When The Rule Of Law Fails

Authored by Madge Waggy,

What follows emerges from seventeen months of examination into procedural collapses, constitutional erosions, and institutional betrayals that have accelerated beyond the capacity of conventional reportage to capture. Sources include former jurists who resigned rather than participate in predetermined outcomes, law enforcement officials who documented unlawful commands, and archival materials that reveal pattern precedents for contemporary ruptures. We present this analysis not to provoke despair, but to examine the anatomy of dissolution while recognition might still permit response. The reader is advised that the trajectory described has proceeded beyond the point where electoral mechanisms offer remedy, and that preparation for post-constitutional conditions constitutes rational response to empirical observation.

The Fracturing: When Marble Crumbles Beneath Velvet

Observe the edifice. Not the facade of columned grandeur that photographs well for tourist brochures, but the load-bearing structures that sustain civic order. The mortar between stones has been leaching for decades, replaced with expedient compounds that harden briefly then powder under pressure. What appears solid to casual inspection reveals, upon closer examination, the honeycombed fragility of termite-gnawed timber.

The rule of law - that abstraction upon which millions have wagered their lives, their fortunes, their sacred honor - has not been abolished. Far more insidiously, it has been instrumentalized. Transformed from constraint upon power into weapon wielded by power. The distinction matters. Abolition would provoke resistance. Instrumentalization induces learned helplessness, the conditioned response of laboratory animals who no longer attempt escape because previous attempts have been punished.

Consider the mechanism. Statutes remain on codified pages. Precedents still fill bound volumes. Theatrical performances of judicial process continue in robed solemnity. But the outcomes - the actual distribution of force, property, liberty - now proceed according to criteria that cannot be publicly acknowledged without unraveling the legitimacy upon which enforcement depends. The law has become Schrodinger’s cat: simultaneously alive and dead, its state determined only upon observation, and then retroactively justified through reasoning so tortured it would extract confessions from stone.

Heavy stillness pervades courthouse corridors where verdicts arrive prepackaged. Muffled air absorbs the footsteps of attorneys who have learned that vigorous advocacy risks bar sanctions, that certain defendants cannot be acquitted regardless of evidence, that particular prosecutions must proceed regardless of merit. Where once adversarial collision generated truth through friction, now choreographed collusion produces predetermined outcomes with the mechanical inevitability of assembly-line fabrication.

The Inversion: How Protection Became Predation

Examine the metamorphosis of institutions whose founding purpose was circumscription of state violence. Police forces established to apprehend actual predators now function as extraction mechanisms, their revenue-generation priorities transforming citizens into quarry. Courts erected to adjudicate disputes now operate as processing facilities, their dockets clogged with statutory violations that lack injured parties, their calendars dominated by plea arrangements that obviate evidentiary examination. Legislatures convened to express popular will now manufacture complexity so impenetrable that compliance becomes impossible, thereby manufacturing the criminality that justifies expansion.

The inversion is nearly complete. The FBI - originally chartered to investigate interstate criminality - now devotes substantial resources to manufacturing terrorism through entrapment of vulnerable individuals, then publicizing these manufactured plots as justification for expanded surveillance. The IRS - created to fund legitimate governance - now functions as political enforcement arm, its audit selections targeting ideological opponents with statistical improbability that defies random explanation. The regulatory apparatus - ostensibly protecting consumers - now serves as barrier to entry for competitors of established conglomerates, its compliance costs crushing small enterprise while manageable for entities that can afford dedicated compliance departments.

Each institution, examined individually, displays symptoms of capture. Examined collectively, they reveal systemic transformation. The heavy stillness of bureaucratic inertia now serves not popular interest but consolidated power. The muffled air of administrative process now muffles dissent rather than amplifying resolution. Where footsteps once dissolved into the marble floors of public buildings as citizens approached for redress, now those same footsteps echo ominously as warnings to others who might seek similar remedy.

The Dissolution: Precedents of Collapse

Historical memory - when not actively suppressed - offers instruction. Rome’s transition from republic to imperium did not occur through single coup but through incremental usurpations, each justified by emergency, each ratified by senatorial acquiescence, each establishing precedent for subsequent expansion. The Weimar Republic’s dissolution proceeded through “legal” mechanisms: emergency decrees, enabling acts, judicial appointments that transformed interpretation rather than overturning text. The Soviet Union’s constitutional guarantees - extensive on paper - provided no protection against party-state fusion that rendered law irrelevant to power.

American exceptionalism - the comforting delusion that geography or founding documents confer immunity to these patterns - has prevented recognition of their local manifestation. But the patterns are unmistakable to unprejudiced observation. Executive orders that bypass legislative process. Judicial opinions that discover meanings in constitutional text invisible to centuries of prior readers. Administrative regulations that carry criminal penalties despite absent legislative authorization. Each instance, defended as isolated necessity, contributes to cumulative precedent that transforms limited government into unlimited discretion.

The weathered limestone arches of Monticello and Independence Hall - physical remnants of founding generation aspirations - now frame populations whose understanding of those aspirations has been systematically eroded through educational institutions that treat constitutional limitations as obstacles to be overcome rather than protections to be preserved. The brutalist concrete contours of contemporary government buildings - deliberately imposing, alienating, inhuman - materialize the relationship between state and citizen that has replaced the founding vision: not service but domination, not representation but management, not consent but submission.

The Documentation: Evidence Accumulating in Shadows

Paper trails exist for those willing to excavate. Memoranda from intelligence agencies acknowledging warrantless surveillance of domestic communications. Emails between regulatory officials and regulated entities arranging enforcement forbearance in exchange for political contributions. Testimony from inspectors general describing evidence destruction and witness intimidation. Each document, individually, might be dismissed as aberration. Collectively, they constitute pattern.

Pattern recognition requires connecting dots that institutional gatekeepers insist remain separate. The prosecutor who declines to charge politically connected defendants while pursuing vindictive prosecutions of ideological opponents. The judge who grants injunctions against executive action when initiated by one party while denying identical relief when sought by another. The agency that expedites permits for favored projects while interminably delaying competitors through “environmental review” that never concludes. The dots connect into constellations that map the actual distribution of power, regardless of formal organizational charts.

Heavy stillness settles upon archives where these documents molder, their FOIA requests buried under procedural delay, their whistleblower origins punished through professional destruction, their contents dismissed by media organs that function as stenographers for power rather than interrogators of it. Muffled air chokes the corridors where investigators once pursued corruption regardless of partisan affiliation, before such pursuit became itself career-limiting. Where footsteps once dissolved into purposeful stride toward accountability, now they falter, hesitate, retreat.

The Mechanism: How Legitimacy Dissolves Without Announcement

Governments do not typically announce their own termination. They demonstrate it through behavior that renders their own rules optional, their own constraints ignorable, their own legitimacy claims farcical. The demonstration accumulates gradually, each instance building upon predecessors, until the accumulation reaches critical mass where recognition becomes unavoidable.

That mass approaches. Consider: the executive who declares emergencies that do not exist, then exercises powers that emergencies justify. The legislature that delegates its lawmaking authority to unelected administrators, then expresses outrage at administrative outcomes while retaining delegation. The judiciary that discovers rights invisible to constitutional text while ignoring rights explicitly enumerated. The law enforcement that enforces against disfavored groups while ignoring identical conduct by favored groups. The taxation that extracts for purposes never authorized, through mechanisms never legislated, from targets never represented.

Each instance, individually, might be rationalized. Collectively, they announce that the rules apply only to those who lack power to exempt themselves. And once that announcement becomes unmistakable - once the population recognizes that compliance is for suckers, that the system is rigged, that the game is fixed - the final dissolution accelerates. Not through revolution but through withdrawal. The productive cease producing. The cooperative cease cooperating. The law-abiding cease abiding. The social fabric - already threadbare - shreds entirely.

The Precipice: Recognition and Its Consequences

Those who recognize pattern face unenviable choice. Vocal acknowledgment risks targeting. Silent acquiescence enables continuation. Preparation without announcement offers only partial protection, and that protection temporary. The heavy stillness that pervades recognition is not peaceful contemplation but coiled tension, the muffled air of suppressed violence that precedes rupture.

Historical precedent suggests that governmental dissolution - when it arrives - proceeds rapidly once initiated. Not gradually, but catastrophically. The institutions that seemed permanent reveal their contingency. The protections that seemed guaranteed prove illusory. The authorities that commanded respect command only fear, then not even that. The weathered limestone arches crumble. The brutalist concrete contours crack. Where footsteps once dissolved into ordered procession, now they stampede toward exits that prove too narrow, too few, too late.

Preparation for such moments requires more than material stockpiling. It requires psychological adjustment to conditions where legal recourse no longer exists, where institutional protection has evaporated, where self-reliance becomes not virtue but necessity. The adjustment is painful for generations conditioned to believe that authority exists to serve them, that systems function to protect them, that rules apply equally to powerful and powerless.

That belief - already strained to breaking - will not survive the next phase. The recognition that it was always belief rather than fact, always hope rather than observation, always delusion rather than reality, constitutes the final trauma that precedes either submission or resistance. The choice between those outcomes is being made now, in countless individual decisions that aggregate into civilizational trajectory, even as the heavy stillness persists, the muffled air thickens, and footsteps dissolve not into purpose but into paralysis.

The warning has been issued. The pattern has been documented. The precipice has been reached. What follows is not prediction but observation: the rule of law has failed. The government that claimed its protection has ended, not with announcement, but with demonstration. Recognition of that ending - now unavoidable - constitutes the beginning of whatever comes next.

This article was originally published on MadgeWaggy.blogspot.com. h/t Lew Rockwell

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 22:10

Inside America's Drone Arms Race: What Industry Experts See Ahead Of Procurement Supercycle

Our coverage of America's Group 1 to Group 3 drone industry has centered on Unusual Machines and Ondas, two companies positioned to reap the benefits from what could become a historic procurement cycle next year. The catalyst is the Department of War's Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, which is preparing to direct $55 billion toward autonomous systems. If that spending materializes as planned, companies offering NDAA-compliant drones and drone components, scalable manufacturing capacity, and field-ready platforms should be best positioned to capture the coming flood of orders.

For more clarity on the drone space, Canaccord Genuity recently hosted the "Drone Dominion" panel, which included executives from AeroVironment, Leonardo DRS, Unusual Machines, Codan Tactical Communications, and Juno Industries.

"The panel opened with a consensus that drone warfare has shifted from individual aircraft for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance applications to massed, expendable strike systems with growing remote autonomy," Austin Moeller, Canaccord Genuity's senior aerospace and defense technology equity-research analyst, wrote in a note Thursday.

Moeller's summary of the panel discussion provides investors with a useful framework for understanding the drone space and identifying the companies best positioned to benefit from a potential procurement supercycle, as demand for Group 1 to Group 3 drones, counter-UAS systems, and domestically sourced NDAA-compliant parts is poised to accelerate.

