Hormuz Traffic At Standstill After US Ship Seizure

Confirming the Schrodinger nature of the notorious waterway, the Strait of Hormuz is now just closed even more than before Iran and the US said the vital oil channel had been reopened.

Traffic through the strait on Sunday and Monday was reduced to a trickle following a Saturday surge, after Tehran rejected a continuing US naval blockade and moved to seal the waterway again. The reduced movement underscores just how quickly hopes unraveled that cargoes could once again resume.

On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait was “completely open” for commercial shipping, while US President Donald Trump said Iran was removing sea mines from the waterway. That prompted oil prices to plunge and dozens of tankers to race toward the strait at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. But Iran quickly declared that the passage was closed again as it emerged that the US operation in place since April 13 would not be lifted.

And rejected: the two tankers taking the neutral route, Minerva Evropi and Nissos Keros, have turned around; the Sanmar Herald which appears to be taking the Iran-sanctioned Larak island route is proceeding. https://t.co/aceBI7ki0B pic.twitter.com/gmkM37iA1U

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 18, 2026

The Hormuz crisis flared again over the weekend after the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel, during a turbulent period marked by Iranian forces firing at ships and reimposing controls across the strait. The developments pushed oil and natural gas prices higher after Friday’s big declines, reflecting fears of prolonged supply constraints.

The chaotic, start-stop nature of ship traffic through the strait underscores just how difficult it will be to fully restore oil and gas flows that are vital to the global economy, where energy producers need to have visibility months in advance before restarting production.

According to Bloomberg, just two liquefied petroleum gas carriers and two oil product tankers moved through the strait in both directions on Monday. The previous day, two LPG vessels and a cruise liner sailed out of the gulf, while no inbound transits were seen.

The Gas Harmony, an LPG carrier, went dark inside the gulf on Saturday morning but reappeared off the coast of Oman on Monday, indicating that the vessel transited the strait in the interim. The Liberia-flagged ship is owned and managed by Athens-based Gas Harmony Shipping Ltd., according to maritime database Equasis.

Greek and Iranian LPG ships departed the gulf on Sunday along with the European passenger liner, not listed in the charts. Subsequent observations until Monday afternoon, London time, identified further outbound movement by an Iranian product tanker and a second LPG ship.

At least three Mediterranean Shipping Co. containerships and a MSC cruise liner, along with a handful of other passenger vessels, appeared to have exited the gulf on Saturday, hugging the Omani coastline. That was a deviation from the corridor approved by Iran during the short-lived opening of the waterway. Another MSC containership remains off-grid after it stopped signaling inside the gulf. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Six cruise ships clear Strait of Hormuz during brief reopening

A flotilla of cruise ships stranded in Gulf ports since late February has now cleared the Strait of Hormuz, taking advantage of a brief reopening of the waterway before tighter controls returned.

According to… pic.twitter.com/nvnhG4JrkW

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) April 20, 2026

Diplomatic momentum has wavered after Tehran signaled hesitation regarding a second round of talks in Pakistan, amid the ongoing American blockade of Iranian traffic and the vessel seizure.

The commercial vessels entering Hormuz with active AIS signals during the past day were confined to a narrow northern lane near the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, the route approved by Tehran.

The inbound transits on Monday included an Iranian LPG ship and a fuel tanker.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 15:20

'Wright Is Wrong': Trump Rejects Energy Secretary's Comment That Gas Prices May Not Drop Under $3 Until 2027

Pain at the pump might not ease up for American consumers until 2027, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who said on April 19 that the price of a regular gallon of gas could stay above $3 for the rest of the year.

Wright said a price of $3 per gallon of gas “could happen later this ​year, [but] that might not happen until next year” in an interview that aired on CNN’s ”State of the Union” ​program Sunday.

“But prices have ⁠likely peaked, and they'll start going down certainly with a resolution of this conflict [in Iran],” Wright predicted while speaking about how the war has impacted energy prices.

As of April 19, the average price for a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was $4.04, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

States on the West Coast and the Northeast have the highest prices, according to AAA.

Before the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against the Iranian regime on Feb. 28, the price for a regular gallon of gas in the U.S. was $2.98.

The Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook, published on April 7, predicted the average retail price for a gallon of gasoline would be $4.30 per gallon in April.

The Energy Information Administration - designed as a nonpartisan agency within Wright’s Department of Energy - estimated the retail price for an average gallon of gasoline will be $3.46 in 2027, above the $3 level he predicted on CNN.

As the chart above shows, for pump prices to fall back to $3 a gallon, we would need to see crude oil prices back around $60 a barrel - a long way down given the disruptions from the Iran War are likely to ripple through the supply chain for months.

Finally, The Hill's White House correspondent, Julia Manchester, reports that President Trump just told her over the phone that he disagrees with Energy Secretary Wright's assessment that gas prices may not drop until next year. 

"No, I think he's wrong on that. Totally wrong," Trump said, adding that gas prices will drop "as soon as this ends."

With the Midterms looming ever closer, Trump better hope he's right and Wright is wrong.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 14:40

Market Lesson: Why Panic Is A Costly Mistake

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The Iran shock erased 18% from valuations and fully recovered in two weeks. Investors who panicked missed it all. Here’s what the market lesson is about: risk management, behavior, and what to do with your portfolio right now.

The stock market selloff between February 28 and April 14 produced one of the more instructive market lessons in recent memory. It isn’t because of what the market did, but because of what investors did in response. By April 2nd, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed bearish sentiment at 51.4%, the highest reading in years, well above the historical average of 31%. Put option volume surged, and the financial media ran daily coverage of worst-case oil scenarios, recession projections, and S&P 500 targets as low as 3,800.

However, when you have that combination of bearishness, as we discussed in 5-Consecutive Weekly Declines, markets tend to perform better.

What was surprising was that the S&P 500 recovered completely in two weeks and is now setting all-time highs.

That sequence is not a reason to relax, but it is a valuable market lesson. It is also a good reason to examine what happened to investors who panicked, why the pattern repeats with such regularity, and, most importantly, what a well-constructed portfolio actually looks like when the next stock market selloff arrives. Because it will arrive. The only uncertainty is the catalyst.

The Drill & The Failure

Every major market shock is a test, a market lesson to be learned from. Not a test of whether your thesis was right, or whether you picked the right stocks. A test of whether your portfolio was built to hold under pressure, and whether your instincts are an asset or a liability when it counts.

The Iran conflict delivered a real economic shock. U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran’s nuclear facilities. Tehran retaliated against Gulf energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows daily, ground to a halt. Brent crude surged from $61 at year-end to over $114 a barrel, and that spike raised inflation expectations, hammered small caps, and sent Asian equity markets into a tailspin as energy costs threatened to consume the profit margins underpinning the region’s AI and manufacturing boom.

Then, at what seemed to be the darkest moment, the market repriced all of that in two weeks. Valuations declined roughly 18% as investors adjusted for the expected impact of higher oil prices on earnings and consumer spending. That repricing was rational, but the panic layered on top of it was not. In the middle of the selloff, predictions of a structural bear market were everywhere, but none of them materialized.

That pattern of maximum fear at the exact moment prices are lowest, followed by regret as they recover, is a market lesson that repeats itself regularly. The investors who liquidated near the recent lows, as sentiment turned negative, locked in losses. But two weeks later, they face an even more difficult decision: do I reenter at prices 10% higher than the ones I sold at? Most don’t. That gap between market returns and the average investor’s actual earnings is the most expensive line item in the typical portfolio.

What Risk Is, And Isn’t

The word “risk” gets used so loosely in financial media that it has lost most of its meaning. A falling stock price isn’t the definition of “risk.” Neither is a scary headline. Volatility isn’t risk either; it’s the price of admission for participating in markets over time.

As I’ve said previously, if you aren’t willing to watch your portfolio decline 10% to 15% without doing something rash, you aren’t really an investor; you are a speculator who happens to be holding stocks.

Risk, defined precisely, is the probability of a permanent impairment of capital. Not temporary losses, or a 10% drawdown that reverses in two weeks. Risk is the permanent impairment of capital, resulting in significantly diminished future outcomes. The distinction is enormous, separating investors who compound wealth over decades from those who don’t.

When the S&P 500 dropped during the Iran shock, the vast majority of that decline reflected a temporary repricing of earnings expectations under elevated oil prices. The underlying companies, their cash flows, their competitive advantages, and their earnings power didn’t change materially. The price changed, but the value didn’t. Investors who sold during that repricing didn’t escape risk; they converted a temporary paper loss into a realized one and then forfeited the recovery.

The market lesson is in the chart. Fear peaked at the moment prices were most attractive. By the time the market had recovered and all-time highs were being printed, fear had nearly returned to historical norms. The investors who acted on that peak in fear did exactly the wrong thing at exactly the wrong moment. The investors who recognized it as a contrarian signal, or who simply had the discipline to do nothing, participated in the full recovery.

The Behavior Gap: The Most Expensive Cost

Dalbar Inc. has published an annual study for over 30 years, measuring the difference between the return delivered by the stock market and the return actually earned by the average equity investor. The gap, which Dalbar calls the “behavior gap,” has consistently shown that the average investor earns two to three percentage points less per year than the indices they’re invested in. That shortfall isn’t explained by fees or bad stock selection. It’s explained entirely by timing decisions: buying after rallies and selling during selloffs.

Over 30 years, a two-percentage-point annual shortfall compounds into a staggering wealth gap. A $500,000 portfolio growing at 8% a year becomes roughly $5 million. The same portfolio growing at 6%, because the investor panicked during selloffs and missed recoveries, becomes roughly $2.9 million. That $2.1 million gap is the price of panic. And the investor who sold near the April 2nd sentiment extreme has already paid a portion of it.

After every major market shock, the “this time is different” argument gains traction. The Iran conflict gave that argument real support. It was a genuine exogenous shock with measurable economic consequences, not a technical correction or manufactured volatility. But the historical record on recovery from sharp, shock-driven selloffs is remarkably consistent, and favors the patient investor over the reactive one.

Since 1950, there have been 20 instances in which the S&P 500 rose more than 10% in a 10-day period, the kind of snapback recovery we saw in April. Over the following 12 months, the index was higher in 17 of those 20 cases, with an average gain of 19%. Nasdaq win streaks of comparable magnitude resolved higher 100% of the time over 12 months, with average gains near 26%. Those numbers don’t guarantee another selloff isn’t coming. That means the investors best positioned to capture those forward returns are the ones who stayed disciplined through the downturn. They rebalanced into weakness, and held enough cash to redeploy rather than liquidate.

Consider 2022. The Fed’s tightening cycle produced a 9-month bear market that erased ~25% from the S&P 500. The investors who sold in October 2022, when sentiment was just as dark as it was in early April 2026, missed a recovery that added nearly 60% over the next two years. The pattern repeats because human psychology repeats. The catalyst changes. The behavior doesn’t.

Build a Shock-Resistant Portfolio

Building a portfolio that survives market selloffs without requiring heroic decision-making isn’t complicated. It’s only unpopular because it involves accepting modest underperformance during the easy, low-volatility periods in exchange for not being the person who liquidates at the bottom during the hard ones.

The UBS analysis of the Iran shock made a point worth internalizing. The assets that acted as refuges during 2025’s tariff-driven selloff, such as gold, the Japanese yen, and Treasuries, provided meaningfully less protection this year. The assets that performed well in 2026, particularly the trade-weighted dollar, did little to offset losses during last year’s episode. In other words, building a portfolio to hedge against the last crisis is a losing strategy. The next one will look different.

The more durable approach focuses not on predicting which hedge will work, but on maintaining portfolio construction that allows you to hold through volatility without being forced to sell. That means genuine diversification across asset classes and geographies. It means a real cash buffer that functions as optionality. It also means rebalancing mechanically rather than emotionally, adding exposure when prices are low and trimming when they’ve run ahead of value.

The Iran conflict reframed a question many investors had avoided asking: Were they genuinely diversified? Investors with heavy commodity-linked exposure looked prescient during the decline. But that quickly fell out of favor as megacap technology stocks took center stage during the recovery. Having diversification means you had positions that performed during both the decline and the rally. Concentrated, one-sided portfolios rarely perform well over the long term.

Here are seven portfolio actions to think about today.

The six weeks between late February and mid-April gave every investor a real-world market lesson. That lesson was in both portfolio construction and behavioral discipline. It wasn’t about Iran, oil prices, or the Strait of Hormuz. The lesson was whether your portfolio was built to withstand a genuine shock. And whether you know the difference between a temporary price decline and a permanent impairment of value.

Those who held, rebalanced, and redeployed cash came out ahead. Those who sold near the lows are now deciding what to do with prices ~10% higher. Most won’t. That’s the behavior gap in real time, and it compounds across every market cycle over an investing lifetime.

After 30 years of watching this pattern repeat, I can tell you with confidence that no amount of market forecasting substitutes for a sound process. The S&P 500 is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings, the ten-year Treasury yield is near 4.3%, and the geopolitical situation is improving, or at least markets are pricing it that way. What comes next is unknowable. What you do with your portfolio in the meantime is entirely within your control.

