Trump Says Montana To Get Pentagon's New 'Super Range' For Weapons Testing

President Donald Trump announced at a campaign rally in Kalispell, Montana, on Oct. 14 that the Department of War has chosen the state to host a new weapons testing site. He did not say where in Montana it will be, but we're sure residents are 'overjoyed' at the news.

President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at the Majestic Valley Arena in Kalispell, Mont., on Oct. 14, 2026. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

"Montana will help ensure the American military always reigns supreme," Trump told the crowd at the Majestic Valley Arena, adding: "A lot of other people wanted it also."

He called the project a "super range for testing advanced weapons and technologies, including potential autonomous weapons, space and electronic warfare technology, supersonics, and hypersonics."

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As the Epoch Times notes further,

The announcement is part of the Trump administration's agenda to rebuild the national defense base and accelerate innovation with modernization efforts, including the testing of advanced weapons systems and integration of artificial intelligence.

Details of the new project, including timeline, budget, and operational processes, are limited. The Epoch Times has reached out to the War Department for comment.

It is unclear whether the site will be a standalone operation or an expansion of existing defense infrastructure in the Treasure State, including the Montana Spaceport & Test Range and the Limestone Hills Innovation & Test Campus.

The state's broad spaces and sparse populations make them top candidates for weapons testing.

Midterm Races

Trump was in Montana stumping for Republican candidates running in the midterms. More than 7,000 people waited through traffic jams that took hours to resolve as cars made their way into the parking area to see the president speak.

Voters will soon decide which party controls the legislative branch of government.

Key issues for Montanans include the price of energy and the cost of living.

"Fuel prices are the main thing. Everything runs on diesel," Charles Chandler of Libby, in Lincoln County, told The Epoch Times, noting his desire to see the war with Iran end "one way or the other."

Others in the crowd agreed, repeatedly listing the price of food and fuel as top-of-mind issues. Several said the new weapons site could bring much-needed economic activity to the region.

One of the races on the national map that is being seen as competitive is taking place in the state's First Congressional District, where Republican Aaron Flint is battling Democrat Sam Forstag to replace retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.).

"We're going to elect a true American patriot," Trump said, backing Flint. "He's going to Congress to be a warrior."

Flint, a fifth-generation Montanan, enlisted in the Army after the 9/11 attacks and served in the military for more than 20 years. He criticized his opponent, originally from Portland, Oregon, as a West Coast implant.

"If ever there were a race in the United States of America that was the definition of common sense versus crazy, this is the race," Flint told voters at the rally.

Forstag, a Forest Service smokejumper, union leader, and former lobbyist, is running on a platform prioritizing healthcare and housing reforms and a campaign finance overhaul, including a promise to overturn the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United ruling.

Republican Kurt Alme is vying for the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by outgoing Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) He faces Democrat Alani Bankhead and Independent Seth Bodnar, with recent polling showing the conservative with a slight edge over the split field.

Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte promised to continue his partnership with the Trump administration to support border security, tax cuts, and "unleashing American-made energy by embracing an all-of-the-above strategy, including beautiful, clean Montana coal."

While some media outlets have shown photos of empty seats at the president's recent rallies - seats located behind press risers that blocked attendees' view of the stage - the rodeo arena was standing-room-only, with additional supporters left outside watching on a big screen after the venue reached capacity.

Enthusiastic attendees of all ages, from months-old babies to a 105-year-old local highlighted by speakers, watched the president's address, and many waved signs and chanted "USA" throughout the rally.

Trump made a similar locally connected military announcement in Youngstown, Ohio, on Oct. 12, when he broke the news about a new submarine component production and repair facility.

The president visited Alaska on Oct. 13 before stopping in Arizona earlier Oct. 14. His rally schedule next takes him to Dalton, Georgia; Highland Height, Kentucky; Wichita, Kansas; and Greenville, North Carolina.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 21:30

Pentagon Eyes 'Mother Of All Bombs' For Future Iran Strikes

Anonymous Trump admin officials are apparently once again 'leaking' Iran war military plans to the media. The newest claim is that among potential Pentagon 'options' for a new bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic include deploying the "mother of all bombs".

Prior mainstream media reports suggested President Trump is mulling the resumption of a bombing campaign possibly even before the November midterm elections. But the president's public statements have indicated otherwise.

via Reuters

There now seems a keen and much-belated awareness at the general unpopularity of this war among the US public on the part of the administration. After all, top White House officials including Trump himself had repeatedly promised at the outset of Operation Epic Fury that it would be a swift and decisive campaign.

Officials like Rubio went from saying it could take 'days' to then offering 'four to six weeks' or else saying a couple months. But now we are seven months in, and the end-goal or point that might mark a 'mission accomplished' exit moment has never really been defined. It all along has seemed like a bombing campaign in search of a strategy.

In the meantime, outlets like CNN are running with headlines of Washington's next 'threat' against a defiant and intransigent Iranian leadership, which is busy attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz at levels never seen before:

The US military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the so-called “mother of all bombs” to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should President Donald Trump give the order to resume combat operations either before or after the midterm elections, according to multiple US officials familiar with the matter.

Using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb or MOAB, the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, for the first time in the conflict with Iran would mark a notable escalation, even though there are doubts over how effective it would be in accomplishing any of Trump’s stated strategic objectives or tipping the balance of the war, multiple sources familiar with internal military planning discussions about potentially deploying the weapon said.

CNN does also note that "Trump is facing pressure to bring an end to the deeply unpopular war — as Republicans brace for potential political backlash from voters in the upcoming midterm elections and there is little indication the two countries are close to a negotiated resolution after more than six months of US bombing."

One wonders what the aim or purpose of such headlines touting the use of the "mother of all bombs" is. The Iranians have not changed their position. Their Ayatollah and many top officials have already been assassinated, and Tehran is signaling readiness for a prolonged war.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf in a televised speech on Wednesday invoked the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from 1980 to 1988, when speaking about what his country is ready to endure with the United States.

This suggests Iran is ready to resist for years if necessary, despite the cratering wartime economy amid sweeping Washington sanctions and unprecedented isolation from energy markets.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 21:05

Is There Any Way To Save Social Security, Or Is It Doomed?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

The young do not think about getting old, and this is to the greatest benefit of governments which spend and inflate younger generations out of any future subsidies they might one day come to rely on. For most people in Gen Z, though, there is at least a tacit acknowledgment that they are paying into a system that might not be there for them when they retire. However, their only point of reference is usually the rantings of their socialist college professors or a mob of crazed activists on TikTok.

So, naturally, the only solution they can come up with is MORE power for government, more taxation, more communism and more redistribution of wealth. In other words, give more control and more cash over to the state which already misspent their money.

The idea of pillaging the wealth of others as a shortcut to security for a single generation is not new. This plan is doomed to fail, as it has failed in nearly every socialist system with a population larger than around 10 million people.

Even in "market-capitalist welfare states" that are often cited as "successful" like Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, the ability to continue retirement funding at a rate which provides a livable wage is only possible if the retiring population is much smaller than the working population.

Across the west at present, the larger Baby Boomer generation is aging completely out of the labor pool and these systems are being depleted rapidly. The demographic squeeze is tightening and in the US, those special Treasury securities are now being redeemed - Social Security is set to decline starting in 2034.

Current SS reserves are at $2.56 trillion. These reserve funds are being depleted every year by a spending deficit. The deficit is not fixed and fluctuates wildly, but the overall trend shows it is clearly growing. In 2025 the shortfall was $160 billion (that's the amount of extra money the government has to tax or borrow in order to fully cover the costs of Social Security beyond normal revenues). That deficit is projected to rise to $393 billion by 2033.

As these reserves disappear due to deficits, eventually social security payments will be reduced as a consequence.

By the time I am old enough to collect, Social Security payments will be cut by 22% (accounting for steady inflation). By the time Gen Z is old enough to collect, their SS payments will shrink by 35% with inflation included. The fund does not necessarily implode but the benefits will becomes more and more useless over time.

At bottom, the fund will be dead because it will no longer be able to adapt to inflation. Costs will continue to rise and SS will shrink exponentially. Relying on the system for retirement would be impossible. This is also assuming there is not an economic crisis event in the future which completely derails government funding for SS much sooner.

This brings up a lot of questions...

Is Social Security actually a necessary program? In the US there are currently 71 million beneficiaries of SS and out of that group around 14 million depend entirely on SS checks as their only source of income. An even larger portion of the population needs these checks as supplemental income.

In other words, the program could be scrapped, but it would be devastating to a large percentage of the public. I would argue that if the government is going to operate as an economic backstop for any group, then the elderly should be that group. Anyone who has cared for an elderly relative understands that we will all one day hit an age-wall that prevents us from generating incoming on the fly. We'll either be wealthy and flush with savings and assets, or we will be dependent on the charity of others.

Is Social Security the answer? No, not as it stands now. Many Americans believe that SS is like a savings account where their money is held until they meet the conditions of retirement. This is false. Others might consider it an insurance program, but this is also debatable. Social Security is managed more like a subsidy than a savings account or insurance. The money you paid into the system over your lifetime is long gone.

Public anger is rising among younger generations because they have to pay into subsidies that they have no expectation of benefiting from in the future. Marxist NGOs and activists take advantage of the angst and try to convince people to adopt bigger government and socialist wealth redistribution as the answer to all their problems. This will lead to calamity for the country.

So what is the solution? The vast majority of people would prefer to know that they will be taken care of in their old age. How do we ensure that the elderly are provided for without continually crushing the economy with debt? Let's go through a list of solutions...

Fundamentally Change The Way We Look At Aging And Family

Before 1935 there was no such thing as Social Security, so how did people aging out of the workforce survive? They largely relied on family to help take care of them. For hundreds of years this was the norm in the western world. At the turn of the century around 70% of elderly people lived with their children or other family members, but this practice declined rapidly from the 1920s onward.

This is why the Social Security program was popularized in the first place; far too many older Americans no longer had a family safety net and so they jumped onboard the SS train in response. This is not to say that kids should be "required" to take care of their parents, but the principle should be encouraged.

And, if you think about it, this might also help to encourage better parenting practices and more respect for the nuclear family. Who would want to be a deadbeat parent when their kids will one day be the people they rely on most in old age? Who would want to abort their children when those children are their future safety net? Who would want to get a divorce and break up their family at the risk of being destitute when they hit their twilight years?

Yes, this sounds rather mercenary, but it's foolish to discount selfish incentives as a means to keep civilization functioning. Many people don't need incentives to do the right thing, but many other people DO.

Returning to the old tradition of caring for relatives as a family or tribe would help to prevent mass destitution and suffering of older Americans should Social Security and other programs fail. This doesn't save SS, but it does make the public less dependent on the program.

At-Home Work For The Elderly

The knee-jerk reaction from many people (especially Baby Boomers) on the idea of delaying retirement is anger and outrage. I agree, to a point. These people worked their whole lives, raised families, struggled through national and global crisis events, and made it through to the other side. At 67 years old, they probably deserve a rest.

That said, life is not necessarily fair and expecting the government to be there for you is not exactly the best plan. In order for a safety net to exist for the most desperate people, those who are cognizant and functional might need to adapt. Also, there are many older Americans who would like to earn an income and keep busy but they have aged out of the normal labor pool.

With more older Americans staying in the workforce longer, Social Security deficits could be balanced and the funds could continue to flow for decades to come. For the first time in human history, senior citizens have access to digital jobs and at-home work. It's possible for many older people to function in these fields with proper training programs (and maybe tax incentives for companies that hire the elderly).

I would rather have elderly Americans taking on such work and making money at home than corporations importing a bunch of third world migrants through H-1B visa programs.

Investment Of Social Security Into Appreciating Assets (Stocks And Commodities)

This is another idea that creates deep divides among voters, with the primary question being: What happens to Social Security if there's a market crash and assets plummet in value?

But look at it this way - Over the past decade, if SS savings parked in treasuries were invested in gold and silver instead, the fund would currently have an extra $7 trillion. That would add another 12+ years to the lifespan of those savings. Investment in equities on the Dow Jones would have yielded an extra $8 trillion.

This is only a portion of SS funds and the gains would be undeniable. Is it gambling with the future, and with taxpayer money? Yes, in a way. But risks can be mitigated by diversifying between treasuries and other assets. I would argue that if we don't take radical measures like this, social security is certain to fail, so what do we have to lose?

End Early Draws On Social Security

This is one of the uglier options available, which is to stop all early drawdowns by people ages 62-66 who take SS. They already get a 30% penalty, and ending early draw would slow the drain of funds for much older people.

Cut Funding For The Top 20% Of Earners

Is this punishing people for being successful? Yes. But denying social security for the top 20% of American earners with extensive savings and assets would save $500 billion per year. This would eliminate the current deficit and any future deficits for many years to come.

