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Hormuz In The Rearview As Asia-US Ocean Container Rates Soar Past $7,900

Hormuz In The Rearview As Asia-US Ocean Container Rates Soar Past $7,900

By Stuart Chirls of AmericanShipper

The container shipping market is being driven by geopolitics, rates, and network reshuffling, but freight-rate volatility and adjustments by carriers to protect schedules and pricing has supplanted Middle East disruptions as top-level concerns.

Asia-U.S. West Coast prices increased 8% to $6,175 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU), according to Freightos, a data contributor to SONAR ocean market data.

Prices for Asia-U.S. East Coast transportation also rose 8%, to $7,998 per FEU.

SONAR‘s Ocean Supply/Demand Index reflects the surge in trans-Pacific demand, having recovered to year-ago levels

Iran has escalated steps to assert sole authority over vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, writes Freightos Research Head Judah Levine, in a note to clients, even as it negotiates with the United States over terms of a final peace deal.

"Oil volumes out of the Gulf states are rebounding, though marine traffic was paused … following Iranian strikes on transiting vessels and sites in Bahrain and Kuwait,” Levine said. 

The United Nations abandoned ship evacuations after Tehran attacked a Mediterranean Shipping Co. vessel transiting a non-approved route.

As crude oil flows from the Persian Gulf resume, surging peak season demand – and not oil prices – are driving elevated container rates.

“The early start to this year’s peak has sent rates spiking on the main east-west lanes since mid-May,” Levine said, “with carriers shifting capacity from secondary lanes to service this demand, contributing to rate increases on secondary trades too.”

Zim recently launched a new Asia–East Coast South America service, while Hapag-Lloyd updated service rotations. Broader growth across fleets and new vessel orders with shipyards continues, suggesting carriers are still trying to balance network expansion with an increasingly uneven demand amid geopolitical events.

Since mid-May trans-Pacific prices to the U.S. West Coast have climbed 120%, and by 85% to East Coast gateways. By comparison, Asia-North Europe rates are up 70% in that time, and 85% to the Mediterranean.

In a remarkable show of importer confidence in projected consumer spending, “[t]rans-Pacific East Coast rates are now $1,000/FEU higher than last year’s frontloading-driven summer high,” wrote Levine, “with West Coast prices just above their 2025 peak. Europe and Mediterranean rates are $1,300- and $3,000/ per FEU above their 2025 peak season highs, respectively.

The National Retail Federation said 32% of surveyed consumers had started their back-to-school shopping in June, up from 26% in 2025, an indicator for retail spending later in the year.

The surge is delaying traffic at major hubs in South Asia, the Far East and Europe, shrinking available capacity and contributing to upward pressure on rates, Levine said.

The early rush is likely underpinned by an array of factors, from frontloading ahead of carrier fuel surcharges and manufacturer price increases, as well as approaching U.S. tariff deadlines.

“If enough shippers are indeed pulling peak season volumes forward, we could expect the early start to mean an early peak season unwind as well, possibly some time in July,” Levine said.

Volume strength may stretch on a little longer than many shippers may have preferred due to delays at congested ports, he added. “Carriers are set to introduce more rate increases to start July, so the degree of success carriers have with these price hikes should reflect where the market is in terms of this year’s peak-season peak.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 14:25

Xbox Hit With 3,000 Layoffs After CEO Warns Business Is "Not Healthy"

Xbox Hit With 3,000 Layoffs After CEO Warns Business Is "Not Healthy"

Xbox CEO Asha Sharma issued a dire warning to staff on Monday: "Our business today is not healthy. We must reset Xbox."

Sharma's memo, first published on the Xbox website, announced cuts of 3,200 jobs tied to Microsoft's Xbox division, or equal to about 20% of staff, as deteriorating margins and disappointing Game Pass subscriptions have forced the unit into a major restructuring effort.

The 3,200-job reduction will be split into two waves: the first 1,600 layoffs will begin this week, with another 1,600 occurring over the rest of the fiscal year, according to the memo.

Last month, Sharma told employees in another memo that Xbox's "accountability margin," the metric Microsoft uses to reflect profit margin, had slipped to 3% and that annual revenue had tumbled to alarmingly low levels. "Going forward, this cannot continue," she wrote then.

The CEO said:

After careful consideration, I've made the difficult decision to reduce our team by approximately 3,200 throughout FY27. This will include approximately 1,600 role eliminations today, and in addition, four studios will leave XBOX to new management. I recognize that a year-long restructuring creates additional challenges. Unfortunately, it is not possible to make all the necessary changes in a single day, and I wanted to be direct about the scale.

. . .

Our business today is not healthy. We are operating on margins that are 3-10x lower than those of comparable platform and publishing businesses. We entered Gen 9 with a smaller install base and a higher cost structure. To grow, we bet on Game Pass, multi-platform, and a broader portfolio of content. While those businesses have created meaningful value, they did not grow at the pace we expected. As that happened, our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome. And now the industry is facing the most severe hardware crisis in its history. We must reset XBOX.

She provided color on restructuring across Xbox's content portfolio:

Since 2018, we have aggressively expanded our studio portfolio while the number of games created each month across the industry now outpaces the last ten years combined. We now find ourselves competing not only with the largest publishers, but also with smaller independent studios. It is neither possible nor desirable to own every great independent studio. We have also learned that we are not the best home for every type of studio; in a typical year, we lost 64 cents for every dollar we invested. As we reset XBOX, we will help independent creators succeed by providing open development tools and audiences to realize their vision.

Compulsion Games and Double Fine Productions will return to management and transition to independent studios with their IP, catalog, and runway for their next games. Ninja Theory and Undead Labs have entered terms to join new ownership with funding to complete and grow Senua and State of Decay 3. In France, Arkane's management is beginning required consultation with its Works Council to review potential strategic options.

We are also making reductions across other units, and in some cases, shifting investment to focus on higher priority projects. These changes vary in size across Activision, Bethesda/ZeniMax, Blizzard, King, Mojang, and XBOX Game Studios. None of our first party publicly announced games or projects are being cancelled as part of these reductions.

In addition, Mojang and King will now report directly to me. These two studios have increasingly become platforms and are our largest by monthly active players. They bring critical geographic, demographic, and differentiation to XBOX.

The changes at Xbox come as the broader video game industry remains stuck in a post-pandemic slump. Compounding the pressure is the memory-chip squeeze, fueled by AI data-center demand, which has pushed console production costs higher and forced both Xbox and PlayStation prices to climb.

The release of GTA VI, now about 135 days away, cannot come soon enough. WallStreet analysts expect the blockbuster launch to drive a new wave of console demand and potentially produce some tailwinds for the struggling gaming industry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 12:25

New Jersey Lawmakers Pass Bill To Establish Large Load Data Center Tariff

New Jersey Lawmakers Pass Bill To Establish Large Load Data Center Tariff

By Zachary Skidmore of DataCenterDynamics

New Jersey lawmakers have passed a bill that will direct the state's Board of Public Utilities (PUC) to establish a dedicated data center tariff for facilities with a capacity of 50MW or more, in an attempt to shield other ratepayers from cost increases tied to new builds.

A similar bill was originally proposed in June of last year by Democratic assemblymen Dave Bailey and Joe Danielsen. However, that initial bill was pocket-vetoed by then-governor Phil Murphy, who did not sign it before his term ended.

CoreSite’s NY3 data center is located in Secaucus and offers more than 138,000 square feet of capacity.CoreSite

Following the veto, the bill was replaced with S731, which proposed broader protections than the previous bill. It will now head to Democratic governor Mikie Sherrill for final approval. Assemblyman David Bailey Jr. said Sherrill's office was involved in drafting the latest version and expressed optimism she would sign it.

The new bill is broader than the previously vetoed bill, applying to both existing and new facilities, and lowering the threshold from 100MW. It also aggregates facilities that are under common ownership or on contiguous sites, treating them as a single large data center for purposes of the threshold.

Other provisions in the bill include requiring data centers to demonstrate their project is not proposed elsewhere to avoid speculative applications, providing financial guarantees to take or pay for at least 85 percent of the requested service for ten years, and committing to demand response and flexibility programs. In addition, the bill mandates that large data center customers be curtailed before residential customers during grid emergencies.

It will also require the PUC to prioritize interconnection for data centers that make binding commitments to bring their own clean generation or storage.

The bill is the latest to be passed within a state legislature, with several already enshrined in law, and many others currently making their way through the approval process.

Last month, regulators in Oregon approved a new rate class for data centers and other large loads, which is now in effect.

Before this, Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, signed into law a new bill aimed at protecting ratepayers in the state from rising utility and infrastructure costs associated with data centers. This closely followed Florida, whose governor signed into law a similar bill that prohibited utilities from passing data center infrastructure costs on to residential and small-business ratepayers and required large-scale users to bear their full cost of service.

Other states to see similar rules proposed and passed include Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia, to name a few.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 12:05

Truck Driver Accused Of Using Fake Documents To Steal $2.9 Million Cargo

Truck Driver Accused Of Using Fake Documents To Steal $2.9 Million Cargo

By Phil Bring of FreightWaves

Police in Greenfield, Indiana, arrested a California truck driver after officers recovered nearly $2.9 million worth of tungsten oxide powder that police said thieves stole during a cargo theft in Pennsylvania.

According to a June 28 news release from the Greenfield Police Department, officers received an alert around 6 a.m. Saturday regarding a wanted semi tractor-trailer traveling eastbound on Interstate 70 into Hancock County. Police said the truck was connected to a cargo theft that occurred in Pennsylvania on June 25. Officers located the truck and trailer just west of the Greenfield exit at mile marker 104, confirmed the information and conducted a traffic stop.

Police identified the driver as 31-year-old Deepak Kumar of Fresno, California. Authorities said Kumar used fraudulent documents to obtain a load of nearly 40,000 pounds of tungsten oxide powder. Police valued the shipment at $2,857,500 and said it was headed to Mitsubishi Materials Corporation in Japan.

Deepak Kumar, 31, of Fresno, California, was arrested June 27 after Greenfield police recovered a shipment of tungsten oxide powder valued at about $2.9 million. Police said Kumar faces theft-related charges in Pennsylvania. Source: Greenfield Police Department

Greenfield police arrested Kumar at the scene on an active arrest warrant issued by the state of Pennsylvania. According to police, the warrant charges Kumar with theft by unlawful taking of movable property and criminal use of a communication facility.

Officers transported Kumar to the Hancock County Jail following the arrest. Police said the Hancock County Prosecutor’s Office will determine whether Kumar will face criminal charges in Indiana related to the traffic stop and evidence recovered during the subsequent search warrant.

Police said officers impounded the truck and trailer through Inman’s Towing of Greenfield following the traffic stop. Investigators held both as evidence while they requested a search warrant. After a judge issued the warrant, officers searched the trailer and confirmed it contained the reported stolen cargo.

According to police, a representative of Mitsubishi Materials Corporation traveled to Greenfield on Sunday and took possession of the recovered shipment.

The Greenfield Police Department has not identified the Pennsylvania business where investigators allege the cargo theft occurred. Authorities also have not released additional information describing the fraudulent documents investigators said Kumar used to obtain the cargo.

Police have not identified additional suspects or released court documents describing the alleged cargo theft. The department said the Hancock County Prosecutor’s Office will determine whether Kumar will face additional criminal charges in Indiana related to the traffic stop and the evidence recovered during the search warrant.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 11:25

Saudi Arabia Sells Oil At A Discount For The First Time Since COVID Crash, As China Demand Collapses

Saudi Arabia Sells Oil At A Discount For The First Time Since COVID Crash, As China Demand Collapses

We previously discussed the unprecedented collapse observed in recent months in Chinese oil demand and imports, which led to the bizarre scenario where even Iran can't find buyers (read China) for its temporarily unsanctioned oil armada (see "Iran Runs Into Big Problem: No Buyers For Its Oil, As Full Tankers Pile Up Off China") and which prompted even JPM to point out that something bigger is going on behind the scenes.

