At The Money: Grab Your Summer Rental Soon!! (June 3, 2026)

It’s not too late to get your summer rental! But many of the prime locations have already been snapped up. If you want to get to the lake, beach, or mountains, you’d better hurry!

Full transcript below.

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About this week’s guest:

Jonathan Miller is a partner at Street Matrix, founder and President of Miller Samuel. His weekly Housing Notes are read widely throughout the Real Estate industry.

For more info, see:

Miller Samuel Bio

LinkedIn

Twitter

 

Previously:
At The Money: Buying a Vacation Home (June 19, 2025)

At the Money: The Best Way to Buy a House Right Now (November 15, 2023)

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Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg.

And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

At the Money — Summer Rentals
Barry Ritholtz with Jonathan Miller

 

Intro:
I’m gonna soak up the sun
I’m gonna tell everyone to lighten up
I’m gonna tell ’em that I’ve got no one to blame

 

Barry Ritholtz: Memorial Day weekend has come and gone, but if you’re thinking about getting a place for the summer, you better get a move on it. There’s still inventory around, but a lot of the prime spots, they’re already spoken for. I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s At the Money, we’re going to talk about summer beach rentals. Renting, buying, what’s hot, what’s not.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your tan lines, let’s bring in Jonathan Miller. He’s the director of markets for Street Matrix and co-founder of Miller Samuel. His market reports cover all sorts of summer and beach-related areas, including the Hamptons, the North Fork, the Jersey Shore, all along the rest of the country that has an active vacation property.

So, Jonathan, before we get into the details, let’s start really broad. What does the summer rental market tell us about the broader real estate market?

Jonathan Miller: Well, I think it’s a matter of consumption spending. When the economy’s doing well, they see beach rentals as another commodity that they can buy. I grew up in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, which was the Hamptons of Washington, DC. It was nicknamed the Summer Capital. And the hotel occupancy—my dad had a hotel there—you could see it fluctuate depending on how well the economy was doing in DC itself. It was quite direct.

Barry Ritholtz: Around here, the Hamptons gets all the attention, and obviously there’s a lot of celebrity and a lot of media out there. But what do you see in other markets like the Berkshires, the Great Lakes, Mountain destinations, Cape Cod? What else is interesting?

Jonathan Miller: So the way I think of it is that, just in the real estate or the housing market itself, there’s this sort of bias towards the higher end. I don’t mean the very, very top of the market. But the more affluent somebody is, the more likely they are to go to one of these vacation spots.

With rising interest rates, that’s making home ownership for primary residences more expensive. That’s reducing traffic to locations that are more dependent on working- and middle-class consumers.

I look at it as there’s been this sort of change in the way consumers are thinking about summer rentals. And a broker, a friend of mine out in the Hamptons, gave me a name for it. It’s called Amazonified—

Barry Ritholtz: Appified?

Jonathan Miller: Amazonfied, which is people are more inclined… Hey, listen, you run out of mouthwash, you just open your phone and you order it, right? You want a summer rental, you just open your iPhone and you start looking at it. And there’s an understanding that you can get it at the last minute.

When my parents used to have a home on Shelter Island in the Hamptons, basically if you weren’t rented for the season by February, then it was kind of a failure, or it was an underwhelming performance. Now it’s last minute. And so one piece of evidence of this was that there was a noticeable uptick in traffic after Memorial Day, which would historically be when the market’s over. And there’s also a lot of thought that that’s going to be the same story after July 4th, which is the last marker for the beginning of the rental season. I think coming out of the pandemic, the orientation towards last minute is a structural change that’s going to be with us indefinitely.

Barry Ritholtz: It’s funny you say that. My experience with Fire Island during grad school was you would put together a share house in October. Like, February is way late. Like October, November for the following Memorial Day.

And I look at a website like Out East—4,500 Hamptons rentals available, including 1,077 in East Hampton, 889 in Southampton, active listings still available for June, July, August through Labor Day, short-term or full season.

This isn’t so much an economic indicator as it is just an app-ified world. We’re just used to everything on demand. Order a movie on demand, order toothpaste on demand, order a summer beach house on demand?

Jonathan Miller: I think that’s the way to think of it. And what’s interesting is, on one hand there’s inventory available, a fair amount of inventory. Part of that is because during the pandemic we had rental property that had annually been traditional rental property. That was all purchased, and so now we have a new universe of renters that are effectively early or recent home buyers. And so we have a whole new market developing.

But I do think there’s going to be absorption of a lot of inventory over the next, call it, month. But the way to think about the market is rents are still on the high side, but not at record levels. Rents are returning to pre-pandemic levels.

I don’t know if we could call it normalizing. You know, the old joke—what does normal mean anymore? But it doesn’t seem to be the frenetic or frenzied environment that it’s been. I don’t know if you could use the word deals, really, but it’s certainly an expensive market still.

Barry Ritholtz: So I know what a data wonk you are. How do you think about summer rentals? Are these luxury goods, housing substitutes, or even a leading economic indicator?

Jonathan Miller: So I see this as just another form of consumption, a luxury good. I don’t see it as an economic indicator, because where the demand is emanating from is probably already the economic indicator to focus on. This is just an extension of it, as opposed to its own independent thing telegraphing where the economy’s going.

A lot of the Hamptons, or East End, demand has been possible from a pretty good bonus season the last couple of years. Compensation is certainly elevated. But even with that, it’s showing that it’s not sold out, or rented out.

I think it’s a combination of people waiting till the last minute and the market not being as intense or frenzied as we’ve been used to over the last two or three years. It’s not a weak market. It’s more normalizing, I think, is a fair description.

Barry Ritholtz: I think of the overall consumer economy as very much K-shaped. There’s the upper—pick a number, 1, 10, 15%—and then there’s everybody else. It’s really bifurcated. Are we seeing something similar? Strong luxury demand, perhaps some softness in the middle or bottom of the rental market?

Jonathan Miller: Absolutely. I think that’s a very fair description of what rental markets are generally looking like. They’re an extension of the primary markets, and the primary markets are generally—call it the upper half is faring better than the lower half—only because of less reliance on interest rates, and also maybe more dependence on the performance of the financial markets.

Barry Ritholtz: So all right, we’re spending a lot of time talking about Wall Street bonuses and the Hamptons. What about the rest of the country? What about mountain destinations, the Sun Belt, California, lake communities? There’s so much more to a holiday or vacation property beyond the East End of Long Island.

Jonathan Miller: Yeah, although if you’re in Long Island and are on the East End, I think that’s all you see.

That’s all that matters, at least when I was out there a couple weeks ago. I think with all the uncertainty in the economy, economic uncertainty, it’s a little surprising to see normalized second-home market activity, but it’s really skewing, again, like the Hamptons. I don’t think the Hamptons is performing any differently than most second-home markets. I remember during the housing bubble build-up, it seemed like everybody I knew had a modest-priced second home in New Hampshire or Vermont. And they would go there on weekends, spend their summers there.

I don’t think you’re seeing as much of that as you have in the past, because a lot of that is mortgage-rate sensitive. I think you’re seeing, whatever region of the country, this sort of—I don’t know if I’d call it bias, but you’re seeing activity skewing a little bit higher than the middle of the market.

Barry Ritholtz: So what does that mean for different regions? Let’s talk about the Berkshires, or I know people who were in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, where it’s so hot in the summer they like to go to San Diego, La Jolla, Southern California, where it’s 75-80 and sunny during the day and 65 and delightful at night. What are you seeing in other regions?

Jonathan Miller: I don’t mean to be a broken record, but I’m seeing something very similar. It’s this idea that consumers are going to the traditional second-home locations that are linked to their markets—like you were describing, people leaving Texas in the summer. We’re seeing all that. It’s confusing in a way, because we’re getting so much bad take about what’s going on in the economy, inflation, and yet we’re still seeing this activity.

What’s a little different about it is that across the US it’s not really frenzied at all. It’s just active. Pricing is not as high as it’s been, but you still see a fair amount of activity. It’s just not some sort of insane frenzy that we’ve been going through for the last three or four years.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned mortgage rates earlier. I’m curious—obviously mortgage rates have an impact on price, and vice versa, but what does that mean for renters? Especially in a market where so many of the buyers seem to be straight-up cash buyers.

Jonathan Miller: The higher the interest rates, the higher the rent, is the way I look at it. And the reason for that is you have people that are on the fence about buying a second home. But they’re concerned about whether they’re going to get their price, so they’re renting it out, maybe to the same people every season, and that reduces inventory, which puts at least stabilizing or higher price pressure on rents. So I don’t see this as… When rates rise, I think that’s just going to make it more difficult, whether to purchase a second home or to rent one, because it just pushes everything up.

Barry Ritholtz: So I’m curious. You’re implying that people who might be buyers one day are sort of putting a toe in the water with renting. Is this a fairly common process? People rent, they like an area, and then they buy over there. Is that fair?

Jonathan Miller: Yes, I think that’s fair. The idea is that you test out the market for a summer, or for a month, or for a couple of weeks and see if you really like it, versus just driving there or flying there for the weekend.

And that is the nature of second-home markets. They move a lot slower. The second-home market for California is Idaho, Wyoming. You don’t just go there for the weekend—You’re going to test it out, maybe take a year or two. We see that all the time—friends of mine that have rented for a few years.

My parents went through this with their rental property in Shelter Island. After a couple seasons, the tenants that they loved ended up buying the house down the street, just because they loved the area.

Barry Ritholtz: So one of the things I’m astonished about—and again, my frame of reference is the Hamptons, where our vacation property is—but I am seeing an astounding amount of construction. Any house that’s sold is either, if it’s turnkey, it sells quickly, and if it’s not, it’s knocked down and a 7,000-foot behemoth gets put up in its place. West Hampton, Sag Harbor, East Hampton, Sagaponack—wherever I go out there, it’s shocking, the degree of construction. Every builder, every contractor seems to be fully booked.

What is driving this? Is this specific to the New York bonus season, Wall Street bonuses? Or are you seeing this around the country in other ritzy vacation areas?

Jonathan Miller: We are seeing this around the country. I think the easiest cause and effect is the Wall Street compensation picture of the last couple of years that’s really driving it.

Having been out to the Hamptons a couple times in the recent month or two—they call it the trade parade, right? All the trades coming in early in the morning and then leaving before rush hour.

Barry Ritholtz: By trades you mean, you mean plumbers, electricians, tilers…

Jonathan Miller: And it’s just the traffic— yeah, electricians, roofers, builders. It’s unbelievable.

So residents there plan their day around when they can leave and come back, because—as they call it, the Trade Parade—is so incredible. And the challenge is that those workers really are stuck in two- or three-hour traffic jams, which is a real challenge. But there’s so much demand for their services, and they can’t afford to live there, so they’re coming from a good distance away.

Barry Ritholtz: Well, that’s why they start at 7:00 and leave at 3:00. That makes a lot of sense.

We’ve seen the real estate market sort of normalizing after COVID. Certainly the reactions are less frenzied than they were during the pandemic. Has COVID permanently reset prices and house-buyer behavior and even expectations?

