People Are Seeing More Fireballs; Astronomers Can't Explain It...

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Just as it faces an annual hurricane season and tornado season, North America is also experiencing an annual “fireball season,” according to NASA.

“From February through April, the appearance rate of these very bright meteors can increase by as much as 10 percent to 30 percent, especially around the weeks of the March equinox,” NASA explained in a statement in late March.

”Exactly why is not known. Some astronomers think the Earth passes through more large debris at this time of year, causing an uptick in fireball sightings.”

But the relatively regular peak season appears to have been unusually active this year.

Fireball videos recorded worldwide between January and April 2026. The American Meteor Society said 41 large fireball events were reported in the first three months of 2026—nearly double the average number of reported events for that time period from the previous five years. Courtesy of American Meteor Society

The American Meteor Society, which has gathered professional and amateur meteor reports since 1911, said 41 large fireball events—observed by more than 50 people—were reported in the first three months of 2026. That’s nearly double the average number of reported events for that time period from the previous five years.

Mike Hankey, operations manager at the American Meteor Society, told The Epoch Times that this is specifically an increase in “sporadic” meteors that are not connected to any larger comet or asteroid or regularly tracked meteor shower. And the sudden surge is not due to an increase in the number of eyes on the sky, he said.

Astronomers who have dedicated themselves to watching the skies for the falling space rocks are not sure what caused the spike or if it is even a true anomaly—a one-off, unpredictable occurrence.

Hankey stops short of saying his data—an analysis of fireball events going back to 2011—are conclusive.

“I wouldn’t say that it’s an earth-shattering anything,” he said. “It’s just an observation, right? It’s just saying, ‘Hey, this is the most traffic we’ve ever had in any single month.’

“Without publishing a paper to prove that, I can’t say, ‘Oh, it’s not a statistical anomaly.’ Maybe it is.”

In the meantime, here’s what to know about these events.

What Is a ‘Fireball’?

The term “fireball” is essentially NASA’s designation for what kids would call a shooting star—a small piece of space debris whose self-destructive path through Earth’s atmosphere creates a streaking fireball brighter than the brilliant planet Venus.

The space agency released a meteor-focused FAQ page after multiple “fireball events” went viral in early spring.

Any space rocks that are more than a meter in diameter are called “asteroids,” and anything smaller is called a “meteoroid.” Meteoroids normally break off from a comet or asteroid, but on rare occasions have been found to be parts of the moon or Mars.

When either an asteroid or a meteoroid enters Earth’s atmosphere and starts to streak across the sky, it becomes a “meteor.“ When multiple objects enter the atmosphere from the same origin point, that event is called a ”meteor shower.”

When a meteor reaches an observable brightness greater than the luminosity of Venus in the morning or evening sky, it becomes registered as a “fireball.”

“They enter the atmosphere at relatively low speeds,” Hankey explained in a press release. “Slower entry means the meteor lasts longer in the sky, is visible over a wider area, produces sonic booms more often, and more material survives to reach the ground as meteorites.”

Any pieces of the meteor that survive the trip through the atmosphere and make it to Earth’s surface are called meteorites.

A graphic illustrating meteor terminology. Illustration by The Epoch Times, Freepik, Getty Images

For example, on March 17, a fireball was spotted over parts of Canada and the United States, breaking apart over northern Ohio. NASA confirmed the falling object to be an asteroid six feet in diameter and weighing about seven tons. Upon entering the atmosphere at 45,000 mph, it became a meteor. Then, it got so bright it became a fireball that eventually blew up mid-air, resulting in meteorite fragments falling to the ground.

While this event caught the nation’s attention, NASA said it is not that rare.

“Meteors are actually quite common,” the space agency explained. ”They occur all the time, and fireballs can be seen on any given night. But they often occur over the ocean or unpopulated areas with no witnesses, or during the daytime, making them difficult to spot.

“Viewers who catch a clear view of one in the dark skies above are treated to a spectacular sky show—but one that is hardly rare.”

(Left) A meteor streaks across the sky during the annual Perseid meteor shower in Spruce Knob, W. Va., on Aug. 11, 2021. (Right) A fireball event observed in Black River Falls, Wis., on Jan. 24, 2026. Bill Ingalls/NASA, Justin J. via www.amsmeteors.org

Tracking Fireballs

Most of the time, fireballs are small objects that create a flash across the sky lasting only a few seconds, Hankey told The Epoch Times. However, some can be big enough to create a sonic boom and deliver some fragments to the ground, possibly causing damage to lives and property.

Regardless of the scale of the event, the American Meteor Society urges those who witness a fireball to file a report on its website, noting when and where they saw the fireball, how long it shone in the sky, whether or not they heard a sonic boom, and whether or not they observed the fireball break up into fragments.

Then, similar to how the National Weather Service sends out assessment teams to confirm tornado sightings submitted by its spotter network, the society tasks teams to assess the reports coming in. Those teams will officially confirm the falling meteor and send out recovery teams to search for and collect any surviving fragments. More than 200 fragments were found from the March 17 fireball event alone.

(Left) A still from a video captures a fireball in Kennerdell, Pa., on March 17, 2026. (Right) A still from a home security camera video captures a fireball in Ravenna, Ohio, on March 17, 2026. Courtesy of Jeff Campbell, David Hamann/American Meteor Society

The society also utilizes the 1,000-camera All Sky 7 network to keep as close an eye on the night sky as possible.

Hankey joined the society in 2010. A software developer by trade, he rebuilt the organization’s website and fireball reporting tool and continues to use Google Maps and Claude AI to streamline the collection and organization of the society’s data.

That data—often organically acquired as people file observational reports—produces new insights into the field of astronomy and space weather. Through this data collection, the society is able to figure out a meteor’s speed, size, and origin.

NASA, meanwhile, has its own eyes on the sky with the NASA All-Sky Fireball Network, a group of 17 cameras spread out across the country, run by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office.

Three of those cameras are located in Florida, three in the northern Ohio/Pennsylvania area, and five in southern New Mexico and Arizona. Six others are found in north Alabama, north Georgia, southern Tennessee, and southern North Carolina.

NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office also focuses on understanding how much of a risk these meteor impacts and their apparently seasonal fluctuations pose to spacecraft flying in and beyond Earth’s orbit.

An illustration depicts NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft prior to impact at the Didymos binary asteroid system. The mission tested whether intentionally crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid is an effective way to change its course, should an Earth-threatening asteroid be discovered in the future. Steve Gribben/Johns Hopkins APL/NASA

However, most fireballs are very small and are very difficult to track.

“The objects are pretty small, you know,” Hankey said. “A golf ball will make a fireball. A bowling ball will make a huge fireball. Something that’s like the size of a chair would make a humongous fireball. But to a telescope a million miles away, it’s not even a speck.”

