Louisiana AG Announces Investigation Into Fauci

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Officials in three states are investigating or plan to investigate Dr. Anthony Fauci following the release of his diary and his refusal to answer questions during a Senate hearing.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, testifies before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs in Washington on July 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

"Fauci lied," Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill wrote on X on Aug. 1. "Louisiana and Missouri deposed Dr. Fauci. At the time, he claimed to not recall many key details of his own actions and now we are discovering contemporaneous records he kept."

Murrill said the investigation would look at whether Fauci committed any crimes for which state prosecutors could charge him.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who is running to be Alabama's next governor, said during a recent appearance on Newsmax that his state would be probing Fauci.

"Hopefully in the next six months, I'll be the governor of the state of Alabama," Tuberville said. "And I promise you one thing, we will find out if there's a possibility that we can bring him to Alabama, to put him in front of a court and a jury, to see if we can put this guy in prison."

Florida's attorney general said on July 29, also after Fauci's appearance before the Senate, that his office was opening an investigation into Fauci.

"It's past time we get the truth of what happened during COVID," Attorney General James Uthmeier said in a post on X.

He wrote in another post, "If he lied, and it resulted in physical and economic harm to countless Americans, billions of taxpayer dollars in 'medical expenses,' and learning-loss for our next generation, there should be accountability."

Fauci and his lawyer did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Fauci, 85, was director of the National Institutes of Health's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 to 2022. He was also the chief medical adviser to the president during the Biden administration.

Fauci received a preemptive pardon from President Joe Biden in early 2025. That covers any federal crimes Fauci may have committed from Jan. 1, 2014, through Jan. 19, 2025.

Attorneys general from 17 states, including Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana, later in 2025 said they were conducting a joint investigation into Fauci for allegedly making misleading statements and suppressing scientific debate.

"The American people also have a right to transparency and accountability from the public officials whose decisions affected millions of lives. We will continue pursuing the truth because the American people deserve nothing less," South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson, leader of the coalition, said in a July 29 post on X.

Ohio legal analyst Mike Allen, a current defense lawyer and former prosecutor, told The Epoch Times in an email that the statute of limitations for many offenses prosecutors may target Fauci over has likely expired.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 17:40

ID To Buy Gov't Bread & Milk, But Not To Vote: This Is Mamdani's Socialist NYC Utopia

So far, in Zohran Mamdani's socialist utopia in New York City, it can take multiple forms of identification to shovel snow and, if his proposal is implemented, potentially to shop at government-run grocery stores.

Yet New Yorkers still do not have to present voter identification during elections, and the hypocrisy is just off the charts, as this only highlights an inconsistency in the state's approach to identification requirements:

• ID Required: Shovel snow
• ID Required: Buy milk and bread at a gov't-run grocery store
• No ID Required: Voting in elections 

"We are looking to make sure that we target New Yorkers … sort of a library card-esque thing," one of Mamdani's socialist officials said.

Mamdani wants to protect tax payer funded grocery store from non-NYC residents… they’ll need an ID card to enter.

You can make this up. pic.twitter.com/lXs2SKdjBt

— Nick Plumb (@PlumbNick) August 2, 2026

Elon Musk, who has repeatedly backed the SAVE Act, a federal election proposal that would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register for federal elections, weighed in on NYC's proposed identification requirements for government-run grocery stores with a pointed response: "Oh, the irony is too much …"

Oh, the irony is too much … pic.twitter.com/k0NgRxMoLT

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 3, 2026

"THIS IS JIM CROW 2.0! How dare Mamdani expect black people to have IDs? Am I doing this right or are IDs only racist when you have to show them to be able to vote in elections?" conservative activist Robby Starbuck wrote on X.

The problem with Democrats, socialists, and the far left, who are weaponizing their imported illegal alien army to vote in elections in places where no ID is required, is that the narrative that requiring ID is "racist" no longer works. There is a growing push for election security as socialists seek to exploit the system to seize as much power as possible at the local level and, in their own words, begin the collapse of the nation. Socialists are not after affordability. DSA flat-out says what they want: "The most important thing we can do is take that (American) empire down from within."

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 17:20

Study Finds Daily Marijuana Use Surpasses Daily Alcohol Consumption Among US Adults

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Daily or near-daily marijuana use has surpassed daily alcohol consumption in the United States, reaching 20.9 million to 21.4 million daily users compared to roughly 17.2 million daily or frequent alcohol drinkers.

Fox News reports that new data from the 2025 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), reveals that daily marijuana users outnumber the the 19.9 million people who smoke cigarettes and the 17.2 million who consume alcohol.

While tobacco and alcohol use has been plummeting, down 28 percent and 24 percent since 2021, daily pot use — including smoking and edibles — surged 21 percent.

Marijuana has officially surpassed both alcohol and cigarettes as the most-used daily substance among U.S. adults.

21.4 million use marijuana daily or almost daily, compared to 19.9 million daily cigarette users and 17.2 million daily alcohol users.https://t.co/yE6yjKgqgC pic.twitter.com/4d01T0rFQK

— Theo Holmes (@theo_69_holmes) August 3, 2026

According to SAMSHA, the biggest jump occurred between 2021 and 2022 with an increase of roughly 2.8 million users.

Between 2021 and 2025, the number of adults 18 and older using marijuana daily or almost daily increased about 22%, from 17.2 million to 20.9 million.

A Modern Health survey of 1,000 full-time employees in April 2026 found that 63% of the workforce engages in at least one form of self-medication after the workday, while 52 percent have self-medicated during the workday.

According to Fox News, Gen Z is the only generation of workers where THC use exceeded alcohol use after work – 59 percent report using marijuana products compared to 50 percent who drink alcohol.

Among 18-to 25-year-olds, roughly 10-12 percent reported daily or near-daily marijuana use, while only 3-5 percent drank and 9.6 percent smoked cigarettes daily or near-daily.

The study found daily cannabis use has accelerated rapidly among adults aged 26 and over with millions of Americans in their 30s, 40s, and 50s  now using cannabis daily or near-daily.

General past-month cannabis use rose to 15.1 percent, driven by state-level legalization, while frequent drinking and cigarette smoking continue to decline, according to Yahoo.

Fox News senior medical analyst Dr. Marc Siegel said the SAMHSA data shows a “very disturbing trend” and told Fox News Digital: “Too little attention has been paid to the growing THC content in all cannabis products, which makes it far more dangerous in terms of mental performance, judgement, memory and all forms of impairment.”

Seigel added, “So I firmly believe that the rising use – coupled with decreasing alcohol and cigarettes – is directly due to lack of awareness of all the dangers of marijuana versus an increased awareness of all the dangers of cigarettes and alcohol.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 17:00

Zelensky: We Seek To End War By Winter Through Escalation On Military, Diplomatic Fronts

Ukraine is openly advancing plans to escalate militarily against Russia, in hopes that it will force a return to diplomacy, and hasten an end to the war by winter time.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has made clear he aims to ramp up diplomatic, economic, and military pressure on Moscow, while acknowledging that a short timeline is ideal but likely very difficult to achieve. 

via Reuters

Speaking Monday at a gathering of Ukrainian ambassadors in the capital, Zelensky identified autumn 2026 as the target window. "We will try very hard to make this happen before winter, in the autumn," he said, according to Ukrainian national media.

But he quickly tempered expectations, adding: "We clearly understand who we are dealing with and that Putin hopes to continue dragging out this war."

According to Zelensky, the Kremlin is preparing for a prolonged conflict. "He is preparing mobilization at home and new strikes. We see Russia's true intentions, we are uniting our partners and putting pressure on the aggressor," he said in reference to Putin.

He said this campaign is to include continued reliance on allied military and economic measures, until Moscow has no realistic alternative but to negotiate.

Zelensky pointed to what his government calls "long-range sanctions" - Ukraine's term for strikes on Russian military and industrial infrastructure supporting the war, alongside conventional sanctions imposed by Western governments.

The objective, he said, is to bring all of these tools to "such a level of pressure that Russia is left with no alternative other than peace."

Lately attacks have expanded to include targeting online Russian retailer giant, Wildberries...

The attacked Wildberries warehouse near Vladimir is burning over an area of 100,000 square meters.

Forbes analysts estimated the losses of Russian businessmen from Ukrainian strikes on logistics warehouses at €2.3–3 billion. pic.twitter.com/QyJQQ6rIth

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 3, 2026

On Monday yet another large Wildberries warehouse went up in flames, this time in Vladimir region, marking the third attack in a mere two weeks on the e-commerce company's logistics network. There's been over a dozen similar attacks so far over the last month.

Zelensky has alleged these warehouses are involved in providing Russian forces with drone components, navigation equipment and other military supplies listed on its website. There have also been reports of underequipped Russian soldiers ordering straight from Wildberries to make up for front line deficiencies. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 16:40

Everybody Knows

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“I underestimated how emotionally committed much of the press is to rallying around Anthony Fauci. His reputation is more important to them than anything. . .”

- Matt Taibbi

The baleful afterburn of Dr. Fauci’s one-sentence testimony (“On the advice of counsel, I respectfully decline to answer. . . .”) seeps over the land like some ghastly pestilence now. You couldn’t have seen a more vivid demonstration of manifest evil than the master bureaucratic grifter formerly self-styled as “The Science” stonewall his way through that fateful reckoning in Sen. Rand Paul’s committee hearing last Wednesday.

The score so far: over a million dead in America from the Covid-19 virus that Dr. Fauci helped develop starting as far back as the 1990s, with Dr. Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina. Tens of thousands left with serious, lasting injuries from the vaccines they promoted. The exact number of vaccine-connected deaths unknown because the public health agencies refused to report honestly on an operation that they caused to happen. There are whole legions of high officials and doctors behind Dr. Fauci now desperate to cover their asses.

Along with the mendacious news media. HHS Sec’y Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. happened to be on Dana Bash’s CNN Sunday morning program. By the way, Dana Bash used to be married to one Jeremy Bash, Chief-of-Staff to CIA-Director Leon Panetta under Barack Obama. CNN lied consistently to the American people during the years of the Covid emergency. You have to wonder if CNN takes direction from the CIA, or maybe rogue elements in (or retired from) the agency. Sunday, Dana Bash went on offense against RFK,Jr.

Didn’t work. RFK, Jr. kept his cool. The harshest thing he said to Bash through all her hectoring was “you were part of the problem,” a startling understatement. Ms. Bash otherwise only wrecked herself, over-speaking her guest at every opportunity, pettifogging, and filibustering. Everybody could see what she was up to. Imagine how desperate CNN was to think that Dana Bash could bluster her way over Mr. Kennedy. He helped her expose herself as a tool.

The news media has been a very active co-conspirator in the Covid operation. You’d think Senator Paul might want to subpoena some network executives from CNN, CBS, NBC, MSNOW (especially), plus Executive Editor Joe Kahn of The New York Times (and his predecessor during Covid, Dean Baquet) to find out why they reported so much pure falsehood around the so-called pandemic. How did they happen to become the propaganda department for the Democratic Party, and what was the party’s interest in the Covid operation? D’unh. . . .

Everybody knows. Even the super-hyped-up cat ladies, nose-rings, NPR stars, and moiling transsters of the lefty-left know. They have kin and friends who either died on respirators with IV lines of remdesivir in their arms, or were gifted by the vaxx shots with turbo-cancer or myocarditis or neuromuscular disease or immune system failure or some mystery illness. They have been harmed even more than those of us who declined to get vaxxed. Sooner or later, that’s got to mean something.

As for Dr. Fauci’s motive in this huge fiasco. . . it’s got to be clear both from the record of his career — nicely reported in RFK,Jr’s 2021 book The Real Doctor Fauci — and from the 1000-plus-page personal diary he recorded on the HHS computers, that Fauci was doggedly in pursuit of glory. Glory! And that his personal holy grail was to find a “universal vaccine” that could defeat any virus, so as to be acclaimed by all mankind! Glory! Glory! Glory! Given what is understood now about viruses and their interaction with vaccines — for instance, the flu vaccine which uniformly fails to adapt to annual virus mutations — that Dr. Fauci’s quest was quixotic, very basically foolish. All he ever produced, from the AZT wonder-drug for AIDS he developed back in 1986 (that probably killed as many people as died from the disease itself) to the Pfizer / Moderna mRNA shots for Covid in 2021 . . . all that frantic, questing “science” just ended up killing and harming the credulous in large numbers. The buttoned-up little fellow appears to be guilty of mass-murder on an epic scale.

