Futures Rise Ahead Of Hot CPI As Houthis Torch Aramco HQ, ASML Beat Fails To Revive Chip Trade

US futures are higher, with small caps leading and tech lagging, as traders brace for what is expected to be the hottest monthly CPI print since the spring, digest more escalation in the Gulf after Yemen's Houthis hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and vowed more strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities, and count down to Anthropic's pre-IPO investor day which one strategist warns "will move the entire market"; as a result oil is grinding higher while the bond rout takes another breather with the 10Y sliding to 5.20%. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher at 7,872 while Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% and Dow futures are up 0.4%; Russell 2000 contracts are up 0.3%.On Tuesday the S&P closed fractionally lower (-0.02%) as the Philly semi index posted a fifth straight drop - its longest losing streak since July - and the KBW Banks index slid 1.4% with all 24 members lower on day one of bank earnings. In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher led by Alphabet, BlackRock jumps after pulling in $205 billion in new money, while Bank of America slips after a $1.21 billion money-laundering fine (as we reported yesterday) and an equities trading miss; memory names are again under pressure (MU -1.4%, SNDK -2.3%), extending the memory meltdown, even as ASML's beat-and-raise sparked a modest rally in Europe.  The day's driver is CPI: consensus expects headline to jump 0.6% M/M and 3.6% Y/Y - the biggest monthly advance in five months on the back of surging gasoline prices - with core seen at 0.2%, while swaps price roughly 24% odds of a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 FOMC, meaning that the print "mostly decides December". Treasuries are slightly richer, with yields down about 1bp across the front-end and belly and the 10Y at 5.20%, dragged lower by a rally in gilts after BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill cast doubt on market pricing of four hikes by next summer and the FT reported Chancellor Healey will fund budget giveaways with taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing. The Bloomberg dollar index is little changed, while the Aussie is the best G-10 performer after blowout Chinese trade data. In commodities, WTI has swung between gains and losses and was last up around 1.6% as traders weigh the latest Middle East hostilities, after the IEA warned diesel supplies will remain constrained well into 2027 and OECD government oil stocks hit the lowest since 1989; gold slips 0.4% to $4,144 and silver drops over 1% to its lowest since August, while copper is firmer. Bitcoin is flat around $83,000. US economic data slate includes MBA mortgage applications (already out: -2.7%) and September CPI (8:30am); the Fed releases its Beige Book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (1:30pm), Goolsbee (3pm) and Bowman (10:55pm). The Treasury sells $75 billion in 17-week bills at 11:30am.

In premarket trading, Alphabet leads Magnificent 7 peers higher a day after Google's Gemini 4 Argon was made available for developers and enterprises: Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.9%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.5%, Apple (AAPL) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.2%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.2%, Tesla (TSLA) little changed.

• Albemarle (ALB) rises 3% after Mizuho raised its recommendation to buy on lithium demand.
  Bank of America (BAC) falls 4% after its stock and fixed-income traders missed estimates as the bank’s results were also hurt by a charge tied to regulatory penalties over money laundering and sanctions violations.
• BlackRock (BLK) jumps 4% after the asset manager pulled in $205 billion of new money in the third quarter and revenue surged.
• Brinker International (EAT) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the restaurant operator to buy, noting the firm’s transition from “turnaround into a durable, compounding story.”
• Enovix (ENVX) spikes 8% after the advanced lithium-ion battery manufacturer announced a purchase order from a multinational provider of dual-use drone systems.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE -4%), Dell (DELL -2%) and NetApp (NTAP -3%) decline after Barclays downgraded all the names to equal-weight, citing the recent “significant” stock run and a more cautious approach on the stocks given the enterprise spending environment.
• Liquidia (LQDA) soars 40% after reaching a global settlement resolving all pending litigation with United Therapeutics.

In other corporate news, Bank of America was fined more than $1.21 billion for money laundering and sanctions violations by US regulators, who said the bank "effectively outsourced" a key part of its compliance efforts as it sought to protect revenue (it then reported 3Q equities trading revenue ex-DVA of $2.51 billion, short of the $2.63 billion estimate, so not the best morning in Charlotte); BofA is also no longer part of the potential roster of banks working on Moonshot AI's IPO as the Chinese AI darling faces scrutiny in the US. Palliser Capital wants Samsung Electronics to list shares in the US and use the proceeds to buy back preferred stock. Galderma agreed to buy ZO Skin Health for an enterprise value of $1.5 billion in an all-cash deal. OpenAI is in early talks to buy security startup Trail of Bits, The Information reported - which comes a day after an OpenAI employee was arrested for planting a recording device in one of its offices. SentinelOne brought a $1.25 billion zero-coupon convertible to market, Sierra Space's CFO has left after about six months in the role, Nvidia committed $250 million to UK agentic safety research over five years, and the EU is set to lift a sanction on a Chinese firm to save an ASML supplier.

Stock futures are edging higher as traders await inflation data, more bank earnings and an even bigger catalyst in the form of Anthropic's pre-IPO investor day in San Francisco, where the company is set to disclose new revenue numbers to a select group of investors. Investors are already getting more selective on the AI trade: ASML had a subdued reaction to a solid headline print, while Applied Materials sank after its results lacked detailed guidance, pointing to high expectations for the picks and shovels part of the technology. Meanwhile, after another day in which tech was wrecked again as AI credit cracks widened, the median stock is 16% below its 52-week high - the weakest breadth since the Dotcom Bubble according to Goldman's Prime desk - or as BTIG put it, the Mag 7 is all that's left holding up the index.

"When word gets out about the revenue run rate, it will move the entire market," said Jonestrading's Mike O'Rourke. "The investment community wants to know whether Anthropic is going public from a position of strength or weakness."

There's also a distinction emerging between the cost of compute (expensive) and the cost of intelligence (falling fast). "If AI follows the path of previous general-purpose technologies, the price of the technology itself will trend towards marginal cost, while value migrates to whatever is built on top," said Northern Trust's Gary Paulin.

 

As for CPI, Bloomberg Economics expects September headline to accelerate to 3.7% as gasoline prices rise, with core edging up to 2.5%, but sees the pickup as "mostly a story of localized hot spots, not broad-based price pressures," leaving the Fed room to stay patient; Goldman expects core at 0.24% (vs 0.2% consensus) and headline at 0.59%, while DB's economists see core at just 0.16%. Whatever the number, the options market is barely paying attention: option event premium suggests CPI is likely a non-event, with the SPX implied swing around 0.5% - as Goldman's Gail Hafif notes, the 52bp straddle is "one of the lowest CPI straddles we've seen this year." Our full preview is here.

“Headline inflation remains elevated, but as long as we don’t get something like 1.0% month-on-month, markets should be able to absorb the print quite well,” said Bank of New York Mellon strategist Geoffrey Yu. “The challenge is if core inflation is elevated.”

Option event premium suggests the event is likely a non-event for the market.  The real stress, however, remains in bonds, not stocks: the MOVE index of Treasury volatility at 101 has climbed about 20 points over a month while the VIX at 15 sits in the calm band, and Fidelity's chief investment strategist Salman Ahmed says the 10Y could still climb to 6% (more on that below). Meanwhile, day one of bank earnings was messier than the headline beats suggested: JPMorgan posted a surprise drop in fixed income trading revenue and Goldman missed in credit and rates, and per Goldman sector specialist Christian DeGrasse, bank shares are taking their cues from semiconductors and rates rather than anything lenders themselves have said, with CET1 ratios at JPM and Wells down 30bp on the quarter and JPM's buyback slowing to about $1 billion from $6.7 billion. The S&P 500 banks index is down about 7.5% over the past month.

JPM's Market Intel desk (Andrew Tyler's team) remains Tactically Bullish and notes that after five straight down sessions in the SOX, ASML's beat-and-raise drew a positive stock reaction "but didn't restart the broader Semis / Memory trade"; with tech front and center, the desk says to watch for a possible squeeze post-CPI. JPM's Feroli sees headline at 0.55% M/M (3.6% Y/Y) and core at 0.18% (2.4% Y/Y), a print that "should be enough to keep the bond market from re-pricing an October hike." On banks, JPM's financials specialist Rob O'Dwyer says the universal feedback on the sector's weakness is "head scratching, which tends to suggest that price action is driven by quants and passive flow" - in his view a reason to fade the move and buy the group. The desk's bank earnings read-through was unambiguously bullish on the consumer: card spending grew 10% Y/Y at JPM and 13% at Citi, while delinquencies and net credit losses are falling at C and WFC.

Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky says he "can't remember a time when the frontier was quite so competitive" and is "increasingly conscious that the limiting factor may not be demand, but our willingness and ability to finance and deliver the supply." Goldman's London TMT desk called this morning "a test just how bearish the market has become on AI and semiconductors", with sentiment "caught in a bearish feedback loop" - ASML's own warning that capacity growth of "30% in 2027, 30% in 2028 will not allow us to meet our customer demand" is hardly the stuff of an AI bust. In New York, Peter Callahan notes that Mag 7 has outperformed the NDX for eight straight sessions while Semis lag the market by ~8 points over their five-day losing streak, adding: "As if we needed another reminder that the 'index' often doesn't tell the whole story anymore."

In France, the OAT-Bund spread is holding around 137bp after narrowing on Tuesday, as ECB President Lagarde said "the primary and first solution lies in French fiscal policy" when asked about French debt, while National Rally leader Le Pen told the FT she has the "will and conviction" to cut France's contribution to the EU budget and wants the ECB to be able to finance borrowing for priorities such as defence and the energy transition (more on the Le Pen shadow budget here).

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.5% at 638.60 as the earnings season gathers pace, with chip-equipment maker ASML buoying the tech sector after its sales outlook exceeded expectations. Real estate tops the sector pile, followed by tech and consumer products & services, while autos, insurance and banks lag; per JPM, homebuilders and luxury are among the best performing baskets. Here are the biggest European movers:

• ASML shares rise as much as 3.6% after the semiconductor equipment maker gave a strong demand outlook, saying customers are expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030.
• Aker BP shares rise 2.5% after the Norwegian oil company reported average production for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Technip Energies gains as much as 2.3% after UBS upgrades the engineering company to buy from neutral, arguing that a record backlog and margin recovery will likely turn around sentiment.
• Bossard shares rise as much as 5% after the Swiss logistics company's third-quarter sales beat the average analyst estimate, supported by organic growth in Asia.
• Big Yellow rises as much as 6.3% after activist investor Ancora said it holds a more than 4% stake and released a presentation urging the UK-listed company's board to launch a strategic review, including a full sale process.
• Lonza shares rise as much as 2.7% after the Swiss drug ingredients maker gave mid-term guidance at its capital markets day that included a new target for Ebitda margin in the high-30s.
• Ashmore shares rise as much as 3.4% after the emerging-market fund manager's first-quarter update showed assets under management slightly ahead of estimates and gross redemptions at the lowest quarterly level in over 15 years.
• SEB shares fall as much as 5.7% after the lender said it expects the Swedish regulator's ruling that its Internal Ratings-Based credit risk models are deficient to temporarily reduce capital buffers by about 120 basis points.
• Softcat shares fall as much as 8.5%. The software reseller reiterated its recently-upgraded guidance for Ebit growth through fiscal year 2027, though analysts note that it lags both consensus expectations and prior years' performance.
• Orsted drops as much as 4.4% after the US Justice Department asked a federal court to remand the Interior Department's approval of a construction and operations plan for the Danish firm's Revolution Wind project.

Asian stocks ended mixed after an early tech-led rebound faded: the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7% before erasing gains to trade 0.1% lower, as "ASML's earnings and supply outlook comments weighed on regional semiconductor sentiment during afternoon trading" per Goldman's Asia desk. The Kospi, which had been up more than 1% after Tuesday's 5.5% crash, closed 0.4% lower, the Nikkei was flat (-0.05%) and the Topix fell 0.3%. Taiwan's Taiex led with a 0.6% gain, while the Hang Seng slipped 0.1% even as the Hang Seng Tech index rose 0.9% after China's September trade surplus hit a record $133.5 billion, with exports up 36.3% (vs 25.5% expected) and imports up 31%. Mainland China lagged, with the CSI 300 down 1.4% and turnover back near year-to-date lows, while Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.6%. In Japan, Olympus tumbled 13.5% on an FDA warning.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed and the DXY is stuck in a 102.07-102.23 range, initially pressured by Fed's Williams' dovish remarks before a bounce in oil and the Houthi threats brought it back to unchanged. The Australian dollar is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.4% against the greenback on the strong China trade data, while havens CHF and JPY are the slight underperformers given the risk tone; USD/JPY is at 158.2. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1206 and GBP/USD at 1.3264 as UK budget coverage ramps up ahead of the Oct. 28 Autumn Budget.

In rates, Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, with front and belly leading marginal gains, supported by a wider rally across European bonds after dovish comments from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill. US yields are richer by up to 1bp across the front-end and belly, with the 5s30s spread about 1bp steeper and the 10Y at 5.205%, as gilts outperform by about 3bp in the sector; UK 10-year yields fall 5bp to 5.40% after Pill cast doubt on market pricing of four hikes by next summer (at least someone at the BoE is pushing back on the market, rather than the other way around). Bunds are about 10 ticks firmer while the OAT-Bund spread holds at 137bp. Ahead of CPI, swaps price around 6bp of tightening for the Oct. 28 meeting, or roughly 24% odds of a quarter-point move, and around 80bp of hikes over the next year. The IG dollar issuance slate is empty so far after eight names priced almost $15 billion on Tuesday, paying about 5bp in new-issue concessions on deals that were 2.8x covered.

"Tactically speaking, we still see a scenario where this can go to 6%," Fidelity's Salman Ahmed said of the 10-year yield in a Bloomberg TV interview; at that level, "you have to take a pulse check." Fidelity's models are starting to see value around 5%, "but you do need higher yields to compensate for that positive equity/bond correlation, which was working in favor of bonds before."