Understandably, with such a huge source of demand sidelined, today Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia has made big reductions to its main crude oil prices for buyers in Asia, selling barrels at a discount for the first time since it embarked on a price war in 2020, as a surge of global supply heightens competition to find buyers.

State producer Saudi Aramco will lower Arab Light oil for next month by $11 a barrel to a $1.50 discount over the regional benchmark, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. The last two times it sold the grade at a discount were during price wars in 2020 and 2015.

The large drop in prices, the biggest in at least 26 years, follows a surge at the height of the Iran war when the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz restricted the kingdom’s flows; it is also bigger than the $8 decline expected in a Bloomberg survey.

The surprise price cut underscores the surging volumes of oil that are now available on global markets, as the interim US-Iran peace deal enables Gulf producers to ramp up exports at the same time as a flood of trapped barrels escape through the Strait of Hormuz. The size of the cutback also raises questions whether other Middle East producers might be forced into steeper cuts to their prices as they compete for customers (mostly China, as India is quite happy importing cheap Russian oil) that are inundated with supply.

Aramco’s August prices are for buyers who purchase crude on long-term contracts, the main way in which the kingdom markets its barrels. Some traders who spoke to Bloomberg said even with such a large reduction, the barrels are more expensive than spot supplies from other regional producers that are available for immediate purchase on an adhoc basis.

According to Bloomberg, official prices from other producers in the region are expected to be released in the coming days.

Oil has plunged since the agreement between US and Iran came into effect in the middle of June, allowing traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, the key chokepoint that had been largely blocked since the start of hostilities. Brent crude has given up all its wartime gains, and was trading below $72 a barrel on Tuesday.

Before the war, Saudi Arabia loaded most of its crude from within the Persian Gulf. However, Aramco diverted a chunk of those flows to its Red Sea facility at Yanbu as the war effectively blocked Hormuz. The kingdom made the rare move of selling some cargoes on a so-called spot basis in recent days, as it got resumed flows of shipments that had been trapped inside the Persian Gulf.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 11:10

When A Toll Isn't A Toll

When A Toll Isn't A Toll

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

When A Toll Isn't A Toll

Yields on 10-year Treasuries finished last week up 11bps to 4.48% while yields on 10-year Bunds rose 8.5bps to 2.93%. Those higher borrowing costs came despite signs of weakening in the US jobs market, a weaker-than-expected prices paid figure on the ISM manufacturing index, and a surprisingly weak Eurozone CPI inflation report that follows in the wake of lower than expected inflation readings in the UK.

Market-based expectations of the future path of the Fed Funds rate finished the week a little lower than it started, with pricing of a future rate hike pushed out from October to December. 2-year Treasury yields fell by almost 4bps on Thursday after the payrolls report confirmed hiring in June was little better than half the expected figure.

This was still enough for the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.2% as a lower participation rate saw the labor force contract. Nevertheless, 2-year yields were higher across the week as sovereign curves bear-steepened.

Brent crude posted its first weekly gain in almost a month last week to see the front contract close up 0.18% at $72.12/bbl. The gains appear to have been short-lived as news of continued tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a decision by OPEC+ over the weekend to ease production restrictions by 188,000 barrels/day from August steer the price action lower this morning. Announcements of increased production are all well and good, but when much of that production is occurring in the Persian Gulf or in Russia (where Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure are ongoing) the ability to actually ship the product to market will remain the critical limiting factor.

On that note, official figures show that Hormuz traffic is back to approximately 30% of pre-war levels, though this likely understates the true picture as many vessels are transiting dark (i.e. without their tracking systems on) to avoid the attentions of Iran’s IRGC. Bloomberg reports that six vessels transited the route closest to the Omani coastline under US auspices on Sunday without incident. That follows reports of up to eight vessels performing u-turns (with some later being redirected through the Iranian route) after attempting to transit close to Oman on Friday and Saturday.

Updated data from Kpler and Vortexa shows that crude exports from the UAE surged in June to exceed pre-war levels and approach record highs. The UAE’s recent decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is considered bearish over the longer term for energy prices as a diminished share of potential production is subject to non-market constraints.

On the other hand, Iran again indicated over the weekend that it will be instituting “service fees” on vessels transiting Hormuz through its territorial waters once the 60-day negotiating period kicked-off by the signing of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding expires. According to Iran’s ambassador to China a new fee regime is being designed in consultation with Oman and will include “special considerations” for China and other friendly nations in determining the level and type of fee applied. According to the ambassador, this is not a toll. This might prove be a convenient fiction for all parties given President Trump’s unyielding view that a permanent toll regime would not be acceptable after the 60-day negotiating period expires.

Critically, what this little titbit sets up is exactly the type of scenario we have been pointing towards for some time: the ‘oil market’ splitting into ‘oil markets’ with terms over pricing and access being determined by which geopolitical camp you happen to sit in, and a series of quid pro quos informing the deal that each party gets.

The prime movers here are the United States and China, with Iran having clearly chosen China and the UAE hitching its wagon to the US of A. An easy tell that this scenario is playing out will be pressure from Iran to have other Gulf producers accept a toll that isn’t a toll, and/or have their cargoes priced in CNY rather than USD. The USA, similarly, will pressure Gulf allies to price in Dollars and normalize relations with Israel to expand the Abraham Accords and have oil flow from east to west to cut out Iran entirely and demonstrate to China that Uncle Sam can step on the hose whenever he likes.

Europe and the balance of Asia are likely to be reduced to the role of spectators in these affairs. Highlighting the weakness of Europe’s current position in the Great Game, the Wall Street Journal carried a story last week on how the German Mittelstand is being decimated by state-backed Chinese competition, with the most energy-exposed sectors of the manufacturing economy faring particularly badly.

To a certain extent, the hollowing out of German industry at the hands of China mirrors the hollowing-out of British finance at the hands of the United States as more and more firms choose to list in New York in pursuit of higher multiples or are bought-up as value picks. This has elicited a response from the British Government in the form of the Mansion House compact aimed at encouraging pension funds to hold more British assets. If that fails, will the discussion then turn to capital controls under an Andy Burnham premiership?

Similarly, the rapid decline of the German Mittelstand will almost certainly elicit further protectionist measures from officials in Brussels who have just spent the last 18 months and more criticizing Washington for taking similar steps to protect American industry. In the absence of a hold-your-nose peace accord with Russia to reduce energy costs that will almost certainly not happen, what is Europe’s grand macro strategy to avoid being de-industrialised by China and vassalized by US energy and finance?

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:15

Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report

Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report

Germany was once the industrial engine of Europe, but years of disastrous climate change policies, high energy costs, and left-wing economic mismanagement have battered its manufacturing base. This pressure has been roiling the country's auto industry, where struggling carmakers are restructuring operations through workforce reductions, production cuts, and capacity reductions.

Germany's top financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, reports that Porsche is preparing another round of deep job cuts at its main factories as the sports car maker grapples with weak demand.

The company is considering eliminating as many as 4,000 additional jobs at its Zuffenhausen plant, the outlet said, citing people familiar with the matter. These reductions would come on top of previously agreed cuts impacting 3,900 jobs.

Porsche's Zuffenhausen plant in Stuttgart is home to the brand's core sports car production lines, including the 911, 718, and Taycan.

Administration and management roles are expected to be reduced the most, while Porsche may also cut capacity at its Weissach development site by up to 30%.

Last month, Porsche CEO Michael Leiters said the company plans to produce at a lower capacity than the roughly 280,000 cars sold last year. He stated that the company must "make money with fewer cars."

Porsche's profit eroded further in the first quarter as the automaker faced mounting pressure from tariffs, geopolitical turmoil, and gaps in its model lineup. The emergence of Chinese EV giants like BYD and Chery in Europe is another troubling development for EU automakers.

Porsche is part of the Volkswagen Group, where the VW CEO recently warned that more than 100,000 jobs could be eliminated in a massive overhaul.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:00

Saylor's Strategy Sells 3,588 Bitcoin To Cover Preferred Dividends

Saylor's Strategy Sells 3,588 Bitcoin To Cover Preferred Dividends

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine.com,

Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million to fund dividends on its preferred securities, the company disclosed in a Form 8-K on July 6, 2026.

The sale marks the largest bitcoin disposal in the company’s history and its most direct admission that its dividend obligations now shape its treasury.

Chairman Michael Saylor posted about the transaction on social media. As of July 5, the company held 843,775 bitcoin in its reserves and $2.55 billion in cash. Saylor said the proceeds covered second-quarter dividends on four preferred instruments and the full June payment on a fifth.

The disclosed sale funded quarterly dividends on STRF, STRE, STRK, and STRD. It also covered the monthly dividend on STRC. Together these securities form the core of what Strategy calls its Digital Credit business.

Each instrument carries a distinct payout structure. STRF, the senior tier, pays a fixed 10% annual dividend on a $100 stated amount. STRE pays 10% a year on a €100 stated amount, denominated in euros. 

STRK pays 8% and converts to common stock if shares reach $1,000. STRD pays 10% but is not cumulative, giving the board room to skip a payment. 

STRC sits in the middle of the stack and pays a variable rate near 12%, reset to keep the security trading close to its $100 par. The board recently shifted STRC to semi-monthly payments.

None of the preferred securities is backed by the company’s bitcoin. Each holds only a claim on residual assets.

Why Strategy is selling

Strategy is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. The company has built its treasury through repeated stock and debt offerings. Its bitcoin sits at a cost basis near $63.9 billion, or roughly $75,700 a coin.

That model created a growing cash bill. The preferred securities pay dividends in cash, not bitcoin. Strategy’s software business does not generate enough to cover them. 

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, estimated the annual dividend load at $1.5 billion. When cash reserves run short, the company must raise more capital or sell coins.

For years Saylor pledged to never sell. That stance ended in late May 2026. Strategy sold 32 bitcoin for about $2.5 million, its first disposal since 2022, to fund preferred dividends. 

The move broke the pledge and drew wide attention. Saylor framed it as a signal of commitment to preferred holders rather than a retreat from bitcoin. “Our goal is to make STRC the best credit instrument in the world,” he said at the time.

The July sale dwarfs that first step. At 3,588 coins and $216 million, it is roughly a hundred times larger.

According to the company’s latest filing, Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin between June 29 and July 5. About 1,363 Bitcoin were sold during the first two days of the program at an average price around $59,256, with another 2,225 Bitcoin sold over the following five days at $60,773.

Buying and selling at once

Strategy continues to accumulate even as it sells. After the May sale, the company bought 1,550 bitcoin for $101.3 million, nearly 50 times the size of the disposal. It made a $2 billion purchase in May and a $2.54 billion purchase in April. 

The pattern shows a firm that funds dividends from its stack while adding to it through fresh capital raises.

That approach depends on market access. Strategy can issue new preferred shares and common stock to raise cash. When those markets cooperate, the company avoids large sales. When they tighten, bitcoin becomes the source of funds. 

The July disposal suggests the second condition held during the quarter.

Last night, Saylor posted “Bitcoin is Digital Energy” on X, accompanied by Strategy’s orange-dot Bitcoin acquisition chart, prompting expectations that another SEC filing disclosing a new Bitcoin purchase is imminent. Traders have come to view these weekend posts as a recurring signal ahead of Strategy’s BTC accumulation announcements. This time, the announcement was about a bitcoin sale.

