The post Kevin Warsh, Fed Transparency, and Corruption appeared first on CEPR.



 

 

This week, I speak with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group, a Boston-based investment manager with a multi-strategy approach. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, Baupost has grown over the past four decades to $22 billion in assets, with annual net returns of over ~20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.

Klarman is a value investing legend who comes from the school of Graham and Buffett. Known as the “Oracle of Boston,” he is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023). We discuss Seth’s start as a 25-year-old and his 40-year journey running Baupost. He explains his approach to risk, IPOs, and sectors, along with his sports passions, including a smaller ownership in the Boston Red Sox, horse racing, and his feelings about the Boston Celtics’ 2026 season.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here next week.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Carl Richards, a financial advisor who is also the creator of the Sketch Guy column, which ran weekly in New York Times for a decade. He hosts Behavior Gap Radio (1,300+ episodes) He co-hosts “Kitces & Carl — Real Talk for Real Financial Advisors” with Michael Kitces.” Richards latest book is Your Money: Reimagining Wealth in 101 Simple Sketches.”

 

 

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

Authored Books

 

 

The post MiB: Seth Klarman, The Baupost Group appeared first on The Big Picture.

3-Day weekend!  Kick it off with our morning reads:

• Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Anything. I Bet Against My Own Husband: GQ on a woman who hedged her own husband’s career outcomes on Polymarket. The piece is funnier and darker than the premise suggests. You can wager on war, elections, awards shows, reality TV, scientific progress, and—in the case of writer Carrie Sun—your own spouse. If you want to play, you have to wonder: Are you smarter than an inside trader? (GQ)

• Gold Fails the Safe Haven Test Again: Friendly reminder: Gold isn’t a good hedge for inflation or uncertainty. Fisher’s commentary team looks at gold’s behavior during the latest risk-off and finds the safe-haven thesis wanting again. The data is the data; the narrative is the narrative. (Fisher Investments)

• 10 things Elon Musk can — but probably won’t — do with $1 trillion: He is the world’s first trillionaire. Here’s the good that money could do.(Vox)

• The Hacker Sent by Anthropic to Calm the Government’s Nerves About AI Safety: Nicholas Carlini recently rang the alarm about the dangers of AI—and now he’s part of a team arguing for the latest models to be released. (Wall Street Journal)

• Here’s how the government is using AI to speed up the planning system: These two new systems could be genuinely revolutionary. James O’Malley on the UK government’s quiet AI-assisted overhaul of planning permissions. Promising case study in low-glamour but high-impact AI deployment. (James O’Malley)

• 24 Simple Secrets to a Healthier Life: Happiness is not a factory setting. It’s a skill you learn. The brain and the mind are trainable. There are evidence-based ways to cultivate calm, focus and patience. The NYT Well team’s annual experts-share-their-habits interactive. Easy to dismiss, harder to ignore. (New York Times)  see also 12 Breathtaking Natural Wonders in the U.S. You Need to See in Your Lifetime: From iconic parks to lesser-known marvels, these destinations showcase America’s most awe-inspiring landscapes. A perfectly serviceable bucket-list piece. Save for the next trip-planning weekend. From iconic parks to lesser-known marvels, these destinations showcase America’s most awe-inspiring landscapes. (Travel & Leisure)

• How Does Our Taste in Movies Change With Age?: How aging shapes our movie-watching habits, genre preferences, and relationship with the past. A nice empirical look at the lifecycle of cinematic preferences. The data confirms what your dad tells you about new movies — sort of. (Stat Significant)

• Chili Peppers of the World: Cultivars, Species, and Heat: An obsessively organized chili pepper taxonomy. Pure rabbit-hole pleasure. A visual field guide to the chili peppers of the world, from wild origins to cultivated forms, illustrated with 176 hand-drawn peppers. (Notes From The Road)

• Iran Has Humiliated Trump: Officials in Tehran got the United States to sign a document that even Americans described as degrading, mortifying, a total capitulation. The Atlantic’s continuing case that the Iran result is a strategic loss dressed up as deal-making. The argument keeps gaining evidence. (The Atlantic) see also Trump in Defeat: The Atlantic on the rare president-in-the-process-of-losing piece. Less schadenfreude than diagnosis. The president went to war triumphant and will likely leave greatly weakened. (The Atlantic free) see also The Oxymoron of Trump and “Intelligence”: On the gap between intelligence-community findings and the public spin around the Iran campaign. The institutional damage is the lasting cost. We spend $100-billion-a-year on US intelligence that Donald Trump can’t be bothered to read. (Doomsday Scenario)

• The Star of Nike’s Knicks Ad Isn’t Rushing to Fix His Tooth: There were a lot of smiling faces on TV right after the New York Knicks’ momentous NBA championship-clinching victory over the San Antonio Spurs on June 13, but none were as instantly iconic as Chiki Uno’s gap-toothed grin. Uno, a 31-year-old professional model from the Bronx, starred in a Nike advertisement directed by Josh Safdie that aired on TV during the first postgame commercial break. Set to Billy Joel’s “New York State of Mind,” the ad follows a man in a Knicks jersey (Uno) sprinting and cartwheeling down the streets of New York. After a few blocks of running, he reaches his destination — hordes of Knicks fans celebrating their team’s long-awaited championship — and breathes a deep sigh of relief. The look of elation that creeps over his face is a perfect encapsulation of everything that long-suffering Knicks fans were feeling when the ad aired. Uno immediately became an avatar for the city’s jubilant moment. (Vulture)

Video of the day: Why Jalen Brunson Rejected $100,000,000 Because Of Kobe Bryant

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business this week with Seth Klarman, CEO and portfolio manager of The Baupost Group. Founded in 1982 with $27 million in seed capital, over the past four decades, Baupost has grown to $22 billion, with annual net returns of over 20%. The legendary investor is known for his patient, risk-averse, and contrarian approach to finding deeply discounted securities across equities, distressed debt, and real estate.  He is the author of Margin of Safety (1991) and the editor of the 7th edition of Security Analysis (2023).

 

Mistaking a Hiring Freeze for a Robot  
Source: Apollo

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday Juneteenth Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Suckers? 44% Of EU Citizens Feel Well-Protected In The Digital World

While the European Union has taken a global lead in regulating the digital economy, survey data paints a mixed picture of the effectiveness of those efforts.

As Statista's Felix Richter details below, according to a recent Eurobarometer survey, 83 percent of EU citizens consider it important for authorities to ensure that AI and digital technologies respect European rights and values, suggesting broad public support for a strong regulatory framework.

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the same time, only 44 percent say they feel well protected by the EU in the digital world.

The results point to a gap between the bloc’s regulatory ambitions and how secure citizens actually feel online.

In other words, while there is broad backing for stricter rules, many Europeans remain unconvinced that existing measures are fully effective in practice.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 04:45

Hegseth Orders Review Of US Force Posture In Europe, Warns NATO Laggards Of Consequences

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on June 18 announced a six-month review of U.S. force posture and basing in Europe, warning that NATO allies failing to meet defense spending commitments could face consequences as Washington pushes the alliance toward what he called a new era of burden-sharing.

