An Aspirational Tech Right–Populist Right Alliance

Authored by Nate Fischer via American Intelligence,

The relationship between the tech right and the populist right is a central question of our day.

After an initial alliance in the lead-up to the 2024 campaign, fissures quickly appeared. The first prominent one was the Christmas H-1B fight. Others followed, both in and out of the administration. In many ways, the divide has been growing -- with Bannon leading tech critiques, and Republican politicians like DeSantis staking out tech-skeptical stances. Trump has managed to keep things together, but the future is unclear.

I believe an alliance is necessary both for America's success and for the right to have the power to dislodge the entrenched establishment left.

The simplest approach would be a pragmatic alliance of necessity -- both factions push distinct priorities, and compromise where necessary to form a political coalition.

But I think we should aim for more — for an alliance between the tech right and the populist (or cultural) right that gives each group a crucial, or even heroic, role in a shared vision for America. I believe such a vision can center on (1) an appreciation for the conditions — and the people — that ultimately drive tech-enabled prosperity, and (2) an appreciation for how disruptive technology can structurally favor right-aligned constituencies and address central priorities of the cultural right.

Populists need tech:

The populist right needs tech. It may not need specific tech elites, or even anywhere close to a majority of current Silicon Valley figures, but it needs a positive vision for technology and it needs people who can master technology. Two factors drive this:

First, Americans have always been favorably inclined to technology. I believe if the parties split on technology, the pro-tech party will have a significant structural advantage with the electorate. This inclination is not new: In 1840, Tocqueville noted how Americans happily built ships that would last only a few years because of their enthusiasm for new innovations that would quickly obsolesce them. In the mid-to-late nineteenth century, Americans broadly embraced the power of technologies from the revolver to the railroad to conquer and settle the West. And America's embrace of technology was certainly apparent in the broad popularity of the tech industry for much of the last half-century. It's possible a tech-skeptical party can succeed in other countries, but I suspect that in America any party capable of real wins must present a positive vision for the use and mastery of technology.

Second, whether we like it or not, technology will shape the future. This has always been true to varying extents; people and groups who mastered major new technologies usually gained outsized influence, and often came to rule new regimes. In the case of major transitions like the shift to the digital age, the stakes are particularly high. Opposing technologies like AI may be a little like opposing gunpowder in the fifteenth century: many may not have liked its impact on the world, but the world was shaped by those who mastered it.

Tech needs populists:

The tech right also needs populist support. Entrenched legacy leftist interest groups retain tremendous power, and without strong opposition, will simultaneously try to stifle new technologies and squeeze technologists for the money needed to fund their ever-more-bloated programs. Populists represent large factions deeply skeptical of this legacy regime, and are capable of bringing tremendous political energy to any opposing coalition.

A populist right aligns with tech on more than just opposition to legacy elites. Right-leaning Americans are among the only people on earth broadly supportive of the free market policies and rule of law that allow Silicon Valley to thrive. While populism can create tensions with free-market and rule-of-law idealists, the broad populist right goal of cultural preservation includes restoration of the conditions necessary to preserve these norms.

Deeper alignment:

Finally, I believe the tech right and populist right need each other — not just to politically partner against common enemies, but to achieve the technological dynamism technologists pursue, and the restored status and opportunity populists seek.

This symbiosis reflects the particular character of the American people in a time of technological disruption: Americans are uniquely suited to mastering technology.

Americans are good for tech innovators--multiplying the impact of new technologies by acting not just as consumers but as creative and productive users of technology. This is not limited to a few exceptional entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley; rather, millions of Americans in companies across the country have a particular drive (relative to many other cultures globally) to find new sources of leverage and better ways to do things. These are the people who jump on new technologies that can solve such problems, embracing the change this entails. A country of such people is a country ripe for innovations that would find far smaller markets in more conservative or less resourceful societies. This particular character opens the aperture for technological innovation, and plays a key role in America's technological dynamism.

By the same token, technologists can be good for the American people. While many tech innovations theoretically spread rapidly around the globe, in practice, Americans will often be the biggest beneficiaries of them because of this particular facility with technology--advancing the relative position of the American people in a time of global and cultural competition. This is especially true for core constituencies of the populist right, such as independent executives and skilled physical-world workers, who stand to benefit from technologies like AI – in contrast with core opposing constituencies like bureaucrats, who are ripe for replacement with AI.

Call to action:

Thus, the tech right should champion not just the free markets widely recognized as enabling Silicon Valley's success, but also the people and culture that make America such a fertile place for technological innovation and development. Practically this means embracing both product and policy decisions that strengthen rather than undermine this culture. This means building products that solve critical problems and serve as platforms for broader productive application, and avoiding products that contribute to vice or addiction. And it means supporting immigration and trade policies that first and foremost strengthen the American people, rather than optimizing for those that serve the most immediate desires of tech companies.

The populist right should embrace technological innovation. This means encouraging Americans at all levels to master new technologies, recognizing the potential of such technologies to advance America's position versus geopolitical rivals and the position of core populist right constituencies domestically. And it means politically supporting tech leaders who accept their responsibility to the American people – supporting policies that allow continued innovation, and protecting successful innovators from the confiscatory efforts of the left.

The alliance I propose is aspirational: Today, many in Silicon Valley – even many who would see themselves on the right – have little regard for the priorities of the populist or cultural right. And many populists more easily see the immediate threats that social media poses to families and that AI poses to jobs, and they remember with distrust the degree to which tech companies embraced censorship and deplatforming. But I believe the need for political alliance is clear, and the potential alignment toward a shared vision far deeper than many recognize. One of the great opportunities for statesmanship in coming years is the forging of such an alliance.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 18:55

"Surprise" X1.5 Solar Flare Detected Ahead Of NASA's Rocket Launch To Moon

Space weather website SolarHam reported Monday morning that a "surprise X1.5 solar flare" was detected on the sun and may impact Earth within the next 48 hours. This comes ahead of NASA's Artemis II launch on Wednesday and could affect the launch if the solar storm is severe.

"AR 4405 erupted this morning at 03:18 UTC (Mar. 30) with a surprise X1.5 solar flare. This event launched a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, which also appears to have an Earth-directed component," SolarHam wrote in a space weather update earlier this morning.

A 1.15 X-flare exploded from sunspot 4405, launched a gigantic coronal mass ejection into space which will impact Earth and our surrounding space environment right around April 1st. This is the date set for the launch of Artemis II, a ten day space mission around the Moon by… pic.twitter.com/3cTNRkbsHQ

— Stefan Burns (@StefanBurnsGeo) March 30, 2026

The update continued, "Although the main bulk of plasma is heading to the east, the edge of the CME should pass Earth within the next 48 hours."

For context, an X1.5 solar flare is large. The standard scale goes A, B, C, M, then X, with each step representing a 10-fold increase in X-ray intensity. That means an X-class flare is the strongest major category.

A strong X-class solar flare can affect GPS, satellites, communications, and power grids, and even cause delays in rocket launches. The size of the disruption depends on whether it is Earth-facing and whether it is accompanied by a coronal mass ejection.

Upcoming this week is NASA's Artemis II crewed mission atop the Space Launch System rocket. So far, government forecasters are calling for an 80% chance of acceptable weather on launch day. NASA has not provided any update indicating that the current solar storm threat will affect the mission. Artemis II is currently targeted for no earlier than Wednesday, April 1, at 6:24 p.m. EST.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 18:30

The Assisted Suicide Of Lofty State And Local Taxes

Authored by Rob Arnott via RealClearPolitics,

We get the government we choose to elect, hence the government we deserve. Voting for ever-higher punitive taxes on the rich is arguably a form of civic suicide. Consider that a wealthy New Yorker can get a raise of almost 40% just by moving.

