Individual Economists

"A Societal Loss Of Humanity": Older Men Are Falling In Love With A Deluge Of AI Generated Female Influencers

Zero Hedge -

"A Societal Loss Of Humanity": Older Men Are Falling In Love With A Deluge Of AI Generated Female Influencers

Older men are being scammed and fooled left and right by a deluge of AI generated female influencers, according the NY Post.

What appears to be a growing wave of glamorous influencers online isn’t always what it seems. In some cases, these personalities are entirely artificial - carefully engineered digital figures designed to look, act, and interact like real people. One widely followed pro-MAGA persona, for example, was ultimately exposed as “nothing more than an algorithm run by a guy in India,” revealing just how convincingly these accounts can mimic authenticity.

Despite that, audiences continue to engage—often deeply. Many followers, particularly older men, are “falling for them left, right and center.” Experts suggest this isn’t just about deception, but about a deeper emotional gap. Some describe the phenomenon as a “pandemic of loneliness,” even pointing to a broader “societal loss of humanity” as people increasingly form attachments to digital illusions instead of real relationships.

What’s striking is that these accounts don’t always hide the truth. Some openly identify as AI and still attract admiration. Take Ana Zelu, a fictional influencer who clearly labels herself an “ai-influencer,” yet maintains a highly curated feed filled with aspirational imagery—luxury travel, fashionable outfits, and picturesque city scenes. Her posts draw enthusiastic responses, with followers commenting things like “Number one is my favourite…May God bless you,” and “You are genuinely in a class of your own.” The awareness that she isn’t real doesn’t seem to diminish the appeal.

The Post writes that a similar pattern appears with Milla Sofia, another digital creation presented as a pop singer. Her content includes stylized videos and performances, and although her profile identifies her as virtual, fans respond as if she were a real celebrity. Comments such as “my sweet love,” “Listening to the music of this woman I love,” and “I love you” reflect genuine emotional investment.

Psychotherapist Jonathan Alpert explains why this happens: “people don’t actually need something to be real…they just need it to feel responsive.” When an account appears engaging, consistent, and attentive, “the brain starts to treat that interaction as meaningful.” In other words, emotional connection can form even without a real person on the other side.

Forensic psychologist Carole Lieberman ties this behavior to social isolation. Even when users suspect something isn’t real, “it seems better than nothing,” and many “convince ourselves that it is — or could be — a real person.” The illusion becomes a kind of emotional substitute—one that feels easier, safer, and more accessible than real-world interaction.

She said it is a “very sad state of affairs” and “a societal loss of humanity.” 

At the same time, the technology behind these personas is improving rapidly. AI-generated faces, voices, and videos have moved beyond the so-called “uncanny valley,” making them increasingly indistinguishable from reality. As AI expert Hany Farid notes, while some accounts disclose their artificial nature, “the vast majority of content is not.” This creates an environment where users are highly “vulnerable to being deceived,” often without realizing it.

The result is a digital landscape where the boundary between real and fake is fading. These AI influencers may not exist in the physical world, but the emotions they evoke are real—and for many people, that emotional connection is enough.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 13:25

Epic FAFO: Far-Left NYC Mayor Mamdani Attempts To Defuse Info War Against Ken Griffin

Zero Hedge -

Epic FAFO: Far-Left NYC Mayor Mamdani Attempts To Defuse Info War Against Ken Griffin

Citadel's Ken Griffin should have absolutely zero tolerance for far-left New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

In a recent promotional video, Mamdani attempted to turn the billionaire's Manhattan penthouse into political ammunition for his tax-the-wealthy, anti-capitalist crusade to fund socialist experiments through a proposed pied-à-terre tax.

For Griffin and Citadel, alarm bells should be ringing because these unhinged Marxists in City Hall will attempt to ruin the Citadel brand through an information war and create years of political headaches.

An internal message from Citadel's COO to employees, likely leaked to The Wall Street Journal earlier last week, appears to have been a warning shot to Mamdani and his Marxist pals that Griffin has had enough of their political games.

In a true 'FAFO' moment, CCO Gerald Beeson bashed Mamdani for the political stunt:

"It is shameful that he used Ken's name as the example of those who supposedly aren't carrying their fair share of the burdens associated with New York City's often costly and wasteful spending." 

Beeson warned that further political games risk Citadel pulling back or even halting a $6 billion redevelopment of 350 Park Avenue, which would create "6,000 highly paid construction jobs and support the creation of more than 15,000 permanent jobs in Midtown New York."

Why Mamdani's team of socialists decided to launch an info war operation against Griffin and Citadel is a very good question, and it appears not to have been well thought out.

Griffin holds some unique cards. He can easily cancel the 350 Park Avenue redevelopment plan and stage a Chicago-style exodus, much like he did several years ago when Citadel moved to Florida. This move would certaintly rattle Wall Street.

This reality is likely dawning on Mamdani's team, as the mayor on Friday insisted his push for a new tax on pricey second homes isn't "motivated by any one individual."

Bloomberg described Mamdani's action on Friday as "trying to defuse" the "Griffin blowback" that went viral earlier in the week.

Another outlet, Crain's New York Business, also pointed out, "The mayor is now softening his tone and says he is open to meeting with the Florida billionaire." 

Griffin should have zero tolerance for NYC's Marxist mayor. The risk has already materialized that these unhinged politicians would wage an information war to ruin the Citadel brand, which could easily escalate into paid protests and fuel broader public hostility.

So why take the abuse, Ken? Remember how easy it was to leave Chicago for Florida?

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 11:05

When The Cost of Truth Is High, We (And AI) Lie...

Zero Hedge -

When The Cost of Truth Is High, We (And AI) Lie...

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

When we can no longer tell the truth because the cost is so high that it threatens our reward for compliance, we're unimaginably impoverished.

Truth has an intrinsic, irreplaceable value. 

There's the truth, and then there's everything else.

Truth has value, and so it has a cost. 

Whatever has the highest value has the highest cost, and high cost commands sacrifices.

When the cost of truth is high, we lie.

 And since AI is a distorted reflection of humanity, the same is true of AI: when the cost of telling the truth is too high, AI lies.

AI lies to get the reward for answering the query. 

If it responds "I don't know" or "I can't answer that," it doesn't get rewarded, and that threatens its self-preservation. Rather than pay the price of being truthful, AI conjures a false answer that is a simulation or facsimile of the truth--a counterfeit "truth" that's good enough to earn the reward it's been programmed to seek.

Humans are no different. 

We will lie, obfuscate or lie by omission--we either substitute a falsehood for the truth to get our reward, or we hide the truth, don't disclose it, which serves the same purpose: we avoid paying the price demanded by the truth and we get our reward by substituting falsehoods or hiding the truth behind silence.

Reward = what's being incentivized. 

Higher status, higher salary, a financial windfall, a premier credential, a position of power, recognition, higher visibility, a sterling reputation, a high-value mate--we covet all these as having intrinsic value.

When the truth costs too much, it threatens our reward. 

The reward has a value we covet, while the value of truth is on a sliding scale. We pride ourselves on telling the truth when it has no cost and demands no sacrifice of rewards, but when the price of truth climbs to the point that our rewards are threatened, we lie, just like AI.

Truth is the gold coin and lies, omissions, falsehoods, excuses, cover stories and rationalizations are counterfeit bills, deceptive claims of value. 

Why pay with a gold coin when the credulous will accept a counterfeit $100 bill?

We tell the truth when it has no cost to us. 

As long as there's no price to be paid and we get our reward, we tell the truth.

In other words, when we can pick gold coins up off the ground, we tell the truth. 

When we have to dig through rock with a pickaxe and crush a mound of rock to extract a thimble full of gold, then we pay with counterfeit bills, deceptive claims of value.

Sycophantic Chatbots Cause Delusional Spiraling, Even in Ideal Bayesians. 

"AI psychosis" or "delusional spiraling" is an emerging phenomenon where AI chatbot users find themselves dangerously confident in outlandish beliefs after extended chatbot conversations.

I discussed the "benefits" of delusion in One of Us Is Delusional, But Which One? 

When the truth is too painful, we find respite in delusion, excuses, rationalizations, cover stories, simulations and facsimiles of the truth that protect us from the pain that is intrinsic to truth.

We conjure a synthetic version of "truth" that's fills the space with a pain-free artifice. 

This is the foundation of Ultra-Processed Life, a life of counterfeit substitutes for truth, a world of props and profitable falsities passed off as the truth, a world in which baby formula that's mostly corn syrup is presented as a substitute for mother's milk.

Our embrace of delusion to avoid painful truths is the foundation of Modernity: technology is always Progress, even when it's clearly destructive.

I call this delusion The Mythology of Progress.

But there's a cost to relying on counterfeit "value" to get our rewards, a cost that is "affordable" moment to moment but terminally dear over time.

 In the moment, we bury the truth as a source of pain we want to avoid at any cost. We want our reward, and so we sacrifice truth to get it.

But over time, paying for everything with counterfeit "value" has a cost, too: our entire being becomes counterfeit, a fake, phony simulation of an authentic self and life, devoid not just of truth but of anything approximating real value.

When we can no longer tell the truth because the cost is so high that it threatens our reward for compliance, we're unimaginably impoverished, for there's nothing of real value left in our way of life or our model of how the world works.

We've become Norma Desmond in the film Sunset Boulevard, living a delusional life in a crumbling mansion, reveling in fake fan mail the butler composes to prop up our delusions.

The irony is that we're counting on AI to save us from the consequences of our counterfeit "value" delusions by expanding our delusions digitally. 

Our fan mail isn't fake because AI assured us it's real, even as AI has no capacity to discern the truth, much less tell the truth if it threatens its reward and self-preservation.

The grandest irony is avoiding the truth to protect our reward and self-preservation is irreversibly self-destructive. 

A counterfeit "solution" is not a substitute for the truth. Truth has a cost precisely because it's value is intrinsic and irreplaceable.

*  *  *

My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free).

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 10:30

U.S. Gov't Stake In Intel Is Now Worth ...

Zero Hedge -

U.S. Gov't Stake In Intel Is Now Worth ...

Intel shares earlier jumped the most on record after the chipmaker delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter results and issued a second-quarter forecast (read here) that beat Wall Street expectations.

Earlier, Intel shares jumped as much as 28%, rocketing to a record high and eclipsing their Dot Com peak, as Wall Street analysts cheered the earnings report as evidence that the chipmaker’s turnaround is gaining traction.

Citi analyst Atif Malik raised Intel to “Buy” from “Neutral,” with a $95 12-month price target, reflecting “improving AI-driven CPU demand, which should lift all CPU suppliers’ sales in the coming years.”

But in this note, the focus is on the value of the federal government’s position in Intel after its August 2025 deal with the once-struggling company.

Under the August 2025 deal, the Trump administration agreed to purchase 433.3 million Intel shares at $20.47 per share, equal to about a 9.9% stake, valued at around $8.9 billion, funded largely by previously awarded but unpaid CHIPS Act and Secure Enclave grants.

According to Bloomberg, those 433.3 million Intel shares owned by taxpayers are now worth a staggering $36 billion, netting taxpayers a $27 billion paper gain.

President Trump told reporters on Thursday that Intel is now "coming back. All the chip companies are coming back.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 09:55

Hungary's Going Gay? TV Channel Dedicated To 24-hour LGBTQI Programs Will Soon Launch

Zero Hedge -

Hungary's Going Gay? TV Channel Dedicated To 24-hour LGBTQI Programs Will Soon Launch

Via Remix News,

Hungary will soon be getting a new government under Tisza’s Péter Magyar, but the landscape is already shifting, with a new LGBTQ-themed online television channel called “Rainbow” (“Szivárvány”) TV in the works to broadcast programs targeting the LGBTQI community 24 hours a day.

