Individual Economists

Tuesday: Veterans Day

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range
Bond markets are closed tomorrow for Veterans Day. When markets reopen on Wednesday, the prospects for ending the government shutdown may be coming into clearer view and that could cause enough market volatility to spill over into rates. If today's trading was any clue, a "reopening" event is more likely to put upward pressure on rates, but today's rate increase could already be reflecting those expectations. [30 year fixed 6.34%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

Stalemate? Zelensky In Denial As Russian Troops Press In On Pokrovsk

Zero Hedge -

Stalemate? Zelensky In Denial As Russian Troops Press In On Pokrovsk

As fighting has intensified in the eastern city of Pokrovsk, and with Russian troops having already penetrated some districts of the key logistical hub in the Donbass region, President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to be in denial.

On Monday he issued a statement on X claiming that Putin and his forces are at a "stalemate" and that the Russian president is more unpopular within his own country than ever. And yet even Western pundits consider that the writing is on the wall when it comes to Ukrainians seeking to hold on to Pokrovsk.

Via X: Zelensky last week visited front line areas near Pokrovsk.

"Putin is in an impasse when it comes to real successes on the battlefield. The situation looks more like a stalemate for him," Zelensky wrote. He went on to say, "First, he has radicalized public opinion toward this issue through information. Second, he promised objectives he has not achieved, so he needs to show some gains."

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has responded by saying that while Russia wants Ukraine conflict to end as soon as possible, it is only the prospect of peace negotiations which have stalled, and that the situation "stalled not because of us."

Meanwhile the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times paints a dire picture for the Ukrainian side: "Western military analysts say Russian troops have steadily edged into Pokrovsk’s southern outskirts, wearing down Ukrainian defenses and using worsening late-autumn weather to move men and equipment closer to the front," the report says. "The fight, they note, has settled into a grinding contest of attrition that has stretched Ukrainian units thin."

One Ukrainian soldier in fresh statement described that "The main problem is logistics" as "The roads are completely choked by Russian drones. No vehicle can enter or leave the city without being immediately detected."

The man told The Moscow Times, "They send about ten armored vehicles at once toward our positions" and that "Normally, we can destroy them quickly, but with the fog, rain and low winter clouds, our reaction time is slower. We destroy most of them, but some still manage to break through and drop off troops inside the city."

While Zelensky is trying to offer Pokrovsk as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, the reality is that it is being encircled. Kiev officials have over several weeks sought to deny this.

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine's eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro.

Another urgent appeal for the Western allies to "close the skies" over Ukraine:

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines. 

The city's defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia's access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will indeed be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 16:40

"We Live In The Dumbest Of Times" As The Nation Hopscotches Towards Insolvency & Breakdown

Zero Hedge -

"We Live In The Dumbest Of Times" As The Nation Hopscotches Towards Insolvency & Breakdown

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Winter Storm Watch

“We live in the dumbest of times and Democrats are truly led by the dumbest of all of us.”

- Sean Davis, The Federalist

You can suppose the government will re-open this week, and then what?

It could close back down in January when the latest funding patch runs out. And then what?

Another shut-down and another continuing resolution?

The nation hopscotches toward insolvency and breakdown.

The sorrows of Mr. Trump mount as his enemies devise ever-novel punishments for the people of this land. The mutual animus of the two parties spirals upward like the vortex of a developing superstorm.

It’s the nature of crisis that the outcome is uncertain and the possibilities seem mostly dire. And so it is the nature of heroic action to overcome all that and stick a landing in some safe place out of harm’s way.

Can we convert the economy of financial chicanery to an economy of purposeful production without provoking a ruinous crash of assets and debt obligations?

The most thoughtful observers doubt it.

It’s really only a question of time when the floor you were standing on gives way and suddenly everything is in freefall.

The precious metals are sending out a distress signal in the futures charts this morning, even while the equities markets worldwide melt up. That’s got to be a bad combo. Something is going wrong with money everywhere. The overarching question is: will money continue to be money? (That is, will it be worth anything?) Money that is increasingly worthless leads to some of the worst social and political outcomes imaginable.

The authorities of the money world only pretend to be in control of the forces behind money and its movements. Money is subject to the laws of physics like everything else: actions and reactions. . . momentum / inertia . . . entropy. As economist Herb Stein sagely observed a half-century ago: “Things that can’t go on, stop.” An awful lot of things in our world need to stop if we want to continue the project of civilization. We can see, to our distress, that many things are actually stopping: Truck shipments of goods, idle freight trains, stores closing, closed down construction sites, restaurants empty. That tends toward rents, loans, mortgages not being paid. That leads to daisy-chains of broken obligations. Inflation reverses to deflation. Money starts to disappear.

In a deflation, money will stop losing its value. The catch is, people will have less money. There will be less of it around, chasing whatever goods get produced. Some people will have no money at all. The government will almost certainly attempt to counter that by giving them money created out of nothing. It will also give money to broke institutions like banks, and perhaps to businesses deemed “critical” to society. That will cycle back into money losing more value. We’ve been through this cycle a number of times in this young and turbulent century.

You’ve probably noticed that our country is seething with pissed-off citizens. All the machinations of the money authorities pretending to manage money have produced perversities, distortions, and spooky unintended consequences. Things manifest strangely. For instance, medical care is a godawful mess, namely, the ACA, Affordable Care Act. Got an acute problem like abdominal pain? We can give you an appointment three months from now, the HMO says when you call? Are they insane? Do they not hear themselves speaking? And you’re paying, like, $20-K-a-year for the family’s health insurance, so-called. (Hey, you can always go sit in the ER for eighteen hours with plenty of illegal aliens to keep you company.)

Mr. Trump just proffered a novel gambit: take away federal subsidies and tax credits from the ACA-linked insurance companies and send the money to US citizens to spend directly on doctors, drugs, and surgeries, or on private insurance outside the orbit of Obamacare.

Nobody really knows how that might work, but you could allow that sometimes horrible problems call for far-out responses. Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) was a major plank in the president’s campaign platform. Everybody knows that Obamacare functions as an obstacle to being healthy. The entire purpose of it was to make medicine both unaffordable and unavailable. It’s been operating for going on fifteen years, failing spectacularly in plain sight.

The Democratic Party proposed to fix it, via their shut-down stunt, by enrolling onto Obamacare the millions of illegal aliens they ushered into the country at the cost of a trillion-plus dollars.

Some fix.

This is why they are known as the Party of Chaos. You can depend on the Democratic Party to always make a bad situation worse.

The shut-down has even led to chaos within the Democratic Party itself as members now denounce their own leadership.

