Republicans Taking Note After Miami Mayor's Office Flips Blue For First Time In Decades

Republicans looking for hints on how midterms might go need look no further than Miami, Florida - where Democrat Eileen Higgins won the mayor's race, becoming the first woman to lead the city - and the first Democrat to take the helm in nearly 30 years. 

Miami mayor-elect Eileen Higgins celebrates at a watch party after winning the Miami mayoral runoff election, Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025, in Miami. | Lynne Sladky/AP

The 61-year-old campaigned on opposition to the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration, saying many in Miami have voiced concerns over family members being detained. 

Higgins beat Trump-backed former city manager Emilio Gonzales by roughly 19%. That said, there are a few caveats:

- The race was supposed to be nonpartisan, meaning voters didn't see party labels when they cast their ballot.

- It's an off-year election, and the first Miami mayoral runoff since 2001.

- It's the first time the mayor's race has ever been decided in December, while people are preparing for the holidays. 

Yet, since Republicans have held the seat for so long, and because Higgins won by nearly 20 points, Democrats get to add Miami to their list of wins in 2025. 

"We are facing rhetoric from elected officials that is so dehumanizing and cruel, especially against immigrant populations," Higgins told AP following her victory speech. "The residents of Miami were ready to be done with that."

RESULT: D+19 pic.twitter.com/etROjOCyqZ

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 10, 2025

While the Miami race might be an outlier when it comes to predicting midterms, the victory gives Democrats some momentum heading into midterm elections, where the GOP is looking to keep Florida red - including a Hispanic-majority district in Miami-Dade county that has been shifting increasingly conservative in recent years. 

"Tonight's result is yet another warning sign to Republicans that voters are fed up with their out-of-touch agenda that is raising costs," said DNC chair Ken Martin following Higgins' win. 

Conservative activist Scott Pressler sounded the alarm, writing on X: "Republicans are completely squandering all of the work we did to win the 2024 elections."

Yep. Leave it to the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

— Tomi Lahren (@TomiLahren) December 10, 2025

As Politico notes, Higgins' campaign is likely to be carefully studied by other Democratic hopefuls in Florida - after she ran "not on social justice or culture war issues, but on improving affordability and making government work better. She agreed with Republicans that the city’s finances needed a careful look." 

Republicans will certainly face questions after Tuesday's result - including whether they're losing ground with Latinos, and whether it will continue to be effective to call Democrats "socialists" at every turn given that it didn't work whatsoever with Higgins. 

"Donald Trump got involved in this election. Ron DeSantis got involved in this election. Every statewide elected Republican got involved in this election," said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. "They knew this was an important race, and them blowing it off today is why we’re going to be able to win some really big races next year — because they think they just have Florida in the bag."

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 20:15

The Hyperventilating Over The DOE Restructuring Is Ongoing

Authored by Larry Sand via American Greatness,

In the latest wave of fearmongering surrounding President Trump’s efforts to overhaul the U.S. Department of Education, a coalition of states that sued to stop mass layoffs at the department in March is now challenging recent decisions to transfer many of the DOE’s core functions to the U.S. Department of Labor and other federal agencies.

The attorneys general from 20 blue states and the District of Columbia, along with several teachers’ unions, argue in an amended complaint filed on Nov. 25 that federal laws require the U.S. Department of Education to implement its own programs. The lawsuits focus on the fact that the department signed seven agreements with four other federal agencies, allowing those agencies to handle the day-to-day management of key grant programs. Under these arrangements, the Labor Department now heads up most K-12 grant programs, distributing over $20 billion annually to schools.

The National Education Association issued a ridiculous statement alleging that the moves are “illegal, cruel, and shameful.” NEA president Becky Pringle bizarrely declared, “Not only do they want to starve and steal from our students—they want to rob them of their futures. Nothing is more important than the success of our students, and America’s educators and parents will not be silent as Trump and Linda McMahon turn their backs on our students, families, and communities to pay for billionaire tax cuts.”

American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten also claims that the move is not legal. “There are lots of things about the Department of Education that are in statute,” she declares, referring to funds that the department distributes to low-income families, students with disabilities, English as a Second Language learners, and work-study programs.

Let’s take a deep breath, step back, and look at the facts.

While the federal government has spent money on education and developed education policies since the 19th century, the DOE didn’t become a standalone agency until 1980, when it split off from the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Its creation came about when, as a sop to the National Education Association, Jimmy Carter established it while running for reelection. Clearly, it was politically motivated, and in response, the NEA subsequently issued its first-ever endorsement in a presidential contest.

As Jay Greene, a senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, points out, most of the programs that the DOE now administers were created before the department was established. He writes that it is “just a bureaucratic restructuring. It doesn’t get rid of programs; it doesn’t cut funding; it doesn’t close any schools. It’s just a change in the administration, not a change in the programs and services and funding delivered to America’s schools.”

Neal McCluskey, director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Educational Freedom, further explains that under the restructuring, states may get money back, but with strings attached.

Additionally, President Trump says his goal is to transfer the department’s primary responsibilities—such as Pell Grants, Title I funding, and resources for students with disabilities—to other parts of the federal government.

There is little reason to believe that moving various programs to different agencies will have any impact on schools whatsoever. Running the same programs under a different department is unlikely to affect students.

“If that’s all they’re doing, they’re not going to save any money, they’re not going to change any policy,” says Shep Melnick, a political scientist at Boston College.

Melnick is correct. Essentially, what the feds are trying to do at this time is tantamount to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

What the left and the teachers’ unions truly fear is that the restructuring will eventually result in the federal government completely withdrawing all educational control.

The reasons for shutting it down are numerous.

First, spending is more efficient when it is closer to the source. Jim Blew, assistant secretary of education during the first Trump administration and co-founder of the Defense of Freedom Institute for Policy Studies, correctly notes, “This ‘local control’ message is often met by naysayers with the concern that some local districts may do worse without federal ‘guardrails’—as if every school and district needs the same guardrails or that maintaining them comes with no cost. Perhaps some local districts will use their freedom to create worse outcomes (although that would be hard to do when roughly a third of our nation’s 4th and 8th graders already cannot demonstrate even basic, grade-level reading or math skills), but I find it more likely that we will see committed, innovative educators improve student outcomes when freed to use federal funding as they think best.”

Perhaps no one fully comprehends the DOE’s uselessness and waste more than former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos. She contends that it shuffles money around, imposes unnecessary requirements and political agendas through its grants, and then shirks responsibility for evaluating whether any of what it does actually adds value. “Here’s how it works: Congress appropriates funding for education; last year, it totaled nearly $80 billion. The department’s bureaucrats take in those billions, add strings and red tape, peel off a percentage to pay for themselves, and then send it down to state education agencies.”

In summary, the DOE is ineffective, incompetent, unnecessary, and costly, and does nothing to support education. Its creation was a mistake, and it should be abolished. There is no strong policy reason or constitutional basis for the federal government to be involved in K-12 education. Ultimately, America’s schools would be better off without it.

But big-government leftists and teachers’ unions rely on centralized authority. It’s easier for them to influence a single federal agency where they already hold sway than to compete for control across 50 states and thousands of local districts.  And, sadly, they will get their way, as 60 U.S. Senators would have to authorize the abolition of the DOE, which will not happen.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 19:50

Watch: Third Russian Oil Tanker Hit By Sea Drone In Black Sea

Ukraine has carried out another drone attack on a Russia-linked so-called 'shadow fleet' tanker in the Black Sea on Wednesday, which marks a third such attack in less than two weeks, and which seeks to disrupt Moscow's maritime oil trade.

Local reports have identified the Comoros Islands-flagged Dashan as being struck while sailing en route to the Russian port terminal of Novorossiysk. The Ukrainians were quick to release drone-perspective video confirming the attack, and the vessel appeared to be unladen at the time.

The some $30 million tanker "sustained critical damage and was completely put out of action - powerful explosions can be clearly seen in video footage shown by the sources," according to Ukrainian media.

Ukraine's SBU security service says its Sea Baby naval drones today struck another Russian “shadow fleet” tanker in the Black Sea.

Video from an SBU source purports to show the oil tanker "Dashan" being hit by the attack drone and explosions in the stern area. "The vessel,… pic.twitter.com/mtfBqYe1gQ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 10, 2025

The Dashan was under US-led sanctions, as well as sanctions by the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Switzerland.

When the tanker Kairo was hit late last month it was towed to Bulgaria, but it was also deemed a complete loss.

Reuters has recently noted that "War insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea have spiked again, with insurers reviewing policies daily as the conflict in Ukraine spills into sea lanes, five shipping and insurance sources said on Thursday."

Moscow is outraged at recent attacks on tankers transporting Russian oil. Also on Wednesday, a cargo vessel carrying grain from Crimea was detained by Ukrainian authorities at Odessa port:

Ukrainian security officials have detained a cargo vessel in the port of Odesa that authorities say is part of Russia’s so-called "shadow fleet," the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Wednesday.

The ship, whose name was not disclosed, arrived under the flag of an African country to load a shipment of steel pipes. The captain and 16 crew members holding passports from unspecified Middle Eastern countries were on board at the time of the seizure.

According to the SBU, the vessel illegally transported nearly 7,000 tons of Russian grain from annexed Crimea to North Africa in January 2021.

The SBU claims it found evidence of "illegal operations in ports on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory" after a search of the ship.

Apparently Ukrainian authorities intend to seize the ship's cargo altogether, and transfer them Ukraine’s Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA), a government entity which deals with property linked to corruption or other crimes. So naturally, Moscow is not going to look kindly on fresh offers to mutually stop attacks on energy infrastructure.

President Putin has warned he's ready to step up military attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in retaliation for these brazen attack on Black Sea shipping.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 19:25

Mistakes That Can Wreck Your Estate Plan

Authored by Javier Simon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

So you have an estate plan. You’ve taken a major step in making sure you leave behind a legacy and that your assets are passed down as you see fit. But that, however, is not enough. There are plenty of potential mistakes that can torpedo your estate plan. That’s why you need to mobilize now to make sure your estate plan is bullet proof.

Inside Creative House/Shutterstock

So let’s take a look at some of the mistakes to look out for and how to fix them.

Forgetting to Update Your Estate Plan

Your estate plan is a living mechanism. And things change in life. Divorces happen. Falling outs happen. Loved ones pass away. New kids are born, and so on. These major life events could affect the sturdiness of your estate plan. So you need to go back in there and make the necessary changes to make sure the estate plan still adheres to your wishes.

Forgetting to Manage Beneficiaries

Designated beneficiaries overpower what’s in a will or trust. So you need to make sure you still have the right beneficiaries listed on accounts like retirement plans.

You may have listed your spouse as the designated beneficiary to your individual retirement account (IRA), and recently went through a divorce. In this case, you may want to update the beneficiary designation.

Or, perhaps, a designated beneficiary has passed away. With that said, many experts recommend you name more than one beneficiary.

