Heart Attack Risk Halved In Survivors Taking Tailored Vitamin D Doses, Researchers Say

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Researchers found that adult heart attack survivors who took specific vitamin D doses reduced their risk of developing another heart attack by more than half, compared with people who did not take the vitamin D dose.

A man sits in a hospital waiting room in Irvine, Calif., on July 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Research done by Utah-based Intermountain Health found that there was a 52 percent lower risk of suffering another heart attack in people who already survived one and who received “personalized dosing of vitamin D supplements” to reach vitamin D levels of 40 nanograms per milliliter for around four years, said a news release from the American Heart Association (AHA).

That was compared to those who did not receive management of their vitamin D levels, the AHA said.

Over 85 percent of the people who enrolled in the study had vitamin D levels below that threshold, while nearly 52 percent in the study group had to take more than 5,000 international units (IU) of vitamin D per day to reach the blood target levels, the Nov. 9 release said. The 5,000 IU dose is around six times the 800 IU that is recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) per day.

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Yes, we sell Vitamin D which we'd be grateful if you'd try - though whether or not you buy from us, please absorb the information in this article.

*  *  *

“Previous clinical trial research on vitamin D tested the potential impact of the same vitamin D dose for all participants without checking their blood levels first,” Heidi T. May of Intermountain Health said in an AHA statement.

The researchers also checked the study participants’ vitamin D levels when they started the study, followed up, adjusting the dose as needed to reach a range of between 40 and 80 nanograms per milliliter, the statement said.

The authors of the paper suggested that their findings could allow health care providers to focus more on blood testing for people who had experienced heart attacks and to provide tailored doses for them.

While the AHA did not say what form of vitamin D was administered in the study, a separate news release issued by Intermountain Health said that the researchers used vitamin D3, the most common form used in dietary supplements.

In the statement, May said the researchers “observed no adverse outcomes when giving patients higher doses of vitamin D3 supplementation, and to significantly reduce the risk of another heart attack, which are exciting results.”

The study was presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2025 in New Orleans earlier this month. It enrolled 630 adults with acute coronary syndrome who were treated at the Intermountain Medical Center in Salt Lake City from April 2017 to May 2023 and who had an average follow-up of 4.2 years for their condition.

The AHA said that around 107 major cardiac events, such as a heart attack, stroke, heart failure that required hospitalization, or death, occurred in the study period.

The paper released this month adds to a growing body of research around vitamin D supplementation and heart disease. Last year, a study found that taking vitamin D supplements doesn’t reduce the risk of cardiac arrest in older adults, while one published in the British Medical Journal showed there was an association between the supplements and major cardiac events among people over the age of 60.

Aside from supplements, foods that are considered rich in vitamin D include egg yolks, fatty fish, fish liver oil, and cheese, while some foods like cereal, orange juice, milk, and others are fortified with the vitamin. Vitamin D is also activated in the body when the skin is exposed to sunlight.

May added that her organization is encouraging those who have heart disease to speak to health care providers about targeted vitamin D dosing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:25

Watchdog: Chicago Public Schools Blew Millions On Trips, Spas, And Overseas Travel

A new investigation by Chicago Public Schools Inspector General Philip Wagenknecht shows overnight and travel spending in the district surged from about $300,000 in 2021 to nearly $8 million by 2024, according to WTTW.

His report says some staff exploited the district’s “lax, vague, inadequate and unenforced” rules, leading to “exorbitant” post-pandemic travel funded by taxpayers.

The OIG found CPS spent roughly $14.5 million on travel in 2023 and 2024, much of it for out-of-town conferences or overnight student trips.

WTTW writes that the probe began after an elementary school paid more than $20,000 for a staff trip to Egypt without approval; CPS canceled that trip and two others. Investigators later identified more than $142,000 spent by eight schools on overseas travel — including visits to Egypt, Finland, Estonia and South Africa — that featured “tourist activities of debatable value” such as camel rides, a game park visit and hot air balloon rides.

The report also highlighted Las Vegas conferences where more than 600 employees spent over $1.5 million between 2022 and 2024. One principal booked an unapproved $400-a-night suite for himself and his wife.

According to the report, “Nearly 90% of CPS attendees stayed in hotel rooms that exceeded CPS spending limits, and at least two dozen took round-trip Chicago-Las Vegas flights costing more than $1,000,” noting that when the same conference was held in Chicago, attendance was minimal.

The OIG urged CPS to keep seminars local, stating, “Rather than spend millions on professional development at resort spas, luxury hotels and overseas destinations, CPS should keep its educational seminars as close to home as possible.”

CPS has since restricted nearly all employee travel (as of Oct. 29) and created a Travel Review Committee. A spokesperson said the district takes the findings seriously, adding, “Chicago Public Schools remains unwavering in its commitment to fiscal responsibility and the success of our students,” and that CPS is committed “to protect our investments and resources.” The district said new financial systems should strengthen oversight.

Reiterating its mission, CPS stated, “The core mission of CPS is clear: to provide every student with a high-quality, rigorous, inclusive, and enriching education… and to reduce expenditures in a sustainable way.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:00

Trump Names Saudi Arabia A 'Major Non-NATO Ally' During MbS Candlelight Dinner Attended By Tech Moguls 

Aside from a couple of hiccups involving exchanges with the press, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MbS) visit to the White House went well, after he came bearing massive gifts, especially a pledge for a whopping $1 trillion in US investment.

During the Tuesday night candlelight dinner in his honor, which was attended by Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Cristiano Ronaldo, the head of FIFA Gianni Infantino - and many other tech moguls and notable figures - President Trump took the opportunity to proclaim for the first time Saudi Arabia as a "major non-NATO ally" (MNNA).

Via Reuters

This was based on the signing of a new security pact with MbS, called the US-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement (SDA), during the earlier Oval Office visit.

"At tonight’s dinner, I’m happy to share that we are elevating our military partnership by officially naming Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally," Trump said.

This newly designated status will give the kingdom preferential access to US military hardware, which as Trump also unveiled will include sales of F-35 fighter jets and 300 US-manufactured tanks.

To some degree the US-Saudi oil for weapons relationship has been cemented institutionally going all the way back to the 1970s, but talk of nuclear energy - and even the US providing a potential nuclear nuclear security umbrella - represents an escalation in strategic closeness and relations.

As part of this, the White House is further describing this as the "legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar nuclear energy partnership."

But what else does the United States (and Israel) get out of this? MbS appears to now be 'cooperating' on a years-long effort for normalization of ties with Israel, after diplomacy was stalled for two years amid the Gaza War.

The crown prince told reporters, "We want to join the Abraham Accords, but we also need a clear pathway to a two-state solution."

"We had a constructive discussion with the president, and we’re going to work together to create the right conditions as soon as possible," he added.

 As expected, all is well again despite years of Saudi Arabia being under a limited (and in reality somewhat mild) human rights spotlight:

The red carpet welcome for Prince Mohammed is an extraordinary moment in diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. It is his first visit to the United States since the 2018 killing of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which U.S. intelligence determined the prince ordered. Prince Mohammed has denied involvement.

After Mr. Khashoggi’s murder, some Western business executives and government officials backed out of Saudi Arabia’s global investment conference, including leaders of major American financial institutions. But by the following year, top deal makers were back at the event in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.

Via Reuters

But apparently there's nothing that Saudi petro-billions (or now Trillion) can't fix - it covers a multitude of sins, and elites had already been flocking back to doing business with Riyadh over the last years.

Families of the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks aren't happy either, given the mounting evidence of Saudi Arabia's role in that as well. But America has a short memory and attention-span, apparently. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:40

Ackman Floats "Immediately Actionable" Blueprint To Free Fannie And Freddie

Bill Ackman thinks he knows what to do to finally resolve the 16-year limbo trapping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the mortgage-finance pillars that remain under federal control over a decade after the financial crisis.

In a Tuesday presentation on X, the billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital Management outlined a three-step proposal he says would meet the Trump administration's policy goals, while restoring the companies to private-market discipline. The plan comes amid the White House's struggle to ease housing costs - which included an absurd idea to roll out 50-year mortgages. 

The two government-sponsored entities (GSEs) underpin roughly half of America's $12 trillion mortgage market. They don't lend directly - rather, they purchase mortgages from banks and lenders, package them into securities and guarantee investors against losses. This system helps keep credit flowing through economic cycles. 

Pershing is the largest common shareholder in the two companies with over 210 million total shares. 

Ackman has long argued that the government's post-crisis control of the two companies which was formalized in a 2008 conservatorship was intended to be temporary, but has dragged on for years beyond its stated purpose. 

He proposes the following as an "immediately actionable" roadmap for the Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the GSEs. 

Step one: Acknowledge the bailout is repaid.

Fannie and Freddie received $187 billion in Treasury support during the crisis. Ackman noted the GSEs have since sent “hundreds of billions” in profits to the federal government through quarterly “net worth sweeps,” far exceeding the original rescue. He urged Treasury and FHFA to formally declare the obligation satisfied—a move that would mark a symbolic break from the financial-crisis era.

Step two: Make taxpayers official owners.

As part of the 2008 rescue, Treasury received warrants to buy up to 79.9% of each company’s common stock at a nominal price. Exercising those warrants, Ackman said, would convert taxpayers’ implicit economic stake into a formal controlling interest—an unusual structure that would leave the U.S. government the majority owner of two publicly traded financial institutions.

Step three: Return the GSEs to the stock market.

Fannie and Freddie were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange after entering conservatorship. Ackman said the companies now meet listing requirements and that relisting would restore liquidity for investors, broaden ownership, and help recapitalize the firms. He argued that with taxpayer ownership approaching 80%, the resulting equity value could exceed $300 billion.

The proposal intersects with a broader debate over the future of U.S. housing finance - a politically delicate realm that has eluded reform under multiple administrations. Supporters of privatization say the GSEs should operate with market discipline and adequate capital so taxpayers are insulated from future downturns. Critics warn that premature release or inadequate safeguards could encourage the kind of risk-taking that contributed to the 2008 collapse.

https://t.co/fGD58qrBp8

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) November 18, 2025

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:20

Venezuela's Maduro Seeks 'Face-to-Face Talks' With Trump Officials 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro made clear early this week that he'd be willing to hold "face-to-face" talks with US officials and warned President Trump against starting a war with his country.

"In the United States, whoever wants to talk with Venezuela will talk, face to face, without any problem," Maduro said on his weekly TV program, comments that came after Trump suggested that his administration "may" be holding talks with the Venezuelan government.

Via CBS

But Trump also told reporters on Monday that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops into Venezuela, and the major US military buildup in the Caribbean continues. Maduro said that if Trump ordered military strikes on Venezuela, it would be the "biggest mistake of his life."

Maduro suggested that political factions within the US are trying to hurt Trump before the 2026 congressional elections by pressuring him on the Jeffrey Epstein scandal and pushing him to go to war with Venezuela. "They want President Trump to attack Venezuela militarily, which would be the end of his political leadership and his name," the Venezuelan leader said, according to the Miami Herald.