What’s the lasting impact of the pandemic on the summer vacation market?

Jonathan Miller: So I think structurally, COVID has changed—and probably extended—the use of second homes, because of things like Zoom. But it’s also become a little less predictable because of, as I mentioned earlier, the Amazonification of demand. Everything is sort of last minute, as opposed to relying on tried-and-true forecasting patterns.

But it’s a market that is going to be tested. The weaker the economy, the weaker the demand for second-home markets. But they don’t flip on and off. There’s still a base level of demand. The problem is that the demand is coming from a skewed portion of the population—upper half versus lower half is the way I prefer to think of it—and that creates a sort of void in the demand needed for more modest-priced second-home housing.

Barry Ritholtz: You know, we talk about the Hamptons as a second-home vacation market. There’s a $2.5 million rental there for the season, which I find astounding. But if you can’t afford that, maybe you pay a million and a quarter for the month of July, or a million for August. Now, to be fair, that $2.5 million rental does come with both a chef and maid service. So you get a lot of services for your money.

Jonathan Miller: Yes.

Barry Ritholtz: And I am not joking, because I have—like you, I am a Zillow lurker, and I look at all this crazy stuff.

Jonathan Miller: Yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: So to sum up: all right, you missed Memorial Day, but there’s still a lot of summer left. And if you’re thinking about a house on the lake, a house up in the mountains, maybe by the beach, there’s still some inventory left—but you better get a move on it, and you better start working on that tan. Please use SPF. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: Grab Your Summer Rental Soon Now! appeared first on The Big Picture.

The post The Trumpers Are Taking Over the Media: We Can Do Something Other than Whine appeared first on CEPR.

My morning Montreal reads:

• Shorting SpaceX? Jefferies Becomes Go-To Bank After IPO Miss:  It’s the kind of look that ambitious investment bankers usually strive to avoid: When SpaceX named the roughly two dozen firms handling its IPO, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. was conspicuously absent. But behind the scenes, bearish investors and some of Jefferies’ own bosses see that as a unique opportunity. (Bloomberg)

• Who Let the Professors Out? Inside CFM: The $27bn quant on Paris’ Left Bank: Stock markets are surging, and momentum is rampant. It made me think of CFM wizard Jean-Philippe Bouchaud who believes that it is fund flows that drives markets and not fundamentals. (Rupak’s Substack) see also Transcript: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Founder/Chief Scientist, Capital Fund Management co‑founder, chair & head of research/chief scientist atCapital Fund Management (CFM). The $20 billion firm started in 1991 specializing in managed futures and now runs futures and multi-strategy programs. He began his career in theoretical physics, was awarded the IBM Young Scientist Prize (1990) and the C.N.R.S. Silver Medal (1996), and has published over 300 scientific papers and several books in physics and finance. (The Big Picture)

• The triumph of capital: It’s been a great generation to have started out rich. If you compare the United States to the famously high-tax Nordic countries, the major difference is not in the top statutory income tax rates. The top American combined state and local tax rate is generally a little higher than it is in Norway and a little lower than in Denmark and Sweden. New York and California, where a large share of our billionaires live, have unusually high top income tax rates, so the richest people are paying Nordic-level marginal rates. (Slow Boring)

• Sorry Marc, it — investment grade private credit — is just not that big: The FT, gently, on Marc Rowan, Apollo’s CEO,  latest “this is the biggest thing in history” essay — and the multiple times he has said exactly that before. The kindest version of the takedown. (Financial Times)

• Gmail Thinks I’m Stupid, So I Left: A nicely irritated post on Gmail’s creeping infantilization — AI summarizing nothing, hiding addresses, “smart compose” doing the opposite. The user case for going Fastmail/Proton in one sitting. (Modded Bear)

• High Density Living, 2000 Years Ago: Inside the Roman Apartment Building: Ancient Rome had six-story walk-ups, noise complaints, and absentee landlords. The more things change. A tombstone outside Rome bears “The Tenant’s Lament”—proof that housing has always been a problem. (Common Edge)

• This $50,000 Safety Fix Is Dividing the Aviation Industry and Washington: Federal safety officials and lawmakers have been at odds over mandating systems enabling pilots to see nearby aircraft (Wall Street Journal)

• Iran Atomic Risk Seen Higher Than Before Trump Attacks Began. The risk that Iran is covertly pursuing nuclear weapons is higher today than before the US and Israel launched their first military attacks on the Islamic Republic a year ago, according to western officials. The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned member countries about new nuclear proliferation dangers posed by Iran’s large inventory of near-bomb-grade uranium, which is no longer subject to weekly IAEA inspection. (Bloomberg free)

• Cancel Culture at CBS News: The Bulwark on the Pelley/Weiss/Bilton triangle and what it tells you about who the new CBS News editorial line is for. The “cancel culture” framing applied where the people doing the cancelling actually are. (The Bulwark) see also Scott Pelley Fires Back After “60 Minutes” Ouster: “The Collapse of Values at the Top Has Become Untenable”: Variety carrying Pelley’s on-the-record statement after the firing — the kind of clean, scorched-earth quote that doesn’t happen at CBS News by accident. (Variety)  see also When “60 Minutes” is in Trouble, We are All in Trouble: Jim Acosta on what the Pelley firing means for the rest of the press corps. Read alongside Margaret Sullivan’s “priced in” piece — same diagnosis, fresh data point. (Jim Acosta)

• He Was the Knicks Owner Who Could Do Nothing Right. Now James Dolan Can’t Miss.: WSJ on the strangest sports-business arc of the decade — Dolan, of all people, with a Finals team and a cleaner front office than half the league. Even Knicks fans aren’t sure what to do with this. (Wall Street Journal)

Video of the day: What It’s Like to Be a Billionaire’s Family Member

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Funds. The firm oversees $20 billion in client assets, with Davis (and colleagues) co-investing $2 billion in their own mineus alongside shareholders. Davis was named Morningstar’s Portfolio Manager of the Year; he also sits on the boards of Berkshire Hathaway and Coca-Cola.

 

The Lowest Consumer Sentiment EVER

Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

 

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

EU Could Lose 1.3 Million Jobs Due To Energy Price Surge From Iran War

Up to 1.3 million jobs across the EU are at risk because of the ongoing war in the Middle East, European Commissioner for jobs Roxana Mînzatu said on Wednesday.

"Due to the war in the Middle East, up to 1.3 million jobs are at risk, particularly in energy-intensive industries," Mînzatu said at a press conference.

"Let me also underline that increased energy costs will have a particular negative impact on lower-income households in Europe, which is why we recommend that all member states take targeted measures so that they can support vulnerable groups," the Commissioner added.

According to the report, the EU automotive sector could face ​the biggest layoffs of up to 600,000. Construction, metals, chemicals, transport could lose 56,000 jobs. Some 85,000 jobs in battery projects could be at risk ​and 58,852 ​jobs ⁠in solar manufacturing. Another 4,500 jobs could go in the ​steel sector because of low-carbon ​measures.

In a stagflationary double whammy, Low-income ⁠households could spend an additional 1.4% of income on transport fuel.

As Euronews reports, the warning came during the presentation of the 2026 Spring Semester Package, a bi-annual publication by the EU executive that provides guidance to the 27 member states on the bloc's economic priorities.

The conflict has already had tangible effects on the European economy, with energy prices surging as a result. According to the latest European economic forecasts published in May, the war has slowed European growth while pushing inflation higher. Yesterday we learned that Euro Area inflation topped 3% for the first time since 2023, cementing an ECB rate hike next week.

Economic data on growth and inflation vary sharply across the EU, a disparity the Commission considers a threat to competitiveness.
Key priorities

The package dedicates significant space to employment, focusing on the promotion of quality jobs and how EU countries can tackle persistent shortages of skilled workers in strategically important sectors.

"Improving educational outcomes and better aligning people's skills with labor market needs remain key priorities, also to address labour and skills shortages which are particularly acute in strategic sectors such as cybersecurity, quantum, artificial intelligence and semiconductors," the Semester Package states.

At the press conference, Mînzatu said that 77% of European companies report that skill shortages remain a significant barrier to investment. She identified poor working conditions as the main driver of those shortages.

"We cannot attract talent, we cannot reduce shortages, we cannot improve people's earnings without making sure we have good working conditions," the Commissioner said.

Since the beginning of this mandate, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made competitiveness one of the Commission's highest priorities as geopolitical uncertainties mount.

The latest Semester Package reflects this, focusing on how Europe can strengthen its position on the global stage.

In particular, the bloc wants to reduce economic barriers in the single market, create a more business-friendly environment for companies and capital, and minimise strategic dependencies – especially on China and the US.

To that end, the Commission is pushing member states towards a more robust industrial policy, greater investment in capital markets, and a simplification agenda that would, among other things, reduce administrative burdens both in the private and public sector.

In parallel, the Commission is working to accelerate economic reforms at the EU level, though progress relies heavily on the willingness of member states to act – a longstanding coordination challenge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 02:45

Iran To Deepen Ties With 'Principal Strategic Partner' China: Ghalibaf

Via The Cradle

Iranian Parliament Speaker and special representative for China affairs, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, held the first joint meeting with key economic officials on Wednesday to align Tehran's economic strategy toward Beijing.

The session in Tehran included the ministers of economy, oil, and industry, alongside the central bank governor and the head of the Plan and Budget Organization.

The assembly focused on establishing a unified government approach to elevate bilateral relations and coordinate the administration's economic priorities. During the proceedings, officials evaluated China’s economic conduct amid the US-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the US and Israel.

Participants agreed to submit formal proposals to Ghalibaf to resolve outstanding challenges and deepen cooperation. 

This coordination effort supports a developing strategy to position China as Iran’s “principal strategic partner” while expanding collaboration on regional and international issues.

Roughly 30 China-linked vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a single day in mid-May under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy. 

These transits follow a “management protocol” established after Iran restricted the waterway to US and Israeli-linked vessels in February. 

While the strait remains largely closed, passage is permitted for commercial ships that comply with Iranian naval procedures and utilize designated corridors 

In parallel, since the 'illegal' US blockade on Iranian ports was implemented in April, Iran has tripled its rail exports of oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to China in an effort to bypass the economic stranglehold. 

Iran's special representative for China affairs @mb_ghalibaf held a joint meeting with the ministers of economy and oil, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the head of the Plan and Budget Organization, and the Minister of Industry, Mine, and Trade. pic.twitter.com/0qHZlb2zIm

— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) June 3, 2026

Freight trains on the 10,400-kilometer corridor now depart every three to four days, a significant increase from the previous weekly schedule, and halve traditional sea transit times to roughly 15 days.

Despite this, rail capacity remains a modest alternative to maritime shipping; one train carries 60,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil, while large tankers can transport upwards of 2 million barrels.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 02:00

US Formally Rejects Somaliland Sovereignty In Blow To Israel

Via Middle East Eye

The US has reaffirmed “the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Somalia, in a move seen as a blow to Somaliland, the breakaway region recently recognized by Israel and close to the United Arab Emirates. In a report to Congress on “Potential Areas for Improved United States Engagement with Somaliland”, the US State Department stated that Somaliland was included in the Federal Republic of Somalia.

