Since it’s commencement time, I wanted to share a few thoughts on serendipity.

I have been working in finance since 1996 — three decades. My views on nearly everything have evolved over that time: Indexing, crowd behavior, trading, media, hedge funds, fixed income, private equity, technology, success, and money.

The biggest belief shift I have made over that time is on the subject of “Luck.”

I downplayed the role of serendipity in my youth, but I have since come to recognize it as far weightier and more meaningful than I realized. Why? Because we all want to live in an orderly world governed by cause and effect. We need to believe that our efforts, intelligence, and skills will lead to good outcomes.

“Hard work is its own reward” blah, blah, blah.

But the simple truth is that random events can and do lead to unanticipated outcomes that drive much of what occurs. We underestimate fortune, randomness, and chance at our own peril.

I have been hosting the Masters in Business podcast for 12 years now and have interviewed 650 notable guests, including many Nobel laureates, CEOs, billionaires, fund managers, venture capitalists, private equity investors, and assorted celebrities. The first time a billionaire told me how much luck was involved in their success, I dismissed it as a case of “false humility.” But after the 5th and then 10th mention of luck by wildly differing guests, I could no longer dismiss this so easily.

My interviews with Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital, and famed for his “Chairman’s Memos” were instructive.1 The first time he mentioned his good fortune, I pushed back, asking, “What about intelligence, hard work, and perseverance?”

His answer:

“Everybody in my MBA class at the University of Chicago was very smart and very hard working. But hard work and intelligence are mere table stakes. Not everybody has fortune smile on them; not everybody gets lucky.”

That very honest and sincere answer was persuasive; it made me realize I might be underestimating the role of luck in my own career.

As I thought about it, I recalled numerous examples from my own life.

• Calling the bottom in March 2009 was as much a result of the school calendar — my wife is a teacher — as anything else. We were away on vacation when the market crossed my (infamous) target of “Dow 6,800” in March 2009. When we returned home that Sunday, I had already had time to quietly digest this while away from the markets. The timing of my Sunday evening “Cover Your Shorts and Go Long” missive was pure calendar serendipity; Henry Blodget invited my to come on TV the next day to repeat the message, and that was literally the day of the lows.2 My reward was 100s of people asking me to manage 100s of millions of their dollars.

• At a conference in Coronado Island, I sat at the pool next to a young kid named Josh Brown. We started to chat, and it was clear to me he was something special, overlooked by Wall Street. Bringing him from the Sell Side to the Buy Side was an easy decision – precipitated by the random choice of which poolside lounge chair I picked.

• Launching the firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management, in September 2013 was an inevitable result of 1) my frustration in working for other people and 2) my frustration with how Wall Street managed client monies. Oh, and launching 6 months after a new bull market started – signified by every major index leaping above their prior 2000-13 highs – as one of the best 15-year periods (and counting) of returns (2010-2025) was ramping up? Pure chance.

There were other somewhat random events that led to good outcomes:

-At my High School Senior Prom, the “last song” of the night was announced. I turned to the girl sitting behind me and asked her if she wanted to dance — and to my surprise she said “Yes.” That “girl” has been my wife for the past 34 years…

-In the summer of 2003, I was invited to beta test Six Apart’s “Typepad” – this new thingie called a “blog.” I moved my publishing from Geocities to Typepad and named it after William Goldman’s book, “The Big Picture.” That was 44,000 posts ago. But for someone noticing my real-time notes about what happened on September 11th, this would not have happened.

-My mom was a real estate agent; that’s how and why I began tracking various housing data points in the 2000s. (Most of Wall Street did not follow RRE closely).  But for that, I would not have noticed that the 2000s economy was kinda backwards – it was being driven by ultra-low rates driven and real estate, not true economic growth.

-My real time coverage of the great financial crisis was eventually turned into the book “Bailout Nation,” published in 2009. That led to a column on Personal Finance and Policy for the Washington Post beginning in 2011. From that, came a Bloomberg View column, and then in the spring of 2014, I began a new project for Bloomberg Radio: Masters in Business was Bloomberg’s first podcast.

That is a brief history of my own good fortune. When I see it in print, it’s clear to me that hard work, skill, perseverance, persistence, insight, creativity, etc., are all the minimum costs just to enter the arena. Table stakes, so to speak. Once you’re there, you still need to get lucky.

There are lots of aphorisms in the good fortune space that I find contradictory.

“Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.”

That assumes opportunity comes your way, and that is not always the case.

“You make your own luck.”

I like Ed Smith’s response3 to this:

“Making your own luck is self-contradictory. The definition of luck is something outside your control. So if you are “making your own luck,” whatever you’re doing intentionally clearly does not fall into the category of luck.”

“Increase your surface area for luck.” 4

I guess you can do more things that might have serendipitous outcomes, but isn’t that just saying “work hard, be persistent, and persevere?” It is, as Smith noted, not in the category of luck.

I have no insight into how to have the Fates smile upon you. But I can think of thousands of things you can do that would be helpful to your career.

Here are my top 10 things that helped me “get lucky” professionally:

1. Curiosity: Be genuinely interested in many things, including those that may not be related to your career; Be multi-talented;

2. Effort: Work hard! If possible, harder than everybody else. Sports coaches know that hard work beats talent (almost all of the time).

3. Mastery: Find something you really like and spend lots of time and effort mastering it. Becoming excellent at a single thing often spills over to other areas.

4. Auto-Didact: Read voraciously. Build a library, learn from the masters.

5. Forward-looking: Your academic background matters less and less the longer you are out of school. Stop stressing about it.

6. Add Value: Create something of value that others want — and are even willing to pay for;

7. Network: Meet as many people in your field as you can. Learn from them, and when possible, be genuinely helpful.

8. Specialize: Develop a specialty. Hone that skillset/knowledge until it is razor sharp;

9. Be Prepared: “Once in a lifetime” opportunities come along more frequently than you imagine; Be prepared for when those opportunities present themselves;

10. Serendipity: Be lucky.

 

This is what has worked for me. I hope these ideas will work for you . . .

 

 

Footnotes:

1. “Getting Lucky” by Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, Jan 16, 2014.

2. “When Barry Ritholtz Talks, People Listen,” By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, March 11, 2009

3. “In Defence of Luck” by Ed Smith, Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, March 12, 2014

4. “How to increase your surface area for luck” Cate Hall, July 23, 2025

 

The post Serendipity: The Role of Luck in Your Life and Career appeared first on The Big Picture.

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Why the Enormous IPOs Won’t Sink the Market. This is a potential stock market sea change. For the past 23 years, the supply of shares has been shrinking. Companies have bought back gobs of stock while turning stingy on dividends—they like that buybacks don’t require an ongoing commitment. Fewer companies have gone public, and more have been taken private, resulting in thousands fewer listed companies since the mid-1990s. (Barron’s)

• Predicting AI job exposure: Many people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and assign scores, build charts, and map that against the progress of LLMs. I think this is mostly impossible: you don’t know how the jobs will change, you don’t know what else will change around this, and you can’t measure work like that anyway. (Benedict Evans) see also A Minimum Wage Natural Experiment Has Been Running for Over a Decade: Arin Dube on the U.S. minimum-wage natural experiment hiding in plain sight. The estimated employment elasticities keep shrinking; the policy debate keeps not noticing. When 30 States Raised Minimum Wages, What Happened to Pay and Jobs? (Arin’s Substack)

• Bitcoin’s long-term return may actually be close to zero — and that could be just what it needs: MarketWatch runs the math on Bitcoin’s long-term expected return and lands somewhere near zero. Counterintuitive piece worth reading even if you disagree. (MarketWatch)

• How Americans Caught Gold Fever Again: New Yorker on the cultural return of gold-as-savings as faith in the dollar slips at the margins. The metal always tells you something about the moment. Soaring gold prices, viral panning influencers, macho gold-mining reality shows, and Trump’s gold obsession have ignited a craze for prospecting not seen since 1849. (New Yorker)

• Parents are ‘going broke on berries’: WaPo on the genuinely insane berry inflation hitting young families. Trivial-sounding category, real budget bite — and a useful proxy for ag-supply-chain stress. (Washington Post)

• For the first time, wind and solar generated more electricity than gas worldwide in April 2026: Rapid wind and solar growth is weakening the case for imported gas even during the latest energy crisis. Ember marks the crossover: renewables passed gas globally in April. A milestone that arrived faster than even the optimists had penciled in. (Ember)

• Americans Are Keeping Their Cars Longer Than Ever—and Remaking the Auto Industry: Automakers, dealers and repair shops are changing business practices to adapt to a new normal: the 13-year-old car. WSJ on the average vehicle age hitting a new high and what it does to the OEM business model. Service and parts are now the cycle. (Wall Street Journal) see also This group just built affordable housing in SF for half the price and twice as fast: Apartments for formerly homeless seniors at 1633 Valencia St. show what can happen when developers and lenders are aligned from the start. (San Francisco Standard)

• L’Affaire Siloxane How antiperspirant fumes nearly got NASA to evacuate the space station. Cegłowski on the unfolding silicone-additive scandal nobody’s quite covering. Patient, methodical, and very Cegłowski. (Mars For The Rest Of Us)

• Nearly Everyone, Everywhere, Veers Left When Walking: Researchers are at a loss for why people across cultures and ages, regardless of their dominant hand, have a natural bias toward wandering in a counterclockwise direction. NYT on the surprisingly universal human bias toward counterclockwise drift. A small but charming reminder that we’re stranger creatures than we realize. Researchers are at a loss for why people across cultures and ages, regardless of their dominant hand, have a natural bias toward wandering in a counterclockwise direction. (New York Times)

• Before Taylor Swift Bought Her House, Rebekah Harkness’s Parties Were the Stuff of Legend: Vanity Fair on the wild Newport socialite whose Rhode Island mansion Taylor Swift now owns. The house has more lore per square foot than most museums. A closer look at the fabulous Rhode Island heiress’s unforgettable midcentury soirees—which might meet their match if Swift and Travis Kelce hold their own wedding at her old estate. (Vanity Fair)

Video of the day: The reason this NYC cup has quietly disappeared

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT Group and Chair of EQT Asia. EQT is a purpose-driven global investment organization with over $310 billion in total assets under management, making it the largest private markets firm headquartered outside the United States.