Speaking at a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Hegseth said the review would examine America’s military footprint in Europe and help ensure that European allies assume primary responsibility for the continent’s conventional defense.

“I’m announcing today a six-month Department of War review that will examine America’s force posture and basing in Europe,” Hegseth said.

The review comes as the Trump administration is pushing NATO members to increase defense spending and take over capabilities long provided by the United States.

Earlier this month, NATO officials disclosed that the United States would no longer assign certain capabilities—including an aircraft carrier strike group, support ships, aerial refueling aircraft, and dozens of combat aircraft—to NATO crisis-response plans.

The Trump administration has said that the United States must preserve greater military flexibility as it prepares for the possibility of simultaneous conflicts, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

Hegseth described the U.S. force posture review as part of a broader transformation of the alliance into “NATO 3.0,” a return to what he characterized as NATO’s original mission as a hard-edged military alliance focused on deterrence and warfighting.

“It will be designed to ensure that NATO is moving fast and irreversibly toward Europe leading, stepping up to take primary responsibility for the defense of Europe, stepping up to ensure our forces are postured for America’s global needs,” Hegseth said.

Although Hegseth did not question the U.S. commitment to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause, he indicated that allies failing to meet spending targets could see reductions in U.S. contributions.

“Going forward, our annual NATO dues will be contingent on other countries meeting their defense spending targets,” he said. ”Where other allies do not spend with urgency, our dues contributions will go down. ... It’s a review that some countries will fail and others will pass with flying colors.”

NATO 3.0

Hegseth sharply criticized what he described as decades of underinvestment by European allies.

“For too long, NATO has been a paper tiger and a one-way street,” he said. “No more.”

He argued that after the Cold War, NATO drifted away from its core military mission and toward issues unrelated to deterrence and defense. He described an era in which the alliance had lost its way by focusing on “gender equity and climate change and defense austerity.”

Instead, he said, the alliance must return to being “a real military alliance that’s focused on hard power and real deterrence.”

Hegseth said European allies had made progress in boosting military spending, citing NATO’s new benchmark of spending 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense and related investments.

He also highlighted planned increases in U.S. defense spending, saying that U.S. President Donald Trump had committed to defense budgets exceeding $1 trillion in 2026 and $1.5 trillion in 2027.

“We will lead and exceed our own NATO spending standards,” Hegseth said.

US Contributions Already Cut

The review comes weeks after Washington informed allies that it would reduce certain contributions to NATO’s force model, a planning framework that assigns military capabilities to respond to crises and defend alliance territory.

“In May, the Department of War told allies that we’re reducing our contributions to the NATO force model,” Hegseth said, noting that some allies had already begun stepping in to fill the gaps.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte holds a news conference ahead of a defense ministers' meeting at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels on June 17, 2026. Yves Herman/Reuters

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed on June 18 that those reductions have already taken effect.

“The question yesterday came up: Is this immediate or not?” Rutte told reporters before the ministerial meeting. “It is immediate.”

Rutte clarified that the changes relate to NATO planning assumptions rather than actual wartime commitments.

“Why I’m a little bit reluctant to say this is because it is a planning tool,” he said. “So what would happen in reality? If war would break out ... all allies, including the U.S., will max out what they can do to make sure we can fight the war.”

Despite the changes to force planning, NATO officials said that the alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture remains intact.

In a statement following a June 18 meeting of NATO’s nuclear planning group, allies reaffirmed that they maintain a “safe, secure, effective, and credible nuclear posture to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter aggression.”

They described the alliance’s strategic nuclear forces as the “supreme guarantee of Allied security” that underpins NATO’s deterrence architecture.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/19/2026 - 04:00

Is Trump Preparing To "Escalate To De-Escalate" With Russia?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

He feels personally insulted by Putin rejecting his proposal to freeze the conflict in exchange for a resource-centric strategic partnership and also, whether one agrees with him or not, senses weakness after the US built a “cordon sanitaire” around Russia over the past year.

Trump signed the “G7 leaders’ statement on geopolitical issues” agreeing “to increase the delivery of air defence capacities, additional systems and interceptors, and long-range capabilities. We are also ready to consider extending to Ukraine the benefit of licenses to allow for an increase in Ukraine’s military production…we will strengthen our sanctions, including those on the oil and gas sectors.” This amounts to him preparing to “escalate to de-escalate” with Russia, the reason for which will now be explained.

From Trump’s perspective, which is an explanation but not an excuse in case anyone misinterprets the following, Putin wasted his time these nearly 18 months by talking about peace but rejecting Trump’s proposal to freeze the conflict in exchange for a resource-centric strategic partnership.

Likewise, from Putin’s perspective, Trump reneged on the reported “Spirit of Anchorage” by declining to coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from Donbass in exchange for Putin then declaring a full ceasefire.

Putin accordingly carried on with his special operation, albeit while still eschewing any escalation thereof due to his belief (no matter how outdated some of his supporters think that it’s since become) that Russians and Ukrainians are brothers, which Trump considered to be an insult.

It thus wasn’t the Europeans or Ukrainians who convinced him to renege on the reported “Spirit of Anchorage”, but his ego after he felt offended that Putin rejected his abovementioned proposal to his face in Anchorage.

In retrospect, Trump already had his eyes on Venezuela and Iran once again too, which is why he held off on “escalating to de-escalate” till both of those were wrapped up.

Meanwhile, he implemented his Neo-Reagan Doctrine of rolling back Russian influence worldwide with a focus on Russia’s entire southern periphery in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which completed Russia’s strategic encirclement. A “cordon sanitaire” has now been established around the entire country.

This US-organized geostrategic construct was built in the Arctic-Baltic through UK-led efforts, Central Europe through Polish-led efforts, along its entire southern periphery through Turkish-led efforts, and Northeast Asia through Japanese-led efforts. Trump was therefore almost certainly advised by the deep state that now is the perfect moment to intensify pressure on Russia so as to coerce it into unilateral concessions for ending the Ukrainian Conflict and consequently alleviating some of this pressure.

Whether or not Putin will comply remains a matter of debate, but the aforesaid uncertainty doesn’t mean that Trump wasn’t convinced that now is the perfect time to “escalate to de-escalate” upon sensing what he truly believes to be weakness.

The risk is that Putin finally abandons his belief in the brotherhood of Russians and Ukrainians to reciprocally escalate, possibly even going as far as limited conventional strikes against NATO members to call what he might believe is the big bluff about Article 5.

Unless Russia either capitulates to the US’ demands or there’s a diplomatic breakthrough whereby a balance of interests is reached through a series of mutual compromises, the first of which is improbable while the latter is possible even if unlikely, then a major escalation in NATO-Russian tensions is expected.

