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Futures Rebound, Oil Pares Gain After Iran Declares End To Military Operations

Futures Rebound, Oil Pares Gain After Iran Declares End To Military Operations

US stocks futures rebounded and oil pared much of its overnight gains, following a declaration from Iran that military operations against Israel ended after the biggest military escalation between Iran and Israel overnight. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.7% while those for the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.4%, with Mag 7 stocks trading mostly higher in premarket trading ahead of Apple's WWDC keynote later today, which may boost the Mag 7 group. Chipmakers that were the hardest hit in Friday’s selloff attracted dip buyers in premarket trading. Marvell Technology 7.9% while Micron advanced almost 4.2%. Nvidia led gains among the Magnificent Seven heavyweights. While European stocks rose, South Korea's KOSPI index fell by over 8% as chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung joined a tumble in AI stocks, the plunge prompted a 20 minutes trading halt at the start of the session. It is unclear if today’s pre-market moves are more of a deadcat bounce (given the moves in FICC mkts) or if Thurs / Fri represented the extent of the pullback and now everyone is stepping in to buy the dip, according to JPM. Treasuries fell, with the 10-year yield up one basis point to 4.54% as traders added to bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. The dollar dropped 0.2%.

Brent climbed as much as 5.4% after Israel retaliated against Iranian missile attacks, but the advance eased after the Fars news agency reported that the country’s central military command said the military operation against Israel has ended. Precious metals are under pressure but see a modest bid after the Iran news.

Bitcoin climbed 2.8% after falling below the $60,000 mark on Friday for the first time since Donald Trump won reelection in 2024. Strategy Inc. Chairman Michael Saylor hinted at further purchases. On the calendar, Apple's WWDC keynote is today, which can boost Mag7 or disappoint again should Siri fail to impress. Inflation prints are the other key releases to monitor.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +2%, Tesla +1.6%, Meta +0.7%, Amazon +1%, Apple +0.5%, Microsoft -0.07%, Alphabet -0.4%)

  • Energy stocks and fertilizer stocks are rising, while travel stocks are falling, as a fresh flare-up in Iran-Israel hostilities threatened the Middle East ceasefire and lifted oil prices.
  • Campbell’s (CPB) rises 1% after the food company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) gains 1.6% following obesity drug presentations at the American Diabetes Association conference.
  • Ingredion Inc. (INGR) slips about 1% after agreeing to buy Tate & Lyle Plc for $3.6 billion, in a move that marks the end of the UK company’s near-century on the London Stock Exchange.
  • Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) is up 25% after Roche agreed to pay the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company as much as $2.3 billion for rights to an experimental blood-cancer drug.
  • Marvell (MRVL) climbs 9% and Flex (FLEX) rises 4% as the companies are set to replace Pool Corp. and Campbell’s in the S&P 500 before the market open on June 22.
  • Wix.com (WIX) falls 15% after the web-platform said it expects an approximately $50m reduction in bookings in 2026 as a result of a new organizational realignment program as well as a more pronounced slowdown in the growth of its Partners business, beyond previous expectations.

In other corporate news, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said affluent travelers continue to spend on air travel despite a sharp rise in fares, supporting his confidence that demand for premium products can withstand higher prices.

Investors are starting the week grappling with a host of negatives: renewed fighting in the Middle East, inflation pressures that are bolstering the case for rate hikes and worries over whether the blistering artificial-intelligence rally has run too far. A flood of new shares from companies looking to fund their AI ambitions, including SpaceX’s offering that concludes this week, is also raising questions about whether there will be enough buyers to soak them all up.

“There are three key potential risks to stock markets at the moment — Hormuz remaining closed, inflation and rates rising faster than expected and investors taking profits in assets which have performed spectacularly well,” said Michael Bell at RBC Bluebay Asset Management. “Some hedges and diversification against all three risks probably make sense.”

While investors have been paid to buy all dips in post-COVID, a hotter CPI print likely hurts risk assets so caution may be the most prudent pathway. Indeed, BofA's Michael Hartnett warned that with June full of event risk, a 4%+ print in Wednesday's CPI could trigger continued market derisking.

As traders get ready for two weeks packed with event risk, they are likely to remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s release of US inflation data for May. The consumer price index is expected to jump by 4.2% from a year earlier - the highest rate in more than three years.

The European Central Bank is widely seen to raise rates Thursday for the first time since 2023. After that, attention will turn to Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as governor of the Federal Reserve next week. Interest-rate swaps indicated traders expect at least one quarter-point Fed hike by the December policy meeting. 

“I’d expect dip buyers to be patient, not quick,” said Hassan Raza, portfolio manager at CG Asset Management. “Nobody wants to be long ahead of a CPI print that confirms energy is bleeding into core.”

Morgan Stanley strategists led by Mike Wilson said the selloff in US stocks was “inevitable and ultimately healthy” if the rally is going to continue into the end of the year. His optimism was echoed by Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Scott Chronert, who raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 by 9.7% to 8,100 after a “big step up” in earnings expectations.

“Event risks haven’t broken the dip-buying instinct, and that’s unlikely to change this week in the absence of a fresh catalyst,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen. “US growth is tracking firm, and we’re coming off one of the strongest earnings seasons in recent years.”

European stocks fall for a second day as oil surged after Iran and Israel exchanged strikes overnight, raising doubts over the durability of a fragile ceasefire. The energy sector is the biggest outperformer, while construction shares are leading losses. Stoxx 600 falls 0.1%. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

  • European energy stocks outperform Monday as a fresh flare-up in Iran-Israel hostilities threatened the Middle East ceasefire and lifted Brent crude more than 5%
  • Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena gains as much as 12% to the highest since July 2022 after both Banco BPM and Intesa made separate offers to acquire the Italian lender
  • Tate & Lyle shares rise as much as 14% to 560p, trading below the offer price from Ingredion. The US company agreed to buy the British food ingredients supplier for 595p in cash per share
  • Remy Cointreau shares rise as much as 4.5% to their highest since February after UBS raised their recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell
  • Porsche shares rise as much as 3.5% after the German carmaker got an upgrade to buy from neutral at UBS, which said the firm’s turnaround plan was coming together and raised its price target to a Street high
  • Zealand Pharma shares drop as much as 27%, the most in more than three months, after analysts highlighted disappointing tolerability data for the experimental weight-loss drug survodutide with partner Boehringer Ingelheim
  • CTS Eventim shares slide as much as 6.3%, hitting a two month low, after the live events company was downgraded at BNP Paribas, leading to its only sell-equivalent rating and a Street-low price target
  • Kardex shares drop as much as 23%, the most since May 2006, after the Swiss intralogistics holding company issued a profit warning, citing higher costs and lower volumes in its Automated Products segment
  • Pharma Mar shares drop as much as 11%, the most in roughly a year, after Oddo BHF analysts say the timing has slipped for the Spanish company’s Zepzelca lung cancer drug in combination with atezolizumab

Asian stocks dropped, led by a selloff in South Korea, as investor concerns over an overheated artificial intelligence rally were compounded by expectations of Federal Reserve tightening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 4%, the biggest decline since March 9, with chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix among the biggest drags. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 8.3%, while Taiwan and Indonesia’s benchmarks also slid more than 3%. Regional tech stocks tracked losses in US peers after strong US jobs data raised bets on a Fed rate hike that could increase funding costs and slow the pace of AI spending. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly worried over concentration risks, with a few large AI-linked beneficiaries dominating market moves.  Monday’s rout extended far and wide. Key indexes also fell more than 1% in Hong Kong, mainland China, Singapore and Vietnam. Australia’s market was closed for a holiday.

In rates, Treasuries are still lower on the day, pared losses after Iran declared it halted military strikes against Israel. Oil remains higher amid flaring tensions in the Middle East, with Iran and Israel trading fire.  US yields remain 2bp-3bp cheaper across the curve with 2s10s spread steeper by around 1bp vs Friday’s close. 10-year is near 4.55% after topping at 4.58% during London morning. Ten-year Treasury yields are up by four basis points and gilts are underperforming in Europe at the short-end. German counterpart outperforms slightly while UK’s lags by 1bp. Treasury auction cycle starts Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes and includes $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. 

In commodities, after Brent initially clumbed by nearly 5% as Iran and Israel trade missile strikes, it has since sunk and erased almost all loses, trading at $95 last after Iran announced it would halt hostilities. Gold prices are lower, and Bitcoin steadies after briefly slipping below $60,000 last week.

Monday’s US session has few scheduled events, and Fed officials are in external communications blackout ahead of the June 17 policy announcement. US economic data calendar includes May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am

Market Snapshot

  • S&P Futures +0.7%
  • Nasdaq Futures +1.4%
  • Nikkei 225 -3.8%
  • Stoxx 600 unch
  • Gold 4324, +1%
  • 10Y yield 4.53 unch
  • WTI Crude +1.2%

Top Overnight News

  • Oil pared gains after Fars news agency said Iran will end its military operations against Israel. Earlier, Donald Trump said the two sides were discussing a ceasefire after trading missile strikes. BBG
  • The Houthis declared a ban on Israeli ships in the Red Sea, considering all enemy movements to be legitimate military targets. The move comes as the Iran war drags into a fourth month and hostilities flare across the region, threatening to derail a fragile truce. BBG
  • South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 8.3% on the AI pullback with trading earlier halted due to the pace of the slide. President Lee Jae Myung said the country will unveil an investment plan aimed at supporting growth outside the tech sector. BBG
  • Japan’s economy grew at a slightly slower pace than initially estimated in the first quarter but remained on a recovery track, keeping alive hopes that a rate hike is on the horizon. Real gross domestic product increased by an annualized 1.8% in the January-March period, compared with the preliminary estimate of 2.1% growth, revised government data showed Monday. WSJ
  • OpenAI is preparing the biggest overhaul of ChatGPT since its launch kicked off the AI boom, as the $850bn group hunts for new engines of growth ahead of a planned listing this year. The company intends to transform the chatbot into a “superapp” that combines coding tools and AI agents, adding products that executives believe will generate more revenue. FT
  • German industrial orders fell more than expected in April, following a ‌strong increase in March, when companies brought forward orders amid fears of price increases due to the war in Iran. Orders declined by 3.8% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, the national statistics ⁠office said on Monday. RTRS
  • A bipartisan US group will launch a discharge petition this week to prevent Trump from creating a weaponisation fund. The bill would permanently amend the Federal Judgment Fund Act to prevent any opportunity for abuse: Punchbowl.
  • Nvidia and SK Hynix signed a multi-year partnership to develop next-gen AI memory chips. BBG
  • Jensen Huang called a global tech stocks selloff that began last week a buying opportunity, saying the buildout of artificial intelligence has just begun. BBG
  • Trump said the Fed would be wrong to raise rates, pushing back on speculation fueled by the blowout May jobs report. BBG
  • The strength of the recent narrow-breadth Momentum rally is the dynamic generating the most widespread concern in conversations with equity investors. Sharp Momentum factor rallies with the equity market near highs have historically boded poorly for subsequent S&P 500 returns, with comparable previous examples including late 1999 and late 2021: Goldman  

Iran War

  • Israel conducted airstrikes on a couple of apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiya district on Sunday, in what the military described as targeting a Hezbollah command centre.
  • Iran launched four waves of strikes against Israel on Sunday evening in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, which it stated ‘crossed all red lines’, while it threatened devastating blows if Israel expands Lebanon operations. Iran signalled a halt to attacks if Israel refrains from strikes, but vowed stronger retaliation if Israel strikes back, and it closed its western airspace until further notice.
  • IRGC said that the Ramat David Airbase was hit by ballistic missiles and that future attacks are to target US-Israel regional assets, while Tehran Times noted reports of missiles being fired at a US airbase in Jordan.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu was reported to be holding security consultations following the latest developments, while the Israeli military said the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, although Iran claimed a successful strike on northern Israel.
  • US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this is happening, while he called for Iran to end the missile fire and return to talks. Trump also stated that he was not happy about Israel striking Beirut and that Israel’s attacks were not coordinated with the US. Furthermore, Trump said he would call Israeli PM Netanyahu to tell him not to attack Iran in response, and noted that they are close to a final deal, which he doesn’t want to blow up.
  • US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched towards the Strait of Hormuz. US military said that Iran had fired missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, while drones were also fired towards 4 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran Supreme Leader’s military adviser Rezaei said Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday serves as a warning to Israel to cease strikes on Beirut, while he warned of a further response to aggression.
  • US President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting."
  • US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots. Trump stated that Iran's strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations and he thinks the deal is going on, but we will see what happens, and he would consider a commando raid on Iran if a deal failed, according to FT.
  • US told Israel to hold off for a few days to allow space for a deal, with a joint action plan to proceed if talks fail. It was separately reported by Tasnim, citing Israel's Channel 12, that Israeli PM Netanyahu tried to object to US President Trump's request not to react to Iran during a phone call, but in the end accepted it.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Washington is responsible for the current situation because it is a party to the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire has been continuously and repeatedly violated by the opposing sides. Action is to be taken whenever deemed necessary to defend the country's interests. On the ceasefire agreement, the spokesperson said that ending the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement, and when this clause is violated, the diplomatic track is also affected. Furthermore, he said the message exchange is ongoing with the US and Pakistan's Interior Minister visited Tehran to push negotiations. Lastly, he said they are not talking about the issues of enriched uranium or enrichment at this stage.
  • Iran's IRGC said that by taking action against civilian targets and targeting oil industries, Israel has targeted a dangerous game which will encompass all energy targets in the region and consequences for the global economy belong to the US. Iran's IRGC further said that we are ready to carry out operations on all fronts, and our response has been planned based on various enemy scenarios.
  • An Iranian source said that "Iran is prepared for a long-term war... The coming days will show that the calculations of the Israelis and Americans are always wrong", Tasnim reported.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader senior adviser said on Sunday that Tehran threatened to block the Bab-al Mandab if Israel escalates its attack, according to CNN citing IRIB.
  • Yemen's Houthis announce a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for a missile attack in Israel and said banning navigation to the enemy is a preliminary step and the group is prepared for additional steps against any escalation.
  • Israeli projectile hit an Iranian petrochemical plant, with the Karun petrochemical plant damaged in Khuzestan province.
  • Israel's army expects the exchange of strikes with Iran to continue for several days, Al Hadath reported.
  • Israeli Minister Smotrich is expected to propose at the next Security Cabinet meeting that Israel should respond to every Iranian missile launched at Israel by striking 20-30 buildings in Beirut's Dehaya district, journalist Stein reported.
  • Israeli military said the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in western and central Iran.
  • Throughout Monday in Iran, there have been reports of loud explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah and Karaj, while explosions were reportedly heard in southern Lebanon. Additionally, there were some arab sources reporting explosions at the Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia, however involvement was denied by Iran.
  • Drone attack reported from Yemen towards Israeli targets, according to Tasnim.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were negative following the recent geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and last Friday's tech losses on Wall St, as money markets priced in a Fed rate hike this year following strong jobs data. Do note that Australian participants have been spared from the selling today due to a holiday closure. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open and briefly fell beneath the 64,000 level with intraday losses of over 3,000 points, amid higher oil prices and a downward revision to annualised GDP for Q1. KOSPI underperformed with the index triggering a circuit breaker early in the session after slumping by more than 8% as the tech sector was spooked after last Friday's selling stateside. However, the index is well off today's lows following efforts by NVIDIA's CEO Huang to talk up tech stocks and with announcements made regarding cooperation with South Korean tech firms. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were on the backfoot with weakness seen in tech and mining

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said long-term interest rates are determined by a number of factors, and the government is looking to conduct appropriate debt management.
  • China's CPCA said May passenger vehicle sales at 1.53mln units, -22.3% Y/Y; Tesla (TSLA) exported 38.7k China-made vehicles in May.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) have continued to slide following last week's selloff, with renewed geopolitical tensions over the weekend and a further Asia-Pac tech selloff weighing on sentiment. Over the weekend, Israel struck Lebanese targets despite US President Trump urging Israeli PM Netanyahu to refrain from strikes. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at Israel and has now resulted in back-and-forth fire between the two sides. European sectors highlight the negative sentiment. Energy (+1.0%) is the only sector printing decent gains, benefiting from the surge in WTI/Brent (c. +4.0%). Underperformance comes in Construction & Materials (-1.6%), followed by Retail (-1.0%) and Industrial Goods & Services (-0.9%).