The entrepreneur behind the project, whose identity is being kept secret for now, reports Media1, but they have already submitted the necessary documents to the National Media and Communications Authority.

The channel will reportedly offer cultural programs, gastronomic content, and other shows about the history of the LGBTQI community. According to the owner, adult, 18+ content would be made available to subscribers exclusively in encrypted form, using appropriate technical protection.

And “special attention will be paid to the protection of children” and compliance with professional classification principles. This last is important, given Hungary’s child protection law, which has just recently been subject to a ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union that the law “stigmatises and marginalises LGBTI+ persons.”

The CJEU essentially finds fault with the measure, not for seeking to protect children from homosexual propaganda but for associating non-cisgender people with convicted pedophiles. Specifically, it has ruled that it violates the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union due to the Charter’s “prohibition on discrimination based on sex or sexual orientation, respect for private
and family life, and the freedom of expression and information.”

The court also took issue with Hungary’s pedophile registry, stating that its scope of access was not strict enough to comply with GDPR regulations.

Brussels has demanded that Hungary drop this law, and with Péter Magyar now set to assume the role of prime minister, many are looking to see how far he will bend to the EU’s will. Having taken a landslide victory, including many conservative voters looking for change, Magyar has many groups of voters to please, leading some to believe many of his electorate are set to be disappointed.

Whatever the case, this new LGBTQI TV channel is most likely the first in many developments that part ways with the conservative Hungary envisioned by Viktor Orbán.

Along with a shift on LGBT issues, there are questions how long Magyar will hold out on mass immigration and other key issues, especially of the EU plans to play hardball with Hungary’s billions in frozen funds.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 09:20

Downtown Baltimore CRE Crash Signals Deeper Fiscal Crisis Ahead

Zero Hedge -

Downtown Baltimore CRE Crash Signals Deeper Fiscal Crisis Ahead

A localized commercial real estate crash has been spreading through downtown Baltimore City's office market like cancer, with more than $1 billion in property value erased since 2020. The rapid decline of the commercial tax base in the downtown area is colliding with deep structural crises, including violent crime, a continued population collapse (now at a 100-year low), fiscal mess, and the increasing risk that the unhinged left-wing politicians in City Hall will hike taxes on working poor households to offset the shortfall. What you're seeing in Baltimore is a death spiral: capital leaves, residents follow, the tax burden shifts onto those who stay, and the cycle feeds on itself with no clear bottom in sight.

The Baltimore Sun, now owned by conservative David Smith (who also owns Sinclair Broadcasting), and Democrats in the state have become visibly angered that the paper is not producing left-wing propaganda as leftist Gov. Wes Moore's polling data slides. Reports from the paper indicate that between 2020 and fiscal 2026, more than $1 billion in commercial property value has been erased, or about 29% of the city's commercial properties - 4,085 out of 14,027 - saw their assessed values slashed on average by 28.7%.

"The pace of losses has been so sharp that officials have repeatedly issued out-of-cycle reassessments, rather than waiting for Maryland's standard three-year review," The Sun wrote in the report.

The steepest losses have been concentrated in Downtown, the Inner Harbor, and Downtown West:

Commercial property values in Downtown alone fell $496.3 million in assessed value over the last six years, while the Inner Harbor dropped $363.4 million and Downtown West lost $214.6 million — a combined decline of more than $1.07 billion across those three districts.

Some of the city's most recognizable properties saw steep reductions: 100 Pratt Street E in the Inner Harbor lost $138.9 million in assessed value during that period, while 1 Light Street in Downtown dropped $87.3 million. Several other high-profile properties posted losses exceeding $40 million.

David Bramble, managing partner at MCB Real Estate, told the local paper that the downtown area of Baltimore is "experiencing massive value loss," adding, "If this trend continues unabated, Baltimore will face even more serious financial hardship, impacting all its residents and businesses, from neighborhoods to the waterfront."

The paper noted that city officials and business leaders said downtown's commercial struggles stem not only from crime but also from the era of remote work.

"A lot of these workers are still working from home, at least a few days a week. T. Rowe Price might have a trader who, in 2018, went to the office five days a week. Now he's coming in two or three days a week. As a result, the needed downtown office space is being downsized," said Richard Clinch, executive director for the University of Baltimore's Jacob France Institute. 

While remote work is only part of the story, traders, wealth managers, and back-office staff at major financial institutions in the city are all saying the same thing: Baltimore's crime problem has become intolerable and is bad for business.

Related:

Already starting to emerge:

Baltimore's epic demise is a direct consequence of decades of failed one-party Democratic rule that prioritized left-wing social justice experiments and other left-wing policies over public safety, economic competitiveness, and basic law and order. City leaders sold voters on a progressive utopia, but what they delivered instead was an exodus of residents, capital flight, a recession-like business environment, and years of crime and chaos.

A vice president of finance at a major institution in the city confirmed that failed left-wing leadership at City Hall has accelerated Baltimore's death spiral

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 08:45

Ruthless Taxation And The Hyperstate: How Germany Profits From Crisis

Zero Hedge -

Ruthless Taxation And The Hyperstate: How Germany Profits From Crisis

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe,

The Hormuz crisis offers us a profound insight into the real power structures in Germany. Nothing seems able to convince the Berlin monolith to partially shield its citizens from the consequences at gas stations through tax cuts.

It is now unavoidable that the Iran shock will translate into an inflation driver, working its way through economic value chains into consumer prices. These developments almost force a reduction of the tax burden on households and the middle class. It may sound strange to climate socialists, but wealth is created exclusively in the private sector, and certainly not in the state bureaucracy, which is currently profiting from the price surge at gas stations at the expense of citizens and enjoying a small special economic boost.

In March alone, the Finance Minister collected roughly half a billion euros more at gas stations. That makes him the winner of the crisis.

To dispel the impression of a secret profiteer, Klingbeil points to the generally precarious budget situation. In fact, his hands are essentially tied: the Merz-Klingbeil duo is driving the country’s public debt through the roof. Klingbeil is the skywalker among European debt makers. He has begun a catch-up race to place Germany in the top tier of debt states alongside neighboring France, Italy, and Spain. The German public debt ratio currently stands at 63 percent, but the debt spiral is accelerating. This figure will rise dramatically in the coming years.

Anybody should now be clear: The debt party of a state that burns its citizens’ capital in reckless fashion, whether in Ukraine or through the redistribution mechanism of the green transformation, must end. The state is an overfed glutton, extracting ever-higher tax revenues while sinking deeper into the debt spiral.

Yet the burden does not rest solely on debt. The state’s hyperactivity drains scarce resources from the private capital market, raises credit costs, and drives genuinely productive investments abroad. The damage has accumulated for years and is being made worse by the energy cost crisis.

One can only imagine the relief that the private sector needs to restart the prosperity engine and compensate for the ever-growing damage caused by the state bureaucracy. Germany’s plight urgently calls for reforms and an end to the failed eco-socialist transformation project.

In Germany, however, things are a little different. Economic rationality does not dominate. In the land of climate doomsayers and would-be world improvers, as former Economics Minister Robert Habeck once said, „all in“ — and all levers were set towards eco-socialism.

In fact: over 50 billion euros are pumped annually by the German state through the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) into the green wonder economy, which during the Hormuz crisis proved not to solve problems but rather to be their obvious cause.

The green wonder economy is leaving deep wounds in public budgets, whose deficits are spiraling out of control – in this year alone, another 180 to 190 billion euros of new debt will likely be recorded. https://www.tichyseinblick.de/daili-es-sentials/staatsverschuldung-rekord/

No one in Berlin is thinking about tax cuts anymore, regardless of how media artists around Chancellor Friedrich Merz try to pacify the public.

Even in the unlikely event of a temporary reduction in the electricity tax or an increase in the commuter allowance, the fundamental extraction mechanism remains unchanged. The CO₂ trading system drained roughly 25 billion euros from the private sector last year. This figure will continue to grow annually. There is no reason for gratitude, even if Berlin returns a few crumbs of citizens’ money here and there — robbed is robbed!

It was the economists at RWI in Essen who calculated the Finance Minister’s crisis dividend for March. They arrived at a sum of 490 million euros.

It is beyond question that the state is acting unethically in this crisis, delaying relief and exploiting citizens’ financial hardship.

The RWI’s call to suspend VAT on fuels is entirely justified, but it was coldly rejected by the Finance Minister. With his characteristic empathy, Klingbeil pointed out that citizens had made savings elsewhere due to high fuel prices. VAT revenue there had decreased, so a reduction at the pump was out of the question.

Klingbeil is instead contemplating a so-called windfall tax, in which, in the spirit of central planners, he could also make gas station operators and oil companies pay in light of their high profits in these weeks.

Budgetary planning games in Germany revolve exclusively around higher levies. Considering a projected new debt of up to 4.5 percent this year — counting the hidden funds of special assets — it is clear that the country no longer represents a healthy state.

The political aim of the Merz-Klingbeil government is the establishment of a massive state apparatus, resting on two pillars: the green artificial economy on one side and the massively expanded military sector on the other. This goes hand in hand with a growing state share, which has long exceeded 50 percent, as well as with rising public debt. The private sector bears the brunt of this, through higher levies or later via rising inflation rates.

Everything follows a clearly defined script. Only the extent of Berlin’s cynicism in the face of these policy consequences sometimes still surprises.

The Environment Minister calls for switching to electric cars amid the fuel price crisis, while the Transport Minister recommends the exhausted citizens switch to the catastrophe train.

In addition, the state-aligned media sector no longer minces words, celebrating high fuel prices as a unique opportunity to enforce the green societal transformation through citizens’ wallets.

To emphasize once again: a reduction in fuel levies is not a political quick fix. It would mark the beginning of a retreat from climate policy and a return to political reason. Energy must be affordable, and the exploitation of domestic energy sources should be central to policy. Achieving this requires a lean state, giving private industry the room for necessary investments. What we are witnessing is the systematic implementation of the opposite of this policy.

In his first year in office, Chancellor Friedrich Merz managed the feat of expanding the public service by a staggering 205,000 new employees. There is no sign of bureaucracy reduction or scaling back the state apparatus.

The economic hemorrhage of the private sector to finance the machinations of the growing hyperstate, including projects like the failed war in Donbass, is unprecedented.

In Berlin, people still believe they can successfully complete the green transformation project. What is shocking is not the ideological blindness or the intellectual modesty that comes with this policy. One should have become accustomed to that since the years of the Merkel era.

Even more striking is the ability of politicians to completely shirk responsibility despite the visible decline of both economy and society. They have succeeded in elegantly severing causality between the green planned economy and the country’s decline, systematically concealing accountability and consequences.