Maduro has previously focused his criticism on Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been leading the push toward war with Venezuela.

"Mr. President Donald Trump, you have to be careful because Marco Rubio wants your hands stained with blood, with South American blood, Caribbean blood, Venezuelan blood," Maduro told reporters when the US began its bombing campaign against alleged drug boats in the region.

Following the first US strikes on boats in the region, Maduro sent a letter to Trump urging for diplomacy and stating his readiness to talk with Trump’s special envoy, Ric Grennel, who met directly with the Venezuelan leader back in January.

Despite the US push toward war, Venezuela has still been cooperating on deportation flights from the US. Between March and mid-October, the US conducted 40 removal flights to Caracas, deporting about 8,000 Venezuelan nationals.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:00

"GPUs Are Sold Out": Nvidia Soars After Blowing Away Results, Projections

In our preview of NVDA's Q3 results, we said that "it's not a question whether the company beats - they always do - but whether the "blowout" and the "smash" will be big enough to impress a market that has already priced in perfection, and beyond, for the GPU maker."

The market was impressed.

Here is what NVDA just reported for Q3: 

• Adjusted EPS $1.30, beating estimates of $1.24
• Revenue $57.01 billion, up +62% y/y, beating estimate $55.19 billion, and up $3BN vs guidance
  • Data center revenue $51.2 billion, +66% y/y, beating estimate $49.34 billion
  • Gaming revenue $4.3 billion, +30% y/y, missing estimate $4.42 billion
  • Professional Visualization revenue $760 million, +56% y/y, beating estimate $612.8 million
  • Automotive revenue $592 million, +32% y/y, missing estimate $620.9 million
• Adjusted operating income $37.75 billion, +62% y/y, estimate $36.46 billion
• Adjusted operating expenses $4.22 billion, +38% y/y, estimate $4.22 billion
  • Adjusted gross margin 73.6%, missing est 74.0% and down from 75.0% a year ago. 
• R&D expenses $4.71 billion, +39% y/y, estimate $4.66 billion
• Free cash flow $22.09 billion, +32% y/y

And visually, the stunning fact here is that Data Center rose $10BN sequentially, and up 66% YoY.

Naturally, since NVidia's revenue is hyperscalar capex, the company has a "little" revenue concentration risk. For Q3, four direct customers with sales greater than 10% of total revenue included: 

• Customer A at 22% 
• Customer B at 15% 
• Customer C at 13% 
• Customer D at 11%

While there were some blemishes across the various segments, most notably gaming and automotive revenue which missed, these are negligible for the company considering its Data Centers revenue was a whopping $51.2BN, up 66% YoY, and smashing estimates of $49.3BN by nearly $2BN.

Going down the income statement, the one item that jumps out as not being significantly better than estimates was gross margin. Nvidia said it’s rolling out new chips and new systems and that’s pushing up the company’s costs compared with a year ago. That said, as the ramp of Blackwell picks up sequentially, so are its margins. More importantly, the company's guidance (see below) should ease concerns here.

And if historicals were impressive, the outlook was even more blowout:

• Revenue is expected to be $65.0 billion, plus or minus 2% (i.e. $63.70 billion to $66.30 billion) , smashing expectations of $61.98BN (although there were some buyside bogeys as high as $75BN which means that Huang is likely sandbagging again).
• Gross margins (GAAP and non-GAAP) are expected to be 74.8% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
• Operating expenses (GAAP and non-GAAP) are expected to be approximately $6.7 billion and $5.0 billion, respectively.

Commenting on the quarter, CEO Jensen Huang said that “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”

Kunjan Sobhani, a senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also chimes in: "With a broadening AI infrastructure build-out and improving supply alignment, clarity on the $500 billion pipeline through fiscal 2027, large-scale expansion deals and competitive options will be key for sustaining sentiment"

While normally nobody looks at Nvidia’s balance sheet, maybe it's time to start, as it is only getting stronger. NVDA ended the quarter with $60.6 billion of cash and equivalents, so "only" $320BN away from Berkshire. So it still has plenty of room to fund the adoption of AI in new parts of the economy, as it’s indicated it will.

Investors’ initial reaction to Nvidia’s results -- including a big beat on its 4Q revenue guidance -- is good. Shares spiked more than 4% in postmarket trading.

This is important, because the fate of Nvidia’s stock determines the the AI trade, and the broader market: Nvidia holds the largest weighting in the S&P 500 Index - hangs heavily on how investors digest the results and commentary from the company.

Yet while Nvidia shares are sharply higher, the move reverses only part of a slump that saw the stock slip about 10% below a record high set at the end of October. 

In any case, Nvidia’s results are strong enough to also lift shares of other stocks tied to artificial intelligence in after-hours trading: shares of CoreWeave and Nebius are up 4%, AMD is up nearly 2%, Micron is up about 2% and Broadcom shares are moving higher as well.  

Goldman's James Schneider has just pushed out his first take: "Strong quarter with upside to guidance should provide relief for the stock." We excerpt the highlights from the note below (full report available to pro subs).

• Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to trade higher following a stronger quarter and guidance relative to the Street, and against relatively balanced expectations heading into the quarter. We believe investor expectations had been somewhat elevated heading into the quarter, given upward CapEx revisions from hyperscalers, as well as Nvidia's own bullish 2026 outlook at GTC in late October. However, we believe the bar for stock performance has been lowered somewhat, with the stock pulling back ~6% ahead of the print. On the conference call, we expect investors to focus on : (1) incremental details on the company's recent $500 bn Datacenter revenue forecast; (2) visibility into OpenAI deployments; (3) the timing of the Rubin product launch in 2026.

In short: Nvidia just saved the possibility of a Christmas rally.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Also, grab a sweet knife (limited stock, almost sold out)

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:40

What We've Lost

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

What we've lost are the foundations of a healthy standard of living / quality of life.

Amidst the constant drumbeat of tech "progress" and grandiose "solutions," it's a useful exercise to ask: what have we lost in the past 40 years despite all the "progress" and "solutions"? Put another way: what did we have in 1985 that we no longer have, despite all the "progress"?

1. We no longer have affordable, functional healthcare. As I have documented, based on what I paid as an employer and self-employed worker, healthcare insurance was still affordable in 1985; this is no longer the case. By functional, I mean universally accessible and sustainable for those employed in healthcare.

Neither condition applies today. Financially marginalized Americans don't have the same access to the care that is available to wealthy Americans and those with gold-plated insurance. For many Americans, their access to care is little better (or worse) than low-income, developed-nation standards.

As for those working in healthcare, burnout and changing jobs to increase pay and reduce overwork are now standard features of frontline employment in healthcare.

2. Our collective health is systemically worse. These charts from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) tell the story: in 1985, relatively few Americans were classified as obese (BMI of 30 or higher). While BMI is not an ideal measure, moderate BMI levels reflect a lifestyle of moderate activity and relatively healthy diet. By 2023, the situation had deteriorated to the point that by more recent metrics, almost 80% of adult Americans are overweight/obese, conditions that generate a spectrum of health risks.

3. Our public infrastructure has crumbled even as our private wealth soared. Maybe the roadways and highways are pothole-free and well-maintained in your area, and public transit is clean, reliable and cheap, but as a general rule, public infrastructure has decayed over the the past 40 years to the point that it's often better in developing-world nations than in the US.

While our public infrastructure has decayed, private wealth has soared from $60 trillion in 2010 to $167 trillion in 2025. Measured by overall health and security, the top 10% are doing splendidly, having accumulated the majority of the $100 trillion in private wealth gains, while the bottom 60% are experiencing decay and decline.

4. Housing is no longer affordable. By any legitimate measure--for example, the number of hours of work needed to buy a median-priced house--housing is no longer affordable for the bottom 80% of the populace.

5. Moral decay has rotted the foundations of our society and economy. Self-interest is now the exclusive pursuit and measure of "success": consequences have no bearing on decisions unless they detract from one's private gains. Since a truthful accounting of consequences is detrimental to self-interest, artifice is now the norm. Authenticity has been replaced by curation--everything is gamed, massaged, managed to present a fake image or spectacle.

Here is a chart of healthcare insurance costs. This doesn't reflect the erosion of value generated by the expansion of co-pays, deductions and exclusions.

Here is the CDC map of obesity from 1985:

Here is the CDC map of obesity for 2023:

Private wealth has skyrocketed...

... but not everyone gained ground. As I have often noted, the bottom 50%'s share of household wealth has declined. Only the top tier benefited from The Everything Bubble.

Measured by wages, housing affordability is now worse than at the peak of the 2005-07 Housing Bubble #1.

As for moral decay, since honest appraisals are anathema, there will be no admission that the status quo is far more corrupt than it was in 1985. We all know it, but it cannot be admitted publicly, or ours is now a culture of excuses, prevarications, rationalizations, empty slogans, distractions and grandiose claims. The inability to admit that the status quo is corrupt is a measure of the depth of systemic moral decay.

What we've lost are the foundations of a healthy standard of living / quality of life.

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My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition) through November. Introduction (free)

Check out my updated Books and Films.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:20

Larry Summers Resigns From OpenAI Board; Harvard Launches Investigation After Epstein Revelations

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has resigned from the board of OpenAI following the release of messages in which Summers was asking Jeffrey Epstein for dating advice to try and bed a female mentee whose father was a former CCP official. 

Then-Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers speaks at the University's 2004 Commencement ceremony. Summers recently retracted from public engagements after his emails with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were released. By Crimson Multimedia Staff

On Monday Summers announced that he would be stepping back from all public commitments - and while he said he would continue to teach at Harvard, his office appeared to be gone Monday evening. 

"In line with my announcement to step away from my public commitments, I have also decided to resign from the board of OpenAI," Summers told Axios. "I am grateful for the opportunity to have served, excited about the potential of the company and look forward to following their progress."  

Over 20,000 documents were released last week by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee from Epstein's estate. 

Summers, a known longtime associate of Epstein, joined the board of OpenAI in 2023 during a brief period in which CEO Sam Altman was ousted from the company - only to return days later. Summers was appointed alongside Bret Taylor, former Salesforce CEO, and Quora CEO Adam D'Angelo - the only member of OpenAI's initial board who still had a seat. 

In a statement, OpenAI said "Larry has decided to resign from the OpenAI Board of Directors, and we respect his decision. We appreciate his many contributions and the perspective he brought to the Board."

Meanwhile, the Economic Club of New York postponed a discussion with Summers this week, hours after the Crimson published its article - telling FT that it was "postponed due to an unavoidable change in schedule. 

Harvard Investigates

According to the Harvard Crimson, the University will launch a new investigation into its ties to Epstein following the Summers scandal. The university had already conducted an investigation in 2020, in which they found that Epstein donated $9,179,000 across 22 'gifts', including a $736,000 donation after his 2006 arrest but before his 2008 conviction for sex trafficking a minor. 

Epstein was also a Visiting Fellow in the Psychology Department in the 2005-2006 academic year despite lacking academic qualifications typically possessed by Visiting Fellows. 

