US Allows Venezuela To Fund Maduro's Defense After Court Challenge

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The United States will ease sanctions on Venezuela to allow its regime to pay legal fees for former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. drug trafficking case, according to a court filing in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

The April 24 filing states that the U.S. Treasury Department authorized an exception to existing sanctions, permitting funds to be used for Maduro’s legal defense.

Maduro is awaiting trial on federal charges, including those related to narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.

Attorney Barry Pollack, on behalf of Maduro, said in court documents filed in February that Venezuela, under its laws, had an obligation to pay Maduro’s legal expenses. Pollack said Maduro lacked his own funds to pay for legal counsel and “is being deprived of his constitutional right to counsel of his choice.”

“Mr. Maduro, as Venezuela’s head of state, has both a right and an expectation to have legal fees associated with these charges funded by the government of Venezuela,” the February court filing stated.

If declined, the cost of Maduro’s defense would be shifted from Venezuela to U.S. taxpayers even though Venezuela was willing and obligated to pay for it, Pollack stated in his brief.

“After invading another country and forcibly bringing its sovereign head of state to the United States, the government of the United States is now actively preventing him from retaining counsel of his choice and receiving a fair defense in this Court, in violation of his Sixth Amendment and Due Process rights,” the February filing stated.

Pollack had moved to get the indictment dismissed.

The United States captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a Jan. 3 raid. U.S. President Donald Trump posted a photo to social media showing Maduro in custody while blindfolded and handcuffed aboard the U.S. Navy ship USS Iwo Jima.

According to the February filing, Maduro was being held in isolation at the Metropolitan Detention Center in the Brooklyn borough of New York City pending trial on charges that “relate to alleged conduct that occurred while he was the head of state of a sovereign nation.”

The U.S. Department of State said Maduro led the Cartel of the Suns, a drug-trafficking organization that was made up of high-ranking Venezuelan officials.

In November 2025, the State Department declared Venezuela’s Cartel of the Suns as a terror organization.

Maduro took over leadership of Venezuela in 2013 and became increasingly politically hostile toward the United States as the years progressed, according to the U.S. War Department.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 14:45

"Unprecedented": Travel Prices Expected To Soar To And From World Cup Matches This Summer

Traveling to matches during the 2026 FIFA World Cup may prove to be one of the biggest hurdles for fans, with transportation costs and logistics shaping up to be a major concern across U.S. host cities, according to Bloomberg.

Prices for getting to stadiums are expected to spike due to high demand, limited parking, and reliance on rideshare services, where surge pricing could make even short trips expensive. 

Costs for simply getting to and from matches could vary widely depending on the city and mode of travel. Rideshare prices are expected to surge during peak game times, potentially reaching hundreds of dollars for relatively short distances, while limited stadium parking could also carry premium rates or require advance reservations.

In some regions, special event transit fares may climb significantly higher than normal daily prices, with round-trip tickets potentially reaching well over $100 for high-demand routes. For those seeking convenience, private shuttles and chartered services will likely come at a steep markup, and luxury options like helicopter transfers—already being advertised for tens of thousands of dollars—highlight just how expensive last-mile transportation could become during the tournament.

Chopper rides could wind up "costing as much as $30,000 for a group of eight passengers." the report notes.

Bloomberg writes that public transit agencies are preparing for a massive influx of riders, but upgrades and expanded service come with significant costs. In some areas, fares are expected to rise sharply, and not all stadiums will be easily accessible by train or bus. Officials are working to expand capacity, but many systems are still recovering from pandemic-era budget shortfalls, making it difficult to scale up quickly.

At the same time, tensions are growing over who should pay for these improvements. State and local leaders argue that hosting the tournament should not burden everyday commuters with higher costs.

New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill emphasized this stance, saying, “We are committed to ensuring costs are shared fairly,” and adding, “We will not be subsidizing World Cup ticket holders on the backs of New Jerseyans who rely on NJ Transit every day.” With only limited federal funding available, cities are under pressure to find solutions before millions of visitors arrive.

FIFA says that host cities are expected to expand transit services, manage crowds, and cover security-related logistics, all of which come with significant expenses. Some state leaders, including New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill, have argued that FIFA should help cover those costs rather than shifting the burden onto taxpayers or everyday commuters. FIFA, however, maintains that its agreements with host cities already allow agencies to charge riders enough to cover expenses, marking a shift from earlier arrangements that required free public transportation for ticket holders.

FIFA officials pushed back strongly on the idea of contributing additional funds, signaling tension as planning ramps up. The organization said it was “quite surprised” by calls to share transportation costs and defended its existing agreements with host cities.

“To arbitrarily set elevated prices and demand FIFA absorb these costs is unprecedented,” said Heimo Schirgi. “No other global event, concert or major sporting promoter has faced such a demand.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 14:25

Micro-Cap Oil Stock Soars On Helium Offtake Deal As Gulf Shock Spurs Hunt For Reliable Supplies

The Hormuz chokepoint, with the U.S.-Iran conflict about to enter its third month, remains closed, and global energy flows are being rewired. One industrial gas we've identified as facing supply disruption risks is helium, which threatens to upend end markets ranging from semiconductor production to medical imaging.

Earlier this month, we published a note titled "Wyoming's Helium Empire Ascends As Qatar Gas Goes Flat." The note focused on how ExxonMobil stands out as a major beneficiary of the helium disruption in the Gulf region.

We previously cited UBS analyst Manav Gupta, who noted:

XOM's LaBarge facility in Wyoming, provides 20% of the world's supply, which has not been impacted by recent events in the Middle East. With an estimated eight decades worth of helium left to produce there, LaBarge is poised to play a significant role through the end of this century.

That leaves the market searching for alternative helium suppliers that could become net beneficiaries of the Gulf-related supply shock. 

One potential beneficiary is U.S. Energy Corp., which announced Monday that it has signed a five-year helium offtake agreement with an unnamed investment-grade global industrial gas company, giving the company its first contracted revenue stream tied to its Big Sky Carbon Hub in Montana.

The deal covers 100% of Phase 1 helium production, up to 1.2 million cubic feet per month, or 14.4 million cubic feet annually, under a take-or-pay structure. Phase 1 commercial operations remain targeted for early next year.

"The execution of this agreement with an investment-grade industrial gas company with global distribution infrastructure represents a defining milestone for U.S. Energy and validates years of development work at Big Sky," USEG CEO Ryan Smith wrote in a press release.

Smith noted, "This contract establishes long-term, contracted helium revenues and meaningfully de-risks Phase 1 commercial operations at Big Sky. It also reflects the strength we're seeing in the helium market today, where constrained global supply and increasing demand for reliable volumes are supporting a step up in long-term pricing."

He said under the agreement, helium pricing is fixed at $285 per MCF on a plant-gate basis, with no deductions, meaning the buyer assumes transportation, processing, and downstream costs.

Smith added that this agreement reduces risk for Big Sky's Phase 1 development by locking in long-term cash flow with a creditworthy counterparty.

USEG shares surged 35% by late morning in the US cash session.

USEG appears to be positioning itself as a major domestic helium supplier - not quite as big as XOM's LaBarge - but large enough to be noticed by the market, at a time when Gulf-related disruptions are exposing fragile energy supply chains worldwide.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 13:45

Kalshi, Polymarket Among 27 Prediction Platforms Banned In Brazil

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-owned news outlet Agência Brasil. Authorities claimed that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and therefore operate illegally.

“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.

The crackdown follows Resolution 5.298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on Friday, which takes effect in early May and sharply limits what prediction market platforms can offer. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments.

Only contracts linked to economic indicators, such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices, will remain allowed and fall under financial market oversight.

Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk

Durigan claimed that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.

The blocked platforms include a mix of international and Brazil-focused services, with major names including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (via its forecasting feature) and Fanatics Markets.

Banned prediction markets in Brazil. Source: Agência Brasil

Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, alongside several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.

More countries ban prediction markets

A growing number of jurisdictions have moved to ban prediction markets, often folding them into gambling or financial regulations. Several European nations, including France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have blocked or penalized platforms operating without authorization.

In the United States, the situation is more fragmented, with an ongoing tug-of-war between federal regulators and individual states over prediction markets.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 13:25

5Y Auction Tails Despite Jump In Foreign Demand, Yields Hit Session High

After a mediocre 2Y auction to start the week's coupon issuance this morning, moments ago the Treasury sold 5Y notes in another average auction.

The sale of $70BN in 5 Year paper stopped at a high yield of 3.955%, down fractionally from 3.980% last month, and tailing the When Issued 3.950% by 0.5bps. This was an improvement from last month's 1.4bps tail, but more concerningly this was the 11th tail in a row for 5Y issues.

The bid to cover was also on the muted side, at 2.330, up from 2.287, it was below the six-auction average of 2.348. 

The internals improved notably, however, with Indirects awarded 72.3%, above last month's 61.9% and also well above the recent average of 62.1%. In fact this was the highest award for foreign buyers since May 2025. And with Directs dropping to 15.03%, Dealers were left with just 12.7%, the lowest since January.

Overall, this was a stronger auction than this morning's 2Y sale thanks to the surge in foreign buyers, which probably offset concerns about the 11th tail in a row. Even so, 10Y yields have pushed to session highs, rising above 4.34% although that's due to the continued rise in oil which remains the only thing that the bond market is focused on for now.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 13:18

Supreme Court To Review Geofencing In Pivotal Case For Privacy Rights

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court on April 27 will hear oral arguments in a case with major implications for privacy rights—and how law enforcement uses Americans’ cell phone data while investigating crimes.

The case, Chatrie v. United States, centers on law enforcement’s use of “geofencing warrants”—judge-authorized requests for cell phone location data near the scene of a crime.

Okello Chatrie told the Supreme Court that the government’s use of these warrants, which resulted in a criminal conviction over his robbing a bank while his smart phone was on his person, violated his Fourth Amendment rights. The government, meanwhile, has argued that such data is not protected when provided voluntarily to a “third party” like Google.

The court said it would focus on the circumstances of Chatrie’s case rather than the constitutionality of geofencing more generally. However, experts say that the Supreme Court’s decision will reverberate through future cases concerning privacy in the digital age.

Dr. David Super, a professor of law at the Georgetown University Law Center, described the case to The Epoch Times as “once-in-a-generation,” whatever the outcome.

Chatrie’s Warrant

In 2019, law enforcement received a geofence warrant from a state court seeking anonymized location data for devices within 150 meters (about 500 feet) of the bank robbery. In this form, the data couldn’t be used to identify specific cellphone users.

After Google complied with the first request, law enforcement then sought location data for devices over a longer, two-hour period, without seeking an additional court warrant. Google again provided the information.

Then—still without seeking a warrant—investigators asked Google for “de-anonymized subscriber information for three devices,” and Google complied.

One of those devices belonged to Chatrie, and the information provided the basis for Chatrie’s eventual conviction for armed robbery.

Though Chatrie confessed, his lawyers argue that the geofencing evidence should be tossed because the warrant deprived him of his Fourth Amendment rights, which guarantees that “the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause.”

Chatrie’s lawyers argued that the geofence warrant allowed investigators to gather the location history of people who were near the scene of the crime even though there was no other probable cause.

Super told The Epoch Times that geofencing was “pivotal” to the case against Chatrie. “The question in Chatrie is whether something as dramatic as a geofencing search is limited by the Fourth Amendment and requires the government to show specific needs with a proper basis,” he said.

Digital Privacy

To access certain services on their phones, cell phones must constantly transmit their exact location to service providers. Several services store this data.

Through the use of a so-called “geofence warrant,” law enforcement can request location data on every person who was present at a specific location over a certain period of time.

In recent years, such information has increasingly become more and more sought out by law enforcement agencies to assist in investigating crimes.

In the case at hand, a geofencing warrant was issued against Google. However, such warrants have also been served on Apple, Lyft, Snapchat, and Uber, according to a filing from Chatrie.

“The question is whether the Fourth Amendment will be adapted to cover these new technologies” or not, Super said.

“We’re not talking about whether this particular individual should be released or not, right?” Nathan Moieker, a senior attorney covering the case for the American Center on Law and Justice, told The Epoch Times. “Rather, we’re talking about ... the fundamental principles at stake here.”