And to keep everything in line, here’s a list of common accounts that take beneficiary listings:

• insurance policies
• 401(k)
• Roth 401(k)
• IRA
• Roth IRA
• brokerage accounts
• savings accounts

In addition, it’s always important to pay close attention to how the beneficiary themselves could affect your estate plan.

Designating a Minor as a Beneficiary

You want your children to be financially taken care of after you pass away. So naming them as beneficiaries to something like your retirement savings can seem like a no brainer.

But that can open you up to some pitfalls. Minors can’t manage large amounts of assets. In most cases, a court will have to appoint a conservator to manage the assets. And this individual may not be the person you would want to have managed your child’s inheritance. In addition, the minor would take full control of the assets once they reach the age of majority (18 or 21, depending on the state). At this point, your child may or may not be capable of handling the money responsibly.

You could bypass these issues by creating a trust and naming your child as the beneficiary. A trustee of your choice would manage the assets. And you can choose when the funds may be distributed. This could hinge on specific circumstances like once your child graduates college or holds a steady job.

Improperly Funding a Trust

A trust is an essential part of any estate plan. Not only does it allow your assets to bypass probate but it also ensures assets are properly distributed as you wish. It’s a legal entity that holds and manages these assets.

But unless it’s properly funded, it’s nothing more than an empty vessel. To avoid this, you need to start by drafting your legal trust document. And you need to list all your assets by type and value. For example, you can have real estate, vehicles, bank accounts, and brokerage accounts. You also need to gather all the paperwork that proves your ownership to these assets such as financial documents, deeds, and titles. Next, open an official trust account through a financial institution. You then fund your trust by making title changes and naming the trust as the beneficiary on applicable accounts.

Forgetting About Your Digital Assets

With so much time we spend online, we may forget we are creating virtual assets. You create an identity and share pictures of precious memories on social media. You may have a substantial amount of money in cryptocurrency. You may run a business entirely online.

So your estate plan needs to take into account what happens to these assets after you die. So creating a digital estate plan is key.

Start by taking inventory of your digital assets like social media profiles, emails, intellectual property, important computer files, digital media, and more. And as you would choose an executor for your estate plan, you should choose one for your digital estate plan as well. It can be the same person.

Moreover, you may want to provide access to these digital assets by using a reliable password manager and giving your trustee access. Plus, make sure you have a detailed digital estate plan document outlining exactly how you want your digital assets managed.

Failing to Prepare for Incapacitation

Nobody wants to think about it—but anything can happen in life. And you could become incapacitated and unable to make important decisions regarding your assets and health.

You can avoid this by setting up a financial and health care power of attorney. These are people you trust who can step in to make important financial and health-related decisions in the unfortunate event that you become incapacitated.

Forgetting About Taxes

The federal estate tax can take a bite out of your estate before it’s distributed to your heirs. Luckily, this tax would only impact significantly large estates.

For 2025, the estate tax is only levied on transferable assets valued at more than $13.99 million or $27.98 million for married couples. That is the current federal estate and gift tax exemption. For 2026, the federal estate and gift tax exemption rises to $15 million per person or $30 million per married couple.

Forgetting About Final Arrangements

How would you like to spend your last days? In hospice? Assisted living? And when the time comes, how would you want to be remembered? Do you want to be buried or cremated? Do you want a memorial?

All these are difficult questions. But you can save your loved ones some headaches by answering them now. You can clearly outline this in your estate plan so everything goes as you would like it to.

The Bottom Line

Drafting an estate plan is not enough. You need to continually update it. You may want to make beneficiary changes, for example. And you may have overlooked other factors, too. For example, you may want to make sure you have a digital estate plan in place. And you also want to make sure your trust is properly funded. And, importantly, you need to take a look at any tax implications. In any case, it’s a good idea to review your estate plan with a trusted estate planning attorney.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 19:00

Crockett's Senate Run Was Engineered By Republicans

Rep. Jasmine Crockett. (D-Texas) officially launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate on Monday, and Republicans appear to have played a major role in that happening. 

According to a report from NOTUS, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) was “actively worked behind the scenes to encourage Rep. Jasmine Crockett to jump into the Senate Democratic primary in Texas, believing she will be the easiest opponent to beat.”

With Sen. John Cornyn facing a tough three-way primary and Democrats fielding two strong candidates, Republican strategists reportedly were concerned the race would be tougher than expected. They feared a draining fight could leave the nominee wounded before the real battle against the Democrats even began.

Back in July, the NRSC commissioned a private poll that “by design” included Crockett’s name among the Democratic contenders. Her numbers surprised everyone: she topped the field. Instead of treating it as an internal curiosity, GOP operatives moved fast. 

“When we saw the results, we were like, ‘OK, we got to disseminate this far and wide,’” a source told NOTUS.

In June news broke that Texas Democrats Colin Allred, James Talarico, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro met to discuss the 2026 election.

Operatives at the NRSC realized that Crockett — whose political stock had been rising — wasn’t included in that meeting and also hadn’t been included in any credible poll. So they decided to change that.

Following the NRSC’s polls, other surveys began to include Crockett and showed similar results: She was surging in the primary.

The NRSC then worked to amplify those polls and is taking credit for helping “orchestrate the pile on of these polling numbers to really drive that news cycle and that narrative that Jasmine Crockett was surging in Texas,” the source said.

And Crockett took the bait.

“The more I saw the poll results, I couldn’t ignore the trends that were clear,” she said later, tying her Senate bid directly to the polling wave Republicans had manufactured for her. It was the political equivalent of bait left in plain sight. And she took it.

Behind the curtain, the NRSC operatives had built an entire ecosystem to sustain their creation. The source called it an “AstroTurf recruitment process,” as the NRSC had allies who were “seeding these new polls pretty aggressively into progressive digital spaces.”

They even coordinated text messages and phone calls to Democratic activists, urging them to call Crockett’s office and push her to run. Each round of organized “encouragement” added to the illusion of an organic movement. A small feedback loop spun into a statewide phenomenon.

Meanwhile, internal GOP numbers showed Cornyn trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton badly in a three-way primary that also included Wesley Hunt. Paxton polled as a general-election liability; Hunt wasn’t ready for a statewide fight. The GOP couldn’t afford to risk a damaged nominee in a cycle where Democrats had real contenders in Allred and Talarico. So national Republicans recalibrated. If their incumbent had vulnerabilities, they could balance the math by softening up the other side.

That meant turning Jasmine Crockett—a loud, anti-Trump social-media darling with a taste for cable brawls—into the presumptive Democratic frontrunner. She was tailor-made for the part Republicans wanted cast: a polarizing progressive who would turn off swing voters in a Texas general election.

Then the miracle happened. Allred, once the strongest Democrat in the field, suddenly exited the Senate race to run for the House, effectively ceding the primary to Crockett. Crockett announced her campaign the same day, citing the same polling trends the NRSC had seeded months earlier. 

Crockett’s campaign has admittedly gotten off to a rocky start. Her campaign launch video became an unintentional punchline, and despite her high profile and large campaign war chest, Senate Democrats aren’t lining up to endorse her.

But Republicans aren’t done shoring her up.

They are actively exploring ways to sustain her momentum long enough to secure the Democratic nomination. That means quiet talks with outside conservative-aligned groups about launching “independent expenditure” efforts that appear progressive on paper, with the sole purpose of propping up her campaign.

Crockett frames her Senate run as destiny, powered by the people.

The irony is, those “people” were Republican operatives running call lists from D.C., testing whether they could turn raw data into a political force that worked in their favor. They could. And they did.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 18:35

Letitia James Moves To Silence Debate Over Transgender Policies

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There was an interesting complaint filed in New York yesterday in which a group of parents and educators sued New York Attorney General Letitia James over a letter viewed as threatening those who are raising transgender policies in public meetings.

While the legal basis for the complaint is likely to be challenged as premature by the state, the lawsuit exposes an effort that seems clearly designed to chill such public discussions of transgender issues. The “guidance letter” warns school boards that discussing student trans issues at public meetings could violate the right to privacy for affected students and, if board members engage in such public discussions, “they may be removed” by state education officials.

The letter seems designed not only to threaten those who want to raise these policies, but also to offer cover for boards to cut off public debate. Few boards want to discuss the issue and we have seen heavy-handed tactics to cut off those who raise the policies.

The Southeastern Legal Foundation filed the lawsuit and faces considerable challenges in using a guidance letter as the basis for a lawsuit. James will argue that such letters are common and merely express how her office will interpret the law in these areas in light of questions from various boards.

It states:

“Board members may be removed by the commissioner of education if they, (1) violate the education law or another law ‘pertaining to [public] schools,’ including the state Human Rights Law; (2) willfully neglect their duties as public officers; or (3) willfully disobey a ‘decision, order, rule or regulation’ of the Regents or the commissioner of education.”

The question is whether a court will find the letter itself insufficient to trigger a lawsuit, rather than waiting to see how that legal guidance is applied in any given case.

Putting aside the merits of the legal cause of action, the letter should raise free speech concerns. It seems designed to intimidate some who want to raise these policies while giving others support for shutting down debates. Polls show that the public is generally opposed to transgender policies on pronouns, sports, and bathroom access.

The letter emphasizes that free speech can be limited at these meetings:

“[u]nder the First Amendment, school board meetings are considered limited public fora. This means that school boards that allow public comment ‘may make reasonable, view-neutral rules governing the content of speech allowed,’ including prohibiting all comments on a particular topic that would have discriminatory, harassing, or bullying effects.”

James leaves the scope of what would be considered “discriminatory, harassing, or bullying effects” lingering without any clear definition. It is the same vagueness in standards that we have seen used in higher education where administrators have succeeded in getting students to self-censor to avoid the unknown lines of speech regulation.

In other words, the letter is giving these boards guidance on how to stop public debate in their meetings on issues that are currently unpopular and leading to rising opposition among parents and students.

The timing of the letter before the midterm elections only magnifies suspicions that James is nudging boards to prohibit all comments on these divisive issues.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 18:10

US To Ask Visitors For 5 Years Of Social Media History Under New Plan

The United States is planning to require visitors from dozens of countries on the visa waiver program to provide up to five years of their social media history, according to a proposal from the US Customs and Border Protection posted to the Federal Register on Wednesday. 

Countries on the list include much of Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Qatar, Israel, Chile and Brunei. Citizens or nationals of these countries have been allowed to freely travel to the United States for tourism or business for stays of 90 days or less without obtaining a visa. If the proposal is adopted, they'll have to share their online footprint - something that immigrant and nonimmigrant visa applicants from different categories have been required to provide since 2019. 

According to the proposal, adding social media would be a "mandatory data element" for an Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) application, WaPo reports, adding that applicants would also be required to provide additional information "when feasible." 