 

Section 301 tariffs to offset Section 122 expiration

Source: BofA Securities

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UBS Checks With Major Restaurant Franchisees Reveal Troubling Consumer Trends

In a continuation of our note on the health of America's restaurant industry, we cite UBS analyst Dennis Geiger for a second straight week, as his coverage of the consumer and restaurant sectors has been spot on. Sentiment toward chain eateries remains "generally cautious," with macro pressures, elevated gas prices, and weak demand among lower-income consumers continuing to weigh on traffic and sales trends.

Last week, Geiger warned, "Challenged traffic and sales trends likely reflect depressed consumer sentiment across several cohorts, elevated gas prices, and other macro headwinds. We are more cautious on restaurant industry trends heading into 2H26, assuming near-term headwinds persist, rebate check benefits fade, and the risk that gas prices stay elevated."

Adding more color to the still-difficult backdrop across the restaurant industry, Geiger and his team held discussions with management teams from several leading restaurant brands to gain deeper insight into evolving consumer spending trends:

Brand & franchisee discussions highlight performance pressured by macroeconomic factors

Our latest discussions with several brands / mgmt teams and select franchisees highlight macro headwinds and elevated gas prices that continue to weigh on industry results. Select brands more exposed to lower income consumers continue to face sales pressures, with our recent discussions with Wingstop and McDonald's franchisees highlighting the current challenges:

1. Wingstop franchisees noted continued negative sss & traffic performance, highlighting multiple potential factors, including: i) ongoing macro pressures impacting key customer cohorts; ii) challenges of lapping robust sales growth in past years, including key sales initiatives such as delivery and marketing growth & expansion into sports; iii) potential customer chicken category fatigue given focus on chicken by most QSR peers as beef costs remain elevated; iv) cannibalization in select highly penetrated markets, particularly via the delivery channel; v) broader QSR value / promo activity; and vi) potentially less social media buzz recently than in years past. However, expectations are that trends should benefit from the world cup in June & July and potentially inflect positive later this year or in early '27. Franchisees noted opportunities exist to enhance the current marketing strategy to increase the brand's relevance and improve messaging surrounding Smart Kitchen and the ability to increase speed / throughput without sacrificing food quality. Additionally, value remains an important focus, with opportunities to promote and highlight value. That said, franchisees indicated still elevated demand to open new stores given returns that remain attractive, without material margin concerns.

2. McDonald's franchisees highlighted choppy performance thus far in 2Q, largely reflecting difficult April comparisons and given the current macro environment, with gas prices having a particularly negative impact on consumer demand among a core lower income cohort. Operators noted challenging macro conditions could continue, while comparisons are difficult in 2H. Despite pressures, our discussions suggest franchisees remain optimistic about the outlook for the brand and sales trends as gas prices eventually ease, with several drivers that could help lift sss including: i) recent launch of specialty beverages, including dirty sodas & refreshers which is driving avg check higher, with energy expected in Aug and other menu innovation coming (ie snack wraps news; new sandwich event around chicken); ii) strong marketing / campaigns (ie world cup meal w/ collectibles off to a solid start; Home Alone meal expected in 4Q); iii) compelling value platforms, with the Under $3 Menu and $4 Breakfast Meal Deal expected to gain guest count traction over the coming quarters; and iv) solid gains from digital / delivery & the loyalty platform. Additionally, franchisees noted an increased brand emphasis on utilizing technology & being more digital forward while also improving hospitality. Strategic plans from the Worldwide Convention appear to be focused on the right areas to drive longer-term traffic and sales share gains.

Three Important Facts About the Space

1. Restaurant inflation down slightly in May; Grocery pricing gap grew modestly

Total food inflation was down slightly for the broader food complex in May (3.1% vs. 3.2% April) per gov't data, w/ food away-from-home (FAFH) inflation down slightly m/m at 3.5% (vs. 3.6% in April) while food at-home (FAH) price inflation also decreased to 2.7% (vs. 3.0% in April). May restaurant price inflation remained above grocery (~80 bps), w/ the gap increasing from April (~60 bps). Limited service pricing was 3.3% in May (~flat vs April), while full-service was 3.8% (~flat vs April). We expect restaurant pricing to continue to ease modestly over the coming quarters as higher pricing levels roll off.

2. Value differs by age cohort; Rising prices pressuring restaurant traffic

Recent Technomic industry insights highlighted several industry themes, including: i) value differs by age cohort w/ the Baby Boomer & Gen X consumer more focused on quick service & high quality items, while younger customers also weigh other factors including brand identity, digital convenience, and social values. ii) Rising prices are likely still impacting restaurant industry traffic, with 83% of surveyed consumers noticing higher purchase prices & 63% cooking more at home as a result. Over the NTM, 45% of respondents plan to visit restaurants less, while 38% are actively looking for promotional offers.

3. Expect greater impacts from GLP-1s drugs on restaurants over time

UBS Consumer hosted another call with Michael Yee, UBS Global Head of Biotechnology Research, that highlighted his ~$133BN global GLP-1 market forecast by '30. Total obesity patients treated by GLP-1 in the US are projected to grow from ~5MM in '25 (or 1% of population) to >10MM by '30 (or ~5% of adult population), with upside to the forecasts from new drugs and potentially better convenience and fewer side effects. Specifically, the recently launched GLP-1 oral pills could grow to ~20% of the total GLP- 1 market longer-term. That said, the oral pills are not expected to be game changing near-term in the US due to lower efficacy than injectables. Affordability and accessibility of the drug should improve w/ better insurance coverage (including via Medicare and Medicaid) and lower cash pay costs. Currently, ~50% of GLP-1 users stop taking the drug after 1 yr given the high costs, however as it becomes more affordable, the length of use should extend longer. Key implications for the restaurants sector include: 1) reduced dining out frequency, with the impact likely increasing over time as drug adoption grows, 2) alcohol mix continues to decline for full-service restaurants, 3) a shift in consumer preference towards healthier food options and smaller portion, and 4) lower overall calorie intake even from GLP-1 users with the same restaurant visit frequency. Replay details and slides available upon request.

OpenTable Reservations Data by State

Food Away From Home inflation > Food At Home inflation

With the national average gasoline price exceeding the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for 10 weeks, consumers, mainly working-class ones, are in a real financial pinch as the tax-refund sugar is waning (read note). 

Professional subscribers can read more about the consumer at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 19:15

Waste Of The Day: Disaster In Small NM Village

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearWire,

Topline: The Village of Cuba, New Mexico, has had "a sustained and indefensible breakdown in accountability over public funds" since at least 2020, according to a state audit released in May. The report identified dozens of issues, including a public official with $11,471 in unpaid water bills and another who used public funds to buy a Subaru Crosstrek without approval.

Key facts: Auditors found the village never implemented proper processes to monitor its payroll, bank accounts, credit cards, or employee sick leave. There were not enough staff to perform "basic governmental and administrative functions," so the village outsourced almost all financial oversight to private contractors whose work was rarely, if ever, monitored. Some of the village's few finance employees resigned during the audit.

The village's water utility operated at a $3 million deficit over five years. Customers' bills were not based on actual water meter readings. The village instead estimated what each bill should be, with no apparent consistent methodology, the audit found.

All of the village's state and federal grant bank accounts were managed by one employee who often did not share records with anyone else, according to the audit. Nobody kept track of how large portions of the grant funds were spent to ensure they aligned with federal guidelines.

One village employee was enrolled in health insurance but never had their premiums deducted from their paychecks. Two other employees did have premiums deducted but were not enrolled in health insurance. Another was still on the village's health insurance over a year after they retired, auditors found.

A management employee paid themselves $21,464 for unused vacation and sick time, which was more than they had actually earned. The audit does not specify how much the employee was actually entitled to. The former mayor also received a $12,957 payout for unused time off, "contrary to city policy."

Multiple employees remained on the payroll without interruption after failing a drug test, the report found.

After completing the report, State Auditor Joseph Maestas told KOAT 7 News, "I've never seen anything like it."

The Village of Cuba has 640 residents and a $15 million budget this year. It had to modify its budget four times in 2025 because spending was outpacing revenue.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world's largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.

Summary: Federal scandals often dominate the political headlines, but Cuba, New Mexico is a reminder that the most egregious mismanagement can often occur locally.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 18:40

Steven Spielberg Believes That Disclosure Day Will Greatly Shake The Faith Of Christians All Over The Globe

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Would undeniable evidence of alien life cause large numbers of people to abandon what they believe about God? Disclosure Day comes out in theaters this weekend, and that appears to be one of the biggest questions that this film is driving at. Much of the global population has always operated under the assumption that the only intelligent life that exists in the universe is on this planet. So how would the world respond to very clear evidence that proves once and for all that we are not alone?

Steven Spielberg is the creative force behind Disclosure Day, and he is making it abundantly clear what he believes.

During a shocking interview with CBS News, he openly stated that he believes that aliens “have been here, and they are here”…

Half a century after Steven Spielberg challenged audiences to think about what lies beyond the starry canopy that defines our universe in Close Encounters of the Third Kind, the director is again challenging accepted precepts of faith and singular belief in a supreme being.

His new film Disclosure Day sees him revisit the possibility of aliens: “I absolutely think that they have been here, and they are here,” he outlined in an interview with CBS News.

Wow.

Spielberg is actually convinced that aliens are here on Earth right now.

And during a different interview with USA Today, he expressed his view that there is “overwhelming” evidence that aliens exist…

When I made “Close Encounters,” I needed a lot of imagination. I believed there was other life out there, although I wasn’t quite sure if it had come here. I was really curious about UFOs and UAPs. I said, “I’m not going to call ‘Close Encounters’ science fiction – I’m going to call it science speculation.” But since the beginning of the 21st century, there’s been more and more access to the actual visual truth. We’re able to confirm our belief by showing what we shot on our devices to other people. It’s just become overwhelming to me that we’re not alone in the universe.

Disclosure Day makes it clear that Spielberg does not consider the fact that we are not alone to be a bad thing.

In fact, it appears that he is trying to get those that watch the movie to be open to whatever the “aliens” may want to teach us.

In my opinion, that is what makes this film so dangerous.

The idea is that once the “aliens” show up we should discard what we have always believed and just accept whatever new reality they have to offer.