NASA’s planetary defense network specifically looks for space rocks that are 140 meters or larger—larger than a small football stadium—which are deemed large enough to cause widespread damage if they breach the earth’s atmosphere.

Unclear If Fireball ‘Spike’ Is an Anomaly

But Hankey noted that as more and more data are collected over the years, the recent, seemingly random spike in sporadic fireballs may turn out to be not so random after all.

He pointed out that another spike in large fireball events was logged in the first quarter of 2021, although that number was still less than this year’s: 30 events reported by at least 50 people each, compared to 41.

The American Meteor Society published a graph of the number of fireball events reported by more than 50 people during the first quarter of the last 15 years in March, 2026. Illustrated by The Epoch Times, Courtesy of the American Meteor Society

“If we see that same spike in 2031, I mean, it’s a long way to wait—five more years—but that might say something,” he said. “If we can say, ‘Look, the AMS saw this same spike in five-year increments,’ then we would hypothesize that we would see it in the fourth year. If we did, we could probably prove it, right?”

“I mean, I’ll probably be almost 70 at that point,” he added. “That’s just the way astronomy is.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 07:20

Norovirus Outbreak Sickens 115 People on Caribbean Princess Cruise Ship, CDC Says

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

More than 110 people aboard the Caribbean Princess cruise ship have fallen ill due to a norovirus outbreak, a common cause of gastrointestinal illnesses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Caribbean Princess, owned by Princess Cruises, departed from the port of Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on April 28 and is currently sailing in the North Atlantic Ocean, according to CruiseMapper.

The voyage dates were April 28 to May 11. The ship is carrying 3,116 passengers and 1,131 crew members and is expected to arrive in Port Canaveral, Florida, on May 11.

The norovirus outbreak was reported on the ship on May 7, affecting 102 passengers and 13 crew members, with diarrhea and vomiting identified as the predominant symptoms, the CDC said in an update.

Princess Cruises and the crew have increased cleaning and disinfection procedures in response to the outbreak, the CDC stated. Other measures include collecting stool samples from patients with gastrointestinal illness for testing and isolating passengers and crew members who have fallen ill.

The crew also consulted with the CDC’s Vessel Sanitation Program (VSP) regarding sanitation cleaning procedures and reporting of sick individuals, the agency said.

“VSP is conducting a field response for an environmental assessment and outbreak investigation to assist the ship in controlling the outbreak,” it stated.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Princess Cruises for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Norovirus is the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States, accounting for 58 percent of such infections each year, according to the CDC.

Apart from vomiting and diarrhea, other frequently reported symptoms include muscle aches, headaches, abdominal cramps, and fever.

In March, a norovirus outbreak was reported aboard the Star Princess, also owned by Princess Cruises, affecting 104 passengers and 49 crew members. Last December, a norovirus outbreak on an Aida Cruises ship sickened more than 100 people.

Cruise ships are required to report cases of gastrointestinal illness to the CDC. The agency said that reporting symptoms to the medical center onboard can help health officials detect gastrointestinal outbreaks quickly and take steps to limit the spread of illness.

Medical staff would then evaluate symptoms to determine whether they meet the case definition for the illness, including three or more loose stools within a 24-hour period or vomiting along with another symptom such as diarrhea, aching muscles, or fever.

On average, norovirus causes around 900 deaths, mainly in adults aged 65 and older, 109,000 hospitalizations, 465,000 emergency room visits, and 19 million to 21 million illnesses in the United States each year, according to the CDC.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 06:30

These Are The World's Deadliest Countries For Journalists

At least 60 media professionals were killed in 2025 due to their journalistic activities, according to the Reporters Without Borders (RSF) database.

As Statista's Valentine Fourreau detsils below, by far the deadliest place for journalists was in the Palestinian territories, where 25 deaths were officially recorded last year. Palestine also topped the list in 2024, with 21 recorded deaths that year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Following some way behind are Mexico with nine deaths, Peru with four, Ecuador and Ukraine with three, as well as Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan with two.

A single journalist was also killed in each of the following countries: Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nepal, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe.

Meanwhile, 140 journalists and media professionals were listed as “disappeared” last year, with the highest numbers recorded in Syria (37), Mexico (28) and Iraq (12).

Reporters Without Borders emphasizes that media professionals’ deaths are only listed in their database if the NGO can confirm it as being linked to their journalistic work.

This explains why these figures seem low and that they are subject to change as fact-checking is carried out.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 05:45

A BrAIve New World For High Yield

Authored by Luke Coha via BondVigilantes.com,

As the world grapples with how AI will shape and change our lives going forward from the mundane, like automated homes or more clever apps, to more existential threats (opportunities?) leading to job and possibly sector obsolescence and related, broader social implications, it’s definitely well accepted that the demand for AI computing power is enormous and growing.

Estimates vary, but they are all astronomical, ranging from $5 trillion to $7 trillion in capital investment needed to fund the global data centre and AI buildout, including adding 122 GW of power capacity between now and 2030 (according to JP Morgan). This scale of investment will require involvement from virtually all sources of funding, including public capital markets, private credit, governments and asset-backed securitisation funding.

While not nearly on the same scale as investment grade markets, high yield markets have been playing, and will continue to play, a role in this buildout financing mostly via the funding of data centres. This has important implications for the asset class. In very short order, AI related and data centre issuance has exploded from effectively nothing just over a year ago to nearly $40 billion today, with close to $30 billion issued since the start of the year.

This sheer quantum of issuance is huge and effectively amounts to an entirely new subsector created nearly overnight within the high yield market. The vast majority of this issuance is index eligible and currently represents approximately 1.6% of the Global High Yield Bond Index (and 2.6% of the U.S. High Yield Bond Index). What’s more, from estimates we’ve seen, expectations are for total high yield, AI related issuance to reach $100 billion to $120 billion over the next few years.

Should this manifest, it would represent close to 4% to 5% of the global index and 6% to 7% of the U.S. index, of similar scale as long existing and well established retail and capital goods subsectors. This scale, coupled with mostly above index level yields, makes it difficult, if not impossible, for active managers that are benchmark-aware to ignore. It will be imperative to understand the broader narrative as well as the idiosyncratic characteristics of the individual issuers. As stated, this is effectively a new sector to the market and participants, such as analysts, strategists and fund managers, need to, if they haven’t already done so, get up to speed quickly.

At the time of writing there are now 15 high yield data centre bonds totalling $39 billion (including neocloud provider CoreWeave). High yield data centre bond issuance has coalesced around similar, project-finance-like features but with important variations.