This would be a good time for President Trump to beat them with a stick as hard as possible. Ending the silent filibuster would be a good start — since the Democrats aim to do it anyway. Of course, that is up to Mr. Thune, the Senate Majority Leader. A fire needs to be lit under his well-tailored ass. Then, pass some really juicy legislation starting with election reform entailing proof-of-citizenship to vote, paper ballots, end of mail-in ballots (except for traditional absentee voting), and do away with the janky vote-counting machines. That would be an excellent start. Proceed from there.

As for those troubled financial markets and shaky money venues, they will do what they will do. If they wobble and crater, great opportunities will open up to decisively fix so much that has gone wrong in our country. You might not know it, considering the drift of recent years, but there are still a lot of capable people in this country ready to roll up their sleeves and go to work repairing what is broken.

*  *  *

Now live: JHK’s new novel, a comic romp set during the week of the tragic JFK Assassination, November 1963. Amusing excerpt from the book at this link.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 16:20

Energy Secretary: Trump's Reinvigoration & Expansion Of Coal Industry 'Critical To Our Country'

Zero Hedge -

Energy Secretary: Trump's Reinvigoration & Expansion Of Coal Industry 'Critical To Our Country'

Via American Greatness,

The Trump administration has announced the $625 million expansion of a number of programs to boost America’s coal industry by keeping coal-fired power plants open, lowering energy costs and keeping the U.S. competitive globally.

U.S. Energy Secretary Christopher Wright made the announcement last week on FOX Business’ “Mornings with Maria,” telling host Maria Bartiromo that the coal industry is “critical to America’s industrial might.”

Wright told Fox Business that the U.S. has “awesome coal reserves” that could be put to productive use.

Coal is the third largest source of electricity in the U.S.after natural gas and nuclear power, according to Wright.

The Energy Secretary also noted that coal is the “backbone of steel production” and that it’s critical for cement production as well.

“Coal just makes the world go round,” Wright told Fox Business, “And they’ve tried to strangle it, particularly the Biden administrations, starting with the Obama administration.”

Wright explained that the $625 million will be used to upgrade existing coal plants and to keep them open, while also providing some new pollution controls to ensure the power plants “run cleaner and better.”

Wright insisted that the coal industry has a long future despite the efforts of those who wish that it would go away, stating, “It’s critical to our country.”

“We’re going to export more of that coal, we’re going to use it for American industry, particularly as we reindustrialize, and it’s going to continue to provide 15%-16% of our electricity and enable us to reindustrialize and win the AI race,” Wright said.

The bulk of the $625 million spending will be used to modernize coal plants with reliable electric power and capacity, while another $175 million will be used to fund projects to bring cheaper, more reliable energy to rural communities.

According to Fox Business, $50 million will be used to upgrade wastewater management systems to extend the lifespan of coal plants and reduce operating costs with another $25 million to enable coal power plants to operate on dual fuel and $25 million more to support investments that will maintain boiler efficiency and reliability when utilizing 100% natural gas.

Wright told Fox Business that “President Trump got elected to bring back common sense” and that “coal is a huge part of our electricity grid today” and that pledged to “stop closing” all the coal plants that the Biden administration and some Democratic governors had decided to mothball.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 15:40

Transgender Virginia Teacher Posts Rainbow 'Gun' Pointed At Person's Head, Demands Pronouns Be 'Put Back In Emails'

Zero Hedge -

Transgender Virginia Teacher Posts Rainbow 'Gun' Pointed At Person's Head, Demands Pronouns Be 'Put Back In Emails'

Authored by Dave Huber via TheCollegeFix.com,

A reportedly transgender high school history teacher in Virginia is on leave after posting an image to his Instagram of a “rainbow gun” pointed at a person’s head and the demand “PUT THE PRONOUNS BACK IN THE EMAIL.”

The image, posted on X by Libs of TikTok, depicts an arm holding a pistol (both colored as a rainbow) held at the back of a man’s head, with the “pronoun” demand written directly above.

According to WSET, Sabrina Morris (pictured) teaches at George Washington High School in the Danville Public Schools (Virginia) district. A district spokesperson said local police are involved in the matter, and that Morris “will not be present on school grounds while this matter is under investigation.”

Sabrina Morris; Libs of TikTok/X

“We are aware of a recent social media post involving one of our employees that has caused concern within our school community. We take such matters very seriously, as the content shared does not reflect the values or expectations of professionalism that guide our division,” the spokesperson said.

“Danville Public Schools remains committed to providing a safe and respectful environment for all students and staff. Due to this being a personnel matter, no additional information can be shared at this time.”

Libs of TikTok/X

The school district appears to have scrubbed Morris’ information for the George Washington HS website, and his Instagram — which notes he uses “she/her/hers” pronouns and describes himself as a “PhD / teacher / millennial / kinda cute” — has been set to private.

Based on text posted alongside the gun image (below, highlight circle added), it appears Morris got it from the Dream for America Instagram account, which purports to “inspir[e] young Americans to defend democracy & fight fascism online, on-campus, & across the country.”

Libs of TikTok/X

The College Fix asked Dream for America chief William He via email if the image indeed originated from his organization’s social media, and he replied that it indeed was “briefly shared” on the Dream for America account “but it was intended as comedic commentary on recent events — not as an endorsement of violence or hostility toward any group.”

He added “Once we realized how the image could be interpreted, it was immediately removed” and that his group “stands firmly for inclusion, empathy, and respect […] never to mock, threaten, or devalue others.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 15:00

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in October

Calculated Risk -

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Falls Back 7% in October
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 7.1% in October to 283.3 (2000=100) from the upwardly revised reading of 304.8. Over the month, commercial planning declined 2.9% and institutional planning slowed by 15.2%. Year-to-date, the DMI is up 35% from the average reading over the same period in 2024.

“After several months of record-breaking levels, planning momentum slowed in October,” stated Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Activity remains solid across the board, especially for data centers and hospitals. However, recent growth should not solely be attributed to gains in real activity. Anticipated increases in labor and material costs are also driving up project expenses and are inflating the overall trend in the DMI. In the coming months, Dodge anticipates activity to continue to decelerate on average, especially as macroeconomic risks continue to mount.”

On the commercial side, activity slowed down for warehouses and hotels, while planning momentum was sustained for data centers, traditional office buildings and retail stores. On the institutional side, education and healthcare planning have slowed down, after strong activity in recent months. Meanwhile, recreational and public planning continued to grow. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 52% when compared to October 2024. The commercial segment was up 54% (+43% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 49% over the same period.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 283.3 in October, down from 304.8 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.  
Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Big Government Is The Problem, Not The Solution

Zero Hedge -

Big Government Is The Problem, Not The Solution

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Socialism has never reduced prices or improved affordability. Never. Interventionism is the root of all inflationary and scarcity problems. Only competition, open markets and technology can reduce prices and ease the bottlenecks created by governments through asphyxiating regulations and taxes.