Trump ultimately settled for less than he demanded from Iran despite earlier threatening to destroy its civilization if it didn’t unconditionally surrender so he might once again “chicken out” and cut a deal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 23:25

The Cost Of Helium-3: Earth Sources Vs The Moon

When it comes to Helium-3, the biggest cost divide is between Earth and the Moon. Potential sources range from tritium decay and terrestrial helium wells on Earth to lunar regolith on the Moon. Today, Earth-based sources remain far easier and cheaper to access.

This graphic, created by Visual Capitalist's Cody Good in partnership with Pulsar Helium, compares major potential sources of Helium-3 by cost, scalability, and accessibility. It’s part three of four in the Helium 3: From Theory to Opportunity series, delivering key He-3 insights for investors tracking deep tech, critical minerals, and advanced computing.

The Extraction Cost of Helium-3

Looking at cost alone, Earth-based sources currently have a major advantage over Moon-based He-3.

 

Source: Pulsar Helium; CRS R41419 (Shea & Morgan, 2010); Niechciał et al., Energies (2020); Thunder Said Energy; NASA OIG; CLPS contract data; USGS Keszthelyi et al. (2023); Smith‑Vaniz et al. (2026); Interlune..

Values reflect order‑of‑magnitude estimates from market pricing (tritium), thermodynamic separation floors (Pulsar), and CLPS‑based transport floors (lunar), using simplified assumptions for grade, throughput, and infrastructure.

Tritium decay is an existing Earth-based source, tied to nuclear weapons stockpiles. The tritium used in warheads decays into He-3 and is recovered during processing; however, supply is limited by nuclear stockpiles and government control. 

Lunar regolith refers to the Moon’s surface material, where He-3 is believed to have accumulated from solar wind particles over time. Extracting He-3 would involve mining the Moon’s surface material, processing it to release gases, separating the He-3, and then returning it to Earth.

Pulsar sits between these two extremes by accessing Earth-based helium deposits using similar drilling technology as used for natural gas wells. The cost estimate is based only on the theoretical energy needed to separate He-3 from a gas stream, and excludes capex, labour, and other operating costs.

Comparing Source Scalability

Cost is only one part of the He-3 supply story. Each source also has a very different path to scale.

• Tritium Decay: Low scalability, because supply is capped by nuclear stockpiles.
• Pulsar Helium: Moderate scalability, with the potential to scale through terrestrial wells.
• Lunar Regolith: High theoretical scalability, based on a large inferred resource on the Moon.

For tritium, without government subsidies, the price grows significantly further reducing scalability and accessibility.

How Easy is Helium-3 to Access?

Accessibility is the other major difference between Earth and lunar sources.

• Tritium Decay: Moderate accessibility through existing infrastructure, but largely government-controlled.
• Pulsar Helium: Moderate accessibility, with earth-based sourcing.
• Lunar Regolith: Very low accessibility, with no current mining or return logistics.

Lunar He-3 may become more competitive over time, but for now, the only sources available are Earth-based.

Helium 3: From Theory to Opportunity

The rising demand for He-3 is putting new pressure on supply. Though lunar mining may one day become part of the long-term story, the near-term opportunity is much closer to home.

For investors, the key question is not just how much He-3 exists, but how realistically it can be produced and delivered. Scalability and accessibility shape how quickly a resource can move from concept to market.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 23:00

Pentagon Restores Pacific Command Name, Reversing 2018 'Indo-Pacific' Rebrand

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The Pentagon said on June 16 that it was restoring the name U.S. Pacific Command, reversing a 2018 decision that rebranded the command as U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to reflect the growing strategic importance of India and the Indian Ocean in U.S. defense policy.

The Department of War said in a statement that the command, known as U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) since 2018, would officially revert to its previous designation, U.S. Pacific Command, or USPACOM, a name it carried for more than seven decades before the change.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth highlighted the move on social media, writing, “U.S. Pacific Command...is back.”

The Pentagon said the decision was intended to restore the command’s historical identity and military heritage rather than to signal any change in mission, geographic scope, or strategic priorities.

“Restoring the legacy USPACOM designation honors the command’s deep historical roots, fostering a sense of pride and collective spirit among all who serve in the Pacific,” the department said in a statement.

The Pentagon further clarified that the command’s area of responsibility, stretching from the waters off the U.S. West Coast to the western border of India, remains unchanged, as does its commitment to maintaining a “free and open theater alongside regional allies and partners.”

The move restores the name under which the command operated from its establishment in 1947 until May 2018.

The Pentagon did not provide a detailed explanation for the decision beyond citing the command’s historical legacy.

The name change quickly drew scrutiny in India.

Nirupama Rao, India’s former foreign secretary and ambassador to Washington, said in a post on X that the key question raised by the decision was whether the United States still viewed India as a “co-architect of regional order or simply as one useful actor among many in advancing American objectives.”

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) is the largest of the Department of War’s six geographic joint combatant commands, with an area of operation that stretches from its Pearl Harbor headquarters west across two oceans to the Arabian Sea. Department of War/Epoch Times Screenshot

Rao said the renaming came amid a series of recent developments, such as “cooler optics” at the G7 summit in France and the deaths of three Indian sailors in a U.S. strike on an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military said the vessel had violated its blockade on Iranian ports.

Taken together, these and other developments could suggest a shift toward a more transactional phase in U.S.–India relations, she suggested.

“None of these individually proves a strategic rupture,” Rao wrote. “But collectively they suggest that the exuberant phase of India–US relations may be ending. The relationship is becoming more normal, more transactional, and perhaps more difficult.”

Shashi Tharoor, an Indian member of Parliament and former minister of state, questioned whether the move was a “nail in the coffin” for the Quad, the four-country grouping made up of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.

The Pentagon has given no indication that the change reflects any downgrading of ties with India.

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth speaks at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore on May 30, 2026. Edgar Su/Reuters

In remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last month, Hegseth described India as “a critical anchor to hold the line” and praised the country’s military modernization efforts and growing defense-industrial cooperation with the United States.

“We’ve also committed to pursuing co-production with India to advance capabilities like Javelin anti-tank guided munitions,” Hegseth said, describing the moves as among a number of “real tangible steps to improve the collective readiness” of U.S. forces.

While the practical implications of the name change seem limited, the decision reverses what was widely seen as a visible symbolic shift in U.S. regional strategy rather than a mere bureaucratic adjustment when the 2018 switch was made.

Then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis announced the change during a command transition ceremony in Hawaii, saying it reflected the “increasing connectivity” between the Indian and Pacific oceans and underscored Washington’s commitment to the broader Indo-Pacific region.

Former U.S. Secretary of Defense General Jim Mattis speaks at a Reuters Newsmaker event in New York on Sept. 9, 2019. Gary He/Reuters

At the time, Mattis described the Indo-Pacific as a region stretching “from Hollywood to Bollywood” and highlighted the growing importance of the Indian Ocean to U.S. strategic planning.

Describing the 2018 National Defense Strategy as a “roadmap for the American military,” Mattis said at the time that the strategy “acknowledges the Pacific challenges and signals America’s resolve and lasting commitment to the Indo-Pacific.”

