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US Apartment Rents Post Largest Annual Decline Since 2017 In March: Report

US Apartment Rents Post Largest Annual Decline Since 2017 In March: Report

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The national median apartment rent shook off the seasonal winter chill and inched up by 0.4 percent in March from February to $1,363, Apartment List reported.

A sign is posted in front of an apartment building with available rentals in San Francisco on June 9, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

However, the median rent was down by 1.7 percent from March 2025, the largest annual decline since Apartment List began compiling records in 2017. By comparison, year-over-year growth peaked at 18 percent during the winter of 2021.

Rents are generally soft or stagnant during the late fall and winter months as renters tend to forgo moving plans when it’s cold outside, but rates trend upward with warmer springtime and summer weather. The slight gain in March was the second consecutive monthly increase following a six-month span of declining rents, the Apartment List report said.

“This turn represents the market creeping out of the off-season, and we’ll likely see continued increases in the months ahead as moving activity ramps up, in line with typical seasonal patterns,” researchers at the organization wrote.

The national median rent peaked at $1,442 in August 2022 but has since trended downward, excluding seasonal jumps during the past three summers. Despite being 5.5 percent lower than its pandemic-induced peak, the national median monthly rent was still up 15 percent from $1,146 in January 2021.

Rents have softened behind a massive buildup of new apartment inventory. According to a February report by the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), multifamily development starts peaked at 547,000 apartment units in 2022, though apartment starts had dipped by 35 percent from that level by 2024. Multifamily starts were expected to be stronger in 2025 at an estimated 413,000 new units, the NAHB reported.

However, new multifamily construction is expected to taper off in 2026 and drop even further over the following two years, the NAHB stated.

“The multifamily market has slowed due to tighter financing and elevated construction costs and is moving towards a more constrained development environment,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the NAHB, in a statement.

Multifamily completions, meanwhile, peaked in 2024 with more than 608,000 new units hitting the market, a 38-year high, Nanayakkara-Skillington added.

That surge in inventory has led to rising vacancy rates. The vacancy rate among stabilized properties (those with at least 85 percent occupancy) is 7.3 percent, the highest rate since 2017, Apartment List noted.

The aggressive delivery of new apartment inventory in Sun Belt states has put downward pressure on rents, CoStar Group said in its latest market report. Year-over-year rent growth was down by 1.3 percent across the South in March, while the Mountain region dipped by 2.2 percent, CoStar Group reported.

Multifamily market conditions are expected to remain soft through the year, Apartment List added.

“Year-over-year rent growth hit a new low this month, while vacancies and time-on-market are both at peak levels. The wave of construction that has been driving these conditions is waning, but it now appears that weaker rental demand may keep rental conditions soft,” researchers wrote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 15:20

US Apartment Rents Post Largest Annual Decline Since 2017 In March: Report

US Apartment Rents Post Largest Annual Decline Since 2017 In March: Report

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The national median apartment rent shook off the seasonal winter chill and inched up by 0.4 percent in March from February to $1,363, Apartment List reported.

A sign is posted in front of an apartment building with available rentals in San Francisco on June 9, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

However, the median rent was down by 1.7 percent from March 2025, the largest annual decline since Apartment List began compiling records in 2017. By comparison, year-over-year growth peaked at 18 percent during the winter of 2021.

Rents are generally soft or stagnant during the late fall and winter months as renters tend to forgo moving plans when it’s cold outside, but rates trend upward with warmer springtime and summer weather. The slight gain in March was the second consecutive monthly increase following a six-month span of declining rents, the Apartment List report said.

“This turn represents the market creeping out of the off-season, and we’ll likely see continued increases in the months ahead as moving activity ramps up, in line with typical seasonal patterns,” researchers at the organization wrote.

The national median rent peaked at $1,442 in August 2022 but has since trended downward, excluding seasonal jumps during the past three summers. Despite being 5.5 percent lower than its pandemic-induced peak, the national median monthly rent was still up 15 percent from $1,146 in January 2021.

Rents have softened behind a massive buildup of new apartment inventory. According to a February report by the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), multifamily development starts peaked at 547,000 apartment units in 2022, though apartment starts had dipped by 35 percent from that level by 2024. Multifamily starts were expected to be stronger in 2025 at an estimated 413,000 new units, the NAHB reported.

However, new multifamily construction is expected to taper off in 2026 and drop even further over the following two years, the NAHB stated.

“The multifamily market has slowed due to tighter financing and elevated construction costs and is moving towards a more constrained development environment,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the NAHB, in a statement.

Multifamily completions, meanwhile, peaked in 2024 with more than 608,000 new units hitting the market, a 38-year high, Nanayakkara-Skillington added.

That surge in inventory has led to rising vacancy rates. The vacancy rate among stabilized properties (those with at least 85 percent occupancy) is 7.3 percent, the highest rate since 2017, Apartment List noted.

The aggressive delivery of new apartment inventory in Sun Belt states has put downward pressure on rents, CoStar Group said in its latest market report. Year-over-year rent growth was down by 1.3 percent across the South in March, while the Mountain region dipped by 2.2 percent, CoStar Group reported.

Multifamily market conditions are expected to remain soft through the year, Apartment List added.

“Year-over-year rent growth hit a new low this month, while vacancies and time-on-market are both at peak levels. The wave of construction that has been driving these conditions is waning, but it now appears that weaker rental demand may keep rental conditions soft,” researchers wrote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 15:20

US Defense Stocks Take Epic Fury Beating, Leaving UBS Asking Why

US Defense Stocks Take Epic Fury Beating, Leaving UBS Asking Why

Despite the launch of Operation Epic Fury against Iran in late February, U.S. defense stocks have moved lower rather than higher, prompting a UBS analyst to pen a note to clients this week attempting to answer why the makers of missiles and tanks failed to sustain a wartime rally.

Analyst Allyson Gordon asked the question: "Why Is US Defense Performance Lackluster?" 

Let's start with iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF, or ITA, a basket of major U.S. defense firms. ITA caught an early bid in the first phase of Operation Epic Fury, but the rally failed to hold shortly after that. By late March, the fund was down nearly 16%. The fund has since rebounded in recent sessions, trading around $223 on Thursday morning, but the defense complex's inability to sustain a war-driven rally caught investors off guard.

Gordon provided her take on why defense stocks has underperformed during the first month of the conflict:

Defense is one of the more asked groups on "lack of outperformance" in the wake of the Middle East conflict – I think a lot is in part a function of a high starting point with a ton of money piling into Defense at the end of 2025/start of 2026 on geopolitical tension and budget optimism, along with these being non-AI/non-cyclical big cap stocks attached to a good theme (i.e. exposure diversification). 

Now, there are also questions on midterms and supplemental. I still sense investors holding on but poor performance is forcing some cautious sentiment creep. RTX is the one investors are fighting the hardest on the recent lag.

She added:

Trading Color: Clear de-risking. Initially saw a rush of demand to start the year, but now the desk is much better for sale especially from the Long Only community. Most skewed in RTX, Lockheed Martin, Lam Research and Parsons.

In a separate note, Melius analyst Scott Mikus saw an opportunity in the sliding shares of RTX, formerly Raytheon Technologies Corporation. He upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Hold" on the basis of "Epic Fury tailwinds."

Mikus said, "Given the need to replace missiles, missile interceptors, damaged radars, aircraft, and other equipment used in Operation Epic Fury, we are raising our estimates and price targets for the large defense primes."

"We see margin tailwinds for defense contractors as they move past stale-priced contracts and receive awards for mature production programs that are margin accretive," added Mikus.