The Justice Department told the court that a warrant was unnecessary for obtaining geofencing data.

“The government in this case did not conduct a ‘search’ within the meaning of the Fourth Amendment,” it said in a filing. “Individuals generally have no reasonable expectation of privacy in information disclosed to a third party and then conveyed by the third party to the government.”

In another filing, the DOJ argued that restricting geofencing warrants could “render it seemingly impossible for judges to authorize the acquisition of valuable evidence” in cases like Chatrie’s and would completely foreclose the use of a valuable tool to catch modern-day criminals.

Big Tech Data

According to some previous court rulings in Chatrie and related cases, the data collected and held by Big Tech firms like Google, Apple, Meta, and others is considered “third-party” data.

Third-party data, the Supreme Court has said, is exempt from normal rules governing evidentiary warrants.

Established in the 1976 Supreme Court case United States v. Miller, the so-called “third-party doctrine” allows the government to gather certain kinds of information shared by individuals with third parties, without a warrant.

Chatrie’s attorneys have argued that the third-party doctrine shouldn’t apply in the case.

Historically, the doctrine has allowed law enforcement to request information from third parties like bank records.

But Chatrie’s attorneys—and others opposing the state’s position—have argued that the scope of Google location data is an account more akin to a “digital diary.”

They also raised doubts about the government’s claim that Chatrie voluntarily opted into sharing his location data. They cited opaque and complex terms of service and pop-ups during phone setup.

Big tech companies—Microsoft, X, and Google—backed some of Chatrie’s arguments. In an amicus brief, Google told the Supreme Court that geofence searches were overbroad and that the third-party doctrine shouldn’t apply to tech companies. The company long ago stopped recording the kind of location data that contributed to Chatrie’s arrest.

Chatrie’s allies also point to a 2018 Supreme Court decision known as Carpenter v. United States. In that case, a majority of the Supreme Court wrestled with the third-party doctrine and cell phone location data. It said the FBI had invaded a man’s reasonable expectation of privacy.

“Cell phone location information is not truly ‘shared’ as one normally understands the term,” Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said.

He described cell phones and their services as pervasive. “Apart from disconnecting the phone from the network, there is no way to avoid leaving behind a trail of location data,” he said.

Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, who are also still on the court, joined that decision. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, and Neil Gorsuch were among those who dissented.

“By obtaining the cell-site records of MetroPCS and Sprint, the Government did not search Carpenter’s property,” Thomas said. “He did not create the records, he does not maintain them, he cannot control them, and he cannot destroy them.”

Potential Decision

Experts who spoke to The Epoch Times said that the complexity of the case makes it difficult to predict how the matter will be decided.

In Chatrie’s case, one district judge ruled that the practice may be unconstitutional, yet permitted the evidence to go to trial.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit ultimately held that the search wasn’t the type that would fall under the Fourth Amendment. Because Chatrie opted to share his location history with Google, “he cannot now claim to have had a reasonable expectation of privacy,” U.S. Circuit Judge Julius Richardson wrote for the majority.

When the whole circuit reviewed the case, it similarly rejected Chatrie’s constitutional arguments.

In reviewing the fourth circuit’s reasoning, the Supreme Court could rule in a variety of ways.

Chatrie told the court that even if the initial warrant was constitutional, the government violated his rights in the way it executed it. Additional warrants, he said, were needed for the second and third requests involving narrower sets of device information.

Because those narrower sets of information weren’t specified in the initial warrant, the warrant itself was too broad to be constitutional. Chatrie pointed to a Supreme Court case—Groh v. Ramirez—from 2003 that rejected a warrant because it wasn’t “particularized” enough.

“If the government’s going to get all this location data for all these people ... courts [should] look at that very closely to determine if those requests are appropriate,” Moieker said.

The government defended the authorities’ actions, stating that the initial warrant laid out three separate searches that they could undertake. They added that the issuance of a warrant itself implied that the multiple searches were reasonable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 12:45

Apple Fixes Bug That Allowed FBI To Read Deleted Signal Messages

Authored by Brian Quarmby via CoinTelegraph.com,

Tech giant Apple has fixed a security flaw that had allowed the FBI to access a Signal user’s deleted messages through their phone’s push notification database, despite the app being deleted and messages being set to disappear.

In a security advisory released on Wednesday, Apple said it had fixed a bug that allowed “notifications marked for deletion” to be “unexpectedly retained on the device.”

In an X post on Wednesday, Signal said the update fixed the issue that made a user’s messages retrievable by law enforcement.

"Apple's advisory confirmed that the bugs that allowed this to happen have been fixed in the latest iOS release," Signal said.

Signal uses end-to-end encryption to secure messages between its users. The bug is a reminder that messaging encryption may not be enough to keep data protected when using certain devices or operating systems.

Apple’s notes on the security patch. Source: Apple

FBI found a backdoor to private messages

This security flaw was first highlighted by independent technology news website 404 Media, which reported on April 9 that documents recently unsealed in Texas federal court related to an FBI case over an attack on the Prairieland ICE Detention Facility last July.

The court proceedings showed that the FBI was able to forensically extract a defendant's Signal messages from the iPhone's notification database, which contained cached, readable previews of incoming Signal messages even after disappearing messages were enabled and the app was deleted.

Following the 404 Media report, Signal President Meredith Whittaker called on Apple to quickly fix the issue, noting in an April 14 X post that "notifications for deleted messages shouldn't remain in any OS notification database."

Pavel Durov, the co-founder of competing privacy messaging app Telegram, also commented on the report, arguing in an April 14 Telegram post that the only way to truly stay safe was for the app to "force an absence of notification previews" on both ends of a conversation.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 12:05

Supreme Court Hands Texas GOP Redistricting Win, While Virginia Judge Backs Democrats

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday granted Republicans a significant boost in the ongoing battle over congressional boundaries, issuing a summary reversal that allows Texas to proceed with its 2025 mid-decade congressional map for the November 2026 elections.

In the case, Abbott v. League of United Latin American Citizens, the justices overturned a federal district court’s earlier injunction against the new boundaries. The majority referenced its own prior opinion from late 2025 in the same litigation, while Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson noted their disagreement with the outcome.

The Texas map, redrawn by the Republican-led legislature last year, had faced challenges from voting-rights organizations that claimed it improperly relied on race. A lower court had blocked its implementation in November 2025, but the Supreme Court had previously paused that order to let primaries move forward.

Dems Score Win In Virginia

In a separate but related development playing out the same day, a Virginia state court delivered a win for Democrats on Sunday by rejecting a Republican-led challenge to a newly approved congressional map.

Richmond Circuit Court Judge Tracy Thorne-Begland turned down a last-minute bid by the Republican National Committee, the state GOP, and other plaintiffs seeking to halt certification of results from a voter referendum held the previous week. That ballot measure narrowly passed a set of new district lines drawn by Democratic lawmakers.

The judge emphasized that courts do not weigh in on the merits of policy choices but instead check whether elected officials followed constitutional rules. He found they had done so here. While acknowledging that the updated districts are less compact than before and reflect partisan considerations, Thorne-Begland concluded the question of compactness was open to reasonable debate after reviewing competing expert testimony, including from Boston University political scientist Maxwell Palmer.

Virginia’s current congressional delegation holds a 6-5 Democratic majority. The new configuration, if it survives final review, would expand that edge to 10-1 and create up to four additional competitive opportunities for Democrats in the fall midterms.

Plaintiffs had argued the map violated state constitutional standards and lacked proper legal authority when enacted. The judge, however, determined they were unlikely to succeed on the core claims at this stage.

The Virginia Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments later Monday on separate but overlapping questions about the legality of the referendum process and timing.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 11:45

Average 2Y Auction Is A Big Improvement From Last Month's Debale

In today's first of two coupon auctions (due to the week's truncated schedule as the Fed is on Wednesday), the US Treasury sold $69BN in 2 year paper in a mediocre auction, yet one which was notably stronger than last month's issuance.

The sale stopped at a high yield of 3.812%, down from last month's 3.936% and tailing the When Issued 3.811% by 0.1bps. This however was a big improvement from last month's 1.8bps tail, which was the biggest since March 2023. 

The bid to cover was 2.653, a notable improvent from last month's 2.440, above the recent average of 2.61%. That said, the BTC has come in a very narrow range of 2.4 to 2.8 for the past decade with little variation. 

The internals were marginally weaker, with Indirects taking down 56.48%, down from 59.38% and below the recent average. And with Directs almost doubling from 16.50% to 31.65%, Dealers were left holding 11.87%, down from a surprisingly high 24.12% in March.

Overall, this was an average auction yet the fact that it was a solid improvement from last month's ugly 2Y sale should probably be enough to position the market well heading into the day's second auction, the sale of 7Y paper at 1pm ET.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 11:43

Germany's Merz Says US 'Humiliated' By Iranians & Trump Lacks Strategy, Exit Plan

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a rare moment torched US foreign policy and the Trump administration's Iran war gambit. There's been plenty of criticism out of Europe since Operation Epic Fury kicked off on February 28, but Merz's Monday words are especially direct and scathing.

He proclaimed that Iran's leadership was embarrassing the US, claiming it was prompting US officials to travel to Pakistan and then return without achieving any outcome. "The Iranians are obviously very skilled ⁠at negotiating, or rather, very skillful at not negotiating, letting the Americans travel to Islamabad and then leave again without any result," he said.

The top German official made the remarks before students in the town of Marsberg. His sharpest attack came in the following: "An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards. And so I hope that this ends as quickly as possible."

Pool image/NY Times

Merz then claimed, "If I had known that it would continue like this for five or six weeks and get progressively worse, I would have told ​him even more emphatically." ​And yet the criticisms from EU leaders in the opening days were somewhat muted, meager, and weak.

The German leader further questioned whether the US had a clear exit strategy:

"The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either," Merz said during a school visit in Marsberg, a town in his home region of Sauerland.

"The problem with conflicts like this is always: you don't just have to get in, you have to get out again. We saw that very painfully in Afghanistan for 20 years. We saw it in Iraq."

Indeed a tiny handful of Republicans in Congress have made a similar argument, most especially Rep. Thomas Massie, in dissenting from the Iran war, especially given there's been no formal Congressional approval or war authorization.

Merz also commented on the potential blowback to Europe: "It is at the moment a pretty tangled situation," he said. "And it is costing us a great deal of money. This conflict, this war against Iran, has a direct impact on our economic output."

Given the Trump admin's positions of late, Merz saying "An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership" certainly opens the door to withdrawing US troops from Germany. pic.twitter.com/2DmcB35Q24

— Justin Logan (@JustinTLogan) April 27, 2026

The fresh critique is certainly going to add fuel to the fire of Trump's ratcheting anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric, given their absence in helping the US get the Strait of Hormuz back open and the return to normal functioning of global energy transit once again.

But Trump's own words have been confusing for allies to say the least - on the one hand lambasting them for not joining a US-led coalition, but then sometimes in the same breath declaring that Washington does not 'need their help'. Naturally this enables uncertain fence-sitting allies to shrug and say simply, this is "not our war" - as the lead European powers are doing.

Some American conservative pundits have been increasingly breaking with Trump over the Iran war, a trend that is likely to grow the longer the war and Hormuz crisis persists:

At this point, more California teachers have tried to assassinate Trump than Iranians have.

I really wish he’d get back to domestic concerns and stop cleaning up the rest of the world.

— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) April 26, 2026

The White House is said to be mulling 'punishment' for allies who haven't stepped up - for example removing US troops from European territory, at a moment EU leaders have warned of the 'Russia threat' related to the ongoing Ukraine war. There's even a NATO 'naughty' list supposedly circling within the US administration. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 11:05

The post Will Gravity Pull Down the AI Bubble? appeared first on CEPR.