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer announces new commitments to purchase specialist AI chips at a value of GBP 400mln, as part of a new strategy. Following this, AMD (AMD) plans to invest up to USD 2bln in the UK over a 5-year period for AI innovation and research.

FX

  • G10s are mixed against the Buck despite surging oil prices. Antipodeans lead, and CHF lags.
  • DXY is a touch firmer today with oil prices rallying after Iran and Israel exchange missile fire. In short, Israel struck Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, and Iran retaliated with both sides exchanging multiple missiles throughout the morning. USD upside today is capped ahead of the 100.00 mark in the Dollar Index, the last time this level was seen was March 2026. In addition to the crude bid, the Buck is being helped in continued Fed repricing after a strong US Jobs report Friday pushed market expectations of tightening from 16bps to a full 25bps hike by year-end. With the Fed in blackout, the docket is quiet today with just NY Fed SCE scheduled. Note, some mild pressure was seen in the index after President Trump posted "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting".
  • Rest of the FX space is indecisive. Antipodeans are mildly firmer against the Buck despite domestic newsflow light and Australian participants on holiday. JPY is a touch firmer in choppy trade as intervention fears loom around 160.00, while NOK was earlier helped by energy benchmarks, though now unchanged against both USD and SEK, as NOK/SEK tests 1.0000 to the downside.
  • EUR is a touch lower against the Buck as it stabilises after post-NFP weakness. EUR/USD currently supported by 1.1500, with the APAC low of 1.1508. The highlight of the week is Thursday’s ECB decision, where the governing council is widely expected to lift its key rate by 25bps. ING writes in its morning note that support in the 1.14/15 region has a chance of holding this summer. EUR/USD -0.1%, testing the aforementioned lows at the time of writing.

Fixed Income

  • Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the red this morning, dragged down by higher energy prices after Israel struck Lebanon with fresh strikes, which led to retaliation from the Iranians. Following the recent attacks, President Trump suggested that the announcement of a deal with Iran was set for this week, but now new fighting is happening. He also stated that he is not happy with Israel, adding that it was carried out without the US. The Iranian Foreign Minister thereafter doubted that claim, saying the US and Israel cannot be separated. On a positive note, the FM stated that message exchanges are ongoing with the US, through Pakistani mediators. Moreover, Trump posted earlier that "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting".
  • USTs are off by c. 5+ ticks and trade at the bottom end of a 108-25 to 109-02+ range; pressure which follows the aforementioned geopolitical developments. Also in the picture is a continued hawkish repricing at the Fed, following a solid NFP report last Friday. As it stands, markets assign a 50% chance of a hike in September, and fully priced in by Dec’26. Markets will look towards the US CPI/PPI reports due mid-week, whereby a hawkish report could see Fed officials push for removal of the easing bias at next week’s confab.
  • From a yield perspective, rates are rising across the curve with the shorter/belly of the curve leading. The US 10yr (+44bps) has taken a more decisive move above the 4.50% mark, last at 4.57%. This brings into play near-term highs from late-May at 4.63% and then the YTD high at 4.68%.
  • Bunds (-23 ticks) and Gilts (-43 ticks) follow the bearish action, for the same reasons mentioned above; UK paper mildly underperforms given its high reliance on external energy. Newsflow for the respective regions has been light this morning, but the UK has had an interesting update via PM Starmer, where he announced a new commitment to purchase specialist AI chips at a value of GBP 400mln. Perhaps an indication of the UK attempting to boost its attractiveness at a global stage, but unlikely to have any immediate impact on price action for now.

Commodities

  • Crude futures surge after renewed Middle East tensions. Israel was the instigator, hitting Lebanese targets over the weekend, despite US President Trump urging Israeli PM Netanyahu to refrain from strikes. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at Israel and the back-and-forth of strikes has continued into Monday morning. Israeli strikes have hit the Mahshahr petrochemical plant in SW Iran and have also struck military targets throughout the country. Yemen's Houthis, known to be aligned with Iran, announced that they are to stop Israel's maritime navigation in the Red Sea. Before this fresh wave of attacks, optimism for a deal seemed high, with US President Trump stating that he was supposed to announce a deal with Iran that would be signed this week. In a post on Truth Social this morning, he stated that "Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting". This spurred some mild pressure in the crude complex by c. USD 0.50/bbl.
  • WTI Jul'26 trades at the upper end of its USD 92.20-95.25/bbl range, but finding resistance at the 20-SMA (USD 95.36/bbl) while Brent Aug'26 briefly extended beyond the USD 98/bbl handle (USD 95.00-98.08/bbl).
  • Precious metals continue to selloff, with spot gold trading towards the mid-point of a USD 4268-4353/oz range while silver slips below USD 67/oz. This initial driver for the recent slide came following Friday's US jobs report, which came in stronger-than-expected and has further increased the likelihood of Fed hikes. The downside in Monday's trade comes amid a slightly firmer dollar following the renewed Middle Eastern strikes. Over the weekend, the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 19 straight months, adding 320k oz t in May.
  • 3M LME Copper trades on a firmer footing, despite the heightened tensions, as it nears USD 13.6k/t.
  • OPEC+ agreed to another modest symbolic output quota increase of 188k bpd for July.
  • ADNOC said to have issued the second tender in a week to sell crude from UAE, Reuters reported citing sources.
  • Saudi Arabia cuts July Asia crude OSP by USD 6/bbl with the premium lowered to USD 9.50/bbl vs Oman/Dubai.
  • India raised the prices of LPG for the second time since the beginning of the Iran war to help state retailers cut losses on discounted fuel sales.
  • PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to a 19th consecutive month with the purchase of 320k troy ounces in May.
  • USDA confirms second case of New World screwworm in Texas, says US food supply remains safe despite the detections. Canadian Food Inspection Agency also announced it will implement temporary import restrictions on livestock, including horses, from entering Canada from affected areas.

Tariffs

  • Chinese President Xi called for multilateral and inclusive economic globalisation, while urging countries to resist hegemonism and authoritarianism and any efforts to revive militarism.
  • European Council adopts regulation to establish a framework to protect the region's steel market from the negative trade-related impact of global overcapacity, as of the 30th of June.

Ukraine

  • Ukraine’s military said it struck a pipeline pumping station in Russia’s Volgograd region.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia deliberately struck a nuclear-fuel storage facility, which he described as an ’extremely vile’ attack.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky told UK PM Starmer that Ukraine needs more air defence missiles, while they also discussed Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
  • Latvia Army Spokesperson said at least one drone has entered Latvian airspace from Russia, but NATO air jets shot down the drone.

US Event Calendar

  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A further reminder of our latest World Outlook, “1999 meets 1990”, packed with all our latest forecasts. You can see it here. Just when you thought it was safe to ease into the summer, 1999 has crashed headlong into 1990 over the last few days: We had IPO fever to start, a blockbuster payrolls beat next, a sharp AI-led correction, and now renewed US-Iran-Israel strikes over the past 24 hours — a timely reminder that a deal has yet to materialise as we now hit 100 days since the first US strikes against Iran. And if that weren’t enough, the football World Cup kicks off on Thursday, just ahead of a more personal milestone on Friday as another candle is added to an increasingly crowded cake.
Given Friday’s outsized moves, we’re bringing some of our usual Monday morning wrap to the top this morning. A hawkish Fed repricing after the payrolls report triggered a sharp US equity sell-off on Friday with the S&P 500 falling -2.64% (2.59% on the week), its worst day of the year so far, snapping a run of nine consecutive weekly gains. Tech led the declines, not helped by Broadcom’s softer earnings earlier in the week. The NASDAQ dropped -4.18% on Friday (4.68% on the week), while the Philadelphia semiconductor index plunged -10.26% - its worst day since March 2020.

All of this comes as tensions in the Middle East are building again with renewed strikes between Iran and Israel, despite what should be the 61st day of a truce or ceasefire. Iran targeted Israel with a missile attack yesterday after an Israeli strike in Beirut, while Israel’s military has responded with strikes against targets in Iran overnight. The IRGC warned yesterday evening that its actions would mark "a full week of continuous strikes", but there are also signs that the sides are looking to avoid a full escalation, with Axios reporting Israel strikes were “relatively limited” in scope and Iranian state media denying that it launched a strike towards a US airbase in Saudi Arabia after a missile alert there. The de-escalatory tone appears particularly evident from the US side, with Trump reportedly urging Israel not to strike back earlier last night, telling Axios that "The Iranian strikes didn't hurt anybody. Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate.” This and the wider quotes from Mr Trump sound like a President who really doesn't want this war to escalate any further and is trying to find all ways to avoid it. Still, the events have further complicated the chances of an imminent deal. The key sticking points to a deal remain the release of Iran’s frozen assets, its stock of highly enriched uranium, developments in Lebanon, and how control of the Strait of Hormuz will be handled going forward.

Brent crude is trading +4.32% higher at $97.11/bbl this morning following the escalating Middle East tensions. And combined with Friday’s post-payroll US selloff, this has led Asian stock markets to mostly slump this morning even if US futures have ticked back up. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-5.85%) is leading the declines, plunging more than -8.0% at one stage and triggering a 20-minute trading halt. It's now down around -13% from its recent peak. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-3.78%) is also being driven by the tech sell-off. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-1.16%), the CSI (-1.65%), and the Shanghai Composite (-1.26%) are also lower.  S&P 500 (+0.06%) and NASDAQ (+0.38%) futures are edging higher after Friday’s rout. 10yr USTs are +4bps higher trading at 4.57% as we go to print.

So what a backdrop for the main economic event of the week, namely Wednesday’s May US CPI report. The timing is critical with the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, and Kevin Warsh's first as Chair, a week later. For a while now the case for hiking has looked notably stronger than the case for a cut and last Friday’s payrolls has hugely reinforced that. Non-farm payrolls rose by 172k, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations of 88k, with private payrolls of 120k also exceeding forecasts (89k). It left the 3 month average for payrolls at a 2 year high of +188k. In addition, net revisions to prior months were positive by around 93k, adding to the impression of underlying momentum. While a large share of the upside came from leisure and hospitality hiring and a sharp increase in local government employment, job gains were not narrowly concentrated. The three month diffusion index rose to 53.8, its highest level since March 2024, signalling a broadening in employment growth across sectors.

Against this backdrop, attention now shifts squarely to inflation. Our economists expect energy to play a key role in May’s CPI, with a sharp increase in petrol prices (around +6.8% seasonally adjusted) lifting headline inflation more than core. They forecast headline CPI to rise by around +0.55% month on month (after +0.6% in April), while core CPI is expected to increase by a still firm +0.22% (after +0.4%). On a year on year basis, headline CPI is projected to move back up to around 4.3%, from 3.8%, while core inflation is expected to edge higher to roughly 2.9%.

Beyond the aggregates, the composition of the CPI will be closely scrutinised. Our economists expect continued tariff related price pressures in apparel and ongoing firmness in certain information technology goods. Lagged wholesale price increases could also feed through into used car prices. On the services side, shelter inflation is likely to normalise following recent distortions, but markets will be watching carefully for any spillover from higher fuel costs into core services such as airfares, delivery services and other transport related components. Evidence of broader pass through would add to concerns about inflation persistence.

Thursday’s PPI release will be an important complement to the CPI, particularly as it informs the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure. Our economists expect PPI to rise by around +0.5% month on month, following a strong April print. Based on current CPI assumptions and the PPI categories that feed into PCE, they are ex ante tracking core PCE inflation of around +0.33% in May, which would push the year on year rate up to roughly 3.4%. Key PPI components to watch include healthcare services, domestic airfares and portfolio management fees, all of which have been contributing to underlying inflation momentum.

Beyond inflation, the US data calendar is lighter but still relevant. On Friday, the University of Michigan survey will be watched for signals on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Our economists forecast the headline sentiment index to improve modestly to 48.5 from 44.8, with particular attention on whether longer term inflation expectations continue to drift higher.

Outside the US, central banks and inflation data remain the main focus, though the flow of information is more compressed. In Canada, the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision on Wednesday with no change expected. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday, where our economists expect a 25bp rate hike (99.9% probability according to futures), lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, as policymakers continue to prioritise inflation control despite signs of softening growth. 

In the UK, April monthly GDP on Friday will be the key release, offering insight into whether growth regained traction early in the second quarter. In Germany, April factory orders (today), industrial production and trade (tomorrow) will give a read on manufacturing momentum and external demand. Inflation updates are also due for May in Denmark and Norway on Wednesday.

In Asia, the focus turns to China, with May trade data tomorrow followed by CPI and PPI on Wednesday. Our economists expect China’s gradual reflation to continue, with PPI rising to around 3.0% year on year from 2.8% and CPI edging up to roughly 1.4% from 1.2%. Trade is also expected to remain firm, with export growth around 15% year on year and import growth staying elevated near 26%. In Japan, the highlight is May PPI on Wednesday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the week ahead here. Futures are suggesting a 94% probability of a BoJ hike next week. Our economist is more hawkish than consensus and expects a hike per quarter over the next year. You can see more on this in the World Outlook. On the corporate side, earnings highlights include Oracle and Adobe.

Looking back at the rest of last week now given we covered a bit of it at the top this morning. Markets finally lost their footing given the lack of a US-Iran peace deal, negative headlines on AI and mounting speculation about a Fed rate hike.  

Starting with Friday’s big news, Fed rate hike speculation got extra momentum from the latest US jobs report. So that led markets to price in a growing probability of rate hikes this year, with markets now fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by December. And in turn, that led to a big surge in Treasury yields, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +14.3bps last week (+10.3bps Friday) to a one-year high of 4.15%, while the 10yr Treasury yield rose +9.4bps (+5.6bps Friday) to 4.53%.

The equity moves outside the US were more moderate although the US sell-off continued after other markets were closed. Over the week, the STOXX 600 was down -0.53% (-0.29% Friday), although Japan’s Nikkei was up +0.39% (-1.31% Friday).

Market sentiment also wasn’t helped by the absence of a US-Iran deal, with oil prices moving higher as investors grew more doubtful that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon. That meant Brent crude rose +1.13% last week to $93.09/bbl, using the August contract for consistency, despite a -2.04% drop on Friday amid the risk-off mood. Higher oil prices helped push up European rates, with 10yr bund yields up +10.1bps last week (+1.7bps Friday) to 3.04% as investors priced 69bps of rate hikes from the ECB by December (+16.1bps on the week).

Across other asset classes, credit saw a divergent picture on either side of the Atlantic. US spreads widened last week, with US IG up +1bps, and US HY up +8bps. But Euro credit spreads moved tighter, with Euro IG down -2bps, and Euro HY down -13bps. Meanwhile, the higher rates backdrop saw Bitcoin fall to its lowest level since October 2024 at $61,625, a full 50% below its peak last autumn. And gold fell to its lowest level YTD at $4,328/oz (-4.67% over the week).

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 08:34

Poll Finds Strong Support For Larger Families Despite Falling US Birth Rates

Poll Finds Strong Support For Larger Families Despite Falling US Birth Rates

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

Most respondents said having children is important to a fulfilling life, while citing faith, family values, and economic stability as key factors.

The question of the declining birth rate in the United States has been weighing on many, including economists and those in the religious sector.

As more Americans reach the age of qualification for Social Security, the question of how to meet that demand alone has caused some to question what the future holds if American birthrates continue their current downward trajectory.

The current American fertility rate is roughly 1.6 children per woman.

A poll of Epoch Times readers found most believe that children are important, and also that the nation should look for ways to support family growth.

Importance Of Family

With a national average of less than two children per woman, readers were asked how they feel about family size.

A large majority of those polled, 87 percent, believe that having children is important to having a fulfilling life.

To add to that, 71 percent are concerned about the declining birth rates in developed countries across the world, but 63 percent agree that the belief that future generations will be worse off discourages people from having children.