That’s right. If moving eliminates a 14.8% top state and local tax rate, our top-tier taxpayer gets a 36% raise, not a 14.8% raise, by leaving. It’s doubtful if any of our city and state leaders have done this math, but it’s shocking.

Mamdani wants to take the top rate up another 2%, if not by the state then by the city, which would mean that our rich neighbor can get a 42% raise.

Here’s how the math works.

A rich New Yorker pays a maximum state and city income tax of 14.8%, on top of a maximum federal tax of 37%. But there are hidden taxes. Uncapped Medicare and Medicaid taxes push the marginal federal tax to 39.4%. If the income is earned on investments, the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT, another gift from Obamacare) adds another 3.8%, pushing the top federal tax above 43%.

So, top-tier New York taxpayers may soon pay a marginal tax of 43% to the IRS and 17% to the city and state of New York. The combined 60% marginal tax rates mean they have the privilege of keeping 40 cents of each new dollar they earn. A move to one of the nine states with no income tax allows our taxpayer to keep 57% of every additional dollar of income, instead of 40%. Do the math. That’s a 42% raise.

Forget the argument about “paying their fair share.” “Fair” is an entirely subjective term. Your fair share of someone else’s money might be seen as a ripoff by them, especially if the money is spent less wisely than we might spend our own money. If you are rich and believe you’ve earned your money, will you consider leaving a state for a permanent 40% raise? Of course.

This is hardly a phenomenon unique to New York. California’s headline top rate of 13.3% becomes 14% with the phase-out of deductions. A Silicon Valley billionaire can keep 43% of each new dollar of income. Moving to Dallas or Miami, or Anchorage for the adventuresome, boosts this to 57%, a raise of almost 33%. This doesn’t even count the “please leave now” impetus of a “one-time only” 5% wealth tax on billionaires. Never mind that the fine print on the wealth tax initiative turns a 5% tax into a 50% expropriation for billionaires like the founders of Google, because their 30% voting share at Google, not their 3% equity ownership, is used to determine the tax.

People have called the United States “50 laboratories of democracy.” A state or a city is welcome to impose whatever taxes, regulations, or laws are allowed by its own bylaws or the national Constitution. And citizens are welcome to choose whichever states have taxes, regulations, and laws that they feel best align with their values and beliefs.

Nor is it unique to our various states, with their diverse tax regimes. Taxes drove the Rolling Stones to their own “Exile on Main Street,” relocating to France of all places to escape England’s 90% top tax rate (where a tiny drop to 85% would provide a 50% pay raise). Even Switzerland has divergent tax rates, ranging from 22% in Zug to roughly 40% in Berne, Geneva, and Vaud. Where do the billionaires tend to live? Zug.

Milton Friedman has been credited with the observation that the only thing more mobile than the wealthy is their capital. It is the rich who largely fund government spending, whether that spending is at the federal, state, or local level, and whether that spending is wise or foolish. Instead of a politics of envy, perhaps we should try a politics of gratitude.

Rob Arnott is founding chairman of Research Affiliates, a $160 billion asset management firm based in Newport Beach, CA.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 18:05

Gulf LNG Crisis Set To 'Make Coal Great Again'

Our weekend wrap on the global energy crisis focused on Asia as ground zero and how the shock will ripple across the world, eventually hitting the US. This is now the second major energy crunch of the decade: first Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now the U.S.-Iran conflict. However, this one looks a lot more catastrophic.

The immediate impact of this energy crunch will be a resurgence of coal, especially across Asia, as power grid operators will be forced to switch to the dirtiest fuel to keep electricity affordable during the crisis.

"We are now seeing a second, very large energy supply shock," Goldman commodities expert Samantha Dart told Bloomberg.

Dart added, "If you're sitting in Asia, going through this again, it's possible you change your strategy long term, rely more on coal for longer, build out your renewables faster, and reduce your exposure to natural gas."

Last week, JPMorgan's commodity expert showed just how Asia has emerged as ground zero of the global energy crisis. The shock is expected to spread worldwide, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before eventually reaching the U.S., though the most acute impact there may be concentrated in California.

Source

Bloomberg noted that Japan is already turning back to coal-fired power generation. India and Bangladesh are also running coal plants at higher capacity, while some European countries may soon be forced to burn more coal as disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Qatar's LNG export hub tighten global gas supplies and send prices sharply higher.

Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, who has warned about the worst energy shock on record, told the outlet that "high energy prices will lead governments, industries, and households to look at other options." Those options include "at least temporarily, upward pressure on the use of coal both for electricity generation and for the industrial sector," he said.

We cited Dart's note earlier this month that showed natural gas prices across Europe and Asia have jumped so much during the US-Iran conflict that gas and oil to coal switching has already been viewed favorably by power grid operators.

Dart showed the price zones for Europe's benchmark NatGas, TTF, where fuel switching occurs:

• The pink band is the lignite-switching range.

• The gray band is the hard-coal-switching range.

• The green band is the industrial oil-switching range.

One takeaway is that Asia is likely to be the biggest switcher to coal because it has relied so heavily on Middle Eastern energy and already has large coal fleets. China is somewhat better insulated because it has diversified its energy supplies, as we notedearlier.

Wood Mackenzie coal specialist Tony Knutson also warned that the energy shock is a "bigger disruption than the Russian war" and said countries without sufficient gas buffers to weather the storm will be forced to switch to coal, adding, "I don't think they have a choice."

Trump did tell voters during the campaign trail he would 'make coal great again' ... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 17:40

US Fighter Jets Intercept Civilian Aircraft Flying Near Trump's Mar-a-Lago

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said F-16 fighter jets intercepted a plane that entered restricted airspace near President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate ‌in Palm Beach, Florida, on March 29.

The civilian aircraft entered a temporary flight restriction zone near the estate at about 1:15 p.m. ET, prompting fighter jets to dispense flares in response, which were visible to the public, NORAD said in a press release.

NORAD said the flares were intended to get the pilot’s attention and are designed “with the highest regard for safety, burn out quickly and completely, and pose no danger to people on the ground.”

The fighter jets subsequently escorted the plane safely out of the area, according to NORAD, which oversees the airspace of the United States and Canada.

“The situation was resolved safely,” NORAD wrote in a social media post.

NORAD did not specify where the aircraft originated from or where it was heading. It also remains unclear whether the president was present at the time of the incident.

Temporary flight restrictions are imposed when aviation authorities seek to block off some airspaces for a limited time. These restrictions could be in place because of national security situations, major sporting events, or natural disasters, according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

NORAD stated that when an intercept happens, pilots of the aircraft must immediately come up on frequency 121.5 or 243.0 and turn their plane around to reverse course until they receive further instructions on one of those frequencies.

“NORAD employs a layered defense network of radars, satellites, and fighter aircraft to identify and respond to potential threats,” it said.

Aircrews are reminded to check with the FAA on restricted airspaces, especially when operating near the National Capitol Region and Mar-a-Lago regions, it added.

Pilots who violate temporary flight restrictions could face sanctions ranging from warnings and fines to suspensions or revocations of their pilot certificates, depending on the circumstances of the violation, according to the FAA.

NORAD ​reported dozens of similar incidents near Mar-a-Lago last year. In November 2025, NORAD said it had responded to “over 40 tracks of interest” violating temporary flight restrictions near the Palm Beach area since Trump’s return to a second term in January 2025.

On Dec. 21, 2025, F-16 fighter jets responded after a civilian aircraft breached a no-fly zone near Mar-a-Lago, which had been put in place ahead of Trump’s arrival at the estate for his annual Christmas and New Year’s visit.