Of course, he is presumed to be protected by the autopen-signed peremptory pardon he received from minions of “Joe Biden.” Perhaps Dr. Fauci’s invoking the Fifth Amendment under those circumstances will prompt an overdue look at just how this autopen thing really worked. In any case, Dr. Fauci is liable to be voted in contempt of Congress this week for not answering any questions put to him. The connected legal procedure will keep Dr. Fauci’s misdeeds under public scrutiny for at least months to come.

It’s also a fact that the autopen pardon does not shield him from charges brought in state courts. The AGs of Florida, Louisiana, Alabama have declared investigations. Louisiana and Missouri have already made Dr. Fauci sit for depositions, and now they can compare his answers with the entries from his diary. It is obvious that on countless occasions and on many vital issues, Dr. Fauci told the public one thing while he believed (and recorded) the opposite in his diary.

One question that the public badly wants Secretary RFK,jr. to answer: how come you haven’t pulled the mRNA Covid vaccines altogether?

They don’t work and they harm people.

Why are they even still available? Would such a move amount to an admission that the whole emergency was a fake and a failure? And that the government’s own public health agencies are culpable? Would the survivors of the 268-million Americans who got the shots be a little pissed-off? What, then?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 16:20

'Cycles Line Up Like They Did Before 1929': Charles Nenner Warns Of "Very Big Downturn" In Stocks'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner is usually way ahead of market moves.  When nobody wanted silver ($29), he was buying it.  When everyone wanted silver a few months ago ($120), he was selling it. 

So, what is Nenner seeing in the markets right now?  Let’s start with the big surprise prediction coming in oil prices.  Lots of people say oil is going higher, a lot higher.  There are plenty of predictions of oil breaking over $200 a barrel.  Heck, even President Trump thinks oil will hit $200, but Nenner says he’d be wrong.  Nenner explains:

“The crazy thing is, based on all my analysis, is crude oil looks weak for the next year.  I am not sure what it means. . .. I see oil going down longer term. 

Maybe other countries are going to find oil because they cannot rely on oil (from the straight of Hormuz) anymore.  By the way, Saudi Arabia has plans to make a pipeline through Israel to bring it to the sea.  So, they won’t need the Strait of Hormuz anymore. 

Intelligence will find a solution.  I think they are going to pump more oil.  If people think they will flood the world with oil from other countries, then the price will come down. . .. there may be an outside chance of oil hitting $101 (per barrel).”

On gold, Nenner predicts, “Some cycles are very interesting.  The gold cycle came down at $5,300 (per ounce).  We have a 30-day free subscription, and you can see those cycles.  They are close to bottoming now."

" Soon, there should be a new up move for gold.  We had a (downside) price target of around $3,800 per ounce.  We are very close.  So, gold starts looking good into 2027.” 

Nenner says the next gold bull market starts next month in August.

On silver, Nenner says:

 “Silver was a catastrophe because we had the cycle top at $121 (per ounce), and we couldn’t get people out of it. . ..

Silver is also going to be in a new bull market.   It could go back to the old highs of $120.”

On the stock market, Nenner says:

“The cycles in 1926 and 1927 line up like they did before the crash of 1929. 

This is almost August, and big investors have time to be very defensive. 

I want to repeat my forecast of a very big downturn in the stock market.”

Nenner likes cash, and he says watch out for big losses coming from some big banks. 

Nenner says:

“Real estate is a bad investment. 

I know big pension funds, and they have real estate in New York, and they are selling with a loss.  Other banks have losses, and nobody speaks about it—yet...

So, there is a lot going on that the average person doesn’t know. 

I know it because I work with these people, and things don’t look very safe...

I think we could have a banking crisis.”

There is much more in the 40-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 7.31.26.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 15:40

Murders In The US Set To Hit 126-Year-Low Following Illegal Immigrant Deportations: DHS

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Crime rates have fallen to “historic lows” across the United States, with homicides this year on track to register the lowest level in at least 126 years, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

In the first half of 2026, homicides were down 18 percent compared to the first half of last year, DHS said in a July 31 statement. Carjacking crimes tumbled 47 percent during this period, motor vehicle thefts fell 20 percent, robberies dropped 17 percent, and residential burglaries declined 13 percent.

The numbers come from a July 2026 report from the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) that assessed crime stats across various U.S. cities.

Compared to the first half of 2022, the second year of the Biden administration, homicides in the first half of 2026, the second year of the current Trump administration, were down by 51 percent, according to the CCJ report.

For violent crimes, 2 percent fewer aggravated assaults and 6 percent fewer gun assaults were reported in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year. However, domestic violence incidents were up 8 percent, and sexual assaults by 3 percent for this period.

When compared to the first half of 2019, the year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic onset, homicides, aggravated assault, gun assault, sexual assault, domestic violence, robbery, and carjacking crimes were all lower in the first six months of 2026, the report said.

In its statement, DHS gave examples of some of the illegal immigrants with criminal histories who have been deported from the United States: A Salvadoran national with convictions for homicide and assault, a Costa Rican with convictions for property crimes and burglary, a Honduran Tren de Aragua gang member convicted for robbery, and a Vietnamese national convicted for armed carjacking.

“President [Donald] Trump promised to make America safe again, and he has done just that,” Lauren Bis, assistant secretary at the DHS’s Office of Public Affairs, said in the statement.

“Crime has fallen to record lows under the Trump Administration.”

“It’s no surprise that this drop in crime coincides with deportations of dangerous criminal illegal aliens. It is common sense. When you remove criminals from the country, crime rates fall,” Bis said.

In the first year of the current Trump administration, almost three million illegal immigrants had left the United States, then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a Jan. 20 DHS statement.

Declining Homicides

The CCJ report said that there is no single explanation for the historic low in homicide crimes in the first half of the year. It cited potential impacts from changes in criminal justice operations and strategies, shifts in society and culture, and technological advances.

In a July 23 statement, CCJ said it planned on convening a two-day summit in September with researchers from fields such as criminology, psychology, economics, and sociology to examine the factors likely driving the decline in homicides.

“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity,” CCJ president Adam Gelb said in the statement.

“Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well,” Gelb said.

The White House attributed the crime decline in the first half of the year to the Trump administration’s policies in a July 29 statement.

America’s neighborhoods are now safer, registering fewer victims and a decisive end to the crime surge seen in the last decade, the White House said, highlighting that this was “not accidental.”

“It is the direct result of the Trump Administration’s relentless efforts to enforce the rule of law, back the police, and surge resources into communities,” according to the White House.

On Jan. 20, 2025, the first day in his second term, President Donald Trump signed an executive order restoring the death penalty, highlighting that capital punishment was an “essential tool” to deter and punish those who would commit heinous crimes.

The same day, Trump signed another executive order targeting illegal immigrants. In the order, Trump clarified that it is the policy of the United States to faithfully execute immigration laws against all removable illegal immigrants, especially those who “threaten the safety or security of the American people.”

And in April last year, Trump signed an executive order that focused on providing new best practices to local and state law enforcement to “aggressively police communities against all crimes.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 15:20

VC Money Floods Into US Nuclear Startups As AI Power Demand Explodes

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

• Global VC funding for nuclear fission and fusion startups has already topped $4.5 billion across 81 companies in 2026, on pace to beat 2025's $6.2 billion record.

• Big Tech figures including Sam Altman and Bill Gates are pouring money into fusion to keep up with AI's ballooning electricity demand.

• Critics warn the startup boom is skipping voluntary safety guardrails and pulling attention from proven large-scale reactor technology.

Venture capitalists are taking a major interest in nuclear energy start ups. Funding is surging for both nuclear fusion and fission firms as the technology becomes an increasingly essential part of a feasible pathway toward sustainable energy security in the face of the artificial intelligence boom.

According to reporting by Axios, global investment in both fission and fusion has topped USD $4.5 billion across 81 companies in 2026 so far. At this pace, by year’s end, this year will shatter 2025’s previous record of $6.2 billion for 93 companies.

Data center hyperscalers are driving up energy demand projections to previously unthinkable levels that will require an all-of-the-above approach to energy development that is likely to prominently feature nuclear energy as a round-the-clock source of zero-emissions electricity. In the United States, the public and private sectors alike are extremely bullish on the technology and clearly eager to usher in a new nuclear era. As a result, the majority of this year’s funding surge is going to U.S. companies.

Big Tech has taken a particular interest in expanding nuclear energy deployment and technological advancement to feed its own ballooning energy needs.

Some of the tech sector’s biggest names, including Bill Gates and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, are major investors in and advocates of nuclear fusion as an answer to AI’s ballooning energy problem.

"There's no way to get there without a breakthrough," he said at the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "It motivates us to go invest more in fusion."

The Trump administration, too, is a major proponent of nuclear energy expansion, with a particular focus on next-gen nuclear technologies as part of a broader push to "reestablish the United States as the global leader in nuclear energy” and “produce lasting American dominance in the global nuclear energy market.” To this end, Executive Order 14301, signed by Trump in May 2025, mobilizes significant resources from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program to fast-track the testing and commercialization of advanced nuclear technologies in order to bring them to scale.

These advanced technologies include nuclear fusion as well as small modular reactors (SMRs) which hold major promise for overcoming some of the hurdles that have been causing nuclear energy to fall out of fashion in the United States. Traditional nuclear power plants are enormously costly and face long timelines and miles of red tape to come online. The country’s most recent traditional nuclear power plant, Georgia’s Plant Vogtle, finally came online years late and billions over budget. The hope is that modular and alternative technologies won’t face the same issues, as they can be built offsite relatively cheaply.

SMRs are still an emerging technology. While one SMR design has been officially approved for development in the United States, and many more firms are seeking approval for their plans, zero SMRs have yet come online in the country.

“The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission took about six years to approve the first advanced small reactor design, from fission developer NuScale,” Axios reports.

“President Trump has sought to accelerate the process, aiming for 18 months. But that still could give first movers a major advantage in locking down contracts with data centers and electric utilities.”

With the backing of both the federal government and Silicon Valley, it’s no surprise that nuclear startups are going gangbusters. But while the increasing fragmentation and privatization of the nuclear energy sector could be great for innovation and expansion of the technology, it also poses some key drawbacks. For one thing, nuclear startups have so far shown a concerning disregard for voluntary safety guidelines that were tacitly accepted in the nuclear sector until now.

In addition to safety concerns, some critics have argued that a focus on cutting-edge nuclear energy technologies and startups may be diverting energy and funding from proven technologies that would better serve nuclear power capacity addition goals. A recent op-ed for the Wall Street Journal argued that “The administration is chasing unproven technology when it could encourage Wall Street investment in large-scale reactors,” and, as a result, Trump’s nuclear renaissance is stalling.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 14:40

After Blockbuster IPO, China's Memory Giant CXMT Plans Second Chip Plant In Beijing

CXMT, China's largest chipmaker by output and certainly by market value thanks to its blowout IPO pricing one week ago, which saw its stock surge more than 7x from its offering price of 8.66 yuan per share, is considering building a second memory-chip plant in Beijing ​and is in financing talks with a tech manufacturing hub backed by the local government, Reuters reported citing source familiar.

The move ‌comes as CXMT, which is currently the world's 4th largest maker of DRAM memory but has ambitions to become the world's largest, seeks to boost production amid a global chip shortage driven by debf-funded AI infrastructure spending. It highlights intensifying competition among Chinese local governments to attract CXMT, as the memory chipmaker pursues a major expansion following its $8.6 billion IPO last month, the largest mainland Chinese semiconductor listing on record.

Reuters previously reported that CXMT was building new plants in Shanghai and Hefei and was in ​discussions with authorities elsewhere about another facility.

Those projects, when fully operational, could double its capacity to more than 600,000 wafers per month. The new Beijing ​12-inch plant would be built in Yizhuang, about 20 km (12 miles) southeast of central Beijing, where CXMT already operates a ⁠fab producing dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips. CXMT currently operates two 12-inch DRAM ​fabs in Hefei and one in Beijing, each with capacity of about 100,000 wafers per month, the Reuters sources said.

CXMT is seeking at least 60 million yuan ($8.9 ​million) in support from the development zone's governing body, also known as the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, and other state-owned tech companies have also expressed interest in participating ​in the financing, they said.

