Futures, Dollar Rise, Gold Soars After Trump's Latest Tariff Salvo

US equity futures are higher, led by Tech as investors largely ignored tariff headlines, in this case the 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum which were announced yesterday, and which will predominantly impact both Canada and Mexico. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.5% higher, reversing half of Friday's drop as the tariff news lifted American metals stocks, with US Steel Corp. surging as much as 15% in premarket. Alcoa Corp. rallied 5%. Nasdaq futures are up 0.6%, with Mag7 names all higher ex-TSLA with Semis and Financials catching a bid. Bond yields are mostly unchanged with USD higher. Commodities are seeing strength across the entire complex with gold’s record run continuing, now above $2900. Today’s macro data focus is on the NY Fed’s 1-year inflation expectation given the hotter print on Friday from Univ of Mich; CPI is on Weds.

In premarket trading, McDonald’s rose 2% as sales rose in the fourth quarter after growth in the chain’s international business made up for a decline in the US. Meta once again led gains for the Mag7 group. Meanwhile, shares in Tesla are set to extend losses for a fourth session(GOOGL +0.6%, AMZN +0.4%, AAPL +0.5%, MSFT +0.6%, META +0.6%, NVDA -0.05% and TSLA -1.6%). Aluminum and steel company shares rose as President Donald Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imports of the metals into the country (Alcoa (AA) climbs 5% and Century Aluminum (CENX) jumps 10%). Steel firms moving higher include: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) +8%, US Steel (X) +5%, Steel Dynamics (STLD) +6%.
Aspen Technology (AZPN) falls 2% as Emerson said the $265 per share price offer for the company is Emerson’s best and final price. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) rises 13% after announcing it has entered into a settlement agreement with Teva Pharmaceuticals resolving patent litigation.
• Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) falls 2% as Toronto-Dominion Bank plans to exit its equity investment in the company.
• Hain Celestial (HAIN) declines 6% after reporting 2Q adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate.
• On Semi (ON) tumbles 8% after reporting quarterly revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA) rises 2% after Hyatt Hotels agreed to buy the company for about $2.6 billion
• Pliant Therapeutics (PLRX) slumps 62% after the company voluntarily paused enrollment and dosing of a trial of bexotegrast in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
• Semtech (SMTC) plunges 27% after the chipmaker said sales of the company’s CopperEdge products are expected to be lower than management’s “floor case” estimate due to rack architecture changes.

Trump’s intention to announce a 25% levy on steel and aluminum Monday added to already tense sentiment before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual congressional testimony and the US President’s possible unveiling of reciprocal tariffs on “everyone” this week. Trump said the metals tariffs would apply to imports from all countries, though he didn’t specify when they would take effect.

“Our view in tariffs remain that they will cause volatility, are a negotiating tool and will eventually be not as bad as feared,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies International.

The dollar strengthened and gold hit a record high as Trump’s latest plan for steel and aluminum import tariffs brought fresh disruption to markets. The yen and the Canadian dollar were the main losers against the greenback as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to its highest in nearly a week. Like the dollar, bullion climbed as the president’s latest trade threats helped boost demand for haven assets. 

Separately, Trump said Elon Musk’s government efficiency team has found irregularities while examining data at the US Treasury Department. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries were steady.

There are a number of key events on the radar in coming days, including Powell’s speech and US CPI data.
Powell will deliver his semi-annual testimony at a time when officials are signaling they’re not in a hurry to further ease policy. Nonfarm payrolls moderated last month and revisions show US job gains were softer but still solid in 2024. Inflation data due this week may help buttress those arguments and underpin market pricing for just one Fed rate cut this year.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% with real estate, energy and telecommunication stocks among the best performers. Basic resources provide a drag due to the aforementioned metal tariffs. BP Plc shares surged the most since 2020 as Bloomberg News reported that activist investor Elliott Investment Management had built a stake in the oil company. Here are the most notable European mover:

• BP shares rise as much as 7% after Bloomberg reported that activist investor Elliott has built a significant stake and is pushing the company to consider transformative measures.
• Spectris shares advance as much as 4.7% after JPMorgan upgrades the high-tech instrument maker to overweight, with a Street-high price target.
• ITV shares rise as much as 3%. Major shareholders in the broadcaster’s management support efforts to explore a deal for its production arm, the FT reported Sunday, corroborating earling reports.
• Drax shares gain as much as 5.9% after the renewable energy company agreed to a four-year low carbon dispatchable contract with the UK government for Drax Power Station.
• Talgo shares gain as much as 8.5%, after Poland’s PFR said it intends to submit a proposal that would entail a takeover bid for 100% of the Spanish trainmaker.
• Telkom shares climb as much as 8.1% in Johannesburg after the telecommunications company said its 3Q Ebitda rose 28% on continued operational efficiency gains from cost optimization initiatives.
• Cloetta shares rise as much as 5% to hit their highest level since September 2021 after the confectionery company decided not to proceed with a planned greenfield investment in the Netherlands due to “increased risk relating to energy supply and the still on-going permitting process.”
• IAG shares drop as much as 3.5% after Goldman Sachs cut the stock to neutral from buy after the British Airways owner’s shares outperformed peers since its upgrade last January.
• Rockwool shares fall as much as 5% as UBS cuts its rating to sell as the stone-wool producer faces a normalization of margins.
• GTT shares fall as much as 7.3% after the French engineering firm announced job cuts at its Elogen hydrogen unit, as well as the departure of CEO Jean-Baptiste Choimet.
• Gerresheimer shares slip as much as 1.4%, paring some of Friday’s 9.5% surge, on news that the company is in early-stage talks with private equity investors on a potential takeover.
• Safestore and Shurgard Self Storage both decline after being downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley, who argue the pair are unlikely to lead in any sector recovery.

Earlier in the session,  Asian stocks dropped on concern US President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum will add to a growing trade war. Hong Kong shares rose for a third day amid optimism toward the tech sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5%, with TSMC the biggest drag on the benchmark. Shares in Taiwan and Australia dropped, while Japanese stocks were mixed. A gauge of Chinese tech shares listed in Hong Kong jumped more than 2% as the nation’s growing artificial intelligence capability fueled optimism on the beaten-down sector. Sentiment was also boosted by Trump’s decision to delay suspension of the “de minimis” exception, boosting e-commerce shares.

“This is actually a very good reminder for global investors to look at the innovation capabilities of some of the Chinese players,” Jin Yuejue, a multi-asset solutions investment specialist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We are very much monitoring the National People’s Congress coming up, whether there will be more fiscal impulse that’s going to be announced.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched up 0.2%, while commodity currencies pared earlier declines, after US President Donald Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. “Markets are becoming incrementally less sensitive to these headlines,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen. “It’s not clear whether this is a negotiating tool to get a deal.” The Japanese yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback and taking USD/JPY above 152. EUR/USD steadied around 1.0326; Options markets suggest traders are positioning for a fresh round of euro weakness fueled by widening tariff-risk premiums.The Canadian dollar also underperformed with a 0.3% decline. 

In rates, treasuries are mixed in early US trading Monday, holding most of Friday’s yield increases sparked by the January jobs data. 10Y yields are at 4.40%, unchanged from Friday; most yields remain within 2bp of closing levels from Friday with the curve steeper; 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are wider for first day in five. Treasury auctions begin Tuesday with 3-year notes and include 10- and 30-year new issues over subsequent two days. With no major US economic data slated before the CPI report Wednesday, Treasury and corporate bond supply may be the main driver of flows, along with reaction by other markets to President Trump’s latest tariff threats. Gilts rise and outperform their German counterparts with UK 10-year yields falling a basis point to 4.46%.

In commodities, WTI crude oil rose 1.5% to trade at $72, near session highs. Gold prices soared $41 to a record high above $2,900. Bitcoin rose 3% to near $98,000. Elsewhere in commodities markets Monday, European natural gas prices rose to a two-year high as colder temperatures accelerate the depletion of the region’s storage facilities. Benchmark futures rose as much as 4.1% to the highest since February 2023. Aluminum futures in London — the global benchmark — were steady as traders waited for more details on when and how the latest tariffs would operate. Copper was little changed.

The US economic data calendar includes only NY Fed 1-Year inflation expectations at 11am New York time. Fed speaker slate is blank; Chair Powell is slated to give congressional testimony over the next two days

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 6,071.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 544.21
• MXAP down 0.3% to 185.10
• MXAPJ little changed at 582.75
• Nikkei little changed at 38,801.17
• Topix down 0.2% to 2,733.01
• Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 21,521.98
• Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,322.17
• Sensex down 0.7% to 77,340.86
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,482.78
• Kospi little changed at 2,521.27
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.37%
• Euro little changed at $1.0333
• Brent Futures up 1.0% to $75.42/bbl
• Gold spot up 1.4% to $2,900.86
• US Dollar Index up 0.10% to 108.15

Top Overnight News

• Trump on Sunday said the US would impose 25% tariffs starting Mon on steel and aluminum imports, with his reciprocal tariff announcement arriving Tues or Wednesday. WSJ
• US House Republican leaders are looking to cut federal spending by USD 2tln to USD 2.5tln, according to Punchbowl sources. House GOP negotiators now believe they will have to dig deeper into Medicaid spending to meet those targets. Punchbowl believe Washington is drastically underestimating the chance for a government shutdown after March 14.
• Trump announced he is revoking security clearances for former President Biden and stopping his daily intelligence briefings, while he stated that there was no need for Biden to have continued access: RTRS
• Trump said he instructed the Secretary of the US Treasury to stop producing new pennies which is wasteful, while he suggested tearing the waste out of the US budget, even if it's a penny at a time: RTRS
• Trump’s acting head of the consumer finance watchdog told staff to stop pending investigations and supervisory activities of banks: WaPo
• US House Speaker Johnson said he will push the ‘one big bill’ strategy for passing US President Trump’s tax cut agenda and Republicans will find offsets to pay for Trump’s tax cut plans: Fox
• Chinese officials are building a list of U.S. technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust probes and other tools, hoping to influence the tech executives who are heavily represented in President Trump’s orbit. WSJ
• China’s consumer inflation accelerated for the first time since August, rising 0.5% in January from a year earlier, driven by holiday spending. Factory deflation persisted with a 2.3% decline. BBG
• China’s retaliatory tariffs went into effect on Mon 2/10, although a White House official said the US could pause its recent 10% duty imposition if progress occurs on fentanyl when Trump and Xi speak this week. WSJ
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing additional tariff cuts ahead of a meeting this week with U.S. President Donald Trump that could boost American exports to India and avoid a potential trade war. RTRS
• UK companies are paring back job postings at the steepest pace since the midst of the pandemic in 2020, and increasingly turning to redundancies. BBG
• France will announce a total of €109 billion in AI investments over the next few years, Emmanuel Macron told France 2 TV before today’s summit in Paris. BBG
• Democrats warn they are willing to have a government shutdown unless Trump and Musk dial back their aggressive overhaul of the federal government. NYT
• Canada will reach out to US states with which it has significant trade relationships to persuade America to drop its tariff plans. BBG

