The key reports this week are August New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q2 GDP, and Personal Income and Outlays for August.

For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, September 22nd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, September 23rd -----
10:00 AM: the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for September.

----- Wednesday, September 24th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 653 thousand SAAR, up from 652 thousand in July.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, September 25th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 234 thousand from 231 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of 3.3%.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.98 million SAAR, down from 4.01 million in July.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report August sales of 3.93 million SAAR.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September. 

----- Friday, September 26th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 55.4.

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• How to Build a Million-Dollar Future for Your Kids:  Setting your child up for life doesn’t require a windfall — just time, consistency and a willingness to think beyond bonds and birthday cards. Parents like to tell their children that hard work and ambition will carry them far, and sometimes that’s true. But a well-structured investment account may offer a more reliable path to prosperity than sheer determination. (Bloomberg Wealth)

• The Last Days Of Social Media Social media promised connection, but it has delivered exhaustion. (NOEMA) see also ‘You want to talk about a world of lies?’ Teaching philosophy in prison: My class of college students and inmates can get loud and rowdy, with everyone engaged. This is what philosophy should look like. (The Guardian)

• What Exactly Are A.I. Companies Trying to Build? Here’s a Guide. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta and OpenAI plan to spend at least $325 billion by the end of the year in pursuit of A.I. We explain why they’re doing it. (New York Times)

• 6 Economic Lessons from Books About Power, Propaganda, and Decline: What Tolkien, Canetti, Girard and more can teach us about discord, scapegoats, and the test of institutions. (Kyla’s Newsletter)

• When should young athletes specialize in a sport? This story may help you decide: Researchers say that specializing early — defined as training year-round before the age of 12 — can increase the risk factor for injury and hinder skill development. It can also hamper creativity and problem-solving. (New York Times)

• How Climate Scientists Saw the Future Before It Arrived: Over the past 60 years, scientists have largely succeeded in building a computer model of Earth to see what the future holds. One of the most ambitious projects humankind has ever undertaken has now reached a critical moment. (Quanta Magazine)

• Magical systems thinking: Systems thinking promises to give us a toolkit to design complex systems that work from the ground up. It fails because it ignores an important fact: systems fight back. (Works in Progress)

• Inside the Fight for Texas’s Most Precious Resource: Water Elected leaders, rich investors, and small-town residents are stumbling over the same question: Who owns the state’s water? (Texas Monthly)

• Signs of life on Mars are absolutely no longer a fringe theory: We Are Not Low Creatures: An arrow-shaped rock sitting at the bottom of an ancient dry riverbed on Mars has spots that resemble microbial leftovers — a possible sign that life once existed on the planet. Unlike Earth, where plate tectonics continually rebury the planet and new life muddies evidence of the old, the record on Mars would be preserved unblemished in ice, “a planetary museum for the origins of life” (The Intrinsic Perspective)

• How Sydney Sweeney Became the Most Talked-About Woman in Hollywood: The 27-year-old actress has charted an enviable career path by outworking her peers and throwing her name behind everything from blockbuster rom-coms to soap made from her own bathwater—and yes, those jeans. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jaime Magyera, Head of U.S. Wealth & Retirement Business at BlackRock. She has driven the firms adoption of alternatives as a fast growing part of the Blackrock platform for advisors and RIAs. The firm manages over $11 trillion in client assets, and Magyera’s a Wealth and Retirement divisions are a substantial portion of that.

 

AI Has Moved From a Niche Sector to the Primary Driver of All VC Investment

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

'Human Composting' Now Legal In New Jersey

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

In New Jersey, even the dead are being drafted into the climate agenda.

Governor Phil Murphy (D) signed a bill into law on September 11 legalizing “natural organic reduction,” better known as human composting.

The legislation “[a]llows for natural organic reduction and controlled supervised decomposition of human remains.”

The Garden State is now the 14th state to sanction the controlled decomposition of human bodies into soil.

Proponents of the bill justify the macabre practice because the state is “running out of space.”

“They explained it to me and I was like—OK, the most important takeaway is it gives everybody another dignified avenue to take of their loved one’s remains,” said Hudson County Assemblyman Julio Marenco, who championed the bill.

“In New Jersey, we are one of the biggest markets available to them. And also because we’re so densely populated, a state that is running out of space.”

Governor Murphy’s office said that “by establishing regulated and supervised processes, human remains composting provides New Jersey families a respective and environmentally conscious end-of-life option.”

Turning Bodies Into Dirt

The process is as eerie as it sounds: a human corpse placed in a steel vessel, covered with straw, wood chips, or alfalfa, and sealed inside while warm air circulates.

Over the next 45 to 60 days, the body decomposes into a pile of what promoters call “nutrient-rich soil.”

Families can then choose whether to scatter it like ashes, dump it in a garden, or use it to feed a houseplant.

This isn’t metaphor.

This is literally grinding down the human body until it’s indistinguishable from fertilizer.

‘Green’ Death as Climate Policy

New Jersey’s new law is not just about death care—it’s about politics.

Supporters frame human composting as an “eco-friendly” burial option, claiming it cuts back on carbon emissions, reduces cemetery land use, and avoids embalming chemicals.

New York made this connection explicit when it legalized human composting in 2022, tying it to the state’s carbon elimination goals of cutting emissions by 2050.

The same rationale is spreading nationwide.

Climate activists now argue that decomposing bodies in compost piles is a necessary step in “saving the planet.”

Funeral industry groups have begun marketing it as a guilt-free alternative for families who want to avoid the supposedly destructive footprint of traditional burials or cremation.

A Disturbing Trend

There’s a macabre irony here.

What was once reserved for trash heaps, barnyard animals, and yard waste is now being elevated as a “sustainable” future for human remains.

Death itself is being industrialized under the banner of environmentalism.

Proponents describe it in soothing terms—“gentle transformation,” “nutrient-rich soil,” “life from death.”

But strip away the marketing gloss, and human composting looks less like reverence for the dead and more like commodification of the body.

Religious & Ethical Concerns

Many religious leaders condemn the practice as a degradation of human dignity, incompatible with traditions that view the body as sacred.

Opponents warn that reducing humans to fertilizer treats the body as raw material rather than a vessel worthy of respect in death.

The Archdiocese of Newark released a statement in opposition of the new law:

“The Catholic Church does not support human composting because the practice does not respect the human body in a manner consistent with our faith or reflect our hope in the resurrection,” the statement read.

Yet despite deep ethical objections, the trend is accelerating.

Washington legalized the practice in 2019.

Now, in just six years, 14 states have followed: Colorado, Oregon, Vermont, California, New York, Nevada, Arizona, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Maine, Georgia, and now New Jersey.

Bottom Line

Behind the soft marketing lies something darker: a society that has begun to treat the dead as compost heaps in service to climate ideology.

Whether framed as “eco-friendly,” “cost-saving,” or “gentle,” the reality is that Americans are being conditioned to view human bodies as little more than fertilizer for the green agenda.

In the Garden State, even in death, people are now expected to “go green.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 18:25

Pakistan Extends Nuclear Umbrella Over Saudi Arabia In Defense Pact

Earlier this week Islamic countries Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact, greatly deepening and formalizing decades-long security partnership amid heightened regional tensions. Big on the minds of Gulf leaders is the long reach of Israel's military and intelligence, following last week's unprecedented strike on the capital of Qatar, which infuriated Arab leaders.