If someone can live comfortably without SS after retirement, then maybe they should forgo the monthly checks so that SS can exist for others who are not so well off. Again, this is not fair, and I'm not saying I agree with the measure on principle, but if we're talking about survival of the program, this is an obvious strategy.

Increase Fertility Rates And Population Growth

Across the board, not just in the west but in the majority of countries around the world, fertility rates are dropping and populations are growing older. Without enough young people filling the workforce the elderly subset will greatly outweigh the available tax base. In other words, too many hands waiting for too little cash.

This incoming crisis has led to some nefarious people justifying some horrific options. For example, multicultural progressives use the fertility decline as an excuse for mass immigration from the third world. Hey, that's millions of new taxpayers to help support retirement funds, right? Except that these migrants destroy welfare structures and collapse funding even faster.

Other leftist governments (like Canada) are increasingly suggesting government assisted suicide as a way to reduce the elderly population and solve welfare (and healthcare) deficit problems. This is, of course, monstrous and immoral, but fears over debt collapse will lure some people into supporting many otherwise unpalatable evils.

How do we increase population naturally? The only sure way is to increase individual wealth. How do we do that? That's the question of the ages. Socialism is certainly not the answer - No socialist system has ever actually increased the wealth of the middle class without turning to free market means, and even then they tend to stifle productivity and entrepreneurship. If there's a cap on success, individual wealth will fail. This is a fact.

Is There A Better Way?

A lot of people are going to question if Social Security is even worth saving. After all, there has to be a better way. I'm not saying it is or is not worth it, that's a topic for a separate article. The only question here is, CAN Social Security be saved? The answer is yes, given the above measures along with reduced government spending.

The secondary question is - Do we have time? Only if there's not a debilitating crisis that prevents more conservative action. A new inflationary event or a monetary crash would create much bigger worries than whether or not SS will remain intact for another couple decades.

The best overall option is to not rely on SS in the first place. Investing wisely in ones own future and family while preparing for economic disruptions is the only way to ensure your later years are not an exercise in penny pinching misery.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 21:05

Justice Alito: Originalist In Full

Authored by Cully Stimson via The Epoch Times,

Justice Samuel A. Alito's new book, "So Ordered: An Originalist's View of the Constitution, the Court, and Our Country," is not a conventional judicial memoir - and that is precisely its strength. It is a carefully curated collection of 19 lectures and speeches delivered between 2007 and 2025 on subjects constitutional and cultural, solemn and unexpectedly personal. Organized around five themes, the volume offers something rarer than autobiography: a sustained encounter with the mind of one of the Supreme Court's most consequential jurists.

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito attends an event organized by the U.S. Embassy to the Holy See, in Rome, Italy, on Sept. 20, 2025. Vincenzo Livieri/Reuters

The settings are as varied as the subjects. Alito draws lessons from baseball, examines the globalization of judicial review, revisits the Gettysburg Address, celebrates Italian-American achievement, and reflects upon mankind's search for meaning. Across these topics, the famously reserved Justice emerges in fuller dimension. The result is not a miscellany, but a portrait of a judge who understands that law does not operate in a vacuum - and that the Constitution is inseparable from the history, habits, and character of the nation it governs. The book's five themes - originalism and textualism, the role of judges, religious liberty, threats to the Constitution, and the American experience - provide structure and urgency. Each lecture deserves attention. This review examines five of the collection's most illuminating selections, not as a substitute for the whole, but as an invitation.

Originalist Judging

Chapter One opens with a deceptively simple question: How should a judge interpret the Constitution? Alito's answer - originalism - is familiar. His treatment is not. Rather than offer another abstract defense of original public meaning, he asks what originalism looks like when practiced by judges who must decide actual cases, respect precedent, secure colleagues' votes, and live with the consequences of their rulings.

Academic theories enjoy the luxury of coherence, untroubled by circumstance. Judges do not. They operate within an inherited legal system, on multi-member courts, under the discipline of precedent, and with litigants whose liberty, property, and constitutional rights are not classroom hypotheticals. Alito therefore describes himself as a "working judicial originalist."

His organizing device is an originalist judge traveling down a highway and encountering seven exits. Six are wrong turns; the seventh - the road of academic originalism - is legitimate for scholars but often ill-suited for judges. The metaphor works because Alito's argument is not that originalism lacks direction. Rather, it is that originalists may lose their way by mistaking rigidity, antiquarianism, or theoretical purity for constitutional fidelity.

Originalism arose amid dissatisfaction with decisions of the Warren and early Burger Courts and against a jurisprudential background shaped by judicial restraint and deference to political actors. Yet originalism is not simply a doctrine of restraint. Sometimes the Constitution requires judges to invalidate the acts of elected officials. Fidelity may demand boldness.

That insight animates Alito's critique of "insecure originalism." Originalists should not recoil from considering whether their method generally produces sound results. Nor should they congratulate themselves when originalist analysis yields an absurd outcome, as though an unattractive result proved intellectual purity. The law must be followed where it leads, but the conscientious judge should recheck the map before driving over a cliff.

Alito also rejects "show it to me in black-and-white originalism," the notion that every constitutional rule must appear expressly in the document's words. Constitutional structure carries meaning. Federalism, separated powers, and institutional independence may produce necessary implications even when no clause spells them out. Originalism begins with text; it need not end with a refusal to perceive constitutional architecture.

At opposite extremes stand "Icarian" and "archaeological" originalism. The former rises so high into abstraction that constitutional language becomes a vessel for modern aspirations. If broad principles may be detached from the public understanding at ratification, originalism becomes indistinguishable from the theories it was developed to oppose.

Archaeological originalism makes the inverse mistake. It searches obscure historical materials for a legal relic that mechanically answers a modern question. Alito's discussions of Torres v. Madrid and United States v. Jones illustrate the danger. A 17th-century rule on civil arrest or an old property tort may illuminate history, but neither necessarily establishes what ordinary Americans understood the Fourth Amendment to mean. Original public meaning is not an esoteric code decipherable only by specialists equipped with pith helmets and trowels.

"Partial originalism" is similarly unsatisfactory. A ruling cannot fairly be called originalist when an originalist premise is bolted onto non-originalist doctrines that determine the outcome. Nor should "philosophical originalism" treat the Constitution as though it secretly incorporated John Locke or another favored thinker. Founding-era ideas matter, but the public ratified the Constitution, not a pantheon of political philosophers.

Academic originalism presents not error but choice. Scholars may reconstruct doctrine from first principles. Judges must contend with stare decisis, institutional stability, and the practical need to assemble a majority. Alito's discussion of McDonald v. Chicago, a 2010 Second Amendment case, shows why a historically attractive theory may be judicially imprudent if it would unsettle a century of law and open vast doctrinal territory without clear boundaries.

This is the chapter's central contribution. Alito does not dilute originalism; he disciplines it. Judging requires historical fidelity and judgment, principle and prudence, conviction and collegial compromise. Pretending judgment can be eliminated does not eliminate it. It merely conceals it.

Textualism

Chapter Two is at once a tribute, an intellectual history, and a warning. Its subject is Antonin Scalia - his methods, manner, and continuing influence - but its real concern is the rule of law. Alito argues that Scalia rescued statutory interpretation from an undisciplined search for legislative purpose, restored enacted text to its rightful place, and constrained judges who might otherwise mistake policy preferences for law.

Yet some of Scalia's heirs, Alito warns, have carried textualism beyond its sound foundations into "hypertextualism," a cramped method that ignores how language communicates meaning.

Alito wisely begins with the man. Scalia changed the Court's habits. Oral argument became sharper and more demanding. Judicial prose became clearer, livelier, and less embalmed in professional fog. Alito recounts Scalia's refusal to join his opinion in Hein v. Freedom From Religion Foundation, where Scalia called his reasoning "meaningless," inconsistent with the "rule of law," and not "sane." The anecdote demonstrates that Scalia's ferocity was directed at ideas, not persons, while revealing Alito's own measured temperament.

The chapter is strongest when reconstructing the interpretive disorder of the "BS" - before Scalia - era. Judges treated statutes as invitations to rummage through committee reports, floor statements, statutory purposes, and, when necessary, their imaginations. In Overton Park v. Volpe (1971), the Court effectively treated statutory text as a fallback when legislative history proved unclear. In Griggs v. Duke Power Co. (1971), Title VII's text was relegated to a footnote while purpose and legislative history did the work. That inversion should trouble anyone who believes Congress legislates by voting on words, not atmospherics.

Alito's stories from the Solicitor General's Office make the indictment concrete. A suspiciously convenient Senate colloquy captures legislative history's theatrical quality: lawmakers may manufacture interpretive ammunition without persuading either chamber to write the desired meaning into law.

Even better is Professor Robert Blakey's declaration, "I am the legislative history of RICO." The line is funny because, under the old regime, it was nearly plausible.

Scalia's corrective was simple: the text is the law. But Alito insists that this maxim begins interpretation; it does not end it. Judges are Congress's "faithful agents." Their task is to discern the public meaning conveyed by enacted words in context - not to divine secret motives, but neither to pretend that language consists of dictionary definitions lined up like tin soldiers.

Alito's examples involving breakfast, banks, and irony explain the difference between semantic and pragmatic meaning. Context resolves ambiguity, supplies what ordinary speakers understand without saying, and sometimes reveals that literal words convey something different from their bare semantic content.

This is not a retreat to purposivism. Alito endorses Scalia's "objectified intent" - the meaning a reasonable reader, familiar with contemporary usage and the circumstances of enactment, would attach to the text. Unexpressed intentions remain irrelevant; public meaning controls. But public meaning may include sensible inferences about what lawmakers communicated. The canons Scalia championed - noscitur a sociis, expressio unius, and ejusdem generis - work precisely because context permits those inferences.

Alito's discussion of Bostock v. Clayton County supplies the sharpest edge. He argues that the majority's reading of Title VII - treating discrimination because of sexual orientation or gender identity as discrimination "because of sex" - was not compelled by the statute's public meaning in 1964.

His criticism is methodological: the majority treated context that ordinarily illuminates meaning as categorically irrelevant. His Italian-restaurant hypothetical distills the objection: an agent who follows an instruction's literal words while knowingly defeating the principal's communicated meaning is not faithful; he is obtuse.

The chapter's vulnerability also marks its ambition. "Objective intent" is easier to invoke than administer. How much context is enough? Which evidence is reliable? When does context reveal public meaning, and when does it smuggle purpose back into the analysis? Alito does not fully answer these questions. Nevertheless, his central warning persuades. Scalia's revolution was not a command to read statutes woodenly. It demanded that judges respect enacted law, ordinary language, institutional limits, and democratic accountability.

Baseball's Lessons for Law and Life

Alito is an unapologetic baseball fanatic, and his loyalties lie firmly with the Philadelphia Phillies. His childhood hero was Richie Ashburn. He played second base and shortstop in Little League, attended Phillies Phantasy Camp while serving on the Third Circuit, and was greeted at his Supreme Court welcome dinner by the Phillie Phanatic. His chambers contain an entire corner of baseball memorabilia.

Chapter Nine opens as a genial meditation on the national pastime but becomes a compact treatise on judging, institutional legitimacy, equality, cultural cohesion, and technological hubris. Alito begins with the concrete - a checked swing, a neighborhood play, an afternoon at Connie Mack Stadium - and works toward first principles.

The organizing device is Chief Justice Roberts's comparison of judges to umpires calling balls and strikes. Alito neither rejects the analogy nor reduces it to a slogan. Rules matter. Most cases, like most pitches, have a discernible answer. But hard cases require judgment informed by text, precedent, experience, and institutional discipline. The discussion of checked swings and balks exposes a truth often obscured by legal theory: discretion is not the absence of law. Properly exercised, it is judgment bounded by law.

Alito is especially good when he turns from mechanics to character. Judges must not "sell" their calls like theatrical umpires. Their duty is not to win applause or satisfy the loudest faction, but to do justice even when the heavens - or editorial pages - appear ready to fall.

Judge Leonard Garth's admonition that "it takes courage to be a good judge" supplies the chapter's moral center. In Alito's chambers, a photograph of the two bears the inscription Fiat justitia, ruat caelum: "Let justice be done though the heavens fall." Judicial independence is not a perk for judges; it is a safeguard for litigants and the public.

The discussion of Chase Utley's notorious slide and baseball's old "neighborhood play" sharpens the inquiry. What should an official do when settled practice departs from the written rule? Courts routinely confront precedents that have drifted from constitutional or statutory text. Alito offers no easy formula. Instead, he shows why choosing between fidelity to text and fidelity to precedent is consequential, disruptive, and unavoidable. A judge who pretends otherwise is hiding the ball.

The chapter then widens its focus. Baseball once supplied a common vocabulary across regions, classes, and political persuasions. Its diminished status becomes a metaphor for national fragmentation. Alito's point is not merely nostalgic. A self-governing people need shared institutions and experiences.