Tariffs

• US President Trump said they will be announcing on Monday 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US and he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday which will go into effect almost immediately, while he added that no one can have a majority stake in US Steel (X).
• US President Trump said on Friday that he will make an announcement in the week ahead on reciprocal trade with many countries, while he added that tariffs are an option to address deficit and auto tariffs are always on the table. Furthermore, Trump said they will meet on reciprocal tariffs on Monday or Tuesday and have an announcement.
• Chinese officials may target Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS) with probes and are building a list of US tech firms for potential probes, according to WSJ.
• Japanese PM Ishiba expressed optimism on Sunday that Japan could avoid higher US tariffs as noted that President Trump had "recognised" Japan's huge investment in the US and the American jobs that it creates.
• Australian PM Albanese said Australia will urge the US to give Australia exemption over steel tariffs.
• Indian PM Modi is prepared to discuss reducing import tariffs and buying more energy and defence equipment from the US when he meets with US President Trump next week, according to Indian officials cited by Bloomberg.
• German Chancellor Scholz said the EU could act in an hour when asked in a pre-election debate if the EU was prepared for possible US tariffs.

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A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks saw mixed price action as participants reflected on last Friday's NFP print and President Trump's latest tariff remarks in which he stated they will be announcing on Monday 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US and will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, while China's retaliatory tariffs against the US took effect. ASX 200 declined with the index led lower by underperformance in tech and telecoms, while miners also suffered owing to the US tariff threat although Australia will urge the US to give Australia exemption over steel tariffs. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open but the clawed back its losses as a weaker currency provided a cushion and with some optimism from Japanese PM Ishiba that Japan could avoid higher US tariffs following his recent meeting with US President Trump. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive following the recent CPI data from China which showed an acceleration and with the outperformance in Hong Kong led by notable strength in tech and telecom stocks. Nonetheless, the gains in the mainland were limited by the tariff and trade frictions after China's retaliatory tariffs against the US took effect and with officials also said to be building a list of US tech firms for potential probes.

Top Asian News

• China appoints Zou Lan as deputy PBoC Governor.
• Shein reportedly asked China suppliers to add production lines in Vietnam, according to Bloomberg.
• India's Finance Minister Sitharaman said a new income tax bill will be introduced in parliament in the week ahead.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are modestly firmer across board, after a mixed APAC session overnight. European sectors hold a positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow; Energy takes the top spot, lifted by gains in BP (+6%) after Elliott Management took an activist stake in the company. For the autos sector, it was reported on Friday that the EU is offering to lower tariffs on US car imports to avoid a trade war with the US. Mining names in Europe are generally on the backfoot today, with losses driven by commentary via US President Trump who said that he will be announcing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US.

Top European News

• German Economy Ministry spokesperson said they are doing everything they can to avoid tariff increases
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said the security risk for commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb strait remains high, will continue to sail via The Cape of Good Hope until safe passage through the area is ensured.
• European Commission said have not receive any official notification regarding imposition of additional tariffs on EU goods.
• French Foreign Minister, said "of course we will respond to Trump's tariff announcement" and will call on the EU to respond to Trump tariffs.
• ECB de Guindos said it is very important to avoid a trade war, have to have prudent and intelligent approach regarding latest tariff announcement. Analysis regarding tariffs is that it leads to impact on supply, inflation is less clear. Have to take into account all factors on monetary policy. Decision on policy will be taken meeting-by-meeting, see inflation converging to the "our" goal
• UK Health Minister Andrew Gwynne was fired by PM Starmer over his WhatsApp messages which insulted constituents, fellow MPs and councillors.
• French President Macron said France will announce during the Paris AI summit opening on Monday EUR 109bln investments in AI over the coming years.
• Germany's election front-runner Merz said he was open to reforming Germany's borrowing rules amid pressure regarding defence spending financing, according to the FT.

FX

• DXY has started the week off on the front foot in the wake of Friday's NFP report and weekend trade developments. On the latter, US President Trump said he will announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US on Monday and unveil reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday which will go into effect almost immediately. Today's docket sees the release of US employment trends and NY SCE. DXY briefly eclipsed Friday's 108.31 high with a session peak at 108.44.
• EUR is steady vs. the USD with the week commencing on a negative footing when it comes to trade; EU remains in Trump's sights, but the FT reported late last week that the EU is set to offer lower tariffs on US cars. EUR/USD briefly made its way onto a 1.02 handle with a session low at 1.0281 before returning back above the 1.03 mark - ECB's Schnabel and President Lagarde are due.
• GBP is a little firmer today vs the USD and EUR, but with UK specific newsflow fairly light thus far; all focus will be on BoE's Mann - she has traditionally been an arch-hawk, so her remarks will be of great importance for any insight on her decision to opt for a 50bps cut vs expectations of a 25bps reduction. Cable currently sits in a 1.2370-1.2414 range.
• JPY is the laggard vs the Dollar. On the weekend, PM Ishiba expressed optimism on Sunday that Japan could avoid higher US tariffs. As it stands USD/JPY trades towards the upper end of a 151.25-152.53 range; further upside could see a test of its 200 DMA at 152.76 and then its 100 DMA at 152.97 thereafter.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with slight outperformance in the Aussie, which is outmuscling the Kiwi in the AUD/NZD cross; the Antipodes were initially hampered by the Trump tariff announcements, but the downside has seen waned as the Dollar gave back the initial upside. Australian PM Albanese said Australia will urge the US to give Australia exemption over steel tariffs.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1707 vs exp. 7.3050 (prev. 7.1699).

Fixed Income

• USTs are essentially flat and with price action rangebound thus far, trading within a very narrow 109-02+ to 109-09 range; markets are digesting the jobs report on Friday as well as fresh tariff announcements from President Trump regarding 25% levies on all steel and aluminium coming into the US (more details on Monday). Today's docket sees the release of US employment trends and NY SCE.
• Bunds marginally higher in what has been a recent run of consolidation for German paper. Macro focus for the broader EZ-region has been on the implications of Trump tariff threats over the weekend (detailed above). If the EU is finally dragged into the trade war in a material way, the market will likely focus on the negative growth implications for the region. Mar'25 Bunds are currently tucked within Friday's 132.95-133.69 range with the corresponding 10-year yield towards the middle of the 2.35-2.40% range. ECB President Lagarde is due to speak later today.
• UK paper a touch higher after an indecisive session on Friday. Global trade is the main macro focus today for global markets, however, it remains to be seen how much of a negative this will be for the UK given that rhetoric towards the UK from the Trump administration has been tempered on account of Trump's relationship with PM Starmer and the lack of goods trade imbalances between the two nations. Mar'25 Gilts are currently tucked within Friday's 92.94-93.87 range; BoE's Mann (who surprisingly voted for a 50bps cut last week) is due to speak later.

Commodities

• A firmer session for the crude complex thus far, with upside facilitated by US President Trump's tariff announcement on steel/aluminium, and as markets await reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday/Wednesday. In geopolitics, Trump commented that he spoke with Russian President Putin regarding ending the Ukraine war although offered very few details including when the call took place. WTI sits towards the upper end of a USD 70.84-71.86/bbl range.
• Firmer trade across contracts with European Nat Gas rising to a two-year peak to levels last seen in February 2023 - with desks citing colder temperature and tight storage.
• Precious metals are firmer with gold and silver both advancing to a similar degree, whilst Palladium is higher but to a lesser degree. Focus has been on the yellow-metal, which once again printed a fresh ATH, this time above USD 2900/oz; current peak at USD 2,906.25/oz.
• Copper futures are subdued after rangebound APAC trade, with tariff concerns and implications continuing to weigh on sentiment in the complex. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,379.35-9,477.95/t range at the time of writing.
• Iraq set Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at a premium of USD 2.65/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average and to Europe at a discount of USD 1.25/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at a discount of USD 0.65/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
• Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have completed decoupling from the Russian power grid as planned and successfully synchronised their electricity systems to the European continental power grid.
• Indian LNG buyers are said to be in talks for more US supply ahead of Indian PM Modi's trip to the US, according to Bloomberg.
• India's Oil Secretary said Indian oil companies open to buy stake in US LNG projects.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "Negotiations for the second phase of the Gaza agreement have not started and Netanyahu has broken their date due to his visit to the United States", according to Sky News Arabia citing Hamas leader. "Hamas leader Musa Abu Marzouq told Sky News Arabia: We expect that the negotiations will proceed and take their normal course".
• Iranian Defense Minister said "It is not possible to reach an agreement with the current US government on the nuclear agreement", via Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu dispatched a delegation to Qatar’s Doha for the next phase of ceasefire talks.
• Israeli military said operations in the northern West Bank expanded to Nur Shams, while it added that several terrorists were killed and wanted suspects were detained. It was separately reported that Israel’s army confirmed it received three hostages and said it struck a Hamas weapons depot in Syria.
• US President Trump said he is committed to buying and owning Gaza and may give sections to other states in the Middle East to rebuild it, while he added that they will make Gaza into a good site for future development. Trump also said that he will be meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince MBS and Egyptian President Sisi, as well as noted that Middle Eastern nations will take Palestinians after those nations speak to him.
• Hamas official condemned US President Trump's remarks on Gaza ownership and said that Palestinians will foil all displacement plans, according to Reuters.
• Turkish President Erdogan said that they have no need to discuss or take seriously US President Trump’s Gaza plan, while he added that no one has the power to remove the people of Gaza.
• Qatar condemned statements by Israeli PM Netanyahu on establishing a Palestinian state inside Saudi territory.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei met with visiting top Hamas leaders in Tehran.
• Egypt’s Foreign Minister heads to Washington for talks with US officials, according to AFP.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said on Friday that he has spoken to Russian President Putin by phone regarding ending the Ukraine war, according to the New York Post.
• US President Trump said he does not want to talk about his conversation with Russian President Putin but believes they are making progress and expects to have more conversations with Putin. Furthermore, Trump declined to say when they talked and noted that he would meet with Putin in person at the right time, according to Reuters.
• Russia’s Kremlin said it can neither confirm nor deny publications regarding the Putin-Trump conversation, while Russia’s envoy to the UN said Russia awaits appropriate signals from the US regarding contacts with Moscow and that Russia has not yet seen positive steps from the new US administration on disarmament, according to RIA.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia has not received any satisfactory proposals to start talks on Ukraine and statements by the West and Ukraine about an immediate start on talks are nothing but buzz building, according to RIA.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Orikhovo-Vasylivka in eastern Ukraine, while it was also reported that Russia said its troops repelled three Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kursk region.
• Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine's capital Kyiv, according to the Mayor.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korean leader Kim said the trilateral cooperation among the US, Japan and South Korea is raising a grave security challenge. It was also reported that North Korea noted its nuclear weapons are not a bargaining chip and that its nuclear forces are meant for combat against enemies that threaten global peace, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 11:00: Jan. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectat, prior 3.00%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The week after payrolls is usually quiet but due to the first Friday of the month being the latest it could possibly be this month, then we bump straight into US CPI (Wednesday) week, with PPI (Thursday) for an added bit of inflationary sparkle. Outside of this the main highlight will be Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee (tomorrow) and the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday). The latter comes after CPI which will possibly spread the interest level over the two appearances rather than most of the focus being on the first as per usual. Elsewhere in the US, watch out for the NY Fed inflation expectations series today after a stronger equivalent from the University of Michighan survey just before the weekend on Friday. After that we wait until this Friday for the other important US data, namely retail sales and industrial production.

