Zero Hedge

Waymo Robotaxi "Snitches" On Two 15-Year-Olds Drinking & Shooting Orbeez Guns In Bay Area

Waymo Robotaxi "Snitches" On Two 15-Year-Olds Drinking & Shooting Orbeez Guns In Bay Area

Two 15-year-old boys were detained in San Mateo Monday afternoon after the Waymo robotaxi they were riding in reported them to police - for drinking alcohol and firing a gel-bead blaster out of the moving car - then pulled itself over so officers could collect them.

Waymo's remote monitors spotted the behavior on the vehicle's interior cameras and called the San Mateo Police Department around 2:10 p.m. with the car's exact location. The company then disabled the vehicle near 20th Avenue and El Camino Real, telling the pair the car was having trouble - a ruse that bought officers time to get into position.

Because the initial report described what looked like a real firearm, police conducted a high-risk stop, approaching with guns drawn and a police dog deployed. No one was hurt. Inside, officers found an Orbeez-style gel blaster - painted over to pass for the real thing - and open alcohol.

The teens cooperated, were detained, and were released to their parents. The case has been forwarded to the San Mateo County District Attorney's office for review of possible charges, including underage drinking, and police say they plan to pull the Waymo's interior video.

"Parents do you know where your teens are? @waymo does!" The department wrote on Facebook: "After calling us and stopping the car, we were able to safely remove both subjects and determined they were shooting Orbeez from the car as they sipped on afternoon libations while being chauffeured around town in the driverless vehicle."

"While there was some ingenuity to this scheme, toy guns, water guns, and BB guns all pose real dangers, especially to an untrained eye... Shooting projectiles at speed can cause real damage. And lest not forget the underage drinking. All bad ideas today for these two. Well, the Waymo might have been the smartest idea yet, because driving impaired would've made this so much worse."

Waymo bars alcohol in its vehicles and doesn't allow unaccompanied minors in its California markets - so the ride was violating the rules before the first bead flew - and company policy notes that support staff "may access live video during a trip" in urgent circumstances.

"Safety is our highest priority at Waymo," a company spokesperson said in a statement after the story broke. "This behavior violates our user agreement, and while these sorts of events are rare, we take them extremely seriously and remain committed to improving road safety and mobility in the cities where we operate."

Online, the reaction split between "snitching" complaints, designated-driver jokes, and the question underneath them: the robotaxi that gets you home safely is also a camera platform that can pull itself over and hand you to the police. For two 15-year-olds, the lesson arrived early - no driver doesn't mean nobody's watching.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 17:20

Some College Students Are Testing At The Level Of 10-Year-Olds

Some College Students Are Testing At The Level Of 10-Year-Olds

Via Futurism,

Are you smarter than a 4th grader?

Gone are the days of university freshmen reading classical philosophers like Plato or contemporary pedagogues like Ta-Nehisi Coates. These days, incoming college students are lucky if they can get through Judy Blume’s “Tales of a Fourth Grade Nothing.”

According to a new “Survey of Adult Skills” conducted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - a forum for 38 high-income, predominantly Western countries - a not insignificant number of adult students enrolled in higher education are now reading and doing math at a level which, in a more functional society, would be alarming for a middle schooler.

The survey, first spotted by the Economist, tested around 160,000 people of all ages, across all 38 member states. It found that across all OECD member countries, a full 8 percent of college students are reading at the level of a ten-year-old, if not worse. While countries like Germany and France rang in at under 5 percent, countries like Poland, Israel, and the United States blew the curve at 21, 20, and 14 percent, respectively.

The numbers aren’t much better when it comes to math.

Across OECD countries, 9 percent of college students do math at or below a ten-year-old level. In Italy, the US, and Slovakia, that figure jumps to over 15 percent — only outdone by Israel, where roughly 21 percent of college students were underachieving at the same low benchmark.

It seems there are numerous compounding explanations for these test results: pandemic-era learning gaps leading to lower levels of preparation, declining college enrollment forcing schools to lower admissions standards, and lower levels of public funding for education, to name a few.

The results also coincide with the explosion of large language models like ChatGPT, which by many accounts have carved out a new floor for academic failure in both K-12 and college-level education.

While there’s no denying how complicated the issue is, there is evidence that removing technology from classrooms altogether could offer an immediate boost.

In one classroom in Minneapolis, for example, a literature and English teacher banned phones and laptops, requiring all coursework to be done on pencil and paper.

As the school-year started in September, just 46 percent of the students involved said they felt confident about their reading skills. A few months later in February, that number stood at 95 percent.

Though it’s just one classroom, something is clearly off the rails in the education systems of the richest countries of the world — and the longer it goes unaddressed, the more students will be pushed into the world with the reading skills of 4th graders.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 17:00

Contrary To Popular Belief, Platner Has All The Leverage

Contrary To Popular Belief, Platner Has All The Leverage

Graham Platner is supposed to be finished. The Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine faces a rape allegation, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have pulled their endorsements, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has told him they won't spend any money on his campaign if he stays on the ballot. He has until Monday to withdraw before Maine law locks Democrats into running him in November, whether they like it or not.

By every conventional measure, Platner should be packing his bags.

Instead, he is negotiating. Platner has reportedly told the Maine Democratic Party that any replacement must match his own ideological commitments, a demand that has left party strategists sputtering. So far, Rep. Valli Geiger (D-Rockland) says Platner is urging her to try and take his place on the ballot. Dan Pfeiffer, once a senior adviser to Barack Obama, wrote on his Substack that continuing the race is not an option for Platner and predicted a "zombie campaign marching on to certain defeat with no support and no resources." Chris Cillizza was blunter on X, telling Platner he has "zero leverage."

Pfeiffer and Cillizza are wrong, and the reason exposes something uncomfortable about the position Democrats have put themselves in.

Platner does not have to withdraw, and the reason he holds most of the cards is simple: the party has nothing it can offer him to leave quietly. The traditional exit ramp for a troubled nominee involves some quiet exchange, a future appointment, a promise of support down the road, and a graceful landing somewhere else. None of that works for Platner because dropping out after winning the nomination, with his baggage, makes him too damaged.

His campaign has also functioned as a vehicle for the Democratic Socialists of America, an organization working methodically to take over the Democratic Party from the inside rather than build a third option outside it.

The other detail Pfeiffer and Cillizza skip past is that Platner won his primary fair and square, and voters knew what they were getting. The Nazi tattoo, the self-described communism, the sexting with multiple women, his old presence on a site associated with child predators, a credible accusation that he abused a former girlfriend: all of it was public before the primary.

When the first abuse allegation surfaced during the campaign, Democratic officials rallied around him, and his campaign posted its best single fundraising day of the race. Sanders campaigned with him at "Fight Oligarchy" rallies. Rep. Ro Khanna flew to Portland to stand beside him. The New York Times even sat on a rape accusation against Platner despite believing the allegation was credible. None of that was a secret to the people now demanding his exit. What changed was the polling.

Democrats spent months rationalizing their support for a candidate they now describe in private as a liability, largely because he looked like their best shot at unseating Sen. Susan Collins, a race the party repeatedly said was central to retaking the Senate majority. For Platner, as long as the numbers held, concerns about his character were excused. Now that the race has tightened, the establishment wants him gone, and it is dressing up a polling problem as a moral awakening.

The Maine Democratic Party is even starting to develop a process to replace Platner, if he withdraws.

"While the Platner campaign remains focused on distracting from the job of defeating Susan Collins in November with false accusations against us, the Maine Democratic Party remains hyper focused on developing a representative, transparent and inclusive process to select a new nominee when he chooses to withdraw from the race," Devon Murphy-Anderson, Executive Director of the Maine Democratic Party, said in a statement. "While we may be frustrated with Graham Platner's continued efforts to manipulate this process, we are so thankful for his supporters and all of their efforts to defeat Susan Collins - they are a vital part of our Party and deserve to participate in an open process to select Platner's replacement."

But, Platner understands the mechanics of his own situation better than his critics do. He has every reason to believe he can either insist on the candidate of his choice to replace him (he’s reportedly urging Maine State Representative Valli Geiger, (D-Rockland) to take his place, but there’s no guarantee the party will back her) or stay in and carry on by simply denying the allegations, and his DSA-aligned supporters are already framing the pressure campaign as a hit job

If Platner drops out, his political career ends with him.

He knows that.

If he stays, national Democrats face an unpleasant choice: abandon a Senate seat they have spent a year calling essential, or hold their noses and back a nominee they cannot control and increasingly cannot defend.

Maine primary voters already absorbed most of what is now scandalizing Washington, and forcing Platner off the ballot risks convincing his base that the accusations are simply the latest excuse from a party establishment that never wanted him in the first place. Platner's defiance is a clear sign that he knows he has all the leverage here, and the establishment must decide what to do about it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 16:40

Socialism Is Targeting The Foundations That Made America Great

Socialism Is Targeting The Foundations That Made America Great

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times,

This is a lightly edited transcript of a July 6 segment of the Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words podcast.