His account of baseball's integration carries the lesson further. Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, and others demonstrated that equality is both a moral imperative and a practical advantage. The Phillies' delay in signing black players was not only unjust; it was self-defeating. Merit ignored exacts a price.

Alito concludes with analytics and artificial intelligence. Baseball's statistical revolution produced more efficient strategies but a less attractive game: more strikeouts, fewer balls in play, less daring, and less joy. The analogy to law is sobering. A machine may predict outcomes, process authorities, and impose consistency. But efficiency is not the whole of justice. A legal system worthy of confidence must remain intelligible, accountable, and humane.

This is an argument that law, like baseball, depends on rules, judgment, courage, memory, and a willingness to preserve what is essential amid change. Beneath the chapter's easy cadence lies a serious charge: know the rules, honor the institution, judge people by their merits, and never confuse innovation with wisdom.

Religious Liberty and the American Republic

Chapter 10 is a history lesson, constitutional argument, and warning. Its central claim is unfashionable but straightforward: the American republic did not merely tolerate religion as an eccentric private preference. It recognized religious liberty as a preexisting right, gave it special constitutional protection, and understood religion as an ally of ordered liberty.

Alito begins with the American Catholic experience. From Maryland's founding as a refuge, through repeal of its Toleration Act, to accusations that Catholics owe their civic allegiance to Rome, he shows that anti-Catholicism is no historical curiosity. Paul Revere's "Mitred Minuet" and a modern cartoon depicting five Catholic justices in bishops' miters are separated by two centuries but animated by the same slander: that Catholic reasoning is foreign to constitutional government.

Modern cases give the chapter urgency. The contraceptive mandate, Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission (2018), Catholic Social Services, religious-school employment disputes, pandemic worship restrictions, and requests for spiritual advisers at executions expose a cultural collision. Alito identifies three accelerants: declining attachment to organized religion, the rise of a new moral code on contested social questions, and growing intolerance toward dissent.

His point is not that adherents of the new orthodoxy lack a right to their convictions. It is that constitutional peace becomes impossible when disagreement itself is treated as moral depravity.

Alito's strongest legal analysis focuses on the Free Exercise Clause. First, the Constitution singles out religion for special protection. Second, it safeguards religious exercise - not merely belief or worship, but conduct flowing from faith: teaching, evangelizing, serving the poor, observing holy days, following dietary rules, and wearing religious dress. Third, the right was historically robust enough to require exemptions from generally applicable laws, bounded by genuine threats to peace and safety. Founding-era accommodations for religious objectors - from oath requirements to militia service - make the point forcefully.

That history underwrites Alito's criticism of Employment Division v. Smith (1990), authored by Scalia, which reduced free exercise largely to a prohibition against deliberate discrimination. A regime that treats sacramental wine, kosher or halal slaughter, or religious head coverings exactly like secular conduct may be formally neutral while functionally hostile. Equal treatment is not always liberty.

The Establishment Clause discussion is equally important. Alito rejects the notion that the Constitution commands a sterile public square. The First Congress appointed chaplains while drafting the Bill of Rights; legislative prayer is therefore evidence of the constitutional design, not an embarrassing exception. The American settlement is not French laïcité. It prevents governmental establishment and control while preserving a public culture in which faith may speak, organize, educate, and serve.

The chapter's portraits of John Carroll, John England, Orestes Brownson, Tocqueville, and Washington show why American Catholics came to view the Constitution not as a grudging truce, but as fertile ground for faith. Limited government, federalism, property and speech protections, and respect for voluntary associations embody something akin to subsidiarity.

In America, separation of church and state could liberate the Church from political supervision rather than banish it from public life.

Skeptical readers may want more explanation of how courts should distinguish sincere claims from opportunistic ones, or how exemptions should operate when concrete third-party harms are established. Those questions do not defeat Alito's thesis, but they mark the difficult terrain on which it must be applied.

Chapter 10 nevertheless succeeds splendidly. The Religion Clauses are not museum pieces; they are articles of civic peace for a pluralistic nation. Their promise is not that Americans will cease disagreeing about ultimate truths, but that government will neither establish a creed nor punish citizens for exercising their faith within the traditional bounds of public order.

The Gettysburg Address

Chapter 15 is a compact meditation on why the Gettysburg Address endures. Alito places Lincoln's 272 words beside Edward Everett's two-hour oration and lets the contrast speak. Everett gave the crowd what 19th-century convention demanded: classical allusion, elaborate description, and grand rhetoric. Lincoln gave the nation biblical cadence, moral clarity, and a statement of national purpose.

Alito is especially strong on Lincoln's word choice. "Four score and seven" and "brought forth" were not ornamental flourishes. They drew upon the King James Bible, the common linguistic inheritance of Lincoln's audience. Lincoln achieved eloquence without displaying erudition. More importantly, those words framed America not as an accident of geography or power, but as a nation born to test whether self-government rooted in liberty and equality could survive.

The strongest section examines Lincoln's relationship to the Founding. Speaking amid the terrible consequences of a constitutional order that had tolerated slavery, Lincoln might have repudiated the Founders. He did not. He appealed to their principles while acknowledging their failures. Alito rightly describes this as conservative and progressive: conservative because Lincoln sought to preserve the best of the American inheritance, progressive because he summoned the nation to fulfill promises it had not kept.

Alito also emphasizes what Lincoln omitted. He did not blame the South, boast of battlefield progress, attack opponents, or make a conventional case for reelection. On ground consecrated by sacrifice, partisan rhetoric would have been too small. Lincoln transformed a cemetery dedication into a national recommitment.

This is not a historian's excavation, and Alito does not pretend otherwise. It is a judge's close reading of a foundational text. His aim is to recover the argument embedded in the Address: America is exceptional not because it is flawless, but because it remains dedicated to a proposition that judges every generation, including our own.

That theme captures the larger achievement of "So Ordered." Across subjects as varied as statutory interpretation, religious liberty, baseball, and Lincoln, Alito returns to a common idea: institutions endure only when citizens understand the principles beneath them and possess the courage to preserve those principles without resisting every necessary change.

The work of Gettysburg - preserving ordered liberty, widening opportunity, and securing equality under law - remains unfinished. It is still ours.

Samuel A. Alito Jr.'s "So Ordered" is not merely worth reading - it is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the Constitution, the Supreme Court, and the disciplined judicial temperament required to safeguard the rule of law.

Reprinted from Civitas Outlook, a publication of Civitas Institute

Charles "Cully" Stimson is a senior legal fellow at The Heritage Foundation and the acting director of its Legal Policy Center.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 20:15

Shane Gillis Exposes The Narcissism Of Modern Women With A Single Joke

Good comedy is generally one part sensationalism, one part truth and one part tragedy.  Often, the tragedy is in the lack of self awareness of the people being made fun of, and lets just say that modern western women are ripe for such ridicule.  No other group in history has enjoyed this level of unfettered privilege and protection.  So much protection, in fact, that you're not even allowed to make jokes about their bad behavior. 

The term "modern woman" largely refers to liberal women in first world countries, and the feminist idealism surrounding these women is truly bizarre.  The political left views them as untouchable pure spirits; the pinnacle of human evolution, the most benevolent and morally superior beings on the planet.  Everything they say is rooted in feelings, therefore everything they say is right.  Logic and reason are considered masculine evils that poison the waters and get in the way of the otherwise perfect feminine perspective. 

Of course, this is complete nonsense.  Liberal women are some of the most selfish, arrogant, petty, degenerate and violent creatures the human species has ever produced; they just express their violence through mob aggression and sabotage rather than direct action.  They prefer to get other people (or the government) to brutalize their enemies on their behalf (cancel culture). 

And the one thing that will make you an enemy of modern women faster that anything else is exposing their narcissism and laughing at their expense.  This is simply not done in a civilized and progressive society.

Comedian Shane Gillis is very familiar with this problem; he's been the target of feminist cancel culture more than a few times.  In 2026 the power of cancel culture is waning and comedy seems to be making a comeback, but that doesn't mean modern women are going to stop clinging to the power they once had.  They continue to look for ways to stifle and suppress honest speech, but all they have to fall back on right now is the old standbys of "shame" and their allies in the mainstream media.  

Gillis' most recent appearance on Saturday Night Live is a good example (a show he was fired from in 2019 because of old podcast clips in which he used naughty words to make fun of liberal candidates like Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders).  Gillis ripped on modern women going to public gyms in "whore" clothing that makes them look almost naked.  In the process he may have inadvertently touched on the most taboo subject for feminists, which is their demand that women's promiscuity and addiction to attention be socially normalized. 

Men are not allowed to judge anything a woman wears, nor anything she does to feed that addiction.

Shane Gillis’ monologue! https://t.co/ky6fVtWBx9

— Saturday Night Live (@nbcsnl) October 11, 2026

The world of cellar crowd comedy is typically no-holds-barred and is meant to be offensive in order to cut to the ugly truth of an issue.  This is the kind of comedy America needs once again.  The fact that Gillis has been invited back on a left-leaning production like SNL is a testament to the public demand for scathing humor.  It's undeniable - everyone is tired of Karens trying to ruin our fun.  

In response, liberal women (and their beta male counterparts) are raging across social media while their cohorts in the mainstream media publish endless attacks against Shane Gillis.  Some have tried to connect his jokes to the "Cornell 7" controversy, which is ironic because evidence shows that the Cornell rape claims are completely fabricated by a woman who was seeking to silence negative criticism for her bad behavior.

Half of these women complain that they wear normal clothing when they go to the gym.  Which means, the joke wasn't about them, but they're so oversensitive that they're angry about it anyway.

Other women simply made Gillis' point for him.  Put any of these chicks in a public place 20+ years ago and yes, people would assume they are prostitutes.  At the very least, they should not be mad when men stare because that's the real reason why they wear this clothing, they just don't want to admit it. 

The exercise in vanity that the gym has become for women is renowned, but it's merely an extension of the problem of social media and its ability to twist and destroy the female mind.  If men are addicted to porn, then women are addicted to attention, and social media has become their go-to source for that sweet, sweet narcissist nectar. 

Half the internet has been making jokes about modern women at the gym for the past few years - Specifically their habit of wearing the most revealing skin-tight clothing and waiting for men to glance in their direction so they can put those men on blast.  Meanwhile, these same women are simultaneously humble bragging about how men can't help but stare at them at the gym.  It's a bizarre ritual in which feminists act out their victimhood fantasies while also fulfilling their secret and desperate need for the male gaze.   

Bottom line, ladies?  If you look naked, men are going to stare at you, and there's nothing you can do about it.  If you throw a fit and pretend you are pure as the driven snow, then men are going to make fun of you, and there's nothing you can do about it.  You can't have your cake and eat it too when you put your cake out there for everyone to see.

As for the issue of comedy being akin to "assault", no one cares about your feelings.  No one cares if a joke offends you.  Those days are long gone.  You heavily abused your cancel culture powers when you had them and now society is turning on you.  Get ready, because the ridicule is going to get a lot worse, and you deserve it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 19:50

These Are The Top Races To Watch This Midterm

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Voters' decisions in the upcoming November midterms are set to reshape the balance of Washington and beyond. Democrats are seeking to capitalize on favorability ratings that fell below 40 percent for Republicans in the latest RealClearPolitics summary of polling.

That's expected for the sixth year of a president's tenure, called the "six-year itch," a time when the president's party has historically lost seats in the House. With the House already closely divided, observers expect Democrats to reclaim the lower chamber this year. However, Democrats' new margins in the House could also be slim, as a flurry of mid-decade redistricting has panned out with a slight edge for Republicans.

The Senate is seen as a more hotly contested battleground. Currently, Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats' 47. Just four pick-ups for Democrats - who are leading or holding their own in red states like Iowa and Ohio - would flip the balance of the upper chamber.

It comes also as several progressive and outsider Democrats - some of whom have open ties to the Democratic Socialists of America or democratic socialist ideas - have made headlines in races across the nation. Republicans have argued that Democrats are shifting too far left for the average American.

According to polling by Pew Research, Americans' top concern at present is the economy, and by a wide margin. That poll found that economic issues were the driving political force this cycle for 29 percent of Americans. Data centers are also a top priority for voters as the primary season comes to a close.

Here are the top elections and candidates to watch this cycle.

Senate

Georgia

In Georgia, Republicans are again seeking to flip one of the state's two Senate seats, which have been held by Democrats since 2020.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), elected to his first six-year term in a January 2021 runoff, is up for reelection. Republicans selected Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) to take him on.

Polls taken in the state have shown that Ossoff is favored to hold the seat, leading Collins in almost every poll so far.

In 2024, President Donald Trump won Georgia by around 2.2 percentage points - Republicans' lowest margins of victory in the Peach State since 1996.

