Russian Drone Hits Chinese Ship In Black Sea, Less Than 24-Hours Before Xi-Putin Summit

Just 24 hours before Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are set to meet for their planned summit in Beijing, soon on the heels of Trump's visit, and a geopolitical wrench may have just been thrown into the works.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian forces have attacked a Chinese ship heading toward a Ukrainian port - a provocative move that threatens to seriously anger Beijing at the worst possible diplomatic moment.

via Ukraine Navy

Early Monday morning, a Russian drone reportedly struck the KSL Deyang, a vessel flying under the Marshall Islands flag, just off the coast of Ukraine, Reuters also confirms.

The ship was reportedly empty at the time while en route to Ukraine's Pivdennyi port in the Odesa region to load up on iron ore concentrate.

A fire was observed on board, but it was quickly brought under control and extinguished, with the vessel escaping severe damage. 

The Ukrainian government is alleging this wasn't some kind of accidental fog-of-war blunder, with President Zelensky immediately calling out Moscow:

“Drones struck Odesa ... and one of the UAVs hit a vessel owned by China. The Russians could not have been unaware of what vessel was at sea,” Zelensky said.

A Ukrainian navy spokesman told AFP that none of the crew members, all Chinese nationals, were injured. He added that the vessel continued on its journey.

“The ship was entering for loading. After it was hit at night by a Shahed, the crew coped with the consequences on their own. Fortunately, no one was injured, and the vessel continued on its way to its port of destination,” navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.

The incident went down just after on Sunday Xi and Putin had just exchanged "congratulatory letters" to set the stage for Putin's upcoming arrival in Beijing. 

The China-owned vessel wasn't the only ship attacked within that span of time. According to The Independent:

Russia attacked a Panama-flagged civilian vessel heading to Ukraine's Chornomorsk port in the southern Odesa region on the Black Sea early on Monday, the regional governor said.

It is one of several ships destined for Ukrainian ports that have been struck by Russian forces in the past day.

The vessel was damaged in the attack, which caused a fire, Governor Oleh Kiper said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that no one had been injured in the incident and that the crew had extinguished the fire. The vessel has continued on its way, the governor added.

TradeWinds is also suggesting a third ship was struck, but few details have been given. Black Sea transit continues to be a dangerous prospect, also with naval mines long being a feature of the 4+ year long war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 12:00

DoJ Establishes "Anti-Weaponization" Fund After Trump Drops $10 Billion Lawsuit Against IRS

Update (1130ET): The DOJ announces that as a part of the settlement agreement in President Donald Trump v. the IRS, the Attorney General established “The Anti-Weaponization Fund” to provide a systematic process to hear and redress claims of others who suffered weaponization and lawfare.

“The machinery of government should never be weaponized against any American, and it is this Department’s intention to make right the wrongs that were previously done while ensuring this never happens again,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “As part of this settlement, we are setting up a lawful process for victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress.”

“The use of government power to target individuals or entities for improper and unlawful political, personal, or ideological reasons should not be tolerated by any Administration,” said Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter. 

Bloomberg reports that the fund will receive $1.776 billion and will come from the judgment fund, which is a perpetual appropriation allowing DOJ to settle and pay cases.

The fund will have the power to issue formal apologies and monetary relief owed to claimants.

The Fund will consist of a Commission of five members appointed by the Attorney General. One Member will be chosen in consultation with congressional leadership. The President can remove any member, but a replacement must be chosen the same way as the replaced member was selected.

*  *  *

As Tom Ozimek detailed earlier via The Epoch Times, President Trump’s attorneys on Monday filed a court notice voluntarily dismissing his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS and the U.S. Treasury Department, in a case that accused the agencies of failing to prevent a former contractor from leaking Trump’s tax returns to the media.

No reason was stated in the May 18 motion, which asks the court to dismiss the case with prejudice, meaning Trump and the other plaintiffs cannot bring the same claims again in the future. A court filing in April indicated that talks were underway to settle the case, with the parties stating at the time that discussions were taking place “productively to avoid protracted ligitation.”

Monday’s filing said the IRS and Treasury Department had neither filed an answer nor moved for summary judgment, allowing the plaintiffs to dismiss the action unilaterally without requiring court approval or government consent.

Trump, along with two ​of his sons and the Trump ⁠family business, sued the IRS ​and the Treasury Department in January, accusing both agencies of failing to take mandatory precautions to prevent former IRS contractor Charles “Chaz” Littlejohn from illegally obtaining access to their tax records and disclosing that information to The New York Times and ProPublica.

The lawsuit alleged that Littlejohn had “staff-like access” to confidential tax return information and exploited weaknesses in IRS safeguards to obtain and leak the records between 2019 and 2020.

Lawsuit Details

The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, sought at least $10 billion in damages and accused the IRS and THE Treasury of violating federal privacy laws governing taxpayer information.

Trump brought the suit in his personal capacity, while Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and the Trump Organization were also named as plaintiffs.

Littlejohn, who at the time was employed by defense contractor Booz Allen Hamilton, was accused of having improperly accessed and disclosed tax information related to Trump and affiliated entities, including business holdings.

The plaintiffs claimed Littlejohn’s actions caused “reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump, and the other plaintiffs’ public standing.”

The lawsuit argued that IRS and Treasury safeguards were so inadequate that the agency took roughly 3 years to detect the breach.

“Defendants had a duty to safeguard and protect Plaintiffs’ confidential tax returns and related tax return information from such unauthorized inspection and public disclosure,” the complaint alleged, pointing to the need for the agencies to have in place appropriate technical, employee screening, and monitoring systems to prevent Littlejohn’s actions.

“Defendants failed to take such mandatory precautions.”

Littlejohn pleaded guilty in October 2023 to one count of unauthorized disclosure of tax return information.

Prosecutors said he used broad search parameters to conceal his activities, uploaded stolen data to a private website to avoid IRS monitoring systems, and stored records on personal devices before providing them to media outlets.

In January 2024, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes sentenced Littlejohn to five years in prison, the maximum sentence permitted under the statute. Reyes described the breach as the “biggest heist” in IRS history.

“It cannot be open season on our elected officials,” Reyes said, noting that Littlejohn purposefully sought his job at least in part to obtain and leak tax information.

Before Monday’s voluntary dismissal, the case had appeared to be moving toward a possible resolution in recent weeks.

In an April 17 filing, attorneys for Trump and the Justice Department jointly requested a 90-day pause in proceedings to allow settlement negotiations to continue.

The IRS and THE Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the dismissal filing.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 11:40

Cuban Foreign Minister Says US Is Building 'Fraudulent Case' For Military Action

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez on May 17 said the United States is building a “fraudulent case” ​to justify economic war and eventual military intervention against the Caribbean island nation.

Cuban troops participate in a military parade in honor of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro at Revolution Square in Havana on Jan. 2, 2017. Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images

His comments were a direct response to a report by Axios, which cited classified U.S. intelligence reports saying Cuba had obtained more than 300 military drones and had discussed using them against the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay, which is at the eastern end of the island. The Epoch Times is unable to verify the Axios report.

“Without any legitimate excuse, the #US government is building, day after day, a fraudulent case to justify a ruthless economic war against the Cuban people and eventual military aggression,” Rodriguez said in a post on X. “Specific media outlets are playing along, promoting slander and leaking insinuations from the U.S. government itself.”

The minister did not specifically mention the Axios report about military drones, and he did not formally deny that Cuba possessed such weapons, which have been used by both Russia and Iran, and Tehran’s proxies, in conflicts in recent years.

“Cuba does not threaten or desire war,” Rodriguez added. “It defends peace and is willing and preparing to confront external aggression in exercise of the right to legitimate self-defense recognized by the UN Charter.”

In a May 18 email to The Epoch Times, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said the U.S. president will always act “to protect Americans, our interests and our homeland from any threat.”

“President Trump ... has taken historic action to rid our backyard of uncontrolled migration, dangerous narco trafficking, organized crime, and hostile foreign military presence,” the department said.

“Cuba, a failed Communist state which has long hosted hostile foreign military, intelligence and terror groups, presents a significant threat to our national security that President Trump will not allow to devolve into a greater crisis to the safety and security of Americans.”

In a May 17 post on X, Monroe County Sheriff’s office, which covers the Florida Keys, said, “Monroe County Sheriff Rick Ramsay has not been contacted by any federal or state authorities regarding news reports Sunday of any possible military action taken by Cuba against the U.S. military base in Cuba at Guantanamo Bay using drones.”

The post quoted Ramsay as saying he did not believe there was any reason to be concerned.

“I am confident I will be notified if anything does change and I will alert the public,” Ramsay added.

The Cuban ambassador to the United Nations, Ernesto Soberón, said in a May 17 post on X that the people of Cuba “stand ready to defend their territory, their sovereignty, and their independence.”

“Cuba would never initiate an attack on any country, let alone the United States,” Eva Golinger, an attorney and writer based in New York, said in a May 17 post on X. “They do, however, have the right to self defense under international law, as all countries do, if they are attacked.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has previously said Cuba persecutes and tortures political opponents, provides a safe haven for terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and constitutes an “extraordinary threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy.”

Last week, Cuba said it poses no threat to U.S. national security and that there are no legitimate grounds for it to remain on the list of state sponsors of terrorism.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe and other officials visited Cuba on May 14, at the invitation of the communist regime in Havana. At the time, the U.S. Embassy in Cuba referred The Epoch Times to the White House for comment, which in turn referred it to the CIA. The CIA didn’t respond to an email seeking comment on that meeting.

Fuel Crisis

Cuban Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy said on May 13 that the country has completely run out of diesel and heavy fuel oil, and its power grid has entered a critical state.

O Levy said Cuba had not received any oil imports since December, until Russia sent 100,000 tons (about 700,000 barrels) of crude last month.

Trump said on Truth Social last week that Cuba was asking for help and that the two countries were going to talk.

Newly erected holding tents for detained migrants at the U.S. Naval Station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on Feb. 21, 2025. U.S. Navy/AFN Guantanamo Bay Public Affairs via Reuters

The regime in Cuba was founded in 1959 after rebels led by Fidel Castro ousted U.S.-backed leader Fulgencio Batista. Under Castro’s leadership, the regime moved toward Marxism-Leninism and consolidated one-party communist rule in the years that followed. Cuba was closely allied with the Soviet Union until the bloc’s collapse in the early 1990s.

Cuba was heavily reliant on Venezuelan oil, supplied by former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s socialist regime, but that supply was stopped after he was ousted in January and replaced by interim leader Delcy Rodríguez.

Mexico also stopped sending oil, under pressure from the United States.

A watch tower at Camp X-Ray, which was the first detention facility to hold what the U.S. government described as "enemy combatants," at the U.S. Naval Station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on June 27, 2013. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The U.S. State Department said in a May 13 post on X that it “is publicly restating the United States’ generous offer to provide additional direct humanitarian assistance to the Cuban people.”

“The Cuban regime must decide whether to accept our offer or deny life-saving help for the Cuban people, who desperately need it,” the State Department said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 11:20

"Scale Matters": NextEra, Dominion To Merge In Utility Megadeal Aimed At Grid Expansion To Power AI Boom

As power demand surges on the back of data-center buildouts, with hyperscalers expected to unleash about $700 billion in capex this year to expand AI infrastructure and maintain an edge over China in the AI compute race, NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy are moving to scale up. The utilities agreed to a $67 billion all-stock merger that would create the world's largest regulated electric utility network.

Dominion shareholders will receive .8138 NextEra shares for each Dominion share, leaving NextEra investors with about 74.5% of the combined company and Dominion holders with 25.5%. The merged utility would be more than 80% regulated, serve 10 million customer accounts, and control about 110 gigawatts of generation capacity across the U.S. East Coast, from Florida to a cluster of data centers in Northern Virginia.

NextEra positioned the merger with Dominion as a way to quickly scale power grids along the East Coast while lowering power bills, as the era of AI data center buildouts only begins to accelerate: 

With growth drivers evenly balanced between regulated and long-term contracted businesses and more than 130 GW of large-load opportunities in its pipeline, the combined company will have a broader opportunity set, more ways to grow and the scale, balance sheet and best-in-class operating, supply chain, construction and technology capabilities to deliver the generation, transmission and grid investments needed to serve customers, support economic growth and cost-effectively meet surging power demand while keeping bills affordable.

