Zero Hedge

Industry Leaders Warn Chinese EV Imports Will Undercut Canada's Auto Sector, Bring Major Security Risks

Industry Leaders Warn Chinese EV Imports Will Undercut Canada's Auto Sector, Bring Major Security Risks

Authored by Paul Rowan Brian via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A number of industry leaders and policy experts are warning that the government’s permission of importing Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) into Canada at low tariff rates will undermine Canada’s auto sector and cause a number of substantial national security risks.

Models stand next to a latest EV car from Chinese automaker BYD showcased at the Auto China 2026 in Beijing on April 25, 2026. Andy Wong/AP Photo

The warnings came in testimony before the House Committee on Industry and Technology, where the speakers said that Ottawa’s quota-based access to Chinese EV makers will make Canada vulnerable to unfair trade practices from Beijing, hollow out the country’s already-struggling auto industry, and bring along a host of security risks associated with data collection and surveillance.

“Let’s be clear, this is not the approach Canada wanted,” Michael Kovrig, head of the Global Network for Strategic Effects, said while testifying May 4 before the committee.

EV Deal

The import of Chinese-made EVs comes under the terms of an agreement between Ottawa and Beijing signed in January of this year that allows the import of up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs in the first year at a tariff rate of 6.1 percent, down from 100 percent.

Ottawa has indicated the quota could rise to approximately 70,000 vehicles per year over the next five years.

As part of the agreement, Beijing moved to cut tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports, slashing tariffs from 84–100 percent on Canadian canola products to 15 percent and relaxing restrictions on other products including seafood and peas.

Ottawa also said it expects China will invest in the Canadian auto sector and possibly set up auto manufacturing inside Canada as part of the wider agreement.

Canada opened permits for Chinese-made EVs on March 1, under which 24,500 will be allowed until August under the 6.1 percent tariff rate. Permits are issued by Global Affairs Canada and last 60 days before expiry. Importers are required to be Canada-based automakers or agents of them, and vehicles must comply with Canadian safety standards.

Ottawa said it plans to review and potentially change how the import system works after the first six months.

‘Trifecta of Risks’

Kovrig said that allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada causes a “trifecta of risks,” which he described as creating “structural dependence” on China, along with “unfair competition [that] erodes industrial capacity” and imposing a “systemic pressure” on government policy going forward.

“The real question is not, ‘don’t we want cheaper EVs?’” Kovrig said. “It’s whether Canada wants to be a producer in the future auto economy, or merely a consumer market for vehicles produced by China’s industrial system.”

Kovrig’s concerns were echoed by Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association.

“There are no guardrails in this agreement to ensure a level-playing field for manufacturers that have invested in Canada, or to protect Canadians from cybersecurity risks,” Kingston told MPs.

Kingston added that demand for EVs is closely tied to government incentives rather than free-market forces, and that serious harm could be done to the North American auto supply chain.

“Demand for EVs is directly related to rebates, and we saw it when the previous federal government rebate went away, we saw demand for EVs decline quite significantly,” he said, adding that import of Chinese-made EVs “will undermine the auto sector and presents risks to the North American auto supply chain.”

Canada’s auto sector remains a major part of the economy and directly employs roughly 125,000 workers, the majority of whom are employed in Ontario. More than 90 percent of Canadian-made vehicles are exported to the United States.

Kingston also said that keeping access to the U.S. market is crucial for Canada and “there is no industry without U.S. access,” saying that opening up to Chinese imports could undermine North American integration.

In mid-January, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada’s deal with China was “problematic.” This was followed on Jan. 24 by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to put 100 percent tariffs on Canadian goods in response to the deal.

Controls

Several Liberal MPs on the committee asked questions about the economic and security issues related to importing Chinese-made EVs, stating that it could help Canadian consumers access more affordable vehicles and move Canada closer to climate goals.

For her part, Liberal MP Lisa Hepfner asked whether Canada could put conditions on Chinese firms, such as on domestic labour, security, and standards, in order for them to be allowed to import the vehicles.

Kingston said such an approach won’t work.

“If you say that you have to have a local supply chain and use local unionized labour, the response from a Chinese OEM [Original Equipment Manufacturer] is, ’thanks, but no thanks,'” he said.

“The moment they want more access, they will restrict our exports of canola. They'll come up with other reasons to leverage more access into the market. This is the Chinese trade playbook. You can see it in sector after sector in different countries,” he added.

Kovrig shared this view, saying that Beijing tends to use a quota as a “ratchet” to force more market access.

“What begins as a capped quota becomes a ratchet that only expands. Concentrated sectoral economic dependence also constricts federal policy-making autonomy,” he said.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] weaponizes technology, supply chains, and market access to coerce independence to its geopolitical agenda.”

He added that “forced labour” is also part of the Chinese EV supply chain and cited evidence from Sheffield Hallam University linking forced labour of China’s ethnic Uyghur population to key battery and EV production stages.

Kingston added that even if China were to build a factory in Canada, it would likely be a human rights and economic disaster.

“If they build a plant, they bring in labour from China. And as we’ve seen in Hungary, the conditions have been characterized as slave-like conditions,” he said, referring to a Chinese-operated factory in Hungary.

Benefits of EVs

Several industry leaders who testified before the committee said EVs would be a net positive for Canada.

Jeff Turner, director of Mobility at Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors, said EVs would help Canadians in various ways, including by bringing “almost $2,000 per year in fuel savings per household and reductions of GHG emissions and other emissions that have significant health impacts for Canadians.”

Cherith Sinasac of the Electro-Canada Foundation also emphasized her view of the positive role that EVs could have and said their origin is much less important than infrastructure readiness.

“Canada needs a strong long-term EV charging infrastructure strategy,” she said, adding that there must be a coordinated investment strategy by provinces and economic sectors.

“EVs and their battery storage have the potential to be a national energy asset for our grid,” Sinasac said.

Security Risks

Kingston and Kovrig both said that in addition to economic damage, bringing in Chinese-made EVs could pose security risks, including potential data access concerns and dangers to national security.

“China’s 2017 National Intelligence law compels any Chinese firm, including from overseas operations, to share data with Beijing on demand,” Kovrig said. “There’s no judicial review and no challenge mechanism.”

Kovrig described Chinese-made EVs as “a rolling computer with cameras” that are “state-linked data platforms.”

This echoed similar concerns from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who stated his opposition to allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada this past January, writing on X that such vehicles “function like roving surveillance systems on our streets [and] should not be allowed in Canada - collecting data, tracking Canadians and exposing us to a foreign regime.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 22:35

Figure CEO Says Humanoid Robots Could Soon Enter Homes For $600 A Month

Figure CEO Says Humanoid Robots Could Soon Enter Homes For $600 A Month

Figure's CEO told Sourcery's Molly O'Shea that the humanoid robotics company is preparing for a "near-term" push to bring humanoid robots into homes, where they would perform basic household tasks under a consumer subscription model that could cost "hundreds per month," similar to a car lease.

Molly O'Shea asked Figure CEO Brett Adcock:

"In the near term, what do you see as the first commercial application for these robots? Like, is it gonna be in the home? Is it gonna be in the factory?"

Adcock responded:

"In the near term, we're gonna be selling these into the home. So you can lease a Figure 03 for something like $600 a month."

He continued:

"Yeah. You can plug it into a wall outlet, and it'll go to its dock and charge. I want it to do the laundry every day, dishes every day, and tidy the house multiple times a day. That's what I want."

Adcock posted a chart on Threads showing, he said, "Humanoid robots manufactured at Figure by month," revealing a clear production ramp.

However, the chart lacked a Y-axis, leaving the actual shipment numbers unclear.

Forbes pointed out that shipments may have climbed from roughly 60 units in February to 120 in March and 240 in April. However, those shipment numbers remain far below China's Agibot, which reportedly shipped 5,000 humanoids over three months.

Our latest note on the humanoid robot space, including UBS's delivery estimates, is available here.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 22:10

The Golden State Has Fallen: Welcome To The Islamic Republic Of California

The Golden State Has Fallen: Welcome To The Islamic Republic Of California

Authored by Rabbi Michael Barclay via American Greatness,

On April 8, the California Assembly Committee on Public Employment and Retirement voted 19–0 to adopt AB2017, followed on April 22 by the California Assembly Committee on Appropriations, which voted 7–0 to adopt the bill. And with those votes, all that is left for this to become California law is the passing of it by the State Assembly and Senate and approval by the governor.

And with it, the state of California will no longer exist as we know it, but will become the Islamic Republic of California.

Introduced by California Assemblyman Matt Haney (D-San Francisco 17th District) at the behest of CAIR, the bill seeks to officially recognize the Islamic holidays of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha as California state holidays.

There are no holidays from other religions that are recognized as state holidays in California.

Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, Ash Wednesday, Good Friday, and Epiphany are all extremely important holidays in Judaism and Christianity.

But none of them are recognized as California state holidays.

But according to Haney and the California legislature, apparently, Islamic holidays are much more important to the state than either Judaism or Christianity.

This bill is clearly unconstitutional, as it is in direct contradiction to the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof . . .”

By placing two Islamic holidays as official state holidays, they are respecting the establishment of a specific religion. But the problem is greater than just their violation of the Constitution in attempting to pass this bill.

The holidays themselves, Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, are expressions and manifestations of the very worst aspects of Islam.

Eid al-Fitr marks the end of the Islamic month of Ramadan and is the penultimate celebration of the month and its meanings. Ramadan is the month-long holiday commemorating Mohammed’s first vision in 610 CE, in which he supposedly was visited by the angel Gabriel (named Jibril in Arabic) in a cave near Mecca and given a revelation that ultimately became the Quran. It is a month of fasting and a national holiday in countries such as Iran, Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Muslim theocracies.

It is also traditionally the month of war in Islam. Although war is forbidden in the Quran during four other months (the 1st, 7th, 11th, and 12th), it is not only allowed during Ramadan; it has historically been encouraged to be a month of initiating war against “infidels.” The Yom Kippur War against Israel in 1973 was started by the Arabs during Ramadan. Three years ago, Ismail Haniyeh, who was considered the political leader of Hamas (and who lived in Qatar until killed in July of 2024 and had a net worth of over two billion dollars), called for all Arabs to attack Israel during Ramadan and to siege and blockade the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and have continual mass riots there. Ramadan, going back to Mohammed himself, is the time to start wars on non-Muslims and is a source of Islamic pride as the time to forcefully convert the world to Islam. The Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s official arm in Syria, has even described Ramadan as “a month of conquests.”