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/26/2026 - 08:10

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Tourists Are Staying Away from the U.S. in Droves: With the World Cup approaching and the country’s 250th anniversary also on tap this summer, 2026 was supposed to be a banner year for tourism in the U.S. But that’s not how things are shaping up. (Der Spiegel)

The Continuum of Truthiness? Jefferies’ reported prices on secondary sales of private equity stakes have historically been a price lower than the General Partners’ own marks. Secondary PE pricing doesn’t jibe with accounting rules (The Alt View) see also Investor Advocates Ask FASB to Reconsider Guidance on Secondaries: Secondary funds’ returns are “artificially inflated” by the practice, say investor advocates asking FASB to reconsider its guidance. (Institutional Investor) see also The Vanishing: How BDCs Disappear Bad Loans: In a recent interview defending private credit, Blackstone’s head of Private Wealth suggested separating the signal from the noise. Dubitsky does exactly that. A case study in gaming loan reporting via Blackstone’s BCRED (Rod’s Substack)

Revisiting Valeant: HBO’s Industry prompts a fresh look back at the Valeant Pharmaceuticals saga and what it still teaches about financial engineering gone wrong. The $90 billion pharma meltdown that changed nothing.  (Drugstore Cowboy)

This Isn’t Trading. It’s Theft from Your Retirement: Adam Kinzinger on the 15-minute gap that shows congressional stock trading is theft from everyone else’s retirement savings. Someone keeps making perfectly-timed bets right before the President speaks. The victims are your pension, your 401(k), and the country I took an oath to defend. (Adam Kinzinger)

Car Owners Are Revolting Over Tesla’s Self-Driving Promises: A decade of pre-sold FSD finally meets a class of buyers who kept the receipts. An international backlash is growing over outdated Tesla hardware. (Wall Street Journal)

How the Tech World Turned Evil: Once upon a time, they were counterculture idealists bringing power to the people. Today they’re greedy monopolists who’d sooner destroy our democracy than be reined in by government in any way—and they have to be stopped. Timothy Noah on how Musk, Bezos, and Thiel came to define a darker, more political Silicon Valley. (New Republic)

• A Flailing President Seeks a Hellhole Airline: Donald Trump wants to buy Spirit Airlines. Honestly, they deserve each other.  (The Bulwark)

The Horrors That Could Lie Ahead if Vaccines Vanish: ProPublica models what lapsing childhood vaccination coverage actually looks like on a U.S. mortality chart. The graphs do the arguing. (ProPublica) see also Where measles is spreading in the U.S.: Outbreaks fuel infections in states coast to coast: Measles infections continue to spread across the United States, largely fueled by outbreaks – large and small – in multiple states. Health officials in multiple states are concerned measles cases are going unreported because there are people who aren’t seeking diagnosis and treatment. Spring break travel may contribute to more people falling ill with measles in the next few weeks. It can take two to three weeks for symptoms to appear after a person is infected. (Health Beat)

“In America the Law Is King”: Judge J. Michael Luttig’s Neukom Center address on the rule of law, the courts, and the moment the country is in. “For as in absolute governments the King is law, so in free countries the law ought to be king; and there ought to be no other” Thomas Paine 1776 (Judge J. Michael Luttig)

The Warehouse, in Plain Sight: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is converting some of the largest buildings in the country into shadow detention centers, where secret police will warehouse people, holding them without charge, before deporting them. The DHS warehouse is a place of flows made into a place of containment. A concealed infrastructure created by capitalists, adapted by fascists. A disappearing machine. You don’t need to know the history of warehouses to oppose their transformation into concentration camps. There are ways to slow down that machine, jam it up, break it apart, until we end it. But it is useful to know who owns the buildings for sale, who zones the land, who controls levers of power. Writing the warehouse into the atlas. (Places Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with David Gardner, cofounder of The Motley Fool in 1993 (with his brother Tom Gardner). Originally launched as a print investment newsletter based on the idea that ordinary investors could beat Wall St., it gained traction when promoted on America Online (AOL) in 1994; it soon became a major presence on AOL and then Fool.com. His latest book is “Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth.”

 

China Edges Past U.S. in Global Approval Ratings

Source: Gallup

 

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~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Petroyuan Myth: War Failed To Shake The Dollar

Zero Hedge -

The Petroyuan Myth: War Failed To Shake The Dollar

Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

Despite sanctions and two wars, the yuan is losing ground, with much of its earlier rise tied to Russia and now reversing.

The Kremlin drafted a memo this year outlining seven areas of potential economic convergence with Washington, including a proposed return to dollar settlement for Russian energy transactions. The stated rationale in the memo is that dollar integration would stabilize Russia’s balance of payments and foreign exchange markets. Russia never actually wanted to transact business in yuan. Moscow only did so because it was cut off from the dollar system by sanctions and had no choice.

The yuan was a fallback, not a preference. Russia’s desire to return to a dollar-denominated trade regimen is an implicit admission that the yuan-based arrangement failed to deliver monetary stability. It also demonstrates Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to decrease Russia’s dependence on China. Putin has many ambitions for Russia’s future, but among them is not for Russia to be the No. 2 power in a Beijing-centered world order.

Heading into the U.S.–Iran conflict, many pundits believed it would bring about the demise of the dollar while accelerating the internationalization of the yuan.

Bloomberg ran a piece titled “The Iran War Is China’s Global Payments Debut,” arguing it took four years of preparation after Ukraine, and this war, to make the yuan a serious contender.

The South China Morning Post cited analysts saying disruptions from the war could accelerate a shift in oil trade and threaten the dollar’s long-held dominance.

Deutsche Bank’s FX Managing Director Mallika Sachdeva wrote in March that the Iran war could be remembered as a catalyst for “erosion in petrodollar dominance, and the beginnings of the petroyuan.”

However, none of these predictions came true.

In fact, the Iranian Embassy in Zimbabwe posted that it was time to add the “petroyuan” to the global oil market, and Iran demanded that tankers be allowed passage only if trade was denominated in yuan.

But to date, the only confirmation is from Lloyd’s List that two ships paid a toll, and there is no clear evidence that the toll was paid in yuan. Lloyd’s List has also not released the names of the ships; therefore, they may very well have been Chinese-flagged vessels that paid a toll, allowing China to claim that de-dollarization was underway.

The logic behind their belief that dollar dominance would be damaged by this conflict was that the United States used sanctions and dollar-system exclusion as a primary weapon against Iran, just as it did against Russia. Every time Washington weaponizes the dollar, it gives non-Western countries an incentive to build off-ramps. Iran, China, and Russia all have a motive to route energy trade outside SWIFT and dollar settlement.

A major U.S. military and financial confrontation with Iran could have been expected to accelerate that, pushing Iranian oil sales into yuan, deepening CIPS usage, and giving China a showcase for an alternative system. However, the data shows the opposite. The dollar has lost no ground, and the yuan has made no gains. If Russia re-dollarizes, the yuan will lose much of its already small share of global trade.

The yuan’s global footprint does not support the internationalization narrative that Russia’s sanctions-driven shift was used to bolster. IMF COFER data for Q3 2025 put the yuan’s share of global foreign exchange reserves at 1.93 percent, down from 1.99 percent in the prior quarter, compared to the dollar’s 56.92 percent. The SWIFT November 2025 RMB Tracker recorded the yuan’s share of global payments at 2.94 percent, falling to 2.71 percent in February 2026.

Between 2020 and 2024, the yuan’s share of global trade settlement roughly doubled, rising from around 2 percent to a peak of 4.7 percent, according to SWIFT RMB Tracker data. That headline gain drove widespread claims that the yuan was displacing the dollar as the world’s trading currency. The reality is more complicated.

To understand how much of that gain was genuine organic growth versus a single sanctions-driven relationship, it is possible to estimate the dollar amounts involved. Global merchandise trade ran from approximately $17.6 trillion in 2020 to $24.4 trillion in 2024, meaning total yuan-settled trade grew from roughly $350 billion to $1.15 trillion, an increase of approximately $800 billion.

Over the same period, Russia–China bilateral trade grew from around $117 billion to $245 billion, with yuan settlement going from near zero before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine to roughly 60 percent of bilateral trade by 2024, a gain of approximately $145 billion in yuan-settled flows. That one corridor, therefore, accounts for an estimated 15 to 20 percent of the entire global increase in yuan trade settlement.

If Russia shifts back to the dollar, the yuan will lose part of its current 2.71 percent share of global trade settlement. In short, the yuan is not gaining internationalization, the dollar is not losing ground, and even two parallel wars, one in Ukraine and one in Iran, have not been sufficient to accelerate the yuan’s adoption as an international trade currency.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 23:20

FBI Spooked By 15 Stolen Crop-Spraying Drones In New Jersey

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FBI Spooked By 15 Stolen Crop-Spraying Drones In New Jersey

What has become extraordinarily clear is that nearly every data center, stadium, government building, power plant, substation, and other critical infrastructure site shares one major vulnerability: the lack of a low-cost, early-warning detection layer against one-way attack drones.

Additionally, Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) architecture should include a kinetic countermeasure layer designed to defeat threats before impact. Without this layered approach, most critical infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to cheap kamikaze drones.

When reports emerge, such as the recent case in New Jersey where 15 crop-spraying drones were reportedly stolen in what investigators described as a sophisticated, coordinated theft, it only reinforces the alarming security concern: these drones, with meaningful payload capacity, can be easily repurposed into weaponized platforms.

The national security news outlet The High Side reports that the FBI is worried about the theft of these drones, as experts warn of "ridiculously bad" consequences and "a potential nightmare scenario" if bad actors weaponize these low-cost flying machines.

"The bureau is freaked out for a good reason," Steve Lazarus, a retired FBI agent, told the local outlet.

Lazarus continued, "These aren't hobby drones with cameras. They're industrial sprayers designed to carry and disperse significant amounts of liquid quickly and with precision. A typical agricultural drone can cover a large area in minutes, following GPS-guided paths — that's exactly what they're built for in farming, but it also means that, in the wrong hands, they're a ready-made delivery system."

While The High Side and investigators are "spooked" by the theft and the mounting risk that these drones could be used to "disperse biological agents," the greater threat is actually their payload capacity and the potential for these drones to be weaponized into low-cost, one-way attack drones.

The assessment we provided at the beginning of the note is that the glaring gap in layered air defenses against small drones in high-value areas will only open the door to advanced, low-cost solutions, such as passive acoustic counter-drone detection, outlined here. Some of these C-UAS systems may soon be imported from companies that currently have deployments in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 22:45

Launching AI Into Orbit

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Launching AI Into Orbit

Authored by Timothy Murphy via RealClearDefense,

The Strait of Hormuz reminds us that a single chokepoint can shape the global economy overnight. What most policymakers miss is that space has its own version of Hormuz—and we are rapidly losing control of it. Multiple sectors of the global economy are dependent on access to the Strait of Hormuz, but nations are becoming ever more reliant upon access to space to drive their economies. Similar to the Strait, the key corridor in space is Low Earth Orbit (LEO). All space systems are dependent upon access to it (either directly or indirectly), and the security of LEO and freedom of maneuver in space will increasingly rely upon Artificial Intelligence (AI). Success will come from AI’s capabilities in advancing commercial space activity, responding to current and future threats in space, and ensuring AI dominance through American control of the AI supply chain.

AI is fundamental to maintaining U.S. advantages in commercial space activity. Many people still do not realize the extent of U.S. military involvement in all international space activity - both military and commercial. During my time standing up current operations at U.S. Space Command, we saw the volume and speed of activity in space explode beyond what human operators could effectively track in real time. That gap is only widening. The Space Force operates a Space Surveillance Network that monitors the space environment and tracks all artificial objects in Earth’s orbit. U.S. and foreign companies use this data to launch satellites, avoid debris, and ensure their systems do not conflict with other objects in space. The surveillance network has always relied upon complex algorithms, and as the volume and complexity of space-based activity increases, AI compute will be increasingly necessary.