Maine

In Maine, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-Me.) will take on former state Senate President Troy Jackson for one of the year's top Senate fights.

Collins, a long-serving political juggernaut in the state, ran unopposed for her party's nomination.

Maine Democrats selected Jackson on July 25 as their party's nominee to challenge Collins, taking over after the previous nominee, Graham Platner dropped out of the race.

Platner, a progressive, was one of the first candidates to capture the populist mood of the national Democratic base, building a campaign that championed pro-working class policies. But after accusations of sexual and other misconduct emerged, which he denied, Platner ultimately departed the race.

However, Collins still faces a difficult fight to hold the seat, with polls showing she's running behind either Democrat in most polls conducted since March.

Michigan

Michigan's Senate race features a showdown between an establishment Republican and a progressive outsider after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters declined to run for reelection.

Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, won his primary over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) by a single point. He faced more than $60 million in outside spending in support of Stevens.

El-Sayed will take on former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in the race.

Currently, he leads in the polls by around 4 percent.

Analysts say El-Sayed's campaign reflects the outsider approach and populist energy seen among democratic socialist-aligned candidates.

Between 2017 and 2020, El-Sayed spoke at several events hosted by the Democratic Socialists of America.

But today, El-Sayed says he's distanced himself from the group - and the democratic socialist label - describing himself as a capitalist.

Rogers ran unopposed during his primary with Trump's endorsement.

Alaska

While Alaska is Republican-leaning, the Senate race between incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is proving competitive.

Sullivan has served in the Senate since 2015, while Peltola served in the U.S. House of Representatives between September 2022 and January 2025.

Because Peltola has shown viability in statewide elections in the single-district state, the Last Frontier is a top target for Democrats this year.

The ranked-choice race is complicated by the presence of a candidate on the ballot who shares a name with incumbent senator Dan Sullivan. The challenger, also named Dan Sullivan and also Republican, has insisted he's serious about running, despite allegations that he's just trying to divert votes away from the senator.

In the most recent poll taken of the race, Sullivan leads with 47 percent to Peltola's 46 percent. However, some other polls show Peltola in the lead.

Iowa

Iowa is also home to a competitive Senate race this year, this time between GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, after Sen. Joni Ernst declined to run for a third term.

Like others, the state had been seen as reliably Republican over the past several cycles, since President Donald Trump first won the state back in 2016 with a nearly 10-point victory.

However, it was long known as a quintessential swing state.

As recently as 2012, the state drew intense national attention as a battleground. Now, some polls are showing that Iowa is in for a tighter Senate race this year, a pattern also being seen in neighboring Ohio.

Hinson has led in five polls conducted of the race since April, while Turek has led in four.

Cook Political Report recently moved the race from lean Republican to a toss up, reflecting the closely split nature of the race.

Ohio

Ohio is another key Senate battleground this year, with former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown set for a November fight against incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted.

Brown was unseated just two years ago in the 2024 election, losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) by around 3.6 percent - far outrunning Trump and Vice President JD Vance's approximately 11 point victory that year.

Without the benefit of the "Trump effect," describing Trump's impact on close down-ballot races during presidential election years, Husted faces a race against a politically powerful opponent with deep name recognition in the state.

Husted was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to fill the seat held by Vance. The winner will serve out the final two years of Vance's term.

Texas

In Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is set for a heated November matchup against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in one of the cycle's most-watched races.

Paxton won a contentious primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) with the assistance of a strong endorsement from Trump.

The expensive and personal primary race centered heavily on Paxton's past controversies, including his impeachment for alleged bribery, whistleblower retaliation, and abuse of office.

In 2023, Paxton was impeached by the Texas House on 20 articles in a 121 - 23 vote and subsequently acquitted on all counts.

Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, has built a campaign based around his Christian values as a seminarian and on his track record as a state legislator.

Talarico has led in 15 out of the 16 polls of the race conducted since July, with Paxton leading in a poll conducted by Emerson College.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is set to take on former Gov. Roy Cooper in one of the 2026 cycle's most crucial matchups.

The two are fighting to replace outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) - an administration critic who announced last year that he wouldn't seek reelection - after winning their nominations in March.

Trump has loomed over the election in the state.

Whatley, appointed to lead the Republican National Committee on Trump's recommendation, has emphasized his loyalty, while Cooper has accused Whatley of being "anointed" by Trump.

While Republicans have held an advantage in the battleground state for nearly two decades, polls have shown that Cooper favored this cycle, leading in every poll of the race conducted since July 2025. In a sign that Republicans see the race as a potential lost cause, the Senate Leadership Fund has withdrawn funding from North Carolina, instead directing it to an unexpectedly close Senate race in Kansas. [delete]

Kansas

In Kansas, polls show Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) locked in a dead heat with pastor Adam Hamilton.

Hamilton is a United Methodist megachurch pastor and author, co-founding the Kansas-based Church of the Resurrection. Marshall is a freshman senator and an obstetrician-gynecologist, first elected in 2020 after beating out a crowded primary field.

This year, Marshall has been the subject of controversy in the state after The New York Times reported that he had sued hundreds of his former patients, leading to 81 arrests due to missed court dates.

While Marshall led in the first poll taken of the race released on Sept. 11, every poll since has shown him either tied with or running behind Hamilton.

In the 2020 election, which he won by around 12 percent, there were some warning signs: Shawnee County and Riley County backed the Democrat for the first time since the 1970s, while Johnson County voted Democratic for the first time in the state's history. President Joe Biden flipped the same counties in that election.

The race was originally rated lean Republican by Cook Political Report, which now rates it to be a toss-up.

Nebraska

In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn - who made national news following his close fight against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024 - is making another bid for the office.

In that race, Osborn lost to Fischer by around 7 points after Democrats declined to make a nomination in the race. This year, Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank has dropped out of the race to make way for Osborn, similar to the situation seen in 2024.

This year, he's running against the incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), and polls have shown a tight race. In surveys taken in September and October, Ricketts led by 4 and 5 points, respectively. Osborn led by around the same margin in polls taken in May and September.

Republicans maintain a structural advantage in the state. Although 53 percent of registered Nebraska voters live in rural areas, the urban and suburban population in Nebraska is reliably Republican - but has potential to swing in line with an anti-Republican national environment.

Omaha, Nebraska, is a crucial decision-maker in the race, as its population has trended away from Republicans in recent cycles, voting for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

House Texas 34th Congressional District

In Texas' 34th Congressional District, representing one of the Lone Star State's most evenly-split seats, incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) is seeking to hold off a challenge from Republicans, who see the House district as a potential pickup opportunity.

The seat was among those redrawn by the state legislature last year at the request of the White House.

In the primary, Trump-endorsed candidate Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor, defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) for the Republican nod.

In 2022, Mayra Flores made headlines with a special election win in District 34 before its map was redrawn. But after she lost to Gonzalez in 2022 and again in 2024, the party is making a fresh bid with Eric Flores.

The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.

North Carolina 1st Congressional District

In North Carolina's First Congressional District, Republicans selected retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout as their nominee on March 3, setting up a November rematch against incumbent Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.).

The district was altered to favor Republicans, although analysts still consider the seat competitive.

Davis won a second term in 2024 by less than 2 percent, becoming one of 13 House Democrats to win elections in districts won by Trump. He's been critical of the redrawing of his district, which will make reelection a tougher challenge this cycle.

Ohio House Races

Ohio will also host a handful of key House races that will affect control of Congress next year.

In the 7th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Max Miller faces a tough path to reelection amid abuse allegations by his ex-wife Emily Moreno, which Miller has denied.

Miller's Democratic opponent, union ironworker and Brook Park city councilman Brian Poindexter, has been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Over in the 9th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur hopes to hold onto her seat in a rematch from 2024 with former state Rep. Derek Merrin.

Kaptur has been in Congress since 1983, while Merrin is a former member of the Ohio House of Representatives and has touted his record in the state legislature.

Nebraska 2nd Congressional District

Democrat Denise Powell will face Republican nominee Brinker Harding in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District as both parties continue to fight for the seat that's come to be known as Nebraska's "Blue Dot."

Since 2008, the Omaha-based, urban district has swung between the two parties, but has increasingly favored Democrats in recent cycles.

The seat is currently represented by Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who had managed to keep the trust of the district - which backed Harris in 2024 - even as it has otherwise swung toward Democrats.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning toward Democrats. Powell would be Nebraska's only Democrat in Congress if she wins.

Pennsylvania House Races

Several critical races are being held in Pennsylvania, one of the most narrowly-split national battlegrounds.

This year, Pennsylvania voters - who backed Trump in 2024 - are heavily driven by economic concerns.

According to one recent poll by Franklin & Marshall College, only 14 percent of voters in the state say they're better off financially than they were a year ago. Nearly half - 44 percent - say they're worse off.

This year, the most closely-contested races in the state have Republicans playing defense.

Pennsylvania's Seventh Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.

The district is a top target for Democrats. Firefighter union leader Bob Brooks, running with the endorsement of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, is their nominee.

Pennsylvania's Eighth Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.

Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti will take him on in the swing district.

Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District is represented by Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who has been in Congress for nearly 14 years.

Former news anchor Janelle Stelson, a Democrat, is running again for the seat after a 2024 loss.

Iowa 1st Congressional District

Several key House races will also be held in Iowa.

In the 1st Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is defending her seat against former Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan.

The seat featured one of the closest House race of 2024, with Miller-Meeks ultimately defeating the Democrat by just 799 votes despite Trump's 13-point win in the statewide presidential contest.

Iowa 3rd Congressional District

In the 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Zach Nunn looks to be reelected to a third term.

He's facing Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.

Nunn led by 6 points in the only independent public poll of the race so far, conducted in March.

Virginia 2nd Congressional District

Incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is seeking a third term, but faces a tougher fight this year with former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, who Kiggans defeated in 2022.

The Virginia Beach-based district is known for a strong military and veteran presence and a moderate approach to politics.

In 2024, Kiggans won reelection by 3.8 percentage points, facing a lesser known challenger at the time.

Washington 3rd Congressional District

Encompassing the southernmost portion of Western Washington state, the Third Congressional District is represented by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).

Washington state Senate GOP leader John Braun is aiming to unseat the moderate Democrat this year.

The seat has historically favored Republicans, although Gluesenkamp Perez's centrist brand has been popular in the region.

Trump won the district by 3 percentage points in 2024.

Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District

Encompassing western and southwestern Wisconsin, this district has been represented by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) since 2023.

Democrats selected small business owner and waitress Rebecca Cooke as their nominee.

Trump won the district by 8 percentage points in 2024, but the Cook Political Report rates the match a pure toss-up.

California House Races

California will also host several key House races this year.

California's 13th Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Adam Gray (D-Calif.), who was first elected to the seat in 2024.

He's facing Kevin Lincoln II, the former mayor of Stockton, California.

California's 22nd Congressional District is represented by Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who has been in Congress for a decade.

Randy Villegas, a teacher and business owner, is Democrats' pick.

Finally, retiring Rep. Darrell Issa's (R-Calif.) 48th Congressional District seat is a critical target for Democrats.

The district was redrawn as part of California's new congressional map that came about in response to redistricting in Texas.

San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, a Democrat, is facing San Diego County Board of Supervisors member Jim Desmond, a Republican, in the seat rated "Lean Democrat" by Cook Political Report.

South Carolina 1st Congressional District

In South Carolina's only swing district, Democrats are hoping for a repeat of 2018, when former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) pulled off an upset win in the Republican-leaning, Charleston-based district.

This year, incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) won't be on the ballot after she made an unsuccessful bid for South Carolina governor.

Instead, Democrat Nancy Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral, will take on Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt. Both candidates won their nominations in runoff primary elections.

Maine 2nd Congressional District

In Maine's Republican-leaning second congressional district, the race to replace outgoing Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is a top priority for both parties.

Maine state auditor Matthew Dunlap will face former Gov. Paul LePage, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Republicans hope LePage will be able to flip the seat, which houses a district that voted for Trump in 2024.

New York House Races

Key House races are also set to be held in New York.

In the Long Island-based 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) faces former state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri Jr., a Republican.

Suozzi has decried Trump tariffs and cuts to Medicaid.

In the 4th Congressional District, also located on Long Island, incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen looks to be reelected to a second term as she faces Republican Jeanine Driscoll.

In the 17th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley, a special ops combat veteran.

The race for Lawler's seat is a top priority for Democrats.

In the 19th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley is running for a second term, while Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker looks to unseat him.

New Jersey 7th Congressional District

In the 7th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is seeking a third term, while Democrat Rebecca Bennett looks to unseat him.

Kean, who has represented the district since 2023, came under fire for his absence from Congress between March and June. Upon his return, he said he was dealing with a diagnosis of depression for which he was hospitalized. He has missed more than 100 House votes.