The lingering question is how defense stocks will hold up as the Trump administration looks for an off-ramp to wind down the Iran operation, especially with U.S. gasoline prices now averaging above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 15:00

OpenAI Snaps Up TBPN, Slashes ChatGPT Pricing As Secondary Market Interest Fades

OpenAI Snaps Up TBPN, Slashes ChatGPT Pricing As Secondary Market Interest Fades

Update (1400ET): In a surprise move, OpenAI has acquired TBPN (Technology Business Programming Network), the influential daily technology talk show and media platform hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays. TBPN has become one of Silicon Valley’s most-watched programs for real-time tech news, M&A rumors, high-profile executive interviews, and AI developments - often described as “SportsCenter for the tech industry.” The deal gives OpenAI a powerful owned-media channel to directly reach and engage the tech community while accelerating global conversations around AI. The show will continue unchanged: live weekdays from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. PT on YouTube and X, with Coogan and Hays retaining full creative control and editorial independence.

Coogan, who has a long personal history with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (including funding from Altman for his earlier startups), called the acquisition a “full circle moment.” Both hosts emphasized that TBPN “will stay the same” but will now benefit from significantly more resources to scale.

At the same time, OpenAI is accelerating its consumer growth push by expanding access to its lower-priced ChatGPT Go subscription tier. Priced at roughly $8 per month in the US (a ~60% discount to the $20 ChatGPT Plus plan), Go delivers expanded access to GPT-5.3, higher message limits, more file uploads, image generation, and longer memory. The tier - first introduced in select markets last year and rolled out globally earlier in 2026 — is now being made available in dozens of additional countries as OpenAI seeks to drive mass adoption and daily usage ahead of intensifying competition.

These announcements appear designed to bolster OpenAI’s growth narrative and consumer momentum at a moment when secondary-market demand for its shares has cooled sharply (as detailed in our reporting below). 

* * *

Interest in OpenAI’s stock on secondary markets has cooled sharply, with some large investors now struggling to find buyers according to Bloomberg.

At the same time, capital is rapidly shifting toward its main rival, Anthropic, where demand is surging.

In recent weeks, holders of OpenAI shares—including hedge funds and venture firms—have tried to offload roughly $600 million in stock, but unlike before, buyers haven’t stepped in. Platforms that once saw quick turnover now report little to no interest. Meanwhile, investors are actively setting aside billions to gain exposure to Anthropic instead.

Much of this shift comes down to valuation and perceived upside. OpenAI’s valuation has climbed to around $852 billion, leaving some investors unsure how much room remains for near-term gains. Anthropic, valued significantly lower, is increasingly viewed as having more growth potential, making it a more attractive bet right now.

The Bloomberg report notes that major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are adjusting—offering OpenAI shares with reduced fees to spark interest, while continuing to charge typical performance fees for Anthropic investments.

There are also strategic concerns. OpenAI is spending heavily on infrastructure and has been slower to expand into high-margin enterprise markets. Anthropic, by contrast, has gained stronger traction with those clients, reinforcing expectations of faster growth.

That said, Anthropic isn’t without issues, including legal disputes and recent security missteps. Still, investor appetite remains extremely strong, with secondary demand pushing its implied valuation far higher, while OpenAI shares are increasingly trading at a discount.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 14:20

Three LNG Tankers Are First To Cross Strait Of Hormuz Since War Started

Three LNG Tankers Are First To Cross Strait Of Hormuz Since War Started

While a growing number of ships have been traversing the Strait of Hormuz, with Lloyd's List reporting a total of 142 vessels have transited since the start of March, but 67% of that traffic has a direct affiliation with Iran... and the figure rises to 90% when looking at traffic in recent days, as some ships have had to pay fees in yuan or cryptocurrencies before being escorted through the strait...

... one vessel class that has so far failed to make the key crossing are LNG-carrying VLCCs, which are critical to ease the Asian nat gas supply crunch because,  unlike oil, there are no Hormuz alternatives or bypass pipelines to bring LNG/nat gas to gas-starved Asian customers where demand destruction is now rampant. 

But that is about to change: according to Bloomberg, a liquefied natural gas tanker has entered the Strait of Hormuz, and if it successfully navigates the waterway would become the first such vessel to pass through the strait since the start of the war.

The Sohar LNG tanker, which appears not to be loaded with cargo, is moving eastward after changing its destination to the Qalhat LNG export terminal in Oman, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel, which is signaling that it’s an Omani ship, had been circling around the Persian Gulf over the past month, the data show.

LNG ships have avoided the strait since the conflict broke out on Feb. 28, disrupting about a fifth of the world’s supply of the fuel.

According to Bloomberg, which first reported about the crossing, the ship’s manager, recorded as Oman Ship Management on the Equasis database, didn’t immediately respond to calls or an email seeking comment. Its owner, Energy Spring LNG Carrier SA, shares the same contact details as its manager.

More importantly, the Sohar appears to be traversing the southern side of the strait which is unusual because ships have typically taken a northerly route at Tehran’s behest. In other words, it appears that the Omanese ship is making a run for it. 

While the Sohar vessel appears to be empty, the market is closely watching for LNG flows to resume and ease pressure on global prices, as the collapse in supply from the Persian Gulf  - with Qatar's huge Ras Laffan LNG facility damaged and shut-in indefinitely - compounded by outages at Australian facilities due to a cyclone last month, has sent consumers worldwide seeking alternative sources of energy. 

More importantly, the empty LNG tanker is not alone. According to data from Lloyd's List and Hormuz Letter, two other VLCCs, and these are laden with some 4 million barrels of Saudi and Emirati cargo unlike the empty Sohar, are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, tracking close to the Omani coastline.

All three vessels are indicating they are heading to ports in Oman.

Why does this matter? Well, earlier today, Iran announced the "Oman protocol" which also includes tolls. And now ships are moving, although it wasn't clear if the ships had paid the toll demanded by Iran. 

As The Hormuz Letter notes, "The blockade isn't ending, but is being restructured. Iran is deciding who passes, under what terms, and at what price. This is what controlled access looks like."

Earlier today,  Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister of legal and international affairs, said the tanker traffic through the key oil-shipping route must be supervised and coordinated: “Of course, these requirements will not mean restrictions, but rather to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route.”

What he really meant is that going forward - all else equal - every ship will have to pay a toll in the millions, either in yuan or crypto. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 14:00

Gulf States Considering Network Of New Pipelines To Bypass Strait Of Hormuz

Gulf States Considering Network Of New Pipelines To Bypass Strait Of Hormuz

One month ago, at the start of the war, we said it was surprising that UAE's oil export terminal of Fujairah was not a bigger terminal as it bypasses the Straits completely, and predicted a "major infrastructure push here after the war."

Couple that with the latest news that the Saudi East-West pipeline is now running at capacity of roughly 7mmb/d (including non-oil products), and one can see the urgency gripping the Gulf in finding alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz which has emerged as Iran's biggest source of leverage in the war.

And that's just the start.

Confirming our observation from a month ago, the FT writes today that the threat of open-ended Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is pushing Gulf countries to revisit costly plans for pipelines to bypass the choke point so they can continue to export oil and gas.

According to officials and industry executives, new pipelines may be the only way to reduce Gulf countries’ enduring vulnerability to disruption in the strait, even though such projects would be expensive, politically complex and take years to complete.

We have already discussed the 1200km East-West pipeline: the war has underscored the strategic value of this Hormuz bypass. Built in the 1980s after fears that the Iran-Iraq “tanker war” would close the strait, it is now a key lifeline, delivering 7mn barrels of oil a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz entirely. 

“In hindsight the East-West pipeline looks like a genius masterstroke,” said one senior Gulf energy executive. 

Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi’s state-run oil giant Aramco, told analysts last month that the pipeline is the “main route that we are capitalizing on right now”. 

Now, the kingdom is considering how it can export more of its 10.2mn barrels of daily production by pipeline, rather than through Iranian-controlled waters. This includes examining whether it should expand the capacity of the East-West pipeline further or build new routes. According to the FT. previous plans for pipelines across the region have repeatedly stalled, undone by high costs and complexity. But Maisoon Kafafy, a senior adviser to the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, said the mood in the Gulf has now changed. 