The talks are at an early stage and the size and structure of any funding package could change, the sources said. It was not immediately clear whether the funding would come directly from the development zone's administrative authority or through its investment vehicles.

Reuters adds that the planned capacity and total ​investment for the proposed fab were not immediately known. Building a fab that can produce leading-edge DRAM chips usually costs more than $10 billion. 

The discussions began before CXMT's stock market debut last week, which provided ‌the company ⁠with fresh capital for an expansion drive during a memory-chip upcycle fueled by demand from AI infrastructure, data centres and consumer electronics. 

The company has become a key pillar of Beijing’s drive to build a self-sufficient chip industry and narrow the gap with the U.S. in strategic technologies such as AI amid a fierce tech rivalry between the two superpowers.

Although CXMT is the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer, it remains far smaller than Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron whose combined global ​market share approached 90% in the ​first quarter, according to data from ⁠Counterpoint Research.

Within China, however, CXMT's growing dominance has enabled it to raise prices for customers such as Huawei, Reuters reported last month. 

CXMT has been in the news over the past couple of months due to reports that have suggested that Apple is interested in buying the firm's memory chips. The global memory shortage has affected the Cupertino, California-based consumer electronics giant's supply chain as it has been unable to secure supplies without having to face price hikes.

Yet, as wccftech reports, others have suggested that CXMT's ability to target the global memory market is limited, as the firm has to primarily meet the needs of China's domestic memory market. US sanctions on China, which limit its ability to procure high-end chips and manufacturing equipment, have come at a time when Beijing is aiming towards semiconductor self-sufficiency despite the capital and knowledge-intensive nature of the industry. 

Today's report follows one that surfaced last week and claimed that CXMT was making progress with its LPDDR6 memory chips. These are among the latest in the world, and the sources suggested that the Chinese firm was eager to target the gap left by Samsung and Micron. The two are focused on making high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, and CXMT hopes to utilize the gap they've left to establish itself as a player in the global memory market. The sector is currently dominated by the two firms plus Korea's SK hynix, which control the vast majority of the market share.

The company's rise has been closely linked to the "Hefei model," under which the capital of Anhui province has used state funding to ​nurture strategic technology companies... because as we said a year ago, it is only a matter of time before the AI arms race is directly funded by the governments of China and the US directly. 

Beijing and Shanghai have also provided CXMT with funding and other support, as the cities seek a larger share of the economic and strategic benefits generated by the company's growth. 

CXMT's Beijing-based fab, operated by Changxin Jidian, was founded in 2020 and received funding from E-Town Capital, a state-backed investment arm of the Yizhuang development zone, and its ⁠affiliate Beijing ​E-Town Technology, according to corporate records.

The Beijing development area is a manufacturing base for technology and ​chip companies, including contract chipmaker SMIC, chip equipment maker Naura Technology and smartphone and electric-vehicle maker Xiaomi. 

The area is also positioning itself as a hub for robotics and AI. Last year, it hosted what organisers ​described as the world's first humanoid robot half-marathon, part of an effort to promote and test embodied-AI technologies.

News of China's aggressive push to boost memory output is one of the reasons for the weakness in memory and chip stocks in early trading, and also slammed Korea's Kospi which slumped 5% with Samsung / Hynix both tumbling -9%. 

Additionally, the market is again focused on Chinese open-source model releases, with BABA +4% on new Qwen model this weekend as well as DeepSeek V4 Flash model launched Friday. 

As reported earlier, BABA’s latest Qwen 3.8 Max Model was released overnight (stock closed +7% in HK) - a 2.4t parameter model (smaller than Kimi K3 @ 2.8t ) but looks relatively comparable on benchmarks (I.e. broadly Opus + level) and will go open-weight release next week.

The model is also far cheaper: API tokens are priced at $2/m input & $6/m output (cheaper than Kimi K3 @ $3/M input & $15/M ⁠output)...  & 80% cheaper than current GPT flagship 5.6 Sol's output tokens.

Qwen3.8-Max by @Alibaba_Qwen has reshaped the cost-performance Pareto frontier in Frontend Code Arena, with pricing of $2 per input MToken and $6 per output MToken.

Top models on the Pareto frontier:
- Claude-Opus-5
- Kimi-K3
- Qwen3.8-Max
- GLM-5.2
- DeepSeek-V4-Flash

Congrats… https://t.co/3S4tW1KmlI pic.twitter.com/CiWU7Hh4BD

— Arena.ai (@arena) August 3, 2026

The marketing campaign has been well received showing Qwen as an “always on workmate” that completes tasks while people go to the beach, fish & play tennis. 

Over the weekend, Goldman revised up its aggregate China model ARR estimates, now forecasting to reach US$13bn by year-end 2026 (prior: US$10bn) on higher demand /faster ramp.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 14:00

Kalshi & Polymarket's Combined Volume Reaches All-Time High In July, Topping $50 Billion

Authored by Danny Park via TheBlock.co,

Kalshi and Polymarket saw their combined trading volume soar to a new all-time high in July as prediction markets continued to gain steam around the World Cup.

According to The Block's data dashboard, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US posted $50.59 billion in combined monthly trading volume in July, marking a 7.8% increase from June's $46.95 billion monthly volume.

Kalshi remained in the lead, and recorded $37.7 billion in the past month. This marks a 14% month-over-month growth.

Notably, the monthly data indicates a shift in volume between Polymarket and Polymarket US. While Polymarket's monthly volume contracted 26% to $7.9 billion, the U.S. platform saw its volume rise 54% to $5 billion. The combined volume of Polymarket and Polymarket US decreased from $14 billion to $12.9 billion.

The U.S. platform, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, dropped its initial waitlist restrictions in May, opening the platform to all U.S. users. This allowed U.S. traders who had previously bypassed regional blocks to participate legitimately on the platform. 

Earlier this year, Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that U.S. traders drove about 30% of Polymarket's main, offshore platform volume during the 12 months ending April 30, 2026.

World Cup boost

July's overall surge in volume can be attributed to the FIFA World Cup, which started on June 11 and ended on July 19. Kalshi's prediction market on the final match between Spain and Argentina alone drew roughly $1.9 billion. Polymarket's bet predicting the World Cup winner attracted around $4 billion.

Since the end of the World Cup, however, open interest on the three prediction market platforms has dropped significantly, from around $2 billion at the start of July to $1.2 billion by the end of the month.

Despite growing activity and legitimacy, prediction markets continue to face U.S. legal scrutiny, primarily over sports-related contracts. 

Over a dozen state regulators have accused Kalshi and Polymarket of operating unlicensed gambling platforms, taking action to block event contracts in their respective states. In response, the platforms — alongside the CFTC — are contesting these state enforcement actions, arguing that federal oversight preempts state jurisdiction.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 13:40

Is The Momentum Crash Over?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

What a week that was...

Despite a hopeful bounce to end the month, it was a bloodbath for most assets. It was the Nasdaq’s worst July in 22 years, bonds’ biggest July yield spike since 2005, and oil’s biggest July jump in over 30 years.

Leaving investors with one big trillion-dollar question: is the momentum crash over?

As I discussed on Thursday on the Real Investment Show, the average retail investor portfolio is likely faring far worse than the broad market index. The momentum crash we just lived through was the fastest on record. It ended last Thursday with a $45 billion hedge fund handing its entire public equity book to Citadel in a single block trade.

None of it should have been a surprise. On June 22, in The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed, I wrote that a market running on flows, leverage, and shrinking leadership could melt up into July. It could also reverse hard the moment those mechanical buyers turned into sellers. The close of that piece was blunt, and was published on the exact day momentum peaked. It is also named the mechanism.

“Lastly, watch the long end of the curve. If Warsh’s signal keeps the ten-year climbing, the most expensive, most crowded, most rate-sensitive corner of this market, the same one soaking up forty cents of every dollar, is the corner that pays for it first.“

The most crowded corner of this market, the one soaking up forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar, would pay for rising yields first. That is precisely what happened. Two weeks ago, Momentum Meltdown Catches Traders By Surprise flagged the same divergence in miniature. Last week, The AI Capex Bill Comes Due walked through the $800 billion megacap air pocket. The only question left is whether the correction is finished or whether this was the first act.

Momentum Crashed. The Average Stock Did Not.

Start with the magnitude, because the numbers are without precedent. Morgan Stanley’s sector-neutral momentum index fell 17.4% over four sessions, the worst four-day stretch in the history of the series. The comparable declines were roughly 11% after the dot-com peak and again in the 2022 inflation bear, and 14% after the Covid crash. The technology and media slice of that basket dropped 36% in four days, against a prior record near 20% set in the 1999 to 2001 unwind.

You can see the same thing in instruments you can actually trade. The iShares Momentum ETF fell 18.0% from its June 22 peak to its July 29 low, and semiconductors, measured by SOXX, surrendered 29.0% over those same twenty-five sessions. Momentum broke. The equal-weight S&P 500 closed at a record high on July 28. Right in the middle of the wreckage.

While for many retail investors, it may “feel” like a market crash, it wasn’t. It was a rotation, and leveraged traders were liquidated.

None of that is new. In More Market Wisdom: Jesse Livermore, Part 2, we walked through how leadership rotates across cycles. The Nifty Fifty became the laggards of the late 1970s. Technology dominated the late 1990s, then delivered a lost decade. Energy was close to unownable from 2014 through 2020, then led the market in 2021 and 2022. Staying rigidly committed to yesterday’s leaders is the most reliable path to underperforming in the next cycle.

Diversification is what converts that rotation from a portfolio problem into a portfolio feature. We covered the practical version in Momentum Strategies, and Physics: Mass And Velocity Matter, and the structural version in The Passive Aggressive Market, where investors rotate hard between factor ETFs and still call it passive investing. Last week priced the difference. Own the equal-weight index, and you made a record high on July 28. Own the momentum factor, and you gave back 18%.

Leverage Was The Mechanism. Rates Lit The Fuse.

During Thursday’s meltdown, I called Michael Lebowitz, and we discussed that it “felt” as if someone was being liquidated. It turned out that a hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which ran leverage roughly 4x its equity base through total return swaps, was the victim. Within a day, it liquidated nearly 3/4 of its holdings.

It is the structure that matters. Prime brokers hold the physical shares while the client takes the economic exposure, so the position never appears in a public filing, and no single broker sees the whole book. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America were the counterparties here.

Here is the crucial point: When the collateral fell far enough, the “Prime Brokers” decided to sell. Not the fund.

We have written that sentence before, in Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets:

That process is at the discretion of the broker-dealers that extended that leverage in the first place.

So what tipped the collateral? Rates. After the FOMC meeting this past week, the front end of the curve barely flinched. The long end did the damage, with the 30-year closing that day at 5.20%, its highest level in 19 years. Nothing in this market is more sensitive to the long end than an unprofitable growth stock bought with borrowed money.

The backdrop was already stretched thin. Margin debt set another record in June at $1.50 trillion, up 49% from a year ago, while the net investor credit balance sank to a record negative $1.06 trillion. That is the thinnest cushion against forced selling ever recorded, a point we walked through in Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors.

The timing in the chart below is what matters. Leverage actually fell from January into March. Then it went vertical. Margin debt jumped 23.0% in the three months through June, and the credit cushion thinned by $268 billion over that same stretch. That build topped out precisely as momentum did.

Situational Awareness was not the only leveraged buyer in that corner, either. Citadel’s desk put levered ETF assets at a record $218 billion in June, up roughly 60% from the end of March, with semiconductor-linked leverage nearly tripling. We mapped where that money was pointing in A Supply Tsunami Is Coming.

The Daily Shot tracks a slightly wider universe, and its version shows the round trip. Net market exposure across US levered and inverse ETFs peaked near $436 billion in mid-June, about 3.4 times its level in the summer of 2021. It has since fallen 27%, and fund assets are down 25% from their peak.

That is the retail mirror of the de-grossing of the reported prime desks. It also explains why Thursday had so much fuel. Two dollars in a 3x fund carries six dollars of market risk, so when that complex shrinks, the selling is mechanical, and then it stops.

The Fundamentals Never Broke

Here is where the opportunity argument lives, and it deserves a fair hearing. Microsoft grew Azure revenue 43% in constant currency, above a 40.2% estimate, and surpassed $100 billion in annual Azure revenue for the first time. Amy Hood told the Street that capital spending will grow again in fiscal 2027. Amazon lifted its 2026 capex plan toward $220 billion on an AWS-driven beat.

