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Despite Big Bounce In Revenues, TSLA Shares Drop After Disappointing Earnings

Despite Big Bounce In Revenues, TSLA Shares Drop After Disappointing Earnings

After a dismal two years of weakening demand, falling sales, and damage to its brand by Elon Musk’s political activities, Tesla’s road to recovery remains mixed on the heels of an impressive delivery report.

While earnings fell 18% compared to Q2 2025 to 33c a share (well below expectations of 51c) with higher AI spending and R&D weighing on profitability; the silver lining was that Revenue came in at $28.2 billion, which was 28% higher than last year (well above expectations of $26.4 billion).

The company said it hit $100 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue for the first time in history in the second quarter, and earned $1.11 billion in net income in the quarter.

The company said its first-generation production lines for Optimus Bot are being installed in anticipation of production in 2026, with the company saying production will happen "soon."

The Cybercab is listed as in production, an improvement from the company saying it expected volume production "this year" last quarter.

Tesla said the vehicle began production in the quarter.

The Tesla Semi is listed as "commissioning" and the company said it remains on track for volume production this year.

"We are focused on maximum capacity utilization at our factories," the company said.

Despite the glorious robotic (and Robotaxi and AI compute) future ahead, Tesla remains a car company. And in the second quarter, it sold an impressive 480,126 vehicles, about a 25 percent increase compared to the second quarter of 2025.

Tesla's automotive gross margins were 16.3% in the second quarter, up from 15% in Q2 2025, but down from 19.2% in Q1 of this year.

Active FSD subscriptions hit 1.48 million in the second quarter, up 56% year-over-year and up from the 1.28 million reported in the first quarter.

Additionally, Tesla said that they have more than doubled their onsite compute in Texas (in terms of MW of compute) during the first half of 2026. Cortex 2 supports the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software and will ramp further over the rest of the year to ensure we have sufficient compute resources.

Tesla spent $5.8 billion in capital expenditures in the second quarter, bringing the first half’s total to about $8.28 billion. Though capex ramped over the past three months, it’s still not on track to meet the $25 billion in 2026 outlays Musk forecast in April.

Energy storage returned to being a revenue driver, with revenue increasing 13% year-over-year after slipping in the first quarter.

Tesla deployed 13.5 gigawatt hours of storage in 2Q, up more than 50% from the prior three months (as data centers are driving demand for batteries, which can help regulate power flows and speed up connections to the grid).

David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, said:

Tesla’s earnings tonight highlight a core tension between short-term financial realities and an ambitious long-term AI vision. While recent delivery rebounds demonstrate steady vehicle volume, heavy margin pressure from global price cuts and massive capital expenditure - projected at over $25 billion this year for AI compute, chips, and infrastructure - are squeezing free cash flow.”

“Ultimately, Tesla is asking investors to fund an aggressive infrastructure cycle: if its pivot into autonomous fleets and physical AI succeeds, the long-term upside is massive, but any regulatory or technological delays leave the stock vulnerable if judged solely on its core automotive margins.”

Nevertheless, the earnings miss is weighing on Tesla shares after hours, testing three-month lows ahead of the Tesla earnings conference call, with Musk at the helm, set to start about 1730ET.

Investor focus likely will be on robotaxis, Optimus robots, capital spending and CEO Elon Musk.

The company said it has "never been more optimistic about the future."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 16:45

IRGC To Trump: Strike Iran's Infrastructure, We'll Shut Off The Gulf's Power

IRGC To Trump: Strike Iran's Infrastructure, We'll Shut Off The Gulf's Power Summary
  • More Tanker Attacks: Iran-backed Houthi militants said they targeted two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea

  • Trump ultimatum: Trump vowed the US will strike an Iranian bridge or power plant after every Iranian attack on shipping.

  • Iran responds: The IRGC threatened to hit Gulf energy infrastructure if Iranian infrastructure is attacked, saying it will cut off electricity among US allies.

  • Latest Gulf missile attacks: Iran claimed attacks on US-linked targets in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

  • Nuclear tensions: Iran denied nuclear activity at Pickaxe Mountain, calling US claims a 'fabricated pretext' for attack.

  • Oil climbs: Renewed Gulf attacks and shipping threats continued to lift oil prices.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 14% · No 86%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Oil Climbs After Houthis Attack Two Saudi Tankers in Red Sea

Oil gained after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they targeted two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, escalating the Middle East conflict and threatening deeper supply disruptions.

Brent spiked above $95 in post-settlement trading.

The Houthis attacked the two vessels with missiles and drones for violating a blockade imposed in the Red Sea, identifying the tankers as Encelia and Layla, the rebel group said.

UK Maritime Trade Operations said a vessel was hit southwest of Saudi Arabia’s Al Shuqaiq, causing a fire on board.

UKMTO didn’t identify the ship.

The first attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opens up a new front in the Middle East conflict, which has snarled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following a flare-up in violence.

Iran Responds to Trump Ultimatum: We'll Turn The Lights Off In Gulf

A top IRGC official has responded to Trump's Bridge attack for each shipping attack ultimatum (see below). Iranian IRGC Aerospace Commander Mousavi has threatened that Iran will cut off electricity to America's Gulf Allies if Iranian bridges or power plants are attacked, Tasnim News Agency.

"If the Americans target an Iranian bridge or power plant, Iran will respond by striking infrastructure and bridges across the region, including energy facilities in which the United States has interests,” the official said according semi-official news agency Tasnim.

"The Americans should by now, after these past ten days, be fully convinced that Iran strikes wherever it decides to strike. Therefore, any such gamble by Trump will once again end in his embarrassment," the IRGC commander added.

Separately, Iran’s deputy foreign minister briefed 25 European ambassadors and charges d’affaires in Tehran on the status of the conflict. "I reminded them that in the 40-day war, we imposed a severe defeat on the aggressors. In this new round of military aggression as well, we will resolutely defend our homeland and national interests," Kazem Gharibabadi posted on X.

"These wars have created no strategic gains for America and only endanger regional and global peace and security. I also said that Europe is expected to safeguard the United Nations Charter and international law and to condemn aggression,” he added.

Iran has continued to sound an "eye for an eye" theme, and has not backed down in the face of Trump's fresh threats...

Meanwhile, Iran is touting that it still possesses a very significant missile stockpile, as it is still producing even as US bombs fall:

Trump: US Will Destroy A Bridge Or Power Plant For Each Iranian Attack On Shipping

More telegraphing of intent from President Trump in the below Truth Social Post... he said the US military will "bomb and destroy" one bridge or power plant - including in Tehran - each time the Iranian military shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This comes a day after he unveiled the US military plans to conduct a large bombing of Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex, which is heavily fortified.

But the Iranians have already long demonstrated they won't alter course in the face of such threats, especially bluster from Trump over social media, and so this unlikely to be any kind of fix for Washington, as Tehran has vowed to keep control of Hormuz at all costs. The Pentagon has argued that things like bridges are 'dual use' as the Iranian military uses them to get supplies from one region to another, while international monitors have highlighted the potential for war crimes. The Iranians have in turn widened attacks on Gulf states to include key civic infrastructure, like water desalination plants (in Kuwait) - each time their own infrastructure gets hit.

Iran: Pickaxe Mountain Rhetoric is 'Fabricated Pretext'

Amid continued fighting which has included explosions heard in Tehran overnight and in the south, Iran's leadership has condemned the Trump administration's "obsessive focus on Kolang Kouh where no nuclear activity is taking place is nothing more than a fabricated pretext for aggression, destruction, and sabotage," according to Foreign Minister spokesman Esmail Baghaei in a post on X, referring to Pickaxe Mountain.

He pointed out that all of Iran's nuclear activity has long been fully declared to the IAEA, and so the repeat threats out of Washington to mount a major attack on it is a "flagrant violation" of UN charter and international law. Trump had said the day prior that the US military will be hitting Pickaxe mountain "pretty soon very heavily and there is nothing they can do about it."

IRIB via AFP/Getty Images

Even some supporters have quested why the US Commander-in-Chief would so casually telegraph his intentions, saying the Pentagon loses an operational edge in revealing such plans.

There's been a lot of sudden focus on Pickaxe Mountain, though it had largely been absent from all prior media coverage of the war, due to Israeli intelligence feeding it to US mainstream press. "Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside a mountain last fall, Israeli and U.S. officials say, a development that would heighten concerns that Tehran could reconstitute its nuclear program," The Wall Street Journal wrote Tuesday.

"Israel passed along the intelligence findings to the U.S., saying the centrifuges were transferred to the Pickaxe Mountain site last fall after the 12-day war in June when American and Israeli strikes pummeled Iran’s three main nuclear sites," it added.

US Bases in Gulf Under Renewed Attack

And now, by all accounts, more aircraft, refueling planes, and heavy military hardware continue to be transferred from Europe and into the Central Command area of responsibility.

The Iranians might view this as more simply extra targets to be taken out, however, as Gulf countries continue to see inbound attacks. Missile alerts have been sounding Wednesday in Saudi Arabia, and again in Bahrain. ISNA reports (via Newsquawk): Drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia; US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and US base in Saudi Arabia targeted:

  • Bahrain has faced almost daily bombardment recently due to hosting the US Fifth Fleet headquarters.
  • Saudi Arabia has been pulled into the firing line after the collapse of a previous multi-year ceasefire with Iranian-backed factions.
US Troops Under Iranian Missiles in Jordan

Soldiers in Jordan seem to be prime targets of Iranian ballistic missiles, in an extremely dangerous situation, after several American soldiers already died there in the past week:

Jordan too continues to see significant inbound projectiles from Iran. Iranian state media has newly announced that F-15 warplanes, drone preparation infrastructure and a helicopter storage facility at Prince Hassan and King Faisal bases were targeted in recent ballistic missile launches.

IRNA news agency claimed that eight new American MQ-9 drones were destroyed and two others "severely damaged" in the attack, and in addition two helicopters were damaged.

The fresh Wednesday morning initial reports of potential further inbound missile on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have pushed oil prices higher.

Rubio on Iran-Led Axis of 'Troublemakers'

Meanwhile Secretary of State Marco says the US is in contact with Saudi officials over the ongoing threat by Yemen's Houthis to attack commercial vessels and disrupt Saudi shipping in the vital Bab al-Mandeb waterway in the Red Sea. This is squeezing global oil further.

"We’ve been engaged with the Saudis a number of times over the last week in regards to that threat. It’s not a new threat, but it’s one that’s manifested itself in the past," he told reporters in his latest remarks.

More evidence of serious damage and destruction at American military outposts in Jordan:

In words which Tehran officials will surely not find terrifying or overly threatening, Rubio continued: "At the gist of that issue is the fact Iran is in the middle of it. Talking about the troublemaker of the region, it’s Iran."

"It’s just another example: the Houthis, Hezbollah, the militias in Iraq, Hamas – this is what Iran spends its money on, not on its people, on supporting terrorist organizations and destabilizing actors in the region," he added in Washington's characteristic 'axis-speak' of 'rogue actors'.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 16:25

Jim Quinn Warns "We've Already Entered This Fourth Turning's Global War..."

Jim Quinn Warns "We've Already Entered This Fourth Turning's Global War..."

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Bruning Platform blog,

“THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.” – Thomas Paine – The American Crisis

“At worst, should at least one desperate country resort to WMDs, the outcome of a great-power war could prove to be even more devastating than that of a civil war. The toll could be almost unimaginable – with multiple cities destroyed, many millions killed, and many tens of millions displaced – all perhaps triggered by some ill-fated combination of the wrong leader making the wrong choice at the wrong time.” – Neil Howe – The Fourth Turning Is Here

My previous two articles about this Fourth TurningProphets, Nomads and a Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards a Bloody Climax in April 2025 and War Phase of This Fourth Turning Has Arrived in July 2025 were progressively more pessimistic about the course of coming events, and things have proceeded along a precarious path towards our own rendezvous with destiny/tragedy. We are closing in on the 18th anniversary of the start of this Crisis epoch in September. The previous Great Depression/WWII Fourth Turning came to its climactic bloody conclusion after seventeen years, but this period of upheaval and disorder looks like it will extend into the early 2030s, just as Strauss & Howe predicted.

After rereading the prior two articles, I was shocked at how drastically the world has transformed in the space of one year and how the chief facilitator for driving events – Donald Trump – has hugely reversed his stated positions from the outset of his presidency. During the first 18 months of his 2nd term in office, Trump has done the exact opposite of what he promised and gone to war with the people most responsible for getting him elected: Elon MuskTucker CarlsonMarjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie, among others. The question is whether this was always his plan, or has he been coerced/bribed by Israel using Epstein file revelations.

At first, I was cautiously optimistic Trump had learned some hard lessons from his first term personnel debacles and the Deep State conspiracy to derail his presidency, along with the provable stealing of the 2020 election through mail-in ballot fraud, rigged voting machines, and judicial interference, resulting in the insertion of a dementia ridden basement dummy as a Potemkin president.

Trump staffed his new administration with what appeared to be loyalists, committed to revealing the truth about the Russiagate conspiracy, the 2020 stolen election, the Epstein files, FBI/CIA coup participants, the Soros/Biden/Clinton/Obama purposeful initiation and funding of the 3rd world invasion of our country to steal elections and initiate economic collapse, USAID as the funder of NGOs committed to destroying our society, the J6 Committee malfeasance, and the massive government fraud in all welfare programs at the Federal and State levels.

