Travelers To Face 3-Hour Delays In Airports: TSA

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Travelers in the United States are facing significant delays at airports due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) stated on March 8 in a post on social media.

“Today, travelers are facing TSA lines of up to nearly 3 hours long at some major airports,” said Lauren Bis, deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at TSA, on X.

This has resulted in “missed flights and massive delays during peak travel.”

Referring to TSA officers, Bis said, “These frontline heroes received only partial paychecks earlier this month and now face their first full missed paycheck, leading to financial hardship, absences, and crippling staffing shortages,” and called on Democrats to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

A recent travel update issued by William P. Hobby Airport in Houston, Texas, shared by DHS, stated that passengers should arrive at least four to five hours before flight departure to allow enough time for TSA screening, with estimated wait times for the screening exceeding 180 minutes or 2.5 hours.

“Houston Airports urges passengers to remain flexible as the government shutdown may impact security operations from one day—and even one shift—to the next,” the post stated, advising travelers to get in touch with their airlines for further support.

The federal shutdown, which began on Feb. 14, is in its 23rd day. DHS funding issues arising from the shutdown have resulted in staff shortages.

On March 5, the House of Representatives passed a bill to fund DHS. The vote was 221–209, with four Democrats joining all Republicans in voting for it.

However, Senate Democrats blocked the funding legislation, which received 51 votes with 45 opposed. Sixty votes are needed for the spending bill to move forward.

The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection, which are part of DHS, are funded through 2029 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. However, TSA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the Coast Guard, are impacted.

Democrats have demanded certain conditions that primarily apply to ICE operations to be met before allowing the funding bill to pass.

These include limiting immigration enforcement to targeted operations, requiring judicial warrants before entering private property, ending what they describe as indiscriminate arrests, verifying citizenship before detention, requiring agents to clearly identify themselves, and restricting operations in locations like churches, schools, and medical facilities.

Flight Delays

As of Sunday at 9:40 p.m. ET, there have been 7,233 flight delays and 673 cancellations at U.S. airports, according to data from FlightAware. On March 7, there were 9,693 delays and 1,339 cancellations.

George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston asked passengers in a post on X to arrive early to make time for TSA clearance.

The Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport, which serves New Orleans and the Gulf Coast Region, said in a March 8 post on X that there were “longer-than-average lines” at the airport due to a shortage of TSA workers.

The airport advised passengers to arrive at least three hours prior to their scheduled departure time to make sure there is enough time for security screening.

The Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport also issued a warning in an X post, saying passengers could expect longer wait times at TSA checkpoints due to staffing constraints and the “residual impacts from two ground stops issued Friday.”

The Austin-Bergstrom International Airport had warned back in a March 5 post on social media that “unanticipated delays” could occur due to the partial federal shutdown.

In a March 8 statement, Chris Sununu, the CEO of Airlines for America, a trade association of leading U.S. airlines, said that TSA officers are facing a $0 paycheck this week and that the DHS shutdown was causing “significant strains” across the aviation system.

At some airports, TSA lines are two hours to three hours long, resulting in flights being delayed and passengers missing their timely travel, the CEO said.

“The shutdown is having very real consequences, and hardworking federal aviation workers, the airline industry and our passengers are being used as a political football once again. This is simply unacceptable and un-American,” Sununu said.

“We are in spring break travel season and expecting record numbers of people to take to the skies. Airlines have done their part to prepare; now Congress and the administration must act with urgency to reach a deal that reopens DHS and ends this shutdown. America’s transportation security workforce is too important to be used as political leverage.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 17:15

Goldman's Global Affairs Chief Warns Of Middle East Spillover Threats

West Texas Intermediate crude futures spiked as high as $111 a barrel on Sunday evening as the deepening Middle East conflict sent panic through oil markets, with supplies from key Gulf producers going offline and the Strait of Hormuz remaining paralyzed into week two.

The key question on some energy desks is whether this energy shock will force President Trump to scale back Operation Epic Fury in a TACO-style retreat by Tuesday with WTI in triple-digit territory. That is hard to say, given that U.S. Central Command stated on X over the weekend that the operation will only accelerate from here.

But BofA's Michael Hartnett suggests a de-escalation of the Iran war in March (read the note). That's because Trump's approval ratings for the economy (40%) and inflation (36%) are back at their lows.

The larger concern now, beyond the energy market, is the risk of a global spillover. As Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, warned investors on the GS Weekend Macro Call, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains cells across multiple emerging market countries and could begin activating them.

"What I am looking for next is that they have meaningful cells in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America, West Africa, and elsewhere. They could hit an embassy, they could hit a consulate, or they could hit a cultural center in any one of the twelve countries they have already attacked," Cohen explained. 

He continued, "They could do something in Europe. They could carry out a meaningful cyberattack. Right now, in the Strait of Hormuz, they have essentially blocked it by driving up insurance costs. They could still mine it. And the Houthis have not done anything yet in the Red Sea. You could also see something involving undersea cables, where 80% of Europe-Asia internet traffic flows."

"So that's kind of what I'm watching for," Cohen told clients. However, he didn't mention in that thought of whether terror fallouts would wash up on the shores of the U.S. Homeland, given the illegal alien invasion by the Democrats under the Biden-Harris administration. 

The U.S. Homeland has already had a few wakeup calls:

• Operation Epic Fury Sparks Homeland Terror Fears Amid Fallout From Biden's Illegal Alien Invasion

• Two Radicals Arrested After Targeting Anti-Islam NYC Protest With Shrapnel-Packed Devices

While JPMorgan analysts are closely watching the risk of Gulf oil shut-ins exceeding 4 million barrels per day by the end of next week, Cohen's role at Goldman is to focus on geopolitical risk, and anyone who heard his webinar this weekend would come away with the view that spillover risks ex-Middle East could soon be a major risk. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 16:50

A Cycle-Low For Public Rectitude: Anything Goes To Maintain Democrats' Matrix Of Moneygrubbing

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Farther Along

Don’t lose the plot. Embrace the suck. This is the world’s hard time, for now. The birth of anything can be a bloody horror. It can even look like death. Don’t be too afraid to see what comes on the other side of this awful spectacle.

So many Americans are rooting and wishing for the Iran war to turn out badly for Western Civ. And why? Because Trump. And why? Because at the same time he is ending Iran’s long-running nuclear blackmail game, he is terminating the rackets of the Democratic Party. The incipient changes in operational order create new categories of winners and losers.

Now you know why Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists run on the same track as America’s Woke-Jacobin-Marxists, including the pitifully deluded wine ladies of posh West LA, Grosse Point, Beacon Hill, Fairfax County, et cetera, whose brains have been hijacked by the cable news demon factory (and their sponsors). Chaos does everything possible to avoid meeting order.

And this is why passing the SAVE Act is as consequential as ridding the Middle East of its chief chaos agent. Do you realize how perfectly insane our country’s election procedure has become? The fraud is titanic and right in your face, and the remedy is so plain and simple. What possible excuse is there to thwart it? Non-citizens have no right to vote. Mail-in ballots are patently subject to chicanery. Vote tabulation machines are demonstrably hackable. 80-percent of Americans know this is the truth. How is there controversy over this?

How? Because among all the broken institutions in our country, Congress is the worst. The Congress of our time is demonstrating that we might not be worthy of governing ourselves. We are at a cycle-low for public rectitude. Anything goes and nothing matters as long as the campaign contributions keep rolling in.

You see how this has been going.

But mark this: we are going to get election reform one way or another. It’s that urgent, and failure to accomplish it by legislation will warrant a national emergency. And when the election machinery has been fixed, we had better do something about the plague of corporate money that runs like poison through our politics because of the Supreme Court’s foolish decision in the 2010 Citizens United case. They decided (by a slim 5-4 majority) that limitless campaign contributions by corporations amounted to free speech under the Constitution.

I will tell you concisely why this was tragically fallacious. Free speech in our country is a God-given right of sovereign citizens. Corporations are not citizens. Corporations don’t have obligations, duties, and responsibilities to the public interest (a.k.a. the common good). Corporations explicitly, by law, have obligations, duties, and responsibilities solely to their share-holders. The interests of corporate share-holders and the nation’s public interest are manifestly oppositional. Perhaps now you can see why this was such a dreadful invitation to political chaos.

So, Mr. Trump, for all his flaws, attempts to bring order out of chaos at home and in global relations, and the agents of chaos mightily resent the shut-down of their precious chaos. With Iran, it has come to fighting fire with fire. It’s unlikely that most of the people in that country seek to become martyrs. The cult of martyrdom is strictly the business of the maniacs who seized power there in 1979, a reign of terror, extended by proxy around the whole Middle East and beyond.

Entwined with Iran’s oil business, and the energy security of many nations, the mullahs inflect the trade of this primary resource with their chaos. The world cannot cope with chaos in the oil trade. The collapsing regime of the mullahs wants to go out turning the entire world into a martyr. Just like the Democratic Party wants to martyr the founding principles of the USA to preserve its matrix of moneygrubbing and power-seeking.

These are two forces that require the most severe discipline and Mr. Trump is acting to impose exactly that. It’s painful to witness, but it must happen if we want to continue the human project as a reality-based enterprise.