Some historical examples of the Islamic intention during Ramadan include the Battle of Badr, a victory led by Mohammed himself in the second Ramadan; the conquest of Mecca, 6 years after Badr; the war for Andalusia in 711 CE; the Battle of Ain Jalut against the Mongols; and the Battle of Hattin during the Crusades.

And that’s just in the first 200 years of Islamic history.

But Matt Haney and the California Legislature want to make this holiday, which is about military victory over non-Muslims, into an official state holiday!

And then there is the second Islamic holiday that they want to make an official state holiday: Eid al-Adha, the “Feast of the Sacrifice.” This is a holiday about being willing to violently sacrifice and kill if it is commanded by Allah. It includes throwing stones at a wall to symbolize the willingness to fight for the “will of God” by stoning Satan and exemplifies the observant Islamic belief in stoning when “required.” Animals are also sacrificed as part of this holiday’s celebration. And this is not a small sacrifice of one chicken for an entire community, but rather, the expectation is that each Muslim will perform animal sacrifices.

In Bangladesh, 13 million animals are sacrificed each year; in Pakistan, more than nine million; and globally, it is estimated that approximately 50 million animals are sacrificed each year for this Islamic holiday.

Each year, this holiday causes the death of 50 million animals and encourages the practice of stoning anything that is contradictory to the Quran, Hadith, and Islamic theology. And this is the holiday that Haney and his Democratic colleagues in the California State Legislature want to make into an official state holiday.

War, stoning, and animal sacrifice—these are the values that have been unanimously approved by the committee, and are on track to becoming approved by the California government.

Yom Kippur is a Jewish holiday about the value of being self-reflective and atoning for our personal sins. Epiphany is a Christian holiday celebrating the baptism of Jesus; Good Friday deepens the Christian faith as it honors the sacrifice of Jesus on the cross for all of humanity; and Ash Wednesday reminds Christians of the journey of Jesus during Lent that leads to the Resurrection on Easter. Atonement, spiritual awareness, faith in God: these are values that the State of California rejects as holidays while honoring the Islamic values of war and death.

With the passing of this bill, which is not certain but is highly likely, California will officially have gone off the cliff, rejecting Western civilization in favor of officially adopting Islamic practices and values.

Rest in peace, California. We will miss you.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 21:45

US Intelligence Only Sees Limited Additional Damage To Iran Nuclear Program Since Last June

US Intelligence Only Sees Limited Additional Damage To Iran Nuclear Program Since Last June

A widely circulating fresh report in Reuters has raised eyebrows and serious questions related to the effectiveness of the 38-day aerial campaign which saw US-Israel bombs unleashed in the many thousands (combined: some 20,000+ munitions expended) on the Islamic Republic.

"US intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a US-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter," the report lays out.

"The assessments of Tehran's nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that US President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb," it continues.

via Fox

The Israelis are believed to have done most of the direct targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities in the late February through April air campaign. This after already since last June, the White House insisted Iran's nuclear program was 'obliterated'.

Again, one wonders what nearly 40 days of record-levels of bombardment of Iranian cities and military sites actually accomplished in terms of degrading Iran's nuclear enrichment capability - which has emerged as the primary US goal (stalled negotiations have centered on the demand that Tehran given up its nuclear material). It seems the needle may have hardly moved in terms of degrading Iranian nuke sites since last June?

The Reuters report gives the following additional conclusion: "The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran’s nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or HEU."

And that of course brings the situation back to the square one dilemma of whether to launch ground operations to recover what Trump calls the 'nuclear dust' - which further raises the prospect of utter disaster and endless quagmire (and there are signs of quagmire already, even without ground forces).

In shifting from 'Epic Fury' to 'Project Freedom' - the US administration seems to want to find a way out of this without a protracted ground war, which would mean serious losses in blood and treasure. The below is the official latest White House position:

While Operation ⁠Midnight Hammer obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities, Operation Epic Fury built on this success by decimating Iran’s defense industrial base that they ‌once leveraged as a protective shield around their pursuit of a nuclear weapon,” said White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales, referring ‌to the June operation and the latest war that began in February.

"President Trump has long been clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon – and he does not bluff."

But Iran has countered that it considers its enriched uranium stockpile a matter of national sovereignty, and will 'never' allow it to be transferred outside the country.

Next round of US-Israeli bombing being planned?

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei two weeks ago denied reports at the time which said Tehran had agreed to transfer its highly enriched uranium abroad, saying "enriched uranium is sacred to us, as is Iranian soil." The Iranians have since repeatedly made clear that the issue is a non-starter, and wants to focus talks on opening Hormuz and ending the war.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 19:40

How A Musk Victory Vs. Altman Would Reset America's AI Roadmap

How A Musk Victory Vs. Altman Would Reset America's AI Roadmap

A courtroom victory for Elon Musk in his high-stakes federal trial against Sam Altman and OpenAI would deliver one of the most disruptive blows to the artificial intelligence sector in its brief but explosive history - potentially forcing the $850-billion-plus company to unwind its for-profit empire, ousting its top leaders, and handing Musk a symbolic and financial hammer to reshape the global race for AGI while weakening one of its fiercest competitors.

The case is now being argued in a federal courtroom in Oakland, before Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers. The trial opened on April 28 and entered its second week on Monday, when OpenAI president Greg Brockman took the stand and confirmed his personal stake in the company is worth roughly $30 billion. Musk's counsel returned to the figure more than a dozen times in two hours of questioning.

The Case

Musk co-founded OpenAI in late 2015 as a nonprofit and contributed roughly $38 million in its early years. He left the board in 2018. The following year, OpenAI created a capped-profit subsidiary to attract the capital that frontier AI now requires; Microsoft has since invested more than $13 billion. ChatGPT launched in November 2022. By 2025, OpenAI was preparing for what would have been one of the largest initial public offerings in history.

Musk sued in 2024. The original complaint contained twenty-six claims; only two survive - breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment - while the fraud claims were dismissed before trial. Microsoft is named as a co-defendant for allegedly aiding and abetting the breach, a detail often elided in summary coverage.

The remedies sought are unusually sweeping. Musk wants OpenAI's for-profit structure unwound and its assets returned to the nonprofit foundation. He wants Sam Altman and Brockman removed from leadership. And he is seeking up to $150 billion in damages from OpenAI and Microsoft combined, with any award flowing directly to OpenAI's charitable arm rather than to Musk personally.

Structure of the Trial

Judge Gonzalez Rogers has bifurcated the proceedings into a liability phase, expected to conclude around May 21, and a separate remedies phase that would follow only if the defendants are found at fault. A nine-person jury sits during liability alone, and its verdict is advisory. Structural remedies - including any order to dissolve the for-profit subsidiary - fall solely to the judge.

This procedural detail matters more than it may appear. Coverage that casts the jury as the decisive actor misreads the case. The jury can shape narrative momentum and offer a finding the judge may weigh, but it cannot order OpenAI to unwind anything. Whatever the verdict, Gonzalez Rogers writes the remedy.

What a Musk Win Would Actually Mean

Setting aside the $150 billion headline - which is a ceiling, not a floor, and is divided across defendants - three concrete consequences would follow a substantive ruling against OpenAI.

The first is restructuring. A finding that the 2019 capped-profit conversion and its 2025 successor breached a charitable trust would, at minimum, force a reorganization placing the nonprofit foundation back in unambiguous control. The IPO would be delayed indefinitely, if not foreclosed. Investor returns would be capped or rewritten. Microsoft's roughly $13 billion stake, and the larger commitments that followed from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia, would all face revaluation.

The second is leadership. Musk's complaint seeks the removal of Altman and Brockman. Whether the court orders that remedy in full is uncertain; partial governance reform is the likelier outcome. Either way, the result would be destabilizing for an organization whose competitive position rests substantially on the people at the top of it.

The third is precedent, and it may prove the most durable. A ruling for Musk would establish that nonprofit-to-commercial transitions in American technology can be reversed years after the fact, once the entity has grown large enough to be worth reversing. Founders, donors, and investors in mission-driven labs would have to reckon with a previously hypothetical risk: that the structure they signed up for is the structure they will be held to, indefinitely.

The Defense

OpenAI's response, articulated by lead counsel William Savitt, is that Musk himself supported a for-profit restructuring as early as 2017 - as long as he was placed in charge of it. When the other founders declined, he left, predicted the company's failure, and later launched a competitor. The obvious angle here is that the lawsuit is a delayed instrument of competitive harm rather than a vindication of charitable principle.

The defense will lean on contemporaneous evidence: Musk's own emails proposing for-profit structures; his instruction to associates to register a for-profit corporation in OpenAI's name; and Brockman's private journal, which Musk's team has used to suggest financial motive but which also records the founders' resistance to handing OpenAI to Musk.

What Remains

Several witnesses are still to come. Altman has not yet testified. Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella is expected. Stuart Russell, the Berkeley computer scientist, will appear as Musk's expert on AI risk; the judge has already declined a request from Musk's counsel that Russell be permitted to range beyond his written report into extinction scenarios.

Two days before the trial began, Musk texted Brockman to gauge interest in settlement. When Brockman proposed mutual dismissal, Musk replied that he and Altman would be the most hated men in America by week's end. The judge declined to admit the exchange. No settlement has materialized.

The trial is expected to run another two to three weeks. The remedies phase, if it comes, will follow.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 18:00

ISO New England Trims 10-Year Forecast Based On Electrification Outlook

ISO New England Trims 10-Year Forecast Based On Electrification Outlook

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive

Electricity consumption in New England will grow about 9% over the next decade, driven by electrification of buildings and vehicles, the region’s independent system operator said in an annual report published Friday. While significant, the rise in consumption is lower than its forecast in the two previous reports, reflecting changes in “government policy,” ISO New England said.

The “2026-2035 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission,” or CELT report, estimates annual consumption will rise from 116,679 GWh this year to 127,660 GWh in 2035, an increase of about 0.9% annually.