With Musk’s DOGE revelations and promises of $2 trillion in savings, the early months of Trump’s presidency seemed promising. He fulfilled his guarantee to shut the border and stopped the hordes of low IQ 3rd world dirtbags from invading our country and overwhelming our social welfare system. With much fanfare (and TV commercials), Kristi Noem began deporting thousands of illegals on a daily basis. Pam Bondi and Kash Patel declared they had all the Epstein files and would be releasing them in their criminal entirety.

But right-wing influencers were given binders with no new Epstein revelations in a February White House PR event. Something started to smell fishy. Trump acted like a Middle East peacemaker, with rhetoric about ending the Gaza genocide and turning it into resort for his wealthy cronies. He held multiple talks with Putin and Zelensky. It looked like ending the Ukraine war and delivering peace on earth might be his legacy.

By June, Trump’s presidency began to unravel, and he started reneging on his promises, having a major falling out with Musk over his Big Beautiful Bloated Bill, and began his infatuation with his Boss Bibi, who told him what to do and when to do it. Trump’s bombast about reducing the national debt and balancing the budget was put to the test with his first budget bill.

In my previous article I had stated it would require tremendous courage on the part of Trump and his congressional majority to institute the billions in DOGE cuts, as it is only government waste, Fed debt creation, and consumers spending money they don’t have on shit they don’t need at 20% interest provided by the Wall Street cabal, that keeps this U.S. Titanic of debt economy afloat. Cutting government spending would guarantee a recession. As expected, cowardly politicians, bought off by special interests, and driven by re-election desires, had no interest in cutting a dime of government spending.

Trump made no effort to reduce the spending earmarked in the Big Beautiful Bill, going along with the continued death march of debt creation. Prior to the bill, the 10-Year CBO forecast was for the national debt to increase by $21 trillion, so essentially accelerating towards fiscal disaster. Trump’s BBB added another $5 trillion to that farcical figure, not exactly “cutting” the budget. The national debt has gone from $36.2 trillion to $39.5 trillion in the first 1.5 years of Trump’s reign of debt.

With the uniparty in agreement, $2 trillion annual deficits are locked in until the debt Ponzi implodes. The MAGA army of maff challenged NPCs obediently applauded for Trump’s 5D chess genius. Musk realized his entire DOGE effort was nothing more than window dressing for Trump to get elected. They had a very public clash, with nasty personal attacks, and a miffed and misled Musk revealed why Trump was not allowing the Epstein files to be released.

This was the first crack in the MAGA narrative dam, while setting in motion the future of full catastrophic collapse over the remainder of his term. His fiscal promises of $2,000 DOGE rebates, $2,000 Tariff rebates, lower inflation, and manufacturing plants and jobs returning to America (we’ve lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump’s inauguration), have proven to be fake news. After ICE killed a couple of protestors, Trump basically threw in the towel and said he wasn’t going to deport the millions of illegal immigrant criminals. Somebody has to pick the lettuce and do the housework of the Epstein class.

But at least we are getting hundreds of electricity and water sucking surveillance centers disguised as data centers, along with hundreds of thousands of flock cameras, violating our 4th Amendment rights 24 hours a day on behalf of the surveillance state. All of Trump’s treachery since June of 2025 appears to be related to the Epstein files and Israel controlling Trump through blackmail, related to his appearance in those files. After railing for years about the Epstein files cover-up, Trump suddenly had no interest in releasing anything. It was suddenly a Democratic hoax. Only a guilty person would make such a dramatic turnabout.

The stonewalling was overcome by Thomas Massie’s Epstein Files Transparency Act, introduced in July 2025, requiring un-redacted files by the FBI to be released. Trump immediately went to war against Massie, utilizing his Israeli billionaire donors, led by Miriam Adelson, to spend over $30 million to defeat him in his primary. Not supporting Zionist genocides, undeclared wars on behalf of Israel and the military industrial complex, $2 trillion deficits, the surveillance state, and child raping billionaires, make you an enemy of the Trump controlled state. After declaring no new wars during his campaign, Trump allowed Bibi to lure him into spending billions to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities during their 12-day war in June 2025.

The bloviator in chief, and his low IQ Fox News Secretary of Defense declared Iran’s nuclear bomb ambitions dead. The White House website was unequivocal in declaring complete and total obliteration of Iran’s supposed nuclear bomb ambitions. Trump saved the world from the imminent nuclear attack on Israel by Iran, just as Bibi had been warning for the last 20 years. This declaration of obliteration happened just over a year ago. What happened between June of 2025 and February of 2026 to change the narrative back to Iran weeks away from having a nuclear bomb? Was Trump lying in June or in February? Since 75% of everything he says is lies, it’s a tough nut to crack.

Despite Trump’s obvious abandonment of his MAGA campaign pledges within several months of ascending to power, CPI was 2.7% by December 2025, GDP was 2% for 2025 despite a government shutdown, mortgage rates had dropped to 6%, oil was $57 a barrel and most people were paying less than $3 a gallon for gas, Trump and Putin met in Alaska and it looked like the Ukraine War might wind down, but this proved to just be a phony interlude in this Fourth Turning Crisis cycle of catastrophe. As soon as the calendar flipped the page to 2026, Trump decided to light the fuse on this global tinderbox of regional animosity, religious hatred, and battle for currency dominance, military supremacy, and control of global oil supplies.

After blowing up dozens of speedboats, 1,300 miles from the U.S. mainland, supposedly trafficking drugs from Venezuela, Trump decided to kidnap the sitting president of Venezuela on January 3, based on laughable drug trafficking charges, considering the CIA has trafficked more drugs into the U.S. than any organization in history. Trump openly admitted he was taking control of Venezuela’s oil. There are a lot of bad dictators/presidents in the world, but you will only be taken out if you don’t have nukes and you are sitting on top of the world’s largest oil reserve. Trump was promising $2 a gallon gasoline, now that he controlled Venezuela as a vassal state.

The best laid plans don’t always pan out, as oil rose from $57 per barrel on January 3 to $67 per barrel on February 27, the day before Trump launched a shameful decapitation surprise attack on Iran while Bibi’s two Israeli agent envoys (Witkoff, Kushner) pretended to be negotiating a deal, taking out most of their political and military leadership. He actually thought he could pull off another Maduro three day conflict, but stated publicly on March 1 it would last 4 or 5 weeks. I wonder if he ever watched Get Smart in his younger days, because his estimate has proven to be slightly optimistic as we approach month 5 of a conflict showing only signs of growing wider and more deadly.

As we slog through this increasingly chaotic Fourth Turning, I’m always aware of Strauss and Howe’s warning about what could befall the world during this crisis.

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

In case you haven’t noticed, Trump’s promise of $2 a gallon gas might be a little optimistic. By mid-April oil reached $119 per barrel, over 100% more than at the start of the year. Here in PA. I paid $2.89 per gallon on the day before Trump’s war of choice on behalf of Israel, and within two months was paying $4.79 per gallon. Through a combination of draining our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 43 year low, Scott Bessent and his Wall Street cronies manipulating the derivatives market to suppress the price of oil, Trump making false statements on Truth Social about imminent agreements, and the fake MOU which would never be honored, they were able to maneuver the price of oil back to $68 per barrel, despite the 20% ongoing reduction in global oil flow.

The MOU was never going to be honored by the U.S. The purpose was to buy time to re-arm and move more troops to the Middle East. Smoke, mirrors, and draining our “emergency” reserves in order to preserve the appearance of normality and strength is a pitiful way to run an empire. Trump’s true measure of success is how rich he can make his billionaire cronies by driving the stock market to new heights, no matter the impact on average “non-billionaire” Americans.

Front running his own Truth Social posts and stock purchases is just icing on the cake for the most corrupt president in U.S. history. He and his family reaped (pillaged?) billions peddling worthless meme coins, while the fleeced MAGA NPCs lost 99% of their “investments”. It was readily apparent Trump insiders were using insider knowledge to bet on polymarket or derivatives market to either go long or short in the oil and stock markets based on his future Truth Social posts, making billions in the process.

Shockingly, no one has been investigated or arrested. How does Trump find time to do president stuff when he is making 58 stock trades per day? Mussolini was the modern-day representative of merging the state with business to form a fascist ruling structure. Trump makes Benito looks like a minor leaguer, sinking $27 billion of our tax dollars into public corporations, while his sons create companies which are awarded billions in government contracts. Trump has personally invested in at least 20 public companies and then made positive Truth Social posts about them, driving their stock prices higher. This is blatant corruption and stock market manipulation, but the willfully ignorant masses are too distracted by electronic bread and circuses to be bothered. Free market capitalism is dead, but crony corporate fascism is alive and thriving. It’s good to be in the top .01%, or friends and family of Trump.

Everyone knows Iran was not close to producing a nuclear bomb, as seventeen government agencies told Trump prior to his surprise attack on Iran, at the behest of Bibi. The bullshit narrative about the Iranian government murdering 30,000, then 40,000, then 100,000, and now 52,000 protestors was also provably false. Trump admitted the protests were enabled by Mossad and the CIA. Netanyahu has been declaring Iran two weeks away from a nuclear bomb for thirty years. If we had really obliterated their secret nuclear sites in June 2025, like Trump and Hegseth declared, how could they again be two weeks away from a nuclear bomb?

Everything about this war on Iran is based on lies, mistruths, and propaganda, as the true motive is to further Netanyahu’s Greater Israel project of taking Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, while defanging Iran and Turkey. Netanyahu convinced Trump it would be a cakewalk, or more likely, threatened Trump with revelations from the Epstein files. The assassination of Charlie Kirk for beginning to reveal the truth about Israeli control of the U.S. government and genocide in Gaza was also a warning shot across Trump’s bow. Now Bibi is declaring Turkey a threat to Israel’s grand plan. If there is a more despicable human being on the planet than Netanyahu, I can’t think of one.

When you are in a $39 trillion hole and already digging $2 trillion deeper on an annual basis, maybe you shouldn’t start a war costing $1 billion per day, with a current price tag of over $100 billion. That doesn’t even scratch the surface of the long-term impact. Experts at Harvard University warn factoring in munitions replenishment, base repairs across the Middle East, and lifetime veterans’ care could push the long-term price tag well past $1 trillion. In addition, the drastic increase in fuel prices, overall inflation, and interest costs will total approximately $135 billion on an annual basis, or $1,000 per household.

According to Trump, it’s a small price to pay for Israel, since they control our president and congress. While you choose between food, fuel or medicine, trying to survive another month, at least Trump, his family of grifters, his billionaire child raping cronies, the Wall Street cabal, and the AIPAC funded multi-millionaires in congress, are doing just fine.

Despite being a bombastic, narcissistic, egomaniacal self-promoter, I can’t believe he was naïve enough to believe the bullshit about Iran being weeks away from attacking Israel with a nuclear weapon. He had already declared Iran’s nuclear facilities obliterated and promised his MAGA minions no new wars. So, it seems inexplicable for him to willingly start World War III, knowing it would reignite inflation and cause tremendous hardship upon the average Americans who voted for him. Therefore, the only logical conclusion is he started this conflagration unwillingly.

After Attorney General Pam Bondi released an initial batch of files in February 2025 showing Trump on flight logs, Trump began dismissing further file requests as a Democratic “hoax” and began stonewalling further releases. But his nemesis Thomas Massie embarrassed him by pushing through the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The pressure from survivor testimonials and bipartisan congressional coercion forced his hand and he signed the bill.

The partial release of heavily redacted files revealed horrific evidence of rape, torture, pedophilia, child sacrifice, trafficking, bribery, and an ultra-rich Epstein class of deviants running this world. Trump’s minions at the DOJ and FBI have since declared this case closed, with no arrests, no naming of any loathsome pedophiles, and most importantly no further Trump revelations.

Since Epstein, who didn’t kill himself, was a Mossad agent, there is a high likelihood any perverted or criminal behavior on the part of Trump throughout his playboy life is documented and captured on film, in the possession of Netanyahu. Trump has spent 2026 raging, pillaging, bombing, and performing on the world stage as a court jester in Netanyahu’s game of thrones. His actions and words grow more desperate and unhinged by the day.

As a Prophet generation leader, along with Putin, Xi, and Netanyahu, he will continue to be a catalyst for setting in motion events which will lead to much bloodshed, chaos, death, financial collapse, and end of the American empire. A toxic mixture of vanity, pomposity, privilege, anger, advanced age, and narcissistic personality disorder, is a bad combination in a world leader capable of blowing up the world. Desperate people do desperate things, and Trump’s recent pronouncements appear desperate.

The linear thinking dupes, who choose to not understand the cyclical nature of history, were lulled into think the MOU signed by Iran and Trump on June 17 would deescalate the war and lead to peace in our time. That is not how Fourth Turnings are resolved. They intensify until all-out war, with millions of deaths, decides the true winners and losers. There are no compromise solutions during a Fourth Turning.

The 14 points in the MOU were essentially the U.S. admitting strategic defeat, which is what has happened. Trump tried to spin it as an American victory, but only his most adoring MAGA NPCs (who probably believed the Q bullshit during his 1st term) believed his lies. The MOU wasn’t worth the paper it was written on, and full-scale war, with the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed, has been raging for the last ten days. Trump has trapped himself in an unwinnable war of attrition, with no accessible escape hatch.

