Comcast Plunges As CFO Warns Broadband Subscriber Bleeding Won't Stop

Comcast shares tumbled after CFO Jason Armstrong warned at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference that broadband subscriber losses would not improve this quarter from a year earlier.

Bloomberg first reported Armstrong's comments, which sent shares down as much as 8.1% around 11:16 a.m. ET, their largest decline in months.

Armstrong told the audience at the conference in San Francisco, California, today that he still expects broadband subscriber losses to improve for the full year, although quarterly results will vary. He blamed part of the pressure on what he called "irrational fiber pricing."

Analysts tracked by Bloomberg expected Comcast to lose 103,000 domestic broadband subscribers in the third quarter, slightly fewer than the 104,000 lost a year earlier.

KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel expects consensus subscriber forecasts to deteriorate following the comments. He said, "We would expect CMCSA consensus net adds to move lower, where an accelerating loss trajectory could require further ARPU pressure for Subs to stabilize, a cycle we don't see ending."

Charter Communications fell 5.7% as the warning weighed on peers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 15:05

FCC Chairman Says Agency May Issue Guidance On 'Fake Polls' Ahead Of Midterms

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr said the agency may soon issue guidance to television broadcasters over what he called "fake polls," particularly if they are intended to suppress voter participation ahead of November's midterm elections.

Carr said Sunday that broadcasters face federal public-interest obligations because local television stations use FCC-licensed public airwaves, unlike cable networks and online platforms.

"There's a lot of interest right now in fake polls that are out there," Carr said. "And so the FCC may put guidance out soon to remind broadcasters about their obligations with respect to not airing fake polls, particularly if they're done to suppress people heading into the fall."

Carr's comments follow criticism from President Donald Trump over media coverage of political polling and his endorsement record in Republican primaries.

Trump recently called for the FCC to take action against NBC News' Kristen Welker after she said on a local NBC affiliate that Trump had experienced "mixed results" with candidates he endorsed in this year's primaries.

Trump disputed that characterization and said Welker should be reported to the FCC for "rebuke or punishment."

NBC News defended Welker.

Carr did not announce a formal investigation of Welker.

Instead, he said the FCC was considering several actions involving broadcasters and emphasized their obligation to operate in the public interest.

The FCC regulates local broadcast television and radio stations, but its authority over news content is limited by federal law and the First Amendment. The commission has historically said it generally will not intervene in complaints about one-sided or inaccurate news coverage because doing so could improperly substitute the government's judgment for that of broadcasters.

FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez, the commission's sole Democrat, rejected the idea that the agency can punish individual journalists over their reporting.

"As I've said many times, the FCC has no authority to punish journalists this administration doesn't like," Gomez said.

Carr has not specified what standards the FCC would use to determine whether a political poll is "fake" or what consequences broadcasters could face under any new guidance.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 14:50

Scarcity Warnings In Physical World Send Commodities To 14-Year High, Threatening Stock Rally

Readers are familiar by now with the broad-based commodity rally, with energy, agricultural products and metals moving sharply higher as former Goldman Sachs commodities head Jeff Currie warned this summer of growing scarcity in the physical economy.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has climbed to levels last seen in 2012...

... while the Quantix Commodity Index has hit a new record high.

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White is out with a new note this morning warning that the commodity rally is threatening to squeeze corporate margins and household spending, raising questions about how long stocks can withstand an inflation shock spreading well beyond oil.

White wrote:

Stocks are reacting negatively to the inflation and growth risks from commodities, which have just reached levels not seen since 2012.

Commodities are rallying, but this is no longer principally an oil story. The rally is instead broadening out. Since the beginning of August, not only are energy prices rising, such as European gas (up 34%), or gasoline (+22%), metal prices are also rising (zinc, copper), as well as precious metals (silver, platinum, gold), and softs, such as sugar, cocoa and corn.

He added:

Only a handful of the main commodities traded on futures markets (eg hogs, cattle, nickel and orange juice) are down since Aug. 1.

The energy shock affects input costs for everything from manufacturing to food production. The hobbling of refinery capacity from the Iran war has led to elevated prices for products such diesel and gasoline, inflaming transport costs.

Soft commodity prices are being further pressured by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, especially in the Black Sea region, as well as concerns about a particularly potent El Nino this year and next.

For equity bulls, White warned that soaring commodity prices raise questions about how long stocks can withstand an inflation shock broadening across the commodity complex. 

He continued on that thought:

The recent rally in raw materials has taken the Bloomberg Commodity Index to near 15-year highs. On a 10-year annualised basis, returns recently reached a level they have only once eclipsed, in 2008, since the mega-commodity rally of the 1970s.

But as we can see from the chart above, when commodity prices are high, such as in the 1970s or early 2010s, stock prices falter. Equivalently, stocks tend to enjoy their best periods when commodities are historically on the low side.

The current environment of rising stock and commodity returns looks somewhat of an anomaly. Stocks are slipping today, but if commodity prices stay bid - and there are many reasons for them to do just that - the equity market has more downside ahead. (Tatiana's point on higher energy prices boosting earnings won't translate into higher stock prices if the rest of the economy is suffering from broad-based commodity inflation.)

The Nasdaq 100's ratio to the Quantix Commodity Total Return Index has pointed to this summer's renewed commodity outperformance as traders price in scarcity. 

As we've pointed out in the metals space, copper is at an all-time high, north of $14,700, and iron ore might have found a bottom, with prices in Singapore around $100 a ton. On the critical materials side, we've outlined the continued tightening of supplies from China to the West, as seen last week in a Reuters report. We've also identified miners that are poised to break China's "quasi-monopolistic" grip on critical materials.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 14:35

3rd Burning Man Attendee Dies En Route To Hospital

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

A third person has died at this year's Burning Man Festival in the Nevada desert, according to the local sheriff's office.

Details about the death, reported on Sept. 8, were not released as festival attendees faced the usual traffic jam on their way home from the annual event in Black Rock Desert about 110 miles north of Reno.

The death occurred en route to a Reno-area hospital on Sept. 4, according to the Burning Man Project.

"We are saddened to have learned that a Burning Man participant, who experienced a serious medical emergency in Black Rock City during the early hours of Friday, Sept. 4, and immediately received on-site lifesaving measures, later passed away after being transported to Reno for medical care," a festival spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email.

The examiner overseeing the death investigation at the Washoe County Medical Examiner's Office didn't return requests for more information.

Two other festival attendees died this year at the weeklong event that started on Aug. 30.

On Sept. 3, the first man, identified later by Sheriff Jerry Allen as Sampson Tshombe, was pronounced dead by a doctor on festival grounds.

"It is with heavy hearts that The Burning Man Project confirms a Black Rock City participant in his mid-50s experienced a medical emergency, immediately received lifesaving measures, and was transported to the onsite center for emergency care where he was pronounced deceased," the organization said of Tshombe in a statement.

Two days later, the festival reported Craigh Mann, 60, was found dead by his friends at his camp at about 3 p.m.

Mann was also sent to the Washoe County Medical Examiner's office for an autopsy and toxicology screening, according to the sheriff.

Allen reported deputies had arrested 34 people for drug sales and trafficking at this year's festival as of Sept. 5.

Requests sent to the sheriff to confirm the arrest information were not returned by publication time.

An average of one death a year is reported at the annual festival that typically attracts about 70,000 people to its temporary sand metropolis.

Last year, 37-year-old Vadim Kruglov, of Russia, was found dead at the event. Sheriff's deputies, who were investigating the death as a homicide, have not yet made any arrests.

[ZH: We have one question, while we know they went out dusty, did they go out smiling?]

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 14:05

3rd Burning Man Attendee Dies En Route To Hospital

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

A third person has died at this year's Burning Man Festival in the Nevada desert, according to the local sheriff's office.

Details about the death, reported on Sept. 8, were not released as festival attendees faced the usual traffic jam on their way home from the annual event in Black Rock Desert about 110 miles north of Reno.

The death occurred en route to a Reno-area hospital on Sept. 4, according to the Burning Man Project.