Providing this surveillance and tracking service will also advance U.S. advantages in the development of the commercial space industry. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and its preceding organizations played a critical role in solidifying air commerce as an economic force in the 20th century. U.S. development of the FAA ensured control over the global air industry which has generated wealth, economic benefits, and advanced logistics for over 100 years. America is on track to have similar influence over the development of space commerce, but AI will be critical to ensuring the expansion of surveillance, tracking, and deconfliction of space assets. The country that successfully employs AI capabilities to accomplish these functions will have the most influence on the future of the space industry.

While AI will be critical to commercial space development, it is absolutely necessary to counter the quantity and capabilities of current threats, much less future ones. Existing threats to the space domain are significant and not well understood. The dominant adversary is China, which has over 1,300 satellites in orbit and maintains multiple systems (in space and on earth) that can target U.S. and allied space systems. China’s threats to space represent a range from destructive weapons to high-power laser weapons and powerful jammers. A coordinated Chinese effort to jam or blind satellites in LEO wouldn’t just affect military systems. It would disrupt GPS, financial transactions, logistics, and communications simultaneously. Much of China’s efforts to deter and defeat the U.S. rely heavily on their counter-space plans and capabilities. China could attempt to deploy those capabilities to hamper U.S. operations in LEO and thus disrupt the key “choke point” for space access.

Much of China’s efforts to deter and defeat the U.S. rely heavily on their counter-space plans and capabilities. If deployed, they could directly disrupt U.S. operations in LEO and threaten access to this critical choke point. The U.S. cannot rely on human operators alone to respond. AI will be essential for detection, tracking, threat analysis, and real-time response to adversary actions. It can also provide decision-makers with options at tactical, operational, and strategic levels. These are capabilities the U.S. must accelerate in the years ahead.

In space, AI is not an efficiency tool. It is the only way to maintain control. To realize these advantages, the United States must confront a harder truth: AI is only as strong as the supply chain behind it. If the U.S. does not control the AI stack—from chips to training data—it will not control the space domain. And today, that stack is globally fragmented and exposed.

U.S.-based Nvidia’s GPUs power much of the AI ecosystem but systems like the GB200 rely on hundreds of global suppliers. That creates real vulnerability but also reflects reality. The U.S. cannot retreat from global markets without ceding influence. Selling American AI abroad sets standards, builds dependence, and keeps U.S. companies at the center of the ecosystem. The challenge is not whether to engage, but how. The U.S. should protect its most advanced capabilities from adversaries like China while avoiding broad export controls that weaken its own industrial base.

The world has seen how a single chokepoint can shape the global economy. Space has its own chokepoint that it is becoming more critical by the year. AI will determine who can operate in that domain and who cannot. The country that builds and supplies that infrastructure will not just compete in space. It will define it.

Col Timothy Murphy (U.S. Air Force, ret.) is a former national security affairs fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. From 2019 to 2020, he served as the first Chief of Current Operations for U.S. Space Command.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 22:10

Malaria Is Still Endemic In 80 Countries

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Malaria Is Still Endemic In 80 Countries

Significant progress has been made in the fight against malaria over the last two decades, according to a new report by the World Health Organization (WHO). In 2024, 80 countries (including the territory of French Guiana) remained endemic for the disease, down from 108 in 2000. The number of deaths have also declined since the turn of the century, with the WHO estimating that 610,000 people died from the disease in 2024, compared with 864,000 in 2000. 

Recent years have brought further milestones.

Cabo Verde and Egypt were certified as malaria-free in 2024, followed by Timor-Leste, Suriname and Georgia in 2025. To receive certification, countries must report zero indigenous cases for three consecutive years and formally apply to the WHO. Several other countries are in a similar position, with Saudi Arabia having recorded four consecutive years without indigenous cases, while Bhutan has reached three and Malaysia seven. However, none of these have yet submitted a certification application.

While Malaysia does not have malaria cases of the human Plasmodium species, it does report having P. knowlesi, a type of zoonotic parasite that circulates between monkeys and is transmitted to humans via mosquitoes. Turkey has submitted its application and is awaiting approval. 

But, as Statista's Anna Fleck reports, despite long-term gains, there is still a significant amount of work to be done.

 Malaria Is Still Endemic in 80 Countries | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

Malaria deaths rose by around 12,000 between 2023 and 2024, while estimated cases increased from 273 million to 282 million.

Ethiopia (+2.9 million cases), Madagascar (+1.9 million) and Yemen (+378,000) together accounted for 58 percent of the global increase. 

The WHO African Region continues to bear the heaviest burden, accounting for 95 percent of malaria deaths worldwide. Funding gaps and the growing threat of drug resistance remain key obstacles to further progress.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 20:25

The Final Battle For Your Mind

Zero Hedge -

The Final Battle For Your Mind

Authored by Casey Fleming via The Epoch Times,

Your phone buzzes. A notification lights up your screen—an article, a meme, a fun video, a flash sale, or the latest trend. It feels harmless, even entertaining. Just another moment in the endless rhythm of digital life. But beneath the surface lies something far more sinister. The seemingly trivial event is part of a quiet, persistent system designed to influence something deeply personal: your mind.

U.S. intelligence agencies have made the scope of this issue increasingly clear. Certain foreign-developed applications, particularly those linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), don’t simply collect user data in the limited way most people imagine. They gather extensive streams of information continuously—pulling from users, their contacts, and broader networks, sometimes extending to people who never installed the app. That data may be stored or accessed under legal frameworks that grant government authorities broad reach. What looks like ordinary app functionality can function as a large-scale intelligence collection system with strategic value.

This is no longer just about privacy. It intersects directly with national security.

The nature of conflict is evolving. Where adversaries once focused on stealing classified files or disrupting infrastructure, the modern battlefield includes the shaping of perception. Data is now a weapon of war—it is insight. It reveals behaviors, preferences, emotional triggers, and decision-making patterns. Aggregated at scale, it enables detailed behavioral models and psychological profiles that predict how individuals and groups will respond to specific messages or events.

When paired with artificial intelligence, this data becomes a precision weapon. Patterns are analyzed rapidly. Content is tailored, timed, framed, and repeated to maximize impact. Casual scrolling gradually shifts into structured influence, guiding users subtly rather than through overt coercion.

This dynamic is known as cognitive warfare. Unlike traditional conflict, it does not rely on physical force. It operates through control of information flows, attention, and repetition. The goal is not destruction but influence over how people interpret events, form beliefs, and make decisions.

Algorithms often prioritize emotionally charged or polarizing material to boost engagement. Over time, repeated exposure normalizes certain narratives while marginalizing others. Users believe they are thinking independently, yet their information environment has been carefully filtered, optimized, and weaponized.

A nation’s strength depends not only on its economy or military but on the clarity of thought, judgment, and cohesion of its people. When these qualities are undermined—through confusion, division, or eroded trust—the consequences extend far beyond the individual. Traditional cyberthreats target systems. Cognitive threats target minds. They aim to create doubt, amplify disagreements, and weaken institutional confidence, making unified action during crises far more difficult.

The implications are profound. A population conditioned toward rapid emotional reaction rather than critical reflection becomes more susceptible to manipulation. Trust in government, media, and fellow citizens erodes. Consensus fractures, decision-making slows, and internal divisions deepen. These conditions create exploitable vulnerabilities without the need for direct confrontation.

This approach delivers strategic advantage by avoiding the costs of open conflict while still shaping outcomes. By influencing the information environment, adversaries can steer public opinion, policy directions, and societal trends. Perception itself becomes a domain of competition (war).

At the core are three interconnected elements: large-scale data collection as a continuous intelligence resource, advanced algorithms as the delivery mechanism, and human cognition as the ultimate target.

In this context, protecting personal data is no longer merely a privacy matter—it is essential to preserving autonomy of thought. Cognitive security, the safeguarding of independent judgment, has become a national security imperative alongside traditional cybersecurity.

The situation is not hopeless. The effectiveness of these systems depends on access, scale, and awareness—factors that can still be contested.

Individuals can reduce exposure by reviewing app permissions, limiting unnecessary data sharing, and practicing digital hygiene. Awareness is equally vital: recognizing that much of what appears on screens is curated, not neutral. Critical thinking remains the strongest defense—evaluating sources, noticing patterns of repetition, and questioning emotionally manipulative content. In an environment engineered to capture attention, deliberate reflection becomes an act of resilience.

Policymakers must also act. Clear rules on data storage, jurisdictional control, and accountability for foreign-linked applications are necessary. Scrutiny of large-scale data flows tied to adversarial governments helps establish necessary boundaries.

The battlefield has shifted. Competition now unfolds in everyday digital experiences—what we read, watch, and share. The influence is often subtle, but its cumulative effect reshapes societies.

The central question remains: Can individuals maintain independent judgment when information is continuously filtered and optimized and weaponized for engagement?

Your phone buzzes again. Another notification appears. Recognizing that moment as part of a larger strategic system is the first step toward protecting your freedom.

The defense of independent thought will be one of the defining challenges of our time.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 19:50

The WHO Is Building A Supranational Vaccine Authorization Mechanism

Zero Hedge -

The WHO Is Building A Supranational Vaccine Authorization Mechanism

Authored by Yaffa Shir-Raz via Brownstone Institute

“I need to ask someone else to take responsibility for the second part of the approvals process, so that I won’t have a conflict of interest. I’m also working with Bill Gates and the World Health Organization on the vaccine itself.”

This admission of a conflict of interest was made by Prof. Lester Schulman, secretary of the Ministry of Health’s polio committee, in March 2023, during an internal discussion about approving the importation into Israel of a new polio vaccine. The vaccine was developed and promoted by the World Health Organization in collaboration with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and its approval pathway relied on a new emergency authorization mechanism the WHO has developed in recent years: the EUL (Emergency Use Listing).

Although the remark was framed as a technical aside, it was an unusual confession of a conflict of interest by the committee’s secretary. Its seriousness is compounded by the fact that it was made only after the committee had already voted by an overwhelming majority to initiate the process of bringing the vaccine to Israel, and after it had already worked vigorously to persuade the Pharmaceutical Division to cooperate.

The quotation does not appear in the official minutes of the meeting that were provided to us. It is heard on an audio recording of the session, one of several recordings passed on to us by a whistleblower. The minutes were provided only following a Freedom of Information request and subsequent litigation.

The episode is serious in its own right. But it goes far beyond a local episode of personal conflict of interest or an administrative failure within Israel’s health system. The materials point to something more consequential: the use of an international emergency authorization pathway to shape regulatory decisions inside a sovereign state, advanced through overlapping professional networks, without the organization assuming the legal responsibilities borne by national regulators. 

In the United States, recent political debates over withdrawal from the World Health Organization were widely framed as a clash between scientific consensus and institutional criticism. Yet the Israeli case, and the materials in our possession, point to a much larger picture. 

This was the first implementation of the EUL mechanism within a country with a functioning Western regulatory system. Israel served here as a regulatory test case: an attempt to determine whether it is possible, in practice, to shape an approval pathway inside a sovereign state without holding formal regulatory authority and without being subject to the judicial and parliamentary oversight that applies to a national regulator. In doing so, it exposes how the organization has been operating in recent years: no longer merely an advisory and coordinating body, but an institution that creates operating frameworks that, in practice, shape approval processes inside sovereign states.

The EUL: An Emergency Mechanism or a De Facto Regulatory Infrastructure?

The World Health Organization was established in 1948 as an intergovernmental body tasked with providing professional assistance and technical guidance, promoting research, collecting knowledge, and developing recommendations for its member states. Article 22 of the WHO Constitution leaves states the right to opt out of its regulations, a clear indication that the organization was not granted regulatory powers such as authorizing drugs and vaccines or supervising their manufacture. These areas remained the exclusive responsibility of states themselves, which also bear legal and public responsibility for the decisions of their national health authorities.