The Trump administration’s 2026 National Defense Strategy repeatedly refers to the “Indo-Pacific” and identifies deterring China in the region as one of the military’s primary objectives. The document describes the Indo-Pacific as the world’s largest and most dynamic economic area and calls for maintaining a favorable balance of power there.

Buildings and structures sit on an artificial island built by China in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea on Oct. 25, 2022. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

“We will deter China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation,” Hegseth wrote in the document, which further states that the U.S. military would act to support “strategic stability” with Beijing while focusing on “deconfliction and de-escalation.”

“But we will also be clear-eyed and realistic about the speed, scale, and quality of China’s historic military buildup,” the 2026 strategy states. “Our goal in doing so is not to dominate China; nor is it to strangle or humiliate them. Rather, our goal is simple: To prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or our allies.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 22:35

Which States Brew The Most Craft Beer?

American craft brewers produced roughly 22 million barrels of beer in 2025, the equivalent of more than 7 billion 12-ounce cans. That output is concentrated in a few key states.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the barrels of craft beer produced in every U.S. state in 2025, based on data from the Brewers Association.

Figures reflect the association’s June 2026 revision and cover all 50 states plus Washington, D.C.

To count as craft, a brewery must produce no more than 6 million barrels per year and be less than 25% owned by a large alcohol company. One barrel equals 31 gallons, or roughly 330 twelve-ounce cans.

California Brews Nearly One in Every Six U.S. Craft Beers

California tops the nation with 3.45 million barrels of craft beer brewed in 2025. The state’s 939 craft breweries are also the most in the country, well ahead of second-place Pennsylvania’s 538.

Pennsylvania ranks second in volume at 2.0 million barrels, with much of that total coming from Yuengling, America’s oldest operating brewery, founded in 1829, and its largest craft brewer by volume.

The data table below shows each state’s total production of craft beer in 2025 in barrels:

RankStateBarrels of Craft Beer Produced (2025) 1California3,450,329 2Pennsylvania2,004,382 3Texas1,422,277 4Ohio1,298,489 5New York1,281,220 6Florida1,153,556 7Oregon1,109,391 8Colorado854,707 9Massachusetts812,974 10North Carolina772,964 11Wisconsin609,271 12Georgia601,462 13Washington533,296 14Minnesota466,625 15Connecticut450,232 16Illinois409,589 17Vermont357,138 18Virginia342,075 19Maine338,405 20Missouri284,297 21Michigan267,660 22Arizona229,212 23Indiana222,088 24Montana216,992 25Delaware186,803 26Hawaii179,149 27Maryland176,644 28Tennessee174,083 29New Jersey161,094 30Louisiana155,643 31Iowa134,108 32Alaska133,395 33New Mexico132,852 34South Carolina125,086 35Kentucky121,865 36Utah102,241 37New Hampshire88,320 38Alabama80,869 39Arkansas71,520 40Oklahoma69,318 41Idaho64,945 42Wyoming63,130 43Rhode Island59,768 44Nevada54,683 45Nebraska46,358 46Kansas35,059 47District of Columbia30,036 48West Virginia21,562 49South Dakota21,183 50North Dakota19,051 51Mississippi18,262

In total, seven states: California, Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, New York, Florida, and Oregon, each brewed more than 1 million barrels in 2025. Together, they accounted for 53% of all U.S. craft beer production.

At the other end of the list, Mississippi brewed 18,262 barrels of craft beer in 2025, the least of any state.

Big States’ Beer Brewing and What Defines Craft

Population explains much of the order, as the four most populous states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, all rank in the top six, but not all of it. Ohio’s 1.3 million barrels edge out far larger New York and Florida, while Illinois, the sixth-most populous state, ranks just 16th at 409,589 barrels.

Smaller states punch above their weight, too: Vermont, the second-smallest state by population, brewed 357,138 barrels in 2025, out-brewing far larger Virginia and Michigan, with Maine close behind at 338,405. Demand varies just as much as supply, with Americans’ alcohol spending per capita differing widely from state to state.

Because the Brewers Association’s definition hinges on independent ownership, state totals can shift when breweries change hands. Colorado’s New Belgium Brewing, in 2019, and Michigan’s Bell’s Brewery, in 2021, were both acquired by Lion, a subsidiary of Japan’s Kirin. This moved their volumes out of the craft column and dented both states’ totals.

That helps explain why Michigan’s 410 craft breweries produced just 268,660 barrels in 2025, ranking the state 21st by volume.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Which States Have the Most Breweries Per Person? on Voronoi.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 22:10

Washington's Business Exodus

Authored by Mark Harmsworth via The Washington Policy Center,

Washington state’s business climate continues to deteriorate under the weight of record tax increases and burdensome regulations.

A spring 2026 survey by the Association of Washington Business reveals alarming trends.

Nearly one in four employers (24 percent) are now actively considering relocating their businesses out of state, up sharply from 17 percent in the previous quarter and nearly triple the level from winter 2025.

Another 55 percent of business leaders are considering moving their personal residences elsewhere, citing the state’s escalating tax burden as the top challenge. This flight is no surprise. Washington’s business tax climate has plummeted from sixth-best in the nation in 2014 to near the bottom today, with the state now ranking among the worst for small-business survival.

Major tax hikes enacted in 2025 are now hitting businesses hard. Starting in late 2025 and accelerating into 2026, the state increased business & occupation tax rates for service businesses and introduced new surcharges. Large companies face a 0.5 percent surcharge on taxable income of more than $250 million, while advanced computing firms saw their surcharge jump dramatically. These changes, part of the largest tax increase in state history, are projected to reduce state gross domestic product growth by up to 0.5 percent in 2026 (nearly $4.5 billion) and cut wages by billions of dollars more.

Office vacancy rates reflect the pain. Although Seattle’s downtown vacancy rate remains among the nation’s highest (hovering between 28 percent and more than 35 percent in reports from the first quarter of 2026), the broader Puget Sound region and state face similar pressures from remote work shifts and corporate relocations. Companies such as Starbucks are shifting hundreds of jobs to lower-tax states such as Tennessee. Other firms have issued worker adjustment and retraining notification notices and moved operations to Idaho, Utah, and beyond.

High-profile exits and stalled expansions are mounting. Entrepreneurs report that Washington’s combination of high taxes, regulatory red tape, and hostile policies makes growth nearly impossible.

The bottom line is that as the high earners and companies leave the state, the revenue from increased taxes, including the new income tax, will dry up and politicians in Olympia will be left scrambling for new sources of tax revenue.

The $1 million threshold on the income tax will fall in the blink of an eye.

Politicians have to restore small-business owners’ confidence in the regulatory environment and keep the promises they are making.

Just three months after signing the income tax into law, lauding it as the way forward for the state, Gov. Bob Ferguson is now claiming that he will veto any change to the exemption threshold in order to garner support to keep the legislation in place.