“I’m sensing a shift from hypotheticals into operational reality,” she said. “Everyone is looking at the same map and they are drawing the same conclusions.”

To eliminate the threat of centralized "points of failure", rather than individual projects, the most resilient option “is not a single alternative pipeline but rather a network, a web of corridors”, said Kafafy, although she added that it would also be the hardest to achieve.

In the longer term, any new pipelines are likely to form part of trade routes through which a wider range of goods beyond oil and gas can flow. One option is the revival of US-led plans for an ambitious corridor that would run from India through the Gulf and then to Europe, called IMEC, one Gulf official said, although part of this project originally included a politically tricky pipeline that ran to the Israeli port of Haifa. 

Yossi Abu, the chief executive of Israeli company NewMed Energy, said he was confident that pipelines to the Mediterranean Sea would be built, whether they terminated at Israeli or Egyptian ports.

“People need to control their own destinies, with their friends,” he said. “You need oil pipelines, railway connectivity, throughout the region, onshore, without giving others bottlenecks to choke us.” 

A push for more bypasses means bumper revenues for local contruction companies. Christopher Bush, the CEO of Cat Group, the private Lebanese company that was one of the main builders of Saudi’s East-West pipeline, said there was plenty of interest in new projects even before the war began. “We have had inquiries about various different pipelines,” he said. “I have multiple different presentations on my desk.” 

But the obstacles remain immense, he added. The cost of replicating the East-West pipeline today, which involved blasting through the hard basalt of the Hijaz mountain on Saudi’s Red Sea coast, would be at least $5bn, Bush estimated. Proposals for more complicated multi-country routes from Iraq through Jordan, Syria or Turkey would cost $15bn to $20bn. “It has been looked at. There are even front-end engineering studies for [such routes from] Iraq. There is an opportunity that has been discussed,” he said.

But security risks include “a lot” of unexploded bombs in Iraq and the continuing presence of Isis or other militants. Pipelines running south to ports in Oman would also face the difficulty of passing through both desert and hard-rock mountains, Bush warned. Ports in Oman are not immune from Iranian security threats. Drone attacks on the key port of Salalah in recent days forced it to shut temporarily.

Political challenges also include who will operate the pipeline and control the flow. A network of pipelines would require Gulf countries “to abandon their individualist policies and combine. It was always deemed cheaper and safer to bring a ship, load a ship and sail a ship,” Bush added.

In the near term, the most viable options may be to expand the East-West pipeline and also Abu Dhabi’s existing route to Fujairah, just as we suggested weeks ago. This would increase capacity without the complications of new cross-border infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia could also develop additional export terminals on its Red Sea coast, including at the deepwater port being built for the Neom project. “I am sure they are looking at it as a possibility,” said Bush. “You have a lot of smart minds looking at all of this now. It is a big problem.” 

One senior energy executive said Abu Dhabi had “always had a plan B for a second pipeline to Fujairah”. But they added that no decisions are likely to be made until the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz becomes clear.

Kafafy agreed that Gulf states will take a while to assess the situation with the waterway, but said they now recognise that the scale of the current energy crisis demands a new way of thinking. “The conversations have moved further along the chain,” she said. “I do not expect [the status quo] to return to where it was pre-conflict.”

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 13:40

Kremlin Asks US For Ceasefire At Bushehr Nuclear Plant To Get Remaining Russian Staff Out

Kremlin Asks US For Ceasefire At Bushehr Nuclear Plant To Get Remaining Russian Staff Out

Russia is seeking approval from the US and Israel for a ceasefire for the Bushehr nuclear ⁠power plant in Iran, RIA news agency reported Thursday. Airstrikes across the country have reportedly been on the uptick in the past some 48 hours.

"The travel routes will be communicated ‌to the relevant authorities in Israel and the United States, and we will use all channels to request strict adherence to the ceasefire ⁠during the convoy’s movement," the ⁠head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, stated.

Well over 500 Russian personnel were at the site prior to the US launching Operation Epic Fury, and the Bushehr complex has been hit at least three times by airstrikes, putting the complex and area at severe risk.

via Anadolu Agency

Likhachev said that a "final ⁠wave of evacuation" of some 200 people is tentatively scheduled for next week. There's been a lot of Russian technicians and personnel there given the plant was undergoing expansion, and it's Russia which first constructed Busherh - and so has technical expertise.

The Kremlin has accused Washington and Israel of putting the whole region in danger, and further of harming the cause of nuclear non-proliferation globally.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova days ago issued statement saying, "The drama of the situation is aggravated by the fact that countries attacking peaceful nuclear facilities in Iran are effectively undermining  the NPT, the IAEA's verification mechanisms, nuclear and physical security conventions, as well as the agency's relevant regulations," according to the ministry's website.

"Carefully crafted and internationally agreed solutions are not taken seriously by these states and can be discarded at any moment in favor of their selfish interests and geopolitical considerations," the spokeswoman added.

Zakharova further communicated that atrocities in Iran must cease, and nuclear sites must be safeguarded, referencing the latest attacks in the past days on the complex in Khondab, the factory in Ardakan, and the strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

"The aggressors continue to raise the stakes in their war in the Middle East, ignoring all associated risks, including the danger of widespread radioactive contamination," Zakharova had said last week.

She further chastised UN and international bodies for not stepping up to loudly condemn the US-Israeli operation. The IAEA has meanwhile urged de-escalation, also as Trump is said to be mulling a possible high risk special forces operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 13:10

Coinbase Exec Says Senate CLARITY Act Deal On Stablecoin Yield "Very Close"

Coinbase Exec Says Senate CLARITY Act Deal On Stablecoin Yield "Very Close"

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is “moving toward” a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee and could eventually move to a floor vote if senators resolve the stablecoin yield dispute and schedule a markup.

Speaking in a Wednesday interview on Fox Business, Grewal said lawmakers are nearing agreement on core elements of the crypto market structure bill, even as debate continues over stablecoin yield.

“I think we’re very close to a deal,” he said.

The remarks point to possible movement on one of the last major sticking points in Senate talks over crypto market structure legislation: whether stablecoin issuers or platforms should be allowed to offer yield or similar rewards. The dispute has helped delay a Senate Banking Committee markup, leaving the broader effort to set federal rules for digital asset oversight still unresolved.

US banks have pushed for restrictions, arguing that such incentives could draw deposits away from traditional institutions and disrupt the banking system. Grewal pushed back on that claim, saying there is no evidence to support fears of deposit flight.

The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delayed a planned markup, which has yet to be rescheduled.

Trump blames banks for stalling crypto bill

Last month, US President Donald Trump accused banks of undermining efforts to pass crypto market structure legislation, saying they are blocking progress over disagreements on stablecoin yield payments. “The Banks should not be trying to undercut The Genius Act, or hold The Clarity Act hostage,” he wrote.

It was later reported that Trump met privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong just hours before issuing the statement.

Coinbase shares are down 23% YTD. Source: Yahoo! Finance

In January, Armstrong said Coinbase could not back the market structure bill “as written,” pointing to draft amendments that would eliminate stablecoin rewards and let banks restrict competition.

CLARITY delay could expose crypto to crackdowns

Last week, Coin Center executive director Peter Van Valkenburgh warned that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could leave the crypto industry vulnerable to a future US administration taking a tougher stance. He argued that rejecting developer protections in favor of short-term business interests risks creating a system shaped by political shifts rather than clear law.

“The point of passing CLARITY is not to trust this administration. It is to bind the next one,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:55

Private Credit Bank Run Begins: Blue Owl Gates After Shocking 41% Of OTIC Investors Ask For Their Money

Private Credit Bank Run Begins: Blue Owl Gates After Shocking 41% Of OTIC Investors Ask For Their Money

A week ago, in an attempt to calm the market, Goldman's economists published a lengthy, if at times disjointed, report discussing why a crisis in private credit would not lead to another financial crisis.