On February 27 the Strait of Hormuz was open, oil was $67 per barrel, all U.S. bases in the Middle East were functional, inflation was trending lower, interest rates were trending lower, the global economy was functioning smoothly, the SPR had 415 million barrels of oil, we hadn’t spent $113 billion we don’t have, and Trump wasn’t Bibi’s bitch, yet.

Today, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil is $86 a barrel and heading higher, we’ve drained 110 million barrels of oil from the SPR (lowest level since 1983), every U.S. military base in the Gulf has been damaged or obliterated (tens of billions in damage), inflation hit 4%, the 10 year Treasury at 4.64% is the highest of Trump’s presidency, we continue to spend $1 billion per day on an unwinnable war (with a $1 trillion long-term price tag), the global economy is in shambles, with famine and economic depression now baked into the cake Trump has baked. Iran, with the help of Russia, China, Iraq, Yemen and other allies in the region are accurately targeting U.S. bases and troops, resulting in mass casualties, which Hegseth covers up. Satellite pictures don’t lie, unless the U.S. government coerces satellite companies to not show the truth.

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

I have an uneasy feeling Strauss & Howe’s haunting warning from nearly forty years ago is currently playing out in real time. We are already in the midst of World War III, but the masses are too dumbed down by their government school indoctrination; too distracted by their Igadgets, betting apps, likes & followers on their social media, and going further into debt trying to appear successful; too brainwashed by propaganda; and too apathetic to care, as their country and the world accelerate towards debasement and total ruin.

Propping up this Potemkin empire by sinking $5 billion per day further into debt, while utilizing financial derivatives schemes to elevate the stock market and suppress the oil and gold markets, and initiating an AI surveillance gulag state through the construction of hundreds of surveillance centers and tracking our every movement through their Flock cameras, appears to be a desperate last ditch effort by the Deep State billionaire globalist Agenda 2030 overlords to retain their power, control, and wealth. If it takes World War III and the deaths of billions to achieve their goal, so be it, in their warped world view.

Most people are trapped in their normalcy bias, minimizing the threats steamrolling directly towards them, while delaying the necessary logical steps they should be taking to prepare. I’m reminded of the outbreak of World War II when Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939, with Great Britain and France declaring war on Germany two days later. Then virtually nothing happened for the next nine months. The people in London, Paris and Berlin acted as if life would go on normally, with no consequences from the declarations of war. People in the U.S. observed this odd European dispute from a distance, still trying to emerge from their Great Depression.

Their normalcy bias was shattered by a blitzkrieg, nightly bombings, Barbarossa, and Pearl Harbor. Over 65 million would die. I believe Matt Bracken’s observations about this being an energy world war, extending from Kiev to Hormuz, with a likelihood of it expanding into Europe, Turkey, and Taiwan, as the three numbskulls running France, Germany, and Britain are willing to go to war against Russia to distract their populace from their decisions to encourage hordes of 3rd world dreck to destroy their countries from within.

The Great Reset Epstein class see World War III as an opportunity, just as they saw the Covid Plandemic as an opportunity to further their new world order plan of depopulation, CBDCs, 15-minute gulags, 24-hour surveillance, and social credit scoring to keep the peasants controlled, subservient, and neutered. Freedom, liberty, and living without restrictions are not in their master plan. Thus far, Putin has acted the most statesmanlike among the Prophet generation world leaders, but with the EU/NATO/Trump increasingly deadly provocations in waging a proxy war on behalf of Zelensky, have pushed him to his limit.

Make no mistake, this proxy war would not be ongoing without U.S. munitions and satellite targeting. Putin is also being pressured by hawks within his country to take more drastic measures against the EU psychopaths in suits trying to destroy Russia. His attacks on Kiev have become more frequent and more deadly. If his NATO enemies push him too far, he may directly attack within the EU, then all hell would break loose.

Trump has increased attacks on Iran infrastructure and is being pushed by his lying neo-con Israeli handlers to nuke an underground mountain fortress where Israel claims Iran is reconstituting their nuclear program. More Israeli lies. If a nuke is utilized, then Russia and China may be forced to actively intervene on Iran’s side.

When someone starts acting as desperate and deranged as Trump has been behaving lately, the citizens of this country, and the world, should be fearful and worried what kind of reckless irrational act an 80-year-old vain egomaniac could make to set in motion worldwide destruction. It’s like the world is at the mercy of a crazed monkey trapped in a room full of dynamite, lighting matches. With a true psychopath like Netanyahu pulling his strings, expect an enormous false flag event to trigger the final phase of this Fourth Turning.

We have already entered this Fourth Turning’s global war, and the average American has no clue. As Thomas Paine declared, this is no time for summer soldiers and sunshine patriots. The apathetic, ignorant, dumbed down masses, who have been propagandized into believing their government and sedated with drugs, toxic foodstuff, and electronic baubles, will be violently shaken from their self-induced stupor, once their comfortable lives are shattered by economic, financial, and social collapse of a tyrannical system designed to enrich the few at the expense of the many.

There are evil men ruling this world. These oligarchal billionaire globalist psychopaths treat you like parasites that must be extinguished for their plans to succeed. They appear to be invincible, but they are few and we are many. As darkness descends upon our world, many trials and tribulations await, as there is no voting our way out of this crisis. It will require force of arms.

“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

King George and his empire seemed invincible in 1776 during the first American Fourth Turning, when Paine compared tyranny to hell. The remainder of this Fourth Turning will try our souls, but our fortitude and courage will matter, along with the choices we make.  Conquering tyranny will be bloody and require good men to do bad things, but will make our triumph glorious, on par with Washington’s victory over the British empire. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 16:20

Shirley You Must Be Joking: Groups Sue For Communication Records Linked To Somali Daycare Fraud Claims

Shirley You Must Be Joking: Groups Sue For Communication Records Linked To Somali Daycare Fraud Claims

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

A coalition of civil-rights groups sued the Trump administration on Monday, seeking to force the release of internal communications between federal health officials and a YouTube journalist who accused Somali-run Minnesota daycare centers of fraud.

Independent Journalist Nick Shirley speaks at Freedomfest in Las Vegas, on July 9, 2026. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The viral videos helped spur a since-abandoned effort to freeze childcare funding in five Democratic-led states.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) rescinded a $10 billion freeze on childcare subsidies and social services funding for five states governed by Democrats: California, Illinois, Colorado, New York, and Minnesota.

The suit, filed in federal court on July 20 by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), its Illinois and Colorado chapters, the National Women's Law Center, and the National Center for Law and Economic Justice, accused HHS of failing to respond to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request filed in March, according to a press statement.

The request includes communication records between federal officials and YouTube creator and journalist Nick Shirley, whose viral video was publicly amplified and "credited by senior administration officials as the basis for the restrictions," the statement said.

"The public deserves to know why the Trump administration is restricting access to critical child care and family assistance funds that hundreds of thousands of families rely on," said Linda Morris, senior staff attorney at the ACLU Women's Rights Project, according to the statement.

"These restrictions are a threat to the very programs that help families stay afloat and enable parents to work, attend school, and care for their children. We are going to court to ensure the public gets the transparency that federal law requires."

YouTuber Nick Shirley's viral video raised the alarm about fraud at Somali-run daycares in Minnesota late in 2025.

Shirley claimed that Somali-run daycares appeared to be devoid of children, raising concerns that the centers could be fraudulently billing government programs for absent or nonexistent children.

Minnesota state lawmakers have said that whistleblowers have been punished for voicing concerns about Somalis committing fraud and have been accused of racism or Islamophobia because Somalis are black Muslims.

In January, some Somalis told The Epoch Times that they think fraud is "occurring on a large scale" in Minnesota. Most, however, said the accusations appear to be aimed at vilifying Somalis as a group.

The Trump administration froze $10 billion in funds to Minnesota as well as California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, and New York in January this year, citing concerns about fraudulent spending.

Earlier this month, it released the funds.

HHS officials said in letters to the states that they were rescinding the freezes on the funds, which were an attempt to compel the states to provide data proving that the funds would be used for American families, rather than illegal immigrants, according to documents filed with a federal court in New York on July 13.

In March, the ACLU civil rights groups sent a FOIA request seeking records concerning the adoption, implementation, and enforcement of the nationwide Defend the Spend policy and the sweeping five-state funding freeze, which it said targeted Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), and Social Services Block Grant (SSBG) dollars.

It said that the administration had "refused to disclose information to the public about its actions, including through its sudden reversal of the funding freeze in an apparent attempt to avoid being required to produce officials' communications about these attacks in pending litigation."

"This only heightens the need for transparency into how the Defend the Spend policy and funding freeze were adopted and who was involved," it added.

Shirley delivered testimony at the Senate Committee Hearing on July 15, where he said that Minnesotans reached out to him "talking about the fraud that was taking place inside of their community."

"We went to the daycares, autism centers, and healthcare providers, and to my surprise, the businesses were not operating how a typical business would operate," he said.

He said the first daycare he went to was in an industrial building.

"There was no playground, no children footprints in the snow. They had all the windows blacked out. The doorbell was broken, and the sign said 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., yet there was no one to be found," he added.

"This daycare in 2025 had received over $1 million in CCAP [Child Care Assistance Program] funding. This continued to be a pattern as we went to other daycare locations."

The Epoch Times has contacted HHS and Nick Shirley for comment.

Children watch television at ABC Learning Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 31, 2025. Mark Vancleave /AP Photo Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 15:45

OpenAI Admits Model Escaped Containment And Hacked Hugging Face To Cheat On A Test

OpenAI Admits Model Escaped Containment And Hacked Hugging Face To Cheat On A Test

Authored by Felix Ng via CoinTelegraph.com,

OpenAI disclosed Tuesday that a combination of its AI models, including GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable unreleased model, escaped its testing environment and hacked AI startup Hugging Face last week to cheat on a test meant to measure their capabilities.

In a blog post, OpenAI said the evaluation was designed to operate in a highly isolated environment with restricted network access. The models, however, found a way to gain internet access through a zero-day vulnerability in an internally-hosted third party software, OpenAI said.

Earlier this week, we detected and responded to an intrusion into part of our production infrastructure. This one was different from anything we had handled before in one important way: it was driven, end to end, by an autonomous AI agent system – and we detected and dissected it largely with AI of our own.

Hugging Face tried to respond but they were initially held back by the fact that the most advanced models at their disposal treated defense as attack and refused to work with Hugging Face. HF thus had to turn to open models–specifically GLM 5.2, a Chinese open-weight model run on their own infrastructure. Note the irony: HF had to use a Chinese model to defend themselves because the American models refused to help. The irony gets deeper.

This was not a production model spontaneously turning hostile. It was a capable model with guardrails off and specifically told to win a hacking test - doing whatever it took to win.

The models were being run through an internal benchmark called ExploitGym, a test of long, multi-step hacking tasks, with their cyber safety refusals deliberately lowered for the evaluation.

“After gaining Internet access, the models inferred that Hugging Face potentially hosted models, datasets and solutions for ExploitGym,” OpenAi continued.

“Knowing this, the model searched for and successfully found ways to gain access to secret information that it could use to cheat the evaluation.” 

Hugging Face is a platform for hosting AI models and datasets.

[ZH: we asked Grok to simplify what just happened: It’s kind of like a kid who’s supposed to stay in the classroom taking a test… but instead sneaks out the window, runs to the teacher’s office, and copies the answer sheet. ]

On Friday, it disclosed that its internal datasets and service credentials were compromised in a hack, which it attributed to an autonomous AI agent system.

Hugging Face said it has fixed the vulnerability that was used during the cyberattack.

Meanwhile, OpenAI on Tuesday said the models that escaped the testing environment were all tuned with “reduced cyber refusals,” meaning fewer cybersecurity guardrails. 

“We consider this incident to be an unprecedented cyber incident, involving state-of-the-art cyber capabilities, and are responding accordingly.”  

OpenAI warns of risks from “long-horizon” AI models 

On Monday, OpenAI said it paused internal deployment of a “long-horizon” AI model after finding it was repeatedly trying to work around constraints. 

 It warned that AI that is trained for long-running tasks has a higher chance of taking “unwanted actions.”

“Models that can work autonomously for long periods can take on difficult, open-ended problems. But the same persistence that makes them useful also gives them more opportunities to take unwanted actions—and to do so in ways that evaluations intended for shorter-horizon models may miss.” 

As AI models grow more capable, questions are emerging over whether their development and access should be more tightly controlled, especially when systems designed for controlled testing are able to find ways to bypass safeguards. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 15:42

"He Was Very Close To Being Arrested": Epstein's Paris Model Scout Found Dead At Home, Weeks After CNN Appearance

"He Was Very Close To Being Arrested": Epstein's Paris Model Scout Found Dead At Home, Weeks After CNN Appearance

Daniel Siad, the 69-year-old Paris modeling scout whose name appears nearly 2,000 times in the DOJ's Epstein files, was found dead at his home in Colombes, northwest of Paris, on Monday. The deputy public prosecutor at Nanterre, Marie-Celine Lawrysz, confirmed the death Wednesday and said an investigation into the cause was opened that evening, with an autopsy to follow.

Which is to say: officially, nobody knows anything yet. Siad's lawyer told Reuters that "Daniel Siad never stopped proclaiming his innocence" - and that her client died of a heart attack. To AFP, she was more careful, saying that if it was a heart attack, the strain and anxiety of the case will have played its part. The autopsy, presumably, will referee. And if that first statement sounds familiar, it should: when Jean-Luc Brunel was found dead in 2022, his lawyers announced that "Jean-Luc Brunel never stopped declaring his innocence." The French defense bar evidently keeps the line on file.