"We are saddened to have learned that a Burning Man participant, who experienced a serious medical emergency in Black Rock City during the early hours of Friday, Sept. 4, and immediately received on-site lifesaving measures, later passed away after being transported to Reno for medical care," a festival spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email.

The examiner overseeing the death investigation at the Washoe County Medical Examiner's Office didn't return requests for more information.

Two other festival attendees died this year at the weeklong event that started on Aug. 30.

On Sept. 3, the first man, identified later by Sheriff Jerry Allen as Sampson Tshombe, was pronounced dead by a doctor on festival grounds.

"It is with heavy hearts that The Burning Man Project confirms a Black Rock City participant in his mid-50s experienced a medical emergency, immediately received lifesaving measures, and was transported to the onsite center for emergency care where he was pronounced deceased," the organization said of Tshombe in a statement.

Two days later, the festival reported Craigh Mann, 60, was found dead by his friends at his camp at about 3 p.m.

Mann was also sent to the Washoe County Medical Examiner's office for an autopsy and toxicology screening, according to the sheriff.

Allen reported deputies had arrested 34 people for drug sales and trafficking at this year's festival as of Sept. 5.

Requests sent to the sheriff to confirm the arrest information were not returned by publication time.

An average of one death a year is reported at the annual festival that typically attracts about 70,000 people to its temporary sand metropolis.

Last year, 37-year-old Vadim Kruglov, of Russia, was found dead at the event. Sheriff's deputies, who were investigating the death as a homicide, have not yet made any arrests.

[ZH: We have one question, while we know they went out dusty, did they go out smiling?]

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 14:05

Google To Invest $15 Billion In AI Infrastructure And Nuclear Power In Finland

By Georgia Butler of DataCenterDynamics

Google has committed to investing €13 billion ($15.13bn) in digital infrastructure in Finland across 2027 and 2028.

This will include data centers and supporting infrastructure investments in Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos, and Vaala, in the country. According to Google, this is its largest single investment in Europe to date.

Google has had a presence in Finland since it acquired a former paper mill in Hamina in 2009 and transformed it into a data center. The data center is cooled with seawater, and has been upgraded numerous times over the last 15 years. In 2022, the company purchased 50 acres of adjacent land to accommodate further expansion.

In 2024, Google acquired 1,400 hectares of land in Kajaani and Muhos from state-run forest agency Metsähallitus, but did not detail plans for the sites at the time. In February of this year, it added to its Finland land portfolio again with the acquisition of 900 hectares in Vaala for a possible data center project.

With the new investment and plans to build out in the country, Google is estimating that it will bring around 16,000 construction jobs to Finland, out of a total of 37,000 jobs generated. Once operational, the facilities will employ some 7,000 people.

"Finland is an attractive destination for investments, and attracting further investment remains a top priority. Google’s decision is a clear testament to our strengths. The value of the data economy extends far beyond direct investment into spurring innovation, research, and development. Deepening our collaboration with Google will deliver lasting benefits for both parties," said Petteri Orpo, Prime Minister of Finland.

Ruth Porat, president and chief investment officer of Alphabet and Google, added: "Google is proud to deepen our roots in Finland with the company’s largest single investment in Europe, building on more than 15 years of sustained investment in Finland. This investment underscores Google’s commitment to grow our presence responsibly, pairing the expansion of our technical infrastructure with new energy capacity, grid enhancements, and energy affordability initiatives."

Alongside the investment in data centers, Google has invested in energy initiatives in the country, including a Power Purchase Agreement with Fortum to extend the life of the Loviisa nuclear power plant, two onshore wind projects developed by Valorem and Suomen Hyötytuuli, and a 94MW battery system that will be located near Google's site in Kajaani.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:50

Google To Invest $15 Billion In AI Infrastructure And Nuclear Power In Finland

By Georgia Butler of DataCenterDynamics

Google has committed to investing €13 billion ($15.13bn) in digital infrastructure in Finland across 2027 and 2028.

This will include data centers and supporting infrastructure investments in Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos, and Vaala, in the country. According to Google, this is its largest single investment in Europe to date.

Google has had a presence in Finland since it acquired a former paper mill in Hamina in 2009 and transformed it into a data center. The data center is cooled with seawater, and has been upgraded numerous times over the last 15 years. In 2022, the company purchased 50 acres of adjacent land to accommodate further expansion.

In 2024, Google acquired 1,400 hectares of land in Kajaani and Muhos from state-run forest agency Metsähallitus, but did not detail plans for the sites at the time. In February of this year, it added to its Finland land portfolio again with the acquisition of 900 hectares in Vaala for a possible data center project.

With the new investment and plans to build out in the country, Google is estimating that it will bring around 16,000 construction jobs to Finland, out of a total of 37,000 jobs generated. Once operational, the facilities will employ some 7,000 people.

"Finland is an attractive destination for investments, and attracting further investment remains a top priority. Google’s decision is a clear testament to our strengths. The value of the data economy extends far beyond direct investment into spurring innovation, research, and development. Deepening our collaboration with Google will deliver lasting benefits for both parties," said Petteri Orpo, Prime Minister of Finland.

Ruth Porat, president and chief investment officer of Alphabet and Google, added: "Google is proud to deepen our roots in Finland with the company’s largest single investment in Europe, building on more than 15 years of sustained investment in Finland. This investment underscores Google’s commitment to grow our presence responsibly, pairing the expansion of our technical infrastructure with new energy capacity, grid enhancements, and energy affordability initiatives."

Alongside the investment in data centers, Google has invested in energy initiatives in the country, including a Power Purchase Agreement with Fortum to extend the life of the Loviisa nuclear power plant, two onshore wind projects developed by Valorem and Suomen Hyötytuuli, and a 94MW battery system that will be located near Google's site in Kajaani.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:50

Female Lindsay Clancy Jurors Have Public Meltdown Over Mistrial

It's almost shocking how prophetic the conservative online memes were when it came to the hidden deliberations inside the Lindsay Clancy jury room.  The court proceedings have sparked a political firestorm as a female led cult of supporters (mostly leftists) rallied to defend Clancy, a mother who confessed to brutally murdering her three helpless children after sending her husband out of the house on errands.   

The case has triggered a wake up call for America, with critics pointing out that the feminist movement has done far more damage to society than anyone realized.  The ideology is so malignant, it has inspired millions of women to become morally devoid monsters.  Coupled with social media addiction and false consensus bias, the Clancy trial conjured what many are calling a "mass psychosis event".   

This might be the most disturbing trend that ever hit the internet pic.twitter.com/pQryMgV9rG

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 8, 2026

Now that the case has ended in a mistrial (11 to 1) and the jurors (9 women and 3 men) have been sent home, the truth is starting to leak out. 

Three female jurors from the Lindsay Clancy trial - foreperson Roni Carlson, Paula Devlin, and Kellie Farina - gave an exclusive interview to NBC10 Boston this week. Much of their discussion focused on their frustration with the mistrial and the lone male holdout juror (the person defense attorney Kevin Reddington called a “rogue juror”).  The attitudes and conclusions of these jurors were exactly as most people predicted.    

Female jurors in the Lindsay Clancy trial FUME over the lone male holdout: “He was very arrogant. He just completely disregarded the information they gave.” pic.twitter.com/3TF0SrlG6t

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) September 8, 2026

“He admitted he had reasonable doubt and I started filling out the forms, I was so excited. There were three forms I had to fill out, and I started filling them out. I wrote my signature on each one. And then he said, ‘But I’m still not going to say that she’s not guilty by reason of insanity.’”

“He had the hardest time getting off the fact that Lindsay viciously killed her children.” 

I am the holdout pic.twitter.com/sLMJ3buLfk

— Dr. Clown, PhD (@DrClownPhD) September 3, 2026

The circumstances surrounding the murders suggest that Clancy was fully aware of what she was doing, including the fact that her supposed "psychotic episode" in which she "heard a voice" telling her to kill her children had never happened before or since.  The episode also just happened to take place right after she sent her then husband Patrick Clancy on multiple errands which kept him away from the house. 