At the time of writing, Strategy shares are down 2% in premarket and bitcoin has dipped below $62,000.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 08:47

Citi Expects Oil To Sink To $60 As Hormuz Traffic Normalizes

Citi Expects Oil To Sink To $60 As Hormuz Traffic Normalizes

Brent Crude prices could plunge to as low as $60 per barrel by the end of the year, according to the latest note from Citi's commodity research team which expects flows through the Strait of Hormuz to soon normalize and the US and Iran to reach a deal in the coming months.

"Fundamentals are rapidly reasserting themselves as Hormuz disruptions fade, with Brent back to the low $70s/bbl. While the US-Iran process remains fragile and disputes over Hormuz administration and transit fees persist, we expect the MOU to hold and turn into a deal over the coming months as incentives to de-escalate outweigh the alternative for the US, Iran, and much of the ME region. Shipping flows are normalizing, Chinese buyers remain absent, physical crude markets have weakened sharply, and inventories have drawn far less than expected," Citi’s Francesco Martoccia wrote in his latest note.

"We continue to recommend selling any summer rallies and forecast Brent reaching $60 to $65 a barrel by the turn of the year," Citi analysts said in the note (available to pro subs).

The investment bank has traditionally been one of the most bearish voices in the market, and especially now that it expects shipping through Hormuz to normalize now that the Strait is open again. Moreover, China’s crude buying remains weak, physical prices have crumbled due to the surge of prompt supply from the Middle East, while “inventories have drawn far less than expected,” Citi said.

Inventories, including in the United States, have crashed to multi-decade lows since the war began four months ago. Buying to refill depleted stockpiles could support oil prices going forward, more bullish analysts say. 

However, the coming global race to rebuild depleted oil inventories will not be enough to offset a massive glut that’s coming to the market next year, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be headed toward normalization, Goldman Sachs said this week.

The investment bank expects the global oil surplus to be about 3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Wednesday.

“We do expect a little over 1 million barrels a day just of SPR rebuilding globally, but still, that would leave us close to 2 million barrels a day of a surplus,” Dart added.

Other Wall Street banks have also started to predict a glut next year after the U.S. and Iran signed the MoU.

Morgan Stanley, for example, has slashed its oil price forecasts for the next 18 months as it expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate a new supply glut.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 05:45

The Three SHTF Scenarios That Could Change The World Faster Than Anyone Expects!

The Three SHTF Scenarios That Could Change The World Faster Than Anyone Expects!

Authored by Madge Waggy,

For decades, the greatest threats to global stability were often imagined as distant possibilities—events reserved for history books, military simulations or the darkest years of the Cold War. Today, that assumption is becoming increasingly difficult to defend. International defense spending has reached levels not seen in decades, armed conflicts continue to reshape regional security architectures, and governments across Europe, North America and Asia are investing heavily in civil defense, cybersecurity and the protection of critical infrastructure. These are not preparations made in anticipation of ordinary times, but responses to a world that has become measurably more volatile than it was only a few years ago.

History offers a sobering reminder that societies are rarely transformed by a single catastrophic event. More often, they are changed by a sequence of crises that appear unrelated until they begin reinforcing one another—geopolitical confrontation, economic instability, infrastructure failures and the gradual erosion of public confidence. Whether viewed through the lens of preparedness, national security or historical precedent, one conclusion remains remarkably consistent: the most consequential moments are often recognized only after they have already begun.

Top Three Unstoppable SHTF Scenarios

Three crises that could change everyday life faster than most people believe possible.

 

1. Nobody Notices the Beginning

 

One of the biggest misconceptions about large-scale disasters is that they begin with a single dramatic event. Movies have trained us to expect sirens, mushroom clouds and emergency broadcasts interrupting television programming. Reality has been far less theatrical. Most crises begin quietly, almost anonymously, disguised as temporary inconveniences that appear manageable until they suddenly aren’t.

Think back to the first weeks of 2020. News reports about an unfamiliar virus circulated for weeks before most people paid attention. Outside a handful of specialists, almost nobody seriously believed that international travel would stop, businesses would close overnight or supermarket shelves would be stripped bare by ordinary shoppers. Looking back now, it’s easy to say the warning signs were obvious. At the time, they blended into the constant flow of headlines competing for attention every single day. That pattern has repeated itself throughout history. Major disruptions rarely arrive without warning; they arrive surrounded by so much background noise that almost nobody recognizes them until hindsight turns scattered events into an obvious timeline.

The reason this matters is that the international situation entering the second half of the decade feels unusually crowded with risks that, taken individually, don’t necessarily point toward catastrophe. The war in Ukraine continues to reshape European security policy. Military spending has increased across much of NATO, while countries that had spent decades reducing their armed forces are now expanding recruitment and rebuilding stockpiles of ammunition. In Asia, naval activity around Taiwan has become more frequent, North Korea continues to invest in its missile program, and governments throughout the Pacific are preparing contingency plans that would have sounded alarmist only a few years ago. None of those developments automatically lead to global conflict, but together they create an environment where a single mistake could carry consequences well beyond the region where it begins.

Military planners have long argued that modern wars are less likely to start with a formal declaration than with a sequence of rapidly escalating incidents. A cyberattack disables part of a communications network. Intelligence services detect unusual military movements that may—or may not—be routine exercises. Satellite images are interpreted differently by opposing governments, each convinced the other is preparing to move first. Political leaders are then forced to make decisions in real time while operating with incomplete information, knowing that waiting too long carries risks, but acting too quickly may trigger the very crisis they hope to avoid. History contains numerous examples of conflicts that expanded not because every participant wanted war, but because every participant believed the other side had already decided that war was unavoidable.

2. The Black Sky Event

Few people spend much time thinking about the electrical grid. It is one of those systems that exists almost entirely in the background, quietly supporting modern life without demanding much attention from the people who depend upon it every single day. Flip a switch, and the lights come on. Open a banking application, and a payment is processed within seconds. Order groceries online, and thousands of decisions involving warehouses, logistics companies, transportation hubs and inventory management systems unfold without ever becoming visible to the customer. The greatest achievement of modern infrastructure may not be its scale, but its ability to disappear into everyday life. Only when one part of the system stops working does the extraordinary complexity behind ordinary routines become impossible to ignore.

That complexity has become increasingly difficult to overlook during the past several years. Governments have invested heavily in strengthening electrical networks, protecting telecommunications infrastructure and improving cybersecurity across both public and private sectors. The motivation is not difficult to understand. Modern economies rely upon systems that exchange enormous amounts of information every second, balancing electricity demand, coordinating transportation schedules and synchronizing financial transactions with remarkable precision. A disruption affecting one network rarely remains confined to a single location. Even relatively localized failures can create unexpected consequences elsewhere, not because the systems are fragile by design, but because they have become deeply interconnected through decades of technological progress.

The idea behind what preparedness communities have often described as a “Black Sky” event does not begin with a spectacular disaster. Instead, it unfolds gradually, almost quietly, in a manner that resembles the opening stages of previous crises. A regional outage lasts longer than utility companies initially expected. Mobile networks become unreliable across several metropolitan areas. Electronic payment terminals begin experiencing intermittent interruptions, forcing businesses to accept only cash while technicians investigate the source of the problem. Distribution centers report delays after software responsible for routing deliveries starts producing inconsistent data. None of these developments appears catastrophic on its own. Each can be explained individually. Together, however, they begin creating a pattern that attracts far more attention than any isolated incident would have received only days earlier.

Early Developments
  1. Electrical disruptions spread beyond the area where they first appeared.

  2. Communications become increasingly inconsistent rather than failing completely.

  3. Retail supply chains begin experiencing delivery delays.

  4. Financial institutions introduce temporary safeguards while investigating technical anomalies.

  5. Emergency services activate contingency procedures designed for prolonged infrastructure failures.

What makes the situation increasingly difficult to interpret is the speed at which uncertainty travels. Modern societies produce an extraordinary volume of information every hour, yet during periods of disruption the demand for answers almost always exceeds the supply of verified facts. News organizations rely upon official briefings that evolve as new information becomes available. Independent analysts compare satellite imagery, transportation data and publicly available infrastructure reports, frequently arriving at different conclusions. Social media platforms amplify eyewitness accounts from thousands of locations simultaneously, mixing accurate observations with misunderstandings, speculation and deliberate misinformation until distinguishing one from another becomes a challenge in itself.

History suggests that confidence can become as important as physical infrastructure during moments of uncertainty. Supermarkets rarely maintain weeks of inventory because modern logistics have made constant replenishment far more efficient than long-term storage. Fuel stations depend upon scheduled deliveries arriving with remarkable consistency. Pharmacies receive regular shipments that reflect predictable patterns of demand. Hospitals coordinate supplies through sophisticated procurement systems designed around uninterrupted transportation. Under ordinary circumstances, these arrangements represent one of the greatest strengths of the global economy. During periods of sustained disruption, however, even modest delays can begin affecting sectors that appear unrelated at first glance.

As reports continue emerging from different regions, attention gradually shifts away from the original outages toward the broader question of resilience. Engineers focus on restoring damaged infrastructure, while government agencies attempt to coordinate information across multiple jurisdictions. Businesses activate continuity plans that had existed largely on paper until circumstances required their implementation. Some organizations transition smoothly to backup systems, while others discover that contingency measures designed years earlier no longer reflect the complexity of present-day operations. Every hour brings incremental progress in some areas and unexpected setbacks in others, creating an environment where optimism and concern coexist in equal measure.

Rather than producing immediate panic, the first noticeable change appears in everyday routines. Families begin purchasing additional bottled water, batteries and shelf-stable food—not necessarily because they expect the worst, but because recent experience has demonstrated how quickly normal purchasing habits can change during periods of uncertainty. Hardware stores report increased demand for portable generators and emergency lighting. Local governments remind residents to review preparedness plans originally developed for severe weather events. These individual decisions seem reasonable when viewed independently, yet together they begin reshaping daily life in subtle but unmistakable ways.

By the time officials announce that restoration efforts may require considerably longer than originally anticipated, the conversation has already expanded beyond electricity itself. The real question is no longer whether power will eventually return, but how a society built upon continuous connectivity adapts when continuity can no longer be taken for granted. That question, more than any technical explanation or engineering report, becomes the defining theme of the weeks that follow.

3. The Hidden Variable

Every crisis begins with a tangible problem. A military confrontation unfolds along a border. A cyberattack disrupts essential services. A financial shock sends markets into turmoil. These events dominate headlines because they can be measured, mapped and documented. They leave behind damaged infrastructure, economic losses and political consequences that analysts can examine long after the immediate emergency has passed.

The more difficult question is what happens after those measurable events begin influencing something far less visible.

History suggests that societies rarely unravel because of a single catastrophe. More often, they are tested by uncertainty itself. Information becomes fragmented, official statements evolve as new facts emerge, and competing interpretations race across television broadcasts, podcasts and social media platforms faster than any government can realistically respond. Within hours, millions of people may be looking at the same event while reaching entirely different conclusions about what has actually happened.

The modern information environment has transformed that process in unprecedented ways. During previous generations, news traveled through a relatively small number of newspapers, radio stations and television networks. Today, virtually anyone can publish photographs, videos or eyewitness accounts that reach a global audience within minutes. This democratization of information has created extraordinary opportunities for transparency, but it has also made distinguishing reliable reporting from incomplete or manipulated content considerably more difficult.

In an environment already strained by military tensions, infrastructure disruptions and economic uncertainty, information itself begins behaving like another critical resource. Accurate reporting becomes increasingly valuable precisely because it is competing against an overwhelming volume of conflicting claims. Every delay in communication creates space for speculation. Every contradictory statement encourages further debate. Every unanswered question generates dozens of possible explanations before investigators have even completed their initial assessments.

