Individual Economists

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Inside OpenAI’s Race to Catch Up to Claude Code: OpenAI is scrambling to catch up in the AI coding agent space, where Anthropic’s Claude Code has established a formidable lead. The competitive dynamics are fascinating. Why is the biggest name in AI late to the AI coding revolution? (Wired)

• Traders Are Ditching Giant Hedge Funds to Set Their Own Terms: Some are eschewing multimillion-dollar pay packages and access to resources at big firms. (Bloomberg)

• Why Tech Giants Are Ditching the Power Grid: Seeking power for data centers, Meta and other companies plan to use equipment that is expensive and polluting. It is the industrial version of what homeowners might do to get through a hurricane. Some technology companies are planning to rely on off-grid gas.  (New York Times)

• The Tesla Influencers Leaving the ‘Cult’: Tesla superfans are defecting en masse after what many called a “bait and switch”—when your most loyal evangelists turn on you, you’ve got a brand crisis, not just a PR problem.  The EV manufacturer is supported by a robust online community. But Elon Musk’s politics and overblown hype about Full Self-Driving are turning some loyalists away. (Wired)

• How Jeff Bezos Upended The Washington Post: The Bezos era at the Post has entered a turbulent new chapter—layoffs, editorial shifts, and questions about whether billionaire ownership and journalistic independence can coexist. The billionaire newspaper owner, dissatisfied by years of losses, wants the newsroom to double productivity with half its budget. (New York Times)

• Chinese Diplomacy in the Middle East War: Talking with Arabs, Voting with Russia China’s diplomatic efforts this week have been worth a post. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been working the phones. (The China-MENA Newsletter)

What the war has done to Iranians: A civilian in Tehran chronicles a country trapped between bombardment and repression—too terrorized to move, let alone start an uprising. (New Yorker)

• 23 Learnings on Building Community and Holding Space: A thoughtful distillation of what it takes to build real community—relevant reading for anyone managing teams, clients, or just trying to be more intentional about human connection. Re-composting learnings from failure, utopia, and everything in between (Wellness Wisdom)

Agents Over Bubbles. There is a weird paradox in terms of AI prognostication: on one hand, you don’t want to be the one to completely dismiss the most terrifying doomsday scenarios; who wants to be found out to be foolishly optimistic? At the same time, there is also pressure to give credence to the possibility that we are in a bubble, and all of this hype and spending is going to go belly up. Thompson argues the AI bubble narrative is overblown because agents represent genuine productivity gains, not just hype—a thoughtful counter to the skeptics, even if the timing is conveniently bullish. (Stratechery)

There are no psychopaths: Virtually everything you think you know about psychopathy has been thoroughly debunked. Why does this zombie idea live on? (Aeon)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Fund. Previously, he was at Legg Mason Capital Management covering specialty finance + consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Miller competed in the Poker World Series Main Event. He began his career working for his father, famed investor Bill Miller III.

Metaverse was a costly wrong turn, but it’s hardly the only money-burning technology misstep

Source: Sherwood

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Smith: The Political Left, Multiculturalism, & The Dark Alliance With Islam

Zero Hedge -

Smith: The Political Left, Multiculturalism, & The Dark Alliance With Islam

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

For 15 years the FBI was engaged in a landmark investigation into the largest Islamic-based charity in the United States, called The Holy Land Foundation. The organization was operating as a front for Muslim terror groups, funneling cash from western countries to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, until they were finally put on trial in 2008.

Convicted leaders were known as the “Holy Land Five,” and included Shukri Abu Baker, Ghassan Elashi, Mufid Abdulqader, Abdulrahman Odeh, and Mohammad El-Mezain. Among the documents seized from these individuals during the investigation was a strategic paper drafted by senior Muslim Brotherhood operative Mohamed Akram in 1991.

The paper was titled: “Explanatory Memorandum on the General Strategic Goal for the Group in North America”. It outlined an agenda called the “Civilization-Jihadist Process”, also known as “Stealth Jihad”.

The memorandum gave detailed methods for establishing Islam as a “civilization alternative” in the West and a “grand Jihad” for eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within. It called for the ‘sabotaging’ of the west and its “miserable house” by domestic hands AND the hands of the believers so that the west is eliminated and “God’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.”

The plan explicitly referred to using western society’s own people, institutions, laws, and unwitting allies (progressive groups and NGOs, media, politicians, academics, or civil-rights organizations) to advance the Islamic agenda.

Tactics included infiltration of education, media, government, finance, and alliances with non-Islamic actors “when tactically beneficial” while maintaining ideological separation. This is also called “long-term settlement” (tamkeen); a form of demographic or cultural subversion rather than direct conquest. It is often mentioned in the paper as “the settlement mission”.

A related 1982 Muslim Brotherhood document (called “The Project”) outlines a 100-year global plan with similar elements: building parallel societies, exploiting Western freedoms, and forming pragmatic coalitions.

One problem the Muslims wrestled with was the need for foreign alliances and western “advocates” to make immigration and the integration of Islam into target countries more “official”. Twenty-five years ago, this was considered all but impossible in the US and in Europe.  However, since around 2014, the Sharia fundamentalists found a willing and ready ally in the new “woke” left.

Today, the notion of even discussing the agenda of “Stealth Jihad” in a public venue in 2026 is labeled “racist” by progressive activists and left wing politicians (even though Islam is not a race). If you were to go back in time around 15 years ago and explain to people what is happening today in terms of third-world immigration, they would probably laugh in your face and call you a conspiracy theorist.

In 2026 in Europe the plan is nearly complete and in the US the plan is well underway. The change in how our society views Islam as an untouchable subject is largely due to a dark and convenient political alliance between the woke left and the Stealth Jihad.

Only recently has the problem of Muslim immigration risen to the forefront of media coverage, but only because of the work of citizen journalists like Nick Shirley who are exposing widespread fraud among migrants. The majority of this fraud, whether it is in Minnesota or California, is connected to Somali Muslim immigrants and is perpetrated with the help of leftist NGOs and politicians.

Coming from a country with an average IQ of 67, these people are not capable of instituting such a plan on their own. They had help and it is clear that Democrats are deeply involved in these operations, perhaps in exchange for financial kick-backs, but certainly in exchange for votes (Somali migrants in Minnesota voted 80% in favor of Democrats in 2024).

It’s not surprising, but there are a lot of similarities between progressives in the west and third world Islamic migrants from the east.

The political left has long held an agenda similar to Stealth Jihad. In Marxism it is referred to as “cultural hegemony” or “the long march through the institutions”. It is associated with the work of Antonio Gramsci, the founder of the Italian Communist Party. Interestingly, his ideas of cultural hegemony are often studied as a means of better understanding the agenda of Stealth Jihad.

Gramsci’s approach (developed in his Prison Notebooks in the 1920s–1930s) argued that in advanced capitalist societies the “ruling class” maintains power through cultural hegemony. To overthrow this, he asserted that revolutionaries must wage a “war of position” rather than a frontal assault.

This meant infiltrating and capturing key institutions (schools, universities, media, churches, judiciary, government bureaucracies) to erode cultural norms, reshape public consciousness, and create counter-hegemony until socialism/communism becomes the new ideological norm. We have witnessed this nightmare in vivid color with the woke movement of the past decade.  For the longest time the agenda was dismissed as “conspiracy.”

I would also point out that the general attitudes of third world migrants and leftists are essentially the same when it comes to production and survival: Both groups view producers as targets for piracy. Why would they integrate into western society, work hard and build for the future when they can feed off the production of others? Why create their own wealth when it is so much easier to pillage the wealth of people who innovate, construct and save?

But this partnership goes far beyond easy cash and socialized living into the realm of ideological and religious warfare. As noted, Stealth Jihad is about the exploitation of western freedoms and open systems as a means to invade and drive out the native religions (Christianity).

The Christian belief system is essential to western civilization. Whether or not a person living in the west believes in it doesn’t matter; they still benefit from the inherent Christian drive to build, structure and maintain a moral and ordered society based on rules for EVERYONE.

You would think that a partnership between Islam and the woke cult would be completely antithetical. After all, Muslim societies are defined by the rule of dominance, tribalism and brutal theocracy. There is zero tolerance in Islamic society for feminism, homosexuality, transgender theory or atheism. The Marxist world is rooted in atheism and moral relativism – The deconstruction of societal norms and the idea that unchecked hedonism is the ultimate form of freedom.

However, each group is beneficial to the other; they serve each other’s purposes. They also have the same primary enemy (Christianity). This intersection of benefits and shared hatred is where we find “Multiculturalism” – The agenda to wipe out the west using third-world immigration as a bulldozer.

Multiculturalism is simply an updated version of Gramsci’s Marxist cultural hegemony strategy, combined with third world notions of ethnic supremacy or religious supremacy. If you want to understand what is happening in places like the EU or the UK; if you want to know why these governments are completely ignoring the will of the public and blatantly aiding an Islamic invasion, this is why.

These are leftist governments with a clear objective to eliminate competing western and Christian ideals in order to establish a new cultural hegemony, and they are doing it subversively by using liberal values as a cudgel. Modern Europeans, fearful of ever being accused of “bigotry”, refuse to admit that they are committing high-minded suicide. Blind acceptance of immigration and the inability to discriminate logically is setting Europe on the path of total collapse.

This is what the Marxists want, and this is what the Muslims want. It’s much easier to pirate and enslave a population in the midst of social and economic crisis.

In the US we see a similar plan, though, leftists are working much harder to present Muslim migrants as ideologically aligned with liberalism. When conservatives see groups like “Queers for Palestine”, or we see New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani hiring transgenders for his administration while holding Muslim dinners on the floor of his office, what we are witnessing is the theatrical facade of “inclusivity.”

At bottom, these people do not share viewpoints that can truly “intersect”, but their short term goals are the same. Leftists hate conservatives and Christians because we represent a rules based order that stands in the way of their vision of pure hedonism. Muslims see conservatives and Christians as an obstacle to global Islam.

If the conservative west was theoretically defeated and we disappeared, the left and the Muslims would certainly turn on each other. Each group probably thinks they can control the other group when the time comes.

As the war in Iran moves forward, I have little doubt that we will see an exploding insurgency from leftists and Muslims in the US which will force us to question our foundational concepts of a “free and open society”. We will be forced to acknowledge that these exalted ideas cannot be applied to everyone. Specifically, they cannot be applied to people who want to destroy us. At bottom, the “rights” of people waging war upon us do not matter.

The question is, can we survive such a war and come out the other side with a constitutional republic intact? I think we can, but such a system would have to parse out and separate from ideological groups that see the west as a target (the Founding Fathers would NEVER have tolerated an anti-west invasion). We must accept, finally, that we cannot coexist in freedom with such people.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 23:05

Watch: China Claims Cyborg Breakthrough To Build An "Army Of Centaurs"

Zero Hedge -

Watch: China Claims Cyborg Breakthrough To Build An "Army Of Centaurs"

Researchers at Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen have unveiled a wearable robotic system that adds a pair of independent mechanical legs and a torso framework to a human wearer, forming a four-legged hybrid to assist with carrying heavy loads across difficult terrain such as stairs, ramps, and uneven ground, according to the South China Morning Post.