“Within that framework, the United States maintains a positive, constructive relationship with Somaliland and continues to explore additional opportunities for engagement with Somaliland authorities,” the report says. Israel became the first country in the world to formally recognize Somaliland on December 26 last year.

Reuters/MEE: Somaliland military armed vehicles take part in a parade during the self-declared Independence Day, with celebrations commemorating their 1991 breakaway from Somalia, on 18 May 2026

The month before, Somaliland President Abdirahman Abdullahi Mohamed secretly visited Israel, meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other “top officials”, according to multiple sources in Somalia and Somaliland. 

Those other officials included Mossad chief David Barnea and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, who visited Somaliland immediately after Israel formally recognised the former British colony’s sovereignty. 

'Recognition is bigger than anything else. Do you have an alternative for us?'

- Rooble Mohamed, Somaliland government adviser

Somaliland has since recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, establishing an embassy there as meetings between Somaliland and Israeli ministers have continued and pro-Israel figures in the media have taken up the cause of independence for the breakaway Somali region. 

Jake Wallis Simons, former editor of the Jewish Chronicle, and Andrew Fox, an associate fellow at the right-wing Henry Jackson Society, were flown out to Somaliland for the May 18th self-declared independence day celebrations in Hargeisa, the region’s capital. Both men are ardent supporters of Israel. The UK’s former defence minister, Conservative MP Gavin Williamson, another keen supporter of Somaliland, was also part of the trip. 

Somaliland is hoping that Israel’s recognition will be followed by the UAE, with Ethiopia, India, Cyprus and Georgia also in its sights. 

Trump not expected to recognize Somaliland

A congressional source told Middle East Eye they did not expect US President Donald Trump’s administration to recognise Somaliland. Though lobbyists, including former Trump officials Tibor Nagy and Peter Pham, had raised the hopes of Somalilanders over US recognition, “there was never a sign that the president would go through with it,” the source said.

Trump has persistently singled out Somalia and Somali Americans for abuse during his second term in office. He has referred to Somalis as “low IQ people” and said that all Somalis are “crooked as hell”. He has said that Somali American congresswoman Ilhan Omar “is garbage”, and that “her friends are garbage”. 

A Somali analyst and policy adviser, who could not be named as he works with officials in both Somalia and Somaliland, told MEE he thought the report to Congress was “a consequential announcement that may effectively close the door on any lingering hopes of US recognition for Somaliland”.

The #UnitedStates affirms its recognition of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of #Somalia, which encompasses the region of Somaliland.

Furthermore, this report emphasizes the challenges associated with investing in #Somaliland due to its… pic.twitter.com/j7uPDiN0up

— SMS Somali TV (@SMSSomaliTV1) June 1, 2026

“From a strategic perspective, why settle for part of the cake when the whole cake remains within reach,” he said, referring to US ambitions across the whole of Somalia.

Asked if he agreed with this analysis, Rooble Mohamed, who is a consultant for the Somaliland communications ministry, told MEE: “The United States does not currently recognize Somaliland, so unless there is a formal recognition, such a statement is the reality for now. “The US does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state but has its own arrangements with it as a separate entity from China. This proposal seems to be the same.”

Somaliland's strategic importance for Israel, UAE and US

Somaliland and its location on the Red Sea have become more strategically important to the US, Israel and its allies with the rise of the Houthis in Yemen, the war on Iran and threats to shipping in one of the world’s busiest sea lanes. After it entered the war in Yemen, the UAE began building a ring of bases to control the Gulf of Aden. 

This was done with the help of Israeli military and intelligence officers, even before relations between the two countries were normalised as part of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Berbera, Somaliland’s main port, was part of this circle of bases, which is no longer fully intact following the rift between the UAE and its coalition partner in Yemen, Saudi Arabia.

The State Department’s report to Congress is clear on this matter. “Somaliland’s strategic location near Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab Strait positions it as a potential partner on shared security interests, including freedom of commercial and military navigation from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean,” it says.

via BBC

Israeli and Somaliland officials are in talks about the establishment of an Israeli base at Berbera. The UAE’s DP World also runs its own port there, which is co-owned by the British government through its foreign investment arm. 

“Somaliland authorities have encouraged US investment in minerals and outlined priorities in infrastructure, trade, and economic growth,” the report to Congress says. Somaliland officials have said their soil is rich in lithium, coltan and other sought-after resources, and they have suggested that US access to these riches could come alongside recognition. 

The State Department report also mentions the “ongoing development” of Berbera’s airport and seaports “into a trade and transportation hub for Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia”, saying this could “create increased opportunities” for the US. However, the report concludes, “regional security concerns and the dispute over Somaliland’s status, including its refusal to cooperate with national authorities, present challenges for investment, banking, and trade.” 

Asked if he thought Israel’s recognition was doing Somaliland more harm than good, given the genocide in Gaza and Israel’s plummeting popularity worldwide and particularly in the Muslim world, Rooble Mohamed said the government in Hargeisa had “no alternatives”.

“Recognition is bigger than anything else. Do you have an alternative for us? We are one of the Muslim countries of the world, I don’t think we are different. I think it’s normal to have a relationship with Israel,” Mohamed said. “It does not mean the Palestinians are our enemies.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 23:25

Colonoscopy: The Most Used Screening Test For Colon Cancer, Here Are The Benefits And Risks

Authored by Mercura Wang via The Epoch Times,

Medically reviewed by Jimmy Almond, M.D.

Colonoscopy is the most widely used screening test for colon cancer, which is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States.

It is considered the gold standard and is more accurate than two other common screening methods - stool tests and sigmoidoscopy - because it allows doctors to see the entire colon and remove any potentially problematic polyps during the same procedure.

However, there is ongoing debate about who should undergo a colonoscopy and when. Not everyone will get colon cancer, and the procedure could lead to overdiagnosis as well as rare but serious side effects.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock What Does A Colonoscopy Do?

The colon is the main part of the large intestine and is about 5 feet long in adults. The rectum stores stool until it passes through the anus. Together, they make up most of the large intestine, absorbing nutrients and converting liquid waste into solid stool.

During a colonoscopy, a gastroenterologist inserts a thin, flexible tube with a lighted camera (colonoscope) through the anus to examine the lining of the rectum and colon. The tube introduces air to gently inflate the colon so the doctor can see more clearly. If polyps or other abnormalities are found, they can often be removed immediately using tools such as forceps, snares, or electrocautery devices passed through the scope.

The procedure takes about 20 to 45 minutes.

Most colonoscopies in the United States are performed under sedation or anesthesia, so patients may sleep through the entire procedure. Those who choose lighter sedation - or none at all - may feel some discomfort.

The primary purpose of colonoscopy is to prevent or detect colon cancer.

Beyond cancer screening, colonoscopy can be used to both detect and treat a range of problems in the colon and rectum, including polyps, ulcerations, and diverticula (small pouches that can form in the colon wall).

It can also help determine the underlying causes of symptoms such as chronic diarrhea, rectal bleeding, and changes in bowel habits. During the procedure, doctors can identify inflamed tissue, sources of bleeding, and other abnormalities in the colon.

Who Should Have A Colonoscopy, And When?

According to the current guidelines, colonoscopy is recommended for most adults starting at age 45, and repeated every 10 years if results are normal. More frequent screenings may be recommended depending on any abnormal findings.

People at higher risk are suggested to begin screening earlier - at age 40 or 10 years younger than the age at which a first-degree relative was diagnosed with colorectal cancer, whichever comes first.

In older adults, colonoscopy carries a greater risk of complications. After age 75, the decision to continue screening should be made in consultation with a doctor based on potential benefits, risks, and patient preferences.

Beyond the main guidelines, screening recommendations continue to evolve. For instance, some guidelines recommend initiating screening at age 50. In addition, emerging evidence suggests that follow-up intervals after a normal colonoscopy may be safely extended in some people. A 2024 study found that people without a family history of colorectal cancer and with an initial normal colonoscopy may be able to wait up to 15 years before repeat screening.

Some experts suggest weighing the benefits and risks. For a person with a family history of colon cancer, it may be beneficial to keep a close watch, while for someone at low risk, it may be a different story.

These differences highlight continuing uncertainty and the need for individualized clinical judgment as evidence continues to evolve.

In addition, colonoscopy may be avoided or require careful consideration in people who:

• Have inadequate bowel preparation
• Have a bowel perforation, severe inflammation, or infection
• Have unstable health or significant medical conditions (advanced heart, lung, kidney, or liver disease)
• Have a life expectancy of less than 10 years, or risks that outweigh the potential benefits
• Have blood-clotting disorders

How Effective Is Colonoscopy?

"Colonoscopy has a sensitivity of 88 percent to 98 percent for identifying advanced, precancerous polyps," Dr. Steven Lee-Kong, chief of colorectal surgery at Hackensack University Medical Center, told The Epoch Times.

The miss rate may be influenced by factors such as inadequate bowel preparation, the type of polyps being examined, and the skill of the endoscopist, noted Dr. Rucha Shah, a gastroenterologist. Small or flat polyps are harder to detect, and in some cases, the entire colon may not be fully visualized.

Colonoscopy allows doctors to remove precancerous polyps during the same procedure - something other screening tests cannot do. Removing these polyps has been shown to significantly reduce the risk of death from colorectal cancer, with one study reporting a 53 percent reduction in mortality associated with polyp removal.

However, recent studies have offered additional perspectives.

For example, colonoscopy is used much more frequently for screening in the United States than in Canada, where only about 15 percent of procedures are performed for screening, and most are diagnostic, yet colorectal cancer survival rates remain similar in both countries.

A major 2022 Nordic-European Initiative on Colorectal Cancer study found a modest reduction in colorectal cancer mortality with colonoscopy screening, no significant difference in overall death rates, and a low rate of serious complications.

What Are The Risks And Complications Of Colonoscopy?

Colonoscopy is generally safe, but like all medical procedures, it carries some potential risks and complications. Most are minor and resolve quickly.

• Gas, Bloating, Cramping, or Stomach Discomfort: These symptoms are mainly caused by air introduced during the exam and temporary changes in gut bacteria from the bowel preparation. These typically resolve within a day or two, although some people may notice symptoms lasting a few weeks.
• Nausea, Vomiting, Dizziness, or Dehydration: These symptoms may occur as a result of the osmotic laxative used for bowel preparation.
• Mild Redness or Tenderness at the IV Insertion Site: This may occur in the arm where the intravenous line was placed.
• Medication Side Effects: Sedation or anesthesia may cause temporary changes in blood pressure, rash, or breathing difficulties.
• Electrolyte Imbalances or Kidney Problems: In some cases, the bowel preparation may lead to low levels of potassium, sodium, or magnesium, or affect kidney function.

Less Common And More Serious Side Effects

Certain complications are directly related to the colonoscopy procedure itself.