Zohran Mamdani stated that “there is no problem big enough that the government cannot solve.” The evidence is the opposite. There is no problem that government intervention does not make worse. Government intervention is the cause of inflationary crises, not the cure.

Uncontrolled spending is printing money and inevitably leads to the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency, lower real wages and higher inflation. Add to it regulations that limit competition and affordable supply and taxes that make small business uncompetitive and the distortions created by governments playing God led to chronic inflation.

The explanation is simple. Economic challenges require competition, creative destruction and open markets to generate benefits for all citizens. Giving increasing economic power to bureaucrats that have no skin in the game and always resort to higher taxes and more spending is the recipe for stagnation and a debt crisis.

Mamdami fails to explain that socialist France has the biggest government in the OECD, the highest taxes, and a hugely intervened economy. It is in stagnation; it has a deep debt crisis, a high cost of living, and soaring social discontent. Not only France. The evidence of the failure of the “social state” is clear in Germany, the UK, Canada and many other developed economies that forgot that wealth is not a cake to divide. You either create wealth or destroy it.

Many cite China as an example of socialism that works. However, China does not prove that socialism works; it proves that abandoning socialism works. China’s economic system is what many socialists, like Mamdani, Sanders or AOC, call “rampant capitalism”. In fact, some of China’s most complicated challenges, like overcapacity, come from state central planning.

At the core of the problem is the idea that the government is a better allocator of wealth and prosperity than the market. The evidence is overwhelming. An interventionist government will always overspend, malinvest and pass the cost to taxpayers and citizens because the politicians do not suffer the consequences of their mistakes. Socialism is always justified based on its alleged good intentions, while capitalism is criticised for its worst results. The trick? Once you try socialism, you cannot get it out when it fails, as it always does.

Interventionism always erodes prosperity, undermines freedom, and destabilises the very foundations that politicians claim to defend. However, by the time citizens realise they have been tricked, the politicians’ power is too large.

Mamdani’s sentence rests on the view that bureaucratic action can overcome any obstacle by sheer will and allegedly unlimited resources. However, history repeatedly shows that attempts at imposing big government control led to negative consequences. Government spending is out of control and interventionist administrations refuse to cut expenditures or balance budgets. Instead, they increase bureaucratic power, betting on limitless spending, knowing the long-term costs are passed down to citizens rather than politicians.

Politicians benefit from increasing state power; this incentive perpetuates cycles of intervention that leave a trail of debt while politicians reap the benefits.

Socialism has only one objective: control. The goal is to create dependent citizens that must bow down to politicians and keep quiet because they have no power. Only the few politically connected thrive at the expense of the middle class, small businesses, and workers, who suffer the costs of inflation, taxation, and lost opportunity.

Socialist politicians always blame the rich, but the wealthy are not their objective, as they know they can leave the country and settle elsewhere. What socialist politicians really want is to destroy the middle class, because independent and economically free citizens are critical and do not want more government intervention. The middle class must be obliterated and create a dependent subclass.

The easiest way to end the middle class is with massive state spending on so-called “stimulus plans” that bleed small businesses dry and destroy the middle class via inflation, taxes, and bureaucracy, leaving only debt and stagnation.

One of the most destructive outcomes of government intervention is chronic inflation. Rothbard explains how the government, by issuing currency to pay for rising deficits, imposes a “hidden tax” on everyone who holds money or earns wages. Politicians are never concerned about debts and deficits because inflation stealthily erodes obligations by devaluing currency, shifting the financial burden to working families. This constant debasement is not a fatality but a deliberate policy choice that allows states to live far beyond their means, become larger, and create a dependent subclass through the erosion of purchasing power and the impoverishment of society.

Governments in social democracies have exceeded their three limits:

  • Economic Limit: Government interventionism distorts prices, weakens real wages, and perverts incentives. Rothbard shows that state intervention necessarily misallocates resources because it cannot rationally price goods or services absent market signals. The result is inefficiency, waste, and lost opportunities for innovation and prosperity.

  • Fiscal Limit: Interventionists operate under the illusion of unlimited fiscal resources, running chronic deficits, and claiming they can “stimulate” economies without cost. But as government liabilities rise, interest expenses soar, limiting growth and crowding out private investment. Tax increases are not a tool to reduce debt but to justify it, and the end result is stagnation and a debt crisis.

  • Inflationary Limit: To finance their ambitions, states print ever more money, perpetuating inflation. No interventionist government voluntarily reduces spending or cuts debt; they simply debase their currency, eroding savings and wages. Thus, they undermine confidence in money itself, destroying the economy in a short period of time.

Instead of enhancing equality, opportunity, or prosperity, state interventionism erodes them. Socialism, under the disguise of protecting the most vulnerable, destroys the middle class and makes the poor even poorer. Policies to force equality via intervention only “level down”; bureaucracies grow while innovation and productivity slump.

Government control does not lead to progress but to stagnation and currency destruction.

Chronic inflation, fiscal imbalances and economic stagnation are not solved by government intervention; they are created by it. Furthermore, when citizens find that socialism fails, they cannot escape from it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 14:20

Jewish FDNY Commissioner Resigned Just Hours After Mamdani's Election Victory

Zero Hedge -

Jewish FDNY Commissioner Resigned Just Hours After Mamdani's Election Victory

FDNY Commissioner Robert Tucker resigned last Wednesday morning, less than 12 hours after Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City mayoral race over Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, according to the Daily News and Firehouse.

In a letter to Mayor Eric Adams, Tucker said his final day will be Dec. 19. “Between now and then, I will continue to lead the greatest fire department in the world and will ensure an orderly transition,” he wrote.

A department source said Tucker has had no discussions with Mamdani’s team about remaining in his post.

The source added that Tucker, who is Jewish and a Zionist, believed he wouldn’t align well with Mamdani, a Democratic socialist who faced criticism during the campaign for remarks some viewed as anti-Semitic.

The report notes that Tucker, CEO of a private security firm and longtime member of the FDNY Foundation board, was appointed commissioner in August 2024, succeeding Laura Kavanagh, the department’s first female commissioner.

Tucker’s resignation marks another major shift within city leadership following a heated election season that highlighted deep political divides. Mamdani, a Queens assemblyman known for his progressive stances on housing and policing, ran on a platform of redistributing city resources and increasing public investment in social services. His victory signaled a sharp turn from Adams’ more centrist approach to public safety and governance.

During his brief tenure, Tucker focused on strengthening the FDNY’s recruitment pipeline, modernizing training programs, and improving firefighter wellness and mental health resources.

He also oversaw initiatives to expand diversity within the department and enhance coordination during large-scale emergencies, earning praise from union leaders and city officials alike.