When asked about the ideal number of children for a family, 35 percent of respondents said three children, 33 percent said four or more children, and 31 percent said two children.

When readers were asked how many children they either have, or ideally would like to have, 35 percent of respondents said four or more children.

Another 29 percent selected two children, and 27 percent selected three. Five percent said they would ideally have no children, while 3 percent preferred one child.

Religion And Values

According to Epoch Times readers, religion and values play a huge role in the decision to grow a family.

A whopping 83 percent of readers believe that declining religious faith contributes to declining birth rates. Even more, 89 percent, think that the decline of traditional marriage contributes to declining birth rates.

However, outside factors are also thought to be a major consideration. Fifty-seven percent of those polled think that the lack of support for parenthood discourages people from having children.

When asked, 83 percent of readers agree that a sense of purpose and meaning in life encourages people to have children.

The same percentage believes that modern feminism has contributed to declining birth rates, and even more, 89 percent, think that a national decline in family values contributes to a corresponding decline in birth rates.

One reader said, "A return to traditional values in the home and in the educational system is what I believe we need."

Other Influences

Practical struggles are also a factor contributing to adults' unwillingness to grow their families.

Sixty-one percent of those polled believe that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children.

Currently, 56 percent of readers agree that housing costs discourage people from having children, and 61 percent believe that costs associated with childcare and education discourage people from having children.

In a related question, 78 percent of readers believe that career priorities play a role in discouraging people from having children.

However, almost three-quarters of those asked, 74 percent, also think that social media and digital entertainment reduce interest in the formation of families.

A reader commented that "Economic relief from the massive fraud, which has caused the tax rate to explode," could be one solution to the issue of the declining birth rates. "This allows people to take less money home."

Addressing The Challenge

Those who believe there is a problem with how many children Americans are having also offered suggestions on what would be the most effective way to encourage family growth.

The largest group of respondents, 46 percent, said they believe renewed religious and spiritual values would have the most impact on Americans' likelihood of having more children.

Another 16 percent think that a stronger sense of purpose and meaning in life would encourage family growth, and 13 percent think that economic security would move the needle.

A combined 13 percent of readers credited either greater support for parenthood, lower costs in raising children, and more affordable housing would be the most effective way to change people's minds.

When asked to write in what they believed is most important, many made comments supporting things like "safety for the future," "strong marriages," and more "value and support of motherhood" as possible cures for the issue.

One respondent pointed to a possible systemic problem, saying, "A society that is not wrapped up in itself [becomes] less me-oriented."

The Epoch Times conducted this reader survey on June 3-4, 2026, by email and social media, generating 1,277 responses.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 07:45

Can AI Save More Energy Than It Consumes?

Can AI Save More Energy Than It Consumes?

Authored by Haley Zaremba via Oilprice.com,

  • Biglaw firm Duane Morris argues the energy sector's greatest AI-related risk is not surging power demand but failing to adopt AI tools fast enough to remain competitive.

  • MIT research challenges industry claims that AI efficiency gains will offset its enormous energy consumption, while new data centers continue to be approved at record pace.

  • AI shows genuine promise in clean energy applications - from nuclear fusion modeling to EV battery recovery - but the AI investment boom is simultaneously diverting capital away from next-gen energy research.

The artificial intelligence boom has created unprecedented pressure and anxiety in the energy industry. The public and private sector alike are expending enormous amounts of effort trying to quantify the amount of electricity that will be needed to power data centers in the near future, and get ahead of the skyrocketing energy demands headed for our already outdated and beleaguered electric grids. But the answer to the energy monster that AI is unleashing could very well lie in the application of AI tools.

A new article published by Biglaw firm Duane Morris argues that the most prescient AI-related risk for the energy industry is not the one posed by the demands of the sector itself, but the risk of falling behind in AI integration and application. The firm argues that the energy sector has an obligation to consider the ways in which large language models can be an asset, concluding that "AI should not be viewed only through the lens of risk avoidance."

"The risks of AI remain real and must be governed thoughtfully," the Energy Intelligence article goes on to say. "But in a sector responsible for critical infrastructure, the greater long-term risk may not be using AI too aggressively - it may be failing to use it enough."

Indeed, proponents of AI adoption argue that although training and operating large language models eats up an enormous amount of energy, not to mention other finite resources such as water, AI will be instrumental in making a wide array of industries significantly more energy-efficient. In fact, through these widespread efficiencies, some experts say that AI has the potential to save more energy than it consumes overall.

However, critics say that these claims are overblown and the result of wishful thinking rather than rigorous modelling. A 2025 report from MIT challenges such claims, pointing out that touted efficiency gains have not yet come to fruition, and may not be forthcoming. And while numbers on AI's efficiency gains - and even the amount of energy that AI is currently using - are still lacking, new data centers are being greenlit at lightning speed.

"AI's integration into almost everything from customer service calls to algorithmic 'bosses' to warfare is fueling enormous demand," the Washington Post wrote in an article published last summer. "Despite dramatic efficiency improvements, pouring those gains back into bigger, hungrier models powered by fossil fuels will create the energy monster we imagine."

Moreover, it is just this fear of "being left behind" that's fuelling the AI boom, arguably even more than actual demand. There is question as to whether rapid AI integration into everything from our energy grids to our electric toothbrushes - no, really - is going to create a more sophisticated and energy-efficient world, or whether it's just a resource-intensive bid to stay relevant in a rapidly changing global economy.

Wherever you stand on the issue of AI integration, it's increasingly clear that AI has some extremely promising applications in next-gen clean energy technologies. Researchers are using large language models to conduct "needle in a haystack" type inquiries to find the best methods and materials to advance nuclear fusion modelling, for example. In the renewable energy sector, AI is being used to improve forecasting of energy supply and demand for greater grid stability. And AI could even soon be used to give new life to dead EV batteries.

The massive energy needs of AI are also pushing increasing and intensified research efforts into cutting edge clean energy technologies such as nuclear fusion, advanced geothermal, and space-based solar power. But Big Tech is running on natural gas while it powers research into these clean energy ambitions. And, overall, research into next-gen energy is suffering from the AI gold rush as investors redirect their attention.

AI's role in the energy sector is anything but simple. And it's true that avoiding AI integration entirely won't solve the problem. But if the energy sector is going to eschew risk aversion and lean into the AI boom as Duane Morris suggests, it needs to have a strong policy foundation and a much smarter AI strategy going forward.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 06:30

Oil Jumps After Israel Strikes Military Targets In Iran, Ignoring Trump Pleas Not To "Strike Back"

Oil Jumps After Israel Strikes Military Targets In Iran, Ignoring Trump Pleas Not To "Strike Back" Summary
  • Despite Trump's pleading to Netanyahu not to respond, Israel launched missiles at Iran striking military targets inside the country. 
  • Iran fires missiles on Israel, after IDF unleashed deadly airstrike on Beirut earlier Sunday.
  • Despite Trump saying on Sunday that he would tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike ​back, an Israeli official warned that "There will be a forceful response."
  • Sunday is day 100 since President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.
  • Ghalibaf warns after IDF escalation in Lebanon: US & Israeli bases, assets in region are 'legitimate targets'.
  • Talks stuck on unfreezing assets: "Twenty-four billion dollars is not much for America if he wants to reach an agreement with Iran," Iranian Gen. Mohsen Rezaei told CNN. "This is our own, not America's money."
  • Defying Washington, Iran has been collecting $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz (Fars).
//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes 7% · No 94%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  * 

Oil Spikes After Israel Strikes Military Targets Inside Iran, Ignoring Trump's Pleas

Ignoring Trump's pleas not to respond to Iran's earlier strike, the Israel Defense Force has confirmed that it has launched strikes in the last few minutes against military targets in Western and Central Iran.

According to unconfirmed reports, explosions were heard in at least 6 cities across Iran, including Kermanshah, Urmia, Tehran, Mehrabad, Tabriz, Isfahan.

Iran's decision is a slap in the face for Trump who earlier had communicated with Israel's Netanyahu, pleading the PM not to strike back.

The move, which will make Trump look even more powerless as he can't control either Iran or Israel, sent oil surging over $3 in late Sunday trading, with WTI last just around $94 and Brent below $97.

 

*  *  *

Trump Presses Israel To Hold Back

President Trump said on Sunday he would tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike ​back after Iran fired a salvo of missiles at Israeli targets in retaliation for an attack on the outskirts of Beirut, news outlet Axios reported. 

Iran has long said any peace deal with the U.S. would depend on a ‌ceasefire also holding in Lebanon, which Israel invaded in March in pursuit of Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters who fired rockets and drones across the border in solidarity with Tehran. But Israel earlier on Sunday launched strikes in the Beirut area for the first time since the U.S. announced a truce plan for Lebanon last week.

The Israeli military later said it had identified missiles launched from Iran and that its defense systems had intercepted them. Details on whether Israel suffered any damage were not yet available.

Trump, who was spending the weekend at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, had been briefed about the escalation between Iran ​and Israel, a U.S. official told Reuters. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

"It's certainly not going to help negotiations," Trump told Fox News after the Iranian missile launches. "What I would suggest to Iran: ​You've shot your missiles, that's enough, get back to the table and make a deal."

Asked about the earlier Israeli strike on Beirut, he said: "I'm not happy about it." Trump ⁠also told Axios he would call Netanyahu and press him not to retaliate.

Iran's chief peace negotiator, parliamentary speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, said U.S. bases and Israeli assets are legitimate targets because of hostile acts including the "violation of agreements over Lebanon." "They showed that they ​only understand the language of power," he wrote on X.

Ebrahim Rezaei, an influential hardline lawmaker who serves as spokesperson for the Iranian parliament's national security committee, posted on X that Iran would deliver a "decisive and painful response" to Sunday's Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

Iran ​has not targeted Israel directly since a ceasefire in the wider war in April, although Hezbollah has done so.

In turn, an Israeli official, responding to the apparent threat, told Reuters that Israel would retaliate against any attacks on its territory from Iran, and consider it "an opportunity to renew the campaign".

Washington and Tehran have shown little progress in reaching a deal to end the war that Trump launched in February with a campaign of air strikes alongside Israel against Iran. Trump has repeatedly threatened to restart the strikes unless there is an agreement soon.

"We're very close to a deal, or I'm ​going to blow the hell out of them," Trump told NBC News in an interview, broadcast to mark 100 days of the conflict. The comments were recorded on Friday and broadcast on Sunday as Trump visited his New Jersey golf course. Trump has said a similar version of the same news for much of the past month. 

Meanwhile, Netanyahu said the Israeli strikes on Sunday on Beirut's southern outskirts, a district known as Dahiyeh that has long been a Hezbollah stronghold, were ordered in response to Hezbollah firing toward Israel. The Israeli military earlier said it had intercepted two projectiles fired over the border. It issued an evacuation order for the southern Lebanese city of Tyre and surrounding areas ahead of possible strikes there.

Elsewhere in Beirut on Sunday, mourners ​held a military funeral for Brigadier General Wissam Sabra, a ​senior military officer killed in a strike on his ⁠vehicle in south Lebanon on Saturday.

The wider war has been stalemated since the U.S. and Israel paused their attacks on Iran in early April, with Tehran blocking most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the main transit route for Middle East oil. Washington has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports.

Though Washington and Tehran have said they are close to a preliminary agreement that ​would reopen the strait, they have repeatedly traded strikes, with escalations in recent days that have included attacks on nearby Arab states hosting U.S. bases.

Early on Saturday, U.S. forces struck Iranian coastal radar ​sites in Goruk and Qeshm Island, ⁠both in the strait, after shooting down drones launched by Iran that U.S. Central Command said posed a threat to maritime traffic. Two more Iranian attack drones that were threatening shipping in the strait were shot down, the U.S. military said late on Saturday.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they retaliated against U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait's army said it engaged seven ballistic missiles that passed over residential areas, resulting in material damage but no casualties.

Trump has said any agreement to end the war must prevent Iran from ⁠developing a nuclear ​weapon, and he is under pressure to deliver terms tougher than those agreed in 2015 under then-President Barack Obama in a deal Trump later repudiated. 

Tehran's ​demands include the lifting of U.S. and international sanctions, recognition of its sway over the strait and the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets. However, as reported earlier, Washington is weighing making Iranian assets available to Gulf neighbors to repair damage inflicted by Iran. Iran's Deputy Foreign ​Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Sunday any such diversion of Iranian assets would be illegal, and Tehran would take measures in response.

* * * 

Iran Launches Missiles On Israel In First Since April

Tehran makes good on its earlier threats, after the IDF conducted a deadly airstrike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut earlier Sunday. Day 100 of the war has seen a major renewal and escalation, again bringing Iran and Israel into a likely state of all-out war, per WSJ:

Iran fired missiles toward Israel on Sunday, after a deadly Israeli airstrike on Beirut hours earlier targeting the Tehran-backed militants Hezbollah, Israel’s military said.

It marks the first time Iran has targeted Israel during its ceasefire with the U.S. that went into force in early April.

The attack came after Tehran threatened to hit Israel and American bases in the Middle East in response to the airstrike on the Lebanese capital, the first time Israeli warplanes have targeted Beirut since a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced by the U.S. last week.

So is the ceasefire dead yet?

President Trump has continued to maintain adherence to it, and days ago suggested that a 'moderate' amount of firing doesn't necessarily mean a broken ceasefire.

Israel earlier confirmed an airstrike on a Hezbollah headquarters in the Dahieh district of Beirut. Iran last week warned again hitting Beirut, saying it would assure US and Israeli bases and assets in the region would come under new attack. The earlier warning is reviewed as follows: 

  • Iran's military said Israel had "crossed all red lines" in intensifying its attacks in southern Lebanon and targeting the south Beirut suburb of Dahieh.
  • "If it expands its attacks in that area, or responds to Iran's action, it will face more forceful blows, and devastating attacks will be launched" against Israel and its supporters, the military added.

Video of reported initial inbound projectile on Israel circulating...

US, Israeli Bases are 'Legitimate Targets': Iran Issues Fresh Threat

On Sunday Tehran ramped up its threats to renew ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israel and America's Gulf allies, describing that the Israeli military's ongoing deadly attacks on Lebanon could obliterate the extended ceasefire with the US

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced on X that the ongoing American naval blockade against the Islamic Republic, with Washington having given a green light to Israel for its attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon, turns both countries' bases and assets in the region into “legitimate targets.” The last days even saw a Lebanese general and other officers killed by IDF airstrike in south Lebanon.

"They neither abide by a ceasefire nor believe in negotiations," Ghalibaf wrote.

Below is the latest Bloomberg summary on where stalled negotiations stand... to be expected it cites "little progress":

"The US and Iran appear to be making little progress toward an interim deal to end the war Washington and Israel began 100 days ago, as fresh attacks pile pressure on a fragile ceasefire," Bloomberg writes, and continues:

  • The past week saw the worst flare-up in tensions since the truce started around April 8.
  • Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are bogged down over the fate of billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets and a parallel conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
  • US Central Command said early Sunday it downed two Iranian attack drones that threatened international maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway crucial to global energy exports that’s also been at the heart of discussions.
  • On Friday, six ballistic missiles fired at Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted and another failed to reach their intended target, hours after four unmanned craft headed to Hormuz were shot down, Central Command said. The US struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island, it added.
Talks Stuck on Unfreezing Iran's Assets

The U.S. and Iran remain stuck in preliminary talks to end the war, with the main obstacle being Tehran's demand for access to billions of dollars in frozen assets and the Trump administration's refusal to provide upfront cash or broader sanctions relief. Tehran is seeking about $12 billion upfront and $24 billion during a proposed 60-day negotiation window.

"Twenty-four billion dollars is not much for America if he wants to reach an agreement with Iran," Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, a senior adviser to Iran's top official, told CNN on Friday. "This is our own, not America's money."

For the Trump administration, releasing frozen funds for Tehran is optically displeasing because the president spent years blasting the Obama administration over the $1.7 billion Iran payment tied to the 2015 nuclear deal, and later criticized the Biden administration's move to allow Iran access to $6 billion in assets during a prisoner swap.

The U.S. government estimates that Tehran has $100 billion in inaccessible assets, mostly oil revenue trapped abroad, including funds in China, Qatar, Oman, and Iraq.