One question that came up constantly during this 250th anniversary Fourth of July celebration was whether we were gonna make it another 250 years, 500 years. We could be longer than the Roman Republic. Longer than the Roman Empire.

Democratic Socialists of America march in downtown Berkeley, Calif., on Aug. 5, 2018. Amy Osborne/AFP/Getty Images

And to answer that question, you have to know what allowed us to get this far, and for those who don't like us, what they would like to do to stop us.

And it turns out that the reasons that we survived 250 years and the reasons that we might survive another 250 years are precisely the areas where our critics would wish us to fail, or who are actively trying to see that we fail.

Take the first one, our Constitution. What's brilliant about the American Constitution is its federalism.

It outlines all the duties and prerogatives of the federal government, and then it says anything that is not relegated to the federal government is up to the states, and that's the majority of human experiences. It doesn't mean the states can fight one another or pass laws against one another or pass laws against the federal government.

The federal government has ultimate authority, but this federalism means that if California wants to tax 13.3 percent and Florida wants to tax 0 percent, then maybe 300,000 people a year will go to Florida and still enjoy the American experience, and vice versa.

You can go to any state in the country and what it really means is you're having 50 separate experiments.

You're all united by the federal government and the checks and balances of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. But you have 50 different interpretations of them based on local and regional concerns, and that gives Americans a lot of choice, and that means when you're disaffected and you're angry at your lot in life, you have 49 other choices, and it's been a wonderful way of easing tensions.

The second is that we have been the beneficiary of legal immigration. We take more immigrants than any place in the world, and people have remarked that as we speak, the people who created Google, for example, or Elon Musk, were all legal immigrants, and they came to the United States because this is the only place in the world where you would have a free market economy, a protection of private wealth, and an encouragement of the population to be successful and to take risk.

And it's impossible to envision a Silicon Valley in the Muslim Middle East. It just wouldn't happen. Wouldn't happen. You couldn't have a Harvard or Yale or Princeton in today's China. They wouldn't allow free speech. You wouldn't have most of our American institutions in any other place.

And that means we get all of these legal immigrants, and they enrich our country if they come in diverse fashion, in numbers that can be assimilated legally with some knowledge of our country and preferably with English language fluency.

The other third reason is we were very lucky naturally. Once the United States, whether you like it or not, embraced Manifest Destiny and decided we were not going to be a continent of warring states as was Europe, 30 or 40 individual nations, but one uniform state in North America, then it was richly endowed for all of us.

We had mining, we had gold, we had silver, we had iron ore, we had almost... We even have rare minerals, rare earth minerals we have not fully tapped. We have oil, we have coal, we have hydroelectric. We have the richest energy nation in the world. We're pumping more oil and gas than any other country in the history of the universe.

We have plentiful timber. We have plentiful farmland. We're the largest farming producing country by the value of our exports and our domestic produce in the world. We have two huge coastlines, not to count the Gulf of America.

In other words, we're protected from the insanity that goes on in Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia, and we always have been.

So, the sheer size of the American continent, its role in American history as a frontier, its role as a safety valve where people could head West, young men, if they were disaffected by events on the East Coast, and they could make a fortune or make a livelihood farming or in timber or in minerals or in energy, you name it.

There's a fourth reason that we're very successful, and that is we have a free market, private property economy. We're not a socialist, we're not a communist country.

In other words, people flock to the United States from countries where there is no economic opportunity. It either is statism controlled by the state or it's crony capitalist, and that's why we have the most billionaires in the world.

China has more people than we do, four times more people. Russia has twice, three times the territory, but we have more people in the affluent class.

And finally, we have a middle class. Our middle class is the largest in the world. We're not a pyramidal society of a few rich people on top that use their wealth for special dispensations or to affect the government or a mass of poor who are subsidized and always demanding entitlements.

Free middle class. Now, those are our strengths.

So if you wanted to hurt the United States or to ensure that it would not last 250 years, what would you do to stop that? Well, the first thing that I would do is I would start questioning the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. So, what do we see now from, for example, the left?

They're always attacking the Second Amendment, the right to bear arms. They want to pack the court. They want to get rid of the filibuster. It is in the Constitution, the Electoral College. They want to ban or destroy the Electoral College.

They want to bring in two new states specifically, not one conservative and one liberal like the old Alaska-Hawaii compromise, but two liberal new states, Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., and get four senators.

Anytime you see anyone that wants to alter the system like that, you know that they don't have the best interest of the United States because the system has worked for 250 years in most of these cases.

The second thing is you would want to, as I said earlier, you would want to say, we don't want legal-only immigration. We want anybody to come in. So we have 30 million illegal immigrants right now. Ten to 12 million came in under Joe Biden. We have no idea who they are. You walk across the border.

Is he a criminal? I don't know. Is he Albert Einstein? I don't know. Does he have COVID-19? I don't know. We were vaccinating in a mandatory fashion Americans in 2020 while people were flooding across in 2020, '21, '22, flooding across the border without border security.

And today, even though legal immigration has been the bulwark of what we've seen, we are getting immigrants who even come in legally and have nothing but hostile attitudes toward their generous host.

If you also wanted to damage the United States, then you would look at what I just talked about, natural resources. You would say no mining. We're in a problem right now with rare earths. We're short. They're critical to our economy. China has a monopoly, but we have some of the most abundant rare earth minerals in the world and we've been prohibited from using them.

We have the richest deposits of oil. Until recently, we did not develop them all. We did not develop coal in the proper way.

Our farming sector, the best and most efficient in the world, is under attack by environmentalists who want to cut off the water here in California.

I'm speaking from the richest agricultural county in the United States, Fresno County, and yet it needs water that has been sent out on the San Joaquin River into the ocean.

If you also wanted to destroy the United States or see it not last too much longer, you would kind of assault the middle class.

You would look at the United States as a binary, a Marxist binary. It is comprised not by class but by race. So, 70 percent, 65 percent are white oppressors. They are mostly white male, to be more particular, or more sensational, white male Christian heterosexuals, or the white race, or whatever we call these silly terms.

They are the exploiter, victimizer, and everybody on the other side is the victimized or oppressed. This is the binary that the Democratic Socialists of America and like-minded people use to alienate and divide the country, and it's worked very well.

But in between those two racial binaries is a class system in which the middle class still is the largest class and was the exact form, shape of a class system that the founders thought would be essential to republican government.

And then finally, of course, one of our greatest strengths is we have institutionalized a free market private property economy. Do away with that, and we go the way of the old Soviet Union or Cuba or Venezuela.

And what do we see now? We have people in the Democratic Socialists of America that want to confiscate property, get the means of production, take over tenant-landlord relationships, and absorb the private sector into the state.

If that happens, we will be impoverished.

So, we can make it another 250 years if we do what we did the last 250 years. But if we let people destroy those strengths that I enumerated, then we won't last another 50 years.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 16:20

After Tonight's Strikes, Trump Threatens "Much Worse" Bombing If Iran Doesn't Stop Attacks

After Tonight's Strikes, Trump Threatens "Much Worse" Bombing If Iran Doesn't Stop Attacks Summary
  • Trump threatens "it will get much worse" after Wednesday night US attack wave commences along Iran's coast.
  • Trump tells NATO summit that Iran wants to assassinate him: "on every single one of their list."
  • Iran threatens to reclose the Strait of Hormuz and suspended final talks with the US.
  • The US earlier revoked an Iranian oil waiver & now signals readiness to restore a maritime blockade.
  • Trump said the ceasefire is over and warned of fresh US strikes on Iran, probably "tonight".
  • Oil jumps above $80 as fears of renewed conflict & return to Hormuz Strait closure intensifies.
//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 19% · No 82%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Threatens "Much Worse" Bombing If Iran Doesn't Stop Attacks

Following the earlier (threatened) strikes. President Trump has taken to his Truth Social account to explain to Iran what happens next:

"This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!"

His post also included the following image of an alleged explosion in Chabahar (though it is unclear if this is a current photo)...

We suspect this will only serve to further bolster whatever group is actually attacking the tankers.

