From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 10.6 Percent

Personal and business bankruptcy filings increased 10.6 percent in the twelve-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, compared with the previous year.

According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 557,376 in the year ending September 2025, compared with 504,112 cases in the previous year.

Business filings rose 5.6 percent, from 22,762 to 24,039 in the year ending Sept. 30, 2025. Non-business bankruptcy filings increased 10.8 percent to 533,337, compared with 481,350 in the previous year.

Still fairly low.

Market Bubbles: A Rational Guide To An Irrational Market

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

We’re hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidia’s valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little to no revenue. Investment in data centers, chips, and infrastructure is happening at a scale not seen since the internet boom of the 1990s, which immediately reminds investors of what happened next. The question isn’t whether AI is important; it’s whether the price of that importance is being inflated beyond reason. That is the nature of market bubbles.

Voices in the market are split. Some, like Jared Bernstein, former Biden CEA chairman, said:

“We point out that the share of the economy devoted to AI investment is nearly a third greater than the share of the economy devoted to internet related investments back during the dotcom bubble. So, we think there are enough analogies there to make the call.”

Others argue this is not a bubble, at least not yet.

“Macro bubbles” – asset price distortions with large economy-wide consequences – have generally involved not just overvalued asset prices but also dramatic impacts on spending and capital flows that have been both clues that a bubble is under way and forces that serve to undermine it.

The 1990s was a classic example. Alongside soaring equity prices, investment spending boomed, leverage rose, capital poured in, and profitability and balance sheet strength declined, while credit spreads and equity volatility moved higher. The macro and market imbalances that we saw then, particularly from 1998 onward, are not generally visible yet.” – Goldman Sachs

This split is normal. Every major innovation cycle creates a divide between skeptics who see overvaluation and optimists who see a new era of growth. The challenge for investors is not to take sides, but to understand what bubbles do, why they’re so hard to identify in real time, and how to benefit from them without being destroyed by them.

Yes, we may be in the second market bubble of this century. Alternatively, the market may be pricing in a shift as fundamental as the transition to either electricity or the internet. Either way, investors must think clearly, act deliberately, and avoid the kind of blind speculation that turned past booms into bloodbaths.

Market Bubbles Aren’t All Bad

Market bubbles carry a negative reputation because we witness the devastation in the aftermath of their collapse.

However, from a broader perspective, market bubbles also carry active value. During the inflation of a bubble, you see excessive optimism, capital flowing rapidly, and valuations detached from fundamentals. This is undoubtedly the case with respect to Artificial Intelligence as we currently see it.

Still, this environment often gives rise to genuine innovation. As Jeremy Grantham once argued:

“Bubbles are wonderful at generating new technologies.”

His point echoes through history.

Take the British railway mania of the 1840s. Investors poured capital into rail lines, many of which failed. However, in the end, the result was a vast transport network that transformed the economy. Or consider the late‑1990s dot‑com boom. The always wrong Paul Krugman once said:

“The Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine.”

That quote was made during the height of the dot-com bubble, a period that many now consider a textbook example of financial excess. However, it also laid the foundation for the modern digital economy. The infrastructure that powers Amazon, Google, and Microsoft was created because billions of dollars flowed into companies, many of which failed. Yet their collective capital expenditures left behind fiber optic cables, server farms, and developer tools that enabled the next wave.

When capital floods into a technological frontier, many bets fail. But some win. That outcome sets a foundation for future growth.

The AI boom is following a similar path. Companies are spending heavily on GPUs, data centers, and custom models. Most of them will not survive, but their investments are accelerating real capabilities. AI is being integrated into products, streamlining operations, and driving the creation of new business models. Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta are racing to build the next layer of compute infrastructure. This isn’t abstract theory; it’s already showing up in earnings reports and productivity metrics.

Understanding that a bubble can be beneficial involves recognizing two key points.

1. You don’t dismiss the boom simply because it is speculative. You acknowledge that capital is being deployed and that it will have future positive implications.

2. You accept that risk is inherent during such periods. From one angle, the bubble looks reckless. However, from another, it seems like the stage where breakthroughs become possible. By appreciating the positive aspect, you gain clarity about what is happening and why it matters for investors.

You should treat a bubble not as a spectacle to be ignored, but as a phenomenon to be studied. Market bubbles are periods where capital loses discipline, but that loss of discipline funds the future. The value created during inflation often matters more than the value destroyed during the burst.

That’s why you don’t ignore market bubbles; you study them, respect them, and use them to your advantage.

Why Bubbles Are Only Obvious in Hindsight

Currently, many predict that the AI market bubble is set to burst. Every time the technology sector wobbles, the media is quick to push headlines of the end of the AI boom. However, each time, those warnings turned false and impaired investors who paid attention to them.

This doesn’t mean the warnings aren’t valid. Yes, current valuations are very high in many cases, and many of the companies either in the market today, or coming to it, likely won’t succeed. The problem is always the “timing” of the call.

For most investors, bubbles are never evident until they pop.

While rising prices may seem like evidence of irrational behavior, this may not be the case today or in the future if the future turns out as expected. Of course, there are a lot of “ifs” in that forecast. A good example was from Research Affiliates discussing Tesla (TSLA) in 2018:

“Tesla’s current price is arguably fair if most cars are powered by electricity in 10 years, if most of these cars are made by Tesla, if Tesla can make those cars with sufficient margin and quality control and can service the cars properly, and if Tesla can raise additional capital sufficient to cover a $3 billion annual cash drain and another billion to service its debt.”

As noted, there were many “ifs” in that statement. However, as we approach that 10th anniversary, TSLA is still operating and growing, but doesn’t sell MOST of the cars in America. However, for investors who bailed on Tesla in 2018, assuming it was a bubble, they have paid a price for that decision.

As noted, while the RA’s analysis was sound, that is what makes market bubbles so hard to identify. Valuations can exceed what you consider reasonable and remain elevated for longer than you anticipate.

In real-time, a bubble appears to be a trend backed by solid fundamentals. The early phases attract smart capital. The next phase brings in copycats and momentum traders. But by the time people start warning about a bubble, the narrative is fully established. Calling a market bubble too early can be just as costly as calling it too late. As Howard Marks wrote:

“Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.”

Even seasoned investors misjudge it. During the late 1990s, Warren Buffett was widely mocked for sitting out of the tech rally. His response was simple: he didn’t understand how to value the companies. He was right, eventually, but missed a massive run. Others, like Julian Robertson, tried to short the bubble and suffered enormous losses before it burst.

The AI surge fits the classic pattern. A legitimate breakthrough in computing power and algorithmic capability has led to rapid adoption. OpenAI’s ChatGPT reached 100 million users faster than any consumer product in history. Nvidia’s revenue tripled in a year. These facts are real. What’s unknown is how much of this growth is sustainable.

You only know it was a bubble when prices collapse and companies disappear. But by then, it’s too late to protect your capital. The Spyglass article put it well:

“You never really know it’s a bubble until the knife is already halfway through your chest.”

That’s why humility is essential.

If you think it might be a bubble, you’re already ahead of most investors. But timing it? That’s luck, not skill.

How to Participate During the Inflation and Avoid the Deflation

Participating in a bubble doesn’t mean going all in. It means allocating resources wisely, managing risk effectively, and knowing when to step back. The goal is not to call the top. It’s to avoid the worst of the collapse while capturing some of the upside..

Recognize the structural backdrop.

• AI is a genuine transformative technology. The AI surge entails substantial capital expenditures in data centers, chips, computing capacity, and cloud services. That means there is real substance beneath the hype.

• Nonetheless, the valuations and the speed of investment suggest that the market is pricing in extremely optimistic scenarios, characterized by high growth, low risk, and rapid monetization.

How you should position your investment. To participate while managing risk, you might follow these steps:

• Focus on companies with strong fundamentals and realistic business models. Since bubbles bring many “spray and pray” investments, your edge lies in filtering.

• Allocate only a portion of your portfolio to the “bubble zone,” and recognize the high-risk/high-reward nature.Do not rely on it for core returns.

• Use this bubble to invest in infrastructure and enabling technologies rather than pure “moonshot” names. The infrastructure often survives the bust. For example, in the dot‑com era, the winners included those who built the backbone rather than the most hyped storefronts.

• Consider time‑horizon and liquidity. If you invest in bubble‐type assets, you must be prepared for high volatility and potential loss of capital if the bubble deflates.

How to avoid the consequences of the eventual deflation. Since bubbles eventually correct, you must adopt safeguards:

• Set exit rules. Define ahead of time the conditions under which you’ll reduce exposure (e.g., valuation multiple, margin of safety erosion, fundamental deterioration).

• Diversify across themes. Do not place all your bets in one bubble. If the bubble bursts, you want other anchors in your portfolio.

• Monitor fundamentals. The bubble phase often disconnects from fundamentals. When you observe that the disconnect is widening, the risk rises.

• Avoid leverage. Borrowing into a bubble makes the downside much steeper. Many historic bubble collapses were amplified by excessive debt.

• Keep long‑term winners in view. Some companies will emerge stronger post‑bubble. Try to identify them now, hold them, but be wary of paying hype‑driven valuations.

Start with this: focus on quality. In every bubble, a few companies emerge stronger. Amazon fell by over 90% during the dot-com crash but survived because it had a real business model and strong execution. The rest disappeared. Today, investors should look for companies with free cash flow, pricing power, and tangible applications of AI. Nvidia might be expensive, but it’s selling the picks and shovels in this gold rush. That’s a more sustainable model than a startup burning cash to fine-tune a chatbot.

Even using something as simple as a 40-week moving average can help you navigate both the inflation and deflation of a bubble.

No, you won’t get in at the bottom, or out at the top. But remember what is most important: participation is optional, but survival is mandatory.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 13:45

Solid 2 Year Treasury Auction Prices At Lowest Yield In Over 3 Years

The first coupon auction of the holiday-shortened week just priced and it was a snoozer, which came in right as expected. 

The sale of $69BN in 2 year notes, priced at a high yield of 3.489%, down from 3.504% in October and the lowest since August 2022; it also priced on the screws with the 3.489% when issued.

The bid to cover was 2.684, up from 2.590 and the highest since August.

The internals were also solid, with Indirects awarded 58.1%, the highest since June, and above the six auction average of 57.9%. And with Directs taking 30.7%, in line with the recent average of 30.9%, Dealers were left with 11.2%, also right on top of the recent average of 11.1%. 

Overall, this was a solid auction, which came in line with expectations on most metrics, which explains why the market reaction was non-existent with yields trading near session lows after news of the auction priced, and why traders took one look at the results and went on their merry way.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 13:35

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Sees Production Soaring As Tariff Terrors Fade

"Signs indicate business activity is improving," according to one respondent from The Dallas Fed's Manufacturing survey in November. However, the comments and the mixed data could leave readers confused...

Texas factory activity expanded at a markedly faster pace in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 15 points to 20.5, indicating a notable pickup in output growth. Expectations for manufacturing activity six months from now remained positive. The future production index increased notably, to 33.7 from 21.0, while the future general business activity index edged up to 11.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to faster growth this month. The new orders index increased to 4.8 from -1.7. The capacity utilization index jumped 21 points to 19.4, and the shipments index increased nine points to 15.1. Price pressures remained flat as tariff talk in the survey's respondents reduced significantly.

However, perceptions of broader business conditions worsened this month. The general business activity index fell further into negative territory to -10.4 from -5.0. Outlooks also worsened, with the company outlook index falling six points to -6.3 in November. 

In pictures, it looks like this: Texas manufacturers are pumping production higher (and expect more in the future) but their headline sentiment above business activity is tumbling to its lowest since June...

Choose your own adventure...

The respondents comments continue the dissonance. Bear in mind that data were collected Nov. 10–18 (right as the shutdown ended), and 70 of the 115 Texas manufacturers surveyed submitted responses.

Bad news (but hopeful)

• We don't know if it's the shutdown or just that demand has dropped, but our orders have dropped in half.

• We continue to see soft incoming orders, with poor general activity in our industry. It's as if all the chaos in Washington is creating a lot of wait-and-see attitude among our customers' customers. We are very hopeful that things will improve in the next 6 months.