In 2024, the ISO said it anticipated a 17% rise in annual energy use by 2033. In 2025, it reduced its 10-year outlook to an 11% rise by 2034.

The energy forecast “reflects more conservative assumptions around future adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps in light of government policy changes,” the ISO said in a blog post.

New England’s net annual energy use has trended downward since 2005, “mainly due to more efficient heating and cooling systems, appliances, and lighting,” as well as growth in behind-the-meter solar, the grid operator said. Now, it predicts “that trend will reverse over the next decade.”

“Steady growth in net annual energy use is expected as state policy goals for carbon emissions reductions continue to incentivize electrification of heating systems and transportation in the region,” the ISO said.

Notably, the ISO said sustained load growth means it will soon be a dual-peaking system.

While New England has typically seen electricity demand peak during the hot summer months, the addition of electric heating load means that by 2035, the ISO expects winter and summer peaks to be roughly the same, around 26.5 GW. ISO New England’s all-time peak of 28.1 GW was set in summer 2006.

The grid operator anticipates peak demand of 25.2 GW this summer and 20.5 GW this upcoming winter season.

Heating electrification is projected to contribute 5,533 MW to the winter peak in 2035/2036, ISO said, while transportation electrification is forecast to contribute 1,509 MW. In the ISO’s previous CELT report, it estimated electric vehicles would account for 1,764 MW of the winter peak in 2034/2035, while heating electrification was is expected to account for 4,765 MW that season.

The ISO said it revised its EV adoption forecast down to account for the removal of federal incentives and revisions to state policies and expectations for each vehicle class. Its heat pump forecast was similarly adjusted to account for expiring federal tax credits.

Behind-the-meter solar is forecast to have a growing impact on winter peak demand, reducing it by an expected 316 MW in 2035/2036, the ISO said in its latest report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 17:40

From DEI To Equal Protection: A New Direction In Civil Rights Policy

From DEI To Equal Protection: A New Direction In Civil Rights Policy

Authored by Kenin M. Spivak via RealClearPolitics,

The Trump administration is restoring the core value of equal opportunity to civil rights enforcement. It is eviscerating the race-baiting, intersectional policies of the Biden and Obama administrations, and giving substance to the Supreme Court’s unanimous decision in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services (2025) that whites, men, and heterosexuals are not held to a higher standard in discrimination cases.

This is a time for rejoicing, tempered by concern that the administration will not have time to complete its work, and that its reliance on executive orders, rather than legislation and consent decrees, will allow the next Democratic president to rip asunder President Trump’s laudable accomplishments.

Despite more than a century of Supreme Court decisions forbidding discrimination on the basis of race, Democrats generally, and progressives specifically, have inverted President John F. Kennedy’s executive order establishing affirmative action. Intended to bring an end to discrimination because of race, creed, color, and national origin, progressives instead transformed affirmative action into a system of preferences based on melanin content, and absorbed this once hopeful construct into radical philosophies used to justify bias, including Critical Race Theory (CRT), intersectionality, disparate impact theory, and ultimately DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion).

They oppose Trump’s effort to dismantle their race-addled policies with every lever available to them. Ivy League universities have to be bludgeoned into enforcing equal rights. Blue city mayors continue their fight to sideline white males. Hollywood artists and programmers refuse to work for studios and tech companies that recognize political and legal realties. Liberal Supreme Court justices bemoan the majority’s refusal to rule based on the intersectional hierarchy of so-called “marginalized” minorities, and Obama- and Biden-appointed federal judges enjoin proper exercises of executive power.

CRT originated in the 1970s as a tortured rationale advocating that colorblind laws inevitably serve the interests of white people.

Intersectionality has become a cornerstone of CRT. Developed principally by Columbia Law Professor Kimberlé Crenshaw, it utilizes a hierarchy of social oppression to allocate benefits and burdens, providing the doctrinal basis for DEI policies, transgender activism, and antisemitism. The latter shows the bankruptcy of the dogma: Despite hundreds of years of oppression, pogroms and the Holocaust, as a result of educational and business achievements, Jews are seen as powerful oppressors, while Palestinians and other Muslims are seen as marginalized minorities.

Disparate impact is a central tenet of progressive litigation strategy. Its premise that marginalized communities must receive their proportionate share of opportunities is the progenitor of the “equity” prong of DEI. Liability is established if there is a shortfall, regardless of whether that shortfall is caused by discrimination.

DEI is the fusion of these philosophies, a malevolent form of affirmative action that allocates benefits based on race, sex, and gender identity. To ensure pre-determined outcomes, progressive decisionmakers and courts have tampered with and eliminated entry exams, waived criminal background checks, and watered down academic, disciplinary, admissions, graduation, employment, and promotion standards.

In 2024, the Biden administration took a bow for more than 650 actions that required federal, state, and local government agencies and contractors to award and allocate burdens, opportunities, and benefits based on race, sex, and gender identification.

Progressives defended these manifestly unconstitutional and unlawful actions by claiming that while the words of the 14th Amendment, federal civil rights statutes, and President Johnson’s executive order on equal employment opportunity prohibit the use of race in government actions, their true meaning was the opposite – that race and other innate characteristics must be used to achieve outcomes based on these characteristics.

The Biden administration also targeted people of faith, with abuses ranging from FBI infiltration of Catholic churches to weaponizing the FACE Act against pro-life Americans. And it adopted rules requiring that universities treat biological males who identify as women as actual women, and ended due process for any grievances filed for allegedly violating their rights, or in sexual harassment cases. Respondents were denied notice, the right to examine the complainant, or a right of appeal. The university investigator was permitted to serve as the hearing officer.

Progressives justified the administration’s attack on religion, female athletes, and due process as necessary to protect the rights of marginalized minorities.

Underscoring the left’s situational ethics, as the Biden administration embarked on a whole-of-government censorship enterprise to silence its critics, the ACLU abandoned its 100-year commitment to free speech, declaring that speech that denigrates marginalized groups can “inflict serious harms and is intended to and often will impede progress toward equality.”

Upon taking office for his second term, President Trump revoked Biden’s executive orders impacting race, sex, and gender. He issued orders prohibiting DEI, other race-based programs, and disparate impact in federal government hiring, promotion, and contracting; terminated federal employees hired for the Biden administration’s massive DEI apparatus; and ordered “appropriate action” to pressure K-12 schools into abandoning race-based disciplinary policies. He rescinded an executive order that required federal contractors to utilize affirmative action in their hiring practices.

Rejecting intersectionality, Trump issued orders tying federal funding to elimination of extreme gender ideology, proclaiming, “It is the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality,” and protecting children from chemical and surgical mutilation – positions belatedly adopted by leading medical organizations. He also ordered the Department of Education to take all appropriate action to keep biological men out of women’s sports.

Trump directed federal agencies to improve security vetting for international students and to prioritize civil rights protections for Jewish students. He eliminated collection and publication of data used in a misguided effort to claim that environmental harms targeted minorities because manufacturing facilities are concentrated in lower-income neighborhoods, and he issued an order to pressure the Smithsonian Institution to restore balance to its depiction of American history.

The Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division under Harmeet Dhillon and Education Department under Linda McMahon launched enforcement actions against Ivy league universities to protect Jewish students and restore viewpoint diversity. The Justice Department also commenced investigations, filed and intervened in lawsuits, and reached settlements with public and private institutions to protect Americans of all backgrounds and faiths – just last week forcing Colorado to abandon a law that favors AI algorithms that promote “diversity.” It investigated the Biden administration’s weaponization of the FACE Act, issued an 882-page report exposing the abuses, and eliminated them. The Education Department ordered universities to bring back due process in university grievance procedures.

The left is vigorously fighting back. Universities have slyly rebranded DEI offices, legal challenges have been filed against Trump’s executive orders and related regulations, Democrat-appointed judges have issued injunctions, and Democratic Party officials have doubled down on racial and gender politics. For the most part, the administration has prevailed in lower courts or secured stays of adverse rulings pending appeals.

Some progressives support intersectionality, disparate impact, and DEI to harm straight white Americans. Many are so caught up in innate characteristics that they believe individual opportunity and fairness is determined at a group level, while other progressives delude themselves into believing they can choose winners without creating losers. The administration must hold firm against the left’s vitriolic counterattacks. As Donald Trump restores the American dream of equal opportunity, his challenge with just eight months until the probable loss of the Republican legislative majority is to create enduring change, rather than an interregnum in progressive rule.

Kenin M. Spivak is founder and chairman of SMI Group LLC, an international consulting firm and investment bank. He is the author of fiction and non-fiction books and a frequent speaker and contributor to media, including RealClearPolitics, The American Mind, National Review, television, radio, and podcasts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 17:00

Alberta Separatists Say They Have Enough Signatures To Force Referendum On Leaving Canada

Alberta Separatists Say They Have Enough Signatures To Force Referendum On Leaving Canada

A group pushing for Alberta to break free from Canada announced Monday that it has submitted nearly double the number of signatures required to force a referendum -- which could come as early as October. While Alberta Premier Danielle Smith opposes independence, she has assured Albertans that she will not try to thwart a referendum if the signature hurdle were cleared.  

A signature in support of an independence referendum is collected atop a mountain in Alberta (via Stay Free Alberta)

Triggering a referendum requires 178,000 signatures, but the separatist organization Stay Free Alberta says it amassed more than 301,000. As in the United States, referendum organizers usually aim to far overshoot the required number so as to survive challenges on the validity of individual signatures.

On Monday, the group's leader, Mitch Sylvestre descended on Alberta's election offices in Edmonton with the petitions, aboard a convoy seven trucks strong. Celebrating the accomplishment, he likened it to Canada's favorite sport. “This day is historic in Alberta history,” he said. “It’s the first step to the next step — we’ve gotten by Round 3 and now we’re in the Stanley Cup final.”

Despite Sylvestre's triumphalism, the independence drive could hit a snag this week, as a judge may rule on a challenge of the referendum filed by a First Nations group. That term is used to describe indigenous people who are not Inuit or Métis. Their legal challenge centers on the claim that Albertan independence would deny them privileges afforded them by treaties. The verification of referendum-support signatures has been stayed pending the decision. However, Stay Free Alberta attorney Jeff Rath said these are mere speed bumps. "As far as we're concerned, whatever the court does or whatever Elections Alberta does at this point is meaningless,” he told CBC, given the premier can't ignore more than 300,000 signatures.  