• Bleeding: Bleeding may occur after a biopsy or polyp removal, usually during or shortly after the procedure, although it can occasionally be delayed for up to one week. It is typically minor, with significant bleeding being rare and occurring in less than 1 percent of cases. The risk increases based on the size of the removed polyp.
• Perforation: Perforation during colonoscopy is very rare (less than one in 1,000 procedures) and involves a tear in the intestinal wall that can allow bowel contents to leak into the abdomen, potentially causing infection. It may occur due to mechanical injury from the scope or instruments, overinflation of the bowel, or thermal damage during polyp removal. Symptoms typically include pain during or shortly after the procedure, although small perforations may appear later. Untreated cases can lead to fever and abdominal infection.
• Postpolypectomy Syndrome: This occurs when heat from electrocoagulation (the removal of tissue with an electrical current) injures the colon wall during polyp removal. It is rare, occurring in about three to four per 10,000 colonoscopies. Symptoms may include fever, localized abdominal pain, and an increased white blood cell count.
• Splenic Injury: This rare but potentially life-threatening complication can occur when the spleen is directly injured or torn by traction during the procedure. It typically causes pain in the upper left abdomen that may radiate to the left shoulder and can progress to low blood pressure and shock.
• Infections: In rare cases, an infection may develop after a colonoscopy and require antibiotic treatment.

Cardiopulmonary events are related to the anesthesia or sedation used during colonoscopy. They can range from temporary issues such as low blood pressure, low oxygen levels, and fainting to more serious complications, including respiratory distress, irregular heartbeat, and acute coronary events.

Contact your doctor if you:

• Have abdominal pain that does not improve after passing gas
• Develop new or worsening abdominal pain
• Feel nauseated or cannot keep fluids down
• Notice blood in your stool
• Develop a fever (100.4 F or higher)
• Are unable to pass stool or gas

How Do I Prepare For A Colonoscopy?

"A successful colonoscopy hinges on a thoroughly cleansed colon, which is achieved through a standard preparation protocol involving dietary changes and a bowel-cleansing agent," Lee-Kong said.

• Special Diet: This bowel-cleaning process usually starts on the day before a colonoscopy. Lee-Kong recommends a low-fiber or clear liquid diet, while avoiding solid foods and red-colored liquids. Avoid fruit punch, cranberry juice, red wine, and red sports drinks. Medical professionals often advise avoiding red, orange, or purple foods and drinks, as the coloring can resemble blood or inflammation in the colon. Clear liquids commonly recommended the day before the procedure include black coffee, plain tea, fat-free broth, gelatin, clear sports drinks without added color, strained fruit juices, and water.
• Bowel Preparation: This typically involves laxative solutions or tablets designed to fully cleanse the colon before the procedure. Patients are prescribed a laxative solution, often a polyethylene glycol (PEG) or sodium phosphate formula, to induce frequent bowel movements and clear the colon. The 'split-dose' method, where the solution is taken in two parts - the evening before and the morning of the procedure - is commonly recommended for a more effective cleanse, according to Lee-Kong. Other common options include sulfate-based solutions and magnesium citrate products. Some regimens combine laxatives like bisacodyl with PEG solutions or use over-the-counter mixes such as MiraLAX with clear sports drinks.
• Temporary Discontinuation of Medications: Before a colonoscopy, you may be asked to temporarily stop certain medications, such as aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen, or other blood thinners, as they can increase the risk of bleeding. You will also usually need to stop taking iron supplements a few days before the test because they can darken stool and make it harder to see inside the colon.
• General Preparations: On the day of the colonoscopy, you may be allowed to wear dentures, but you may be asked to remove them before the procedure because they can shift during sedation and potentially obstruct the airway. Avoid bringing jewelry or valuables to prevent theft, and don't wear nail polish as it may interfere with oxygen sensor readings.
• Transportation Plan: Since sedation is used during a colonoscopy, you will need someone to drive you home afterward, as you may feel drowsy or dizzy.

According to Lee-Kong and Shah, some groups may need additional preparation.

• Pregnant Women: Colonoscopy is generally avoided during pregnancy. If it has to be done, oral laxatives are generally avoided, and tap water enemas may be used instead. Sodium phosphate preparations are particularly avoided due to potential risks for both mother and fetus.
• Older Adults (Especially Older Than 75): PEG-based preparations are preferred to reduce the risk of electrolyte imbalances.
• People With Kidney or Heart Disease: Sodium phosphate solutions are generally avoided.
• People With Chronic Constipation: A more intensive, multiday preparation may be needed.
• People With Diabetes: Medication adjustments are required to prevent low blood sugar during preparation.

What Can I Expect After A Colonoscopy?

Recovery is usually quick, with most people returning to normal within about one day. After the procedure, you will spend 30 to 50 minutes recovering at the clinic while the sedative wears off.

Once home, you should rest for the remainder of the day and avoid driving, operating machinery, and drinking alcohol.

You can typically return to your regular diet, but bland, low-fiber foods may be better tolerated during the first 24 hours, since you may experience mild bloating or cramping from the air used during the procedure.

If polyps were removed, you might be advised to follow a more specific diet and avoid certain medications such as blood thinners.

What Are The Alternatives To Colonoscopy?

Colonoscopy isn't the only option - and it may not be your preference. According to a 2025 study, around 75 percent of adults eligible for screening prefer a noncolonoscopy option - such as stool-based or blood-based tests - as their first choice.

Several alternatives to colonoscopy are available, and they are often preferred due to lower invasiveness, patient preference, or medical contraindications, Lee-Kong said. Noninvasive stool-based tests are a primary alternative and include the following:

• Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT): This home-based annual test detects human blood in stool samples and does not require dietary restrictions. If blood is detected, a repeat test or follow-up colonoscopy may be needed. It has a reported 97 percent accuracy for detecting colon cancer.
• Multitargeted Stool DNA Test Plus FIT: This test combines FIT with stool DNA analysis using a single sample to check for both blood and abnormal DNA every three years, although it requires collecting an entire bowel movement. It can detect up to 93 percent of cancerous lesions.
• High-Sensitivity Guaiac-Based Fecal Occult Blood Testing (gFOBT): This noninvasive screening test uses a chemical reaction to detect hidden blood in stool, which may indicate colorectal cancer or polyps. Compared with older gFOBTs, it detects cancers more effectively but often requires dietary restrictions and avoiding vitamin C supplements for three days before testing to reduce false-positive results.

"While convenient, a positive result on any of these tests necessitates a follow-up colonoscopy," Lee-Kong said. A follow-up colonoscopy is generally recommended within nine months.

Other visual and imaging tests, which also require bowel preparation, include the following:

• Flexible Sigmoidoscopy: Uses a scope to examine only the lower third of the colon. It can be performed while the patient is awake and can detect about 70 percent of polyps or tumors, although it does not assess the upper colon.
• Virtual Colonoscopy (CT Colonography): This noninvasive imaging test uses a CT scan after air is introduced into the rectum. It can detect most larger tumors but may miss smaller polyps, which could still require a follow-up colonoscopy for removal.

Lee-Kong noted that these alternatives may be particularly appropriate for average-risk people who decline colonoscopy and for frail older people or others for whom the risks outweigh the benefits.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 20:55

Is John Cornyn Trying To Sabotage Ken Paxton?

Texas Republicans handed Sen. John Cornyn one of the most humiliating defeats in the state's modern political history in this year's primary runoff. A week after being clobbered by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, he is amplifying a Libertarian candidate, in an apparent attempt to siphon conservative votes from Ken Paxton in the general election in November.

In a post on X, Cornyn shared a Houston Public Media interview profiling Libertarian nominee Ted Brown, whose 2026 Senate campaign is built around courting conservatives dissatisfied with the Republican primary results.

The article itself makes it very clear that Brown has the potential to be a spoiler for Paxton. "Most polling shows Texas' U.S. Senate race between state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, and Austin state Rep. James Talarico, his Democratic opponent, as extremely close," it opens. "That potentially creates an opening for a third-party candidate, Libertarian Ted Brown, to shape the outcome."

Rut roh

Libertarian Ted Brown courts disaffected conservative voters in Texas' U.S. Senate race - Houston Public Media https://t.co/wZ9ipRviE1

- Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) June 2, 2026

Brown pulled more than 267,000 votes in the 2024 Texas Senate race, a record performance for a Libertarian candidate in the state, and Cornyn just handed him a megaphone.

Cornyn had initially signaled he would fall in line behind the GOP nominee.

"I've spent most of my time in the Senate building the Republican party in Texas and in the U.S. Senate, and I've always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend to do so again in this general election," he said when he addressed his supporters last week after the election results. "I've said throughout this race that I trust the voters of Texas, and they've made their decision, and I must respect it."

Since then, however, he has been walking back that pledge.

"I stand by everything I said during the whole campaign," Cornyn told reporters on Monday, and implied that Paxton can't win the race.

"I'd prefer a Republican to somebody like James Talarico," Cornyn said. "But I'm going to concentrate most of my efforts on trying to keep the Senate by helping some of what I consider to be the more winnable races around the country."

Brown understands exactly what he is doing. He told Houston Public Media he is appealing to voters who "aren't satisfied with the primary results." When asked about playing spoiler, he pushed back with characteristic flair: "Frankly, you can't spoil something that's rotten and putrid to begin with," Brown told Houston Public Media. He is clearly hunting for precisely the kind of voter a bitter, defeated incumbent might quietly nudge his direction.

Whether Cornyn intended that outcome or simply failed to think through the signal his post sent is almost beside the point. The effect is the same. A senator who lost to Paxton's MAGA-aligned coalition is now boosting a third-party candidate whose entire pitch rests on making conservatives feel justified in abandoning the Republican nominee.

Paxton enters the general election with real structural advantages. He has won statewide elections in Texas three times already, while his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, is introducing himself to Texans statewide, giving Republicans the advantage of defining Talarico based on his controversial statements and positions on gender and other issues out of step with mainstream Texas voters.

While polls suggest a tight race, the prediction markets see what's coming. Polymarket and Kalshi both give Paxton roughly a 60% chance of winning, compared to Talarico's roughly 40%. Talarico has never led in the prediction markets. Texas remains a fundamentally red state, and the fundamentals favor Paxton.

Promoting a Libertarian candidate who openly fishes for unhappy Republicans while simultaneously calling the Republican nominee a crook sends a message to Texas conservatives that it's okay not to back the Republican candidate, effectively validating the MAGA base's concerns about Cornyn.

While Paxton is still favored, Cornyn just made this race harder without delivering any discernible benefit to the party he claims to support. Talarico isn't the only person to gain from Cornyn amplifying the Libertarian targeting conservative voters. Cornyn himself may see a Paxton defeat as validation of his primary campaign message that he was the best candidate to lead the GOP to victory.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 20:30

Scientists Boost Battery, Fuel Cell Performance By Over 300%

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

Researchers in South Korea have developed a new catalyst design strategy that boosts the efficiency of reactions used in batteries and hydrogen fuel cells without changing the catalyst itself.

New catalyst approach could improve fuel cells and batteries  (Representational image)Shutterstock

The team, led by Professor Seung Jun Hwang of POSTECH and Professor Jaeyune Ryu of Seoul National University, found that adjusting the electrical environment around a catalyst can significantly improve its performance. The approach could help reduce energy losses in next-generation energy systems while improving efficiency and stability.