• Business is as delicate today as it was under the previous administration. Small, established businesses have nowhere to turn for help when suddenly paying new tariffs.

• We’re currently facing challenging business conditions on several fronts...

• There is a continued weakness in the retail consumer market. 

Good News:

• November was our most profitable month this year. We are seeing increased business activity and many new projects.

• Looking forward to a tax rebate for the month of government shutdown.

• It seems even the modest decrease in interest rates has assuaged fears of inflation and provided comfort that we are indeed headed in the right direction. Tariff revenue has not dramatically impacted opportunity to grow in our industry, and it has seemingly improved our overall economy. We remain hopeful of continued progress through 2026.

• Signs indicate business activity is improving, i.e. lowering of interest rate, improving economy and consumer confidence for major purchases.

And finally, we have a simple question that raises our own doubts about how 'real' these responses are: 

A 'Beverage and Tobacco product manufacturer' is worried about Fed Independence and is unsure about uncertainty?

Concerns about the economy, the independence of the Fed and tariffs continue to cause uncertainty. We are not certain that [uncertainty] has actually increased as much as it has remained at an uncomfortably elevated level.

Perhaps they'd be better off just worrying about 'beverages'?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 13:15

Judge Dismisses Cases Against Comey, Letitia James

A federal judge has dismissed cases against former FBI Director James Comey and NY Attorney General Letitia James, after finding that US Attorney Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed to the role, and that AG Pam Bondi cannot ratify her actions.

Judge Cameron McGowan Currie, a Clinton appointee, dismissed the case without prejudice over Halligan's appointment, meaning the DOJ can try again when they get their act together. 

"I conclude that all actions flowing from Ms. Halligan's defective appointment, including securing and signing Ms. James's indictment, constitute unlawful exercises of executive power and must be set aside," the judge wrote in an order in James' case.

While the White House says they'll appeal, the statute of limitations has already passed for Comey's case - which Judge Currie noted in a footnote that the DOJ could not bring a similar indictment against him, as "there is no legitimate peg on which to hang such a judicial limitations-tolling result" with a voided indictment. 

As the Epoch Times notes, the Justice Department had argued that even if Halligan’s appointment were invalid, the indictments should stand because they were approved by Attorney General Pam Bondi. Currie rejected that premise and described Bondi’s attempts to ratify Halligan’s actions as “ineffective.”

Currie’s decision focused on 28 U.S. Code Section 546, which allows interim attorneys to serve for 120 days, further providing that district courts “may appoint” a U.S. attorney to fill vacancies at the end of that timeframe if the Senate has not already appointed a replacement.

During a hearing on Nov. 13, the Justice Department argued that the law did not confine the attorney general to an initial 120 days for appointing prosecutors. Rather, it said, the law allowed for successive appointments of attorneys who would each have 120-day limits on their time in office.

Comey pleaded not guilty to charges that he lied to Congress during a 2020 hearing and obstructed their proceeding.

BREAKING

A federal judge just DISMISSED James Comey’s case without prejudice because of Lindsey Halligan’s unlawful appointment.

More soon on All Rise News.

Doc https://t.co/m6S1O9vWK5

Background https://t.co/KPpEL9WuKm pic.twitter.com/gaQwNGzB79

— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 24, 2025

As Axios notes;

• The indictment against Comey came as the statute of limitations was set to expire. Trump ousted U.S. attorney Erik Siebert, who had reportedly believed there was not enough evidence to bring a case against Comey or New York Attorney General Letitia James.

• Trump replaced Siebert with Lindsey Halligan, who had previously worked for him. She is now serving as the interim U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia despite having no prosecutorial experience.

• Judge William Fitzpatrick warned in a November opinion that "a disturbing pattern of profound investigative missteps" could have undermined the proceedings, leaving the indictment in jeopardy.

Developing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 12:48

'Great Deal For US Farmers': Trump Says Relationship With China 'Extremely Strong', Will Visit Xi In April

Update (1240ET): President Trump has just posted on his Truth Social feed, breaking down his 'debrief' on the call with China's Xi: (emphasis ours)

I just had a very good telephone call with President Xi, of China.

We discussed many topics including Ukraine/Russia, Fentanyl, Soybeans and other Farm Products, etc.

We have done a good, and very important, deal for our Great Farmers — and it will only get better.

Our relationship with China is extremely strong!

This call was a follow up to our highly successful meeting in South Korea, three weeks ago.

Since then, there has been significant progress on both sides in keeping our agreements current and accurate. Now we can set our sights on the big picture.

To that end. President Xi invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I accepted, and I reciprocated where he will be my guest for a State Visit in the U.S. later in the year.

We agreed that it is important that we communicate often, which I look forward to doing. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

We do note that there was no mention of Taiwan in President Trump's breakdown.

*  *  *

At a moment US-ally Japan is in a rare full-blown diplomatic and (increasingly) military showdown with China, the country's President Xi Jinping held a phone call with US President Donald Trump on Monday, both sides have confirmed. The last time the two leaders met and talked in detail, which was on the sidelines Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in late October, they had declared a "tariff truce" in an effort to de-escalate trade tensions.

But the Taiwan issue is once again taking center stage, at a moment Tokyo has quite provocatively decided to place medium-range missiles on an island which lies less than 70 miles east of Taiwan. The White House has so far into its term been relatively quite on the issue.

Trump, rather than stoking tensions further, appears to be striking a conciliatory position: 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump discussed bilateral cooperation and the issue of Taiwan in a phone call on Monday, Beijing's state news agency Xinhua reported.

Xi told Trump that the two countries should "maintain momentum in ties" after the two leaders met last month in South Korea, and "stressed that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the post-war international order", according to Xinhua.

And so it appears Trump is content to maintain Washington's longstanding doctrine of 'strategic ambiguity' regarding the Taiwan crisis. Trump's Taiwan policy has been a big question mark, but arguably this is precisely what strategic ambiguity seeks to convey. 

Via Reuters

Still, MIT has featured some recent analysis, also citing the non-interventionist Quincy Institute, suggesting Trump could be ready to abandon the US policy which has been in place for decades:

Despite uncertainty in the Trump administration’s China policy, dangerous trends across the Taiwan Strait continue to raise the chance of crisis. Tensions are deepening in the overall U.S.–China relationship, and the credibility of Washington’s One China policy and Beijing’s support for peaceful unification is mutually eroding. While China continues to expand its military capabilities and intimidate Taiwan, the U.S. is keen to mobilize its regional alliances to enhance warfighting against China.

These developments raise the question of whether the longstanding U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, which contains the possibility of U.S. military intervention to defend Taiwan against China, remains the best approach to preventing war over the island.

Quincy Institute senior research fellow Michael Swaine recently published two policy briefs arguing that Taiwan is not a sufficiently vital interest for the United States to go to war over. He contends that Washington should begin transitioning to a policy beyond strategic ambiguity — a new approach that seeks to enhance support for Taiwan but rules out the possibility of joining a war over the island.

And Nikkei has recently published a report in a similar vein, suggesting Trump could be listening more to those voices which urge a more hands-off approach in China's backyard, and that the US would be unwilling ultimately to commit military forces to aid in the self-ruled island's immediate defense:

Trump's rhetorical vagueness on Taiwan, compounded by the continued absence of any authoritative policy documents on the topic, has prompted observers to look elsewhere for possible reflections of the administration's views.

One such report that has gone viral on both sides of the Taiwan Strait came from researchers at my former home organization, RAND. Their report from last month, "Stabilizing the U.S.-China Rivalry," contained the following sentence within its recommendations: "Stabilizing the Taiwan issue should focus on creating the maximum incentive for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches toward unification [my emphasis added]." Although it seems like the authors are advocating Chinese unification with Taiwan, this is hardly the case. Rather, they were highlighting the importance of slowing Beijing's unification efforts down and basically encouraging Washington to trick China into thinking this is possible, even if the U.S. would still severely complicate forceful unification, to buy more time for the uneasy status quo to persist.

Despite Trump not having raised the issue much with Xi, there have still been a couple of Trump-approved weapons sales to Taipei of late. For now though it looks like Trump is playing nice with Xi on the issue, given the sensitivity of the subject could sour positive momentum in trade relations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 12:45

"Never Had These Problems Before": Violent Illegal Street Takeover Rocks Queens Neighborhood, Terrifying Residents

A late-night illegal street takeover in Queens, New York, over the weekend turned extremely violent when a private security guard attempting to intervene was assaulted, and his vehicle was set on fire. The incident highlights the growing public-safety crisis in Democrat-run cities and may only suggest what's to come under Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. 

City Councilwoman Vickie Paladino, who represents the neighborhood of Malba, a small, wealthy residential area in northeastern Queens, was absolutely disgusted by the lawlessness...

On X, Paladino raged: 

Last night in Malba, a large group of individuals from outside my district conducted an illegal 'takeover' of a quiet residential street at approximately 12:30am. This is not the first time it's happened.

A private security guard attempted to calm the situation -- he was assaulted by the mob and his vehicle was set on fire. He suffered significant injuries. A local resident was also assaulted.

Response to this incident was less than ideal. Residents reporting the incident to 911 were told that 'quality of life team' and 311 should handle the situation. Unacceptable. In fact, these violent street takeovers should be met with maximum force by the police department.

We have NEVER had these problems before. Now it's an epidemic. What changed? We stopped arresting criminals.

I am meeting this morning with the chief of department and the local precinct at the scene to discuss exactly what happened last night. I have already been assured that Malba will receive four dedicated patrol cars from this point forward, as well as additional security upgrades that we cannot disclose.

However, the city MUST do something to stop this lawlessness. All the speed cameras in the world do absolutely NOTHING to prevent these incidents -- we need police response and the most severe consequences for these criminals, not to simply allow them to drive away after they've completed their mayhem.

These incidents are happening citywide, and they're happening because there are no longer any real consequences to this kind of criminality. But let me make something very clear to the criminals -- you are risking your lives bringing this chaos into our neighborhoods.

I know for a fact there were multiple armed residents who exercised extreme restraint last night, however that level of restraint is not guaranteed. If the city refuses to do what's necessary, the people might.

Once again I want to urge any residents of my district who are interested in obtaining their carry or premises permits to contact my office. We are offering assistance with the application process and legal fees to all who wish to exercise their constitutional right to self protection.

Last night in Malba, a large group of individuals from outside my district conducted an illegal 'takeover' of a quiet residential street at approximately 12:30am. This is not the first time it's happened.

A private security guard attempted to calm the situation -- he was… pic.twitter.com/sSL7aWuufC

— Councilwoman Vickie Paladino (@VickieforNYC) November 23, 2025

Paladino posted another view of the mob attack:

Another view of the chaos as a mob of criminals attack a resident on their own lawn.

This is what progressives have wrought on our neighborhoods.

A homeowner would be entirely justified using deadly force on these animals, and one day it will come to that if this isn’t stopped. pic.twitter.com/3hxD4GMGwS

— Councilwoman Vickie Paladino (@VickieforNYC) November 23, 2025

More chaos. 

Another angle of these animals attacking a law abiding homeowner in his own front yard. They do this because they know there are no consequences for criminality in New York. They’ve done this before and will do it again. pic.twitter.com/FkVX73WdPS

— Councilwoman Vickie Paladino (@VickieforNYC) November 23, 2025

This latest incident of lawlessness in NYC comes just as far-left Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani prepares to take control of City Hall. Though he's recently tried to soften his past "defund the police" rhetoric, his decision to tap radical leftist anti-cop activist Elena Leopold to his transition team tells a different story. 

Mamdani has repeatedly called for defunding the police. https://t.co/KLTfb6BTBE pic.twitter.com/KXoSkmkLI6

— America (@america) October 17, 2025

Mamdani wants to EMPTY THE PRISONS AND DEFUND THE POLICE

NYC: Do you want to live in a lawless hellhole and have career criminals running around your city freely with no police around??? pic.twitter.com/xTgqHTKa6K

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 4, 2025

Mamdani's policy framework mirrors the same nation-killing agenda of the Democratic Party, weakening law enforcement, opening all borders, shielding illegal aliens, promoting the climate crisis hoax agenda, and doubling down on the failed social and criminal-justice experiments that have hollowed out public safety across the country and, in some cases, sparked national security threats. 