She even took a phone call from Patrick while she was in the midst of committing the murders and acted as if everything was fine.

Clancy was in treatment only a couple weeks before the event, but checked herself out.  She was diagnosed with a depressive disorder (not a psychosis) and she denied having any homicidal or suicidal thoughts.  Some of the drugs in her system (which the defense claimed were the cause of her "episode") were taken by Clancy in an attempt to overdose after the children were dead.  All of this information and more was ignored by 11 jurors for the sake of a convenient insanity plea. 

But the realities in the deliberations room get even more disturbing.  One female juror has come forward asserting that many of the jurors had taken Clancy's side early in the case and pressure to let her off with an insanity plea was applied.  This juror denounced the conspiracy claims on social media that the husband was the "real killer" and admits that Lindsay did indeed commit the act.  However, she also hints that despite her own misgivings, she had to side with the other "big personalities in the room". 

The rest of the jurors interviewed highlight the "vibes" of the defense attorney, noting that Kevin Reddington was fun, likable and empathetic to Lindsay (facts, apparently, took a backseat).  It should be noted that the jurors were not sequestered in this case, which means they went home each night and had free and unmonitored access to the internet and all the ridiculous theories available.  

In Massachusetts, the rules surrounding an insanity plea are reversed.  Usually, it is up to the defense to prove that the suspect was suffering from a mental breakdown.  But in MA, it is up to the prosecution to prove the suspect was not insane at the time of the crime.  How does one prove beyond a reasonable doubt that someone was not crazy when the crime alone requires an inherent level of insanity?  It's impossible. 

This is why around half of all women who use postpartum psychosis as a murder defense escape real punishment for their crimes.  The case centers on the criminal as if that person is a victim, too.     

In MA if Clancy is found not guilty by reason of insanity she is remanded to a mental health facility, but she has the chance to be released as early as six months into her incarceration.  Keep in mind, her defense was that her psychosis was temporary; it had never happened before or since the murders.  In other words, she would automatically be considered "cured" by the standards of the facilities in MA - How would they be able to prove otherwise?   

Thankfully, at least one juror had the courage to stop this from happening.  The case has started a national conversation about the exploitation of "women's health" issues as a shield to protect female criminals from prosecution.  The threat being that America has been conned into accepting a two tier justice system in favor of violent women willing to play crazy.  The hormone defense would never work for a man who killed his three children; why should it work for Lindsay Clancy?   

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:35

Female Lindsay Clancy Jurors Have Public Meltdown Over Mistrial

It's almost shocking how prophetic the conservative online memes were when it came to the hidden deliberations inside the Lindsay Clancy jury room.  The court proceedings have sparked a political firestorm as a female led cult of supporters (mostly leftists) rallied to defend Clancy, a mother who confessed to brutally murdering her three helpless children after sending her husband out of the house on errands.   

The case has triggered a wake up call for America, with critics pointing out that the feminist movement has done far more damage to society than anyone realized.  The ideology is so malignant, it has inspired millions of women to become morally devoid monsters.  Coupled with social media addiction and false consensus bias, the Clancy trial conjured what many are calling a "mass psychosis event".   

This might be the most disturbing trend that ever hit the internet pic.twitter.com/pQryMgV9rG

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 8, 2026

Now that the case has ended in a mistrial (11 to 1) and the jurors (9 women and 3 men) have been sent home, the truth is starting to leak out. 

Three female jurors from the Lindsay Clancy trial - foreperson Roni Carlson, Paula Devlin, and Kellie Farina - gave an exclusive interview to NBC10 Boston this week. Much of their discussion focused on their frustration with the mistrial and the lone male holdout juror (the person defense attorney Kevin Reddington called a “rogue juror”).  The attitudes and conclusions of these jurors were exactly as most people predicted.    

Female jurors in the Lindsay Clancy trial FUME over the lone male holdout: “He was very arrogant. He just completely disregarded the information they gave.” pic.twitter.com/3TF0SrlG6t

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) September 8, 2026

“He admitted he had reasonable doubt and I started filling out the forms, I was so excited. There were three forms I had to fill out, and I started filling them out. I wrote my signature on each one. And then he said, ‘But I’m still not going to say that she’s not guilty by reason of insanity.’”

“He had the hardest time getting off the fact that Lindsay viciously killed her children.” 

I am the holdout pic.twitter.com/sLMJ3buLfk

— Dr. Clown, PhD (@DrClownPhD) September 3, 2026

The circumstances surrounding the murders suggest that Clancy was fully aware of what she was doing, including the fact that her supposed "psychotic episode" in which she "heard a voice" telling her to kill her children had never happened before or since.  The episode also just happened to take place right after she sent her then husband Patrick Clancy on multiple errands which kept him away from the house. 

She even took a phone call from Patrick while she was in the midst of committing the murders and acted as if everything was fine.

Clancy was in treatment only a couple weeks before the event, but checked herself out.  She was diagnosed with a depressive disorder (not a psychosis) and she denied having any homicidal or suicidal thoughts.  Some of the drugs in her system (which the defense claimed were the cause of her "episode") were taken by Clancy in an attempt to overdose after the children were dead.  All of this information and more was ignored by 11 jurors for the sake of a convenient insanity plea. 

But the realities in the deliberations room get even more disturbing.  One female juror has come forward asserting that many of the jurors had taken Clancy's side early in the case and pressure to let her off with an insanity plea was applied.  This juror denounced the conspiracy claims on social media that the husband was the "real killer" and admits that Lindsay did indeed commit the act.  However, she also hints that despite her own misgivings, she had to side with the other "big personalities in the room". 

The rest of the jurors interviewed highlight the "vibes" of the defense attorney, noting that Kevin Reddington was fun, likable and empathetic to Lindsay (facts, apparently, took a backseat).  It should be noted that the jurors were not sequestered in this case, which means they went home each night and had free and unmonitored access to the internet and all the ridiculous theories available.  

In Massachusetts, the rules surrounding an insanity plea are reversed.  Usually, it is up to the defense to prove that the suspect was suffering from a mental breakdown.  But in MA, it is up to the prosecution to prove the suspect was not insane at the time of the crime.  How does one prove beyond a reasonable doubt that someone was not crazy when the crime alone requires an inherent level of insanity?  It's impossible. 

This is why around half of all women who use postpartum psychosis as a murder defense escape real punishment for their crimes.  The case centers on the criminal as if that person is a victim, too.     

In MA if Clancy is found not guilty by reason of insanity she is remanded to a mental health facility, but she has the chance to be released as early as six months into her incarceration.  Keep in mind, her defense was that her psychosis was temporary; it had never happened before or since the murders.  In other words, she would automatically be considered "cured" by the standards of the facilities in MA - How would they be able to prove otherwise?   

Thankfully, at least one juror had the courage to stop this from happening.  The case has started a national conversation about the exploitation of "women's health" issues as a shield to protect female criminals from prosecution.  The threat being that America has been conned into accepting a two tier justice system in favor of violent women willing to play crazy.  The hormone defense would never work for a man who killed his three children; why should it work for Lindsay Clancy?   

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:35

Stellar 10Y Auction Stops Through, With Highest Bid To Cover In A Decade On BIggest Yield Since 2007

After today's very disappointing buyback announcement, which at $6BN came in far below whisper expectations of $10BN, and which sent yields surging to 4.85%, many were on edge ahead of today's $39 billion sale of 10Y paper. In the end, it priced far stronger than expected, with today's selloff providing a sufficient concession to stir up enough demand to avoid a fullblown bond market panic. 

The 9 Year/11 month reopening of cusip ER0 stopped at a high yield of 4.834%, up from 4.680% in August, and the highest since August 2007!

Just as importantly, the auction stopped through the When Issued 4.384% by 1.5bps, the biggest stop through since April 2025, which was some much needed good news in a day when yields soared briefly above 4.85% on their path to the inevitable date with 5.00%

The bid to cover was stellar at 2.713, it jumped from 2.532 in August and was the highest since April 2016.