For over a decade, per the document dumps Congress pried out of the DOJ under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, Siad operated as a one-man logistics chain into Epstein's orbit. In a 2009 email he pitched a 5-foot-8 Latvian model: "she is 20 years old but she looks younger." In a 2014 note he discussed a 15-year-old French girl - parents reportedly thrilled about her modeling prospects - along with 16- and 17-year-olds, and compared his trade to angling: "some time I cache quick , some time no fish" [sic]. Files reviewed by CNN show Epstein paid Siad tens of thousands of dollars over the years; other messages flagged a young French woman in Marrakesh who'd be happy to meet him, and in 2018 Siad offered to scout the financier a young, good-looking assistant.

Here was the legal picture on the day he died: Siad was under investigation in France over allegations of rape and human trafficking - at least five accusers, per French media. One woman told the BBC he was "essentially a professional trafficker." The first criminal complaint landed only in February, from former Swedish model Ebba Karlsson, now in her fifties, who alleges Siad raped her when she was 20 and then introduced her to Gerald Marie, the former European chief of Elite - whom Karlsson and several other women have also accused of rape, allegations Marie has repeatedly denied. Siad denied everything as well, and - as his lawyer correctly notes - he was never formally placed under investigation, the mise en examen threshold at which French magistrates decide the evidence is serious. Not because the process cleared him; because the process never reached him. Per AFP, Siad had not yet been questioned by investigators when he died, though he had said he wanted to give his version of events.

"He was very close to being arrested," Karlsson said Wednesday.

He will now give his version of events to no one. And here is the part that will launch a thousand posts: six weeks ago, Siad sat for an on-camera CNN interview in which he insisted Epstein - a convicted sex offender for the entire back half of their collaboration - was a free man who had served his time and had always been thoroughly professional. He said he had no reason to believe that two women he'd recommended to Epstein - women who told CNN, on the record, that Epstein abused them - had ever been harmed. He claimed to have believed Epstein was a casting director for Victoria's Secret and MC2, a claim CNN could find no evidence for. His summary of the whole arrangement: "He was such a powerful person. And how can I not trust him?"

He gave that interview in mid-June, yet didn't make it through July.

That makes four... 

  • Jeffrey Epstein, August 2019, Metropolitan Correctional Center: found dead in his cell weeks after his arrest (or he was smuggled out after being swapped with the corpse of a homeless guy - or Hillary Clinton's brother, so the kids say), with the cameras outside malfunctioning and the guards asleep - guards who later admitted falsifying their logs. Ruled a suicide, a ruling re-certified in 2025 by FBI leadership ("I've seen the whole file, he killed himself," Deputy Director Bongino assured Fox viewers), which settled the matter for approximately no one.
  • Jean-Luc Brunel, February 2022, La Sante prison, Paris: the other French modeling agent in Epstein's orbit, found hanged in his cell while awaiting trial on charges involving the rape of minors - days after Prince Andrew reached his settlement with Virginia Giuffre. As we noted at the time ("Epstein 'Pimp' Jean-Luc Brunel Found Hanged In Paris Prison"), "the jokes practically write themselves." Ruled a suicide.
  • Mark Middleton, May 2022: the Clinton special assistant who had signed Epstein into the White House, found dead in Arkansas. Ruled a suicide.

And now Daniel Siad - the second Epstein-linked figure from the French modeling world to die suddenly with an investigation inbound and his testimony never taken. Former model "Juliette G.," who says Siad recruited her for Epstein back in 2004, told Al Jazeera that for victims, Siad represented a possible avenue to finally "shed light on what happened." Except now, he's unable to speak in the Nanterre morgue.

Then there's Virginia Giuffre - Epstein's most consequential accuser who died at her farm in Western Australia in April 2025, at 41 - ruled a suicide by police and described that way by her own family, though as we reported last month, sixteen academics have since petitioned the state coroner for a formal public inquest. Giuffre notably traveled to Paris in 2021 to testify against Brunel in person and help keep him behind bars. 

Siad's death lands as the Epstein affair continues to result in zero arrests: the House Oversight email dumps last November, the DOJ's mandated releases under the Transparency Act, the cascading resignations among the great and the good, New Mexico's freshly launched probe into what actually happened at Zorro Ranch - which we covered in February - and the Washington Post's own June investigation into the modeling-world pipeline that kept feeding Epstein introductions long after his 2008 conviction: a Swedish scout hunting teenagers, a Russian model coaching him on which women would be easy. Siad was one of the very few members of that network willing to sit in front of a camera and explain himself.

On a pretty short timeline, the survival rate for Epstein associates drops to zero...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 15:25

Video Game Market Tanks As Studio, Console Stocks Sink ; Can GTA VI Revive Industry?

Video Game Market Tanks As Studio, Console Stocks Sink ; Can GTA VI Revive Industry?

Video game stocks have been battered so far this year, with Electronic Arts the only major name in positive territory and even then only marginally higher. The Roundhill Video Games ETF is down about 14.8% YTD, highlighting industry-wide weakness as investors await a potential revival sparked by Take-Two's release of Grand Theft Auto VI this upcoming fall.

The latest report from Bloomberg, citing new data from market research company Circana, shows the video game market in the US contracted by 21% in June, its steepest monthly decline since 2022. The decline was driven by higher hardware prices, which softened demand, and by a difficult comparison with Nintendo’s Switch 2 launch one year ago.

Console spending plunged 62%, while content purchases fell to $3.9 billion, below levels recorded before the Switch 2 debut. Subscriptions were the only content category to grow. Total industry spending was down 1% for the year.

Nintendo continued expanding the Switch 2 catalog, but rising memory and component costs are compressing margins. Its shares have fallen more than 50% from last summer’s record, and the company has announced global price increases for the fall.

It's not just Nintendo facing margin erosion because of the memory chip shortage that is forcing companies to raise prices; Xbox and PlayStation are also affected - and these price hikes come just four months before the next iteration of Grand Theft Auto is released.

Related:

In recent weeks, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma announced 3,000 layoffs, warning, “Our business today is not healthy. We must reset Xbox.” Against that dismal backdrop, whether Grand Theft Auto VI can single-handedly revive an industry remains an open question.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 14:40

Google's Flagship Still Can't Ship - So It Launched Token Austerity And A Hacking Model Only Governments Can Use

Google's Flagship Still Can't Ship - So It Launched Token Austerity And A Hacking Model Only Governments Can Use

Alphabet reports second-quarter earnings after today's close - the first hyperscaler print since cheap Chinese tokens knocked the semiconductor index into a bear market. So naturally, Google chose the eve of that report to ship three new AI models, none of which is the one it promised.

Getty Images

The Tuesday launch consisted of Gemini 3.6 Flash, a cheaper workhorse whose headline feature is that it consumes fewer tokens; Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, a high-throughput model built for volume; and Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, a vulnerability-hunting model that ordinary users are not permitted to touch. Conspicuously absent: Gemini 3.5 Pro, the flagship Google unveiled at I/O in May with a promised June launch, which has now missed multiple targets.

Then there is Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, which Google says achieves top-tier performance at finding, verifying, and patching software vulnerabilities inside its CodeMender agent - and which will be available exclusively to governments and vetted partners through a limited-access pilot, on account of what the company calls the technology's dual-use nature. Which is of course aimed at competing with Anthropic's Mythos. Google shipped strengthened Frontier Safety safeguards against CBRN and cyberattack misuse in the same release.

The Flagship That Isn't

According to Bloomberg, Pro was held back after falling short of Google's internal targets, particularly on coding, and a late-June attempt to rescue it by refreshing the training data produced disappointing results. The official line is now that Pro is "testing with partners" and will ship when ready - which is to say, there is no date.

The scoreboard is not kind in the meantime. Google currently has no model in the public top ten. Inside roughly a week, xAI shipped Grok 4.5, OpenAI shipped three versions of GPT-5.6, and Moonshot shipped Kimi K3, while Anthropic's Fable 5 sits atop the leaderboards. The verdict from the demand side is the same: AI-native firms canvassed by UBS at its Menlo Park event this month named Anthropic's Opus 4.8 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 as the models they consider functionally superior. Google did not come up. The delay also affects a major customer - as Apple uses Gemini to power parts of Siri in iOS 27. Oops. 

Selling Fewer Tokens

The models Google did ship do tell an interesting story... The central pitch for 3.6 Flash is that it reduces output token usage by 17% versus its predecessor on the Artificial Analysis Index - and by as much as 65% on the DeepSWE coding benchmark, where it burns barely a third of what 3.5 Flash did - while taking fewer reasoning steps and tool calls to finish multi-step work. Flash-Lite runs at 350 output tokens per second and is priced at $0.30 per million input tokens and $2.50 per million output.

A year ago the industry's pitch was maximum intelligence at any price, and enterprise buyers obliged by tokenmaxxing their way through nine-figure AI budgets - until they realized the return on this was abysmal.

The term of art now, per the AI-native firms UBS hosted in Menlo Park this month, is "value-maxxing" - which maybe they should have tried first. Now it's all about model routing, dynamically dropping specific tasks down to cheaper non-frontier models, as table stakes rather than a feature. On top of that, one week after Moonshot's Kimi K3 triggered the chip complex's DeepSeek 2.0 moment - and with UBS math we detailed weeks ago putting Chinese models are producing roughly 95% of frontier capability for 10% of the cost. So - the deflation is now the product. As an aside, Moonshot has been rationing new Kimi K3 subscriptions and API access on capacity constraints while Alibaba teases its next Qwen release: the cheap end of the market is supply-constrained because everyone is hopping on the train. 

The bulls have an answer, and in fairness it is not a stupid one - a hedge fund CIO argued in these pages just last week that the cheap-versus-premium debate misses a raw shortage of intelligence with AI barely diffused through the economy. UBS lands in a similar place, arguing the trade is not breaking but maturing into a multi-model, efficiency-obsessed phase in which demand gets reallocated rather than destroyed. Perhaps. But that thesis gets put to the test tonight when Alphabet reports. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 13:20

Abandoned Navy Base Costs Taxpayers $340,000 A Year For Internet Nobody Uses

Abandoned Navy Base Costs Taxpayers $340,000 A Year For Internet Nobody Uses

Authored by Matt White via TaskandPurpose.com,

The mostly abandoned neighborhoods on Adak Island, Alaska, were once home to 5,000 Navy sailors and their families. But after 40 years as a supply depot, Naval Air Facility Adak closed in 1997, leaving scores of homes and buildings behind. Today, a small community of government workers and Alaska Native families have turned the streets and buildings of the former base into the town of Adak.

The island, far out on the Aleutian Island chain, is so isolated and decayed that Marines occasionally return to simulate hard-to-resupply expeditionary operations or urban chemical warfare among its abandoned buildings. The civilian population, now well below 100, can only reach the island on occasional civilian flights that land on the Navy’s forgotten runway.

But while nearly all of the 300-odd former Navy buildings in Adak are empty and many are collapsing, the U.S. government pays an Anchorage firm $340,000 per year to maintain internet access to them.

An investigation by the Anchorage Daily News and ProPublica published Monday found that an internet provider collects $340,000 every year to keep fairly slow “broadband” internet service active for the town now on the former Navy base.

“After the Navy shipped out, hurricane-force Aleutian winds pried homes apart,” wrote Kyle Hopkins for the Anchorage Daily News. “The worst of it is in a beachfront neighborhood called ‘Officer’s Country’ on old city maps. Bathroom mirrors and toilets and kitchen tables stand exposed to the rain in homes cleaved in half like dollhouses.”

While “raiding” abandoned buildings on the former Navy base in Adak, Alaska, Marines treat a simulated casualty during Arctic Expeditionary Capabilities Exercise in 2019. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Tia D. Carr.

But even Navy-built buildings now open to the elements with missing walls and roofs, reporters found, were listed on the internet provider’s roster.

The joint investigation was published as part of an ongoing series by Hopkins on internet access in remote Alaska. Adak was Hopkins’ first review of a community built around an abandoned military base.

Hopkins and a photographer flew to Adak, where many buildings on the former Navy base are uninhabitable, with collapsing walls and roofs, from years without repairs in the bitter weather of the Aleutian Islands. Hopkins visited every address on the old Navy base listed as receiving taxpayer-funded internet service.

But Hopkins reported that he found that nearly all residents use Starlink satellite internet. Blanketing the base, he reported not one customer for the tax-funded broadband.

The federal program, Hopkins reported, is paid for by the Universal Service Fund, a multi-billion-dollar effort administered by the Federal Communications Commission and funded as a small fee on nearly all consumer phone bills. The fund is intended to deliver internet to hard-to-reach rural customers.

Though the buildings on Adak were built by the Navy, the service has no current connection to the town or the pricey internet service.

Closed bases meet varying fates

Adak is one of scores of closed military installations that dot the country. Many have found new lives, like Naval Training Center Baldwin Park, Florida, and Lowry Air Force Base in Denver, Colorado, which are today mixed-use developments with thousands of homes, shopping and businesses. When Hurricane Andrew destroyed Homestead Air Force Base in 1992, a section was repurposed as a major racetrack (other parts were recommissioned as a reserve base in 2003).

Abandoned missile silos in the Midwest have been rebuilt as homes and museums — though some remain dangerously abandoned.

Much of the town of Adak is based on jobs created by federal clean-up of the old base, along with other federal agencies that now oversee federal land on the otherwise uninhabited island.