The list also includes; 

• Telephone numbers used in the last five years
• Email addresses used in the last 10 years
• IP addresses and metadata from electronically submitted photos
• Biometrics - including facial, fingerprint, DNA and Iris data
• Information about one's family - including  names, telephone numbers, dates of birth, places of birth and residences.

The CBP proposal is open for a 60-day public comment period. 

ESTA - an automated system, costs $40 and is generally valid for two years. An ESTA holder can enter multiple times during that period.

Farshad Owji, past president of the American Immigration Lawyers Association and partner at law firm WR Immigration, told the Post that it appears the Trump administration wants to evaluate social media histories to "understand the person’s view of general politics around the world."

The proposal would also require applicants to apply for ESTA via a mobile app, and would remove the option from the government's website. According to CBP, over 14 million people will use the mobile app annually after the changes come into effect. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 17:45

Could A Debasement Trade Drown Those Without Gold?

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Anyone who has spent decades within a specific craft or industry (be it carpentry, medicine, academia, masonry, or markets) slowly acquires not only skills but pattern recognition. The years, as I like to say, gradually teach things the days don’t notice.

Such context cannot be downloaded, transferred or absorbed through an AI tool, which, by its very title, can never be a genuine substitute for earned (and therefore, actual) intelligence.

Gaining Perspective

Having traversed years of complex market forces, themes and instruments (from derivative timebombs and COMEX tricks to banking risks and bond market signals), I, like many others, have acquired certain, well, Jaded perspectives.

This, of course, also includes biases, of which I am no less guilty.

Experience nevertheless allows for recognizing occasional lighthouses amidst the otherwise intentional fog of data overload, obfuscation, and noise. In short, and without crystal balls or a genius IQ, we can endeavor to derive the simple from the complex, and then act upon that simplicity with a modest degree of understanding.

Patterns Repeating Themselves

As we approach the end of 2025, we are seeing, yet again, certain familiar and simple patterns which can serve as potential lighthouses for those endeavoring to navigate so much admitted fog. 

We all recognize, for example, debt levels screaming well beyond the Rubicon of the sustainable, resulting in further and familiar currency debasement, ripping (and predictable) gold prices, metals exchanges running out of metals, escalating geopolitical tensions and risk assets defying the gravity of fair valuation by literally every metric, from the Buffet and Shiller indicators to the NVDA market cap.

And for years, we’ve tracked these and countless other themes, both complex and simple, exciting and less exciting, together—yet always free to make our own conclusions from the patterns, facts, numbers and themes presented.

Below, I address two themes from 2025 which tell us much as we head toward a future riddled with increasing landmines as well as opportunities.

Specifically, I am referring to: (1) insider stock selling and (2) a potential revaluation plan hiding beneath the Strategic BTC Reserve Order.

Insider Selling: The Rats Leaving a Sinking Ship

Although an ardent capitalist, I have, over the years, been critical of the neo-feudalism which has replaced free-market capitalism in what I have critiqued as an unhealthy and rigged-to-fail game of insider lords and Main Street serfs.

The lords of finance and politics have long ago accepted that it was better to “be inside” than to do the “right thing” when it came to monopoly powers, fractional reserve banking, asset-bubble creation, the repeal of Glass Steagall, the deregulation of derivatives, stock buy-backs or appalling management/employee salary ratios, all of which objectively defy greed and creep toward pathology. 

Such laws of markets and human nature will likely never change, but that doesn’t mean we can’t prepare ourselves for the consequences of this gamed system.

What many have not noticed from 2024 to now, however, is the astronomical level of insider selling of publicly traded stocks. 

Massive Selling

Beginning in 2024, for example, Jeffrey Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison, Jamie Dimon, and the Walton family, along with numerous other C-suite denizens, have individually and collectively been selling billions worth of their own shares at the top of a market they knew was grotesquely over-valued and heading straight for a recession. 

In fact, the $464B of insider selling in 2024, which continued well into 2025, was the highest level of insider dumping ever seen, save for the $650B of similar dumping in 2007, a year before the Great Financial Crisis sent the global financial system to its knees in 2008.

This (and not “estate planning,” “philanthropy” or “diversification”) was why a banking CEO like Jamie Dimon, otherwise a vocal proponent of long-term holdings yet intimately aware of defaulting loan and consumer credit signals, was selling $150M worth of his own Morgan Chase stock for the first time in 18 years. 

And Bezos dumping $13B worth of his Amazon shares or Ellison taking $3B off his Oracle account while Zuckerberg cashed in a 2024 personal Meta stake of $50B came from the same motives and knowledge of the NVDA insiders who were simultaneously dumping their shares at record levels and all-time-high valuations. 

This was not diversification or coincidental profit taking; it was shared recognition that their valuations, priced to perfection, were heading toward a crisis. 

History Rhyming

This, of course, is a familiar playbook. From Countrywide Mortgage to Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, we saw similar insider dumping in 2007—and it always came before rather than after they tanked.

The sell-offs quietly marking 2024 and continuing into 2025 are, at least to me, a signal that the rats are jumping ship months before the market bow dips beneath the equity waterline.

What’s even more telling is that the sell-to-buy ratios behind these insider sales had skyrocketed to ratios of 9:1 and even 12:1 in 2024, the highest in history, against an average healthy rate of 3:1.

Do you see a sell signal?

The Emergency Plan Hiding in Plain Sight?

2025 was also year of headline-making executive orders promoted to make America great again.

Regardless of one’s politics, however, we can all agree that when the interest expense on America’s public debt exceeds $1.2T (well above its annual military budget), there’s a giant and economy-crushing elephant in the room.

As I’ve warned from the writings of 18th-century mathematicians to 21st-century Debt/GDP ratios, there’s no longer an easy solution to such historically unprecedented debt and hence currency traps. 

Instead, we’ve reached the desperation stage.

As a result, the evidence of a world steadily turning away from the USD and toward physical gold as a superior strategic reserve asset is not a theory but a fact, one confirmed from the COMEX and BRICS to the BIS.

In this backdrop of such largely ignored yet empirically mathematical realism, came a flurry of executive orders to keep the headlines positive while the experts scurried for alleged solutions. But was there a deeper “plan” behind all this?

Is Something Hiding Within the Strategic Reserve BTC Order?

One so-called solution, of course, was the March 2025 Strategic BTC Reserve Order, intended to be codified by a subsequent Act of Congress. Like all desperate legislation in the face of an objective debt crisis, this gold play, carefully hiding under a BTC mask, showed its sunny side and “digital future” to the media while hiding a darker side (of centralized control) in carefully worded sabotage.

Tucked, for example, within the language of this and other so-called odes to a “decentralized future of digital efficiency” and “digital gold” was a provision which hid the hints of a planned and centralized currency debasement. This hidden skunk in the woodpile is now waiting for an inevitable “uh-oh” moment to trigger it. 

Specifically, the crypto language of 2025 contains a lot of talk regarding “strategic reserve assets,” which, of course, referred to BTC, but which some feel was just a cover story. But if you dig deeper into this definition within the Federal Reserve Register, “strategic reserve assets” do not explicitly include “monetary metals” – i.e., gold and silver. 

In fact, under US law and Fed regulations, there is no statutory or regulatory definition of “strategic reserve assets” that covers metals, BTC or any other assets in a general sense. 

The Fed, does, however, publish policy guidance on the composition of FX reserves and the gold holdings within the Treasury’s “Exchange Stabilization Fund” – a veritable “slush fund” created by the profits FDR made from his $2.8B gold confiscation of citizen metals/wealth in 1933…

This is no coincidence.

Unbeknownst to most, the powers floating around all this crypto legislation allows the Treasury Department to acquire, manage and value these reserve assets for “national security.” This is clever legalese for: The government, subsequent to altering official statements, can, at its discretion, later devalue, re-value and/or acquire these assets whenever the $#!7 hits the next fan…

We’ve Seen This Movie Before

In case you think such a tin-foil-hatted suggestion smacks in the face of American freedoms, please know that such a playbook for emergency gold re-valuation and dollar-debasement is nothing new at all.

In 1933, when FDR faced a debt crisis of “national security” (due, of course, to the banking and leverage practices of the roaring 20’s), he was able by executive order (6102) to not only confiscate citizen gold at the $20.00 market price, but 9 months later, having taken his citizens’ gold, to then reset the price higher at $35.00/ounce. He then placed the billions he “acquired” into the same ESF “slush fund” still at play today.

Overnight, your government thus devalued the dollar by 69%, which made it easier to pay down Uncle Sam’s debt after robbing the gold and debasing the dollar by which its citizens measured their wealth. 

Concerns…

Such clever yet complex legislative theft, of course, was no shocker. All debtors, including Uncle Sam, prefer a debased currency to pay down fixed debt. 

I have some concerns that the same playbook of 1933 is now quietly in motion today, only the debt levels are much higher and the potential debasement to come would be much harsher for Joe Six-Pack.

Why the concern? Because desperate governments have shown their true faces before, and they are more desperate today than ever before.

Uncle Sam, for example, knows that he is approaching $40T of public debt, which no one in the world, including the White House, believes can ever be repaid—at least not unless he finds some equity real fast. This is because more Fed money printing is becoming politically embarrassing and globally distrusted, as gold is now held by more central banks than USTs.

The Hidden Piggy Bank

Currently, and conveniently, the US sits on over 260 million ounces of gold reserves whose certificates have been priced at $42.22/oz since 1973, creating a current value of $11B, which we all know is peanuts when measured against trillion-dollar debt levels.

In my opinion, we should at least be concerned of a move to one day re-value those certificates higher, much higher, to give Uncle Sam some needed cash. 

But rather than just reprice those certificates to the market price for a trillion or so of fast cash (also peanuts), it’s possible that the Fed, in conjunction with the US Treasury, would reprice those certificates much higher, as they did in 1933.

Specifically, and thanks to the hidden language above, they could legally reprice gold at $20,000, a deliberate number which would revalue those gold certificates from $11B to $5.2T, which is closer to the valuation needed to stabilize (i.e. match the assets and liabilities) of the USA’s most liquid M0 monetary base (cash + bank reserves at the Fed) of $6.7T.

What’s Good for Government is Bad for the Governed 

In other words, and by one emergency action taken in a moment of “national security” (i.e., an act of war, rate spikes or market implosion), the US could unilaterally re-establish a shadow “gold standard light” on its M0 monetary base. 

Such an “emergency measure” would restore faith in Uncle Sam’s otherwise unloved Treasury bonds without having to “print” a single dollar at the Fed nor issue a single IOU from the Treasury. It’s basically “golden QE.”

But as in 1933, that same emergency measure would mean an absolutely disastrous devaluation of the USD by 80%. Such debasement would hit the man (and savers) on the street square in the gut, while rescuing the government at their expense. 