Arizona House Races

Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is retiring after serving in Congress since 2011, leaving his highly competitive 1st Congressional District seat open.

Democrats ultimately nominated former Arizona House of Representatives Rep. Amish Shah, while Republicans nominated former NFL kicker and analyst Jay Feely.

Arizona's 6th Congressional District, meanwhile, is represented by Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), who has been in Congress since 2023.

Democrats nominated JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran whose post-military career has centered around providing assistance and outreach services to veterans.

Florida 25th Congressional District

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) won renomination to his 25th Congressional District U.S. House seat on Aug. 18, defeating Oliver Larkin, a union organizer endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America.

Moskowitz currently represents the 23rd District. He ran in the 25th after Florida's Republican-led legislature redrew the state's congressional map this year at the call of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer won the Republican nomination.

The Cook Political Report rates the match a toss-up.

Michigan 7th Congressional District

Incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces progressive activist and Democrat William Lawrence.

Barrett was first elected in 2024.

He has broken with his party over the war in Iran as he has joined a few other Republicans along with Democrats in favor of war powers resolutions related to the conflict.

Gubernatorial Georgia

Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms looks to flip this seat to the Democrats, while billionaire Republican Rick Jackson seeks to keep it in Republican hands.

Bottoms' platform consists of lowering healthcare costs and building more housing.

Jackson is running on a promise to freeze property taxes and to reduce and then eliminate the state income tax.

The winner will succeed Gov. Brian Kemp, who was ineligible to run for reelection.

Iowa

Republicans are looking to hold this seat with farmer and businessman Zach Lahn, while Democrats look to win it back for the first time since 2011.

Lahn is a proponent of the Make America Healthy Again movement, running on a promise to fight what he said is a "cancer crisis" in Iowa.

The Democratic nominee, Rob Sand, is the state auditor.

Sand has led in every poll since June.

The winner will succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds, who declined to run for a third term.

Nevada

Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is up for reelection.

He has touted his record as governor during the campaign, referencing his work to expand state savings, cut regulation, and boost employment.

Lombardo's Democratic opponent is Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford. He has promised affordable housing and addressing predatory practices by healthcare agents.

Lombardo, a former sheriff, was first elected in 2022.

Ohio

Just as Ohio has drawn national attention to its House and Senate races, observers are also paying attention to its gubernatorial race this year.

Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Democrat Amy Acton, the state's former health director.

Earlier this year, the Cook Political Report shifted the race's rating to toss up, citing Acton's polling leads and ties over the race despite Ramaswamy's financial edge.

Arizona

In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs faces reelection, fielding a challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.).

National issues - affordability, the impacts of Republican party-line cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, and data centers - are factors in the race.

Meanwhile, local issues related to water access for Phoenix - a rapidly growing metropolis situated in the desert - have also been key factors in the race.

Hobbs has led Biggs by nearly a double-digit margin in every poll of the race conducted in 2026.

Michigan

Republicans have been looking to take back the Michigan gubernatorial mansion since they lost the seat in 2019.

The Republican nominee, Rep. John James (R-Mich.), has campaigned on implementing a parental bill of rights and enabling school choice.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the Democrat facing James, running on a promise to increase the affordability of housing and other goods.

The winner will succeed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is term-limited.

Kansas

Republican Ty Masterson will face Democrat Cindy Holscher in the closely-watched fight for the governor's mansion of Kansas.

Masterson, who was endorsed by Trump, won the crowded Republican primary on Aug. 4 in a landslide. Holscher, a state senator, came out on top in the Democratic race.

Masterson, who has been the president of the Kansas Senate since 2021, says he wants to cut taxes, bring jobs to Kansas, and raise pay for teachers, while Holscher is running on a platform to lower the cost of living.

Though Kansas is known as a red state at the federal level, contests have been closer on the state level. The mansion is currently occupied by Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 19:25

Gymnastics Coach Who Filmed Minors In Bathroom Gets Maximum 90 Years

A federal judge in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, sentenced former youth gymnastics coach Sean Gardner, 39, to the maximum 90 years in prison on Oct. 14. U.S. District Judge Kristi Johnson gave him 30 years on each of three federal counts of producing child sexual abuse material, a term that amounts to life.

Gardner pleaded guilty to hiding a camera in a bathroom at a gym in Purvis, Mississippi, between December 2017 and April 2018. The Justice Department says he secretly videotaped gymnasts in the restroom of the gym where he coached. He had been indicted on 10 counts in August 2025, and a superseding indictment in April added two more. He pleaded to counts 1, 3 and 7, and KCRG reported the plea in May.

Investigators say the recordings show at least 10 minors undressing or naked, and that they turned up only years later, when police were looking into abuse allegations against him in Iowa. An FBI affidavit cited by CBS News says agents seized about 50 videos and 400 photos from his residence. West Des Moines police searched his apartment in May 2025, and the FBI arrested him that August.

Gardner has not been charged over the Iowa allegations. Police told CBS they will decide how to proceed once the federal case ends. Court records cited by NBC News say at least three young gymnasts at Chow's Gymnastics and Dance Institute, the West Des Moines gym where he worked from 2018 to 2022, were sexually abused. Those are allegations, and nothing in the Iowa records has been tested in court.

Sean Gardner was just sentenced to 90 years in prison for secretly recording young gymnasts undressing in a locker room at a gym in Mississippi. Gardner also had coached at Chow's Gym, owned by Liang "Chow" Qiao (who coached Shawn Johnson to Olympic gold). Reportedly Chow knew of abuse allegations and failed to report them for years. Former USA Gymnastics leader Li Li Leung was just awarded the 2026 Torch Award from the USOPC for her leadership and impact on the Olympic movements. Why is gymnastics STILL such a grotesque shit show of abuse??? And seriously, would you let this guy anywhere near your daughter?

— Jennifer Sey (@JenniferSey) October 15, 2026

Two lawsuits filed Dec. 1 in Polk County, Iowa, say USA Gymnastics and SafeSport were told about Gardner's behavior in December 2017. The plaintiffs are two former gymnasts. According to AP's account of the filings, the suits allege the organizations were alerted to "inappropriate and abusive behaviors" at the Mississippi gym, did not investigate, did not revoke his credentials and did not go to police. They say that inaction let him land the Iowa job. The suits also name Chow's and its founder, Liang "Chow" Qiao, and they remain pending.

SafeSport disputes the timeline. It told AP it first heard of sexual misconduct allegations against Gardner in 2022 and acted swiftly from there. It says USA Gymnastics told it in January 2018 only that an affiliated gym had resolved a report involving him, and it did not dig further because the report was not about sexual misconduct and lacked detail. CBS reports that Gardner's boss in Mississippi said in an email that she told USA Gymnastics about his "grooming behavior" in January 2018. AP reported that USA Gymnastics and SafeSport declined to comment on the litigation, and that Gardner's lawyer did not respond.

What happened after 2022 is harder to square with its account. It suspended Gardner provisionally in July 2022, four months after a girl first reported him to the center, and Chow's fired him. Yet AP reported he took a hospital job in May 2024 while still under suspension. Three people familiar with the case told AP that Gardner was willing in early 2025 to accept a lifetime coaching ban, and that SafeSport never finalized it. SafeSport said it took swift action and that temporary and permanent bans carry the same restrictions.

SafeSport's own investigation found that Chow and other coaches at the Iowa gym knew of the allegations and did not report them as policy requires, per OutKick. Police records say a detective asked SafeSport to encourage families to file criminal complaints, but only one parent contacted police in 2022, and that investigation stalled. Chow's and Qiao did not respond to AP when Gardner was arrested.

Gardner's career ran through three states. The FBI says he coached at Athletes in Motion in Prairieville, Louisiana, from 2004 to 2014, at Jump'In Gymnastics in Purvis from 2014 to 2018, and at Chow's from 2018 to 2022. Agents opened a website for possible victims after the arrest, saying he mainly targeted children at gyms in all three states.

His plea did not waive his right to appeal. The civil suits against him, USA Gymnastics, SafeSport and the Iowa gym are still pending. The case revives questions about SafeSport that surfaced after the Larry Nassar scandal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 19:00

Whitmer Declares Energy Emergency, Eases Diesel Rules For Farmers

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared a state of energy emergency on Oct. 12, citing disruptions to global oil markets from the war in Iran and what she said was the nation's largest year-over-year rise in average gasoline prices in Michigan.

The order allows certain farm and logging vehicles to use dyed diesel on public roads.

In her emergency order, Whitmer said that Michigan's farmers and loggers are facing record-high diesel prices, slim margins, and sharp market swings, with some costs passed on to consumers.

"These industries already purchase and maintain substantial supplies of dyed diesel for off-road equipment. Therefore, granting eligible highway-licensed vehicles temporary access to this fuel would provide immediate relief," she wrote.

Her order suspends specific provisions of the Motor Fuel Tax Act that normally bar such use of dyed diesel.

Global Supply Shrinks

Armed conflicts have tightened crude oil supply, driving up prices for both diesel and regular gasoline.

The hostilities with Iran, which began at the end of February, have slowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the point through which about 25 percent of the seaborne oil trade used to flow, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Shortly after the conflict started in March, diesel prices saw their biggest one-week jump on record.

Global diesel markets could remain tight well into next year, with resulting high prices driving inflation and hurting economic growth, as conflicts curb output from the Middle East and Russia, the agency said on Oct. 14.

Combined diesel export losses from the Middle East and Russia totaled 1.3 million barrels per day in September, the agency said.

Pump Prices Bite

The average pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States was $4.33 per gallon as of Oct. 14, according to the American Automobile Association. Diesel is much higher, at about $6.30 per gallon, reaching a record high of $6.52 at the end of last month.

The emergency order ends when the governor determines the shortage no longer exists, but no later than Dec. 31. Willful interference with the order is a misdemeanor.

Whitmer noted she had issued an earlier order in April that suspended Reid vapor-pressure requirements in gasoline and temporarily lowered consumer prices. She wrote that the federal government created the problem and can fix it.

Whitmer, a Democrat, is term-limited. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, and Rep. John James (R-Mich.) clashed over tariffs on Canada, the war in Iran, and Medicaid in the first debate of the race for Michigan governor on Oct. 6.

Benson blamed the war in Iran for rising fuel prices and said James had voted six times to support the war. Both candidates said they would support suspending Michigan's gas tax.

Michigan has faced prior fuel-supply disruptions. In 2022, Whitmer declared an energy emergency after a refinery fire in Indiana, temporarily easing certain transport and fuel rules.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 18:40

Iowa Attorney General Sues Camera Company Over Ties To China

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird has filed a lawsuit against home security camera maker Lorex, alleging the company used deceptive business practices to mislead consumers about potential security risks tied to its products.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird speaks during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis., on July 16, 2024. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

The complaint, announced by Bird's office on Oct. 9, alleges that Lorex "hid material facts" from consumers and that information collected by its products "is susceptible to being accessed by China and the Chinese Communist Party."

Iowa is not the first state to take legal action against Lorex. Nebraska, Texas, and Missouri have also filed similar lawsuits against the company.

At the center of the lawsuit is Lorex's connection to Zhejiang Dahua Technology, a Chinese surveillance equipment maker on the Pentagon's blacklist of Chinese military companies.

Although Lorex's ownership has since changed from Dahua to Taiwan-based Skywatch, the complaint alleges that the company "still markets and sells" some camera products "made using components and technology" from Dahua.

"The fact that a Chinese-backed company can spy on Iowa kids and families through baby cameras is creepy and scary," Bird said in a statement on Oct. 9.

"Iowa parents want to be sure their baby is getting a good, safe night's sleep. They shouldn't have to worry that the Chinese government can also view that footage.

"Enough is enough - China needs to stay out of our homes. Companies like Lorex that help China access Iowans private data will be held accountable to Iowa law."

The complaint cites China's 2017 National Intelligence Law, which it says raises concerns that Beijing could access data collected by Lorex cameras.

A provision requires organizations and citizens to "support, assist, and cooperate with national intelligence efforts."

The law "forms the baseline of the modern data collection regime," according to the complaint, which cites the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

It also creates "a legal obligation for those entities to turn over data collected abroad and domestically" to Beijing, the complaint states.

The complaint also warns that China's 2021 Regulations on the Management of Security Vulnerabilities in Network Products could let Chinese authorities learn of security flaws before companies can issue patches to fix them.

The 2017 law and 2021 regulations call into question Lorex's assurances that its cameras are "private by design" and that it takes "every step possible to ensure your recordings remain private," the complaint says.

Another practice the lawsuit accuses Lorex of using to mislead consumers is a disclaimer on its frequently asked questions page.

In a question addressing the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Lorex states that its products "are designed for consumer and business use only and not for U.S. federal governments, federally-funded projects or contractors subject to NDAA."

