping yields within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels, with oil at a six-week low after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend a ceasefire by 60 days. US 10-year yield near 4.44% as European bond yields edging lower in spite of hotter inflation readings in France, Spain and Italy, with Germany the only outlier. US curve spreads are marginally wider, also within a basis point of Thursday’s close. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Almost $7 billion was priced Thursday, taking weekly supply over $40 billion. Borrowers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.1 times covered. Early dealer forecasts for June US high-grade supply are in the $130 billion-$135 billion range, versus $109 billion in June 2025. Focal points of US session includes several Fed speakers and potential for buying tied to month-end index rebalancing. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 1.9% on optimism the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. Gold prices moving higher and back above $4,500/oz.

Economic data slate includes April advance goods trade balance and retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am) and May MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers). Fed speaker slate includes Daly (7:45am, 12:40pm), Bowman (9:10am) and Paulson (9:15am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • Iran and US reach deal to extend ceasefire, pending Trump's approval: RTRS
  • Bond market volatility is boosting the case for Japan's central bank to pause the unwinding of its massive debt holdings next fiscal year, which would give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi some relief amid growing investor concerns about her spending plans. RTRS
  • China is targeting billions held offshore in the biggest crackdown in decades, with ramifications for the financial advisers and funds that help manage money overseas. BBG
  • Samsung Electronics Co. has begun shipping samples of the industry’s most advanced memory to customers, taking an early lead in a race to supply the essential components for AI accelerators made by the likes of Nvidia Corp. BBG
  • Apollo Global Management Inc. and Blackstone Inc. are working to bring additional investors into a roughly $36 billion debt financing deal to help Anthropic PBC build out its AI infrastructure. BBG
  • France’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, with households reining in spending as consumer confidence slid. BBG
  • Tokyo’s key inflation gauge cooled to the slowest pace in four years, with the consumer price index excluding fresh food rising 1.3% in May from a year earlier. BBG
  • Inflation in France, Italy and Spain jumped in May, reinforcing the case for the ECB to raise interest rates in June. BBG
  • Americans are saving less as the everyday cost of living rises and wages struggle to keep up. The personal savings rate — defined as the share of income Americans have after taxes and expenses — hit 2.6% in April, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday. That’s down from 3.2% in March, and 5.8% a year prior. CNBC
  • Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth has warned oil prices are likely to rise over the next two months as crude inventories continue to decline due to the Iran war. FT
  • US State Department designates Brazilian criminal organisations Comando Vermelho and PCC as specially designated global terrorists, effective June 5th.
  • Heading into month-end, Goldman estimates $14 billion of US equities to sell from US pensions given the moves in equities and bonds. This expiry is the 12th largest non-quarterly sell estimate on record (since 2000). 

Iran War

  • Many points regarding the Iranian nuclear file have been resolved; Iran has agreed to international oversight of its nuclear facilities to prevent their dismantling, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Iran wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to America.
  • Chairman of the Iranian National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament said there are no plans to transfer enriched uranium out of the country, Asharq reported.
  • Iran Deputy for Foreign Policy and International Security Ali Baqeri held separate meetings in Moscow with the Foreign Policy Advisor to Brazil's President and the Secretary General of Egypt's National Security Council.
  • IRGC Commander said Iran forces are ready to act on Supreme Leader's order and enemies should not make mistakes as they will get themselves and others into trouble.
  • Iran military source said US drone was intercepted near Bushehr in southern Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
  • US Vice President Vance said that US President Trump is not yet ready to endorse the Iran agreement, while Vance noted that US and Iran made a lot of progress towards a ceasefire deal, according to AFP. Vance said US and Iran are at odds on uranium enrichment and stockpiles, according to SNN.
  • White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller stating in an interview with Fox News that US President Trump is directly involved in negotiations with Iran.
  • US President Trump said we completely sank the Iranian Navy and destroyed their air force, did not target all of Iran’s military leadership so that what happened in Iraq would not be repeated.
  • US military said Iran's state TV claim that Iranian forces downed a US aircraft near Bushehr is false and no US aircraft was shot down by Iran, with all US air assets are accounted for.
  • US VP Vance said US and Iran are exchanging proposals regarding some drafting points including issue of enrichment, adds time is still early to know when an agreement with Iran will be reached and if it will happen at all.
  • US Treasury imposes fresh sanctions targeting Iran's military oil sales, according to Reuters. IRNA reported US sanctions 25 individuals, firms and vessels over Iran oil.
  • US President Trump said that US has all the cards, Iran has been defeated militarily, according to a Fox interview.
  • Al Hadath posted Iranian television reported “the downing of an American fighter jet” in the vicinity of Bushehr, with no American confirmations.
  • US official denies what Iranian TV announced about downing any American plane near Bushehr, according to Al Hadath.
  • Israel's Channel 12, citing military sources, said "The army recommends to the political leadership intensifying the air and ground strikes in Lebanon".

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks headed into month-end on the front foot as the region took impetus from the gains stateside, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted fresh record highs amid reports of a tentative agreement regarding an MOU for a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension and to launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme, although it still needs approval from US President Trump, while Iranian sources also pushed back and stated it was not finalised. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources industries, while the energy and defensive sectors were at the other end of the spectrum as geopolitics and oil moves remained the main catalyst for price action. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 66,000 level amid lower oil prices and following a slew of data, including softer Tokyo CPI, lower Unemployment, and better-than-expected industrial output & retail sales. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the mainland lagged and with headwinds from earnings, as automakers were pressured following weak results from XPeng, while sentiment was also not helped by trade frictions, with the EU set to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he is extremely concerned about speculative moves in the FX market; won't comment on FX levels and intervention. Government stance is to always take appropriate FX action.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said we'll consider cost risk balance in reference to issuing bonds and to engage in dialogue with market on bond management, while she declines comment on future bond maturities at this time. said:. It's important to have broad bond investor base. Will continue appropriate debt management policies.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan can take decisive action on FX volatility, while she declined to comment on whether intervention has taken place or not.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are firmer across the board, attempting to rebound from recent losses and as markets digest reports that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement to extend the ceasefire. (See the commodities section for details.) From an index standpoint, the CAC 40 (+1%) outperforms in Europe whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) lags vs peers, given its exposure to energy names. European sectors hold a positive bias. The cyclical industries (Consumer Products / Travel & Leisure / Autos) top the sectoral list, whilst the likes of Energy and Utilities hold towards the bottom of the pile. The Energy sector, unsurprisingly, has been dragged down by losses across the underlying oil complex.

Top European News

  • Communications between former UK Minister Wes Streeting (potential PM candidate) and Peter Mandelson will be published next week, The Sun reported.

FX

  • G10s are mixed against the Dollar. Kiwi leads after hawkish RBNZ speak overnight after the hawkish-leaning RBNZ hold early in the week, while Sterling lags after Cable dipped below its 200DMA.
  • The Greenback is a touch firmer in a rebound from hefty losses on Thursday, when the DXY closed 0.6% from highs. (See Commodities on the headline feed). In short, a deal seems near, but uncertainty remains over whether Trump will sign off on the proposal and whether Tehran will formally endorse the reported terms. Aside from US-Iran, eyes are also on tensions between NATO’s Romania and Russia after a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati. DXY is firmer by 0.2% within 98.95-99.19 parameters.
  • French, Spanish and German state inflation imply cooler German nationwide (due 13:00 BST), and EZ (due Tuesday) prints. French GDP: Final measures softer than expected. Q1 rate was revised into contraction from flat, yearly basis was also revised a touch lower. French HICP: Softer than expected and ticks up from the prior. Spanish HICP: Ticks up a touch on a yearly basis, in line with expectations, the monthly rate falls a touch beneath expectations and previous. German CPI: Implies the nationwide rate (due at 13:00 BST) will cool at a faster rate than expected. Limited moves were seen on the metrics with EUR/USD falling around 15 pips from 08:00BST. ECB pricing for June continues to price a c.89% probability of a 25bps hike.
  • Tokyo CPI softened across the board in May, with core CPI slowing to 1.3% Y/Y from 1.5%, below expectations of 1.5%. The downside was largely driven by government subsidies on utilities and education costs. The release marks a fourth consecutive month of Tokyo core inflation running below the BoJ’s 2% target and contrasts with stronger activity data elsewhere in the economy. For the BoJ, the print provides ammunition for doves arguing for patience. Markets continue to expect the bank to raise rates at the June confab, with 18bps, or 71% probability of a 25bps hike. We expect the release of data which could show intervention occurred in April, which is due around 11:00 BST. USD/JPY trades unchanged within a narrow 18-pip 159.20-159.38 range.
  • Kiwi is the best G10 performer after hawkish speak from RBNZ officials overnight. Breman (Consensus voter) said she sees ongoing uncertainty around inflation and that, on balance, the OCR is likely to increase. Assistant Governor Silk (Consensus voter) said she did not think interest rates need to increase yet, though she cautioned that the bias is for rate hikes in the coming meetings. As such, following the hawkish speak from non-dissenting members, the bias for July is tightening with markets assigning a 70% probability of such action.

Central Banks

  • Fed's Kashkari (voter) said it is now unclear what the future path of monetary policy will be due to the Iran war; it is premature to conclude that the Fed needs to raise rates immediately after the April PCE inflation data. Speaking on PCE data, Kashkari said it makes him pay even more attention to inflation risks.
  • Former BoJ Board Member Sakurai said BoJ will likely raise rates in June, Bloomberg reported.
  • ECB’s Panetta said medium-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored to target. For the June rate decision, it is crucial to assess the extent of the pass-through of higher energy prices. The forward-looking picture seems to call for a recalibration of the monetary policy stance. ECB will act in a timely and measured manner to stop the energy shock from turning into persistent inflation. Consumers’ inflation expectations are rising and firms have already started planning price increases.
  • BoE Governor Bailey says have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required. Having taken expected cuts off the table for now, we have already tightened policy considerably in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets. Uncertainty about the strength of second-round effects means that monetary policy needs to balance the costs of leaning too little against these effects against the costs of responding too much. Tolerating temporarily above-target inflation to provide some support for the real economy is an appropriate way to approach the trade-off. But that tolerance would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge. Higher inflation expectations are not coming through in wage expectations and settlements. Hope a fall in UK bond market curve will go on but depends on events in the Middle East. Markets "obviously" see pressure on fiscal plans of government from Iran war impact.
  • RBNZ Governor Breman said sees ongoing uncertainty around inflation and that on balance, the OCR is likely to increase.
  • RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said did not think interest rates need to increase yet, but inflation pressures are building in the near term, adds looking at high frequency data for July decision, bias is we're going to see rate hikes in coming meetings.
  • RBNZ's Gourley said rates likely to rise sooner rather than later, but speed and size of any increase will depend on data.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8176 vs exp. 6.7685 (prev. 6.8240).
  • Riksbank Financial Stability Report: The war in the Middle East entails risks to financial stability. The financial system has functioned well, but uncertainty is high. Favourable initial position for the Swedish financial system but risks remain. Maintains the CCyB at 2%.

Fixed Income

  • A modestly bearish start to the day for fixed income, as we ease modestly off the post-Axios peaks on Thursday and continue to await the assessment of US President Trump on the MOU. Note, a recent dip in energy has provided some modest support.
  • USTs at the lower end of a 109-31 to 110-06 band, having faded from Thursday's 110-07+ WTD peak. The docket for the US ahead is primarily waiting for Trump to comment on the MOU situation, and as such USTs may be relatively rangebound until an update occurs. That aside, we look for remarks from various Fed speakers. This morning, Kashkari (2026) said it is unclear what the future path of policy is and, in the context of April's PCE, that it would be premature to conclude they need to tighten immediately.
  • Bunds are in line with the above for the most part, but have been moved about a touch by European data for May. At first, the benchmark found itself at a 126.05 trough with downside of just under 15 ticks, having also faded from Thursday's 126.47 best; note, that was a tick shy of Monday's high and the WTD peak. Thereafter, EGBs saw some modest upside on the cooler-than-expected French preliminary inflation print for May. Albeit, the move was only c. 10 ticks in Bunds and OATs, as prices lifted from the prior level. Next up was Spain, which printed as expected at a harmonised level and a touch cooler on the headline Y/Y. Note, the core figure ticked up to 2.9% (prev. 2.8%). Modest two-way action followed the data. Followed by Germany, where the state figures came in cooler than the prior level and have shifted the mainland consensus to a cooler print, vs pre-state forecasts for another 2.9% Y/Y figure. Finally, Italy was hotter than expected for all components aside from the headline Y/Y.
  • We await the German nationwide figure at 13:00BST before assessing next week's EZ HICP. As it stands, Bunds are just off a 126.33 high, lifted alongside peers following a bout of energy pressure.
  • Gilts started the day unchanged before experiencing some modest pressure in line with the slight overnight bias in peers, moving to an 88.48 trough. Since, BoE's Bailey spoke and his remarks perhaps have a slight dovish skew, as he noted that the BoE removing expected cuts has already "tightened policy considerably" and tolerating temporarily above target inflation to help the economy is an appropriate approach. Albeit, Bailey made clear that such tolerance would erode if "signs of second-round effects begin to emerge".
  • Japan sold JPY 2.1tln 2-year JGBs b/c 3.70 (prev. 5.24), average yield 1.369% (prev. 1.407%). Lowest accepted price 100.04 (prev. 99.980). Weighted average price 100.06 (prev. 99.985). Tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.005).
  • Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.75% November 2029 bonds b/c 3.67, avg yield 4.4692%.