NORAD said the fighter jets responded by carrying out a “headbutt maneuver,” in which the jet flew directly in front of the plane to get the pilot’s attention.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 17:15

Two Chinese Container Ships That Were Previously Turned Back By Iran, Now Allowed To Transit Hormuz Strait

On Friday we reported that there was a moment of surprise among vessel trackers, when Iran unexpectedly blocked two container ships owned by China's Cosco from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Two days later, this misunderstanding appears to have been resolved, and on Monday Bloomberg reported that the same two container ships linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, the first such vessels operated by a major Beijing-backed company to navigate the waterway since the Middle East war broke out.

After aborting an initial transit attempt on Friday, COSCO’s ultra-large container vessels - CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean - have successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz after beginning their journey eastward from within the Persian Gulf on Monday morning, signalling a potential shift in conditions for commercial shipping.

The ships started their almost 12-hour-long journeys from waters off Dubai. They took a route near Iran’s Larak and Qeshm islands at the narrow opening of the strait, before sailing into waters of the Gulf of Oman.

The ships don’t appear to be carrying any cargo aside from empty container boxes, according to draft readings of how low they sit in the water. They are listed as part of Cosco Shipping Lines’ fleet, which is a subsidiary of Cosco Shipping Corp. Both vessels are currently bound for Port Klang, Malaysia, as they continue their voyage on COSCO’s MEX service, linking the Middle East with the Far East.

The global shipping market has been keenly watching the journeys of these two Cosco ships for signs of how China plans to extract its vessels from the gulf, as it seeks to stem a deepening energy crisis and a plunge in China-to-Middle East trade.  

The two vessels, each with the capacity to transport about 19,000 TEUs, were seen taking the same route on Monday. They have been stuck in the Persian Gulf for more than a month since the US and Israel launched the war against Iran.

The successful transit marks the first confirmed crossing by a major container carrier since the start of the conflict.

Cosco Shipping is one of the world’s largest shipowners, with massive containership and tanker fleets operated by its subsidies. Aside from the container ships, Cosco also has at least six crude tankers stuck inside the Gulf since the war began, according to ship-tracking data.

In an early sign of a resumption of Hormuz transits, Cosco Shipping Lines last week informed customers that it would be recommencing bookings for general cargo containers from east Asia to the Middle East, including some located in the gulf. The company owns and operates 453 container ships that have a total capacity of about 2.5 million twenty-foot equivalent containers, or TEUs, as at end January.

*  *  * (Add 'Frequently Bought Together' for 10% discount without a subscription)

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 16:50

Springtime For RINOs

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“This sort of derangment is a novel psychopathology in the human species. . . a synthesis of low-IQ feminized brain scramble & neurotic lunacy."

- JD Haltigan on X

Went to the No Kings assemblies in my town and the next nearby town on Saturday. Mental illness as far as the eye could see. Old folks, too, as far as the eye could see, predominately of the female persuasion: the devouring grandmothers. The Democratic Party has marshalled mental illness as its premier campaign strategy, and lately it is winning bigly around the country as mental illness becomes the go-to cope option for the ragged remnants of Boomerdom.

They believe things that are patently insane, for instance, the latest proposal by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) that illegal immigrants deserve reparations on account of being “traumatized” by U.S. immigration enforcement actions.

If it feels like the Democratic Party is at war with our country you are not hallucinating.

It is every bit as much a jihad as the Death to America crowd in Iran has explicitly pushed since 1979.

The president gets no help whatsoever from his own party, as you see in the disgraceful hijinks around the urgent issue of election reform. You know exactly how the election playbook was written: let x-million foreigners into the country illegally, give them (illegally) social security numbers, driver’s licenses, automatic voter registrations, addresses, mail-in ballots. . . and voila! They don’t even have to mail-in their own mail-in ballots. Lawfare ninja Marc Elias will arrange ballot pick-up service. And the cherry on top is that the census must count all the illegal aliens to add new congressional districts for extra seats in Congress.

So, in the face of that, Republican Majority Leader John Thune could not muster enough votes to save the SAVE Act. Or so he said. Looks more like lack a’wanna. Eerie lack a’wanna. On their tours of cable news, the hapless Republican senators, when asked, would not name their colleagues leaning against the SAVE Act. But you know who they are. Mitch McConnell, Murkowski, Tillis, Collins, Capito.

Leader Thune could not even manage to get Homeland Security funded with the prospect of Iranian sleeper cells awakening around the country. He just threw in the towel at three o’clock in the morning on Friday, and sent the whole crew home to meet the Easter Bunny. Chuck Schumer did an end-zone dance. The brokenness of our politics could not be more in your face. As things shape up this grueling springtime, Mr. Trump might have to go Abe Lincoln on these folks. That is, declare some sort of national emergency to save the election and the country.

Of course, the nation is more than a little distracted just now with doings in Iran. The No Kings folk are unabashedly rooting for everything to go wrong there, and not a few conservatives in the public arena are straining to conjure an Iranian victory in their black-pilled deliriums. Many claim they “have no idea” what we are doing there — can it be that hard? — or else they are rabidly exercised over our alliance with Israel in the operation. You know how that goes. Cue Tucker. He’ll explain.

The truth is we are pounding these savage Shia clerics and their Revolutionary Guard myrmidons to the garden of eternal bliss where the seventy-two virgins wait. Whatever remains of Iran’s legit government is bargaining under cover for an off-ramp now. Pakistan mediates. The parties sit in different rooms and pass notes through the mediators in a third room. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pretends that he will not negotiate with Mr. Trump’s envoys, Witkoff and Kushner, both Jews, the horror! But that’s sheer fakery.

To avoid humiliation in the process, Iran is still lobbing missiles and drones around the Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and they will probably keep doing that until the very moment of capitulation. Anyway, in less than a week, Mr. Trump turns the lights off all over Iran, and then they are back in the twelfth century. . . no command communication, no juice for anything, no money, no food, no water, no nothing . . . and a population getting dangerously desperate to make it all go away. . . to return to some dim memory of what normal life once was in an Iran not ruled by psychotic death cultists.

Everybody else is greatly alarmed by the disruption of Persian Gulf oil supplies through Hormuz.

Global finance was already pretty shaky before the hot war commenced, and the economic tail of that dog was not wagging happily.

In America, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Apollo Global, and Blue Owl Capital had recently “gated” redemptions — meaning investors can’t get all or part of their money out of plays that are folding on collateral rot. This private equity fiasco has significant contagion potential.

The sudden oil shock makes everything feel a hundred times worse, and pain is already felt, especially in the far east and Australia / New Zealand.

But consider that the Hormuz “blockade” is also a bit of last-ditch capitulation bravado.

It could be a shorter crisis than the alarmists imagine. We see everything that Iran has got from high in the sky, whatever attack boats remain. . . the thermal signatures of rockets going off. . . the bays where the drones emerge.

Mr. Trump might order troops in to the stabilize ports and more than one island. Or perhaps not.

I doubt we’ll know until after Iranian lights go out. If the kinetics conclude, what remains is re-starting the maritime insurance apparatus with or without Lloyd’s of London. Then, tankers start moving again.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 16:25

Off-Ramp In Progress? Israeli Media Signals 'Completion Phase' Of Iran War

It's no secret that Washington is looking for an off-ramp amid what has been a steady pattern of escalation with Iran over the past month since Operation Epic Fury began. The White House's anticipated timeline and even list of objectives has seriously shifted since the war's start, as has the scope, given Tehran's 'unexpected' big retaliatory strikes on the Gulf and Israel - including on energy and infrastructure targets.

It seems Trump was thinking Iran could be parallel to the Venezuela situation - where a 'decapitation' operation swiftly removed Maduro and the US basically acknowledged a pliant puppet in his place (Delcy Rodríguez). That's why White House officials at the very start were talking about an operation that would lust just 'days' or maybe a couple weeks. Now, one month in, and we have fresh headlines like this: "Iran war enters its fourth week with no clear end in sight."