In commodities, oil has been volatile, with WTI swinging between gains and declines as traders weigh the latest Middle East hostilities and last up around 1.6%, after trading in a $93.97-95.41 range earlier; Brent hovers around $106 within a $105.21-107.15 range. Yemen's Houthis said operations against Saudi airports and oil facilities will continue after hitting Aramco's executive headquarters in Dhahran, while Iranian press reported that a vessel sank in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine. The IEA's monthly report warned that diesel supplies will remain constrained well into 2027, OECD government oil stockpiles fell to the lowest since at least December 1989, and 2026 global oil demand will fall by 2.6m b/d; it also cut its 2027 demand forecast to 104.4m b/d from 105.0m b/d. Dutch TTF gas is firmer but off a €87.44/MWh high. Spot gold is down 0.4% at about $4,144 in a $4,141-4,170 range, silver is down over 1% to its lowest since August, and copper is firmer on the strong Chinese data, though it eased after BHP's Escondida mine reached a preliminary agreement with its union to avoid a strike.

US economic data slate includes MBA mortgage applications (already out: -2.7%) and September CPI (8:30am); the Fed releases its Beige Book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (1:30pm), Goolsbee (3pm) and Bowman (10:55pm). On the earnings front, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Progressive, State Street and Fastenal report before the open, and Anthropic holds its pre-IPO investor day in San Francisco.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz as it seeks to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters. RTRS
• Oil edged higher as attacks on Saudi Aramco's headquarters added to a flare-up in the Middle East conflict, increasing uncertainty over a recovery in Persian Gulf energy flows. BBG
• Yemeni Army Spokesperson said operations towards Saudi airports and oil facilities will continue in the coming days and warned for global shipping companies, civilians and workers to evacuate such airports and firms, as they are legitimate targets. Newsquawk
• Diesel supplies will remain constrained well into 2027 as a result of conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, despite a weaker outlook for oil consumption, while OECD government oil stockpiles fell to the lowest since at least December 1989, the IEA said. BBG
• ASML boosted its outlook and said it's searching for ways to produce more chip-making machines over the next two years to meet soaring AI demand. Shares rose. BBG
• Anthropic is to disclose new revenue numbers at pre-IPO investor day today: CNBC, citing sources
• It is not clear that the Bank of England will need to raise its key rate by a full percentage point in order to tame inflation, as investors expect, Chief Economist Huw Pill said Wednesday. WSJ
• China's trade momentum gained pace in September – driven by strong global tech demand and a pre-holiday shipping rush ahead of the "golden week" break – logging a monthly high for its trade surplus in 2026 and putting the country on course for another record gap this year. SCMP
• China's consumer and producer inflation both accelerated last month, with factory gate prices rising their fastest since 2022. SCMP
• Singapore's central bank unexpectedly held off on further tightening as year-over-year economic growth slowed in the third quarter but beat forecasts. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said Wednesday that its existing policy settings would allow the Singapore dollar to keep strengthening, helping to counter an expected near-term rise in import prices and ease inflationary pressures in 2027. WSJ
• Japan's largest banks and insurance companies have been buying domestic government bonds and selling foreign debt in recent months, in moves that investors say could be early signs of a wider repatriation of capital by the country's institutions. FT
• Russia said it attacked Ukrainian electricity plants in a "massive strike" overnight, further undermining Donald Trump's claim of an energy truce between the two countries. BBG
• Bank of America was fined more than $1.2 billion for money laundering and sanctions violations by US regulators. Equities divisions at five of the largest US banks are on track to deliver more than $66 billion of revenue in the first nine months of the year, roughly $3 billion higher than what's expected from units handling bonds, currencies and commodities. BBG
• Fed Governor Cook's lawyer denounced the Trump administration's new investigation and said she will not be able to attend the hearing on November 5th: The New York Times
• The head of the IMF said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to grow the economy out of its mounting debt and fiscal deficit problems won't work fast enough. BBG
• US President Trump said Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of gas coming off the Alaska pipeline and is to invest USD 4.4 billion in the project, on top of the USD 50bln South Korea committed to invest. Newsquawk
• As we wade into earnings season, we expect corporates to progressively exit blackout ~1-2 days post release. We estimate ~10% will be in open window by the end of the week and 48% by the end of the month. November is the 2nd highest month of corporate repurchases on our desk and will bring back a key source of demand to the marketplace. The full force of corporates won't pick up until almost the end of this month, so the market still has a bit to go before this flow reaches its peak formidability. GIR
• Goldman estimates AI price pressures are boosting core PCE by about 45bp, peaking at around 50bp by end-2026 and falling to 10bp by end-2027, and says "the impact of AI demand on inflation is meaningful but moderate, still comes in large part from mismeasurement, and is likely near its peak." GIR

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region clawed back some of the recent tech-related losses, while participants also digested key releases from China, including inflation and trade figures. ASX 200 declined with the index dragged lower by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector, while sentiment amongst miners was not helped by the indecision in Rio Tinto following its quarterly production update. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 68,000 level as tech stocks got some reprieve from recent selling. KOSPI was among the biggest gainers as tech rebounded from the recent underperformance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were flat as participants digested a slew of data, including stronger-than-expected trade figures and mixed inflation numbers in which CPI printed softer-than-expected, while PPI was hot and showed a faster-than-anticipated acceleration in factory gate prices.

Top Asian News

• China's Customs Vice Minister said in the first three quarters, China's foreign trade has effectively dealt with various external shocks and China's foreign trade has kept good development momentum, while it has shown resilience despite rising international changes, risks and challenges. However, the official also stated that China's trade development still faces many challenges, and for full-year trade, there are many uncertainties globally, including geopolitical conflicts.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are firmer across the board, with outperformance in the AEX (+0.9%), following positive ASML (+1.6%) earnings. The Co. reported Q3 top- and bottom-line beats, while also lifting its Q4 and FY guidance. In the prepared remarks, the CEO highlighted that the planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand and are looking at ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase previously communicated. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Real Estate tops the sector pile, with Tech and Consumer Products & Services following closely behind. The sector laggards include Autos, Insurance and Banks. US equity futures are broadly firmer, with the NQ flat. More bank earnings to report, with BofA on deck. Outside of earnings, US CPI is expected to tick higher to 3.6% (prev. 3.4%). Pointing to UST positioning, traders are short with BofA FMS pointing to this being a crowded trade. A dovish surprise could see a large unwind of this positioning and can also support the equity space. ASML (ASML NA) Q3 2026 (EUR): Basic EPS 12.95 (exp. 10.68), Revenue 11.66bln (exp. 11.58bln). Q4 guidance: Net Sales 14.2-15.2bln (exp. 14bln). FY guidance: Total net sales 44-45bln (exp. 43.6bln, prev. guided 43-45bln).

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Healey is to target online marketplaces in a GBP 1bln tax crackdown, in which the UK plans to make them responsible for collecting tax owed by retailers selling on their platforms, according to The Times.
• UK Chancellor Healey is expected to pay for new giveaways in this month's budget, with higher taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing, according to FT
• UK Chancellor Healey is reportedly making plans to cut the cost of hiring under-25-year-olds at the UK Budget, according to CityAM citing sources.
• The EU Commission proposed a one-year delay to the implementation of specific provisions of the EU Methane Regulation related to importers.
• French National Rally (RN) leader Le Pen sees the extraordinary political events of late-2026 and 2027 as ushering in significant European change, the FT reported. The report added that Le Pen thinks EU Commission President von der Leyen no longer has the confidence of many EU governments and describes the EU attempt to agree a seven-year budget before the French Presidential election as "deeply objectionable". Furthermore, Le Pen has the "will and conviction" to cut France's contribution to the EU budget, adding that the heavy European debt burden is more of a concern than any French-EU clash over fiscal contributions. To end, Le Pen added that she wants the ECB to be able to finance borrowing for priorities such as defence and the energy transition.
• Spanish PM Sanchez is expected to hold an "intense" debate at the European Council over migration, Politico reported citing sources, Sanchez expected to be combative with Italian PM Meloni on the issue.
• Italian PM Meloni said they see a deal with the EU being close on measures to cut the impact of gas costs on electricity prices.

FX

• DXY was initially under mild pressure following on from the dovish remarks from Fed's Williams and as crude benchmarks moved lower in early morning trade. However, a bounce back in oil prices and hawkish commentary from the Houthis has allowed the index to sit around the unchanged mark, within a 102.07 to 102.23 range. To recap that announcement, the group warned that it will continue operations towards Saudi airports/oil facilities in the coming days; it also warned global shipping companies.
• G10s are mixed against the USD, vs initial gains across all majors early doors. The Antipodeans remain the outperformers, on the back of stronger-than-expected Chinese Export data, and with Chinese CPI Y/Y rising from the prior, albeit less than expected. The broader positive risk tone across markets is also facilitating the strength in Antipodeans today. Typical havens (CHF and JPY) are the slight underperformers this morning, given the broader risk tone.
• GBP and EUR are both essentially flat. For the former, UK press have been boosting their coverage ahead of the Autumn Budget (Oct 28th). The Times reported that UK Chancellor Healey is expected to pay for new giveaways in this month's budget, with higher taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing. This will offer investors some confidence on the fiscal side of things. Elsewhere, UK Chancellor Healey is to target online marketplaces in a GBP 1bln tax crackdown, in which the UK plans to make them responsible for collecting tax owed by retailers selling on their platforms.

Central Banks

• Fed's Collins (2028 voter) said tightening monetary policy will help return inflation to 2%, and she expects the Fed to raise interest rates 'a bit further' by the end of the year, while she expects inflation to stay above 2% due to high energy prices. Furthermore, she supported the Fed raising rates at the September meeting and stated the future path of monetary policy in the new year will depend on data.
• ECB's Lagarde said inflation has been rising predominantly, but not exclusively as a result of energy prices, while she noted that they are not seeing any second-round effects yet and they cannot wait until they are in full view, but can anticipate and look for hints. Furthermore, she responded that the primary and first solution lies in French fiscal policy when asked about French debt, and stated that growth is not brilliant, but 1.1% growth in 2026 is not bad.
• ECB's Wunsch said they are probably going to have to hike again, but he's not making any bets because they have so much uncertainty on the energy front and maybe also in AI, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB's Moulin said inflation is mainly due to conflict in the Middle East and energy-related, while he added that inflation expectations by corporates and households in the medium term are well anchored. Moulin also stated that a rise in yields may affect demand and prompt a more moderate response to an inflation shock.
• BoE Governor Bailey said UK companies are focusing intensely on containing costs amid surging energy prices caused by the Iran war, while he reiterated that broader UK inflation pressure from the energy shock has remained subdued so far.
• BoE Chief Economist Pill said he is somewhat more sceptical of market pricing for four rate hikes over the next year.
• Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its FX-based policy settings unchanged, with the rate of appreciation of the policy band maintained (exp. very slight tightening), while it made no changes to the width and level the band is centred. MAS said Singapore's economy is expected to continue expanding steadily in the quarters ahead and core inflation should remain slightly elevated in the immediate quarters ahead, but is projected to ease discernibly from the middle of next year.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer, but only modestly so, in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of US CPI this afternoon, which will be scoured for insight into near-term Fed bets. A cool print could add to the dovish move seen after the September NFP report, and thus further push back on end-2026 tightening bets. Conversely, a hot series would likely see that NFP-driven move unwind. As it stands, that sees USTs three ticks firmer in 104-22 to 104-29+ confines, while yields are lower across the curve with the short-end leading the downside currently.
• EGBs are in fitting, with no real reaction to the energy developments thus far. Instead, the bloc is focused on the fiscal front, as France's Le Pen speaks later and is expected to once again push back on the level of French contribution to the EU budget. Elsewhere, confrontation is expected between Spanish PM Sanchez and Italian PM Meloni, according to Politico, on the migration situation.
• Bunds similarly bid by about 10 ticks, in narrow confines. More generally, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is holding at 137bps and is modestly narrower on the session vs a c. 140bps start. While the BTP-Bund equivalent is around 108bps, and slightly wider as it stands.
• Finally, Gilts see relative outperformance today, supported by the FT report that Chancellor Healey's fiscal giveaways will be funded via taxation and/or spending cuts, rather than via more borrowing. Additionally, BoE Chief Economist Pill pushed back on the extent of market pricing for hikes by end-2027; however, his commentary was more pragmatic on the data-dependent and uncertainty points, rather than a complete dovish reassessment from the known hawk. Firmer by 50 ticks at best, hitting an 84.37 peak, but around 10 ticks shy of Tuesday's best as things stand.
• Germany sells EUR 1.882bln vs Exp. EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bund.
• The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.625% 2030 Gilt: b/c 3.41x (prev. 3.24x), average yield 4.945% (prev. 4.786%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps).
• Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.56x (prev. 3.42x), average yield 2.379% (prev. 2.239%), Tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.04).

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are currently flat/mildly firmer, in what has been a volatile session for the complex. Overnight strength was facilitated by ongoing uncertainty related to the Strait of Hormuz; thereafter, the complex came under mild pressure, but lacked a clear driver. Some modest upticks were then seen after the Houthis warned that further operations against Saudi airports/oil facilities could happen in the coming days. Iranian press then reported that a tanker was sunk in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine; a report which failed to lift prices any further.
• As it stands, WTI and Brent are holding towards the bottom end of their respective USD 93.97-95.41/bbl and USD 105.21-107.15/bbl ranges.
• Dutch TTF is also firmer but off its best level amid the aforementioned Middle Eastern tensions, with winter conditions underpinning demand at a time supply remains uncertain. TTF has fallen from a EUR 87.44/MWh high to sub-EUR 86.00/MWh at the time of writing, but remains well above its USD 84/MWh low.
• Precious metals are subdued, with spot gold posting mild losses, given the broadly positive risk tone. The yellow metal will await US CPI for further direction; it currently trades within a USD 4,141-4,170/oz range.
• Base metals are firmer, with copper benefiting from renewed Chinese demand and stronger-than-expected trade data, alongside the broader recovery in Asian technology stocks. Chinese exports (USD) rose 36.3% Y/Y (exp. 25.5%), while imports increased 31% (exp. 24.5%), although factory-gate inflation accelerated to 5.0% Y/Y (exp. 4.5%). Some mild pressure was seen in Copper after BHP's Escondida mine reached a prelim agreement with its union, to avoid a strike.
• US President Trump said they are going to announce two deals today and stated every permit needed has been granted regarding Alaska LNG, while Trump then stated that Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of gas coming off Alaska pipeline and is to invest USD 4.4 billion in the project, on top of the USD 50bln South Korea committed to invest. Trump later posted that "Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!"
• IEA OMR (Oct): Sees world oil demand falling by 2.6mln BPD in 2026 on Iran war disruption and rising prices (prev. 2.5mln BPD drop).
• BHP's (BHP AT) Escondida mine has reportedly reached a preliminary agreement with Supervisor's Union and is to be ratified by members, with a strike being avoided, according to sources.
• Japan's aluminium premium for Oct-Dec delivery set at USD 255/t, -35% Q/Q, according to sources.

