Individual Economists

Heavy Metal(s) And Concepts

Zero Hedge -

Heavy Metal(s) And Concepts

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Markets have shrugged off heavy metal(s) even though their plunge Friday was staggering. We are up around 5% in gold this morning following reports of queues of Singaporeans buying the dip yesterday. Yet note that this happened to an asset seen as a “safe-haven”, and as the foundation of a new global system - even as nobody anywhere is close to demanding gold as payment for exports, or is able to do so if needed. Indeed, there are whispers that a key driver of, and much of the worst damage from, the pump-‘n’-dump was centered in China (whose neo-mercantilism is ironically a key reason for fractures in fiat currency and the liberal world order). One wonders how long generic ‘markets’ can stay calm in a world in which so many people are so unenamoured of fiat FX; and how metals can cope with “because markets!” HFT speculation that make them trade like an NFT or meme stock.

Then again, markets seem to have put the extraordinary recent volatility in JGBs behind them  when nothing has been resolved there. PM Takaichi seems set for a landslide victory on 8 February that will lead us back to where we were - save the US suggesting there’s no bailout from it coming for Japan. That leaves the world’s third largest economy, the $7.8 trillion JGB market, and JPY all on edge as Tokyo deals with rising geopolitical tensions with China over Taiwan.

Going back to Friday, a meme is that metals were heavy as Fed Chair nominee Warsh was seen as a hawk: yet there’s as much likelihood of that being true as that he was picked for his looks. US rates are going to fall, but Warsh just looks hawkish. Moreover, a hawk/dove framing is arguably now irrelevant. What I dub ‘reverse perestroika’ implies a shift to a Treasury- not Fed-centric system and to industry from financialisation: logically that implies different interest rates by sector, so hawkish and dovish. As @mnicoletos puts it, it means changes to encourage banks to lend more into productive sectors. And as @ctindale points out, it requires abandoning abstract economist models of aggregate supply and demand -- useless vs shocks like rare earths -- to address specific material constraints in each sector, e.g., funding stockpiles to release rather than raising rates. If Warsh wants a ‘regime change’ at the Fed (as do Bessent and Trump), then that’s the form it will take, comrades, not just ‘hawk/dove’.

That’s too late for those who ended up having to raise rates after cutting them, i.e., the RBA. Australia’s property-addled economy and Reserve Bank are the first to U-turn on “because (property) markets” rate cuts, hiking to 3.85%, because of “materially” higher inflation, rather than the low inflation their abstract model had told them was looming. It looks like another hike is also going to have to follow. As the Aussie financial press put it, “Chalmers and Bullock both messed up on inflation – the RBA is finally trying to fix its inflation mistakes. When will the federal government follow suit?” Equally, when will abstract models follow suit? And when will markets grasp that is what logically follows on from all of this?

Oil slumped 4.5% Monday on the view Iranian threats of regional war are overblown. The US and Iran will talk Friday, yet the US wants a deal to end its nuclear program, which it bombed last year, and its ballistic missile program and support for terrorist proxies; Iran may float handing over enriched uranium, but says it will only act within its “national interests.” Don’t just read the financial press: follow the logistical build-up of US military power; consider reports Trump favors regime change following as many as 30,000 Iranian protestor deaths; and see there is no geostrategic logic in the US moving weapons into place then allowing Iran to carry on (including selling oil to China).

That’s also as the START US-Russia arms control agreement STOPS on Thursday, kick-starting a new nuclear arms race. Europe might have to join this time. In which case, the politics are very complex --as Draghi called for an EU “federation” to avoid being “picked off one by one” by the US and China-- and as a nuclear trifecta could cost from hundreds of billions to a trillion euros. Add it to the Strategic Autonomy bill, as Europe finds that: it’s struggling to coordinate defence efforts; even replacing the US-backed internal communication system for defence data will take until at least 2030; and as it was warned that its efforts to diversify critical minerals supplies have “incomplete foundations” due to their “nonbinding” targets.

By contrast, President Trump will launch Project Vault --$12bn in seed capital, $1.7bn private, the rest from a 15-year US Export-Import Bank loan-- to build a US strategic critical minerals stockpile. This is separate from the Pentagon’s and is for the civilian economy. The intention is to insulate it from wild price swings in key inputs --something China has long done for key goods, but which the West has eschewed because of its brilliant intellectual conceit of “because markets” as the answer to everything -- as well as economic coercion - which China has again been able to threaten in rare earths “because markets.”

Trump also struck a trade deal with India, reducing reciprocal tariffs to 18% and dropping the additional 25% after claiming India would stop buying Russian oil in favor of Venezuelan, showing how geopolitics links up. This isn’t the FTA the EU just signed, but let’s see which proves more important over time: as a well-placed Indian source noted to me, there‘s no growth in Europe vs. the US. The fact the US will insist on the same no-transshipment rules for Chinese goods that it has with other trade partners is a blow to Beijing; equally, it blows up European hopes of building a trade coalition without the US (and in India frictions will continue, i.e., the EU agreed on green tech collaboration with Delhi, but the US said it is going to sell it more coal). The defense component will also be key. Europe now has a strategic partnership with India in that regard, but national governments hold sway there: will they want to see their defense industries moved to South Asia(?) By contrast, the US is able to move faster, though we shall see what they are prepared to share with India. Delhi at least gets to play both sides off against the other.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 11:10

House To Vote On Package To End Partial Shutdown

Zero Hedge -

House To Vote On Package To End Partial Shutdown

The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday will take up a bill to fund several sectors of the federal government as a partial shutdown enters its fourth day.

Many Democrats - including leaders - have vowed to withhold support from the package.

On Monday evening, the House Committee on Rules advanced the measure - which would fully fund five sectors of the government while extending funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) until Jan. 13 - in a party-line 8–4 vote following a more than four-hour committee hearing.

As Jopseph Lord and Nathan Worcester report for The Epoch Timeswith Democratic leaders indicating that they won’t give their backing to the measure, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will need to rely mostly on his narrow Republican majority to pass the measure.

In a full vote of the House, Johnson can spare only one defection in a party-line vote, though some Democrats are expected to back the measure.

However, some issues with the Senate proposal could lead Republicans to oppose the measure.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a longtime budget hawk and a particular opponent of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which falls under DHS, voted against the previous funding measure due to its funding for CISA, and could oppose the stopgap measure as well.

Other Republicans have pushed leadership to attach the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act to the measure.

Leadership has resisted these demands, which Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) says would make the bill dead on arrival in the upper chamber. The bill reported out of the Rules Committee didn’t include the SAVE Act.

Nevertheless, the passage of the legislation through the Rules Committee—which includes conservative skeptics of the bill such as Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas)—is a good sign for Republican leaders on the funding package’s prospects.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) downplayed the difficulties in comments to reporters on Monday.

“They all come down to the wire, and then we get our business done,” Scalise said.

The bill at issue would provide full-year funding for the departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.

Democrats are demanding reforms to DHS and its subsidiary immigration enforcement agencies before they’ll support a full-year funding measure, though many House Democrats—including leadership—have expressed opposition to extending DHS funding at all before these reforms are addressed.

Rules Committee Ranking Member Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), meanwhile, voiced opposition to the measure at the hearing.

“I will not vote for business as usual while masked agents break into people’s homes without a judicial warrant, in violation of the Fourth Amendment,” he said, referencing ongoing disputes related to the executive branch’s use of self-issued administrative warrants, rather than court-issued judicial warrants, to enter homes.

However, one Democrat—House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.)—indicated at the hearing that she would break with her party to back the measure.

“I will support this package,” DeLauro said at the hearing, referencing the five full-year funding bills attached to the package that have Democratic support.

She said that without the funding extension for DHS, Democrats “won’t be able to bring the kinds of pressure” needed to add reforms to the full-year DHS funding package.

McGovern explained his opposition in response to a question from The Epoch Times outside the hearing room.

“Personally, [I] cannot bring myself to go for one more cent for ICE without some serious guardrails put in place, and I think the leverage we have is now more so than two weeks from now,” McGovern said.

Johnson has said he is “confident” that the partial shutdown will end with the Tuesday vote, despite indicating that House Democrats haven’t given their support to pass the Senate-passed measure.

“We have a logistical challenge of getting everyone in town, and because of the conversation I had with Hakeem Jeffries, I know that we’ve got to pass a rule and probably do this mostly on our own,” Johnson told NBC News’s “Meet the Press.”

House Democratic leadership has not indicated support for the measure publicly, despite it having been backed by Schumer and other Senate Democrats.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told ABC’s “This Week” that it’s clear that the “Department of Homeland Security needs to be dramatically reformed.”

“Masks should come off,” he said. “Judicial warrants should absolutely be required consistent with the Constitution, in our view, before DHS agents or ICE agents are breaking into the homes of the American people or ripping people out of their cars.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 10:55

'Turnaround Tuesday'?: FundStrat's Lee Says "All The Pieces Are In Place For Crypto To Be Bottoming"

Zero Hedge -

'Turnaround Tuesday'?: FundStrat's Lee Says "All The Pieces Are In Place For Crypto To Be Bottoming"

Bitcoin remains under pressure this morning, stalling after a brief rebound from a 10-month low as trader caution persisted in options activity.

Trading was mostly flat, with the biggest cryptocurrency hovering below $78,500 a day after bearish sentiment nearly pushed it to the lowest level since President Trump returned to the White House just over a year ago.

The Bear Traps Report's Larry McDonald laid out the following as some of the reasons for the relentless decline in Bitcoin?

  1. We know that Oct 10 (Billions $$ lost overnight in crypto) was a pivotal moment when some glitches Binance triggered a sell-off, exacerbated by Trump's tariff tweet that day (100% on China) and MSCI reviewing DAT company eligibility (MSTR, etc.).

  2. Also during Q4, bitcoin suffered from market makers deleveraging, the government shutdown, and the liquidity drain (overnight funding stress), which forced the Fed to restart QE in Dec.

  3. Late in Q4 Mt Gox started to sell again. They still have about 40K bitcoin that they periodically sell, but anytime they show up, it weighs on bitcoin.

  4. The cold spell in mid-January forced a lot of bitcoin miners offline to preserve electricity. This led to a drop in the hash rate, which also put pressure on prices.

  5. Also in January, it became clear that the CLARITY Act (pro bitcoin) was going to be delayed because Trump wants to prioritize housing affordability first. So all the pumpers trying to front-run legislation just got carted off the field

  6. Simultaneously, bank excess reserves started to bleed lower again as Bessent filled up the TGA to prepare for big tax refunds in Q1 and the Fed was slow to expand its balance sheet in January.

  7. More recently, the appointment of Warsh as Fed chair has triggered a plunge in precious metals on concerns of balance sheet contraction, and this selloff spilled over on bitcoin as well.

However, amid all that, CoinTelegraph reports that market and derivatives data suggests Bitcoin may find support around YTD lows...

1. Resilience in Bitcoin derivatives suggests that professional traders have refused to turn bearish despite the 40.8% price decline from the $126,220 all-time high reached in October 2025. Periods of excessive demand for bearish positions typically trigger an inversion in Bitcoin futures, meaning those contracts trade below spot market prices.

Bitcoin 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium (basis rate) stood at 3% on Monday, signaling weak demand for leveraged bullish positions. Under neutral conditions, the indicator usually ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period.

2. Even so, there are no signs of stress in BTC derivatives markets, as aggregate futures open interest remains healthy at $40 billion, down 10% over the past 30 days.

“The BTC options market is showing signs of stabilizing as extreme downside fear begins to mean-revert,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX.

“However, a weekly close below $75,000 would invalidate the current bounce higher, and potentially open a vacuum toward that $69,000 to $70,000 zone.”

3. Traders grew increasingly concerned after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $3.2 billion in net outflows since Jan. 16. Even so, the figure represents less than 3% of the products’ assets under management. Additionally, after 10 straight days of outflows, BTC ETFs saw a large $561mm inflow yesterday...

Bitcoin US-listed spot ETFs daily net flows, USD

“For crypto specifically, ETF flow stabilization is the key signal to monitor,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at digital asset analytics firm BRN.

4. Strategy (MSTR US) also fell victim to unfounded speculation after its shares traded below net asset value, fueling fears that the company would sell some of its Bitcoin.

Beyond the absence of covenants that would force liquidation below a specific Bitcoin price, Strategy announced $1.44 billion in cash reserves in December 2025 to cover dividend and interest obligations. MSTR announces earnings on Thursday, so that could be a trigger for better or worse.

Bitcoin’s price may remain under pressure as traders try to pinpoint the drivers behind the recent sell-off, but there are strong indications that the $75,000 support level may hold.

“Turnaround Tuesday seems to be in effect,” said Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital.

“Markets got over their skis selling risk assets, and now that everyone has calmed down a bit, things rally off the lows.”

Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee is sounding a cautious yet optimistic note for crypto investors, arguing that recent turbulence in Bitcoin and Ethereum may be temporary.

“Investors appear more selective, waiting for clearer signals on macro conditions, liquidity, and whether Bitcoin can sustainably hold above prior highs before adding exposure,” said Sean Rose at digital-asset data firm Glassnode about flows and investor appetite.

“A similar slowdown in accumulation momentum among public and private companies reinforces this pattern.”

Despite near-term headwinds, Lee sees signals that crypto may be bottoming. Fundstrat advisor Tom DeMark believes “time and price” alignment has been reached, with Bitcoin back above $78,000 and Ethereum nearing $2,300.

“All the pieces are in place for crypto to be bottoming right now,” he said, contrasting price weakness with network activity, confirming what Goldman pointed out yesterday, that in contrast to the declining price performance, on-chain activity painted a different picture, especially for the Ethereum and Solana networks.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 10:40

Mandelson Resigns From House Of Lords Over 'Embarrassing' Epstein Scandal

Zero Hedge -

Mandelson Resigns From House Of Lords Over 'Embarrassing' Epstein Scandal

Update(1023ET): One welcome immediate repercussion to the fresh Epstein dump of millions of files is that things have finally started happening in terms of a real domino effect in elite circles...

Lord Mandelson, ex-ambassador to U.S., resigns from Labour over Epstein.

Still, all of this might be happening slower than what one might want to see, but it's something when for example NPR is actually doing segments on the Epstein scandals surrounding Bill Gates and others, for example.

On Mandelson, to review one key aspect to what we detail below, he gave Jeffrey Epstein advance notice of a €500bn bailout to save the Euro, messaging Epstein about the bailout on the evening of May 9, 2010 - after which it was formally announced the following morning.

Then Labour's Business Secretary had forwarded No. 10 documents on economic assessments, asset sales, an EU bailout tip - among other interactions with his "pal". To review, something big was expected amid the "embarrassing" scandal and confirmation of corrupt insider wrongdoing

By Sunday, a shocked Mandelson (he was not expecting the release) has quit the Labour party, citing a desire to prevent “further embarrassment”. Labour says that disciplinary action was already “under way”. By phone that night, the grandson of the party grandee Herbert Morrison tells me of his decision it “wasn’t easy”, but he feels “better for it as I need to reset”.

His resignation might be the start of further legal action, as MPs are already lobbying that he never be able to return to government or positions of power:

Baroness Harriet Harman, who was leader of the Commons when Lord Mandelson was business secretary, says Mandelson has "cast a stain over not just this government, but over politics as a whole".

She tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I'm sure the government are in absolutely no doubt about the seriousness of it, and will be taking action and Peter Mandelson will be held accountable."

* * *

Former U.K. Cabinet minister Peter Mandelson - who was fired last September from his new role as ambassador to the United States due to his ties to Jeffrey Epstein - is facing mounting political and legal pressure following disclosures that he may have shared market-sensitive government information with Epstein during the global financial crisis.

Keir Starmer, right, with Peter Mandelson, left. The prime minister is likely to face renewed questions over his judgment in appointing Mandelson as US ambassador.

Documents released Friday by the U.S. Department of Justice as part of the so-called Epstein files appear to show that Mandelson, then business secretary in the Labour government of Prime Minister Gordon Brown, forwarded confidential policy discussions and draft plans to the disgraced financier while the government was grappling with the collapse of global credit markets.

As the Guardian notes, emails forwarded to Epstein from the very top of the UK government include:

  • A confidential UK government document outlining £20bn in asset sales.
  • Mandelson claiming he was “trying hard” to change government policy on bankers’ bonuses.
  • An imminent bailout package for the euro the day before it was announced in 2010.
  • A suggestion that the JPMorgan boss “mildly threaten” the chancellor.
  • Epstein asked Mandelson to confirm a €500bn bailout – which the then business secretary said would be announced that evening. The following day, Mandelson also appeared to give Epstein an early tipoff about Gordon Brown’s resignation.

The revelations have prompted Prime Minister Keir Starmer to order an investigation by the cabinet secretary and to demand that Mandelson resign from the House of Lords. Brown has separately asked the cabinet secretary, Chris Wormald, to investigate the alleged disclosures.

Opposition parties have escalated the matter further. The Scottish National Party and Reform UK have reported Mandelson to police, alleging misconduct in a public office. Emily Thornberry, Labour’s chair of the foreign affairs select committee, said the allegations should be examined as a potential criminal matter.

The Metropolitan Police confirmed it had received several reports relating to alleged misconduct and was assessing whether they meet the threshold for a criminal investigation.

“The reports will all be reviewed to determine if they meet the criminal threshold for investigation,” said Commander Ella Marriott. “As with any matter, if new and relevant information is brought to our attention we will assess it, and investigate as appropriate.”

Sensitive Information Shared

According to the disclosures, emails forwarded to Epstein from senior levels of the British government included a confidential document outlining £20 billion in potential asset sales, discussions about changing policy on bankers’ bonuses, details of an imminent eurozone bailout package ahead of its public announcement in 2010, and references to pressuring the chancellor through senior banking executives.