Alberta has been on the wrong end of a Canadian policy called "Equalization" -- a more palatable term than what it should be called: "Wealth Redistribution." According to the Canadian government's official description, Equalization "address[es] fiscal disparities among provinces." It does so by distributing the fiscal fruits of federal taxation to provinces in such a way that poorer provinces get more money than more-prosperous ones. Alberta is easily Canada's best-off province on a per-capita basis. 

Alberta (AB) is easily Canada's wealthiest province, and sees its wealth redistributed throughout the country under the "Equalization" scheme (via Canadian government)

A victory for the "yes" side of the referendum won't guarantee independence, as more legal challenges will certainly sprout up, to say nothing of the thorny negotiations with the Canadian government that would be required -- negotiations that could be slow-walked by Albertan leaders who aren't enthused about breaking away.  

For those and other reasons, some who support independence are wary of how the referendum will play out. For example, even if the pro-independence side prevails, the waters could be muddied by the results of concurrent referendum questions. Writing at the Brownstone Institute earlier this year, Bruce Pardy painted a picture: 

If voters support independence but also other constitutional changes, what do they mean? Which should be pursued first? Which is the last resort? What if voters support independence but also support Alberta having the right to opt out of federal programs while retaining federal funding? Both of those things cannot happen. One requires that Alberta be a province, and the other requires that it not be. Any referendum result that requires interpretation is not clear.

A pro-unity group called Forever Canadian has been active too, racking up more than 400,000 signatures on a petition that asked, "Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?” Meanwhile, polls show an uphill climb for the separatists, with huge differences between United Conservative Party and New Democratic Party voters: 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 16:40

AMD Dumps & Pumps (To New Record High) After Beat-And-Raise

AMD Dumps & Pumps (To New Record High) After Beat-And-Raise

Just wow...

AMD shares initially puked after results dropped showing top- and bottom-line beats:

  • EPS: $1.37 vs. $1.29 adjusted expected

  • Revenue: $10.25 billion vs. $9.89 billion expected

But now they are exploding higher after the second-largest AI chipmaker raised estimates:

  • For the second quarter, AMD said it expects about $11.2 billion in revenue, versus expectations of $10.52 billion, according to LSEG

That is a new record high...

Revenue jumped 38% from $7.44 billion a year ago, the company said in a release on Tuesday, beating in every segment...

  • Data center revenue $5.78 billion, +57% y/y, estimate $5.61 billion

  • Gaming revenue $720 million, +11% y/y, estimate $668.6 million

  • Client revenue $2.89 billion, +26% y/y, estimate $2.73 billion

  • Embedded revenue $873 million, +6.1% y/y, estimate $868.4 million

“Looking ahead, we expect server growth to accelerate meaningfully as we scale supply to meet demand,” Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said in the statement.

“We delivered an outstanding first quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, with data center now the primary driver of our revenue and earnings growth.”

Oh and in case you didn't see enough beats...

  • Capital expenditure $389 million, +83% y/y, estimate $215.2 million

  • Adjusted operating income $2.54 billion, +43% y/y, estimate $2.41 billion

  • Adjusted operating margin 25% vs. 24% y/y, estimate 24.3%

  • Free cash flow $2.57 billion vs. $727 million y/y, estimate $2.35 billion

  • R&D expenses $2.40 billion, +39% y/y, estimate $2.26 billion

Tonight's gains come AFTER AMD's stock has more than tripled over the past year, including a 66% jump so far in 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 16:29

NIH Virologist Vincent Munster Caught Smuggling Deadly Viruses Into U.S., FBI Investigating

NIH Virologist Vincent Munster Caught Smuggling Deadly Viruses Into U.S., FBI Investigating

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

Since the COVID pandemic landed on American shores in early 2020, virologists and allied science writers have engaged in a vociferous propaganda campaign to deny the dangers of virus experiments. When Nature Magazine published a 2021 article minimizing a Wuhan lab accident as the pandemic’s cause, science writer Amy Maxmen quoted Vincent Munster, a virologist at the Rocky Mountain Laboratories, a division of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), in Montana.

Munster told Nature’s Maxmen that there was nothing suspicious about a novel coronavirus popping up in the same city as the Wuhan Institute of Virology which was studying coronaviruses. Labs tend to specialize in the specific viruses found around them, Munster explained, and the Wuhan Institute of Virology focuses on coronaviruses because many circulate in China and neighboring countries.

“Nine out of ten times, when there’s a new outbreak, you’ll find a lab that will be working on these kinds of viruses nearby,” Munster told Nature.

Well, kind of. Sort of. But really not.

In fact, virologists regularly collect viruses from far away countries and bring them back to their own cities to study. And according to emails I have seen that are now circulating inside the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), one of those virologists is the NIH’s Vincent Munster.

“We are unable to comment as this is under investigation,” wrote HHS spokesperson, Andrew Nixon in an email. “So we will refer you to the FBI.”

When contacted about their investigation into Munster and his NIH researcher, the FBI press office replied by email, “We decline to comment.”

While on a trip back from the Democratic Republic of Congo earlier this year, Munster and a scientist in his NIH lab were pulled aside for an airport security inspection. Inside their luggage, one of the two had a hard-shelled protective case used to transport sensitive property such as electronics and firearms. When the protective case was opened, it was found to contain pathogen samples collected from patients.

However, the human pathogens, which included monkeypox virus, may have been inactivated by reagents and rendered no longer infectious.

Munster and his NIH research fellow Claude Kwe Yinda published a February study in a Lancet journal that cited monkeypox as a global threat. Without any hint of irony, they warned about “multiple travel-associated cases reported since 2024, including seven in the USA.” The Democratic Republic of Congo has been considered the global epicenter of monkeypox virus, with over 100,000 cases as of October last year.

HHS regulates monkeypox as a “select agent”—microorganisms and toxins that pose a severe threat to public safety. Federal programs control their possession and use, while Department of Transportation regulations manage their shipment and transport.

Munster and his lab scientist did not have paperwork required by law to transport deadly pathogens from Africa to his NIH lab in Montana. Both NIH scientists were placed on leave. Contact information for both Vincent Munster and Claude Kwe Yinda have been removed from the HHS employment directory.

Last year, the Department of Justice charged two Chinese nationals with criminal conspiracy for smuggling a dangerous plant fungus through a Detroit airport so they could study it in a lab at the University of Michigan.

Munster did not return repeated requests for comment sent to his NIH email asking him to explain if the monkeypox and potentially other viruses he was transporting had been inactivated or were still infectious. According to his bio at NIH’s Rocky Mountain Labs in Montana, Munster has field study sites in the Republic of the Congo to study Ebola virus with collaborators at the Wildlife Conservation Society and the Laboratoire National de Santé Publique in Brazzaville.

Rocky Mountain Labs is an integral part of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the institute once led by Tony Fauci. The Montana facility has a BSL-4 lab where virologists study the world’s most deadly viruses including Ebola, Marburg, and Lassa Fever.

Andrea Marzi, the Acting Chief of Virology at Rocky Mountain Labs, did not return emails asking if the monkeypox and other possible viruses Munster was transporting had been inactivated or were still infectious. Nor did she reply to requests asking if Munster’s lab had been secured.

Senator Rand Paul sent the NIAID director a letter two years ago regarding Munster, who was listed as a partner for a project called DEFUSE that was submitted in 2018 to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). As part of DEFUSE proposal to DARPA, virologists planned to engineer novel viruses by taking the backbone of a bat virus and inserting a spike protein with a furin cleavage site. A furin cleavage site allows viruses to infect the cells of human lungs.

DARPA denied funding for DEFUSE, but the following year, a novel bat virus with a furin cleavage site began infecting humans in Wuhan. No other virus closely related to the COVID virus has this furin cleavage site.

Shortly after the COVID virus began infecting Americans, Columbia University virologist Vincent Racaniello sent Munster an alarming February 2020 email, saying he had heard that the new COVID virus had a furin cleavage site “that might have been engineered.”

“If true this is very bad for all of virology research,” Racaniell wrote to Munster.

“And the fun begins,” replied Munster.

The news about Munster hits during an especially hard media cycle for virologists. I reported last week for RealClearInvestigations that the federal government had quietly removed University of North Carolina virologist Ralph Baric from all his NIH grants; UNC also placed Baric on leave. A senior HHS official, who reviewed the government’s classified material, told me that UNC is terrified the public will learn that they were complicit in starting the COVID pandemic.

“Baric designed the gun,” he said. “But the Chinese built it, and then they pulled the trigger.”

That same day, the Department of Justice indicted Tony Fauci’s senior advisor, David Morens, for concealing federal records concerning funding for virus research during the COVID pandemic. The indictment listed Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance as “CO-CONSPIRATOR 1” and Boston University virologist Gerald Keusch as “CO-CONSPIRATOR 2.”

Last month, I reported on newly unearthed emails that show Morens, Daszak, and Keusch plotted against me for writing a 2021 investigation for the BMJ that concluded virologists had conspired in a misinformation campaign to cover up a possible Wuhan lab accident as the COVID pandemic’s cause.

In emails discussing me and my 2021 article, Keusch asked Morens and Daszak if they knew how to get in contact with former BMJ editor Peter Smith to complain. Daszak emailed back that contacting the BMJ about me was “a really good move” as my reporting was “pretty offensive stuff.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 16:20

Trump Pauses Project Freedom Amid "Great Progress" Towards 'Complete & Final' Agreement With Iran

Trump Pauses Project Freedom Amid "Great Progress" Towards 'Complete & Final' Agreement With Iran Summary

  • Trump announce 'pause' to Project Freedom amid optimism of a "complete and final" deal with Iran; French ship confirmed hit in cruise missile attack, crew members injured

  • Rubio declares 'offensive' actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz.

  • UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources - however which Iran denies doing - instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn't declared end of ceasefire.

  • Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran's Monday operations were "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."

  • Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders.

  • Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf.

  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.

The odds of a peace deal being completed just jumped...

*  *  *

Trump Pauses Project Freedom

There is a knee-jerk wave of optimism across assets with WTI crude futures lower, US equity contracts and Treasury futures higher after President Trump said Project Freedom will be paused.

