Bessent Pulls Trigger On Using Frozen Funds To Reimburse Gulf Allies: 'Iran Will Pay'

US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced on X Thursday morning that Washington is moving forward on a plan to compensate America's Gulf regional allies for damage sustained during Iranian counterattacks on their energy and civic infrastructure.

He made clear that any damage to Gulf allies would be paid for with frozen Iranian funds, which Tehran leadership has long blasted as blatant theft.

According to Bessent's latest announcement: "The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing." The Treasury Secretary listed out the following new policy and plan:

• Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts.
• Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.
• Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.

via Reuters

Interestingly, there is implicit here a possible acknowledgement that US forces won't be able to immediately be able to stop Iran from enacting its toll collection protocol, which it has hinted is being done in coordination - or at least with an 'understanding' - from Oman, which itself has come under pressure from the Trump administration of late.

Over eighty oil, gas, and vital infrastructure facilities across the Gulf have been hit - with most of the attacks having occurred in March and April - with one recent report estimating up to $58 billion in damage. Iran has sought to justify these attacks as 'retaliation' for these Gulf countries hosting American bases during the US unprovoked assault on the Islamic Republic.

An unnamed US official had previously told ABC's Senior White House correspondent Selina Wang last weekend: "Treasury will utilize all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be made available to our Gulf allies to support rebuilding and repairs for any future damage caused by Iran."

"The Secretary has also directed his team to assess conditions amongst our Gulf allies and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage Iran has inflicted since the start of the conflict," the source had added.

Also as part of that earlier reporting, it was revealed:

The Iranian assets could include frozen assets and ships the U.S. has seized. The administration is reaching out to Gulf allies right now and asking for their evaluation.

This is only likely to further derail efforts to get Tehran and Washington back to the negotiating table. Already the US has balked at Iran's own insistent it be given reparations for damage done.

Iran is meanwhile still demanding that its billions in funds long frozen by Washington be given back as part of a deal. The Trump administration has so far rejected this, at least in terms of its public-facing position.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 10:00

War And Piece

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Sorry, Bank of Canada (rates held at 2.25%), Chinese CPI and PPI (1.2% and 3.9% y-o-y headline) US CPI (0.5% m-o-m and 4.2% y-o-y headline, 0.2% and 2.9% core), and the ECB today: you all matter but are just pieces of the global picture one now needs to finish: the war vs. Iran.

Changing the recent pattern, President Trump said he would strike Iran again today and did. At time of writing, nearly 50 Tomahawk missiles had been fired alongside airstrikes against radar and drone installations, with a disputed report that a petrochemicals plant was also hit. Even by the standards of the ‘peacefire’ --which, as I’d argued yesterday morning, Iran’s leadership then agreed no longer suits them-- this is a major escalation.

However, the US is still holding back compared to what it can do militarily, and Israel is sitting on its hands. Notably, Trump told Fox News he has been in direct contact with senior Iranian leadership, a new development, and they had asked him to stop bombing: to which he claims he told them to sign the deal on the table, or on Thursday evening he will “Bomb the s**t out of them.” In other words, hits against infrastructure, energy, and nuclear sites, can’t be ruled out.

The immediate Iranian response has been to declare Hormuz entirely closed to all ships. However, despite the fact that Iran was prepared for these US strikes there have, as yet, been no successful counterstrikes against US bases in the Middle East or against GCC energy and water infrastructure. Will this happen with a lag? If not is Iran unable to do so, or just unwilling to? Equally, will Iran act with the Houthis to close the Bab-el-Mandeb and Red Sea, making this energy crisis far worse?

These are staggeringly important geopolitical questions on which global markets, and the BoC and Chinese and US inflation, will ultimately pivot.

So far, the market reaction has been relatively mild – oil only up around $2. Perhaps part of that is down to another piece of the Iran puzzle that has befuddled energy experts and visitors from outside the field – what is happening in terms of oil flows from Hormuz.

Trump had yesterday announced the US is taking “millions of barrels of oil” from Iran, causing the usual consternation. A breakdown of what he meant comes from shipping maven @mercoglianos, who argues the US secretly resumed Project Freedom to escort ships through Hormuz using autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones to escort ships through the southern Strait near Oman. Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Gulf, conducting ship-to-ship transfers to smaller tankers near Oman, then returning to pick up more oil. In that regard, oil can flow even as the number of ships stuck in the Gulf appears unchanged. War risk insurance, potentially provided by the US Development Finance Corporation, could be covering these few ships making the transits. Yet Iran has been targeting them and the US responding with airstrikes: the Apache helicopter just shot down, triggering a new US attack, was likely part of this operation.

Of course, what may have been happening invisibly, despite 24/7 market coverage, can’t compensate for normal Gulf flows, which is why the plunge in the US and Japan’s SPR and a huge drop in China’s oil imports --none of which are sustainable-- are doing the heavy lifting to keep oil below $100. That dynamic always pointed to escalation: will it be military now, via the US; with others later as more energy panic kicks in; or via more backchannel diplomacy from China? 

Regardless, it’s hard to make economic or central bank forecasts without one for the Iran War, as the FT says airlines are drawing up cuts for an 'ugly' winter’ due to stubbornly high jet fuel prices; Reuters notes global container shipping rates are soaring and “Fuel analysts and maritime experts warn it could take around a year for bunker fuel supplies to return to normal even if Trump is able to quickly clinch an Iran deal”; and the UK Telegraph argues farmers may have to stop planting crops without government support.

But geopolitics and geoeconomics are to the fore everywhere and it’s not only energy and petrochemicals being squeezed.

In the Middle East, Turkey’s President Erdogan claimed Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Syria threaten it and “its aggression must be stopped”, after talking about the liberation of Jerusalem. Israel’s diplomatic response was equally undiplomatic; Saudi Arabia resumed imports from Lebanon after a five-year hiatus; and a Saudi-Turkey rail link may be completed within three years.

In the Americas, Trump suggested he may not renew the USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada; and US Secretary of War Hegseth warned Cuba that any arms procurement by it seen as threatening the US could invite a confrontation - we are talking about 1956 at the moment, so why not 1962 too?

In Europe, five capitals are reportedly calling to freeze voting rights for new EU members, radically changing the structure of the Union; Politico reports ‘French far-right firebrand’ Zemmour is embracing MAGA to try to pay political dividends at home ahead of the 2027 presidential election; and the South China Morning Post asks ‘As de-dollarisation trends persist, can the yuan take the euro’s place?’, meaning taking the #2 spot in global settlements from the single currency.

In Australia, the political scene continues to churn with talk of a ‘non-compete’ clause and voting preference deal between the centre-right Liberals and populist right One Nation that has suddenly soared in the polls.

In Asia, Taiwan fired US mobile missile launchers into the waters facing China for the first time as “a message of resolve”, according to the Wall Street Journal; the US has asked China to resume rare earth exports to Japan, which have been cut off, as Tokyo pivots to US tungsten scrap exports to fill that gap, and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s curbs on cobalt exports have sparked shortages for everyone, including China; Japan’s parliament passed a revised economic security law to support overseas projects (as Bloomberg asks ‘Who’s Afraid of ‘Japanese Neo-Militarism’? Nobody’ - that’s arguably not true; and BOJ Governor Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to miss the June policy meeting. Get well soon and perhaps be can follow the Iran news from there.

Indeed, now back to whatever piece of the war you happen to be focusing on.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:40

AI Price Wars Begin: OpenAI Considers "Drastic Price Cuts" In Pursuit Of Anthropic Customers

Earlier today, in a report discussing how "AI bills are out of control", JPMorgan tech guru and TMT salesman, Mark Schilsky wrote that "most of my high level investor discussions focus on one major topic: when will the party end? Put another way, tech investors have made so much money in Semis so quickly that they are looking for potential warning signs that the music is about to stop. Predicting such an end is incredibly difficult. As such, investors are searching for forward-looking indicators that might suggest the AI party is nearing a peak." 

Here, the JPM trader highlighted perhaps the clearest indicator that the music was about to stop: "A slowdown in the growth of the annualized run-rate revenues of the major AI labs. If there is any sort of second derivative ‘kink’ in their growth algorithms, that could portend a future problem for the AI trade."

In response to this, we pointed to just such a "slowdown in the run-rate revenues", when we showed that the Silicon Data token price index is down for 7 straight days to a level last seen in mid-January, or long before the current agentic craze started. Almost as if it knew something... 

Source

Turns out it did: late on Wednesday, with futures surging and Korean stocks erasing a nearly 5% drop and turning green, and euphoria generally back front and center, the WSJ may have burst the AI bubble when it reported that - contrary to conventional wisdom that token prices will magically go to infinity - OpenAI, which has been badly lagging both the revenue and IPO race with Anthropic in recent months - was considering "drastically lowering the prices it charges users" in a panic scramble to regain market share and win back customers from archrival Anthropic.

And so, at a time when there is suddenly a mass realization that token prices had been soared in recent weeks, a wake-up call which JPM lovingly described as follows: "investors have been discussing the possibility that much of the token spend that corporate America is currently incurring is ‘wasted’. Anecdotes from companies like UBER aren’t helping this narrative", OpenAI is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens. Hilariously, the move would be in anticipation of similar cuts the company expects at Anthropic, which is trying to double how much it charges for its latest model, Fable, which provides at best a very modest modest improvement in performance over Opus 4.8.

In short, we now have a classical deflationary race to the bottom, precisely the opposite of what the profit-strapped industry desperately needs to grow into its gargantuan balance sheets (and massive SPVs); Instead, the AI world is about to get hit with a collapse in both revenues and profit margins, while cash burn goes into full-on incinerator mode.

Warning that "business executives have begun to balk at the high prices for AI usage", the WSJ writes that OpenAI CEO Altman said at a recent event that costs had become “a huge issue.”

“I think we’ll have a lot of ways we can help people get more value for less spend,” he said.

In other words, LLMs tried to push up token prices to and beyond their breaking point... and succeeded.

And now it's time for the brutal drop: a drastic price war will erode the profit margins of both companies, which already lose billions of dollars because of the enormous cost for computing resources needed to run AI systems. 

Altman's decision to start a price war was prompted by OpenAI's attempt to catch up with its younger rival in the race to win enterprise customers that are paying large amounts of money for AI tools that can improve workplace productivity. Anthropic’s revenue recently surged
"after its coding tool Claude Code went viral among software engineers, and the five-year-old startup surpassed OpenAI’s valuation for the first time."

Or at least that's the WSJ version of events. In reality what happened is that Anthropic quietly annualized the one-time bumper revenue from Feb-May during the agentic splurge when nobody had any idea what they were paying, to come up with the ludicrous $47BN ARR, which they then actively paraded ahead of their IPO. But let's see what Anthropic's ARR is next month will be after clients finally check their token bills.

Sure enough, as we have been writing repeatedly in recent weeks, "some corporations poured so much money into Anthropic’s products that their leaders are now seeking to rein in spending. Earlier this year, an Uber executive said the company had maxed out its 2026 budget for agentic, or autonomous, AI use, and another company leader said last month that it was difficult to link AI coding productivity improvements to new customer features."

In other words, yet again the age-old question of whether and when AI will have a positive ROI rears its ugly head, and the answer is not any time soon... if ever. 

Such comments from many executives have triggered a broader debate within Silicon Valley about so-called “tokenmaxxing,” or the practice of using as many tokens as possible to boost productivity, including in ways that don’t generate returns on investment. That may have worked 6 months ago when LLMs were giving out compute for free to capture market share, but it doesn't work now that all the major AI companies are suddenly charging an arm and a kidney for an "agent" that responds to emails. 

As the WSJ concludes, "a price war would be an early test of the strength of both companies’ business models ahead of hotly anticipated public listings." OpenAI and Anthropic have captured the majority of revenue from new AI products, powering their rise. But an underlying risk that investors have long identified is the interchangeability of their products, and the ease with which customers can abandon one for the other. 

There is a bigger risk: as we noted one week ago, in the coming price war, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will win. Instead it will be the country that has made reverse engineering Western technology and then selling it back to the west at 90% off, into an art form. Yes, China is about to enter the chatbot. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:15

US Initial Jobless Claims Jump To 4-Month-Highs

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time jumped to 229k last week (more than the 220k expected) and the highest in four months...

Source: Bloomberg

Pennsylvania, California, and Minnesota are the states seeing the largest rise in claims last week...

Continuing jobless claims also rose last week to 1.795mm Americans - highest in two months, but still relatively low in the context of the last two years...

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is that while initial jobless claims are rising, they remain low by historical standards and continue to run below year-ago levels.