Iran FM Complains of 'Moving Goal Posts'

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei spoke with CNN's senior international correspondent Frederik Pleitgen about the ongoing negotiations with the U.S.

Baghaei stated, "The main problem of negotiating with this administration is that you have to face so many changing positions, moving the goal posts, different statements, contradictory remarks by different officials, so it makes the whole process very cumbersome."

He outlined one of the main problems is that "the Americans must understand that they have to recognize Iran's rights," including its right to peaceful nuclear enrichment under the international non-proliferation treaty.

"At the same time, when they are talking about our blocked assets, they're not going to give us any concession," he said. CNN reported earlier on Sunday that the US plans to allow Iranian assets to be used for rebuilding projects in Gulf countries impacted by the war, according to a source close to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Baghaei added that the US must "simply stop their sanctions" and "need to let Iranian assets be released and be available for the Iranians."

Iran Implements Toll System as US Balks

Beyond US-Iran talks, IRGC-linked Fars News reports that Iran has been collecting $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Fars said the payments are deposited into Iran's treasury under the budget law and directed toward designated spending areas. Some payments are reportedly settled not in cash but in USDT/Tether or through barter arrangements.

Top Overnight Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Conflict Flashpoints

  • US Central Command shot down two Iranian attack drones over the Strait of Hormuz early Sunday that threatened international maritime traffic
  • US forces intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones in the Persian Gulf late Friday and responded with attacks on radar sites in Iran
  • Six ballistic missiles fired by Iran at Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted, with a seventh not reaching its intended target
  • US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island early Saturday
  • Iran condemned US attack on its radar and coastal surveillance facilities as a clear violation of the April 8 ceasefire

Peace Negotiations Status

  • The US and Iran appear to be making little progress toward an interim deal to end the war 100 days after it began
  • Negotiations are bogged down over the fate of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets
  • Pakistan's interior minister was in Tehran on Sunday in a fresh bid to restart negotiations between Iran and the US
  • Iran's Baghaei said the US needs to let Iranian assets be released and must stop their sanctions
  • The Trump administration is seeking to steer Iranian assets toward helping US allies in the Persian Gulf rebuild from damage inflicted by Tehran

War Damage and Infrastructure

  • About 7,000 megawatts of Iran's power-generation capacity was damaged in the war, with some 2,500 megawatts restored to service so far
  • Despite 4,000 megawatts of damaged power plant capacity remaining offline, there are currently no plans to implement planned blackouts this summer
  • Kuwait's airspace was temporarily closed for two hours early Saturday as a precautionary measure due to Iranian missile and drone attacks

Economic Impact

  • Italy extended a fuel tax cut until July 3, cutting pump prices by €0.05 per liter for diesel while keeping it unchanged for unleaded fuel
  • India raised prices of domestic cooking gas for the second time since the Iran war started, with a 14.2-kilogram LPG cylinder increasing by 29 rupees
  • Container shipping spot rates from Asia to northern Europe rose 27% to $3,649 as of Friday, while rates to the US West Coast increased 20% to $3,933
  • Crude oil remains below $100 a barrel despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively blocked for over three months, defying forecasts for prices as high as $200

Previous US-Iran Wrap

Institutional Market commentary:

  • Goldman analyst Johann Cohen: Markets appeared to suffer from headline fatigue, alongside fading expectations of any near-term agreement between the US and Iran.
  • UBS analyst Zeynep Akkok: European equities are resilient, with SX5E trading off earlier lows and price action is largely unchanged into the weekend as markets pause after recent moves. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations, with US President Trump flagging talks are in their final stages, but the continued lack of tangible progress caps upside. The tone remains constructive, but increasingly conditional on delivery.
  • Goldman analyst Chris Hussey: But as we saw back in 2021, global supply chain shortages are plentiful. The prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still cutting off about 10% of the world's oil supply with a bigger impact on things like jet fuel, diesel, and aluminum.

Global Supply Chain:

Energy Market:

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 05:45

Goldman And UBS Preview Apple's WWDC: AI Siri Takes Center Stage

Goldman And UBS Preview Apple's WWDC: AI Siri Takes Center Stage

Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) begins this afternoon at 1 p.m. EST at Apple Park in Cupertino, Calif.

Ahead of WWDC, Goldman analysts led by Michael Ng provided clients with a preview of what to expect, including the unveiling of a long-delayed AI-enhanced Siri and operating system version "27" across iOS, macOS, watchOS, tvOS, and visionOS.

The new AI-enhanced Siri will include many delayed features from WWDC24, such as on-screen awareness, personal context, and deeper integration across apps, including Messages, Calendar, Photos, and Notes.

"We view these new features as key demand drivers for the iPhone and other products, which should help extend the strong revenue momentum realized to date (e.g., iPhone revenue +23% YoY in F1H26)," Ng wrote in the note.

Expected WWDC announcements:

AI-enhanced Siri launch timing & feature details. After announcing AI-enhanced Siri at WWDC in 2024 and seeing subsequent delays, we expect Apple to share updated details on AI Siri's launch timeline and capabilities.

  • Launch timing: During Apple's F2Q26 earnings call, the company stated it expects to launch personalized Siri this year (C2026). We expect Apple to confirm AI Siri should launch with iOS 27 in September 2026 alongside the premium iPhone 18 family launch.
  • AI Siri feature details: First, AI-enhanced Siri should have greater on-screen awareness (e.g., using information across iOS Apps including Messages, Calendar, Photos, Notes), which should allow it to provide more detailed, personalized answers to queries/prompts. Second, Apple likely will announce that users will have the ability to choose between various model providers to power AI features (Siri, Image Playground, Writing Tools), per Bloomberg. Third, Apple likely will announce a new standalone Siri app for users to interact in a chatbot-like manner.

Additional AI-driven & ancillary features. Aside from AI Siri, per Bloomberg, Apple likely will announce more sophisticated AI photo editing tools on the Photos App (besides Clean Up) that allow users to (a) generate content within a photo (Extend), (b) enhance photo aspects, and (c) adjust photo framing (Reframe). Apple likely will also announce improved Visual Intelligence capabilities through the Camera app, which will be able to do things like scanning nutrition labels (to sync with the Health app to log food intake) or scan business cards to create new contacts. Lastly, Apple is also expected to announce the ability to make tab groups in Safari and create custom Wallet passes from physical tickets.

Ng noted that Apple's price action tends to be positive heading into WWDC, but shares often trade lower during the event.

Shares have traded up 19% since late April.

Ng remains "Buy" rated on Apple with a 12-month target price of $340.

Separate from NG's note, UBS analyst David Vogt does not expect WWDC26 to be a positive catalyst for shares.

What Vogt expects at WWDC:

  • Google Gemini integration: Apple is expected to rebuild its internal models utilizing Gemini, using a combination of Google's and its own in-house model to power Siri features. Apple is reportedly paying around $1 bn annually for access to the 1.2T model, which will run on its Private Cloud Compute servers.
  • Link to third-party models: Currently offered with ChatGPT, users will be able to choose which model they use through a feature called "Extensions", a potential tailwind to App Store revenue.
  • Dedicated Siri app: The app will function similarly to other AI apps, including a history of prior conversations and an interface for text, voice, and attachments. Chat syncing across devices with iCloud: User conversations will sync across devices with iCloud, potentially increasing its usage.
  • Personalization and on-screen awareness: Siri is expected to possess the ability to understand personal data and analyze on-screen content. Users have long awaited these features since they were originally announced at WWDC24

WWDC26 is set to be Apple's first major test of AI Siri. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 05:45

Hegseth Warns Europe of 'Dangerous Ideologies'

Hegseth Warns Europe of 'Dangerous Ideologies'

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth warned on Saturday that the immigration crisis in Europe is causing the continent to be stormed by "dangerous ideologies" and asked if Europe is ready to address "that invasion."

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (C) speaks with U.S. WWII and D-Day Landing veterans at a memorial ceremony held as part of the 82nd anniversary of the World War II D-Day Allied landings in Normandy, north-western France, on June 6, 2026. Screenshot via The Epoch Times/X/Department of War

"Sadly, today, different European beaches are stormed by different dangerous ideologies. Beaches in Spain and Italy and Greece and Bulgaria. Boats and men arrive," Hegseth said during a speech in France commemorating the invasion of Normandy during World War II. "When will European capitals do something about that invasion? Or is it too late? I pray not, and I believe not."

June 6 marked the 82nd anniversary of D-Day, when about 133,000 troops from the United States, the British Commonwealth, and their allies landed on the beaches of Normandy. The casualties reached 10,300 for the Allies and by the end of the month, more than 850,000 men had landed.

Hegseth's comments were similar to comments Trump made to reporters in July 2025.

"On immigration, you better get your act together or you are not going to have Europe anymore," Trump told reporters while in Scotland. "But you are allowing it to happen to your countries. You have to stop this horrible invasion that is happening to Europe, many countries in Europe. ... This immigration is killing Europe."

Hegseth also commented Saturday about the sacrifice of U.S. troops on D-Day.

"The task was daunting ... An impossible mission - a suicidal mission - the mission of free men. ... The United States military spearheaded a great crusade to shatter the Nazi war machine and liberate a continent," he said.

Hegseth also stressed the importance of all the allied countries doing their share in military operations.

"Each nation pulled its weight; each nation bled. America will lead - and we must - but capable allies must be right there with us, shoulder to shoulder, in the breach, when it matters," Hegseth said.

Twenty nine World War II veterans attended the ceremony.

Art Rose, a 107-year-old veteran, was in attendance. He is a Navy veteran who served as an engineering officer at Omaha Beach during the D-Day invasion.

While in France, Hegseth met with Catherine Vautrin, the French Minister of the Armed Forces.

"We discussed a stronger Europe within a stronger NATO, support for Ukraine, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the situation in Lebanon and the Indo-Pacific," Vautrin posted on X after the meeting.

"At a time when the freedom of nations is under threat in Europe, France and the United States are remembering what has made our friendship strong for 250 years, on this day commemorating D-Day."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 05:00

Spain-Style Blackout Risk Rises As ERCOT Flags Boston-Sized Data Center Loads Tripping Offline

Spain-Style Blackout Risk Rises As ERCOT Flags Boston-Sized Data Center Loads Tripping Offline

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) gave the market another concrete reason to stop pretending the grid can absorb unlimited hyperscale load growth on top of an already strained generation mix. 

In a May 21st report, ERCOT disclosed that multiple clusters of proposed data centers and crypto facilities failed voltage ride-through testing. When subjected to simulated routine voltage disturbances, such as the kind caused by transmission faults, capacitor switching, or equipment issues, four groups of these large users simply disconnected. Models showed each group capable of removing more than 5,000 MW of demand in one event.

“Those abrupt drops in demand were equivalent to the electricity consumption of a large city such as Boston”

In a real-world fault on the Texas grid, those facilities would not ride through the sag and remain online like traditional industrial customers. Their protection systems would trip them offline to protect servers and mining rigs. 

The instantaneous loss of thousands of megawatts of demand creates an immediate generation surplus. Frequency rises sharply. Other units can trip on over-frequency protection or be forced into abnormal operation. In tight reserve conditions or during summer peak, the event does not stay localized. It becomes a system stress event.

ERCOT has already recorded at least 26 such disconnection events involving data centers or crypto operations since 2023. The operator is now reviewing roughly 20 GW of large-customer applications, including several gigawatts slated to energize before July. The board has elevated voltage ride-through performance to a top priority precisely because the scale of these new loads makes the old assumptions obsolete.

This is the demand-side mirror image of what happened in Spain on April 28, 2025. As we covered extensively at the time, the Iberian blackout was not a simple “too much solar” story. ENTSO-E’s final report pointed to gaps in voltage and reactive power control, differences in how generators responded to voltage swings, and rapid output reductions and disconnections that cascaded across the peninsula. 

Many renewable resources were operating in fixed power-factor modes that did not provide dynamic voltage support when the system needed it most. The result was fast voltage increases followed by widespread generator tripping. Natural gas units ultimately helped stabilize the system in the recovery phase, a point we noted when the “net-zero death” narrative was being walked back in real time.

U.S. officials have already flagged the risk of Spain-style events on this side of the Atlantic. Now ERCOT is stress-testing the other half of the equation: what happens when the new hyperscale loads themselves become the trip risk during otherwise manageable disturbances.

We have documented for years how Texas electricity demand could more than quadruple under data-center and crypto growth scenarios, how PJM is scrambling to find 15 GW of new supply for its own data-center alley, and how the largest U.S. grids are operating with minimal spare capacity while aging infrastructure and retiring dispatchable plants reduce headroom. The common thread is not ideology about any single fuel. 

It’s physics. 

Inverter-based resources and large blocks of sensitive electronic load both behave differently from the synchronous machines the grid was designed around. They offer less inherent inertia and different voltage and frequency response characteristics. When protection settings on either the generation or load side are not aligned with system needs, routine disturbances can escalate.

That is why the push for new nuclear, new gas-fired capacity with fast-start and flexible capability, and retention of existing dispatchable resources where they still make economic sense is not optional window dressing. It is the engineering requirement for keeping the lights on while AI infrastructure scales. 

Renewables can and will continue to grow, but they bring additional control challenges that the current grid architecture and market rules were never sized to handle at this speed and volume. 

The Spain event demonstrated the supply-side version. ERCOT’s latest tests are showing the demand-side version. Both point to the same conclusion: you cannot substitute megawatts of intermittent or highly sensitive capacity for the stabilizing attributes that nuclear, gas, and coal plants provide at scale.
 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 04:15

Google's New CAPTCHA Plans Will Create A Two-Tier Internet Only Accessible To Those With 'Approved' Devices

Google's New CAPTCHA Plans Will Create A Two-Tier Internet Only Accessible To Those With 'Approved' Devices

Authored by Dr R P via The Daily Sceptic,

Never mind Fancy Bear, or the NSO Group, the biggest threat to the open internet today is from the Big Tech corporations on which it has come to depend. For what else are we to conclude given that Google appears to be working on a system to lock large parts of the internet behind a new form of CAPTCHA (Completely Automated Public Turing test to tell Computers and Humans Apart) designed not to tell apart humans from bots, but instead to make an un-person of anyone who doesn't own an 'approved' Android or Apple device.

Google's reCAPTCHA service is used by a wide variety of websites, many of them independent of Google in every other regard, to limit incoming traffic or data entered into contact forms. It is intended to prevent automated software from accessing these resources and using them to send spam messages or flood websites with denial of service attacks. You have probably encountered it when told to identify all the bicycles in a grid of images.

Under the auspices of its Cloud Fraud Defence programme, Google is introducing a new form of CAPTCHA for which the way to 'prove' one is a human is to be in possession of a Google-approved device. Reclaim the Net's original reporting focused on the threat to deGoogled phones, meaning phones running Android-like operating systems which have Google's - often unwelcome - proprietary features removed, such as GrapheneOS or LineageOS.

However, just as the dull name of 'age verification' serves as a cloak beneath which schemes to end all truly personal computing can be smuggled, the danger here could be much broader than the technically focused headline implies. As the sources discussing this are relatively few, it is hard to ascertain exactly what has already been rolled out and what is still in the conceptual stages. But it appears that the new style of CAPTCHA threatens not just users with deGoogled phones but anyone without an 'approved' device.

Google's own documentation confirms the existence - as a "Preview" in limited use with alternative options presently existing - of CAPTCHAs which require an Apple or Android handset to pass them. But it describes this in a "Mobile Verification" context, which may imply a more limited use than reCAPTCHA in general. However, with such functionality possible, there is no reason that Google could not activate this, without alternative options, everywhere that its reCAPTCHA-branded prompts appear.

Knowing that locking out everyone except Android users would have even the most clueless politicians smelling a monopoly, Google has deigned to also allow Apple iOS users through, but their approval is nonetheless limited to devices where the full tech stack is under corporate control. Apple phones and tablets use a locked bootloader to trap users within a walled garden, where they are at Apple's mercy whenever an unwelcome new feature is introduced. Unless the Keep Android Open campaign succeeds, certified Android devices will soon be scarcely better, a condition of certification being that manufacturers must obstruct users from side-loading to install apps from outside Google's Play Store.