In Europe we have the UK Q4 GDP reading on Thursday following last week's BoE meeting (our UK economist's recap is here). Elsewhere in the region, January CPIs are due in Denmark and Norway today, and Switzerland on Thursday. In terms of earnings we have 75 S&P 500 companies and 79 Stoxx 600 companies reporting.

The tariff news will clearly continue to dominate the agenda all week, especially after Mr Trump announced on Friday that he'd be holding a press conference early this week on the US plans for equalising tariffs on "reciprocal trade" with an added mention for autos. Then on Air Force One last night Mr Trump said he would put 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports later today. Canada, Mexico and Latin America would be the most impacted given that's where the US imports most of these goods from.

Looking forward now and in terms of Powell's testimonies this week, the overarching message is likely that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates at the moment, with Friday's payrolls and to a lesser extent the UoM inflation expectations series the latest support to that message. Even though headline (+143k) and private (+111k) payroll gains were below expectations, net upward revisions of 100k over the prior two months, a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% (4.1% expected), and average hourly earnings +0.5% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), made it a hawkish report.On top of that, the annual benchmark revision to the level of March 2024 nonfarm payrolls (-598k final vs. -818k preliminary) was not as large as the BLS had previously projected. See our economists' US employment chart book here for everything you wanted to know about the labour market post this release.

For those inflation expectations last Friday the 1yr level was up to 4.3% (expected 3.3%) and the more important 5-10yr one at 3.3% (expected 3.2%). If confirmed in the final reading the longer-term expectations have only been higher for one month (June 2008) since 1995. This series continues to be ridiculously partisan post the election though with the 1-yr number seen around 5% from Democrat supporters and around zero for Republicans. So how reliable this number is at the moment is open is debatable.

Talking of inflation, strong seasonally adjusted gains in food and energy prices should keep headline CPI (+0.31% forecast vs. +0.39% previously) above core (+0.28% vs. +0.23%). YoY headline CPI should remain roughly steady at 2.9%, while that for core would just round down to 3.1%. OER will continue to be a big focus. For PPI it‘s as ever the components that go into core PCE that will gain all the attention.

Continuing with inflation, on Sunday data from China showed that consumer inflation (+0.5% y/y) accelerated at its fastest in five months in January (v/s +0.4% expected), up from December's +0.1% increase, mainly because of the brisk consumption seen in the recently concluded Spring Festival holidays. At the same time, producer price deflation persisted as the PPI (-2.3% y/y) fell for a 28th consecutive month. The decline was marginally faster than Bloomberg’s estimate of -2.2% while matching December’s contraction.

Chinese risk is doing well this morning with the Hang Seng (+1.80%) leading the way with the Shanghai Composite (+0.50%) also higher. Other markets are a bit more subdued with the Nikkei (+0.20%) and the KOSPI (+0.13%) swinging between gains and losses. S&P 500 (+0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.60%) futures are rebounded after a weak Friday session. The yen (-0.31%) is retreating from a two-month high, trading at 151.88 against the dollar, with 10yr JGB yields +1.8bps higher at 1.32%, the highest since 2011.

Last week saw markets experience a steady overall performance, but one that was bookended by tariff-related news. At the start of the week, the imposition and then delay to tariffs on Mexico and Canada saw the S&P 500 first fall sharply but then close less than 0.6% beneath its all-time high by Wednesday. The index then fell -0.95% on Friday (and -0.24% over the week) as news broke of US reciprocal tariff plans on Friday. Tech stocks were a particular underperformer, with the Mag-7 down -2.79% (-1.95% Friday) as Alphabet’s and Amazon’s results underwhelmed. However in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +0.60% (-0.38% Friday), having hit an all-time high on Thursday. And there was also a strong performance for emerging markets, with the MSCI EM index up +1.38% (+0.57% Friday).

The hawkish data on Friday led investors to dial back their expectations for rate cuts this year, with just 36bps now priced in by the December meeting, which is the fewest in over three weeks and a turnaround from the 50bps priced intra-day on Wednesday. This helped trigger a significant selloff for Treasuries at the end of the week, which saw the 10yr yield up +6.1bps on Friday to 4.50%, even though the 10yr yield was still down -4.5bps over the week as a whole. In Europe, 10yr bund yields fell -8.8bps last week to 2.37%, including a -0.7bps decline on Friday as tariff risks outweighed the read-across from stronger US data.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 08:24

Why A Chinese Gold Mania May Be Starting

By Jesse Colombo of The Bubble Bubble Report

The current gold bull market began in the spring of 2024, fueled in large part by aggressive Chinese futures traders on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), while Western investors remained largely on the sidelines. In just six weeks between March and April, these traders propelled gold prices up by $400, or 23%—an extraordinary surge for the yellow metal. Since then, their activity has quieted, but I’ve anticipated their return, expecting them to push gold to truly staggering levels. That moment may have arrived. Fresh off the week-long Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, these traders are reentering the market—just as gold was already heating up without them.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures were the primary vehicle behind the spring 2024 gold frenzy, a surge that subsequently spilled over into international gold prices:

A fascinating Financial Times article from that time titled "Chinese Speculators Super-Charge Gold Rally" highlighted how trading volume in SHFE gold futures had surged by 400%, propelling gold prices to record highs:

The spring Chinese gold trading frenzy can also be seen in the chart of long open interest in SHFE gold futures:

Over the past year, SHFE gold futures have mirrored the international gold price, steadily rising before consolidating in a trading range from late October to January. But as soon as China’s financial markets reopened this week after the Lunar New Year holiday, SHFE gold futures gapped higher, swiftly catching up to the international rally that unfolded while China was offline. This breakout signals strong bullish momentum, suggesting even greater gains lie ahead.

The trading range and recent breakout are also evident in the international spot gold price denominated in Chinese yuan, providing further confirmation of the bullish trend:

As I had anticipated back in December, the spot price of gold in U.S. dollars also recently broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, confirming the bullish momentum:

I believe all the key ingredients for another China-driven gold mania—similar to last spring—are now in place. It may only be a matter of time. A key indicator to watch is trading volume in SHFE gold futures, which you can track on TradingView under the symbol AU1!. Last spring, a surge in volume accompanied gold’s explosive rally. So far, volume has remained subdued, but it's likely to increase as the rally gains momentum. For confirmation, I’m looking for a significant spike in volume to validate this thesis.

Another key indicator of a potential Chinese gold mania is whether the domestic Chinese gold price trades at a premium to the international price. During last spring’s explosive rally, the domestic price carried a premium of approximately $50 over the international price. Currently, there is little to no premium or discount, but it's worth watching closely. If a significant premium emerges, it would likely signal that Chinese demand is once again driving gold higher.

A major catalyst for a potential Chinese gold mania is the country’s severe economic turmoil. With its real estate and stock markets plunging, an estimated $18 trillion in household wealth has been wiped out—an economic crisis akin to China’s version of the 2008 Great Recession. Meanwhile, government bond yields have collapsed to record lows, signaling a deepening deflationary spiral. In low-interest-rate environments like China’s, gold— which generates no yield—becomes more attractive as the opportunity cost of holding it diminishes. Additionally, China is likely to respond with a massive stimulus “bazooka” to combat deflation, which should provide a powerful tailwind for gold, silver, and other commodities.

Another potential catalyst for a Chinese gold mania is the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent resumption of official gold purchases after a six-month pause. As I recently explained, the PBOC was likely accumulating gold all along, but its decision to publicly announce renewed purchases appears to be a strategic move aimed at encouraging domestic gold buying. This aligns with China’s broader strategy of diversifying away from U.S. dollars and increasing gold holdings across all levels of society.

All signs point to the potential for another explosive gold rally driven by Chinese traders, much like what unfolded last spring. With SHFE gold futures breaking out, the possibility of rising trading volumes, and the return of a Chinese gold price premium, the conditions for another bullish episode are falling into place. China’s economic crisis, record-low bond yields, and the looming prospect of massive stimulus only strengthen the case for gold’s continued ascent. Meanwhile, the PBOC’s renewed gold purchases reinforce the broader shift toward gold as a preferred asset. If these factors align as expected, the next phase of this bull market could be even more dramatic than what we saw in 2024.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 08:05

Trump Ends Lawsuit Against Twitter Over Post-Jan. 6 Suspension

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump has ended his lawsuit against Twitter over the platform’s decision to ban him following the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol.

Pro-Trump supporters storm the U.S. Capitol following a rally with President Donald Trump in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

In a notice filed Friday with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, legal teams for both sides requested that the court dismiss Trump’s pending appeal. The notice did not say whether Elon Musk, who acquired Twitter and rebranded it as X, had agreed to any terms to resolve the case.