We are about to find out if they were right. 

Recall that in mid-March, while attention was understandably focused on the Iran war, we explained why Blue Owl's February decision to commence liquidations of loans in its three core private credit funds to fund current and future redemptions, was the industry's "Margin Call" moment, to wit: 

First it was Blue Owl, the largest pure play Private Credit fund with over $300 billion in AUM. The company, the first to face massive redemption demands, refused to gate investors and instead announced it would sell $1.4 billion in private loans (it was unclear which loans were sold, but Goldman suggested that these are likely the best ones so as to find willing buyers, leaving the company with the toxic sludge) from its three BDCs (OBDCII, OBDC and OTIC) at 99.7 cents (a number which was meant to inspire confidence yet was laughable, especially since once of the "buyers" was a related-party insurance company, Kuvare, also owned by Blue Owl), to satisfy redemption requests. 

In our February 19 article describing the Blue Owl transaction, we said that "while it is unclear how deep the secondary market for private credit assets is, to the extent demand is relatively scarce, a transaction of this size could dry up market liquidity. If that assumption is true, other BDCs looking to exit portfolio investments could be jeopardized. Recall the immortal line from Margin Call: "Be First, Be Smarter, or Cheat."

We then said that "this could very well be Blue Owl's "Be First" moment... "Sell it all, today" especially if it were to later emerge that the secondary market is only deep for higher quality private credit assets, like the ones in the portfolio OWL is selling. In a concurrent report, Barclays warned that "if this transaction dries up secondary liquidity for private credit assets (or proves that the bid is only there for higher quality assets), it could be negative for other BDCs exploring portfolio sales."

In retrospect, this is precisely when the "Margin Call moment" of the private credit sector happened, because what happened next would make the market's head spin.

And unfortunately for Blue Owl, while the firm's catastrophic practices and financial engineering was indeed the snowflake that started the avalanche in the broader private credit sector, it has now boomeranged on the company itself and may have well led to its demise when two months after desperately seeking to avoid gating redemptions, the private credit giant announced it will in fact limit redemptions from two of its private credit funds after facing a historic surge in withdrawal requests that is unprecedented among major firms in the $1.8 trillion market.

Redemption requests in Blue Owl's marquee $36 billion Credit Income Corp. fund, one of the industry’s largest, soared to 21.9% in the three months ended March 31, according to an investor letter first reported by Bloomberg, up from "only" 5.2% in the prior period. But it was the smaller Blue Owl Technology Income Corp, which was at the center of the February turmoil, that was the real shock after its shareholders asked for a shocking 40.7% back, compared with 15.4% three months earlier, according to a separate letter. 

Both funds had previously met the requests in excess of its 5% tender offer. This time, though, Blue Owl - whose actions sparked the crisis that is now sweeping across pricvate credit - said it would join industry peers in capping redemptions at that level, “in accordance with the fund structure, reflecting our commitment to balancing the interests of both tendering and remaining shareholders.”

For the bigger fund, OCIC, that amounts to $988 million of redemptions honored and about $3.2 billion remaining in the fund, while for OTIC it means redeeming $179 million and keeping roughly $1 billion of investors’ cash, according to Bloomberg.

Craig Packer, Blue Owl’s co-president, said in an investor update that he believed the uptick in redemptions reflected a “period of heightened negative sentiment toward the asset class that has intensified as peers have reported tender results”.

And why would their tender results be intensified one wonders? Would it have something to do with that pinnacle of financial engineering where Blue Owl dumped many of its best loans to a related entity? Maybe Craig thinks that his investors are all idiots, but as he just found out, they may be far smarter than him.

“While we believe market perception has driven elevated tender activity, underlying credit fundamentals across our portfolio have remained resilient,” he added. “We continue to observe a meaningful disconnect between the public dialogue on private credit and the underlying trends in our portfolio.”

In the letters, OCIC said 90% of its shareholders chose not to tender, reflecting concentrated withdrawal demands, which means it was driven by institutions not retail investors who have been frequently blamed for all the ills plaguing private credit.. OTIC said its redemption pressure “was amplified by the fund’s more concentrated shareholder base, particularly within certain wealth channels and regions, and its specialized investment mandate.”

Both Blue Owl funds, which have returned more than 9% annualized since inception (not all too different from how Bernie Madoff generated double digits returns until one day his ponzi scheme collapsed), said they’re in a “strong position” to meet the 5% redemption requests and future tenders. OCIC and OTIC had $11.3 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively, across cash, available borrowing and liquid Level 2 assets as of the end of February, according to the letters.

While Blue Owl joins industry peers including Apollo Global, Ares Management and BlackRock in sticking to their redemption threshold on non-traded business development companies, the staggering magnitude of the requests underscores how Blue Owl has found itself squarely in the middle of worries about private credit.

The limitation on outflows highlights the risks to individual investors who had flocked to so-called non-traded private credit funds over the past three years in periods of stress. Those wealthy individuals had been promised access to higher-yielding investments in exchange for limited liquidity. Now they are regretting it. 

Private credit asset managers have diverged in how they have dealt with redemption requests, with some going to great lengths to cash out investors, while others have stuck to their limit. Still, no major manager has disclosed facing the percentage that Blue Owl’s BDCs were asked to pay back.

And with Blue Owl's private credit business now effectively in wind down mode, and mothballing the entire private credit industry, one wonders where so many crappy small and medium (mostly tech) companies will get the funding to exist. But before that, one wonders more just how wrong Goldman's analysis is that a private credit crisis won't impact the broader economy. We'll find out very soon. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:35

CEO Of Largest Public Hospital System Says He's Ready To Replace Radiologists With AI

CEO Of Largest Public Hospital System Says He's Ready To Replace Radiologists With AI

By Marty Stempniak of Radiology Business,

The chief executive of America’s largest public hospital system says he is prepared to start replacing radiologists with artificial intelligence in some circumstances, once the regulatory landscape catches up. 

Mitchell H. Katz, MD, president and CEO of NYC Health + Hospitals, recently spoke during a panel discussion held by Crain’s New York Business. The trained internal medicine specialist noted how AI is increasingly being used to interpret mammograms and X-rays. 

This presents an opportunity to save on how much hospitals spend on radiologists, who have become more costly amid rising demand for imaging, Crain’s reported Thursday. 

“We could replace a great deal of radiologists with AI at this moment, if we are ready to do the regulatory challenge,” Katz said at the forum, held on March 25. 

Katz—who has led the 11-hospital organization since 2018—said he sees great potential for AI to increase access to breast cancer screening. Hospitals could potentially produce “major savings” by letting the technology handle first reads, with radiologists then double-checking any abnormal screenings. 

Fellow panelist David Lubarsky, MD, MBA, president and CEO of the Westchester Medical Center Health Network, said his system is already seeing great success in deploying such technology. The AI Westchester uses misses very few breast cancers and is “actually better than human beings,” he told the audience.

“For women who aren’t considered high risk, if the test comes back negative, it’s wrong only about 3 times out of 10,000,” Lubarsky said. 

Katz asked fellow hospital CEOs if there is any reason why they shouldn’t be pushing for changes to New York state regulations, allowing AI to read images “without a radiologist,” Crain’s reported. In this scenario, rads could then provide second opinions, if AI flags any images as abnormal. Sandra Scott, MD, CEO of the One Brooklyn Health, a small hospital facing tight margins, agreed with this line of thinking, according to Crain’s. 

“I mean, I’m in charge of a safety-net institution. It would be a game-changer,” Scott said about AI being used to replace rads. 