The new probe will cover any new information revealed in the new document dump, including hundreds of messages Summers and Epstein exchanged regarding women, politics, and Harvard-related initiatives. 

Several other prominent Harvard faculty also appeared in the documents, including Harvard Law School professor emeritus Alan M. Dershowitz and English professor emerita Elisa F. New, who is married to Summers, the Crimson reports. 

The cache of documents released last week added to a long paper trail detailing ties between Epstein and prominent Harvard affiliates.

In the documents, New discussed her personal projects at length with Epstein, soliciting thousands of dollars in funding from the child sex trafficker several times — years after Harvard said it had stopped taking contributions from Epstein.

In one 2014 exchange, New and Epstein discussed a potential $500,000 gift to Poetry in America, a television show and digital initiative she spearheaded. She also accepted an unspecified amount of money from Leon Black, an executive at private equity giant Apollo, in a gift that she wrote Epstein helped broker.

“It really means a lot to me, all financial help aside, Jeffrey, that you are rooting for me and thinking about me,” she wrote in December 2015.

So Epstein was advising Summers on how to cheat on his wife, while also discussing fundraising with said wife.

*  *  *

Grab a solid knife that was hand-made in the USA (limited stock, almost sold out)

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:12

Venezuela Sentences Doctor To 30 Years For WhatsApp Message

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Venezuelan socialist regime has just sentenced a 65-year-old doctor, Marggie Orozco, to 30 years in prison for criticizing the regime of socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro in a WhatsApp voice note in 2024.

Orozco was reportedly found guilty of “treason to the fatherland, incitement to hatred, and conspiracy” in complaining about the regime’s distribution of the often hard-to-find domestic gas cylinders in her community.

She has already suffered two heart attacks in the last two years, including one while in prison.

Some on the left, including members of the Chicago Teachers’ Union, have praised Venezuela despite being a brutal authoritarian regime.

This conviction was notably under the regime’s “anti-hate speech” law for those spreading “hateful content.”

As many in the West denounce this conviction, it is important to note that Western countries use the same ill-defined laws to punish citizens in their own countries for “inciting hatred” or spreading dangerous disinformation.

In the United Kingdom, a person was convicted for having “toxic ideologies.” A woman in the UK was arrested for silently praying near an abortion clinic.

Canada has used the same rationales as Russia for punishing its citizens for political views.

The difference appears not to be the limits on free speech but who is yielding these powers.

It is like arguing that your country may have the same authoritarian laws, but it is a benign authoritarianism.

If the Orozco case disgusts you, you should also be disgusted by Western countries and the European Union wielding the same powers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:25

'Massive Shift' In US-Korea Relations After Trump Gets Seoul To Stop Targeting Tech

Last month we noted that South Korea has been effectively running a racket to extract money from Big Tech through the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) - which, taking a note from the EU, has repeatedly targeted US firms with massive fines over various business practices. For years, the targeted industries have argued that Korean “network usage fees,” mandatory billing rules, app-store regulations, digital-platform laws, and privacy rulings were crafted to disadvantage foreign competitors while protecting national champions.

President Donald Trump walks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung as they prepare to attend a bilateral lunch meeting at the Gyeongju National Museum on October 29, 2025 in Gyeongju, South Korea. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

The longstanding U.S. - Korea alliance has operated within a familiar structure: Washington provided unconditional military protection, while Seoul pursued autonomous industrial and regulatory policies - occasionally at the expense of U.S. firms. The KFTC in particular developed a reputation among American technology, pharmaceutical, and automotive companies as an aggressive, often unpredictable enforcer whose investigations and fines disproportionately targeted foreign market leaders. In sectors ranging from app stores to semiconductors, U.S. firms routinely complained of a regulatory process that lacked transparency, due-process standards, and basic recognition of attorney-client privilege.

In 2021, they fined Google $177 over alleged anti-competitive practices in Android licensing. In 2023,  Apple faced a $22 million fine for keeping developers in the Apple payment ecosystem. In 2024, the KFTC launched probes into Amazon and Google over alleged preferential treatment in online advertising and search results, which they said could disadvantage Korean firms. 

They've also targeted Qualcomm, Meta, Tesla and other US firms, leaving many wondering whether Korea's antitrust apparatus was deploying economic nationalism under the guise of competition enforcement. Investigations were often launched under political pressure, imposed fines were regularly among the highest in the world, and procedural protections were thin compared to OECD norms.

Not Anymore...

During President Donald Trump's October visit to the Republic of Korea, things were quickly straightened out. In a Nov. 13 press release, the White House writes:

“The United States and the ROK commit to ensure that U.S. companies are not discriminated against and do not face unnecessary barriers in laws and policies concerning digital services, including network usage fees and online platform regulations.”

So - Korea will need to keep their attack dog on a leash. To that end: 

“The ROK commits to provide additional procedural fairness provisions in competition proceedings, including the recognition of attorney-client privilege.”

This further neuters the KFTC, an institution that historically did not offer the evidentiary protections common in U.S. or EU jurisdictions. American companies have long complained that Korean antitrust proceedings allowed investigators access to internal legal communications - a structural disadvantage that no domestic firm in the United States or Europe would be forced to accept. 

As a member of the Trade Subcommittee, ensuring U.S. companies are treated fairly when operating abroad is crucial. That’s why I introduced bipartisan legislation addressing the Republic of Korea’s harmful digital trade barriers earlier this year.

I’m grateful to President…

— Rep. Carol Miller (@RepCarolMiller) November 18, 2025

Beyond the KFTC, Seoul’s commitments under the new Korea Strategic Trade and Investment framework seem like a great deal for America:

• $150 billion in U.S.-approved investments in shipbuilding

• $200 billion more under a coming MOU

• A $36 billion Boeing aircraft purchase

• $25 billion in U.S. defense acquisitions

• $33 billion in support for U.S. Forces Korea

While the US is no longer separating defense and economics - it's explicitly linking security cooperation to regulatory reciprocity, and makes clear that a strong alliance requires a fair economic relationship.

Carrot and Stick

Politico reports that if Korea walks away from the agreement, they could launch a '301 probe' 

According to three people close to the discussions who were granted anonymity to disclose private conversations, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and other administration officials have repeatedly warned they could launch a 301 probe if Seoul walks away from that particular part of the agreement.

Greer most recently issued that warning during discussions leading up to last month’s summit between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, as South Korean negotiators hedged on proposals the U.S. believes would expose tech behemoths like Google, Apple and Meta to heavy fines. He also said something similar at a September meeting with South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo, the people said.

The pressure campaign is part of the administration’s wider effort to push back on foreign regulations aimed at reining in the power of large digital platforms — a model pioneered by the European Union and its Digital Markets Act. Last week, the Trump administration unveiled trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador that include requirements that those countries reject digital services taxes. 

That said, "Administration officials and U.S. tech industry allies are expressing confidence that Lee’s government won’t renege on that agreement."

"After all the hard work that went into last week’s trade deal, it’s unimaginable that Korean officials would let the KFTC move forward with legislation or regulatory actions that would blow everything up and inevitably lead back to higher tariffs and escalating tensions," one corporate lobbyist close to the White House told the outlet. 

A White House official told Politico that the possibility of a Section 301 "came up" during the talks, but that the US was not considering a "heavy-handed approach" at this time.

"The Koreans understood that tariffs are … a stick we carry," the official added. 

 

Meanwhile, after years of Washington blocking Seoul's ambitions for nuclear-powered attack subs, Trump gave them the green light.

A 3,000-ton diesel submarine during a ceremony to hand it over to the Navy, at the HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. in Ulsan, South Korea, in 2024.Credit...Yonhap/EPA, via Shutterstock

According to Trump's first National Security Advisor, Ambassador Robert O'Brien, "The US-ROK trade agreement signals a massive shift in how Korean officials are now expected to treat US firms. It officially recognizes the need to address a history of aggressive, discriminatory policies against American tech companies—including raids & unfounded criminal prosecutions. This deal should effectively kill any new legislation in Korea targeting online platforms, consistent with explicit warnings from President @realDonaldTrump."

The US-ROK trade agreement signals a massive shift in how Korean officials are now expected to treat US firms. It officially recognizes the need to address a history of aggressive, discriminatory policies against American tech companies—including raids & unfounded criminal…

— Robert C. O'Brien (@robertcobrien) November 17, 2025

There are still issues to be hammered out with the sub deal; where they'll be made and how to secure fuel for them considering Washington's longstanding stance on not allowing Seoul to enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel (their 26 nuclear reactors are all powered by imported fuel). Seoul, however, wants to enrich uranium themselves to build its own fuel supply chain and bolster its energy security. 

Whatever happens with that, it's clear that Seoul is aligning its industrial future more tightly with the United States than at any point in modern history.

Korea has been officially put on notice. Treat American companies poorly, threaten our workers, raid our firms’ offices, and President Trump will push back.

It’s insane we’ve tolerated this kind of behavior from an ally, but even greater that the new trade deal KlLLS any… pic.twitter.com/7LnZCAthj0

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) November 16, 2025

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:05

FOMC Minutes Expose Fractured Fed; "Many" See No Tariff Inflation, "Several" Fear Disorderly Drop In Stocks

Since the last FOMC meeting (Oct 29th), gold is the best performing asset (along with the dollar) as bonds, stocks, and oil are all down notably...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut odds for the December meeting continued to tumble after Powell's hawkish comments (and the follow-up FedSpeak). Today saw BLS confirm no more payrolls data before the next Fed meeting and that pushed expectations even more hawkishly lower...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, The Fed cut rates by 25bps in the October meeting to 3.75-4.00%, with two dissenters: 1 hawkish (Schmid) and 1 dovish (Miran). Other non-voters have been out recently suggesting they did not support a cut.

While markets have made up their minds on the rate-cut decision, as we noted earlier, we'll be watching for color on the hawk/dove split; but, most eyes will be on discussions around The Fed's balance sheet (the end of QT) and the level of reserves being somewhere between 'abundant' and 'ample'.

So, what does The Fed want us to know it was thinking during the meeting?

On the rate-cut decision, there is a hawkish bias ('Several' is less than 'many')

• *FED: `SEVERAL' SAID DECEMBER CUT `COULD WELL BE' APPROPRIATE

  • Several participants said another cut in December “could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected” before the next meeting.

• *FED: `MANY' SAW DECEMBER RATE CUT AS LIKELY NOT APPROPRIATE

  • “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year,” the minutes said.

The doves are doing God's work on the jobs market...

"Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions."

But... the hawks are there too to warn you off...

"Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective."

AI/Valuations are in the back of their minds...

Some participants commented on stretched asset valuations in financial markets, with several of these participants highlighting the possibility of a disorderly fall in equity prices, especially in the event of an abrupt reassessment of the possibilities of AI-related technology.

A couple of participants cited risks associated with high levels of corporate borrowing.

Finally, and perhaps the most notable line was with regard to inflation...

Simply put, the Minutes suggest that tariff inflation is no longer a pressing concern...

"Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment."

...which helps explain why so "many" of The Fed are increasingly focused on jobs.