On Wednesday, Tucker was traveling to Israel to meet with the Israel Fire and Rescue Authority and is expected to comment on his resignation upon returning.

Mamdani is now set to become New York City’s first Muslim and youngest mayor in a century, having won 50% of the vote in Tuesday’s election.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 14:05

Government Shutdown Delayed Some $5BN In Weapons Transfers To Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

Government Shutdown Delayed Some $5BN In Weapons Transfers To Ukraine

Via The Libertarian Institute

The government shutdown has slowed arms transfers to NATO allies and Ukraine. Some State Department officials involved in ensuring weapons sales are completed have been furloughed. 

Axios reports the words of officials who explained AMRAAM and HIMARS missile shipments to Denmark, Croatia, and Poland have been delayed. Many of these arms will then be transferred to Ukraine. 

Via Reuters

"This is actually really harming both our allies and partners and US industry to actually deliver a lot of these critical capabilities overseas," a senior State Department official told Axios.

The White House blamed Democrats for the slowdown in a statement to Axios: "Democrats are holding up critical weapons sales, including to our NATO allies, which harms the U.S. industrial base and puts our and our partners’ security at risk," State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said. 

And the Ukrainian publication Kyiv Post noted:

Even as the Senate moved toward reopening the government, the shutdown’s ripple effects continued to reverberate across national security circles.

Alarming reports indicated the funding lapse had frozen more than $5 billion in US weapons exports intended for NATO allies and Ukraine.

After taking office, President Donald Trump canceled Joe Biden’s policy of shipping billions of dollars in weapons every month to Ukraine. Trump has authorized NATO states to buy US weapons for Ukraine. 

While Trump has ended direct weapon transfers to Ukraine, he has continued to fuel the war by providing Kiev with intelligence for long-range strikes inside Russia and ramped up sanctions on Moscow

Russian media taking note: "Even routine arms deals are struck."

On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to end the war on his first day in office. Trump has failed to make progress towards that promise as the White House recently called off a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hungary.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 12:20

Supreme Court Rejects Challenge To Its 2015 Gay Marriage Ruling

Zero Hedge -

Supreme Court Rejects Challenge To Its 2015 Gay Marriage Ruling

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court on Nov. 10 rejected a challenge to its landmark 2015 ruling that requires all states to grant licenses for same-sex marriages.

The nation’s highest court declined to grant the petition in Davis v. Ermold in an unsigned order. The court did not explain its decision.

The petition was filed by former Rowan County, Kentucky, clerk Kim Davis, who, a decade ago, would not sign marriage licenses for same-sex couples.

Davis declined to sign the licenses after the Supreme Court ruled 5–4 in June 2015 in a case called Obergefell v. Hodges that the 14th Amendment to the Constitution requires all states to grant licenses for same-sex marriages and recognize same-sex marriages carried out in other states.

Days after the Obergefell decision, David Moore and David Ermold sought a marriage license from Davis. She declined, saying she was acting “under God’s authority” and advised the couple to seek a marriage license in another county.

The men sued for civil rights violations, seeking damages. A federal district court issued an order in a separate case directing Davis to issue marriage licenses.

Not long after the Obergefell decision, Kentucky’s then-governor, Steve Beshear, directed all county clerks, including Davis, to “license and recognize the marriages of same-sex couples,” the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit recounted in its March 6 ruling that upheld a civil judgment against Davis.

Davis took the position at the time that her office would not issue any marriage licenses “until the state passed legislation to grant her an accommodation,” the ruling said.

While Davis’s appeal of the court order was pending, Kentucky enacted a law allowing clerks’ names to be left off marriage licenses. Davis accepted this and asked for her appeal to be dismissed.

The Sixth Circuit declined to dismiss the appeal because the plaintiffs were seeking damages.

The legal proceeding went on for years before a federal jury awarded $100,000 in total compensatory damages to Moore and Ermold.

The Sixth Circuit did not disturb the jury verdict and held that Davis was not entitled to immunity from suit as a government official, the ruling said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 11:40

Samantha McLemore on MiB Live at the Phillips Collection

The Big Picture -

 

I am very excited about an upcoming MiB Live interview with Samantha McLemore. She may not be a household name, but she is a rock star in the finance world.

She succeeded the legendary fund manager Bill Miller, with whom she collaborated for two decades. Miller famously beat the market for 15 consecutive years, until the GFC ended his streak.

McLemore has taken over the stewardship of the Opportunity Equity strategy, which she now manages solely following Miller’s retirement. She is also Chief Investment Officer of Patient Capital Management, and a recognized leader in value investing.

McLemore has received multiple Sauren Gold medals for outstanding fund management (2019–2021).​ She was included in Baltimore’s “40 Under 40” in 2017, She has outperformed the S&P 500 YTD, and over 1-Year, 3-Years and since the funds inception (12/30/1999).

Recognized for her disciplined, opportunistic approach and her work/life balance as a fund manager and mother of three, this promises to be a wonderful conversation.

A few free tickets are still available. Here are the details:

What: Bloomberg City Spotlight: DC

When: November 18th, 5:00 pm

Format: Podcast Taping in front of a Live Audience

Location: Phillips Collection

For those people interested in learning about how RWM works with clients or information about the event, reach out to us at Info AT RitholtzWealth.com.

 

Can’t wait to see you in D.C.

 

The post Samantha McLemore on MiB Live at the Phillips Collection appeared first on The Big Picture.

100 Christian Leaders Urge Trump To Save Syria's Christians As He Hosts President Sharaa

Zero Hedge -

100 Christian Leaders Urge Trump To Save Syria's Christians As He Hosts President Sharaa

Syian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose al-Qaeda name is Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is being welcomed in Washington Monday where he's meeting President Trump at the White House, which is a first for any Syrian head of state in history.

But just before this, some 100 influential Christian leaders sent a letter to President Trump calling on him to raise the issue of minority rights and protection of Syria's ancient Christian community.

Syrian church in the heart of Damascus' walled 'Old City' district.

The letter was led by Dede Laugesen, president of Save the Persecuted Christians. The letter, submitted to the White House Friday, highlighted that Trump has made the protection of persecuted Christians in foreign lands like the Middle East and Africa a priority, and that the issue must be pressed firmly with Sharaa. Former member of Trump's cabinet, Dr. Ben Carson, was among those who signed the urgent letter.

The Syrian leader who overthrew longtime secular Baathist President Bashar al-Assad (who fled to Russia) last December has overseen a campaign of mass killings and kidnappings targeting non-Sunnis, including Druze, Alawites, and Christians - particularly along the Syrian coast and in the south.