Led by Chenglong Fu, the team of scientists designed the device to combine human cognitive advantages in path planning and decision-making with robotic capabilities for load-bearing and endurance in environments too hazardous or complex for fully autonomous systems. An elastic coupling mechanism synchronizes the robotic legs with the user's movements, allowing the hybrid to share more than half the payload weight while preserving natural gait and balance.

The system consists of two independent robotic legs and a robotic torso which can be attached to the user via a compliant elastic interface forming a four-legged human-centaur. Photo: Handout

In tests, the system cut the wearer’s net metabolic cost of walking while carrying a 44-pound load by 35% compared with a conventional backpack and reduced peak plantar pressure by 52%, fueling media speculation in China that the technology could serve as the foundation for a large-scale “army of centaurs” to augment the Asian superpower’s military personnel.

The Chinese military's ongoing investment in exoskeleton technologies to boost troop stamina suggests potential military applications for these human-augmented systems, though the device's bizarre appearance has prompted criticism and mockery, reports the SCMP.

The breakthrough comes amid the escalating rivalry in robotics between the United States and China. Recently, executives from Boston Dynamics and Scale AI testified before a House Homeland Security subcommittee, warning that China's progress in humanoid robots presents national-security concerns. Witnesses advocated for coordinated federal measures, such as broader export controls on AI chips and restrictions on government procurement of Chinese robotic technologies, to safeguard U.S. leadership.

As we previously reported, broader anxiety over China's manufacturing dominance extends beyond robotics.

Following a trip to China last fall, Greg Jackson, CEO of the British energy company Octopus, recounted touring a near-autonomous "dark factory" producing mobile phones with minimal human oversight.

We visited a dark factory producing some astronomical number of mobile phones,” Jackson told The Telegraph at the time.

“The process was so heavily automated that there were no workers on the manufacturing side, just a small number who were there to ensure the plant was working. You get this sense of a change, where China’s competitiveness has gone from being about government subsidies and low wages to a tremendous number of highly skilled, educated engineers who are innovating like mad.”

Australian mining magnate Andrew Forrest abandoned plans to develop electric-vehicle powertrains in-house after witnessing China’s fully robotic assembly lines where machines emerge from the floor to build trucks with zero human intervention over long conveyors.

Morgan Stanley analysts project the humanoid robotics sector could swell to a $5 trillion market by 2050, encompassing sales, supply chains, maintenance, and support networks, with potentially over 1 billion units deployed globally by mid-century.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 22:40

Inside Iran's Internet Access Black Market Amid 3-Week Wartime Blackout

Zero Hedge -

Inside Iran's Internet Access Black Market Amid 3-Week Wartime Blackout

Via Middle East Eye

Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Iranian authorities have sharply restricted access to the internet. According to NetBlocks, a group that monitors internet access worldwide, Iran has experienced a near-total blackout for 20 consecutive days. Connectivity has dropped to less than one percent.

For those trying to access the internet, options are limited. Some rely on Starlink, which is not widely used. The equipment is expensive and difficult to import. Iranians also believe is easier for the authorities to detect. Others turn to VPNs (virtual private networks) and custom configurations that can be installed on their phones to mask traffic and bypass censorship.

Elaheh, who like all Iranians spoke to Middle East Eye using a pseudonym for security reasons, has managed to get online with difficulty. She says she bought access through the black market.

WANA via Reuters

"There are people on Telegram who sell VPNs and configurations," she says. "You have to be lucky. Usually, someone you know has to introduce you."

She explains how it works in simple terms: "They don’t really sell a normal VPN. They give you a configuration. You put it into your phone settings, and then use apps like OpenVPN to connect."

Telegram remains one of the most widely used apps in Iran. People use it for news, communication and everyday life. Now, it has also become a place where VPN sellers advertise their services. But not all of them can be trusted.

High prices and scams

Maryam says she was one of the unlucky ones. She found a seller through a friend. He offered her a one-week unlimited VPN for 70m rials - roughly $45-$50.

"I paid the money," she says. "But after that, he told me all the connection routes had been blocked by the government, and that it wasn’t possible to connect."

Days later, she is still waiting. The seller keeps making excuses. He has not provided access and has not returned her money. Stories like hers are becoming more common, but there are plenty of trustworthy sellers on the black market too.

Alireza, 32, studied computer engineering and now sells VPN access. He agreed to explain how the system works, though he is clearly worried about the risks.

"When the internet is restricted in Iran, usually one of two things happens," he says. "Either certain websites are blocked, or the connection to the global internet becomes slow or limited."

He says the system is not completely shut down. "It’s controlled and filtered," he says. "That’s why we can still find ways to provide access."

According to Alireza, users buy a technical setup, not just a simple app. "We give them a configuration," he says. "It includes the server address, port, protocol, and encryption key."

Users then connect through tools like OpenVPN or V2Ray, which route their traffic through servers outside Iran. "In simple terms, it looks like they are connecting from another country," he says.

Warnings and risks

Using these tools is not without risk. Arman, a VPN user, says the connection is unstable and often cuts out. But what worries him more are the warnings. "I’ve received several text messages," he says. "They said security agencies know I’ve been connecting to the global internet."

The messages warned that if he continued, he could face consequences. Since the start of the war, Iranian security and law enforcement officials have repeatedly announced that they have arrested people accused of selling VPNs and other tools that help users bypass internet restrictions.

Alireza says the situation has become more serious than before. "This is no longer just about selling VPNs," he says. "It has become a security issue." Sellers are now much more careful. "We prefer to deal only with people we already know," he says. "Even a phone call or a message could be from security forces."

Prices keep rising

As the blackout continues, prices are rising fast. Pegah, 29, says she has had internet access since the early days of the war - but it has become more expensive each week.

"At first, I bought a one-week package for 10m rials," she says. "I didn’t trust the seller enough to buy more."

A week later, the price jumped. "It went up to 30 million," she says. "And when I wanted to buy for a friend, the seller said it had increased again - to 50 million per week."

She says she was lucky. Her connection works. Others have not been so fortunate. "One of my friends paid 100m rials," she says. "And most of the time, the connection didn’t even work."

Access to the internet has become expensive, unreliable and uncertain. But it’s a familiar pattern. In recent years, cutting internet access has become a common response by authorities during times of crisis - whether protests or external conflict. Elaheh says the impact is immediate.

"They always take it out on ordinary people first," she says. "This kind of shutdown just creates more anger." She pauses, then adds: "I really don’t know what goes through the minds of those making these decisions. It feels like all they know is how to make people more frustrated."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 22:15

First-Ever Look At America's Classified RQ-180 Stealth Drone?

Zero Hedge -

First-Ever Look At America's Classified RQ-180 Stealth Drone?

The world is seemingly at war. With multi-front conflicts raging in Eastern Europe and intensifying in the Middle East, this period of elevated World War III risk has coincided with the emergence of some of America’s most advanced stealth aircraft.

The latest sighting comes from the Greek news website OnLarissa, which reports that a planespotter captured a "mysterious" stealth-bomber-like aircraft operating near Larissa, Greece, near the Hellenic Air Force (HAF) base.

The local outlet stated, "The ferocious warplane was reportedly parked due to a malfunction at the 110th Fighter Wing military airfield," adding that the plane was likely an "American superweapon, the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit."

However, well-seasoned US-based journalists who specialize in aviation and military coverage at The Aviationist disagree with OnLarissa's assessment that the plane is the B-2 Spirit. In fact, they suggest this could be the first-ever glimpse of the highly classified, next-generation stealth surveillance drone, the RQ-180, developed by Northrop Grumman.

"The closest match we can find, corroborated by anonymous sources with some familiarity with the clandestine jet, is with the famous (yet still classified) intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance UAV operated by the U.S. Air Force that we have come to know as the RQ-180," The Aviationist reporter Kai Greet wrote in a note.

Greet pointed out, "Larissa is no stranger to a U.S. military presence, and has hosted MQ-9 Reaper detachments on an ongoing basis. It does remain unclear, though, if these images genuinely depict an RQ-180." 

Across the Atlantic and over the Mojave Desert, a planespotter captured what he believed was the USAF testing the B-21 Raider stealth bomber earlier this week (view here).

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 21:50

Tax Season Will Bring Record Refunds. Use Them Wisely

Zero Hedge -

Tax Season Will Bring Record Refunds. Use Them Wisely

Authored by Marc Cadin via RealClearMarkets,

Affordability is the defining economic challenge for millions of Americans. A recent poll found that 70% of Americans report that the cost of living is no longer affordable where they live, a concern that was highlighted in the most recent elections. From rising housing costs to the grocery aisle to the electricity bill, families are struggling to stay afloat.  

This year, however, many households will finally get relief thanks to a new federal policy. 

Signed into law this summer, the Working Families Tax Cut will deliver one of the largest tax refunds on record.  According to early estimates, the average tax filer will receive more than $3,700, a roughly $1000 increase from previous years. Military families are expected to receive an additional $1,776

At a time when families’ budgets are stretched thin, this policy is putting real cash into their wallets.  

There will be plenty of headlines this spring about the large refunds Americans will receive. But the success of this policy shouldn’t be measured by the dollars distributed this year. The larger question is whether American families will be more financially secure in the decades to come.  

For many households, this will be a financial inflection point. These refund checks can make a pivotal difference in creating an emergency fund, preparing for retirement, and saving for college tuition. 

When the large refund hits a checking account, however, the easiest decision is often the fastest one. Immediate needs and flashy purchases compete for our attention, while building savings requires an attention to detail that can be difficult in the moment.

Americans want to build a strong economic future, but personal finance continues to challenge us.  More than 60% of Americans don’t have a written financial plan, and nearly two-thirds couldn’t pass a financial literacy test.  

These financial illiteracy gaps come at a real cost.  On average, Americans lose $1,000 per year due to a lack of financial knowledge. Without the right tools and guidance, historic tax refunds may fail to improve long-term financial security. 

This policy won’t guarantee financial health alone. The real test is whether these refunds translate into long-term financial well-being. 

  • Some families may take advantage of existing savings incentives. From 529 college plans to the Trump Savings Accounts, there are plenty of already established government programs that allow Americans to stretch today’s dollars into tomorrow’s security.  
  • Others will invest in low-risk, high-yield options. These accounts may lack the flash of crypto, but compound interest gives families the ability to build stability.  A high-yield savings account typically returns around 4% annually, and the S&P 500 returns around 10%. These accounts require minimal maintenance and will create the savings necessary for long-term savings. If you continuously put your money away there, decades down the road, you will see your money expand. 

  • Many families will consult experts. In every community, financial professionals can advise on how to create a portfolio that makes sense for a family and their future. Financial planning is like going to the dentist. If you stay on top of your annual check-ups, your financial health will improve. 

The Working Families Tax Cut provides millions of Americans with a rare chance to reset their finances. Whether it becomes a fleeting windfall or the foundation of a lasting fiscal health will depend on what families do next.