Trump also said there is progress toward a final agreement with Iran which is what investors really want to see as it could potentially mean a reopening of Hormuz. 

Trump statement on his TruthSocial feed (emphasis and spacing ours):

Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally...

...the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran...

...we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. 

WTI crude futures are testing back below $100...

Polymarket odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has jumped to better than a coin-flip...

Don't hold your breath though as there have been several false starts of this kind before, and traders will soon lose faith unless there are more details from the Iranian side.

Additionally late Tuesday, a French cargo ship was confirmed hit in a missile attack, injuring crew members:

A cargo ship in the Gulf region was hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile, causing several injuries among the ship's Filipino crew, two U.S. officials told CBS News.

The hit on the CGM San Antonio — which is owned by a French firm — took place late Tuesday evening local time, the officials said. The ship was near Dubai as of midday on Tuesday, but it is not clear whether the vessel has moved since then, according to public ship tracking data.

Rubio Declares Conflict in New Stage

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced Tuesday afternoon that offensive stage of Iran war is 'over'. He further said that ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz are facing a humanitarian crisis and accused Iran of holding the world hostage by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is denying that it attacked the United Arab Emirates, with the foreign ministry saying its 'defensive actions' were 'exclusively directed at the U.S.'

Operation Epic Fury is over, now Project Freedom.

The remarks were issued just as a new attack is unfolding on a foreign cargo ship in the strategic waterway:

Reaction in oil...

...as the goalposts keep shifting:

Trump Asked Whether Ceasefire is Dead

A revealing exchange in the Oval Office strongly suggests that even amid a second Iranian attack wave on the UAE Tuesday, the White House is unwilling to say that the ceasefire has collapsed - also given there's yet been no direct exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces: 

President Trump, taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, would not specify what Iran would need to do to violate the cease-fire. Asked by a reporter what would constitute a violation, considering that the country has fired on U.S. ships several times, Trump said: “Well, you’ll find out, because I’ll let you know.”

He added that “they know what to do,” and “they know what not to do, more importantly.”

Earlier the Pentagon clearly indicated that the ceasefire is still active, from Washington's point of view. 

The Iranian government is meanwhile trying to bat down rumors of a division between the presidency and the IRGC/military apparatus.

Second UAE Attack Wave Active

The country's Ministry of Defense has just released official statement of inbound projectiles out of Iran:

  • The UAE's air defenses are currently dealing with missile and drone attacks originating from Iran.
  • The Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE's air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
  • UAE Air Defences system are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats MOD asserts that the sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAV's

There are meanwhile reports of explosions being heard on Iran's Qeshm Island, and questions raised about scenes like the following:

Is Ceasefire Over? Pentagon Answers Definitively 

In the Tuesday morning Pentagon presser led by War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine stated very clearly that the US views Monday's escalation (the attack on UAE and some vessels in the Strait of Hormuz) as actions which are "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."

The Trump administration has argued that it doesn't have to seek congressional approval to continue military operations beyond a 60-day limit because there is a ceasefire in effect. But the question raised Monday is: does the fresh Iranian cross-Gulf mark the end of ceasefire? Clearly the Pentagon and Trump administration are saying no. "No adversary should mistake our current restraint for a lack of resolve," Caine then emphasized.

Below are some of the latest top developments from various MSM sources:

—Trump’s desire to end the Iran war is being put to the test after Tehran fired at American warships on Monday and violently disrupted a U.S. effort to revive shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Trump wants to avoid a fresh bombing campaign, officials say, preferring a negotiated end to Tehran’s nuclear advancements and the weekslong war that has raised gas prices and hurt the global economy. (WSJ)

—U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year. The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran's nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran's remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium. (RTRS)

—Trump says war could stretch 3 more weeks, claims US 'already won.’ (ABC)

Below: Pentagon slide in Tuesday's briefing showing Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping: "Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships since the ceasefire was announced" (Gen. Caine).

And this puts things in perspective...

Internal Iranian Schism Over Monday UAE Attacks(?)

There's a lot of chatter that Iran's civilian government and the IRGC are at direct odds over Monday's attack on UAE, which resulted in a large blaze at the Fujairah oil facility and the three injured Indian nationals. Al Jazeera for example observes:

By targeting the facility, Iran is sending a direct message to UAE saying: “We can target your most important economic points even if you think you can get around the Strait of Hormuz,” said Turak.

Iran’s government has not confirmed or denied responsibility for the attack. Turak noted there are "quite contradictory" statements coming out of Iran, however.

And Saudi-funded Iran International claims the following dramatic schism and internal rupture over the risky cross-Gulf operation, which could signal the end of the ceasefire (though curiously President Trump himself has not said it is broken):

Exclusive information obtained by Iran International points to a growing clash between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and its military leadership over Monday’s escalation in the Persian Gulf and attacks on the United Arab Emirates.

According to sources familiar with Tehran’s deliberations, Pezeshkian has expressed strong anger at actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, led by Ahmad Vahidi, describing missile and drone strikes on the UAE as “completely irresponsible” and carried out without the government’s knowledge or coordination.

Pezeshkian is said to have described the IRGC’s approach to escalating tensions with regional countries as “madness,” warning of potentially irreversible consequences.

This certainly isn't the first time that Iran International, a London-based publication seen as also 'close' to Israeli intelligence, has alleged severe internal division in Iran's wartime decision-making, but the viewpoint is beginning to be echoed and reported on more broadly.

Two US Navy Destroyers Successfully Transit Strait

To review of Monday's major escalation, US Central Command said its forces had intercepted missiles targeting US Navy and commercial vessels, and also said American helicopters sank six small Iranian boats that officials said were targeting civilian vessels under American protection.

And also came a big milestone in terms of Washington aims to enforce Trump's newly announced Project Freedom plan to provide military escort for ships through Hormuz. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf on Monday and overnight after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials.

CBS reports, "The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage." The report underscores further that "Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck."

Apaches, Centcom handout 'No Military Solution'

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has issued an interesting statement decrying Trump's attempt at escalation in Hormuz, warning that there's no “military solution” to the crisis, while warning the US, UAE, and other regional countries against being drawn into a “quagmire” in the region.

"Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis," Araghchi wrote on X. "As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock," to top Iranian diplomat asserted.

Also of note is that Araghchi will travel to Beijing on Tuesday for discussions with his Chinese counterpart. "During the visit he will meet his Chinese counterpart [Wang Yi] to discuss bilateral ties and regional and international developments," Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Below: Graham says you either pay now or you pay later. “They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.”

Officially at least, Beijing has a policy of "noninterference" in other countries’ internal affairs, and has claimed to not be involved in the Iran conflict - while Washington has consistently accused China of providing intelligence to Tehran, and even possibly military hardware or weapons.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s presidential secretary Choi Soung-ah says "the safety of international maritime routes and freedom of navigation should be protected under international law" and that Seoul is "watching President Trump’s remark related to this," according Reuters. This after ann explosion and fire on a South Korean-operated ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which Trump blamed on an Iranian attack.

More Geopolitical Developments

via Newsquawk...

  •  US President Trump said Iran war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.
  • IRGC military source told Tasnim that the US shot two small boats carrying civilians instead of shooting IRGC speedboats.
  • "Iranian Defense Council member Ali Akbar Ahmadian: Our security does not accept negotiations, and Washington obstructed global navigation and energy security", Al Jazeera reported.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian has requested an immediate and emergency meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei to ask him to stop IRGC attacks on Persian Gulf nations and prevent a recurrence, Iran International reported.
  • Pezeshkian reportedly outlined that the IRGC attack on the UAE occurred without the knowledge of the government.
  • US intelligence suggests strikes from the start of the war led to limited new damage to Iran's nuclear programme, Reuters sources say.
  • US State Department official to Al Jazeera said the President is clear that direct communication between Israel and Lebanon is the best path toward peace; We are working to prepare the necessary conditions and political momentum to move forward with this
  • Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials who spoke to CBS News; "Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them".
  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said its subsidiary's US-flagged vehicle carrier, Alliance Fairfax, exited the Gulf via Strait of Hormuz on May 4th.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent had a "fierce row" with UK Chancellor Reeves last month over her outspoken criticism of the Iranian war, FT sources say.
  • US CENTCOM posted "US warships and aircraft deployed to the Middle East are enforcing the naval blockade against Iran while executing Project Freedom to support the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.".
  • US officials say military closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.
  • US President Trump reiterates he feels Europe has been "very disappointing".
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.".
  • Full post:"Events in Hormuz make clear that there's no military solution to a political crisis. As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.".
  • Mehr News Agency said a fire broke out in two commercial ships and spread to two others in Dayyer port south of Iran; cause not clear.
  • "Explosions were heard tonight in the port of Bandar Abbas (Iran) and on Qassem Island (Iran) in the Persian Gulf", N12 journalist reported citing sources in Iran.
  • IRGC political deputy said traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will only be done with Iran's permission, ISNA reported; "Any kind of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, if it is from the enemy, will be met with a decisive and crushing response".
  • Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being solidified.
  • Actions of the US and allies have threatened the security of shipping and energy.
  • UNSC resolution prepared by the US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait opens the door for potential enforcement measures, AsharqNews reported citing the resolution "to be distributed tomorrow".
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 16:00

From DOJ To Ballot Box: The Rise Of Lawfare Candidates

From DOJ To Ballot Box: The Rise Of Lawfare Candidates

Authored by Julie Kelly via RealClearInvestigations,

One of the beneficiaries of Virginia’s aggressive attempt to gerrymander the state for Democratic advantage could be a former federal prosecutor whose campaign for Congress hinges on his efforts to use the law to target President Trump and his supporters.

When a slim majority of Virginia voters gave the legislature authority last month to create congressional districts that could give Democrats a 10-1 advantage, J.P. Cooney cheered the outcome in a message on social media, boasting that the new district he was running in had been drawn “expressly for the purpose of standing up to Donald Trump’s and MAGA’s corruption.”