Sharaa/Jolani's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, an AQ spin-off) had starting in 2015 cleansed Idlib city of its Christians, and St. Mary Orthodox Church was destroyed and taken over. Chechens and other foreign fighters took over the homes of Christian families as well. It's a disgusting reality that this was all done with the tacit support of the CIA to these radical jihadi groups in the north, for the sake of pursuing regime change in Damascus.

The Christian leaders wrote, "We urge you to address directly the massacre of Christians, Kurds, Druze, and Alawites in Syria, notably in the greater Suwayda area. These religious minorities face ongoing violence, death, displacement, starvation, and water and medical deprivation—all while innocent women and children are held hostage by ISIS terrorists."

Syria Crucified: Stories of Modern Martyrdom in an Ancient Christian Land

"Mr. President, we respectfully request that you secure President al-Sharaa’s commitment to opening a secure humanitarian corridor from Hader to Suwayda in southern Syria. This corridor will enable safe and secure aid delivery and civilian evacuation, signaling the new government’s commitment to minority rights and stability," the letter stated.

Conservative commentator Laura Loomer, who has in the recent past demonstrated a significant degree of influence at the Trump White House, speaks bluntly in a fresh social media post while addressing Trump:

As I have reported, under Julani’s direction as the new President of Syria, he and his militant jihadist forces have been massacring religious minorities and he has blocked a humanitarian corridor from being opened between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights for the sake of delivering emergency and life saving aid to the persecuted religious minorities. Julani is an ISIS terrorist.

If President Trump is going to normalize him on US soil at the White House of all places, he must demand that Julani stop killing religious minorities.

I spent the entire week in Israel and on the Syrian border speaking with members of the Druze community in Majdal Shams, who told me how they and their families have been negatively impacted by Julani’s Islamic terrorism.

It wasn't long ago that Sharaa had a $10 million US bounty on his head, but his terrorism designation has recently been removed, also to facilitate his travel to the United States. This was also the case with his foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani, literally a founder of al-Qaeda in Syria.

Already, since Jolani came to power at least dozens of primarily Orthodox Christians have been slaughtered, including a bombing of a historic Damascus church which killed 25 and wounded over 60 more in June.

The fruits of CIA's Timber Sycamore program:

The U.S. State Dept.’s own numbers: read the full report HERE at STATE.GOV

Another irony is that these "former" terrorists are being hosted in the White House a mere day before Veteran's Day, and Jolani had even been at one point an emissary of the Islamic State's top leader. These are ISI (Islamic State in Iraq) militants who at one point were fighting and killing American soldiers. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 11:20

November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:
Negative Equity Rates Have Increased

• Negative equity rates, after years at record lows, have risen slightly toward more typical levels

• As of Q4, 875K mortgage holders (1.6%) owe more on their homes than they are worth, the highest rate in three years but comparable to pre-COVID levels and long-term averages outside the Great Financial Crisis

• The share of borrowers with limited equity has also increased, reaching 6.9% in September ‒ the highest since mid-2020 but still below long-term averages
...
ICE Home Price Index• While overall negative equity rates remain low, certain markets are showing signs of concern, particularly in the Gulf Coast of Florida and Austin, Texas

In Cape Coral, Fla., where home prices have dropped 15% from their peak, 11% of mortgages are underwater, including over one-third of those originated in 2023 and 2024

• In Austin, with prices down 21% from their highs, nearly 7% of mortgages are underwater, including about 25% of loans from 2022 and over 15% from 2023 and 2024

• Borrowers with low down payment FHA/VA loans in these areas face even higher negative equity rates, exceeding 60% in some cases

• In contrast, markets like Bridgeport, Hartford, New Haven (Conn.), San Jose, Los Angeles, Boston, and New York City, which have resilient home prices and larger down payments, have virtually no negative equity
emphasis added
There is much more in the article.

Key Events This Week: Jobs Report Could Come As Soon As Thursday Once Govt Reopens; Fed Speakers Galore

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Week: Jobs Report Could Come As Soon As Thursday Once Govt Reopens; Fed Speakers Galore

As DB's Jim Reid puts it poetically, it looks like white smoke is finally emerging from Capitol Hill as late on Sunday night in the Senate there was a 60-40 procedural vote to advance a bill that would end the shutdown as enough moderate Democrats broke ranks with party leadership to progress a bill that would fund Agriculture, Veterans Affairs and the operations of Congress for the full-year, even if other agencies would only be funded through to January 30th. It seems to persuade the moderate Democrats to support the bill, a vote has been promised in December in extending the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that run out at year-end. The timetable from here is slightly less clear but we could get a full vote today or tomorrow assuming no procedural delays.

Probability markets are starting to price in the end game with a 88% expectation that the shutdown will be over by November 16th on Polymarket, a contract high.

Once the government reopens, markets will face a surge of delayed data releases. Historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown suggests that September’s employment report could be among the first to hit the wires, potentially within three business days of reopening. DB expects payrolls to rebound sharply, with headline and private payrolls both forecast at +75k, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. So we could get this Thursday or Friday. The October CPI print is also scheduled for Thursday although it is likely that that number won't come on time, even if the government reopens before then.

Expanding upon this week, on the policy front, the Federal Reserve calendar is busy but unlikely to deliver major surprises. Today brings remarks from St. Louis Fed’s Musalem, who has maintained a hawkish tone. Wednesday is the most crowded day, featuring speeches from Williams, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins across conferences on Treasury markets, fintech and community banking. Later in the week, Musalem and Hammack will join fireside chats, while Schmid and Bostic close out Friday with discussions on energy and economic trends.

Beyond Capitol Hill and the Fed, investors will monitor the Supreme Court following last week’s oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case. Judging by the tone of questioning, the Court appears skeptical of the Administration’s position, suggesting a likely affirmation of lower court rulings. A decision could potentially come quickly, but history points to a longer timeline— with the average time line around 15 weeks - but it could stretch out to the end of the term in June.