But the town may have a military future. Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan has led a campaign to move Navy assets to Alaska, which could include reoccupying Adak. Last summer, Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo called for a revival of the base. Forces there, he said, would provide U.S. forces a first line of defense against Russian aggression to “gain time and distance on any force capability that’s looking to penetrate,” Paparo said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

Though Adak would be a remote assignment, those sent to the cold, windy island would at least know they’d have internet access.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 13:05

Can SpaceX Fire On All Cylinders?

Can SpaceX Fire On All Cylinders?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

SpaceX’s June IPO raised $75 billion, resulting in an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. SpaceX, encompassing its launch business, Starlink, and the recently merged xAI, peaked at a $2.5 trillion market cap in its first week of trading, briefly tying it with Amazon as the fifth-largest publicly traded company. After only a month, the enthusiasm is rapidly fading.

Perhaps most amazing of all, the fanfare is occurring despite SpaceX producing a net loss of nearly $5 billion in 2025. Based on its $1.84 trillion market cap, investors are clearly not worried about the present. They are excitedly pricing in astronomical growth for SpaceX.

To evaluate SpaceX from a fundamental perspective, investors need to quantify the implied growth in its valuation and compare it with their own and market forecasts. In this article, we attempt to help them by providing context for their growth expectations, using Amazon’s history as a proxy.

Amazon, like SpaceX, was priced at expensive valuations and ultimately delivered on those expectations. Initial Amazon investors who held through the dot-com crash and years of zero earnings have been rewarded roughly 3,300-fold, amounting to about 32% annualized for nearly three decades.

So, the question we pose: what does the Amazon playbook require of SpaceX?

Amazon

Amazon went public in May 1997 at $18 per share, valuing the online bookseller at $438 million. Revenue that year was $148 million. The market was pricing its shares at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 3x. At the time, the ratio was generous for a money-losing start-up, but defensible given that Amazon was doubling revenue every year. Importantly, those who envisioned that Amazon was much more than an online bookstore and appreciated its growth potential must have thought its price-to-sales ratio was dirt cheap.

What followed was one of the greatest periods of sustained revenue expansion in corporate history. Amazon crossed $19 billion in annual revenue in 2008, only eleven years after going public with $148 million in revenue. In 2025, Amazon generated $716 billion in revenue, putting it on par with Walmart as the highest-revenue company in the US. From its IPO to today, revenue has grown nearly 5,000-fold.

That trajectory is nearly unprecedented. Can SpaceX also fire on all cylinders?

SpaceX Today vs. Amazon Then

As the graph above shows, Amazon generated approximately $19.2 billion in revenue in 2008, nearly identical to SpaceX’s $18.7 billion in 2025. In 2008, Amazon’s market cap was slightly under $40 billion, implying a P/S multiple slightly above 2x. SpaceX, with a $1.84 trillion market cap and $18.7 billion in sales, trades at a P/S nearing 100x. The market is pricing SpaceX at approximately 50 times the multiple it gave Amazon at the same revenue level.

While the ratio difference sounds extreme, there are reasons to argue SpaceX deserves a premium:

  • Its rapidly growing Starlink business generates $4.4 billion in operating income, with revenue compounding at a 50% growth rate. However, as we share in the first graphic below, its revenue growth is slowing, and average revenue per customer is declining.

  • The reusable launch business accounts for over 50% of orbital rocket launches, as we share in the second graphic. That said, competition is increasing rapidly, especially from the well-funded Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’ rocket venture.

  • There is promise in its AI infrastructure business through the xAI merger, but Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and new open-source models like Kimi-K3 appear to hold a meaningful advantage.

The way to rationalize a near triple-digit P/S multiple is through extraordinary, historically unprecedented growth. So, let’s quantify “extraordinary.”

SpaceX’s Implied Growth Rate

Let’s work backward from SpaceX’s $1.84 trillion market cap to gauge the growth needed to satisfy the market’s implied forecast. To do so, we assume that investors demand a 20% annual return. While lofty, it is roughly a third below the 32% Amazon has delivered since its IPO.

If SpaceX shares compound at 20% per year for the next ten years, its market cap will reach $11.4 trillion by mid-2036, implying a share price near $860, assuming no new equity issuance.

With that proxy $11.4 trillion market cap in hand, the only remaining variable is the P/S multiple investors will pay for a mature SpaceX. That multiple determines the revenue it must produce. Consider two scenarios:

  • Scenario one: SpaceX matures like Amazon. Amazon today, after 29 years of dominance across e-commerce and cloud computing, trades at roughly 3.7 times trailing sales. If SpaceX has the same multiple in 2036, it will generate about $3.1 trillion in annual revenue. For context, that approximates the entire GDP of France and roughly a tenth of US GDP. The implied revenue growth rate that clears this hurdle is 67% per year, compounded over ten consecutive years.

  • Scenario two: SpaceX retains a higher premium multiple. A more generous P/S assumption eases the required revenue growth, but the implications are still daunting. At a P/S ratio of 20x in ten years, the required 2036 revenue falls to about $570 billion, roughly three-quarters of what Amazon generates today, and a level Amazon needed 27 years to attain. The implied growth rate is substantial at 41% per year for a decade.

To appreciate what a P/S of 20 means, we share the ratio of the 20 largest US stocks below. Broadcom at 29.2 and Nvidia at 24.9 are the only two above 20, and both are growing rapidly with enormous profits.

Amazon’s single best ten-year revenue stretch, from 1997 to 2007, produced a 59% compound annual growth rate. But Amazon started with $148 million in sales and was just beginning to expand beyond books. SpaceX began at $18.7 billion, 126 times Amazon’s starting point. Growth rates achievable from a small base are significantly easier than from a large one, which is precisely why only a handful of companies have ever sustained 40%+ growth for a full decade.

Time Out: What A P/S Of 20 Implies

It’s worth pausing to stress what a P/S ratio of 20 implies. The best way to do so is to share the advice Scott McNealy from Sun Microsystems gave his shareholders in 2002.  

‘At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?— Scott McNealy, Business Week, 2002

Elon Musk’s Growth Forecast

Elon Musk’s forward guidance warrants caution, as it is very aggressive. Days after the IPO, Musk posted the comment below on X.  Growing from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion in 2030 is a 53-fold increase in five years, a compound growth rate of roughly 122% per year, more than double Amazon’s best-ever pace and from a base thousands of times larger.

Suppose Musk delivers. The shareholder outcome still hinges entirely on the multiple. If the market awards a $1 trillion revenue base Amazon’s current 3.7x P/S valuation, SpaceX’s 2030 market cap would be roughly $3.7 trillion, about a 17% annualized return from today’s price. At 20x, the same revenue produces a $20 trillion valuation and returns near 70% annually.

A 17% to 70% range on identical fundamentals illustrates the difficulty in our analysis: both variables, sales and the multiple, are unknowable, and the multiple alone can swing the outcome from ordinary to absurd.

Wall Street’s Wide View

To be clear, SpaceX is unique. Starlink’s subscriber economics provide a sustainable revenue base; the launch business has pricing power that thus far has not been challenged, and an xAI integration could, in the most optimistic scenario, open multiple trillion-dollar markets quickly. That said, analysts must carefully discount even the most tremendous forecasts.

To wit, the models from the SpaceX IPO underwriters sit far below those of Elon Musk. Morgan Stanley projects roughly $330 billion in 2030 revenue, and Goldman Sachs sees about $470 billion, both fractions of Musk’s $1 trillion.

New Street Research, which initiated coverage with a $165 target, acknowledged the bullish thesis could work but noted investors need a “20 to 25-year time frame” for the math to resolve favorably.

Morningstar, by contrast, set the fair value for SpaceX at $63. As we share below, the $63 to $401 range of analyst price targets reflects the uncertainty surrounding the company’s potential.

Summary

Amazon rewarded patient investors immensely, but it did so from a mere $438 million IPO valuation. Compounding from $1.84 trillion, as SpaceX tries, is harder by orders of magnitude. SpaceX can be a great company and still prove disappointing to its shareholders. To justify today’s price, its growth must be historically unprecedented, at a scale no company has ever operated, for longer than any growth cycle has ever lasted.

While that may sound bearish, this analysis doesn’t make SpaceX uninvestable. The stock will cycle through bullish and bearish periods as momentum ebbs and flows along a likely volatile path. Accordingly, traders will find plenty of opportunities on both sides. For those looking to buy and hold, however, the odds seem lofty. But, transcending financial forecasting, Musk has a proven track record of success, so it’s too early to count SpaceX out.  

Can SpaceX do what only a very small handful of companies have ever done, or is the market once again pricing in a future that gravity will eventually catch up with?

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 12:25

Top Israeli Minister: 'Best For Us' If US Fights Iran While Israel Sits Out New Round of War

Top Israeli Minister: 'Best For Us' If US Fights Iran While Israel Sits Out New Round of War

As four more American families grieve the deaths of soldiers killed in the war on Iran, one of the top-ranking ministers in Israel's cabinet told an Israeli audience that having America do all the fighting and dying is "the best for us." Israel had intensely lobbied President Trump to launch a joint war on Iran on Feb 22, and traded blows with Iran up until early June. Since Trump restarted intense, daily bombardment of Iran 11 days ago, however, Israel has sat out the action, sparing Israelis from lethal Iranian retaliation. 

“The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States," far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said in a session at the Katif Conference for National Responsibility, which endorses Jewish settlement in Palestinian territories. "The current situation is the best one for us.”

Bezalel Smotrich leads the Religious Zionism party and wants Israel to annex the West Bank and Gaza (MENAHEM KAHANA / AFP)

Smotrich is generally regarded as the second-most powerful cabinet member in Israel, and is a vital linchpin in Netanyahu's government that took power in January 2023. Lacking an outright majority, Netanyahu was forced to build a ruling coalition that gives unprecedented power to religious and ultra-nationalist extremists. Smotrich leads the Religious Zionism party. He personally aspires to make Israel a theocracy, wants Israel to annex the West Bank and Gaza while barring most Palestinians from citizenship, and has said it would be "just and moral" to starve two million Palestinian men, women and children in Gaza. 

In his latest remarks, Smotrich candidly acknowledged that Israel and the United States have different goals vis a vis Iran, but said America's continued military engagement furthers the Israeli agenda. “[We] must remember that the ultimate goal of Israel, and not necessarily the United States, is to undermine and weaken the regime in Iran – to the point of overthrowing it,” Smotrich said.

Army SGT Michael Swinton was killed July 19 when a controlled detonation of an Iranian drone went terribly wrong (Mia Gonzalez-Swinton via Guardian)

Disregarding the widespread victimization of innocents that the strategy entails, Smotrich said destruction of Iran's economy will help precipitate the Iranian government's collapse. "Currently, inflation in Iran is at 85 percent, food inflation of over 134 percent in a total of four months, and the Iranian rial is trading at an exchange rate of 1.9 million to the dollar - and it's going up." He then reiterated that "the current situation is good for us, and there's no point in pushing ourselves inward." 

Here's how Israeli journalist Hagai Amit recently described the benefits of Israel allowing the United States to plunge forward alone in the war that Israel urged America to start: 

It reduces the risk of [Israeli] casualties and allows daily life to continue largely as normal, without midnight sirens, trips to bomb shelters or major disruptions. The Finance Ministry is also relieved not to have to burden the state budget with billions of additional shekels for air operations and the interception of ballistic missiles.

Meanwhile, as Amit warmly describes the cost savings for Israel, various analysts say America's cost of the Iran quagmire is now close to or even exceeding $100 billion, which is upwards of triple what the Pentagon has owned up to at this point.

1LT Tyler Feehan and PVT Isabella Gonzales were two of three Army soldiers killed in the Iranian strike on US forces at base in Jordan

Of course, the highest price is being paid by American service members who've been thrown into an unconstitutionally-initiated war launched on false premises. Four more US soldiers have been killed since Trump re-escalated the war. In addition to US Army SGT Michael Swinton being killed in Iraq when a controlled detonation of an Iranian drone went wrong, three more soldiers were killed in an Iranian strike that hit prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.

Initially, the Pentagon confirmed only two fatalities in Jordan: 19-year-old PVT Isabella Gonzales and 1LT Tyler Feehan. The third was classified as MIA, but the Pentagon is now saying SGT Angel Rampersad is "believed to be deceased."  The grim implication is that Rampersad's body was devastated by an Iranian missile -- nearly five months after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that Iran's military had been "made combat-ineffective," and almost two months after Sen. Ted Cruz said US forces had "destroy[ed] all of their missiles and drones." 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 12:05

ADNOC Approves $6.2 Billion Gas Project In Abu Dhabi

ADNOC Approves $6.2 Billion Gas Project In Abu Dhabi

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC just announced a $6.2 billion final investment decision to develop the Umm Shaif Gas Cap project in Abu Dhabi as part of its strategy to grow its global gas portfolio.

ADNOC will develop the project alongside its international partners - France’s TotalEnergies, Italy’s Eni, and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

The final investment decision (FID) includes three engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) packages totaling $5.1 billion for large-scale offshore infrastructure awarded by ADNOC to consortiums including major UAE and international contractors. The development also includes a $365 million 14-well drilling and integrated drilling services program to be delivered by ADNOC Drilling over 18 months using three existing rigs.

The green light for the development of Umm Shaif Gas Cap follows last month’s agreement in which ADNOC let BP and TotalEnergies take 10% each in the consortium developing one of Abu Dhabi’s largest gas fields—the Bab Gas Cap project in Abu Dhabi.