Although the fate of Virginia’s 7th Congressional District remains unclear – a state judge immediately blocked the measure, and the issue is expected to end up before the Supreme Court – Cooney’s candidacy represents a small but growing wave of former prosecutors who are running on their anti-Trump bona fides. So far, at least two other former Justice Department officials are seeking office by touting their work against the president, his supporters, and his current administration. All are running as Democrats.

J.P. Cooney is hoping to ride the anti-Trump credentials he accrued as a federal prosecutor to Congress. LinkedIn

To their supporters, these candidates represent a principled stand against what they see as the lawless excesses of the Trump administration. To many Republicans, the entry of supposedly neutral federal prosecutors into the brass knuckle world of politics confirms their suspicions that the DOJ is filled with partisans who used their power to target the president and the MAGA movement in general. 

Ryan Crosswell, who is running for Congress as a Democrat in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, resigned from his position as an assistant U.S. Attorney in the Southern District of New York last year, after the Justice Department sought to drop the indictment against then New York City Mayor Eric Adams on corruption charges. Crosswell’s superiors decided the case should be dropped over evidence suggesting the Biden DOJ had targeted the mayor because he was a vocal critic of the administration’s immigration policies.

In what has become a popular tactic by anti-Trump DOJ lawyers, Crosswell issued a public resignation letter: “I cannot fathom how anyone would do this to the public servants he is supposed to be leading. And the damage done was not limited to two offices – it appalled prosecutors throughout the Department and our alumni.”

In his video announcement, Crosswell showed a clip of Trump walking into a courthouse (followed by now acting Attorney General Todd Blanche) and denounced the president for forcing prosecutors to “drop a case against one of his friends.” (It is unclear whether Adams is actually a “friend” of Trump’s.)

In Minneapolis, former Assistant U.S. Attorney Julie Le is using her opposition to Trump’s immigration policies in her bid to replace another fierce Trump critic, Rep. Ilhan Omar, in the Democratic primary. Le gained national attention in February when she had a meltdown before the judge. “What do you want me to do? The system sucks. This job sucks. And I am trying every breath that I have so that I can get you what you need,” Le said, referring to the DOJ’s overwhelming caseload. Le also told the judge, “We have no guidance or direction on what we need to do.”

Impeccable Anti-Trump Credentials

Le was quickly fired. She told the Washington Post that “she had never voted for Trump and opposed his brash enforcement style.” While Croswell and Le are hoping their anti-Trump credentials will help usher them into office, their record of resistance pales in comparison to Cooney’s, whose record of anti-Trump activity goes back a decade. 

Cooney – a Notre Dame grad where he served as the president of the College Democrats club before earning a law degree at the University of Virginia – launched his campaign in a crowded field by boasting about his key role in several anti-Trump prosecutions pursued by Attorney General Merrick Garland and Special Counsel Jack Smith between 2021 and 2025. After Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Smith as special counsel in November 2022, Cooney became his top deputy in the DOJ’s Jan. 6, 2021-related indictment against the president in Washington. They pushed for a quick trial before Election Day. Cooney also successfully sought a gag order against the president one year before the 2024 presidential election, banning the president from making any public statements about potential witnesses in the case, which included former administration officials such as Vice President Mike Pence and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, who were at the time criticizing Trump’s plan to again run for office.

Special Counsel Jack Smith, who sought ot prosecute Trump on multiple fronts, has endorsed Cooney. AP

Cooney, then chief of the fraud and public corruption section of the U.S. Attorney’s office in Washington, drafted the initial plan for how the DOJ could pursue Trump, as well as several figures and organizations who had participated in the events of Jan. 6. But Cooney’s plan was so aggressive, according to a 2023 Washington Post article, that it alarmed top FBI and DOJ officials and was immediately scuttled.

Trump fired Cooney shortly after Inauguration Day.

The J6 case against the president was dropped after Trump won the 2024 election, but Cooney wants to finish the job. “We have the evidence to convict this president,” Cooney said, pointing to the White House, in one social media post. “That justice can still come.” Cooney also insists that if Trump hadn’t “escaped trials by winning the election,” the president right now “would be in prison.”

“Cooney was the mastermind of the J6 case against the president,” John Lauro, the president’s trial counsel in the J6 case in Washington, told RealClearInvestigations. “Smith and Cooney used the sacred powers of the DOJ against Trump and political movement. Now we see the ultimate fruition of that with Cooney running for office as a far left Democrat and to use his experience as a persecutor against Trump to get an advantage in the far left wing of the Democratic party.” 

Jack Smith Endorsement

Jack Smith is endorsing his longtime colleague – the pair worked together at the Obama DOJ’s public integrity unit – calling Cooney “a man of integrity who has committed his career to upholding the rule of law, and he’s the model of who our country needs in public service.”

The president and congressional Republicans disagree. Cooney is currently the subject of both House and Senate investigations for allegedly abusing his authority at the DOJ to pursue Trump and his allies. During an April 21 hearing, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley accused Cooney and other former Biden DOJ officials of “literally trying to destroy” the country; Grassley, an Iowa Republican, released an extensive trove of text messages and emails between Cooney and Molly Gaston, his co-counsel in the J6 case against Trump.

Sen. Chuck Grassley has accused Cooney and other former Biden DOJ officials of “literally trying to destroy” the country. AP

Immediately following the events of Jan. 6, Cooney worked with Gaston to also investigate a handful of Republican House members for allegedly conducting “reconnaissance tours” on Jan. 5. That accusation was made by then Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherill, now the governor of New Jersey. Sherill claimed groups of individuals, some perhaps tied to Republican lawmakers, were walking inside the Capitol the day before the protest in an effort to scope out the building.

In a Jan. 16, 2021, text to Gaston, Cooney said he believed the “tour/map thing has legs.” He stated that Sherill’s allegations “made perfect sense” to him. “I am fairly confident that we are going to put a map or some other information relevant to coordinated activity in the hands of an extremist group and trace it back to a congressional office.”

Gaston replied, “yep.” A week later, the FBI Washington field office opened “Operation Rampart Twelve” to investigate Sherill’s accusations; the inquiry initially focused on Reps. Lauren Boebert and Paul Gosar based on groups of individuals walking near each representative on Jan. 5, 2021. (Sherril also made a similar allegation against Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.), who was cleared by Capitol Police after a separate investigation.)

FBI headquarters closed “Operation Rampart Twelve” a year later, after finding no evidence to support Cooney’s claims.

Cooney’s anti-Trump fingerprints stretch from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation to “Arctic Frost,” the Biden DOJ’s investigation into Trump and hundreds of Republican organizations, donors, and officeholders for the so-called “fake electors” plan. Emails released last year by Grassley’s committee showed Cooney’s central role in obtaining the toll records of several Republican members of Congress related to the probe.

Cooney's team prosecuted Roger Stone for lies and obstruction in connection with Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russiagate probe. AP

“It’s impossible to buy Democrats’ claim that Arctic Frost was a nonpartisan, by-the-book investigation when Jack Smith’s top henchman is now openly campaigning as a Democrat and running on a platform of impeaching President Trump,” a spokesperson for the Senate Judiciary Committee told RCI. “Cooney’s campaign is saying the quiet part out loud. Arctic Frost was never about justice – it was always about using the federal justice system to take down President Trump and the Republican Party. Thanks to Chairman Grassley’s oversight, which has exposed the Biden administration’s internal records, Americans are seeing the dark reality of the weaponized Arctic Frost investigation.”

But three ongoing federal criminal investigations into the president, a year before the 2024 election, were not enough for Cooney. A few months before Smith handed down his first indictment against the president in Florida for allegedly taking classified documents with him to Mar-a-Lago after leaving the White House, Cooney wanted to open yet another line of inquiry into Trump’s involvement in a song produced by the so-called “J6 Prison Choir,” a group of inmates detained at a special prison in Washington. Cooney wanted to know whether Trump was profiting from sales of the song. “Can we do some work on this to nail down Trump’s role in this?” Cooney wrote to his colleagues at the special counsel's office in March 2023, referring to a Forbes article about the project.

“The special counsel’s team was filled with inbred ideologues,” Lauro said 

Excessive Sentences, False Rumors

After longtime Trump confidant Steve Bannon was found guilty by a D.C. jury in 2022 on two counts of contempt of Congress, Cooney sought excessive prison time for Bannon’s refusal to cooperate with the Select January 6 Committee. He filed a 24-page sentencing memo for two misdemeanors that are rarely, if ever, prosecuted in the nation’s capital; he asked Judge Carl Nichols to send Bannon to prison for six months and pay a $200,000 fine. “The rioters who overran the Capitol on January 6 did not just attack a building – they assaulted the rule of law upon which this country was built and through which it endures. By flouting the Select Committee’s subpoena and its authority, [Bannon] exacerbated that assault,” Cooney wrote.

Nichols sentenced Bannon to four months in prison and imposed a $6,500 fine.

It was another sentencing request in a separate Trump-related case that offended both the DOJ’s inspector general and House Republicans. Cooney was part of the government’s team prosecuting Roger Stone, a longtime Trump associate, for allegedly interfering in the bogus Russia collusion investigation. Just like Bannon, Stone was found guilty by a D.C. jury of all charges, including obstruction and making false statements.

Cooney attempted to throw the book at Stone, asking for a sentence of between seven and nine years in prison. But the following day, Cooney’s boss at the office, who had already sparred with Cooney over what he saw as an excessive sentencing request, filed a separate sentencing recommendation, informing Judge Amy Berman Jackson that the initial memo “does not accurately reflect the Department of Justice’s position on what would be a reasonable sentence in this matter.” 

That prompted Cooney, according to then-DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, to start rumors claiming President Trump and Attorney General Bill Barr had intervened to help Stone obtain a lower sentence. A report issued in 2024 by Horowitz, following an extensive investigation into the Stone sentencing controversy, “did not identify documentary or testimonial evidence that the actions and decisions of those involved in the preparation and filing of the first and second sentencing memoranda were affected by improper political considerations or influence.” House Judiciary Chairman James Jordan subsequently opened a congressional investigation into Cooney’s false claims of political interference in the matter.

While serving as the DOJ's Inspector General, Michael Horowitz found that Cooney had spread false rumors about Trump and former Attorney General Bill Barr. AP

Attempts to reach Cooney’s and Crosswell’s campaigns were unsuccessful. Despite repeated requests, a DOJ spokeswoman declined to comment on their candidacies.