That scorecard kills the simple version of the story. Amazon spent the most of anyone, $53 billion against $45 billion of operating cash flow, printed the worst free cash flow in the group, and jumped about 9% after hours. Alphabet spent less, burned less, and fell 7%.

So, why the difference? It clearly was not an issue of “cash flows” as the narrative suggests. What separated them was evidence that the spending is already earning inside the operating line.

• AWS grew 37% with segment operating income up 64% and margin back to 39.4%.
• Azure grew 43% with remaining performance obligations at $678 billion.

However, Meta went the other way, with operating income down 8% and the margin down from 43% to 31%. After that, the market did the talking with Microsoft rising 15.5% on Thursday, and Meta falling 8.0% in the same session. This wasn’t surprising after Meta missed by more than a $1 per share, guided Q3 revenue to the low end, and declined to commit to a 2027 spending figure.

The market is not punishing capital spending, nor rewarding cash flow. It is paying for proof that the spending is already earning inside the operating line. Read that again, because it is the entire trade.

Both halves of that scorecard are distorted by a single timing mismatch, which I laid out in “AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings.” Cash leaves now, so free cash flow understates these businesses. Depreciation lands later, so operating income flatters them. Roughly $760 billion in spending this year is offset by only about $211 billion in recognized depreciation.

So is the market mispricing Alphabet, which is investing, against Apple, which is not? Partly, yes. Alphabet was sold on an in-line core quarter, not a broken one, and 82% cloud growth against a contracted backlog is not a sign of a business in trouble. But that is not a free option either.

Consensus already assumes free cash flow snaps back from roughly $16 billion this year to $387 billion by 2029. That snapback is an assumption, not a result. And Microsoft just stretched the useful life of its data centers from fifteen years to twenty-five, which cuts reported depreciation without changing a single server. Demand is REAL. What broke was the financing stacked on top of it, and who pays the depreciation bill remains unsettled.

Is The Correction Over? The 2000 Playbook Says No.

So, for the one question everyone wants an answer to: “Is it safe to go back into the ‘momentum’ waters?”

BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky called time on the momentum crash Thursday morning, and on the bounce I think he’s right. Goldman’s high-minus-low momentum index had fallen 23% below its 200-day average after sitting 40% above it in mid-June. It has rarely spent much time beyond 20% below that line in twenty-five years. Stretched is stretched. A dislocation that extreme produces a Thursday almost mechanically, and Microsoft’s print gave buyers a reason to show up at once.

However, a bounce is not a bottom. Krinsky’s own 2000 comparison is the useful part of that note. One month past the dot-com peak, the SOX had fallen 35%. It then rallied roughly 37% and still went on to test its 200-day moving average. Semiconductors closed Thursday 23.0% below the June 22 peak, 11.1% under the 50-day moving average, but still 25.6% above the 200-day.

Sit with that last figure for a second. Even after the fastest momentum crash on record, SOXX trades a quarter above its own long-term trend line. Trapped longs from June do not sell on the first bad day. They sell into the first rally that gets them close to even.

What Should Investors Do Now

Okay, what do we do now heading into the seasonal weak months of August and September? First, treat this bounce as a gift for repositioning, not an invitation to re-risk. The forced seller is gone. But Citadel holds a large block of the same paper and has no obligation to keep it. Secondly, if the 30-year keeps threatening a multi-year breakout, that adds to the risk, and that one variable decides whether the AI complex gets a durable bid or another leg lower.

However, there are opportunities in the rubble, and the following is a quick screen to start from, grouped by what each name actually does in the buildout. Look at the last column before anything else, because Friday rewrote it. Five names now sit above where they were at the momentum peak, and the top two are Microsoft and Amazon, the two heaviest spenders in the group. While some of the selling was certainly due to the liquidation of Situational Awareness, not all of it was. Everything that builds, supplies, or finances the buildout, without yet showing a return, is still down 10% to 47%.

Two things follow. The levered bucket is already flushed, so the case for trimming it is no longer about valuation; it is about which balance sheets survive a retest. And the builders and suppliers are where contracted revenue meets washed-out prices, which is the part of this list I would spend the weekend on.

My read is a tradable rally that fails that potentially fails, particularly if rates continue to push higher this week. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong by buying quality early. That’s the cheaper mistake. We continue to suggest using strength to upgrade quality, cutting names whose only thesis was price momentum, and holding cash to act on a retest of support.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 13:00

Washington State Wildfires Trigger Mass Evacuations, Emergency Declaration

Thousands of people in Spokane County, Washington, have been evacuated as parts of the city of Spokane are under a “Leave Immediately” emergency as three wildland fires forced evacuations.

Spokane County Emergency Management describes the emergency as “Level 3: Go, Leave Now, Leave Immediately!”

Officials said 60,000 people within Spokane city limits have been evacuated. Spokane County Fire District 3 Fire Chief Cody Rohrbach said 640 structures were destroyed in the Old Trails Fire alone.

The county website states:

“There is an immediate threat to your safety—you need to leave NOW. Emergency services may not be able to assist you. You will not be allowed to return until conditions are safe.”

As Tom Gantert reports for The Epoch Times, Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson declared a statewide wildfire emergency on July 31 and imposed a statewide ban on most outdoor and agricultural burning through Sept. 30 as drought, unusually high temperatures, and strong winds continue to fuel record-setting wildfires across the state.

The emergency declaration was issued ahead of what the National Weather Service described as a “particularly dangerous situation” Red Flag Alert, with “extreme” weather conditions.

According to the governor’s office, Washington is experiencing its fourth consecutive year of statewide drought. More than 1,000 fires have burned approximately 425,000 acres this year, the highest total since 2021. More than 200,000 acres are now burning in 12 large wildfires across the state.

The statewide burn ban prohibits activities including yard debris burning, trash disposal, land clearing, weed abatement, and bonfires and campfires that are not contained in approved fire rings or fire pits. The ban does not apply to liquid- or gas-fueled stoves and grills used over nonflammable surfaces, permitted agricultural burning, or contained campfires in designated campgrounds and on private property.

The emergency proclamation also allows Washington to request additional resources through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact, a nationwide mutual aid system, and authorizes additional activation of the Washington National Guard to support firefighting operations as needed.

Ferguson also activated 110 members of the Washington National Guard to support firefighting operations across the state, according to the statement. Those National Guard members were in addition to 27 helicopter crew members activated earlier in July.

“This year has already been one of our busiest wildfire years on record, and we just started August,” Commissioner of Public Lands Dave Upthegrove said in a statement.

“Our firefighters are already stretched thin across the state, and with more heat and wind expected this weekend and for the rest of the summer, any new spark on our tinder dry landscapes can lead to another devastating wildfire. I’m urging all Washingtonians to not be that spark.”

The fires are “really the worst natural disaster our region has faced,” Spokane Mayor Lisa Brown said at a news conference Sunday afternoon.

Nearly 12,000 utility customers in Washington, the vast majority of them in Spokane, were without power Sunday, according to the utility tracker PowerOutage.us.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 12:40

Texas Approves AI Data Center Co-Location Next To Wind Farm, With Curtailment Caveats

By Marlene Wilden of UtilityDive

The Public Utility Commission of Texas last week approved a net metering arrangement for a 260-MW AI data center co-located with a wind farm of approximately the same capacity in a case that could serve as a template for other co-located loads in the Lone Star State.

The data center is the second one planned for the site, and the developer had argued it should not be subject to the same curtailment requirements as the first because the total load of both – about 525 MW – exceeds the generation resource’s capacity of 265.5 MW. 

An Oncor substation in December 2025 next to an up to 600-MW Skybox data center in Hutto, Texas. A data center net metering arrangement approved by the Public Utility Commission of Texas on July 24, 2026, could serve as a template for other co-located loads in the Lone Star State. Getty Images

The commission rejected that argument. According to the July 23 order, the data center must be capable of curtailing its full load within 30 minutes during grid emergencies, with physical breaker disconnection if necessary. It is also barred from participating in paid demand response programs tied to the arrangement.

The proceeding represents one of the first major tests of Texas’ SB 6, which became law last year and established new rules for large loads in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’ territory, including giving the grid operator the authority to disconnect data centers during grid emergencies.

Rather than creating a project-specific exception, commissioners largely adopted ERCOT’s proposed reliability conditions. The order allows the co-location arrangement to move forward while establishing operating requirements for future behind-the-meter projects. 

Chris Talley, co-founder of GridTracker, wrote in a LinkedIn post following the decision that the order is not a “death blow” to co-location in ERCOT.

“It just means that this architecture now essentially requires full backup capacity,” he said.

In a follow-up message to Utility Dive, Talley clarified that by “full backup,” he meant resources capable of carrying the load off-grid for a meaningful period of time, rather than simply riding through a short interruption. He cautioned that this was an “untested assumption” and pointed to a pending co-location application from Amazon and Vistra to build a data center campus next to the Comanche Peak nuclear plant, southwest of Fort Worth, as a case to watch. 

“How ERCOT and the Commission treat that arrangement will be very telling,” Talley said.

The decision requires the data center to operate with greater flexibility than a traditional industrial load. The order states ERCOT should provide 60 minutes’ advance notice “when practicable,” while allowing the operator to voluntarily commit to a faster 10-minute response. 

By prohibiting the project from receiving compensation for reducing its load during grid emergencies, the order distinguishes mandatory emergency curtailment from voluntary grid services. The ruling treats the ability to rapidly shut down as a reliability requirement for operating behind generation.

Crusoe, the developer of the AI data center, and Ensign, the large load customer that plans to operate the site, argued that forcing the entire site offline was disproportionate and that additional curtailment was unnecessary after the earlier reliability condition on the co-located wind project. Commissioners largely adopted the administrative law judge’s recommendation, including revisions from Chairman Thomas Gleeson, and concluded that allowing the second load to remain online while the first is curtailed would undermine the goal of ensuring generation capacity is available to the grid during emergencies. 

The case also attracted filings from the Texas Competitive Power Advocates and natural gas producer BKV, which argued the proposed framework could discourage future co-location projects. PUCT staff contended those parties lacked standing under the governing statute, and the commission’s final order did not address their arguments.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 12:20

Trump Blasts Oil Majors: "Get Gas Prices Down Now!"

President Trump blasted oil companies on Monday morning for high gasoline pump prices, telling them:

That goes for other Oil Companies as well…and get your consumer (retail!) Oil Prices DOWN, NOW! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT

As of Monday morning, the national average for 87-octane gasoline at the pump stood at $4.09 a gallon, according to AAA data, marking the second consecutive week above the politically sensitive $4 threshold. Pump prices surged following the tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, although upward momentum has begun to moderate as both sides signal a willingness to pursue a negotiated resolution to the conflict.

Here's the timeline of our reporting:

July 15: US Gasoline Prices Could Top $4 Per Gallon Within Days

July 20: US Gas Prices Cross Politically Sensitive $4 Level Closely Watched By Trump

July 24: Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert

Then diplomacy:

August 2: Trump Says "Perimeters Of A Deal Reached" With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince

August 3: Iran Denies Negotiations With US After Trump Announces Talks For Monday Afternoon

Latest energy reporting:

Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated

"Diesel Is At Epicenter Of Supply Squeeze,": Goldman

"Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night

Trump's pressure on major oil companies to bring down gasoline prices comes as the national average remains above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold, with the midterm elections now less than 100 days away. Elevated fuel costs risk becoming a political liability, which helps explain why Washington is racing toward diplomacy following the recent tit-for-tat strikes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 12:00

Groundhog Day

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

It’s Monday morning again and it feels like Groundhog Day as I sit down to write that the US President has (again) halted strikes on Iran and teased that a diplomatic breakthrough is close. Brent crude prices have dutifully fallen in early trade, risk currencies are rallying and equity markets are poised to extend the gains posted late last week.

In his trademark bloviating style, President Trump posted to Truth Social that the USA was “locked and loaded” to unleash “levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II”, but that “for the future benefit of the WORLD” he had responded to a request from Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to hold off as the outline of a deal had been agreed. Trump went on to claim that the deal would include the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”, as well as an end to the Iranian nuclear threat.

Obviously we’ve heard this one before. Iran’s Fars news agency reports that “informed sources” deny that any agreement has been reached on the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and that policy regarding the critical shipping route remains unchanged.