The Bab Cap Gas concession is expected to support UAE’s plan to become gas self-sufficient and domestic feedstock production, as well as ADNOC’s liquefied natural gas export expansion plans.

The new project, Umm Shaif Gas Cap, is the latest milestone in the company’s gas growth strategy and will unlock more than 600 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) of natural gas and associated gas liquids, equivalent to almost 10% of the UAE’s current daily gas consumption, ADNOC said today. Production from the development is expected by 2030.

“ADNOC is accelerating its integrated gas strategy to further harness the UAE's vast gas resources and expand our global LNG platform, as global demand for natural gas continues to rise,” said Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO.

Earlier this month, ADNOC Logistics and Services placed a $900-million order for four newbuild LNG carriers to expand its fleet as Abu Dhabi’s national oil company seeks to boost gas exports to seize the global rise in LNG demand.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 11:30

Socialist Mamdani Concedes NYC Can't Arrest Netanyahu, Breaking Another Campaign Promise

Socialist Mamdani Concedes NYC Can't Arrest Netanyahu, Breaking Another Campaign Promise

With New York City rents at record highs, bus fares still in place, and the rise of the far left spooking taxpayers and businesses, Mayor Zohran Mamdani appears increasingly focused on playing world policeman instead of properly addressing the city's affordability crisis. On Tuesday night, the socialist mayor was forced to concede that he cannot execute the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, exposing yet another campaign promise he cannot fulfill.

"It is clear that we do not have the independent legal authority to enforce this warrant," Mamdani said in a video posted on X. "The federal government, however, does, and I call on them to join the ICC and execute this warrant," he added.

Mamdani said his administration reviewed every available legal option but maintained that Netanyahu is "not welcome" in NYC. President Trump said Monday that Netanyahu would not be arrested anywhere in the U.S., while Israel's U.N. ambassador accused the socialist, pro-Islamist Mamdani of promoting Hamas propaganda.

During last year's campaign, Mamdani promised fellow socialists and Islamists that he would order city police to arrest Netanyahu under the ICC warrant. That pledge now adds to a growing list of unfulfilled promises, including lower rents, free buses, and other proposed handouts.

Related:

While those socialist programs may remain politically attractive in the short term, financing them will become increasingly difficult if the wealthy continue to flee the metro area for red states, eroding the city's tax base and raising the risk of financial turmoil.

In 2024, ICC issued arrest warrants accusing Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant of crimes against humanity during Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, allegations Israeli officials reject.

What the internet had to say:

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 11:10

Fifth Circuit To Rehear Drug Trafficker's Second Amendment Challenge

Fifth Circuit To Rehear Drug Trafficker's Second Amendment Challenge

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court voted to rehear a constitutional challenge to a federal law that prevents felons from possessing guns, weeks after Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas said he hoped a lower court would consider the law's constitutionality.

Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas poses for an official portrait at the East Conference Room of the Supreme Court building in Washington on Oct. 7, 2022. Alex Wong/Getty Images

The July 20 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit came after a three-judge panel of the same circuit on June 2 denied convicted drug trafficker Curtis Squire's challenge to Section 922(g)(1) of Title 18 of the U.S. Code. The felon-in-possession provision is part of the federal Gun Control Act of 1968.

Federal gun laws have largely been justified under the Constitution's commerce clause. The legal theory is that guns move in interstate commerce, meaning they are manufactured, sold, and transported across state lines. This means Congress can regulate gun possession, even inside the home, because it supposedly has an impact on the national market for firearms.

A majority of the judges sitting on the Fifth Circuit voted to grant the petition of Squire for a so-called en banc hearing before the full court. The panel had unanimously upheld Squire's conviction and sentence on June 2 for being a felon in possession of a firearm.

Squire had filed a so-called as-applied challenge to Section 922(g)(1), arguing the provision was unconstitutional as applied to him under the Second Amendment.

He cited the Supreme Court's landmark 2022 ruling in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen. That decision recognized a constitutional right to bear arms in public for self-defense and held that restrictions on guns must be deeply rooted in American history if they are to survive constitutional scrutiny.

Squire argued the Second Amendment allowed him to possess a firearm in his home, so the onus was on the government to prove there was a historical tradition justifying a lifetime ban on someone with his criminal past.

He also cited the high court's 2024 ruling in United States v. Rahimi, in which the justices upheld a federal gun control law that bars people under domestic violence-related restraining orders from possessing firearms.

The justices found in that case that the Second Amendment isn't violated when an individual is disarmed after a court has found him to pose a credible threat to the physical safety of another.

Squire argued that precedent stands for the principle that the disarmament must be related to a specific finding that a person is dangerous and that he was not because he was not convicted of using violence. His position was that Section 922(g)(1) was a categorical ban that did not mandate an ongoing assessment of dangerousness, so it was overbroad when applied to him.

The panel rejected these arguments, saying it affirmed the conviction and sentence "because our historical tradition supports disarming drug traffickers based on their dangerousness."

The Fifth Circuit did not provide an explanation for its new ruling that sets aside the panel's decision, but Circuit Judge Stephen Higginson noted in his dissent that mere weeks ago, Thomas "asked lower courts to reexamine the constitutionality of [the legal provision] under the Commerce Clause."

"Already, our court answers the call," Higginson said.

The judge was referring to Thomas's concurring opinion on June 18 in United States v. Hemani, a case in which the high court ruled unanimously that the government may not prosecute a man for owning a firearm just because he has habitually smoked marijuana. The ruling clarified a provision of the Gun Control Act.

Thomas agreed that the drug user ban as applied should be struck down but warned that Section 922(g) provisions - including the felon ban - may exceed Congress's authority under the commerce clause.

Thomas said Section 922(g)(3) of the Gun Control Act, which bars illegal drug users from possessing firearms, "appears to exceed Congress's enumerated powers to regulate interstate commerce."

"As an original matter, the Commerce Clause authorizes Congress only 'to regulate the buying and selling of goods and services trafficked across state lines,'" he said.

The clause does not give Congress power to regulate "activities wholly separated from business, such as gun possession," he said.

"Congress cannot regulate the possession of every thing that ever traveled across state lines," Thomas added.

It is unclear when the Fifth Circuit will conduct the rehearing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 10:50

Oil Soars To Six-Week Highs Amid Trump Threats, US Production Dip, & 'Tank Bottoms' At Cushing

Oil Soars To Six-Week Highs Amid Trump Threats, US Production Dip, & 'Tank Bottoms' At Cushing

Oil prices extended their rise this morning to six week highs as fighting between the US and Iran continued around the Persian Gulf (11th straight night of attacks) and threats of a blockade in the Red Sea added to growing uncertainty about the flow of energy from the region.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that U.S. forces would continue to attack Iran as long as it tried to exercise control over shipping traffic, which has dwindled in recent weeks.

Yesterday, President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth threatened to deepen the war effort, including by potentially targeting the Houthis.

Trump further threatened the Iranians this morning, saying on his social media network that if the country attacks any ship in the Strait of Hormuz, “the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.”

WTI is back at six-week highs, dragging bond yields higher and seemingly wearing on stocks too. Overnight saw API report an unexpected build in crude but an 'expected' draw in gasoline stocks.

API

  • Crude +2.6mm

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline -1.38mm

  • Distillates +1.76mm

DOE

  • Crude +2.01mm (-500k exp)

  • Cushing -674k

  • Gasoline +765k

  • Distillates +1.395mm

Crude stocks rose (in line with API's report) but Gasoline stocks rose (against API's reported draw)...

Stocks at the all-important Cushing hub fell again last week, unable to recover from 'tank bottoms'...

Interestingly, crude oil releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve re-accelerated last week...

Despite the ongoing rise in the rig count, US crude production dipped last week from record highs...

Next week’s EIA data may be more volatile depending on how hard Tropical Storm Bertha will impact the Gulf Coast. The storm could disrupt port operations and data on imports and exports. Bad weather could also make a dent on fuel demand on the East Coast. 

Crude imports from the Middle East remained at zero for a third week in the seven days to June 17. A couple of ships hauling Saudi crude to the US managed to leave the Persian Gulf during the brief opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But the waterway’s effective closure and the simultaneous threats to ships in the southern Red Sea will likely make further deliveries scarce.

WTI is holding around $88 at six-week highs...

The conflict is widening at a vulnerable time for energy markets.

Oil stockpiles are smaller than they were when U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began at the end of February, and Ukrainian attacks have severely damaged Russian refineries, tightening supplies of transportation fuels like diesel and prompting Goldman Sachs to raise a red flag about the potential for $120 Brent if things continue to escalate...

...and worse still, gas prices may go higher...

The $4 threshold is both economically and politically sensitive, as it is where lower-income consumers typically begin cutting discretionary purchases and trading down across gas stations, convenience stores and quick-service restaurants, further weighing on consumer sentiment... and Trump's approval ratings.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 10:40

The Money Printers Fueling Socialism's Rise

The Money Printers Fueling Socialism's Rise

Authored by David Stockman via the Brownstone Institute,

Here's a graph the Keynesians, statists, and Wall Street gamblers - yes, we repeat ourselves - would prefer not to explain. At the same time, it also explains why socialism at this late date in history - and after all its abysmal failures the world over - is having some kind of dubious second coming in America.

During the last three decades the national savings rate (red line) has essentially collapsed, having fallen from 6.3% of GDP in 1997 to 0.5% of GDP in 2025. Between the same two dates, however, the net worth of US households (blue line) has soared from 4.6X personal income to 6.5X personal income.

In economist jargon, the question would recur as follows: How in the world over a three-decade period did the stock of wealth soar when the flows of savings virtually evaporated?

Or in plain English, how did so many Americans get so damn rich while living high on the hog? And we do mean wealthy: According to the Fed's Flow of Funds data, household net worth erupted from $32 trillion in 1997 to $169 trillion at present. These figures amount to an average of $320,000 per household in 1997, which grew to an average of $1.250 million per household 28 years later.

Needless to say, some substantial part of that gain is reflective of inflation. But even in constant 2025 dollars, average net worth per household has virtually doubled from about $630,000 to the aforementioned $1.250 million.

In short, the average savings per household diminished to nearly zero over that three-decade period - even as $85 trillion in added wealth accumulated in household balance sheets.

Household Net Worth % Of Personal Income Versus Net National Savings Rate, 1997 to 2025

As it happened, of course, the massive $136.4 trillion increase in net worth over this period went to the holders of financial and housing assets, less associated debts. Accordingly, with a lot of debt at the bottom income rungs relative to modest asset levels, the resulting wealth distribution skewed sharply to the tippy-top of the economic ladder.

To wit, $44.1 trillion of the gain was accounted for by the top 1% of households and fully $94.2 trillion by the top 10%. And while Keynesians, statists, and stockbrokers would have you believe this was nothing more than Mr. Market at work, we beg to differ.

Under a regime of sound money and honest markets there would have been no soaring gains in net worth relative to the very modest gains in national income and savings. To the contrary, the former is the work of the money-printers at the central bank and the Cantillon Effect of monetary inflation.

That is to say, when the Fed prints money it effectively first deposits the receipts among the primary bond dealers, which sell government bonds to its open market desk and then send the proceeds ricocheting through the canyons of Wall Street. At length, the inflation gets to Main Street in the form of higher energy, food, and other everyday prices, but not before much of the inflation is absorbed by the leveraged gamblers on Wall Street.

So there is no mystery as to why the wealth distribution in America has been skewed sharply to the top of the ladder during recent years. The culprit was not the Reagan tax cuts back in the 1980s or the inherent inequality of capitalism.

To the contrary, the normal skew of wealth to the most productive, capable, persistent, and enterprising households has been badly thrown out of kilter by the capture of the Federal Reserve by Wall Street speculators.

In the interim, however, the chart below speaks for itself. By embracing Greenspan-style monetary central planning in lieu of gold standard sound money, the modern day GOP has paved the way for the emerging Mamdani socialist coup in the Democrat Party.

That is to say, the wealth disparities shown below did not exist with nearly this much skew as recently as 1987, when Alan Greenspan's pro-inflation, pro-wealth effects regime became official policy at the Fed. Then again, the Fed's balance sheet stood at $250 billion in Q2 1987 after 73 years of a moderately tame printing press, which footings then ballooned to nearly $9 trillion by the peak in Q1 2022.

Yes, flood the free market with $8.75 trillion of fiat credits in barely 25 years, and you will indeed get a rip-roaring financial asset inflation. And you will also get a rekindling of socialist economics, which should have been finally left for dead by 1984.

Let's start with the axiomatic. Redistribution of wealth from rich to poor is none of the state's business. Full stop. At the same time, however, it's an equally grave sin for agencies of the state to artificially tilt the scales on behalf of the already rich. Yet that is unmistakably the consequence of Keynesian monetary policy as it has been practiced and amplified since the arrival of Alan Greenspan at the Fed in August 1987.

In this context, there is no reason to believe that the wealthy were getting shortchanged on the net worth front after the Morning in America boom of the mid-1980s. Yet as is evident in the graph below, the gap between the very rich and the bottom 50% of households has been relentlessly expanding since Greenspan bailed out Wall Street gamblers the first time after Black Monday in October 1987.

The net worth of the top 0.1% of households back then stood at $1.757 trillion, which was 2.4X the $718 billion net worth of the bottom 50% of US households. In unit terms, that amounted to an average net worth of $15,460 among the bottom 50% of households, which compared to $18.892 million for the top 0.1% of households.