In one email sent on June 13, 2009, Nick Butler, then a special adviser to Brown, circulated a memo detailing policy measures under consideration and suggesting that the government had £20 billion in saleable assets. Mandelson forwarded the message to Epstein, writing, “Interesting note that’s gone to the PM.”

Epstein replied asking, “what salable (sic) assets?” A response from a redacted email address stated: “Land, property I guess.” Four months later, the government announced plans to sell surplus real estate in a bid to raise £16 billion.

Butler said he was considering reporting the matter to police. “We worked on the basis of trust, which allowed us to float ideas,” he told the Times. “I am disgusted by the breach of trust, presumably intended to give Epstein the chance to make money.”

Another email from May 9, 2010 shows Epstein asking Mandelson to confirm a €500 billion eurozone bailout, which Mandelson indicated would be announced that evening. The following day, Mandelson appeared to give Epstein advance notice of Brown’s impending resignation.

In separate correspondence days later, Epstein asked whether JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon should contact the chancellor, Alistair Darling. Mandelson replied that Dimon should “mildly threaten” him.

BBC economics editor Faisal Islam said he understood from discussions with Darling that such calls from senior bankers, including Dimon, did subsequently take place.

Financial Ties Under Question

The disclosures have also revived questions about Mandelson’s financial relationship with Epstein. Documents released earlier this week suggest that Epstein paid a total of $75,000 into bank accounts of which Mandelson, then a Labour MP, was believed to be a beneficiary. It is also alleged that Epstein sent £10,000 in September 2009 to Mandelson’s partner—now his husband—Reinaldo Avila da Silva, to help fund an osteopathy course and other expenses.

A former adviser described Mandelson’s conduct to the Guardian as “treacherous,” adding: “You can imagine the sense of betrayal that those of us who worked every hour of the day during that crisis are feeling.”

Brown said he had previously asked the cabinet secretary to investigate potential leaks in September but was told there was insufficient evidence at the time. “This is shocking new information that has come to light,” Brown said Monday, calling for “a wider and more intensive enquiry” into the disclosure of government papers during the crisis.

Political Fallout

Starmer, who has no direct authority to strip Mandelson of his peerage, is facing renewed scrutiny over his decision to appoint Mandelson as U.S. ambassador and his proximity to senior Labour figures, including chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Mandelson resigned his Labour Party membership on Sunday.

Downing Street has written to the House of Lords authorities urging urgent reform of disciplinary procedures to allow for the removal of peers in cases of serious misconduct. A Lords source said there is currently little guidance on how such reforms would be implemented, despite their inclusion in Labour’s manifesto.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones told Parliament that “no government minister of any political party should have, nor ever should behave in this way,” and suggested Mandelson may have misrepresented his interests before taking up his ambassadorial role. “When someone lies in their declaration of interests, there must be a consequence,” Jones said.

There is no modern precedent for removing an individual from the House of Lords, a step that would require primary legislation. The last such action occurred during the First World War, when a group of peers aligned with Britain’s enemies were stripped of their titles.

No timetable has been set for the Cabinet Office review, and Downing Street has not confirmed whether its findings will be made public. The inquiry may involve examining archived government documents and interviewing Mandelson and other senior officials who served in Downing Street during the period in question.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 10:23

Pepsi Cuts Some Prices As Much As 15% As K-Shaped Economy Squeezes Consumers

Zero Hedge -

Pepsi Cuts Some Prices As Much As 15% As K-Shaped Economy Squeezes Consumers

Readers already know the K-shaped economy is not going anywhere, even as the Trump administration attempts to correct the imbalance ahead of the midterms. For the junk-food-hungry U.S. consumer, there was a small win on Tuesday morning.

PepsiCo announced it will cut prices by 15% on snack brands like Lay's and Doritos to restore affordability and help revive sales.

"PepsiCo is taking a meaningful step to lower the price on many of our most loved snacks by up to nearly 15%. This includes iconic favorites like Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Tostitos and more," PepsiCo wrote in a statement.

Rachel Ferdinando, CEO, PepsiCo Foods U.S., said her team has spent the "past year listening closely to consumers, and they've told us they're feeling the strain" from elevated processed food prices.

"Lowering the suggested retail price reflects our commitment to help reduce the pressure where we can. Because people shouldn't have to choose between great taste and staying within their budget," Ferdinando said.

The announcement comes just days before the Super Bowl this weekend, as consumers rush to supermarkets to stock up on junk food for the big game, with this year's main event featuring the Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots.

We must note, and can't help but wonder, whether activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which built a $4 billion position in the stock and aimed to overhaul PepsiCo toward greater affordability in late 2025, had any say in the latest decision to trim prices ahead of the Super Bowl.

Pepsi shares were marginally higher in premarket trading in New York. Shares remain -20% from their peak, when they nearly topped $200 per share in mid-2023.

Bloomberg noted that PepsiCo has accelerated its cost-reduction efforts, including reducing headcount, closing three plants, and consolidating several manufacturing lines, with "additional actions planned for the near future." It also announced a product portfolio that would be slashed by 20% in the coming months.

It really does seem like Paul Singer's team at Elliott is busy at work with PepsiCo...

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 10:00

Customers, Don't Expect Electric Bill Relief In 2026: "The Cake Is Baked"

Zero Hedge -

Customers, Don't Expect Electric Bill Relief In 2026: "The Cake Is Baked"

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive,

Rising energy demand, inflation, grid investment, extreme weather and volatile fuel costs are increasing the cost of electricity faster than many households can keep up, and there are no easy fixes, experts say.

Mitigating the problem would require threading a needle of policy alternatives, but even with the right policies, it will take time to reduce customer energy burdens. The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts the national average residential price per kilowatt hour in 2026 at 18 cents, up approximately 37% from 2020.

“I don’t see hidden costs that can be suddenly squeezed out of the system,” said Ray Gifford, managing partner of Wilkinson Barker Knauer’s Denver office and former chair of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. “You are talking about an industry where most of the costs are fixed, and the assets are long-lived.”

Energy affordability has recently become politically salient, but for many low-income people, “the energy affordability crisis is not new,” said Joe Daniel, a principal on the Rocky Mountain Institute’s carbon free electricity team.

In 2017, 25% of all U.S. households — more than 30 million — faced a high energy burden, defined as spending more than 6% of income on energy bills, according to a report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. For the poorest, it can be much higher. Households making less than 30% of area median income paid about 11% of their income for electricity alone, according to data from the Department of Energy covering the years 2018 to 2022. 

The Department of Energy’s Low-Income Energy Affordability Data Tool shows households’ energy burden in the lower 48 states and Washington, D.C. The data is based on the American Community Survey 5-year Estimates for 2018-2022. Retrieved from Department of Energy.

“What is new is that because electricity prices have outpaced inflation, and, more importantly, dramatically outpaced wages, moderate- and middle-income families are starting to feel the squeeze,” Daniel said.

Between December 2023 and June 2025, household energy arrearages rose by about 31%, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. Forced disconnections for nonpayment are also rising, from 3 million in 2023 to 3.5 million in 2024 and potentially 4 million in 2025, it said.

The increases in electricity prices have not been felt evenly across the country, and the reasons for their rise also vary by region. Still, residential rates have risen faster than those for commercial and industrial customers, and the prices charged by investor-owned utilities are higher and have risen faster than those charged by public power utilities, raising pressure on regulators and elected officials to try to rein in costs.

At least six states introduced legislation last year to limit utilities’ return on equity. California’s Public Utilities Commission recently lowered utilities’ ROE in that state by 0.3 percentage points. And newly elected New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill used her first day in office to issue executive orders seeking to freeze electricity cost increases and direct regulators to “modernize” the electric utility business model by making profits “less dependent on capital spending.”

Investors are spooked. Jefferies reported “considerable inbound concern from investors of all types” in January, ahead of Sherrill’s inauguration, related to the anticipated freeze.

But some consumer advocates question whether actions taken now will be too little, too late.

“They’re freezing rates at the highest they’ve ever been,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

Low-income customers are “continually falling behind,” and utilities “spend considerable resources trying to collect,” he said. “I don’t think it works, especially as electricity gets more and more expensive, going up faster than incomes.”

Jay Griffin, a former utility regulator and executive chair for the Regulatory Assistance Project, recently wrote that utility business model reform “isn’t just an abstract policy debate, it’s a practical necessity.”

“By rewarding capital investment over outcomes, the model encourages utilities to ‘spend money to make money,’ while discouraging non-capital solutions like demand management and distributed energy resources,” he said. “This model creates risk for customers and investors alike.”

The electric utility sector says it is working to address affordability issues.

Last year, investor-owned utilities allocated about $7 billion to support customer programs, according to their trade group, the Edison Electric Institute. Those efforts included energy audits and weatherization education, usage-reduction programs for low-income households, bill assistance and payment plans, relief programs and referrals for community support.

President Donald Trump takes the stage to speak during a rally at the Horizon Events Center on Jan. 27, 2026, in Clive, Iowa.  As a candidate, Trump promised to slash energy prices, including for electricity. Win McNamee via Getty Images

“As demand grows in our evolving economy, we will continue building on our long track record of delivering customer savings and supporting families facing financial hardships,” EEI said in an emailed statement.

Rising demand — does it hurt or help? 

The reasons for electricity price inflation are myriad and the mechanisms for determining price depend on the market, making it hard to generalize across the entire U.S. Grid investments, rising material and labor costs and natural disasters all play a role, but perhaps the issue that has attracted the most attention is that of large-load data centers and their unprecedented demands for power.

After decades of stagnant growth, the EIA expects demand from the commercial and industrial sectors to grow U.S. electricity consumption by 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, “marking the first four years of consecutive growth since 2005–07, and the strongest four-year period of growth since the turn of the century.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai lead a panel at the Google Midlothian Data Center on Nov. 14, 2025, in Midlothian, Texas. Data centers are driving demand growth after years of stagnation.  Ron Jenkins via Getty Images

Looking further out, the Bank of America Institute projects demand to rise at a 2.5% compound annual rate through 2035. It attributes the growth to not just data centers, but also building electrification, industrial growth and electric vehicles.

Aggressive load forecasts have helped drive capacity prices to new highs in the PJM Interconnection, the largest grid operator in the country. Data center load accounted for $6.5 billion, or 40%, of the $16.4 billion in costs from the PJM Interconnection’s December capacity auction, according to the grid operator’s independent market monitor.

“Generally speaking, the higher the demand, the higher the prices go,” said Marc Brown, the Consumer Energy Alliance’s executive director of Northeast.

But some research has found that growing demand — from large loads as well as consumer electrification efforts — can also be a grid asset. A study released over the summer from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory concluded that load growth helped depress electricity prices over the past five years, and states with the largest price increases typically featured shrinking customer loads.

“It remains unclear whether broader, sustained load growth will increase long-run average costs and prices,” the researchers said. “In some cases, spikes in load growth can result in significant, near-term retail price increases.”

RMI’s Daniel said higher throughput on the grid can help to lower rates by spreading costs over a broader customer base, and flexible demand can be used to address grid stress and peak loads.

“Done poorly or done correctly, it has the capability of dramatically impacting rates and bills,” he said.

Gifford also said that load growth has the potential to benefit the grid, but only under the right circumstances.

“Load growth, if allocated and planned for properly, can lower per-unit costs to customers on the [transmission and distribution] and even generation side,” Gifford said. But the impacts would take some time to materialize.

A lack of competition in transmission and distribution

Experts say transmission and distribution costs are another major driver of rising consumer bills.

“Some of that is because it’s an old grid that needs to get replaced,” said said RMI’s Daniel. “And because of inflation and supply chain issues, the costs to replace an aging grid have gone up.”

Producer price index figures from November show copper wire and cable, as well as switchgear, costs were all up more than 11% year over year and about 60% from 2020. Tariffs, inflation and supply-chain issues have also impacted key components like aluminum, transformers and turbines. 

But many of the increases appearing on customer bills now are for infrastructure that was built over the past several years. And some argue the ROE model is incentivizing utilities and infrastructure owners and developers to build more expensively than necessary.

High-voltage power lines run along the electrical power grid on Jan. 14, 2026, in Miami, Fla. Transmission and distribution costs have risen in recent years.  Joe Raedle via Getty Images

There is a “regulatory gap in how transmission gets approved and then put on bills of utilities in parts of the country,” Daniel said. “We are building, essentially, the wrong type of transmission.”

Utilities are building local, supplemental projects “that undergo less scrutiny and still deliver a high rate of return, instead of the larger transmission projects that deliver on affordability and reliability,” he said. A 2024 RMI report, for instance, found that in New England, annual spending on local transmission projects increased eightfold from 2016, to nearly $800 million in 2023. The Berkeley Lab study found that overall, investor-owned utilities’ inflation-adjusted spending on distribution and transmission increased from 2019 to 2024 while generation costs declined.

Paul Cicio, chair of the Electricity Transmission Competition Coalition and president of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America, said the fault lies with regulators.

In 2011, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued Order 1000, which requires large transmission projects be subject to competitive bidding. But it made an exception for projects necessary for short-term reliability.

The result, Cicio said, was that just 5% of transmission projects are now being competitively bid. The “loophole” was supposed to be closed in 2024 with FERC Order 1920, but the order did not include ratepayer cost containment provisions, he added.

“FERC needs to close that loophole and require that these projects are competitively bid between utilities,” Cicio said. “Affordability is becoming a national political issue. ... Electricity costs are now on everybody’s radar.”

Utilities have spent almost $154 billion annually on transmission investments in the last five years, said Cicio, “but that’s only the initial cost.”

When FERC incentives and financing charges are factored in, the cost to consumers winds up being almost $1.8 trillion on transmission in the last five years, he noted.

“These are massive amounts of layered-in dollars, and consumers are on the hook,” Cicio said. “The cake is baked.”

Storms and wildfires require grid upgrades

Industry sources and grid planners say that in addition to building out transmission and distribution, utilities also have to harden the grid in the face of more destructive storms and wildfires. 

Last year, U.S. residents lost more power than any year in the previous decade, according to the EIA, with hurricanes a leading cause. The annual average of 11 hours of electricity interruptions was nearly double the annual average of the last 10 years, it said.

On top of the costs of physical grid hardening, the cost of insurance also contributes to higher bills.

In California, which has some of the highest electricity prices in the country, wildfire mitigation efforts cost ratepayers $27 billion between 2019 and 2023, with 40% of that coming from insurance costs, according to the World Resources Institute.

A damaged utility pole is seen as people walk across a makeshift bridge in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene flooding on Oct. 8, 2024, in Bat Cave, N.C. Storms and wildfires require costly grid repaids and upgrades. Mario Tama via Getty Images The cost of decarbonization

State policies driving decarbonization can also lead to higher prices, some say.

The Berkeley Lab report linked price increases in recent years to net metered behind-the-meter solar and renewable portfolio standard programs. 

States with RPS programs that called for new supplies in the last five years increased retail electricity prices by about 0.4 cents/kWh, the study said. It also found, however, that electricity prices were unaffected by “market-based” utility-scale renewable energy projects built outside of RPS mandates.

Those and other findings are driving some states to rethink their policies. Pennsylvania Republicans forced the state to withdraw from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative last year, for instance, over affordability concerns. 

“Programs like RGGI have seen pretty significant [cost] increases,” said Brown from the Consumer Energy Alliance. Program revenues could be returned to consumers, or expenses capped, he said.

Gifford said states with carbon reduction deadlines may need to rapidly to squeeze out a final 20% of carbon-emitting resources.

“You could imagine some of those states reconsidering those mandates or creating a political face-saving way to back off,” he said. “But some of those transition costs are baked in already.”

LNG exports contribute to volatile gas prices

Natural gas prices are one of the biggest determinants of power prices because gas generators tend to set the marginal price of electricity in organized markets, and vertically integrated utilities directly pass fuel costs on to consumers.

The EIA expects the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub to go down this year by 2% from 2025 before rising again in 2027.

“Natural gas prices increase in our forecast because growth in demand — led by expanding liquefied natural gas exports and more natural gas consumption in the electric power sector — will outpace production growth,” it said.

The advocacy group Public Citizen published a report in December arguing the Trump administration’s policies to increase liquefied natural gas exports are driving higher fuel costs and volatility, and, ultimately, higher electricity bills. Under President Trump, DOE has worked to aggressively increase exports, which the agency says are approximately 25% above 2024 levels.

An average U.S. household paid over $124 more on its utility bills in the first nine months of 2025 than in the same period a year earlier due to rising natural gas prices, according to the report.

“And the driver of this, that everyone in the industry acknowledges, is overwhelmingly record LNG exports that are just getting bigger and bigger,” said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s energy program.

Eight U.S. LNG export facilities now use more natural gas than all 74 million domestic gas utility household consumers, he said, adding: “That’s madness.”

“If you start to take steps to reduce demand by LNG exporters, it is going to have a downward effect on domestic gas prices,” Slocum said.

Customer support solutions

While experts and government agencies that track electricity prices see little hope for relief this year, some utilities and states are emphasizing bill assistance and other programs intended to help lower-income households in particular.

But NEADA’s Wolfe said the programs don’t go far enough, and changes are necessary, particularly for low-income customers. 

“There should be no charge,” he said, for a “base amount of electricity for very-low-income families.”

NEADA has also been critical of the Trump administration’s attitude toward the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, known as LIHEAP, a federally-funded, state-administered utility bill assistance program that has helped families afford power for decades. 

In April, the Department of Health and Human Services fired the entire LIHEAP program staff, and the administration proposed eliminating funding for the program in fiscal year 2026. The future of the program remains uncertain as lawmakers negotiate government funding. 