Full Breakdown:

On current outlook:

• Participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year.

• Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data.

• Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions.

• Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment.

• Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective.

• Participants judged that a careful balancing of risks was required and agreed on the importance of well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations in achieving the Committee’s dual-mandate objectives.

On the neutral rate and financial conditions

• Some said policy would remain restrictive even after a 0.25ppt cut.

• Some, citing resilient activity, supportive conditions or real-rate estimates, said policy was not clearly restrictive.

• Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive of activity.

On Inflation

• Participants noted inflation had moved up and remained somewhat above target; core inflation stayed elevated.

• Several said inflation excluding tariff effects was close to target.

• Many said inflation had been above target for some time with little sign of timely return to 2%.

• Most noted further rate cuts could add to risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as lack of commitment to 2% inflation objective

• Several cited persistent core non-housing services inflation as keeping inflation above 2%.

• Many expected further pickup in core goods inflation from tariff pass-through.

• Several highlighted uncertainty around tariff effects and firms' delayed pricing.

• Several reported businesses planned gradual price increases due to higher tariff-related input costs.

• A few said productivity gains via automation or AI could limit pass-through.

• A few said a softer labor market would restrain pressures.

• A couple said lower immigration would lessen housing demand and strengthen housing disinflation.

• Many noted risks that prolonged above-target inflation could raise longer-term expectations.

Labor market & growth

• Participants observed slowed job gains and a higher unemployment rate before the shutdown.

• Participants saw indicators showing gradual softening without sharp deterioration.

• Many attributed the slowdown to reduced labour supply and less labour demand amid uncertainty.

• Many said structural factors, including Al-related investment, were dampening labor demand.

• Participants generally expected further gradual softening with less dynamism.

• Several warned low turnover and hiring hesitancy posed downside risks.

• A few saw rising unemployment in sensitive groups or concentrated job gains as signalling broader weakness.

• Some noted persistent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, possibly due to productivity gains and demographic constraints.

• Participants noted moderate activity; many reported firmer consumer spending.

• Many highlighted divergence across income groups, with high-income households supporting consumption and lower-income households showing price sensitivity.

• A couple warned that reliance on high-income spending created vulnerability.

• A couple noted continued housing-market weakness despite some stabilisation.

• Many highlighted strong technology and Al-related investment.

• A few said lower business taxes or regulatory easing would support activity.

• Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive.

• A few cited ongoing agricultural headwinds from low crop prices, high input costs and weak foreign demand.

Balance sheet & QT & liquidity

• Almost all said it was appropriate to conclude runoff on 1 December or could support doing so.

• Most participants favored a fed portfolio matching the composition of treasuries outstanding

Asset prices:

• Several participants highlighted possibility of disorderly fall in stock prices, especially in event of abrupt reassessment of ai- related prospects.

Housing market and real estate commentary

• A couple noted continued housing-market weakness and affordability constraints.

Agricultural commentary

• A few cited headwinds from low crop prices, elevated input costs and weaker foreign demand.

Discussions of Artificial Intelligence

• A few participants suggested that potential recent productivity gains achieved through automation and AI may help businesses support their profit margins and limit the extent to which cost increases are passed on to consumers

• Many participants remarked that structural factors such as investment related to AI and other productivity-enhancing technologies may be contributing to softer labor demand.

• Some participants noted the apparent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, with several suggesting that this pattern might persist over time as advances in AI boost productivity growth while demographic factors constrain labor supply.

• Regarding the business sector, many participants highlighted strong investment in technology, particularly spending related to AI and data centers. Some participants suggested that those investments could boost productivity and thus aggregate supply.

• Broad equity indexes continued to rise over the period, with the largest technology companies performing strongly on market participants’ optimism about artificial intelligence (AI). The manager noted that rising stock prices were consistent with expectations for continued robust growth in earnings.

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:00

"This Is A National Emergency" - US Govt To Buy 10 Large, New Nuclear Reactors

Hot on the heels of news that it will invest "hundreds of billions" in loans to the nuclear power industry, including one already disbursed loan for $1BN to restart Three Mile Island, Bloomberg reported that the US government also plans to buy and own as many as 10 new, large nuclear reactors that could be paid for using Japan’s $550BN funding pledge, part of the Trump admin's existential push to meet surging demand for electricity

The Energy Department’s chief of staff, Carl Coe, made comments today detailing the unusual arrangement related to the $550 billion in funding for US projects announced by Japan, Bloomberg reports.

“The role of having the government involved in private markets is sacrosanct — you just don’t do it,” Coe said at an energy conference hosted by the Tennessee Advanced Energy Business Council. “But this is a national emergency.”

The announcement sparked speculation which companies would benefit from the federal government's upcoming purchases, which as we said yesterday, would amount to a flood of capital for the nuclear sector. 

It is still unclear whether the funding commitments made by Japan, announced last month as part of a trade deal framework with the US, will come to fruition. In all, Japan has agreed to invest some $332 billion for energy projects in the United States, according to the White House. That pledge, in addition to Westinghouse’s new AP1000 reactors, include a new breed of smaller nuclear reactors, as well new power plants, electric transmission projects and pipelines. 

Below we list some of the most likely beneficiaries:

• Cameco, CCJ - Currently a 49% owner of Westinghouse. They, along with Brookfield Asset Management, are already coordinating with the US government for building out the only large reactor design currently in discussion – the 1,100 MWe AP1000. The only other large reactor with a partially US-owned design is the boiling water reactor from GE-Hitachi. Those reactor designs haven't been marketed for development by GE Venova for years, while the company has instead focused on their 300 MWe design, the BWRX-300.

• BWX Technologies, BWXT - While this company doesn’t currently have much involvement with the construction of AP1000 reactors, due to this new project being federally driven, there could be an increased role for the US government’s primary nuclear contractor for heavy fabrication or manufacturing.

• Mirion Technologies MIR - They are one of the leaders in radiation safety and monitoring equipment, and are one of Westinghouse’s primary contractors for reactor instrumentation. Their recent acquisition of Paragon adds to the suite of monitoring equipment they have to offer for new plants.

• Flowserve, FLS - While still a comparatively small portion of their overall revenue, Flowserve is the leading provider of critical pumps and valves for nuclear primary and secondary systems. In their lastest earning report, they pointed to a potential $10 billion revenue stream of nuclear contracts for which they think they are one of the leading competitors.

• Centrus Energy, LEU - They are on the cusp of finally commencing their Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), typically used by large commercial reactors like the AP1000, and High-Assay LEU (HALEU), used by most small advanced reactors, capacity expansion projects after multiple pledges for support made by South Korea and the US government. Additional task orders under the DOE’s uranium enrichment programs are also anticipated in the coming weeks.

• Silex Systems, SILXY (SLX.ASX) - Silex owns 51% of Global Laser Enrichment, a company using lasers to enrich uranium at a test facility in North Carolina, with a fuel facility license currently under review for a commercial plan in Kentucky. They are actively producing hundreds of kilograms of LEU for the calendar year at their facility in North Carolina, and have deep integration with the DOE to produce additional quantities of uranium for additional enrichment.

• Domestically owned and operated uranium mining companies, UEC, EU, URG, UUUU - The four major American uranium companies stand to benefit from the federal effort to expand domestic mining of uranium, not just for a commercial fleet expansion effort, but for defense purposes, as uranium mined in the United States is the only ore that can be used for use in nuclear weapons and US Navy reactors.

As we have discussed extensively in recent weeks, and as the Trump admin has picked up, there are now flashing red alerts about a shortage of electricity needed for energy-hungry data centers that power artificial intelligence and for a potential resurgence of domestic manufacturing. On his first day in office, President Donald Trump declared an energy emergency, unlocking new domestic powers to fast-track pipelines, expand power grids and save struggling coal plants.

It has been more than a decade since the US last broke ground on a large-scale nuclear power plant that came online. Most of America’s energy industry wrote off for dead the notoriously expensive projects after Southern Co., the last utility to build a new plant, went $16 billion over budget and seven years behind schedule building its Vogtle project.

Still, the AI boom has created new life for the big plants. Earlier this year, Xcel Chief Executive Officer Bob Frenzel raised the idea that the projects could come back in vogue.

It is still unclear whether the funding commitments made by Japan, announced last month as part of a trade deal framework with the US, will come to fruition. In all, Japan has agreed to invest some $332 billion for energy projects in the United States, according to the White House. That pledge, in addition to Westinghouse’s new AP1000 reactors, include a new breed of smaller nuclear reactors, as well new power plants, electric transmission projects and pipelines.

The problem, as anyone who is familiar with Japan's sovereign debt and chronic budget deficits, is that the country simply does not have this money, which likely means that while the Trump admin will use Tokyo as a smokescreen for money purposes, the actual funds - tens if not hundreds of billions of them - will come from Uncle Sam's own treasury in the coming years. 

The Energy Department didn’t immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for more details. Coe, in his remarks at the conference, said lots of details remained to be decided, but expressed confidence the nuclear reactors would come through.

“We’re trying to decide where to put them,” Coe said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 14:45

Trump Urges Adoption Of Single Federal Standard On AI Regulation

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said the United States should adopt one federal standard for governing artificial intelligence (AI), saying it’s important for the United States to stay ahead of China in the race for AI dominance.

In a Truth Social post on Nov. 18, Trump said the United States needs a single AI standard rather than “a patchwork of 50 state regulatory regimes,” warning that state-level rules are stifling the country’s AI growth.

“Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the ‘HOTTEST’ in the World, but overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Major Growth ‘Engine’,” he wrote.

Trump said some states tried to “embed DEI ideology into AI models,” producing what he described as “woke AI.” DEI refers to diversity, equity, and inclusion.

“If we don’t, then China will easily catch us in the AI race. Put it in the NDAA, or pass a separate Bill, and nobody will ever be able to compete with America,” he stated, referring to the National Defense Authorization Act.

His statement came amid reports that House Republican leaders were planning to include language in the NDAA that would prevent states from regulating AI.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has opposed the plan, saying that stripping states of AI regulatory power would be “a subsidy to Big Tech” and would block states from “protecting against online censorship of political speech, predatory applications that target children, violations of intellectual property rights, and data center intrusions on power/water resources.”

“The rise of AI is the most significant economic and cultural shift occurring at the moment; denying the people the ability to channel these technologies in a productive way via self-government constitutes federal government overreach and lets technology companies run wild. Not acceptable,” DeSantis stated on X.

AI Dominance Pursued

Since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump has pursued policies aimed at securing U.S. dominance in AI development, including efforts to remove regulatory barriers on AI developers.

Story continues below advertisement

The White House’s “AI Action Plan,” released in July, states that the country seeks to build “the most powerful AI systems in the world,” and recommends that the federal government block AI-related funding to states with AI regulations.

“AI is too far important to smother in bureaucracy at this early stage, whether at the state or Federal level. The Federal government should not allow AI-related Federal funding to be directed toward states with burdensome AI regulations that waste these funds, but should also not interfere with states’ rights to pass prudent laws that are not unduly restrictive to innovation,” it stated.