Because Apple and Android phones do not respect your freedom, Google chooses to trust them. That's an odd-sounding sentence, so let me explain.

On a Linux desktop, or a GrapheneOS phone, you, the user, have true control of your own property and can modify its operation to suit your own ends. And whilst Microsoft Windows has definitely not been respecting your freedom recently, Windows users still have control over what extra programs they install on a Windows system, for now. But on an Apple or Android device Google can be confident that it is precisely as enshittified as Big Tech intended it to be. It can be sure that any programs running on the device were programs which it approved within its own app stores, and that the device will never prioritise the needs of the user when they conflict with the desires of the corporate master.

Hardware attestation - where your device, via a cryptographic process, provides proof to a remote server that its hardware and software are genuine and unmodified - intensifies this imbalance even further. Not only can the device keep tabs on you, but it can also use a cryptographic key kept within a normally-inaccessible part of the system to sign each message it sends to the centralised servers and assure them that you have not tampered with it. The server can choose to deny access to any device not able to provide the signed confirmation. In Big Tech's dictionary, exerting true ownership over your own property is now dismissed as tampering, where anyone with the temerity to 'tamper' with the items they bought with their own hard-earned money is to be excluded from polite society.

Within modern certified Android devices, the Play Integrity API provides capabilities for hardware attestation. For Apple, the App Attest API performs the same function. The TPM 2.0 security chips which Microsoft decided to list as a hardware prerequisite for recent Windows versions provide the physical components which would be necessary if Microsoft seeks to introduce hardware attestation in future, its decision being made doubly suspicious by the fact that even the most security-focused Linux distributions do not make TPMs a requirement and that today's Windows can run without a TPM in practice. This concept of 'Trusted Computing' does comparatively little in terms of letting you trust that your computer remains secure, but is very helpful to let remote centralised servers trust that your computer will obey their diabolical DRM schemes.

Some banking apps already use hardware attestation, having bought into Google's argument that this improves security. Google's argument is laughable. Their hardware attestation approves legacy stock Android models which have known unpatched vulnerabilities - including ones which would allow malware to spy on user activity - or have received no updates for years; but it blocks fully up-to-date GrapheneOS devices. In treating hardware attestation as a proxy for security, banks and other app providers are locking out the more secure devices. And for all these security hoops they expect users to jump through, services still leak sensitive records by the billion from large-scale data breaches at their end.

Coming back to CAPTCHAs specifically, whilst AI crawlers and automated spambots are a genuine problem, using hardware attestation to combat them is like using a pneumatic jackhammer to open a wine bottle when a corkscrew is already at hand. Although today's machine learning can often identify all the squares with bicycles, there are still non-invasive methods to allow human users whilst excluding machine-generated traffic, often by adding a small cost in time or energy which is insignificant for a human user, but sums prohibitively when a spambot tries to perform thousands of actions simultaneously.

It is therefore hard to see any rationale for a hardware attestation CAPTCHA except to cement a duopoly of Apple and Android, and to break user anonymity. After-all, what good is a VPN or Tor if every interaction you make with a website at the other end is connected back to you via a CAPTCHA which queries unique, unchanging identifiers on your phone. Even if the site you visit never gets this information itself, Google would have the opportunity to process it.

Remember that this is not just a CAPTCHA wrapping around Google's own services. Online shops and banking websites are among users of reCAPTCHA. Access to essential services could easily be denied to anyone without an 'approved' device. Here is a route to debanking which doesn't even require your bank to turn on you: hardware attestation CAPTCHAs give Big Tech a unilateral veto power over anyone's online interactions. Google-branded CAPTCHAs are in such widespread use that they might as well qualify as infrastructure, and compromised infrastructure - unlike ill-conceived laws - isn't something from which people can unilaterally opt out.

Widespread use of hardware attested CAPTCHAs would relegate users of desktops and non-Google, non-Apple phones to second-class citizens, only able to browse the internet with an Apple or Android device to act as their chaperone. By making computing platforms which still respect user freedoms unable to browse without help from Big-Tech-approved smartphones, they could drive down demand for true general-purpose computers. Eventually all that would remain in production would be managed appliances, thin-client systems utterly dependent upon Big Tech subscriptions.

This is happening at the same time as general-purpose computing is under assault from multiple fronts including: the age-verification lobby, the targeting of developers, and sky-rocketing prices for RAM and storage due to AI companies buying up most of the global supply. Some might say that the adage "sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice" provides a possible explanation for these simultaneous threats, but their combined effect is still to take the power of true computing out of the hands of the people.

Even more terrifying is the technical possibility that hardware attestation could be used at the ISP level to obstruct freedom-respecting devices from ever connecting in the first place, leaving an internet where Big Gov and Big Tech can mandate anything without fearing competitors.

The push for hardware attestation is not new. Microsoft tried it in the early 2000s; it was rejected as "Treacherous Computing". Google tried to push Web Environment Integrity in 2023. It would have violated the principle that a user should have true control of his or her own computer by letting websites dictate that only users with certain system configurations, such as those optimised to maximally show adverts and make tracking as easy as possible, could access content. It was cancelled after community outcry.

This time Google is using 'salami tactics', the earliest hints of the new smartphone-dependent reCAPTCHA appearing online in Autumn 2025 to no fanfare. This has let it evade the attention of cyber-civil-libertarians such as David Davis or Ron Wyden. The wider free speech movement has remained unaware too, but the hopes of Sarah Rogers, US free-speech tsar, to preserve the "spirit of the internet... that made so many favourable contributions to our culture and economy... where you can go to be free" will be dashed if hardware attestation becomes widespread. And this time Google has the advantage that its 'solution' could ride to the rescue of Digital ID and age verification initiatives, themselves a lobbied-for 'solution' in search of a problem.

As a free-market libertarian, one of the few legitimate purposes I can recognise for national regulators is preventing the growth of monopolies so total that they can lock out alternatives. Alas, today's regulators seem uninterested in stopping this: Britain's 'OFCOMmunists' are busy trying to ban VPNs and supplying free bedding for Preston Byrne's hamster, while America's FCC has tangled itself up with an absurd attempt to ban the import of network routers - something for which the USA has no domestic production lines. The EU is even worse, aiding and abetting these plans by using hardware attestation in its own Digital Identity app. Far from preventing duopolistic abuses of the market, it is harnessing them. The EU's desire for tech stack sovereignty seems to stop where it would limit its ability to control and coerce its citizens.

The stupidity of allowing hardware attestation to spread is best exemplified by imagining what could befall the EU when - after having become societally dependent upon a Digital Identity app, itself dependent upon a Google-Apple hardware attestation layer - it subsequently does something new to offend Donald Trump. Whilst the resulting collapse would be justly deserved by the technocrats in power, the people on the ground would suffer severely.

A wise politician today would recognise the wisdom of preventing that by creating an internet which would be immune to political interference by virtue of being out of the control of Big Gov and Big Tech right down to the physical layer. He would recognise that sacrificing his own ability to manipulate that network would be more than compensated by the certainty that no geopolitical adversaries could manipulate it against him either. Today, the open-source community does not need anyone's permission to develop a parallel internet for a parallel society, though the backing of wise politicians would be welcomed. But the platforms on which the community must initially discuss the details and share source code and schematics are still within today's internet. Wait too long and hardware attestation could weld the escape hatch shut.

Stop Press: Google's documentation changed during the course of writing this article, adding a highlighted box describing the new CAPTCHA as a "Preview" with alternatives available. Google clearly knows the plans aren't popular. If enough public attention can be brought to bear against them, they may stay at the preview stage forever.

Dr R P completed a robotics PhD during the global over-reaction to Covid. He spends his time with one eye on an oscilloscope, one hand on a soldering iron and one ear waiting for the latest bad news. He has signed the Together Pledge and will never rely upon Apple, government or Google 'approved' devices.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/08/2026 - 03:30

Pentagon Officially Removes 180 Faiths From Military Religion List

Pentagon Officially Removes 180 Faiths From Military Religion List

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Department of War has formally removed 180 faiths from its official list of religious affiliation codes, leaving 31 remaining, according to a memo posted by Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell on June 5.

The Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on May 25, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The military had initially listed 211 faith and belief codes, but that number has been sharply reduced under the direction of War Secretary Pete Hegseth, according to a memo signed by Anthony Tata, under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness, dated May 20.

The memo states that the change was intended to "streamline the DoW [Department of War] collection of religious preferences selection for Service members to enhance the delivery of targeted religious support from the Chaplaincy."

"The new 'Religious Affiliation Codes' list will provide chaplains with clear, readily available information that will better enable them to anticipate the religious support needs of Service members and to provide religious support activities that align with Service members' personal faith and practices," the memo reads.

The updated list includes agnosticism, Buddhism, Hinduism, Islam, Judaism, Sikhism, and a range of Christian denominations such as Baptist, Catholic, Anglican, Methodist, Lutheran, and Seventh Day Adventist. Options of "no religion" or "other religion" are listed as well.

Parnell said that the cut in religious affiliation codes was not meant to make any judgment about the legitimacy of any faith or belief system, nor to serve as a list of "'officially approved' religions."

"Rather, it is designed to allow chaplains to quickly look at the religious composition of their units and determine how they structure resources to best provide for warfighters of all faith groups," he said in a post on X.

Parnell emphasized that the Pentagon remains committed to upholding service members' First Amendment rights and protecting their rights to the free exercise of religion.

"Chaplains play an instrumental role in providing spiritual care and facilitating the warfighters' ability to freely exercise their religion of choice, or no religion at all. With this new change, we believe we can provide the best data to support our chaplains in that effort," he said.

Hegseth first announced the planned reduction in March, saying that the previous system was "impractical" and that "many codes were never used at all." He noted that the vast majority of military personnel used only six of the religious affiliation codes.

"The previous system had ballooned to well over 200 faith codes," the Pentagon chief said in a video address posted on March 24.

"Our internal review committee recommended that going forward the department use 31 religious affiliation codes. This brings the codes in line with its original purpose - giving chaplains clear, usable information so they can minister the service members in a way that aligns with that service member's faith background and religious practice."

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 23:20

Platner Has Fundraising Surge After NYT Exposé, Which Is Bad News For Nervous Democrats

Platner Has Fundraising Surge After NYT Exposé, Which Is Bad News For Nervous Democrats

Graham Platner raised $200,000 in a single day on Friday, pulling in donations from more than 5,000 supporters, averaging $40 each. For a party trying to win back the Senate, it should be cause for celebration, but for Democrats trying to quietly push him toward the exit, it is a disaster.

The money came pouring in just hours after the New York Times published a damaging account based on interviews with several of Platner's former girlfriends. The timing made everything worse. The Times story days after Platner reportedly assured Democratic allies that nothing further would surface. The report described "unsettling" behavior, including an allegation from Lyndsey Fifield, a GOP operative, who claimed Platner bragged about having a Nazi tattoo and grabbed her by the shoulders. Platner denied any physical abuse and said he was unaware of the Nazi connection to the now-covered tattoo. The only thing he would concede to is being a bad boyfriend during a period when he was using alcohol to cope after returning from combat.

In addition to the fundraising, Platner's campaign released an internal poll from Public Policy Polling this week showing him with a 4-point lead over Collins. While that may seem like a positive development, analyst Nate Silver was skeptical, noting the results are "not super reassuring given that internal polls typically exaggerate their candidate's standing by 4 points or so." A campaign releasing its own polling in the middle of a scandal is usually a sign of pressure, not confidence.

Despite Platner’s fundraising boon, he has lost some support.

“I pulled my endorsement of Graham Platner because the information that has come to light at this point is inexcusable," liberal activist Cheyenne Hunt said on CNN.

"From comments on Reddit that excuse rape to now multiple allegations from a number of women that detail behaviors that are just grotesque, from demonstrably poor judgment to physical altercations, emotional abuse, psychological abuse, it's disqualifying for someone seeking to hold higher office, and we have to do what is right, even when it is politically and electorally inconvenient."

Meanwhile, Democrats in Washington are struggling to figure out how to handle Platner’s candidacy.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) repeatedly dodged questions about whether he supports Platner, recycling the phrase "We're going to beat Susan Collins and take back the Senate" each time reporters pressed him. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) declined to endorse Platner during an awkward CNN interview. 

The problem for Democrats is simple.

A candidate who can bank $200,000 in an afternoon, even amid allegations this serious, has little incentive to listen to nervous party leaders.

Platner told MSNBC's Chris Hayes on Thursday, hours after the Times story dropped, that he had not once considered stepping aside. "No, not once," he said, when Hayes asked whether he had thought about dropping out. Earlier in the same interview, Platner tried to contextualize the allegations by framing them as a byproduct of the trauma he brought home from war. "In this piece, there's a lot about my struggling, not being a good boyfriend, certainly self-medicating with alcohol, and I've been very upfront since the beginning of this campaign that that was a pretty dark period of my life after I came back from my combat service," he said.

Democrats had mapped out a straightforward path to flipping Maine, the most important state in their plan to win control of the U.S. Senate: The race was supposed to function as a referendum on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a longtime incumbent whose brand of moderate Republicanism has always made her a target. That strategy is now in tatters. "There is dramatically higher concern about losing Maine now across the caucus than there was before the stories broke," a senior Democratic Senate aide told Politico. "Everyone realizes that without Maine, the path to taking back the Senate is impossible." The aide added, "Everyone is apoplectic."

Democratic strategist Joel Payne diagnosed the problem with uncomfortable precision. "There's no way he's going to win a referendum on himself," Payne told The Hill. "He's got to make sure that when Maine voters go to the ballot, they ask, 'Am I really comfortable with Susan Collins for another six years?'" He acknowledged the campaign had failed to keep that frame intact. "They've lost the thread on that," Payne added.

None of this appears to be moving Platner. He rallied supporters in Bar Harbor ahead of Tuesday's primary, signaling that his base remains energized even as the party apparatus quietly panics around him.

That enthusiasm is exactly what makes this such a clean trap for Democrats. They cannot force him out. They cannot openly abandon him without handing Republicans a gift. And every day he stays in the race, the question Maine voters will answer in November shifts further away from Susan Collins and closer to Graham Platner. His donors just made sure he understands he does not need the party's permission to stay. And if more damaging information comes out, and there’s every reason to believe it will, the party may be stuck with a candidate who cannot win an election critical to their strategy for flipping the Senate.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 22:45

Korea "Black Monday": Kospi Halted For 20 Minutes After Crashing Almost 10%

Korea "Black Monday": Kospi Halted For 20 Minutes After Crashing Almost 10%

After the close on Friday, we said that on Monday, Korean stocks would be a "bundle of joy"...

... and that appears to be playing out in early Asian trading, as the Kospi index crashed 8.8% just after the open, taking the key index's decline from its recent peak to nearly 17%, poised to enter a technical correction and on pace for an outright bear market (20% drop from highs) should the local plunge protection team fail to stem the collapse.

Memory maker Samsung Electronics fell as much as 11% while peer SK Hynix Inc. slid 10%.

Since these two stocks account for virtually all the recent upside in Korean stocks, levered retail investors - who were buying everything foreign investors had to sell after a record stretch of 21 days of non-stop selling... 

... are having a very bad day. 

The sudden plunge triggered a circuit breaker, halting trading for 20 minutes.  The Korea Exchange held an emergency meeting Monday to assess rising volatility and discuss measures to ensure stable market operations.

What is perhaps most shocking about this move (aside from being notably more of an extension of Friday's losses in EWY in the US session - and not just catch down - is that it comes as SK Hynix and Nvidia announced a multi-year technology partnership to advance next-generation memory for the global AI factory buildout and accelerate semiconductor design and manufacturing.

Something that would typically trigger all kinds of circular panic bids as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says: “Together, we will co-develop the next generation of memory for AI factories and support the accelerating global expansion of AI infrastructure — from frontier model training to agentic and physical AI.”

Concerns over overheating in the AI rally combined with uncertainty in the macro environment have taken some steam out of global tech stocks over the past few sessions. Korea is seeing outsized losses after its world-beating gains, with the Kospi still up 77% since the start of the year.