Another US Strike Wave On Iran Commences

After 11pm Tehran time, there are fresh reports of explosions across multiple locations along Iran's coast, coming from several regional sources:

  • Explosions heard in Bandar Abbas and Sirik in the south of the country
  • Explosions heard in several areas of Hormozgan, Al Jazeera reports;
  • Air defenses activated on Sirik Island
  • Explosions reported in Bandar Abbas, Iran, Jerusalem post reports

This has come within hours of Iran having announced the suspension of talks on a final settlement with the United States. Also, President Trump earlier during the NATO summit warned that more US strikes would be forthcoming tonight - it appears he's making good on this threat. "I'll give a little warning: We're going to hit them hard tonight," he told reporters just before his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Reports of IRGC base targeted & struck:

More images emerging from the nighttime raids:

Like last night, Iran's military is expected to respond, after the following warning: Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister says recent actions by US won't stay without response, IRIB reports. Below is confirmation that the attacks are indeed underway:

  • The US has informed Tel Aviv that it will launch powerful strikes against Iran tonight, Al Arabiya reports citing an Israeli source
  • Iranian opposition sources report that maritime industries, shipyards, and the Revolutionary Guards' naval base in Bandar Abbas were attacked, report Kan News
  • Wednesday's strikes were broader in scope than the strikes the day before, targeting IRGC coastal radars, anti-ship missile sites and air defense systems, Axios' Ravid reports citing a senior US official

Trump Tells NATO Summit Iranians Want To Assassinate Him

President Trump while giving a closing address at the end of the NATO summit in Ankara repeatedly claimed that Iran was plotting to assassinate him, saying he was "on every single one of their list." He claimed: "They want to take out the US Leader. I'm on every single one of their list. So far, I've had a bit of luck, but maybe it won't last. They're evil and sick people, and we must get rid of this cancer."

He suggested that it's time to "finish the job" and yet at other times while fielding questions from reporters shied away from laying out anything that sounds like regime change. Instead he opted to again talk about how the US can never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. He again stressed that "lunatics" can never have a nuclear weapon.

On the claimed assassination plot, it's unclear whether he has something specific in mind, in terms of a recent statement from the Iranian government. He could be referencing media reports from earlier this week quoting mourners and speakers at Khamenei's funeral. For example the following was in a Tuesday Reuters report:

As they passed under a bridge, mourners hurled stones at a billboard hung from above ​showing U.S. President Donald Trump with a bullet aimed at his head.

"The U.S. killed our father," it read. "We won't let you go!"

As demonstrators set fire ​to U.S. and British flags, women in black chadors held aloft red placards with the English words "KILL TRUMP" in black letters.

Others held ⁠aloft posters with the faces of Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, each depicted in the crosshairs of a ​gunsight, with the words "There will be blood".

Ahead of more potential renewed strikes on Iran tonight, CENTCOM is saying its forces are at the ready:

Iran Threatens To Reclose Strait, as US Military 'Ready' to Restart Blockade

Iran has once again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, according to state broadcaster Press TV on Wednesday, citing an Iranian official. Iran is of course planning strait only under its own arrangements, or a protocol involving collection of fees and utilizing a designated route close to its coast, "as per the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)."

The Iranian official further warned the military stands ready to "strike at least twice the number of targets hit" in response to any strikes by the United States. "The developments of the past 48 hours show Iran won't back down from managing the Hormuz," the source noted.

  • "The U.S. military stands ready to restart the blockade of ships to and from Iranian ports if ordered to do so, a U.S. official tells Fox News", Fox's Friden reports.
  • "Iran suspends talks on a final settlement with the United States", TASS reports citing an Iranian source.

"Any threat will receive a powerful response," the official was quoted in Press TV as saying, and warned further that the Islamic Republic's armed forces do "not distinguish between the United States and its partners in the region." The official warned Trump that the US "will gain nothing" from making such threats.

"He (Trump) will certainly lose both the Strait of Hormuz and the negotiations over a final agreement," said the source. "The choice is now his." Meanwhile...

OIL EXTENDS GAINS, BRENT CRUDE RISES ABOVE $80 A BARREL

And WTI...

Trump: "Probably Hit Iran Tonight"

After earlier saying from the NATO summit in Ankara that the Iran ceasefire is "over" - and amid fears of renewal of full-scale war given that Tehran has launched drone and missile attacks on nearby American allies Kuwait and Bahrain once again, President Trump said on Wednesday that he would "probably hit Iran tonight".

He issued the major threat and warning during a press conference at the NATO summit: "I'll give a little warning: We're going to hit them hard tonight," he told reporters just before his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He later lambasted Iran for "killing soldiers, killing people for 47 years," and that because of that, the US has "a score to settle." He added: "We may just do it without a deal." He also sought to once again explain his view that it's not about regime change, but about the nuclear issue.

Geopolitical news source DropSite is pushing back against some of Trump's newest claims, particularly that Iranians security services gunned down "54,000 protesters" during the January economic protests, commenting:

Trump today claimed Iran’s revolutionary regime killed 54,000 protesters at the start of the year, inflating the 40,000 figure he repeated through much of the US-Israeli war to justify and build support for U.S. action. There is no evidence for either figure.

HRANA, which has received U.S. funding, documented about 7,000 deaths, including many Iranian security and police. Iran puts the death toll just above 3,100 and says rioters killed civilians during protests that were overtaken by Israel- and U.S.-backed armed elements. Scores of videos from the January 2026 riots show armed men destroying mosques and government buildings and carrying out vigilante killings of security personnel.

Meanwhile, it's not a war, Trump has repeated... but what's next and what is the ultimate endgame here? Is there a coherent strategy yet? Trump further on Wednesday, while speaking alongside Zelensky and fielding questions, floated that "if we have to we will take out higher level targets" - and that "we may take over Kharg Island". He again admitted the Iran deal may not stick, after the US "knocked out 28 boats last night". He further warned that US forces will probably take out more boats tonight.

  • TRUMP, ON ATTACKS TONIGHT: NOT A THING IRAN CAN DO ABOUT IT
  • TRUMP:WOULD HATE TO STRIKE DESALINATION PLANTS, BUT MAY HAVE TO
  • TRUMP: WE MAY PUT DOWN THE BLOCKADE ON IRAN
  • TRUMP: BLOCKADE WOULD ONLY APPLY TO IRAN
Trump on Ceasefire, MoU Deal: "I think it's over; they're scum."

Brent crude futures jumped more than 6% in London after President Trump told reporters at a press conference in Ankara that the tentative ceasefire with Iran is over.

"To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore; they're scum," Trump told reporters. 

Trump's remarks came after Iran launched missiles and kamikaze drones at several merchant vessels in the Hormuz chokepoint on Tuesday. This was countered by overnight US strikes, as fears of conflict erupting once more are on the rise.

However, Trump stopped short of saying the U.S. would restart the war and said he would let talks continue if the parties were willing.

Crude Update

In European trade, front-month Brent crude futures jumped 6% to $78.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 6.2% to $74.85 a barrel. Natural gas prices rose as well, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 4.8% to 49.04 euros per megawatt-hour.

Hours before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, reversing a key element of the interim deal.

Trump also told reporters that he would continue to let his negotiators talk to Tehran, though he thought "they're wasting their time."

Eroding Confidence in Strait's Reopening

On Tuesday afternoon, the Joint Maritime Information Center upgraded the Hormuz risk rating to "Severe" after three tankers were targeted by Iran. This renewed uncertainty in the critical waterway will only pressure the normalization of vessel flows.

"Every renewed attack on commercial shipping further erodes confidence in the Strait's reopening, making each future recovery more fragile than the last," said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler. "If every reopening is assumed to be temporary, freight rates remain elevated, insurance costs remain high and fewer vessels are willing to re-enter the Gulf."

Dominic Ellis, UBS equity analyst covering oil and gas, wrote in a note:

The US carried out a new round of strikes against Iran in response to recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran in turn launched missile and drone attacks on US assets in Kuwait and Bahrain. While this latest escalation does not mean an end to the diplomatic progress made in recent weeks, it underscores the challenges of diplomacy when both sides believe they have the upper hand.

Markets were too quick to buy into the de-escalation narrative in my view, and while there has been evidence of progress and of a rebound in vessel flows via the Strait of Hormuz, the latest developments may lead to more realistic expectations on the return to normalcy and a slightly higher range for oil in the near term.

The likelihood of a spike above $100/b remains low, however, even in the event of further tit-for-tat strikes in the Middle East, given the surprise sustained drop in Chinese crude imports.

Latest Bloomberg data tracking ships transiting the Hormuz chokepoint with transponders on remain elevated, but the number of vessels making the East-West route has fallen dramatically, while West-East remains steady.

Also, note that the oil market's forward curve has shifted into backwardation. This occurs when near-term futures trade at a premium to longer-dated contracts. The shift shows traders are once again willing to pay up for immediate crude supplies.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk...

Iran Commentary

  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the US has violated major parts of the MoU, citing US attacks on southern Iran, reinstating oil sanctions and threats of further strikes as MoU violations.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry states that the US activity overnight has "rendered important and fundamental parts of the Memorandum of Understanding on the End of the War ineffective".
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said the US, whether as World Cup host or in its foreign policy, manipulates the rules and resorts to deception, and that Iran rejects such tactics.
  • Iran's top joint miliary command said Iran will give a crushing response to America's aggression and terrorist action, and under no circumstances will they allow them to interfere in the affairs of the Strait of Hormuz and its management.
  • Advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader said US President Trump intends to attack again and we are fully prepared.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry condemns the US Treasury's move to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, will take any measure it deems necessary to safeguard its interests and national security. Iran holds the US government responsible for the consequences of the breach of the Memorandum of Understanding.