Drone dominion

We hosted management of Leonardo DRS (DRS), AeroVironment (AVAV), Unusual Machines (UMAC), Codan DTC, and Juno Industries at the 46th Annual Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference in Boston for a Drone/C-UAS panel discussion. Our panel included Leonardo DRS CEO John Baylouny, AeroVironment COO Dr. Robert Smith, Unusual Machines COO Drew Camden, Codan Tactical Communications President and Executive General Manager Paul Sangster, and former Canadian Minister of National Defense and Juno Industries Executive Chairman, Harjit Sajjan. The panel discussed how drone warfare has evolved from being primarily an ISR platform to widespread adoption as autonomous and expendable/attritable tactical and one-way attack systems, along with the corresponding urgent need for counter-UAS layered air defenses, secure supply chains, and integrated battlefield C2 systems and AI edge compute.

The panel opened with a consensus that drone warfare has shifted from individual aircraft for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance applications to massed, expendable strike systems with growing remote autonomy. John Baylouny stated that drones are now weapons that must make sense of the battlefield, and Harjit Sajjan emphasized that integrating sensors into battle management systems to enable fusion/processing of data is central to making those strike capabilities practical and useful. The panel agreed this transition changes not only platform design but also how forces employ drones; for instance, moving from a handful of high-end assets to large numbers of lower-cost munitions used en masse (swarms) to saturate and overwhelm air defenses and targets. This dynamic forces the industry to prioritize rapid iteration and high-volume manufacturing, modular payloads, and mission-tailored autonomy so systems can be adopted and modified quickly as tactics and countermeasures evolve in the field.

The panel agreed that battlefield advantage now depends on resilient, secure command-and-control (C2) networks that connect drones, sensors, weapons platforms, and operators into rapid decision-making workflows. Paul Sangster explained that today's battlefield is far more networked, requiring secure mesh communications that tie drones, sensors, and vehicles into rapid decision loops. Dr. Rob Smith and the others noted that the tactical advantage now comes from how quickly collected sensor data can be communicated to warfighters and platforms and acted upon, which has elevated architecture, encryption, and waveform design to operational-level priorities. The panel emphasized that interoperability is a prerequisite for scaling effective multi-platform operations. Speakers warned that contested-spectrum environments and adversary cyber-attack tactics could quickly degrade the benefits of massed drone operations unless resilience and redundancy are built into C2 designs.

Counter-UAS defenses being layered and multi-modal were stressed by the panel. Mr. Baylouny described systems combining radar, IR identification, and multiple effectors (e.g., DRS' Sgt. Stout Stryker air artillery Mission Equipment Package). Dr. Smith outlined a layered approach beginning with Radio Frequency (RF) detection and Electronic Warfare (EW) at standoff ranges, then lasers for cost-effective engagement within line-of-sight, and kinetic interceptors when necessary. Speakers emphasized mobility and integrated C2 so that different defeat mechanisms can be applied as threats evolve, reflecting a pragmatic view that no single technology will defeat every class of drone. As a result, the defense tech market is making investments in software/AI platforms, sensors (radar, RF, EO, IR/thermal), directed energy, and affordable kinetic interceptors to create adaptable defense mechanisms for various defensive scenarios for both point-defense and on-the-move.

Drew Camden and Rob Smith argued that expanding domestic production capacity requires predictable govt. demand and long-term procurement commitments. Manufacturers depend on these factors so that they can invest in facilities, automation, and long-term supplier relationships.

They stated that US systems will likely differ in capability from mass-produced foreign drones (Ukrainian drones are using Chinese Raspberry Pis and motors, for example) and that programs like Drone Dominance must create steady, multi-year volume procurement plans such as IDIQs/OTAs to make rapid scaling feasible without stopping and restarting fragile supply chains. Firms are already redirecting R&D and IRAD into domestic tooling and manufacturing readiness to shorten the timeline from prototype to fielded production and advance-purchasing materials inventory for when multi-year contracts are in place, and demand is present. In practice, policymakers must align procurement, financing, and industrial policy to reduce production ramp-up time, reduce lead times for critical components, and stabilize the supply chain.

Speakers raised concerns about deep supply chain and security/espionage concerns. The panel discussed challenges in removing Chinese-made components and subcomponents, as well as securing rare earth materials, noting that compliance requires tracing multiple layers down the supply chain. Many A&D primes have found Chinese materials or components as they investigate deeper into their supply chains. Mr. Sajjan cautioned against focusing on a single supplier or country and urged comprehensive evaluation with trusted national agencies, while Mr. Baylouny described efforts internally to look five or six layers deep to discover where materials and components truly originate from. Mr. Camden explained his company's strategy of bringing parts, and eventually, chips and motors onshore. He added that while Unusual Machines had initially been sourcing drone motors from China, the company is now doing its own winding with machines in a similar production process to Chinese drone company T-MOTOR. Dr. Smith emphasized the importance of firmware screening, cyber red-teaming, and holistic assurance practices. Addressing these challenges will require sustained funding, clearer regulatory standards (e.g., NDAA and ITAR), and closer public-private partnerships to create resilience and chain of custody among supply chains.

Finally, the panel emphasized that training and acquisition practices must be reformed to keep pace with evolving drone tactics and technologies. Mr. Baylouny argued that the old "design, build, and buy thousands" government PoR model is too slow and called for experiment-driven acquisition. Mr. Sajjan highlighted the importance of close user-developer feedback so deployed troops can refine and optimize systems with their designers for real-world missions. Mr. Camden pointed to improvised civilian and government innovations seen in Ukraine as evidence that militaries must be able to adapt new concepts and strategies quickly. Dr. Smith reinforced that predictable demand signals will also enable investment in the training, sustainment, and industrial pipelines needed to scale manufacturing capabilities. To turn technological advances into enduring operational advantage, the panel concluded that reforms across procurement and training must move forward along with technical, military, and industrial initiatives.

Our mid-June initiation report, "How To Profit From the Asymmetric Warfare Boom" ... 

... first identified the leading public and private companies positioned across the drone and counter-drone space.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 21:35

Family Structure Determines Kids' Success In School More Than Race Or Income, Researchers Say

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

While universities debate whether to skip standardized admissions tests and the University of Michigan waives first-term grades for some incoming students, new research suggests that relaxing standards might not be the best way to help kids who are struggling in school.

A science teacher works with her students at a high school in Homestead, Fla., on March 10, 2017. Rhona Wise/AFP via Getty Images

The new report by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) and the American Enterprise Institute, based on data collected from grade school students by the National Survey of Children’s Health, focused on how kids performed in school and what they said about their home life. The report found that “family structure is a more powerful predictor of school problems, academic performance, and depression than are race and poverty.”

The Department of Education’s Nation’s Report Card sorts results by race, sex or income, but it ignores family structures even though it has been collecting data on that factor since 2013, researchers said.

By contrast, the report looked at “whether or not kids are being raised by their own mother and father,” IFS Senior Fellow Brad Wilcox said, and they found that family structure was often a more important factor in children’s well-being.

“It’s pretty clear that the character of the family you grew up in is more important than the color of your skin,” Wilcox told The Epoch Times.

The study reported that 74 percent of children from “intact, married-parent families” achieved top grades (As and Bs), compared with 60 percent of children from “other family structures.” In addition, the IFS stated that children who were not raised by both biological parents were 47 percent more likely to have disciplinary problems at school and more than twice as likely to be depressed.

“Raising children in a stable married family is incredibly helpful to kids,” Wilcox said.

Graduating Without Basic Skills

The IFS’s findings come at a time when data increasingly indicates that many American children are struggling in school, and looking at grades may not even show the full picture. Reports and anecdotes suggest that even among students who receive passing grades, many are not learning basic skills.

The National Literacy Institute reports that 64 percent of America’s fourth graders do not read proficiently, and more than half of American adults now read below a sixth-grade level. And statewide reports are indicating that grade school children are being passed on to the next grade, or graduating, regardless of whether or not they have basic reading and math skills.

In 2023, Baltimore City schools announced that they would “avoid the punitive approach of failing students,” citing effects of school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. This followed a 2021 report by the state of Maryland, which said that across the state, “approximately half of the students who graduated high school and enrolled in a Maryland college or university in 2013 were assessed to need remediation in math, English, and/or reading.”

Studies in Texas, Alabama, and Missouri over the past two decades showed similar findings.

A 2025 report from the University of California-San Diego stated that the math skills of one-in-12 incoming students were below a middle school level. More recently, University of California-Berkeley mathematics professor Zvezdelina Stankova said in an op-ed for the San Francisco Standard that she had to pause her calculus course in order to teach her students middle-school level algebra and fractions.

In many cases, the response from schools has been to accommodate a lack of basic skills by loosening assessment tests, or getting rid of them altogether. Currently, more than 2,000 colleges and universities, including some Ivy League and state universities, do not require standardized tests like the SAT and the ACT as a criterion for admission.

In a possible case of “grade inflation,” Harvard University reported that 60 percent of the grades given to students in 2024–25 were As, up from about 25 percent in 2005–06. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s College of Literature, Science, and the Arts announced that starting in the fall of 2027, it would refrain from giving grades to incoming students during their first term, in order to “curb the mental health crisis unfolding among college-aged individuals.”

Family Structure

According to Wilcox, focusing on family structures is likely a better solution than inflating or avoiding grades. He advocates, among other things, making Americans aware of the difference it makes to kids’ success when both parents are raising them in a stable home.

“Not every couple who are having kids should get married and not every couple who are married should stay married,” Wilcox said. “But it’s important when it comes to having and raising kids to do what you can to be married and to stay married.”

In an effort to keep parents together, some advocates have called for the removal of what they call the “marriage penalty,” which occurs when two individuals with similar incomes marry, pushing their joint income to a level that exceeds welfare eligibility.

“Marriage penalties are one of the most damaging and misguided features of the federal welfare system,” said Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) in a statement. “For decades, Washington has punished families for getting married, discouraging responsibility and trapping parents and children in long-term dependency.”

Based on federal data, the IFS states that only 3 percent of subsidized housing serves two adults with children, compared with 30 percent that goes to a female head with children.

The IFS report states that family trends in America are tilting in a slightly positive direction, however. The proportion of American children living in married families hit a low point of 64 percent in 2012, and has since increased to 66 percent as of 2024.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 21:00

US Navy Live-Fire Tests Drone Sailboat With Missile Launcher

Once known primarily for capturing dramatic footage from inside hurricanes and tropical storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, Saildrone's autonomous surface vessels have evolved into dual-use platforms that recently demonstrated the ability to deploy Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles (JAGM).

California-based Saildrone revealed in a press release that its unmanned surface vehicle (USV) launched two Lockheed Martin JAGM missiles for the first time during the Rim of the Pacific exercise off Hawaii.