That’s always been the real market lesson. The Iran shock just delivered it again, free of charge and clearly labeled.

What you do with it is up to you.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 14:20

Supply Chain What? The NSA Is Using Anthropic's Mythos According To Report

Two months after the Department of War declared Anthropic a "supply chain risk" and moved to several all ties with the AI wunderkind, the National Security Agency (NSA), which falls under DoW, is using it according to Axios. 

According to the report, the nation's top surveillance agency is using Mythos Preview - Anthropic's most powerful model to date. It is unclear how the NSA is currently using Mythos, however other organizations are using it primarily to scan their own environments for exploitable security vulnerabilities. The company has restricted access to Mythos to around 40 organizations - as the company says the model's offensive cyber capabilities are too dangerous for wider release. Axios notes further;

• Anthropic only announced 12 of those organizations. One source said the NSA was among the unnamed agencies with access.
   
• The NSA's counterparts in the U.K. have said they have access to the model through the country's AI Security Institute.

On Friday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei met White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss deploying Mythos within the government, as well as Anthropic's wider plans and security practices. 

As we noted late last week, the White House has directed federal agencies to begin using Mythos. So the Pentagon, er, Department of War, has egg (or an egg-like substance) on their face - after Anthropic demanded oversight over its use in military operations and domestic surveillance.

From "Supply-Chain Risk" to Strategic Asset

The government’s relationship with Anthropic had been icy for months. As we noted in February, the Pentagon threatened to blacklist the company as a “supply-chain risk” after Anthropic refused to strip certain ethical guardrails from its models for military use. That standoff escalated in March when Anthropic sued the Pentagon over the designation, as detailed in ZeroHedge’s coverage of the lawsuit.

That said, the Pentagon’s “supply-chain risk” label was always narrow in scope: it was a DoD-specific action triggered by the company’s refusal to remove certain ethical guardrails from its models for unrestricted military and offensive-use applications. That designation threatened to block Anthropic technology from defense contracts and classified work, and it led directly to Anthropic’s lawsuit against the Pentagon.

Today’s OMB memo changes almost nothing on paper for that designation. The Pentagon has not withdrawn it, the lawsuit is still active, and DoD contractors remain restricted from using Claude models (including Mythos) in offensive or surveillance contexts.

Just days ago, the U.S. Treasury was rushing to gain access to Mythos after internal warnings that the model could “hack every major system.” Senior Treasury and Federal Reserve officials had summoned CEOs of the nation’s largest banks to Washington, warning them that the financial system’s exposure to AI-powered attacks had become existential. Behind closed doors, federal agencies - including the Commerce Department’s Center for AI Standards and Innovation - had already begun quiet red-teaming of Mythos. Anthropic co-founder and president Daniela Amodei confirmed the company had briefed the administration early, telling reporters simply: “The government has to know about this stuff.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 14:00

CBP To Begin First Phase Of Tariff Refunds Following Supreme Court Ruling

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is set to begin the first phase of its refund process for certain tariffs on April 20, following a ruling by the Supreme Court in February.

CBP will deploy the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) through its Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) system, which would allow businesses to seek refunds for tariffs they paid that were imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Supreme Court ruled on Feb. 20 that the IEEPA does not clearly authorize the president to impose tariffs.

The agency said the CAPE will be implemented in phases, with the first phase starting at 8 a.m. ET on April 20 and covering “certain unliquidated entries and certain entries within 80 days of liquidation.”

The system is designed to “consolidate refunds of IEEPA duties including interest rather than processing refunds on an entry-by-entry basis,” according to CBP.

It stated that importers and licensed customs brokers are required to set up an account on the ACE portal, submit bank account details, and file declarations for imports on which tariffs were paid.

“Importers and authorized brokers should anticipate that valid IEEPA refunds will generally be issued within 60–90 days following acceptance of the CAPE declaration, unless a compliance concern requires further CBP review, ” the agency stated on its website.

“However, certain scenarios, such as entries that are extended, suspended or under review, and warehouse entries, will maintain their liquidation status with validated refunds issued at liquidation.”

In a court filing dated April 14, CBP Executive Director of Trade Programs Brandon Lord said the agency was dealing with “an unprecedented volume of refunds,” with more than 330,000 importers filing about 53 million entries in which they deposited or paid tariffs imposed pursuant to IEEPA as of March 4, which amounted to $166 billion.

“[The CBP’s] existing administrative procedures and technology are not well suited to a task of this scale and will require manual work that will prevent personnel from fully carrying out the agency’s trade enforcement mission,” Lord said, adding that CBP was working to have its ACE functionality ready for use within 45 days.

The Trump administration has been looking at alternative legal avenues after the Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariff framework.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Feb. 20 that his office would launch new investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering most major trading partners.

The probe intends to counter “unjustifiable, unreasonable, discriminatory, and burdensome acts, policies, and practices,” Greer said. Further tariffs may be applied if unfair practices are found, he added.

The new trade investigations will cover various areas, including industrial excess capacity, forced labor, pharmaceutical pricing practices, discrimination against U.S. technology companies and digital goods and services, digital services taxes, and ocean pollution.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 13:40

Giant Data Center Developer Fermi Crashes 22% After CEO, CFO Abruptly Quit

Last November, we warned that storms clouds were gathering over the torrid, and in some cases chaotic, rollout of US data centers, after Fermi's massive 11 GW energy and data center project in Texas, called Project Matador, which the company has envisioned to be the world's largest AI data center and energy campus in the Texas Panhandle, near Amarillo, was struggling to close the deal with its first major data center tenant (and since Fermi is set up as REIT that allocates income from tenants to shareholders, the delay may raise doubts about attracting other potential money-generating tenants, in a toxic feedback loop).

Fermi's Project Matador - The President Donald J. Trump Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus.

Fast forward 6 months, and the Fermi story has gone from bad to catastrophic, after the developer of nuclear power for AI data centers, slumped following the sudden departure of co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Toby Neugebauer and the company’s chief financial officer.

The exit of Neugebauer was the definition of a Friday night bomb: it was disclosed in a filing late Friday after the close of trading. Fermi held a conference call over the weekend for analysts, during which it said the board had been considering the change in management for at least three months, according to a research note from Evercore ISI.

On Monday, Fermi issued a statement revealing that Miles Everson resigned as CFO, and that it’s planning a new corporate headquarters in Dallas. Fermi said it has created a “interim office of the CEO,” comprising Jacobo Ortiz Blanes and Anna Bofa, both company executives who will now serve as co-presidents, while it searches for Neugebauer’s replacement. Neugebauer, a major shareholder in the company, will remain on the board. Everson was elected to the board, Fermi said.

As we reported in late 2025, Fermi - which has been developing a massive AI campus in Texas that it expects to initially power with natural gas and eventually plans to add as many as four nuclear reactors - has been dogged by challenges in recent months, including the loss of a key anchor tenant for the site. 

The change at the top of the company “indicates that there was friction between customers and Neugebauer, and negotiations could be simpler going forward,” Stifel Nicolaus analyst Stephen Gengaro said in a note.

For the company's sake, he better be right: the company has so far failed to line up tenants for its complex; and without tenants there is no company (not to mention, what it means for the broader AI space where euphoria is absolutely oozing everywhere). Fermi said in December that a potential user had terminated a $150 million deal.

FRMI shares fell as much as 22% Monday, the most intraday since March 30 when the company said on an earnings conference call that it still hadn’t signed up customers for the campus, which it’s calling Project Matador. Fermi has slumped 69% since its initial public offering last year, giving it a market value of $4.1 billion.

“Fermi’s ability to ink a contract from hyperscalers who are scrambling to secure scarce available power has been perplexing,” Gengaro wrote in the research note. “Some potential customers could be taking a ‘prove-it-to-me’ approach to Fermi’s power campus.”

Some analysts said the management overhaul, despite triggering a stock drop, may ultimately be a positive for Fermi.

“Overall, we view this transition as changing the ‘tone at the top,’ but maintaining the same tenacity and vigor the industry has seen from an operational perspective,” Evercore analysts led by Nicholas Amicucci wrote in their note.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 13:20

Anti-ICE Protestors Face Trial After Judge Denies Dismissal Of Federal Charges

Authored by  Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Three defendants who took part in an anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) protest last year are headed to federal trial on May 18 after a judge denied their motions to dismiss the case.

The defendants were part of a June 2025 protest near an ICE facility in Spokane, Washington, where they allegedly tried to block and damage law enforcement vehicles in response to the detainment of two Venezuelan men.

The protest against the Trump administration’s immigration agenda coincided with demonstrations in Seattle, Portland, and other major cities.

Just the News reports that the three defendants are part of a group of nine protestors who were arrested and later indicted by the Trump administration on federal conspiracy charges.

Six of the defendants took plea deals, including former Spokane City Council president Ben Stuckart, but the remaining three protestors, Jac Archer, Justice Forral, and Bajun Malvalwalla, chose to file a motion to dismiss their charges as protected free speech.

Malvawalla, a US Army veteran, has alleged that he was assaulted by federal agents during his arrest.

Attorneys for the defendants argued that their clients’ actions were constitutionally protected and challenged the indictment’s sufficiency.

The Dept. of Justice (DOJ) called the motion “meritless” and argued that the demonstration went beyond a constitutionally protected protest, alleging that the defendants blocked a transport van from leaving the federal facility, deflated its tires, and piled objects in front of the exits to stop the agents.​

According to Just the News, a pretrial conference is scheduled on May 5 and the court will also consider motions that day by acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche seeking to exclude certain defense arguments and evidence at trial.

Blanche specifically wants the court to exclude arguments about whether the demonstration was a constitutionally protected protest, and references to other major immigration-related protests.

He also is asking the court to reject claims of political influence, including former acting US Attorney Richard Baker, who resigned days before the indictment, a well as arguments that two Venezuelan immigrants whose transport sparked the protest were here legally.

Liz Moore with the Peace and Justice Action League of Spokane is calling on residents of Spokane “To make sure that immigrant neighbors and loved ones in our community are not isolated and targeted and they experience support.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 13:00

Chicago Man Sentenced To 25 Years For Conspiring With ISIS

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Ashraf Al Safoo from Chicago has been sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for conspiring to provide material support to ISIS, which involved recruiting members into the terror group and encouraging attacks on its enemies.

Al Safoo, 41, was a leader of online organization Khattab Media Foundation, which pledged allegiance to ISIS, the Department of Justice (DOJ) said in an April 17 press release. The foundation created and spread threats and ISIS propaganda online, with Al Safoo and other members posting pro-ISIS articles, videos, infographics, and essays in coordination with the terrorist outfit.

Most of the propaganda spread by Khattab promoted violent jihad on behalf of ISIS.

The organization’s posts celebrated mass shootings and terror attacks in the United States and encouraged people to engage in “lone wolf” attacks in Western nations.

In one post, Al Safoo asked Khattab members to “cause confusion and spread terror within the hearts of those who disbelieved,” according to the DOJ press release.

In another post, Al Safoo wrote, “Work hard, brothers, edit the issue into short clips, take the pictures out of it and publish the efforts of your brothers in the pages of the apostates. Participate in the war, and spread terror, the [Islamic] State does not want you to watch it only, rather, it incites you, and if you are unable to, use it to incite others.”

Al Safoo immigrated to the United States in 2008 and was naturalized in 2013. In 2018, he was arrested and has since been in federal custody.

A bench trial was conducted last year, after which U.S. District Judge John Robert Blakey found Al Safoo guilty of various charges.

On April 16, Blakey imposed a 25-year prison term for Al Safoo, followed by 10 years of court-supervised release.

The State Department designated ISIS’s predecessor group, al-Qaeda in Iraq, as a foreign terrorist organization in December 2004 under the George W. Bush administration. When ISIS was formed in 2013, the designation carried over.

Over the past several months, multiple individuals have been detained for their support of ISIS.

In December 2025, a Texas man alleged to be an ISIS sympathizer was charged with an international terrorism offense. The man allegedly provided funding and bomb making equipment to people he believed were acting on behalf of ISIS.

Earlier in November, a dual American Albanian national was arrested and charged in New York for allegedly providing support to ISIS and distributing instructions for homemade bombs.

During a testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security on Dec. 11, Michael Glasheen, operations director at the FBI, highlighted how ISIS continues to pose a threat to American interests, both domestically and abroad.

The terror outfit is able to “direct, enable, and inspire attacks through their successful use of social media and messaging applications to attract individuals. ISIS seeks direct confrontation with the United States, and almost certainly would exploit any opportunity to attack the U.S. or Western interests,” Glasheen said.

Like other foreign terrorist organizations, he said, “ISIS advocates for lone-offender attacks in the U.S. and Western countries via videos and other English-language propaganda that have specifically advocated for attacks against civilians, the military, law enforcement, and intelligence community personnel.”