This gradual erosion of certainty produces consequences that extend well beyond politics. Financial markets react not only to events themselves but also to expectations about what may happen next. Businesses postpone investments when reliable forecasts become difficult to produce. Consumers delay major purchases, employers slow hiring decisions and international companies reconsider expansion plans while waiting for greater clarity. None of these individual decisions appears dramatic in isolation. Collectively, however, they can reshape economic activity far more effectively than a single headline ever could.

The same pattern has appeared repeatedly throughout modern history. Economic crises have often been accelerated by collapsing confidence rather than disappearing resources. Banking systems depend upon trust that deposits will remain accessible. Supply chains depend upon confidence that contractual obligations will be fulfilled. Democracies depend upon public acceptance that institutions remain capable of resolving disputes peacefully, even during periods of extraordinary disagreement. Once confidence begins deteriorating, restoring it often proves considerably more difficult than repairing damaged infrastructure or rebuilding physical assets.

Signals That Often Accompany Periods of Heightened Uncertainty
  1. Rapidly changing official guidance as new information becomes available.
  2. Increased market volatility driven by expectations rather than confirmed developments.
  3. Growing dependence on unofficial sources for real-time updates.
  4. Sudden shifts in consumer behavior despite stable underlying supply.
  5. Expanding public debate over which institutions remain the most reliable.

One of the defining characteristics of the digital age is that every major event now unfolds simultaneously across multiple realities. The physical event occurs first. Within minutes it is interpreted by journalists, government agencies, financial analysts, independent researchers and millions of ordinary citizens, each bringing different assumptions and priorities. By the end of the day, the public conversation may no longer revolve around the original event itself, but around competing explanations of what it means and what should happen next.

This phenomenon has introduced a challenge that previous generations rarely faced on such a scale. The speed of communication has increased exponentially, while the speed of verification has not. Satellite imagery requires analysis. Intelligence assessments require corroboration. Infrastructure failures require technical investigation. Financial data requires careful interpretation. Reliable conclusions almost always arrive more slowly than speculation, creating an unavoidable gap between public demand for immediate answers and the time required to produce them responsibly.

For emergency planners, that gap represents one of the most significant challenges of modern crisis management. Restoring electricity, reopening transportation corridors or stabilizing financial systems remains essential, but maintaining public confidence increasingly depends upon something equally important: clear, consistent and credible communication. Without it, even temporary disruptions can appear far larger than they actually are, while isolated incidents may be interpreted as evidence of broader systemic failures.

Perhaps that is the lesson connecting all three scenarios explored throughout this article. Military escalation, infrastructure disruption and institutional uncertainty are often discussed as separate risks, each belonging to different areas of expertise. In reality, modern societies have become so interconnected that developments in one domain inevitably influence the others. A geopolitical confrontation affects energy markets. Energy disruptions influence industrial production. Economic uncertainty shapes political decision-making. Information networks amplify every stage of the process, compressing days of public reaction into hours.

Whether future crises resemble past events or take entirely new forms, one principle remains remarkably consistent. The resilience of a society depends not only upon the strength of its military, the sophistication of its technology or the size of its economy, but also upon its ability to adapt when certainty becomes scarce. Throughout history, civilizations have demonstrated an extraordinary capacity to recover from disasters that once appeared overwhelming. The greatest advantage has rarely been perfect preparation or flawless prediction. More often, it has been the willingness to remain adaptable, cooperate across institutions and communities, and make informed decisions despite incomplete information.

In an era defined by accelerating technological change and increasingly interconnected systems, that may prove to be the most valuable form of resilience of all.

The Common Thread

Looking back through history, it is remarkable how often major crises are remembered for the moment they reached public consciousness rather than the moment they actually began. The headlines that define an era usually arrive only after months, and sometimes years, of developments that seemed disconnected while they were unfolding. Economic downturns are rarely caused by a single trading day. Wars seldom begin with one isolated incident. Even technological revolutions tend to emerge gradually before suddenly appearing inevitable in retrospect. The same pattern can be found across countless historical events, where the decisive turning point often becomes obvious only after enough individual pieces have fallen into place.

That observation forms the common thread connecting every scenario explored throughout this article. Although military conflict, infrastructure disruption and institutional uncertainty appear to belong to different worlds, they are ultimately linked by the same underlying reality: modern civilization functions as an interconnected system. Decisions made in one capital influence financial markets on another continent. A disruption affecting a single shipping route alters manufacturing schedules thousands of kilometers away. Political uncertainty reshapes investment, while economic instability influences diplomacy, defense planning and public confidence. Each development interacts with countless others, creating consequences that are often impossible to predict from any single event alone.

Perhaps that is why periods of rapid change have always been so difficult to recognize while they are happening. Human beings naturally interpret new developments through the lens of previous experience. Temporary shortages are expected to remain temporary. Political disagreements are assumed to follow familiar patterns. Technical failures are treated as isolated problems waiting for engineers to solve them. Most of the time, those assumptions prove correct. Societies recover, institutions adapt and ordinary life gradually resumes. It is precisely because this pattern has repeated so often that genuinely transformative moments are frequently underestimated during their earliest stages.

Preparedness, therefore, has never been solely about stockpiling supplies or anticipating worst-case scenarios. At its core, preparedness has always reflected something far broader: the ability to adapt when familiar assumptions no longer apply. History consistently rewards flexibility over certainty. Communities that cooperate tend to recover more quickly than those divided by distrust. Organizations capable of adjusting to rapidly changing conditions often outperform those relying exclusively on rigid plans. Individuals who remain informed without becoming overwhelmed are generally better positioned than those driven entirely by optimism or fear.

One lesson emerges repeatedly from past crises. Information matters, but judgment matters even more. During periods of uncertainty, headlines compete for attention, opinions multiply and speculation often spreads faster than verified facts. The challenge is not simply finding more information, but learning how to evaluate it carefully, recognizing the difference between immediate reactions and longer-term trends. Decisions made under pressure rarely benefit from panic, yet they also suffer when obvious warning signs are ignored. Maintaining that balance has always been one of the defining characteristics of resilient societies.

The world entering the second half of this decade is neither uniquely dangerous nor uniquely secure. It is, however, more interconnected than at any previous point in history. Advances in technology, communication and global trade have delivered extraordinary prosperity and unprecedented convenience, while simultaneously creating new forms of dependency that earlier generations never experienced. That duality is likely to define many of the challenges ahead. Every innovation that strengthens society also introduces new questions about resilience, complexity and the unintended consequences of living in a world where events on one side of the planet can influence daily life on the other within hours.

For that reason, the value of examining scenarios such as those presented here lies less in predicting the future than in appreciating how quickly circumstances can change when multiple systems interact. History has repeatedly demonstrated that resilience is rarely built in the middle of a crisis. It is developed beforehand through planning, cooperation, investment in reliable institutions and an informed public capable of responding thoughtfully when conditions become uncertain.

No one can predict precisely what the next defining global crisis will look like. It may resemble challenges experienced before, or it may emerge from directions that currently receive little attention. What history suggests with remarkable consistency is that the first signs are seldom recognized for what they are. They appear as isolated headlines, temporary inconveniences or regional developments that seem unlikely to affect anyone beyond their immediate surroundings. Only later, when enough connections become visible, does the larger picture begin to emerge.

And perhaps that is the most enduring lesson of all. The greatest challenges are not always the ones that arrive with the loudest warning. More often, they begin quietly, almost unnoticed, hidden within the ordinary rhythm of everyday life until the moment that rhythm changes—and the world realizes it has already entered a new chapter.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 05:00

World Cup Fans Drive Spending Surge In These US Host Cities

World Cup Fans Drive Spending Surge In These US Host Cities

Bank of America has released new aggregated credit and debit card data showing that the World Cup is already driving a noticeable increase in retail spending activity across the tournament's 11 U.S. host cities.

According to BofA analyst Aditya Bhave, brick-and-mortar spending at restaurants and bars in host cities rose 5.3% year over year in the three weeks ending June 27, outpacing the 3.8% gain seen across the rest of the U.S.

Bhave noted that other forms of brick-and-mortar retail spending also accelerated in host cities, suggesting the tournament is providing a real-time boost for local restaurants, bars, and retailers.

Boston and Miami were exceptions, with restaurant and bar spending remaining flat and other retail spending slowing. Bhave said both cities hosted Scotland group-stage games and suggested that a heavy inflow of Scottish fans may have crowded out local spending.

Bhave noted that the data likely understates the full impact of the World Cup because it captures only spending by BofA customers.

Professional subscribers can read more notes on consumer here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 04:15

LEGO Faces Backlash Over Pride-Themed Content Aimed At Kids

LEGO Faces Backlash Over Pride-Themed Content Aimed At Kids

Via American Greatness,

The Denmark-based toy company LEGO is facing criticism after promoting Pride-themed content on social media and its website. Parents accused the company of introducing LGBT themes to a brand primarily marketed to children.

Although LEGO produces some building sets for adults, the company markets most of its products to children. Many young consumers follow the brand on social media.

In a recent Instagram post, LEGO celebrated Pride Month with the caption, “Pride moments built, brick by brick. Swipe to see more of our LEGO colleagues’ stories.”

The accompanying slideshow featured LEGO minifigures recounting coming-out experiences, including one character attending a Pride parade and another depicting a male character proposing to his boyfriend.

Parents and social media users criticized the post, with several calling for a boycott of the company.

“LEGO is now openly pushing Pride parades, gay marriage, and rainbow ideology straight at children,” one commenter wrote on X.

“This isn’t ‘inclusion.’ It’s sexualizing childhood and grooming the next generation with adult themes.”

The commenter added, “Parents are waking up. Boycott time. Companies that target kids with this stuff deserve to lose customers… keep this garbage away from our children.”

In 2021, LEGO released a set titled “Everyone Is Awesome,” featuring 11 faceless minifigures displayed in the colors of the Progress Pride flag. The company labeled the set for ages 18 and older.

According to the information provided, the set’s designer, Matthew Ashton, said it was created with children in mind and reflected his own experience of coming out as a teenager.

“Children are our role models and they welcome everyone, no matter their background. Something we should all be aspiring to,” Ashton said.

“If I had been given this set by somebody at that point in my life, it would have been such a relief to know that somebody had my back. To know that I had somebody there to say ‘I love you, I believe in you. I’ll always be here for you.’ So, in a way, this set is not just for the LGBTQIA+ community. It’s for all of the allies — parents, siblings, friends, schoolmates, colleagues, etc. — out there as well.”

The company also promoted a Pride Month activity on its official website on June 1.

“It’s time to paint the town red, orange, yellow, green… basically a whole rainbow of color! That’s right, it’s Pride Month, and we’re celebrating the best way we know how: with LEGO® bricks!” the activity description states.

The page encouraged participants to create Pride-themed LEGO builds, stating, “This year, we want you to celebrate what makes you—and everyone you love—quite frankly, AWESOME.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 03:30

Soaring Imports Push India's Crude Stocks To Near 1-Year High

Soaring Imports Push India's Crude Stocks To Near 1-Year High

India’s strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have jumped to a nearly one-year high as the world’s third-largest crude oil buyer boosted its imports to a record high in June, OilPrice reported.

As at the end of June, India’s crude oil stocks held in strategic, commercial, and refinery storage had increased to 104 million barrels, up from 90.5 million barrels at the end of April, according to data from commodity intelligence provider Kpler cited by Indian outlet Economic Times. Before the Iran war began, India held 107 million in crude oil inventories as of the end of February—the highest end-month level for the previous 12 months.

