Meloni: Italy Set To Ban Face Coverings In School, Limit Foreign Students Per Class

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Italy is moving to ban face coverings in schools and limit the number of foreign students per class, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced at a youth event on Sept. 19.

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome Austria's chancellor at the Palazzo Chigi in Rome on Feb. 10, 2025. Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images

The event was hosted by her political party, Brothers of Italy. It marks a push by her government to respond to the continuing influx of non-European immigrants, especially those from the Islamic world, with the goal of ensuring these children can better assimilate into Italian society.

"For us, anyone who comes to Italy and wants to build their future here must learn our language, understand our culture, and respect our rules," she said to a standing ovation. "It is the only serious way to welcome them."

One major element of this education reform will be making learning Italian mandatory.

"If there is only one child in a class who doesn't understand Italian, that child will likely be able to learn the language and integrate quickly with the help of classmates and teachers," she said. "However, if the number of children who don't understand the language becomes large - or even the majority - that is no longer integration; it is neglect."

Meloni declined to specify what that limit would be. But according to research institute Fondazione ISMU, currently 11.6 percent of students in Italian schools are foreigners, nearly 12 of every 100 students.

The banning of face coverings was included in the push for increased assimilation.

"You must go to school with your face uncovered, and in Italy no one, in the name of a real or supposed tradition, can decide that a young woman must hide herself," Meloni said.

She did not mention hijabs, traditional headscarves that do not cover the wearer's face, in her address.

If approved by the government, this measure will need parliamentary approval within 60 days.

Meloni's government has made an effort over the years to curb illegal immigration, winning legal battles to fast-track deportation and keep out illegal immigrants who may have entered Europe illegally through its territory but were caught outside of it

Italy has also taken measures against Spain, citing a "high risks to internal security" and a possible terrorist-infiltration threat, after tens of thousands of Moroccan nationals overran Spain's North African enclave, Ceuta, between July 30 and July 31.

Meloni recently reached a historic milestone by becoming the longest-serving uninterrupted Italian prime minister since World War II.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 03:30

America Spends More On Defense R&D Than Any Other OECD Country - By A Mile

On the OECD's yardstick - defense R&D budget allocations per $1,000 of GDP - the United States spends $3.64. The next country on the list, South Korea, spends $2.06, and nobody else clears a dollar.

Britain is third at $0.97, Germany fourth at $0.79, France fifth at $0.50. The average across the 20 countries ranked is $0.58; the median is $0.27. Greece, at the bottom, spends nine cents.

The gap is about to get wider: the Department of War's request for fiscal 2027 is $1.5 trillion, 42% above this year's funding.

As Visual Capitalist explains further, defense research and development is one way countries invest in future military capabilities, from advanced weapons systems to emerging technologies.

This visualization ranks selected OECD countries by defense research and development (R&D) budget allocations per $1,000 of GDP. The data comes from the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1, with figures covering 2024 or the latest available year as of August 2026.

Defense R&D has also historically played an important role in shaping civilian technologies. Research tied to national security has helped support breakthroughs in fields such as computing, aerospace, satellites, medicine, and advanced materials. However, the link between military spending and innovation is not automatic, as secrecy can impede knowledge diffusion, among other factors.

The U.S. Leads by a Wide Margin

The United States ranked first, with defense R&D budget allocations equal to $3.64 per $1,000 of GDP. In absolute terms, the U.S. is also the world's highest military-spending country by a wide margin, with 2025 spending totaling $954 billion and accounting for one-third of global military spending that year.

The U.S. allocation was nearly 1.8 times South Korea's and more than 3.7 times the United Kingdom's, which ranked second and third, respectively.

The table below shows defense R&D budget allocations per $1,000 of GDP for selected OECD countries:

Rank Country Defense Budget R&D Allocation per $1,000 of GDP 1 United States $3.64 2 South Korea $2.06 3 United Kingdom $0.97 4 Germany $0.79 5 France $0.50 6 Poland $0.49 7 Japan $0.42 8 Slovenia $0.35 9 Norway $0.30 10 Netherlands $0.28 11 Australia $0.26 12 Sweden $0.26 13 Spain $0.23 14 Estonia $0.19 15 Türkiye $0.19 16 Finland $0.18 17 Latvia $0.15 18 Belgium $0.10 19 Hungary $0.10 20 Greece $0.09

Although U.S. military spending as a share of GDP decreased in 2025 compared with the annual average between 2015 and 2022, the Trump administration's U.S. Department of War announced in April 2026 that its Fiscal Year 2027 (FY27) Defense Budget would request an unprecedented $1.5 trillion, a 42% increase compared with 2026 funding.

Included in that amount are plans to increase defense R&D spending from $16.6 billion in 2026 to $18.7 billion in 2027, with a stated focus on a general science and technology fund.

South Korea and Europe Round Out the Top Five

Allocating $2.06 per $1,000 of GDP to defense R&D, South Korea ranked second, making it the only other OECD country above $2.

South Korea has emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing arms producers and exporters, supported by sustained government investment in its defense industry.

Reflecting this growth, four South Korean companies appear in the SIPRI Top 100 list of global arms producers with the largest arms sales revenues in 2024. Their combined revenues increased by 30% from 2023 to 2024.

Following South Korea, the ranking drops quickly. The United Kingdom placed third at $0.97 per $1,000 of GDP. Between 2019 and 2024, the UK's Ministry of Defense tripled its net expenditure on R&D from £1.02 billion to £3.07 billion.

Germany followed in fourth place at $0.79 per $1,000 of GDP, while France ranked fifth at $0.50 per $1,000 of GDP. France and Germany are the European Union's largest and second-largest defense R&D spenders, respectively.

Most Countries Spend Far Less on Defense R&D

Across the 20 OECD countries shown, the average defense R&D allocation was $0.58 per $1,000 of GDP.

The median was much lower, at $0.27 per $1,000 of GDP, showing how much the top spenders skew the average.

Within the top 20, the drop-off is steep. The U.S. allocation of $3.64 per $1,000 of GDP was more than seven times fifth-ranked France's $0.50 and more than 40 times 20th-ranked Greece's $0.09.

Defense R&D intensity varies considerably among wealthy economies because countries may prioritize procurement, active personnel, operations, or research differently.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 02:45

All Eyes Are On Belarus Ahead Of The US' Reported European Military Drawdown

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The potential pullback of some US forces from the Baltic States upon the completion of its force posture review could be followed by European NATO if Russia agrees to pull back some of its forces from Belarus in order to then establish partial buffers in the post-war European security architecture.

NBC reported last week that the US is considering withdrawing up to half of its ~80,000 troops that are deployed to Europe along with large amounts of equipment. This coincides with European fearmongering led by Poland and France that Russia plans to ramp up its hybrid attacks against European NATO (E-NATO) into increasingly regular kinetic ones that it'll then deny. E-NATO is also undergoing rapid militarization led by Poland and Germany while deploying ever more forces to Russia's doorstep.

These sky-high NATO-Russian tensions might be reduced upon the US' potential drawdown of its forces in Europe depending on the success of the following creative diplomatic proposal. If some US forces are pulled from the Baltic States, then the US might coerce its E-NATO allies to follow suit if Russia does the same with at least some of its forces in Belarus, which they fear could be exploited by it as a launchpad into the Baltic States. The military-strategic logic behind this proposal requires some explanation.

Just as E-NATO fears that Russia could exploit Belarus as a launchpad into the Baltic States, so too does Russia fear that E-NATO could exploit the Baltic States as a launchpad into either Kaliningrad, Belarus, or "mainland Russia". E-NATO claims that its gradual military build-up in the Baltic States is to deter Russia while Russia's own regional build-up is arguably to deter E-NATO. The resultant security dilemma risks a major war by miscalculation or a (Ukrainian?) false flag and is why tensions must urgently be reduced.

The key to this proposal is Belarus, Russia's mutual defense and Union State ally with which the US is in the midst of a fast-moving rapprochement marked by phased sanctions relief in exchange for the release of so-called "political prisoners". President Alexander Lukashenko is receptive to Trump 2.0's outreaches in order to reduce multifaceted Western pressure on Belarus since the large-scale phase of the Ukrainian Conflict began nearly half a decade ago and to counterbalance disproportionate dependence on Russia.

They and Putin could thus agree to an arrangement whereby any planned American military drawdown from the Baltic States leads to a partial drawdown of Russian forces in Belarus, incentivized by more sanctions relief for both of them, conditional on E-NATO pulling back its forces from the Baltic States. Poland, where Trump is considering a permanent US military presence and which already commands E-NATO's largest army, could then become the bloc's military bastion if they redeploy their forces to there.

It was earlier explained why "Poland Would Be The Baltic States' Best Security Guarantor In NATO 3.0", namely due to geographic reasons, the aforesaid military factors, and its envisaged leadership of the Intermarium. If this arrangement is implemented, then it could turn the Baltic States and Belarus into partial buffers, both of which would remain under their allies' mutual defense umbrellas for deterrence purposes, which could spark progress on Ukraine's negotiated demilitarization for the same purpose.