The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment report from the Defense Intelligence Agency said that ISIS and al-Qaeda have implemented a decentralized plotting approach toward Western nations.

Story continues below advertisement

Both groups are referencing Israel’s operations in Gaza to generate revenue, hire new members, and inspire attacks against U.S., Jewish, Israeli, and European interests internationally.

“The groups are also seeking to improve their weapons capabilities, including with commercial technologies such as UAVs and artificial intelligence,” the report said, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles.

In December, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had initiated Operation Hawkeye Strike in Syria following an attack that killed two Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter.

CENTCOM said in a Feb. 14 update that since the launch of Operation Hawkeye Strike, “more than 50 ISIS terrorists have been killed or captured and over 100 ISIS infrastructure targets have been struck with hundreds of precision munitions during two months of targeted operations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 12:32

'Highly Unlikely' US Will Extend Iran Ceasefire, 'Lots Of Bombs Will Go Off' If No Deal: Trump Summary

• Trump says 'highly unlikely' will extend ceasefire if deal not signed in Pakistan.

• President Pezeshkian cites "historical distrust" and states on X: "they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."

• Vance intends to depart Tuesday to Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join - Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid. Trump warns "nobody's playing games" & "lots of bombs will go off" if no deal (PBS)

• Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway."

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 28% · No 72%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

NYT: Iranians Making Plans to be in Pakistan 

The NYT now says the Iranians are soon expected in Pakistan, despite that for the past 12-hours they issued denials that they are ready and willing to enter a second round of talks.

"An Iranian delegation is making plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for negotiations with the United States, according to two senior Iranian officials familiar with the plans. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential political and military figure leading the talks," the publication writes.

Yet, talk about of Tehran is still firm and tough, signaling the two sides are in reality far away from agreeing on anything, particularly the nuclear issue. While Iranian President Pezeshkian has newly stated that "honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue" - it remains there is "historical distrust". He has stated on X: "they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."

An afternoon very long Truth Truth Social, claiming that Trump won't let Democrats rush US into making a deal with Iran. Also says the new deal will be far better than the Obama-era JCPOA.

And he followed soon after with:

Trump: 'Highly Unlikely' He Extends Ceasefire

Lots of contradictory messaging this morning from Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad. Trump has said he will note open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal is signed (as both sides inside they in effect control the waterway).

Trump has also asserted that it remains 'highly unlikely' that he extends the ceasefire with Iran, at a moment Tasnim reports that "Iran's decision not to participate in the negotiations has not changed until this moment."

'Lots of Bombs Will Go Off' If Ceasefire Ends With No Deal: Trump

President Trump says bombs will go off if the ceasefire expires (set to end by Wed April 22), PBS reports. But he also said he doesn't know if Iran is doing the next round of talks but says it is fine if Iran is not at the Pakistan talks. So who does Washington, led by VP Vance's team, plan to talk to... itself? Or it might just plan to keep sending messages to the Pakistanis. The US could also be seeking to 'demonstrate' that the Iranians have simply refused negotiations, and so this will 'justify' bombs away again. Here are the latest Monday statements from Trump given to PBS:

• If no deal "then lots of bombs start going off."
• Nuclear weapons will be discussed with Iran at the talks.
• "No nuclear weapons. Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Very simple."
• "...we're not negotiating anything other than the fact that they will not have a nuclear weapon"
• On the remarks from Secretary Wright that gas may not go below USD 3 until late-2026 or early-2027, Trump says: "I disagree with him totally. I think it'll come roaring down if it ends. If we end it, if Iran does what they should do, it will come roaring down."

His latest Monday morning Truth Social post, which appears very on the defensive:

Fresh Pentagon data indicates the US blockade has thus far directed 27 vessels to turn back.

Contradictory Reports of Vance Travel

So it seems the second round of talks are actually on, after several recent contradictory headlines concerning Tehran's intent to send a team. As of Monday morning the Iranians have been signaling the cold shoulder, even as Pakistani officials quietly leak that their arrival is expected.

The NY Post freshly reports: "Vice President JD Vance and the US delegation to the peace talks here with Iran are en route to Pakistan and expected to land within hours, President Trump on Monday told The Post — adding that he was willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if a breakthrough is reached." However, CNN is saying he has not actually departed yet, and may not till Tuesday, as the talks are reportedly being planned for Wednesday.

"We’re supposed to have the talks," Trump said in an interview when asked whether talks or still happening of if they are falling apart. He added: "So I would assume at this point nobody's playing games." According to more:

The president confirmed that a high-level US delegation — including Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner — is already en route to Islamabad for the next round of negotiations.

“They’re heading over now,” Trump said shortly after 9 a.m. EST. “They’ll be there tonight, [Islamabad] time.”

NBC notes that, "Further complicating the picture, different Iranian leaders are sending contradictory messages. The IRGC vowed revenge for the seizing of an Iranian cargo ship yesterday, even as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to emphasize diplomacy."

Shipping Traffic Halt Latest

Al Jazeera and others have written the strait is at a virtual standstill currently, after the major Sunday incident which saw the US Navy intercept, fire upon, and board an uncooperative ship which was trying to pass the US-imposed blockade. It was an Iranian-flagged ship which was forcibly stopped in the Gulf of Oman, where some dozen US warships have been patrolling.

Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates. The same publication records that "Oil products tanker Nero, which is under UK sanctions, has left the Gulf and is sailing through the strait, according to satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax and tracking data from the Kpler platform." And: "Two other ships – a chemical tanker and a liquefied natural gas tanker – have also sailed into the Gulf through the critical waterway separately, the data showed."

Reuters: Senior Iranian official says positive efforts have been started by Pakistan to end the US blockade and ensure Iran's participation in talks.

On Monday a spokesman for Iran's military reiterated a threat to "take the necessary action against the US military" after the Sunday US interdiction. He described that that Iran's military exercised restraint over the incident, not taking immediate action, in order to protect the ship's crew, but will act "once it is ensured that the lives of the families and crew of the vessel attacked by the United States are safeguarded." Apparently the crew's family members are accompanying them aboard the vessel, the statement suggests.

⚡️ US military releases footage of “seizure of Iranian ship Touska in Strait of Hormuz” pic.twitter.com/d7qk7G5oeC

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 19, 2026

Important Xi Jinping Statement on Hormuz

China's President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.

"Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community," Xi said. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

South China Morning Post observes that it was "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28." China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.

Second Pakistan Talks Imminent? 

After the Sunday dramatic US seizure of the Iranian-flagged ship, Iran's Foreign Ministry has said the country currently no plans regarding a new round of talks, however, it also said it is reviewing the latest Washington proposal related to a second round of Pakistan-hosted talks. With that, by Monday it reasserted that the transfer of enriched uranium out of the country or into US custody has never been on the table. Tehran is insisting that it won't be transferred anywhere.

This firm stance is after President dramatically shifted his tone over the weekend from strangely and surprisingly somewhat praising Iran's leadership (with statements such as the US could work with them and possibly trust them) to once up again ramping up threats, posting "No more Mr. Nice Guy" on social media. 

Currently there are conflicting reports on whether the Iranian side will actually be there for reported possible Tuesday talks. Pakistan officials say the timing of the talks remains fluid. According to the latest via Associated Press Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation to Islamabad, citing two Pakistan officials. The officials reports "cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad."

Some confused and conflicting signaling, likely purposely so...

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei:

We have no plans for the next round of negotiations. pic.twitter.com/CFb16qt8vM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 20, 2026

The NY Times has declared that JD Vance will try again:

The vice president is scheduled to lead an American delegation back to Islamabad, Pakistan, this week for another round of in-person negotiations with Iran after failing to secure a deal just over a week ago.

Whether the talks even occur seems in dispute. Hours after President Trump announced the trip on Sunday, Iranian state media said that Tehran had not yet agreed to any such meeting. Later, Mr. Trump announced that a Naval destroyer had attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to skirt the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump has been threatening major escalation should there be no negotiated settlement, at a moment the two sides' position are very distant especially on the nuclear issue.

Zero Sum Positions on Nuclear Issue

The problem, according to University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape is the zero sum logic of it all. "In a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation," he wrote over the weekend. "This is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It is a story about zero-sum conflict, where the core issues cannot be divided, traded, or deferred without forcing one side to accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative power."

"At the center of the war is a fact that cannot be negotiated away: Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not," Pape continues. "There is no stable middle ground that satisfies both sides."

POTUS is laying out two courses of action—a negotiated settlement, or a major escalation.

There is a third option, and he should take it: recognize there is no way to force a positive outcome and simply leave.

The region is not ours to fix. President Reagan chose this path in… pic.twitter.com/5ovi05FdwE

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) April 19, 2026

And more from the analysis: "The same zero-sum logic applies—more visibly and more immediately—to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Hormuz functioned as a global commons, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That assumption is now broken. Iran has demonstrated that it can shift from disruption to conditional control, allowing passage under its terms while restricting or denying access when it chooses. The United States, in response, is attempting to preserve open navigation through blockade and interdiction. But these positions cannot be reconciled."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 11:48

Aluminum Giant Alcoa To Sell Dormant Smelter To Bitcoin-Miner NYDIG: Report

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

US aluminium giant Alcoa is reportedly nearing a deal to offload its long-idle Massena East smelter in upstate New York to Bitcoin mining firm New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).

The company is in advanced discussions and expects the transaction to close “in the middle part of this year,” CEO Bill Oplinger told Bloomberg on Friday. The site, located along the St. Lawrence River, has been inactive since 2014 after Alcoa shut it down amid rising energy costs and global competition.

Built for 24/7 heavy industrial operations, aluminum smelters come with pre-existing substations, transmission lines and high-capacity grid connections. That makes them attractive targets for Bitcoin miners and data center operators, who often spend years securing similar infrastructure approvals from scratch.

Massena East also benefits from hydropower supplied by the New York Power Authority, a key draw for energy-intensive computing firms seeking low-cost and lower-carbon power sources.

US smelters reborn as crypto, AI data centers

The potential sale comes amid a broader trend across the US, where retired industrial sites are being repurposed for digital infrastructure. Earlier this year, Century Aluminum sold its Hawesville smelter in Kentucky to TeraWulf for $200 million, with plans to convert it into a high-performance computing and AI facility rather than traditional industrial use.

TeraWulf shares are up 80% YTD. Source Bloomberg 

Meanwhile, NYDIG has been growing its footprint in Bitcoin mining infrastructure. The firm, owned by Stone Ridge, already holds a stake in Coinmint, which operates mining hardware at the same campus under a long-term lease.

Last year, Crusoe Energy also agreed to sell its Bitcoin mining business, including its digital flare mitigation operations, to NYDIG.

Bitcoin miners pivot to AI

NYDIG’s renewed push into Bitcoin mining comes as other miners are increasingly pivoting toward AI and cloud computing as shrinking margins in mining push them to diversify revenue streams.

Earleir this year, MARA Holdings acquired a 64% stake in French infrastructure company Exaion, giving the company a foothold in AI services. Other miners, including Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf and Iren, are also repurposing mining facilities into data centers, while some, such as CoreWeave, have fully transitioned into AI-focused infrastructure.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 11:45

DoJ Opens Criminal Probe Into Meatpacking Cartel As Food Stocks Slide

Shares of Tyson Foods and Smithfield Foods fell in late-morning trading in New York after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Justice Department's antitrust division has opened a criminal probe into major meatpackers.

The report follows President Trump's push for an investigation into meatpackers as supermarket beef prices remain near record highs.

Criminal antitrust cases are typically brought for alleged price-fixing, collusion, or bid-rigging. While the DoJ previously disclosed an investigation into beef companies after Trump called for action, it had not provided details on whether it was criminal.

In early November, Trump publicly stated, "I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through illicit collusion, price fixing, and price manipulation."

"We will always protect our American ranchers, and they are being blamed for what is being done by majority foreign-owned meat packers, who artificially inflate prices and jeopardize the security of our nation's food supply," Trump continued.

Beef prices at supermarkets have soared to record highs after years of drought, and elevated input prices led to the smallest U.S. herd in a generation. Trump's tariffs on Brazil, a major beef exporter, have also curbed imports.

Also, last year, Trump suggested the U.S. would buy Argentine beef to increase domestic supplies and curb higher prices for Americans. This, in turn, angered U.S. cattle ranchers.

Shares of top publicly traded meatpackers, including Tyson Foods and Smithfield Foods, fell after the WSJ report hit.

Tyson Foods

Smithfield Foods

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has pointed out that "Four meat packers control 85 percent of the meat processed in the U.S."

Meanwhile, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and 12 other senators have proposed legislation that would force the nation's largest meatpackers to break up their operations across beef, pork, and poultry.

Related:

• The Problem Of The Meatpackers

• Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting

The DOJ's criminal investigation into beef companies comes as the Trump administration attempts to push forward with affordability policies as the K-shaped economy continues hammering the working poor.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 11:30

Tomorrow's Testimony: Kevin Warsh To Walk Tightrope On Rates, Inflation And Fed Independence

President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday at 10AM ET in what is shaping up to be one of the most politically charged confirmation hearings in the central bank’s modern history.