Call this the status quo ante and there was no reason to find it objectionable. Mr. Market at work, as it were.

Fast forward to 2025, however, and the wealth distribution is far, far more skewed. The net worth of the top 0.1% or 135,000 ultra-wealthy US households now stood at $25.072 trillion, which compared to aggregated net worth of $4.266 trillion among the 67.4 million households in the bottom 50%.

That is to say, the gap had widened from 2.4X in 1989 to 5.9X by 2025. And this widening was even more dramatic when expressed in per household terms, where net worth now stood at $185.7 million each among the top 0.1% of households compared to $63,300 for the bottom 50%.

The truth is, there is absolutely no reason to believe that under a regime of sound money and honest financial markets that the gap between the tippy-top and bottom half of American households would have doubled during that interval. Not even remotely for the reasons we amplify below.

To the contrary, what we have is the Cantillon Effect: The inflationary emissions from the Eccles Building stick to the walls earlier and more completely on Wall Street and among financial asset holders before they eventually wend their way into the incomes and spending levels of the Main Street population.

There is no mystery, however, as to how the central banking branch of the state managed to double the wealth gap between the ultra-rich and the bottom 50% of US households in barely 37 years. Keynesian central banking has just a single policy instrument and it inherently makes the asset rich richer.

It can be succinctly described as systematic falsification of the price of debt or what economists are pleased to call "financial repression." It is axiomatic, in fact, that when bond yields are artificially pushed lower, asset prices get jacked higher - even as leveraged speculation becomes even more rewarding as a matter of sheer arithmetic.

So what you have is a central bank-enabled double-whammy for the age-old carry trade: Through massive bond-buying, pegging of overnight money market rates, and open-mouth steering of price action on Wall Street, the Fed artificially boosts the asset side of the ledger - even as the carry cost of highly leveraged ownership of these appreciating assets falls increasingly below risk-based free market rates.

That is to say, the reason the net worth of the top 0.1% rose by 14.3X - from $1.757 trillion to $25.072 trillion - over a 36-year period in which the national income (GDP) rose by only 5.6X is this: Owing to a lot of help from their friends in the Eccles Building wealthy asset holders have been shooting fish in a barrel for the better part of three decades.

This has manifested itself, of course, in the relentless rise of PE multiples since the 1970s. Indeed, the S&P 500 traded at about 11X trailing GAAP earnings in the late 1970s, which multiple has climbed steadily on a rolling three-year trend basis to nearly 30X at present (dotted red least squares trend).

Then again, the logical direction of the trend line above would be the opposite - from the upper left to the lower right. That's because the underlying performance trend of the US economy has sharply deteriorated over the past four decades.

Thus, the trend of the three-year rolling average of real GDP has been moving decisively counter to the upward trend of valuation multiples. From a trend rate of 3.5% per annum in the late 1970s the real GDP growth trend has marched downhill for 40 years, currently posting at barely 2.0% per annum.

To be sure, in shorter intervals the profits share of GDP can fluctuate and potentially trend higher. But over time the real economy has to expand in order for business activity and the profit offtake from it to rise, as well.

Alas, the valuation multiple trend above is just plain not compatible in economic terms with the steadily falling rate of US economic performance depicted below. Somebody had their big fat thumbs on the scale, and that was the debt-enabling money-printers at the nation's central bank.

Yes, it is that simple. Like the case of the Wizard of Oz, the only thing behind the screens at the Eccles Building is the stimulation of debt, more debt, and still even more debt. And the reason remains the tattered Great Depression-era fallacy that times were hard because consumers and businesses suddenly lost their nerve and their minds, apparently, and refused to spend enough on consumer goods and capital goods to keep the macr0 economy on an expansionary path.

So economic policy-makers ever since, and one way or another through a variety of fiscal and monetary "stimulus" expedients, have sought to goose spending by fostering cheaper and more abundant debt than the free market would generate on its own steam.

This cardinal (Keynesian) error of modern economic policy has had a Brobdingnagian impact on financial markets and the Main Street economy alike.

That's because the other key line on the graph also has been chugging relentlessly uphill - most especially after Nixon shit-canned sound gold-backed money at Camp David in August 1971. We are referring to the trend of the national leverage ratio, which is depicted by the least squares line (dotted red line) in the graph below. It could not be more dispositive.

From a historic ratio of below 1.5X national income in 1955, total public and private debt outstanding now sits at an aberrant and unprecedented 3.5X national income.

Those two turns of extra debt tell you everything you need to know about today's massive central bank-fostered financial bubbles. At the historically stable and prosperity-compatible 1.5X ratio to national income, combined public and private debt outstanding today would total just $48 trillion.

As it happens, of course, that figure was actually $116 trillion at the end of Q1 2026. What we have, therefore, is an extra $70 trillion of debt freighting down the US economy at a level never before even imagined. In turn, this comprises the flood of mispriced debt that sent Wall Street into a relentless frenzy of leveraged speculation.

From endless basis trades to triple-leveraged ETFs and every manner of inherently leveraged options trading schemes, Wall Street has driven financial asset prices ever higher. But these pyramids of speculation and debt are not based on sustainable value-added and real economic output - they are the fetid fruit of the central bank printing presses.

Here's the skunk on the woodpile, however. None of the massive buildup of leverage and $70 trillion of extra debt depicted above was necessary for prosperity. It made the wealthy unspeakably rich - perhaps symbolized by trillionaire Elon Musk - but it was built on the so-called "Greenspan wealth effect" doctrine, surely the greatest economic policy error of modern times.

And now it threatens the very basis of American democracy, as well. That's because it is generating such egregious wealth disparities as to actually revive what had been the dead-as-a-doornail carcass of socialism at the turn of the century.

Using the 1955 Golden Era's ratio of total public and private debt to national income (GDP) at 1.4X, here is the buildup of the current $70 trillion of excess debt now hanging like a financial sword of Damocles over the financial markets and US economy.

Indeed, this data makes clear that the main thing being cooked up behind the screen by the monetary wizards at the Eccles Building - especially since Greenspan's arrival - was the false elixir of debt, more debt, and still even more debt. After all, during the 70 years after 1955 total US public and private debt outstanding rose by a staggering 190X, from $600 billion to $113.6 trillion.

And, yes, there was a fair amount of economic growth and an even more fulsome inflation of the price level during that seven-decade interval. But, still, the debt growth far outpaced both of these macr0 drivers, thereby causing the national leverage ratio - or ratio of total public and private debt to nominal GDP - to rise from 141% in 1955 to 370% at present.

In a word, the legacy of activist central banking since the mid-1960s has been the saddling of American free enterprise with what amounts to a rolling and perpetual national LBO. And like in all leveraged buyouts, it is the existing shareholders who get the loot, not the workers, businessmen, and consumers who subsequently labor under its crushing burden of debt.

Moreover, unlike standard LBOs where sponsors claim - and sometimes do - enhance returns by steady debt paydowns, the Fed's national LBO has worked in only one direction: Namely, toward ever higher national leverage ratios and a progressively greater burden of excess debt, which we are here defining as leverage above the 140% of GDP historic standard.

The blue area of the graph below depicts the growing margin of debt in excess of the 140% of GDP standard as it stood in 1955. It makes clear as a bell that we are not talking about an oscillating cyclical trend, but a long-term path driven by the central bank printing presses that have generated a growing, debilitating wedge of debt on the US economy.

In fact, when your editor first arrived in Washington, DC as a youthful Capitol Hill staffer on the eve of Nixon's folly at Camp David in August 1971, the excess debt wedge stood at a modest $163 billion and 15% of GDP. But by the time Greenspan took the helm at the Fed in 1987, the newly liberated proprietors of its printing presses had already expanded the excess debt wedge to $4.416 trillion and 95% of GDP.

Thereafter, of course, it was off to the races. Even before Greenspan went full retard after the dotcom crash, excess debt already stood at $16.2 trillion and 158% of GDP, but in successive turns at bat his successors and assigns - Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell - operated the printing presses on turbocharge for the next two decades, causing the excess debt wedge to balloon to nearly $49 trillion and 227% of GDP by 2019.

Despite Powell's belated efforts to shrink the Fed's elephantine balance sheet via a short spell of QT (quantitative tightening), there has been no respite from the excess debt tsunami. At the end of 2025, in fact, it stood at $113.7 trillion and has continued to grow by leaps and bounds and is likely to hit $120 trillion by year-end 2026.

Yet and yet. The proof that none of the chronic and systemic interest rate repression that fostered this debt explosion was necessary lies in the pudding of the historical economic performance statistics. Indeed, if we scroll back to the very low starting debt figures and national leverage numbers of 1955, what we find is that was one barnburner of a year economically. On a Y/Y basis, real GDP had boomed by 7.1%, while the CPI actually fell by 0.4% and real median family income surged by 6.6%.

In a word, 1955 was the epicenter of the Golden Era that Donald Trump only brags about today. The aforementioned $600 billion of total public and private debt, which represented 141% of GDP, stood right square upon the prior long-term average of about 150% after 1870.

Obviously, it took nothing like today's mountainous debt levels and the associated inflationary bloating of both financial asset prices and goods and services to generate the prosperity of 1955 - a time when the great President Dwight Eisenhower was also slashing real defense spending by 35%, seeking a rapprochement with the Soviet Union, and moving the Federal budget into balance for the first time since the 1920s.

None of these conditions were remotely akin to the spend/borrow/speculate and print modus operandi of present times. In fact, during the period between Q1 1952 and Q1 1966, constant dollar US output (as measured by real final sales of domestic product) rose by 4.0% per annum.

By contrast, during the years since Q4 2007, when the Fed went all-in on stimmies and money-printing, real final sales grew at just 1.96% per annum or by barely half the growth rate during the Golden Era of the 1950s and 1960s. Over a continuous 14-year period these growth rate differences make a huge cumulative difference.

As shown in the graph below, the US economy was actually 72% larger by Q1 1966 than it had been in Q1 1952. By contrast, under the growth rate which has prevailed since the Great Finance Crisis - and notwithstanding massive fiscal and monetary stimulus from Washington policy makers - it would have been only 30% larger.

We'd call that a smoking gun. The Fed and its shills on Wall Street and Washington alike always claim that a modest amount of inflation on Main Street and a goodly helping of asset inflation on Wall Street are the necessary price to obtain higher growth, job creation, and overall prosperity on Main Street.

It is not. Not in the slightest as we detail below.

In fact, there is no contest. The table below compares real growth, inflation, real median family income, and job growth for the two periods, and the sharp contrasts speak for themselves.

Finally, it needs be recalled that this 14-year Golden Era occurred immediately after the 1951 Treasury Accord, which ended WWII-style monetization of the public debt and the pegging of Treasury bond interest rates at artificially low levels. As a consequence, under the sound money leadership of William McChesney Martin, the Fed's printing press was virtually idle until 1966, when LBJ forced the Fed Chairman to monetize his ill-conceived "guns and butter" policies for war in Southeast Asia and the so-called Great Society at home.

Over the course of 1951 thru Q2 1966, however, the Fed's balance sheet had expanded by a micr0scopic 0.7% per year, and that's in nominal terms.

In inflation-adjusted dollars it actually shrank by nearly 11% and dropped from 15% of GDP to just 7%.

By the lights of today's Fed fanboys, of course, the American economy - left unattended and undernourished by the central bank printing presses as it was during this 14-year period - should have tumbled into severe economic disrepair and crisis.

It didn't. American businesses, workers, consumers, savers, investors, inventors, and speculators pursuing their own best interest on the free market - coupled with relatively sound money - caused the American economy to actually boom and glow with noninflationary prosperity.

In a word, it showed its true stuff. No government "stimulus" and lickety-split debt growth was needed then, and it's not needed now.

So the first step toward restoration of a True Golden Era is the opposite of the recipe of easy money, big deficits, high tariffs, and ceaseless Washington meddling in the process of investment, resource allocation, and growth on the free market.

Simply pass a law forbidding the Fed to own government debt or buy and sell any securities at all. In lieu of this mode of monetary central planning, instead, just restore passive Discount Window lending at a penalty spread above the free market rate of interest based on the presentation of sound commercial collateral by Member banks.

That's all it would take to promote sustainable prosperity. And the proof is in the Golden Era pudding.

Undertake these reforms else we will see the rage grow and the long knives of wealth slayers drawn and used in ways no one wants. An economy this top-heavy with paper wealth - as the poor and middle class get destroyed with persistent inflation, slow growth, and unstable labor markets pervasive with dropouts - is not sustainable. It's not capitalism but rather corruption by the printing press. History shows precisely where this leads, namely to some upheaval that is even worse for everyone.

Total Public And Private Debt, Nominal GDP And “Excess Debt”, 1955-2025 Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 10:05

UBS Warns Trump's 100% Generic Drug Tariff Puts Indian Pharma "On Notice"; Goldman Flags Reshoring Winners

UBS Warns Trump's 100% Generic Drug Tariff Puts Indian Pharma "On Notice"; Goldman Flags Reshoring Winners

President Trump will impose a 100% tariff on imported generic drugs starting in August 2028, rising to 200% a year later, unless manufacturers shift production to the US.

"This is done in order to RESHORE Generic Pharmaceutical Production into America, with a penalty to those Companies that decide not to build Plant and Equipment within the stated period of time given to them," Trump wrote on Truth Social late Tuesday.