So, heed what is at stake in the events unspooling. This is a dark moment in a journey back to daylight. Have faith. As the old American hymn goes: Farther along we’ll know more about it; farther along we’ll understand why.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 16:25

Satellite Data Shows Iran Moving Crude Through Hormuz Chokepoint, Putting Kharg Island In Focus

Ten days into the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury against Iran, which has forced shut-ins at major Gulf oil and gas facilities, disrupted production at key oil fields, sent stockpiles soaring, sparked a global energy crisis (Brent crude hit $119/bbl highs overnight) and severely disrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy chokepoint, new satellite imagery data from TankerTrackers, first cited by Bloomberg, suggests Tehran has recently moved substantial volumes of crude through the waterway.

Geospatial intelligence data from TankerTrackers estimates that Iran-linked tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz have topped nearly 12 million barrels since Feb. 28, the start of Operation Epic Fury. Because the data is delayed, updated satellite imagery may only suggest that the actual figure is much higher.

More like nothing on AIS. https://t.co/MkBEH2lA5f

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) March 8, 2026

TankerTrackers' data is notable because much of the traffic through Hormuz has been paralyzed, sending Brent crude futures to nearly $120/bbl in overnight trading. The firm's data is useful for tracking Iran-linked dark fleet tankers that switch off their transponders.

On X, TankerTrackers reported that a Suezmax tanker that recently went dark by switching off its transponder while transiting the Strait has switched it back on and is now headed to India.

UPDATE: One of the Suezmax tankers has now appeared back on AIS, and is approaching Mumbai, India with a million barrels of Saudi crude oil. Her name is SHENLONG (9379210). There are still a few more which may appear on AIS given that at least one of them is heading to China. pic.twitter.com/MFqnjpkuCe

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) March 9, 2026

Two days before Operation Epic Fury began, we told readers that Iran was rushing crude onto tankers in anticipation of an incoming conflict.

We noted last week that as long as Iranian crude continues to flow, pressure will only build on the Trump administration to address Kharg Island, Tehran's main export hub, where roughly 80% to 90% of the country's crude is loaded onto tankers.

• Kharg Island Back In Focus As Seizure Talk Enters Mainstream Media Debate

• The Oil Island That Could Break Iran

Kharg Island remains one of the IRGC's most important financial lifelines, and if the administration is serious about dismantling the regime's funding pipeline, the export island will become difficult to ignore. Whether that means bombing it, seizing it, or pursuing some other option is a separate question entirely. But we do think the conversation will soon shift to pathways for the US to control Kharg Island.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 15:45

Trump Threatens Harder Strikes If Iran Hits Global Oil Supply, Pledges US 'Excursion' Nearly Complete

Summary:

• Trump pledges Iran 'excursion' going to be ended soon, but warned "Iran will be hit harder" if it starts up again, or if Tehran targets global global oil supplies.

• When asked by reporter, Trump refuses to say if new Ayatollah has a target on his back.

• Trump tells Republican conference it is going to be a short-term excursion in Iran, but he's ready to see the mission through against "evil" Iran.. Says of Tehran, "They should've cried uncle two days ago." And Iran campaign will be "finished pretty quickly".

• Trump tells CBS "the war could be over soon." Oil prices drop on the headline.

• Trump calls choice of new supreme leader ‘a big mistake’

• Lebanon wants direct peace talks with Israel to end fighting but Israeli rejects it, also amid US skepticism: Axios.

• Trump says too soon to talk about seizing Iran's oil but does not rule it out, tells NBC.

• Analyst consensus on question of potentially protracted conflict: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei's Son

• Senator Graham: "The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia."

• Timeline to end Iran war? Trump signals decision will be only after ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu.

• Trump Truth Social post calls for Australia to give Iran National Woman's Soccer team Asylum, but it remains unclear if the whole team is actually requesting it, or if individuals are.

• Iranian official to Al Jazeera: "we are able to continue the war for a long time and there is no room for diplomacy now."

• G7 'closely monitoring' energy markets, 'ready' to take necessary measures, including poss oil stockpile release.

• Younger, reportedly more 'hardline' Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.

• Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!

• Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts - saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.

• Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump "...will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before." But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.

• Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking 'partition': as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: "While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response."

• CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon

* * *

Update(1550ET): A more carefully scripted public address on the Iran war was given by President Trump from Florida late afternoon, in which he reviewed how the 'excursion' in Iran is going. He pledged it's going to be ended soon, but warned "Iran will be hit harder" if it starts up again, or if Tehran targets global global oil supplies.

But on this issue, Trump issued nothing new on a potential move to militarily enter the Strait of Hormuz to ensure free passage, only assuring it will be made "safe". He said military objectives are "pretty well complete" but that there are still some very important targets to be hit. Also interesting is that when asked by a reporter, Trump refused to say if new Ayatollah has a target on his back.

US CENTCOM has meanwhile said that thus far in Operation Epic Fury over 5,000 Iranian targets have been hit, and 50 Iranian naval ships have been destroyed or damaged. 

Footage from Iran right now looks like something out of a movie. I have no idea what they are hitting or how they are hitting, but this is something completely new for me. pic.twitter.com/yHxbEy32BA

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 9, 2026

More on possible timeline or an exit:

Reporter: You called it an excursion. You said it would be over soon. Are you thinking it will be over this week?

Trump: No, but very soon. pic.twitter.com/R4G95Q2O6r

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

* * *

Update(1710ET): Watch President Trump tell a Republican event that he expects it to be a short-term 'excursion' in Iran...

President Trump called the Iran war a “short-term excursion.”

Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/mwDx0EikXM

— AF Post (@AFpost) March 9, 2026

Update(1545ET): President Trump just told CBS News that he believes the US-Israeli war with Iran is "very far ahead of schedule" and so it could be over soon. Considering this whole thing started with talk of a mere four day timeline, then quickly morphed to four or five weeks, before Hegseth declared eight weeks would be needed... is this the White House preparing for a quick draw down and off ramp? Here's what Trump told CBS by phone:

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much," he said. "They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense."

Oil rapidly dropped... down 30% from overnight highs:

Offramp brewing? Notice below there's now no mention of removing the regime, and especially important is no mention of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. Additionally, no mention of destroying Iran's ability to project power via proxy forces.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The goals of the mission against the Iranian regime are clear:
- Destroy their ability to launch missiles
- Destroy factories making these missiles
- Destroy their navy pic.twitter.com/KPUpMGNtDf

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 9, 2026

TRUMP JUST SAID THE WAR COULD SOON BE OVER pic.twitter.com/oJeyEjERrc

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) March 9, 2026

* * *

Update(1240ET): Iran on Monday is seeking to showcase its continuity and 'stability' of government after a week of heavy US-Israeli bombardment failed to produce regime change. Instead, Tehran is vowing to fight back, saying it can keep the war going for as long as needed. Analysts have pointed out Iran needs to inflict a cost on the US and Israel, fearing it will just be attacked again somewhere down the line, even if years from now. 

And yet, Trump admin officials have been signaling the American public there won't be a protracted war. But on this big looming question, The Wall Street Journal is out Monday with the following ominous headline suggesting a lengthy conflict ahead: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei's Son...

The elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, a conservative long close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, shows that Trump’s efforts so far to cow the regime into surrender have failed. It also appears to have put hard-liners in firm control of the country, with moderate and reformist factions long marginalized. The 56-year old Khamenei is expected to take a confrontational stance toward the West.

His appointment also shows that Iran won’t acquiesce to Trump’s demand that he approve the country’s new top cleric. Trump told Axios last week that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.”

The younger Khamenei’s ascendance “suggests the continuation of the same old strategy: repression at home and resistance internationally,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. 

There remains the question of if US and Israeli goals and objectives are truly aligned on the Iran war. Some of Trump's latest remarks are cause for concern, and highlight the aforementioned question: "Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it. We've worked together. We've destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel," Trump asserted.

The President indicated that he would keep the ultimate prerogative but while consulting directly with Netanyahu. "I think it's mutual, a little bit. We've been talking. I'll make a decision at the right time, but everything's going to be taken into account." Some admin officials are likely looking for a quick exit ramp, which would probably involve a politically expedient moment to declare 'victory' and get out. But will the Israelis cooperate when/if that moment comes?

Some establishment thinktanks in the US are meanwhile taking note that the administration is struggling with an exit strategy. For example, via the NY-based Soufan Center:

Yet, experts and global officials are quick to point out that all layers of Iran’s existing power structure oppose U.S. influence in Iran and the broader region. Regime officials differ only by degree, and the opportunities to mimic the transition achieved in Venezuela are narrow. When addressing reports last week that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly announced Supreme Leader, was favored to succeed his father, Trump said the pick would be “unacceptable.” Axios quoted him as saying: “We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran…They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela.” 

⚡️Massive Israeli-U.S airstrikes on Sarandaj, Iran pic.twitter.com/6SNOYb11hU

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

* * *

Iran's military and political leadership has reportedly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who as we reported was named Sunday to replace his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. The relatively young 56-year old is not some Delcy Rodriguez character, as he's a military veteran of the eight year Iran-Iraq war and saw his wife Zahra killed in an Israeli airstrike. He's said to be the favored IRGC choice and more hardline than his father Ali Khamenei.