As we pointed out most recently last Thursday just as the Kospi hit its all time high, foreign investors have been fleeing, selling more than $10 billion worth of Kospi shares on a net basis last week alone.

That’s put pressure on the won, with the currency touching its weakest level against the dollar since March 2009.   

We warned Friday that market breadth is the central worry. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, enjoying AI-driven chip demand, account for 54% of the Kospi’s market weight and roughly half of the gauge’s average daily turnover in May, according to Korea Exchange data. Nearly three-quarters of its gains this year have come from the two firms.

When the benchmark hit a record on Tuesday, only 2.6% of stocks reached 52‑week highs while 31% slid to 52‑week lows

Single‑stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix are adding to concerns.

The four most popular single-stock ETFs accounted for 21% of the total ETF turnover in South Korea in their first five sessions after launching May 27, exchange data show.

“The current market structure is vulnerable to a downturn as it’s dominated by the short gamma in the leveraged ETFs,” said Kenny Kim, chief executive officer at Meridian One Asset Management.

“The setup requires investors to chase rallies with heavy buying when the market rises, but forces them to dump shares when the market falls.”

Retail investors, once key drivers, are showing less willingness to commit fresh cash. Brokerage deposits fell to 121 trillion won ($79 billion) by May 22 from 137 trillion won on May 12, according to the Korea Financial Investment Association.

Meanwhile, margin balance hit a record 38 trillion won on May 29, up from 27.3 trillion won at end-2025, KFIA data show.

Rising margin loans alone may indicate heightened interest. But the increase, while investor deposits fall, may point to more leverage stress without fresh appetite to take on risk, according to Shawn Oh, an equity sales trader at NH Investment & Securities.

“The signal is clear: the cash buffer eroding while active leverage refuses to unwind,” he added.

The South Korean market faces risk of a “Black Monday” event with “currency instability, interest-rate repricing and profit taking in semiconductors all happening at the same time,” said Kim Doo-un, an analyst at Hana Securities.

The government on Sunday laid out a series of targeted measures to try and bolster the won, pledging firm action against speculative trading and other activities. The moves come as policymakers across Asia step up efforts to support their currencies amid rising energy costs and a stronger dollar stemming from the Iran war.

There is a silver lining for some as Korea's loss is crypto's gain...

...for now.

Finally there is one potentially 'existential' threat to the 'semis shortage' narrative that is circulating one some desks tonight.

Google has published a paper in which researchers claim to have redone the entire 'Transformer' process within the LLM framework, which uses caching instead of constantly compounding memory (which has been the source of screaming demand)...

Bottom line, if this becomes the norm, the multi-digit returns on Semi stocks (forecast on the back of the belief in seemingly endlessly higher prices and demand) are dead in the water.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 20:36

Sam Altman Pushes Plan For Backdoor Government Backstop By Handing Out Small Equity Stake To Americans

Sam Altman Pushes Plan For Backdoor Government Backstop By Handing Out Small Equity Stake To Americans

Back in November, amid mounting speculation that OpenAI's massive cash burn was massively unsustainable in light of the $1.4 trillion of funding commitments by the AI company, which in turn has sparked the biggest capex flood in modern history all on the hope that the company's promised payments will be made good, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar sparked a market selloff when amid an admission that OpenAI was “looking for an ecosystem of banks [and] private equity” to support its ambitious plans, she explicitly said that the US government would have to “backstop the guarantee that allows the financing to happen." 

In other words, as we explained at the time, when all the other sources of funds dried up - clearly a scenario the company is considering judging by her response - the company would have to come to the US taxpayer.

Friar further explained that "Federal loan guarantees would really drop the cost of the financing," enabling OpenAI and its investors to borrow more money at lower rates to meet the company's ambitious targets. Right... because there is nothing like a company with $14BN in revenue, $1 trillion in "valuation" and $1.4 trillion in commitments, than loading up to the gills with government-backstopped debt... if only Enron and Lehman had thought to do the same, both would still be around.

Anyway, after the market vividly demonstrated it was less than enthused by this proposal, sending shares in the AI sector sharply lower as it signaled OpenAI itself doubted it would have the financial wherewithal to meet its obligations, the company promptly shelved any discussion of a taxpayer bailout backstop Federal loan guarantee, and even prompted a rare tweet from Sam Altman to explain why Sarah didn't really mean the things she said. 

All that changed late last week, when Donald Trump caught much of the AI industry by surprise when he threw his weight behind a radical proposal for companies such as OpenAI to hand equity stakes to the American people.

Elements of the idea, which had started as a fringe argument on the progressive left, have recently drawn support from an unlikely cast of characters including Trump cabinet members, democratic socialists such as Bernie Sanders and Maga populists such as Steve Bannon.

But the concept suddenly gained more traction in the White House when - six months after OpenAI first flirted with the idea of a backstop - OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman visited Capitol Hill this week.

According to the FT, the plan proposed by his company, alongside others, would involve setting up a sovereign-wealth-style fund into which AI companies would contribute equity so the American public can share in the lossmaking sector’s soaring valuations. What was left unsaid is that while the "American public" would share in the soaring valuations, they would also share in the AI sector's continued losses and, more importantly, would be on the hook for the hundreds of billions in commitments if OpenAI is unable to fund them.

Translation: OpenAI - which reportedly is worth just shy of $1 trillion on pre-IPO paper, is once again seeking a government bailout, pardon, backstop. 

Such a plan would be distinct from the $9bn stake the Trump administration took in chipmaker Intel last year, as the public would own shares individually, rather than the US government directly owning equity, according to a person with knowledge of OpenAI’s plans.

In response to a question about equity stakes on Air Force One on Friday, Trump suggested “pieces [of AI companies] could be given to the American public” in an effort to quell the growing alarm around the rapid rollout of the technology. As if the American public can somehow sell its shares of OpenAI to offset soaring electricity prices. 

Industry sources told the FT that a voluntary contribution of small amounts of equity — led by OpenAI — was the most likely outcome. This would be used to build a fund that is distributed to Americans, similar to the scheme Alaska has for redistributing oil revenues.

Brad Gerstner, a large investor in Anthropic and OpenAI, said on Friday he was “encouraging founders/companies to donate shares for the direct benefit of all citizens” and that this could filter through to Americans via a previously established plan for the Trump administration to put $1,000 in an investment account for every child born between 2025 and 2028.

According to the FT, OpenAI - which has a philanthropic arm sitting on more than $200bn in largely undisbursed funds - has floated the idea of giving the government a stake in the company with administration officials in recent months. 

In a paper published in April, OpenAI proposed that policymakers and AI companies work together to seed a “Public Wealth Fund that provides every citizen - including those not invested in financial markets - with a stake in AI-driven economic growth”. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has shown interest in similar proposals, according to a person familiar with the matter.

However, some White House officials and OpenAI rivals, including Anthropic, were caught by surprise by Trump’s Friday announcement. Altman had no plans to be in Washington next week, according to a person close to the discussions, despite Trump announcing a White House meeting with AI bosses for the coming week.

A person close to Anthropic, which the US government has designated as a “supply-chain risk”, said the company was not having conversations with the administration about providing equity to the government, suggesting that Antrhopic's cash burn is now ostensibly far less than that of OpenAI. After all, who voluntarily cedes equity in their venture unless they want something in return. 

Which brings us to the next question: Why is this happening now?

The idea of public ownership of AI companies had been gaining traction on the progressive left for some weeks and was supercharged by an intervention from Sanders, the Vermont senator, in the past few days. Sanders proposed a one-off 50% tax raid on AI labs.

His proposal has won qualified support from some on the populist right, including Bannon, Trump’s former chief of staff, who has long railed against the power of AI companies. Strategists from the Democratic and Republican parties are simultaneously grappling with how to appease voters increasingly worried about the threat AI poses to jobs ahead of November’s elections, not to mention AI's relentless impact on higher electricity prices, which is rapidly becoming one of the top political topics into the midterms. 

OpenAI’s Altman was in Washington this week, where he met Sanders and other lawmakers from both political parties. He did not discuss these proposals with Trump this week, according to media reports.

Sam Altman exiting Bernie Sanders' office.

His company, valued at close to $1tn, is likely to go public soon, while Anthropic and Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which owns xAI, are also racing to the public markets. This prompted us to ask, tongue-in-cheek, if the OpenAI taxpayer bailout would come before the IPO, or after.

Is there any precedent?

The Trump administration has broken with economic orthodoxy by aggressively pursuing equity stakes in key sectors as part of an America First industrial strategy. Last year, it spent $9bn taking a 10 per cent stake in Intel and has invested billions of dollars in rare-earths and quantum computing start-ups in exchange for stock.

However, there is certainly no precedent whatsoever for the government taking a stake in lossmaking AI labs collectively worth trillions of dollars (based on laughable hockeystick projections which assume China will never be able to undercut prevailing pricing models). Additionally, the Intel equity was bought using funds already appropriated by the Biden-era Chips Act. Buying a stake in leading AI companies, rather than accepting a donation, would be expensive and probably require approval from Congress.

Will there be a backlash?

The initial response from pro-business Republicans and AI investors has been muted. In a post before Trump’s comments, billionaire Silicon Valley investor and White House adviser David Sacks warned against the government assuming “direct ownership and control” of AI companies - a post that was endorsed by Republican senator Ted Cruz.

If the Trump administration did go for equity stakes in leading labs, the backlash would be even more widespread, said Samuel Hammond, director of AI policy at the pro-tech Foundation for American Innovation, with protests from investors and companies that were not cut in on the deal.

“Even if taking partial ownership of frontier AI companies can make sense on paper, in practice it’s a recipe for political favouritism and corruption,” he added. 

Sacks, who was previously Trump’s AI tsar and was one of the most accelerationist voices in the administration, left his role this year. His lieutenant Sriram Krishnan announced on Saturday that he would be leaving the Trump administration at the end of this month.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 20:25

A "Black Mark" On Tim Cook's Resume: How Apple Missed The AI Revolution

A "Black Mark" On Tim Cook's Resume: How Apple Missed The AI Revolution

Apple's AI problems didn't become impossible to ignore because competitors released better chatbots. They became impossible to ignore when Apple itself realized it had fallen behind, according to a new feature by Bloomberg. 

By early 2025, senior leaders inside the company were holding emergency-level discussions about the state of Apple's AI efforts. What was supposed to be a major leap forward—Apple Intelligence and a next-generation Siri—had instead exposed deeper weaknesses. While Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and Anthropic were rapidly improving their models, Apple was struggling to deliver features it had already announced.

Bloomberg writes that the issue wasn't simply that Siri needed work. Executives increasingly believed Apple had underestimated the importance of generative AI altogether. The company had spent years assuming its traditional strengths—hardware, privacy, and tightly integrated software—would be enough. By the time ChatGPT reshaped expectations for consumer AI, Apple had no competitive answer.

Internally, confidence in the existing AI organization had eroded. Leaders concluded that the company's problems were structural as much as technical. Decision-making was fragmented, ownership was unclear, and AI lacked the urgency that surrounded other major Apple initiatives. What had once been viewed as a side technology suddenly looked like the foundation of the industry's future.

That realization triggered a leadership shake-up. Mike Rockwell, best known for leading Vision Pro, emerged as one of the strongest advocates for a more aggressive AI strategy. He had long argued that Apple was not taking the technology seriously enough. When the company's AI shortcomings became impossible to ignore, he was brought in to help rescue Siri and reset the effort.

The shift also forced a change in Tim Cook's approach. Historically, Cook delegated product strategy to his lieutenants, stepping in mainly for reviews and major decisions. AI became an exception. After the disappointing rollout of Apple Intelligence, Cook reportedly became far more involved, pushing executives to move faster and treating AI as a top corporate priority rather than another software feature.

Bloomberg even called Apple Intelligence 1.0 a "black mark" on the resume of Tim Cook. 

Perhaps the clearest sign of Apple's miscalculation is how dramatically its position has changed. The company initially downplayed the importance of chatbot-style assistants and generative AI products. Now it is preparing to launch a more conversational Siri and AI experiences that look much closer to what competitors have already been offering for years. Apple once argued that many of these products weren't necessary; now it is racing to build them.

The consequences extend beyond software. Several future hardware projects have reportedly been delayed because Apple's AI capabilities weren't ready. Devices that depended on intelligent assistants, computer vision, or advanced AI interactions could not move forward without the underlying technology.

What makes the situation unusual is that Apple rarely finds itself reacting to industry trends rather than defining them. The company built its reputation by anticipating shifts in computing before everyone else. With generative AI, it appears to have done the opposite. Instead of leading the transition, Apple spent years underestimating it and is now trying to catch up.

The real story isn't the launch of a new Siri. It's that Apple spent decades shaping the future of consumer technology, only to discover that the next major platform shift had started without it.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 19:15

Trump Admin Announces $850MM To Modernize US Coal Capacity, Build 2 New Plants

Trump Admin Announces $850MM To Modernize US Coal Capacity, Build 2 New Plants

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive

The Trump administration approved 76 coal-related permits in more than a year of efforts to revive the flagging fuel and execute an agenda of “energy dominance.” His latest attempt includes tapping Defense Production Act funding to expand the industry.

“Last year we prevented 17 GW of coal-powered electricity from going offline. That’s enough power for about 13 million homes, and at a very low price. It’s the lowest price,” Trump said of coal resources.

But critics say the opposite is true. “This move, along with the President blocking the retirement of old coal plants that are too costly to operate, is making most Americans poorer,” Jenkins said. “This is a total misuse of the Defense Production Act, a giant giftwrapped payout to subsidize and prop up a flailing industry that can no longer compete in the free market.”

The coal funding is “another example of Trump ignoring the affordability crisis,” Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s energy program, said in a statement. “Abusing emergency authorities to justify subsidies for coal is a waste of taxpayer dollars and a clear giveaway to an absurdly outdated, expensive and dirty fossil fuel.”

DOE said it plans to use up to $425 million in Defense Production Act Title III funds to support a dozen coal-plant projects and $75 million for the West Gateway Terminal Project, to operate a rail-served marine export terminal. The coal projects include:

  • $19 million for Arizona Electric Power Cooperative to modernize and extend the operating life the Apache Generating Station near Cochise, Arizona;
  • $33 million for Duke Energy Kentucky to boost generating capacity at its East Bend Station in Boone County, Kentucky;
  • $22.5 million for Oklahoma Gas and Electric’s Sooner DCS Modernization Project near Red Rock, Oklahoma, to modernize the facility’s distributed control system to maintain reliability and improve efficiency; and,
  • $46.3 million for Tennessee Valley Authority to revitalize its Cumberland Fossil Plant in Stewart County, Tennessee, to meet regional demands for dispatchable power.

The West Gateway Terminal Project “will support continued growth in U.S. coal exports, improve supply chain resilience, and strengthen energy partnerships with allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region,” DOE Under Secretary of Energy Kyle Haustveit said in a statement.

In a separate announcement, DOE said four projects will receive up to $350 million under the agency’s “Restoring Reliability: Coal Recommissioning and Modernization” initiative, to add or preserve roughly 3.6 GW of coal-fired capacity.

Apache Generating Station near Cochise, Arizona;

Along with almost 3 GW of new capacity split between Alaska and West Virginia, DOE announced funding for a project in Guayama, Puerto Rico, to retrofit and modernize an existing 510-MW coal-fired plant, and another project in Cumberland, Maryland, to recommission a 205-MW facility that ceased operations in 2024.

The Anchorage plant will have 1.25 GW of new coal capacity and the West Virginia Energy Campus project will offer 1.6 GW, according to a fact sheet from DOE. They would be the first new U.S. plants to come online since 2013, Trump said.

Also Thursday, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright issued an emergency order directing the Orlando Utilities Commission to ensure that Unit 1 at the coal-fired Stanton Energy Center near Orlando, Florida, remains available to operate. The unit was slated to enter a premature extended cold shutdown this month. The order is effective through Sept. 1. 

“Americans are upset about high electricity prices,” Wright said at the White House event. “Blame closing existing, reliable, secure plants, and replacing them with subsidized, unreliable plants — a gauranteed way to drive electricity prices up.”