"The transaction is structured as a 100% stock-for-stock transaction and is expected to be tax-free to shareholders. The combined company will operate under the NextEra Energy name and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol NEE," NextEra wrote in the press release.

NextEra CEO John Ketchum said the merger is a "historic moment" and comes as "electricity demand is rising faster than it has in decades."

Ketchum continued:

We are bringing NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy together because scale matters more than ever— not for the sake of size, but because scale translates into capital and operating efficiencies. It enables us to buy, build, finance and operate more efficiently, which translates into more affordable electricity for our customers in the long run.

The way the merger is framed appears aimed at federal regulators, who have seen growing resistance to data centers at the local level amid soaring power bills. It is worth noting that on some grids, especially in the Mid-Atlantic, backfiring green policies have collided with data-center buildouts and surging demand, sending power prices sky-high.

This earnings season was an eye-opener, as we noted that hyperscalers will deploy $700 billion in capex this year to support AI infrastructure.

In markets, shares of Dominion Energy soared 15%, while shares of NextEra remained flat.

Evercore ISI analyst Nicholas Amicucci noted that the merger will "likely face a significant amount of regulatory scrutiny."

The way the merger is framed, as a means of scaling grids and supporting data-center buildouts while pitching affordable household power prices, is music to the ears of federal regulators.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 10:45

"Shockingly Bad" Chinese Econ Data Stuns Wall Street, Sparks Hard Landing Concerns

Confirming our Sunday preview, overnight China reported growth data which slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines, retail sales missing sales and growing at the weakest rate in 4 years while industrial production rose at the slowest pace in three years, calling into question Beijing's reluctance to add stimulus to the economy as a global energy crisis hits factories and consumers across the world.

China's Monday data dump of official data on Monday painted a picture of an economy where booming exports no longer offset deteriorating consumption at home, prompting analysts at banks including Nomura and SocGen to urge bolder measures in support of growth.

As shown in the chart below, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly shrank 1.6% in the first four months of 2026 from a year earlier, while industrial production grew just 4.1% last month, the weakest in almost three years. Retail sales also missed forecasts and rose just 0.2% in April, the worst reading since they contracted in December 2022, when China reopened from Covid.

What is shocking is that it is common knowledge that Beijing traditionally massages its economic data to present itself in the rosiest possible light: the fact that it allowed data this ugly would suggest that the picture on the ground is much uglier. 

Goldman's Delta One head Rich Privorotsky captured this sentiment well, writing this morning that "overnight news from China showed economic data materially below expectations. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all missed meaningfully. It’s hard to tell whether this reflects genuine demand destruction but perhaps it helps explain how the oil market has managed to balance despite ongoing supply concerns. I genuinely can’t remember a period when Chinese data, which tends to be heavily massaged, missed by anything close to this magnitude. Negative read through for consumption related categories."

Remarkably, not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted as pessimistic a reading for industry, retail sales and investment. The disappointing performance of the world’s second-biggest economy last month is a reminder of its domestic vulnerabilities, after a global artificial intelligence investment boom sent trade soaring.

The breadth of the acute slowdown in April has put the prospect of a more aggressive stimulus back on the agenda after China stood out in its resilience to the fallout from the Iran war. The government pulled back on fiscal spending in March, while the central bank has steered clear of even hinting at any further loosening in policy, amid ample market liquidity and weak demand for credit. 

Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, described the deterioration of economic indicators as “a normal fluctuation from month to month.” But he also highlighted challenges such as a persistent imbalance between supply and demand as well as a complex global environment.

Investment plunged by around 8% in April from a year earlier, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics, returning to a similar pace of decline seen in the second half of 2025. Manufacturing and infrastructure investment both weakened, while private investment plummeted

In response to the dismal data, Nomura economists wrote that authorities “might need to step up policy support for stabilizing growth,” adding that “Beijing has no room for complacency.”

A rising number of economists has been forecasting the People’s Bank of China won’t lower interest rates this year after the oil shock pushed up inflation expectations, though many still expect a cut to lenders’ reserve requirement ratio. The PBOC last lowered the policy rate and the RRR at the peak of the trade tensions with the US a year ago. 

Authorities are still likely to take a patient approach and avoid rushing out response to just one month of data. The Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo will convene in July to review economic growth and policies, making it the next potential window for any adjustment in stimulus. 

“The stance still seems to be to play cautiously,” said Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Our base case is no extra stimulus for the economy for the time being.”

Even though many manufacturers are struggling to cope with higher raw material costs, overall exports soared as Chinese tech products found willing buyers abroad. Greater demand for green energy products is also benefiting China. But a sustained weakening of investment and consumption at home could still bring risks to Beijing’s goal of achieving 4.5% to 5% artificial growth this year.

The April data suggest gross domestic product may expand as little as 4.1% on-year in the second quarter, which could prompt incremental policy easing, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. For now, Goldman is maintaining its forecast for a GDP gain of 4.7% in April-June, compared with 5% in the first three months of the year.

The data “should keep PBOC easing – RRR and even rate cuts – firmly on the table, while fiscal top-up may come later,” SocGen's head China economist Wei Yao wrote in a note.

The plunging manufacturing data comes at a time of continued dismal credit demand and heavy rainfall in southern China, which could be behind the sharp fall in capital spending, Goldman economist Lisheng Wang said in a note (available to pro subs here).

Statistical adjustment is another potential factor. Many economists believe authorities took measures to correct over-reporting of the data in late 2025. Such a change may have exaggerated the volatility of the figures recently, as the on-year contraction in steel and cement output narrowed in April, according to Goldman Sachs. 

The consumer economy has meanwhile continued to struggle as households spent less on items as varied as autos and furniture. Car sales plunged 15% in April from a year earlier, the worst contraction since mid-2022, when the country was under Covid restrictions. The government has scaled back subsidies for electric vehicle purchases this year, while the Iran oil shock hurt sales of gasoline-powered cars. 

Purchases of home appliances and furniture — products that used to be buoyed by government subsidies — declined at a double-digit pace. Gold, silver and jewelry sales plummeted 21% — a huge reversal from earlier this year and 2025, when soaring prices for precious metals led to a speculative investment frenzy.

The industrial sector is also getting more lopsided as export-driven sectors lead the growth while industries that relied on domestic sales lagged. The production of electronics, lifted by soaring global demand for AI chips, expanded 15.6% in April, the fastest pace in two years.

The auto industry also expanded briskly at 9.2%, as overseas EV sales took off. Meanwhile, commodities linked to real estate and construction — such as cement, glass and steel — recorded declines, while crude oil processing volume fell, which ING Bank economist Lynn Song attributed to the war’s impact

Soaring chip prices may partly explain why factory output weakened even as exports surged.  While industrial production is reported after an adjustment made for inflation, sales abroad are calculated in nominal terms, making it hard to separate movements in prices versus volumes. Surging costs of chips and electronics accounted for about half of April’s 14% headline export growth, according to Nomura. 

“China still looks like a two-speed economy: strong in strategic manufacturing and exports, but weak where household confidence matters most,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “The concern is not just that activity missed, but that the weakness is broadening across the domestic side of the economy.”

There is one silver lining when it comes to the Chinese economy: exports are expected to remain strong after climbing 15% in the first four months from a year ago. Stabilizing trade ties with the US, reinforced by President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, further bolster the outlook.

But a turnaround is nowhere in sight for domestic consumption. Chinese households net repaid the most loans in April since comparable data going back to 2010.

“Policy space remains ample,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings. “The April data are less a sign of deterioration than a trigger for more proactive easing — which should help anchor growth and support a gradual recovery into the second half of the year.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 10:30

Key Events This Week: Nvidia Earnings, FOMC Minutes And Global PMIs

Looking at the week ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, with a market capitalisation now of $5.46tn, will be the main event. In economics, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday, along with inflation data from Canada tomorrow, the UK on Wednesday, and Japan on Friday. From central banks, the highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Those flash PMIs will be important, as they’re one of the first indicators on how the global economy has performed this month, so will be scrutinized for any signs of how the war in Iran is impacting activity and prices.

The US calendar is relatively light, with the NAHB housing market index today expected to remain unchanged at a cyclically low 34, followed by Tuesday’s pending home sales, where a modest +1.0% increase is anticipated (from +1.5% previously). Attention will then turn to Thursday’s April housing activity data, where housing starts are expected to ease to an annualized pace of 1.425mn (from 1.502mn), while permits are projected to tick higher to 1.375mn (from 1.363mn). All estimates are according to our economists.

Beyond housing, Thursday is the key day for macro releases. The weekly initial jobless claims are expected to edge slightly lower to 209k (from 211k). The same day will also bring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, where our economists expect a pullback to +21.0 (from +26.7), alongside the flash PMIs. In the US, manufacturing is expected to soften marginally to 53.7 (from 54.5), while services are seen ticking up to 51.5 (from 51.0).

In contrast to consumer sentiment—which will see an updated reading of the Michigan survey on Friday (expected at 48.2 versus 49.8 previously)—business surveys have generally remained more resilient despite the energy shock. That said, some indicators have shown rising input costs and lengthening delivery times, developments that could signal renewed inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.

Turning to central bank communications, the Fed speaker slate is relatively limited but still notable. Governor Waller is scheduled to participate in an ECB policy panel tomorrow, alongside comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker (voter) on the outlook. On Wednesday, Vice Chair Barr will discuss consumer financial health metrics, while the Fed will also publish the minutes from the April FOMC meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) will follow on Thursday with remarks on the economy, before Governor Waller rounds out the week with a further appearance on Friday.

In Europe, the highlights will include the UK labour market report tomorrow and inflation data on Wednesday. DB's UK economist expects headline CPI to slow to 2.98% YoY and core CPI to fall to 2.61% YoY. More detail and forecasts are in the full inflation spotlight note here. The UK will also release the GfK May consumer confidence index and April retail sales on Friday. Other notable European releases include Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and Germany’s Ifo survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan faces a busy week, with key data including Q1 GDP tomorrow and April nationwide CPI on Friday. Our Chief Japan economist expects positive real growth of an annualised 1.3% QoQ for the GDP report and sees core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, holding at 1.8% YoY, alongside a retreat in core-core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, to 2.2% (from 2.4% in March). 

Finally, beyond Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, results are also due from major US retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and TJX.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day calendar of the week's main events:

Monday May 18

• Data: US May New York Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index, March total net TIC flows, China April retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Italy March trade balance
• Central banks: BoE's Greene and Mann speak
• Earnings: Baidu, Ryanair Holdings
• Other: G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors (through May 19)

Tuesday May 19

• Data: US April pending home sales, UK March average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, April jobless claims change, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilisation, Eurozone March trade balance, Canada April CPI, March building permits
• Central banks: Fed's Waller speaks, ECB's Lane and Makhlouf speak, BoE's Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Home Depot, Amer Sports

Wednesday May 20

• Data: UK April CPI, RPI, PPI, March house price index, Germany April PPI, Denmark Q1 GDP
• Central banks: FOMC minutes, Fed's Paulson and Barr speak, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
• Earnings: NVIDIA, Analog Devices, TJX, Lowe's, Intuit, Target, Experian, Marks & Spencer
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bonds ($16bn)

Thursday May 21

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and Eurozone May preliminary PMIs, US May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, April housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, Japan April trade balance, March core machine orders, Italy March current account balance, ECB March current account, Eurozone March construction output, Q1 labour costs, May consumer confidence, Australia April labour force survey
• Central banks: ECB's Villeroy speaks, BoJ's Koeda speaks, BoE's Taylor speaks
• Earnings: Walmart, Deere, Generali, Ross Stores, Take-Two, BT, Zoom, Workday
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $19bn)

Friday May 22

• Data: US May Kansas City Fed services activity, UK May GfK consumer confidence, April retail sales, public finances, Japan April national CPI, Germany June GfK consumer confidence, May Ifo survey, France May business confidence, Canada March retail sales, April industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB's Vujcic, Kazimir, Muller and Lane speak
• Earnings: Cie Financiere Richemont, Lenovo

Taking a look at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Waller and Barr and Presidents Paulson and Barkin. The minutes to the FOMC’s April meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, May 18 

• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus 34, last 34)

Tuesday, May 19 

• 08:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in a panel at the European Central Bank. Moderated Q&A is expected. On April 17th, Waller cautioned that higher oil prices as a result of the Iran war could lead to a “more lasting increase in inflation.” Waller noted that “if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” that could require “maintaining the policy rate at the current target range.”
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, April (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.5%)
• 07:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak about the economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Markets Conference. Text and audience Q&A are expected. On March 27th, Paulson said that there was “a little bit more of a risk that the transmission of higher fuel prices, higher fertilizer prices, into inflation expectations is faster and maybe a little bit more durable.” That said, Paulson also noted that “for [all these shocks] to turn into sustained inflation, you need a mechanism that keeps that going” and that “on the wage-setting side, it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of impetus that would make that happen now.”

