"Do Not Mistake Compliance For Surrender" - Alina Habba Steps Down As Acting US Attorney For New Jersey

Alina Habba, the former personal attorney to President Trump, is stepping down from her contested position atop the federal prosecuting office in New Jersey.

"As a result of the Third Circuit's ruling, and to protect the stability and integrity of the office which I love, I have decided to step down in my role," she said in a statement posted on X on Monday.

Habba’s resignation came after district and appellate court rulings which found she was unlawfully serving in the role, a powerful post charged with enforcing federal criminal and civil law.

The Trump administration had been attempting to keep Habba in place after her interim appointment expired and she had not received US Senate confirmation.

Habba’s statement Monday said “do not mistake compliance for surrender”.

pic.twitter.com/wIhEvXXZoh

— Alina Habba (@AlinaHabba) December 8, 2025

“Make no mistake, you can take the girl out of New Jersey, but you cannot take New Jersey out of the girl,” Habba’s statement said.

Attorney General Pam Bondi said that Habba would remain at the Department of Justice as senior advisor to the attorney general for U.S. Attorneys.

“I am saddened to accept Alina’s resignation,” Bondi said, calling the appellate court's decision "flawed".

pic.twitter.com/bid0ao1y4B

— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) December 8, 2025

Bondi credited Habba with helping to reduce crime in Camden and Newark, New Jersey, and said the DOJ would continue “to review” the appeals court ruling.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 15:00

Border Czar Says 62,000 Illegally Smuggled Children Rescued So Far

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

White House border czar Tom Homan on Dec. 7 said more than 60,000 children who were illegally smuggled into the United States have been located by the Trump administration and that some were rescued from dire situations, including sex trafficking and forced labor.

In an interview with the Fox News show “Fox & Friends” on Dec. 7, Homan said that the previous administration “lost track of 300,000” children who were “smuggled into” the United States, saying some of those children were released to ”unvetted sponsors.”

Since President Donald Trump took office in January, 62,000 children who were taken into the United States had been found as of Dec. 5, he said.

Homan said that “many of them are in sex trafficking,” “are in forced labor,” or are being abused.

He also said, “[I] can’t discuss some of the mistreatment we found out about.”

Homan said that Trump committed to doing everything possible “to find every one of these children.” He did not provide more details about the rescued children but said that the administration “saved over 62,000 children’s lives.”

A statement released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on Dec. 5 stated that the number of border encounters is continuing to decline; 30,367 total encounters were reported to the agency nationwide in November. That’s down slightly from the 30,573 encounters nationwide in October, it said.

Border Patrol also said that it has released “zero illegal aliens” into the country for seven consecutive months.

In December 2024, the final month of President Joe Biden’s administration, there were more than 301,981 encounters at the southwest border sector by Border Patrol agents, according to data from the agency. There were about 11,600 such encounters in September 2025, the most recent month for which data are available.

“Our focus is unwavering: secure the border, enforce the law, and protect this nation,” CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott said in the Dec. 5 statement. “These numbers reflect the tireless efforts of our agents and officers who are delivering results that redefine border security. We’re not slowing down. We’re setting the pace for the future.”

The Border Patrol efforts and the mass deportation of illegal immigrants are in line with campaign promises made by Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign. And since taking office, he has signed multiple executive orders and memorandums, including declaring an emergency at the U.S.–Mexico border, designating several criminal gangs as terrorist organizations, and launching federal operations targeting illegal immigrants in Chicago, Los Angeles, and other cities.

The Supreme Court agreed on Dec. 5 to hear a case challenging the legality of an executive order issued by Trump that sought to end birthright citizenship. Multiple lower courts have ruled against the January order, which would bar children born in the United States to parents who are in the country illegally from automatically becoming citizens.

Democrats have been broadly critical of the Trump administration’s immigration policies. A House lawmaker introduced a bill in May that would prohibit the use of federal funds to enforce any order barring birthright citizenship. At the state level, multiple governors and mayors have also been opposed the federal deportation operations.

Meanwhile, in the past week, the Trump administration paused all immigration applications, including applications for green cards, for people from 19 countries that are also subject to a travel ban imposed earlier this year, as part of sweeping immigration changes in the wake of the shooting of two National Guard troops.

A policy memo issued on the website of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the agency tasked with processing and approving all requests for immigration benefits, said the policy applies to citizens of Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.

The Epoch Times contacted the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees border- and immigration-related matters, for additional comment but did not hear back by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 14:40

India Plans Coal Expansion Through 2047 Despite Supposed "Climate Goals"

It's funny how no one actually seems to care about climate change malarky when there isn't an environmentalist Democrat in the White House to try and impress...

Along that vein, India is weighing a major expansion of coal power that could extend new plant construction until at least 2047, according to people familiar with ongoing discussions between the power ministry and the government policy think tank NITI Aayog. The move would represent a sharp departure from earlier projections that expected additions to peak around 2035, Bloomberg reported this week.

The talks align with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s push to make the country energy independent and reclassify it as a developed nation by its 100th year of independence. With domestic reserves expected to last a century, officials see coal as the most reliable option to support that goal. Total capacity could reach 420 gigawatts by 2047 — roughly an 87% increase from today, the people said.

Bloomberg writes that the people added that the government still plans to expand renewable energy and battery storage, but warns that solar and battery supply chains remain vulnerable, especially because “China…dominates much of the supply chain for batteries and solar panels.” Some of the planned coal units would be geared toward balancing intermittent renewable generation, with the ministry offering incentives for plants that operate more flexibly.

Such a move risks complicating India’s climate commitments. NITI Aayog projections indicate that emissions must peak by 2045 to meet Modi’s target of becoming net zero by 2070. India, the world’s third-largest emitter, has yet to submit updated emissions-reduction strategies for 2035 under the Paris Agreement, arguing that richer nations should shoulder a bigger share of decarbonization to allow developing economies to grow.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 14:25

Rickards: 8 Events Driving The Gold Frenzy

Authored by James Rickards via Investors Daily,

Events are moving quickly in the gold market. You know about the run-up in the price of gold; it has become a mainstream media story. But the gold situation is bigger than that. There are important developments almost daily that will sustain the gold bull market for years to come. Let’s look briefly at the gold price action and then turn to these breaking developments.

Gold is in its third great bull market. There really were no bull or bear markets from 1870 to 1971 because the world was on a gold standard at a fixed price. The global gold standard had flaws. Some countries joined earlier than others. The U.S. did not formally adhere to a gold standard until 1900, but the UK and the London gold market maintained a steady price from 1815 after the Napoleonic Wars until 1914 after which the U.S. maintained a world price.

There were breaks in the system in 1931-1934 when the UK and U.S. devalued their currencies against gold, but a new fixed priced was established. A true floating rate market in gold did not emerge until Richard Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

The first bull market (1971 – 1980) saw gold soar 2,200% in eight years. The second bull market (1991 – 2011) witnessed a gold price rally of 670% in twelve years.

The third bull market (which we are in today) can be more difficult to date. If one begins at the interim low of $1,050 per ounce in December 2015 until today’s price of $4,220 per ounce, then the gain is 300% over ten years, which is less than the two prior bull markets. Of course, this bull market is far from over and material gains in the near future should be expected.

However, gold moved in a range of $1,000 per ounce to $2,000 per ounce during almost all of the 2015 – 2025 period until July 1, 2023, when a breakout above $2,000 per ounce began. If we date the bull market from that point, we see a rally of 110% in just over two years.

10k Per Ounce or Higher

If we take the average gain for the first and second bull markets, which is over 1,400%, and take an average duration of ten years and apply those metrics to a baseline of $2,000 per ounce in 2023, that suggests gold will reach $28,000 per ounce by 2033. Of course, this method is arbitrary. Gains could be much larger and come much faster. A replay of the 1971 – 1980 scenario would put gold close to $100,000 per ounce by 2032.

• From $1,000 to $2,000 = 100% gain

• From $2,000 to $3,000 = 50% gain

• From $3,000 to $4,000 = 33% gain

• From $4,000 to $5,000 = 25% gain

• From $9,000 to $10,000 = 11% gain

With this as background, it’s entirely reasonable to suggest gold could reach $10,000 per ounce by late 2026 on its way much higher. What few investors may realize is that each $1,000 increase in the price of gold is easier than the one before. The price gain is the same at each milestone, but the percentage increase is smaller because each increase is working from a higher base. Going from $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce is a 25% gain. But going from $9,000 to $10,000 per ounce is only an 11% gain. This is why the push to $10,000 per ounce will go slowly at first and then quickly.

Underreported Events to Consider

That much is widely known.

What is less well known is series of underreported events that will turbocharge the price gains ahead.

Here is a summary of those events:

1. Central banks remain net buyers of gold as they have been since 2010. This puts an informal floor under the price of gold while still allowing unlimited upside.

2. Mining output has been flat for last six years. This does not mean “peak gold”, but it shows that gold is getting harder to find and more expensive to mine. Supply constraints + expanding demand = higher prices.

3. The copper-to-gold price ratio is at an all-time low. This speaks to the relative role of industrial metals versus precious metals. The gold price can rise in recessionary scenarios and depressions. Gains are not limited to periods of inflation and hot economies.

4. Russia has demonstrated that it can survive Western dollar-based financial sanctions by holding over 25% of its reserves in physical gold. That’s a lesson the world and especially the BRICS are internalizing.

5. Digitally tokenized gold has become a huge new source of demand. Tether is leading the way with its XAUt token that has a current market cap (tied to the price of gold) of $2.2 trillion. The gold held in vaults to support the token now exceeds 16.2 metric tonnes, more than some countries. This gold is not traded, and the token is only redeemable for cash, not physical gold. This means Tether is the ultimate buy-and-hold gold investor and their gold is effectively off the market.

6. Italy has recently taken steps to asset that Italian gold (2,452 metric tonnes; the third largest gold reserve in the world after the U.S. and Germany) belongs to the Italian people and not to the Bank of Italy. That dispute has cooled down, but its mere existence shows that a global struggle for possession of physical gold is underway.

7. Television and media personality Tucker Carlson has launched an online gold dealing operation. That’s only one among many online dealers, but it shows that gold ownership is reaching a wider audience and we are getting closer to the retail frenzy stage of price appreciation.

8. The U.S. Treasury is giving serious consideration to revaluing its gold reserves by causing the Federal Reserve to restate the value of its gold certificate given when the Treasury took the Fed’s gold in 1934. The current value of the certificate is $42.22 per ounce. If revalued to $4,200 per ounce, this would not change the world price of gold (it’s just an accounting entry), but it would add about $1 trillion to the Treasury’s account at the Fed and it would show that the U.S. respects gold as a legitimate monetary asset.

Other material developments in the gold markets are occurring almost daily. We expect this to continue. If you have not invested in gold yet or if your allocation is small, it’s not too late to invest. The biggest gains are still ahead and will happen sooner than later.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 14:05

Ukraine Claims It Can Intercept Conversations Of Kremlin Officials

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency has boasted of being capable of intercepting conversations of senior Russian officials. He made the big claim in a fresh local media interview, but didn't back it up by proof or any specifics.

"Yes, we can. We get paid for this," stated the agency's chief, Kyrylo Budanov, to RBC-Ukraine on Sunday. He had specifically been asked whether Ukrainian intelligence can eavesdrop on Kremlin officials.

AFP via Getty Images

The remarks come after recent leaks hit Western press related to Trump officials negotiating with Kremlin officials over the future of the Ukraine war and Trump's peace plan.

But Kiev has obviously not been happy with the White House plan, which offers Russia significant territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and along with European leaders has been actively trying to thwart it. Thus Ukraine has motive to try and leak as much as possible of interactions between the US and Russia.