While Lorex's statement acknowledges that the products are restricted from federal use, the complaint argues that the company's disclaimer "reflects Lorex's actual knowledge of the security concerns associated with its products but provides no explanation of why the disclaimer is significant."

The complaint states, "A consumer would interpret the disclaimer as stating that any concern is limited to federal government use, and therefore that Lorex cameras are safe for household and business use. The disclaimer is therefore misleading."

Bird is seeking reimbursement, civil penalties, and fees from Lorex for violating Iowa's Consumer Fraud Act, according to her office.

The Epoch Times contacted Lorex for comments and didn't receive a response by publication time.

Bird has filed two other China-related lawsuits recently.

On Oct. 7, Bird announced a lawsuit against video surveillance company ADI Global Distribution, alleging it concealed that its cameras were manufactured in China by Hikvision and Dahua.

Hikvision is also on the Pentagon's blacklist of Chinese military companies.

A day earlier, Bird announced a lawsuit against TP-Link Systems, alleging the router maker concealed ongoing ties to China and misled consumers about the security of its products.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 18:00

BlackRock's Record Asset Holdings Are Half The Size Of US Economy

BlackRock ended the third quarter with $15.49 trillion in assets under management, a record, after $205 billion of net client inflows, according to its earnings release filed with the SEC on Oct. 14.

A man walks into the BlackRock offices in New York City on Jan. 16, 2014. Andrew Burton/Getty Images

GAAP earnings came to $10.57 a share, and as-adjusted earnings to $15.93. Revenue rose 19 percent to $7.75 billion, and the company said it has raised $68 billion in private markets over the last twelve months. Its AI Infrastructure Partnership made its first deployment during the quarter.

Chairman and CEO Larry Fink said clients "entrusted us with $205 billion of net inflows this quarter, and $869 billion over the last year." He added: "We're entering our seasonally strongest fourth quarter with accelerating momentum."

As the Epoch Times notes further, the company drew almost $135 billion in net new flows into its flagship iShares exchange-traded funds, also known as ETFs.

It also repurchased $550 million of its shares during the quarter, delivering stronger value to current shareholders.

"Market fundamentals are strong and well supported, with higher margins and earnings momentum catalyzed by new technology," CEO Larry Fink said in a statement.

Looking ahead to the final three months of 2026, Fink noted that BlackRock has plenty of momentum and a broad pipeline of opportunities across multiple business segments, including private markets and retirement funds.

BlackRock popped as much as 5 percent following the earnings data but erased its gains as the midweek session progressed.

Private Credit Improvements

The private credit industry has been under tremendous strain this year, reflecting the so-called "SaaSpocalypse" and increasing concerns surrounding lenders' exposure to software companies.

This was observed in the wave of redemption requests.

But BlackRock's push into private credit markets does not seem affected by the sector's widespread pressures.

In a call with analysts, CFO Martin Small suggested that investment demand for private credit has been solid.

Net inflows into its private credit funds rose by $5 billion from the previous quarter, according to the earnings report.

"We think there's a much larger opportunity that's more durable in delivering private high-grade private credit in for debt across our platform and just deepening our client relationships over time," Small said.

Additionally, BlackRock's client redemptions, which have been in focus for the broader industry since the start of 2026, have eased modestly.

Redemption requests for its Corporate Lending Fund fell to about 11.5 percent of shares in the latest quarter, down from 13.3 percent in the second quarter.

But while private credit stress appears to be dissipating, Moody's warned the situation could be worse than reported default rates suggest.

"Asset quality risks are mounting among weaker middle market borrowers in the US private credit market as higher-for-longer interest rates, refinancing challenges, redemption pressures and persistent concerns over transparency weigh on performance," the firm said in an Oct. 14 report.

Earnings Season So Far

Third-quarter earnings season started on Oct. 13, beginning with some of the big banks.

Tuesday's results were mixed but not concerning, says Tom Essaye, president and co-founder of The Sevens Research Report.

"The results of those earnings were mixed, but none of the reports provided the type of surprise that would have impacted the broader market and the S&P 500," Essaye said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Oct. 14 was better, with Morgan Stanley, Progressive, and State Street beating Wall Street expectations on earnings per share.

Blackstone will be the next major investment manager to release its performance from the past three months.

The consensus estimate points to $1.46 in earnings per share and $3.65 billion in revenue, according to Trading Economics.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 17:40

Guilfoyle Hit With Defamation Suit By Donor Behind $100,000 Amex Allegations

Trump donor Eric Deters has sued Kimberly Guilfoyle and her lawyers for defamation, escalating the dispute over an alleged $100,000 American Express payment request that preceded her departure as U.S. ambassador to Greece. Deters announced in a Thursday Facebook post that he filed in Kentucky state court. The defendants include attorneys Jesse Binnall and David M. Schwartz, CBS News reported.

Deters had previewed the lawsuit in a CNN interview Monday, accusing Guilfoyle's camp of falsely dismissing his text messages as fabricated, branding him a blackmailer and claiming he owed her money.

The filing comes two days after Guilfoyle resigned at the White House's request amid multiple reports of alleged misconduct. She has denied wrongdoing and pledged to defend her reputation. Her attorneys maintain that the financial dispute concerns unpaid compensation, not the sale of political access.

The $100,000 Request

The controversy erupted after The Wall Street Journal reported that Guilfoyle sought a $100,000 payment directly to American Express while preparing for her Senate confirmation hearing last year. The newspaper reviewed Signal messages in which she discussed helping Deters obtain administration attention for legal and tax matters.

"It won't show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express," she wrote, according to the Journal.

Deters was not simply an outside observer complaining about Washington's influence business. In a Tuesday CNN interview, he said he had paid Guilfoyle $300,000 for speaking appearances and offered her $1 million if she helped with his medical-malpractice litigation, payable when the case settled.

He said he wanted help securing the extradition of a doctor accused of performing unnecessary spinal surgeries, along with an investigation into how the doctor left the country. Deters said Guilfoyle failed to deliver the assistance he sought.

Guilfoyle's Defense: Unpaid Fees, Not Paid Access

Guilfoyle's lawyers tell a substantially different story: Deters was a delinquent client, and she was trying to collect money for work already performed.

In an October 10 statement, Binnall and Schwartz said Deters still owed approximately $150,000 for speeches and consulting services. They cited a May 20, 2024 agreement with a third-party booking agency providing for a $200,000 fee, alongside additional speaking and consulting arrangements.

The attorneys said Deters made partial payments but failed to settle the balance, and that Guilfoyle sought to resolve outstanding payments before entering government service.

"Asking a client to pay for work already done is not corruption. It is the opposite of corruption."

They also said Guilfoyle refused Deters' separate $1 million offer and indicated they were evaluating legal remedies to collect the alleged debt.

Deters disputes that explanation. In the Tuesday interview, he denied owing Guilfoyle money and said he had been willing to describe the arrangement on paper as payment for prior consulting, while insisting that description was false.

That leaves a consequential dispute over what the money was actually for. The contracts, payment records and communications matter more than either side's public characterization. The defamation lawsuit does not, by itself, establish that the alleged pay-for-access arrangement occurred.

Deters Eyes Trump's Inner Circle

Deters is also presenting the lawsuit as a way to pull people close to the president into the dispute.

In his announcement, he said he intends to pursue depositions of Guilfoyle and her former fiance, Donald Trump Jr., and seek administration documents through subpoenas. Those are his stated intentions, not confirmation that the testimony has been scheduled or ordered.

Then came the promised bombshell. According to Mediaite, Deters said he would release a 16-minute telephone recording by the end of Friday, October 16, suggesting it could have repercussions far beyond the former ambassador. 

"This might just bring down the entire Trump administration," he said. He also suggested the recording could damage the political prospects of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while saying he still supports the administration's policies.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 17:20

NOAA Winter Outlook: Record El Niño Points To Wetter South, Warmer North

El Niño is a warm patch of water in the equatorial Pacific that shows up every few years and confuses everyone as to what it's actually going to do. When the eastern Pacific runs hot, the jet stream drops south and drags the storm track with it. That is why a water temperature reading off South America decides whether California floods and the Gulf gets hammered.

NOAA's winter outlook, released this morning, favors a wetter than average December through February across the southern U.S., from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard, with warmer than average temperatures across the North.

It expects drought to improve or end in the Southwest, the southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast, and to develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. "As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South," said National Weather Service director Ken Graham, who warned that "too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides." Like every NOAA seasonal outlook, it gives the odds of a wetter or drier, warmer or colder season, and it doesn't project snowfall.

Source: NOAA

The Climate Prediction Center's three-month outlook for January through March, also issued today, carries the same pattern into spring: wetter than average from California and the Southwest across the Gulf Coast and up the East Coast, with the strongest odds in Southern California and along the Florida and Georgia coast, and warmer than average across the northern tier from the Pacific Northwest to New England. The Southeast stays near normal on temperature, and parts of Montana and Michigan lean dry.

This year's reading is off the charts. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said Oct 8 that El Niño is still strengthening, with better than 83% odds of a strong to very strong event through early next year, and an 83% chance that it tops every El Niño on record back to 1950 over October to December. On Sept 21 the daily surface temperature where El Niño forms ran more than 3°C above normal, a daily record, months before the expected peak.

What A Strong El Niño Does To An American Winter

For this winter, NOAA favors warmer than average temperatures for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and much of the East, near normal temperatures for parts of the Southeast including Florida, and drier than average conditions for parts of the northern Mountain West. That fits its review of a century of events, which found the most reliable signal is a wet Gulf Coast: wetter than average from Texas to Florida in more than 80% of El Niño winters. California is the swing state; in the two strongest events on record, 1982-83 and 1997-98, it got much more rain than usual. The Ohio Valley trends dry, and the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies often run mild. In NOAA's words, "the stronger the episode, the more reliable the signal."

NOAA's post-mortem of the 1997-98 winter counts four weeks of nearly continuous storms in California, 35 counties declared federal disaster areas and more than $550 million in damage. Santa Barbara took 21.74 inches of rain in February alone. In Florida, a two-day tornado outbreak killed 42 people. Nationwide the winter claimed 56 lives, and a Northeast ice storm left power lines down for weeks.

Forecasters are already split on where this one hits hardest. Meteorologist Ryan Hall is watching a corridor from Oklahoma and Arkansas through Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia and the Carolinas: "somebody in this corridor is going to get a big snowstorm or a big ice storm this winter." AccuWeather's Paul Pastelok expects floods to matter more: "It may be more about rainfall this year."

The National Weather Service is changing its own warnings for this winter. Starting this season, select blizzard and ice storm warnings will carry "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording, reserved for high-confidence storms of historic severity that pose "imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services." NOAA updates the outlook again on Nov 19.

The Fall Was The Warm-Up

El Niño's wind shear held the Atlantic's first hurricane back about four weeks past the previous modern record. When one finally formed, it still did real damage. Hurricane Isaias came ashore near Destin, Florida, on the evening of Oct 9 with 105 mph winds and knocked out power to about 830,000 homes and businesses across Florida, Alabama and Georgia. Before landfall, producers shut in 63% of Gulf crude output and 57% of its natural gas, and WTI rose as much as 5.6% in a day.

California didn't wait for the first storm. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a statewide emergency on Sept 21, readying the National Guard for floods and staging sandbags, pumps and road-closure equipment.

The grid is running tight going into winter. PJM Interconnection, which serves 67 million people from the Mid-Atlantic to Chicago, declared a low-level emergency this week when an October heat spike hit with 60 gigawatts of generation down for maintenance, and spot power at its western hub touched $1,021 a megawatt-hour. A PJM spokesman said "unpredictable weather patterns are providing fewer days to perform important maintenance."

The food bill comes later. JPMorgan analysts expect El Niño's biggest hit to farm output in the first quarter of 2027, on top of diesel and fertilizer shortages, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's chief economist told CNN global food prices were already climbing before El Niño arrived.

Recall, the numbers:

• NOAA's winter outlook, out Oct 15, favors a wetter South and East Coast and a warmer North, and the January to March outlook keeps the same tilt.
• NOAA gives 83% odds this El Niño tops every one on record for October through December.
• The Gulf Coast runs wet in more than 80% of El Niño winters.
• Isaias, the Atlantic's first and very late hurricane, still cut power to about 830,000 customers.
• The 1997-98 event put 35 California counties under federal disaster declarations.

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Practical Takeaways: Two Weeks, Four Boxes

FEMA's baseline is a gallon of water per person per day for several days, food that doesn't need a fridge, a flashlight, a first aid kit and a phone charger with a backup battery. Two weeks is where most people who have sat through a long outage end up.

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El Niño won't hit every house, and NOAA says so. But the odds this year are the highest on record, and California, the Gulf Coast and the grid are already bracing for it.