If coupled with a Russian-American(-Polish?) mechanism for verifying compliance and addressing issues as they may emerge (e.g. Ukrainian drone flights over Belarusian and Baltic airspace), then tensions could be reduced and a basis for the post-war European security architecture would be established. All eyes are therefore on Belarus ahead of the US' reported European military drawdown since that country and its leader are the key to this vision for averting a major war in the most realistic way possible.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/21/2026 - 02:00

Shurk: Bush's Islamic Appeasement Greatly Damaged America

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

Last week, President George W. Bush sat down with his former secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, to discuss the September 11, 2001, Islamic terror attacks on the United States. While reflecting on his actions twenty-five years earlier, Bush went out of his way to defend Islam: "I also made it clear that Islam was a religion of peace, not a religion of war, and that these people subverted their religion." Bush's absurd statement echoed a similarly absurd statement he made days after the attacks when he told the world, "Islam is peace," even though the burned bodies of three thousand dead Americans strongly suggested otherwise.

There have been 50,000 Islamic terror attacks since 9/11. Without question, Islam is a cult of conquest, misery, and war.

Bush's Islamic appeasement angered me twenty-five years ago, and his continued appeasement infuriates me today. I cannot believe that the man who asked Americans to go to war against an Islamic menace that threatened (and still threatens) the world can be so intellectually shallow and morally obtuse. "Islam is a religion of peace," is a disingenuous stock phrase that is too cute by half. President Barack Obama loves to tell the same lie.

While Americans fought and died in foreign lands in an effort to keep Islam's homicidal evil from causing further harm to the United States, Bush and Obama resettled Muslims into America's heartland. Twenty-five years ago, the sight of a woman wearing a burqa in the Midwest would have shocked and worried passersby. Today, it is too common for anyone to feign surprise. Both the number of Muslims and the number of mosques in the United States have more than doubled since the Islamic terror attacks that changed our country permanently. Bush told Americans that we had to fight the terrorists "over there" so that we would never again have to fight them "over here." While brave American warriors died "over there," Bush and Obama betrayed those warriors' sacrifice by inviting more Muslims "over here," ensuring that Americans will continue to endure Islamic terror attacks until this existential threat is honestly recognized and neutralized.

President Bush is eighty years old, plenty old enough to have learned that he has no business telling Muslims what their "religion" means. If he were telling black Americans what it means to be black, critics would rightfully accuse him of "whitesplaining." Does Bush believe himself to be an expert on the Quran? Has he become a Texas imam or an "austere religious scholar" during retirement? If not, then why does he insist on telling Americans that Islamic terrorists "subverted their religion"? The opposite seems patently clear: Wherever the scourge of Islam stretches its poisonous tentacles, Islamic violence is certain. Muhammad was a pedophile who encouraged the rape, torture, and murder of innocents. It should be no surprise that pedophiles, rapists, and murderers consider that malevolent deviant a "prophet."

Writer Antonio Graceffo wrote a well-researched essay this month describing in detail how Muslims are persecuting and murdering Christians across Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Carrying out massacres against Christians with hammers, machetes, axes, and guns, Muslims are right now engaging in a genocide that corporate news media and Western governments entirely ignore. In Nigeria, the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Pakistan, Iraq, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, Algeria, and Indonesia, Muslims threaten Christian lives. These are the barbaric conquerors whom Bush defends as noble representatives of the "religion of peace." No self-described Christian should stay silent while Muslims slaughter Christ's followers around the world. Somehow, Bush remains quiet about Islam's unquenchable thirst for Christian blood.

Islamic bloodlust continues to exsanguinate much of Europe. A recent German report shows that foreign migrants (most of whom are Muslim) are responsible for 47% of all violent crime in Bavaria. Over 80% of North African asylum-seekers in Switzerland have been accused of committing crimes while in the country. While British children beg the government not to resettle illegal immigrants into their tiny villages, the United Kingdom is granting settlement or citizenship to one new migrant every single minute.

How is the British government combating this unsustainable invasion? The Home Office hands each Islamic migrant a nine-page booklet explaining that rape and pedophilia are illegal and that women have the same rights as men. In this behavioral guide written primarily for Muslims, the British government outlines how it is not okay to beat women, mutilate girls' genitals, have sex with children or unconscious women, or leave babies alone. The document further advises Muslims that "women must consent to sex in all situations" and "are allowed to work, study, and make their own decisions" without "permission from men."

In a section on rape, Muslim men are informed that it is not appropriate to threaten someone into having sex or to have sex with someone who is "asleep, drunk, or unable to respond." The British government warns Islamic immigrants: "If you have sex with someone without their consent, this is called rape. Rape is a serious crime in the UK. You could go to prison, lose your support and accommodation, and it will affect your asylum claim." Furthermore, there are no exceptions for child rape: "Even if they say yes, it is still illegal." Finally, Britain's new Muslims are reminded that it is not acceptable to intimidate or abuse people or take sexual pictures or videos of strangers without their consent. These "religion of peace" people sure do need a lot of help figuring out that it's not okay to rape or beat women and children! Perhaps the Brits should stop dropping them off in rural villages where they quickly outnumber the locals ten to one.

A rational person should have no problem understanding Islam as a threat to the world. President Bush held a position of immense power from which he could see Muslim atrocities as key features of that cult belief system. The fact that he remains too much of a moral coward to confront and denounce Islam's murderers, rapists, and terrorists with clarity and resolve has contributed greatly to the current moral confusion plaguing the United States.

We now have members of Congress who openly support Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. A terrorist-sympathizing Muslim is the mayor of New York City twenty-five years after his "religion of peace" friends flew hijacked commercial airliners into the Twin Towers and murdered thousands of civilians. Another terrorist-sympathizing Muslim running for the U.S. Senate from Michigan agrees with Muslim members of Congress that 9/11 was worse for Muslims who subsequently endured "Islamophobia." When Islamic terrorists aren't trying to murder Americans with their vehicles, bombs, firearms, or knives, they're rioting in the streets and demanding "justice" for Hamas animals who rape and kill women and behead and microwave babies.

Bush's inability to identify Islam as a murderous cult ideology has exacerbated the Islamic supremacy problem in the United States. In preparation for the twenty-fifth anniversary of 9/11 this year, public school administrators instructed teachers in Fairfax County, Virginia, to avoid associating the attacks with Islam. Teachers were even told to treat Muslims as heroes and to create "safe spaces" for Muslim students. Virginia's Democrat governor commemorated 9/11 by ignoring the act of Islamic mass murder and pretending that three thousand Americans died from some kind of inexplicable natural disaster. While New York City's Muslim mayor laughed during the 9/11 Ground Zero ceremony, New York's Democrat governor left early, so that she could appear on cable news. Meanwhile, Gen Z Americans are largely indifferent to the September 11, 2001, Islamic terror attacks on the United States. Some even celebrate Osama bin Laden.

Americans promised never to forget Islam's war against the West. Twenty-five years later, it is obvious that too many did forget. President Bush's moral equivocations are partially to blame for this travesty.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 23:30

Space Weapons Grabbed MSM Headlines, But USAF Secretary Hinted What Could Replace MQ-9 Reaper

The Air & Space Forces Association's Air, Space & Cyber Conference opened earlier this week at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland. Air Force Secretary Troy Meink's disclosure that the Space Force had launched "space control weapons" into orbit quickly dominated the news cycle.

Beyond the USAF's new space warfare capabilities, Meink's remarks about the service's plan to build out an upgraded unmanned aircraft fleet over the next six years warrant closer attention. His remarks offered potential clues about plans for a successor to, or an alternative operating alongside, the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper.

2024 image of American MQ-9 Reaper UAV brought down in Yemen’s Marib. ClashReport/X

The following excerpts from Meink's speech suggest a shift in unmanned aircraft procurement and hint that a Reaper replacement  - or perhaps a cheaper alternative - may soon be approaching: 

And this is not the only class of autonomous aircraft we are aggressively pursuing. As we saw in Epic Fury, ISR strike platforms have been essential. We have used MQ-9 and even now the ULTRA aircraft to great effect.

Building on these lessons, we are developing a family of low-cost multi-role strike platforms called the Mass Modular Aircraft, or MMAs.

MMAs will provide affordable, attritable, long-range strike, and we will be able to field them at scale. Our intent is to field 100 MMAs in 2029 at even a lower cost than the CCAs and a fraction of the cost of manned aircraft we build today. Then by 2032, 500 of these platforms will join our force operational fleet.

One platform worth watching is ULTRA, a Group 5 unmanned aircraft system developed by DZYNE Technologies, now part of Ondas.

ULTRA could assume part of the MQ-9 Reaper's surveillance workload, particularly missions that prioritize endurance and operating costs over weapons capacity. Its potential role is strongest in intelligence gathering, where extended flight times could reduce aircraft rotations.

In late summer, The National Interest examined the Air Force's search for a Reaper successor in an article titled "Why the US Air Force Wants a Replacement for the MQ-9 Reaper." Mounting Reaper losses in the Gulf conflict have increased the focus on a lower-cost alternative. ULTRA's capabilities support the case for a much cheaper alternative with longer endurance and, considered alongside Meink's remarks, may suggest that the alternative has been found: ULTRA.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 23:00

Leftists Rally To Stop Trump's Renovations To Crumbling Kennedy Center

Why is it a bad thing to repair Washington DC's crumbling landmarks and famous buildings?  It's only a bad thing when Donald Trump is doing it.  This attitude has led to numerous delays and problems with overall renovations across America's capital; from vandalism to direct interference with work crews to legal warfare as a way to stall various projects. 