In late November, Bloomberg reported that the 28-point peace proposal was drafted by Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff together with Russian lawmaker Kirill Dmitriev during a meeting in Miami in October. As a result, Ukrainian and EU officials tried to smear it as ultimately a 'Russian-desired plan'.

The outlet later released two transcripts of conversations involving Russian and US officials. They purported to reveal Witkoff advising the Russian side on how to best pitch the Kremlin’s ideas to Trump.

Spy chief Budanov in touting Ukraine's eavesdropping capabilities seems to be hinting at involvement; however, these leaks could have just as easily come from the Russian side, or even someone within the a delegation.

After all, the Kremlin has benefited from courting Witkoff and Kushner, while being in the driver's seat militarily on the battlefield. It is enjoying projecting to the world it is not so 'isolated', and is calling many of the shots with Washington because it has real leverage.

On Monday, President Zelensky is in London meeting with Europeans, where they are working on what they call a more 'fair' and 'just' ceasefire plan.

The president and the pretender. Zaluzhny greets Zelensky in London. pic.twitter.com/JEGO58lffp

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) December 8, 2025

The European outline so far makes no mention of giving up territory, and even leaves the door open for Ukraine's future path to NATO membership. These things are of course a non-starter for Moscow, and that might be the point.

President Putin has already long said that any plan which refuses territorial concessions or to rule out NATO membership would be dead on arrival, and could never be accepted by Russia.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:40

Solid, Stopping-Through 3Y Auction Boosted By Surge In Foreign Demand

Due to the FOMC meeting falling on a Wednesday, the Treasury is scrambling to issue this week's coupon auctions, starting with a $58BN 3Y auction which saw solid demand when it was offered at 1pm ET.

The sale of $58BN in 3 year paper priced at a high yield of 3.614%, up from 3.579% in November, and the highest since August. The auction also stopped through the 3.622% When Issued by 0.8bps, the 4th consecutive stopping through 3Y auction.

The bid to cover was dropped to 2.641 from 3.850 but was still just above the 2.632 six-auction average.

The internals were more solid, with Indirects awarded 72.0%, up sharply from 63.0% in November and the highest since September. It was also one of the highest foreign awards on record.

And with Directs taking down 19.0%, down from 27.32 last month, Dealers were left holding just 9.03%, the lowest since September, and below the 13.1% recent average.

Overall, this was a very solid auction, one which came at just the right time: with 10Y yields surging today just shy of 4.20% before retracing the move and dipping by about 1bp on the solid 3Y auction results. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:25

The DPI Link To Margin Debt

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI). Here is Simon’s point.

“Yet, where history does raise a red flag is if we look at the cost of carrying the margin debt. Based on an idea from Investec Research, we can estimate the total cost of carrying margin debt versus GDP (I also adjust margin debt for credit balances). This net margin debt has only been higher in the pandemic, when savings went through the roof. As we can see, cost-of-carry peaks for net margin debt have preceded significant downward moves in stocks: the tech bust in 2000, the GFC bear market in 2008, the near 20% correction in 2018 and the 2022 bear market.“

Before we proceed with our discussion, margin debt now stands at a record of more than $1.1 trillion, up nearly 40% on an annual basis.

Why is that important? It is essential to reiterate a crucial point about margin debt.

“Margin debt is not a technical indicator for trading markets. What it represents is the amount of speculation occurring in the market. In other words, margin debt is the “gasoline,” which drives markets higher as the leverage provides for the additional purchasing power of assets. However, leverage also works in reverse, as it supplies the accelerant for more significant declines as lenders “force” the sale of assets to cover credit lines without regard to the borrower’s position.

The last sentence is the most important. The issue with margin debt is that the unwinding of leverage is NOT at the investor’s discretion. That process is at the discretion of the broker-dealers that extended that leverage in the first place. (In other words, if you don’t sell to cover, the broker-dealer will do it for you.) When lenders fear they may not recoup their credit lines, they force the borrower to put in more cash or sell assets to cover the debt. The problem is that “margin calls” generally happen simultaneously, as falling asset prices impact all lenders simultaneously.“

In other words, the risk with margin debt is:

“Margin debt is a double-edged sword, and the edge that cuts you, cuts the deepest.”

So, why are we discussing this? Because margin debt levels are reaching a point where forward market returns are substantially lower.

Which brings us back to Simon White and the cost of carrying margin debt.

The Link Between Disposable Personal Income and Margin Debt

Currently, household allocations to equities are at a record. Of course, such should be unsurprising given the strong market advances over the past few years.

There is more to this story than just rising asset prices. When investors are chasing a bull market, they initially invest their savings in the financial markets. If prices continue to rise, they then turn to margin debt to continue investing. However, as noted above, that is a “bullish benefit” to the market as the leverage increases investors’ “buying power.”

However, margin debt is not “free,” and generally carries an interest rate that is two percentage points above the bank’s “prime lending” rate. Currently, the bank’s prime lending rate is around 7%, which suggests that most margin debt is carrying an interest rate of 9%. Therefore, investors must consider the interest rate risk associated with the borrowed capital to generate a profit. Over the last three years, returns of 10% or more have been relatively easy, at least so far.

But that brings us to our warning. Understanding the link between disposable personal income (DPI) and margin debt is crucial for assessing market risk. DPI is the income households have after taxes, available for saving or investing. When DPI growth slows, households have fewer fresh savings to deploy. In this context, some investors turn to margin borrowing to maintain or increase exposure.

In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. Disposable Personal Income (DPI) stood at approximately $22.858 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. This figure represents a nominal increase from $22.564 trillion in Q1 2025. While that growth suggests income levels are still rising, further data paint a more nuanced picture of investor capacity and market risk. Real disposable personal income (adjusted for inflation) for Q2 2025 grew by about 3.1% year‑over‑year. This growth rate remains below the long‑term average of roughly 3.44%. In practical terms, households are seeing slower growth in their “money left over” after taxes and basic costs, reducing the flow of new savings that could be invested.

Margin debt as a percentage of real DPI has been reported at around 6.23 %, the highest on record. This ratio also suggests that for every $100 of real DPI, roughly $6 of margin debt is outstanding, a non‐trivial amount.

Naturally, when fresh savings are lacking and investors turn to margin to participate in markets, two risks emerge.

1. The quality of the investor base weakens because borrowed money replaces savings.

2. The carrying cost of that borrowing becomes more salient when interest rates are elevated. If the margin debt carries higher interest and investors’ income growth is weak, servicing the debt becomes harder, reducing the buffer against loss.

In summary, weak DPI growth, combined with elevated margin borrowing, creates a vulnerability. In such an environment, the investor base is much less resilient.

The “Cost Of Carry”

In recent years, not only has margin debt surged, but the “cost of carrying” that debt has also risen. As borrowing costs increase, the break‐even point for leveraged equity exposure rises. If an investor borrows at a higher interest rate and the market stagnates or declines, the drag from interest and margin loan costs erodes returns. Simon’s view of carrying costs as a percentage of GDP is correct. However, another salient perspective is to consider them as a function of DPI. In other words, if an investor account is fully invested, margin interest must be paid either by selling assets or from disposable income.

With margin debt expense as a percentage of DPI at the highest level on record, the risk of market reversal becomes elevated. Higher interest rates also mean that margin borrowing becomes less attractive relative to other uses of capital. If margin rates rise, investors holding prominent borrowed positions may face higher servicing costs and increased pressure in the event of a correction. In such an environment, as shown above, the historical outcome has been one of increased financial fragility.

Moreover, elevated rates can suppress earnings growth across the economy, reducing incentive returns and market momentum. For leveraged investors, slower earnings growth makes it harder to absorb the cost of borrowing. Therefore, from a market‑structure perspective, the combination of high margin debt and high borrowing costs creates a vulnerability:

• Leverage is greater.

• Investor income growth is weaker.

• The carrying cost of debt is higher.

These three factors form a feedback loop: high costs and weak income reduce investor resilience; a market drawdown triggers margin calls, which in turn accelerate the decline through forced selling. Academic models of margin trading indicate that this type of feedback loop can transform a modest correction into a sharper decline.

Thus, rising carrying costs of margin debt amplify the risk embedded in the margin debt–DPI link.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:25

Judge Temporarily Blocks DOJ From Using Evidence Proving James Comey's Guilt

Via Headline USA,

A federal judge has dealt a setback to Justice Department efforts to seek a new indictment against former FBI Director James Comey, temporarily barring prosecutors from using evidence they had relied on when they initially secured criminal charges.

The ruling Saturday night from U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly does not preclude the department from trying again soon to indict Comey, but it does suggest prosecutors may have to do so without citing communications between Comey and a close friend, Columbia University law professor Daniel Richman.

Comey was charged in September with lying to Congress when he denied having authorized an associate to serve as an anonymous source for media coverage about the FBI.

In pursuing the case, prosecutors cited messages between Comey and Richman that they said showed Comey encouraging Richman to engage with the media for certain FBI-related coverage.

The case was dismissed last month after a different federal judge ruled that the prosecutor who filed the charges, Lindsey Halligan, was unlawfully appointed by the Trump administration.

But that ruling left open the possibility that the government could try again to seek charges against Comey, a longtime foe of President Donald Trump.

After the case was thrown out, lawyers for Richman sought a court order that would bar prosecutors from continued access to his computer files, which the Justice Department obtained through search warrants in 2019 and 2020 as part of a media leak investigation that was later closed without charges.

But Richman and his lawyers say that in preparing the criminal case against Comey, prosecutors relied on data that exceeded the scope of the warrants, illegally held onto communications they should have destroyed or returned and conducted new, warrantless searches of the files.

Kollar-Kotelly on Saturday night granted Richman’s request for a temporary restraining, instructing the department “not to access the covered materials once they are identified, segregated, and secured, or to share, disseminate, or disclose the covered materials to any person, without first seeking and obtaining leave of this Court.”

“Given that the custody and control of this material is the central issue in this matter, uncertainty about its whereabouts weighs in favor of acting promptly to preserve the status quo,” the judge stated.

Kollar-Kotelly ordered the government to “identify, segregate, and secure” the image of Richman’s personal computer, along with his email accounts and other materials taken from his electronic devices, and barred prosecutors from accessing those files without the court’s permission.

She gave the Justice Department until Monday afternoon to certify that it is compliance with the order.

A Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment Sunday on the ruling and what it meant for revived charges against Comey.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 12:00

Trump's Corollary To The Monroe Doctrine Changes Everything

By Benjamin Pictor, senior market strategst at Rabobank

US equity indices closed in on new highs on Friday as traders look ahead to this week’s FOMC meeting and place bets that monetary conditions are poised to get a little easier. Nevertheless, the US sovereign curve shifted higher by almost 4 basis points, with around half of that move coming after the release of September PCE inflation figures.

The September PCE result was broadly in-line with the expectations of surveyed economists. The headline measure rose 0.3% MoM while the core figure rose 0.2%. That resulted in 2.8% YoY growth for both series. Real personal spending data missed expectations of a 0.1% lift to be flat for the month, supporting the case of the doves leading into this week’s FOMC meeting. A 0.4% lift in August was also revised down to 0.2%, while personal incomes slightly outperformed expectations.

The concurrently-released University of Michigan consumer sentiment index showed overall sentiment rising from 51.0 to 53.3 and a moderating in both short and long-term inflation expectations (even amongst Democrats!). Current conditions fell slightly, while the expectations sub-index surged to 55.0 as respondents’ views of their personal finances seemingly reiterated the signal from the September personal income figures but still remained below levels recorded early in the year. Labor market sentiment improved slightly but remained pessimistic overall to underscore the sense that employment conditions in the USA have been trending worse. The latest JOLTS report to be released on Tuesday will provide further signal on that score.