History indicates that Ferguson’s claim might be a little “flexible,” and that’s the problem. There is no predictability for business owners.

Until leaders recognize that businesses vote with their feet, and their payrolls, the state’s economic outlook will remain clouded.

Washington can reverse course. Lowering the tax burden, simplifying regulations, and prioritizing a pro-growth environment would stem the exodus and restore prosperity.

The data are clear. Washington is losing the competition. It’s time to compete again.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 21:45

Amazon Plans $10B Missouri Data Center Campus

By Sebastian Obando of ConstructionDive

Amazon will invest $10 billion to build a data center campus in Montgomery County, Missouri, Gov. Mike Kehoe announced Monday. In addition to facility construction, the development includes roads and water infrastructure improvements, such as a new bridge over theNorfolk Southern Railway and a water system Amazon plans to transfer to the local utility after construction, according to the tech giant.

The announcement adds yet another multibillion-dollar data center project to the construction pipeline, a sign the data center construction boom has room to run.

Representational image of an Amazon data center construction site | Image courtesy: Amazon

The $10 billion Amazon investment highlights the growing role of hyperscale developers in overall U.S. construction activity. 

Once complete, the campus will support cloud computing infrastructure and generate hundreds of millions in property tax revenue for Montgomery County over the next 25 years, according to the release. Amazon also worked with Ameren Missouri, the local utility company, to ensure the project bears the full cost of connecting to the electric grid, the tech giant said.

The commitment also emphasizes how these builds often carry supplementary community projects. For example, Amazon plans over $7 million in community contributions as part of its investment, according to the company. That includes $3 million toward public safety infrastructure, as well as several roadway improvements and a new bridge.

“Projects like this create lasting benefits for local communities by supporting critical infrastructure improvements, generating tax revenue for schools and public services, and strengthening the foundation for future economic growth,” said Kehoe in the release.

In addition to the infrastructure upgrades in the area, Amazon will sponsor the community’s Montgomery County Fair. The company will commit over $1 million to build a new large-scale community gathering space at the fairgrounds, according to the governor’s release.

Amazon will also invest more than $3 million in community programs focused on STEM education, skills development, sustainability and support for local nonprofit organizations, the announcement said. 

“Amazon’s announcement in Montgomery County is a testament to what can be accomplished through strong collaboration and a shared commitment to growth,” said Michelle Hataway, director of the Missouri Department of Economic Development, in the release. “This project will help strengthen the region’s capacity for future development while reinforcing Missouri’s position as a destination for innovation and investment.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 21:20

US Security Chief Says One Suspected Terrorist Is Arrested At Canadian Border 'Almost Weekly'

Authored by Paul Rowan Brian via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin says American authorities apprehend a suspected or wanted terrorist at the Canada-U.S. border "almost weekly," while warning that "fracturing" relations between the two countries could leave both more vulnerable to criminal organizations, fentanyl traffickers, and other threats.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin testifies before the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security in Washington on June 3, 2026. AP Photo/Cliff Owen

Mullin made the remarks June 17 during a fireside conversation with Canada's Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He added that the United States is concerned that many criminal organizations whose activity has been reduced due to enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border are moving operations to the northern border.

"We arrest a terrorist - one either on the watch list or wanted terrorist - on our northern border almost weekly," Mullin said. "Some of the fracturing we have right now between the countries, we've got to figure it out."

Mullin was sworn in as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security on March 24, succeeding Kristi Noem after she was reposted as the special envoy for the Shield of the Americas by U.S. President Donald Trump.

'Solid Foundation'

Mullin said improving Canada-U.S. relations and building a "solid foundation" is vital to ensuring that criminals don't take advantage of a U.S.-Canada rupture in relations.

"We've got to move past our differences so we can build that solid foundation, because we have criminals, we have cartels, we have organized crime that's taken advantage of it," he added.

While Mullin warned that criminal organizations along with terror suspects and illegal immigrants are increasingly targeting the U.S. northern border, Anandasangaree said Canada has already made considerable progress in tightening border security. Illegal migration from Canada into the United States has declined by 99 percent since Ottawa introduced a plan to boost border security in December 2024, the minister stated.

"The border plan that we introduced in 2024 December, which has been implemented now over the last 18 months, is bearing fruit," he said.

Anandasangaree also highlighted close collaboration between Canadian and American authorities.

"The cooperation amongst law enforcement, whether it's DHS and Canada Border Services, or the operations centre where we're embedded in Detroit, it's critically important and we're seeing that bearing fruit for security," he said.

Concern About Cartels Moving North: Mullin

Mullin said that in addition to terrorist-related threats and illegal immigration, the U.S. government is highly concerned about the flow of fentanyl and cartel activity through its northern border.

"Over the last year we've apprehended enough fentanyl that would kill 17 million Americans on our northern border," he said.

Mullin said he believes an uptick in organized crime activity at the Canada-U.S. border is due to stricter enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border and "pressure we're putting on the cartels" that is causing them to seek out "other areas."

"We see the amount of increase of criminal activity that's happening. And we see the same techniques that were on the southern border that are moving to the northern border," Mullin said.

He said that cooperation between the United States and Canada is "vitally important" and pointed to intelligence-sharing between the two nations as the top priority.

"Our biggest priority now is to have great partnerships with our friends to the North to be able to actively stop [illegal activity] before it grows to the point that it is in Mexico," he said, adding "the biggest issue that we've really got to work on is sharing the intel and then acting on it in a timely manner."

Canada-US Tensions

At one point, Mullin compared the Canada-U.S. relationship to marriage, saying that current tensions are similar to when he and his wife get into an argument.

"It's kind of like my wife and I when she gets really mad at me, and I'm well deserved to get mad at, sometimes I just have to stop and say, 'love you,'" he said.

"Arguing doesn't help; it only allows us to be more vulnerable for somebody else to sneak in and take my beautiful wife away from me."

Anandasangaree also emphasized close U.S.-Canada ties, saying they go beyond government cooperation to economic prosperity.

"We rely heavily on each other for both security, but as well as trade and commerce," he said, adding that much of the $900 billion of trade that takes place between the two countries annually is done "in an orderly manner that benefits both of our countries."

"What differences we have is negligible compared to what we have in common and the work that we're doing together," Anandasangaree added.

The minister also noted ongoing enhanced investments in border security in Canada including the hiring of 1,000 more RCMP and 1,000 more Canada Border Service Agency personnel announced in June last year, along with increased use of drones, helicopters, and surveillance technology at the border.

Anandasangaree also referenced close cooperation between the RCMP and FBI in working together to help lead to the arrest of accused transnational Canadian drug trafficker Ryan Wedding by Mexican authorities in January, in addition to a recent investigation by Peel Regional Police that led to 17 arrests in May.

Fentanyl

Mullin's figures for fentanyl lethality appear to be based on the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's calculation method for potential fentanyl deaths, which holds that 2 milligrams can be a potentially lethal dose for the average person.

Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection showed very low fentanyl seizures at the Canada-U.S. border during the period from July 2024 through to February 2026, with Ottawa stating that "Canada is not a significant source of illegal fentanyl entering the US. Less than 1% of fentanyl seized in the US comes from Canada."

The office of Canada's Fentanyl Czar Kevin Brosseau cites U.S. statistics in noting that roughly 71,000 pounds of fentanyl were seized at the U.S.-Mexico border from 2022 to 2025, compared to approximately 134 pounds seized at the Canada-U.S. border or in its vicinity.

While Mullin emphasized the scale of fentanyl seizures at the northern border, Anandasangaree said the real source of the crisis is precursors manufactured overseas.

"The flow of fentanyl is not from the north to south or south to north; it is coming from overseas with precursors that enable dealers to manufacture and distribute in our countries," Anandasangaree said, though adding that he agreed "fentanyl and the scourge of fentanyl is impacting both of our countries."

Looking Ahead

In terms of the future of the Canada-U.S. relationship, both officials said they are confident that cooperation will continue despite political disagreements.

"If there are irritations, we need to just work through them. We will work through them," Anandasangaree said.

Mullin echoed this, saying that despite current tensions, the two countries remain indispensable partners.

"What we have to do is quit focusing on our differences and start thinking about what we have in common," Mullin said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 20:55

Infant Mortality Drops To All-Time Low In United States

Infant mortality has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded in the United States, according to new preliminary data from the CDC - though it's still higher than in some other countries. According to the data, 5.36 infants per 1,000 live births died, down from 5.54 in 2024 and 5.63 in 2023. The results are based on death and birth certificates.

A baby in a hospital in a file photograph. Fred Dufour/AFP via Getty Images

Infants is defined as children who have not yet reached their first birthday.

According to researchers, the decline is statistically meaningful and translates into hundreds of fewer infant deaths per year.

"This is an encouraging data point, and we hope that this trend will continue," said Dr. Michael Warren, chief medical and health officer for the March of Dimes.

Warren said it was difficult to pinpoint what was driving the decline.

As the Epoch Times notes further, the overall numbers have been going down. U.S. infant deaths fell to about 19,350 last year, according to provisional CDC data that may rise a little as additional analysis is completed. The final tally is still expected to be down from about 20,050 in 2024 and about 20,160 in 2023, according to the agency.

Leading causes of infant mortality are birth defects, preterm birth and low birth weight, sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injuries such as car accidents, and pregnancy complications, the CDC says.

The new data is not yet available by state. In 2024, infant mortality rates varied widely across states.

The CDC said this week in a report analyzing infant mortality data from 2024 that Mississippi had the highest infant mortality rate at 9.65 deaths per 1,000 births, and New Hampshire had the lowest, at just under 3 per 1,000.

"These differences are reflective of a variety of reasons related to access to care, community factors, and policies that improve health and outcomes," Warren said.

Not The Lowest

Worldwide, the infant mortality rate is 28 per 1,000 live births, according to the World Bank. The new U.S. rate is well below the average across countries.

A number of developed countries, though, boast lower rates, including Australia, Belgium, and Hungary.

From 2007 to 2022, infants were 78 percent more likely to die in the United States than in other high-income countries, researchers said in a 2025 paper.

Older children in the United States also faced higher odds of dying than kids in the other countries with high incomes.

In 2023, U.S. health officials began recommending two new measures aimed at protecting infants: a lab-made antibody shot for infants that helps the immune system fight off the respiratory syncytial virus, and an RSV vaccine for women between 32 weeks and 36 weeks of pregnancy.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 20:30

More Gunmakers Relocate To GOP States

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

Firearms manufacturers Ruger and Rideout Arsenal are heading south, continuing a trend of firearms companies leaving Democrat-run states.

On June 10, Virginia-based Rideout Arsenal, a firearms designer and manufacturer, announced that it would invest $22 million to build a new manufacturing facility in Thomasville, Georgia. The investment would create 120 new jobs over the next several years, the company said.

"This relocation was not something we originally planned to pursue," Rideout founders Travis and Kelsey Rideout said in a statement.

"The reality is that recent anti-gun legislation in Virginia created a significant uncertainty for our company and ultimately forced us to look for a state where we could continue operating, investing, and growing with confidence."

These moves follow a trend in which firearms manufacturers such as Remington, Winchester, Stag Arms, Magpul, Troy Industries, Smith & Wesson, Dark Storm, and others have relocated over the past decade from left-leaning states such as New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Colorado to conservative states such as Florida, Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee.

"Firearm businesses are migrating to other states primarily because states like Virginia, Connecticut, Colorado, Massachusetts, and others are becoming increasingly hostile to Second Amendment rights and the ability for these companies to produce firearms in their states," Mark Oliva, public affairs director for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, told The Epoch Times.

"While Virginia was the latest example with Rideout Arsenal moving to Georgia, the move of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc., to move their headquarters and expand production to Tennessee underscores the importance of firearm businesses finding greener pastures."

With Democrats in control of the legislature and the governorship, Virginia recently passed an array of new gun control laws, effective on July 1, including among other things a ban on the sale of various semi-automatic firearms, and certain large-capacity magazines, unserialized firearms, as well as new restrictions on carrying firearms in public places. Virginia also enacted laws to expand civil liability for gun manufacturers and dealers.

In welcoming Rideout to his state, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp stated that his state's "pro-business approach, skilled workforce, and enduring support for constitutional freedoms make us an ideal home for manufacturers like Rideout Arsenal."

In May, it became public that Ruger had relocated its head office from Fairfield, Connecticut, to Mayodan, North Carolina, at the start of the year. Although the company has not issued a public statement, it listed Mayodan as its location in its quarterly earnings report and has since confirmed the move.

Connecticut, once known as the "arsenal of democracy," had been home to several of America's largest firearms manufacturers, including Smith & Wesson, Winchester, and now Sturm, Ruger & Co. Since the 2012 massacre of 26 first-grade children and teachers at Sandy Hook School in Newtown, the state has passed a series of laws to limit access to guns. In addition, the state has been the site of a number of lawsuits against gun makers, such as the $73 million settlement of a lawsuit brought by the parents of Sandy Hook children against Remington and threats of civil litigation against Ruger in November 2025.

Moving out of left-leaning states may lead to a more business-friendly environment, but it will do little to protect firearms manufacturers from lawsuits, Oliva said.

"The threat of litigation is still alive, since states like New Jersey and New York have pursued laws that allow for loosely designed 'public nuisance' lawsuits to skirt the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act," Oliva said. "The move to these states is more about the ability to produce the firearms today's gun owners want and the legislative threats to that business."

The 2005 Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act prohibits lawsuits against manufacturers or dealers of firearms and ammunition for harm solely caused by criminal misuse of their products.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 20:05

Bad News Overload? News Avoidance On The Rise

These days more than ever, it often feels like there’s no end to bad news.

In the age of social media and constant exposure to news, doom scrolling can take a heavy toll on people’s mental wellbeing.