It's the kind of "monkey wrenching" that is typical among communist organizations and it's designed to make political opponents look ineffective or incompetent through constant sabotage.  The goal of these people to to ensure that nothing good or positive is accomplished by their enemies.  No visual examples of improvement are allowed - The enemy cannot be seen as helping the public at large; only communism is allowed to "help the public".

The ongoing battle to finish renovations for the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts might seem like a minor issue, but it represent a much bigger conflict between the people who want to reform and rebuild American society vs the people who want to burn everything to the ground.  

In response to the Trump Administration's plans for much needed repairs to the Kennedy Center building, activists are once again turning a reasonable effort into an "act of evil".  Leftists claim the renovations cover for Trump to "destroy the Kennedy Center because he can't add his name to the building".

Huge crowd for the Hands Off the Kennedy Center demonstration in DC to send the message to Trump: Don’t you dare knock down this living memorial to a slain President. pic.twitter.com/v52ofBwEof

— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) September 18, 2026

Protesters have been surrounding the building in hopes of blocking workers from entering and completing the job.  President Trump, as chairman of the Kennedy Center board of trustees, has led a plan for a major two-year overhaul of the main building of the center. The project is funded primarily by about $257 million appropriated by Congress.

The board selected a full closure of the main building (rather than a longer, more expensive phased renovation) so work can proceed without interruption. Some newer and more modern sections of the center are slated to stay open for limited programming and as a memorial space.

"Hands off!"

"Hands Around the Kennedy Center" rally in Washington, DC. pic.twitter.com/o2g10JJNAz

— CSPAN (@cspan) September 19, 2026

Draft plans prepared by consultants and reviewed by the board include:

Exterior and waterproofing:  Polishing the Carrara marble facade, plaza-level waterproofing, terrace/roof work, garage and subgrade repairs, landscaping, and fountain restoration.   

Building systems:  Full replacement of aging HVAC, plumbing (described as decades old), electrical, fire-protection, elevator, and escalator systems, plus technical stage equipment. 

Public spaces (“front of house”):  New marble flooring, furniture, draperies, and lighting in the Grand Foyer and similar areas; relocated box office; new coffee shop; restroom upgrades (including a VIP restroom); wayfinding improvements.   

Performance venues:  Upgrades to the Concert Hall (including acoustical work and work around its pipe organ), Opera House, Eisenhower Theater, and smaller spaces such as the Family Theater, Terrace Theater, and Theater Lab—new seating, flooring, lighting, and related modernization. 

The monument has been falling apart for years.  According to government records, 456 leaks were recorded in the building from 2018 to 2023.   Water intrusion has caused severe decay to internal walls and sensitive electrical areas.  The cooling and heating for the building is 30 years old and needs replacement.  Wiring is rotting and elevators need new parts.  Some plaster ceilings have recently collapsed after heavy rains. 

Another warning we can’t ignore. A section of the Grand Foyer ceiling collapsed after this week’s storms. Thankfully no one was hurt. Decades of deferred maintenance made this inevitable.

Chairman President Trump has been right: America’s cultural center needs to close,… pic.twitter.com/Z1KrNsk78p

— The Kennedy Center (@TKCOfficial) September 5, 2026

Many of these problems were flagged during the Biden Administration, but nothing was done.  Leftists claim these ceiling cave-ins are part of a "conspiracy" by Trump to push forward the renovations, but similar issues have been cited for years, well before Trump entered office. 

The motive behind left wing interference in these projects is simple:  To agitate and obstruct until people give up on having nice things.  When the public gives up and society is awash in decay, communists can step in and argue that they are the answer.  In other words, they intend to hold the country hostage and prevent improvement until the public gives them the power they desire.    

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 22:00

Pentagon Releases UFO Files Examining Warp Drives, Stargates, & Cloaking

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

The Pentagon on Sept. 18 released its sixth batch of declassified and historical UFO files, including papers examining speculative concepts such as warp drives, cloaking devices, stargates, and wormholes.

In July 2025 in the northeastern United States, an eyewitness observed an intense bright light in their backyard as they parked their car upon returning home from work. This is a screenshot from the witness's personal video. Screenshot by The Epoch Times/Courtesy of the Pentagon

The documents, produced through the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications Program, examine subjects including discussions on ideas such as antigravity, negative-mass propulsion, and invisibility. The Pentagon cautioned that these were reference papers, not proof that the concepts are workable or validated.

The files span events from 1952 to as recent as 2025.

One 2010 file discusses "early experiments behind invisibility cloaking, describing several ways an object might be hidden from visual or sensor detection, including camouflage, transparency effects, and optical cloaking that bends light around an object."

Another 2010 file examined wormholes and stargates as "hypothetical spacetime structures within general relativity that theoretically offer a means of faster-than-light travel or communication."

A Pentagon research paper from the time describes injuries suffered by three healthy antenna engineers following what it called an "anomalous 'accident.'"

Within 72 hours, the engineers experienced skin heat and redness, fever, pain, headaches, numbness, nausea, diarrhea, hair loss, heart palpitations, insomnia, and anxiety. Two developed extreme light sensitivity and inflamed, bloodshot eyes. One showed signs of radiation illness and later developed indications of malignant changes.

The paper attributed the symptoms to accidental close-range exposure to a mixture of radiofrequency, microwave, and ultraviolet radiation. It characterized the investigation as "extensive, but controversial."

The files were published through the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters, or PURSUE, according to Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell.

Parnell did not describe the number or contents of the newly released files in the announcement. He said the Pentagon and other federal agencies are working on the next release and will continue publishing additional material.

Previous releases included a pitch involving a Hollywood actor to NASA and a 1957 report of a UFO sighting in Germany.

In 2001, space advocate Carol Rosin wrote a letter to a NASA official with a proposal to bringing her husband, actor Jon Cypher, to the official's office to promote a space initiative. Her sales pitch stressed Cypher's appearances on "Hill Street Blues" and "Major Dad," his Broadway performance in "Man of La Mancha," his ability to sing opera in four languages and his fondness for discussing space.

Rosin assured the recipient that their proposal would not cost NASA "a dime" and would require only as much time as he wanted. She then invited him and his associates to lunch or dinner.

The 1957 report was an FBI file from a U.S. citizen who was a war prisoner in Germany. He reported seeing a UFO while working in Germany in 1944.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 21:30

Bechtel Splits With TerraPower As Holtec Postpones IPO

Bechtel and Bill Gates-backed TerraPower are parting ways over the next phase of the Natrium reactor project in Wyoming, adding a construction headache to a sector already digesting Holtec’s postponed IPO.

According to a layoff notice reported by Washington Business Journal, the companies failed to reach an agreement and “have decided to move forward separately.” 

It's a hard flip from April when Bechtel was celebrating mobilization and field execution at Kemmerer Unit 1. And just last month, TerraPower was still targeting completion in 2030 for the project, which is a 345 MW sodium-cooled reactor plus a molten-salt storage system.

Nothing has pointed yet to an actual halt in the construction efforts. But this isn't exactly the cleanest spot to suddenly change contractors. The fact that the industry is in the midst of its greatest attempted comeback yet makes it significantly more awkward that the two leading nuclear parties are struggling to work with each other.

While there is a sufficiently large construction industry for TerraPower to choose a new partner from, the list becomes incredibly short when considering which EPC firms hold the actual talent and nuclear industry experience required to complete the project on time and on budget.

On the domestic side, Fluor is likely high on the list, as they are arguably the number two nuclear construction firm behind Bechtel. In April, it signed an agreement with X-energy for initial planning and project-definition work on the proposed four-reactor development at Dow’s Seadrift site in Texas.

If Bechtel does get outright replaced, though, a name higher on the list than Fluor is likely South Korea’s Hyundai Engineering & Construction. Under an August framework agreement, TerraPower selected Hyundai as their EPC contractor for up to eight future Natrium reactors, with completion, price and performance guarantees intended to support commercial financing.

Meanwhile, Holtec has supplied the week’s other unwelcome headline. As we covered in our Labor Day nuclear roundup, the company had marketed 50 million shares at $15 to $18 each, seeking up to $900 million.

Barely a week later, Holtec confirmed the postponement, citing deteriorating investor sentiment and uncertainty around data-center development. It intends to keep its SEC registration statement on file and says work on Palisades and its SMR program will continue.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 21:00

Trump Announces 'AI Force', Plans To Name AI Czar As US Pushes Tech Dominance

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

President Donald Trump announced plans to form an "AI Force" and appoint an artificial intelligence czar as his administration looks to promote the rapidly growing technology while using existing laws to address potential wrongdoing.

Trump argued Democrats are attempting to create public doubts about AI after criticism of data centers failed to gain traction.

"It all began with an attack on our Data Centers, until people realized how wealthy and prestigious they were for the Communities in which they were built," Trump wrote on Truth Social, pointing to what he described as higher salaries, lower taxes and safer streets.

Trump said his administration would resist efforts to slow the industry's growth.

"We will not in any way hinder or stifle the Growth of this incredible Industry. Rather, we will cherish it, help it, and watch over it, as it grows!" Trump wrote.

The president also acknowledged the potential for harmful activity involving AI, but said existing criminal and civil laws could be used to address misconduct.

"For this purpose, I am forming the AI Force, much like I did Space Force, which has been a tremendous SUCCESS, in my First Term," Trump wrote.