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57 California Dams In Poor Or Unsatisfactory Condition, State Auditor Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

A new report from the state auditor says 57 dams in California are in poor or unsatisfactory condition, posing a safety risk to hundreds of thousands of residents.

Out of those 57 dams, 40 have "high or extremely high" hazard classifications as of May, the Oct. 13 report said.

"Failure of just one of these 40 high or extremely high hazard dams could pose harm to as many as hundreds of thousands of people and cause billions of dollars in property damage," the auditor warned, citing the Department of Water Resources' (DWR's) assessment of 1,222 Californian dams.

The most common factors for the poor conditions are old age, the inability to pay for repair costs, and the lack of comprehensive safety standards in effect when the dams were built, the report said.

While the DWR has enforcement authority over dams, it has "only sent notices of violations to dam owners but has not taken further actions, thereby allowing serious deficiencies to persist," the auditor said.

The department stated that limited resources hindered efforts to repair dams before they failed.

Of the 1,222 dams, the auditor found that owners of 60 dams with higher hazard classifications did not comply with California law requiring they submit emergency action plans aimed at protecting life and property in case of structure failure.

Local maintaining agencies (LMAs) were charged with maintenance of levees - structures that help contain or control water flow during floods.

In the report, the auditor wrote that LMAs were lacking when it came to levee maintenance, while the DWR was reluctant to intervene, posing heightened risks to communities.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed an emergency last month to prepare the state for El Niño, when southern areas of the state face increased rainfall and flash flooding.

The largest impacts of El Niño typically affect the United States from October through May.

In the emergency declaration, Newsom highlighted the risks posed to dams by El Niño conditions.

In the proclamation, Newsom ordered the DWR to contact dam owners and remind them of their responsibility to repair, maintain, and safely manage dams and other structures.

Meanwhile, the California state auditor's report included a response from the DWR regarding the draft version of the document.

The response criticized the audit report for portraying a "fundamental lack of understanding" of the complexities involved in flood management and dam safety.

The DWR said the audit misrepresents that poor maintenance and lack of action are the sole reasons for dams being in unsatisfactory condition.

"This further demonstrates the lack of technical understanding that the most critical deficiencies are found through DWR's reevaluation program; these are not visible in an inspection and most often occur because design loads (earthquakes and floods) are larger than originally expected," the department said.

"Design standards, engineering methods, and science have changed over time. These dams were not necessarily built poorly."

The DWR's reevaluation program periodically reviews dams deemed to pose a threat to life against current dam safety standards.

The department said that the program is responsible for detecting more than two-thirds of dam deficiencies.

In a Sept. 30 statement, the DWR announced completing a $235 million rehabilitation of California's Oroville Dam, the tallest in the United States.

"This investment in Oroville Dam's infrastructure ensures the reliable and safe operation of the State Water Project's largest flood protection and water supply facility," John Yarbrough, deputy director of the DWR's State Water Project, said in the statement.

Dam safety is a wider national issue as well.

According to a report from the American Society of Civil Engineers, almost 17,000 dams in the United States are considered potentially high hazard.

The report highlighted that the average age of dams in the United States is more than 60 years, with seven out of 10 estimated to be at least 50 years old in 2025.

"Without a more significant commitment to dam safety through increased annual investment in inspection, monitoring, planning, and necessary dam repairs, the cost to bring the nation's dams into a state of good repair will continue to rise," the association said.

"And downstream communities will face a greater risk of danger from potential dam failure."

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 15:50

Iran War Has Cost Nearly $2,000 Per US Household: Moody's Top Economist

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimated Oct. 12 that the Iran war has cost the average U.S. household nearly $2,000 since it began, or about $265 billion nationwide. He put roughly $1,100 per household on higher energy and transportation costs, $540 on higher interest rates and $360 on military spending, and said the energy tab is still rising by about $50 per household each week at current fuel prices.

An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter, assigned to Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 50, takes off from the flight deck of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner on May 4, 2026. US NAVY/AFP via Getty Images

Zandi wrote on X: "Consider that the war's costs taken together have absorbed about half the average American household's income gain over the past eight months. No wonder the war is so unpopular."

White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly answered in a statement: "Mark Zandi is a Democrat donor who is frequently wrong - including predicting multiple recessions that never happened." She added: "President Trump is rightfully ensuring that Iran, a country that for 47 years chanted 'Death to America,' can never have a nuclear weapon." U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb. 28.

Consider that the war’s costs taken together have absorbed about half the average American household’s income gain over the past eight months. No wonder the war is so unpopular.

— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) October 12, 2026

Zandi's number is a broad economic estimate, not a federal outlay. Brown University puts consumer costs at $133.3 billion, about $1,018 per household, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has testified to about $37.5 billion in direct military costs, Newsweek reported. ZH has tracked estimates running well above the White House's.

As the Epoch Times notes further, "Higher energy prices are contributing most to the costs," Zandi said. "A gallon of regular goes for $4.37, up from just under $3 before the war. Diesel is above $6, and jet fuel has nearly doubled. As winter approaches, the much higher price of home heating fuel is also adding to the costs."

Zandi said the war's inflation contributed to the Fed's decision last month to raise rates and signal that more rate increases are coming.

"Long-term rates are also up a lot - fixed mortgage rates have climbed from below 6 percent before the war to 7.5 percent. By our reckoning, the higher rates have cost the economy about $540 per household," he said.

In September, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the war cost the U.S. military $38.1 billion through Aug. 1. With fighting expected to continue, the war was estimated to cost between $2 billion and $3 billion each month, depending on its intensity.

On Oct. 5, the Congressional Research Service published a report listing some of the major equipment losses during the war.

The report listed 81 fixed-wing or rotary-wing aircraft, including drones that were lost or damaged during the conflict.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated the cost of equipment losses as of Aug. 1 to be between $1.9 billion and $3.3 billion, depending on the Department of War's plans for replacement.

Democrats have continually pointed to the cost of the war in their criticism of Trump.

In September, 46 Democratic or left-leaning Independent Senators sent a letter to Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth demanding more information on the costs of the war.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 15:35

Time's Up! DOJ To Seek 'Emergency Relief' Against California Over Suspected Non-Citizen Voters

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Justice on Oct. 13 sent letters to California election officials demanding a review within 48 hours of registered voters it suspects are noncitizens and asking officials to set aside their mail ballots until their citizenship status can be determined.

If the prescribed course of action wasn't followed by Oct. 15 at noon ET, the letter stated the federal government would seek "emergency relief."

"This should not be controversial, as the criminal statute is clear: Only American citizens may vote in federal elections. It is a federal crime for noncitizens to vote in U.S. elections, and the DOJ is asking California to ensure that is not occurring," a DOJ spokesperson said in an email to The Epoch Times.

The DOJ claims there are thousands of potential foreign nationals not eligible to vote that have been identified as registered voters in California.

Dean Logan, registrar for Los Angeles County, posted a copy of the DOJ's letter on the county clerk website.

In the letter to Los Angeles County, the DOJ stated that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin informed the California secretary of state that there are "likely numerous noncitizens" registered to vote in the federal election in California.

"Accompanying this letter is a password-protected thumb drive with a list of names of people the Federal Government believes are likely noncitizens who were sent a vote-by-mail ballot from California to participate in the November election," the letter stated.

The letter requested that L.A. County review the list within 48 hours. For any individuals the county could not independently verify as citizens, the letter requested election officials be instructed to "segregate - not cancel" those vote-by-mail ballots until their citizenship status could be determined.

If the county didn't comply with the DOJ request, the letter stated, "the United States will have no choice but to seek emergency relief."

Logan said his office has not accessed the drive because doing so would conflict with "established data privacy and information security protocols." He said his office does not consider the device a secure medium and said the letter does not specify the number of individuals involved or describe the information contained in the records.

"Maintaining accurate voter registration records is a fundamental responsibility of our office," Logan said in a statement. "Federal and state laws are clear on how voter eligibility is established - and any action to remove a voter from eligibility must be based on verifiable information, not assertions of unconfirmed data matching."

Logan said that with the 2026 general election underway, his department is focused on administering a safe, secure, accurate, and transparent election.

"We will continue following established legal requirements and verification procedures while protecting the rights of every eligible voter," Logan stated.

Gov. Gavin Newsom's press office posted Wednesday on X in response to the letter.

"With this letter, the Trump administration is demanding that California election officials voluntarily violate federal law enshrined by Congress. Completely unacceptable and inappropriate for the feds to do - especially with their track record," the statement said, not specifying what federal law would be violated.

The California Secretary of State also criticized the DOJ's letter in a response on X.

"The US DOJ's relentless efforts to unlawfully gain access to states' protected voter data and purge voter rolls serve only to cause chaos and fuel public distrust in our elections," the statement said. "California has robust state law requirements that only U.S. citizens can register to vote and that any non-eligible registrants are removed from the State's voter rolls."

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 15:20

RFK Jr. Removes 189,000 Improper Health Care Enrollments

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced Wednesday that the Trump administration has eliminated 189,000 improper government-subsidized health care enrollments, a move expected to save American taxpayers as much as $1.5 billion annually.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) identified duplicate enrollments and coverage associated with deceased individuals across Medicare, Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP).

The sweeping cleanup is part of the administration's broader effort to eliminate wasteful government spending and prevent taxpayer dollars from flowing to insurance companies through improper subsidies.

"In 2026, CMS identified 189,000 subsidized enrollments involving duplicate Medicare, Medicaid, or CHIP coverage on record showing the enrollee has died," Kennedy said during a news conference.

"CMS acted to remove improper subsidies in all these cases."

According to Kennedy, the action will save taxpayers approximately $738 million in 2026, with projected annual savings reaching $1.5 billion in subsequent years.

The HHS secretary emphasized that the improper payments benefited insurance companies rather than Americans receiving medical care.

"Each of those figures represents a payment that would otherwise have gone to an insurance company, not to an American citizen," Kennedy said.

To safeguard against wrongful removal, CMS contacted affected enrollees or their estates and provided a 30-day window to correct potential errors before subsidies were terminated.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 14:50

New DRAM Demand Source Could Surge 20-Fold By 2030

Last month, Jason Chen, chairman and CEO of Taiwanese PC maker Acer, offered some relief from the memory shortage, saying chip prices could begin falling in the second half of next year. That outlook challenges the memory cartel, pardon, the Big Three's claims that prices will keep rising well beyond 2027.

Meanwhile, Chinese memory-chip manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies, better known as CXMT, recently said it had begun mass production of advanced memory chips. Goldman analysts are now looking to Samsung's Oct. 29 earnings report for indications of whether the company expects tight memory-market conditions to persist in 2028.

AI hyperscalers have soaked up the world's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for the data center buildout, sending prices soaring and pressuring consumer electronics companies such as Apple, which was forced to raise prices for the new iPhone 18 premium lineup and foldable Duo.

But with CXMT's supply coming online and major memory giants still warning of tight conditions through next year, we may soon see whether that narrative holds after Samsung's earnings call. A new source of memory demand could also emerge, this time outside data centers and in physical AI.

Counterpoint Research forecasts that DRAM demand could surge with the coming wave of humanoid robot deliveries, expected to begin next year and continue through the decade.

South Korean newspaper The Chosun Daily first cited Counterpoint's note, which said DRAM demand for humanoid robots could explode to 172,000 terabits in 2030 from roughly 8,300 terabits this year.

Average DRAM capacity per humanoid robot is set to roughly double, from 19 gigabytes to 39 gigabytes, over the same period.

More sophisticated AI models have increasingly larger and larger memory requirements, and we're sure those requirements could rise even further. These complex bots process images, video and sound simultaneously and use "world models" to anticipate changes in the surrounding environment, requiring faster processing and greater memory capacity.

Beyond humanoid robotics, memory demand will likely surge for highly autonomous vehicles, which typically require over 200 GB of memory and several terabytes of storage.

Global memory firms are eyeing the robot market. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO, recently said, "Level 4 or higher autonomous vehicles typically require over 200 GB of memory and several terabytes of storage. Humanoid robots will likely need similar levels of memory and storage."

On the demand side of humanoid robotics, Eric Sheridan, managing director and internet/e-commerce equity analyst at Goldman, recently raised his base-case forecast to 75,000 humanoid shipments in 2026, 890,000 in 2030, and 6.5 million in 2035, versus previous estimates of 51,000, 256,000, and 1.4 million, respectively.

"We are raising our humanoid robot market forecast. The global market is now projected to reach approximately 890,000 units by 2030 and 6.5 million units by 2035 (representing a $138 billion market opportunity)," Sheridan told clients in late August.

It's not just data centers that will drive memory demand. Physical AI could become the next major source of demand.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 14:35

Bitcoin Will Become "Less Volatile" And Larger Than Gold: 'The Bitcoin Standard' Author

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Saifedean Ammous, the author of the 2018 academic book "The Bitcoin Standard," said that Bitcoin already functions as a medium of exchange and that volatility's effect on that is likely to diminish.