Friday also saw the release of labor market figures for Canada, which surprised handily to the upside. Net employment grew by 53,600 positions and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 6.9% to 6.5%, having been helped along by a falling participation rate. To put the fall in context, the median expectation of surveyed economists was for unemployment to rise to 7.0%. Consequently, Canadian OIS has followed the Aussie market from implying a small probability of further monetary easing in 2026 to suddenly having a rate by the end of the year fully-priced. Understandably, USDCAD fell by more than a big figure on the day before finding support at 1.3820.

This week will give us a better clue as to what the RBA thinks of the rapid reprice that has occurred in Aussie interest rates over the last month and a bit. The RBA will makes its final policy rate determination for the year on Tuesday, and is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, having cut it three times earlier this year. With growth and inflation resurgent recently, and the labor market still tight by historical standards (albeit trending weaker), market expectations have shifted from having another cut in the first half of 2026 fully priced as recently as the start of November to now having a hike by the end of 2026 fully priced.

This week’s FOMC meeting and the accompanying release of an updated dot-plot will undoubtedly occupy the bulk of traders’ attention (see our preview here), but the recently released US National Security Strategy deserves staking out the ground that economics and finance is likely to be operating within over the years ahead. We will include a deeper-dive into the strategy and its implications tomorrow, but the broad headlines are US prioritization of the Western Hemisphere through a ‘Trump-corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine, reindustrialization and energy dominance as elements of national security, maintenance of military dominance and the integrity of the First Island Chain (vis-à-vis China), and – uncomfortably for Europe – support for nationalism over supra-national structures that the US says are subverting democracy and contributing to a lack of civilizational self-confidence.

Tellingly, the document calls for international cooperation on addressing large trade imbalances that have been created by China’s investment-led economy – particularly China’s reliance on external demand to soak up its large exportable surplus of goods, thereby displacing demand for locally-produced goods in other parts of the world (see today’s WSJ for more on that). Explicitly, the document says “America First diplomacy seeks to rebalance global trade relationships. We have made clear to our allies that America’s current account deficit is unsustainable. We must encourage Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and other prominent nations in adopting trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household consumption...” For those playing along at home, that means the USA wants you to tariff China.

Of course, some are already doing this. We have seen a number of trade barriers erected between Canada and China, Europe and China, and Mexico and China in recent months. The clear trend is toward more of this as Emmanuel Macron over the weekend told Les Echos that “I told them [China] that if they don’t react [to reduce trade imbalances], we Europeans will be forced to take strong measures... such as tariffs on Chinese products.” Macron contextualised the need for these measures by articulating the existential challenge that European industry faces from competition with China: “China wants to pierce the heart of European industrial and innovation model, which has been historically based on machine tools and the automobile.”

While the US National Security Strategy may make for uncomfortable reading, to a certain extent it is simply a more forthright articulation of problems that many Europeans have already sensed. Clearly, the United States now has a low tolerance for European weakness because the administration in Washington sees that as an emerging threat to the US’s own security.

So, while the USA might want to take a less direct role in the security arrangements of the continent, perhaps we should expect it to take an increasingly direct role in the continent’s political arrangements.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 11:30

Buffett Protégé Todd Combs Leaving Berkshire For JPMorgan

Warren Buffett, 95, has still not departed the investment conglomerate he founded decades ago, and already Berkshire Hathaway is rocked by departures: this morning we learned that his investment protégé Todd Combs is leaving Berkshire for a new role at JPMorgan Chase, as a new guard prepares to take over at the sprawling $1.1tn conglomerate.

Todd Combs was seen as Warren Buffett’s investment protégé

Berkshire announced Combs’ departure alongside a series of wider leadership changes on Monday, which come as Buffett prepares to hand over the reins to top Berkshire executive Greg Abel in the new year.

Buffett said that Combs “has resigned to accept an interesting and important job at JPMorgan . . . JPMorgan, as usually is the case, has made a good decision.”

Combs, who until now was chief executive of Geico -the US car insurance company that is one of the most important companies inside the group - is one of two investment managers at Berkshire reporting directly to Buffett. 

Combs will run JPMorgan’s new $10bn Strategic Investment Group, which aims to take stakes in companies critical to national security and is seen as catering to President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies; the 54-year-old will report to Jamie Dimon.

JPMorgan’s $10bn fund, part of a wider $1.5tn financing commitment, turned heads on Wall Street when it was announced in October as it is unusual for banks to take equity stakes in industrial companies. Combs will be tasked with finding investments in the defence, aerospace, healthcare and energy sectors. 

JPMorgan also announced an external advisory council for this program which includes tech founders Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell and former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice.

Combs has been a member of the bank’s board of directors for nine years but is resigning to take his new post.

Dimon described Combs as “one of the greatest investors and leaders I’ve known”.

Buffett hired Combs in 2010 as the company looked to boost its investment bona fides for a time when the now 95-year-old investor was no longer running Berkshire. 

Initially, Combs was a contender to be the future chief investment officer, overseeing Berkshire's entire $283 BN stock portfolio, and eventually amassed control over tens of billions of dollars of stocks alongside Ted Weschler, Buffett’s other investment deputy.

He was appointed Geico chief executive in 2019 and was also seen as a possible successor to Ajit Jain at the top of Berkshire’s wider insurance division.

However, as the FT reports, Abel’s ascent at the company raised questions over the roles Combs and Weschler would have overseeing Berkshire’s stocks. Buffett last year said that he believed his successor should have the final say over investment decisions, including how the company’s cash is deployed to invest in stocks.

Nancy Pierce, Geico’s chief operating officer, will replace Combs at the top of the unit, one of the largest auto insurers in the country.

There were other notable moves announced today: Berkshire's long-standing chief financial officer, Marc Hamburg, would retire in 2027 after 40 years at the company, and for the first time appointed a general counsel to lead its legal efforts. Hamburg will be replaced by the chief financial officer of Berkshire’s energy unit, Charles Chang.

“He has done more for this company than many of our shareholders will ever know,” Buffett said of Hamburg. “His impact has been extraordinary.”

Michael O’Sullivan, who earlier in his career was a partner at the law firm founded by late-Berkshire vice chair Charlie Munger, will start as general counsel in January. He has had the role at the messaging app Snap since 2017.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 11:15

Key Events This Busy Week: Fed, JOLTs, Central Banks Galore; Oracle & Broadcom Earnings

It's a busy week for both economic news and central banks, with all roads pointing to Wednesday’s FOMC, where overwhelming consensus is for the Fed to deliver a final and third 25bps rate cut for 2025, making it 6 cuts and 175bps in this easing cycle since September 2024 (there was a very painful path to get here with several communication mix ups by Fed officials).

The decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with dissent anticipated from both hawkish and dovish members. Should four or more officials break ranks, it would mark the largest split since 1992 (Polymarket odds of 4+ dissents is at 22%).

Beyond the headline move, the tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and the accompanying statement will be critical. DB's Jim Reid says he expects Powell to "emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signalling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility ahead of likely softer labor market data due later in December."

Beyond the Fed, the global calendar features several other central bank decisions and important data releases. Maybe tech earnings from Oracle (Wednesday) and Broadcom (Thursday) will be the most interesting, with the two names diverging considerably over the last couple of months. The former is down -34% over this period with the latter only -3% off its all-time-high seen a couple of weeks ago.

In terms of central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow, where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, but with a hawkish tilt likely after recent inflation increases. The January 7th inflation data could encourage markets to price in a hike as soon as February. The Bank of Canada follows on Wednesday, with the Swiss National Bank on Thursday with both expected to stay on hold. Canada saw a +16bps rise in 2yr yields on Friday after another strong labor market release with traders now suddenly, and fully, pricing in a hike by October next year. Meanwhile, the SNB are trying to avoid negative rates next year with rates now around zero.  

Elsewhere, UK monthly GDP for October will be released on Friday, alongside German industrial production today and trade figures on Tuesday. China inflation is released on Wednesday where our economists expect CPI inflation to rise by 0.5ppt to 0.7% YoY and PPI to improve by 0.2ppt to -1.9% YoY. Nordic inflation prints are also due midweek, with Denmark and Norway publishing November CPI reports. Also watch out for the BoJ Ueda who speaks in London tomorrow ahead of a fascinating BoJ meeting next Friday just as the market winds down for Xmas.  

Expanding further on the FOMC now, according to DB economists (we will have a full preview tomorrow), the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) should show only modest revisions. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are likely to be nudged higher, consistent with the October staff update, while inflation projections should be trimmed for this year and next. The unemployment path is expected to remain broadly unchanged. The dot plot should continue to point to one cut per year over the next two years, reinforcing the message that policy is approaching the neutral range (3.5–3.75%). The baseline remains that the Fed stays on hold through the first half of 2026, with risks skewed towards another cut in Q1 if labor market weakness persists. Under new leadership later in the year, they anticipate a September cut as disinflation resumes, taking the trough in the fed funds rate to around 3.3%.

While the Fed dominates, a handful of other releases could provide additional nuance. Tomorrow brings combined September–October JOLTS data, offering a backward-looking snapshot of hiring and quits trends. Recent figures have underscored a “low hiring/low firing” dynamic, with private hiring at multi-year lows and quits subdued. Wednesday’s Employment Cost Index for Q3 is forecast at DB to hold steady at +0.9%, keeping annual growth around 3.6%. Thursday rounds out the docket with September trade numbers (-$69.6bn expected vs. -$59.6bn prior) and initial jobless claims (225k vs. 191k), the latter likely to increase after holiday distortions.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday December 8

• Data: US November NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, China November trade balance, Japan November Economy Watchers survey, M2, M3, Germany October industrial production
• Central banks: ECB's Cipollone and Villeroy speak, BoE's Taylor and Lombardelli speak
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Tuesday December 9

• Data: US November NFIB small business optimism, September and October JOLTS report, Japan November machine tool orders, PPI, Germany October trade balance
• Central banks: RBA decision, ECB's Nagel speaks, BoJ’s Ueda speaks
• Earnings: thyssenkrupp
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Wednesday December 10

• Data: US Q3 employment cost index, November federal budget balance, China November CPI, PPI, Italy October industrial production, Sweden October GDP indicator, Denmark November CPI, Norway November CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC decision, ECB's Lagarde speaks
• Earnings: Oracle, Adobe, Synopsys
• Other: UK Chancellor Reeves appears before the Treasury Select Committee

Thursday December 11

• Data: US September trade balance, wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK November RICS house price balance, Italy Q3 unemployment rate, Canada September international merchandise trade, Australia November labour force survey
• Central banks: SNB decision, BoE’s Bailey speaks
• Earnings: Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday December 12

• Data: UK October monthly GDP, Japan October capacity utilisation, Germany October current account balance, Canada October building permits, wholesale sales ex petroleum, Q3 capacity utilisation rate
• Central banks: Fed's Paulson and Hammack speak, BoE inflation attitudes survey for November

* * * 

Finally, looking at the just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday and the employment cost index on Wednesday. The December FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, December 8 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, December 9 

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, November (consensus 98.3, last 98.2)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, October (GS 7,100k, consensus 7,150k, last 7,227k [August])

Wednesday, December 10 

• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q3 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q3 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted), which would leave the year-on-year rate unchanged at 3.6% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted). Our forecast reflects a sequentially slower pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings—but a slight rebound in ECI benefit growth after a weak increase in Q2.
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, December meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to lower the fed funds rate by 25bp to 3.5-3.75% at its December meeting, though the meeting will likely be contentious. We continue to expect two more 25bp cuts to 3-3.25% in 2026. In the dot plot, we expect five participants to register soft dissents by submitting 3.875% as the appropriate 2025 funds rate. We also expect the median projection to show one rate cut in 2026 to 3.375% and one more in 2027 to 3.125%, as it did in September, though it is a close call. In the economic projections, we expect the median GDP growth forecast to rise for 2025 (+0.4pp to 2%) and 2026 (+0.2pp to 2%), and the median core inflation forecast to decline by 0.1pp to 3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026, above our forecast of 2.2% for 2026.