Marc Cadin is the CEO of Finseca, an organization of more than 6000 financial security professionals dedicated to helping people protect and enhance their financial well-being. Finseca stands for Financial Security for All.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 21:25

IDF Iron Dome Operator Arrested, Charged With Spying For Iran

Zero Hedge -

IDF Iron Dome Operator Arrested, Charged With Spying For Iran

There's quite obviously been Israeli intelligence inroads into Iran, which at times US and Israeli officials themselves have boasted about, with Tehran recently announcing efforts to round up and arrest "traitors" - and there's even in some cases been executions of the accused.

Inside Israel, there are also fears of locals spying for Israel - but the phenomenon remains much less common (as far as anyone knows). That's why the latest headlines are likely a shock to the Israeli establishment. On Friday an Israeli reservist tied to the country’s missile defense network has been charged with serious security offenses after allegedly working with Iranian intelligence.

Police have identified Raz Cohen, a 26-year-old from Jerusalem, who served in the Iron Dome unit, as the alleged culprit. It's been revealed he was arrested March 1, merely one day after the joint US-Israel war on Iran kicked off. "These included passing sensitive security information to the Iranian agent during December 2025, including details about how Iron Dome works, locations of Israeli Air Force bases, and the locations of Iron Dome batteries," writes Times of Israel.

via Anadolu Agency

As for the period of time in which the alleged spying took place, authorities indicate it took place several months before the outbreak of the current war, and that Cohen knew exactly who he was communicating with, but is believed to have merely received $1000 in cryptocurrency.

Israeli law designates that assisting the enemy during wartime carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment; but in some exceptional cases the death penalty can be handed down.

Prosecutors say he was in contact for months with Iranian handlers, who tasked him with carrying out "a variety of security missions" - including passing along sensitive defense information he accessed during his service.

According to some observations in The Telegraph:

A police statement announcing the charges warned citizens against having contact with agents from enemy countries, and pointed out the particular risk of agents making contact via social media.

Israel itself is thought to make widespread use of social media to approach and recruit agents in Iran.

According to intelligence sources speaking before the current campaign, many Iranians who end up passing information to Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, never realize they are working for Israel.

These fresh reports of the Raz Cohen are huge, given Israel's air defenses have been immensely strained by the sustained Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks which have been ongoing, and ebbing and flowing, since Iran was attacked by the US and Israel three weeks ago.

There are also reports that portions of the Israeli citizenry are angry and frustrated, many now living their lives in underground bomb shelters, as casualties mount. The Netanyahu government has come under accusations of underestimating the Iranian missile threat, and giving false assurances to the public. Did Iran have an advantage by utilizing spies in Israel who had access to key elements of defensive systems, exposing weaknesses? It appears so, the Cohen case suggests, at least to some degree.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 21:00

The Scapegoat: How One Man's Career Was Ended By MeToo

Zero Hedge -

The Scapegoat: How One Man's Career Was Ended By MeToo

Authored by Nancy Rommelmann via RealClearInvestigations,

Life on Jan. 9, 2020, was interesting for Joshua Helmer. At 31, he was midway through his second year as CEO of the Erie Art Museum in Pennsylvania.

He had recently secured the loan of a Chuck Close painting from the Philadelphia Museum of Art, and an upcoming sale, including a painting by another famous artist, David Hockney, would help Erie generate funds to buy new works.

And then it was Jan. 10.

"I knew I'd never work again," Helmer said, recalling his reading of a New York Times article that ran that day. 

"He Left a Museum After Women Complained; His Next Job Was Bigger," was co-bylined by veteran Times reporter Robin Pogrebin and Zachary Small, then a freelancer. The article listed allegations from women against Helmer from his time as assistant director for interpretation at the Philadelphia Museum of Art (PMA), a position he said he resigned from a year-and-a-half earlier. 

Nine women told the Times that Helmer made “advances” toward them, and four of these co-workers said they became romantically involved or lived with Helmer both during and after his tenure at PMA. The allegations ranged from the women being made to feel as though Helmer had the power to hold back their promotions, to his yelling at them, insulting their intelligence, or saying things they found unnerving; a woman identified as "a former Philadelphia Eagles cheerleader" told the Times, “I worked in the NFL for five years and no one spoke to me in a way that made me feel that uncomfortable.” 

There were no public allegations that Helmer directly pressured any of the women to have sex or engaged in any unwanted sexual behavior. He did allegedly suggest to one woman that she should “get to know him” to help her career, according to the Times.

There was one additional complaint from an Erie Art Museum female intern who provided the Times with a screenshot of a text Helmer sent, asking whether she wanted to have a coffee on the deck of his apartment, to which she replied, "No. Can't sorry."

Six years on, the fervor of MeToo has cooled. While some people brought down by MeToo gained a semblance of their previous standing, others, like Helmer, have not. He self-exiled to northern Pennsylvania, took up woodworking, and hasn't worked again.

At the peak of MeToo, arguing that permanent banishment might be too much was a nonstarter. How could women (and some men) feel safe if those who sexually preyed on them were not shunned in ways that assured they could never prey on anyone else again? There was solidarity in seeing men get their comeuppance, a sense of pride for having the courage to come together with other women and speak up. That campaigns could get overheated, destroying the careers of some men whose actions, while sometimes troubling, might not deserve such harsh punishment, did not at the time seem worth considering. Who cared what happened to guys like Helmer? 

“A Weird Day”

The Times did not paint Helmer as a 100% cad. "Women who dated Mr. Helmer said they were attracted to him at first because they found him warm, affectionate and confident," the authors wrote. While all said the relationships had been consensual, each of Helmer's accusers eventually felt undervalued, belittled, or suspected they had been retaliated against. 

Although the women said they felt emotionally abused by Helmer, he never faced lawsuits stemming from their allegations. And while the Times insinuated some official wrongdoing – writing that “Mr. Helmer resigned for reasons that have not been disclosed” – Helmer told the newspaper he had left of his own accord. That his departure from PMA did not seem clearly connected to the women’s accusations made it all the more curious that the newspaper saw the story as worth running on Page 1 of the Arts section.

Or would have been curious, had it not been January 2020, when MeToo was at full velocity. Hundreds of well-known, powerful figures had and were about to lose their careers (Matt Lauer, Mario Batali, Kevin Spacey); some went to prison for charges as serious as serial rape (Harvey Weinstein, Bill Cosby, Danny Masterson).

Helmer was not accused of monstrous acts, nor was he well-known or powerful. He earned $70,000 a year at PMA. He was not executive-level and, according to a former department coordinator at PMA, did not have the authority to hire, fire, or promote, a detail that might have tempered the implied power imbalance the Times piece was in part predicated on.

Another detail that could have given the Times reporters pause came from the Erie Art Museum board president, who emailed the paper to say that, aside from the declined coffee invitation, "no other allegations had been brought to the board’s attention." Nevertheless, the consequences for Helmer were immediate. 

"The phone's ringing off the hook nonstop. And that night we had an emergency board meeting," Helmer said in an interview with RealClearInvestigations. "The board members came into my office, and they were like, 'There's just no way forward from this.'"

Without the institutional stamina to fight whatever might be coming their way, Erie accepted Helmer's resignation on Jan. 13, after which, Helmer recalled, the board president drove him home. "We sat in the driveway, and I was like, 'Wow, that was a weird day.'"

The weirdness continued. In the two months after Helmer left Erie, the Times ran four more pieces about the saga. Each article was co-bylined by Zachary Small, who had initially looked into Helmer for The Art Newspaper, an influential visual arts outlet where Small was then associate editor for investigations. The Art Newspaper, however, declined to run the Helmer piece because, as the paper's former editor, Alison Cole, recently told RCI, "The Art Newspaper only runs stories we can verify." 

Symbol of Male Dominance

The Times, on the other hand, evidently saw Helmer as part of a larger story about the male dominance of the museum world. 

"This [story] was somewhat informed by a much larger culture of patriarchy at these institutions," Robin Pogrebin said on the podcast Museum Confidential, four days after the Times ran the story detailing Helmer's exit from Erie. "I think it's important to think about this as a referendum on the industry to some extent and how important it is to have more balance in terms of gender."

If the aftereffects came quickly for Helmer, they also came for Small, who, up until the Helmer piece, had contributed two pieces to the Times. In 2020, Small (who uses they/them pronouns) had 41 bylines in the paper. In 2023, they became a staff writer. 

Which might have been the end of the story but for an incident in November 2025, when the then-CEO at the Philadelphia Museum of Art was fired, thus dragging Helmer's name back onstage.

"I'm like a recurring character in a sitcom or soap opera," Helmer said. "The [audience] is like, 'Oh, we thought he was kicked in the head by a horse. Oh, he's back!' You make these small cameos. And then to see another piece added on five years later... it'll never be done."

The Maw of MeToo

There are many essential reasons to uncover the rot that historically allowed sexual misconduct to be swept away. Two reporters rightly celebrated for their MeToo coverage were Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey at the Times, whose 2017 expose, “Harvey Weinstein Paid Off Sexual Harassment Accusers for Decades," won the 2018 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for detailing the sexual crimes of the powerful head of Miramax Films. This was important work, revealing the power imbalance felt by many women in Weinstein's orbit, a disparity that could lead to fear – of having one's career sabotaged and for one's personal safety – and acquiescing to Weinstein's demands for sex. It was also careful work. According to two high-level employees at the Times, when the Weinstein expose ran, Kantor and Twohey did not include several accusers whose stories they did not feel could be made watertight.

Three years later, such care at the paper appeared to have slackened. Perhaps the maw that was MeToo needed to be fed. Perhaps the incentives for breaking a big new MeToo story in an arena where there had not been one were too tempting. 

"We've been wondering, in the museum community, when this would land on this industry," said Jeff Martin, host of the Museum Confidential episode featuring Pogrebin and Small. Small responded that they had “received an anonymous tip telling me to look into the Philadelphia Museum of Art." The tip would have been around September 2019, more than a year and a half after Helmer left PMA. Nevertheless, on Nov. 13, Small sent Helmer a 700-word email, with the subject line, URGENT PRESS REQUEST, and giving Helmer 48-hours to respond to 23 detailed questions.

Journalists do not, as a rule, send cold interview requests this demanding, not if they are hoping for a reply. That Small sent it concurrently to several of Helmer's former colleagues at PMA, as well as to the boards of PMA and Erie, seemed to Helmer very much like a trap.

"I was really quite shocked," he said.

Fallout Becomes Opportunity

Whether Small intended to throw into turmoil the staff of both museums, that is what happened. On Nov. 14, Marla Shoemaker, then PMA senior curator of education, called a department staff meeting the next day. According to someone at the meeting who took contemporaneous notes, nearly two dozen museum staff showed up. Nancy Brennan, head of Human Resources, opened the meeting by saying, "We are going to address the elephant in the room."

What elephant?  the attendee recalled thinking.

Brennan said the museum could not disclose why Helmer left PMA, but to put to rest speculation, there had never been any claim of sexual harassment during his time there. Brennan and Shoemaker went on to discuss ways to make the staff feel supported, such as a commitment to a strict "no-retaliation policy" for staff who came forward with complaints. 

This was apparently insufficient for Adam Rizzo, a museum educator who called Helmer "a sociopath" and demanded he be banned from the museum due to staff still being affected by "the situation," according to meeting notes. To at least one attendee, Rizzo's comments about Helmer seemed preloaded. Alicia Parks – the former NFL cheerleader – seconded not wanting Helmer on museum property, a request Shoemaker said she would work on with security. 