Commodities

  • The week was marked by a sharp flare-up followed by renewed optimism around diplomacy. Following yesterday’s Axios reports regarding a 60-day MoU framework, Iran’s Tasnim reported that the text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran had not been finalised or confirmed. Uncertainty remains over whether Trump will sign off on the proposal and whether Tehran will formally endorse the reported terms. This morning, there were mixed reports regarding the uranium file, in which Iran rebuffed reports that it wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to the US.
  • Elsewhere in geopolitics, a Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Rutte affirmed "NATO’s absolute solidarity with Romania", and added that "NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory"; "will continue to enhance our readiness to deter and defend against any threat".
  • The crude complex has been choppy this morning, with initial strength earlier in the session now entirely eroded; as it stands, benchmarks are towards session lows. WTI Jul currently trades towards the lower end of a USD 87.17-89.01/bbl range, while Brent Aug sits in a USD 91.28-92.95/bbl. Dutch TTF trades almost 2% firmer north of EUR 47.50/MWh.
  • Spot gold continues the post-PCE rebound seen yesterday, with prices modestly firmer intraday above the USD 4,500/oz level in a USD 4,488-4,530/oz range. Spot silver, conversely, is lower with the precious metal towards the bottom of a USD 75.08-76.44/oz range.
  • Base metals are mostly but modestly softer as traders look ahead to further geopolitical headlines, with price action rather contained at the time of writing. 3M LME copper trades towards the middle of a narrow USD 13,653.93- 13,748.38/t range.
  • Kazakhstan Energy Minister said planned maintenance at the Kashagan oil field (400k bpd) is likely to be delayed until 2027.
  • Commerzbank expects copper to rise to USD 14,250/ton by mid-2027 and Brent crude to reach USD 90/bbl by end-September before declining to USD 85/bbl by year-end.

Trade/Tariffs

  • EU Commissioners will meet for a "orientation debate", which will cover the investigation of Chinese trade practices and an "overcapacity instrument", Politico reported; two probes re. chemicals are already being considered.
  • China will retaliate against EU's overcapacity tool and may probe EU supply chains, according to state-linked Yu Yuantan.

Russia-Ukraine

  • Romanian President said the unprecedented nature of the drone incident requires a firm, coordinated response at both the national and international levels; Romania summoned Russia's ambassador.
  • European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU is preparing the 21st package of sanctions on Russia. EU will bolster security and deterrence, particularly on its eastern border, while maintaining pressure on Russia.
  • Ukraine said that Russia carried out a drone strike on a Turkish vessel overnight.
  • Fuel storage facilities in Russia’s Yaroslavl region were hit by drones.
  • Romanian radio station reported a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, close to the border with Ukraine.
  • Currently no plans to have an extra NATO North Atlantic Council, Free Radio's Jozwiak reported.
  • NATO Secretary General Rutte affirms "NATO’s absolute solidarity with Romania"; adds "NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory"; "will continue to enhance our readiness to deter and defend against any threat".
  • EU Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said Moscow cannot be allowed to breach European airspace with impunity following the drone incident in Romania.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Apr P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 1.3%
  • 9:45 am: May MNI Chicago PMI, est. 50.3, prior 49.2

Central Bank Speakers

  • 12:00 am: Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks at Reagan National Economic Forum
  • 2:00 am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Event in S. Korea
  • 6:50 am: Fed’s Schmid Speaks in Reykjavik
  • 7:45 am: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Fox Business Interview
  • 9:10 am: Fed Supervision Vice Chair Bowman Speaks in Reykjavik
  • 9:15 am: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
  • 12:40 pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Reagan National Economic Forum

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, markets have continued to rally amidst widespread reports that the US and Iran are on the verge of a 60-day ceasefire extension that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So that’s led to mounting optimism about an end to the conflict, with Brent crude oil falling -0.62% yesterday to a one-month low of $93.71/bbl. Moreover, that momentum has continued overnight, with Brent down another -1.40% to $92.40/bbl.

With oil prices coming down, that’s meant investors have started to price out the more stagflationary outcomes for the global economy, with a clear rally across multiple asset classes. In fact, the positivity saw the S&P 500 (+0.58%) hit another record yesterday, advancing for a 6th consecutive session, with futures up another +0.05% this morning. Similarly for bonds, the 10yr Treasury yield (-3.5bps) posted a 6th consecutive decline to 4.45%, and this morning they’re down another -1.2bps as well. So even before the formal confirmation of any deal, there’s already been a strong reaction in markets.

That momentum has continued in Asia this morning, where most of the major equity indices have risen. Indeed, the Nikkei (+2.61%) and the KOSPI (+3.17%) are both on track for a new record, whilst the Hang Seng (+1.11%) has also posted a solid advance. There’s been a bit more weakness in mainland China however, where the CSI 300 (+0.06%) is only up slightly, whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.37%) has fallen back. But generally the mood has remained positive, with a further boost from the latest data from Japan overnight. In particular, the Tokyo CPI print for May was softer than expected, with headline inflation unexpectedly slowing to +1.4% (vs. +1.6% expected), whilst core-core inflation fell to +1.6% (vs. +1.8% expected).

The initial catalyst for this latest rally was an Axios report, which said a deal had been reached on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, with negotiations also starting over Iran’s nuclear program. According to the US officials cited in the article, they said the deal terms were “mostly agreed as of Tuesday”, but that it still needed President Trump’s approval. And the report also said the memorandum would say that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be “unrestricted”.

Later in the day, a similar message was reported by other outlets. For instance, Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran had reached a “tentative deal” on a 60-day ceasefire extension, with further talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance said that although they were “not there yet” on a deal, the US was “getting very close”, which further cemented the optimism. Clearly the details will be important, but US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump’s three “red lines” for a deal are for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, turn over its enriched uranium and end its nuclear program. And Bessent also posted earlier in the day that the US would “not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Those headlines helped to drive a sharp move lower for oil yesterday. So Brent crude pared back its earlier gains to close -0.62% lower, hitting a one-month low of $93.71/bbl, with further declines overnight to $92.40/bbl. Indeed, it also means that oil prices are down over -18% over May as a whole, which would make this the biggest monthly decline since March 2020, back when the Covid-19 pandemic began and the world moved into lockdowns. And in turn for bonds and equities, there was growing relief that oil prices were coming down and the more stagflationary scenarios would be avoided.

Whilst the geopolitical headlines provided the main boost to markets yesterday, they got further support after the latest US PCE inflation print was softer than expected, easing concern around the need for rate hikes. The release showed that headline PCE was only up +0.4% in April (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst core PCE was up +0.2% (vs. +0.3% expected). So that led investors to dial back expectations for a Fed rate hike, with the probability of a hike by December down to 59% by the close, having been at 62% the previous day. Fed officials also didn’t sound in a rush to hike either, with NY Fed President Williams saying that monetary policy “is right where we want it to be”. Admittedly, there was discussion of a hike, with St Louis Fed President Musalem acknowledging there “there is a scenario where the economy might require a rate increase”, but that was still conditional.

Ultimately, the combination of that downside inflation surprise and hopes for a US-Iran deal meant US Treasuries put in another strong performance yesterday. So the 10yr yield (-3.6bps) fell back to 4.45%, posting a 6th consecutive decline for the first time in over a year, and they’re on track for a 7th decline this morning. In addition, there was further downside pressure on yields after some of the US growth data was a bit weaker than expected. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims rose to 215k in the week ending May 23 (vs. 211k expected). And if we look further back, the second GDP estimate for Q1 showed that growth was weaker than previously thought earlier this year, only running at an annualised +1.6% (vs. +2.0% before).

US equities also put in a solid performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.58%) at another record thanks to the geopolitical headlines and more dovish rates pricing. Moreover, the index is now up +10% YTD for the first time, and there were fresh records for the NASDAQ (+0.91%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.57%) as well. But for European equities there was a much weaker performance, with the tech outperformance unable to prevent the STOXX 600 (-0.49%) falling to a one-week low.

Otherwise in Europe, the easing inflation risk meant that sovereign bonds continued to rally. UK gilts saw the biggest outperformance, continuing their pattern of seeing the biggest moves in either direction since the Iran conflict began. So the 10yr gilt yield (-4.4bps) fell to a one-month low of 4.81% by the close. And it was a similar story across the rest of Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.5bps), OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-2.4bps) falling back as well.

Those bond moves came as investors also dialled back the prospect of rapid ECB hikes this year. For example, the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting was down to 55bps, down -2.5bps on the previous day. Interestingly though, the accounts from the ECB’s last meeting in April were published yesterday, which said that “A number of members noted that the decision was a close call and that they would not have opposed raising rates at the current meeting had this been on the table.” However, it ultimately said that “all members were willing to rally behind the decision to keep policy rates unchanged”, so long as the communication stressed a commitment to ensuring “that inflation stabilised at the target in the medium term.” Looking forward, markets continue to see an ECB rate hike in June as highly likely, priced as an 89% chance as of yesterday’s close, which would be their first hike since 2023.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the flash CPI prints for May from Germany, France and Italy, along with German unemployment for May. In the US, we’ll also get the advance goods trade balance for April. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, Schmid, Bowman, Paulson and Daly, the ECB’s Panetta, Radev and Muller, and BoE Governor Bailey.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 08:29

Futures Hit Another Record High After Pricing In Same "Iran Deal" Every Day For The Past Month

Zero Hedge -

Futures Hit Another Record High After Pricing In Same "Iran Deal" Every Day For The Past Month

US equity futures are higher, continuing their slow motion-gamma squeeze into record territory, as traders waited to see whether America and Iran could finally get the peace deal they have already priced in every single day for the past month. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, and poised to rise for the ninth consecutive week, the best streak since 2023; Nasdaq futs also have modest gains. In the pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower with AMZN (-1.0%), TSLA (-0.7%), AAPL (-0.6%) the laggards even as evidence of relentless demand for AI-infrastructure stocks was on display as Dell jumped 37% after the legacy computer maker gave a sales outlook that far surpassed analysts’ estimates, fueled by servers designed to run AI workloads. MSCI All Country World Index on track for a second monthly gain, both European and Asian markets were higher overnight. Bond yields are flat at 4.44% and the USD remains unchanged. WTI crude fell $1.46 to $87.44, while Brent traded around $92; base metals are all higher; gold added 0.7%. Economic data slate includes April advance goods trade balance and retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am) and May MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers). Fed speaker slate includes Daly (7:45am, 12:40pm), Bowman (9:10am) and Paulson (9:15am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia +0.5%, Tesla -0.4%, Apple -0.5%, Meta -0.5%, Amazon -0.7%, Alphabet -0.8%)

  • American Eagle shares (AEO) tumbled 11% after the clothing retailer reported total comparable sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Autodesk’s (ADSK) falls 7% after its proposed acquisition of MaintainX has been tentatively welcomed by analysts, who see the deal as expensive but representing a strong strategic move.
  • Dell Technologies shares (DELL) surge 35% after the Texas-based company raised both its full year revenue and adjusted EPS outlooks on strong demand for its AI-powering servers.
  • Elastic (ESTC) is down 5.4% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted first-quarter earnings that was weaker than expected.
  • Gap (GAP) shares fell 15% after the clothing retailer reported its latest earnings with poor performance by the company’s Old Navy brand that weighed on the full-year outlook in an otherwise mixed report.
  • Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is up 5% after the doughnut chain’s Director Bernardo Hees acquired $768,718 of stock, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • NetApp (NTAP) rallies 19% after the data storage provider reported its latest earnings with a strong print from the company, showing strong growth.
  • Nextpower Inc. shares (NXT) rise 11% after it agreed to buy Prevalon Energy, a joint venture between Mitsubishi Power Americas and EES, for up to $365 million in cash and stock.
  • PagerDuty shares (PD) are up 13% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
  • SentinelOne shares (S) fall 12% after the software company gave a second-quarter revenue forecast that was weaker than expected and announced it would reduce its full-time employees by 8%.
  • UiPath shares (PATH) are down 4.6% after the software company reported first-quarter results that analysts are generally positive on, although they want to see greater confirmation of durable growth in annualized recurring revenue.
  • Viasat (VSAT) falls 7.2% after the wireless communications firm’s fourth-quarter earnings undershot analysts’ expectations.

In other news, space-related stocks gave back some recent gains after Elon Musk’s SpaceX cut its valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter. AST SpaceMobile Inc. fell 13%, while Rocket Lab Corp. slipped 5.3%. APfizer and Innovent Biologics signed a global agreement to develop cancer drugs, including a $650 million upfront payment and up to $9.85 billion in potential milestones. Costco reported higher-than-expected profit in the latest quarter, showing the club chain continues to gain ground among cautious US shoppers. 