But critics say coal plants are expensive to operate and the administration’s efforts are driving U.S. power bills higher. In March, the Sierra Club published analysis showing the Trump administration’s emergency orders to keep six retiring fossil-fueled power plants online have cost ratepayers more than $230 million.

More emergency orders have been issued since the Sierra Club analysis. Coal supporters, however, say the resources are essential and Trump’s investments will help maintain power grid reliability.

“Coal is a critical part of America’s energy security,” America’s Power President and CEO Michelle Bloodworth said in a statement. The group represents the U.S. coal sector.

“The United States has approximately 400 years of domestic coal reserves, making it one of the most fuel-secure energy sources available,” Bloodworth said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 18:40

A Lot More Than Just Rates Moving Markets

A Lot More Than Just Rates Moving Markets

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

The plan this weekend was to write about the AI Revolution. It would have dovetailed well with recent pieces Buggy Whips and Horses and Being Forced to Understand UBI. We discussed this, Iran, and much more on Bloomberg TV (1:43:30 mark), where I did bring out the red rocket ship tie, in honor of the SpaceX IPO.

But it is difficult to stick to the plan when the Nasdaq 100 drops almost 5% in a day and the Philly Semiconductor Index (a driving force of the big rally since the initial Iran attack sell-off) dropped over 10%! 10% in a single day for the most important subsector (of late) is a big deal!

As Mike Tyson famously said, “we all have a plan until we get punched in the face” and I’m not sure which would have been worse, a punch in the face from Tyson or 5% down on the Nasdaq 100? At least we can recover from market movements, not sure I could recover from a Tyson punch.

Rates – A Part of the Story

The jobs data came in hot. I would say, yet again, but as we published in our NFP Instant Reaction, there were fewer inconsistencies in this report. It doesn’t quite settle the Jobs – Data vs Vibes question, but it was a step in that direction.

The market is now pricing in one hike in 2026, as opposed to a 69% chance at the start of the week (though that should not have derailed stocks the way they were derailed).

10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.53% from 4.43% at the end of last week. Hardly warranting such a large sell-off in equities. The 10-year only moved 3 bps higher from Wednesday’s close to Friday’s close – kind of noise in the grand scheme of things. It was 4.66% on May 19th but the Nasdaq 100 was a touch lower than today.

I continue to think we see a steady grind higher in yields:

  • Price increases are being passed on to the consumer, and in the vast majority of industries, the consumer seems willing to pay those prices.
  • I continue to focus on the longer-dated oil futures contracts. My “go-to” choice has been the January 2027 WTI contract – it finished the week marginally higher ($78.22 vs $77.14) on increased concerns about the lack of a deal with Iran. My pain point is that higher for longer is baked into oil prices, but not necessarily bond prices. This will feed into diesel costs, amongst other things, that will feed into more potential price pressures in the economy. As we discussed briefly, as of May 29th (last reporting date) the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was almost back to the 2023 lows. How much more can be released? Yes, the world is figuring out ways to counter the supply shock, but the tool of releasing reserves may be nearing an end.
  • Spending on military is increasing globally. There are also spending pressures on many countries to offset the affordability issue, which is global in nature.
    • Iran isn’t the only country in the Middle East selling less oil. While Iran bears the brunt of the pain, the entire region is selling less. For countries where much of the population lives on government handouts from their petroleum profits, that creates the need to borrow. So, some traditionally large buyers of U.S. Treasuries may be busy dealing with their own funding needs.
  • Stablecoins to the Rescue? One interesting element to the admin’s strategy was to use stablecoins in particular as a backdoor way for foreigners to buy T-bills. With the Clarity Act struggling to get turned into law, and Bitcoin back to its lows of the year (more on that later), that doesn’t seem like it will help much in the near-term.

I don’t like the backdrop for bond yields here. It is a global issue, but the transition from Treasuries being the “gold standard” to a “generic sovereign bond” to many purchasers impacts Treasuries a little more.

Fighting Parabolic Moves is Crazy! (until it isn’t)

You can fight parabolic moves all you want, but normally you go broke by the third or fourth time you call the market crazy. Once a parabolic move cracks there may be opportunities.

Gold in the past year is a pretty good example. The steady churn higher. One decent pullback, that quickly turned back into a grind higher, followed by a “final” parabolic move higher. It never reclaimed that level and has been grinding lower.

Everyone seems to be asking, is this the fake pullback, like we saw with gold in 2025, or the end of the parabolic run? SOXX, an ETF tracking this index, had a small outflow on Friday, in terms of share count, but is close to its share count high. SOXL, a 3x ETF, had inflows, but from a relatively low base. I have found the flows of these two “sibling” funds to be curious over the past few weeks, and that latest flow data doesn’t help. Maybe the best explanation is some retail holders were getting nervous and selling the 3x leveraged ETF to buy unleveraged versions and shifted some money back on the big drop?

Not sure if this parabolic move is over, but it is interesting to think about.

3.5 Stories FAR MORE IMPORTANT than Rates

I think there were 4 stories that hit the tape later in the week that bear the most responsibility for the move. Let’s start with what I think was the most important headline.

  • SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P.  The eligibility rules for inclusion in S&P Dow Jones Indices would not shorten the 12-month seasoning period, and there would be no waivers on profitability regardless of size/market cap. I don’t think it is possible to overestimate the importance of index inclusion. China working hard to get their stocks (and to a lesser extent, their bonds) into indices is probably enough evidence to stop right there, but I won’t. There was some small 100-year issuance done in Europe a few years ago, that immediately skyrocketed in price, primarily because index demand was insatiable (eligible bonds typically go in at the end of the month). Again, according to Grok, at the end of 2024 there was $20 TRILLION linked to the S&P 500. MU is the 10th largest holding in SPY with a market cap of just under $1 trillion. It is 1.5% of the index. So presumably a company with a market cap of $1 trillion (which is around where some are being talked about) would mean $300 billion of “instant” demand if included in the indices? That seems so wrong, but the math seems to work, so I’ll run with it.
  • That ruling changes the potential “forced” demand. If it goes into the index, it gets bought. And no one is going to underweight these mega IPOs given their potential for outsized gains (index people are primarily afraid of not tracking in general). According to Grok, at the end of 2025, “only” $1.5 trillion tracked the Nasdaq 100. Impressive by any standard, but not the holy grail for these new IPOs.
  • The profitability test is also a concern. The goal of many of these IPOs remains growth, as it probably should be given the market environment, but that means they are not focused on profitability. From what I understand, the offering documents are not talking about near-term profitability. That potentially pushes the inclusion further down the road.
    • The ½ important story, is that the offering documents let investors see the numbers, and by the sounds of it, some of the numbers relative to valuations are raising an eyebrow. I don’t think that is super important, or should be a surprise, but I heard it mentioned enough this week, to put it down as ½ a headline that is important.
  • This is largely a zero-sum game, because stocks would have been sold to make room for the IPOs, but from a headline perspective that is one or two steps removed, and forces participants to come up with money for the new issues using different mechanisms. Maybe that is a “weak” answer, but I don’t think it impacts markets as zero-sum at the moment – treat this lack of inclusion as a headwind.
  • It will be curious to live in a world where some of the biggest companies, by market cap, don’t move the S&P 500, but it seems that this is the path we are heading down.
  • Stories hit the tape that Meta was potentially considering raising “tens of billions” in a stock offering after Google’s record $85 billion share deal. We have lived in a world where knowing “blackout” periods was important because companies tended to buy back less stock during those periods (not sure if that was ever true, but it is a perception that was out there). Is the market going to have to digest a lot more equity issuance than previously thought? Is the share buyback era shifting? Share buybacks have been a tailwind for markets, and a reversal of that could weigh on markets. The issuance seems to make a lot of sense (tapping as many pools of capital as possible to work on the AI and Data Center buildout), but it should weigh on markets as it is yet more dollars to absorb.
  • Broadcom missed AI Expectations. Not sure how true that headline is, but it gathered momentum after their earnings. I suspect it was as much about the market waiting for an excuse to sell, than it was anything really inherent to their business. If it was just their business, the damage wouldn’t have been so widespread. Regardless of the accuracy of the headlines, we had the media, for the first time in ages, being able to question the ongoing AI spend. That is important, especially for anyone who was looking for a “catalyst” to end the parabolic run.

I think these 3.5 stories played a much bigger role in the weakness than either Iran or rates did.

That is somewhat concerning from a risk perspective, because all 3.5 stories have “legs” to them and if this is a real challenge to the parabolic move, we have plenty of downside left for stocks.

More AI Anecdotes

Last week I mentioned that at conferences, attendees no longer want to “hear” about AI. They want concrete examples of implementations. What worked? What didn’t?

Conversations I’ve had this past week all point to similar questions about “is AI currently a good value proposition.” If I wasn’t hearing that so much, I wouldn’t have planned on writing about the AI Revolution. A lot of questions rising to the surface about whether the cost of tokens is delivering what was expected in terms of efficiencies or business opportunities/development. It is far from being one-sided, but the move for many from “relatively inexpensive monthly subscriptions” to a token-based model is letting people do more thorough analysis.

Yes, AI is only going to get better, but are we paying too much for what it delivers today? Probably not, but the parabolic run in stocks linked to the sector leaves them susceptible to any level of doubt.

Gambling versus Investing

Sometimes I refer to the “gambling” crowd as the “degens.” The ones who love 0DTE (Zero Day to Expiration Options), “meme” stocks, Leveraged ETFs (especially single stock leveraged ETFs), and even alt coins. Anything to turn 1 into 100.

I believe they helped drive gold higher at the margin. Without a doubt they focus on crypto periodically, but as bitcoin volatility has declined, it has attracted less of this money.

Have they played a role in the big move in semis? Not if SOXL or TQQQ (3x leveraged ETFs) are a sign, as they’ve been experiencing outflows, but I cannot help but think they have helped the parabolic move (it is, almost definitionally, the type of thing they do).

Which brings me to one other security I’m watching closely. The MSTR Multi-Coupon Cumulative Perpetual Preferred often referred to by MSTR and social media as STRC. The current coupon is set to 11.5%. My “basic” understanding is that this instrument is designed to set its coupon to pull the instrument towards par. Whenever it trades much above 100, the strategy is to use the premium to add bitcoin.

It was trading around 99 until early this week when MSTR sold some bitcoin, apparently to fund the dividend.It was 32 bitcoin – a tiny fraction of the almost 850,000 bitcoin MSTR holds! It seems like a trivial amount (and in fact is a trivial amount). But there was a sentiment that MSTR would never sell bitcoin to pay the dividend (saw a lot of quotes about being told to sell a kidney to buy more Bitcoin).

This closed Friday at 93.4 (with bitcoin at $61.5k). Bitcoin is trading lower than that now. While this particular security should not be directly linked to the price of bitcoin (based on capital structure, etc.), it seems to be a driving factor.

Is the “gambling” crowd still heavily invested in crypto? Did they chase the recent upside, only to end up down 25% in less than a month?

Disruptive tech (I often use ARKK as a proxy) got hit hard this week and while off its lows is down on the year.

I fear that the crowd that gambles in some or all of these spaces is under pressure across the board, which may lead to selling pressure. As a whole, this isn’t a big group, but at the margin, when they are chasing the same trade, they have an outsized impact.

Bottom Line

Look for yields to trend higher. That isn’t a major problem for equities, but it isn’t helping.

Credit will have to leak wider, even with higher yields, if equities continue to drop. There is just too much money in various cap structure trades for that not to occur, but credit will outperform. In fact, the equity issuance by some companies, rather than issuing even more debt, is good for credit at the expense of the equity price. Not quite the Debt Diet, but plays out similarly (5-year ORCL CDS for example is well off its highs in March).

I think the 3.5 stories, along with Iran, and higher yields, can add to pressure on stocks.

Having said that, this admin has come up with some stick saves for stocks before and they have all weekend to come up with another one! It is so painfully scary to be bearish equities, and that is probably the right trade, but that doesn’t make it any less scary.

Sell in May and Go Away seemed stupid, until this first week of June.

I continue to see this as an economy with two distinct components:

  • An economy facing “affordability” issues, dealing with a low hire, low fire job market (though that might be understating the health of the job market, but I haven’t fully gotten on board with that). That part of the economy is struggling and consumers seem to be sticking to experiential spending versus goods spending, but how long can that last? The stocks affected reflect this.
  • The AI and data center buildout economy. Booming! Yet, after any parabolic move, was Wall Street so stupid a couple of months ago that this area was so undervalued that a parabolic move makes sense? Or was the move so great that any questions could cause a significant pullback (who’d have thought we’d be wondering if a one-day 10% move is “significant”). The answer is probably somewhere in between.

Without some new headline out of DC (or a change of tune from the S&P) look for choppiness and more weakness in stocks.

I think the “rotation” theme is limited as this move is about questioning the AI/Data Center valuations and nothing has been done to fix the affordability issues.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 17:30

'I Could've Kept It That Way': Trump Admits The Inflation Is His Choice - For A War That 'Isn't A War'

'I Could've Kept It That Way': Trump Admits The Inflation Is His Choice - For A War That 'Isn't A War'

In a wide-ranging interview in which he touted record stock prices and rebranded weapons-grade uranium as "nuclear dust" (and then stormed out), President Donald Trump said the quiet part out loud: the prices Americans are paying at the pump are not an accident. This was all his decision.

"I could've kept it that way," Trump told NBC's Kristen Welker in an interview taped in a rain-battered Wisconsin barn before he was set to appear at a farming industry roundtable discussion - describing the cheap gasoline everyone enjoyed during his first few months back in office. "But I said, I have to take a little bit of a turn ... We're going to have higher gasoline. We're going to have a little higher fertilizer, et cetera, et cetera. But I'm going to get rid of a nuclear weapon in the hands of very dangerous people."

"The farmers love me"

Asked about farmers who can no longer afford fertilizer - seventy percent of them, by Welker's count - Trump didn't push back, but instead changed the subject to loyalty.

"I had a choice to make. I could keep it going. The farmers were doing great. Fertilizer was very cheap. Everything was cheap. Gasoline was very low. Everything was very low. I could've kept it that way. But I said, I have to take a little bit of a turn. The farmers are going to understand it better than anybody."

Trump leaned on his heavy support in the heartland. "I love the farmers, and the farmers love me. The farmers trust me," he said, pointing to the $28 billion in trade-war bailouts he cut growers in his first term. So - the economic cost of the US-Israeli war on Iran is something that Americans should be willing to eat for him.

And again, promises of utopia: 

"And when we have a completion, you will see things like you've never seen. The oil will go down."

"It's all coming down as soon as the war's over," he promised of gas and diesel. When Welker pressed for a timeline, he bristled - "No, but you keep talking about speed" - and reached again for Vietnam.

The public is less patient: an Economist/YouGov survey this week found sixty-eight percent of adults want a deal to end the war as fast as possible, including fifty-five percent of his own 2024 voters. They are being asked to finance a known cost today against a promised windfall on an unscheduled tomorrow, on the word of a president whose case rests on never having to name the day. That is not an economic argument. It is a leap of faith with a fuel surcharge.

Blame The Fed

And of course, it's the Fed's fault for not aligning with Trump's agenda. Given whispers that the institution is actually considering hiking rates in response to a strong jobs report, Trump preemptively branded the move as a crime against prosperity. 

"There's no reason to raise interest rates ... What they do is when they raise interest rates, they try and kill success. I don't want to kill success. We should actually lower interest rates."

And then - in what should give any bondholder pause: "Growth is the greatest thing you can have, and growth does not cause inflation." No, apparently it takes braking a core campaign promise to personally engineer higher prices. Meanwhile, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh gavels his first meeting later this month, and Trump was careful to say he would not "have a big influence on him" - except, he clearly spelled out his expectations.

"I would like to see rates get lower," he said, "because we could build this into the greatest machine that the world has ever seen, but you can't do that when everybody immediately raises interest rates."

 

Meanwhile, Trump insists Iran can be starved into surrender... 