Thursday, December 11 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 6 (GS 230k, consensus 220k, last 191k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 29 (consensus 1,945k, last 1,939k)
• 08:30 AM Trade balance, September (GS -$69.0bn, consensus -$63.2bn, last -$59.6bn): We estimate that trade deficit widened by $9.4bn to $69.0bn, driven mainly by an increase in gold imports. 

Friday, December 12 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 08:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak on the economic outlook at the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce in Wilmington. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On November 20th, President Paulson said that “each rate cut raises the bar for the next cut, [and] that’s because each rate cut brings us closer to the level where policy flips from restraining activity a bit to the place where it is providing a boost.”
• 08:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series. Q&A is expected. On November 20th, President Hammack said that she thinks “we need to continue to keep policy somewhat restrictive to bring inflation back to target.”
• 10:35 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks (FOMC voter): Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Chicago Fed Annual Economic Outlook Symposium. On November 20th, President Goolsbee said that he is “a little uneasy about front-loading too many rate cuts and just assuming that the inflation we have seen is going to be transitory.”

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 09:55

Trump Expected To Roll Out $12 Billion Farm Aid Program Today

The Trump administration on Monday is planning to roll out a $12 billion farm aid package to help producers hurt by the trade war, which will include up to $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers under the Department of Agriculture's newly designed Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The rest of the aid will go to crops not covered by the FBA, Bloomberg reports, citing an anonymous White House official. 

Soybeans grow in a field in front of a barn sporting a large Trump sign in rural Ashland, Neb. (Nati Harnik / Associated Press)

The aid comes as farmers express rising frustration over the slow pace of Chinese purchases, which Beijing instituted earlier this year in retaliation for Trump's tariffs. 

The package is expected to be announced around 2pm in Washington during an event featuring farmers who produce cotton, sorghum, soybean, rice, cattle, wheat and potato. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins will also be in attendance, the official said.

Funds for the new program have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act, and will be distributed by the Farm Service Agency, according to the report. 

The farm aid is similar to what Trump offered during his first term, when the US and China were in a similar trade war, and answers concerns voiced by Republican lawmakers ahead of next year's midterm elections.

Farmers have been dying on the vine as export markets for several crops have dried up - particularly soybeans - which saw purchases from China evaporate until a late October agreement between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, soybean producers have seen purchases gradually ramp up. Last month China made its biggest daily purchase of American soybeans in two years, with the total volume sold to the Asian nation amounting to 2.25 million tons - far less than what American farmers need to sell out of the 12 million tons of US soybeans that the Trump admin said China would purchase by the end of February which Bessent said last week that China is still on track to meet. 

.

On Saturday, US Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer said that China has been complying with the terms of the trade agreement, and that Beijing is about "a third" of the way through its soybean purchase commitments for this growing season. 

In 2018 and 2019 Trump distributed $28 billion to farmers to make up for lost business over the tariff dispute at the time, however China began to shift purchases of soybeans to Brazil - which has had lasting consequences until now, when Beijing recently banned Brazilian soybean shipments. Trump touted the move as proof that they had won Beijing back over. 

Meanwhile, despite a runup in soybean futures over the past month over a resolution with China, crop prices are still close to 2020 lows, reducing what farmers take in while the cost of fertilizers is still climbing. 

The Trump admin first announced farm aid in March, when the USDA announced a plan to pay as much as $10 billion under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program authorized by Congress in late 2024, designed to help mitigate the impact of increased costs and falling commodity prices.

So far over $9 billion has been paid out as of Nov. 23. The bulk of the funds have gone to corn and soybean farmers. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 09:40

Tesla Shares Slip After Morgan Stanley Downgrades To Equal-Weight From Overweight

Tesla shares slipped about 1.5% in early trading on Monday after Morgan Stanley cut its rating on the stock to Equal-weight from Overweight, even as the firm raised its price target to $425 from $410. With Tesla changing hands around $455 into the move, the new target implies modest downside and a more balanced risk-reward profile in the eyes of the bank’s analysts.

The downgrade also coincides with a notable change in coverage leadership. Longtime Tesla watcher Adam Jonas is no longer the primary analyst on the name. Coverage is now being assumed by a broader team led by Andrew S. Percoco. 

Percoco and his colleagues frame Tesla as a clear global leader in electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy and real-world artificial intelligence, but argue that the stock price has caught up with their base-case outlook for now. They assume coverage at Equal-weight with a $425 price target, which the team says implies roughly 6% downside from the prior close. Their stance is that Tesla is “deserving of a premium valuation” given its leadership position, but that “high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation.” In practical terms, that means they expect a choppy trading environment over the next 12 months as they see downside risk to near-term estimates while many non-auto AI and robotics catalysts already appear reflected in the shares.

A central part of the new report is a complete refresh of Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts valuation framework for Tesla. Percoco’s team breaks the company into five pillars: the core auto business, the energy segment,

Network Services (including Full Self Driving), the Tesla Mobility robotaxi platform, and the Optimus humanoid robot business. In the new model, they assign roughly $55 per share of value to autos, $40 to energy, $145 to Network Services, $125 to robotaxis and $60 to humanoids, adding up to the $425 target. The mix reflects a deliberate shift: less credit for the auto and energy segments, and more emphasis on high-margin, software-driven and AI-enabled businesses.

On autos, the analysts still describe Tesla’s vehicle business as the financial engine that funds expansion into autonomy and robotics, but they have turned more cautious on the global EV backdrop. Their 2026 auto volume forecast now sits materially below the Street, and they have reduced long-term delivery assumptions through 2040 in light of a slower U.S. adoption curve and intensifying competition globally, particularly from Chinese manufacturers.

That feeds into a lower standalone valuation for the auto business than in Jonas’s prior framework, even though Tesla is still expected to maintain a meaningful share of the global EV market and improve margins over time.

By contrast, the team leans heavily into Network Services and Full Self Driving as key value drivers. They characterize FSD as the “crown jewel” of Tesla’s auto franchise and call its leading-edge personal autonomy platform “a real game changer,” arguing it will remain a significant competitive advantage over both EV and legacy peers as the system moves toward more hands-off, eyes-off functionality. In their long-term view, an expanding installed base of Teslas and rising penetration of FSD, charging, maintenance and content subscriptions create a high-margin, recurring revenue stream that justifies the $145 per share valuation they place on Network Services.

The robotaxi business, branded as Tesla Mobility in the report, is another important piece of Percoco’s long-term story. Working with Morgan Stanley’s global autos and internet teams, they have built a bottom-up, city-level model of autonomous ride-hailing in the U.S. The note argues that Tesla’s camera-only, vertically integrated approach can drive a structurally lower cost per mile than sensor-heavy peers, though it also acknowledges regulatory and weather-related hurdles to scaling the service. In the base case, the analysts assume a steadily growing robotaxi fleet and falling per-mile costs that eventually undercut traditional rideshare economics, supporting the $125 per share value they attach to this segment.

The energy business remains a structural growth driver in the model as well, supported by rising electricity demand from AI data centers and electrification, plus accelerating deployment of battery storage. However, Percoco and his team have dialed back their earlier assumptions on storage growth and terminal margins to align more closely with Morgan Stanley’s global clean-tech forecasts. Tesla is still credited with a leadership position in energy storage systems and a meaningful slice of future global deployments, but the resulting valuation contribution is more conservative at roughly $40 per share.

Perhaps the most speculative, but also most eye-catching, part of the note is the explicit valuation assigned to humanoid robots via Tesla’s Optimus program. The analysts draw on Morgan Stanley’s global humanoid research, which envisions a multi-trillion-dollar annual market for humanoid robotics by mid-century. In that context, they argue that Tesla’s advantages in AI training data, custom silicon, manufacturing scale and energy give it a credible shot at becoming a major player. Their model envisions Optimus scaling over decades to a large installed base of commercial and household robots with attractive margins. Even so, they haircut their own discounted cash flow output by 50% to reflect the early-stage uncertainty, landing at $60 per share of value inside the overall price target.

All of these pieces roll into a wide risk-reward range that Percoco and his colleagues lay out in the report. Their bull case, which assumes stronger EV growth, higher attach rates and margins in software and services, faster robotaxi scaling and a more favorable outcome for humanoids, reaches $860 per share. Their bear case, which bakes in tougher competition, more muted EV and energy growth, slower autonomy adoption and zero value for Optimus, falls to $145.

Against that backdrop, with the stock already discounting much of the AI and robotics upside and short-term earnings risk skewed to the downside, the new team is content to move Tesla to Equal-weight and “wait for a better entry.”

For investors, the immediate takeaway is that Morgan Stanley still views Tesla as a central player in what the firm has elsewhere dubbed the “Muskonomy” of interconnected AI and automation businesses, but is no longer willing to recommend the shares as a clear buy at current levels.

The downgrade from Overweight to Equal-weight, the shift to a team led by Andrew S. Percoco, and the sharper distinction between near-term headwinds and long-term AI optionality together help explain why the stock is trading lower in response this morning, even with the firm’s official price target moving higher.

Premium members can access the full 75 page note in the usual place. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 09:25

"The Days Of Censoring Americans Online Are Over": Senior US Diplomats Slam EU's "Attack" On American Tech Platform X

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and several other senior U.S. officials have criticized the internet policies of the European Union (EU), likening them to censorship, after the governing bloc last week levied Elon Musk’s social media platform X with a $140 million fine for breaching its online content rules.

On Dec. 5, EU tech regulators fined X 120 million euros (about $140 million) following a two-year investigation under the Digital Services Act, concluding that the social platform had breached multiple transparency obligations, including the “deceptive design of its ‘blue checkmark,' the lack of transparency of its advertising repository, and the failure to provide access to public data for researchers.”

The EU accused X of converting its verified badges into a paid feature without sufficient identity checks, arguing that this deceived users into believing the accounts were authentic and exposed them to fraud, manipulation, and impersonation.

This meant the platform had failed to meet the Digital Services Act’s accessibility and detail standards, leaving out key information that prevented efforts to track coordinated disinformation, illicit activities, and election interference, according to the EU.

Even before the EU’s fine was announced, U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggested it amounted to punishing X for “not engaging in censorship.”

Rumors swirling that the EU commission will fine X hundreds of millions of dollars for not engaging in censorship. The EU should be supporting free speech not attacking American companies over garbage.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) December 4, 2025

On Dec. 5, Rubio wrote in a post on X that the fine was not “just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments.”

“The days of censoring Americans online are over,” Rubio wrote.

The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments.

The days of censoring Americans online are over.

— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) December 5, 2025

On Dec. 6, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said the EU’s policies are threatening the trans-Atlantic partnership.

“The nations of Europe cannot look to the US for their own security at the same time they affirmatively undermine the security of the US itself through the (unelected, undemocratic, and unrepresentative) EU. This fine is just the tip of the iceberg,” he wrote on X.

In a follow-up post, Landau said his recent trip to Brussels for NATO’s ministerial meeting left him feeling that there is a “glaring inconsistency between [the United States’] relations with NATO and the EU.”

“When these countries wear their NATO hats, they insist that Transatlantic cooperation is the cornerstone of our mutual security,” he said.

“But when these countries wear their EU hats, they pursue all sorts of agendas that are often utterly adverse to US interests and security—including censorship. ... This inconsistency cannot continue.”

My recent trip to Brussels for the @NATO Ministerial meeting left me with one overriding impression: the US has long failed to address the glaring inconsistency between its relations with NATO and the EU. These are almost all the same countries in both organizations. When these…

— Christopher Landau (@DeputySecState) December 6, 2025

U.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder called the EU’s fine on X “regulatory overreach targeting American innovation.”