Shocking? Unthinkable? Koo-Koo? Well, we’ve seen this movie and playbook before, less than a century ago—it’s just that so few read history…

Insiders Building Their Arcs Before the Rain

As in 1933, the current government and the commercial banks aligned with it would need to hold this physical gold before it was repriced. In my admittedly jaded mind, hints of this were signaled (and prepared) three years ago when the Basel III rules conveniently classified allocated, physical gold with Tier-1 asset status. 

This made gold equal to risk-free money prior to the uh-oh moment (of “national security”) they know is coming. The BIS was effectively helping itself and the banking system build their Arc of PHYSICAL GOLD before the flood of deliberate dollar debasement under a gold revaluation plan. 

Real Gold Matters More than Ever

If this “conspiracy theory” is true or at least plausible, it serves as yet another obvious reason to never “own” gold in an ETF or futures contract. As we have warned for years, such holdings are not gold ownership but a mere claim on gold.

And as for future contracts and other levered instruments of legalized price fixing on the openly wounded COMEX, we already know that the leverage on those permanent gold and silver shorts is multiples beyond the metals actually available. 

The gold (and silver) just ain’t there…

Banking Tricks vs. Tricked Gold

If gold were suddenly re-priced well beyond the market price, the short-squeeze to follow would be fatal to such discredited exchanges. In such an event, the market would immediately go “no offer,” which means the exchanges, ETFs, and even commercial banks holding client gold would exercise their force majeure clauses, also hiding in plain sight. 

This means they could settle your gold “claims” and contracts at the last official settlement price, depriving you of any upside in such an emergency repricing of gold. Those holding their gold at banks could thus wake up to realize that they’ve been paying storage fees for an asset whose sudden price appreciation would be denied them.

Gold held in so-called “safe deposit boxes” would be equally at risk.  As we also learned from the 90-year playbook of the last great taking/moment of “national security,” anyone seeking access to their safe deposit boxes required the presence of a federal agent to legally “acquire” their gold as a matter of sovereign necessity.

Jurisdiction Matters

Given the above reasons and risks, we have consistently recommended that US investors create a legal firewall between their precious metals and sovereign governments. This is not because we KNOW a great taking WILL happen, but because we know it CAN happen. 

“Gold hub” jurisdictions like Switzerland and Singapore, wherein gold is a uniquely protected asset, have therefore been an equal, essential and deliberate part of this preparation and conviction.

Again, I cannot say the above revaluation will happen, only that it could happen. As such, it is better to be prepared and informed than re-valued, robbed or surprised. Either way, physical gold, properly owned and protected, prevails over melting currencies and desperate/broke sovereigns.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 17:20

Japan, South Korea Scramble Jets After Russian-Chinese Bomber Flight: 'Acts Of Intimidation'

Airspace over Western Pacific waters near Japan continues to heat up at a moment of the highest tensions in decades between Beijing and Tokyo.

Tuesday saw Japan and South Korea dispatch fighter jets in response to a joint patrol by Russian and Chinese bombers over the Asia-Pacific region, the countries' militaries confirmed.

Russian military file image.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul described that seven Russian and two Chinese aircraft entered South Korea's Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) at approximately 10am local time (01:00 GMT) on Tuesday.

While the zone is not strictly speaking sovereign airspace, aircraft are expected to identify themselves to South Korean authorities. South Korea in response deployed "fighter jets to take tactical measures in preparation for any contingencies."

Russia's Defense Ministry (MoD) had confirmed its Tu-95MS strategic bombers and China’s H-9 strategic bombers conducted the eight hour flight over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the Western Pacific - but that at no time was any country's airspace violated, and that it was done according to international law.

 "At certain stages of the route, the strategic missile carriers were accompanied by fighters from foreign countries, the MoD acknowledged.

Chinese J-16 fighter jets, two Russian Su-30 fighters and an A-50 early-warning aircraft provided cover for the bombers at various parts of the patrol, it was also disclosed.

But South Korea has still lodged a formal diplomatic protest, which one Seoul official saying, "Our military will continue to respond actively to the activities of neighboring countries’ aircraft within the KADIZ in compliance with international law."

Perhaps the firmest and most provocative statement came from Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last month made statements saying Tokyo has the right to defend Taiwan if the self-ruled island is invaded by China. This sparked outrage in Beijing, which has been flexing its economic and military might, in a series of punitive measures.

Watch: Russian and Chinese bombers over the Western Pacific:

Watch Russian and Chinese Bombers THUNDER over the western Pacific

Russia’s Tu-95ms and China’s Xi’an H-6 flew an 8-hour patrol over the Sea of Japan and East China Sea

From inside the cockpit, the turboprop roar of the Tu-95 almost sounds relaxing pic.twitter.com/rhva8fbAQI

— RT (@RT_com) December 9, 2025

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi wrote on X on Wednesday of the joint Russia-China bomber patrol, "These repeated joint bomber flights by Russia and China represent an expansion and intensification of their military activities around Japan."

"They clearly indicate deliberate acts of intimidation directed toward our country and constitute a serious concern from the standpoint of Japan’s national security," he added.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 16:55

Oracle Tumbles On Disappointing Cloud Revenue; CapEx Soars: Funding Questions Remain

While the Fed's "not so hawkish" cut was certainly better than what the market expected, largely thanks to the very dovish addition of $40BN in not QE monthly Reserve Management Purchases of T-Bills, there was another key event today and, as we previewed earlier, that was Oracle's second quarter results. And unlike the Fed, this one was not nearly as good for risk assets: the company reported earnings which beat estimates, but the top line was a mess, with cloud growth missing across the board, and margins also disappointing, sending the stock lower after hours. 

Here is what Oracle just reported for Q2:

• Adjusted EPS $2.26 vs. $1.47 y/y, beating estimates of $1.64
  • The company clarified that GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share "were both positively impacted by a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain in the sale of Oracle's interest in our Ampere chip company."
• Adjusted revenue $16.06 billion, +14% y/y, missing estimates of $16.21 billion
  • Cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $8.0 billion, +36% y/y, missing estimate $8.04 billion
  • Cloud Infrastructure revenue (IaaS) $4.1 billion, +71% y/y, beating estimates of $4.09 billion
  • Cloud Application revenue (SaaS) $3.9 billion, +11% y/y, matching estimates of $3.9 billion
  • Software revenue $5.88 billion, -3.1% y/y, missing estimates of $6.03 billion
  • Hardware revenue $776 million, +6.6% y/y, beating estimates of $716.7 million
  • Service revenue $1.43 billion, +7.4% y/y, beating estimates of $1.36 billion
     
• Revenue in constant currency +13%, missing estimates of +14.6%
  • Cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) in constant currency +33%, missing estimate +35.1%
  • Cloud Infrastructure revenue (IaaS) in constant currency +66%, missing estimate +69.1%
  • Cloud Application revenue (SaaS) in constant currency +11%, missing estimate +12.4%
     
• Adjusted operating income $6.72 billion, +10% y/y, beating estimates $6.82 billion
• Adjusted operating margin 42% vs. 43% y/y, missing estimates of 42.2%
• Remaining performance obligations $523 billion, up 15% and beating est of $519.4BN 

Commenting on the quarter, Larry Ellison said that "we are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from NVIDIA, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy,” said Oracle Chairman and CTO, Larry Ellison. The question, of course, is where will the money come from for the company which has spooked the stock - and especially bond market - with its CDS soaring to the highest since the GFC, as markets realized that ORCL will need to issue a lot more debt to fund its capex. 

Ellison also said that “Oracle sold Ampere because we no longer think it is strategic for us to continue designing, manufacturing and using our own chips in our cloud datacenters."

There was the token AI pitch of course: "There are going to be a lot of changes in AI technology over the next few years and we must remain agile in response to those changes."

"Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) increased by $68 billion in Q2—up 15% sequentially to $523 billion—highlighted by new commitments from Meta, NVIDIA, and others," said Oracle Principal Financial Officer, Doug Kehring.

So what to make of these results? Well, as we noted in our preview, while three months ago, Oracle’s scorching earnings outlook sent the shares soaring to their best day in three decades, today things look very different for the database software maker and the AI trade in general.   

Heading into today's earnings report, ORCL shares plunged 33% since Sept. 10 (and more than 40% at the lows), when they hit an all-time high based on enthusiasm for raging growth in its cloud business. Today, Oracle and many other artificial intelligence companies are facing a wave of skepticism due to heavy capital expenditures and the circular nature of some arrangements.

Today's results were mixed at best: yes earnings beat, but Oracle posted disappointing cloud revenue, signaling it will take longer than expected for the company’s recent huge AI bookings to pay off.  As noted above, Q2 cloud sales increased 34% to $7.98 billion, while revenue in the company’s closely watched infrastructure business increased 68% to $4.08 billion. Both numbers fell just short of analysts estimates.

The silver lining: Oracle's remaining performance obligation, a measure of bookings, jumped to $523 billion in the fiscal second quarter, which ended Nov. 30, the company said Wednesday in a statement. Analysts, on average, estimated $519 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Still, ORCL needs to start monetizing this backlog instead of just parading with how much it may collect at some point in the future. 

Oracle has found recent success in the competitive cloud computing market. It’s engaging in a massive data center build-out to power AI work for OpenAI and also counts companies such as ByteDance’s TikTok and Meta Platforms as major cloud customers.

Still, as Bloomberg notes, Wall Street has raised doubts about the costs and time lines required to develop AI infrastructure at such a massive scale. Oracle has taken out massive sums of debt and committed to leasing multiple data center sites; its off-balance sheet debt is also emerging as a potential risk.

Investors want to see Oracle turn its higher spending on new data center infrastructure into revenue as quickly as it has promised. Capital expenditures, a metric of data center spending, were about $12 billion in the quarter, an increase from $8.5 billion in the preceding period. Analysts anticipated $8.25 billion in capital spending in the quarter.  In September, the company projected capital expenditures of $35 billion for the fiscal year. 

Part of the negative sentiment from investors in recent weeks is tied to increased skepticism about the business prospects of OpenAI, which is seeing more competition from companies like Google, wrote Kirk Materne, an analyst at Evercore ISI, in a note ahead of earnings. Investors would like to see Oracle management explain how they could adjust spending plans if demand from OpenAI changed, he added.

But the biggest question, however, is the one we flagged earlier: where/when will the money to fund all this massive capex growth come from... and it better not be all debt because in that case the Barclays bear case of zero cash in late 2026 comes into play and ORCL's CDS will go straight up. The company better have a ready answer during the earnings call 

ORCL shares slumped 6% in after hours after closing at $223.27 in New York. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 16:38

11 Signs That Our World Is Rapidly Becoming A Lot More Orwellian

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

All over the globe, the digital control grid that we are all living in just continues to get even tighter. They are using facial recognition technology to scan our faces, they are using license plate readers to track where we travel, they are systematically monitoring the conversations that we are having on our phones, and they are watching literally everything that we post on social media. At this stage, many of us just assume that nothing that we do or say is ever truly private. We really do live in a “Big Brother society”, and the potential for tyranny is off the charts. In fact, people are already getting arrested for “thought crimes” all over the world. If we do not take a stand now, someday soon we could wake up in a world where there is essentially no freedom left at all.