The internals were even stronger, with indirect bidders taking 79.18% of the issue, one of the highest on record, while primary dealers were left with just 4.31%, the lowest participation since late Sept 2025. Direct took down 16.51%, right in line with the recent average of 16.42%.

In short, this was a stellar auction, which helped pare some of the earlier blowout in yields following today's buyback announcement, with the 10-year note last yielding 4.837%, up 3.26bp on the session but off its pre-auction highs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:25

Stellar 10Y Auction Stops Through, With Highest Bid To Cover In A Decade On BIggest Yield Since 2007

After today's very disappointing buyback announcement, which at $6BN came in far below whisper expectations of $10BN, and which sent yields surging to 4.85%, many were on edge ahead of today's $39 billion sale of 10Y paper. In the end, it priced far stronger than expected, with today's selloff providing a sufficient concession to stir up enough demand to avoid a fullblown bond market panic. 

The 9 Year/11 month reopening of cusip ER0 stopped at a high yield of 4.834%, up from 4.680% in August, and the highest since August 2007!

Just as importantly, the auction stopped through the When Issued 4.384% by 1.5bps, the biggest stop through since April 2025, which was some much needed good news in a day when yields soared briefly above 4.85% on their path to the inevitable date with 5.00%

The bid to cover was stellar at 2.713, it jumped from 2.532 in August and was the highest since April 2016.

The internals were even stronger, with indirect bidders taking 79.18% of the issue, one of the highest on record, while primary dealers were left with just 4.31%, the lowest participation since late Sept 2025. Direct took down 16.51%, right in line with the recent average of 16.42%.

In short, this was a stellar auction, which helped pare some of the earlier blowout in yields following today's buyback announcement, with the 10-year note last yielding 4.837%, up 3.26bp on the session but off its pre-auction highs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:25

If You're Still Talking About Central Bank Independence, You Are Behind The Curve

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The US just hit five more Iranian oil tankers, citing attempted strikes on one of its warships, and warned more will be sunk if Iran tries it again. It also imposed more economic war via aviation sanctions. The Saudis and Houthis are on the brink of new war after a series of strikes at Saudi cities, followed by Riyadh’s reprisals and the threat of “consequences [the Houthis] cannot handle.” Qatar and the UAE both said the Gulf cannot rely on US alone for the region's security: but Russia can’t extend power there now; China can’t or doesn’t want to; Europe can’t and won’t – so that leaves Turkey and Israel, both eyeing the other suspiciously; and as France and Canada joined the UK in issuing trade sanctions on Israeli settlements, the EU reportedly wants to pursue closer Israel ties on air defence and space.

Oil trades above $100, and notably Shanghai oil is now trading higher than Brent having been vastly lower in the early stages of the Iran War. Crack spreads remain worryingly high all over. Refined product stocks remain worryingly low.

Shanghai crude $110: contract record high pic.twitter.com/gWCza5BD2M

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2026

Trump spoke to Putin as Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats to Moscow’s threats of a harsh response. Iceland summoned the US ambassador over Trump’s Stars and Stripes map Truth post showing the US flag covering Canada, Mexico, Greenland, and Iceland. Israel shut down the UK consulate in Jerusalem. The British Army has reportedly been ordered to save money by using reservists less, and flights were grounded across the UK due to a tech issue – showing the impact ‘grey zone’ attacks can have. The Hong Kong press notes China is boosting Pakistani drone defences ‘as India tensions simmer’, and ‘How Japan is digging in to deter –and withstand– a conflict over Taiwan.’ All the kind of things to rattle the long end of government bond yield curves.

Maritime nations are warning that global shipping rules are collapsing, which could take much global trade with it as some worry if there is enough bunker fuel for the ships to use. While the Suez Canal is seeing more passages as tankers try to avoid Hormuz, the Panama Canal is warning of deeper transit cuts as the El Nino drought threat intensifies. Further north, and next to Europe, Russia is betting on a $400bn Arctic Transport Corridor but can’t fund it without China.

Brussels warned China it ‘must buy more’ from the EU to avoid a trade war: but what exactly? The old joke vs. the US was ‘Will you sell us aircraft carriers?’ China now builds its own faster. Europe has few resources China needs or goods it doesn’t make itself. Even EU luxury brands are less popular as Beijing prioritises domestic brands. Perhaps the EU could sell China more tech from ASML, to a new trans-Atlantic storm? Meanwhile, EU industry claims it faces 300,000 job cuts as China “colonises” its supply chains, and European “wealth” is threatened by the decline of its carmakers, with a deleterious effect on the steel, aluminium, glass, and chemical sectors needed for rearmament. Again, not much fun for the long end of bond markets if they think about it.

Canadian counter tariffs on the US went into effect; the US is to ban Canadian dairy and some alcohol and motor vehicles from September 29, as well as Canadian firms from government contracts in response. The Globe and Mail opines, ‘With this trade war, Canada faces its Singapore moment’. The National Post says, ‘Canadians support hard line against US, but don't want to pay for it’, as “When asked if they would pay an extra C$500 per year to hold the line in the current trade war, 56% called this ‘unacceptable’.” Becoming Singapore implies paying vastly more than C$500 per year.

US Secretary of State Rubio is seeking more economic and security ties in Latin America, which has an FTA with the EU, which doesn’t offer the same security ties. He’s in Colombia to ‘clarify’ its China links and to sign a minerals deal, as Nicaragua hands a gold concession to a sister firm of US-sanctioned Chinese miner.

In AI, there are more reports about experts fearing the technology is out of control, as markets worry about the same issue from a different standpoint. The US also accused Chinese AI firms of “malicious” copying of AI technology – which can be resisted how if so, a digital Iron Curtain? Despite fears of US-South Korean tensions, as opposed to alignment on rapprochement with North Korea, KHNP and the US Westinghouse are to align the two nations nuclear supply chains for eight new US reactors. That is a small step in the right direction regarding AI power demands.

In politics, anti-AfD protests swept parts of Germany as the establishment fears that Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania may fall to the populists on 20 September. That’s as Politico says, ‘Merz has no good answers as the far right targets his downfall.’ Nothing for the bond market to worry about there, right?

In markets, there is some speculation the BOJ might even think about a 50bps hike. If so, it would be the first such move since 1989, when it was still in a bubble. Appropriately, given the current geopolitical backdrop, it was also before the3 first Cold War had fully ended and was a time when the US used national security arguments vs. its allies to achieve the likes of the Plaza Accord.

Indeed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese Yen, I have a pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policy makers are going to do. And you can bet against me if you want.” I repeat, if you are still talking about the independence of central banks, you are behind the curve; the world is now about the functional independence of countries within which central banks sit. Of course, as JPY rallies and shorter-dated JGB yields rise, the issue becomes when we might see Japanese holdings abroad repatriated, pushing FX down and yields higher in other markets. That might take some more economic statecraft, not “because markets”, from Bessent to handle.

The RBA just saw Hauser give a hawkish speech, which has markets thinking of hikes this month and in November. Fortunately, that’s very much what the US Treasury would like to see – plus a lot more action on non-housing parts of the economy.

ECB President Lagarde, who’s talked independently about economic statecraft yet done nothing, is to release her memoir in January. That’s odd given she will still be in office so can’t tell us anything interesting enough to justify reading it. Unless she has moved on to pontificate at Davos, as whispered. That would allow Macron to choose the replacement ECB representative before the French presidential election where the nationalist Le Pen is seen as favourite, a clear ‘rules’-based ringfencing of a ‘rules-based’ institution against at least one populist appointment. Yet when you see where the political winds are blowing, such action may not prove quite as reassuring for markets as the ‘sensible centrist’ optimists would try to sell it.