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research. Note: excludes issuance by neocloud CoreWeave, which has $6.5bn of regular-way HY bonds outstanding

Generally, bonds are being issued with five-year non call two-year structures and mostly amortising. By definition these issuers will have more leverage than traditional IG issuers but some will have financial backstops from the likes of Google, while others will not. Most will have high-quality tenants like Nvidia, and hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, while others will have a variety of tenants. Some are single asset facilities while others are multi-site and multijurisdictional. Some will be well advanced in their construction timeline while others will have yet to have broken ground. Some will have contracted power supply including back up power, and some are still negotiating power supply agreements… you get the idea. And that’s leaving aside the complexities around lease terms, cost overrun provisions, covenants etc.

There are already rumblings in the high yield market surrounding concerns that the explosion in issuance has bubble-like characteristics similar to that of telecoms in the early 2000s or energy in 2015 to 2017, when investor enthusiasm outweighed a sober assessment of risk. These same critics also worry about the potential for overbuild or overcapacity, i.e. the massive demand fails to materialise, or that despite the strong tenant base, these contracts have yet to be tested.

Conversely, proponents of the nascent space point to the undeniable demand for more compute capacity and expectations that any individual project disruptions or failures would be tolerated by their well-heeled tenants who, with strong demand for capacity, would support any centres that came into difficulty; and if not, demand is so great, other well capitalised tenants would simply step in. Further, regardless of long term dynamics, there is massive demand now and any project that is up and running, or close to, has a first mover advantage and any capacity concerns etc. are for projects well down the development pipeline.

Further, some view this as an attractive ‘yield to call’ play, inferring that as these projects are up and running and generating more cash, the issuer will have the capacity to refinance their high coupon, high yield issues at more attractive terms, arguably creating a potential short term opportunity for high yield investors.

Ultimately, being completely short the space due to uncertainties requires a high degree of conviction that the sector is mispriced and even vulnerable. Conversely, going overweight the sector is an acceptance of a broader narrative that has only recently manifested itself. All of which highlights that careful credit work on individual issuers and a broader understanding of these dynamics is paramount.

Source: Meta

Bottom line, balancing this supply, index and yield dynamic versus fully understanding the fundamental, technical and issuer risks and rewards is a real challenge for high yield markets. And with all things AI related, we need to understand if this dynamic potentially represents – and if so, how to adapt to – to paraphrase Aldous Huxley, a Brave New World.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 05:00

Singapore Remains The World's Most Powerful Passport In 2026

Your passport shapes how much of the world you can access. In 2026, the gap between the strongest and weakest passports spans nearly 170 destinations.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalists' Gabriel Cohen, ranks global passport strength using data from the Henley Passport Index, based on how many destinations citizens can enter without a visa.

Singapore leads with access to 192 destinations. That’s nearly five times the access available to citizens of the lowest-ranked countries. Meanwhile, the weakest passports allow entry to fewer than 50 destinations. The disparity highlights how geography, diplomacy, and stability influence global mobility.

The Top Passports of Asia and Europe

Following Singapore, there is a three-way tie for the second-strongest passports, with Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates each offering access to 187 destinations without a visa.

The UAE has the strongest passport outside of East or Southeast Asia, though with a notable caveat: Emiratis lack visa-free access to the United States, unlike their peers in Singapore, Japan, or South Korea.

From there, Europeans hold many of the strongest passports by visa-free access, led by Northern and Western European countries like Norway and Switzerland (both 185).

While the 27-member European Union has a unified passport system, individual member countries still vary in visa-free access, ranging from 177 destinations for Bulgaria and Romania to 186 for Sweden.

Taking the average across this range, the EU’s overall passport strength stands at 183 visa-free destinations, tied with countries like Malaysia and the United Kingdom and slightly ahead of North American counterparts like Canada (182) and the United States (179).

The World’s Weakest Passports

At the bottom of the ranking, mobility drops off dramatically. The weakest passports offer access to fewer than 50 destinations, less than a quarter of what top-ranked countries enjoy.

These countries often face political instability, high emigration, or recent conflict, which can limit access to many developed regions.

African countries like Nigeria (44), Somalia (32), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (43) also rank low. Fast-growing populations and large diasporas have contributed to tighter visa restrictions for these nationalities.

A Tale of Two Passports

Taken together, passport rankings reveal more than travel convenience—they map global inequality. Where you’re born can shape where you’re allowed to go, making passport power one of the clearest indicators of opportunity in a connected world.

African, Middle Eastern, and South Asian passports tend to rank lower than their European or Western Hemisphere counterparts. Even higher-ranking exceptions like Malaysia or the UAE can still face limits on visa-free access to major destinations, particularly the United States.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The United Arab Emirates has the World’s Most Affordable Passport on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 04:15

Meanwhile In Scotland...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A trans Tamil immigrant on a temporary student visa has just been ELECTED as a Green Party MSP to Holyrood in Scotland – despite having no British citizenship, no permanent residency and no right to full-time work.

Where else would this be allowed to happen? It’s insane.

The candidate, Dr Q Manivannan (they/them), arrived in the UK a few years ago as a PhD student and was selected for the Green list in Edinburgh and the Lothians East. Scotland’s rules – relaxed under the SNP – explicitly allow non-citizens to stand for election and take office.

A trans Indian migrant who arrived in the UK a few years ago and is not a citizen or permanent resident was elected to the Scottish parliament as a member of the woke Green Party. Scotland allows non-citizens to become elected to office.

“Q Mannivannan” is set to earn over… pic.twitter.com/3ePA6B0le1

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) May 9, 2026

Trans Green Party candidate with no permanent British visa is elected to Holyrood https://t.co/KCSmyt3YuE

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) May 10, 2026

Manivannan’s own victory remarks left nothing to the imagination. “My name is Dr Q Manivannan, I am a transgender Tamil immigrant, my pronouns are they/them.” And later: “I am, to some in this country, everything that the hateful despise, and I’m standing here as your MSP now with care.”

Q Manivannan, transgender Indian migrant now Scottish Greens MSP, arguing for 'trans pride'.

"Transness is Blackness. Transness is womanhood. Transness is disability. Transness is everything the world wants you to believe that is unlovable."

He goes on to defend Mridul Wadhwa,… pic.twitter.com/HJOQ6bXqBQ

— 'New Scots' Profiles (@NewScotProfiles) May 10, 2026

The individual is clearly not OK mentally.

He's also racist against White people and suffers extreme mental sickness according to his many posts about it all pic.twitter.com/GrEIiMqZu2

— ddsnorth ™ (@ddsnorth) May 10, 2026

This is not an isolated stunt. The Green Party has become a conduit for an unholy alliance of islamists and gender ideology obsessives.

Deputy leader Mothin Ali was pictured alongside a trans candidate, the awkward expression speaking volumes.