According to Saildrone, the 20-meter Surveyor drone participated in the live-fire exercise in coordination with the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.

The Surveyor used targeting data on a surrogate high-speed surface craft and executed the engagement through the Navy's Adjunct Remote Engagement System, or ARES, a remotely operated combat system. The test demonstrated how drone vessels could supplement the missile capacity of carrier strike groups while remaining deployed in contested waters, such as the Strait of Hormuz or other maritime chokepoints, for extended periods.

"This successful live-fire demonstration was the result of pairing one of the most tried and trusted munitions with the most operationally deployed class of USV on the planet," Saildrone CEO Richard Jenkins wrote in a statement.

Jenkins noted, "Not only does this deliver mission-ready, kinetic USV capability today, but it also de-risks and accelerates our journey of fitting more sophisticated kinetic capabilities, like the Mk70 launcher, to our larger platform, the Saildrone Specter. Saildrone will continue to develop our platform capabilities to meet the rapidly evolving operational requirements of our customers."

The US Navy has adopted the drone-boat warfare playbook pioneered by Ukraine, recently deploying Saronic Corsair one-way attack drone boats near the Strait of Hormuz to target Iran's Bandar Abbas naval base.

More importantly, drone-boat operations and live-fire testing signal what could be a massive Department of War procurement supercycle spanning unmanned surface vessels and Group 1 through Group 3 aerial drones.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 20:25

For Decades, The United States Ignored Latin America. All That Changed Under Trump.

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

In a pre-dawn raid in January, Delta Force soldiers burst in on a sleeping Nicolás Maduro, capturing the Venezuelan leader wanted on U.S. narco-terrorism charges.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Public Domain

The dramatic end of Maduro's control over a country emblematic of left-wing politics underscored Latin America's shift to the political right.

Since late 2025, the leadership has flipped from left to right in five Latin American countries: Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Peru, and Colombia. Uruguay did the opposite, shifting from right to left in November 2024, the same month Trump was reelected.

The conservative realignment under Trump comes as his administration has refocused on America's southern neighbors in what has been dubbed the "Donroe Doctrine" - a play on the Monroe Doctrine, which asserted U.S. dominance over the region.

Gone is the "pink tide," a wave of "soft" communism that emerged in Latin America in the late 1990s and extended into the 2000s before reemerging in the early 2020s.

The era gave rise to prominent left-wing leaders such as Maduro's predecessor, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, and Bolivia's Evo Morales, whose takeover of oil and gas production tanked his country's economy.

Experts believe a combination of Trump's influence, along with economic and security concerns - two areas of strength for conservative candidates - has triggered a reversal of fortunes for leftist governments in the region.

Trump endorsed a number of right-wing candidates in Latin America. In December 2025, he endorsed Chile's José Antonio Kast, who won a landslide election against the communist candidate Jeannette Jara in December 2025. That same month, Nasry Asfura, a Trump-backed conservative, snatched victory away from Honduras's socialist government.

The president also supported Colombia's Abelardo de la Espriella, who this year edged out Iván Cepeda, a left-wing opponent aligned with outgoing leader Gustavo Petro, a former Marxist guerrilla.

In four of the five countries, conservatives also made gains in their respective legislatures. Only Colombia saw the left actually gain legislative seats, but neither side holds a majority in its two chambers.

In Bolivia, no party won an outright majority, but the conservative government became the largest force in both chambers of its legislature, while conservative factions together make up a supermajority in both chambers of Bolivia's government. The former leftist government retained only two seats.

Honduras's single legislative chamber gained conservative seats on the coattails of Asfura's victory. In Chile's legislature, a conservative coalition controls the lower chamber, while the upper chamber is evenly split. Likewise, Peru's conservative bloc holds a plurality but not a majority in the lower chamber, while the upper chamber is evenly divided.

Crime and Economics

Latin America's conservative trend was sparked by disappointment with leftist governments, which led to increased organized crime and inflation, according to Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a Germany-based international political analysis group.

Of 16 democracies with populations greater than 1 million people, 10 have changed political direction since 2022, mostly from left to right, according to the report and recent updates.

Of those examined, only Brazil, Guatemala, Mexico, and Uruguay currently have left-wing governments.

Venezuela, which wasn't counted as a democracy, remains in political limbo after Maduro's removal, leaving his Vice President Delcy Rodríguez in charge. Cuba remains under communist control that took root in the 1950s. Another country not included in the survey was Nicaragua, ruled by former left-wing guerrilla leader Daniel Ortega, who has been consolidating power since 2007. He recently announced the nation would cease to hold elections.

Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez attends a ceremony for the signing of an agreement between Chevron Venezuela and the national government at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas, Venezuela, on April 13, 2026. Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images

Guyana, which has about 1 million residents, holds democratic elections but remains firmly in the grasp of socialists.

Just as Maduro's demise signaled the end of the old communist guard, figures such as Argentina's golden chainsaw-wielding leader Javier Milei symbolize the rise of conservative populist leaders.

"Figures such as Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador embody the new political mood with their populist strategies, while moderate conservatives such as Luis Abinader in the Dominican Republic prioritize stability and pragmatism," according to the report.

U.S. policy has reinforced the region's conservative vibe, the report said, leading to positive relationships with right-wing leaders.

"This is hardly surprising given that Washington recently announced its intent to actively support like-minded political forces in the Western Hemisphere, to expand trade relations, and to stabilize Latin American countries in line with its own interests," the report states.

Argentinian presidential candidate Javier Milei lifts a chainsaw during a rally in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Sept. 25, 2023. 'Trump Effect'

Joshua Trevino, senior director for the Western Hemisphere Initiative at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, said having a conservative in the White House has driven change in Latin America.

Trump's influence and policies have contributed to Latin America turning away from socialism and communism, he said.

"So what we see is a Trump administration effect to a lot of it," he told The Epoch Times. "We can have a lot more open optimism in Latin America than we previously did."

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 19:50

IRS Announces 7 Percent Interest Rate For Overpayments And Underpayments

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Internal Revenue Service has announced interest rates for tax underpayments and overpayments for the fourth quarter of 2026, keeping them at 7 percent for individual taxpayers.

The Internal Revenue Service in Washington on Jan. 6, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

When taxpayers do not pay taxes, penalties, and other charges on time, the IRS charges interest on the underpayment. Conversely, when taxpayers pay more tax than they actually owe, the agency pays interest on the overpayment. Those rates are determined quarterly. The 7 percent rate for overpayments and underpayments takes effect Oct. 1, according to the IRS.

For corporations, the overpayment rate is 6 percent, while the rate on the portion of a corporate overpayment exceeding $10,000 is 4.5 percent. The underpayment rate is 7 percent, the same as for individual taxpayers, while large corporate underpayments carry a 9 percent rate. All of the rates are unchanged from the third quarter.

According to an April 26 IRS update cited by The Epoch Times, interest on underpayments begins accruing on the due date of the amount owed and continues until the balance is paid in full.

Interest on overpayments is calculated based on factors including the tax filing due date, payment dates, and when the IRS receives a return in a format it can process.

Taxpayers can file claims if they believe the amount of overpayment interest they received was insufficient.

The rates were announced based on the federal short-term rate for July, which was determined to be 4 percent.

For taxpayers other than corporations, the overpayment and underpayment rates are calculated by adding 3 percentage points to the federal short-term rate.

For corporations, the underpayment rate is the federal short-term rate plus 3 percentage points. The corporate overpayment rate adds 2 percentage points, except for the portion of an overpayment exceeding $10,000, for which only 0.5 percentage point is added.

Penalty Relief

The IRS has also introduced a new automatic penalty relief process for taxpayers, known as the Automatic Exemption from Penalty, or AEP.

The program is available to eligible taxpayers who filed and paid their taxes on time during the previous three years, or during 12 consecutive quarters for quarterly filers. Those who qualify automatically receive relief from common penalties including failure to file, failure to pay, and failure to deposit.

When the IRS applies AEP to an eligible tax return, the taxpayer receives a notice confirming that the relief was granted.

Taxpayers who do not qualify for AEP can still seek penalty relief on the basis of reasonable cause, which the agency considers case by case.

In a July 8 statement, the IRS said it would begin phasing out the long-standing First Time Abate, or FTA, relief system in favor of AEP during the summer. Under FTA, taxpayers had to contact the agency before the IRS reviewed their account to determine whether they qualified. AEP makes that process automatic for eligible taxpayers.

During the transition, some taxpayers who qualify for AEP may still receive penalty notices involving 2025 or 2026 returns. In those cases, the IRS says taxpayers can contact the agency and request FTA relief.

IRS CEO Frank J. Bisignano said the automatic exemption reflects the agency's effort to make payment of taxes owed simpler and more consistent.

He added that taxpayers with a history of paying on time should not have to formally request relief that would routinely be granted.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 18:40

"They Can't Define A Woman": Bill Maher Says Democrats "Opened The Door" With "Crazy" Cultural Issues

Bill Maher says Democrats are still paying a political price for cultural positions that leave voters thinking the party has "lost their minds."

The 'Real Time' host argued that Republicans have benefited from Democrats continuing to focus on cultural issues where, in his telling, much of the country believes the party has gone off the rails.

Bill Maher MOCKS Democrats for the "crazy stuff" that is STILL costing them elections: "They can't define a woman," and "they think the WNBA should be full of men."

He says the country thinks they "lost their minds."

MAHER: "The Democrats made it a lot easier for [Republicans] by harping on cultural issues where the country thought they had lost their minds. I feel like the elections we're having these days are still that."

"The Democrats are saying, 'These guys are crooks, and inflation is still high. We can do better, and we can give you healthcare.' And the other people are saying, 'Yeah, but they want to get rid of Thanksgiving. We like Thanksgiving.'"

"And then they can't define a woman, and they think the WNBA should be full of men, and just crazy stuff. And so they kind of opened the door for that."

A New York Times/Ipsos poll found 79% of Americans say trans athletes should not compete in women's sports. That includes 94% of Republicans and even 67% of Democrats.

The party is losing this issue with its own base and still won't drop it.

— The Vigilant Fox ? (@VigilantFox) August 22, 2026

"The Democrats made it a lot easier for [Republicans] by harping on cultural issues where the country thought they had lost their minds," Maher said.

He contrasted Democratic messaging about corruption, inflation and healthcare with the sort of cultural arguments that can cut through everything else, joking that voters instead hear that Democrats "want to get rid of Thanksgiving."

Then Maher got to the issue he clearly believes remains politically toxic: "They can't define a woman, and they think the WNBA should be full of men, and just crazy stuff."

"And so they kind of opened the door for that," he added.

Polling cited by Vigilant Fox underscores the problem... A New York Times/Ipsos survey found that 79% of Americans said transgender female athletes should not be allowed to compete in women's sports.