Catalysts are materials that speed up chemical reactions. They are essential components in technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells and metal-air batteries, where they help drive the reactions that generate electricity.

Traditionally, researchers improve catalysts by changing the central metal, such as iron, cobalt, or nickel, or by redesigning the surrounding molecular structure known as a ligand. The new study takes a different route by leaving the catalyst largely unchanged and instead modifying the electric field around it.

Electric Fields Drive Gains

The researchers demonstrated that placing positively charged ions, known as cations, near the catalyst creates a localized electric field that influences how reactions proceed.

The team focused on the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), a key electrochemical process that generates electricity in fuel cells and metal-air batteries. Improving this reaction has long been a goal because it directly affects device efficiency and energy consumption.

Experiments showed that the share of the desired reaction pathway increased from roughly 12 percent to as much as 52 percent when the electric field was introduced. This allowed the reaction to occur more efficiently while requiring less energy.

According to the researchers, the results suggest that catalyst performance can be tuned through environmental control rather than by redesigning catalyst materials from scratch. Such an approach could simplify future catalyst development and lower costs associated with creating new materials.

Beyond Batteries And Fuel

The implications may extend beyond energy storage and hydrogen technologies. The researchers believe the same principle could be applied to catalysts used for carbon dioxide conversion and environmentally friendly hydrogen production.

Many clean-energy technologies rely on catalysts to control complex chemical reactions. Being able to improve those reactions by adjusting local electrical conditions could provide a new tool for designing more efficient systems.

"This study demonstrates that reaction properties can be precisely controlled solely through the surrounding electrical environment, without changing the structure of the catalyst itself," said Hwang.

The researchers say the findings open a new direction for catalyst engineering by shifting attention from the catalyst's structure to its operating environment.

The oxygen reduction reaction examined in the study is a core process in hydrogen fuel cells, which generate electricity from hydrogen and oxygen, as well as metal-air batteries that use oxygen from the atmosphere as part of the energy storage process.

"We expect it to present a new direction for developing next-generation batteries, fuel cells, and eco-friendly energy catalyst technologies," Hwang added.

If the approach can be scaled and applied across different catalyst systems, it could help improve the performance of a wide range of clean-energy technologies without requiring entirely new catalyst materials.

The study was published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 19:15

Central Bank Gold Buying Rebounds In April From Dramatic March Selloff

First the good news: according to the latest World Gold Council update, central banks, a key pillar of the bullish case for gold, have returned to adding holdings in April after notable selling in March sent the price of the precious metal tumbling. The 17 ton purchase represents a turnaround from steep sales in March, which at nearly 30 tons were the largest monthly gold sales in years, driven almost entirely by Turkey. Poland remained the top buyer in the month, while China accelerated its pace of purchases. 

According to WGC, Poland remained be the top buyer in the month (14t), while China intensified its pace of purchases: its 8t net purchase was the highest since December 2024 and extends its current buying run to 18 consecutive months. The Czech Republic shows similar consistency in purchases, having bought 3t in April, its 38th consecutive monthly purchase. Meanwhile, Russia continues its sales streak this month (6t), with y-t-d sales of 22t.

Reported activity in April and y-t-d was concentrated in: 

• National Bank of Poland drove much of April’s buying activity, having bought 14t. This brings Poland’s y-t-d gold purchases to 45t with its gold reserves at595t or about 30% of its total reserves.
• People’s Bank of China added 8t to its gold reserves during the month, highest since December 2024. Official gold reserves now stand at 9% of total reserves or around 2,322t. China has been consistently purchasing gold over the past 18 consecutive months.
• Czech National Bank’s modest but consistent 2t net purchases in April brings its gold reserves to 79t or 6% of its total reserves.
• Meanwhile, Central Bank of Uzbekistan sold 1t this month, though on a y-t-d basis, it remains a net purchaser (24t) and is second only to Poland. Uzbekistan’s reserves make up 88% of its total reserves or around 414t.
• Central Bank of Russia continued it recent streak of net sales for the fourth month with reported April net sales of 6t.
• March’s top seller, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey reported virtually flat gold reserves in April, with weekly data showing that short-term gold/USD swaps matured in April, leaving only longer-term (1-3 month) gold/USD swaps outstanding. More on Turkey’s recent reserve management operations can be found in our recently published Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026.
• Eastern European and Asian central banks continue to dominate gold purchases with consistent purchases. Over the past 36 months, both regions have purchased 12t and 11t per month on average collectively. Global central banks activity shows average net purchases of 29t over the same period (Chart 2).

Now the bad news: according to Goldman, even as the rebound signals a return to sturdy central bank demand, it’s trending at a fraction of last year’s average pace. Meanwhile, the driver of last year's tremendous move higher which pushed gold above $5000, has yet to return: the furious ETF buying that characterized the meltup phase in gold, is not there; in fact, ETFs continue to sell as all momentum-chasing liquidity has landed in such areas as chip and memory stocks.

That underscores that the market is currently more focused on the near-term headwinds for the bullion rather than its structural tailwinds.

Meanwhile, with Treasury yields and the dollar grinding higher as the US economy proves surprisingly resilient in the face of elevated oil prices, and with positioning on the back foot, the path ahead for gold remains challenged.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:50

House Passes Dem Resolution to Block U.S. Military Action Against Iran In Narrow Vote

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution on June 3 directing the withdrawal of U.S. troops from armed hostilities with Iran, in a closely divided 215–208 vote.

Four Republicans joined Democrats in supporting the measure, which invokes the 1973 War Powers Resolution to require President Donald Trump to either end the operations or seek explicit congressional approval to continue them.

The resolution comes amid ongoing tensions in the region.

Although Washington and Tehran announced a ceasefire on April 7, U.S. forces have enforced an armed blockade of Iranian ports, leading to several exchanges of fire.

On June 2, U.S. forces struck an oil tanker, prompting Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. positions in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Mixed Reactions and Political Context

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) argued that the timing of the resolution was problematic, as it could interfere with President Trump’s ongoing efforts to negotiate a lasting peace agreement with Iran.

“The president is now in the process of concluding a peace agreement, and we have to allow him the latitude to do that,” Johnson said. “I think a war powers resolution right now is very untimely.”

In contrast, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said Congress should have acted sooner to pull back U.S. forces. She expressed hope that more Republicans would support the measure, stating, “I’m hoping that they will see the light.”

This marks the second attempt in recent weeks. A similar resolution failed on May 14 in a 212–212 tie. Republican leadership had previously postponed a scheduled May 21 vote.

The measure now moves to the Senate, where passage is uncertain, and it would likely face a veto from President Trump if approved.

The vote reflects deepening divisions in Congress over the scope and authorization of U.S. military involvement in the Iran conflict, which began escalating in late February.

Supporters of the resolution argue it upholds congressional authority under the War Powers Resolution, which generally requires presidents to withdraw forces from unauthorized hostilities within 60 days (with a possible 30-day extension for safe withdrawal).

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:25

Broadcom Crashes After AI Chip Revenue Forecast Misses

Broadcaom stock is plunging in after-hours trading, after the company reported Q2 results which delivered a disappointing forecast for AI chip revenue, signaling that the company is either progressing more slowly than anticipated in the burgeoning industry, or that unlike its peers, is actually truthful in predicting the potential of the AI bubble.

The historicals were ok: in the fiscal second quarter, which ended May 3, sales rose 48% to $22.2 billion, just barely beating the $22.1 estimate. AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion, also just barely above estimates of $10.7 billion. That category includes custom-built accelerators - the chips used to develop and run AI models - as well as networking semiconductors. Adjusted EPS climbed to $2.44 a share, also modestly beat the median estimate of $2.39.

But the forecast was a problem: AI semiconductor revenue will be $16 billion in the fiscal third quarter, missing analyst estimates of $17.2 billion. Total revenue will be about $29.4 billion, which while higher than the $28.6 billion median estimate was below some buyside bogeys which ranged billions of dollars higher. EBITDA guidance of 68.0%, also missed the street at 69.1%.

The forecast miss is concerning: Broadcom has signed and expanded long-term deals with companies like Google, Anthropic and Meta but questions remain as to how much revenue will be recognized in each quarter, as opposed to being accounted for in a multiyear backlog. 

Investors were also disappointed after the company kept its full year AI target at 10GW in 2027 and $100BN in chip sales for the full year, instead of boosting guidance as it had in prior quarters. The pressure was also margin related as GOOGL TPU growth generating lower margins than networking and software. 

CEO Hock Tan has tied the company’s fortunes to AI gear, betting on a rapid expansion of data centers and other infrastructure. While Nvidia remains the dominant maker of AI accelerators, Broadcom has positioned itself as a key alternative. 

In hopes of boosting its operational leverage, Broadcom has been taking a bigger role helping finance the purchase of chips. As Bloomberg reported over the weekend, Apollo and Blackstone are working on a roughly $36 billion debt financing deal to help Anthropic pay for its Google chips that Broadcom helped develop. Broadcom is backstopping payments on the largest portions of the transaction, Bloomberg reported. So we have yet another circular deal: Broadcom is funding the SPV that will allow Anthropic to pay Google for Broadcom chips. You can see why the entire AI industry is now so careful about even the smallest drawdown: if even the smallest cracks appear, questions will once again start swirling about risk and ROI, and now that there are over $600BN in private credit SPV backstopping future growth, the entire house of cards could come crashing down.

Against that backdrop, the latest report failed to satisfy investors, with the stock crashing over 12% in late trading, erasing all the recent "gamma squeeze" gains orchestrated by market makers to set the stage for the coming mega IPOs. It was up 38% this year through the close; those gains have been cut in half after the results. 

 

While Broadcom has made progress in pivoting to artificial intelligence customers, it finds itself against increasingly cutthroat competition and higher expectations. Broadcom added roughly $270 billion in market value over the last five trading sessions before the earnings report, fueled by AI optimism. All of that has been wiped out. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:18

SPLC Employee Funneled $1.2 Million To Neo-Nazi Lover - And More: DOJ Superseding Indictment

The Southern Poverty Law Center built a massive empire - ballooning to over $787 million in assets - by promising donors it was the frontline defender against "hate" and white supremacy. But according to the Department of Justice's superseding indictment, the organization allegedly funneled millions in tax-exempt donor dollars to the very extremists it publicly condemned.

The Juiciest Revelation: The $1.2 Million Romantic Entanglement

One of the most shocking details involves "F-9" - a field source affiliated with the neo-Nazi National Alliance. The SPLC allegedly paid this individual over $1.2 million while F-9 was in a romantic relationship with an SPLC employee.

While on the SPLC payroll, F-9 reportedly continued raising funds for the National Alliance.

1⃣ NATIONAL ALLIANCE

SPLC paid over $1.2M to "F-9," who was in a romantic relationship with an SPLC employee

While receiving SPLC donors' money, F-9 also raised funds for the National Alliance.