Trump said he would soon announce an AI czar to help oversee the effort, adding, "Only High I.Q. individuals need apply!"

The president portrayed artificial intelligence as a potentially transformative force for the American economy, comparing its significance to the Industrial Revolution and the internet.

Trump said AI could eventually have an economic impact equal to as much as 25% of U.S. gross domestic product.

"We are leading China, and the rest of the World, and I intend to keep it that way!" Trump wrote.

In a separate post on Saturday, Trump said many people do not think the term “artificial intelligence” is an accurate way to describe the technology.

“A far more elegant and accurate description of this new phenomena would be Superior Intelligence (SI) or, Extreme Intelligence (EI) or, Supreme Intelligence (SI),” Trump wrote.

“This is a Poll, and I would appreciate everybody voting! Which is the best name for this ever-growing ‘Revolution?’”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who is considering a bid for the White House, criticized Trump’s statements about AI on Saturday.

“Instead of regulating AI, he’s posting polls to rename it,” Newsom wrote.

“California is taking action. I just signed an executive order accelerating America’s first independent AI safety oversight framework.”

The president’s announcement comes amid calls from some lawmakers to further regulate the technology and local protests against the construction of new data centers.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 20:30

"Not Enough Raw Material!" - Resource Wars Put Tungsten In Crosshairs As Western Rearmament Supercycle Looms

Submitted by Almonty Industries CEO Lewis Black, 

The UK just invested £71m to restart a tungsten mine, with an option on half the output. Other governments will follow. I should be pleased – I've spent years arguing the West needs to fund its own supply.

The problem is I've seen what happens next. In 2008, Japan and South Korea poured billions into securing critical mineral supply chains. They funded projects across Australia and Canada. The result: no material produced. The money went to a generation of junior mining executives. I remember them on their boats in Monaco – very grateful, very happy. Governments have good ideas. The people they back to deliver on them are sometimes another matter.

The challenge is that a government is a jack of all trades – it can't tell a good mine from a bad one, so it hires engineers who write glowing feasibility reports with a waiver in the small print. And there is no shortage of people who call themselves management. Most of them are clowns who shouldn't be left alone with a box of matches.

Japan and South Korea learned. They stopped trying to pick winners and pushed the risk onto their industrial base – the companies that buy the stuff. Those companies know how to protect a dollar. If the new money follows that model, the checks might land somewhere useful this time.

Tungsten markets

Michael Dornhofer, ISBP – assessment as of 11 September, 2026

Tungsten prices in the USA and Europe stay unchanged for another week and are still around 3000 USD/mtu WO3. Reports from China show their domestic price trend moved to an upward tendency.

The reason is quite simple: There is not enough raw material! As the APT price in China is only about one third of the western price, Chinese APT producers are not willing to buy western concentrates on western price level. But without a significant amount of imported raw material, the industry is running short on raw material. Soon it will become clear whether the Chinese domestic prices will go up towards western levels, or China might reduce output of downstream products for export.

The coming weeks will show us. And there's another interesting development that even some "experts" overlooked. On 5 August, China placed several foreign entities under sanctions and banned them from operating in China. One entity on this list is the non-profit organization RBA.

RBA (Responsible Business Alliance) is the world's largest industry coalition dedicated to promoting responsible business conduct. RBA has more than 600 member companies including Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon etc. and runs the RMI (Responsible Minerals Initiative) program.

Nearly the entire western downstream industry insists on RMI certificates for their total supply chain. When, due to the ban of RBA, no RMI audits and certificates are possible in China, western downstream producers cannot accept any tungsten material or downstream products coming out of China.

China wants to replace the RMI audits by audits performed by CCCMC (Chinese Chamber of Commerce for Metals & Chemicals). But knowing that China imports thousands of tonnes of concentrate from countries like Myanmar and North Korea, and so material from these countries are in the tungsten supply chain in China, it's questionable who would trust Chinese audit certificates.

So, this easy-to-overlook new regulation in China could lead to an additional "firewall" between China and RoW, which might have a very significant effect on the tungsten world market.

Michael Dornhofer is founder of ISBP (Independent Supply Business Partner) in Graz, Austria. He has spent more than 20 years in tungsten, including 13 years at Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten, Sandvik's tungsten business, and has worked as an independent agent and consultant to the tungsten and hard metal industry since 2019.

From January, the door shuts

Since 2023, the Pentagon has barred Chinese, Russian, Iranian and North Korean tungsten from defense contracts. From 1 January 2027, that restriction moves upstream. It will no longer matter where the tungsten was melted or processed. What matters is where it was mined. Ore, feedstock, recycled material: if it started life in one of those four countries, it is out. The route that kept the loophole open – mine in China, process somewhere friendlier, sell it as non-Chinese – closes for good.

That's the American side. On the other side, producer countries are shutting their own doors. Zimbabwe banned exports of tungsten ore and concentrates in July, confirmed by the Ministry of Mines and reported by Bloomberg last week. Vietnam's industry ministry has drafted a proposal to pull tungsten off the permitted-export list entirely. Vietnam is the world's second-largest producer, at around 3,400 tonnes a year. If that draft becomes law, the non-China supply pool gets a lot smaller.

Zimbabwe barely produces any tungsten. The volume is negligible. But the pattern is worth watching – one more producer country pulling raw material off the open market. The list of places you can actually buy tungsten outside China keeps getting shorter.

Opinion

People ask why we don't branch out. Gold is on a run. Lithium gets headlines. Every commodity has someone telling you it's the one to watch. We do tungsten and molybdenum. We don't know anything else – and I would rather say that than pretend otherwise.

A vet treats everything that walks through the door. Dogs, cats, parrots. A doctor specializes. The guy who whips out your appendix does not do brain surgery, unless you're on a budget.

Mining is the same. Every deposit has its own geology, its own metallurgy, its own set of problems you only discover once you are underground. The companies that chase whatever commodity is fashionable learn everything at surface level and nothing underneath. We have been at this long enough to know what we don't know – and we don't know gold or lithium or anything that's not a refractory metal.

We are the doctor.

In the media

The analysts have arrived. Jefferies has initiated coverage of Almonty with a Buy rating, citing the tightening tungsten market and the growing need for supply outside China. With the shares up considerably over the past year, interest in both Almonty and tungsten has clearly moved on.

What matters now is execution – bringing new supply into a market that badly needs it.

*  *  *

On the tungsten news front, Almonty partnered with Rwanda's government last Monday, securing a foothold in Africa's largest tungsten-producing nation. By Thursday, the miner, which expects to become the leading Western producer of conflict-free tungsten (ex-China), tapped Swedish mining equipment maker Sandvik's Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG unit to process existing tailings from its Los Santos mine in western Spain.

As last week's news proved, Almonty's move is about bringing the most immediately available tungsten supply to the West as resource wars and China's critical materials chokehold on the world collide with the US rearmament supercycle set to kick off in the near term.

In other words, the West doesn't have the time to open new mines. 

via Christian Keller, Barclays' global head of economics research

Without critical materials, the West's rearmament supercycle, reindustrialization, data center buildouts and a nearly endless list of other projects would not be possible. Wall Street should refocus on producing miners that can deliver today because they're the ones providing the building blocks that make Western reindustrialization possible. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 17:30

Iran's Military Believes US Is Preparing To Resume Attacks

Iran's central military command has announced it believes the United States has made the decision to resume military attacsk on the Islamic Republic.

Citing the country's General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, state media IRIB states that "According to intelligence received, the US has once again decided - with the green light from certain regional countries - to resume actions against Iran during a joint meeting in a European nation."

Getty Images

At the same time Iranian leadership again warned US allies in the region that they'll be considered "complicit" if the US resumes it military assault on the Islamic Republic. The Iranian military HQ stated that "any mistakes will result in painful attacks."

Tehran further indicated Sunday that it is still awaiting Trump's response to its conditions for ending the war. Its chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed to AFP that Iran's demands were sent to Washington via the Qataris.

Starting Saturday night there was an avalanche of online chatter over potential new escalation, given President Trump abruptly cut short a visit to Camp David.

Some pundits saw in this a sign of some kind of imminent military action in the Middle East, also amid reports that extra military hardware is being sent to the region.

But others have suggested this is just setting up for another TACO moment, and reports of escalation is just the White House trying to instill fear and uncertainty in Tehran.

There's also speculation that Washington could be moving towards direct intervention in the Saudi-Yemen conflict, after the Houthis have been attacking key Saudi Aramco oil sites. Also, Riyadh has just come under attack for the first time of the war.

INSIGHTS: There’s a TON of very obvious signaling taking place right now for imminent massive escalation against Iran.

President Trump, just after Camp David, is returning early to the White House (and reported on by Barak…).

Bibi Netanyahu is cutting his U.S. Tour a day… https://t.co/ntsZHwJj00

— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) September 19, 2026

In the background is a new State Department warning to Americans to avoid all travel to the Middle East. A statement indicated that the Iran war could quickly worsen.

“This military conflict has the potential to escalate rapidly. Americans outside the Middle East should seriously reconsider travel to and through the region,” the State Department said late Saturday on X. It said that Americans currently in the region should "exercise heightened vigilance and be aware of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions."