Late Thursday, Islamabad officials revealed that a significant part of the pact is the sharing of nuclear capabilities. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif made clear that Pakistan's nuclear capabilities would be extended to Saudi Arabia if necessary. Of course, on the other side of this there's India, which is going to be angry and alarmed.

SPA/AFP

It marks the first ever explicit confirmation that Pakistan has placed Saudi Arabia under its nuclear umbrella, again - significantly at a moment Gulf tensions are rising with nuclear-armed Israel.

The defense pact, which signed at a ceremony in Riyadh Wednesday, spells out that an attack on one country will be considered an attack on both, Asif confirmed.

Though they are proud to publicize the nuclear-sharing agreement, neither Pakistan nor Saudi Arabia has clarified whether the agreement includes actual access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

Such a scenario would be a game-changer in the region, which could possibly remove or take care of a key incentive for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham accords. All of this also signals Riyadh's desire to be less dependent on American security guarantees and protection in the region as Israel is increasingly seen as just doing what it wants.

Peace or 'normalization' with Israel is now off or at least on indefinite hold due to the Gaza crisis, but Saudi Arabia was said to be demanding Washington approval of a nuclear energy development program. On the Israel issue, the Saudis are trying to downplay the curious timing of the defense pact:

“This agreement is a culmination of years of discussions. This is not a response to specific countries or specific events but an institutionalization of longstanding and deep cooperation between our two countries,” a senior Saudi official told Reuters.

Pakistani officials have underscored Saudi Arabia's crucial role in its past nuclear program, as it offered "generous financial support" that helped sustain its nuclear development.

Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan have signed a mutual defense pact, pledging an attack on one would be considered as "an aggression against both." But ties with India complicate the agreement: pic.twitter.com/gkzSTsS7Zg

— DW News (@dwnews) September 18, 2025

This helped Pakistan's program and broader military endure periods of international sanctions, related to US punitive actions related to its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 18:00

ABC's 'The View' In Spotlight After Jimmy Kimmel Suspended, Says FCC Chairman

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr said in an interview that ABC’s “The View” could be investigated after Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show, “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”, was suspended earlier this week over remarks he made about the late Charlie Kirk.

“I would assume you could make the argument that ‘The View’ is a bona fide news show, but I’m not so sure about that,” Carr said on “The Scott Jennings Radio Show” on Sept. 18.

“And I think it’s worthwhile to have the FCC look into whether ‘The View’ and some of the programs that you have still qualify as bona fide news programs and therefore exempt from the equal opportunity regime that Congress has put in place.”

“The View,” a daytime talk show, is hosted by Whoopi Goldberg, Joy Behar, Sunny Hostin, Sara Haines, Alyssa Farah Griffin, and Ana Navarro.

ABC suspended “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” indefinitely after a group of ABC-affiliated stations said it would not air the show following comments Kimmel made about the assassination of Kirk, a conservative influencer, during an episode earlier this week.

Kimmel appeared to suggest that the suspected assassin, Tyler Robinson, was a supporter of President Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

Prosecutors have said that Robinson allegedly had left-wing and pro-transgender views.

Carr said that Kimmel was attempting to mislead the public with his on-air statements.

“The issue that arose here, where lots and lots of people were upset, was not a joke,” Carr told CNBC on Thursday.

“It was appearing to directly mislead the American public about a significant fact.”

Under the FCC’s jurisdiction, ABC, CBS, and NBC have special requirements to “operate within the public interest,” Carr said on Sept. 17.

“Broadcasters are different than any other form of communication.”

Carr said his agency had a strong case for holding Kimmel, ABC, and network parent Walt Disney Co. accountable for spreading false information.

Prominent Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, were critical of Kimmel being suspended by ABC and other broadcasters.

“After years of complaining about cancel culture, the current administration has taken it to a new and dangerous level by routinely threatening regulatory action against media companies unless they muzzle or fire reporters and commentators it doesn’t like,” Obama said in a post on X.

President Donald Trump said that Kimmel was removed partially because of a “lack of talent,” along with his recent comments on Kirk.

“Kimmel is not a talented person; he has very bad ratings more than anything else, and they should have fired him a long time ago,” Trump said during a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the UK on Sept. 18.

“You can call that free speech or not—he was fired for lack of talent.”

In posts on Truth Social this year, including one last month, Trump also suggested that the FCC go after the broadcasting licenses held by ABC and NBC.

Kimmel has not issued a public statement on his suspension, and it’s unclear whether he will return to the show he’s hosted since May 2002.

The Epoch Times has contacted ABC for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 17:40

ABC's 'The View' In Spotlight After Jimmy Kimmel Suspended, Says FCC Chairman

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr said in an interview that ABC’s “The View” could be investigated after Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show, “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”, was suspended earlier this week over remarks he made about the late Charlie Kirk.

“I would assume you could make the argument that ‘The View’ is a bona fide news show, but I’m not so sure about that,” Carr said on “The Scott Jennings Radio Show” on Sept. 18.

“And I think it’s worthwhile to have the FCC look into whether ‘The View’ and some of the programs that you have still qualify as bona fide news programs and therefore exempt from the equal opportunity regime that Congress has put in place.”

“The View,” a daytime talk show, is hosted by Whoopi Goldberg, Joy Behar, Sunny Hostin, Sara Haines, Alyssa Farah Griffin, and Ana Navarro.

ABC suspended “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” indefinitely after a group of ABC-affiliated stations said it would not air the show following comments Kimmel made about the assassination of Kirk, a conservative influencer, during an episode earlier this week.

Kimmel appeared to suggest that the suspected assassin, Tyler Robinson, was a supporter of President Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

Prosecutors have said that Robinson allegedly had left-wing and pro-transgender views.

Carr said that Kimmel was attempting to mislead the public with his on-air statements.

“The issue that arose here, where lots and lots of people were upset, was not a joke,” Carr told CNBC on Thursday.

“It was appearing to directly mislead the American public about a significant fact.”

Under the FCC’s jurisdiction, ABC, CBS, and NBC have special requirements to “operate within the public interest,” Carr said on Sept. 17.

“Broadcasters are different than any other form of communication.”

Carr said his agency had a strong case for holding Kimmel, ABC, and network parent Walt Disney Co. accountable for spreading false information.

Prominent Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, were critical of Kimmel being suspended by ABC and other broadcasters.

“After years of complaining about cancel culture, the current administration has taken it to a new and dangerous level by routinely threatening regulatory action against media companies unless they muzzle or fire reporters and commentators it doesn’t like,” Obama said in a post on X.

President Donald Trump said that Kimmel was removed partially because of a “lack of talent,” along with his recent comments on Kirk.

“Kimmel is not a talented person; he has very bad ratings more than anything else, and they should have fired him a long time ago,” Trump said during a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the UK on Sept. 18.

“You can call that free speech or not—he was fired for lack of talent.”

In posts on Truth Social this year, including one last month, Trump also suggested that the FCC go after the broadcasting licenses held by ABC and NBC.

Kimmel has not issued a public statement on his suspension, and it’s unclear whether he will return to the show he’s hosted since May 2002.

The Epoch Times has contacted ABC for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 17:40

Inside The CIA Unit Nobody Dares Talk About

In an eye-opening interview, former CIA officer turned whistleblower John Kiriakou pulled back the curtain on the agency's most elite fighting units, revealing how the United States’ intelligence agencies transformed overnight into a lethal force dedicated to hunting down radical Islamic terrorists after the September 11th terror attacks.