Of course Spielberg also acknowledges that this would be very difficult for many of us.

Spielberg is convinced that if the government fully revealed everything about alien life that they have been keeping from us, it would “mess up a lot of people”…

“There’s a faction in the film that represents a pretty good position of why — possibly because of ontological shock, social dislocation — if this truth… were just known overnight, if the government announced, ‘Yes, we have been keeping this from you since 1947,’ that would mess up a lot of people.”

So exactly who are the “people” that Spielberg is referring to?

At one point in his interview with CBS News, Spielberg suggested that undeniable evidence of alien life would greatly shake the theological beliefs of those that believe in God…

During a CBS News interview, Spielberg reflected on how confirmation of intelligent life beyond Earth could affect religious faith, saying, ‘The movie also takes the position of the church.

‘What does this do to the fundamental beliefs that many of us have? Is God our God only on this planet? Or is God a god for every system where there’s civilization and intelligent life, and even developing life?’

The Oscar-winning filmmaker argued that proof of alien life would force many believers to confront difficult questions about God’s role in a universe that may be filled with other intelligent civilizations.

Obviously this is something that has been on his mind for a long time.

If you have not seen Spielberg’s full interview with CBS News yet, I would highly recommend checking it out, because it is very revealing…

Because it has so much hype, I think that Disclosure Day will be one of the biggest movies of the year.

Over time, billions of people could end up watching this film.

Just think about that for a moment.

All over the world, people will have their opinions about extraterrestrial life shaped by Spielberg, and that is extremely alarming.

One character in Disclosure Day actually suggests that when the “aliens” finally show up, people will “stop believing in God” and will instead accept the “aliens” as “deities”…

Would the discovery of alien life really be faith-shattering? One character in Disclosure Day (a former novitiate nun played by Bono’s daughter Eve Hewson) argues, “People will see [aliens] as deities. They’ll stop believing in God.”

For decades, movies, television shows, books and video games have been priming us to believe that someday the “aliens” will finally make their grand appearance.

And when that happens, much of the global population will accept whatever they have to say hook, line and sinker.

But true Christians will not have their faith shaken by Disclosure Day, nor will they have their faith shaken even if “aliens” suddenly show up in large numbers in the skies above this planet.

From the very beginning to the very end, the Bible openly acknowledges that we are not alone in the universe.

In fact, the Bible has a great deal to say about angels, fallen angels, demons and a whole host of other non-human entities.

And the final book of the Bible is far wilder than any science fiction movie that Hollywood has ever put out.

Yes, very strange creatures will someday invade our planet. You can read all about it in Revelation chapter 9.

I have been writing about all of this stuff for well over a decade, because I want the world to understand what is going to happen in advance.

Once you understand what is going to happen, your faith will never be shaken by a Steven Spielberg film.

On social media, some Christians are making this point quite eloquently…

One user posted on X in response to the director’s statements, saying: ‘I can promise you it won’t. Not even for a second.’ While another shared: ‘The Alien Psyop will definitely make people question their faith lol.’

An X user posted: ‘We’ve had 70 years of sci-fi movies with aliens. I think Christians will survive this movie with their faith intact.’

Steven Spielberg seems to think that the fact that we are not alone is some sort of grand discovery.

But the reality of the matter is that the Bible has been telling us this for thousands of years.

We were never alone.

So don’t buy into the Hollywood propaganda.

We are being set up for a deception of epic proportions, but those that hold on to the truth will be able to see right through it.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 16:20

"Greatest Show On Earth": White House Hosts UFC Freedom 250 Fights

America’s semiquincentennial birthday celebration kicks into gear today with the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s (UFC) Freedom 250 fights, with seven matches scheduled for the South Lawn of the White House.

“This will be the greatest show on earth,” President Donald Trump said while previewing the stage in May.

“I think it’s going to be the biggest event we’ve ever had at the White House.”

As Travis Gillmore reports for The Epoch Times, the spectacle falls on Flag Day as well as Trump’s 80th birthday.

Organizers constructed a 60-foot-tall structure known as the “claw,” with matches occurring in the sport’s familiar, octagon-shaped arena on the front yard of the Executive Mansion.

The main event, a lightweight title unification bout, features undefeated UFC lightweight title holder Ilia “El Matador” Topuria, 29, facing off against 37-year-old interim lightweight champion Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje, both weighing in at 155 pounds. Topuria, known for elite techniques and knockout strength, is heavily favored, though the U.S.-born Gaethje is a mainstay in the sport, with high-level fighting intelligence and durability.

Second on the card, listed as a co-main event, is an interim heavyweight bout between 251-pound Alex Pereira, 38, and 248-pound Ciryl Gane, 36.

Known as “Poatan,” Pereira is looking to become the sport’s first three-division champion, having previously captured the middleweight and light heavyweight titles.

Media preview of the UFC setup of the upcoming UFC Freedom Fight on June 14, on the South Lawn of the White House on June 11, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

France’s Gane, nicknamed “Bon Gamin,” a former interim champion, is quick on his feet and known for his range. The match is evenly stacked, according to oddsmakers.

Winners of the title bouts will receive red, white, and blue patriotic-themed belts, adorned with “1776–2026,” 250 stars, approximately 60 carats of diamonds, and an engraving of the scene at the White House.

Fan favorite “Suga” Sean O’Malley is expected to bring his trademark personality to the ring when he takes on Aiemann Zahabi for the bantamweight match, with both fighters coming within a half-pound of each other at weigh-in. O’Malley’s quick striking gives him the edge, while Zahabi comes into the match with a seven-fight win streak.

An undefeated new prospect weighing 231 pounds, Josh Hokit, with nine straight victories, will challenge 265-pound Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis in the night’s heavyweight fight. Hokit brings youthful energy to the ring, while Lewis is known as an elite, lights-out puncher.

Brazilian lightweight Mauricio Ruffy takes on veteran Michael Chandler in a bout where Ruffy is favored, but Chandler’s wrestling skills and bursts of energy will be on display.

Bo Nickal is expected to prevail over Kyle Daukaus in a middleweight battle between the two 186-pounders, while a featherweight match between Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia is set to open the night.

UFC organizers hosted a ceremonial weigh-in Saturday in Washington in preparation for the mixed martial arts fights.

Dana White, UFC president and CEO, oversaw the programming, while podcaster and long-time UFC commentator Joe Rogan emceed the event.

White hoisted one of the red, white, and blue patriotic themed belts created for the two title fights, adorned with “1776–2026,” 250 stars, approximately 60 carats of diamonds, and an engraving of the scene at the White House.

Thousands of fans crowded the Ellipse near the Executive Mansion to witness the festivities.

Military skydivers performed aerial stunts to kick iff the evening, flying a huge American flag down to the crowd before a bald eagle soared over the audience.

The 14 fighters were officially weighed in earlier in the morning, and all the competitors made their respective weight to qualify for the seven-match card.

UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria and interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje both came in at 155 pounds ahead of their fight in the main event on Sunday, a lightweight title unification match.

The co-main event, an interim heavyweight title bout, will feature 251-pound Alex Pereira against 248-pound Ciryl Gane.

Sean O’Malley weighed in at 135.5 pounds, and Aiemann Zahabi came in at 135 pounds ahead of their bantamweight match.

Heavyweights Josh Hokit and Derrick Lewis will fight at 231 pounds and 265 pounds, respectively.

Mauricio Ruffy weighed 155 pounds, and Michael Chandler totaled 156 pounds, before the two go head-to-head in a lightweight match.

Middleweights Bo Nickal and Kyle Daukaus will fight at 186 pounds apiece, while featherweights Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia both weighed in at 146 pounds.

Tensions ran high as the athletes faced off in front of the crowd.

Similar antics were on display June 12 during the pre-fight press conference at the Lincoln Memorial.

Thousands of military members and special guests will sit ringside, while the Ellipse near the White House is set up to hold an overflow crowd of approximately 100,000.

Gates open at 3:30 p.m. ET Sunday for the main event and Fan Fest watch party, which includes a replica octagon, interactive entertainment, live music, merchandise booths, live shows and appearances, meet-and-greets with UFC athletes, fireworks, and more.

The Zac Brown Band headlined Saturday night, with more musical acts featured along with motocross stunts by Travis Pastrana.

Officials with the UFC promoted the fights as the “most historic sporting event of all time,” with festivities coinciding with the nation’s founders signing the Declaration of Independence.

“UFC Freedom 250 commemorates the 250th birthday of the United States with a once-in-a-generation celebration of the American fighting spirit,” the organization said in a statement.

“From the revolution to the octagon, this historic event will connect fans through cinematic storytelling and unrivaled competition on the world’s greatest proving ground.”

People around the world can watch the fights live on Paramount+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 15:45

Ethereum Can Quantum-Proof Accounts For Just 7 Cents, Says Foundation's Kohaku Project Lead

Authored by Zoltan Verdai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum could begin adding post-quantum protections to accounts for as little as $0.07, without waiting for a hard fork, according to the Ethereum Foundation's Kohaku project lead Nicolas Consigny.

In a Saturday X post, Consigny shared a paper proposing a cheaper way for Ethereum users to protect their accounts against future quantum-computing threats. The approach adapts SPHINCS+, a post-quantum signature standard developed by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology, to work more efficiently on Ethereum.

Dubbed “SPHINCS-,” the proposal aims to reduce onchain verification costs without requiring a protocol change or precompile. Consigny described SPHINCS- as a bridge toward a future post-quantum signature system dubbed “leanSPHINCS,” which aims to further reduce verification costs through aggregation.

The proposal seeks to address the long-term risk of a quantum threat to Ethereum's Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm with a cost-efficient solution that may be deployed before a dedicated hard fork is developed.

Signature scheme SPHINCs variant security degradation and onchain verification costs. Source: Ethresearch.ch

Future quantum computing threats stirs crypto community

In April, post-quantum startup Project Eleven awarded a prize to researcher Giancarlo Lelli for using a quantum computer to break a 15-bit elliptic-curve key.

Bitcoin’s keys are 256 bits long, significantly larger than the 15-bit key Lelli managed to crack. He derived the private key from a public key paired to it, using a variant of Shor’s algorithm, a quantum computing technique that theoretically poses a threat to the type of cryptography used by Bitcoin.