Wait a minute, did you say anything about DHS under the last administration letting 10,000 Islamist terrorists over the southern border—now you want to use “terrorism” when you all know you set us up for the massive attack that is coming. Cute.

— Sarah Adams (@TPASarah) November 23, 2025

The result, well, more NYC outflows to red states... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 12:25

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

Excerpt:

“All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

Maybe we could say that all housing booms look alike, but every down cycle is “unhappy in its own way.”

In March 2022, I wrote Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust. Instead, I suggested a more similar period was the late ‘70s to early ‘80s.

It is natural to compare the current housing boom to the mid-00s housing bubble. The bubble and subsequent bust are part of our collective memories. And graphs of nominal house prices and price-to-rent ratios look eerily similar to the housing bubble.

However, there are significant differences. First, lending has been reasonably solid during the current boom, whereas in the mid-00s, underwriting standards were almost non-existent (“fog a mirror, get a loan”). And demographics are much more favorable today than in the mid-00s.

A much more similar period to today is the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. House prices were increasing sharply. Demographics were very favorable for homebuying as the baby boomers moved into the first-time homebuying age group (similar to the millennials now). And inflation picked up from an already elevated level due to the second oil embargo in 1979, followed by the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, driving up costs.

Sure enough, there hasn’t been a national crash in house prices. However, although there are similarities to the late ‘70s / early ‘80s period, there also significant differences. The most obvious difference is the sharp slowdown in population growth and immigration. The population and workforce were expanding sharply in the early ‘80s.

There is much more in the article.

As Japan Deploys Missiles Near Taiwan, China Blasts 'Right Wing' Forces Taking Tokyo To 'Disaster'

The ongoing China-Japan dispute and diplomatic flare-up has just gone from bad to worse, and has taken a turn toward potential military confrontation. Japan’s defense minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, visited a Japanese island which has a military outpost that lies close to Taiwan on Sunday. The optics were unmistakable, signaling Tokyo doesn't plan on backing down after two weeks of Beijing demanding a retraction. It all started when earlier this month Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made comments in a parliamentary meeting which made clear Japan could possibly intervene militarily in the scenario of China invading Taiwan.

"If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation," Takaichi had said, becoming the first Japanese top official in decades to link the Taiwan crisis to a potential Japanese military response. 

These are 'fighting optics': Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi speaks to reporters after inspecting the Ground Self-Defense Force garrison on Yonaguni Island, Okinawa Prefecture, on Sunday. Source: JIJI, Japan Times

Beijing immediately embarked on punishing measures, including threatening trade relations alongside urging Chinese citizens to avoid all travel to Japan.

It was only last Friday that China again warned, "Prime Minister Takaichi's openly erroneous remarks concerning Taiwan have fundamentally undermined the political foundation of China-Japan relations and severely damaged bilateral economic and trade exchanges," according to the words of a foreign ministry spokesperson.

The following threat was emphasized, "Should the Japanese side persist on its course of action and continue down the wrong path, China will resolutely take the measures required and all consequences shall be borne by Japan." The United States is standing by Tokyo's side, even as the Trump admin appears to be sticking by the long-running Washington doctrine of 'strategic ambiguity' related to Taiwan's defense.

But instead of heeding the warning and reversing course, Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi unveiled the deployment of placing medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni island.

"The deployment can help lower the chance of an armed attack on our country," Koizumi told reporters while sporting an military commander-style jacket. He also expressly rejected Beijing's concerns, though without invoking China directly. "The view that it will heighten regional tensions is not accurate," he said.

Importantly, the island in question - and thus the new highly provocative missiles deployment - lies just under 70 miles east of Taiwan. It looks to become part of a broader military build-up in Japan's southern island chain.

China has in turn already reacted to the development, saying Sunday: "Right-wing forces in Japan are ... leading Japan and the region toward disaster," foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular news briefing. Beijing "is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty," she continued.

Various regional watchers are lining up on either side of the dispute, but nearly all of expressed surprise at Japan's new 'boldness'...

I’m beginning to see the rationale for China’s UN Charter Article 53 intervention. Japan is militarist insane. https://t.co/HJROyBPcvD pic.twitter.com/W3WQZs5fIE

— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) November 23, 2025

“The move is extremely dangerous and should raise serious concerns among nearby countries and the international community,” Mao added, also relating the whole spat back to PM Takaichi’s earlier remarks.

China has earlier warned Japan will suffer a "crushing" defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing's anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned for the time being.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 11:40

EU And Whose Army?

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Bonds and equities rallied on Friday and Brent crude prices fell by more than 1% as markets digested the details of a 28-point peace plan drafted by US and Russian officials. The most contentious elements of the plan are the recognition of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as being de facto Russian, the requirement for Ukraine to reduce its armed forces to 600,000 personnel (from approximately 800-850,000 currently), a commitment from both NATO and Ukraine that the latter will never be admitted as a NATO member, and the provision for Russia to rejoin the G7 and have sanctions lifted in stages.

In return for formally ceding control of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk and renouncing ambitions to NATO membership, Ukraine would receive confirmation of sovereignty (including from Russia) be granted a NATO-style security guarantee from the United States that has been long-sought by Volodomyr Zelenskyy, be granted short-term preferential access to the EU common market, a pathway to EU membership and substantial aid for reconstruction and development – including from $100bn in frozen Russian assets.

President Trump has set a deadline of the Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday for signing the agreement, with the possibility of withholding arms and intelligence dangled as a ultimatum for delay. President Zelenskyy has said that the plan presents an “impossible choice” for Ukraine between a loss of dignity or the loss of a key defence partner. Trump seemed to acknowledge that the deal would be a bitter pill for Ukraine but that Ukrainian concessions were an inevitability if peace was going to be achieved. “He’s [Zelenskyy] going to have to like it, and if he doesn’t like it, then you know, they should just keep on fighting... at some point he’s going to have to accept something.” 

It should be pointed out that European politicians have been completely sidelined during this process. Some have balked at the terms and instead proposed alternative plan that is more favorable to their own interests and the interests of Ukraine, but lacks buy-in from the United States or Russia and does not appear to be taken seriously by Ukraine. Others have said that the EU should take the US plan as a starting point and haggle over the details. Once again, Europe’s incoherent and slow-moving political apparatus is being exploited by outside powers to its cost.

Of course, Europe has precious little leverage to inject itself into the negotiations because the defense guarantees critical to the process can only be realistically enforced by the weight of US arms. This was seemingly confirmed by the political reaction to recent comments by top French General Fabien Mandon who said that Europe has “all the knowledge, all the economic and demographic strength to deter the Moscow regime”, but “is not prepared to accept losing its children, [or] to suffer economically because priorities will be given to defense production”. The fear for some European politicians will be that if they do not accede to American terms (especially if they are grudgingly accepted by Ukraine), the United States will simply hand them the keys and tell them that Russia is now their problem to deal with. How does that fit with the “sell America, buy Europe” narrative that was driving markets earlier this year?

This process highlights the extraordinary geopolitical impotence of the EU as it – like Ukraine – has terms imposed upon it from the outside without so much as a “by your leave”. It also highlights the ongoing determination by the administration in Washington to pursue détente with Moscow as it views the Kremlin as a natural partner in the United States’ geopolitical competition with China. This is the noxiN (‘reverse Nixon’) strategy of splitting the junior partner away from the senior.

Consequently, the 28-point agreement also includes provisions for economic cooperation between Russia and the United States, explicitly in the domains of “energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.” This suits Washington on many fronts, whether it be shoring up its own supply chain vulnerabilities, keeping the EU off-balance, or ensuring that Russia can present a credible check against Chinese dominance of central Asia (where Russian influence has been waning).

Of course, there are also risks here for the United States. Impatience to reach a deal to end the war so that the USA can focus its attentions on the Indo-Pacific risks agreeing to terms that would be too generous to Russia, and effectively vindicate its strategy of using military force to reset the geopolitical order in Eastern Europe. As President Zelenskyy has repeatedly pointed out, Russia has already violated peace agreements numerous times in the past. Would a US defence guarantee be sufficiently credible to deter such violations in the future? Is it credible to believe that Russia is willing to abandon its conception of the Russkiy Mir (Russian World) in the Baltics, the rest of Ukraine and Transnistria? Can Vladimir Putin credibly seek to end a war that has driven rapid growth in real wages and commensurately rapid growth in consumer spending at home?

Striking an agreement that allows Russia to achieve the objectives of its war also risks legitimizing force as a tool of state policy elsewhere. This is an obvious risk in East Asia, where relations between China and Japan are at their most tense in decades as the former accuses the latter of meddling in its internal affairs by saying that it would consider a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to constitute a threat to its own security – and therefore justify a military response. What message will be taken by parties to simmering territorial disputes in the Middle East, or Kashmir, or any number of other geopolitical hotspots?

While the world digested the US-Russia plan for peace in Ukraine another conception of world order was being promoted at the G20 Summit in South Africa over the weekend. The theme of the summit was “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability”, which sounds very idealistic and perhaps feels a bit 2010s in its optimism for multilateralism in an environment where great powers are embracing realist conceptions of foreign policy. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that the summit was “a reminder that the center of gravity in the global economy is shifting”, pointing out that it “brought together nations representing three-quarters of the world’s population, two-thirds of global GDP and three-quarters of the world’s trade, and that’s without the United States formally attending.”

While the sums are undoubtedly right, Carney is perhaps glossing over the Achilles heel that is the lack of cohesion among the group’s constituent parts, and also over the degree to which a unified marginal power can still set the agenda globally. After all, it was only in the recent past that the EU had a greater population, larger GDP and conducted more trade than the USA, but who calls the tune in that relationship?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 11:20

Trump Set To Propose Framework To Halt "Surprise" Obamacare Price Hikes

President Trump is expected to announce a general framework to address health care costs, and wants Congress to send a bill to his desk that would halt Affordable Care Act premium spikes, according to MS Now, citing two White House officials familiar with the plans. 

US President Donald Trump arrives on the South Lawn of the White House on November 22, 2025.North America/Getty Images

Trump's proposed framework - the "Healthcare Price Cuts Act," would seek to terminate what White House officials referred to as "surprise premium hikes" due to the ACA, and would eliminate "zero-premium" subsidies currently offered under the ACA - as well as stopping "ghost beneficiaries" - which would require a small premium payment as a means to verify eligibility to receive benefits in order to minimize fraudulent recipients. 

The plan also features a deposit program that would incentivize lower-premium options on the ACA exchange. For those who downgrade coverage, the difference in costs would be distributed to a "Health Savings Account" that would be funded by the taxpayers. 

The move comes as pandemic-era ACA subsidies are set to expire at year's end, which will send prices back up for nearly 22 million Americans. News of Trump's plan comes amid a bipartisan proposal from the House for a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies. If premiums expire, premiums are expected to more than double next year, while an estimated 2 million more people will become uninsured, the Congressional Budget Office found. 

The announcement, which could come as soon as today, is slated to feature remarks from Trump and Dr. Mehmet Oz - administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the officials said, adding that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) were expected to have been briefed Sunday afternoon. As CNN reports, however, " a White House official said that “until President Trump makes an announcement himself, any reporting about the Administration’s healthcare positions is mere speculation.”"

But the framework under discussion envisions temporarily extending the ACA subsidies in some form, while incorporating a series of guardrails aimed at limiting their scope — potentially including new income limits and a requirement that all enrollees pay some form of premium.

Those provisions would address two of the main critiques that Republicans have about the enhanced subsidies, including that so-called zero premium plans drive fraudulent behavior. But it would also set up the ACA for a more fundamental overhaul down the road along the lines of what Trump has been demanding in recent weeks. 

Democrats notably kept the government shut down for more than a month over their demand for an extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies. In exchange for their vote to finally reopen through January, Senate Republicans agreed to hold a mid-December vote on an extension, spurring Trump and his team to develop their own competing proposal.