Warsh, a former Fed governor who has spent years criticizing the institution as directionless and in need of “regime change," now has the chance to outline his vision for remaking the world’s most powerful central bank. But he faces a delicate balancing act: signaling loyalty to Trump’s push for lower interest rates while reassuring markets, lawmakers, and global observers that he will safeguard the Fed’s independence and keep inflation in check.

The hearing arrives against a backdrop of extraordinary tension. Trump has repeatedly attacked current Chair Jerome Powell, attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook (a move now before the Supreme Court), and backed a Justice Department criminal probe into Powell and the Fed over a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. Powell has called the investigation politically motivated.

Markets continue to price in meaningful confirmation risk. As of this writing, Polymarket currently assigns roughly 33% odds that Warsh will be confirmed in time to replace Powell when his term expires on May 15.

//--> //--> //--> Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Yes 33% · No 68%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

ANZ Research expects him to affirm his commitment to the Fed’s independence and resistance to political pressure on rates, while arguing that strong productivity growth - aided by artificial intelligence - and the government’s deregulation agenda are structurally disinflationary forces that could support easier policy over time. Warsh has long described the Fed’s roughly $6.7 trillion balance sheet as “bloated” and views its reduction as central to restoring a sound monetary policy regime.

Warsh, 56, served on the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, the youngest person ever appointed to the role at age 35. A Stanford public policy graduate and Harvard Law alum, he previously worked in mergers and acquisitions at Morgan Stanley and as an economic policy adviser in the George W. Bush White House. During the 2008 financial crisis, he acted as the Fed’s key liaison to Wall Street, helping navigate the Bear Stearns and AIG rescues.

After leaving the Fed, Warsh became a vocal critic, arguing the central bank had strayed from its core mandate through over-reliance on complex models, opaque communication, excessive regulation, and a bloated $6.7 trillion balance sheet that distorts markets. He has long called for shrinking that balance sheet to reduce moral hazard and free up resources for the real economy.

His views appeared to evolve in 2025 as Trump’s return loomed and Powell’s term wound down. In July interviews on Fox Business and CNBC, Warsh advocated for rate cuts, citing potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence, deregulation, and housing disinflation. He has argued that aggressive quantitative tightening (QT) could offset the stimulative effect of lower rates, allowing the Fed to ease policy without reigniting inflation.

The Economic Backdrop: Iran War Fuels Inflation Uncertainty

Warsh’s testimony comes at a fraught economic moment - as the US-Israel war on Iran has driven a sharp surge in energy prices, pushing up inflation and prompting the Fed to pause further rate cuts after three reductions in late 2025. The federal funds rate currently stands at 3.5%–3.75% - with officials largely expected to hold steady at their next meeting.

Wholesale prices jumped 4% in the latest month, with energy costs up sharply. Fed officials, including Governors Christopher Waller and others, have stressed a “wait-and-see" approach, noting that a swift resolution to the conflict could reopen the door to cuts later in 2026 - but prolonged disruptions risk embedding higher inflation.

Warsh has previously pitched a multi-pronged case for eventual rate cuts centered on productivity surges and balance-sheet reduction. Analysts say he may argue for lower rates a year out while cautioning against premature easing now.

Political Hurdles Cloud Confirmation Path

Even as the hearing proceeds, Warsh’s path to confirmation remains uncertain. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a key Republican on the Banking Committee, has repeatedly vowed to block any Fed nominee—including Warsh—until the DOJ probe into Powell is fully resolved. Trump has signaled he wants the investigation to continue.

Democrats are united in opposition. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the committee’s top Democrat, met with Warsh last week and emerged with “new concerns," citing incomplete financial disclosures. All 11 Democratic members of the panel have called for delaying the hearing until the DOJ investigations end.

Senator Elizabeth Warren Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Warsh’s financial disclosures, released earlier this month, show joint assets with his wife, Jane Lauder (of the Estée Lauder fortune), totaling at least $130 million - $192 million or more, depending on valuation ranges. He has pledged to divest conflicting holdings if confirmed, but transparency questions persist.

What to Watch Tuesday

According to Bloomberg, lawmakers from both parties are expected to press Warsh on:

• His commitment to Fed independence - how will he respond to Trump pressuring him on rates?
• How he hopes to shrink the balance sheet without disrupting money markets or liquidity.
• Banking regulation amid a broader deregulatory push.
• Greater Fed-Treasury coordination.
• Updates to the Fed’s economic models and public communication.

Experts like former Kansas City Fed President Esther George have welcomed Warsh's ideas but stressed the need for clarity to preserve credibility. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently warned that perceived political interference anywhere undermines global central bank trust.

Investors will scrutinize every word for signals on future policy. A misstep - either appearing too deferential to Trump or too dismissive of inflation risks - could roil bond markets and push long-term yields higher. Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti noted that Warsh must thread the needle: outline a credible path to lower rates over time while forcefully defending independence. Luzzetti also points out that Warsh's argument for rate cuts is driven by a belief in disinflationary forces from deregulation and AI. 

Although we have not heard from Warsh recently, his comments prior to his nomination indicated support for rate reductions based primarily on a forecast that anticipates strong disinflationary forces from deregulation and AI. While we expect he will maintain this narrative about the economy, recent developments have weakened the case for lower rates – labor-market data have stabilized, PCE inflation has surprised to the upside, and the war in Iran poses further upside risks to inflation. -Matthew Luzzetti, DB

Powell’s term ends May 15. Whether Warsh is in place by then hinges on resolving the Tillis standoff and navigating Senate dynamics. Republicans are growing impatient with the delay, with some quietly urging the administration to drop the probe.

Warsh has described the Fed as needing fundamental reform to better serve its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Tuesday’s hearing will reveal whether senators believe he is the right person to deliver it—or whether the institution’s independence will emerge intact from one of its most turbulent periods. The stakes, as one political scientist put it, could hardly be higher.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 11:10

Schrodinger's Strait, Schrodinger's Market

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Erwin Schrodinger famously proposed a thought experiment to illustrate the apparent absurdity of quantum mechanics when applied to the macroscopic world. In the theoretical experiment, Schrodinger’s eponymous cat, contained in a box with a radioactive atom, a Geiger counter and a vial of poison, exists in a state of superposition whereby it is simultaneously both alive and dead until the box is opened.

And so it is with the Strait of Hormuz, which exists in a state of both openness and closedness until a ship actually attempts the transit.

On Friday Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that the Strait was “completely open” to all commercial vessels for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Markets reacted swiftly, the S&P500 rose 1.20% to close at a new all-time high and the Brent crude front future fell more than 9% to settle at $90.38/bbl – its lowest weekly close since the war began. Even dated Brent (the physical oil price for immediate delivery) fell by more than 15% to $98.95/bbl – its lowest level since March 11th, which was the immediate aftermath of Trump’s comment that the war in Iran is “very complete”.

The all important dated brent is plunging pic.twitter.com/rPRiOMp0BV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 17, 2026

However, the joy of financial markets has now turned to ash in our mouths as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps moved to re-establish (or re-assert?) the closure of the Strait. Several vessels were turned back over the course of the weekend and two were fired upon by the IRGC, prompting the Indian government to summon the Iranian ambassador to protest. Al Jazeera reports that more than a dozen ships attempted to transit the Strait in the brief time that it was open – including 8 successful transits of oil and gas tankers – but shipping had ground to a standstill again by Sunday.

And rejected: the two tankers taking the neutral route, Minerva Evropi and Nissos Keros, have turned around; the Sanmar Herald which appears to be taking the Iran-sanctioned Larak island route is proceeding. https://t.co/aceBI7ki0B pic.twitter.com/gmkM37iA1U

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 18, 2026

Also on Sunday, the US Navy seized the MV Touska, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that had been attempting to break the blockade en-route from Gaolan in China to the Iranian port of Banda Abbas. After a 6-hour radio standoff, the USS Spruance fired its main gun to disable the Touska’s propulsion systems before the vessel was boarded by US marines, marking the first known use of force in enforcing the blockade. The Washington Post reports that Gaolan is a known port of origin for sodium perchlorate, the primary oxidizer in solid rocket fuel for Iranian ballistic missiles.

U.S. Marines depart amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) by helicopter and transit over the Arabian Sea to board and seize M/V Touska. The Marines rappelled onto the Iranian-flagged vessel, April 19, after guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) disabled Touska’s… pic.twitter.com/mFxI5RzYCS

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 20, 2026

Thus, the seizure of the Touska marks a potential point of escalation for both sides. The IRGC has nominated lifting the US blockade as a red line for opening the Strait, which they say would need to be done under Iranian auspices, and the US has threatened secondary sanctions against any country that provides Iran with weapons.

Unsurprisingly, markets this morning are once again repricing the status of the Strait and the diminished prospect for a peace agreement ahead of the expected expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday. Brent crude has opened 7% higher, high beta FX is being sold sharply, and US equity futures are pointing to losses of ~0.8% at market open.

IRGC commander Vahidi is reported to have said that the Strait will open “by order of the [Supreme] Leader, not by the tweets of some idiot” in an apparent reference to Araghchi, highlighting the divisions between the IRGC and the civilian government in Tehran. US Senator Lindsey Graham has summarized the situation succinctly by tweeting “the guy in the suit (Araghchi) is not in charge. It’s the guys with the guns (the IRGC) who are in charge.”

Unfortunately, the US has been negotiating with the guys in the suits. This may be what Donald Trump was referring to when he previously said that regime change has already taken place. This also means that the progress that US negotiators have reportedly made with Iranian chief negotiator Ghalibaf are likely subject to an IRGC veto.

Ghalibaf himself has been issuing defiant tweets over the weekend peppered with oil trading advice and mini tutorials on how to use a Bloomberg terminal to effectively ‘monitor the situation’. One suspects that these are ghost-written by the IRGC in a similar fashion to the proclamations of Mojtaba Khamenei, who still hasn’t been seen since the war started.

Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper.
Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down.

EUCRBRDT Index GP

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 19, 2026

With Wednesday’s ceasefire expiry looming as a critical risk event for markets, the Wall Street Journal reports that Vice President J.D. Vance is set to lead a fresh round of peace talks with Iran in Pakistan on Tuesday. Awkwardly, there is no confirmation so far that the Iranians will turn up. Multiple outlets are citing Iranian state media reports that Iran will not be attending the talks due to the unreasonableness of US demands and the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, the US has been moving more and more military assets toward the region, including the Gerald R. Ford and George H.W. Bush carrier strike groups.

So, while we have Schrodinger’s Strait we also have Schrodinger’s market where we are simultaneously in the grip of the largest energy shock in history (according to the IEA) with physical shortages of loads of things needed for 21st century life, but this is also incredibly bullish and stock indices remain close to all-time highs.

Wrapping your head around this paradox might approach the impenetrability of quantum mechanics.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 10:50

Pentagon Releases Video Of Marines Landing On Iranian Ship

By Monday morning US Central Command had released fuller video showing the dramatic night vision footage of Sunday's capture of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, after it refused to follow US orders to withdraw from its planned passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pentagon soon after the interdiction and boarding released a very brief, limited clip of a US warship firing on the vessel from afar - or also what might have been a warning shot. Later it released short footage of the actual Marine boarding, which occurred in the dead of night:

The footage shows American special forces helicopters surrounding the stricken vessel as an elite team of Marines rappel onto its deck. The ship has since been identified as the Touska, already under Washington sanctions. The vessel could now become the "spoils of war" as the US effectively takes control of its contents.

CENTCOM in releasing the footage described in greater detail: "U.S. Marines depart amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) by helicopter and transit over the Arabian Sea to board and seize M/V Touska. The Marines rappelled onto the Iranian-flagged vessel, April 19, after guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) disabled Touska’s propulsion when the commercial ship failed to comply with repeated warnings from U.S. forces over a six-hour period."

The boarding operation went down a little after midnight in Iran, and the particular destroyer that initially fired on the Touska was the USS Spruance. It has used its 5-inch (127 mm) MK 45 gun to hit the ship's engine room.

The Iranian vessel tried to cross from the Arabian Sea through the Strait of Hormuz and was headed to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas when it was intercepted.

On Sunday President Trump had written on social media, "Our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engine room."

As of Monday, Trump is warning that he could order renewed major attacks and bombardment of the Islamic Republic, if it refuses to negotiate or if it doesn't compromise in talks, especially on the contested enriched uranium issue. Tehran has vowed never to transfer its stockpile to the US or outside the country.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 10:30

Saylor's Strategy Holdings Top 800,000 Bitcoin After 3rd Biggest Purchase In History

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, has blasted past 800,000 BTC in total holdings after announcing its latest purchases.

Strategy acquired 34,164 Bitcoin for $2.54 billion between April 13 and 19, according to an 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

As Helen Partz reports for CoinTelegraph.com, the buy ranks as Strategy’s third-largest Bitcoin acquisition on record by coin count, behind purchases of 55,500 BTC and 51,780 BTC in November 2024.