The discussion comes after Dario Amodei, PhD, CEO of Anthropic, recently made similar statements about artificial intelligence replacing rads. In a podcast interview, he falsely stated that AI has taken over the specialty’s core function, allowing doctors to focus more on the human side of the job. Radiologists roundly criticized Amodei’s remarks. Mohammed Suhail, MD, a San Diego-based rad with North Coast Imaging, said the same about Katz’s comments on Monday. 

“Undeniable proof that confidently uninformed hospital administrators are a danger to patients: easily duped by AI companies that are nowhere near capable of providing patient care,” Suhail told Radiology Business. “Any attempt to implement AI-only reads would immediately result in patient harm and death, and only someone with zero understanding of radiology would say something so naive. But in some sense, they’re correct: Hospitals are happy to cut costs even if it means patient harm, as long as it’s legal.”

* * * 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:20

Iran To Attack Logistical Hubs In Israel, Gulf After Its Tallest Bridge Destroyed

Iran To Attack Logistical Hubs In Israel, Gulf After Its Tallest Bridge Destroyed

Earlier we reported there are signs that the US and Israel are expanding attacks on Iran civilian infrastructure, after reports emerged Thursday that fresh airstrikes hit a highway bridge connecting Tehran and Karaj, according to Fars News Agency. Several people were injured, and multiple areas of Karaj were also struck. The bridge was actually just constructed, having been inaugurated earlier this year.

Fars identified it as the B1 bridge, dubbed the highest bridge in the Middle East. Tehran also continues to get pummeled hard, amid reports that the prior 24 hours saw the biggest wave of Iranian missiles and cluster munitions on Tel Aviv to date. In response to the bridge attack, Iran state media says the country's armed forces are preparing a retaliatory escalation, with plans to hit Israel's core logistical backbone.

Tehran's strategy focuses on crippling three critical arteries that sustain Israel's war machine, per state media reports reference in Newsquawk.

At the top of the list are key north-south rail chokepoints, among them the Yarkon Bridge - which reportedly handles the vast majority of heavy IDF military transport. There's also the Jezreel tunnel - described as the sole route for moving fuel and ammunition from Port of Haifa inland. 

At the same time, Iran is eyeing the alternative logistics lifeline: the overland corridor running from Jebel Ali through Saudi Arabia and Jordan toward Israel.

* * *
ReadyWise Spring Sale - ends April 10. Stock up.

* * *

With maritime routes under threat, this desert supply chain has become increasingly vital to Israeli military logistics. Also, from Tehran's perspective, these locations highly vulnerable to precision strikes that could disrupt fuel flows and strain Israel's air power.

Additional targets reportedly include high-value infrastructure such as the Port of Haifa itself (Haifa's oil refinery has already been hit a couple times), which remains the country's the central hub of trade and maritime logistics, and the Rehout station, a key distribution point funneling cargo toward active war fronts.

In listing out these target locations Iran is strongly signaling a shift toward systemic disruption aimed at paralyzing logistics and fracturing supply lines - just as Washington and Tel Aviv are doing to the Islamic Republic.

Gulf targets have also been added to the list, after on Thursday the IRGC said it initiated an attack on an Amazon Cloud computing center in Bahrain.

Fars has cited the "destruction of the enemy's scientific and technological centers in the [Gulf] region, with a focus on Dubai.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:05

Iran To Attack Logistical Hubs In Israel, Gulf After Its Tallest Bridge Destroyed

Iran To Attack Logistical Hubs In Israel, Gulf After Its Tallest Bridge Destroyed

Earlier we reported there are signs that the US and Israel are expanding attacks on Iran civilian infrastructure, after reports emerged Thursday that fresh airstrikes hit a highway bridge connecting Tehran and Karaj, according to Fars News Agency. Several people were injured, and multiple areas of Karaj were also struck. The bridge was actually just constructed, having been inaugurated earlier this year.

Fars identified it as the B1 bridge, dubbed the highest bridge in the Middle East. Tehran also continues to get pummeled hard, amid reports that the prior 24 hours saw the biggest wave of Iranian missiles and cluster munitions on Tel Aviv to date. In response to the bridge attack, Iran state media says the country's armed forces are preparing a retaliatory escalation, with plans to hit Israel's core logistical backbone.

Tehran's strategy focuses on crippling three critical arteries that sustain Israel's war machine, per state media reports reference in Newsquawk.

At the top of the list are key north-south rail chokepoints, among them the Yarkon Bridge - which reportedly handles the vast majority of heavy IDF military transport. There's also the Jezreel tunnel - described as the sole route for moving fuel and ammunition from Port of Haifa inland. 

At the same time, Iran is eyeing the alternative logistics lifeline: the overland corridor running from Jebel Ali through Saudi Arabia and Jordan toward Israel.

* * *
ReadyWise Spring Sale - ends April 10. Stock up.

* * *

With maritime routes under threat, this desert supply chain has become increasingly vital to Israeli military logistics. Also, from Tehran's perspective, these locations highly vulnerable to precision strikes that could disrupt fuel flows and strain Israel's air power.

Additional targets reportedly include high-value infrastructure such as the Port of Haifa itself (Haifa's oil refinery has already been hit a couple times), which remains the country's the central hub of trade and maritime logistics, and the Rehout station, a key distribution point funneling cargo toward active war fronts.

In listing out these target locations Iran is strongly signaling a shift toward systemic disruption aimed at paralyzing logistics and fracturing supply lines - just as Washington and Tel Aviv are doing to the Islamic Republic.

Gulf targets have also been added to the list, after on Thursday the IRGC said it initiated an attack on an Amazon Cloud computing center in Bahrain.

Fars has cited the "destruction of the enemy's scientific and technological centers in the [Gulf] region, with a focus on Dubai.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 12:05

Trump Puts State Farm, Other Insurers On Notice Over Treatment Of California Wildfire Victims

Trump Puts State Farm, Other Insurers On Notice Over Treatment Of California Wildfire Victims

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on March 31 told State Farm and other insurers to “get their act together” after meeting with California politicians and hearing about the difficulties facing the victims of last year’s wildfires.

A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area of Los Angeles County, Calif., on Jan. 8, 2025. Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

Two areas outside Los Angeles were devastated by wildfires in January 2025. In the Palisades fire, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported that 6,831 structures were lost, 973 were damaged, and 12 people died.

When combined with the nearby Eaton fire, which ignited in Altadena, north of Los Angeles, on Jan. 7, 2025, and claimed 18 lives, the two fires destroyed more than 12,000 structures.

“I have just met with various Political Representatives of the tragedy that took place in California concerning the burning of thousands of once beautiful homes,” Trump wrote in a March 31 post on Truth Social.

“It was brought to my attention that the Insurance Companies, in particular, State Farm, have been absolutely horrible to people that have been paying them large Premiums for years, only to find that when tragedy struck, these horrendous Companies were not there to help!”

Trump said he had asked Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin to give him a list of the insurance companies that acted “swiftly, courageously, and bravely” and those that were “particularly bad.”

The California Department of Insurance said in a June 2025 statement that Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara had launched a formal investigation into State Farm’s handling of thousands of insurance claims.

“Some troubling patterns that my staff will investigate include the frequent reassignment of multiple adjusters with little continuity in communication, inconsistent management of similar claims, and inadequate record-keeping or information-sharing among claims teams,” Lara said at the time. “These issues create unnecessary stress, prolong recovery, and erode trust. I urge any wildfire survivor facing delayed payments, claim disputes, multiple adjusters, smoke damage issues, or any other problems to file a formal complaint with my Department.”

On Nov. 13, 2025, Los Angeles County said that it had launched an investigation into State Farm’s handling of insurance claims filed by policyholders affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires, focused on potential violations of California’s Unfair Competition Law.

A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire as it burns homes on the Pacific Coast Highway during a powerful windstorm in Los Angeles on Jan. 8, 2025. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

“The investigation ... follows growing complaints from residents about delays, underpayments, and denials of legitimate wildfire claims,” the office of the county counsel said in a statement at the time.