The opposition crossed party lines, including 94% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 18:05

Fauci's Lawyers Set Up Legal Defense Fund

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Dr. Anthony Fauci’s lawyers have created a fund for people to donate for his legal expenses.

The fund “has been established to help pay the costs of the ongoing legal representation of Dr. Fauci,” according to its website.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, testifies before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs in Washington on July 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

All contributions are final and non-refundable, the lawyers said.

Fauci, 85, was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 until late 2022.

“Dr. Fauci is facing an unprecedented legal barrage for a retired civil servant, and he deserves a robust defense against these unfounded and frivolous actions,” David Schertler, a lawyer representing Fauci, told Reuters. “Dr. Fauci has not done anything wrong, and we are prepared to fight back against this shameful harassment of an honorable man who dedicated his career to saving lives.”

Fauci will not receive any payment or other form of distribution from the legal defense fund, his lawyers said. It is set up as a trust with an independent corporate trustee, according to Fauci’s legal team.

Neither Fauci nor his lawyers have control over how the money will be distributed or how the fund will be managed, his lawyers said. Invoices submitted by Fauci’s attorneys will be reviewed by an independent expert adviser, they said. Once all of Fauci’s litigation concludes, any remaining funds will be distributed to charity, his lawyers said.

In his last year of service, Fauci made $480,654, according to financial data obtained by Open the Books. The net worth of Fauci and his wife, who was the chief bioethicist at the National Institutes of Health until 2024, reached $15 million in 2023, according to a financial disclosure released by the transparency organization.

Fauci’s role as head of an agency that sent money to a laboratory in Wuhan, China, near where the first COVID-19 cases were detected, and his statements about the research the agency funded as well as the origins of COVID-19, have come under increasing scrutiny in the wake of senators obtaining hundreds of pages of his diary and emails he and others sent during the pandemic.

The diary showed Fauci was informed by many virology experts that COVID-19 bore a feature that may signal manipulation by scientists. Just months later, Fauci promoted a paper with which he had secretly assisted that said it was implausible COVID-19 came from a lab.

After Fauci in July refused to answer questions from senators about the diary and other documents, a Senate committee voted to hold him in contempt and sent a criminal referral to federal prosecutors. The Department of Justice has not commented on the referral, and Fauci has not been charged as of yet.

Fauci has a pardon covering conduct from Jan. 1, 2014, through Jan. 19, 2025. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), among others, has said that he should be prosecuted because he has allegedly made false statements after the 2025 date, in addition to the contempt he showed Congress.

Paul wrote on X: “For years we were told Fauci was the infallible expert who never made a mistake and never lied. Now his lawyers are admitting the legal exposure is so large they need a special fund to handle it. You can’t fundraise the truth away.”

Fauci also faces multiple probes by state officials, including Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, who issued a subpoena to Fauci and said he would investigate whether the infectious disease expert “personally profited off the COVID ‘guidance’ he issued.”

The legal fund was established after Dr. David Morens, a senior adviser to Fauci for 16 years, admitted to defrauding the government by destroying records subject to the Freedom of Information Act.

Morens faces up to five years in prison.

Fauci testified in a public hearing in 2024 that he was not aware of a conspiracy to evade Freedom of Information Act requests, after emails from Morens that were released by journalists and lawmakers detailed such a scheme.

“I can send stuff to Tony on his private gmail, or hand it to him at work or at his house,” Morens wrote in one email. “He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble.”

In several missives released by Paul in 2025, Fauci instructed aides to delete emails after they read them.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 17:30

Treasury Bars Scammy ESG Funds From Trump Accounts, Citing Left-Wing 'Political Activism' Concerns

The Treasury Department is moving forward with rules that would exclude investment funds built around scammy, globalist environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria from Trump Accounts.

Fox Business reports that under the newly proposed framework, qualifying indexes would need to track broad segments of US or global equity markets using objective financial criteria, rather than criteria crafted by social justice warriors who seek to make the West energy-poor.

"Corporate America has rejected ESG ideology, and we will not allow it to be a part of Trump Accounts," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the outlet in a statement.

Treasury Department bars ESG funds from Trump Accounts, citing 'political activism' concerns: https://t.co/pRvofRHZB3

( TS: Aug 21 2026, 1:21 PM ET )​‍‌​​​‌‍‍​‍​‌‌​​‍‍​‍‍‍​​​‌​‌​‍‌​​‍‌​‍ pic.twitter.com/FmVLgAhwbR

— Commentary Donald J. Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) August 21, 2026

ESG scores have been hijacked and "weaponized" by social justice warriors over the years. For instance, large tobacco companies have received higher ESG scores than Elon Musk's Tesla.

The ESG Ruse Continues: Legacy Tobacco Companies Are Posting Higher ESG Scores Than EV Maker Tesla https://t.co/jlOisi3UNJ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 15, 2023

"Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn't make the list!" Elon Musk wrote on X several years ago.

Musk is right...

• Companies With Good ESG Scores Pollute Just As Much As Those With Low Ones, New Analysis Finds

Meanwhile, earlier this year, the ESG ruse continued with MSCI's decision to assign SpaceX the "lowest possible ESG rating," while Big Oil and defense companies scored high on the list.

ESG investing has drawn criticism from Republicans who say these funds incorporate ESG standards that may subordinate investor returns to political priorities.

Trump Accounts launched on July 4 and have attracted more than 7 million registrations, the outlet said, citing a Treasury spokeswoman. More than 2 million enrolled children are eligible for a $1,000 federal contribution.

James Lindsay, the author of "Race Marxism" and other books challenging woke narratives, has noted that ESG is merely a weapon in the hands of "social justice warriors" seeking to shake down corporations and a tool for those attempting to impose a "one-world government."

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 16:55

Waste Of The Day: Millionaire Mortgages

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

The Department of Agriculture's Section 502 loan programs help low-income families buy homes with mortgages that don't require a down payment. But in 2013, an investigation by Reuters found dozens of millionaires took advantage to purchase vacation and rental homes.

Though the millionaires later repaid their loans, the program as a whole covered $500 million in losses from defaults in 2013, or $715 million in today's money.

That's according to the "Wastebook" reporting published by the late U.S. Senator Dr. Tom Coburn. For years, these reports shined a white-hot spotlight on federal frauds and taxpayer abuses.

Coburn, the legendary U.S. Senator from Oklahoma, earned the nickname "Dr. No" by stopping thousands of pork-barrel projects using the Senate rules. Projects that he couldn't stop, Coburn included in his oversight reports.

Coburn's Wastebook 2013 included 100 examples of outrageous spending worth nearly $30 billion, including the loans for millionaires.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world's largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.

Key facts: Reuters analyzed mortgage records from 2003 to 2011 and found more than 180 USDA-backed loans went to borrowers who reported annual incomes above $500,000. That was an apparent violation of the program rules. Loans were only meant for buyers whose income was not above the median income of their community.

The records showed at least 500 USDA-backed mortgages worth $500,000 or more, including more than 90 exceeding $1 million. Loans appeared in resort communities including Hyannis Port, Massachusetts, California wine country, and the "thriving seaside enclave" of Ewa Beach, Hawaii.

One retired advertising executive told Reuters he used a USDA loan to buy a house in North Carolina. "I could have bought a house another way," he said, "but this allowed us to travel, and our hope in a few years is to purchase a beach property in Surf City that we can rent out now and retire in later."

The program's definition of "rural" was also generous. Reuters found at least 51,600 mortgages worth $6 billion in cities designated as urban by the U.S. Census, including places near Los Angeles, Washington, Seattle and Austin. Another 300,000 loans worth $38 billion were located in areas that "straddled" urban and rural boundaries.

USDA said the overwhelming majority of borrowers were the low- and moderate-income families the program was intended to help. The average applicant earned about $48,000 and borrowed $131,000.

Summary: There is a place for government programs that help families who cannot otherwise afford a home, but people earning $1 million per year probably should not need help affording the down payment.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 16:20

Portable 1MW Kaleidos Microreactor Secures Critical Nuclear Fuel Deal Through 2030s

Authored by Aamir Khollam via Interesting Engineering,

Radiant has secured a long-term source of nuclear fuel for its Kaleidos microreactor, removing a potential supply hurdle as the company prepares the system for deployment.

Kaleidos transportable nuclear reactor delivery.Radiant Nuclear

Standard Nuclear will fabricate TRISO fuel for Radiant under an agreement covering planned Kaleidos deployments through the early 2030s. The deal gives the reactor developer a dedicated fuel supplier as its program moves toward full-scale testing and production.

Fuel availability remains a critical challenge for advanced nuclear developers. A reactor cannot reach customers without a reliable source of qualified fuel. Radiant is betting that greater control over its supply chain will help avoid that problem.

Fuel supply secured

Standard Nuclear will produce fuel specifically for the Kaleidos reactor. TRISO fuel consists of uranium particles protected by several layers of ceramic and carbon materials. Advanced reactor developers have adopted the technology for its ability to contain radioactive materials within each fuel particle.

Kaleidos is a 1-megawatt microreactor designed for transport to customer sites. Each unit can operate for up to five years before refueling.

Tori Shivanandan, Radiant's president and COO, said securing fuel represents an important step toward larger-scale deployment. "Securing the fuel supply chain is a strategic advantage to deploying at scale," she said.

Radiant also plans to control the reactor's broader fuel cycle. Customers would not handle fresh or spent fuel at their locations. The company instead plans to manage fueling, refueling, and storage through its own facilities.

Reactor testing advances

Kaleidos is now undergoing full-scale testing at Idaho National Laboratory's DOME facility. The Department of Energy selected Radiant through a competitive process and granted it exclusive access to the facility for one year.

Engineers will test the reactor at full scale and full power during extended runs. The campaign will use the same reactor design and fuel specifications intended for customer deployments.

Full-scale testing could reveal engineering challenges that smaller demonstrations cannot easily expose. Radiant says crews can transport Kaleidos by land, sea, or air. The reactor has a planned operating life of 20 years.

A 300,000-square-foot facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, will support the company's manufacturing and fuel operations. The site will handle reactor production, fueling, and fuel storage as Radiant prepares for larger deployments.

Customers already waiting

Equinix has signed a commercial agreement for 20 Kaleidos units. The deal gives Radiant an early commercial pathway for its microreactor.

The company has also secured a project with the Department of the Air Force and the Defense Innovation Unit. Radiant will develop and operate a microreactor at Buckley Space Force Base under that effort. Those projects give Kaleidos potential applications across commercial infrastructure and U.S. defense facilities.

Radiant still needs to complete testing, establish repeatable manufacturing, and navigate regulatory requirements before widespread deployment can begin. The Standard Nuclear agreement resolves an important piece of that puzzle.