Hold The Horses

By Rabobank

There are five G10 central bank meetings scheduled this week and not a single policy move is expected between them. That said, the signalling of policymakers will be crucial. For each of the BoJ, Fed, BoC, ECB and the BoE, the market will be watching to see how rate setters are gauging the two sided the risks to growth and inflation implied by the Iran war. It remains Rabo’s view that the Fed will likely cut rates again this year. This outcome may have been made a little easier by the weekend announcement from Senator Tillis regarding President Trump’s nominee for the next Fed Chair. Following Friday’s news that the Department of Justice would drop a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, related to renovations at the Federal Reserve, Tillis has removed his objection to nominee Warsh facing a vote in the Senate. While Trump may be a step closer to seeing his choice of candidate in the position of Fed Chair, US treasury yields have ticked higher this morning with the market still focused on inflation risks in the absence of little concrete news regarding a peace deal in the Middle East.

There may not have been any recent peace talks but Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi has had a busy few days. Following trips to Pakistan and Oman to talk with peace negotiators over the weekend, he has now travelled to Russia in a bid to ratchet up support. Having cancelled a trip by US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan, Trump made it clear that Iran could use the telephone to make a deal - Iran had made clear that talks would be indirect. Trump also reiterated the US’s condition that Iran must not be able to obtain a nuclear weapon. For its part, Iran is maintaining that it will not re-enter talks with the US while its navy is blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

On disappointment over the lack of fresh peace talks, Brent crude spent the first few hours of the European session edging higher before reversing those gains. While US stock market indices closed mixed on Friday, it hasn’t taken much for equity markets to revert to their ‘glass half full’ approach to the global outlook. Despite the very real risks to the global economy implied by higher inflation, much of this optimism has been driven by a solid set of Q1 earnings reported by corporate America. This week there will be no escaping the focus on the tech sector with results due for five of the huge US hyper-scalers.

Week ahead 

The BoJ will be the first of this week’s G10 central banks to announce its policy decision which will come tomorrow. In contrast to the other four central banks that meet this week, the market had been debating the risks of an April rate hike from the BoJ since the start of the year. BoJ rate hike risk has now been shifted to June. Whether that risk shifts again will be dependent on the tone of rate setters at this week’s meeting. The absence of hawkish rhetoric is likely to place fresh upside pressure on USD/JPY which may force the MoF to step up its push back against JPY weakness and a potential break beyond the psychologically important USD/JPY160.00 level.

Aside from the policy guidance offered by the Fed, the market will be watching on Wednesday to see if outgoing Chair Powell is intending to retain his seat in the FOMC after his term as Chair concludes. Almost all of Powell’s predecessors have decided to leave when their term as chair ends, though technically Powell could stay until 2028. If he leaves, Trump will have another seat to fill, which the market could anticipate as having a slightly dovish implication for the FOMC. There is less scope for drama at the BoC. The market is currently priced for slightly higher BoC policy rates on a 6-month view, though the swing in market expectations regarding policy rates in Canada falls a long way short of that seen in the UK since the start of last month.

Ahead of the start of the Iran war, the market had been confident of two more rate cuts from the BoE this year as growing excess capacity in the UK slowed inflation potential. At one point last month, this had swung to expectations of as many as four rate hikes, guided by the UK’s recent poor experience with sticky inflation. These excessive rate hike expectations have now moderated. However, it is Rabo’s view that there will still likely be one rate hike this year in order to demonstrate vigilance. For the ECB, we also see the risk that policy makers will opt for some tightening in the face of the inflation shock, though we have moved our forecast to June. Clearly by June, policymakers will be much wiser regarding the duration of the war and the extent to both the potential impact on their respective economies.

While the question of how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed continues to limit focus on economic data, there are some interesting releases this week. These include Australian Q1 CPI inflation data, which could dictate the next policy action of one of the most hawkish G10 central banks. US March personal income and spending data will also be released this week in addition to US Q1 GDP. In Europe, GDP and labour data are due.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 10:45

MAHA Advocates To Converge In Washington For 'People Vs. Poison' Rally

Authored by Jeff Louderbeck via The Epoch Times,

A bipartisan crowd of Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) proponents is set to converge on the U.S. Supreme Court steps on the morning of April 27 and bring attention to the Trump administration’s handling of glyphosate and alleged health hazards stemming from use of the chemical.

Glyphosate is the main chemical in Roundup, a product made by Bayer subsidiary Monsanto.

As the Supreme Court commences oral arguments about whether Bayer should be held legally liable for not letting its customers know that glyphosate could cause cancer, the “People vs. Poison” rally will take place outside.

“There are people from every walk of life coming to speak. This should be a bipartisan issue—to have a country where our food supply is not poisoned,” said Vani Hari, organizer of the event. Hari is a MAHA advocate who has a blog and website called “Food Babe.”

“The entire movement needs to organize and tell our stories and tell the voice of what this company is doing to our farmland, to our farmers, to our future, and to our children’s future,” Hari said.

The April 27 hearing at the Supreme Court centers around John Durnell, a Missouri man who developed non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma after years of exposure to Roundup. A jury unanimously found the exposure caused Durnell’s illness. The jury found Monsanto, which has been owned by Bayer since 2018, liable and awarded him $1.25 million after concluding that Monsanto failed to comply with state law requiring a warning about cancer risks.

Monsanto’s attorneys in court filings told the justices the case had been wrongly decided due to the legal principle of preemption, which says federal law takes precedence over state laws when the two are in conflict.

A day before the president signed an executive order relating to glyphosate, Bayer announced that Monsanto submitted a proposal for a $7.25 billion class‑action settlement.

In 2018, Bayer completed its acquisition of Monsanto for $63 billion including debt.

In 2020, Bayer agreed to a separate $10 billion settlement regarding non-Hodgkin lymphoma claims.

Glyphosate is used to kill weeds and dry crops before harvest.

Glyphosate-tolerant crops account for a significant majority of the corn, soy, and cotton acreage on American farms.

Through its subsidiary Monsanto, Bayer is the only U.S. producer of glyphosate, which is the key ingredient in Roundup. It is the most widely used herbicide in history, according to the Global Glyphosate Study.

Bayer did not return a request for comment from The Epoch Times by publication.

Trump’s executive order called glyphosate-based herbicides “a cornerstone of this Nation’s agricultural productivity and rural economy, allowing United States farmers and ranchers to maintain high yields and low production costs while ensuring that healthy, affordable food options remain within reach for all American families.”

However, MAHA proponents believe that the Trump administration should devote more resources to bolster regenerative farming methods, a practice that restores soil health while reducing or eliminating pesticides and fertilizers. Last December, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Department of Agriculture announced a $700 million pilot program to help farmers adopt regenerative farming policies.

In February, the president surprised some MAHA movement leaders when he issued his executive order, which seeks to increase production of glyphosate and provide liability protections to Bayer, the company facing thousands of glyphosate-related lawsuits.

The order angered some MAHA proponents who are focused on educating people about the human health dangers posed by glyphosate and working to prevent chemical makers from getting legal immunity.

Monsanto would like the Supreme Court to rule that, under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), it cannot be held liable for not warning about a cancer risk if the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has not determined such a risk exists.

The company is also arguing that FIFRA preempts any state requirements for such a cancer warning.

The EPA has concluded that glyphosate is “unlikely” to be carcinogenic.

U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer urged the Supreme Court to hear Monsanto’s case last year.

Sauer earlier this year filed an amicus brief that favored Monsanto. He requested and was granted permission to deliver oral arguments to the court supporting Monsanto’s position.

MAHA Community Speaks Out

Kelly Ryerson, known as the Glyphosate Girl and cofounder of American Regeneration, is one of the scheduled speakers at the People vs. Poison rally.

Ryerson told The Epoch Times that she believes the Trump administration “understands the importance of the MAHA constituency, and wants to keep communication open,” but she acknowledges that the fallout among MAHA proponents from the glyphosate executive order and support for Bayer in the U.S. Supreme Court case “might not be reparable.”

“I’m hopeful that they will try to win the grassroots voters back through the type of policy we expected when we supported this administration,” Ryerson said.

The MAHA movement is propelled by a grassroots group of bipartisan voters who are focused on addressing chronic disease, ultra-processed foods, corporate capture of government health agencies, and environmental toxins.

MAHA supporters are enthusiastic about what they deem wins since Kennedy became HHS secretary. Under Kennedy, the federal government began to phase out artificial dyes in some foods, removed junk food from several state SNAP programs, replaced members of a national vaccine panel, and worked to eliminate the “generally recognized as safe” policy that allows food companies to certify new additives as safe without gaining FDA approval.

However, the Trump administration’s management of glyphosate in 2026 has generated tension between MAHA proponents and the Republican Party.

Hari commended the Trump administration for its pro-MAHA initiatives but noted that “eating real food” is not a positive “when it’s being sprayed with glyphosate.”

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) are also among the rally’s scheduled speakers. Both lawmakers are farmers. They have teamed up to introduce an amendment to this year’s federal farm bill that strips legal immunity from chemical companies.

Provisions in the measure would shield chemical manufacturers from lawsuits and “would preempt state and local warning label laws or usage regulations for potentially harmful products,” according to an April 22 statement from Pingree.

The Pingree-Massie Protect Our Health Amendment would remove the language from the farm bill.

“Big Chemical has spent years trying to buy exactly this kind of protection from Congress: immunity from lawsuits, weaker safeguards, and a federal override of state and local pesticide protections. This Farm Bill would hand it to them on a silver platter,” Pingree said.

“If a company’s product makes people sick, that company should be held accountable. If states and local communities want to put stronger protections in place, they should have every right to do so. [This] is beyond politics and party lines. Congress should be protecting families, farmers, and children, not doing favors for Bayer and other chemical giants,” Pingree said.

Earlier this year, Massie delivered an address on the House floor saying that “all three branches of this government is under siege by lobbyists and lawyers from a German company named Bayer.”

“They spent over $9 million lobbying the executive branch and the legislative branch so that they don’t have to be liable for any damages that their herbicide causes,” Massie said.

“The Constitution guarantees people a trial if they’ve been harmed. Why are we contemplating going against the Constitution?”

Massie noted that then Attorney General Pam Bondi and Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, worked for Ballard Partners, a firm that registered to lobby for Bayer in December 2024.

Trump’s executive order stating that glyphosate production is “a national defense priority” was issued to protect Bayer from liability, Massie said.

“We shouldn’t succumb to the lobbyists—not in the executive branch, not in the judicial branch, and certainly not here in Congress and not in the state legislatures. There’s a lot of money at play, and I implore my colleagues to resist it and do not give them immunity,” Massie added.

Kennedy publicly defended Trump’s glyphosate executive order after it was issued.

“Donald Trump’s Executive Order puts America first where it matters most—our defense readiness and our food supply. We must safeguard America’s national security first. ... When hostile actors control critical inputs, they weaken our security. By expanding domestic production, we close that gap and protect American families,” he said.

In an X post, Kennedy noted that pesticides are “toxic by design and put Americans at risk, but the current system was inherited from prior administrations.”

He supported the move to bring production of glyphosate back to the United States from China and end reliance on adversaries while adding the need for a transition to regenerative farming methods and alternatives.

In an interview on “The Joe Rogan Experience” last month, Kennedy said he was “not particularly happy, to put it mildly,” with Trump’s executive order on glyphosate.

Kennedy noted that he has “spent 40 years fighting pesticides” and considers them poison, but he understands Trump’s position of not disrupting the agricultural sector.

He stressed that “we all know we’ve got to transition off of glyphosate” and highlighted work on alternatives like laser weed control and the regenerative agriculture pilot.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 10:30

"Blockbuster Week" Preview: Fed, ECB, BOJ On Deck, Earnings Avalanche, GDP, PCE

Tomorrow marks exactly two months since the strikes on Iran began. As DB's Jim Reid writes, while there is currently a rolling, open ended ceasefire that started on 8 April, the risk of it collapsing at any point remains real. Just as the weekend news looked like it was leaning negatively though, last night reports came through that Iran have offered the US a fresh proposal to reopen the strait and end the war. However as Axios and others reported, this proposal postpones talks on nuclear capabilities. So it’s unclear whether the US Administration would tolerate that but for now the market is trading better than it might have done to start the week. This fresh development follows President Trump cancelling a planned visit to Islamabad by envoys Kushner and Witkoff, saying that the Iranians had “offered a lot, but not enough.” Iranian President Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said Iran would not agree to “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” The coming week will no doubt bring further developments, though predicting them is close to impossible. When the conflict began more than eight weeks ago, Reid - and many others - expected it to be comfortably over by now, with markets having followed the usual playbook and fully recovered. The market reaction has largely played out, but for the wrong reasons: the conflict is not over. That said, markets still appear to price in a meaningful chance that it will be resolved relatively soon. Polymarket, for example, suggests a 56% probability of traffic returning to normal by 30 June, although this briefly reached 91% ten days ago when it appeared that Iran was reopening the Strait.