The EU also charged Meta and TikTok with breaching its Digital Services Act transparency guidelines in October and then accused Temu, a Chinese online marketplace, of violating guidelines intended to prevent sales of illegal products.

TikTok, however, was able to avoid the fines levied on X by making concessions to the EU.

Meta’s Facebook and Instagram were accused of failing to offer a user-friendly and easily accessible procedure for reporting illegal content, including child sexual abuse material and terrorist content, which the parent company denied.

Then on Dec. 4, the European Commission said it had opened an antitrust investigation into Meta to determine whether the company’s policy blocking third-party artificial intelligence tools on WhatsApp violates the EU’s competition regulations.

Helmut Brandstätter, a member of the European Parliament, shot back at Vance’s post condemning the EU’s decision to fine X.

“There is No censorship in Europe, and everybody has to follow our rules,” he wrote on X on Dec. 5.

“[U.S. President Donald Trump] fights the free press, suing newspapers and TV stations. So leave us alone.”

In response, Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers posted a video to X in which she referenced the German woman who was recently given a harsher jail sentence than a convicted rapist after calling the latter a “disgraceful rapist pig.”

The woman was convicted of insults and criminal threats under German law and sentenced to a weekend in jail, while the rapist received a suspended sentence without prison time because of his age.

“So which is it, Mr. Bronstetter, is there no censorship in Europe? Or do we all have to follow your rules?” Rogers said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 09:10

Trump Readies "One-Rule" Executive Order Aimed At Centralizing AI Regulation

President Trump continues to argue that a single, national set of rules, otherwise known as a "One Rulebook," governing the artificial intelligence industry is essential, rather than a patchwork of state-by-state regulations that would slow development amid a superpower race with China. This comes as Trump's national strategy to build out data centers, revitalize the industrial base, restart rare-earth mining and refining operations, and upgrade power grids becomes vital to maintaining America's tech dominance in the years ahead.

"There must be only One Rulebook if we are going to continue to lead in AI," Trump wrote on Truth Social just moments ago.

He continued, "We are beating ALL COUNTRIES at this point in the race, but that won't last long if we are going to have 50 States, many of them bad actors, involved in RULES and the APPROVAL PROCESS. THERE CAN BE NO DOUBT ABOUT THIS! AI WILL BE DESTROYED IN ITS INFANCY!"

Trump noted that the "One Rule Executive Order will be signed this week," adding, "You can't expect a company to get 50 Approvals every time they want to do something. THAT WILL NEVER WORK!"

The Trump administration believes that allowing 50 different states to create their own AI rules and approval processes would paralyze development, slow innovation, and ultimately be detrimental to the nation.

Last month, Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Some States are even trying to embed DEI ideology into AI models, producing 'Woke AI' (Remember Black George Washington?). We MUST have one Federal Standard instead of a patchwork of 50 State Regulatory Regimes."

"If we don't, then China will easily catch us in the AI race. Put it in the NDAA, or pass a separate Bill, and nobody will ever be able to compete with America," the president warned.

Last Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reiterated Trump's points on the need for a national set of rules, noting that state-by-state AI regulation would harm the industry's growth.

“State-by-state AI regulation would drag this industry into a halt and it would create a national security concern, as we need to make sure that the United States advances AI technology as quickly as possible,” Huang said.

Given the sheer incompetence of Democrats who have run blue states into the ground, exemplified most recently by the massive welfare fraud by Somalis under Tim Walz's watch, the Trump administration believes a blanket federal approach to ensuring AI development is the best plan of action to secure the nation's technological advantage over the rest of the world... and the man at the center of AI - Jensen Huang - agrees vehemently: "A federal AI regulation is the wisest."

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 09:00

Confluent Shares Erupt After Report Of $11 Billion IBM Takeover Bid

Confluent shares skyrocketed in premarket trading in New York after a Wall Street Journal report revealed that IBM is in talks to buy the data infrastructure company for $11 billion. The deal could be announced as soon as today.

*IBM acquiring Confluent in $11 billion all-cash deal
*IBM: Confluent Deal Represents Enterprise Value of $11 Billion

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 8, 2025

Confluent is a data-infrastructure software company built around Apache Kafka, an open-source technology created at LinkedIn and later spun out. It offers a streaming data platform that lets companies move and process data in real time rather than in slow batches, which is vital for AI and machine-learning pipelines.

A successful deal would be IBM's largest in years, furthering its pivot toward AI and cloud after the $6.4 billion HashiCorp purchase last year. IBM has posted increasing consulting revenue, slashed thousands of jobs to restructure its workforce, and ramped up quantum computing development.

Shares of Confluent surged 28% in premarket trading. The stock is down 17% on the year as of Friday's close and has been range-bound since the second half of 2022.

The potential deal shows how IBM is continuing to pivot from its slow-growing legacy business and reshape itself around AI and quantum computing. It wants to be viewed as a serious player in AI infrastructure rather than just another legacy enterprise software vendor.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 08:50

Futures Rise For 10th Day In Past 11 With Fed Rate Cut Looming

With just 17 trading sessions left in 2025, stock futures edge higher again and are on pace for 10 gains in the past 11 days. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% as of 5:32 a.m. in New York, with Nasdaq 100 contracts +0.3%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly unchanged except for a -1.3% decline in TSLA on a downgrade from Morgan Stanley. Most Asian markets clock firm start to the week, while European markets are mixed. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher and the USD is flat after reversing an earlier drop. Commodities are mixed: oil and most base metals are down small, while precious metals are higher. Over the weekend, there were several corporate headlines: (i) MSFT is considering shift custom chip business to Broadcom from Marvell (The Information). (ii) Trump warned the Netflix-Warner deal may post antitrust problem (BBG); (iii) IBM close to buy Confluent. A Fed cut on Wednesday looks like a done deal, but the trajectory after that is less clear. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka warned that the recent stock rally could stall after the decision. The Fed is also expected to restart "Reserve Management Purchases" ($45BN per month), which according to BofA's Mark Cabana is not priced in; we also get earnings from Oracle and Broadcom, which may provide an end-of-year test for the AI narrative. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed, with Tesla an outlier to the downside following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley from OW to EW (Amazon +0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet -0.1%, Microsoft +0.07%, Meta -0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla -1.3%)

• Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) falls 3% after saying that the FDA has not yet issued a regulatory decision on the supplemental new drug application for mitapivat in thalassemia.
• Carvana (CVNA) rises 9%, CRH (CRH) gains 7% and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) climbs 1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said they will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens Dec. 22.
• Confluent (CFLT) is up 28% after the the Wall Street Journal reported International Business Machines Corp. is in advanced negotiations to acquire the data infrastructure firm.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) drops 5% after announcing a $2 billion convertible senior notes offering.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) falls 4% after Mizuho Securities analyst Maheep Mandloi cut the recommendation to underperform, saying data-center opportunities are still early-stage.
• ITT (ITT) slips 3% after plans to sell 7 million shares to help fund a portion of its SPX Flow deal.
• Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) rises 29% after the drug developer announced positive results from a Phase 1b clinical trial of KT-621.
• Tesla (TSLA) shares fall 1.4% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley downgrades the electric-car maker to equal-weight from overweight, saying non-auto catalysts priced into the stock.

In corporate news, Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. IBM is in advanced negotiations to acquire data infrastructure firm Confluent for around $11 billion, the WSJ reported. Robinhood is set to enter the Indonesian market after signing deals to acquire two local brokerages. Unilever spinoff The Magnum Ice Cream Co. will start trading in New York today as part of a three-location listing.

US stocks have rebounded in recent weeks after some Fed officials - and especially vice chair John Williams - signaled they intend to cut rates for a third straight time on Wednesday. Still, the advance has been jittery as uncertainty over the pace of easing in 2026 and wariness about the sustainability of an AI-driven rally temper sentiment.

Investors are now looking ahead to 2026. Over three-quarters of asset managers polled in an informal Bloomberg survey are positioning for a risk-on environment through 2026. Among strategists, Oppenheimer AM’s John Stoltzfus is calling for an 18% rally in the S&P 500 next year, becoming the most optimistic forecaster among those tracked by Bloomberg for a third year running. Still, there are some nuances. Investors are rotating out of the tech behemoths that drove virtually all of this year’s rally in the S&P 500 and are snapping up shares of risky small companies and old-economy transportation names. Yardeni Research now recommends effectively going underweight the Mag 7 versus the rest of the S&P 500, expecting a shift in earnings growth ahead.

For stocks, interviews with 39 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe showed that a vast majority of allocators were still positioning for a risk-on environment through next year. The thrust of the bet is that resilient global growth, further developments in artificial intelligence, accommodative policy and fiscal stimulus will deliver outsize returns.  

Fabien Benchetrit, head of target allocation for France and southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said he remains bullish on 2026 but isn’t planning to increase his stock exposure before year-end. “Like other market participants, we’ve had a good year and it doesn’t make much sense to do it when liquidity typically dries up in the last two weeks of December,” he said. “In terms of AI, 2025 was all about capex, but 2026 will be about these investments delivering revenues, profits and productivity gains.”

Unease that inflation remains too high has also caused divisions among Fed officials, in a rift that’s been exacerbated by the lack of fresh data during the shutdown. After this week’s likely cut, money markets are leaning toward two more moves by the end of 2026, down from three signaled barely a week ago.

While a resilient economy, seasonal support and catch-up positioning are supporting stocks, key risks still loom for investors, said Daniel Murray, deputy chief investment officer and global head of research at EFG Asset Management. Those include “that the Fed is less dovish than investors currently assume,” Murray said, along with “a delayed tariff impact that sees inflation higher for longer and cracks starting to widen in the labor market.”

“The tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be critical,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid. “We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility.”

The Stoxx 600 is little changed as gains in industrial and insurance shares are offset by losses in consumer products and chemicals. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Kloeckner shares climb as much as 27% in Frankfurt, the most since 2008, after the firm said Worthington Steel was conducting due diligence with a view to a potential takeover of the German metals company.
• Galderma shares rise as much as 4.5%, touching a record high, after L’Oreal announced plans to double its stake in the Swiss dermatology firm to 20%.
• FlatexDEGIRO shares rise as much as 5.9% after Berenberg raised its price target on the online brokerage firm.
• AUTO1 shares rally as much as 5.4% after Jefferies initiated coverage of the digital platform for buying and selling used cars with a buy recommendation.
• Absa shares rise as much as 4.8% in Johannesburg, to their highest intraday level on record after the bank said it expects mid-single digit revenue growth in 2025, with stronger growth in non-interest income than net interest income.
• GEA Group shares sink as much as 5%, to their lowest level since April, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the equipment supplier for the food processing industry to underweight.
• Ferrari shares fall as much as 3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the Italian luxury car maker to equal-weight on account of its decision to strictly limit volume growth until 2030.
• Embracer falls as much as 33% as shares in the Swedish game company traded without rights to the upcoming spinoff of its Coffee Stain Group subsidiary.
• Schott Pharma shares drop as much as 6.8% to the lowest level on record after analysts at Barclays and Deutsche Bank downgraded their ratings on the stock, saying the 2026 fiscal year will be a “transition year” for the German pharma packaging company.

Earlier in the session, Chinese indexes rally after local media reports leverage limit hike for brokerages, and the Politburo pledges more proactive macroeconomic policies. The ChiNext soars more than 3% and the CSI 300 gains about 1.2%. Topix, Taiex and Kospi are also in the green. Hang Seng slides almost 1%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. EUR/USD rose to session highs after ECB’s Schnabel said she is comfortable with investor bets that the next interest-rate move will be an increase. The yen eases back to around 155.50/USD. Offshore yuan stays marginally stronger after a strong trade report.