Radiant now has a committed fuel fabrication partner as it works to move Kaleidos from testing into production and eventual operation.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 15:10

What Florida Students Have Been Mandated To Learn Will Make Leftists Lose It

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Florida is doing what no blue-state classroom dares: forcing students to confront the actual body count of communism instead of romanticizing it.

Starting this fall, every public school student from sixth grade onward will receive mandatory instruction on the history and evils of communism under standards signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The curriculum covers the Soviet Union, the Chinese Communist Revolution, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro.

? BREAKING: Florida students are being REQUIRED this Fall to learn about the evils of Communism under a law signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis

BASED ????

"Starting in 6th grade, they will touch [on] the dangers of the Soviet Union, the Chinese Communist Revolution, North Korea, Cuba... pic.twitter.com/LcqfyOhrzU

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 21, 2026

It details the mass deaths under Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and Castro, the failure of collectivism, and the superiority of free enterprise and private property.

?? COMMUNISM — This fall, Florida will make it MANDATORY for every middle and high school student to take a yearly class on the history and evils of communism.

The curriculum, developed, covers the mass deaths under Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and Castro, the failure of... pic.twitter.com/YlgSzPxk5K

— The Patriot Oasis™ (@ThePatriotOasis) August 21, 2026

Education leaders have been blunt: too many young Americans romanticize socialism because they were never taught its real-world toll.

The requirement builds on Florida's existing Victims of Communism Day, which already mandated at least 45 minutes of annual instruction on those same regimes.

The fuller standards, approved by the State Board of Education in November 2025 and updated this year to include Maduro's autocratic rule and subsequent fall, take effect for the 2026-2027 school year.

DeSantis has been consistent. "The truth will set us free," he said when signing the underlying bill, adding "We will not allow our students to live in ignorance, nor be indoctrinated by Communist apologists in schools."

"To the contrary, we will ensure students in Florida are taught the truth about the evils and dangers of Communism," DeSantis further urged.

In a more recent post he added, "The DSA may try to make Castro out to be a HERO - but FLORIDA students know better!"

Former Education Commissioner Anastasios Kamoutsas put it this way when the standards were adopted: "With the resurgence of communist ideologies across the United States and throughout the world, it is more important than ever for students to understand the catastrophic failures and human suffering caused by communist regimes."

The standards themselves ensure students learn "the truth about how communist regimes suppress freedoms, abuse power, and inflict widespread suffering."

Instruction begins in middle school and continues through high school. Students will examine domestic communist movements and their tactics in the United States, the economic and political conditions that preceded communist takeovers, the spread of Cuban-style communism through Latin America, and direct comparisons between communism, totalitarianism, and the founding principles of American freedom and democracy.

The capture of Maduro has been folded in so the lessons stay current.

Florida's large exile communities from Cuba and Venezuela already know the difference between slogans and reality. The state is simply making sure every student gets the same clarity before they reach campuses where those slogans still circulate.

While Florida insists on historical accuracy, other jurisdictions continue to push mandatory ideological content in the opposite direction.

In Texas, public school students from Humble ISD's Kingwood and Atascocita high schools were recently bused to an Islamic center so they could "experience Islam."

The trip included observation of midday prayer, a presentation by a CAIR representative, and promotional claims that students left "changed." No equivalent taxpayer-funded field trips to churches or synagogues appear to have been organized.

At UCLA medical school, first-year students have been required to take a course on structural racism and health equity that includes mandatory reading promoting "fat positivity."

One assigned essay argues that the term "obesity" is a slur used to exact violence on fat people and frames weight loss as essentially hopeless. Former Harvard Medical School dean Jeffrey Flier called the material "extensive and dangerous misinformation" and "pedagogical malpractice."

At the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, a required first-year education course for future teachers leaked PowerPoint materials that prioritize leftist framing of immigration, race, and gender over basic classroom skills.

Slides instruct students to reject the term "illegal immigrants," emphasize "humanizing language," and treat resistance to ICE as a professional duty. A whistleblower noted the near-total absence of practical instruction on how to teach math or reading.

In Washington state's Olympia School District, officials refused parental requests to opt students out of Pride-themed lessons, declaring that such opt-outs would be "offensive and demeaning."

Non-participation was treated as an unexcused absence. The lessons form part of a broader gender-inclusive curriculum tied to state standards.

California has gone further. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation requiring student ID cards in middle schools, high schools, and colleges to carry the Trevor Project's LGBTQ crisis hotline.

The organization has faced criticism for its approach to gender issues and parental notification. Newsom framed the mandate as a direct response to federal policy changes under the Trump administration.

In Maryland's Montgomery County, LGBTQ-inclusive books were made mandatory reading in the English language arts curriculum with no parental opt-out and no advance notice required for most of the materials. Parents and even local Muslim organizations objected that the policy violated parental rights.

And in Kansas, sixth-graders at Marshall Elementary School in Eureka were told they could not name Charlie Kirk, President Trump, or Jesus Christ as role models in a "Find Your Voice" assignment.

The guidance counselor reportedly became angry when those names were suggested and excluded political and religious figures entirely. The American Center for Law & Justice has filed a civil rights complaint.

These examples reflect a pattern in which certain ideological frameworks are treated as non-negotiable while the documented human costs of 20th-century communism are often soft-pedaled or ignored.

Florida has chosen the opposite path: require the history, include the body count, and let students judge the results for themselves.

The new standards do not claim communism is the only source of historical evil. They simply refuse to leave students unequipped when they encounter professors or activists who still treat failed experiments as moral inspiration.

In a state that absorbed hundreds of thousands of people who fled those experiments, the choice is neither surprising nor complicated.

Florida students will now learn, as a matter of required curriculum, what the rest of the country too often prefers to forget.

The DSA can keep trying to rehabilitate Castro. The classrooms in the Sunshine State will keep teaching the opposite.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 14:00

Tehran Says US Sanctions Are 'Declaration Of War' On All Nations, Urges Global Revolt

Tehran has on Saturday further addressed the new Trump-Bessent plan of long-term economic 'strangulation' and isolation, which in the US Treasury Secretary's words seeks to "collapse" the Iranian government with the "toughest sanctions in history." This of course means that Washington will have to at the same time pressure other nations that do business with Tehran to immediately cease, which could prove a tall order - given already China and Russia are clearly not going to comply.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said the new sanctions initiative amounts to a "declaration of war" on all countries and goes beyond "an illegal economic war against a single nation."

Via EPA

Baghaei said: “The announcement of new sanctions represents an attempt by the United States to exert extraterritorial sovereignty over all independent UN member states.”

"No government has the right to force foreign banks, enterprises, or airports, each operating under the exclusive jurisdiction of their own sovereignty, to refrain from engaging in legitimate trade with a third country," he continued, according to Fars news agency.

The ministery added that "such secondary sanctions have no basis in international law" and "violated the fundamental principle of sovereign equality enshrined in Article 2, Paragraph 1 of the UN Charter."

Baghaei previewed and warned that a surrender to "such intimidation would lead to the total erosion of national sovereignty" and serve as "a catastrophic return to blatant, full-scale colonialism."

This is clearly an attempt to put other countries on notice, urging them not to play Washington's game. The appeal might gain a sympathetic ear especially in BRICS and Global South countries.

The statement was issued on the heels of Iran's military days ago giving a more direct warning and threat to America's regional Gulf allies. On Wednesday Ali Abdollahi, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, announced that "any assistance or facilitation provided to the aggressor US military amounts to participation in the US military operation."

"It seems unlikely that such a large number of military aircraft, particularly refuelling aircraft, could be present at regional bases without knowledge of host countries," said Abdollahi. 

All of this is a mirror response to Bessent's Bush-style "you're either with us or against us" rhetoric.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, has issued some fresh words of his own. He claimed Tehran has received "numerous messages" related to new security and economic arrangements in the region as a result of US-Israeli aggression.

"The United States put the security of every single one of its allies at such risk through bullying and pure disregard for their interests for the sake of Israel that they briefly saw their entire existence on the line,” Ghalibaf stated on X.

"A homegrown, independent order is what will actually deliver peace and security," he added. Iran has for months said that various countries are seeking to strike their own separate arrangements for vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, something which if true gives the Islamic Republic further leverage. But the White House has been seeking to counter this narrative by feeding reports to Axios...

There are essentially two ways to interpret the administration’s claims about the volume of oil now moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

The first is that Washington is significantly overstating the numbers in an effort to calm energy markets, push oil prices down, and… https://t.co/RJKJyER3nt

— Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش (@citrinowicz) August 22, 2026

At the moment, Axios is claiming that millions of barrels of oil are still transiting via a 'stealth' corridor ensured by the US Navy, but there are many expressing skepticism over this. The past days have actually seen no new attacks on foreign vessels in the strait, as the plot thickens over competing narratives (given the Iranians have dismissed the Axios reporting as fabrications).

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 13:25

Beyond The Ban: Why Embracing AI Is Essential For Higher Education

Authored by Kent Ingle via RealClearEducation,

Rather than fearing generative tools or treating them as mere compliance threats, higher education must train students to master AI as an exponential multiplier for innovation, career success, and national prosperity. Generative artificial intelligence is vastly more prevalent, sophisticated, and accessible today than it was even six months ago.

Today's incoming students arrive on campus with the collective knowledge of human history sitting directly in their pockets.

They are navigating a digital landscape that is fundamentally rewriting how information is processed, analyzed, and created. Predictably, administrators across the country are responding with panic. Elite institutions are rushing to expand their rulebooks, update honor codes, and purchase unreliable detection software in a futile attempt to police the classroom.

This reactionary mindset misses the entire point. When higher education views artificial intelligence primarily as a cheating hazard, it defaults to censorship and control. But when we approach technology through the lens of human potential and future readiness, our entire perspective transforms. We should be asking how to train our students to master it responsibly from the ground up.

Attempting to ban these platforms is like trying to ban the calculator in a modern engineering department. Whether we choose to embrace it or not, generative software is now a permanent fixture of the global economy. In fact, it is currently the number one most marketable skill for people looking for new jobs out of college. Recent labor market data reveals that demand for artificial intelligence competency in entry-level roles has nearly tripled in less than a year, extending far beyond traditional technology companies into marketing, operations, human resources, and finance. To compete in a rapidly evolving market, the next generation cannot simply be passive consumers of technology. They must be fluent directors of it.

When leveraged properly, artificial intelligence becomes an exponential work and impact multiplier. It streamlines complex research, accelerates problem-solving, and synthesizes massive datasets in seconds. A properly equipped student learns to direct artificial intelligence as a powerful research assistant while maintaining total ownership over the final outcome. We must teach our young adults the difference between outsourcing their intellect and augmenting their capabilities.