In other news, one notable development yesterday was Senator Thom Tillis’s decision to lift his block on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Fed. Tillis said he was satisfied with the Department of Justice’s decision late last week to drop its investigation into the Fed refurbishment. There had been some concern on Saturday that the DLooking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week - alongside 42% of the S&P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 - it is shaping up to be a blockbuster weekoJ had left the door open to reopening the probe at a later stage, which might not have been sufficient to clear the way. However, Tillis indicated that he had received assurances that gave him enough comfort to remove his block.

In terms of overnight markets, Brent crude is up +1.22%, marking the sixth consecutive session of gains, trading at $106.61 per barrel, following the weekend news. However regional equities are strong with the KOSPI (+2.57%) now at +57.6% YTD, largely on the back of two stocks: Samsung and SK Hynix. The Nikkei (+1.88%) is also strong. Other markets are a bit more subdued with the Hang Seng (+0.15%), the CSI (+0.21%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) slightly higher but with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.14%) dipping. 

Looking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week - alongside 42% of the S&P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 - it is shaping up to be a blockbuster week, even before factoring in ongoing Iranian war newsflow.

The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow, followed by the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Thursday then brings decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. All are expected to remain on hold, but the key question will be how each central bank’s reaction function is shaped by the conflict and the associated stagflation risks. 

From an earnings perspective, 22% of S&P 500 market capitalization — across just four companies — reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results. Apple follows on Thursday.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Turning to the Fed meeting mid week, Deutsche Bank economists’ base case is that any meaningful change in guidance is deferred until June, since this is Powell's last meeting. That said, there is a tangible risk that communication skews modestly hawkish — either through subtle language tweaks around “additional policy adjustments” or via Chair Powell signalling a more symmetrical assessment of risks to the dual mandate. An explicit acknowledgement that risks to price stability and employment are now more evenly balanced would likely be interpreted as a marginally less accommodative stance.

Geopolitics will loom large in Powell’s press conference, given developments in the Middle East. With uncertainty still elevated, Powell is likely to emphasise that policymakers cannot yet assess the precise implications for growth or inflation. However, he may also note that persistently high oil prices raise the risk of inflation becoming more entrenched over time. Overall, the tone should be consistent with a Fed prepared to remain on the sidelines for a while longer.

Alongside the meeting, Thursday’s personal income and spending report — and particularly core PCE — will be equally important. Income is expected to rebound by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline, while consumption is forecast to rise 0.5%. DB expects the core PCE deflator to increase by 0.25% month on month, lifting the year on year rate to around 3.13%. If realised, Q1 core PCE inflation will average just above 3.0%, marking five years since the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge last ran at or below its 2% target. Our latest projections see core CPI and core PCE at 2.7% and 2.9% respectively by Q4 2026, highlighting how recent energy related shocks continue to complicate the path back to target.

Other data ahead of the meeting are unlikely to materially alter the Fed’s decision. Consumer confidence tomorrow is expected to fall to 88.8 from 91.9, reflecting heightened geopolitical concerns. More important than the headline will be the “jobs plentiful” and “jobs hard to get” components, which historically track movements in the unemployment rate and offer insight into perceived labour market momentum.

Wednesday brings a cluster of releases that will refine expectations for Thursday’s advance Q1 GDP estimate. Housing starts are forecast to rise to 1.425 million from 1.35 million, with permits edging up to 1.390 million. Durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.4% for the headline, but ex transportation and core orders are projected to rise 0.5%, pointing to continued strength in capital investment. Together with the advance goods trade balance, these data frame our economists’ 2.8% annualised forecast for Q1 real GDP — a sharp rebound from 0.5% in Q4.

Thursday’s data batch is the most consequential of the week, even beyond core PCE. While DB still expects 2.8% inflation adjusted growth for Q1 GDP, the composition has shifted meaningfully. Consumer spending is forecast to contribute 1.2pp, down from 1.9pp in Q4, while non residential fixed investment accelerates sharply to 7.5%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — our preferred measure of underlying demand — are projected to edge up to 2.0%. Risks to the headline GDP number appear broadly balanced, particularly given volatility in trade flows.

Elsewhere on Thursday we see the employment cost index and the Chicago PMI. Friday kicks off May with the ISM manufacturing index and vehicle sales. While business surveys may not yet fully reflect recent war developments, they should provide early signals on whether firms share markets’ confidence that the conflict will have limited and temporary economic effects. Last week’s flash PMI suggested US businesses remain far more confident on this front than their European counterparts.

In Europe, attention turns to preliminary April CPI prints, with Germany and Spain reporting first on Wednesday and the broader euro area numbers on Thursday, alongside advance Q1 GDP. Ahead of that, Tuesday brings the ECB’s consumer expectations and bank lending surveys.

In Japan, key releases include April Tokyo CPI on Friday and March activity data on Thursday, while China sees its official April PMIs on Thursday, following industrial profits for March earlier in the week. As usual, the full day by day calendar appears at the end.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday April 27

• Data: US April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China March industrial profits, Germany May GfK consumer confidence
• Earnings: Verizon, Hitachi, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Deutsche Boerse
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday April 28

• Data: US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, February FHFA house price index, Japan March jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Italy March PPI, February industrial sales
• Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB consumer expectations survey, bank lending survey
• Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Welltower, Corning, Booking, S&P Global, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Sherwin-Williams, Barclays, Ecolab, Hilton, Robinhood Markets, Mondelez, Vale, General Motors, Teradyne, NXP Semiconductors, Sysco, Kimberly-Clark
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn), 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday April 29

• Data: US March durable goods orders, building permits, housing starts, advance goods trade balance, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, Germany April CPI, Italy April economic sentiment, March hourly wages, Eurozone March M3, April economic confidence, Australia March CPI, Sweden March GDP indicator
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC’s decision
• Earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, KLA, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Qualcomm, UBS, GSK, Equinix, Carvana, Automatic Data Processing, Lloyds, DSV, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Old Dominion Freight Line, eBay, Porsche, Universal Music Group, Haleon, adidas, Verisk Analytics

Thursday April 30

• Data: US Q1 GDP, employment cost index, March PCE, personal income, spending, leading index, April MNI Chicago PMI, initial jobless claims, China April PMIs, UK April Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, April consumer confidence index, Germany April unemployment claims rate, Q1 GDP, March retail sales, import price index, France Q1 GDP, private sector payrolls, April CPI, March PPI, consumer spending, Italy Q1 GDP, April CPI, March unemployment rate, Eurozone Q1 GDP, April CPI, March unemployment rate, Canada February GDP
• Central banks: ECB’s decision, BoE’s decision
• Earnings: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck & Co, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, DBS, Stryker, BBVA, Parker-Hannifin, Bristol-Myers Squibb, BNP Paribas, Altria, Agnico Eagle Mines, ING, CRH, Royal Caribbean Cruises, L3Harris Technologies, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, BASF, Standard Chartered, Volkswagen, Hershey, Reddit, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Nemetschek, Puma

Friday May 1

• Data: US April ISM index, total vehicle sales, UK March net consumer credit, March M4, Japan April Tokyo CPI, Canada April manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: BoE’s Pill speaks
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, NatWest, Ares, Estee Lauder, TPG

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the employment cost index, advance Q1 GDP, and core PCE reports on Thursday. The April FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, April 27 

• There are no major data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, April 28 

• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, February (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); We estimate that the Case-Shiller home price index increased only +0.1% in February, reflecting the sequentially weaker signal from higher frequency measures of home prices.
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, February (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, April (GS 88.5, consensus 89.0, last 91.8)

Wednesday, April 29 

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, March preliminary (GS +3.0%, consensus +0.5%, last -1.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods orders, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, March preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last +1.0%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased 3% in the preliminary March report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a rebound in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.4% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the continued increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys but payback for an outsized increase in the series itself in February—and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, March (GS -$88.5bn, consensus -$86.8bn, last -$83.5bn): We forecast that the goods trade deficit widened by $5.0bn to $88.5bn in March, reflecting a decline in gold exports and a continued increase in AI-related imports.
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, March (GS 1,385k, consensus 1,400k, last 1,487k [January]); Building permits, March (consensus 1,390k, last 1,386k [January]): Census will jointly release housing starts and building permits data for the months of February and March. We forecast that housing starts declined to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1,385k in March, reflecting reversion toward the level of permits following a jump in January starts driven by the more volatile multifamily category; a continued decline in homebuilder sentiment; and the potential lagged impact of poor weather in late January and February.
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, April 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to leave the funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. We only expect Governor Miran to dissent in favor of a 25bp cut. The FOMC is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see message because the war with Iran continues to cloud the economic outlook and to present risks to both inflation and activity. The Committee’s post-meeting statement is likely to acknowledge the better labor market news and higher inflation numbers but to leave the standing policy guidance unchanged. 

Thursday, April 30 

• 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 advance (GS +3.3%, consensus +2.2%, last +0.5%); Personal consumption, Q1 advance (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.9%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 advance (GS +4.04%, consensus +4.1%, last +2.7%): We estimate that GDP rose 3.3% annualized in the advance reading for Q1, following a +0.5% annualized increase in Q4. Our forecast reflects a large boost to federal government spending (+22.5%, quarter-over-quarter annualized) from the end of the government shutdown worth +1.3pp on Q1 GDP. We expect a deceleration in both consumption (+1.1% vs. +1.9% in Q4) and residential investment (-4.8% vs. -1.7% in Q4) growth. We estimate that private domestic final sales rose 2.1% in Q1. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 4.04% annualized (or 3.04% year-over-year) in Q1.
• 08:30 AM Personal income, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Personal spending, March (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.5%); Core PCE price index, March (GS +0.27%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +3.15%, consensus +3.2%, last +3.0%); PCE price index, March (GS +0.64%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), March (GS +3.45%, consensus +3.5%, last +2.8%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, in March. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.27% in March, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.15%. Additionally, we estimate that the headline PCE price index increased 0.64% in March, or increased 3.45% from a year earlier.
• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q1 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.7%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q1 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted). Our forecast would result in a 0.1pp decline in the year-on-year rate to 3.3% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), which would mark the slowest pace of yearly wage growth since 2021Q2. Our forecast reflects a roughly unchanged quarterly pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings—but a slight rebound in ECI benefit growth—reflecting the impact of start-of-the-year benefit resets.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 25 (GS 205k, consensus 212k, last 214k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 18 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,820k)

Friday, May 1 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April final (consensus 54.0, last 54.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, April (GS 53.5, consensus 53.1, last 52.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.8pt to 53.5 in April, reflecting improvement in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.2pt to 54.6—but a headwind from potential residual seasonality—the ISM manufacturing index has declined in eight of the last nine Aprils.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, April (GS 16.0mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 16.3mn)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 10:20

Tillis Gives Warsh Green Light After DOJ Drops Powell Inquiry

The last roadblock to Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve is getting out of the way, as North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) said on Sunday that he's ready to lend his support towards Warsh's confirmation. 

Tillis had refused to advance Warsh or any other Fed nominee until the DOJ dropped its investigation into current chair, Jerome Powell over cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed's headquarters. After DC US attorney Jeanine Pirro said on Friday that the matter would be dropped, Tillis told NBC's Meet the Press that he was ready to move forward with the first committee vote on Warsh.

Senator Thom Tillis in the Capitol this month.Credit...Caroline Gutman for The New York Times

"They have made it very clear that the current investigation is completely and fully ended," said Tillis. 

WELKER: Pirro says she's willing to reopen a criminal investigation into Powell. You just heard the AG leave the door open too. But will you now vote yes to confirm Kevin Warsh?