Overnight Attacks

  • Several explosions have been heard in Bushehr, Iran, according to Mehr news; Mehr's journalist on Kharg Island denies reported of an attack on Kharg, despite some reported of an incident being published. Elsewhere, sirens were reported in Bahrain once again.
  • Renewed explosions sounds heard around Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, Mehr reported.
  • Iran's army said it targeted the Sheikh Isa Base in Bahrain and warns of more attacks if the US repeats strikes on Iran, Mehr reported.
  • Iran's IRGC said that, in response to the US aggression, they hit 85 important US military installations in Port Salman, Bahrain's 5th Maritime Zone and Kuwait's Ali Salem Air Base.
  • Iran's IRGC said they downed a US Mq9 drone in the south of Iran, Press TV reported.
  • Iran fires several anti-ship missiles and drones towards US Navy warships in the Sea of Oman, Fars reported citing the Middle East Spectator.
  • A US official said the strike on Iran was a punitive action, not a proportional response, and that the operation will not end in the short term, CNN reported.

US Commentary

  • US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over "I think"; as far as I am concerned, it is a waste of time dealing with Iran. On the MoU, "think it is over". Adds, "I do not want to deal with Iran", they are a "bunch of liars".
  • US President Trump said (on Iran) he will allow US negotiators to continue to talk if they want. But, "I think this is a waste of time".
  • US President Trump said have had some great meetings; attacked very powerfully against Iran last night. Have wasted a lot of time with Iran. Iran does not know what it is doing. Iran shot rockets at the ships, which is why the US shot back. Iran is a "dirty" player, "are scum".
  • US President Trump approved the Iran strike plan and ordered it while in Turkey, a US official tells Axios' Ravid; the official said it is still unclear how long the strikes are going to continue.
  • US Secretary of Defence Hegseth has cancelled his visit to Israel, N12/Ynet report.

Others

  • Turkish President Erdogan said Europe must take more responsibility when it comes to NATO.
  • US President Trump said China is attempting to takeover the Panama Canal, will not let this happen. China has been treating the US right. Big fan of Chinese President Xi.
  • Ukrainian Armed Forces said Kyiv is under missile attack.
  • Israeli fighter jets carried out attacks in Barachit and Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon.
  • A Pakistani Boeing (BA) plane flying to Karachi has crashed, with sources stating the plane was mistakenly targeted by the US, IRIB reported.
  • Chevron’s (CVX) Yasa Polaris oil tanker, used for CPC shipments, was attacked by drones off Russia’s Black Sea coast, according to sources.
  • Russia’s Gazprom said Ukraine attacked facilities of gas exports to Turkey; supplies not affected.
  • Ukraine's Military said it struck two oil refineries, six tankers, bridges and the Borisoglebsk airfield; AIF-NK oil refinery in Nizhny Kamsk was also damaged.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 16:05

Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Shrinks For The First Time Since 2024 As Credit Card Rates Jump

Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Shrinks For The First Time Since 2024 As Credit Card Rates Jump

After two consecutive outsized jumps in consumer credit in the months of March and April, when gas prices surged and inflation resumed its track higher, lifting most prices as a result of the war in Iran, moments ago the Fed published its latest consumer credit (G.19) report for the month of May and it was a doozy: instead of the expected $17.5BN increase, in May total consumer credit unexpectedly shrank for the first time since November 2024.

The move was driven by a notable slowdown in nonrevolving credit, coupled with the biggest drop in revolving (credit card) debt since late 2024. 

Specifically, car and student loans (collectively non-revolving credit), rose by a modest $5.1 billion.

It was unclear what was behind the muted rise: recall that for the first quarter of 2026, student loans surged by $28 billion while auto loans posted a $2.4 billion decline, perhaps due to the very high interest rates on the debt (we will get an update for Q2 next month).

What is interesting, is that while auto loans have barely budged since late 2023, staying around 1.55 trillion for nearly three years, student loans have resumed their ascent, and after a modest decline in late 2023, student loans are once again at all time highs just shy of $1.9 trillion. 

At the same time, revolving credit, which mostly means credit card debt, unexpectedly sharnk by a notable $5.3 billion, following two months of $10BN+ increases.

It will be interesting to see if the paydown of credit card debt reflect in weaker retail sales for the month of June, which we will know when the report comes out in one week's time. 

Finally for those keeping tabs, after a modest decline in the previous two quarter, the average interest rate on credit card accounts assessed interest rose to 22.15%...

... a level last seen three years ago, when the Fed rates was almost 2% higher, which confirms our long-running observation that credit card rates go up but they never go down.

One final observation: after a period of about 6 years when the average amount financed by auto loans was around $25,000 (from 2008 to 2014), this amount has grown dramatically, and in Q1 2026 it hit a new record high of $42,500, the highest on record. Just in case there was confusion what is behind the relentless increase in car prices...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 15:44

Brown University Prof Bans Take-Home Exams After Mass-Cheating

Brown University Prof Bans Take-Home Exams After Mass-Cheating

Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

A Brown University professor says he will no longer allow students to take exams at home after he caught a large chunk of his class cheating on a test.

Economics Professor Roberto Serrano said he allowed students to take a midterm at home, and 40 students, nearly half the class, earned a perfect 100; among the 86 students in the class, the average overall class score was 96, the Chronicle of Higher Education reported July 6.

“I immediately knew that something was fishy. In previous editions of the course, the average grade in the midterm ranged from 65 to 80,” the Ivy League professor said.

He said further review seemed to confirm his suspicions, so he told the class:

“I’m not going to declare it void for now. I’m going to give the class a chance to prove me wrong. If the distribution of grades in the final exam looks roughly similar to the distribution of grades on the midterm, then I’ll count the midterm. If not, I will declare the midterm null and void. Also, the final will be in person.”

Serrano told the Chronicle that, unfortunately, his fears were confirmed.

“Between the midterm in March and the final in May, there was a consistent flow of students dropping the class — many of them had scored 100 on the midterm,” he said.

“Of the 59 students that took the final, 19 of them failed, so they also failed the course. Quite a few showed up, signed the exam, and turned it in blank. The average grade for this final was by far the lowest in the history of this course.”

Underscoring the cheating scandal, Serrano is blind, and has had to overcome numerous hurdles as a student and an academic.

Asked what he thinks of students taking the easy route, Serrano said they’re only selling themselves short.

“A culture of effort and hard work should be inherent to learning. I worry many of our students now have the wrong idea, believing that the answer to any question can be obtained with a couple of clicks of the mouse,” he told the Chronicle.

“I tell them that years from now, their grades won’t matter. What will matter is how much they learned and how much stayed in their brain.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 15:20

Coffee Lovers, Take Note: Lavazza Sounds Alarm, Suggest It May Be Time To Stock Up

Coffee Lovers, Take Note: Lavazza Sounds Alarm, Suggest It May Be Time To Stock Up

Following the largest daily surge in Arabica coffee futures since the Dot-Com bubble, the head of Italian coffee giant Lavazza Group warned that prices are unlikely to fall over the next two years.

Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of the Italian roaster, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "The market needs to have stability before it's time to think about a reduction of prices."

Lavazza explained that it will take two harvests and a massive rebuilding phase to replenish inventories and ease supply constraints, making lower prices unlikely over the next two years.

On Monday, Arabica futures in New York posted their biggest jump in 26 years, as worsening weather in Brazil and shrinking exchange-managed stockpiles fueled a rally. The violent move higher was not just weather-driven. A big short squeeze also materialized.

That sent 60-day volatility to the highest since 2014 levels - a period where weather-driven supply shock in Brazil dented global supplies. 

Making matters worse is the El Niño weather phenomenon that will start emerging in the months ahead and will create adverse weather conditions not just for top-grower Brazil but for other agri belts around the world.

"I think we are living in a long-lasting period of instability and uncertainty," Lavazza warned, adding, "Instability is the new constant."

Lavazza noted, "We need a couple of very strong crops from Brazil and Vietnam to rebuild stability. So maybe the first good crop is arriving," but we don't yet have evidence it will be as good as was expected at the end of 2025. 

He added: "The coffee market now shows fundamental changes compared to the past. We are living in an environment we don't know very well."

The takeaway for coffee lovers is simple: stock up.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 14:45

Are Flattening Curves And Style Rotations Deceptive Omens?

Are Flattening Curves And Style Rotations Deceptive Omens?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions. Similarly, some equity experts caution that periods of violent back-and-forth rotations among stock sectors and/or style factors are precursors to a market top.  Additionally, the combination of a bearish flattening trend and volatile equity rotations leads some analysts to forecast a recession, with concerning market repercussions.  