The guy on the left is the Green Party's deputy leader, Mothin Ali; the woman on the right is one of his party's trans candidates. The look on his face says it all. Is there a future for this marriage of convenience between Islamist extremism and woke crankery? I doubt it. pic.twitter.com/v9JJWOkRR9

— Never Again (@Never_Again2020) May 9, 2026

Other recent Green candidates reinforce the pattern. In Preston, new councillor “Tina” Balmer declared: “I want to help the city I love.”

? "I want to help the city I love" – Meet Preston's first ever Green Party councillor, Tina Balmer.??

Tina ffs! ?

Is it Tina but pronounced Trevor? ? pic.twitter.com/GkTmz9zJ4K

— Matt Casey ??????? ?? (@MattCas04807118) May 9, 2026

Here are more Green candidates that stood for election:

Wow these are Green Party Candidates ?

How would you describe this look? pic.twitter.com/FzA29MK4JT

— Benonwine (@benonwine) May 1, 2026

A small compendium of Green Party candidates, make up your own mind about what this says about the state of British politics. pic.twitter.com/9X4nDULsJg

— Kevin Lister (@KevsTribulation) May 8, 2026

"What’s interesting about these Green Party candidates is that they are actually men" pic.twitter.com/DkdTIuL4Ty

— Barry Robson (@barryrobson) May 8, 2026

And here’s the support they’re drawing…

Say hello to 'Kate', from the Redbridge Green Party. Not mental at all… pic.twitter.com/xkVGaXBqXI

— RagingDissident_ (@JustRaging01) February 27, 2026

They’ll lecture you all day long about ‘hate’, meanwhile…

How many Green Party Candidates investigated over antisemitic hate:

Just the thirty. pic.twitter.com/Nuftw4gVnz

— Tom Hawklin Jr (@TomHawklin10558) May 7, 2026

Many of them simply don’t bother to speak English:

GB News host Martin Daubney can't understand the Green Party and neither can we!

Political candidates in Britain should speak English. pic.twitter.com/au6CkSRdVp

— Turning Point UK ?? (@TPointUK) May 8, 2026

Meanwhile, UK Deputy Green Party leader had a meltdown when Piers Morgan asked if in her view women can have penises:

UK Deputy Green Party leader has meltdown after Piers Morgan asked if she thinks women can have “penises.”

“That’s a weird question. Piers it’s a weird question. The answer is the trans community in this country are treated appallingly.” pic.twitter.com/qWVPRg0fdU

— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) May 9, 2026

He asked that question because during a previous exchange, Party leader Zack Polanski went full gender-ideologue, claiming women can have penises and dismissed biological reality.

The party is also pushing to teach schoolchildren they should have a “moral obligation” to accept mass immigration.

The Greens aren’t just pushing open borders and gender ideology – they are the vehicle that fuses the two into one destructive package.

Scotland’s sovereignty is now being exercised by people who aren’t even British citizens, while taxpayers foot the bill for six-figure salaries and the erosion of women’s rights, free speech and national identity.

This isn’t democracy. It’s demographic replacement dressed up as progress – and the Green Party is leading the parade.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 03:30

EU Prepares For 'Potential' Talks With Putin As US Slowly Reduces Troops On Continent

A recent report in Financial Times indicates the European Union is preparing for "potential" future talks with Russia and President Vladimir Putin at a moment of extreme doubts over both US military commitments and Russia's intentions in Ukraine.

Putin himself during his V-Day speech Saturday hinted for the first time that the conflict may be 'coming to an end':

"I ⁠⁠think that the matter is coming to an end," Putin told reporters of the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.

The Russian leader, however, added he would be willing to meet Zelensky only after the terms of a peace agreement had already been settled. The Kremlin had rejected US President Donald Trump’s August 2025 offer to hold a trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump.

"This should be the final point, not the negotiations themselves," Putin said after the Victory Day, which marks Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 in World War II.

Sputnik/Reuters

Also on Saturday, António Costa, the president of the European Council, said to a press conference the EU will only talk to Putin at the "right moment". Costa ultimately sees "potential" for direct EU engagement with Putin

"We need in the right moment to have talks with Russia to address our common issues with security," the EU president had said.

"We don’t want to disturb the initiative led by President Trump," said Costa at a ‘Europe Day’ celebration in Brussels. He also spoke of preparations aimed at being "ready to do what we need to do” regarding Europe’s security.

And separately an EU official said: "There will be a moment when the EU will need to speak to Russia because it’s an existential issue for Europe. Now it’s not the time."

President Trump has recently blasted NATO as a "paper tiger" (though it wasn't the first time) and has said the US is withdrawing 5,000 American troops from Germany.

In response, European governments have accelerated discussions on deeper EU military coordination, including joint defense initiatives which bypass US protection.

Currently, the three-day Ukraine ceasefire announced and backed by President Trump appears to have held throughout the weekend, as no drone attacks have been registered on Moscow or other parts of the country. 

Trump had presented this as a window and opportunity to achieve a more permanent truce, and Putin is without doubt seizing on the initiative, but surely wants a final settlement in line with Kremlin aims in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 02:45

Why Socialism Fails

Authored by Deborah Palma via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Economics is not a zero-sum game in which one person’s gain comes at another’s expense; nor is it just about numbers or purposeless statistical aggregates, but conscious human action.

Custom image by FEE

Ludwig von Mises, in his work “Human Action,” explains that individuals act to replace a less satisfactory state of affairs with a more satisfactory one. This process is inherently subjective and teleological, meaning that the values guiding economic activity are rooted in individual choices, and not in physical objects themselves.

Economic calculation serves as the bridge between the subjectivity of human desires and the objective reality of scarce resources. Consider a quantity of steel that could be used to build either a hospital or a factory. Without a system of prices reflecting society’s preferences and the relative scarcity of resources, there would be no way to determine which of these projects creates greater value. Economic calculation, expressed through prices, allows for the comparison of alternatives, whilst directing resources toward their most-valued uses.

Similarly, consider an entrepreneur evaluating whether they should open a bakery. They must decide how much to invest in equipment, rent, labor, and so on. By comparing the costs of these factors with the expected revenue from sales, our entrepreneur can estimate whether the business will create value. If revenues are expected to exceed total costs and taxes, there will be profit.

Profit, therefore, is not merely a financial gain, but evidence that scarce resources have been allocated in ways that better satisfy societal needs, because society has, in an undirected way, decided its needs are satisfied this way. Conversely, losses would indicate that those resources should have been allocated to more valuable uses. Without prices, profits, and losses, the entrepreneur would have no way of knowing whether resources are being used efficiently.