While US politics and data dominate, global developments will also shape sentiment. In Europe, the UK releases third-quarter GDP on Thursday and labour market data on Tuesday, alongside inflation prints in Denmark and Norway (today) and Germany’s ZEW survey (tomorrow). In Asia, China has its monthly economic activity data dump on Friday. Japan will publish the Economy Watchers Survey tomorrow and producer price inflation on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain in focus globally. In the United States, results from Cisco, Walt Disney and Applied Materials will be closely watched. European heavyweights reporting include Siemens, Deutsche Telekom and Enel, while Asia sees Tencent, JD.com, SoftBank and Sony. With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported, the bulk of earnings season is behind us, but these names will still provide important signals on sectoral health and global demand. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings for the third quarter — about 80% of the index by market cap — have grown the bottom line by 14.6%, effectively doubling what analysts were expecting. 

source: Earnings Whispers

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday November 10

  • Data: Japan September leading index, coincident index, BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, October bank lending, Denmark and Norway October CPI
  • Central banks: BoJ’s Nakagawa speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
  • Earnings: CoreWeave, Barrick Mining, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Venture Global, Paramount Skydance, Rigetti Computing, Maplebear
  • Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
  • Other: COP30 starts in Brazil (through Nov 21)

Tuesday November 11

  • Data: UK September average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, October jobless claims change, Japan October Economy Watchers survey, M2, M3, Germany November Zew survey, Eurozone November Zew survey
  • Central banks: ECB’s Vujcic and Kocher speak, BoE’s Greene speaks
  • Earnings: SoftBank, Sony, Sea, Munich Re, Vodafone, Oklo
  • Other: US Veterans Day, G7 foreign ministers meeting (through Nov 12)

Wednesday November 12

  • Data: Japan October PPI, machine tool orders, Germany September current account balance, Italy September industrial production, Canada September building permits
  • Central banks: Fed’s Barr, Williams, Waller, Miran, Paulson and Bostic speak, ECB’s Schnabel and Guindos speak, BoE’s Pill speaks
  • Earnings: Cisco, TransDigm, Infineon, Flutter Entertainment, RWE, Bayer, On Holding
  • Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn)
  • Other: US Treasury market conference

Thursday November 13

  • Data: UK October RICS house price balance, September monthly GDP, Eurozone September industrial production, Australia October labour force survey
  • Central banks: Fed’s Musalem speaks, ECB’s economic bulletin, ECB’s Villeroy and Elderson speak, BoE’s Greene speaks
  • Earnings: Tencent, Siemens, Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Deutsche Telekom, Enel, Merck KGaA, JD.com, Burberry
  • Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn)

Friday November 14

  • Data: China October retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Japan September Tertiary industry index, Italy September trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone September trade balance, Q3 employment, Canada September manufacturing sales
  • Central banks: Fed’s Bostic and Schmid speak, ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Vujcic speak
  • Earnings: Allianz, Cie Financiere Richemont, Siemens Energy
  • Other: EU’s economic and financial affairs council on the EU budget

Turning just to the US, Goldman says that assuming the shutdown ends in mid-November, the bank expects the release of the September employment report a few days after reopening. The statistical agencies will announce new release dates for the other postponed releases in advance. If the BLS decides to release the October employment report, expect its release along with the November report either on schedule on December 5 or delayed by one week.

Monday, November 10 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
  • 09:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will be interviewed on Bloomberg TV. On November 6, Musalem said that the cuts at the September and October FOMC meetings were "appropriate, but we have to be very careful to continue to lean against above-target inflation, while continuing to provide some insurance to the labor market." He also said, "Monetary policy is somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral, and it's getting close to neutral in terms of financial conditions."

Tuesday, November 11 

  • 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, October (consensus 98.2, last 98.8)
  • 10:25 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on AI and innovation at the Singapore FinTech Festival. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On October 9, Barr said that “although several data points indicate that the labor market may be roughly in balance, we also know there has been a sharp drop in job creation since May, which suggests risks to the labor market going forward.” However, he also noted that the “Federal Reserve's price stability goal faces significant risks,” adding that he is “skeptical of assurances that we should fully look through higher inflation from import tariffs.”

Wednesday, November 12 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
  • 09:20 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: NY Fed President John Williams will deliver the keynote address at the 2025 US Treasury Market Conference. Speech text is expected. On October 9, Williams said that “the risk of a further slowdown in the labor market is something I’m very focused on.” He added that “if anything, the information suggested that the tariffs effects have been a little smaller than I expected,” highlighting that “there are more downside risks to the labor market and employment.”
  • 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak at the Ninth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Speech text is expected. On October 13, President Paulson noted that her “base case is that tariffs will increase the price level, but they won’t leave a lasting imprint on inflation” and that “given this base case, monetary policy should look through tariff effects on prices.” She added that “over the rest of this year, I view easing along the lines of the median Summary of Economic Projections policy path as appropriate.”
  • 10:20 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on payments at the Philadelphia Fed's Ninth Annual Fintech Conference. Q&A is expected. On October 31, Governor Waller said that “the biggest concern we have right now is the labor market.” He added that “we know inflation is going to come back down, so this is why I’m still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that’s what all the data is telling me to do.”
  • 12:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak about economic trends at the Atlanta Economics Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On October 31, Bostic said, "I was able to get behind [the cut at the October meeting] because I still think we're in restrictive territory and that, to me, is the most important thing. We can't really forget that inflation is a significant problem, and we have to get that back down to our 2 percent target. I think we can still do it, but with each step we get closer and closer to neutral in ways that make me uncomfortable."
  • 12:30 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a fireside chat at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. Q&A is expected. On November 6, Miran said, "I would expect based on current information that we end up cutting in December, but nothing is absolutely guaranteed at the end of the day." 
  • 04:00 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak at the Boston Fed's 4th Annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference. Speech text is expected. On October 14, Collins said, "With inflation risks somewhat more contained, but greater downside risks to employment, it seems prudent to normalize policy a bit further this year to support the labor market."

Thursday, November 13 

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 8 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, GS estimate of last 228k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 1 (GS estimate of last 1,954k)
  • 12:15 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at a fireside chat on the US economy and monetary policy at the Evansville Regional Economic Partnership’s Economic Impact and Policy Forum. Q&A is expected. 
  • 12:20 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak in a fireside chat at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh. Q&A is expected. On November 6, Hammack said, "After last week’s meeting, I see monetary policy as barely restrictive, if at all, and it’s not obvious to me that monetary policy should do more at this time." 

Friday, November 14 

  • 09:20 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated discussion at the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management annual conference.
  • 10:05 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Kansas City Fed and Dallas Fed's energy conference. Q&A is expected. In his dissent essay on October 31, Schmid said, "By my assessment, the labor market is largely in balance, the economy shows continued momentum, and inflation remains too high. I view the stance of policy as only modestly restrictive. In this context, I judged it appropriate to maintain the policy rate at this week’s meeting."

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 11:10

Trump Floats $10k Bonus To 'Patriotic' Air Traffic Controllers As FAA Freezes Private Jet Travel At 12 Major Airports

Zero Hedge -

Trump Floats $10k Bonus To 'Patriotic' Air Traffic Controllers As FAA Freezes Private Jet Travel At 12 Major Airports

Update (1045ET): Shortly after reports that the FAA will prohibit private aviation travel at a dozen major airports, President Trump wrote on X, urging "All Air Traffic Controllers must get back to work, NOW!!!" threatening that "Anyone who doesn’t will be substantially "docked.”"