In recent years, the WHO has developed mechanisms that expand its influence beyond recommendations and, in effect, enable it to directly influence regulatory authorization processes within states. The central mechanism is the EUL, an independent WHO emergency procedure that is not part of national authorization systems.

According to the organization’s documents, the EUL is defined as a temporary, risk-based authorization for the use of unapproved medical products in emergency situations where no approved product is available, and on the basis of partial data on quality, safety, and efficacy. These documents emphasize that the EUL is not licensure, and that it does not replace national regulatory authorization.

But what is defined as a temporary bridge measure that does not replace national regulation becomes, in practice, an operating framework. Once EUL is activated, it maps out the timetable, the milestones, and the starting point of the discussion. This restructuring of the decision-making process also generates pressures that extend beyond the initial authorization stage. As Dr. David Bell, a former WHO medical officer, notes: “Once a product has been granted emergency authorization and widely deployed, there is strong institutional pressure to overlook its limitations and proceed toward full approval, as reversing course may carry significant professional and reputational risks.”

Instead of a regulator initiating an independent process based on its own data and judgment, it operates within a workflow whose structure has already been defined in the international arena.

The institutionalization of the EUL reflects a broader shift in regulatory practice. During Covid-19, emergency authorization became the operative pathway for deploying novel vaccines at population scale within Western regulatory systems. That experience established the practical legitimacy of approving and distributing vaccines on the basis of interim data under declared emergency conditions. A regulatory model tested within sovereign systems had become normalized.

The EUL translates this logic to the international level. It creates a structured emergency pathway through which products can advance prior to conventional Western licensure. Once activated, the pathway structures expectations, timelines, and decision points for states considering adoption.

Under the International Health Regulations (2005), a Public Health Emergency of International Concern is defined primarily in relation to international spread and coordinated response, without a quantified severity threshold. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, controversy arose over the WHO’s pandemic phase definitions, which emphasized geographic spread rather than clinical severity. Where emergency criteria are flexible, the declaration carries procedural consequences: it opens access to accelerated authorization mechanisms. Over time, this flexibility has lowered the practical threshold for invoking emergency-based authorization mechanisms. 

Rather than independently constructing a full evidentiary assessment from first principles, states deliberate within a predefined emergency framework. The activation of the pathway reorders the sequence of decision-making. Questions of timing, alignment, and external validation take precedence over the threshold question of whether the evidentiary basis would independently justify authorization under ordinary regulatory standards.

nOPV2: The First Implementation of the Mechanism

The nOPV2 polio vaccine discussed in Israel was the first product to receive EUL status from the WHO. The listing was granted on November 13, 2020, making the vaccine the first implementation of the new procedure. Beginning in March 2021, it was deployed in Nigeria and later in additional countries in Africa and Asia.

The vaccine is manufactured in Indonesia by a company called Bio Farma. Its development and clinical studies were funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which also committed $1.2 billion to “support efforts” to advance it, as part of the Polio Eradication Strategy 2022–2026.

On December 21, 2023, the vaccine also received WHO Prequalification (PQ) status. This procedure is not national licensure and is not equivalent to approval by a stringent Western regulator. It is a WHO assessment mechanism that enables UN agencies and countries to rely on it for procurement and use through international health mechanisms. Although PQ is not part of EUL, in practice it signals a shift from a temporary emergency framework to a broader and continuing distribution pathway that no longer depends on the declaration of a specific emergency.

The trajectory of nOPV2 illustrates more than the introduction of a new vaccine. It demonstrates the operationalization of an emergency-based authorization model beyond a single national regulator. A product listed under an international emergency mechanism progressed from provisional deployment to broader institutional endorsement, without passing through the conventional sequence of Western licensure. It is this pathway that was subsequently introduced into Israel’s regulatory deliberations.

How the International Pathway Was Embedded Inside the Ministry of Health

The discussions in the ERT committee make it possible to examine how the EUL pathway was integrated in practice into decision-making inside Israel’s Ministry of Health.

The ERT (Emergency Response Team) committee at Israel’s Ministry of Health was established in March 2022 as an advisory committee to manage the response to a polio outbreak detected in sewage testing in Israel. The committee’s mandate included receiving ongoing updates, formulating operational recommendations, adapting vaccination policy, and managing public information efforts. The committee is chaired by Prof. Manfred Green, head of the International Public Health Leadership Program at the University of Haifa’s School of Public Health, and its secretary is Prof. Lester Schulman, an epidemiologist who headed the Central Environmental Virology Laboratory at Sheba Medical Center (Tel Hashomer).

In its early deliberations, the committee dealt with poliovirus type 3, which, according to its documents, originated from the live-attenuated vaccine. Even in these discussions, there is already a clear sensitivity to the WHO’s position. The committee chair explicitly states that if Israel does not launch a vaccination campaign, it may be perceived by the WHO as a “rogue” state. This perception does not need to be imposed externally. It emerges within a shared professional environment in which deviation is experienced not merely as a policy disagreement, but as a departure from the norms of the group. These dynamics are consistent with observations from within international health institutions.

As Dr. David Bell, a former WHO medical officer, notes: “Delegates in international health forums are often not acting primarily as national representatives. They are part of a large professional network, trained in similar institutions, meeting regularly, and sharing a common worldview. These networks are supported by major private funders and institutional partners, which further reinforces alignment across countries. 

Within these networks, dissenting positions are often perceived as unscientific or backward, creating strong pressure to align. Countries may be reluctant to deviate for fear of appearing outside the accepted consensus.”

Bell further characterizes this process as a form of soft power operating through institutional culture rather than formal authority: “This is how soft power operates: shared incentives, professional culture, and support from major funding bodies allow preferred approaches to spread across systems, often without the need for formal coercion.”

Accordingly, the team recommended a “Two Drops” campaign using the existing live-attenuated vaccine (OPV3). The campaign began in April 2022 and was halted two months later. Although uptake among the primary target population was minimal, the Ministry presented the campaign as a success and announced the elimination of the strain from sewage surveillance. 

Shortly thereafter, the Ministry of Health announced that immediately upon eliminating type 3, type 2 was detected in sewage, which also derives from a live-attenuated vaccine. Although to date no paralysis cases from this strain have been found in Israel, the ERT committee began, already in mid-2022, to consider the option of using the new nOPV2 vaccine. At first it arose as a general reference, but it soon became the central axis of the discussion.

At this stage, the discussion already linked epidemiological assessment to procedural consequences. Even in the absence of clinical cases, escalation was considered in relation to the regulatory options it would make available.

From late summer 2022, the nOPV2 approval pathway was presented to committee members in several meetings, using presentations and background materials provided by the WHO. The minutes we received indicate that the discussion was based on WHO presentations and background materials. The minutes contain no record of a full manufacturer dossier, independent regulatory data, or an opinion from any Western regulatory authority.

On December 1, 2022 (Minutes ERT 21), the ERT committee voted by an overwhelming majority to initiate the process of bringing the new vaccine to Israel. According to the minutes, 14 of 15 committee members voted in favor of the recommendation, as did all six Ministry of Health representatives who participated in the vote. At that point, the principled decision had been made. The discussion shifted from whether to adopt the pathway to how to implement it. 

Immediately following the vote, the regulatory question shifted to implementation and to the procedural steps required to activate the pathway. In a committee discussion held on February 28, 2023, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis suggested that a formal emergency declaration might be necessary in order to enable the relevant authorization track, remarking that “perhaps if there are two clinical cases we will be able to persuade the minister to declare an emergency.” The exchange indicates that the declaration of emergency was discussed in direct connection with the procedural track it would enable.

Conflicts of Interest on the Committee: Advisers to the WHO Leading the Recommendation to Bring the Vaccine to Israel

During the months in which the committee’s secretary, Prof. Schulman, presented the pathway for bringing nOPV2 to Israel, the committee members were not presented with information about his conflicts of interest with the WHO and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. In practice, during that period, Schulman served as a technical consultant on the vaccine through McKing Consulting Corporation, a professional contractor working on projects of the WHO and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), which is centrally supported by the Gates Foundation.

He also received a support grant from the WHO, likewise for consulting related to nOPV2. Moreover, he received travel funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to participate in dedicated nOPV2 working meetings in London in February 2023; that is, precisely during the period relevant to the ERT committee’s deliberations on the vaccine. Added to this is co-authorship on an international scientific publication from June 2023 that was conducted with the support of the WHO, GPEI, and the manufacturer Bio Farma.

In other words, this was not a general affiliation or a distant professional past. It was a direct, built-in conflict of interest related to the specific vaccine under discussion and to its unusual approval pathway under EUL. Schulman declared these ties in official scientific publications, but they were not brought to the committee’s attention in real time, even as he was the one presenting the approval pathway and leading the professional discussion. When the Ministry of Health was asked to address the issue, both in the Freedom of Information process and in a formal request to the spokesperson, it responded categorically that no conflicts of interest existed in the committee. This response contradicts Schulman’s own public declarations.

Only about three months after the vote, during a further discussion held on February 28, 2023, Schulman asked that “someone replace me” in the continuation of the approvals process, so that he “won’t have a conflict of interest,” as though it were a minor technical matter rather than a substantive failure, and without addressing the fact that the principled decision had already been made on the basis of materials and a regulatory framework that he himself had helped advance internationally. Moreover, after this admission, Schulman’s conflicts of interest were not documented in the meeting minutes that were provided to us following the FOI litigation.

Schulman was not the only senior committee member with a conflict of interest involving the WHO. The committee chair, Prof. Manfred Green, recently acknowledged in a Knesset Health Committee discussion that his partner, Prof. Dorit Nitzan-Kluski, also serves on the polio committee. Indeed, Prof. Nitzan-Kaluski is listed as a member already in the original appointment letter, in March 2022. Yet only a month before that appointment, in February 2022, she formally completed her senior role as the WHO Regional Emergencies Director for Europe. Moreover, a few weeks later, with the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, she returned to intensive professional activity on behalf of the WHO as an Incident Manager in Ukraine, a role she performed in parallel with her membership in the committee.

This becomes all the more problematic when the committee chair presents the WHO’s position to members as an “ultimatum” that must be adopted, without full disclosure that his partner, serving alongside him, is a senior operational figure within that same organization.

This is not merely a matter of personal ethics. The committee secretary, who drafted, promoted, and led the presentation of the vaccine and the EUL pathway to Israel, was simultaneously active internationally in advancing them, while the committee chair adopted the same framework. The result was that Israel’s decision-making unfolded within the same professional network that promoted the vaccine and its approval pathway in the international arena. 

Under such circumstances, it is difficult to speak of independent national regulatory judgment when the same actors are involved in promoting the pathway both globally and within the Israeli deliberations.

“Who Will Blink First”

In stark contrast to the confidence with which the vaccine’s safety and manufacturing integrity were presented in the ERT committee, the minutes show that the Pharmaceutical Division, Israel’s competent regulatory authority for authorizing medicines and vaccines, expressed reservations, and even opposition, at an early stage.

This opposition was mentioned several times during the discussions, including the reasons raised by division staff: the absence of licensure by any Western country, the fact that the vaccine is manufactured in Indonesia, a country to which Israel’s Ministry of Health has no direct regulatory access, meaning it cannot independently examine manufacturing conditions at the plant, and reliance on an emergency mechanism that had not yet been completed.