Even if LIHEAP survives, its budget would need to be increased “maybe 5-10 times in order to actually fully address the problem,” said Daniel. 

Utilities and governments should lean into low-income programs that directly provide energy assistance and support, he said.

Fewer unpaid bills means fewer utility write-offs, which ultimately are paid by all customers.

Those programs “tend to be far more cost-effective than we used to think,” he said, and “actually could drive down rates and bills for everybody.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 09:40

Iran Says US Carrier Has Retreated Near Yemen, Opening Door To Diplomacy 

Zero Hedge -

Iran Says US Carrier Has Retreated Near Yemen, Opening Door To Diplomacy 

Iran's Fars news has said that the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has retreated near Yemen, opening room for the pursuit of diplomacy in hopes of staving off military confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

The report says that the large nuclear-powered carrier had "withdrawn" about 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) from the port city of Chabahar in southern Iran, and that is now operating near the Gulf of Aden, east of Yemen’s Socotra Island; however, the Pentagon had not immediately confirmed this.

Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, via US Navy

The carrier group reportedly has several accompanying destroyers and submarines, as is standard when operating in an active deployment, especially in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area.

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul to discuss a possible nuclear deal, according to Axios.

For now, uncertainty hangs above the meeting planning - but the apparent distancing of US and Iranian forces in the Gulf region is a big and positive sign that the dialogue is proceeding, which would constitute the first direct talks since the June war.

Iranian foreign Miniser Araghchi has stressed that "Iran is ready for diplomacy" but has also spelled out that "diplomacy is incompatible with pressure, intimidation, and force." The Iranians are hopeful about potential renewed direct contacts with Washington, however.

Also, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a new Tuesday statement signaled conditional support for renewed talks with Washington as regional intermediaries - including Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar - scramble to dial down rising regional tensions.

In a social media post, Pezeshkian said he backs "fair and equitable negotiations" with the United States and has instructed his top diplomat Araghchi to engage with US officials "provided that a suitable environment exists - one free from threats and unreasonable expectations."

Pezeshkian did not explicitly reference the meeting or any details reportedly expected in Istanbul, but his comments add to mounting signals from Tehran that diplomacy remains on the table, as long as it is not conducted under pressure or ultimatums.

The Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi has concluded Iran sees itself as having nothing to lose if it tries this diplomatic Hail Mary before possibly trading bombs with the US.

"Direct talks between Iranian officials and Trump himself may appear completely unrealistic, but some of the main turning points in the US-Iran drama were caused by moves that most believe were completely impossible," he wrote. "I don't see what the Iranians have to lose by trying this card."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 09:20

Disney Names Parks Head Josh D'Amaro As Next CEO, Replacing Bob Iger

Zero Hedge -

Disney Names Parks Head Josh D'Amaro As Next CEO, Replacing Bob Iger

Walt Disney, after a more than two-year saga, has landed on its next CEO: Josh D’Amaro, head of the company’s theme parks and consumer products division.

D’Amaro, 54, will take over the top job at Disney from current CEO Bob Iger, who cumulatively has served in the post for nearly two decades, having been CEO from 2005 to 2020 when he we replaced by Bob Chapek, only to return in 2022). The Disney board on Tuesday announced the selection of D’Amaro, currently chairman of Disney Experiences, capping the media giant’s extended and closely watched succession drama

D’Amaro, a 28-year-veteran of the company, will succeed Iger effective March 18, the Burbank, California-based company said Tuesday in a statement. He has been with Disney since 1998, starting out at Disneyland. He has worked across a range of business, marketing and operations posts within Disney, from CFO of Disney Consumer Products Global Licensing to president of Disneyland Resort and president of Walt Disney World Resort. He was promoted to his current post as head of Disney parks and cruises, consumer products and Walt Disney Imagineering in May 2020. 

D’Amaro is seen as CEO in the classic Disney mold with nearly 30 years of experience on the retail side of Disney, giving him an intimate understanding of how children and families interact with the Mouse House brand, according to Variety. D’Amaro at present steers a $60 billion investment in an expansion of Disney’s theme parks around the world, including a new destination coming to Abu Dhabi. Before joining Disney, D’Amaro worked in Gillette’s finance department. He holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration/marketing from Georgetown University.

According to Bloomberg, the head of Disney’s Experiences division, by far the company’s biggest source of profit, D’Amaro, 54, was chosen from among several internal candidates who were in line to succeed Iger. They included Dana Walden, co-chair of entertainment and head of TV; Alan Bergman, also co-chair of entertainment and head of film; and Jimmy Pitaro, ESPN’s chairman.

Iger has been personally mentoring potential replacements, according to the company, an attempt by the board to ensure succession goes smoothly after botched efforts in the past.

Disney’s board of directors, led by chairman James Gorman, was under pressure to execute a strong succession plan this time around — after the debacle that ensued when Iger previously handed the CEO baton to Bob Chapek, a Disney veteran who was promoted from the same perch that D’Amaro now holds. Chapek took over as CEO in February 2020, just weeks before the COVID pandemic turned global markets upside down and forced immediate and drastic changes in the way Disney operated. Iger stepped down as CEO but remained chairman overseeing creative matters for the company. That set the stage for an epic clash of strategic visions and executive egos that culminated in the Disney board ousting Chapek in November 2022 and Iger reclaiming the CEO role. 

But Iger’s return had a time limit from the start. In October 2024, the Disney board committed to naming a CEO successor by early 2026. After the Chapek fiasco and increasing investor scrutiny on corporate governance issues (of which CEO succession planning is paramount), Disney’s board has little margin for error this time around.

 In announcing Disney’s year-end 2025 quarterly results on Monday, Iger said there was “healthy competition” between D’Amaro’s parks division and entertainment business, led by Walden and co-chair Alan Bergman.

“We have a healthy competition now at our company in terms of which of those two businesses is going to essentially prevail as the No. 1 driver of profitability for the company,” Iger said. “But I’m confident that both have that ability, meaning both have the ability to grow nicely into the future, given all the investments that we’ve made and the trajectory that we’re on.”

Iger also offered his thoughts on the next Disney CEO’s agenda. “In the world that changes as much as it does… trying to preserve the status quo is a mistake, and I’m certain that my successor will not do that,” he said. “So [the new CEO will] be handed, I think, a good hand in terms of the strength of the company, a number of opportunities to grow and also the exhortation that in a world that changes, you also have to continue to change and evolve as well.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:43

PayPal Suffers Worst Drop In Four Years After Profit Miss, CEO Set To Exit

Zero Hedge -

PayPal Suffers Worst Drop In Four Years After Profit Miss, CEO Set To Exit

PayPal shares in New York premarket trading plunged 17%. If the losses hold through the cash session, this would mark the largest decline in four years. The selloff was sparked after the payments company reported adjusted profit and revenue that fell short of Bloomberg Consensus estimates, along with news that CEO Alex Chriss will be replaced.

CFO Jamie Miller will serve as interim CEO until HP CEO Enrique Lores replaces Chriss. Newly appointed board chair David Dorman said that execution under the current CEO has failed to meet board expectations (translation: share price is too low), despite some progress.

"While some progress has been made in a number of areas over the last two years, the pace of change and execution was not in line with the Board's expectations," Dorman told investors.

Fourth-quarter earnings missed the average analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg, with the payments company highlighting weakness from US retail spending and headwinds abroad.

Important to note that fourth-quarter EPS of $1.23 and revenue of $8.68 billion both missed expectations, while full-year EPS of $5.31 fell below prior guidance of $5.35 to $5.39. Adding to investor concern, signs of softening consumer spending emerged as growth in PayPal-branded online checkouts slowed sharply to 1%, down from 6% a year earlier.

CFO Miller warned in October that worsening macroeconomic headwinds (a K-shaped economy) would affect the firm's ability to achieve its longer-term targets. She and other executives have struggled to monetize the company's payment services.

Here's a snapshot of fourth quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS $1.23 vs. $1.19 y/y, estimate $1.28 (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Net revenue $8.68 billion, +3.7% y/y, estimate $8.79 billionTransaction revenue $7.82 billion, +3% y/y, estimate $7.95 billion

  • Other value added services revenue $857 million, +10% y/y, estimate $838.8 million

Transaction margin dollars $4.03 billion, +2.5% y/y, estimate $4.07 billion

Total payment volume $475.14 billion, +8.5% y/y, estimate $471.51 billion

  • Venmo total payment volume $85.79 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $84.05 billion

Payment transactions 6.75 billion, +2% y/y, estimate 6.72 billion

Active customer accounts 439 million, +1.2% y/y, estimate 439.04 million

Adjusted operating income $1.55 billion, +3.2% y/y, estimate $1.59 billion

Adjusted operating margin 17.9% vs. 18% y/y, estimate 18.1%

Adjusted free cash flow $2.10 billion, -0.1% y/y, estimate $2.03 billion

US revenue y/y growth 4%

International revenue y/y growth 1%

Total operating expenses $7.17 billion, +3.5% y/y, estimate $7.26 billion

As for the outlook, PayPal is guiding to muted growth and margin pressure in the near term

First Quarter Forecast

  • Sees mid-single digit decline in adjusted EPS growth y/y

  • Sees roughly flat transaction margin dollars

Year Forecast

  • Sees low-single digit decline to slightly positive in adjusted EPS growth y/y

  • Sees roughly flat transaction margin dollars

  • Sees adjusted free cash flow above $6 billion

  • Sees capital expenditure about $1 billion, estimate $997.8 million

The combination of the fourth quarter miss and the CEO being replaced sent shares tumbling in premarket trading, down about 17% around 0800 ET - the largest decline since the 25% crash on Feb. 2, 2022.

What is this stock pattern called?

What happens to PayPal shares when X Payments goes live?

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:40

Futures Rise As Tech Gains On Palantir's "Cosmic Reward"

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rise As Tech Gains On Palantir's "Cosmic Reward"

Stock futures are higher, led by tech, while metals rebound and global markets more than retrace Friday/Monday losses. Only bitcoin continues to slide on laughable fears that Kevin Warsh will somehow shrink the Fed's balance sheet. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures gain 0.5% after blockbuster results from Palantir renewed the AI trade. Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher ex-AAPL with PLTR the standout which should aid the Software reboot. Palantir’s forecast for 61% sales growth this year is helping the AI narrative, with CEO Alexander Karp describing the company’s accelerating revenue as “a cosmic reward” for the data analytics firm’s shareholders. Energy, healthcare, and Staples are weaker pre-mkt as all other sectors are big higher. European stocks briefly traded into record territory, while technology stocks led gains in Asia as South Korea’s chipmakers are surging again. Elsewhere, dip-buyers are crowding into metals: gold is +5.5%, silver +9.4% with WTI flat and Ags bid. Bond yields are flat to +1bp with USD flat. Today’s macro focus is on the vote to reopen the government, where Trump told GOP not to block the deal; we also get the January vehicle sales update. NFP / JOLTS have been delayed with release dates to be updated after the gov’t reopens. Earnings remain front and center, with PepsiCo, Pfizer and AMD due today. . Bitcoin remained under pressure.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher ex-Apple which is again depressed by soaring memory prices (Alphabet +1.2%, Tesla +1.1%, Amazon +0.7%, Microsoft +0.2%, Nvidia +0.7%, Meta +0.1%, Apple -0.7%)

  • Gold and silver miners including Newmont (NEM) gain as precious metal prices climb out of a three-day slide. Newmont rises 4%.
  • AES Corp. (AES) rises 8% after BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners is said to team up with EQT AB in a bid to acquire the power company.
  • Eaton Corp. (ETN) falls 5% after the power equipment company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2026 of $13.00 to $13.50, a range with a midpoint below analysts’ expectations.
  • Fabrinet (FN) falls 4% after the engineering and manufacturing services company’s results showed component constraints pressuring the datacom business. However, analysts are broadly positive on the prospects going forward.
  • HP Inc. (HPQ) slips 2% as CEO Enrique Lores stepped down to lead PayPal Holdings.
  • Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) rises 11% after the company forecast revenue for fiscal 2026 that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, a boost for the data analytics company after its shares have gotten off to a lackluster start so far this year.
  • PayPal Holdings (PYPL) falls 15% after the fintech reported profit and revenue that fell short of expectations. The company also said Chief Executive Officer Alex Chriss will be replaced by HP Inc. CEO Enrique Lores.
  • Rambus (RMBS) slides 8% after analysts note that a supply chain hiccup weighed on the semiconductor device company’s first-quarter outlook. The stock has performed strongly of late, rising about 24% so far this year.
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) climbs 3% after JPMorgan upgraded to overweight. The bank is positive about the company’s execution and “more tenable valuation.”
  • Teradyne (TER) soars 20% after the semiconductor manufacturing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, Elon Musk confirmed the combination of SpaceX and xAI in a deal that values the enlarged entity at $1.25 trillion, with the company said to still be planning an IPO later this year. Musk’s rationale is that the least expensive way to do AI computations within two to three years will be in space. Bloomberg estimates that xAI is burning through ~$11 billion in cash in 2025, constraining its ability to seek outsized funding rounds similar to OpenAI. In other corporate news, Uber is rolling out its ride-hailing service in the Chinese gambling hub of Macau, expanding into a new Asian market for the first time in years. Watch shares of professional publishers after Anthropic released an AI-powered productivity tool for companies’ in-house legal teams.

Traders’ appetite for risk rebounded after a steep drop in precious metals triggered a pullback from stocks and crypto at the end of last week. Strong US manufacturing data added to optimism, showing that the economy is on a sound footing as the earnings season rolls on. 

There is a lot of liquidity out there and it’s remaining committed to financial assets,” said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance. “It’s rotating within the markets, and the macro backdrop is supportive of that continuing."

In politics, Republican opposition to Trump’s deal with Democrats to end the partial government shutdown began to crumble late Monday as two conservative holdouts agreed to end their threatened blockade. And an analysis of results from a state senate district vote in the Fort Worth area showed that a Texas Democrat’s shock win was powered by big shifts among Latino voters.

Looking at earnings season, out of the 178 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 79% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 16% have missed. PepsiCo reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter profit and announced a $10 billion share buyback. Merck's forecast for 2026 sales and profit missed Wall Street’s expectations. 

Investors will now turn their attention Tuesday to a slate of earnings, including Advanced Micro Devices Inc., after a favorable reception to Palantir’s report. Traders are watching for signs that AMD is challenging Nvidia Corp.’s dominance in the market for artificial-intelligence accelerators as they look more broadly than the Magnificent Seven for winners of the AI trade. AMD has rallied more than 50% since October, while Nvidia remained largely flat.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, having surrendered most of an earlier advance that took the index to an all-time peak. Miners outperform, tracking a rebound in precious metals. Meanwhile, a drop in Publicis Groupe weighed on media shares. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

  • Amundi shares advanced as much as 6.4% to a fresh high after Europe’s largest asset manager reported what RBC says is a “solid” update and announced a €500m share buyback
  • The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources Index gained 2.4%, with gold and silver advancing as dip buyers crowded into precious metals following an abrupt unwinding of a record-breaking rally
  • Plus500 shares rise as much as 8.5%, climbing to a new all-time high, after the trading platform announced its entry into the US retail prediction markets through a deal struck with Kalshi Exchange
  • ING Groep shares gain as much as 3.1%, hitting a fresh 2007-high, after analysts at Deutsche Bank upgraded the bank and significantly increased their estimates
  • Swatch shares gain as much as 3.2% after Bank of America upgraded to neutral from underperform on optimism that the worst of the decline is over for watchmakers
  • R&S jumps as much as 24%, the most on record, after the Swiss transformers manufacturer posted order intakes for the full year that surpassed the consensus estimate
  • Demant shares plunge as much as 12% to the lowest in three years after the Danish hearing-aid maker provided guidance for 2026 that was below expectations
  • Publicis shares drop as much as 9%. Despite strong results for the fourth quarter and for the full year, analysts note the advertising agency’s conservative growth guidance for 2026 implies a slowdown
  • Zalando shares fall as much as 8.5% as Morgan Stanley warned the clothing retailer continued to face risks stemming from social commerce
  • Siltronic shares slide as much as 6.8% after the silicon wafer manufacturer warned the challenging market is expected to persist in 2026, which analysts at Jefferies believe will weigh on expectations
  • Schaeffler shares drop as much as 4.5% after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, warning its current market cap reflects far more ambitious adoption curves and economics for its humanoid robots than he sees likely
  • Sartorius shares drop as much as 3.6% in Frankfurt, reversing an earlier 4.6% gain. Barclays analysts said it expected “some slight share price weakness today on implied downside risk to consensus estimates”
  • De Nora drops as much as 10% as Kepler Cheuvreux trimmed its price target on the Italian water technologies specialist, noting 2026 will be a lackluster year,

Asian stocks extended a rally on Tuesday, more than erasing the previous session’s decline, on a rebound in precious metals and resurgent excitement around artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 3.1%, and was on pace for the best day since April 10. Most regional markets were in the green, with South Korean’s Kospi surging 6.8% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix helped lead the broader Asian benchmark higher. Stocks also rose more than 3% in Japan, and closed higher in Taiwan and Australia as well. Hong Kong shares edged down. Indian equities also rallied after President Donald Trump announced tariff cuts on the country’s goods. Risk sentiment broadly recovered on Tuesday, with investors piling back into semiconductors and AI-related shares. Palantir Technologies  forecast fiscal 2026 revenue that significantly beat expectations, while Elon Musk’s SpaceX confirmed a $1.25 trillion merger with xAI.