Meanwhile, Iran’s IRNA news agency reported that negotiations between Iran and Oman over the administration of the strait are in the final stages. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said that talks have centerd around agreeing a new route for shipping, and that the talks are unrelated to the question of whether Hormuz is open or closed. He said that issue is a separate discussion. However, markets will take the positive signal that agreeing a new shipping route implies future shipping. What it does not tell us is where the ships will head to and under what conditions.

Of course, the other aspect of the Hormuz Groundhog Day is that later in the week strikes typically resume, oil prices rally, equities sell, and bond yields rise. While there is every chance of that happening this week for now the impression seems to be of ‘strikes for strikes’. This would require somebody to break the current pause that seems to suit the purposes of both sides for the moment. Encouragingly, Iranian sources continue to stress “proportionality” in responding to US aggression, which seems to imply an unwillingness to escalate, but there also continues to be a sense that the civilian government in Tehran is not on the same page as the IRGC – who broke the most recent pause in hostilities by attacking US targets in Jordan.

Less than five days left until Trump announces the next massive Iran strikes at 4:01pm on Friday

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2026

The relentless logic of arithmetic continues to be the critical factor in Middle East developments. Markets have so far taken large draws in global inventories in their stride with price rises mostly insufficient to cause severe demand destruction. At the same time, higher prices have induced a supply response by lifting US oil rig counts by almost 11% since the war broke out, increasing refinery capacity utilization, and prompting OPEC+ to announce another 188,000 lift in production quota from September onwards.

The physical realities of war in the Eastern Europe and the Middle East have rendered the latter a mostly theoretical increase for the time being, but could contribute to a structural reshuffling of the energy deck on the other side of the current crisis. Product markets continue to provide the clearest hints of the seriousness of the current supply squeeze, with Singapore gasoil spot prices still sitting more than two standard deviations above the long-run spread to Brent.

China continues to play the role of balancing entry in global energy trade while also pedalling faster than most to reduce its dependence on imported energy. The manufacturing investment boom in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles is helping to offset the slow-motion trainwreck that is the Chinese real estate market, while also building supply chain resilience and doing planet Earth a solid with regards to climate change.

While geopolitics and a protectionist tilt away from Chinese goods in an effort to safeguard domestic supply chains is underway, some are still happy to take the subsidy from China and import those cheap goods to boost domestic living standards. Australia is one such country, where new household battery installations in the first half of 2026 was roughly equal to total household battery installed capacity in the United States, a country with more than twelve times the population. BloombergNEF reports that Australia now ranks third globally in terms of installed battery capacity, behind only the USA and China. This sounds good in the short term, but critics will note that this perhaps invites new risks for Australia’s domestic energy infrastructure – not to mention the trade and security relationship with the United States.

Electric vehicle sales has similarly surged since energy flows through Hormuz were interrupted, with battery and hybrid vehicle sales reaching almost 50% of total sales in Q2 and interrupting Australia’s long-running love affair with diesel pickup trucks. The surge in EV sales has accrued mostly to new market entrant brands from China and to (largely Chinese-made) Tesla. Year-on-year sales growth in June was 131% for BYD, 89% for Tesla, 327% for Geely, 569% for Jaecoo, 1660% for Zeekr and 316% for Leapmotor. Four of the top ten, and seven of the top twenty best-selling brands are now Chinese.

The success of those new entrant Chinese brands highlights the challenges faced by legacy manufacturers in the US, Japan, South Korea and, especially, Europe – where marques such as Fiat and Citroen have already exited the market, while Peugeot is reportedly considering a similar move. In an era where supply chain sovereignty and industrial capacity matters for national security, how can legacy manufacturers compete with the Chinese industrial juggernaut without meaningful restrictions on Chinese trade or massive export subsidies of their own?

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 11:00

Kamikaze Drone Slams Into Crowded Russian Black Sea Beach, Killing 3

The Russia-Ukraine war has dangerously spilled over into the Black Sea, with cargo ships, tankers, and oil and gas infrastructure being targeted by both sides. The sharp escalation in fighting across the region has also come at a cost to civilians.

Shocking video circulating on X Monday morning appears to show a Ukrainian suicide drone striking a crowded beach in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Gelendzhik.

Russian media outlet Interfax reports that three people were killed and more than a dozen injured "when a drone crashed in the village of Arkhipo-Osipovka near Gelendzhik."

The outlet continued:

"A tragedy has occurred in Gelendzhik. Three people were killed in the village of Arkhipo-Osipovka due to falling UAV debris, according to preliminary information. (...) Another 13 people, including children, were injured. They are receiving necessary medical care," Kondratyev wrote on his Max channel.

He noted that the attack targeted civilian infrastructure. Emergency and special services are working at the drone wreckage sites.

Footage:

In Gelendzhik, Russia, a drone crashed directly onto a beach with tourists.

At least 3 people were killed and 13 others injured. pic.twitter.com/UAhg7uSBPH

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 3, 2026

Audio from the footage appears to capture Russian air-defense forces firing on the incoming drone moments before it struck the crowded beach. It remains unclear whether civilians were deliberately targeted or whether the drone was damaged by automatic fire, causing it to deviate from its intended flight path.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:00

Futures Rise As Oil Plunge Helps Yields Ease From Nosebleed Highs; All Eyes On Yentervention

Futures are higher with both tech and small caps outperforming as Trump points to a deal/advanded discussions with Iran (which Iran is naturally denying), which is helping push energy prices and bond yields lower as the USD depreciates. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% led by Mag 7 stocks higher with Semis lagging. Energy is lower with the remaining sectors seeing a bid pre-mkt as the lower oil / bond yields are creating what JPM hopes will be an ‘Everything Rally’. Though the Kospi against tumbled overnight, EWY is +1% pre-market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged nearly 9% each, while TSMC fell more than 2%, following their record surge on Friday.  The yen rallied sharply before paring most of the gain amid speculation that authorities may have intervened to prop up the currency again after coordinated action between the US and Japan last week. Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar fell 0.1%. WTI is under $80/bbl dragging the Energy complex lower as we see this move boosting both Base and Precious Metals with Ags lower. Today’s macro data focus is opn the final July reading of S&P Global manufacturing PMI due at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by ISM manufacturing for July and construction spending for June at 10 a.m. Omdia total vehicle sales are due through the day.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher:  Amazon (AMZN) rises 1.6% as the e-commerce and cloud-computing company is set to extend gains after reporting cloud revenue acceleration for a fifth straight quarter (Alphabet +1.7%, Microsoft +1.8%, Meta +1.6%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple +0.6%, Nvidia -0.3%)

• Atkore (ATKR) jumps 27% after Prysmian agreed to buy the electrical-infrastructure products maker for $95 a share in cash, valuing the firm at $3.8 billion, including debt.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) gains 5% as AstraZeneca Plc has explored an acquisition of the company, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares fall 5.7% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation to underweight, citing lower expectations for the circulation of the company’s stablecoins in the future.
• CNH Industrial (CNH) rises 5% after the manufacturer of tractors and harvesters boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) rises 8% as the plumbing and HVAC supplies company is set to replace Electronic Arts in the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading Aug. 5.
• Marriott International (MAR) falls 3% after the hotel operator posted disappoingint second-quarter revenue.
• Krystal Biotech (KRYS) falls 7% after biopharmaceutical company reported net product revenues for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
• Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) and Indivior Pharmaceuticals (INDV) rise after the companies agreed to combine in a tax-free all-stock merger of equals. Supernus jumps 17% while Indivior is up 8%.
• Sportradar Group (SRAD) falls 14% after the sports data provider cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

In other AI news, Alibaba released its biggest ever AI model, Qwen3.8-Max, claiming performance on par with global leader Anthropic and ranking higher on several benchmarks than the headline-grabbing Kimi K3 from Moonshot. More than 90% of companies, meanwhile, are blowing through their AI budgets, according to a recent McKinsey survey.

Middle East hostilities, AI stock valuations and inflation fears continue to dominate markets, but traders are also looking ahead to the key US July jobs report on Friday for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. SpaceX’s first earnings release since its record-breaking IPO is on Tuesday, while European heavyweights including HSBC Holdings Plc and Novo Nordisk A/S are also reporting.

Currency markets are front and center in terms of drama today, with news that the US and Japan took joint action to help lift the yen from its four-decade low, and Bessent vowing that the US “will not hesitate” to do more if needed, although it appears that after $100BN or so in FX intervention in the past two days, the USDJPY is once again moving higher, as it should as no amount of one-time intervention can stop its inevitable collapse.

It’s a busy week for calendar events, with a slew of labor market data leading up to Friday’s payrolls report, and more big earnings including SpaceX’s inaugural report as a public company. In deals, the weekend brought news that AstraZeneca has explored an acquisition of Bristol Myers Squibb. That combination would create one of the world’s largest drugmakers, though it’s unclear if discussions are still ongoing.

Brent crude tumbled after Trump reversed his Friday (after the close of course) threat of massive attacks, instead saying fresh US-Iran talks would begin Monday, boosting optimism the two sides may reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iranian officials saying there were no ongoing talks with Washington. What really happened is that Trump called off a planned attack on Iran in response to pleas from allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. Adding to the positive sentiment, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks between his country and Oman were in the final stages of agreeing on a new route through Hormuz.

“Geopolitical news is helping out with oil prices going down and easing pressure on yields,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “There is, however, a real lingering issue on bond yields, on leverage, on Fed policy: until there’s clarity on these fronts, it’s hard to say that the stock market is all clear.”

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that the momentum selloff in AI stocks is likely over, and he expects US stock market leadership to rotate toward companies with stable earnings and strong margins. Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte, meanwhile, reckons the rotation back into tech stocks that started last week has further to run.

That said, volatility remains top of mind. The growing popularity of leveraged ETFs has led to a surge in demand for “crash puts” and other exotic derivatives, which allow banks to hedge against potential losses. The SOX Index had intraday swings of at least 2% every trading day last month, something that hasn’t happened since 2020.

The shakiness of the tech trade, and an underwhelming response to big tech earnings, means that the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since the start of the earnings season. That’s despite US firms being on track to post a 29% surge in quarterly EPS, among the highest on record outside of post-crisis recovery years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Earnings revisions have seen net upgrades for 15 weeks in a row, the longest streak since 2022, according to a Citigroup index.

In other assets, bond investors say the risk of a deeper Treasury rout is rising as Fed Chair Warsh keeps investors in the dark about how officials will respond to the evolving economy. One explanation for why rates went higher after the Fed presentation, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok, is that markets understand the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation, but with no forward guidance, don’t understand how it will get there. 

Marriott International, Loews and Tyson Foods are among companies scheduled to report before the market open. Worldwide RevPar at Marriott is expected to grow about 3% in constant-currency, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings from Palantir and Vertex Pharma are due later in the day.

European stocks advance, with travel and auto shares in the lead, as signs of progress between the US and Iran spurred a retreat in oil prices. Energy as well as food and beverage stocks are the biggest laggards. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.3% to 651.26. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• A UBS basket of European airline stocks rises as much as 3.5% on Monday as a slide in Brent crude futures soothed concerns of higher jet fuel prices
• Clarkson shares jump as much as 16% to an all-time high after the British shipping group reported first-half results way ahead of expectations and said it expected similar outturn for full-year
• PostNL gains as much as 10%, the most since September, after the Dutch mail firm delivers what KBC Securities describes as a “resilient set” of first-half results
• Corbion rallies as much as 5.9%, the most since mid-June, as Oddo BHF upgrades the Dutch food ingredients firm to outperform, saying Friday’s guidance reset de-risks the investment case
• Mersen rallies as much as 14% in Paris, after Berenberg upgraded to buy, noting a first-half earnings beat and upgraded guidance at the electronics manufacturer, driven by growth in its power division
• RWS shares rise as much as 15%, their steepest climb since April, after the AI solutions company said it had entered into a binding agreement to buy Acolad
• Ipsen shares fall as much as 3.8% after Jefferies downgraded its rating on the drugmaker to underperform from hold, saying investors are underestimating the long-term competitive threat to its key drug Somatuline from Camurus’ CAM2029
• AstraZeneca shares fall as much as 7.8% to the lowest intraday since October, as analysts questioned the strategic rationale of a possible deal between the British drugmaker and Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Sobi) falls as much as 5.1%, the most since December, after the company announced that CEO Guido Oelkers has decided to step down to take up another position outside the company

Asian stocks retreated at the start of a new month, with South Korea’s heavyweight chipmakers sliding again after a dizzying rally on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.7%, paring an earlier loss of 1.3%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged nearly 9% each, while TSMC fell more than 2%. The Kospi slumped 5.1% following an unprecedented 18% surge on Friday. Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed stock jumped the most since early July after releasing its latest flagship AI model, lending some support to the regional gauge. Stocks in Japan also declined as automakers and other exporters dropped amid concerns about a stronger yen, following joint currency intervention with the US. Traders remain on high alert for further moves by the authorities. Benchmarks in India and the Philippines were among gainers. 