Taken together with the May payrolls report, the data suggest that labor-market momentum remains firm.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 09:08

Bill Gates Tells Congress That Epstein Exploited Knowledge Of His Adultery

Microsoft founder and mega-billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates told Congress that Jeffrey Epstein exploited knowledge of Gates' multiple marital infidelities. Gates insists, however, that he committed no crimes and that the women he had adulterous sexual relations with were not associated with Epstein. Nonetheless, Gates' highlighting of Epstein's leveraging of Gates' sexual secrets fans suspicions that he sought to exploit similar secrets of other powerful people. 

"I never witnessed nor had any indication that Epstein was engaged in ongoing criminal conduct. I never went to his island, his ranch, or his Florida home. I have never victimized anyone. While he may have sought to foster a personal relationship, I was never interested in that and never reciprocated," Gates said in his opening remarks, which were published by the House Oversight committee. His testimony on Wednesday was given behind closed doors. 

Bill Gates with an unidentified but manifestly well-proportioned brunette number, in a photo from the Epstein files (House Oversight Committee)

Gates told legislators that Epstein became aware of Gates' serial philandering with three different women via a mutual acquaintance.  “Based on what has been released in the files, Epstein was working to use information about my infidelities—in addition to many lies that he layered on top—to pressure me to re-engage with him,” Gates said. “He was unsuccessful in this effort, but it shows some of the ways he tried to leverage his interactions with me to further his agenda.”

The three women were two Russians and another woman who's been described as a doctor, according to a leak of Gates testimony leaked to the Wall Street Journal. Committee Democrats held a press conference in which they said Gates acknowledged having been in the company of women that were abused by Epstein or his colleagues. It's expected that the Oversight Committee will release a transcript of Gates' give-and-take with lawmakers, which reportedly became combative at times. 

Documents from the Epstein files revealed that Epstein and Gates met on several occasions after Epstein's 2008 conviction. Gates told the House committee that he met Epstein through "people I trusted in my professional and philanthropic work," and that Epstein promoted his ability to give tax and estate guidance. Gates expressed regret for not vetting Epstein. "I recall being aware that Epstein had faced prior legal issues, but I did not fully understand the extent of the crimes he committed. I accepted the introduction without applying the scrutiny I should have," said Gates in his opening remarks. He said he stopped communicating or meeting with Epstein in December 2014, after concluding that Epstein "would never deliver on his promises" of reeling in donors for the Gates Foundation.  

In an undated photo, Gates appears with Jeffrey Epstein's pilot, Lawrence Visoski (House Oversight Committee Democrats via USA Today)

Tapping a tiny sliver of his net worth of more than $100 billion, Gates went to truly extraordinary lengths to prepare for his appearance on the Hill -- even assembling a mockup of the room in which he would testify. That replica was put together in Palm Desert, California, near his home, the Journal reported:

The replica included a podium on one side with wood paneled furniture flanked by gold curtains to display where lawmakers would traditionally sit. The other side featured a large wooden table for the person responding to questions, along with microphones and several cameras, to mimic the space in Washington. 

Defying President Trump's wishes, the Epstein files were forced into public view by House representatives led by Republican Thomas Massie and Democrat Ro Khanna. Massie used a "discharge petition" to force a vote on legislation requiring the release of the documents. Last month, Massie lost a primary challenge funded by pro-Israel billionaires whose involvement in the contest made it the most expensive primary race in US history.  

Thomas Massie says he will publicly read the names of Epstein clients before leaving Congress.

Massie also says there will be no high-level arrests while Todd Blanche and Kash Patel remain in power. pic.twitter.com/bICUDSvgPD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 24, 2026

On a recent Meet the Press appearance, Massie said there are many files still hidden from the public, and he accused the acting US attorney general of violating the Epstein Files Transparency Act: "Todd Blanche is violating the law. There's still millions of files they haven't released." Massie promised to name more people whose identities are still redacted in the Epstein files. He also made an intriguing reference to Trump's First Lady: 

"I don't think it's possible to get to convictions with Todd Blanche at the top and with the FBI director, Kash Patel, at the top, because they have effectively both perjured themselves by saying there's nobody else in the files. Even Melania doesn't believe that. The First Lady knows that Jeffrey Epstein didn't act alone."

Massie has another seven months to help us understand exactly what that means -- a time during which he's empowered to spill Epstein-file secrets on the House floor with impunity, thanks to the Constitution's Speech and Debate Clause.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:45

Core Producer Prices Cooler Than Expected In April, Goods Costs Jump Most On Record

After yesterday's mixed bag from consumer prices (headline in-line but core cooler than expected and goods deflating), US Producer Prices were expected to keep accelerating higher (on a YoY basis) in May and they did... by more than expected.

Headline PPI rose 1.1% MoM in May (much hotter than the 0.7% MoM exp) but April's 1.4% MoM rise was revised down to +1.1% MoM. This left producer prices up 6.5% YoY (vs 6.4% exp and up from revised lower 5.7% in April)...

Source: Bloomberg

Services costs are the biggest contributor to the rise in the headline print...

And, echoing CPI, Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) printed cooler than expected at +0.4% MoM (+0.5% exp) with core PPI up 4.9% YoY (well below the 5.4% YoY exp and flat with April's revised lower 4.9%)...

Source: Bloomberg

PPI details:

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 2.8% in May, the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. 80% of the broad-based advance can be traced to a 10.7-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.

• Product detail: Over half of the May advance in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a 23.4% increase in the index for gasoline. Prices for diesel fuel, jet fuel, plastic resins and materials, industrial chemicals, and natural gas liquids also rose. In contrast, the index for pork fell 10.1 percent. Prices for residential electric power and for sanitary paper products also declined.

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.3% in May following a 0.7% advance in April. Leading the May increase, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.7%. The index for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 2.6 percent. Conversely, margins for final demand trade services decreased 1.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers).

• Product detail: Over 40% of the May advance in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 4.8-percent rise in prices for portfolio management. The indexes for truck transportation of freight; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; food wholesaling; and airline passenger services also increased. In contrast, margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling fell 1.9 percent. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing and for residential real estate loans (partial) also moved lower.

Trade Services dipped 1.1% MoM but Goods prices surged 2.8% MoM (driven by spiking Energy costs)...

This is the biggest jump in PPI Goods on record...

Commodity prices are accelerating...

But, arguably, the Energy component has peaked here...

And memory prices actually dipped according to PPI data...

The CPI-PPI spread is signaling increased pressure on corporate margins...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations ticked higher on the report (but are stable around one fuill hike in 2026 for now).

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:40

ECB Hikes Rates For First Time Since 2023 (As Expected); Cuts Growth, Hikes Inflation Outlook

As fully expected, The ECB hiked its key rate by 25bps (for the first time since 2023) as the policymakers battle with the dilemma of economic weakness combined with rising inflation.

Obviously, raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy, while easing rates to support growth increases the risk that higher inflation becomes persistent.

Clearly, Lagarde et al went with the former with its well-jawboned baseline having long been a hike in June with risks skewed toward a follow-up move in September (although a move in July can’t be ruled out).

“The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilizes at its 2% target in the medium term.

In line with this commitment, it today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.”

On the ECB's growth/inflation dilemma, they wrote:

“The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

The full implications of the war for medium-term inflation and growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect and second-round effects.”

The ECB’s new economic projections revise inflation upwards for 2026 and 2027 due to “a higher path for energy prices, which, to some extent, is expected to feed into food, goods and services inflation.”

New (higher) inflation forecasts suggest more short-term pain with 2027 and 2028 seeing price pressures ease :

• *ECB SEES 2026 INFLATION AT 3%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.6%
• *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION AT 2.3%; PRIOR FORECAST 2%
• *ECB SEES 2028 INFLATION AT 2%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.1%

Growth is seen slowing in the same period due to the impact of the war on commodity prices, real incomes and consumer confidence.

New (lower) GDP forecasts follow a similar path with short-term weakness rotating into modest improvement in 2027 and 2028 (but not exactly thrilling growth still):

• *ECB SEES 2026 GDP GROWTH AT 0.8%; PRIOR FORECAST 0.9%
• *ECB SEES 2027 GDP GROWTH AT 1.2%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.3%
• *ECB SEES 2028 GDP GROWTH AT 1.5%; PRIOR FORECAST 1.4%

As Bloomberg's Alessandro Migliaccio notes, the new economic projections paint a grim picture.

The higher inflation will strengthen the ECB’s conviction that a rate increase was needed to keep to its mandate of price stability.

The slower growth however, may see some countries grumbling against too much tightening.

EUR was flat ahead of the ECB decision and the initial market reaction is muted.

The rate hike was fully priced in, and traders had already anticipated upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

As expected, and just like in March, the ECB has also produced new scenarios to account for the uncertainty it continues to face. These will be published together with the new projections after the press conference.

Watch the ECB press conference live here (due to start at 0845ET):

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:25

Futures Rise, Oil Drops As US Ends Iran Strikes

US equity futures are higher led by tech and small caps, with traders buying the dip in stocks as a swift conclusion to the latest round of US strikes against Iran raised expectations that talks over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will get back on track. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.7% to recover from a five-week low after Trump forewarned Iran would be hit “very hard,” followed by swift and superficial strikes; Nasdaq 100 contracts rise 1.1% with all Mag 7 stocks higher led by TSLA (+1.5%) and NVDA (+1.2%); ORCL is down 7% although that’s a better showing than in the postmarket after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates. Bond yields are 1-3bp lower. Overall, we have seen an escalation in the US/Iran since Tuesday but the escalation is relatively limited given that the US Central Command have declared the operation complete. War jitters promptly faded after US Central Command called an end to “additional self-defense” strikes about four hours after launching attacks on multiple targets in Iran, with Brent reversing gains to trade 1% lower below $92 a barrel. Commodities are mixed: WTI crude fell $1.15 to $88.87; base metals are mostly lower, while previous metals are higher.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1%, Nvidia +0.7%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Apple +0.4%, Microsoft unchanged.)

• Chipmakers and other AI-related firms rise after Oracle reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, driven by increased data center spending.
• Rocket, satellite and space-linked companies gain, putting the sector on track to rebound after the recent slump.
• Eaton (ETN) gains 2% after agreeing to merge its mobility business with Dana Inc. in a deal valuing the combined company at roughly $10 billion including debt. Shares of Dana (DAN) are down 2%.
• Intel (INTC) rises 4% after BofA Global Research raised its recommendation to buy from underperform on expected growth from central processing unit sales.
• Navan (NAVN) gains 19% after the AI-powered travel and expenses platform boosted its total revenue outlook for the full year.
• Oracle (ORCL) falls 8% after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business.
• Stitch Fix (SFIX) rises 3% after the online personal styling platform raised its full-year forecast for net revenue from continuing operations.
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) climbs 6% after BTIG started coverage on the space and defense company with a buy rating, citing growth potential.

In other corporate news, activist investor Elliott hit back at Australia’s biggest gold stock Northern Star Resources by urging the beleaguered miner’s board to take urgent action and reconsider a sale as its valuation flounders. Co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s said the ice cream brand’s new owner Magnum is in the “process of destroying” the Cherry Garcia maker’s future.  Meta has completed an operational split from Manus and halted data sharing between the two companies, taking a pivotal step toward unwinding a $2 billion acquisition opposed by Beijing. Shares of Alibaba and JD.com fell after Chinese regulators scolded leading e-commerce players for what it called misleading promotions. 

AI takes center stage again, with OpenAI considering drastic token price cuts, Goldman’s renewed estimate of explosive Hyperscaler capex growth, Oracle’s eye-watering spending forecasts and Citadel Securities’ “Tokenomics” report outlining how AI hype has been built on capabilities. The reckoning will focus on costs. 

Citadel Securities strategist Frank Flight notes the recent decline in token prices may reflect a shift toward cheaper AI models, as even the most powerful technologies must pass through “the prosaic discipline” of cost curves, capacity constraints and marginal returns. OpenAI is said to be considering drastically lowering the prices it charges users for its tokens as it seeks to win customers from its arch-rival Anthropic, according to the WSJ. 

Coming into Oracle’s results — the first for the new CFO, and with the stock up roughly 50% since April lows — the key question for investors was whether the company could balance growth and demand with capex and financing needs. In a microcosm of the AI bull and bear debate, Oracle delivered solid revenue growth of 20%, but forecast that its capex-to-sales ratio will accelerate to an eye-watering 100% next fiscal year.