Other former colleagues were at a loss. They had never felt threatened by Helmer. And what was "the situation" Rizzo referred to?

Since at least May 2019, Rizzo had been trying to rally support to form a union, according to an article in Philadelphia Magazine. Helmer now seemed to play a role in Rizzo's union strategy. "Welcome" materials sent to prospective members and obtained by RCI called out "Patriarchy, misogyny, racism, ageism and other-isms in institutional culture," and named Helmer as an example of a "Culture of silencing and enabling."

A short-lived Twitter account with the handle @artandmuseumtransparency repeatedly posted tweets such as, "We're getting word that @TheArtNewspaper may be sitting on a major museum MeToo story?? Sitting for more than a month and now planning to publish an altered version, without getting consent from those who came forward or the article's author??" Rizzo told one meeting attendee he had "emailed the reporter" and was hoping to hear back soon, and later made Instagram posts about PMA needing a union and disparaging Helmer specifically. 

It remains unconfirmed whether Rizzo was the anonymous source who got Small interested in Helmer. Reached for comment about the Helmer affair, Rizzo told RCI, "Not interested."

Meanwhile, at the Erie Art Museum, Helmer did not reply to Small's lengthy email. He said he forwarded it to Lucia Conti, director of marketing at Erie, who agreed it was best to ignore it. While Helmer could not say if Small wanted to take him down, he considered whether the several women at PMA he'd been romantically involved with, at times concurrently, might have wanted to. 

According to Helmer, his most serious relationship had been with Rachel Nicholson, who had lived with him in Philadelphia during part of their time at PMA and moved with him to Erie. Helmer said the relationship did not work out in part because Nicholson learned he had been unfaithful. The former couple had not been in contact for more than a year when he received a text from Nicholson in December 2019, saying she was looking forward to an article about him in the New York Times. 

Within a week, Helmer was contacted by Pogrebin, asking to interview him. With Conti in his office, Helmer spoke with the reporter, who, according to notes Conti took at the time, seemed “audibly disappointed” not to be speaking to Helmer alone. Pogrebin asked Helmer about dating PMA staff and stated that doing so was “problematic.” Helmer countered that he had "followed PMA policy." Pogrebin said several staff members said he "displayed harassing behavior." Helmer said that he was unaware of such claims and wondered why, after nearly two years away from PMA, the Times was interested in him now. According to Conti's notes, the Times reporter said it was because "so many women were damaged by your behavior and it involves a large institution." Pogrebin did not reply to an email from RCI asking for comment.

The conversation lasted less than 15 minutes. When Pogrebin said she would be back in contact with Helmer, Conti assured her that in any future discussions, "the answers to the questions you have asked us today will be the same."

Celebrating Helmer’s Downfall

There were no future calls. On Jan. 10, the Times ran its first story on Helmer. That same day, a woman Helmer had never met started a petition on Change.org titled, "Stop The Abuse And Predation: Fire Joshua Helmer, Erie Art Museum." That evening, Nicholson posted an Instagram photo of herself having celebratory drinks with two of the other women in the Times piece who had also dated Helmer, with a caption that read in part, "Overwhelmed by the support and grace that I have received today and throughout this process." The responses to the photo were full of admiration and heart emojis.

They were not feeling the love at PMA. On Jan. 14, the education department called another meeting. According to notes taken by an attendee, CEO Timothy Rub said he had received two complaints about Helmer’s behavior while he worked at PMA, the details of which he said he could not disclose. “Did we act?” he asked rhetorically. “Yes, on both accounts.” Although neither complaint resulted in discipline, Shoemaker, the curator of education, said the alleged behavior had happened on her watch and apologized for any harm Helmer had done. Rizzo stated he had previously seen "women and interns crying at their desks" and, since the Times article appeared, was "hearing more now online."

Back in Erie, Helmer braced for further condemnation. In addition to several publications picking up the Times reporting and writing their own versions of the story, Pogrebin and Small published a fifth piece on March 10 rehashing the allegations against Helmer, after which the story either ran out of steam or was replaced by wall-to-wall coverage of the pandemic.

Several former colleagues urged Helmer to counter the accusations, perhaps even file a lawsuit. He declined. He did not reach out to any of his accusers, and never heard from any of them again. "In terms of fighting back. I always felt like, if I hurt you enough that this is what you felt was right, then the pound of flesh is yours," he would later tell RCI.

Had the pound of flesh been what Helmer's accusers wanted? Had they been swept up in the enthusiasm of MeToo? Six years on, RCI made contact with all but one of the women named in the article. Parks was asked if she might reveal what Helmer said that had made her "that uncomfortable." Nicholson was asked about the support she had received. The woman who'd created the Change.org petition – which gathered 3,000 signatures in three days and, the day Helmer resigned from Erie, ran an update titled, "We did it! Helmer has been fired" – was asked why she had felt it important to start the petition. None of the women responded.

Maybe they want to put whatever happened with Helmer behind them. Several had moved on to different museums. At least one had gotten married and become a mother. Perhaps they did not want to revisit a painful chapter in their lives that, by speaking with the Times, had been at least partially relieved. 

RCI also emailed Small, asking why they had gone so hard in their initial email to Helmer. They did not respond. A Times spokeswoman did, saying, "We publish what is newsworthy and what we are able to confirm."

Art World Reckoning

Looking back to 2020, Jeff Martin, the Museum Confidential podcast host and director of communications for the Philbrook Museum in Tulsa, Oklahoma, saw a giant hunger for change, a reckoning on both sex and race, in a museum industry run mostly by white men.  

"You could see that many institutions were pushing for more representation," he told RCI. "If you're looking to kind of leverage a moment, sometimes you get caught up in it... If you see something that can lift you six inches higher to the top of the fence you're trying to climb, you're probably going to step on that thing."

As for Helmer specifically, Martin had not heard of him before the Times pieces. He did know more about PMA's recent controversy, having been at a conference of museum professionals in Philadelphia on Nov. 4, 2025, when the firing of PMA CEO Sasha Suda was announced.

"Everybody's phone starts going off like some weird scene from a movie," Martin said, a firing at first attributed to disappointment with Suda's recent changing of the museum's nickname from PhAM to PhArt – a rebranding people understandably had a field day with – and later to accusations that Suda had given herself unauthorized raises. As the story moved into the courts and was dutifully reported, including in the Times, the character that is Joshua Helmer was called back into action.

"What they're talking about is not me. But then in the public, it is me," said Helmer. "They've made up Josh Helmer, actually, because there's no dimensionality to it at all."

A ‘Zipper Problem’

It was mid-December 2025. Helmer had just turned 37. Tall and lanky, with cropped dark hair, he had the politician’s habit of repeating your name in conversation. In the living room of the home he shares with his partner, a teacher, and her four school-age children, he explained he did not currently have a job, nor had he looked for one in the museum world.

"Honestly, I was done. I knew I was done. 'Radioactive' is the term," he said. He had read the Jon Ronson book, "So You've Been Publicly Shamed," and sensed, from Ronson's reporting and from what Helmer could see from the many MeToo cases in the news, that neither defending himself nor apologizing would have anything but a negative effect. 

"I am struggling sometimes to find what it is I am being accused of," he said. "I definitely dated a couple of them simultaneously. Not cool. Got that. If I hurt your feelings, you got me. But it turned into this thing of sexual predator, and even when I read that [Times] article, I can't find it."

Helmer said he was fortunate to have invested well and thus did not need a job. "I'm a house husband now," he said, mentioning that he did most of the cooking for the family and grew much of their produce in a massive garden. "I also taught myself how to make wood furniture by hand."

He'd also had a lot of time to reflect. Having signed a non-disclosure agreement when he left PMA, he could not reveal the reasons for his departure, other than he'd perhaps been overambitious. One of his accusers told the Times he had told her he would one day be the head of the museum, and maybe he had said that. He had started climbing the ladder at PMA at 24 and moved fast.

He also moved fast with women, of whom there was never a shortage. The staff at American museums skews on average 60/40 female, with new interns and grant recipients coming in by the season. During Helmer's time at PMA, nearly all these new employees were in their 20s and excited to be working at one of the best museums in the country. Mentioning several times that every one of the PMA colleagues he fooled around with was "very interesting, very smart, very cool," he also seemed tickled at the suggestion that he had a zipper problem. 

"I did, I had a zipper problem," he said. "I had a lot of girlfriends. Lots of girlfriends."

Still, he did not think his sleeping around was the main driver of the campaign that took him down. “I thought it was about the union,” he said. “They were having trouble drumming up the support they needed. They needed reasons to say, ‘Our workplace isn't safe.’” The lack of a statement as to why he'd left the museum was perhaps too good a moment to pass up, for a union organizer to rally support, for an eager reporter to further make their bones. Many things can swim into opportunity.

While several of Helmer's former girlfriends told the Times positive things about him – and in person he seemed effortlessly at ease, someone who could make you feel fully seen when he put you in his high-beams – the lasting picture was of a man who only saw you when it suited him, someone who spoke to a former NFL cheerleader in a way that made her feel very uncomfortable, a woman Helmer says he has no recollection of meeting. 

When this article came out, I called the PMA and was like, ‘Who is Alicia Parks?’” he said. “I'd love to know what I said to her.”

Helmer said he was ready to take “full accountability” for what happened. “I shouldn't have done what I did... mixing business and personal, dating multiple people at the same time,” he said. Still, he would prefer that anytime his name is Googled, the first hits are not always about his alleged mistreatment of women. “I have been vanquished. I am enjoying my exile in the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania,” he said. “Leave me alone.” 

Nevertheless, Helmer said there is one piece of unfinished business. “I just want a retraction that [the Times article] was in a clearly false light in a hundred ways,” he said. “I’ll never go back to my job. I'll never go back to that life. I just want a retraction, and I'll hang it in the kitchen.”

The spotless kitchen, which, six years after his last paying gig, he repaired and unwrapped a slab of homemade spinach pasta dough.

It's like I'm a Frankenstein, but not a Frankenstein,” he said, rolling the dough with a controlled intensity. “I mean, there are so many times that I had to sit at home and be like, am I a monster?”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 20:35

US Asian Ally Rejects Pentagon Request To Land Fighter Jets: More To Come?

Zero Hedge -

US Asian Ally Rejects Pentagon Request To Land Fighter Jets: More To Come?

Sri Lanka is a US regional ally, and America remains the small south Asian nation's largest export market, accounting for nearly $3 billion of the $11.7 billion of goods Sri Lanka exports annually.

But tensions are soaring over the Iran war, and especially in the wake of a US submarine having torpedoed the Iranian warship IRIS Dena just off Sri Lanka's southern coast earlier this month - killing dozens of sailors and forcing Sri Lankan authorities into a rescue operation that recovered bodies and pulled survivors from the water.

And now, the country's president Anura Kumara Dissanayake has revealed he previously formally rejected a request from Washington to allow two US fighter jets to land at Mattala International Airport.

USAF

According to Al Jazeera, "Speaking in parliament, Dissanayake said Colombo received separate requests on February 26 – one from Iran seeking permission for three naval vessels to make a goodwill visit, and another from the US requesting landing clearance for two fighter aircraft stationed near Djibouti to land at Mattala international airport."