In a complex economy with an advanced division of labor, individuals cannot rely solely on their own direct knowledge to decide how to allocate resources among many possible combinations. They require a common denominator that allows for the comparison of costs and benefits. This denominator is the price, which emerges from voluntary exchanges in the market.

Prices are not arbitrary numbers; they are determined by exchange values arising from the competitive interaction between consumers and producers. Price reflects the relative scarcity of a good in relation to all other possible uses of the same factors of production.

When an entrepreneur invests in new technology or capital infrastructure, they rely on monetary calculation to assess whether the value of the final product will exceed the total value of the inputs consumed. This “surplus” is profit, an unmistakable signal that value has been created by, and for, society. The opposite—loss—signals the waste of scarce resources.

The importance of prices becomes even more evident when we examine historical attempts to artificially control them. Throughout history, governments have sought to replace the market price system with centrally-directed mechanisms, and the results have been consistently disastrous.

One of the earliest examples dates back to the reign of Diocletian in the Roman Empire. In 301 AD, the emperor issued the Edict on Maximum Prices, imposing price ceilings on thousands of goods and services, including basic items such as wheat, meat, and clothing, as well as wages for various professions such as farmers, bakers, craftsmen, and teachers. By fixing prices below their market-clearing levels, the policy reduced the incentive for producers to supply these goods, since many could no longer cover their costs or earn a profit. At the same time, artificially low prices increased consumer demand. This imbalance between reduced supply and increased demand led to widespread shortages. As a result, many goods disappeared from official markets and were instead traded illegally at higher prices, contributing to the expansion of black markets and the disruption of normal productive activity. The policy ultimately proved unsustainable and was abandoned due to its failure.

More recently, similar policies were implemented in Brazil under the government of José Sarney, particularly during the Cruzado Plan of 1986. The freezing of prices, initially celebrated as a solution to inflation, quickly resulted in widespread shortages, empty shelves, and the emergence of parallel markets. Unable to adjust prices, producers reduced supply, exposing the inability of such measures to coordinate a complex economy.

More recent cases reinforce this pattern. In Venezuela, strict price controls implemented over the past decades have contributed to chronic shortages, the collapse of domestic production, and increasing dependence on imports. Basic goods disappeared from store shelves, while informal markets became central to the population’s survival.

These episodes produce the same outcome: scarcity. Prices emerge from decentralized interactions between individuals, reflecting their preferences and the relative scarcity of goods. Once formed, however, they also serve to coordinate economic activity by conveying information that guides producers and consumers in their decisions. When prices cease to reflect the relationship between supply and demand, they lose this informational and coordinating function. Instead of promoting order, price controls generate disorganization, shortages, and waste.

Mises’s thesis was challenged by economists such as Oskar Lange, who proposed a form of “market socialism.” Lange argued that a planning board could simulate the market through a process of trial and error, adjusting prices as surpluses or shortages emerged. However, Mises and his student Friedrich Hayek refuted this view, emphasizing that the problem is not merely one of data processing. The crucial point is that the data required for economic calculation, such as subjective preferences and local knowledge, only come into existence through real market exchanges.

Attempts to treat the economy as a system of simultaneous equations, in which equilibrium can be mathematically determined, ignore the dynamic nature of reality. The market is a continuous process of discovery, not a static state of rest. The economy cannot be managed like a problem of engineering or mechanical physics, because it involves constant change, subjective expectations, and genuine uncertainty, elements that no fixed equation can fully capture.

Under socialism, the abolition of private property in the means of production destroys the very concept of capital as a calculable value. When the state owns all higher-order goods (machines, land, and raw materials), there are no exchanges between private owners for these items. Consequently, there are no market prices for capital goods. Without these prices, the central planner, no matter how well-intentioned, lacks the necessary information to determine whether they are creating wealth or merely consuming the nation’s capital.

From the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE)

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 21:35

US Firm Unveils Ground Bot With Enough Power To Fire Laser Guns

Utah-based defense tech firm Hypercraft has unveiled a 300 hp diesel-hybrid-electric unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) that can power directed-energy weapons, charge drones, and sustain a forward command post, all autonomously.

Defense Blog’s Dylan Malyasov reports that Hypercraft’s Razorback UGV can travel 280 miles on a single charge, reach speeds of 60 mph, and export 38 kilowatts of power, which is enough to power laser weapons and recharge drones.

Razorback is being positioned as a critical energy source for forward operating units that need power for drones, electronic warfare, ISR, counter-UAS systems, and communications. The UGV is also designed to move supplies and support infrastructure on the modern battlefield.

The role of UGVs on the battlefield is still being shaped in real time by the Russia-Ukraine war, where robots, whether ground bots or drones, are increasingly removing infantrymen from harm's way as the grinding fight evolves into a war of attrition fought by machines.

The wars across Eurasia, from Ukraine-Russia to the U.S.-Iran conflict, have validated a new style of warfare in which cheap ground robots and drones increasingly operate in ‘no man's land’ (front lines). The next phase is already coming: humanoid systems entering the battlespace as militaries look to push more machines, not infantrymen, into the kill zone.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 21:00

More States Enact New Laws Curbing Teachers Unions

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

New organized labor reforms signed into law by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis last week require a majority of members to be present for teachers union certification or recertification votes, increase fines for illegal strikes, and establish merit-based pay for educators.

Students join striking teachers as they demand higher pay and smaller class sizes outside Oakland Technical High School in Oakland, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2019. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

In Idaho, after July 1, teachers unions will be prohibited from collecting dues directly from members’ paychecks, using paid time off for union activities, or recruiting new members during school hours.

A similar law in Arizona, which also bans teacher strikes and prohibits organized labor members from using any school property—even email addresses—for union activities, will be decided on by voters in the November election.

“They can’t consume taxpayer-funded resources during the school day,” said Rusty Brown, special projects director for the Freedom Foundation policy organization, which assisted state legislators with those measures and helps teachers opt out of union membership.

These ideas are expected to gain ground throughout the nation in the months and years ahead, Brown told The Epoch Times.

Individually, the Freedom Foundation’s Teacher Freedom Alliance has so far helped more than 272,535 teachers opt out of union membership, including more than 50,000 in 2025 alone, according to data provided to The Epoch Times. This includes educators in red and blue states.

At the state level, Oklahoma lawmakers have advanced legislation that would allow teachers to withdraw from a union at any time and would terminate “closed shop” provisions that prevent teachers from accessing alternative labor or professional organizations, such as the Teacher Freedom Alliance.

Brown calls this an “equal access and an end to a monopoly and captive audience bill.” Alternative organizations can offer teacher liability insurance and other benefits at a fraction of the price that traditional unions charge, he said.

Brown said he believes that the legislation could pass before Oklahoma’s session ends later this month, but the member withdrawal proposal probably won’t go through this session.