Trade/Tariffs

• UK Business Secretary said the UK will not put tariffs on Chinese vehicles and he will not change trade rules due to EU pressure, according to The Guardian.
• Germany is reportedly set to push the EU to impose caps on additional Chinese imports, according to Bloomberg.
• China bought 8-10 cargoes of US soybeans for December shipment, according to traders.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump said during a rally in Alaska that they've been taking more oil out of the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, while he reiterated that the war with Iran will end soon and that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon. Trump also commented "Wait and see what we do to Iran. We're going to hit them hard. Wait and see what we do to Iran, because we've had enough".
• US Central Command rejected a claim by the IRGC Navy Commander that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control and that any approaching US warships would be sunk, while it stated that "IRGC's navy commander has no navy. American forces and regional partners clearly control the Strait of Hormuz. Just yesterday US forces assisted Gulf partners in shipping more than 19mln barrels of crude oil through the strait."
• A source told the Tehran Times that the assessment is that the US President Trump, under pressure from Israeli President Netanyahu, is seeking a new confrontation in the region, but does not have the capacity to expand or sustain this.
• Iran is reportedly shifting tactics to step up attacks on shipping ahead of US midterms, according to two Iranian officials cited by Reuters.
• IRGC Navy said that a container ship carrying 2,500 containers sank south of the Strait of Hormuz, Sepah News reported.
• Iran and Oman Foreign Ministers held a call and discussed latest regional developments, including developments in Yemen, and examined ways to achieve peace and stability in the region.
• Pakistan's Foreign Minister said they have discussed Bab el-Mandeb with Oman, further efforts need to be made to resolve the current situation.
• Oman Foreign Ministry said that discussions with Iran on Hormuz have concluded, adding that the finalisation depends on US-Iran talks.
• Yemeni Army Spokesperson said operations towards Saudi airports and oil facilities will continue in the coming days and warned for global shipping companies, civilians and workers to evacuate such airports and firms, as they are legitimate targets. The spokesperson confirmed that forces carried out a military operation targeting the Aramco company in Dhahran in the Eastern Province and King Khaled International Airport and the Aramco refinery in Riyadh with a large number of ballistic missiles.
• Houthi official warned that Saudi oil and vital installations will be visited overnight.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• UK PM Burnham will host Ukrainian President Zelensky in Downing Street on Wednesday as Ukraine and its allies scramble to respond to Trump's diesel deal with Putin, while Burnham will tell Zelensky that Britain's support is rock solid with faster delivery of lightweight, multi-role missiles to help Ukraine defend itself, according to Bloomberg.
• A US official said the idea of cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine is being discussed inside the White House, Semafor reported.
• Russian air attack hit energy facilities in Ukraine's capital Kyiv, according to the mayor.

Crypto

• Bitcoin has lacked a clear bias and trades in a USD 83.1k-84.06k range, as it remains contained within Tuesday's range.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00am: Oct 9 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.2% (actual: -2.7%)
• 8:30am: Sep CPI MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30am: Sep Core CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30am: Sep CPI YoY, est. 3.6%, prior 3.4%
• 8:30am: Sep Core CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.4%
• 8:30am: Sep CPI Index NSA, est. 336.625, prior 334.980
• 8:30am: Sep Core CPI Index SA, est. 338.510, prior 337.765
• 8:30am: Sep Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.3%, revised prior 0.4%
• 11:30am: US to sell $75 billion 17-week bills
• 2:00pm: Sep Federal Budget Balance, est. -$30.0b, prior $197.9b

Central Bank Speakers

• 1:30pm: Fed's Barkin Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 2:00pm: Fed Releases Beige Book
• 3:00pm: Fed's Goolsbee Speaks in Interview on Yahoo Finance
• 10:55pm: Fed's Bowman Speaks at Bangkok Economic Festival

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have put in a subdued performance over the last 24 hours, as investors are grappling with various crosscurrents. First, chip stocks sold off yesterday on the back of AI fears, with the Philly semiconductor index (-0.23%) posting a 5th consecutive decline even as the stocks saw an afternoon recovery off the lows. Second, US banks struggled as earnings season got underway. The KBW Banks index closed near the lows of the day down, having fallen -1.39%. And third, inflation fears were still prominent, as the 12-month Brent future (+1.12%) hit a new high for this year of $87.37/bbl. On the plus side French 10yr spreads tightened -4.9bps to bunds. All that before today’s US CPI print, which is expected to be a strong one.

Let's start with US CPI , which occurs just two weeks out from the Fed’s next decision, and a bit of hawkishness has crept back into the market narrative. For instance, market pricing for an October rate hike was back up to 24% yesterday, the highest since October 1, before the underwhelming jobs report (and a day after the initial French stress) led to mounting questions as to whether they actually could deliver back-to-back hikes. But with oil prices still elevated, the speculation has persisted going into the CPI.

This report is likely to be a strong one given the run-up in energy prices over September, and our US economists expect that motor fuel prices were up +9.6% over the month. So they think that would see headline CPI come in at +0.57% on a monthly basis, which would be the strongest month since April, shortly after the Iran conflict began. And in turn, that would take the year-on-year rate back up to +3.6%, its highest since May. To be fair, they think core inflation will be relatively softer, at a monthly pace of just +0.16%, leaving the year-on-year rate at +2.4%. But even so, any surprises either way will help shape the narrative going into the next Fed meeting, as we don’t get the PCE inflation readings (which they officially target) until the day after the next decision.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams yesterday reiterated his support for another 25bp Fed hike this year, but added that “I don’t think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more.” This puts him in line with the median from the September meeting dot plot. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin also spoke yesterday about the need for the Fed to grow more restrictive as he said that “It seems clear to me at this point that these shocks are continuing, and that inflation is enduring, and that doing something about it makes some sense.” He also asserted that the Fed’s goal of 2% was “actually something” that you can hit.

With that backdrop in mind, front-end yields generally moved higher around the world. For instance, the US 2yr Treasury was up +2.1bps on the day to 4.78%, while the 2yr UK yield (+1.7bps) also rose even as 2yr Bunds were unchanged. However, this wasn’t echoed further out the curve, as the risk-off tone put downward pressure at the long end. So the 10yr Treasury yield fell -2.9bps to 5.21%, whilst the 10yr bund yield fell -0.8bps to 3.47%. The one piece of (relative) good news came from France, where the 10yr yield fell -5.8bps to 4.84%, but even that still left the Franco-German 10yr spread at 137bps, clearly above its levels before the stress began a couple of weeks ago.

As all that was going on, it wasn’t the best day for equities either, as AI concerns meant there was a fresh drag from chip stocks and data centers. While chips are just one sector, semiconductors and semiconductor equipment make up over a sixth of the S&P 500, so what happens there can easily drive the overall index. And that was clear once again yesterday, as the Philly semiconductor index (-0.23%) posted a 5th consecutive decline for the first time since July. So that exerted a drag on the overall S&P 500, which was just worse than unchanged (-0.02%) on the day, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 also fell -0.10%. Data centers also lagged yesterday with CoreWeave’s stock down -3.05% alongside Applied Digital (-3.48%) and GDS Holding (-2.60%). CoreWeave, who has been a large issuer in the $HY market this year, saw their 5Y CDS contract close +79bps wider yesterday after having briefly traded above 1000bps intraday.

Otherwise, yesterday also brought the start of US bank earnings, with several names reporting. JPMorgan (-0.86%) reported an unexpected decline in fixed-income trading revenue, as the bank joined all other 24 members of the KBW Banks Index in closing lower on the day. Goldman Sachs (-0.23%) also missed on fixed-income revenue relative to estimates, but saw equity trading beat estimates. The worst performing bank in the index was Citi (-5.60%), who saw its fixed income revenue beat expectations, but its share price struggled despite that.

In the meantime, yesterday also brought a fresh rise in energy prices that led to renewed concerns on inflation. That was particularly clear in Europe, where the front-end natural gas contract (+3.40%) hit a post-2022 high of €87.22/MWh. Admittedly, Brent crude oil (-0.90%) came down slightly to $105.69/bbl, but concern about a longer period of high prices persisted, as the 12-month Brent future (+1.12%) hit a new high for the year of $87.37/bbl – also its highest level since August 2022. So near-term inflation expectations continued to rise, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+7.3bps) back up to 3.59%.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning as semiconductor stocks rebound from the recent selloff, though rising oil prices are capping gains. Across the region, South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.13%) is leading advances, supported by a recovery in chipmakers. Japan’s Nikkei (+0.89%) is also posting solid gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+0.16%) is modestly higher. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.66%) is under pressure, and China’s CSI 300 (-0.31%) is lagging regional peers. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite (+0.01%) is hovering around flat levels. S&P 500 (+0.22%), Nasdaq 100 (+0.24%) and Stoxx (+0.34%) futures are higher.

Earlier this morning, data showed that Chinese consumer inflation remained relatively subdued in September, as holiday-related spending provided only limited support to prices, while producer price inflation accelerated sharply to a more than four-year high. Consumer prices rose +0.9% y/y, coming in just below expectations of +1.0% and slightly above August’s +0.8% increase. In contrast, producer prices climbed +5.0% y/y, exceeding forecasts of +4.4% and accelerating from +3.8% in August. The stronger-than-expected increase in factory-gate prices reflected resilient business demand, rising input costs linked to AI-related investment, and supply disruptions associated with the Middle East conflict, pushing PPI to its highest level since June 2022.

Separately, China’s trade data surprised to the upside in September. Exports surged +36.3% y/y, marking their strongest growth since February, while imports rose +31.0%, the fastest pace since June and an acceleration from August’s +28.2% increase. Both figures comfortably exceeded market expectations of +25.7% for exports and +25.0% for imports.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but we did get a couple of US releases. One was the NFIB’s small business optimism index, which fell a bit more than expected to 97.9 in September (vs. 98.2 expected). Conversely though, the existing home sales for September beat expectations, coming in at an annualised rate of 3.99m (vs. 3.95m expected).

Looking at the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Elderson, Pereira, Escriva, Makhlouf and Schnabel, and the Fed’s Bowman and Barkin. Otherwise, we’ll get the Fed’s Beige Book. Finally, today’s earnings include Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:29

Pope Leo XIV Diagnosed With Cancer As Doctors Remove Part Of His Lung

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Pope Leo XIV was diagnosed with lung cancer following surgery to remove a section of his lung on Oct. 13, the Vatican announced.

Surgeons removed the lower lobe of the pope's right lung during the 90-minute procedure and examined it during the operation.

The pope was diagnosed with "lung adenocarcinoma," a common type of non-small cell lung cancer, after testing confirmed the finding.

Following the operation, Pope Leo asked for dinner and spent time visiting with his secretaries and other staff, according to the Vatican's Holy See press office.

He is expected to stay in the hospital for a week.

The 71-year-old Catholic pontiff was admitted to the Agostino Gemelli University Hospital Tuesday morning. The operation was performed by the thoracic surgery team led by professor Stefano Margaritora and assisted by professor Elisa Meacci, Dr. Maria Teresa Congedo, and Dr. Leonardo Petracca Ciavarella, according to the Vatican press office.

The lower lobe of his lung was removed using a video-assisted technique, the Vatican reported.

"An intraoperative histological examination confirmed the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma, as suspected from the preoperative examinations," the doctors said.

Pope Leo awoke normally after surgery and, after a brief observation, he was taken to his room on the 10th floor for recovery Tuesday afternoon.

"The doctors said it was successful and there were no complications," the Vatican said.

The lung tissue removed during surgery will undergo more testing in the coming days. Tests done before the operation showed doctors where and how to operate, officials said.

The Vatican planned to update the public again Wednesday on any developments from the laboratory or with the pope's condition.

The pontiff wrote about his upcoming surgery on Sunday. He said doctors had found a small, localized nodule on his lung that was detected early. He decided to undergo the procedure following their advice, he said.

"I thank you for your spiritual closeness and entrust myself to your prayers," Pope Leo wrote in a social media post.

Prayers for the first American pontiff and Chicago native poured in Tuesday afternoon following the announcement by the Holy See.

"We ask the faithful to continue praying for Pope Leo's recovery and for the doctors and staff caring for him. We also hold in prayer all who are living with cancer, their families, and those who care for them," the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops posted on X.

Archbishop of New York Ronald Hicks asked for prayers as the pope recovered.

"We thank God that the surgery on Pope Leo was, by all accounts, successful, and that he continues his recovery and recuperation," Hicks said in an X post. "I know that I join with people from all corners of [the New York diocese], across the country, and around the world in keeping the Holy Father in our prayers."

U.S. Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), son of civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, said his community was wishing the pope well.

"Pope Leo XIV is one of our own, a Chicago kid who carried the values of our neighborhoods all the way onto the world stage, and today our whole city is wishing him strength and a full recovery," Jackson posted on X. "Chicago is with you."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his wife, Jeanette, said they were "united in prayer" for the pontiff after hearing of his cancer diagnosis.