A preliminary deal between Washington and Tehran to extend a ceasefire by 60 days is awaiting signoff from President Donald Trump. Vice President JD Vance told reporters Thursday that the parties are “going back and forth on a couple of language points,” including issues relating to Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The prospect of a peace deal - the same peace deal the market has priced in every day since April - in the Middle East is easing pressure on oil prices and raising conviction that markets’ worst inflation fears wouldn’t come to pass, even as oil flows remain blocked and inventories are getting drained at a record pace. That confidence comes against a backdrop of an unprecedented artificial intelligence-led rally that has seen US-listed chipmakers surge nearly 70% since the start of April. Dell’s mic-dropping earnings print is being seen as evidence of “the latest perceived dinosaur tech to rediscover a new lease of life as an AI powerhouse, following in the footsteps of Intel, Cisco, Nokia, and Lenovo,” notes Emmanuel Valavanis of Forte Securities. 

“Brent below $90 by the end of next week seems at our reach,” wrote Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “It would create a rather supportive environment should it happen, clearly as oil prices have been the source of most macro fears this year.”

With energy prices coming off the boil, investors have begun to dial back expectations of a stagflationary shock for the global economy. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it’s too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise, remarks that validated a six-day run of gains in Treasuries through Thursday.

“If a deal is agreed upon, we should see another leg higher in risky assets and lower in rates,” noted Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “Positioning suggests that the rates market should see a greater reaction than equities.”

The fact that the market has no clear view on the extent of the consequences of the conflict is a reason for caution, said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “Due to past disappointments, euphoria remains rather subdued,” he said. “Short-term price fluctuations are not yet sufficient to provide lasting stability to oil-dependent stocks.”

Info Tech has led sector gains month-to-date on the back of the AI narrative backed by strong earnings, supportive valuations and momentum. BI quantitative strategists note that since the launch of the Bloomberg AI Index in April 2015, a monthly rebalanced portfolio of high-momentum AI names has delivered a remarkable 41.02% annualized return on 28.69% volatility, equating to a Sharpe ratio of 1.43.

“The market is looking for an excuse to trend higher,” Pooja Malik, partner at Nipun Capital, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Still, “while the AI rally, both from a fundamental and a sentiment perspective, has a huge amount of momentum, the inflation risk is real. If that results in interest rate hikes, that itself could act as a big break on this whole AI tech positive momentum,” she added.

Tech is likely to remain in the headlines over the weekend and into next week, with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang leading a parade of AI computing leaders in Taiwan for Asia’s biggest technology showcase, Computex. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% to erase losses for the week.  Travel and leisure shares are among the biggest gainers, as Brent crude fell to $93 per barrel.  Thematically, Luxury, Ceasefire, Software and Momentum Short are among the top performing baskets. Germany Unemployment Rate printed 6.3% vs, 6.4% survey and 6.4% prior. German regional CPI released this morning were mostly softer than last month. May Tokyo CPI prints 1.4% vs. 1.6% survey vs. 1.5% prior. Here are the top movers:

  • Ocado shares jump as much as 14% as the online food retailer enters a partnership with Asda to develop the supermarket’s online business across the UK with the Ocado Smart Platform
  • CTS Eventim shares rise as much as 13%, the most since November 2020, after the events firm reported first-quarter sales and Ebitda that both beat consensus estimates
  • Vivendi shares rise as much as 8.4% after a press report strengthened the case of minority shareholders seeking a buyout from Bollore SE, CIC CIB argues in a note
  • BAM Groep shares rise as much as 17% to their highest level since 2008, after Oddo BHF double upgraded the stock to outperform on better-than-expected UK profitability and lower risks from legacy projects
  • Ceres Power gains as much as 4.9% after Berenberg lifted its price target on the stock, saying the clean-energy technology developer is a beneficiary of the AI and data center boom
  • Dottikon Es shares fall as much as 20%, the most on record, after results from the Swiss pharmaceutical ingredients firm that Zuercher Kantonalbank called disappointing at all levels except for cash flows
  • Wickes and B&M European shares fall as much as 6.6% and 3.0% respectively as Deutsche Numis analysts cut their recommendation on both to sell on concern about the effect of hotter inflation on lower income consumers and big ticket spending

Earlier in the session, Asian equities rebounded as a tentative US-Iran deal to extend their ceasefire revived appetite for risk assets and caused oil prices to drop. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.1%, with most stock benchmarks in the region in the green. South Korea’s Kospi gauge led the pack with a gain of 3.6%. A rally in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has forced some funds bound by a 10% single-stock cap rule to to reshuffle their portfolios. Meanwhile, Asian computer-related stocks advanced after Dell shares soared in extended trading on raised guidance due to strong demand for its AI-powering servers.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up by 0.1% with New Zealand dollar outperforming after central bank comments.

In rates, treasuries narrowly mixed, keeping yields within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels, with oil at a six-week low after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend a ceasefire by 60 days. US 10-year yield near 4.44% as European bond yields edging lower in spite of hotter inflation readings in France, Spain and Italy, with Germany the only outlier. US curve spreads are marginally wider, also within a basis point of Thursday’s close. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Almost $7 billion was priced Thursday, taking weekly supply over $40 billion. Borrowers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.1 times covered. Early dealer forecasts for June US high-grade supply are in the $130 billion-$135 billion range, versus $109 billion in June 2025. Focal points of US session includes several Fed speakers and potential for buying tied to month-end index rebalancing. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 1.9% on optimism the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. Gold prices moving higher and back above $4,500/oz.

Economic data slate includes April advance goods trade balance and retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am) and May MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers). Fed speaker slate includes Daly (7:45am, 12:40pm), Bowman (9:10am) and Paulson (9:15am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • Iran and US reach deal to extend ceasefire, pending Trump's approval: RTRS
  • Bond market volatility is boosting the case for Japan's central bank to pause the unwinding of its massive debt holdings next fiscal year, which would give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi some relief amid growing investor concerns about her spending plans. RTRS
  • China is targeting billions held offshore in the biggest crackdown in decades, with ramifications for the financial advisers and funds that help manage money overseas. BBG
  • Samsung Electronics Co. has begun shipping samples of the industry’s most advanced memory to customers, taking an early lead in a race to supply the essential components for AI accelerators made by the likes of Nvidia Corp. BBG
  • Apollo Global Management Inc. and Blackstone Inc. are working to bring additional investors into a roughly $36 billion debt financing deal to help Anthropic PBC build out its AI infrastructure. BBG
  • France’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, with households reining in spending as consumer confidence slid. BBG
  • Tokyo’s key inflation gauge cooled to the slowest pace in four years, with the consumer price index excluding fresh food rising 1.3% in May from a year earlier. BBG
  • Inflation in France, Italy and Spain jumped in May, reinforcing the case for the ECB to raise interest rates in June. BBG
  • Americans are saving less as the everyday cost of living rises and wages struggle to keep up. The personal savings rate — defined as the share of income Americans have after taxes and expenses — hit 2.6% in April, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday. That’s down from 3.2% in March, and 5.8% a year prior. CNBC
  • Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth has warned oil prices are likely to rise over the next two months as crude inventories continue to decline due to the Iran war. FT
  • US State Department designates Brazilian criminal organisations Comando Vermelho and PCC as specially designated global terrorists, effective June 5th.
  • Heading into month-end, Goldman estimates $14 billion of US equities to sell from US pensions given the moves in equities and bonds. This expiry is the 12th largest non-quarterly sell estimate on record (since 2000). 

Iran War

  • Many points regarding the Iranian nuclear file have been resolved; Iran has agreed to international oversight of its nuclear facilities to prevent their dismantling, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Iran wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to America.
  • Chairman of the Iranian National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament said there are no plans to transfer enriched uranium out of the country, Asharq reported.
  • Iran Deputy for Foreign Policy and International Security Ali Baqeri held separate meetings in Moscow with the Foreign Policy Advisor to Brazil's President and the Secretary General of Egypt's National Security Council.
  • IRGC Commander said Iran forces are ready to act on Supreme Leader's order and enemies should not make mistakes as they will get themselves and others into trouble.
  • Iran military source said US drone was intercepted near Bushehr in southern Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
  • US Vice President Vance said that US President Trump is not yet ready to endorse the Iran agreement, while Vance noted that US and Iran made a lot of progress towards a ceasefire deal, according to AFP. Vance said US and Iran are at odds on uranium enrichment and stockpiles, according to SNN.
  • White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller stating in an interview with Fox News that US President Trump is directly involved in negotiations with Iran.
  • US President Trump said we completely sank the Iranian Navy and destroyed their air force, did not target all of Iran’s military leadership so that what happened in Iraq would not be repeated.
  • US military said Iran's state TV claim that Iranian forces downed a US aircraft near Bushehr is false and no US aircraft was shot down by Iran, with all US air assets are accounted for.
  • US VP Vance said US and Iran are exchanging proposals regarding some drafting points including issue of enrichment, adds time is still early to know when an agreement with Iran will be reached and if it will happen at all.
  • US Treasury imposes fresh sanctions targeting Iran's military oil sales, according to Reuters. IRNA reported US sanctions 25 individuals, firms and vessels over Iran oil.
  • US President Trump said that US has all the cards, Iran has been defeated militarily, according to a Fox interview.
  • Al Hadath posted Iranian television reported “the downing of an American fighter jet” in the vicinity of Bushehr, with no American confirmations.
  • US official denies what Iranian TV announced about downing any American plane near Bushehr, according to Al Hadath.
  • Israel's Channel 12, citing military sources, said "The army recommends to the political leadership intensifying the air and ground strikes in Lebanon".

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks headed into month-end on the front foot as the region took impetus from the gains stateside, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted fresh record highs amid reports of a tentative agreement regarding an MOU for a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension and to launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme, although it still needs approval from US President Trump, while Iranian sources also pushed back and stated it was not finalised. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources industries, while the energy and defensive sectors were at the other end of the spectrum as geopolitics and oil moves remained the main catalyst for price action. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 66,000 level amid lower oil prices and following a slew of data, including softer Tokyo CPI, lower Unemployment, and better-than-expected industrial output & retail sales. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the mainland lagged and with headwinds from earnings, as automakers were pressured following weak results from XPeng, while sentiment was also not helped by trade frictions, with the EU set to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he is extremely concerned about speculative moves in the FX market; won't comment on FX levels and intervention. Government stance is to always take appropriate FX action.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said we'll consider cost risk balance in reference to issuing bonds and to engage in dialogue with market on bond management, while she declines comment on future bond maturities at this time. said:. It's important to have broad bond investor base. Will continue appropriate debt management policies.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan can take decisive action on FX volatility, while she declined to comment on whether intervention has taken place or not.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are firmer across the board, attempting to rebound from recent losses and as markets digest reports that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement to extend the ceasefire. (See the commodities section for details.) From an index standpoint, the CAC 40 (+1%) outperforms in Europe whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) lags vs peers, given its exposure to energy names. European sectors hold a positive bias. The cyclical industries (Consumer Products / Travel & Leisure / Autos) top the sectoral list, whilst the likes of Energy and Utilities hold towards the bottom of the pile. The Energy sector, unsurprisingly, has been dragged down by losses across the underlying oil complex.

Top European News

  • Communications between former UK Minister Wes Streeting (potential PM candidate) and Peter Mandelson will be published next week, The Sun reported.

FX

  • G10s are mixed against the Dollar. Kiwi leads after hawkish RBNZ speak overnight after the hawkish-leaning RBNZ hold early in the week, while Sterling lags after Cable dipped below its 200DMA.
  • The Greenback is a touch firmer in a rebound from hefty losses on Thursday, when the DXY closed 0.6% from highs. (See Commodities on the headline feed). In short, a deal seems near, but uncertainty remains over whether Trump will sign off on the proposal and whether Tehran will formally endorse the reported terms. Aside from US-Iran, eyes are also on tensions between NATO’s Romania and Russia after a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati. DXY is firmer by 0.2% within 98.95-99.19 parameters.
  • French, Spanish and German state inflation imply cooler German nationwide (due 13:00 BST), and EZ (due Tuesday) prints. French GDP: Final measures softer than expected. Q1 rate was revised into contraction from flat, yearly basis was also revised a touch lower. French HICP: Softer than expected and ticks up from the prior. Spanish HICP: Ticks up a touch on a yearly basis, in line with expectations, the monthly rate falls a touch beneath expectations and previous. German CPI: Implies the nationwide rate (due at 13:00 BST) will cool at a faster rate than expected. Limited moves were seen on the metrics with EUR/USD falling around 15 pips from 08:00BST. ECB pricing for June continues to price a c.89% probability of a 25bps hike.
  • Tokyo CPI softened across the board in May, with core CPI slowing to 1.3% Y/Y from 1.5%, below expectations of 1.5%. The downside was largely driven by government subsidies on utilities and education costs. The release marks a fourth consecutive month of Tokyo core inflation running below the BoJ’s 2% target and contrasts with stronger activity data elsewhere in the economy. For the BoJ, the print provides ammunition for doves arguing for patience. Markets continue to expect the bank to raise rates at the June confab, with 18bps, or 71% probability of a 25bps hike. We expect the release of data which could show intervention occurred in April, which is due around 11:00 BST. USD/JPY trades unchanged within a narrow 18-pip 159.20-159.38 range.
  • Kiwi is the best G10 performer after hawkish speak from RBNZ officials overnight. Breman (Consensus voter) said she sees ongoing uncertainty around inflation and that, on balance, the OCR is likely to increase. Assistant Governor Silk (Consensus voter) said she did not think interest rates need to increase yet, though she cautioned that the bias is for rate hikes in the coming meetings. As such, following the hawkish speak from non-dissenting members, the bias for July is tightening with markets assigning a 70% probability of such action.