Republicans, meanwhile, have wanted to restore an income cap for the Obamacare subsidies, which had been at 400% of the federal poverty level before the enhancement took effect in 2021. The elimination of that cap made plans more affordable for the middle class.

According to recent polling from KFF, almost 75% of Americans support extending the ACA tax credit, including 50% of Republicans. 

GOP Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana have rolled out their own proposals that would allow consumers to take at least part of their federal subsidies and put that money into health savings accounts - with Scott's plan calling for allowing enrollees to use all the aid to buy coverage, including potentially less comprehensive and less expensive plans outside the ACA. Cassidy wants to shift the enhanced subsidies to HSAs and allow enrollees to use the funds to pay for health care services, including doctors visits, prescriptions and glasses. 

Question: If the plan allows some people to choose a lower-tier insurance plan on the exchanges to redirect some federal aid into a health savings account, why can't we also have cheap catastrophic coverage that kicks in after someone's spent, say $25,000 out of pocket? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 11:00

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, And Ukraine Ultimatum

It should be another busy, holiday-shortened, week after a volatile one last week as markets whipsawed around big moves in Fed pricing and AI bubble risk fears. Before we get to Thanksgiving, DB's Jim Reid writes that in the US, delayed post-shutdown data will be compressed into the first three days because of the holiday. Tomorrow brings September’s retail sales and PPI, followed on Wednesday by jobless claims and durable goods orders. The claims data will be particularly important as they cover the November survey week, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lean heavily on these figures and other alternative indicators ahead of its December meeting, given there’ll be no more payroll data prior to the FOMC.

Globally, attention will turn to inflation reports from Europe and Japan, as well as the long-awaited UK Budget, which could prove pivotal for the country’s fragile fiscal outlook. Perhaps the most significant geopolitical development will be Ukraine’s response to the US ultimatum to accept the 28-point peace plan agreed with Russia, with an ultimatum set for before Thanksgiving on Thursday, although the US seem to have indicated over the weekend that there is some room for negotiation.

Let's start with the US, and for tomorrow's September PPI data, benign prints are expected by DB economists for headline (+0.2% vs -0.1% last) and core (+0.2% vs -0.1%), echoing recent CPI trends. Categories feeding into core PCE will be in focus, with forecasts pointing to a 0.26% monthly gain, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%. This will be the last inflation update before the Fed’s December decision, as October CPI and November CPI have been pushed back to mid-December.

Retail sales are forecast by DB economists to show modest gains after strong summer spending: headline +0.1% (vs +0.6% last), ex-auto +0.2% (vs +0.7%), while retail control may dip slightly (-0.1% vs +0.7%). Even so, Q3 retail control growth is tracking at 6.8% annualized —the strongest since early 2023—supporting expectations for robust goods spending once GDP data is published. Factory sector updates arrive Wednesday with durable goods orders for September and the Chicago PMI for November (45.0 vs 43.8). Headline orders are expected to fall (-2.4% vs +2.9%), but ex-transportation (+0.2% vs +0.4%) and core orders (+0.2% vs +0.6%) should post moderate gains, implying a solid 5.3% annualised increase for Q3. Don’t forget Black Friday where we will start to see early evidence of how strong consumer spending is into the important Christmas period.

No Fed speakers are scheduled at this stage. The blackout period begins on Saturday ahead of the December meeting but with Thanksgiving on Thursday, it will start a lot earlier than it normally would.  

European data highlights include preliminary November CPI prints for Germany (2.6% YoY expected), France (0.92%) and Italy (1.23%) on Friday, alongside Q3 GDP releases for Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Germany’s Ifo survey kicks off the week today, followed by consumer confidence on Thursday and retail sales Friday. France will also report confidence and spending data that day. In the UK, the Autumn Budget on Wednesday will be the main event. Expectations point to roughly £35bn in fiscal consolidation, marking a second historic tax-raising budget under Chancellor Reeves. See our economist Sanjay Raja’s preview here in what is one of the most hotly anticipated UK budgets in recent memory. Sanjay may need a lie down in a dark room after Wednesday as it’s fair to say he’s been in high demand of late.  

From central banks, the ECB will publish its October meeting account on Thursday and its consumer expectations survey Friday. In New Zealand, the RBNZ meets Wednesday, with a 25bps rate cut anticipated. Elsewhere, Australia reports October CPI (Wednesday), Canada releases Q3 GDP, and China publishes October industrial profits. Japan’s focus will be on November Tokyo CPI and October activity data (Friday).

With Q3 earnings season winding down, results from Alibaba, Meituan, Analog Devices, Dell and HP will draw attention.

Day-by-day calendar of events, courtesy of DB

Monday November 24

• Data: US October Chicago Fed national activity index, November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Germany November Ifo survey
• Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde and Nagel speak
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Tuesday November 25

• Data: US November Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Dallas Fed services activity, October pending home sales, September retail sales, PPI, FHFA house price index, Q3 house price purchase index, August business inventories, Japan October PPI services, EU27 October new car registrations
• Central banks: ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf, Sleijpen and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: Alibaba, Analog Devices, Dell, HP, Workday, Zscaler, Nio
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Wednesday November 26

• Data: US November MNI Chicago PMI, September durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, Australia October CPI, Norway Q3 GDP
• Central banks: RBNZ decision, Fed’s Beige Book, ECB’s financial stability review, ECB’s Muller, Vujcic and Lane speak
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)
• Other: UK autumn budget

Thursday November 27

• Data: China October industrial profits, Japan November Tokyo CPI, October jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, Germany December GfK consumer confidence, Italy November economic sentiment, September industrial sales, Eurozone October M3, November economic confidence, Canada Q3 current account balance
• Central banks: ECB’s account of October meeting, BoJ’s Noguchi speaks, BoE’s Greene speaks
• Other: US Thanksgiving Day holiday

Friday November 28

• Data: UK November Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan October housing starts, Germany November CPI, unemployment claims rate, October retail sales, import price index, France November CPI, consumer confidence, October PPI, consumer spending, Q3 total payrolls, Italy November CPI, Canada Q3 GDP, Sweden Q3 GDP, Switzerland Q3 GDP
• Central banks: ECB October consumer expectations survey, ECB’s Nagel speaks
• Earnings: Meituan

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the September retail sales report on Tuesday and the September advanced durable goods report on Wednesday. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, with the FOMC’s blackout period scheduled to start on November 29. 

Monday, November 24 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, November 25 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Core retail sales, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.1% in September (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting mean reversion after an outsized increase in the prior month and a slight headwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales increased 0.3%, reflecting a boost from an increase in gasoline prices.
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%);PPI ex-food and energy, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, August (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, November (GS 93.0, consensus 93.3, last 94.6)
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, October (GS +3.0%, consensus +0.1%, last flat)

Wednesday, November 26 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 22 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, 220k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 15 (last 1,936k)
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, September preliminary (GS +1.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +2.9%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September preliminary (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, September preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, September preliminary (GS +0.2%, last -0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased 1.5% in the preliminary September report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting an increase in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.1% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting an improvement in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys but potential payback for the outsized increase in the prior month—and a 0.2% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the increase in orders in the prior month.
• 02:00 PM Fed Releases Beige Book, December meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the September FOMC meeting period noted that three districts had reported modest activity growth, while five districts had reported no change and four districts noted a slight softening, and that uncertainty remained elevated, weighing down activity. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, November 27 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Friday, November 28 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 10:35

Bessent Says Americans To See 'Substantial Refunds' Next Year, No Risk Of Recession

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Nov. 23 said the government shutdown that ended earlier this month will not create a recession risk for the broader U.S. economy and that American families would see “substantial refunds” next year.

In an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent said that while portions of the U.S. economy, such as housing, were in a recession because of elevated interest rates, he did not expect the broader U.S. economy to plunge into a recession in the coming months.

“I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, non-inflationary growth economy,” the secretary said.

Bessent then cited provisions under the Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed earlier this year that he said would spur economic growth.

“So under the One Big Beautiful Bill, especially for working Americans, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, auto deductibility on loans for American cars, that’s all kicking in,” he said.

“Americans have not changed their withholdings. So we are going to see substantial, substantial refunds to working families in the first quarter of 2026. Americans will change their withholding. And they will get an increase in real income.”

A rash of trade deals would also help boost the economy, Bessent said, predicting new plant openings across the country.

“The trade deals that we’ve done, I was just at [my] hometown, Charleston, South Carolina. Boeing is expanding their Dreamliner plant, 1,000 new jobs,” he said.

President Donald Trump earlier this month signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, extending funding through Jan. 30 and setting the stage for another potential showdown between Democrats and Republicans next year. Democrats had wanted a stopgap measure to end the shutdown to include an extension on health care subsidies that are due to expire at the end of the year.

The Trump administration is also planning an announcement this week aimed at lowering health care costs, Bessent said, echoing similar remarks from a senior White House official last week but giving no details.

Also on Nov. 23, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that he expected 2026 to be “an absolute blockbuster year,” although there would be a “hiccup” in the fourth quarter of this year because of the government shutdown.

The comments from Bessent and Hassett come as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said in an interview on Nov. 22 that she’s still leaning against the central bank cutting its benchmark interest rates. The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 3.75 percent and 4 percent, and the Fed cut rates by a quarter of a point at its most recent meeting in late October.

“My own view is that policy is currently in the kind of mildly restrictive range after the 50-basis-point easing that we did in September and October, and that’s appropriate” due to the current state of the U.S. economy, Collins told reporters at a press conference.

Members of the Trump administration, including Bessent, have wanted the Fed to lower interest rates as they have said that inflation has leveled off.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 10:20

Europe's Counter-Plan For Ukraine Peace Leaves Door Wide Open For NATO Admission

Even as the Trump White House is busy in Europe trying to get NATO and EU states on board its 28-point peace plan which controversially demands the Ukrainian side cede territory, the Europeans have leaked their own counter-plan which proposes much less in the way of compromise with Russia.

The UK, France, and Germany have put forward their own counter-proposal, and the draft differs sharply from the US version. Like with prior proposed deals, it contains terms which Moscow is expected to flatly reject, mostly notably it does not provide guarantees that Ukraine will stay out of NATO, and also absent is the ceding of any territory.

While Trump's plan makes clear that Ukraine must renounce ever joining NATO, the European draft states that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership "depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist." This intentionally ambiguous language of course leaves leaves the door wide open, dependent on when such consensus is reached.

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, right, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Geneva on Sunday. via AP

On giving up land, the European document says that any discussions on territorial exchanges would start from the current Line of Contact. Freezing the front lines is something President Zelensky has wanted to do all along. Moscow has seen in this a way of allowing Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm. 

Zelensky is already not happy with the US version of the peace plan, as Ukraine would surrender the areas of Donbas it still controls, and the front lines would be frozen in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - where Russian forces also holds territory.

However, one place where the US and European drafts do appear to be in lock-step is the one area the Kremlin is likely to take serious issue to: Washington and the West would provide security guarantee for Ukraine resembling NATO's Article 5 mutual-defense commitment.

Kiev has meanwhile been given until Thursday to provide its official response to the 28-point plan, and currently it simply looks like it is seeking the backing of Europe in coming up with a more robust pro-Ukraine plan. Trump wants to see the whole thing agreed to by Thanksgiving Day, but this is unlikely to happen, given also the leaks and ongoing blame-game over 'compromising' too much with Russia.

But all serious analysts are in agreement that Russia is dominating on the battlefield, leaving Ukraine with few options but to seek serious compromise to end the war. For example, one observer while commenting on the European plan notes it has no teeth (from Russia's perspective) and predictably Moscow will not see anything attractive in such a deal, which resembles previously failed ones, as it has:

• No ban on Ukraine joining NATO 
• Ukraine is "not be forced to be neutral"
• Ukraine is free to invite "friendly forces"
• Ceasefire & freezing current front lines 
• "No restriction" on size of Ukrainian military etc.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, surely having heard of a European counter-plan in the works, did not look impressed while in Europe on Sunday...