Equities linked to the artificial-intelligence trade have turned volatile in recent days after powering global stocks to all-time highs on the back of strong earnings, with traders questioning whether the rally has run too far.

“Sentiment trends are shifting very quickly since Friday’s selloff and the market has become much more volatile and much more selective,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “Even if the trend remains upward, brace for some more erratic moves ahead.”

Meanwhile, anticipation is building for the market debut of SpaceX, whose $75 billion first-time share sale is due to price later on Thursday. The offering has attracted demand for more than four times the available shares. The offerings from SpaceX, and potentially others such as OpenAI, are raising questions about whether investors will pull money from existing stocks to fund the deals, or whether they will fuel further enthusiasm for AI shares.

“There’s nervousness about how markets will react,” said Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for Asia Pacific and the Middle East at Etoro Ltd. “How markets absorb the biggest listing in history at a rich valuation will tell us a lot about whether the appetite for the AI trade is still sky high.”

Veteran short seller Jim Chanos said SpaceX was a “hopes and dreams IPO,” driven more by investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk and AI than financial fundamentals, arguing its valuation is difficult to justify on any reasonable assumptions. The retail investment excitement is near fever pitch and showing up in pre-IPO trading and a 3x levered SpaceX product is planned.  

Worries about further Iran war escalation lingered as President Donald Trump told Fox News the US would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an interim peace deal. Iran’s foreign ministry said the latest attacks rendered the existing ceasefire deal “meaningless.” Traders, however, drew reassurance from the belief that further escalation was to neither side’s advantage. 

“We’re keeping our overweight equity exposure,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions. “The market has taken the view that Trump doesn’t want to escalate further and has no interest in seeing oil prices surge again.”

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates later on Thursday for the first time since 2023, concluding it can no longer ignore inflationary pressures stemming from the war in Iran. Traders will also follow comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde on policymakers’ outlook for the months ahead. President Christine Lagarde plans a news conference at 8:45am

European stocks also advance with a pullback in oil prices providing an additional tailwind. Treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down 2bps to 4.53%. The oil price rose, lifting energy shares, after the US military launched strikes against “multiple” targets in Iran. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Beijer Ref gains as much as 10% after EQT’s Breeze TopCo agreed to sell its entire holding of non-listed A-shares in the Swedish industrial heating and cooling firm to Melker Schorling AB (MSAB) at an undisclosed premium
• BASF gains as much as 2.1%, rebounding from its lowest level in over two months, after being upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux, whose analysts raised their earnings expectations for the German chemicals firm
• Wizz Air rises as much as 6.7% after the airline eked out FY net profit, beating expectations of a €35 million loss. Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed to signs of normalization in consumer confidence and solid revenue guidance for 1Q 2027
• Grafton Group rises as much as 3.5%, hitting a one-month high, after the building supplies company outlined medium-term targets ahead of its capital markets day. Analysts said the goals are ambitious but can be delivered
• Puuilo gains as much as 12% to a record high after the Finnish home goods retailer reported stronger sales. DNB Carnegie says the print shows excellent delivery in the quarter, primarily driven by strong customer traffic
• Halma falls as much as 15%, the most since 1993, after the UK industrial group’s guidance for its Photonics business fell short of expectations, the key disappointment in an otherwise solid earnings report
• European software stocks drop after Oracle reported weak sales from its traditional software business; Oracle reported 4Q cloud applications sales that missed consensus estimate
• Camurus drops as much as 9.6% after the biopharmaceutical firm said it received a complete response letter from the US FDA in relation to its new drug application for Oclaiz, a treatment for patients with a rare hormonal condition
• Sligro Food Group plunges as much as 13%, marking the sharpest drop in 11 months after being downgraded at Oddo BHF, whose analysts said there are “no mid-term supportive arguments for a bullish investment case”
• RWS Holdings shares fall as much as 19% to their lowest since April after the British AI company’s earnings noted a £2 million hit from FX swings
• Voltalia drops as much as 9.7%, the most in five months, as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal-weight due to the French renewable-energy producer’s high financial leverage and its impact on growth

Asian stocks fell as rising oil prices and persistent tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.7% to its lowest level in three weeks before paring the decline. Alibaba Group and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest drags on the index, following concerns over pricing pressures.  South Korea’s Kospi rebounded and gained by 0.4%, while Indonesia’s benchmark dropped by 0.3%. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and China lead declines in the region. Momentum in regional stocks has weakened, with the Asian benchmark nearing its 50-day moving average. Investors remain jittery as US military launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for the second straight day, triggering gains in oil prices. 

Jun Bei Liu, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at hedge fund Ten Cap Investment, said investors were taking profit in tech stocks. “I think this dip will be bought,” she said, adding the market might be getting hopeful that the situation in the Middle East would deescalate after the US military said it had completed its latest strikes in Iran.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges higher while the euro is little changed ahead of the ECB decision later on Thursday.

In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve, slightly outperforming European bonds ahead of the ECB rate announcement at 8:15am New York time, with a decision to raise rates for first time since 2023 expected. US yields are 2bp-3bp richer on the day, keeping most curve spreads within 1bp of Wednesday’s close. 10-year, near session low 4.53%, outperforms German and UK counterparts by 0.5bp and 1.5bp. Treasuries have support from lower oil prices as signs of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz offset concern about fresh US attacks on Iran. Focal points of US session include May PPI data and 30-year bond reopening. The Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22 billion 30-year reopening at 1pm, following solid demand for 3- and 10-year note sales over past two days. 30-year WI yield near 5.01% is ~3.6bp richer than the May new-issue result

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down around 1.2% near session low. Brent crude futures fall more than 1% to below 92 with traders seemingly looking past fresh attacks between the US and Iran. Precious metals and Bitcoin also climb

US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and May PPI (8:30am) and 1Q household change in net worth (12pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• OpenAI is considering drastically lowering the prices it charges users as it seeks to win customers from its rival Anthropic. The company is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens, the unit of measurement artificial-intelligence firms use to bill for their products, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
• Donald Trump told Fox News that the US will launch more attacks on Iran unless it accepts an interim peace deal. His remarks followed another night of clashes between the two countries. Iran told ships with permits to cross the Strait of Hormuz to await guidance, saying it’s closed until further notice. BBG
• Efforts to reach an interim deal to end hostilities between Iran and the U.S. have intensified, three Iranian sources and a European official told Reuters on Thursday, despite strikes launched by both sides, as the warring parties discuss how to release frozen Iranian funds. RTRS
• A sharp fall in China’s crude oil imports during the Iran war has been instrumental in holding down oil prices and keeping the global economy humming. Clues are emerging in the mystery of the missing three million barrels—the oil that China would normally be importing but isn’t now. Chinese people are driving fewer gasoline-powered cars and taking trains instead of planes. WSJ
• SK Hynix plans to double its capacity within 5 years and triple it by 2034. Nikkei
• Shares of Alibaba and JD.com slid after Chinese regulators scolded leading e-commerce players for what it called misleading promotions. BBG
• The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates on Thursday in the hope of nipping higher inflation in the bud before a surge in energy costs triggered by the Iran war spreads ‌more broadly across the euro zone economy. RTRS
• S&P upgraded Argentina’s credit rating to B-, citing President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and improved liquidity access. BBG
• The Knicks staged the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history, rallying from a 29-point deficit to defeat the San Antonio Spurs 107-106 in Game 4. The win gave New York a 3-1 series lead, one victory away from its first NBA championship since 1973. BBG
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 6th Jun) +6.1% (prev. +5.2% W/W, +4.8% in Apr); entertainment, clothing, HI, furniture and transit saw the biggest acceleration.

Top Iran News

• The US carried out fresh strikes against Iran, with US CENTCOM saying that American forces began launching additional self-defence strikes, and then later announcing that it completed the strikes, targeting Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran. In response, Iran's military command centre announced the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to all vessels, effective immediately, and threatened to hit any vessels crossing the strait. Iran's IRGC also said it launched two waves of retaliatory strikes, hitting and destroying 18 key military targets in US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
• Following the overnight strikes, an Iranian source told Reuters that Iran and the US are still in negotiations over a preliminary deal, which includes a mechanism for unfreezing funds. This followed commentary by the Pakistani Foreign Minister stating that we remain engaged with a degree of optimism. The minister added that channels of communication remain open and Pakistan and Qatar remain engaged in mediation efforts. To add, CNN reported first, citing a source, stating that US-Iran talks still continue despite US-Iran military exchange.
• US President Trump said on Wednesday evening that fighter jets were operating over the skies of Iran, and he spoke directly with Iranian officials. Trump added that Iranians asked him to stop bombing, while he said the bombing will stop shortly, but left the option open for more strikes. Trump also stated that Israelis were not involved in Iran strikes and that the US fired 49 Tomahawk missiles, as well as noting that Iran must choose between war or a new deal and warned 'we'll bomb them to rubble tomorrow night' if there is no deal.
• Tasnim cited a reliable source stating that Trump's claim that Iranian officials spoke with him directly and wanted the bombing to stop is completely false, while the source added that no contact has been established with Trump and that Iran responds to aggression with military action.
• US President Trump held a Situation Room meeting on Iran strike options, while sources said one option Trump was considering was launching an operation that is big in scale but short in duration, according to Axios. However, NYT later reported that officials held a Situation Room meeting regarding the Epstein files and that the meeting was held without Trump.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth said Central Command would be busy overnight and that the US would hit Iran hard, with the US to bomb key facilities in Iran, and strikes would be strong and clear.
• IRGC Navy said vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz is considered cooperation with the enemy and "We warn that no vessel should leave its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman", ISNA reported.
• Iran said applicants who have received a transit permit are asked to be patient and await further guidance from the PGSA, IRIB reported and repeated that the Strait remains closed until further notice.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident 21NM Northeast of Sohar, Oman. Iran's Sirik Governor later said the US projectile hit a cargo boat in the Gulf of Oman.
• A 7th vessel carrying Qatari LNG is understood to have transited the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler's Bakr reported.
• India's embassy within Oman said they were informed on Thursday of an incident that involved a vessel in proximity to the Shinas port.
• Israeli airstrike targets a facility in Western Bekaa, central Lebanon, Al Hadath reported.
• Israeli airstrikes reported on towns in southern Lebanon, Al Mayadeen reported.**

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined in a continuation of the recent tech reversal, and as the US conducted strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, which prompted Iran to retaliate by targeting US bases in the region and ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also declared the waterway closed to all vessels. However, stocks then gradually pared losses given that the fresh strikes were widely telegraphed beforehand and with relief also seen after CENTCOM announced that US forces completed the strikes. ASX 200 was pressured with the downside led by underperformance in tech and the top-weighted financials sector, although losses were stemmed by resilience in energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open owing to the fresh hostilities in the Middle East, with headwinds seen amid higher oil prices and upside in yields, although the index then staged a recovery and returned to flat territory before a renewed bout of selling persisted. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp followed suit to the weakness across global markets, with several tech stocks clustered among the list of worst performers.

Top Asian News

• Japan PM Takaichi and US President Trump are arranging a meeting during the G7, Nikkei reported.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he doesn't think BoJ Governor Ueda's temporary hospitalisation will affect the BoJ's policy conduct and cooperation with the government.
• PBoC Governor Pan reiterated the depth and breadth of China's financial market, provide key allocation opportunities for overseas institutional investors.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) trade with broad gains despite another round of US-Iran strikes. The US targeted Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran, while Iran's IRGC said it launched two waves of retaliatory strikes, hitting and destroying 18 key military targets in US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Germany's DAX 40 (U/C) underperforms, weighed on by losses in SAP (-4.4%) following Oracle's earnings. European sectors trade mixed. Utilities (+1.3%) tops the list, with Energy (+1.2%) and Banks (+1.2%) round out the top 3. Autos (-0.4%), Real Estate (-0.4%) and Telecoms (-1.0%) are the underperformers.