The argument we present in this article is that predicting economic or financial market activity is not as simple as following two indicators. Bear flattening trades, inverted yield curves, and frantic style (factor or sector) rotations are not definitive warnings of a market peak. They are extremely informative about where the economy, markets, and investor sentiment stand, but they do not tell investors whether or when the economic or market cycle will turn. Knowing where you are in a cycle is not the same as knowing when it ends. Confusing the two is a common mistake and can be a costly one for investors in late-cycle analysis.

Given that both indicators are currently flashing red, we explore how they can serve as important warnings of pending financial market and economic turbulence, but also as deceptive omens.

What The Yield Curve Tells Us

The shape of the yield curve, or the difference in yields between long and short-term US Treasury securities, indicates the market’s expected path for short rates plus a term premium. In other words, where does the market expect Fed Funds to be in the future, plus how much of a yield premium is the market paying investors to take on the inflation, economic, and oversupply risks of holding Treasury securities?

To help appreciate where the yield curve stands today and how it’s changed recently, we’ve included the graph below.

A notable feature of this long-term graph is that every time the yield curve flattened and inverted, i.e., the 2-year yield rose above the 10-year yield (the blue line fell below 0 on the y-axis), a recession (gray) followed. There is one exception. In 2022, the curve flattened, inverted, and then steepened, yet a recession has not materialized. 

Current Yield Curve Flattening

Recently, the yield curve has been flattening (declining) while bond yields have risen. In bond market parlance, that is called a bear market flattener (higher yields and a flattening yield curve). The table below shows that since late February, when the Iran conflict started, the 2-year note has risen by 76 basis points, the 10-year note by 46 basis points, and the 30-year bond by only 25 basis points. As a result, the 2/10-year yield curve flattened by 30 basis points and the 2/30-year curve by 51 basis points.

A bear flattening is the result of investors raising their collective expectations for higher short-term rates. This can be due to strong economic growth expectations and/or higher prices. At the same time, longer-maturity yields are less responsive, likely due to a subdued long-run growth forecast or a belief that higher inflation is temporary.

The flattening or inversion of the yield curve creates more restrictive financial conditions, acting as a brake on economic activity. An economy that warrants slowing is often one that is late in its economic cycle.

When the long-maturity yield falls below the short-maturity yield, i.e., it inverts, the usual interpretation is that investors expect future rate cuts because policy and/or rates are restrictive enough that the central bank will have to reverse course. However, that definition fails to consider the term premium, the compensation investors demand for holding longer-duration notes and bonds. A curve can flatten or even be inverted because the market expects rate cuts and/or because the term premium has compressed toward zero. Thus, it’s not definitive whether an inverted curve is due to expected rate cuts, well-anchored inflation, or forecasts of an economic downturn.

Equity Rotations

Equity leadership can be a tell of similar concerns, but through a different mechanism. Stocks are claims on future corporate cash flows, and those claims have duration. For instance, growth companies tend to have minimal cash flows or even run losses in the near term, but expectations are for large and growing earnings in the future. Thus, valuations for growth companies are based on distant-future cash flows and, accordingly, have a long duration.

Conversely, value companies generate cash flows that are nearer and more certain and are therefore considered to have shorter durations. When short-term interest rates rise and uncertainty about the future increases, the present value of distant cash flows is marked down far more than that of near cash flows.

For example, the 1-year present value of $100 at a 5% discount rate is $95.24, and at a 4% discount rate, it’s $96.15. The 1% change in rates impacts the present value by $0.91. Conversely, the 10-year present value of $100 at 5% and 4% is $61.39 and $67.56, respectively, resulting in a difference of $6.17 for the 1% change in rates. Accordingly, valuation multiples of growth companies tend to compress relative to those of value companies.

As we share below, in a hypothetical example, the value of the future cash flows of a value company with more upfront cash flows declines less with a 3% increase in the discount rate than that of a growth firm with more cash flows expected in the distant future.

A growth-to-value rotation is the equity market’s version of the yield curve flattening: both are duration-related repricings driven by the same change in the cost of money.

When Rotations Become Volatile

Typically, equity rotations in a late-cycle market become more volatile. In other words, no style or sector leads or lags for long stretches. These rapid rotations help clue us into a market regime that is becoming contested or changing.

Through the middle of an expansion, the macro picture is often clear with trend growth, accommodative or neutral monetary policy, and a steady discount rate. Because the regime is stable, leadership often remains in place for long periods as investor capital concentrates on the companies that benefit most from prevailing conditions. However, the market regime becomes challenged as changes in the broad economic and market environment are anticipated. Investors start asking questions such as:

  • Is monetary policy changing?

  • Is growth decelerating or reaccelerating?

  • Is inflation sticky or transitory?

As new economic and corporate data feed into the market, the discount rate becomes more sensitive. The market is forced to continually toy with its assumptions, and leadership ping-pongs as a result.

The volatility of style leadership is a proxy for regime uncertainty. The whipsaw action itself, not necessarily which types of stocks lead or lag, is the tell. A market that cannot decide between value and growth is a market that cannot decide what the discount rate will be, which is to say, a market that senses the regime is changing beneath it.

False Signals

There is a complication with what we have presented. The yield curve can be distorted by forces unrelated to the business cycle, such as shifts in the bond term premium, large-scale asset purchases (QE) or their reversal (QT), and significant government bond supply.  Equity rotations are at times heavily influenced by momentum chases and bouts of speculative behavior. Moreover, the rise of passive investment strategies tends to accentuate momentum trends.

When other factors influence the yield curve or the volatility of equity rotations, the “forecast” embedded in the curve and rotations becomes muddied and can falsely signal a market and economic top.

Condition And Timing Indicators

This brings us to the distinction that should govern how the signals are used. There is a difference between a condition indicator and a timing indicator. A condition indicator describes the economic and market landscape. A timing indicator tells you when the next event arrives. Flat curves and unstable leadership are good indicators of conditions, but can make for poor timing indicators.

This concept is like weather forecasting. A falling barometer tells you the atmosphere favors a change in the weather, likely a storm. It does not tell you what day or time the storm will arrive. In fact, despite the drop in barometric pressure, the storm may never form. Reading a barometer as a surefire countdown clock to a storm is an error, no matter how reliably storms and falling pressure correlate.

Summary

If you cannot extract a time frame for an economic and market peak from these signals, then what purpose do they serve?

The answer is that they help us prepare for a widening series of potential outcomes. Today, for instance, with the yield curve flattening and a series of violent rotations, we are maintaining stricter stop-loss levels, paying closer attention to technical analysis, focusing on our SimpleVisor rotation analysis tools, and assessing our risk more frequently.

The signals suggest the regime may be changing, and we should be prepared for that possibility. However, until that becomes more evident, we must take advantage of what the market has to offer. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 14:25

FOMC Minutes Show 'A Few' Fed Members Wanted To Hike In June, 'Majority' Fear Higher Inflation

FOMC Minutes Show 'A Few' Fed Members Wanted To Hike In June, 'Majority' Fear Higher Inflation

Tl;dr: The minutes underscored a more hawkish tone on inflation. UBS traders noted that most participants cited scenarios in which price pressures could remain elevated, including stronger AI-related demand, the ongoing Middle East conflict and tariffs. In those cases, nearly all of those officials said some additional policy tightening would likely be warranted. Fed staff raised their inflation outlook for 2026 and 2027 compared with the April forecast, reflecting the effects of the Middle East war and AI-driven investment, while trimming their GDP growth outlook slightly.

*  *  *

Today's FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for further insight into policymakers' appetite for additional rate hikes and the thinking behind the Committee's hawkish shift at last month's meeting. The minutes are an account of the June 17th meeting and therefore will not reflect subsequent developments, including the softer-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report or Chair Warsh's appearance at the ECB's Sintra Forum.

Since the last FOMC meeting (June 17th), the dollar has strengthened (on the hawkishness) and gold (and bitcoin) mirrored that with sizable declines. Stocks are flat, bond yields are higher (prices down), and oil remains lower, but accelerating in the last couple of days...

The market's expectations for Fed actions this year have surged back near the highs (up from around 20bps pre-Warsh to around 40bps today)...

And rather interestingly, the initial dramatic flattening of the yield curve on FOMC day has been entirely erased...

As Growth-related macro data has disappointed notably while Inflation-related macro data has remained sticky/high...

So with all that said (and with all eyes watching for confirmation of the hawkish bias), what does the FOMC want us to know about Warsh's first meeting in charge...

FOMC Minutes summary:

Participants generally saw upside risks to price stability as elevated, while downside risks to maximum employment goal had moderated a bit

Inflation

  • The majority of participants commented that most measures of medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remained at levels consistent with the Committee's 2 percent objective.

  • The majority of participants highlighted the possibility that, after several years of inflation above 2 percent, continued elevated inflation rates could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting decisions.

  • A few participants commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising the target range for the federal funds rate, but those participants indicated that they supported maintaining the current target range at this meeting.