Central Banks

  • Fed's Kashkari (voter) said it is now unclear what the future path of monetary policy will be due to the Iran war; it is premature to conclude that the Fed needs to raise rates immediately after the April PCE inflation data. Speaking on PCE data, Kashkari said it makes him pay even more attention to inflation risks.
  • Former BoJ Board Member Sakurai said BoJ will likely raise rates in June, Bloomberg reported.
  • ECB’s Panetta said medium-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored to target. For the June rate decision, it is crucial to assess the extent of the pass-through of higher energy prices. The forward-looking picture seems to call for a recalibration of the monetary policy stance. ECB will act in a timely and measured manner to stop the energy shock from turning into persistent inflation. Consumers’ inflation expectations are rising and firms have already started planning price increases.
  • BoE Governor Bailey says have to monitor the situation in the Middle East and how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely and adjust policy as required. Having taken expected cuts off the table for now, we have already tightened policy considerably in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets. Uncertainty about the strength of second-round effects means that monetary policy needs to balance the costs of leaning too little against these effects against the costs of responding too much. Tolerating temporarily above-target inflation to provide some support for the real economy is an appropriate way to approach the trade-off. But that tolerance would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge. Higher inflation expectations are not coming through in wage expectations and settlements. Hope a fall in UK bond market curve will go on but depends on events in the Middle East. Markets "obviously" see pressure on fiscal plans of government from Iran war impact.
  • RBNZ Governor Breman said sees ongoing uncertainty around inflation and that on balance, the OCR is likely to increase.
  • RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said did not think interest rates need to increase yet, but inflation pressures are building in the near term, adds looking at high frequency data for July decision, bias is we're going to see rate hikes in coming meetings.
  • RBNZ's Gourley said rates likely to rise sooner rather than later, but speed and size of any increase will depend on data.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8176 vs exp. 6.7685 (prev. 6.8240).
  • Riksbank Financial Stability Report: The war in the Middle East entails risks to financial stability. The financial system has functioned well, but uncertainty is high. Favourable initial position for the Swedish financial system but risks remain. Maintains the CCyB at 2%.

Fixed Income

  • A modestly bearish start to the day for fixed income, as we ease modestly off the post-Axios peaks on Thursday and continue to await the assessment of US President Trump on the MOU. Note, a recent dip in energy has provided some modest support.
  • USTs at the lower end of a 109-31 to 110-06 band, having faded from Thursday's 110-07+ WTD peak. The docket for the US ahead is primarily waiting for Trump to comment on the MOU situation, and as such USTs may be relatively rangebound until an update occurs. That aside, we look for remarks from various Fed speakers. This morning, Kashkari (2026) said it is unclear what the future path of policy is and, in the context of April's PCE, that it would be premature to conclude they need to tighten immediately.
  • Bunds are in line with the above for the most part, but have been moved about a touch by European data for May. At first, the benchmark found itself at a 126.05 trough with downside of just under 15 ticks, having also faded from Thursday's 126.47 best; note, that was a tick shy of Monday's high and the WTD peak. Thereafter, EGBs saw some modest upside on the cooler-than-expected French preliminary inflation print for May. Albeit, the move was only c. 10 ticks in Bunds and OATs, as prices lifted from the prior level. Next up was Spain, which printed as expected at a harmonised level and a touch cooler on the headline Y/Y. Note, the core figure ticked up to 2.9% (prev. 2.8%). Modest two-way action followed the data. Followed by Germany, where the state figures came in cooler than the prior level and have shifted the mainland consensus to a cooler print, vs pre-state forecasts for another 2.9% Y/Y figure. Finally, Italy was hotter than expected for all components aside from the headline Y/Y.
  • We await the German nationwide figure at 13:00BST before assessing next week's EZ HICP. As it stands, Bunds are just off a 126.33 high, lifted alongside peers following a bout of energy pressure.
  • Gilts started the day unchanged before experiencing some modest pressure in line with the slight overnight bias in peers, moving to an 88.48 trough. Since, BoE's Bailey spoke and his remarks perhaps have a slight dovish skew, as he noted that the BoE removing expected cuts has already "tightened policy considerably" and tolerating temporarily above target inflation to help the economy is an appropriate approach. Albeit, Bailey made clear that such tolerance would erode if "signs of second-round effects begin to emerge".
  • Japan sold JPY 2.1tln 2-year JGBs b/c 3.70 (prev. 5.24), average yield 1.369% (prev. 1.407%). Lowest accepted price 100.04 (prev. 99.980). Weighted average price 100.06 (prev. 99.985). Tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.005).
  • Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.75% November 2029 bonds b/c 3.67, avg yield 4.4692%.

Commodities

  • The week was marked by a sharp flare-up followed by renewed optimism around diplomacy. Following yesterday’s Axios reports regarding a 60-day MoU framework, Iran’s Tasnim reported that the text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran had not been finalised or confirmed. Uncertainty remains over whether Trump will sign off on the proposal and whether Tehran will formally endorse the reported terms. This morning, there were mixed reports regarding the uranium file, in which Iran rebuffed reports that it wants to transfer the enriched uranium to China with a commitment not to deliver it to the US.
  • Elsewhere in geopolitics, a Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Rutte affirmed "NATO’s absolute solidarity with Romania", and added that "NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory"; "will continue to enhance our readiness to deter and defend against any threat".
  • The crude complex has been choppy this morning, with initial strength earlier in the session now entirely eroded; as it stands, benchmarks are towards session lows. WTI Jul currently trades towards the lower end of a USD 87.17-89.01/bbl range, while Brent Aug sits in a USD 91.28-92.95/bbl. Dutch TTF trades almost 2% firmer north of EUR 47.50/MWh.
  • Spot gold continues the post-PCE rebound seen yesterday, with prices modestly firmer intraday above the USD 4,500/oz level in a USD 4,488-4,530/oz range. Spot silver, conversely, is lower with the precious metal towards the bottom of a USD 75.08-76.44/oz range.
  • Base metals are mostly but modestly softer as traders look ahead to further geopolitical headlines, with price action rather contained at the time of writing. 3M LME copper trades towards the middle of a narrow USD 13,653.93- 13,748.38/t range.
  • Kazakhstan Energy Minister said planned maintenance at the Kashagan oil field (400k bpd) is likely to be delayed until 2027.
  • Commerzbank expects copper to rise to USD 14,250/ton by mid-2027 and Brent crude to reach USD 90/bbl by end-September before declining to USD 85/bbl by year-end.

Trade/Tariffs

  • EU Commissioners will meet for a "orientation debate", which will cover the investigation of Chinese trade practices and an "overcapacity instrument", Politico reported; two probes re. chemicals are already being considered.
  • China will retaliate against EU's overcapacity tool and may probe EU supply chains, according to state-linked Yu Yuantan.

Russia-Ukraine

  • Romanian President said the unprecedented nature of the drone incident requires a firm, coordinated response at both the national and international levels; Romania summoned Russia's ambassador.
  • European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU is preparing the 21st package of sanctions on Russia. EU will bolster security and deterrence, particularly on its eastern border, while maintaining pressure on Russia.
  • Ukraine said that Russia carried out a drone strike on a Turkish vessel overnight.
  • Fuel storage facilities in Russia’s Yaroslavl region were hit by drones.
  • Romanian radio station reported a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, close to the border with Ukraine.
  • Currently no plans to have an extra NATO North Atlantic Council, Free Radio's Jozwiak reported.
  • NATO Secretary General Rutte affirms "NATO’s absolute solidarity with Romania"; adds "NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory"; "will continue to enhance our readiness to deter and defend against any threat".
  • EU Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said Moscow cannot be allowed to breach European airspace with impunity following the drone incident in Romania.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Apr P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 1.3%
  • 9:45 am: May MNI Chicago PMI, est. 50.3, prior 49.2

Central Bank Speakers

  • 12:00 am: Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks at Reagan National Economic Forum
  • 2:00 am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Event in S. Korea
  • 6:50 am: Fed’s Schmid Speaks in Reykjavik
  • 7:45 am: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Fox Business Interview
  • 9:10 am: Fed Supervision Vice Chair Bowman Speaks in Reykjavik
  • 9:15 am: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
  • 12:40 pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Reagan National Economic Forum

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, markets have continued to rally amidst widespread reports that the US and Iran are on the verge of a 60-day ceasefire extension that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So that’s led to mounting optimism about an end to the conflict, with Brent crude oil falling -0.62% yesterday to a one-month low of $93.71/bbl. Moreover, that momentum has continued overnight, with Brent down another -1.40% to $92.40/bbl.

With oil prices coming down, that’s meant investors have started to price out the more stagflationary outcomes for the global economy, with a clear rally across multiple asset classes. In fact, the positivity saw the S&P 500 (+0.58%) hit another record yesterday, advancing for a 6th consecutive session, with futures up another +0.05% this morning. Similarly for bonds, the 10yr Treasury yield (-3.5bps) posted a 6th consecutive decline to 4.45%, and this morning they’re down another -1.2bps as well. So even before the formal confirmation of any deal, there’s already been a strong reaction in markets.

That momentum has continued in Asia this morning, where most of the major equity indices have risen. Indeed, the Nikkei (+2.61%) and the KOSPI (+3.17%) are both on track for a new record, whilst the Hang Seng (+1.11%) has also posted a solid advance. There’s been a bit more weakness in mainland China however, where the CSI 300 (+0.06%) is only up slightly, whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.37%) has fallen back. But generally the mood has remained positive, with a further boost from the latest data from Japan overnight. In particular, the Tokyo CPI print for May was softer than expected, with headline inflation unexpectedly slowing to +1.4% (vs. +1.6% expected), whilst core-core inflation fell to +1.6% (vs. +1.8% expected).

The initial catalyst for this latest rally was an Axios report, which said a deal had been reached on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, with negotiations also starting over Iran’s nuclear program. According to the US officials cited in the article, they said the deal terms were “mostly agreed as of Tuesday”, but that it still needed President Trump’s approval. And the report also said the memorandum would say that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be “unrestricted”.

Later in the day, a similar message was reported by other outlets. For instance, Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran had reached a “tentative deal” on a 60-day ceasefire extension, with further talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance said that although they were “not there yet” on a deal, the US was “getting very close”, which further cemented the optimism. Clearly the details will be important, but US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump’s three “red lines” for a deal are for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, turn over its enriched uranium and end its nuclear program. And Bessent also posted earlier in the day that the US would “not tolerate any effort to impose a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Those headlines helped to drive a sharp move lower for oil yesterday. So Brent crude pared back its earlier gains to close -0.62% lower, hitting a one-month low of $93.71/bbl, with further declines overnight to $92.40/bbl. Indeed, it also means that oil prices are down over -18% over May as a whole, which would make this the biggest monthly decline since March 2020, back when the Covid-19 pandemic began and the world moved into lockdowns. And in turn for bonds and equities, there was growing relief that oil prices were coming down and the more stagflationary scenarios would be avoided.

Whilst the geopolitical headlines provided the main boost to markets yesterday, they got further support after the latest US PCE inflation print was softer than expected, easing concern around the need for rate hikes. The release showed that headline PCE was only up +0.4% in April (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst core PCE was up +0.2% (vs. +0.3% expected). So that led investors to dial back expectations for a Fed rate hike, with the probability of a hike by December down to 59% by the close, having been at 62% the previous day. Fed officials also didn’t sound in a rush to hike either, with NY Fed President Williams saying that monetary policy “is right where we want it to be”. Admittedly, there was discussion of a hike, with St Louis Fed President Musalem acknowledging there “there is a scenario where the economy might require a rate increase”, but that was still conditional.

Ultimately, the combination of that downside inflation surprise and hopes for a US-Iran deal meant US Treasuries put in another strong performance yesterday. So the 10yr yield (-3.6bps) fell back to 4.45%, posting a 6th consecutive decline for the first time in over a year, and they’re on track for a 7th decline this morning. In addition, there was further downside pressure on yields after some of the US growth data was a bit weaker than expected. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims rose to 215k in the week ending May 23 (vs. 211k expected). And if we look further back, the second GDP estimate for Q1 showed that growth was weaker than previously thought earlier this year, only running at an annualised +1.6% (vs. +2.0% before).

US equities also put in a solid performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.58%) at another record thanks to the geopolitical headlines and more dovish rates pricing. Moreover, the index is now up +10% YTD for the first time, and there were fresh records for the NASDAQ (+0.91%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.57%) as well. But for European equities there was a much weaker performance, with the tech outperformance unable to prevent the STOXX 600 (-0.49%) falling to a one-week low.

Otherwise in Europe, the easing inflation risk meant that sovereign bonds continued to rally. UK gilts saw the biggest outperformance, continuing their pattern of seeing the biggest moves in either direction since the Iran conflict began. So the 10yr gilt yield (-4.4bps) fell to a one-month low of 4.81% by the close. And it was a similar story across the rest of Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.5bps), OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-2.4bps) falling back as well.