The US administration is meanwhile trying to refocus its definable objectives, however overall vision and strategy for a 'mission accomplished' end-goal has been anything but clear. For example, the start of the war saw the White House officially list as an objective the end of Iran's nuclear program and removal of enriched uranium - but that is no longer listed.

Instead, the State Dept. - citing Marco Rubio - has issued the following military objectives in Iran:

1. The destruction of Iran's air force

2. The destruction of their navy

3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability

4. The destruction of their factories

These are much more 'achievable aims' allowing the Trump administration to save face by declaring they've all been met, whenever it wants to proclaim a mission complete situation, and pull Pentagon assets from the theatre.

But the fact that Iran still has de facto hold over the Strait of Hormuz remains a big problem, as does its ongoing nuclear capabilities, despite that nuclear sites have been degraded or possibly destroyed.

One big and somewhat surprising sign that the US-Israeli coalition could be about to wind down the war is that Times of Israel on Monday ran the following headline:

"A month into the war with Iran, the Israeli military has almost completed bombing all of the targets it defined for itself at the start of the conflict, and has now been ordered by Israel’s political leadership to shift to hitting 'economic' targets of the Iranian regime," the publication wrote.

It goes on: "The Israeli Air Force has conducted hundreds of waves of strikes in Iran, dropping over 13,000 bombs on Iranian regime and military sites, including air defense systems, ballistic missile launchers, weapon production sites, some nuclear facilities, and various headquarters."

The same report also details how dozens of top civilian and military leaders have been killed in the campaign, and most importantly longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamnieni. However, the report also mentions one Israeli objecting of "setting the conditions" for some kind of popular uprising which could topple the government, and that has not happened. Still, the language in the report strongly suggests an offramp could be in the works, perhaps under pressure by the United States:

On Saturday, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said that “within a few days” the military would complete targeting all of the “critical” assets of Iran’s military production industries, sites used to develop weapons that threaten Israel. The military has also said it has taken out most of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems.

And here's a key line from Times of Israel:

Israel’s defense establishment is now in what it described as the “completion phase” of the goals it set out at the start of the war, meaning it believes it has largely achieved its objectives of degrading Iran’s military capabilities and “creating the conditions” for the Iranian regime to fall, The Times of Israel has learned.

Yet there are still other signs which suggest the war could go on for quite a bit longer, and even turn into a deeper quagmire, given the White House has yet to rule out ground forces.

I told @NewYorker: “What is the point of the entire U.S. military role in the Middle East? If it has any point, it should be to prevent something like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet U.S. military action has only brought about the very problem it’s supposed to prevent.”

— Stephen Wertheim (@stephenwertheim) March 30, 2026

Is Trump heading toward trying to 'force' a 'mission accomplished' moment? It would be interesting if this happened before the Strait of Hormuz was actually opened up. Such an outcome would probably be used by Iranian officials to instead declare 'victory' for the Islamic Republic.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 15:40

Cory Booker Blasts Party, Says Democrats 'Failed This Moment', And Calls For New Leaders

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) appeared on NBC's Meet the Press Sunday morning and delivered a scathing rebuke of his own party, saying it has “failed this moment.” 

Booker was on the show to promote his new book, and host Kristen Welker read a passage from it in which he argues that political coalitions can’t succeed if they exclude people based on “purity tests” or demand total agreement on every issue. 

In his book, he wrote, “We cannot cancel everyone who fails a purity test. We cannot exile those who don’t align with our every belief, however passionately we hold it. Coalitions that are only composed of the already converted cannot change the country. If everyone in your coalition agrees with you on everything, your coalition is too small, too small to make big change and too small for what our democracy demands.”

Welker then pressed him on whether Democrats are shrinking their coalition by doing exactly that. “Do you believe Democrats are making the mistake of shrinking their coalition with what you describe as purity tests, senator?”

“Look, I’m proud of so many things that my Democratic colleagues are doing, but as a whole, our party has failed this moment,” he replied. “It’s why I’ve called for new leadership in America. I’ve called for a generational renewal, because this left-right divide is killing our country, and our adversaries know it. They come onto our social media and try to whip up hate in America. That is one of our biggest crises. It is time for a new vision of our country that’s far more uniting, that brings people together, doesn’t deepen divides. I really believe this is a time where we need new leadership, new moral imagination to pull our country together, because the challenges on the horizon aren’t just this current crisis that Trump has caused.”

Booker even appeared to criticize the Democrats’ Trump obsession, telling Welker that Trump “shouldn’t be the main character of our narrative right now.”

“We have real challenges from new technologies like AI and robotics, new challenges, that we need more unity in our country, and a reminder that we are not each other’s enemies. In fact, our ability to find common ground has always been our greatest hope.”

Booker continued, "Americans want a new generation of leaders that show that they can lift the whole country up," he said. And then, in case anyone missed it: "It is time for a new vision of our country that is far more uniting that brings people together, doesn't deepen divides."

While hawking his new book on Meet the Press, Cory Booker calls for new leaders in the Democrat Party and says that Democrats have "failed this moment."

"I'm proud of so many things that my Democratic colleagues are doing, but as a whole, our party has failed this moment."

Then… pic.twitter.com/3Js1l3Pjk1

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) March 29, 2026

Booker’s comment reeks of irony. According to reports, Senate Democrats are quietly - and not so quietly - tearing each other apart over Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. 

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) recently met with progressive activists in Georgetown, where the discussion turned to whether Chuck Schumer could be pushed out of leadership. Murphy indicated that some lawmakers had been informally counting votes to gauge support for removing Schumer. Murphy is reportedly part of a group of senators quietly canvassing colleagues about dissatisfaction with Schumer. That group, dubbed “Fight Club,” is reportedly coordinating through a Signal chat to oppose Schumer’s preferred candidates in key 2026 races. The group believes Schumer has been putting his thumb on the scale for centrist candidates while an insurgent wave of progressive energy goes untapped. 

That sounds like a party that is still demanding ideological purity, not diversity. It would be foolish to think that Cory Booker is calling for the next generation of Democratic leaders to take over because they’ll bring ideological diversity to the party. Much of the anger against Chuck Schumer stems from his vote to fund the federal government in March of 2025 to avoid a shutdown. His approval ratings tanked because he was seen as capitulating to President Donald Trump, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been floated as a possible primary challenger, and polling even showed her with a double-digit lead over Schumer.

 Who does Booker think he’s fooling?

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 15:20

Turkey Reports Another Iranian Missile Near-Miss Over NATO Skies

Another near-miss has unfolded over NATO skies, with Turkey on Monday announcing that air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran. It's another dangerous indication that the Iran war could easily expand into a broader conflict at any moment. 

The intercept was carried out by air and missile defense assets positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean, according to the Turkish defense ministry, which offered no further initial details concerning trajectory, type, or what the intended target ultimately was.

US Navy image, illustrative

This marks the fourth fourth such interception since March of the war and Operation Epic Fury, which has surpassed the one-month mark.

The timing is notable given Ankara is simultaneously trying to play middleman between Washington and Tehran, alongside Pakistan where regional diplomats have been trying to jump-start direct Tehran-Washington talks, which has proven elusive.

Turkish and NATO officials have struck a familiar tone, describing that "all necessary measures" are being taken to counter threats to Turkish territory and airspace, and further saying that ongoing developments will be "closely monitored".

There's been speculation that these ballistic missiles from Iran could be intended for US-British military assets in Cyprus. Earlier in the conflict drones were sent - likely from Iranian allies in Lebanon - onto a British airbase in EU-member Cypriot territory.

NATO command has previously stated that "Our deterrence and defense posture remains strong across all domains, including when it comes to air and missile defense."

This developing pattern of large Iranian missiles flying over Turkey has raised the potential for invoking NATO Article 5, despite US officials having downplayed this option. 

During the first incident, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth had described, "On the matter with Turkey, I'll have to get back to you on exactly what the intercept looked like."