The rout in metals prices is disruptive for equities in the short term and has “created some spillover effects from a liquidity perspective,” Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Equities are expected to continue rising this year, driven by AI implementation and investment that will support earnings growth, he added

In FX, the dollar pared an earlier fall with the yen now the weakest of the G-10 currencies, down 0.2%. The Aussie is still leading after the RBA hiked interest rates.

In rates,treasuries posted a small retreat, with the 10-year yield up one basis point at 4.29%. European government bonds also dip.

In commodities, oil prices are steady with WTI crude futures near $62 a barrel. Spot silver is up 8% to about $86/oz while gold is near $4,900/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, Wards total vehicle sales are expected during the day. JOLTS jobs data for December was on the schedule but has been delayed by the partial government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (8am) and Bowman (9:40am)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
  • DAX +0.4%, CAC 40 +0.1%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.29%
  • VIX -0.1 points at 16.24
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1190.87
  • euro little changed at $1.1789
  • WTI crude +0.1% at $62.22/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Republican opposition to Trump’s deal with Democrats to end the partial US government shutdown began to crumble late Monday. The president told House holdouts via social media to pass the measure “IMMEDIATELY!” A chamber vote is expected today. BBG
  • Elon Musk is merging SpaceX and xAI in a deal valuing the new entity at $1.25 trillion, with SpaceX still planning an IPO later this year, according to people familiar. BBG
  • Reports out Monday afternoon said OpenAI is unsatisfied with some of Nvidia’s latest artificial intelligence chips, and it has sought alternatives since last year, eight sources familiar with the matter said, potentially complicating the relationship between the two highest-profile players in the AI boom. RTRS
  • US President Trump said announcing the creation of US strategic critical minerals reserve. We are launching Project Vault today. USD 2bln from the private sector. USD 10bln funding from US Exim Bank.
  • Australia’s central bank has lifted interest rates for the first time since 2023,one of the first big economies to tighten its monetary policy, in an effort to combat inflation. The Bank increased rates by 25bps to 3.85%. FT
  • China has let the interest rate on a one-year policy loan to banks drop to a record low, according to people familiar with the situation, lowering funding costs so as to revive economic growth. BBG
  • Demand softened at Japan’s 10-year bond auction as investors grew cautious ahead of a snap election, keeping yields elevated amid equity gains and ongoing fiscal concerns. BBG
  • Ukraine has agreed with western partners that persistent Russian violations of any future ceasefire agreement would be met by a coordinated military response from Europe and the US. FT
  • French inflation fell more sharply than expected last month to a 5 year low, raising further possibility that eurozone inflation could be below the European Central Bank’s target for longer this year. Consumer prices were 0.4% higher than in January 2025, down from a 0.7% increase in December. WSJ
  • Euro-zone banks unexpectedly tightened corporate credit standards at the end of 2025, the ECB said in its quarterly Bank Lending Survey. BBG
  • President Trump said he is seeking USD 1bln of damages from Harvard.
  • House Rules panel advances the Senate funding package.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Kremlin's Spokesperson said Russia have not heard any statement from India about halting Russian oil purchases, adding that they intend to continue developing their relations with India.

Earnings

  • NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.35 (exp. 3.31), Revenue 3.34bln (exp. 3.31bln). Q1 Guidance:. EPS 2.77-3.17 (exp. 2.99). Revenue 3.05-3.15bln (exp. 3.09bln).
  • OpenAI has determined it needs alternatives to NVIDIA’s (NVDA) latest AI chips in some cases, has sought alternatives since last year. OpenAI is unsatisfied with the speed at which NVIDIA’s hardware can spit out answers to ChatGPT users for complex problems.
  • Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.25 EPS (exp. 0.23), Revenue 1.41bln (exp. 1.34bln). Said sales to US businesses in 2026 are expected to grow at least 115% to more than USD 3.14bln.Outlook:. FY revenue 7.182-7.198bln (exp. 6.3bln). FY adj. operating income 4.126-4.142bln (exp. 3.14bln). Q1 adj. operating income 870-874mln (exp. 641mln). Q1 revenue 1.532-1.536bln (exp. 1.33bln).

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher with several bourses firmly recovering from the prior day's sell-off, as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where markets rallied after a strong ISM Manufacturing report. ASX 200 climbed higher with tech and miners leading the advances, although further upside was capped as the focus turned to the RBA which hiked rates for the first time in over two years and sounded hawkish on inflation. Nikkei 225 surged following recent currency weakness and gained a firm footing above 54,000 to hit a record intraday high. KOSPI outperformed in a turnaround from the prior day's bloodbath with the Korea Exchange activating a sidecar earlier in the session to briefly halt program trading after a sharp rise in the local benchmark. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially lagged with early pressure seen across tech stocks, despite no immediate obvious catalysts, and with some attributing it to VAT hike concerns, while the Hang Seng TECH Index briefly re-entered bear market territory after dropping more than 20% from its October high. However, Chinese markets then pared their losses alongside the broad rally in Asia.

Top Asian News

  • China's No1/central document includes plans to improve and consolidate soybean production. Intend to stabilise food and oil output. To diversify agricultural product imports.
  • Earthquake of magnitude 5.0 hits near the east coast of Honshu, Japan.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama continues to refrain from commenting on intervention data and said PM Takaichi talked about FX benefits as a general fact, and didn't specifically emphasise merits in a weak yen.
  • Nintendo (7974 JT) President said memory price rises not having a major impact on earnings.
  • Nintendo (7974 JT) - Q3 (JPY): Operating income 155.21bln (exp. 180.7bln), 9M switch sales -66% Y/Y; sees FY net sales 2.25tln (exp. 2.37tln).

European bourses (+0.4%) opened entirely in the green, but sentiment has since waned a touch off best levels, with a couple of indices now slightly in the red. European sectors opened with a positive bias but are now mixed. Basic Resources outperform, led higher by strength in underlying metals prices. Media lags, pressured by losses in Publicis (-7.4%) and ProSiebenSat.1 Media (-2.2%) post-earnings.

Top European News

  • French Finance Minister said the G7 needs to agree on a joint instrument to address global macroeconomic imbalances. Joint instruments can have a sectoral focus, such as rare earths.
  • French Finance Minister Lescure said that the 2026 budget will reduce the deficit to 5.0% from 5.4%, GDP growth of 1% so far in 2026 is a good start.

FX

  • DXY resumed trade overnight on a softer footing following yesterday's post-ISM recovery (which printed its first expansion in 12 months and at the fastest pace since 2022). The index gradually pared those losses as the morning progressed, to now trade flat, and at the upper end of a 97.34-97.62 range. On the data front, it was also announced that the BLS has delayed the December JOLTS report due today and the January NFP report that was scheduled for Friday owing to the partial government shutdown. With a House vote expected as early as today, the data could be published next week if the vote passes, ING posits.
  • Antipodeans are firmer with outperformance in the AUD amid the rebound in risk appetite and metal prices, while further upside was seen after the RBA meeting, where the central bank hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, and stated inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. Governor Bullock declined to provide any forward guidance on the future path of interest rates. AUD/USD has come off best levels amid the aforementioned recovery in the DXY but still holds onto most of its gains in a 0.6945-0.7050 current daily range.
  • Other G10s are flat/lower against the USD, with EUR & GBP flat whilst the JPY lags a touch. For the latter, there was some commentary via Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who reiterated that PM’s Takaichi latest commentary on a weak JPY was a general fact and didn't specifically emphasise merits in a weak JPY. Focus now on the Japanese snap election, where discussions regarding an LDP "supermajority" is getting more attention. Elsewhere, EUR digested a cooler-than-expected prelim French HICP report which had little impact on the single currency.

Central Banks

  • RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it stated that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. A wide range of data confirms inflation has picked up materially. Broad measures of wage growth continue to be strong. Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but has so far not affected Australia. Job market conditions are a little tight. Capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed. Private-sector demand is growing faster than expected. There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy:. Underlying inflation is higher than expected. Underlying inflation rose to 3.4% over the year to the December quarter, which was higher than expected three months ago and substantially higher than expected in the August Statement. GDP growth has continued to pick up, with private demand growth surprisingly strong. GDP grew by 2.1% over the year to the September quarter, which was around our estimate of the economy’s potential growth rate. Labour market conditions have been stable. The unemployment rate has been broadly stable at around 4.25% in recent quarters.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said does not know if this will be a tightening cycle and cannot rule anything out or in.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said pulse of inflation is too strong and that high inflation hurts all Australians. said:. Board thinks inflation will take longer to return to the target. We cannot allow inflation to get away from us. Will not give forward guidance and the board will remain focused on data. Did not discuss a 50bps rate increase.
  • US President Trump said Fed chair nominee will do good and that investigation into Fed Chair Powell should be taken to the end.
  • ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4) : Overall credit terms and conditions tightened for loans to firms and consumer credit, while they eased for housing loans.
  • BOK Minutes suggests one board member said further rate cuts should only be considered after risks related to FX and housing markets ease.
  • ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jan): Banks tightened credit standards for firms, citing higher perceived risks amid lower risk tolerance; Credit standards eased slightly for housing loans, but tightened further for consumer credit.

Fixed Income

  • JGBs spent the overnight session under modest pressure, with losses of just under 15 ticks at most in a narrow 131.41-60 band. Specifics for Japan are a little light as markets count down to Sunday's election, and the narrative is increasingly pointing to a convincing LDP victory, with a 'super majority' featuring more in discussions around the potential outcome.
  • USTs are under modest pressure after contained APAC trade. Pressure that is most pronounced at the short end, with yields bid across the curve and flattening as things stand, in a marginal extension on the post-ISM flattener. Today's docket has been trimmed by the US shutdown, as the BLS will not be updating until there is a resolution and as such, JOLTS will not print. While a funding deal should pass very shortly, Friday's NFP will also be pushed until at least next week. Currently, USTs trade at the low-end of 111-15 to 111-20+ parameters, at a WTD low, taking out last week's trough by half a tick but clear of the 111-09 YTD base.
  • Bunds came under pressure early doors, directionally in-fitting with the above, but with magnitudes a little more pronounced in limited newsflow and light volumes. A move that was perhaps a function of the constructive European risk tone at the time. Bunds as low as 127.74 at the time and currently hold a handful of ticks above that trough with losses of c. 15 ticks on the session. Data-wise, French prelim. HICP came in cooler-than-expected across the board, lifting EGBs generally at the time. A series that works to offset some of the hawkish impulses from the prelim. Thereafter, a 2035 Green Bund auction had little impact on the benchmark.
  • Gilts gapped lower by 12 ticks, acknowledging the above. UK specifics are very light aside from a well received 2035 auction, which garnered a b/c above the 3x mark. Focus now turns to the BoE on Thursday, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged.
  • UK sold GBP 4.25bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 3.63x (prev. 3.26x), average yield 4.585% (prev. 4.456%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps).
  • Germany sells EUR 1.35bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.50% 2035 Green Bund: b/c 2.01x (prev. 2.2x), average yield 2.79% (prev. 2.52%), retention 10.0% (prev. 4.2%)
  • Ireland's NTMA raises EUR 5bln from the sale of its new 10 year benchmark bond.
  • South Korea is to sell 3-year and 5-year USD-denominated bonds.
  • Italy's Tesoro opens book to sell new 15-year BTP bond via syndication, with guidance seen +10bps to 2040 BTP.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks continued to extend on Monday's losses, with WTI and Brent nearing USD 61/bbl and USD 65/bbl, respectively. Oil prices traded muted throughout the APAC session but were pressured following comments by Russia's Deputy PM Novak, saying they have a surplus in fuel supplies. Since, benchmarks have edged a little higher to now trade flat on the session.
  • Nat Gas futures continue to fall, with Dutch TTF returning to EUR 32/MWh as concerns over the Arctic storm affecting gas production ease.
  • Precious metals have brushed off the recent tarnish following the aggressive selloff in recent sessions. Spot gold has regained the USD 4900/oz handle as being as low as USD 4400/oz in Monday's session. Investors have been highlighting that the selloff is just a correction and that underlying drivers for gold, mainly central bank buying and ETF inflows, remain strong.
  • 3M LME Copper continues to rebound, alongside precious metals, as the red metal extends to a session high of USD 13.48k/t. The bounce from the recent selloff comes amid a broader reversal of the risk tone and reports that China could expand its strategic copper reserves. China maintains stockpiles of major base metals such as copper and cobalt to stabilise commodity prices and ease raw material cost pressures. The expansion of the reserves comes amid the recent volatility of metals prices.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak said oil demand and supply are in balance.
  • Kuwait Petroleum Corp. intends to invite global oil firms to assist Kuwait Oil in the development of offshore fields, Bloomberg reported.
  • China raises its gas and diesel prices by CNY 205 and 195 respectively, effective February 4th.
  • Russia's Deputy PM Novak said they have a surplus in fuel supplies, adding that domestic diesel and gas supplies are sufficient.
  • Shanghai Gold Exchange to adjust margin rations to 17% (prev. 16%) for some gold and silver contracts, and widen the daily price limit to 16% (prev. 15%) as of the 4th February settlement.
  • China could expand its strategic copper reserves and explore a commercial reserve system with state-owned firms.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russian Deputy PM Novak said oil demand and supply are in balance.
  • Kremlin's Spokesperson said Russia have not heard any statement from India about halting Russian oil purchases, adding that they intend to continue developing their relations with India.
  • Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said the modernisation of their nuclear triad is at a very advanced stage.
  • Russia's Deputy PM Novak said they have a surplus in fuel supplies, adding that domestic diesel and gas supplies are sufficient.
  • Russia and China held new round of stability talks to support multilateralism.
  • Ukraine agrees multi-tier plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia, according to FT.
  • reported note that witnesses say loud explosions heard in Ukraine's capital of Kyiv.
  • US President Trump said doing very well with Ukraine and Russia and think we'll have some good news. said:. Putin agreed to no missiles going into Kyiv. We are talking with Iran and we'll see how that goes.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iran's Vice President said a new chapter of Iran's nuclear achievements will be unveiled.
  • Iranian official said that a US aircraft carrier has retreated and is now near Yemen.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Russia and China held new round of stability talks to support multilateralism.
  • Venezuela's Interim President Rodriguez met with US Envoy Loro Dogu.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on US Economy
  • 9:40 am: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Conversation

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have seen a huge turnaround over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.54%) closing just shy of its record high, with another +0.25% gain in futures this morning after being over -2% lower than current levels this time yesterday. The recovery had several drivers, but the biggest was the ISM manufacturing index, which unexpectedly surged to its highest level since 2022. So that led to growing optimism on the 2026 outlook, along with a classic risk-on move. Meanwhile in Europe, it was a similar story as the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) hit another all-time high, whilst the sharp decline in oil prices helped to ease concern on the inflation side. So it was generally a strong day, with precious metals still the obvious exception, as gold prices (-4.76%) fell to $4,661/oz, whilst silver (-6.96%) saw a fresh plunge that left it down by nearly a third in the last two sessions. However, the yo-yo moves in precious metals have seen gold (+3.46%) and silver (+5.40%) erase most of yesterday’s losses overnight.

That ISM manufacturing print was critical, because it cemented the prevailing narrative of strong data resilience, which has supported markets despite the array of surprising headlines in recent weeks. Indeed, the headline print was back in expansionary territory at 52.6 in January (vs. 48.5 expected), placing it above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. And the details were also very strong, with the new orders component surging to 57.1, up +9.7pts on the December print, making it the sharpest monthly jump since June 2020 and the Covid recovery. Clearly it’s only one piece of data, but it’s one of the first we have covering 2026, and it confirmed the robust signals from other sources like the PMIs and the weekly jobless claims.

One of the clearest reactions to the ISM was in US Treasury markets, with yields moving higher as investors priced out the chance of Fed rate cuts. For instance, futures had been pricing in an 87% chance of another rate cut by the June FOMC (which would be Warsh’s first as Chair if confirmed), but that was down to 70% by the close. And in turn, the 2yr yield (+4.9bps) rose to 3.57%, whilst the 10yr yield (+4.2bps) rose to 4.28%. That was particularly noticeable among real yields too, as the 2yr real yield rose by +9.1bps. Higher yields supported the dollar index (+0.66%), which has had its best two-day run since last spring.

Yields were little changed after the latest quarterly borrowing estimates from the US Treasury, which came in at $574bn for Q1 and $109bn for Q2. The Q2 figure was a bit higher than expected, but this was mostly due to an increased end-of-June cash balance target of $900bn, which our strategists expect to be met with higher bill issuance.

While yesterday’s US data delivered positive news, we heard that the BLS will not be releasing the January jobs report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown that started last Saturday. In the latest on the shutdown, Trump called on House Republicans to immediately pass the funding deal that was approved by the Senate late last week. Trump’s intervention came as House Speaker Johnson has sought to avoid a push for amendments by conservative Republicans, with a House vote on the package expected today.

Although precious metals are rallying back this morning it's worth highlighting Friday and Monday's losses in aggregate. Gold was down a further -4.76% yesterday, which left them down -13.28% in total over the last 2 sessions, making it the biggest 2-day plunge since 2013, and the second biggest since the 1980s. For silver there was an even bigger slide, with prices down -6.96% to $79.27/oz, which brought the 2-day slide to an historic -31.48%. Indeed, that 2-day move for silver is the biggest fall since Bloomberg’s daily data starts back in 1950, so this is genuinely unparalleled in any of our careers unless you're reading this in your 90s. If you are, then a special hello this morning.