As a consequence, more and more people actively try to avoid the news or at least limit their exposure to it.

As Statista's Felix Richter shows in the chart below, according to the Reuters Institute’s latest Digital News Report, an average of 42 percent of respondents from 48 countries included in the survey said that they sometimes or often actively avoid the news, a significant increase from 29 percent in 2017, when the question was first asked.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Selective news avoidance, as the Reuters Institute calls it, became significantly more widespread across all markets in recent years, with half of all respondents from the United Kingdom and 45 percent of U.S. respondents making an effort to reduce their news intake.

The Reuters Institute finds that news avoidance is often linked with low trust in the news and that there are generally two types of news avoiders: consistent avoiders who typically have low education levels and little to no interest in the news; and selective avoiders who struggle with news overload and try to insulated themselves from certain topic to protect their mental wellbeing.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 19:40

Waste Of The Day: Town Manager's Snacking Spree

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Michael Boaz, the former town manager of Pilot Mountain, North Carolina, made hundreds of unauthorized purchases on his city credit card from 2022 to 2024, including bullets and a hotel for his family vacation, according to a state audit released in May.

Boaz was fired in 2024 when the allegations first came to light. Now that a state audit confirmed the questionable purchases, he has been indicted for felony embezzlement.

Key facts: Boaz' questionable purchases totaled $18,426, much of which was spent on food. He spent $12,897 at pizzerias, barbecue restaurants, an oyster bar, Chili's, Jersey Mike's Subs and many more. He also placed 34 DoorDash orders for $1,576.

Boaz bought $2,300 worth of other items, including ammunition, a massage and a hotel for a family vacation.

Credit card records show Boaz claimed the purchases were for work meetings, but he did not provide documentation and could not remember who attended the alleged meetings, according to the audit.

All checks and balances were ignored. The town's finance officer paid Boaz' credit card bill without reviewing the transactions, and the town's board of commissioners failed to review credit card statements even though the town's credit card policy requires them to do so.

Boaz was also paid $37,936 in unused vacation leave when he resigned in 2024. The audit found that $12,804 of that payout was improper.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world's largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.

Background: Pilot Mountain, population 1,500, is located about 30 miles northwest of Winston-Salem. Boaz was hired as town manager in 2019 and earned $108,000 in 2024, records show.

Summary: The town of Pilot Mountain paid for thousands of dollars in meals, bullets and travel that auditors say had no legitimate public purpose. The town also failed to follow basic oversight rules that could have prevented or caught the spending earlier.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 19:15

Removing AI Spyware From Your Google Account

Authored by Thomas Neuburger via Naked Capitalism,

Yves here. News you can use! And advice that helps readers limit their exposure to two longstanding abuses. One is the unending efforts of the surveillance state to extend its reach. Two is the way AI companies steal original work without consent or compensation to feed into training sets.

By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God's Spies

The glorifyingly named Googleplex headquarters in Mountain View, California.

As most have noticed, AI is entering our lives in a very big way.

Doctor's offices are using AI to replace human scribes, which means whole visits must be recorded and saved. For how long? This can vary or be changed. And AI will soon decide whether you're too disabled to drive your own car (for that, see here).

The rush toward AI - a rush to prop up the stocks and cut employees - is producing an AI fence between you and all of the corporate entities that run your life. For example, AI now guards the door between you and your next job or loan.

AI has also entered your dealings with the state. Will you be audited this year? AI will decide. How will your Social Security struggles be handled? AI will replace the humans who deal with your needs. And of course, AI policing is already here.

AI is not only "changing what it means to be human," but for us little folks, us muppets, it's replacing the human entirely in corporate and government interactions - because money, despite its propensity for massive mistakes.

And that doesn't begin to discuss AI battlefield murder, a use no one but those in control want to grow.

Gmail And AI

Which leads us to discuss AI's intrusion into our digital lives. On most computers and websites, AI is ubiquitous. Today, let's take a look at Gmail and AI.

The latest versions of Gmail, a web-based email client, have AI mail scanning and analysis turned on. If you want AI watching, no problem. Leave it turned on.

If you want to de-AI your Gmail account - to extent you can, at least - these are the steps. I found this thanks to this Twitter account. The thread begins as follows (slight editing mine):

If you have a Gmail account, you need to read this.

Google's AI now scans your emails and attachments, bank statements, tax files, medical letters, all of it. It turned on by default, and there's a class-action lawsuit over how. [...]

Google automatically turned on AI features in Gmail, Chat, and Meet for many users in late 2025. These features can read your emails, messages, and attachments to create summaries and suggestions.

Google says your emails don't train Gemini, but some users say they never clearly agreed to these AI features being enabled. Unless you turn them off, the AI can still analyze your inbox to provide these features.

The thread details the steps. As I worked through them, I found differences between his steps and mine, so here are the steps as modified by my own experience.

Change Your Gmail Settings

Change the main Gmail and Google Workspace settings as follows:

1. Go to Settings - See all settings.
2. In your browser's search bar (Ctrl-F), search for the word "smart" (no quotes).

1. Find every mention of "smart" in the settings and turn it off. On my version of Gmail, that includes Grammar, Spelling, Autocorrect, Smart Compose, Smart Compose personalization, and Smart Reply. Your list may differ.
2. Make sure Smart Features, a major settings checkbox, is unchecked (see below).
3. Go to Google Workspace smart features and click on the Manage Workplace smart features settings button (above).
4. On the next screen, toggle everything off and click Save.

1. Go the bottom of the main settings page and click Save Changes (important).

Check Your Phone Settings. Delete Your Gemini History.

The writer advises doing the following as well:

Your Phone. The settings don't always sync between devices, so check the Gmail app separately.

Gmail app - Menu - Settings - Select your account - Turn off "Smart features and personalization" - Confirm.

And if you've used Gemini already:

Delete Gemini History. If you've used Gemini before, your chats may be saved, and some could be reviewed by humans.

Go to http://myactivity.google.com/product/gemini - Turn off Gemini Apps Activity - Delete Activity - All Time.

This removes your past Gemini chat history and stops future conversations from being saved.

I had no Gemini history, but that won't be true for everyone.

Does All This Stop Google From Watching You?

You could say that Google is always watching you. This is their profit model: watching and selling you ads, watching and selling your profile. It's why they're so rich.

But it seems, at least for now, that turning smart features off in your Gmail and Google Workspace account means AI is no longer used to power those feature, and indeed is turned off. In addition, as of this writing, Google claims that Gmail smart features is not a backdoor way of training its AI. At least so far.

The murdered girls of Minab, Iran (Ons Abid/AP Photo) Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 18:25

Gulf Oil Is Available Again, But Asian Refiners Balk At Soaring Tanker Rates

Iran and the US have a peace deal? check (for 60 days, allegedly). 

Strait of Hormuz open? check (for 60 days, allegedly).

Ships transiting freely? check (not really)

Massive build up of Gulf oil desperate to reach Asian refiners? check.