  • Most participants remarked on scenarios in which inflationary pressures would dissipate and inflation would soon begin to return to 2 percent. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants noted that it would likely be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower the target range for the federal funds rate.

    • Most participants, however, also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs.

    • In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent.

  • Some participants observed that the sharp rise in input costs reported in business surveys raised concerns about the potential for higher energy and commodity costs to pass through more broadly to final goods prices.

  • Several participants noted, however, that firms in their Districts reported that they had been cautious about increasing prices, citing concerns that higher prices could reduce demand or their market shares

  • Several participants noted that the deceleration in housing services prices was likely to continue to be a source of disinflationary pressure.

The Fed appears to now be officially blaming AI for rise in core inflation: 

"Core goods price inflation had risen relative to a year earlier, which the staff judged as largely reflecting the effects of tariffs and AI-related price pressures"

...

Many participants noted that ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity..."

...

"Some participants remarked that productivity gains associated with AI adoption would eventually reduce production costs and increase aggregate supply, which should put downward pressure on inflation, though they noted this effect would likely take time to materialize"

...

"Initial public offering activity in the U.S. appeared set to accelerate this year, with the proceeds expected to help fund ongoing investments in AI infrastructure."

Growth

  • Most participants remarked that growth in economic activity that exceeded that of potential output, owing in part to strong AI business investment, could contribute to more persistent inflationary pressures.

  • With respect to household spending, most participants observed that stock market gains and federal income tax refunds sent earlier this year had provided support to consumer spending, particularly among higher-income households.

  • Most participants remarked that growth in economic activity that exceeded that of potential output, owing in part to strong AI business investment, could contribute to more persistent inflationary pressures.

  • Some participants remarked that productivity gains associated with AI adoption would eventually reduce production costs and increase aggregate supply, which should put downward pressure on inflation, though they noted this effect would likely take time to materialize.

Communication

  • A majority of participants remarked that they saw advantages in shortening the statement.

  • Some participants commented that they welcomed the opportunity to review the Committee's communications tools and practices.

  • Most participants emphasized that they preferred not to repeat the language in the previous postmeeting statement that had suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee's future interest rate decisions.

Policy

  • Several participants remarked that they did not see the current policy stance as restrictive, while a few other participants commented that they saw the current policy stance as slightly restrictive.

FX

  • There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System's account during the intermeeting period.

Read the full FOMC Minutes here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 14:05

Bezos' Blue Origin Seeks $10 Billion In First-Ever Outside Funding Round

Bezos' Blue Origin Seeks $10 Billion In First-Ever Outside Funding Round

Fresh off Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, it appears that, for the first time, Blue Origin is preparing to raise outside capital in a deal that would value Jeff Bezos' rocket company at about $130 billion.

Andrew Ross Sorkin, financial columnist for The New York Times and a co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box, wrote in a DealBook report, "I've got a scoop on Blue Origin closing in on a big fund-raising round, which is expected to value Jeff Bezos' spaceflight company at about $130 billion."

"It would be the first time that outside investors buy a piece of Blue Origin in its 25-year history," Sorkin said.

Blue Origin is seeking $10 billion in a new funding round, with Coatue Management expected to lead with a $4 billion commitment. Bezos is preparing to contribute $2 billion, while the remaining $4 billion is expected to come from outside investors.

The fundraising would give Blue Origin a $130 billion valuation as it ramps up spending and tries to narrow the gap with SpaceX - yet that gap remains massive in terms of launch capacity.

In recent days, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said investigators have found that a "potential engine issue" was the cause of the catastrophic Blue Origin New Glenn rocket explosion that damaged part of a launch pad at Cape Canaveral on May 28.

Blue Origin has relied heavily on Bezos' personal wealth for years, including proceeds from Amazon stock sales. Bringing in outside money will accelerate spending and allow for more competition in America's space race, which the Trump administration has said is necessary to create a robust space industry.

Musk's SpaceX went public last month and raised $85 billion. SpaceX is now valued at nearly $2 trillion, despite a pullback in shares, currently trading around $150 in the premarket session.

A flurry of Wall Street analysts are turning incredibly bullish on SpaceX, with 12-month price targets ranging from Raymond James' $800 to Arete Research's $401 and Morgan Stanley's $300. That's because SpaceX has a launch moat that will be maintained for years - its launch capacity surpasses not just Bezos' rocket company, but entire nation states such as China and Russia combined. Read the report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:45

The Great Migration: What The Dow-To-Gold Ratio Is Telling Us

The Great Migration: What The Dow-To-Gold Ratio Is Telling Us

Authored by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com,

It takes about 13 ounces of gold to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow-to-gold ratio prices the entire American stock market. And it does it in the one currency no central bank can print. Over the past century, it tells the same story.

It measures when the US stock market is overvalued… when it’s promising too much.

And there are a lot of promises that don’t look as good as they should these days.

A bond pays only if the issuer stays solvent.

A dollar holds its value only if the people who print it show restraint.

Yet, tangible wealth answers to no one. An ounce of gold is worth an ounce of gold whether a single counterparty keeps their word, which is what makes gold an honest denominator in the Dow-to-Gold ratio.

The ratio goes up, and it comes down. During the great manias of the twentieth century, paper looked invincible: 18 ounces to buy the Dow in 1929, 28 in 1966, 41 at the top of the dot-com boom in 2000. Then the tide went out, bubbles popped and the markets turned to commodities over equities.

As the ratio goes down, eventually it hits a bottom.

The same Dow cost almost nothing in metal, barely 2 ounces in 1932 and close to a single ounce in 1980. So, greed priced the top. Fear, and sound money, priced the bottom.

A century in one line:

Every peak in paper has been repriced in gold.

Each top marked a moment the market trusted claims more than the things behind them, and each was followed by a long migration back toward metal that ran for years, not months.

Here is where we correct the record. The move off the 2000 top has been anything but tidy. The ratio fell to roughly 6 by 2011, then the long everything-rally, cheap money layered on cheap money, hauled it back above 19 by 2021. The 2026 equity melt-up has lifted it again, to about 13, even with gold sitting near record highs.

The same story, up close:

However, the long-term trend since 2000 points down. The path has been a bit of a switchback. Anyone waiting for a clean glide toward gold got a decade of reversals instead, which is why we distrust anyone selling a date for gold.

Gold’s historic floor sits between 1 and 2 ounces. From 13, most of that move is still ahead, whenever the switchback resolves. In my opinion, this is not the time to wager a standard 60/40 portfolio as a wager that the denominator stays at or around 13. Stocks, and bonds are unlikely promise-keepers, and believing the dollar behind them holds is just as risky. The denominator is not sitting still. Every deficit the Treasury runs and every dollar the Fed prints wears down the promises the old 60/40 portfolio depends on. For most of the past forty years, it paid anyway. This time it will not.

“All roads, in other words, lead to trouble of some sort, which makes year-ahead asset allocation pretty easy: you just own everything that protects you regardless of which road gets traveled.”

~ John Rubino, The Money Bubble

After twenty-five years, the score still reads the same. Paper is expensive, and gold is patient.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:25

Stellar 10Y Auction Stops Through, With 3rd Highest Foreign Demand On Record

Stellar 10Y Auction Stops Through, With 3rd Highest Foreign Demand On Record

Following yesterday's stellar 3Y auction, moments ago - with yields surging to the highest level since mid-May - the Treasury completed the sale of $39BN in a 9 Year 10 Month reopening of 10Y cusip QQ7, in what was another spectacular auction.

The note sale, which priced just after 1pm ET, stopped at a high yield of 4.580%, up from last month's 4.538%, and stopped through the When Issued 4.586% by 0.6bps, the biggest stop through since Sept '25.

The bid to cover rose to 2.593 from 2.565, which was the highest BtC also since last September, and obviously well above the six-auction average of 2.46.

The internals were also some of the best on record: foreign buyers (i.e., indirects) were awarded 81.5% of the auction, up from 78.21% in June and the 3rd highest on record.

And with Directs sliding to 10.73%, the lowest since April 25, Dealers were left holding just 7.8%, down from 9.5% in June and the lowest since January.

Overall, this was an extremely strong auction, perhaps the best 10Y of 2026, and with yields surging today, it shows that not only retail traders, but bond investors are also willing to buy the dips. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:24

Russia Bans Diesel Exports, Assuring Even Higher Prices

Russia Bans Diesel Exports, Assuring Even Higher Prices

As was widely speculated in recent days, Russia banned exports of diesel in order to avoid domestic shortages after a flurry of attacks by Ukrainian drones on the nation’s refineries.

“Today we introduced ban on exports of diesel,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the government’s meeting with President Vladimir Putin.

The decision will further squeeze global fuel markets, which are already under pressure due to the supply disruption caused by the Iran war. Russia's decision means that the recent surge in the diesel margins to record highs, which have completely disconnected with oil prices, are set to rise even more. 