5/20

- Tyler O'Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) June 3, 2026

Other Damning Allegations From The Superseding Indictment

• F-30 (Nazi/KKK/Aryan Nations leader): Paid more than $70K after asking to leave the movement. Instead, the SPLC allegedly kept them on salary to host rallies, recruit, and publish extremist material.
• F-31 & F-32 (KKK members): Wanted out in 2010 but were allegedly bribed to stay active. Funds reimbursed cross-burning materials, including wood and fuel, and helped them gain leadership roles.
• F-37 (Unite the Right): Paid over $300K. This individual was in the leadership chat for the 2017 Charlottesville rally, made racist posts under SPLC supervision, and arranged transportation for attendees.
• F-42 (Neo-Nazi National Alliance chairman): Received $155K+ while simultaneously listed on the SPLC's own "Extremist File" webpage.
• Additional payments: Approximately $350K to a National Socialist Movement officer and $19K to American Front's national president, a convicted cross-burning felon.

READ IT

The Justice Department just secured a superseding indictment against the Southern Poverty Law Center, and it reveals some new bombshells

1/20

- Tyler O'Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) June 3, 2026

The Bigger Picture: Alleged Hate-For-Profit Machine

The DOJ alleges the SPLC used fictitious entities and shell accounts, including fake "Rare Books" employment covers, to conceal payments totaling over $4 million. Donors were told the money would dismantle extremism - instead, it allegedly sustained rallies, recruitment, racist paraphernalia, and living expenses for extremists. The organization is accused of making payments amounting to over $1 million to a National Alliance affiliate, more than $300,000 to an Aryan Nations affiliate, $270,000 to a “Unite the Right” member, $140,000 to a former National Alliance chairman, $73,000 to former KKK members, and $19,000 to an American Front president and felon.

This ties into charges of wire fraud, false statements to banks, and conspiracy to commit concealment money laundering. Upon conviction, the SPLC could forfeit assets traceable to the alleged scheme.

The SPLC has denied wrongdoing, calling the program legitimate intelligence-gathering that has since been discontinued, and framing the case as political retaliation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:00

Federal Inspection Reportedly Finds Delaney Hall In Compliance On Virtually All Standards

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

Democratic Governor Mikie Sherrill has repeatedly claimed that conditions in the Delaney Hall ICE facility are abhorrent, inhuman, and intolerable. Democratic leaders claimed that the conditions were so horrific that there was a hunger strike going on.

As is often the case, there is a closed loop of information fueling such claims. The media ran allegations from advocacy groups, politicians repeated the media reports as fact, and then lawyers cited both as the basis for a lawsuit to shut down the site. The problem is an actual federal inspection that found the facility to be in compliance with virtually every standard.

The most recent investigative report conducted by the DHS Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR) found compliance with 17 out of 22 standards. The errors were comparatively minor to the sweeping claims made by Sherrill and others.

The investigation, performed by six OPR officers and four outside contractors, found only 5 areas of violation, including ice buildup in the freezers, fingerprinting omissions, and improper labeling of cleaning equipment.

Moreover, ICE has supplied records showing that state officials have been allowed into the facility for their own inspections, releasing proof from a May 28 visit. Despite such access, Democratic politicians and activists continued to spread the false claim that there have been no such inspections, rotting food, and disgusting conditions.

In support of the state lawsuit, Sherrill proclaimed

"If the GEO Group - with a $1 billion government contract - has nothing to hide and the conditions inside Delaney Hall are as safe and as sanitary as this private corporation and the Trump Administration claim, then there is no legitimate reason why my health inspectors are being kept from full access throughout the building. The people of New Jersey deserve transparency and accountability, and I will continue using all the power of this office to advocate for the detainees and their families."

The complaint generally refers to public reports as the basis for the action:

"Since then, public reporting has raised significant concerns about public health conditions in the facility, including overcrowding and lack of ventilation; lack of or inadequate medical care or hygiene practices; unsanitary food and drink preparation and storage; and the unchecked spread of communicable diseases like COVID-19 and Influenza."

That will make for an interesting hearing on the new lawsuit, where the court may question the good-faith accounts made in filings or public statements. The complaint is notably framed in vague terms about the underlying claims and the sources for those allegations.

It notably only asks for access, avoiding a direct demand for a finding of violations.

In the meantime, Sherrill continues to claim that local police are present to protect protesters from the ICE violence and repeats these claims about conditions at the facility.

DHS has continued to rebut claims made by politicians and pundits. However, few of those facts are penetrating the coverage of the protests or changing the sweeping claims being made by elected officials.

This lawsuit could allow for a full consideration of the claims and the facts surrounding the facility.

Here is the complaint: Washington v. The GEO Group

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 17:40

India Throws Open The Bond Gates: Modi Slashes Foreign Investor Taxes In Scramble To Halt Rupee Collapse

Having spent the better part of a decade assuring the world that the Indian growth miracle was self-sustaining, structurally sound, and impervious to the “fragile five” indignities of yesteryear, New Delhi has quietly arrived at the only conclusion that ever follows a currency in freefall: print incentives, slash taxes, and beg foreigners to please, please come back.

According to Bloomberg, India is poised to announce a suite of measures to lure foreign capital - reducing taxes and removing ownership caps on certain bonds - possibly as soon as this week. The cabinet is expected to consider a “significant cut” in the taxes global funds pay on Indian bonds, with officials reportedly weighing whether to eliminate the 20% levy on bond interest income entirely, or shave it down to what the people familiar described as “a bare minimum.” Translation: foreigners weren’t biting, and somebody in the Finance Ministry finally noticed.

Separately, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to designate some long-tenor sovereign notes as “fully accessible,” allowing overseas investors to load up without limits. Readers will recall that the last tweak to this so-called Fully Accessible Route (FAR) came in 2024, when the RBI removed 14- and 30-year bonds from the list. So to recap the master plan: pull the long bonds out in 2024, watch the currency crater, then shove them back in 2026 and call it reform. Smart. 

Meanwhile, the rupee printed an all-time low of 96.9650 on May 20, capping a year in which it became the second-worst-performing currency in Asia, down more than 6% against the dollar. This is the same currency that the consensus crowd spent 2024 lauding as “among the least volatile in emerging markets,” back when foreign funds were piling into FAR bonds ahead of the JPMorgan index inclusion to the tune of nearly $10 billion. As we noted at the time, that “stability” was the entire allure... but stability built on hot money flows has a nasty habit of evaporating precisely when you need it.

It evaporated. The official list of culprits reads like a greatest-hits compilation of things that were supposedly “priced in”: US trade tariffs, record foreign fund outflows, and an oil shock courtesy of the Iran war that detonated India’s import bill. Modi himself was reduced to publicly imploring citizens to conserve foreign exchange - a phrase that should send a chill down the spine of anyone who remembers 2013, when New Delhi slapped capital controls on its own residents and restricted gold imports as the rupee buckled. Back then, those measures “raised concerns of outright capital controls” that would further undermine the confidence of foreign investors. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme, in Hindi.

The rupee has since clawed back from the 96.97 abyss to close at 95.71 per dollar, helped by the central bank “stepping up support” (read: torching reserves) and oil easing on renewed US-Iran peace overtures (read: rapid strategic reserve drain). The 10-year yield ticked up a single basis point to 7.02%. Markets, naturally, are treating the prospect of tax-cut-fueled inflows as salvation - the same way they treated index inclusion as salvation, right before the biggest bond selloff in a year hit the moment the currency wobbled.

The government is also expected to notify a plan permitting “persons resident outside India” - PROIs, because just like in the West, every desperate measure needs a cheerful acronym - to buy shares in listed Indian companies via the portfolio investment scheme. More doors, more access, more pleading.

The deeper irony is the one nobody in New Delhi will say out loud: a country that genuinely believed in its own growth story wouldn’t need to bribe foreigners with tax exemptions to hold its paper. You cut taxes on bond interest when the organic bid has gone missing and the marginal buyer has to be paid to show up. 

We’ve seen this movie before: in 2013, in 2024, and now again in 2026. The rupee makes a record low, the foreigners head for the exits, the central bank empties the tank defending the line, and then the politburo “discovers” the virtues of liberalization at exactly the moment of maximum weakness. Reform by panic. As always, the gates open widest right when the people inside are most eager to leave.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 17:20

California's 'Wealth' Tax Is Coming For Everyone

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

If you own property in California, you're not safe. A new ballot measure will empower the state to confiscate a percentage of the assets of any resident, even though its initial provisions don't communicate that intent. California's "One-Time Wealth Tax for State-Funded Healthcare, Education, and Food Assistance Programs Initiative," which has already qualified for the November ballot, is even worse than it appears.

It's not as if appearances aren't bad enough. The explicit intent of the initiative already chased at least six billionaires out of the state in 2025. Moved to Florida are Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, along with PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel. Nevada is now home to billionaire Don Hankey, and Texas has welcomed former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick. Famed director Steven Spielberg has moved to New York, apparently concluding even that deep blue state is a safer bet than California. Just the departure of these six men has lowered the potential take from the wealth tax by an estimated $27 billion.

A Hoover Institution study claims that another 20 California billionaires have already made departure plans and will leave immediately if the initiative is approved by voters. One of the initiative's many diabolical provisions is that it will apply retroactively to anyone living in the state after January 1, 2026, but unlike the six who got out in 2025, this next tranche of would-be exiles have been advised by their attorneys that the initiative's retroactivity will not survive a constitutional challenge.

Other details of this initiative are likely to survive court challenges, and they reveal a stunning level of aggression toward wealth. If you live in California, and this bill is approved by voters, you will have to pay a "one-time" tax of 5 percent of your "covered assets" valued over $1 billion. "Covered assets" include unrealized gains in the value of stock owned by employees of private companies. It is unlikely the framers of this initiative didn't understand the implications of this provision. Valuations of private companies are subjective, volatile, and illiquid. An employee with stock options valued at a few billion in the last private equity round could be assessed tens of millions of dollars in wealth tax on money they don't actually have access to, based on a value that could plummet at any moment.

It gets worse. The language of the wealth act provides for what amounts to unrestricted escalation of its reach, something that will surely become necessary when high earners are driven away, taking their taxable assets with them. Built into the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act is the right of the state legislature to amend its provisions with a two-thirds vote. That would include lowering the $1 billion threshold, replacing "one-time" with an annual assessment, and eliminating the exemptions currently present for real estate and retirement accounts. The wording of this initiative is purposely designed to give the state legislature the authority to override the property tax protections afforded by Proposition 13, passed by voters in 1978 and one of the only obstacles left that prevents the state from stripping the state's middle class of assets they've earned and stewarded over generations.

It is ridiculous to think California's state legislature cannot muster a two-thirds vote, anytime they wish, in order to extend the reach of the "Billionaire Tax Act" down to "millionaires," which, in California, is almost anyone who has owned their own home for more than a decade. In both houses of California's state legislature, 75 percent of the seats are held by Democrats. The overwhelming percentage of Democrats in California, and, for that matter, a sizable portion of the state's dwindling contingent of Republicans, are controlled by the state's powerful public sector unions. And more than anything else, these unions have one guiding principle: grow government, because bigger government means more membership, and more membership means more dues revenue. That's the reason that the top 10, if not the top 50, largest contributors to winning campaigns for seats in the state legislature are all public sector unions.