In rates, treasuries outperform their European counterparts but are still in the red. US 10-year borrowing costs climb 2 bps to 4.15%. Europe led declines in global bond markets after the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel became the first senior official to suggest with any certainty that European rates have reached a floor, and she is comfortable with investor bets that the next interest-rate move will be an increase. German 10-year yields rise 4 bps to 2.84%. Gilts also drop, pushing UK 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.52%. Japanese bond yields rose across the curve after data showed that the economy shrank in the three months through September, giving some justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package announced last month. The figures add an element of complexity to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision next week, but likely won’t derail it from its gradual hiking path. Aussie bonds remain heavy as 10-year yield hits a two-year high ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision. JGB futures are tightly rangebound following lackluster GDP report.

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 1% to near $59.50 a barrel. Brent crude futures pause around $63.90 and gold rises back above $4,210 an ounce. Spot gold adds $10 while Bitcoin rises 1.9% to around $92,000.

Today's economic calendar includes November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.2%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.15%
• VIX +0.8 points at 16.22
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1211.98
• euro little changed at $1.1652
• WTI crude -0.9% at $59.54/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump said Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery may pose antitrust concerns, warning that the combined entity’s market share “could be a problem.” He confirmed he met with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently. BBG
• Trump plans to unveil a $12 billion farm aid package today, including one-time payments for crop farmers hit by low prices amid slow Chinese purchases. Advisers are also weighing measures to curb soaring beef prices, including reopening the border to Mexican cattle. WSJ
• Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum directing the HHS to fast-track a comprehensive evaluation of the vaccine schedules from other countries around the world, and better align the US vaccine schedule.
• White House said it will establish food supply chain security task forces to protect competition.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will finish the year with 3% GDP growth.
• China’s trade surplus in goods this year topped $1 trillion for the first time, a milestone that underscores the dominance that the country has attained. For the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports increased 5.4% from the year-earlier period to $3.4 trillion, while the country’s imports declined 0.6% over that same stretch to $2.3 trillion. WSJ
• China's annual car sales dropped 8.5% in November in a second straight monthly decline, for their biggest fall in 10 months, data showed on Monday, amid a waning scramble to buy vehicles before government subsidies dwindle at year-end. RTRS
• Japan's real wages shrank for the 10th consecutive month in October, with an uptick in nominal pay falling short of taming relentless consumer inflation, government data showed on Monday.
• Thailand has launched air strikes on Cambodia after border clashes that killed on Thai soldier, marking the collapse of a Trump brokered peace deal between the south east Asian neighbors. FT
• Industrial production in Europe’s largest economy continued to accelerate in October, with the sector showing further signs of stabilization as it awaits large-scale government investment. October came in at +1.8% M/M (vs. the Street +0.3%). WSJ
• Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said he planned to present Republican leadership with his health care plan as soon as Sunday night, predicting that the divisive proposal to put money directly in Americans’ health savings accounts could clear the 60-vote threshold needed to pass in the Senate. Politico
• IBM  is in advanced talks to acquire data-infrastructure company Confluent (CFLT) for around $11 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. A deal could be announced as soon as today. WSJ
• Following an 11% drawdown this fall, Consumer Discretionary stocks have rebounded by 7% during the past two weeks. The combination of hawkish Fed commentary, weak labor market data, declining consumer sentiment, and downbeat corporate commentary contributed to a sell-off in Consumer Discretionary stocks between early September and mid-November. During the past two weeks, however, consumer stocks have rebounded, with the equal-weight S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 by 2%: Goldman

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said we'll work it out, when asked if he would restart trade talks with Canada, while it was separately reported that the Canadian PM’s office said PM Carney agreed with US President Trump and Mexican President Sheinbaum to keep working together on the trade deal.
• USTR said China’s trade commitments are going in the right direction and that they are seen to be in compliance so far.
• French President Macron warned that the EU could hit China with tariffs if nothing is done to reduce its widening trade deficit with the EU, according to Les Echos.
• EU is to expand the carbon border tax to garden tools and washing machines, as it seeks to close loopholes in the law to prevent carbon-intensive imports, according to FT.
• US Embassy in India said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker will visit New Delhi and Bengaluru, India, on December 7th-11th.
• German Foreign Minister said a lot of work is still needed to persuade China to issue general export licenses for rare earths.
• China's Vice Commerce Minister said he welcomes EU automakers to continue to invest in China. Urges Germany and the EU auto association to push the EU Commission to resolve the EV anti-subsidy case. On Nexperia, he said the root cause of chaos in the global semiconductor supply chains lies in the Netherlands.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following a lack of major macro drivers over the weekend and with markets tentative ahead of this week's risk events, while participants also digested data, including the latest Chinese trade figures. ASX 200 was subdued amid somewhat mixed trade data from Australia's largest trading partner and as the RBA kick-started its 2-day policy meeting. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following a slew of mixed data from Japan, including firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and disappointing revisions to Q3 GDP, while sentiment was also clouded by geopolitical tensions after Japan accused Chinese fighter jets of aiming military radar at Japan's Self-Defence Force jets. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underperforming as gains in tech were overshadowed by losses in the big banks, while participants also digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed.

Top Asian News

• China's Politburo held a meeting on the economy and reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, with fiscal policy being more proactive, while it stated that the economic operation is generally stable and it will implement more active macro policies. Furthermore, it will continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, as well as stabilise employment, markets, and enterprises' expectations.
• Hong Kong held its legislative election on Sunday to elect 90 Legislative Council members from the 161 government-vetted candidates.
• Australia Treasurer Chalmers said they will not extend electricity rebates and that the mid-year review will not be a mini budget, while he added that the review will include savings.
• BoJ Governor Ueda to attend Japan's lower house budget committee from 05:35-06:05 GMT on Tuesday, according to a parliamentary source cited by Reuters.
• Chinese President Xi held a meeting with non-party members on the economy, according to Xinhua, and said China to stabilise jobs and markets. said 2025 has been unusual and will smoothly meet the main targets. To reinforce economic growth momentum. Economic goals will be achieved this year. To drive reasonable economic growth.
• China's auto industry body CPCA said China sold 2.24mln passenger cars in November, down 8.5% Y/Y; Tesla (TSLA) exported 13,555 China-made vehicles (prev. 35,491 in October).
• Indonesian Finance Minister said the nation is to impose a coal export tax near year between 1% and 5%.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) began the morning mixed, with a slight negative bias. Since the open, indices have held an upward bias with some climbing marginally into the green. European sectors are mostly lower. Industrials and Tech hold towards the top of the pile, whilst Real Estate and Media lags a touch. In terms of a key story, BNP Paribas (+0.7%) is to sell its stake in AG insurance to Ageas (+2.2%) for EUR 1.9bln.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer said former Deputy PM Angela Rayner will return to the cabinet after resigning in September, while he described her as “hugely talented”.
• Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
• ECB's Schnabel said she is 'comfortable' on bets that next move will be a hike. Later on, she also said she would be ready to succeed President Lagarde if she were asked to, via Bloomberg. She said the euro economy is on course to grow above potential despite the headwinds, and the economic outlook has brightened and the downside risks to growth have been reduced significantly, and uncertainty has come down quite quickly, which should further support future economic activity. The global economy and global trade have proven to be more resilient. On inflation, she said it’s in a good place. It’s currently around 2%, and we also project medium-term inflation to be around 2%. Volatile energy prices and related base effects may push headline inflation temporarily below our target. Services inflation has been much stickier than expected. The downward pressure on goods inflation due to a stronger euro, lower energy prices and potential trade diversion from China has been weaker than expected. On policy, she said interest rates are in a good place. Rather comfortable with those expectations of the next move being a rate hike. A first rate hike in June 2026 remains very uncertain.
• ECB's Rehn said the ECB is concerned about central bank independence in the US, via Econostream. Adds that Fed independence is an important issue for "all of us globally". On an insurance cut, said "we are not in the insurance business, not in December, March or June". Inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target. German spending to have a "formidable positive impact" on Germany and the Euro area.
• ECB’s Rehn said they must be aware of upside and downside inflation risks, while he added that inflation risk is slightly tilted to the downside in the medium-term. Furthermore, he said they should not impose unnecessary bars or floors on policy, and that the position on interest rates is not fixed.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a change in the ECB’s approach to monetary policy to boost the single market and protect it from the risks of a financial crisis, while he commented that reasserting the value of the European internal market means it can't let inflation be its sole objective, but also growth and employment.
• European Commission may announce a package to support the auto industry on December 16th, according to industry sources.
• German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron are set to discuss the fate of the Franco-German fighter jet project FCAS in the week of December 15th, according to an industry source.
• Germany's auto industry body VDA said it expects 2026 registrations to rise 2% to 2.9mln. Electric car sales in Germany to jump 17% to 979k in 2026. Expects the nation to remain the world's second-largest EV producer in 2026.
• French Socialist Party (PS) leader Faure said the party will vote for the French budget's social security programme.

FX

• DXY has now returned to flat territory after being dragged lower, but EUR strength as ECB hawk Schnabel said she is 'comfortable' on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon, according to Bloomberg. Little notable reaction was seen in ECB marking pricing throughout 2026, which remains unchanged for rates throughout the horizon, although the EUR strengthened and EZ yields rose.
• The Single Currency was also supported by surprisingly upbeat German Industrial Output data. EUR/USD hit a 1.1672 peak, matching Friday's high, before waning back towards 1.1650 levels. Subsequently, DXY fell to a 98.79 trough before trimming losses back towards near-99.00.
• GBP is subdued by the EUR/GBP cross, which briefly eclipsed its 50 DMA (0.8751) from a 0.8726 low on the back of the aforementioned ECB commentary and data. GBP/USD meanwhile closed around its 200 DMA on Friday and traded below the level (1.3331) throughout most of today's session. In terms of weekend UK newsflow, Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times.
• Other G10s are largely flat with Antipodeans mixed following the Chinese Trade Balance data, which showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports but Imports disappointed. Thus, AUD is subdued ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow, whilst NZD is among the better performers as AUD/NZD falls back after meeting resistance at 1.1500.