Speaking with host Dalton Fischer, Kiriakou delivered a no-nonsense account of CIA's most classified operators, the legendary Ground Branch warriors, Special Activities Division (SAD), and Counterterrorism Center (CTC), elite units filled with the U.S.’s finest Navy SEALs, Army Rangers, and Delta Force operators.

"These aren't your typical government bureaucrats," Kiriakou explained. "These are battle-tested heroes from our most elite military units, SEALs, Rangers, Delta Force, recruited because they have the skills and courage to do what others can't."

After 9/11, these elite soldiers were quickly brought into the CIA fold, many on loan from the military before becoming permanent assets in divisions like Global Services, Special Activities Division, and the hard-hitting Counterterrorism Center. Their mission? Simple and vital: eliminate threats to American lives and freedom (and whatever the fuck else the CIA has them doing). 

"What they do is so classified that even though everybody in the office knows what they're up to, nobody talks about it," Kiriakou revealed, describing the iron-clad secrecy surrounding these operations. Their job, the former CIA officer explained without hesitation, is "to neutralize anybody who poses a threat to the United States, its citizens, or its installations.”

While praising the critical importance of eliminating high-value terrorist targets like Osama bin Laden to protect American families, Kiriakou didn't shy away from addressing the tough questions about oversight and accountability.

"Mistakes happen in the fog of war," Kiriakou acknowledged, referencing troubling cases where intelligence errors led to innocent people being detained. "We're not lawless vigilantes. As American government officials, we're bound by the Constitution. That's what separates us from our enemies and makes America the beacon of freedom in the world.”

Kiriakou pinpointed the exact moment America's intelligence community transformed into a fighting force.

"The day after 9/11,” Kiriakou told Fischer, vividly recalling the pivotal moment when Cofer Black, then head of the Counterterrorism Center, stood before his team and declared the new reality.

"Today, we're at war, and we're all going to have to fight. Not all of us are going to come home," Black announced to a silent room, marking the beginning of the U.S.’s years-long campaign against al-Qaeda.

By Christmas 2001, Kiriakou explained that al-Qaeda’s core operations in Afghanistan was virtually destroyed, with only 25 active members remaining according to Senate intelligence.

Before 9/11, the Special Activities Division operated in the shadows within the CIA's Directorate of Operations, conducting missions that were rarely discussed even within the agency itself. After the attacks, the Counterterrorism Center rapidly established its own special activities group, primarily composed of loaned military personnel focused on hunting down terrorists plotting against America.

The elite CIA units regularly undertake extraordinarily dangerous missions, including parachuting into hostile territory, conducting high-risk extractions in terrorist strongholds like Benghazi, Khartoum, and Karachi.

"It's extremely dangerous work,” Kiriakou said, noting that many fallen heroes are honored with anonymous stars on the CIA's Wall of Honor, their ultimate sacrifice known only to God and country.

The post-9/11 atmosphere at the Counterterrorism Center reflected America's new war footing, with office areas nicknamed "Bin Laden Boulevard" and "Hezbollah Highway."

Kiriakou also shed light on the Global Response Staff (GRS), elite security professionals whose job is literally to put their lives on the line for other Americans. Created to protect case officers operating in the world's most dangerous locations. "Your job is to throw your body in front of the other guy so he doesn't get killed,” he told Fischer.

Kiriakou is a former CIA officer who became a prominent whistleblower after exposing the agency's use of torture in interrogations following 9/11. He served in the CIA's Counterterrorism Center and was involved in the capture of high-value terrorist targets, including Abu Zubaydah in Pakistan in 2002. Kiriakou made headlines when he publicly confirmed the CIA's use of waterboarding and other enhanced interrogation techniques, becoming the first former CIA officer to openly discuss the agency's torture program. His revelations led to his prosecution under the Espionage Act, and he served nearly two years in federal prison for allegedly revealing the identity of a covert CIA officer.

The 20-year war in Afghanistan stands as one of the U.S.'s most devastating foreign policy failures, costing taxpayers over $2 trillion and resulting in the deaths of 243,000 people across Afghanistan and Pakistan since 2001, according to Brown University's Costs of War Project. While the U.S. achieved the initial mission of dismantling al-Qaeda and removing the Taliban government after 9/11, the mission tragically expanded into a nation-building disaster that squandered American blood and treasure. Over 2,400 American servicemembers made the ultimate sacrifice, all for a mission that ended in humiliating defeat when the Taliban reclaimed power in mere days following then-President Joe Biden's catastrophic withdrawal in August 2021. The collapse exposed how two decades of military presence, billions spent training Afghan forces, and countless American lives lost failed to create the stable democracy our leaders promised, leaving many veterans asking whether their sacrifice was in vain.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 17:20

Inside The CIA Unit Nobody Dares Talk About

In an eye-opening interview, former CIA officer turned whistleblower John Kiriakou pulled back the curtain on the agency's most elite fighting units, revealing how the United States’ intelligence agencies transformed overnight into a lethal force dedicated to hunting down radical Islamic terrorists after the September 11th terror attacks.

Speaking with host Dalton Fischer, Kiriakou delivered a no-nonsense account of CIA's most classified operators, the legendary Ground Branch warriors, Special Activities Division (SAD), and Counterterrorism Center (CTC), elite units filled with the U.S.’s finest Navy SEALs, Army Rangers, and Delta Force operators.

"These aren't your typical government bureaucrats," Kiriakou explained. "These are battle-tested heroes from our most elite military units, SEALs, Rangers, Delta Force, recruited because they have the skills and courage to do what others can't."

After 9/11, these elite soldiers were quickly brought into the CIA fold, many on loan from the military before becoming permanent assets in divisions like Global Services, Special Activities Division, and the hard-hitting Counterterrorism Center. Their mission? Simple and vital: eliminate threats to American lives and freedom (and whatever the fuck else the CIA has them doing). 

"What they do is so classified that even though everybody in the office knows what they're up to, nobody talks about it," Kiriakou revealed, describing the iron-clad secrecy surrounding these operations. Their job, the former CIA officer explained without hesitation, is "to neutralize anybody who poses a threat to the United States, its citizens, or its installations.”

While praising the critical importance of eliminating high-value terrorist targets like Osama bin Laden to protect American families, Kiriakou didn't shy away from addressing the tough questions about oversight and accountability.

"Mistakes happen in the fog of war," Kiriakou acknowledged, referencing troubling cases where intelligence errors led to innocent people being detained. "We're not lawless vigilantes. As American government officials, we're bound by the Constitution. That's what separates us from our enemies and makes America the beacon of freedom in the world.”

Kiriakou pinpointed the exact moment America's intelligence community transformed into a fighting force.

"The day after 9/11,” Kiriakou told Fischer, vividly recalling the pivotal moment when Cofer Black, then head of the Counterterrorism Center, stood before his team and declared the new reality.

"Today, we're at war, and we're all going to have to fight. Not all of us are going to come home," Black announced to a silent room, marking the beginning of the U.S.’s years-long campaign against al-Qaeda.

By Christmas 2001, Kiriakou explained that al-Qaeda’s core operations in Afghanistan was virtually destroyed, with only 25 active members remaining according to Senate intelligence.

Before 9/11, the Special Activities Division operated in the shadows within the CIA's Directorate of Operations, conducting missions that were rarely discussed even within the agency itself. After the attacks, the Counterterrorism Center rapidly established its own special activities group, primarily composed of loaned military personnel focused on hunting down terrorists plotting against America.