TILLIS: I am now prepared to vote yes, with assurances from the DOJ pic.twitter.com/o5v0MlfQUW

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 26, 2026

Last week during Warsh's confirmation hearing, Tillis made clear that he would block the nomination unless the inquiry was dropped.

Thom Tillis still refuses to blame Trump for anything: "The problem I have is that some US attorney or assistant US attorney with a dream thought it would be cute to bring Chair Powell under an investigation ... the boss said he didn't know anything about it" pic.twitter.com/WhBawG82bZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 21, 2026

Now, Tillis says that after discussions with the DOJ, he's confident that the "current investigation is completely and fully ended," and that the discussions gave him confidence that "they were not using the D.O.J. as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed."

Tillis's vote has been key to determining whether Warsh - a former Fed governor from 2006-2001 - will be confirmed by the time Powell's term officially ends May 15. 

//--> //--> //-->

And obviously, he's a lock. 

Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?
Yes 100% · No 0%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 10:10

 

 

The paperback of “How Not to Invest” will be released next week on May 5th!

It seems more relevant than ever lately, and I am excited to be out discussing it.

Here is the blurb from the publisher:

The bestselling guide to avoiding the mistakes that destroy wealth is coming to paperback on May 5. In this expanded, highly readable volume, Barry Ritholtz distills three decades of market experience into real-world stories, data-driven insights, and practical tools that help investors sidestep the bad ideas, misleading numbers, and self-sabotaging behaviors that ruin portfolios.

Whether you are just getting started or managing substantial assets, How Not to Invest shows you how to identify common pitfalls, build a more resilient process, and become a better steward of your money by simply making fewer costly mistakes. Preorder the new paperback edition today wherever books are sold and be ready when it hits shelves on May 5.