In FX, the Japanese yen remains in focus after strengthening overnight following reports that around $34 billion was spent in Friday’s intervention to support the currency. Still, showing just how powerless such interventions are, the yen erased most of its earlier upside although is still outperforming G-10 peers, rising 0.2% against the greenback despite and nearly $100BN in joint US-Japan interventions on Thursday and Friday. The dollar fell as much as 1.4% to 155.23 yen in Monday trading, the fourth-straight day of lower USD/JPY, before paring losses at 156.92. The greenback gained against other G10 currencies.

“This intervention does not change the fundamentals of a Fed close to hiking and Tokyo running a loose set of monetary and fiscal policies, which are weighing on the yen,” said Chris Turner, head of markets at ING. “We struggle to see this bilateral action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155,” he says; but it limits investors “from chasing USD/JPY through 160 and buys time for Tokyo to introduce more yen-positive policies”

In rates, treasuries are extending gains into the early US session amid tumbling oil prices after President Donald Trump over the weekend called off a threatened major attack on Iran, while Tehran suggested that talks to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress. US 10-year yields fall 6 bps to 4.68% after rising to a year-to-date high on Friday. Gilts lead gains in European government bonds, with UK 10-year borrowing costs falling 9 bps and back below 5%. Treasury yields richer by 4bp to 6bp across the curve with long-end lagging slightly, steepening 5s30s and 10s30s spreads by more than 1bp; 10-year yields is around 4.68% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1bp and 3bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. This week’s dealer forecasts call for a sharp pickup vs last week, with about $50 billion of new US investment-grade transactions projected. Dealers forecast about $130 billion of new US investment-grade debt offerings in August vs $99.55 billion in August 2025

In commodities, Brent crude futures drop 4.8% to near $84 a barrel after Trump said new talks with Iran would begin on Monday after calling off a planned attack. Precious metals rise with spot silver up about 1%. Bitcoin falls 1.3%.

Today's US economic data calendar includes July final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), July ISM manufacturing and June construction spending (10am). Ahead this week are JOLTS job openings, ISM services and July jobs report. No Fed speakers are scheduled for Monday; appearances are scheduled later this week by Schmid, Cook, Daly, Musalem, Barkin and Bowman.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• A private gauge showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July, remaining in expansion territory and broadly echoing the official factory survey, which signaled a contraction. The RatingDog general manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.9 in last month, down from 51.7 in June, according to a statement released Monday. WSJ
• A version of Chinese startup DeepSeek's flagship AI model is by ‌far the least expensive to run on benchmark tests among well-known models globally and more than 100 times cheaper to run than Anthropic's Claude Fable 5, according to a research firm. RTRS
• The yen rallied on talk of fresh intervention after last week’s coordinated US-Japan campaign. The two governments said they would not hesitate to move again after their first joint yen action in 15 years. Japan likely spent around $34 billion on Friday’s FX intervention. BBG
• OPEC and its allies pressed ahead with another oil production increase, a move that would complete the group’s planned return of voluntarily withheld barrels to the market while setting the stage for potentially difficult talks over future quotas. WSJ
• The US Senate unveiled a bipartisan stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded through Dec. 11 and avert a shutdown this fall. BBG
• Oil slumped and futures rose as Donald Trump called off strikes on Iran and said talks on a deal would begin today. Iran denied it’s currently negotiating with the US but suggested an agreement with Oman on routes through the Strait of Hormuz may be close. BBG
• Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh this week floated to colleagues the prospect of meeting less often, which would mark a substantial shift in its operations, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
• AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb held merger talks, people familiar said. The megadeal would create one of the world’s biggest pharmaceutical groups, valued at almost $400 billion. FT
• California’s Democratic Party has endorsed the state’s proposed billionaire tax, marking a win for its advocates three months before Californians vote on the measure. WSJ

Top Iran News

• US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
• In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there's a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.
• US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.
• US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNN
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran's readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
• Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.
• Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.
• UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.
• Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
• Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
• Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief from Trump's cancellation of Iran strikes, with a mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets also digested weak Chinese PMI data and confirmation of joint US-Japan intervention on the yen. ASX 200 was ultimately flat, with underperformance in energy, real estate and financials offset by resilience in defensives. Nikkei 225 retreated amid increased rate hike bets following last week's hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference, while there were also headwinds from a firmer currency after the US and Japan confirmed they jointly intervened to support the yen on Friday. KOSPI underperformed amid weakness in its tech heavyweights and with participants digesting earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid divergences in the tech sector as hyperscalers advanced with Alibaba shares among today's best performers after launching its Qwen 3.8 Max AI model, while chipmakers were pressured. Meanwhile, the mainland was subdued following disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data and as US-China frictions lingered, with MOFCOM criticising the US addition of Chinese companies to its forced labour entities list.

Top Asian News

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted "Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements.Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention."
• Japan's Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen buying intervention with the US on Friday and won't hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US, adding intervention was to address recent excessive and disorderly moves in the yen.
• Japan top currency diplomat Mimura said they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention, adding joint intervention could be seen as the culmination of US-Japan currency alliance, and will continue to work closely with the BoJ.
• US President Trump, when asked regarding US intervening in the yen, said the US is intervening because the US has a good relationship with Japan, and we're always there for Japan, adding the US is getting financial benefit out of the arrangement.
• BoJ data suggested Japan conducted around JPY 5.3tln of currency intervention on Friday; July's money market conditions account shows a shortfall of around 11.4tln.
• PBoC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy throughout H2 2026, with a focus on interest rate supervision, according to CCTV.

European bourses start the week broadly higher across the board, helped by the announcement by US President Trump over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy benchmarks have dropped as a result, with the broader Energy sector lower by 1.4%. Elsewhere, EZ and UK Manufacturing PMIs were ticked lower. Within the broader EZ release, S&P stated that new work inflows remain worryingly weak and that the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline figure (51.9) suggests. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Autos is the clear outperformer, followed by Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services. Outside of Energy, Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Health Care are the sector laggards. On a quiet day of European earnings, there have been a lot of M&A stories. Starting with the biggest story of the day, the FT reported that AstraZeneca have been in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a potential merger, which would be the biggest pharma deal of all time. Shares of Astra have slumped by over 7% at one point, with BMY shares up over 7% pre-market. However, the merger will come under tough antitrust scrutiny, according to analysts at BMO, due to the significant business overlap between the Co.'s cancer drug portfolios. In other M&A moves: Prysmian (-1.8%), acquires Atkore (+26% pre-market) for USD 3.8bln; BMPS (+0.2%), considering the acquisition of Banco BPM according to the FT; Ageas (+2.4%), sells its minority stake in Eqita for c. USD 1.2bln; Holcim (-1.7%), sells its Philippines business for at least USD 807mln.

Top European News

• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.5).
• EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 51.4).
• German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 50.3).
• French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 51.2).
• Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.3 vs Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.2).
• Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.2 vs Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 49.7).
• German Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%).
• German Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%).
• Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) Y/Y 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%).
• Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0%).

FX

• G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck bar EUR (-0.1%) and JPY (+0.3%). NOK (-0.9%) underperforms amid sharply lower oil prices.
• USD is firmer against most G10 peers except the Yen, whose gains are sufficient to keep DXY unchanged. A lot of moving parts, including geopolitics and Treasury action in FX markets. Geopolitics remain bearish for the USD, with Brent Oct'26 down ~7% after the US cancelled planned strikes on Iran and anticipates negotiations to resume today. Aside from this (and geopolitics) is incoming negotiations commentary and some US data, including the July ISM manufacturing release. DXY found buyers below 99.50 and the 100 DMA at 99.70. The next region to watch is around 100, which has proven sticky throughout the last few sessions.
• No real move seen in the EUR to the final EZ manufacturing PMI read, where revised metrics were broadly unchanged despite the revision period coinciding with energy upside related to the breakdown of the US-Iran MoU. Within the EZ-wide release, commentary downplayed the strong figure, noting "factories continue to reduce headcounts.... the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline numbers might suggest." EUR/USD gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 1.1520 base; the 50 DMA is likely to be supported at 1.1480. EUR/JPY gradually moved higher amid profit-taking around 180. Elsewhere, FT reported that the US Treasury intervened in the market by buying JPY for EUR.
• Several factors continue to buoy the JPY after roughly 5% gains against the Buck over the past three sessions. Remarks from top FX diplomat Mimura coincided with USD/JPY downside overnight. He noted "they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention" and "will respond to FX in coordination with monetary policy", implying the BoJ should continue policy normalisation in reflection of the currency; remarks which pushed the pair to a 155.26 base, a level not seen since May where the low was 155.03. JPMorgan sees little chance coordinated intervention would drive a sustained rally that pushes the pair below 150, while ING said it struggles to see the action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155.

Fixed Income

• The marked pullback in energy has weighed on yields, with fixed benchmarks firmer (ex-JGBs) across the board. No substantial move to Final PMIs or the morning’s other data points. Instead, we await details from the new round of US-Iran negotiations from this afternoon, and look back on themes from last week and the weekend; namely, JPY intervention & Fed reports/commentary.
• Bunds as high as 124.80, firmer by 40 ticks, but shy of the 124.94 peak from Friday and then a handful of levels from early last week between 125.04-25. Fleeting upside on a particularly poor German retail sales series this morning. Thereafter, Germany’s final Manufacturing PMI was unrevised, and showed an “impressive start” to Q3. However, caveats apply to this and were neatly surmised in the downwardly-revised EZ series, with new work inflows weak and as such headcounts continue to be reduced.
• Gilts, as is usually the case amid energy-driven moves, outperform. Firmer by over 60 ticks, but also shy of levels from early last week, with a double-top at 87.24 the first point vs today’s 87.12 high. Thereafter, 87.32 and 87.51 come into view. For the UK, specifics light, focus on energy as alluded to, no move to the Final Manufacturing PMI which saw a downward revision and somewhat mixed commentary. While the broader focus remains the global policy backdrop, after Bailey pushed back on edging toward a hike (keeping the extended hold narrative in play) vs commentary from and reporting around the Fed.
• USTs at a 108-16 peak, yet to test the 108-20+ to 108-30 highs from last week. Ahead, the space looks to its own Final Manufacturing PMI before the ISM print and then an AtlantaFed update, in addition to Treasury financing estimates. Looking back, the late-Friday & weekend focus was on geopolitics which has driven the bulk of action (see Commodities), alongside commentary from and reporting around the Fed. Musalem said the UST sell off sent a signal that credibility must be earned via communication and action. Additionally, the NYT reported that Chair Warsh is considering, and raised at the last meeting, reducing the number of policy meetings from the current eight. The latter points are potentially keeping US yields somewhat bid, and perhaps explain why USTs are yet to test the highs from last week, in contrast to peers.
• Finally, JGBs are under pressure. The benchmark opened higher and climbed to a 126.96 peak early on, before reversing and falling to 126.74 and since a 126.63 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks at most. A reversal that came as the US and Japan formally confirmed the joint JPY action last week, and kept open the possibility of further intervention. Amidst this, and driving JGBs lower, FX Chief Mimura added that there is a “shared understanding with the BoJ” on the topic. Following this, Japanese short-end yields have climbed and the odds of a hike in September have increased to c. 50%, while October is over 90% implied for a hike.