The war depleted inventories in March and April, before Indian refiners started raising imports from Russia and turn to Venezuela—both sources of supply that doesn’t need to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

By June, stocks were recovering and nearing the level from before the Iran war.

India imported a record high level of 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, more than half of which - 2.6 million bpd - from Russia, thanks to the U.S. waiver (now expired) on sales of Russian oil already loaded on tankers.

Yet, India wants to lower its crude import bill, protect public finances, and become more resilient to supply shocks such as the Middle East conflict that crippled supply from the Strait of Hormuz. That’s why it is looking to boost energy security by diversifying import sources and expanding its strategic storage.

Currently, India’s underground Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage has a total capacity of 5.33 million metric tons of crude oil, equal to only 39 million barrels of crude oil, or eight days’ worth of India’s oil consumption.

India’s storage of just about a week of its roughly 5 million bpd of consumption, is well below the SPRs of many other large oil consumers, which exposes New Delhi’s vulnerability to sudden supply shocks.

Separately, in response to media reports that India is flipping Russian oil imports by exporting its products back to Russia, India’s Oil Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, said that the country's refiners are not directly exporting any refined petroleum products to fuel-starved Russia, although some supplies from traders are likely reaching Russia.

Reports emerged earlier this week that Russia had started importing fuel from India by sea in a bid to ease the fuel shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. In an exclusive Reuters report, industry sources revealed that an initial shipment of at least 60,000 metric tons (510,000 barrels) of gasoline has been dispatched from India via two tankers destined for Russian ports.

Hours after the report surfaced, India’s oil minister insisted that Indian refiners aren’t directly selling fuel to Russia.

“Indian companies are not selling fuels to Russia,” Puri said at a media briefing, but acknowledged that it is “possible that Indian-origin refined fuel is sold to Russia via traders.”

Gasoline from Indian refiner Nayara Energy, in which Russia’s top oil firm Rosneft holds a 49% stake, has been sold to Russia via traders, sources with direct knowledge of the deals told Reuters on Thursday. So it is likely that India-produced fuels are now reaching Russia via traders, as Moscow scrambles to alleviate a major fuel supply crisis.

Ukraine’s intensified drone strikes in recent months have now knocked offline an estimated 30% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. During peak summer demand, Russian refining throughput has sunk to a two-decade low.

In a rare public admission at the end of June, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia faces fuel shortages and a fuel crisis that needs further government intervention to solve.

The fuel shortages that emerged in some regions in May have now reached the capital city Moscow, too, after Ukrainian strikes last month hit and sent Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery offline. The refinery is unlikely to resume fuel production before 2027 after suffering extensive structural damage from multiple strikes by Ukraine’s long-range drones, industry sources told Reuters last month.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 02:45

More Defense Spending, More Climate Redistribution: The EU Spins A $2.2 Trillion Wealth Transfer Machine

More Defense Spending, More Climate Redistribution: The EU Spins A $2.2 Trillion Wealth Transfer Machine

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

Negotiations over the European Commission's next seven-year budget are entering their decisive phase. Should Ursula von der Leyen and her allies succeed with their plans, Germany will once again shoulder a substantial financial burden. By now, however, Germans have become accustomed to that reality.

Across the world, public debt levels are approaching dangerous flood marks. The global economy is effectively drowning in debt, with total public liabilities now exceeding 95% of global GDP. It is therefore only a matter of time before bond markets bring the debt party to an end, pushing interest rates—and with them debt-servicing costs—to levels governments can no longer afford. Such a reckoning would merely represent the logical consequence of political irresponsibility, contempt for taxpayers, and the megalomania of a political culture that continues expanding government on an ever-growing mountain of debt.

A four-decade bull market in sovereign bonds, characterized by steadily declining yields, came to an end roughly four years ago. Since then, interest rates have been rising as investors gradually lose confidence in both the political direction of Western governments and the relentless expansion of the administrative state. A turning point is approaching. Fiscal austerity is standing at the gates of an era defined by political extravagance.

For politicians like Ursula von der Leyen, however, austerity would amount to admitting that decades of debt-financed government expansion have led into a dead end. Few things are more alien to modern political elites than acknowledging failure. This is particularly true within Brussels, where the bureaucratic establishment and the ideological foundations of the European project remain firmly convinced that they are building a supranational European state on the right side of history.

Unsurprisingly, austerity is nowhere to be found in Brussels.

Instead, negotiations over the next seven-year EU budget are underway. The European Commission has floated a financial framework worth approximately €2 trillion. Funding for Ukraine-related military expenditures, broader European rearmament, and the enormous subsidy complex underpinning the Green Deal are all expected to come from higher member-state contributions and newly issued common debt. In doing so, Brussels continues to strengthen both its political authority and its influence over national governments.

Germany currently finances roughly one-quarter of the EU budget. Under the proposed framework, German taxpayers would ultimately contribute around €500 billion over the entire budget period. Last year alone Germany paid approximately €30 billion into the EU budget while receiving roughly €13 billion back, primarily in the form of agricultural subsidies and the ever-expanding subsidy machinery supporting Europe's green industrial policies and interventionist economic model.

Yet even a €2 trillion budget - already representing a leap into fiscal fantasy given the severe economic damage inflicted by years of excessive European regulation - is apparently no longer sufficient for Brussels.

Discussions are now underway to increase the budget by another €200 billion.

Leading the charge, unsurprisingly, is the European Commission itself: an insatiable bureaucracy working relentlessly to establish independent sources of taxation. Customs revenues, proceeds from emissions trading, plastic taxes—the imagination of Brussels appears limitless. At the same time, direct financial demands on member states continue expanding almost automatically, with ever-higher budget contributions treated as political routine despite growing conservative resistance across Europe.

Should the von der Leyen Commission succeed in making this fiscal leap, Germany's annual contribution to financing the European project would rise from roughly €30 billion today to approximately €78.6 billion.

For taxpayers, the implications are profound. An entirely new layer of government—complete with its own bureaucracy and increasingly its own taxation powers—has gradually positioned itself above existing national institutions. Since the joint borrowing undertaken during the pandemic and the issuance of the massive NextGenerationEU bonds, Brussels has steadily transformed itself into an independent borrower on international capital markets.

Officially, the German government still opposes granting the European Commission broader taxation powers and objects to dramatically expanding the EU budget. Yet all indications suggest that Berlin will ultimately shift the fiscal burden to Brussels itself, paving the way for larger common bond issuance—or some comparable mechanism—to finance the growing central apparatus.

Beginning in 2028, repayment of the €750 billion NextGenerationEU debt will commence. Those obligations, spread over subsequent years, must eventually be repaid to investors. Since these resources simply do not exist, Europe's capitals will almost certainly reach the same conclusion: refinance the liabilities through continuous new bond issuance, effectively burying what remains of the European Union's original prohibition against common sovereign debt.

In many respects, the transformation of Europe's financing structure resembles a financial evolution toward a European superstate. Ultimately, common liability for Brussels' debts appears virtually inevitable. The political and institutional path back has largely disappeared.

For German taxpayers, this strategy amounts to little more than witnessing another familiar fiscal shell game.

Brussels will almost certainly continue creating new revenue streams through customs duties, emissions trading, plastic taxes, and whatever additional levies policymakers may devise.

The remaining financing gap will inevitably be covered through Eurobonds issued on capital markets.

Such policies carry significant inflationary risks, as additional sovereign borrowing expands the money supply and places upward pressure on prices. At the same time, government borrowing increasingly crowds private investment out of credit markets, raising financing costs for productive businesses while strengthening the role of the public sector.

The consequences are already becoming visible. Europe's downward spiral of declining prosperity is accelerating. It is a tragic process of economic deterioration—one that is increasingly likely to culminate in a major sovereign debt crisis.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 02:00

The Unfinished Revolution: When Rights Become Privileges

The Unfinished Revolution: When Rights Become Privileges

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“What country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance?”

- Thomas Jefferson

What exactly are Americans celebrating this Fourth of July?

Two hundred and fifty years after the Declaration of Independence proclaimed that all people possess inalienable rights, we now live under a government that increasingly behaves as though rights belong to the government to distribute, restrict and revoke as it sees fit.

Freedom has become conditional.

Equal justice under law has become selective.

Constitutional rights have become political bargaining chips.

Government now claims the authority to decide which religious beliefs deserve accommodation and which may be excluded—a clear violation of the First Amendment’s warning against both establishing a religion and favoring or disfavoring one religion over another.

It insists that some speakers deserve constitutional protection while others may be censored, surveilled or punished—a violation of the right to free speech.

It proclaims itself the defender of unborn life while dismantling programs that protect the health and welfare of children already born.

It welcomes some immigrants with extraordinary speed while denying others the full measure of due process promised by the Constitution.

It pays lip service to equality under law while dismantling programs designed to ensure equal opportunity and root out discrimination.

It invokes the sanctity of children while narrowing which children may claim the birthright citizenship guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment.

It insists that no one is above the law while expanding presidential immunity and removing many of the traditional checks on executive power.

None of these contradictions exists in isolation.

Together they reveal a dangerous shift in the relationship between the citizen and the state.

Rights that the Declaration of Independence described as inalienable are increasingly treated as permissions—granted when convenient, withheld when inconvenient, and interpreted according to political priorities rather than constitutional principle.

That is not merely bad policy.

It is a repudiation of the American Revolution, because the Revolution began with one radical claim: freedom is our birthright.

To listen to those in power, however, freedom is a privilege reserved for a select few: the politically favored, the ideologically acceptable, the obedient, the compliant, the useful.

The Declaration of Independence advanced a very different idea: that all people are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights.

That was the real revolution.

America’s founders may have disagreed—often grievously and hypocritically—about who qualified as “the people,” but they were united in one essential conviction: our rights do not come from government.

The government exists to serve us.

Government exists to safeguard and protect our inalienable rights—not ration them, redefine them or revoke them.

That distinction matters.

Once government is allowed to decide whose rights count, rights cease to be rights at all.

They become privileges.

And privileges can always be revoked.

For 250 years, Americans have treated the Declaration of Independence as the nation's birth certificate, but the Declaration was never merely a birth certificate—it was a warning label.

It was written by people who understood that freedom is fragile, power is relentless, and no generation remains free simply because an earlier generation fought for liberty.

The Declaration was not a celebration of government.

It was an indictment of government.

It catalogued the abuses of a ruler who had placed himself above the law, treated the people as subjects rather than sovereigns, undermined representative government, obstructed justice, maintained standing armies, imposed surveillance, abused power and waged war against the very people he claimed to govern.

The names have changed. The machinery has changed. The technology has changed.

The danger has not.

That is why the Constitution matters.

The Constitution translated the warnings of the Declaration into law.

Through separated powers, checks and balances, federalism, and a Bill of Rights, the founders sought to bind government down with what Thomas Jefferson called “the chains of the Constitution.”

James Madison understood that the greatest threat to liberty would not come from a foreign king but from our own government if left unchecked.

If men were angels,” Madison famously observed, “no government would be necessary.”

Because those entrusted with power are not angels, the Constitution—especially the Bill of Rights—was designed to restrain it.

The Constitution assumes that power will seek to expand. That is why it divides power. That is why it checks power.

That is why it places certain freedoms beyond the reach of government majorities, executive decrees, judicial maneuvering and political convenience.

Yet those constitutional restraints are increasingly being loosened—not by formal amendment, but by precedent, emergency powers, executive practice, bureaucratic discretion and public indifference.

The warnings are no longer theoretical.

Even the judiciary has increasingly become part of that transformation.