Cooney’s years-long pursuit of the president and everyone around him, Lauro insists, helped Trump get elected in 2024. “Because of [Cooney’s] efforts, President Trump won the presidency. So he was terrific for the president and the MAGA movement in that regard.”

Still, Cooney’s anti-Trump legacy may not be finished yet. If Cooney wins his Virginia race and Democrats retake the House in the fall midterm elections, the former prosecutor could play a central role amid reports that his party is already planning to impeach Trump.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 15:40

The Nuclear Co. And Brookfield Partner For New Large Reactor Projects

The Nuclear Co. And Brookfield Partner For New Large Reactor Projects

Brookfield announced that it has formed a partnership with The Nuclear Company (TNC), to create a new company for developing Westinghouse reactor technology.

This new company, which remains unnamed, is being positioned as a world-leading nuclear project execution company. 

A few weeks ago, we covered how Bloomberg anticipated an announcement for new AP1000s. But it appears TNC is focusing the JV's efforts, in the near term, on the possible restart and completion of the two AP1000 reactors at VC Summer in South Carolina. 

Westinghouse originally attempted to construct the two large reactors in 2017, but eventually canceled the project after costs spiraled out of control. Brookfield is now performing the studies necessary to make a Final Investment Decision by 2027, which would mean purchasing the partially-completed assets from Santee Cooper for $2.7 billion. 

The new company will also offer execution capabilities for deploying Westinghouse's smaller AP300 design with “end-to-end project management, licensing support, and oversight of engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning activity.”

TNC's Chief Nuclear Officer, Joe Klecha, frames the announcement as finally addressing what the nuclear industry has been lacking in order to truly unleash the nuclear renaissance build out phase, “We know what it takes to deliver nuclear. What’s been missing is a model that brings together the people, the capabilities, and the capital to do it at speed and scale. That’s what this partnership creates.”

The timelines are still relatively disappointing. Every month China seems to be adding another reactor to their "under construction" stack, with India gaining speed as well. As the months go on, it becomes harder and harder to take the nuclear renaissance seriously in the United States, given the lack of nuclear energy being added to the grid.

It's also bewildering that Brookfield and Cameco are still leaving money on the table with the previously announced $80 billion worth of support from the US government.

These massive amounts of money remain untouched since they were announced in October of last year.  

The progress being made under programs like the DOE Reactor Pilot Program are promising. But the program's wins, with being close to taking kilowatt-scale reactors critical for the first time in decades, struggle to stand out when China is adding over 1,000 megawatts of energy to their grid every month or two. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 15:20

Iraq Offers Huge Discounts Up To $33 Per Barrel For Oil Shipments Via Hormuz

Iraq Offers Huge Discounts Up To $33 Per Barrel For Oil Shipments Via Hormuz

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, is offering huge discounts of up to $33.40 per barrel off the official selling prices for its crude that has to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq’s oil production and exports have been severely crippled due to the hostilities in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only way to move Iraqi Basrah crude grades.

Iraq was one of the first Gulf producers to slash upstream production and now exports a small part of its crude via a pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean coast. But its key export port at Basrah, which handled the bulk of exports prior to the war, is constrained due to the unpassable Strait of Hormuz. Iraq has shipped some cargoes eastward out of the Strait thanks to bilateral agreements with Iran’s forces, but tankers now have to move empty westward of the Strait and travel deep into the Persian Gulf to load from Basrah.

Port of Basra

The inbound movement at the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill, and renewed tensions, blockades, the U.S. Project Freedom to guide ships, the Iranian threats to said project, and Iranian expansion of the area of control at Hormuz are further complicating tanker movement west into the Persian Gulf.

Iraq is now offering a discount of $33.40 per barrel off the official selling price of its flagship Basrah Medium crude loading from Basrah on the Gulf in May, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing a May 3 notice by Iraqi state oil marketing company SOMO.

Basrah Medium that would be loaded between May 1 and 10 would be priced at a discount of $33.40 a barrel below the OSP, and at a $26-per-barrel discount between May 11 and 31, according to the notice seen by Bloomberg.

Basrah Heavy for loading in May is being offered to buyers at $30 below the OSP.

If a buyer agrees to some of the offers, SOMO’s notice says that “force majeure shall not be applicable to this offer, given that it has been issued under existing exceptional conditions already known to all parties.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 15:00

Russia & Ukraine Declare Ceasefires That Will Begin On Different Days

Russia & Ukraine Declare Ceasefires That Will Begin On Different Days

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Russia said on Monday that it would observe a ceasefire with Ukraine on May 8 and May 9 to observe Victory Day, when Russia celebrates the Soviet Union's victory against Nazi Germany in World War II, but it’s unclear if the truce will hold, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by declaring a ceasefire that will start earlier.

"As of today, there has been no official appeal to Ukraine regarding the modality of a cessation of hostilities that is being claimed on Russian social media," Zelensky wrote on X.

via Associated Press

"We believe that human life is far more valuable than any anniversary ‘celebration.’ In this regard, we are announcing a ceasefire regime starting at 00:00 on the night of May 5–6. In the time left until that moment, it is realistic to ensure that silence takes effect. We will act reciprocally starting from that moment," the Ukrainian leader added.

Russia's ceasefire declaration came with a warning that if Ukrainian attacks targeted Moscow during Victory Day celebrations, the Russian military would respond with major attacks on the Ukrainian capital, a response to Zelensky suggesting Ukraine could hit a Russian military parade that will take place in Moscow on May 9.

"Should the Kiev regime attempt to implement its criminal plans to disrupt the celebration of the 81st anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, the Russian Armed Forces will launch a retaliatory, massive missile strike on the center of Kiev," the Russian Defense Ministry said.

"Russia, despite its capabilities, has previously refrained from such actions for humanitarian reasons. We warn the civilian population of Kyiv and employees of foreign diplomatic missions of the need to leave the city promptly," the ministry added.

On Monday, a Ukrainian drone hit a high-rise apartment building in Moscow. According to Russia’s TASS news agency, 26 Ukrainian drones targeted the Russian capital from May 2 to May 4.

Heavy Russian attacks hit Ukraine on Monday, killing at least six people in Kharkiv and two in the Kherson region, according to Ukrainian officials.

Ukraine has also stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting infrastructure on the Black Sea, causing massive fires and raining oil down from the sky.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 14:25

Trump's Project Freedom Likely Triggered By Oil Market's One-Month Countdown To Chaos

Trump's Project Freedom Likely Triggered By Oil Market's One-Month Countdown To Chaos

What is well established about President Trump's newly announced Project Freedom is that the U.S. military is helping "guide" commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz.

The battle over the Hormuz chokepoint comes as the oil market appears to be one month away from a potential "tipping point." Without a resolution, traders warn that global crude and refined-product stockpiles could be drawn down to dangerous levels, creating dire conditions for another violent leg higher in fuel prices that could spark economic chaos.

Last week, ConocoPhillips was the first to warn about imminent "critical shortages" of oil for some nations as the Iran war that has crippled global energy flows enters its third month.

"The biggest challenge we're about to face is that the markets sort of had a bit of a grace period initially when the tankers that left the Persian Gulf in late February were still on the water; now all of those have reached their destination," ConocoPhillips CFO Andy O'Brien told analysts last Thursday, touching on a critical subject we outlined to readers at the start of April.

Source

"We are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June-July time frame," at which point the dreaded "demand destruction" kicks in, O'Brien warned.

ConocoPhillips' ominous warning was followed very shortly by President Trump's Project Freedom plan to provide military escorts for ships through Hormuz. On Monday, two US Navy destroyers transited the waterway and entered the Persian Gulf after navigating an Iranian barrage of missiles, drones, and gunboats. This allowed two US-flagged ships to safely transit through the maritime chokepoint to safer waters.

Trump's Project Freedom appears to be a response to the dire warnings from oil giants and Wall Street analysts, who see demand destruction quickly approaching if the Hormuz chokepoint remains severely disrupted.

"We do not have months," Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil traders, told Financial Times.

Lasserre warned that "huge pain" is coming for some countries as fuel shortages appear imminent, adding, "It goes beyond gasoline at the pumps to industry shutting down, and you enter recession."

He gave a timeline of when the energy crisis could worsen: "The tipping point is clearly June. This is the point at which something has to give."

Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen issued a similar warning: if the US-Iran conflict continues through June, global buffers could be exhausted, with Brent crude futures soaring as high as $200 per barrel.

"The repricing is from today onwards. We expect significant upside to both crude and products," Sen noted, suggesting prices could climb towards the $150 to $200 a barrel range.

Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned, "We may be on the cusp of a sentiment shift as people are starting to realize that the US messaging may not represent reality." She noted that a continued Hormuz disruption this month could push Brent towards $140.

"From the start, the White House has been very successful in messaging that this would be a short war, and now it looks like something that could be sustained through the summer," Croft said.

So far, price increases have been contained by existing inventories, floating inventories, SPR releases, cuts in Asian demand, and refineries shifting output toward diesel and jet fuel.

Goldman analysts have warned of a petrochemical shock, and signs are already emerging of some Asian factories shuttering production lines amid the fuel price shock.

FT quoted an anonymous executive at a large commodity trading house as saying, "We had these buffers for the first two months. Refineries were able to switch the products that they were making because of the time of year. They really maxed out their jet fuel and diesel production."

Latest on Polymarket:

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 16% · No 85%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

It becomes entirely clear that Trump's Project Freedom to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint was likely a nudge from the oil industry, which has set a one-month timeline from a crunch point that could send the global economy into a tailspin.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 14:05

Ferrari Skids As Wartime Disruptions Hit Deliveries

Ferrari Skids As Wartime Disruptions Hit Deliveries

Ferrari shares fell as much as 3% in Milan after first-quarter results showed stronger-than-expected profit and cash flow, but the beat was overshadowed by a plunge in deliveries in the Middle East, as the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted shipments to one of the luxury automaker's key markets.

Ferrari's first-quarter results were broadly ahead of expectations on profit, revenue, and cash flow, but deliveries across EMEA, which includes Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, were the clear outlier.

Regional shipments fell to 1,458 units, down 14% year over year and well below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1,651, underscoring a wartime-disrupted supercar market.