Last year, Russia accounted for about 11% of global supplies of diesel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa.

The logical corollary is what the DOE reported earlier today, namely that US product exports - which include diesel and other refined products - surged to a record high.

Exports of the fuel were previously banned only for traders and other sellers in Russia that don’t make their own fuel.

The diesel ban comes on top of existing restrictions on most shipments of gasoline and jet fuel. Russia has been struggling to ensure domestic oil-product supplies and to contain prices at the pump after drone attacks damaged several refineries. 

Ukraine’s intensified strikes pushed Russia’s crude-processing rates to multi-year lows. Many regions have been forced to impose some degree of fuel rationing because of the disruptions. 

Even before the ban, Russia’s diesel and gasoil exports were dropping significantly. During the first three weeks of June, its exports of diesel and gasoil averaged about 490,000 barrels a day, only slightly more than half of what the nation shipped to foreign markets in 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from Vortexa.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 13:10

George Soros Angers Hamptons Residents After Massive Land Purchase

George Soros Angers Hamptons Residents After Massive Land Purchase

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

George Soros has long used his billions to influence politics, but now his family appears to be using that wealth to reshape its own backyard through a massive land grab in the Hamptons.

The Soros family has purchased 18 plots of land on Shelter Island, a Hamptons community, angering residents who are concerned that the billionaire’s presence in the area will trigger rising costs.

Soros’s shopping spree, reported by the New York Post on July 2, makes him and his sons, Alex and Gregory Soros, the largest private landowners on the approximately 8,000-acre island.

According to the Post, the massive purchases are not the first time the Soros family has angered residents. In 2020, Gregory snatched a 22-acre property on a quiet street.

However, the quiet atmosphere turned into chaos when construction trucks began arriving to build one of the island’s largest swimming pools.

Local plumbers and maids are required to sign non-disclosure agreements before being allowed to work on the Soroses’ properties, residents alleged.

Surveillance cameras have reportedly been installed on local streets, raising privacy concerns among residents of the island, which is only accessible by boat.

At one point, the Soros family reportedly purchased multiple homes along a single road and sought approval from local officials to install a fence to block access from other residents.

However, Shelter Island resident Steve Lenox is concerned that Soros will soon get his way.

“We can’t keep up with the lawyers that these millionaires have and they seem to build whatever they want,” Lenox told the Shelter Island Town Board during a meeting on June 29, according to the Post.

“That’s what’s ruining the island.”

Another resident, Mike Gaynor, echoed those concerns during the meeting, pointing to other communities that became unaffordable at the arrival of millionaires.

According to the Post, residents first noticed the Soros family’s presence on the island when the family installed a deer fence around one of its properties, allegedly in violation of local zoning rules.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 12:55

FOMC Minutes Preview: Scrutiny For Hawkish Bias

FOMC Minutes Preview: Scrutiny For Hawkish Bias

Today's FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for further insight into policymakers' appetite for additional rate hikes and the thinking behind the Committee's hawkish shift at last month's meeting. The minutes are an account of the June 17th meeting and therefore will not reflect subsequent developments, including the softer-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report or Chair Warsh's appearance at the ECB's Sintra Forum.

Nonetheless, as Newsquawk writes in its FOMC Minutes preview, the June meeting, Warsh's first as Fed Chair, marked a significant shift under his leadership. The Committee unanimously overhauled the policy statement, removing all forward guidance and placing greater emphasis on its commitment to price stability. While the statement changes were unanimous among voting members, it will be interesting to see whether non voting participants also supported the removal of forward guidance and the stronger inflation-focused language.

On forward guidance, Waller spoke about the tool on July 6th - after the FOMC. He noted that it can speed the impact of monetary policy, calling it a valuable tool. However, it can be a hindrance if it is too strong or rigid, and also problematic when policy makers expect different economic outcomes all with a significant probability of occurring, adding in some cases, it is best not to use it at all. We will be looking to see the views among the whole FOMC around the use of forward guidance.

Anecdotally, Rabobank wrote that "Fed's Waller has joined new Chair Warsh in wanting to shake up Fed communications to do so less: ahead of the FOMC minutes today, one wonders if they could just be a truncated, "We talked about stuff," leaving analysts to... well, analyze, rather than being spoon-fed."

Traders will also be watching for any discussion surrounding the broader policy reviews announced by Warsh. During the FOMC press conference, he revealed plans to establish five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and the Fed's inflation framework. While the reviews are not expected to conclude until year-end, the minutes may provide an early indication of how policymakers view these topics, although it may still be too early for any meaningful discussion. As this is the first set of minutes under Chair Warsh, there is also some scope for changes to the presentation or structure of the document, given the broader changes already made to the FOMC statement.

Meeting Recap

  • Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chair delivered a clear hawkish shift. While the Committee left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as widely expected, the policy statement was significantly revised, removing all forward guidance and reaffirming the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability.

  • The statement reiterated that inflation remains elevated but updated its description to reference supply shocks affecting specific sectors, including energy. The Committee also upgraded its assessment of the labour market, noting that job gains were keeping pace with workforce growth rather than remaining subdued. Economic activity continued to be described as expanding at a solid pace despite uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, while policymakers added new language highlighting strong productivity growth and capital investment.

  • Regarding the Summary of Economic Projections, inflation forecasts were revised higher, GDP growth projections for 2026 were trimmed modestly, and the unemployment rate was revised lower. Warsh did not submit his own forecasts due to his distaste for forward guidance, but he made it clear he is focused on price stability.

  • The dot plot shifted materially, representing a hawkish shift. The median 2026 projection rose to 3.8% from 3.4%, implying one 25bp rate hike compared with March's median projection for one rate cut. The 2027 median increased to 3.6% from 3.1%, while the 2028 projection rose to 3.4% from 3.1%. The distribution of projections was equally notable: nine participants now expect at least one rate hike this year (one sees three hikes, five see two hikes and three see one hike), compared with none in March. Meanwhile, eight participants now expect rates to remain unchanged through year-end (previously seven), while only one still projects a rate cut (previously seven).

  • Following the meeting, analysts broadly concluded that the statement, economic projections and Warsh's press conference reinforced the view that policymakers are placing greater emphasis on inflation risks than labour market concerns.

  • Since then, Warsh has reiterated many of those themes during his appearance at the ECB's Sintra Forum. He again rejected the use of forward guidance, stressed that interest rates should remain the Fed's primary policy tool and reaffirmed the Committee's commitment to price stability. He acknowledged that inflation expectations had eased during his first month as Chair but maintained that inflation running above the Fed's 2% target remains unacceptable.

  • On the balance sheet, he again avoided providing specific guidance, reiterating only that he favors a smaller balance sheet and that the newly established review committees will inform future discussions.

  • Although subsequent data will not feature in these minutes, it is worth adding that the softer June payrolls report has led markets to pare some of the hawkish repricing seen after the June meeting. Money markets now fully price one 25bp rate hike by December rather than October, meaning traders will be assessing the minutes against a policy outlook that has evolved modestly since the meeting took place.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 12:25

Southern Poverty Law Center Pleads Not Guilty To Federal Fraud Charges

Southern Poverty Law Center Pleads Not Guilty To Federal Fraud Charges

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) on July 7 entered not guilty pleas again to 11 criminal counts alleging it defrauded donors by sending millions of dollars to informants who infiltrated white supremacist and so-called hate groups that it publicly opposed.

The fresh arraignment of the nonprofit organization under a new superseding indictment took place via videoconference before Montgomery, Alabama-based U.S. Magistrate Judge Kelly F. Pate.

The charges, announced on April 21 by FBI Director Kash Patel and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, sparked political backlash amid growing questions about the group, which the federal government had previously used to track extremist groups with its “Hate Map” and other online resources.

The original indictment by a federal grand jury charged the SPLC with wire fraud, making false statements to a federally insured bank, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

The group was alleged to have surreptitiously transferred more than $3 million in donated funds to leaders and organizers of racist groups, including the Ku Klux Klan, the Aryan Nation, and the National Alliance, between 2014 and 2023.

The government said the SPLC sent donations to bank accounts of fake entities that had names such as “Rare Books Warehouse” and “Tech Writers Group.” The accounts were then used to funnel money to alleged informants in the racist groups that it claimed to strongly oppose.

One of the informants allegedly helped to organize the “Unite the Right” protest in 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia, that turned deadly.

SPLC interim president and CEO Bryan Fair appeared in person on May 7 to plead not guilty to the same charges on behalf of the group.

On July 7, an attorney for the organization appeared by videoconference to enter 11 not guilty pleas to the superseding indictment issued last month that added more details and specifics. The new charging document did not add new charges.

The original indictment alleged $3 million in donor funds was funneled to individuals associated with extremist groups, but the new indictment increases the figure to $4.1 million.

The new indictment provides additional details such as a claim that funds were used by recipients for buying materials for cross burnings and Ku Klux Klan robes and hoods.