Those bond moves came as investors also dialled back the prospect of rapid ECB hikes this year. For example, the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting was down to 55bps, down -2.5bps on the previous day. Interestingly though, the accounts from the ECB’s last meeting in April were published yesterday, which said that “A number of members noted that the decision was a close call and that they would not have opposed raising rates at the current meeting had this been on the table.” However, it ultimately said that “all members were willing to rally behind the decision to keep policy rates unchanged”, so long as the communication stressed a commitment to ensuring “that inflation stabilised at the target in the medium term.” Looking forward, markets continue to see an ECB rate hike in June as highly likely, priced as an 89% chance as of yesterday’s close, which would be their first hike since 2023.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the flash CPI prints for May from Germany, France and Italy, along with German unemployment for May. In the US, we’ll also get the advance goods trade balance for April. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, Schmid, Bowman, Paulson and Daly, the ECB’s Panetta, Radev and Muller, and BoE Governor Bailey.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 08:29

French FinMin "Vigilant" After Economy Unexpectedly Contracts In Q1

Zero Hedge -

French FinMin "Vigilant" After Economy Unexpectedly Contracts In Q1

“We remain vigilant, without giving in to being alarmist,” said French Finance Minister Roland Lescure on social media after the Gallic nation saw its economy unexpectedly shrink at the start of the year.

French gross domestic product fell 0.1% in the three months through March, the first quarterly contraction since the COVID pandemic, raising concerns over its resilience to the fallout from the Iran war.

Statistics office INSEE had initially reported zero growth for the quarter, but a sharper decline in consumer spending than expected was "an unpleasant surprise", said Dorian Roucher, the agency's head of forecasting.

He noted in particular "very bad figures for home renovations: it's rare to see this sector decline so much", Roucher told journalists, with overall construction spending down 1.7 percent.

Consumer spending overall was dented by the surge in fuel prices since the Iran war throttled Gulf oil and gas shipments, falling 0.2 percent after rising 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

Business investment fell 0.4%.

Trade made a negative contribution as exports dropped 3.5%.

"The recession risk is fairly high," said Mathieu Plane, director of the French Economic Observatory, calling the GDP reading "worrying".

As Bloomberg reports, the revision follows a series of indicators suggesting the euro area’s second-largest economy is increasingly hobbled by rising oil prices since the conflict in the Middle East erupted in late February.

Consumer confidence has dropped to the lowest in more than three years, business activity slumped in May and firms are increasingly planning to raise prices.

A separate report Friday from Insee showed household spending in April fell 0.5%.

FinMin Lescure claimed that the sluggishness at the start of the year was partly due to uncertainty over a delayed budget that had made businesses and households hesitant to invest.

However, INSEE's Roucher said that "the most likely scenario at this time is not a new GDP decrease", though he cautioned that "we can expect the shock to spread" throughout the economy.

France awaits Friday a sovereign credit review from Standard & Poor's, which cut its rating to A+ last October on risks that government spending would remain high.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 08:20

99% Of CEOs Are Planning AI Job-Cuts, As Gap Between Rich And Poor Continues To Explode

Zero Hedge -

99% Of CEOs Are Planning AI Job-Cuts, As Gap Between Rich And Poor Continues To Explode

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Our economy is being transformed at a faster pace than we have ever experienced before. Thanks to giant leaps in the field of artificial intelligence, human labor is not as valuable as it once was. All over the world, millions of human workers are being replaced and that trend is only going to accelerate. For those that have already retired or are on the verge of retirement, this isn’t that big of a deal. But for younger workers, this is absolutely terrifying. There is no loyalty in corporate America today. The moment that AI can do your job more efficiently than you can, you could be out the door. This is already happening at some of the biggest companies in the entire country. Good paying jobs are evaporating all around us, and as a result the gap between the wealthy and the rest of us is absolutely exploding.

I knew that the employment marketplace was changing really fast, but the results of a brand new survey that was just released still completely shocked me.

According to that survey, 99 percent of corporate executives are planning AI-related job cuts within the next 2 years…

A new study from consulting firm Mercer finds that virtually every employer is planning to cut jobs due to the technology (2). The 2026 Global Talent Trends report spoke with 825 C-suite leaders, along with 1,650 HR leaders, and a jaw-dropping 99% of the executives surveyed said they expect AI to lead to at least some headcount reduction in the next two years.

Nearly as many (98%) said they are also planning organization design changes in that same time period.

Meanwhile, just 32% of the CEOs surveyed said they believed the workforce can combine both human and machine worker capabilities in an optimal manner, despite just under two-thirds saying they felt that redesigning work to incorporate automation will drive the greatest return on investment.

If your job does not require much thinking or creativity, your job is potentially in danger.

Just look at what is happening at Meta. 1,400 highly paid workers in Washington state are about to get the axe…

Meta’s artificial intelligence overhaul is now hitting one of the country’s largest tech corridors, with the Facebook parent company preparing to cut nearly 1,400 workers across Washington state.

New filings submitted to Washington state officials show Meta will begin terminating employees in Seattle, Bellevue, Redmond and remote positions starting July 22 as the company restructures operations around AI initiatives.

The filings provide one of the clearest looks yet at how Meta’s broader workforce overhaul is affecting employees on the ground after the company announced plans last week to eliminate roughly 10% of its workforce while shifting thousands of workers into AI-focused roles.

Sadly, it isn’t just workers in Washington state that will be affected by the “artificial intelligence overhaul” that they have planned.

Overall, Meta is letting approximately 8,000 workers go in this latest round of layoffs…

Welcome to another day of corporate America hemorrhaging engineers and other white-collar workers with insurmountable student debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered in history as the great “white-collar purge,” and the response will be continued hatred of data centers.

We’ve been covering for weeks that today is D-Day for Meta Platforms employees, who have finally learned their employment fate at the company that owns Facebook and Instagram.

Bloomberg reports that the new round of layoffs affects roughly 8,000 roles globally, with engineering and product teams expected to be at the center of the cuts as CEO Mark Zuckerberg reduces labor in favor of GPUs.

In this environment, it doesn’t matter how hard you work or how much you have sacrificed for the company.

If those at the top think that they can make more money by squeezing you out, you will be gone.

PayPal is making plenty of money, but they are apparently looking at cutting one-fifth of their entire workforce…

PayPal is reportedly weighing cuts of up to 20% of its workforce as the payments giant ramps up cost-cutting efforts under new leadership.

The potential layoffs come as PayPal faces mounting pressure on profitability despite continued revenue growth.

Who is going to step up to replace the six figure jobs that are being lost?

Needless to say, the truth is that most of the good jobs that are disappearing are never going to be replaced, and that is just going to make the gap between the rich and the poor even worse.

Today we are living in a K-shaped economy, and even the Federal Reserve is admitting that this has resulted in “a remarkable increase in food insecurity”…

The so-called K-shaped economy is now linked to “a remarkable increase in food insecurity,” according to a new blog post by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Large segments of the population are facing high levels of financial strain, according to a post published on Wednesday, based on data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Among this group, lower- and middle-income households have been hardest hit by prolonged inflation. A greater share of their spending is allocated to goods that have seen prices soar since the pandemic, such as housing, food and utilities, causing them to cut back on groceries, the researchers found.

In this environment, tens of millions of Americans are skipping meals on a regular basis because they simply do not have enough money for groceries.

So if you always have plenty of food to eat, you should count your blessings.

In general, those over the age of 45 are doing fairly well.

But those that are age 45 or younger control just 11 percent of the nation’s wealth…

To paraphrase the late jazzman Mose Allison, young Americans ain’t got nothing in the world these days.

Americans ages 45 and under control only 11% of the nation’s wealth, according to household data from the Federal Reserve.

In other words, nine-tenths of America’s assets belong to the older half of America. People ages 45 and over make up about 42% of the nation’s population, and about 54% of the adults.

I was stunned when I saw those numbers.

There is a reason why Americans have never felt as bad about the U.S. economy as they do right now.

Mass layoffs are being conducted all over the country and the cost of virtually everything just keeps going up.

Thanks to the crisis in the Middle East, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has now reached $4.46…

Now, gasoline prices are also dragging down the lower prong of the K. The national average gasoline price reached $4.46 a gallon as of Wednesday, up about 40% from a year ago, according to AAA.

If the crisis in the Middle East is not resolved soon, things will get a lot worse.

And that is really bad news for people like 57-year-old Kris Massey that are barely scraping by each month…

Kris Massey stood at a jeweler’s counter last month, hoping to sell a couple of her grandmother’s gifted pieces to possibly cover some bills.

Even though Massey, a 57-year-old nurse practitioner, makes six figures a year, her financial situation has grown untenable. Years of fast-rising prices and a recent monthslong bout of unemployment had taken their toll.

She worked two jobs from 2012 to 2023, but a second job is not an option after an extensive back surgery. Her retirement was drained when she was out of work.

“I’m just trying to hang on,” she told CNN.

Can you imagine selling off your prize possessions just so that you can make it through another month?

This is the reality that we live in now.

For 51-year-old Bill Brantner, any extra spending at all has become a thing of the past…

For Brantner, there’s absolutely no wiggle room now.

There’s no discretionary spending – no movies, no restaurants, no driving around town, no new clothes, no new shoes; his coffee is whatever’s available in the breakroom; his bumper is strapped on with Gorilla Tape.

“If I sign a lease again, and they raise my rent again, I can’t do it; if they raise my insurance premiums again, I can’t do it,” Brantner said. “They have squeezed every drop of blood that there is to be squeezed out of this stone.”

Come next May, if his rent is hiked for a fifth consecutive year, he might have to resort to living in his car outside of Colorado Springs city limits, where sleeping in a vehicle isn’t illegal.

The U.S. economy has been in a state of decline for decades.

For a long time, our leaders tried to hide what was happening, but now the truth is becoming apparent to everyone.

Those at the very top of the economic pyramid are still thriving, but virtually everyone else is really struggling.

The middle class is being systematically dismantled and the ranks of the poor are rapidly growing.

I have been warning about all of this since the early days of the Obama administration, and now a time of reckoning is at hand.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 08:05

"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil

Zero Hedge -

"Approaching Unheard Of Inventory Levels": Exxon, Chevron Issue Apocalyptic Warning About What Happens Next To Oil

Just about two months ago, JPMorgan did the math on "How Long Before The World Hits Crude Oil Operational Minimum." The punchline was that while the market can hold hundreds of millions of barrels, it would still become fragile once working stocks fell too low. Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation. 

Then, approximately 4 weeks later, the bank followed up this analysis with some more math, explaining "Why Hormuz Will Reopen By September... One Way Or Another." The bank calculated that of the 8.4 billion barrels in global oil inventories at the start of 2026, only 0.8 billion barrels were realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress. Long story short (and the long story can be found here), OECD commercial stocks could fall to operational stress levels by June, and then hit the global operational floor by September if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, assuming demand destruction stabilized at 5.5 mbd (with oil prices paradoxically dropping since the last JPM article, demand destruction has actually slowed). 

Meanwhile, the biggest paradox during this period when the blocked Hormuz Strait meant that roughly 10 million barrels of oil wasn't reaching its intended destination each day, was that instead of prices going sharply higher to destroy demand, oil prices were actually dropping after peaking in late March and then again a month later, in effect incentivizing more demand. This prompted JPMorgan to published that "Something Is Off" With The Global Oil Math...

... and Goldman to follow up a few weeks later by observing that in May, global oil inventories plunged by a record 8.7 million barrels per day, with Hormuz still largely blocked.

And yet, oil prices are sharply lower in May, in no small part due to the daily market jawboning manipulation by various official and unofficial sources, who signal that an Iran deal is imminent... any minute now. 

Only it isn't, and while the market may prefer to shove its head in the sand, the biggest names in the room are no longer keeping quiet.

Today, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned oil prices are likely to rise over the next two months as already near record low crude inventories continue to decline due to the Iran war. 

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,” he said at a Bernstein conference on Thursday.

“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

Wirth’s comments follow a 10% fall in oil prices over the past week amid optimism that the US and Iran can agree a deal to end the three-month-long conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of crude flows. They highlight growing concern among economists that the war’s impact on energy prices will continue to be felt for many months after any deal is agreed to end it... not that that moment is even remotely close. The conflict has removed 12mn-13mn barrels of oil a day from global markets.

The comments by Wirth echo a growing chorus of warnings from other oil executives, including the head of the United Arab Emirates state oil group Adnoc, who cautioned last week that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were unlikely to return before next year even if the conflict is resolved.

“It will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027,” Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said during an Atlantic Council event on May 21.

Echoing JPMorgan's observations, Wirth said oil prices had not risen as much as people had expected due to higher-than-normal stocks of crude prior to the outbreak of the war, releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and flows of sanctioned oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. But he said these stocks were now running low. One wildcard is the rapid, yet very stealthy, drain of Chinese stocks, both commercial and strategic. With 1.4 billion in China's SPR, the moment of reckoning could be delayed yet again if Beijing decides to open the floodgates. 

Wirth also said the energy crisis would force governments to focus more on “an insurance policy” by building up oil reserves to insulate them from shocks such as the pandemic and wars in Iran and between Russia and Ukraine. “The likelihood that another shock is around the corner is something policymakers are going to have to bear in mind . . . how long they want to roll the dice before they refill inventories is a question that I think we’re going to see policymakers have to grapple with.”