Rather than serving as a reliable constitutional brake on concentrated power, the U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly removed barriers that once restrained the executive branch: presidential immunitylimits on nationwide injunctions, and expanded presidential power to fire independent agency officials.

Each decision may be explained on its own legal reasoning. Together they tell a larger constitutional story: the presidency grows stronger, while the people’s ability to restrain it grows weaker.

In Trump v. United States, the Court declared that presidents enjoy sweeping immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts, placing many exercises of executive power beyond the reach of laws that govern every other citizen.

In Trump v. CASA, the Court curtailed the power of lower federal courts to issue nationwide injunctions, making it more difficult to halt unconstitutional executive actions before they take effect across the country.

In Trump v. Slaughter, the Court expanded presidential control over supposedly independent agencies by strengthening the president’s power to remove agency officials.

Even where the Court has reaffirmed constitutional protections—as it did in rejecting the Trump administration’s attempt to undermine birthright citizenship—it has still left intact a dangerous constitutional reality: executive overreach can move faster than meaningful accountability.

The founders would have recognized this danger immediately. They had just fought a revolution against concentrated executive power.

Tyranny today may no longer look like King George III, but it is no less dangerous when it arrives wrapped in the language of national security, public safety, emergency management, border control, religious liberty, law and order, governmental efficiency and executive necessity.

It promises protection while steadily expanding surveillance, policing, executive discretion and bureaucratic control. It wraps itself in flags. It quotes Scripture. It invokes patriotism. It salutes the troops.

It speaks the language of freedom while making freedom conditional on obedience.

Thomas Jefferson would have recognized the pattern.

If Jefferson were drafting the Declaration of Independence today, the list of grievances would look strikingly familiar.

Instead of protesting quartered soldiers, he would likely protest militarized police forces equipped like occupying armies.

Instead of denouncing general warrants, he would condemn dragnet surveillance, geofence searches, facial recognition technology and warrantless tracking capable of monitoring millions of innocent people.

Instead of objecting to arbitrary searches of homes and papers, he would confront a government that can peer into our phones, financial records, online communications, travel histories and biometric data with astonishing ease.

Instead of warning against standing armies, he would question a permanent national security apparatus that wages endless wars abroad while steadily importing the tactics of war into policing at home.

Instead of protesting taxation without representation, he might challenge an administrative state that increasingly governs through executive orders, emergency declarations and unelected bureaucracies insulated from meaningful public accountability.

Instead of condemning the obstruction of justice, he would confront a system in which courts too often defer to power, Congress too often abdicates its authority, and presidents increasingly insist they may act first and answer later—if they answer at all.

Instead of accusing a distant monarch of placing himself above the law, he would confront a constitutional system in which the presidency has become imperial, the bureaucracy has become unaccountable, the surveillance state has become omnipresent, and the citizen has been reduced to a suspect, a data point, a taxpayer, a voter, a consumer and, too often, a pawn.

The machinery of power has grown unimaginably more sophisticated, but the central question remains exactly the same: who governs—the people or the government itself?

This is why the Fourth of July matters.

It was never intended as a celebration of government power. It is a celebration of liberty and self-government—the moment ordinary people declared that no ruler, no legislature, no court and no army should ever become too powerful to challenge.

That is precisely the principle now being tested.

Nowhere has this inversion of constitutional government been more visible than under the Trump administration, where rights increasingly appear to depend not on constitutional principle but on political identity, ideological conformity and executive preference.

The danger is not simply that government power is expanding. It is that government is claiming the authority to decide who possesses constitutional rights and who does not.

Freedom of speech, but only for those whose speech government approves. Religious liberty, but only for the beliefs those in power favor. Due process, but only for the people government considers worthy. Equal protection, but only for the politically acceptable. Citizenship, but only for the babies government chooses to recognize. Accountability, but only for ordinary citizens and not for presidents cloaked in immunity.

This is how constitutional government is hollowed out.

Not all at once.

Not always with tanks in the streets.

Not always with a formal suspension of the Constitution.

Liberty rarely vanishes in one dramatic act. It recedes gradually—emergency by emergency, exception by exception, court ruling by court ruling, executive order by executive order, crisis by crisis.

It disappears when due process becomes optional, habeas corpus is treated as expendable, speech is chilled, surveillance becomes routine, government secrecy expands, religious freedom becomes selective, citizenship becomes negotiable, oversight bodies can be fired at will, and executive power grows while meaningful accountability contracts.

It disappears when “we the people” grow so accustomed to fusion centers, surveillance cameras, geofence warrants, AI-assisted policing, militarized SWAT raids, civil asset forfeiture, government watchlists, facial recognition systems, warrantless tracking, endless wars, executive decrees and perpetual states of emergency that constitutional government becomes little more than a ceremonial ideal.

The most dangerous lie of the modern police state is not that government possesses extraordinary powers—it is that those powers are necessary, permanent and beyond question.

Every emergency becomes justification for another exception. Every crisis becomes an opportunity to normalize another expansion of authority. Temporary measures become permanent institutions.

Extraordinary powers become ordinary tools of government. And while the machinery of control expands, the machinery of distraction conspires to keep us from focusing on the government’s self-serving corruption, power grabs and abuses.

Authoritarian regimes require a populace that is too distracted—by spectacle, by outrage, by entertainment, by partisan tribalism, by endless political theater, by what the Romans called bread and circuses, by what we might call militainment—to get outraged enough to do something about the theft of their liberties.

When so-called representatives of the people celebrate power more than liberty, spectacle more than substance, and obedience more than accountability, that is not patriotism. It is conditioning.

The founders understood the danger of that conditioning. They distrusted concentrated power, feared standing armies, insisted on constitutional restraint and placed sovereignty not in rulers but in the people.

They pledged allegiance not to personalities, parties or power, but to enduring ideals and principles.

The founders did not create freedom.

What they created was a constitutional framework designed to preserve it.

Whether that framework survives depends upon whether the American people continue using it.

As America approaches its 250th anniversary, the most important question is not whether the nation survived.

The real question is whether the principles that inspired the Revolution have survived as well.

Have we preserved the belief that government derives its just powers from the consent of the governed? Have we preserved the conviction that no one is above the law? Have we preserved the understanding that liberty requires eternal vigilance?

Or have we quietly accepted the idea that rights exist only at the pleasure of those in power?

If we truly wish to honor the spirit of 1776, we must restore the constitutional restraints that made liberty possible in the first place.

Bind the government, including the president, down with the chains of the Constitution.

James Madison understood that written constitutions alone cannot preserve liberty.

Rights written on paper become little more than “parchment barriers” unless the people insist that those limits be honored.

The Constitution cannot defend itself. Neither can freedom.

That was the lesson of independence.

It remains the warning of our time.

The unfinished work of the American Revolution was never about building a stronger government. It was about preserving a free people capable of restraining their government.

Two hundred and fifty years ago, Jefferson wrote that governments derive “their just powers from the consent of the governed.”

He did not write that governments derive their powers from fear. Or emergency. Or efficiency. Or surveillance. Or military strength. Or presidential immunity. Or partisan loyalty.

He wrote that governments exist to secure rights that already belong to the people.

The generation of 1776 pledged “their Lives, their Fortunes and their sacred Honor” because they understood that liberty would never preserve itself.

Our generation is unlikely to be asked to sign another Declaration of Independence.

But we are being asked something just as consequential: whether we will preserve the constitutional safeguards entrusted to us or quietly surrender them for the promise of security, efficiency and political victory.

Every generation inherits the Revolution unfinished.

Every generation must decide whether to continue its work—or abandon it.

As I make clear in Battlefield America: The War on the American People and its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, freedom does not defend itself.

Thus, the question before us is no longer whether America has reached its 250th birthday. The question is whether Americans still believe what made that birthday worth celebrating in the first place.

Preserving that birthright is our responsibility.

The Constitution is not self-enforcing.

Courts will not always protect liberty. Congress will not always defend its authority. Presidents will rarely surrender power voluntarily.

Which leaves only one remaining guardian of constitutional government: We the people.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 23:20

Trump: 'Netanyahu Knows Who The Boss Is' After Phone Call

Trump: 'Netanyahu Knows Who The Boss Is' After Phone Call

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could meet as early as next week after the US leader returns from the annual NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.

That's what Trump told Axios on Saturday after a Friday phone call, wherein the Israeli PM congratulated the American leader on the 250th Independence Day of the United States. Trump said something very interesting in the wake of the call: "We get along very good. [Netanyahu] knows who the boss is," he told Axios.

via Reuters

US-Israel relations have been deeply strained of late, given deep Israeli reluctance on the US-Iran MoU signing, as well as the US-mediated ceasefire in Lebanon.

Israel fears that the end result to a hasty peace could be a nuclear-armed Iran, and some Israeli leaders have gone so far as to say military action must not stop until there's true regime change.

"During their conversation, the Prime Minister said that the United States is a guarantor of global freedom, and that Israel greatly values the close relationship between the two nations. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump agreed to meet soon in the United States," Netanyahu's office said of the Saturday call.

On the issue of controversy over the US-Israel relationship and the push to launch Operation Epic Fury, Axios provides the following:

  • "Many of Trump's closest advisers think that Bibi was wrong about everything," a U.S. official said.
  • Trump lashed out at Netanyahu over Israel's escalation in Lebanon in a phone call last month, calling the prime minister "crazy" and accusing him of ingratitude.
  • The tensions have deepened a broader Republican schism over Israel and the war, with MAGA influencers like Tucker Carlson accusing Trump of being beholden to Netanyahu.

Indeed there seems of late a concerted White House effort to dispel this narrative. It seems that Trump is at least now more conscientious about it, given he's publicly seeking to assure Americans that Bibi "knows who the boss is."

A prior Trump-Bibi call in June didn't go so well. At that time reports based on US officials indicated that President Trump ripped into Netanyahu, cussing at him and the president essentially 'steamrolled' him - angry over breaking the Lebanon truce and demanding that Israel's military not attack Beirut.

Trump is said to have told Netanyahu "you’re fucking crazy’" while demanding Lebanon truce: "I’m saving your ass," he also reportedly said. Israeli officials have sought to downplay these negative reports...

Since then, the US has essentially forced Israel to acknowledge the Lebanon ceasefire - though it should be noted that the IDF occupation has been allowed to continue in southern Lebanon - and direct exchanges of missile fire between Tehran and Tel Aviv has been silenced.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 22:45

Charlie Kirk Assassination Case Heads For Key Hearing

Charlie Kirk Assassination Case Heads For Key Hearing

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

After months of wrangling, the case of Charlie Kirk's alleged assassin, Tyler James Robinson, is now headed toward its first major legal threshold.

Tyler Robinson, accused of killing conservative commentator Charlie Kirk last year, appears during a hearing in Utah's Fourth District Court in Provo, Utah, on Dec. 11, 2025. Rick Egan/The Salt Lake Tribune via AP, Pool

Robinson, 23, is accused of fatally shooting Kirk, the 31-year-old founder of the conservative Turning Point USA youth movement, while Kirk spoke at Utah Valley University on Sept. 10, 2025.

During a four-day proceeding set to begin on July 6 in a Utah courtroom, prosecutors must reveal some of the evidence they have against Robinson.

This preliminary hearing requires the evidence to pass two key tests. And the judge overseeing the case has set strict rules for people who will be attending, including news crews.

Here is what to expect, based on general legal principles, Utah law, and rulings from Utah Fourth District Court Judge Tony Graf Jr.

Why The Hearing Matters

Not all U.S. criminal courts use a preliminary hearing to put evidence through an initial screening, but Utah courts do.

The hearing is like a "mini trial," which comes with advantages and disadvantages for both sides in a criminal case.