Fixed Income

• USTs are trading lower by a couple of ticks, having held a negative bias throughout the European morning. Nothing really much driving things for US paper this morning, and action appears to be following peers and in a continuation of Friday’s losses. Traders await the FOMC meeting mid-week, where a 25bps cut is widely expected – but likely to be subject to dissent from several board members. Back to price action, USTs are trading within a narrow 112-14 to 112-19 range, with today’s trough a tick below that made on Friday. Further pressure could see a retest of the trough made on 20th November at 112-10+.
• Bunds are also pressured, and to a larger magnitude than USTs (but less so than UK paper). The benchmark followed US paper overnight, and held a negative bias, before taking a leg lower on comments via Schnabel. The arch-hawk, speaking on Bloomberg, said that she is 'comfortable' on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon. In an immediate reaction, Bund Mar’26 fell from 127.98 to 127.80 over the course of around 5 minutes, before then extending to a trough of 127.74; from a yield perspective, the 10-year rose 3bps to 2.83%, levels not seen since March. Elsewhere, other ECB members have not impacted assets quite so much, with Rehn suggesting that “inflation expectations have remained quite well anchored around the 2% target.”, via Econostream. And finally on the data front, German Industrial Output M/M rose more than expected; ING’s Brzeski said “there are at least tentative signs of a bottoming out” in the German economy.
• Gilts underperform vs peers, and are currently down by around 40 ticks. Price action has been fairly muted this morning, gapped lower at the open and has resided at the bottom end of a 90.90 to 91.11 range. Pressure today in tandem with US/German paper, but with underperformance perhaps explained by ongoing domestic political updates. Focus has been on reports that Tony Blair is reportedly exploring alternative Labour leadership options amid frustration with UK PM Starmer’s direction, according to The Times. Moreover, perhaps some focus on political instability within the Labour Party as PM Starmer floats the return of Angela Rayner. Elsewhere, a KPMG/REC survey showed the UK labour market weakened further in November.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent oscillated in a tight USD 59.98-60.27/bbl and USD 63.63-63.94/bbl, respectively, throughout the APAC session. As the European session got underway, benchmarks failed to extend the highs of the APAC session and reversed lower to dip below USD 60/bbl and USD 63.50/bbl, despite a lack of crude-specific newsflow. Currently, benchmarks are extending on session lows as progress on a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remains in focus.
• Spot XAU edged higher throughout the APAC session amid a weaker dollar ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision, in which the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps at its meeting on Wednesday. XAU hit a low of USD 4191/oz as the APAC session commenced and gradually traded higher to a peak of USD 4219/oz as the European session got underway. Data over the weekend showed that the PBoC increased its gold reserves for a 13th consecutive month.
• 3M LME Copper extended to a new ATH of USD 11.75k/t as China's Politburo reiterated its stance that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, setting domestic growth as its top economic priority. This comes amid new demand, fuelled by AI infrastructure build and EVs, coming up against a tight global supply. China's exports also rose in November to 5.9%, compared to the expected 3.8% and the October figure of -1.1%.
• UAE Energy Minister said overall demand for energy will increase, fossil fuels will be "a percentage of it". Adds that natural gas is important and they intend to not only satisfy their local demand but also grow exports of their LNG. Agrees that natural gas demand is more than the projects they are seeing.
• Russia's Kremlin said India buys energy where it is profitable to; as far as Russia understands, India will "continue to do that".
• EU to delay proposals on carbon border tariff and proposals for automotive sector, including Co2 emissions to December 16th, according to a document seen by Reuters.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he will meet with US President Trump this month, while he said they believe there is a path to a workable peace with their Palestinian neighbours and that the sovereign power of security from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean will always remain in Israel’s hands. Furthermore, he said political annexation of the West Bank remains a subject of discussion, and the status quo in the West Bank will remain for the foreseeable future, as well as noted that they are close to the second phase of Trump’s Gaza plan.
• Palestinian PM Mustafa said Israel is stepping up the ‘creeping annexation’ of the West Bank and is intensifying efforts to make the West Bank unliveable and drive people out of the occupied territory, according to FT.
• Turkey’s Foreign Minister said Hamas is ready to hand over the Gaza administration to the Palestinian committee to advance the Gaza ceasefire deal. He also commented that Hamas disarmament in the first phase of the Gaza deal may not be a realistic and doable objective, while other steps are needed first.
• US, Israel and Qatar were reportedly holding a trilateral meeting in New York on Sunday to rebuild relations, according to Axios.
• A US official said the US is pushing Ukraine to agree "faster" to the peace plan, according to AFP.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine's President Zelensky says no accord so far on Ukraine's Donbas in US talks, via Bloomberg.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a substantive call with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while he stated they agreed on the next steps and format for talks with America, as well as noted that Ukraine is determined to continue working honestly with the US side in order to bring real peace. Zelensky separately commented that talks with US representatives on a peace plan were constructive but not easy.
• Ukrainian military conducted a strike on Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kucherivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and completed the capture of Rivne in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while they carried out a group strike on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure facilities, fuel and energy complexes, and long-range drone complexes.
• Russia and China held their third joint anti-missile drills on Russian territory.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s claims about the Japan Self-Defence Force’s dangerous flight are inaccurate, while he added it is very important to gain an understanding of other countries, including the US, regarding Japan's stance.
• Japan is reportedly frustrated at the Trump administration’s silence over the row with China and urged the US to give PM Takaichi more public support, according to FT.
• Australia’s Defence Minister Marles said they are deeply concerned about the actions of China following the air incident near Japan, while Marles discussed with Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi common serious concerns about the situation in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Furthermore, they discussed how to work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, while Marles also commented that they want the most productive relationship they can achieve with China.
• Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged heavy fire in a border region on Friday.
• Thai Army spokesman said their military launched airstrikes in the disputed border area with Cambodia.
• The Chinese Foreign Ministry said China believes both countries can win from cooperation on the new US defence strategy. Also said it stands ready to work with the US to improve ties and that China will firmly defend its sovereignty.
• Rapid Support Forces confirms control of Heglig oil field, the largest oil field in Sudan, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Russia’s Kremlin said it welcomed the removal of Russia from the list of US direct threats in the new national security strategy.

Geopolitics: Other

• Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said Chinese military planes directed radar at Japan's self-defence forces twice. It was separately reported that Japanese PM Takaichi said the incident involving Chinese fighter jets directing radar at Japanese planes is extremely regrettable, while she said they will respond calmly and resolutely to the development.

US Event Calendar

• November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am

DB's JIm Reid concludes the overnight wrap

All roads this week will point to Wednesday’s FOMC. Markets and DB expect the Fed to deliver a final and third 25bps rate cut for 2025, making it 6 cuts and 175bps in this easing cycle since September 2024. The decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with dissent anticipated from both hawkish and dovish members. Should four or more officials break ranks, it would mark the largest split since 1992. Beyond the headline move, the tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and the accompanying statement will be critical. We expect Powell to emphasise that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signalling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility ahead of likely softer labour market data due later in December.  

Beyond the Fed, the global calendar features several other central bank decisions and important data releases. Maybe tech earnings from Oracle (Wednesday) and Broadcom (Thursday) will be the most interesting, with the two names diverging considerably over the last couple of months. The former is down -34% over this period with the latter only -3% off its all-time-high seen a couple of weeks ago. In terms of central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow, where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, but with a hawkish tilt likely after recent inflation increases. The January 7th inflation data could encourage markets to price in a hike as soon as February. The Bank of Canada follows on Wednesday, with the Swiss National Bank on Thursday with both expected to stay on hold. Canada saw a +16bps rise in 2yr yields on Friday after another strong labour market release with traders now suddenly, and fully, pricing in a hike by October next year. Meanwhile, the SNB are trying to avoid negative rates next year with rates now around zero.  

Elsewhere, UK monthly GDP for October will be released on Friday, alongside German industrial production today and trade figures on Tuesday. China inflation is released on Wednesday where our economists expect CPI inflation to rise by 0.5ppt to 0.7% YoY and PPI to improve by 0.2ppt to -1.9% YoY. Nordic inflation prints are also due midweek, with Denmark and Norway publishing November CPI reports. Also watch out for the BoJ Ueda who speaks in London tomorrow ahead of a fascinating BoJ meeting next Friday just as the market winds down for Xmas.  

Expanding further on the FOMC now, according to our economist’s preview here, the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) should show only modest revisions. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are likely to be nudged higher, consistent with the October staff update, while inflation projections should be trimmed for this year and next. The unemployment path is expected to remain broadly unchanged. The dot plot should continue to point to one cut per year over the next two years, reinforcing the message that policy is approaching the neutral range (3.5–3.75%). Our economist’s baseline remains that the Fed stays on hold through the first half of 2026, with risks skewed towards another cut in Q1 if labour market weakness persists. Under new leadership later in the year, they anticipate a September cut as disinflation resumes, taking the trough in the fed funds rate to around 3.3%.

While the Fed dominates, a handful of other releases could provide additional nuance. Tomorrow brings combined September–October JOLTS data, offering a backward-looking snapshot of hiring and quits trends. Recent figures have underscored a “low hiring/low firing” dynamic, with private hiring at multi-year lows and quits subdued. Wednesday’s Employment Cost Index for Q3 is forecast at DB to hold steady at +0.9%, keeping annual growth around 3.6%. Thursday rounds out the docket with September trade numbers (-$69.6bn expected vs. -$59.6bn prior) and initial jobless claims (225k vs. 191k), the latter likely to increase after holiday distortions.

Asian equities are relatively quiet ahead of an important week. As I check my screens, the Nikkei is flat, impacted by Japan’s revised Q3 GDP data (details below). In other markets, Chinese stocks are diverging with the Hang Seng (-1.05%) lower, while the CSI (+1.05%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%) are higher, buoyed by better-than-expected China exports and a larger trade surplus compared to the previous month. Additionally, the KOSPI (+0.77%) is also rising. S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.25%) futures are both trading higher.

Returning to China, outbound shipments increased by +5.9% year-on-year in November, surpassing market expectations for +4.0% growth, marking a recovery from an unexpected -1.1% decline in October — the first contraction since March 2024. Imports rose by +1.9% last month, falling short of the anticipated +3.0% increase, as a prolonged housing downturn and rising job insecurity continued to hinder domestic consumption. This growth was an improvement compared to the 1% recorded in October. Elsewhere, in Japan, the revised annualised Q3 growth contraction was reported at -2.3%, compared to an earlier estimate of -1.8% and a market forecast of a -2.0% decline.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP decreased by -0.6%, which is steeper than the initial -0.4% contraction and exceeded the forecast of a -0.5% decline. Separately, real wages fell by -0.7% in October compared to the previous year, a slower decline than the revised -1.3% drop in September, but it extended a losing streak that began in January. Meanwhile, average nominal wages, or total cash earnings, rose by +2.6% year-on-year in October, marking a three-month high that followed a +2.1% increase in the previous month.

In bond markets, yields on the 10-year Australian government bonds are +2.2bps, reaching 4.71%, marking the highest level in two years in anticipation of the RBA meeting tomorrow. New Zealand's 10-year government bond are +8.8bps. 10 and 30yr JGBs are +2bps and +3bps higher respectively.

Recapping last week now and markets continued to grind higher, with the S&P 500 (+0.31%; +0.19% Friday), NASDAQ (+0.91%; +0.31% Friday), and the STOXX 600 (+0.41%; -0.01% Friday) all edging higher. The Mag-7 (+1.40%; +0.35% Friday) was boosted by strong performances from Tesla (+5.77%; +0.10% Friday) and Meta (+3.93%; +1.80% Friday), the latter on a Bloomberg report of budget cuts up to 30% for its metaverse division. In contrast, Microsoft fell -1.80% (+0.48% Friday) amid a press report of lowered AI sales quotas, which the company subsequently denied. The overall risk-tone saw the VIX volatility index (-0.55pts) fall to a two-month low of 15.41, and credit spreads tighten, with both US IG (-3bps) and HY (-5bps) rallying.

On the data front, we saw mixed US labour market releases, as the ADP report showed US private payrolls falling by 32k in November (vs. +10k expected) driven by highest job losses for small businesses since the pandemic (-120k) but weekly initial jobless claims (191k vs. 220k expected) painted a more robust picture, although Thanksgiving distortion likely dominated. In terms of survey releases, ISM services was slightly stronger than anticipated at 52.6 (vs. 52.0 expected), while its prices paid component fell to a seven-month low of 65.4 (vs. 68.0 expected). And on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (53.3 VS 51.0 expected) rebounded from its November slump as 5-10 year inflation expectations (3.2% vs 3.4% expected) fell to their lowest since January.

While a December Fed rate cut is more than 95% priced, the conflicting data drove a hawkish adjustment further out with the amount of cuts priced by end-26 declining by -9.3bps (-3.4bps Friday). This led to a rise in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield up +7.0bps to 3.56%, while the 10yr saw its biggest weekly sell-off since April (+12.1bps to 4.14%, +3.7bps Friday). Higher yields were also driven by developments in Japan, as comments from BoJ Governor Ueda led investors to anticipate a December rate hike. 10-year JGB yields rose by +13.5bps to a post-2008 high of 1.94% and 30-year yields by +1.5bps to 3.35%, its highest since the tenor was introduced in the late-1990s.