Top European News

• France and Germany are discussing proposals for a radical overhaul of the EU’s diplomatic service in an attempt to improve the response to geopolitical crises, according to FT.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck in relatively thin trade into the ECB meeting and US PPI.
• A busy morning in terms of newsflow, has not translated into price action/vol for G10s which are mixed against the flat Buck. Gradual weakness in Crude benchmarks seen among slew of optimistic US-Iran updates (see feed from 08:21-38 BST), did little to move DXY from its 100.00 handle despite Brent edging to session lows under USD 92/bbl. In short, it appears negotiations continue despite the recent exchange of fire. The Greenback seems less sensitive to geopolitical headlines as markets interpret recent US data with PPI ahead.
• CAD is the worst G10 performers as energy weakness pressures the Loonie. On Wednesday, the BoC held rates at 2.25% with some dovish undertones. Although release and accompanying remarks from Macklem/Rogers were a repeat from April, ING notes its use of language such as “excess supply” and “looking through” inflation may have offered the Loonie. Amid the recent weakness in energy benchmarks, USD/CAD could approach the 1.40 level should US PPI print hot.
• The main EUR event today will be the ECB meeting, where the Governing Council is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. This is justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario. Attention will be on language regarding a July move, where interest rate futures currently assign a 30% probability of tightening. EUR has been moving lower on account for recent USD upside as mentioned above. EUR/USD trades within recent parameters in the middle of a 1.15-16 band. If the ECB indicates further tightening, that could see the pair test resistance at 1.1570/80, whereas a dovish council may see recent lows of 1.15 tested, in conjunction with hot US PPI.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark. This comes amidst another US strike on Iranian military targets, which led to retaliation from the Iranians. This led energy higher overnight, but then came off best levels as CENTCOM announced the latest bout of attacks are completed. Thereafter, energy benchmarks turned negative after CNN reported that US-Iran talks are continuing. This helped global fixed paper to clamber off worst levels, with the complex generally sitting towards highs.
• USTs (+2 ticks) trade towards the upper end of a 108-27 to 109-06+ range. The trough of the day was formed overnight, which coincided with the peaks in the energy complex. Thereafter, US paper clambered off worst levels, as the geopolitical environment eased. Domestically, focus will be on the US PPI report, which, together with Wednesday's broadly in-line CPI report, will be used as a key determinant for next week’s Fed policy announcement. The policy rate is unlikely to be adjusted, but focus will be on comments pertaining to the easing bias removal. Also on the docket today is a 30yr auction, which follows on from a decent 3yr outing and a strong 10yr auction. This notably comes despite the ongoing volatility and hawkish Fed repricing.
• Bunds (+9 ticks) are trading towards the upper end of a 124.88 to 125.29 range, currently driven by events in the Middle East, though focus will come back to Europe where the ECB is set to deliver a 25bps hike this afternoon. Given markets widely expect a hike, focus will be on the accompanying statement and President Lagarde to see if/how hawkish the Bank shifts. The likelihood is that Lagarde will keep optionality; ING opines that she will want to avoid “sounding too dovish”.
• Gilts (-3 ticks) are essentially flat and trade within a 87.39 to 87.60 range. Ultimately, moving at the whim of geopolitical developments. Domestic newsflow has been light, with some focus on Burnham comments where he suggested he would support Waspi Women, a compensation scheme believed to cost upwards of GBP 10bln. With the UK newsflow light, Gilts will likely take leads from this afternoon’s US PPI and ECB announcement.
• UK sells GBP 5.0bln 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.60x (prev. 3.35x), average yield 4.419% (prev. 4.238%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Italy sells EUR 4.0bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-4.0bln 3.00% 2029 BTP: b/c 1.62x, average yield 3.03%.

Commodities

• The US carried out fresh strikes against Iran, with US CENTCOM saying that American forces began launching additional self-defence strikes, and then later announcing that it completed the strikes, targeting Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across Iran. In response, Iran's shut the Strait of Hormuz and launched its own attack on some Gulf nations.
• Despite these strikes, an Iranian source tells Reuters that Iran and the US are still in negotiations over a preliminary deal, including a mechanism over unfreezing funds, while the Pakistan Foreign Minister said they remain engaged with a degree of optimism. Prior to that, CNN sources outlined that US-Iran talks continue, despite the US-Iran military exchange.
• Crude futures have completely pared the earlier gains. WTI Jul'26 reversed at the 50-SMA (USD 93.48/bbl) and currently trades at the lower end of its USD 88.77-93.64/bbl range. For Brent Aug'26, the benchmark has slipped below USD 92/bbl (USD 91.72-95.50/bbl range).
• Precious metals rebound following the drop in the last few days, action driven by several previously discussed factors. Spot gold dipped below the March 26th low of USD 4099/oz in Wednesday's session and extended to a trough of USD 4024/oz early in the Asia-Pac day. Since then, the yellow metal has bid higher and now trades at the upper end of its USD 4024-4118/oz range.
• 3M LME Copper gapped lower at the start of trade, following the selloff in APAC equities, but has since oscillated in a USD 13.39k-13.52k/t range.
• Japan's PM Takaichi said that she expects to secure 100% of crude in July, without passing the Strait of Hormuz.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted daily price-limit bands and trading margin ratios for gold and silver futures contracts

US Eco Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun 6 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220k, prior 225k
• 8:30 am: May 30 Continuing Claims, est. 1785k, prior 1777k
• 8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 1.4%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 6.4%, prior 6%
• 8:30 am: May PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.4%, prior 5.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The rise in oil prices has continued this morning after the US launched fresh strikes against Iran for a second day running. So investors are increasingly pessimistic that a deal will be reached anytime soon, or that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. That’s meant Brent crude is up another +1.70% overnight to $94.68/bbl, building on yesterday’s gains. And as a result, global equities are at a one-month low, with the S&P 500 (-1.62%) posting a fresh slump yesterday. Moreover, those losses have shown no sign of easing in Asia, with the Hang Seng (-1.05%), the CSI 300 (-1.07%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.73%) and the Nikkei (-0.19%) all losing ground this morning. The one bright spot is that futures on the S&P 500 (+0.33%) have stabilised overnight, but the overall backdrop is one of mounting volatility as investors have priced a growing chance of further escalation.

All that follows a day of mounting threats, which culminated in several US strikes overnight. US Central Command framed them as “additional self-defense strikes” on “multiple targets”. Meanwhile, Fox News reported that President Trump had told them he would bomb Iran again today if they didn’t sign an agreement. So fears of a further escalation were very much in focus, and Iran’s Press TV said they’d targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain using various attack drones.  

Even before those latest US strikes overnight, markets had already posted fresh declines yesterday as US-Iran tensions continued to mount. The first uptick in oil prices followed a post from President Trump, who said that Iran have “taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!” So that raised fears about an escalation, and a few hours later, Trump then said the US would “hit Iran hard again today”, suggesting that further action was on the table.

Those initial headlines led to a clear jump for oil, with Brent crude (+1.80%) ending the day at $93.10/bbl. Moreover, as investors dialled back the chance of a near-term resolution, longer-dated oil futures also moved higher, with the 6-month Brent future up +1.55% on the day to $85.89/bbl. And on Polymarket, there was increasing doubt that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen anytime soon, with the probability of normal traffic by end-July down to 26% by the close. Admittedly, there were a couple of headlines that were more positive. For instance, Fox News reported a senior White House official on background, who said “the talks still continue”. Meanwhile, Iran’s ISNA reported that a Qatari delegation had arrived in Tehran yesterday, for talks on diplomacy with the US. But for markets, investors have priced out the likelihood of a near-term deal, particularly with the latest strikes overnight.

With signs of a near-term resolution fading, investors grew more concerned about the stagflationary scenarios again, with bonds and equities selling off on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, the S&P 500 (-1.62%) fell to a one-month low, with tech stocks including the NASDAQ (-1.98%) and the Magnificent 7 (-2.23%) leading the way. The selloff was a classic rotation out of growth and cyclicals into defensives as Telecoms (+2.25%), Food & Bev (+1.98%) and Consumer Staple Retail (+1.86%) were the best performing S&P 500 industry groups, while Autos (-3.92%), Capital Goods (-3.88%), and Semiconductors (-3.76%) were the biggest laggards. And over in Europe, it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-0.08%) down for a 4th consecutive session to a three-week low.

While geopolitics provided the main headlines, there were also developments on the AI-capex front as well. Most notably, Oracle shares fell -10.25% in after-hours trading after they reported higher capex spending than estimated, adding to doubts about the profitability of AI infrastructure like data centres. Otherwise, the company also announced plans to raise another $40bn in equity and debt, including a previously disclosed plan to issue $20bn in shares.   

For sovereign bonds it was much the same story of losses, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +3.6bps to 4.55% by the close. And that increase came despite the more positive impact from the US CPI print, where monthly core CPI was softer than expected, which helped to dial back some of the speculation about a Fed rate hike this year. So the release showed headline CPI up as expected in May, with a +0.5% monthly print that took the year-on-year reading to +4.2%. But core CPI was softer at +0.2% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), with the year-on-year measure at +2.9%. But for sovereign bonds, the temporary relief from the CPI print was outweighed by the more negative geopolitical headlines and higher oil prices, so they still lost ground on the day.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also struggled ahead of today’s ECB decision. Once again, that was driven by the geopolitical headlines, with inflation fears ramping up. For instance, the 1yr Euro inflation swap was back up +4.85bps yesterday to 2.98%. And in turn, yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+4.1bps) and BTPs (+4.9bps) all moved higher again. That included a few records as well, with the 10yr OAT yield up to a post-2008 high of 3.85%, whilst Germany’s 10yr real yield (+2.7bps) hit a 5-month high of 0.83%.

Speaking of the ECB, they’ll be announcing their decision at 13:15 London time, where they’re widely expected to deliver a 25bp hike that lifts their deposit rate to 2.25%. That comes as inflation has clearly risen above target, and our European economists think the energy shock has now been large enough for the ECB to act. Indeed, the Euro Area flash CPI print for May was at 3.2%, whilst core CPI was also at a one-year high of 2.5%. In terms of what to look out for, given a hike is widely expected, a big question will be what they signal beyond this meeting about future hikes. Our economists think they’ll want to maintain optionality, and will keep further hikes on the table so markets don’t interpret today as a one-off move. 

Ahead of that, we also had the Bank of Canada’s latest decision yesterday. They left their policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as was widely expected, and they kept their options open given the current uncertainty. For instance, Governor Macklem suggested that if higher energy prices led to higher inflation, then “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate”. But he also suggested that additional US trade restrictions could mean they “may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth.” Against that backdrop, Canadian bonds saw a relative outperformance yesterday, with the country’s 10yr yield (+0.9bps) seeing a modest increase to 3.49%.

Finally, there were fresh tariff headlines as President Trump announced that he would not be reauthorising the country’s USMCA trade pact with Mexico and Canada agreed in his first term. He said “I’m not looking to renew it”, and without an extension, the deal would see rolling annual reviews while remaining in force for the next decade. It’s possible for a country to exit the deal with 6 months’ notice, but Trump did not say if he was considering this.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include the PPI reading for May, and the weekly initial jobless claims.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:19

A Small Win For Free Speech In UK

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

South Wales Police has shelved plans to record instances of "anti-Muslim hostility" that strayed beyond what officers considered "legitimate" discussion of Islam.

The force paused the policy after the Free Speech Union threatened judicial review and Shadow Equalities Minister Claire Coutinho referred it to the Equality and Human Rights Commission. Critics had warned the guidance functioned as a de facto blasphemy law in a country that scrapped such statutes 18 years ago.

The climbdown represents a tangible check on efforts to police speech through vague, subjective rules that empower authorities to decide what counts as acceptable criticism of one religion.

?? FSU Victory!!

The Free Speech Union has just heard from South Wales Police that it has withdrawn its guidance on "anti-Muslim hostility".

The force had effectively adopted its own Islamic blasphemy law, instructing officers to record any conversation that went beyond... pic.twitter.com/aEHeGGuxr5

- The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 9, 2026

Earlier this month, South Wales Police directed staff to log comments about Islam that exceeded the force's view of legitimate discourse. Anything beyond that line risked classification as an anti-social behaviour incident - the rebranded term for non-crime hate incidents. Those records could then appear in enhanced DBS checks, affecting employment prospects for teachers, carers and others in regulated roles.

The approach effectively "gold-plated" the UK government's March definition of anti-Muslim hostility. While ministers included explicit free speech safeguards stating the definition was not meant to inhibit criticism of Islam or Islamic practices, South Wales Police added its own subjective layer. Officers gained discretion to judge speech on the spot.

Free Speech Union General Secretary Lord Young highlighted the danger at the time:

"Our concern is that police forces and other public bodies adopting the definition will gold-plate it, ignoring those safeguards and penalising people for expressing misgivings about Islam, even when those views are rooted in evidence rather than prejudice. In particular, we are concerned that the default police response to reports of anti-Muslim hostility - even where they clearly fall outside the definition - will be to record them as 'anti-social behaviour incidents'... Those records may then be disclosed in enhanced DBS checks."