Be sure to check it out!

~~~

Want to bring “How Not to Invest” to your podcast, conference, or corporate event?

Reach out to Tina (tina.joell AT harriman-house.com) or Lucy (lucy.vincent AT harriman-house.com) to schedule a call to discuss.

 

The post “How Not to Invest” Paperback May 5! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Starmer Faces 'Sleaze Inquiry' Vote Over Epstein Pal Mandelson's Appointment

Trouble has been brewing for UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador - despite Mandelson's well-known past associations with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Mandelson, a senior New Labour figure and former EU Trade Commissioner, has long faced questions over his friendship with sex-offender Epstein, and these ties were public knowledge when Starmer nominated him for the prestigious Washington role.

While Starmer admitted he was aware of the relationship, he says Mandelson "lied repeatedly" about the extent - leading to Mandelson's ouster in September of last year after emails revealed much closer ties - including allegations of sharing sensitive information. 

//--> //--> Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

On Tuesday, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House of Commons, is expected to allow a debate and vote on whether to refer Starmer to the privileges committee over claims that he lied to MPs - with conservatives and other opposition parties claiming that Starmer insisted that "due process" had been followed in Mandelson's appointment, and that there was "no pressure whatsoever." 

Last week, Sir Olly Robbins - who Starmer sacked as permanent secretary at the Foreign Office - said Starmer is full of shit, and that there was in fact "constant pressure" regarding Mandelson's appointment. 

According to The Times, Hoyle is expected to allow the request for a debate and vote because the bar for doing so is "relatively low." For example, Boris Johnson had to waive through his referral over the Downing Street lockdown parties scandal to the privileges committee because of outrage on his benches - an episode which ended his career in frontline politics. 

Starmer is expected to whip his MPs to oppose any attempt to refer him to a parliamentary investigation. However, an attempt to compel Labour MPs to prevent scrutiny of his conduct could risk a similar backlash, and some rebels are likely to refuse to oppose the referral.

Alan Johnson and Lord Blunkett, the former Labour cabinet ministers, issued a joint statement opposing a vote. They called it “a nakedly political stunt with no substance ahead of the May elections”. -The Times

Johnson and Blunkett said in a joint statement that the comparison to Johnson is "absurd" and a "waste of public money and a diversion from the major challenges this country faces." 

Environment secretary Emma Reynolds says Starmer "doesn't need" to go before the committee because he "hasn't lied to parliament" - telling Times Radio: "It was proven categorically last week that [he] didn’t know that Sir Olly Robbins had gone against the advice of security vetting and passed Peter Mandelson through that process when he shouldn’t have been passed through."

Labour, meanwhile, wants Starmer gone - but one MP told the Times that it's "a very different matter from people choosing to go through the lobby with Tories on a vote of confidence in the prime minister."

Slight reaction in 10Y gilts. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 10:00

Futures Flat At All Time Highs Ahead Of Huge Week, Semis Set For 19th Day Of Gains

Risk sentiment improved overnight on another Axios report that Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with more detailed nuclear talks expected later. Oil pares early gains, and US equity futures jumped although they have also pared gains since and are trading flat as traders await a huge week of earnings (44% of the S&P by mkt cap is set to report) and central bank decisions (Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE and BOC all expected to keep rates on hold). As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are flat and Nasdaq 100 contracts gain 0.2% after Friday's records for both indexes even though leadership is narrow, and the S&P equal weight index closed negative on the week; premarket gains by chip stocks like Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel and Micron suggest the semiconductor ETF (SOX) is set for a record 19th day of gains. Mag7s are mixed, semis are bid, discretionary outperforms staples, cyclicals over defensives, and AI theme is bid across multiple sectors. Looming Big Tech results (22% of S&P 500 market cap across just four companies reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results with Apple following on Thursday) will test whether April’s rally is sustainable, with signs of caution under the surface of the gains.  Bond yields are +1-2bps as the yield curve steepens; DXY is lower. Commodities are bid led by the Energy complex, with most products up at least 2%. Brent crude rose 1.1% to about $106.50 a barrel after Trump canceled a trip by top envoys to mediators in Pakistan over the weekend. Base metals are leading Precious with Ags continuing its march higher. Today’s macro data calendar is light ahead of a heavy central bank schedule where major CBs are expected to hold ahead of the market pricing changes in June. Warsh is set to be confirmed without further delays while Powell’s status remains unclear. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia +1.6%, Alphabet +0.4%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta +0.04%, Microsoft -0.4%, Tesla -0.4%, Apple -1.8%)

• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) falls 3% after the company reported revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• GE Vernova (GEV) is down 1.6% after BNP Paribas downgraded the power equipment company to neutral, predicting it would find it harder to sustain growth momentum, given that 90% of gas turbine capacity is already contracted through 2030.
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) rises 1.6% after saying its gene-editing treatment for a rare swelling disorder met its goal in a late-stage trial, paving the way for the potential first approval of a new way of modifying DNA.
• Organon & Co. (OGN) gains 16% as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. has lined up a short-term loan to help finance its $12 billion acquisition of the New York-listed healthcare company, according to people familiar with the transaction.
• Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) climbs 15% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 clinical trial of lonvo-z in hereditary angioedema.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) jumps 13% after TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said industry checks suggest OpenAI is working with the chipmaker and Taiwan’s MediaTek to develop smartphone processors.
• VeraDermics (MANE) climbs 15% after saying its oral extended-release minoxidil formulation VDPHL01 met all primary and key secondary endpoints with high statistical significance in a Phase 2/3 clinical trial for male pattern hair loss.
• Verizon (VZ) gains 3% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• XOMA Royalty Corp. (XOMA) shares are halted after Ligand Pharmaceuticals agreed to buy the company for $39 per share of common stock in cash

In other corporate news, Musk says he’s nearing his goal of turning X into an “everything app” with a new financial services tool called X Money, which is expected to launch for the public this month. China has decided to block Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of agentic AI startup Manus, making a surprise move to unwind a controversial deal.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 10% this month following an unprecedented but increasingly narrow rally thanks to chipmakers and robust earnings, helping the benchmark recoup all losses after the war in the Middle East upended energy flows. Chip stocks are set for further gains on Monday, with names such as Qualcomm Inc., Intel Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. rising in premarket trading. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%.

While Friday witnessed new records for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, hegde funds are selling tech stocks, leadership is extremely narrow, and the S&P equal weight index closed negative on the week

Systematic strategies have bought stocks aggressively, but some investors have less conviction. Hedge funds are using the US equity rally to reduce risks, according to traders on Goldman's prime brokerage desk, who point out significant degrossing and selling to tech stocks.

Some Wall Street strategists say it may be a good time to buy insurance via options, such as pure stock hedges or broader protection against higher interest rates. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, meanwhile, expects any potential pullbacks to be shallow given passive investors are still under-risked.

The signs of caution come as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-complete halt, pushing WTI back above $96. Goldman Sachs analysts lifted their oil-price forecasts again, saying that an estimated 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record pace. 

“Even if we do get a deal, oil is not going back to pre-war levels,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “We need to factor in some degree of stagflationary impact. The US should be the least impacted, South Asia the most impacted, while Europe should be somewhere in between.”

Yet markets remain largely unfazed by continued oil price increases; for them the AI narrative takes precedence. Traders continue to chase the theme through the semiconductor complex, pushing the SOX Index to its most overbought level in 15 years. The SOX has also completely dislocated from the ISM Manufacturing reading. That gap historically tends to close one way or another.

It's an extremely busy weeks for earnings with over 42% of the S&P set to report Q1 results.  Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta and Apple make this a make-or-break week for the rally. The companies are worth nearly $16 trillion combined, representing a quarter of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Expanding profits have helped keep a lid on valuations, with the Mag-7 ex-Tesla trading at a P/E of 25x, down from 29x in October. 22% of S&P 500 market capitalisation, across just four companies, reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results. Apple follows on Thursday.

Of the 139 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 80% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 14% have missed. 

We also get a bonanza of central bank announcements (Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE, BOC) this week. Policymakers in the US and across the G7 will probably keep rates steady this week while watching the impact of higher energy costs. Wednesday will see the Federal Reserve deliver its latest interest-rate decision, with central bank officials across the Group of Seven also meeting during the week as investors eye how policymakers confront the risk of a war-driven inflation shock. As for Wednesday’s Fed policy meeting, any meaningful change in guidance will likely be deferred until June, wrote Jim Reid, head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. 

“That said, there is a tangible risk that communication skews modestly hawkish,” Reid said. “An explicit acknowledgment that risks to price stability and employment are now more evenly balanced would likely be interpreted as a marginally less accommodative stance.”

In another keenly anticipated event this week, a Senate Banking Committee vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as chair of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday. Warsh is expected to be swiftly confirmed as Jerome Powell’s successor, whose term ends on May 15, after Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he’s dropping his blockade of the nomination he said in an NBC interview. The DOJ’s decision to drop a criminal probe into the Fed may clear a path for Trump’s nominee to take over, but it won’t secure the current Fed chair’s departure. At his confirmation hearing last week, Warsh called for a “regime change” in the way the Fed conducts policy. Money markets are currently leaning against any Fed rate cut in 2026.

“Markets are looking for a new narrative and are jumping back to the AI boom for now,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “However, most investors seem to be guided by uncertainty and are still assessing the fallout from the Iran war. This could mean that a new macro story will emerge soon.”

In politics, Trump is using the Saturday night shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner to add a security rationale to his case for building a massive White House ballroom. Budget airlines are asking the White House for a relief plan worth $2.5 billion in exchange for convertible equity stakes in the carriers.

European stocks rise, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.3% after erasing an earlier fall. Energy, industrial and bank names are leading gains.Energy and retail sectors outperform. Sainsbury falls after a double-downgrade from Goldman. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Nordex surges as much as 15% after the renewable-energy equipment firm beat expectations in the first quarter of the year.
• Commerzbank rises as much as 2.2% as Bank of America upgrades its shares to buy, saying they look attractive whether the bank is bought by Unicredit or not.
• Whitbread shares gain as much as 3.6% after a report from the Times over the weekend said the company plans sell a swathe of Premier Inn hotels to unlock £1.5 billion.
• Kingfisher shares rise as much as 1.1% after the DIY retailer was upgraded at Barclays following its recent underperformance against European peers.
• Orsted shares rise as much as 3.9% as Goldman Sachs upgrades its rating on the offshore energy company to buy from neutral.
• Entain shares fall as much as 7.1% in heavy trading volume after news that one of the gaming company’s major shareholders, Eminence Capital, is being shuttered.
• Sainsbury drops as much as 4.8% as Goldman double-downgrades to sell on macro headwinds, and Citi lowers its rating on the UK supermarket chain to neutral on weaker than expected Ebit guidance for 2027.
• Nexi shares fall as much as 3% after Bank of America downgrades the Italian payments processor to underperform from neutral, citing unjustified recent outperformance amid ongoing growth headwinds from bank contract losses and risks to 2028 targets.
• Intertek shares drop as much as 3.9% after the testing and certification firm said after markets closed on Friday that it rejected the 5,400 pence per share bid from EQT, stating it “fundamentally undervalues” the company and its prospects.
• Seraphim Space Investment Trust shares fall as much as 16% in London trading after it announced plans to raise funds by issuing shares.

Asian equities also push higher, with Taiex and Kospi leading winners as chipmakers rally. Hong Kong and mainland China indexes are regional laggards. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.7%, the most since April 14. Taiwan’s Taiex index was among best performers in the region, led by a surge in TSMC to a record. Markets in Vietnam and New Zealand were closed for holidays. Asian companies are also heading into the busiest week of the earnings season, offering investors a glimpse of how the Iran war has impacted business. In Japan, investors are keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on Tuesday. The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

“Investors are paying attention to the Asia tech sector, especially with a large amount of suppliers here,” Jasmine Duan, Asia senior investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Despite risks of overbuying in big tech names such as TSMC, “the earnings growth will digest the concern on this overcrowded trade.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2%. The Norwegian krone is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.6%. The Aussie and kiwi dollars also outperform.  The yen hovers around 159.20/USD and euro holds near 1.1730. Offshore yuan gets a boost from solid PBOC fixing.

In rates, treasuries trade slightly cheaper in early US trading, off session lows reached following slight gap lower at start of Asia session.  Treasury yields cheaper by as much as 1.5bp at long end with curve slightly steeper on the day, keeping spreads within 1bp of Friday’s closing levels. 10-year near 4.31% is ~1bp cheaper on the day, roughly in line with European counterparts. European government bonds also decline. Treasury auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note at 11:30am New York time and $70 billion 5-year at 1pm. WI 2-year yield near 3.79% is ~15bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 1.8bp

In commodities, oil is higher with the Strait of Hormuz almost impassable after efforts to resume talks to end the Iran war stalled. Brent crude futures rise over 2% and briefly topped $108 a barrel after efforts to resume US-Iran talks faltered over the weekend. Precious metals are little changed while Bitcoin falls 0.5%.

Today's US economic data calendar slate is light - we only get the April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am - ahead of a heavy central bank schedule where major CBs are expected to hold ahead of the market pricing changes in June

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.31%
• VIX +0.4 points at 19.07
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1193.96
• euro +0.2% at $1.1746
• WTI crude +2.2% at $96.51/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran has offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade on the country and an end to the war, while proposing that discussions on the larger question of its nuclear program would come in a later phase. Trump is unlikely to accept the offer. AP
• Oil rose as Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Russia for talks with Vladimir Putin, while traders shrugged off an Axios report of a potential interim Hormuz deal. BBG
• The US Secret Service is at risk of not being not being able to pay its employees by the end of the week, suggesting that a shutdown nears its breaking point: Semafor
• Kevin Warsh’s path to Fed chair cleared after GOP holdout Thom Tillis dropped his resistance, following the DOJ’s decision to end a criminal probe into Jerome Powell. A vote is set for Wednesday. BBG
• US drivers have started cutting back their spending at the pump in an attempt to blunt the impact of spiraling petrol prices triggered by the Iran war. Between February and March average petrol sales per station in the northeastern US fell 4.3 per cent in March, compared with 0.6 per cent growth in the same period last year, according to data from Upside, which tracks consumer spending at more than 23,000 petrol stations across the nation. FT
• With just over one-fourth of S&P 500 companies reporting results for the first quarter, Wall Street’s expectations for earnings suggest big U.S. companies are far healthier than wider economic concerns might indicate. WSJ
• DeepSeek is aggressively pitching low-priced-plans for its just-released flagship model, intensifying competition across a Chinese artificial intelligence industry trying to take on Silicon Valley’s best. BBG
• US State Department has reportedly ordered a global warning over alleged AI IP theft involving DeepSeek and other Chinese firms: Reuters
• Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus was blocked by China, a surprise move to unwind a deal that’s drawn fire for the leakage of technology to the US. BBG