In July 2021, Trump filed separate cases against Twitter, Facebook, and Google’s YouTube over similar measures they took to restrict his use of those sites. Twitter said at the time that Trump’s messages—including one in which he stated he would not be attending incoming President Joe Biden’s inauguration—were “highly likely” to inspire more violence.

Trump’s lawsuits centered on free speech violations. While private companies ordinarily have no legal obligation to honor free-speech rights, the suits alleged that Twitter and other platforms were essentially acting as agents of Democratic members of Congress who wanted him deplatformed.

“Legislators ... made it increasingly clear that they wanted President Trump, and the views he espoused, to be banned from Defendants’ platform,” the complaint alleged, citing multiple statements from Democratic lawmakers urging Big Tech to take action against Trump.

The suits were initially filed in Florida but were later moved to federal court in California at the companies’ request. In May 2022, a San Francisco judge dismissed the case against Twitter and its former CEO Jack Dorsey, ruling that Twitter was not acting as a government agent when it suspended Trump. Trump appealed the decision to the Ninth Circuit.

All three platforms eventually dropped the bans. Musk, a self-described free speech absolutist who is now a core adviser to Trump, restored Trump’s account in November 2022, just days after Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race.

Attorneys for Twitter have argued that Trump’s case was moot since his account had been reinstated under Musk’s revised content moderation policies. However, the case lingered on, since at least two pro-Trump advocates who joined the lawsuit didn’t have their accounts restored.

Since winning reelection, Trump has secured favorable settlements with tech and media companies he accused of defaming or mistreating him.

In December 2024, ABC News agreed to pay $15 million toward Trump’s future presidential library to settle a defamation lawsuit over anchor George Stephanopoulos’s on-air claim that Trump had been found “liable for rape.” The settlement labeled ABC’s payment as a “charitable contribution” earmarked for the yet-to-be-built library.

In January, Meta agreed to pay $25 million to resolve Trump’s suit over his suspension from Facebook and Instagram. Approximately $22 million of that amount will go toward Trump’s presidential library, with the remainder covering legal fees and other plaintiffs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 07:45

Incoming Polar Blast Sends EU NatGas To Two-Year High As Stockpiles Dwindle

European natural gas prices surged to a two-year high as new weather models forecast an incoming cold snap across Northwest Europe this week, expected to linger through early next week. Another driver in the rally has been the bloc's dwindling NatGas inventories, which remain well below critical seasonal averages, heightening supply concerns ahead of spring. 

The price of the Dutch TTF, the benchmark European NatGas, climbed as much as 5.4% on Monday to 58.75 euros a megawatt-hour - the highest level since February 2023. 

According to Bloomberg data, weather models forecast that average temperatures across Northwest Europe will begin sliding this week and reach a low of 29F by early next Tuesday. The average temperature for the region this time of year is around 40F.

The cold blast will increase NatGas demand and further drain stockpiles on the continent, which are already below 15-year averages. As of Saturday, EU NatGas storage facilities were about 49% full.

"The risk of the European Union entering the spring with very low gas inventories has increased in the last couple of weeks," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, who Bloomberg quoted. 

Lohmann noted, "Not only has the front month spiked, but we have also seen a rise in 2026–2027 calendar prices."

Traders also watch the risks of a broadening tariff trade war between President Trump and Brussels. On Sunday, Trump said he would soon introduce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the US.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot responded to Trump's tariff threat, indicating the bloc should not hesitate to defend its interests. 

"Of course... This is already what Donald Trump did in 2018, and we responded. We will again respond," Barrot said. 

In recent months, Trump has told Brussels to purchase more US LNG... 

"Trump could act as the LNG marketer-in-chief," Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said in a recent webinar. However, it remains to be seen how successful he will be in selling more LNG to Europe amid tariff wars. 

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, Europe has been rejiggering its LNG supplies from Moscow to the US.

The EU may purchase more US LNG to satisfy Trump to resolve any trade disputes. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 07:20

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• The Super Bowl Has Never Seen Anything Like These Five Gigantic Humans: The Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive line is historically large—and they’re out to flatten the Kansas City Chiefs, (Wall Street Journal)

• Younger Investors Like Options and Crypto. They Might Be Sorry. Members of Gen Z are starting their investing journey at younger ages than older generations did. https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-options-risk-young-investors-be89eb5f see also 6 Steps to Raising Money-Savvy Children: From preschool through adulthood, there are many opportunities to help children develop healthy financial habits. (Barron’s)

• The World Risks a ‘Financial Heart Attack.’ Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio Has the Medicine. The hedge fund founder says it is game time for heavily indebted countries to avert a debt crisis in the U.S. and elsewhere. (Barron’s)

• The Mood of the American Consumer is Souring:  Tariff threats, market turbulence causing jitters early in Trump’s second term. (Wall Street Journal) see also Automakers say Trump tariffs on Canada and Mexico will cause U.S. car prices to rise: The average $25,000 price of a car imported from Mexico or Canada could jump $6,250 if the tariffs take effect, according to an analysis by S&P Global Mobility. The automotive research firm forecasts that importers would likely pass most of any increase in their costs along to consumers. (CBS News)

• In praise of subspecies: To lump or to split? Deciding whether an animal is a species or subspecies profoundly influences our conservation priorities.(Aeon)

• Dear Mr. Vice President, Please Take Off Your Apple Watch: An Open Letter To JD Vance From A Former CIA Officer On The Counterintelligence Risks Of Smartwatches. (Watches of Espionage)

• ‘Unfathomable’: How this stunning Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade came together: Fans in Dallas took to the streets to protest the move, creating a makeshift memorial outside the team’s arena, at the foot of the statue for Mavericks legend Dirk Nowitzki, who had posted a sad-faced emoji in response to the trade of a player many expected to be immortalized next to him with a statue one day. Stars across the NBA were stunned — including the players involved in the trade who’d been given no heads-up that discussions at this level were even taking place.(ESPN)  see also A Baffling Trade Rocks the NBA—and the Lakers Win Again: Dallas makes a stunning decision to jettison Luka Doncic—kicking off a Showtime reboot with LeBron James. (Wall Street Journal)

• ‘Dear, did you say pastry?’: meet the ‘AI granny’ driving scammers up the wall: Daisy’s dithering frustrates phone fraudsters and wastes time they could be using to scam real people.(The Guardian)

• Why are the Democrats so spineless? No wonder the American public thinks of Democrats as out of touch, opportunistic and cowardly. That is because they are. (The Guardian)

• The Best Steven Soderbergh Movies, Definitively Ranked: From star-studded Hollywood heist films to modern noir to sci-fi to wild metacinematic experiments, we’ve ranked the prolific output of a brilliant director who’ll try anything once. (GQ)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Sahil Bloom, entrepreneur and content creator. His twice weekly newsletter, The Curiosity Chronicles, reaches a million people. He is Managing Partner of SRB Ventures, a venture investment firm focusing on early stage start ups. His first book, “The 5 Types of Wealth: A Transformative Guide to Design Your Dream Life“ was published this week.

 

The Top Import Partner of Every U.S. State

Source: Visual Capitalist

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

"No Way To Avoid Pain Of Worldwide Recession" - Ed Dowd Warns Of "Perfect Storm For Trump Admin"

Authored by Greg Hunter via USAWatchdog,

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com is back with a new report called “Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025.” 

The new report shows how a weak economy was propped up under the Biden Administration and how a crash, this year, is inevitable.  

Dowd says,

“What we are going to have going forward is the reversal of deficit government spending, which was juicing the economy with illegals.  

Some of them got jobs, but a lot of them got benefits.  They got housing accommodations.  The NGO system was flush with money to facilitate this massive, purposeful logistical operation.  People don’t understand that the net legal migration in the US is one million a year. That’s one million people a year.  The last four years, we brought in 10 million to 15 million people.  That is a new economic variable, and it distorted the economy. 

It never got us into expansion territory, but it papered over a lot of the ills we were seeing.  

Trump’s policies are going to reverse that all out. . . . The velocity of money under Joe Biden really started to rise. . . .  Illegal immigration is very inflationary...

In the fourth quarter, the velocity of money is already rolling over.  The Trump effect began the moment he was elected.  We’ve seen self-deportations.  We have seen new tenant rents plunge, and that’s what has been holding up the housing market.”

How bad is the economy going to get?  

Dowd predicts, 

“We are seeing a recession in 2025.  The rest of the globe is already starting to roll over.  It’s going to be a worldwide recession.  There is going to be a mini housing crisis.  Housing has been stagnant for the better part of the year.  There is no transaction volume, and nobody can afford homes.  We are hitting the 18-year housing cycle.  The last housing cycle was in 2007, and you add 18 years and you get 2025...

The economy for the middle-class is going down. . . . As time goes on, we are going to see GDP numbers go lower and lower and lower. . . . It’s kind of a perfect storm for the Trump Administration.  There is no way to avoid the pain.”

When can we expect things to get better?  

Dowd says, 

“This is much like Ronald Reagan in his first term.  He was elected with -2% real wages.  This was the same phenomenon going into the 2024 Election.  So, we are going to have a recession . . . Then, Trump gets his policies, and he has a very short window of opportunity to get all of his policies enacted.  If he does, we will be booming on the other side of this.”

Dowd still likes gold and thinks rates will begin going lower, which means locking in rates now will be a smart play for many.  

Dowd says, “Gold is good long term.”  

Dowd also thinks AI is over-bought and is in a bubble and points out, “There is no money on the other side,” of the AI boom.  

Dowd thinks AI tech will crash just like the internet bubble in early 2000.  

Dowd thinks, “AI prices are too expensive, and they will collapse at some point.”

There is much more in the 51-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, as he talks about his new report called “Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025” for 2.8.25.

*  *  *

If you want a copy of Dowd’s new report called “Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025,” click here. There is lots of free information on Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com. You can order Dowd’s updated book called “Cause Unknown” by clicking here. Dowd’s work on compiling data on deaths, disabilities and injuries caused by the CV19 bioweapon/vax is all free at his website called HumanityProjects.info.  You can see the data by clicking here, and you can donate to the HumanityProjects.info by clicking here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 06:30

Musk Calls For Impeachment Of Obama-Appointed Judge Who Blocked DOGE Access At Treasury

Elon Musk has called for the impeachment of an Obama-appointed judge who barred DOGE and the Treasury Secretary from accessing payment systems at the US Treasury.