According to Glassnode, about 1.92 million Bitcoin, representing nearly 10% of the total supply, are considered “structurally unsafe” in a future quantum attack scenario. Another 4.12 million BTC, or 20.6% of the supply, are classified as “operationally unsafe” due to key or address management practices.

Source: Glassnode

The analytics company estimates that the remaining 69.8% of the supply, or 13.99 million Bitcoin, remains unexposed to a quantum computing threat, broadly in line with Ark Invest’s March estimate that 65% of the supply was safe. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 15:10

Space: The Now Frontier And The AI Revolution

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Space: The Now Frontier & The AI Revolution

Academy will tackle any details on a deal with Iran via a SITREP and a podcast, once (if) details are made  available. 

After last Friday’s extreme move (More Than Rates Moving Markets) we had a relatively tame week with the S&P and Nasdaq both gaining around 0.7%, but neither getting back to their highs of the week, set on Tuesday. Yields drifted moderately lower on the week, primarily on the back of steep declines in the price of oil (though I do feel the need to point out the Jan 2027 WTI contract, which I’ve been focusing on, is still at $76.1, barely one dollar lower than where it closed last Friday – I remain in the higher for longer camp). Credit spreads remain firm and the asset class remains “boring” which is a good thing! 

Now let’s address two bigger picture issues that have been taking up a lot of time during recent client calls and visits. Space and AI. 

Space: The Now Frontier 

Space: The Final Frontier still gives me the chills! The excitement of exploration! The IPO of SpaceX and all the discussion it has created has brought back that feeling. 

A colony of 1 million people on Mars! I love the concept! I have 0 opinion on whether the number of shares that Musk gets for achieving that target is the right number, but I love having that concept out there. 

Think big:! This concept floating around, and now documented into Wall Street, excites me. On the back of Artemis II and the planned lunar landings, there is a lot of potential for new discoveries. 

On a more practical (or near-term outlook) it can lead to AI and Data Centers in space. New sources of energy and potentially other materials. 

But there are also important National Security elements that are gaining more attention. 

Many members of Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group lament that we have been “soft” on space. That we have ignored the real dangers to national security by not focusing on space as much as we need to. While the Space Force was a step in the right direction, many argue that we are behind (some might argue woefully behind) where we should be in terms of ensuring that space is safe and our interests are protected! 

At the simple and on the not controversial end of the spectrum, is “space junk.” The debris in orbit is increasing. While not currently posing a risk, it is something that should be addressed better than it has been. 

What about GPS and communications? I’m not sure that I could walk to the corner store without using some map app. The working assumption that “no one is interested in disrupting GPS” may be naïve? While at least 95% of communication remains “terrestrial” (fiber optic cables, undersea cables, cell towers, etc.) space will become increasingly important to communications. While it might not be “mission critical” to protect the communications equipment in space today, it could be.

Who will control discoveries? 

Let’s say we find some vital resources on the moon (seems the most likely “surprise” that could occur in the near future). Who will control that material? 

• At best, the discoverer and those with the capabilities to take advantage of such material.  
• At worst, might is right. 

We expect this administration, and future administrations, will spend more on space to support National Security. This is a bipartisan issue as we think about the myriad of possibilities for space. Not just the good and altruistic possibilities, but also about the risk that some other country doesn’t share such a cooperative spirit about the future of space. 

This is by no means, “closing the barn door after the horses have run out,” but it is something that deserves more serious attention and money going forward.  

The national security elements are in addition to the commercial opportunities that will be funded as corporations rush to harness the potential! 

If waking up to a $2.1 trillion market cap (and the first trillionaire) doesn’t motivate entrepreneurial and capitalistic spirits, then I should just give up this job, because it would go against everything I understand about capitalism! 

Space may be the “final frontier” but it is also the “now” frontier, which is incredibly exciting! 

The AI Revolution 

Let’s get the hard part over, and start with this image: 

This image is meant to grab your attention, if not create some shock value. Yes, I used AI (ChatGPT in this case) to create an image of modern-day workers storming a data center like villagers in the old days. It isn’t perfect, but it is about a zillion times better than I could do on my own. 

My current thinking on AI: 

• It is crucial to have the lead in this technology from a National Security standpoint.
  • Maybe I’m falling into a trap where everything looks like a nail, when you only have a hammer, as I spend so much time with the Geopolitical Intelligence Group, but I do believe that the AI Race and the Data Race are real and it is crucial to stay ahead in these races. I cannot tell whether it is one race or two races that are similar, but that doesn’t really make a difference, so we will ignore that technicality for now. 
• We are all trying to implement AI into our routines, with varying amounts of success. 
  • “Traditional” search (if you can call something that didn’t exist when I was born, “traditional”) has been almost fully taken over by AI. No longer are we just getting pointed to links and websites as search results. We now get the answers we presumably would have gotten by going to those links up front. 
  • Sometimes we are “shocked” by the results of AI. 
    • Sometimes those “shocks” are good – like the image delivered above. 
    • Sometimes those “shocks” raise eyebrows – like how could it make up a ticker?  Or not find the current version of what we were trying to solve. Ending up in a level of frustration over the need to correct some “slop” after spending money to generate that “slop” in the first place. At the back of your mind, you cannot help but wonder what you might have missed, in prior instances of using AI.
  • I think a lot about the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect (the ad that popped up for me on this link was for ShipSticks - got to give the ad agencies some credit for that). 
• We have moved beyond “generic” questions about AI and into wanting real world examples and case studies. 
  • We are in the phase of trying to figure out “if it is worth it.” Not just figuring out how much time we saved (after applying our own touches) but we are also considering what we didn’t learn by going down the AI path. 
  • With the prices rising for usage, it is becoming easier to think about AI in a “traditional” cost versus benefit framework. Presumably (based on market valuations), AI is going to look very cheap. 

If my current thinking is generally positive on AI and I truly believe it is crucial for security, then why show a picture depicting the AI Revolution as people storming a data center? 

• Anthropic Disables Mythos 5 and Fable 5. This was done to comply with the U.S. government’s demands. National Security front and center. I will admit, there is a part of me that thinks this might be the best “velvet rope” marketing campaign ever. It is so powerful that you can’t use it, just makes people want to use it. But it is only a part of me that thinks that. The larger and less juvenile side of me thinks there are real security risks being unleashed.
  • It is difficult to undo discoveries. Now that everyone knows that this sort of AI has been developed, people will try to replicate it. How long before someone else has this tech and uses it against us (or you or me). We are going to have to ramp up our National Security Policy around data, chips, and AI at lightning speed! 
  • There will be (and there already is) an element of I Told You So. Those who don’t want AI to succeed will use this to try to slow the development of AI. Again, just because we slow down and add stricter guardrails doesn’t mean those who want to do us harm would follow suit (they wouldn’t, they would just smile at the opportunity being given to them). 
• Remember the “viral” report on potential job losses from AI? Wall Street may have moved on, but not everyone in the country has forgotten about the fear it stoked in them (primarily around their own jobs and careers). While our Are We The Horses? in the buggy whip story hasn’t gone viral, it has gotten some attention. Lisa Abramowicz asked me about it during my interview last week and has mentioned it several times. I recently came across another report also asking those questions. Fear of job loss is real. 
  • Add in robotics, and job loss fears mount even higher.
• Electricity costs. People don’t love the looks of data centers (one friend pointed out recently, that while driving at 79 mph, it took 3 minutes to drive by a data center construction site). Water issues are there too, but for now it is the electricity consumption that bothers/scares people the most.

Electricity CPI: new record high pic.twitter.com/EBFCAxDXk4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 10, 2026

The biggest risk I see to the AI industry in the U.S. is that a political movement captures the angst surrounding the business and uses that sentiment to win elections and slow or even derail AI in the country. 

We are not there yet, but the industry has to focus on heading this risk off at the pass. 

• We’ve seen a “softer” tone out of some AI executives, particularly trying to flip the narrative to job creation from AI rather than job losses. 
• The companies developing the AI and Data Centers are doing a much better job on the electricity side of things and will continue to do that. 
• While it is probably important to lobby in D.C., I think it is equally important (and possibly more important) to maintain/win in the court of public opinion. 

My picture is unlikely to gain traction (no one uses torches anyways), but that sentiment is bubbling just below the surface and I think tackling it head on is one thing that AI needs to do. The national security focus helps, but is not in itself enough. 

Bottom Line 

I think I need to watch some Star Trek episodes on upcoming flights.I am very excited about space and think that sentiment is widely held. I am largely excited about AI but think there is a real risk of political backlash if the industry lets fears seep into the populace at large and some politicians harness that fear. 

Hopefully, we have details on Iran and they are good and we can move on from that topic.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 14:00

UK Intercepts 'Russian Shadow' Fleet Vessel in Unprecedented English Channel Commando Boarding

British Royal Marine Commandos conducted a high-stakes midnight raid in the English Channel on Sunday, boarding and seizing a sanctioned Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker.

The elite UK forces conducted a fast-roping raid onto the massive crude carrier in the dead of night and into the morning daylight hours. While there's nothing new in terms of an 'illicit' Russian tanker seizure in European waters, it is rare or even unprecedented that such an action occurred in the English Channel, so close to Britain's shores.

UK military image: the Smyrtos boarding

According to the UK Ministry of Defense, it was a  six-hour operation and a massive display of force involving a flotilla of navy vessels - including the frigate HMS Sutherland - and a fleet of aircraft, most notably heavy-lift Chinook helicopters.

The target has since been identified as the Smyros - a vessel allegedly flying under the radar in an effort to bypass Western embargoes.

According to the MoD statement, it was indeed a significant first:

"In the first U.K.-led operation of its kind, the vessel SMYRTOS was boarded by Royal Marine Commandos and specially trained law enforcement officers from the National Crime Agency, despite Russia's best efforts to evade sanctions and continue fueling its barbaric war with Ukraine."

France has been involved in several of these interdictions and boardings, but not yet the UK, until now. The captured vessel now being escorted to an anchorage off the south coast of England, where it will remain under heavy guard and surveillance.

The UK defense ministry in follow-up sated that "Russia relies on its shadow fleet to fund their conflict in Ukraine and our interdiction delivers a blow to Putin's illegal war." The statement added that this was done in "close coordination" with French authorities.