“The County has heard loud and clear from wildfire survivors that State Farm’s delays are standing in the way of rebuilding,“ Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Kathryn Barger said. ”Fair and timely insurance payments aren’t a privilege; they’re a right. State Farm must act quickly so survivors can rebuild their homes and their lives.”

In a Sept. 30, 2025, statement about the California fires, State Farm said it had served customers with more than 13,500 claims and issued $5.7 billion in payments “to families whose homes, cars, and property were damaged or destroyed.”

“Because many claims, repairs, and rebuilds are still underway, we expect total payments could reach $7 billion,” State Farm said. “Our leadership position in the California homeowners insurance marketplace means State Farm General Insurance Company—the State Farm company that provides homeowners insurance in California—insured more people impacted by this disaster than anyone else.”

The Epoch Times reached out to State Farm, and they referred us to the above statement.

Allan Stein contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:45

Trump Puts State Farm, Other Insurers On Notice Over Treatment Of California Wildfire Victims

Trump Puts State Farm, Other Insurers On Notice Over Treatment Of California Wildfire Victims

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on March 31 told State Farm and other insurers to “get their act together” after meeting with California politicians and hearing about the difficulties facing the victims of last year’s wildfires.

A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area of Los Angeles County, Calif., on Jan. 8, 2025. Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

Two areas outside Los Angeles were devastated by wildfires in January 2025. In the Palisades fire, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported that 6,831 structures were lost, 973 were damaged, and 12 people died.

When combined with the nearby Eaton fire, which ignited in Altadena, north of Los Angeles, on Jan. 7, 2025, and claimed 18 lives, the two fires destroyed more than 12,000 structures.

“I have just met with various Political Representatives of the tragedy that took place in California concerning the burning of thousands of once beautiful homes,” Trump wrote in a March 31 post on Truth Social.

“It was brought to my attention that the Insurance Companies, in particular, State Farm, have been absolutely horrible to people that have been paying them large Premiums for years, only to find that when tragedy struck, these horrendous Companies were not there to help!”

Trump said he had asked Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin to give him a list of the insurance companies that acted “swiftly, courageously, and bravely” and those that were “particularly bad.”

The California Department of Insurance said in a June 2025 statement that Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara had launched a formal investigation into State Farm’s handling of thousands of insurance claims.

“Some troubling patterns that my staff will investigate include the frequent reassignment of multiple adjusters with little continuity in communication, inconsistent management of similar claims, and inadequate record-keeping or information-sharing among claims teams,” Lara said at the time. “These issues create unnecessary stress, prolong recovery, and erode trust. I urge any wildfire survivor facing delayed payments, claim disputes, multiple adjusters, smoke damage issues, or any other problems to file a formal complaint with my Department.”

On Nov. 13, 2025, Los Angeles County said that it had launched an investigation into State Farm’s handling of insurance claims filed by policyholders affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires, focused on potential violations of California’s Unfair Competition Law.

A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire as it burns homes on the Pacific Coast Highway during a powerful windstorm in Los Angeles on Jan. 8, 2025. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

“The investigation ... follows growing complaints from residents about delays, underpayments, and denials of legitimate wildfire claims,” the office of the county counsel said in a statement at the time.

“The County has heard loud and clear from wildfire survivors that State Farm’s delays are standing in the way of rebuilding,“ Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Kathryn Barger said. ”Fair and timely insurance payments aren’t a privilege; they’re a right. State Farm must act quickly so survivors can rebuild their homes and their lives.”

In a Sept. 30, 2025, statement about the California fires, State Farm said it had served customers with more than 13,500 claims and issued $5.7 billion in payments “to families whose homes, cars, and property were damaged or destroyed.”

“Because many claims, repairs, and rebuilds are still underway, we expect total payments could reach $7 billion,” State Farm said. “Our leadership position in the California homeowners insurance marketplace means State Farm General Insurance Company—the State Farm company that provides homeowners insurance in California—insured more people impacted by this disaster than anyone else.”

The Epoch Times reached out to State Farm, and they referred us to the above statement.

Allan Stein contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:45

Gulf Energy Shock Spreads To Global Plastics As War Sparks Force Majeure Wave

Gulf Energy Shock Spreads To Global Plastics As War Sparks Force Majeure Wave

Building on our earlier "Global Demand Destruction" note, which mapped how the Gulf energy shock is spreading globally and the immediate effects of rationing, price controls, and fuel shortages, another second-order disruption is quickly emerging: supply chain disruptions in critical plastic feedstocks.

Plastics are core to the modern economy, and a troubling new Bloomberg report indicates that several producers of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) have declared force majeure, as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily disrupted.

For context, MEG and PTA are the two primary feedstocks used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester fibers. These petrochemicals are critical to the production of everyday consumer goods that make life in the developed world convenient, including plastic bottles, food packaging, clothing, home furnishings, and a wide range of consumer and industrial goods.

More specifically, MEG is used in the production of polyester yarn, polyester staple fiber, PET resin, and PET film. It also plays a critical role in antifreeze, coolants, adhesives, coatings, and enamels.

In other words, MEG and PTA are foundational petrochemical building blocks for the modern economy. Any sustained disruption to these flows would be detrimental to the global economy.

Which brings us to the supply alarm bells already beginning to ring, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  1. Oriental Union Chemical Corp. warned US customers it would temporarily suspend MEG shipments for early March. The suspensions would persist until conditions stabilize, the Taipei-based company wrote in a customer letter. After March 11, shipments to customers continued as normal, with monthly pricing adjusted to reflect higher crude costs: Spokesperson Daniel Yu Ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol sales are mainly for customers on long-term contracts, he added. As disruptions mount across the industry, Taiwan has moved to boost capacity for ethylene output, according to a report by the semi-official Central News Agency.

  2. Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co. declared force majeure "for affected contracts/orders/delivery obligations," according to a letter sent to US customers. The Chinese maker of PET and PTA flagged disruptions stemming from the Hormuz shutdown.

  3. Indorama Ventures said in an early-March letter from its US and Canada regional sales team that it would raise prices on PET resin by 10 cents a pound across all businesses, citing higher feedstock costs and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. The company said in a letter sent the following week that it would add an additional temporary 5-cent war surcharge. The company has also declared forces majeures on shipments from two PET units in Europe, S&P Global's Chemweek reported.

  4. Saudi Basic Industries Corp. last week told customers it would invoke force majeure for MEG and diethylene glycol. The duration of the disruptions "cannot be reasonably determined given the evolving nature of the circumstances," the company said, citing "unforeseen supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz."

The market response has already seen a surge in US spot prices for ethylene, methanol, and polymer-grade propylene. This will likely translate into higher prices for everyday consumer goods, including trash bags, cleaning products, tires, food containers, and more.

Last week, Dow CEO Jim Fitterling warned that Gulf petrochemical flows could take upwards of nine months to normalize if the Hormuz chokepoint were to open up in the near term.

"Snacks, frozen foods and fresh protein products will be impacted first," EGC Consulting CEO Jonathan Quinn warned, adding, "The potato chip bag — that alone is going to see an increase of a nickel, a dime. Everything you buy is going to be impacted."

Let's remind readers that China is the world's largest plastics consumer and producer, as per OECD data. Any supply disruption would ripple through the industrial base of the world's second-largest economy.

Separately, JPMorgan analysts mapped out how the energy shockwave from the Iran war spreads across the world, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US - primarily California.

Source

President Trump's speech on Wednesday night sparked a global risk-off move because, as Goldman analyst Peter Bartlett explained, the president "was more escalatory than not." This suggests the global energy shock is likely to worsen (unless Iran capitulates) in the weeks ahead, with plastics emerging as the next major problem facing the global economy.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:30

April Fools And The Last Supper

April Fools And The Last Supper

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Wednesday saw the unusual occurrence of three Anglosphere heads of government delivering televised addresses to their respective nations within 24 hours of each other. When news broke that Australia’s PM Albanese, Britain’s PM Starmer and US President Trump would all be interrupting regular programming to speak to their people, reactions ranged from jubilant speculation that the war is about to end all the way through to nervousness that Operation Iranian Freedom was about to be announced.

