Americans Are Getting Behind On Their Debts At A Very Frightening Pace

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

U.S. households are now 18.79 trillion dollars in debt. In 1980, U.S. households were just 1.4 trillion dollars in debt. Over the past several decades we have witnessed a household debt binge that is unlike anything that we have ever witnessed in our entire history. But if consumers could handle that debt load, there wouldn’t be such a high level of concern. Unfortunately, just like we witnessed prior to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Americans are getting behind on their debts at a staggering rate. This isn’t going to end well, but of course many of you know that already.

The latest numbers published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show that delinquency rates for auto loans, student loans and credit card debt have all soared to very alarming levels…

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) published new data showing that the share of Americans behind on a range of household consumer debts reached all-time highs in the first quarter of 2026. As the nation hurdles toward an historical record of $19 trillion in total household debt, Americans saw the highest rates of auto loan delinquency that FRBNY has ever recorded, rates of credit card delinquency near those last seen at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, and student loan delinquency at its worst since before the COVID-era payment pause.

Thanks to our accelerating cost of living crisis, most U.S. households are barely scraping by from month to month these days.

So if you are feeling financially squeezed right now, I want you to know that you are not alone.

As financial pressure rises, an increasing number of households are reaching a breaking point.

As a result, we are beginning to witness a tsunami of delinquencies…

While families took on more debt, they also fell behind. Credit card delinquency rates are now the highest they have been in 16 years (13.1 percent). Overall student loan delinquency rates soared to 10.3 percent, the highest recorded since 2020. Significantly more student loan borrowers are also entering serious delinquency, with their loans more than 90 days past due (10.9 percent) compared to the first quarter of 2025 (8.0 percent). In fact, delinquency rates have increased for all credit types tracked by the FRBNY since the final quarter of 2025.

Those figures are deeply troubling.

And I haven’t even mentioned mortgages yet.

In April, there were more than 42,000 foreclosure filings…

New data released by real estate analytics firm ATTOM found that 42,430 properties nationwide received foreclosure filings in April 2026, including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions.

Is that a high number?

Yes, it is.

In fact, it is 18 percent higher than last year’s very high figure for the month of April…

Foreclosure filings across the US have surged 18 percent compared to last year in a troubling sign that mounting financial pressure is beginning to hit homeowners.

It is a red flag that is reminiscent of the foreclosure spike in the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

Many of you clearly remember that we experienced a growing wave of foreclosures well before the financial markets started to crash in late 2008.

It was obvious that the housing bubble was crashing way in advance, and we can see the same thing happening again.

In Seattle, the number of homes listed for sale is nearly twice the usual figure, and prices are beginning to fall…

There are 8,630 homes listed for sale across the Seattle metro right now. In a normal April, there are about 4,600.

Nick Gerli, CEO of the real estate analytics firm Reventure, posted that data on Sunday on X. His read: Seattle’s housing market is going through a historic inventory shock, driven by layoffs, historic unaffordability, and outbound migration. King County values are already down 2.5% year over year. Prices are falling, and a typical listing is still right around $1 million, with a monthly mortgage payment of $7,000 to $8,000. That’s $84,000 to $96,000 a year just on the mortgage. The median household income across the Seattle metro is about $112,000 before taxes. After federal and state deductions, that household is taking home somewhere around $85,000 to $90,000. The mortgage alone consumes virtually all of it.

The market is cracking. Regular people still can’t afford to buy.

Yes, the market in Seattle is most definitely cracking.

And the same thing could be said about dozens of other markets all over the nation.

It is inevitable that home prices will fall because we have reached a point where most of the population simply cannot afford a typical mortgage payment.

In our “K-shaped economy”, those at the very top have been thriving while the vast majority of the country has been deeply struggling.

Sadly, there are a lot of young adults out there that have simply stopped trying.

This is particularly true for young men, and the numbers clearly show that millions upon millions of them have chosen to drop out of the labor force…

The Department of Labor keeps careful track of employment and the demographics thereof. Their latest report on men in the labor force is both mysterious and deeply alarming. It turns out that the labor force is missing about 7 million men who would otherwise be working. Close to a third of working-age men have vanished from the labor force.

The labor force participation rate among “prime age men,” age 25 to 54, in the 1950s approached 100 percent. Now it is 89 percent, meaning roughly 11 percent are not in the labor force (neither working nor looking for work).

Among all men over 16 years of age, the rate is a devastatingly low 66 percent, so about one-third are gone. Among U.S.-born men, nearly 22 percent are gone.

This is really quite shocking.

We really do have a national crisis on our hands.

The number of homeless Americans is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

The number of drug addicts in our country is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

So many people have been falling through the cracks in the system, and it seems to get worse with each passing year.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of households are falling behind on their debts and America’s middle class is steadily shrinking.

All of the long-term trends are taking us in the wrong direction, and it appears that our economic problems will only accelerate during the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:20

Memorial Day Gas Demand Surge Collides With Hormuz Shock As $5 Demand-Destruction Line Nears

Drivers heading into Memorial Day weekend are set to face some of the highest regular gasoline prices at the pump in years.

With the U.S. national average sitting at $4.53 per gallon (according to AAA data) and no resolution yet on a U.S.-Iran peace deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pump prices risk rising even higher into the holiday weekend as the summer driving season begins.

Let's start with the chart of the day: AAA retail gas prices in the U.S. on a seasonal basis closely track the 2022 run, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict was in its first several months.

Gas prices in 2022 did not top out until mid-June.

The impending problem, with no near-term Hormuz resolution, as JPMorgan analysts recently warned, is that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked into June.

Former CIA analysts and current RBC commodities head Helima Croft told clients days ago that she is "very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future."

AAA Retail Gas Price Map

For Memorial Day 2026, AAA forecasts around 39.1 million Americans will travel by car, representing 87% of all holiday travelers. That will create a meaningful near-term lift in gas demand, especially from Thursday through Monday.

EIA notes that gas demand typically rises into the summer driving season, while last year's Memorial Day period coincided with the highest weekly implied gas demand of 2025 up to that point.

So, in an already tight gas market, a busy Memorial Day driving weekend can certainly pull more barrels through the system, support pump prices, and may only lead to higher prices if no Hormuz resolution is found in the near term. The demand destruction level sits around $5.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:40

Third Iran-Linked 'Shadow Fleet' Tanker Seized By US Navy Off South Asia

Update(1500ET): A WSJ report Tuesday afternoon has revealed that the US seized an "Iran-linked ship" in the Indian Ocean overnight, which had not previously been revealed, at a moment President Trump is threatening to resume airstrikes on Iran, but has given a few more 'days' for Tehran to come to the table.

"The tanker, called Skywave, was sanctioned by the US in March for its role in transporting Iranian oil," the report says. These kind of high seas interdictions are happening with semi-regularity at this point, especially in waters of south and southeast Asia. The report details:

Ship-tracking data showed it sailing just west of Malaysia on Tuesday after transiting the Malacca Strait. The ship was likely loaded with more than a million barrels of crude at Iran’s Kharg Island in February, according to brokers and data from Lloyds List Intelligence. 

It marks at least the third time the U.S. has seized an oil tanker in connection with its crackdown of Iran-linked shadow-fleet vessels.

Meanwhile, also on Tuesday VP JD Vance had a meeting with the president related to the Iran crisis, and engaged in another testy exchange with the media:

COLLINS: You last week denied that the president said he was not taking Americans' financial situation into consideration when he's making decisions on the Iran war. He's since said it again, calling it a 'perfect statement.'

VANCE: See Kaitlan, what you did is you… pic.twitter.com/FFy9MTUkQ9

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 19, 2026

*  *  *

Update(1140ET): President Trump has on Tuesday while fielding questions from reporters repeated his line that Iran is 'begging' for a deal. "They're begging to make a deal. I hope we don't have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit. We may have to give them another big hit. You'll know very soon."

His threat to give them another "big hit" was coupled with the assertion that he was just one hour away from ordering new attacks on Iran Monday, but was asked by Gulf allies to given diplomacy just a little longer:

Trump: "I was an hour away" from striking Iran on Monday.

There was also the below moment where he again talked timeline, saying he's ready to resume military action in a few 'days' if Iran doesn't comply:

Reporter: How many days does Iran have to come to the table?

Trump: Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week. A limited period of time. pic.twitter.com/yAAfv2jR20

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2026

Iran for its part says it stands ready to "confront aggression" and remains in a high state of military alert.

Also, tensions with nearby Gulf states are still soaring, and amid reports that drones have recently been launched from Iraqi territory - likely the work of Shia paramilitary organizations which are closely allied with Iran.

(Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates' Defence Ministry said on Tuesday that a drone that caused a fire at its nuclear power plant on Sunday had been launched from Iraq.

Emirati officials have said the UAE has the full right to respond to such "terrorist attacks". https://t.co/Skv8LEkkRy

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) May 19, 2026

*  *  *

In a huge and unexpected announcement, amid stalled US-Iran peace talks - which have proven a failure and illusive thus far, NATO now says it could deploy military assets to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Per breaking newswires Tuesday late morning:

NATO TO CONSIDER HORMUZ DEPLOYMENT IF STRAIT NOT OPEN BY JULY

President Trump has continuously chastised the NATO alliance for being largely bankrolled by Washington but at the same time fence-sitting when it comes to forming a coalition to patrol and reopen the vital energy transit waterway. Oil plummeted on the initial headline, seeing in it a positive for the potential that crude transit in the Persian Gulf could again be opened up soon:

And Bloomberg freshly reports:

NATO is discussing the possibility of helping ships pass through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if the waterway isn’t reopened by early July, according to a senior official in the military alliance.

The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn’t yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8.

But July feels very far away at this point, and anything could happen between now and then, as Washington continues to threaten renewed military action, and Iran says it remains on high alert.

NATO defense chiefs are meeting this week, where also high on the agenda will be the following:

At this week's summit, military chiefs from all 32 member states will examine the impact that consistent rapid consumption may have on NATO's collective capabilities and deterrent power as Russia continues to threaten allies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:04

Nigeria Needs New Export Markets As UAE's Exit Rattles OPEC

By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com

Nigeria should market its crude oil to new buyers as the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC is dislocating the balance that the cartel and the OPEC+ group have been seeking for years, according to Wole Ogunsanya, chairman of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN).