Russian "shadow fleet" methods have relied on constantly switching registries and disabling AIS transponders to avoid tracking.

The last several seized tankers - done by France which is up to four captures at this point - were flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year. 

Watch: Royal Marine Commandos board the sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tanker SMYRTOS in the Channel, in the first UK-led operation of its kind, backed by HMS Sutherland, HMS Ledbury and an RAF P-8. The vessel is now held off the south coast as investigations continue. pic.twitter.com/omTnGlh3gk

— UK Defence Journal (@UKDefJournal) June 14, 2026

In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts - which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action. But unprotected ones are clearly exposed, and European militaries can taken action on these at will.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 13:25

Gonorrhea Rates Are Soaring In NYC: Mamdani Rushes Free Chocolate Condoms To Citizens Of Big Apple!

Authored by Eric Utter via American Thinker,

So what's the priority of New York City's Mamdani administration these days?

FrontPage Magazine reported:

Gonorrhea rates in New York City have more than doubled in a decade and syphilis is ‘surging’ statewide. Mamdani’s Department of Health has responded to this crisis by rushing a free supply of lubricant and chocolate flavored condoms.

Beam me up, Scotty.

FPM quoted NYC Deputy Mayor for Health and Human Services Helen Arteaga as stating,

“Providing high-quality sexual and reproductive healthcare services is a priority for the Mamdani Administration. Making safer sex products more accessible to the most affected and vulnerable communities is a critical public health need.”

Well, it’s good to have priorities. But are chocolate-flavored condoms safer than regular old garden-variety ones? I’m guessing not, but I couldn’t tell you from experience.

FPM again:

Councilwoman Pierina Sanchez, a Mamdani ally, explained that the free chocolate flavored condoms were necessary because "inequities persist among women, low-income households, and Black and Latino New Yorkers.

Women, low-income households, and black and Latino New Yorkers are adversely and disproportionately affected by a relative dearth of chocolate-flavored condoms? Is New York a den of iniquity inequity?

Unfortunately for virtue-signaling do-gooders, the free chocolaty condoms are coming from Karex, a Malaysian company that is apparently the largest manufacturer of condoms on Earth.

Why is this unfortunate?

According to The Telegraph, some Karex workers said they are put up in cramped and undignified conditions, with as many as a dozen housed in damp and unhygienic dormitories.

Workers at one site are allegedly granted just half of a steel bunkbed, with no mattress — and only have access to a filthy, broken toilet. And for these “amenities,” about 12 dollars a month is deducted from their wages. The Telegraph reported that one Karex employee said “sometimes poisonous snakes come in” to the dorms.

Not sure if that’s a blessing or a curse.

“Forget the crime! Forget the fact that the city is broke! Chocolate condoms for everybody!” does not seem like a winning slogan for Mamdani … but what do I know?

Ask not what you can do for the city, ask what Mayor Mamdani can do to — I mean for -- you!”

I’m sure someone in the Mamdani administration will tout the mayor’s actions thusly: “These delectable prophylactics will be generously distributed, free of cost, to all genders with a penis … and to all those that love them! Mayor Mamdani is hard at work to make your lives better!”

Considering the shape the city is in, this may be the biggest cover up in the history of the Big Apple.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 12:50

 

Fun conversation with the “My First Million” guys!

 

Show Notes:

(0:00) Intro
(2:19) Christmas tree portfolio
(4:43) Cowboy account
(9:51) Day trading
(11:09) Barry yells at Lloyd Blankfein
(13:46) Panic selling
(16:45) Sam picks a fight
(18:46) Direct indexing
(21:43) Great investors
(27:25) 90% of everything is crap
(36:14) Elon’s foray into PE
(44:02) Predicting the housing crisis
(46:01) Spending a year as the dumbest guy on Wall Street
(49:01)Why bubbles are good for the economy

The post 15 Minutes to Being A Better Investor appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Says New Israeli Attack On Beirut "Should Not Have Happened" - Also Warns Hezbollah "Let's Not Blow It"

Update(1140ET): President Trump on Truth Social has sought to brush back the Israeli Sunday strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, saying this morning's attack "should not have happened" and given it was on "a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.

He emphasized, "We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down." 

Some apparent last minute further Trump-Bibi fireworks, reported by Fox's regional correspondent...

President Trump told Fox News he will ask Iran not to respond against Israeli strikes that targeted Hezbollah.

Trump says he asked Israeli PM Netanyahu "what the fu*k are you doing?"

The President believes a deal with Iran will be electronically signed in the next 2-3 hours. pic.twitter.com/t689DQWfOE

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 14, 2026

He warned not just Israel against more attacks, but said Hezbollah must refrain, after the Iran-aligned Shia group sent more projectiles on northern Israel. "This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace" he said, and added "let's not blow it."

*  *  *

On Sunday the spokesman for the Iranian parliament's National Security Commission again warned against pursuing a deal with the United States without first restraining Israel. Iran has tried to force a 'red line' on Washington - essentially making clear that if it doesn't get Israel under control in Lebanon, it can kiss an Iran and Hormuz Strait reopening peace deal goodbye. 

"One must not fall into a calculation error. Even if you seek agreement or understanding, its path is disciplining the Zionist regime. If this rabid dog is not controlled the ink of an agreement not yet dry will bite our own foot," the influential Ebrahim Rezaei wrote on X.

The site of an Israeli air strike in Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday, via AFP.

The warning came immediately on the heels of the Israeli military having hit Beirut hard on Sunday morning, with airstrikes on what the IDF called Hezbollah infrastructure, in response to recent attacks on northern Israel. 

Iranian officials have in turn repeated their threat that they could respond with military action.

Just as President Trump has been touting that a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) will be signed Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has thrown a possible big monkey wrench into things by stating that "Israel will not tolerate firing into its territory."

From Tehran's perspective, this could put a deal with Trump on hold, as it seeks to maintain its firm line that Lebanon peace must also be incorporated into a broader overall US-Iran peace.

This has proven elusive thus far, and the Iranians have long charged that Trump acts at the behest of Israeli interests - while the White House has in turn sought to make clear it makes decisions independently, and that Israel answers to Washington, and not the other way around.

Iran's response to the new Beirut bombings has been as expected, with the deputy commander of Iran's top joint military command Khatam al-Anbiya Central ‌Headquarters stating that Israel's assault on Beirut "will not go unanswered," according to state media

"The Zionists' crimes in the suburbs will not go unanswered," Mohammad Jafar Assadi was quoted as saying. And more importantly: 

Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said that Israel's assault on Beirut's southern suburbs showed that the US "either lacks the will to fulfill its commitments or the ability to do so".

"If you lack the will and ability to fulfill your commitments, speaking of continuing the path is not possible," he added. 

Lebanon's civil defense agency has indicated that the new attacks on Beirut's southern suburbs killed at least three people. "The bodies of three martyrs were recovered from under the rubble and six wounded," the agency announced in a statement.

❗️BREAKING: Israel carried out attacks on Beirut’s suburbs pic.twitter.com/M8pkglo0qZ

— Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) June 14, 2026

Again, Israel is saying this was necessary out of self-defense. The IDF "just carried out strikes in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut against terrorist targets belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organisation, in response to Hezbollah's firing toward Israeli territory," it said. But certainly Tehran will voice vehement disagreement with this version of events.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 11:40

America's Energy Future Is Being Decided In Obscure Utility Commission Races

Authored by Elizabeth Gianini via RealClearEnergy,

Most Americans could not name a single member of their state Public Service or Utility Commission (PSC/PUC).

Radical climate activists are counting on that.

Across the country, radical climate activists and left-wing environmental organizations are pouring millions of dollars into obscure utility commission races because they understand something many voters do not: these commissions increasingly influence the future of America's electric grid.

These regulatory bodies decide how electricity is generated, how transmission infrastructure is built, how quickly power plants retire, how new resources are integrated into the grid, and ultimately how much Americans pay for electricity and whether the lights stay on when the system is under stress.

In Georgia, radical climate activists invested heavily in the 2025 PSC races, helping defeat Republican commissioners who supported an all-of-the-above energy strategy. In Arizona, activist-backed candidates won utility elections while advocating accelerated retirements of dispatchable generation. Similar efforts are already emerging in other states.

These organizations understand that utility commissioners play a critical role in shaping energy infrastructure, reliability, and investment decisions within the legal and regulatory frameworks established by their states. As national energy debates have become increasingly difficult to win in Washington, radical left-wing environmental activists have turned their attention to state-level regulatory races where those decisions are often debated and implemented.

What makes this debate so misleading is that activists frame it as a choice between renewable energy and the dispatchable generation still required to keep the grid reliable, affordable, and resilient.

It is not.

Most Republican PSC and PUC commissioners support an all-of-the-above energy strategy. They recognize that meeting America's growing energy needs while maintaining reliability and resilience will require contributions from virtually every available energy source.

What they reject is the fantasy that America can rapidly phase out dispatchable generation before replacement technologies are capable of providing the same level of reliability, resilience, and affordability.

Many radical climate activists have shifted their messaging from climate targets to affordability. Affordable electricity means very little if policymakers sacrifice reliability in pursuit of political timelines.

No major industrial economy has demonstrated that a heavily renewable-dependent electric system can operate at scale with consistent reliability and affordable consumer costs without substantial dispatchable backup generation.

At the same time, electricity demand is surging. Artificial intelligence, data centers, domestic manufacturing, and electrification are creating the largest increase in power demand America has seen in decades.

The Trump Administration's Ratepayer Protection Pledge reflects a simple principle: large AI and data-center customers should bear their fair share of the generation, transmission, and infrastructure costs associated with their growth rather than shifting those costs onto families, small businesses, and existing ratepayers.

America's electric grid was already facing enormous modernization requirements. Transmission systems are aging. Generation fleets are evolving.

AI is accelerating the urgency of these investments. It did not create the underlying challenge.

Utilities are expected to spend approximately $1.4 trillion over the next five years modernizing the electric grid, replacing aging infrastructure, hardening systems against extreme weather, and expanding capacity.

Recent Department of Energy actions to preserve dispatchable generation reflect a growing recognition that reliability and resilience must remain central considerations in America's energy transition. The challenge is not simply building new resources. It is ensuring the electric system remains dependable during periods of peak demand, extreme weather, and other conditions that place stress on the grid.