To grow support for more government, you must grow dependency on government, and to that end, California's state legislature has engineered a perfect storm. Every decade, more regulations buried small emerging competitive businesses, allowing the biggest and most politically compliant businesses to gain captive markets. And in complying with the state's overregulation, lacking competition, these politically favored businesses passed the increased costs of regulatory compliance on to their customers. Voila, California's energy, water, transportation, higher education, housing, and all government services became increasingly unaffordable. And as households, by the millions, could no longer afford to survive economically, government aid stepped in to fill the gap.

The numbers support this assessment. Between 2010 and 2025, when the state's total population only increased incrementally by about 1.5 million people, the number of participants in California's taxpayer-funded food aid benefits soared from 3.7 million to 5.5 million, and the state's Medi-Cal enrollment exploded from 7 million to 15 million, over one-third of the population.

Everything California's state government has done over the past 15 years has exploded commensurately. The state General Fund in 2010 was $87 billion. In 2025 it was $228 billion. Even adjusting for inflation, spending more than doubled when the total population barely budged. And what of this population?

Over the period from 2010 to 2025, nearly 10 million people moved from California to other states. The people moving into California and the people choosing to remain in California are increasingly characterized as either high-income residents who can withstand the high cost of living or low-income residents who depend on government assistance. California's Gini Coefficient, at 0.49, puts it in a virtual tie with New York and Connecticut as the states with the worst income inequality in the nation. To claim this is the fault of billionaires is a convenient lie, promulgated by the very politicians whose own policies were the true cause.

It ought to be clear to anyone who has spent any time in sunny California, a place blessed with literally every scenic amenity imaginable from alpine peaks to sandy beaches, the best wine on earth and spectacular coastal cities, that the only thing that could possibly induce them to not want to live here permanently would be an overtly hostile government. And that's exactly what has happened. Every major challenge California faces is the product of a government that has decided to serve itself instead of the people.

The model of "democracy" that California has perfected can be summed up in one sentence: overregulate an economy to make life unaffordable without government handouts, then win elections by promising more government handouts to people who can't live without them. It is unsustainable, because as the old cliche goes, pretty soon you run out of other people's money. The exodus of California's wealthiest residents is the latest iteration of this doom loop.

Far removed from idealistic fantasies sold to voters, this is the reality of progressive politics in California. Given half a chance, it will be exported to the rest of the nation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 17:00

Gold Dethrones The King: ECB Confirms Barbarous Relic Has Overtaken Treasuries As Top Global Reserve Asset

In what can only be described as the latest humiliating blow to the crumbling Pax Americana, gold has officially overtaken US government bonds as the world's top reserve asset.

The FT reports that, according to a fresh report from the European Central Bank released Tuesday, bullion now accounts for 27% of global central bank reserves at the end of 2025 - up sharply from 20% the prior year.

US Treasuries, once the untouchable king of the reserve world, have been knocked down to 22% from 25%. The euro's share remained flat at 15%.

This isn't some organic portfolio rebalancing. It's a full-scale de-dollarization revolt years in the making, turbocharged by Washington's own weaponization of the dollar.

“Geopolitical tensions continue to drive strong central bank demand for gold,” wrote ECB President Christine Lagarde in the report - in the driest possible bureaucrat speak while watching the system she helped build slowly circle the drain.

Central banks are now sitting on more than 36,000 tonnes of gold — nearly matching the peak hoarding levels seen during the final days of the Bretton Woods system (38,000 tonnes). You know, back when money was still somewhat tethered to reality.

The message from the periphery is crystal clear: trust in the US dollar as the ultimate reserve currency is eroding fast.

The catalyst? The same one we have been screaming about for years - the reckless weaponization of SWIFT and dollar reserves.

After Washington froze Russia's FX reserves following the 2022 Ukraine invasion, every finance minister from Brasília to Beijing got the memo: Never let them do this to us.

The numbers tell the story of quiet desperation.

China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been the most aggressive gold stackers since 2022.

Even Tether, the stablecoin giant, became the single largest buyer in 2025, slurping up over 100 tonnes.

Because nothing says "we believe in the system" like parking your balance sheet in physical gold while issuing dollar-pegged liabilities.

Of course, there are cracks in the narrative.

Turkey - after aggressively buying 220 tonnes post-2022 - executed one of the largest reserve drawdowns in recent memory in early 2026, selling or lending out 130 tonnes amid the fallout from the Iran war.

Even gold bugs sometimes need liquidity when things get spicy.

Still, the broader trend is unmistakable.

While dollar-denominated assets still make up 42% of reserves overall, the trajectory is brutally obvious to anyone not drinking the mainstream financial media Kool-Aid.

Gold's surge wasn't just about central bank buying (which slowed modestly to 850 tonnes in 2025 after multiple 1,000+ tonne years). It was supercharged by the metal's explosive rally, smashing through $5,500 per ounce earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the ECB couldn't resist patting itself on the back, noting the euro's "gradual but steady" gains in international usage, with euro-denominated debt issuance hitting record highs and massive capital inflows into euro assets.

Translation: At least someone still wants our funny money... for now.

The bond market's loss is gold's gain - and history suggests this kind of shift rarely ends with a whimper. When central banks themselves start treating Treasuries like a fading brand and gold like the ultimate insurance policy, the writing is on the wall for the dollar's exorbitant privilege.

The only question left is how much longer the music can keep playing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 16:40

Never Let Politicians Decide What Is True

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

We are living through an age that has abandoned the dedicated pursuit of truth. Our politicians and news personalities talk about "the narrative." Our academies teach young minds to accept "expert opinion." Our philosophers argue that truth is "subjective." Social theorists argue that truth is an "illusion" that powerful people use to control others.

Whenever I hear Democrat Senator Cory Booker all riled up on television, he's talking about "her truth," "his truth," or even "their truth" - as if a hundred conflicting descriptions of the same event could all be truthful.

During Justice Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings, Democrats called Dr. Christine Blasey Ford to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Ford claimed that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her in 1982 when both were in high school. Kavanaugh vehemently denied the allegation and argued that many parts of Ford's story didn't add up. When Kavanaugh told the senators that the whole thing was a political spectacle being used as a weapon to derail his confirmation, Senator Booker shouted, "Are you calling her some kind of political operative?" Kavanaugh calmly pointed out, "The witnesses who were there [the party at which Blasey Ford claimed the alleged assault occurred] say it didn't happen." Kavanaugh then stated that, although Blasey Ford's allegations were false and harmful, his "family has no ill will toward her."

This is how Booker responded to Justice Kavanaugh's total denial of the allegation against him: "She came forward. She sat here. She told her truth." Her truth. Not the truth. The "truth" that was most likely to help Democrats "Bork" Kavanaugh's nomination - just as then-Senator Joe Biden and fellow Democrats tried to do during Justice Clarence Thomas's confirmation hearings back in '91 when they brought in a witness who claimed that Thomas had made "unwelcome sexual comments" when the two worked together, a charge Thomas similarly and furiously denied.

What was revealing about Booker's made-for-TV moment was his disregard for whether Kavanaugh had actually done anything untoward forty years earlier in his life. He didn't care. The lack of any evidence that could credibly support Blasey Ford's allegation didn't matter. Nor did it matter that Kavanaugh flatly denied the allegation. For Booker, the only "fact" that mattered was that Blasey Ford was willing to testify to something that might sink Kavanaugh's nomination. "Her truth," even if false, made it compelling.

Booker's flippant disregard for the truth was reminiscent of President Bill Clinton's rationalization to a grand jury that he never lied about his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky when he told his staff, "There's nothing going on between us," and Jim Lehrer of PBS, "There is no improper relationship." As everyone who recalls Lewinsky's stained blue dress knows, Clinton's statements were lies. But when Clinton testified before members of a grand jury, this was his truth:

"It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is. If the - if he - if 'is' means is and never has been, that is not - that is one thing. If it means there is none, that was a completely true statement.…Now, if someone had asked me on that day, are you having any kind of sexual relations with Ms. Lewinsky, that is, asked me a question in the present tense, I would have said 'no.' And it would have been completely true."

At that moment, President Clinton proved to Americans that he had no interest in truth. He did not care if he lied. He cared only whether the American people might catch him in a lie. Whether Clinton had "plausible deniability" mattered. Whether he could confuse enough jurors over the meaning of "is" mattered. But the truth? Well, the truth is for rubes and suckers. Clinton's dissembling and Booker's disregard for what actually happened in 1982 are symptoms of the same disease: our dishonest age's abandonment of - and even hostility toward - what is true.

Politicians lie. That's hardly breaking news. What is newsworthy, though, is that our society does not even pretend to pursue truth anymore.

During COVID, we were forced to follow government mandates that made absolutely no sense. Why was it safe for Walmart to remain open when small businesses were forced to close? How could paper masks, arrows painted on the floor, plexiglass walls, or six feet of space save us from microorganisms that don't care about such things? Why should schools be closed when the virus posed the least threat to young people? Why should healthy people who had already acquired natural immunity be forced to take an experimental injection? The public was right to ask so many valid questions. Yet our government-run health organizations responded with juvenile insouciance: We're working at the speed of science! That was the "scientific" equivalent of, "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is."

We're fifteen years into this gender-bender madness during which "experts" (including too many with M.D.s) claim that biological sex is not real and that what we perceive as male or female is nothing more than a self-imposed social construct. People who have refused to play this delusional game have been fired from jobs. People looking for jobs tell obvious lies.

During Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation hearings, Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn asked, "Can you provide a definition for the word 'woman'?" The newest member of the Supreme Court replied, "No, I can't." "You can't?" Blackburn asked incredulously. The jurist who holds one of the most powerful offices in the United States claimed, "Not in this context. I'm not a biologist." This is where we are now. A judge with two Harvard degrees can't tell the American people whether she is actually a woman.

A few days ago, reporter and columnist John Stossel noted that twenty years have passed since former Vice President Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth was released in theaters. Along with a short five-minute video that includes research scientists from the Heartland Institute debunking the pseudoscience behind "climate change" fearmongering, Stossel summed up Gore's lies thusly: "NONE of his scary predictions have come true. Mt. Kilimanjaro still has snow and Glacier National Park still has glaciers." Yet included in that short video is a litany of celebrity "experts" and Democrat politicians all parroting the same lie: We have only twelve years left to live.

The "global warming" liars spent the last twenty years scaring children all over the world by telling them that they would die before being old enough to drive. Now some of those scared kids have children of their own, and the "climate change" con is still going. Prominent Democrats such as Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Richard Blumenthal have even supported legislation that would prohibit funds to federal agencies that "challenge the scientific consensus on climate change." In other words, Democrat politicians wish to outlaw the Scientific Method.

Our society does not doggedly pursue truth. It pursues ideological compliance.

Truth does not require President Joe Biden's Disinformation Governance Board to arbitrate reality for the public. Science is never "settled," as President Barack Obama claimed in his 2014 State of the Union Address. People without PhDs are quite capable of defining a "woman" and deciding for themselves whether to wear paper masks. To pretend otherwise is just another lie.