All great news, which means that oil should now flow freely and in huge amounts, right?

Wrong: two of Asia's largest refiners, PetroChina and Indian Oil, failed to secure very large crude carriers to lift Iraqi Basrah crude in late June, Reuters reported, while another Chinese major Sinochem is on the hunt for a ‌tanker.

The inquiries from the state energy firms followed an interim deal between the United States and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. PetroChina had sought a VLCC (which can carry up to 2mm barrels) to load from Iraq's Basrah Oil terminal between ​June 25 and 30. And while the Chinese major received at least six offers at worldscale ​points of 650 to 750, these rates were nearly triple those charged before the Iran war broke out in late February. The worldscale measure is used by the shipping industry to calculate freight rates.

"There are tankers available, but the problem is it's too expensive and there is ​no guarantee you can exit the strait," a PetroChina official said.

Indeed, a quick look at the latest gulf tanker rates shows that while not nearly as bad as when the war broke out, rates on tankers from the Gulf to various Asian destinations have doubled in the past weeks as buyers scramble to secure their shipments. Expect these prices to soar much higher in the coming days.

The punchline: securing supplies from the Gulf will remain complicated despite the peace deal, and not just due to the soaring tanker prices. 

"It'll be ‌still ⁠difficult to fix a vessel due to the rate, and I assume that both parties need to agree to some special clause (in the contract for transiting the strait)," the source said.

On Thursday, another Chinese state major, Sinochem, sought a VLCC to load oil in the Gulf between June 20 and ​30 for Asia, ​the shipping sources said. ⁠It was not immediately clear if the company would succeed in finding a vessel.

Remarkably, as this was taking place, India's giant oil company IOC did not receive any offers in a tender ​last week ⁠seeking a VLCC to lift oil from Iraq on June 22 and 23 and deliver to Paradip port on India's east coast, a Reuters source said.

IOC, India's largest ⁠refiner, subsequently ​issued a force majeure on the cargo. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 18:00

Bullish Or Bearish Into Year-End? BTIG & Fundstrat To Face Off

LIVE NOW:

https://t.co/jxITOFkt3p

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2026

****************************

S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record highs despite yesterday’s post-Fed freakout. Risk-on is still in fashion as investors remain hopeful of a lasting U.S.-Iran peace. Though the question remains: Is the rally sustainable or are markets poised for a painful reversal before year-end?

Tonight at 7pm ET, Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money hosts a debate between two of Wall Street's closely followed technical strategists: Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at BTIG, and Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat.

Bull Case (Newton):

Newton sees the upward trend in tech/AI continuing higher, which will lift the broader market into 2027… even if there’s a little chop.

While he expects periods of volatility and some consolidation, easing energy prices and continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure will support further gains into year-end, even in the already-lofty tech/AI trade. With oil retreating sharply from wartime highs and investors increasingly focused on the long-term productivity benefits of AI (economic benefits that are real and not merely a bubble), Newton sees pullbacks as opportunities.

Oil was sent sharply lower on the news of a ceasefire, something Newton sees continuing into year end in the broader energy sector:

Energy could be a "source of real underperformance" in the months ahead.@MarkNewtonCMT of @Fundstrat tells @RemyBlaireNews healthcare and financials are his top picks, with $NKE "starting to finally show some evidence of rallying." pic.twitter.com/p2C988c584

— FINTECH.TV (@FINTECHTVglobal) June 15, 2026

Bear Case (Krinsky):

Krinsky has maintained a more cautious stance as equities push further into historically stretched territory.

While the recent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk appetite and eased inflation concerns, Krinsky has argued recently that elevated valuations, particularly in tech, are due for a correction at some point… especially with a seemingly hawkish fed. Krinsky has also pointed to the recent decoupling of bond yields and oil prices, having risen in tandem until post-peace deal where yields continued rising (possibly Fed-related) while oil tanked.

Recent gains have been driven largely by AI-related technology shares, semiconductors, and the Magnificent Seven, while many other areas of the market have failed to keep pace. Both Newton and Krinsky agree on this, though only one sees it as fuel to further propel markets higher… the other sees a ticking time bomb.

Both panelists rely on technicals and regularly change their market outlooks based on data. Neither guest is a perma-bull or bear… so no broken clocks tonight.

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET on the ZH homepage, X Feed, and Youtube channel to watch live to see how they’re looking at Iran, Fed chair Warsh, and markets.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 17:45

Pentagon Taps Argonne Spinout To Connect Military Supercomputers With Major Clouds

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has awarded Parallel Works, an Illinois-based software company spun out of Argonne National Laboratory, a contract to provide a unified platform that connects military supercomputing centers with secure commercial cloud infrastructure.

Representative stock image of a supercomputer. iStock Photos

The contract, granted under the department's High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP), will allow scientists, engineers, and acquisition professionals across the DoD to access both on-premises and cloud-based computing resources through a single interface. The goal is to speed up the development and deployment of high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) workloads used for defense research and operations.

Parallel Works said its ACTIVATE High Security Platform (HSP) will act as the control plane linking Defense Supercomputing Resource Centers (DSRCs) with commercial cloud services. The platform is designed to let users move workloads across environments while maintaining security requirements for sensitive data.

The company said researchers will be able to test and deploy workloads on emerging cloud infrastructure before those capabilities are integrated into the DoD's supercomputing centers.

Connecting Defense Computing

The platform has been approved at Impact Level 5 (IL5), one of the highest security classifications for non-classified DoD cloud environments. According to the company, it is among a small number of software platforms approved to handle export-controlled workloads, including International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI).

The system is intended to address growing demand for computing power driven by AI development, simulation workloads, and digital modernization programs across the military.

"AI-driven warfare and the ramp to digital modernization are demanding far more model-sharing options than legacy infrastructure can provide," said Keith Obenschain, Chief Technology Officer at HPCMP.

The platform offers on-demand access to cloud compute resources, allowing users to avoid traditional queue delays associated with shared supercomputing systems. It also enables organizations to expand computing capacity by distributing workloads across multiple environments and cloud providers.

Parallel Works said users will have access to cloud infrastructure from providers including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle Cloud.

Accelerating Mission Deployment

As part of the contract rollout, the Naval Research Laboratory has already implemented the platform to support weather forecasting workloads.

According to the company, the system automates forecasting workflows while securely coordinating computing resources across defense and cloud environments. The approach is intended to improve reliability, speed up processing, and help redistribute workloads when demand spikes.

"The HPCMP contract allows our platform to support a broad range of mission-critical HPC and AI workloads across the DOD teams," said Matthew Shaxted, CEO of Parallel Works.

The company said the environment can also serve as a secure testing ground for AI development tools and next-generation cloud architectures before they are adopted within the DoD's existing supercomputing infrastructure.

The contract reflects a broader push by the U.S. military to combine traditional supercomputing resources with commercial cloud services as AI models and data-intensive applications continue to increase computing requirements across defense operations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 17:40