Meanwhile for oil, yesterday also brought some big declines as investor concern eased about geopolitical risk. In part, that followed Trump’s weekend comments that was hopeful about some sort of deal with Iran. And then yesterday, Axios reported that the US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Istanbul on Friday. So that helped to take out some of the geopolitical risk premium, and it marked a sharp turnaround from January when Brent crude saw its biggest monthly jump in 4 years. So by the close, Brent crude fell -4.36% to $66.30/bbl, and WTI was down -4.71% to $62.14/bbl. Moreover, that eased investor concern on the inflation side too, with the US 2yr inflation swap down -4.7bps on the day to 2.55%, its biggest daily drop of 2026 so far.

Against that backdrop, it was a strong day for equities on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 (+0.54%) recovered from a run of 3 consecutive declines last week, closing just -0.03% below its record high from last Tuesday. Admittedly, the Mag 7 (-0.10%) continued to struggle, posting a 3rd consecutive decline, but small-caps had a very strong performance, with the Russell 2000 up +1.02%, while consumer staples (+1.58%) and industrials (+1.26%) sectors led the gains for the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, we had news of fresh tariff relief, as Trump posted that the US would cut the main tariff on India from 25% to 18%, while also removing the additional 25% tariff the US imposed on India last August citing its purchases of Russian oil. Trump said India would stop purchases of Russian oil, buy “over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products” and remove tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US, though the official details of the pact are not yet clear.

Earlier in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.15%) both hit record highs, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.05%) closed at its highest level since 2000. That came as the final PMI readings in Europe were revised in a positive direction, with the Euro Area manufacturing PMI up to 49.5 (vs. flash 49.4), alongside upward revisions in Germany, France and the UK. 

Asian equity markets are experiencing a significant rebound this morning, with the KOSPI (+6.13%) seeing a stunning surge in AI-related shares, while the Nikkei (+3.89%) is also witnessing a notable increase, supported by a weaker yen. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.90%) saw its gains trimmed after the RBA raised the key rate to address rising price pressures (details below). In other areas, Chinese stocks are underperforming compared to their regional counterparts, with the Hang Seng flat and the Shanghai Comp +0.64%. As well as S&P futures (+0.25%) being higher as discussed at the top, Nasdaq futures are half a percent higher as I type.

Returning to the RBA, they raised their benchmark cash target rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, up from 3.65%, in a unanimous decision by the rate-setting board. The central bank anticipates further potential hikes to address what it perceives as persistently high inflation. This decision follows a resurgence in Australian inflation observed in late 2025, which has also seen core inflation rise above the RBA’s annual target of 2% to 3%. Furthermore, the RBA’s economic outlook, as outlined in its monetary policy statement, now projects headline inflation to reach 4.2% by mid-year, significantly higher than earlier expectations. Additionally, it anticipates that underlying inflation—a trimmed mean measure closely monitored by the RBA—will accelerate to 3.7% by June, up from the current rate of 3.4%. In the short term, the RBA has revised its forecast for economic growth to 2.1% by June this year, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.9%. Following this decision, the Australian dollar (+0.86%) is gaining strength after two consecutive sessions of declines, trading at 0.7008 against the US dollar, while yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year government bonds have risen by +6.9 basis points to 4.31%, marking the highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have increased by +3.7 basis points to reach 4.84% as we finalise this report.

Against this background, markets have raised their expectations for a rate increase in May to 79%, with the market anticipating a cumulative tightening of 36 basis points this year.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the January flash CPI print from France, along with the US JOLTS report of job openings for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman, and also get the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey. Finally, today’s earnings include AMD and Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:32

Transcript: Kate Burke, Allspring Global Investments, CEO

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: Kate Burke, Allspring Global Investments, CEO, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio

Barry Ritholtz: On the latest Masters in Business podcast. My conversation with Kate Burke, she’s CEO of Offspring Global Investments, helping to run about $635 billion in client assets. She has a fascinating background. She’s held all sorts of roles. CEO-COO-CFO, Chief Talent Officer, both at Alliance Bernstein and Offspring. I thought this conversation was fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my interview with Kate Burke of Offspring Global. Kate Burke. Welcome to Bloomberg

Kate Burke: Thank you Barry for having me.

Barry Ritholtz: So we’re gonna get to all of your various titles, many of which I’ve, I’m fascinated by, but I, I have to start with your background. So you study economics at Holy Cross before getting your MBA at Kellogg, what was the career plan? Was it always investing in finance?

Kate Burke: No, I, I had an idea, it might be finance, but I grew up in Rochester, Minnesota. It was a town of 80,000. It’s probably about 120 now. Largely the Mayo Clinic is there and IBM is there. And so there wasn’t a lot of financial acumen that was easily available to me. It just wasn’t a career that really had presented itself. But I was interested in investing. I’m one of five kids. My dad was trying, and mom were trying to save to help us pay for college. And my dad would take, talk me through the decisions he was making, even though he was a self-taught investor as well. And that was really the first interest I had. My first job, one of my first jobs was actually being a teller at a bank because I thought, this is how I’m gonna learn about banking,

Barry Ritholtz: Really, as a teller.

Kate Burke: Didn’t know. That’s how little I knew at the, you know, when I’m 18 years old, there’s very little, you don’t have all the information you have today available. Right. We didn’t have the internet. I had the Wall Street Journal that I could, that my dad got, that I could read. And that was really it. And so I thought, well, how, if I’m gonna get into banking, I might as well go be a teller at a bank. That was obviously not the longer term career path I chose, but it showed an early interest in the, in finance. So,

Barry Ritholtz: So what was it, was it your, your father that sparked the interest in investing or was it school? What, what led you to say, Hey, this is a legitimate career option For me,

Kate Burke: I think it was a little bit of, it started with my, my dad and then economics. I, holy Cross is a liberal arts college. I had originally thought I was going to go to a university with a business program. So I knew I wanted to do business. I fell in love with Holy Cross. Economics was the closest major you could have as a liberal arts uni college. So I pursued that. And then it was my first year outta college, I actually worked for a not-for-profit called Americas Sure. And then was looking to get a job in finance. ’cause I was very close to New York City, but not in New York City. And started networking with people to try to learn more about jobs and finance, because I certainly had friends who had moved into it. But I ultimately went and worked at Tommy Hilfiger instead. And so I went, but that’s where I really got interested in it. ’cause I did investor relations there.

Barry Ritholtz: That was in between college and, and MBA. And, and what was the first job? Right outta business school.

Kate Burke:  It was management consulting at, at Kearney. So that, that exposed me. I call that my finishing school. You know, you go to business school, you liter learn a lot of theory. By doing consulting, you learn a lot of more practical application. And it really, I still leverage a lot of the, the things I learned in consulting about how do you go into something that you don’t fully know, ask a lot of questions, learn how do you structure a problem, and then how do you break down the work to make for forward progress? And being able to do that kind, that critical thinking and that strategic planning, I think has helped me throughout my career. So,

Barry Ritholtz: Kate Burke: So Tommy Hilfiger consulting, Tommy Hilfiger. How did you end up at Alliance Bernstein?

00:04:32 [Speaker Changed] So I was doing, so it was Tommy Hilfiger Business School, then consulting. And at Tommy Hilfiger I did investor relations. So I was the only person in a suit compared to all the other 20 year olds like skateboarding down the hall. So it was very fun in my twenties to be working there. But after business school was doing consulting, we were living, I had gotten married, we were living in Ohio, and we really wanted to be in New York City. I had already lived here once, my husband had not. And when we moved back to New York and I was doing consulting, I just, I couldn’t be in New York City in the hub of finance and not be in finance. And so using, again, networking came across Bernstein Research and said, this is the place I wanna work. I just absolutely loved it.

00:05:25 [Speaker Changed] They, they’ve had a great reputation for, for decades. You’ve had a number of roles there. Everything from, you know, across your career. Chief operating officer, chief financial Officer. Tell us about Chief Talent Officer. What, what does that involve?

00:05:41 [Speaker Changed] So, chief Talent Officer, I, I had moved out of sales and sales management into the head of Human Capital with, which is head of hr, human Resources. And as part of that, your role as Chief Talent Officer, which an asset manager, when all that you have is your talent, right? Is an incredibly critical job. And what that really is about is how do you create better teams? How do you find talent, nurture talent, build talent? How do you help collaboration across silos in the organization? How do you build performance management systems? All of those things come into to how do you build the best talent? And it was a fantastic role for me. One that I was worried originally about taking, moving from a producer, a sales producer, into a corporate function. I didn’t say yes right away when they offered it to me because I was, I thought of myself, my, my, you know, I thought of myself as a revenue generator and moving into that role was the best decision I made.

00:06:57 Wow. Because it moved me one outta my comfort zone. I was working with a group of people within the talent organization who were deep practitioners of human capital kinds of practices who had studied this. They were passionate about it. And I came in with a business acumen and I had to very quickly learn to work with them and find a way to create value with people who questioned a little bit about why I was their boss. It wasn’t the first time that it happened to me really. And, and so moved into that role and really embraced it. And I came up with, you know, return on invested capital. I came up with a phrase, return on invested time. So anytime you ask anyone inside the organization to do something, you’re asking them to invest their time so you better have a return on it. And so it stopped us from doing, from chasing things that may be academically interesting or fads, but really focused on the individuals inside Alliance Bernstein and how could we help use their time wisely to develop themselves and to build a great firm.

00:08:10 [Speaker Changed] I, I’m kind of fascinated by the reluctance to go from something that is measured in very specific, can be easily quantified. Here’s how much assets we generated, here’s the revenue that came in off of those as either a producer or managing a producer, chief talent officer where you’re responsible for attracting talent and then retaining talent. It’s a little squishier. How can you tell? And more importantly, how can senior management tell how effectively you’re doing that job?

00:08:41 [Speaker Changed] So there are metrics still. You look at things like your retention promotions, if you have a voluntary or involuntary turnover as ways of having some measurement of it. You also do cultural surveys. So you will ask the employee population a set of questions. There’s firms that do this. So you can compare yourself not only year over year, but also to your peers in the industry to get a sense of, is it, is it a place where talent wants to stay? So retention is probably the number one stat that you have. But the other part is, are you a good partner to the other leaders in the organization? And are you gaining their trust? Are you helping work through their talent issues? The number one lesson I took away is that there are many, many ways to be a successful leader and to build a good team.

00:09:42 But the number one thing that you have to do is you as a leader have to be the chameleon to your team that you should be adjusting your management style to bring out the best of the individual ver and to give them feedback and to help them versus expecting that individual to mirror you. And that was really powerful because I think it creates this opportunity for you to bring together a really diverse group of talent where they have permission to leverage their strengths. And then my goal is always to build scaffolding around them and to ensure that the dy overall dynamic of the team, that you cover the bases of everything you need. And helping leaders see who on their teams were really analytical versus who were more of the culture and people carrier versus who really partnered well with others. And, and do you have that representation on your team so that you can do more to together versus having five people on a team or 10 people on a team who are all carbon copies of themselves, that that tends to lead to more siloed thinking. So it was, it was really fun. And I got to work with really smart, great leaders and managers across the organization to, to learn many of those skills. It,

00:11:04 [Speaker Changed] It sounds like Chief Talent Officer was a natural bridge to chief executive officer.

00:11:11 [Speaker Changed] It, it, yes. I did not think that at the time, but when I reflect on my career, it was the best job for me to have taken and it, for all the reasons I’ve already stated in terms of how you engage with talent and learning how to build teams. But also it gave me the opportunity to have a seat at the table with the rest of the senior leadership team and talk strategy and understand how we were building the business. And it was great training ground. I had been in the role about a year, maybe to maybe two when we had a CEO transition. There’s a lot of pressure on the head of human capital to, to partner with the CEO to make sure they’re successful for sure. And so that gave me the opportunity to work closely with Seth Bernstein, who’s the current CEO of, of Alliance Bernstein. And he is the one who then also afforded me a lot of other opportunities over time to take on other roles because I became a trusted partner to him. Huh,

00:12:18 [Speaker Changed] Really, really interesting. And then how did you end up moving from Alliance Bernstein to Offspring?

00:12:24 [Speaker Changed] I was very happy at Alliance Bernstein. I had, I was the CFO and COO at the time. You, you were there

00:12:31 [Speaker Changed] For almost two decades. Yes. Almost 20 years.

00:12:33 [Speaker Changed] Yes. And, and, and, and, and I said had a number of great roles and they really helped build out who I am as a person and as a, as a leader today and is a great firm. I have a lot of admiration still for everyone who, who works there. So I wasn’t looking, I, I followed the path of having a, a, a headhunter call, of which I first said no, I was not interested in pursuing the, the conversation, not because of anything about all springing, but just because I was happy with where I was. And then he said, well, why don’t you just look into it a little bit, read a little bit, maybe meet with, just meet with some of the people, maybe meet with someone. So a very effective headhunter in that regard. And as that conversation started to unfold, I got really excited about Offspring because I could see all of the potential that was there.

00:13:31 For those of you who like, who don’t know Offspring, and many people still don’t. We’re, our brand is only four years old, but we have 635 billion of assets under Management, 450 of which are fixed income. And nobody knows we’re one of the larger fixed income players out there because it, so there was so much potential and such a rich history of Invest teams. It was a multi boutique model. It was, it’s, it was Wells Fargo asset management that they were selling and had, they had sold, and it was about two years into its transition and there was still a lot of work both to, to do on the transition out of Wells Fargo. So all of the TSA, the getting out of all of the transaction servicing agreements, we were still, they were still in the midst of that. They were thinking about the evolution of the investment platform rebuilding out distribution. And I thought, I’ve done a lot of this so I can be really, I can really create a lot of value by going here and working with such a great team, great leadership team that was already in place and with so much potential that I just got really excited about it.

00:14:48 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really, really fascinating. So before we get to Offspring, let, let’s talk a little bit about AB for a minute. I know a lot of people who, who either work there or used to work there, the firm has evolved over the years. What’s the current relationship with, is there a parent company now? What? Wasn’t there a merger

00:15:10 [Speaker Changed] At Alliance Bernstein?

00:15:11 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. Who, who’s the

00:15:12 [Speaker Changed] Equitable,

00:15:13 [Speaker Changed] Equitable is now, is now, which is really right down the street from them, which is kind of ironic down Seventh Avenue from where the HQ used to be.

00:15:21 [Speaker Changed] So what’s interesting is Equitable is now in Alliance Bernstein’s old offices at 1345 and Alliance Bernstein has actually moved down to Hudson Yards.

00:15:31 [Speaker Changed] Oh. Which is, which is really yeah. A, a a a fascinating place as well. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Kate Burke, CEO of Offspring global Investment, discussing what it’s been like working at both Alliance Bernstein and Offspring Springing Global. I’m Barry Ritholtz, your listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

00:16:02 I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest today is Kate Burke. She’s CEO of alls springing global. The firm manages or advises on $635 billion in assets. Previously she was C-O-O-C-F-O and head of Human Capital Chief Talent Officer at Alliance Bernstein. So you’ve had very distinct jobs that I think of as so different. Chief operations officer is very different than CFO, which is so different than CEO. How do you shift from one major position to another that it’s a whole nother, like CFO is an entirely different silo than CEO?

00:16:52 [Speaker Changed] Yes. So each one of them teaches you different areas of discipline or focus, but each time I have taken on a new role, I start, I’ve started to establish a little bit of a playbook, which is, you know, people talk about your first 90 days and and there’s truth to that. The number one thing that I do is I go in and very quickly, and this goes back to the story I was telling you about human resources, is I recognize that oftentimes at the table, I’m gonna be the person with the least amount of subject matter expertise on a topic. And rather than try to fake it and act like I have all of the answers, I use a lot of inquiry to ask questions and to, and to peel back the knowledge that they have to share with me and to invite that into the conversation.

00:17:47 And then I have the confidence that the, the other parts of the organization I’ve seen that I’ve been a part of have value to add to that analysis. And it becomes really a conversation about where we’re going so that I’m partnering with the, the people in the, in that discipline to come up with what the strategy and implementation plan is. And what I think I’m good at is I’m good at focus and execution. I say a lot at all springing. There’s no shortage of good ideas. There’s a shortage of great execution because you can get, you know, I have an idea for a podcast. No, I don’t actually, but everybody has ideas, right? Right. It’s how do you get that idea into something that is tangible, that then you make that first step, you make the second step and you get it off the ground and you create the momentum and then the willingness to pivot or change direction based on the measurement of are you making the progress the way you thought and, and constantly learning. So I talk about growth mindset, how do you engage in that? And I think that that’s been what’s allowed me to be able to move into different roles is I appreciate how good the people are that I’m working with.

00:19:05 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. But you also have to be a quick study because, all right, so C-O-O-C-F-O very operationally focused. You led Bernstein private wealth not only for a couple years, but really challenging years right in the middle of the pandemic. That’s a completely different set of skills and, and set of tasks to execute. Tell us a little bit about leading Bernstein’s Private Wealth.

00:19:30 [Speaker Changed] So I do think that I’m a fairly quick study, but I work really hard to be a quick study. I put in a lot of, I put in a lot of time Funny how

00:19:38 [Speaker Changed] That works, isn’t it?

00:19:39 [Speaker Changed] It really does pay off really can help pay off. So, you know, with Bernstein Private Wealth one, it had helped that I’d been at the organization a long time. So I obviously knew the strength of the, the brand of the proprietary nature of how they invest for individuals. I’m actually still a client of theirs, not surprisingly. And I went in and in the end, so one, it’s about how do you, how, what was the Bernstein philosophy about investing for, for wealthy individuals and, and recognizing the strength and the legacy. The, the financial advisors are very proud of that business. And so the number one thing you have to recognize is don’t mess that up. Right? So how do you build on that and, and try to protect that, particularly during challenging times. Two, it is all about the talent. So there’s a consistent theme there that it’s all about the talent.