• Profits at China's industrial firms grew at their quickest pace in half a year last month, adding to broader signs of ‌an uneven economic recovery in the first quarter as policymakers brace for the impact of the Middle East war. RTRS
• Japan is moving to tighten the criteria for submitting shareholder proposals, signalling a growing backlash from companies frustrated by intensifying pressure from activist investors calling ‌for change. RTRS
• The US and Japan plan a dual-use partnership to counter China in the drone market: Kyodo 

Middle East News

• Iran has communicated a three-stage negotiation process to the US through intermediaries, according to Al Mayadeen citing Iranian reports. The first stage would focus on ending the war and receiving guarantees to prevent recurrence. Second stage is to be focused on the Strait of Hormuz while the third stage would lead to the nuclear issues. Axios later announced a similar report, adding that US President Trump is to hold a situation room meeting on Iran on Monday.
• US President Trump cancelled sending Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran, saying there would be “too much time wasted on travelling”. Trump said the US “has all the cards” and Iran “has none”, adding that “if they want to talk, all they have to do is call”. Trump later said the US would not travel “15, 16 hours” to meet “people nobody’s ever heard of”, adding that US envoys were not meeting Iran’s actual leader. Trump claimed Iran sent a “much better” offer within 10 minutes of him cancelling the envoys’ trip, but said Iran had offered “a lot but not enough”.
• US President Trump said Iran wants to talk and see if they can make a deal, US officials negotiating with Iran are dealing with the people who are in charge now. He also stated that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at resolving US demands, according to Reuters.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that discussions in Oman included focusing on ways to ensure the safe transit through Hormuz and that neighbours are the priority. He later stated in Russia, ahead of his meeting with Russian President Putin, that the visit to Islamabad was very good, in which conditions were reviewed for US-Iran talks to continue.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi described his Pakistan visit as “very fruitful” and said Iran had shared a “workable framework to permanently end the war.” According to reports citing Pakistani officials, Araghchi laid out Tehran's negotiating demands as well as its reservations about US demands. In other talks, IRNA reported that the FM will travel to Muscat and Moscow to hold bilateral conversations, discuss current developments in the region, and the latest situation regarding the war.
• A trilateral meeting with the US, Iran and Pakistan will be considered only after Pakistan meet with Araghchi, a meeting between the US and Iran may not take place until Monday, Axios reported. US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner is to hold separate talks with Pakistan on Sunday.
• Axios reported that a US official and a source said Ghalibaf grew frustrated with the infighting in the Iranian leadership after the previous round of talks, and even threatened to step aside. It still remains unclear if he is the lead Iranian negotiator.
• Iran is reportedly "discussing the uranium and nuclear issue with friends and allies and is open for discussion at the negotiating table.", Journalist Mallick reported. Full post:"To my understanding, While Iran has proposed a structured operational mechanism for Strait of Hormuz which would lead to cessation of hostilities, at the same time, contrary to reported, Iran is discussing the uranium and nuclear issue with friends and allies and is open for discussion at the negotiating table.".
• Hezbollah outlines that they will be keeping their weapons, and dismisses the prospect of direct talks with Israel regarding Lebanon.
• Iran's proposal regarding Hormuz may be rejected by Washington because it excludes nuclear discussions, Al Hadath reported citing regional officials.
• Senior Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that if Hezbollah continues its attacks against IDF soldiers, Israel will not be able to respond in a measured manner, Journalist Stein reported citing sources.
• Israeli military reported hostile aircraft infiltration sirens sounded in northern Israel communities.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the visit to Islamabad was very good, in which conditions were reviewed for US-Iran talks to continue. Agreement has been made between Iran and Oman to continue consultations at an expert level.
• Israeli occupation forces are shelling Gaza beaches from the sea, according to Al Jazeer sources.
• Iran gave the US a new proposal through Pakistani mediators for reaching a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war however postponing nuclear talks, Axios reported citing sources. US President Trump to hold a situation room meeting on Iran on Monday.
• Israeli artillery shelling targets eastern Gaza City, Al Mayadeen reported.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that discussions in Oman included focusing on ways to ensure the safe transit through Hormuz and that neighbours are the priority.
• Lack of trust between Washington and Tehran hinders resumption of negotiations, Pakistani source tells Asharq.
• Iranian F-5 fighter jet reportedly breaches US air defences and hits a US military base in Kuwait, according to Press TV.
• US CENTCOM announces that the US has directed 38 ships to turn around or return to post since the start of the blockade.
• UKMTO reported of an incident occurring 6NM northeast of Somalia, where unknown persons seized the cargo ship and diverted it into territorial waters.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks pointed to a broadly positive start of the week, mainly spurred by an Axios report detailing that Iran gave the US a new proposal, through Pakistani mediators, for reaching a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. It is a three-stage proposal, with the halting of the war and focus on the Strait of Hormuz highlighted as the key points before the third stage of nuclear issues. ASX 200 was the underperformer, being weighed on by losses in Energy and Utilities following Friday’s risk-on sentiment hitting energy prices. Among the weakness, Atlas Arteria outperformed after IFM investors offers to buy the Co. for AUD 4.75/security. Nikkei 225 initially traded with a lack of direction before being boosted following the Axios report. The index has regained the 60,000 handle and continued to gain towards 61,000. KOSPI was the clear outperformer as it tracks its peers’ stateside. This was spearheaded by Intel (INTC) after the Co. reported positive Q1 earnings and beat forecasts. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded with mild gains. Chips across Asia are performing well, with China’s SMIC also benefiting from the announcement that DeepSeek’s V4 is adapted to run on Huawei chips.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Coincident Index Final (Feb) 116.3 (Prev. 117.9).
• Japanese Leading Economic Index Final (Feb) 113.3 vs. Exp. 112.4 (Prev. 112.1).
• Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (Mar) Y/Y 15.5% (Prev. 15.2%).

European bourses are mostly firmer this morning, albeit modestly so. The DAX 40 (+0.4%) leads vs peers, whilst the AEX (-0.3%) lags a touch. European sectors opened with a positive bias, but the leaderboard now looks mixed. Topping the pile is Retail, led by Adidas, +1.6%, where two runners wore its new ultra-light racing shoe to break the two-hour barrier at the 2026 London Marathon. Also performing well is the Energy sector, with oil benchmarks firmer on the day. At the bottom of the pile are the consumer-sensitive Optimised Personal Care and Food Beverage & Tobacco

Top European News

• ECB SAFE Survey: Firms reported further net tightening of bank loan interest rates and other loan conditions related to price and non-price factors. Firms reported further net tightening of bank loan interest rates and other loan conditions related to price and non-price factors. Financing needs remained stable, but availability of bank loans deteriorated marginally. Firms expected stronger increases in selling prices and non-labour input costs, whereas wage expectations moderated slightly. Short-term inflation expectations increased markedly, with medium-term inflation expectations remaining stable.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to deliver speeches to set out a responsible plan to see households and businesses through the Iran war fallout, according to the FT citing sources; the Chancellor will also set out measures in June to boost growth.
• UK ministers have voiced concerns about the damage to the tech sector and its alliance with the US as the PM plans for closer relations with the EU, FT reported citing sources.

Central Banks

• BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida to join policy meeting by phone due to health reasons.
• Swiss Sight Deposits (CHF) (w/e Apr 24th): total 455.91bln (prev. 453.55bln), of domestic banks 433.01bln (prev. 433.27bln).

Trade/Tariffs

• India and New Zealand have signed a FTA, lowering and eliminating tariffs across a range of goods, and granting 100% duty-free access for Indian exporters.
• China's Commerce Ministry is to hold a press conference on Thursday 30th at 08:00BST/03:00EDT to brief on recent key trade and commerce developments.
• China's MOFCOM issues a statement on the EU Industrial Accelerator Act, calling it discriminative for trade; will closely monitor and engage in dialogue with the EU but threatens countermeasures if the EU presses ahead.

Geopolitics

• A drone has hit the transportation department of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia plant, according to reported.
• Iranian FM Araghchi has arrived in Russia ahead of his meeting with Russian President Putin, Tasnim reported.
• North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un said that North Korea will continue to support Russia, KCNA reported.
• Russia's Foreign Minister reportedly said Russia is willing to hold talks with the US on a Ukraine settlement.

FX

• FX shows a risk-on picture not seen across other asset classes, in a move seemingly driven by a weaker greenback, with antipodeans and generally high-beta FX outperforming.
• DXY is lower by 0.2%, well off highs of 99.34 made at the Asia re-open and below both 100 and 200 DMAs, which offered support last week. This comes as Axios reported that Iran gave the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, news which has helped the risk complex. The plan calls for an extension of the ceasefire so parties can work on a three-stage plan, with nuclear negotiations the final stage. The report noted that Pakistani mediators had given the proposal to the US, though it was unclear if the US would cooperate. The US-specific docket is light ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with just 2 and 5yr supply, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing scheduled.
• Away from geopolitics, and perhaps another story which has offered the USD: Senator Tillis said he was dropping his decision to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair following the DoJ's decision to drop the criminal case against Fed Chair Powell. The vote on Warsh's confirmation is scheduled for 29th April.
• Antipodeans outperform, the cross is choppy and around the unchanged mark as both currencies benefit against the weaker Buck following that Axios report. NZD/USD, AUD/USD +0.6%/+0.5%. CAD also does well, helped by the risk environment alongside Crude benchmarks, which are firmer on the session.
• EUR/GBP is a touch firmer after it bounced off a 0.8654 low to try to recoup last week's modest losses following strong UK data. Both currencies look to expected holds from the ECB and BoE. In the UK, political angst persists, with the Daily Mail reporting that former Deputy PM Rayner told Labour MPs the time to oust the PM was “now or never”.

Fixed Income

• A softer start to the week, as energy upside lifts yields and weighs on fixed benchmarks. However, the magnitude of fixed action is relatively limited amid mixed geopolitical reporting, awaiting supply and the week's packed central bank agenda, which includes the BoE, ECB & Fed.
• USTs as low as 111-01, with downside of 5+ ticks at most. If the move extends, we look to 110-27+ and 110-26+ from Friday and Thursday, before attention then turns to 110-22+, 110-17+ and the 110-16 MTD low from earlier in April. The US agenda is, aside from geopolitical updates, headlined by 2yr & 5yr note supply ahead of Wednesday's Fed.
• Gilts gapped lower by 23 ticks and then slipped another 12 to an 87.13 low. Modestly underperforming peers, given the above. Elsewhere for the UK, we count down to Thursday's BoE, a hold is expected and priced, with attention on any clues via the statement, forecasts, or individual Committee members' remarks as to when a move might occur. Currently, markets imply 25bps hikes in July (+30bps) and December (+54bps).
• Bunds in-fitting with the above. Somewhere between USTs and Gilts in magnitude. As low as 125.48, posting losses of 17 ticks at most. Driven by the above geopolitical developments. No move to a weak GfK survey for May, as consumer sentiment was hit again by the Middle East conflict, resulting in a sharp decrease in income expectations and the 12-month view moved to a level similar to April 2022, at the start of the Ukraine conflict.
• China delays foreign debt sales with USD 100bln of bonds due, Bloomberg reported.
• EU sells EUR 6bln vs exp. EUR 7bln 2.50% 2031, 3.25% 2036, and 4.00% 2044 Bonds.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are both firmer this morning by circa. 2.6%, as the complex digests several geopolitical updates, with the overarching theme overall a lack of progress between US-Iran.
• To recap, US President Trump cancelled his envoy’s trip to Pakistan, suggesting that it would be a waste of time. He claimed that Iran sent a “much better” offer within 10 minutes of him cancelling the trip, but it was “not enough”. Since, Axios reported that Iran had communicated a three-stage negotiation process to the US through intermediaries. A first stage would involve securing guarantees to prevent another war, with the next stage to focus on the Strait and then finally on nuclear issues. Given that this proposal pushes the nuclear issue to the back of the agenda, it is not likely that the US will accept the proposal. The focus ahead will be on Trump, who is reportedly to hold a situation room meeting on Iran.
• WTI and Brent climbed higher throughout the European morning; Brent Jun’26 sits at the upper end of a USD 106.19/bbl to USD 108.24/bbl range, with WTI Jun’26 also at highs within a USD 94.99/bbl to USD 96.87/bbl band. Both contracts jumped at the open as markets digested Trump’s cancellation of talks, but then slipped on the aforementioned Axios report. The proposal indicates some openness to negotiations, but given that the nuclear issue has been pushed to the back of the agenda, it is unlikely to be accepted by the US. A factor which likely explains the complete reversal of the initial downside following the report.
• Spot gold is essentially flat this morning and currently trades within a USD 4,672-4,729/oz range. It currently oscillates around its 21 DMA (4,718/oz), with the high of the day a touch short of its 100 DMA (4,746/oz). Elsewhere, base metals hold a slight negative bias, but with slight strength in Aluminium prices, given the elongated disruption of supplies from the Middle East region. As for 3M LME Copper, it is currently a little lower within a USD 13,259-13,376.03/t range.
• Iran suspends exports of steel slabs and sheets until 30th May, Iranian media reported.
• Citi raises its base case average Brent price forecasts to USD 110/bbl for Q2, USD 95/bbl for Q3, USD 80/bbl for Q4. Flows could easily remain disrupted through the end of June, which could see Brent reach USD 150/bbl.
• Goldman Sachs raises its Brent forecast to USD 100/bbl this quarter and USD 90/bbl in Q4, due to prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and extreme inventory draws.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan has secured stable oil supply into next year, closely watching the Middle East impact on the economy.

US Event Calendar

• 10:30 am: United States Apr Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 0.8, prior -0.2

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Tomorrow marks exactly two months since the strikes on Iran began. While there is currently a rolling, open ended ceasefire that started on 8 April, the risk of it collapsing at any point remains real. Just as the weekend news looked like it was leaning negatively though, last night reports came through that Iran have offered the US a fresh proposal to reopen the strait and end the war. However as Axios and others reported, this proposal postpones talks on nuclear capabilities. So it’s unclear whether the US Administration would tolerate that but for now the market is trading better than it might have done to start the week. This fresh development follows President Trump cancelling a planned visit to Islamabad by envoys Kushner and Witkoff, saying that the Iranians had “offered a lot, but not enough.” Iranian President Pezeshkian, meanwhile, said Iran would not agree to “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” The coming week will no doubt bring further developments, though predicting them is close to impossible. When the conflict began more than eight weeks ago, I would have expected it to be comfortably over by now, with markets having followed the usual playbook and fully recovered. The market reaction has largely played out, but for the wrong reasons: the conflict is not over. That said, markets still appear to price in a meaningful chance that it will be resolved relatively soon. Polymarket, for example, suggests a 56% probability of traffic returning to normal by 30 June, although this briefly reached 91% ten days ago when it appeared that Iran was reopening the Strait.

In other news, one notable development yesterday was Senator Thom Tillis’s decision to lift his block on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Fed. Tillis said he was satisfied with the Department of Justice’s decision late last week to drop its investigation into the Fed refurbishment. There had been some concern on Saturday that the DoJ had left the door open to reopening the probe at a later stage, which might not have been sufficient to clear the way. However, Tillis indicated that he had received assurances that gave him enough comfort to remove his block.

In terms of overnight markets, Brent crude is up +1.22%, marking the sixth consecutive session of gains, trading at $106.61 per barrel, following the weekend news. However regional equities are strong with the KOSPI (+2.57%) now at +57.6% YTD. The Nikkei (+1.88%) is also strong. Other markets are a bit more subdued with the Hang Seng (+0.15%), the CSI (+0.21%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) slightly higher but with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.14%) dipping. S&P 500 (+0.13%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) and STOXX (+0.33%) futures are edging higher. both trading in positive territory. Meanwhile, 10-year USTs have risen by +1.9bps, to 4.32% as we go to print.  

Looking ahead, with central bank meetings for every G7 country this week — alongside 44% of the S&P 500 reporting by market capitalisation, including five of the Mag 7 — it is shaping up to be a blockbuster week, even before factoring in ongoing Iranian war newsflow.

The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow, followed by the Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Thursday then brings decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. All are expected to remain on hold, but the key question will be how each central bank’s reaction function is shaped by the conflict and the associated stagflation risks. Our new "Rate Check" podcast previews the week's meetings with various guests from our research department. Click here for more on how to find it 

From an earnings perspective, 22% of S&P 500 market capitalisation — across just four companies — reports after the close on Wednesday, when Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta release their Q1 results. Apple follows on Thursday.

Turning to the Fed meeting mid week, our economists’ base case is that any meaningful change in guidance is deferred until June. That said, there is a tangible risk that communication skews modestly hawkish — either through subtle language tweaks around “additional policy adjustments” or via Chair Powell signalling a more symmetrical assessment of risks to the dual mandate. An explicit acknowledgement that risks to price stability and employment are now more evenly balanced would likely be interpreted as a marginally less accommodative stance.

Geopolitics will loom large in Powell’s press conference, given developments in the Middle East. With uncertainty still elevated, Powell is likely to emphasise that policymakers cannot yet assess the precise implications for growth or inflation. However, he may also note that persistently high oil prices raise the risk of inflation becoming more entrenched over time. Overall, the tone should be consistent with a Fed prepared to remain on the sidelines for a while longer.

Alongside the meeting, Thursday’s personal income and spending report — and particularly core PCE — will be equally important. Income is expected to rebound by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline, while consumption is forecast to rise 0.5%. DB expects the core PCE deflator to increase by 0.25% month on month, lifting the year on year rate to around 3.13%. If realised, Q1 core PCE inflation will average just above 3.0%, marking five years since the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge last ran at or below its 2% target. Our latest projections see core CPI and core PCE at 2.7% and 2.9% respectively by Q4 2026, highlighting how recent energy related shocks continue to complicate the path back to target.

Other data ahead of the meeting are unlikely to materially alter the Fed’s decision. Consumer confidence tomorrow is expected to fall to 88.8 from 91.9, reflecting heightened geopolitical concerns. More important than the headline will be the “jobs plentiful” and “jobs hard to get” components, which historically track movements in the unemployment rate and offer insight into perceived labour market momentum.

Wednesday brings a cluster of releases that will refine expectations for Thursday’s advance Q1 GDP estimate. Housing starts are forecast to rise to 1.425 million from 1.35 million, with permits edging up to 1.390 million. Durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.4% for the headline, but ex transportation and core orders are projected to rise 0.5%, pointing to continued strength in capital investment. Together with the advance goods trade balance, these data frame our economists’ 2.8% annualised forecast for Q1 real GDP — a sharp rebound from 0.5% in Q4.

Thursday’s data batch is the most consequential of the week, even beyond core PCE. While DB still expects 2.8% inflation adjusted growth for Q1 GDP, the composition has shifted meaningfully. Consumer spending is forecast to contribute 1.2pp, down from 1.9pp in Q4, while non residential fixed investment accelerates sharply to 7.5%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — our preferred measure of underlying demand — are projected to edge up to 2.0%. Risks to the headline GDP number appear broadly balanced, particularly given volatility in trade flows.

Elsewhere on Thursday we see the employment cost index and the Chicago PMI. Friday kicks off May with the ISM manufacturing index and vehicle sales. While business surveys may not yet fully reflect recent war developments, they should provide early signals on whether firms share markets’ confidence that the conflict will have limited and temporary economic effects. Last week’s flash PMI suggested US businesses remain far more confident on this front than their European counterparts.

In Europe, attention turns to preliminary April CPI prints, with Germany and Spain reporting first on Wednesday and the broader euro area numbers on Thursday, alongside advance Q1 GDP. Ahead of that, Tuesday brings the ECB’s consumer expectations and bank lending surveys.

In Japan, key releases include April Tokyo CPI on Friday and March activity data on Thursday, while China sees its official April PMIs on Thursday, following industrial profits for March earlier in the week. As usual, the full day by day calendar appears at the end.

Recapping last week now and markets lost their momentum as concern rose about an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, there was more of a risk-on move into the weekend, driven by the news that Iran’s foreign minister was heading to Islamabad, and then that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were going from the US side. So that raised hopes that some kind of de-escalation pathway might still be open. Ultimately that proved premature as we found out over the weekend. The positive mood at the very end of the week was cemented after it was announced that the US Department of Justice were dropping the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, which raised expectations that Kevin Warsh would be confirmed on time as the new Fed Chair.  

Yet despite that more optimistic tone into the weekend, Brent crude oil still rose +16.54% last week (+0.25% Friday) to $105.33/bbl. That came as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, adding to fears about longer-term supply disruption. And it was clear that investors were pricing in a prolonged period of higher oil prices, as the 6-month Brent future also moved up +8.88% last week (-0.32% Friday) to $86.46/bbl.
For markets, those oil moves led to growing expectations of an extended stagflationary shock. Indeed, that was clear from inflation expectations, which moved up again in response. For instance, the US 1yr inflation swap rose +29bps last week to 3.378%, and the Eurozone inflation swap was up +47bps to 3.44%. And in turn, that led investors to price in a more hawkish response from central banks. For instance, for the ECB the probability of a hike by the June meeting rose from 62% to 82%. Meanwhile, the probability of a Fed cut by the December meeting had fallen from 61% to just 23% by Thursday, before rising back up to 46% on Friday on news of the DoJ probe into Powell being dropped, which raised expectations that a Warsh-led Fed could still deliver easing this year.

With markets pricing in a bigger stagflationary shock and a more hawkish response across most of the week, it was a tough backdrop for bonds. So the 10yr bund yield rose +3.4bps last week (-1.5bps Friday) to 2.99%, and the 10yr Treasury yield was up +5.2bps last week (-2.4bps Friday) to 4.30%. In Japan, the moves were relatively smaller, but even there the 10yr yield was up +1.5bps last week (+1.0bps Friday) to 2.44%.  

For equities, there was a more divergent performance by region. In the US, the S&P 500 posted a 4th consecutive weekly gain to hit a new record, rising +0.55% last week (+0.80% Friday). Indeed, the last time the S&P posted four consecutive weekly gains was back in October 2024. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index continued its relentless rally, posting a record 18th consecutive daily gain on Friday, with a rise of +10.02% last week, including +4.32% on Friday after strong results from Intel. Japan’s Nikkei also advanced +2.12% (+0.97% Friday). But in Europe, the STOXX 600 fell -2.54% last week (-0.58% Friday), reflecting the region’s greater exposure to an energy shock that was also visible in the weak April flash PMIs.

Finally in credit, there was a mixed performance last week amidst the various headlines. In the US, IG spreads were flat, but HY spreads widened +6bps. Conversely in Europe, IG spreads widened +2bps, but HY spreads tightened -10bps.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 08:34

Israel Bombs Deep Into Lebanon For First Time Of 3-Week Ceasefire

There's supposed to be a 3-week Lebanon ceasefire in effect, but that increasingly appears something merely on paper or in name only, as Israel has stepped up and expanded its attacks on Lebanon - now for the first time of the ceasefire including strikes on the far away Beqaa Valley.

"The IDF says it has launched a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in the Beqaa Valley and several areas of southern Lebanon," Israeli media confirms Monday. "The strikes come following repeated Hezbollah attacks on IDF troops and Israel during the ceasefire, including a deadly drone attack yesterday," Times of Israel says.

The fresh reporting emphasizes that "Israel has not struck in Lebanon’s eastern Beqaa Valley in some three weeks."

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun via aawsat

The IDF says its response was necessary as it has been Hezbollah breaking the ceasefire with attacks on Israeli ground forces, but Hezbollah has justified that these troops occupy sovereign Lebanese territory and so are fair game to be targeted.

It was only late last week that President Trump publicly announced a breakthrough Lebanon ceasefire deal of three weeks, saying it is necessary also to "protect" Lebanon "from Hezbollah".

But Hezbollah itself has not participated in the Washington-backed talks between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, seeing in it a deceitful plan to put more distance between the Iran-backed paramilitary group and the Lebanese nation and people.

In the meantime, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun has told a meeting of representatives from villages in southern Lebanon that negotiating with Israel "is not betrayal" - but is necessary for ensuring peace and stability.

The president, a Maronite Catholic, stated instead that "Betrayal is carried out by those who take their country to war to serve foreign interests."

Aoun said: "How long will the people of the south continue to pay the price for the wars of others on our land? If the war were for Lebanon, we would support it - but when its purpose is to serve the interests of others, I reject the war entirely."

The remarks appeared a response to Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem's own Monday statement reiterating that the group would not give up its weapons and blasting deal-making with Israel as a "grave sin". After all, while the IDF obliterates entire towns and villages in the south, Hezbollah's supporters argue there's no one to protect them, and certainly the Lebanese Army won't step up.

Israel is exporting its Gaza model to Lebanon.
Demolition by demolition, the Israeli military is changing the face of southern Lebanon, razing towns and villages to create a buffer zone. Israeli officials say it’s necessary to protect its residents from Hezbollah threats. pic.twitter.com/64qAebvKOl

— Jeremy Diamond (@JDiamond1) April 24, 2026

Qassem further accused some politicians in in Lebanon of seeking to "reap gains at the expense of the destruction" of the country.

The war goes back to the wake of Oct.7, 2023 and Gaza war. But Hezbollah's entry was also renewed following Trump's Operation Epic Fury. So Hezbollah has successively joined the fight both related to the Palestinian and the Iranians. Israel has unleashed a series of massive bombing waves on the capital Beirut, and many ordinary Lebanese have chaffed at being so quickly dragged into a broader regional war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 08:30

Beijing Abruptly Blocks Meta's $2BN Takeover Deal Of Manus AI In Move That Will "Chill" China AI Sector

With just weeks to go before the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, China's National Development and Reform Commission unexpectedly blocked Meta Platforms' acquisition of the AI-agent startup Manus on Monday morning, signaling that Beijing has no problem with tightening control over high-value AI assets in a move that could have a profound chilling effect on Chinese M&A activity for years. 

According to the FT, the decision marks an extraordinary late-stage intervention by Beijing, involving two non-Chinese companies. Meta had already begun to integrate software from Manus, which was founded in China but relocated to Singapore last year.

The announcement comes ahead of an expected summit next month between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, when the leaders will address longstanding tensions over trade.

Manus’s founders got their start in China but relocated their headquarters and key staff to Singapore in 2025. It wasn’t clear, when the deal took place, whether Beijing would exert its authority on a transaction that technically took place beyond its borders.

China’s powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday it would prohibit “foreign investment” in Manus and in accordance with the law has “required the relevant parties to cancel the acquisition transaction”.  Regulators began investigating in January whether China’s investment rules had been violated by Silicon Valley-based Meta’s acquisition of Manus, whose autonomous AI tools can carry out complex tasks.

Manus allows users to build and run personal AI “agents” that are capable of independently executing complex tasks, managing files and creating software. The original creator of the company, AI start-up Butterfly Effect, was founded in China in 2022. Last year, Butterfly Effect moved its headquarters and core team to Singapore following a funding round led by top US venture capital firm Benchmark Capital.

The Manus app was an early forerunner of OpenClaw, which has taken both Silicon Valley and China by storm this year. Both go beyond the likes of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which largely focuses on processing information and answering questions.

Within months, Meta swooped in to buy the AI app, as part of the parent of Instagram and WhatsApp’s costly efforts to catch up with OpenAI and Google in AI. The $2bn deal was announced in December and closed earlier this year.

The current listing for what is described as “Manus from Meta” on Apple’s App Store still describes Butterfly Effect’s Singaporean entity as the software’s developer. 

It was unclear how the acquisition could be unwound at such a late stage, and a person briefed on Beijing’s decision told the FT the announcement could be intended primarily as a warning for similar deals in the future. The person said the gesture was “pretty harsh and it carries a strong intention to stop follow-on deals [like Manus]. In reality, it’s hard to unwind a done deal, so it is more about verbal warnings on similar deals and [leverage] building before the Xi-Trump summit”.

To undo the deal at this stage, Meta could have to spin off its acquisition to a new buyer, sell it back to its former investors or find new backers. Any such process would be complex, as Meta has already integrated Manus into some of its tools, the FT has reported.

“The Manus block is a clarifying moment,” said Ke Yan, a tech analyst with DZT Research based in Singapore. “Manus was Singapore-incorporated with founders based here, and it still got pulled back. Beijing’s signal is that what matters isn’t where the legal entity sits.”

A Meta spokesperson said: “The transaction complied fully with applicable law. We anticipate an appropriate resolution to the inquiry.”

Multiple Chinese regulators have reviewed the transaction, including the NDRC, the commerce ministry and China’s antitrust watchdog, the FT reported this month. Beijing earlier branded the acquisition a “conspiratorial” attempt to hollow out the country’s technology base.

Officials had been examining the deal using a range of tools, from export control rules to foreign investment and competition laws, the people said. In March, Beijing restricted two co-founders of Manus from leaving the country as the deal was reviewed.

Manus describes itself as an “action engine” that can “extend your human reach”. It launched in March 2025, just two months after DeepSeek’s debut of a powerful open-source model capable of “reasoning” sparked a panic among US tech investors about Chinese AI advances.

The Manus acquisition represents the second major deal in which Beijing has intervened, following the sale by CK Hutchison of 43 global ports, originally including two in Panama, to a BlackRock-backed consortium. In that case, authorities pushed for the acquiring party to include a Chinese group as well, although that deal has not yet closed.

The ruling is likely to send a chill through China’s burgeoning AI sector, and emerged weeks before a high-profile summit between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Beijing has tightened scrutiny of key industry firms in the wake of the deal, which has been largely completed. Initially hailed as a template for startups with global aspirations, critics have since lamented the loss of valuable technology to a geopolitical rival.

The decree on Manus may deal a setback to Meta as it looks to compete in AI against rivals from Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google to OpenAI and Anthropic PBC. Manus was supposed to help Meta — which had been playing catchup — leapfrog into a leading position in the hot sphere of AI agents, or services that use artificial intelligence to execute tasks.

Beijing and Washington are jockeying for leverage ahead of their historic meeting in May. As rivalry heats up in the AI space, Xi is trying to both fence off China’s top technology and talent from the US with the Manus move, while underscoring his growing confidence in homegrown chips, Bloomberg reported.

The latter point was on display last week when DeepSeek unveiled its V4 model that boasts deeper synergy with Huawei Technologies Co. chips. That high-profile release looked timed to project confidence ahead of Trump’s visit.

“Beijing likely views this move as a justified tit-for-tat and mirroring of the export controls, investment restrictions, and counter-tech transfer probes by American authorities over the years,” said Brian Wong, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong.

Agencies including the National Development and Reform Commission have told key AI firms including Moonshot AI and Stepfun in recent weeks they should reject capital of US origin in funding rounds unless explicitly approved, Bloomberg News reported last week. Regulators have also decided on similar restrictions for ByteDance Ltd., the owner of TikTok and the most valuable startup in the country.

Those restrictions risk further isolating China’s recovering tech sector from the venture backing that has underpinned it for two decades, much of which was sourced from American pensions and endowments. It follows Beijing’s decision to restrict “red chips” — a type of Chinese company incorporated overseas — from seeking initial public offerings in Hong Kong, threatening to upend a decades-old playbook that helped Chinese companies tap foreign capital by floating overseas.

The overarching intent of the restrictions is to prevent US investors from taking stakes in sensitive sectors where national security is a priority. The twin moves suggest that regulators are worried about a leakage of homegrown technology abroad as Chinese-founded startups and companies explore international opportunities. In the wake of the Manus acquisition, many academics decried the loss of a valuable asset to the US. Many worried that the deal would encourage other startups to follow suit.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 08:20