The elite CIA units regularly undertake extraordinarily dangerous missions, including parachuting into hostile territory, conducting high-risk extractions in terrorist strongholds like Benghazi, Khartoum, and Karachi.

"It's extremely dangerous work,” Kiriakou said, noting that many fallen heroes are honored with anonymous stars on the CIA's Wall of Honor, their ultimate sacrifice known only to God and country.

The post-9/11 atmosphere at the Counterterrorism Center reflected America's new war footing, with office areas nicknamed "Bin Laden Boulevard" and "Hezbollah Highway."

Kiriakou also shed light on the Global Response Staff (GRS), elite security professionals whose job is literally to put their lives on the line for other Americans. Created to protect case officers operating in the world's most dangerous locations. "Your job is to throw your body in front of the other guy so he doesn't get killed,” he told Fischer.

Kiriakou is a former CIA officer who became a prominent whistleblower after exposing the agency's use of torture in interrogations following 9/11. He served in the CIA's Counterterrorism Center and was involved in the capture of high-value terrorist targets, including Abu Zubaydah in Pakistan in 2002. Kiriakou made headlines when he publicly confirmed the CIA's use of waterboarding and other enhanced interrogation techniques, becoming the first former CIA officer to openly discuss the agency's torture program. His revelations led to his prosecution under the Espionage Act, and he served nearly two years in federal prison for allegedly revealing the identity of a covert CIA officer.

The 20-year war in Afghanistan stands as one of the U.S.'s most devastating foreign policy failures, costing taxpayers over $2 trillion and resulting in the deaths of 243,000 people across Afghanistan and Pakistan since 2001, according to Brown University's Costs of War Project. While the U.S. achieved the initial mission of dismantling al-Qaeda and removing the Taliban government after 9/11, the mission tragically expanded into a nation-building disaster that squandered American blood and treasure. Over 2,400 American servicemembers made the ultimate sacrifice, all for a mission that ended in humiliating defeat when the Taliban reclaimed power in mere days following then-President Joe Biden's catastrophic withdrawal in August 2021. The collapse exposed how two decades of military presence, billions spent training Afghan forces, and countless American lives lost failed to create the stable democracy our leaders promised, leaving many veterans asking whether their sacrifice was in vain.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 17:20

"Free DC!": Screamfest During House Hearing As Tlaib Accuses Trump Admin Of 'Fascist Takeover'

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) described the Trump administration’s crackdown on crime in Washington D.C. as a “fascist takeover” during an unhinged diatribe in the House of Representatives Thursday, prompting a Republican member to call her “radical” and “insane.”

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held a hearing titled “Oversight of the District of Columbia” to discuss President Trump’s recent efforts to improve public safety in the nation’s capital.

Witnesses included D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson, D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb, and gun control advocate Gregory Jackson, Jr.

Tlaib made clear in her remarks that she was not a fan of Trump’s decision to mobilize the national guard and take control of the Metropolitan Police Department to combat the rampant crime and homelessness plaguing D.C.

“We can’t be passive right now. It’s really important that we stand up against this fascist takeover,” Tlaib said.

She added defensively, “that’s not a bad word! It’s a fact here in D.C. and across the country.”

The congresswoman went on to suggest that any mention of the city’s crime issues was insincere and off-base.

“It is so incredibly important Mr. Chair that this committee does not allow rhetoric that defames or paints Washington D.C. in a way that you all really haven’t seen, she said. “You’re just reading it or something of off …”

At this point Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) interjected to ask Tlaib to yield to answer a question.

“No, I don’t yield, I don’t even have time,” the congresswoman shot back.

“Your time’s expired,” Donalds informed her.

But Tlaib continued her rant.

“You all live here and you’re not telling people the beautiful parts that we do see in our nation’s capital,” she said.

Donald’s broke in again to say he objected to Tlaib referring to him and his colleagues as if they were from “the Third Reich.”

“This is insane!” he exclaimed. “Do I look like a member of the Third Reich to you Miss Tlaib?” he asked.

The congresswoman raised her voice, shrilly screaming in response: “You’re the one who … No! … That’s unethical!”

As the Michigan Democrat continued to fulminate, Donalds spoke over her, saying  “I think it’s radical and I think it’s insane and I don’t respect anything that you said. To say something like that about myself and my colleagues is way out of line!”

“You hold yourself accountable before you talk about Washington D.C.!”  Tlaib bellowed in response.

“Hold your own self accountable, how about that?” Donalds shot back. “Hold your own self accountable.”

“Free D.C., Free D.C.!” Tlaib chanted, echoing the far-left street agitators who had been bused into the capital to protest Trump’s crackdown on crime.

Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) finally took control and gave the floor to Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.).

In his opening statement, Comer credited the president with setting “a strong example of how smart-on-crime policies protect communities.”

The chairman noted that the Committee recently passed fourteen key pieces of legislation aimed at restoring public safety, and urged his colleagues to continue building on the progress already achieved in D.C.

Comer said that “since Trump mobilized the national guard and took control of the Metropolitan Police Department, violent crime has decreased 39 percent, robberies are down 57 percent, and car jackings are down 75 percent.”

Over 2,300 people have been arrested. Nearly 950 illegal aliens have been detained by ICE, including 20 gang members from violent foreign terrorist organizations.

Sex offenders have been taken off the streets.

Major drug trafficking operations have been foiled.

Authorities thwarted a planned school shooting, cleared 50 illegal tent encampments, and rescued seven missing children.

And D.C. went without a homicide for 13 days.

Prior to Trump’s crackdown on crime, Washington, D.C. was suffering from soaring crime rates, as high as the violent 1990s, Comer said.

“President Trump’s operation was a resounding success and a shining example of how smart-on-crime policies can keep the residents of and visitors to our nation’s capital safe,” the chairman declared.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 17:00

"Free DC!": Screamfest During House Hearing As Tlaib Accuses Trump Admin Of 'Fascist Takeover'

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) described the Trump administration’s crackdown on crime in Washington D.C. as a “fascist takeover” during an unhinged diatribe in the House of Representatives Thursday, prompting a Republican member to call her “radical” and “insane.”

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held a hearing titled “Oversight of the District of Columbia” to discuss President Trump’s recent efforts to improve public safety in the nation’s capital.

Witnesses included D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson, D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb, and gun control advocate Gregory Jackson, Jr.

Tlaib made clear in her remarks that she was not a fan of Trump’s decision to mobilize the national guard and take control of the Metropolitan Police Department to combat the rampant crime and homelessness plaguing D.C.

“We can’t be passive right now. It’s really important that we stand up against this fascist takeover,” Tlaib said.

She added defensively, “that’s not a bad word! It’s a fact here in D.C. and across the country.”

The congresswoman went on to suggest that any mention of the city’s crime issues was insincere and off-base.

“It is so incredibly important Mr. Chair that this committee does not allow rhetoric that defames or paints Washington D.C. in a way that you all really haven’t seen, she said. “You’re just reading it or something of off …”

At this point Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) interjected to ask Tlaib to yield to answer a question.

“No, I don’t yield, I don’t even have time,” the congresswoman shot back.

“Your time’s expired,” Donalds informed her.

But Tlaib continued her rant.

“You all live here and you’re not telling people the beautiful parts that we do see in our nation’s capital,” she said.

Donald’s broke in again to say he objected to Tlaib referring to him and his colleagues as if they were from “the Third Reich.”