Conservative MP Katie Lam warned the framework would "make it harder to talk about Islamist extremism, FGM, and the grooming gangs. They'd rather restrict our right to criticise than deal with these problems head-on. It's putting us all in danger."

The definition itself emerged from a working group whose members had documented links to Islamist organisations previously avoided by governments. Concerns mounted that public bodies were creating special protections for one faith while documented issues with parallel societies, religious exclusion in housing, and extremism received softer treatment.

The Free Speech Union wrote directly to South Wales Police demanding withdrawal of the guidance. It argued the policy clashed with data protection rules and free speech protections. The group explicitly threatened judicial review if the force pressed ahead.

South Wales Police appear to be zealously enforcing their own version of an Islamic blasphemy law.

Officers have been instructed to record speech that goes beyond what they deem to be "legitimate" discussion of Islam.

This creates an extraordinarily restrictive category of... https://t.co/aW7PMkVM5c

- The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) June 8, 2026

Public exposure of the internal directive triggered swift backlash. Within days the force faced mounting pressure from multiple directions.

Then the force confirmed Tuesday it was pausing adoption of the bespoke anti-Muslim hostility definition.

The Free Speech Union noted the guidance would have threatened careers by creating disclosable records for speech that crossed an officer's personal line on Islam discussions. South Wales Police stated it would now seek guidance from the National Police Chiefs' Council before any further decision.

The Free Speech Union quickly declared victory and warned other forces against similar experiments.

This episode exposes how easily vague "hostility" frameworks can slide into selective speech monitoring. Officers were positioned as arbiters of acceptable thought on a single religion, with records that follow citizens into job applications.

Small victories matter. They prove that when civil society groups document the overreach, threaten credible legal action, and coordinate with opposition figures, even police forces reconsider. Other forces reportedly eyeing similar interpretations now have a clear signal: these policies carry real political and legal costs.

Britain scrapped blasphemy laws because no religion deserves a state-backed shield from criticism. Attempts to recreate that shield through the back door - whether dressed as community cohesion or hostility monitoring - deserve the same resistance. This pause shows such resistance can succeed when applied with precision and persistence.

Free speech protections exist to cover the difficult, the offensive and the evidence-based alike. When institutions try to carve out exceptions for one ideology, they erode the principle for everyone. The South Wales Police retreat is a reminder that those exceptions remain contestable.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 08:05

ECB Preview: First Rate Hike Since 2023

Markets expect the ECB to hike by 25bps, the first rate hike since 2023, but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. Goldman does not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush

SUMMARY (courtesy of Newsquawk)

• The ECB is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. Justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario.
• Alongside this, inflation forecasts will likely be upgraded and growth downgraded across 2026. The cut off date will have influence on the 2026 inflation view, with a later date likely to see less hawkish projections. For growth, any signs of or commentary around a technical recession being possible.
• Guidance from the statement will be non-commital with the ECB to perhaps stress a vigilant approach to policymaking, which could be interpreted as a hawkish-nod. Lagarde may be somewhat more explicit vs the statement, in an attempt to stop inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.

OVERVIEW: Recent developments place the ECB somewhere between the baseline and adverse scenarios outlined in March. An assessment that chimes with expectations for a 25bps hike and supports keeping options open for the remainder of the year. However, the balancing act between growth and inflation means that pre-committing to further tightening is not necessary at this point. Instead the ECB, whether via the statement and/or President Lagarde, will likely emphasize that it will be vigilant, or words to that effect, in safeguarding against price pressures in the EZ while acknowledging the deteriorating growth environment.

EUR/USD and the German 10yr yield approach the meeting around 1.1550 and 3.05% respectively. The market basecase, of a 25bps hike, elevated inflation forecasts and downgraded growth forecasts alongside no firm commitment to further tightening, would likely see a modest hawkish reaction in the above. If the ECB is more direct and places less emphasis on growth and more on inflation, alongside opening the door more explicitly to further tightening, ING looks for EUR/USD and the 10yr yield to rise to 1.1650 and 3.10%; levels we last traded at on the 2nd of June and 21st of May respectively. A more hawkish outcome, particularly a statement/press conference that signals the start of a tightening cycle, could see 1.1700 and 3.15%.

HAWKISH RISK: The projections could show a bigger core inflation overshoot in 2027, with greater concern around the inflation outlook in the monetary policy statement and a clearer signal that additional tightening is coming. For example, the Council could note in the statement that it judges it appropriate to “begin” tightening monetary policy (hinting at a process rather than a one-time adjustment) and Lagarde could open up July by emphasizing that the Council will have important data on second-round effects by then (provided by its corporate telephone, wage and inflation expectations surveys).  

DOVISH RISK: The Council could return to a two-sided assessment of the risks around inflation, show an inflation undershoot in 2028 (more similar to the March adverse scenario) and emphasize patience in the press conference (e.g., by stressing that it will receive a lot more data by the September meeting). 

PREVIOUS MEETING: In April, the ECB held the Deposit Rate at 2.00% as expected. The statement emphasized that the US is well positioned to navigate the current period of uncertainty, and as such they were not pre-committing to a particular rate path, sticking to a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. No new forecasts in April, but the commentary emphasised that upside inflation risks had “intensified”, while longer-term expectations remained “well anchored”. On the growth side, downside risk had “intensified”. The statement sparked a mild dovish reaction, as outside calls for a more hawkish shift were unwound. The subsequent press conference saw President Lagarde unveil that the ECB debated a rate hike, but the decision to hold rates was unanimous. A press conference that sparked a hawkish reaction in European assets. The hawkish skew was added to by subsequent sources, suggesting that a June hike was seen as very likely, Reuters reported.

PRICES: Mayʼs inflation data had a headline rate of 3.2%, ticking up from the 3.0% in April. Pertinently, the ECBʼs HICP Y/Y forecast for 2026 is 2.6% in the baseline, 3.5% in the adverse and 4.4% in the severe scenario. As such, the May print took the bloc further away from the baseline and towards the adverse projection, a point that factors firmly in favour of tightening monetary policy; though the gap to the severe scenario means a 50bps move or pre-committing to tightening post-June are not warranted yet. Within the May series, the internals saw further upside in the energy component and pertinently a jump in Services, to 3.5% from 3.0%. Continuing with May, the Final S&P PMIs showed price pressures intensifying “to their most worrying for over three years, hinting at inflation potentially running close to 4% in the coming months.”. A view that, if shared among policy setters, could see some in favour of more explicit guidance than the statement and/or Lagarde are likely to give. From the ECB itself, the latest Consumer Expectations Survey for April (released in June) vs March, showed one- and five-year consumer expectations remain the same at 4.0% and 2.4% respectively. While the three-year view moderated to 2.9% (prev. 3.0%). Figures that are all above the 2% long-term target, however, the unchanged view shows that expectations were not unanchored in April and, while somewhat dated, provides policymakers with further scope to take an “insurance” hike, given the clear price pressures, but not commit to anything further at this stage.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the above points to an upgrade of at the very least the baseline view, but likely also one or possibly both of the alternative scenarios. Specifically, Nordea expects the 2026 baseline to lift to 3.0% (prev. 2.6%). One point of nuance in the forecasts, particularly for prices, is the cutoff date. In March, the ECB used an exceptionally late cut-off date and a very small date range for the assessment. The above is based on that being repeated and an early June cut-off being used. If not, then the technical assumptions around energy will be significantly higher and as such the near-term inflation view would be more hawkish vs a later cut-off.

ECONOMY: Q1 GDP for the EZ stood at -0.2% Q/Q, after being subject to a marked downward revision in the 3rd estimate from 0.15%. However, some of this stems from a -12.1% print from Ireland, hit by the unwind of tariff and pharmaceutical related activity in the comparison. A more timely indication courtesy of the S&P PMI for May points to another -0.2% Q/Q print in Q2, bar any significant shift in June; if realised in the hard data, that would see the EZ enter a technical recession. Furthermore, the PMI showed a pick up in labour market losses. Unemployment data from member nations remains weak, with the EZ figure in April ticking up to 6.3% (prev. 6.2%). The most timely data available at the time of writing is the German GfK for June, which was bleak at -29.8 though it did improve slightly from -33.3 despite NIM outlining that the “negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East remains largely unchanged…”.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the data is indicative of a downgrade. In March, the 2026 baseline, adverse and severe scenarios were 0.9%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Nordea looks for the 2026 baseline to be downgraded to 0.7%. Taking the ECB closer but not to the adverse scenario from March, and as such chimes with the narrative for an insurance hike and while it does not aid the argument for further 2026 tightening, it does not shut the door to a post-June move.

COMMENTARY: Overall, commentary chimes with consensus for a 25bps hike in June, given recent economic developments, but that it is too soon to commit to any tightening thereafter. Recently, Schnabel (26th May) outlined that prices are between the baseline and the adverse scenario, adding that “in terms of persistence, we have actually moved beyond the adverse scenario, which assumed a rapid normalisation of oil prices.”. Prior to that, on the 26th of May, Schnabel said that they should hike in June irrespective of the peace proposal. Simkus (29th May) described a near term move as an insurance hike, but also downplayed the impact of even 50bps of tightening over 2026, noting that the timing for a second move is less clear. In terms of forward guidance, Lane (26th May) remarked that they will not be pre-commiting to a particular path after June.

TRADES: Goldman likes to receive July/September meeting switch at ~18bps (72% chance). The bank thinks that you can have both a (near term) hawkish path to no hike in September, as well as a dovish path. The (near term) hawkish path would involve no near-term resolution on Iran, with the SOH continuing to be closed by the time of the July meeting, leading to a second ECB hike in July. Subsequently, you could then either have a resolution between July and September, or signs of further economic weakness and limited wage pass through, meaning that, by the time of the September meeting, and with policy rates at the upper end of neutral, the ECB decides to skip a rate hike at the September meeting. The dovish path is one of a near term resolution and a glut of oil from ships stuck in SOH hitting the market, pushing down energy prices and inflation and inflation expectations. In this scenario, it is very feasible, that the ECB will not hike rates again after the June meeting. 

THOUGHTS FROM GOLDMAN'S TRADING DESK:

Jari Stehn (Head of European Economics): We expect the ECB to hike by 25bp but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. We do not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush. 

George Cole (Head of European Rates Strategy): Our bias is for terminal rate pricing lower and flatter curve. Key for today’s meeting will be the signal on July, currently priced not far off 50/50. If the message is that July is more of a tail outcome then market can shift towards pricing one and done, particularly given leak lower in energy prices on view that SoH is more impaired than fully shut with increasingly more oil transiting (though obviously a lot of headline risks with waR). Ultimately September is a long way off with ample time for resolution and/or the lower growth impacts of the war to come through. Specifically we will be watching: 

1. Core inflation forecasts and whether they show persistence – GS econ are 2.5% both for 26/27; would be dovish if lower/inverts 
2. Whether Lagarde emphasizes that tomorrow's move buys time to watch the data and that currently little signs of 2nd round effects in the labour market 

Jan Scheffel (Global Co-Head of Short Term Macro Trading): Given the high level of uncertainty we expect the ECB to keep full optionality on the future policy rate path, neither pre-committing or ruling out a move at the July meeting. We would expect Lagarde to use communication along the line of: “In assessing the timing and extend of further policy adjustments, the governing council will take a data-dependant, meeting by meeting, approach. We are not pre-committed to any policy path.” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:45

Strategy (MSTR) CEO Says Bitcoin Sale Was About Market 'Inoculation', Not A Retreat

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le somewhat pushed back Tuesday against the wave of criticism that followed the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, telling CNBC’s Power Lunch that the move was a deliberate, limited exercise designed to signal operational flexibility — not a philosophical reversal.

“We wanted to inoculate the market and we wanted to test our processes,” Le said in what the network described as a first-time interview. “We learned that everything works.”

Between May 26 and May 31, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 per coin — a transaction that, despite representing just 0.004% of the company’s total holdings, set off an outsized market reaction and reignited debate over whether Michael Saylor’s famous “never sell” doctrine was being abandoned.

BITCOIN’S FOUR-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL IN PLAY

Strategy CEO Phong Le however says the drawdowns are "much more" than just where we're at in the four-year cycle.

Inflation, rates, wars, and regulatory clarity are all shaping $BTC's next move. pic.twitter.com/TZANZZaQIF

— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) June 10, 2026

Le was careful to frame the disposal in terms of balance sheet management rather than conviction. He cited three reasons for the sale: establishing that Strategy can sell when necessary, confirming that internal systems for executing Bitcoin disposals are fully operational, and creating opportunities to capture tax losses on Bitcoin acquired at lower cost basis — the company has purchased BTC at prices ranging from $10,000 to $125,000 per coin.