Wednesday, May 20 

• 09:15 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver a speech on consumer financial health at a conference in Atlanta, Georgia. Text is expected. On May 5th, Barr said that “the longer [the Iran war] goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we’re seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy, and then we have to worry more.” Barr noted that “we’re in a situation right now where we really need to wait and see to understand what direction [the conflict] is going.”
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, April 28-29 meeting: At its April meeting, the FOMC left the fed funds rate and the policy guidance in its statement unchanged. Presidents Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari dissented against the implicit easing bias in the standing policy guidance, while Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 25bp cut. Chair Powell said that the number of FOMC participants who could support moving to balanced guidance has increased since March and that the center of the FOMC “is moving toward a more neutral” outlook for future rate changes, but most felt making a change now was unnecessary. We pushed back our expectations for Fed cuts by one quarter to December and March. With energy cost passthrough likely to keep year-over-year core PCE inflation closer to 3% than 2% all year, we think that a combination of lower monthly inflation prints after the oil shock fades and further labor market softening will likely be needed for the FOMC to cut this year. We still expect that bar to be met but now expect it to take a bit longer.

Thursday, May 21 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 16 (GS 210k, consensus 210k, last 211k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 9 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,782k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS 20.0, consensus 18.0, last 26.7)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS -3.5%, consensus -5.5%, last +10.8%) 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 53.7, last 54.5); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 51.0)
• 12:20 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech at the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Raleigh, North Carolina. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, May 22 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May final (GS 48.2, consensus 48.3, last 48.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)
• 10:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks; Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a lecture on the economic outlook at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management in Germany. Text and moderated Q&A are expected.

Source: Goldman, DB

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 09:25

"Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance In 18 Months," Says Chamath Palihapitiya

In an interview with Fox News' Bret Baier that aired Friday, President Trump said that he doesn't want "to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war" over Taiwan.

"I'm not looking to have somebody to go independent and, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war," Trump told Baier. "I'm not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down."

Taiwan has been a major point of friction between Washington and Beijing. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC News that the issue was not a key topic during Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The initial White House readout of the summit also did not mention Taiwan, home to the world's most advanced semiconductor production.

Taiwan is strategically important for three main reasons:

• It is indispensable to global semiconductor production.

• It sits at the center of the Western Pacific security architecture.

• It remains a major flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

In other words, Taiwan is critically important to the U.S. because it is not only a semiconductor production supernode, but also a geopolitical fortress against China and a potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

However, Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital and part of the All-In podcast, pointed out that Taiwan could be on track to lose one of its most strategic advantages in the next 18 months.

Palihapitiya continued:

We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today.

Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us.

And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed.

I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically.

When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today.

Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.

Chamath: Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance in 18 Months@chamath:

“ We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today.

Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what… pic.twitter.com/XL2UqRIQyi

— The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) May 17, 2026

Palihapitiya's take on the rise of U.S. chip fabs, many of which are based in Arizona and could soon turn the state into the new Taiwan, drew backlash on X, notably from geopolitical risk analyst Ian Bremmer, who said, "This is Trump's perspective: the only thing that matters about Taiwan is the chips. Very different from the view of U.S. allies in the region: Japan, South Korea, and Australia."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:54

"Please Work Remote": NYC Braces For Commuter Chaos With Ongoing LIRR Strike

Welcome to day three of the Long Island Rail Road strike, which is set to cause commuter chaos this morning in the New York City area, as more than 3,500 workers across five unions walked off the job Saturday after contract talks with the MTA collapsed.

Negotiations between the MTA and unions resumed Sunday and are set to continue Monday morning.

LIRR service remains suspended due to the strike. Please work from home if you can. If you must travel today, travel alternatives include:

• Limited shuttle bus service to/from six Long Island locations to Queens subway stations, for both the AM and PM rush hour.
• NICE Bus…

— LIRR (@LIRR) May 18, 2026

The MTA has urged riders to work remotely today and is deploying up to 275 free shuttle buses, though that capacity only covers a tiny fraction of the LIRR's nearly 300,000 weekday riders.

It seems that Socialist NYC Mayor Mandami finally got his promise of free buses, but at the cost of a strike and commuter chaos.

The disruption could also snarl travel to Long Island beach destinations over Memorial Day weekend, including the Hamptons.

Some employers, including JPMorgan and Citigroup, have advised affected workers to consider remote work this week.

The National Mediation Board, a federal agency that oversees labor disputes, summoned both sides late Sunday evening to continue negotiations, but no resolution was found. Talks are expected later today.

A spokesman for the International Brotherhood of Teamsters stated that their wage proposal was reasonable and that two federal review panels had sided with them.

"We remain ready to negotiate a fair agreement at any time and get back to work on behalf of Long Island commuters," the statement said.

The union wrote on X, "After more than three years with no raises, LIRR's union workers, including 500 Teamsters locomotive engineers, will not make any more sacrifices to cover for the MTA's mismanagement."

Rail Teamsters from the @BLET and their union coalition remain on strike at the MTA-owned Long Island Rail Road.

After more than three years with no raises, LIRR’s union workers, including 500 Teamsters locomotive engineers, will not make any more sacrifices to cover for the… pic.twitter.com/acb6jGY6Fj

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) May 17, 2026

What an absolute mess for commuters this morning.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:45

Futures Slide After Bond Yields, Oil Prices Jump Around The Globe

Futures are lower, but off their overnight lows as markets focus on soaring global yields after US/Iran talk progress remains stalled (but at least armed hostilities did not resume contrary to some speculation). Yields also spiked on rising oil prices, concerns of an extra budget in Japan and continued political chaos in the UK. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are -0.5%, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.3%; semis are bid, Mag7 are mostly lower ex-NVDA which reports earnings this week. Semis / AI are the bullish story pre-mkt with most names flat to down with the market expressing a slight preference for Defensives over Cyclicals. In other news, US-China will set up a trade/investment board, and China will increase Ag purchases from the US. Bond yields are flat to +1bp with the 10Y at 4.60% after last week's meltup;Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move on what may have been another round of BOJ intervention. Treasuries and European bonds were little changed, while the dollar was set to snap a five-day run of wins as it reverses overnight gains. In commodities, Energy is leading but crude prices have cut their gains: Brent trades around $11 after Trump warned that the “clock is ticking” for Iran to reach a deal that will end the war. Metals are weaker and Ags are bid. Today's macro data focus is on TIC, housing price index, and NY Fed activity indicator. 

In premarket trading, Nvidia is the only Mag 7 member rising: the $6 trillion semiconductor giant is slated to report first quarter results on Wednesday (Nvidia +0.8%, Alphabet -0.6%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -0.8%, Meta -0.9%, Amazon -1%, Tesla -1.1%)

• Shares in UnitedHealth (UNH) fall 5.3% after Berkshire Hathaway exited its stake in the health insurer. The conglomerate also disclosed that it amassed a $2.6 billion stake in Delta Air Lines (DAL), boosting the carrier’s shares by 2.4%.
• EchoStar (SATS), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rise as billionaire Elon Musk said he’s back in Texas working on plans for an initial public offering of SpaceX.
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) falls 10% after the drugmaker’s phase 3 data for fianlimab in metastatic melanoma fell short of expectations. Citi downgraded its rating on the stock following the “disappointing” trial update.

The standoff in the Middle East shows no signs of easing after more than two months, puncturing an AI-driven rally that has pushed global stocks to record highs. Over the weekend, Trump said the “clock is ticking” for Iran to reach a deal, while G7 finance chiefs’ two-day meeting in Paris starts today, focusing on mounting imbalances and rare earths. Meanwhile, bond yields have climbed to levels seen decades ago on fears that central banks will lift interest rates and governments will ramp up borrowing to cushion the blow from rising energy prices. Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move.

“Bonds were more nervous about the inflation picture and the equity market was comforted and encouraged by the very strong earnings and AI-led optimism,” said Willem Sels, global chief investment officer at HSBC Private Bank. “What you now have is a bit of a catch-up movement in the equity market, a bit of an exhaustion of the momentum.”

As a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran extends past 40 days and a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive, President Donald Trump expressed frustration with Tehran and told it the “clock is ticking.” Earlier, drones targeted a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.

Elsewhere, at a time when markets expect the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh to hike rates as soon as December, minutes from last month’s meeting due for release Wednesday will give investors clues about policymakers’ thinking. “The absence of a near-term bullish catalyst can continue to pressure bonds, with spillover effects to exuberant equities,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro at Nuveen. “Signs of conflict de-escalation are likely needed to assuage jittery markets.” 

Ed Yardeni wrote that the Fed needed to catch up with bond markets or risk losing control of borrowing costs. If the Fed fails to remove its easing bias, “investors will conclude that the central bank is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium,” Yardeni wrote. “We expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and shift to a tightening policy stance.”

Meanwhile, the higher yields rise, the more bullish Wall Street strategists turn. Six out of the 21 strategists polled by Bloomberg have raised their target for the S&P 500 over the past month. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson retains high conviction of an earnings recovery and broadening thesis, while noting the 10-year yield at the critical 4.50% threshold could be more of a “noticeable headwind” for equity multiples.

Bloomberg News interviewed 32 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe who were overwhelmingly bullish, with 80% expecting equities to outperform other asset classes over the next three to six months. The top investment choice for about half of these buy-side professionals is megacap tech and AI stocks. Most investors interviewed pointed to the yield on 30-year Treasuries holding sustainably above 5% as the biggest threat to stocks. Perhaps they have been reading Michael Hartnett who has repeatedly said 5% on the 30Y is the "door to doom."

And while the tech-fueled stock rally is looking bubble-like to some investors, timing the pop is tough. Some are turning to exotic options that better protect against an eventual slump. Single-stock volatility — especially in parts of the tech sector such as semiconductors — far outpace relatively mild increases in indexes. 

d

In Europe, consumer and auto shares drove a 0.4% decline in the Stoxx 600, although stocks have trimmed some early declines Monday as last week’s selloff in bonds eased and energy shares outperformed.  Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Technoprobe shares rise as much as 7.7% to a record high, extending last week’s results-driven gains after an upgrade for the chip-testing equipment maker from Bank of America, which lifted its target price to a Street-high of €38
• Sonova shares rise as much as 4.4%, the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the Swiss hearing-aid maker’s full-year adjusted Ebita beat the average analyst estimate
• FLSmidth gains as much as 5.3%, the most since April 8, after Nordea and Danske Bank upgraded their views on the Danish industrial equipment maker to buy from hold, with Nordea quoting a positive risk/reward profile
• Publicis shares climb as much as 5.8% on Monday after the advertising agency increased its earnings growth targets for the next two years, following a $2.2 billion deal to buy US-based data collaboration platform LiveRamp
• Draegerwerk shares rise as much as 4.7%, rebounding from a four-month low, after the medical and safety equipment maker was upgraded
• Deutsche Boerse shares outperformed Monday after a regulatory filing showed Chris Hohn’s activist hedge fund TCI Fund Management has increased its voting rights in the German market operator to 5.15%
• Smart Eye rises as much as 12%, the most since November, after the Swedish eye-tracking technology company reported what DNB Carnegie called a “solid” set of results, with Ebitda showing a “clear improvement”
• Ipsen shares drop as much as 5.6%, the most since July last year, following the French biopharma company’s trial data for its experimental frown-lines treatment corabotase
• Future shares slide as much as 10% after Stifel downgrades the publisher to hold from buy, saying it will take time for the firm to find new ways to monetize its content, as new AI tools threaten the search market
• Alleima falls as much as 7.5%, the most since January, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri recommended in a column that readers sell shares in the specialty steels group, flagging a weakening order book and rising short interest
• Advanced Medical Solutions shares drop as much as 24%, the most since September 2023, after TA Associates confirmed late on Friday that it won’t make an offer for the London-listed firm

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a second session, as stalled progress on ending the Iran war and higher oil prices intensified concerns about inflation and economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.4%, before paring losses. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi Corp. were among the biggest contributors to the losses. Benchmarks in Indonesia, Hong Kong and Australia all fell over 1%. Bucking the trend, South Korean stocks reversed losses of as much as 4.7%, as optimism over progress in Samsung Electronics Co.’s labor talks helped offset pressure from rising bond yields. Behind the global debt selloff and stock market weakness was a third consecutive day of oil price gains, after President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Iran to resolve the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Following the recent rally driven by optimism about artificial intelligence, equities investors are now shifting their attention back to the risk of worsening inflation. Separately, Chinese shares fell after data showed the country’s economic growth slowed across the board in April. 