The official urged Nigeria’s state oil and gas firm NNPC and other producers of Nigerian crude to tap new markets.

“When OPEC gives you a quota, it’s left for you to find who is going to buy it,” Nigerian outlet This Day quoted Ogunsanya as saying.

“And we have one of the best crude oil in the world. So we need NNPC and all producers to market Nigerian production,” the official added.

The abrupt exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC and OPEC+ would disrupt the balance the groups have been keeping for years, according to Ogunsanya.

“The decision by the UAE, which they have a sovereign right to do, is for their country’s interest. Our opinion is that it’s going to cause a dislocation of that equilibrium, the ability of OPEC and OPEC+, to manage the price of oil,” he added.

The UAE quit OPEC effective May 1 to pursue its national interests after years of quarreling with fellow cartel members over output quotas and their share of total production capacity.

For years, the UAE has been working to boost its crude oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027. The UAE insisted that it should be allowed in the OPEC and OPEC+ production deals to actually use more of its growing spare capacity. The country, alongside Saudi Arabia, is one of the few in the region – and the world – that held spare production capacity before the Middle East conflict began.

Nigeria, for its part, has struggled to pump to its quota in recent years as sabotage often led to force majeure at major export streams. However, with a recent crackdown on oil theft and sabotage in the Niger Delta, Nigeria has managed to increase crude production and aims for further growth by 2030.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 15:00

The Democrats Are About To Destroy John Fetterman

John Fetterman has become the most interesting politician in America, and the Democratic Party’s most uncomfortable mirror. His willingness to speak honestly, vote his conscience, and refuse to define himself purely in opposition to President Donald Trump has made him a hero to some and a traitor to others. 

Back in March, he declared the party had no real leader except Trump Derangement Syndrome. Democrats, according to Fetterman, are so consumed with opposing President Donald Trump that they've failed to construct a coherent agenda of their own. That's not a fringe critique. It's a fairly accurate description of where the opposition party stands as we head toward the 2026 midterms. 

Last week, Sen. John Fetterman wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post making the case that he'd make a terrible Republican, and he's right. He's pro-choice, firmly behind legal marijuana, a committed supporter of LGBT rights, a staunch defender of SNAP benefits, and a reliable friend to organized labor. His overall voting record is overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic caucus.

“It wasn’t long ago when Democrats wanted a secure border. I voted on an immigration bill in 2024 to make sure an influx the size of Pittsburgh doesn’t come through the border like it did under the previous administration,” he wrote. “I have co-sponsored legislation to stop the flow of fentanyl. I was the lead Democrat on the Laken Riley Act, and I strongly believe that someone who comes here illegally and commits a violent crime should be deported. Full stop.”

He noted how his party used to oppose government shutdowns because they put “American livelihoods at risk” and held workers “hostage.” Yet, he stood alone as a Democrat when he voted to end his party’s recent shutdowns, saying he “took no pleasure in voting against my party” but felt that keeping “the lights on” for TSA, homeland security, airports, and “everyday Americans” mattered more than “partisan games.” 

As far as he’s concerned, his occasional departures on border security, crime, and Israel are a sign of his party becoming more extreme, not him becoming more conservative.

In a recent conversation on Reason's Reason Interview podcast with Nick Gillespie, Fetterman was asked to reflect on how his politics had changed since he backed Bernie Sanders in 2016. His answer cut to the heart of the Democratic Party's ongoing identity crisis. "Well, I mean, you know, in 2016, it was much more about the minimum wage and some other very basic kinds of things," he said. "And now that's just turned into much more standing with Cuba, standing with Venezuela, standing with the Iranian regime, and turned that into much more becoming more increasingly anti-American for me. So my views really haven't changed that much." The punchline came shortly after: "What's really changed is the party."

That is a sitting Democratic senator describing his own party's base as "increasingly anti-American,” and describes himself as lonely inside the party he still agrees with over 90 percent of the time. And how has the party responded to one of its more prominent voices offering this kind of candid self-assessment? 

By quietly beginning to show him the door.

A report from Punchbowl News last month made it quite clear how his party sees him. Pennsylvania Democrats on Capitol Hill wouldn't commit to supporting a Fetterman reelection bid, and none would explicitly endorse him. Rep. Brendan Boyle, who is rumored to be eyeing a 2028 Senate run himself, said he'd "be very surprised if [Fetterman] ran in the Democratic primary." Rep. Chris Deluzio, also said to be interested in the seat, acknowledged "serious disagreements" with Fetterman over the war in Iran, before adding a diplomatic "we'll see what comes after '26." Rep. Summer Lee simply said of Fetterman seeking reelection, “Up to him. At his own peril."

That's the kind of language you use for someone the party has already written off. And clearly they have. He still votes with Democrats more than 90 percent of the time. And yet Pennsylvania Democrats won't even give him a courtesy endorsement for a future Senate bid. 

Democratic voters in Pennsylvania aren’t any more forgiving.

A February Quinnipiac poll found that Fetterman sits at 46 percent approval among Pennsylvania voters overall. This isn’t great, but the partisan breakdown is most interesting: he’s underwater 62%–22% among Democrats, while running 74%–18% among Republicans. 

As far as the party's progressive base goes, anything less than 100% compliance isn't enough, especially when you break with the party on issues like Israel, immigration, or anything that can be characterized as insufficiently hostile to the right. Fetterman's independent streak might help him win a general election, but it won’t help him win a Democratic primary. 

That's the trap, and he appears to know it.

He's made it quite clear he won't become a Republican. His op-ed was practically a manifesto on the subject. But a man who describes himself as "lonely" inside his own party, who watches that party signal it won't back him for reelection, has a big decision to make. Will he try to win reelection as a Democrat, become an independent, or not run at all? One thing is for sure: his future inside the Democratic Party is already closed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:40

Iran's Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65% As U.S. Naval Blockade Bites

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The volumes of Iranian oil stored at tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz have jumped in recent weeks as Iran considers ways to circumvent the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at choking Iranian oil exports.

The number of tankers laden with crude but sitting in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz has jumped since the U.S. initiated in the middle of April a naval blockade to prevent Iranian oil exports and force Tehran into a deal, a Financial Times analysis of shipping and satellite imagery data showed on Tuesday.

Data from the U.S.-based non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) showed that the number of tankers in the Gulf laden with Iranian crude and petrochemicals has now jumped to 49, up from 29 before the U.S. blockade began on April 13.

Separately, UANI and FT have identified more than a dozen tankers clustered near the Iranian port Chabahar outside the Strait of Hormuz but within the line of the U.S. blockade.

Ship-tracking and maritime intelligence analyses pointed three weeks ago that Iranian tankers laden with oil were loitering in a cluster near the port of Chabahar. The cluster signals that Iran continues to load oil on Iranian tankers that are trying to leave the Middle East region. On the other hand, the piling up of ships outside the Strait of Hormuz but inside the U.S. blockade line suggests that the American interception of vessels is working.

Tanker Tally at Iran’s Kharg Island Hits Post-Blockade Peak: BBG

Running out of tankers to store oil.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 18, 2026

About 42 million barrels of Iranian crude are now sitting on Iranian tankers, many of these old vessels, in the Middle East, a 65% surge compared to the beginning of the war, per Kpler estimates cited by FT.

Loadings at Kharg Island, Iran’s key export port, have come to a standstill, maritime intelligence firm Windward said in a report last week.

“At the same time, dark tanker concentrations across northern Hormuz, eastern Hormuz, and Chabahar indicate that Iran is increasingly relying on protected holding zones to buffer export capacity and manage outbound flows,” Windward’s analysts said.

“Persistent ship-to-ship transfer activity, bunkering operations, and prolonged dark anchorage behavior reinforce indications that covert cargo-transfer and sanctions evasion operations are expanding inside Iranian territorial waters.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 14:20

Iran Now Has More Incentive To Resist US Demands, Even If War Restarts: Israeli Think Tank

At this point even hawkish Israeli think tank pundits are increasingly admitting that Iran currently has certain leverage and an edge when it comes to dealing with the United States, and the so far stalled and failed peace talks to end the war.

President Trump has just described that he called off planned renewed airstrikes on Iran, at the request of Gulf allies - who claim efforts toward getting back to the table and reaching a deal are close, despite that Iran's position on its nuclear program has not budged. 

Shutterstock/US Navy

When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change (Venezuela-style); however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma - just as critics loudly warned would happen.

President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight - he can appear 'weak' through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home. In such situations each new and 'next' military action which gets presented as a 'way forward' actually often serves to make a conflict more unpredictable, sinking the US into a deeper escalation trap.

And now enter aforementioned Israeli think tank hawks. Raz Zimmt, the Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), has pointed out that Trump's pull-back from 'planned' new airstrikes will leave Tehran leaders with some clear conclusions. It should be remembered that the INSS, which is affiliated with Tel Aviv University, is Israel's most premier defense establishment think tank.

"Whether or not it was indeed requested to do so by the rulers of the Gulf states, Tehran draws two main conclusions this morning from the president's statement," Zimmt, whose work is often promoted by Axios Barak Ravid, began in a thread on X (machine translated).

Here's how the Israel-based pundit lays it out (emphasis ZH):

A. It has once again been proven that Trump is not interested in war. From Tehran's perspective, this does not mean there will be no war, and therefore it is preparing for a resumption of hostilities. However, this strengthens its perception that the fear in the US and the Gulf of the consequences of renewing the campaign outweighs the fear in Iran.

B. It is impossible (and this too, of course, is not a new insight in Tehran) to rely on any word coming from Trump's mouth or keyboard in his endless frenzy. Therefore, not only must it refrain from agreeing to concessions that amount to capitulation to US demands—for example, forgoing nuclear capabilities, such as enrichment infrastructure, and not just the products of the program, such as uranium enriched to 60%—but it must continue to insist, already in the first stage, on security and economic guarantees: a complete end to the war, easing of sanctions or unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, and management arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz that express recognition of Iran's control over the strait. And the problem is that it is doubtful whether this perception will change even in a scenario of renewed hostilities, unless a way is found to incorporate within its framework an action or actions that succeed in denying or significantly weakening one of the two cards in Iran's hand: control of Hormuz and the nuclear assets.

President Trump on Monday actually said "hopefully, maybe forever" when asked about the decision to delay the Iran attack. This was certainly not missed in Tehran.

A Trump-Iran pattern?

• Wed: Iran wants a deal. They called us
• Thu: We are looking at proposals
• Fri: We might be close. Very close
• Sat.: Iran knows what to do
• Sun: OBLITERATION. TOTAL. COMPLETE. They have 24 hrs.
• Mon. : The storm is coming
• Tue.: I’m giving it…

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) May 18, 2026

Meanwhile, as of Tuesday Reuters is reporting that the five key elements of Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war include the following:

• US troops leaving areas close to Iran
• The US paying war reparations
• Lifting sanctions on Iran
• Release Iran's frozen assets
• Ending the US blockade

And so both sides continue to insist on not moving away from their initial demands and conditions, with barely any compromise visible, in a perpetuation of the zero sum game and standoff, also as the Hormuz Strait continues to be de facto blocked to the vast majority of maritime transit.

*  *  *

Latest Tuesday developments via Newsquawk...

• US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
• US President Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
• US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
• US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
• Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
• US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
• Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran's forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
• Iranian Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran's armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
• Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon's warning that Iran is strengthening its air defenses, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
• Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of "unusual silence" from global maritime and insurance authorities.
• Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 13:20

New York Governor Signs Bills To Preserve Mandatory Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has signed legislation to preserve vaccine requirements for children.

Hochul, on May 15, signed two bills that decouple New York’s vaccine requirements from the federal government, after the Trump administration rolled back recommendations for hepatitis B and other vaccines.

“When public health comes under attack by an anti-science administration, New York fights back,” Hochul, a Democrat, said in a statement.

She added that the legislation “protects access to lifesaving vaccines for New Yorkers of all ages.”

One bill, Assembly Bill 10711, removes language about vaccines needing to be approved by federal regulators. Instead, it says that children must receive vaccines against measles, hepatitis B, and other diseases “in accordance with regulations issued by the commissioner of health of New York.”

Assembly Bill 10710, the other piece of legislation, requires health insurers to cover vaccines recommended by New York’s health commissioner, even if the shots are not recommended by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New York has, in the past, only mandated vaccines approved and recommended by federal health agencies.

“Vaccines remain one of the greatest public health tools in history, protecting individuals, families, and entire communities from serious and preventable diseases,” New York Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald said in a statement.

“At a time when misinformation is undermining confidence in science, this legislation reinforces New York State’s commitment to following trusted medical guidance and keeping New Yorkers healthy.”

The Trump administration has narrowed its recommendations for vaccines against several diseases, including COVID-19, hepatitis B, and rotavirus.

The biggest changes came after President Donald Trump issued an order directing officials to review recommendations from other countries and update U.S. recommendations as appropriate in light of the results of the review.

A federal judge in mid-March blocked the updates, concluding that officials did not follow proper procedure when altering the vaccine recommendations.

The Trump administration has appealed.

New York Democratic lawmakers who authored or voted for the bills Hochul signed hailed the development.

“In an era where federal health officials are undermining scientific integrity and sowing skepticism about lifesaving vaccines, New York is making the conscious choice to champion our medical professionals and reaffirm this state’s commitment to the evidence-based practices that have safeguarded communities for generations,” New York Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said in a statement.

Children’s Health Defense, an organization founded by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was among the groups that opposed the legislation.

Michael Kane, director of advocacy for Children’s Health Defense, told The Epoch Times previously that one of the bills would enable the state to require experimental vaccines, as it removed language stating that vaccines needed federal approval.

“It would also allow for foreign entities to determine what vaccines our children must take,” Kane said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 13:00

Flatbed Truck Rates Hit New Highs As These Drivers Fuel Boom

Flatbed trucking conditions have never looked stronger, with spot rates surging to record highs amid a mix of tightening capacity and rising industrial freight demand.

"Flatbed trucking rates have hit a new all-time high as industrial demand and a crackdown on bad actors continue to shape trucking economics," said FreightWaves founder Craig Fuller.

Fuller added, "It is a great time to be a compliant trucker in America."

There are two drivers behind why U.S. flatbed spot trucking rates (via SONAR Flatbed Truckload Index) have surged to $4.21 per mile, well above the index’s $2.87 average and to record highs:

• Data center and AI infrastructure boom, which is driving higher volumes of steel, transformers, generators, construction materials, and other open-deck freight;

• And the crackdown on foreign truck drivers, which is shrinking the available labor pool and tightening capacity further, is creating a more favorable pricing backdrop for American owner-operators.

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that freight brokers now face state-law negligent hiring claims when they hire unsafe trucking firms that later cause crashes. This came after a series of deadly crashes nationwide, with some of these drivers being illegal aliens who were unable to read English.

BREAKING: 3 kiIIed in California by an illegal alien truck driver, Jashanpreet Singh. Singh entered in 2022, was released by Biden.

pic.twitter.com/csrKmjTRsD

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 23, 2025

There are reports that freight brokers are no longer hiring foreign truck drivers.

It took less than 24 hours for brokers to tighten the belt after the Supreme Court ruled that brokers could be held liable for carrier accidents WOW!

#Truckers #trucking #truckinglife @topfans pic.twitter.com/MEnvzcKkar

— GRANDPA’s FREE ADVICE (@GOP_is_Gutless) May 16, 2026

The combination of surging industrial demand and the reduction in foreign drivers is finally driving higher rates after mom-and-pop American truckers endured years of overcapacity that pushed rates to nearly unaffordable levels.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:40

US Dept Of War Suspends Permanent Joint Board On Defense With Canada

Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge,

Remarkably, many news articles are citing confusion in trying to understand why U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby, announced the suspension of U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.

However, the announcement comes immediately after his meeting with U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon and the comment, “we’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense.”

The issue, as outlined by Undersecretary Colby, centers around Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent statements in antagonism toward the U.S., a public announcement that Canada would not be purchasing U.S. military equipment and the biggest issue of all, that Canada is not living up to the NATO defense spending agreements.

It was in December of 2024, immediately after the November election where Donald Trump won, when then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago for dinner with President Trump and told him there’s no way that Canada could meet their NATO obligations. 

Canada had relied on the USA to provide all national defense and was 16th in defense spending at 1.1% of GDP. {CITATION}

The issue of NATO compliance was part of a larger discussion around trade imbalances, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property conflicts and legislative hurdles that Canada used as a crutch to retain economic benefit without reciprocity.

Trudeau was arguing that Canada could not change all the points of conflict, drop their non-tariff barriers, comply with NATO demands and simultaneously get into total alignment with the USMCA trade compact (CUSMA to Canada), because their climate policies did not support or match the heavy industrial processing capabilities of both the United States and Mexico.

This triggered President Trump to respond with the 51st state, notation. 

Essentially, if you cannot be a partner with equal capabilities; and if you need to retain structural economic dependency; then Canada should just become a 51st state of the USA.

Since that time, things went downhill quickly.  Instead of trying to find ways to eliminate points of conflict, Prime Minister Mark Carney began a campaign of aggressive anti-Trump narrative distribution in order to maximize domestic political benefits.

President Trump then turned toward Mexico and began working with USTR Jamieson Greer to construct what is essentially a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Mexico.

The administration began ignoring Canada, planning instead to announce the upcoming dissolution of the USMCA and then force Canada to negotiate a bilateral.  A jilted Canada then began doubling and tripling down on the anti-Trumpism, with Carney saying the era of trade between the USA and Canada is over.

Carney then reached out to Europe and China for trade replacement value and began making announcements about no longer purchasing U.S. manufactured fighter jets and military hardware.

U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby meets with U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, and obviously the NATO stuff is just the straw that ended the U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.  Not a complicated timeline to figure out.

WASHINGTON – […] “A strong Canada that prioritizes hard power over rhetoric benefits us all,” Colby said.

“Unfortunately, Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments. DoW is pausing the Permanent Joint Board on Defense to reassess how this forum benefits shared North American defense.

“We can no longer avoid the gaps between rhetoric and reality. Real powers must sustain our rhetoric with shared defense and security responsibilities,” he continued. “Delivering on shared continental defense begins by recognizing our shared geography. Only by investing in our own defense capabilities will Americans and Canadians be safe, secure, and prosperous.”

It’s unclear why Colby made the announcement on Monday, given that Carney’s Davos speech was months ago.

Minutes before the announcement, Colby posted a photograph of himself meeting with the U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon, though he did not specify when the meeting took place.

“We’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense,” he wrote along with the photo. 

Carney’s relationship with President Donald Trump has fractured in recent months over several different issues, including the former’s address at Davos. (read more)

Every trade and economic associated agency within the Trump administration is in alignment, and the elimination of the USMCA with Canada is clearly at the end of this path. 

However, if you can find one in one-hundred Canadians who understand or accept this destination, I would be surprised. 

A mass formation psychosis has fallen upon the land of Canada, and the overwhelming majority of Canadians just repeat, “Trump bad.” 

It’s weird.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:20

Nickel Jumps As Indonesian Output Cut Stokes Supply Fears

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange surged as much as 2.6% to $19,050 a ton after Shanghai Metals Market said upwards of 15% of high-grade nickel pig iron capacity at Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park will undergo rotational maintenance in the coming months, according to Bloomberg.

Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park is one of the most important nickel-processing hubs in the world and serves a large cluster of smelters that produce nickel pig iron, a key input for stainless steel production.

Indonesia dominates global nickel supply, producing 2.6 million metric tons of nickel in 2025 out of a global total of 3.9 million tons, accounting for roughly two-thirds of global mine production.

So, the earlier news from SMM indicating a 10% to 15% reduction in NPI output from Weda Bay Industrial Park in the coming months, building on existing NPI reductions in March and April due to lower ore supplies and high costs, has easily sparked supply concerns on the LME ...

Nickel is extremely valuable and a critical industrial metal in the era of electrification and data center buildouts:

• Stainless steel, by far the largest demand center, where nickel improves corrosion resistance, strength, and heat tolerance.

• EV and energy-storage batteries, especially nickel-rich lithium-ion chemistries that increase energy density and driving range.

• Aerospace and military superalloys, including jet-engine turbine blades and high-temperature gas turbines.

• Industrial alloys, plating, and catalysts, used across machinery, chemicals, and corrosion-resistant equipment.

Let's not forget that sulfuric acid prices have surged amid the Hormuz disruption. This industrial chemical is used in nickel production, especially in Indonesia's battery-grade nickel supply chain.

The line in the sand for LME nickel futures is $20,000.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 12:05

Supreme Court Directs Lower Courts To Reexamine Decisions In Voting Rights Act Cases

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court on May 18 ordered lower courts to reconsider rulings in two redistricting cases that concern whether private individuals may sue to enforce a federal law that bans discriminatory voting practices.

The court directed the lower courts to take another look at the cases from Mississippi and North Dakota in light of its recent landmark ruling limiting the use of race in redistricting efforts.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented from both new rulings.

In Louisiana v. Callais, a majority of the court had said April 29 that race may not be the predominant, overriding reason for how congressional district lines are drawn. The case focused on the Pelican State’s decision to add a majority-black district after a lower court said omitting the district would violate the Section 2 nondiscrimination provisions of the federal Voting Rights Act.

On Monday, the nation’s highest court summarily disposed of the two cases, State Board of Election Commissioners v. Mississippi State Conference of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), and Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians v. Howe, in unsigned orders. The court did not explain its decisions.

Lawyers call this process, which disposes of cases without holding an oral argument, GVR, which stands for grant, vacate, and remand.

The Supreme Court follows this procedure when it wants lower courts to reconsider their rulings using a new legal framework from a recent decision without delving deeply into the specifics of the cases.

North Dakota

In the North Dakota case, the Turtle Mountain Band, the Spirit Lake Tribe, and three Native American voters sued the state’s secretary of state after the state legislature redrew the boundaries of state legislative districts in 2021. The move took the number of majority-Indian districts in the northeastern section of the state from three down to one, and this, the tribes’ petition argued, constituted illegal dilution of Indian voting power.

They filed what’s called a private enforcement lawsuit against the secretary of state to enforce Section 2. They brought their legal action under 42 U.S.C. Section 1983, a federal law that allows individuals to sue the government for civil rights violations.

Secretary of State Michael Howe urged the federal district court to dismiss the case, arguing that there was no implied right of action allowing enforcement of Section 2. The court did not rule on the issue because the plaintiffs also pleaded their case under Section 1983, which the court found yielded a cause of action to enforce Section 2. A cause of action is a set of facts that provides a legal basis for suing someone, the petition said.

The district court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, finding that Section 2 created individual rights and that nothing in the section’s enforcement provisions was “incompatible with private enforcement.”

Howe appealed, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit found for the state and reversed the district court. The appeals court found that Section 2 does not make provisions for an implied private right of action, and that private plaintiffs may not “instead maintain a private right of action for alleged violations of [Section] 2 through 42 U.S.C. [Section] 1983.”

In his brief, Howe urged the Supreme Court to reject the case, arguing that the Eighth Circuit ruled correctly.

Section 2 “did not unambiguously create an individual right against collective vote dilution,” and the section’s prohibition against dilution is not privately enforceable under Section 1983, he said.

The tribes said in their petition that the Eighth Circuit erred in finding that Section 2 was not privately enforceable and urged the Supreme Court to grant their petition.

The Supreme Court held in Morse v. Republican Party of Virginia (1996) that Section 2 and other sections of the Voting Rights Act are privately enforceable, the petition said.

Mississippi

In the Mississippi case, the NAACP challenged a map for state legislative districts drawn by the Mississippi Legislature after the 2020 census, the NAACP said in its brief.

The group argued that some of the new districts in the 2022 redistricting plan violated Section 2 and the U.S. Constitution, by cracking “large, cohesive Black populations.” Cracking is drawing districts that divide a population or constituency across several districts.

The NAACP argued that four Senate districts and three House districts violated Section 2. The plaintiffs cited Section 1983 and the implied right of action under Section 2 as bolstering their right to privately enforce Section 2, the brief said.

A district court panel of three Mississippi federal judges ruled that the redistricting plan violated Section 2. The court gave the legislature an opportunity to fix its legislative map and ordered special elections in specific districts.

The state said in its brief, which asked the Supreme Court not to take up the case, that the panel erred when it found that the private parties in the case may sue to enforce section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

That issue regarding private enforcement action is “unsettled and profoundly important” and has divided the regional courts of appeals. Section 2 does not, in “clear and unambiguous” terms, create a federal right to enforce the law under either an implied right of action or Section 1983.

The NAACP urged the Supreme Court to affirm the panel’s ruling.

Jackson’s Dissent

Jackson wrote a nearly identical dissent to both Supreme Court rulings.

“This case presents only the question of Section 2’s private enforceability, which our decision in Louisiana v. Callais ... did not address,“ she said. ”Thus I see no basis for vacating the lower court’s judgment.”

Citing the Morse precedent from 1996, Jackson said she would affirm the lower court’s ruling in the Mississippi case, and reverse the lower court’s ruling in the North Dakota case.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 11:45

Pentagon Urged No Resumption Of Strikes As Iran Grew More Effective Tracking US Air Ops: NYT

President Trump had on Monday announced he agreed to pause planned Iran strikes, which were supposedly going to resume Tuesday, because UAE & Saudi Arabia asked him to as they said the sides are getting close to a deal.

However, Pentagon officials have told The New York Times they urged halting of strikes because of intelligence shows Iran has grown more effective at tracking US air operations and strengthening its air defenses, making the potential for significant aerial losses by the US a greater likelihood in any new major campaign in Iran's skies.

via Tasnim

"Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump described that the Arab states requested the delay because "serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond."

But in a fresh report titled "Trump Threatens Iran and Then Pulls Back, All in the Same Day" - The NY Times pushed back with the following:

Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official. Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become "too predictable."

While kinetic operations have been paused since Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, Tehran was apparently treating the diplomatic timeout as a massive engineering and re-arming window. US officials have on several occasions hinted at this reality, as has Trump himself at times.

To complicate any future American target lists, the Iranian military has also reportedly dispersed a massive fleet of new mobile missile launchers across the entire country, completely overhauling their deployment tactics ahead of any potential resumption of US strikes.

In essence, despite the US touting total aerial superiority in the 38-days of initial bombing, Tehran has effectively neutralized the impact of the initial air campaign. If or when the ceasefire officially collapses, Washington could be looking at a heavily upgraded, highly adaptable adversary.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran's Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has this week declared that Iran was "prepared for all scenarios," as cited in state IRIB. 

Trump held off on additional strikes partly because Pentagon officials warned Iran was adapting to the air campaign.

Iranian commanders had studied U.S. fighter and bomber flight patterns — possibly with Russian assistance — making American operations more predictable and… pic.twitter.com/ylPgb8r7Q6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2026

"The Americans must either submit to diplomacy and our conditions or submit to the power of our missiles," he added.

When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change; however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma. President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight - he can appear 'weak' through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 08:45

Shooters And Motives Revealed In San Diego Mosque Shooting That Killed Three

The two young alleged gunmen who descended upon a San Diego Islamic facility on Monday -- killing three men and themselves -- have been identified, along with early indications of their motives. Police sources have told multiple outlets that 17-year-old Cain Clark and 18-year-old Caleb Velasquez -- driven by hate -- scrawled racist themes on their weapons and carried a gas can emblazoned with a Nazi SS sticker. One of them left a suicide note emphasizing "racial pride." 

While school-wrestler Cain Clark's appearance has left some wondering, there's been no reporting of any non-standard gender identity

The attack was carried out on the Islamic Center of San Diego, which is roughly eight miles north of downtown and is home to the county's largest mosque, and Bright Horizon Academy, a K-12 Islamic school. While the shooting began around 11:40 am, one of the shooter's mothers contacted police at 9:42 am. She told them her son was missing, that he was suicidal, and that her firearms and her car were gone. She also reported that he was with a companion, both of them dressed in camouflage clothing. Police tried to track them down using license plate readers, at one point responding to a possible matching plate near a shopping mall. Other officers were dispatched to a high school that one of the alleged shooters attended. 

Police say that, after leaving the Islamic center, the alleged young murderers fired shots at a landscaper two blocks away, with one of the rounds grazing his helmet. He wasn't wounded. Soon after, the two were found dead inside a white BMW another block away from the Islamic center, having apparently died of self-inflicted gunshots. Inside the vehicle, investigators found some type of anti-Islamic writing. In addition, the BMW contained a gasoline can that had a Nazi SS sticker on it, and police say unspecified "hate speech" was written on their firearms. They haven't described the weapons yet.  

The body of one of the shooters lies to the left of the BMW, and a gas can adorned with a Nazi SS symbol sits nearby.  

Clark wrestled for Madison High School, which is only a mile from the Islamic center, but never attended there in person, instead enrolling in the San Diego Unified School District's iHigh Virtual Academy.  He was set to graduate this month. Outside their home, Clark's grandparents told CNN that he had been "a good kid," with the incident leaving them shocked. "We're trying to process this," they said, adding that they were "very sorry for what happened." No biographical details about Velasquez have emerged yet; nor have any photos of him been shared by reliable sources. 

Police have thus far refused to share specifics about the hate speech associated with the slogans on the weapons, the writing in the car and the suicide note. "There was definitely hate rhetoric that was involved," Wah said at a press conference, suggesting that more information may be revealed later. "There was generalized hate rhetoric and speech," but no specific threat to "any facility or any place." 

Police haven't identified the shooters' weapons, but maybe our ZeroHedge commenters can crowd-source a partial answer from this image (Anadolu via Getty Images)

One of three dead men was security guard Amin Abdullah, who's being credited with curtailing the carnage. "I think it’s fair to say his actions were heroic," San Diego Police Chief Scott Wahl told reporters. "Undoubtedly, he saved lives today." He was a father of eight children. An online fundraiser rapidly raised more than $1.2 million and counting. 

Security guard Amin Abdullah was killed, but police credited him with minimizing the casualties (via LaunchGood)

"My community is mourning," said Taha Hassane, the director an imam of the Islamic center. "The religious intolerance and the hate that unfortunately exists in our nation is unprecedented."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 08:15

Futures Fall As Momentum Cracks Grow With Yields And Oil Higher

US equity futures are lower, set for a 3rd drop in a row, as traders waited for futile signs of progress toward a peace deal in the Middle East. and as tech and small cap stocks reacted adversely to higher bond yields around the globe, but nowhere more so than in Japan, where many tenors are trading at record lows, as the wheels have fully come off the clown bus, aka the Bank of Japan. As of 7:30am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.8% as a retreat in tech shares pulled stocks lower in the US and Asia; S&P futures were down 0.4%, putting the benchmark on course for its longest losing streak since March. In premarket trading, semis/memory names remain under pressure; GOOGL and MSFT outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk slipped again as the selloff in memory stocks continued. Financials and Staples are two of the bright spots despite Defensives generally leading Cyclicals. South Korea’s Kospi - ground zero of the global memory momentum bubble - led losses in Asia as  the momentum trade cracks (with foreign investors pulling money for a 9th straight day). Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as media and financial services outperformed: the continent's outperformance may be the market expressing the view that the next rotation is underway. The USD traded near session highs, reversing a modest drop earlier, which helped send 10Y yields to session highs around 4.62%. Oil reversed overnight losses to trade at session highs while. Commodities are mixed after Trump said he is delaying Iranian attacks due to GCC requests to find a deal. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP and Pending Home Sales. Given bond yields, the Goldilocks zone for ADP has narrowed: too high and inflation concerns flare and too low and the narrative shifts to stagflation.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower as Alphabet and Microsoft outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk Corp. slipped as the selloff in memory stocks continued. (Alphabet +0.5, Microsoft +1, Meta -0.3, Amazon -0.7%, Apple -0.6%, Nvidia -0.7%, Tesla -1%).

• Agilysys (AGYS) is up 15% after the hospitality software company reported its fourth-quarter results.
• Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
• XP (XP) falls 5.9% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.
• Agilysys (AGYS) rises 20% after the hospitality software company posted quarterly results that topped estimates.
• Amer Sports (AS) rises 4% after it raised full-year guidance and first-quarter results beat estimates, buoyed by demand for Salomon shoes.
• Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
• Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) rises 14% after the drug developer gave initial clinical data from a mid-stage trial to treat vascular anomalies. TD Cowen calls the data “best case scenario.”
• Stubhub (STUB) rises 4% as Guggenheim Securities upgrades to buy from neutral citing upside to 2026 numbers.
• XP (XP) falls 4% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.

In other corporate news, Clear Street is cutting jobs and replacing its CEO, as the Wall Street brokerage firm pivots after abandoning a plan to go public earlier this year. Google agreed to create an AI cloud business with Blackstone, aiming to compete with companies like CoreWeave in a burgeoning market. A jury rejected Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI betrayed its mission to benefit the public by morphing into a for-profit business, finding that he waited too long to sue the company. Meanwhile, the “Muskonomy” imminently gets a second stock with the SpaceX IPO and that could create problems for Tesla, as explored in the latest Tech Watch column. 

The AI/momentum rally is faltering after powering global equities to record highs in the face of rising bond yields and elevated crude prices. As noted last night, the two-day drop in high beta momentum was the biggest since 2022.

Momentum is having its worst two-day selloff since 2022, posting back-to-back 5%+ unwinds, also first time since 2022: GS pic.twitter.com/c47YFuj9Uv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 18, 2026

The recent boom in pockets of the market such as semiconductors and non-profitable tech has traders wondering if the next move is buy the dip or sustained rotation into other places. At the same time, lagging sectors such as healthcare are catching up after underperforming over the past few weeks. 

Meanwhile, asset allocators increased their equity exposure to stocks by the most on record to a net 50% overweight from 13% last month, and are now most overweight stocks since January 2022, Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows. The most crowded trade, referenced by 73% of respondents, is long semiconductors, followed by long Mag-7 (14%) and long oil (6%). 

JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk expects any pullback to be short-lived, dips will likely be bought on the strength in macro and micro, the return of retail investors, the perceived restart of corporate buybacks, and a generally positive take on impending market catalysts.

“The performance of the semis has been parabolic, so it’s not surprising there’s some profit-taking,” said Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish. “Maybe there is also an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI.”

Hedging costs appear to be picking up, with normalized skews on the major indexes increasing from last week’s trough, which saw Nasdaq 100 sentiment the most bullish in more than a year.

Speaking of AI, so far the only tangible benefit is scapegoating it for mass layoffs: the recent trend of job cuts on the back of "AI efficiencies" continues to make headlines. Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new jobs related to AI, according to an internal memo, part of a broad corporate restructuring that includes planned staff reductions later this week. Standard Chartered said it would cut corporate functions roles by more than 15% by 2030 and scale practical uses of AI to streamline processes.

And then there is the war in iran. “Investors are desperate for the Middle East conflict to end as that should, in theory, help to bring down oil prices, dampen talk of rate hikes, and switch the conversation back to economic growth,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. “For now, the conflict rumbles on and investors remain slightly cautious.”

After oil-driven inflation drove bond yields steadily higher since the start of the war in the Middle East, traders are now zeroing in on 5.5% as the next key level for 30-year Treasuries, according to Citigroup Inc. strategist Jim McCormick.

“I see markets underpricing the risk of a Fed rate hike starting this year,” he said. Swap traders are currently leaning toward a 25 basis point increase in December, with a move fully priced for March next year.

Nicolas Bickel, group head of investment for private banking at Edmond de Rothschild, told Bloomberg TV he wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year US yields at 5%. The rate rose three basis points to 4.62% on Tuesday. “If we have higher inflation and growth stays steady, it will not be an issue,” he said.

In political news, Trump announced his administration is adding more than 600 generic medications to its direct-to-consumer drug sales website TrumpRx alongside billionaire Mark Cuban. The SEC is poised to roll out a plan for trading digital versions of securities that could reshape the landscape of the American stock market as it continues to loosen the rules for free-wheeling crypto markets. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is thus far avoiding declines and is up by 0.7%, led by media, financial services and retail stocks. Most sectors advance, with the basic resources subindex the only significant decliner. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Evolution gains as much as 13%, the most since Oct. 2024, after the Swedish online gambling company approved a €2 billion share buyback program. Analysts say the size of the buyback program is a welcome signal of confidence
• IG Group shares rise as much as 9.8% to a new high after first-quarter revenue beat analysts’ forecasts and the online trading company lifted its full-year guidance
• Intrum gains as much as 18% after UBS upgraded the Swedish credit services group to buy from neutral, saying the announcement of a fully-underwritten capital increase is a “clear inflection point for the equity story”
• Lagercrantz gains as much as 8.5% to a record high after the Swedish industrial group reported earnings ahead of estimates. DNB Carnegie describes the update as very solid, citing a high pace of acquisitions during the year
• Currys shares gain as much as 12% after a trading update and are now in positive territory for the year. Analysts welcomed a third consecutive upgrade to pretax profit guidance
• Hansa Biopharma gains as much as 30% after the company sold the exclusive development and commercialization rights to Idefirix in the EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland and the Middle East and North Africa regions
• Vallourec falls as much as 11%, the most since July 2024, after ArcelorMittal sold shares in the French tubular solutions company at a discount. Morgan Stanley calls the news a surprise
• Grieg Seafood falls as much as 8.1%, the most in a month, after the Norwegian fisheries firm posted weak results and trimmed full-year forecasts, which analysts expect will cause consensus estimates to be slashed
• Boxer declined as much as 5.8% after Pick n Pay Stores raised 4.7 billion rand by selling 57.3 million ordinary shares of the retailer — representing 12.5% of Boxer’s total issued shares — through an accelerated bookbuild offering
• Forterra shares slip as much as 7.9% to the lowest since November 2023 after the UK brickmaker reported soft trading and gave cautious commentary for FY26
• Nanobiotix shares drop as much as 9.5%, falling for a third day after hitting a record last week. That trimmed the French biotechnology company’s rally since the FDA accepted a streamlined trial design in early May for its experimental cancer drug

Asian stocks dropped for a third session as a lack of clarity over an Iran peace deal and elevated global bond yields weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, heading for its longest losing streak since March. South Korea’s Kospi Index was one of the worst performers, tumbling more than 3% as rising bond yields dulled the appeal of growth stocks like chipmakers. Risk appetite remained muted even after President Donald Trump said he was holding off on fresh strikes on Iran, as investors focused on elevated oil prices that have fanned inflation concerns. Those worries are keeping bond yields higher for longer, offsetting optimism over the benefits of the artificial intelligence boom. “Global bond yields moving higher are sending a clear reality check: sustained high energy prices could bring tighter monetary conditions sooner rather than later,” according to Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. 

Over the past five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen in 16 of the 19 weeks when the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 20 basis points or more, losing an average 1.6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Last week fit that pattern. Indonesian shares were on track for a sixth session of declines as speculation mounted that the government will centralize commodity exports to control capital flows and shore up a plunging currency. Meanwhile, benchmarks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Australia rose. Chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge.  In Japan, the broader benchmark Topix index rebounded, led by banks after stronger-than-expected GDP data fueled speculation the central bank could raise interest rates again.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3%, while the Aussie is the underperformer after RBA minutes.

In rates, Treasuries are weaker with 10-year yields up two basis points following similar price action in bunds while gilts outperform after lower-than-forecast UK April jobs figures.  US 10-year yield near 4.61% (vs session high 4.62%) underperforms UK counterpart by almost 5bp; US 30-year near 5.15% is also about 1bp off day’s high. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across a slightly flatter curve; Fed-OIS contracts price in around 16 basis points of tightening by year-end and fully price in a hike by the March policy meeting. UK bonds are outperforming in Europe after soft labour market data. Ten-year gilt yields are down four basis points and bets on Bank of England rate hikes have been pulled back. G dollar issuance slate includes five deals already; Monday saw Merck’s $6 billion bond sale lead eight borrowers pricing a combined $12.2 billion of new debt. Kennametal, Mobility Global and Xylem are candidates for Tuesday after holding market exercises Monday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday). Focal points of US session include comments by Fed Governor Waller at 8am New York time and potential for another large corporate new-issue calendar. 

In commodities, oil prices have reversed overnight losses with Brent sitting a little above $110 after Trump said he’d called off a strike on Iran following an appeal by Persian Gulf allies

Economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and April pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (8am) and Paulson (7pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
• DAX +1.3%
• CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.61%
• VIX +0.3 points at 18.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1203.27
• euro -0.3% at $1.1616
• WTI crude -1.1% at $107.5/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump said he would hold off on a planned U.S. attack on Iran at the request of Gulf leaders to make room for negotiations with Tehran over a prospective deal to end the war. The White House didn’t provide additional details about the planned attack. Several Gulf officials from some of the countries Trump mentioned said they were not aware of the imminent plan to attack Iran he described. WSJ
• Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days: Truth Social
• US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
• Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping as the Iran war offers Russia an opportunity to deepen energy links with China. Putin and Xi are due to meet tomorrow. BBG
• Soaring borrowing costs could trigger a “correction” in the stock market, highlighting a growing disconnect between exuberant equities and bonds battered by worries over high inflation. FT
• Financial market turbulence could force the Bank of Japan to go slow on the unwinding of its massive debt holdings, giving anxious bond investors some relief as surging yields lay bare worsening fiscal strains and inflation pressures. RTRS
• Japan’s economy grew much faster than expected at the start of the year, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes, though the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the Middle East conflict. Japan's economy grew 2.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, exceeding economists' forecast for a 1.7% increase. BBG
• Ukraine’s military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge. WSJ
• The SEC is set to roll out a plan for trading tokenized versions of stocks on crypto platforms, people familiar said. The framework has raised concerns about market fragmentation and investor protection. BBG
• Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new AI-related roles as part of a broader restructuring that includes planned staff cuts later this week. The company is also pursuing a $200 billion data center in rural Louisiana. BBG
• Google and Blackstone will form an AI cloud JV, backed by an initial $5 billion equity commitment from the PE firm. BBG
• US President Trump announced that the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times and that over 600 generics are to be added to TrumpRx.

Iran Headlines

• US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
• US President Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
• US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
• US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
• Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
• US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
• Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran's forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
• Iranian Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran's armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
• Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon's warning that Iran is strengthening its air defences, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
• Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of "unusual silence" from global maritime and insurance authorities.
• Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict. Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo. New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict.
• Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo.
• New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.
• Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.7%).
• Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q1) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.3%, Low. 0.4%, High. 2.9%).
• Japanese Industrial Production MoM Final (Mar) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -2.0%).
• Japanese Industrial Production YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.4% (Prev. 0.4%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade on the front foot, seemingly benefiting from Trump’s de-escalatory post. Trump announced that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. However, he stated that they will be prepared to strike on a moment’s notice. The DAX 40 (+1.5%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE MIB (+0.2%) lags. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Media tops the sector pile, seemingly benefiting from continued upside in Publicis. Financial Services and Industrial Goods & Services round out the top 3 sectors. At the bottom of the pile lies Basic Resources (as precious metals pare Monday’s gains) and Chemicals. US equity futures print modest declines, ES -0.5%. Despite today's modest fixed bid, yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on the tech-heavy NQ (-0.8%). Despite the relative underperformance vs Europe, analysts see this as short-term due to Europe’s lack of IT sector, which has held the region back compared to South Korea and the US

Top European News

• UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%, Low. 4.7%, High. 5.1%). ONS: "Latest figures suggest the labour market remains soft, with vacancies at their lowest level in five years and unemployment higher than a year ago. The number of payroll employees continued to fall in the three months to March, while regular wage growth slowed further."
• UK Employment Change (Mar) 148K vs. Exp. 107K (Prev. 25K, Low. 40K, High. 240K).
• UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%, Low. 3.4%, High. 3.7%).

FX

• USD benefits from underperformance in peers, despite crude benchmarks being lower and the yield environment being more constructive. DXY is higher by three-tenths after bouncing off its 50DMA at 99.00. The session ahead is light, and sees remarks from Fed doves Waller and Paulson, alongside ADP weekly payrolls.
• GBP is a little lower against the Buck and Euro as technical-driven outperformance on Monday is reversed. Focus recently has been on politics (Manchester Mayor Burnham said that changing the Fiscal rules was not an option), and on a downbeat UK jobs report. Cable currently resides at the bottom end of a 1.3387 to 1.3437 range.
• USD/JPY topped Monday’s high (159.08), bringing intervention fears back in focus. USD/JPY has been edging higher throughout the last ten sessions amid reports of a supplementary budget and oil remaining high, with Japan a net importer.
• AUD is the G10 laggard, seemingly looking to price in the weak Chinese data on Monday as Monday’s risk-induced rally pares. Alongside the fading of the risk environment, RBA minutes overnight indicated a wait-and-see approach among members that voted for a hike, reinforcing market pricing of just c. 5bps of tightening for June 16th’s meeting. AUD/USD resumes its slide from 0.7200 on Friday, looks now to 0.7100, around 10-15 pips below.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer by around 6 ticks and currently trade at the mid-point of a 109-03 to 109-11+ range. Action ultimately dictated by Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iran, after several Gulf countries suggested that serious talks were taking place. Nonetheless, risks remain, as Trump suggested that the US is prepared to launch a full-scale assault on Iran at a moment’s notice if an acceptable deal is not reached. Geopolitics aside, focus will be on the weekly ADP Employment Change metrics and Pending Home Sales; Fed speak via Waller is also due.
• From a yield perspective, US yields have eased a touch from the prior day’s peaks; the 10yr now holds around 4.60% (vs Monday’s peak at 4.63%). Nonetheless, the yield still resides beyond the key 4.50% mark, where some analysts have speculated a decisive breach above this point could see the yield begin to spiral.
• Gilts are outperforming vs peers, and are currently firmer by c. 80 ticks, trading with an 86.14 to 86.40 range. A trifecta of factors driving the action today: a) lower energy prices, b) Manchester Mayor Burnham (touted to challenge for PM) saying that changing fiscal rules would not be an option and c) a downbeat UK jobs report.
• Bunds are firmer by around 15 ticks, and hold within a 124.18 to 124.41 range. EU-specific newsflow has been light this morning, with the German benchmark ultimately moving alongside peers. Focus later will be on some ECB speak, but perhaps more pertinently, attention will be on the EU’s meeting related to US tariffs. The main sticking point is Trump. Officials are working on developing clauses to protect the EU, through “Trump Proofing”: a) expires once Trump’s presidential term ends, b) deal suspends if Greenland is threatened, c) allows the EU to restore tariffs if there are significant domestic market disruptions. Should officials reach an agreement, documents will be sent for a full vote in the European Parliament by June.
• Citi strategists says 5.5% may be the next key level for 30yr US Treasury yields after they rose to the highest since 2007.
• Germany sells EUR 3.844bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.32x (prev. 1.04x), average yield 2.85% (prev. 2.74%), retention 23.12% (prev. 20.9%).

Commodities

• The main update was US President Trump delaying the planned Iran attack after requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, as serious talks are taking place. However, they remain ready to strike if an acceptable deal is not reached. Sources continue to outline that some form of military action remains likely, while explosions have been heard in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with transit halted overnight. See the 08:29BST update for more.
• WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday amid the pullback seen after US President Trump called off an attack on Iran that was planned for Tuesday following the request by Gulf nations. WTI Jul resides in a USD 102.12-104/bbl range, and Brent Jul in a USD 109.01-110.77/bbl range – both off worst levels. Dutch TTF trimmed earlier downside and trades firmer by ~1% at the time of writing, north of EUR 50/MWh. Analysts at ING, on US-Iran, said “One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted.”
• In terms of metals, spot gold and silver post losses as the DXY remains underpinned by inflation concerns emanating from elevated oil prices. Spot gold trades closer to the bottom of a USD 4,531-4,589.58/oz range after briefly topping yesterday’s USD 4,584.37/oz peak. Spot silver resides in a USD 75.72-78.89/bbl. Base metals are on a softer footing amid the inflationary concerns from elevated energy prices. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,485.98- 13,646.68/t range at the time of writing.
• Australian PM Albanese said Australia secured over 600k barrels of jet fuel and that three cargoes of jet fuel from China are expected to arrive from early June.
• Angola reportedly to cut July crude exports to 889k bpd.
• The EU is set to unveil an action plan to bolster fertiliser supplies and mitigate food price inflation, the FT reported citing draft proposals.

Central Banks

• RBA Minutes from the May meeting stated the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike and that a hike would provide space to see how the Gulf conflict develops, as well as the response of households and businesses. Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or to keep rates at 4.1%, while it was stated that for future decisions, the board agreed monetary policy could not alter the near-term trajectory of inflation, and also agreed Australian economic growth is likely to be below potential for some time. Furthermore, the board will do what is considered necessary to meet inflation and employment mandates, while the majority emphasised that core inflation was projected above target for an extended period.
• RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said risk of inflation expectations drifting higher is elevated, and the Middle East conflict is a clear external shock, adding that the recent rise in oil prices is particularly challenging to navigate.

US Event Calendar

• 8:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller in Moderated Discussion
• 7:00 pm: United States Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My mini world tour continues, and it's another rare ocean view. This time in Lisbon where I'm passing through for a conference. It really is a beautiful city. Well the parts that I've seen on my travels.  

As I watch the early morning waves crash gently into the harbor, markets have had a mixed 24 hours, with Trump’s post that he called off planned new strikes against Iran helping the S&P 500 (-0.07%) erase most of its intra-day decline towards the end of the session, while 10yr Treasury yields stabilised after touching their highest level in over a year at 4.63%. Brent crude also retreated from two-week highs but is still trading close to $110/bbl this morning and little changed from the end of last week. And the broader market mood is on the cautious side this morning, with US equity futures and most Asian markets losing ground.

We are now exactly six weeks into the combined truce and ceasefire, following 5.5 weeks of strikes and attacks. While my base case is that the absence of kinetic activity would not have persisted this long without US intent to secure a deal, the lack of an agreement—despite several false dawns— remains a source of nervousness.

In terms of the latest from the Middle East, the last major swing came late in yesterday’s US session as Trump claimed that he had called off an attack against Iran that has been scheduled for today after an appeal by leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The news helped remove some of the risk premium that had built up over the course of yesterday, even though in the same post Trump also said that he ordered the US military to be ready for “a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”. Later on, Trump said that he was asked to put off new strikes “for two or three days” as Gulf allies thought “they are getting very close to making a deal”, while he also stressed the aim of “no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran”.

Following Trump’s comments, Brent crude is trading -2.03% lower this morning at $109.84/bbl as I type. Shortly before Trump’s post it had traded as high as $112.72, the highest intra-day level in almost two weeks. Oil prices whipsawed earlier yesterday alongside conflicting headlines around the prospects for further strikes. First, came a positive reaction after Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the US had proposed a temporary waiver on oil sanctions. So that led Brent to fall below $107/bbl as investors latched onto signs of progress in the US-Iran discussions. But more negative headlines then began to come through before Trump’s post. For instance, Tasnim also reported a source who said that Tehran felt the US had “excessive demands and unrealistic positions”. And on the US side, Axios cited a senior US official who said the White House didn’t think Iran’s updated proposal was sufficient for a deal.

In Asia this morning, markets are on the softer side, with tech stocks not helping the mood. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-4.12%) stands out as the largest underperformer, having fallen as much as -5.0% earlier in the session. Other moves are more more muted with the Nikkei (-0.42%) and the CSI (-0.49%) only slightly lower and with the Shanghai Composite flat. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.93%) is defying the regional trend, alongside the Hang Seng (+0.39%). S&P 500 (-0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) futures are giving back some of the late recovery from last night.

The S&P 500 (-0.07%) ended the day with a marginal decline, with Trump’s post helping it recover from -0.75% down an hour before the close. After its sharp decline last Friday, the S&P still posted its worst two-day performance since March, albeit only down -1.31% in that period from Thursday’s record high. Tech stocks took a larger hit, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.64%) and the NASDAQ (-0.51%) seeing a more material pullback. But the broader mood was more positive, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 rising by +0.58%.

US Treasuries also saw a varied performance, with 2yr (-2.6bps to 4.05%) and 10yr yields (-0.6bps to 4.59%) erasing their intra-day increases, but 30yr yields (+0.7bps) inching up to a new post-2007 high of 5.12%. Aside from oil, a rise in yields had been supported by positive data yesterday, which suggested the US economy had continued its resilience into May. Indeed, the NY Fed’s services business activity hit a 16-month high of -5.8, whilst the NAHB’s housing market index was up to 37 (vs. 34 expected). 10yr Treasury yields are around +1.4bps higher again overnight trading at 4.60%.

Over in Europe however, markets put in a relatively stronger performance, with bonds and equities both rebounding. So 10yr bund yields (-1.9bps) came down to 3.15%, after closing at a post-2011 high on Friday, whilst OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) fell back as well. On top of that, investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate hikes, with 73bps priced by the December meeting, down -2.1bps on the previous day. And in turn, the prospect of fewer rate cuts helped to support equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (+0.54%) paring back its slump on Friday.

Here in the UK, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, which came as a spokeperson for Greater Manchester Andy Burnham ruled out changing the government’s fiscal rules if he gained power. Moreover, the spokesperson also ruled out exempting defence spending from the rules, which is something Burnham had previously floated. So that reassured investors who’d been worried that Burnham might lead to higher gilt issuance, particularly after his comments last year about being “in hock” to the bond markets. In turn, that led to a clear rally, with 10yr gilt yields (-7.4bps) closing at 5.10%, down from their post-2008 high on Friday. Moreover, other UK assets outperformed, with the FTSE 100 (+1.26%) advancing, whilst the pound strengthened +0.81% against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, incumbent PM Starmer continued to reject suggestions he’d stand down if Burnham won the by-election, reiterating to broadcasters that “I’m not going to walk away”.

Early morning data has showed that Japan's economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 (compared to the +1.7% anticipated), driven by enhanced consumption and robust exports, thereby bolstering the argument for additional interest rate hikes by the BOJ. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The report indicates that the economy gained momentum during the January-March period, prior to the full effects of the war in Iran becoming apparent.

Despite the bullish growth figures, the Japanese yen has weakened slightly against the dollar following the announcement. Overnight BoJ swaps remain relatively stable, indicating around a 77% probability that the central bank will increase rates in June. Yields on 10-year JGBs have risen by +4.5bps, trading at 2.76%, marking a fresh multi-decade high as we go to print.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include UK unemployment for March, Canada’s CPI for April, and US pending home sales for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller and Paulson, the ECB’s Villeroy, Lane and Makhlouf, and the BoE’s Breeden.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:58

Standard Chartered To Replace "Lower-Value Human Capital" With AI As Meta Layoff D-Day Nears

The white-collar job-loss apocalypse, accelerated by AI, is increasingly concentrated in repetitive, data-intensive, and digitally native roles, with tech firms announcing layoffs one after another.

While 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is Wednesday morning, the London-headquartered international bank Standard Chartered announced on Tuesday plans to cut 15% of its corporate roles (or about 7800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

STAN also raised its profitability targets, aiming for a 15% return on tangible equity by 2028 and roughly 18% by 2030.

"Drive productivity improvements to raise income per employee by ~20 percent by 2028, aided by a reduction in corporate functions roles of >15 percent by 2030," STAN wrote in a press release.

STAN CEO Bill Winters stated in the release, "We are investing in the capabilities that will compound our competitive advantages and drive sustainable growth and higher quality returns over time, with clear targets in place."

To achieve this, Winters explained: "We are scaling practical uses of automation, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence to streamline processes, improve decision-making and enhance both client service and internal efficiency."

During the earnings call, Winters provided more color on these plans, insisting, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."

Here is Goldman analyst Gaelle Jarrousse's first take on STAN's move to reduce headcount to improve higher income per employee and returns:

Let's start with STANDARD CHARTERED CMD where the key punch line is Bill Winters mentioning that 'I can tell you in 2030, if we're generating 18%, I'm not going to be doing high fives with the team. I don't think that that's the potential of this bank.

But I'm not allowed to say that because the slide says 18% by around 18% by 2030.' It highlights the level of conservatism baked in the targets esp in the 57% Cost Income ratio.

The >15% ROTE target for 2028 (assuming 5-7% top line growth vs consensus at 5% and high teens EPS growth vs consensus at 18%) won't lead to earnings upgrades given consensus is at 15%.

However the 18% ROTE target for 2030 gives enough sustained growth and validates the thesis of a lasting growth story. There are not many banks offering c.20% EPS growth until 2030 with a clear narrative (and there not many banks giving you access to the Asian wealth story) and the multiple of STAN does not reflect that – REMEMBER the chart of EPS growth vs PE of last Friday, STAN screened very well on that, ie more re-rating is needed given the growth offered and the right type of growth, ie wealth deserving a higher multiple. STAY LONG.

Beyond STAN, 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is tomorrow morning, and the Facebook and Instagram owner is expected to slash 10% of its global headcount, or about 8,000 employees, in the initial round as it swaps headcount for GPUs.

Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for "ChatGPT" and "layoffs" ...

Layoffs.fyi, a website tracking tech job cuts worldwide, reported that 73,212 employees have lost their jobs so far this year. For all of 2024, the figure was 153,000.

Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely alarming for white-collar America, where many are saddled with student and credit card debt.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:45

BBC's Former News Director Says Trans-Bias & 'Progressive Madness' Drove Her Out

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The BBC’s grip on impartiality continues to slip as one of its former top news executives publicly confirmed what critics have long argued: activist capture from within has turned the state broadcaster into a vehicle for narrow ideological agendas.

Fran Unsworth, director of BBC News from 2018 to 2022, has broken her silence, claiming she was effectively driven out by trans activists and the “progressive madness” dominating the corporation.

In a candid interview, she described an environment of bullying where editors avoided critical reporting on trans issues for fear of attacks from their own colleagues.

'For the news department to be following some airy fairy ideology instead of fact is pretty wild!'

Comedian Leo Kearse reacts to a former BBC news boss claiming she was bullied out of her role by 'gender ideologues'. pic.twitter.com/n6QNpZn1HM

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 16, 2026

“Just dealing with the progressive editorial issues and the bullying around them all. It was incredibly difficult,” Unsworth said. She added that the atmosphere extended beyond trans topics, with staff no-platforming dissenting views and pushing “safe spaces” over open debate.

Unsworth’s remarks paint a picture of a newsroom where challenging the prevailing narrative on ‘culture war’ issues carried professional risks. Programme editors reportedly steered clear of stories that questioned aspects of the trans agenda, wary of backlash from activist-aligned staff.

This self-censorship contributed to what a leaked internal memo later described as “effective censorship” on the topic.

Ex-BBC news boss Fran Unsworth says she was driven out of her job by 'progressive madness' of trans activists https://t.co/Fk0cmm51N1

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) May 16, 2026

Her departure was hastened by the constant pressure. “I would actually say it drove me out,” she stated, highlighting how the bullying around “progressive editorial issues” made her position untenable.

This echoes earlier revelations about the BBC’s hiring practices. In 2024, the broadcaster made clear it would not hire candidates dismissive of diversity and inclusion policies, effectively screening out those skeptical of the dominant ideology.

Recruiters were instructed to reject anyone showing a lack of enthusiasm for these topics, ensuring ideological conformity from the outset.

Unsworth’s admission also lands amid ongoing scandals over the BBC’s handling of gender issues, including accusations of harming children through biased children’s programming.

In late 2025, over 650 families accused the BBC of harming children via a “constant drip-feed” of pro-trans material in shows and dramas. Parents detailed examples like Hey Duggee using “they/them” pronouns for a character aimed at five-year-olds, episodes of Doctors and Casualty promoting child transition narratives, and documentaries criticized for downplaying detransition regrets.

One parent group spokesman warned: “The constant stream of propaganda about gender and trans activism the BBC has transmitted has played a significant role in creating a dangerous culture for children.” They pointed to narratives linking gender questioning directly to suicide, which they said pressured families and ignored safeguarding concerns.

The BBC has defended its output by citing updates to style guides and efforts to reflect developments like court rulings on biological sex, but trust continues to erode.

Inside the capture of the BBC, by Rob Burley (@RobBurl)

In his 13 years as a senior BBC editor, Rob Burley saw the Corporation’s defining commitment to impartiality undermined by transgender ideology, a blind commitment to Diversity & Inclusion schemes, and a culture of… pic.twitter.com/DobvY77PpD

— UnHerd (@unherd) May 16, 2026

The BBC’s obsession with identity politics has also produced content disconnected from everyday reality. A 2025 DEI training video on “microaggressions” went viral for its over-the-top portrayals of white colleagues as bumbling racists, complete with awkward accents and forced celebrations. Critics noted that no one in the real world behaves this way, highlighting the corporation’s bubble of performative wokeness.

Such materials reinforce the sense that the BBC operates in an alternate universe, more focused on enforcing sensitivity hierarchies than delivering impartial news or entertainment.

Unsworth’s exit and the surrounding controversies arrive as the BBC faces broader challenges, including declining audiences, falling trust, and questions over its future under new leadership. Leaked documents and parental complaints have repeatedly shown how activist influence skewed coverage, sidelining biological reality and dissenting voices in favor of Stonewall-aligned perspectives.

The pattern is clear: a public broadcaster funded by taxpayers has allowed internal cliques to dictate editorial direction, from hiring litmus tests to children’s shows pushing contested ideologies. This not only undermines impartiality but risks real-world harm by shaping public discourse—and young minds—around contested claims rather than evidence and balance.

It all underscores a pattern of institutional bias that prioritizes activist demands over journalistic balance and public trust.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:20

NY MTA, LIRR Unions Reach 'Fair Deal' To End Strike After Commuter Chaos Grips NYC

New York's MTA reached a tentative labor deal with five Long Island Rail Road unions, ending the first LIRR strike in more than 30 years. Roughly 3,500 workers walked off the job Saturday, sparking commuter chaos for several hundred thousand people who heavily rely on the train service.

"Tonight, the @MTA reached a fair deal with the five LIRR unions that delivers raises for workers while protecting riders and taxpayers," Governor Kathy Hochul wrote on X late Monday.

The good news is that LIRR service will resume at noon today. However, for the 300,000 people who rely on the service to get to work this morning, the disruption still appears to be ongoing.

Tonight, the @MTA reached a fair deal with the five LIRR unions that delivers raises for workers while protecting riders and taxpayers.

I’m pleased to announce that phased LIRR service will resume beginning tomorrow at noon.

— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) May 19, 2026

LIRR confirmed that service will remain disrupted this morning because there is not enough time to get crews into position to run trains.

Limited Long Island Rail Road service will resume tomorrow with shuttle buses continuing to operate through the AM rush.

Customers should continue to work from home on Tuesday if possible. Check our website for details: https://t.co/QNV4sIPCsH pic.twitter.com/DYjK8UTDkY

— LIRR (@LIRR) May 19, 2026

The lefty union behind the commuter chaos is the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, which stated on X overnight, "The coalition of five labor unions, including BLET, today ended their 3-day strike at Long Island Rail Road after coming to terms on a tentative contract."

The coalition of five labor unions, including BLET, today ended their 3-day strike at Long Island Rail Road after coming to terms on a tentative contract. The strike began just after midnight on Saturday, May 16. Read more: https://t.co/9C6qkMxEI8 pic.twitter.com/tGOqdfJ47A

— Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (@BLET) May 19, 2026

Related coverage:

• "Please Work Remote": NYC Braces For Commuter Chaos With Ongoing LIRR Strike

• Lefty Union Paralyzes Long Island Rail Road As Strike Sets Commuter Chaos Countdown For Monday

Bloomberg noted, "The unions were seeking a 5% boost, or close to it, while the MTA offered close to 4.5% along with ways to find savings to help pay for the higher raise."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:55

International Energy Agency Is Wrong To Forecast Coal's Demise

Authored by Tom Harris via The Epoch Times,

Activists would have us believe that coal is a dying energy source. But, thankfully for American coal states such as West Virginia and the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia—all of which use millions of tonnes of coal every year to generate electricity—that is not even remotely true.

However, the world is burning more coal now than ever, reaching a record 8.85 billion metric tonnes annual consumption by the end of 2025. Since 2020, annual coal consumption has increased by 1.40 billion tonnes.

Most of this has come from China, of course, which makes up about 55 percent of global coal consumption (the United States makes up about 5 percent of global consumption). Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a decline in demand over the next five years, The Kobeissi Letter more realistically predicts that demand will continue to rise, and points out that “past forecasts of peak coal demand have repeatedly proven wrong.”

A graph on the IEA’s website that illustrates coal consumption (in metric tonnes, Mt) from 2000 to 2022, shows estimates for 2024 to 2026 that seem improbable.

Regardless, the IEA writes that increased demand for renewables is the primary cause for the estimated decline in coal consumption, and that “Global coal demand is expected to effectively plateau over the coming years, showing a very gradual decline through to 2030.” However, they also write that coal use is expected to increase in India by about 3 percent per year and in Southeast Asia by about 4 percent per year up to 2030.

In reality, we can’t expect China to slow its coal production anytime soon. Currently consuming about 3 billion tonnes annually, they will clearly dominate global trends in coal consumption in the years to come. Although the IEA also expects a slow decline in coal consumption in China over the next five years, with the gradual but marked decline of climate change alarmism worldwide and China’s ambition to expand its economy, this prediction doesn’t seem to hold much credibility either.

As The Kobeissi Letter states, coal remains in high demand, and the pipe dream of climate activists to kill coal doesn’t account for the security and convenience that this energy supply affords us. Like nuclear electricity—another power source that is vital to providing electricity for large portions of the world—the fuel for coal-fired power generation can be stored right on a power plant’s site for long periods of time, providing stable energy for society. We especially need coal during deep freezes because natural gas can falter in extreme cold due to “just-in-time” pipeline delivery. Gas flows can slow or freeze entirely, as seen in winter storms Uri (2021) and Elliott (2022), leaving grids vulnerable. And, not surprisingly, in each of these storms, wind and solar delivered very little, and sometimes no power at all, causing millions to lose electricity and causing hundreds of deaths from the cold.

CO2 Coalition energy expert Dick Storm says that “coal is indispensable” and that it is “the lowest cost proven source of primary energy for electricity generation ever in history.” The Canadian province of Ontario, where I live, proved this case well. In 2002, coal provided about 25 percent of the province’s power, and we enjoyed very low electricity rates. But in 2005, then-Premier Dalton McGuinty held a news conference and, pointing to the pile of coal beside him, said it was “old technology” and that, to save the climate and protect the air, Ontario would phase out all coal-fired electricity generation. This made no sense in light of the facts:

1. Coal is not a technology. It is a resource, and the degree to which it causes pollution when burned depends on the technology used to burn it. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from a coal plant is unquestionably costly, difficult, and of course, unnecessary. Reducing real pollution is often well worth the price and far easier to accomplish with a coal station by using the latest pollution control technology.

2. Seen in a global context, Ontario’s emissions are trivial—one-quarter of Canada’s 1.6 percent of global emissions. So, no matter what one believes about the causes of climate change, McGuinty’s announcement and the province’s painful reduction to 0 percent coal-fired power were merely virtue signalling and showmanship. It had no impact on climate whatsoever.

It did, however, have a huge impact on consumer electricity rates, which, depending on the year, doubled or even tripled as coal was replaced with more expensive power, including a massive expansion of industrial wind turbines. Of course, soaring power rates are politically problematic, so the government decided to hide the increase in the tax base, and today’s rates are merely 50 percent higher than those in 2002. But we all eventually pay for this massive increase, just not directly on our power bill.

Renewable energy has only been able to survive thus far because it is heavily subsidized by tax dollars. These subsidies have, unfortunately, caused coal-fired power stations to be less profitable to operate, by comparison, compounded by the fact that regulations have crippled the industry. It is important to increase our expansion of coal plants, Storm tells us. 800,000 megawatts of new power generation, the equivalent of 80 New York cities, will be needed in the United States in the next 25 years to keep up with demand. This is simply not possible with renewable energy, and although nuclear and other conventional power will be significant players in this, coal will remain a steady, reliable power source to provide us with these vast amounts of power.

Rather than phase out coal, Saskatchewan should build more plants. Since Alberta phased out this important energy source, it will soon come knocking again begging for more power from Saskatchewan’s black gold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:30

"Answering The Call": Ford Motor Eyes WWII-Style Production Push For Trump's War Economy

One month after we reported that the Trump administration was in talks with U.S. manufacturers about converting idle civilian industrial capacity into weapons production, as conflicts across Eurasia deplete critical weapons stockpiles, Ford Motor signaled Monday morning that it is prepared to support a Western defense-industrial mobilization.

Much like during World War II, Ford said it is exploring how its commercial vehicles and related technologies could help governments in North America and Europe quickly build up their defense in the most cost-effective way. 

"Traditional, purpose-built military hardware takes years to develop and costs billions. By using commercial, off-the-shelf solutions from Ford, governments can access world-class technology at a fraction of the time and cost," Ford wrote in a press release.

Ford said its trucks, such as the F-Series and Ranger, along with technologies like Pro Power Onboard, could support military mobility, transport, and field operations.

"We have always partnered with government customers in times of peace, crisis, and conflict to serve society. During World War II, Ford's assembly lines produced hundreds of thousands of aircraft, trucks, and engines for the Allied effort," Ford pointed out.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that not only Ford, but also GM, Aerospace, and Oshkosh were in talks with the Trump administration to convert civilian industrial capacity into weapons production.

The effort to boost the war economy is part of what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described as putting the defense industrial base on a "wartime footing."

Evidence of converting underused civilian industrial capacity has already been seen with the German automaker Volkswagen, which will soon transform its Lower Saxony factory from producing T-Roc Cabriolets to manufacturing parts for the Iron Dome missile interceptor system.

One major vulnerability is labor disruption. Far-left unions could weaponize strikes and other work stoppages to slow or derail America's defense-industrial buildup at a moment when conflicts across Eurasia, from Ukraine to Iran, are already drawing down critical weapons stockpiles.

We suspect other major U.S. manufacturers will soon issue statements similar to Ford's amid Trump's push for a booming war economy.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 05:45