"May the Lord give him strength and the Holy Spirit guide the medical professionals taking care of the Holy Father," Rubio said in a post.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:20

Bank Of America Tumbles After Trading Miss Across The Board

Last night we said Bank of America would use its brand new and "unexpected" $1.2 billion (non tax-deductible) money-laundering penalty as cover for an ugly quarter. This morning it tried to do just that.

Just hours after Treasury fined the bank more than $1.21 billion for willfully failing to report over $5 billion in suspicious transactions (and for having "prioritized its revenues" over compliance), BofA reported Q3 results that missed almost everywhere that matters: FICC missed, equities missed, total revenue missed, and adjusted EPS missed. As we put it last night, it was "perfect timing for tomorrow's Adjusted EPS to miss net of 'one time almost criminal items'" and, sure enough, the bank's own release dutifully explains that "other net loss of $1.4 billion included a non-tax-deductible regulatory settlement charge of $1.2 billion."

The problem for BofA is that the fine accounts for the gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS, and nothing more. GAAP EPS was $0.91; strip out the 17 cents from the penalty and you get adjusted EPS of $1.08, which still missed the $1.10 consensus. In other words, even the "clean" number was a miss.

With that in mind, here is the scorecard for Q3:

• Adjusted EPS $1.08, missing estimate of $1.10; GAAP EPS $0.91
• Revenue net of interest expense $29.96 billion, missing estimate of $30.76 billion
• Trading revenue excluding DVA $5.06 billion, missing estimate of $5.41 billion
  • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.55 billion, missing estimate of $2.86 billion
  • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.51 billion, missing estimate of $2.63 billion
• Net interest income $16.45 billion, beating estimate of $16.24 billion (NII FTE $16.61 billion)
• Net interest yield 2.16%, beating estimate of 2.11%
• Wealth & investment management total revenue $7.12 billion, beating estimate of $7.06 billion
• Investment banking revenue $1.80 billion, beating estimate of $1.77 billion
  • Advisory fees $471 million, missing estimate of $483.3 million
  • Debt underwriting revenue $958 million, beating estimate of $920 million
  • Equity underwriting revenue $395 million, missing estimate of $422.5 million
• Provision for credit losses $1.27 billion, below estimate of $1.49 billion
• Net charge-offs $1.35 billion, below estimate of $1.44 billion
• Compensation expenses $10.97 billion, estimate $11.08 billion
• Non-interest expenses $19.72 billion; efficiency ratio 65.8%

Visually, the misses cluster precisely where the bank's Wall Street peers made their money this week: trading and capital markets.

Balance sheet metrics were mixed, with capital the weak spot:

• Return on average equity 9.41%; return on average assets 0.79%
• Return on average tangible common equity 12.6% (14.9% adjusted, vs 16% in Q1)
• Basel III CET1 ratio, advanced approach, 12%, missing estimate of 12.4%
• Standardized CET1 ratio 10.9%, missing estimate of 11.2%
• Loans $1.25 trillion, beating estimate of $1.23 trillion
• Total deposits $2.04 trillion, in line with estimates

Here is how BofA itself presents the quarter, with the "charge impact" row helpfully doing the heavy lifting. Also it's remarkable how quick Bank of America managed to flow through the "surprise" $1.2 billion charge not only through its financial statements but its presentations too just 12 hours later...

Note the bottom box: "Moderated capital markets activity"... followed by "Record year-to-date sales and trading revenue." Both are technically true but only one of them describes Q3.

The Trading Desk That Missed The Party

On Tuesday, JPMorgan and Goldman both stumbled in FICC but more than made up for it in equities: JPM's stock traders brought in $4.95 billion vs a $4.47 billion estimate, while Goldman's equities desk posted $6.44 billion, crushing the $5.09 billion consensus. Citi's bond traders, meanwhile, had their best third quarter in at least a decade according to Bloomberg.

BofA managed to miss on both sides of the desk. FICC revenue ex-DVA tumbled 17% YoY to $2.55 billion, which the bank blamed on "mortgages, municipals, and credit," a far uglier drop than JPM's 4% decline or Goldman's ~1% dip. Equities rose 10% YoY to $2.51 billion, which BofA calls a "record 3Q"... and which still came in $120 million short of what analysts expected.

Sequentially, it looks even worse: total sales and trading revenue ex-DVA dropped 29% from Q2's $7.16 billion to $5.06 billion, with FICC down 28% QoQ and equities down 31%. As a result, Global Markets net income collapsed by $1.4 billion QoQ to $1.2 billion, return on allocated capital plunged from 20% in Q2 to just 9%, and the segment's efficiency ratio blew out to 72% from 56% (chart source BofA).

Which brings us to Goldman's bank earnings preview from Tuesday morning. The bank's desk listed the key question for BAC as "Any NII upside updated for the rate curve and can this flow into operating leverage? Trading outlook relative to peers." We now have the answer to the second part: dead last. And Goldman bank analyst Richard Ramsden, who has a Buy on the stock, made the bull case in his Large Cap Banks preview (available here for pro subs) in part on BofA's lower sensitivity to Wall Street's revenue cycle:

We remain constructive on BAC's NII trajectory through 2026E/27E, and view the high end of the 2026 guidance as achievable with potential upside as well, especially driven by a better NIM outlook. Further, given BAC's asset sensitivity, and less exposure to capital markets revenue risk, we see an increasingly attractive top-line growth story.

Diversification at its finest: the less-exposed business is the one that missed by 6.5%.

Dealmaking: "Pipelines Remain Robust" (Fees, Less So)

Investment banking was the one capital-markets line that technically beat, with fees of $1.80 billion edging out the $1.77 billion estimate thanks to debt underwriting ($958 million vs $920 million expected). But the trend is hardly flattering: total IB fees fell 11% YoY and 16% QoQ, with advisory down 19% from a year ago to $471 million and equity underwriting short of estimates at $395 million. BofA's slide promises that "investment banking pipelines remain robust," which is what every bank says right before the fees fail to show up (chart source BofA).

This fits with Goldman's preview framing of whether Q3 was "just an air pocket or a signal of a more prolonged slowdown to come" as rising yields weigh on deal activity. With the 10Y knocking on 5% and Warsh's Fed eyeing hikes, we know which way we'd lean.

NII Delivers, Expenses Eat It

The good news, and the reason the stock isn't down even more, is net interest income. NII rose 8% YoY to $16.4 billion ($16.6 billion FTE), beating estimates, and the net interest yield jumped 15bps from a year ago to 2.16%, ahead of the 2.11% expected. Rising rates finally work in BofA's favor: the bank estimates a parallel +100bp shift in the curve would add $1.4 billion to NII over the next 12 months, while a -100bp shift would cost it $1.9 billion. Some $2.0 billion of the NII came from Global Markets, up from $1.5 billion a year ago (chart source BofA).

The bad news is the other half of Goldman's question: whether NII upside "can flow into operating leverage." Not this quarter. Total revenue rose $0.9 billion, or 3%, YoY. Adjusted noninterest expense (i.e. excluding the fine) rose $1.2 billion, or 7%, to $18.5 billion, "driven by revenue-related expenses and investments in technology and brand." Costs grew more than twice as fast as revenue, pushing the adjusted efficiency ratio up to 62% from 60% a year ago; including the penalty, it hit 66% (chart source BofA).

Good news for shareholders: compensation expense of $10.97 billion came in slightly below the $11.08 billion estimate. Traders who missed by 6.5% might see it differently (at least the one who aren't replaced by a chatbot).

Capital: Paying Out More Than It Earns

The CET1 miss deserves more attention than it will get. The standardized CET1 ratio fell 37bps QoQ to 10.9%, below the 11.2% estimate, as CET1 capital dropped $3 billion to $198 billion while risk-weighted assets rose $32 billion to $1.82 trillion. Meanwhile, BofA paid $2.2 billion in dividends and repurchased another $6.0 billion of stock, a total of $8.2 billion returned in a quarter when it earned $6.9 billion. The share count is down 5.6% in a year to 6.92 billion, which flatters per-share numbers. That math only works for so long, and Goldman already flagged "less excess capital... and higher rates impacting AOCI" as a reason buybacks could slow at the money centers.

Credit And The Consumer: The One Clean Spot

Asset quality was the bright spot. Provision for credit losses dropped to $1.27 billion, well below the $1.49 billion estimate, while net charge-offs fell to $1.35 billion from $1.41 billion in Q2, below the $1.44 billion expected. BofA released a net $80 million of reserves, and the credit card charge-off rate improved to 3.22%. Commercial reservable criticized exposure dropped to $19.9 billion, with the criticized rate of 2.49% the lowest since 4Q19. One small blemish: consumer loans 30+ days past due rose to $4.58 billion from $4.49 billion a year ago, even as 90+ day delinquencies fell (chart source BofA).

"Asset quality continued to improve and liquidity and capital remained strong," CFO Alastair Borthwick said. The first part is true; see above for the second.

As for the consumer, BofA's spending data still shows a population that is spending, if mostly on things it can't avoid. Combined credit and debit card spend rose 8% YoY to $266 billion, while year-to-date card spending on gas is up 16%, more than double the 7% increase in total spend, courtesy of the Iran war oil shock. That is the same 16% pace the bank flagged for March back in April, so six months later the pain at the pump hasn't eased (chart source BofA).

Bottom Line

Six months ago, BofA jumped on record equity trading revenue and a higher NII forecast. This quarter, NII once again did its job, but the trading desks missed on both FICC and equities in a quarter when their competitors' stock traders printed money, costs ran more than twice as fast as revenue, and capital ratios slipped below expectations as buybacks outran earnings.

And then there is the fine. Management will spend the 8:30am call talking about the "$1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge," which is a convenient thing to talk about since it is excluded from the adjusted numbers. But the adjusted numbers missed too. As we said last night, the dollar amount was never the real story: the bank that Treasury says "prioritized its revenues" over compliance (a problem it first disclosed back in October 2024) just reported a quarter where the revenues didn't show up either. And with the independent lookback and reviews still ahead, this is unlikely to be the last "one-time" item.

BAC shares were down 4.2% premarket (including the after-hours slide on the fine), after already dropping 1.2% on Tuesday, putting the stock around $51.70, roughly 20% below its 52-week high of $65.22. Goldman's Ramsden still has a Buy on the name. After today, the NII story is the only part of that thesis that is left.

The full BofA Q3 presentation is below (pdf link)

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:11

Saudi Arabia Planning To Bypass Hormuz With Massive Expansion Of Oil Pipeline

Saudi Arabia plans to lift the East-West pipeline's capacity to 10 million barrels per day within two to three years, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, as the kingdom works to keep its crude moving around a closed Strait of Hormuz.

The line has become Riyadh's main export route. Saudi Arabia has used it to reroute around 4 million barrels per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Zawya reported. Drone attacks that Saudi Arabia blamed on Iraqi militias forced the kingdom to shut the pipeline on September 11.

Flows were back to 5.8 million bpd by October 6, the minister said, still 1.2 million short of the line's current 7 million maximum. ZeroHedge earlier tracked the pipeline hitting a record 7 million bpd.

As OilPrice.com notes further, the 740-mile-long pipeline, also known as Petroline, has a maximum capacity of 7 million bpd at present.

Despite the ongoing conflict and disruptions, Saudi Arabia plans to add 3 million bpd to the East-West pipeline, which became a lifeline for Saudi oil exports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Thanks to the pipeline, Saudi Arabia managed to divert most of its crude oil exports away from the choked Strait of Hormuz and ships increasingly larger volumes via the Yanbu port on the Red Sea.

The route to bypass Hormuz is not without risks, either. The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen vowed in July to halt Saudi shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is the shortest route for Saudi oil supply from Yanbu to reach Asian markets.

Still, Prince Abdulaziz on Monday touted the energy resilience of the Kingdom, telling the WPC Energy Congress that energy resilience "must also be measured by the ability to maintain, repair, reroute, substitute and recover. Above all, it must be measured by the ability to continue delivering under pressure."

Saudi Aramco's chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, said at the same event that "In alignment with the Ministry of Energy, we are studying additional crude export routes, and working on expanding overseas storage."

Aramco's top executive added that the company is "also focused on mitigating risks and limiting damage, using frontier technologies to inspect facilities and accelerate restoration."

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:05

Trump Announces "Massive" Greenland Oil Exploration Plans

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

"Massive" oil, gas, and minerals exploration will soon begin in Greenland, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, claiming that the territory has enormous resources of readily available oil.

Last month, the United States, Denmark, and Greenland signed an agreement to strengthen defense and security in the Arctic and North Atlantic, easing months of tensions over President Trump's frequent threats to seize the Danish territory. The agreement reaffirmed Danish sovereignty and the right to self-determination of Greenland residents.

"Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!," President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday.

"There are Experts that are saying that the amount of easily available Oil is far greater than that of almost any land, anywhere in the World and, even more importantly, from a Security Purpose in the Defense and Offense of both the United States of America, and Europe, is second to none."

The U.S. President did not reveal any timelines of the start of oil, gas, and minerals exploration.

U.S. Greenland Energy Company has said it will fund 100% of the costs associated with up to two exploration wells in Greenland, designed to delineate the hydrocarbon potential of a project in the Jameson Land Basin.

The company this summer postponed its planned oil drilling campaign in East Greenland until winter 2027 after project equipment was brought ashore without prior approval by the government of Greenland.

Greenland has seen oil exploration since the 1970s involving major oil firms, including ExxonMobil, Shell, and Eni. None has resulted in a major discovery.

Greenland is estimated to hold oil and gas resources, as well as critical minerals and rare earth elements.

In practice, Greenland's resources are extremely expensive and hard to extract. The lack of energy infrastructure or any processing capabilities puts in doubt the feasibility and economic rationale of trying to mine rare earths and critical minerals, for example, analysts say.

"Despite its hydrocarbon and critical mineral potential, Greenland is not Venezuela 2.0.," Wood Mackenzie's top analysts say, noting that the large island is remote, inhospitable, underexplored, difficult to explore, and very high cost.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 07:45

SpaceX Reportedly Caps Starlink Speed As Kiev Defies Trump's Calls To Halt Refinery Strikes

Reports say that SpaceX has imposed a movement-speed restriction on certain Starlink terminals used in Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent cited presidential adviser Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, who wrote on social media that the measure took effect overnight and applies to the StarShield "military service package," setting a threshold of 100 miles per hour (about 160 kilometers per hour).