In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%, while the pound takes top spot among G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% against the greenback. The yen is lagging.

In rates, treasuries erased an earlier drop, leaving US 10-year yields flat at 4.60%. US yields are cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with spreads trading broadly within a basis point of Friday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.6% with gilts outperforming by around 3bp in the sector. Bunds are steady, while gilts are outperforming, with UK 10-year yields down 3 bps to 5.14% as UK gilts steadied after last week’s sharp selloff.  During Asia session, Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move as inflation fears continue to ripple through global bond market. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names. Estimates from dealers for this week point to about $40 billion in bond sales. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday)/

In commodities, Brent crude futures pulled back from their overnight highs to trade around $110 a barrel, helping arrest a selloff in global government bonds.

Economic data slate includes May New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), May NAHB housing market index (10am) and March TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate empty for the session

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX +0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.6%
• VIX +0.6 points at 19
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1201.01
• euro +0.1% at $1.1639
• WTI crude +1.1% at $106.54/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump told Axios in a phone call that "the clock is ticking" for Iran and warned that if the Iranian regime doesn't come with a better offer for a deal, "they are going to get hit much harder." Axios
• Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
• China’s industrial output and retail sales growth slowed sharply last month while investment dropped as policymakers warned that geopolitical conflicts were creating a “severe” global economic environment. Industrial production rose 4.1 per cent in April from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday. FT
• Chinese artificial intelligence groups have moved ahead of US rivals in video generation, a key battleground in generative AI in which there is rapid uptake across advertising, ecommerce and entertainment. FT
• China agreed to buy at least $17 billion of farm products annually through 2028 and establish trade and investment boards, the US announced. Earlier, Beijing said the two countries will also reduce tariffs on certain goods. BBG
• Japan's government is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic blow from the Middle East war. Any additional debt issuance would further strain Japan's ‌already worsening finances and may accelerate rises in long-term interest rates. RTRS
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni asked the European Commission to extend greater latitude within European Union budget rules to measures aimed at tackling rising energy costs. Italy’s government is seeking to include investments and extraordinary measures to address the energy crisis in the so-called national safeguard clause. BBG
• NextEra is said to be in talks to buy Dominion in a mostly stock deal valuing the utility at about $66 billion. BBG
• Anthropic agreed to brief members of the Financial Stability Board on its AI model Mythos. FT
• Over 60 allies of US President Trump have urged him to test and approve the most powerful AI models before its released: Axios 
• Central banks’ gold purchases are expected to pick up to average 60 tons a month over 2026. We maintain a bullish target for prices to climb to $5,400 an ounce by the end of the year. Goldman
• Trump told Fortune he thinks US could sell Intel (INTC) shares slowly over time without tanking the stock market. He added that "Intel should be the biggest company in the world right now... If I had been president when all these companies started sending their chips in from China, I would have put a tariff on that would have protected Intel."

Iran Headlines

• US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
• US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
• Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that "we don't have much time", adding that both countries "keep changing their goalposts".
• Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
• Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
• Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
• Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
• Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas's armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
• UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
• Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the red after last Friday's losses on Wall St, and with risk sentiment sapped as oil prices and yields extended higher after US President Trump warned the clock was ticking on Iran, heading into a meeting on Tuesday with his national security team to discuss possible options for military action, while participants in the region also digest disappointing Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was dragged lower amid losses across nearly all sectors aside from energy, and with sentiment not helped by disappointing data from Australia's largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 resumed its pullback from last week's record highs amid higher oil prices and the anticipation of the BoJ to resume rate normalisation next month. KOSPI was volatile as the index initially suffered heavy losses and the Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar after KOSPI 200 futures dropped 5.0% with jitters seen as Samsung Electronics faces an 18-day strike involving nearly 45,000 of Samsung’s unionised workers starting on May 21st. The index then staged a firm rebound alongside Samsung shares after the union said it would engage in government-mediated pay talks, and a court was said to partially accept an injunction request against the union's planned strike, although the union later announced that it would proceed with the strike as planned. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the disappointing activity data in which Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Ex-Rural Investment all missed forecasts, with the latter showing a surprise contraction, while the stats bureau noted the external situation is complex and that China's economic foundation still needs to be consolidated.

Top Asian news

• China State Council said it will leverage national venture capital guidance fund to increase support for entrepreneurship in tech innovation.
• Chinese MIIT Minister Li Lecheng said China should upgrade “outdated” industries, and not scrap them, because manufacturing remains the backbone of the economy.
• China’s State Administration for Market Regulation set 34 priorities for this year to support private sector growth, with a focus on fair competition, legal protections and efficient regulation.
• China's stats bureau said the external situation is complex and China's economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, while it added that China is to continue to optimise supply and that the domestic supply-demand imbalance remains prominent. China's stats bureau said China will continue to expand the domestic demand and should implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. Furthermore, it said the international situation remains grim and complicated as of April, and the world economic recovery is facing greater headwinds, as well as stated that the will and capacity of people to spend needs improving.
• Japan is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to soften the blow from the Middle East conflict, according to sources cited by Reuters. A separate report confirmed that Japanese PM Takaichi was set to announce an extra Japan budget. However, conflicting comments by Japanese Finance Minister Katayama followed, stating that they are not yet at a stage to talk about the specifics of an extra budget.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said they are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency, including long-term rates. No comment on FX intervention.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened entirely in the red this morning, given the lack of US-Iran progress, and further punchy rhetoric from President Trump. Over the weekend, he stated that the clock is ticking for Iran, though he declined to give a specific deadline. Since then, bourses have clambered off lows amidst positive geopolitical updates; notably, Iran’s Baghaei suggesting that talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. Moreover, Pakistani sources suggested that Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night.  European sectors opened with a clear negative bias, but this picture is now a little more mixed. Energy takes pole position, benefiting from higher underlying crude prices; Media and Utilities complete the top three. At the bottom of the pile reside cyclical sectors, such as Autos and Travel & Leisure. The latter has been pressured by post-earning losses in Ryanair after reporting in-line metrics, but warned that flat fares may put pressure on profits.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer has decided not to announce a departure timetable unless and until Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, ITV's Peston reported.
• UK Deputy PM Lammy said PM Starmer will not be announcing a timetable for departure, speaking to Sky News.
• UK PM Starmer was reportedly mulling whether he would bring more government stability by announcing a timetable for his departure and a leadership election, according to ITV.
• Former UK Health Secretary Streeting vowed to stand in any Labour Party leadership contest to oust UK PM Starmer. In relevant news, Streeting said he would battle Manchester Mayor Burnham for the Labour leadership and called for the UK to rejoin the EU, while Burnham played down rejoining the EU.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly to lay out more details in the week ahead regarding proposals to ease bank regulations that were imposed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 GFC.
• Fitch affirmed Germany's sovereign rating at AAA; Outlook Stable, while DBRS maintained Portugal at A (high), Outlook Raised to Positive.

FX

• FX shows a risk-on bias with high-beta outperforming and DXY in the red.
• DXY firmed at the Asia reopen and rose to a 99.40 peak as participants digested US President Trump’s remarks over the weekend, “the clock is ticking for Iran.” However, with Brent crude falling from its USD 112/bbl peak (curr. 110/bbl), the index now trades modestly in the red, a touch above 99.00 where its 50 DMA lies. Nothing notable scheduled today, though the rest of the week sees weekly ADP jobs on Tuesday, FOMC Minutes + NVIDIA earnings Wednesday, Jobless Claims and PMIs Thursday and UoM on Friday.
• GBP is one of the best G10 performers, likely a factor of technical factors than political reprieve with newsflow light heading into the likely June 18th by-election. EUR/GBP reversed from 0.8730, and Cable bounced from 1.33. On domestic politics, PM potential candidates Streeting and Burnham were on the wires talking up the importance of rejoining the EU. On the Fiscal/Consumer front, the Times reported Chancellor Reeves has plans to retain the cut on fuel duty from September amid fuel price concerns, while separately drawing up plans for a targeted intervention on energy bills - both potentially factors helping the Pound today. The week ahead sees Jobs on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and PSNB on Friday, the former which ING says is expected to be mild because of base effects.
• JPY is the only G10 currency that trades lower against the buck amid: a) a weak 5yr JGB auction, b) reports that the Japanese government is to start compiling a supplementary budget, c) lack of Iran progress, and d) surging energy prices. (See Fixed Income 09:35 BST for more). USD/JPY +0.1%, up a touch despite earlier gains which were capped by the 159 mark.

Central Banks

• BoE's Greene said some of the global economic resilience to the Iran war is due to inventories while second round effects of the energy price shock will not show up for another year. Should not be looking through negative supply shocks.
• BoE's Breeden said the central bank should not be ‘trigger happy’ on rates, while she warned of a hit to business from political uncertainty, according to FT.

Fixed Income

• A bearish start to the week as US President Trump's escalatory language on Iran and the associated energy move, with Brent peaking at USD 112/bbl overnight.
• Amidst this, fixed benchmarks spent the APAC session in the red. Note, JGBs derived pressure from this alongside a weak 5yr outing and reports around the compiling of a supplementary Japanese budget, see 09:35 BST for more details.
• USTs hit a 108-30 trough, a fresh contract low, in the early hours. Since, and particularly after remarks from the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, energy benchmarks have eased off, which has allowed fixed to lift, taking USTs to a 109-08 high with gains of one tick on the session. Today's US docket is quiet, but the week is busy with Nvidia due before the FOMC Minutes and a 20yr auction. From the Minutes, the last with Powell as Chair, BofA expects the account to "reinforce the Fed's recent hawkish tone", showing that Warsh will inherit a Fed with "little appetite to cut".
• Bunds in-fitting with the above, hit a 123.74 base, which is also a new contract low. Given the discussed energy moves, the benchmark has pared much of its 53 ticks of downside and is now lower by a more modest c. 15 ticks, just off a 124.20 peak. Newsflow has been relatively limited, we had remarks from but no move to ECB's Lagarde, who essentially noted that she is watching the yield space. On yields, the German 10yr hit a 3.19% peak overnight, a new high for the year and the highest since 2011's 3.49% best. Furthermore, the energy moves continue to be reflected in near-term policy expectations, with 21bps of ECB tightening implied for June and 75bps by end-2026.
• Gilts opened near-enough flat, as the bearish leads from overnight had already begun to moderate, in addition to the lack of significant weekend development on the fate of PM Starmer. Furthermore, the complex is perhaps deriving some support from a revival of coverage that contenders Burnham and Streeting would like to rejoin the EU at some point; albeit, Burnham did somewhat distance himself from this over the weekend, concerning the upcoming by-election campaigning at least. As it stands, Gilts are holding at highs of 85.53 with gains of c. 25 ticks. A bounce from the 84.96 base this morning, another contract low.
• Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.22x (prev. 3.58x), average yield 2.024% (prev. 1.826%), Lowest accepted price 99.85 (prev. 99.84), Weighted average price 99.89 (prev. 99.88), Tail in price 0.05 (prev. 0.04).