Alabama state lawmakers will consider legislation similar to Oklahoma’s next session, he said.

Maxford Nelsen, Freedom Foundation’s director of research and government affairs, said several factors prompted growing interest in pushing back against teachers unions. Members do not like that dues are automatically deducted from their paychecks. There is increasing animosity toward “zombie unions,” in which a limited number of members are informed or allowed to vote on matters. Labor organizations also engage in practices that create very narrow windows and bureaucratic hurdles for terminating membership.

“That’s the last thing they want to think about during their summer vacation,” Nelsen told The Epoch Times, citing one union’s requirement in which opt-outs were limited to the last 10 days of July.

Perhaps the most contentious issue, Nelson said, is how teachers union dues are spent. A review of the National Education Association and American Federation of Teachers unions’ websites shows that both heavily favor Democrats and promote transgender ideology; diversity, equity, and inclusion practices; special protections for illegal immigrants; anti-school choice measures; and other left-leaning policies.

“Hundreds of millions of dollars are flowing into this progressive apparatus,” Nelson said.

A recent report from Defending Education, a conservative policy center, states that teachers unions at the local, state, and national levels have spent more than $1 billion on “far-left political causes” unrelated to collective bargaining since 2015. This includes school board races, political action committees, and campaigns against school choice.

“Given the outsized role that unions have played in the education system over the past 50 years, greater transparency on union spending is absolutely critical so that policymakers and teachers themselves can make informed decisions about the role that these entities should—or should not—play in the future,” Defending Education President Nicole Neily said in an April 27 statement.

The Epoch Times reached out to the National Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers unions for comment.

In response to prior Florida legislation that prohibited teachers unions from deducting dues directly from paychecks, the Florida Education Association contracted with a company to withdraw dues from members’ bank accounts after their paychecks are deposited.

“This type of ‘paycheck deception’ legislation is nothing new and has been wielded across the country to weaken unions and roll back working conditions,” the Florida Education Association stated on its website. “It’s no secret that this legislation is designed to diminish our collective voice.”

The Idaho Education Association teachers union implemented a similar system. It also denounced Idaho Gov. Brad Little for refusing to veto the legislation.

“Idaho’s students and the dedicated professionals who teach them will be worse off because of his choice,” the union’s president, Layne McInelly, said in an April 10 statement. “They deserve better.”

The Freedom Foundation is scrutinizing public organized labor groups across the nation, not just teachers unions. In Oregon, it recently submitted a complaint to the state employment relations board on behalf of a union member who said dues were deducted from his paycheck without his authorization. He asked for a refund and requested to opt out of the union, only to be told that the window to do so is Aug. 8 through Sept. 9, according to documentation provided to The Epoch Times.

Nelsen did not work on that case but said this type of practice by unions is common in an era of direct deposits and withdrawals and digital forms.

“There are no mechanisms in place to verify that the individual workers have authorized the form, let alone understand it,” he said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 20:25

Kraft Heinz CEO: "Consumers Are Literally Running Out Of Money Toward The End Of The Month"

While the digital US economy, if proxied through the earnings growth and stock prices of AI companies and their "picks and shovels" support ecosystem, has never been stronger, the traditional US consumer, responsible for 70% of US GDP, has rarely been more depressed than right now (and according to the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey, Americans have literally never been more pessimistic). 

That was the take home message from the latest earnings week, when various executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods indicated they are increasingly worried about US shoppers - especially those from the" lower half" of the K-shaped economy - with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the Iran war, and consumer electronics prices through the roof thanks to record memory chip prices.

“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in an interview with the WSJ . “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings.” Sure enough, last week we showed that as a result of personal spending growth far outpacing personal income...

... the personal savings rate has collapsed to a 3 year low.

This underscores a remarkable trend: since the pandemic, Americans have continued to spend at surprising levels despite high inflation, keeping the US economy growing and thwarting recession fears, with much of the spending growth fueled by credit card debt, with February's $10BN+ increase in credit card debt the highest since February 2024.

But soaring fuel costs might be the straw that breaks the overlevered camel's back: “The war in Iran amplified consumer concerns about the cost of living,” Whirlpool. CEO Marc Bitzer said Thursday on a call with analysts. The maker of washers and dryers said it’s counting on purchases picking up after a harsh US winter slowed shopping, but the war caused a collapse in consumer sentiment. The company described the resulting 15% hit to industry demand as similar to the global financial crisis in the aughts. In other words a depression.

In fast food, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said confidence among shoppers isn’t improving and may be getting worse. The company cited “heightened anxiety” and gas prices that disproportionately impact low-income consumers.

Sit-down dining is also taking a hit. “Our price-sensitive, more value-oriented guests seem to be staying home a bit more,” Dine Brands CEO John Peyton said on an earnings call this week. The company, which owns the Applebee’s and IHOP chains, said it hasn’t seen a similar pullback in other income levels.

Meanwhile, eyewear retailer Warby Parker  said younger shoppers are feeling the pinch from higher-than-usual unemployment and student debt bills.

Gas prices, now at $4.56 a gallon on average, are at their highest levels since July 2022, according to data from the American Automobile Association. As shoppers put more of their income toward fuel, they have less money for discretionary spending like eating out. Enlarged tax refunds helped blunt some of the impact, but sentiment has still soured to a record low.

Americans are putting less away as they try to keep up, with the savings rate dropping in March to the lowest in three years. Meanwhile, economists warn the disruptions from the war in Iran could lead to higher prices for a range of goods over time, including groceries, putting even more pressure on low-income households and draining what little savings are left. 

Low-income consumers have already cut back on real gasoline consumption to try to limit costs, according to recent research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

In the near term, Americans can draw down savings or tap credit cards, but the longer gas prices stay high, the more consumers will change their spending patterns to balance their budgets, said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.

Planet Fitness on Thursday fell the most on record after cutting its full-year outlook on weaker-than-expected member signups during the typically busy New Year period.

The gym chain also said it paused the national rollout of a price increase to its top-tier membership, with CEO Colleen Keating making it clear why that decision was made. “The consumer and economic backdrop have shifted,” she said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 19:50

Secret Israeli Base Hidden In Iraqi Desert Backed Operations Inside Iran

In a revelation sure to outrage Baghdad and broad swathes of the Iraqi public, Israel established a secret military base in Iraq's desert region to support air operations against Iran, related to the start of Trump's Operation Epic Fury, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.

Israeli forces even at one point launched airstrikes early in the conflict on Iraqi troops who approached the site and risked exposing it, per sources cited in the report. The outpost was reportedly erected under extreme secrecy shortly before the US and Israel launched the surprise, unprovoked aerial bombardment of Iran, and at a moment Tehran thought it was negotiating with Washington.