Judging by the price action in markets, the latter was certainly seen as the less likely of the two as stocks rose sharply across Asia, EMEA and the Americas, while Brent crude briefly dipped below the $100/bbl mark. Singapore gasoil spot prices fell by 22.7% - it’s largest daily move (up or down) of the war so far.

Those moves are now revealed as an April Fool’s rally as Donald Trump’s address to the nation has sent oil bid, bond yields surging, high-beta FX lower and early rallies in Asian stocks have now turned deeply negative. Trump declined to announce that the USA is packing up and going home, instead declaring that “we are going to finish the job.” He said that the US owed it to 13 soldiers who have died in the conflict to complete the mission by ensuring that Iran would not have the capability to obtain a nuclear weapon, that it would no longer have the ability to project power beyond its borders, and by severely degrading its drone and missile stocks and the industrial base used to produce those conventional weapons.

Trump says there is still time for Iran to make a deal to end the war but that the US is willing to leave without a deal and will eliminate key targets on their way out, pointing specifically to Iran’s electricity plants. He reiterated his previously expressed timeline of 2-3 weeks to conclude operations in Iran, but markets will be nervous about that as those timelines have a tendency to stretch.

Critically, Trump also seemed to confirm rumors that the US is willing to leave without first securing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, instead leaving that task to other countries (though he says the US will help) on the justification that they are far more reliant on Persian Gulf oil than the US is. Trump said that the Strait will ultimately re-open naturally when the war concludes as Iran will rely on oil sales to rebuild, but in the meantime he advises other countries to buy their oil and gas from the United States.

The market optimism of the last 24 hours was always likely to be misplaced. The subtext of Trump’s remarks is that NATO and the GCC states must get involved in the war to re-open the Strait, or else suffer the consequences of US withdrawal for the world economy. Some – like the UAE – have expressed willingness, but most have not. If nobody steps up the war may grind on for longer (bad), escalate (worse), or the US may simply leave with Hormuz unresolved (worst). While the latter is a clear and present danger for world hydrocarbon markets and civilisation in general, it would also be a heavy blow for US hegemony and reserve currency status as American tactical victories sum to strategic defeat and Iran continues to operate the Strait as a toll road settled in CNY.

Hours before Trump’s address, Australian viewers were left somewhat nonplussed by their Prime Minister’s primetime appearance. Given that Prime Ministerial addresses to the nation are incredibly rare, Australians were perhaps bracing for some grave Menzian announcement (“My fellow Australians. It is my melancholy duty to inform you...”) but were instead wished a happy Easter holiday period, warned that the months ahead may be hard and told to conserve fuel by taking public transport and resisting the urge to stockpile. Some commentators have cheekily observed that this one could have been an email, but in the aftermath of Trump’s address Albanese’s well wishes for the Easter holidays are feeling a bit more like the last supper as speculation mounts that Australia could be headed for fuel rationing as early as next week.

Keir Starmer struck a slightly different tone to his antipodean counterpart by focusing more directly on Britain’s efforts to re-establish freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Starmer noted that he had convened captains of industry from the shipping, finance and insurance sectors earlier in the week at Downing Street, and that they had told him the issue in Hormuz is not one of insurance, but of safety and security of passage. Starmer says that foreign ministers of 35 nations will meet later this week to explore diplomatic and political avenues to end the war and re-open the Strait, to be followed by a meeting of military leaders.

Starmer was at pains to reiterate his message that this was not Britain’s war. The PM is currently between a rock and a hard place because involvement in the war upsets anti-war constituencies at home and draws the ire of the Iranian regime, while not becoming involved draws the ire of the US President. It is becoming very difficult to straddle these two imperatives as Trump tells NATO allies “I broke it, you bought it.”

As a consequence of being faced with only bad choices, Britain has had a muddled approach of refusing US access to bases and then granting it, delaying deployment of HMS Dragon to the Eastern Mediterranean and then deploying it, and refusing requests to assist with naval escorts in the Strait - but is surely now forced to consider it. Combining this indecision with Spanish, French and Italian refusals to allow US access to bases, and suggestions that the war runs contrary to international law, the European relationship with the USA suddenly looks more strained than ever.

This has severe implications for NATO, which Keir Starmer noted that Britain remains committed to, but Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have recently said the US may consider withdrawing from. This in turn has implications for the flow of US aid to Ukraine, where the United States may tell the EU “your problem now”, and also for the status of Greenland. Denmark and the EU were able to defuse Trump’s assertive stance on controlling Greenland last year by providing assurances that the US would have access to bases as it needs, but now that it has been refused access to bases in Europe for the Iran war, everything is back on the table.

There is a reshuffling of strategic dependencies now occurring in real time. Starmer used his address to tell his people that Brexit had done deep damage to the British economy, and that Britain now had to draw closer to the EU to strengthen its economic and security relationships in its immediate geography. The subtext here is that Britain will pivot to the EU from the US, which puts the ‘Special Relationship’ on life support alongside NATO.

This has implications elsewhere, especially in Australia where plans to acquire nuclear-propelled submarines rely on cooperation with and between Britain and the United States. As many Australian defence commentators have argued in the recent past, there is no Plan B if AUKUS falls apart, and Australia is already faced with a submarine capability gap as it’s 1990s-era Collins class submarines are looking very long in the tooth.

Given its own geography, and the fact that it is so far down the AUKUS road, Australia may have no choice but to stick by the USA while other allies coalesce around Europe or chase Mark Carney’s ‘variable geometry’ system of alliances down the path of incongruent current accounts. Might we see an Australian Hobart class in the vanguard to answer Trump’s call to re-open the Strait?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 11:15

Tesla Delivers 358,023 Vehicles In Q1, Missing Wall Street Expectations For Second Consecutive Quarter

Tesla Delivers 358,023 Vehicles In Q1, Missing Wall Street Expectations For Second Consecutive Quarter

Tesla reported a disappointing first quarter, delivering 358,023 vehicles worldwide, falling short of Wall Street expectations of about 372,000, according to Bloomberg-compiled estimates and the company’s own release.

The miss marks Tesla’s second consecutive quarter below forecasts, underscoring continued pressure on its core automotive business as it navigates slowing electric-vehicle demand and a more competitive global market.

Despite the shortfall, deliveries were still up 6.3% year over year, benefiting from an easier comparison period when production of the Model Y was temporarily paused across multiple factories and the company faced consumer backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk. Even so, the results highlight the growing challenges Tesla faces in sustaining growth in its main revenue-generating segment, even as investor focus has increasingly shifted toward its longer-term bets on artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics.

As Bloomberg noted this week, a slower pace of growth may persist. Demand for EVs is cooling globally, US buyers no longer benefit from federal tax credits, and Tesla’s lineup is narrowing as Models S and X are phased out, all while competition intensifies.

“If they can show that there’s stability in the numbers without the tax credit — and they can, at least with the delivery number — I think that that would be a win,” said Gene Munster.

Notably, just days before reporting, Tesla had circulated a company-compiled consensus estimate suggesting deliveries of around 365,645 vehicles for the quarter.

That figure was based on forecasts from a wide range of sell-side firms, including Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Mizuho, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPMorgan, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

At the time, Tesla emphasized that it does not endorse analysts’ projections, noting that the figures represent aggregated estimates rather than company guidance, with only prior quarters reflecting actual reported results.

Elon Musk said in a post on X on Wednesday that orders for the Model S and Model X have effectively ended, though some remaining inventory is still available. He added that there will be an official event to mark the close of the era, noting that he has a deep appreciation for those vehicles.