On Friday night, Democrats went 'judge shopping' to ask that Musk's team be stopped from accessing Treasury systems, knowing that instead of receiving a judge by random selection, the only available judge would be Paul Engelmayer - who held an ex-parte hearing without DOJ lawyers. Engelmayer did not cite any case law or precedent for his ruling, which many have criticized for vast overreach.

The order prohibits special government employees, along with those from outside the Treasury department, and the Treasury secretary himself, from accessing the systems.

On Saturday, Musk posted to X: "A corrupt judge protecting corruption," adding "He needs to be impeached NOW."

A corrupt judge protecting corruption.

He needs to be impeached NOW! https://t.co/zgnwZuOz2Y

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 9, 2025

In an earlier post, Musk wrote "it's time," in response to the suggestion that activist judges should be impeached.

It’s time https://t.co/DA69TdZEoN

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 9, 2025

Engelmayer's ruling came in response to a lawsuit by 19 Democratic state attorneys general who panicked over DOGE investigating waste, fraud and abuse within the US government.

LMAO. You guys went judge shopping for a lunatic left-wing judge who issued an ex parte ruling. And you did it all to prevent Democrat corruption from being revealed.

— Jeff Carlson (@themarketswork) February 9, 2025

I read the ruling in the case against DOGE and the Treasury Department.

It's 4 pages. It's all boilerplate and generic language.

ZERO substantive legal analysis.

See for yourself.

This isn't remotely credible. pic.twitter.com/SXNOKBI3KT

— Cernovich (@Cernovich) February 9, 2025

"The Court’s firm assessment is that, for the reasons stated by the States, they will face irreparable harm in the absence of injunctive relief," wrote Engelmayer in his decision. "That is both because of the risk that the new policy presents of the disclosure of sensitive and confidential information and the heightened risk that the systems in question will be more vulnerable than before to hacking."

________

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Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 06:11

17 Percent Of US Homeowner Mortgages Are At 6 Percent Interest Or Higher: Report

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The share of homeowners with 6 percent or more mortgage rates is at its highest level in nearly a decade, according to real estate brokerage Redfin, which added that the “lock-in effect” in the housing market has started to ease.

A home available for sale is shown in Austin, Texas, on May 22, 2024. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

The company said 17.2 percent of homeowners have a 6 percent or higher rate, which is the largest proportion since 2016.

“That’s up nearly five percentage points from 12.3 percent in the third quarter of 2023,”the company said in a Feb. 6 statement. “If this growth rate were to continue, which is feasible, the share of homeowners with a rate of at least 6 percent would nearly double in the next three years.”

Meanwhile, the share of homeowners with an interest rate less than 6 percent stands at 82.8 percent. As such, an even higher share of owners have a rate below the Jan. 30 weekly average rate of 6.95 percent, said the report.

This is “prompting many to stay put instead of selling and buying another home at a higher rate.” The phenomenon, called the “lock-in effect,” dries up housing supply, thus supporting price growth and contributing to the affordability crisis.

However, the lock-in effect is showing signs of easing as “it’s not realistic to stay put forever” for most individuals,” Redfin stated. Many people are opting to move despite the higher rates because of major life events like a divorce or job change that leave them with no choice, Redfin said, citing its agents.

“Many Americans are growing accustomed to the idea that rates are unlikely to fall to pandemic lows anytime soon,” the Redfin report stated.

Rates hit a record low of 2.65 percent during the COVID-19 pandemic, the brokerage said. The average weekly rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has remained above the 6 percent level for more than two years, according to data from Freddie Mac.

Moreover, the “pandemic surge in home values means many homeowners have enough equity to justify selling and taking on a higher rate—especially if they’re downsizing or moving somewhere more affordable,” said the report.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that the average sales price of houses sold in the United States in Q1, 2020, was $383,000. This has jumped more than 33 percent to $510,300 as of Q4, 2024.

Growing Rental Market

Mortgage applications to buy homes have declined amid high rates. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), while overall mortgage applications rose 2.2 percent for the week ending Jan. 31 compared to a week back, the jump was driven by a 12 percent increase in refinances.

“Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types,” said MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan. “The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year.”

Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said that mortgage rates have remained stable over the last month, with data suggesting the economy to be on a “firm footing.”

Mortgage purchase applications over the last two weeks are “modestly above what we saw a year ago,” he said. This suggests there is “some latent demand in the market.”

With buying a house becoming increasingly costly, the build-to-rent market is growing nationwide, according to a recent report by real estate listing portal Point2Homes. Build-to-rent properties are built specifically for renting out.

There are currently 110,727 new single-family build-to-rent homes under construction in the United States across 613 communities, according to the report.

State-wise, Texas had the highest number of build-to-rent homes under development, with 21,812 homes at various stages of construction. It was followed by Arizona and Florida with nearly 14,000 properties, and North Carolina with more than 12,000 units.

Doug Ressler, manager of business intelligence at Yardi Matrix, a sister company of Point 2Homes, said renting a build-to-rent home is cheaper on average than buying a starter home.

“Recent reports indicate that renting can save one around $1,000 per month compared to buying. This is largely due to high mortgage rates and elevated home prices,” Ressler said.

“More and more build-to-rent (BTR) residents consider themselves renters by preference compared to 2023 (36 percent in 2024 vs. 27 percent in 2023).”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 05:45

Chinese Nationals Arrested For Allegedly Smuggling Counterfeit Goods Through SoCal Ports

Two Chinese nationals living in Los Angeles were recently arrested for allegedly running a scheme to smuggle counterfeit goods from China through Southern California ports, according to the US Attorney's Office of the Central District of California.

Shipping containers to be transferred from the port of Long Beach, Calif., on Oct. 14, 2021. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Zhongliang Wang, 39, and Chenyu Zhao, 31, both of Hacienda Heights, were taken into custody last week over an alleged "cargo-swapping scheme" operating out of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach - by which they are accused of taking cargo ship containers selected for inspection by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), breaking the security seals, removing the contraband, and then stuffing the containers with junk cargo before replacing the broken seals with counterfeit ones.

Wang and Zhao's co-conspirators would then transport the containers to a CBP-authorized location for inspection, according to prosecutors. The co-conspirators were allegedly paid much higher than normal trucking fees - $15,000 for each cargo container diverted from inspection in November and December 2024.

As the Epoch Times notes further, a photo in the complaint showed a fake luxury handbag bearing the brand name Christian Dior, while another photo showed several boxes with the word Prada.

Wang and Zhao allegedly began their scheme in July 2023, according to the complaint.

“Protecting our nation’s borders from illegal smuggling is a top priority,” U.S. Attorney Joseph McNally said in a statement. “These arrests highlight the unrelenting efforts of law enforcement to dismantle criminal networks that seek to exploit our trade system and endanger American businesses and consumers.”

Zhao, a Chinese citizen and lawful permanent U.S. resident, was arrested at the Los Angeles International Airport on Jan. 30, just before he returned to China on a one-way flight, prosecutors said.

According to the complaint, Zhao told law enforcement officials at the airport that he was aware of media coverage that some individuals had been charged with similar smuggling activities via the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

On Jan. 27, the U.S. Attorney’s Office of the Central District of California announced charges against nine individuals, including executives of logistic companies, warehouse owners, and truck drivers, after prosecutors seized $130 million in contraband. Eight were arrested while one was a fugitive at the time of the announcement.

As of Feb. 6, prosecutors said local law enforcement officials had seized more than $1.3 billion of contraband in connection with cargo-swapping schemes, including in Wang and Zhao’s case.

Wang and Zhao have been charged with conspiracy and illegally removing goods from customs custody. They face a maximum sentence of five years in prison for each conspiracy count and up to 10 years of imprisonment for each count of breaking customs security seals.

In fiscal year 2024, CBP seized more than 32 million counterfeit items, which would have been worth more than $5.4 billion if they had been genuine, according to a report.

The report also found that counterfeit goods from China and Hong Kong accounted for about 90 percent of the total quantity seized.

The top five commodities seized in fiscal year 2024 were pharmaceuticals, sunglasses, consumer electronics, perfumes, and personal care items, according to the report.

On Feb. 6, the CBP officials in Louisville, Kentucky, announced that it had seized 28 shipments in January, most of which came from either China or Hong Kong. The shipment contained fake designer watches, bracelets, rings, necklaces, and earrings, all of which would have a combined manufacturer’s suggested retail price of $27.5 million if the items were genuine.

It’s not known if Wang and Zhao have attorneys.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 04:15

Daily Omega-3 Supplements May Slow Down Aging, Study Finds

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Omega-3 fatty acids, found in fish and flax seeds, may slow down the body’s aging process, according to a new study.

Many people take fish oil supplements in place of fish to get the omega-3 fats in their diet. Grace Wu/The Epoch Times

Last week, a team of researchers, including some from Harvard University in the United States and Switzerland’s University of Zurich, analyzed 777 Swiss people over the age of 70 to determine whether omega-3 or other supplements can reduce aging. Their findings were published on Feb. 3 in the journal Nature Aging.

One of the tests conducted by the researchers showed that combining omega-3 supplementation with vitamin D and exercise was found to work better in slowing down aging in older adults, according to the paper.

At the same time, their study found that vitamin D, exercise, and omega-3 had the largest impact on lowering the risk of cancer and premature frailty over a three-year period.

But they noted that in particular, researchers “found that taking omega-3 fatty acids slowed down biological aging across several epigenetic clocks by up to four months—regardless of subjects’ gender, age or body mass index,” according to a statement by the University of Zurich.

To purchase high-potency Omega3 fish oil with 5:1 ratio of DHA to EPA for brain, eye, and heart health, click here.

During the study, which tested eight separate groups for treatments over a three-year period, the participants consumed some 2,000 IUs of vitamin D each day and/or took one gram of omega-3 per day and/or participated in a home exercise program for 30 minutes three times per week, according to the statement.

“Our trial indicates a small protective effect of omega-3 treatment on slowing biological aging over 3 years across several clocks, with an additive protective effect of omega-3, vitamin D, and exercise based on PhenoAge,” the authors said, referring to a measure of biological aging they used.