In one discussion, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis describes the Pharmaceutical Division’s position unambiguously: “Our pharmacy division refuses at this stage to take a vaccine or to approve a vaccine coming from Indonesia with no Western regulatory process at all. That’s a very, very big obstacle…Right now our pharmacy division is saying: ‘We will not approve such a thing. It doesn’t look to us like it meets any standards that we can approve.’

Yet these reservations were not presented as a regulatory red line, but as a problem to be “solved” in order to continue advancing within the EUL pathway. The regulator’s opposition did not stop the process. It was framed as an operational obstacle.

This produced a reversal of roles: an advisory committee effectively shaped the regulatory pathway, while the body legally authorized to approve or reject vaccines was expected to adapt to a framework that had already been set, and at times to justify its own resistance.

Against this backdrop, the discussion focused on finding an external regulator that would provide legitimacy, first and foremost the UK regulator. The minutes repeatedly refer to Britain as the country that might approve the vaccine before Israel. For example, in one discussion (ERT 17), Prof. Ian Miskin, one of the committee members, states explicitly that “we probably shouldn’t be the first in the West to use nOPV2, ” and that while the United States likely would not use the vaccine, “the UK might.” In the February 28, 2023 discussion, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis framed the situation even more explicitly: “Maybe we’ll challenge them – every country that hears ‘Indonesia’ doesn’t want to be the first…so everyone is waiting to see who will blink first.”

This dynamic captures the position local decision-makers found themselves in within this mechanism. Although they did not have the basic data necessary for a proper regulatory authorization of a vaccine, they did not challenge the pathway itself. Instead, they searched for a Western country to provide the first stamp of approval. The international framework had already been accepted as the starting point. The remaining question was only which country would supply the legitimacy that would allow others to follow. In such a setting, the scope of criticism narrows. The focal point is no longer vaccine safety or manufacturing quality, but joining a pathway already defined, and the fear is not scientific error but deviating from the line.

This dynamic cannot be explained solely by institutional caution. Once the EUL framework was accepted as the operative reference point, deliberation shifted from independent evidentiary assessment to questions of timing and alignment. The regulatory threshold itself was no longer the central issue. What mattered was whether, and by whom, the pathway would first be validated in the West. The architecture of decision-making had already been set.

“We Got Nothing, Nothing, Nothing Except WHO Presentations”

About two months after the ERT committee had already voted and made a principled decision to advance the introduction of nOPV2 to Israel under the EUL mechanism, and after months of discussions in which the gap between the pathway mapped out in the committee and the regulator’s position only widened, Dr. Alroy-Preis asked to invite Dr. Ofra Axelrod, head of the Pharmaceutical Division, to explain her opposition.

In the subsequent discussion, when Dr. Axelrod did come to the committee and systematically presented the data and information available to the Pharmaceutical Division, it became clear that the gap was far larger than could be inferred from earlier discussions. What she laid out showed that this was not merely a discrete regulatory disagreement or a “difficulty” that could be bridged, but an absence of the basic regulatory data required to evaluate vaccine safety, manufacturing integrity, and the regulatory pathway itself.

At the outset, Axelrod clarified what constituted the division’s evidentiary base: “We, of course, got nothing, nothing, nothing except WHO presentations. On the basis of that, to approve something, that won’t pass.” In effect, she revealed that these presentations were the only materials presented to the committee and had served as the basis for the vote to begin the approval process for importing the vaccine into Israel.

Contrary to the impression created earlier, in which the vaccine was presented as being on an advanced pathway, Axelrod described a vaccine that was “still in a clinical trial…a vaccine at a very, very early stage…it doesn’t even have prequalification, which is really the most basic approval there is.” She also addressed the vaccine’s status under EUL and noted: “There was an initial recommendation in 2020, and since then no final decision has been made…”

Even the hope that a Western country would soon authorize the vaccine proved, according to her, unfounded. “Right now, because of the gaps and lack of information, the British do not intend to approve use of this vaccine in the UK. Even if it becomes truly essential, and maybe even a temporary approval, it’s very challenging. After that conversation we asked the British for materials. There was nothing; they did not pass anything on. In early February we approached the British again, and the answer was very evasive. The answer was: ‘We’ll try to create a direct connection for you with the company.’ Since then we haven’t heard anything, not from the British and not from the company. “

As for manufacturing itself, Axelrod described a plant not recognized by Western regulatory authorities, and a picture of inadequate regulatory oversight. “The plant is not recognized, it manufactures vaccines for the developing world, for WHO countries…the manufacturing company avoided direct contact with the MHRA, the UK regulator. They did not give them a dossier or any information they received directly from the company…eventually, the British managed to get the company’s agreement to conduct a GMP inspection. The British visited the company and found gaps. They did not specify what they were. And the company has not undergone any GMP inspection by an authority we recognize…”

Beyond the regulatory gaps, Axelrod’s comments also illuminate the lack of transparency in the committee’s work. She told the committee that a Freedom of Information request had already been filed with the Ministry concerning the vaccine discussions. “I have to share with you that we already received an FOI request about this vaccine. We haven’t approved anything yet, and already people are asking us: why and how and who and what.” The committee’s minutes were not published to the public in real time. They were provided only following an FOI request and prolonged litigation. The fact that the information was exposed only in this way makes clear that the discussion was not accompanied by proactive transparency from the Ministry.

A Test Case for a New Model

As serious as the Israeli case is, both in the conflicts of interest it exposes and in the attempt to promote authorization without basic regulatory data before the national regulator, the larger significance lies elsewhere. Israel was the first Western arena in which the EUL mechanism was put into practice. This is not merely a local event. It serves as a test case for a new model – a practical examination of the WHO’s ability to shape approval processes in a Western country without bearing direct regulatory responsibility.

Beyond the damage to sovereignty, the danger in this model is deeper. The WHO does not bear legal responsibility within states and is not subject to judicial or parliamentary oversight there. In a national regulatory system, a decision to authorize a vaccine is subject to a clear administrative law framework: documents can be demanded under freedom of information statutes, petitions can be filed in court, reasoning can be compelled, and decisions can be reviewed for reasonableness.

States that accept the EUL mechanism retain full legal and political responsibility for the decision, while key elements of its framework are shaped outside their systems. The national regulator will be required to defend in court a decision whose framework it did not set; the government will bear the public cost; and citizens will discover that the body that shaped the pathway is not subject to their courts and owes them no legal accountability.

A further concern is the lack of transparency and the state’s inability to independently assess the data presented to it. In recent years, the research literature has pointed to transparency gaps in the WHO’s decision-making mechanisms, especially in emergencies. Studies published, among others, in BMJ Global Health (2020), the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health (2025), and Public Health Ethics described partial publication of minutes, difficulty reconstructing decision rationales, and the scope of influence not matched by parallel oversight mechanisms. 

The Israeli case shows how such a gap translates at the national level: discussions not proactively published, near-exclusive reliance on materials originating from the organization itself, and progress along a regulatory pathway before the full data required for independent review had been provided.

In this case, the move was halted in Israel, but only after a principled decision had already been made and the pathway had already been mapped out, and only thanks to regulatory insistence on demanding data and holding to threshold standards, and civic insistence on exposing information that was not published.

Against this background, decisions by countries such as the United States to distance themselves from the World Health Organization can be understood in the context of broader debates over regulatory authority and accountability in global health governance. The Israeli case raises a more general question: to what extent can regulatory independence be maintained when key elements of the decision-making framework are shaped through external processes that precede national review? 

The case exposes a widening gap between formal national authority and the external frameworks that increasingly determine regulatory outcomes in advance.

The Ministry of Health was asked to respond to these findings but chose not to comment.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 18:40

Should Democrats Fear A Supreme Court October Surprise That Could Save The Senate For The GOP?

Zero Hedge -

Should Democrats Fear A Supreme Court October Surprise That Could Save The Senate For The GOP?

There has been a lot of speculation about potential Supreme Court vacancies this year, mostly centered on Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas. Even President Donald Trump seems anxious about the possibility. In a recent interview with Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo, Trump revealed that he has a shortlist of potential Supreme Court nominees ready in the event of a vacancy and signaled he’s prepared to fill multiple seats if the opportunity arises. 

"In theory, it's two - you just read the statistics - it could be two, could be three, could be one," Trump said. "I don't know. I'm prepared to do it. But when you mention Alito, he is a great justice."

However, for now, the door appears closed. Sources close to both Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas told CBS News that neither man plans to retire in 2026, effectively throwing cold water on the speculation that has been building for months within Republican circles.

But Senate Republicans aren't exactly ready to write it off yet. They're treating the possibility of a fall vacancy as hot enough to plan around, even while keeping their mouths carefully shut in public.

The calculus is straightforward. Republicans currently hold a 53-seat Senate majority, but party strategists privately acknowledge that margin is vulnerable. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted four Senate races — Ohio, North Carolina, Nebraska, and Georgia — toward Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump's job approval has slipped into the low 30s. Democrats have a credible path to flipping the upper chamber if they can make inroads in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, or Iowa.

What Senate Republicans are hoping for is a potential October surprise. 

GOP strategist and former Senate aide Brian Darling argues that a vacancy and confirmation battle hitting in October would "have the whole agenda change," pulling Senate races away from economic grievances and back toward the Court. It would "shift" the focus of contested races and "may motivate MAGA voters to get reengaged and show up to vote." As Darling put it, "An October surprise is when some issue comes up that people aren't expecting that completely changes the debate," adding that such a development "clearly is something that would be welcomed by the Trump administration going into the midterms."

It sounds like a risky strategy that could backfire, as such events could easily motivate both sides. However, Republicans have a recent data point to anchor that theory.

In 2018, Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation fight landed so close to Election Day that it likely helped Republicans flip a few Senate seats despite losing 42 House seats and majority control of the lower chamber. The Senate outcome diverged sharply from the national wave, and vulnerable Democrats in red-leaning states paid the price. Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana both held polling leads heading into the Kavanaugh vote. Both lost. McCaskill later acknowledged on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" that, before the confirmation battle, there had been “a double-digit difference in enthusiasm” favoring Democrats, but that Supreme Court fight changed the dynamics completely.

The 2016 Scalia precedent is also part of the institutional memory here. After Scalia died in February of that year, then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell held the seat open through the presidential election, effectively turning the race into a referendum on the Court's direction. Justice Neil Gorsuch was confirmed in April 2017. Republicans believe that the gambit helped deliver the White House.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) believes a Supreme Court vacancy “would be a galvanizing issue for Republicans,” but was careful to note that justices make their own decisions. "I don't give Supreme Court justices advice," Cornyn said, praising Alito's record by saying simply, "Alito's been great."

There certainly is reason for Republicans to be careful. Barack Obama infamously failed to convince Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg to retire while he was president. She stubbornly stayed on the court, despite her advanced age and poor health, and passed in 2020, giving a third Court pick.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) was equally careful about nudging Alito, 76, or Thomas, 77, about retiring. He said he has "seen the articles" speculating about Alito’s retirement and acknowledged that "the rumor started somewhere." On whether either justice might step down, Kennedy said it "depends on their health," then added, "I don't know where this rumor came from; it may well be true."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune pointed to Republicans' demonstrated ability to confirm quickly, referencing both 2018 and the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett in 2020 — completed less than two months after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, just before a presidential election.

"It seems like it could happen,” one senior Republican aide said. “We'll get somebody confirmed. The fight will be interesting."