Using artificial intelligence to skip the hard work of learning is a misuse of human potential. But using these platforms to elevate our thinking, automate routine labor, and tackle grand challenges is the exact formula for lifelong success and prosperity. This is not just about individual career placement. It is about national survival. Artificial intelligence is currently the fastest-growing economic sector in our country. It is catalyzing a trillion-dollar infrastructure buildout that is reaching all fifty states, revitalizing communities, and creating unprecedented opportunities across every sector. If American industry is going to maintain its leadership on the global stage, our workforce requires graduates who understand how to harness these tools to innovate at breakneck speeds. If we are going to continue to lead on the global industrial stage, we need more students ready to embrace AI, not less.

Censoring students from trying to cheat does not protect academic integrity. It simply leaves our graduates woefully unprepared for the economic realities of tomorrow. Relying on software for baseline tasks means that the value of genuine critical thinking and strategic foresight is actually higher than ever. Employers are actively seeking out graduates who possess the discernment to evaluate machine-generated outputs, spot inaccuracies, and apply human judgment to elevate mediocre drafts into exceptional final products.

Our duty as educational leaders is to prepare students for a life of success, prosperity, and leadership in a highly competitive world. We completely fail in that core mission if we allow administrative fear to prevent us from teaching digital mastery. Instead of building higher digital walls, universities must build stronger practical foundations. We must teach students that true excellence lies in combining technological fluency with unshakeable personal integrity. We must show them exactly how to prompt, evaluate, refine, and deploy these tools ethically so that they enter their careers equipped to perform.

Artificial intelligence is driving the fastest economic transformation of our lifetime, and it is the key to America's future competitive edge. The universities that thrive in this new era will not be the ones that tried to ban the future. They will be the ones that trained their students to lead it. As a new academic year begins, we owe it to the next generation to step forward with vision and confidence, equipping them to master this technology and secure the ongoing prosperity of American industry.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 12:50

"Stop Gaslighting Me!": Florida Socialist Who Beat Vindman Gets In Shouting Match With Democrat Party Chair

As regular readers know, establishment Democrats have been freaking out over the rise of socialist candidates - whose policy positions are virtually identical, except the socialists are getting elected saying the quiet part out loud - giving the game away. 

On Tuesday, Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon beat Russiagate hero Alexander Vindman in a shocking double-digit primary win in Florida - setting the stage for Nixon to square off with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November. The battle to unseat Moody was always going to be uphill - and now the state's Democratic party is freaking out.

According to Axios, Nixon and the state party's chair - Nikki Fried, got into a heated shouting match over the phone - with Fried reportedly warning Nixon that her DSA ties give the GOP an easy angle to attack going into midterms. 

"Nikki wants her to back away from DSA, from socialism," one person who spoke with Nixon told the outlet. "She's listening to other people saying that they're afraid, they're scared - the Jewish members and the Hispanic caucus. But to Angie, Nikki doesn't want Angie to be who Angie is. Angie has already done the backing-away."

On the call, Nixon told Fried, "You never gave a care about me from the beginning, and now you're telling me how to run my campaign?" according to the source. -Axios

An official with the Florida Democratic Party disputed that Fried yelled at Nixon - insisting that the state party tried to contact Nixon's team multiple times about a coordinated campaign - but that their calls weren't returned. That said, Nixon's field team did participate in a call with the party's coordinated campaign last week. 

"The DSA label could create an opening for misinformation and allow Angie's opponents to define her in ways that don't reflect her actual record or positions, rather than letting voters hear directly from Angie about what she believes and what she's running on," said the source. 

A second source told Axios that not only was the feud a clash of ideology - but "also a clash of personalities." 

"Nikki needs to be careful," said the source. "She can't afford to be seen by black voters disrespecting a black woman."

Another Florida Democratic official told the outlet that Nixon an Fried have always hated each other, and that Fried "was very disappointed that Angie won. She made that pretty well known."

More via Axios:

• Before the election, the source said, Fried was predicting Nixon would lose and was "calling around telling people, 'Hey, can you make sure when he wins that Angie is nice and welcoming and does all the things to bring everybody together?'"
• "I know Nikki doesn't like it, but Angie is the engine right now. Angie is the national story, and Nikki just can't stand it."
• One of the Florida Democratic Party sources said that the organization did not favor Vindman over Nixon and was neutral in the primary.

Fried's freakout is just the latest example of establishment dems pushing back against the DSA. That said, Nixon was a recent 'convert' to the party, and according to the report - she was trying to distance herself from various DSA positions. She says she doesn't back abolishing prisons, just for-profit ones, she doesn't support open borders, and she doesn't want to defund the police (or so she says). 

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 12:15

Court Reduces $50 Million Judgment Against Alex Jones Over False Sandy Hook Hoax Claim

Authored via Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A Texas appeals court on Aug. 21 drastically reduced a judgment owed by Infowars host Alex Jones, shrinking the amount from $50 million to around $6 million, over his commentary falsely calling the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting in Connecticut a hoax.

Jones and his company, Free Speech Systems LLC, appealed the multimillion-dollar settlement after a jury in 2022 found him liable for “defamation and intentional infliction of emotional distress” after the shooting in which 20 children and 6 faculty were killed.

The Texas Court of Appeals for the Third District denied many points of Jones’ appeal, and did not reverse a previous $4.2 million judgment for one of the plaintiffs.

But it did side with his argument that Neil Heslin and Scarlett Lewis, whose 6-year-old son, Jesse, died in the attack, should not have been allowed to alter their lawsuit after the jury verdict in order to seek more damages.

The parents had amended their suit to say the hoax claims caused them to be “disabled” by “severe emotional disturbance.” That meant Jones would be liable for “injury to a disabled person,” and the normal $750,000 cap would not apply.

“Concluding that the trial court erred by allowing the parents to amend their pleadings after the trial, we will modify the judgment by limiting their exemplary damages awards to a total of $750,000” per parent, Chief Justice Darlene Byrne wrote in the three-judge panel’s unanimous decision.

The panel said a trial court “abuses its discretion” when it allows plaintiffs to amend their claims after a jury verdict, because then the defendant “could not anticipate or defend against the pleading.”

Jones called the decision a “massive victory for the First Amendment” in an Aug. 21 post on X. His legal team intended to take the case to the Texas Supreme Court to reclaim the rest of the judgment, the post also said.

The parents were part of a group that brought multiple suits against Jones based on statements he made after the event.

The court summarized the parents’ accusation against Jones: They alleged he said that “Sandy Hook parents were participating in a sinister manipulation plan to fool the public or that a shadowy cabal of elites pre-planned the murder of their children and controlled the coverage of the event through the media manipulation.”

Parents testified that they were harassed and received death and rape threats as a result of his statements.

Mark Bankston, who represented Lewis and Heslin in Texas, said that the ruling doesn’t make a big difference in the case.

“The families care not at all about this irrelevant ruling which affects only two of the 19 claims they all share. Jones still faces over a billion dollars of liability, so this changes absolutely nothing. All it does is highlight the absurdity of Texas law,” Bankston said in a statement.

Last October, the U.S. Supreme Court also rejected an appeal by Jones to overturn a separate $1.4 billion judgment against him. He filed for bankruptcy in 2022, and satire news outlet The Onion has purchased Infowars.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 11:40

Canada-US Trade War Erupts, Setting New 50% Tariffs On Canadian Goods

US-Canada trade negotiations collapsed at the 11th hour, just before the midnight deadline, triggering 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods (under a never-before- used Section 338 provision of the Tariff Act of 1930) and prompting globalist-aligned, China-sympathizing Prime Minister Mark Carney to promise an equivalent response.

"Tonight, Canada declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week," the United States Trade Representative wrote on X early Saturday morning.

The USTR continued:

Despite the U.S. offer to Canada to receive the best treatment of any major exporter to our market, new demands and walk-backs of other commitments by Canada have upended the careful balance reached in the past days. In addition, Canada is continuing to maintain its prolonged retaliation against the United States, including, among other things, flat-out prohibitions on certain American goods and services.

For decades, Canada has enjoyed the most favorable access to the U.S. market of any country. And from the beginning of President Trump's trade program, Canada has continued to enjoy the best treatment in the world, even after, like China, retaliating against the United States. This week, the United States agreed to provide even better treatment to Canada, offering significant tariff reductions on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber.

The U.S. offer was also forward-looking and included a historic economic and national security partnership to cooperate on export controls, combat transshipment, enhance digital trade, and align certain external tariffs. The offer would have led to supply-chain coordination on aerospace, complementary actions to address unfair trade practices, critical-minerals cooperation, increased enforcement against imports produced with forced labor, and the announcement of formal U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiations.

This is a missed opportunity for Canada to partner with the United States, which is the fastest-growing economy in the G7.

Tonight, Canada declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week.

Despite the U.S. offer to Canada to receive the best treatment of any major exporter to our market, new demands and walk backs of other commitments by Canada have upended the careful…

— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) August 22, 2026

Canada responds:

The deal has collapsed. The tariffs commence in moments. The relationship has dissolved. A Trade War is Afoot.

I've been telling my followers for years the divide between the USA and Canada was too great to fix without massive concessions by Canada. Well, here you go. THE… https://t.co/yiNSLJENbG

— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) August 22, 2026

Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, as well as the former chairman of Brookfield Asset Management, which has an estimated $23 billion in China-linked assets (as of 2021), blamed Washington for the breakdown in trade negotiations. He pledged to match the new US tariffs "dollar for dollar" to protect Canadian workers and businesses.

But Carney's commitment to deeper North American economic integration warrants close scrutiny, given Brookfield's substantial commercial exposure to China.

Read:

• Brookfield's Deep Ties To Chinese Land, Loans & Green Deals

Carney's previous and questionable business links to Beijing were brought into focus earlier this year following a visit to China, when he noted how much the world had changed since the last visit by a Canadian prime minister a decade earlier and suggested that renewed progress and partnership with China positioned both countries for the emerging "new world order." Translation: Carney's allegiance might be with the West but, instead, to the East.

Canada's Mark Carney to China: Our 'Progress' and 'Partnership' Perfectly Position Us for the NEW WORLD ORDERpic.twitter.com/0BcPrsEmaJ

— TaraBull (@TaraBull) January 15, 2026

Carney's decision to suspend negotiations and pursue a tit-for-tat trade conflict with the Trump administration will inevitably fuel questions about Ottawa's move toward a prolonged tariff battle that would raise costs for American businesses and consumers at a politically sensitive moment, potentially creating another economic headwind for Trump ahead of the US midterm elections.

Carney suspended trade talks to influence the U.S. midterm elections. Carney takes his marching orders from the DNC. He's betting the entire farm on the Democrats taking control of Congress.

— Julian Assange (@ImJulianAssange) August 22, 2026

The proposed US-Canada trade deal would have reduced US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25%, lowered automotive duties to 15%, and eliminated a 10% levy on lumber. It also included cooperation on export controls and digital trade, as well as formal negotiations to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 11:05

Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A 5% long bond isn’t the crisis, it’s the receipt, and the fifteen years when money was free did far more damage to growth than normal interest rates ever will.