"I confirm that (Starlink owner) SpaceX implemented speed restrictions on Starlink terminals while in motion last night. Currently, the restriction applies to the StarShield 'military service package' and limits speed to 100 miles per hour (160 kilometers per hour)," Beskrestnov said in a post on social media.

The local outlet noted, "Ukraine relies on Starlink for several military applications including operating its mid-strike campaign in Russian-occupied Ukraine, as well as interceptor drones that defend against Russia's new jet-powered attack drones."

"The consequences are already being felt in the field. Since the start of the day alone, a drone unit operating within the 7th Corps' area of responsibility in the Huliaipole sector has had to cancel a number of missions due to these connectivity issues," Ukraine's 7th Air Assault Corps told the outlet.

Western media, such as the Financial Times, said Ukraine was "blindsided by Starlink restrictions and intelligence gaps during Russian attack."

However, stated clearly in Starlink's Acceptable Use Policy:

AUP VIOLATION EXAMPLES. You agree not to do, or attempt to do, any of the following in connection with your use of the Services or Starlink Kit: (1) remotely controlling or piloting any aerial drone or unmanned vehicle, unless otherwise contractually permitted by SpaceX; (2) engaging in any military activity other than for purposes of supporting leisure and quality-of-life programs for military service members approved by SpaceX ("Morale, Welfare and Recreation");

The reported restrictions come amid tensions over Kiev's strikes on Russian refineries despite White House requests to halt the strikes. Those attacks, alongside disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has sparked a global refining crisis and sent diesel at the pump - worldwide - soaring and has complicate things for the Trump administration ahead of the US midterms. The timing raises questions about a defiant Kiev (read here) and whether those attacks on refineries were politically motivated to affect the outcome of the US midterms. 

@zerohedge I agree, time for Ukraine to get a new leader

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 11, 2026

There was an overnight report from Semafor:  

Ukraine's leader said he received no advance warnings from Western partners before a Russian missile strike on Tuesday, days after Washington threatened to stop intelligence sharing in a bid to force Kyiv to abide by an energy ceasefire. US President Donald Trump said Tuesday, "We are sharing intel."

Last week, Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, along with a deal with Moscow to temporarily lift US sanctions and allow Russian diesel imports to ease supply pressures and bring down record-high fuel prices ahead of the midterms. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 07:20

"NO TURKS - ALL OUT" - CDU Candidate With Turkish Background Allegedly Faked Hate Crime Attack

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix,

Prosecutors have opened an investigation into a local Christian Democratic Union (CDU) mayoral candidate of Turkish origin who is accused of staging a racially motivated attack on his own car days before an election he lost badly.

While running for a position in the CDU, Baris Karabacak allegedly committed a hate crime hoax.

The Itzehoe public prosecutor's office is examining allegations that Baris Karabacak faked the incident, according to the German newspaper Bild. Authorities obtained and executed a search warrant against the politician and seized at least one electronic device.

Karabacak, an entrepreneur who had previously served as chair of the Uetersen city council, was the CDU's candidate in the Sept. 27 mayoral election in the town of roughly 18,000 people in the Pinneberg district of Schleswig-Holstein. He finished a distant third with 10.7 percent of the vote. Incumbent Mayor Dirk Woschei of the Social Democrats was reelected in the first round with 51.3 percent; independent candidate Marvin Schöpp received 38.1 percent.

A few days before the vote, local media including public broadcaster NDR reported that the windows of Karabacak's car had been smashed overnight. A campaign flyer bearing an added message in all capital letters reading "NO TURKS - ALL OUT" was left behind. Police initially investigated the matter as possible incitement to hatred.

At the time, state CDU General Secretary Lukas Kilian publicly backed his party colleague and expressed pride in the CDU's diversity. Woschei also offered solidarity, stating that political competition must be conducted with arguments and that "violence, hate and racist messages are an attack on the city's democratic culture."

Kilian's tone has since shifted sharply. He told Bild he was "stunned" by the new allegations.

"Anyone who fakes a racist crime abuses the solidarity of many people and mocks the victims of real racism. There is no place for that in the CDU," Kilian said. The state party has said that if the accusations are confirmed, Karabacak will be asked to resign his membership; failure to do so would trigger expulsion proceedings.

The case remains under investigation, and no charges have been filed. Karabacak has not publicly commented on the prosecutor's probe.

The episode has drawn attention in a town where Karabacak had earlier faced internal party and council criticism over his leadership style before resigning as city council chair earlier in 2026 and then securing the CDU's mayoral nomination.

Another hate crime hoax proven false in court

This is also notably not the first alleged hate crime hoax from a German politician. In 2023, Remix News reported on Manoj Subramaniam, a 33-year-old former local Green councilor in the German town of Erkelenz, who claimed he had been subjected to sustained acts of harassment by anonymous right-wing extremists. He showed police evidence of the abuse he had received, which included a threatening letter with a razor blade inserted and a swastika drawn onto his vehicle in red paint.

The case made national headlines last year with several prominent politicians offering their solidarity with Subramaniam for the alleged abuse he had received.

"Right-wing extremists are threatening political volunteers to silence them. Thank you, Manoj Subramaniam, for not being silent and raising your voice," stated Lamya Kaddor, a member of the Bundestag.

Federal police took protective measures for the politician's safety, and an intensive investigation was initiated by state security, all at considerable cost to the taxpayer. The only issue, however, was that Subramaniam had made it all up.

"The defendant actually wrote this note himself," revealed Justus Wassenberg, the press spokesman for the public prosecutor's office.

It transpired that Subramaniam had also drawn SS runes and a swastika onto the doorbell panel outside his house.

Subramaniam subsequently resigned from his position as a local councilor, and the Erkelenz District Court issued the disgraced politician a penalty order of €3,600 for faking criminal offenses, a fine he appealed.

He reportedly cried during his trial when his appeal failed.

2026 firebombing not an anti-Semitic attack after all

The investigation into the early 2026 firebombing of Brandenburg Antisemitism Commissioner Andreas Büttner's home stunned the public.

While the case was initially treated as an Islamist or antisemitic hate crime, the German Public Prosecutor General's Office now identifies two men from Büttner's "own circle," which belongs to the left, as the primary suspects.

One of the men is also linked to the threatening letter sent to Büttner. Meanwhile, Büttner said he was shocked and described it as the biggest betrayal of his life. He also stated that if the two were responsible, the act had nothing to do with antisemitism in his view. So far, the prosecutor's office has continued to list Büttner as a witness or injured party, not a suspect. News outlets have highlighted that there was a €3,000 transfer from Büttner to one of the men shortly before the incident, which he called a loan, and other joint activities. These details prompted public questions and speculation in some outlets about possible staging or a "false-flag" element, but no official finding has supported the claim that Büttner ordered or knew of the act in advance. The case still reportedly remains under investigation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 06:20

Pump-Pain Squeezes Convenience Store Spending: Citi Says "More Subdued" Mood Among Beverage Companies

Our reporting this year has shown how skyrocketing gasoline and diesel prices at the pump are reshaping consumer spending habits at convenience stores and gas stations. 

As fuel costs take up a larger share of household budgets, consumers trade down, cut back on discretionary purchases like energy drinks and snacks, or skip them altogether. Some also buy less fuel, putting pressure on both pump volumes and in-store sales.

Citi beverages analyst Filippo Falorni published a new report on Friday, reporting back to clients after attending the 2026 NACS Show in Las Vegas earlier this week. He warned that the overall mood among beverage companies was more subdued because of softer traffic and declining consumption, driven by higher fuel costs.

"Overall, the tone was more subdued than last year given softer traffic/consumption levels in the channel amid higher gas prices and lower-income consumer pressure," Falorni wrote in the note.

He pointed out that Citi-tracked convenience-channel dollar sales fell 2.1% in the third quarter from the same quarter a year earlier.

Volumes declined 5.1% in the quarter.

More indepth.

The convenience channel has materially underperformed the broader retail market since the Iran conflict began, Falorni said.

The slowdown increases exposure for energy-drink and beer producers that rely heavily on convenience stores. The channel accounted for roughly 63% of Monster Beverage's measured retail sales and 45% of Celsius Holdings' sales over the past year. For Constellation Brands, Boston Beer, and Molson Coors, the shares were about 66%, 60%, and 52%, respectively.

At the beverage-company level, the analyst said the convenience-store channel began underperforming in the second quarter, around the time we pointed out that consumer pullback was hitting gas stations and quick retailers (read here & here).

Despite those pressures, Citi remained optimistic about energy drinks, pointing to expected shelf-space gains, new customers, pricing contributions and a pipeline of products focused on protein and hydration.

Latest developments in the space, per the analyst:

Energy Drinks: MNST highlighted a solid innovation pipeline, which seems more focused on quality over quantity – incl. the Monster Protein Energy line, which will feature 30g of protein + 160mg caffeine in 12-oz cans (Vanilla & Chocolate flavors), planned for Mar-2027, plus flavor extensions across Ulta, Juice, Bang, FLRT. CELH showcased its Winter 2026 Spritz Vibe LTO – a sparkling Shirley Temple-inspired offering coming out this month. It also featured its new Celsius Energy + Hydration line (1Q'27 rollout) – 16-oz cans with 670mg electrolytes + 200mg caffeine, in 4 fizz-free flavors: Blue Freeze, Orange, Lemon Lime, Fruit Punch. Details & pictures inside.

Soft Drinks: KO plans to test-launch prebiotic sodas across its Coke Zero, Sprite Zero, & Fresca lines (each w/ 6g fiber) with regional testing planned for NY, NJ & PA in late Oct. It also featured new trademark Coca-Cola flavor launches expected in '27, incl Cherry Lime (Feb' 27) & Strawberry Float (summer' 27) as well as a new Fairlife Core Power Banana flavor (Jan' 27). PEP is introducing Pepsi Strawberry Shortcake, a new Pepsi flavor to launch in Feb '27, Gatorade Gatorlyte Longer Lasting, a new high-electrolyte RTD beverage/powder line (Feb' 27), and two new poppi lines, Lift & Chill, launching in '27. KDP showcased Dr Pepper Ice Cream Float, a new permanent flavor launching nationwide in Feb '27. For KDP's partner brands, Bloom will roll out three new flavors: Strawberry Shortie (Oct' 26) + Cotton Candy & Lemon Freezie (Jan '27).

Beer: TAP is planning a 2027 national launch of its non-alc Coors 0.0 product following a soft launch across select Northeast US markets in May '26. STZ featured its higher-ABV Modelo Chelada Suprema line with new 12- & 24-ct variety packs, with core Modelo Chelada adding a Pepino y Limón flavor next year. STZ also showcased smaller brands, incl. Right Hook (a new hard punch brand launching Mar. 27), Wildish Pop (a new vodka-based hard soda w/ 4.5% ABV & 100 calories), Austin Cocktails (brand refresh planned in 27/new flavors), Good Peels (new 12-ct variety packs and expansion into more states), & the recently acquired SpikedAde. SAM featured LYTT, a line of 15% ABV malt-based beverages launched in May.

How beverage companies have performed so far this year. 

If consumers really don't want to give up their energy drink habits, they can buy in bulk at Costco, where Kirkland Signature energy drinks cost about 70 cents per can.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 05:45

British Prime Minister Says Russia Meddled In 2016 Referendum On Leaving EU

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said that Russia interfered in the UK's 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union, and he warned voters in France and Germany about efforts the Kremlin may be making to influence their political systems.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham in London on Sept. 21, 2026. Jonathan Brady/Pool Photo via AP

Burnham, who last month said that the UK could consider rejoining the EU, is the first British prime minister to publicly say there was evidence of Russian interference in the Brexit referendum, in which voters narrowly voted to leave the bloc.

"I asked the question coming to Downing Street, was there interference in the 2016 referendum from Russia? And I've had the clear answer that yes, there was," he said on the podcast "The Rest Is Politics," in an episode that aired on Oct. 11.

"And these things are important now to put clearly on the record, and I believe help voters in Germany and France understand that some of this politics is instigated via our enemies, namely Russia."

He did not elaborate on how he believed Russia interfered and gave no evidence to support his claim.

He said people had not been sufficiently informed about the extent to which bad actors sought to disrupt the political process.

Britons voted 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the EU in June 2016, triggering a negotiation process that absorbed British politicians for several years. The UK finally left the EU on Jan. 31, 2020.

Burnham Calls AfD 'Threat'

Burnham said the UK had a "decade of drift and division" since Brexit.

He also said he told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz last week that the UK would support him to take on the "threat" he faced from the right-wing Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party.

"[Merz] was saying to me that the AfD are clearly linked to Russia, funded I believe," Burnham said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the AfD for comment but did not receive a response.

After a meeting in Berlin, Burnham's office said in an Oct. 8 statement that the UK and Germany were launching a partnership to counter sabotage and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

A British official on Oct. 12 told Sky News presenter Sophy Ridge that Russia had attempted to interfere in the referendum but had not succeeded.

"They do attempt to interfere in our processes, have attempted to interfere in a whole number of them, and of course, it's not just Russia, it's other countries, too," British Foreign Office minister Stephen Doughty said.

'Insulting' to Brexit Voters

Britain Unbound, which describes itself as a nonpartisan campaign group for a sovereign and independent UK, said Burnham's comments were an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the referendum result.

"There is no good reason to believe that Russian intervention influenced the outcome of the referendum in 2016," the group wrote in an Oct. 11 post on X. "It is also insulting to suggest that voters were so easily duped."

The UK Parliament's Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee conducted an inquiry into alleged disinformation and fake news between 2017 and 2019, which examined evidence of possible Russian interference in the Brexit referendum.

The committee said in its report that the government has not seen evidence of "successful use of disinformation by foreign actors, including Russia, to influence UK democratic processes," citing the government's response to a previous report.