Commodities

• Over the weekend, President Trump said the US had been fully prepared to launch a major military strike against Iran but agreed to pause the operation after requests from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, claiming that the outline of a deal had been reached involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and progress toward ending Iran’s nuclear programme, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. Reports indicated that US CENTCOM had prepared a large-scale two-week bombing campaign if diplomacy failed. However, Iranian officials have since rejected the suggestion that direct US-Iran talks are underway.
• Since then, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is negotiating only with Oman, with no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days, while an Iranian lawmaker said there are no discussions with Washington or negotiations on the nuclear issue. Talks with Oman are reportedly progressing constructively on a new framework for safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the exchange of maps over the past seven to eight days and plans for a temporary security corridor. Iranian officials have also continued consultations with Saudi and Pakistani counterparts, while warning the US against military action and stressing that Iranian forces remain on full alert. Meanwhile, two explosions were reported near commercial vessels off Oman’s Khasab without causing damage or casualties.
• WTI and Brent futures slumped some 6% at the open following Trump’s conditional cancellation of strikes on Iran. Prices have remained weak, with WTI Sep'26 sliding from Friday’s near-USD 87/bbl to open at USD 80.10/bbl this morning and then to a current Monday trough at USD 78.78/bbl. Brent Oct'26 hit a peak of USD 91.36/bbl on Friday, before opening today at USD 82.80/bbl, whilst the intraday low print currently resides at USD 81.55/bbl.
• Metals are mostly firmer as the slump in oil prices provides some reprieve for the space, although the USD has since clambered off lows and risen back above its 100 DMA (99.72). As such, spot gold resides towards the bottom end of a USD 4,047.35-4,079.19/oz range but above Friday’s USD 4,045.17/oz close. Spot silver oscillates in a USD 57.59/oz to USD 58.63/oz range at the time of writing, above Friday’s USD 57.63/oz close.
• 3M LME copper trades within a narrow 13,800.60- 13,903.00/t range, with gains capped as participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
• BoK reportedly plans to purchase domestically refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years due to geopolitical risks, Korea Economic Daily reported.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• Russia struck three ships carrying military goods in the Black Sea.
• Russian Transport Ministry said it is taking measures to ensure the safety of navigation and to protect ships in the Azov-Black Sea basin due to drone attacks, RIA reported.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We start August with the biggest story in macro markets at the moment being the Yen. It started with the suspected FX intervention on Thursday, which helped the yen to a +4.09% weekly gain against the dollar, its biggest in almost two years. That intervention was coordinated with the US, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying the yen seemed “very undervalued”, while on Friday we saw reporting that the NY Fed carried out a rate check on the yen against the euro. This coordinated intervention has now been confirmed. The Yen is another +0.6% stronger this morning but was +1.4% stronger earlier in the session after a spike higher that could have been more intervention. Remember in our 2026 Mapping the World’s Prices (link here) published in mid-July we highlighted how astonishingly cheap Japan was on a global basis. While no guarantee of when this would change, it felt like one of the most obvious medium-term trades in markets and still does. We’ll see how this story develops.

Meanwhile the latest around Iran is that hopes have risen over the weekend of a diplomatic off-ramp. President Trump said he had cancelled a planned US strike on Iran—described as potentially the largest American attack since World War II—following appeals from key Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, and announced that fresh US-Iran talks would begin today. At the same time, Iranian officials indicated that negotiations with Oman over arrangements relating to the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages. Markets have reacted positively, with Brent crude falling -5.2% this morning to $83.38/bbl. US Treasury yields are 3-5bps lower across the curve. 

S&P (+0.61%), Nasdaq (+0.96%) and Stoxx (+0.93%) futures have also rallied this morning although the ongoing tech volatility is holding back the KOSPI (-4.92%) and the Nikkei (-0.93%). The Hang Seng is flat and mainland Chinese markets are down a few tenths of a percent.

The week ahead will be dominated by the US labour market, with the JOLTS report tomorrow, the ADP employment survey on Wednesday, and building up to Friday’s July employment report. Beyond the US, investors will be watching Swiss inflation today, Swedish inflation on Thursday, German activity data throughout the week (culminating in trade and industrial production figures on Friday), Chinese PMI releases on Wednesday ahead of trade data on Friday, and Japanese wage data and BoJ communications on Wednesday before household spending figures on Friday. Meanwhile, earnings season remains in full swing.

Looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will centre on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labour market remains resilient. Our economists expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labour force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours. If realised, those outcomes would leave our economists’ payroll proxy for nominal income growth unchanged at 4.4% year-on-year.

Before Friday’s report, several labour market indicators will help shape expectations. The JOLTS report (tomorrow) and the ADP employment survey (Wednesday) will be closely watched, with our economists expecting ADP employment growth of +60k after +98k previously. Activity indicators will also feature prominently. The ISM manufacturing index (today) is expected to improve to 54.1 from 53.3, while the ISM services index (Wednesday) is forecast at 54.3, little changed from June’s 54.0. Productivity data (Thursday) should provide another read on underlying economic momentum, with our economists forecasting Q2 nonfarm productivity growth of +3.0% and unit labour costs rising by +0.5%.

The policy backdrop remains important. The Fed left rates unchanged last week, but three officials dissented in favour of a hike, highlighting continuing concerns about inflation. Investors will therefore pay close attention to remarks from Governor Cook (Wednesday), as well as speeches from Schmid (Tuesday), Musalem (Thursday) and Barkin (Friday), for any indication of how officials are interpreting the latest data. Our economists continue to expect two further 25bp rate increases this year, in September and December.
Outside the US, Europe’s focus will be split between inflation and activity data. Switzerland releases July CPI today, while Sweden follows with its July inflation report on Thursday. Germany will publish a series of key June indicators throughout the week, including retail sales (today), factory orders (Thursday), and trade and industrial production figures (Friday). Elsewhere, France releases Q2 wage data on Thursday, while euro area producer prices (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday) are also upcoming.

In Asia, after China’s private PMI surveys began with manufacturing data today, this continues with services on Wednesday, before attention turns to July trade figures and foreign reserves on Friday. In Japan, investors will monitor labour cash earnings (Wednesday) and household spending (Friday) for evidence on domestic demand and wage momentum. The Bank of Japan will also publish the minutes of its June meeting on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain another major theme. In the US, reports are due from Palantir (today), SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Toyota (tomorrow), before attention shifts to Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber (Wednesday). European highlights include Novo Nordisk and Siemens Energy (Wednesday), followed by Siemens and Rheinmetall (Thursday), while Japan’s reporting calendar includes SoftBank and Nintendo (Thursday).

Recapping last week now, and rates saw a sharp steepening in the aftermath of the latest central bank decisions, with long-dated yields reaching multi-year highs. The main trigger was the FOMC meeting as Chair Warsh offered little detail on the Fed’s reaction function to accompany the on hold decision. The 2yr Treasury yield fell -4.1bps (+4.5bps Friday) to 4.29% as fed funds futures dialed back pricing of rate hikes by year-end to 37bps (from 44bps the week before).  However, the 10yr yield rose +5.8bps (+6.2bps Friday) to 4.74%, while the 30yr yield rose +11.5bps (+5.9bps Friday) to a post-2007 high of 5.27%. This marked the sharpest weekly steepening of the 2s10s slope since the post-Liberation Day sell off last April.

In Europe, the rates moves were more modest as the ECB held rates steady but signalled that a September hike was probable. 2yr bund yields inched down -0.8bps (+5.7bps Friday) but 10yr bund yields rose +3.4bps following a +5.1bps sell-off on Friday to reach a post-2011 high of 3.20%. Meanwhile, 10yr gilts saw a milder weekly sell off (+1.8bps) as the steady BoE decision was accompanied by rhetoric that the bank wasn’t “edging towards a hike”. A September BoE hike is now 30% priced (down from 61% the week before), while ECB September hike pricing was little changed at near 90%.

Equities saw a solid gain in aggregate, with the S&P 500 advancing +1.05% (+0.70% Friday). But the standout theme was continued volatility around the AI trade, with the Philly semiconductor index ending the week -4.30% lower despite a +8.19% spike on Thursday. The Mag-7 (+4.16%) had a strong but varied week, with Microsoft (+21.75%) and Amazon (+17.00%) surging after their earnings, but Apple (-7.24%) and Meta (-6.47%) losing ground after theirs.

Internationally, the volatility was most extreme for Korea’s KOSPI index, with a +17.91% surge on Friday still leaving the index -1.42% lower on the week after it plunged across Tuesday-Wednesday. European equities outperformed as Brent crude fell by -6.88% to $90.12/bbl in the absence of new material escalation between the US and Iran. A solid Eurozone Q2 real GDP print (+0.4% qoq) also helped, sending the DAX (+2.11%), CAC (+1.64%) and FTSE 100 (+1.23%) to strong advances, though the STOXX 600 (+0.73%) was weighed down by a -8.24% decline for ASML.

Amid the stronger yen (+4.09%) and an on hold BoJ decision, the Nikkei climbed by +4.03% on Friday (-0.39% on the week), while 10yr JGBs (-1.1bps on the week to 2.81%) outperformed global peers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 08:02

$400 Billion Pharma Megadeal? Jefferies Calls Potential AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers Merger A "Head Scratcher"

The Financial Times reported overnight that AstraZeneca has explored acquiring Bristol Myers Squibb in a potential megadeal that would create one of the world's largest drugmakers, with a combined market capitalization of nearly $400 billion.

The report cited people familiar with the matter, while both pharmaceutical giants declined to comment. Some Wall Street desks, however, are struggling to see the strategic rationale behind such a combination.

FT reported:

The companies have held discussions about a tie-up in recent months, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks could yield a deal in the near future but may be delayed or fall apart, the people said.

Bristol, valued at about $133 billion, would expand AstraZeneca's US presence but faces looming patent expirations for Eliquis and Opdivo, which together generate roughly half its sales. AstraZeneca, worth about $264 billion, has increasingly shifted its focus toward the US while retaining its London headquarters and primary listing.

The tie-up of the two could create one of the world's biggest pharmaceutical groups, valued at nearly $400 billion, and comes after AstraZeneca completed a direct listing in New York in June.

Jefferies analysts called the potential deal a "head scratcher," while analysts at HSBC said there would be meaningful headwinds in tying up both pharma giants.

Michael Leuchten at Jefferies provided clients earlier today with a first take on the media report:

AZN for BMS - would be more than a head scratcher

The FT reported overnight that AZN and BMY have been in talks about a potential combination. No details beyond talks have been provided by the FT. Given the strength of AZ's growth and innovation profile, we are a bit perplexed by the news. Of course, financial accretion can look good, and maybe more cash generation would allow for more R&D. But if there is one company that doesn't need financial engineering, it's AZ, in our view.

Sources report potential merger discussions with BMY: The FT reported that AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb have held discussions in recent months about a potential merger that would create a combined company worth approximately $400 billion, making it one of the largest pharmaceutical companies ever and among the largest mergers in corporate history. Sources indicated discussions have taken place, but a deal is far from certain and could still be delayed or abandoned. Neither company has commented on the article.

"Why" is perhaps not yet clear to us: We suspect that most people will focus on the potential to establish an even bigger oncology powerhouse, with the resulting portfolio likely the broadest in the industry. However, beyond the regulatory hurdles, we would argue that pipeline assets could be sourced elsewhere, as AZN has been doing, particularly in China. In addition, Bristol's cardiovascular portfolio is likely to be seen as incremental to AZN's, though the reason to pursue it is not clear to us. One consideration could be a strategic desire to move closer to the US market, given AZ recently changed its US listing. Perhaps more is more, with additional cash to spend on R&D, as when AZ bought Alexion, but using what would be a lot of premium equity to acquire a low-P/E business would seem drastic to us.

Portfolio overlap could attract regulatory scrutiny: Antitrust is likely the biggest hurdle, in our view. Both companies have sizable oncology businesses, and any transaction would likely attract scrutiny from US regulators and potentially require divestitures. There is perhaps also a political dimension: AstraZeneca would effectively be a UK-based acquirer of one of America's large pharmaceutical companies at a time when US policymakers are focused on domestic manufacturing and strategic industries. While this could be a way for AZN to continue expanding its US footprint, it would likely need to be carefully navigated to reduce friction.

Accretion is easy enough to achieve, but that is rarely a good way to judge major strategic moves: It is worth noting that Bristol's earnings multiple, approximately 11 times 2027 earnings, is lower than AZN's multiple of about 15 times. Bristol faces several key losses of exclusivity for products such as Eliquis and Opdivo, resulting in revenue and profit forecasts showing little or no growth in the coming years.