On the other hand, China's tobacco monopoly played a key role in shoring up state-owned banks, which just raised $54bn in capital even as GDP is sluggish. Where there’s smoking, there’s fire, but is the new capital for bad loans, a bad sign for global growth, or new “not because markets” lending, a bad sign for global inflation? Today’s Chinese CPI data were in line at just 0.8% y-o-y headline, up from 0.5%, and slightly above expectations at 1.0% y-o-y core, while PPI was 3.8% y-o-y vs. 3.6% consensus and up from 3.5%. Let’s see how all of them trend with Shanghai oil over $100.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:20

If You're Still Talking About Central Bank Independence, You Are Behind The Curve

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The US just hit five more Iranian oil tankers, citing attempted strikes on one of its warships, and warned more will be sunk if Iran tries it again. It also imposed more economic war via aviation sanctions. The Saudis and Houthis are on the brink of new war after a series of strikes at Saudi cities, followed by Riyadh’s reprisals and the threat of “consequences [the Houthis] cannot handle.” Qatar and the UAE both said the Gulf cannot rely on US alone for the region's security: but Russia can’t extend power there now; China can’t or doesn’t want to; Europe can’t and won’t – so that leaves Turkey and Israel, both eyeing the other suspiciously; and as France and Canada joined the UK in issuing trade sanctions on Israeli settlements, the EU reportedly wants to pursue closer Israel ties on air defence and space.

Oil trades above $100, and notably Shanghai oil is now trading higher than Brent having been vastly lower in the early stages of the Iran War. Crack spreads remain worryingly high all over. Refined product stocks remain worryingly low.

Shanghai crude $110: contract record high pic.twitter.com/gWCza5BD2M

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2026

Trump spoke to Putin as Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats to Moscow’s threats of a harsh response. Iceland summoned the US ambassador over Trump’s Stars and Stripes map Truth post showing the US flag covering Canada, Mexico, Greenland, and Iceland. Israel shut down the UK consulate in Jerusalem. The British Army has reportedly been ordered to save money by using reservists less, and flights were grounded across the UK due to a tech issue – showing the impact ‘grey zone’ attacks can have. The Hong Kong press notes China is boosting Pakistani drone defences ‘as India tensions simmer’, and ‘How Japan is digging in to deter –and withstand– a conflict over Taiwan.’ All the kind of things to rattle the long end of government bond yield curves.

Maritime nations are warning that global shipping rules are collapsing, which could take much global trade with it as some worry if there is enough bunker fuel for the ships to use. While the Suez Canal is seeing more passages as tankers try to avoid Hormuz, the Panama Canal is warning of deeper transit cuts as the El Nino drought threat intensifies. Further north, and next to Europe, Russia is betting on a $400bn Arctic Transport Corridor but can’t fund it without China.

Brussels warned China it ‘must buy more’ from the EU to avoid a trade war: but what exactly? The old joke vs. the US was ‘Will you sell us aircraft carriers?’ China now builds its own faster. Europe has few resources China needs or goods it doesn’t make itself. Even EU luxury brands are less popular as Beijing prioritises domestic brands. Perhaps the EU could sell China more tech from ASML, to a new trans-Atlantic storm? Meanwhile, EU industry claims it faces 300,000 job cuts as China “colonises” its supply chains, and European “wealth” is threatened by the decline of its carmakers, with a deleterious effect on the steel, aluminium, glass, and chemical sectors needed for rearmament. Again, not much fun for the long end of bond markets if they think about it.

Canadian counter tariffs on the US went into effect; the US is to ban Canadian dairy and some alcohol and motor vehicles from September 29, as well as Canadian firms from government contracts in response. The Globe and Mail opines, ‘With this trade war, Canada faces its Singapore moment’. The National Post says, ‘Canadians support hard line against US, but don't want to pay for it’, as “When asked if they would pay an extra C$500 per year to hold the line in the current trade war, 56% called this ‘unacceptable’.” Becoming Singapore implies paying vastly more than C$500 per year.

US Secretary of State Rubio is seeking more economic and security ties in Latin America, which has an FTA with the EU, which doesn’t offer the same security ties. He’s in Colombia to ‘clarify’ its China links and to sign a minerals deal, as Nicaragua hands a gold concession to a sister firm of US-sanctioned Chinese miner.

In AI, there are more reports about experts fearing the technology is out of control, as markets worry about the same issue from a different standpoint. The US also accused Chinese AI firms of “malicious” copying of AI technology – which can be resisted how if so, a digital Iron Curtain? Despite fears of US-South Korean tensions, as opposed to alignment on rapprochement with North Korea, KHNP and the US Westinghouse are to align the two nations nuclear supply chains for eight new US reactors. That is a small step in the right direction regarding AI power demands.

In politics, anti-AfD protests swept parts of Germany as the establishment fears that Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania may fall to the populists on 20 September. That’s as Politico says, ‘Merz has no good answers as the far right targets his downfall.’ Nothing for the bond market to worry about there, right?

In markets, there is some speculation the BOJ might even think about a 50bps hike. If so, it would be the first such move since 1989, when it was still in a bubble. Appropriately, given the current geopolitical backdrop, it was also before the3 first Cold War had fully ended and was a time when the US used national security arguments vs. its allies to achieve the likes of the Plaza Accord.

Indeed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese Yen, I have a pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policy makers are going to do. And you can bet against me if you want.” I repeat, if you are still talking about the independence of central banks, you are behind the curve; the world is now about the functional independence of countries within which central banks sit. Of course, as JPY rallies and shorter-dated JGB yields rise, the issue becomes when we might see Japanese holdings abroad repatriated, pushing FX down and yields higher in other markets. That might take some more economic statecraft, not “because markets”, from Bessent to handle.

The RBA just saw Hauser give a hawkish speech, which has markets thinking of hikes this month and in November. Fortunately, that’s very much what the US Treasury would like to see – plus a lot more action on non-housing parts of the economy.

ECB President Lagarde, who’s talked independently about economic statecraft yet done nothing, is to release her memoir in January. That’s odd given she will still be in office so can’t tell us anything interesting enough to justify reading it. Unless she has moved on to pontificate at Davos, as whispered. That would allow Macron to choose the replacement ECB representative before the French presidential election where the nationalist Le Pen is seen as favourite, a clear ‘rules’-based ringfencing of a ‘rules-based’ institution against at least one populist appointment. Yet when you see where the political winds are blowing, such action may not prove quite as reassuring for markets as the ‘sensible centrist’ optimists would try to sell it.

On the other hand, China's tobacco monopoly played a key role in shoring up state-owned banks, which just raised $54bn in capital even as GDP is sluggish. Where there’s smoking, there’s fire, but is the new capital for bad loans, a bad sign for global growth, or new “not because markets” lending, a bad sign for global inflation? Today’s Chinese CPI data were in line at just 0.8% y-o-y headline, up from 0.5%, and slightly above expectations at 1.0% y-o-y core, while PPI was 3.8% y-o-y vs. 3.6% consensus and up from 3.5%. Let’s see how all of them trend with Shanghai oil over $100.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:20

Treasury Yields Surge After Bessent Disappoints Market With Small Buyback Size

Ahead of today's highly anticipated Treasury buyback announcement - which put a number to the shocking Aug 19 news from the Treasury that the maximum size of $2 billion per longer-dated buyback operation would be "at least $4 billion" - we warned that no matter what was unveiled at 11am ET, the market would be disappointed...

Bessent will reveal the expanded Treasury buyback size at 11am ET. It will disappoint.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2026

... for the simple reason that when it comes to $2+ trillion in gross issuance every year and hundreds of billions in annual duration (DV01) supply, $4 billion - or even $10 billion as some expected - would be a drop in the bucket as this chart from Goldman shows (where if you use a microscope, you can even see the size of the TSY buyback in context).

So at precisely 11am, the Treasury did release the long-awaited number.... and it was a huge disappointment.

The treasury announced that going forward, the maximum par amount of 20-30 Year TSYs to be repurchased would be $6 billion... which while more than the $4 billion guaranteed minimum per the original press release, was less than the $10 billion whisper. 