"It is not that they have not tried, but we have not seen evidence of that material impact," then-Culture Minister Jeremy Wright told the committee.

Then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the BBC in November 2019 that no evidence existed of Russian interference in UK politics. Johnson backed the campaign to leave the EU.

Burnham, like most Labour Party lawmakers, backed the campaign to stay in the EU.

In July 2020, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russia had sought to influence voters in the Brexit referendum.

"Russia has never interfered in the electoral processes of any country in the world, not the United States, not Britain, nor any other countries," Peskov said.

The Russian Embassy in London has not commented on Burnham's comments, but on Oct. 9, it criticized the British government's latest sanctions.

"Each new list is meant to demonstrate London's resolve, but in reality highlights that its course is ineffective and pointless," it said in a post on X.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomes British Prime Minister Andy Burnham with military honors at the Chancellery in Berlin on Oct. 8, 2026. Lisi Niesner/Reuters Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 05:00

From EVs To Attack Drones: Battery Factory Conversion Echoes WWII Industrial Mobilization

Amprius Technologies has secured a $75 million US Department of War grant to convert an EV battery production line into advanced batteries for Group 1, 2, and 3 military drones. The award marks another example of civilian manufacturing capacity being converted toward defense production as the US expands its drone industrial base. 

EV blog Electrek reports: 

Amprius Technologies received a $15 million order for its innovative lithium-ion cells from an anonymous customer back in 2024, all the company would say was that the buyer was a, "leading Unmanned Aircraft System manufacturer." 

We still don't know who that mysterious customer might have been, but we know this: there's enough demand for Amprius' energy-dense batteries that DoW is willing to spend $75 million to draft a civilian factory originally designed to build zero-emission electric cars into drone duty.

The conversion reflects a shift in capital toward defense demand. As EV demand softens, underused battery production lines offer a way to expand military drone output without building new factories from the ground up. For the DoW, repurposing existing facilities could shorten the path to ramp up drone production. This approach echoes World War II industrial mobilization: redirecting civilian manufacturing capacity to meet military needs.

Related: 

• GM Delivers Patriot Missile Parts To Lockheed As Rearmament Supercycle Nears
• Volkswagen May Convert German Auto Plant Into Iron Dome War Factory

Here's more from the EV blog:

The grant itself will see the conversion of an existing US-based electric vehicle battery production line operated by, "a major South Korean manufacturer" through a grant awarded through DoW's Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment Program (IBAS). 

IBAS provides funds to shore up domestic manufacturing capabilities it deems critical to national security and defense, with the official copy explaining that, "the primary objective of this award is to establish high-volume, commercially viable US manufacturing for advanced battery systems that power unmanned aerial systems – Group 1, 2, and 3 drones."

The announcement comes shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth revealed earlier this month the creation of Autonomous Warfare Command, dubbed "AutoWarCom," to accelerate the DoW's purchases across all categories of drones, robotics, and AI to prepare the military for warfare.

To do this, the US supply chain must scale up to produce millions of one-way attack drones, with components made domestically or in conflict-free areas. In other words, the US must source drone engines, blades, batteries, sensors, and other components outside China.

As Amprius CEO Tom Stepien explained, "This DoW grant is intended to establish a primary source of domestic, NDAA-compliant battery production." He added, "Our technology, combined with the US manufacturing prowess of our South Korean manufacturing partner, positions us to accelerate adoption of standardized, high-performance pouch cells in a fast-growing market."

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 04:15

Guess Which European Country Is Tolerating Child Marriages?

Authored by - Remix News Staff - via Remix News,

A parliamentary inquiry by Alternative for Germany (AfD) lawmakers in the German state of Baden-Württemberg has brought to light official data showing that authorities have recorded 358 so-called child marriages since April 2012, with courts formally annulling only eight of them between 2018 and 2024.

The figures, released in early October 2026 in response to questions from state parliament members Nikolaos Boutakoglou and Emely Knorr, have drawn sharp attention to the prevalence of underage marriages - overwhelmingly involving people from migrant backgrounds - and the limited number of legal interventions.

Among the annulled cases was the 2020 marriage of an 11-year-old Iraqi girl to a 17-year-old Iraqi boy. In 2018, authorities annulled the marriage of a 14-year-old Afghan girl to a 30-year-old Afghan man. Two further annulments occurred in 2024: one involving a 16-year-old German girl and a 25-year-old Pakistani man, and another between a 16-year-old Syrian girl and a 27-year-old Syrian man, according to Welt newspaper.

The other annulled marriages involved individuals from Afghanistan, Romania, Moldova, Croatia, Serbia, and elsewhere. The state Interior Ministry stated that no court proceedings for annulment were pending at the time of its reply.

The remaining approximately 350 cases, documented by the government of Tübingen were closed under the category of "other resolutions." Possible reasons cited by the government include the death of a partner, a decision to forgo annulment, or a subsequent marriage abroad.

These files still include striking examples of very young brides. In 2020, a 12-year-old Afghan girl was recorded as married to an 18-year-old man. In 2022, a 12-year-old Syrian girl was married to a 28-year-old Syrian man, and in 2023 a 12-year-old Afghan girl to a 21-year-old Afghan man. Multiple cases involving 13- and 14-year-old girls also appear in the data, and some reports note nine marriages in which the girl was under the age of 14 at the time of the union.

The demographic pattern is pronounced. Men from Syria accounted for 132 of the recorded cases, nearly 40 percent, followed by nationals of Bulgaria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

Child marriages between two German citizens made up only about 0.3 percent of the total. It is also unclear if these German citizens have a migration background, but given the pattern seen among foreigners, it is very probable.

Most of the 358 cases date from 2015 onward when the migration crisis truly began to grow in Germany. Boutakoglou highlighted the figures on social media, stating: "Almost without exception, every child marriage in Baden-Württemberg since 2017 can be traced back to mass migration! Nearly 40% of the child marriages were contracted between Syrians, while child marriages between two Germans account for only 0.3%."

Fast ausnahmslos jede Kinderehe in Baden-Württemberg seit 2017 ist auf die Massenmigration zurückzuführen!

Das ergab meine Kleine Anfrage an die Landesregierung.

Fast 40 % der Kinderehen wurden zwischen Syrern geschlossen, Kinderehen unter zwei Deutschen machen nur 0,3 % aus! https://t.co/BeJ4wS3CJL

— Nikolaos Boutakoglou (@Nik_Boutakoglou) October 5, 2026

Emely Knorr, co-author of the government inquiry, wrote: "Child marriages are incompatible with our values. Children have a right to safety, education, and a self-determined future. That is why we need effective protection, early intervention, and decisive action against forced marriages."

Germany raised the minimum marriage age to 18 in 2017 and generally does not recognize foreign marriages involving minors under certain conditions. The Tübingen authority deals exclusively with marriages contracted abroad that come to the attention of German registry offices.

The AfD inquiry was prompted in part by a Terre des Femmes leaflet warning of the risk of forced marriage during school holidays, but the state government said it had no financial involvement in the leaflet.

As Remix News has reported in the past, the issue is not just child marriages. Mass migration has brought new backward cultural norms to Europe that are completely incompatible with European human rights. For example, already in 2020, the German government admitted that there were at least 68,000 female genital mutilation victims in the country, rising 44 percent since 2017.

According to then German Minister for Family Affairs Franziska Giffey, mainly migration is to blame for the massive increase as many migrants coming to Germany commonly practice FGM in their own home countries. The practice, which is a human rights violation, involves the ritual cutting off some or all of the external female genitalia.

Germany is far from the only country dealing with this trend. Remix News reported this year that a female genital mutilation crisis had hit Paris, with over 140,000 such cases seen across the country.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/14/2026 - 03:30

Trump Announces Federal Support To Keep Local Energy Provider Online In Ohio

President Donald Trump said at an Oct. 12 rally in Youngstown, Ohio, that the departments of Energy and Commerce will help keep SOBE Thermal Energy Systems, a troubled downtown steam utility, running as cold weather approaches. "You're going to stay nice and warm during the winter," Trump said at the Covelli Centre rally for local Republicans ahead of the midterms.

President Donald Trump takes the stage during a rally at the Covelli Centre in Youngstown, Ohio, on Oct. 12, 2026. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

Details were thin. The Epoch Times said it had asked the departments for comment on what federal support would look like.

SOBE has been in trouble for a year. A Mahoning County judge appointed a receiver last fall at the request of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, and its rented boiler was repossessed days later over unpaid bills, the Vindicator reported. A January waterline rupture left 28 downtown customers without heat and hot water in below-zero temperatures, the paper said.

As the Epoch Times notes further, Trump also celebrated the Department of War choosing Cleveland for its 46,000 square-foot submarine component manufacturing facility, which will see to maintenance, production, and repair.

Although he is not on the ballot, the president is on a fast-paced campaign tour, having already addressed crowds in Tennessee, New York, and Nebraska, among other states, with the stop in Ohio's Mahoning Valley to boost GOP voter turnout in the November election.

He last visited the Buckeye State on Oct. 3 when he headlined a rally in Vandalia.

The incumbent party has historically faced an uphill battle in the midterms, which Trump has vowed to turn around.

On Nov. 3, voters will determine control of the House of Representatives and Senate, with close races nationwide and Ohio potentially holding the key to victory.

"One vote can steer Congress in a direction that you're not going to be happy with, and it's not Ohio values," Trump said, urging voters to back the state's Republican candidates.

Several speakers, including Trump, also recognized Columbus Day, and the vandalism of statues in an attempt to erase the memory of the Italian explorer in recent years.

"The radical left maniacs, they took the name Columbus, Christopher Columbus, away," Trump said. "We have to win, we have to keep winning, because they'll do it again."

Rep. Michael Rulli (R-Ohio), heavily favored in his reelection race against Democrat Elizabeth Kirtley, chatted with constituents on the floor of the arena before taking the stage.

"This is the blue-collar, Bruce Springsteen, Archie Bunker way of living right here. This is the populist movement," Rulli told The Epoch Times. "So with Trump coming here, he has to wake up our voters. They have to show up. Whoever carries Ohio will be the party that shows up to vote."

Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who was appointed to the Senate to fill Vice President JD Vance's seat, is facing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in a consequential battle.

"We have a sense of pride, a sense of humor around here, and ... we're blessed," Husted said during the rally.

His opponent lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) in 2024.

"So you fired him two years ago. And now, he wants his job back, and he's making all kinds of promises," Moreno told supporters, while emphasizing the voting records of Democratic senators.

"Three times in a row, the Democrats in the United States Senate shut down our government, refused to pay American citizens who showed up to work a paycheck - not for a day or two, for months."

Recent polls show a close race, with Brown slightly ahead in several results.

Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican, is facing former Ohio health director Dr. Amy Acton, a Democrat, in the race to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike DeWine.

Ramaswamy said his plan is to lead with conservative values, guided by the nation's founding principles.

"We will always defend the greatness of this country without apologizing for who we are," he said.

"That is who we are as Americans.

"It means we, the people, create a government that is accountable to us ... that we believe in liberty and freedom and success over communism, success over socialism."

The gubernatorial candidate called on audience members to reach out to their family and friends to help Republicans secure victories across the state.

"We're counting on you. That is on your shoulders," Ramaswamy said. "This is probably the most important election for governor that our state has ever seen in our history."

Native Ohioan Jon Gruden, 2003 Super Bowl-winning NFL coach with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Husted's teammate at the University of Dayton, introduced the president.

"To maximize our true potential, we've got to believe in our leadership," Gruden said. "We've got to do it together. And if we can get this group elected, great days are ahead."

Thousands of supporters from across Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania cheered and waved signs throughout the nearly four-hour program.

At least three protesters were removed from the arena, with one incident turning physical before the individual was forcibly evicted.

The president is scheduled to speak at GOP campaign rallies in Wasilla, Alaska; Bullhead City, Arizona; Kalispell, Montana; and Dalton, Georgia in the coming days, with more stops expected over the next three weeks before Election Day.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 21:20

"We Have Guns Too": Totally Drunk Indiana Democrat Goes On Live TV, Makes Ass

A Democratic candidate for local office in deep-red rural Indiana delivered a rambling, apparently intoxicated performance during a televised candidate forum, responding to a standard policy question by declaring she would fire Republicans, calling MAGA supporters racist and unintelligent, and closing with the line "We have guns too."

Jaime West, the Democratic nominee for Fayette County Council District 4, appeared on LocalTV3's October 9 candidate forum, hosted by Connersville News-Examiner managing editor Amy Graham-McCarty. When asked what one decision she would make that might be unpopular with some voters but in the county's best interest, West paused, asked the moderator to repeat the question, and then answered: "Firing all Republicans. I wouldn't let them... I don't even talk to them. I don't like them."

She continued that the county's own state representative had voted against her own party, then shifted to blaming local voters for "this ICE coming into our communities, stealing people's jobs." West distinguished between "good Republicans" and "these MAGAs," describing the latter as "just racist and aren't very intelligent at all." She also claimed she had been "threatened so many times to my face by MAGA," including an allegation that "the sheriff's nephew threatened to blow my head off."

The Fayette County sheriff says he has "5 nieces and 0 nephews." Sheriff Zac Jones told Fox News Digital he doesn't know West, and Fox noted it wasn't immediately clear which sheriff she meant.

When given a final opportunity for closing remarks to voters, West said, "We have guns too."

The clip, amplified on X by journalist Ryan Grim with the caption noting it was what happens "when you're at happy hour and are reminded you agreed to do an interview about your race," has circulated widely. Viewers and local online commenters have widely described West as appearing intoxicated during the forum. Fayette County, Indiana, is heavily Republican; Donald Trump received roughly 77-78% of the vote there in 2024. West faces Republican Gary Keener Jr. in the November 3 general election. Early voting is already underway.

Watch this to the end, you won't regret it. This is what happens when you're at happy hour and are reminded you agreed to do an interview about your race.