 “We will have an official ceremony to mark the ending of an era. I love those cars,” Elon Musk said at the time. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 09:35

Globalstar Soars On Amazon Buyout Report Amid Satellite Constellation Race

Globalstar Soars On Amazon Buyout Report Amid Satellite Constellation Race

Globalstar shares surged 12% in premarket trading in New York...

...marking their biggest jump in nearly five months, after the Financial Times reported overnight that Amazon is in talks to acquire the satellite operator, a move that would certainly intensify the race to build satellite constellations. 

The FT cited people familiar with the Amazon-Globalstar talks and said both sides are still negotiating over "some of the complexities," including the fact that Apple owns a 20% stake in the satellite communications company, which operates 24 satellites in low Earth orbit, arranged in a Walker-24 configuration, and sells services for emergency messaging, asset tracking, remote voice/data links, and IoT connectivity in places where cell coverage is weak or nonexistent.

Globalstar powers Apple's emergency satellite feature on iPhones, but that system is far more limited than the high-speed broadband network offered by SpaceX's Starlink.

Amazon has deployed around 200 internet satellites into orbit as part of its Leo program, formerly called Project Kuiper. This is dwarfed by the more than 10,000 active satellites operated by Starlink, which provides high-speed internet to more than 10 million customers worldwide.

The rationale for Amazon buying Globalstar's older, higher-orbit satellite constellation was not immediately explained in the FT report or by its sources familiar with the deal talks. 

But our view is that a potential buyout of Globalstar could give Amazon a faster path to more infrastructure, customers, and operational know-how to scale its Leo program and become a real competitor to Starlink, which is years ahead of any competition and even nation-states. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 09:15

Democrats Ask Judge To Block Parts Of Trump's Election Order

Democrats Ask Judge To Block Parts Of Trump's Election Order

Authored by Kimberley Hayek and Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Democrats asked a federal judge Wednesday to block parts of President Donald Trump’s executive order on federal elections.

The lawsuit challenges Trump’s directive, signed a day earlier, that will create a list of eligible voters in every state and prohibit the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) from sending absentee ballots to those not included on the list. The order, titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” directs the Department of Homeland Security and Social Security Administration to conduct voter information collection.

Trump said the executive order was needed because “the cheating on mail-in voting is legendary. It’s horrible what has been going on.”

“The right to vote in Federal elections is reserved exclusively for citizens of the United States under the Constitution and Federal law,” the order reads. “The Federal Government has an unavoidable duty under Article II of the Constitution of the United States to enforce Federal law, which includes preventing violations of Federal criminal law and maintaining public confidence in election outcomes.”

Trump signed the order after Congress recently failed to pass the SAVE America Act, which would have imposed voter ID and election integrity requirements. Administration officials described the order as a necessary step to restore public confidence ahead of the midterm elections in November.

White House staff secretary Will Scharf said the provisions in the order would prevent past problems from being repeated.

“We believe, combined, the measures in this order will help secure elections in the future and ensure the many abuses of our elections in the past are not repeated in future elections,” Scharf said.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick echoed the goal.

“The fundamentals of our democracy are built on voter integrity,” he said during a signing ceremony.

The order reiterates that only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote by mail, and that to enforce the relevant federal statutes, lists of voters are to be verified by the Department of Homeland Security in coordination with the Social Security Administration, “consistent with applicable law, including but not limited to the Privacy Act of 1974.”

The order directs USPS to send ballots only to verified individuals included in the lists, with unique bar codes applied to each envelope—one per voter—to facilitate tracking and audits.

The U.S. attorney general and the heads of various executive departments and agencies were directed to take steps to deter and address noncompliance with federal law by taking steps such as withholding federal funds from noncompliant state and local governments. Evidence that state or local election officials or other individuals of entities have violated existing federal laws is to be referred to the Department of Justice for investigation, the order said.

The Democratic Party campaign organizations that filed the lawsuit contend the order exceeds presidential authority and disrupts state election processes. They seek an immediate injunction to halt enforcement of parts of the order.

The legal complaint states that Trump “has tried again and again to rewrite election rules for his own perceived partisan advantage,” and that he wants to ban mail voting, “a favorite scapegoat for his 2020 electoral defeat,” and impose other restrictions on voting.

The executive order “dramatically restricts the ability of Americans to vote by mail, impinging on traditional state authority,” largely by requiring the USPS “to take actions unrelated to the agency’s statutory mandate that run roughshod over established protections for voters who rely on the mail to exercise their fundamental right to vote.”

This instruction violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Privacy Act, which require agencies to follow existing law and forbid the use of federal records unless previously authorized under federal law, the complaint says.

The order would unlawfully take steps to create a “national citizenship registry” and require that “state citizenship lists” be shared with states within 60 days of each federal election, the complaint says.

The plaintiffs in this case—the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Governors Association, and the Democratic leaders of the U.S. House and Senate—urged the U.S. District Court in the nation’s capital to act quickly because federal elections are soon approaching.

The plaintiffs asked the court to block the sections of the executive order that mandate the creation of state citizenship lists and require the USPS to establish uniform standards for mail-in or absentee ballots. They also asked the court to block the parts of the order requiring the Department of Homeland Security, the Social Security Administration, and the USPS to coordinate with the Department of Commerce.

Democratic leaders reacted sharply to the executive order. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) called the order “a blatant, unconstitutional abuse of power.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, vowed to sue over the order.

“The President wants to limit which Americans can participate in our democracy,” Newsom’s press office wrote on Tuesday on X. “California will see him in court.”

When signing the order, Trump said he anticipated legal challenges.

“I don’t know how it could be challenged. It could probably be challenged if you find a rogue judge,” he said. “We will appeal if it is, but I don’t see how anyone else could challenge it.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 08:46

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Continues As Job Cuts Tumble, Claims Near Record Lows

'No Hire, No Fire' Economy Continues As Job Cuts Tumble, Claims Near Record Lows

U.S.-based employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, up 25% from 48,307 cuts announced in February.

It is down 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“Removing the wave of federal layoffs announced in February and March of last year, job cut announcements in 2026 are closely following the pattern of 2025. Last year it was Government, Retail, and Technology. This year, it’s Technology, Transportation, and Healthcare,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

And affirming this relatively low job cuts level, the number of American filing for jobless benefits for the first time tumbled back to just 202k (from 211k) continuing to hover near record lows...

Michigan and Georgia saw the biggest declines in initial jobless claims while Texas and Oregon saw the biggest increases...

At the sector level, Technology dominated, announcing 18,720 job cuts in March for a total of 52,050 in 2026. That is an increase of 40% from the 37,097 cuts in this sector announced in the same period last year. It is the highest year-to-date total for the sector since 2023 when 102,391 Technology cuts were recorded.

More layoffs are likely to come from Technology companies in 2026. Last month’s total was made up primarily on a workforce reduction at Dell Inc., according to their latest annual filing. Oracle reportedly began layoffs late last month, though the company has not released a total figure. Meta, meanwhile, is undergoing layoffs in its Reality Labs division as it focuses on pivoting to artificial intelligence.

“Companies are shifting budgets toward AI investments at the expense of jobs. The actual replacing of roles can be seen in Technology companies, where AI can replace coding functions. Other industries are testing the limits of this new technology, and while it can’t replace jobs completely, it is costing jobs,” said Challenger.

“One thing that is clear is that AI is changing work and the workforce. Workers will need to be more strategic as they lead AI-powered agents that handle increasingly complex tasks. Human workers will need strong decision making and judgment skills in the age of AI,” he added.

Continuing jobless claims ticked up modestly from 1.816mm to 1.841mm Americans, but remains well below the 1.9mm Maginot Line...

The 'no hire, no fire' economy continues to chug along with yesterday's Manufacturing PMIs and Retail Sales signaling the economic pain so many expected has been delayed... for now.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/02/2026 - 08:35

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