Critically, he said the sale was not driven by financial distress.

“We did not need to sell our Bitcoin to satisfy our dividends,” Le said. “We’re able to do that through other capital-raising activities.”

Proceeds from the sale were directed toward distributions on the company’s STRC perpetual preferred stock.

Le also pointed out that Strategy remained a net buyer: on balance, the company purchased approximately 1,500 Bitcoin over the same period it sold the 32 coins.

The most pointed exchange came when the host pressed Le on the backlash from investors who believed Strategy had pledged never to liquidate its Bitcoin reserves. Le acknowledged the frustration but was unapologetic.

“We have a set of constituents that we have to be able to answer to,” he said, listing common stockholders, preferred shareholders, debt holders, and Bitcoin holders. “When it makes sense for our common stockholders for us to sell our Bitcoin, we will.”

Le suggested the loudest critics were retail investors and “crypto anarchists” ideologically committed to permanent hodling — not the institutional shareholders the company interacts with directly.

“Our institutional shareholders that we talked to don’t seem to be unnerved by it,” he said.

This was not Strategy’s first Bitcoin disposal. In December 2022, the company sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin and repurchased 810 BTC two days later — a tax-loss harvesting maneuver that exploited the lack of a crypto wash-sale rule.

Jeffrey’s chief market strategist David Zervos, who joined Le on set, asked about the macro picture around Bitcoin, noting weakness across traditional safe-haven assets. Le acknowledged the broader headwinds, citing three macro forces pressuring Bitcoin: uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, two ongoing global wars, and a lack of regulatory clarity from Congress on pending crypto legislation.

Still, Le remained bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. 

“I do think Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. I think Bitcoin is a hedge against big government,” he said, adding that the current environment — potentially a cyclical drawdown — mirrors the roughly 75% pullback seen in May 2022, four years ago.

Bitcoin price and Strategy shares under pressure

The market, for now, is less sanguine. Bitcoin was trading around $61,600 on June 10, 2026 — down more than 40% from its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025. The sell-off deepened after the Strategy announcement coincided with record spot ETF outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $3.5 billion, triggering $1.8 billion in forced liquidations in a single day.

MSTR shares have been caught in the same downdraft, trading near $117–$127 as of this week — down roughly 67% from their 52-week high of $457.

Strategy has since resumed buying, acquiring 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,332 between June 1 and June 7 in a move analysts characterized as an effort to restore market confidence. 

As of late May, the company held 845,256 Bitcoin at a total cost basis of approximately $63.97 billion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:20

Strategy (MSTR) CEO Says Bitcoin Sale Was About Market 'Inoculation', Not A Retreat

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le somewhat pushed back Tuesday against the wave of criticism that followed the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, telling CNBC’s Power Lunch that the move was a deliberate, limited exercise designed to signal operational flexibility — not a philosophical reversal.

“We wanted to inoculate the market and we wanted to test our processes,” Le said in what the network described as a first-time interview. “We learned that everything works.”

Between May 26 and May 31, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 per coin — a transaction that, despite representing just 0.004% of the company’s total holdings, set off an outsized market reaction and reignited debate over whether Michael Saylor’s famous “never sell” doctrine was being abandoned.

BITCOIN’S FOUR-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL IN PLAY

Strategy CEO Phong Le however says the drawdowns are "much more" than just where we're at in the four-year cycle.

Inflation, rates, wars, and regulatory clarity are all shaping $BTC's next move. pic.twitter.com/TZANZZaQIF

— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) June 10, 2026

Le was careful to frame the disposal in terms of balance sheet management rather than conviction. He cited three reasons for the sale: establishing that Strategy can sell when necessary, confirming that internal systems for executing Bitcoin disposals are fully operational, and creating opportunities to capture tax losses on Bitcoin acquired at lower cost basis — the company has purchased BTC at prices ranging from $10,000 to $125,000 per coin.

Critically, he said the sale was not driven by financial distress.

“We did not need to sell our Bitcoin to satisfy our dividends,” Le said. “We’re able to do that through other capital-raising activities.”

Proceeds from the sale were directed toward distributions on the company’s STRC perpetual preferred stock.

Le also pointed out that Strategy remained a net buyer: on balance, the company purchased approximately 1,500 Bitcoin over the same period it sold the 32 coins.

The most pointed exchange came when the host pressed Le on the backlash from investors who believed Strategy had pledged never to liquidate its Bitcoin reserves. Le acknowledged the frustration but was unapologetic.

“We have a set of constituents that we have to be able to answer to,” he said, listing common stockholders, preferred shareholders, debt holders, and Bitcoin holders. “When it makes sense for our common stockholders for us to sell our Bitcoin, we will.”

Le suggested the loudest critics were retail investors and “crypto anarchists” ideologically committed to permanent hodling — not the institutional shareholders the company interacts with directly.

“Our institutional shareholders that we talked to don’t seem to be unnerved by it,” he said.

This was not Strategy’s first Bitcoin disposal. In December 2022, the company sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin and repurchased 810 BTC two days later — a tax-loss harvesting maneuver that exploited the lack of a crypto wash-sale rule.

Jeffrey’s chief market strategist David Zervos, who joined Le on set, asked about the macro picture around Bitcoin, noting weakness across traditional safe-haven assets. Le acknowledged the broader headwinds, citing three macro forces pressuring Bitcoin: uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, two ongoing global wars, and a lack of regulatory clarity from Congress on pending crypto legislation.

Still, Le remained bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. 

“I do think Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. I think Bitcoin is a hedge against big government,” he said, adding that the current environment — potentially a cyclical drawdown — mirrors the roughly 75% pullback seen in May 2022, four years ago.

Bitcoin price and Strategy shares under pressure

The market, for now, is less sanguine. Bitcoin was trading around $61,600 on June 10, 2026 — down more than 40% from its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025. The sell-off deepened after the Strategy announcement coincided with record spot ETF outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $3.5 billion, triggering $1.8 billion in forced liquidations in a single day.

MSTR shares have been caught in the same downdraft, trading near $117–$127 as of this week — down roughly 67% from their 52-week high of $457.

Strategy has since resumed buying, acquiring 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,332 between June 1 and June 7 in a move analysts characterized as an effort to restore market confidence. 

As of late May, the company held 845,256 Bitcoin at a total cost basis of approximately $63.97 billion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 07:20

Alcoa Plunges Most In Year After CFO Warns Alumina Unit "Will Be Underwater" Amid Hormuz Disruption

Alcoa shares in New York were hammered the most in over a year on Wednesday after CFO Molly Beerman warned investors that the company's alumina segment faces heavy losses from the energy shock and ongoing disruption at the Hormuz maritime chokepoint.

Beerman was blunt with investors while giving a presentation at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference.

She said, "Our alumina segment is very pressured right now," adding, "The segment as a whole will be underwater."

Beerman said the unprofitability in the alumina segment stems from a toxic cocktail of soaring energy costs, supply disruptions in the Gulf region, and LNG disruptions in Western Australia following Cyclone Narelle.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are heavily exposed because they rely on fuel and electricity, and typically ship material to aluminum smelters in the Persian Gulf.

Alcoa's alumina refineries are mainly in Western Australia, Brazil, and Spain. None are located in the Gulf region.

What's important is that the company's refining assets are outside the Gulf, but its alumina cargoes feed Gulf smelters, making the business exposed to ongoing Hormuz shipping disruption and Gulf energy shocks.

Alcoa expects 2026 Alumina segment production of 9.7-9.9 million metric tons and shipments of 11.8-12.0 million metric tons.

Beerman's warning sent shares tumbling 9.5% in New York on Wednesday, marking the largest one-day drop in 14 months. Shares were up 2% in premarket trading, clawing back some of yesterday's losses.

Year-to-date, the stock is up 23.4% and is nearing its 2022 highs.

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish on AA. 

We have cited several institutional metal desks, including Mercuria, Goldman, and JPMorgan, all of which see the Gulf energy shock producing a supply shock in the aluminum market. This has sent prices back to 2022 highs.

Mercuria commodities analyst Nick Snowdon recently told Reuters on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, that "The scale of the supply shock we're seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era."

Snowdon then told the outlet, "We are already in a 'black swan' event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale."

Latest reporting:

• Aluminum Supply Crisis Is About To Get Worse
• Aluminum Bull Case Gains Traction As Output Shrinks

Alcoa recently warned investors that the energy shock would weigh on second-quarter earnings.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 06:55

Germany's Big LNG Deal With Canada May Never Deliver A Single Cargo

Authored by Andrew Topf via OilPrice.com,

• Germany has signed long-term LNG offtake agreements with Canada's Ksi Lisims project, seeking energy security and supply diversification amid heightened geopolitical risks.

• Despite the deals, Canadian LNG may never physically reach Germany due to geography, shipping economics, and the lack of Atlantic Coast export infrastructure.

• Instead, Germany could use LNG cargo swaps, sending Canadian gas to Asian buyers while receiving equivalent volumes from suppliers closer to Europe.

The Iran war has made supplies of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, the most strategic since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Suddenly, countries are scrambling to get their hands on molecules that provide reliable baseload power to industries and homes.

That explains why Germany is buying LNG from Canada. It’s to ensure long-term energy security, reduce reliance on volatile global supplies, and diversify away from Middle Eastern and Russian energy markets.

At the end of May, the Canadian government brokered a deal between the Ksi Lisims LNG facility planned for north of Prince Rupert, on the British Columbia coast, and German company SEFE, which is agreeing to buy 1 million tonnes of LNG per year for up to 20 years

Ksi Lisims LNG is a joint venture owned by the Nisga’a Nation, Texas-based Western LNG, and Rockies LNG, a consortium of Canadian natural gas producers.

The agreement marked the first long-term LNG supply arrangement between a Canadian project and a European buyer.

On June 8, a second, preliminary deal was announced. Germany’s Uniper signed a letter of intent with Ksi Lisims LNG for a possible offtake agreement of 2 million tonnes of LNG per year.

Construction of the facility, which has an annual capacity of 12 million tonnes, could begin in 2027, although there some significant hurdles to overcome.

First and foremost is a Final Investment Decision. To get an FID across the line, Ksi Lisims must show there is enough demand to start construction. The JV already has binding offtake agreements with Shell (NYSE:SHEL) and TotalEnergies. With SEFE and Uniper, up to 7 million tonnes have been annually committed. Will that be enough, and will the facility be profitable in a future LNG market? Ksi Lisims must decide.

The $10 billion project is also facing political and legal challenges about the environmental impacts increased gas production and shipping will have on the area:

Two B.C. Supreme Court petitions were filed over the provincial government's decision last year to deem the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline "substantially started," meaning it wouldn't need a new environmental assessment.

The liquefied natural gas pipeline's construction, which was authorized in 2014, and a deadline to start it was extended to 2024, spurring the court challenges from Gitxsan Hereditary Chief Charlie Wright and environmentalist groups opposed to the project.

Construction started in 2024 but the pipeline is not yet finished.

These are all significant obstacles, but the bigger question is how Ksi Lisims would get the LNG from the Canadian West Coast to Germany.

Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre has said the better option would be to ship it from the east coast. But there are currently no operational LNG export plants on that side of Canada; only an import and peaking facility in New Brunswick owned by Repsol.

The only large-scale LNG facility in operation is LNG Canada in Kitimat, close to the proposed Ksi Lisims plant. The first phase of LNG Canada was finished in 2025; a year ago it loaded its first export cargo.

When asked why Ottawa wouldn’t pipe LNG across the country, then ship it directly across the Atlantic to Germany, the energy minister said it's cheaper to move the product by water — through the Panama Canal — than it is to pay tolls through a pipeline.

In practice, Germany may never receive LNG directly from Ksi Lisims, despite the project signing two separate offtake agreements.

Instead, the German companies could employ a concept that is becoming increasingly common in LNG markets: cargo swaps

Here’s how it works:

Instead of purchasing the LNG and physically delivering it to Germany, the companies would purchase the cargo and redirect it to buyers in Japan, South Kora, Taiwan or other Asian markets. In exchange, the companies would receive LNG from suppliers closer to Europe, like the US, Qatar, Algeria or Norway.

The result, says EnergyNow via the Financial Post, is lower shipping costs, shorter transit times, reduced congestion risk, and greater flexibility while maintaining the same overall gas supply balance.

This is already how major LNG portfolio players such as Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and SEFE manage global supply chains. LNG contracts increasingly represent access to molecules rather than a commitment to move specific molecules from one point to another.