Source: Treasury

Many dealers had ramped up their predictions for Thursday’s buyback operation after Bessent publicly touted the potential for purchases of over $4 billion; many expected $6 billion, a few even said that a number north of $10 billion isn't out of the question. The Treasury chief on Tuesday reiterated that while he cannot alter the “equilibrium” price of Treasuries, his objective was to slow moves down and prevent any damaging narrative taking hold in the world’s biggest bond market

BNP Paribas head of US rates strategy, Guneet Dhingra, said before the announcement it would take a maximum size of $7 billion to surprise the market, with anything less triggering selling pressure. He was right: the $6 billion number proved to be a dud as confirmed by the bond market reaction which has sent 10Y yields spiking 4 bps higher on the disappointing news, rising as high as 4.85%. 

How successful the enlarged program will prove remains to be seen. Yields dropped after the initial announcement of the plan last month, but retraced the move. Benchmark 10-year yields last week hit their highest since 2023.

Markets in August, when 30-year yields hit their highest since 2007, were driven by concerns “the US is not going to be able to pay its debt. It was absurd, but it just became kind of the dominant narrative,” Bessent claimed in a Texas event. He has separately characterized buybacks as aimed at boosting liquidity. They will enable banks and other institutions to offload harder-to-trade securities so that they can then boost their participation in auctions of new debt, he said last week.

“Scott has absolutely adopted a very activist model as Treasury secretary,” Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, said before Wednesday’s announcement. “He’s tactically very skilled in terms of when and how to surprise and move markets and has had some near-term success.”

Guha, who previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said “the challenge is always whether the impact of these kind of interventions can be sustained without bigger changes in fundamentals.”

Of course, since the buyback size is a "maximum", that means the Treasury will not necessarily purchase that amount of securities. However, when it comes to buybacks targeting longer-dated nominal debt, the department does tend to buy the full size, having only twice not done so in the 52 such operations since the program was reintroduced in 2024.

Bessent’s expansion of the long-dated buybacks program last month took investors by surprise because it was announced outside the Treasury’s quarterly announcement schedule. That’s fanned talk of a new, more activist style of US debt management, in contrast to the department’s long-held mantra of being “regular and predictable.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 12:55

Treasury Yields Surge After Bessent Disappoints Market With Small Buyback Size

Ahead of today's highly anticipated Treasury buyback announcement - which put a number to the shocking Aug 19 news from the Treasury that the maximum size of $2 billion per longer-dated buyback operation would be "at least $4 billion" - we warned that no matter what was unveiled at 11am ET, the market would be disappointed...

Bessent will reveal the expanded Treasury buyback size at 11am ET. It will disappoint.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2026

... for the simple reason that when it comes to $2+ trillion in gross issuance every year and hundreds of billions in annual duration (DV01) supply, $4 billion - or even $10 billion as some expected - would be a drop in the bucket as this chart from Goldman shows (where if you use a microscope, you can even see the size of the TSY buyback in context).

So at precisely 11am, the Treasury did release the long-awaited number.... and it was a huge disappointment.

The treasury announced that going forward, the maximum par amount of 20-30 Year TSYs to be repurchased would be $6 billion... which while more than the $4 billion guaranteed minimum per the original press release, was less than the $10 billion whisper. 

Source: Treasury

Many dealers had ramped up their predictions for Thursday’s buyback operation after Bessent publicly touted the potential for purchases of over $4 billion; many expected $6 billion, a few even said that a number north of $10 billion isn't out of the question. The Treasury chief on Tuesday reiterated that while he cannot alter the “equilibrium” price of Treasuries, his objective was to slow moves down and prevent any damaging narrative taking hold in the world’s biggest bond market

BNP Paribas head of US rates strategy, Guneet Dhingra, said before the announcement it would take a maximum size of $7 billion to surprise the market, with anything less triggering selling pressure. He was right: the $6 billion number proved to be a dud as confirmed by the bond market reaction which has sent 10Y yields spiking 4 bps higher on the disappointing news, rising as high as 4.85%. 

How successful the enlarged program will prove remains to be seen. Yields dropped after the initial announcement of the plan last month, but retraced the move. Benchmark 10-year yields last week hit their highest since 2023.

Markets in August, when 30-year yields hit their highest since 2007, were driven by concerns “the US is not going to be able to pay its debt. It was absurd, but it just became kind of the dominant narrative,” Bessent claimed in a Texas event. He has separately characterized buybacks as aimed at boosting liquidity. They will enable banks and other institutions to offload harder-to-trade securities so that they can then boost their participation in auctions of new debt, he said last week.

“Scott has absolutely adopted a very activist model as Treasury secretary,” Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, said before Wednesday’s announcement. “He’s tactically very skilled in terms of when and how to surprise and move markets and has had some near-term success.”

Guha, who previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said “the challenge is always whether the impact of these kind of interventions can be sustained without bigger changes in fundamentals.”

Of course, since the buyback size is a "maximum", that means the Treasury will not necessarily purchase that amount of securities. However, when it comes to buybacks targeting longer-dated nominal debt, the department does tend to buy the full size, having only twice not done so in the 52 such operations since the program was reintroduced in 2024.

Bessent’s expansion of the long-dated buybacks program last month took investors by surprise because it was announced outside the Treasury’s quarterly announcement schedule. That’s fanned talk of a new, more activist style of US debt management, in contrast to the department’s long-held mantra of being “regular and predictable.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 12:55

Trump Admin Asks Supreme Court To Allow Voter Citizenship Verification

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department on Sept. 8 requested that the Supreme Court let the government verify the citizenship of voters using a federal immigration database.

A federal judge earlier in the year ruled that the Trump administration was violating privacy laws by using the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system to verify the citizenship of people on state voter rolls.

An appeals court upheld the ruling on Sept. 4 in a split decision, with the majority concluding that using the database would illegally disclose personal data such as Social Security numbers.

"The district court has issued an indefensible order that threatens the integrity of upcoming elections by vacating the federal government's authority to internally use Social Security data when fulfilling its duty to respond to requests by states to verify the citizenship of individuals for voting and other purposes," Department of Justice lawyers wrote in the new filing to the nation's top court.

They said the order exceeds the jurisdiction of the court, because the organizations that brought the lawsuit do not have standing, or are not affected by the order in a way that allows them to legally challenge it.

"The court's order also fails on the merits, as the policy is consistent with all applicable federal statutes," the filing states.

"The order will irreparably harm the federal government, the States, and the public by depriving the government of an effective tool to verify the eligibility of registered voters and benefits applicants under various state and federal programs."

The groups that brought the litigation, including the League of Women Voters, have not yet responded to the filing.

The litigation was brought after the government enabled bulk queries to SAVE, complying with an order from a different judge that came in a case brought by states that struggled to verify the citizenship of registered voters.

Although a majority of a U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit panel on Sept. 4 ruled in favor of the groups, Judge Gregory Katsas dissented. He said that he would have stayed the order blocking the government from using SAVE, pending the outcome of the appeal.

The government's modified system does not appear to violate the federal law that prohibits disclosure of Social Security numbers and "related records," according to the judge. He said that the disclosures would only be made to the Department of Homeland Security, which would then convey information about a person's immigration status or citizenship to state agencies.

"In sum, SAVE responses are not 'related records' because they simply repeat identifying information provided by the SAVE user, in the course of conveying any additional, unprotected information about the identified individual's citizenship status," Katsas wrote.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 12:40

Trump Admin Asks Supreme Court To Allow Voter Citizenship Verification

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department on Sept. 8 requested that the Supreme Court let the government verify the citizenship of voters using a federal immigration database.

A federal judge earlier in the year ruled that the Trump administration was violating privacy laws by using the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system to verify the citizenship of people on state voter rolls.

An appeals court upheld the ruling on Sept. 4 in a split decision, with the majority concluding that using the database would illegally disclose personal data such as Social Security numbers.

"The district court has issued an indefensible order that threatens the integrity of upcoming elections by vacating the federal government's authority to internally use Social Security data when fulfilling its duty to respond to requests by states to verify the citizenship of individuals for voting and other purposes," Department of Justice lawyers wrote in the new filing to the nation's top court.

They said the order exceeds the jurisdiction of the court, because the organizations that brought the lawsuit do not have standing, or are not affected by the order in a way that allows them to legally challenge it.

"The court's order also fails on the merits, as the policy is consistent with all applicable federal statutes," the filing states.