The United States and Israel continue to unleash their mass bombing campaign across Iran, with explosions reported in Qom and Tehran hours after weekend Israeli strikes on oil facilities sent toxic smoke and even oil-infused rain across the Iranian capital. There's been emerging reports suggesting there's been some divergence or even distance on war aims and strategy between the US and Israel; however, this could also simply be war propaganda put out by officials - and yet probably President Trump doesn't like to see oil go up in flames.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei of course has a different theory. He said in a fresh statement that the attacks aim "at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches." He likely has Syria in mind, which Iran propped up on support of Assad for over a decade, but which has been permanently fractured, weakened, and a once significant Russian-supplied anti-air defense and missile arsenal utterly destroyed. The Syria model is something Israeli policy makers have talked about for decades, and Israel appears to be willing to smash an entire Iranian nation of 90+ million.

AFP via Getty Images

With this in mind, Baghaei emphasized there's no halting the fight at this stage: "While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response," he said Monday. Trump recently said operations won't cease until there's "unconditional surrender" by Iran.

Despite the massive scale of Israeli and American firepower, the strikes clearly have not dismantled the regime's core structures, arranged precisely to endure such external shocks and maintain power. There's also not yet been any clear examples of elite fractures. 

"We’re not seeing it, and we’re unlikely to see it," Alan Eyre, a Farsi-speaking former diplomat who served on the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran, told The Wall Street Journal. "The IRGC and other elites benefit the most from the status quo and would rather fight than switch."

The same publication reviews that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, created in 1979 to safeguard the Islamic revolutionary system, includes about 190,000 active-duty troops. It is the most elite core defense perimeter running the war and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, even bypassing Iran's conventional armed forces. In addition to this, there's a sort of domestic IRGC internal security force over the country - roughly 600,000 irregular Basij militia members which can mobilize.

Day 9: Iran war is wider and longer:
— new, harder line leader in Iran
— new leader promises “new phase”
— 130+ drones by Iran last 24 hours
— US talking “limited” ground forces
—desalination hit in Bahrain
— oil $102, 4 yr high
— Americans disapprove, 59% v 41%
— Russian… pic.twitter.com/NaL8yvzEtr

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 9, 2026

At a moment oil prices have surged more than 25% to kick off the week, their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions spread through global markets due to the expanding war - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran would only contemplate a ceasefire for a permanent end to the war on its terms.

He reminded the West that Iran did accept a ceasefire which ended the 12-war in June. Of course, Iran is currently trying to inflict as much pain as possible on the US and Israel before such a potential end - also as Israel continues to experience rare severe damage to its cities, bases and infrastructure from ongoing ballistic missile attacks. On the question of an offramp, below are a couple of unconfirmed developments and headlines:

—Iran are seeking peace talks with the US with Qatar, Oman & Italy involved in mediation: CNN/News18

—Israeli Defense Officials Start to Ask How the Iran War Ends: WAPO ("A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran – and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.")

The Foreign Ministry's Baghaei has further addressed President Trump's ultra-provocative suggestion that Iran's borders could change. Asked last week whether Iran's map would look the same after the war, Trump said, "That I can’t tell you. Probably not."

Baghaei blasted Trump for treating the world like a real estate deal: "The US president and others have made statements about many parts of the world – from Canada to other countries – as if the entire planet were prime real estate and governments were merely real estate agencies," the FM spokesman said. "For the people of Iran, the map of the country represents everything that every Iranian is proud of and is willing to sacrifice their life to protect."

As for 'sacrifice' - but on the US side of things, an eighth American soldier has now been confirmed killed, one day after Trump oversaw a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base. Interestingly Fox News has come under fire for its mishandling of the coverage.

Trump after seeing oil prices:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World,

ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY! pic.twitter.com/GctyxuO6Up

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

Current mass WH messaging...

The message just went out. “Short term pain, for long term gain.”

pic.twitter.com/DVZt2dolIi

— Clayton Morris (@ClaytonMorris) March 9, 2026

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of continuing attacks against the kingdom due to "baseless claims" - including allegations that fighter jets and refueling aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia were preparing to join the war. This after on Saturday Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to Arab Gulf states and said Tehran would stop striking neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory; however, those attacks have not actually appeared to stop - as the consensus is that the elite IRGC is in charge, and there's likely even autonomy of command decisions with units under emergency war orders.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry said Monday of Pezeshkian's 'apology' that Iran "has not reflected that statement in practice." It laid out that Iran has "continued its attacks based on baseless claims that are not grounded in fact, including allegations that the Kingdom had previously clarified were false, namely the claim that fighter jets and refueling aircraft had departed from the Kingdom to participate in the war."

⚡️Bahrain:The moment the fire broke out in the fuel tanks of BAPCO Energy Company after it was targeted by a swarm of Iranian drones. pic.twitter.com/wHh8aCxkxt

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

Saudi officials have said its aircraft patrols were purely defensive. "The continued Iranian attacks represent further escalation, with significant implications for bilateral relations both now and in the future," the ministry said.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, thick smoke has been seen rising from the direction of the Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain, according to a witness cited in Al Jazeera and other reports. Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone strike on the island of Sitra, whihc injured 32 people overnight. Gulf states continue generally reporting new strikes as Iran carries out retaliatory attacks across the region - after Tehran's own oil and fuel storage sites have been blown up in major weekend attacks.

Israel's 'second front' in Lebanon also continues to escalate, as multiple Israeli airstrikes struck the southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday, including at least one targeting Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which is a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, according to Lebanon's National News Agency.

Hezbollah said Monday that it is busy fighting Israeli forces that landed in eastern Lebanon by helicopter across the Syrian border, the second such operation since the start of the latest conflict with Israel. There's already a ground war ongoing in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah described said it detected "the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters" from the Syrian side of the border in eastern Lebanon, an area long under Hezbollah influence.

Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly plan to travel to Israel on Tuesday to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who is seen as close to the Israeli government. The trip hasn't been officially confirmed, however.

Footage from northeast Tehran, oil and energy sites continue to burn:

⚡️ Northeast Tehran pic.twitter.com/WT2GN9VHao

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 9, 2026

As for 'what's next' - escalation or offramp... the following from Bloomberg suggests there could be a gateway to ground troops if things take an escalatory war path: "Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near bomb-grade uranium, according to diplomats. He told the Times of Israel that a decision on when to end the war will also involve Benjamin Netanyahu," Bloomberg reviews of prior weekend reporting.

This as there are claims that Washington and Tel Aviv don't see eye to eye on ultimate war aims and strategy: "Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge." But all of this fresh reporting of 'distance' between the close allies who are executing Trump's Operation Epic Fury could by design be meant to create artificial distance between the president and what might prove to be an unpopular war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 15:45

Even Dems Are Questioning Rep. Swalwell's Eligibility To Run For Governor

Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA,

Rep. Eric Swalwell has long maintained his primary residence in Washington, D.C., despite representing large portions of California in Congress. Now that he is running for California governor, his apparent on-paper-only California residency is under scrutiny - even from fellow Democrats. 

Eric Swalwell / IMAGE: Evening Standard via YouTube

Tom Steyer, a left-wing billionaire donor who is also running for the Democratic nomination for governor, called on California Secretary of State Shirley Weber to enforce the state’s residency requirements. 

Steyer’s campaign wrote to Shirley that Swalwell “appears to live in California on paper only” and is “unlikely to meet the basic residency requirements to run for Governor.” 

In a 55-page letter, Steyer’s attorneys argued that Swalwell has repeatedly failed to list a home address in campaign documents. 

For instance, Swalwell listed a law firm’s address in Sacramento as his address on a Candidate Intention Statement. 

Swalwell also designated his Eckington address in Washington, D.C., at 209 S Street NE as his principal residence in a deed of trust. 

Instead, Swalwell lists a California address on his voter registration form, but deed records do not show that he actually owns the property. 

The letter argued that “public records databases do not indicate Swalwell is a resident at that address.” 

The home is owned by a relative of Swalwell’s former deputy chief of staff and longtime mentor, Tim Sbranti. 

When Swalwell is in California, he stays in San Francisco hotels, according to campaign finance records. 

Steyer’s letter is not the first time Swalwell has faced accusations that he does not actually reside in California. In January, Swalwell was sued over his D.C. residency, with the lawsuit alleging that he does not live in the state and is unqualified to run for governor. 

“Tom Steyer has sunk to a new low, peddling far-right MAGA conspiracy theorist Joel Gilbert’s tired talking points. Gilbert is a quack who has published that Bruce Lee is alive and Paul McCartney is dead,” a spokesperson for Swalwell’s campaign said in remarks to Politico.  

“Billionaire Steyer is personally going after a public servant who has long rented in his East Bay Congressional district. California’s renters don’t need to be shamed by an out-of-touch billionaire,” the campaign added. 

In a statement, the California Secretary of State’s office said candidates will only appear on the ballot “if they meet the candidate qualifications and requirements outlined in the 2026 California Election Guide.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 15:25

Iran Hails Deadly Cluster Bomb Attack On Central Israel: 'First Wave Under New Ayatollah'

Since the start of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, Israel has suffered some rare mass casualty events and major destruction of sectors of its cities, especially in Tel Aviv.