The SPLC has filed a motion to dismiss the indictment for vindictive prosecution. The group claims it is being targeted by the Trump administration for political reasons. It is unclear when the court will rule on the motion.

The SPLC is known for its successful fundraising campaigns. According to its most recent publicly available IRS filing, it had gross receipts in tax year 2023 of $339.3 million and assets of $822.2 million.

The FBI severed its relationship with the SPLC in October 2025 after conservatives criticized the group for including slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s organization on its list of hate groups. The FBI had previously used SPLC intelligence on domestic extremist groups.

Patel said the organization has turned into a “partisan smear machine” instead of a civil rights advocate.

“Their so-called ‘hate map’ has been used to defame mainstream Americans and even inspired violence,” he said at the time, without elaborating.

The SPLC’s Hate Map lists almost 1,400 groups, including Kirk’s Turning Point USA, categorizing it as an “antigovernment” group.

Critics have long said the Montgomery-based SPLC unfairly labels conservatives as racist as a matter of policy, treats opposition to illegal or legal immigration, open borders, and multiculturalism as hate, and political expression of those views as hate speech.

The Alliance Defending Freedom, a legal organization that defends religious freedom and free speech, says the SPLC “did good work decades ago fighting segregation in the South,” but has since it has become a “far-left activist organization that attacks anyone who disagrees with its narrow political agenda.” Targets have included conservative, libertarian, anti-tax, immigration reductionist, and other groups.

In a statement issued in May, the SPLC called the charges against them “provably wrong” and “based on inaccurate facts and a misapplication of law.” The nonprofit said its informant program has been successful at preventing threats and attacks, stopping criminal activity, and gathering information used to dismantle hate groups.

“There is no question that the information the SPLC shared with law enforcement saved lives,” the statement reads.

It also stated that it was no stranger to legal threats and would continue its mission “no matter what.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the SPLC for comment. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 12:05

63 Million Barrels Of Iranian Oil Stuck At Sea After US Pulls Iran Sanction Waiver

63 Million Barrels Of Iranian Oil Stuck At Sea After US Pulls Iran Sanction Waiver

Tehran's oil export troubled just got worse. 

One week after we reported that Iran was already struggling to sell its crude to buyers in Asia (including China, which appears to now prefer UAE exports instead), overnight the US rescinded the sanctions waiver that allowed Tehran to sell its oil without penalties, making sales of Iranian crude to international buyers even more challenging. 

The Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday prompted immediate US reaction with the USmilitary striking multiple targets in Iran and the Treasury canceling the waiver on Iran’s oil sales that was supposed to be in place until August 21.

Iran’s oil sales could be constrained again even before they resume, OilPrice reports. Since the memorandum of understanding was signed in mid-June, Iran has rushed to load cargoes from its key export sites at Kharg Island, and move its tankers out of the Gulf as soon as possible, after weeks of virtually no exports because of the U.S. blockade that began in mid-April.

The surge in Iranian shipments out of the Gulf and into waters near the Malacca and Singapore Straits gave Iran a lifeline to boost its exports that had suffered from the U.S. blockade.

China has remained Iran’s key customer as other buyers are reluctant to commit to purchases. But in recent weeks, we learned that even Chinese purchases of Iran oil have slowed dramatically, and now that the US has ended the waiver and sanctions are in place again, buyers in India that were considering potential purchases have likely backed out. 

Additionally, one could go so far as to argue Iranian oil in tankers is once again subject to US seizure.

Iran is thus left with millions of barrels of crude oil on tankers moving or idling in a large area from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca. Most of the laden tankers do not broadcast destination or broadcast they are for orders, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Currently, as many as 63 million barrels of Iranian oil are either in transit or idling in tankers, per Bloomberg’s estimates based on data from Vortexa, which also notes that oil on floating storage in the Gulf has more than doubled in the past week to over 41 million barrels.

“Iran managed to ship out 60 million barrels of crude oil since the US Navy blockade paused in mid-June 2026,” TankerTrackers.com said late on Tuesday, after the U.S.-Iran tensions escalated again.

“If the blockade were to resume now due to escalating tensions, Iran would be stuck with ~50 million barrels of crude oil and refined products.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 11:45

Trump Greenlights Patriot Missile Production In Ukraine, Praises Deep Strikes Into Russia

Trump Greenlights Patriot Missile Production In Ukraine, Praises Deep Strikes Into Russia

President Trump just prior to entering the Oval Office vowed to quickly achieve peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is currently in its fifth year. The MAGA base got energized by Trump's earlier repeat statements that he'd bring peace to major global flashpoints and hotspots, but instead of anti-interventionism he started a new war of choice in the Middle East, and is now tripling down on military support to Kiev.

While in Turkey for the annual NATO summit, President Trump commented on the issue of Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory on its oil refineries and defense manufacturing facilities, which has unleashed a fuel crisis in various parts of Russia and especially Crimea.

"It's an escalation but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end [of the war]," the US President told the NATO summit.

via AFP

After heaping lavish praise on Ukraine forces for supposedly turning the tide of battle and momentum in Kiev's favor, Trump also said, "We have a lot of pressure on President Putin. I don’t think he likes what’s going on." He added: "But I talked to President Putin a lot. He wants to end the war."

The Wall Street Journal comments in the wake of Trump's remarks:

President Trump said he supported Ukraine striking targets deep inside Russian territory, calling it an escalation that could help end the war.

...In a marked contrast to past meetings between the two leaders, Trump opened his press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky by offering warm words and fresh promises of military cooperation with Ukraine, providing a major boon for Kyiv and its supporters in Europe. Trump praised Ukraine’s bravery, signaled he would consider granting Kyiv a license to produce U.S. Patriot missile interceptors and said he would consider travel to Kyiv at the right time in peace talks.

On this, Trump said Washington would give Ukraine "the right to make Patriots" - after Zelensky has for at least six months been relentless in requesting this, framing it as urgent and for the protection of cities and civilians.

"We’ll show them how to do it," Trump stated, describing the system as "very complex" - though he also said the Ukrainians would "figure out the complexity quickly."

Trump continued by saying that American defense firms are already building "four plants" and claimed that "all of our companies will be able to do this in two to three months."

However, there have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there's said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.

It's hard to know of this is just more bluster - and what will actually materialize as far as this promises - but Moscow will only see this as another US step up the escalation ladder. Earlier this week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said the Ukraine conflict is no longer just a "special military operation" but a real war, because Kiev is backed by Berlin, Paris, The Hague, Oslo, and Washington - complete with Western weapons, satellites, and infrastructure helping direct strikes.

"In these conditions, we must be clear-eyed: the Kiev regime is capable of anything," Peskov said in an interview.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 11:05

WTI Extends Gains As Crude Exports Slide, SPR Drain Continues, 'Tank Bottoms' Hit

WTI Extends Gains As Crude Exports Slide, SPR Drain Continues, 'Tank Bottoms' Hit

Oil prices spiked overnight to three-week-highs after President Trump said that he thought the Iran cease-fire was “over” amid a volatile 24 hours in the Persian Gulf region.

The Trump admin launched a series of strikes on Iran and revoked a waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil in retaliation for attacks on tankers this week in the Strait of Hormuz.

Daniela Hathorn, an analyst at Capital.com, a broker, said that investors had viewed the cease-fire as “fragile but ultimately durable,” until Mr. Trump’s comments called that into question.

“Any suggestion that negotiations have collapsed raises the risk of renewed supply interruptions or tighter sanctions,” Ms. Hathorn said in a statement.

Overnight saw across the board inventory draws reported by API (but admittedly the draws were on the smaller side).

API

  • Crude -399k

  • Cushing -100k

  • Gasoline -2.92mm

  • Distillates -1.80mm

DOE

  • Crude +2.998mm (-1.4mm exp) - biggest build since April 3rd

  • Cushing -52k

  • Gasoline -1.904mm

  • Distillates -4.98mm - biggest draw since Jan 26th

While the decline in crude stocks was expected to slow, the 3mm barrel build is entirely unexpected. Product stocks are seeing big draws with distillates dominating the flows (amid record crack spreads)...

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks at the critical Cushing hub are stuck at 'tank bottoms'...

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to see sizable draws...

...drooping the total SPR level to fresh post-1983 lows...

US crude production pushed back up to record highs...

US crude exports, which have been running hot since April, have tumbled back to 'normal' levels...

But product exports exploded to a new record high...

WTI front-month futures were hovering around three-week highs around $74.50 ahead of the official data (back above its 50DMA), and extending gains after...

While the physical crude market remains reasonably supplied, refined products continue to tighten.

Crack spreads remain elevated (potentially providing more crude demand pull from refiners), and ongoing strikes on Russian refining infrastructure are keeping product markets tight.

And that's why pump prices are not falling in line with crude...

...as President Trump demands!!

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 10:39

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