He laid out at the time that "We're aware of that particular engagement, although no sense that it would trigger anything like Article 5."  

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 14:20

Denver Imposes Water Restrictions, Orders Restaurants To Serve Only On Request

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Restaurants in Colorado’s capital are only allowed to serve water to guests if they ask, according to new restrictions by the Denver Board of Water Commissioners.

A scenic view of the Denver skyline at sunset, with the Rocky Mountains in the background and a forest in the foreground. Bill Ross/Getty Images

“Restaurants and catering businesses shall serve water only upon request,” the mandatory irrigation restrictions read.

The rules were issued in the Mile High City after the commissioners declared a Stage 1 Drought and made plans to seek a 20 percent reduction in water use. City officials expect drought conditions to last until April 30, 2027.

The update will affect many businesses, including the hospitality industry.

“Lodging establishments shall not change sheets more often than every four days for guests staying more than one night, except for health or safety reasons or upon express request of guests,” the Denver Board of Water Commissioners stated.

Drivers who attempt to wash their car are told to use a bucket or a hand-held hose equipped with an automatic shut-off nozzle if they don’t use a commercial car wash.

Residents can water their grass only two days per week, according to the schedule provided by city officials, but it is prohibited between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m., when the sun is up.

“Current conditions indicate that this is going to be an exceptionally challenging year for our water supply,” Nathan Elder, manager of water supply for Denver, said at a Denver Board of Water Commissioners meeting.

“Snow pack levels are at historic lows and are melting earlier and more rapidly than normal.”

This graphic shows how much water is stored in mountain snowpack in 2025–2026 compared to previous years. Denver Water

Denver collects water from a 4,000-square-mile area across the state to serve 1.5 million people, but the rivers that feed the water supply have experienced record-low snowpack.

“Our Colorado River snow pack in our collection system is currently at 53% of normal. This is the lowest on record for the date,” Elder said during the meeting.

City officials warned that the snowpack, which contributes to the city’s water supply, has significantly decreased after a recent heatwave that pushed temperatures into the 80s in mid-March.

This graphic shows the drought conditions in Colorado on March 28, 2026. National Weather Service

The drought is currently affecting 3.6 million residents in Colorado, according to the National Weather Service’s Drought Monitor.

As of March 28, the Drought Monitor listed the Denver-metro area as under severe drought, while counties in the Rocky Mountains are under extreme and exceptional drought.

​According to the data, more than 74 percent of the state is in a drought.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 13:45

Dutch Treasury Banking Portal Goes Dark For 1,600 Public Institutions After Cyberattack

The Dutch Finance Ministry informed members of Parliament in a letter on Monday about "unauthorized access" to several of its banking systems, including the digital portal for treasury banking.

"Because of the ongoing forensic investigation and for security reasons, several systems have been temporarily taken offline, including the digital portal for treasury banking," Finance Minister Eelco Heinen wrote in the letter.

Heinen warned that the cyberattack has resulted in "around 1,600 public institutions that hold their funds with the Ministry of Finance" being "currently unable to view the balance of their treasury accounts digitally."

He continued, "Participants in treasury banking include, among others, ministries, agencies, legal entities with a statutory task, educational institutions, social funds, and decentralized governments."

"It is also temporarily not possible for participants to apply for loans, deposits, or credit facilities through the portal, change the intraday limit, or generate reports," Heinen warned.

Heinen admitted, "At this time, it is not yet known how long this situation will last."

He said investigations are ongoing in unison with the National Cyber Security Centre and other forensic security experts.

Heinen did not comment on who the responsible actor or actors were, or whether any ransom was involved.

To sum up, with the digital portal for treasury banking down, day-to-day cash management for a large swath of the Dutch public sector appears inaccessible at the moment.

So what happens if the portal stays offline long enough that the Dutch government cannot pay its bills?

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 13:25

UAE Will Be Pounded If US Invades, Iranian Officials Warn

Via Middle East Eye

Tehran believes the United Arab Emirates is playing an active role in the US-Israeli war on Iran and any ground invasion could lead to widespread attacks on Emirati state assets, two senior Iranian sources told Middle East Eye. A month into the conflict, which has battered global markets, Donald Trump is weighing whether to use ground troops to seize strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to stop Iran from disrupting energy supplies.

Attention has particularly focused on Kharg Island, the hub through which roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports flow, and Qashm Island which overlooks the strait. Such an operation would probably be launched from US bases in Gulf Arab states, which have come under Iranian attack in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which have killed at least 1,900 people so far.

Explosion in the Fujairah industrial zone from Iranian attack on UAE on March 3, via AFP.

Anti-Iranian sentiment has grown in Arab Gulf states, where retaliatory strikes have hit various targets, including key energy infrastructure. Combative rhetoric has particularly come from the close Israeli ally the UAE, whose ambassador to the US wrote a column in the Wall Street Journal this week saying a ceasefire would not be “enough” and the belligerents should push for a “conclusive outcome” that “addresses Iran’s full range of threats”.

The WSJ even reported that some Gulf Arab states were considering joining the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. However, according to a senior Iranian security official, leaders in Tehran now believe the UAE has played an active role in the war from the very beginning.

According to the official, the Iranian leadership has “decided to end a weeks-long period of tolerance towards Abu Dhabi, after concluding that the Emirati role went beyond simply hosting US military facilities already hit in Iranian retaliatory attacks”.

The official said: “Iranian intelligence believes the UAE also made some of its own air facilities available for operations against Iran.”

Abu Dhabi has served as an advanced platform for Israeli interests in the region, the official said. He suggested this included “deception operations” - false-flag Israeli attacks on Oman and at least one other country intended to look like Iranian ones.

He said Tehran assesses that “part of that cooperation has also involved the use of advanced AI infrastructure inside the UAE to support data collection and analysis for US and Israeli targeting, including information on Iranian figures and sites”.

The official added that attacks on Iranian vessels, small boats and coastal areas launched from UAE territory would now be considered by Tehran as a major escalation requiring a “strong response”.

Imminent attack

A separate senior Iranian diplomatic official told MEE that Tehran believes a US ground offensive may now be imminent. He said intelligence assessments - supported by information from Iran’s allied states, including Russia - increasingly point to a scenario in which an assault could be launched from the UAE.

Last week, Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30 percent of the world’s oil passed before the war. However, he has since twice delayed the promised attack, citing negotiations with Iran on a settlement that would end the bombing and allow oil to flow freely again.

The diplomat said Iran sees the current delay not as a genuine diplomatic pause, but as cover for the deployment of additional troops and preparations for a new phase of the war.

Reuters reported this week that the US is expected to send thousands more personnel to the Middle East, adding to the large American military presence already in the region. When the US and Israel on March 18 bombed South Pars gas field, one of the most important parts of Iranian infrastructure, Tehran responded by targeting energy facilities across the Gulf states.

Missiles and drones have also hit hotels, airports, data centers, ports and embassies in the region as the war has escalated. Yet the diplomat said Iran has so far deliberately avoided treating countries from which attacks were launched as fully enemy states.

“Iran carried out a deception in the skies over Dubai, costing the United Arab Emirates around $100 million.

Iran allegedly launched a missile equipped with flare decoys, prompting air defenses in Dubai to fire hundreds of interceptor missiles unnecessarily, reportedly depleting… pic.twitter.com/NHtdrdaz0t

— SilencedSirs◼️ (@SilentlySirs) March 29, 2026

For that reason, the diplomat said, Tehran confined itself to striking what it viewed as direct US military targets, or intelligence sites linked to the US and Israel, including some located inside civilian areas in countries such as the UAE and Bahrain.

That restraint, the diplomat warned, “would end immediately if any ground invasion takes place or if any part of Iranian territory or any of its islands becomes a target of a ground invasion”. Any country from which such an attack is launched would immediately be treated by Iran as an enemy, he said.