Here's a snapshot of the first quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Ebitda EU722 million, +4.2% y/y, estimate EU710 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Ebitda margin 39.1%, estimate 39.3%

Ebit EU548 million, +1.1% y/y, estimate EU541.5 million Ebit margin 29.7% vs. 30.3% y/y, estimate 29.7%

Net income EU413 million, +0.2% y/y, estimate EU405.7 million

Industrial free cash flow EU653 million, estimate EU516.1 million

Diluted EPS EU2.33 vs. EU2.30 y/y, estimate EU2.30

Revenue EU1.85 billion, +3.2% y/y, estimate EU1.82 billion

  • Cars and spare parts revenue EU1.56 billion, +1.3% y/y, estimate EU1.54 billion

  • Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenue EU218 million, +14% y/y, estimate EU203.9 million

  • Other revenue EU74 million, +16% y/y, estimate EU70.6 million

Deliveries 3,436, -4.4% y/y, estimate 3,520

  • EMEA deliveries 1,458 units, -14% y/y, estimate 1,651 (2 estimates)

  • Americas Deliveries 1,030 units, +0.8% y/y, estimate 1,043 (2 estimates)

  • Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan 255 units, +7.6% y/y, estimate 253.18 (2 estimates)

  • Rest of APAC deliveries 693 units, +9.5% y/y, estimate 630.23 (2 estimates)

Ferrari confirmed its 2026 guidance, citing strong order-book visibility toward the end of next year.

Goldman analyst Christian Frenes commented on the guidance, noting:

2026 guidance confirmed with room for upgrades: Ferrari confirmed its guidance for FY26 revenues of ~€7.5bn (cons €7.57bn, GSe €7.89bn), adj. EBIT of >=€2.22bn (€2.25bn, GSe €2.32bn) and ind. FCF >€1.5bn (cons €1.56bn, GSe €1.61mn). We continue to expect Ferrari to upgrade its conservative 2026 guidance in 2Q/3Q26 as we expect mix to continue to accelerate towards 2H26 supported by the ramp-up of the F80 supercar and the 296 Versione Speciale. On current guidance, the FY26-30 CAGR to FY30 targets is in line with CMD guidance of 5% on revenue as well as the EPS level, with any upgrades implying management's willingness to grow above the medium-term growth floor.

Other analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Jefferies (buy)

  • Analysts led by James Grzinic say group has managed to limit margin unwind despite major FX headwinds and a quarterly trough in shipments

  • Say there "should be no surprise from today's reiteration of 2026 guidance"

JPMorgan (overweight)

  • Analysts led by Jose Asumendi write that it was overall a strong quarter

  • Say want to better understand how firm plans to offset some FX and fixed cost headwinds during conference call

Oddo BHF (neutral)

  • Analysts say the results are broadly in line with expectations

  • This may be a "slight disappointment" as Ferrari is usually expected to beat and messaging was "quite bullish" in a pre- close call

  • Focus will shift to any commentary in the call around effects of Middle East crisis

  • "Order book is described as 'further extending towards the end of 2027,' vs 'towards 2027' at the time of the FY25 results report," they note

Bloomberg data show that 77.4% of Wall Street analysts covering Ferrari have a "Buy" rating, while 22.6% are "Neutral" and 0% are "Sell."

Ferrari shares...

Ferrari is set to unveil its fully electric supercar, the Luce, later this month. As we noted last week, sports car buyers are shunning hybrids and chasing V-8s and V-12s.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 11:20

Job Openings Drop But More Than Offset By Record Surge In Hiring

Job Openings Drop But More Than Offset By Record Surge In Hiring

Two months ago, the BLS reported that January job openings unexpectedly soared by 400K, the biggest increase since November 2024, to 6.946MM, the highest since last October. Then, one month later it turned out the jump was even higher than that when the BLS published the February JOLTS print, when we learned that the January job print was revised massively higher by another 300K to 7.240MM from 6.946MM, a surge of 690K and the biggest since 2022; February job openings however promptly tumbled back to 6.882MM, or just shy of the 6.890MM estimate. Fast forward to today when we just got the latest, March, job openings print which saw another modest drop, sliding from the upward revised February print of 6.922MM to 6.866MM, or practically in line with estimates of 6.850MM. 

According to the BLS, the number of job openings plunged in professional and business services (-318,000) but increased in finance and insurance (+98,000). There were also increases in Private Education and Health services, Construction and Manufacturing jobs, offset by a modest drop in Leisure and Hospitality. 

Meanwhile, the slid in government and federal job openings continues.

The modest drop in March job openings, coupled with the bigger drop in unemployed workers means that there were 373K fewer job openings than unemployed workers in March, an improvement from the 649K in February.

It also means that after rising back to 1.0x in January, in March the ratio of job openings to unemployed dropped back to 0.9x where it has generally been since last summer.

But while the job openings number was largely in line with expectations, recent revision gimmicks notwithstanding, the real surprise in this month's print was the number of Quits and Hires, both of which surged from 6 year lows. 

The number of hires soared to 5.554 million (+655,000) and the rate increased to 3.5% in March, more than offsetting decreases in those measures the previous month. The number of hires increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+108,000), and edged up in professional and business services (+165,000) and in accommodation and food services (+124,000). Hires decreased in federal government (-7,000).

As for quits, in March the number of quits also jumped, if less forcefully, by 125K to 3.171MM, led by quits in real estate and rental and leasing (+19,000). 

Putting the hiring surge in context, the 655K increase in March hires was the best month since +4.1 million print recorded in April 2020 in the aftermath of the covid crisis, and the second highest ever. Stripping away the one-time covid shock, March was a record month for hiring which in light of everything else in the economy, does not really make much sense.

Since this number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the March payrolls report was so much stronger (178K) than expected.

Overall, this was a solid JOLTS report and shows that after some significant weakness in late 2025, US labor market has managed to stabilize in early 2026. Of course, the report also lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Friday's jobs report will be. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:57

UK Gilt Yields Near 30-Year Highs As Political/Geopolitical Fears Spark Trussian Chaos

UK Gilt Yields Near 30-Year Highs As Political/Geopolitical Fears Spark Trussian Chaos

Anyone has been in the bond markets for more than a minute remembers the fall of 2022 when UK PM Liz Truss was unceremoniously dumped by her own party after serving 45 days in office as the Gilts market collapsed at unprecedented speed amid economic chaos triggered by her 'mini-budget' (and multiple ministerial resignations).

The reason we reminisce is that this morning - after a long-weekend closed - UK Gilt yields are soaring once again... to their highest level since 1998 (and are a stunning 80bps above the Trussian highs) as worries intensified over local government elections and the impact of soaring energy prices on the economy.

While bond investors around the world have signaled their discontent with faster inflation and potentially higher interest rates, the UK stands out as the most extreme example.

As Bloomberg reports, the combination of Britain’s messy political landscape, with unpopular Prime Minister Keir Starmer likely to face a leadership challenge, feeble economy and strained government finances have made it a target for traders looking for a weak link.

“The market has one eye on the fact that Starmer’s days are numbered, and if not numbered then a further move to the left of the political spectrum is inevitable in an attempt to head off support for the Green party,” said Lloyd Harris, head of fixed income at Miton Group.

The UK 10-year yield has jumped 70 basis points since the start of the war, the biggest increase among a basket of developed markets tracked by Bloomberg over that period.

The UK's problems are both domestic and foreign.

This coming Thursday’s May local elections should keep focus high on the lingering risks of a flare-up in UK political or fiscal premium.

Goldman Sachs traders believe that options markets are right to price-in relatively limited vol premium for the day itself.

The larger risks are likely in the form of either leadership challenges to the PM, or a shift in focus back to a constrained fiscal position on account of the evolution of energy prices and Gilt yields throughout the energy shock, and both of these are likely less immediate.

And even if these risks do materialise, we expect the impact on Sterling to come as bouts of currency underperformance rather than a more concerted trend lower, consistent with the pattern over the past year.

However, in the minds of investors, big losses at the ballot box raise the chances that either Starmer or his replacement would have to boost government spending to win back disaffected voters, which would further pressure the UK’s finances.

On top of that, the UK’s reliance on imported energy has left it vulnerable to an economic shock from the war in the Middle East.

With oil prices stuck above $100, the fear is that faster inflation will force the central bank to hike interest rates even further.

Markets are now pricing in three quarter-point rate hikes this year, up from two last week.

Additionally, Bloomberg reports that some have speculated that the traditional buyers of UK bonds, like pension funds, aren’t as active in the market as they used to be, which is also helping to drive up yields.

For decades, British defined-benefit pension funds bought long-dated bonds to match against their liabilities, allowing the UK to extend the average maturity of its issuance well beyond peers. Many of those programs are now winding down.

While Starmer has outlasted Truss stay in office, the bond market appears to be demanding/predicting/fearing his fate may well be the same... and soon (for better or worse).

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:40

US New Home Sales Soar For 2nd Straight Month As Prices Plunged In March

US New Home Sales Soar For 2nd Straight Month As Prices Plunged In March

After collapsing in January (-17.6% MoM - worst since July 2013 amid weather disruptions), US New Home Sales have risen strongly for two straight months - up 8.9% MoM in February and up 7.4% MoM in March...

Source: Bloomberg

This lifted new home sales by 3.3% YoY, but the total SAAR remains below Dec 2025 levels...

Source: Bloomberg

New home sales have really gone nowhere in three years.

Median new home prices plunged in March from $407k to $387.4k - its lowest since July 2021.

That is the biggest gap between median and average prices on record...

Implying a relatively small number of large/high value sales (outliers or a long right tail) are dragging the mean upward, while most of the sales cluster on the lower side as the supply of new homes also plunged.

Mortgage rates are higher in the last month but had fallen notably during the reporting period for today's data...

By region, sales in the South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, increased 11.1%, while purchases in the Northeast rebounded sharply.

March contract signings fell in the Midwest and West.

Homebuilders, who have been using a combination of incentives and price cuts, saw a pickup in prospective-buyer traffic in March after severe winter weather limited buyer demand early this year.

So it appears the market is doing Trump's job for him (despite rising rates) as price-drops improve affordability (which is shaping up to be a key issue in the midterm elections in November.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/05/2026 - 10:30

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