Bitcoin (BTC) can serve as a medium of exchange as it becomes less volatile than gold while surpassing the market capitalization of the largest precious metal, wrote Ammous in a Tuesday X post.

"Holding Bitcoin is using Bitcoin as money, and its lack of widespread use as a method of payment is no evidence against its monetization unfolding," added Ammous.

The remarks come in response to a passage in Professor Lawrence H. White's book, "Better Money: Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin?," which argued that Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it too volatile to serve as a medium of exchange.

"With no supply response to demand swings, BTC's price is too volatile for people who want a reliable medium of exchange," wrote White in a Monday X post, referencing chapter six of his book.

He added that the lack of supply response was the reason stablecoins have "eaten BTC's lunch transaction volume."

Other industry watchers have also predicted that Bitcoin would eventually surpass gold. In May 2025, Bitwise's head of European research, André Dragosch, told Cointelegraph that their in-house prediction forecasts a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2029, which would make Bitcoin match gold's market capitalization.

However, Bitcoin's current $1.6 trillion market capitalization would need to grow by at least 18-fold to surpass Gold's near $29 trillion market cap to become the leading global asset.

In April 2025, Blockstream CEO Adam Back predicted Bitcoin will start rivaling gold's use cases as a monetary hedge, due to global financial instability and rising fiat inflation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 14:20

Think Rates Are Peaking? Consider Mortgage-Backed Securities

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Think interest rates are peaking? If so, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) deserve a look. Think rates have further to climb? MBS may still earn a place in your fixed-income allocation, potentially offering more yield than Treasuries and essentially no credit risk.

Here is the twist. In 2022 and 2023, MBS investors learned a painful lesson. As rates surged, homeowners stopped refinancing, and MBS durations rose at the worst possible time. Today, that dynamic has largely run its course. With 30-year mortgage rates at 7.25% and nearly 80% of homeowners holding a rate below 6%, refinancing has all but stopped, leaving MBS durations little room to extend further. The feature that hurt MBS investors in 2022 and 2023 has little room for further harm.

MBS are a unique type of bond because mortgagees can prepay part or all of their mortgage at any time without penalty. Thus, MBS investors, who have essentially lent mortgagees money, are, inherently, short a prepayment option. The prepayment option accounts for much of the extra yield MBS offer over Treasuries, as well as their greater interest rate risk. But when the risks are limited, MBS holders are often in an advantageous position.

In this article, we weigh the pros and cons of MBS at current yields, explain what will drive future returns, and share how individual investors can gain exposure.

Setting The Stage

Mortgage rates and Treasury yields have moved sharply higher over the last six months. Per Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28% as of October 1, the highest since November 2023, and up from 6.34% a year ago.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, via Real Investment Advice

The graph above shows that virtually all mortgages originated from the early 2000s have a rate below the current rate. Accordingly, refinancing activity has dried up. To wit, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that its refinance index is over 50% below the same level a year ago. Per Joel Kan of the MBA:

Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in almost three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines.

The iShares MBS ETF (MBB), a reasonable proxy for the agency MBS index, holds securities with a weighted average coupon of 3.63%, roughly 3.50% below the current mortgage rate. With most mortgages at least 2% below current rates, very few homeowners have an economic reason to refinance.

In bond terminology, their prepayment option is worth little. To better understand why this matters for MBS investors, let's focus on MBS duration.

Understanding MBS Duration

Duration measures a bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. A bond with a duration of seven years should lose about 7% of its value if yields rise by 1% and gain about 7% if yields fall by 1%. For Treasury, municipal, and corporate bonds, duration is fairly predictable because their interest and principal cash flows are fixed.

MBS investor cash flows depend on when and by how much homeowners pay down their mortgages, which depends largely on interest rates. Therefore, changes in interest rates have a much more profound impact on MBS durations than Treasury and corporate durations.

MBS investors track effective duration, a model-based duration estimate that accounts for how prepayments are expected to change as rates move.

• When rates rise, refinancing slows, cash flows are pushed further into the future, and duration lengthens.
• When rates fall, refinancing accelerates, principal comes back sooner, and duration shortens.

The graph below shows a hypothetical comparison of MBS and Treasury duration for a range of Treasury yield levels. Note how quickly MBS duration changes when rates are between 4% and 6%. At the same time, note the relatively flat, downward-sloping Treasury duration once rates are above 6%. The lower graph shows that refinancing activity is highly sensitive to rate changes when 10-year Treasury yields are in the 4% to 6% range.

Source: Real Investment Advice (illustrative model, not market data)

Coping With Duration Shifts - Negative Convexity

The graph above shows that MBS rate exposure tends to shift in the wrong direction at the wrong time for investors. For instance:

• Duration increases when yields rise, so price losses are greater than they would have been if duration had remained constant.
• Duration declines when falling rates would otherwise produce larger price gains had duration remained constant.

Those negative consequences are called negative convexity.

This all means that the stated duration of an MBS or portfolio of MBS is a snapshot, not a constant. Investors should expect it to change as rates change and watch where current mortgage rates sit relative to the point at which homeowners can profitably refinance.

Extension Risk Is Largely Spent

Extension risk, or rising duration, has been harming MBS investors since rates started rising in late 2021. As rates rise, refinancing slows, the expected life of the mortgage pool lengthens, and duration increases precisely when investors least want more duration. MBS holders acutely felt the negative convexity in 2022 and 2023.

Today, despite the recent rate increase, much of that extension has already occurred. When a mortgage pool is deeply out of the money, or not economically refinanceable, as many are today, prepayments are driven almost entirely by factors unrelated to interest rates such as:

• Home sales.
• Scheduled amortization of principal.
• Defaults, which, for agency MBS, return principal at par.
• Cash-out refinancing, which is limited at current rates.

These and other sources of principal repayment create a floor under prepayment speeds.

Today, prepayments can't slow much more; thus, further rate increases would not extend duration much. Put differently, MBS investors buying today are taking on duration that is relatively capped on the upside. Accordingly, the risk/reward for MBS looks more balanced than it did a few years ago.

The Con: The Double Whammy If Rates Fall

The flip side of limited duration extension risk is the MBS problem when rates decline. If mortgage rates fall meaningfully, higher-coupon pools face two penalties at once:

• Principal earning higher rates returned through prepayments must be reinvested at lower rates.
• Duration shortens. As refinancing accelerates, the expected life of the MBS declines, capping price appreciation relative to a comparable Treasury.

This is the cost of the prepayment option MBS investors essentially sold to homeowners. The extra yield they earn over Treasuries is the premium they are paid for bearing it.

The Silver Lining To The Double Whammy

Within the double whammy, i.e., negative convexity, lies a potential reward in today's market. If mortgage rates fall by almost 2.5% to 5%, over two-thirds of mortgages, as we share below, have no financial incentive to refinance.

Source: Redfin analysis of FHFA National Mortgage Database (Q3 2025); Freddie Mac PMMS, via Real Investment Advice

For most of the MBS market, falling rates in the recent environment are a good thing:

• Because refinancing will be slow to kick in, duration declines should be minimal; investors can capture a large amount of the price benefit of lower yields.
• Faster prepayments become a gain. Lower rates tend to boost home sales, and every sale pays off a loan at par. For MBS trading below par, each dollar returned early is profit pulled forward.

Bear in mind it's not just the low number of high-rate loans that will likely limit prepays when rates fall. Refinancing takes months for borrowers to notice lower rates, shop lenders, and close loans. Furthermore, given the lack of recent refinancing and home sale activity, lender capacity could become a bottleneck if applications surge.

Also, many borrowers never refinance. Some lack the credit score or home equity to qualify, some have balances too small to justify closing costs, and others simply do not act. As a result, investors continue to collect above-market coupons on the loans that remain.

Falling rates can be very beneficial to MBS holders given today's backdrop.

How To Invest In MBS

For institutional investors, the agency MBS market is one of the deepest and most liquid fixed income markets in the world. Owning individual MBS is ideal in theory. It allows investors to choose the coupon, vintage, and prepayment characteristics that best fit their views. However, in practice, it is challenging and impractical for smaller investors for the following reasons:

• Pools factor down. Every month, a portion of principal is returned. A $100,000 position may be $60,000 within a few years, and small, "odd-lot" positions trade at meaningful discounts to larger pools.
• Monthly principal must be reinvested. Small, irregular cash flows are difficult to put back to work efficiently.
• Prepayment analysis requires data and models most individual investors do not have.
• Dealer access and pricing transparency for small trades are limited.

For these reasons, an ETF or mutual fund may be a more practical option for smaller investors. Funds handle reinvestment, maintain diversification across coupons and vintages, and benefit from professional management, institutional models, and lower trading costs.

Passive ETFs such as MBB offer broad index exposure at low cost; its expense ratio is 0.04%. Actively managed MBS funds, such as JMBS, can shift their holdings toward coupons and specified pools that managers believe offer better convexity profiles, albeit at higher fees.

Investors should review a fund's coupon distribution, effective duration, and use of leverage or derivatives. Two funds with similar durations can behave differently.

The graphic below compares the most popular passive MBS ETF, MBB, to the largest active ETF, JMBS.

Source: iShares, Janus Henderson fund pages (as of Oct 5, 2026), via Real Investment Advice

Summary- Investment Thesis

A bullish thesis rests on two key points. First, interest rates stabilize and start to fall.

Second, even if rates rise, the duration shift is largely capped, as the graph below shows. Accordingly, assuming MBS-to-Treasury spreads do not change, the price change between an MBS and a similar-maturity Treasury will not be that indifferent.

Three years ago, extension risk was the reason to avoid MBS. Today, it is one reason to own them. With most mortgages far below market rates, MBS duration has little room left to extend or refinance. Investors are left with an asset class that offers high yields, minimal credit risk, and stable duration.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 13:50

Lisa Cook's Attorney Challenges Fairness Of White House Probe

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook's attorney called into question the fairness and objectivity of a White House probe after President Donald Trump announced a new committee to investigate whether Cook made false statements.

In an Oct. 13 letter to White House counsel William Scharf obtained by The Epoch Times, lawyer Abbe Lowell wrote that one proposed member of the committee that will review the allegations against Cook, White House economic policy adviser Kevin Hassett, had previously pressed Cook to go on leave from her office and said Trump had "cause" to fire her.

A year ago, Hassett said Cook's refusal to step aside was "a partisan stance contrary to the independence of the Fed." Lowell said this comment suggests that he has prejudged the case.

The White House has proposed a Nov. 5 in-person hearing with Cook.

"A hearing with demonstrably biased members, unspecified additional allegations, and an unclear schedule for the disclosure of any additional evidence - with no explanation for why it was not previously produced - is not a process that respects the appearance or history of independence" of the Fed, Lowell wrote.

These are some of the issues that would have to be addressed before a hearing could take place, he said.

The Oct. 13 letter from Lowell comes days after Trump unveiled the new committee to investigate whether Cook made false statements.

The committee will probe allegations that Cook provided false information in connection with at least one mortgage instrument, Trump said in a presidential memorandum establishing the panel.

Trump later told reporters he would fire Cook if the committee were to recommend it. Cook's attorneys have said a fair hearing would demonstrate that the president has no legal basis for firing her.

Lowell said Cook will not be able to appear at the November hearing because she will be in Europe attending financial and monetary policy meetings. The earliest she is available is after the Fed's policy meeting set for Dec. 8 and Dec. 9, he said.

On June 29, the Supreme Court blocked the firing, rejecting Trump's arguments that he could avoid judicial review. The 5-4 decision said Cook was "entitled to notice and some opportunity to respond before her termination."

The ruling outlined a path for possibly removing Cook if she were given a chance to review the evidence and afforded an opportunity to refute it, which appears to be the path the White House is pursuing.

Trump said he followed the provisions of the Federal Reserve Act, which he said permits presidents to remove board members "for cause."

White House spokesperson Matthew Middleton defended the process, saying the Constitution requires the president to ensure that laws are followed and that the conduct of Fed governors "is above reproach."

"The President is going beyond what the Supreme Court required by offering Lisa Cook an in-person hearing that will be conducted in a fair and open process," he told The Epoch Times.

A White House official said the committee will consist of a senior economist and expert on the Federal Reserve, an employment law expert, and an expert in government ethics. Cook's hearing will be on the record, and she will be allowed to be represented by an attorney. She will be given the evidence in advance and will have an opportunity to present her own written evidence, as well as written witness statements, the official said.

President Joe Biden appointed Cook as one of the Federal Reserve's board members in 2022 and reappointed her in 2023. Both times, Cook was confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

Zachary Stieber and Sam Dorman contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/15/2026 - 12:20