Holding around 780,897 BTC after a $1 billion purchase just a week ago, the company now holds 815,061 BTC, purchased for $61.56 billion.

Source: SEC

The new acquisition was made at an average price of $74,395 per coin, slightly below the company’s average acquisition price of $75,527.

Strategy’s STRC funds more than 85% of the purchase

Similar to a few recent acquisitions, the majority of Strategy’s latest purchase has been funded through Stretch (STRC), the company's perpetual preferred security.

According to the filing, STRC generated $2.18 billion, or about 85.7% of total proceeds, while sales of Class A common stock (MSTR) contributed $366 million.

Source: SEC

Last week marked several new records for STRC, including the company’s largest single-day buying spree through its at-the-market, or ATM, program.

On April 13, STRC set a new estimated daily record of about 7,741 BTC, based on the sale of 11.9 million shares through its at-the-market, or ATM, program, generating more than $1 billion in trading volume, according to STRC Live.

The stock set another record the following day, with an estimated 9,364 BTC tied to 14.4 million shares sold through its at-the-market, or ATM, program. The two days combined brought an estimated 17,204 BTC, marking a 518% surge versus the four-week average.

Strategy co-founder Saylor had teased the purchase on Sunday, signaling another large bitcoin acquisition ahead of the announcement. The company also disclosed on Friday plans to pay STRC dividends twice monthly.

“If we were to move forward with paying STRC semi-monthly, we would be in category one, the only preferred in the world that pays semi-monthly dividends. We think this is unique and attractive,” Strategy CEO Phong Le said.

Market-Cap/NAV Nears 1 Again...

Finally, recent gains for Strategy stock have lifted its market cap above $54 billion...

Pushing it closer and closer back towards its net asset value (value of BTC holdings).

For many, a shift for Market-Cap/NAV back above 1 is the greenlight for stability and a sustained recovery in MSTR's stock.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 10:15

Key Events This Week: Warsh Nomination Hearing, Retail Sales, Fed Blackout, Earnings

As the war in Iran enters its 8th week, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says that recent developments can be framed in two ways: either five steps forward towards peace and three back (seems more apt than three and two), or as evidence that the two sides remain far enough apart that a lasting deal will be extremely hard to achieve and markets have become far too optimistic. Reid leans more towards the former, but the comparison with recent history is uncomfortable. Remember the 10%+ S&P 500 rally in the early weeks of the war in Ukraine, when hopes briefly grew of an early negotiated settlement, only to be disappointed. That episode is a clear warning sign.

That said, the political calculus around Iran may be different. According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, President Trump’s approval rating dipped notably after the war began but appears to have stabilised since the two-week ceasefire was announced on 7 April—possibly reflecting the subsequent fall in petrol prices. A renewed deterioration in negotiations would therefore be unlikely to help approval ratings if oil and gas prices were to rise again.

The headline news over the weekend was Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz was shut less than 24 hours after indicating on Friday that it would reopen. Shipping through the strait has now again ground to a halt after picking up on Saturday. On Friday afternoon in London, Polymarket had priced the probability of Strait traffic returning to normal by the end of May as high as 84%. That has now fallen back to around 66%, close to last Thursday’s level, but still well above the 37% probability priced this time last week.

The current ceasefire is due to expire at some point on Wednesday. President Trump struck a more hawkish tone yesterday, posting that while his negotiators will be in Islamabad for talks tonight (with possible talks reported for Tuesday), if Iran does not accept the deal on the table the US will “knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran”. Iran’s state TV reported last night that Iran has “no plans for now to participate” in another round of talk with the US. Meanwhile, we heard that the US Navy had intercepted and boarded an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, marking the first such seizure since the US announced its blockade of Iranian shipping.

So while all eyes will be focused on the middle east, in terms of the week ahead, in the US, the main event in a quiet week for data and for Fedspeak given the media blackout has now started, comes tomorrow morning at 10:00am ET, when Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing. Although Warsh has said little publicly since being nominated, his earlier remarks offer important clues. He has previously argued that the US economy faces powerful disinflationary forces stemming from deregulation and the rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence, a mix that should ultimately allow interest rates to move lower. That narrative is likely to feature prominently in his testimony. However, the economic backdrop has shifted in recent months, making the case for near term easing less straightforward. The labor market has stabilized, inflation measures such as PCE have surprised to the upside, and the conflict in Iran has introduced renewed upside risks to prices via energy channels. See our economists' latest forecasts here from the end of last week where they have removed the one cut in 2026 that they previously had.

While Warsh has spoken in favor of rate reductions over time, he is not generally viewed as structurally dovish. If anything, his instincts have historically leaned more hawkish than many of his peers’. The delicate balancing act on Tuesday will be how he frames a longer-term desire to lower rates while acknowledging that current conditions do not necessarily justify imminent cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent comment that he would “understand if the Fed needs to wait on rate cuts” may give Warsh some political cover, allowing him to argue that temporary inflation risks require near term vigilance before policy can ease later on.

Beyond rates, senators are likely to probe Warsh on several other fronts. He has long been critical of the Fed’s balance sheet policies, though expectations of rapid change have faded, with consensus now favoring a gradual approach that first requires regulatory adjustments to reduce banks’ demand for reserves — a view shared by several current Fed officials. He is also expected to revisit his criticism of forward guidance, particularly its detailed use outside of crisis periods, potentially signalling a desire to simplify how the Fed communicates policy intentions. Fed independence will loom large too, especially at a time when inflation has remained above target for an extended period, oil prices have surged again, and political pressure to cut rates has intensified. Even assuming Warsh ultimately secures confirmation, risks remain, with Senator Thom Tillis reiterating that he intends to block progress on Fed appointments until the Department of Justice investigation into Chair Powell is resolved.

With Fed officials in their pre meeting communications blackout, economic data will do what it can to fill the void. Tomorrow also brings the most important release of the week in the form of March retail sales. Headline sales are expected to rebound by 1.2% month on month (DB forecast), up from 0.6% previously, helped by a recovery in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales are forecast to rise by a still solid 0.8%, compared with 0.5% last month, though much of that strength is likely to reflect higher petrol prices rather than a broad resurgence in discretionary spending. The retail control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, is expected to grow by a more modest 0.2%, down from 0.5% previously, suggesting that underlying goods demand remains steady but unspectacular.

Later in the week, Thursday brings a handful of releases that will help round out the picture. Initial jobless claims are expected to edge up to 210,000 from 207,000, a move that will be watched closely as the data coincide with the survey window for April’s employment report. While monthly payroll numbers have been volatile, most broader measures point to a labor market that has largely stabilized over the past year and looks in better shape now than it did to many prior to the Iran War. The same day also delivers preliminary S&P Global PMIs, with manufacturing expected to ease slightly to 52.1 from 52.3, while services are forecast to recover to 51.4 from 49.8. Any commentary on supply chains or pricing pressures linked to Middle Eastern developments will be scrutinized, even if the surveys only partially capture the latest geopolitical shifts.
Across the globe, Thursday also sees the global flash April PMIs which will give a sense on how companies are viewing the current conflict, even if newsflow, net net, has improved of late. The prices paid components will be worth a watch.

There are plenty of indicators due in the UK, including labour market data tomorrow and March inflation on Wednesday. Our UK economist forecasts headline CPI to jump to 3.3% YoY, with core staying roughly steady at 3.2% (see full preview here). There will also be the March retail sales report and the April GfK consumer confidence indicator due Friday.

Sentiment data is also a theme for next week in the rest of Europe, with releases featuring the ZEW survey (tomorrow) and the Ifo survey (Friday) in Germany, as well as consumer confidence in the Eurozone (Wednesday) and France (Friday). Briefly turning to European political events, the list includes the EU leaders’ informal summit on Thursday and EU foreign affairs council meeting tomorrow. Elsewhere, March inflation will be in the spotlight in Japan on Friday when the national CPI is due. There will also be the March CPI report in Canada (today) and the Q1 CPI (tomorrow) in New Zealand.

Rounding out with corporate earnings, there will be a number of companies across defence (RTX and Lockheed Martin), energy (SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton) and the materials (Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan) sectors reporting, whose results and outlook will be of interest amidst the Iran conflict. A number of airlines also post results. Tech names for this week will include Tesla, SK Hynix, Intel and SAP. Other highlights are Procter & Gamble, General Electric, American Express and Blackstone. See the full day-by-day week ahead at the end for more.

Soruce: Earnings Whispers

Day-by-day calendar of events courtesy of DB

Monday April 20

• Data: Japan February Tertiary industry index, Germany March PPI, Eurozone February construction output, Canada March CPI
• Central banks: China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, BoC business survey

Tuesday April 21

• Data: US April Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, March retail sales, pending home sales, February business inventories, UK February average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, March jobless claims change, Germany April Zew survey, France March retail sales, Eurozone April Zew survey, New Zealand Q1 CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Nagel, Guindos and Kocher speak
• Earnings: General Electric, UnitedHealth, RTX, Intuitive Surgical, Danaher, Interactive Brokers, Capital One Financial, ASM, DR Horton, MSCI,EQT, Halliburton, United Airlines
• Other: US-Iran ceasefire to expire, the Senate Banking Committee’s confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, EU  foreign affairs council meeting

Wednesday April 22

• Data: UK March CPI, RPI, PPI, February house price index, Japan March trade balance, Eurozone April consumer confidence
• Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Nagel and Sleijpen speak
• Earnings: Tesla, Lam Research, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, IBM, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Boeing, CME, ServiceNow, Boston Scientific, Moody's, CSX, Kinder Morgan, Sandvik, Southwest Airlines, Evolution
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Thursday April 23

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone April flash PMIs, US March Chicago Fed national activity index, April Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, UK March public finances, France April business confidence, EU27 March new car registrations, Canada March industrial product, raw materials price index
• Central banks: ECB’s Nagel speaks
• Earnings: SK hynix, Intel, American Express, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Honeywell International, Lockheed Martin, Newmont, Sanofi, Comcast, Freeport-McMoRan, Digital Realty Trust, Baker Hughes, Nokia, Orange, Nasdaq, DNB Bank, PG&E, Saab, Keurig Dr Pepper, Dassault Systemes, Dow, American Airlines
• Auctions: US 5-yr TIPS ($26bn)
• Other: EU leaders’ informal summit in Cyprus (through April 24)

Friday April 24

• Data: US April Kansas City Fed services activity, UK April GfK consumer confidence, March retail sales, Japan March national CPI, PPI services, Germany April Ifo survey, France April consumer confidence, Canada February retail sales
• Earnings: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, Keyence, Eni, SLB, Volvo, Yara

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the retail sales report on Tuesday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the May FOMC meeting. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will have his nomination hearing on Tuesday. 

Monday, April 20 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, April 21 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, March (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, March (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.3%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, March (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); Core retail sales, March (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.5%): We estimate core retail sales increased 0.1% in March (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting mixed alternative data and a headwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales increased 1.0%, reflecting sharply higher gasoline prices and an increase in auto sales. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we forecast a 1.0% decline in headline retail sales and a 0.1% decline in the control group.
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, February (consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%)
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, March (GS +0.5%, consensus -0.2%, last +1.8%)
• 10:00 AM Federal Reserve Chair nominee Warsh nomination hearing: Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will give prepared testimony and answer questions from members of the Senate Banking Committee in a nomination hearing. A livestream of the hearing is expected. 

Wednesday, April 22 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Thursday, April 23 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 18 (GS 220k, consensus 210k, last 207k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 11 (consensus 1,820k, last 1,818k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April preliminary (consensus 52.5, last 52.3); S&P Global US services PMI, April preliminary (consensus 50.1, last 49.8)

Friday, April 24 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, April final (GS 47.5, consensus 48.4, last 47.6); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, April final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%): We estimate that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked down to 47.5 and that the survey’s measure of long-term inflation expectations remained at 3.4% in the final April reading, reflecting roughly unchanged gasoline prices and the timing of the announcements of the US-Iran ceasefire and the subsequent US blockage of the Strait of Hormuz within the interview period for the final survey.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 10:05

"Critical Inflection Point" Reached As USA Rare Earth Expands With $2.8 Billion Serra Verde Buyout

USA Rare Earth Inc. is acquiring Brazil’s Serra Verde Group in a roughly $2.8 billion cash-and-stock deal, part of a broader push by the U.S. and its allies to secure independent supplies of critical minerals, according to CNBC and Bloomberg. 

The agreement includes $300 million in cash and a large share issuance, with the transaction expected to close in the third quarter.

The deal comes amid rising concern over China’s dominance in rare earths—a group of 17 elements essential for modern technologies ranging from smartphones to electric vehicles and military systems. As CEO Barbara Humpton put it, “The world has become too dependent on a single source and it’s high time to break that dependency.” She added that the acquisition provides “access to a producing mine that produces the four magnetic rare earths that are going to be serving our industry.”