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 17:00

Trump Says His Planned DC Arch Would Host Drones And Snipers

Via Headline USA,

President Donald Trump said Sunday that the massive arch he wants to build between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery would become a "top grade military complex" able to host drones and snipers while storing ammunition.

It is one more example of how Trump is insisting that his initiatives to beautify the White House and the city are also serving a defensive purpose.

Trump has been calling the new White House ballroom a "military complex" and arguing it is necessary for national security purposes.

The Republican president said in a social media post that he had agreed, at the "strong request" of the military, to convert the planned 250-foot-tall memorial arch "into a top grade Military Complex/Triumphal Arch, to house, store, and have the rapid ability to use large numbers of drones, plus Snipers, on both the roof and plaza areas, and additionally have and hold large quantities of sniper ammunition in storage."

Trump says planned arch to have ammunition storage and staging areas for snipers pic.twitter.com/Y1MpaPLO9J

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) September 20, 2026

After teasing it in October 2025, Trump has continued to promote his vision for a 250-foot triumphal arch situated between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery.

The arch will “celebrate the triumphs of the American people, inspire patriotism and love of country, and beautify our nation’s capital,” the Department of the Interior, as its sponsor, declared in its project materials.

The arch (one of several projects that the Republican president is pursuing to leave his lasting imprint on Washington) is currently awaiting final approval from the National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC), a federal review panel dominated by Trump appointees.

Among the others are the white House ballroom, renaming and renovating the Kennedy Center, refurbishing the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and rebuilding a golf course in East Potomac Park that could significantly reduce the public's access to running and biking paths.

Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) on Sunday criticized Trump’s announcement.

“Putting a drone launching site directly in the landing path for [Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport] is a stupid, dangerous, and unworkable idea,” Beyer said on X.

“Trump clearly expects to lose a lawsuit and therefore wants to set up a pretext to argue that the arch is tied to national security.”

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 16:30

With The Fed Behind Us…

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

With the Fed Behind Us…

The 10-year Treasury sold off after the Fed bounced Thursday, only to resume selling, finishing the week just under 5%. Stocks, which seemed to move up and down with Treasuries, decided to move to the beat of their own drum into the close on Friday. Similarly, for the past few weeks, it seems that if you knew oil was up/down, you could predict yields would be up/down. Not on Friday.

On this special day we will build on Thursday’s post-FOMC report: Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming. You might be wondering “what makes today special”? Well, for the first time ever, the T-Report has the same access to the White House as CNN, though not quite how we hoped it would happen. The ban definitely seems weird. Not sure what to make of it, and maybe it will be nothing, but it does seem strange at the very least.

In Thursday’s report we touched on:

• Oil and energy prices, which we will focus on more today.
• Japanese Yen. Support has broken the 155 level solidly (closing at 156.9), which is likely to cause it to weaken further as a lot of people were willing to bet on I Am the House Now Bessent.
• Compute Build and AI Spend. Increasingly, this is likely to be a focus of this week’s Trump/Xi summit.
• Space. We need to do more to focus on the opportunities and risks (commercial and national security) for space. Working with some of Academy’s GIG members to more thoroughly assess this, as the national security aspect seems to be gaining more attention.

The Houthis and Saudi Arabia

Should we be treating what is going on between the Houthis and the Saudis as a subset of the Iran/U.S. war? The Houthis are, after all, a proxy of Iran. The Saudis have been working with the U.S. and the President, so are they merely just an ally? A subset, an extension, or something in its own right?

While Iran is likely influencing the Houthis and certainly has given them the tools to cause havoc and mayhem, the Houthis seem to be taking the initiative. Maybe they see the U.S. as distracted with Iran. Maybe they see the U.S. testing the Saudis’ loyalty as an ally. In any case, it seems like they have seen an opportunity and are taking strides to set their agenda in and around the Red Sea. They have seemingly gone out of their way to avoid any attack against U.S. assets. Instead, they are hitting the Saudis where it hurts: their energy industry. And according to reports, that includes jet fuel facilities at the airport.

We cautioned about getting excited that the pipeline damage inflicted on the “alternative to the Strait” pipeline would be repaired quickly. One, the damage seemed more extensive than just to the pipeline. Two, and more importantly, there is no evidence that new strikes could be thwarted. It seems like we should start pricing in “disruptions” to the energy complexes that are outside the scope of the U.S./Iran conflict.

Will the Saudis be able to defend themselves? Will they “beg” America to get involved more directly? If they do, will the U.S. get involved? Will they try to disrupt traffic through the Red Sea? If so, how much can they do before the U.S. gets involved? I’d ask how much before Europe would get involved, but that seems like it is too unlikely to even think about (they probably should, but it doesn’t seem imminent).

Markets seem to only react badly when actual events affecting energy prices occur. Markets seem to react positively to any story, rumor, or hope that is positive. That relationship may need to change…

Even My Mother Knows Diesel Prices are High!

Usually, by the time my mother knows something is affecting financial markets, it is a pretty good time to fade the trade as it has become totally consensus. I’m not so sure about that this time.

Since the war began, we’ve been focused not as much on oil, but more on LNG and Diesel. Both are “tighter” than oil itself. More susceptible to supply chain disruptions. Less flexibility to work around. So rather than “fading” something we’ve argued that people should focus on, we should just embrace that people (including my mother) are now thinking about the dangers of rising diesel prices: for industry, transportation, and agriculture (and maybe the “back up” generators at some data centers).

We already busted through the “red circle” that we had in last week’s version of this chart.

This is a big deal and has created some chatter about restricting diesel exports from the U.S. As discussed in prior reports, that is not likely to work (even with restrictions, the domestic price isn’t likely to deviate too far from Global Price minus Transportation minus Storage). It is also likely to hurt U.S. companies going forward as customers entering into new contracts need to consider this possibility (plus there are likely to be some legal challenges).

Rising diesel prices are high on my list of inflation pressures that are mounting and difficult to control (unless you are in charge of the war efforts).

One Path to Victory with Iran

Anything could happen. We could all wake up on Monday to find that there is a “deal” that is on the table and close to getting done. We did have an MOU after all (though from day 1, it seemed that although we all saw a written version, there were “unwritten” versions or promises made, that were inconsistent and it seemed like neither side had really listened to what the other side had said or wanted). I won’t discount some sort of “deal” but it seems difficult to believe that it will be one the U.S. can claim as a major victory, if it happens now (given the current news flow surrounding the war).

The economic sanctions could pressure Iran into a deal. The blockade has been very successful. Iran seems to be able to “contain” the amount of trade going through the Strait against their interests (some is going through, but Iran is still able to scare many into not trying to run through the Strait).

• Can the increased focus on sanctions work? Sure, but in a matter of weeks? Hmmmm…I find it difficult to believe that a nation that kills its own citizens on an industrial scale will collapse in weeks, or even a couple of months. They have had experience with evading sanctions for decades, albeit sanctions not being enforced as strictly as they are supposedly being enforced now.
• It remains unclear how sanctions will work unless the U.S. is willing to go after China (and Turkey) to the full extent of what Bessent has outlined. So far, that doesn’t seem to be happening. It will almost certainly be a discussion point this week for Trump and Xi.

Sanctions are helping and might be enough to force a good deal, but that doesn’t seem like a “tomorrow” sort of event.

Increasingly, we are being asked about “knocking out” Iran’s infrastructure. Could that happen? Yes, but here is a quick assessment:

• Anything clearly military focused has already likely been hit and destroyed.
• That leaves “dual use” facilities. Facilities that have both a military use and a commercial use. Let’s say energy sources close to military facilities that also service communities. Some of these are viable targets as the military usage is enough to justify going after them. Similar for some bridges necessary for moving troops or armaments. But this can be tricky: on a legal and humanitarian level. Global perception, while not necessarily at the top of the admin’s concerns, should still be a concern.

This is a possible path for the U.S., but it could be a difficult balancing act of doing enough to force change, without doing too much reputational (or even legal) damage.

Taking the Islands that control the Strait: after the midterm elections.

One theory that General (ret.) Bellon discussed this week is taking action to secure the islands that control the Strait, culminating possibly with Kharg Island.

The rationale is:

• Wait until after the midterms, because risks to U.S. troops will increase, but it won’t be as politicized as it would be prior to the elections. Prior to the election, IRAN WILL HAVE MORE OPTIONS than after the elections. Basically, if Iran believes the midterms represent a hurdle to Trump, they can take different actions than they can after the midterms have occurred. There is no longer some “deadline” for Trump, giving him more flexibility and changing Iran’s response function. This makes a lot of sense.
• Sanctions may work to create a deal, but anything resembling a different regime is not likely. Taking the islands that control the Strait, and eventually Kharg Island itself, would cripple their energy industry and demonstrate real weakness on their part. It will be difficult to do without loss of further life, but when so many other options leave us with a “kick the can” option, the President may decide an option that has horrible costs may be better than going through this effort every few years.
• Signaling the will to do this might be enough to change Iran’s negotiating stance. Taking even one small, relatively insignificant island that is the easiest to defend may also change the calculus for Iran. The U.S. might win not by taking every Island, including Kharg, but the start of turning a threat into reality could be enough.

What to watch for:

• The U.S. moving vessels with top-notch medical facilities into proximity (less than 1 hour by helicopter, say as a guideline) would be a good indication. The military’s commitment to saving each and every life possible, and providing the best care possible, is real. So, they would need to move these vessels that can perform state-of-the-art surgery and operations, close enough to help any soldiers needing aid.