“That’s going to put more demand into the market, which is going to put a bit of additional tension on the price,” he said.

The Chevron boss concluded by warning that damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East would cost tens of billions of dollars to repair, putting additional upwards pressure on prices. “If this goes on for long, it tips us into an economic slowdown or a recession, you might have an offset on the demand side, which you can’t rule out.”

But if Chevron was pessimistic, the company's biggest domestic competitor, Exxon, was downright apocalyptic. Speaking at the same Bernstein conference, Exxon SVP Neil Chapman had some truly horrifying remarks, certainly not something that Donald Trump would like to hear. We present them below.

Commercial inventories of crude oil, of liquids, think petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they've all run down. And running down those inventories has mitigated or offset, supplemented by the release of strategic petroleum reserves, which most of the Western countries have done. All of that has mitigated the impact. You can model this. We've modeled it. I think a lot of people in the industry have modeled it.

Nothing new here: we've discussed all this in the previous three months. But it is what he said next that was a moment of shocking insight into just how bad things are about to get: 

We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up. A model would say dated Brent will shoot up. Once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160.

The models would tell you that. And then what happens is when the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance. Prices go so high, it becomes unaffordable. And that's what happens. And so we're at that level right now.

Next, Chapman connected all the abovementioned dots: "I think crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 for the last whatever it is, six weeks, has really been mitigated by running down inventories. It can't last forever. So we'll see what happens.... predicting this and the exact timing, it's always a challenge. But that's the way we see the picture."

Putting all of the above in simple terms: by playing a jawboning game of cat and mouse with oil markets, the Trump administration is only draining stocks, both commercial and strategic, faster as consumers can afford to buy more, and they do. However, the supply sid of the pipeline remains blocked.

And until the war in Iran truly ends, and the Strait returns to normal transit, global inventories will continue to drain by about 10-14 million per day. Which is why when the operational floor is reached in less than three months, the resulting parabolic move in oil will be just as memorable as when it plunged deep into negative territory in April 2020 when traders were paying others any amount asked, to take physical oil off their hands. It will be just like that... only in reverse.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 08:00

Consumers Face Fiscal-Cliff As Tax-Refund Sugar-High Fades

Zero Hedge -

Consumers Face Fiscal-Cliff As Tax-Refund Sugar-High Fades

Nearly two months of the national average gasoline price exceeding the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level have left corporate America increasingly worried about consumer health this earnings season. Kraft Heinz's CEO warned that some households are "literally running out of money," while UBS analysts caution that even as the AI-linked chip and memory bubble inflates markets to new highs, there are growing "consumer cracks beneath the surface."

The Financial Times reports that U.S. consumers may face a cash crunch this summer as Trump-era tax refund tailwinds fade and Iran-related fuel shocks squeeze household budgets.

In other words, the sugar high is ending for consumers... 

Tax refunds averaging nearly $3,500 have largely helped keep spending resilient, with Walmart, Target, and Lowe's citing refund-driven support in recent earnings calls.

Some retailers warn that the boost is only temporary. Target said the tax-refund benefit will fade in the back half of the year, while Advance Auto Parts expects sales to slow as refund tailwinds disappear.

"They're literally running out of money at the end of the month," Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in a recent interview with the WSJ. "We're seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they're dipping into savings."

Earlier this month, we showed that personal spending growth far outpaced personal income.

... the personal savings rate has collapsed to a 3-year low.

PNC Bank analyst Brian LeBlanc noted, "One of the key reasons the economy has remained so resilient to higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and repeated shocks in recent years is that households have stayed in solid financial shape, allowing consumers to keep spending even as job and income growth has slowed."

"The tax refunds have been largely erased by the increase in Middle East price pressure," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, as the FT quoted. "The longer the conflict lasts, the more we move to an adverse scenario where inflation proves more persistent and erodes consumer spending growth."

UBS analyst Mark Paski commented on the FT article in a note titled "Consumer Cracks Beneath the Surface as Markets Push Higher."

Paski wrote: 

Consumer discretionary stocks rose 2.3% last week, but the equal‑weight consumer discretionary cohort has now broken below its Global Financial Crisis (GFC) lows, having previously held that level — underscoring a widening divergence beneath the surface.

At the same time, NDX logged its 15th all‑time high on Friday, while the S&P 500 is now on an eight‑week winning streak. At a high level, that backdrop suggests markets are on solid footing — but consumer‑linked signals are telling a very different story.

Over the weekend, the FT flagged risks of a potential "fiscal cliff" for consumers in the second half of 2026, as excess cash buffers from refunds begin to fade.

It remains tempting to revisit some of the more washed‑out names across the space, which could outperform if key headwinds — including interest rates, crude oil, and inflation sentiment — begin to show signs of peaking. That said, Friday's sharp move in Ross Stores (ROST), up ~8%, does not yet point to a broadening recovery across the group.

More broadly, parts of the consumer complex appear to be approaching a "terminal velocity," with dispersion still pronounced. Retailers are trading better today, but hardlines remain under meaningful pressure.

Recent commentary has not helped sentiment: several companies, including AutoZone (AZO), noted on recent conference calls that quarter‑to‑date (QTD) trends have shown little improvement versus the prior quarter, alongside headwinds from a colder‑than‑expected May.

Net, incoming data points and company commentary continue to reinforce the existing narrative, with little to force a shift in short positioning at this stage.

Signs of consumer stress are rising, with delinquencies climbing across credit cards, auto loans, and student loans, while lower-income households remain trapped on the wrong side of the K-shaped economy.

Taken together, the consumer cliff that the FT warns about will likely prompt the Trump team to ramp up its affordability agenda this summer as the midterms come into view.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 06:55

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning reads:

• One Million New-Car Buyers Are Gone and They’re Not Coming Back Soon: WSJ on the demand hole left by affordability — a million households permanently priced out of the new-car market. The structural part of the auto cycle that doesn’t show up in monthly SAAR. High gas prices, rising interest rates and stubborn inflation are keeping buyers at home and cars on the lots (Wall Street Journal)

• Henry Ford Upped Wages So Workers Became Consumers. The Rest Is History.: Barron’s on the actual economic logic behind Ford’s $5 day — turnover costs, not altruism — and how the story keeps getting retold in service of whatever today’s argument needs. Useful corrective. The decision helped create America as we know it today. (Barron’s) see also Why Costco pays $30/hr and Target doesn’t: A clean Substack post on the operating math behind Costco’s wage premium — turnover savings, throughput, member economics. Standard reading for anyone who keeps citing the model without understanding it. (Justin Kuiper)

• A Stock Certificate From 1941 Taught Me More About AI Than Anyone from OpenAI: A Substack riff using a 1941 stock cert as a way to think about durable franchises vs. narrative compression. Good Sunday reading for anyone trying to value the current cohort. (Apers Insights)

• The Midwestern Exodus Is Finally Ending: WSJ on Akron and the broader Rust Belt finally adding population again — remote work, housing arbitrage, returnees. The story underneath the next decade of regional politics. Longtime migration away from parts of Rust Belt starts to reverse; housing affordability is pull for metro areas like Akron, Ohio. (Wall Street Journal)

• The best analysts chew gum: A short Substack on the silly little focus rituals that actually move research productivity. Gum, walking, standing desks — the unsexy operational stuff that compounds. (OptimistiCallie)

• Is Peter Thiel the target of Pope Leo’s Gandalf quote? An investigation: Ars Technica doing exegesis on a single line in Magnifica Humanitas and asking whether the Vatican is now subtweeting tech-right billionaires. Probably yes. (Ars Technica)

• There’s a Simple Reason Why I’m Sure A.I. Won’t Achieve Consciousness: The individual pieces create a kind of illusion. (Slate)

• A $300-a-Month Gym Is Gen Z’s Social Club: Younger consumers in major cities are discovering more chances to find friends and romance in reformer classes, run clubs and spa-heavy gyms. (Bloomberg) see also Something Strange Is Happening at College Graduations Across the Country: Slate on the AI-titan commencement-speaker circuit getting booed off stages this season — and what the senior class’s mood signals about the labor market they’re walking into. (Slate)

• These Japanese Oyster Farmers Know How to Throw a Good Party, and Everyone Is Invited: There’s a phrase in Japanese, “waku waku,” that expresses a bubbling and happy excitement for something to come. At the train stations on the Itoshima Peninsula, this phrase seems to jump from the mouths of day trippers young and old. There’s a lot of anticipation for the day parties that they will join. It’s a short jog from the city of Fukuoka to visit the kakigoya. Buying directly from the farmers means that the oysters are fresh and the prices are low. A NYT travel piece on the Hiroshima oyster harvest festival. Genial, food-photo-heavy, exactly the palate cleanser this list needs. (New York Times)

• A sleep-time ‘sweet spot’ is linked to healthy aging, study finds: Turns out 6.4 to 7.8 hours of sleep a night might be ideal. Here are some tips on how to get the “just right” amount. WaPo on a new study putting the longevity sleep window at seven hours — not five, not nine. File under “things to actually do” rather than “things to read about doing.”(Washington Post)

Video of the day: How Pulp Fiction Was Filmed | Everything you didn’t know about Quentin Tarantino’s movie

Be sure to check out our special Masters in Business this week, Remembering Jonathan Clements with Bill Bernstein and Jason Zweig. The two recall Clements’ impact on the investor community; they discuss his posthumous book, “Money and Me.”


More ETFs Than Stocks

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Miniature Floating Nuclear Plants Could Supply Clean Power To Greek Islands

Zero Hedge -

Miniature Floating Nuclear Plants Could Supply Clean Power To Greek Islands

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

Miniature floating nuclear power plants (FNPP) could help Greek islands by supplying power, according to a new study. Such plants could also help decarbonize Greece's non-interconnected islands, according to the study by the Deon Policy Institute, ABS, Core Power, and Athlos Energy.

The concept of floating nuclear power plants is not new. (Representational image)

A floating nuclear power plant is a nuclear installation in which one or more reactors are integrated into a floating platform or vessel, designed to generate electricity, heat, and, in some cases, potable water through desalination. They are powered by Small Modular Reactors - smaller-capacity reactors designed to be manufactured as standardized units in factory settings and transported to their deployment sites, according to the study.

Floating Nuclear Power Plants' Deployment

Deon also highlighted that Greece's extensive coastline and archipelagic geography favor floating deployment, enabling generation near demand without permanent land use or competition with renewables, agriculture, or housing.

It's also claimed that FNPPs can replace oil-fired units on non-interconnected islands, support port electrification and coastal hubs without straining the grid, and offer relocation flexibility that limits long-term infrastructure lock-in.

Deon also emphasized that, as the world's leading maritime power, Greece has a unique comparative advantage. FNPPs leverage shipyard capacity and regulatory expertise, with approximately 75% of total value added associated with the Balance of Plant - areas where the Greek maritime-industrial base already possesses relevant capabilities.

The concept of floating nuclear power plants is not new - the Russian FNPP Akademik Lomonosov has been in commercial operation since 2019, and the sector shares a common technological and regulatory foundation with decades of naval nuclear propulsion experience in military submarines and surface vessels.

No Institutional Barriers Were Identified

"This study shows that FNPPs are not a distant or purely theoretical option for Greece. No fundamental technical or institutional barriers were identified. The real challenge is building the policy, regulatory, financial and social foundations needed for responsible assessment," said George Laskaris, president of the Deon Policy Institute.

It's also claimed that Greece's potential deployment of Floating Nuclear Power Plants (FNPPs) is increasingly viable but remains constrained more by institutional preparedness and political continuity than by technology.

The study claimed that the FNPP technology is considered mature and commercially credible rather than experimental. It also revealed that no major legal or regulatory barriers were identified, and low emissions and limited land use are significant but remain undercommunicated in public discourse.

"Initial findings shed important light on how FNPPs can be assessed and integrated within existing frameworks, a critical question as the industry moves toward practical deployment. The real challenge before us is integration into policy and regulatory frameworks, and ABS is committed to helping the industry navigate that path," said Patrick Ryan, ABS Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, in a statement ahead of next week's Posidonia conference in Athens.

Regulatory work remains to be done, and public acceptance must be secured, but otherwise, a floating nuclear plant could be in operation in Greece by 2035-40, according to Maritime Executive.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 06:30

South African Impeachment Committee To Hold First Meeting On President's "Farmgate" Scandal

Zero Hedge -

South African Impeachment Committee To Hold First Meeting On President's "Farmgate" Scandal

South Africa's parliament has scheduled for Monday the first meeting of an impeachment committee ​that will probe allegations around President Cyril Ramaphosa's "Farmgate" scandal, Reuters reported citing the Democratic Alliance ‌party. 

The meeting is the next stage in an impeachment process against Ramaphosa that was revived by the Constitutional Court this month, in a setback for the leader for whom the ​affair has been a major embarrassment during his presidency. 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa speaks to lawmakers in parliament, in Cape Town, South Africa, May 14, 2026

Ramaphosa has denied wrongdoing ​in the scandal, in which bundles of cash were stolen from ⁠a sofa on his farm in 2020, raising questions about where he had ​acquired the money and why it was hidden in furniture.

"The good thing is that ​parliament seems to be moving forward," said DA parliamentary leader George Michalakis.