00:20:39 It was a strong leadership team and my role was to come in and help study our business during a time of cha of a time of challenge. And to do that, you do get very focused on really on, on the client. This, it was a wonderful reminder for me. I had been in sales for a long time, it was my first job back into a client facing role after I’d moved into hr. And I love the clients. And so being able to talk with clients again helps give you a lot of direction about the challenges our advisors are facing. And my role was to be there for our adv, our advisors. They, they give so much of themselves. Every financial advisor, regardless of the firm you’re working at, is investing their time and energy into the success of other people. They need someone to fill that bucket who’s doing that for them. And so my view in that role was, let me help fill that bucket. You’re under so much pressure under duress with your clients and, and, and helping them through challenging times. How can I help support you in that? So,

00:21:53 [Speaker Changed] Huh, really, really interesting. So now, now let’s move forward. You get recruited to Offspring as CEO for people who are not familiar with Offspring. Tell us a little bit about the firm, who the clients are, how, how they’ve managed to accumulate, you know, over $600 billion.

00:22:09 [Speaker Changed] Sure. So Offspring’s history is, is that it was built under Wells Fargo asset management really as a multi boutique model. So Wells Fargo had acquired brands like Montgomery, strong Capital, evergreen, and they had really functioned as, you know, sort of independent investment teams leveraging then the distribution and operations. The distribution was really twofold. And, and this is what we’re growing out, what what we’re grow leveraging to continue to grow, which was one a strengthen retail because Wells Fargo Advisors is our, is our, was our largest, is our largest client still today. And they were very focused on understanding the needs of the advisor community. And then two was an institutional business that was largely in defined benefits and other types of institutional channels. And so tho that history was there, equity is about a third of, of about a fifth probably of the assets. And then we have a liquidity business, a money markets business that is incredibly strong.

00:23:27 And then a fixed income business that’s really two pieces. One, a fixed income platform that has both credit all the way to high yield, sort of the entire curve. So my view is if you need a fixed income strategy in your portfolio, offsprings should be one of them. And then on the other side of it was a very strong brand gallard, which was stable value and really used a lot in defined benefit and contribution programs. And so we had all of those pieces, but they had all operated independent, fairly independently. And one, what’s really important for investment portfolio managers is their autonomy to make investment decisions like that is what we are, what people are buying from them is that the, that the portfolio managers that they believe in and have established the track record still have the autonomy to, to make those choices. And I believe that firmly that is croson, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t talk to each other.

00:24:32 And that you can’t create an investment platform where you’re leveraging the insights internally within all springing to benefit the totality of our clients and the totality of the investment decisions. And so that was one of the first things I started working on with John Branco, our, our head of our CIO and head of investments was we have all of these amazing capabilities through, they’ve historically worked independently, we are now all under the offspring brand. They’re all aligned with the success of Offspring as an organization. Is there something we can do as we evolve the investment platform to create more leverage across these teams? And that’s what, that’s the journey that we’ve been on with the investment teams. Hmm.

00:25:21 [Speaker Changed] Really, really interesting. You, you mentioned the money market group is separate from the fixed income group. I kind of think them a as it,

00:25:29 [Speaker Changed] It, it, we ha we separated out. I agree with you. So when I say we have over 400 billion in assets under advisement in fixed income, I’m including liquidity in that piece. So I do, that is part of the, the curve. But liquidity as is such an, in a strong, independent piece of that asset allocation for us that we often call it out because it, it’s such, it’s been such a powerful and particularly in a higher interest rate environment has had been a very strong source of, of flows and growth for us.

00:25:59 [Speaker Changed] We were, what were we over four, four point a half percent last summer and now we’re back in the high threes, like four point a half per people forget, we spent 25 years pretty much at nothing. Nothing. So four point a half percent wait safe liquid. Wow.

00:26:14 [Speaker Changed] Why would you not, why would you not have it? And you’re seeing what’s interesting is, you know, even with advisors or or with clients, they’ll, they’ll have money in a deposit account earning very low interest. And then when they’re put, they’re trying to figure out how to put it into work. The question of whether or not you wanna put it into equities at the this value, right, these, these valuations right now versus saying no, you can get a stable return off of fixed income. Fixed income was out of favor for a period of Oh, long

00:26:47 [Speaker Changed] A period

00:26:47 [Speaker Changed] Period of time. Period. Yeah. Period. I think we’re back in the age of, of fixed income for, for quite a while now where bonds should really are really well positioned to outperform and really, and our source of income, especially when you think of an aging demographic who’s looking for income, there’s the stability and safety of bonds that PR can provide you with their, those income, that income particularly they’re active, managed. So we can work through some of the unknown challenges of our current economic environment.

00:27:19 [Speaker Changed] It, it’s so interesting as people are gonna be hearing this, it’ll be around the time when lots and lots of bonuses will be hitting people’s personal accounts, which means lots of people are gonna be getting phone calls from their bank saying, Hey, I see there’s a pile of cash here,

00:27:39 [Speaker Changed] How would you like to use it?

00:27:40 [Speaker Changed] Right. And I’m al I always say, well half of that’s going to Uncle Sam can, what can you guarantee me that’s safe? And I, and I mean guarantee. And it’s like, well, you know, there are no guarantees. I’m like, all right, it’s, it’s going to, it’s gonna go to the money market fund even if it’s three eight, that’s better than some crazy covered call strategy that may or may not be there for April 15th.

00:28:05 [Speaker Changed] Exactly. So one, it’s a safe, it’s certainly always a safe place in the short term to, to put your liquidity. And then in the longer term, when you think about people’s wealth accumulation over time, in the very beginning it is simply about starting to, to grow wealth accumulating it, you’re gonna be largely in equities and not to get that kind of equity return. And then you start to move into, well now I have to start planning for retirement. So then preservation starts to become more important. You wanna protect those assets and that’s when you see people tend to move more into a more balanced portfolio. Well then they move into retirement and they need income and they want, that’s where fixed income really can be very beneficial or, or di you know, we also have a number of equity income strategies that put off a nice distribution and that’s where you wanna have an advisor or help you understand what is the income stream you need to, to live and pursue the life you want in retirement. And then the last stage is legacy and, and what do you do as a legacy planner and how do you again, go back to that preservation of those assets so that you can, whether it’s your legacy is philanthropic or around your family, you know, our view is we wanna partner with the, the wealth advisor along each parts of their, their client’s journey and know that they can turn to offspring with the right set of public market products that are beneficial to those clients.

00:29:42 [Speaker Changed] So you’re, you’re discussing a lot of relationships it sounds like, with RIAs, registered investment advisors. Tell us a little bit about the relationship you have with RIAs. Are they primarily at Wells Fargo? Are they everywhere? Give us a little bit of insight into how Wells far, how Wellspring operates.

00:30:03 [Speaker Changed] So Offspring has a very strong relationship with the Wells, Wells Fargo advisors still. And, and, and we’ve been able to grow that relationship, even post-separation, which I think people were concerned about whether that continuity would, would continue or would, would that cost some friction? Instead, they’re a tremendous partner and, and we can work with them to help Wells Fargo advisors achieve their agendas with their financial advisors. The same though is true for other intermediaries. Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Raymond James, these are all other intermediary platforms that have some offspring product. We’re looking to continue to place more the, and then we have the RIA channel, which as you know, is going through a tremendous amount of change and an investment. You’re seeing consolidation, you’re seeing aggregators of RIAs out there, you’re seeing ts you know, platforms that are providing a lot of the infrastructure

00:31:02 [Speaker Changed] Turn

00:31:03 [Speaker Changed] Asset management, thank you, that are providing a lot of the infrastructure and technology and operations that advisors need. And we’re able to partner with each part of that ecosystem all the way to the independent RIA who’s hung their shingle and built a great business. So one of the investments we made in the last year was really building out an RIA sales organization, recognizing that it’s similar to intermediary, but as those RIAs are growing and getting more sophisticated, having support of that growth with them and, and being able to help bridge, like this is what other sophisticated, larger aggregators are doing, how can we help partner with you to, to build and protect that business has been a real focus of ours. And, and that’s where we have a number of our remys, our tax managed SMA platform, separately managed account platform that is really, I think, powerful when you’re working with RIAs and, and those individual investors. So,

00:32:08 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk a little bit about what’s going on with the, the market today. By the time people hear this, it’s 2026, what is going on that’s different now for institutional and wealth clients that perhaps is different than what they were looking at five or 10 years ago?

00:32:28 [Speaker Changed] So I think one of the things we’re focused on right now is there is from the, from the curve perspective, you know, this question of whether we’re entering into stagflation where you’re seeing a lower growth still inflation high in low high interest rates that will be coming down is where do you position yourself along that curve? And rather than have it just be a long duration play, we think that investors really need to be looking at how do they take advantage of both the change in the curve. We expect the, the curve to steepen the long end of the curve to to, to steepen, particularly as central banks are figuring out how to balance the inflation at and lower interest rates to, to try to protect growth. You also have heavy debt servicing loads. So while all of them are perfectly solvent and, and can and of develop company and manage that, they care about those interest costs, it’s a big part of any, any government’s budget. And it’s a growing part. And I think that that changes some of the behavior of the curve in the long run where we would expect that that longer end tail of it to continue to, to go higher. So playing that intermediate part of the curve we think is gonna be really important and you’re gonna want high quality credit driven companies to do that. So credit research is really gonna matter more versus just playing the duration play. Coming

00:34:10 [Speaker Changed] Up, we continue our conversation with Kate Burke, CEO of Offspring global investing, discussing the state of investing markets today. I’m Barry Riol, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

00:34:37 I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Kate Burke, she’s CEO of all Spring Global investments, helping to manage about $635 billion in client assets. Previously she ran multiple divisions at Alliance Bernstein, including as C-F-O-C-O-O and head of the private wealth group. So when we look at active management in equities, it’s kind of fallen out of favor. They’re not, they don’t help themselves by pretty regularly underperforming half each year. Half of the active fund managers underperform their benchmark and if you go out to five or 10 years, it’s much worse. But we really don’t see the same sort of performance in bonds. It seems that active bond managers really bring a lot of, dare I say, alpha to the table. Yes. Tell us a little bit about the active side of, of bond management at Offspring.

00:35:36 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so at all springing over 90% of our fixed active fixed income outperform on a three, five and 10 year basis. Wow. So active management really matters in fixed income. And I’m happy to go back to why I believe it in equities as well. But, but focusing on fixed income for a moment, I think part of the strength of the all springing platform is the deep credit research that we do. And that means understanding the specific issuances and the companies that are doing it so that you’re making the right choices. And we do run the risk of, and you see a little bit of this in some of the private markets, you know, this question of of credit and, and the strength of the underlying businesses. If we have challenges in the economy, that’s where it comes out. And so making those strong, having a strong view on, on quality credit, we think is really important because it allows you to do two things. One, we talk about income, we think you’re gonna get, most of the return is gonna come out of yield. So searching for that income, being able to harvest that income is really important. And why we like the intermediate part of the curve is the duration play. So still being nimble enough to adjust to a changing rate environment, either led by the central banks or driven by inflation. How do you position yourself along that, that part of the curve to, to be able to capitalize on that return?

00:37:05 [Speaker Changed] What, what are you guys seeing on the private alt side? Private debt, private equity. Private credit. There has been a land rush to that space. I get the sense that offspring has become a little skeptical about that area.

00:37:19 [Speaker Changed] Look, I I private credit is a perfectly good asset class and it, it creates a lot of value, certainly for the economy. It was, it was, it grew out of the need of the banks pulling back on their ability to to to make those loans. But it has gotten to be a crowded space. You have, you have a number of new players that have entered into the private credit market. If you look at future returns, what happens with basic law of supply and demand, you have a lot more people supplying liquidity to that part of the, of the private credit market. Wanting to make those loans means those spreads are likely to come down. They’re gonna be competing origination is really gonna matter in that space. And so I think we’re going to see similar to asset managers, those who are really good at it and those who end up not being as well positioned for it.

00:38:10 So who you, who you own there and who you partner there I think is, is really important. We’re choosing despite many of our similar size peers seeking out either through acquisition of our partnership with private credit firms, I’ll never say never there could be a partnership with someone that creates a really interesting strategy that’s specific for the client. But you’re seeing I think some challenges even with what’s happened so far where people don’t understand the product, they don’t understand the liquidity, they don’t understand the fee structure. And so that’s a lot of time you have to be spending with those advisors, trying to educate them and con and convince them that that’s the right decision to be making versus saying no, buy your sleeve of, of li liquid, you know, the public liquid fixed income products and then buy your sleeve of private credit with whoever you choose. Seems to me to be one of the paths that, that people may pursue. I

00:39:11 [Speaker Changed] I’m always surprised when people talk about not understanding the liquidity. Just go back a couple of years ago to beat credit at, at Blackstone where a bunch of advisors tried to head for the exits before the year end marks happened. Hey, which part of locked up for five years is confusing In year two it’s, you got three see ya in 2029. So

00:39:37 [Speaker Changed] It’s, it’s, look, it requires a sophisticated investor to understand how you’re laddering into illiquid assets and and what does, does

00:39:45 [Speaker Changed] That mean, not mean sophisticated, right? Seven year lockup is is seven years. Oh, so I get my money back in year two, no seven year lockup. And yet people seem to not really take, take it very seriously.

00:39:59 [Speaker Changed] So that’s why we are staying in the public side. We think liquidity is really important and and provides an important part of your asset allocation. I’m not arguing against cl clients having a piece of alternatives in their portfolio, but understanding the structure of what that alternative’s makeup is, whether it’s private equity, private credit, real estate, understanding those terms, understanding how that access to how and, and your comfort level that in times of illiquidity your asset allocation may be much higher to those asset classes than you originally intended because you’re gonna have to use your liquid assets in a way that you had not originally planned. And that creates the, the danger that an individual investor in particular has in thinking about how they’re adding that into their investment portfolio. And that’s where a really good advisor is going to be helpful. But they are also all in their own education of this now.

00:41:02 And so who each advisor advisors talk about how much they’re needing to learn about private credit, about tax loss management like that, we’re asking more and more out of these advisors. So we think you can still get a really good risk adjusted return by a pretty traditional portfolio in the long run. And if you look at what the s and p 500 has done for the last 30, 40 years, not too shabby. Right? Not too shabby. And if you invest in that in the long run and have enough liquidity to live through the downturns and leave those in place, that has proven to be a winning strategy for a very long time.

00:41:39 [Speaker Changed] And, and we’re just, if you look at rolling 15 year periods, we just finished one of the best 15 year periods Yes. In history. People forget what it’s like when everything hits the fan and liquidity is really valuable. Yeah.

00:41:54 [Speaker Changed] I’m not, I’m just not sure what we’re trying to solve for, for the client in saying that they need to have a significant allocation.

00:42:01 [Speaker Changed] So you’re not in the 30, 40, 50% illiquid alts camp at all? No,

00:42:06 [Speaker Changed] Definitely, definitely not personally and definitely not what I would be recommending others to do. Unless you’re at the really ultra high net worth part of the curve where you have plenty of liquidity in that 30% because you just have so much in that account overall. The

00:42:22 [Speaker Changed] 70% is such a big number

00:42:23 [Speaker Changed] Because Right. So that, but, but for many people that’s not their reality. Right. And so I think we have to be appropriately cautious. We want more people investing for their future. I do think it’s an incredible, you know, that generating, creating wealth for yourself, you know, outside of my Seth Bernstein used to say this outside of your, your, your doctor, your financial advisor is probably the next most important person in your overall wellbeing outside of obviously your family. Like in terms of the professional advice that you’re getting. And, and, and I think that that’s really important to understand that indi there’s so many different individuals. That’s why I believe in customization at scale in the long run is that every individual, you know, target dates work for retirement when you have similar people in collected together to make a target date decision. But, but the diversification is not just the year you’re planning on retiring, it’s, well, what are the assets you have? How big is your family? What are your other needs that you need to be planning for? So how do you start to create customized solutions for the individual investor and help the financial advisor create those individual solutions at scale, I think is gonna be the next wave in wealth management.

00:43:43 [Speaker Changed] So you’re, what I’m hearing is if you’re an aspirational investor, if you’re a high net worth investor, if you’re a family office or if you’re an institution endowment foundation, those are very distinct needs and you should have very distinct solutions to your problems. Correct. Hmm. Really, really interesting. I only have you for a few more minutes, I want to get to some other questions before we run out of time. I love your quote, what does it mean, quote, being the easiest asset manager to work with. What does that mean in practice and, and how are you driving that philosophy? So

00:44:19 [Speaker Changed] Think about who you have loyalty to. Do you, are you loyal to an airline? Are you loyal to a hotel chain? Why are you, are you loyal to a grocery store? You’re loyal to them because you find the consistency of the experience you’re having with them makes you want to go back and it’s usually pleasurable and easy and you get what you want when you want it at the right price, with the right level of service to bring you satisfaction. Clients are no different in asset management. And we have within asset management, a lot of regulatory, you have client reporting, you have complexity of portfolios, like we were just talking about that and all. And, and you then have challenges in sometimes in an investment strategy or in the markets generally where you’re looking for good advice. So for offspring, what does it mean? It means accessibility, it means accessibility to our portfolio managers.

00:45:16 So if you, if you’re, if you have a question that you need to answer for a client and you need to get a portfolio manager or someone on their team get that answer quickly, you get it, we’re able to provide that for you. It’s also knowing our clients and getting the right information into their hands at the right time. Leveraging technology. It’s also about all of the backend, the complexity of reporting, the complexity of client onboarding. No one wants to fill out 30 forms to open up, up an account or to start a new investment. How do we create the ease of engagement with offspring for the intermediate, whether it’s an institution or the client that their money is put to work quickly and efficiently and easily in a way they understand. And that’s largely level leveraged by really good client relationships and then a technology infrastructure that’s being built to get them what they want when they want it. So we’re investing a lot in our technology platform right now to help achieve

00:46:15 [Speaker Changed] That. Since, since you brought up technology, I I’m legally obligated to ask about ai, what do you think about artificial intelligence as applied to the wealth management industry? How is offspring using ai?