“Iranian strikes would no longer be limited to military or intelligence facilities but all state institutions and state-linked interests would become potential targets, including commercial and property assets in which the Emirati state holds investment stakes,” he said. “The previous rules will not hold if there is an invasion,” the diplomat added. “If any state participates in the occupation of even a single piece of Iranian land, that state will be dealt with as an aggressor.” This message, he said, has already been conveyed to the Emiratis.

*  *  * 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 13:05

Trump Signals Potential Military Action Coming Against Cuba

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump again suggested that U.S. military action could be coming against Cuba as his administration has placed economic pressure on the communist-ruled island nation.

U.S. President Donald Trump waves as he boards Air Force One at Pope Army Airfield at Fort Bragg, N.C., on Feb. 13, 2026, on his way to Palm Beach, Fla., to spend the weekend. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

“I built this great military. I said, ‘You’ll never have to use it.' ​But sometimes you have to use it. And Cuba is ​next by the way,” Trump said at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami Beach, Florida, on March 27. He then added: “But pretend I didn’t ‌say ⁠that. Pretend I didn’t.”

After that, Trump said, “Cuba’s next.”

DJT: “Cuba's next, by the way, but pretend I didn't say that, please.” pic.twitter.com/qcle0y75c6

— Bruce Snyder (@realBruceSnyder) March 27, 2026

The Trump administration has opened up negotiations with elements of Cuba’s leadership ​in recent weeks, and the president has previously hinted that military action could be possible.

Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel has acknowledged that the country is in talks with the U.S. military in a bid to avert potential military confrontation. Cuba’s economy has been battered ​by disruptions in ​oil imports, which ⁠it relies on to run power plants and transportation.

Díaz-Canel said in an address that the purpose of the talks was “to determine the willingness of both parties to take concrete actions for the benefit of the people of both countries,” coming after Cuba said it would release 51 people from prison.

Prior to the U.S. operation to capture then-Venezuelan regime leader Nicolás Maduro in January, Venezuela had ​provided much ⁠of Cuba’s oil needs, but Caracas’s new government has ended those shipments. Earlier in March, Trump had said Cuba ⁠may ​be subject to a “friendly takeover,” before ​saying, “It may not be a friendly takeover.”

“They have no money. They have no anything right now,” Trump also said outside the White House in February, referring to Cuba. “Maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.”

Trump has said that he would turn his attention to Cuba once the U.S. military operation in Iran is concluded.

“We could do them all at the same time,” Trump said in remarks on March 6. “But bad things happen. If you watch countries over the years, you do them all too fast, bad things happen.”

Cuba has been an adversary of the United States for decades, although there have been intermittent periods of engagement between the two countries. The United States has kept in place a trade embargo on the island for decades, prohibiting American businesses from engaging with Cuban interests, in part because the country held Soviet-made nuclear missiles during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Díaz-Canel, 65, took over as Cuba’s leader in 2021 after the resignation of 89-year-old Raul Castro, whose brother Fidel Castro had led the regime from 1959 until 2008. Fidel Castro died in 2016.

In January, Maduro was taken to the United States during the military operation, and he currently faces federal drug-related charges. During an initial court hearing in January, Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Since then, the U.S. government has moved to open up trade with Venezuela, including the easing of sanctions against the country’s state-run petroleum company earlier this month. The U.S. Treasury Department in February issued a license for the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves in Venezuela.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 12:25

Sony "Temporarily Suspends" Memory Card Orders In Japan As Global Memory Crunch Worsens

First, Sony hiked PlayStation console prices, blaming "continued pressures in the global economic landscape." Now, Sony Japan is warning that the global memory shortage has become severe enough to force a temporary halt to new orders for memory cards, as supply can no longer keep up with production needs.

"Due to the global shortage of semiconductors (memory) and other factors, it is anticipated that supply will not meet demand for CFexpress memory cards and SD memory cards for the foreseeable future," Sony wrote in a press release.

Sony explained that, due to the memory shortage, it has "decided to temporarily suspend the acceptance of orders from our authorized dealers and from customers at the Sony Store."

The suspension covers Sony's CFexpress Type A cards in 240GB, 480GB, 960GB, and 1.92TB sizes, as well as CFexpress Type B cards in 240GB and 480GB. It also affects Sony's high-end SDXC/SDHC lineup, including 64GB, 128GB, and 256GB TOUGH models, as well as SF-M and SF-E series cards ranging from 64GB to 512GB.

What this suggests is that even some of the largest consumer electronics companies are not immune to the global memory shortage, which is rippling across the world due to surging demand from data centers.

In February, TrendForce raised its Q1 2026 DRAM contract price forecast to 90%-95% quarter-over-quarter, while forecasting NAND flash prices would jump 55%-60% over the same period. Phison's CEO warned the NAND shortage could force some consumer electronics companies to shutter production lines this year. 

Last week, Sony was forced to raise prices on PlayStation consoles, which infuriated some gamers.

"Hot take but I think things should get cheaper the more old that they are, crazy idea," one X user said.

We told readers in late January: "If you want to buy any consumer goods, PCs, or smartphones ... do it now, as it is for sure all the prices will be increased. Take an average PC, for example. The ratio of memory chips in the BoM [bill of materials] cost has increased from some 15% to almost 40%."

There is hope: We detailed last week that "Google's DeepSeek Moment," introducing TurboQuant, sent memory stocks spiraling lower because its compression algorithm for large language models and vector search engines shrinks the amount of memory needed (report here).

*  *  * With all this creatine malarkey, don't forget about SURVIVAL

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 11:25

Dallas Fed Mfg Activity Holds Near One Year High Despite Plunge In Respondent Sentiment On Iran War

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index continues to straddle the unchanged line, and despite a tiny dip from 0.2 in February, the highest print since July, to -0.2 in March, just below the 1.5 median estimate, the index remained near the highest level in a year and absent a modest and brief, post-Trump election spike, this remains one of the highest prints since mid-2022.

Curiously, the headline index barely dropped even though most index components (9 out of 12) showed a sharp decline, with just a handful rising fractionally.

But it was the survey responses that showed a decidedly negative view on the economy, except for respondents in Machinery Manufacturing. Below is a snapshot from the latest survey:

Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing

• We have seen decreases in some of our costs, in particular agricultural raw materials. We have seen increases in the costs of our packaging materials, some of this related to increase in energy costs. We expect the Iran war to cause increases in energy costs for a period extending at least six months and potentially longer. This has increased our uncertainty for the rest of the year.

Chemical manufacturing

• The Iran war and bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz has caused significant supply chain disruption from China, allowing the U.S. chemicals sector to benefit from the supply bottleneck. We believe this to be short-lived and the situation to return to the lower demand levels in the latter half of 2026.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

• I am thinking about recommending to our board to close the company.
• We have seen no impact yet from higher fuel prices. However, we expect to see this very soon, as our vendors will increase raw materials prices to include the increased cost for transportation.
• We would like to see lower interest rates throughout this year.

Food manufacturing

• Continuing confusion at the federal level, illiquid consumer base and falling federal government spending are not helping the food industry.
• High density Hispanic channels are down. Costs are up, and freight is increasing fast. Tariff chaos has wreaked havoc with all of our export customers and seasoning suppliers.
• We are worried about costs increasing due to fuel price increases. We are worried about a slowdown in the economy due to geopolitics.

Furniture and related product manufacturing

• The Iran war and impact on energy prices are concerns as consumers have to deal with the rapid increase in energy cost. Hopefully it will moderate as the conflict curtails. That said, the more demoralizing impact of the constant circus out of Washington and inability to fund critical infrastructure like TSA is killing the animal spirits of our economy.