The first order of business for the committee's 31 members will be to elect a chairperson, he said, adding: "The DA's strong ​opinion is that it shouldn't be someone from the ANC." The DA is the ​second-biggest party in a coalition government with Ramaphosa's African National Congress party, but the DA remains ‌critical ⁠of the president and has said it will hold him accountable for any findings of wrongdoing.

Ramaphosa on Tuesday filed a legal challenge against an independent panel report which found preliminary ​evidence he had ​committed misconduct, which ⁠some legal analysts said may delay the impeachment proceedings. The president has also threatened to seek an urgent court order to halt ​impeachment proceedings if parliament moves ahead with the process while ​his legal ⁠challenge is pending.

The ANC holds about 40% of seats in the National Assembly, which means it should be able to shoot down any eventual impeachment vote, which would require ⁠a ​two-thirds majority to pass. The party's leadership has ​said it fully backs the president. But the ANC holds only 9 seats out of 31 seats on the impeachment ​committee.

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 05:45

France To Reimburse Patients For Anti-Obesity Drugs

Zero Hedge -

France To Reimburse Patients For Anti-Obesity Drugs

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,

France is set to begin reimbursing severely obese people for the cost of weight-loss drugs, French Health Minister Stéphanie Rist said on May 28.

Wegovy at a pharmacy in London on March 8, 2024. Hollie Adams/Reuters

She said that Paris would subsidize the use of Danish company Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and American pharma giant Eli Lilly's Mounjaro from mid-June.

"I am quite proud, because we are the first country in the European Union to provide reimbursement ... on a permanent basis," Rist told French broadcaster TFI.

Officially, reimbursement will cover 65 percent of the cost of the weight-loss drugs, "but almost all patients will be covered" in full if they have "comorbidities, such as high blood pressure or diabetes," she said.

"For the vast majority, it will be 100 percent reimbursement," Rist added.

She said the eligibility criteria for the scheme would remain strict.

"It was decided to reimburse these medicines for people with severe obesity, with a body mass index above 35 with comorbidities, or above 40. These are people who may be candidates for surgery, for an operation to treat their obesity, and who will be able to receive these medicines if the doctor considers that they should be prescribed," Rist said.

She estimated the cost to French public finances at "around 100 million euros [$116 million] annually."

Elsewhere in Europe, though outside the EU, the UK and Switzerland both subsidize the use of similar weight-loss medications, known as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s).

GLP-1s are hormones produced naturally within the body that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite.

The UK's National Health Service (NHS) offers limited access to such drugs, with medications prescribed and a standard prescription fee of 9.90 pounds per item (about $13.26), or free, depending on the patient's circumstances.

In Switzerland, people who meet certain criteria are also eligible for reimbursement for the use of Wegovy under the government's mandatory health insurance scheme.

Further afield, Japan operates a scheme similar to Switzerland's, while Canada last month approved the sale of generic versions of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, paving the way for more widespread subsidized prescriptions for the medication. In Canada, the availability of subsidized Ozempic varies by province.

In the United States, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 1 that Medicare patients will soon be able to obtain coverage for weight-loss drugs for $50 per month.

Speaking at an event in Florida, Trump said coverage for weight-loss and diabetes medications will begin in July.

"Today, I'm thrilled to announce that starting on July 1, we will also provide Medicare patients with the coverage for weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, Zepbound, Wegovy," he said. "So if it was $1,300, now it's $50. And the $1,300 doesn't cover a whole month. So it's really even more than that. So it's now down to $50."

In December 2025, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a voluntary model known as Better Approaches to Lifestyle and Nutrition for Comprehensive Health to expand access to GLP-1 medications for weight management and metabolic health, allowing Medicare Part D plans and state Medicaid agencies to cover the drugs while negotiating lower prices.

The model, which would enable the CMS to negotiate directly with pharmaceutical companies for lower prices and standard terms of coverage, was initially expected to launch in January 2027, but officials said in April it would be delayed "pending further evaluation and data collection."

The CMS said in April that it would extend its bridge program, a short-term solution to provide eligible Medicare Part D beneficiaries with access to certain GLP-1 drugs, until December 2027.

Part D refers to the prescription drug benefit run by private insurers approved by Medicare. CMS stated on its website that the bridge program would "operate outside of the Medicare Part D benefit's coverage and payment flow."

Overweight people walk through the city center in Glasgow, Scotland, on Oct. 10, 2006. Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 05:00

Vance Says Trump Not Ready To Approve Iran Deal, Citing Distance On Nuclear Issue

Zero Hedge -

Vance Says Trump Not Ready To Approve Iran Deal, Citing Distance On Nuclear Issue Summary
  • Rtrs citing Iran's Fars: Iran's armed forces carries out a missile launch operation from southern regions of the country toward specified targets. Reports of US ships targeted (unconfirmed); also 'warning shots' fired on 'illicit' vessels.
  • Per Axios: "U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, but President Trump has yet to give it his final approval."
  • Unconfirmed reports of Ayatollah denial of MOU.
  • Saudi state media reports Pakistan is seeking to convince Washington to allow transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium to China (Al Hadath).
  • Iran launches ballistic missile on US base in Kuwait, which was reportedly intercepted by Kuwaiti forces.
  • Fresh launch is retaliation for prior evening's skirmish involving US intercepting Iranian drones, and targeting coastal launch location.
//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 42% · No 59%
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Vance says Trump Not Ready to Approve MOU with Tehran

Vice President J.D. Vance says that US President Trump is not yet ready to endorse the Iran agreement, but still noted that US and Iran made a lot of progress towards a ceasefire deal, according to AFP

The US and Iran remain at odds on uranium enrichment and stockpiles, he confirmed. And further:

US VP Vance says US and Iran are exchanging proposals regarding some drafting points including issue of enrichment, adds time is still early to know when an agreement with Iran will be reached and if it will happen at all

Reports of New Military Incident in Hormuz Strait

Following earlier reports of the US & Iran having tentatively reached a Memorandum of Understanding on 60-day truce for talks, and pending Trump's approval, there has been fresh Thursday night (local time) chatter out of Iran on potential fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel and US media correspondents have commented based on emerging accounts of Iranian sources: Iran has reportedly targeted American ships in Hormuz. Times of Israel writes:

The fresh fighting appeared to begin when Iranian forces fired at four ships attempting to cross the strait, state broadcaster IRIB reported on Thursday.

“Four vessels attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz and enter the Persian Gulf without coordination with the security forces,” IRIB posted on Telegram, saying the incident took place at around 12:35 a.m. local time. It did not provide details on the ships.

“They were warned, but after they ignored the warning, warning shots were fired at them, forcing them to return,” the broadcaster added.

And Reuters:

IRAN'S FARS: IRAN'S ARMED FORCES CARRIES OUT A MISSILE LAUNCH OPERATION FROM SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD SPECIFIED TARGETS

Israel's Channel 12 also cited Iranian 'opposition sources' to say that there was a missile launch observed near the city of Bushehr in southern Iran. If this fresh incident is confirmed, it would mark the third such clash between US and Iranian forces in the contested waters within just a couple days.

Some latest on MOU status:

Bessent: We are being Patient, & Strikes could Come Back Reports that Ayatollah has Not Accepted MOU

And very quickly on the heels of the Axios report, there chatter that the Iranian side has not actually approved:

Oil Tumbles on Reported MOU Breakthrough

Per Barak Ravid: "U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, but President Trump has yet to give it his final approval," two US officials have told Axios. This could be the hugest diplomatic breakthrough yet, after weeks of stalled talks, but it awaits President Trump's.

"U.S. officials said the deal terms were mostly agreed as of Tuesday, but both sides still needed to get approval from senior leadership," Axios notes by way of caveat. According to some emerging details from the report:

  • The U.S. officials claimed the Iranians later came back and said they had the necessary approvals and were prepared to sign. Iran has not confirmed that.
  • The U.S. negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the final deal and he asked to take a few days to think about it.
  • "The president relayed to the mediators that he wants a couple of days to think about it," a U.S. official said.

Key question: is Iran's high enriched nuclear material part of the MOU? This could put it in jeopardy.

Oil tumbles on the headline...

Uranium Transfer to China?

According to Saudi state-funded Al Hadath, Pakistan will present to the US the "transfer of Iranian uranium to Beijing under international supervision."

The report seems unlikely, given it is also worded in such a way as to suggest the scheme originates with Pakistan, as a desperate attempt to keep stalled talks alive. Tehran has never indicated it would contemplate sending its enriched uranium stockpile abroad, even to a 'friendly' nation. 

Iranian Launch on Kuwait

The government of Kuwait on Thursday has made clear it retains all rights to take measures to preserve its security, following a overnight Iranian missile strike. Kuwait's Foreign Ministry further condemned the fresh missile ⁠and drone ⁠attacks on its territory as ‌a serious escalation and "blatant violation of sovereignty and ⁠security." The Iranian launch, which Tehran says targeted a US base in Kuwait, came in response to US bombardment of an Iranian drone base near the southern city of Bandar Abbas which occurred just prior.

via Associated Press

In a new statement, US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirms that "At 10:17 p.m. ET on May 27, Iran launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces."

"This egregious ceasefire violation by the Iranian regime occurred hours after Iranian forces launched five one-way attack drones that posed a clear threat in and near the Strait of Hormuz," the US military statement continued.

"All drones were successfully intercepted by U.S. forces which also prevented a sixth drone launch from an Iranian ground control site in Bandar Abbas," it added. "U.S. Central Command and regional partners remain vigilant and measured as we continue to defend our forces and interests from unjustified Iranian aggression."

Additionally, the Gulf statement strongly condemned the fresh Iranian attack, with the head of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi, denouncing it as follows: "The secretary-general pointed out that the continuation of these treacherous attacks is a flagrant violation of the principles of international law, the Charter of the United Nations, and the principles of good neighborliness." The GCC statement added: "His excellency affirmed the GCC countries’ full support for the state of Kuwait in all measures it takes to preserve its security and stability, and the safety of its citizens and residents,"

A separate statement from Saudi-led Gulf allies further condemned the act of 'terrorism' - per Al Aljazeera:

The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have condemned a missile attack on a US airbase in Kuwait with only the UAE expressly naming Iran as responsible for the “terrorist attacks”.

In statements shared on social media, the foreign ministries of the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia said they consider the attack “a flagrant violation” of Kuwait’s sovereignty, and expressed their countries’ “full solidarity” with Kuwait and “support for all measures” it takes to preserve its sovereignty, security and stability.

Two US-Iran Clashes Incidents This Week

This marks the second live-fire attack flare-up this week, after earlier Wednesday Iran fired drones on American and other foreign commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

"American F/A-18, F-16 and F-35 jet fighters shot down the drones, then the F/A-18s hit the ground-control unit before it could launch a fifth drone, one of the officials said," The Wall Street Journal summarizes of that first incident.

State TV released video of the ballistic missile launch targeting a US base in Kuwait:

Stalemated Talks Hung Up on Nuclear Issue

It seems that Iran is asserting some red lines through single, sporadic attacks, when it perceives a US military violation of its sovereignty. WSJ cites the following:

The spokesman for the National Security Commission in Iran’s parliament said Trump’s unwillingness to acknowledge that the U.S. and Tehran were still at war was a sign of his weak negotiating position. "Diplomats should not let go of the enemy’s weak point and should impose maximum demands on them," the spokesman said.

Currently, negotiations are still primarily stuck on the nuclear issue. President Trump has vowed not to let off sanctions pressure until Tehran agrees to dismantle its nuclear program by handing over highly enriched uranium to be transferred off its territory. Iranian officials say this simply will not happen, and that it would be tantamount to handing over the country's sovereignty. Tehran has insisted the nuclear file must be dealt with after the war is over, and later on down the line.

More Latest Developments

Round-up via Newsquawk...