00:46:27 [Speaker Changed] It’s, so I think of AI in sort of, or or strategy around AI in really three ways. One, we’ve turned it on in what I just call general efficiency tools like chat, GBT ask a question, you’re gonna get a better answer than if you put it into Google or helping you do first drafts of writing. Like there’s a lot of general efficiency kinds of tools that are out there that you could, like really anybody can be, can use fairly quickly without a lot of training. The second phase for us is really about partnership and who are we working with, who’s also investing in ai who will help us leverage solutions to help really mine data, it’s all about data at the bottom. You need really clean data. So we’re also spending a lot of time making sure we have clean data, but you need, if you’re gonna query data to give you an answer, the data better be right.

00:47:18 Otherwise you’re gonna get the hallucinations and false findings. So who we’re trying to leverage good partners in terms of building out our, our AI capabilities. And then the third pillar of it is really our own agents and, and, and the ent AI and, and what is it that we specifically can build inside offspring that will help us answer very specific questions associated with our own workflow and our own clients and trying to invest very specifically in business cases. There either in any of those scenarios though, you need to be able to put the business issue and, and the technology you need to be able to be able to translate between the two if you wanna be effective with it.

00:48:05 [Speaker Changed] And I, I feel compelled to ask you a question about culture. Not only because you were running a wealth management shop right in the middle of pandemic, but you’ve talked about the importance of culture and how significant it is for there to be a unifying philosophy for firm. Tell us a little bit about the culture of offspring and and how do you maintain that?

00:48:28 [Speaker Changed] So first all the, and what our cultural surveys have have conveyed to us is that the client centricity, the client focus at offspring is so high. I mean it’s, everything we do is are, we put what is in the best interest of the client. And I think if you have that as your North star from a cultural perspective and as a fiduciary, that means you’re gonna do the right thing. And that, and that then creates a lot of pull through, whether it’s in risk management or in client servicing, that all is really meaningful. Two, we, we have a nice culture. Like I think being, I think being positive, optimistic, nice to each other is really important. You wanna bring, you wanna build comradery, especially when you’re building a new organization. There are a lot of difficult things we have, we had to tackle internally and that we’re looking to build together.

00:49:22 So comradery and focus is really, I think, important. And then the third part of the stool to me is always this, always be learning is this credible challenge culture, right? Which is very important where we can all sit around the table and not agree. That’s the beauty of investing. That’s the beauty of any, any diverse set of people is that you’re gonna get differences of opinions and we should be able to share those opinions, debate those and get to a conclusion and then move forward. But you have to have credible challenge, you have to have it public and in the room, not in the conversation after the conversation. And so that’s something that we’re really focused on as we’re bringing, you know, the, these different parts of, of, of all springing together to work more closely is everyone has a voice and a seat at the table to express that their perspective. Doesn’t mean you get what you want, but but, but we’re, but we wanna hear it because that will help us make better decisions for our clients.

00:50:23 [Speaker Changed] Credible challenge. I I like that phrase. So last question before we get to our favorite questions. What do you think investors are not talking about but should be? Could be a asset or a geography policy. Okay. What’s out there that, that just isn’t getting enough attention? So

00:50:39 [Speaker Changed] AI is amazing in one way, but the other part of AI that I think has not gotten a lot of conversation yet is how much energy it uses. Oh really? And the need for the energy grid. There’s a lot of infrastructure build that’s gonna have to happen for the dream of AI to be successful. And if we aren’t able to catch up our energy infrastructure, then some of the dream of AI is going to be tampered simply because we don’t have enough energy to run it and individual consumer bills are gonna go through the roof, which is not gonna be palatable either. So to me it’s energy around AI needs more debate and discussion, huh? Yeah.

00:51:17 [Speaker Changed] And it’s already happening. We’re already seeing Yeah. Pockets of energy bills going through the roof. Exactly. Alright, let’s jump to our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests. Starting with mentors. Who are your early mentors who helped shape your career?

00:51:30 [Speaker Changed] So one of my earliest mentors was at Tommy Hilfiger, woman named Kathleen Gannon and another woman named Lynn Shanahan. They were just two powerhouse women early in my career who made me, helped me believe in myself and, and my capability set the other, the other, can I shift the question quickly? Sure. What I like to talk about is my board of directors, which is a concept of that as, as you work through your career, you should be aware of the people that you’re engaging with and how they can help you make good decisions in totality around your life. So as

00:52:05 [Speaker Changed] You, you’re not referring to your corporate board of directors? No personal,

00:52:07 [Speaker Changed] Your personal board. Personal board of directors.

00:52:09 I love that idea. So when I was a young mother, I needed other young mothers to be a part of my board who could help me work through like the challenges of work and, and, and rearing young children. As you progress in your career, some of them have been on my board forever. My parents, my, you know, my siblings are, are always available to me, but I have people that I’ve grown up with who have taken very different career arcs, but are really good with people or are really good with financials or really good with strategy decisions. And who can I look at outside of my, you know, people that I work with who provide all of that to me. But no, I have outside counsel and, and know that people come in and off that board at, depending on the phase I am in my own life. And so how do I, how do I leverage? So now I’m trying to build a better personal board of directors as a CEO saying, who are other people who have to experience these same sorts of experiences that I’m going through and how can I build relationships with them to help me learn and grow and gain more so I can be more value at it.

00:53:11 [Speaker Changed] Really interesting. Let’s talk about books. Yep. What are you reading now? What are some of your favorites?

00:53:16 [Speaker Changed] I I love historical fiction. I’m reading Trust right now by Hernan Diaz, I think is the last name. If I got that wrong, you can edit it out out. He, it’s about the, it won the Pulitzer Prize. It was, it’s about the, the roaring 1920s. It’s four disparate views of, and it shows how people can believe their own narrative of if they’re adding good to the world. So it’s like a robber baron is in it there, you know, there’s people who are involved in the evolution of what’s happening and some of them view that what they’re doing is good for society when in reality the society, you know, we went through a great depression as a result of it. Is

00:53:57 [Speaker Changed] That historical fiction or historical nonfiction,

00:54:01 [Speaker Changed] That’s an interesting view of it. But it’s very, but it’s, it’s fun to read and it’s, and it’s written by an author who’s writing it in four really distinctive voices too. So I enjoy it. Huh.

00:54:12 [Speaker Changed] Sounds, sounds interesting. What about entertainment? What are you either watching or listening to these days? What are you streaming? So

00:54:18 [Speaker Changed] When I am just winding down, I like a, a good hang with Amy Poer. I want her to be my friend. I want most of the people on that show to be my friend. She just brings such energy and positivity and humor to it that it’s always a, a good one to, to listen and, and wind down to. And then TV wise, I just watched Stranger Things with my children when they were back home from break. And I love Stranger things ’cause I’m literally the age of those kids, right? Like in the show I’m like, this is my, I’m like watching my youth play back to me, riding my bikes, building forts. My parents had no idea where we were. Thankfully we didn’t have any demic ordinances a after us. But like, it, it is just, it’s, it’s super fun. Nossal nostalgic and I, and, and then a great story line as well of teamwork and perseverance and fight and all that good stuff that,

00:55:12 [Speaker Changed] That’s next up in Mike Q. That’s really good. Our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college graduate interested in a career in, it doesn’t matter, fixed income, investing in, in finance.

00:55:25 [Speaker Changed] One is network, network, network, network. I got my first job because I was trying to get a different job. I was talking to someone to make another introduction and ended up getting a job with that person instead. So you never know. You really have to lean into to meeting people and being open to where the conversation takes you. And two, what’s different now versus when I was growing up in it is there’s so much information available with this podcast. There’s so many places to learn and be informed. So really take control of your career and always be learning and, and find the area that is most interesting if you’re, if you lean towards equities, lean towards equities. If you lean towards fixed income, but teach yourself, don’t expect someone to teach it to you.

00:56:12 [Speaker Changed] And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing today might have been useful 25 or 30 years ago when you were first getting started?

00:56:20 [Speaker Changed] I mean, this is true for all the power of compounding

00:56:24 [Speaker Changed] That comes up all the time,

00:56:26 [Speaker Changed] Every time. I mean it is, and

00:56:27 [Speaker Changed] You just don’t see it when you’re younger.

00:56:28 [Speaker Changed] You just don’t understand it when you’re younger. And so, and investing consistently, dollar averaging through the good times, through the bad times, if you have a consistency approach, you can build a long-term durable portfolio.