The official death toll stands at eleven civilians killed, and dozens wounded and injured; while Israel's military just suffered two troop deaths in southern Lebanon.

The most devastating single incident was when nine people were killed in an Iranian missile strike on Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem on March 1, amid Iran's retaliatory action.

On Monday there are widespread reports of another significant deadly missile impact in the heart of Israel. Local media reports that at least one person was killed and two others seriously wounded after an Iranian missile carrying a cluster warhead struck central Israel on Monday.

Illustrative: Cluster bomb open source image.

Already there's been evidence of advanced hypersonic missiles sent on Israel, but cluster munitions by Iran may be something 'new' deployed in the war with Israel.

Times of Israel describes that the cluster warhead hit at least six locations across central Israel, including Yehud, Or Yehuda, Holon, and Bat Yam. One man was killed and another critically wounded at a construction site in Yehud, while a third man was seriously wounded in Or Yehuda, medical officials have said.

Large craters, and damage to area buildings and cars were witnessed at these scenes - and the diffusion of shrapnel. Shrapnel from these cluster attacks is among the most dangerous aspects to the warhead, which is banned across many countries according to international treaties.

"At the construction site, two men in their 40s were critically hurt by shrapnel, with one succumbing to his wounds, Magen David Adom said. The second man was taken to a hospital," Times of Israel detailed.

Iran's state broadcaster IRIB praised the strike, announcing that the country's armed forces launched its "first wave of missiles under Mojtaba Khamenei towards occupied territories" - in reference to the newly appointed leader chosen Sunday to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei.

Iranian cluster munition in central Israel, part of a fresh wave of ballistic missile attacks launched by Iran in retaliation amid the escalating U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict. pic.twitter.com/cLtVBI2vbV

— NextMinute News (@nextminutenews7) March 9, 2026

Some open source analysts have pointed out that cluster bombs have been used since nearly the start of the war - but Monday's incident appears the first instance resulting in serious casualties.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 15:05

The Real Threat Is Artificial Credit, Not Artificial Intelligence

Authored by George Ford Smith via the Mises Institute,

Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming one of the most capital-intensive industries in history. Consider: Semiconductor fabrication plants cost tens of billions of dollars. Massive data centers consume extraordinary amounts of electricity, sending power bills soaring. Specialized engineering talent commands premium wages. (Although the median salary for an AI professional is $160K annually, the top 1 percent of AI researchers receive compensation packages exceeding $1 million). Global supply chains must coordinate rare materials, precision manufacturing, and complex infrastructure.

Yet discussions about artificial intelligence almost never address the most important economic variable shaping its development: money.

From an Austrian perspective, the future of artificial intelligence ties directly to the monetary system that finances it. Whether AI produces sustainable prosperity or another boom-bust cycle depends less on algorithms than on interest rates.

As we’ve seen throughout history, interest rates in a fractional-reserve banking system trend ever lower when a new technology gets underway. This generates the illusion of prosperity called a boom, followed inevitably by a bust.

As a reminder of what is meant by a “bust,” keep in mind the figure $16.2 trillion—“The total net worth American households lost between 2007 and 2009 of the Great Recession.”

Artificial intelligence is best understood economically as a higher-order capital good—a tool that enhances the productivity of human performance. Like machinery during the Industrial Revolution or computers in the late twentieth century, AI operates within a time-structured production process involving multiple stages before consumer goods emerge. Here’s how ChatGPT works as a consumer good, for example, providing an indispensable research tool for millions.

Nobel laureate F.A. Hayek emphasized that production requires coordination of dispersed knowledge across time. Interest rates serve as the critical signal aligning savings with investment. When that signal is distorted, the capital structure becomes misaligned.

Artificial intelligence offers super-advanced intellectual performance, but as a capital good is still subject to interest rate signals. Economically, under our central bank fiat system, distorted interest rates intensifies capital misalignment.

The Neglected Relevance of the Monetary System

The current AI boom is unfolding after more than a decade of unprecedented monetary expansion. Following the 2008 financial crisis—and again after 2020—the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet dramatically while maintaining near-zero interest rates for extended periods. The Fed has been unwinding since its April 2022 peak, but is still 59 percent above pre-pandemic levels.

In the world of Federal Reserve economics, cheap credit is a necessary fuel for economic development. But as Mises warned,

What induces an entrepreneur to embark upon definite projects is neither high prices nor low prices as such, but a discrepancy between the costs of production, inclusive of interest on the capital required, and the anticipated prices of the products. A lowering of the gross market rate of interest as brought about by credit expansion always has the effect of making some projects appear profitable which did not appear so before. (emphasis added)

When the Fed artificially suppresses interest rates, entrepreneurs undertake projects that appear profitable but cannot be sustained once monetary conditions change. This is the core of Austrian business cycle theory: Credit expansion causes malinvestment.

Artificial intelligence investment is particularly vulnerable to this dynamic because it involves long time horizons, uncertain demand, and enormous upfront capital requirements.

Warning Signs of Malinvestment

Several familiar signals are already visible:

• Massive capital flows into AI startups with uncertain revenue models, with AI capturing “close to 50% of all global funding in 2025, up from 34 percent in 2024.”
• Extraordinary valuations driven by future expectations rather than present earnings
• Rapid expansion of data center infrastructure ahead of proven demand, with global capacity expected to double by 2030
• Energy investment justified primarily by projected AI growth

Technological revolutions often coincide with speculative manias. The railroad booms of the nineteenth century, the stock market excesses of the 1920s, the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, and the housing boom before 2008 all followed this pattern. In each case, the technology survived, while the speculative capital structure collapsed. Artificial intelligence may follow a similar trajectory if monetary conditions continue to distort investment signals. As long as money is under monopoly control of political appointees instead of the free market, distortion is guaranteed.

Gold historically constrained credit expansion because banks could not create unlimited claims without risking the wrath of defrauded depositors. Interest rates reflected real savings more accurately, and investment discipline was stronger.

Under a monetary system anchored by market forces rather than quarreling politicians, artificial intelligence would develop in a manner more closely aligned with genuine demand and less vulnerable to speculative collapse.

Conclusion

Artificial intelligence is likely to become the most transformative technology in history, but under the auspices of a money-printing counterfeiter such as the Federal Reserve it’s certain to create massive economic problems. The real threat is artificial credit, not artificial intelligence.

People rightfully fear losing their jobs. What actually threatens workers, though, is not automation but monetary distortion. When credit expansion drives speculative booms, capital is misdirected into unsustainable ventures. When the correction arrives, workers suffer the consequences of decisions made far above them. And they tend to direct their anger at the market, rather than the politically-influenced decision makers.

Ron Paul was right. We need to end the Fed and end the property rights violations of fractional reserve banking.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 14:45

Democrats Sue Trump Over Tariff Workaround

A coalition of 24 Democratic attorneys general and governors filed a lawsuit Thursday in the U.S. Court of International Trade, targeting President Trump's newly imposed global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania joined as plaintiffs since both states have Republican attorneys general, leaving the governors to step in themselves.

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes, left, and Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield outside the Supreme Court in November. They are helping lead a lawsuit against Trump administration tariffs. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP)

The lawsuit, led by attorneys general from Oregon, New York, California, and Arizona - with 18 additional states piling on - argues Trump invented a legal pretext to keep tariffs alive after the Supreme Court handed him a 6-3 defeat on tariffs last month.

That ruling held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not authorize tariff-setting, because "regulate" does not encompass taxing power. 

Trump signed Proclamation No. 11012 the same day, slapping a 10 percent ad valorem tariff on most worldwide imports effective February 24 under Section 122, a statute that had never been invoked in the 52 years since its enactment. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent confirmed on March 4 that the rate would climb to 15 percent — the statutory ceiling — within the week.

"The President is trying to exploit a little-known statute as a means for his tariffs and is again proceeding unlawfully," said California Attorney Rob Bonta.

The named defendants include President Trump in his official capacity, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Secretary. Kristi Noem, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and Commissioner Rodney S. Scott. Plaintiffs are also requesting a three-judge panel given the constitutional stakes under 28 U.S.C. § 255. 

Despite the lawsuit, it has been clear since that, despite the Supreme Court ruling saying that Trump couldn’t implement tariffs under IEEPA, he had other statutes under which he could.

"The administration has other tools in its toolbox," Constitutional law scholar Jonathan Turley told Fox News last month after the Supreme Court ruling. "It can actually impose tariffs under other statutes, so this fight is hardly over for the administration when it comes to tariffs." 

Johnathan Turley after SCOTUS rules against Trump tariffs,

"The administration has other tools in its toolbox. It can actually impose tariffs under other statutes"pic.twitter.com/4EXmW1d1Gh

— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) February 20, 2026

With that in mind, the White House does not seem rattled by the lawsuit.

 "The President is utilizing the authority bestowed upon him by Congress to tackle fundamental international payment issues and to address the significant balance-of-payments deficits our country is facing," spokesperson Kush Desai said. "The Administration will robustly defend the President's actions in court."

This wouldn’t be the first time an administration found ways around a Supreme Court ruling against it.

In June 2023, a 6-3 Supreme Court majority struck down the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness program in Biden v. Nebraska, ruling the administration had overstepped its authority by attempting to cancel roughly $400 billion in federal debt without explicit congressional authorization. 