Prosecutors have already shared much evidence with Robinson's lawyers, as criminal law requires. But this hearing requires them to show their cards more specifically.

That will give defense lawyers a chance to poke holes in some of the evidence that prosecutors have against Robinson.

However, prosecutors have a wild card in their favor. At this hearing, they may present some evidence that would not be allowed during a trial.

In Utah, that evidence includes "reliable hearsay" testimony - statements that a witness heard someone else make. Usually, hearsay is forbidden, and witnesses must testify only about what they personally stated or observed.

The law requires prosecutors to present enough evidence to persuade Graf that they have "probable cause." That consists of two parts: First, they must provide sufficient proof that a reasonable person could conclude that the alleged crimes happened. Second, that evidence must show that the accused probably committed those offenses.

Open To The Public, With Restrictions

Members of the public and news reporters are allowed to attend the preliminary hearing, the judge ruled on June 1, despite objections from Robinson's lawyers. They wanted to close all or part of the hearing.

Instead, access will be granted, subject to limited seating and strict rules, the judge said. He gave a lengthy explanation of the rules on June 26.

The rules are necessary, he said, to ensure everyone's "safety and well-being" and to preserve fair trial rights for Robinson, as well as for Kirk's widow, Erika Kirk.

No one - except specified people - will be allowed to bring electronic devices to Graf's courtroom in Provo, Utah; he is also banning the devices from the entire fourth floor of that building, outside his courtroom.

People who are exempt from that rule include attorneys and their support staff, as well as media personnel who receive Graf's approval.

"In addition, every person who will be in attendance will be afforded the dignity and respect due to them," Graf said.

He cited an order he issued on Sept. 24, 2025, regarding courtroom decorum.

"All spectators shall be quiet, civil, and orderly," Graf said. "Spectators shall not engage in any distracting, disruptive, provocative, disrespectful, uncivil, or threatening behavior of any kind."

Further, he is forbidding attendees from making any gestures, including shaking or nodding heads to signal disagreement or agreement with statements.

No one is allowed "to wear or display pins, buttons, signs, clothing, or photographs expressing support for or against any person," Graf said.

"The court respectfully asks all persons seeking admission to conduct themselves in an orderly and respectful manner while court staff and security personnel carry out their responsibilities, including security screening and the assignment of wristbands for entry into the hearing," he said.

What Could Happen Next?

Because probable cause is considered a low bar to clear, it is rare for a case to fail at the preliminary hearing stage.

But if that does happen, the case probably would continue after a delay. Prosecutors would be allowed to add more evidence and refile the charges.

Most preliminary hearings end with the case being "bound over" for trial.

At trial, the standard of proof that prosecutors must meet is the highest in the criminal justice system. It is "beyond a reasonable doubt."

This standard requires "more certainty than any other burden of proof in law," according to Cornell Law School's Legal Information Institute.

Beyond a reasonable doubt does not mean beyond all imaginary doubt. It means that the judge or jury is "firmly convinced" that the defendant committed the alleged crimes.

If Robinson is convicted as charged, he could face the death penalty.

Graf on June 26 rejected defense lawyers' request to remove the death penalty as an option. However, he found prosecutors in contempt because they made statements about being able to clear the "reasonable doubt" hurdle.

To remedy that violation of his order prohibiting such an out-of-court statement, the judge said he will work with attorneys on both sides.

They will put together an extra detailed jury selection questionnaire, and a larger pool of potential jurors might need to be summoned, Graf said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 22:10

On 250th Anniversary, A Look Back At Gun Ownership In America

On 250th Anniversary, A Look Back At Gun Ownership In America

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

The Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution guarantees what may be the most uniquely American of all rights. Those 27 words have inspired millions of words in thousands of debates over the Amendment's meaning and what, if any, limits may apply.

"The Shot Heard 'Round the World," 2009, by Domenick D'Andrea. Public Domain

There is no question that firearms played a pivotal role in the birth and growth of the United States of America.

From the Pilgrims' matchlock muskets and the six shooters carried by cowboys, to the modern semiautomatic rifles wielded by Korean business owners in the Los Angeles riots of 1992, guns are an integral part of American culture.

The right to keep and bear arms is unique, says Amy Swearer, a senior legal fellow with Advancing American Freedom and Second Amendment scholar.

"It's an incredibly short list [of countries that recognize the right to own guns], and there are none of them have anything in theory or practice that is what I would say [is] a true equivalent of the American right to keep and bear arms," Swearer told The Epoch Times.

Based on sales data, permit applications, background checks and other factors, there are an estimated 400 million to 500 million firearms in civilian hands in the United States, according to the Sixguns Fraternity. This is an average of two firearms for every person over age 18.

Yet, while America celebrates 250 years as a society that honors the individual right to keep and bear arms, gun ownership remains one of the nation's most divisive issues.

Gun control groups did not respond to emails seeking comment for this article, but many have posted their concerns online. Gun control advocates say violence intervention strategies, strict gun control - including bans - and tighter regulation of the firearms industry are elements of common-sense gun laws.

They point to high-profile stories of mass shootings, school shootings, and violent crime involving firearms.

"The gun homicide rate in the U.S. is 26 times higher than that of other developed countries, but research shows that common-sense public safety laws can reduce gun violence and save lives," Everytown for Gun Safety, states on its website.

The group, along with others, say gunshots are the number one cause of death for American children.

The Centers for Disease Prevention and Control reports that the top cause of death for children between 1- and 17-years-old are "unintentional injuries." Matthew Garnett with the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, defines unintentional injury as, deaths from fatal injuries that were "unintended, unplanned, and did not occur on purpose."

"Unintentional injury deaths include a wide array of mechanisms, with the four most common being: poisoning, motor vehicle crashes, drowning, and falls," Garnett wrote.

Second Amendment activists say gun control policies harm law abiding citizens rather than criminals. They say the data presented by gun control organizations are cherry-picked or manipulated to get the desired result.

Gun Owners of America says Everytown skews its data on children killed by firearms because it includes 18- and 19-year-olds. Generally, most data involving children only includes children aged 1 to 17, while 18- and 19-year-olds are considered adults.

Public safety has always played a role in American gun legislation, says Robert J. Spitzer, professor emeritus at the State University of New York, College at Cortland.

This includes laws on where and how guns could be carried, who could own them, and which arms are protected by the Second Amendment.

Spitzer has written extensively on the Second Amendment. In a 2017 article published by Duke University, "Gun Law History in the United States and Second Amendment Rights," he describes gun laws from pre-Revolutionary times to the modern day.

He contends that while America has a "wild west" reputation, it has also worked to tame that reputation. Spitzer wrote that "stand-your-ground" laws, the unlicensed carry of firearms, allowing those younger than 21 to legally carry a gun in public, and similar policies, do not align with America's tradition of gun regulation.

"[These] laws are not a return to the past. They are a refutation of America's past, and a determined march away from America's gun regulation tradition," Spitzer wrote. "And these changes have nothing to do with improving safety or security in society, but everything to do with politics."

So, what did the founders have to say? How did they view guns and their impact on public safety? And what route have the courts taken in trying to answer those questions?

Founding View Of Guns

The founders appear to have considered the ability to defend oneself a responsibility as much as a right. As Englishmen and lawyers, they studied English Common Law. Most of them were familiar with the "Commentaries on the Laws of England," by Sir William Blackstone.

Blackstone was an English jurist and legal scholar. His commentaries are considered an authoritative text when it comes to English law.

In the first chapter, Blackstone outlines the process for relief when a person's rights are violated or they are violently attacked. The first avenue is the court and the law, according to Blackstone. If that fails, the next step is a petition to the King and Parliament, and "lastly to the right of having and using arms for self-preservation and defense."

The right to be armed for self-defense underpinned legal arguments John Adams, Founding Father and second U.S. president, made when defending British soldiers charged with murder in the 1770 "Boston Massacre." His argument, voiced before there was a second amendment, informs his, and other founders', world view on the matter.

On March 5, 1770, a group of colonists was berating a British soldier guarding the Customs House in Boston. British Army Capt. Thomas Preston brought a squad of seven soldiers to support the lone guard.

As the situation grew tense, one of the soldiers fired his musket. Thinking the order to fire had been given, the others followed suit. Three colonists, including a black sailor named Crispus Attucks, were killed immediately. Two others died later.

Adams, Josiah Quincy Jr., and Robert Auchmuty, Jr., represented Preston in court. Adams argued that the soldiers had every reason to believe they were in danger.

"Here every private person is authorized to arm himself, and on the strength of this authority, I do not deny the inhabitants had a right to arm themselves at that time, for their defence, not for offence, that distinction is material and must be attended to," Adams stated.

Preston was acquitted of his murder charges.

Civilian gun ownership is necessary for a "well-regulated militia," according to Stephen Halbrook, a Fairfax, Virginia-based attorney and senior fellow with the Independent Institute.

"It was considered a duty," Halbrook told The Epoch Times.

Halbrook pointed out that the first settlement at Jamestown, Virginia, almost failed partly because of conflict with Indians who were hostile to the colonists.

"You had a responsibility ... to have arms in your home and basically to carry them around with you. After the Constitution comes into being in 1792 the federal militia laws ... required, that every able-bodied white male citizen would have to provide arms for himself and enroll in the militia, and to go when called to duty," Halbrook said.

This was outlined by Alexander Hamilton in Federalist Paper No. 29. Hamilton explained that the militia consists of armed residents prepared to defend themselves and their communities.

According to Hamilton, "well-regulated" means the members will "acquire the degree of proficiency in military functions which would be essential to their usefulness." While Hamilton called on the federal government to support the militias, he stressed that they would operate under local authority.

"Reserving to the states respectively the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress," Hamilton wrote.

The federal government has a militia law, 10 U.S. Code § 246 - Militia: Composition and Classes, as do 45 states.

The federal law states that the unorganized militia is made up of all able-bodied males between the ages of 17 and 45 who are not members of the National Guard or Naval Militia, and females who are members of the National Guard and Naval Militia.

Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia do not have established militias. Twenty-two states have active militias, though Connecticut's militia is ceremonial. The rest of the state militias are inactive unless they are called to service.

Self-Defense

Swearer said that America has drifted away from the original intent of the militias. But there have been militia-style actions.

During the 1992 Los Angeles riots that erupted after four police officers were acquitted of charges stemming from the March 3, 1991, beating of Rodney King, several Korean business and property owners took up arms to defend their homes and businesses.

As the riots spread into the area known as Koreatown, many business owners and residents noticed that police were standing by, watching. So, the Korean residents armed themselves, got on their roofs, and held off the rioters. They became known as the "Rooftop Koreans."

"It is arguably a militia usage. It's that same understanding of the people protecting themselves when the government fails to protect them," Swearer said.

It was hardly the first time Americans armed themselves to defend their property. The United States was born in armed conflict.

Halbrook said that around the time of the Boston Massacre, the first gun control laws were passed. As Spitzer noted in his article, many of the laws were focused on public safety.

Firearms regulations from this era covered brandishing firearms, bans on certain types of weapons, carry restrictions, dueling, hunting, inspection of gun manufacturing facilities, and storage requirements, and the responsible discharge of firearms, among others.

There were also laws on who could possess guns. Halbrook said the main objective was to prevent certain groups from being armed.

For example, in his article, Spitzer points out that in 1619 the first General Assembly made it illegal to sell guns, powder, or shot, to Indians. A person convicted under the law faced hanging.

As part of a law requiring church attendance, the General Assembly included language requiring that "all such as bear arms shall bring their pieces, swords, powder and shot." Though not specified in the law, the likely reason for this requirement is to defend the colonists gathered in the church.