The exponential growth of AI technology is allowing authorities to watch, track, monitor and control us like never before.  If you are not alarmed by this, you might want to check if you are still alive.  The following are 11 signs that our world is rapidly becoming a lot more Orwellian…

#1 UK authorities are rolling out “a country-wide facial recognition system” that will use AI facial recognition cameras to watch the entire population…

On Thursday, officials in the UK pledged to roll out a country-wide facial recognition system to help police track down criminals. The country’s ministers have launched a 10-week consultation to analyze the regulatory and privacy framework of their AI-powered surveillance panopticon — but one way or another, the all-seeing eye is on its way.

There’s just one tiny wrinkle: the AI facial recognition cameras have a tendency to misidentify non-white people.

New reporting by The Guardian notes that testing of the AI tech conducted by the National Physical Laboratory (NPL) found that it‘s “more likely to incorrectly include some demographic groups in its search results” — specifically Black and Asian people.

#2 Of course the control freaks in the UK also monitor everything that gets posted on social media.  One British man recently found this out the hard way when he was arrested for posing with a legally-owned gun in the United States…

A Yorkshire man was arrested over a photo he posted on social media featuring him holding a legally owned gun in the US.

Jon Richelieu-Booth posted a photo of himself in August holding a gun on LinkedIn while he was on a holiday in Florida.

He said he held the firearm lawfully, on private land and with full permission from its owner.

#3 If you do not believe that “thought crime” is real, just consider this next example.  11 police officers recently barged in and arrested a 34-year-old woman that was sitting naked in her own bathtub because she used offensive words while texting another woman on her phone…

The United Kingdom has become an authoritarian nightmare, and the United States must remain vigilant if it does not want to go down the same course.

Elizabeth Kinney, a 34-year-old care assistant, was naked in the bathtub when 11 police officers barged into her home to arrest her.

Her crime was sending insults to another woman via text.

How would you feel if 11 police officers were staring at you while you were naked?

As she was being informed that she had engaged in “malicious communications”, tears started flowing from Kinney’s eyes…

Kinney burst into tears as male officers denied her any privacy, and a female officer informed her that she was being arrested for “malicious communications and hate crime.” “The Crown place this offense in the highest category of its type due to the effect related to sexual orientation and the greater harm because it had moderate impact,” prosecutors insisted. Kinney faced ten years in prison, but her attorney begged for leniency. She has been ordered to perform seventy-two hours of community service, attend ten days of rehabilitation, and pay a fine of several hundred pounds.

#4 French President Emmanuel Macron wants the power to determine which media outlets will be allowed to speak to the public and which media outlets will be silenced…

Macron has in the last weeks intensified warnings on the risks of disinformation, on Friday calling for changes to French legislation that would allow “false information” online to be urgently blocked.

He has also called for “professional certification” of outlets to distinguish sites and networks that provide reliable information according to ethical rules from others that do not.

But at the weekend, the Journal du Dimanche Sunday newspaper, part of the influential media stable of right-wing tycoon Vincent Bollore, accused Macron in a front-page story of a “totalitarian drift” on the issue.

#5 Because he is a champion of free speech, the EU has been coming after Elon Musk for years.  So it shouldn’t surprise any of us that the European Commission just fined his company 140 million dollars for supposed violations of the Digital Services Act…

The European Commission has issued a $140 million fine to Elon Musk’s X for violating the EU’s controversial Digital Services Act (DSA). The fine is likely to escalate tensions between the EU and America over free speech online.

Bloomberg reports that the European Commission has imposed a €120 million ($140 million) fine on X, Elon Musk’s social media platform, for breaching the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). This marks the first penalty issued under the new censorship law, which aims to regulate online platforms and “protect” users from illegal content and disinformation.

#6 In recent years, we have seen so many controversial voices suddenly have their bank accounts shut down.  Shockingly, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is now publicly admitting that his company does “debank” people…

As JPMorgan Chase Bank is under investigation by the state of Florida for alleged coordination with the Biden Department of Justice and Operation Arctic Frost, the chairman of the company is admitting to debanking certain customers, but says it has nothing to do with their political or religious affiliations.

“We do debank them,” said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who appeared on “Sunday Morning Futures” with Maria Bartiromo on the Fox News Channel.

“People have to grow up here and stop making up things and stuff like that. I can’t talk about an individual account.

#7 India wants to require that phone location services are always on so that the government can track people through their phones wherever they go…

You know what they say: If at first you don’t succeed at mass government surveillance, try, try again. Only two days after India backpedaled on its plan to force smartphone makers to preinstall a state-run “cybersecurity” app, Reuters reports that the country is back at it. It’s said to be considering a telecom industry proposal with another draconian requirement. This one would require smartphone makers to enable always-on satellite-based location tracking (Assisted GPS).

The measure would require location services to remain on at all times, with no option to switch them off. The telecom industry also wants phone makers to disable notifications that alert users when their carriers have accessed their location. According to Reuters, India’s home ministry was set to meet with smartphone industry executives on Friday, but the meeting was postponed.

#8 A journalist in the Netherlands has tested AI-powered glasses “that can instantly identify strangers on the street”…

A Dutch journalist just tested a pair of AI-powered glasses that can instantly identify strangers on the street.

No government database. No police system. Just public data and off-the-shelf AI.

You look at someone and in seconds, their name, LinkedIn, and background appear before your eyes.

The scariest part? You can’t really stop it.

You can ban it, regulate it, add blinking red lights… but once tech like this exists, someone will always find a way to use it.

Once these sorts of devices become widely available, there will be nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.

#9 A nationwide digital ID is being introduced in the UK, and soon you will not be able to get a new job without one…

Once introduced, digital ID will be used to verify a person’s right to live and work in the UK.

It will take the form of an app-based system, stored on smartphones in a similar way to the NHS App or digital bank cards.

The ID will include information on the holders’ residency status, name, date of birth, nationality and their photo.

When he first announced the scheme, Sir Keir said: “You will not be able to work in the United Kingdom if you do not have digital ID. It’s as simple as that.”

#10 The digital ID program in France “is moving from pilot to scale”…

France’s national digital identity app, France Identité, has enabled the creation of more than 3.2 million digital IDs, according to new figures.

Among these, approximately 525,000 identities have been fully certified, meaning that users have completed an in-person verification process at their local town halls. This means that more than half a million French digital IDs are ready for the EU Digital Identity (EUDI) Wallet, according to Joerg Lenz, head of marketing at Namirial Group.

“France Identité is moving from pilot to scale,” Lenz wrote on LinkedIn, following the TRUSTECH Event held in Paris on Wednesday.

#11 In Illinois, there is such overwhelming demand for digital IDs that some people are being forced to wait…

Mobile IDs became available in Illinois on Wednesday, but due to the high demand, some residents are finding themselves waiting a little bit longer.

A number of residents trying to download the digital ID to their Apple wallet received the following message: “Due to the high volume, your state’s service is currently busy.”

Users can then answer the question, “Do you want to be notified when it becomes available?”

This is where the entire world is heading.

As the Big Brother control grid gets tighter and tighter, the stage is being set for unprecedented tyranny on a global scale.

Tyrants of the past could only dream of having the sort of AI-powered tools that we possess today.

If you do not submit to the digital gulag that is being constructed all around us, eventually you may not be able to buy, sell, get a job or open a bank account without proper digital identification.

What would you do then?

You might want to start thinking about that, because things are only going to get crazier from here.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 16:20

'Most Divided' Fed In 37 Years Cuts Rates; Restarts Balance Sheet Growth

Tl;dr: The FOMC cut rates by 25bps to 3.50-3.75% as expected, with a 9-3 vote split; Miran sought a 50bps cut, while Goolsbee and Schmid preferred no change.

• It reiterated data dependence, signalling further adjustments will hinge on the evolving outlook, labor market conditions, inflation dynamics, expectations, and global and financial developments.

• Policy guidance was tweaked, changing the the phrase "in considering additional adjustments'' becomes "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments."

• In its updated Statement of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed Funds projections were essentially unchanged, signalling steady expectations for a gradual return toward the longer-run rate. However, the 2025 dot plot composition shows six members' projected rates at the end of 2025 at 3.75-4.00%, indicating that four non-voters would have voted to keep rates on hold at today's meeting if they had voting rights.

• The Fed noted slower job gains and a slight rise in unemployment through September. Compared with October, the December statement updates the labor-market reference by replacing "the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August" with “the unemployment rate has edged up through September." Unemployment forecasts are only marginally firmer in the out-years, suggesting a more resilient labor market.

• Inflation has increased since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. Core PCE expectations have eased modestly, indicating a marginally softer inflation path and slightly more confidence in disinflation over the forecast horizon.

• Economic activity is described as expanding at a moderate pace, with uncertainty around the outlook still high and downside risks to employment having risen recently. The December SEP projects a stronger increase in 2026 GDP compared to the Sept SEP.

• The Fed said reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will use shorter-term Treasury purchases when needed to maintain sufficient reserves. October's balance-sheet guidance, "the Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1" is removed; instead, December adds new guidance: “the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves."

* * *

Since the last FOMC meeting (on October 29th), The Fed has largely been flying blind from a macro data perspective (thanks to the government shutdown) with the sporadic 'hard' data outperforming while 'soft' data has shit the bed and alternative labor market insights remain mixed at best (and extremely lagged at worst)...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, it is labor market data that has 'outperformed' since the last FOMC (so the hawks have a point) while surveys and inflation data has faded (doves can point to)...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold has been the biggest gainer since the last FOMC as bonds and crude oil plunged. Stocks and the dollar are basically unchanged...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut odds have been jawboned wildly since the last FOMC, tumbling on Powell's hawkish bias (and plunging later on follow-on hawkish FedSpeak) only to surge back to a lock (100%) following Fed's Williams dovish comments right before the blackout began...

Source: Bloomberg

Today, we also get a fresh set of Dots, which many expect to shift more hawkishly. As the chart below shows, the market is already dramatically more dovish than the 'old' Dots...

Source: Bloomberg

The number of dissents will be on many people's watchlist with WSJ's Fed Whsiperer, Nick Timiraos, noting that "as many as five of the 12 voting members of the Fed’s policy committee, and 10 of all 19 members, have signaled in speeches or public interviews that they didn’t see a strong case to cut. Of those, only one formally dissented from the central bank’s decision to cut rates in October."

Hey @AskPolymarket what are the odds December FOMC meeting will have 4 dissenters or more.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 21, 2025

The market is expecting 3 or more dissents...

So, we have five things to watch in today's Fed discussions: Rate-change (cut is a done deal, but then what), Dissents (record split), Dots (hawkish bias), Balance Sheet (QE begins?), Presser (hawkish?).