Commodities

• Crude futures surged at the start of Asia-Pac trade, with WTI making a new contract high of USD 104.37/bbl while Brent peaked at USD 112.00/bbl. Punchy rhetoric over the weekend by US President Trump, warning Iran that the “clock is ticking” and that “they better get moving, fast, or there won’t be anything left of them" initially spurred the upside in energy prices. However, benchmarks have pulled back as European trade gets underway, with WTI and Brent now trading at the lower end of its USD 101.59-104.37/bbl and USD 109.56-112/bbl range, respectively. More recently, according to Pakistani sources, Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night.
• Spot gold briefly dipped below USD 4,500/oz amid higher energy prices as trade got underway but has since regained the handle and currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4481-4560/oz range. Jewellers in India have reported higher demand for the yellow metal, ahead of the wedding season, after Indian authorities hiked gold import tariffs and then later curbed the amount of gold that can be imported. Silver has also faced restrictions with tightening rules for imports, describing imports as now “restricted” rather than “free”. Spot silver is currently in a USD 73.71-76.76/oz range, consolidating following Friday’s selloff.
• 3M LME Copper has started Monday’s trade on the backfoot, slipping back below USD 13.5k/t and falling closer towards last week’s trough of USD 13.4k/t. China’s growth slowed in April, with investment contracting while retail sales printed essentially flat Y/Y.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR Greer said President Trump will be presented with options for action on China if US investigations determine that industrial overcapacity is influencing Chinese exports.
• White House released a Fact Sheet on Sunday following last week’s Trump-Xi summit, which stated that China will purchase at least USD 17bln in US agricultural products annually for 2026, 2027 and 2028.
• EU is drawing up plans to force European companies to purchase critical components from at least three different suppliers, in an effort to lower the bloc’s reliance on China, according to FT.
• France wants Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) and Renault (RNO FP) to favour local parts suppliers to protect jobs and keep know-how in the region as Europe’s automakers deepen ties with manufacturers from China.
• China flagged that Australian beef imports are approaching the safeguard threshold and are at the 80% of the annual quota, which caps imports at current tariff rates, while additional imports would be subject to 55% tariffs on top of existing tariffs three days after shipments reach 100% of the quota.

Geopolitics (ex Iran)

• Ukraine upped the pressure on Russia with the biggest strike on Moscow in over a year involving dozens of drones on Sunday, according to WSJ.
• Russian drones hit Odessa and damaged residential homes, according to Interfax.
• Ukrainian manufacturers and officials warned the EU’s plan to slash steel imports would hurt Ukraine.
• Intelligence claimed that Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the US base at Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels and possibly Key West, Florida, according to Axios, which added that the intelligence could become a pretext for US military action and shows the degree to which the Trump administration sees Cuba as a threat.
• Taiwan’s President Lai said on Sunday that Taiwan will never be sacrificed or traded, after US President Trump recently described a planned USD 14bln arms sale to Taipei as a bargaining chip with China.

US Event Calendar

• 8;30am: May New York Fed services business activity
• 10:00am: May NAHB housing market index
• 4:00pm: March TIC flows 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today is my annual thank you message for voting for the UK in Eurovision. Despite all your support, we finished last for the third time since 2019, and it was the fourth successive year of "nul points" from the public vote. To be fair listening to the song, I was impressed it finished as high as last! The winning song from Bulgaria is perhaps 30-40 years too modern for me but was at least quite catchy!

Moving onto more serious matters, the Iran war is 80 days old as of today, with no obvious end in sight, whilst the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Notably though, the truce and ceasefire period (41 days) has now lasted longer than the initial kinetic phase (39 days). While an end to the ceasefire clearly cannot be ruled out, the fact this stalemate has persisted for so long suggests the US would prefer to avoid that route, given the political and economic consequences—particularly the political ones in an election year. As a result, the tense stalemate continues.
Nevertheless, the fragile nature of the ceasefire was exposed over the weekend when a drone attack caused a fire at an electrical generator at a UAE nuclear facility. Moreover, Trump suggested on Truth Social yesterday: "For Iran, the clock is ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!" Trump and Israel’s PM Netanyahu spoke last night, which could prove to be a key conversation in determining the next stage of the conflict.

For markets, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of a fresh escalation has pushed oil prices higher this morning. Brent crude is up +1.77% to a two-week high of $111.19/bbl. And it’s clear that investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict, as the 6-month brent future is also up to $92.14/bbl this morning, which would be its highest closing level since the conflict began.
Those oil moves have exacerbated fears about a stagflationary shock, which has pushed global bond yields even higher this morning. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.2bps) is now up to 4.63%, its highest level in the last year, whilst the 30yr yield (+3.4bps) is up to 5.15%, which would be another post-2007 high. It’s a similar story in Japan this morning, where the 10yr JGB yield (+4.8bps) is up to 2.75%, a level last seen in 1997, and the 30yr yield (+9.3bps) is up to 4.11%, the highest since that maturity was first issued in 1999. That also follows comments from PM Takaichi, who said she’d asked the finance minister “to consider ways of funding including compiling a supplementary budget”. Indeed, Reuters reported the government was likely to issue fresh debt to fund part of it.

Stagflation fears have continued to hit risk assets as well, with the major equity indices moving lower in Asia this morning. In addition, the latest activity data in China was weaker than expected. Retail sales were only up +0.2% year-on-year in April (vs. +2.0% expected), whilst industrial production was up +4.1% yoy (vs. +6.0% expected). That backdrop has seen equities fall overnight, including the Nikkei (-0.83%), the Hang Seng (-1.35%), the CSI 300 (-0.69%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.22%). That’s been echoed in the US and Europe too, where futures on the S&P 500 (-0.60%) and the DAX (-0.94%) are both lower as well. The only clear exception is South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.45%).

Those overnight declines follow several landmark bond moves in a global rout last week. Admittedly, if you look over the entire conflict, bond yields have moved in lockstep with oil, and Friday doesn’t look too anomalous. However, if you zoom in a bit, then yields have shifted from being broadly in line with the current price of oil to looking a bit high relative to it. That suggests some evidence of a small decoupling on Friday. With these end-of-week moves, 30yr US yields hit their highest level since 2007, 30yr Japanese yields their highest since their introduction in 1999, 30yr gilts reached levels last seen in 1997, and 30yr German yields returned to 2011 levels. You can see more details of the move in the review of last week towards the end. One thing to be aware of for risk assets is the relatively subdued reaction so far in the MOVE (bond volatility) index. This is the bond variable that most closely correlates with risk assets. It is currently around 80 and spent most of the period between early 2022 and early 2024 in a range of 100 to 150, so it remains relatively low so far which limits the impact of the rate shock.

Regardless, the bond move will no doubt be a major topic at the two-day G7 finance ministers’ meeting starting today in Paris. The meeting was billed as an opportunity to discuss global imbalances, such as the US budget deficit, China’s huge trade surplus, and Europe’s lack of investment. That might get a little overtaken by events.

This meeting follows on from last week’s Xi–Trump meeting in Beijing, which can best be characterised after the event, as a “summit lite”. It produced few concrete economic or geopolitical outcomes, with both sides emphasising stability and continued dialogue rather than agreements. Despite market hopes, China offered no assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the US position remained unchanged on Taiwan, semiconductor controls, rare earths and AI cooperation. For markets, the key takeaway was what did not happen: there was no escalation, but also no progress on the issues that matter most to investors.

Another hot topic right now is the UK, where there’s been a lot of political turmoil in the last week. That helped push the 30yr gilt up +21.3bps, which was a clear underperformance, whilst the pound sterling had its worst week against the US dollar since 2024. That came as a route opened for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to return to Parliament, because a Labour MP resigned and a by-election will now be held. That’s significant for markets, because Burnham is seen as a contender for the Labour leadership, and he said in September last year that the UK should not be “in hock to the bond markets”. Although he’s since walked back his interpretation of those comments, markets are likely to fear higher fiscal spending with Burnham as PM. So the focus is now on that by-election, which the BBC have reported will be on June 18. Burnham has been cleared by Labour’s ruling NEC to stand as well. However, there’s no guarantee he will win the by-election, as it’s a marginal seat for Labour and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK performed very strongly there at the local elections earlier this month. Much will depend on how aggressively the Green Party contests the seat and splits the left-wing vote.

Looking at the week ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, with a market capitalisation now of $5.46tn, could well be the main event. Elsewhere, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday, along with inflation data from Canada tomorrow, the UK on Wednesday, and Japan on Friday. From central banks, the highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Those flash PMIs will be important, as they’re one of the first indicators on how the global economy has performed this month, so will be scrutinised for any signs of how the war in Iran is impacting activity and prices.

The US calendar is relatively light, with the NAHB housing market index today expected to remain unchanged at a cyclically low 34, followed by Tuesday’s pending home sales, where a modest +1.0% increase is anticipated (from +1.5% previously). Attention will then turn to Thursday’s April housing activity data, where housing starts are expected to ease to an annualised pace of 1.425mn (from 1.502mn), while permits are projected to tick higher to 1.375mn (from 1.363mn). All estimates are according to our economists.

Beyond housing, Thursday is the key day for macro releases. The weekly initial jobless claims are expected to edge slightly lower to 209k (from 211k). The same day will also bring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, where our economists expect a pullback to +21.0 (from +26.7), alongside the flash PMIs. In the US, manufacturing is expected to soften marginally to 53.7 (from 54.5), while services are seen ticking up to 51.5 (from 51.0).

In contrast to consumer sentiment—which will see an updated reading of the Michigan survey on Friday (expected at 48.2 versus 49.8 previously)—business surveys have generally remained more resilient despite the energy shock. That said, some indicators have shown rising input costs and lengthening delivery times, developments that could signal renewed inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.
Turning to central bank communications, the Fed speaker slate is relatively limited but still notable. Governor Waller is scheduled to participate in an ECB policy panel tomorrow, alongside comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker (voter) on the outlook. On Wednesday, Vice Chair Barr will discuss consumer financial health metrics, while the Fed will also publish the minutes from the April FOMC meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) will follow on Thursday with remarks on the economy, before Governor Waller rounds out the week with a further appearance on Friday.

In Europe, the highlights will include the UK labour market report tomorrow and inflation data on Wednesday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI to slow to 2.98% YoY and core CPI to fall to 2.61% YoY. More detail and forecasts are in the full inflation spotlight note here. The UK will also release the GfK May consumer confidence index and April retail sales on Friday. Other notable European releases include Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and Germany’s Ifo survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan faces a busy week, with key data including Q1 GDP tomorrow and April nationwide CPI on Friday. Our Chief Japan economist expects positive real growth of an annualised 1.3% QoQ for the GDP report and sees core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, holding at 1.8% YoY, alongside a retreat in core-core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, to 2.2% (from 2.4% in March). The full week-ahead preview for Japan is available here.

Finally, beyond Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, results are also due from major US retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and TJX.
Recapping last week now, the main story was the global bond selloff, with yields hitting new highs in multiple countries. That came as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked, and Trump said that the US-Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support”, which helped to drive further gains for oil prices. So Brent crude ended the week up +7.87% (+3.35% Friday) at $109.26/bbl. Moreover, those inflation fears were exacerbated by strong CPI and PPI reports from the US, which led to mounting anticipation about a Fed rate hike this year. Indeed, the probability of a hike by the December meeting surged from 6% the previous week to 62% by Friday’s close. And over in Europe, the probability of an ECB hike at the June meeting was up from 79% the previous week to 89% by Friday’s close.

That backdrop led to significant pressure on sovereign bonds. In fact, 10yr Treasury yields were up +23.9bps last week (+11.1bps Friday) to 4.59%, their highest level since May 2025. Meanwhile, the 2yr Treasury yield was up +18.6bps (+5.2bps Friday) to 4.07%, its highest level since February 2025. And the biggest milestone came for 30yr yields, which rose +18.2bps (+8.9bps) to a post-2007 high of 5.12%. Similarly, in Germany 10yr bunds rose +16.2bps (+12.4bps Friday) to 3.17%, their highest level since 2011.

Here in the UK, gilts struggled in particular as the political turmoil showed no sign of easing. Notably, there were multiple ministerial resignations from PM Keir Starmer’s government, and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham announced he would seek to return to Parliament in a by-election. So 10yr gilt yields rose +26.0bps last week (+17.8bps Friday), closing at a post-2008 high of 5.17%. Meanwhile, the pound weakened -2.24% against the US Dollar, marking its worst weekly performance since 2024.

For equities, there was a relatively stronger performance, with the S&P 500 just about posting a 7th consecutive weekly gain, up +0.13%. That’s its longest run of weekly gains since 2023, even as Friday saw its worst day since March (-1.24%) amidst the rise in bond yields and oil. Non-US equities struggled more clearly, with Europe’s STOXX 600 down -0.85% (-1.48% Friday), whilst Japan’s Nikkei fell -2.08% (-1.99% Friday). Meanwhile, US credit saw a mixed performance, with US IG spreads (-4bps) tightening but HY spreads (+1bps) marginally wider, whilst Euro IG (-2bps) and HY spreads (-14bps) both moved lower.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:42

EPA Unwinds Massive Biden-Era Auto Emissions Regulations That Had 2027 Deadline

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (Emphasis ours),

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a deregulatory action to delay compliance deadlines for Biden-era emission standards, in a bid to make vehicles more affordable for Americans while ensuring greater consumer choice, the agency said in a May 14 statement.