“This result extends our previous findings from the DO-HEALTH study, in which these three factors combined had the greatest impact on reducing the risk of cancer and preventing premature frailty over a three-year period, to slowing down the biological aging process,” said University of Zurich professor of geriatrics and geriatric medicine Heike Bischoff-Ferrari, who led the research team, according to the statement.

Foods with high amounts of omega-3 acids include fatty fish and other seafood such as salmon, mackerel, tuna, herring, and sardines, as well as seeds and nuts such as chia seeds, walnuts, and flax seeds, officials say. Fish oil supplements are also a source of omega-3 fatty acids.

They differ from omega-6 fatty acids, which are found in soybeans, corn, sunflower and safflower oils, some nuts and seeds, and animal products.

Last year, a study released by the University of Georgia’s College of Public Health and Cornell University found that a higher omega-6 to omega-3 ratio is associated with a higher risk of developing cancer or cardiovascular disease.

“Participants with the highest ratios of omega-6 to omega-3 fatty acids were 26% more likely to die of any cause, 14% more likely to die of cancer, and 31% more likely to die of heart disease than individuals with the lowest ratios,” that study said, although it noted that people with high levels of both omega-6 and omega-3 “were both associated with a lower risk of dying.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 03:30

Kim Jong Un Offers Rare Remarks On State Of Ukraine War, Blames US 'Wild Ambition'

In rare words assessing the state of the Russia-Ukraine war, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has blamed the United States for exacerbating and prolonging the death and destruction with an aim of inflicting strategic defeat on Russia.

He made the remarks on the occasion of the 77th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army, telling the gathering of his generals and top officers that US is blinded "by the wild ambition for establishing unipolar hegemony."

Sputnik/Kremlin pool photo

Starting last year North Korea injected troops into the conflict, based on a defense agreement with Moscow the summer prior, but reports are that the some 10,000 DPRK troops sent have been confined to assisting the defense of Russian territory in Kursk region.

Ukraine has recently said the North Koreans withdrew from the frontlines in Kursk, but now they are back, after taking possibly hundreds of casualties.

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) cites of Kim that "He expressed serious concern over the reckless behavior of the US and Western group intentionally fostering the prolonged war for the unrealizable dream to deal a strategic setback to Russia."

Kim stressed that Pyongyang has fiercely opposed "any act of denying international justice and disturbing global peace and security."

He said that North Korea "will invariably support and encourage the just cause of the Russian army and people to defend their sovereignty, security and territorial integrity in keeping with the spirit of the treaty on the comprehensive strategic partnership between the DPRK and Russia."

Kim added that he expects that 2025 will see the Ukrainian conflict remain one of the two "main axis of the tense international situation" - identifying Gaza and also (now post-Assad) Syria "which have been the scene of global geopolitical conflicts and confrontation last year."

The North Korean leader said Washington's actions "are further increasing the danger of the outbreak of a new world war with a serious impact not only on international peace and security but also all other spheres of human activities."

The debris from North Korean, Iranian, and Russian missiles has revealed a startling fact: They are filled with newly produced Western electronics. https://t.co/A2TL0KvThI pic.twitter.com/ACFiMtrH0N

— Foreign Policy (@ForeignPolicy) February 5, 2025

Ukraine's President Zelensky has recently said that there is a global 'axis' conspiring against his country - which includes Iran and North Korea fighting alongside Russia. The Iranians have chiefly supplied suicide drones, and according to some reports, short and mid-range missiles for use against Ukrainian cities.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 02:45

Refugees Paid More Than Germans? Federal Body Demands Higher Than Statutory Pay For Foreigners

By Thomas Brooke of RMX News

A decision by the Federal Employment Agency to mandate higher wages for two refugees than for their German colleagues has sparked outrage and debate over fairness in Germany’s labor market.

Schwäbische Zeitung reported on Monday how logistics company SV Druck GmbH sought to employ two refugees as shipping assistants at one of its warehouses in Weingarten last month. The company offered the prospective employees the statutory minimum wage of €12.82.

They were expected to start work on Feb. 1 but the process hit a bureaucratic roadblock when the Office for Migration and Integration refused to authorize the employment citing an objection from the Federal Employment Agency.

In Germany, employment contracts for refugees must be signed off by the relevant authorities.

According to a letter issued on Jan.20, the employment was not approved because the proposed wage was deemed too low. The agency ruled that refugees must be paid at least €14.00 per hour, as this was determined to be the “customary wage” for similar roles.

However, the company already employs numerous German citizens in the same role at the legal minimum wage of €12.82. The company’s HR department explained that approving a higher wage for refugees while German employees earned less for carrying out identical tasks would be discriminatory, but its protests were ignored.

SV Druck GmbH ultimately decided to cancel the employment contracts of the two refugees to avoid internal conflicts among staff.

“If the refugees were paid more, our German employees would justifiably demand the same increase,” the company explained.

When questioned about the higher wage requirement, Federal Employment Agency spokesperson Eva Schmid said, “The general statutory minimum wage is only applicable when no customary remuneration can be determined. For the position of ‘shipping assistant,’ the customary wage is set at €14.00 per hour.”

She cited wage statistics that list shipping assistants as earning between €15.98 and €16.52 per hour based on reference professions such as warehouse assistants or print shop helpers.

The regulation calls into question the extent to which federal bodies should be interfering with the free market economy and stipulating levels of remuneration exceeding the statutory limit for private companies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/10/2025 - 02:00

Senate GOP Proposes Constitutional Amendment To Limit Size Of Supreme Court

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Republicans in the U.S. Senate proposed a new constitutional amendment on Feb. 7 that would prevent federal lawmakers from increasing the number of justices—currently set at nine—on the U.S. Supreme Court.

The new joint congressional resolution, the Keep Nine Amendment, was introduced after Democrats in the previous Congress proposed a series of measures to boost the number of justices and enforce ethics standards at the nation’s highest court. Republicans at the time criticized the legislation.

Congressional Democrats have been demanding ethics reforms in recent years as reports of justices not publicly disclosing gifts have surfaced. They have also grown increasingly incensed by Supreme Court rulings they disagree with on issues such as abortion, gun rights, affirmative action, environmental policy, and the power of the administrative state. Republicans have countered that efforts to regulate the court are unconstitutional and motivated by partisan animus.

The current limit of nine justices was established by the federal Judiciary Act of 1869. The number has not changed since then. Supreme Court justices are nominated by the sitting president and confirmation requires a simple majority vote by the Senate.

Amending the U.S. Constitution is difficult. Article V of the Constitution provides that an amendment can move forward only if it is approved by a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress or by two-thirds of states participating in a special constitutional convention. It must then be ratified by the Legislatures of three-fourths of the states to become part of the Constitution.

The resolution states that the amendment would become effective if it is ratified “within seven years after the date of its submission for ratification.”

The Democrats’ “court-packing scheme would erase the legitimacy of the Supreme Court and destroy historic precedent,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in a statement.

“The Court is a co-equal branch of government, and our Keep Nine Amendment will ensure that it remains independent from political pressure.”

Co-sponsor Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), said the amendment is needed to check Democrats’ “efforts to undermine the integrity of the Court.”

He said lawmakers on the other side of the aisle want “to use the Court to advance policy goals they can’t accomplish electorally.”

Among other co-sponsors of the amendment are Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.), and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.).

Several bills have been introduced in Congress in recent years to expand the court beyond nine justices.

In September 2024, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) unveiled legislation to add six justices to the Supreme Court, raising the total number of members to 15.

“The Supreme Court is in crisis and bold solutions are necessary to restore the public trust,” Wyden said.

In May 2023, Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) introduced legislation to raise the cap on justices to 13.

“Our most fundamentally held freedoms are under attack from an illegitimate, far-right United States Supreme Court,” Markey said. “And if we fail to act, it will only get worse.”

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the Democrat minority on the Senate Judiciary Committee. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 22:45

Even Never Trumpers Are Warming Up To The Donald

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

I’d like to talk a day about an irony. Maybe it’s something that’s a paradox. Have you noticed that there’s certain people who are coming out of the woodwork who are diehard Trump opponents and suddenly they say, sorta, “I like Donald Trump,” or they don’t say it publicly or they don’t write it emphatically?

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump pause while speaking to supporters at Joint Base Andrews before boarding Air Force One, in Joint Base Andrews, Md., on Jan. 20, 2021. Pete Marovich/Pool/Getty Images

And here’s what I mean. He went to Davos and I thought, “Wow, they’re going to destroy Don.” I don’t mean destroy him effectively, but they’re going to try to destroy him. And then the questions and answers were amazing. He outlined tax reform, transparency, low interest rates, targeted tariffs, more energy development, more fossil fuels, closed borders. I thought, “Wow, that is going to drive the Davos people crazy.”

And then the questions were, “Are you sure you can send us a liquid, not natural gas? We need it in Europe,” or there were, “This sounds great, but when will it start?” And you start to think, these are capitalists and they want Europe to be turned to its former grandeur. And all of a sudden, this man is saying something that is exactly opposite of the socialism that destroyed their countries and which they bought into. And now they don’t have to do it. And they’re secretly, but more openly even admiring Donald Trump.

Same phenomenon happened when I was on campus, not long on the Stanford campus, a professor whom I know came up to me, and I would say that he is a moderately anti-Trumper, never Trumper maybe, and he whispered, said, “Wow, the end of DEI is actually not that bad, is it?” And what he was saying is, “There’s no more racial quotas and maybe I wanted to be a dean.” I’m saying, I’m extrapolating what he was saying. “Maybe I want to be a dean or maybe I want to get published at University Press and there’s not going to be any racial quotas anymore or discrimination and I’m for that because the DEI is a monstrosity. There won’t be any czar that calls me up and says your syllabus doesn’t have enough DEI material in it, or I’ve looked at your grading pattern and you’re inordinately giving Cs to people of color. No more commissars.”

So even they are, you know, happy that Donald Trump is doing this. And then we get into the FAA [Federal Aviation Administration] and people are really angry at Donald Trump because in this tragedy of the airline accident, Donald Trump actually said things that were quite blunt. He said that DEI was maybe at fault, and we now know that the, and I don’t want to get into a critique yet of the crash, but it seems like the helicopter was too low, and there was culpability, which seems like one of the air traffic controllers was not there. It seems like somebody left early. It seems like there was a mistake on giving directions about the proper elevations.