Biden's response was to keep going anyway. 

His administration pursued alternative legal pathways to deliver partial relief, dismissing objections as political obstruction. In fact, Joe Biden used to brag about how he was defying the Supreme Court. "Early in my term, I announced a major plan to provide millions of working families with debt relief for their college student debt," Biden said. "Tens of millions of people in debt were literally about to be canceled in debts. But my MAGA Republican friends in the Congress, elected officials and special interests stepped in and sued us. And the Supreme Court blocked it. But that didn’t stop me."

The spectacle of 24 Democratic officials filing an emergency lawsuit over a president finding a new statutory route after a court loss, while their own party spent two years celebrating exactly that maneuver, is typical of the Democratic Party. Democrats also have come out in opposition to Trump’s bombing of Iran without congressional approval, despite their widespread approval of similar bombing campaigns without congressional approval by both Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 14:25

Pentagon, FAA Will Conduct Anti-Drone Laser Tests In New Mexico

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

The Pentagon and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) agreed to conduct an anti-drone “high-energy laser test” in New Mexico over the weekend.

The announcement comes a little more than a week after the FAA had to suddenly close airspace around Fort Hancock, Texas, because of what the agency at the time called “special security reasons.”

The Department of War (DOW) shot what it thought was a “seemingly threatening” drone flying within military airspace, the Pentagon, the FAA, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a joint statement at the time.

A House committee stated that the FAA’s closure resulted from the Pentagon using a “high risk counter-unmanned aircraft system” to shoot down a CBP drone operating near the U.S.–Mexico border.

The incident, along with another Pentagon drone incursion the same month, faced criticism in Congress. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), the ranking Democrat member on the Senate Aviation Subcommittee, called for an independent investigation into the incidents.

Following congressional pushback, the Pentagon is now conducting anti-drone tests at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico alongside its partners at the FAA.

On March 6, the U.S. military stated that its Joint Interagency Task Force 401 and the FAA will conduct a “high-energy laser test” from March 7 through March 8.

“This upcoming event will specifically address FAA safety concerns while gathering data about the laser’s material effects on aircraft surrogates, validating the functionality of automated safety shut-off systems, and informing analyses for aircrew eye safety,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

The military stated that the test is part of a “long-term, multi-year partnership” between it and the FAA to ensure that counter-drone technology is “safely integrated into the national airspace.” It’s a continuation of previous military testing done over the past few decades, according to the Pentagon.

The interagency effort will include representatives from the Energy Department, National Nuclear Security Administration, Homeland Security Department, CBP, and the New Mexico National Guard attending the test in New Mexico over the weekend.

The Pentagon stated that the test underscores a federal effort to combat drone threats while maintaining sovereignty and safety in the national airspace.

“This is a critical step in making sure our warfighters have the most advanced tools to defend the homeland,” U.S. Army Brigadier General Matt Ross said in a statement.

“By working hand-in-hand with the FAA and our interagency partners, we are ensuring that these cutting-edge capabilities are safe, effective, and ready to protect Americans from emerging drone threats.”

The FAA said in a statement to The Epoch Times that it appreciates “coordination with the Department of War to help ensure public safety.”

“The FAA and DOW are working with interagency partners to address emerging threats posed by unmanned aircraft systems while maintaining the safety of the National Airspace System,” the agency stated.

Ranking Democrats on the House committees on Transportation and Infrastructure and Homeland Security criticized the Pentagon for the drone shoot-down incident last month.

“Our heads are exploding over the news that [Pentagon] reportedly shot down a Customs and Border Protection drone using a high risk counter-unmanned aircraft system,” Reps. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), Bennie G. Thompson (D-Miss.), and André Carson (D-Ind.) said in a joint statement.

“We said months ago that the White House’s decision to sidestep a bipartisan, tri-committee bill to appropriately train C-UAS operators and address the lack of coordination between the Pentagon, [Department of Homeland Security], and the FAA was a short-sighted idea.”

The Pentagon is required to formally notify the FAA whenever it conducts any counter-drone operations within U.S. airspace.

The FAA’s closure of airspace near Fort Hancock is scheduled to last until June 24.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 14:05

NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Dropped To 1 Year Low Ahead Of Iran War Amid Improving Household Finances

While the latest NY Fed consumer expectations report shows sentiment from February, and does not account for the surge in oil prices as a result of the Iran war, the trend continues to be supportive which would be good news for the US economy if the current energy price spikes proves to be transitory. 

In what was the calm before the Persian Gulf storm, ​Americans’ inflation expectations eased further back in February amid mixed views on the state of the ‌job market and current and future finances. Specifically, the expected level of inflation a year from now dropped to 3% from 3.1% in January, and the lowest since the start of 2025 while the projected level of inflation three and five ​years from now held steady at 3%.

The New York Fed survey, released Monday, was conducted between February 2-28. ​As such, it does not capture the public’s reaction to surging oil prices that are the ⁠result of the Iran war, which has massively disrupted global energy supplies and sent crude over $100.

Huge increases seen thus far in ​energy prices are almost certain to drive up already high levels of overall inflation and stand a good chance of ​pushing the public toward a less benign view on the outlook for price pressures over coming years, assuming the price increase sticks and there is no prompt resolution to the war.

That would present a challenging environment for the Fed, which has been contending with high levels of inflation for years, the result of its post-covid policy error which has pushed inflation above the Fed's 2% target for 60 moinths. Officials agree that where price pressures are expected to go exerts a strong influence on where ​they stand now, so if the oil shock creates expectations of higher price pressures, that could complicate efforts to get inflation back to ‌target. Then again, the Fed has traditionally ignored one-time shocks which suggests that the Iran shock will only matter if it lasts a longer period of time. Earlier today, we pointed out that according to the Fed’s FRB/US model, a $20/bbl increase in oil prices only increases unemployment by about 2bps and has almost no impact on core PCE inflation

Turning to specific items, over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 4.09%; food prices to rise 5.27%; medical costs to rise 9.72%; the price of a college education to rise 9.14%; rent prices to rise 5.88%

The ⁠New York Fed survey also found relative calm on the hiring front during February: amid generally lackluster job reports, survey respondents said last month they project a lower future unemployment rate and a lower prospect of losing a job relative to January.

Specifically, the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 13.8%, falling slightly below the trailing 12-month average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 15.9%, a new series low.

In more good news for the labor market, the mean unemployment expectations -or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now -decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 39.9%.

But respondents also said last month finding new work would ​be harder than what they thought ​at the start of ⁠the year: the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 44.0%, just slightly above the series low reached in December 2025

There was more good news on the household finance side: perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago, and a larger share reporting they were better off. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations remained steady, with the net share of households reporting expecting a worse versus better situation a year from now remaining relatively unchanged. 

In more good news, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 2.1% points to 11.6%, its lowest level since February 2024.

And while respondents found that credit was harder to get in February compared to January, they believe it would be easier to get in the future. They were more ​upbeat about current finances in February versus the prior month, while holding steady views about ​the future state ⁠of their finances.

What was rather notable is that 37.9% of respondents expect stocks to be higher one year from now, a number that has barely budged in recent years.

On Friday, the University of Michigan will release its latest report on consumer sentiment and that report may offer the most up to date view on how the public is pricing the energy surge into its outlook for inflation.

Deutsche Bank ⁠economists said ​in a note Monday that U.S. oil production can blunt the impact ​of global price surges. But they added, “inflation has been too high for too long, and the latest data calls into question how much disinflation can ​reasonably be expected, especially if there are increases in measures of inflation expectations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 13:45

Ending Iran War Will Be Mutual Decision With Israel, Trump Says

Authored by Victoria Freedman via The EPoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump on March 8 said the decision on when to end the Iran War will be a mutual one that he will make with input from Israel.

“I think it’s mutual ... a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account,” Trump told The Times of Israel in a telephone interview.

Asked whether he thought it would be necessary for Israel to continue their campaign even after the United States decides to stop its airstrikes, the U.S. president said, “I don’t think it’s going to be necessary.”

Trump also said that Iran was “going to destroy Israel and everything else around it,” adding, “we’ve worked together [with Israel]. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel.”

On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel jointly launched an attack on Iran, with the Islamic Republic’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, being killed in the first salvo of the war.

On March 9, the Iranian regime chose Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the next leader.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a March 4 post on X that whoever is appointed to replace the deceased Iranian leader “will be an unequivocal target for elimination.”

“[Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] and I have instructed the [Israel Defense Forces] to prepare and act by all means to carry out the mission as an integral part of the objectives of Operation ‘Lion’s Roar,’” Katz said, using Israel’s term for the military offensive against Iran and its proxies.

Trump similarly told ABC News on March 8 that Iran’s next leader is “not going to last long” if he does not get approval from the United States.

No Expansion of Objectives

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on March 6 that Washington expects Operation Epic Fury “to last four to six weeks” to achieve its objectives, “and we are well on our way to achieving those objectives.”

Leavitt told reporters during a press briefing outside the White House that, during the operation to date, more than 30 Iranian vessels and ships have been sunk and that the Iranian navy has “been deemed combat ineffective.”