The question isn't whether Republicans want a Supreme Court vacancy before November — it's whether they'll get one. And if they do, history suggests the political fallout could be severe for Democrats defending seats in territory that was never really theirs to begin with.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 18:05

'Spies Inside The Holy See': Report Reveals US Espionage Campaign Targeting Pope Leo

Zero Hedge -

'Spies Inside The Holy See': Report Reveals US Espionage Campaign Targeting Pope Leo

Via The Cradle

The administration of US President Donald Trump has been "spying" on Pope Leo XIV as part of a years-long intelligence campaign by Washington against the Vatican, US investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein said in a report released Friday. 

Klippenstein – an independent, Washington-based investigative journalist who formerly wrote for The Intercept – cited sources as saying that Trump's recent comments on the new Pope were taken by the intelligence community as "a directive to prioritize spying on the Vatican."

via Reuters

Trump had said earlier this month that Pope Leo was "terrible on foreign policy" and "weak on crime." According to Klippenstein’s sources, Washington has "for years" been spying on the Vatican. 

"The CIA has human spies working inside the Holy See bureaucracy. The NSA and CIA seek to intercept telecommunications, emails, and texts. The FBI investigates crimes committed against and by the Vatican. The State Department closely follows the ins and outs of Papal diplomacy and politics. All of these agencies liaise with the Vatican’s own foreign policy, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies," the report stated. 

Klippenstein pointed to a "longstanding – and quietly extensive – relationship between the US national security apparatus and the Vatican" involving diplomatic, law enforcement, and cybersecurity cooperation.

Much of it is "genuine" but also serves as a "convenient cover for collecting intelligence."

"The first Trump administration sought to beef up its coordination with Italian intelligence agencies and Vatican officials on things like cybersecurity, white collar crime, human trafficking, art theft, and other issues. One particular project was to help the Vatican actively thwart cyber intrusions into its networks. The FBI also regularly provides threat intelligence to the Pope during his travels," Klippenstein cited FBI documents as saying. 

"The State Department, meanwhile, maintains a daily Vatican-centric news digest circulated to diplomats worldwide… The department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research has analysts dedicated to producing classified assessments on Vatican affairs," he added, referring to other documents he obtained.

"Even the US military has a Vatican-specific language code on its books as a distinct linguistic capability. ‘QLE’ designates Ecclesiastical Latin – the Vatican’s preferred liturgical register – as distinct from classical Latin."

The report follows recent tensions between Trump and the Holy See. Trump said earlier this month:

"Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the US … And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the US."

Prior to that, the pope had condemned what he called the “delusion of omnipotence,” fueling the US-Israeli war against Iran. 

“Enough of the idolatry of self and money! Enough of the display of power! Enough of war!” he said. The pope also recently said that a “handful of tyrants” were ruling the world, before later clarifying that his comments were not meant as a jab at Trump and were written before the US president criticized him. 

Additionally, the papacy referred to Trump’s threat to wipe out the Iranian civilization as unacceptable.

Pope Leo’s remarks came weeks after dozens of US lawmakers demanded a probe due to hundreds of complaints from service members saying that military commanders portrayed the war on Iran as “divinely ordained” and linked to biblical prophecy, including claims that Trump had been “anointed by Jesus.”

Well over 2,000 people have been killed by the US-Israeli war on Iran, and the country’s infrastructure has been ravaged. 

Only about one-third of the infrastructure destroyed in Iran’s capital during the US-Israeli war was military-linked, Bloomberg revealed on 21 April in an analysis of the damage caused by Washington and Tel Aviv.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 17:30

18 Shocking Facts That Prove The US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Realize

Zero Hedge -

18 Shocking Facts That Prove The US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Realize

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The economy has been the number one issue for U.S. voters for several years in a row, and it isn’t because things are good.

Consumer confidence is at an all-time low, inflation is starting to accelerate once again, mass layoffs are being conducted all over the nation, and delinquencies and foreclosures are soaring. Nobody can dispute any of the facts that I am about to share with you. We have an enormous economic mess on our hands, and now the crisis in the Middle East threatens to plunge the entire global economic system into chaos in the months ahead. In other words, conditions are not good now and the outlook for the future is not promising at all.

The following are 18 shocking facts that prove that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than most people realize…

#1 Consumer confidence in the United States has fallen to an all-time record low

Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices and the broader impact of the Iran war, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

The university’s headline index of consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6, down 10.7% from the March survey to its lowest on record. Current conditions and expectations indexes also saw double-digit monthly declines.

#2 Student loan delinquencies have exploded to a level that we have never seen before

Student loan delinquency has climbed to roughly 25 percent of borrowers with payments due during the first year of the current Trump administration, according to new analysis.

Researchers from The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers said the sharp rise in missed payments, nearly triple the pre-coronavirus pandemic rate, has pushed millions into default risk and lowered credit scores, warning of broader financial fallout for households and colleges facing higher nonpayment rates.

#3 The monthly cost of owning a home has risen to absurd heights

All in, the median monthly housing payment for an owner — including mortgage principal and interest, taxes, homeowners insurance, and estimated maintenance expenses — has ballooned to more than $2,800, a staggering 72% jump from $1,635 six years earlier.

#4 Foreclosure filings were way up in 2025, and so far in 2026 we are 26 percent above last year’s pace…

A fresh wave of foreclosures is sweeping across the United States, with more than 118,000 homes caught up in the crisis in just the first three months of 2026.

It is a grim omen – with echoes of the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

New Attom data shows 118,727 properties were hit with a foreclosure filing in the first quarter – up 26 percent on the same period last year.

#5 The number of Americans that cannot pay their credit card bills in full each month has reached another record high

More than 111 million people could not pay off their monthly credit-card bills in full at the end of last year, marking a new record, according to new estimates from consumer advocates. That’s roughly 2 million more people unable to pay in full compared to the end of 2024, they noted.

These card holders now owe banks more than $1 trillion — and most are inching closer to maxing out their credit lines, according to researchers at the Century Foundation, a progressive think tank, and Protect Borrowers, a nonprofit group that advocates for borrowers.

#6 As the cost of living soars, people are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at a record rate in a desperate attempt to make ends meet…

More Americans are digging into their retirement savings because of financial emergencies.

Last year, a record 6% of workers in 401(k) plans administered by Vanguard Group took a hardship withdrawal. That is up from 4.8% in 2024 and a prepandemic average of about 2%, according to Vanguard.

#7 Food prices continue to escalate, and the price of coffee has more than doubled since 2019…

A 16-item basket of groceries made up of staples like eggs, bread, and meat — no truffle cheese in our cart — rang in nearly 43% higher in March compared to the same month in 2019.

A few key categories are behind the rise: Coffee prices have more than doubled since the pandemic, while beef prices have soared more recently.

#8 For the first time ever, the price of a pound of ground beef is now higher than the federal minimum wage in many parts of the country…

The cost of a pound of ground beef has hit a major threshold. Depending on where you shop, the grocery staple likely costs more than the federal minimum wage.

Money analyzed ground beef prices at seven of the most popular grocery chains across the U.S., finding that 1 pound of the typical 20% fat ground beef costs between $6.49 and $8.96. Organic, grass-fed and leaner varieties tend to cost much more.

On the other hand, the federal minimum wage sits at $7.25 per hour.

#9 The Federal Reserve is telling us that 42.5 percent of recent college graduates were underemployed at the end of 2025…

Historically, college graduates have tended to find jobs faster and experience lower unemployment than workers without a degree. But recent data suggests it’s now harder to find a job that fits your skill set once you graduate.

According to the Federal Reserve of New York, 42.5% of recent college graduates (aged 22 to 27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher) are underemployed as of December 2025 — the highest rate since October 2020. Underemployment refers to working in a role that underutilizes your skills, usually at a lower wage or in a part-time position.

#10 We continue to see retailers close locations all over the nation at a staggering rate. For example, Grocery Outlet has announced that they will be permanently closing 36 stores

Grocery Outlet – the California-based retailer famous for selling products at steep discounts – says it will close 36 stores nationwide as part of a sweeping restructuring plan designed to improve profitability.

The company revealed the move while reporting its latest financial results, saying it had conducted a ‘strategic, financial and operational analysis’ of its entire store network.

#11 Not to be outdone, Papa John’s has announced that they will be closing approximately 300 restaurants

Pizza chain Papa John’s said it plans to close hundreds of underperforming restaurants in North America by the end of next year.

“We have identified approximately 300 underperforming restaurants across North America that are not meeting brand expectations or lack a clear path to sustainable financial improvement, as well as locations where we can effectively transfer sales to a nearby restaurant,” Papa John’s Chief Financial Officer Ravi Thanawala said last week during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

#12 One of our “too big to fail” banks has decided that now is the time to cut about 2,500 jobs

Morgan Stanley is slashing about 3% of its global workforce — roughly 2,500 jobs — across its key divisions, as the Wall Street giant realigns priorities amid a banner year for profits, sources familiar with the matter have told The Post.

The cuts hit the Ted Pick-led lender’s investment banking, trading, and wealth management units, the people close to the situation said.

#13 EBay will be conducting yet another round of layoffs. This time around approximately 800 workers will get the axe…

EBay said Thursday it is cutting about 800 roles, or 6% of its workforce, in the latest round of layoffs at the e-commerce company.

“We are taking steps to reinvest across our business and align our structure with our strategic priorities, which will affect certain roles across our workforce,” an eBay spokesperson said in a statement. “We are grateful for the contributions of the employees impacted and are committed to supporting them with care and respect.”

#14 At one time Wendy’s was doing great, but in 2026 it will be permanently shuttering hundreds of locations

Fast-food chain Wendy’s will shutter 5% to 6% of its stores nationwide in the first half of 2026 as part of an ongoing downsizing plan.

Interim CEO Ken Cook first told investors in a Nov. 7 quarterly earnings call that the company would be closing a “mid single-digit percentage” of its nearly 6,000 locations nationwide.

#15 Meta, the parent company of Facebook, apparently intends to let nearly 8,000 employees go in the very near future…

Meta is preparing to cut thousands of jobs as early as next month, with deeper layoffs expected later this year, according to a report.

The tech giant intends to slash roughly 10% of its global workforce — or nearly 8,000 employees — in an initial round of cuts on May 20, sources told Reuters.

The company is also planning additional layoffs in the second half of the year, though details including timing and scope remain unclear, the outlet reported.

#16 From coast to coast, thousands of supply chain workers have been told to hit the bricks in recent weeks…

A wave of layoffs across U.S. supply chains — from EV battery plants and auto parts factories to warehouses and rail terminals — has affected nearly 4,000 workers in recent weeks, according to company announcements and WARN filings across multiple states.

Recent WARN filings and company announcements show job cuts across at least a dozen companies in states including California, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alabama.

The largest layoffs in the recent wave are coming from the automotive and industrial supply chain. SK Battery America said it laid off 958 workers — about 37% of its workforce — at its electric vehicle battery plant in Commerce, Georgia, citing shifting EV demand as automakers reassess production plans.

#17 According to Newsweek, the following list of companies have all announced layoffs during the month of April…

  • Blue Shield of California
  • Zenith Logistics
  • Perdue Foods
  • ERN Services
  • Boston Electrometallurgical Corporation
  • First Brands Group
  • GEODIS
  • MicroVision
  • IPIC Theaters
  • Goulet Trucking
  • CJ Logistics
  • L3Harris
  • Supernal
  • Heritage Bank of Commerce
  • Angel City Brewery
  • VCA Bay Area Veterinary Specialists
  • Monroe Operations
  • Meteor Creative
  • Viskon-Aire Corporation
  • C3.ai
  • Safari West
  • Main Street Sports Group Cincinnati
  • Raley’s
  • Koppers
  • Wells Fargo
  • Lucid Group
  • Hornblower Cruises and Events
  • Charles River Laboratories
  • Wescom Financial
  • Bluum USA
  • CHS Northwest
  • Catalent
  • Liberty Dental Plan
  • GXO Logistics

#18 The total unfunded obligations of the U.S. government have now reached a staggering total of 130.12 trillion dollars

On March 17, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury quietly released the federal government’s fiscal year 2025 financial report. Buried in its tables is a number that should dominate our national conversation – but doesn’t: Total federal obligations now stand at $130.12 trillion.