This was mere days prior to the start of Operation Epic Fury, in the immediate run-up to the US and Israeli bombardment of Iran. "With two requests before us, the decision was clear," he said, emphasizing the move as part of national neutrality on the Iran issue. 

But the president also revealed the government had rejected Iranian request for naval access just days before the war erupted.

"With two requests before us, the decision was clear," he told parliament, while explaining Sri Lanka's intent to stay out of the foreign war.

The US State Department has tallied that "U.S. assistance to Sri Lanka has totaled more than $2 billion since Sri Lanka’s independence in 1948." With all of this past aid, it's possible the Trump administration will be reassessing.

According to further background from the NY Times:

Under normal circumstances, the American request would not have been unusual. Sri Lanka and the United States have had military ties for decades, and the island nation is strategically important for U.S. goals in the Indo-Pacific region.

Sri Lanka and the United States have cooperated on supply and logistics involving military equipment in the past, said Prasad Kariyawasam, a former secretary of the foreign ministry. U.S. aircraft have used Sri Lankan airports to drop off and pick up war-related equipment several times in the past, “but that’s not if a war is going on,” Mr. Kariyawasam said.

The war stands to get more unpopular internationally, especially as global energy markets get disrupted, raising the possibility that more and more US allies could start closing their aviation hubs and air bases for American military plane landings or usage, or the same with port facilities. In Europe, Spain has already done this.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 20:10

The Super Bowl Top Signal

Zero Hedge -

The Super Bowl Top Signal

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

You’ve likely heard about peaks in markets often coinciding with magazine covers saying the opposite.

Well, this is simply a representation of zeitgeist.

Another representation of zeitgeist is advertising at the Super Bowl. For long-time readers, you may recall our selling Bitcoin way back before it nosedived. We highlighted that at the time there were crypto ads running wild at the Super Bowl. We even had Matt Damon shilling crypto. Remember that? Fun times.

Well, you know what dominated this year’s Super Bowl? AI. It was in fact the single largest concentration of AI advertising in television history. Ain’t that something.

16 tech companies bought Super Bowl ads: OpenAI, Google, Amazon, Meta, Anthropic, Genspark, Base44, Rippling, Ramp — and more.

Tech ad spending is double what it was during the 2022 “Crypto Bowl.”

And here we are again. Just with AI.

2000: The Dot-Com Bowl. 14 internet startups bought Super Bowl ads at $2.2 million per spot. Pets.com spent $1.2 million on that ridiculous but now-famous sock puppet commercial. Ten months later it joined Elvis. The stock went from $11 to zero. Eight of the 11 startups that advertised were bankrupt or sold for cents on the dollar within a year.

2022: The Crypto Bowl. FTX, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and eToro collectively spent $54 million on Super Bowl ads. Nine months later, FTX was bankrupt and Coinbase shares fell 70% within a year. By the time the next Super Bowl rolled around, crypto had zero representation.

So maybe this time is different. Maybe all these AI-related stocks — many of which are unprofitable, just like crypto and dotcoms — defy gravity and continue powering ahead. It is possible. But I would say improbable… despite the market thinking it not only possible but assured. And that is exactly why we have our hedge against a Nasdaq fall safely secured.

When Revolutionary Tech Needs a Marketing Budget

Alphabet is looking to issue a 100-year bond.

The last time this happened was Motorola in 1997 — the last year Motorola was considered a big deal.

At the start of 1997, Motorola was a top-25 market cap and top-25 revenue corporation in America. Never again! The Motorola corporate brand in 1997 was ranked #1 in the US, ahead of Microsoft. In 1998, Nokia overtook Motorola in mobile phones, and after the iPhone it fell out of the consumer eye entirely. Today Motorola is the 232nd-largest market cap with only $11 billion in sales.

Remember when Austria issued a 100-year sovereign bond? That pretty much bottom-ticked the bond market. But wait… there’s more.

Big Tech is dropping $700 billion on AI this year. Their cash flow? Circling the drain.

Amazon’s going into debt. Google’s free cash flow is cratering 90%. And they’re paying influencers $600K each to convince you AI is worth using. Nothing screams “revolutionary technology” quite like needing half a million per creator to sell it.

Then there’s the earnings carnage…

All four giants reported earnings at once, and Wall Street had a meltdown:

  • Amazon: $200 billion capex (largest in history). Stock: -9%. Free cash flow: -71%.

  • Google: $185 billion spend (vs. $120 billion expected). Stock: -5%. Free cash flow: headed to $8 billion from $73 billion.

  • Meta: $135 billion (double last year).

  • Microsoft: -17% this year, worst in the group.

Combined 2026 spend is projected to hit $700 billion. Morgan Stanley projects Amazon will burn $17 billion in negative free cash flow. BofA says maybe $28 billion. Amazon quietly filed with the SEC about needing to raise debt to keep building. Google already did a $25 billion bond sale. Their long-term debt quadrupled last year. They’re spending everything they have, borrowing more, then spending that too.

Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta are paying influencers $400K–$600K each to promote AI on Instagram and YouTube. AI platforms spent $1 billion on digital ads in 2025 — up 126%. Google and Microsoft’s AI ad spending: +495% in January alone. Anthropic’s running Super Bowl ads. OpenAI’s flying creators to private events.

When was the last time truly revolutionary tech needed a billion-dollar ad campaign?

Did the iPhone need influencer deals? Did Google Search need Super Bowl ads in 1998? Did email need this? No. People just used them.

You know what does need massive paid promotions? Pharma drugs. Crypto exchanges. Online gambling. MLM schemes. Products where adoption is hype, not utility. And now, apparently, AI.

“This will eliminate your job. Also please use it. Here’s $600K to tell your followers it’s cool.”

They need humans to sell a product designed to replace humans. They need creators to promote tech that makes creators obsolete. They need influencers to build trust in a system that eliminates influencer marketing.

Here’s a question: if $700 billion per year can’t produce a product that sells itself, when exactly does this make money?

$700 billion in spending, cash flow collapsing, stocks tanking, SEC filings about raising capital — and the best growth strategy is paying TikTokers to demo features.

Either AI is about to deliver the greatest economic transformation in human history (and they need influencers to convince you this)… or we’re watching the most expensive corporate Hail Mary ever thrown.

Look, I’ve no doubt that AI has its uses. We use it for research purposes amongst other things, and I think most people are now using it. That isn’t the point. There exists a mismatch between what we’re being told and what is actually happening. There is also a massive mismatch when it comes to the valuations ascribed to the related companies and their actual profitability.

*  *  *

The point is simple: when hype outruns reality, investors need to step back and look at the bigger forces driving markets.  We put together a free PDF report that does exactly that, breaking down the economic, political, and cultural shifts unfolding now, the risks they create for your money and freedom, and how thoughtful investors can stay one step ahead. You can get your free copy here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 19:45

Murphy: "If The Dollar Starts Sinking, It's Gonna Be Fast"

Zero Hedge -

Murphy: "If The Dollar Starts Sinking, It's Gonna Be Fast"

Last night’s debate on “Deficits, War, and Markets”  brought together Bob Murphy of the Mises Institute and Bard College professor Randall Wray for a clash between Austrian and MMT worldviews, moderated by the “Macro Tourist” Kevin Muir. 

Exploding U.S. deficits, the Fed’s policy path, the geopolitical shock of the Iran war, what it means for stocks, a potential bond market snap to calls for another financial crisis… we covered a lot of ground and here were some highlights for those short on time:

Where are the bond vigilantes?

A bond trader himself, Muir asked Murphy what it would take to see a crisis-level spike in U.S. Treasury yields. Murphy’s core point is that the conditions for a bond market revolt have already been in place for years—and yet the revolt hasn’t come.

“If you had 15 years ago told me this is what the fiscal position is going to be [$39 trillion in debt]… I would say… there’d be this massive [yield] premium,” he said. “I am surprised at how much leeway investors are giving the US federal government.” But the fact that we’ve made it this far without emerging market-esque bond yields should not comfort USD holders.

Global demand for Treasuries may be eroding at the margin, and the dollar-based world order may unravel quicker than it was established. “There’s lots of countries… saying we need to reduce our exposure to the US dollar… they’re just trying to figure out how.,” Murphy said, particularly in reference to Russia where previous American administrations went trigger happy with sanctions and freezing of foreign dollar reserves. Actions that greatly enhance the risk premium of holding dollar-denominated assets if you’re a foreign government or even a foreign national whose country may one day be on the naughty list.

“If the dollar starts sinking, it’s gonna be fast”

Even the Keynesian thinks a crash is coming…

Self-identifying as a Keynesian economist, Wray nonetheless thinks we can’t maneuver our way out of the coming crash.

Wray’s warning: the system never actually fixed the conditions that led to the last crisis — it consolidated and amplified them. “We wouldn’t have these huge institutions that are… engaged in crazy finance and setting us up for another tremendous financial crash,” he said, if instead after 2008, we’d employed something more akin to Teddy Roosevelt and disintegrated rather than bailed out the big banks. 

“The banks all over the country weren't doing any of the stuff,” Wray argued. “The biggest banks were doing that and got us into trouble.”

“We’re going to have [another crash]… it could be five years… but it’s coming. There’s no doubt at all.” 

Watch the full discussion below or listen on Spotify:

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 19:20

Qatar Dethroned As 'LNG King' As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

Zero Hedge -

Qatar Dethroned As 'LNG King' As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

Submitted by Criterion Research President, James Bevan

The geopolitical calculus underpinning global LNG supply through the early 2030s has shifted materially. Iranian drone strikes on Qatari LNG trains, delays to key expansion projects, and the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a compounding threat to Qatar's LNG position that goes well beyond a construction delay. What had been framed as a two-horse race for global LNG market share now looks considerably more one-sided. The beneficiary is clear: U.S. Gulf Coast LNG. 

At Criterion Research, our outlook is for US LNG exports to nearly double by 2030, with further upside in the coming decade.

Qatar's Gap Is Large and Getting Larger

While Qatar’s loss of 12.8 MTPA for 3 to 5 years due to Iranian strikes is a serious blow to Qatar’s 77 MTPA export capacity, it is not a global catastrophe on its own. What is worrying is that Iran has demonstrated the potential for further strikes, which means that even restored capacity cannot be treated as a stable floor. Even if onshore facilities are repaired and the Strait is nominally reopened, LNG tanker operators and their insurers are unlikely to resume normal transits until they have, over time, earned confidence that vessels are not exposed to strikes or mines. That confidence cannot be declared by a government. It has to be proven through sustained safety in a conflict environment with no clear resolution, a process that could take months or years, regardless of the physical state of Qatar's terminals. Molecules that cannot move to market are effectively stranded, and the Strait of Hormuz shipping constraint is the piece that is hardest to resolve through engineering or diplomacy alone.

Beyond current Qatari volumes being impacted, Qatar's three-phase North Field expansion program, encompassing NFE, NFS, and North Field West, was designed to lift total liquefaction capacity from 77 MTPA to 142 MTPA by 2030. Global LNG demand was counting on these volumes. All three phases now face indefinite delays, with no official revised timeline and no near-term path to resuming offshore construction. NFE’s first train had already slipped to a 3Q26 start before the suspension, and rumors say it was pushed to 2027 before strikes began. 