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 13, 2026

County council seats typically focus on budgets, taxes, and basic local services rather than national immigration or partisan purges. West's on-air answer treated the position as an opportunity to exclude the majority of her potential constituents from consideration.

The full segment remains available on LocalTV3. Neither West nor the Indiana Democratic Party immediately responded to requests for comment from Blaze News, and Fox reported West could not be reached.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 20:30

Military's Top Archbishop Tells Catholic Troops To Seek Exemption From Hasan Firing Squad, Likens Livestream To Terrorists

Archbishop Timothy Broglio, the Catholic Church's archbishop for the U.S. armed forces, told Catholic service members assigned to Nidal Hasan's firing squad to request to be excused, in a statement Monday that also condemned War Secretary Pete Hegseth's plan to livestream the Dec. 3 execution of the Fort Hood shooter.

Archbishop Timothy P. Broglio of the U.S. Archdiocese for the Military Services  (CNS photo/Lola Gomez)

Broglio, who led the U.S. bishops' conference from 2022 to 2025, wrote that he wanted to "express my disapproval of what is proposed regarding the execution of the terrorist Hasan." "Do we really want to imitate the terrorists of this world and make a public spectacle of barbarically killing our adversaries?" he asked, according to CBS News. He also questioned broadcasting to the world the execution of "a man in a wheel chair." Hasan has been paralyzed from the chest down since military police shot him during the 2009 attack.

The statement cites the Catechism and Pope Francis on the Church's opposition to capital punishment, then lists the costs Broglio sees in a public killing: "moral injury" to the soldiers who carry it out, the exposure of young viewers during the nation's 250th anniversary year, and the effect on the military's reputation. He asked people of goodwill to push for the decision to be reconsidered, or at least to keep children from watching. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to CBS's request for comment.

A specific unit has already been picked to carry out the execution, and officials are weighing the psychological toll as they choose which soldiers will fire, CNN reported Saturday, citing sources. Because the execution is being carried out under a legal order, it is unclear whether those soldiers can decline. One source noted that while many soldiers have killed in combat, this would be different: the prisoner would be immobile and positioned as a target.

Hegseth's announcement caught people across the Pentagon and the Army off guard, three sources told CNN; for many, his interview last week with Jack Posobiec aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln was the first they heard of a public execution. Hegseth said it would be public "because people need to understand that there's serious consequences for these types of things."

Army regulations limit the witnesses at a military execution to a short list that includes the prisoner's family, the victims' families, the press and a chaplain. One source said Hegseth, acting Army Secretary Adam Telle and Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell's team settled on a livestream as what "public" would mean, and the Pentagon confirmed the livestream on Thursday, saying details would follow.

President Trump told reporters Saturday he hasn't made a final call on the livestream, a day after saying he "absolutely" approved it. "There are two thoughts: don't show it and show it," Trump said at the White House, adding that he knows "what the military would like to do" but "I'll make a decision," according to NBC News. He also reposted on Truth Social a Dallas News piece in which pastor Robert Jeffress, a longtime ally, backed a public execution.

Broglio's statement follows Archbishop Paul Coakley, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, who called the livestream "a barbaric promotion of a culture of death" on Friday. Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, marked the World Day Against the Death Penalty with a post on X saying "the requirements of justice can be met without recourse to capital punishment," without mentioning Hasan. Broglio's opposition predates the livestream: when Hasan was sentenced in 2013, he said "the church teaches that unjustified killing is wrong in all circumstances. That includes the death penalty."

In October 2021, as the Pentagon threatened to punish troops who refused the COVID-19 vaccine without an approved exemption, Broglio wrote: "No one should be forced to receive a COVID-19 vaccine if it would violate the sanctity of his or her conscience." Hegseth hailed the troops discharged for refusing that vaccine as "warriors of conscience" last year, after the Trump administration ordered them reinstated with back pay.

The livestream has drawn objections from both parties. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she "would expect this from terrorists and dictators, but not here in America," and Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said the "death penalty is not entertainment," per CBS. House Speaker Mike Johnson told CBS that some House Republicans have "concerns" he plans to raise with the White House, warning the video could become "a recruiting tool for future terrorists." Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) called the plan "beyond disgusting," and Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) called public executions "medieval." Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, said he didn't know whether the livestream would actually happen and that he wouldn't watch it, as we reported.

Trump signed off on execution by firing squad, on Hegseth's recommendation, earlier this month, and the Army has set it for 1 p.m. Dec. 3 at Fort Hood, as we noted last week. Hasan, a former Army major and psychiatrist, killed 13 people - 12 soldiers and a retired soldier working as a civilian - and wounded more than 30 at a soldier readiness center at Fort Hood on Nov. 5, 2009, as troops prepared to deploy. A court-martial convicted him in 2013, and the Supreme Court declined to review his case last year, Stars and Stripes reported. Alonzo Lunsford, a retired staff sergeant who survived the attack, told CNN that broadcasting the execution "is not acceptable."

If it goes ahead, it will be the first military execution since the Army hanged Pvt. John A. Bennett at Fort Leavenworth in 1961, and the Army's first by firing squad since Pvt. Eddie Slovik was shot for desertion in France in 1945. The Death Penalty Information Center says it has no record of any U.S. execution being livestreamed. The last known large-scale public execution in the country was the 1936 hanging of Rainey Bethea before roughly 20,000 people in Kentucky.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 20:05

Trump Hints At Possible Meeting With North Korean Leader

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Oct. 12 that he might meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his planned visit to Asia next month.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the North Korean side of the border at the village of Panmunjom in Demilitarized Zone, on June 30, 2019. Susan Walsh/AP Photo

Asked by a reporter whether he expects to meet Kim during the trip, Trump said: "I may. That will be exciting, won't it? But I get along with him."

The president is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, scheduled for Nov. 18-19.

The Epoch Times reached out to the White House for further details but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

Trump said in August he planned to meet Kim later this year but gave no details.

"He has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons," Trump told reporters on Aug. 19. "We should have never have allowed it to happen. If I were president, I wouldn't have let it happen, but he's got them."

Trump met with Kim three times in 2018 and 2019 during his first term. Negotiations over Pyongyang's nuclear program collapsed in 2019 due to disagreements over North Korea's denuclearization efforts and the easing of U.S.-led sanctions.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been rising over the years because of North Korea's repeated missile tests.

The United States, South Korea, and Japan, in response, have enhanced their deterrence strategies and expanded their joint military drills, which the North Korean leader portrays as invasion rehearsals.

The North Korean leader said earlier this year that relations with the United States could improve if Washington abandoned what he called a hostile policy against Pyongyang, state media KCNA reported on Feb. 26.

Kim said the country would never give up its nuclear weapons and ruled out the possibility of engaging in talks with South Korea.

North Korea unveiled a new defense industry museum featuring various weapons, including the Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic missile, on Oct. 11.

A display in front of the Hwasong-20 launcher appeared to show a world map depicting ranges extending beyond the U.S. mainland to the Middle East, Australia, and South America, said Shin Jong-woo, secretary general of the Korea Defense and Security Forum.

"The exhibition appears intended to highlight the achievements of Kim's defense science development program," Shin said. "It gave the impression of propaganda aimed at gaining a strategic advantage ahead of a potential North Korea - US summit."

Kim attended the opening ceremony alongside his wife and daughter, according to state media.

North Korea fired several missiles toward the sea off its eastern coast on Oct. 12, with one projectile traveling more than 559 miles, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The South Korean military said it has strengthened surveillance to prepare for additional launches and remained on an all-out readiness posture, adding that it would share relevant information with the United States and Japan.

The Japanese Ministry of Defense also detected the launch, saying that the projectiles landed near North Korea's east coast or in the Sea of Japan. The ministry said it was assessing whether the missiles had violated Japan's territorial waters or exclusive economic zone.

North Korea's missile launches came just days after South Korea launched its first hypersonic glide vehicle on Oct. 8. South Korean presidential spokesperson Kang Yu-jung said the launch was successful and that it marked a major milestone in securing a new deterrent.

Jill McLaughlin, Evgenia Filimianova, Guy Birchall, and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 19:45

Selma Blair Hit With FBI Summons And State Assault Counts After Allegedly Biting Flight Attendant On Delta Flight

Actress Selma Blair was arrested after a Delta Air Lines flight from Los Angeles landed at New York's JFK Airport on Sunday night, following an alleged assault on the crew, CBS New York reported. She was arraigned in Queens the next evening and pleaded not guilty to two counts of second-degree assault, and the FBI separately issued her a federal summons. Everything described below is alleged; she has been charged, not convicted.

Actress Selma Blair arraigned after alleged Delta flight altercation

Delta Flight 938 got to the gate ahead of schedule, according to ABC7 New York, and Delta said there was no operational impact. Two flight attendants were hurt and one went to the hospital, the Port Authority Police Department said. A law enforcement source told CBS that one was bitten and the other suffered a laceration, and that the crew had to restrain Blair for the rest of the flight. TMZ, citing its own sources, put it differently: that she punched one attendant and bit another.

Before landing, the pilot asked air traffic control for medical personnel at the gate. "A bloody nose as well as some bite marks," he said, according to audio captured on ATC.com, adding that the passenger "also bashed her head on the bulkhead or something like that." The pilot did not say whose nose was bloodied or who was bitten. CBS also reported, citing law enforcement sources, that Blair tried to open a cabin door. Neither ABC7 nor TMZ repeated that claim.

The two state charges cover only what allegedly happened after she left the plane, not the flight itself. Prosecutors say Blair kicked a Port Authority police officer while being moved from JFK into an ambulance, and then kicked a nurse at Jamaica Hospital. ABC7 reported that the officer, Maria Suarez, was allegedly kicked repeatedly in the face, neck and chest and reported swelling to the jaw, and that the nurse reported substantial chest pain. Both counts are charged under New York Penal Law 120.05(3), and the criminal complaint was filed in Queens.

A judge set bail at $20,000 cash, a $60,000 bond or a $60,000 partially secured bond, and scheduled the next state court date for Jan. 19, 2027.

The in-flight conduct itself has so far produced only a federal violation notice with no court date. A federal law enforcement source told CBS the FBI summons covers assault within the special maritime and territorial jurisdiction of the United States. ABC7 reported that it is answerable in the petty offenses court in Brooklyn federal court, that no appearance date has been set, and that the FBI and the FAA are both investigating.

Blair's side says the cause was medical. In a statement quoted by ABC7, her representative said "Selma experienced a medical emergency that led to the alleged conduct" and that she "is currently in stable condition." Her attorney told CBS the same without giving specifics. Blair, who was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis in 2018 and announced remission in 2021, was traveling with her service dog, a Labrador named Scout, which TMZ said her lawyer collected at JFK. Delta said it has "zero tolerance for unruly or unlawful behavior, as the safety of our customers and crew always comes first."

It is not the first time Blair's behavior on a Delta flight has made news. On June 20, 2016, she was taken off a Cancun-to-Los Angeles flight on a stretcher. The next day she told Vanity Fair that she had mixed alcohol with medication, which "caused me to black out and led me to say and do things that I deeply regret," and apologized "to all of the passengers and crew that I disturbed," as UPI reported at the time. CBS noted that her 2022 memoir includes a chapter, "Bite Me," about past occasions when she bit other celebrities while drinking.

Blair's film credits include "Cruel Intentions," "Legally Blonde" and "Hellboy," and she was a contestant on "Dancing with the Stars" in 2022.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 19:20

Bank Of America Fined $1.2 Billion For Failing To Report $5 Billion In Suspicious Transactions, Including Chinese Money-Laundering Networks

Most banks spend the night before their earnings call polishing the NII slide and fudging the reserve release calculations. Bank of America will be spending it reading a Treasury press release about itself.

Just after the close on Tuesday, Treasury announced more than $1.21 billion in penalties against BofA for violating anti-money-laundering and sanctions laws. Treasury calls it the third-largest penalty in its history, and the OCC calls its piece the largest it has ever handed out. The bank admitted it willfully violated the Bank Secrecy Act. It did not report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions on time, and more than $1 billion of that was tied to what Treasury calls "priority" national-security risks, including Chinese money-laundering networks and illicit finance along the southwest border.

Here is how the money breaks down, per Treasury's press release:

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) assessed a $1.2 billion penalty for the Bank's failure to mitigate and report priority national security risks, including Chinese Money Laundering Networks and illicit finance along the southwest border.

The OCC assessed a $750 million civil money penalty for the Bank's deficient and ineffective BSA/AML (anti-money laundering) compliance program.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced an $11.6 million settlement agreement with the Bank over apparent violations of numerous sanctions programs, including on Iran, Russia, narcotics, and global terrorism.

The penalties don't simply add up. Per CNBC, the OCC's $750 million is credited toward FinCEN's $1.2 billion, which gets you to about $1.21 billion once OFAC's change is added. In other words, it is a $1.2 billion fine with a record attached.

"Prioritized Its Revenues"

The details are where it gets awkward. Treasury did not say BofA was simply overwhelmed. It said this:

As these issues arose, Bank of America prioritized its revenues and minimized the impact on its required compliance resources. The nature and extent of the Bank's resulting reliance on law enforcement inquiries, requests by other financial institutions, and similar interventions over its own internal, automated controls... meant that the Bank effectively outsourced to third parties a substantial portion of its proactive detection and reporting obligations.

Translation: BofA's money-laundering detection system often amounted to waiting for a subpoena.

Treasury also says the bank "allowed suspicious activity to accumulate uninvestigated for extended periods." That meant SARs arrived too late to help law enforcement much. Its customer due diligence also "failed to account for customers' extensive reliance on payments from unknown third parties," and the bank didn't act on red flags that included "potential ties to narcotics trafficking proceeds," even after its own compliance staff raised concerns about trade-based money laundering and fraud.