The real challenge is not choosing between renewable and traditional energy. It is building a reliable, affordable, resilient, and scalable system capable of supporting long-term economic growth while withstanding major disruptions and restoring service quickly when Americans need power most.

Pretending otherwise may satisfy radical climate activists.

It will not keep electricity affordable.

It will not keep the lights on during hurricanes, polar freezes, or extreme heat events when millions of Americans depend on electricity not simply for convenience, but for safety and survival.

Recent victories in Georgia and Arizona have emboldened radical climate activists and their allies, who increasingly view state utility and regulatory commission races as some of the most important battlegrounds in American energy policy.

Republicans, business leaders, and ratepayers should start paying attention. The decisions made by these commissions will shape the affordability, reliability, resilience, and economic competitiveness of the American economy for decades to come.

Elizabeth Gianini is President of the Regulators RoundTable PAC.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 11:40

The post BYD To Award Trump Salesman of the Year for Promoting its EVs appeared first on CEPR.

Talking Across The Divide

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

How we see politics reveals a lot about who we are. But it is less akin to a Rorschach ink blot than one of those reversible images, like the drawing that is both a rabbit and a duck. As messy as society might be, it is not some blob open to any interpretation (at least not yet, anyway). The patterns are there. But where we see one clear thing clearly, our pal may see another just as sharply.

The difference is that we can ultimately resolve the artistic conflict - yes, I see both my wife and my mother-in-law in the drawing; when it comes to politics, we tend to dig in our heels and insist on our single reading.

I felt as if I was peering at a reversible image the other day while talking with a progressive friend about the major challenges confronting the U.S. Surveying the American landscape, he saw a nation in peril largely because of a handful of billionaire "oligarchs" who use their tremendous influence to shape policy while resisting efforts to pay their "fair share." Imposing wealth taxes and closing loopholes, he said, is both a moral and economic necessity to start improving the picture.

I countered that I didn't see the problem as a handful of rich guys but the many millions of Americans who lack the education, skills, and burning desire to better their own lives. The problem is not, for example, a lack of funding, but a broken education system; it is not a porous safety net, but the unwillingness of people to work.

As these discussions go, my friend was not armed with studies and statistics to support his point - he's kept busy by his demanding job and the family he loves. Honestly, this can get frustrating for those of us who are paid to know and remember such material. It's taken me too long to realize that commanding more evidence doesn't necessarily make me right. Other people's summary knowledge of all they've seen and read may lack specifics, but it doesn't make them wrong.

He made some excellent points. The rise of technology has allowed a coterie of true visionaries - including Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and the late Steve Jobs - and the hedge fund guys who've piggy-backed on their talents to become unimaginably rich. They didn't invent the future, but were smart, and lucky enough to see where things were headed and did a better job than other smart and tenacious people to drive and capitalize on change. No matter their talents, many of them could only have grown so rich in America, which is home to about a third of the world's billionaires.

As almost every American agrees on the need for a tax system, he noted, the question is not whether they should pay a portion of their earnings to the government, but how much. He could not pinpoint exactly what a fair share would be. He said that the question is beside the point - fair is not a firm rate but an ever-changing number based on what people have and what the government needs. He did say that I wasn't crazy to think progressives reject any set limit as a ceiling that would limit their demand for more.

He was roughly aware that top earners pay a large share of federal taxes. I told him that the most recent IRS data indicates the top 1% paid about 38.4% of all federal individual income; include the top 10% and the figure rises above 70%. That's a lot of their money going to us.

But he noted that their effective tax rate - for the top 1% it was 26.1% in 2022 - is not onerous. And the billionaires, in particular, use a passel of legal deductions and carve-outs to reduce their tax bills.

"I know their money creates jobs and investments in the private sector," he said, "but we have a massive debt [now north of $39 trillion] and huge annual deficits that have to be paid by someone. They can best afford it." He added, "Maybe we should, like Europe, raise everyone's taxes a lot, but that is not politically viable right now. Since we need money, the rich and very rich are the best place to start."

We both agreed that people should pay for the government they want and that tax rates should not be set because of some abstract notion of fairness, but at levels that will maximize revenue.

Nevertheless, I countered that the American landscape can be viewed another way. First, I said the focus on the rich seeks to create a single bogeyman to blame for all our problems. The implication that simply taking more from Bezos and Musk is the cure for what ails us is not true - rich as they are, their fortunes are small compared to government spending. More importantly, the focus shifts the responsibility from individuals who are the captains of their own ships and leaders who have failed to govern wisely to a relatively small number of largely blameless individuals.

To take a few examples, I asserted that the superrich are not to blame for the chronic rate of absenteeism at our public schools; the record numbers of young men who are not part of the workforce; the declining rates of marriage and births. The superrich are not the reason why some of the most heavily regulated industries, including health care, education, and housing, have seen some of the highest rises in costs. Our aching moral challenge is not centered in the tax code - which falsely suggests our problems could be easily solved - but in the decisions we the people are making in our own lives.

Finally, I said, the government has plenty of money. If the federal government were a private business, its increasing revenues over the years would make it a darling of Wall Street. The problem is we spend even more. And, as recent reporting has documented, a good deal of that spending is lost to waste and fraud at every level of government.

"Let's try to fix what's broken," I told my friend, "instead of throwing more money on the dumpster fire."

"I see your point," he responded, "but we can't let problems fester waiting for a fix that might never come. And it's just wrong that these guys have so much when the need is so great."

At the end, neither of us changed our minds; we still viewed the American landscape differently. But given how bitterly divided our nation is, I found great value in just having the conversation; in respectfully listening to one another, making the effort to see where each is coming from. So much political discussion looks for fault lines in the other side's arguments rather than their strengths. We look to confirm our views rather than expand them. If we want to persuade others, the first thing we must do is listen to them. This seems obvious, so why don't we start doing it?

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 09:20

Former UK Prime Minister Admits Mass Migration Is Being Weaponized To Undermine Western Civilization

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

In the space of hours, Britain endured yet more random barbaric violence. A 17-year-old girl was stabbed in the neck on a quiet residential street in Burnley, Lancashire, and a 21-year-old man was murdered in Central Park, Chelmsford, Essex. These incidents form part of a relentless pattern of attacks that former Prime Minister Liz Truss directly links to mass migration policies and the deliberate undermining of British society.

Truss described institutions corrupted by leftist ideology that suppress facts about the root cause - mass migration - while left-wing politicians weaponise immigration to erode the nation state itself. The public is livid. The official response under Keir Starmer has been to target those exposing the problem rather than the problem itself.

On Friday afternoon, a 17-year-old girl was walking alone on a street in Burnley, a small town in northern England, when a man approached from behind and stabbed her in the back of the neck. Armed police responded swiftly. The victim was treated in hospital; her injuries were miraculously not life-threatening. A 30-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.

??A 30-year-old man was filmed stabbing a 17-year-old girl in neck in Burnley, England.

Now, a video has been published which reportedly shows the man being arrested.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/X4B1c4be3g

- Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 12, 2026

Lancashire Police confirmed the attack and deployed extra patrols for community reassurance. Whle mainstream reports omitted key background details, GB News reporter Charlie Peters later stated that Lancashire Police confirmed the suspect is a British-born man of Pakistani heritage.

Lancashire Police has confirmed that a 30-year-old British-born man of Pakistani heritage has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a 17-year-old girl was stabbed in the neck in Brierfield.

The force said that the girl's injuries were not life-threatening. pic.twitter.com/vim5VueLLY

- Charlie Peters (@CDP1882) June 13, 2026

Video footage circulating online shows the unprovoked attack and the subsequent arrest. Public reaction has been one of fury and exhaustion at yet another random stabbing of a young girl in broad daylight.

Hours later, emergency services were called to Central Park in Chelmsford, Essex after reports of a serious assault. A 21-year-old man was found with critical injuries and pronounced dead at the scene. He had been stabbed.

BREAKING: Police arrest three teenage murder suspects after man dies in Essex park https://t.co/4qLToIKyuL

- GB News (@GBNEWS) June 13, 2026

Essex Police arrested three teenagers - a 14-year-old boy, a 17-year-old boy and an 18-year-old man - all from the Chelmsford area, on suspicion of murder. They remain in custody. Detective Inspector Lydia George described it as a deeply distressing incident and confirmed no further suspects were being sought.

Literally cannot keep up with the amount of these in the UK now. https://t.co/uVhLa8SpTq

- m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) June 13, 2026

These cases arrive amid a documented surge in such violence that has become impossible to ignore.

In widely shared commentary, Truss argued that recent violent attacks reveal an establishment corrupted by DEI priorities that place ideology above equal treatment under the law. She stated that the response to public concern is suppression of information and attacks on those highlighting the root causes.

Truss described how left-wing politicians actively encourage immigration to undermine the basis of society and Western civilisation. She said they seek to erode the family and the nation state. When British people say they have had enough, the reaction from Starmer's government is to arrest and jail those who express concern.

"They want to undermine the family. They want to undermine the nation state. And people in Britain are saying 'we've had enough of this,'" Truss urged.

"People are absolutely livid about what's happening in our country," she continued, adding "Our institutions have become corrupted... by the DEI mentality, rather than focusing on everybody being treated equally under the law. Their response is to try and suppress what's happening... and attack those who are saying 'why are these things happening?'"

The Lancashire and Essex incidents follow closely on the heels of the horrific attack in Belfast earlier this week. There, an African migrant from Sudan named Hadi Alodid was involved in a street assault on a vulnerable local man, Stephen Ogilvie, in which the attacker attempted to saw off the victim's head in public.

Ogilvie, described as special needs and hard of hearing, had reportedly helped the migrants move into nearby accommodation just days earlier.

A local witness stated that two migrants were involved, not one, and that a second Sudanese man remained at large. The attack triggered widespread unrest in loyalist areas, with properties linked to recent arrivals targeted. Police rescued foreign nationals from burning buildings. The victim suffered life-changing injuries and remained in hospital.

And all of this comes in the wake of revelations surrounding the murder of Henry Nowak.