Machinery manufacturing

• We are beating our competition due to the continued vertical integration plans that we are focused on implementing and improving. This requires a great deal of planning and money, but the payout is very sound.
• Spring has sprung. It’s truly like the balm of Gilead. After an extended period of ailment and woe, the healing has occurred and we are on our way to greater things.  Our business growth thus far in 2026 is like a sweet fragrance that is healing our loss and hardship from prior years.
• We are still seeing strong business activity with our backlog increasing.
• Our company is seeing an increase in activity totally unrelated to the current geopolitical conditions. The effect of uncertainty delayed the start of a new manufacturing project in the U.S. (tariffs, capital expenditures) in 2025. Project 2025 is underway with a six-month delay and scaled back to accommodate a less ambitious picture for 2026. We are still recovering from 2025 plus a more conservative outlook for 2026. Things are trending upward in our field but at a much slower pace.

Miscellaneous manufacturing

• Many external factors contributing to an unstable market.
• If we could get our tariff reimbursement back, that would put us in a position to invest in growth. Without it, though, we don't have the capital to invest in growth.

Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing

• We are waiting for home building activity to pick up, which is dependent upon interest rates.

Paper manufacturing

• Overall business still slow. Have achieved limited price reductions in some raw materials that are in an oversupply condition but not enough to keep up with the decline in selling prices of our products. We still see upward pressure on labor and benefits cost. Margins are reduced from 12 months ago.

Plastics and rubber products manufacturing

• Importing from China is precarious. The costs of product and freight are higher and slower. Suppliers are apprehensive. Their costs are increasing, especially a certain raw material plastic impacted by petrochemicals affected by cost of oil.

Printing and related support activities

• We have been stupid slow recently, slower than we can recall in many years. We continue to believe it’s from the chaos and confusion coming out of Washington. In addition, now with the Iran war, prices are going to shoot up due to shipping costs, and tariffs are still in effect. So, there is no telling when business will start to improve. We have some nice work coming in soon, but it's work we knew was coming.  We are seeing some improvement in our estimating backlog, which is a good sign of better days to come. The war is causing a disruption of raw materials prices as we are producing plastic-based products, virtually all of our raw materials are hydrocarbon based. Fifteen percent increases are normal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 11:15

Iran Alleges Series Of 'False Flags' - Including On Kuwait Water Plant - Designed To Perpetuate War

Via The Cradle

The Iranian military denied on Monday being behind the recent attack which hit a desalination plant in Kuwait, labeling the strike a US-Israeli false-flag operation aimed at "destabilizing and destroying the region."

"The brutal aggression by the Zionist regime against the desalination facility in Kuwait, carried out in recent hours under the pretext of accusing the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a sign of the vileness and depravity of the Zionist occupiers," the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Iranian army said in a statement.

via AFP

"We declare that US bases, personnel, and their interests in the region, as well as the military, security, and economic infrastructure of the Zionist regime in the occupied Palestinian territories, remain powerful targets for us," it added. 

The Iranian military went on to urge "countries of West Asia must remain vigilant against the sedition of the US–Zionist axis aimed at destabilizing and destroying the region."

Regional states "must put an end to the presence of the criminal US army and occupying Zionists in the region," it stressed. The attack on the desalination plant took place on Sunday. 

"A service building at a power and water desalination plant was attacked as part of the Iranian aggression against the State of Kuwait, resulting in the death of an Indian worker and significant material damage to the building," said a spokesperson for the Kuwaiti Electricity Ministry.

This is not the first attack Tehran has labeled a false flag. Iran has also denied recent strikes on fuel tankers in Oman and a refinery in Iraq's Erbil, as well as one that targeted an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia at the start of the month. 

US journalist Tucker Carlson reported earlier in March that Mossad agents were detained in Gulf states for planning bombings.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on March 15 that the US has been using its new Lucas drone – modeled after the Iranian Shahed – to carry out false-flag attacks in the region and attribute them to the Islamic Republic. 

Tehran has said only US and Israeli-linked military and economic assets in the Gulf will be struck by its forces. Iran is warning Gulf governments against allowing Washington to use their bases for attacks on the Islamic Republic. 

Iranian drone and missile strikes targeted the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, wounding at least 12 US troops and damaging aircraft and buildings.

A senior Iranian intelligence official told The Cradle on March 26 that the Islamic Republic is preparing a "strong response" against the UAE due to the “active role” it has played in the US-Israeli war on it.

Roughly 90% of Kuwait's drinking water comes from desalination.

"A decision has been made at the leadership level to end the weeks-long tolerance toward this country. In addition to US military barracks and bases in the UAE, which were targeted in Iran's defensive attacks, the Emiratis also provided some of their own air bases to the US to be used in attacking Iran," the intelligence officials went on to say, citing security reports. 

"The UAE is considered a foothold for Israel in the region," the source continued, adding that Abu Dhabi has "carried out misleading operations against Oman and other countries" – likely a reference to false-flag operations pinned on Iran.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 11:05

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Speaks At Harvard University

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has just over a month left in his tenure as head of the world's most important central bank, speaks at 10:30am ET to the Harvard University Principles of Economics class. He is not expected to make monetary policy comments. 

As CNBC notes, this will be one of Powell’s final scheduled public appearances before his term ends in May. The discussion comes with markets anticipating the central bank will be on hold regarding interest rates through the end of the year.

In his most recent comments, Powell characterized the economy as growing at “a solid pace” and said he is not concerned with worries of stagflation, low growth with high inflation. However, he noted that policymakers are taking a cautious approach as multiple factors play out this year, including the Iran war, tariffs and a stagnant labor market; he flagged frustration over sticky non-housing services and made clear that, if inflation progress does not resume, cuts will not follow.

On rates, Powell kept optionality but did not open the door to near-term easing. He said policy was in a good place, noting it was around the high end of neutral, or only modestly restrictive. He said the labour market was being watched closely, particularly weak private payroll growth, but stopped short of suggesting employment risks now dominate the Fed’s policy balance.

On his role as Fed Chair, Powell said that if a successor had not been confirmed before his term as Chair ends in May, he would remain in place as Fed Chair "Pro Tern"; on his role as Governor beyond that, he said he has no intention of leaving the Board until the DoJ investigation is over, and he he had not yet decided whether he would stay on.

Powell’s term ends officially on May 15, and there is only one more policy meeting between now and then. However, it’s possible he will stay in the position longer if the Senate does not confirm is designated successor, former Governor Kevin Warsh.

Watch live:

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 10:30

Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll For 2028 GOP Presidential Nominee

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Vice President JD Vance is the leading candidate to take the Republican nomination for president in 2028, according to a straw poll taken at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on March 28.

Vice President JD Vance waves as he departs Air Force Two at Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport in Elm City, N.C., on March 13, 2026. Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

Vance received 53 percent of the support of the people who attended the annual conference in Grapevine, Texas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in second place at 35 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. came in at 2 percent each. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott all had 1 percent support.

The poll was announced at the end of the four-day CPAC conference.

In 2025, Vance won the CPAC straw poll for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, receiving 61 percent support, and Steve Bannon took second place at 12 percent.

Vance also holds a big lead in the RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire’s 2028 Republican presidential primary polls conducted in February 2026 and March 2026. Vance leads those polls at 47.3 percent, and Rubio is second at 17.3 percent. They are followed by former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 6.7 percent and DeSantis at 5.3 percent.

A presidential matchup between President Donald Trump and Haley had overwhelmingly favored Trump in CPAC’s February 2024 straw poll.

According to the poll, 94 percent of respondents said they would support Trump if a Republican primary were held that day, compared with 5 percent for Haley. Only 1 percent said they were undecided.

Trump is not eligible to run for president in 2028. The president did not attend the 2026 CPAC conference.

The recent CPAC straw poll supports earlier polling that had Vance as the leading candidate.

A September 2025 poll from YouGov showed Vance with a commanding early lead in the 2028 Republican presidential field. The survey had Vance as the top choice with 44 percent of Republican respondents, far ahead of any other potential candidate.