  • US official said US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • IRGC said it targeted the US air base in response to the US aggression earlier near Bandar Abbas Airport, according to Tasnim. said:. Any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response. Washington bears responsibility for consequences.
  • Military source tells Tasnim that hours ago, a US oil tanker intended to cross the Strait of Hormuz by turning off radar system, but IRGC Navy fired at it and forced it to turn back, while US army fired into Bandar Abbas but caused no damage. This was the cause of the earlier reported explosions. No casualties or damages were caused by the US, which fired at a scorched-earth area.
  • Iran's Navy forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots, according to Tasnim.
  • Sound of three explosions heard from the east of Bandar Abbas, Iran, with exact location and source of the sounds still unclear, while air defences were activated for a few minutes, according to Fars News Agency.
  • "Hearing the sound of multiple explosions in Kuwait", ISNA reported, "Kuwait’s official news agency stated that air defense systems are currently countering missile and drone attacks" [likely referring to earlier reported].
  • Air raid sirens sounding in Kuwait, while Kuwaiti Army said air defense intercept hostile missile and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.
  • Commentary
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Gulf Strait Authority action targets Hormuz tolls, adds the Treasury is maintaining maximum pressure on Iran.
  • Iranian National Security Council Official Bagheri said Iran’s assets must be released unconditionally, Tasnim reported.
  • US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions by adding Persian Gulf Strait Authority to its SDN list.
  • US has carried out a defence operation in Bandar Abbas, Iran, according to Faytuks Network citing an official that said, “the US will act to safeguard its regional interests, and this does not affect the ceasefire”.
  • Iran Supreme National Security Council Deputy Secretary Baqeri met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, and discuss a number of important issues on the current international agenda with focus on the situation around Iran's nuclear program. Via IRNA/Telegram.
  • Deputy Head of Public Relations for the IRGC Aerospace Force, Ali Naderi, said on Wednesday If enemies launch military action again, the Islamic Republic's response will be different from anything seen so far. said: "...they will face a new image of Iran".
  • Head of Iranian Parliament National Security Committee said Iran will not be pushed back by US President Trump's rhetoric from its red lines: rights to enrich uranium and its possession, authority over the Strait of Hormuz and removal of sanctions.
  • IRIB reporter said no signs of an explosion have been seen in Bandar Abbas, while some people have heard the sound of this explosion and none of the officials concerned about the matter have issued any official statement.
  • Axios reported that US military had shot down 4 Iranian drones targeting ships and an Iranian drone launcher on the ground.
  • Israeli fighter jets carry out attack on the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon, according to Mehr News Agency.
  • Hamas spokesperson said the Gaza ceasefire agreement faces risk of collapse due to occupation's crimes and ongoing violations, Al Jazeera reported.
  • IDF said it's striking Hezbollah infrastructure in the area of Tyre in southern Lebanon.
Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 04:44

Canadian Government Is Crushing Indie Media With Two Sneaky Policies

Zero Hedge -

Canadian Government Is Crushing Indie Media With Two Sneaky Policies

Canada is not only going the way of Europe with the country's draconian speech laws, it is in many ways surpassing the suppression and censorship across the Atlantic.  The speed at which the population is being robbed of their freedoms is staggering, and much of this is being done through backdoor bureaucracy.  

One factor that consistently frustrated the globalist Trudeau regime during the pandemic lockdowns was the Canadian public's access to national and international independent media.  Even with political leaders working directly with social media giants to censor users, truthful data outside of the institutional filters was still being effectively spread by alternative journalists and news sites. 

This ultimately led to a large enough backlash in Canada and the US that eventually, covid mandates had to be abandoned.  Indie journalists were central to the effort to expose pandemic fallacies promoted by politicians as "science". 

It would seem that in Canada, the elites are quickly working to close that loophole. 

Mere proximity to the US makes censorship projects more difficult for the Canadian government, though incrementalism is well underway and "hate speech" laws in Canada are used on occasion to silence dissent, specifically on transgender issues.  But officials are utilizing two sneaky policies as a way to subvert indie media outlets without directly shutting them down. 

The first policy is the Canadian Online News Act passed in 2023.  This bill was presented as a way to force Big Tech intermediaries like Google and Facebook to share profits they derive from the flow of content created by mostly smaller digital media providers (indie media).  It requires large online platforms to compensate Canadian news outlets for making their content available—through links, snippets, sharing, or search results.      

The Act argues that platforms benefit from news content (driving engagement and traffic) without fairly sharing value with creators. It's supposed aim is to sustain journalism, especially local and independent outlets. 

However, the opposite has happened.  Big Tech companies are blocking Canadian media instead, making it difficult or impossible to maintain traffic to their websites.  Google has cut a $100 million deal to avoid settlements with individual outlets, but once it is spread out, this money is nowhere near enough to make up for the ad revenues losses they face.

Larger corporate media outlets are able to survive because they have the money to advertise and generate their own views.  Indie outlets rely on word of mouth and link sharing, which is now being eliminated because of government regulation.

The second policy which is crushing indie media in Canada is the use of government subsidies as a designator for "official journalism".  

Two major federal departments - Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and Global Affairs Canada (GAC) - have quietly updated their media accreditation policies to prioritize or limit government responses to journalists.  Canadian bureaucrats are increasingly restricting which outlets they will talk to and will only work with those designated as Qualified Canadian Journalism Organizations (QCJO). 

QCJO is a government program (administered by the Canada Revenue Agency) tied to tax credits and subsidies for journalism and it's linked to broader media support efforts, including overlapping with the Online News Act.  

To put it plainly, government institutions in Canada are saying that only certain media outlets that receive subsidies are considered "real news".  Eligible outlets get favored access to officials and information.  In other words, the government decides who is a journalist and who is not.

Backlash forced the government to back-peddle and clarify that QCJO status is strictly for tax/funding eligibility and not a press pass or accreditation tool to determine who qualifies as a "legitimate" journalist.  Critics argue, though, that the framework for this government filter is still in place even if they are not currently using it. 

If subsidies become a press pass, then only government funded and controlled media outlets will be able to operate in the Canadian system. 

One might question why anyone outside of Canada should care about how they regulate or manipulate their news platforms.  After all, Canada is a tiny country their impact on the rest of the west is minimal.  But this is a short-sighted way of thinking. 

It might be wiser to look at Canada as a kind of political petri dish; a beta test for regulations and controls that are likely to be tried in other countries in the near future.  Canada enforced some of the most stringent and authoritarian covid mandates of any western nation (except perhaps Australia and New Zealand).  Though this ultimately failed, it still shows that globalists view Canada as a testing ground. 

Today, the top goal of far-left governments is clearly the sabotage of independent media.  They've realized that they cannot assert dominance in other areas of life without first fully silencing free media.         

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 04:15

Leak Exposes Germany Forcing Social Media To Boost State Propaganda, Bury Dissent

Zero Hedge -

Leak Exposes Germany Forcing Social Media To Boost State Propaganda, Bury Dissent

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

European elites are reeling from the information revolution they failed to suppress. A fresh leak exposes Germany’s state media regulators plotting a new law to compel social media platforms to automatically boost “reliable” and “trusted” mainstream outlets in their algorithms.

Sold as a defense of “media plurality” against disinformation, this scheme reveals the ugly truth: after brute-force censorship ignited a global backlash and helped propel Elon Musk’s purchase of X, authorities are now seeking to engineer the feeds themselves to favor their approved narratives while sidelining dissent.

This marks a shift from overt suppression to insidious manipulation. What began as panic over losing control has evolved into calculated digital gerrymandering. The awakening—fueled by years of heavy-handed crackdowns—created demand for uncensored spaces. Now, unable to fully extinguish that flame, regulators aim to starve alternative voices of oxygen through algorithmic favoritism.

The internal strategy paper from Germany’s Landesmedienanstalten, the network of state media authorities, outlines plans for a Digital Media State Treaty. It would grant automatic algorithmic preference to selected outlets.

The document remains in preparatory stages but is slated for presentation to politicians imminently. Thorsten Schmiege, head of the regulators and Bavaria’s media authority president, indicated a first draft could arrive this summer.

Critics rightly note the core problem: who defines “reliable” and “trusted”? The same state bodies entangled with public broadcasters that have repeatedly demonstrated bias. This isn’t about plurality; it’s about preserving a monopoly on public discourse as legacy media hemorrhages trust and audience.

Mike Benz, former State Department cyber official and vocal critic of censorship regimes, highlighted the international stakes in a pointed post reacting to the leak. He warned that dozens of other countries are watching closely to see if Germany can get away with it.

Benz stressed the need for visible US retaliatory threat or diplomatic intervention, stating that without it, “you will not believe the speed at which this cancer will spread.” He urged nipping this in the bud by whatever diplomatic, economic, or sanctions means are necessary.

This proposal doesn’t emerge in isolation. It builds directly on the patterns of escalating control seen across Europe. The EU’s “Democracy Shield” and broader Digital Services Act framework already pressure platforms into systemic content demotion under the guise of risk assessments.

Those tools have chilled speech across the continent. Germany’s move represents the next logical escalation: not just removing content, but ensuring state-aligned sources dominate what users actually see.

The EU’s €140 million fine slapped on X for alleged transparency violations formed part of a sustained assault. Musk responded forcefully, pointing to EU commissars’ role in stifling debate that could have mitigated Europe’s self-inflicted wounds.

That fine wasn’t about protecting users—it was punishment for refusing to play ball with narrative gatekeepers.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s calls for draconian measures and a full ‘Ministry of Truth’ apparatus further illustrate the continental appetite for control.

In the UK, London Mayor Sadiq Khan has pushed for a dedicated government disinformation unit, while the Online Safety Act has emerged as a comprehensive censors’ charter.

These developments show how temporary “emergency” powers metastasize into permanent architecture for managing reality.

The Digital Leviathan rose precisely to handle challenges like mass migration criticism and policy failures that elites preferred to keep hidden.

When combined with this algorithmic favoritism, the strategy becomes clear: starve challengers of reach while subsidizing compliant voices through forced visibility.

And then there are also punishments ready, such as debanking, to discourage journalists from stepping outside the approved thresholds.

Barack Obama’s infamous suggestion of a social media Ministry of Truth feels less like hyperbole and more like prophecy when viewing these coordinated efforts.

The backfire was predictable. Heavy censorship created martyrs, exposed hypocrisy, and drove users toward platforms prioritizing free expression. Musk’s acquisition of X exemplified this shift. Now, regulators adapt by gaming the very recommendation systems that exposed their weaknesses.

Advocates for this German law claim it counters “disinformative, polarizing” content. Yet the track record of the “trusted” outlets they seek to elevate undermines that claim entirely. The BBC provides a textbook case, with scandals ranging from manipulated editing exposed in the looming Trump lawsuit to further outrageous actions that continue to erode public confidence.

Public broadcasters aren’t neutral arbiters; they’re funded arms of the establishment view.

Germany’s own state media offers equally damning examples, including the fake AI-generated clip of ICE troops arresting a migrant family and systematic slander campaigns against figures like Charlie Kirk after his assassination.

These aren’t isolated lapses but symptoms of systemic narrative enforcement. When public funding meets ideological capture, journalism dies and propaganda thrives.

This aligns with long-standing critiques: legacy outlets function as extensions of the information state. Their declining relevance stems not from competition alone but from audiences recognizing the disconnect between reported reality and lived experience—particularly on immigration, economics, and cultural transformation.

Boosting them algorithmically won’t restore credibility; it will only highlight their dependence on artificial life support.

Parallel to algorithmic rigging, direct assaults on X continue under familiar banners. UK government schemes to restrict or shutter the platform over Grok’s humorous roasts, alongside outright ban threats, expose the cynicism.

Official claims of “protecting children” crumble under scrutiny, as these efforts target political speech far more than genuine safeguarding.

Spain’s far-left coalition similarly floated limitations, revealing a broader European discomfort with unmoderated conversation.

These pretexts enable deeper control. EU chat control proposals threaten end-to-end encryption, effectively ending private digital communication.

UK moves toward mandatory digital IDs with biometric tracking, combined with age verification theater, form pieces of a surveillance mosaic.

Government censorship of the internet is worse than ever in the UK, with the disinfo unit shifting focus from lockdown skeptics to mass migration critics.

Authoritarianism arrives not with tanks but with logins and compliance portals.

Germany stands at the forefront of this crackdown. Courts contemplating speaking bans against prominent politicians, alongside convictions of ordinary citizens for blunt criticism—like a pensioner penalized for calling a Green minister an “idiot”—signal a nation abandoning its post-war free speech commitments.

This environment makes the algorithmic proposal even more sinister. When the state already criminalizes mild dissent, empowering it to curate digital visibility creates a closed loop of approved thought. Independent voices face compounded marginalization online.

The German initiative forms part of a continent-wide offensive against digital liberty. These measures share a common thread: elites viewing open information flows as existential threats rather than democratic necessities. The result is a managed internet where “safety” justifies surveillance and “plurality” means enforced uniformity.

Thankfully, pushback is mounting. Concepts for a genuinely censorship-resistant internet—emphasizing decentralization, open protocols, and user sovereignty—offer technical pathways beyond centralized control. Legal and political pressure remains essential.

The Trump administration has signaled zero tolerance for European overreach. America stands ready to smash these UK and EU internet crackdowns.

Considerations of travel bans targeting officials enforcing speech restrictions, and actual entry prohibitions against anti-free-speech globalists demonstrate leverage available to free societies.

These actions protect not just American platforms but the principle of open discourse worldwide.

The ultimate solution lies in rejecting the premise that information must be managed by self-appointed State guardians. Platforms succeeding through transparency and user choice expose the fragility of legacy models. Citizens increasingly demand accountability: defund captured public broadcasters, enforce viewpoint neutrality where subsidies exist, and prioritize constitutional protections over bureaucratic comfort.

Continued overreach will accelerate the very trends regulators fear. Each attempt at algorithmic rigging further erodes trust, driving innovation toward decentralized alternatives and reinforcing public skepticism.

The information awakening wasn’t a temporary glitch—it represents a fundamental realignment toward truth over narrative. Musk’s X stands as proof: refusing to bend created the space for genuine debate that elites now scramble to recapture through backdoor algorithmic controls.

Europe’s elites face a choice: adapt to a world where ideas compete freely or double down on control and risk greater backlash. The battle for the digital public square will define the coming decade.

Platforms and citizens prioritizing unfiltered exchange hold the advantage, provided they maintain vigilance against these evolving threats—from the German proposal and EU Democracy Shield to UK child protection pretexts and domestic speech prosecutions.

Free societies thrive on open debate, not engineered consensus. The push to game algorithms in favor of propaganda houses won’t save failing narratives; it will only hasten their irrelevance while empowering alternatives rooted in user trust and technological freedom.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 03:30

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