Ford Motor Company's electric F-150 Lightning on the production line at their Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Mich., on Sept. 8, 2022. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

In March 2024, the Biden-administered EPA issued new rules regarding tailpipe emissions applicable to light-duty and medium-duty vehicles for model years 2027 and beyond. The regulations sought to “significantly reduce” greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and hydrocarbons from new light trucks, passenger cars, and larger pickups and vans.

The changes were projected to help tackle what the Biden-era EPA called “climate crisis” and reduce air pollution after the agency set limits on gas emissions. For instance, in passenger cars, the greenhouse gas emission limit was set at 139 grams of carbon dioxide per mile, which should reduce to 73 grams by 2032.

These regulations were expected to bring down carbon dioxide emissions by 7.2 billion tons through 2055, with the EPA saying there would be almost $100 billion in annual net benefits to American citizens, including $62 billion in lower fuel costs and maintenance costs, and $13 billion in public health benefits due to better air quality.

At the time, the EPA said that the emission standards were expected to “accelerate the transition to clean vehicle technologies.”

Between model years 2030–2032, around 30–56 percent of new light-duty vehicles and roughly 20–32 percent of new medium-duty vehicles were projected to be battery-electric vehicles, the document said.

In its May 14 statement, EPA said it was proposing to delay the compliance deadlines for these standards by two more years, until the beginning of model year (MY) 2029, since U.S. citizens have “overwhelmingly rejected” electric vehicles. Moreover, auto manufacturers have lost billions of dollars investing in the production of these vehicles, the agency stated.

The emission standards were “based on faulty assumptions by the Biden Administration that EVs would make up a significant percentage of MY 2027 and beyond fleets, causing the administration to set unrealistic emission standards for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles,” the EPA said.

If the proposal is finalized, it would allow auto companies to continue complying with current standards that “deliver substantial emissions reductions of up to 80 percent, for MY 2027 and MY 2028 vehicles,” according to the agency.

This would allow manufacturers to phase in the new emission standards starting with MY 2029 vehicles, “that better fit consumer demand for fewer EVs.”

The EPA said its proposal is estimated to save $1.7 billion, providing American families with hundreds of dollars in savings per vehicle.

“Freedom is the foundation of this nation, and this includes the freedom to choose the car you drive. The American people have been very clear; they do not want EVs forced upon them,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said.

“This proposal aims to return EPA regulations to reality, restoring consumer choice, protecting good-paying American jobs, and strengthening the nation’s global competitiveness” while the agency works to reconsider the emission standards, he said.

Ending EV Investments

In a May 15 statement, consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen criticized the EPA decision, saying that the agency’s proposal will allow automakers to sell polluting cars.

“The decision will not just cost lives; it will cost working-class people more money in medical bills, more missed days of work, and more years chained to volatile gas prices,” said Deanna Noel, deputy director with the organization’s Climate Program.

“Working families are already stretched thin. Everything from groceries to home insurance to gas is getting more expensive, with no end in sight. Delaying commonsense emissions standards will only make communities sicker and send costs higher.”

In its recent statement, the EPA said that major auto manufacturers were already cutting down their electric vehicle fleets and related developments.

For instance, in January, General Motors announced a $6 billion write-down on its electric line. The company also canceled contracts with EV battery suppliers. Stellantis said it would cut its entire plug-in EV lineup for this year.

In December, Ford announced the cancellation of its flagship electric truck, the F-150 Lightning, after losing around $13 billion on its electric vehicle line since 2023.

The corporate decisions were taken after President Donald Trump ended a $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of electric vehicles in September, which had affected sales of these vehicles.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, which immediately followed the end of the tax credit, EVs made up only 5.8 percent of new cars sold in the United States, down from 10.5 percent in the third quarter, according to data from vehicle valuation company Kelley Blue Book.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 07:20

Samsung, Union Resume Talks After Labor Action Scare; Goldman Says "Korea: Buy"

Downward momentum in South Korean stocks was halted on Monday as optimism returned to Samsung Electronics after the company and its union reopened talks to resolve contract disputes and avert a strike that could begin as soon as Thursday.

Bloomberg reported that the union's leader would "sincerely engage" with Samsung executives. The world's most important memory chip maker was also granted several requests by a Korean court, including orders to block the union from occupying company facilities.

The union is still threatening an 18-day walkout beginning Thursday unless its contract demands are met, but both sides signaled earlier today a willingness to resolve the labor dispute.

On Saturday, Samsung also made a concession by replacing its lead negotiator, while Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Chairman Jay Y. Lee publicly urged compromise.

Shares of Samsung in South Korea closed up 3.5%, helping lift the country's main equity index, KOSPI, after it had slid late last week on labor action fears.

Goldman analyst Christy Park told clients, "By now, one would know: any correction on Hynix & Samsung = Buy (*note Hynix shares corrected >1% only 5x times since April out of 30+ sessions in which at ALL times regained more than its losses immediately within the following 1~3 days)."

Park listed the catalysts for Samsung & Hynix:

• Resolution to the labor union strike removing overhang (Samsung; co replaced its entire negotiation team)

• Continued conventional memory pricing strength acting as a tailwind (Samsung has higher exposure vs. Hynix) 2027 HBM pricing upside given HBM now sold at a discount vs. conventional DRAM (both Samsung & Hynix)

• Upside in shareholder return given the substantial growth in FCF (Samsung: 2024-2026 shareholder return policy of paying back 50% of this)

• Potential ADR listing of Kioxia could be positive for Hynix sentiment (as Hynix owns a meaningful stake in Kioxia through a consortium) ADR listing of SK HYNIX (anticipated in July)

• We see Agentic AI driving a 24x jump in token consumption by 2030 (120 quadrillion tokens per month) (both Samsung & Hynix)

In a separate note, Tom Kang, director at Counterpoint Research, said, "There is a clear need for both sides to reach an agreement," adding that both sides have relatively little experience because Samsung has historically lacked a strong union culture.

"The gap may seem large, but the issues are workable," Kang said. "I believe the differences can be resolved without a strike."

Taiwan-based market intelligence and research firm TrendForce pointed out:

Samsung's strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company's semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited.

However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, and customer relations. In terms of unionization, about half of all employees across the Samsung Group are union members, most of whom work in the semiconductor division. Internally, management has already extended an olive branch to the DRAM division, but has not yet reached an agreement with union members in the Foundry and LSI divisions.

Samsung’s strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company’s semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited. However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, as well… https://t.co/l2ibgeXEIL

— TrendForce (@trendforce) May 15, 2026

Professional subscribers can read the full "[GS] KOREA: Buy" here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 06:55

Canada Rethinks Selling Its Crown Jewel Pipeline

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline.

• Since the expanded TMX pipeline launched in 2024, exports to Asia—especially China—have surged, with up to 70% of shipments from British Columbia heading to Asian buyers by late 2025.

• Officials now see TMX as a highly profitable “strategically important asset,” with potential for further expansion

The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and keep it state-owned amid a surge in appetite for Canadian crude to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels.

“The prior narrative had been that this should be returning to private hands,” the head of the government entity that owns Trans Mountain said at an event this week, as quoted by the Financial Post.

“That was in a different market and that was in a different time,” Elizabeth Wademan also said.

Indeed, this is a very different market from what it was when the government in Ottawa had to step in and buy Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan, which quit the project under relentless pressure from climate activists who used environmental regulations to strangle the expansion project. The price tag for the nationalization deal, which took place in 2018, was about $3.3 billion, and the Trudeau government quickly signaled it would start looking for buyers as soon as possible.

By 2024, the cost of the pipeline expansion project had swelled to about $23 billion, but the project, somewhat surprisingly, was completed, and the expanded pipeline launched in May of that year, running at three times its original capacity or a total of 890,000 barrels daily.

The destination for these barrels was the vast Asian market, as a way to diversify away from the U.S., which has for decades been pretty much the only foreign market for Canadian crude—and an export conduit, with the oil transported from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and from there, to markets overseas. With the new TMX, Canadian crude producers got a new, more convenient channel to Asian energy buyers.

It did not take long for the effect to be felt: between the launch of the expanded pipe and spring 2025, the average flow rates for shipment to China reached 207,000 barrels daily. That compares with an average of 173,000 barrels daily pumped to the United States. Since spring, the shift has become even more marked. By October 2025, as much as 70% of Canadian crude exported from the British Columbia coast was going to China. Now, everyone else in Asia is also interested.

The Trans Mountain pipeline is a “strategically important asset”, Trans Mountain Corp.’s Wademan said this week, suggesting the project could be expanded further, with more “energy corridors” that would add value for Canadians, the Financial Post reported.

“Let’s look where we are, and look how important energy security is, and look how incredibly profitable this asset is; there’s a lot,” Wademan said.

“There’s a lot of merit to holding onto it and realizing that full value.”

Indeed, it would be profitable for the federal government to hold on to the infrastructure as the price of Canadian crude inches closer to $90 per barrel—a level hardly seen as possible just five years ago, and even more recently. TMX has turned into a game-changer for the Canadian oil industry and it will be in the center of the “golden opportunity” that Canada has to become a bigger global player in both oil and gas.

Canada has a “golden opportunity” to become a major global oil player as the war in the Middle East limits sources of crude and natural gas, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said earlier this month, adding that “The cost of missing this train will be incredible.” It seems the Canadian government is acutely aware of that risk and plans to avoid it and make the best of the country’s resources in a fascinating departure from the previous government’s focus on emission reduction and alternative energy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 06:30

Behind Turkey's Gold Sales: The Biggest Ever Plunge In Foreign Reserves

Shortly after the Iran war started, with gold unexpectedly tumbling, we showed that the reason behind gold's paradoxical move - after all, the precious metal has traditionally been a store of value in times of geopolitical stress - was the furious liquidation of gold by emerging markets, in this case Turkey, scrambling to obtain reserve dry powder so Ankara could cover soaring costs of energy imports.

And indeed, the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.

According to balance-of-payments data released on Wednesday, Turkey's official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.

A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira. 

“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.

Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.

Since President Erdogan’s reelection in 2023, a new economic team has sought to stabilize Turkey’s external finances by cooling demand through conventional tools such as higher interest rates and restrictions on credit growth.

The central bank has kept its benchmark rate at 37% for two straight meetings but has effectively lended from a costlier rate of 40% since the outbreak of the Iran war — a technical measure to tighten liquidity without instituting a formal rate hike.

Inflationary pressures persist, however, with annual price growth picking up to 32.4% in April, a number that is set to rise higher in the coming months. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:45

Trump Tells Iran 'Clock Is Ticking, Move Fast' After New Peace Proposal As Analysts Predict Likely Return To War

Update(1410ET): President Trump has warned Iran on Sunday that the "clock is ticking" as Pakistani-mediated talks have not only stalled, but show no signs at all of restarting anytime soon. "They better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them," he wrote on Truth Social. "TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!"

He spoke the same day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who along with Lindsey Graham has been calling for resumption of robust anti-Tehran action to ensure Iran can never go nuclear. Trump's words have been somewhat of a familiar refrain going back several weeks. 

As we detailed below, Iran says it received a counter proposal of '5 conditions' for peace from the White House. In many ways they are directly opposite the 5 conditions Iran sent to the US last week, which Trump had rejected as "garbage".

But as yet there's been no indicator that the US side has attached a timeline to its latest demands. Trump is perhaps pushing this new "clock is ticking" as a timeline threat of sorts. But again, there was no specific date included in the fresh warning.

Last week Bloomberg Intelligence circulated a report titled, Iran Rejects Trump's Offer - Return to War Likely. It concluded:

The diplomatic dance continues: the US and Iran exchanged offers yet again. But they remain far apart, shooting maximalist demands at each other. A comprehensive peace deal is unlikely to materialize. We think the US and Iran will likely return to strikes. But we expect an intense exchange of fire to be temporary and reduce to lower-levels of fighting – what we call the new normal in this protracted conflict. 

More from the Bloomberg Intelligence analysis: 

Short but Intense... and Costly

Trump doesn’t want long war. His popularity is taking a hit as its economic impact is being felt.