FOMC

As was 100% expected, The Fed cut rates...

• *FED CUTS BENCHMARK RATE TARGET RANGE TO 3.5%-3.75% IN 9-3 VOTE

But, also - as expected - there were dissents... the most since 1988

• Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted against the decision in favor of lowering rates by a half-point, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee dissented in favor of holding rates steady

FORWARD GUIDANCE (flying blind?):

• Fed to assess incoming data, evolving outlook and balance of risks in considering extent and timing of further adjustments

• Fed says it will monitor implications of incoming information for economic outlook

• Fed prepared to adjust policy stance if risks emerge impeding goal attainment

• Fed assessments to consider labor market conditions, inflation pressures, inflation expectations, financial and international developments

LABOR MARKET

• Fed says job gains slowed and unemployment edged up through September

INFLATION

• Fed says inflation moved up since earlier in year and remains somewhat elevated GDP GROWTH

• Fed says economic activity expanding at a moderate pace

BALANCE OF RISKS

• Fed says uncertainty about economic outlook remains elevated

• Fed judges downside risks to employment rose in recent months

But the “Dot plot” of rate projections did not signal a much more hawkish trajectory:

The median official expected to lower rates by a quarter-point in 2026 and another quarter-point in 2027, the same as they projected in September

In fact, arguably 2026 dots show a very slight dovish tilt from September (with the number of Fed voters wanting no cuts or a hike down from 8 to 7...

BALANCE SHEET (full details here)

• On December 10, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to increase System Open Market Account (SOMA) securities holdings to maintain an ample level of reserves through purchases in the secondary market of Treasury bills (or, if needed, of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less).

• These reserve management purchases (RMPs) will be sized to accommodate projected trend growth in the demand for Federal Reserve liabilities as well as seasonal fluctuations, such as those driven by tax payment dates.

• Monthly amounts of RMPs will be announced on or around the ninth business day of each month alongside a tentative schedule of purchase operations for the subsequent approximately thirty days.

• The Desk plans to release the first schedule on December 11, 2025, with a total amount of RMPs of approximately $40 billion in Treasury bills; purchases will start on December 12, 2025.

• The Desk anticipates that the pace of RMPs will remain elevated for a few months to offset expected large increases in non-reserve liabilities in April. [ZH: and in May Powell is out and Trump replaces him with a dovish surrogate].

• After that, the pace of total purchases will likely be significantly reduced in line with expected seasonal patterns in Federal Reserve liabilities. Purchase amounts will be adjusted as appropriate based on the outlook for reserve supply and market conditions.

• The Desk was also directed in October to reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills via secondary market purchases. The monthly schedule of planned purchases will include RMPs as well as these purchases.

• The Desk plans to distribute the monthly secondary market purchases across two Treasury bill sectors. Purchase amounts in each sector will be determined by sector weights. These sector weights will be based on the 12-month average of the par amount of Treasury bills outstanding in each sector relative to the total amount outstanding across the two sectors as initially measured at the end of September 2025.

For the purists this is "Reserve Management Purchases", for the non-purists, QE is back with us.

SEP PROJECTIONS:

Fed Funds

• 2025: 3.625% (exp. 3.625%, prev. 3.625%)
• 2026: 3.375% (exp. 3.375%, prev. 3.375%)
• 2027: 3.125% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.125%)
• 2028: 3.125% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.125%)
• Longer run: 3.00% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.00%)

GDP Growth

• 2025:1.7% (exp. 1.8%, prev. 1.6%)
• 2026: 2.3% (exp. 1.8%, prev. 1.8%)
• 2027: 2.0% (exp. 1.9%, prev. 1.9%)
• 2028:1.9% (exp. 1.8%, prev. 1.8%)
• Longer run: 1.8% (exp. 1.8%, prev. 1.8%)

Unemployment rate

• 2025: 4.5% (exp. 4.5%, prev. 4.5%)
• 2026: 4.4% (exp. 4.5%, prev. 4.4%)
• 2027: 4.2% (exp. 4.4%, prev. 4.3%)
• 2028: 4.2% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%)
• Longer run: 4.2% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%)

PCE Inflation

• 2025: 2.9% (exp. 2.9%, prev. 3.0%)
• 2026: 2.4% (exp. 2.6%, prev. 2.6%)
• 2027: 2.1% (exp. 2.1%, prev. 2.1%)
• 2028: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%)
• Longer run: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%)

Core PCE Inflation

• 2025: 3.0% (exp. 3.0%, prev. 3.1%)
• 2026: 2.5% (exp. 2.6%, prev. 2.6%)
• 2027: 2.1% (exp. 2.2%, prev. 2.1%)
• 2028: 2.0% (exp. 2.1%, prev. 2.0%)

Finally, in a difference from the state of play into December 2024's hawkish cut, we note that equity positioning into the Fed looked skewed toward expectations for a benign or mildly hawkish cut that leaves the high-beta rotation intact, with the SPX still contained in a wider trading range.

Implied, realized and vol-of-vol are all back at more normal levels after November’s turbulence, while correlations and the tail-risk indexes sit in the middle or lower end of recent bands. The SPX term structure was in gentle backwardation into the FOMC, with forward implied vols pointing to only a modest post-meeting decline due to the importance of next week’s CPI and jobs report data.

SPX options are pricing a +/-0.7% move for FOMC day, largely in-line with expectations ahead of the past 8 FOMC events (+/-0.8%).

Will we get a surprise?

On average, the S&P 500 has moved +/-0.6% during the last 8 FOMC meetings with realized moves coming lower than expectations during all events except the December FOMC (hawkish cut) which saw an outsized move (-2.9%) relative to unusually low expectations (+/-0.7%).

Read the full red-line below...

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 16:00

Musk Reveals Life On "Hardcore Mode" As Serious Security Concerns Linger Amid Radical Left Threat

Elon Musk said on the Katie Miller podcast that the current threat environment from radical left-wing activists remains too dangerous for him to appear in public, especially after the political assassination of Charlie Kirk.

Miller asked Musk:

"When's the last time you did something extremely ordinary like go to Target or CVS?"

Musk responded: 

"I can't go to things where there's the general public because I'm there, there's an immediate, can I have a selfie line that forms, and these days, particularly in light of Charlie Kirk's murder, there are serious security issues. It's not that I don't want to. I simply can't." 

Miller then asked:

"Has Charlie's murder changed how you do things or were you already locked down pretty well before that?"

Musk responded:

"It certainly reinforced the severity of the situation where life is on hardcore mode. You make one mistake, and you're dead, and it only takes one mistake."

Here's the clip: 

Musk is referring to what we view as a heightened threat environment stemming from Democratic-aligned NGOs and activist groups over his DOGE initiatives earlier this year. 

The pressure campaign against Musk, driven by left-wing orgs, was followed by incidents in which radical militants firebombed Tesla vehicles at showrooms. At the same time, progressive lawmakers like Tim Walz publicly highlighted Tesla's plummeting stock price.

This campaign of chaos against Musk was amplified by left-wing activist groups that assembled outside Tesla locations, who handed out signs to paid protesters that read Musk is a 'fascist' or 'Nazi'... Remember, these groups have already projected ... 

However, this entire effort to bankrupt Tesla actually failed, as we pointed out on Tuesday (read report)...

As for the Trump administration, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller has declared war on radical left-wing groups after Kirk's assassination.

Even Deep State publication The Atlantic had to admit the obvious ...

The broad view here: General Flynn Calls For National Address From Trump On Color Revolution Threat ... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 15:45

Wall Street Reacts To Powell's "More Dovish Than Expected" Rate Cut

Consensus was expecting a hawkish rate cut, and while it got the cut, the hawkish elements - more dissenters, higher dots, a pushback by Powell during the presser - did not not materalize, and instead we have a low-grade revolt by the non-voters at the Fed (6 dots for unch today, only 2 dissents, more 3 dots expecting a rate hike in 2026), yet that will be promptly snuffed by whoever Trump picks to replace Powell next May.

In fact, one can say that today's meeting was much more dovish than expected when accounting for the $40BN in T-Bill purchases coming in two days (just as we said would happen) which was a very contrarian call. And not only was this announced by a NY Fed implementation, but Powell decided to put that right in the statement, something that has not happened since the liquidity crunch after covid in early 2020.

With that in mind, let's take a look at some kneejerk reactions from Wall Street traders and strategists:

David Mericle, Head of US Econ at Goldman Sachs:

• “A lot of little hawkish elements, but largely in line. Now we need to see what Powell says for the full read”
• 25bp cut - still 1 cut in 2026 and 1 in 2027, as expected
• Statement language changed to 'in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments' as expected.
• Schmidt and Goolsbee hawkish dissents (in line - plus Miran for a larger cut, so 3 total)
• In the dot plot, have 6 hawkish dissents for next year – more than Goldman expected
• Fed have also announced resumption of purchases to keep balance sheet steady - they put that right in the statement

Mike Cahill, Macro FX Research at Goldman:

This all looks very close to GS expectations, so will come down to Powell's presentation in the press conference. I'm most interested in how he characterizes the debate on the Committee and risks to the labor market--what would it take for them to be ready to move again. Most notably to me in that context, they've kept their forecast for the Q4 unemployment rate average at 4.5%. That implies a much slower rate of increase than we've been seeing lately. The current rate is 4.44%, so this requires a little less than 5bp a month to meet the median. 7ppl expect it too move up to 4.6-4.7, which would be in line with the recent average. The GDP forecast for this year also implies they are penciling in a pretty big hit to growth in Q4 and a decent transfer into next year so a sizeable hit from the shutdown presumably. On net, I would characterize that labor market forecast as optimistic rather than obviously hawkish, but it will depend on how much weaker it would need to be to get the Committee to reconsider that "extent and timing" of additional easing. I expect Powell will convey that the hurdle is relatively high given the 6 soft dissents already, but will see whether he brings up some of those risks more than he did in October.

Anna Wong, Bloomberg Chief Economist: 

“We assess the overall tone of the statement and updated projections as leaning dovish — though there are some hawkish undertones. On the dovish side, the committee sharply revised up the growth trajectory while lowering the inflation outlook, and kept the dot plot unchanged. The FOMC also announced the commencement of reserve-management purchases. On the other hand, there’s a signal in the policy statement that suggests the committee is inclined for an extended hold.

Even though the dot plot shows just one 25-bp cut in 2026 — markets are pricing two — our view is that the Fed will end up cutting by 100 bps next year. That’s because we anticipate weak payroll growth and currently see scant signs of an inflation resurgence in the first half of 2026.”

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Rates Strategist

“What the Federal Reserve seems to have forgotten is that reserve balances are either ample, or not. If the Fed wants to maintain an ample supply of reserves, I’m still unsure why it isn’t considering temporary open-market operations around tax days and other periods when reserve balances tend to fall as the TGA rises. Doing permanent operations is more difficult to explain to market participants, and although we understand the need for slow increases on the asset side of the balance sheet -- similar to, but larger than, pre-2007 operations -- we think using traditional repos to calibrate reserve demand would be a good way to right-size asset purchases.”

Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management:

“With the recent scarcity of economic data and the wide dispersion in neutral rate estimates, it is hard to imagine any level of confidence in the economy that would lead to unanimous Fed voting. We expect the Fed to pause and assess the lagged effects of prior tightening. While some additional easing is likely in 2026, it will probably be marginal and contingent on greater confidence—and evidence—regarding the health of the US economy.”

Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank:

"I'd want to ask Chair Powell if the committee has already internalized some of the weakness expected in next week’s belated jobs data. I’d like to get confirmation from the chair today."

Raphael Thuin, Tikehau Capital: 

“With limited visibility on the data path, policymakers are forced to balance softening labor signals against the need to keep inflation moving lower. The result is greater policy uncertainty—likely a key driver of market volatility as we approach 2026.”

Jim Bianco, Bianco Research:

"A big issue is that the US will have a new Fed chair next year. And the new chair may be perceived as having a political agenda. That’s why I wanted to see more dissents to signal that they were ready, willing and able to be that political break. Maybe they will once we get that new Fed chairman but then that looks political that they didn’t take the chance to do it before the new guy came.”

Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab UK

“By acting pre-emptively, the Fed is signaling caution in the face of mounting downside risks, particularly as global growth remains sluggish and policy uncertainty persists. For investors, this is a measured adjustment rather than a dramatic pivot. While the cut could offer near-term support for risk assets, and potentially fuel a seasonal ‘Santa rally’, volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets assess the implications for future policy and the broader economic outlook.”

Source: Bloomberg

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 15:30

FTA Threatens To Cut Funds To Chicago Transit Authority After Woman Set On Fire

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Transit Authority has threatened to withdraw funding for Chicago’s public transport network if the city doesn’t “measurably reduce assaults on transit workers and passengers” and address “unsafe conditions that have contributed to increased crime.”

FTA Administrator Marc Molinaro on Dec. 8 sent letters to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, outlining a Dec. 15 deadline for the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) to develop a “verifiable security enhancement plan” to be implemented in full across the CTA’s bus and rail system by Dec. 19 or risk cuts to federal funding.

The special directive also ordered the CTA to update its public transportation agency safety plan by the end of December and share that plan with the FTA within seven days of approval by the CTA’s Transit Board Committee.

The CTA is an FTA-regulated transit agency and must comply with the FTA’s safety oversight through special directives by the specified deadlines. Otherwise, it could face up to 25 percent cuts in federal funding under the Urbanized Area Formula Grants program authorized by statute 49 U.S.C. § 5307.

In the letters, Molinaro cited an attack last month in which 26-year-old female commuter Bethany MaGee was set on fire while traveling on a Chicago train, leaving her with life-threatening burns. She survived but remains hospitalized, with years of surgeries ahead of her.

Police arrested 50-year-old Lawrence Reed of Chicago the next morning. He was charged with committing a terrorist attack. Molinaro said in the letter that Reed was previously arrested 72 times.

He was on pretrial release at the time of the attack. Molinaro said in the letter that Reed was released after being charged with assaulting a social worker in August. Online court records did not list an attorney for Reed.

“Illinois is notorious for being the first state in the U.S. to impose a deadly cashless bail policy that allows alleged criminals to be released from jail without paying any money while they await trial,” the FTA said in a statement.

The Cook County chief judge’s office, when asked to comment on the case, pointed to a state law that limits judges’ ability to deny the release of defendants ahead of their trials.

Molinaro said the “preventable” attack on MaGee was not an isolated incident, pointing to “high crime rates on CTA property.”

A Chicago Transit Authority train pulls into the new Damen Ave. station just two blocks from the United Center on Aug. 12, 2024. Charles Rex Arbogast/AP Photo

This included reports to the FTA of a violent crime rate four times higher than the national average, marked by four homicides in the past 18 months and a more than doubling of assaults against workers and riders in the last five years.

The attack “reflects systemic failures in both leadership and accountability on all levels that cannot be tolerated,” Molinaro wrote. “I will not accept the brutal assault of an innocent 26-year-old woman as an inevitable cost of providing public transportation.”

The FTA administrator said if the CTA does not quickly increase its law enforcement presence, the FTA will act, “including by withholding federal funds.”

“Transit leaders and elected officials who fail to enforce basic laws and permit disorder to erode the integrity of their systems are making deliberate choices that endanger riders,” he said.

Johnson told reporters Dec. 9 that his office will respond to the Federal Transit Administration letter.

“We do have to look at what the security apparatus looks like for public transportation,” the mayor said. “I don’t need a letter from the Trump administration to tell me what my priorities are.”

Pritzker also responded to the FTA letter at a press conference.

“This is the federal government threatening state and local government with taking away federal funds for a purpose that they’re not allowed to,” he ‌said. “We want the safest possible and most modern transit system in the entire country, and that’s what we’re prepared to implement.”

Illinois passed public transit reform that includes increased funding for public safety programs, including combating violent crime on public transit, his office said.

A CTA spokesperson said in a statement that the agency is reviewing the FTA request and will “respond within the requested timeline.” Its operations rely heavily on federal funding, particularly for capital improvement projects.

The Trump administration in October announced it was withholding $2.1 billion for Chicago infrastructure projects, including expansion plans for the Red Line L commuter train. The project would have established stops in some of the city’s poorest neighborhoods. White House budget officials said at the time that they wanted to ensure funding wasn’t moving through race-based contracting.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 13:45

"Bud Light" Moment Hits Cracker Barrel: Stock Crushed, Traffic Slides, Guidance Slashed

Cracker Barrel shares are lower in premarket trading after posting softer-than-expected quarterly sales and cutting full-year revenue and profit guidance. Customer traffic dropped more than anticipated, driven in part by backlash after the casual dining chain effectively "Bud Lighted" itself with a disastrous woke rebranding.

The rebranding ... 

... which was eventually reversed and the marketing 'expert' resigned, appears to have a lasting impact on sales. 

First-quarter results swung to an adjusted loss of 74 cents per share versus a profit a year ago, slightly better than the Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Revenue dipped 6% and missed forecasts, with comparable sales for both restaurants and retail declining more than expected.

Wall Street analysts were spooked by the 7.3% decline in customer traffic for the quarter. 

Snapshot: First quarter results (courtsey of Bloomberg): 

• Adjusted loss per share 74c vs. EPS 45c y/y, estimate loss/shr 79c

• Revenue $797.2 million, -5.7% y/y, estimate $801.1 million

• Restaurant comp sales -4.7% vs. +2.9% y/y, estimate -4.02%

• Retail comparable sales -8.5% vs. -1.6% y/y, estimate -6.5%

Ongoing traffic deterioration sharply reduced annual sales and profit guidance (courtsey of Bloomberg):

• Sees revenue $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion, saw $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, estimate $3.38 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees capital expenditure $110 million to $125 million, saw $135 million to $150 million

• Sees adjusted Ebitda $70 million to $110 million, saw $150 million to $190 million

In premarket trading, Cracker Barrel shares are down about 5.5%. As of Tuesday's close, the stock has been cut in half since the August rebranding debut. 

Here's what Wall Street analysts are saying (courtsey of Bloomberg);

Piper Sandler (neutral, PT to $27 from $49), Brian Mullan

• "Unfortunately, the struggles that kicked off in August have continued at CBRL, with traffic in the quarter down 7.3% (better in the beginning of August, and then worse after that)," Mullan writes

• Traffic for the fiscal 2Q-to-date period is running down 11%, and management "materially" reduced its annual guidance

• Cracker Barrel is sticking with many of the turn-around efforts designed to help over the long-term, but the main takeaway from the 3Q report/conference is that "things remain pretty tough at the business in the here and now"

Citi (sell PT to $20 vs. $24), Jon Tower

• "The traffic slump spurred by the ill-fated logo change resonated through F1Q results, and, along with a softer restaurant backdrop, prompted a weaker start to F2Q and a FY26 guidance cut," Tower writes

• In the near-term, the company is "mixing in tactical sales drivers," like buy-one-get-one and holiday promos, that may "prove costly" to the P&L, and weaving in longer-term initiatives to "sustainably drive the top line and preserve profits."

• Believes the stock will remain under pressure until traffic/sales show "sustained improvement, as out-year numbers remain a question mark"

Truist (buy, PT to $45 from $50), Jake Bartlett

• "Sales trends have not begun to recover from the 8/19 re- branding fiasco, or any recovery has been offset by macro pressures," Bartlett writes 

• Says Cracker Barrel is "taking the right steps" to boost traffic, with its focus on improved service and food quality

• This has been reflected in improving guest satisfaction scores and will eventually, he believes, be reflected in a traffic recovery

• Business investments, including adding value to the menu and retaining labor hours, are headwinds to FY26 margins, but should drive operating leverage in FY27

Cracker Barrel is a case study for every other casual dining chain: go woke, get crushed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 13:25

Obamacare Was Not A Failure

Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute,

“You have turned, Mr. President, the right of every American to have access to decent healthcare into reality for the first time in American history.”

Those are the words then-Vice President Joe Biden said to President Obama in the East Room of the White House on March 23, 2010, as he prepared to sign the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act—or Obamacare—into law.

The signing ceremony was jubilant as party leaders celebrated their legislative victory. And across the country, their joy was shared by millions of Obama’s supporters who were convinced that the man they voted for had actually delivered the kind of meaningful reform every politician promises, but few make good on.

Americans listened to Joe Biden proclaim that every American would now have access to decent healthcare. And they listened to Obama recount stories of people he had brought to the ceremony who had gone untreated for various serious medical conditions because they could not afford it, and then suggest that, because of the bill he was about to sign, those stories would be a thing of the past.

I think it’s safe to assume that the Obama supporters who were watching that day would never have imagined that, fifteen years later, Congress would be battling over the extension of several temporary “emergency” subsidies that had had to be put in place to keep Obamacare afloat as healthcare and health insurance costs soared to heights that would have been considered unimaginable to anyone living in 2010.

But here we are.

As Congress fights over not whether but how to extend these covid-era ACA subsidies, it can be tempting to call Obamacare a failure. I mean, how else would you describe an “affordable care” act that made healthcare and health insurance less affordable while requiring a constant influx of new tax dollars to keep it from falling apart?

That’s a reasonable conclusion.

But the problem with it is that it takes the political class at its word and accepts that Obamacare was genuinely meant to make healthcare more affordable and accessible to the American people. It wasn’t.

To understand the true purpose that Obamacare served, you have to first go back and understand why government first intervened in the healthcare market a little over a century ago.

It was not, as the progressive creation myths many of us are taught in school suggest, to protect Americans from maniacal doctors or food and drug companies that were trying to kill them. Nor was it to help Americans afford healthcare—prices back then weren’t anywhere near the absurd levels we see today.