Furthermore he offered 'patriotic' controllers, who did not skip work, a sizable bonus: 

"For those Air Traffic Controllers who who were GREAT PATRIOTS, and didn’t take ANY TIME OFF for the "Democrat Shutdown Hoax,” I will be recommending a BONUS of $10,000 per person for distinguished service to our Country."

For the less than patriotic controllers, he had a different message:

"For those that did nothing but complain, and took time off, even though everyone knew they would be paid, IN FULL, shortly into the future, I am NOT HAPPY WITH YOU.

You didn’t step up to help the U.S.A, against the FAKE DEMOCRAT ATTACK that was only meant to hurt our Country.

You will have a negative mark, at least in my mind, against your record.

If you want to leave service in the near future, please do not hesitate to do so, with NO payment or severance of any kind!

You will be quickly replaced by true Patriots, who will do a better job on the Brand New State of the Art Equipment, the best in the World, that we are in the process of ordering."

The last "Administration" wasted Billions of Dollars trying to fix antiquated "junk," Trump continued, adding that:

"They had no idea what they were doing! Again, to our great American Patriots, GOD BLESS YOU - I won’t be able to send your money fast enough! To all others, REPORT TO WORK IMMEDIATELY.

GOD BLESS AMERICA! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

*  *  *

Less than 24 hours after we pointed out that FAA authorities should "ground private jets" to ease gridlock caused by the air traffic controller shortage in the longest-ever government shutdown. The FAA has done precisely that. 

On Monday morning, CNBC reports that the FAA announced that all business aviation activity at a dozen major U.S. airports will be prohibited amid mounting staffing shortages, forcing flight reductions, and threatening to push several key airports toward complete shutdown. 

What we said. 

Someone at the FAA listened. 

Here are the new private jet restrictions now in effect at 12 major U.S. airports:

  • Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD)

  • Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW)

  • Denver International Airport (DEN)

  • General Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport (BOS)

  • George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH)

  • Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL)

  • John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK)

  • Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)

  • Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

  • Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX)

  • Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA)

  • Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA)

Before some Democrats came to their senses on Sunday afternoon, allowing the GOP to secure 60 votes to advance a bill that would reopen the government, perhaps by the end of the week (Polymarket odds to reopen Nov. 12-15 stand at 85%), we cited an X comment made by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who absoutely nailed, pointing out that once FAA-mandated flight reductions start forcing airport closures, there would be movement on Capitol Hill to reopen the governmnet

Hours later, on Sunday afternoon into the evening, this happened:

What likely drove at least eight Democrats to cross the aisle and side with Republicans to begin the process of reopening the government were Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's repeated warnings that daily flight cuts would rise from 4% to 6% by Tuesday, then 10% by mid-month, and could even reach 20%, effectively paralyzing the nation's entire commercial aviation network just ahead of one of the busiest travel periods of the year: Thanksgiving.

Seasonal Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint data shows that the number of travelers screened at airport security checkpoints will begin to surge in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

Back to Sullivan's point, "Once airports close this thing ends. We don't all fly private like many in Congress." 

As for the centimillionaires and billionaires who prefer to fly private, no sympathy needed. Their pilots can always divert to regional or even untowered airfields.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:55

Senate Eyes Possible Monday Passage For Shutdown Bill; Johnson Thinks House 'Has The Votes'

Zero Hedge -

Senate Eyes Possible Monday Passage For Shutdown Bill; Johnson Thinks House 'Has The Votes'

It looks like the Senate may pass legislation to reopen the government after the longest shutdown in US history as soon as today, after passing a key procedural hurdle Sunday night with bipartisan support from enough Democrats. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune. R-S.D.

According to Politico, Monday passage is possible "depending on whether leaders can secure unanimous consent to speed ahead." 

Getting to the finish line will require amending the House-passed continuing resolution to include three full-year appropriations bills for a number of programs plus a new CR for the rest of the government through Jan. 30.

Conversations are ongoing about accelerating the timing. Key players to watch are progressive senators who blasted the deal as well as Sen. Rand Paul, who is upset over the impact the agriculture appropriations piece of the bill would have on hemp.

That said, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters following Sunday night's vote that it "remains to be seen" how fast the Senate can obtain a final vote on the deal - which will depend in part on whether senators agree to yield back time on Monday. Rand Paul wants a vote to remove the language concerning hemp, and a "guarantee" that it will be successful. 

Details of the bill:

  • The core would be a continuing resolution to reopen the government until Jan. 30, 2026 
  • It will reverse the Trump administration's firings of furloughed workers and ensure they receive back pay.
  • A three-bill spending package known as a 'minibus' that would fund military construction, the VA, the legislative branch, agriculture, and the FDA
  • Food stamps (SNAP) will be funded through fiscal year 2026.
  • The package does not extend expiring pandemic-era Obamacare subsidies, but Democrats have been promised a vote on it after the government reopens. 
Johnson Grows Hopeful

Over in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson believes he 'has the votes' necessary to pass the stopgap measure, which would then head to President Trump's desk for his signature to finally end the shutdown. 

According to Politico, House Republican leaders plan to give 36 hours' notice to members before voting. 

Of note, senior Senate Republicans have been working behind the scenes with House Republicans - though GOP hardliners are still expected to push back on aspects of the bill, along with (of course) House Democrats. 

That said, Politico is also seeing many centrist Democrats in the house who may consider voting for the plan - including Reps. Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Henry Cuellar. 

Stay tuned for more throughout the day...

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:40

Car Bomb Rips Through Tourist-Packed Area Of Indian Capital, Killing & Wounding Scores

Zero Hedge -

Car Bomb Rips Through Tourist-Packed Area Of Indian Capital, Killing & Wounding Scores

What appears to be an act of terrorism in the heart of India's capital city has left at least eight people dead and over 24 injured. It happened at Delhi's popular Lajpat Rai Market.

"A car explosion in New Delhi's Red Fort area, popular with tourists to the Indian capital city, has killed several people and injured many more, local media reported," according to reports of Monday's blast. "The cause of the explosion is not immediately clear, but it occurred in a parked car outside Gate 1 of the Red Fort metro station."

One eyewitness only identified as a nearby shopkeeper has told local media: "I never heard such a loud explosion ever in my life." The person described, "I fell three times due to the explosion. It felt as if we were all going to die."

Amid a huge police and emergency response, security personnel across India have been put on a high state of alert particularly near religious and tourism sites, per Al Jazeera:

Local authorities said the Uttar Pradesh region has been put on a red alert in the wake of the blast.

Provincial official Amitabh Yash told local media that all senior officials in Uttar Pradesh were instructed to increase security at religious sites, sensitive districts, and border areas. Police in all districts of Uttar Pradesh have been put on alert, and patrols and checks are to be increased.