But we do know this, and Donald Trump brought it up, and that was that the FAA consistently under Joe Biden had racial quotas and they abolish programs and universities that encourage people who had either expertise through the curriculum or prior military experience who would do well on meritocratic exams to try to join the FAA and they were rejected because of their race. That is a fact and in fact, there has been several lawsuits challenging the FAA and the first nomination to the FAA, of course, the candidate that Biden picked didn’t even know the fundamentals of aviation. He came from the Denver airport, but he didn’t have any knowledge of the actual mechanics of how airports worked, it seemed.

My point is that when he did that, everybody in the media thought it was awful. But then people who probably didn’t even vote for him said, “Wait a minute. I want to be safe. I want my daughter to be safe. I want my husband to be safe. You mean there’s people in these control towers that were selected for criteria other than merit?”

And while it might have been illiberal or maybe inconvenient, Donald Trump told the truth. What I’m getting at is this. This country has moved so far to the left on energy, on DEI, on transgenderism, on crime, on the border, that people even who supported it, whether they’re the people in LA that lost their homes, or the people who voted for Adam Schiff—and we saw what he did at the nomination—they want a return.

And this man is the only person, Donald Trump, with the guts and the backbone to not just make a transition, not to the far Right, back to the center or the center traditional Right that secretly, at least for now, they are happy that it’s going on because they feel that they and most Americans will be the beneficiaries, And you know what’s correct? They’re absolutely right.

Reprinted by permission from The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 22:10

First CBS News Poll Of Trump Stuns Democrats

President Donald Trump's lawsuit against CBS News over its "news distortion" of a 60 Minutes interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris may have compelled the left-leaning media organization, owned by Paramount Global, to report actual news. 

A new CBS News/YouGov survey of 2,175 US adults interviewed last week found President Trump to be "tough," "energetic," "focused," and "effective" in his first few weeks in office.

With most describing him as "tough," "energetic," "focused" and "effective" — and as doing what he'd promised during his campaign — President Trump has started his term with net positive marks from Americans overall, in our first CBS News polling since he returned to office.… pic.twitter.com/ZYKPscvS0G

— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 9, 2025

Many respondents said the president is going over and beyond in helping this nation, with very few saying he is doing less. 

His voters note that he has the right balance of focusing on restoring national security by reversing the disastrous open border policies of the Biden-Harris administration and ending diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in the federal government and military. 

Most respondents approved of the president's border and deportation policies, while cash-strapped respondents said the administration needs to focus more on tackling the inflation storm sparked by out-of-control spending by Democrats.

Here are the questions asked in the CBS News/YouGov survey:

Describe Donald Trump As...?

Trump And Campaign Promises: Is He Doing...?

Trump's Overall Job Rating

Trump Admin's Program To Deport Immigrants Illegally In US

Sending US Troops To The US-Mexico Border

Large Detention Centers While Determining Who Should Be Deported

Trump's Handling Of Israel-Hamas Conflict

US Trying To Take Over Gaza Would Be...

Trump's Focus On Lowering Prices Is...

New US Tariffs On Goods From...

Elon Musk & DOGE: Influence Over Gov't Operations And Sending Should Be

What’s entertaining is that all of these polls heavily lean to the left—yet, no matter how much the MSM tries to manipulate polling data to generate negative sentiment around Trump, the president's level of support must be extraordinarily high. And this is what actually keeps the Democratic Party up at night... Poll rigging is not working. Too big to rig. 

All the polls are left leaning. So imagine how much higher it actually is.

— Any Excuse (@anyexcuse4me) February 9, 2025

MSM's ability to control narratives and push radical leftist state propaganda through its censorship blob is coming to an end in the Trump era. More and more Americans are realizing that their hard-earned money has been used to fund leftist media outlets and journalists who have spent the past decade calling Trump a "Nazi."

Now let's look at MSNBC's polling of Trump...

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 21:35

Trump Says He Has Spoken Directly To Putin About Ending War In Ukraine

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said this weekend that he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the Russia–Ukraine war, drawing a response from the Kremlin.

Speaking to the New York Post in an exclusive interview on Air Force Once, Trump said that he did speak with the Russian leader about the war, which started in 2022. Asked about how many times he’s spoken to Putin in recent days, Trump said, “I'd rather not say.”

However, Trump said he believes Putin “does care” about the carnage on the battlefield and “wants to see people stop dying.”

“All those dead people. Young, young, beautiful people. They’re like your kids, two million of them—and for no reason,“ Trump said, referring to soldiers dying in the war, adding that the conflict ”never would have happened” if he was president in 2022.

Elaborating, but without providing many details, Trump said that he has a plan to end the war and added that he has a good relationship with Putin.

“I hope it’s fast,“ he said. 

”Every day people are dying. This war is so bad in Ukraine. I want to end this damn thing.”

Longtime Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the TASS state news agency that “many different communications are emerging” between Moscow and Washington, according to a Russian-to-English translation.

“These communications are conducted through different channels,” Peskov said when asked by TASS to comment directly on Trump’s interview with the Post.

“I personally may not know something, be unaware of something. Therefore, in this case, I can neither confirm nor deny it.”

In February 2022, Putin sent thousands of troops, tanks, and other military hardware to Ukraine as part of a “special military operation” for what he said was an attempt to end a possible threat to Russian sovereignty by Ukrainian forces backed by NATO. He also has said that Russia wants to protect Russian speakers living in Ukraine.

But Ukraine and its Western backers, led by the Biden administration, have said the invasion was an imperial-style land grab and vowed to defeat Russian forces. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion.

Before taking office in January, Trump has said that he wants to quickly end the war, at several points saying he would end it within 24 hours of taking office.

On Feb. 7, Trump said he would probably meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy next week to discuss ending the war. Zelenskyy told Reuters on the same day that he wanted Ukraine to supply the United States with rare earths and other minerals in return for continued financial support its war effort.

“If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal, we are only for it,” Zelenskyy said. “Let’s develop this together, make money, and most importantly, it’s about the security of the Western world.”

But Zelenskyy cautioned that Trump must meet with him before he meets with Putin on ending the war. The reason, he said, is because meeting with Putin first would “look like a dialogue about Ukraine without Ukraine.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 21:00

"Worst Go First": Baltimore ICE Agents Arrest "MS-13 Terrorists" In Suburban Neighborhoods

Maryland's radical sanctuary state policies under Governor Wes Moore and the Democratic Party in Annapolis have unleashed public safety threats for law-abiding taxpayers in several counties.

Real America's Voice reporter Ben Bergquam joined ICE agents from the Baltimore branch on a ride-along as they targeted "MS-13 terrorists in suburban neighborhoods." 

"Embedded with Baltimore ICE Field Office Director, Matthew Elliston and his team along with the Baltimore FBI office, Special Agent in Charge, Bill DelBagno, and the ATF," Bergquam wrote on X. 

"Listen to what Matt says about sanctuary jurisdictions, and the crazy news we get after we picked up one of the MS-13 criminal illegals! These guys are all being aided and coached by leftist, activist groups and putting every one of your neighborhoods in danger." 

EXCLUSIVE: Baltimore ICE Operations target MS-13 terrorists in suburban neighborhoods.

Embedded with Baltimore ICE Field Office Director, Matthew Elliston and his team along with the Baltimore FBI office, Special Agent in Charge, Bill DelBagno, and the ATF.

Must see and… pic.twitter.com/OZ9dCZennf

— Ben Bergquam - Real America’s Voice (RAV-TV) News (@BenBergquam) February 8, 2025

Gov. Moore and the far-left lawmakers in Annapolis have prioritized time and taxpayer monies on comforting illegal aliens in the state rather than properly addressing the public safety threat of "MS-13 terrorists" roaming city streets and urban neighborhoods. Marylanders are disgusted with local Democrats in the state as sanctuary policies have backfired.

In addition to the public safety disaster, Gov. Moore is leading the state into a fiscal crisis. The state's credit outlook is "negative" amid repeated calls by Democrats to raise taxes, which will only increase the exodus of the tax base, thus placing the state on a dangerous death spiral—similar to Illinois—in the next decade.

Let's not also forget Democrats in the state have mismanaged the power grid with disastrous green policies that have sparked a power crisis. Taxpayers are now furious this winter that their power bills spiked uncountably.  

The little hope that Marylanders have in ending this failed progressive nightmare comes from Trump's deportation initiative, carried out by ICE and other federal agencies, to restore national security.

Meanwhile, a Republican sheriff of Frederick County told Newsweek last month that Gov. Moore and leftist politicians are making it their "obligation" to protect illegal alien communities. 

Marylanders did not vote for radical leftist politicians to flood the state with "MS-13 terrorists" and illegal aliens. Democrats are still not reading the room in the era of Trump, doubling down on illegal aliens and wokeism. 

If Maryland gets a credit downgrade under Moore's tenure - then good luck trying to make a bid for president in 2028.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 20:25

Trump, Musk, & The Deep State: The Battle Over Transparency Begins

Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

Here we go again. At the beginning of his first term as president, Donald Trump issued an executive order temporarily banning travel from several countries - Yemen, for example, Sudan, Libya, and four others - that had been identified as major exporters of terrorism.  The left went nuts, excoriating Trump for his “racist” “Muslim travel ban.”

It wasn’t a “Muslim travel ban,” but try telling that to Seattle District Court judge James Robart. 

He sniffed the air, sensed the pleasing hysteria and press coverage, and issued a cursory restraining order against Trump’s executive order. The humorous part of Robart’s order came towards the end.  As I wrote at the time, Robart insisted that the “declaratory and injunctive relief” outlined in his order be applied immediately and on a “nationwide basis” (my emphasis).

Seattle has spoken, Comrades! Judge Robarts finds (where? how?) that his court has jurisdiction over … well, over just about everything: the president and the head of the Department of Homeland Security, for starters, but also “the United States of America (collectively).”

So all across the fruited plain, “Federal Defendants and all their respective officers, agents, servants, employees, attorneys, and persons acting in concert or participation with them are hereby ENJOINED and RESTRAINED” from enforcing the President’s executive order.

This may be the best place to pause and point out that Donald Trump, acting as the president of the United States, was perfectly within his rights to issue an executive order to suspend travel from particular countries.

And so it is now with Trump’s deputies in the Department of Government Efficiency.  

Tasked with the Herculean labor of unscrambling the byzantine Rube Goldberg device that is the 21st-century administrative state for furthering corruption, illegal payments, and partisan influence at home and abroad, DOGE commander Elon Musk and his laptop-and-algorithm-toting lieutenants have been patiently uncovering the pyramid of waste, fraud, and abuse that is the foundation of the United States government in its twenty-first-century incarnation.