Illustrative: IDF image

The WSJ further said the secret base was placed there with US awareness and used it as a logistics hub for Israeli air force operations, further with Israeli special forces operating. 

According to details in the report, the site was to assist in any emergency special forces operations connected with the bombing raids on nearby Iran:

Search-and-rescue teams were positioned there in case Israeli pilots were downed. None have been. When a U.S. F-15 was shot down near Isfahan, Israel offered to help, but U.S. forces managed the rescue of two airmen themselves, one of the people said. Israel did carry out airstrikes to help protect the operation.

The Israeli base was almost discovered in early March. Iraqi state media said a local shepherd reported unusual military activity in the area, including helicopter flights, and the Iraqi military sent troops to investigate. Israel kept them at bay with airstrikes, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

In the end, no rescue missions became necessary, or at least as far as public awareness goes. There may be much that happened related to the outpost which remains classified, however.

The report further describes that after a US F-15 fighter jet was downed near Isfahan, Israel offered assistance, but US forces recovered the two crew members on their own. Strangely, the Pentagon has still issued nothing confirmable related to that operation, and not even the identities of the rescued pilots are as yet known.

The base almost was exposed in early March after Iraqi state media reported that a shepherd spotted suspicious military activity in the area, including helicopter movements, triggering an Iraqi military investigation.

Certainly if Iraqi forces had discovered it, the base would have been immediately attacked, especially by pro-Iran paramilitary forces.

The blue lines on the Israeli flag symbolize the Nile and Euphrates rivers – the borders of the biblical "Greater Israel"

In other news, Israel maintained a secret base inside Iraq and attacked Iraqi soldiers when they attempted to investigate it https://t.co/sHoetrHrOC

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) May 9, 2026

As the WSJ story becomes more well-known inside Iraq this weekend, rising anger and outrage is expected, at a sensitive moment that a new future Iraqi prime minister has been tapped.

"This reckless operation was carried out without coordination or approval," Qais Al-Muhammadawi, deputy commander of Iraq's Joint Operations Command, told Iraqi state media following the March incident.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 15:10

Bahrain Intensifies Crackdown On Shia Communities, Arrests Dozens Over Alleged IRGC Links

Via The Cradle

Bahrain’s Interior Ministry announced on Saturday the arrest of 41 citizens, including multiple Shia religious leaders, over alleged ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The ministry said security services uncovered the alleged network through "investigations, security reports, and previous Public Prosecution cases related to espionage involving foreign entities." The detainees are accused of "espionage involving foreign entities and sympathy with blatant Iranian aggression."

AFP via Getty Images

Around 30 Shia Muslim clerics were among the 41 arrested, as the Gulf monarchy intensifies a campaign of raids and arrests predominantly targeting Shia religious figures and seminary teachers in Bahrain.

The arrests mark a new security escalation by Manama and form part of a continued policy of restrictions against clerics in the country. The Bahrain News Agency reported that legal proceedings are now underway against the 41 detainees.

Earlier this week, Bahrain stripped three lawmakers of their seats in parliament after they publicly criticized the monarchy’s crackdown on dissent over its support for the US–Israeli war on Iran:

In a vote in Manama on Thursday, the Bahraini House of Representatives revoked the memberships of Abdulnabi Salman, Mahdi al-Shuwaikh, and Mamdouh al-Saleh. The three lawmakers publicly opposed the monarchy’s move last week to revoke the citizenship of 69 Bahrainis and their families, accusing them of “sympathizing with Iran.”

Bahrain has a majority Shia population but is ruled by the Sunni Al-Khalifa royal family. The kingdom hosts the largest US naval base in the region, home to the US Fifth Fleet.

That decision came less than two weeks after Bahrain revoked the citizenship of 69 people over alleged support for Iranian retaliatory attacks on the country.

The Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy described the move as "dangerous" and a "blatant abuse of power," saying the individuals had not been publicly named and that their legal status remained unclear.

Since the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, Bahrain has escalated a sweeping domestic crackdown tied to alleged support for Tehran and opposition to the country’s western alignments.

#Bahrain’s regime has intensified a sweeping campaign of raids and arrests targeting Shiite religious scholars, including prominent cleric and seminary professor Sheikh Mahmoud Al-A’ali, amid the systematic crackdown tied to political expression and public positions regarding the… pic.twitter.com/aJ52unoTzb

— Alwefaq Society - English (@AlWefaqEnglish) May 9, 2026

Authorities have reportedly arrested hundreds of people since then, targeting Shia communities, banning public gatherings, detaining activists, and jailing dissidents.

In March, Bahraini authorities tortured Shia activist Mohammad al-Mousawi to death after accusing him of being an Iranian spy, with AP citing witnesses who described signs of beatings, cable whippings, and electrocution burns on his body.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 14:35

Hantavirus-Plagued Cruise Ship Begins Evacuations

Early Sunday morning, the Dutch-flagged cruise ship MV Hondius, anchored off Spain's Canary Islands, began evacuating passengers after a deadly hantavirus outbreak triggered a multinational public health response and put global health authorities on red alert.

"The docking took place at 6:30 a.m. and has been a success in spite of all the adversities," Health Minister Mónica García said in a statement quoted by Bloomberg News.

Health officials have found that "all passengers are asymptomatic," García added.

The U.S. government is evacuating American passengers from a cruise ship tied to a deadly hantavirus outbreak. A CDC team is currently in the Canary Islands assessing potential exposure and monitoring needs.

Passengers will be flown back to the U.S. on a medical repatriation… pic.twitter.com/CSrpbpMXLR

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 10, 2026

Ship-tracking data show that the Hondius was anchored in Granadilla Port, Tenerife, and has since docked.

Last week, the World Health Organization identified eight hantavirus cases linked to the cruise ship: five suspected and three confirmed by laboratory testing. This includes three deaths. There were 149 passengers and crew members on the ship before the evacuation.

The outbreak appears to have started after a Dutch man and his wife traveled in South America, then boarded the Hondius in Argentina on April 1. Both died weeks later.

The New York Post identified patient zero as ornithologist Leo Schilperoord, who was on a multi-month birdwatching trip in South America with his wife, Mirjam Schilperoord. Both died.

Hantavirus is typically spread through rodent droppings or contaminated dust. People can inhale contaminated particles when rodent waste is disturbed. Symptoms may take weeks to appear, making containment and monitoring difficult.

On Friday, President Trump was questioned by reporters about the virus-plagued cruise ship. He said the situation is "very much under control."

Polymarket odds of a hantavirus pandemic have remained under 10% for the last several days.

//--> //--> Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Yes 7% · No 93%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

We questioned at the end of last week whether the vaccine stock trade was back, with Moderna conveniently announcing it was working on a vaccine.