In Europe, 10yr bunds (+10.9bps), OATs (+11.4bps), and BTPs (+8.5bps) joined the global bond sell-off. That came as the Euro Area flash CPI for November was higher than expected at +2.2% (vs. +2.1% expected), while the composite PMI was revised up to 52.8, its highest in two-and-a-half years. The data supported modest equity gains, with the DAX +0.80% higher though the CAC 40 (-0.10%) was marginally lower. European credit spreads were also tighter for both IG (-6bps) and HY (-8bps).

In commodities, Brent crude saw a modest rally of +2.20% to $63.75/bbl, as no concrete plans for a ceasefire in Ukraine emerged. Cryptocurrencies experienced a volatile week. Bitcoin ended the week down -1.88%, but that included a -5.19% move on Monday and +5.97% on Tuesday. Gold was down -0.98% to $4,198/oz following an almost 5% rally the previous week.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 08:42

Hedge Fund CIO: "Trump's NSS Report Reads Like A Cold War Playbook. Deploy Capital Accordingly"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“What are America’s core foreign policy interests? What do we want in and from the world?” wrote the authors of the newly released ‘National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States of America.’ The NSS is the kind of report I like to read. Because sometimes, policy people tell you what they’re thinking. It’s helpful to take it at face value, incorporating it into your mental model. “We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States.” 

The new National Security Strategy of the United States:

"As Alexander Hamilton argued in our republic’s earliest days, the United States must never be dependent on any outside power for core components—from raw materials to parts to finished products— necessary to the nation’s… pic.twitter.com/XWsBL6hxjL

— Under Secretary of State Jacob S. Helberg (@UnderSecE) December 5, 2025

“We want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narco-terrorists,cartels,and other transnational criminal organizations,” continued the NSS. The USS Gerald R. Ford,off the coast of Venezuela,its oil,China watching. “We want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.” 

Source: Kayla Haas

“We want to halt and reverse the ongoing damage that foreign actors inflict on the American economy while keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open,preserving freedom of navigation in all crucial sea lanes,and maintaining secure and reliable supply chains and access to critical materials; We want to support our allies in preserving the freedom and security of Europe, while restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western Identity.” The report savaged Europe, its over-regulation, stagnant economy, immigration policies, free speech limits. 

“We want to prevent an adversarial power from dominating the Middle East,its oil and gas supplies,and the chokepoints through which they pass while avoiding the “forever wars” that bogged us down in that region at great cost; and we want to ensure that U.S. technology and U.S. standards—particularly in AI, biotech, and quantum computing—drive the world forward. These are the United States’ core, vital national interests. While we also have others, these are the interests we must focus on above all others, and that we ignore or neglect at our peril.” I expect US spending/support to start looking more Beijing-like in these areas. 

“The US must at the same time invest in research to preserve and advance our advantage in cutting-edge military and dual-use technology, with emphasis on the domains where U.S. advantages are strongest. These include undersea, space, and nuclear, as well as others that will decide the future of military power, such as AI, quantum computing, and autonomous systems, plus the energy necessary to fuel these domains.” The NSS report reads like a cold war playbook. Deploy capital and invest accordingly. 

“Additionally, the U.S. Government’s critical relationships with the American private sector help maintain surveillance of persistent threats to U.S. networks, including critical infrastructure. This in turn enables the U.S. Government’s ability to conduct real-time discovery, attribution, and response (i.e., network defense and offensive cyber operations) while protecting the competitiveness of the U.S. economy and bolstering the resilience of the American technology sector. Improving these capabilities will also require considerable deregulation to further improve our competitiveness, spur innovation, and increase access to America’s natural resources.” 

Anecdote

“After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country,” wrote the authors of the ‘National Security Strategy of the United States of America,’ released this week, signed by the President [here], who is not yet one full-year into his term. What follows speaks for itself.

“Yet the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests. Our elites badly miscalculated America’s willingness to shoulder forever global burdens to which the American people saw no connection to the national interest. They overestimated America’s ability to fund, simultaneously, a massive welfare regulatory-administrative state alongside a massive military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign aid complex. They placed hugely misguided and destructive bets on globalism and so-called “free trade” that hollowed out the very middle class and industrial base on which American economic and military preeminence depend. They allowed allies and partners to offload the cost of their defense onto the American people, and sometimes to suck us into conflicts and controversies central to their interests but peripheral or irrelevant to our own. And they lashed American policy to a network of international institutions, some of which are driven by outright anti-Americanism and many by a transnationalism that explicitly seeks to dissolve individual state sovereignty. In sum, not only did our elites pursue a fundamentally undesirable and impossible goal, in doing so they undermined the very means necessary to achieve that goal: the character of our nation upon which its power, wealth, and decency were built.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 06:30

Once Again, London Has The Most Pathetic Christmas Tree On The Planet

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

This weekend, London officially turned on it’s Christmas tree lights… Revealing once again the most tired looking pathetic tree and decorations on the planet.

The London Mayor Sadiq Khan was there, pretending to be impressed by a display into which less effort has gone than than your Dad’s half baked effort in the early 1980’s with 20 year old stuff scraped together from out of the attic.

The Christmas lights switch on and tree in Trafalgar Square, London. I was expecting better than last years diabolical cactus with bland white lighting. I guess expectations were too high. ? @MayorofLondon is a disgrace! We NEED @antmiddleton pic.twitter.com/tgaU97aoFR

— Real British Media (@RBMSteve) December 4, 2025

OK, we get it, it’s a “traditional” spruce from Norway. They’ve been sending one since 1947. But can they not send a better one?

Hope you guys over in the UK enjoy the tree this year ? This is the 79th time the City of Oslo sends a Christmas tree to London as a thank-you for the help during the Second World War. pic.twitter.com/XrmiiYvATl

— Joakim ????? (@joakial_) December 3, 2025

And get some better lights on it?

Of course the replies are closed. We all know why.

Khan also freaked out when he had to sing about Jesus.

Muslim Mayor of London Sadiq Khan nearly crashes out the moment he realizes he has to sing “Christ is born the newborn King” during a Christmas Carol event in Londonpic.twitter.com/zr6RI1ZbZN

— Jason Jones (@jonesville) December 6, 2025

Khan then actually had the gall to also post this video of a Christmas tree lighting ceremony in Covent Garden, which is PRIVATELY funded, and pass it off as his doing.

Nowhere compares to London at Christmas ?pic.twitter.com/YuNJI1TWPb

— Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan (@MayorofLondon) November 15, 2025

They HATE Christmas.

Just to confirm, the Mayor of London doesn't pay for the Covent Garden Christmas tree or lights featured in the video & they are arranged & entirely funded by local retailers & the estate landlord.

The tree Sadiq Khan is responsible for erecting & decorating looks like this: https://t.co/DKp1PPUmY4 pic.twitter.com/OeKGThd6v6

— Ike Ijeh (@ikeijeh) November 17, 2025

What an embarrassment.

Prague – that’s how you do it!!! pic.twitter.com/GHQsQnvWDS

— Dave (@vuvazela) December 6, 2025

Even non-christian nations have infinitely better displays.

Bangkok, Thailand… Not even a Christian nation ? pic.twitter.com/98gTN4PCW1

— Pongkung (@Pongkung_eiei) December 6, 2025

Eventually they won’t even bother.

Listen to the sad clapping in London. Is it not obvious to you that the UK Christmas tree was intentionally barely lit or decorated? Remember the lavish tree decorations of the recent past? This is deliberate. Slow but deliberate. https://t.co/JDqGFwU658

— Dr. Naomi Wolf. 8 NYT Bestsellers. DPhil, Poetry. (@naomirwolf) December 7, 2025

Memo. It is all coordinated. This, the sad London Christmas tree, the attacks on Christmas markets, the no Christmas lights in South Station Boston…all of it. https://t.co/FGKNASjRaY

— Dr. Naomi Wolf. 8 NYT Bestsellers. DPhil, Poetry. (@naomirwolf) December 7, 2025

The turning on of the Christmas tree lights in London, UK compared with Warsaw, Poland.

Do not tell me that London Mayor Sadiq Khan cares about the city or about Christmas… pic.twitter.com/OIRQ58AQoI

— ??? (@AntSpeaks) December 5, 2025

2025 Christmas tree comparison:
1) Sadiq Kahn's London tree
2) Wrowclaw's tree (Poland)

Which way western man? pic.twitter.com/by25KYhT0V

— Samson (@SH_lotuseater) December 6, 2025

Dear Londoners,

I present London’s new £149.99 C’mas Tree.

Merry Christmas

From – Your Mayor

Sadiq Kahn

Ps. I hate you all pic.twitter.com/hrInyhvQz0

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) December 5, 2025

??New York’s Rockefeller Center Christmas tree vs London’s Trafalgar Square tree. ?? pic.twitter.com/3369DrhjNp

— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) December 5, 2025

Wait for it… Christmas tree in Islamic London…pic.twitter.com/kY58a9pxxf

— Pippa B ????????? ? ?? ?? (@pippaisright) December 6, 2025

Not a fan of Sadiq but I have to fact check: the Trafalgar Square Christmas tree is an annual gift from Norway to London as a token of gratitude for Britain's support during World War II. That's why it just looks like a pine tree with lights on it, it doesn't look super elaborate… pic.twitter.com/LliUz2J4tn

— xpfmnbvc????????? (@gdlhagg) December 6, 2025

love every year when people point out that the london christmas tree looks terrible and then get quote tweeted like 'wow op clearly does not know that we have had terrible tree for 80 years on purpose and in fact it is culturally vital that our trees remain very bad forever'

— Adnan (@aouadnan) December 7, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 05:00

US Issues NATO's European Members New Self-Defense Deadline

European members of NATO have been warned by Washington that they must assume greater responsibility for the alliance's intelligence operations and missile production - which will require significantly more defense spending by 2027, Reuters has reported.

Reuters in its exclusive Friday report said that the United States "wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week, a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic."

"The message, recounted by five sources familiar with the discussion, including a U.S. official, was conveyed at a meeting in Washington this week of Pentagon staff overseeing NATO policy and several European delegations," the report continued.

The directive was coupled with a warning behind the scenes, reportedly involving Pentagon officials cautioning representatives from several European nations that the US may scale back its role in certain NATO defense efforts if this target and deadline is not met.

US Army/NATO file image

It was noted in the report that some European officials consider the 2027 goal unrealistic, saying that rapidly substituting American military support would demand far greater investment than current plans and NATO member approved defense budgets allow.

This generally reflects the Trump administration's long verbalized dissatisfaction with with Europe's progress on shouldering more of NATO's collective defense burden. 

But the Reuters report also underscored that European officials were not offered tangible metrics whereby failure or success would be assessed:

Conventional defense capabilities include non-nuclear assets from troops to weapons and the officials did not explain how the U.S. would measure Europe's progress toward shouldering most of the burden.

It was also not clear if the 2027 deadline represented the Trump administration position or only the views of some Pentagon officials. There are significant disagreements in Washington over the military role the U.S. should play in Europe.

One NATO official was cited as saying "Allies have recognized the need to invest more in defense and shift the burden on conventional defense" from the US to Europe.

As we described previously the Trump administration's new National Security Strategy really hits out hard at Europe, stating saying "it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies" to the United States.

The document further highlights that this current reality of European weakness could have certain negative implications for potential for heightened Western escalation with Russia:

"Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states," the document reads.

Most analysts see the language in the document as opening the door for greater Washington meddling in European affairs.

Source: Visual Capitalist

"Washington is no longer pretending it won’t meddle in Europe’s internal affairs" Pawel Zerka, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, observed.

"It now frames such interference as an act of benevolence (‘we want Europe to remain European’) and a matter of US strategic necessity. The priority? ‘Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations'," he concludes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/08/2025 - 04:15