Footage has been circulating showing the car bomb aftermath and chaos unleashed:

Another eyewitness, Mohsin Ali, described: "It was a strong blast. This area has a heavy crowd regularly. It was very crowded. I couldn’t see how many people were injured amid the stampede that ensued. There were several people who had fallen on the ground."

More images showing large fires rising high above the street immediately after the attack:

Regional media reports that "A slow-moving vehicle stopped at the red light following which the explosion took place at 6.52 pm. Nearly 2-3 people were seated inside the car, says Delhi Police Commisioner Satish Golcha."

It is currently anything but clear who may have been behind it. There's a likelihood of it being an Islamic terror group, given India has over several years suffered from this kind of sectarian violence, and in some instances anti-Hindu attacks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:25

Facing 30 Years In Jail, NY AG Letitia James Seeks Dismissal Of Mortgage Fraud Charges

Zero Hedge -

Facing 30 Years In Jail, NY AG Letitia James Seeks Dismissal Of Mortgage Fraud Charges

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

New York Attorney General Letitia James asked a federal judge in Virginia on Nov. 7 to dismiss a mortgage fraud case against her that she says is a case of selective prosecution.

James, who entered not-guilty pleas to charges of mortgage fraud in Norfolk, Virginia, on Oct. 24, alleges the Trump administration targeted her after she brought a civil action against President Donald Trump for bank fraud in New York. Her trial is scheduled for Jan. 26, 2026.

James is accused of one count of bank fraud and one count of making false statements to a financial institution, after she said on mortgage documents that a house she purchased in Norfolk would be used as a secondary residence.

The U.S. Department of Justice claims that she instead used that home as a rental property for a family of three. Designating the property as a second home instead of a rental property allowed James to save nearly $19,000 in interest and tax credits, the government alleges.

If convicted, she could be sentenced to as many as 30 years in prison and fined $1 million for each count.

James was elected in 2018 after running on a campaign promise to investigate Trump. In September 2022, she filed a lawsuit against Trump, alleging he had overvalued his real estate holdings by billions of dollars.

James stated in the motion that she had brought a lawsuit against Trump, two of his children, and the Trump Organization, which resulted in a court finding in 2024 that they were liable for fraud.

New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ruled against Trump in February 2024, issuing a judgment of more than $460 million, with interest accruing.

The New York Appellate Division’s First Judicial Department, a branch of the New York Supreme Court, tossed the penalty in August in a fractured ruling but left the finding of fraud against Trump undisturbed.

James filed an appeal on Sept. 4 of the ruling throwing out the financial penalty.

In the motion filed on Nov. 7 with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, James said the court should throw out the indictment against her because the federal government “targeted [her] for prosecution because of the President’s genuine animus towards her protected campaign speech and fulfillment of her statutory obligations as New York Attorney General.”

The indictment is “the product of vindictive and selective prosecution, in violation of the Fifth Amendment,” the motion said. “Because this prosecution is flagrantly unconstitutional, this Court should dismiss the indictment with prejudice.”

If a case is dismissed with prejudice, the government is not allowed to refile the case in the same court.

The motion said that the lawsuit against Trump, coupled with James’s “outspoken criticism of the President, triggered six years of targeted attacks.” Trump, along with his allies, “have used every insulting term in their vocabulary to deride AG James and call for criminal penalties in retaliation for the exercise of her rights and fulfillment of her statutory duties to fulfill her obligations as New York state’s attorney general,” it said.

Since his return to the presidency, Trump and “his hand-picked Department of Justice officials exhausted every avenue to secure the payback that the President demanded,” the filing said.

James claimed that despite lengthy efforts, federal officials “could not support a criminal charge” and “that did not sit well with the President,” so Trump removed the interim U.S. attorney and replaced him with Lindsey Halligan, giving her “the singular mission of churning out indictments against his political enemies,” the motion said.

James said she has presented “substantial, clear evidence that she was chosen for prosecution” because she exercised her rights as New York attorney general.

The court should dismiss the indictment with prejudice “to preserve the foundational tenets of due process and equal protection under the law,” the motion said.

James filed a separate motion on Oct. 24 to dismiss the indictment, arguing that Halligan was unlawfully appointed and therefore had no legal authority to file charges.

Halligan “lacked the power to present this case to the grand jury or sign this indictment, and she cannot continue to supervise this prosecution,” the motion said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Department of Justice for comment. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:05

Venture Global Shares Surge 15% After Signing LNG Pact With Naturgy

Zero Hedge -

Venture Global Shares Surge 15% After Signing LNG Pact With Naturgy

Venture Global Inc. has signed a 20-year deal to supply 1 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually to Spain’s Naturgy Energy Group starting in 2030, according to the company, which reported on Monday morning. Shares spiked over 15% on the news before the cash open on Monday.

The agreement is Spain’s first long-term U.S. LNG contract since 2018 and, importantly, will positively benefit the United States' balance of trade with Spain.

Mike Sabel, CEO of Venture Global commented: “Venture Global is honored to expand our long-term partnership with Spain through this new agreement with Naturgy, a leading global LNG company.”

He continued: “This contract will positively impact the U.S. balance of trade with Spain and enhance energy security across the region. Our unmatched speed and execution have made Venture Global a trusted, reliable supplier to the global market. The signing of this agreement, along with the strong commercial momentum we’ve achieved over the past six months, reflects the continued customer confidence in our company and the robust demand for LNG globally. Venture Global remains committed to meeting that demand with flexible, fast, affordable, and dependable long-term supply.”

On Monday morning the company also reported Q3 revenue of $3.33 billion, more than triple a year earlier.

Venture Global said it has delivered 35 cargoes to Spain this year from its Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities in Louisiana. Including the Naturgy deal, along with contracts with Greece’s Atlantic-SEE LNG, Petronas, SEFE Energy, and Eni, total long-term commitments now stand at 5.25 million metric tons per year in H2 2025.

Plaquemines

The company exported a record 100 cargoes in Q3 totaling 372 trillion BTU, up 237% year over year, and said 34 of 36 liquefaction trains at its Plaquemines project are producing LNG, while its CP2 project received final export authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy. Venture Global lowered its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $6.35 billion–$6.5 billion from $6.4 billion–$6.8 billion, citing natural gas price changes.

The agreement supports U.S. plans to double LNG export capacity as producers lock in contracts ahead of a potential supply glut driven by rising output from the U.S. and Qatar.

Based in Arlington, Virginia, Venture Global operates two Louisiana export plants—Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines—and is building a third, CP2. Last week, it also agreed to supply 500,000 tons a year to Greece’s Atlantic SEE LNG Trade SA.

For Naturgy, the deal helps offset future losses from an EU ban on Russian LNG starting in 2027, which will end its existing 20-year contract with Russia’s Yamal LNG.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 09:45

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