This past week, two charts crossed my desk, arguing the same thing from opposite ends. The Kobeissi Letter flagged that U.S. borrowing rates just hit their highest level since 2007. Then, my friend and colleague, Adam Taggart, framed the economy as a submarine, with bond yields as the surrounding water pressure, asking how close we are to the hull giving way. Both are hunting for the same “implosion point.” Both are anchored to an assumption I think is wrong, namely that a 5% long bond is a “crisis” rather than a price. Normal interest rates are not a crisis, and the level of the long bond is the least useful number in this entire debate.

The Submarine Metaphor Has A Flaw

Let’s start with Adam’s analogy, which is vivid and understandable, and why it had traction. Depth equals pressure; pressure equals stress; and somewhere down there, the hull of the ship fails. The symbolism is good; a submarine has a fixed “crush depth” set by the laws of physics. However, an economy doesn’t. What matters isn’t how deep yields go, but whether the borrower’s income is compounding faster than the interest clock is ticking. Moreover, we must know how much of the existing debt has actually repriced.

Here’s the problem with that argument in its popular form. It treats a 5% long bond as the oddity. Yet a 5% long bond is NOT the anomaly. What was odd was the fifteen years of zero-rate policy and four rounds of quantitative easing that taught a whole generation of investors that money was “free.” We’ve written about this before, and the data on rising interest rates has consistently refused to cooperate with the crash thesis.

So the first job is to define what “normal” actually means. If normal interest rates are the 5% kind, then the last decade and a half was the anomaly, and the current tape is a return to form. If free money is the baseline, everything looks like a crisis. One of those framings has 60 years of data behind it.

Rates aren’t the disease. They’re the thermometer.

Normal Interest Rates Are Not A Crisis

Let’s put the current level in context using the Federal Reserve’s own constant-maturity series, which runs daily back to 1962. I pulled all 16,129 observations rather than trusting anyone’s screenshot.

Notice what the gold bars do. After adjusting for expected inflation, today’s real long yield of roughly 2.8% sits within 30 basis points of the pre-crisis norm. That’s less than half the 1980s level and nowhere near a record. The 2009 to 2021 column, where the real long yield averaged 0.92%, is the outlier that needs explaining, not this one.

In other words, what were historically normal interest rates now look strange to us only because we spent fifteen years learning the wrong baseline. Of course, a 5% long bond feels violent after a decade of 2%, but that says much more about our reference point than about the bond market.

Secondly, I mentioned the Kobeissi framing, which is accurate on its face, and I’d only tighten one detail on their analysis. When looking at the Fed’s constant-maturity data series, the last comparable print to the August 17th high of 5.31% was June 12, 2007. Therefore, describing a return to the 2007 level as a bond market gone “crazy” quietly concedes that the ZIRP period was the “baseline,” when it wasn’t. That was the anomaly.

The Interest Burden Isn’t Unprecedented

Now, let’s explore where the debate usually pivots after ending the level debate. “Yes, but servicing costs are the highest level ever,” is usually the next progression in the debate.

However, this is where the “doom” case is the weakest. Ken Buck, writing in The Epoch Times, calls the national debt “a bona fide job-killer” and cites daily interest payments of nearly $2.8 billion. While the interest rate figure is correct, the conclusion drawn from it is not.

Read that chart again. Washington’s interest bill, measured against the size of the economy it is borrowing from, sits exactly where it stood in 1991, back when Alan Greenspan chaired the Fed and not one commentator was writing about “fiscal collapse.” That isn’t a record, and it isn’t off the chart. What came next was the 1990s. Such is the fact that never survives the trip into a “debt spiral” thread.

So is the debt “harmless”? Not even remotely, and I have never said that it was. The risk is real, and I have written numerous articles about the “negative multiplier” of debt on the economy. It’s just nothing like the risk on offer in the headlines, and you can only see it by dividing the interest bill by the debt stock. Normal interest rates aren’t the danger here; rather, the gap between what we pay and what the market charges is.

Let me say one thing about measuring the data, as it matters. The figures above use OMB’s net interest outlays, the budget line item, which is the only series that runs consistently back to 1940. Treasury’s gross interest expense on the public debt is larger, roughly $1.2 trillion or about 4% of GDP in fiscal 2025, because it includes interest credited to federal trust funds. This is an important distinction because it is an intragovernmental transfer rather than a cash cost to the public. Either measure works, but you can’t mix them in the same comparison, and the “Persistent Purveyors Of Doom” mix them constantly.

With all that said, we can sum it up in one sentence. We currently carry ten times the debt at half the interest rate. More importantly, the debt burden looks manageable today only because the average coupon on $40 trillion is still roughly 2.61%, a legacy of borrowing enormous sums during the zero-rate years. Every month, some of that cheap paper matures and gets refinanced at market, and the interest-rate bill rises even if the Fed cuts, and the 30-year yield never moves again.

Think about it this way. If we repriced the entire Treasury stock to July’s 5.21%, the interest rate burden would jump to roughly $2.03 trillion, or 6.4% of GDP. That would certainly be new territory. However, it also would not happen overnight, because the average maturity of the debt is measured in years.

A homeowner is a great example of this. Let’s assume a homeowner locked a 2.6% mortgage in 2021 and is now watching the reset schedule arrive one year at a time. When the rate reset day arrives, nothing breaks, but the payment slowly increases until it starts crowding out everything else in the budget. That’s all that is happening with the federal balance sheet, and it’s a slow grind through the maturity schedule rather than a sudden, irreversible, and devastating hull breach.

Where Debt Actually Bites

Don’t mistake me for being “Pollyannish.” There is a real mechanism that does damage, it is just not interest rates. It’s what each borrowed dollar buys. Using OMB debt data alongside BEA nominal GDP, I calculated how much federal debt was added per dollar of nominal growth across six periods.

In the late 1960s, 23 cents of new federal debt came with each dollar of nominal growth. Since 2015, it has taken about $1.52. Therefore, when you spend more than a dollar of borrowed money to buy a dollar of output, you aren’t “stimulating” anything. You’re substituting. Lacy Hunt at Hoisington has made this case for years, and the arithmetic keeps proving him right.

This is the damage, and notice that normal interest rates play no part in it. The multiplier broke down hardest during the zero-rate era, when money was as cheap as it has ever been in American history and Washington borrowed with both hands because carrying the debt cost almost nothing. Cheap money didn’t fix the problem. It fed it.

Where the popular version goes wrong is the causal chain. Buck describes “crowding out” as debt service that is “pushing investment into Treasury bonds.” That isn’t the mechanism. Crowding out happens because deficit financing competes for a finite pool of national savings. And the CBO, whose 33-cent estimate Buck cites, explicitly notes that private investment falls by less than national saving does, because higher rates attract foreign capital. That’s why the figure is 33 cents, and not a dollar, within a published range of 15 to 50 cents.

Why Normal Interest Rates Are Disinflationary

Here’s the part almost everyone gets backward. Rising long yields are read as an inflation signal, and rates do, in fact, respond to inflationary inputs such as oil prices. However, a study of the data suggests something more interesting, and the decomposition is straightforward.

The front end fell 168 basis points while the long end rose 117. Meanwhile, long-run inflation expectations moved just 20 basis points, and the forward measure the Fed actually watches went the wrong way for the inflation thesis. So roughly 97 of those 117 basis points is real yield and term premium. Not price fears, but rather compensation for duration.

That is a bear steepener driven by supply and term premium while the central bank eases, and it’s a disinflationary configuration, not an inflationary one. Investors are demanding more compensation to hold duration against relentless issuance. They are not demanding compensation for future inflation.

The transmission runs like this. Debt-funded spending pulls demand forward from tomorrow into today, and then servicing that debt diverts income from consumption to interest payments, which is a transfer from one pocket to another rather than new output. Call that “austerity” by arithmetic instead of by legislation.

Read that again carefully, because this is the crux of the “negative multiplier” of debt. For each newly borrowed dollar, its purchasing power buys less economic growth than the dollar before it. When that occurs, as it is currently, demand weakens, money velocity falls, and pricing power erodes. That’s the Japanification path we’ve written about before, and Japan ran that experiment for three decades without producing inflation.

The Pushback: Doesn’t The Long End Still Matter?

So, here is the question that keeps landing on my desk almost daily.

“Higher treasury yields must eventually reach households, so isn’t this just a matter of time?”

The objection is certainly valid. If normal interest rates were doing real damage, the “transmission” should be visible somewhere in the household data by now.

Over the past year, the 10-year Treasury rose about 43 basis points, and the 30-year rose by 39 basis points. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rose only 9 basis points from 6.58% to 6.67%.  Roughly one-fifth of the move in Treasuries actually reached the borrower, because the primary mortgage spread compressed from 231 basis points over the 10-year to 197, absorbing most of the increase before it ever hit a closing table. Kobeissi’s suggestion that mortgages could approach 8% requires another 133 basis points that the market is currently refusing to deliver. Could it happen? Sure. But it just isn’t happening today.

Furthermore, credit data tells a similar story with an important wrinkle. Credit card balances 90 days or more past due just hit 13.1% in the first quarter, which is a 15-year high. However, aggregate household delinquency rates have remained at 4.8% and have barely moved, while credit card transitions into early delinquency have actually ticked down. While the New York Fed describes the pattern as “K-shaped”, it is the prime borrowers who are fine, while subprime and the 18-to-29 cohort are genuinely struggling.

In other words, the stress at the bottom of the income ladder is “crowding out” working with brutal efficiency, and it holds down spending without threatening the banking system. It is the disinflation showing up in real households, and it tells you that normal interest rates are doing their job: pricing risk and rationing credit.

What Normal Interest Rates Mean For Portfolios

The commentary from Adam and the others is great for getting clicks and views, but as Adam always states, this is about making “thoughtful decisions for your money.” Therefore, if we follow the argument to its end, it lands in an awkward place for both camps.

• If debt truly suppresses growth, and if the long end is repricing real term premium rather than inflation, then a 5.2% 30-year yield is not a warning that the economy is about to break.
• Instead, it’s the price a lender can now demand in a market that has lost its biggest price-blind buyer.

When it comes to carrying bonds in a portfolio allocation, we favor that analysis. Think about it this way. If real yields are near 2.8%, with long-run inflation expectations anchored around 2.5% and a growth impulse that weakens each time debt substitutes for output, such seems to be a reasonable entry point for extending duration in portfolios.

We are not saying do so aggressively, and certainly not all at once. Investors can buy into weakness, layer purchases in tranches, and allocate them to the part of a portfolio that still holds equities.

Will that trade be right immediately? No. The term premium can widen further, and the Treasury’s issuance mix at the long end is a policy decision nobody can forecast. If fiscal deficits keep widening, and foreign demand weakens, the long bond can grind higher for longer than any valuation argument suggests. However, that is the cost of this position, and you should size it knowing that.