She added that the United States has taken out the ballistic missile threat posed by Iran, and that in six days since the war started, “retaliatory ballistic missile strikes from Iran are now down 90 percent.”

“Ultimately, the president has made it very clear: He wants to take out the threat of Iran to the United States, and Operation Epic Fury as well on its way to doing that.”

Operation Epic Fury is the name for the United States’s offensive against Iran.

Last week, the Pentagon said there is no expansion of military objectives in Iran and that the operation was moving onto its next phase.

Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, said on March 5 during a news briefing at U.S. Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida, that the next objective is to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile industrial base.

“We’re not just hitting what they have—we’re destroying their ability to rebuild,” Cooper said. “As we transition to the next phase of this operation, we will systemically dismantle Iran’s missile production capability for the future, and that’s absolutely in progress.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 12:45

US Orders Americans Out Of Southeast Turkey After Reports Of CIA Arming Kurds

Within the opening days of the Iran-US-Israel war, the State Department urged Americans across 14 countries in the Middle East region to urgently depart. There's since been an ongoing US government facilitated evacuation effort. Private tour groups have also been coordinating to get people out.

For example, stranded tourists in Israel have rushed south, across the Egyptian border on buses, where they can safely arrange flights from Cairo. For the first time of the war, Turkey has just been added to the list - a rarity given it has long been viewed as a place of stability and is a prime tourist destination. 

via Duvar English

But the new State Department travel advisory has yet to be extended over the whole of the country, instead Americans are being warned not to visit southeast Turkey and for anyone currently there to depart immediately.

It warns of the potential terrorism, armed conflict, and arbitrary detentions, according to the advisory - at a moment bombs between Iran, Israel, the US and Gulf countries continue to fly. And importantly, a staff draw down:

Washington has advised non-essential staff to leave its consulate near the southern Turkish city of Adana near a key NATO base and ordered US citizens to leave “southeast Turkey,” the US embassy to Ankara said Monday.

There are American troops at several bases in Turkey, particularly at NATO's major Incirlik air base, near Adana

"On March 9, 2026, the Department of State ordered non-emergency US government employees and US government employee family members to leave Consulate General Adana due to the safety risks," the US embassy said on X.

It further declared that "Americans in southeast Turkey are strongly encouraged to depart now."

Last week saw a couple of very serious developments which impact Turkey. First, a ballistic missile from Iran flew over the large Asia minor country and was intercepted by NATO defenses in the Mediterranean.

Also, days ago there was an avalanche of global headlines alleging the CIA was preparing Kurdish groups based in Iraq for a cross-border attack on Iran.

Some of these are the very groups Turkey has long been bombing just across its eastern border in northern Iraq. While Iraq as well as the Iraqi Kurdistan government of the north denied that this was happening - the alleged plan has the potential to destabilize part of southeast Turkey.

U.S. Embassy in Ankara has ordered all non-essential personnel to leave its consulate in Adana, located near NATO's Incirlik Air Base. It has also urged Americans to leave southeastern Turkey immediately. https://t.co/ImrW3rRWvi

— OSINT Spectator (@osintspectator) March 9, 2026

The State Dept alert could be alluding to the tense geopolitical situation with the Kurds in the following: "Terrorists may attack tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets, malls, hotels, and places of worship," the advisory warned.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 12:25

Gigantic US Error Or All Part Of A Plan?

Via Rabobank,

Anybody thinking US payrolls, even at -92K, matters much in the current environment is probably at the head of the queue to be replaced by an AI soon. That data series is always volatile and 2.5m undocumented workers are estimated to have left the US since Trump was re-elected: 394K foreign-born workers lost their jobs in the reported month while the native-born series rose 877K, albeit after a shocking 2.5m drop of its own the month before. How can anyone take these numbers seriously even if the underlying signal is deadly serious?

This is eclipsed by Brent oil this morning trading over $110 with WTI at $107: both look to be going exponential, perhaps even opening up the $150 scenario the GCC warn of. Worse, that doesn’t account for more dramatic moves in diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, key chemicals like sulphur, and gases like helium, without which not a lot moves in the industrial economy, grows in the agricultural economy, or is produced in terms of metals like copper and tech goods like chips.

In short, this is now starting to look like a potential combination of the 1973 post-Yom Kippur War oil shock, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War commodity shock, and the 2020-21 Covid supply chain shock. 

The longer this goes on, the more exponential the damage becomes in a domino effect, which is exactly what oil is now showing to a market that saw some takes last week that ‘things could be a lot worse.’ Well, now they are: and if we are still in the same position this time next week, things could be quite terrifying.

Yet while credible estimates today are that if all fighting were to suddenly cease, it would take two weeks to start to right the ship and a further two months to get back to normal, what we should call Gulf War 3 is showing many signs of widening its geography and escalating within it.

On geography: even if Trump is reportedly now against using the Kurds as a military wedge against Tehran (perhaps due to Turkish opposition), Azerbaijan, which was recently struck by Iran, is another matter. So is Pakistan, which has underlined its mutual defence pact with the Saudis. EU member Cyprus has reported that the drone which struck it was fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon, and was a Russian Shaheed model, not an Iranian one. Russia has also openly said that it isn’t neutral in this conflict, and favours Iran, alongside reports that it’s providing Tehran with data to help it strike its opponents. In Lebanon, Israeli actions are intensifying.

On escalation: after an apology to its neighbours from Iran’s president was rebuffed by the IRGC, the weekend saw strikes on energy facilities against both sides, where Iran came off worse. Moreover, we saw several reports of attacks on desalination plants: if those critical facilities were to go in the region, much of its population would have to as well. Trump is reportedly weighing the introduction of special forces ground troops into Iran, while a third carrier strike group is now on the way. Moreover, Tehran has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the former Supreme Leader, to replace him. He is clearly unacceptable to both the US and Israel and reflects the hardest of lines from the regime rather than any possible compromise, Venezuela style.

It’s also time to take a deep breath and note energy expert Anas Alhajji is asking if this is a gigantic US error or part of a plan. 

I’d flagged 2026, besides telling 2025 to “hold my beer”, was logically going to see the US use its military to disrupt upstream supply chains heading to China to counterbalance the downstream and rare-earths midstream (i.e., processing) dominance Beijing can coerce it with. The goal was cheap commodities for them and pricey ones for others.

Alhajji takes this further to note that the US is *relatively* less impacted by the tidal wave of economic and market chaos heading our way: 

• the US (with the Americas) is relatively energy self-sufficient: what if the US were to stop exporting oil, its historic policy norm, to bring WTI down sharply, for example? Could we, as others float, see $200 oil globally and $50 oil State-side?

• Likewise, US LNG is now the lowest risk global choice: who will trust the Gulf as a secure provider again unless the entire region is brought under a true Pax Americana?

• The US, with the Americas, is also self-sufficient in many commodities being choked off directly or indirectly via Hormuz. That includes fertilizer, which means US and LatAm food supplies could remain secure when others’ aren’t. It also includes helium, which allows for the manufacture of semiconductors, when others may be about to fall short.

By contrast, Europe is again in a bad position in this looming crisis, as are energy- and commodity-reliant Asian exporters already struggling with US tariffs.

China will have to rely on its stockpiles for a while, then Russia, which greatly strengthens Moscow’s hand in that relationship.

Perhaps this is paranoia or looking for a strategy in a geopolitical miscalculation; or it could have been a plan B if Iran didn’t ‘do a Venezuela’; or it might just be a happy coincidence the US can now take advantage of if it wishes.

Yet the Donroe Doctrine ‘Shield of the Americas’ project launched at the same time as Gulf War 3, the increased likelihood Cuba flips to the US camp, following the pressure on Greenland, and the evident lead set by US economic (and military) statecraft is quite the coincidence if this is all just random.

Indeed, it’s incredibly important to grasp that this *might* be the Great Game being played, because if it is, assuming “because markets” will bail us out (“Iran/Trump can’t let this happen”) could be false hope.

Oil vey, indeed.

Week ahead

Tuesday: sees more of Japan Q4 GDP, Aussie NAB business confidence, German trade data, Chinese trade data, and the US NFIB small business survey and existing home sales.

Wednesday: has US CPI. Again, irrelevant right now.

Thursday: it’s US trade data and initial claims, housing starts and building permits.

Friday: sees UK industrial production and trade data, Canadian employment, US personal income and spending and the PCE deflator, durable goods, initial claims, JOLTS data, and Michigan inflation expectations.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 12:05

New York's Medicaid Program Under Federal Investigation For Alleged Fraud

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Dr. Mehmet Oz launched a federal investigation into New York’s Medicaid program on March 3, citing the unusual spending trend in the state.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator for the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, speaks at a press conference in the Library of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington on Feb. 25, 2026. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

“Heart surgeons are trained to look at the numbers. When something doesn’t add up, you don’t ignore it; you investigate,” Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and a former heart surgeon, said in a video posted on X.

“Right now, the numbers coming out of New York’s Medicaid program don’t add up,” he said.

New York far outspends other states on its Medicaid program, both on a statewide and per beneficiary basis, according to Oz’s letter to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Numbers

New York’s Medicaid program spends more than $90 billion a year, the second-highest total in the nation, Oz said. That’s roughly 10 percent of the nation’s $900 billion in Medicaid spending for 2024.