The rest of the field trailed in single digits; Trump Jr. drew about 10 percent, followed by DeSantis at roughly 8 percent and Rubio near 4 percent.

Vance talked to Fox News host Sean Hannity in November 2025 about running against Rubio in a presidential election.

In a segment that was aired separately from the full interview, Hannity said Rubio was Vance’s “best friend” in the administration, and Vance agreed.

“People have asked me, ‘Do you see Marco as a rival?’“ Vance said. ”First of all, if either one of us end up running, it’s a long ways in the future and none of us are entitled to it. It would be ridiculous for me to say, ‘Marco is a rival.’ No. No. No. Marco is a colleague.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 10:25

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Payrolls, PMI, ISM, Retail Sales And Fed Speech

Looking at the week ahead, we should start to learn about the economic consequences of the conflict, as several data releases for March are out which cover the period since the strikes began on February 28.

In the US, that includes the monthly jobs report on Friday - which falls on a Holday when stocks are closed, while bonds are open for half a day -  where economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by +60k in March. As a reminder, US payrolls have been pretty choppy in recent months, and on the current series of revisions they’ve been oscillating between positive and negative readings for every month since May. Last month they were down -92k, but some of that weakness was a function of a strike at a major healthcare company that’s since ended, along with severe weather that may have temporarily depressed February’s payrolls. So while DB economists are expecting a positive payrolls print for March, they think the unemployment rate will round up to 4.5% given how close it was last month (4.44%).

Otherwise in the US, the focus will be on whether higher oil prices have started to impact business sentiment and inflation in a meaningful way. So the ISM manufacturing will be in the spotlight, including the prices paid component for whether the inflationary impact has started to filter through. Before that, we’ll also get the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading tomorrow.

Speaking of inflation, the main highlight in Europe will be tomorrow’s flash CPI print for the Euro Area, which is an important one as the ECB work out what to do. To be fair, the flash print from Spain last Friday was weaker than expected, at +3.3% (vs. +3.8% expected), so that’s slightly eased fears about a very strong print tomorrow. Nevertheless, even with the Spanish number, DB's European economists are still tracking the Euro Area CPI print at +2.53% year-on-year, up from +1.89% in February, a number which was reinforced with today's regional German CPI update for March. 

Elsewhere this week, there isn’t too much on the calendar of events as we move towards Easter. Indeed, markets will be closed in several countries at the end of the week for Good Friday. However, we will hear from a few central bankers, including Fed Chair Powell later today, who’s speaking in a discussion at Harvard University.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 30

• Data: US March Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, February net consumer credit, M4, Germany March CPI, Italy February PPI, Eurozone March economic confidence
• Central banks: Fed’s Powell and Williams speak, ECB’s Stournaras speaks

Tuesday March 31

• Data: US March Conference Board consumer confidence index, MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed services activity, February JOLTS report, January FHFA house price index, China March official PMIs, UK Q4 current account balance, Japan March Tokyo CPI, February jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany March unemployment claims rate, February retail sales, import price index, France March CPI, February PPI, consumer spending, Italy March CPI, January industrial sales, Eurozone March CPI, Canada January GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Goolsbee, Barr and Bowman speak, ECB’s Panetta, Muller, Sleijpen and Kazimir speak, RBA minutes of the March meeting
• Earnings: Nike
• Other: French President Macron visiting Japan, through April 2

Wednesday April 1

• Data: US March ISM index, ADP report, total vehicle sales, February retail sales, January business inventories, China March RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Japan BoJ’s Tankan survey, Italy March manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, February unemployment rate, Eurozone February unemployment rate, Canada March manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Musalem and Barr speak, ECB’s Cipollone speaks, BoC’s summary of deliberations

Thursday April 2

• Data: US February trade balance, initial jobless claims, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance, Italy February retail sales, Canada February international merchandise trade, Switzerland March CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s economic bulletin, BoE’s DMP survey

Friday April 3

• Data: US March jobs report, China March RatingDog services PMI, France February industrial production
• Central banks: ECB’s Radev speaks
• Other: Good Friday

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Chair Powell and New York Fed President Williams on Monday. 

Monday, March 30 

• 10:30 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University. Moderated and audience Q&A are expected. On March 18th, Chair Powell said that the risks to employment and inflation are on an equal footing, saying that he would “be hard-pressed to say that one of them is obviously more at risk than the other.” He added that he takes seriously the risk from the oil price shock to inflation expectations against a backdrop where inflation has been high for five years. In light of this, he said, “the framework calls to balance the risks,” and a “mildly restrictive” stance or the “higher borderline of restrictive versus not restrictive” is “the right place to be.”
• 04:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the Staten Island Economic Development Corporation. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On March 3rd, President Williams said that “monetary policy is currently well positioned to support the stabilization of the labor market and return inflation to our 2% goal,” adding that “in recent months there have been promising signs of stabilization in the labor market.”

Tuesday, March 31 

• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%) 
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, March (GS 86.5, consensus 88.0, last 91.2)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, February (GS 7,000k, consensus 6,890k, last 6,946k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged month-over-month in February at 7.0mn based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp. Since the end of February, those measures have declined by roughly 2% on average.
• 12:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give opening remarks at a Chicago Fed Mobility Project virtual event. On March 24th, President Goolsbee said that “we could be back to the environment with multiple rate cuts for the year, if inflation behaves,” but added that “I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way and inflation was getting out of control.”
• 03:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss stablecoin regulation at a Federalist Society virtual event. Speech text and moderated and audience Q&A are expected. On March 26th, Governor Barr said that “given the considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on our economy, as well as other factors, it makes sense to take some time to assess conditions,” adding that “our current policy stance puts us in a good place to hold steady while we evaluate the incoming data.”
• 05:10 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on small businesses at the 2026 Consumer Bankers Association Live conference in San Diego. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On March 20th, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said that she has “written three cuts before the end of 2026 to hopefully support the labor market,” and noted that “it is too soon to tell what the impacts of the conflict with Iran will be.”

Wednesday, April 1 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, March (GS +40k, consensus +40k, last +63k)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, February (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, February (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.5% in February (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting solid alternative data. We estimate headline retail sales increased 0.6%, reflecting a rebound in auto sales.
• 09:05 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the economy and monetary policy at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected.
• 09:10 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss AI and consumer issues at the National Fair Housing Alliance symposium in Washington, DC. Moderated Q&A is expected.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 52.4, last 52.4)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, March (GS 53.0, consensus 52.4, last 52.4): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.6pt to 53.0 in March, reflecting sequential improvement in regional manufacturing surveys but a slight headwind from potential residual seasonality. Our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.1pt to 53.6.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, March (GS 16.0mn, consensus 15.9mn, last 15.8mn)

Thursday, April 2 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$50.0bn, consensus -$60.0bn, last -$54.5bn): We forecast that the trade deficit narrowed by $4.5bn to $50.0bn in February, reflecting an increase in gold exports that was partially offset by an increase in goods imports from China.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 28 (GS 205k, consensus 212k, last 210k):  Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 21 (consensus 1,830k, last 1,819k)

Friday, April 3 

• US equity markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday, while SIFMA recommends an early close at 12 PM for the bond market.
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +70k, consensus +60k, last -92k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +75k, consensus +70k, last -86k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 4.4%, consensus 4.4%, last 4.4%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 70k in March. On the positive side, we expect a 32k boost from the end of worker strikes and a moderate tailwind from sequentially better weather after it likely weighed on February payroll growth. The big data indicators we track were mixed in March. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.4% in March, reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims over the last month. That said, the bar for rounding up to 4.5% is not high from an unrounded 4.44% in February. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in March, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, March final (consensus 51.1, last 51.1)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/30/2026 - 10:15