Combining with AstraZeneca would provide Bristol with access to a faster-growing portfolio and pipeline, particularly in oncology and rare diseases, while AZN could benefit from the interim cash generation of Bristol's legacy assets. However, we do not quite understand how this would clearly benefit AZ shareholders, who would see their growth diluted. The biggest issue, in our view, is that the BMY portfolio would add approximately $30 billion in losses of exclusivity before AZN's patent expirations occur after 2030.

Based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, near-term earnings accretion could be in the double digits, subject to synergies and transaction structure. However, that accretion would diminish as BMY's earnings decline through 2031.

HSBC analyst Rajesh Kuma also provided clients with color:

The news: An FT article (2 August 2026) states that Astrazeneca is in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb "to combine…according to people familiar with the matter". The article further adds "The talks could yield a deal in the near future but may be delayed or fall apart, the people said". Neither company has commented on the report.

HSBC view – key issues: We are unclear on the basis of this news article. The reported "strategic rationale" for a deal is that it would improve AstraZeneca's US footprint in a material manner. Further, there could be synergies in combining the oncology and cardiovascular portfolios. The first challenge is likely to be around the antitrust issues, in oncology and, to a lesser extent, in cardiology. Both BMS and AstraZeneca are leading companies in the immuno-oncology space with competing assets and pipelines in the space. The combined scale, rebate wall and pipeline (which seems to be aligned with different next-generation mechanisms of action) could in theory be very compelling. Although the argument that Opdivo's patent cliff is imminent, and that AstraZeneca does not have a Vegf-bispecific in pipeline could be offered, the scrutiny would likely be intense.

Second, BMS faces meaningful LOE headwinds, while AstraZeneca has an attractive pipeline, which the market views as best-in-class in the space. Further, the company has a well established US presence with its manufacturing, sales force and commercial footprint. The arguments around AstraZeneca expanding its US presence via a deal seem to be an unlikely basis for a combination.

Third, AstraZeneca has been focused largely on bolt-on deals, which investors value as they typically come with manageable risk profiles. Large-platform acquisitions in the sector have rarely worked, tend to increase financial gearing and can be dilutive for equity holders. Investors are unlikely to be excited about any such deal.

In conclusion, we think that the basis for such deal a seems to be flimsy, both strategically and commercially. We rate AstraZeneca and BMS Hold, with unchanged TPs of 13,750p and USD60, respectively.

Bank of America analyst Jason Gerberry also provided initial thoughts on the merger report:

FT merger report light on details; initial thoughts

We provide our initial thoughts on tonight's Financial Times (FT) report that AstraZeneca (AZN; covered by Sachin Jain) has reportedly held talks exploring a potential combination with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), if correct, this could create a pharma duo with $400 billion combined market cap. The report is light on deal specifics but indicates talks have been ongoing for months and that an agreement could materialize soon, but delay or deal collapse remain explicitly cited scenarios.

The timing is notable given BMY's approaching several large patent losses of exclusivities and multiple important Phase 3 readouts expected over the next six to nine months; with BMY the smaller party, these pending pipeline events could influence valuation and raise questions around any risk-sharing mechanism.

The FT report does not provide a definitive deal structure or premium, but report notes any transaction would likely involve both cash and shares. Strategically, the most direct commercial overlap appears to be in marketed PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors, but Opdivo's late-2028 LOE limits the duration of that issue.

From a deal synergy (or FTC/regulatory approval) perspective, both companies have meaningful pipeline and/or marketed drugs across solid tumors, including ADCs, hematology, cardiovascular/renal disease, but we do not see major overlap in specific drug categories within those areas. Pharma merger deals involving bids above $100 billion are rare, with only a few attempted in the prior decade that failed to be consummated - highlighting various risks involved in deals of this size/cross-border.

The merger report reads highly uncertain and neither party has commented on the potential transaction. Thus we await more details. Our Buy on BMY remains around pipeline risk/reward.

Shares of AstraZeneca in London trading are down around 5%, while Bristol Myers Squibb in US premarket trading is up around 6%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 07:45

GameStop Shares Plunge As $1.4 Billion Debt-For-Equity Swap Threatens Dilution

GameStop shares fell in premarket trading after the company announced it had agreed to exchange about $1.4 billion of zero-coupon convertible notes for Class A shares, allowing the video game retailer to reduce long-term debt without using cash.

The press release stated that the transactions were privately negotiated and cover $400 million of notes due in 2030 and $1 billion due in 2032. After the cancellation, CEO Ryan Cohen's GameStop will have about $2.8 billion of convertible debt remaining, including $1.1 billion due in 2030 and $1.7 billion due in 2032.

The number of shares issued will be based on GameStop's average volume-weighted share price during a 35-session period beginning today, subject to a price floor. The exchange is expected to close around September 23.

GameStop warned:

The Company expects that some or all of the Existing Noteholders that participate in the Exchange may purchase or sell shares of Common Stock in open market transactions or enter into or unwind various derivative transactions with respect to Common Stock to hedge or unwind their investments in the Notes.

These activities could increase or decrease the market price of the Common Stock or the Notes, the effect of which may be material.

Shares fell 7.5% in premarket trading because the convertible note-for-equity swap will flood new shares into the market, with retail traders bearing the brunt of the dilution. As of Friday's close, the stock was up 8% year to date, with about 13.6% of the float sold short.

Meanwhile, CEO Ryan Cohen is still pursuing a takeover of eBay. The latest regulatory filing shows that GameStop owns 43.4 million shares of the e-commerce platform, representing a stake of about 9.8%. Cohen has told eBay's board chairman that he wants to acquire the company for $56 billion.

However ... 

Instead of eBay, GameStop ended up buying its own debt.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2026

. . .

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 07:30

Pentagon Plans AI Data Centers At Military Bases Across Multiple Branches

By Adam Gramegna of Military.com

At Dugway Proving Ground in Utah, on ground the Army's own contracting documents describe as previously used for grazing, a company owned by two of the largest investment firms in the world is preparing to build a data center.

That site sits about an hour's drive from the nearest community, on the installation where the U.S. military conducts its primary chemical and biological weapons testing. Three parcels there total roughly 3,466 acres. One of them, about 1,201 acres, is already spoken for.

A worker prepares a plot of land for an AI data center a retired power plant being refurbished to provide electricity for the facility rises in the distance Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in Independence, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

It is one of at least a dozen military installations the Army and the Department of the Air Force have opened to commercial data center developers over the past year and a half. Two of those deals are real; the rest are still proposals.

Land-for-Computing

In late March, the Army conditionally selected two companies to enter exclusive negotiations to build and operate commercial hyperscale data centers on Army land.

Carlyle, the global investment firm, was picked for roughly 1,384 acres at Fort Bliss, Texas. CyrusOne, a data center operator jointly held by funds managed by KKR and BlackRock, was picked for the parcel at Dugway. Each project is estimated to cost about $2 billion, according to the Financial Times.

The companies will be responsible for financing, building, operating, maintaining and eventually decommissioning the facilities, the Army said, on what it called "underutilized but non-excess Army land at no upfront cost to taxpayers." In exchange for the land, the service gets access to computing power.

It all runs through the Army's Enhanced Use Lease program, driven by a Trump executive order directing agencies to open non-excess federal land to data center development. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is handling lease negotiations and environmental review.

"AI is a strategic asset for the Army," Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said in the March announcement. "It is a force multiplier, supports future transformation and requirements, keeps the Army ahead of our adversaries, and generates resiliency across the force." Driscoll told the Wall Street Journal that the Fort Bliss facility would be "the first hyper-scale data center that the Pentagon has ever done."

United States Army Corps of Engineers headquarters in Norfolk, Virginia in 2016 (Wikimedia). Which Bases and How Close to Housing?

Only Fort Bliss and Dugway have been awarded so far, and even those remain conditional, pending negotiation. Beyond them, federal contracting documents show the Army considering data centers at Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Bragg, N.C.

The Department of the Air Force put out its own call in 2025 for private AI data center projects on unused land at Arnold Air Force Base, Tenn., Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, N.J., Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., and Robins Air Force Base, Ga.

More recently, it sought bidders for facilities at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Eielson Air Force Base and Clear Space Force Station in Alaska. Acreage varies enormously; for example, Fort Hood has 207 acres on offer. Fort Bliss has nearly seven times that.

Dugway is remote by design, although not every site is. Contracting documents show the Army weighing a parcel at Fort Hood within a half-mile of residential and commercial property, and several potential locations at Fort Bragg within one mile of civilian areas and a half-mile of civilian housing.

Proximity to the population is what has made data centers a heated topic in the civilian world. Nearly $156 billion in projects nationwide have been delayed or canceled after local opposition, according to Data Center Watch.

In Virginia, which holds the world's highest concentration of the facilities, a state-funded study found residents' monthly energy bills could rise by $14 to $37 by 2040.

Army Officials Say They're Ready

"So I think the difference between us, the Army, doing a data center, and say Meta or Google, is we're part of the communities that are there, and we are going to engage with them on a routine and regular basis to look for solutions that work for everyone, right?" Col. John Oliver, executive officer for Deputy Army Under Secretary Dave Fitzgerald, told Defense One. "Because, yes, we understand that there's been consternation with data centers."

Two requirements attached to these projects do not apply to commercial builds off base. Proposals must include net-zero water usage and a power plan that does not draw on the local electrical grid. Bidders were also required to describe plans for "local outreach and engagement" and to assess "any risks or opposition" to the project.

The Defense Department's own procurement documents, obtained by the trade publication Data Center Dynamics, rate the water risk for the El Paso area as "Extremely High." Data centers consume water to cool their servers. Fort Bliss is where the Army wants its flagship.

Army officials want the project to be a net contributor rather than a net drain. In the spring, Fitzgerald traveled to Fort Bliss for a listening session with the commander of the 1st Armored Division, community members, El Paso Water, El Paso Electric and Carlyle. One idea on the table is having the developer drill a new well to feed the city's desalination plant, offsetting what the data center uses.

"We are encouraging Carlyle to do that, so actually make it net-positive," Oliver told Defense One. "We don't know if that's an engineering solution that we can actually get to yet, but we're actively working toward that as a part of the process."

Darrell M. West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies data center development, said the approach is sound, and that communities which have accepted the facilities tend to be the ones told the full details in advance.

"People want to know up-front, you know, where the energy is coming from, how much water is being used, how much the overall cost is going to be, and what the noise levels are," West said.

Congress Not Settled

Rep. Cory Mills, a Florida Republican, secured a provision in the House version of the fiscal 2027 defense authorization bill. This bill bars the Defense Department from leasing land for data centers unless developers agree not to install equipment containing components made in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. The restriction covers certain printed circuit boards, advanced semiconductors and chipsets the department considers a security risk.

"Honored to pass this amendment to protect our military installations from Chinese components being used in data centers on our installations," Mills wrote on X.

The Army objected. The measure would create a "federal land penalty," a service official told Federal News Network, imposing rules on companies building on installations that would not apply to identical projects built anywhere else. "We want Congress to incentivize companies to build on secure federal land, rather than creating barriers that drive them away," the official said.

Rep. John Garamendi, a California Democrat, proposed requiring the Pentagon to evaluate a data center's energy and water consumption, noise and light pollution, and effects on security and supply chains before finalizing any deal. House Armed Services Republicans rejected it.

"We're not opposed to data centers," Garamendi said. "We just want to make sure that if we're going to put a data center on a federal facility, that federal facility is not going to be degraded by the data center."

His questions were installation questions. "Is there encroachment on training and operations and the physical and supply chain of security?" he asked.

Senate Armed Services Republicans defeated a separate Democratic amendment that would have blocked leasing until the Pentagon finalizes a data center strategy. House appropriators, meanwhile, adopted language acknowledging that data centers "place significant strain on energy and water resources and communities have resisted such projects."

Available Information

For anyone stationed at or living near one of these installations, several things are known for sure. Only two projects have been awarded, and both remain conditional. Fort Hood, Fort Bragg and the Air Force sites are solicitations, not commitments.

Initial operating capability at Fort Bliss is projected for fiscal 2027 and at Dugway for fiscal 2029. That is when the first capability comes online, not when a finished campus exists. Oliver has described the long-term vision as a campus with a commercial side, a classified military data side, and onsite power generation.

The Army Corps of Engineers is conducting the environmental review at both awarded sites. Developers must build independent power that does not tap the local grid and meet net-zero water usage. Excess power generated on base could potentially be sold back to civilian grids.

The Association of Defense Communities has scheduled further discussion of military data center development at its Installation Innovation Forum in October 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 07:20