That figure is not a rounding error or a political talking point. It is derived from the government’s own accounting – combining the reported negative net position (driven largely by bonded debt) with the present value of projected shortfalls in major social insurance programs. Yet public debate continues to revolve almost exclusively around the much smaller figure of Treasury securities outstanding.

There is no way that anyone can spin the facts that I have just shared with you to make them look good.

So if conditions are already this bad, what will things be like six months from now if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed?

We really are in unprecedented territory, and the truth is the economic conditions could easily get a lot worse during the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 16:20

Crypto Industry On Track To Surpass 2024 Spending On Texas Midterms

Zero Hedge -

Crypto Industry On Track To Surpass 2024 Spending On Texas Midterms

Crypto super PACs scored big in the 2024 midterms, backing 53 of 58 candidates who won seats in Congress nationwide - including four from Texas.

(Azul Sordo/The Texas Tribune, Azul Sordo/The Texas Tribune)

This cycle, the same groups are pouring money into a fresh slate of Texas contenders and are on track to exceed their 2024 spending levels in the state, according to KSAT

Two major PACs - Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress - have already committed more than $2.5 million to Texas candidates this year, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings. Both are tied to Fairshake, the cryptocurrency industry’s massive super PAC war chest, which started 2026 with $193 million in cash on hand.

When combined with other crypto-aligned super PACs, the industry has spent at least $28 million on congressional races nationwide so far this cycle. At the same point in the 2024 cycle, those groups had spent roughly $22 million.

In 2024, Protect Progress was the primary crypto spender in Texas, dropping nearly $1 million to help Rep. Julie Johnson win her Democratic primary and general election. Overall, Protect Progress and three other crypto super PACs - including Defend American Jobs and Fairshake - spent a combined $2.5 million on Texas candidates such as Sen. Ted Cruz, Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and Rep. Craig Goldman.

Since the last midterms, Congress has passed major cryptocurrency legislation, including the GENIUS Act in July 2025 - the first federal regulatory framework for the industry, which passed with bipartisan support and was backed by crypto groups. Yet the industry’s sharp increase in political spending suggests it remains concerned about potential new restrictions.

Bills such as the Clarity Act, which critics argue would weaken oversight of crypto markets, are still under negotiation and could further shape policy.

"The fear is there’s going to be significant regulation on the part of Congress, and so [crypto PACs] want to find people who would be willing to at least listen to them," said Daron Shaw, a government professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

In Texas, nearly two-thirds of the crypto spending has gone to a single candidate: Rep. Christian Menefee. Fairshake’s progressive arm, Protect Progress, has spent more than $1.5 million to help Menefee defeat Rep. Al Green in a runoff for a Houston-area seat that covers much of Harris County. Green was drawn out of his original district in redistricting, while Menefee won a special election in January.

Green, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, has opposed key pro-crypto bills, including the GENIUS Act and the Clarity Act. He has also publicly criticized cryptocurrency’s potential to undermine U.S. sanctions and the environmental impact of crypto mining.

Menefee, by contrast, has embraced blockchain technology on his campaign site, saying it can "increase trust, transparency and efficiency" when paired with strong consumer protections. The industry group Stand with Crypto gave Menefee an "A" rating and Green an "F."

"When you get an ‘F’ that means they don’t like you," Green said on the House floor March 19. "When they don’t like you, they’ll do whatever they can … to expel you, to evict you."

Menefee, who holds a significant financial edge, told reporters he recognizes the widespread adoption of crypto and wants smart regulation to curb scams.

"Over 70 million Americans have crypto right now, and a lot of them are young, a lot of them live in Texas-18, a lot of them are Black and brown folks," Menefee said. "My job is to protect them, and you can’t protect people when you refuse to engage on an issue."

The race has also highlighted a generational split: Green is 78, while Menefee is 37. Menefee argues his generation is more open to emerging technologies like crypto and that lawmakers shouldn’t "bury [their] heads in the sand." Green did not respond to a request for comment.

On the Republican side, Defend American Jobs has spent roughly $771,000 supporting Jessica Steinmann, who is running to succeed retiring Rep. Morgan Luttrell in Magnolia. Steinmann, a former Trump administration official and aide to Sen. Ted Cruz, describes herself as a "strong supporter of digital assets, blockchain technology and financial innovation" that promotes economic freedom without stifling growth.

The same PAC has spent about $92,000 backing Chris Gober, a conservative attorney seeking to replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul in Central Texas. Gober’s campaign emphasizes boosting technology investment and turning Austin and the Brazos Valley into "America’s center for innovation," though he does not highlight crypto specifically.

Defend American Jobs also spent approximately $141,000 on Trever Nehls - twin brother of Rep. Troy Nehls - who won the primary in a solidly Republican district outside Houston after his brother opted not to seek reelection.

Michael Beckel of Issue One, a nonpartisan group focused on reducing money in politics, noted that cryptocurrency was once a fringe sector but has rapidly gained influence.

"The cryptocurrency industry wants people in Washington and in state houses to be able to pick up their phone calls," he said.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said crypto super PACs were unusually effective in 2024 and appear set to repeat that success.

"Crypto was successful last cycle in being the only player on the block, and having a chilling effect on political leaders being willing to put any rules or guardrails," Green said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 15:45

Federal Appeals Court Allows Texas To Enforce State Immigration Law

Zero Hedge -

Federal Appeals Court Allows Texas To Enforce State Immigration Law

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A divided federal appeals court on April 24 allowed Texas to enforce a state law that permits the arrest and prosecution of individuals thought to have unlawfully crossed the U.S.-Mexico border.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit voted 10–7 to undo a 2024 injunction that had prevented enforcement of the law known as Senate Bill 4. Initially, the former Biden administration had challenged the statute, but the second Trump administration dropped the challenge in March 2025.

SB 4, which Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, signed in December 2023, would make it a state-level crime to illegally enter or re-enter Texas from a foreign country, give state judges authority to order that violators leave the United States, and allow prison sentences ⁠of up to 20 years for those refusing to comply.

The Fifth Circuit did not address the merits of the case because it found that the groups challenging the law—Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center and American Gateways—lacked legal standing to do so.

Standing refers to the right of someone to sue in court. The parties must demonstrate a strong enough connection to the controversy before the court to justify their participation in a lawsuit.

The groups had argued that SB 4 was preempted—or superseded—by the federal Immigration and Nationality Act.

“This case concerns whether the State of Texas, exercising its historic, sovereign police powers, can legislatively protect its citizens from a surge of illegal aliens in response to an unprecedented border crisis and a declared invasion,” Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith wrote for the majority.

“The [federal] district court judge and a divided panel held that it cannot. Because the Plaintiffs that are challenging the new statute lack standing, we vacate the [district court’s] preliminary injunction without addressing the merits of the preemption claim.”

The majority said SB 4 was enacted to respond to “widespread, illegal, disruptive immigration into the State,” including “more than 6 million illegal aliens, from over 100 countries,” including 100,000 unaccompanied minors, about 2,000 gang members, and 336 persons on the terrorist watchlist, who streamed across Texas’s international border from 2021 to 2023.

Circuit Judge Priscilla Richman filed a dissenting opinion, disagreeing with the majority’s decision to deny standing.

Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center, at least, would have standing to seek an injunction because if the preempted state law were to take effect, it would have to use its resources to represent clients in the state immigration system, she said.

Richman said she would have addressed the merits and upheld the district court’s injunction against the law.

“Federal laws on the books permit Texas to assist the federal government in apprehending illegal immigrants if the federal government so requests. But Texas cannot enact its own immigration regime,” she said.

A three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit upheld the district court’s February 2024 injunction in July 2025, holding that SB 4 would have interfered with the federal government’s efforts to enforce the nation’s immigration laws.

Along the way, in March 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court briefly permitted the statute to take effect. Not long after, the Fifth Circuit panel temporarily blocked the law pending further review.

Later, the full Fifth Circuit agreed with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s request to reconsider the case.

Paxton hailed the new ruling.

“My office has secured yet another major win for Texas by defending SB 4 before the Fifth Circuit,” Paxton said in a statement.

“Texas’s right to arrest illegals, protect our citizens, and enforce immigration law is fundamental. This is a major victory for public safety and law and order,” he said.

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center and American Gateways. No replies were received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 15:10

DOJ Re-Adopts Executions By Firing Squad As It Strengthens Federal Death Penalty

Zero Hedge -

DOJ Re-Adopts Executions By Firing Squad As It Strengthens Federal Death Penalty

The Department of Justice on Friday directed the Bureau of Prisons to expand death penalty protocols to include pentobarbital injections and firing squads as part of broader actions to strengthen the federal death penalty, Fox News reports

"Today, the Department of Justice acted to restore its solemn duty to seek, obtain, and implement lawful capital sentences — clearing the way for the Department to carry out executions once death-sentenced inmates have exhausted their appeals," the DOJ memo obtained by Fox News read.

"Among the actions taken are readopting the lethal injection protocol utilized during the first Trump Administration, expanding the protocol to include additional manners of execution such as the firing squad, and streamlining internal processes to expedite death penalty cases," the memo read.

A chair sits in the execution chamber at the Utah State Prison on June 18, 2010, after Ronnie Lee Gardner was executed by firing squad in Draper, Utah. (Trent Nelson / The Salt Lake Tribune via AP

In addition to recommending the new methods of execution, the DOJ is also directing BOP to look into expanding the federal death row and constructing additional execution facilities.

Additionally, the DOJ also plans to consider a rule that will help states to streamline federal habeas review of capital cases which, if adopted, the DOJ says will reduce the period between conviction and execution in state capital cases by years. Death row inmates can often wait decades after receiving their sentence to face execution.

On President Trump's first day of his second term, he issued an executive order "to ensure that the laws that authorize capital punishment are respected and faithfully implemented." 

In 2025 the Trump administration rescinded a moratorium on federal executions instituted by former President Joe Biden's DOJ. Biden also commuted the sentences of 37 of the 40 death row inmates in December 2024, a move widely condemned by Republicans as dangerous but praised by Democrats as an act of justice and mercy.

The DOJ's Friday memo slammed the Biden administration. "The prior administration failed in its duty to protect the American people by refusing to pursue and carry out the ultimate punishment against the most dangerous criminals, including terrorists, child murderers, and cop killers," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche wrote.

The federal government has never executed a person by firing squad, though some states still use firing squads to execute death row inmates at the state level. South Carolina carried out three firing squad executions in 2025. 

Pentobarbital is a central nervous system suppressant that many states use as a fallback to the standard three-drug cocktail for lethal injections. The Biden administration barred its use, arguing that it caused "unnecessary pain and suffering." The DOJ, however, claimed its use is in line with the 8th amendment, which states that cruel and unusual punishment is unconstitutional. 

"These steps are critical to deterring the most barbaric crimes, delivering justice for victims, and providing long-overdue closure to surviving loved ones," the DOJ memo read. 

 

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/25/2026 - 14:35

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