Taken together, disruption to the existing base and delay of the full expansion program represent a potential swing of well over 100 MTPA relative to what the market had been counting on through the early 2030s. No other supply source can replace that on a compressed timeline. 

The U.S. Fills the Void

The U.S. project queue was already moving aggressively before Qatar's situation deteriorated. According to our data at Criterion Research, Golden Pass LNG is in active commissioning, CP2 Phase 1, Port Arthur, and Rio Grande LNG are all on track for first production in 2027, following, and CP2 Phase 2 reached FID. Post-FID US projects alone are expected to reach 39 Bcf/d by 2033. While the US cannot make up for the lost Qatari volumes before 2030, there is a strong pipeline of pre-FID projects for early 2030 and beyond that may now be pushed over the edge by new customer demand replacing Qatari volumes.

The Demand Caveat

The bull case is real but not unconditional. Whether demand materializes at the volumes required to absorb the full U.S. buildout depends heavily on price, and the infrastructure required to convert price-sensitive demand into actual imports remains well behind schedule. Across South Asia and Southeast Asia, the buildout of regasification terminals and downstream gas distribution that was supposed to undergird the bullish demand case for the 2030s has been repeatedly delayed by a combination of high prices, fiscal constraints, and the improving economics of competing renewable alternatives. The regas infrastructure that is not built in the late 2020s cannot absorb volumes in the early 2030s, and that pipeline of delayed or canceled projects represents a real ceiling on how quickly emerging-market demand can respond, even if prices fall to attractive levels. Paradoxically, a supply shock of this magnitude could push prices high enough to further delay that infrastructure buildout, suppressing the very demand growth that would otherwise absorb U.S. volumes. The structural demand from Europe and Northeast Asia, anchored by long-term contracts and supply security mandates, is likely to hold regardless. But the incremental emerging-market demand that was supposed to keep the market balanced through the mid-2030s now appears considerably more uncertain than the pre-conflict consensus assumed. 

The Structural Conclusion

Seldom has a supply disruption of this magnitude aligned so cleanly with a competing exporter's buildout window. The U.S. has a well-financed project pipeline, while its most capable competitor is facing key expansion delays, operational damage, and a shipping constraint that may outlast both. LNG dominance for U.S. LNG looks increasingly certain. Whether that translates into strong project economics across the board depends on which demand pools ultimately clear, and at what price.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 18:55

Milei's "Miracle" Faces First Cracks As Argentina's Unemployment Rises

Zero Hedge -

Milei's "Miracle" Faces First Cracks As Argentina's Unemployment Rises

Argentina’s much-touted turnaround under Javier Milei may be losing momentum, with fresh labor data pointing to a weakening jobs market, according to Bloomberg.

By the end of last year, unemployment had climbed to 7.5%—the highest rate for a fourth quarter since the Covid era—reflecting a deterioration in employment conditions before the government pushed through its landmark labor overhaul.

New figures show that joblessness in the formal sector increased for the first time in three quarters, while the share of workers in informal roles remained largely unchanged at roughly 43% of total employment.

Bloomberg writes that since Milei took office, Argentina’s formal private sector has shed more than 200,000 salaried positions—around 3% of its workforce.

Although the government has also eliminated thousands of public-sector jobs, the overall unemployment rate hasn’t surged as sharply as expected, partly because more people have turned to freelance or informal work to make ends meet.

In February, Milei secured a major political win when Congress approved a scaled-back version of his labor reform, designed to reduce hiring and firing costs and introduce broader flexibility into the labor market. Investors welcomed the move, but economists caution that it is unlikely to deliver immediate job growth.

With economic activity sluggish, consumer demand still weak, and labor-intensive sectors under pressure as the economy opens up, any employment recovery may take time to materialize.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 18:30

Fear Of The Second Wave

Zero Hedge -

Fear Of The Second Wave

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

This time last year, it seemed like we were just about finished with the terrible inflation of the Biden years that had trimmed at least 25 percent from the purchasing power of the dollar.

The hope has been for a year that the massive increases in money printing over the COVID years were finally done. As some put it, the snake had finally digested the golf ball.

All along we’ve worried that the experience of the 1970s would repeat: three clean waves.

After each, monetary authorities presumed that the problem was over and that life could go on as normal.

Each time, inflation fired back up again, until it culminated in an inflation of the late seventies that changed life in America fundamentally.

After that, two household incomes were more common than not, if only to maintain living standards.

We could only hope that we would not repeat that experience. Indeed, history does not repeat but it does rhyme. Authorities tend to relax in vigilance once a crisis seems to have abated.

The 2021–2024 inflation was devastating for real wages and salaries. Official data reports that they have been mostly flat and then somewhat rising. Maybe, but I personally cannot think of anyone who earned raises that have kept up with inflation over four years. That’s anecdotal, to be sure, but you are welcome to check my intuition against your experience.

We don’t seem to see moves today from the Federal Reserve that would suggest a concerted effort in the direction of easing. Money supply has not taken off and the Fed is holding interest rates rather tight for fear of igniting inflation.

It appears that the existing pricing pressures stem not from monetary sources but supply shocks. Of all the changes in goods prices that could impose the largest shock to the general economy worldwide, oil ranks near the top. Is that happening? Yes. Not only that: price trends were not heading the right way even before the war shock.

There is really bad news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It concerns the Producer Price Index, which registers wholesale prices in a range of goods and services. It is generally more reliable than the index for consumer prices because prices are more uniform and accessible. What the PPI does today shows up in consumer prices in a matter of months, depending.

The latest PPI print covering the month of February is sobering. The index for final demand rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 3.4 percent in February 2025. That is double the forecasted increase. The most eye-popping number concerns prices for final demand goods. They increased 1.1 percent for the month.

Annualize the number and you get an incredible 13.6 percent, the hottest in more than 3 years. This is double-digit, which itself gets us into a strange psychological place. It kicks off panic buying and hoarding.

A longer-term look, again from February before the oil price spikes, shows the worst annual rate of change in goods prices in two years. This will feed into consumer prices through the summer, even if the crisis ends now.

That’s a number roughly equivalent to 1979-level inflation. So far it is only hitting wholesale prices but those are passed on to the retail level. And keep in mind that these February numbers were assembled before the Iran war throttled shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a huge price spike in oil that quickly folded into a gas price increase that you likely know all too well.

The oil price spike has profoundly affected people the world over. We are looking at nearly a doubling of the price since the war began. And the problem is getting worse, not better.

Gasoline is rising now at a pace not seen in more than 30 years. It also seems to be accelerating. My back of the envelope calculation over the last four years suggests it is rising 2 cents per hour.

This isn’t just about the ways this price affects your driving. It hits every form of transportation from trains to planes to trucks. Tickets are already soaring in price but this also bleeds into goods prices at the stores, especially food. Anything that travels to retail outlets by truck is being hit hard now, as you already see in the rising cost of coffee.

None of these are good signs.

Yes, it could all flip the other direction if the war ends today but it will be months before prices settle down again even under the best of circumstances.

Now let’s turn to real-time numbers as calculated by Truflation. It’s become very apparent that the good trends have already reversed in the other direction. From a low of 0.6 percent, we are now running 1.51 percent. More telling is the real-time number on good inflation. That is running 3.4 percent, the highest in 3 years.

At this point, there is no avoiding the results of the inflation that already exists.

How likely is a full blown energy crisis of the sort we saw in the 1970s? As we should all realize, that crisis was not only one of prices. It was the attempt to keep the price low with forced caps that caused the widespread shortages and gas lines. There is no question that this would happen again should the Trump administration pursue price controls on gasoline.

In 1971, Richard Nixon imposed wage and price controls. He did not want to do that. He never imagined conditions would ever arrive in which he would push that button. But for him, it was a necessary expedient, the least bad of all possible choices. Moreover, he knew that it would not work but believed that the public needed to see him doing something to show that he cared and was acting on the problem. Trump might be drawn into something similar.

One hopes that the Trump administration would not do that. But one cannot know for sure, sadly. It is the nature of any government to panic with falling poll numbers, parabolically rising energy prices, and a profound sense of a loss of control. All these factors are happening right now.

I never watch mainstream media but a couple of days ago, I caught a broadcast on television that had nonstop messaging about gas prices. This is for obvious reasons related to politics but there is also something real going on here. For all the tax and regulatory cuts in the second Trump administration, the inflation pressures threaten to wipe out any and all income gains. Indeed, this inflation puts the entire second term at risk in ways the White House surely understands by now.

Again, the cause of the price increases are a combination of factors but this one, unlike the last one, seems to be pushed by a supply shock rather than monetary factors. In a practical sense, for businesses and consumers, the impact is the same. It means that money buys less and that balance sheets are put under extreme pressure.

I’m sorry for the bad news and I try to avoid apocalypticism. Wishes aside, and regardless of one’s views of this Iran war, the reality is before us and it is undeniable.

We could be seeing a second wave of effective inflation kicking off that will create some serious economic disruption in all directions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 18:05

EV Demand Surges Across Asia After Energy Shock Sends Consumers Into Panic Mode

Zero Hedge -

EV Demand Surges Across Asia After Energy Shock Sends Consumers Into Panic Mode

One of the biggest takeaways in global energy markets this week is the growing fragmentation. Brent crude in Asia has surged to over $150 a barrel, with demand destruction already emerging, and China and India facing the greatest pressure given their heavy reliance on Gulf crude. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has moved to release barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help cap WTI prices below triple digits, with US crude currently trading around $94 a barrel.

The Iran-driven energy shock is hitting Asia the hardest so far because much of its crude and LNG is imported and shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

Current status of the Hormuz chokepoint...

"The countries that are exposed to that supply disruption are not so much in Europe, or in the Americas, they're actually really in the Asia region," Michael Williamson of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific told AP News.

The energy shock across Asia has had cascading effects on economic activity throughout the region. One behavioral shift among those who can afford to move away from petrol-powered vehicles has been a surge in activity at Chinese EV maker BYD Motors.

Bloomberg reports that BYD dealerships in the Philippines have already logged a full month's worth of orders in just two weeks as consumers react to the energy price shock and the cost of filling up gas tanks.

Vietnam's VinFast automotive company has seen 4x showroom traffic and is selling about 80 EVs per week, about double 2025 levels, following the surge in energy prices. Across Thailand, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, dealers report sales increases of 20% or more and even inventory shortages.

What's key here is that a rapid surge in gasoline and diesel prices across Asia has accelerated EV adoption in recent weeks, and if the crisis persists, adoption rates are only set to increase in the weeks and months ahead.

"Higher oil prices always help the transition to electric vehicles," said Albert Park, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank. "It creates economic incentives to accelerate the green transition."

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanna Chen noted that one headwind for the EV market has always been "affordability and charging." She added, "Outside of China, the upfront price of EVs is still generally more expensive than gasoline cars."