The OCC's language was harsher. Its release says the bank's transaction monitoring "resulted in the Bank failing to properly monitor trillions of dollars in transactions," that "the Bank knew for years" it was failing to escalate potentially suspicious activity, and that its BSA Officer and staff "lacked sufficient skills and expertise." Comptroller Jonathan Gould said:

"The second largest bank's egregious and continued BSA violations warrant the OCC imposing its largest [civil money penalty] ever assessed against a bank."

https://t.co/f5Z7atptce

— Comptroller Jonathan Gould (@USComptroller) October 13, 2026

OFAC, for its part, found 475 apparent sanctions violations. They included payments routed through blocked banks and designated individuals who were allowed to withdraw funds "due to poor sanctions alert calibration." OFAC called the violations "non-egregious," which is the regulatory version of "could have been worse."

About That 2024 Order

None of this came out of nowhere. On December 23, 2024, the OCC issued a cease-and-desist order against BofA for BSA and sanctions deficiencies, "including a failure to timely file suspicious activity reports and failure to correct a previously identified deficiency related to its Customer Due Diligence processes." The order itself described a "systemic failure" to set proper transaction-monitoring thresholds. That order came with no fine, a point American Banker noted at the time. As we reported back in October 2024 (Oct 30, 2024), barely two weeks after TD's guilty plea, BofA disclosed in a filing that it was in talks with several federal regulators over its

Bank Secrecy Act/anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance programs... including transaction monitoring, training, governance, and customer due diligence... resolution of these discussions may include one or more public orders by the regulators.

At the time we wondered which of the big US banks would be "named next" after TD. It took two years and an extra cease-and-desist, but we can now cross that question off the list.

(The same filing also disclosed a separate CFPB inquiry into payments on the Zelle network, which BofA said it might fight in court. Nothing in today's Treasury, OCC or OFAC releases mentions Zelle. That was a different matter with a different regulator.)

This time there is a fine, and the reason is what happened afterward. Per Treasury:

After agreeing to the 2024 Order, the Bank still failed to prioritize BSA/AML compliance... For example, more than a year after the 2024 Order, the Bank still failed to escalate potentially suspicious activities to investigators for review.

Put differently, the first notice was free. The follow-up came with a bill.

The TD Comparison

The obvious benchmark is TD Bank. In October 2024 TD pleaded guilty to BSA and money-laundering conspiracy charges and agreed to roughly $3 billion in total penalties across agencies, according to the DOJ. That included a $1.8 billion criminal resolution, a $450 million OCC penalty, and an asset cap on its US operations. We flagged back in May 2024 that the AML mess risked sending TD into a "lost decade."

BofA's settlement differs in a few important ways:

• About 40% of TD's total: $1.2 billion versus about $3 billion.
• Admission, not a plea: BofA admitted willful BSA violations to FinCEN. No source we've seen mentions criminal charges or a DOJ resolution. 
• No asset cap: Instead of a growth restriction, BofA gets a third-party lookback and independent reviews of its monitoring, CDD and correspondent-banking due diligence. Those reviews focus on the southwest border and cartels, Iran and Russia.
• OCC records: BofA's $750 million beats TD's $450 million OCC penalty by a wide margin.

In other words, a record fine, but nothing like TD's sentence.

Some Napkin Math

BofA told CNBC the penalties mean a $1.2 billion non-tax-deductible charge in Q3 results (perfect timing for tomorrow's Adjusted EPS to miss net of "one time almost criminal items", cutting net income by about 17 cents per share. Against the roughly $1.11 consensus EPS, that is about 15% of the quarter's expected earnings gone before the call starts.

Another way to measure it: $1.2 billion against "over $5 billion" in suspicious transactions not reported on time works out to about 24 cents per unreported dollar. As compliance budgets go, the cheaper option was always going to be the compliance budget.

The bank says remediation costs are "already reflected in its current expense base," so the hit should be one-time, at least on paper.

The Stock

The timing was unusual. BAC closed Tuesday at $53.94, down 1.2% in concert with a broader bank selloff (after what were good, if not great earnings by JPM, Citi and Goldman) but the news came out around 4:09pm ET, right after the bell. In other words, regular-session weakness came alongside a soft tape for financials and can't be pinned on the fine, and sure enough BofA sold off another 2% after hours once the news hit. That leaves BAC down about 3.6% YTD, and well below its 52-week high of $65.22.

TL/DR: the $1.2 billion is not the story. BofA can cover it with about a week of NII (6 days when the 10Y hits 6%); the story is that Treasury, the OCC and Bessent all used the same phrase about the second-largest US bank: it "prioritized its revenues" over compliance. And BofA kept doing so for more than a year after signing a cease-and-desist. For a CEO who has built his tenure on "responsible growth," that phrase will be hard to escape. The independent reviews and lookback will likely produce more late SARs, and possibly more findings, over the coming quarters.

Next catalysts:

1. Q3 results, Wednesday before the open; call at 8:30am ET. Consensus is about $1.11 EPS on about $30.6–30.7 billion revenue, with FTE NII of about $16.55 billion (Zacks). BofA guided 2026 NII growth to the upper end of 6–8% in July. A Q3 NII print of $16.3 billion or more keeps that credible, per one preview.
2. On the call, listen for whether management reports results excluding the 17-cent charge (it will). Also listen for any change to remediation spending or the expense outlook, whether more regulatory or DOJ exposure remains (a "no comment" will say a lot), whether buybacks are affected, and NII guidance after the September Fed move.
3. Moynihan on CNBC at 10:20am ET, where "responsible growth" is likely to come up more than he'd like.

Going into the quarter, Goldman's desk said it wanted BofA to show "any NII upside updated for the rate curve and can this flow into operating leverage?" Operating leverage is easier to show without a $1.2 billion penalty line item.

Still, the main lesson for anyone thinking of skimping on AML: it costs about 24 cents on the dollar to make your (allegedly criminal) clients extra happy, and the bill eventually arrives.

Much more in the full Goldman Desk Bank/Fins EPS Preview note, available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 19:00

Jon Stewart Tells Democrats To Skip 'Performative' Impeachment Hearings If They Win Congress

Comedian Jon Stewart told Democrats last week that a House majority should go to the economy and not to a new round of Trump impeachment hearings. Answering fan questions at the end of Wednesday's episode of his podcast, The Weekly Show, Stewart was asked whether impeaching Trump would be a strategic mistake given that a conviction is unlikely, Mediaite reported.

Stewart said he did not want to see a "five-act performative play of House hearings," and he said Trump and his allies know how to "run out the clock." He described the country as being in a "triage" situation and said what he wants is "a full government effort on rebalancing this economy," with real ideas on labor versus capital.

Stewart pointed to the two earlier impeachments and the Jan. 6 inquiry as proof that hearings do not produce accountability. Per Mediaite, he asked what reason there was to expect Democrats could succeed now if they could not bring accountability for Jan. 6 in two years.

He did not rule out oversight altogether. Fox News quoted him saying Democrats could investigate if they want, but that he did not want "everybody having the opportunity to pantomime accountability," and that they should "govern."

Trump addressed the subject Wednesday in the Oval Office, Mediaite reported, dismissing the chance that Democrats would impeach him and saying, "I can do whatever I want, if I want."

Stewart is not the only Democratic-aligned voice urging restraint. Fox said James Carville and Al Hunt cautioned against impeachment on their podcast Tuesday, with Hunt saying Democrats should "Investigate, investigate, investigate." Fox also quoted Rahm Emanuel, in a Sunday interview, saying, "You're never going to get an impeachment." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has declined to say whether he would support impeachment proceedings, Fox noted.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 18:40

Iran Rebuilding Missile Stockpile For Possible Renewed Fighting, Israeli Officials Say

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Iran has rebuilt a significant portion of its ballistic missile stockpile and is working to expand it as it prepares for possible renewed fighting with the United States and Israel in the coming weeks, senior Israeli security officials told Epoch Magazine Israel.

Missiles produced by Iran’s armed forces are displayed near a row of Iranian flags in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 11, 2026. Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

Israeli officials assessed that the buildup reflects Tehran's efforts to strengthen its deterrence capabilities and improve its position should diplomacy fail. They said Iran's moves do not necessarily indicate that the leadership in Tehran has decided to go to war.

Israel has raised its alert level as it prepares for possible renewed fighting, security officials said, warning that mounting economic pressure could push Tehran toward an offensive against U.S. targets and Persian Gulf energy facilities, potentially also targeting strategic sites in Israel.

The assessments come as Iran's security chief threatened to strike U.S.-linked technology infrastructure across the region if Washington resumes attacks.

U.S. President Donald Trump has ruled out new U.S. strikes before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, citing ongoing negotiations, while maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian ports and expanding sanctions on Tehran's oil trade.

Israeli Officials Assess Risk of First Strike

The Israeli officials said Iran's worsening economic crisis, declining state revenues, and continued U.S. naval blockade could deepen fears among Iranian leaders about domestic instability and the survival of the regime.

Under those circumstances, they said, Tehran could consider an offensive intended to break the blockade and increase pressure on the United States and its allies.

In one scenario, Iran could conclude that Trump intends to attack immediately after the elections and that negotiations offer no further prospect of an agreement. In that case, the officials said, Tehran could attempt to strike first with a large-scale attack on regional targets.

Such an offensive could bring a severe military response and deepen the crisis facing Iran's leadership, they said.

A senior Israeli security official said Israel's political leadership could order an offensive operation if intelligence detects imminent preparations for an attack on Israel.

Iran Threatens Technology Assets

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told state-run Press TV that U.S.-linked technology infrastructure worth more than $2 trillion could be targeted if Washington attacks again.

"We have not yet included these assets among our targets. But if war breaks out, many of these cables, data centers, artificial intelligence facilities, and numerous other sites will be destroyed," he said in the interview, conducted on Oct. 10 and reported on Oct. 12.

Rezaei said Iran had held back some military capabilities during earlier phases of the conflict and was ready to deploy additional capabilities.

"Today, we are fully prepared to introduce new capabilities if the war starts again," Rezaei said, without specifying what those would include.

He also said Tehran remains determined to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic oil shipping route where Iran has attacked tankers it says refuse to adhere to its traffic management scheme.

"We will not back down on this issue," Rezaei said.

On diplomacy, Rezaei said Washington had accepted some of Iran's seven proposed conditions for a settlement but left others unclear.

Blockade Remains as Talks Continue

Trump said on Oct. 8 that the two countries were having "productive conversations" and that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.

The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and shipping would remain "in full force and effect" as talks continue, Trump said. He also said that he expects oil prices to drop after the election.

Crude oil prices have been elevated because of disruptions to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. military efforts to facilitate transit.

The U.S. Central Command, the military command responsible for Iran operations, said on Oct. 8 that 1.25 billion barrels of oil had passed through the strait in recent months, while Iran had shipped none because of the "ironclad blockade."

Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded at more than $105.7 per barrel on Oct. 12, the highest price in more than two weeks, as ongoing Middle East tensions fueled concerns about further disruptions to energy supplies.

"In order to see a more meaningful move lower in refined product prices, we will need to see normalization in the Middle East," ING analysts wrote in a note on Oct. 12, commenting on an earlier dip in crude prices after Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 18:20

Can Elon Musk Rescue Republicans In November?

Elon Musk has given more than $276 million to Republican groups and his own America PAC since July, making him the largest known donor of the 2026 midterm elections, according to figures provided to The New York Times ahead of Thursday's federal filing deadline.

The spending marks a reversal from May 2025, when Musk said, "In terms of political spending, I'm going to do a lot less in the future."

The money has helped Republicans build a financial advantage in a cycle with difficult political conditions for the party. Republican outside groups, including President Trump's super PAC, are buying heavy late-campaign advertising, while Democrats have voiced concern about their own finances and have no billionaire donor operating at Musk's scale, the Times reported.

The largest single check went to the Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC backing Republican Senate candidates. Musk gave the group $158 million over the summer, a quarterly record for one donor at the organization and more than its Democratic counterpart raised from all sources in the same quarter.

America PAC, which Musk founded in 2024, received more than $76 million from him over the same period. His federal committee contributions for the 2025-26 cycle now total about $366 million, including $90 million given before July. Musk previously gave roughly $290 million during the 2023-24 cycle. People briefed on his giving told the Times he also made undisclosed donations in both cycles, including seven-figure contributions this year through groups that keep their donors private.

From July through September, Musk also gave $20 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, $10 million to the Republican Governors Association, and $2 million to the Republican Attorneys General Association.

Texas has drawn more of Musk's money than any other state, and the Senate race there accounts for more than a third of America PAC's disclosed spending. He gave $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, at a point when Democrats were heavily outspending Paxton.

Musk's contributions to the Senate Leadership Fund came before the group's late-August decision to launch what became a $149 million advertising campaign for Paxton. The fund, run by allies of Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, had not invested heavily in the race before then.

America PAC spends most of its midterm budget on door-to-door canvassing. PAC officials said nearly 3,000 paid canvassers worked across the country last week, and the group says it has knocked on about 6.5 million doors in seven Senate battlegrounds and nearly three dozen House races. The operation focuses on registering and turning out conservative voters, especially those who vote irregularly, a harder task in a midterm year without Trump at the top of the ballot. Trump's advisers asked Musk this spring to rebuild his 2024 field program, according to a person familiar with the conversation.

The PAC's messaging centers on socialism and transgender policy. Its mailers repeatedly link Democratic candidates to New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, according to the mail-tracking firm Mintt, while its leading Texas advertisement features James Talarico's past claim that "God is nonbinary," according to the ad tracker AdImpact. "Radical Democrat socialists are winning elections all across America. Could Texas be next?" reads a door hanger the group distributes in Texas.

Despite his donations, according to the New York Times, Musk has taken a less visible personal role this cycle and has stopped personally handing out the $1 million sweepstakes checks that drew legal challenges. People who have spoken with him recently said he rarely discusses the midterms in private and has concentrated on his companies.

America PAC has also confirmed for the first time that it plans to remain active in the 2028 presidential election.

"If Democrats take control of Washington and win key gubernatorial and attorney general races this November, then America risks becoming a socialist, woke and borderless country," America PAC spokesman Andrew Romeo said. "These robust investments have allowed the G.O.P. apparatus to get its message out so Republicans can have a fighting chance to defy history."

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/13/2026 - 17:40