In July, Trump signed an executive order targeting what he called “woke AI.” The order directs federal agencies to procure only large language models that are “truth-seeking” and politically neutral—AI models that the administration deems “do not manipulate responses in favor of ideological dogmas such as DEI.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 14:25

Army Announces Next Steps On Janus Program For Next-Generation Nuclear Energy

As part of next steps for the Janus Program, the Department of Army said that it has selected nine installations for consideration in which to site microreactor power plants, and the Defense Innovation Unit released an Area of Interest to solicit commercial solutions for advanced nuclear power technologies.

The Janus Program, the Army’s next-generation nuclear power program, aims to deliver secure, resilient, and reliable energy to support national defense installations and critical missions in accordance with EO 14299 Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security. In partnership with the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), the program will build commercial microreactors through a milestone-based contracting model to accelerate delivery of advanced energy solutions to the warfighters.

Janus Program Site Selection

The Army identified nine sites through comprehensive analysis and on-site assessment to identify optimal locations for initial deployment. The process evaluated mission critical installations, energy requirements and resiliency gaps, power infrastructure, environmental and technical considerations. These sites mark the first step in expanding national energy resilience through next-generation nuclear technology. Listed in alphabetical order, the selected sites are:

1. Fort Benning
2. Fort Bragg
3. Fort Campbell
4. Fort Drum
5. Fort Hood
6. Fort Wainwright
7. Holston Army Ammunition Plant
8. Joint Base Lewis-McChord
9. Redstone Arsenal

While the final number and location for these microreactors on Army installations will be determined as part of the acquisition process, the Army is committed to maximizing the number of sites based on technical feasibility, site suitability, and available resources.

“These early site selections align with the Department of War’s goal of accelerating the pace of deploying on-site nuclear generation at our installations,” said HON Jordan Gillis, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment. “Through the use of the Army’s unique nuclear regulatory authorities, we are deploying a resilient, secure, and reliable energy supply for critical defense operations and in support of the most lethal land-based fighting force in the world.”

Microreactor power plants represent a significant technological advancement, in safety, security and waste management. They are safe by design, not by intervention protocols. The Janus Program is leveraging the Department of Energy and its network of National Labs to ensure the appropriate expertise is applied to the evaluation of proposed designs, operational plans, and emergency preparedness plans.

The rollout of Janus technology will occur in stages as the Army validates lessons learned and ensures safe, efficient implementation. These projects will be self-contained and protected appropriately. All projects will comply with the applicable federal, state, and local regulations, and leverage the safety features inherent in next-generation reactor designs. We do not anticipate any significant impact to installation land use.

The Army shares a commitment to public safety and transparency with our host communities and recognizes that the communities surrounding these installations have vested interest in their operations. Specific timelines for each location will be announced in future updates, as the team cooperates with military installations, residents, and the surrounding communities to keep all stakeholders informed. The Army is committed to providing transparent information throughout the planning process and welcomes public engagement and feedback.

Defense Innovation Unit Area of Interest

The Army has executed a Memorandum of Agreement with the DIU to utilize its Commercial Solutions Opening (CSO) process and Other Transaction Authority (OTA) to begin the solicitation process which will result in awarding select vendors Other Transactions (OTs) to execute on the Janus Program goals. An Area of Interest (AOI) notification has been released via DIU’s website https://www.diu.mil/work-with-us/open-solicitations to solicit industry concepts for deployment of advanced nuclear technologies. The AOI will gather technical and operational information from industry regarding deployment and use of microreactors on military installations to begin the CSO process.

"We’ve established a great partnership with the U.S. Army. DIU is ready and excited to leverage our rapid CSO process to execute the Janus Program in collaboration with our government and industry partners,” said DIU Energy Portfolio Director, Dr. Andrew Higier. “This collaboration will deliver advanced nuclear energy to Army installations, ensuring their most critical missions always have resilient and ready power."

“The Janus Program is taking its first step toward pairing specific nuclear reactor designs to specific U.S. Army installations,” said Dr. Jeff Waksman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment. “We will move to bending metal as quickly as possible, leveraging the enormous amount of technical talent gathered to execute this program.”

The release of the AOI and site selection demonstrate the Janus Program’s accelerated pace for the revitalization of American industrial capacity and technological leadership. By prioritizing the optimal installations to initially support microreactor power plants and working with industry to efficiently deploy next generation nuclear capabilities on our installations, these initiatives represent a substantial investment in the future of energy security for the Army and the Nation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 13:45

"What Has Become Of Us": Rosie O'Donnell May Have Just Handed Trump A Golden Defamation Lawsuit

Authored by Jonthan Turley,

I have previously expressed skepticism over some defamation cases against the media brought by President Donald Trump under existing case law. However, comedian Rosie O’Donnell may have supplied the President with a another defamation case if she cannot back up sensational claims made against the President to her 2.9 million TikTok followers. She states as a fact that the President is an “adjudicated rapist” and settled child abuse cases.

O’Donnell seems to spend much of her days in a constant rave about Trump, Republicans, and the demise of the United States from her new home in Ireland. That is fine and an exercise of free speech. However, it may have crossed the line into defamation in her latest posting.

O’Donnell stated:

“Did you think it a million years that they would reelect a man who orchestrated an insurrection against the government? They would reelect that guy with all the charges of sex abuse? — the adjudicated rapist…And then I just saw this thing today about all the cases he’s settled with children, children’s families, accusations about him, that he chose to settle.”

She added:

“When are we going to be able to go, ‘We’re grown up enough to understand that this kind of deviant, psychotic, mentally ill behavior goes on at the highest level sometimes, and no matter where it goes on, it is our duty to stop it,’” O’Donnell continued in her unhinged rant…Shame, people. Shame on what has become of us.”

Notably, at least eleven months ago, O’Donnell called Trump a “rapist” and a “serial pedophile rapist.”

Trump previously sued over the claim that he is a rapist. He lost such a case against E. Jean Carroll after a judge ruled that her claim to have been raped by Trump was “substantially true.” The judge wrote: “The only issue on which the jury did not find in Ms Carroll’s favour was whether she proved that Mr Trump ‘raped’ her within the narrow, technical meaning of that term in the New York penal law.”

Nevertheless, Trump was not legally “adjudicated” to be a rapist. The addition of the word “adjudicated” could move the claim outside of mere opinion.

Even without that word, it is considered potentially defamatory to claim that Trump is, in fact, a rapist despite the earlier ruling in New York. MSNBC and the show “Morning Joe,” for example, quickly retracted a statement that Trump was a “rapist.”

The earlier denial of the defamation case certainly would help O’Donnell, but it is not dispositive. More importantly, that is not all that she said.

The second claim is that Trump settled with the “children’s families” over abuse cases.

It is not clear what the basis for this allegation is, but Reuters reported months ago about fake headlines on the Internet claiming that prosecutors were considering “child molestation charges” against Trump.

It is not clear if O’Donnell can produce support for the claim. If she cannot, it would certainly constitute “per se” defamation.

The common law has long recognized per se categories of defamation where damages are presumed and special damages need not be proven.  These include: (1) disparaging a person’s professional character or standing; (2) alleging a person is unchaste; (3) alleging that a person has committed a criminal act or act of moral turpitude; (4) alleging a person has a sexual or loathsome disease; and (5) attacking a person’s business or professional reputation.

Claiming that Trump settled child abuse cases would certainly trigger a couple of these categories.

The United Kingdom is generally a better jurisdiction to bring defamation cases than the United States, which has stronger free speech and free press protections.

In the United States, any such action would have to be brought under the higher standard. In New York Times v. Sullivan, the Supreme Court established the actual malice standard, requiring public officials to shoulder the higher burden of proving defamation. Under that standard, an official would have to show either actual knowledge of its falsity or a reckless disregard of the truth. That standard was later extended to public figures.

If O’Donnell had no credible sources for this claim, it would appear to be clearly a reckless disregard of the truth.

That she said this to millions of followers only magnifies the general damages presumed in such cases.

Unless O’Donnell can argue truth as a defense with credible support for such settlements, she may have just given Trump a golden opportunity to pursue his long-time critic. There is no love lost between these two, but there could soon be a defamation action.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 11:30

Cloudflare Blames Database Error For Outage That Took Down 20% Of The Web

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Internet services provider Cloudflare says that a fault in its bot detection system triggered an outage that took down around 20% of webpages, including several crypto platforms.

Cloudflare said in a post-mortem statement on Tuesday that a “feature file” used by its Bot Management System to fight off cyberattacks grew beyond its normal limit, leading to a failure in Cloudflare’s software.

“We are sorry for the impact to our customers and to the Internet in general. Given Cloudflare’s importance in the Internet ecosystem any outage of any of our systems is unacceptable.”

The company initially suspected the incident was caused by a hyper-scale Distributed Denial of Service attack, but confirmed there was no cyberattack or malicious activity.

Cloudflare handles roughly 20% of internet traffic and powers around one-third of the top 10,000 websites, apps and services.

Its outage took out the websites for Coinbase, Blockchain.com, Ledger, BitMEX, Toncoin, Arbiscan, and DefiLlama, as well as X and ChatGPT, leading some crypto commentators to remark on the crypto industry’s reliance on centralized systems, some of which also went offline when Amazon Web Services suffered a network outage last month. 

Source: Nader Dabit

A spokesperson for EthStorage, which offers a product allowing Ethereum to be used as a web server, told Cointelegraph that the AWS and Cloudflare outages show “centralized infrastructure will always create single points of failure.”

“A complete decentralized web stack is needed more than ever,” the company said.

Vitalik Buterin wants decentralization prioritized

Last Wednesday, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin authored a “Trustless Manifesto,” which called on industry builders to never sacrifice decentralization in pursuit of adoption.

Buterin and Ethereum Foundation researchers Yoav Weiss and Marissa Posner, said crypto platforms sacrifice trustlessness from the moment that they integrate a hosted node or centralized relayer, explaining that while it feels harmless, each new checkpoint becomes a potential chokepoint.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:45

Surprise Crude Draw Stabilizes Oil Prices After Early Plunge On Russia Peace Talk Headlines

Oil prices tumbled overnight following API's report suggesting a large build in crude inventories, , which would take oil stored in commercial tanks to the highest level in more than five months, if confirmed by official data this morning.

The supply buildup may help cushion the impact of US sanctions against Russian producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC that are set to kick in within days, part of efforts to raise the pressure against Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

An Axios report that Washington has been working in consultation with the Kremlin to draft a new plan also eased supply concerns, though Moscow denied any talks.

Additionally, Politico reported that the White House is expecting a new peace agreement with Russia by the end of November, which could bring the war with Ukraine to an end.

While on the topic of Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told journalists that while the country has under-utilized its OPEC+ allocation recently, within the coming months, Russia will be able to increase oil production to the level permitted under the OPEC+ agreement, he said.

"I think within the next few months, perhaps by the end of the year, maybe at the beginning of next year, we will see how the companies [respond]," he said.

"In November, production will be higher than in October. I cannot say exactly by how much right now, but there is an increase."