In the end, “the molecule doesn’t matter as much as the contract.”

A Canadian LNG contract provides supply from a stable democracy, reduced exposure to political disruptions, diversification from a single supplier, and long-term contractual security, states EnergyNow.

Reuters previously reported that German buyers are increasingly interested in acquiring Canadian LNG cargoes specifically because they can be swapped within global markets. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson noted that European buyers see value in holding Canadian LNG positions even if the fuel is ultimately consumed elsewhere.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 05:00

California Gets 80% Of All Federal Cash For Illegal Immigrant Families: Report

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

California is home to the lion’s share of illegal immigrant families in the United States with children who received federal welfare assistance in 2024, according to a federal report published on June 10.

More than 80 percent of all nationwide cash assistance allocated to such households was spent in California. The report tracked $759 million in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) spent in 2024 on families headed by a parent living in the country illegally.

In those cases, the child qualified for federal welfare, even though the parent was excluded from the federal program because of immigration status.

“These cases receive relatively little public attention, yet ... data show that they are far from a negligible part of the program,” wrote authors David Swegle, director of the Office of Family Assistance at the Administration for Children and Families under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and Alex J. Adams, assistant secretary at the Administration for Children and Families, in the report.

Nationally, the federal government paid 85,000 households with qualifying children receiving assistance who were living with their illegal immigrant parents in the U.S. in 2024.

“Although the benefit is formally paid on behalf of the child, it still supports a household that includes an immigration-status-ineligible parent,” the authors stated. “The significance of these cases therefore cannot be judged solely by the fact that the adult is not the formal recipient.”

The cases are also significant because they don’t have to adhere to the TANF rules requiring work expectations, such as regularly applying for jobs, and the payments aren’t limited to the federal 60-month lifetime limit, according to the report. The illegal immigrant families, therefore, can receive federal welfare until the child turns 18 years old.

Low-income American families are held to the federal welfare restrictions that require work participation and are restricted to a 60-month lifetime limit, the authors said.

The number of TANF cases involving an illegal immigrant parent reached nearly 850,000—or 10 percent of all cases—in 2024, up from nearly 6 percent in 2001.

Of those, nearly 78,000 households—or about 91 percent—also received federal food assistance through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the report revealed.

Most of the illegal immigrant parents—over 106,000—identified as Hispanic, while 5.3 percent were White, 4.3 percent were Black, and 2 percent were Asian, the report stated.

California was the primary driver of the national totals, according to the report.

In 2024, the state accounted for nearly 60,000 affected households, or about 70 percent of the national total of the illegal immigrant-headed households.

The state’s annual cash assistance paid to those homes reached about $618 million, or about 81 percent of nationwide spending on these cases, the authors reported.

The average monthly benefit in California for child-only households with illegal immigrant parents increased from an estimated $408 in 2013 to $875 in 2024—an increase of 114.5 percent, according to the report.

“No other state approached California’s combination of scale, concentration, and fiscal impact,” the authors stated in the report.

The next-largest states were New York, with about 7,635 households and about $47.5 million in annual cash assistance, followed by Massachusetts at about 3,777 households and about $27.3 million, and Washington at about 1,796 households and about $12.2 million, the report found.

From 2001 to 2024, the U.S. spent about $18.3 billion in TANF cash assistance on these cases involving illegal immigrant parents with welfare-recipient children, according to the report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 20:55

MSFT Restricts Internal Use Of Claude Fable Over Data-Retention Concerns; BMO Calls Anthropic A Leading Pure-Play AI Lab

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, a next-generation "Mythos-class" AI model, on Tuesday. The model is designed to restrict dangerous capabilities in areas such as cybersecurity and biological research after CEO Dario Amodei warned about risks last month.

The model gives users access to Anthropic's more powerful Mythos model, which the company had previously deemed too risky for public release last month. However, when users ask about sensitive topics, such as bioweapons or software exploitation, Fable 5 redirects them to the older Claude Opus 4.8 model.

"We maintain that Anthropic is the leading pure-play AI lab, combining best-in-class model intelligence with its cutting-edge, benchmark-leading Claude Fable 5 frontier model released June 9, 2026; with clear commercial traction and momentum in its enterprise offerings," BMO analyst Brian Pitz wrote in a note earlier today.

Pitz noted, "Anthropic's strengths are particularly evident in coding, agents, and enterprise, where Claude has emerged as a leading model powering tools such as Claude Code and Cowork, both of which have scaled rapidly. This reinforces the company's advantage in translating model intelligence beyond benchmark performance into viable, real-world applications—what we view as the next key battleground in AI."

The release of Claude Fable 5 prompted Pitz's team to declare, "While it is too early to crown a winner among foundation models, we see Anthropic and OpenAI as the leading pure-play AI labs today."

The Verge's Tom Warren reported that Claude Fable 5 has already raised security concerns within Microsoft, prompting the tech giant to limit internal employee access to the model due to Anthropic's data-retention requirements.

Warren said that Claude Fable 5 has been rolled out to GitHub Copilot and Foundry customers but is not available in the internal GitHub Copilot model picker used by Microsoft employees. Other Claude models remain available internally because they operate under zero data retention rules.

He said the issue centers around Anthropic's safety architecture. Claude Fable 5 requires Anthropic to retain prompts and outputs for 30 days to operate new safety classifiers, while some flagged content can be stored for up to two years if it violates usage policies. These rules could potentially create risks for confidential information.

Pitz published the current AI leaderboard overview with Anthropic's models on top (but at the time of the note, Claude Fable 5 was not included):

Western AI Models Comparison

BMO analysts see the release of new advanced models driving AI revenue to $1.8 trillion by 2032. That would mean the market has expanded at an average annual growth rate of 48% since ChatGPT launched in 2022.

Token prices have declined over the last six days.

"Adoption is becoming less about what frontier models can do and more about the price... the recent drop in the token index may reflect some of this shift toward cheaper models," Citadel analysts noted (read). 

Token prices down 6 days in a row: longest streak since January.

"Adoption is becoming less about what frontier models can do and more about the price... the recent drop in the token index may reflect some of this shift toward cheaper models"- Citadel https://t.co/n2dQtQ7rqs pic.twitter.com/OOW2uXdedj

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 10, 2026

Prices per million tokens for Western models vs. Chinese models

Tokenmaxxing. 

I hit my usage limits on my $200/month Claude Max subscription in less than 30 minutes and up to 14% in less than a minute as the session resets using Claude Fable 5. pic.twitter.com/lertUFPCC2

— mercury (@mercury_0x) June 9, 2026

Average cost per task.

Claude Fable 5 is now available in Cursor.

It sets a new state of the art on CursorBench at 72.9%, 8 points above the previous best. pic.twitter.com/L3Wm8mSYq9

— Cursor (@cursor_ai) June 9, 2026

What X users have been creating with Claude Fable 5:

Claude 5.0 built a Chinese girl a trading bot.

skip to 0:08 look at her journal, bot easily earns your monthly salary in a couple of days.

how it works:

the bot runs mean reversion on s&p 500 and nasdaq on 15-min candles, catching the small overextensions indices make every… https://t.co/V2R3gRNXTA pic.twitter.com/iRVgo1jdYF

— AdiiX (@adiix_official) June 9, 2026

Claude 5 Fable (high)

“Make a Minecraft clone”

I’m stunned.. it made this in 20 minutes, one shot.

Multiple Biomes, day time/night time, different ores, Caves & more! pic.twitter.com/jfiGsalxvx

— Chris (@ChrissGPT) June 9, 2026

Wow Claude Fable 5 is insane!!

I just created GTA 6 in ONE prompt so i don't have to wait anymore to play it

Prompt: make gta 6

It over for game studios now. pic.twitter.com/eKSx0PRTJ2

— caso (@casoxbt) June 10, 2026

claude fable 5 /goal:
help me shoot this soccer ball faster https://t.co/8eIKp2Np3x pic.twitter.com/Iac3mvVo57

— AA (@measure_plan) June 9, 2026

Claude Fable 5, 40% of Max 5x usage.

Full Mario Kart 64 type game in 2 sentence prompt.

All decoration and character models, 4 maps, music, all three game modes, UI was done by Fable 5 in a single shot, in about 15 mins.

What the fuck.#fable #anthropic pic.twitter.com/B7mTidE84U

— Kiera (@kieradev) June 9, 2026

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 20:30

From FOMO To Oh No! Koreans Face Massive Forced Liquidations As AI Bubble Bursts

Korean retail investors’ aggressive leveraged bets on the market’s two dominant AI/Semi names - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - are now colliding with a sharp KOSPI correction, triggering the largest wave of forced stock sales in years and raising the specter of a self-reinforcing liquidation spiral.

At its peak last week, the benchmark KOSPI index  was up 100% for 2026, rivaling the Nasdaq 100 Index’s 102% surge in 1999 - right before the bubble burst...

Last week we warned, as levered bets soared to record highs... that 'the signal is clear: the cash buffer eroding while active leverage refuses to unwind'.

And the concentration was extremely clear with 'new lows' dominating even as KOSPI hit record-er and record-er highs...

Driven purely by retail momentum chasers, as foreigners were fleeing...

We specifically made the point that the rise of leveraged exchange-traded funds, designed to magnify daily moves, may further intensify a reversal.

Fast forward a week - and sprinkle in some vicious moves in the Korean index (down 17% from the highs in a week) - and those warnings have now punched Korean retail investors in the mouth.

As The Korea Times reports, South Korean investors are facing massive forced liquidations and margin loans come due.

Aggregated over the last few trading sessions, the figure approached ~300 billion won (~$197 million) - the largest such reading in recent memory.

The ratio of forced sales to outstanding margin loans hit 9.1% on that Friday, the highest of the year.

Source

These sales occur mechanically: investors who borrowed from brokerages (typically putting up 30–40% equity) must settle by T+2.

When equity falls below maintenance levels, brokerages automatically sell at the opening call auction - often locking in losses and adding downward pressure that can trigger further margin calls.

“The biggest risk during a sharp market decline is not the drop in prices itself, but forced liquidation,” said Kim Seok-hwan, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities.

“Investors are advised to reduce leverage, hold more cash and focus on high-quality assets.”

And it is far from over as margin lending balances remain near record highs.

According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, outstanding margin loans climbed to a record 38 trillion won on May 29. Although the balance eased to 37.8 trillion won as of Monday, it remained at an elevated level.

“It is estimated that much of the recently increased margin financing entered the market when KOSPI was trading in the 8,200-8,400 range,” said Noh Dong-gil, an analyst at Shinhan Securities.

“Investors often begin trimming positions voluntarily once losses approach 15 percent, while the risk of forced selling rises significantly around the 20 percent loss level.”

This unwind is the direct consequence of retail investors aggressively piling into Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix using both traditional margin debt and the new wave of single-stock leveraged ETFs launched in late May 2026.

What began as a retail-driven, leverage-fueled melt-up concentrated in two AI stocks is transitioning into a classic de-leveraging event.

The new single-stock 2x ETFs and record margin debt have amplified both the upside and now the downside.

Foreign outflows have provided the fundamental counter-pressure, while mechanical forced sales are adding the accelerant.

Retail leverage that felt like genius in May is now being stress-tested in real time - with the Korean market’s extreme concentration making the moves especially violent.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 19:40

CBP Chief Says Border Wall Should Be Finished By Late 2027

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. southern border wall will be completed by the end of next year, said U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Rodney Scott at an event on Tuesday.

Scott told an audience in Washington that the “primary border wall ... will be done by the end of 2027,” adding that there are a “couple of gaps.” The wall will stretch from San Diego to Texas near the Gulf of Mexico.

“The only places we’re not building a border wall is places where we’ve made a conscious decision that we don’t need it,” Scott said at the Center for Immigration Studies conference, adding that Big Bend National Park is an example of a “super remote area” with “some very, very high cliffs” that preclude construction of the wall.

Other parts of the border wall, including a secondary wall and a barrier in the Rio Grande, will be complete by July or August 2028, Scott said. The barrier will also be backed by electronic surveillance and other systems, he added.

The border wall, which was a campaign promise made by President Donald Trump during his 2016 presidential campaign, is designed to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the United States.

But Scott said the wall isn’t enough to completely stop either one. Drug traffickers and human smugglers are using tunnels to find workarounds, he said.

“That is their business model, and drones definitely make it easier,” he said, adding, “They’re also smuggling narcotics across with drones.”

On the first day of his second term in January 2025, Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of War and Department of Homeland Security secretaries to “take all appropriate action to deploy and construct temporary and permanent physical barriers to ensure complete operational control of the southern border.” The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, approved by Congress in July 2025, included $46.5 billion for border wall construction.