We think Trump will likely revert to a short air and missile strike campaign on Iranian infrastructure, military positions, and energy assets while simultaneously continuing the blockade. Tehran will likely respond with strikes of its own, both on US military assets and America’s regional partners. But we expect this to be a short bombardment, rather than the sustained, high-intensity strike campaign that marked the beginning of the war.

The war has already imposed a heavy economic cost. Oil markets flipped from an expected record surplus to historic supply disruption. Major central banks, facing fresh inflation risks, are turning more hawkish. Consumers now pay more for energy, while their borrowing costs also rise, and the future grows more uncertain.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more it will drain the oil stockpiles cushioning governments, companies, and consumers today. Once inventories run thin, prices need to do the hard work: rising high enough to curb demand back in line with available supply.

Since that report was issued, nothing has changed, and both sides seem to have dug in their heels even more.

*  *  *

According to a Sunday report from Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, the United States has laid down a firm, take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum to Tehran. Both sides are still trying to patiently wait out the Hormuz crisis, hoping to inflict more economic pain on the other until they blink.

At the top of the list, the US is demanding a near-total dismantling of Iran's atomic ambitions, "allowing only one Iranian nuclear facility to remain operational." 

Anadolu Agency

The list includes direct rejections in response to Iran's own five conditions from a week ago, which President Trump said were "unacceptable" and "garbage".

For example the US is refusing to pay compensation for damage caused during strikes on Iranian territory - a 'maximalist' sticking point which Tehran had demanded previously.

Washington is also reportedly insists that 400 kilograms of enriched uranium be transferred from Iran to the US, while only one active nuclear facility would remain operational inside the Islamic Republic.

Iran for its part has recently vowed to never transfer its nuclear material out of the Islamic Republic, calling the issue a matter of national sovereignty and energy security which it alone has say over. This after even Russia offered to take it.

The newly reported five conditions by the US side further states that the US does not intend to release more than 25% of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran has demanded the dropping of all US sanctions as a key basis for lasting settlement.

Here are the five newly proposed Washington conditions, which some pundits have called 'wishful thinking':

1. No war compensation from US
2. Give up 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium to US 
3. Iran can only have on nuclear facility to remain active
4. Not more than 25% of frozen assets to be unfreezed 
5. Halting war on all fronts depends on negotiations

So this leaves a huge distance between the Washington list and Tehran's list, as the seemingly unbridgeable gulf remains, also as Iran is digging in its heels.

As a reminder, the below is the Islamic Republic's list, which it hasn't backed down from. It has offered the following as the only basis on which to restart talks:

1. Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
2. Lifting all sanctions
3. Releasing frozen Iranian assets
4. Compensation for war damages and losses
5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

US response to #Iran includes zero compensation, not even 25% of frozen assets released, keeping only one #nuclear facility active, handing over 400kg of highly enriched uranium to the US, and ending the war on all fronts dependent on the negotiations. https://t.co/riS7M4fEeF

— Abas Aslani (@AbasAslani) May 17, 2026

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out "what's next" - while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports.

With Washington demanding total disarmament and Iran demanding control over the world's most critical oil transit choke point, the stage is set for a likely coming renewal of direct clashes, given the zero sum demands of each side now on the table.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:10

So Where Does Wokeism Come From? (Spoiler Alert: The French, Of Course!)

Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.org,

How did wokeism happen?

A French intellectual, who goes by Brivael Le Pogam on X, has written a tightly focused and brief explanation of it worthy of Eric Hoffer, putting his finger on the thinking of French philospher-historian Michel Foucault, French philosopher Jacques Derrida, and French philospher-literary critic Gilles Deleuze, the first of whom claimed there was  no such thing as truth, just power relationships, the second of whom claimed truth was malleable, and the third of whom made the really weird claim that seeds were greater than fully developed trees because becoming was more important than being, poor romantic devil.

Married to guilt-tripping academics of the U.S., he explains how wokery was the result.

His tweet is in French, but Grok translate kicks in on my site, so I will post the translation below the tweet.

Grok translate, (with censorship from me of one cuss word that means merde): (emphasis ours)

I want to offer my apologies, on behalf of the French, for giving birth to French Theory (which in turn gave birth to the worst of all ideological monstrosities: wokism).

We gave the world Descartes, Pascal, Tocqueville. And then, in the intellectual ruins of post-1968, we gave Foucault, Derrida, Deleuze. Three brilliant men who forged, in the elegance of our language, the ideological weapon that today paralyzes the West.

We must understand what they did.

Foucault taught that truth does not exist, that there are only power relations disguised as knowledge. That science, reason, justice, the medical institution, the school, the prison, sexuality—everything is merely a staging of domination.

Derrida taught that texts have no stable meaning, that every signifier slips away, that every reading is a betrayal, that the author is dead and the reader reigns supreme.

Deleuze taught that we should prefer the rhizome to the tree, the nomad to the sedentary, desire to the law, becoming to being, difference to identity.

Taken individually, these are debatable theses. Combined, exported, and popularized, they form a system. And that system is a poison.

For here’s what happened.

These texts, unreadable in France, crossed the Atlantic. The departments of Yale, Berkeley, and Columbia absorbed them in the 1980s. They found there a soil that did not exist among us: American Puritanism, its racial guilt, its obsession with identity. French Theory married this substratum, and the child of that union is called wokism.

Judith Butler reads Foucault and invents performative gender. Edward Said reads Foucault and invents academic postcolonialism. Kimberlé Crenshaw inherits the framework and invents intersectionality. At every step, the matrix is French: there is no truth, there is only power, so every hierarchy is suspect, every institution is oppressive, every norm is violence, every identity is constructed and thus negotiable, every majority is guilty.

That’s how three Parisian philosophers, who probably never imagined their practical consequences, provided the operating software to an entire generation of activists, university bureaucrats, HR managers, journalists, and legislators. That’s how we ended up with a civilization that no longer knows how to say whether a woman is a woman, whether its own history is worth defending, whether merit exists, whether truth can be distinguished from opinion.

It’s sh** for one simple reason, and it must be stated calmly.

A civilization stands on three pillars: the belief that there exists a truth accessible to reason, the belief that there exists a good distinct from evil, the belief that there exists a heritage to be transmitted.

French Theory set out to dynamite all three. Not out of malice. Out of intellectual play, fascination with suspicion, hatred of the bourgeoisie that had nurtured them. But the result is there. An entire generation learned to deconstruct and never learned to build. An entire generation knows how to suspect and no longer knows how to admire. An entire generation sees power everywhere and beauty nowhere.

I apologize because we French bear a particular responsibility. It’s our language, our universities, our publishers, our prestige that gave this nihilism its chic packaging. Without the legitimacy of the Sorbonne and Vincennes, these ideas would never have crossed the ocean. We exported doubt the way others export weapons.

What is being built now, in Silicon Valley, in AI labs, in startups, in workshops, in all the places where people still make things instead of deconstructing them—that is the response. A civilization is rebuilt by builders, not by commentators. By those who believe that truth exists and is worth devoting oneself to. By those who embrace a hierarchy of the beautiful, the true, the good, and are not ashamed to transmit it.

So, forgive us. And back to work.

His viral tweet has been retweeted by Elon Musk, Javier Milei, and 20,000 other people on X, multiplied many more times by Musk and others. 

Eric Hoffer used to write about these guys in the '50s and '60s, the earlier wave of them, French and German intellectuals, plus numerous academics in the states, often noting that they have never having done a day of work in their lives. He linked their relativist and nihilist radicalism to antisemitism, too. Hoffer knew who they were and he  had their number.

So does this guy.

His tweet advances to the recent wave of them, which created an unholy fusion with U.S. academics to produce wokesterism, the reason we see in our culture the inability to define what a woman is, the collective racism charge that never, ever can be ended, and more rubbish that a whole industry has been built around.

Eric Hoffer, who died in 1983, loved those who could express ideas concisely. Since I knew him personally as a high school and college student, I think he would have enjoyed X.

I hope we hear more from this French guy, because knowledge of this kind is power -- that is why this tweet went viral. It's why, when I first discovered Eric Hoffer's True Believer book as a 12-year-old kid, I hid the book under my bed, because to a kid like me, it felt like it contained all the secrets of the universe. Hoffer has never been out of print, because what he tells is the truth. Truth like this French tweet is the same kind of truth, and the gives me the same kind of feeling: Exposes the liars is the strongest way to stamp the wokeism out. It's a reminder that Western Civilization must win this war on ideas.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 05:00

Net Zero Fearmongering In Tatters After Climate Report 'Implausibility' Ruling

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

The fallout from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ruling that computer model high emissions pathway RCP8.5 is “implausible” is only just beginning. Most mainstream media fearmongering stories over the last 15 years need to be moved into the junk file, as do the increasingly shrill sandwich-board pronouncements of King Charles and Sir David Attenborough.

But the rot goes much deeper than ill-informed public comment, although that alone has been enormously influential in promoting the Net Zero fantasy. Activist-ridden science bodies such as the UK Met Office have brazenly used RCP8.5 to flam up weather predictions which in turn has led to onerous requirements being placed on British industry and finance. Politicians have been convinced by patently ridiculous claims and Net Zero rules and regulations have cascaded through the economy and society.

All the politicised predictions need to be junked and all the resulting regulations reconsidered with a view to abolition. They are all based on assumptions that many at the time said were ridiculous and have now been officially marked as not wanted on voyage. Those inclined to be uncharitable might suggest it was all a hoax from start to finish.

In 2022, the Met Office published its latest ‘UK Climate Projections Report‘ (UKCP18) and claimed it provided users “with the most recent scientific evidence on projected climate change with which to plan”. Many words come to mind to describe the output of computer models, none of which include ‘evidence’. In fact, the Met Office made a feature of its deliberate use of RCP8.5, highlighting its findings in bold type and describing them as “plausible”. These plausible projections, a more accurate description might be laughable, suggested summers and winters in the UK by 2070 could be up to 5.1°C and 3.8°C warmer respectively. More bold claims suggested summer rainfall could decrease by up to 45%, with winter precipitation increasing by 39%. Severe droughts and floods would inevitably follow.

The Met Office concludes: “Governments will make use of UKCP18 to inform its adaption and mitigation planning and decision-making.” Unfortunately, they probably did.

The science writer Roger Pielke Jr. was the first to spot the IPCC’s rejection of RCP8.5, calling it “the most significant development in climate research in decades”. He said that the scenario described “impossible futures”, although the results have dominated climate research, headlines and policy for the best part of two decades. Helped also by the reporting in the Daily Sceptic which went viral across social media, the IPCC finding is firmly established in the public domain. But, notes Pielke, remarkably there has not been a peep from major US or international English language mainstream media outlets.

The New York Times is said to be perhaps the most prominent home for promoting news stories based on studies that rely on RCP8.5. It has said nothing, likewise the BBC and the Guardian. Green Blob-funded Climate Brief has covered RCP8.5 more than perhaps any other English language publication, but again silence reigns. Pielke is led to observe: “The outlets most invested in their longstanding promotion of RCP8.5 have the most to lose from a clear-eyed accounting of what its retirement means for science, policy and their own coverage.”

Nevertheless, there have been some rare sightings of mainstream coverage. The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant published a front page story headed ‘UN Climate Panel Drops Doomsday Scenario’. The writer of the story Maarten Keulemans later posted on X:

Also in Europe, the Berliner Zeitung ran an article suggesting that “extreme climate scenarios played too large a role in public debate for too long”. Another German publication Die Welt also picked up the story, observing: “A lobby made RCP8.5 famous: the most sensationalist of all climate scenarios has determined scientific studies, media and politics – yet it is unrealistic. Now it is actually being phased out”.

Two members of that ‘lobby’ are the main science publications Nature and Science. In recent years it has sometimes been suggested that climate scientists have moved on from RCP8.5 but the evidence suggests the popular climate crackpipe is difficult to put down. Pielke notes that so far in 2026, more than 2,600 studies have been published using the high emission scenarios, and tens of thousands before that. Both Nature and Science have thrived on publishing RCP8.5 drivel – it will be interesting to see how they spin the passing of an attention-seeking, grant-manufacturing old friend.