In a remarkable piece called “Override: Inside The Revolution Rewiring American Power,” a blogger known as EKO showed how it worked. Four young coders arrive at the Treasury Department in the wee hours of January 21.  Within hours they have succeeded in tracing long-hidden payment directions.

No committees. No approvals. No red tape. Just four coders with unprecedented access and algorithms ready to run.

“The beautiful thing about payment systems,” noted a transition official watching their screens, “is that they don’t lie. You can spin policy all day long, but money leaves a trail.”

That trail led to staggering discoveries. Programs marked as independent revealed coordinated funding streams. Grants labeled as humanitarian aid showed curious detours through complex networks. Black budgets once shrouded in secrecy began to unravel under algorithmic scrutiny.

The difference between Trump’s first term and his second (acknowledged) term can be explained in two words: velocity and preparedness.  In 2017, Trump’s initiatives were hampered, blindsided, litigated, and smothered in red tape.  This time the Leviathan’s usual expedients are impotent. “Their traditional defenses—slow-walking decisions, leaking damaging stories, stonewalling requests—proved useless against an opponent moving faster than their systems could react. By the time they drafted their first memo objecting to this breach, three more systems had already been mapped.” And here’s the point:

“Pull this thread,” a senior official warned, watching patterns emerge across DOGE’s screens, “and the whole sweater unravels.”

He wasn’t wrong. But he misunderstood something crucial: That was exactly the point.

The left gets it. And their heads are exploding.  So far, their biggest gun was the creaky cannon Judge Robart wheeled out: the emergency injunction with immediate “nationwide effect.”

The New York Times, a house organ for anti-Trump hysteria, has a long hand-wringing column about the latest wheeze. Paul A. Engelmayer, a U.S. District Judge appointed by Barrack Obama, just issued an “emergency order” to restrict Elon Musk’s and DOGE’s access to the Treasury Department’s payment and data system.  He also insisted that anyone who had access to those systems after January 20 “destroy any and all copies of material downloaded from the Treasury Department’s records and systems.” Fun part: even Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, is prohibited from looking into the corrupt structures of his own department.

Engelmayer’s order came in response to a lawsuit filed on Friday by Letitia James, Attorney General of New York and professional scourge of all things Trump, along with 18 other Democratic state attorneys general. What was the charge?  The stated predicate was that by authorizing the investigation, Trump had failed in his Constitutional duty to “faithfully execute the laws enacted by Congress.” The real predicate was that Musk’s beavers were uncovering the inner mechanism of the deep state and the resulting truths were unbearable.

“Humankind,” said T. S. Eliot, in “Burnt Norton,” “cannot bear very much reality.” Similarly, Bureaucrats cannot bear very much transparency.  Like vampires, the sunlight is fatal to them.

How will Trump respond?  We do not know yet.  I hope it will be at least partly as Andrew Jackson is said to have responded in his contretemps with Chief Justice John Marshall.  In 1834, the Supreme Court determined that the Cherokee Indians owned Northern Georgia. Nevertheless, Andrew Jackson evicted the Indians, reputedly observing that Marshall “has made his decision; now let him enforce it.”

Lincoln responded in a similar fashion to Chief Justice Roger Taney in 1861. In April of that year, Lincoln suspended the writ of habeas corpus between Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia. This allowed military commanders to imprison suspected saboteurs without indictment. Taney said (in “Ex Parte Merryman”) that Lincoln did not have the authority to do this. Lincoln basically ignored him, invoking the novel doctrine of “nonacquiesence.”

As usual, Lincoln demonstrated his deep understanding of the issues involved. “Are all the laws but one to go unexecuted,” he asked Taney, “and the Government itself go to pieces lest that one be violated? Even in such a case, would not the official oath be broken if the Government should be overthrown when it was believed that disregarding the single law would tend to preserve it?”

In my view, Trump’s actions to expose the partisan corruption of the administrative state are in response to an existential threat is as grave, if less bloody, than the Civil War. The permanent bureaucracy that rules us has for decades been erecting and fortifying a nearly impenetrable edifice from which to preserve its privileges and power, stifle criticism, and export its globalist agenda.  Donald Trump was elected to deconstruct that edifice. Elon Musk is one of his most potent aides in accomplishing that task.  Of course, the left is hysterical.  Their gravy train is being derailed before their eyes. The people who elected Trump are delighted.

I suspect that the squeals and tantrums of the ruling party and its minions will amount to no more than theater. I further suspect that Trump will resort not only to “nonacquiesence” but also to non-payment.  In 2022, New York received $383 billion in federal spending. There are many ways in which Trump could stanch the flow of federal dollars to obstreperous states. I think he should consider them all. I am also happy to see some official pushback.  Rep. Darrell Issa, for example, just announced that he is “immediately introducing legislation next week to stop these rogue judges and allow Trump and DOGE to tell you where government is spending your money.” Good for him.

One final suggestion. If left-wing regime-party judges can issue emergency restraining orders with “immediate nationwide effect,” why couldn’t a politically mature district judge in, say, Alabama do the same, overturning the order issued by his left-wing colleague on an “immediate, nationwide basis?”  I offer the idea free and for nothing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 19:50

Trump Says He'll Impose 25% Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum On Monday

President Donald Trump said Sunday that he will announce on Monday new 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, the Epoch Times reported.

BREAKING: President Donald Trump said he will announce 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum on Monday. https://t.co/shkCxFiYBI pic.twitter.com/81AdNnwMnf

— Bloomberg (@business) February 9, 2025

“Any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25 percent tariff,” he told reporters Sunday on Air Force One as he flew from Florida to New Orleans to attend the Super Bowl. When asked about aluminum, he told reporters, “aluminum, too” will be subject to the trade penalties.

Trump on Sunday offered no details about the aluminum or steel tariffs. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that the new tariffs would come on top of the existing duties on steel and aluminum.

Trump also told reporters that he would soon announce “reciprocal tariffs” on Tuesday or Wednesday, meaning that the United States could impose duties on products from countries that have placed tariffs on U.S. goods.

“If they are charging us 130 percent and we’re charging them nothing, it’s not going to stay that way,” he told reporters.

Steel and aluminum were among Trump’s earliest tariffs during his first term, implementing a 25% duty on steel and a 10% duty on aluminum  in 2018 on grounds of national security.The steel tariffs also come amid a stalled deal by Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. to buy US Steel Corp. for $14.1 billion. The transaction was blocked by former President Joe Biden and is also opposed by Trump.

Last week, Trump elaborated on the reciprocal tariffs during comments at the White House alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

“Where a country ... charges us so much, and we do the same,” he said. “I think that’s the only fair way to do it. That way, nobody’s hurt.”

Trump also said that Nippon Steel is now considering investing in US Steel instead of purchasing the company outright. Trump told reporters on Sunday that Nippon Steel cannot have a majority stake in the US firm.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the European Union levies as much as 50 percent tariffs on motorcycles and 10 percent on automobiles, while India places 60 percent duties on U.S. cars and hefty tariffs on agricultural products.

During the campaign, Trump often said that he would place tariffs on a variety of goods and countries, sometimes even suggesting that the United States could abolish the income tax in favor of tariffs.

Earlier this month, he warned that he would place a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, if those countries do not curb illegal immigration or fentanyl production and trafficking into the country. Ultimately, he pushed back the Canada and Mexico tariffs by a month after leaders of the two countries agreed to strengthen their border security.

“The orders make clear that the flow of contraband drugs like fentanyl to the United States, through illicit distribution networks, has created a national emergency, including a public health crisis,” Trump said in a statement before he agreed to not immediately issue those duties against Canada and Mexico. “Chinese officials have failed to take the actions necessary to stem the flow of precursor chemicals to known criminal cartels and shut down money laundering by transnational criminal organizations.”

Both Mexico and Canada said they would send thousands of troops to their respective borders with the United States to stanch the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl trafficking. The 10 percent tariff on China took effect on Feb. 4.

Continue reading at The Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 19:21

NIH Slashes Indirect Costs, Says Move Will Save Billions Per Year

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The National Institute of Health (NIH) on Feb. 7 decreased the maximum indirect cost rate research institutions can charge the government to 15 percent. Indirect costs include utilities, facility, and personnel, and service contracts.

NIH predicts the change will save more than $4 billion a year.

In 2024, $9 billion of the $35 billion granted for research “was used for administrative overhead, what is known as ‘indirect costs,’” the agency said in a post on social media platform X on Friday.

“The average indirect cost rate reported by NIH has averaged between 27 percent and 28 percent over time. And many organizations are much higher—charging indirect rates of over 50 percent and in some cases over 60 percent,” the NIH said in its announcement.

The White House said in a statement Saturday that the new NIH policy is in line with what research institutions receive from private foundations.

The agency said “many of the nation’s largest funders of research—such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—have a maximum indirect rate of 15 percent.”

Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) announced that the Department of Health and Human Services canceled 62 contracts worth a total of $182 million.

One of the terminated contracts was a $168,000 contract for an Anthony Fauci exhibit at the NIH Museum.

“These contracts were entirely for administrative expenses – none touched any healthcare programs,” stated DOGE, the new cost-cutting agency headed by Elon Musk, in a social media post on Friday.

The NIH has not returned a request for comment.

The changes have raised concerns by some in academia.

Jeffrey Flier, a Harvard University professor, wrote on X that cutting NIH grant indirect funding would cause chaos and harm biomedical research in hospitals, schools, and institutes around the country.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) called the move illegal.

“Trump’s proposal is ILLEGAL & amounts to an indiscriminate funding cut for research centers of all sizes, NOT just Ivies. It will mean shuttering labs across the country, layoffs in red & blue states, & derailing lifesaving research on everything from cancer to opioid addiction,” she said in a statement on X.

Some lawmakers welcomed the cuts.

“Eliminating excessive ‘indirect costs’ will save the American taxpayer tens of billions of dollars in overhead expenses,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) wrote on X.

Harris, who is also a physician, said the U.S. government pays significantly more than nonprofits. He also disputed claims that the cuts would eliminate research.

“The Trump administration did not cut funding for biomedical research. Funding excessive ‘indirect costs’ is not the same as funding the research itself,” said Harris.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/09/2025 - 18:40