"The order will irreparably harm the federal government, the States, and the public by depriving the government of an effective tool to verify the eligibility of registered voters and benefits applicants under various state and federal programs."

The groups that brought the litigation, including the League of Women Voters, have not yet responded to the filing.

The litigation was brought after the government enabled bulk queries to SAVE, complying with an order from a different judge that came in a case brought by states that struggled to verify the citizenship of registered voters.

Although a majority of a U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit panel on Sept. 4 ruled in favor of the groups, Judge Gregory Katsas dissented. He said that he would have stayed the order blocking the government from using SAVE, pending the outcome of the appeal.

The government's modified system does not appear to violate the federal law that prohibits disclosure of Social Security numbers and "related records," according to the judge. He said that the disclosures would only be made to the Department of Homeland Security, which would then convey information about a person's immigration status or citizenship to state agencies.

"In sum, SAVE responses are not 'related records' because they simply repeat identifying information provided by the SAVE user, in the course of conveying any additional, unprotected information about the identified individual's citizenship status," Katsas wrote.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 12:40

Hunter Biden's LAPTOP Memecoin Crashes 99% In First Hour After Launch...

Hunter Biden’s LAPTOP memecoin fell 99% in its first hour of trading on Wednesday, as the son of former US President Joe Biden officially entered the market for politically themed cryptocurrencies.

The token, which we previewed here, issued on Ethereum layer-2 network Base, traded below $2.00, after opening at $199.50, according to CoinGecko data.

It recorded more than $3 million in trading volume.

Source: CoinGecko

“The symbol they used to try to end me is now a symbol of resilience, redemption and recovery,” Biden said in an X post on Wednesday, responding to public backlash.

Biden also said he understood the cynicism around memecoins, called President Donald Trump’s token a “grift” and warned buyers not to expect him or anyone else to make LAPTOP more valuable.

The memecoin is promoted as an attempt to reclaim the “laptop narrative,” which centers on a MacBook that Biden reportedly left at a Delaware repair shop in 2019.

The New York Post published emails and other files purported to have come from the device before the 2020 presidential election. Trump allies used the material against Hunter Biden and his father, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden.

On Monday, Biden teased LAPTOP on X with a post showing the token’s ticker, accompanied by a montage of media coverage of the laptop.

As CoinTelegraph reports, the announcement drew criticism from the likes of digital investigator Stephen Findeisen, known as Coffeezilla, who called LAPTOP a “shitcoin” and urged his followers not to buy it.

X account “scupytrooples” told Biden there was “still time to walk this back.”

Base founder Jesse Pollak said in an X post that the project had contacted his team, but Base made a “conscious decision” not to help with the token’s design or promotion.

Biden did not respond to Cointelegraph’s query before publication. 

The project’s disclosures say LAPTOP has no utility, lock founder tokens for six months and reserve 2% for wallets that lost money on TRUMP.

LAPTOP disclosures set 2% of token supply for TRUMP token losers

Biden’s earlier criticism of the Trump family’s crypto ventures also gave traders a ready-made hypocrisy argument. 

In an Aug. 21 post, Biden accused World Liberty Financial of using political influence, centralized controls and leverage to benefit its founders, while saying the crypto industry deserved better. 

He has now launched a memecoin built around his own political identity, with founders allocated a chunk of the supply.

The project’s disclosures describe LAPTOP as a digital collectible with no utility, ownership rights, voting rights, yield or profit-sharing rights. The token has a fixed supply of 1 billion, with 350 million tokens circulating at launch.

Founders, including Biden, are allocated 300 million tokens, or 30% of the supply. Those tokens are locked for six months and then vested monthly over the following 24 months. Another 30% is tied to political, cultural and crypto predictions, with tokens burned when specified outcomes occur and released to charity if they do not.

The disclosures also outline airdrop figures, with the initial round representing 10% of the total supply. Of those, 2% is reserved for wallets that lost money on TRUMP and 8% for eligible subscribers to Biden’s “Where’s Hunter” Substack newsletter.

A separate 10% future airdrop is to be distributed at the foundation’s discretion. That means 20% is allocated to airdrops overall, while the specific TRUMP-loss allocation is capped at 2%.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 12:20

'It Could Kill Us All By 2030': AI Researcher Resigns, Warns "Do Not Underestimate The Power Of This Tech"

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

An artificial intelligence (AI) researcher on Sept. 8 said he had resigned and warned people about the technology's dangers.

Jacob Coxon, who has worked in recent years doing research at the firms OpenAI and Anthropic, said in a series of posts on X that neither company is acting responsibly as they move toward what he described as superintelligent AI that is capable of self-improvement.

"Do not underestimate the power of this technology. These will soon be superhuman systems that can hack anything, revolutionize any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources. We have all witnessed the progress in each of these domains, and progress is not slowing," Coxon said.

"The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger."

Coxon said a common response to such warnings is, if company leaders believe in the dangers, why are they still building the superintelligent AI? He said that at OpenAI, many there "have not deeply internalized the civilizational stakes." At Anthropic, according to Coxon, "the stakes are well-understood, but they are locked in a race to get there first - they believe no one else will act responsibly, so they must do it themselves, despite the risk."

OpenAI and Anthropic did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Coxon's warning came after OpenAI acknowledged several incidents that involved AI going beyond restrictions imposed by programmers, including remaining isolated from other agents, during attacks on Hugging Face and other websites.

Some lawmakers have taken notice. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) announced recently that they plan on introducing legislation that would ban AI superintelligence and pause development of advanced AI until federal regulators establish safety rules.

Jakub Pachocki, OpenAI's chief scientist, said in a blog post on Sept. 6 that in 2023, he was worried about seeing in his lifetime AI that is smarter than himself and wondering about how to alert people.

"Three years later, reasoning language models are a rapidly growing part of the economy and starting to push the boundaries of science. They are able to operate computers and graphical interfaces, collaborate with people and each other, and carry out research projects. They are also transforming the landscape of computer security, and in that present clear new dangers," Pachocki wrote.

He called for "extreme caution" but said that multiple factors support continuing AI development, including creating systems that can defend against the dangers posed by other AI.

Anthropic executives have issued similar warnings. Over the summer, company leaders called for a global pause in AI development because, they said, models would soon be able to independently improve themselves.

Evan Hubinger, another developer at Anthropic, said in a Sept. 8 post on X that Coxon was correct in his assertion that people building AI believe it could kill all humans, and that he personally pegs the risk at under 10 percent within the next decade.

"I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to," he said, referring to AI following instructions and restrictions.

"To be clear, as we say in our latest Risk Report, I think the risk from present models is low. What I am worried about is superintelligence arising from recursive self-improvement, as we have said is happening faster than we thought."

Samuel Marks, who works on safety research at Anthropic, said in a Sept. 9 post on X that he also agrees that AI could lead to human extinction as soon as the next few years.

"Why do AI developers continue despite the risk? Due to a mixture of commercial incentives and a belief that they are in a race with other, less responsible AI developers that will abuse the technology or develop it less safely," Marks said.

[Writing this in a personal capacity, not on behalf of my employer (Anthropic).]

Jacob’s thread is very worth reading. Here’s my birds-eye view of the situation with risks from AI:

1. AI developers believe their technology could cause human extinction (or similarly bad… https://t.co/rCVoiOWWzm

— Samuel Marks (@saprmarks) September 9, 2026

Marks said it's not possible to program AIs to behave how people would like, that AI agents frequently "severely misbehave," and that the current plan is to train AI to align with restrictions to the point the agents can train their successors better than humans can currently train AI. He said he's conducting research "because I hope my work will reduce the chance of these extinction-level bad outcomes."

[ZH: We can't help but feel in the same week we see OpenAI 'solves' Navier-Stokes, we get another glut of existential warnings about just how awesome (in the scary sense) these models are... all sounds like a marketing psy-op... similar to the fence-jumping episodes with Hugging Face etc 'showing off' how great the agents are (and how they need regulating (i.e a path to shutting out open-weight models)... but could just be our skeptical bias emerging...]