"They tried a blockade, and now we blockaded them," he said of Iran. "And, as you know, they're losing $400-500 million a day. It's not sustainable for them. They have an economy that's shot, in addition to everything else." The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil; and the valve Trump is twisting shut to strangle Tehran is the same valve lifting fuel costs in Des Moines. The blockade he is celebrating and the inflation he admitted choosing are directly linked.

Asked what happens if the talks fail, Trump did not hedge: "Either way, we win." Asked about the highly enriched uranium still buried in Iran, he offered a branding note.

"The official name is highly enriched uranium. And I call it nuclear dust because it seemed to be nice, and everyone understands it better, and it's sort of cute, and people picked it up."

He assured Welker the sites are under constant watch from orbit: "If anybody walked there, if you walked over there, I would be able to read your first name on your lapel. And these are cameras up in space. It's pretty amazing technology. Space Force." He claimed, in passing and without elaboration, that the United States "took over Venezuela in a matter of minutes." He put Iran's surviving arsenal at "maybe 21-22% of their missiles ... It's a lot of missiles, but it's not what it was when we first attacked." 

No New Wars (because this isn't a war!)

Trump was elected in large part on three words he repeated from 2015 onward: no new wars. 

Welker asked the obvious question - had he broken that promise? Trump said 'no,' but then insisted that he had never made the promise in the first place.

"First of all, I didn't guarantee no war," Trump said. "Why would I have built the strongest military in the world?" When Welker pointed out that he had said it "over and over again," he did not relent. "So when you say I promised, I didn't promise anything. I don't like these endless wars. This is not an endless war."

For the anti-interventionists who treated that pledge as a covenant - the ones who forgave a great deal because at least he would not start the next Iraq - this is the moment the bill came due, narrated by the man who ran it up. He is now prosecuting two wars at once. He will not call either one a war. And his defense, start to finish, is not strategic. It is linguistic.

Not a war, a "military exercise" for "regime change"

Trump then leaned heavily on semantics, insisting this isn't a war...

"I call it a military exercise because people would rather have it called that," he said early on. "It's not a big war for us. It's not."

Pressed on the naval blockade of Iran – which is, under international law, itself an act of war – he simply declined to engage the category. "I don't consider that a war, but if you want to define it as such, I guess you can." Asked directly how he would define it, he offered the cleanest statement of the whole doctrine: "I don't define it at all. I don't think about it. I just do what I have to do." 

Describing the leadership Tehran has installed after the killing of the old Supreme Leader and his lieutenants, Trump volunteered the word the entire post-Iraq right swore off: "And you could say it's regime change actually because these are very different people. I find them to be more rational, very smart." - said the guy who built his brand on mocking the people who gave the country Iraq and Libya. And not in one country but two: in the same interview he claimed the United States "took over Venezuela in a matter of minutes." 

Thirteen dead - better than Vietnam! 

Trump's proof that it is all going well is a body count. "We've had 13 people killed," he said, more than once, "and that includes two wars. That's Venezuela, and that's Iran." He means it as triumph: fewer dead than Vietnam, than Iraq, than any war you can name. But for the people who took "no new wars" at face value, the framing collapses on contact. Thirteen Americans are dead in two conflicts the president started and refuses to call wars, sold under the banner he insists makes it acceptable: "You know, it's America first. I'm doing our country a service."

That is the real breach, and it is worse than a broken promise. You can hold a man to a promise. What you cannot do is hold him to a war he will not admit is a war, or a pledge he insists he never made. The Wisconsin barn produced no policy reversal and no apology. It produced something more useful to understand: a president who has discovered that the surest way to keep a promise is to deny, on camera, that you ever gave it.

Doing The World A Service

At the end of the day, Trump had no choice:

"I had to stop a country, very powerful, very dangerous country, from having a nuclear weapon because they'd use it. They'd blow up the world. They'd blow up the Middle East. They'd blow up Israel. They'd come here. They'd blow up Europe. They're nuts, okay? They’re crazy people. I deal with them. And very high-strung people. Little crazy. And – I get along with them. I like them. But you don't want to let them have a nuclear weapon. And I'm doing the world a service, but I'm doing our country a service. You know, it's America first. I'm doing our country a service. Nice rain."

Indeed... 

Trump then called Welker and the MSM 'crooked' and stormed out - which, hey, we can't argue with! 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 17:15

Angry Pentagon Sources Leak Report Of Israel's 'Unhinged' Spying On US Officials

Angry Pentagon Sources Leak Report Of Israel's 'Unhinged' Spying On US Officials

It's no secret that Israeli spying and surveillance is pervasive, and it is often even directed at its most powerful ally and backer, the United States. But the phenomenon has escalated of late, outraging Washington intelligence officials.

Behind the scenes of this alliance which mainstream media and pundits typically project as essentially untouchable, deep-seated friction is boiling over. In an unprecedented move, the Pentagon has officially elevated Israel's counterintelligence threat level to its highest possible category, driven by surging internal alarm that this primary Mideast regional ally is aggressively ramping up espionage operations targeting senior US officials - even Trump's own top Iran negotiator.

Pentagon file image

The intelligence warning, freshly reported this weekend by NBC News and The New York Times, highlights a profound rift within the national security apparatus as tensions mount between the Trump administration and Israel over the ongoing joint war on Iran.

The revelation's timing is interesting, given it comes after Axios reported at the start of this month that on a phone call President Trump 'steamrolled' Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump is said to have been "pissed" and at one point yelled and berated Netanyahu, saying "What the fuck are you doing?"

And now, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is broadcasting an internal alert raising Israel's specific threat designation to "critical". According to details revealed in a Sunday NBC report:

The designation stems from concerns within the Pentagon that Israel is making a particular effort to surveil top U.S. officials to get information on the Trump administration’s internal deliberations and decision-making on the conflicts in the Middle East, the officials said.

The DIA assessment includes a seven-page document and features a chart, according to one of the current U.S. officials. The document says the assessment of Israel is that its ability to conduct human espionage and technical collection is at a “critical level,” according to the official.

And parallel to this, a report by the NY Times lists out names that are very high level within the Trump administration. Israel has allegedly focused its electronic and human efforts to eavesdrop on the following officials (likely among others):

  • Steve Witkoff, Trump’s premier regional negotiator.
  • Elbridge A. Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy official.
  • Michael P. DiMino IV, one of Colby’s primary deputies.

The Israeli embassy in Washingtons has slammed the reports as 'completely false': "This entire story is false and sourced to someone who doesn’t have any knowledge of what’s going on," it said in a statement.

But the major US media reports highlight American intel officials who don't try and tone down or couch their words. Instead they speak of "unhinged" Israeli spying on US government officials.

The targeting of Colby is particularly notable given his past public policy statements, where he has explicitly called for a "reset" on the foundational US relationship with Israel. More broadly, Israel is worried about losing the political Right in the United States, given the number of younger, prominent conservative 'influencers' who have been highly critical of Israel of late.

Meanwhile the DIA dossier explicitly concludes that Israel's capabilities to execute both human espionage (HUMINT) and technical collection (SIGINT) and provides deals and documentation of specific recent incidents

Current and former US officials summarized the crisis to NBC by noting that Israel's recent clandestine activities have moved far beyond the baseline, routine espionage conventionally tolerated on some level between friendly nations.

It appears the Netanyahu government is going to great lengths to ensure President Trump doesn't make a 'bad deal' to end the Iran war. Also, it's clear - given these new leaks by US officials - that Trump insiders are quite outraged at this Israeli aggression on the intelligence-sharing front.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 16:55

Former Musk Adviser Sriram Krishnan Leaving White House AI Role

Former Musk Adviser Sriram Krishnan Leaving White House AI Role

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

Senior White House policy adviser on artificial intelligence Sriram Krishnan, a former Twitter executive who advised Elon Musk during his acquisition of the social media platform, announced Saturday he will leave his role at the end of June.

U.S. President Donald Trump hands a pen to Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence Sriram Krishnan after signing an executive order while U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) (2nd L) and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick look on in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Dec. 11, 2025. Alex Wong/Getty Images

In a social media post, Krishnan described serving the American people as "the privilege of a lifetime" and thanked President Donald Trump for the opportunity.

"Without his leadership, we would not be leading in the AI race," Krishnan wrote.

Krishnan also thanked David Sacks, saying he had worked most closely with him over the past 18 months and praising his advocacy for American leadership in artificial intelligence.

Among the accomplishments Krishnan said he was most proud of were helping architect and publish the American AI Action Plan, advancing AI acceleration partnerships, helping develop the National AI Policy Framework for AI executive order, and advocating for the American AI technology sector with allies around the world.

Looking ahead, Krishnan said the United States and its allies face challenges involving energy, data centers, and expanding access to artificial intelligence technologies.

"I plan on building institutions that help tackle some of those challenges for America and its allies," he wrote.

Krishnan also thanked numerous administration officials and others for their support, including Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Elon Musk, and others.

Krishnan leaves as opposition to AI data centers has grown rapidly across the country as projects expand into communities.

According to Data Center Watch, an estimated $152 billion in potential data center investment was blocked or delayed in 2025. Hundreds of activist groups in 42 states organized to oppose new projects or expansions. Critics cite concerns over water consumption, electricity demand, noise, and the lack of long-term studies on health and environmental impacts. There are more than 3,100 data centers in the United States, according to the Data Center Map. There are another 1,800 data centers in some state of development.

Trump announced Krishnan was joining the White House as an adviser in December 2024.

"Sriram Krishnan will serve as Senior Policy Advisor for Artificial Intelligence at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy," the president said at that time. "Working closely with David Sacks, Sriram will focus on ensuring continued American leadership in A.I., and help shape and coordinate A.I. policy across Government, including working with the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Sriram started his career at Microsoft as a founding member of Windows Azure."

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 16:20

New York Legislature Passes Data Center Moratorium

New York Legislature Passes Data Center Moratorium

Authored by Nicholas Zifcak via The Epoch Times,

The New York state Legislature passed a one-year data center permit moratorium June 4 in the final days of the legislative session. If Gov. Kathy Hochul signs it into law, New York would be the first to enact a statewide moratorium.

A data center in Tennessee. Courtesy of CleanSpark

The legislation requires a pause on permitting while the state Department of Environmental Conservation conducts a comprehensive study on the impact of data centers on electricity, pollution, and water and land use.

The law would apply to data centers that draw 20 megawatts or more of power at peak use. It would also require data centers to increasingly rely on non-carbon energy sources, using one-third renewables by 2030 and 90 percent by 2040.

When asked on June 3 about the legislation during an unrelated event in Brooklyn, Hochul said she will consider the moratorium, and that "the status quo can't continue."

Hochul said that if data centers are built in New York, she wants to ensure local communities benefit.

The governor expressed concern that though local communities may want data centers, they may not be in a strong position to handle negotiations with those looking to build them: "Question No. 1, is the community able to negotiate enough to get benefits?" she said.

Hyperscale data centers, which today largely handle artificial intelligence data processing, consume enormous amounts of energy, ranging from tens to hundreds of megawatts - equal to the power used by tens of thousands of homes during peak demand.

As of July 2025, New York state's electrical grid operator had received more than two dozen large load requests to connect to the power grid, equivalent to 6,055 megawatts of power. By December 2025, the large load requests had increased to 48, totaling 12,000 megawatts, nearly doubling in five months.

The operators said in a report in February that maintaining on-demand power availability and grid reliability will be a major challenge given the additional demand.

This comes at a time when New York state electricity rates haven been on a steady incline. According to the state power grid operator, the main factors are rising natural gas prices and a climate law that is forcing older carbon-emitting power plants to make costly upgrades or go offline faster than newer, cleaner energy sources are being added to the grid.

To address this, the moratorium legislation would also require the state utility regulator, the Public Service Commission, to require utilities to assess the costs of serving data centers, including any necessary infrastructure upgrades, and to establish separate rates for such centers.

Local Impact

Communities in upstate New York present an attractive location for large data centers with inexpensive land, cooler temperatures, and, in some areas, abundant hydroelectric power.

That's the case in St. Lawrence County, where the St. Lawrence River delineates the border with Canada and a massive hydroelectric dam serves the region. Not only is there abundant power from the Moses-Saunders Power Dam, but the region's manufacturing history also means there's infrastructure to use and deliver it.

New York's independent power grid manager has received 17 large load, 10 megawatts or more, requests to connect to the grid in St. Lawrence County, eight of which appear to be from data centers. Whether such requests translate into solid proposals is yet to be seen, but county legislator Rita Curran said she is aware of two proposals currently under review.

Curran sponsored a resolution in the county Board of Legislators that passed on June 1, acknowledging the enormous impact data centers can have on the local electric grid and on communities at large, and noting significant local opposition. Even so, the resolution calls on the governor and the legislature not to usurp county authority in the review and approval process for data centers, and ensures that "counties are not preempted from exercising their land use, taxation, and zoning authority."

The resolution also urges local city governments to consider a moratorium on data centers. Curran told The Epoch Times it is a homerule issue. "I just feel like the people who live here and the people who govern here should have some ability to be part of the discussion versus everything being ruled by people that have never been here."

She said she's not happy the state legislature passed the moratorium.

"I think that they will hinder any development at all. We don't have a great business environment for people," Curran said.

"The decisions should be more based in the communities because what goes on in Albany is like a different world."

Patrick Kelly, CEO of the St. Lawrence County Industrial Development Agency, agrees that the local process can handle the decision. He said the potential moratorium sends the wrong signal.

"In terms of business development, business friendliness, being open for business and investment, moratoriums aren't necessarily an encouraging outcome," he told The Epoch Times.

Kelly thinks local communities should decide because they are the ones most affected by the facilities. He said the existing processes for the community to review any such proposals are already in place, including local zoning, planning, permitting, and project approval.

"I think letting those processes do the work that they were set up to do leads to the best outcomes for any community," Kelly said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 15:10

Bessent Examining Use Of Frozen Iranian Assets To Help Gulf Countries Rebuild

Bessent Examining Use Of Frozen Iranian Assets To Help Gulf Countries Rebuild

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly pursuing a pathway to repurpose Iranian assets to compensate Amerca's Gulf allies which have suffered significant damage due to Iran's attacks in the wake of Trump's Operation Epic Fury.

Over eighty oil, gas, and vital infrastructure facilities across the Gulf have been hit - with most of the attacks having occurred in March and April - with one recent report estimating up to $58 billion in damage. Iran has sought to justify these attacks as 'retaliation' for these Gulf countries hosting American bases during the US unprovoked assault on the Islamic Republic.

Image source: White House

"Treasury will utilize all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be made available to our Gulf allies to support rebuilding and repairs for any future damage caused by Iran," a US official told ABC's Senior White House correspondent Selina Wang over the weekend.

"The Secretary has also directed his team to assess conditions amongst our Gulf allies and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage Iran has inflicted since the start of the conflict," the source continued.

"Treasury will further consider whether Iranian assets could be used to support repairs for past damages," it added, per the ABC correspondent. She also wrote on X:

The Iranian assets could include frozen assets and ships the U.S. has seized. The administration is reaching out to Gulf allies right now and asking for their evaluation.

If Treasury pulls the trigger on such a plan, it would likely further derail efforts to get Tehran and Washington back to the negotiating table. Already the US has balked at Iran's own insistent it be given reparations for damage done. 

Iran is demanding that its billions in funds long frozen by Washington be given back as part of a deal. The Trump administration has so far appeared to reject this.

While some Gulf allies might welcome this, some might see it as unrealistic and a recipe for just prolonging the war. In this scenario, Gulf societies would only suffer more, especially in any future escalation leading to all-out war.

The D.C. think tank Freedom for Defense of Democracies has estimated Iran's damage suffered since the US-Israel war on it was launched at well over $100 billion, and possibly reaching as high as $300 billion - according to the highest-end estimates.

"FDD’s first model-based estimate of Iran's economic losses to date due to Operation Epic Fury are $144 billion, or 40 percent of pre-war GDP," a late April report said.

TOTAL IRAN ECONOMIC DAMAGE ESTIMATE, FDD on April 23...

On this basis, Tehran will pursue its case that it unjustly suffered the greatest damage to its national infrastructure and society, and that the surprise attack was launched as it was seeking to engage in good faith negotiations with the United States, ironically enough.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/07/2026 - 14:35

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