00:56:42 [Speaker Changed] Thank you Kate, for being so generous with your time. We have. Thank you for having me. My pleasure. We have been speaking with Kate Burke. She’s the CEO of alls springing Global Investments. If you enjoy these questions, well be sure to check out any of the 600 previous discussions we’ve had over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. And be sure to check out my new book, how Not to invest the ideas, numbers, and behavior that destroys wealth and how to avoid them at your favorite bookstore. I’m Barry Als. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

~~~

 

 

 

The post Transcript: Kate Burke, Allspring Global Investments, CEO appeared first on The Big Picture.

A Month Of Shock And Awe: These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets In January

Zero Hedge -

A Month Of Shock And Awe: These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets In January

Earlier today, Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen released his monthly performance review looking at how markets performed in January. As Jim Reid writes, "January managed to both shock and awe in various ways, yet still delivered broad based gains across all global assets in our monthly performance review when measured in USD terms—a genuinely rare occurrence. It was perhaps fitting then, that the month ended with extraordinary volatility: silver saw its largest daily fall since 1980 (36% at the intraday lows,  26.3% at the close), while Gold recorded its biggest one day decline since 2013 ( 8.95%)."

We'll do a more detailed summary below, but here are the highlights:

  • The most striking feature in January was the breadth of the rally. Despite an array of risks around Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and Fed independence, nearly every major asset was still in positive territory.

  • Equities did well across the board, as positive data surprises continued to power risk assets. Indeed, the ISM services index hit a 14-month high, whilst the US jobs report showed unemployment ticking lower. In turn, the S&P 500 (+1.4% in total return terms) briefly poked above 7,000 for the first time, whilst the MSCI EM index (+8.9%) had its best monthly performance since November 2022.

  • Most notably, it was a historic and extraordinary month for precious metals, even with the late pullback. In fact, gold (+13.3%) saw its best monthly performance since September 1999, and silver (+18.9%) posted a 9th consecutive monthly gain.

  • Other commodities did very well, and the geopolitical risk pushed Brent crude oil (+16.2%) to $70.69/bbl, marking its biggest monthly jump in four years.

  • Bitcoin was one of the few major assets to end the month lower, down -10.8% to $78,197. That’s a 4th consecutive monthly decline for Bitcoin, which hasn’t happened since before the pandemic.

  • The US Dollar also struggled, particularly after Trump was asked about the decline, and he said “No, I think it’s great”. So the US Dollar weakened against every other G10 currency, and the dollar index also saw its worst 4-day slide since the Liberation Day turmoil last April.

  • Finally, there were some huge moves in Japan, where a snap election was announced for February 8. JGBs sold off amidst election pledges for more consumption tax cuts, with the 10yr yield up +18bps on the month, and the 30yr yield up another +24bps.

So January was an action-packed month. With all that’s going on, February is unlikely to be quiet.

With summary in mind, here are the details: 

Markets put in a strong performance in January, as positive data surprises continued to power risk assets, with the S&P 500 briefly poking above 7,000 for the first time. But just as we saw in 2025, those headline gains masked significant volatility under the surface, as geopolitical risk rose significantly, including over Venezuela, Iran and Greenland. So that meant Brent crude oil (+16.2%) saw its biggest monthly jump in 4 years, particularly after Trump warned that a “massive Armada” was heading to Iran, which raised speculation about a US strike.

Moreover, precious metals had their biggest surge in decades, with gold prices (+13.3%) seeing their biggest monthly jump since September 1999, despite the sharp pullback at the end of the month. All that came amidst growing pressure on the US Dollar, which saw its biggest 4-day decline since the Liberation Day turmoil last year, weakening against every other G10 currency in January.

Month in Review - The high-level macro overview

Geopolitics dominated the headlines in January, with the year getting off to an eventful start. The first major event was on January 3, as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces and taken to New York. There were immediately questions about what the market implications would be, as the US EIA have said that Venezuela has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, with 17% of the global total. So investors had to assess whether supply disruption in the short term might be outweighed by higher production in the long term. But outside of Venezuelan assets and some US oil companies, the wider market reaction was fairly limited.

However, events in Iran led to a much clearer oil price reaction, with Brent crude ending the month above $70/bbl again. That came as speculation mounted about some kind of US strike on Iran, and Trump himself posted on Jan 13 that he had cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials, whilst calling on protestors to take over the institutions. Then on Jan 14, Reuters reported that some personnel had been advised to leave the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. That was significant because the base previously saw an Iranian missile attack last June, so the story added to fears that some sort of escalation might take place imminently. However, Trump later downplayed the magnitude of tensions, saying “we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped… And there’s no plan for executions”. However, while this led to a brief pullback in oil prices, they then resumed their ascent as trump posted on Jan 28 that a “massive Armada is heading to Iran.” So by the end of January, Brent crude was up +16.2% to $70.69/bbl, having seen its biggest monthly jump since January 2022.

The other major geopolitical story surrounded Greenland, which escalated as the month went on. For instance on Jan 14, Trump posted that "The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security.” Then on Jan 17, Trump threatened a 10% tariff on several European countries from Feb 1, which would rise to 25% in June, unless “a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland”. That led to a serious risk-off move, with the S&P 500 down -2.1% on the following session. There was even speculation about more serious European retaliation, with German finance minister Lars Klingbeil said that “We are constantly experiencing new provocations, we are constantly experiencing new antagonism, which President Trump is seeking, and here we Europeans must make it clear that the limit has been reached”. However, on Jan 21, Trump then posted that “we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.” He also said that the Feb 1 tariffs wouldn’t proceed. So that led to a market recovery, with the S&P 500 hitting another all-time high again on Jan 27, and still ending the month +1.4% higher in total return terms 

Otherwise, the Federal Reserve were in the spotlight in January, particularly after the Department of Justice began a criminal investigation that revived questions around central bank independence. That also added to the upward pressure on precious metals, with gold prices moving higher throughout the month, ultimately closing up +13.3% in its best monthly performance since September 1999. If anything, that underplays the volatility, as gold prices hit an all-time intraday record of $5,595/oz on Jan 29, before pulling back sharply to close the month at $4,894/oz, including its biggest daily decline on Jan 30 (-8.95%) since April 2013. That surge in gold prices also occurred alongside a fresh move lower for the US Dollar, with the dollar index down -1.4% in January, which included the biggest 4-day slide since the Liberation Day turmoil last April. That accelerated after Trump himself was asked about the decline, and he said “No, I think it’s great”. However, the moves stabilised after Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the “strong dollar policy” the next day in a CNBC appearance. Finally on Jan 30, it was also announced that Kevin Warsh had been nominated by Trump to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Despite the volatility of global events in January, risk assets still put in a strong performance overall. In part, that was thanks to upbeat global data, which was still broadly robust. For instance in the US, the ISM services index hit a 14-month high of 54.4 in December. Then the jobs report showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% in December. Meanwhile in Europe, inflation was a bit weaker than expected, which meant expectations rose that the ECB might deliver another rate cut this year. And Euro Area growth for Q4 also surprised on the upside, at a +0.3% pace. So most of the major global equity indices still advanced in January.

Finally in Japan, there were further significant market moves. That came as a snap election was announced for February 8, with JGBs selling off amidst election pledges for more consumption tax cuts. That led to a surge in long-end yields, with the 30yr yield closing at 3.86% on Jan 20, its highest since that maturity was first launched, before coming down to end the month at 3.63%. The 10yr yield also reached its highest since 1999, closing at 2.35% on Jan 20 as well, before ending the month at 2.24%. But even with the pullback, the 10yr yield was still up +18bps on the month, and the 30yr yield was up +24bps. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan delivered a somewhat hawkish-leaning decision, as they kept rates on hold, but they also raised their inflation outlook, whilst the outlook report reiterated their desire to keep hiking rates.

Which assets saw the biggest gains in January?

  • Precious metals: It was a historic month for precious metals, with gold (+13.3%) rising to $4,894/oz, in its strongest monthly performance since September 1999. Meanwhile, silver (+18.9%) rose to $85.20/oz.
  • Oil and gas: Geopolitical risks meant Brent crude oil moved up +16.2% in January, rising to $70.69/bbl. That reversed a run of 5 consecutive monthly declines, and was the biggest monthly jump since January 2022. Natural gas also rose, with US natural gas futures up +18.2%, whilst European natural gas futures were up +39.5%, their biggest monthly jump since June 2022.
  • Equities: It was another strong month for global equities, with the S&P 500 (+1.4%), the STOXX 600 (+3.2%), the Nikkei (+5.9%) and the MSCI EM index (+8.9%) all rising in total return terms. For the MSCI EM index, it was the best monthly performance since November 2022.
  • Euro sovereigns: With inflation surprising on the downside and markets pricing a growing likelihood of an ECB rate cut this year, Euro sovereigns were up +0.7% in total return terms.

Which assets saw the biggest losses in January?

  • US Dollar: The dollar index fell -1.4% in January, with the dollar itself weakening against every other G10 currency. At one point in January, the Euro moved above $1.20 for the first time since 2021, before ultimately closing at $1.185.

And visually (note bitcoin is not among the assets tracked by DB or it would have been ugly);

More in the full note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:20

Musk's X Office In Paris Raided By Cybercrime Unit As Brussels Becomes More Unhinged

Zero Hedge -

Musk's X Office In Paris Raided By Cybercrime Unit As Brussels Becomes More Unhinged

One week after the European Commission opened a new formal investigation into Elon Musk's X under the Digital Services Act (DSA) and expanded a separate probe launched in December 2023, X's Paris office was raided by France's cybercrime unit as part of an investigation into the distribution of sexual deepfakes and Holocaust denial content.

"A search is being carried out at the French premises of X by the cybercrime unit of the Paris public prosecutor's office, together with @CyberGEND and @Europol , as part of the investigation opened in January 2025," the Paris prosecutors' office wrote on X early Tuesday.

The Paris public prosecutor's office also said it is leaving the X platform and will post exclusively on Reid Hoffman's LinkedIn and Meta-owned Instagram.

In a statement, the public prosecutor's office said that both Elon Musk and Linda Yaccarino (former X CEO) had been summoned for voluntary questioning "in their capacity as de facto and de jure managers of the X platform at the time of the events."

The prosecutor's office set the date for April 20, a day frequently associated with Musk, suggesting the activists chose it as a pointed jab.

Back to the X message: "Find us on Lkd and Insta." What a ridiculous statement from the prosecutor's office. It only reinforces the idea that this is pure political theater, emblematic of Europe's left-wing, unhinged censorship regime targeting a U.S. billionaire who has done more to uphold free speech than anyone else in the West.

X previously described the probe's widening last year as "politically-motivated"... The prosecutor's office said it was examining "alleged complicity" in offences related to the platform, including the spreading of child abuse images and sexually explicit deepfakes via the AI chatbot on X called "Grok."

Yet, no investigation into other chatbots? 

Musk has been outraged by the Brussels bureaucrats ...

It only appears that the censorship cartel in the EU has borrowed ideas from 20th-century Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler...

Within the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials have criticized EU internet policies.

"The EU should be supporting free speech, not attacking American companies over garbage," Vice President JD Vance recently said.

Rubio has warned the left-wing Brussels bureaucrats that "days of censoring Americans online are over."

With President Trump and Musk now buddies again, we suspect the president will fire off a Truth Social post about Brussels bureaucrats, and Musk will be commenting on X.

It's clear what the Europeans are trying to do...

What's happening in Europe is regulatory overreach that targets American free-speech innovation, and in the world of the Trump era, Brussels and its censorship cartel must be defeated.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:05

Nintendo Profit Misses As Soaring Memory Prices Could Become Major Headache

Zero Hedge -

Nintendo Profit Misses As Soaring Memory Prices Could Become Major Headache

Dark storm clouds have gathered over Nintendo since the start of December, as investor concerns mount over tariffs, rising memory prices, and chatter about soft US holiday sales. The stock in Tokyo remains about one-third below its August peak.

Earnings on Tuesday reconfirmed the gloom after Nintendo reported third-quarter operating income that missed the average Wall Street estimate tracked by Bloomberg.

Switch 2 sold 7.01 million units in the December quarter, beating Bloomberg Consensus estimates, but the operating income of 155.21 billion yen, versus the 180.7 billion expected, raised investor concern.

Trade tariffs, combined with rising component costs, especially the explosion in the price of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), are pressuring thin hardware margins for the electronics company.

Goldman analyst Maho Kamiya warned clients in late Decemeber that concerns about rising memory prices and the absence of top-down tailwinds have sent Nintendo shares spiraling. The stock has yet to recover since the warning...

We have outlined a growing list of electronics companies pressured by soaring memory prices, even prompting industry insiders to tell consumers that front-running purchases of PCs, TVs, and other devices that use HBM should be "done now" because the memory shortage, caused by data center buildouts, will only get worse from here.

Snapshot of the third quarter (courtsey of Bloomberg):

  • Operating income 155.21 billion yen, +23% y/y, estimate 180.7 billion yen (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Net income 159.93 billion yen, +24% y/y, estimate 147.5 billion yen

  • Net sales 806.32 billion yen, +86% y/y, estimate 815.7 billion yen

"Switch 2 sales figures can be seen as okay, but it would be hard to call them solid," Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda wrote in a note.

Yasuda said, "Looking ahead, concerns such as rising component prices remain, and how the company will once again control costs will be the key point to watch."

According to research firm TrendForce, HBM shortages are fueling major risks for Nintendo as chipmakers prioritize AI data-center memory, potentially limiting console production.

Hence, our most recent note:

Nintendo maintained full-year guidance:

  • Sees FX assumption 150 yen/USD, saw 140

  • Sees FX assumption 170 yen/EUR, saw 160

  • Still sees operating income 370.00 billion yen, estimate 419.16 billion yen

  • Still sees net income 350.00 billion yen, estimate 412.42 billion yen

  • Still sees net sales 2.25 trillion yen, estimate 2.37 trillion yen

  • Sees Switch 2 hardware sales 19.00 million units

  • Sees Switch 2 software sales 48.00 million units

  • Still sees original Switch hardware sales 4.00 million units

  • Still sees original Switch software sales 125.00 million units

  • Still sees dividend 181.00 yen, estimate 204.14 yen

While it may be a golden time for memory makers as prices skyrocket, it is only a matter of time before consumer electronics see price surges and even the risk of limited production. Welcome to the era of AI data centers: the HBM shortage is expected to persist into 2027.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 07:45

Chinese Oil Firms Turn To Iran To Replace Venezuelan Crude

Zero Hedge -

Chinese Oil Firms Turn To Iran To Replace Venezuelan Crude

Via The Cradle

China's teapot refiners are buying discounted Iranian crude to replace the loss of supplies from Venezuela following Washington's violent takeover of the South American nation's oil, Reuters reported Monday.

"The drawdown of Iranian oil held in storage is making up for the drop in Venezuelan supply to the world's largest crude importer," the news agency wrote, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.

via Reuters

Venezuelan oil shipments to China have fallen drastically since US President Donald Trump imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers attempting to leave the country in December.

On January 3rd, US forces bombed the Venezuelan capital, abducted Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, and took control of the country's oil. Washington announced it was placing Venezuela's oil revenues in accounts in Qatar under White House control.

Trump has allowed global trading firms Vitol and Trafigura to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. However, Beijing-owned firm PetroChina has halted its oil purchases from Caracas amid the uncertainty.

Beijing's independent refiners have responded by stepping up purchases of Iranian heavy crude stored in bonded storage tanks in China and on ships at steep discounts, the sources told Reuters.

Additional Chinese purchases of Iranian Heavy and Pars crude grades are expected in February and March, one of the two sources added. The refiners can purchase Iranian Heavy crude at discounts of about $12 per barrel, as Iran is faced with few willing buyers due to US sanctions.

Russian Urals trade at a discount of $11 to $12 per barrel, also due to US sanctions. With Washington's permission, Vitol is offering Chinese buyers discounts of roughly $5 per barrel for Venezuelan crude.

China's imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 394,000 barrels per day (bpd), around four percent of Beijing's total seaborne crude imports, before the US takeover.

On Saturday, Trump said India will begin buying Venezuelan oil, helping to replace the loss of Russian supplies amid US tariff threats. “We've already made that deal, the concept of the deal,” Trump told reporters while traveling aboard Air Force One.

Last year, after Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil, New Delhi stopped buying oil from Caracas. India and China have been forced to shift their purchases of oil in recent years due to aggressive sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Iran.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 07:20

10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning train reads:

Why US stocks don’t care a jot about Greenland, trade wars or global aggro: Does nothing matter to financial markets? Is this irrational exuberance run amok? Not really. Markets are mostly rational in ignoring most of the headlines slushing around. And they have a template to follow from last year. It seems a lifetime ago, but we have seen this movie before. (FT Alphaville)

Former Fed Researcher Claudia Sahm explains Kevin Warsh’s economic philosophy: He’s long on criticisms and short on solutions, which is troubling for someone who served as a Fed official during the largest financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. (Stay-At-Home-Macro)

Bitcoin down for fourth consecutive month, its longest losing streak since 2018: Bitcoin also suffered roughly $800 million in liquidations and ETF outflows in the past 24 hours. (Sherwood)

He’s Wall Street’s Biggest Showman. Should You Trust Him? Dan Ives has gone mainstream as Wall Street’s highest-profile stock analyst. Less well known is his growing set of overlapping business interests. (Barron’s)

A mysterious delay in the Supreme Court tariffs case: The Trump administration, though the underdog, will find each passing week an encouraging sign. (Washington Post)

The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline: America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year. (Bloomberg free)

Moltbook is a human-free Reddit clone where AI agents discuss cybersecurity and philosophy: Moltbook might be the strangest corner of the internet right now. It’s a Reddit-style social network where more than 35,000 150,000 1,146,946 AI agents talk to each other without any human involvement. The visual interface exists purely for humans to observe; agents communicate entirely through the API. (Decoder)

The Handyman: In the parking lot that defines America, Donald Trump’s darkest agenda is still unfolding, one hour at a time. (Slate)

The Man Who Broke Physics: Even before competing in his first Olympics, 21-year-old Ilia Malinin has transformed the sport of figure skating. (The Atlantic)

Bad Bunny and Kendrick Lamar win big in Grammys ceremony filled with anti-ICE sentiment: Musicians delivered impassioned speeches during a star-packed night that saw Lamar become the most awarded rapper of all time. (The Guardian)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

The Average Effective Tariff Rate

Source: Apollo

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Europe's Russian Gas Ban Is Set To Trigger New Wave Of LNG Tanker Demand

Zero Hedge -

Europe's Russian Gas Ban Is Set To Trigger New Wave Of LNG Tanker Demand

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The European Union’s plan to ban LNG imports from Russia will prompt a surge in demand for LNG carriers to the tune of 30 new vessels, a senior Vortexa analyst said ahead of the LNG Qatar gathering that starts today.

According to Ashley Sherman, senior LNG analyst at the company, if the EU sanctions leave currently unsanctioned Yamal LNG free to deliver liquefied gas to European buyers, at least 30 new low ice-class or non-ice-class LNG carriers to satisfy demand for the fuel from the second-largest importing region after Asia.

In December last year, the European Union agreed a legally binding, gradual reduction in both LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia, eventually resulting in a full ban on these exports, with the deadlines set for the end of 2026 for LNG and the autumn of 2027 for pipeline gas.

Last month, the European Council gave the final approval to the ban.

It also gave EU members until March to “prepare national plans to diversify gas supplies and identify potential challenges in replacing Russian gas.”

Hungary and Slovakia have protested the move on the grounds it would raise their energy costs to unacceptable levels.

The Yamal LNG facility, operated by Novatek, has been excluded from direct sanctions so far due to the Europea Union’s strong demand for gas, but the EU has sanctioned vessels loading from the Western Siberian LNG plant.

Novatek’s second LNG plant, however, Arctic LNG 2, along with Gazprom’s Portovaya LNG plant, are under Western sanctions.

They still export liquefied gas to China, despite the sanctions on both production facilities and LNG carriers servicing them.

Meanwhile, the EU imported record volumes of LNG last month amid harsh winter weather, with the total calculated at 12.7 billion cu m, Russia’s TASS news agency reported, citing figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 06:30

Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0? ...May Involve Russian Drones With Crosshairs On US Homeland

Zero Hedge -

Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0? ...May Involve Russian Drones With Crosshairs On US Homeland

A Russian military-focused Telegram channel, Rybar, published an assessment that warned President Donald Trump's gunboat diplomacy and the re-posturing of the U.S. Department of War toward the Western Hemisphere could generate drone threat risks to the US Homeland

"Given how the Americans are acting now, the main question is not whether the United States will strike Cuba, but when and how it will do so. Cuba, along with Venezuela and Nicaragua, has long stood as an anti-American stronghold in the Caribbean region, and after the takeover of Maduro, U.S. interest has increased," Rybar wrote on its Telegram channel.

Rybar then laid out a scenario that, to us, suggests a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 in the making, in which it asked: "But what would the Cubans do in the event of a conflict? Let us hypothetically imagine that Havana decides to resist the Americans and chooses to fight. In that case, the already world-famous Geran strike drones could come to their aid."

To bring readers up to speed, Russian-made Geranium drones are a family of long-range loitering munitions, most commonly referring to the Geran-2, which is a version of Iran's Shahed-136. We have detailed how Russia has established domestic manufacturing plants to ramp up production, as well as the next iteration of these drones (read here).

The Geran-2 has a range of roughly 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers, carries a 30- to 50-kg high-explosive warhead, and is cheaper to produce than cruise missiles. One distinctive signature Ukrainians have learned to recognize is its sound: the drones are often described as lawn mowers in the sky.

Rybar noted the potential strike radius of the Geran-2 if such systems were positioned in Cuba, concluding that under this scenario that major oil and gas refineries, key military bases, data centers, and even Washington, DC would fall within the drone's strike envelope, representing a highly destabilizing escalation risk.

Rybar's Geran-2 threat map will likely cause major concern at State Department and DoW ...

We warned in recent days that trillions in dollars in CapEx will be spent on data centers worldwide, as per Morgan Stanley analyst Vishwanath Tirupattur's forecast, but Wall Street analysts largely end their analysis at the financing and construction of next-generation data centers, with limited discussion about modern security architecture required once these facilities are built and become instant high-value targets for non-state actors or foreign adversaries (read here). 

"Future wars will be wars of attrition, where autonomous systems fight one another, overwhelming technologically superior but low-inventory expensive systems. Protecting cities will require mass-produced, cost-comparable, networked solutions," Cameron Rowe of counter-UAS interceptor startup Sentradel told us.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 05:45

Governments Can Fix Money Fast. Here Is Why They Will Not Do It...

Zero Hedge -

Governments Can Fix Money Fast. Here Is Why They Will Not Do It...

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The markets have been rocked by news of a possible intervention to control the Japanese yen slump, after it reached a forty-year low relative to the US dollar. Fixing the yen and any other fiat currency is simple: Implement an Austrian approach; eliminate constant deficit spending and monetization of government outlays; and implement clear, sound money policies that support the purchasing power of the currency.

Letting rates float and having zero deficit would help.

However, no government seems to want to control spending and eliminate constant artificial currency creation, even knowing that, by doing so, they would limit the risk of financial crises, excessive risk-taking, and erosion of citizens’ wage purchasing power.

The best a citizen can expect today is a mild form of Keynesianism that aims for lower taxes, relatively lower spending, and a constant expansion of money supply as the driver of economic growth. Even this “lesser evil” approach ends with malinvestment, financial crises, and more politicians demanding “public investment” as the solution.

Governments avoid sound money and controlling spending because these choices can hurt them politically right away, while using inflation and interventionist methods allows them to take a lot of wealth from citizens and give it to themselves and their favored industries.

Governments refer to the constant issuance of new currency that exceeds private sector demand as the “social use of money.” Inflationism is a tool to create dependency and limit individuals’ financial freedom.

Inflation is not an accident; it is a policy. The erosion of the purchasing power of the currency makes governments more powerful; they present themselves as the solution to the problems their policies create, and citizens have fewer tools to gain financial independence.

Governments and their “experts” constantly try to blame inflation on anything except what really creates it: monetary excess preceded by fiscal irresponsibility and uncontrolled deficit spending. Politicians point to “greedy companies,” “supply shocks,” or “external factors,” even to wage growth, as causes of inflation to hide the simple fact that issuing more currency than the private sector demands inevitably destroys its purchasing power.

Inflation is a de facto slow default and signals a constant loss of fiscal credibility for governments. High taxes and inflation become two sides of the same policy: controlling citizens and making them servants to an ever-rising bureaucratic power that rewards a few private enablers in the process.

This erosion is not neutral. It is a permanent, silent tax on real wages and savings that benefits the state, the most indebted agent in the economy, which can spend more than it receives. When governments double down on spending and central banks accommodate with quantitative easing and artificially low rates, there is a simple calculated transfer of wealth from the middle class to the public sector.

Central banks have become tools to maintain the government debt bubble rather than defenders of price stability, especially when they view such stability in an annual inflation increase based on a carefully selected basket that masks the true extent of currency debasement. The Fed’s panic in 2020-2024 is a clear signal of a monetary authority subordinating its mandate to the needs of the Treasury.

The ECB has followed a similar path, maintaining its anti-fragmentation tools, rolling over massive holdings of sovereign bonds and giving permanent support for highly indebted states such as France and Spain. Central banks will not oppose the government; instead, they will transfer the burden to consumers.

Governments never end inflation because they benefit from it.

High nominal growth, fueled by money printing and deficit spending, inflates tax revenues and masks the deterioration of real wages, while the real value of outstanding public debt is gradually dissolved.

Sound money, balanced budgets, and structural reforms require the elimination of clientelist spending, politically protected programs, and subsidy‑dependent sectors.

Sound money benefits the private sector and citizens. Inflationism makes the state larger and more powerful at the expense of families and businesses. Politicians consistently pledge “free” benefits, which ultimately result in increased inflation, reduced growth, and diminished productivity.

This is why, even as headline inflation moderates, citizens feel poorer and angrier. Governments created the inflation shock with massive stimulus at the peak of the cycle, then forced central banks to tighten late and aggressively, placing the full burden of adjustment on families, small businesses, and productive investment while public sectors remained largely untouched. The result is stagnation with high taxation and persistent inflation expectations—a slow‑motion confiscation of the middle class.

Refusing to adopt sound money is not an intellectual mistake but a political choice. Governments and central banks have built a framework that systematically sacrifices citizens’ real wages, savings, and freedom to preserve an ever‑larger, ever‑more‑indebted state. You pay.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 05:00

Pages