Here's the real problem, though: When our politicians, scientists, educators, and philosophers spread the lie that there is no objective truth, they transform our existence into gooey meaninglessness. Because if everything is "true," then nothing is true. And if nothing is true, then politicians will decide what is "true" for us.

Pursuing truth does not mean that we ever obtain it. It is the vigilant pursuit of truth, though, that gives us sufficient wisdom to recognize the lies and liars among us. In an age when liars rule, question everything.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 16:20

Latest Fed Beige Book Underscores "K-Shaped" Split Of US Economy

Economic activity increased at a "slight to moderate" pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while one District reported a slight decline and one reported no change, according to the latest Fed Beige Book.

The just released Beige Book - prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based on information collected on or before May 27, 2026, and is the second one to capture the effect of the war on the US economy - found that consumer spending remained mixed across districts and increasingly bifurcated across income groups amid affordability pressures, the latest confirmation of the K-shaped economy.

In keeping with an increasingly fractured economy, the anecdotes highlighted moments of weakness that indicated far more weakness that the headline assessment indicated, to wit:

• higher-income households remained resilient and less sensitive to price increase, while middle-income households were described as “squeezing more life out of every dollar before deciding to spend it,” and low-income consumers showed greater financial strain. Said strain led to reports of increased credit card usage, fewer retail visits, and stronger demand for necessities.
• Auto dealers reported softer new vehicle demand tied to affordability and fuel costs, alongside substitution toward used and hybrid vehicles.
• By contrast, manufacturing activity increased at a modest to strong pace for nine of the Districts and only one noted a slight decline from the previous period.
• Banking conditions were stable across most Districts; however, residential mortgages, consumer, and agricultural loan delinquencies were noted as rising in several of the Districts.
• Agriculture conditions were unchanged or declined for most of the Districts, with cost pressures intensifying from fuel and fertilizer spikes.
• Energy activity increased in two of the markets, but Districts reported that the outlook remains highly uncertain leading producers to hold off on materially expanding activity.
• More broadly, business outlooks for the next six months were reported to have little change in anticipated growth, as elevated uncertainty and signs of weakening consumer spending weighed on sentiment.

In terms of labor markets, the Beige Book said the following: 

• Employment showed little to no change across eleven Districts, while one District experienced modest growth.
• Manufacturing hiring was the strongest sector in several Districts, supported by defense-related activity and rising data center demand.
• Wage growth generally remained modest to moderate and largely in line with inflation. That said, Districts reported more frequent wage adjustments and cost-of-living increases to manage increasing fuel and other household cost pressures.
• Most Districts described a low-hire, low-fire environment, with workers increasingly reluctant to change jobs because of economic uncertainty.
• Hiring remained selective and primarily focused on critical roles or attrition replacement.
• Professional services occupations had mixed demand conditions, partly reflecting shifts in technological and operational changes.

As for prices, they "increased at a moderate to strong pace" overall, with most Districts reporting higher inflation than the previous report.

• Districts noted that energy-related costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East were the primary driver of inflationary pressures, with spillovers into shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizer.
• Non-labor input costs continued to rise faster than selling prices, contributing to broader concerns about margin compression.
• The ability to pass on higher costs remained mixed across sectors, particularly among consumer-facing firms.
• Consumer uncertainty and concerns about fuel prices impacting households were noted by several Districts.
• Several regions highlighted inflation mitigation strategies of firms that ranged from supply-chain optimization, product adjustments, reduced offerings, and temporarily absorbing higher costs to preserve customer demand.

Finally, here are the main highlights by Fed districts

• Boston: Economic activity grew slightly overall. Employment was unchanged, but hiring activity picked up in places, and wages showed slight gains. Cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict remained elevated, although output prices rose only slightly overall. Consumer spending edged higher, despite the strain on household budgets from elevated gas prices. The outlook was mixed.
• New York: Regional economic activity increased slightly after a sustained period of weakness. Manufacturing activity grew strongly, consumer spending increased moderately, and housing activity picked up. Employment edged up, and wage growth eased somewhat but remained modest. Selling price increases rose to the high end of the moderate range, and input prices rose strongly, driven by rising energy costs. Businesses generally expected modest improvement.
• Philadelphia: Business activity declined slightly in the current period, down from a slight increase in the last period. Employment declined somewhat, as manufacturers and nonmanufacturers reported declines in jobs overall. Wage inflation held steady at a modest pace, and firm price inflation was moderate. Expectations for future growth rose at a strong pace for manufacturers but remained below the long-run average for nonmanufacturers.
• Cleveland: Fourth District business activity increased moderately, with similar growth anticipated in the months ahead. Manufacturing demand rose robustly, while retailers faced dampened demand from higher fuel prices. Home sales continued to improve, and data center buildouts drove commercial construction demand. Employment increased modestly. While wage pressures remained moderate, increases in nonlabor costs and selling prices were robust.
• Richmond: The regional economy continued to grow modestly this cycle. Modest growth was reported for consumer spending, financial services, and nonfinancial business services. Manufacturing activity increased moderately amid continued concerns about economic stability. Employment was unchanged, on balance, and wage growth was modest. Price growth remained in a moderate range despite many comments about increased input costs.
• Atlanta: Economic activity grew at a modest pace. Employment levels were flat and wages rose slowly. Prices and costs rose at a moderate pace. While retail sales grew modestly, travel activity slowed. Commercial and residential real estate were flat to down. Transportation and manufacturing activity expanded modestly. Energy demand rose moderately.
• Chicago: Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly over the reporting period. Manufacturing demand rose moderately; consumer spending, employment, and construction and real estate activity increased slightly; business spending was flat on balance; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in economic activity. Prices rose rapidly, wages were up modestly, and financial conditions tightened slightly. Farm income expectations for 2026 were unchanged.
• St. Louis: Economic activity has slightly increased. Employment was unchanged and wage growth remained moderate. Prices have risen at a robust pace due to widespread higher nonlabor and energy costs. The outlook has slightly deteriorated, with contacts citing ongoing uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and rising fuel costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
• Minneapolis: The District expanded modestly. Prices increased sharply and input pressures were especially high. Employment grew slightly and wage growth was modest to moderate. Services, manufacturing, and construction activity grew. Oil and gas contacts reported little change in activity or plans despite oil price shocks.
• Kansas City: Economic activity in the Tenth District increased slightly, though consumer-facing firms continued to report softer demand and margin compression. Restaurants noted middle-income households have become increasingly cautious with discretionary spending. Firms also reported rising input costs, with non-energy expenses exerting the greatest upward pressure.
• Dallas: Economic activity in the Eleventh District rose modestly. Growth resumed in the service sector and picked up pace in manufacturing and banking. Retail sales weakened, energy activity ticked up, and the real estate sector was mixed. Employment was largely flat. Outlooks were tepid amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict and sharply higher transportation costs.
• San Francisco: Economic activity was stable. Employment levels were unchanged on net. Prices rose moderately, and wages grew slightly. Retail sales were roughly flat. Manufacturing activity improved somewhat, while conditions in agriculture and residential real estate weakened slightly. Activity in consumer and business services, commercial real estate, and finance was steady.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 14:55

Dispersion And Correlation Are Screaming Overbought, Downside Hedging Is Cheap

Submitted by SpotGamma

CBOE’s Dispersion Index (DSPX) is at levels only seen during Covid and the April ’25 tariff crash, while Correlation (COR1M) is near all-time lows. This divergence signals extreme positioning risk driven by the AI stock chase, and makes SPY downside hedges historically cheap.

Traders have been chasing AI related names in such heavy-handed fashion that it has now created positioning risk for the stock market.

Encapsulating this view are two popular CBOE options indexes: Dispersion (DSPX) and Correlation (COR1M).

What Are Dispersion DSPX & Correlation COR1M?

DSPX compares the options prices (IV) of the top US stocks vs SPX IV, and measures how different they are from each other. High dispersion means traders are assigning vastly different options prices to individual names. Today, we have traders frothing to chase upside in MU, SNDK, and the like, while scorning other sectors.

COR1M measures the direction of options prices for top US stocks vs the SPX. During periods of calm we generally see traders bit up call options, and sell SPX options, which creates low correlation. Conversely, when there is a lot of fear in the stock market, correlation spikes as traders sell all stocks and buy SPX options – typically puts.

Currently DSPX (blue) is at highs only seen since the Covid crash after just passing highs from the April 2025 Tariff drama. Meanwhile, COR1M (red), is nearing it’s lowest reading ever.

This gives us a massive never-before-seen divergence (black arrows) between spiking options prices (high dispersion) and only certain stocks surging higher (low correlation).

The previous highs in DSPX came during massive risk-off periods! Why? Because in both 2020 and in 2025 traders were pricing in vastly different risk due to traumatic events: in Covid cruise lines were crashing massively, whereas healthcare stocks were bid. During April ’25 it was about parsing tariff winners and losers. These heavy “winners and losers” environment created a lot of dispersion in options prices.

Today the massive dispersion is driven by the chase in AI stocks, which is now at extremes.

Notice, too, how correlation (red) spiked during those previous events as traders sold stocks sharply lower. In other words: all stocks crashed in Covid/Tariffs (i.e. high correlation), just some stocks crashed harder (high dispersion).

However correlation is at lows not seen since July of 2024, with July ’24 being the all-time low. This comes as traders are very complacent about downside risk – despite the Iran war situation.

How Do Options Prices Differ Across Stocks?

An under the hood view of this dynamic is shown with SpotGamma’s Compass tool. If a stocks call options are much more expensive than their calls, the plot lands toward the right of this chart (X axis). As traders anticipate more stock movement (IV), the plot lands higher on this chart (Y axis).

Compare SMH (yellow arrow), which is at the top right of this chart. Traders are betting that this stock is essentially going to contine crashing higher.

The tech-heavy QQQ is also in a showing a heavily bullish positioning, which traders betting that upside hot streaks continue. The big single stock constituents have effectively “infected” the Nasdaq Index with uber-bullish views.

The SPY, however, has been shifting away from call leaning positions, to put positions. However, the overall IV remains low, showing traders have simply been backing off from call positions vs strongly betting on downside.

SPX QQQ SMH Skew

The extreme readings here suggest options positioning could drive a stock volatility event, as extreme call positioning unwinds. 

This difference (or dispersion) in options prices here creates many different trade setups, with different risk-rewards for traders:

SPY put options may be relatively much cheaper that puts in SMH, or QQQ. We view these as low risk, with potentially high reward.

More dramatically, selling calls in SMH or QQQ could offer fantastic rewards, but also bring major risks if the hot upside continues.

Parsing what type of downside position that may be right for you involves mapping out:

1. How likely are the odds of a market correction
2. The potential risk vs reward of various downside trade structures

Knowing these two elements sets up how you might select and position for a potential downside move.

Join our upcoming event on June 9th: Trade Like the House, where we will be combing positional analysis with probabilities, to gain structural edge with your trading.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 14:20