Serra Verde’s asset is especially valuable because it can supply key magnet materials—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—which are critical for high-performance permanent magnets. The mine is also backed by a long-term offtake agreement tied to U.S. government-related entities, covering 100% of production for those four elements.

Strategically, the acquisition accelerates USA Rare Earth’s goal of building a fully integrated supply chain spanning “mining, separation, metalization and magnet manufacturing.” It also reflects a wider industry shift following China’s export restrictions, which exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains.

Serra Verde CEO Thras Moraitis emphasized the broader stakes, describing rare earths as “a strategic nexus where national and energy security, and technological supremacy, converge.”

He noted that Western governments are increasingly stepping in to support the sector, as it reaches a “critical inflection point” in the effort to develop reliable, non-China sources—especially for scarce heavy rare earth elements.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 09:45

AST SpaceMobile Craters After Blue Origin Rocket Fails To Place Satellite In Correct Orbit

Shares of AST SpaceMobile plunged the most since February after Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket failed to place the company's BlueBird 7 satellite into its intended orbit during Sunday morning's launch.

Shortly after the successful launch of New Glenn from the launchpad at Cape Canaveral, Florida, early Sunday, Blue Origin said the rocket's payload, the BlueBird 7 satellite, was placed into an "off-nominal orbit."

pic.twitter.com/BMAUIwF5jk

— Dave Limp (@davill) April 19, 2026

In other words, "off-nominal orbit" means that the BlueBird 7 satellite is not at the correct altitude, speed, or trajectory it was supposed to be in.

We have official confirmation that $ASTS BlueBird 7 is powered on, but sitting in an off-nominal orbit. The teams are working the problem.

Before th overreacts, look at the underlying mechanics:
▪️​Payload survived and is
communicating.
​▪️New Glenn GS1 booster reuse was… https://t.co/exY3JtJF43 pic.twitter.com/sYWsnP4nUB

— Karol Kozicki (@k2__investment) April 19, 2026

AST SpaceMobile published a statement saying the satellite's incorrect placement is "too low to sustain operations" and that it would be deorbited in the near term.

However, New Glenn's first stage successfully returned to Earth and landed on a barge in the Atlantic Ocean for the first time, marking a major accomplishment for Blue Origin's new era of reusable rockets.

pic.twitter.com/0WzaWjjjL9

— Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) April 19, 2026

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma told clients, "AST gained experience integrating its satellite with New Glenn and working with the Blue Origin team," adding, "The silver lining is that there was only one satellite on board, whereas future New Glenn launches may have as many as eight of AST's BlueBirds."

AST SpaceMobile shares cratered in premarket trading in New York, down as much as 14%. If premarket declines hold into the cash session, this would mark the worst session since February 12's 15% drop. The decline would wipe out much of this year's year-to-date gains of about 18% as of Friday's close.

The good news is that two U.S. private companies, SpaceX and Blue Origin, have achieved reusable rockets, something China's entire aerospace industry cannot.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 09:15

3 LA County Residents Charged In Luxury Car Insurance Scam Involving Bear Suit

Authored by Dylan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

Three Los Angeles County residents were charged on April 16 with insurance fraud involving a bear suit and luxury vehicles.

A fourth awaits trial.

The California Department of Insurance said the defendants used a person in a bear suit to stage fake attacks on their luxury vehicles, then submitted fraudulent claims for payouts to insurance companies that totaled around $142,000.

“What may have looked unbelievable turned out to be exactly that—and now those responsible are being held accountable,” Insurance Department Commissioner Ricardo Lara said.

“My Department’s investigators uncovered the facts, exposed this scam, and helped bring these defendants to justice. Insurance fraud is a serious crime that drives up costs for consumers, and no scheme is too outrageous for us to investigate.”

The department said the investigation began when an insurance company flagged a suspicious claim where the defendants said a bear entered their 2010 Rolls-Royce Ghost in Lake Arrowhead, California, on Jan. 28, 2024, and caused interior damage.

Alongside the claim, the defendants submitted security camera footage that showed a “bear” rummaging through the car’s interior and included photos of scratch marks on car doors and seats.

Department detectives determined the “bear” was a person wearing a bear costume.

Investigators later discovered two more fraudulent claims submitted to separate insurance companies with the same date and location, but tied to a 2015 Mercedes G63 AMG and a 2022 Mercedes E350.

These claims also included similar “bear attack” videos from security cameras shot in the same driveway of a “bear” going through the two Mercedes vehicles, and were also accompanied by photos of interior scratches.

The Department of Insurance said to further verify, it had a biologist from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife review the video, who said the “bear” in the footage was clearly a human in a bear suit.

Detectives later executed a search warrant in the suspects’ home and found a bear suit.

The four Los Angeles County residents involved were arrested on Nov. 13, 2024, and charged with insurance fraud and conspiracy. 

All three convicted defendants were sentenced to 180 days in jail to be served through a weekend jail program.

Alfiya Zuckerman, 39, of Valley Village, was ordered to pay around $55,000 in restitution. Ruben Tamrazian, 26, of Glendale, was ordered to pay around $52,000. Vahe Muradkhanyan, 32, of Glendale, has yet to have his restitution set.

The fourth defendant, Ararat Chirkinian, 39, of Glendale, will have a preliminary hearing in court in September.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 09:00

Futures Slide As Oil Jumps On Ceasefire Setbacks, Nasdaq In Danger Of Ending 13-Day Streak

Futures are lower, but well off session lows,after a weekend of chaos in the Strait of Hormuz cast doubt over US-Iran peace talks ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire expiration. On Saturday, Iran said the Strait will be closed until the US blockade is lifted, with ships reporting attacks. The US then fired and seized an Iranian-flagged ship on Sunday. Both headlines point to a re-escalation, as Iran military has now vowed to retaliate. It remains unclear whether the peace talks will continue ahead of the April 22nd deadline: POLITICO yesterday reported that Trump will continue peace talks with Iran in Pakistan on Monday, while Iran said in a news conference that they have “no plan” for next round of negotiation (here), although subsequent reports from AP indicated the opposite. There’s a big earnings week ahead, and top Wall Street strategists expect resilient numbers to support equities. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5% following a succession of record highs; the Nasdaq is down 0.4% and set to end a near-record stretch of 13 consecutive gains. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all lower with NVDA (-1.2%), MSFT (-1.0%) and META (-1.0%) being the notable laggards. European stocks slid 1.1% while Asian stocks rose in a delayed catch up to the Friday melt up in the US. Bond yields rose sharply in Europe, whereas the moves in Treasuries were more modest. The dollar was little changed, erasing an earlier gain. WTI crude oil jumped $4.6 (or 5.5%) to $88.5; both base metals and precious metals are lower with gold briefly dropping below $4,800 an ounce, before recovering. The US session is quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mostly lower (Apple unchanged, Tesla -0.7%, Alphabet -1%, Amazon -1%, Meta -0.9%, Microsoft -0.8%, Nvidia -0.9%)

• Airlines and cruise operators are down as the prospects of fuel prices staying at elevated levels weigh on sentiment. American Airlines (AAL) -3%, Carnival (CCL) -2%.
• Energy stocks are rising as US-Iran tensions flare up over the weekend. Chevron (CVX) +1%.
• Psychedelic-related stocks rally after President Donald Trump signed an executive order to expedite research and access to the substances used outside the US to treat post-traumatic stress disorder. AtaiBeckley (ATAI) +27%.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) drops 14% after Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket failed to correctly place a satellite made by the Texas-based company in its intended orbit.
• Avis Budget (CAR) drops 2% as Barclays downgrades to underweight following the stock’s near-vertical recent rally.
• Fermi Inc. (FRMI) falls 19% after the power company said its chief executive officer and chief financial officers have stepped down as the firm tries to secure its first customer.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 5% after the Information reported that Google is in discussions with the semiconductor company to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently.
• TopBuild Corp. (BLD) rises 18% after QXO Inc. said it’s acquiring the insulation company for about $17 billion. The acquisition will make QXO the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America.
• USA Rare Earth (USAR) gains 4% after agreeing to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group in a cash-and-stock transaction, adding to a string of recent deals in the industry.

In other corporate news, regulators across Asia are stepping up scrutiny of cybersecurity risks in their financial systems, as concerns over Anthropic PBC’s latest AI model Mythos spread. Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket launched to space on its third flight, reusing a booster for the first time but failing to correctly place the satellite it was carrying into its intended orbit. In deals, American Airlines said it’s not engaged with or interested in any discussions regarding a merger with United Airlines. QXO said it’s acquiring insulation firm TopBuild for about $17 billion, making it the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America. Patrick Industries and rival recreational-vehicle supplier LCI Industries are in talks to combine.

Monday’s risk-off moves are denting a rally that had erased all of the war-driven losses in US stocks. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered disparate views on the next stage of the war, leaving it unclear whether the sides would meet for talks on Tuesday, with a truce set to expire shortly. Sentiment was dented after oil and natural gas prices jumped as Hormuz remained closed early Monday. Iran initially said ships could pass before abruptly stopping traffic less than 24 hours later, while the US Navy fired upon and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. The energy crisis is rippling out in various ways. The WSJ reported that the UAE is said to be in talks with the US about a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the country into further crisis. The EU is planning to propose measures to “optimize” jet fuel distribution among member states, while China is becoming more dependent on the US for ethane gas. And traders are reassessing their playbooks as the war forces governments to become more self reliant.

Traders believe pressure on both parties to reach a deal remains high, even as volatility during negotiations is likely to be elevated. Iran’s state-run news agency cited President Masoud Pezeshkian as saying the war was in no one’s interest and that diplomatic avenues should be used to lower tensions.

“While the developments from the weekend certainly cooled the optimism, it did not derail it completely,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “Markets keep expecting a near-term solution which will allow energy to flow again.”

Technology stocks took a breather on Monday after the sector drove much of the rebound in US equities, with the Magnificent Seven up 20% since the US benchmark hit its 2026 bottom on March 30. Despite the re-escalation in the Middle East, top strategists say the market can keep rallying despite the turmoil. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka disagrees with bearish views that revolve around stagflation and expects resilient earnings to keep supporting the market. Ben Snider at Goldman Sachs says strong but narrow positive earnings revisions support a narrow market rally, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson notes that early 1Q results have been strong and the earnings recovery is intact.

The earnings season, meanwhile, has been off to a strong start. S&P 500 companies that have pusblished their results so far have seen their profits come in 11% above expectations, on aggregate, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence showed.  Major companies releasing earnings this week include Tesla Inc. and Boeing Co. on Wednesday, followed by Intel Corp. the following day. The economic impact of seven weeks of war in the Middle East will also begin to emerge this week when purchasing manager indexes are published Thursday. “Earnings season is supportive and does matter, but the dominant driver is geopolitics. Once a deal is reached, attention will shift back to earnings,” said Patrik Lang, chief investment strategist at Global Gate Asset Management. “The strength may be somewhat concentrated, as much of the growth continues to come from the Magnificent Seven.”

While the situation in the Middle East remains in flux, traders will also focus on Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing this week to lead the Federal Reserve. The US two-year yield is once again below the central bank’s 3.75% ceiling after trading above the level for much of the war.

Besides Warsh's Tuesday Senate confirmation hearing, in economic data, March retail sales are due Tuesday, with economists projecting a sizable jump in overall retail sales mainly due to sharply increased spending on gasoline. PPI is due on Thursday, followed by the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April on Fridat. The preliminary reading set a record low.

The jump in energy prices hit Europe, where the Stoxx 600 falls 1%. Airlines are the biggest losers and cyclical shares such as autos, banks and consumer products are also among notable laggards. The energy sector is outperforming. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Wacker Chemie advances as much as 2.5% after the company’s preliminary first-quarter Ebitda came in 18% ahead of consensus expectations.
• Stocks related to photonics technology for AI data centers soared on Monday, with Soitec and Riber in France and UK-listed IQE up more than 10%, as a rally in the sector extended further.
• Renishaw shares rise as much as 9.7% as the UK industrial instrumentation company lifts its full-year revenue and pre-tax profit guidance.
• Plus500 shares rise as much as 4% after the trading platform said annual revenue and earnings should come in ahead of current expectations.
• Advanced Medical Solutions shares rally as much as 19% after the maker of surgical and wound care products confirmed it is in discussions with TA Associates regarding a possible takeover offer.
• Sanofi shares fall as much as 2.2% as BNP Paribas downgrades the French pharmaceutical stock to neutral from outperform on revised pipeline assumptions.
• Loomis shares fall as much as 7.3% after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation to neutral from buy, saying that while good growth and profits are expected to continue in the near term, it is mostly priced into the market.
• Odfjell Drilling shares drop as much as 7.3% after the company halted production at its Deepsea Atlantic facility following an incident where the rig’s blowout preventer fell to the seabed at an approximate depth of 1,100 meters.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as investors shrugged off heightened tensions between the US and Iran to focus on prospects for further talks down the road, as well as strong local tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before paring most of its advance. SK Hynix and Tencent were among the top positive contributors. Stocks in Hong Kong led gains in the region, while South Korean shares erased their Iran war losses. While weekend hostilities cast doubt on when another round of Middle East negotiations may take place, risk sentiment has rebounded over the past couple of weeks. Earnings from Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix due Thursday are among key upcoming catalysts for the tech trade. As global gauges rebound and touch new highs one by one, however, some investors are cautious about being too optimistic.