Official reports and much of the legacy media continue to downplay or omit perpetrator backgrounds in these cases, even as independent journalists and ordinary citizens document the pattern. The result is a two-tier information environment where facts about migration-linked violence are treated as dangerous while the violence itself continues.

When citizens notice the demographic reality of many perpetrators and the policy decisions that enabled their presence, the response is not honest examination but censorship and criminalisation of speech. Starmer's government has shown particular zeal in pursuing those protesting the consequences of mass migration, while insisting that the public avert its gaze.

This is not an accident of policy. It is the predictable outcome of decades of globalist open-border ideology that prioritised abstract diversity over the concrete safety and cohesion of existing communities. The British people did not vote for this transformation. They were never asked.

Britain's experience serves as a warning. Uncontrolled mass immigration, sold as compassion or economic necessity, has delivered neither safety nor prosperity for the native population in many areas. It has delivered parallel societies, imported crime patterns, and a political class more interested in silencing critics than protecting citizens.

The question for Britain is no longer whether the current trajectory is sustainable. It is how much more violence and cultural erosion the public will tolerate before demanding leaders who actually represent the interests of the country they govern. The facts are no longer suppressible. The people are no longer silent.

Just some of the innocent people murdered by migrants in modern England - the youngest being 5-years-old, the eldest 88.

We've since had near-fatal attacks in Belfast and Burnley.

When will enough be enough? How many more must die at the altar of diversity? ????????? pic.twitter.com/8dzWVcNVnw

- Suffragent (@Suffragent_) June 13, 2026

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 08:10

Sweden Sees Russia-NATO Conflict In 'Relatively Near Future'

Russia could test the NATO alliance's unity and its "all-for-one" collective defense commitments in the "relatively near future," Sweden’s Defense Commission has said, sounding the alarm in a fresh report issued Friday.

In the blunt interim report cited by Radio Sweden, the commission made it clear that Moscow's 'aggression' against the West is no longer a distant threat, but that "An armed attack against Sweden or our allies cannot be ruled out."

Getty Images

So far throughout the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year, it has been Baltic countries and the UK being the most out front in terms of claiming that Russia's aims are expansionist - a charge Moscow has vehemently and consistently denied.

But now it seems Sweden is hyping the supposed 'Russia will invade Europe' narrative, long a favored assumption among the more hawkish of European officials.

President Putin himself has denied repeatedly that his ordered 'special military operation' will go beyond Ukraine. While Europe sees Russia aims as based on aggression and going on the offensive, the Kremlin ironically enough sees its actions as fundamentally defensive. 

For example, Putin in a fresh address to Russian service members on Friday stated definitely, "It was they who carried out the coup d'etat in Ukraine, which forced us to take the people of Crimea under protection. When they started the war, they started bombing Donetsk using warplanes."

But the Swedish Defense Commission - a coalition of lawmakers and defense experts - has still warned that Europe's security landscape could deteriorate at breakneck speed.

Their prescription is a rapid, hands on and publicly acknowledged overhaul of both military and civil defense rearmament, in effect jumping on the bandwagon, considering the trend among bigger European powers like Germany.

Meanwhile, next door in Finland, Helsinki is keeping a laser focus on the Kremlin's movements. Both aforementioned Nordic countries actually share Arctic, far northern borders with Russia.

Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen told public broadcaster Yle that Russia is actively beefing up its military infrastructure and bolstering boots on the ground near the Finnish border.

"Russia is creating new military units, multiplying troop numbers, as well as building capability so that it can quickly mobilize troops from other parts of Russia," Hakkanen said.

Reports indicate that two Russian warplanes circled near Swedish airspace yesterday, prompting Sweden to scramble Jas 39 Gripen fighter jets to intercept them.

This appears to be a deliberate Russian probe, testing how quickly Sweden and NATO respond to gray-zone provocations.… pic.twitter.com/x5MKCMWKGv

— Global Strategy (@World_At_War_6) June 13, 2026

Reports do indicate Russia is actively constructing a new military garrison in Petrozavodsk, right in Finland's backyard.

But Russia in its own right does have serious reason to be concerned given the Western military alliance since the start of the Ukraine war has added these very countries as the newest NATO members. Swedenh joined as the 32nd member on March 7, 2024 and Finland was welcomed by Brussels as the 31st member on April 4, 2023.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 07:35

Indigenous Nonsense

Authored by Spyridon Andrews via American Greatness,

When the dust settles hundreds of years from now and people begin to assess the hows and whys of Western decline, the issue of colonialism will figure prominently.

We are traveling from Mexico City to San Miguel de Allende with “The Professor,” a San Miguel resident who makes extra money by driving tourists from Mexico City to San Miguel. The title of professor is honorary. He is a self-taught scholar, a writer, and a highly intelligent man who works odd jobs around San Miguel to earn a living. The Professor is sharing tales of the Aztec Empire with us as we drive northward, stopped only briefly by the friendly Mexican police who take their usual bribe of around $200 as insurance against being arrested for more serious crimes, real or fictitious.

The Professor goes on to tell us that all the horrible atrocities allegedly committed by the Aztecs were lies, all lies. Native American culture is burned into the mental DNA of Central Mexico. Children assemble on holidays dressed like little Aztec warriors for parades. There is pride in their Aztec heritage.

On the way back, we stop to see the pyramids outside Mexico City, and The Professor is full of information about this fascinating culture. He describes their innovation, tremendous power, and unrivaled legacy. The Professor is a proud man.

But despite my enormous respect for The Professor, the stories about the Aztecs are not lies. The Aztecs believed that the gods had sacrificed themselves to create the world and that, out of necessity, human blood was required to keep the sun moving across the sky. Human and animal sacrifice have been elemental features of nature religions throughout history. The harvest required blood.

The Aztecs sacrificed prisoners of war in religious ceremonies. The prisoners were led to the tops of temple pyramids, held down by priests, and had their hearts cut out while still alive. Their bodies were then strewn down the steps of the pyramid; the bloodier the spectacle, the better. Archaeological studies at sites such as Templo Mayor have uncovered racks of human skulls known as tzompantli. Human sacrifice was one of the things that made the empire go, alongside continual military conquest and tribute extraction. Subject peoples were required to provide food, textiles, luxury goods, labor, and, when the priests ran out of bodies, sacrificial victims. The Aztecs were so hated that many indigenous groups allied themselves with the Spaniards.

The Mayans also get a bit of a pass. They are remembered for their astronomy, mathematics, writing system, and cities, but not nearly as much for their human sacrifice, torture, and public humiliation of victims. Ritual killings were common, and murder was infused with religious meaning and legitimacy.

There is an awful lot of emphasis on the atrocities of the Spanish conquerors, and there should be. The conquistadores were not such nice guys either. But for all the talk about colonialism, few dare to examine it thoughtfully. Contrary to what they may believe over at Barnard or Smith College, fighting colonialism does not consist of wearing a mask into Philz Coffee. History shows that colonialism is not good or bad in the abstract, any more than all indigenous populations were terrific people who deserved to remain in power forever.

The coffee-shop view of colonialism assumes that moral legitimacy flows automatically from historical priority. We are told that people who arrived first possess a uniquely valid claim to the land and that later arrivals are forever burdened by a kind of original sin. Arguments about ownership in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and the Americas frequently revolve around the endlessly repeated question of who was there first. To which I say, is this the real question?

Human history is not a story of static populations peacefully occupying fixed territories. Human history is a bloody mess. It is a story of migration, conquest, assimilation, intermarriage, commerce, shifting alliances, and conflict. Before one group was there, another was there. And before them, another. The idea of an original owner is neither logical nor provable.

The notion that being “here first” creates a permanent political entitlement does not survive even minimal scrutiny. If first possession establishes political sovereignty, then every modern nation on earth is illegitimate. Every border, kingdom, republic, and civilization would need to defend itself against claims arising from earlier migrations and forgotten peoples.

Equally false are theological and mystical claims to land. In Israel today, three different religions claim rights to the same patch of desert based upon the authority of their holy books. Throughout history, religions have invoked divine authority to invade neighboring lands, expel inhabitants, and wage war. Whether the justification comes from Manifest Destiny, the Torah, the Talmud, the Koran, or some other sacred source, the underlying claim is essentially the same. And it is nonsense.

The more important question is not who was here first. The more important question is who governs well. I submit that political legitimacy is derived from creating conditions in which human beings can flourish. Legitimacy is established through justice, the protection of liberty, the maintenance of order and safety, the safeguarding of property, the encouragement of opportunity, and the principle that rulers themselves are subject to law.

Today’s discussions of colonialism often condemn it as a single phenomenon. Yet colonial ventures—and indigenous governments—varied enormously. Some colonial regimes were exploitative and destructive. Others introduced institutions that became the foundation of later prosperity. Most contained elements of both.

Some colonial regimes, like Great Britain in many instances, created railroads, ports, courts, universities, modern medicine, commercial systems, property rights, and civil administration. Historical analysis requires attention to actual results rather than slogans.

Under British administration, Hong Kong evolved from a relatively modest trading settlement into one of the world’s most prosperous financial centers. The British were not perfect, since they were, after all, British. But they created opportunities for millions of people over the century, or so they were in power. Then the indigenous Chinese government came into power, bringing its usual basket of fun.

Beijing imposed the National Security Law in 2020. Hong Kong went from one of the freest and most prosperous cities in Asia to a place where political dissent can land you in prison. Independent newspapers were shut down, activists jailed, elections restructured, and civic organizations dissolved. But don’t worry, because it was indigenous.

Singapore followed a different path. The British established a major international port, a functioning legal system, English-language administration, and commercial institutions. Singapore’s leaders built upon those foundations rather than dismantling them. The result was one of the most remarkable economic transformations in modern history. Today, Singapore is one of the safest, wealthiest, and most efficiently governed societies in the world. They built upon foundations laid by the evil colonizers.

Then there is India. British rule was far from one big tea party. Nevertheless, modern India inherited a nationwide civil service, a common-law legal system, rail networks, universities, administrative structures, and commercial institutions that continue to play important roles today. The British made considerable damage, the most lasting of which may be the Indian fascination with cricket, a hideous and boring game, along with the equally annoying habit of taking tea in the middle of a match.