Marco Rubio:

I have not seen any "counter plan" from Europe. pic.twitter.com/8c5IpVo2F6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 23, 2025

The controversy over the US plan has seen the renewal of accusations that Trump is being too "Russia-friendly" - but journalist Michael Tracey has noted:

There's some curious propaganda going on to make people think the Ukraine "peace proposal" is a pro-Russian scheme, when it commits the US militarily, economically, politically to Ukraine beyond what virtually anyone had contemplated, and severely curtails Russian war objectives.

The BBC on Monday has conveyed mixed messaging regarding "progress" on the US 28-point plan:

• Media have reported an updated peace plan drafted by European countries, which includes new terms such as the US providing security guarantee - the BBC has not independently verified its content
• Donald Trump has teased "big progress" after the weekend’s peace talks, saying "something good just may be happening"
• Russia says it has yet to receive any new peace plans, but is open to US contacts and talks
• Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia’s reported demands to recognise the territory they have "stolen" is the "main problem" stopping an agreement

As for President Vladimir Putin, he has said it could serve as a basis for talks. "I think it could also become the foundation for a final peace settlement, but we haven’t discussed the text thoroughly,” he told Russia’s Security Council on Friday. But he expressed skepticism that Kiev and its European backers will accept it, as they "still believe they can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield."

But the Kremlin has still indicated that aspects of the plan do show that finally the US side "has been listening to us" and is a step in the right direction.

Below is the full draft text of the alleged European counter-plan as circulated by Reuters.

* * *

1. Ukraine's sovereignty to be reconfirmed.

2. There will be a total and complete non-aggression agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine and NATO. All ambiguities from the last 30 years will be resolved.

(Point 3 of U.S. plan is deleted. A draft of that plan seen by Reuters said: "There will be the expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbours and NATO will not expand further.")

4. After a peace agreement is signed, a dialogue between Russia and NATO will convene to address all security concerns and create a de-escalatory environment to ensure global security and increase the opportunity for connectivity and future economic opportunity.

5. Ukraine will receive robust Security Guarantees

6. Size of Ukraine military to be capped at 800,000 in peacetime.

7. Ukraine joining NATO depends on consensus of NATO members, which does not exist.

8. NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime.

9. NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland

10. US guarantee that mirrors Article 5

a. US to receive compensation for the guarantee

b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it forfeits the guarantee

c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored and any kind of recognition for the new territory and all other benefits from this agreement will be withdrawn.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to Europe while this is being evaluated

12. Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine including but not limited to:

a. Creation of Ukraine Development fund to invest in high growth industries including technology, data centres and Al efforts

b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, which includes its pipeline and storage facilities

c. A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war to restore, redevelop and modernize cities and residential areas

d. Infrastructure development

e. Mineral and natural resource extraction

f. A special financing package will be developed by the World Bank to provide financing to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia to be progressively re-integrated into the global economy

a. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.

b. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement to pursue mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, AI, datacenters, rare earths, joint projects in the Arctic, as well as various other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.

c. Russia to be invited back into the G8

14. Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.

15. A joint Security taskforce will be established with the participation of US, Ukraine, Russia and the Europeans to promote and enforce all of the provisions of this agreement

16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine

17. The United States and Russia agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including Fair Start

18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT

19. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under supervision of the IAEA, and the produced power shall be shared equitably in a 50-50 split between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

21. Territories

Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means. Negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact.

22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply if there is a breach of this obligation

23. Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine's use of the Dnieper River for purposes of commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve open issues:

a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of All for All

b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children

c. There will be a family reunification program

d. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict

25. Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.

26. Provision will be made to address the suffering of victims of the conflict.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Board of Peace, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violation.

28. Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to the agreed upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin. Ceasefire modalities, including monitoring, will be agreed by both parties under US supervision.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 09:45

Lutnick: Decision On Nvidia's AI H200 Chip China Sales Now Sits On Trump's Desk

Building on last week's Bloomberg report that White House officials are quietly discussing whether to let Nvidia sell its advanced H200 AI chips to China - a complete 180 from the previous administration - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV earlier that the final decision to authorize those shipments now sits on President Trump's desk.

Lutnick spoke on a wide range of topics on Bloomberg TV earlier today, noting that the decision to authorize the sale of Nvidia's H200 chips to China is now on President Trump's desk.

"Lots of different advisers" are weighing in on it, Lutnick added. 

Lutnick's comments come days after a Bloomberg report that White House officials are weighing a significant concession to China,  potentially allowing H200 shipments that would ease current AI-chip export restrictions.

The White House is also urging Congress to reject a bipartisan bill that would require Nvidia to prioritize American customers over China.

The report made clear that within the administration, there is a significant split: some officials see H200 exports as a "compromise" preferable to Blackwell exports, while others oppose any additional Nvidia exports to the world's second-largest economy. 

Also on Bloomberg TV, Lutnick spoke about the ongoing EU negotiations on steel and aluminum tariffs. He pressed the EU to ease its digital-rules agenda, noting that some member states are more flexible, and said he also spoke with the Europeans about diesel markets. 

He warned that if courts strike down existing tariffs, the administration is prepared to respond with new actions immediately.

Could those new actions take the form of financial sanctions against trading partners?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 09:05

Spiraling Costs And A Broken Insurance Market - What Went Wrong With Obamacare

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The government shutdown might be over, but the political and financial problems that dog Obamacare haven’t gone away.

Congress is now debating a second extension of the temporary tax credits that have shielded Obamacare users from rising costs for five years. Without the subsidies, Democrats say millions of Americans will be priced out of the health insurance market at the stroke of midnight on New Year’s Eve.

President Donald Trump and other Republicans don’t want an extension; they want a transformational change that eliminates what they say are the unworkable policies and perverse incentives that have plagued the program from the beginning.

It isn’t just Republicans who say Obamacare went awry. Many experts and even some Democrats recognize that while the program did make health coverage more affordable for 24 million Americans at one point, it has essentially backfired.

Here’s how they think Obamacare went off course, how it might be overhauled, and how it upended the wider health insurance market.

Failed Aims

The Affordable Care Act aimed to make health insurance affordable for everyone and lower health care costs across the board.

“The reality of the [Affordable Care Act] could not be more different,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the think tank American Action Forum, said in written comments to a Senate committee on Nov. 19.

Republicans have said the system was poorly designed from its beginning in 2014. Now, some Democrats agree it has not been successful.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) said as much in a Nov. 6 speech imploring colleagues to extend the temporary tax credits, which expire in December.

“I owe you an answer on why it is I am standing here today asking to extend something that was temporary,” Welch said. “Here is the reason: We did fail to bring down the cost of health care.”

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said on Nov. 19: “I think there’s remarkable agreement between Democrats and Republicans. Obamacare failed to give access to all Americans to health care, and Obamacare failed to control health care costs.”

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) speaks with reporters after a Democratic luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 6, 2025. Welch said the temporary tax credits should be extended because the Affordable Care Act has not reduced health care costs. Eric Lee/Getty Images

Rising Costs

When Obamacare was proposed, the Congressional Budget Office projected that enrollment would reach 29 million by 2019 and that the percentage of uninsured adults would drop from 17 percent to 6 percent.

That didn’t happen. By 2019, enrollment had plateaued at around 11.4 million, and about 11 percent of adults remained uninsured.

A year later, Congress altered the program in 2020 to help Americans cope with the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 state of emergency.

The key change was the addition of “enhanced” tax credits that made middle-income households eligible for subsidized health care and allowed some low-income households to get coverage with a zero-dollar premium.

The enhanced credits were offered for two years, beginning in 2021, then extended through 2025.

Enrollment skyrocketed, doubling in five years.

But the cost was climbing rapidly, too.

Even before the enhanced tax credits came online, premiums had more than doubled since 2013, the year before Obamacare began. By 2025, the increase reached nearly 133 percent, about four times the rate of inflation.

Health care costs generally rose dramatically in that decade, partly because of rising wages, consolidation within the industry, an aging population, and the popularity of new and expensive medications, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, some analysts say Obamacare is the key driver of higher premiums.

An Obamacare sign is displayed outside an insurance agency in Miami on Nov. 12, 2025. Data show enrollment has surged since enhanced tax credits began in 2021, roughly doubling over five years. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Market Disruption

With traditional health insurance (and other forms of insurance), the price to the customer is based on the risk to the insurer and the type of coverage they choose.

Obamacare is different, however.

A key selling point of Obamacare was that it largely ended the practice of excluding people from health coverage due to preexisting conditions.

No one would be denied coverage due to illness, and all plans were required to offer the same set of minimum benefits.

As this one-size-fits-all system treats high- and low-risk customers the same, many younger, healthier people left the market, leading to higher premiums.

And because preexisting conditions are not a barrier to coverage, those consumers enter the market only when they become ill, raising costs even higher, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told The Epoch Times.

Those increases spread across the industry because the Affordable Care Act requires insurers to offer Obamacare compliant policies to individuals and small groups in the commercial market.

The solution, Johnson said, is to cover those with existing illnesses in high-risk pools, which allow groups of people within Obamacare to be priced and subsidized separately.

“You have to reestablish those,” Johnson said. “You have to start by covering people with preexisting conditions.

“You bring as much free market back into health care as possible, so people are actually competing for customers with price, customer service, and quality.”

A Spiral Masked by Subsidies

Gross federal subsidies of Obamacare now stand at an estimated $138 billion per year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Those subsidies have masked the rise in premiums, allowing them to rise virtually unchecked, according to Brian Blase, founder of think tank Paragon Health Institute.

“When enrollees pay only a small slice of the premium or no premium at all, insurers face almost no price discipline,” Blase told Senators on Nov. 19.

By 2024, 80 percent of Obamacare customers qualified for plans costing them no more than $10 per month, according to the Treasury Department.

That created a spiral that kept pushing the cost up, Blase said. “Higher premiums created pressure for still more subsidies. More subsidies lock in a high-cost system and permit large insurers and hospital systems to remain inefficient.”

That rising premiums also drove out general market consumers who did not qualify for a subsidy, causing even further increases, said Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Obamacare market was designed for a 50/50 mix of private-sector customers and those who need financial help, Oz said in a Nov. 16 interview with CNN.

“We have priced the systems now so heavily with government subsidies that it crowds out the private shopper,” Oz said.

Medicare and Medicaid Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz speaks at the White House on Nov. 6, 2025. Oz said rising insurance premiums pushed out consumers who did not qualify for subsidies, driving prices even higher. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

Perverse Incentives in the Workplace

Large employers, those with more than 50 employees, face a $2,900 fine for each full-time worker who receives an Obamacare subsidy. That’s to encourage companies to offer employer-sponsored health insurance.

In reality, it may have the opposite effect for employees earning below a certain level, according to Holtz-Eakin.

“You could do the math and figure out that … it made a lot of sense for employers to just stop being in the insurance business, put their workers in the exchanges, and both the worker and the employer could come out ahead,” Holtz-Eakin said.

That appears to have happened in many smaller companies, which have no threat of a fine to induce them to buy insurance for employees.

The year before Obamacare began, 85 percent of companies with 25 to 49 workers offered health insurance for their employees. By 2025, that had fallen to 64 percent.

American Action Forum President Douglas Holtz-Eakin speaks during a Senate Budget Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 25, 2021. Susan Walsh-Pool/Getty Images

Ripe for Fraud

When the enhanced tax credits were introduced in 2021, 42 percent of the uninsured population qualified for a policy with a zero-dollar premium. To boost and maintain enrollment during the health emergency, eligibility checks were relaxed, and reenrollment was automated.

Also, insurance brokers receive a commission for each person they enroll.

Those factors made the program ripe for fraud and abuse, Blase said.

“Many enrollees were signed up without their knowledge or consent,” Blase said. He noted that some unscrupulous vendors promised enrollees cash benefits, and others were moved from one plan to another without their consent.

Approximately 2.8 million people were dually enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program in multiple states in 2024, or simultaneously enrolled in one of those programs and an Obamacare plan, according to federal data.

Also, 40 percent of those enrolled in a zero-premium plan in 2024, more than 4 million people, filed no medical claims.

The national average for zero-claim health insurance customers is 15 percent, according to Paragon Health Institute, which estimates that taxpayers spent $35 billion in 2024 to insure people who were unaware they had coverage.