New York’s average spending on each beneficiary is more than $12,500, which is 36 percent higher than the national average. The state’s per-resident spending is the highest in the country, nearly 80 percent higher than the national average.

As of January, about one-third of New Yorkers—6.7 million individuals—have enrolled in Medicaid.

That is nearly 14 percentage points higher than the national average of 20 percent Medicaid enrollment, according to November data from the federal government.

“That alone demands scrutiny, but it gets worse,” Oz said in the video.

In addition to New York’s Medicaid enrollment size, Oz cited the workforce delivering long-term care, particularly home-based personal care services, as another driver of New York’s high Medicaid spending.

Between 2023 and 2024, 38 percent of job growth in New York was from the home health and personal care aide category.

“Now, New York has turned this [Medicaid] program to help our most vulnerable into a massive jobs program reimbursed by federal taxpayers,” Oz said.

Personal care services include daily living assistance such as eating, bathing, and dressing. Patients need such services due to aging, chronic illness, or disability.

From 2023 through mid-2025, New York state provided personal care services for nearly 75 percent of its Medicaid enrollees at a cost of $45 billion.

In fiscal year 2024, the state’s Medicaid spending on personal care services was $18.5 billion, nearly 70 percent more than other states’ combined spending on this item, according to The Epoch Times’ analysis of open data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

“That level of utilization is unheard of,” said Oz.

New York state allowed problems such as being “easily distracted” to qualify for a personal care system, making personal care services the number one occupation in the state, Oz said.

Demand for Documentation

He said officials must send documents on how they handle fraud, waste, and abuse, or their federal payments will be put on hold.

“We ask hard questions; we expect an honest answer,” Oz said.

On March 4, Gov. Hochul said the Trump administration was targeting New York for political reasons. She added that she would “show them the facts” to prove them wrong and promised to help fight any actual fraud, according to The Associated Press.

The federal government temporarily deferred $259 million in Medicaid payments to Minnesota over alleged fraud on Feb. 25.

Oz said the money would be released after Minnesota proposes and acts on a “comprehensive corrective action plan to solve the problem.”

Minnesota sued the federal government on March 2 to stop it from withholding funding. The state warned that freezing these funds could force cuts to medical care for low-income residents.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 11:25

"Let Them Keep Playing Games": Iran Warns Of $200 Crude Oil

G-7 finance ministers are holding an emergency meeting on Monday morning to discuss options to cap skyrocketing energy prices, with Brent and WTI trading in triple-digit territory as the Middle East conflict threatens to unleash a global energy shock. As the U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies heading into the new week, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned of $200-a-barrel oil.

IRGC spokesman Ebrahim Zolfighari said on Monday that the U.S. has begun a new chapter in the conflict by targeting Iran's energy infrastructure.

"If they can afford the price of oil at $200 per barrel, let them keep playing this game," Zolfighari said in a video message posted by Al Jazeera on X.

“If they can afford the price of oil at $200 per barrel, let them keep playing this game.”

The spokesman for a wing of the IRGC, Ebrahim Zolfighari, says the US has opened a new chapter in the war by bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/UNy21beiAj

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 9, 2026

Over the weekend, Israeli strikes on major oil facilities around Tehran, combined with production shut-ins by major Gulf producers and IRGC retaliatory attacks on energy facilities across the Middle East, sparked panic in energy markets worldwide, with Brent crude briefly topping $119 per barrel in Asian trading.

On Friday, Goldman analyst Daan Struyven wrote four reasons why oil prices are moving higher:

• Shipping has stopped. We estimate that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are down 90% from normal, curtailing 18 mbpd from the global market (~18% of global oil).

• Pipeline pressures. We estimate only about 25% of the theoretical redirection of oil in the Middle East through pipelines is currently being achieved, partly due to physical disruptions. We estimate only ~0.9 mbpd are incrementally coming to market through Middle East pipeline initiatives.

• No quick shipping solutions. Our conversations highlight that most shippers are in a wait-and-see mode while physical risks in the SoH are high.

• Demand destruction may be necessary. With no supply relief in sight, oil prices may need to go to demand-destruction levels even more quickly than history and simple models focusing on Persian Gulf exports alone suggest.

Goldman's Rich Privorotsky commented on the speculation of SPR dumps, indicating:

Such a release would buy time. If the disruption proves temporary, a coordinated SPR release makes sense. If the disruption persists for months, those reserves might arguably be more valuable at higher prices or in a more acute shortage.

Additionally, energy economist Anas Alhajji warned UBS analysts last week about SPR limitations:

"The impact of the U.S. SPR is limited. Saudi Arabia is completely out of the picture. All of that spare capacity in OPEC is out of the picture. So what do we do? We are then left relying on demand destruction to curb"

Related:

• JPMorgan's New Hormuz Closure Math: Just 3 Days Until Commodity Chaos

What's evident is that Operation Epic Fury, which initially focused on military, nuclear, missile, and IRGC sites, is now targeting economic high-value assets, with Iran's Kharg Island now in focus (read). 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 11:05

Key Events This Week: CPI, PCE, ADP, Durable Goods And More

With the Fed in their self-imposed blackout period, the economic data will get a chance to do the talking ahead of the March 18th FOMC meeting. Of particular note will be the inflation data, namely Wednesday’s CPI report for February and Friday’s core PCE reading for January, but there will also be some scattered labor market data to help put context around last Friday’s disappointing February employment report. Of course, all of that assumes that traders can be dragged away from the latest Iran war headlines fro more than 5 minutes. 

Turning to this week's main event, the February CPI report will get top billing. DB's expectations are for a 1.0% increase in energy prices to boost headline CPI (+0.27% forecast vs. +0.17% previous) relative to core (+0.24% vs. +0.30%). This translates to a year-over-year rate of 2.40% (vs. 2.39% previous), while the latter would tick down by 4bps to 2.46%. Within the CPI basket, DB looks for tariff-related strength in core goods, particularly apparel. In addition, recent gains in wholesale used car prices have the potential to begin adding to price pressures over the next couple of months. On the services side, expect more rental disinflation, though recent upward revisions to the repeat-rent indices suggest caution around the speed at which that can occur. Also look for payback from January’s particularly large increase in airfare prices, though recent moves in energy prices could add to airfares going forward. 

Also of note on the inflation front this week will be Friday’s personal income (+0.4% forecast vs. +0.3% previous) and consumption (+0.1% vs. +0.4%) report for January, which will contain that month’s reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Based on the January CPI and PPI data, DB is expecting a 0.42% increase (vs. +0.36%), which would take the year-over-year rate up a tenth to 3.1%. The Fed will have to wait until the morning of their March 18th meeting for the PPI data to get a more complete read on February’s core PCE. Based on our component-level CPI forecasts, our prior expectation is for a 0.18% February gain, which would have the year-over-year rate decline to 2.8%.

In terms of the labor market data, ADP’s weekly data on Tuesday covering the week of February 21st will provide an initial view on net hiring trends beyond February’s survey week. Similarly, Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s January JOLTs release will give additional context on gross labor market flows.

The remainder of the data this week will help forecasters sharpen their views on current quarter growth. Growth data will also feature. Revisions to the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP (Friday) will update the baseline from which to judge early 2026 momentum. Tuesday’s existing home sales (3.81mn vs. 3.91mn) for February and Thursday’s housing starts (1.325mn vs. 1.404mn) and permits (1.450 vs. 1.455mn) for January will provide an update on the residential sector. We will also get a preliminary look into the health of the factory sector with January’s durable goods orders (+0.4% vs. -1.4% headline / +0.4% vs. +0.8% core) on Friday as well.

Friday will also see the preliminary release of the University of Michigan survey for March. While DB expects a decline in sentiment (55.0 vs. 56.6), due to the recent hostilities in the Middle East, also important for the Fed will be consumers’ inflation expectations.

Over in Europe, the focus will be on the monthly GDP for January in the UK (Friday), German January factory orders and industrial production (today) and the trade balance (tomorrow), and February CPIs in Norway and Denmark (both tomorrow).

Rounding out with earnings, there will be reports from Oracle and Adobe in the US as well as Inditex, Rheinmetall, Volkswagen and BMW in Europe. Finally, the focus will be on the Saudi Aramco earnings tomorrow amidst the big rise in oil prices last week.

Fed reaction

The emergence of shale production in the US has helped to limit the impact of oil price spikes on the economy. Indeed, within the Fed’s FRB/US model, a $20/bbl increase in oil prices only increases unemployment by about 2bps and has almost no impact on core PCE inflation. However, with downside risks to the labor market while inflation has run above target for almost five years in a row, the response for the Fed to such a supply shock is not clear. Indeed, looking at the Fed’s prior responses to energy shocks does not yield a regular pattern (see “What does history tell us about the Fed's response to oil price shocks?”). Sometimes, the Fed emphasized the threat to the inflation side of their dual mandate while other times, it sought to protect against any deterioration in the labor market.

In the current episode, with inflation expected to be on a downward trajectory, the market could give the Fed some leeway to “look through” another supply-side shock. That said, inflation has been too high for too long, and the latest data calls into question how much disinflation can reasonably be expected, especially if there are increases in measures of inflation expectations (e.g., Friday’s Michigan data). On the flipside, growth looks strong but there are concerns on a forward-looking basis, for example, due to the potential for AI to disrupt the labor market.