So will the official data confirm API's report?

API

• Crude +4.4mm

• Cushing -800k

• Gasoline +1.5mm

• Distillates +600k

DOE

• Crude -3.426mm

• Cushing -698k

• Gasoline +2.327mm - first build in seven weeks

• Distillates +171k

Shocker: while API reported a big build, the official data showed a large crude inventory drawdown last week. Additionally, Gasoline stocks rose for the first time in seven weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing stocks are hovering near 'tank bottoms' - so much for the SPR rebuild?

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI fell to around $59 overnight and is stabilizing there after the official data report...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Prices were also pressured after failure to break past their 50-day moving average in recent days.

The global benchmark came within two cents of that marker on Tuesday, before retreating sharply on Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:38

Rearranging The Chairs

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Rearranging the Chairs

Tuesday was another down day for most markets as the US weekly ADP jobs report suggested the labor backdrop is weakening and housing starts sagged. As the FT puts it, ‘Oracle’s astonishing $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $60bn.’

Here Is The Batshit Insane Chart That Sent Oracle Stock Soaring 25% After Hours https://t.co/Haus5Ueybg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2025

Wednesday is mixed so far in Asia for bonds: Australia is seeing its 10-year yield down around 2bps and Japan’s equivalent is up 3bp – and neither is what their economies need right now; but there as elsewhere, with K-shapes all over, nasty politics, and worrying geopolitics, what is? That question it tied up with ‘who is?’

Treasury Secretary Bessent just said he doesn’t want to be Fed Chair but that person will hopefully be named by Xmas – Trump thinks he already knows who he wants . Does anybody think it’s going to be a strong, independent, gnostic, hawk deliberately ignorant of geopolitics, who will focus on 2% CPI and clash with the White House and Treasury? I thought not.

Politico reports Spain and Germany are gunning to head the ECB in 2027, with former Bank of Spain governor de Cos, now running the BIS, in a strong position - though moving him could cost Europe its BIS leadership if Trump wants an American to run the central bankers’ central bank. Bundesbank president Nagel is mentioned, as is him recently annoying Chancellor Merz in expressing support for Eurobonds for defence purposes. Germany has more hawkish candidates – or it could support one from elsewhere, such as former president of the Dutch central bank Knot.

Markets will soon focus on this rearranging of Chairs… and that it’s on the Titanic(?) As noted yesterday, the White House sees the neoliberal, central-bank centric, inflation-targeting world no longer exists: so, logically, it won’t exist under the next Fed Chair. Monetary policy and fiscal policy will (further) conjoin, as will FX, trade, defence, industrial, and energy policy – and others to boot. Covering any of those areas will require a real understanding of that connection and the nested hierarchy of national (or bloc) Grand Macro Strategy driving them.  

Is that just a US issue? No. The PBOC operates in a similar fashion, so the world’s two largest economies would be outside the neoliberal norm. The Bank of England could follow under Reform. Even Europe will be forced to grapple with serious structural issues, which the Draghi Report argue require bold, original, joined-up thinking - and it’s not as if the ECB hasn’t changed hugely since its inception.

The real issue will be finding someone who can Chair a central bank as it will need to be run when existing candidates have, by default, been trained on how it used to need to be run. That’s not going to be easy. A related issue will be finding financial media and analysts willing to keep up with this dizzying set of conflating changes: that’s also going to be a hard sell when most of the specialised and siloed industry is built around CPI or payrolls higher/lower games.

Meanwhile, in geopolitics and related geoeconomics what the BOJ, Fed, ECB, financial media, and markets are all going to have to grapple is long and growing:

Japan issued a safety alert for its citizens in China as that diplomatic row escalates, with neither side seen willing to back down. Japanese businesses are bunkering down for the expected fallout. That’s as the US Ambassador to Japan publicly reiterated that the US will defend it if needed, in regards to the disputed Senkaku islands, which the Chinese coastguard just sailed past, as the PLA-N’s Fujian aircraft carrier completes its first training exercise after entering service.

Politico argues trench warfare in Ukraine is now far worse as drones create a “hellscape”. The FT underlines it takes 45 days(!) to move a tank from Rotterdam to the EU-Ukraine border due to infrastructure issues: a “military Schengen” is seen needed, alongside vast budgets – as a UK review has found Britain is “not ready to defend itself.”

The structure of the €140bn EU loan to Ukraine secured by Russian assets is seen by critics as deliberately designed to seize the underlying collateral as Ukraine will never be able to repay: how does that help the ‘liberal world order’ or hopes to extend the global reach of the Euro? That’s as President Zelenskyy will today visit Turkey to try to “reinvigorate” US peace talks which are likely to leave the EU holding the can even if they succeed.

In terms of EU ‘strategic autonomy’, Rio Tinto has placed its €3bn lithium project in Serbia on indefinite “care and maintenance”; Norway is furious with after being rejected for an EU metals-trade tariff exemption; and Macron stated the EU refuses to be either a US or China “vassal” in AI. S'il vous plait, use “Europe preference” to build your own system, alienating the US, at a cost of trillions of Euros, while pushing electricity prices even higher, as generals make clear AI is essential for the military, and only one standard can be used, so if the US stays in NATO, it’s from the US.

China’s PLA media accused the US of “gunboat diplomacy” vs Venezuela, as Maduro says he’s “ready to talk” to the White House. That ‘s as the Wall Street Journal notes ‘The ‘JPMorgan Boys’ Behind the U.S. Bailout for Argentina’, where “President Javier Milei’s administration is packed with former Wall Street traders trying to steer market forces.” Forces, certainly: then markets.

Trump designated Saudi Arabia as the latest US major non-NATO ally, saying MBS “knew nothing” about Khashoggi’s murder, and “things happen.” That’s as the Crown Prince pledged to invest $1 trillion in the US, reportedly pressed it to intervene to end the Sudan war and said he wants to join the Abraham Accords, which still requires a path to a Palestinian state. He now gets F-35s (years from now, and over Israeli objections) and US AI chips.

A US report argued the government needs an overhaul to compete with China: logically, yes, as it’s revealed Wright USA, an insurance company that insured FBI and CIA agents, was acquired by China's Fosun Group, giving it access to the personal data of US secret service employees. Yet a new US body would also be a single-point of failure – and now do everyone else.

In the economy, the FT notes ‘the growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers’ – yes, and now do everywhere else, recalling these are what central-bank technocrats and market analysts are supposed to work with. The Wall Street Journal adds that this is ‘The Most Joyless Tech Revolution Ever: AI Is Making Us Rich and Unhappy.’

In European politics, Germany’s Merz is facing a conservative rebellion over pension reforms, France still doesn’t have a budget, France and Germany are clashing over a controversial EU budget structure, Danish voters are turning on PM Frederiksen over housing costs (says Politico), and Ireland’s Donohoe has resigned as the Eurogroup president to run the World Bank.

In US politics, Congress approved the release of the Epstein files. Once Trump signs, expect a flood of headline-grabbing info, or at least that which is not redacted for legal or national security reasons, which the legislation grants AG Bondi the power to do.  

One might think this has nothing to do with markets or Fed Chairs or geopolitics and geoeconomics. Until one sees an already-released Epstein email forced former Treasury Secretary and nearly-Fed Chair and former Harvard President Larry Summers to step away from public life because it revealed he asked Epstein for advice on how to seduce a Chinese economist mentee - who was the daughter of a senior CCP official, a former Vice Minister of Finance, and at that time chairing the World Bank-rival Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank HQ-ed in Beijing.

But let’s all talk about 2% CPI – clearly that’s where all the real action is.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:20

MP Materials Stock Spikes After JV Deal With Saudi Arabia's Flagship Mining Company

MP Materials stock is up more than 6% heading into the cash open after the company announced a rare earth refinery joint venture with Saudi Arabia's flagship mining company.

MP, the U.S. Department of War, and Saudi Arabia’s state mining giant Maaden have announced a joint venture to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, marking one of the first major projects under a new U.S.–Saudi framework for critical mineral cooperation, the company wrote in a release this morning.

The venture is intended to diversify and stabilize the global rare earth supply chain, reducing reliance on adversarial sources while supporting manufacturing and defense needs in both countries and their allies.

The refinery will process rare earth feedstock from Saudi Arabia and other regions, producing separated light and heavy rare earth oxides for U.S., Saudi, and allied markets.

MP Materials CEO James Litinsky said, “We are honored that the U.S. government asked MP to partner on a project of this magnitude and importance for America and its allies,” adding that the agreement “underscores MP Materials’ role as an American national champion.” Maaden CEO Bob Wilt called the JV “a significant step forward in the development of this important global sector,” emphasizing its alignment with the Kingdom’s economic ambitions.

The structure of the venture ensures U.S. oversight, with MP and the DoW jointly holding a targeted 49% stake and Maaden holding at least 51%. The DoW will provide non-recourse financing for the U.S. share, while MP contributes technical expertise and global sourcing and marketing capabilities. MP is also in discussions to collaborate on magnet manufacturing in Saudi Arabia.

The deal complements MP’s ongoing multibillion-dollar public-private partnership with the DoW in the United States, including major investments in domestic refining, magnet manufacturing, and workforce expansion. Together, these efforts expand MP’s global footprint and deepen U.S.–Saudi economic and security ties while advancing a more resilient rare earth supply chain.

The news comes after a rare earth deal between the U.S. and China has still yet to be reached, as we wrote days ago. 

Despite Washington’s fanfare around the US–China “truce,” there is still no real rare-earth deal. China hasn’t clarified when it will issue the “general licenses” it promised, leaving exporters and buyers in wait-and-see mode. Analysts warn Beijing can use the licensing system as leverage, and, as Alicia Garcia Herrero put it, “The deal is far from done.” The White House may call the pledge a “de facto removal” of China’s curbs, but nothing material has changed.

This continued uncertainty has reinforced US concerns about dependence on Chinese supply chains and likely added momentum to the MP Materials–DoW–Maaden venture. With the China talks dragging on and confidence fading, Washington is accelerating efforts to secure non-Chinese refining capacity—making the Saudi joint venture a timely strategic hedge rather than an isolated project.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 09:50

Futures Rebound After 4 Day Slide With Nvidia Earnings On Deck

After 4 days of steep declines, futures are finally higher ahead of Nvidia earnings, with AI bulls hoping for strong numbers to provide respite from the market selloff. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher and Nasdaq futs gains 0.4%, both bracing for big moves later: NVDA alone has accounted for almost 20% of S&P 500 gains this year. FOMC minutes and a batch of retailer earnings are also due. Pre-mkt, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: NVDA (+1.4%) leads gains while AAPL (-0.1bp) is dragging the other end; semis are higher, too as the AI theme is seeing a pre-mkt bid. Cyclicals are flat versus Defensives with Fins/Materials and HC leading their respective factors higher. The dollar edges higher, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard; USDJPY spiked above 156 as the yen is flooded with devaluation fears again. Treasury 10-year yield dips 2bps to 4.11% even as the yield curve bear steepens. In other assets, Bitcoin’s slide is continuing. According to JPM, the market setup appears to be poised for an ‘Everything Rally’ as the market receives new macro data (Fed Mins and Mtge Apps) and old data (Trade) before the NVDA print. Today's US economic calendar includes the August trade balance (8:30am); the Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stock are mostly higher (Alphabet +1.6%, Tesla +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.05%, Microsoft -0.09%, Apple -0.1%).

• Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) tumbles 37% after the company’s Phase 3 trial of mitapivat in patients 16 and older with sickle-cell disease met one primary endpoint but missed another.
• Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) is up 2% as its plan to restart its shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant is getting $1 billion in backing from the US government as the Trump administration pushes to add more atomic power on the electric grid.
• DoorDash (DASH) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, with the analyst noting that the food delivery company’s annual forecast helped lower expectations, providing flexibility for both long-term investments and upside to estimates.
• Dycom Industries (DY) gains 6% after saying it will acquire Power Solutions, one of the Mid-Atlantic’s largest electrical contractors serving data centers.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) shares are up 11% after the home furniture retailer reported both sales and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat Wall Street’s expectations.
• Lowe’s (LOW) rises 6% as adjusted EPS and gross margin for the third quarter topped expectations, and comparative sales, while short of the consensus estimate, were better than feared after Home Depot’s report on Tuesday.
• Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) sinks 19% on the green hydrogen company’s plans for a private offering of $375 million in convertible senior notes due 2033.
• SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) soars 69% after the WSJ reported that Adobe is nearing a $1.9 billion deal to acquire the company.
• Unity Software (U) gains 8% after the company announced it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite.

In corporate news, South Korean antitrust regulators were said to have visited the Seoul offices of Arm Holdings this week as part of an inquiry into its licensing practices, following a complaint by Qualcomm. The US government is providing $1 billion in backing to Constellation Energy’s plan to restart its Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.

The S&P 500 has lost more than 3% this month as the tech giants that powered much of 2025’s gains came under pressure. Nvidia’s results, due after the close, are seen as a bellwether for whether lofty valuations and massive capital spending in artificial intelligence remain justified.

For Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management, the recent retreat “could easily morph into a 10% to 15% correction” for the S&P 500. “I’m not sure that even very good results from Nvidia would be enough to prevent that,” he said.

Comments at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore are largely cautious, with Goldman Sachs President John Waldron saying the market could pull back further, Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond talking about a “healthy correction” and Algebris Investments’ CEO Davide Serra warning of a “significant correction” for big AI stocks.

Others are staying positive. Fidelity International fund manager Joseph Zhang sees AI spending and usage as “still in the early stage of the party.” As for Nvidia numbers, analysts are estimating more than 50% growth for both net income and sales for the quarter (more in our full preview to follow). And despite all the talk of stretched tech valuations, the stock is now trading at about 29x forward earnings, far below the 10-year average of 35x.

The big question is how the market will interpret the numbers. JPMorgan strategists see room for Nvidia to zoom higher on a beat-and-raise and recommend buying call spreads. Barclays strategists, meanwhile, note the stock has posted negative one-week returns following four of the last five earnings releases. The options markets implies a 7% swing in either direction post-earnings.

Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet and Meta — which account for more than 40% of Nvidia’s sales — are projected to boost combined AI spending 34% to $440 billion over the next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The risk is that such projections could falter if major AI players, including OpenAI, scale back their commitments. Options suggest an earnings-related move of about 7%, signaling the big potential impact on the market if the results deviate.

The recent slide has made the stock more attractive, said Louis Puga, a fund manager at Societe de Gestion Prevoir and holder of Nvidia shares. “Paying 26 times for Nvidia’s next-year profits, sorry but I don’t see a bubble there,” Puga said. “We are like at the start of a gold rush: Nvidia is supplying the shovels and it doesn’t matter who finds the gold.”

Elsewhere, Elon Musk returned to the White House on Tuesday evening in a sign that tensions between Trump and the world’s richest man have thawed. Trump also gave Saudi Arabia’s crown prince a lavish reception in Washington. Trump said he thinks he’s identified his choice to be the next chair of the Fed, while asserting people are holding him back from firing Powell.

Investors will also be watching the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month. The unwinding of expectations for a December interest-rate cut has added to the market malaise, with traders now seeing less than a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction. 

“We expect the minutes to show a deeply divided Fed with concerns over a weaker employment picture, but sticky inflation,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies.

European equities edged higher on Wednesday with media and mining stocks leading gains, while the biggest laggards are utilities and real estate shares. Stoxx 600 gain 0.1% to 562.58 with 222 members down, 370 up, and 8 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Rotork shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since early August, after the valve manufacturer announced a new £50m share buyback and delivered a “very healthy performance” in the four months to the end of October, according to Jefferies
• NKT shares jump as much as 12%, the most since April and to a fresh record high, after the Danish cable manufacturer reported its latest earnings and presented new 2030 targets
• WH Smith shares rise as much as 4.7%, reversing an initial slide, as analysts find some positives amid the publication of an independent review by Deloitte that led to the resignation of CEO Carl Cowling
• SMA Solar surges as much as 13%, hitting the highest since June 2024, as Jefferies upgrades the renewable energy equipment firm to buy, saying it has “weathered the worst”
• European defense companies slipped in Wednesday lunchtime trading as Politico reported that the White House is on the brink of unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia that officials say will bring war with Ukraine to an end
• Enel shares drop as much as 2.4% while Endesa falls as much as 3.1% after the pair were cut to underperform from sector perform at RBC, with expectations “looking too optimistic” and valuations too high
• Kering shares drop as much as 4%, most in nearly two weeks, after Chief Executive Officer Luca de Meo said the company must reduce its reliance on its flagship Gucci brand
• Vivendi slumped on Wednesday after Le Monde reported that billionaire Vincent Bolloré’s eponymous holding company could escape having to pay anything to compensate minority shareholders over the recent split of the group
• Interparfums shares fall as much as 11% to the lowest level since October 2020, after the French maker of personal care products didn’t provide a sales forecast for next year on the back of the current economic and geopolitical backdrop

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, heading for a four-day losing streak as investors stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and lingering doubts over the durability of the AI-driven rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2%, with Samsung, Xiaomi and TSMC among the biggest drags. Losses in South Korea and Australia offset gains in China.  Hang Seng Tech Index falls about 1% and Kospi drifts lower. Japanese and mainland China indexes are broadly steady.

In FX, the dollar edges marginally firmer, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard.

In rates, treasury 10-year yield hovers little changed around 4.11% ahead of Wednesday’s 20-year bond auction and FOMC meeting minutes release; German gilts are about 2bps richer on the day; gilt curve pivots steeper around little-changed 10-year sector. Australian yields ease 1-2 bps across the curve. JGB futures pare losses after 20-year auction draws demand in line with 12-month average. UK front-end outperforms as more easing by Bank of England is priced in after October UK services inflation slowed more than forecast; UK 2-year yields down around 2.5bp. Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year bond sale at 1pm, with $19 billion 10-year TIPS ahead Thursday. WI 20-year yield near 4.705% is ~20bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 1.2bp

In commodities, Brent crude futures are near $64.70; gold rises to near $4,090 an ounce. Bitcoin slides below $91k as investors pulled more than half a billion dollars from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust on Tuesday, the largest single-day outflow since the fund’s debut. Bitcoin has fallen almost 30% from a record high set in October, entering oversold territory on a technical RSI measure.

The US economic calendar includes August trade balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.13%
• VIX -0.8 points at 23.9
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1221.39
• euro -0.1% at $1.1569
• WTI crude -0.6% at $60.39/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said he would formally designate Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally after meeting with Mohammed bin Salman. The countries signed several agreements and made progress on a long-sought nuclear technology-sharing deal. BBG
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials. Axios
• Trump posted "Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine...We MUST have one Federal Standard instead": Truth Social.
• Scott Bessent said Trump will interview top three candidates for Fed chair after Thanksgiving and he may announce his pick before Christmas. BBG
• Foreign holdings of US Treasuries dipped slightly in September from record highs, though biggest holder Japan increased its portfolio. BBG
• Tesla CEO Musk and NVIDIA CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th: Reuters.
• Elon Musk's xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.
• China has reportedly reimposed an import ban on Japanese seafood just weeks after lifting it, and warns Tokyo of ‘further action’ if Takaichi doesn’t budge on Taiwan stand. SCMP
• Japanese government bond yields have hit multiyear highs, driven by fears that the government could unveil a large economic stimulus package that will place even more stress on the country’s ailing fiscal position. WSJ
• Thoughts into NVDA (Goldman) - We have positioning 8 out of 10.  Stock has been consolidating for the better part of ~4-months with the stock at the same levels it was before print in August as investors digest rapidly evolving AI news flow, with an uptick in caution around the theme in recent weeks ...   which points to somewhat cleaner positioning into these set of numbers. Investors likely looking for another beat/raise print vs consensus Revenues of ~$55bn in Oct and ~$62bn in January – for context, Nvidia has delivered more "normalized" beat sizes lately (e.g. beat topline by ~1-3% the last few qtrs). Some investor debate on the likely “incrementality” of this print given recent commentary from NVDA at GTC (e.g. ~$500bn) -- on this point, the stock has only moved +/- ~1-3% (t+1) on 3 of 4 print.
• UK Oct CPI was inline on core at +3.4% (down from +3.5% in Sept) while services ran a bit behind the Street at +4.5% (down from +4.7% and vs. the Street +4.6%), cementing expectations for a BOE rate cut next month. WSJ
• Target trimmed its 2025 profit forecast (TGT -195bps premkt), signaling that its turnaround push is going to take more time as it deals with markdowns and soft demand. Shares fell premarket. Lowe’s reported profit that beat (LOW +558bps premkt), helped by consumer spending on home renovations. BBG
• JPMorgan's 2026 outlook note sees Fed rate cuts supporting global equities and credit, with long-term Treasury yields likely to remain range-bound and multi-asset portfolios set for another year of solid returns.

Trade/Tariffs

• The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
• The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
• Dutch government says it has suspended intervention at Nexperia as a show of goodwill, via Reuters citing sources. We are positive about the measures taken by China to ensure supply of chips. Will continue to engage in constructive talks with China.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings. ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz. Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi's fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again. KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says she held meeting from perspective of maintaining close government and BoJ coordination; reconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, and no change to substance. No specific discussion on FX.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations
• Japan's government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
• Japanese PM Takaichi's advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
• Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are modestly mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, as sentiment attempts to stabilise following recent losses - but ultimately traders remain tentative ahead of FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA earnings. European sectors are mixed. At the top of sectors is Media (+1.5%), Energy (+1.0%) and Food and Beverage (+0.5%).  At the bottom of sectors is Utilities (-0.9%), Banks (-0.6%), and Insurance (-0.4%), once again newsflow has been light to explain the downtick in those sectors.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at ways to cut household energy bills, via Politico citing sources; targeting a cut of GBP 150-170/yr on annual household energy bulls. Cut to VAT on energy bills is also being considered.