These early gun prohibitions were not focused as much on the guns as who could carry them. And, like the colonial governments, America has prohibitions on who can keep and bear arms.

Today, as in those early days, the United States prevents felons, the mentally ill, and others who could be considered dangerous to society from legally owning firearms. This was upheld in the 1980 U.S. Supreme Court case, Lewis v. U.S.

In that case, the court ruled that under the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, "the fact of a felony conviction imposes firearm disability until the conviction is vacated or the felon is relieved of his disability by some affirmative action," such as having his rights legally restored.

This legal concept was affirmed in the June 2024 decision in United States v. Rahimi, when the court ruled that disarming people deemed by a court to be dangerous aligns with the Second Amendment.

According to the court record, Zackey Rahimi, of Arlington, Texas, abused his girlfriend. Subsequently, she won a domestic violence restraining order against him. Rahimi was disarmed under 18 USC 922 (g) (8), the federal law that bars people under such an order from possessing or purchasing firearms.

After agreeing to the order, he assaulted another woman and was involved in at least five shootings. His firearms were confiscated because of the restraining order. Rahimi appealed the confiscation to the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which found the law unconstitutional.

The Supreme Court reversed that.

"Since the Founding, the Nation's firearm laws have included regulations to stop individuals who threaten physical harm to others from misusing firearms," the decision states. "As applied to the facts here, Section 922(g)(8) fits within this tradition."

In a subsequent case, United States v. Hemani, the court in June 2026 rejected the idea that the federal government could automatically strip someone of their right to bear arms based on the mere fact that they took drugs. Writing for the majority, Justice Neil Gorsuch indicated more consideration was needed over whether the individual had lost their capacity to reason.

Gentleman's Honor

Halford said it wasn't until the early 19th Century that the first laws resembling modern gun control were passed. He said that in 1813 Kentucky and Louisiana passed laws prohibiting the concealed carry of weapons, including knives and other weapons.

He pointed out that the first such laws were passed in the South, but it was years before northern states passed similar laws. Halbrook said the new law had more to do with the concept of a Southern gentleman's honor.

"In Kentucky ... you had the code of dueling ... and it would be ungentlemanly to carry an arm concealed," Halbrook said. "It was kind of a macho thing ... only a person with bad intentions would hide [his weapons]."

Prohibitions based on politics, race, and similar factors did not fare well with the judicial system.

In the 1857 Dred Scott decision, the Supreme Court found that slaves were not citizens and did not have Constitutional rights, including Second Amendment rights.

"It cannot be believed that the large slaveholding States regarded them as included in the word citizens ... to keep and carry arms wherever they went," the decision reads in part.

In 1865, the Freedman's Bureau was established to ensure that freed slaves enjoyed the same civil rights as other Americans, including their Second Amendment rights. Though there were subsequent attempts to deny black Americans their civil rights, the court has generally ruled those laws unconstitutional.

In the following decades, a variety of gun laws were passed with the objective of promoting safety or preventing crime. Three of the most notable are the National Firearms Act of 1934, the Gun Control Act of 1968, and the Firearms Owners Protection Act of 1986.

The National Firearms Act was a response to organized crime in the 1920s and 1930s. The law designated some weapons as dangerous or unusual. These included fully automatic machine guns, short-barreled rifles and shotguns, and silencers.

Backers of the law knew it was doomed as a gun-control measure. So, it was passed as Congress exercising its taxing authority. But, according to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) website, the tax was a secondary purpose.

"Its underlying purpose was to curtail, if not prohibit, transactions in [National Firearms Act] firearms," the website states.

Only Federal Firearms License holders who pay a $200 tax can deal in National Firearms Act items. The tax, which remained $200 until last year when it was reduced to $0, was meant to inhibit ownership of National Firearms Act items.

The Gun Control Act corrected the constitutional problems in the National Firearms Act.

In 1968, the Supreme Court found in Haynes v. United States that forcing a person to register a National Firearms Act item, then prosecuting that person using information from the registration process violated the Fifth Amendment's protection against self-incrimination.

In 1986, the Firearm Owners' Protection Act was enacted. It added to the definition of "silencer" combinations of parts, and any part to make a silencer to the list of National Firearms Act items. It also prohibited the transfer or ownership of machine guns except for state and law enforcement agencies, and machine guns lawfully owned prior to May 19, 1986.

But in the 2000s, three landmark decisions was issued that turned the gun debate upside down.

Supreme Court Returns To History

Prior to 2008, the courts used a two-step "means test" to determine if a gun law was constitutional. Under this method, courts considered whether a law would obtain a favorable objective - such as crime reduction - even if it did not strictly align with the text of the Second Amendment.

It was accepted that a law might infringe on the right, but that could be acceptable if the end result outweighed the degree of restriction.

In its June 2022 decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen the court said the two-step approach was excessive.

By a 6-3 vote, the court concluded that the standard for applying the Second Amendment was determining whether the gun control policy was consistent with the nation's history and tradition. The court also found that New York State's licensing scheme, along with prohibitions on carrying guns in public, were unconstitutional.

Writing for the majority, Justice Clarence Thomas said any gun control law must align with the Second Amendment's language and have a "historical analog" from the time of the Amendment's ratification to pass constitutional muster.

This meant that if the law covered the activity listed in the amendment, specifically keeping and bear arms, it was unconstitutional unless a similar law existed around the time of the amendment's ratification.

The Bruen decision shook the gun debate and will impact Second Amendment cases for years to come. Two other Supreme Court rulings helped set the stage for the landmark decision.

In the 2008 case of District of Columbia v. Heller, the high court ruled that the Washington's prohibition on handguns, and requirements that privately owned guns be kept unloaded under lock and key, violated the Second Amendment.

In Heller, the court found that the Amendment protects an individual right to carry firearms for protection, which the District's law made all but impossible.

Then on June 28, 2010, the Supreme court ruled 5-4, in MacDonald v. Chicago, that the Second Amendment applied to state and local governments, as well as to the federal government.

Post-Bruen Developments

After Bruen, some states with strict gun laws, including New York, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Rhode Island, and others doubled down passing so-called "Bruen response laws."

Hawaii implemented a law prohibiting firearms on all private property open to the public unless the property owner gives express permission to gun owners to carry on their property.

The Supreme Court recently struck down that law in Wolford v. Lopez, ruling that it placed an undue burden on licensed gun owners.

Rhode Island, Virginia, and Illinois banned certain semiautomatic firearms, so-called assault weapons. New York and California instituted background checks for ammunition purchases in 2023.

As she announced the ammunition background check law, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said her state was dedicated to promoting gun safety.

"We know this has nothing to do with lawful gun owners, nothing to do with them at all. These are people who have been convicted of felonies or other categories of people that should be prohibited from firearms and ammunition," she said.

At the time, President Joe Biden was in the White House and had successfully implemented much of his agenda to increase firearms regulation. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which included funding for violence intervention programs as well as stronger gun control laws, was enacted in 2022.

Biden opened an Office of Gun Violence Prevention in the White House. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives was taking a much tougher stand on regulating firearms manufacturers and dealers through its zero-tolerance policy, and he was making strides toward implementing universal background checks.

Gun rights advocates, on the other hand, have been energized by the Supreme Court decisions, as well as what they consider to be a pro-Second Amendment president in Donald Trump.

Trump is currently 18 months into his second term. He closed the office in the White House, dismantled almost all of Biden's gun control programs and opened a Second Amendment office in the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division.

Gun rights activists said there is more to be done. They are calling for the repeal of the National Firearms Act and Gun Control Act, the shutdown of the ATF, and the destruction of billions of gun sales records, which they say the agency is using to build an illegal registry.

The ATF denies it has such a registry.

The experts say that, like all the other constitutional rights, the Second Amendment will continue to be examined and possibly limited or expanded.

Halbrook offered advice for gun owners that could be applied to either side of the debate.

"They have to pay attention to politics, they have to vote, they have to support candidates who are going to be on their side, and they have to vote against those who are against them," Halbrook said.

The second amendment is spelled on a U.S. flag in a gun store in Rio Rico, Santa Cruz County, Ariz., on Sept. 17, 2025. Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 21:00

South Korea Plans Investment Fund From Chip Tax Revenue

South Korea Plans Investment Fund From Chip Tax Revenue

At a time when chip and memory companies are disproportionately receiving the benefits of hundreds of billions in capex, and a growing number of politicians are consider ways to socialize these outsized gains, Yonhap News reported that South Korea plans to create an investment fund using tax revenue from its burgeoning semiconductor industry to finance long-term economic growth.

In a senior-level meeting of the government and the ruling party, presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik said the additional revenue from the country’s chip industry should be invested for future growth, the news agency reported.

“By launching the fund with the extra tax revenue, we aim to make bold investments for the future, including supporting the three mega projects, creating future growth engines, addressing K-shaped polarization, and supporting housing, startups and jobs for those in their 20s and 30s,” Kang said.

South Korea recently unveiled its three mega projects initiative, which involves significant investment in semiconductors, physical AI and data centers.

Investments of at least 1,350 trillion won ($880 billion) from companies including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be made, as the government looks to strengthen the country’s long-term competitiveness and position itself as an AI powerhouse.

Samsung Group and SK Group said they plan to build two chipmaking plants apiece in the southwest for a total of 800 trillion won, to rapidly expand production capacity to meet increasing demand. South Korea also announced 550 trillion won of investment from companies including internet leader Naver Corp. to build 8.4 gigawatts of AI data-center capacity by 2029.

The country aims to double its memory production capacity within five years and secure world-class manufacturing capabilities to pull far ahead of competing nations, the industry ministry said in a statement. South Korea must move faster than its global rivals to secure leadership in chips, data centers and physical AI, President Lee Jae Myung said at a briefing where he called the Samsung and SK Hynix leaders “national heroes.” 

Kang said the mega projects will help create new growth engines to determine the country’s future over the next 20 to 30 years, Yonhap added.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 20:58

Nvidia Supplier Hon Hai Sales Beat As Continued AI Demand Offsets Consumer Electronics Decline

Nvidia Supplier Hon Hai Sales Beat As Continued AI Demand Offsets Consumer Electronics Decline

Nvidia’s server assembly partner Hon Hai Precision Industry reported a bigger-than-expected 40% jump in quarterly sales and said AI demand is growing further, according to Bloomberg. 

Hon Hai’s revenue grew to NT$2.51 trillion ($79 billion) in the three months to June, beating the average of analyst estimates of NT$2.37 trillion. Demand for AI-related products drove sales, compensating for a slight decline in demand from consumer electronics and computing products, where soaring memory prices have resulted in widespread demand destruction.

Shipments of AI racks are expected to maintain their momentum in the current quarter, while demand for information and communications technology products is entering peak season, the company said in a statement Sunday quoted by Bloomberg. Overall operations are expected to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.

Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn, has established itself as a key AI hardware player by assembling servers that house Nvidia accelerators. This comes as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft are setting aside about $725 billion for AI spending this year, a total which Goldman believes could rise as high as $1.4 trillion in 2027, even as warnings abound about overcapacity and questions about how to monetize the technology grow louder.

In March, the Taiwanese company projected strong sales growth in 2026, fueled by sustained AI momentum. It derives a significant chunk of sales from assembling Apple’s iPhones and MacBooks and is in a position to benefit from any positive reception for the latest iPhone 17 product family, although in light of the upcoming price hikes across Apple products it remains to be seen what consumer reception will be for the higher-priced products.

But like many electronics manufacturers, Hon Hai faces a shortage of memory chips used in a wide range of products from smartphones to PCs and servers. Executives have said the crunch should not significantly impact demand for premium handset and computer products the company makes for major customers.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 20:34

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