“The clock is ticking, and it’s still unclear whether this relief rally has legs or if it’s simply a dead‑cat bounce,” said Sophie Huynh, a portfolio manager and strategist for dynamic asset allocation at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “Since the ceasefire, there has been no increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which makes the market’s ability to shrug off the Iran conflict hard to justify.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index adds 0.1%. The Aussie dollar and yen are the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% each. The Norwegian krone outperforms

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, with yields partially reversing an opening gap higher after weekend developments from the Middle East cast doubt on the prospects for peace talks ahead of a looming ceasefire deadline. Meanwhile, US Navy carried out its first seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures are subsequently higher with Treasury yields, while S&P futures are down on the day. US yields cheaper by 1.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with spreads broadly trading within a basis point of Friday session close. US 10-year yields traded around 4.27% with bunds and gilts lagging by 2bp and 4bp in the sector. European government bonds also underperform, with UK and German 10-year yields rising 4 bps and 3 bps respectively. US 10-year borrowing costs climb 1 bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals already. This week, syndicate desks anticipate sales around $20 billion to $25 billion, likely led by regional banks along with corporates coming out of their earnings blackout periods. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday and $26 billion 5-year TIPS Thursday. US economic data calendar slate empty for the session.

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 5% to around $95 a barrel after weekend developments cast doubt on the prospects for US-Iran peace talks. Precious metals slide, with spot silver down around 2%. Bitcoin rises back above $75,000. 

US session quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1%
• DAX -1.4%
• CAC 40 -1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.26%
• VIX +2.1 points at 19.59
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1194.19
• euro little changed at $1.1761
• WTI crude +5.9% at $88.79/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil climbed and equity futures dropped after the US seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel and Tehran again closed the Strait of Hormuz, clouding prospects for peace talks.
• An Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Tuesday, despite Tehran’s statements that it had no intention of sending its negotiators while the US navy is continuing a blockade of its ports. Nikkei
• US gas prices may remain at $3 per gallon or more until next year, contradicting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s prediction of relief by the summer. BBG
• China’s set to import a record volume of US ethane in April as petrochemical producers seek alternative feedstocks due to the Iran war. Shipments may rise to 800,000 tons, JLC said, around 60% higher than average. BBG
• There is a newfound sense of anxiety amongst battleground Republicans that their Senate majority isn’t as safe as they once thought. Democrats still face steep odds in their bid to flip the chamber, but there is persistent concern that the longer the Iran war drags on and the economy sputters, the more it could complicate their path to keeping their majority in November. Politico
• China sent a group of warships to hold drills in the western Pacific Ocean, a move that comes as Japan joins massive exercises with the US and the Philippines for the first time. BBG
• Google is in discussions with Marvell to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently. The Information
• A weekend hack triggered a crisis of confidence among crypto investors, with users pulling billions from DeFi’s biggest lending platform. BBG
• Warsh believes AI will trigger a productivity boom that keeps growth at a healthy level and allows the Fed to cut rates, but many of his future colleagues are skeptical of this thesis. WSJ

Iran News Wrap

• Iran reversed the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and said the waterway had returned to “strict control” after accusing the US of not meeting its obligations and refusing to lift the blockade on Iranian ports, with at least three attacks reported on commercial ships following the re-closure, including Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker and an attack on a cargo vessel near the strait that damaged containers on board.
• US President Trump said on Saturday that Iran got “a little cute” by closing the Strait again, but added there were still “very good conversations” going on.
• US President Trump announced on Sunday an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA tried to get past the US naval blockade, but the Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted it in the Gulf of Oman and gave a warning to stop. The Iranian crew refused, after which the US Navy ship disabled the vessel by blowing a hole in the engine room. Trump added that US Marines have custody of the vessel, and they are seeing what’s on board. It was separately reported that Mehr News Agency claimed US forces fired on an Iranian merchant ship to force it to return to territorial waters, but were then forced to flee after the rapid response of IRGC naval units.
• US President Trump posted on Sunday that “Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz – A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!”, while Trump stated that his representatives are going to Islamabad and will be there on Monday evening for negotiations.
• US President Trump said VP JD Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner will head to Islamabad, Pakistan, for fresh talks with Iran, and will arrive on Monday evening, according to a White House official.
• A US senior official said that if there is no breakthrough soon, the Iran war could resume in the coming days, and that the situation with Iran is at a critical point.
• Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to President Trump and told him that the Hormuz blockade is a hurdle to talks, according to a Pakistani security source cited by Reuters; Trump reportedly told Munir that he would consider his advice.
• Iran will send a delegation to a second round of talks with the US despite the latest escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, Anadolu Agency reported, citing two Pakistani sources.
• Pakistani Journalist Mallick posted "To my understanding, regardless of the statements and posturing, the second round of talks in Islamabad are to go ahead as per schedule and what is that schedule, only the parties know about the exact schedule."
• Iran parliament's national security and foreign policy commission head said the decision has been made to continue talks with US, but this does not mean negotiation at any cost; delegation may travel to Pakistan if positive signals received from the US
• Pakistan has intensified diplomatic contacts since Sunday with Washington and Tehran to ensure talks proceed as soon as Tuesday, AP reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said no decision has been made regarding participation in the new round of negotiations, Al Araby reported; the past week witnessed numerous diplomatic developments focused on negotiations to end the war. He further said that if the US or Israel launches new aggression, Iran’s armed forces will respond accordingly; Tehran has not received any serious offer regarding lifting sanctions on it.
• Iranian lawmaker said he doesn’t expect any deal with the US and believes even if there is a ceasefire, it won’t last.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader said Iran’s navy is ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on its enemies.
• Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free, while he added it is impossible to restrict Iranian oil exports and, at the same time, pretend to provide free protection to others. Furthermore, he said "The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or risk incurring enormous costs that will affect everyone".
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said there will be no further in-person peace talks with the US until Washington changes its “maximalist” demands, while the official added Iran would not hand over its enriched uranium to the US. Furthermore, IRNA also reported that Tehran has not agreed to participate in a second round of talks.
• Iran’s Security Council said it is reviewing proposals made by the US in recent days, and Iran is determined to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz until the war ends, while it was stated that Iran will not reopen the Strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports is in place.
• Iranian senior official said that significant differences remained between Iran and the US, including on nuclear issues and that serious talks are required, according to a report on Friday.
• Iranian Harat Khatam Al-Anbiya Central HQ spokesperson said the US attack on the Iranian commercial ship violates the ceasefire, and warned Iran will soon respond and retaliate to this armed piracy.
• Iranian sources told CNN that the Iranian delegation is expected to arrive in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to Al Hadath.
• Iran has yet to agree to another round of talks with the US, according to Iranian press. It was also reported that Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran will respond with full force if they return to war, while Iranian state media separately reported on Sunday evening that Tehran was not currently planning to take part in new talks with the US.
• Iranian source said given US President Trump’s remarks about talks and the contradiction with what is actually unfolding between Iran and the US, they believe they are facing trickery by the adversary and are on the brink of a fresh wave of escalation, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iranian senior official denied US President Trump’s claims and said that Iran did not agree to halt uranium enrichment indefinitely, while they will not accept being an exception to international law.
• Pakistani media sources said gaps between the US and Iran have been narrowed in recent days, according to Al Hadath.
• More than 20 vessels passed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, which is the highest number since March 1st, according to Kpler data. It was separately reported that an Iranian oil tanker broke through the US blockade and entered Iranian waters, according to CCTV.
• N13 reported, citing an Israeli senior official, that Israel has a "red line" related to ballistic missiles; should Iran cross this red line, then Israel has no choice but to respond.
• IDF confirmed it carried out the first strikes against Hezbollah since the ceasefire and that the strikes were against Hezbollah operatives who violated the ceasefire understandings.
• UAE opened talks with the US about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges it into a deeper crisis, according to US officials cited by WSJ. Furthermore, it was reported that UAE informed Washington it will be forced to sell its oil in yuan if it is not supplied with enough dollars.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region shrugged off the escalatory geopolitical headlines from over the weekend, including the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on several vessels by Iran, while US President Trump announced that the US Navy intercepted an Iranian-flagged vessel and blew a hole in the engine room after it attempted to get past the US blockade. This resulted in a spike in oil prices at the reopen and saw US index futures decline, although asset classes have faded the extremes as focus turns to talks in Islamabad, with President Trump sending negotiators for talks with Iran, although there is no confirmation yet on whether Iran will attend. ASX 200 traded little changed amid the mixed price action in commodity-related stocks and with financials subdued after NAB flagged a spike in impairments due to the Middle East conflict. Nikkei 225 rallied with the index briefly returning to the 59,000 level following the recent unwinding of April rate hike bets, and with the index unfazed by the rise in oil prices. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid earnings updates, but with further upside capped by a lack of macro catalysts, while the PBoC provided no surprises as it announced China's benchmark LPRs were maintained at their current levels for the eleventh consecutive month.

Top Asian News

• Earthquake with preliminary magnitude of 7.4 reported off the coast of Japan, with a tsunami warning issued, NHK reports

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) start the first trading week under pressure, as geopolitics continue to drive price action. Over the weekend, Iran (yet again) closed the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the US of not meeting its obligations, while an Iranian-flagged ship was struck by the US Navy. The DAX 40 is under the most pressure, while higher energy prices provide a floor for the FTSE 100. European sectors highlight the negative bias. Cyclicals such as Travel & Leisure, Autos and Banks sit at the bottom of the pile, while defensives such as Utilities outperform, with Energy also showing a strong performance amid the rise in crude prices.

Top European News

• German PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 2.5% vs Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -0.5%)
• German PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y -0.2% (Prev. -3.3%)
• UK Rightmove House Prices Y/Y (Apr) -0.9% (Prev. -0.2%)

Trade/Tariffs

• China's March rare earth magnet exports to the US fell 9.5% M/M and its rare earth magnet exports to Japan fell by 17.3% M/M.

FX

• G10 FX are displaying a modest risk-off bias today, with DXY higher by a tenth and high beta underperforming after geopolitical escalation over the weekend (Please refer to the European opening news).
• USD is the best performer as the preferred haven during this conflict, with energy prices also elevated, around USD 96/bbl for Brent. The domestic calendar is light, DXY is likely to be catalysed by Middle East Updates. Note, the Fed entered its blackout window on 18th April ahead of its 29th April confab.
• GBP digests domestic political updates, with the Sun reporting that Manchester Mayor Burnham met with Former UK Deputy PM Rayner on Friday. This fuelled speculation that the two are plotting to overthrow PM Starmer, who is on a weak footing following the Mandelson revelations (PM speaks at 15:30 BST on Mandelson’s vetting). Fortunately for UK assets, few expect any movement from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP, the body with power to oust the PM), according to POLITICO. MUFG writes: "So far the negative impact on the pound has been limited, but UK political developments have the potential to trigger a sharper sell-off in the month ahead”. GBP prefers to focus on geopolitical developments with Brent +6-7% on the day. EURGBP trades 0.1% higher, while Cable is 0.1% lower.
• JPY is one of the worst performers in the G10 space as USD/JPY continues to creep towards the critical 160 level. In a note on Sunday, Barclays said it shifted its BoJ hike forecast to June from April, following harsh (For the BoJ) repricing at the beginning of last week amid a lack of hawkish commentary from Ueda. This morning, NHK reported a preliminary 7.4 magnitude earthquake off the north-east coast of Japan. A three-meter-high wave warning was issued for the northern region; no impact on Japanese assets.