Of all the discussions that I’ve heard around a “post-midterm” victory, this path seems reasonable. Maybe the theory would even be that once Iran sees the ships moving in, and knows the President isn’t potentially hamstrung by upcoming midterms, it capitulates and looks for a deal? Maybe a bit optimistic, but it resonates with me.

Greenland Deal

The President announced a deal. I will reserve comment until we see the terms of the actual deal (so far, as has become the norm, there are all sorts of assertions from a variety of sides, with little documentation).

The deal could be a real game changer, as the President implied via Truth Social. It might just be an updated formulation of agreements already in place (never hurts to update something that was written long before the polar ice caps were melting, when computers were the size of a house, and rare earths and critical minerals weren’t required in vast amounts).

A win in any case, but how much of a win remains to be seen. And could it have been done without all of the “annex” / “take” Greenland rhetoric?

Trump and Xi

We will provide a full take on this on Tuesday morning, as we work with the GIG to figure out what is likely the highest priority on both sides.

A few months ago, trade, rare earths, and critical minerals would have been high on that list. A few weeks ago, Iran and global energy had to be high on that list.

Now, cyber, AI, and compute have to be highest on the list.

At first blush, on most of these issues, the U.S. seems to need more from China than they need from the U.S. Never a great way to enter into a summit with China, but we will delve deeper on Tuesday.

Bottom Line

I’m running out of time in Vermont, and it might be nicer to spend it outside rather than at my laptop (and the Wi-Fi is spotty at best).

Diesel and the Middle East are key to rates.

For now, I think the path for energy prices (and stocks) and rates (globally) is higher. The news flow has not been positive this weekend, and it is difficult to see that changing quickly as Trump seems to be focused on dealing with Iran from a “stronger” position after the midterms (not stronger in terms of having the support of the House and the Senate, stronger because the perception that he has a deadline is gone).

For compute, Cheap Chinese Compute remains a concern.

It is difficult to get all “warm and fuzzy” about the outcome of this summit for markets. More choppiness seems to be the order of the day, with a bias to the downside for me on the compute spend story (though good for their credit spreads).

We get to bookend this week with a Monday morning appearance on CNBC and Friday morning on Bloomberg to analyze the results of the summit!

Should be another interesting week that we all have to navigate. Even with the Fed behind us, we will be paying attention to the data that may determine the next move for the Fed, but Iran, the Houthis, diesel, rates, and the summit are all going to move markets (hopefully in accordance with how we are recommending positioning).

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 15:30

Grassley Urges Diesel Export Ban As Global Fuel Crisis Stokes Resource Nationalism Fears

"With diesel at $6.57 in Iowa, why doesn't Pres. Trump put an embargo on diesel exports like presidents in the 70s put embargoes on ag products bc food prices were inflated," Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley wrote on X late Saturday night.

Grassley warned, "High diesel prices ARE KILLING FARMERS' INCOME."

W diesel $6.57 in Iowa why doesn’t Pres Trump put an embargo on diesel exports like presidents in the 70s put embargoes on ag products bc food prices were inflated. High diesel prices ARE KILLING FARMERS INCOME #cornwatch #soybeanwatch

— Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) September 20, 2026

Grassley is not wrong about the global refining crisis that is squeezing farmers and anyone else who uses the industrial fuel that powers the economy, from truck drivers and freight operators to businesses across virtually every industry. 

The risk now is that an economic shock could materialize if fuel costs stay elevated, with the latest AAA data showing the nationwide average diesel price set to cross $6.50 a gallon.

Chatter on Capitol Hill about a diesel export ban has increased, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune telling reporters last Tuesday that he is "open to exploring" the idea.

Any ban on refined petroleum product exports would escalate resource nationalism and could initially boost domestic availability and lower U.S. wholesale prices, particularly near export terminals. The problem is that domestic relief would be uneven because shifting barrels to the Northeast or West Coast would be difficult.

Barclays refining and midstream analyst Theresa Chen warned last week, "We continue to view the possibility of an export ban as both detrimental to the US refining complex and unlikely to provide the intended price relief."

The ban could weaken production incentives. If retained fuel overwhelms domestic storage and distribution capacity, weaker refinery margins could eventually encourage lower refinery runs.

On top of that, foreign buyers of the industrial fuel would need replacement cargoes, which could exacerbate the global shortage and accelerate resource nationalism as other governments tighten control over fuels. Those restrictions could also extend beyond energy products to critical materials.

Grassley’s call for an export ban faces resistance within the Trump administration. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said last week that restricting oil or fuel exports would be unlikely to lower consumer prices and could provoke retaliation from trading partners.

The risk now, as Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned last week, is that a diesel crisis could trigger an economic shock similar to what happened during the 2008 energy crisis.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 15:00

Stolen $586,000 Copper Shipment Found Hours Later At Kentucky Warehouse

A load of copper worth nearly $600,000 was recovered on Sept. 11 after investigators followed a trail from Illinois to Kentucky and Ohio, wrapping up the initial search only about eight hours after the theft was reported, according to Yahoo News.

The case began when a shipment scheduled to travel from DeKalb, Illinois, to Rock Hill, South Carolina, never made it toward its intended destination. Authorities believe whoever collected the freight had presented themselves as an established trucking company, using genuine business information to make the pickup appear legitimate.

The breakthrough came from location data tied to Schneider National equipment involved in the haul. Rather than heading southeast toward South Carolina, the freight was traced to Prestonsburg, Kentucky, where police found the entire six-pallet copper shipment inside a warehouse. Three people were detained in Kentucky.

Photo: FreightWaves/Yahoo News

Meanwhile, investigators continued following the equipment used to move the load. A Schneider chassis and container were located in Chillicothe, Ohio, while state troopers separately intercepted the tractor associated with the pickup. One additional person was taken into custody in Ohio.

Yahoo reports that the operation involved authorities in Illinois, Kentucky and Ohio, along with Schneider National and CargoNet, which had helped flag the theft. Information about the truck, trailer and driver was quickly distributed among agencies as investigators attempted to follow the shipment across state lines.

Police are now examining whether the incident may overlap with another theft involving Schneider equipment and whether the people or trucking identities involved could be part of a wider cargo-theft operation. So far, authorities have not publicly identified the four people detained or disclosed what charges they may face.

The episode also illustrates how freight theft has evolved beyond simply stealing unattended cargo. Criminals can use authentic company information to appear legitimate long enough to take control of valuable shipments. In this instance, rapid reporting and tracking technology allowed investigators to locate both the cargo and much of the equipment before they could disappear further into the supply chain.

* * *

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 14:00

Ocean Container Freight Costs Explode, Rivaling COVID-Era Crisis Highs

A worsening ocean freight price shock is reviving concerns about the supply-chain disruptions seen during the pandemic and the 2024 Red Sea crisis.

If continued through the fall and winter, higher shipping costs could intensify inflationary pressure, squeeze corporate margins, and weaken growth. Together, these factors raise the risk of a broader economic shock, particularly if diesel prices remain elevated. 

Bank of America retail analyst Lorraine Hutchinson warned in a note Saturday that ocean freight rates have jumped 201%, approaching the 250% spike seen during the 2021 container ship shortage. Meanwhile, AAA national average diesel prices near $6.50 a gallon are crushing truckers' margins and boosting rates on the nation's highways. 

"Most contracts are set in the spring, but we're watching this for those using spot rates and as a potential headwind for 2027," Hutchinson said.

Beyond container rates, the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks freight rates for several vessel classes, including Capesize, Panamax and Supramax vessels, has jumped to December 2023 highs. 

"We see the current surge as something of a perfect storm, with vessel supply tightening and demand firing in both basins at the same time," Thurlestone Shipping analysts said.

A prolonged freight price shock could carry today's shipping squeeze into the 2027 contracting cycle, exposing businesses to higher transportation costs and increasing pressure to pass those costs on to consumers.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 13:00

FBI Using AI To Stop School Shootings; Doomers Want It Paused

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

While the same 'current thing' leftists who spent years on climate, oil and "Palestine" now chants that AI will wipe out the human race, FBI Director Kash Patel just announced that the agency is using the technology to actively prevent mass shootings, including school attacks, before they happen.

Patel said artificial intelligence helped the bureau prevent possible school shootings in North Carolina and about half a dozen other states, and that he has increased the FBI's use of AI by 605 percent.

That is the version of AI that the pause-and-treaty crowd does not want discussed.

? JUST NOW: In a MASSIVE win, FBI Director Kash Patel announces that half-a-dozen states' possible school SH00TINGS were thwarted through the use of AI

One was just stopped in North Carolina ??

"We've done it in North Carolina and about half-a-dozen other states to prevent... pic.twitter.com/SKzwJIkvnV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 19, 2026

The comments match what he told the Senate Judiciary Committee days earlier. When he took the job, the bureau had two test use cases for artificial intelligence. "We just hit our 140th, that's a 605 percent increase since I've been in this seat, to process information to triage intelligence, analyze, and get this information out to our local partners."

This is not a science-fiction sermon. It is tip triage.

Patel has been making the operational case since spring. On Sean Hannity's podcast he said the old FBI treated modernization as an afterthought.

"AI was never used at the FBI till we got there, literally crazy," he said. "I'm using it everywhere."