However, the trade-off cuts the other way too. Extending duration reduces portfolio volatility and gives you a hedge that actually works if growth disappoints. It also protects your principal investment when held to maturity. However, it caps your portfolio upside if nominal growth surprises to the upside. As Howard Marks keeps reminding us,

“You don’t get paid for being early, you get paid for being right about what you’re being compensated to own.”

What does this mean for investors? Stop treating normal interest rates as a crisis gauge. Watch the average coupon on the federal debt, the rate of change in term premium, and whether nominal growth is outrunning the interest clock. Those three tell you something, but the “scary” headlines about yields tell you almost nothing.

The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 10:30

Diesel Crack Spread Madness Deepens As Jefferies Finds No Easy Exit From Russia's Refining Crisis

Refined-product markets have emerged as the epicenter of the global energy crisis, with commodity desks across Wall Street, including Goldman, Citi, Bank of America and Jefferies, warning that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are converging into a perfect storm for global fuel supplies.

As we close out this week, Monday marked a historic milestone, with Bloomberg's front-month US diesel crack spread (HOCL1 Index) topping $100 per barrel for the first time as the diesel shortage intensified and the spread landed on everyone's radar.

Four days before the HOCL1 Index breached the $100 mark, we cited notable Wall Street commodity desks that warned about the "perfect storm" brewing in refining markets:

• Diesel Crack Spread Explodes To Record As Wall Street Warns Of Refined-Products "Perfect Storm"

Then, early Monday morning, we reported:

• "Absolutely Unprecedented": Diesel Crack Spread Hits Record As Refined-Products Crisis Arrives

By late evening, our X post on the HOCL1 Index had gone absolutely viral because a reading above $100 is not only unprecedented, but also suggests, as we noted, that the "industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers are about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history."

Diesel crack hits record $102. This is absolutely unprecedented.

Industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers about to be hit with the biggest energy pass through in history pic.twitter.com/OtAdgrCvb3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 17, 2026

Then, by Wednesday, Jeff Currie, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, went on CNBC to explain, as we've warned, that the real crisis is not in crude, but in diesel markets.

"Nobody on the planet earth consumes crude oil," Currie told CNBC. "Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look considerably uglier."

By Thursday, Currie explained that the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.

"Stop looking at crude. Nobody consumes it but refineries. The economy runs on gasoline and diesel, and that consumption-weighted basket costs $165 against $85 WTI," Currie wrote on X. Read the report.

Certainly, all this attention on diesel crack spreads was enough to have many others on X discussing what the spread meant and its implications...

For more color on how Ukraine's expanding drone campaign is achieving what years of Western sanctions failed to deliver to Washington and European elites, Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne spoke with Ronald Smith, a specialist in Russian oil and gas, to discuss the ongoing and worsening crisis in Russia's refining and product markets.

"Repair downtime is often short, but consistent strikes have pressured throughput, leading to export product bans. Gasoline exports are unlikely to resume until '27. The diesel ban could be lifted in Oct, but volumes will likely stay low, continuing to support cracks. Asked about paths forward, answers were few," Byrne wrote in the note published Thursday.

Here are Byrne's highlights from the conversation with Smith, which provide readers with a better understanding of Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian energy assets as one of the factors, along with Hormuz disruptions, driving global refining markets into crisis:

Russian Refining Overview. Russia has nameplate refining capacity of ~6.7mmbpd (~6.5% of global capacity); however, throughput has historically been lower, at ~5.0-5.5mmbpd. In Aug '26, throughput collapsed to ~4mmbpd amid ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes. In '25, Russia produced ~0.95mmbpd of gasoline and ~1.7 mmbpd of diesel, but due to the Ukrainian attacks, Aug '26 gasoline is down to ~0.65mmbpd and diesel to ~1mmbpd.

Ukraine Drone Campaign. In Jan '24, Ukraine began launching sporadic strikes on Russian refineries, but attacks climbed from Aug to Sept-25 with ~3 refineries hit per week. Attacks dipped in 1Q26 (~1 pw), before intensifying to ~4 pw in May-Jul 26 and up to ~5 pw in Aug '26, leading to a fuel crisis & export restrictions. Strikes have focused mainly on refineries near Ukraine (e.g., Syzran, Saratov, and Ryazan), but the attack on Omsk (2,675km) demonstrated both the expanding reach of Ukrainian drones and the vulnerability of Russia's most sophisticated refinery. While some larger/select refineries have been consistently targeted (e.g., Ryazan & Ufa), other scale plants have been hit a only a few times, with little recognizable pattern.

Refinery Outages. The duration of downtime depends on the complexity of the unit hit and the availability of replacement materials, with no average downtime per strike. That said, ~50% of outages are <2w and ~75% are <1m, but there have been a handful of 3-6m outages (e.g., Moscow). Mr Smith highlights that Soviet refinery units were designed to be dispersed to defend against strikes, and that Russia has developed domestic engineering capabilities. Still, sanctions and technology restrictions play a role, but China has been somewhat supportive, per Mr Smith. To compensate for the damaged refineries, functional refineries are running at higher utilizations and are encouraged by officials to delay maintenance, which may lead to more unplanned outages if continued. Deputy PM Novak recently stated that several refineries will return to service in the near future.

Russian Product & Crude Exports. In '25, Russia was a net exporter of ~150mbpd of gasoline, ~850mbpd of diesel, and ~30mbpd of jet fuel, but through '26 these have plunged amid persistent refinery outages. In April '26, Russia banned gasoline exports and, in July '26, diesel exports. In aggregate, Mr Smith estimates that Ukrainian drone strikes have removed ~1.1mmbpd of refined products from global mkts, mostly diesel (~750mbpd). Mr Smith asserts that gasoline exports are unlikely to resume until '27, but the diesel export ban could be lifted post-harvest season (Oct), but with exports staying low. This depends on the pace of Ukraine's drone campaign, the speed of Russia's repairs, and Russian defensive effectiveness. With no global product exporter able to fully offset the lost exports, Russian outages will continue to put upward pressure on crack spreads.

Because of the lower refining capacity available, crude exports surged to ~8.9mmbpd in July '26, but remain below OPEC+ quotas. Mr Smith suggests that Russia could be at physical crude export limits, and export capacity could be compromised by drone strikes.

Professional subscribers can read much more about crack spreads and the energy crisis on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 09:55

President AOC's First Term

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

The date is August 20th, 2032.

We’re nearing the end of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s first term as president.

The wave of naive optimism that swept her into power has faded. But the damage is done. With a majority in both the Senate and House, the Democrats made big moves.

First they eliminated the Senate filibuster. No more 60 votes needed to pass most legislation. Now a simple majority will do. The political equivalent of a nuclear first strike.

Then AOC’s coalition created two new states: Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. That’s 4 more Democratic Senators, and additional seats in the House.

The Supreme Court was quickly expanded from 9 to 13 justices. The number of justices has changed before, and there’s no hard and fast rule in the Constitution.

Justice Clarence Thomas, the court’s last Constitutionalist, retired in 2028 due to health issues. So the highest court in the nation has 5 new neoliberal judges.

ICE was abolished almost immediately. Immigration, both legal and illegal, is out of control. Another 11 million illegals have entered, mostly from Latin America. And 4 million visa workers. Another 4 million refugees and “asylum seekers” from Africa and the Middle East.

All this immigration undercut American workers’ wages, drove up real estate prices, took over small towns, and drained social welfare programs.

Green cards are now granted to immigrants who have been in the country for 3 years, regardless of how they entered. Citizenship and voting rights after 6 years.

The Democrats quickly set themselves up for a permanent majority.

Fruits of the Revolution

The unemployment rate hit 18% this year, even with all the book-cooking. AI, outsourcing, and poor leadership have taken a toll.

The federal deficit hit $5.3 trillion. The stagflation which began in 2029 shows no signs of letting up.

Inflation is running at a 16% clip. A gallon of gas costs $11.34, and diesel is $15 if you can find it. A third of American oil refineries have been shuttered under new environmental regulations.

Anyone worth more than $1 million faces an annual wealth tax of 3%. Family businesses are sold at firesale prices. Wealthy Americans flee the country, taking their assets with them.

Power blackouts are common in big cities. No new generating plants have been built, and data centers continue to tax the grid. With copper trading at $30 a pound, thieves rip out cabling anywhere they can find it.

The Green New Scam reached new heights. Billions of dollars were handed out to politically-connected crooks to build high-speed rail, electric vehicles, and “carbon-free” energy. It’s a total writeoff.

Biden-era censorship on social media platforms returns.

‘Equality’

Households earning less than $80,000 per year now receive Universal Basic Income (UBI) of about $30,000 a year. Barely enough for a family to live on.

UBI was celebrated by the masses early on. But the lack of motivation to get up and work creates a pervasive malaise across the country. Tent cities sprout up like weeds. The scourge of drug addiction worsens.

DEI returns with a vengeance. All of President Trump’s executive orders were reversed in the first month of AOC’s term. Companies are punished harshly if they have too many white male executives. Diversity quotas are enforced with an iron fist.

Universal healthcare went live in 2030. If you thought the old system was bad, this is a nightmare. Patients often wait a year to see a specialist. Need a scan? Tough luck.

Healthcare fraud reaches new levels as criminals target an exploitable system.

It’s been a tough few years. Yet AOC is still on track to win a second term. Millions of new immigrant voters will be the deciding factor.

Back to the Present

I wrote this piece as a thought experiment, pondering what could happen if Dems sweep Congress and win the presidency in 2028.

Honestly, this scenario isn’t all that crazy. It could well happen.

The Republican party needs to get their act together, quickly.

Trump really needs to resolve the war with Iran before midterms. It’s incredibly unpopular with independents and the libertarian-leaning right. If he doesn’t, the chances of a socialist sweep rise significantly. And as I explained above, the consequences could be catastrophic.

Republicans should not let that happen. Make a deal with Iran and be done with it. Re-focus on the American people. If the war is ongoing and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed during midterms, it’s not going to go well for the GOP. It gives far too much firepower to the Dems.

If a socialist like AOC wins, it’s going to be bad news for all Americans, but especially business owners and investors. Our friend Jim Rickards recently wrote the following:

The rise of socialism inside the Democratic Party is an enormously important political story on its own. But it also has huge investment implications that could affect your portfolio.

Many democratic socialists favor higher taxes on wealthy households, expanded government healthcare and tuition programs and sweeping changes to policing, immigration and other institutions. Some prominent figures on the left have also supported “wealth taxes” — which would tax certain holdings of property, shares, bonds and other assets rather than merely income.

Jim nails it, per usual. Much is at stake. If someone like AOC wins, our country might not recover for decades. If not longer.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 09:20