Central Banks

• BoJ is reportedly likely to keep rates on hold at April's meeting, Reuters reported citing sources.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are broadly in the red, given the recent surge in energy prices, after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and fired at three commercial vessels. (Please see the Newsquawk feed for a full geopolitical overview). Now markets await potential second round talks between US-Iran – some reports have suggested both sides will be in the region on Tuesday. As it stands, newsflow on whether the talks will actually take place is mixed; the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman suggested that no decision has been made on whether the talks will happen. On the yield front, a clear bear flattening is seen in the curve; a bias which has continued to play out throughout periods of escalation between US-Iran.
• JGBs traded with mild gains overnight, bucking the trend seen across peers. Potentially just catching up to the considerable upside seen in fixed benchmarks on Friday (following the opening of the Strait), and also as traders price out the chance of an April hike at the BoJ. Senior rate strategist at SMBC said “the market's main scenario appears to be that a rate hike will be put off next week”, but he highlighted that Ueda could signal a shift in stance at April’s presser.
• USTs are off by around 7 ticks, and currently trade at the lower end of a 111-12+ to 111-18 range; but still holding around the mid-point of Friday’s range of 111-04 to 111-23. Essentially, markets have not entirely discounted the strength seen in US paper following Iran’s brief opening of the Strait. The US 2yr remains around 3.75%, which has proven to be a point of support for in the past week. US domestic docket ahead is particularly thin, with no US data/Fed speak scheduled.
• Bunds are lower by around 40 ticks, and trading towards the bottom of a 125.66 to 125.89 range. Once again moving at the whim of geopolitical developments/higher energy prices; the GE 2s10s is a touch wider once again, but residing near the lows seen on Friday. Geopols aside, focus has been on the ECB, where a few policymakers spoke over the weekend/late-Friday. Demarco and Kazaks suggested that they were comfortable with bets of two hikes this year, whilst Kocher warned against pre-emptive ECB rate action on uncertainty. Sticking with the ECB, a recent survey of monetary policy experts by the OMFIF suggested that former ECB member de Cos is the “most qualified candidate” in the race to succeed President Lagarde.
• Gilts lag vs peers. UK paper has continuously seen bouts of underperformance when oil prices rise, given its high dependence on external energy. But also adding to the downbeat narrative is domestic politics, with continued focus on PM Starmer’s future. The Sun reported that Manchester Mayor Burnham met with Former Deputy PM Rayner on Friday, which has fuelled rumours of the pair launching a leadership challenge. Gilts currently trade down by around 66 ticks and at the lower end of a 88.44 to 88.72 range.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, stating it will remain under strict control and will not reopen while the US blockade of its ports continues, with multiple reported attacks on commercial vessels following the move. Tensions escalated after US Marines seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship TOUSKA as it attempted to breach the blockade, while President Trump said a separate Iranian vessel was intercepted and disabled after ignoring warnings. Iran condemned the seizure as piracy and warned it would retaliate, as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire. Meanwhile, uncertainty persists around US-Iran talks, with Washington planning fresh negotiations in Pakistan, although Tehran has not confirmed participation and significant gaps remain, particularly over nuclear terms and control of the Strait. More recently, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said no decision has been made regarding participation in the new round of negotiations. Elsewhere, the Pakistani Army Chief told US President Trump that the Hormuz blockade is a hurdle in talks, to which Trump responded that he would consider his advice.
• Oil jumped as a result, with Brent climbing back above USD 95/bbl, reversing most of Friday’s decline (currently in a USD 94.33–97.50/bbl range) after the waterway’s brief reopening. WTI June trades in a USD 86.46–89.60/bbl range. Upside has been facilitated by the aforementioned escalation, with additional support following comments from the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson indicating no decision has yet been made on talks with the US. That said, gains are somewhat capped by ongoing efforts to bring the US and Iran back to the table ahead of the ceasefire expiry on Wednesday (UK time). European natural gas prices also rose, with Dutch TTF futures briefly moving back above EUR 43/MWh after Iran shut the Strait again.
• Spot gold and silver declined as the renewed disruption in Hormuz stoked inflation concerns tied to an energy supply shock and cast further doubt over efforts to end the conflict, with bullion slipping below USD 4,800/oz but currently off worst levels. Spot gold is trading in a USD 4,736–4,814/oz range.
• Copper retreated from its highest close since early February. Iron ore bucked the broader trend and rose overnight, with reports noting firm Chinese demand ahead of the May Day holidays and tight near-term supply. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 13,204.90–13,375.28/t range at the time of writing.
• Qatari sources say it may take up to five years to repair damaged gas facilities.
• Iraq reportedly resumes Southern Oil exports after a month-long halt due to Strait of Hormuz disruption, one tanker begins loading, according to four energy sources cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine's Drone Force Commander says Russia's Tuapse oil refinery was struck overnight.

US Event Calendar

• US session quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement. 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As the war in Iran enters its 8th week, recent developments can be framed in two ways: either five steps forward towards peace and three back (seems more apt than three and two), or as evidence that the two sides remain far enough apart that a lasting deal will be extremely hard to achieve and markets have become far too optimistic. I lean more towards the former, but the comparison with recent history is uncomfortable. Remember the 10%+ S&P 500 rally in the early weeks of the war in Ukraine, when hopes briefly grew of an early negotiated settlement, only to be disappointed. That episode is a clear warning sign.

That said, the political calculus around Iran may be different. According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, President Trump’s approval rating dipped notably after the war began but appears to have stabilised since the two-week ceasefire was announced on 7 April—possibly reflecting the subsequent fall in petrol prices. A renewed deterioration in negotiations would therefore be unlikely to help approval ratings if oil and gas prices were to rise again.

The headline news over the weekend was Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz was shut less than 24 hours after indicating on Friday that it would reopen. Shipping through the strait has now again ground to a halt after picking up on Saturday. On Friday afternoon in London, Polymarket had priced the probability of Strait traffic returning to normal by the end of May as high as 84%. That has now fallen back to around 63%, close to last Thursday’s level, but still well above the 37% probability priced this time last week.

The current ceasefire is due to expire at some point on Wednesday. President Trump struck a more hawkish tone yesterday, posting that while his negotiators will be in Islamabad for talks tonight (with possible talks reported for Tuesday), if Iran does not accept the deal on the table the US will “knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran”. Iran’s state TV reported last night that Iran has “no plans for now to participate” in another round of talk with the US. Meanwhile, we heard that the US Navy had intercepted and boarded an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, marking the first such seizure since the US announced its blockade of Iranian shipping.

This backdrop has meant that markets this morning have reversed a good chunk of Friday’s moves. Brent crude is up +5.61% to $95.45/bbl after a -9.07% decline on Friday, leaving it at levels seen around the middle of last week. The extent of the reversal has been more partial outside of oil, with S&P 500 futures down -0.60% (+1.20% Friday), while 10yr Treasuries yield are +2.0bps higher (-6.3bps Friday).

Asian equity markets are surprisingly resilient this morning although they were long closed by the time the positive headlines came through on Friday. Across the region, the KOSPI is leading the charge with a +1.00% gain, with the the Hang Seng (+0.84%) slightly outperforming its mainland Chinese counterparts, namely the CSI (+0.54%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%). The Nikkei (+0.71%) is also firm.

In terms of the week ahead, in the US, the main event in a quiet week for data and for Fedspeak given the media blackout has now started, comes tomorrow morning at 10:00am ET, when Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing. Although Warsh has said little publicly since being nominated, his earlier remarks offer important clues. He has previously argued that the US economy faces powerful disinflationary forces stemming from deregulation and the rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence, a mix that should ultimately allow interest rates to move lower. That narrative is likely to feature prominently in his testimony. However, the economic backdrop has shifted in recent months, making the case for near term easing less straightforward. The labour market has stabilised, inflation measures such as PCE have surprised to the upside, and the conflict in Iran has introduced renewed upside risks to prices via energy channels. See our economists' latest forecasts here from the end of last week where they have removed the one cut in 2026 that they previously had.

While Warsh has spoken in favour of rate reductions over time, he is not generally viewed as structurally dovish. If anything, his instincts have historically leaned more hawkish than many of his peers’. The delicate balancing act on Tuesday will be how he frames a longer-term desire to lower rates while acknowledging that current conditions do not necessarily justify imminent cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent comment that he would “understand if the Fed needs to wait on rate cuts” may give Warsh some political cover, allowing him to argue that temporary inflation risks require near term vigilance before policy can ease later on.

Beyond rates, senators are likely to probe Warsh on several other fronts. He has long been critical of the Fed’s balance sheet policies, though expectations of rapid change have faded, with consensus now favouring a gradual approach that first requires regulatory adjustments to reduce banks’ demand for reserves — a view shared by several current Fed officials. He is also expected to revisit his criticism of forward guidance, particularly its detailed use outside of crisis periods, potentially signalling a desire to simplify how the Fed communicates policy intentions. Fed independence will loom large too, especially at a time when inflation has remained above target for an extended period, oil prices have surged again, and political pressure to cut rates has intensified. Even assuming Warsh ultimately secures confirmation, risks remain, with Senator Thom Tillis reiterating that he intends to block progress on Fed appointments until the Department of Justice investigation into Chair Powell is resolved.
With Fed officials in their pre meeting communications blackout, economic data will do what it can to fill the void. Tomorrow also brings the most important release of the week in the form of March retail sales. Headline sales are expected to rebound by 1.2% month on month (DB forecast), up from 0.6% previously, helped by a recovery in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales are forecast to rise by a still solid 0.8%, compared with 0.5% last month, though much of that strength is likely to reflect higher petrol prices rather than a broad resurgence in discretionary spending. The retail control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, is expected to grow by a more modest 0.2%, down from 0.5% previously, suggesting that underlying goods demand remains steady but unspectacular.

Later in the week, Thursday brings a handful of releases that will help round out the picture. Initial jobless claims are expected to edge up to 210,000 from 207,000, a move that will be watched closely as the data coincide with the survey window for April’s employment report. While monthly payroll numbers have been volatile, most broader measures point to a labour market that has largely stabilised over the past year and looks in better shape now than it did to many prior to the Iran War. The same day also delivers preliminary S&P Global PMIs, with manufacturing expected to ease slightly to 52.1 from 52.3, while services are forecast to recover to 51.4 from 49.8. Any commentary on supply chains or pricing pressures linked to Middle Eastern developments will be scrutinised, even if the surveys only partially capture the latest geopolitical shifts.

Across the globe, Thursday also sees the global flash April PMIs which will give a sense on how companies are viewing the current conflict, even if newsflow, net net, has improved of late. The prices paid components will be worth a watch.

There are plenty of indicators due in the UK, including labour market data tomorrow and March inflation on Wednesday. Our UK economist forecasts headline CPI to jump to 3.3% YoY, with core staying roughly steady at 3.2% (see full preview here). There will also be the March retail sales report and the April GfK consumer confidence indicator due Friday.

Sentiment data is also a theme for next week in the rest of Europe, with releases featuring the ZEW survey (tomorrow) and the Ifo survey (Friday) in Germany, as well as consumer confidence in the Eurozone (Wednesday) and France (Friday). Briefly turning to European political events, the list includes the EU leaders’ informal summit on Thursday and EU foreign affairs council meeting tomorrow. Elsewhere, March inflation will be in the spotlight in Japan on Friday when the national CPI is due. There will also be the March CPI report in Canada (today) and the Q1 CPI (tomorrow) in New Zealand. Rounding out with corporate earnings, there will be a number of companies across defence (RTX and Lockheed Martin), energy (SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton) and the materials (Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan) sectors reporting, whose results and outlook will be of interest amidst the Iran conflict. A number of airlines also post results. Tech names for this week will include Tesla, SK Hynix, Intel and SAP. Other highlights are Procter & Gamble, General Electric, American Express and Blackstone. See the full day-by-day week ahead at the end for more.

Recapping last week now, and markets climbed higher as prospects for a resolution between Iran and the US became more likely over the week. That was further cemented on Friday after Iran’s Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz would now be open for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Although that was reversed less than a day later on Saturday, this helped drive Brent crude down -5.06% (-9.07% on Friday) last week to $90.38/bbl, its lowest close since March 10. In turn, multiple asset classes rallied as investors dialled back fears of a stagflation shock.

Those included equities, where multiple indices reached new records on the back of the Strait of Hormuz opening. The S&P 500 (+4.54%) saw its largely weekly rise since May 2025, closing at a new record high of 7126 (+1.20% on Friday). It had crossed above the 7,000 threshold for the first time earlier in the week on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite also rose +6.84% (+1.52% on Friday) to a new record, extending to a 13th day of consecutive gains for the first time since 1992. In Europe, most of the gains for equities came thanks to Friday’s jump, with the STOXX 600 (+1.91%, +1.56% Friday), CAC 40 (+2.00%, +1.97% Friday) FTSE 100 (+0.63%, +0.73% Friday) and DAX (+3.77%, +2.27% Friday) higher.
In fixed income, bonds also rallied as investors eased their concerns around the prospect of an energy-driven inflationary shock. In Europe, expectations of an April rate hike from the ECB collapsed from 34% to just 9% last week, which in turn helped yields on 2yr bunds (-19.4bps to 2.41%, -10.9bps on Friday) to see their largest weekly fall since April 2025. 10yr bund yields also declined by -9.8bps to 2.96% over the week (-7.2bps on Friday). Yields on 2yr (-8.9bps) and 10yr (-6.9bps) US Treasuries also fell over the week, as futures-implied probability that the Fed will cut by December rose to 61% compared to 26% the previous week. 

Finally, the news of tensions de-escalating in the Middle East triggered other notable moves in markets, with the dollar down for the third consecutive week at -0.56% (-0.12% on Friday). In credit, spreads tightened across the board, with US IG (-1bps) and HY spreads (-12bps) both falling last week, whilst Euro IG (-4bps) and HY spreads (-4bs) also fell back.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/20/2026 - 08:45