The bottleneck was volume. The National Threat Operations Center takes thousands of tips a week. "If we had just humans look at it, we would never sift through them all." He put the question more sharply still: "What's the point of collecting terabytes of data if you can't sift through it?"

The North Carolina case is the one he keeps returning to. "We stopped a school massacre in North Carolina because we got a tip and we were able to triage it with artificial intelligence." A separate New York school threat, he said, was disrupted after "a tip from our private-sector partners who are building out AI infrastructure."

In a Fox News op-ed he described the machinery. When a call hits NTOC, AI generates a transcript, drafts a summary of the threat, scans open cases for matches, and assigns a lead value so the hottest tips rise first.

"This specific threat intake process helped the FBI quickly act and stop an attacker plotting a mass shooting at a North Carolina preschool," Patel urged.

The same overhaul, he wrote, helped the bureau identify and locate 6,300 missing children last year - a 30 percent increase - and arrest 2,000 abusers, a 20 percent increase. In a Richmond case, facial recognition tools were used to pull 8- and 12-year-old children away from a would-be abuser now facing 50 years.

The tools are being used to rank leads and get them to agents and local partners before someone walks through a school door.

It's not something that has been considered by the doomer leftists now literally calling for AI to be 'switched off'.

San Francisco and London just got an NPC software update. The banners changed. The wardrobe did not.

Dozens marched from OpenAI's Mission Bay headquarters to Anthropic's offices and on to San Francisco City Hall, demanding Mayor Daniel Lurie declare a local "AI state of emergency." Chalk on the pavement read "Extinction is on the table."

Organiser Hunter Glenn told reporters, "I was pretty scared about the possibility of extinction for awhile." In London, "PauseAI" and "Pull The Plug" rallies formed after Anthropic alignment lead Evan Hubinger said he personally believed there was a greater than 10 percent chance AI could "kill all humans" within a decade. Their slogan: "10% chance of extinction? 100% chance of resistance."

Scott Jennings had already mapped the rotation. "It's always the same apocalyptic crowd moving from one issue to the next. Responsible guardrails are one thing, but handicapping American innovation while China speeds ahead with zero regulation isn't sound policy - it's just foolish."

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave the extinction industry a simpler number. There is a "0% chance" the world ends in 2030. "2030 is not going to be the end of the world."

A U.S. pause would not freeze the technology. It would freeze the labs already winning and hand the century's defining stack to Beijing. Europe sold GDPR as virtue and now hosts none of the world's dominant labs.

Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale told Jesse Watters the scare is not civic caution. It is a campaign.

"These guys don't believe in God. They're atheists, but they've created something they believe is God," Watters said, laying out Lonsdale's point. "This is their Messiah, and this is their end of the world."

Lonsdale was direct. "There is a coordinated campaign to make the American people afraid." San Francisco, he said, dropped Christianity and still wanted a messiah and an apocalypse. "If you give up religion, you want some kind of messianic complex, some kind of big thing to believe in. These effective altruists - this is their Messiah, this is their end of the world, this is their obsession."

An industrial revolution is coming that would be "amazing for America if we get it right." The people trying to stop it, Lonsdale said, "hate America."

That theology now has a policy shop. Bill Gates is back on the emergency circuit calling AI an "alien intelligence."

"I don't think any government is nearly as deep on this as they have to be," he told Reuters. "Governments are way behind on this one." Then the Hollywood script: "There's all sorts of movies where some aliens are coming, and magically the US and China and everybody comes together to solve the problem. AI is kind of like this alien intelligence. It's here, and we better do like it shows in those movies."

On a podcast he went further. "It's not the role of the industry to self-regulate or understand the whole-of-society impact that comes out of AI." He wants a permanent cross-border watchdog stitched from nuclear inspections, aviation rules and ozone treaties - and a meeting with Xi Jinping. In the same news cycle his foundation pledged $1 billion over two years to spread AI through schools, clinics and farms. Alarm in one hand. Pipeline in the other.

President Trump has already rejected the slowdown. "We're leading China in AI," he said. "Whoever wins AI, wins." A lot of the horror stories being shopped around, he added, "won't happen."

Trump also answered the doomer circuit with an appointment, not a pause. He said he is forming an "AI Force," modeled on Space Force, and will name a high-IQ "AI Czar" to keep the United States first while the left's latest scare campaign is treated as what he called it: another hoax.

"AI is the next Industrial Revolution, or Internet, but will be even larger and more impactful, possibly as much as 25% of our Country's GDP," he said. "We are leading China, and the rest of the World, and I intend to keep it that way."

"We will not in any way hinder or stifle the Growth of this incredible Industry. Rather, we will cherish it, help it, and watch over it, as it grows," Trump added, noting that bad actors can be handled with the criminal and civil courts already on the books - not a Gates-style global leash.

? BREAKING: President Trump announces he will be appointing a HIGH IQ "AI CZAR" and launches the "AI FORCE"

Trump says we will UNLEASH AI and that the propaganda will fail

All of this will be geared towards not only BUSTING anti-AI hoaxes but keeping America number one. LET'S... pic.twitter.com/Cy3T8R1cBK

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 19, 2026

One future is the FBI using models to transcribe a threat call, score it, match it, and get a cop to a North Carolina preschool before the shooting starts. The other is a global committee, a Netflix doom documentary sold as the new Inconvenient Truth, and a street mob that needs the next wipeout the way some people need a weather report.

China is not holding a pause-and-pray summit. Chinese firms have been accused by U.S. officials of stripping American models at industrial scale. Beijing's spy chief has treated AI as a Party-control problem, which is another way of saying the CCP wants the weapon.

Patel's point is narrower and harder to slogan away. Used by cops, under the law, the same class of tools the doomers want parked under an international inspectorate is already being used to find missing kids, rank tips, and stop school plots. Every plot that never makes a headline is a child who goes home.

America can build the thing, police the abuse, and keep the lead. Or it can let the extinction church write the rules while the bureau that just started using the tools is told to wait for permission from a committee Gates wants to staff.

* * *

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 12:30

Big Oil Backs Mazama's $135 Million Bet On Superhot Geothermal

Mazama Energy announced $135 million in new capital with an oversubscribed Series B that included ConocoPhillips and Shell Ventures. With Devon Energy initially backing Fervo in 2023, a pattern is emerging with oil and gas veterans placing their bets in the geothermal industry. 

Some of the techniques developed by the O&G industry are translating well to geothermal projects. Horizontal drilling, well completions, and underground reservoir expertise are finding new purpose in an industry that is far more politically neutral than the fossil fuel industry ever could be.

Geothermal very well could be one of the AI-powered trades that is yet to be fully discovered. The Trump administration has thrown its full support behind the technology, as it holds some of the best qualities of nuclear energy without the [unfounded] radiation concerns.

Traditional geothermal, such as the established technology used by companies like Ormat, taps naturally occurring reservoirs of hot water and steam, making these sites very dependent on specific geology. The newer technology being utilized by companies like Fervo and Mazama engineers underground pathways to allow for injected water to circulate through hot rock and force the heat back to the surface. 

Mazama wants to push those techniques into much hotter rock. The company says its Oregon project demonstrated an engineered geothermal system at 629°F in 2025. Its second well, Athena, reached 10,350 feet in 15 drilling days this month, roughly 80% faster than the earlier well, and is drilling deeper toward 750°F.

The company highlights the benefits of the higher temperatures in their press release from the capital raise:

"Reaching 750°F (400°C) delivers up to 10 times the power of a conventional 390°F (200°C) well, owing to the much higher energy density of supercritical water and improved reservoir productivity. This allows Mazama to deliver projects using 75% less water and drilling 80% fewer wells than conventional geothermal developments."

According to Mazama’s announcement, the financing will support the DOE-backed Project Ceres, targeting 15 MW of electrical capacity per well and a power-generation demonstration in 2027.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 12:00

The Fed Rate-Hike Won't Fix The Inflation It Targets

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The Fed did what the bond market dared it to do. This past week, in a unanimous vote, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first Fed rate hike since 2023. The stated reason was “price stability.” Yet this is a Fed whose own chairman has spent the past year insisting that real growth does not cause inflation, and that the drivers of this one sit largely outside the central bank’s reach. As we argued in prior Bull Bear Reports on the debt-and-inflation problem, that tension is not a footnote; it is the entire story of the Fed rate hike, and something worth exploring more deeply.

Make no mistake, it was the bond market that forced the issue. Such is interesting when you consider that Kevin Warsh wants the market to create the signal. Well, he got what he wished for. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to roughly 5.01% around Wednesday’s decision, a level not seen in 19 years, while the 30-year cleared 5.35%. In other words, the market’s message was clear: “Raise rates, or we will.”

What The Fed Rate Hike Actually Does

However, what gets lost in transmission is what the Fed is actually trying to achieve through interest rate policy. The mechanism behind rate hikes or cuts is a demand story, nothing more. Raising the policy rate raises the cost of money across the system. Credit-financed demand cools first, mortgages, auto loans, capex, anything that lives or dies on the cost of borrowing. As that demand softens, the economy loses some of its power to bid prices higher, and the pace of increase eases. “Price stability,” in the Fed’s own framing, is really “expectations” stability.