The reason government began intervening in healthcare was because some industry insiders and interest groups recognized that they could achieve and protect a level of market dominance practically unseen up to that point if they stopped merely trying to offer customers more value than their competitors and instead used government power to warp the healthcare industry to their benefit.

That began when a physicians’ interest group maneuvered its way into setting the accreditation standards for American medical schools. That position of influence allowed the group to ban programs that didn’t align with its specific medical philosophy, leading to the forced closure of nearly half the country’s medical schools.

This created an artificial shortage of doctors, which kicked off the affordability crisis that has defined American healthcare ever since.

Of course, the problem was still quite limited in the early days. But as other related industries—especially pharmaceuticals—began falling prey to the same crony dynamic at the heart of the Progressive Era, healthcare quickly began to grow more expensive.

Then, in the middle of the twentieth century, the health insurance industry followed the lead of healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies and lobbied government officials for rules and regulations that benefited insurance companies’ bottom lines.

That effort culminated in a reworking of the tax code under President Truman. The government made employer-provided health insurance tax-deductible while it continued to tax other forms of employee compensation and other means of paying for care. In other words, the government used the tax code to change how Americans paid for healthcare. It didn’t take long for employer-provided insurance plans to become the dominant arrangement and for health insurance to morph away from actual insurance.

Shortly after that happened, the government significantly ramped up demand for the artificially-constrained supply of medical care with the passage of Medicare and Medicaid, leading to an easily-predictable explosion in the price of healthcare.

And, as fewer and fewer people could afford healthcare at these higher prices, more government assistance was required, which meant more demand, higher prices, more need for government support, and so on.

This was not good for everyday Americans, but it was excellent for healthcare providers and drug companies whose revenues were ballooning as more and more cash poured into the healthcare system.

And it was great for the health “insurance” companies. All the taxes on competing means of payment effectively acted as a subsidy, putting the industry in a strong position to benefit from the mounting crisis because, in addition to facilitating most of the country’s healthcare spending, they helped these providers grow far beyond the typical bounds of insurance.

In a free market, insurance serves as a means to trade risk. It works well for accidents and calamities that are hard to predict individually but relatively easy to predict in bulk, like car accidents, house fires, and unexpected family deaths. But with the government incentivizing people to buy healthcare through insurance plans, those plans began to grow to cover easily-predictable occurrences like annual physicals.

So, zooming out, industry leaders and interest groups joined forces with government officials to use government interventions to create a healthcare system designed to move as much money as possible to healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, and the insurance industry. That is, and has always been, the main motivation behind the federal government’s healthcare policy.

But, as with any scheme like this, the party cannot last forever. It only works as long as money keeps coming in. For an important service like healthcare, which most people don’t consider optional, the threshold is pretty high. But there is still a point where premiums grow too high, fewer employers or individual buyers are willing to buy insurance, and the flow of money into the healthcare system starts to falter.

According to the government’s own census data, that tipping point was reached in the early 2000s. For the first time since the scam had really kicked off, the number of people with health insurance began to fall each year. The industry—which had apparently assumed the flow of money would never stop increasing—began to panic.

Something had to be done.

And that something was Obamacare.

Despite all the talk of affordability and access used to sell the bill to the public, the Affordable Care Act is best understood as a ploy by the healthcare industry and the government to keep the party going.

Obamacare required all 50 million uninsured Americans to obtain insurance and greatly expanded what these “insurance” companies covered. Demand for healthcare shot back up, and the vicious cycle started back up again.

As any competent economist was saying before the bill was even passed, ramping demand back up would not make healthcare more “affordable,” it would only raise prices. And that’s exactly what happened.

Of course, as prices rose higher and health “insurance” moved further and further away from actual insurance, it’s made the American people even more dependent on the government for healthcare, which is how we’ve arrived at our current situation where extra, “temporary” subsidies rolled out during an official national emergency need to be made permanent to keep everything going.

So, if you want to take the political establishment at their word, the best you can say is that Obamacare kicked the can down the road and made the healthcare affordability crisis worse in exchange for a bit of temporary relief for some uninsured Americans.

But if you view the ACA within the context of the last century of American healthcare policy, it reversed the faltering demand for healthcare and health insurance, accelerated the racket moving as much money as possible into the industry, and quickly became a new political third rail that the “opposition” party refuses to even consider rolling back.

It’s hard to view that as anything other than a meaningful success.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 13:05

Trump Says National Guard Member Who Survived DC Shooting 'Stood Up Today'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Dec. 9 that West Virginia National Guard member Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe, who was critically injured after being shot in Washington last month, has stood up from his bed and is showing signs of recovery.

Wolfe and fellow National Guard member Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom were shot on Nov. 26 in what U.S. authorities say was an ambush near the White House. Beckstrom died of her injuries the following day, while Wolfe was left in critical condition.

Trump gave an update on Wolfe’s condition during a speech at an event in Pennsylvania.

“Today I got a call that he got up from bed. Do you believe that? He got up, he got up,” he said.

The president added that Wolfe has not spoken yet, noting that the National Guard member had been hit in the head during the attack.

“He didn’t speak, he’s not ready for that yet. I mean, he got hit in the head, but he got up and, boy, they’re so happy. It’s amazing,” he said, while commending the hospital staff and the military for their care.

“The love and the affection and the care that they’re given, they can’t even believe what’s happened. But Andrew stood up today, and people can’t believe it.”

West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey said on Dec. 5 that Wolfe’s head wound is slowly improving, and he is beginning to “look more like himself,” quoting Wolfe’s parents.

Wolfe’s family said they expect him to remain in acute care for another two to three weeks as he continues recovering, according to the governor, adding that they have been “optimistic about his progress.”

“We continue to ask all West Virginians and Americans for their prayers! They are making a difference,” Morrisey said.

The suspect, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, was shot during the confrontation.

Trump said in his speech that the U.S. government will seek the death penalty for Lakanwal, calling the attack an “act of terrorism.”

A makeshift memorial for U.S. Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom and U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe outside of Farragut West Station, near the site where the two National Guard members were shot, in Washington on Dec. 1, 2025. Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP Photo

Lakanwal, an Afghan national who once worked with the CIA and entered the United States in September 2021 through a Biden-era resettlement program, has been charged with first-degree murder, two counts of assault with intent to kill while armed, and three counts of possession of a firearm during a crime of violence.

Last week, he pleaded not guilty to murder and assault charges during his first hearing before a judge, appearing remotely by video from a hospital bed.

A court-appointed defense attorney for Lakanwal entered the plea during the virtual court appearance. The attorney pushed for his release, citing his lack of criminal history.

D.C. Superior Court Judge Renee Raymond ordered Lakanwal held without bond. His case is due back in court on Jan. 14.

A picture of Rahmanullah Lakanwal, an Afghan national who is the suspect in the shooting of two National Guard members, is displayed at a press conference in Washington on Nov. 27, 2025. Nathan Howard/Reuters

Wolfe and Beckstrom were among the National Guard members assigned to Joint Task Force-D.C., activated in August to support local and federal law enforcement efforts in restoring order in the nation’s capital.

Two lawmakers, Reps. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) and Riley Moore (R-W.Va.), introduced a resolution to honor the two National Guard members. A similar measure was also introduced in the Senate.

“This resolution sends a clear message that the American people stand with the Beckstrom family, Andrew Wolfe, and the whole West Virginia National Guard community,” Moore said in a Dec. 3 statement. “We grieve this horrific and senseless attack, and continue to pray for these Guardsmen and their families.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 12:25

Intel Shares Fall After Lawsuits Claim US Chipmakers Aided Russian Weapons

Intel shares slipped in early trading Wednesday after the company was named in a series of lawsuits accusing major U.S. chipmakers of failing to stop their technology from ending up in Russian weapons used against civilians in Ukraine.

Intel, Advanced Micro Devices and Texas Instruments — along with Mouser Electronics, a Berkshire Hathaway–owned distributor — are alleged to have shown “willful ignorance” as restricted semiconductors were resold through third parties to Russia and Iran, according to five suits filed Wednesday in Texas state court.

The cases, brought on behalf of dozens of Ukrainian civilians, cite five attacks from 2023 to 2025 that killed and injured civilians. The filings claim the companies’ components were found in Iranian-made drones tied to Intel and AMD, as well as Russian Iskander and KH-101 missiles.

The defendants allegedly failed to prevent illegal diversions despite U.S. sanctions, amounting to “domestic corporate negligence.” Mass-tort lawyer Mikal Watts filed the suits in Dallas, arguing Texas jurisdiction because the companies operate in the state.

Mouser, acquired by Berkshire in 2007, is accused of helping route chips from Intel, TI and others to shell companies controlled by Russian proxies. The distributor’s U.S.-based logistics were a “substantial domestic component” of the harm, one suit claims.

Intel, AMD, TI, Mouser and Berkshire Hathaway didn’t immediately comment. All three chipmakers have previously said they fully comply with export rules, oppose any use of their technology in Russian weapons and ended business in Russia after the invasion.

Bloomberg reporting last year found U.S. chips continue to power Russian drones, missiles and communications systems despite sanctions, prompting repeated warnings from U.S. lawmakers that manufacturers must do more to stop the flow.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 12:05

Deep Discounts Tempt Indian Refiners To Seek Non-Sanctioned Russian Oil

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The majority of India’s biggest refiners are buying Russian oil from non-sanctioned sellers and traders as widening discounts of Russia’s crudes to benchmarks are tempting the price-sensitive Indian importers, sources involved in the purchases told Bloomberg on Wednesday. 

Before the latest sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, India bought from Russia around one-third of all the crude it imported, as it sought cheaper oil.

Amid tense trade negotiations with the United States, India earlier this year was singled out by U.S. President Donald Trump as the main financier of the Kremlin’s oil revenues.

At the time, India remained adamant that it would buy the cheapest oil available, regardless of whether it came from Russia or elsewhere.    

However, the U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil upended all previous plans by Indian refiners, who hastened to withdraw from the spot market for Russian crude in December.

But Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil) have bought Russian crude from non-sanctioned companies for January delivery, at a discount of $6-$7 to Brent crude, reports emerged last week.

Combined, IndianOil and Bharat Petroleum have purchased in recent days 10 cargoes of non-sanctioned Russian crude, including Urals, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

Another state-owned Indian refiner, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), is seeking non-sanctioned Russian oil for January delivery, the sources said. 

Private refiner Reliance Industries, the owner of the world’s biggest integrated refining complex at Jamnagar, is a notable absence among Indian refiners in the market for non-sanctioned Russian crude, according to Bloomberg. 

Reliance, which operates the 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) Jamnagar complex, has a long-term deal with Rosneft to buy almost 500,000 bpd.

Reliance was India’s single biggest buyer of Russian crude, until now, but it halted all purchases of oil from Russia last month, after the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/10/2025 - 11:40