So not all colonial empires are created equal. And now, we should also point out, not all indigenous cultures are created equal. There are many examples, including recent ones, of governments that enjoyed broad cultural support before delivering poverty, repression, corruption, economic stagnation, and the suppression of civil liberties. Cuba, Venezuela, and many African nations come readily to mind.

This confidence in indigenous culture is often paired with the equally dubious assumption that all cultures are equal in their outcomes. Sorry, despite what your anthropology professor told you, all cultures are not equal. Some encourage innovation, literacy, accountability, and economic development. Some protect women, minorities, and dissenters. Some cultivate the peaceful transfer of power. Others normalize violence, patronage, corruption, and disregard for human rights.

Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe was indigenous. He imposed political repression, economic mismanagement, hyperinflation, and destroyed the agricultural sector. He was handed the ball on the five-yard line and fumbled it. Idi Amin was indigenous. His regime became notorious for brutality and persecution. South Africa today has an indigenous government. So does Mexico. The fact that leaders share ancestry with the people they govern tells us nothing about whether they govern wisely.

And what about us? How much comfort should we take from the fact that our own political class is homegrown? Does it make endless debt, endless wars, corruption, and institutional decline more acceptable because the people responsible were born here?

History is not sentimental. It does not care who arrived first, whose ancestors crossed a particular river, or whose holy book claims title to a patch of ground. History does not award virtue based upon genealogy, ethnicity, race, religion, or indigeneity. It asks a far more practical question: What did you do with the place once you got it?

Did you create liberty or oppression? Prosperity or poverty? Justice or corruption? Did ordinary people have the opportunity to build families, businesses, communities, and meaningful lives? Were rulers constrained by law, or did they become laws unto themselves? Did your institutions survive your leaders, or did everything collapse into tribalism, violence, and decay?

That is how civilizations are judged. Rome is not remembered because Romans got there first. Britain is not remembered because Britons got there first. America will not be remembered because Americans got here first. They will be remembered for what they built, what they preserved, what they destroyed, and whether they expanded or diminished the possibilities of human flourishing.

In the end, legitimacy is not inherited. It is earned. It does not arise from ancestry, mythology, chronology, or blood. It arises from competence, justice, liberty, opportunity, and the rule of law. The question is not who was here first. The question has always been, and will always be, who governs well.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 07:00

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• The Cattle Empire That Turned Out to Be a Giant Ponzi Scheme: WSJ on the agricultural Ponzi nobody saw because the inventory was supposed to be on the hoof. The oldest frauds keep finding new collateral. Investors and bank loans fueled Brian McClain’s ‘house of cards’ beef operations, which burned through $170 million (Wall Street Journal)

• Fakes of the Future: Literary credibility in the age of AI. We have, I believe, crossed a new threshold, and all authored writing—novels, poems, screenplays, newspaper columns, not to mention love letters—will be judged according to which side of that divide it falls on. On one side are texts produced before the arrival of generative large language models (LLMs). On the other, everything that has followed—texts that might still be useful, even compelling, but that will always face a lingering suspicion of not being entirely human, of having been smoothed by systems trained to predict the word that comes next. We will come to prefer the former over the latter, not because it will be better, but because we will be more certain of its origins. LARB on what generative AI does to the marketplace of cultural authenticity. The piece takes the long view rather than the breaking-news view. (Los Angeles Review of Books)

• Polymarket sponsoring election conspiracies from far-right influencers: The “truth machine” is paying for election lies: Polymarket has sponsored posts from far-right influencers on X pushing election conspiracies and disinformation. Popular Information has uncovered a network of at least 16 influencers1, with a collective audience of 13 million, publishing election-related misinformation in posts sponsored by Polymarket. Judd Legum traces Polymarket’s ad spend through far-right influencer accounts amplifying election-fraud narratives. The prediction market with a thumb on the scale. (Popular Information) see also Kalshi asks paid influencers to delete posts sowing doubts over LA mayoral election: Kalshi on Friday asked some of its paid political influencers to remove X posts that sowed doubt about the integrity of the Los Angeles mayoral election while promoting Kalshi odds. Semafor scoops the prediction-market platform paying influencers to undermine election confidence, then scrambling to walk it back. The product’s incentives are the story. (Semafor)

• The SpaceX IPO and the End of Public Ownership: The hypocrisy that will emerge from this IPO should be bottled up and placed in the Louvre. On how SpaceX’s IPO structure mostly forecloses meaningful public ownership — supervoting shares, distribution mechanics, the works. The trend the market keeps not pricing. (Me and the Money Printer)

• Inside the White House Freakout Over the Epstein Files: The president’s top advisers gathered in a series of Situation Room meetings as they struggled to contain a scandal engulfing Donald Trump himself. NYT Magazine on the West Wing scramble around the Epstein documents release. The story is the freakout more than the contents. (New York Times Magazine)

• A Billionaire Explains Why American Business Now Feels like the Mafia: Matt Stoller relays a billionaire’s plain description of how American business now operates under the rules of organized crime rather than commerce. Bracing. In his autobiography “Born to Be Wired,” Warner board member and billionaire John Malone describes how he helped turn America into a society focused on greed and market power. (BIG by Matt Stoller)

• How America Gave Up on Its Own History: Unable to agree on how to interpret the American story, the country’s schools, universities, and political institutions have stopped trying to tell it at all. A long Atlantic feature on the collapse of any shared American historical narrative. The arguments will annoy you in different ways depending on your priors — that’s the point. (The Atlantic)

• The Untold Saga Behind an Infamous Male Supermodel Cult: Hollywood Reporter on the long-rumored male-model cult that turned out to be even weirder than the rumors. Some weeks, you just want a strange long-read. Once the world’s highest-paid male model, Hoyt Richards gave his last penny to a socialite conman who claimed to be an alien and preyed on the sexy and susceptible. A new HBO doc tells only half the story. (Hollywood Reporter)

• 5 ways daily cannabis use can affect your body and mind: WaPo on what the longitudinal data now shows about daily cannabis use — cardiovascular, cognitive, motivational. The conversation the legalization debate keeps refusing to host. (Washington Post)

• The ongoing corruption of the World Cup by Gianni Infantino: You can’t turn a blind eye to what is going on in America in particular. People often say you shouldn’t mix politics and sport, but that’s bullshit. Typically it comes from people whose own political views just can’t be reconciled with the beauty of sport and often football in particular. Anyway, how can anyone justify that stance when FIFA, the body that organises the World Cup, consistently and explicitly links the two? Arseblog’s running tally of the Infantino regime’s particular flavor of self-dealing. Funny because it’s earned. (Arse Blog) see also Everything wrong with the 2026 World Cup: From unprecedented wars and rip-off ticket prices to Gianni Infantino selling football’s soul and Donald Trump’s determination to create a “Maga World Cup”, Miguel Delaney details how the 2026 tournament has been riddled with controversy. The Independent’s pre-tournament catalog of geopolitical, logistical, and ethical problems with the Trump/FIFA World Cup. The Ringer’s optimism, on the rocks. (Independent)

Video of the day: Why the World Cup Is So Expensive

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Jean Eric Salata, Chair of EQT Group and Chair of EQT Asia. EQT is a purpose-driven global investment organization with over $310 billion in total assets under management, making it the largest private markets firm headquartered outside the United States.

Solar supplied 12.8% of US energy generation in May — the highest share ever, and the first time that solar surpassed coal in the US

Source: Sherwood

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The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Somaliland Opens Diplomatic Office In Taiwan Despite Strong Objections From Beijing

Via The Cradle

The breakaway African territory of Somaliland opened a new representative office in Taiwan on Friday, saying it had the right to establish diplomatic relations despite objections from Somalia.

"We have the right to choose who we have relationships with. It's our prerogative, and so it hasn't been successful as far as pressure tactics," stated Mahmoud Adam Jama ​Galaal, Somaliland's representative to Taiwan, at a press conference to mark the office opening.

Rti photo

Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu also spoke, saying, "Taiwan and Somaliland are both beacons of democracy, freedom, and rule of law."

Located on the strategic Horn of Africa, Somaliland has functioned as a de facto state since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, with its own governing institutions and security structures – despite receiving no recognition from any UN member state until Israel recognized it in December. 

Galaal added that Taiwan, which also lacks international recognition, is a "very important ally." Somaliland and Taiwan first established representative offices in each ⁠other's capitals in 2020.

Taiwan separated from China after the Chinese Civil War in 1949, when the defeated Nationalist government retreated to the island and established the Republic of China (ROC). The Chinese Communist Party established the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland and has claimed Taiwan as its territory since that time.

Galaal said Somaliland and Taiwan would not succumb to pressure from Beijing and Mogadishu to sever ties.

Somalia condemned Taiwan's attempts to establish "unauthorized" diplomatic relations with Somaliland.

“"Somaliland remains an inalienable part of Somalia, and we strongly condemn external attempts to bypass the legitimate federal government in Mogadishu," Ali Mohamed Omar, Somalia's minister of state for foreign affairs, stated on Friday.

After Israel became the first state to recognize Somaliland's claim to independence, Mogadishu condemned it as a “deliberate attack” on Somalia's sovereignty. 

Israel is seeking closer ties with Somaliland as part of its effort to establish military bases allowing it to project power in the Red Sea, including in the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, where Yemen's armed forces are dominant.

In a blow to Somaliland, Washington recently declared support for the sovereignty of Somalia.

A State Department report titled “Potential Areas for Improved US Engagement with Somaliland” was submitted to Congress on 1 June and published by the media on 2 June. 

In that report, the State Department said that Somaliland was a part of the Federal Republic of Somalia and the US maintains a positive relationship with Somaliland “within that framework.”

Republic of Somaliland has a right to choose its own relationships, and pressure tactics from Beijing and Mogadishu have not succeededin altering its friendship with Taipei, its top diplomat in Taiwan said on Friday at the opening of a new office. https://t.co/cGmMRvqROJ pic.twitter.com/7oynvCt6Sk

— REPUBLIC OF SOMALILAND (@RepOfSomaliland) June 12, 2026

A US congressional source told Middle East Eye (MEE) at the time that the US was not planning to recognize Somaliland. 

“Though lobbyists, including former Trump officials Tibor Nagy and Peter Pham, had raised the hopes of Somalilanders over US recognition, there was never a sign that the president would go through with it,” the congressional source said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/13/2026 - 23:20