“This is insane!” he exclaimed. “Do I look like a member of the Third Reich to you Miss Tlaib?” he asked.

The congresswoman raised her voice, shrilly screaming in response: “You’re the one who … No! … That’s unethical!”

As the Michigan Democrat continued to fulminate, Donalds spoke over her, saying  “I think it’s radical and I think it’s insane and I don’t respect anything that you said. To say something like that about myself and my colleagues is way out of line!”

“You hold yourself accountable before you talk about Washington D.C.!”  Tlaib bellowed in response.

“Hold your own self accountable, how about that?” Donalds shot back. “Hold your own self accountable.”

“Free D.C., Free D.C.!” Tlaib chanted, echoing the far-left street agitators who had been bused into the capital to protest Trump’s crackdown on crime.

Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) finally took control and gave the floor to Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.).

In his opening statement, Comer credited the president with setting “a strong example of how smart-on-crime policies protect communities.”

The chairman noted that the Committee recently passed fourteen key pieces of legislation aimed at restoring public safety, and urged his colleagues to continue building on the progress already achieved in D.C.

Comer said that “since Trump mobilized the national guard and took control of the Metropolitan Police Department, violent crime has decreased 39 percent, robberies are down 57 percent, and car jackings are down 75 percent.”

Over 2,300 people have been arrested. Nearly 950 illegal aliens have been detained by ICE, including 20 gang members from violent foreign terrorist organizations.

Sex offenders have been taken off the streets.

Major drug trafficking operations have been foiled.

Authorities thwarted a planned school shooting, cleared 50 illegal tent encampments, and rescued seven missing children.

And D.C. went without a homicide for 13 days.

Prior to Trump’s crackdown on crime, Washington, D.C. was suffering from soaring crime rates, as high as the violent 1990s, Comer said.

“President Trump’s operation was a resounding success and a shining example of how smart-on-crime policies can keep the residents of and visitors to our nation’s capital safe,” the chairman declared.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 17:00

Baltimore's Decay Accelerates As Kevin Plank's Billion-Dollar Microcity Turns Into "Ghost Town"

Under Armour founder Kevin Plank and his brother Scott Plank sold their ownership interest in a luxury hotel tucked into Baltimore's historic Fells Point neighborhood this week. The sale comes as UA's turnaround plan sputters, its much-hyped micro-city remains half-empty, and Plank continues, or at least attempts to offload assets. Why the Planks poured so much money into a city run by incompetent Democrats - many of them considered far-left activists - remains puzzling, as Baltimore has descended over the years into what President Trump has called a "hellhole."

The Baltimore Sun reports the Plank brothers sold their ownership stake in the Pendry hotel to Montage International, a California-based hospitality management company, on Wednesday. They spent $60 million to renovate and restore the building, transforming it into what is now called the Sagamore Pendry Baltimore hotel. 

A major problem for the luxury hotel, as The Sun asks: Amid Sagamore Pendry sale by Kevin Plank, can luxury hotels thrive in Baltimore? 

Certainly a great question, given that the far-left activists running Baltimore City have pushed a decade of failed criminal justice reforms that backfired and fueled a violent crime wave. The result is unmistakable: a population collapse to 100-year lows.

... in other words, the largest population exodus in a generation. The city could lose its "major city" status if the population hemorrhage continues.

Why the Planks poured tens of millions - if not more - into Baltimore seems like another troubling bet. Perhaps the explanation lies in their origin story, which began in the metro area, where they sold UA tees out of a car at youth lacrosse games and through the retail chain Lax World.

UA's Turnaround plan sputtering:

• Under Armour Shares Crash As Kevin Plank's Turnaround Plan Hits Wall 

And this.

• Kevin Plank's Race Farm Listed For $22 Million Amid Under Armour Troubles

• Inside World Of High-Net-Worth Lending: Kevin Plank Pledges Georgetown Home For $15M Commercial Loan

Plus this. 

• "Billion-Dollar Ghost Town" Surrounds Under Armor Headquarters

UA is a mess. Baltimore is a mess. Maryland is a mess. Time for a reset of politics in the state controlled by radical leftists.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 16:40

Baltimore's Decay Accelerates As Kevin Plank's Billion-Dollar Microcity Turns Into "Ghost Town"

Under Armour founder Kevin Plank and his brother Scott Plank sold their ownership interest in a luxury hotel tucked into Baltimore's historic Fells Point neighborhood this week. The sale comes as UA's turnaround plan sputters, its much-hyped micro-city remains half-empty, and Plank continues, or at least attempts to offload assets. Why the Planks poured so much money into a city run by incompetent Democrats - many of them considered far-left activists - remains puzzling, as Baltimore has descended over the years into what President Trump has called a "hellhole."

The Baltimore Sun reports the Plank brothers sold their ownership stake in the Pendry hotel to Montage International, a California-based hospitality management company, on Wednesday. They spent $60 million to renovate and restore the building, transforming it into what is now called the Sagamore Pendry Baltimore hotel. 

A major problem for the luxury hotel, as The Sun asks: Amid Sagamore Pendry sale by Kevin Plank, can luxury hotels thrive in Baltimore? 

Certainly a great question, given that the far-left activists running Baltimore City have pushed a decade of failed criminal justice reforms that backfired and fueled a violent crime wave. The result is unmistakable: a population collapse to 100-year lows.

... in other words, the largest population exodus in a generation. The city could lose its "major city" status if the population hemorrhage continues.

Why the Planks poured tens of millions - if not more - into Baltimore seems like another troubling bet. Perhaps the explanation lies in their origin story, which began in the metro area, where they sold UA tees out of a car at youth lacrosse games and through the retail chain Lax World.

UA's Turnaround plan sputtering:

• Under Armour Shares Crash As Kevin Plank's Turnaround Plan Hits Wall 

And this.

• Kevin Plank's Race Farm Listed For $22 Million Amid Under Armour Troubles

• Inside World Of High-Net-Worth Lending: Kevin Plank Pledges Georgetown Home For $15M Commercial Loan

Plus this. 

• "Billion-Dollar Ghost Town" Surrounds Under Armor Headquarters

UA is a mess. Baltimore is a mess. Maryland is a mess. Time for a reset of politics in the state controlled by radical leftists.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 16:40

"At This Point, Nothing Will Save The Democratic Party From Itself..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"You have no idea the fire you have ignited."

- Erika Kirk

He was about as fine a young man as you could have dreamed up in a country so busy disgracing itself, Jesus-like in quality, if not in exact manner. Jesus, after all, was not a family man. But then there was nothing supernatural about Charlie Kirk. He was vividly of this time and place on earth. Now, in death, you can imagine him up on a mural in the post office. They’ve gone and turned him into legend, like Davy Crockett, Joseph Smith, Abe Lincoln. Yeah, it goes that deep.

The Woke-Jacobin Left broke into a happy-dance when they heard the news, and I bet 90-percent of them didn’t even know what Charlie was about, except that their minders had painted a bullseye on him and somebody hit it. They have forgotten what their country is about, too. They have unwittingly acted-out Biblical-grade wickedness. Jimmy Kimmel didn’t just tell a bad joke about the president — “This is how a four-year-old mourns a goldfish" — he made a Judas of himself. He demonstrated exactly what it means to betray whatever remains of goodness in this land.

You are at a loss to understand how bad it got, years of officially enforced insanity, absurdities jammed down your craw, treasonous mischief, vile abuses under color-of-law (Tina Peters still rots in jail in Colorado!), and, lately, gunning down whoever stands in their way. You look at an old, established political party and you begin to see actual demons. You understand that destroying the country might not be enough for them.