Apprehensions of people crossing the border illegally in the Big Bend Sector fell 74 percent in fiscal 2025 compared with fiscal 2023, according to the CBP. Autonomous surveillance towers have also significantly reduced traffic, according to the agency.

Last month, the CBP released data marking a year of zero releases at the southern border, and apprehensions of illegal immigrants have dropped to their lowest levels in more than three decades.

The agency said that the Border Patrol recorded 8,943 apprehensions along the southwest border in April, a 94 percent decline from the monthly average under the Biden administration and 96 percent below the peak in December 2023.

Rodney Scott, commissioner for Customs and Border Protection, testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on April 16, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“The U.S. Border Patrol released zero illegal aliens into our country again this month, unlike April 2024, when more than 68,000 were released under President [Joe] Biden,” Scott said in a statement in May.

The Trump administration has also prioritized deporting illegal immigrants.

The White House’s border czar, Tom Homan, said in an interview in May that the administration is moving to increase deportations and that around 800,000 illegal aliens have been removed from the country since Trump took office again.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 19:15

Goldman Flags Tightening Power Grid In Texas Amid Rapid Data Center Growth

Goldman shared some of their thoughts on the tightening of power markets as the decade comes to a close. ERCOT’s own Preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast now sees baseline peak-summer demand (excluding most medium and large loads) growing at a 5.2% average annual rate from 2026 through 2030. This is already well above the 3.4% realized average of 2022-2025. 

Layer in the medium- and large-scale additions, overwhelmingly data centers plus crypto and industrial electrification, and the forecast explodes to 31% average annual peak-summer growth.

Put that in national context and Texas alone would account for 39% of total U.S. peak-summer power demand by 2030, up from just 11% last year, assuming the rest of the country continues its slower recent trajectory. 

Goldman analysts flag a 200 GW queue of large-load applications sitting with the grid operator. Even if only 10% of that queue ultimately energizes, it would still lift the region’s demand growth rate above 9% against an expected 6% annual increase in effective generation capacity over the same window. That math points to a high probability of a critically tight market unless supply-side responses accelerate sharply in the next few years.

A quick look at Goldman's recent nuclear report for last month shows the large grid-scale reactor industry is still sleeping in the US…

Earlier we highlighted ERCOT’s disclosure that multiple clusters of proposed hyperscale loads and crypto facilities failed voltage ride-through testing. Four of those groups alone could shed more than 5,000 MW (Boston-sized chunks of demand) during routine transmission disturbances. That is the demand-side mirror of the Spain blackout dynamics we referenced, where rapid disconnections and inadequate reactive power support turned a manageable event into a cascading failure.

ERCOT is not alone in upgrading its outlook. PJM lifted its 10-year average annual peak-summer demand growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.6% earlier this year. MISO raised its 20-year view from 1.6% to 2% in April, more than doubling its realized 2022-2025 average of 0.8%. 

These changes reflect the same AI-driven commercial load surge now visible in the data. Goldman shows the U.S. commercial sector posting the strongest year-over-year power demand growth in January-February at +1.8%, while industrial and residential lagged. Nationally, data-center capacity additions are accelerating, with Texas, Virginia, Arizona, Ohio, Indiana, and Georgia leading the way on a year-over-year basis.

On the generation side, the picture is mixed. Solar continues its seasonal ramp with solid year-over-year capacity additions. 

Natural gas-fired output has been responsive. But nuclear has been weaker due to maintenance outages, hydro is suffering from drought across more than half the country, and coal remains under pressure. 

Construction employment tied to data-center and utility work is rising sharply, which is welcome, but employment is not the same as energized megawatts and reinforced lines.

We noted flags starting to pop up regarding the lack of construction industry manpower back in October…

And then there is the issue of where the US gets 300,000 engineers to build all this missing power supply by 2030 https://t.co/a18crhqZ4v pic.twitter.com/tinW8SHDwM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2025

And we also noted other analysts starting to recognize the same body count issue – the lack of engineers and other skilled laborers to build the energy generating side of the grid. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 18:50

The Potemkin Ballot

Authored by Spyridon Andrews via American Greatness,

The only completely predictable result of an election in a Western democracy is election fraud.

Fraud is so fundamental to Western democracies that it is fair to say that democracies exist in name only. In fact, elections have become so essential to illegitimate power that they are almost the surest path to subvert the will of the people. Potemkin elections are essential ways for the ruling class to mask that they are truly in control. The notion of the divine right, or right of the aristocracy to rule, died a relatively quick death after the Renaissance. And the 14th-century political Renaissance led by figures such as Leonardo Bruni, the brilliant Renaissance historian who later became chancellor of Florence, brought back the notion of the Roman Republic to the modern era. Florence reinvented free elections of the citizenry; however, the notion of citizenry was limited compared to today.

Palazzo Vecchio, the town hall of Florence, which sits on the Piazza della Signoria.

Uniquely, Florence had no king, duke, or hereditary monarch during much of the Renaissance. Power was vested in the city’s executive governing council, or the signoria. The Council was led by a chief magistrate, known as the Gonfaloniere di Giustizia or justice. There were various legislative and advisory councils, as well as guilds that represented merchants, banks, craftsmen, and professionals.

In order to avoid “corruption,” the Florentines used the lottery system. When a government position opened, names were drawn from bags. As a further precaution, terms were short, only two months, and rotations were constant.

Cosimo the Elder or “Father of the Fatherland.” Posthumous portrait attributed to unknown 16th-century Florentine workshop artists.

Enter the Medici. It was Cosimo de’ Medici who transformed the system into the dynasty that is famous in history. The Medici controlled the largest banking network in Europe and, consequently, extended credit to many of the continent’s most powerful families. The success of a merchant’s business relied upon loans or assistance from the Medici. As a result, patronage opportunities were abundant, and the Medici had a ready-made army of supporters. They also had the support of the intelligentsia through their patronage of literature and the arts. There was no need for Cosimo to be elected to office or even to be seen all that much.

This, however, did not prevent the Medici from influencing electoral outcomes in their favor. Although appointments were decided by lot, there was an art to ensuring that the correct names got dropped into the lottery in the first place. Committees controlled by the Medici determined which citizens were eligible to be elected to posts. So, although a genuine lottery was held, the candidate pool was not so genuine. Florence, on the surface, held free elections and had councils, debates, and all the symbolism of republicanism. But it was controlled by the family who controlled the money supply.

If this sounds familiar, this is because the Medici’s influence extended well beyond their patronage of literature and the arts. During the reign of Louis XIII in France, Cardinal Richelieu never wore a crown. Nevertheless, he controlled foreign policy, court appointments, political alliances, and intelligence networks.

William “Boss Tweed” (1823–78)

In America in the 19th and 20th centuries, the New York machine at Tammany Hall ran the show. The outward constitutional order remained in place, while the political bosses determined the candidates who could run, who received the patronage jobs, and who was awarded the political contracts. While Boss Tweed was an important part of the machine while he was alive, the machine outlived him, and the candidates became fungible.

The same type of arrangement was in place in Chicago from the time of Mike McDonald in the late 19th century all the way to the Daleys in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. McDonald and his political machine financed businesses and candidates, controlled networks, and made or broke political careers. McDonald was succeeded by the duo of Michael “Hinky Dink” Kenna and John Coughlin, an unlikely pair of Irish mobsters who ran the gambling houses and brothels, owned the police, and made sure that their business interests were fully accommodated by the mayors they owned. While neither Boss Tweed nor Mike McDonald were above stuffing ballot boxes or breaking a few legs to ensure the appropriate result, those were matters that only needed to be resorted to in dire emergencies.

The Old Federal Building, where Washington took the First Presidential Oath of Office in 1789.

The modern-day Rothschilds are perhaps less interesting as a secret cabal than as the outrageously wealthy banking family that can make or break global banks and governments. In the late 18th century, Mayer Amschel Rothschild placed his five sons in the European financial centers of London, Frankfurt, Paris, Vienna, and Naples. From there they went on to finance governments, underwrite sovereign debt, fund railroads and infrastructure, and move money across borders as fast as their clients needed it. And it is indisputable that the Rothschilds were fundamental in creating the modern state of Israel—from funding settlements to funding the Israeli parliament building.

It is not simply that the wealthy classes needed additional help to grab political power, but they sure received it in the Citizens United case in 2010. A majority of conservative justices held that political speech is protected by the First Amendment and that the identity of the speaker, whether it is a corporation, union, or nonprofit, does not eliminate that protection. While that was all very noble, the Supreme Court further held that independent expenditures are different from direct campaign contributions and that the states could not limit such spending. Needless to say, political spending exploded, and Super PACs, industry associations, labor-backed organizations, and ideological advocacy groups began buying up politicians and votes like a Blue Light Special at K-Mart.

Politicians selling themselves like hookers on South Figueroa Street in L.A. is not enough these days. Donors need insurance policies for the peace of mind that their investments do not go to waste. And so, they are not above good old-fashioned voter fraud. The alleged appearance of 24,000 votes from nowhere in the Los Angeles Mayoral primary election this week is a testament to the new era of “mail-in balloting,” which is about as legitimate as a Florida time-share. It was the midnight deliveries of mail-in ballots in swing districts during the 2020 election that led to the Capitol protests on January 6, 2021—and the perception by nearly half of Americans that the election was outright stolen.

The utter ignorance of the history of election fraud in the United States is perhaps the major reason that anyone would believe that our federal elections are trustworthy. Apart from the outright purchase of votes in Congress, American history has consistently had patterns of repeat voting, padded rolls, absentee-ballot abuses, vote buying, dead voters, false or corrupted registrations, not to mention election-official complicity, patronage pressure, counting manipulation, control of election officials, and downright intimidation. Election fraud is not prosecuted as often as it should be, but it is prosecuted with regular frequency. The 1982 Illinois Election Fraud cases, combined with the Greylord investigations and indictments of federal and local judges, have clearly demonstrated the infiltration of organized crime into the courtroom. And allegations of organized crime connections between presidents such as Kennedy and Nixon have swirled for decades.

This does not account for the recent charges and countercharges regarding gerrymandering, the reluctance to impose voter ID requirements, allegations regarding dark-money pools, and “legal” lobbying, which is considered outright bribery in other countries. Chicago’s corruption runs so deep that the residents of the city just assume that’s the way it’s all supposed to work. In fact, I hear Chicagoans complain that the system ran better when there was more of a sticker price on what it cost to fix a traffic ticket, reduce a murder charge, or buy an alderman’s vote on a zoning permit.

The demands of a democratic society have equally necessitated workarounds for unsavory results that stem from the will of the people. It was not the will of the people that brought us into either of the World Wars in the 20th century—certain workarounds had to be put into place. Although the cost of life, around 27,000 Americans, was regrettable during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive during World War I, the conveniently placed Zimmerman telegram alleging a German–Mexican alliance was necessary to bring us into the war in the first place.

American Doughboys in the final year of the Great War, likely captured at the Meuse-Argonne Offensive.

Pearl Harbor was regrettable, but apparently our leaders determined that the loss of life was necessary in order to make a highly unpopular war seem necessary. Americans did not vote to intern Japanese citizens, nor did they vote to infect black soldiers with syphilis. But our politicians knew better. In the last two wars, the threat of weapons of mass destruction has led to wars that politicians wanted to fight against Iraq and Iran. And so democratic government does not just necessitate vote buying and election tampering, but also an occasional well-placed lie in order to meet the demands of governing in accordance with the desires of the moneyed interests.

A cynical interpretation might hold that extending suffrage to women and the poor was less about social justice than about creating larger, more easily mobilized voting blocs. Vast voter pools, especially ones that can be purchased through government programs, motivated by single issues or through perceived grievances brought on by other groups, are terrific tools to stay in power.

When these issues become supercharged with emotion, usually through manipulation of media sources or outright lies, they usher forth passionate armies that stand for a candidate or a political party. A much more economical way to hold a voter base together is to convince them that Neil, who coaches your son’s little league team, is a fascist because he’s a Republican, or that Ahmed, who runs the 7-11 next to the dry cleaner, is an existential threat.

One could be cynical and believe that our political class has nothing but disdain for their voters and that they are capable of literally any act to stay in power. One could even believe that because they have seemingly lied to us about everything from the reasons to go to war, the origin of a global pandemic financed by our own government, or the extent of government surveillance by the NSA, they would be capable of anything.

We could say that. But that would be undemocratic.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/10/2026 - 18:25