The energy price shock is a welcome sign for the auto industry around the world, which made a terrible bet on EVs over the last year, as increased demand can help offload inventory into fearful consumers who have been forewarned about what may be the largest energy shock to hit the modern economy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 17:40

What 122 Universal Basic Income Experiments Actually Show

Zero Hedge -

What 122 Universal Basic Income Experiments Actually Show

Authroed by Vance Ginn via the Daily Economy,

Artificial intelligence has become the latest excuse for reviving one of the oldest bad ideas in economic policy: a universal basic income. Recent pieces in Newsweek, the LSE Business Review, and Fortune have all helped push the idea that AI may soon wipe out so many jobs that Washington will need to send everyone a check.

Image Credit: Shutterstock

That makes for a catchy headline. It also makes for terrible economics.

The right question is not whether AI will disrupt work. Of course it will. The right question is this: after more than 100 local guaranteed-income experiments, what have we actually learned?

The answer is much less flattering to UBI than its promoters would like.

What 122 UBI-Style Pilots Show

A new AEI working paper by Kevin Corinth and Hannah Mayhew gives the best recent overview of the evidence. Per their study, there were 122 guaranteed basic income pilots across 33 states and the District of Columbia between 2017 and 2025. Those pilots allocated about $481.4 million in transfers to 40,921 recipients, with 61,664 total participants including control groups. The average recipient got about $11,765, the average pilot lasted 18.4 months, and the average monthly payment was $616.

That sounds like a mountain of evidence. It is not.

Of those 122 pilots, only 52 had published outcomes. Only 35 used randomized designs. Only 30 reported employment outcomes. So the case for UBI is not being built on some giant pile of clear, clean evidence. It is being built on a much smaller stack of studies, many of them weak, limited, or badly timed.

And here is the kicker. Among the 30 randomized pilots with published employment results, the average effect was a 0.8 percentage-point increase in employment. UBI fans will rush to wave that around. They should slow down.

AEI shows that the bigger and more credible studies tell a very different story. Among the four pilots with treatment groups of at least 500 participants, which together account for 55 percent of all treatment-group participants, the mean effect on employment was minus 3.2 percentage points. AEI also estimates a mean income elasticity of -0.18, which is consistent with standard labor-supply economics. 

In plain English, when people receive more unearned income, work tends to fall at the margin. Shocking, I know. Economics still works.

Credit: American Enterprise Institute Why the Evidence Is Weaker Than the Hype

The AEI paper is useful not just for what it finds, but for how bluntly it describes the weaknesses in the evidence.

The average treatment group among those 30 studies was just 359 people, and the median was only 151. That is not exactly ironclad evidence for redesigning the American welfare state. Among the 26 pilots for which attrition could be measured, the average attrition rate was 37 percent. That is a giant warning sign. If enough people drop out, the reported results can become badly distorted.

The studies also varied widely in payment size, duration, sample composition, and even how outcomes were measured. The mean annualized payment was $7,177, equal to an average income boost of about 39.5 percent relative to baseline household income in the studies. Some pilots relied heavily on self-reported survey data. Some were conducted during or right after the COVID period — when labor markets, safety-net programs, and personal decisions were anything but normal.

AEI’s conclusion is appropriately cautious: these findings may not generalize to a permanent, universal, nationwide UBI under current or future conditions. That alone should cool off a lot of the AI-fueled policy hysteria.

AI Will Displace Jobs. It Will Also Create Them

None of this means AI will be painless. Some jobs will shrink. Some tasks will disappear. Some workers will need to retrain, relocate, or rethink their careers. That is what happens when productivity rises and technology changes how goods and services are produced. It happened with mechanization, with computers, and with the internet. It will happen with AI.

But displacement is not the same thing as permanent mass unemployment. That leap is where the UBI argument falls apart. Economies are not fixed piles of jobs. They are dynamic systems of discovery, adaptation, and exchange. When costs fall and productivity rises, resources move. Businesses reorganize. Consumer demand changes. New occupations emerge. Old ones evolve. Some disappear. That churn is real, but so is the adaptation.

The answer to technological change is not to pay people for economic resignation. The answer is to make adaptation easier.

UBI Fails the Economics Test

There is a reason Ryan Bourne at Cato has argued that UBI is not the answer if AI comes for your job. It confuses a transition problem with a permanent income problem. Worse, it assumes that writing checks can substitute for the incentives, signals, and institutional conditions that actually create opportunity.

UBI also crashes into the budget constraint. As Max Gulker at The Daily Economy has noted, UBI is often sold through small pilots and vague moral language, but the national arithmetic is ugly. And as Robert Wright in another AIER piece points out, “universal” quickly means sending money to many people who are not poor while piling enormous costs onto taxpayers. (Bear in mind, the national debt is already rapidly approaching $40 trillion.) 

That is before getting to the public-choice problem. In theory, UBI supporters sometimes imagine replacing the welfare state with one simple cash transfer. In reality, government programs rarely disappear. Bureaucracies defend themselves. Interest groups protect carveouts. Politicians promise more, not less. So a UBI would likely be stacked on top of much of the current welfare state, not substituted for it. That is not reform. That is fiscal delusion with better branding.

A Better Answer: Remove Barriers to Work

If AI means more labor-market churn, then policy should focus on mobility, flexibility, and self-sufficiency. That means less occupational licensing, lower taxes, lighter regulation, fewer benefit cliffs, less wasteful spending, and more room for entrepreneurship and job creation. The government should stop making it harder for people to pivot.

It also means reforming welfare the right way. My proposal for empowerment accounts is not a UBI. It would be targeted to people already eligible for welfare, not universal. It would include a work requirement for work-capable adults, not detach income from effort. And it would consolidate fragmented programs into a more flexible account that families control directly, reducing bureaucracy and lowering spending over time as more recipients move toward self-sufficiency.

That puts it much closer to the classical liberal insight behind replacing bureaucratic control with direct support, while avoiding the fatal error of turning the entire country into a permanent transfer state. As Art Carden reminds us at The Daily Economy, there is a long intellectual history behind cash-based assistance. But today’s UBI politics are not really about shrinking the state. They are mostly about expanding it because elites fear AI.

Don’t Make Bad Policy Out of Fear

The UBI revival tells us less about AI than it does about politics. New technology arrives, uncertainty rises, and too many policymakers reach for the federal checkbook as if it were a magic wand. It is not.

After 122 local experiments, the case for UBI is still weak. The best evidence does not show a jobs renaissance. The larger studies show employment declines. The broader evidence base is riddled with small sample sizes, high attrition, and limited generalizability. That is a flimsy foundation for a permanent national entitlement.

AI will change work. It will not repeal economics. The best response is not fear-driven universal dependency. It is a freer economy with stronger incentives to work, save, invest, adapt, and prosper.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 17:15

Legendary Midwest Fast-Food Icon Spirals Into Bankruptcy

Zero Hedge -

Legendary Midwest Fast-Food Icon Spirals Into Bankruptcy

Another fast-food institution is fighting for its life as Byron’s Kitchen files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection amid a brutal wave of restaurant closures and restructurings sweeping the food industry, according to The Street.

The Chicago-based chain, a beloved local staple since 1975 and now marking over 50 years of slinging dogs, officially sought bankruptcy relief on March 16 in the Northern District of Illinois. Owner Mike Payne and the team behind Byron’s Kitchen Incorporated are using the filing to restructure crushing financial obligations while keeping the grills firing at their two remaining locations.

“As of 2025, the company maintains active operations at two primary locations situated at 1701 W. Lawrence Ave and 1017 W. Irving Park Rd," RK Consulting reported on X.

The chain even recently poured money into upgrades like new indoor heated seating, a clear sign they’re betting on survival rather than surrender.

“Byron’s goes a step further than [the] classic Chicago style hot dog where you have mustard, relish, tomato, onion, pickle, hot peppers, and celery salt,” Payne said of Byron’s. “We take it a few steps further with lettuce, cucumber, and green peppers to the classic ingredients of the Chicago-style hot dog, and that’s how we came up with the Byron’s hot dog. We call it a meal on a bun.”

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Yucking (@yuckingitup)

The filing comes against a grim backdrop of big-name fast-food chains slashing locations left and right this year.

Wendy’s is gearing up to shutter 298–358 U.S. locations in the first half of the year alone after sales slipped, while Pizza Hut plans to close around 250 underperformers. Further more, Papa John’s is targeting roughly 200 locations this year as part of a broader cull.

Restaurants that exist today may not exist in five years. They’ll be off the map,” bankruptcy attorney Daniel Gielchinsky told Fox 4. Additionally, consumers will “see a lot of restaurants with a decreased footprint. Small restaurants and mom-and-pop restaurants are going under too."

*  *  * Click link, buy knife, save dog... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 16:50

"I Think We've Won" Trump Says As Iran Refuses Hormuz Talks, Houthis Threaten Red Sea Strait

Zero Hedge -

"I Think We've Won" Trump Says As Iran Refuses Hormuz Talks, Houthis Threaten Red Sea Strait Summary
  • CBS reporting 'heavy preparations' for ground troops as Trump says 'no ceasefire' for now; Trump calls NATO a 'paper tiger'; says "close to meeting our objectives", offramp?

  • IRGC contradicts Bibi: says missile production is ongoing, is of "no concern" - even as IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naeini is reported killed.

  • Energy war ongoing: Major sites damaged across the region - Haifa refinery hit, Qatar LNG output cut 17%, Kuwait facilities ablaze.

  • Kharg Island escalation looms: Trump admin weighing seizure of Kharg Island to reopen Hormuz; Thousands of Marines in route, reports of low US jet strafing runs over strait.

  • Signal of zero restraint from Ayatollah & FM: Iran sends warning if energy sites are hit again, leadership structure grows opaque; supreme leader says enemies will be denied security.

  • Chokepoint concerns in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb send Brent and WTI prices higher in late afternoon trading 

*  *  *

Trump: No Ceasefire, We've Won, 'Other Nations - Not US - Must Guard Strait'

More somewhat confusing rhetoric on Iran plans from Trump: He said late in the afternoon Friday US strikes on Iran are "weeks ahead of schedule" - but caveated that he expects oil prices to surge more than they have. He repeatedly emphasized that he does not want a ceasefire - "we’re not looking to do that" - while leaving the door open to dialogue, insisting talks don't necessarily require halting the fighting. He said all this while also proclaiming "I think we've won." He also expressed he thinks Israel will wind down the war when the US does.

Trump asserted further that Iran's military has been severely degraded, saying it has "no radar, spotters, aircraft" and that key leaders have been killed, concluding: "from a military standpoint Iran is finished" and "I think we’ve won." He also said Israel would be ready to end the war when the US does, noting both countries "want more or less similar things."

Late in the day Friday Trump followed his verbal comments to reporters with this:

Oil plunged immediately after the latest Trump statement went out:

"NATO could help us, but they so far haven’t had the courage to do so. And others could help us, but we don’t use it," he said. "At a certain point, it’ll open itself." Again, some confusing messaging to say the least...

"I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know, you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side," he said. "We’re not looking to do that."

Trump hinted at possible escalation options around Kharg Island—“I may have a plan or I may not”—while accusing Iran of "clogging up" Hormuz. He also continued to berate Tehran leadership as "thugs and animals" - and praised Secretary of State Marco Rubio for doing a "fantastic job." Meanwhile Iran too is saying it is not ready for ceasefire or dialogue (at least in its public statements), and has expressed intent on exacting revenge. All of this means: no offramp yet in sight amid fresh reports that 'heavy preparations' for ground forces are being planned: "Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran, multiple sources briefed on the discussions told CBS News." More from CBS: "Senior military commanders have submitted specific requests aimed at preparing for such an option as President Trump weighs moves in the U.S.-Israel-led conflict with Iran, the sources said."