FX

• DXY is a little firmer and trades within a narrow, but fairly busy, 99.49 to 99.79 range. Sentiment continues to remain tentative ahead of the key risk events today (NVIDIA/FOMC Minutes) and into September’s NFP report on Thursday. G10s are currently broadly flat/lower vs the USD, with clear underperformance in the Antipodeans. On the Fed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
• EUR is flat/mildly lower vs USD and trades within a narrow 1.1566 to 1.1597 range, stopping just shy of the round 1.1600 mark; a low for the day which marks a fresh WTD trough, but towards the midpoint of last week’s confines. EZ HICP Final Metrics were left unrevised – no move on the report.
• Overnight, USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. Into the morning, the JPY scaled back that strength to trade modestly lower vs the USD, ahead of a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. To put this meeting in some context, Japan’s bond yields hit multiyear highs overnight on fears a roughly JPY 17tln stimulus package under PM Takaichi will strain already weak public finances. She provided some post-meeting remarks, where she highlighted that the meeting focused on maintaining a close BoJ-Government coordination, with the largest bout of pressure for the JPY seen following remarks that there was “no specific discussion on FX”. This broke the Yen out of its overnight range to make a fresh session high above the 156.00 mark - a changing target right now, but high for today 156.29 at time of writing.
• GBP is lower today, in the aftermath of the region’s UK inflation report. Delving into the data, headline CPI Y/Y and M/M printed in-line with expectations, and cooled a touch from the prior whilst Services was cooler-than-expected. Governor Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote last time around, made clear in the statement & press conference that, in terms of the next cut, the BoE generally but Bailey in particular, is highly inflation contingent. As such, the as-expected moderation will push Bailey towards a December cut; however, it is too soon to say for sure, given the uptick in food inflation and the stickiness of various components. Additionally, we await next week's budget and then the November inflation print just before the December announcement for further insight.
• Antipodeans trade lower overnight, amidst the subdued risk tone – price action which has continued to play out into the European session. The Kiwi sits at the foot of the G10 pile, closely joined by the Aussie; NZD/USD is currently at the bottom end of a 0.5622 to 0.5661 range.

Fixed Income

• Gilts opened firmer by a handful of ticks before lifting to a 92.46 peak with gains of 13 at most. Upside spurred given the modest bullish bias in peers early doors and, more pertinently, after the morning's CPI release confirmed that UK inflation peaked across the late Summer. A release that factors in favour of the dovish contingent of the BoE.
• However, the stickiness of several components and uncertainty into the Budget and November inflation report mean that a definitive call for a December cut cannot be made just yet. Explaining the minimal magnitude of the Gilt move, its subsequent paring and why market pricing didn't deviate significantly/lastingly from a c. 80% chance of a cut. Downside was exacerbated after supply, where another sub-3x b/c spurred modest pressure to losses of c. 15 ticks, before slipping further to within reach of 50 of downside ticks at most. Supply aside, no clear fresh driver behind the move, aside from the uptick in the general risk tone (European equities moving a little higher).
• Bunds began on the front foot, and got to gains of eight ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. Thereafter, the complex saw a modest pullback and fell into the red with downside of just over five ticks at most. Specifics for the space light thus far and the docket ahead is devoid of Tier 1 events. As such, we look to US drivers for direction.
• USTs were contained ahead of several key US events, but slipped to troughs alongside a pickup in sentiment and underperformance in Gilts; supply, minutes, speakers and potentially most pertinently NVIDIA earnings all due. For the minutes, we look for insight into how the FOMC aligns itself to the hawkish tone taken by Powell in the press conference; ahead of that, markets ascribe a c. 40% chance of a December cut. Into this, USTs hover around the unchanged mark in a narrow 112-23 to 112-27+ band.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.84x (prev. 2.78x), average yield 4.608% (prev. 4.769%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.6bps).
• Bond dealers have pushed back against Fed officials urging them to use the Standing Repo Facility, Bloomberg reports citing sources; citing stigma over borrowing from the Fed directly, operational and balance sheet concerns as factors.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have begun to pull back slightly and retrace the gains made in Tuesday’s session after consolidating in a tight band throughout the APAC session. WTI and Brent oscillated in narrow USD 60.32-60.70/bbl and USD 64.51-64.78/bbl ranges during APAC trade before falling to a trough of USD 60.00/bbl and USD 64.19/bbl as the European session got underway. Thus far, benchmarks have bounced off session lows as risk tone begins to pick up across global markets. In geopols, Axios reported that the Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. More recently, Brent Jan'26 took a leg lower to fresh troughs on Politico reports that US officials are reportedly nearing a deal to unveiling a major new peace agreement; last at USD 64.15/bbl.
• Spot XAU has seen modest gains to start the European session as markets await for FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings after the closing bell. XAU dipped to a low of USD 4056/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before reversing higher and peaking at USD 4099/oz. The yellow metal pulled back slightly to a low of USD 4078/oz before extending above USD 4100/oz. Currently, XAU is trading at session highs at USD 4113/oz.
• Base metals have traded subdued at the start of the European session amid a lack of catalysts. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.7k-10.77k/t band before extending to a peak of USD 10.78k/t in line with the global risk tone. Broadly speaking the complex, as is the case for markets elsewhere, are waiting for AI behemoth NVIDIA to report Q3 earnings after the closing bell (see board for primer).
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
• EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
• US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski says they will respond to the railway sabotage, not just diplomatically.
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
• US officials are reportedly near to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, via Politico; expected to be agreed by all parties by end-November, possibly as soon as this week.
• US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
• Russia's Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
• Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
• Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
• Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.

Geopolitics: Asia

• The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
• China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations. Suspending talks on resuming imports of Japanese beef.

US event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Nov 14 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: Aug Trade Balance, est. -60.4b, prior -78.31b
• 2:00 pm: Oct 29 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Central Bank Speakers

• 10:00 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Bank Regulation
• 12:45 pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• 2:00 pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2:00 pm: Fed’s Williams Delivers Welcome Remarks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The selloff has showed no sign of letting up in the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since August, whilst futures are down another -0.21% this morning. Several factors are driving the losses, but the biggest have been concerns about AI valuations, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) edging closer to technical correction territory, having now shed -7.59% since its October peak. Moreover, sentiment took another hit from weak data releases and earnings reports, which further dampened investors’ optimism. Indeed, there were mounting signs of financial stress across the board, with the VIX index of volatility closing at 24.69 (+2.31pts), whilst US IG spreads (+1bp) reached their widest level since June.

Those AI concerns were front and centre, which comes at a pivotal moment given Nvidia (-2.81%) are reporting their own earnings results after the US close tonight. For context, Nvidia’s shares are now down -12.4% from their peak on October 29, albeit still at a level that was seen as recently as October 16. So that’s the biggest fall in its share price since the Liberation Day turmoil earlier this year. Interestingly, it was announced yesterday that Nvidia would invest up to $10bn in Anthropic, with Microsoft investing up to $5bn, in a deal that will see Anthropic purchase $30bn of Azure compute capacity. But unlike several recent AI deals which led to an immediate rally, there wasn’t a reaction in the share price of either following the news, with Microsoft (-2.70%) also underperforming on the day. So it goes to show how sentiment has turned more negative in the last few weeks, with the circular AI deals being treated with increasing caution as the conversation around a potential bubble has gathered pace.

In the meantime, that negative mood was exacerbated by several other catalysts. First, the crypto losses didn’t help, and yesterday saw Bitcoin briefly move below $90,000 on an intraday basis for the first time since April. Admittedly, it managed to recover by the close +0.68% higher on the day, but Bitcoin is still down -26% since its October peak, and the fear is that if retail investors are suffering crypto losses, then that could force them to sell other assets (like equities) to meet margin calls, thus exacerbating the broader selling pressure.

Alongside that, weak data and earnings continued to hit risk appetite. For instance, the ADP’s latest weekly employment estimate showed private payrolls were down -2.5k per week over the four weeks ending November 1. So that cemented fears that the labour market was struggling to hold up, although we should get a better picture tomorrow from the September jobs report. Otherwise, we also heard from Home Depot (-6.02%), whose shares fell back after they cut their outlook for the full-year, which in turn added to broader fears about the consumer outlook. So collectively, the drip-feed of more negative headlines helped to push risk assets down throughout the day.

Against that backdrop, the selloff continued across several asset classes. So the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posted a 4th consecutive decline, meaning it closed -3.97% beneath its recent peak. In fact, that marks the biggest peak-to-trough decline for the index since May, back when it was still recovering from the Liberation Day turmoil. Meanwhile in Europe, there were also heavy losses, with the STOXX 600 (-1.72%) posting its biggest daily decline since August, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.74%), the CAC 40 (-1.86%) and the FTSE MIB (-2.12%). That said, given how much the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) were responsible for the US equity declines, it’s worth noting that small-caps had a relatively good day, with the Russell 2000 actually up by +0.31%. Likewise, the S&P 500 itself also saw a divergent performance, with almost half of its constituents rising despite the overall losses, leaving the equal-weighted S&P 500 down just -0.02%.

Given the growing magnitude of the selloff, investors moved to price in a stronger chance of Fed rate cuts again. For instance, the likelihood of a December rate cut moved back up to 45%, having been at 41% the day before. And in turn, that meant front-end Treasury yields rallied, with the 2yr yield (-3.7bps) falling to 3.57%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) also saw a decent decline to 4.11%. Interestingly, President Trump said on the next Fed Chair that “I think I already know my choice”, although we’re uncertain as to who that is. According to Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is considered the favourite with a 46% chance, and he’s currently the Director of the National Economic Council. He’s followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who’s given a 19% chance.

Meanwhile in Europe, attention will be back on the UK this morning, as the CPI release for October is out shortly after we go to press. There’s also just a week left until the government’s Budget announcement, and our UK economist published a preview yesterday looking at what to expect (link here). He thinks that this will be a second historic tax-raising budget, with Chancellor Reeves delivering nearly £35bn in fiscal consolidation. There’s also a Budget survey aimed at market participants asking what you’re expecting, which you can fill in here. Ahead of that, gilt yields mostly moved higher yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +1.8bps to 4.55%. But they underperformed their European counterparts, with 10yr bund yields (-0.6bps) coming down slightly.

Overnight in Asia, the equity declines have mostly continued, with losses for the Nikkei (-0.16%), the Hang Seng (-0.69%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.16%) and the KOSPI (-0.96%). Meanwhile in Japan, there’ve been fresh losses for JGBs, with long-end yields up to multi-year highs this morning. For instance, the 10yr JGB yield (+1.8bps) has rise to 1.75%, which is its highest level since 2008, and the 30yr yield (+2.9bps) is up to 3.32%, its highest since that maturity was first issued. The moves come as investors anticipate further issuance as new PM Sanae Takaichi is expected to unveil a stimulus plan. And looking forward, US and European equity futures are pointing towards further declines, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.21%) and the DAX (-0.17%) both lower this morning.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s October meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Miran, Barkin and Williams. Data releases will include the UK CPI report for October.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 08:43