A patient receives care at a health clinic in Asheville, N.C., on June 27, 2025. Critics say the Affordable Care Act’s one-size-fits-all rules led young, healthy people to pay more, prompting them to leave the market and driving premiums higher. Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images

Government Versus Market Solutions

While Democrats acknowledge that rising health care costs are a problem, they say it’s not related to Obamacare. Proposed solutions generally involve increasing corporate taxes and cracking down on corporate abuses.

“Insurance premiums are skyrocketing,” Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.) told The Epoch Times on Nov. 20. He named government negotiations on drug prices and higher corporate taxes as partial solutions.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said on Nov. 19 that reducing health care costs “means reining in insurance company abuses across the health care system.”

Republicans generally favor market-based reforms that give consumers more control over their health care spending.

“The free market guarantees three things,” Johnson said. “The lowest possible price and cost, the best possible quality, and the best level of customer service.”

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) arrives for a hearing in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Republicans, including Johnson, generally favor market-based reforms that give consumers more control over their health care spending. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“The free market guarantees three things,” Johnson said. “The lowest possible price and cost, the best possible quality, and the best level of customer service.”

Trump has proposed a direct cash payment to low- and middle-income Americans to be used for health care expenses. Cassidy and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) have proposed similar ideas.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) named direct primary care, health sharing ministries, and expanded Health Savings Accounts as ways to empower patients to make their own health decisions.

“I want to free up individuals to have better options,” Roy told The Epoch Times. “If you’re starting there, then you’re going to be transformative, and that will drive prices down,” Roy said.

Congress is expected to vote in mid-December on an extension of enhanced subsidies and possibly other health care reforms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 08:45

Futures Rise As Bullish Sentiment Returns After Rollercoaster Week

US equity futures are higher, but off their overnight highs, as the market looks to rebound from its worst week since early Oct; sentiment was lifted after shares of Alibaba jumped 4.7% in Hong Kong after a strong debut for its AI app; also boosting futs was a spike in December rate cut hopes and bullish comments from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. Still, after a bruising week, and with key macro data delayed until after the December FOMC, bulls are tentative as the S&P is -3.5% MTD, its worst monthly performance since March. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.6%, but moving fast in an extremely illiquid environment. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are higher led a 3% gain for Alphabet. Semis are boosted by AVGO / NVDA up 24 and 40bp. Cyclicals, ex-Materials, are higher and outperforming Defensives. Novo Nordisk slumped 10% in Copenhagen after studies showed an Ozempic pill failed to slow Alzheimer’s progression. Bond yields are lower by 1-3bp as the yield curve bull flattens and the USD trades lower. Bitcoin began the week on the back foot - with a slam shortly after the European open killing hopes for a modest rally - following a prolonged selloff that has put the token on track for its worst month since 2022. Crude is trading near session highs, reversing an earlier slide, following the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders watch US-Ukraine talks for signs on whether a Russia peace deal could increase crude flows. Trump floats a 2-yr ACA extension with increased restrictions on qualifying for the program with additional details expected this week. More Sept macro data will be released this week with the market most likely to care about Retail Sales into Black Friday / Cyber Monday.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Alphabet +3.4%, Tesla +1.8%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta Platforms +0.8%, Microsoft +0.4%, Nvidia +0.6%, Apple is flat)

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3.9% after the company said its re-branded Qwen AI tool hit 10 million downloads in the first week after it became available to the public.
• Biogen Inc. (BIIB), a drugmaker with an Alzheimer’s treatment on the market, rises 4% after Novo Nordisk said a pill version of Ozempic failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease.
• Bristol Myers (BMY) climbs 3.8% after peer developer, Bayer AG, said an experimental stroke-prevention drug showed positive results in a late-stage study. Analysts see positive readthrough to Bristol’s drug, milvexian, with Cantor calling the data a “needed win” for the space.
• Green Dot (GDOT) jumps 17% after entering into agreements to be acquired by Smith Ventures and CommerceOne Financial Corporation in a deal that will split the company’s operations between the two buyers.
• MP Materials shares (MP) are up 2.7% after BMO upgraded its recommendation to outperform, saying the stock’s recent pullback offers a buying opportunity into the long-term theme of the US shoring up its rare-earth supply chain.
• Performance Food Group (PFGC) falls 2% after US Foods says it’s no longer pursuing a combination with the company.
• Primoris Services Corp. (PRIM) slips 1.3% after the construction and engineering services company was initiated at Goldman Sachs with a recommendation of sell.
• WeRide Inc. ADRs (WRD) gain 9% after it narrowed its third-quarter net loss on increased robotaxi orders, as it races for a slice of the growing global market for driverless cabs.

In corporate news, Revolut garnered a $75 billion valuation in its latest share sale, a steep increase from the $45 billion price tag it received last year. US officials are said to be having early discussions on whether to let Nvidia sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. Trump said that no television networks should be able to expand, citing the potential growth of what he considers left-wing news outlets.

Futures gained to start the week as the AI narrative was boosted by strong demand for Alibaba’s relaunched AI app, while comments from NY Fed’s Williams on Friday led investors to boost the odds of a rate cut next month to around 70%. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson reckons the recent stock-market pullback is coming to an end and sees a buying opportunity into 2026.

Still, few expect smooth sailing, and as reported overnight, traders are scrambling for downside protection and paying up to lock in S&P 500 gains, especially when it comes to tech. The cost of options on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF is hovering near its highest level since August 2024 versus that for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. 

“There’s still a positive backdrop for the tech sector,” said Kevin Thozet, member of Carmignac Gestion’s investment committee. “Typically, seasonality is pretty good walking into Thanksgiving and the end of the year. So I’m rather risk-on from now on and into the first-quarter of 2026.”

In hedge fund news, Ray Dalio thinks the ‘pod shop’ hedge fund multi-strat model won’t last. Bill Ackman is said to be revving up a long-anticipated plan to hold an IPO for his Pershing Square Capital Management, the FT reported. 

European stocks edged higher on Monday, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2% to 563.34, after their worst weekly drop since early August.Construction and travel shares outperformed, while insurers lagged. Defense stocks also underperform in Europe, although have been offset by gains in construction, auto and travel names. Rheinmetall led a drop in defense stocks after Ukraine signaled progress in reconciling its position with the US on a potential peace deal with Russia. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Ubisoft shares surge as much as 15%, the most since December, after the French video game producer announced that it had finalized a deal for Tencent to inject €1.16 billion into its Vantage Studios unit.
• Bayer shares jump as much as 12%, to the highest level since October 2024, after the German company said an experimental stroke-prevention drug called asundexian showed positive results in a late-stage clinical study.
• Vistry shares gain as much as 6.5%, the most since June, after Goldman Sachs initiated the UK homebuilder with a buy recommendation.
• Nemetschek shares climb as much as 4.6%, the most since May, as Jefferies started coverage of the German software firm with a buy rating.
• BMW shares gain as much as 2.7% after after Goldman Sachs initiated the automaker with a buy recommendation. Ferrari and Mercedes shares also gained after being rated new buys.
• Julius Baer shares drop as much as 5.9%, the most since May, after the Swiss lender said 2025 profit would be lower than last year.
• Rheinmetall shares fall as much 5.8%, hitting their lowest level since April, as European defense stocks drop on signs of progress in talks to secure Ukraine’s support for a US-backed peace plan. Leonardo, Thales and Saab also fell.
• M&C Saatchi shares drop as much as 18%, hitting their lowest level since 2021, after warning the US government shutdown has affected trading, prompting the advertising agency to cut its outlook.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities opened the week higher on optimism over a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and a rebound in AI-linked Chinese tech shares traded in Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 1.2%, with Alibaba being the biggest contributor to its gain. The company’s shares led a rally in peers after saying its rebranded AI app Qwen hit 10 million downloads in the week after it became available to the public. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 3% intraday after a four-week losing run. Tencent and Samsung Electronics were other major contributors to the regional index’s advance. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Australia rose, while Japan was closed for a holiday. Asian markets have been volatile in recent weeks amid uncertainty over the Fed’s easing as well as doubts over the potential for returns from the AI sector that has been attracting vast sums of money.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is steady. The euro and Swiss franc vie for top spot among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.2% each.

Treasuries inch higher, with US 10-year yields down 1 bp at 4.05%. European government bonds also edge up. In early US trading long-end tenors outperform, slightly flattening 2s10s and 5s30s curves ahead of the 2-year note auction at 1pm New York time. Auction cycle begins a day earlier than usual ahead of Thursday’s US Thanksgiving Day holiday. European bonds trade steady, including Italian debt after the country’s upgrade by Moody’s Ratings on Friday. Long-end yields are richer by 2bp-3bp with front-end tenors little changed, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads about 2bp; 10-year near session low 4.05% is about 1.7bp lower, outperforming bunds and gilts.  $69 billion 2-year note auction has WI yield near 3.50%, within 1bp of last month’s, which tailed by 0.1bp; auction cycle also includes $70 billion 5-year Tuesday and $44 billion 7-year Wednesday

In commodities, WTI crude futures slip 0.7% to $57.70 a barrel as traders weigh the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal after President Zelenskiy’s chief of staff said discussions demonstrated significant progress in reconciling positions. European natural gas futures drop 3% and below €30 a megawatt-hour for the first time in more than a year.  Bitcoin again fell below $86,000 after a weekend rebound and is on track for its worst month since 2022. 

The US economic calendar includes November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (12pm); Fed speaker slate is blank

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.05%
• VIX +0.2 points at 23.58
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1226.52
• euro +0.2% at $1.1537
• WTI crude -0.6% at $57.73/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump is expected to announce as early as Monday a general framework to address healthcare costs, proposed legislation would eliminate zero premium subsidies currently offered under the ACA, according to MS NOW. It was later reported that US President Trump is to sign an executive order on Monday at 4:00pm EST. 
• Bessent said they are seeing prices get better and will see an announcement this week on healthcare costs, while he added that inflation is up because of services, not imported goods. Bessent said he expects some prices to come down in weeks and others in months. Furthermore, he said that Republicans should end the filibuster if Democrats close the government again, while he noted the government shutdown caused a $11BN permanent hit to US GDP.
• Trump's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate.
• Texas officials asked the US Supreme Court to allow a pro-Republican electoral map that a lower court blocked.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citi (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are among those that have been notified by SitusAMC that their client data may have been taken: NYT.
• Japan reaffirmed plans to deploy missiles on an island near Taiwan as tensions smolder with China. BBG
• China unveiled details of a global mining initiative with 19 nations in an apparent response to US efforts to rally allies for an alternative rare earth supply chain. BBG
• Early signs on Japan's annual wage negotiations for next year point to another round of solid pay hikes despite profit pressure from U.S. tariffs, bolstering the case for the BoJ to raise interest rates further. RTRS
• German business confidence unexpectedly dipped this month, Ifo’s expectations index showed. Expectations component coming in at 90.6 for Nov, down from 91.6 in Oct and below the consensus forecast of 91.6. BBG
• US and Ukraine officials say they made progress in peace talks over the weekend, although neither side provide much detail on how the blueprint had evolved from last week’s initial draft. NYT
• Scott Bessent told NBC’s Meet the Press that the Trump administration is working on bringing down US health-care costs and an announcement is planned for this week. BBG
• The Trump administration is working on fallback options in case the Supreme Court strikes down one of his major tariff authorities, looking to replace the levies as quickly as possible. They are studying alternatives, including Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act, which grant the president unilateral ability to impose duties, but these replacements come with risks and could face their own legal challenges. BBG
• President Trump said this week he expects much lower interest rates once he can install a new Federal Reserve chair next May. Growing opposition to a December rate cut inside the central bank suggests he might not get his way. WSJ
• The bond market is straining to absorb a flood of new bonds from tech companies funding their artificial intelligence investments, adding to the recent pressure in markets. Since the start of September, so-called AI hyperscalers Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle have issued nearly $90 billion of investment-grade bonds, according to Dealogic, more than they had sold over the previous 40 months. WSJ
• Hedge funds and mutual funds both currently favor Health Care and Industrials. Hedge funds increased their net tilt to Health Care last quarter by 260 bp, the largest increase among sectors. Goldman

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive following last Friday's advances on Wall St, where sentiment was lifted as dovish comments from Fed's Williams rekindled December rate cut hopes, while 'tremendous' progress was said to have been made during Ukraine peace talks in Geneva on Sunday, although conditions were quiet amid a sparse overnight calendar and with Japanese markets closed for Labor Day. ASX 200 rallied at the open with outperformance in tech and industrials front running the advances, while there were also some M&A related headlines with Qube surging to a record high on Macquarie Asset Management's fresh AUD 11.6bln takeover proposal. Conversely, BHP shares were indecisive and eventually trickled lower after it was reported to have made a renewed approach for Anglo American, which was rejected, prompting BHP to abandon its pursuit again. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp Chinese markets are mixed with gains led by tech strength, although semiconductor names are pressured, including SMIC, following a report on Friday that US President Trump’s team was internally floating selling NVIDIA H200 chips to China.