Fearless, Greek-owned Panamax bulk carrier transits Hormuz Chockepoint 

The Liberia-flagged, 81,713-dwt bulk carrier Giacometti (IMO: 9615377) has become the first Greek-owned vessel to successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz with its Automatic Identification System active since March 2, according to maritime shipping news and intelligence outlet Lloyd's List.

The Panamax bulk carrier transited westbound into the Middle East Gulf and was the first vessel to do so since the Panama-flagged MLS Onyx (IMO: 9373618) on March 5. 

Still tanker flows remain mute at the end of the week. 

Iran Refuses Hormuz Talks As Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Chokepoint

Brent crude futures are above $110/bbl, and WTI futures are inching closer to triple-digit territory as traders fret over a weekend of chaos across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf area following this week's targeting of upstream energy assets.

The latest headline to hit is that Iran is unwilling to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint while under attack, according to Bloomberg News.

  • IRAN SAID TO STICK TO HARDLINE POSITION ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ

With one maritime chokepoint in focus, we shift our attention to another: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

A report from Russian media outlet RIA Novosti states that Yemen's Houthi rebels are considering blocking commercial shipping traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

RIA Novosti continued:

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis' political bureau, said that if the group were forced to close the strait, it would only attack vessels belonging to states that carry out aggression against Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq.

He noted that the movement is considering all possible scenarios to support Iran in its confrontation with the United States and Israel.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, serves as a vital corridor for global trade, particularly oil and gas shipments between Europe and Asia.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, accounts for about 10% to 12% of global trade and serves as a key route for energy shipments to Europe.

With Hormuz partially paralyzed, Saudi Arabia has shifted crude flows from the Hormuz area to the East-West pipeline and onward to Red Sea ports for loading onto tankers.

Yet another maritime chokepoint becoming clogged would expand the conflict area and could further send energy markets into a tailspin.

Trump Blasts 'Paper Tiger' NATO; Three More Warships Dispatched to Mideast

The President has again expressed his frustration at lack of direct NATO participation in a plan to open up the Strait of Hormuz. He declared the US has "militarily WON" - and lambasted lack of allied interest in a "simple military maneuver" to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, oil is rising on news of a second massive Marine deployment toward Gulf in a week, WSJ is reporting:

The Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, even as President Trump insists he won’t put American boots on the ground in Iran, according to U.S. officials.

Roughly 2,200 to 2,500 Marines from the California-based USS Boxer amphibious ready group and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the U.S. Central Command, responsible for all American forces in the Middle East, the officials said.

Crude Futures as WSJ headline hit...

IRGC Says Missile Production Intact, Contradicting Netanyahu 

On day 21, the Iran war shows no signs of abating. Iran’s IRGC spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naeini was reportedly killed in an Israeli overnight strike, another high-level hit as the decapitation campaign grinds on.

However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Friday that the Islamic republic has continued to produce missiles despite the war with Israel and the United States. This directly contradicts Israeli PM Netanyahu's assertions from the day prior, where he said both missile production capacity and uranium enrichment capability have been destroyed. Netanyahu had claimed, "Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium and manufacture ballistic missiles."

"Our missile industry deserves a perfect score...and there is no concern in this regard, because even under wartime conditions we continue missile production," IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini said according to Fars.

Energy Complexes From Gulf to Israel Burning; Casualties Mount

The energy war continues to be front and center. Israel confirmed major Thursday Iranian strikes hit its Haifa refining complex, damaging critical infrastructure, and leaving many in the area without power. Also, the attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility is expected to slash LNG export capacity by roughly 17%. Kuwait hasn't been spared either, with its massive Mina al-Ahmadi refinery hit for a second straight day, with fires ripping through processing units.

Elsewhere, Bahrain says it has faced over 140 missiles and 240 drones since the war began, underscoring the scale of Iran’s regional barrage. 

Across the region, escalation is bleeding into civilian life even in countries not directly part of the conflict. The biggest Muslim holiday of the year, Eid, is being celebrated, and in Iran the Persian New Year "Nowruz" is unfolding under air raid sirens, also with fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria. Currently Palestinians are being barred from Al-Aqsa during Eid. Casualties continue to mount with over 1,400 reported dead in Iran, including 204 children per the Red Crescent - and more than 1,000 killed in Lebanon.

Signs of US Plans to Take Kharg Island

But the real escalation risk surrounds what Washington's next move may be, as the Trump administration is actively weighing seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s key export hub, in a desperate effort to force Hormuz back open. One source put it bluntly to Axios: "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island, and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations." For all the bravado and rhetoric, some analysts see the situation as a classic escalation trap.

But the report says no final decision has been made, but the direction of travel is clear. "He wants Hormuz open… If he has to take Kharg Island… that’s going to happen," one senior official said, while acknowledging a coastal invasion remains on the table.

The Wall Street Journal in fresh reporting sees signs that an operation is already underway: "The U.S. and its allies have intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending low-flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast Iranian naval vessels and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran’s deadly drones, American military officials said." it writes.

via Telegram sputnik_africa Iran Vows 'Zero Restraint' If Its Energy Sites Attacked Again

Here's what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted to X on Thursday: "Our response to Israel's attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation. ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again. Any end to this war must address damage to our civilian sites."

And CNN reports Friday: "Mojtaba Khamenei, who has made no public appearance since being chosen to succeed his father, said in a written statement security must be denied to all Iran’s enemies."

Things are meanwhile getting more opaque in terms of leadership structure inside Iran: "Iran has not named replacements for the vast majority of senior officials killed by Israeli strikes since the conflict began on February 28," CNN reports.

Iran's strategy appears to be to survive while imposing severe high costs:

Intense Attacks on Israel Continue

There has remained heavy censorship in Israel amid the war, but various overnight reports suggested another past 12 hours of heavy Iranian missile bombardment of Israel. Times of Israel confirmed, though without much in the way of details that sirens have been constant around central and northern Israel.

There were at least half a dozen missile salvos on Israel since late last night. "A home in the central city of Rehovot is burning following an apparent cluster munition impact, rescue services say," TOI writes. "There are no immediate reports of injuries after Iran launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead at central Israel."

Flash90/TOI: The site of an Iranian missile impact in Rehovot, central Israel. 

One war observer who has regional contacts wrote on X the following account: "Israel has been pummeled all night. Based on my counts of alerts and reports of landings from open sources the number increased tonight, though there are no reports of casualties."

The journalist continues, "My Whatsapp groups are filled with people having breakdowns after not sleeping for two weeks. In Jerusalem 4 alerts were heard in a 90 minute span. Iran has been able to increase the number of launches daily. Everyone seems angry at the IDF and Netanyahu for lying about the destruction of Iranian capabilities."

*  *  * Click link, buy knife, save dog... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 16:30

And Then The World Changed...

Zero Hedge -

And Then The World Changed...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"Europe’s own regulatory architecture turned off Europe’s own energy supply. And America. . . on the other side of the Atlantic with a full tank of gas, watched it happen.”

- Jeff Childers

Let’s pause for a moment amid all the excitement to address an abiding mystery of these times: why does the news media seem to be rooting for American failure in the Iran operation? Or more generally, how did the media become handmaiden to the Lefty-left and all its ancillaries? How were they lured into their Cloward-Piven bunker of crypto-Marxian “resistance”?

It’s unlikely that the network executives, news producers, and editors are communists outright. That would take you into a simpleminded John Birch Society fantasyland. Or did they just read too much Antonio Gramsci on campus back in the day?

If they’re merely whores pandering to an audience, it’s a dwindling one as the Woke mass formation dissolves and the insanity of its agenda stands naked.

(Why not pander to the growing demographic that yearns for a restoration of normality?)

Is the news controlled by the so-called Deep State? Do cadres in the CIA send headlines to the Washington Post newsroom?

Many think so. I don’t pretend to know one way or the other.

The problem with lying, of course, is that you have to keep lying to protect your previous lies.

Does the rise of alt-news across the Internet provoke them to lie harder in the face of better narratives?

Or is it just plain old group-think, fear of stepping out-of-sync with tribal certainties and shibboleths?

Which is to say, are they merely cowards and cads?

Do they really believe in the totalizing bad faith of the Democratic Party in its naked racketeering and power-seeking?

That’s a sinking ship — the party that is now battling to obstruct simple straightforward election reform in the US Senate. Here’s a headline from today’s New York Times:

What will The New York Times do when bona fide, convincing evidence from material seized in recent FBI raids in Georgia and Arizona shows that recent elections were arrantly and knowingly rigged?

It’s going to happen, you know.

And if the procedural delays in the Senate drag out for weeks over the SAVE Act, the truth is likely to emerge while the bill is still in process, and will slam the whole country in the face, like thirty inches of re-bar.

Will the newspaper print an apology to its readers?

We’re in a season of whacking great change in global and national affairs.

“Epic Fury” in Iran will neutralize a regime dedicated to terrorizing the region and reorder the world’s energy flows to the disadvantage of America’s adversaries.

China will lose its deep discount on imported Iranian oil just as in Venezuela a month ago. It already lost control of the Panama Canal as well.

All its inroads around the western hemisphere have been nullified in this first year of Trump 2.0. China has to play nicer with America now.

The crisis has demonstrated that the US can’t depend on its NATO allies — who either refused to send ships to assist, or dawdled over it — which can allow the US to step away from the enormous expense that NATO imposes on us, and also from the tarbaby known as Ukraine. The truth is, we are ideologically more aligned with post-Soviet Russia than we are with France, Germany, and the UK under their current regimes. Ironically, the Russians, with Hungary, Poland, and the Czechs, are the last earnest defenders of Western Civ. Europe has apparently elected to go medieval, anyway. They like to pretend that they can maintain a high standard of living without oil or natgas, a formula so obdurately stupid that only the most awful hardship might avail to change their policies.

This month, the US leaped to create a maritime insurance alternative to Lloyd’s of London, meaning the UK banks can no longer impose a 20-percent cost premium on Persian Gulf oil, which thunders through the global system and affects everyone. We’ve already stepped away from the UN-backed international Net Zero carbon pricing scam on tanker and container ships.

The economics of oil are going through a quick and decisive readjustment.

With an end to Iran’s threats to world peace, the US can eventually leave policing of the Persian Gulf to the nations that depend on its oil (we do not).

Meanwhile, the US will continue pounding Iran until it can’t launch so much as a distress flare. They will have no nukes, no navy or air force, no more missiles and drones and payloads, and no ability to manufacture any more of them. And if they try, we will blow them up again.

That’s real politics, not performative diplomatic jive.

Sooner or later, the Revolutionary Guard regime will disintegrate and someone else will have to step up.

The Iranian people deserve a chance to live in the sunlight after what they’ve been through for a half century.

But it’s really up to them to make it happen.

It’s pretty obvious that the American President and his people understand that.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 16:25

Pages