Now, notice what the Fed’s tool never touches, and this was mentioned by Warsh on Wednesday. A higher Fed funds rate does not drill a well, end a war, or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed rate hike works on one side of the ledger, and one side only: the demand side. Such is the design, and such is also the limit. When the inflation in front of you is a supply problem, a demand lever pulls on the wrong rope.

What Warsh Means By “The Fed Can’t Fix Prices”

However, this is where most of the mainstream commentary gets sloppy. The Warsh school separates two things that the word “inflation” quietly blends together.

1. There are relative prices, set in the real economy by supply and demand for actual goods, and then
2. There is the monetary unit, the purchasing power of the dollar itself.

An iPhone gets cheaper because of globalized production. Oil prices rise because of a war that threatens supply lines. No policy rate produces either outcome.

When Warsh implies the Fed cannot fix prices, the defensible version of that claim is narrow and correct. Monetary policy cannot repair a supply-driven, relative-price shock. It can only compress demand until something breaks. Milton Friedman’s line, that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” is usually quoted, incorrectly, to argue the opposite. However, read that carefully, because it makes Warsh’s point. Friedman described the slow erosion of the currency over the years (driven by a general rise in inflation amid economic growth), not the price of gasoline during a Gulf conflict. The Fed owns the monetary unit, but does not own the oil market.

Look at the composition of the number the Fed is fighting.

Headline ran 3.4% in August, but energy alone ran 16.9%. Strip the war out, and the overheating story gets much harder to tell. That is not a demand economy running too hot. That is a supply line on fire.

Then Why Hike Into A Supply Shock?

Fair objection. If the Fed cannot produce a barrel of oil, the Fed rate hike looks like “theater.” It is not, and the reason is CREDIBILITY. A central bank tightens into a supply shock for three defensible reasons, none of which involve lowering the price of crude.

1. To keep inflation “expectations” anchored, so a one-off energy spike does not get built into wages and contracts and turn into the self-sustaining spiral of the 1970s.
2. To protect the institution’s word after the “transitory” humiliation of 2021, when the Fed looked through a shock and watched it metastasize.
3. Because the cost of being wrong twice dwarfs the cost of over-tightening once.

The dot plot shows the committee has made that trade. Sixteen of eighteen officials now see the possibility of at least one more hike this year, and four pencil in two.

“Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” – FOMC statement, September 16, 2026

Read that quote once again. The committee expressly said that it can steer prices with rates. However, history tells us more precisely that the Fed can reliably steer demand only. Those are not the same claim. Fighting a supply shock with a demand tool is the textbook recipe for stagflation, slower growth, and higher unemployment without curing the thing that lit the fire. Such is the box Warsh is in, the same Volcker-versus-Burns dilemma, now his to own.

Here is a clearer way to see the potential danger that Warsh is walking into. The same dot plot that pins the neutral rate at 3.1% now has the funds rate at 3.875% and climbing toward a 4.1% median by year-end. Once you strip away the language, the Fed is already about 90 basis points into restrictive territory, with more to come, even as Warsh insists conditions are not “broadly restrictive.”

That setup leaves the Fed with absolutely no margin for error. In the current environment, the Fed is hiking rates to offset an oil price spike. If energy costs continue to weigh on growth and the Fed continues to tighten, it will accelerate the deterioration. If oil reverses, the inflation impulse fades quickly, and the Fed’s hikes accelerate the economic bite. Both roads end at the same address, a Fed caught in a policy mistake, scrambling to fix the overshoot.

What Usually Happens To Stocks After A Hike, And Why This Time Is Different

The bulls have a comforting statistic ready for this week, and it is a real one. Going back to the late 1980s, the S&P 500 has slipped only modestly immediately after a first Fed rate hike, roughly 2% over the first three months, then recovered to average gains of nearly 9% over the following year, according to Goldman Sachs. LPL Financial puts the average 12-month gain at 6.7%, with a median of 10.7%. The tidy conclusion is that rate hikes are buying opportunities.

However, as is always the case, beware of “averages,” which in this case may well be lying to you. The reason I say that is due to the composition. The Fed almost always hikes into a strong, demand-driven expansion. It rarely hikes into a supply shock. When it has, the record is far uglier, and the damage tends to arrive late, once the energy spike feeds inflation and the tightening starts to bite.

After the 1973 oil embargo, the S&P fell 11% in a month and 41% over the next year. Another, more recent example, was when the Fed tightened amid the energy-and-inflation shock of 2022. During that period, the index lost roughly 19% for the year and remained underwater well past 12 months. Every “hikes are bullish” study carves 2022 out as the exception. Today, it is most likely not the exception, but the template.

One thing that matters is the pace of the Fed rate hikes. Charles Schwab’s strategists found that the S&P returned 10.5% over the year following slow tightening cycles and lost 3.6% after rapid ones. So what should you actually expect over the next year, hiking into a war-driven supply shock with the 10-year near 5%? Our read sits below. It is a judgment anchored in that history, not a backtest.

In the current market, the leadership is not subtle. When the Fed hikes amid an energy shock, money tends to flow to where inflation is a benefit rather than a hindrance. For example, in 2022, as shown below, energy led the market up by about 48%. This suggests that investors, today, like then, should favor energy, materials, and defensives with real pricing power, as well as staples and health care. On the other side, underweight long-duration assets such as technology and communication services, as well as rate-sensitive discretionary and real estate names. However, there is always a caveat. If oil breaks and the shock fades, that map inverts, and today’s laggards lead the way back.

Such is the danger of leaning on a historical average built almost entirely on the wrong kind of hike.

What This Means For Markets Over The Next Few Months, And How To Navigate It

So how do you navigate it? Rates are “higher for longer,” and the committee has told you plainly it is willing to go again. The 30-year above 5.35% and the 10-year near 5.01% raise the bar that every equity, especially long-duration growth, has to clear to justify its multiple.

The forecasters are already marking that reality. Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400 on the decision, flagging the risk of a downturn over the next three to six months as yields climb on energy. We would take the warning seriously without treating it as gospel.

Let’s focus on the bond market, which is the harder call right now, and the argument cuts both ways.

The bull case is a good one.

“The term premium has expanded to levels that historically pay investors to own duration, and a hike that slows the economy is the classic tailwind for long Treasuries. If Warsh restores “credibility” and growth cools, the long end rallies, and this past week’s high yields will look like a gift.”

The bear case, however, also has teeth.

“The 30-year sits at a 19-year high for a reason: relentless issuance against a $40 trillion debt, layered on top of supply-driven inflation. Rate hikes can not fix that. That tail does not disappear either just because the Fed moved a quarter point. So, this argues that investors should take exposure at the point where the term premium is best paid for the risk. That is in the belly of the curve, with 5-7 year durations.”

Crucially, none of this argues for abandoning equities. It argues for respecting a market regime in which the risk-free rate finally competes with everything else. It is an environment where the biggest driver of “price stability,” the Fed cited, is a war it can’t control. The deeper problem lies one level down. The deficits and debt that we repeatedly flagged are the real long-run engine of price stability. Monetary policy sits downstream of all of it.

The Fed can raise the price of money. It cannot lower the price of a war. Size the portfolio for the difference.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 11:30

Bessent And He Lifeng Open High-Stakes Trade Talks Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at JPMorgan Chase's Manhattan headquarters on Sunday for a critical round of trade negotiations. The all-day session marks the final ministerial push before President Donald Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington beginning September 24.

JPMorgan is not involved in the negotiations, though Bessent previously invited CEO Jamie Dimon to speak at a Treasury-hosted G20 finance leaders meeting in Asheville.

This negotiating channel previously engineered the Busan truce, which capped bilateral duties near 20 percent after reciprocal tariffs spiked into triple digits. The administration has since rebuilt its tariff structure under alternative statutes, while broader excess-capacity tariffs remain paused until after this week's summit. The existing truce expires on November 10, adding urgency for both sides.

The Core Negotiating Agenda

Three primary issues dominate the current talks, alongside geopolitical tensions over Taiwan and Iranian oil:

• Rare Earths and Critical Minerals: Beijing committed in Busan to resume shipments of critical materials, but a senior U.S. official noted that China's performance has fallen short. Disruptions to these supplies significantly impact global manufacturing and technology. Beijing holds the leverage of offering more export licenses but has yet to restore pre-restriction volumes.
• Artificial Intelligence: Negotiations will cover both open-weight and proprietary closed-weight AI models. Low-cost Chinese open-weight systems are increasingly adopted by U.S. developers, prompting Washington to push for bilateral guardrails against misuse by non-state actors while avoiding a complete bifurcation of the tech ecosystems.
• Unresolved Trade Commitments: Negotiators are revisiting items left hanging from Trump's May visit to Beijing. This includes efforts to reduce tariffs on non-sensitive goods, finalize Chinese agricultural purchases, and address proposed U.S. tariffs linked to industrial overcapacity and forced-labor concerns.

Broader geopolitical issues continue to shadow the economic track. The conflict involving Iran and its impact on energy supplies has emerged as an unexpected major pressure point in the talks. Additionally, Washington continues to monitor the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China, which will likely feature heavily in the main summit.

Expectations and Market Impact

The likelier outcome is diplomatic management rather than a major structural pact. Both administrations have a strong interest in avoiding a renewed escalation of trade tensions and preventing the Busan framework from falling apart before November.

Markets will look for any formal extension of the November 10 date, verified increases in magnet export permits, and whether agreements on AI guardrails contain binding terms.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 11:05