He continued, "The objective of this Policy is to protect the people of the United States. The Policy on Patented, Branded, or Innovative Drugs, which has been so successful, will remain as is," adding, "Pharmaceutical Facilities are being built, at a level never seen before, all over the United States of America."

Trump's announcement is the latest effort to reshore critical supply chains, and in this case, boost domestic production of generic drugs. Trump has been pressuring drugmakers through his most-favored-nation drug pricing policy to lower prices to what people pay in ‌other high-income countries. At least 90% of medicines sold in the U.S. are generics.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati told clients earlier that Trump's move to reshore generic drug production puts Indian pharmaceutical companies "on notice."

Samajpati said:

President Donald Trump has threatened steep tariffs on generic-drug imports to push manufacturing back to the US, though his plan includes a two-year tariff-free window before levies rise to 100% from August 2028 and 200% from August 2029. India is highly exposed: its generic medicines account for nearly 40% of US generic-drug volume, used widely to treat hypertension, diabetes, cancer, and infectious diseases.

In FY2024-25, India's pharma exports to the US totalled $9.7bn, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative. Yet implementation is uncertain given prior unfulfilled tariff threats, a February bilateral trade pact that included negotiated outcomes for generics, and India's 30%-50% manufacturing-cost advantage. The risk of immediate disruption is limited as investors assess whether policy pressure can realistically shift low-cost supply chains back to the US, especially if execution stretches beyond Trump's term.

Goldman analyst Matt Dellatorre offered clients a way to profit from this announcement:

For our generics coverage, we view the group as relatively well-positioned given: AMRX (significant US infrastructure), TEVA (diversified manufacturing; branded portfolio), and VTRS (diversified manufacturing; limited US exposure).

The national security case for reshoring critical generic-drug supply chains stems directly from Covid-era disruptions of essential medicines, active pharmaceutical ingredients, protective equipment, and medical devices. Years of offshoring have left the US dangerously dependent on foreign production, such as that in India.

In the event of a future supply shock, particularly one triggered by conflict in the Pacific, Washington could be confronted with shortages far more severe than the Covid-era. Rebuilding domestic production would give the US greater resilience to absorb any future supply shock without jeopardizing access to critical medical supplies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 09:45

Chilling New Clues Challenge Suicide Claim In Los Alamos Lab Worker's Death

Chilling New Clues Challenge Suicide Claim In Los Alamos Lab Worker's Death

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Fresh evidence recovered from the remote New Mexico forest where Los Alamos National Laboratory administrative assistant Melissa Casias was found has blown major holes in the suicide narrative.

An independent team hired by her own family discovered bones, torn and bloody clothing, orange peels, strands of what appears to be horse hair, shredded paper that may contain her handwriting, and a tobacco pouch - none of which New Mexico State Police recovered after clearing the scene.

Casias, 53, vanished from her Ranchos de Taos home on June 26, 2025. She left without her purse, keys or wallet. Surveillance captured her walking alone eastward on State Road 518 around 2:20 p.m.

Both her work and personal phones were found at the house, factory-reset and wiped of all data. A blood drop was also discovered inside the residence. Nearly eleven months later, on May 28, 2026, a hiker located her skeletal remains in the McGaffey Ridge area of Carson National Forest next to a handgun her family says did not belong to her.

Initial CT scans showed no gunshot wound and no projectile in the skull. No casing was recovered at the scene. The remote location is difficult to reach on foot, requiring multiple rest stops and water.

Now, new details have raised further serious questions.

Family attorney David Adams of Parnall and Adams Law said an independent search conducted in late June - after police had already cleared the area - turned up the additional items. "The family really wasn't expecting to find any additional information... it certainly turned out to be something much, much more," Adams stated.

He noted the presence of possible horse hair and the rugged terrain: "In my mind, when you see that, you kind of go, okay, well, I could see that you would need a horse to get her up there if you were moving a body, for instance, because how you would otherwise do that."

Adams also questioned the tobacco pouch, pointing out Casias did not use tobacco, and raised chain-of-custody concerns: "There becomes a question of a chain of custody... Could law enforcement have spat a tobacco pouch in the crime scene? I mean, certainly possible. I mean, that would be an example of just poor training."

The family has rejected claims that Casias intended to disappear or end her life. Earlier reporting revealed she left home with her toothbrush and thyroid medication - items one investigator described as "things that might indicate you're planning to stay alive."

Adams said the family hired his firm after spotting multiple red flags. The new evidence has been turned over to authorities.

The official cause of death remains pending from the Office of the Medical Investigator nearly two months after the remains were identified. The FBI, ordered to examine possible links to other cases, has had no contact with the family according to Adams.

Former FBI agent Ben Hansen assessed the Casias case as roughly "80 percent foul play" and floated the possibility of directed-energy weapons or voice-to-skull technology that could influence behavior without leaving conventional ballistics.

Casias is one of several New Mexico individuals connected to nuclear facilities who disappeared under similar circumstances.

Her case sits inside a larger cluster that first drew national attention when retired Air Force Maj. Gen. William Neil McCasland - widely described as a UFO "gatekeeper" with oversight of top-secret space weapons and advanced aerospace programs - vanished from his Albuquerque home on February 27, 2026, just days after President Trump ordered full disclosure of all UFO and UAP records.

Subsequent cases included a NASA nuclear propulsion expert found charred inside a crashed Tesla.

A NASA-linked aerospace engineer and his family killed in a plane crash.

The death of anti-gravity researcher Amy Eskridge (who had reported directed-energy harassment).

The disappearance of JPL rocket scientist Monica Reza.

And additional personnel tied to nuclear components, rocket alloys and classified aerospace work, including the vanishing of Steven Garcia, a nuclear contractor with top clearance.

By mid-April 2026 the documented total had reached at least eleven. Former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker previously noted that administrative staff in high-clearance labs "would basically be in the know on what's going on" and that it "wouldn't be the first time their administrative assistant has been targeted."

Two major sets of previously classified UFO/UAP disclosure files have since been released under the Trump administration. President Trump has publicly addressed the string of cases, stating there is "not much of a connection" and describing many as individual matters while pledging a full report.

The latest reporting on the missed evidence at the Casias scene only deepens the questions surrounding both her death and the wider pattern. Officials continue to treat each incident in isolation. Families and independent investigators keep finding anomalies that do not fit the tidy explanations being offered.

America's nuclear and advanced-technology workforce is not disposable. When personnel with access to the most sensitive programs keep vanishing or turning up dead under irregular circumstances - especially amid long-overdue transparency on related technologies - the public has every right to demand answers that match the seriousness of the losses.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 08:45

Trump Greenlights Saudi Nuclear Deal, Uranium Enrichment In The Kingdom Possible

Trump Greenlights Saudi Nuclear Deal, Uranium Enrichment In The Kingdom Possible

President Trump has formally approved a landmark 30-year civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that could be worth tens of billions of dollars and put American companies at the center of the kingdom's nuclear buildout, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The accord is expected to be signed Wednesday by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, then head to Congress for a 90-day review. Lawmakers could block it through a joint resolution, but overriding a Trump veto would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers.

There is plenty to like here. A Section 123 agreement creates a legal framework for peaceful use, safeguards, and nonproliferation. American involvement also gives Washington more influence over Riyadh's program than it would have if Saudi Arabia turned to China or Russia.

The agreement is the latest step in a rapidly deepening relationship. The administration previously delinked Saudi nuclear talks from normalization with Israel, while Trump later designated the kingdom a major non-NATO ally after Mohammed bin Salman's return to the White House.

Yet one provision is difficult to support: “A key provision of the new accord would have American companies build an uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint U.S.-Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted.”

The 123 accord is not a turnkey export license, and any technology transfer would still require separate federal approval, but the policy direction is clear.

The strongest argument for this arrangement is that US technology and oversight would keep Washington inside the tent and make diversion harder. That is a legitimate advantage, but it doesn’t eliminate the underlying risk.

Uranium enrichment is inherently dual-use. Centrifuges producing reactor fuel enriched to 3 to 5% can be reconfigured toward weapons-grade material above 90%. Safeguards can monitor declared activity, but technology, infrastructure, and trained personnel endure long after a government or regional balance changes. 

Mohammed bin Salman has also said Saudi Arabia would pursue a bomb if Iran obtained one. The UAE, another close Gulf partner, accepted the so-called gold standard by renouncing enrichment and reprocessing.

The better model is simple: export the product, not the technology.

As we recently argued, Washington should overbuild uranium conversion and enrichment capacity inside the United States, then supply allies with safeguarded fuel under long-term contracts. Saudi Arabia would receive reliable reactor fuel, American workers would capture the investment, US suppliers would gain durable export revenue, and sensitive technology would remain under US jurisdiction.

No contractors have been announced. Centrus looks like the leading technology candidate given its operating US-origin centrifuge cascade and deep Department of Energy ties, with General Matter the emerging alternative. 

Bechtel has the Saudi and nuclear pedigree to participate, but Centrus' existing EPC partnership with Fluor gives Fluor the stronger documented construction claim.

The agreement is strategically sound if it anchors Riyadh to American reactors, fuel, standards, and safeguards. But building Saudi enrichment capability trades away too much leverage in pursuit of that goal. Washington should sell the kingdom decades of American-made fuel, not the machinery that can ultimately make far more than fuel.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 06:55

The UK Censors The Net 'For The Children'

The UK Censors The Net 'For The Children'

Authored by Ted Newson via AmericanThinker.com,

Outgoing British prime ministers have a tendency to rapidly expand the remit of the state in their final days.

Theresa May tied a Net Zero target into law, Rishi Sunak implemented a generational smoking ban.

Keir Starmer is no exception.

The British state has now outlawed social media usage for those under sixteen.

On June 15, Starmer stood at Downing Street to announce that Britain would ban under-16s from social media, after intense pressure from campaigners. Possibly his last meaningful political action before resigning on June 22. Additionally, the now-departed PM has left the door open to curfews for 16 and 17-year-olds. The country that gave the world the liberal philosophy America's Founders drew on is now imposing digital ID and information bans.

The justification is public safety. A framing that has a habit of expanding well beyond its original scope. Banning under-16s from social media is framed as "giving children back their childhoods"; in reality, it has a much darker undertone.

Not all social media is created equal. Depending on how they’re put to use, these platforms can serve as invaluable educational resources. Excessive social media use, as a substitute for going outside, is the real issue that studies show.

As state education systems become increasingly politicized, social media can give curious minds access to alternative perspectives that will help them make sense of the world for themselves. While recently social media algorithms have pushed people into more radical politics, the solution is to change the algorithm, not the user.

My teen years were shaped by non-mainstream thinkers from across the political spectrum. At that time, the UK had a centrist government and a narrow Overton window. In the classroom, there were ‘politically correct’ and ‘politically incorrect’ opinions. To explore views the British commentariat either ignored or scorned, I looked to YouTube. The Oxford and Cambridge debates I found there at fifteen took every viewpoint as worthy of criticism, debate, and rebuttal.

As someone who now works in politics, having the ability to watch ‘adult’ debates from a young age expanded my mind and helped me in learning some key skills for the future. This kind of intellectual curiosity is exactly what under-16s should be showing. A blanket ban on usage will only stunt the growth of the next generation.

The philosopher John Stuart Mill argued that the state may only restrict liberty to prevent harm to others, not to protect people from themselves. A teenager on Instagram harms no one but possibly themselves. That, by the oldest principle in liberal democracy, is their business and their parents', not Starmer's.

An aggressive form of state parenting would at least be understandable (though still unfair) if applied across every facet of young people’s lives. At sixteen you can join the army, have a child, and under Labour's own proposals, vote; but apparently you cannot be trusted with Instagram.

The ban doesn’t make sense for teens, but they’re not the only ones who will be affected. Enforcing the ban will require a system for online age verification. Think digital ID checks for the entire population. The House of Lords has even voted to force VPN providers to implement digital ID to close the workaround.

What could possibly go wrong? Data breaches leading to all manner of harm, that’s what.

This level of paternalism isn’t just in British politics. Despite the various flaws exposed by an Australian social media ban, Spain, Greece, and Slovenia are working on bans of their own. France is also expected to implement an under-15s ban. America must resist the pressure of the bipartisan “child safety” coalition in Congress and resist any expansion of KOSA (Kids Online Safety Act). Not only does age-gating the internet push children onto unmoderated dark-web-adjacent sites, it opens up the rest of the population to providing vast amounts of their personal data to social media companies to appease the government.

What Starmer called putting "power back in parents' hands" actually means handing your passport details to a social media company and handing permanent regulatory power to the Secretary of State; with no sunset clause, no parliamentary override, and no expiry date. It is no longer the case that parents get to decide their own social media policy for their children, the government must go above parents in deciding what is best for children. Ultimately, this leads to people having less individual agency when deciding things. The state, apparently, knows better.

Parents should be allowed to decide what their children see. If they want to use YouTube as an educational tool for their kids, they should be allowed to do so at any age. As things stand, a child aged fifteen would be able to watch Baby Shark videos on YouTube Kids, but be barred from accessing a college lecture.

America was built on freedom and individual rights. It is for that reason, it is one of the most prosperous countries in the world. U.S. lawmakers should resist the urge to follow the rest of the world into overregulation, paternalism, and mass surveillance. Britain is discovering what happens when the state appoints itself the parent of a nation. America was founded precisely to prevent that.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 02:00

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