In summary, the February jobs report, as well as January’s, makes it clear that one month’s data should never be taken in isolation. San Francisco Fed President Daly made this point in the wake of last Friday’s release, noting that while February’s data gives her some concern, all the moving parts like the strike and the change in population controls make it harder to interpret.

While the more dovish members will likely point to the February employment report as justification for more policy support, the Committee, as a whole, will likely need more data to ascertain the underlying state of the labor market. We continue to expect the Fed to cut rates only once this year, should disinflationary pressures become clear in the second half of 2026. However, if February’s weakness is confirmed in subsequent months (not our base case), that could open a path to an earlier reduction

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events:

Monday March 9

• Data: US February NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, China February CPI, PPI, Japan February Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, January labor cash earnings, BoP current account, trade balance, leading index, coincident index, Germany January factory orders, industrial production
• Central banks: ECB’s Elderson speaks
• Earnings: CATL, Constellation Software, HPE

Tuesday March 10

• Data: US February NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, China February trade balance, Japan February PPI, machine tool orders, M2, M3, January household spending, Germany January trade balance, France January trade balance, current account balance, Italy January PPI, Sweden January GDP indicator, Norway February CPI, Denmark February CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Simkus and Muller speak
• Earnings: Saudi Arabian Oil, Oracle, Volkswagen, Partners Group
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday March 11

• Data: US February CPI, federal budget balance
• Central banks: Fed’s Bowman speaks, ECB’s Guindos and Schnabel speak
• Earnings: Inditex, Rheinmetall, Telecom Italia
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Thursday March 12

• Data: US January trade balance, housing starts, building permits, Q4 household change in net worth, initial jobless claims, UK February RICS house price balance, Canada January international merchandise trade, building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Bowman speaks, ECB’s Villeroy speaks
• Earnings: Adobe, Generali, BMW, RWE, Dollar General
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday March 13

• Data: US January PCE, personal income, personal spending, durable goods orders, JOLTS report, March University of Michigan survey, UK January monthly GDP, Germany February wholesale price index, January current account balance, Italy January industrial production, Canada January manufacturing sales, February labour force survey
• Central banks: BoE inflation attitudes survey

Focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the durable goods and core PCE reports on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the March FOMC meeting. 

Monday, March 9 

• No major economic data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, March 10 

• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, February (GS +0.5%, consensus -0.8%, last -8.4%) 

Wednesday, March 11 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), February (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (MoM), February (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); CPI (YoY), February (GS +2.34%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.4%); Core CPI (YoY), February (GS +2.42%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.5%): We estimate a 0.17% increase in February core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.4% on a rounded basis. We expect softer autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% decline in used car prices, a slight increase in new car prices (+0.2%), and a decline in the car insurance category (-0.3%). We expect a smaller contribution from travel services inflation (airfares: flat vs. +6.5% in January; hotels: +0.5% vs. -0.5% in January), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We forecast a benign increase in the shelter categories (rent: +0.22%, OER: +0.22%), reflecting a continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect unchanged medical services prices, reflecting a continued decline in medical insurance prices (-1.0%). We expect upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as recreation) worth +0.05pp. We estimate a 0.18% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.1%) and energy (+0.5%) prices.

Thursday, March 12 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, January (GS -$63.0bn, consensus -$66.0bn, last -$70.3bn) 
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 7 (GS 215k, consensus 215k, last 213k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 28 (consensus 1,850k, last 1,868k)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, January (GS -2.0%, consensus -4.6%, last +6.2%) 

Friday, March 13 

• 08:30 AM Personal income, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Personal spending, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index, January (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index (YoY), January (GS +3.07%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.0%); PCE price index, January (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); PCE price index (YoY), January (GS +2.85%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, in January. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.39% in January, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.07%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.30% in January, or increased 2.85% from a year earlier.
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, January preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.1%, last -1.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, January preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%); Core capital goods orders, January preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%); Core capital goods shipments, January preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased by 1% in the preliminary January report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting an increase in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.5% increase in core capital goods orders and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—the latter reflecting the increase in orders in the prior month.
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q4 second release (GS +1.6%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%); Personal consumption, Q4 second release (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.4%): We estimate a 0.2pp upward revision to Q4 GDP growth to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our forecast reflects a downward revision to business fixed investment growth based on softer software spending details in the quarterly services survey (QSS) that is more than offset by upward revisions to residential fixed investment and inventory accumulation. We estimate a modest upward revision to consumer spending that leaves the rounded Q4 growth rate unchanged at 2.4%.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March preliminary (GS 54.5, consensus 55.3, last 56.6): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, March preliminary (GS 3.5%, last 3.3%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, January (GS 7,000k, consensus 6,750k, last 6,542k)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 10:55

Hims & Hers Erupts In Epic Squeeze As Novo Nordisk Ends GLP-1 Feud

Novo Nordisk confirmed Monday morning that its months-long GLP-1 feud with telehealth firm Hims & Hers Health has, at least for now, been put on ice, with the Danish drugmaker set to sell Wegovy and Ozempic through HIMS' platform by the end of the month. The feud's end was first reported by Bloomberg late Friday and has sparked a panic short squeeze in heavily shorted HIMS shares in New York premarket trading.

Bloomberg headlines crossed around 8:30 a.m. ET, stating that HIMS will no longer offer knockoff GLP-1 drugs on its telehealth platform and will instead offer NOVO's GLP-1 shots and the Wegovy pill. In return, NOVO has withdrawn its patent infringement lawsuit against Hims.

"We see tremendous growth opportunities in the US with the expanding assortment of branded GLP-1 medications," said HIMS CEO Andrew Dudum.

Dudum continued, "I'm excited to have a great partner in Novo Nordisk as we work to create a new model that works for everyday people. This collaboration reflects what's possible globally when drugmakers, biotech companies, and diagnostic leaders partner with consumer platforms to support scaled distribution of their latest medical innovations."

As we noted over the weekend, the move is very surprising because NOVO and HIMS have been locked in an epic GLP-1 feud for months. Just last month, Novo sued HIMS over a copycat Wegovy pill and patent infringement tied to Ozempic and Wegovy. Even the head of the FDA recently stated that telehealth firms were put on notice about copycat GLP-1s.

Leerink Partners analyst Michael Cherny told clients over the weekend that the NOVO and HIMS news via the Bloomberg report from Friday is a "surprise and an unabashed positive for Hims' stock."

And positive it is for the heavily shorted stock, with 39.1% of its float short, or 81 million shares.

HIMS shares are up 52% in premarket trading.

Novo shares in Copenhagen are marginally higher, as we believe both firms making amends was largely driven by investor pressure to halt year-to-date sharp stock losses at both companies.

Friends again. How long will this last? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 09:20

The post The Winning and Losing Countries from High Oil Prices: It’s Not Just Who Has the Oil appeared first on CEPR.

Dem Lawmakers Demand Probe Into Pentagon Officials Saying Iran War 'God's Divine Plan'

Via The Cradle

Dozens of US Democratic lawmakers have called for an investigation into allegations that military commanders are portraying the war on Iran as part of biblical prophecy, according to reporting by Military.com, citing complaints from service members and a letter sent to the Department of War inspector general last week.

The request follows hundreds of reports that officers told troops the campaign against Iran is "divinely ordained" and that President Donald Trump has been "anointed by Jesus".

Image source: White House

Lawmakers warned that invoking religious prophecy to justify military operations could violate constitutional protections and War Department rules requiring religious neutrality.

The controversy began after an anonymous non-commissioned officer contacted the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) on behalf of several soldiers in a unit stationed outside the Iran combat zone. 

The individual wrote that a commander urged personnel to view the war as "all part of God’s divine plan," while citing passages from the Book of Revelation.

According to the complaint, the officer told troops that "President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth."

MRFF founder Mikey Weinstein told Military.com that the organization logged more than 200 similar complaints between Saturday and Tuesday afternoon, with reports coming from personnel stationed at 50 military installations across all branches of the US armed forces.

In a letter sent to Inspector General Platte B. Moring III, members of the Congressional Freethought Caucus and other lawmakers warned that "justifying a war based on interpretations of biblical prophecies" and telling troops they are risking their lives to advance a religious vision raises serious constitutional concerns.

The lawmakers also asked investigators to determine whether statements by War Secretary Pete Hegseth or other officials have contributed to the spread of biblical rhetoric within military ranks, warning that such public remarks could promote similar messaging in operational briefings.

Lawmakers asked investigators to determine if troops who reported the issue faced retaliation and whether additional safeguards are necessary to maintain religious neutrality in the military chain of command.

Independent journalist Jonathan Larsen initially reported over a hundred complaints from soldiers to the MRFF, claiming that commanders are describing the Iran war as divinely ordained and connected to biblical prophecy. 

One non-commissioned officer said the rhetoric was "so toxic and over the line" that it shocked troops and "destroy[s] morale and unit cohesion."

Weinstein warned the reports show commanders treating the war as "biblically sanctioned" and linked to the approaching "End Times," while noting similar religious rhetoric has appeared in remarks by US political figures discussing West Asia.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 08:45