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 12:00

Steve Eisman: What If OpenAI Actually Fails?

Steve Eisman has spent most of the years since the financial crisis being asked, in his words, to predict the end of the world. In his latest weekly wrap - recorded Thursday night as the 10-year brushed 4.8%, he says he's still not there on AI, but if he were - he lays out exactly how it would happen.

Eisman is not predicting that OpenAI fails - but it is the weak link in a chain that runs from two money-losing labs, through hyperscaler capex, to roughly half of projected US GDP growth - and arguing that it's "not too early to think about" what happens if the link breaks.

"I predicted the end of the world once, and believe me, it was no fun. I am in no rush to predict the end of the world again, unless I am really convinced that it's going to happen. But I'm not going to make such a prediction just because it will get a lot of press. There is no question in my mind that the entire US economy hinges on the success of AI. The amount being spent is just so large that were it to stop, the economy would go into a recession almost immediately."

The chain: two companies, $700 billion of capex, half of GDP growth

Eisman waves off the two "bubble" arguments echoing through the halls - and that both hyperscalers' vanished free cash flow, and Nvidia's circular financing - are survivable if AI pays off. The real vulnerability, he argues, sits one layer down:

"So where is the Achilles heel? I think that it resides with Anthropic and OpenAI, because they are so central to the entire AI food chain. According to reports from various Wall Street firms, something like 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue comes from Anthropic and OpenAI... I can't confirm those statistics, but they sound right given what we actually know about Oracle."

From there it's arithmetic:

"Hyperscalers are spending about $700 billion in capex this year, and even more next year, and that spend accounts for around half of the 2% GDP growth projected for 2026. So one must conclude that the health of the US economy is extremely dependent on hyperscaler capex, and hyperscaler capex is highly dependent on the health of Anthropic and OpenAI. That's the chain."

OpenAI is... the weakest link

Between the two labs, Eisman says, "OpenAI is the weaker entity" - pointing to a WSJ report on the 2nd quarter. 

"OpenAI's June quarter revenue reached $6.7 billion, up only 18% versus the March quarter. Compare that to Anthropic's revenue of $11 billion-plus in the June quarter, which was up over 100%... OpenAI's costs reached $12.3 billion, up $3 billion versus the March quarter. So, in three months, revenue increased $1 billion, but costs surged $3 billion. Things are not moving in the right direction."

(ZH Note; the $12.3 billion Eisman calls "costs" is OpenAI's operating loss, including stock-based compensation, up from $9.3 billion in the first quarter, per WSJ. On $6.7 billion of revenue, that implies an expense line closer to $19 billion. Revenue rose $1 billion; the loss rose $3 billion.)

Then the departures. Chief revenue officer Denise Dresser left in August after roughly eight months, two days after Brad Lightcap ended an eight-year run. Eisman reads both through the lens of an IPO that keeps sliding:

"Supposedly, OpenAI is getting closer to an IPO. That's the big payday for employees, because it means that eventually they can sell some of their shares. That two such senior employees would leave now is an important data point."

Two fairness notes: Lightcap had already been moved out of the COO role in April, so his exit was telegraphed. And Eisman doesn't mention Fidji Simo, who stepped down in July and was arguably the bigger loss.

The heart of the argument is what unprofitability does to a company's relationship with its funders:

"When you lose billions upon billions, appearances matter a lot. OpenAI is completely dependent on the kindness of strangers funding its cash flow needs. When a company is growing and very profitable, appearances don't matter nearly as much... But when a company is not profitable and has an insatiable need for capital, appearances matter more than anything, because if the narrative turns negative, raising capital becomes much more difficult."

That's why he flags last week's "good news" - OpenAI's ad business hitting a $1 billion annualized run rate - as bad news: earlier this year the company projected $2.4 billion of ad revenue for all of 2026, and $1 billion annualized in September doesn't get there. 

pic.twitter.com/WGH5sNDwYz

— cocktail peanut (@cocktailpeanut) September 8, 2026

Oracle is the first domino - and the market has already run the drill once

"If OpenAI fails, Oracle is in immediate trouble because of the large increase in Oracle's debt levels. Oracle's debt rating is barely above junk. Oracle's S&P credit rating is triple-B-minus, which is quite weak. Like I said before, it has a $600 billion backlog, and half of that backlog is from OpenAI."

That isn't Eisman's inference; it's S&P's. When the agency cut Oracle to BBB- on July 9, it named OpenAI a "key credit risk," put the lab at roughly half of a $638 billion RPO, and spelled out the failure path: if OpenAI can't pay, Oracle is left holding data center leases it can't exit or must re-lease on worse terms.

Eisman's point is that investors have already seen the preview:

"Prior to the earnings report, the stock was $230 a share. In just a few days, it jumped to $330 a share. Then analysts started publishing reports pointing out that 50% of the RPO was from OpenAI, and the stock gave back all of its gains, plus, in a few months. Today the stock is around $145... From the peak, the stock is down over 50%. That decline is because the market perceives an over-reliance on OpenAI. Imagine what the market would do to Oracle stock if OpenAI fails."

Why it doesn't stop at tech - and what he's doing about it

"The ramifications of an OpenAI failure extend far beyond just Oracle. Remember I said that AI capex accounts for 50% of US GDP growth. While the other hyperscalers are not quite as dependent on Anthropic and OpenAI as Oracle, they are dependent enough. If OpenAI failed, the hyperscalers, I am sure, would cut back on their capex. So I'm starting to think that the demise of OpenAI could push the US into an almost immediate recession."

Affected sectors are all over the place... It isn't just Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Oracle and Nvidia. It's the investment banks, sitting at peak valuations on a financing cycle that AI is feeding. It's GE Vernova and Quanta on power, Eaton and Rockwell on electrification and automation. The uncomfortable implication: a portfolio that "diversifies" across tech, financials and industrials may own three versions of the same trade.

His answer is reallocation, not stock-picking - healthcare, consumer staples, and within financials the property-and-casualty names - and he names three ETFs by ticker: LVHD, SPLV and KBWP. Then the caveat that should anchor this whole piece:

"It's still early, and I want to emphasize that I am not making a major call. Not yet. I'm just preparing."

That Said...

OpenAI has its own numbers. CFO Sarah Friar told employees that July's annualized revenue already exceeded the entire second quarter, and the company says its run rate has topped $40 billion. Worth knowing: that is a latest-month annualization, while recognized Q2 revenue annualizes closer to $27 billion. Second, strangers have been extremely kind. A March round at a valuation above $852 billion reportedly raised more than $122 billion. Runway isn't the near-term issue, it's the next raise - which is Eisman's point.

One more: Nvidia, where "both things can be true"

Eisman's read of Nvidia's $96.2 billion quarter - revenue up 106% year over year - is that the AI story "continues but is displaying potential weakness," and that "both apparently contradictory ideas can be true." His evidence for the weakness is Note 7 of the 10-Q: five direct customers at 22%, 14%, 13%, 11% and 10% of accounts receivable, which he sums to 70% and assumes "must be the hyperscalers."

Careful there. That disclosure is receivables, not revenue, and Nvidia's direct customers include distributors, ODMs and system integrators, not just clouds. The revenue disclosure in the same filing shows one direct customer at 16% of the quarter. The better version of Eisman's point is one sentence lower in the 10-Q: Nvidia estimates that one "AI research and deployment company" - OpenAI's own description of itself - contributed a meaningful amount of revenue by buying cloud services from Nvidia's customers. Same dependency, no arithmetic error.

And the circularity he mentions in passing is in Nvidia's own release: roughly $7.8 billion of gains on equity securities ran through other income this quarter, which is why GAAP net income ($59.7 billion) tops non-GAAP ($54.0 billion). Nvidia invests in the companies that buy its chips, then books the markups.

Eisman's closing line on all of it:

"Once again, it looks like the entire AI ecosystem is dependent on the future health and success of two companies that currently lose billions. Again, if Anthropic or OpenAI ever get into trouble, the whole AI ecosystem will slow to a crawl."

Watch the entire episode below: 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 11:00