Top Asian News

• BoJ board member Masu said on Friday that the BoJ is 'close' to the decision to raise rates but can't say which month. Masu stated it is not good for real interest rates to be deeply negative and that Japan's policy rate is lower than the neutral rate, which he strongly believes they need to change quickly, while he said they won't wait until after the Spring wage talks to end in raising rates.
• Japan is said to be open to intervening in the currency market “to mitigate the side effects of a weak yen,” according to a government panel member.
• New Zealand PM Luxon vowed to increase the pension saving scheme, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened stronger across the board, following on from a mostly firmer APAC session and as markets digested the latest geopolitical progress between Ukraine and Russia, whereby US Sec of State Rubio suggested "tremendous progress" has been made. However, as the morning progressed, a hefty bout of pressure took indices to session lows to now display a mixed picture in Europe - a move which lacked catalysts. European sectors opened with a clear cyclical bias. Autos, Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources lead whilst Energy underperforms as the oil complex remains pressure amidst the constructive geopolitical environment; a factor which has led to downside across Defence names, with the likes of Rheinmetall (-2%) on the backfoot.

Top European News

• Smooth End to the Year Now Looks Far Less Likely
• BHP Walks Away From Anglo; Portugal’s TAP
• Europe’s IPO Bankers See a Revival Next Year, for Real This Time

FX

• DXY is a little lower today and trades within a thin 100.08 to 100.29 range. Newsflow has been relatively quiet for the index this morning, but may pick-up later this week as Fed speak and the Fed's Beige Book will give further insight on the health of the economy.
• EUR/USD has picked up a touch since the European cash open, and has recently made a peak of 1.1540 vs the session low of 1.1503. No clear catalyst for the move itself, but potentially as markets digest the latest bout of geopolitical updates between Russia and Ukraine. Elsewhere, no move after a subdued German Ifo set, which saw Expectations slip below the lower end of analyst expectations.
• Muted price action also in GBP/USD, currently within a narrow 1.3086-1.3111 range. Price action this morning has been sideways, with newsflow light and as traders count down their clocks to Wednesday's UK Budget. Sky News recently outlined that the UK's OBR will reportedly say that growth is lower in 2026 and every Parliament year in the Budget. Pertinently, the Treasury hopes to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• JPY is the underperformer today, likely thanks to the broader risk-tone, but with Japanese participants also away on holiday. Currently towards the upper end of a 156.43 to 156.93 range. Weekend newsflow has been light aside from commentary via Japanese government panel member, who suggested that PM Takaichi is open to JPY intervention. A report which has seemingly been shrugged off by markets, as the JPY continues to weaken.
• Antipodeans are mildly lower vs the Dollar, with no real catalysts driving things for the moment; focus remains on the RBNZ announcement on Wednesday, where a 25bps cut is widely expected.
• Barclays FX month-end rebalancing: strong USD buying against all majors.

Fixed Income

• Bond price action is lacklustre this morning. Overnight action was subdued as Japanese participants were away for holiday, and the European morning has lacked material newsflow to shift sentiment.
• USTs are trading rangebound in a tight 113-05+ to 113-09 range. Trade updates this morning have been non-incremental, with some focus on a Bloomberg piece suggesting that the White House is preparing a tariff fallback ahead of the court ruling. The rest of the day is fairly light, aside from some Tier 2 US data - more focus will be on the coming days, where markets will get more Fed speak, Retail Sales, Weekly Claims and the Beige Book.
• Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks, but ultimately following the above and trades within a 128.81 to 129.00 range. This morning German paper saw a slight pick-up and attempted (but failed) to lift above the 129.00 mark, alongside pressure in WTI and Brent (spurred on by geopol progress). Thereafter, some sideways trade before then catching another slight bid, as the European risk tone slipped off best levels. Elsewhere, no move to a subdued German Ifo survey, which saw New Expectations slip below the most pessimistic of analyst expectations.
• Gilts opened higher by three ticks and now flat, echoing the bias in core peers. A lot of final weekend press reporting around the budget, the main developments focused on pensions. Earlier, Sky News reported that the OBR is set to lower the growth view for every parliamentary year, Chancellor Reeves reportedly to argue this is not due to the government (reminder, Reeves recently identified Brexit as the structural factor behind the challenging UK environment). Furthermore, the Treasury is said to be looking to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• BTPs are firmer by 22 ticks at most, notching a 121.05 peak. Following Moody's upgrading Italy to Baa3 (prev. Baa2), Outlook Stable (prev. Positive) on Friday.
• OATs are firmer, but only modestly so, awaiting fiscal updates. On Friday, the Revenue section of the budget bill failed in the National Assembly. As such, the text now goes to the Senate and Parliament has until the 23rd of December to deliberate it. Now, attention turns to the Social Security Financing Bill, a joint committee set to rule on it on Wednesday before it then (if it passes) goes to the National Assembly and then Senate for approval. Politico sources report a "one in three chance" that the joint committee would approve it. Unsurprisingly, pension reform is the sticking point.
• German Finance Agency's Diemer says 2026 issuance is likely to exceed EUR 500bln, via Econostream. Adds: Same issuance structure in 2026 but with higher volumes. Higher term premia will be considered in determining the 2026 maturity profile. Confident that no mid-year revisions to issuance plans will be necessary. Will continue to use syndications in 2026 but will focus on longer maturities. Says that they see only very isolated structural demand for ultra long bonds, will not launch a strategic market presence there for the foreseeable future. Issuance in foreign currencies is not currently planned.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent were initially rangebound, but saw negative downticks at the start of the European sessions, and then extended on that pressure taking the complex down to fresh session lows. Brent Feb'26 made a trough of US 61.34/bbl vs peak of USD 62.18/bbl. Downside today has been facilitated by the positive mood music via US Secretary of State Rubio, who suggested a meeting with Ukrainian officials had led to "tremendous progress".
• Dutch TTF Dec'25 has taken a hit following the talks in Geneva, trading below EUR 30/MWh for the first time since May 2024. After opening at EUR 30.06/MWh, Dutch TTF has faltered and remains near session lows at EUR 29.20/MWh.
• Spot XAU fell to a trough of USD 4040/oz at the start of the APAC session following the positive risk tone from the Geneva talks. However, XAU has turned around and is currently trading just shy of session highs at USD 4078/oz, benefitting in part from the risk tone souring a touch after the European open. Note, XAU in a thin sub-40/oz band.
• 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.77k-10.81k/t band to start the European session but briefly dipped to a trough of USD 10.75k/t as global equities pulled back from best, despite a lack of specific newsflow.
• A majority Chinese-owned plant at Indonesia’s most important nickel site is cutting back production due to its tailing site being nearly full, according to Bloomberg citing sources

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s military said it killed a Hamas commander in Gaza City, while the Israeli military confirmed that Hezbollah military leader Ali Tabtabai was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Beirut.
• Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz discussed the situation in the Middle East and noted their support for the comprehensive peace plan to end the war in Gaza, while they reaffirmed support for Ukraine and underscored that any settlement must include Ukraine’s involvement.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are grateful for all efforts by US President Trump and the US to end the war. Zelensky said they also thank Europe, the G7 and the G20 for helping them protect lives, while they are working on every point and every step to achieve peace. Zelensky also commented that there are signals that the US team is hearing them.
• US President Trump said ‘no’ when asked if his offer is the final one for Ukraine. Trump separately commented that the Ukrainian leadership has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts and that Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said we’ve had the most productive and meaningful meeting so far and made good progress. Rubio said there is still some work left to do, and their teams will revert on Sunday night with more updates, while Rubio added this will have to be signed off by their presidents, but he is comfortable about that. Rubio later commented that they made a tremendous amount of progress and have a foundational document, while they were able to narrow down the points of the plan, but added that work remains to be done. Furthermore, he said they are much further ahead than when they began on Sunday morning and noted there are some outstanding issues involving the role of the EU and NATO, but stated that none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.
• US official said that talks between US and Ukrainian officials so far have been productive and even conclusive in some areas, while it was also reported that US and Ukrainian officials were discussing a possible trip by Ukrainian President Zelensky to Washington to discuss the peace plan, possibly this week, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• European leaders’ summit on Ukraine stated that they believe the US 28-point peace plan required additional work and they are concerned by proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, while they are clear on the principle that Ukraine’s borders must not be changed by force.
• European counterproposal to the US’s Ukraine peace plan proposes that the Ukrainian military be capped at 800,000 in peacetime and stated that Ukraine joining NATO depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist, while NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime. The counterproposal also stated that NATO jets will be stationed in Poland and Ukraine will receive a US guarantee that mirrors NATO’s Article 5, as well as noted that Ukraine will be compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates for damage to Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means, while negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the line of contact, and Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
• White House readout stated there was an extensive and productive meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, while it added that the Ukrainian delegation affirmed all of their principal concerns and believes the current draft reflects their national interests. Furthermore, it stated Ukrainians underscored that the strengthened security guarantee architecture meaningfully addresses their core strategic requirements and they agreed to continue consultations as the agreements move toward final refinement.
• Nordic-Baltic Eight Leaders’ joint statement noted that they spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky and stated that Russia has so far not committed to a ceasefire or any steps leading to peace, while they will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.
• Russia’s Ryabkov said regarding chances of another Trump-Putin meeting that the issue is on the agenda and nothing can be ruled out, while he added that progress in building dialogue between Russia and the US is impressive and that contacts are yielding results.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Petrivske in Ukraine’s Donetsk and took control of the Tikhe and Odradne regions in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS. It was also reported that Russian forces captured Nove Zaporizhzhia and Zvanivka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
• Ukrainian drones struck a heat and electricity station in Moscow region’s Shatura, which caused a fire.
• Ukraine's Parliamentary speaker announces a series of Ukraine's red lines in negotiations in regards to the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia's Kremlin says no official information has been received from the Geneva talks and no meeting has been planned between Russia and the US this week.

Geopolitics: Other

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China urges Japan to reflect on and correct mistakes as soon as possible and not become obsessed, while he added that Japan’s leader sent a wrong signal of trying to intervene in the Taiwan issue by force and crossed the red line that should not be touched. Wang also said that if Japan continues down this path, countries have the right to re-examine Japan’s historical crimes. It was separately reported that a senior Japanese government spokeswoman said China’s claim that Japan has altered its position is entirely baseless, while Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said during a visit to the island of Yonaguni in Okinawa that Japan is on track to deploy missiles to the island, which is near Taiwan.
• US is poised to start a new phase of Venezuela-related operations and is weighing options, including to overthrow Venezuela’s government, while covert operations are expected to come first, according to officials cited by Reuters.- Armed bandits kidnapped more than 300 students from a Catholic school in Nigeria on Friday, while it was reported on Sunday that fifty of the kidnapped students have escaped.
• White House said South Africa is refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency and has weaponised its G20 presidency to undermine the G20’s founding principles.

US Event Calendar

12:00pm ET: November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It should be another busy, but holiday shortened, week after a volatile one last week as markets whipsawed around big moves in Fed pricing and AI bubble risk fears. The highlight for me is that at the end of the week I’ll be allowed to putt for a maximum of 10 minutes a day, 6 weeks after back fusion surgery. That’ll still be another 4.5 months minimum from then before I can swing a club in anger though! My wife has been despairing at me as I’ve been looking at industrial torches on Amazon that will allow me to putt at my local golf course in the evening. I’ve found one that is the nearest thing to a portable lighthouse that will give me 100 yards or so when I’m allowed to chip and pitch. Black Friday is coming at the right time.