The implications of RCP8.5’s demise are vast. Science and journalism careers will be affected, trust in another branch of politicised science will be diminished, rules and regulations imposing unnecessary financial climate costs will need to be re-written (don’t hold your breath), while the promoters of Net Zero will lose a vital fearmongering weapon propping up their Great Reset fantasy. Watch this space.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 03:30

Japanese Company Simplifies Ketchup Packaging Amid Ink Shortage Tied To Middle East Conflict

Kagome is revamping the packaging of several ketchup products after supply disruptions made white printing ink harder to source, according to Japan Today. The shortage stems from raw material constraints tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

Under the redesign, bottles of Kagome Tomato Ketchup will no longer feature the brand’s usual full white-and-red label. Instead, part of the bottle will be left clear, creating a more minimal look. Kagome said switching to a different ink is not a practical option because of technical printing limitations.

Japan Today writes that the updated packaging will be introduced gradually later this month for 500-gram, 300-gram, and 180-gram bottles.

The change reflects broader supply strain across Japan’s food industry. Earlier this week, Calbee Inc. said it would temporarily sell 14 potato chip varieties in monochrome packaging as shortages of naphtha — a petroleum-based material used in production — continue to disrupt operations.

Calbee’s affected products include popular flavors such as Lightly Salted, Consomme Punch, and Seaweed Salt. The company also said it will raise prices on 25 snack items starting Sept. 1, including potato chips and Jagarico. Chip prices are set to increase by 5% to 10%, while Jagarico products will rise by 3% to 10%.

The back-to-back announcements highlight how geopolitical tensions are rippling into everyday consumer goods, affecting everything from packaging materials to retail prices. For shoppers, the most visible impact may be simpler packaging now — and higher grocery bills later.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 02:45

Poland Is Now The Last Country Standing In The Way Of A Federalized Europe

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Its conservative president is totally against this project and can veto related legislation tabled by the liberal prime minister since the latter’s ruling coalition doesn’t have the two-thirds majority to overrule him, thus enabling Poland to play the role that Hungary did prior to Orban’s downfall.

Politico earlier reported that “European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen waited less than a day after Hungary voted Viktor Orbán out of office to call for the EU to get more power over national governments to force through foreign policy decisions.” In particular, she wants qualified majority voting on foreign policy matters whereby at least 55% of member states vote in favor and they represent at least 65% of the EU’s population, which hasn’t yet happened in order to safeguard state sovereignty.

Spanish journalist and analyst Javier Villamor published a piece at The European Conservative that same day about how “Hungary’s Fall Clears Path for a More Centralized EU”.

In brief, “The removal of Brussels’ most persistent opponent is set to accelerate plans to curb national vetoes, expand EU borrowing, and tighten control over member states.” The combined effect would amount to furthering the plan to federalize Europe in alignment with what the EU elites have wanted for some time already.

Von der Leyen’s plan in summer 2024 to “build a veritable union of defense” as well as Germany’s “two-speed Europe” proposal earlier this year and the proposal to fast-track Ukraine’s EU membership are all complementary means to this end that’ll now be easier to implement after Orban’s downfall. If progress is made on any of what was mentioned thus far, then states will lose even more sovereignty than they already have, and this could have disastrous implications for their national identity and social cohesion.

Many of the EU elites pushing this agenda are German, which is why Polish opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said before the election that Orban’s win would help prevent the EU from becoming a tool for “German neo-imperialism”. He also accused Germany in late 2021 of building a “Fourth Reich” through the EU. Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who’s an independent in alliance with Kaczynski’s conservatives, alluded last December to this significant non-military threat that the German-led EU poses to Poland.

One month prior, he shared his “vision of the direction in which the European Union should go”, which advocates reforming the bloc in order to restore states’ sovereignty, while last month he presented Poland and implicitly himself personally at CPAC as Europe’s conservative champions. With all this in mind, Poland is now the last country standing in the way of a federalized Europe since Nawrocki can veto related legislation and the ruling liberals don’t have the two-thirds majority to overrule him.

The next parliamentary elections aren’t till fall 2027, and given how close they’re expected to be, liberal Prime Minister Tusk isn’t expected to risk the public’s wrath by tabling doomed-to-fail federalization-related legislation. Accordingly, von der Leyen and her ilk’s plot won’t prospectively make any progress despite Orban’s downfall due to these Polish domestic political reasons, and the conservatives’ potential retaking of parliament could then doom it for another four years after that.

In Christian eschatology, the katechon is the one who prevents the arrival of the anti-Christ, so a political comparison among critics of the EU would be the one who prevents the bloc’s federalization. That was Orban up until last year, but then this role was shared with Nawrocki and is now exclusively held by him, with their Czech and Slovak counterparts being considered too susceptible to EU pressure. This is a huge responsibility, an historic one in fact, and his legacy will be determined by whether he stands strong.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 02:00

A Deadly Day In Butler

The following is an excerpt from the newly published book “The Trump Assassination Plots: What the Investigations Missed, and Why it Matters.” The book, which can be found here, attempts to provide the most complete account to date of the attempts on Donald Trump’s life (emphasis ours),

A Deadly Day in Butler

*CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK*

Three shots rang throughout the Butler Farm Show - causing Trump to grab his ear and fall on the ground, his security detail piling on top of him moments later. Numerous rallygoers later said that they thought they were hearing fireworks at first, but there was a shooter on the AGR rooftop. His first three shots were aimed at Trump, but then he started spraying seemingly indiscriminately.

*CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK* *CRACK*

As Crooks fired, Butler ESU operator Aaron Zaliponi, who was on the ground, could see his head peeking over the rooftop. Zaliponi had been one of the Butler ESU operators deployed seconds before Crooks started firing. When the shooting began, he was between Trump’s podium and the AGR building - by the fence that separated the Farm Show from the company’s property.

Keeping calm despite the bullets whizzing by, Zaliponi focused on Crooks through the EOTECH red-dot sight on his M4 AR platform SWAT rifle.

*CRACK*

Zaliponi returned fire with a single 5.56mm NATO 62 grain TAP Barrier projectile.

“I can see the gas emit from his barrel, his muzzle. Then right after that I hear the snap of his fifth shot go off. Then immediately after that, I press one off, and that’s whenever he immediately goes down. When I say he goes down, it wasn’t like he was ducking to get out of the way. I mean, like, I know I hit him. Like there’s no doubt about it,” Zaliponi later recounted. “He goes down. He kind of jerks to the right, and then he kind of slumps over slowly and then kind of slowly rolls backwards out of my field of view.”

For the next 10 seconds, the crowd seemed to be under a spell. Some in the stands ducked down, some turned toward the AGR building, and some looked with concern at Trump.

“What are we doing? What are we doing?” one of Trump’s security agents could be heard saying frantically.

At the bottom of a body-bunker of agents who piled onto Trump, the second-in-command of his detail could see that he was bleeding.

“Sir, are you okay?” said Nick Menster, the Assistant Special Agent in Charge (ASAC).

“I think so,” Trump said.

Menster said that he used a white cloth that Trump had at the podium to apply pressure on his ear - the left one.

“No, it’s my right ear,” Trump corrected the agent.

Counter-Snipers in Disarray

On the barn rooftops behind Trump, the Secret Service counter-snipers were in similar disarray. Though they had reoriented their weapons toward the AGR building at 6:10 P.M. and were aware that local police were pursuing someone in that vicinity, they were still caught flat-footed when the shooting began.

A tree was blocking the northern barn counter-sniper team’s view of the rooftop gunman, and video shows them seemingly flinching at the first shots. One of them later told congressional investigators that he and his partner believed they took fire.

“I’m telling you, I could have reached out and smacked these projectiles out of the air with my hand. They were that close. I could feel the air, the pressure difference in my eardrum as these rounds passed,” said a Secret Service counter-sniper, who has not been publicly identified.

While the Secret Service counter-snipers were scrambling, Sgt. Zaliponi kept a watchful eye on the rooftop. He saw Crooks slowly crawl back up and into his sights. But just as the local cop was about to put another bullet into the would-be assassin, Secret Service counter-sniper David King fired a final, 10th shot — a .300 Winchester Magnum bullet. King’s shot, fired from the southern barn behind Trump, came 15 seconds after shooting began and 10 seconds after it had stopped.

*CRACK*

“I got him,” King said.

It’s unclear exactly how long King had the rooftop gunman in his sights.

According to notes King took immediately after the shooting, he saw Crooks “crawling” into position before firing.

“I and my teammates positioned ourselves to observe that area that everyone was moving to. I noticed an individual, white male, white or gray shirt, low crawling on the roof. I noticed an AR-style weapon in his hands. As I moved to observe through my rifle scope I heard weapon fire,” King’s notes said.

“I looked up to see my engagement scope, looked back through the scope, observed the individual shooting, and engaged. At that time, the shooter dropped out of my sight in the scope. I continued to observe the area, as there were reports of another individual on the water tower at four o’clock,” his notes said.

However, King later told congressional investigators that he didn’t actually see Crooks crawling. In fact, he didn’t see Crooks until after he stopped firing, King said.

“I was observing the rooftops, didn’t see anything… When the first shot rang out, I identified the location that Crooks was at, put my binos down, got my rifle. At the time that I was getting into my rifle and getting the [view] of Crooks, that’s when I assumed that three rounds and then five went off,” King told House investigators.

King’s partner, team leader John Marciniak, claimed he didn’t see Crooks until he was dead.

Marciniak indicated that he was discombobulated after a bullet ruptured a hydraulic line on a nearby speaker tower, spraying him with fluid. At first, Marciniak thought that he was having a heat stroke. Another thought flashed through his head: “Am I seeing snow right now?”

Unlike his counterparts on the north barn, Marciniak and King didn’t think they were under fire — though Marciniak may have had second thoughts after speaking to federal investigators.

“At the time, I had no reason to believe shots were fired at us until speaking to the FBI… I guess a round — it was in the air, in our [general] direction, but not close to us.”

Excerpt from “The Trump Assassination Plots: What the Investigations Missed, and Why it Matters.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 23:20

Are There Really 'No Bad Ideas' When It Comes To 'Saving Our Democracy'?

Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

Former Vice President Kamala (hic!) Harris recently opined that there are “no bad ideas” when it comes to brainstorming ways to reinvigorate the Democrat party.

During a May 13th livestream on something called the "Win with Black Women" podcast, Hic! Harris suggested that the Democrat party prepare an "expanded playbook" of ideas to help it retake power after the 2026 midterm elections.

Harris opined:

"And in that no bad ideas brainstorm, we talk about what we need to do and think about doing around the Electoral College. We talk about the idea of Supreme Court reform, which includes expanding the Supreme Court. We invite a conversation about multi-member districts."

The old sot suggested that, when Democrats retake the Senate, the Senate Judiciary Committee should quickly establish rules to "penalize people for lying" for Supreme Court justices and nominees.

It is always hilarious when Democrats speak of their dislike for lying … and always lie.

They are to prevarication as Kamala is to drinking, as retrievers are to … retrieving things. They can’t help themselves.

The Tipsy One added,

“Let's talk about statehood for Puerto Rico and D.C. These are the things I think that we've got to do.”

She concluded by saying of Democrats:

"We gotta fight fire with fire. We gotta be ruthless, too."

Democrats start fires. (They don’t always put them out, as clearly demonstrated in Los Angeles County last year.) And Democrats have always been ruthless, whether they were plantation owners or, more recently, possessed by Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) and the rabid desire to dispense, by any means necessary, with those with whom they disagree.

As for the notion that there are no bad ideas? How about “Let’s kill all the Jews” or “Islam is totally compatible with a free, democratic republic?” Or even, “I’ve only had 10 rum and cokes, I think I’ll take a nice drive in my car?” And let’s be honest, Kamala doesn’t have brainstorms, she has perhaps a mild squall or minor dust-up on occasion, maybe even a moderate gust of wind, but no brainstorms.

So, Democrats, just continue to call conservatives Nazis. Keep trying to imprison all your political opponents. An assassination or two might be needed here and there to, you know, “save our democracy.” (The problem is that Democrats actually think the country is their democracy, and that no one else has a right to govern it.)

Kamala may still have her mind set on Running for President Under the Influence (RPUI), but it is hard to see any current likely Democrat heading a ticket the equal of Vance-Rubio or vice-versa. As sure as water is wet, Democrats will resort to their time-tested tactics of slander, libel, lies, gas-lighting, projection, and cheating.

Maybe they should just, hic!, forcibly take power via a good, old-fashioned insurrection?

Anything to save their our democracy, right? 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/17/2026 - 22:10