At this point, nothing will save the Democratic Party from itself. It will not fade quietly into irrelevance like the Whigs did in the 1850s. No, you are witnessing something more like spontaneous combustion, a conflagration of the vicious and unholy.

If you happened to watch Kash Patel in the Senate Judiciary Committee the other day going at Adam Schiff, what you saw was an actual exorcism.

Mr. Patel said, “You are the biggest fraud to ever sit in the United States Senate. You are a disgrace to this institution and an utter coward. You continue to lie from your perch and put on a show so you can go raise money for your charades. You are a political buffoon at best! I challenge you to say anything credible to the truth. Go ahead and run to the cameras where you wanna go now!"

He might as well have just said: "I cast you out, unclean spirit, along with every satanic power of the enemy, every specter from hell, and all your fell companions. . . .” In the process, Mr. Patel reminded Senator Schiff that he is Director of the FBI now and, well. . . things have changed. Perhaps other Senators who have trafficked in sedition and malicious perfidy — say, Mark Warner on the Intel Committee — viewed these goings-on with a twinge of dread for what is coming.

Notice that no one on the Judiciary Committee dared move to hold Mr. Patel in contempt, because what he said is self-evidently true, and they all know it. Senator Schiff is, of course, already under investigation for mortgage fraud, which is inconvenient enough, but before long he will have to answer graver charges for offenses against the nation, along with many co-conspirators in and out of office. His over-speaking the witness (Mr. Patel) in committee the other day was the sort of climactic mummery you see in movies when the iniquitous are brought low in an official proceeding — think the babbling Bryan character in Inherit the Wind or Captain Queeg in the Caine Mutiny Court-Martial. Schiff knows he is cooked and Mr. Patel just flambéed him.

If Mr. Trump had any qualms about turning the full force of the law on this party and its demonic confederates in government and the old news media, then you can safely assume that after Charlie Kirk’s murder every lever of power will be used to get them all into courtrooms under fair and correct proceedings with the basic aim of laying out the truth of what has happened to our country, so that everyone can see what it was.

By the way, and in case you missed it, Associate Deputy Attorney General Ed Martin, on or about September 5, visited Tina Peters in her cell in the Colorado State Prison at Pueblo. Peters (who turns 70 today), the former Mesa County Clerk convicted in 2024 of nine felony counts related to a security breach of voting equipment (stemming from efforts to "prove" 2020 election fraud claims), was sentenced to nine years in prison. The DOJ has filed a “review” of her conviction in federal court. I wouldn’t want to be Jena Griswold, Colorado Secretary of State, who spearheaded Tina Peter’s prosecution for daring to voice concern over election fraud.

Then, just this week, the same Ed Martin paid a call to the Fulton County, GA, election headquarters to initiate federal grand jury proceedings to access 148,000 ballots held under seal and unexamined in a county warehouse since the 2020 election. The ballots have long been suspected of irregularities and possible fraud. “Joe Biden” won the state by 11,799 votes out of 5,017,000 cast (a 0.23% plurality), and thus the national election — as did both of Georgia’s Democratic senators, Jon Ossof and Raphael Warnock.

The post Charlie Kirk America is a new reality. Prepare accordingly.

*  *  *

Reserve your order by Sunday night for Monday shipping. Free shipping from now until Sept. 28. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 16:20

"At This Point, Nothing Will Save The Democratic Party From Itself..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"You have no idea the fire you have ignited."

- Erika Kirk

He was about as fine a young man as you could have dreamed up in a country so busy disgracing itself, Jesus-like in quality, if not in exact manner. Jesus, after all, was not a family man. But then there was nothing supernatural about Charlie Kirk. He was vividly of this time and place on earth. Now, in death, you can imagine him up on a mural in the post office. They’ve gone and turned him into legend, like Davy Crockett, Joseph Smith, Abe Lincoln. Yeah, it goes that deep.

The Woke-Jacobin Left broke into a happy-dance when they heard the news, and I bet 90-percent of them didn’t even know what Charlie was about, except that their minders had painted a bullseye on him and somebody hit it. They have forgotten what their country is about, too. They have unwittingly acted-out Biblical-grade wickedness. Jimmy Kimmel didn’t just tell a bad joke about the president — “This is how a four-year-old mourns a goldfish" — he made a Judas of himself. He demonstrated exactly what it means to betray whatever remains of goodness in this land.

You are at a loss to understand how bad it got, years of officially enforced insanity, absurdities jammed down your craw, treasonous mischief, vile abuses under color-of-law (Tina Peters still rots in jail in Colorado!), and, lately, gunning down whoever stands in their way. You look at an old, established political party and you begin to see actual demons. You understand that destroying the country might not be enough for them.

At this point, nothing will save the Democratic Party from itself. It will not fade quietly into irrelevance like the Whigs did in the 1850s. No, you are witnessing something more like spontaneous combustion, a conflagration of the vicious and unholy.

If you happened to watch Kash Patel in the Senate Judiciary Committee the other day going at Adam Schiff, what you saw was an actual exorcism.

Mr. Patel said, “You are the biggest fraud to ever sit in the United States Senate. You are a disgrace to this institution and an utter coward. You continue to lie from your perch and put on a show so you can go raise money for your charades. You are a political buffoon at best! I challenge you to say anything credible to the truth. Go ahead and run to the cameras where you wanna go now!"

He might as well have just said: "I cast you out, unclean spirit, along with every satanic power of the enemy, every specter from hell, and all your fell companions. . . .” In the process, Mr. Patel reminded Senator Schiff that he is Director of the FBI now and, well. . . things have changed. Perhaps other Senators who have trafficked in sedition and malicious perfidy — say, Mark Warner on the Intel Committee — viewed these goings-on with a twinge of dread for what is coming.

Notice that no one on the Judiciary Committee dared move to hold Mr. Patel in contempt, because what he said is self-evidently true, and they all know it. Senator Schiff is, of course, already under investigation for mortgage fraud, which is inconvenient enough, but before long he will have to answer graver charges for offenses against the nation, along with many co-conspirators in and out of office. His over-speaking the witness (Mr. Patel) in committee the other day was the sort of climactic mummery you see in movies when the iniquitous are brought low in an official proceeding — think the babbling Bryan character in Inherit the Wind or Captain Queeg in the Caine Mutiny Court-Martial. Schiff knows he is cooked and Mr. Patel just flambéed him.

If Mr. Trump had any qualms about turning the full force of the law on this party and its demonic confederates in government and the old news media, then you can safely assume that after Charlie Kirk’s murder every lever of power will be used to get them all into courtrooms under fair and correct proceedings with the basic aim of laying out the truth of what has happened to our country, so that everyone can see what it was.

By the way, and in case you missed it, Associate Deputy Attorney General Ed Martin, on or about September 5, visited Tina Peters in her cell in the Colorado State Prison at Pueblo. Peters (who turns 70 today), the former Mesa County Clerk convicted in 2024 of nine felony counts related to a security breach of voting equipment (stemming from efforts to "prove" 2020 election fraud claims), was sentenced to nine years in prison. The DOJ has filed a “review” of her conviction in federal court. I wouldn’t want to be Jena Griswold, Colorado Secretary of State, who spearheaded Tina Peter’s prosecution for daring to voice concern over election fraud.

Then, just this week, the same Ed Martin paid a call to the Fulton County, GA, election headquarters to initiate federal grand jury proceedings to access 148,000 ballots held under seal and unexamined in a county warehouse since the 2020 election. The ballots have long been suspected of irregularities and possible fraud. “Joe Biden” won the state by 11,799 votes out of 5,017,000 cast (a 0.23% plurality), and thus the national election — as did both of Georgia’s Democratic senators, Jon Ossof and Raphael Warnock.

The post Charlie Kirk America is a new reality. Prepare accordingly.

*  *  *

Reserve your order by Sunday night for Monday shipping. Free shipping from now until Sept. 28. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 16:20

ETF Just Happened

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist At Raboank

In a surprise decision, the Bank of Japan announced it would start to gradually sell its ETF holdings. The central bank plans to shrink its portfolio by ¥620 billion ($4.2 billion) per year. To emphasise how gradual of a pace that is, Governor Ueda recounted that “it would take more than 100 years” to fully unwind the central bank’s ETF holdings.

On top of that, two policymakers dissented from the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged today. They preferred to hike to 0.75% already, which puts a rate hike in October squarely on the table.

The shock announcement made for a bit of a rollercoaster ride for Japanese equities. The Nikkei 225 opened the trading day about one percent higher; tumbled 2.5% from those levels on the Bank’s announcement; and finally recovered some of those declines to end up 0.6% below yesterday’s close.

But there’s, perhaps, another interesting element to this decision: the central bank decided to reduce its ETF holdings, rather than speeding up its exit from the sovereign bond market – that is, more than the tapering of JGB purchases it had announced in June. Both programmes will need to be right-sized as part of policy normalisation, but perhaps the recent pressure on global long-term bond yields –and particularly JGBs– was a consideration as well. Either way, the Japanese curve is twist flattening on the hawkish decision.

The UK monetary policy decision made less waves. Yesterday, the Bank of England decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, with a familiar split vote. The usual two suspects voted in favour of another 25bp cut. That, along with the policy statement, affirms our view that there is still a bias toward easing in the monetary policy committee, even though the bar for further rate cuts is rising. Policymakers are looking to cut further, but only when they get clearer evidence that the disinflationary process is continuing.

Yet, UK inflation data suggest that the disinflationary momentum is waning, and various metrics of underlying inflation remain sticky, and we don’t believe that the October inflation report will provide a very different picture. Therefore, we now expect the next rate cut to be delayed into early 2026, and we have revised our forecast for the terminal rate somewhat higher.

As our UK strategist notes, the Bank remaining on hold through Q4 also puts the emphasis on Chancellor Reeves’ Autumn budget. The Chancellor has the difficult task of plugging a roughly £50 billion fiscal gap.

Today’s data once again underscored the need to shore up the UK’s finances. Public sector net borrowing was much higher than expected in August: last month, the government borrowed £5.5 billion more than the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast in March. And estimated borrowing in earlier months were revised up as well. Yields on longer-dated gilts are opening significantly higher – with sterling down against both dollar and euro, reflecting concerns about the sustainability of the UK’s finances.

In short, tax hikes are pretty much unavoidable. That will be a tough message to sell, as Labour is already trailing Reform in the polls. But investors require something more tangible than just rhetoric: they demand to see credible and substantial fiscal adjustments.

Given the hesitance amongst gilt investors, it is noteworthy that the Bank of England will shrink its sovereign bond holdings by £70 billion over the next year. That includes £21 billion in active sales, on top of the maturing bonds – an increase from this year’s pace. In an attempt to limit disruptions in longer-dated Gilts, the central bank will skew its sales towards shorter maturities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 15:40

ETF Just Happened

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist At Raboank

In a surprise decision, the Bank of Japan announced it would start to gradually sell its ETF holdings. The central bank plans to shrink its portfolio by ¥620 billion ($4.2 billion) per year. To emphasise how gradual of a pace that is, Governor Ueda recounted that “it would take more than 100 years” to fully unwind the central bank’s ETF holdings.

On top of that, two policymakers dissented from the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged today. They preferred to hike to 0.75% already, which puts a rate hike in October squarely on the table.

The shock announcement made for a bit of a rollercoaster ride for Japanese equities. The Nikkei 225 opened the trading day about one percent higher; tumbled 2.5% from those levels on the Bank’s announcement; and finally recovered some of those declines to end up 0.6% below yesterday’s close.

But there’s, perhaps, another interesting element to this decision: the central bank decided to reduce its ETF holdings, rather than speeding up its exit from the sovereign bond market – that is, more than the tapering of JGB purchases it had announced in June. Both programmes will need to be right-sized as part of policy normalisation, but perhaps the recent pressure on global long-term bond yields –and particularly JGBs– was a consideration as well. Either way, the Japanese curve is twist flattening on the hawkish decision.

The UK monetary policy decision made less waves. Yesterday, the Bank of England decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, with a familiar split vote. The usual two suspects voted in favour of another 25bp cut. That, along with the policy statement, affirms our view that there is still a bias toward easing in the monetary policy committee, even though the bar for further rate cuts is rising. Policymakers are looking to cut further, but only when they get clearer evidence that the disinflationary process is continuing.

Yet, UK inflation data suggest that the disinflationary momentum is waning, and various metrics of underlying inflation remain sticky, and we don’t believe that the October inflation report will provide a very different picture. Therefore, we now expect the next rate cut to be delayed into early 2026, and we have revised our forecast for the terminal rate somewhat higher.

As our UK strategist notes, the Bank remaining on hold through Q4 also puts the emphasis on Chancellor Reeves’ Autumn budget. The Chancellor has the difficult task of plugging a roughly £50 billion fiscal gap.

Today’s data once again underscored the need to shore up the UK’s finances. Public sector net borrowing was much higher than expected in August: last month, the government borrowed £5.5 billion more than the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast in March. And estimated borrowing in earlier months were revised up as well. Yields on longer-dated gilts are opening significantly higher – with sterling down against both dollar and euro, reflecting concerns about the sustainability of the UK’s finances.

In short, tax hikes are pretty much unavoidable. That will be a tough message to sell, as Labour is already trailing Reform in the polls. But investors require something more tangible than just rhetoric: they demand to see credible and substantial fiscal adjustments.

Given the hesitance amongst gilt investors, it is noteworthy that the Bank of England will shrink its sovereign bond holdings by £70 billion over the next year. That includes £21 billion in active sales, on top of the maturing bonds – an increase from this year’s pace. In an attempt to limit disruptions in longer-dated Gilts, the central bank will skew its sales towards shorter maturities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 15:40

Trump To Slap H1-B Visas With $100,000 Fee; Infosys, Cognizant Plunge

Bad news for alien worker visa farms such as Infosys and Cognizant.

President Trump is expected to sign an order as soon as Friday that would extensively overhaul the H-1B visa program, requiring a $100,000 fee for applications in a bid to curb overuse, Bloomberg reported citing a White House official familiar with the matter.

Trump is set to sign a proclamation Friday, requiring the payment and asserting that abuse of the H-1B pathway has displaced US workers. The proclamation restricts entry under the H-1B program unless accompanied by the payment, which of course will make it so prohibitively expensive to hire foreign workers that only a handful such applications will be made. 

Think of it as a tariff on foreign labor. 

There's more: Trump will also order the Labor Secretary to undertake a rulemaking process to revise prevailing-wage levels for the H-1B program, a move intended to limit the use of visas to undercut wages that would otherwise be paid to American workers.

The move is the latest immigration reform by the Trump administration and will heavily affect the technology industry in particular, as it relies heavily on H-1Bs. The administration argues that the revisions will bring more certainty to legitimate filings under the program by weeding out abuses. 

A fact sheet published by the White House and set seen by Bloomberg News, claims that workers are being replaced with lower-paid foreign labor and called it a national security threat. The dynamic is suppressing wages and disincentivizing Americans from choosing careers in STEM fields, the White House said. 

It wasn’t immediately clear whether the $100,000 figure was in addition to, or inclusive of, existing fees that are much more modest. Fees directly tied to the H-1B visa application currently include a $215 fee to register for the lottery and a $780 fee for a Form I-129, which is a petition for a non-immigrant worker that is filed by an employer sponsor.

H-1B visas are awarded based on a lottery system, but Bloomberg News has reported previously that flaws in the system create loopholes that some employers exploit by flooding the lottery with entries.  Unlike large tech firms these companies often use the visa program to hire lower-paid workers — and do so indirectly, through staffing and outsourcing companies that capture about half of the 85,000 new visas allocated each year.

The administration’s policy shift unfolds alongside a wave of fee increases for work permits, asylum applications and humanitarian protections stipulated in the president’s tax bill, in a bid to raise revenue to pay for funding for new detention centers, hiring thousands of immigration agents, and expanding border wall construction.

News of the shocking fee sent shares of visa farms and foreign worker consultancies such as Infosys, Cognizant and Accenture tumbling.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 15:20

Trump To Slap H1-B Visas With $100,000 Fee; Infosys, Cognizant Plunge

Bad news for alien worker visa farms such as Infosys and Cognizant.

President Trump is expected to sign an order as soon as Friday that would extensively overhaul the H-1B visa program, requiring a $100,000 fee for applications in a bid to curb overuse, Bloomberg reported citing a White House official familiar with the matter.

Trump is set to sign a proclamation Friday, requiring the payment and asserting that abuse of the H-1B pathway has displaced US workers. The proclamation restricts entry under the H-1B program unless accompanied by the payment, which of course will make it so prohibitively expensive to hire foreign workers that only a handful such applications will be made. 

Think of it as a tariff on foreign labor. 

There's more: Trump will also order the Labor Secretary to undertake a rulemaking process to revise prevailing-wage levels for the H-1B program, a move intended to limit the use of visas to undercut wages that would otherwise be paid to American workers.

The move is the latest immigration reform by the Trump administration and will heavily affect the technology industry in particular, as it relies heavily on H-1Bs. The administration argues that the revisions will bring more certainty to legitimate filings under the program by weeding out abuses. 

A fact sheet published by the White House and set seen by Bloomberg News, claims that workers are being replaced with lower-paid foreign labor and called it a national security threat. The dynamic is suppressing wages and disincentivizing Americans from choosing careers in STEM fields, the White House said. 

It wasn’t immediately clear whether the $100,000 figure was in addition to, or inclusive of, existing fees that are much more modest. Fees directly tied to the H-1B visa application currently include a $215 fee to register for the lottery and a $780 fee for a Form I-129, which is a petition for a non-immigrant worker that is filed by an employer sponsor.

H-1B visas are awarded based on a lottery system, but Bloomberg News has reported previously that flaws in the system create loopholes that some employers exploit by flooding the lottery with entries.  Unlike large tech firms these companies often use the visa program to hire lower-paid workers — and do so indirectly, through staffing and outsourcing companies that capture about half of the 85,000 new visas allocated each year.

The administration’s policy shift unfolds alongside a wave of fee increases for work permits, asylum applications and humanitarian protections stipulated in the president’s tax bill, in a bid to raise revenue to pay for funding for new detention centers, hiring thousands of immigration agents, and expanding border wall construction.

News of the shocking fee sent shares of visa farms and foreign worker consultancies such as Infosys, Cognizant and Accenture tumbling.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 15:20

Several Russian Jets Breach Airspace Of NATO-Member Estonia

NATO member Estonia (since 2004) has fiercely condemned what it says is a "brazen" incident where Russian warplanes violated its airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Friday.

The Estonian foreign ministry described that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets "entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes."

A pair of Mikoyan MiG-31 Foxhounds, Russian MoD

The ministry quickly summoned Russian chargé d'affaires "to lodge a protest" - and simultaneously EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, who hails from the Baltic country and was the first female prime minister, blasted the incursion as "an extremely dangerous provocation".

Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna went further to call it "unprecedentedly brazen" saying that--

"Russia's increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure."

Reports in Estonian media claim that the jets turned off their transponders and 'went dark' during the incident, so as to not be tracked easily on radar.

This apparently isn't a first, as Russia has allegedly violated Estonia's airspace four times in 2025. Moscow likely isn't too 'concerned' over moments its military might breach the airspace of this tiny former Soviet satellite state in the Baltics.

But European leaders are using these increasing instances to push for an 'eastern flank' aerial defense shield protecting NATO.

Just last week the two largest eastern members of NATO said that Russian drones breached their airspace.

The Polish instance was the most serious, given Warsaw accused Russia of intentionally sending a 'wave' of drones - up to 19 - which resulted in its military urgently scrambling jets to track them.

Adobe Stock

Russia in response insisted that there was nothing deliberate about the drone breach, which it turns out involved 'decoy' drones commonly used over Ukraine to draw away air defense missiles.

The Kremlin says there are "no plans" to target Polish or NATO soil. But one of the drones may have made it as much as 40 miles into Polish territory, which is significant.

Romania also sent jets to track an apparently errant Russian drone's movements, and chose not to shoot it down, before it went back into Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 14:40

Several Russian Jets Breach Airspace Of NATO-Member Estonia

NATO member Estonia (since 2004) has fiercely condemned what it says is a "brazen" incident where Russian warplanes violated its airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Friday.

The Estonian foreign ministry described that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets "entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes."

A pair of Mikoyan MiG-31 Foxhounds, Russian MoD

The ministry quickly summoned Russian chargé d'affaires "to lodge a protest" - and simultaneously EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, who hails from the Baltic country and was the first female prime minister, blasted the incursion as "an extremely dangerous provocation".

Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna went further to call it "unprecedentedly brazen" saying that--

"Russia's increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure."

Reports in Estonian media claim that the jets turned off their transponders and 'went dark' during the incident, so as to not be tracked easily on radar.

This apparently isn't a first, as Russia has allegedly violated Estonia's airspace four times in 2025. Moscow likely isn't too 'concerned' over moments its military might breach the airspace of this tiny former Soviet satellite state in the Baltics.

But European leaders are using these increasing instances to push for an 'eastern flank' aerial defense shield protecting NATO.

Just last week the two largest eastern members of NATO said that Russian drones breached their airspace.

The Polish instance was the most serious, given Warsaw accused Russia of intentionally sending a 'wave' of drones - up to 19 - which resulted in its military urgently scrambling jets to track them.

Adobe Stock

Russia in response insisted that there was nothing deliberate about the drone breach, which it turns out involved 'decoy' drones commonly used over Ukraine to draw away air defense missiles.

The Kremlin says there are "no plans" to target Polish or NATO soil. But one of the drones may have made it as much as 40 miles into Polish territory, which is significant.

Romania also sent jets to track an apparently errant Russian drone's movements, and chose not to shoot it down, before it went back into Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/19/2025 - 14:40