Before we get to Thanksgiving, in the US, delayed post-shutdown data will be compressed into the first three days because of the holiday. Tomorrow brings September’s retail sales and PPI, followed on Wednesday by jobless claims and durable goods orders. The claims data will be particularly important as they cover the November survey week, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lean heavily on these figures and other alternative indicators ahead of its December meeting, given there’ll be no more payroll data prior to the FOMC.

Globally, attention will turn to inflation reports from Europe and Japan, as well as the long-awaited UK Budget, which could prove pivotal for the country’s fragile fiscal outlook. Perhaps the most significant geopolitical development will be Ukraine’s response to the US ultimatum to accept the 28-point peace plan agreed with Russia, with an ultimatum set for before Thanksgiving on Thursday, although the US seem to have indicated over the weekend that there is some room for negotiation (more below).

Let's start with the US, and for tomorrow's September PPI data, benign prints are expected by our economists for headline (+0.2% vs -0.1% last) and core (+0.2% vs -0.1%), echoing recent CPI trends. Categories feeding into core PCE will be in focus, with forecasts pointing to a 0.26% monthly gain, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%. This will be the last inflation update before the Fed’s December decision, as October CPI and November CPI have been pushed back to mid-December.

Retail sales are forecast by our economists to show modest gains after strong summer spending: headline +0.1% (vs +0.6% last), ex-auto +0.2% (vs +0.7%), while retail control may dip slightly (-0.1% vs +0.7%). Even so, Q3 retail control growth is tracking at 6.8% annualised —the strongest since early 2023—supporting expectations for robust goods spending once GDP data is published. Factory sector updates arrive Wednesday with durable goods orders for September and the Chicago PMI for November (45.0 vs 43.8). Headline orders are expected to fall (-2.4% vs +2.9%), but ex-transportation (+0.2% vs +0.4%) and core orders (+0.2% vs +0.6%) should post moderate gains, implying a solid 5.3% annualised increase for Q3. Don’t forget Black Friday where we will start to see early evidence of how strong consumer spending is into the important Christmas period. No Fed speakers are scheduled at this stage. The blackout period begins on Saturday ahead of the December meeting but with Thanksgiving on Thursday, it will start a lot earlier than it normally would.  

European data highlights include preliminary November CPI prints for Germany (2.6% YoY expected), France (0.92%) and Italy (1.23%) on Friday, alongside Q3 GDP releases for Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Germany’s Ifo survey kicks off the week today, followed by consumer confidence on Thursday and retail sales Friday. France will also report confidence and spending data that day. In the UK, the Autumn Budget on Wednesday will be the main event. Expectations point to roughly £35bn in fiscal consolidation, marking a second historic tax-raising budget under Chancellor Reeves. See our economist Sanjay Raja’s preview here in what is one of the most hotly anticipated UK budgets in recent memory. Sanjay may need a lie down in a dark room after Wednesday as it’s fair to say he’s been in high demand of late.  

From central banks, the ECB will publish its October meeting account on Thursday and its consumer expectations survey Friday. In New Zealand, the RBNZ meets Wednesday, with a 25bps rate cut anticipated. Elsewhere, Australia reports October CPI (Wednesday), Canada releases Q3 GDP, and China publishes October industrial profits. Japan’s focus will be on November Tokyo CPI and October activity data (Friday). With Q3 earnings season winding down, results from Alibaba, Meituan, Analog Devices, Dell and HP will draw attention.

In terms of weekend developments, the news flow has escalated very quickly with regards to the war in Ukraine. After news broke on Thursday of a 28 point peace plan that was aligned following meetings between US envoy Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, politicians and diplomats have been scrambling after being caught off guard. Trump appeared to give Kyiv a deadline of Thanksgiving (this Thursday) to accept the proposals, though later said that it was “not my final offer”. Last night we heard positive comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio after talks with Ukrainian officials in Geneva, with the sides drafting “an updated and refined peace framework” and agreeing “to continue intensive work” in the coming days. Meanwhile, European leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 conference in South Africa, with outlets including Reuters reporting a European counter-proposal that pushes back on elements of the US draft such as territorial concessions. So, plenty of diplomatic moving parts to watch in the next few days.

The mood in Asia continues to improve after a bounce on Friday as Fed cut expectations spiked higher. The Hang Seng (+1.95%) is leading gains, buoyed by strength in technology shares, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.25%) is also experiencing a significant increase. The KOSPI (+0.19%) has given up most of its initial gains after having traded +1.56% higher at the outset. Elsewhere, Chinese shares are largely flat. S&P 500 (+0.53%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.75%) futures are continuing Friday's momentum while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, meaning that US Treasuries haven't traded yet. European stock futures are around three quarters of a percent higher.

Recapping last week now and markets saw high volatility and weakness, driven especially by concerns about AI valuations, but initially selling-off on fears the Fed wouldn’t have enough data to cut in December. Ironically, that sell-off promoted an increase in the probability of a cut in just over two weeks. The S&P 500 declined -1.95% despite a +0.98% rally on Friday and the NASDAQ was down -2.74% (+0.88% Friday). The AI weakness also pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -5.94% lower (+0.86% Friday). Nvidia saw huge swings, down -5.94% even as it revealed strong earnings and revenue guidance in its earnings on Wednesday night. It fell -0.97% on Friday despite a brief rally on news that the Trump administration was considering allowing it to sell H200 chips to China. Alphabet was the main exception from the tech weakness, rallying +8.41% (+3.53% Friday) following news that Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the company and on positive reviews of its new Gemini-3 AI model. The meant Alphabet overtook Microsoft (-7.46% on the week) as the world’s third most valuable company. Amazon was down -5.97% (+1.63% Friday) in a week they issued a $15bn bond, the first in three years. So, lots of volatility within the Mag-7 (-1.94% on the week; +0.81% Friday). Oracle’s equity fell -5.66% on Friday in a rallying market, while its 5yr CDS widened +11bps to 119bps. The VIX index saw its highest weekly close since late April at 23.43 despite a -2.99pt decline on Friday (+3.60pts on the week).  

Given the turmoil in equities, investors are now pricing a stronger chance of Fed rate cuts, with a December cut 63% priced, having been at 43% the week before. Rate cut pricing ticked up on Friday after NY Fed President Williams said he saw room for another cut “in the near term”. Earlier in the week, the probability went as low as 27%, following the BLS announcement that there wouldn't be an October payrolls report, and that the November report would be delayed to December 16, after the FOMC decision. Treasuries rallied amid the risk-off mood, with the 2yr yield falling -9.8bps to 3.51% (-2.4bps Friday) and the 10yr yield down -8.4bps to 4.06% (-2.0bps Friday). In credit, US IG spreads widened +3bps, with the HY spreads +10bps higher as well.   

Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-2.21%) saw its biggest decline in 16 weeks, including a -0.33% fall on Friday following a softer euro area manufacturing PMI print (49.7 vs 50.1 expected). The DAX (-3.29% on the week, -0.80% Friday) led this decline, while the FTSE 100 (-1.64% on the week, +0.13% Friday) saw a relative outperformance despite the November composite PMI falling to 50.5 (vs. 51.8 expected), driven by a downside surprise in services. European yields were mostly lower, with the 10yr bunds down -1.7bps and BTPs down -1.4bps, while OATs were up +1.4bps. Gilt yields were also -2.8bps lower with investors waiting for the Autumn budget later this week. European credit spreads (+2bps for IG, +9bps for HY) saw similar moves as in the US. 

The negative mood was also affected by a sell-off in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin falling -10.37% to its lowest level since late April. The market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies now stands at just under $3trn, down from a high of $4.4trn in October. Meanwhile, oil prices fell as traders dialled down the risks to Russian oil supply following news of the 28-point peace plan proposed by the US. Brent crude finished the week -2.84% lower to $62.56/bbl (-1.29% Friday).

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 08:37

 

 

One of the biggest challenges for investors is recognizing exactly how little we know about what the future holds. It is a rare moment in market history when what comes next is extremely obvious to most investors.

A few examples – and feel free to push back on these – include the post-1987 crash, the peak Dotcom/Tech bubble in Q1 2000, the subprime mortgage boom and bust that led into the Great Financial Crisis, and the March 2009 lows.

Those examples may appear obvious in hindsight. Recall how few people bought in circa March and April 2009; by October, the move off the GFC lows was being called “The Most Hated Rally” in stock market history. Fast forward three years to 2012, and strategists were the most bearish they had been on equities since 1985.

Too many people fail to recognize how challenging it is to identify these generational market turning points in real time. This is important when groups of people declare future outcomes with both abundant confidence and a lack of humility.

Recall the now-infamous Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s December 5, 1996 Irrational Exuberance speech. The market moved modestly upwards for another two years before exploding higher in late September 1998 (LTCM bailout), and then again in October 1999 (Pre-Y2K Fed liquidity injection).

 

With the benefit of hindsight, that now seems More like “Rational” than “Irrational” exuberance. The S&P500 gained 88.6%, but the more speculative Tech and Dotcom sector, represented by the Nasdaq 100, gained an astonishing 454.5%.

Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market in positive directions for years to come.

As my colleague Ben Carlson asked, “Is this 1996 or 1999?” I floated a broader question last month:

When was the last time the crowd, the media, or Wall Street accurately identified a bubble in real time?

By definition, it takes a crowd to drive prices to bubblicious levels. It is a challenge for the crowd to simultaneously speculate on a bubble and accurately identify one as it inflates.

See the Goldman Sachs’ chart of Forward P/E ratios by theme (at top). Some sectors are extremely overpriced—new IPOs and Meme stocks are trading at ridiculous forward earnings, mainly because they have very little or no earnings. The S&P 493—S&P 500 minus the Magnificent 7— however, is not in bubble territory at 20.7 P/E. Pricey, yes, but not bubblicious.

Given the profit growth over the past few years (and expectations of lower interest rates), can investors rationally believe that prices are not entirely irrational?

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity observes “Meme stocks have lost some 60 P/E points, while the big players (Mag 7) trade at a [more] reasonable 32.6x and the S&P 493 at 20.7x. For the large caps these are not bubble valuations.”

That is where we are today: A 15-year rally that was initially built on a market that was cut in half (2007-09), followed by a post-crash recovery that was helped along by zero-interest rate policy, leading into the pandemic, which itself was helped along by the single largest fiscal stimulus as a percentage of GDP since World War II. Today, we see AI driving a market that continues to post record earnings. There is enough rationality that a run-of-the-mill 5% pullback sends the VIX up to 25, with genuine fear amongst traders and policymakers.

The key question investors face is this:

Is Artificial Intelligence more like the internet on the economy, where it continues to boost economic activity and efficiencies long after its introduction? Or are we in a period of malinvestment and reckless speculation that leads to a bubble and a market crash? Both?

You can cherry-pick charts that show a bubble or not.

Consider this chart (via the Washington Post) of Nvidia’s revenues. $57 billion per quarter in revenue is nothing like what we saw among the DotComs in the late 1990s; note the Magnificent 7 collectively pull in more than $2 trillion annually in revenues.

 

But the next chart is the one that I found especially compelling: Will investments in AI payoff to the tune of $650 billion in revenues above current levels by 2030?

 

If you suspect you know the answer to that, you know how to deploy your capital. If you are confident you know the answer, the odds suggest you may be overplaying your hand.

 

 

 

Previously:
The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History (October 8, 2009)

Understanding Investing Regime Change (October 25, 2023)

A Short History of Bubbles (October 24, 2025)

The Magnificent 493 (August 12, 2025)

All Time Highs Are Bullish (June 26, 2025)

The Stock Market Remains Undefeated (May 19, 2025)

RealTime Bubble Checklist (October 16, 2025)

 

The post Rational Exuberance? appeared first on The Big Picture.

The post Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart appeared first on CEPR.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 15.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.3%), and down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.3%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 21st, inventory was at 830 thousand (7-day average), compared to 840 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube