Jerome Powell's Fed Enters "Nightmare Territory"

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

By now you already know the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.00–4.25% in an 11–1 vote today, citing rising risks to the labor market as their excuse for doing so.

While newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran pushed for a deeper cut, most policymakers backed the smaller move, with the Fed signaling two more reductions are likely before year-end.

Chair Jerome Powell framed the decision as “risk management,” noting slower job growth and persistent inflation, though he rejected calls for a half-point cut.

So, what did the cut and the ensuing press conference tell me that you’re not going to hear on CNBC? This cut marks the beginning of what I believe is going to be “nightmare territory” for the Fed.

First, while many were quick to celebrate “less dissent” at the Fed, the board’s outlook was still all over the place. But it’s more than just a mixed bag of good-natured disagreements. The narrative is that Trump’s “ringer” at the Fed wants much larger cuts than anybody else, raising the risk that the market could see the Fed losing what little “independence” it is perceived to still have.

The market seeing the wide range of Fed opinions not as healthy disagreement, but as a loss of confidence, would be serious shit. Blurring these lines is like letting the inflation “genie” out of the bottle: once it happens, it can be impossible to walk back without severe consequences.

As an investor, I’ve been preparing for this, but the distortions it could create—and the consequences for everyday Americans, especially runaway inflation—could be catastrophic.

Powell’s press conference, which just concluded, offered nothing of substance whatsoever. Not even a hint of a tangible solution or clear path forward. Instead, it was an hour of doublespeak, vague qualifiers, and hedging, which basically summed up to this: “We cut today because the pressure to do so was overwhelming, and because the labor market gave us cover. But we really have no idea how we’re going to balance our two objectives—price stability and maximum employment—going forward.”

The only thing the conference made clear is that we were right to assume the Fed is going to swing back and forth between its mandates for cover, working the gas and the brake at the same time, whenever and however it suits them. Either way, it doesn’t matter — whichever mandate it chooses to address, the outcome is the same: more inflation.

If the Fed prioritizes the labor market, it’ll cut rapidly, and inflation—which is still nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target—will continue to run rampant. If it tries to be a hero and fight inflation, it risks triggering both an economic and an inflationary depression across markets.

Nothing today changes the view I’ve had. The Fed is cutting rates, but not quickly enough. As I’ve said before, the gears of the economy are already stuck and will soon start moving in reverse. The stock market will then go through sharp deleveraging and a downturn, forcing the Fed to cut faster—a possibility Powell himself alluded to today when talking about the pace of cuts.

After that, the bond market will keep pushing yields higher at the long end of the curve, signaling that both the Fed and the country have lost credibility and creditworthiness. At that point, the Fed will start buying bonds, which will push the inflation machine into overdrive and keep us on the path toward the monetary reset I’ve been warning about for years.

I was appalled when Janet Yellen became Treasury Secretary after serving as Fed Chair. I couldn’t believe that after her tenure at the Fed she didn’t just retire and watch the system self destruct while trying to find the worm at the bottom of a tequila bottle somewhere on a Mexican beach. And somehow, despite the damage she’s done as Treasury Secretary, the economy hasn’t yet imploded and the Fed hasn’t yet lost all credibility.

Now, whenever it does happen, I think Powell will wind up taking the blame for both—especially if you ask President Trump. I can’t help but think Powell is counting down the days until he’s relieved of his duties. He’s in an extremely unenviable position as the Fed enters this “nightmare territory” where it simply will not be able to maintain balance between its two mandates. And even if he slips out before everything collapses, it’ll be “Powell’s Fed” that will be left to face the music and take the blame shortly after.

Nothing about today’s Fed action changes my outlook. For my latest thoughts on how I see the next 12 months playing out for the macro economy, listen to this interview—and for how I’m positioning myself, read this piece I published just hours ago.

Changing My Strategy Heading Into 2026

Vaya con Dios, my kind subscribers.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 15:50

Hate Crime Charge After Subway Rider Called "White Boy", Then Brutally Attacked On L Train

A young woman is facing hate crime charges after allegedly assaulting a fellow passenger in a violent, unprovoked attack on a Manhattan subway train, according to the NY Post.

The incident unfolded around 2:10 a.m. Sunday aboard a southbound L train at the 1st Avenue and East 14th Street station. Authorities said Genesis Gittens — who had just celebrated her 20th birthday on Monday — was yelling when a 28-year-old man sitting nearby glanced in her direction.

That look reportedly sent Gittens into a fury. She began striking the rider in the face multiple times while hurling slurs, shouting, “White boy” and “cracker,” according to a criminal complaint. The repeated punches left the victim with a bloody nose, though he declined medical treatment, police said.

The NY Post writes that officers arrested Gittens less than an hour later. She was charged with third-degree assault as a hate crime, the complaint states. During her arraignment, she pleaded not guilty and was released, court records show.

The L train incident was not the only subway violence reported that day. Around 9 a.m. Sunday, police said a man believed to be homeless attacked a 35-year-old MTA cleaner from behind inside the 34th Street–Hudson Yards No. 7 station.

The assailant, who wore all gray and carried a blue blanket, allegedly punched the worker in the back of the head several times. After the victim fell, the attacker — who was barefoot — kicked him repeatedly, cops and sources said.

The suspect fled and remained at large as of Monday. Like the earlier victim, the cleaner refused medical attention at the scene.

* * *

Click pic and snag some beef-ore the sale ends (sorry). 

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 15:30

Fed Cuts Rates By 25bps; Powell 'Bends The Knee', Signals Dovish Path Ahead

Tl;dr: Nine months after it last adjusted rates, The Fed finally bent the knee this afternoon and cut rates by 25bps (as fully priced in by the market).

Only once since it started publishing its target rate in the 1970s had The Fed waited longer. That was 2001-2002 when, unlike now, it was a bear-market low, consumer spending was weak, and inflation was below target.

The Dot-Plot suggests The Fed members are also shifting in a dovish direction (narrowing the gap with the market) with 50bps more now set for 2025.

There was only one dissenter, newly appointed Stephen Miran who wanted a 50bps cut.

So, to clarify: The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too.

WTF!!

*  *  *

Since The Fed's last meeting (July 30th), a great deal of catalyzing events have occurred - from massive downward revisions to the so-called 'strong' labor market to a continued lack of (hyper) inflationary pressure from tariffs; and from a decline in geopolitical uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty offset by a much-decried by MSM rise in fears over Fed 'independence'.

The economic data has pumped and dumped in the ensuing weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

But we do note that 'inflation' has surprised to the upside since the last FOMC (while the labor market has dramatically surprised to the downside)...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold has been a dramatic outperformer during the interim period with some weakness in the dollar and crude oil prices (Israel-Iran tensions eased) plunging most. Bonds and stocks are up since the last FOMC meeting...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut odds dipped after the last FOMC meeting only to surge on two weak payrolls prints, pricing in fully a 25bps today (and high likelihood of another cut in each of the remaining FOMC meetings this year)...

Source: Bloomberg

Expectations for cuts in 2025 have risen notably since the last FOMC meeting (from ~2 cuts to ~3 cuts) while 2026 expectations are only very modestly more dovish)...

Source: Bloomberg

And before we get the headlines, bear in mind that the market is dramatically more dovish than the current (old) dots from The Fed. Today we get a refresh that will likely see the median dots decline (dovishly)...

Source: Bloomberg

As we noted earlier, today's meeting has the potential to be explosive with multiple dissents (both hawkish and dovish).

So What Happened...?

RATES:

• Cuts key overnight interest rate by 25bps to 4.00-4.25% range

• Fed projections show additional 50bps of cuts by year end, another 25 bps of cuts in each of the next two years

• Fed says it is attentive to both sides of dual mandate

VOTE SPLIT:

• New governor Miran dissented on policy decision, favoring 50bps cut

LABOUR MARKET:

• Says downside risks to employment have risen

• Job gains have slowed, unemployment has edged up but remains low

INFLATION:

• Inflation has moved up and remains 'somewhat elevated'

ECONOMY:

• Economic growth moderated over first half of this year BALANCE SHEET:

• Fed maintains current pace of balance sheet drawdown

SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS:

• GDP forecasts raised for 2025, 2026 and 2027

• Unemployment rate forecast for 2025 unch, lowered for 2026 and 2027

• PCE forecast for 2025 unch, raised for 2026, unch for 2027

• Core PCE forecast for 2025 unch, raised for 2026 and unch for 2027

The new projections show inflation finally returning to the 2% target in 2028. That would mark seven straight years of inflation surpassing the target! 

Still, that’s less than the nine straight years of under-shooting from 2012 through 2020.

DOTS:

The dots for 2025 were massively shifted lower with one member calling for 5 cuts in 2025. 7 of the 19 members see no more rate-cuts this year...

• 9 of 19 see 2 more cuts 

• 2 of 19 see 1 more cuts

• 6 of 19 see no more cuts

• 1 sees 1 rate hike, and drumroll...

• 1 sees 5 cuts (this is Stephen Miran)

Fed Funds rate forecast cut for 2025 from 3.9% to 3.6% or another 2 rate cuts.

So the median forecast for next year pencils in just one more rate cut, after the two further moves this year. Not a lot there.

Bloomberg's Ira Jersey notes that while the skew of the Dot-plot remains for slower cuts this year, the median year-end 2026 dot not only moved lower, but there are now five members who see rates below 3%.

And then another cut in 2027 to 3.1%

That would mean 125 basis points of cutting from September 2025 until the end of 2027. That’s way, way short of the 300 basis points Trump has wanted for, like, now.

So, to clarify:

The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too.

WTF!

Read the full redline below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 15:30

Game-Changer? Are Meta And Zuckerberg Ready To Fight For Free Speech

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

I created a Facebook account recently.

No one was more surprised than myself.

From my book, “The Indispensable Right,” to my past columns, I have been one of the most vocal critics of Facebook and Meta regarding their free speech policies.

From their expansive censorship record to their failure to disclose details on their coordination with the federal government, many in the free speech community saw Meta as the embodiment of the anti-free speech movement growing around the world.

Then something happened. Elon Musk happened.

He bought Twitter and dismantled its massive censorship operation. He then turned over what became known as the Twitter Files.

Those files confirmed extensive coordination by the government with academia and social media companies to censor speech, including core political speech.

Eventually, Facebook released its files, and founder Mark Zuckerberg apologized for the censorship that had occurred under the prior system, pledging to restore free speech protections. In doing so, Meta adopted some of the changes Musk made at the newly named X.

Meta can be a gamechanger for free speech

For many, the Meta culpa seemed strained and opportunistic. However, I had the opportunity to have in-depth discussions with Chief Global Affairs Officer Joel Kaplan about these plans. I was impressed and I wrote that, despite the bad blood with the company, the free speech community should give Meta a chance to prove that it was serious about restoring free speech protections.

As I stated in my column, we need Meta. Musk changed the trajectory of the fight for free speech, but the difference between the two companies is impossible to ignore. X reports that it has roughly 600 million users. Facebook remains the largest social media company, with more than 3 billion users.

For free speech defenders, it is the difference between England’s entry into World War II and the United States’ entry. Musk slowed the progress of the anti-free speech movement. Zuckerberg could reverse the direction.

Recently, Kaplan and I reviewed the progress at Meta. He was remarkably transparent and candid about their efforts, and what I learned was heartening.

The chief global affairs officer stated that “we are allowing more speech,” but the company has not seen an explosion of hate speech as a result of greater tolerance for opposing views.

He admitted that “content was being taken down that should not have been taken down. We reduced over-enforcement.”

“We reduced the number of false positives by more than 50% without an explosion of prevalence,” Kaplan said.

“We track how many times our classifiers ‘get it wrong’ through labeling and human review.”

What he found was that “we had this blunt approach to reduce civic content in their feeds on Facebook and Instagram. We removed those and started treating political content like other content. We fundamentally changed how we treat content.”

Facebook is relying more on community notes rather than removal of postings, much like X. The company now has a massive number of community note contributors and a system designed to counter the most biased or strident posters.

The biggest change has resulted from modifying the company’s classifiers, the automated systems used to enforce policies. Meta found that these classifiers were too broad, resulting in excessive content being taken down. It turned off low-precision classifiers, except for illegal and high-severity areas ‒ like terrorism, child sexual exploitation, drugs, fraud and scams.

At the same time, Meta has implemented greater monitoring to track “false positives.” It was able to reduce the number of false positives by more than half without any significant increase in violating content. Now, in its integrity report for the second quarter, Meta shows that it has achieved an even more impressive mark in reducing over-enforcement, cutting enforcement mistakes in the United States by more than 75% every week.

The experience at Meta seems to confirm what some of us have long argued. Yielding to those who demand censorship only produces an insatiable appetite for more speech curtailment. It fuels a class of speech phobes, who spend more time trying to silence others than speaking their own voices.

Meta experienced this same snowballing of censorship. Notably, when the company moved to restore greater free speech protection, it did not experience a comparative rise in violative speech.

European Union poses biggest challenge to free speech

The greatest challenge, however, still lies ahead for the company. The European Union remains the greatest threat to free speech facing Americans. After Musk purchased X with a pledge to restore free speech, figures like former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton demanded that the EU use its infamous Digital Services Act to force X to censor Americans.

The EU has threatened Musk with confiscatory fines that could surpass $1 billion, according to The New York Times.

Meta is clearly trying to find an accommodation with the EU, which may still object to its move to rely on community notes rather than direct censorship. The EU could also object to the reduction of broad classifiers in allowing a greater scope of discussion and dissent.

However, with the Trump administration warning the EU about its efforts to censor Americans, Meta could help recreate a formidable alliance for free speech. For the first time, the free speech community might have a coalition of government and corporate allies that could stand up to the EU.

Hopefully, Meta will expand its notification to citizens in EU countries that they are being denied access to information due to “geoblocking” pursuant to EU censorship regulations. With a united front in the United States for free speech, we can serve as a bastion for those who value this human right.

That is why I have created a Facebook account (jonathanturleyUSA). No doubt, it was the moment that Zuckerberg had long dreamed of.

However, it’s possible that he truly wants to restore free speech in social media. What is clear is that he is already drawing the ire of the anti-free speech movement, which previously unleashed an unrelenting campaign against Musk and his businesses.

The free speech community needs to support Meta. That does not mean that we are chumps. We have often found false friends in both government and corporations.

If Meta stays on this course, we could finally have a coalition of the willing to fight for free speech on a global scale.

Call it a leap of faith in Facebook with our eyes wide open.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of the bestselling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 15:10

Wall Street Reacts To Powell's "Risk-Management" Rate Cut

As Powell begins his presser, Wall Street's kneejerk comments start coming in to what the Fed Chair just characterized as a "risk management" rate cut... similar to the rate cut he announced exactly one year ago, only that one was 50bps not 25bps (wonder why).

As expected, Powell is getting a hard time from reporters who have spotted inconsistencies in the decision and rationale compared to the forecasts. Here, the Fed has cut rates and has signaled that in all probability will cut twice more this year. Yet against that it has economic growth speeding up, the jobless rate coming down and inflation back to (just above) target at the very end of the forecast horizon. In particular, he is being pushed on why the Fed has switched over to the jobs part of the mandate. Indeed even in Powell’s own comments, it doesn’t really come across: “Right now, the situation we're in is that we see, we see inflation, we continue to expect it to move up maybe not as high as we would have expected it to move up a few months ago.“

And while Powell is scrambling to preserve some credibility (especially since exactly one year ago he cut 50bps when the economy was much stronger), here is a snapshot of some of the first comments hitting the tape: 

Ali Jaffery, CIBC Capital Markets

Peering through the dot plot, there’s more division than today’s rate-cut vote suggests. The FOMC is likely divided on its views on the US economy, with some favoring faster easing on risks to the job market (and perhaps other motivations as well), but others are clearly worried about managing through a stagflationary outlook, which is why the overall pace of rate cuts is still far from aggressive. Chair Powell has a tough act to follow in trying to speak on behalf of the committee.

Seema Shah, chief global strategist, Principal Asset Management:

Next year’s dot plot is a mosaic of different perspectives and is an accurate reflection of a confusing economic outlook, muddied by labor supply shifts, data measurement concerns, and government policy upheaval and uncertainty. Overall, though, today’s measured 25 basis point cut allows the Fed to get ahead of a slowdown without overreacting to early signs of strain.

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence

In the press conference, will Powell push against the relatively dovish tone? The last few meetings, the opening remarks have been quite neutral, as we showed in our NLP model earlier in this blog. It seems likely he’s at least a tad more dovish, and if not that could be somewhat surprising to the market... The skew of the Dot plot remains for slower cuts this year, but the median year-end 2026 dot not only moved lower, but there are now five members who see rates below 3%.  We had thought the median would be 3.125%, which would have required just one more member at 3.125% to get there. Overall, we think this is a relatively dovish statement with the SEP.

Gregory Faranello, head of US rates strategy for AmeriVet Securities 

The tone overall favors growth concerns right now as the Fed is showing rates still coming despite inflation remaining above the 2% target. The lack of more dissents shows more unity around the pathway to more neutral rates. Overall, a steadfast, methodical pathway down to neutral.

Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Head of Global Fixed Income

Only one dissent was surprising and it shows the Fed “locked arms” to reduce policy from what was surprisingly restrictive to them 

Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics

The widely anticipated 25-bp cut showed divisions on the committee. While the median participant expects two more 25-bp cuts this year, almost half of the FOMC expects just one or no more cuts this year. The policy statement and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) display several other interesting contradictions. The policy statement added language to flag increasing downside employment risks, while acknowledging that inflation has moved up. In contrast, officials marked up their growth estimate this year, and lowered the unemployment rate estimates in the SEP forecast horizon.

Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the ranking member of the Budget Committee,

The Fed isn’t cutting rates because the economy is strong; it’s cutting them because Donald Trump is recklessly sabotaging it. Inflation is climbing, the job market is shrinking and every sign points to stagflation.

Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global: 

In addition to the political jabs aimed at them, the Fed is in a tough spot. They expect stagflation, or higher inflation and a weaker labor market. That is not a great environment for financial assets. One could call the Fed’s move a risk management-style rate cut. It shows the Fed is putting more emphasis on the softening in the labor market as they trimmed rates while forecasting more cuts in 2025.

Scott Ladner, Horizon Investments 

The initial reaction in stocks was a clear ‘run it hot’ reaction with smalls and cyclicals screaming vs Nasdaq selling off, but this reaction did not reach across to other markets. You would have expected a steeper yield curve with longer rates going higher + commodities / coins rallying - and you saw the opposite of this in the rates & commodity space. This cross asset divergence gives some credence to the idea that the equity market reaction right now has more to do with positioning than reading much into the ‘macro implications’ of the Fed result.

Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings:

This is lift-off, and the Fed is now all-in on supporting the labor market, signaling a decisively aggressive cutting cycle in 2025. The message is clear: growth and employment are the priority, even if that means tolerating higher inflation in the near term.

Dario Perkins, TS Lombard

Make no mistake, this is a central bank that is suddenly laser-focused on the employment side of its mandate... and more worried that the economy is about to stall.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 14:57

Watch Live: Will Fed Chair Powell Push Back Against The Dovish Dots?

Having delivered the 25bps rate-cut that President Trump had been hoping for, Fed Chair Powell is now facing the gauntlet of a press conference with one governor who has been fired (or not) and another member fresh from The White House. 

Will Powell push back against the relatively dovish tone?

Aside from the drama, the big question is - will Powell offer a more dovish outlook (to match the market's expectation and the new dot plot) or will he course-correct once again (and crush the market's dovish dreams).

As a reminder, Chair Powell's tone shifted between the July FOMC and Jackson Hole and given the demise of the labor market since then, we see no reason for his tone to shift back.

With the conflict between inflation risks on the upside and employment risks on the downside, we expect Chair Powell to reinforce that policy is not on a preset course and is data dependent.

But we also expect he will point to a new course, of gradual, cautious, data-dependent policy easing.

The lowest dot has the “terminal” rate, or where the Fed stops cutting, at 2.4% in 2027, corresponding to 175 basis points more in easing from where we are now. Or 200 including today’s cut. That’s still shy of Trump’s 300.

So, to clarify:

The Fed is cutting rates, and projecting more rate cuts, at the same time as upgrading its growth forecast and nudging up its inflation outlook too.

Good luck explaining that Jay!

Watch Fed Chair Powell thread the needle live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 14:25

US Regulators Investigate Tesla Door Handles After Complaints Of Entrapment

In what could be a gentle reminder to Elon Musk that President Trump is still the boss, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened an investigation into Tesla’s electric door handles, focusing on 2021 Model Y vehicles, according to Bloomberg.

Regulators say they are examining whether doors become inoperative after low-voltage battery failures, leaving occupants unable to get in or out.

“This investigation will also assess the approach used by Tesla to supply power to the door locks and the reliability of the applicable power supplies,” NHTSA said. The agency noted that every Tesla sold in the US uses electrically powered doors.

Bloomberg recently reported more than 140 complaints since 2018 about Tesla doors getting stuck or failing, including cases where parents could not retrieve children from the back seat. NHTSA cited nine “failure reports,” seven of which matched Bloomberg’s findings. “Entrapment in a vehicle is particularly concerning in emergency situations, such as when children are entrapped in a hot vehicle,” the agency said.

Bloomberg writes that owners told regulators they sometimes broke windows to reach trapped passengers. “No one should have to resort to breaking the windows to get into their own car when their child or pet is trapped inside because the door handles fail to work,” said Rosemary Shahan, president of Consumers for Auto Reliability and Safety.

Tesla has not commented on the probe. Chair Robyn Denholm, asked last week about Bloomberg’s investigation, said only that the board “takes seriously” any safety incidents.

Safety advocates argue that Tesla’s manual release latches are difficult to find in emergencies. Michael Brooks of the Center for Auto Safety said: “The fact that manual release locations are noted in the owner’s manual is not sufficient to advise passengers or ride-share occupants, who do not have a chance to read the manual when a fire or other emergency circumstance is in progress.”

China and Europe have also increased scrutiny of electric and flush door-handle designs, warning they can complicate rescue efforts. NHTSA said it will “continue to monitor any reports of entrapment involving opening doors from inside of the vehicle” and will “take further action as needed.”

The door-handle probe adds to multiple US investigations into Tesla, including ongoing reviews of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving safety. There have been few, if any, updates on legacy probes of Musk's company since President Trump has been in office.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 13:40

EU Proposes Freezing Israel Trade Pact As Smotrich Declares Gaza 'Real Estate Bonanza'

On Wednesday the European Commission presented a proposal for new tariffs and sanctions aimed at pressuring Israel to quickly end its military operations in Gaza, in addition to sanctions measures on two Israeli ministers known for their fiery anti-Palestinian rhetoric.

"The horrific events taking place in Gaza on a daily basis must stop," EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after presenting the proposal to the EU Council. "There needs to be an immediate ceasefire, unrestrained access for all humanitarian aid, and the release of all hostages held by Hamas."

The measures would if implemented constitute a major, historic blow to EU-Israel relations. The commission appears to be largely responding to the new Gaza City offensive, confirmed to be in full swing this week, and the major United Nations investigation just released which concluded that Israel is guilty of genocide.

"We're not proposing to suspend trade with Israel, we are proposing to suspend trade preferences," said a senior unnamed European official.

A decades-long deal and trade-related pillar of the Israel-EU Association Agreement is reportedly what's on the chopping block. According to Middle East Eye:

Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Wednesday that if a qualified majority is reached, the EU will impose 230m euros ($166m) tariffs on 37 percent of the 15.9bn euros of the EU’s imports from Israel, instead of free trade. 

Israel is the EU's largest trade partner. In 2024, EU-Israel trade reached a record 42.6bn euros, of which 37 percent is “preferential treatment”, according to the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.  

"So definitely this step will have a high cost for Israel," Kallas told Euronews on Tuesday.

The two ministers being targeted in the potential new measures are National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. They would face asset freezes and a blanket travel ban for travel within the European Union.

Smotrich's latest Wednesday comments will not at all help his case in the eyes of European officials. He has newly stated that the Gaza Strip that the Gaza Strip is a "real estate bonanza." Further he claimed to be in talks with the Americans on how to divide the enclave up once the Palestinians are kicked out.

There is "a real estate bonanza" in Gaza that "pays for itself" and he has "already started negotiations with the Americans," he said at a conference in Tel Aviv, according to local media.

"We have poured a lot of money into this war. We have to see how we are dividing up the land in percentages," Smotrich said, explaining that "the demolition, the first stage in the city’s renewal, we have already done. Now we just need to build."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 12:40

Goldman: Four Questions Investors Are Asking About Walmart 

At the start of September, Goldman hosted its 32nd annual Global Retailing Conference, followed by last week's technology forum. It's been a packed first half of the month for Goldman analysts, who have been busy digesting comments from corporate executives and sharing key takeaways with clients on how business leaders see the evolving world. 

On Monday, Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane penned a note for clients about the four key questions investors had following Walmart's appearances at its retail and technology conferences.

McShane noted that the mega-retailer is on track to deliver stronger-than-expected results in both the near term and the long term. She expects Walmart to sustain top-line growth of at least 4% while expanding operating income at a high-single- to low-double-digit pace.

She also highlighted that profitability in US e-commerce, which turned positive in the first quarter and doubled in the second, is being driven by lower delivery costs and growth in alternative revenue streams such as its marketplace, data ventures, media unit, and WMT+ subscription service. 

McShane maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock, with a 12-month price target of $114.

Here are the four most critical questions investors were asking about Walmart following the conferences:

1. How is Walmart's competitive positioning v. Amazon, especially when it comes to delivery?

Walmart, while acknowledging Amazon as a formidable competitor, is confident that their combination of value, its fresh and produce merchandise offering and its speed are key differentiators to their competitive position. Walmart can deliver to 94% of US households in 3 hours or less, with the company expecting that to expand to 95% by year-end. Looking at scheduled deliveries, which are a large part of Walmart's business, about one-third are fast (3 hours or less), with 25% of fast deliveries now occurring in 30 minutes. Walmart has observed that when customers utilize fast delivery, their frequency starts to increase and their basket composition often changes; while many customers start with fresh food, after using fast delivery, they may also purchase general merchandise (i.e., fashion, home goods).

2. How is Walmart's marketplace differentiated both for buyers and sellers?

A key differentiator for Walmart's marketplace versus peers is its grocery offering, given that grocery items move the fastest and Walmart is the largest grocer in the US. To further differentiate themselves from others the company is now displaying select Marketplace seller items in stores, with a QR code to order the item through the Walmart app. These codes allow customers to access digital tools, services and an extended online assortment. Walmart is bringing the extended Marketplace aisle into stores, starting with a few items on display. Customers can purchase through the Walmart app and even have their items professionally installed. And finally for sellers, they offer two services; Walmart Fulfillment System and Data Ventures. When a seller joins the Walmart Fulfillment System, it helps lift a seller's GMV 50% on average. Data ventures can provide sellers with valuable insights on their selling trends.

Per management, there is a symbiotic relationship between eCommerce and WMT's higher margin businesses (i.e., advertising, data, membership, marketplace, fulfillment); as eCommerce grows, WMT has a greater opportunity to expand these higher margin businesses, and the company can reinvest those dollars into experience and price.

3. What consumer trends are Walmart seeing?

US consumer behavior has been generally consistent. In 2Q, WMT saw ongoing share gains across key categories and all income cohorts, with upper income households contributing the largest gains. The company is seeing strong demand from middle to upper income consumers, while the middle to lower income has experienced a bit of stress, calling out a behavioral change around items with higher costs due to tariffs. That said, consumers have held up well, and WMT expects to see similar trends for the balance of the year. In terms of quarter-to-date trends, WMT started this quarter with similar strength on the top line, noting that 2Q trends are extending into 3Q.

Insights from HundredX

We supplement our work with data from HundredX, a mission-based data and insights company that takes an innovative approach to monitoring consumer perceptions and gathering consumer feedback to understand trends across 80+ industries and 3,000+ brands. HundredX analyzes collective opinions of everyday customers and evaluates how their priorities influence purchasing decisions and attitudes toward businesses and brands.

4. How is Walmart thinking about price in 2H?

In the US, inflation is in the +LSD range, following price increases in food categories for multiple years now. Looking to general merchandise, prices went up as supply chains were stretched after the pandemic, which was followed by a decline in prices. In the current tariff environment, WMT has seen a gradual increase in cost levels in general merchandise, leading to single-digit inflation. Per management, the elasticity response has been better than expected, noting that when prices go up, units go down correspondingly, but consumers move from one item or category to another as prices change. As of the end of July, about one-third of WMT's assortment would have had a price change, and by the time of 1Q26, it is expected be the full base. When tariffs became a possibility, WMT started value engineering its 3Q/4Q assortment, taking out costs and holding prices when possible. Per management, WMT's price gaps remain consistent, noting that the company made investments a few years ago to establish a position and has maintained that. Looking at the GS grocery pricing survey (ran by Leah Jordan), price gaps for WMT widened in August to -13.6%, versus an average of -11.9% for the last 12 months indicating to us that WMT is focused on providing more value through food in order to keep overall prices low for the consumer and take more share.

These questions come as Walmart shares have gained 15% year-to-date, though the stock remains below the peak reached in mid-February.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:40

Dr Strangecurve

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As Christian Lawrence notes in ‘Under Pressure’, we expect a 25bps rate cut today. However, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, this is “the strangest Fed meeting in years” as “Consequential and contentious debates over the path ahead on rates are playing out under the glare of extraordinary political drama.” Indeed, to project dots, might future Fed meetings look like The Apprentice?

Or could it be the War Room from Dr Strangelove? To quote General Clemenceau as quoted in that movie, “War is too important to be left to the generals.” If so, when do we do monetary policy too? “Gentlemen, you can’t set rates in here! This is the FOMC Room!” That development would make the next Fed Chair ‘Dr Strangecurve’… which gold is of course pricing for.

Meanwhile, the Great Game continues to come into sharper focus in global War Rooms for those not staring too hard at lines on their Bloomberg screens.

The SCMP headline today is, ‘As the US retreats, can Xi Jinping’s new initiative shape the future world order?’ They add, “Analysts say the Global Governance Initiative reflects China’s ambitions to shape a multipolar world, but it needs more substance to avoid becoming an ‘empty shell’.”

That’s as ‘Greenland’s defenses are being bolstered against Russia and China, but Trump may be the real target’ (CNN) – I’m sure the Pentagon is terrified if so; the US warned Canada of potential negative consequences if it dumps F-35 fighter jets; Israel presented Syria with a proposal for a new security agreement, which it hasn’t yet replied to; and Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu have refused to sign the defense treaties with Australia it had drawn up for them.

In short, the boundaries of emergent geopolitical blocs continue to be thrashed out in real time alongside those of the matching geoeconomics.

There, the SCMP claims a Trump China trip many hinge on Boeing and soybean deals and that “significant progress” has been made. Recall the Farce One Trade Deal which was an irrelevant thing in markets nearly six years ago? It’s unlikely to play out again, even as Trump extended TikTok’s deadline as US investors seem set to take 80% control of it while the actual algorithm stays with China.

Rather, the US is beginning the review of trade deal with Canada and Mexico – expect far stronger measures to ringfence US production in some key sectors and guidance on transshipment from outside the bloc. PM Carney reportedly told Anglo American to move its HQ to Canada for the Teck deal approval, which is Anglo American in the broadest sense. The UK has paused its push for a 0% US tariff on steel, which it makes very little of, as PM Starmer prefers to lock in a “permanent” 25% rate, but the Trump state visit is going to see US tech giants pledge billions for UK AI infrastructure. Moreover, the US government will start a multibillion mining initiative for critical minerals via the IDFC and hedge fund Orion.

The EU and Indonesia are set to agree a trade deal next week, which the Financial Times claims is to “seek to reduce reliance on the US.” Except both economies want to be net exporters, so won’t import much from the other, especially against public protests and political populism, and both signed trade deals with the US which don’t allow them to export anything to it they import in volume from China. As such, an EU-Indonesia trade deal is still a step towards a US-centric trading bloc. Just don’t expect many headlines saying so from Brussels or Jakarta.

The EU will reportedly adopt new sanctions against Israel today, which could involve removing trade privileges. As the EU runs hefty trade and services surpluses with Israel, that could mean it takes the larger economic blow should things escalate, while Israel is a key source of defence tech, such as Iron Dome, that a Europe trying to rearm rapidly may have to buy from the US, which will continue to work with Israel, or duplicate domestically at higher cost, and much more slowly.

In Australia, Khapra beetle, a threat to grains industry, was just discovered in imported nappy pants. Moreover, a top cyber expert says, “China could disable or detonate Aussie EVs.” He notes, “Take off the safety features of household batteries so that they overcharge. Take off those same safety features for electric vehicles. Just turn them off from the manufacturer so that those vehicles explode,” and argues the nature of war isn’t changing, but technology is. Of course that’s just paranoia or is only for Aussie EVs… right?

In markets, the recently fired US BLS chief has just called her dismissal a “dangerous step”, claiming she wanted to modernize federal statistics but the agency “got caught in DOGE’s crosshairs.” Well, now there are lots of crosshairs to get caught in, or so it seems. How many of them are the BLS taking into account? Indeed, while timely and accurate economic data are regarded as essential, in a contested geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, will it be in the best interests of governments to share them?

For those quoting Dr Strangelove’s “Of course, the whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret! Why didn’t you tell the world, eh?”, or shrieking “because markets!”, have you noticed what’s happened with some key data series in China in recent years, or in Russia since the war started? Logically, would you share targetable signs of economic weakness or strength via online data platforms that the other side can read and model as its leisure? Do you show other market players your books?

If not, what makes you sure you will see the real numbers going forwards as the West embraces more bloc-based realpolitik neo-mercantilism? More darkly, what makes you think you do now - “because markets”?

Over to you, Dr Strangecurve.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:20

General Mills Beats On Profit, Reaffirms Outlook Amid Sluggish Sales And At-Home Dining Trend

General Mills reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street's expectations, driven by a divestiture gain, despite slower sales. The maker of Cheerios and Blue Buffalo reaffirmed its full-year outlook, cautioning that EPS will remain under pressure as it invests to reignite volume-driven organic net sales growth. Notably, GIS executives have warned about a continued shift toward consumers eating at home rather than spending at restaurants. This is troubling news as the back-to-school season gets underway and the holiday shopping season begins in about two and a half months.

Besides Cheerios and Blue Buffalo, GIS also controls other top brands, including Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Betty Crocker, Nature Valley, and Yoplait. It delivered better-than-expected EPS and margin despite broad sales declines, with strength in International offset by weakness in North America Retail and Pet. 

GIS Q1 Highlights (using Bloomberg Consensus data) 

Earnings: Adjusted EPS $0.86 (vs. $1.07 y/y), topping estimates of $0.82.

Margins: Adjusted gross margin 34.2% (vs. 35.4% y/y), above 33.4% consensus.

Sales: Net sales $4.52B, down 6.8% y/y, in line with estimates.

• North America Retail: $2.63B (-13% y/y, in line).

• Foodservice: $516.7M (-3.6% y/y, slightly above).

• Pet: $610M (+5.9% y/y, below est. $622.6M).

• International: $760.2M (+6% y/y, above est. $736.3M).

Organic Performance

Organic net sales down 3% (vs. -2.9% est).

• North America Retail -5% (vs. -4.8% est).

• Pet -5% (vs. -2.9% est).

• Foodservice +1% (vs. +0.2% est).

• International +4% (vs. +2.4% est)

Organic sales volume -1 pt (in line).

Organic price/mix -2 pts (vs. -1.8% est).

GIS reaffirmed its full-year outlook for adjusted EPS to decline as much as 15% and organic sales between -1% to 1%.

GIS FY26 Outlook

• Reaffirmed organic net sales guidance: -1% to +1% (vs. -1.07% consensus).

• Maintains forecast for adjusted EPS to decline 10–15% in constant currency.

• Expects adjusted operating profit down 10–15% in constant currency.

Food and beverage companies have faced lower volumes and softer demand as cash-strapped shoppers seek value.

One way consumers have tightened budgets is by buying more food for home rather than dining out. This trend began during the inflation surge under the Biden-Harris regime several years ago. Although inflation has eased during Trump's second term, some consumers continue to cook at home.

"General Mills has said a rise in cooking at home among value-conscious consumers struggling with inflation has helped boost some of its staples, including rice and beans," Bloomberg noted, adding, "Still, shoppers who are anxious about the economy have been cautious with their spending and turned to private-label options and smaller package sizes." 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:05

WTI Extends Gains AFter Biggest Crude Build In 3 Months

Oil prices leaked lower overnight after a three-day advance as traders assess the fallout from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision later Wednesday.

WTI was trading around  $64.50 a barrel after gaining 3.2% in the previous three sessions. Ukraine attacked the Saratov refinery in its latest strike on Russian energy facilities - which have helped cut the OPEC+ member’s production to its lowest post-pandemic level, according to Goldman Sachs.

A big crude draw reported by API overnight will prompt some buying pressure if confirmed by the official EOA data.

API

• Crude -3.42mm (-1.6mm exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline -691k

• Distillates +1.9mm

DOE

• Crude -9.285mm - biggest build since June

• Cushing -296k

• Gasoline -2.347mm

• Distillates +4.046mm

US crude stocks plunged over 9 million barrels last week (far greater than expected and the biggest draw since June). Gasoline inventories also saw a drawdown while distillates stocks rose for the 3rd straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Even accounting for the 504k barrel addition to the SPR, total US commercial crude stocks saw their second biggest weekly decline in 15 months...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production remains near record highs as the decline the rig count has finally stalled...

Source: Bloomberg

The recent gains haven’t been enough to push oil out of the $5 band it has been in for most of the past month-and-a-half, buffeted between geopolitical tensions and bearish fundamentals.

The accelerated return of OPEC+ supply has boosted predictions that a glut will form later in the year, while surging oil tanker earnings are offering a sign of higher output.

WTI has extended its gains from overnight weakness and is trading just in the green on the day...

Oil markets are focused on Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, as well as the wider risk of escalation following a drone incursion into Poland last week, said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Plc.

“We think a 25 basis-point Fed cut is priced in, but a 50 basis-point surprise would be further risk-on for markets,” Ashford said in reference to the imminent Fed decision.

Oil's implied volatility was subdued after it fell to the lowest in more than three weeks on Monday, as outright prices remain firmly stuck within the narrow range seen since early August.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:37

Bank Of Canada Resumes Rate Cuts After 6 Month Pause

The Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.50%, as expected. This was the 8th consecutive rate cut since the easing cycle started one year ago, and took place after the bank paused following its last rate cut in March, 6 months ago.

Governor Tiff Macklem said that while "considerable uncertainty remains", there was a "clear consensus" within the committee for the first rate cut since March, as slowing population gains and a weak labor market were a drag on consumption while the economy was weaker and there was "less upside risk to inflation." The BoC head explained that the "Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward." Additionally, he noted the upward pressure on CPI has diminished.

The BoC removed the language from the prior statement which said, "if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate".

Some more highlights from the report: 

Trade

• Through the recent period of trade upheaval. Governing Council has been proceeding carefully, paying particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Tariffs are having a profound effect on several key sectors, including the auto, steel and aluminum industries. Chinese tariffs on canola, pork and seafood, new US tariffs on copper, and higher US tariffs on softwood lumber will spread the direct impacts further.
• After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing.

Economy

• The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.
• There were some signs of resilience: consumption was stronger than expected in the second quarter and housing activity increased.
• Canada's GDP declined by about VA% in Q2, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity.
• Exports fell by 27% in Q2, a sharp reversal from 01 when Cos. were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs.
• Business investment also declined in Q2, while consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace.
• In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.

Inflation:

• Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated.

Ahead:

• Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity.
• Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties.
• GC will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships.

In summary: the BoC cut rates by 25bps as expected, with Governor Macklem noting a "clear consensus" to ease policy. The accompanying statement stated that the reduction was appropriate given the weaker economy and fewer upside risks to inflation. Additionally, the board judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. On the trade front, policymakers remain cautious over the risks stemming from US tariff actions. Moving forward. The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.

In immediate kneejerk response, the USDCAD rose modestly from 1.3760 to a session high of 1.3770 before retracing some of the move with much of the decision in line with expectations. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:14

Lyft Shares Rise Above Multi-Year Trading Range On Waymo Nashville Partnership 

News of a new partnership in the robotaxi industry just hit the wires: Lyft and Waymo are joining forces to expand autonomous ride-hailing in Nashville starting in 2026. Lyft shares jumped in New York on the news. Waymo, a private subsidiary of Alphabet, will supply the autonomous vehicles to operate on Lyft's Flexdrive fleet management platform, which will handle maintenance, charging, depot operations, and overall vehicle optimization.

At launch, rides will be available first through the Waymo app, with integration into Lyft's app planned later this year. This new dynamic marketplace will enable Waymo vehicles to serve riders on both platforms, enhancing fleet utilization while supporting Lyft's hybrid model, which combines human-driven vehicles and robotaxis. 

"Riders will have the opportunity to hail Waymo's fully autonomous vehicles first on the Waymo app, with plans to also dispatch its fleet on Lyft's network for matched rides later in 2026," Lyft wrote in a press release. 

Lyft is expected to support the rollout by building out a dedicated AV fleet management facility in the Nashville metro area, ensuring high uptime and lower operating costs. 

Executives from both companies highlighted the partnership was a perfect fit, with Lyft CEO David Risher stating: 

"This partnership brings together best-in-class autonomous vehicles with best-in-class customer experience. Waymo has proven that its autonomous technology works at scale. When combined with Lyft's customer-obsession and world-class fleet management capabilities, it's two great tastes that go great together."

Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana stated: 

"We're delighted to partner with Lyft and launch in Nashville next year, as we continue to scale our Waymo ride-hailing service to more people in more places. Lyft's extensive fleet management capabilities through Flexdrive make them an ideal partner for expanding to Nashville. We can't wait to introduce Music City's residents and visitors to the convenient, consistent, safe, and magical Waymo experience."

Shares in New York were up over 20% at the start of the cash session, but have pulled back a little since...

...but still breaking out of a trading range that dates back to early 2022.

After months of compression, the Waymo news could be the catalyst for further upside.

Robotaxi wars in North America are underway. How will Tesla respond?

Related:

• Goldman Weighs In On Tesla Robotaxi Launch

• Robotaxis Enter Commercialization Phase In North America With Hyperscaling Next

According to Goldman...

Besides robotaxis, autonomous big rigs will be hitting the streets for commercialization momentarily - if they haven’t already.

• First Driverless Heavy Duty Trucking Service Launched On US Public Roads

. . .

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:00

UK, US Sign $42 Billion Tech Deal To Boost AI Partnership

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The United Kingdom and the United States struck a technology pact on Sept. 16 that would bring $42 billion in investments from U.S. tech giants into the UK’s AI infrastructure.

The deal was reached as President Donald Trump arrived in the UK for a two-day state visit, during which he is expected to meet King Charles and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Under the “Tech Prosperity Deal,” the two nations agreed to cooperate in advancing AI, quantum computing, and nuclear technology, according to a statement issued by the UK government.

Major U.S. tech companies—Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, and CoreWeave—will invest in the UK’s AI infrastructure, including data centers and computer chips, as part of the agreement.

The deal is expected to generate more than 5,000 jobs in the northeast of England, which the UK government said will become a new AI growth zone.

The two countries will collaborate on research schemes to further the use of AI to allow for “targeted treatments and other shared priorities like fusion energy,” according to the statement.

This could lead to “life-changing breakthroughs like developing targeted treatments for those suffering with cancer or rare and chronic diseases,” the UK government said.

“This Tech Prosperity Deal marks a generational step change in our relationship with the U.S., shaping the futures of millions of people on both sides of the Atlantic, and delivering growth, security and opportunity up and down the country,” Starmer said.

The deal includes a $30 billion investment from Microsoft over four years, its largest commitment in the UK.

The company stated in a blog post that the funding will help develop the country’s “largest supercomputer,” which will be equipped with more than 23,000 advanced AI chips.

Under the U.S.–UK tech pact, Nvidia will partner with UK companies to deploy 120,000 advanced GPU chips across the country, marking its largest rollout in Europe to date, according to the statement.

“Today marks a historic chapter in U.S. – United Kingdom technology collaboration,” Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said.

OpenAI said it will team up with British company Nscale and Nvidia to launch a Stargate UK project to boost the UK’s sovereign computing capabilities, as part of the tech pact.

The UK and the United States signed a trade agreement in June on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada. The deal still left UK steel and aluminum subject to 25 percent tariffs, rates that the UK government is working to reduce.

Speaking to reporters before departing for the UK on Sept. 16, Trump indicated that he was willing to further negotiate trade with the UK government.

“They want to see if they can refine the trade deal a little bit. We made a deal, and it’s a great deal. And I’m into helping them,” the president told reporters.

It was Trump’s second state visit to the UK; his first was in 2019, during his first presidential term, when he was hosted by King Charles’s late mother, Queen Elizabeth II.

A fact sheet issued in May by the Office of U.S. Trade Representative noted that the UK had not fully addressed its Digital Services Tax (DST), which Washington has criticized as discriminatory toward U.S. tech companies. It is unclear whether Trump will touch on the issue during his visit.

The two governments signed a nuclear energy deal just a day before Trump arrived in Britain, which the UK said would “turbocharge the build-out of new nuclear power stations” in both countries.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 09:45

The Fuse Of History Is Lit

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

Earlier this month a British academic named Michael Rainsborough wrote an insightful essay on the United Kingdom’s descent towards civil war.  Once the head of the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, Rainsborough was dismissed from his post for committing a series of “thought crimes.”  His final offense came in the form of a co-authored essay entitled, “The British Road to Dirty War,” in which he and former colleague David Betz diagramed “the hollowing out of British democratic institutions” and the dangerous rule of a permanent governing class filled with authoritarian elites.

Now working in Australia, Rainsborough returns to the subject with additional wisdom that only time and distance can provide.  His verdict is as incisive as it is sobering: Britain’s institutions are irreparably damaged.  The country is headed for long-term Balkanization.  

A “dirty war” similar to those that gripped Latin America fifty years ago may usher in an era of assassinations, hostage-taking, disappearances, industrial sabotage, censorship, and general repression.  Although he acknowledges that the question of how bad things will become in Britain is still very much an open one, he doesn’t envision any set of circumstances that can entirely avert the misery to come.

Rainsborough describes a series of intentional acts engineered by governing elites to diminish democratic accountability and maintain permanent control.  

Rather than recognizing the democratic will of the people following the Brexit referendum in 2016, the ruling class responded with a “deranged mixture of denial and contempt for the electorate.”  

Even before the Brexit vote, however, leftist-globalists were engaging in a great “demographic transformation” intended “to rub the Right’s nose in diversity.”  

Today the whole British government “operates from a post-nationalist outlook, one that treats the very idea of nationhood as negotiable, even alien, to the political class.”

Making matters worse, the British Establishment has gone all-in on globalism by “outsourcing” its “sovereignty to supranational bodies” that “dilute and often override domestic consent.”  Consequently, institutional elites are driving Britain towards “self-destruction” by “clinging to an incontinent immigration system and an almost devotional attachment to international and human rights laws that disadvantage its own citizens.”

Rainsborough accuses British authorities of repurposing old tools for imperial governance into “divide and rule” instruments for manipulating domestic society.  “The aim” is “to rule by division: to fracture society into communities, reward loyal in-groups and discriminate against the majority through a two-tier system of justice, policing and social policy.”  He calls the agents of this purposeful division the “new imperialists.”

The “new imperialists” have self-important titles — “diversity coordinators, anti-racism activists, curriculum decolonisers, climate campaigners” — but their mission is identical to the agents that once helped Britain’s East India Company conquer much of the globe: to “manage society by division.”  After categorizing everyone by race, caste, and creed, today’s “woke” imperialists “elevate” favored minorities and “relegate” the majority to “second-class status.”  Just as their predecessors felt morally superior to the natives when conquering India, today’s leftist-globalists are “buoyed by moral certainty and a conviction of their right to rule.”

The natural result of this manufactured division is today’s national flag protests across the United Kingdom.  While government authorities enthusiastically support the waving of Ukrainian, Islamic, and “gay pride” flags, they are extremely angry with British citizens who proudly fly England’s Cross of St. George.  “The majority population, already disregarded on questions such as immigration, is told that its own symbols of belonging must be hidden, while the emblems of others are to be privileged and extolled.”  In effect, Britain’s elite ruling class has denied the British “people’s right to recognise themselves.

What is particularly remarkable about Rainsborough’s analysis is its applicability to other nations throughout the West.  An American, Canadian, Australian, German, or Dutch citizen reading his point-by-point rationale for why the United Kingdom is heading for civil war would logically conclude that civil war is also coming closer to home.  Is there any public policy that the British Establishment has implemented to “divide and rule” over citizens that the Establishments of other Western nations haven’t also implemented?  Support for mass illegal immigration, the demonization of patriotism as “fascism,” the criminalization of so-called “hate speech,” widespread censorship, and the systematic persecution of individuals and groups expressing dissent to the government’s official “narratives” — these hallmarks of encroaching totalitarianism flourish across the West.

Parts of France are in flames right now.  After Emmanuel Macron’s government collapsed last week, riots erupted nationwide.  Fed up with the direction of their country under Macron’s rule, French citizens across the political spectrum have temporarily coalesced into a “Block Everything” movement that has shut down major highways and turned the night sky into a medieval mixture of glowing embers and smoke.  It has been reported that the ineffective French president is so desperate to quell the growing revolt that he is considering shutting down social media platforms.

Macron might resist the despotic urge to suspend public communication after witnessing events unfold in Nepal.  The South Asian republic is also in flames right now after more than a week of total chaos.  After large public protests over government corruption could not be controlled, the Nepalese Establishment made the fateful decision to block all social media platforms.  Angry citizens promptly responded by burning down parliament, dragging politicians out of their homes, and beating officials to death.  The government attempted to reverse course and permit social media access, but protesters continue to target anyone who might be considered an “elite.”

French President Macron is acutely aware that the carnage in Nepal could soon find its way to France if he chooses to shut down social media sites.  Leftist-globalists already crossed a similar line in Canada when the government of former prime minister Justin Trudeau seized the bank accounts of “Freedom Convoy” protesters fighting back against COVID edicts and “vaccine” mandates.  Trudeau’s actions demonstrated how willing Western governments are to punish dissent by seizing private property.  Should Macron follow Canada and Nepal’s reckless examples by confiscating bank accounts and stifling public communication, French citizens will no doubt respond with even more intensity.

Perhaps that is why one of the U.K.’s top law enforcement officers, Sir Andy Cooke, is desperately trying to end the criminalization of “offensive” social media speech.  Arguing that British authorities need to “allow people to speak openly without the fear their opinion will put them on the wrong side of the law,” Cooke wants cops to stop acting as free speech “monitors.”  After years of throwing British citizens in jail for expressing opinions, this kind of public policy U-turn suggests that government authorities now regret energizing a free speech movement sweeping across the U.K.

In reaction to the assassination of Charlie Kirk in the United States, Prime Minister Keir Starmer wrote, “We must all be free to debate openly and freely without fear — there can be no justification for political violence.”  

After years of imprisoning people for their speech and regularly censoring social media accounts, Starmer’s hypocrisy set off a chain reaction of national anger in the U.K.  

On Saturday, over a million citizens took to the streets of London in support of free speech.  One Brit declared, “They just made a million Charlie Kirks.”

Could France, Britain, or the United States suffer Nepal’s fate?  Maybe.  The “new imperialists” are dangerously arrogant.  

As Rainsborough writes, “They imagine themselves clever enough — and the public credulous enough — that such policies can be pursued without provoking resistance.  But arrogance is no substitute for foresight.  Once matters tip into open conflict, escalation takes on its own momentum.  Anger is already stirring — and anger, once roused, is the fuse of history.”

If you look around the West, it is impossible to deny that the “fuse of history” is already lit.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 09:10

US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunged In August, But...

With homebuilder sentiment hovering near COVID lockdown lows (at 13-year lows), it is perhaps not surprising that this morning's Housing Starts and Building Permits data is such a shitshow.

• US Housing Starts tumbled 8.5% MoM (worse than the 4.4% MoM decline expected)

• US Building Permits plunged 3.7% MoM (worse than the 0.6% MoM rise expected)

That is the 5th straight month of MoM declines for the more forward-looking permits print.

The MoM declines dragged the SAARs down to post-COVID-lockdown lows...

Across the US, housing starts in the South, the nation’s biggest homebuilding region, fell 21% to the lowest in nearly a year.

Starts also fell in the Midwest, but they rose in the West and Northeast.

Starts & Permits plunged across the board (for both single-family and multi-family units)

Housing starts:

• Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024

• Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May

Housing permits:

• Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023

• Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

However, on the bright side, mortgage rates have been tumbling (near three year lows)...

...and mortgage applications soared almost 30% week-over-week.

Will the rate-cuts expected today (and for the rest of the year) provide the affordability lift that so many hope for?

Bear in mind there is still a vast gap between the current mortgage rates and the effective average rates of homeowners across the nation...

Last month, the number of single-family homes under construction extended its multi-year decline, falling to an annual pace of 611,000, the lowest since early 2021.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:51

Interpreting Zelensky's Shifting Goalposts For Victory

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

He finally accepts the impossibility of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders...

Zelensky recently told ABC News that “Victory, to my mind, Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine, this is to destroy us, occupy, and did he occupy it?...He didn't occupy us, we win, and I think so, because we have our country.”

This is a far cry from the mantra that he’s chanted almost daily for the past 3,5 years since the special operation began about restoring his country’s pre-2014 borders.

Quite clearly, he’s hinting that he’ll accept an end to the conflict that doesn’t achieve that aim, thus going with the political flow.

About that, while Trump might escalate US involvement for the purpose of coercing Putin into freezing the conflict without obtaining any of his stated goals therein, he doesn’t have any illusions about Ukraine restoring its pre-2014 borders.

The same goes for if he tries to make a direct NATO intervention there, whether before or after hostilities cease and regardless of whether it precedes a no-fly zone, a fait accompli. Zelensky is aware of this and doesn’t want to risk Trump’s wrath by demanding the impossible.

Accordingly, he’s now begun the task of correcting domestic and Western perceptions of victory, ergo why he’s now shifting the goalposts by claiming that this has been achieved just by ending the conflict without Russia occupying all of Ukraine. The problem is that Russia never intended to occupy all of Ukraine. This is proven by it never even trying to take Odessa, not to mention making no moves whatsoever on Western Ukraine, with Kiev’s environs being the furthest west that Russia ever went.

To be sure, some of its supporters have fantasized that Russia’s goal is to occupy all of Ukraine up to the Polish border, but this has always been wishful thinking and never a reflection of Russia’s stated goals or even its implied ones as proven by the course of military operations. By spinning this baseless speculation as strategic fact, which inadvertently highlights the curious narrative convergence between some of Russia’s and Ukraine’s supporters, Zelensky hopes to settle for less without “losing face”.

He's motivated not only by concerns about his legacy, but also by fear of an ultra-nationalist (fascist) revolt from segments of civil society and the armed forces in the event that he accepts indefinite Russian control over Ukrainian-claimed territories as part of a peace deal. The irony is that Ukraine would have retained the parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions presently under Russian control had Zelensky accepted the terms of spring 2022’s draft peace treaty that the UK and Poland conspired to sabotage.

The precedent established by the epic failure of summer 2023’s counteroffensive, which was prepared for over a year and followed the influx of tens of billions of dollars of military equipment into Ukraine that the West no longer has to spare, suggests that Zelensky won’t claw anything back no matter what . The conflict will thus end with Russia at the very least keeping the lands that it won in those two regions, if not expanding its gains (whether there and/or elsewhere) depending on how everything soon evolves.

Circling back to Zelensky shifting the goalposts for victory, the significance is therefore that he’s truly willing to freeze the conflict along the frontlines at minimum, with the possibility existing that he might even agree to withdraw from the rest of Donbass if Trump orders him to as part of a deal with Putin. That can’t be taken for granted, however, since he thus far hasn’t pressured him on anything so far. In any case, the military-political dynamics continue to favor Russia, and Zelensky has finally accepted this.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:40

China Tech Hits Four-Year High, Fueled By "Re-accelerating AI Spend & Product Rollouts" 

In recent weeks, our market technicians at The Market Ear desk posed an important question: Are Chinese technology stocks about to blast off after years in the gutter? 

Let's take a step back to mid-August. We had already flagged for Pro Subs that China's Shanghai Composite was "on the verge of a historic breakout."

Fast forward to Wednesday, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 4%, the highest close since Nov 2021, led by Baidu (+16%), with Alibaba, SMIC, and JD.com also rallying.

The Hang Seng Tech Index is up 41% year-to-date, on track for its seventh straight week of gains, far outpacing regional peers. Valuations (21x forward earnings) remain cheaper than the Nasdaq 100 (27x).

Hang Seng Tech v. S&P500 ... 

Some of the key drivers fueling the China tech rally include easing Sino-US tensions, highlighted by a planned Trump-Xi call later this week and a framework for the TikTok deal. Meanwhile, AI rollouts in the world's second-largest economy have accelerated, spanning robotaxis, drones, and domestically produced chips. The DeepSeek innovation shock is also shifting sentiment more positively toward the country.

Here are details (courtesy of Bloomberg) on China tech's massive AI spending spree - and let's not forget, the chips powering that compute are increasingly shifting toward domestic ones (read here)…

China's biggest tech companies are in the middle of a spending spree on AI, as they race against one another and against US firms to conquer a market widely expected to revolutionize how people live and work.

Total capital expenditure from major Chinese internet firms such as Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd., Baidu and JD.com is set to hit $32 billion in 2025, more than doubling from $13 billion in 2023, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report. That has helped create a funding spree in equity and bond markets. Alibaba raised $3.2 billion from a blockbuster convertible bond offering last week, while Tencent turned to the dim sum bond market for 9 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) on Tuesday, its first bond sale in four years.

The latest news fueling optimism was a state television report Tuesday night that China Unicom's Sanjiangyuan data center has signed contracts to deploy AI chips from local firms including Alibaba's chip unit T-Head.

"China tech leaders are visibly re-accelerating AI spend and product rollouts — models, robotaxis, in-house chips — while also proving they can monetize AI faster than many expected," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, who Bloomberg quoted. "With valuations lagging the U.S., investors are starting to pay attention again."

To Chanana’s point, if investors are only just waking up to the explosive rally in China tech, ZeroHedge Pro subs were already strapped in well before liftoff.

Get ZeroHedge Premium... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:00

Tyler Robinson Charged In Kirk Assassination, Urged Trans Boyfriend to "Stay Silent"

Utah prosecutors filed seven charges on Tuesday against 22-year-old Tyler Robinson in the political assassination of conservative thought leader Charlie Kirk nearly one week ago. They're seeking the death penalty. 

The charges include aggravated murder, discharge of a firearm, obstruction of justice, and witness tampering. Prosecutors said Robinson's DNA was found on the rifle's trigger.

Here are the seven charges:

• Count 1: Aggravated murder (capital offense)

• Count 2: Felony reckless discharge of a firearm causing bodily injury

• Count 3: Felony obstruction of justice for hiding the firearm

• Count 4: Felony obstruction of justice for discarding the clothing he wore during the shooting

• Count 5: Witness tampering for asking roommate to DELETE incriminating messages

• Count 6: Witness tampering for demanding the trans roommate stay silent, and NOT speak to the police

• Count 7: Commission of a violent offense in the presence of a child

Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray told reporters earlier that he intends to seek the death penalty against Robinson. This means Robinson will be held without bail. 

"I do not take this decision lightly, and it is a decision I have made independently as county attorney based solely on the available evidence and circumstances and nature of the crime," Gray said.

"Robinson's mother expressed concern to her husband that the suspect shooter looked like Robinson," and Robinson's father agreed, Gray said.

DISGUSTING: ABC’s Matt Gutman says he’s not sure “if we have seen an alleged murder with such specific text messages” that were “very touching, in a way, that I think many of us didn’t expect — a very intimate portrait into this relationship between the suspect’s roommate and the… pic.twitter.com/ulPcxoOwM3

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) September 16, 2025

According to Gray, Robinson's mother told federal agents that "over the last year or so, her son had become more political and had started leaning more to the left, becoming more pro-gay and trans-rights oriented."

Robinson's mother also told police that he "began to date his roommate, a biological male who was transitioning genders," the prosecutor said.

Lance Twiggs the tranny boyfriend of terrorist Tyler Robinson. pic.twitter.com/s3Lrc5QFsc

— Ryan Dawson (@RyLiberty) September 13, 2025

Benny Johnson released the Utah County DA's full text message exchange between Robinson and his transgender boyfriend/roommate after committing the assassination: 

Earlier, federal agents expanded their investigation to include whether pro-trans online groups, "furries" with sexualized animal obsessions, and others tied to Robinson had advance knowledge of the political assassination plot. These groups include communities on the online gaming platform Steam, as well as Armed Queers Salt Lake City.

'Armed Queers' Marxist Revolutionaries Under Investigation For Possible Foreknowledge Of Kirk's Assassination Plot https://t.co/LtPeDRioPF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2025

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 07:45