The story count for "pandemic" in Bloomberg news stories remains well below the highs of the Covid-era mass hysteria driven by corporate media.

Will WHO create mass hysteria? That is the question.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 12:50

Housing Market's Crucial "Spring Selling Season" Is In Tatters

Authored by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street,

Late last year and early this year, the story was that dropping mortgage rates, powered by big rate cuts from the Fed, would unleash demand in the housing market in the spring – the key spring selling season – and that sales volume would take off and that Realtors’ commissions would rocket to the moon.

And so that didn’t happen. Inflation has been reheating for months before the war and before the energy price spike. The energy price spike in March and April then added to that resurgence of inflation. The Fed is now talking about a possibility of rate hikes as next move. And longer-term Treasury yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, rose in March and April in response to inflation fears. Mortgage rates, which track those Treasury yields but are higher, rose back to the 6.5% range. And the housing market remained in the same-old-same-old frozen pattern that it has been in for four years after the price explosion from mid-2020 through mid-2022. And it continued in the latest week.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home – a measure of demand that may become actual home sales in the future, so a forward-looking indicator of home sales – dipped in the current survey week and remained near rock-bottom levels, down by 34% from the same week in 2019, according to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association today. That level of mortgage applications is below even the collapse of mortgage applications during the lockdown in the spring of 2020.

The average weekly mortgage rate for conforming 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 6.45% in the latest reporting week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today.

For the past 7 weeks, this measure of mortgage rates has been back in the middle of the 6-7% range, the range it has been in since September 2022, except for some breakouts to the upside.

These mortgage rates are not high in a historical context; they’re only high in the context of the Fed’s QE which started in 2009 and took on mega-proportions during the pandemic.

Under its QE programs, the Fed bought trillions of dollars of securities, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which repressed mortgage rates below 3%. But this massive amount of reckless money printing was part of the toxic mix at the time that triggered the worst inflation in 40 years. With mortgage rates below 3% and inflation at 9% – negative “real” mortgage rates, better than free money – home prices exploded and are now too high. And that inflation has refused to go back into the bottle.

Pending home sales for March – deals that were signed in March but haven’t closed yet – also remained at rock bottom, down by 30% from March 2019. In January, they’d dropped to a record low in the data by the National Association of Realtors going back to mid-2010, and in February and March, they inched up from that record low.

And the much-hyped spring selling season has turned into the fourth dud in a row: 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026.

Mortgage applications to refinance a home instantly react to even small changes in mortgage rates. A dip in mortgage rates unleashes homeowners like a coiled spring to refinance a mortgage at even a slightly lower rate. And when mortgage rates rise after that dip, demand re-fizzles. These dynamics have been repeated several times since mid-2024.

Refis do nothing for the housing market, though they’re crucial for the income of mortgage brokers and lenders. But they may have a positive impact on consumer spending when they lower the mortgage payments and leave borrowers more money to spend on other stuff; or when they’re cash-out refis, the proceeds of which might then be used to pay down more expensive debts, or might be used for spending projects.

The up-front fees to be paid by homeowners when they refinance a mortgage – typically 1% of the mortgage balance – are generally added to the loan amount where they’re largely out of sight but increase the payment, which reduces the advantage of lower mortgage rates.

Homeowners can do a breakeven analysis with online calculators or through brokers and mortgage lenders, to see if refinancing a mortgage is worth it. When mortgage rates briefly drop and the breakeven analysis tilts their way, they pull the trigger, thereby creating these curious spikes in refis.

But even these spikes in refis since mid-2024 were relatively low compared to the two-year refi boom from early 2020 through 2021 when the Fed’s QE repressed mortgage rates below 3%, and everyone and their dog refinanced into these low-rate mortgages.

And now they’re part of the “lock-in effect,” when these homeowners avoid buying a new home, and thereby selling their current home, because the new home’s much higher price would have to be financed at a much higher mortgage rate, and that math doesn’t work very well for many people. But life does happen. My analysis: Update on the “Lock-in Effect” in the Housing Market: Below-3% & 4% Mortgages Fade Very Slowly

This longer view demonstrates the inverse relationship between mortgage rates (blue) and applications to refinance a mortgage (red):

In case you missed it: New Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further amid Inventory Glut. But Lower Prices Beget Higher Sales

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 12:15

Soaring Death Toll In Lebanon As Full-Fledged Israel, Hezbollah Fighting Returns

Full-fledged war has returned to Lebanon as the government has announced that at least 23 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes on Saturday alone. 

Stretching back into Friday, this brings the total death count to at least 50 killed over the past 24 hours of Israeli bombings, also as Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) late on Saturday said rescue operations were still ongoing for bystanders missing underneath the rubble.

Illustrative prior image: Getty

Heavy bombing has not ceased in southern Lebanon, as the Israeli military says it's trying to root out and destroy Hezbollah, including raids on the districts of Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil and Sidon, among others. Several were also killed in Tyre on Friday.

But Israeli forces have also absorbed casualties, with The Times of Israel describing the following serious drone strikes launched from Lebanon:

On Saturday, the terror group launched several salvos of explosive-laden drones and rockets at Israeli forces. One drone struck Israeli territory, close to the border with Lebanon, seriously injuring a reservist soldier and moderately wounding a reservist officer and another reservist soldier.

The troops were taken to Galilee Medical Center, which said the seriously wounded soldier underwent surgery and was now stable in the intensive care unit. The moderately wounded troops were scheduled for surgery later.

In another incident, the military said an explosive drone struck an unmanned engineering vehicle in southern Lebanon, causing damage. No injuries were caused.

There are reports of the IDF issuing evacuation orders for various areas, only to attack the so-called safe zones. For example the below comes via Israeli sources:

"In light of the Hezbollah terror organization’s violations of the ceasefire agreement, the IDF is forced to act against it with force and does not intend to harm you," warned army spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee.

Meanwhile, Lebanese media reported that Israeli airstrikes on Saturday killed at least 12 people, including in areas where no evacuation orders were issued.

Starting in late April a 10-day ceasefire brokered by Washington took effect, even as Israeli forces remain deployed in a strip of Lebanese territory several miles deep along the border. That appears to be effectively collapsed, also as Israel has been upping its targeting of Beirut suburbs of late.

Israel calls the Lebanese strip of land now occupied by IDF troops a 'buffer zone' - but Lebanon sees it as a land grab. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and leader of the Amal Movement - which is the other big Shia organization in Lebanon - has recently stated that if Israel "maintains its occupation, whether of areas, positions, or by drawing yellow lines, it will smell the scent of resistance every day." He added: "If they insist on remaining, they will face resistance, and our history bears witness to that."

Israeli airstrikes on vehicles south of Beirut killed 4 people, while strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 13, state media and the Health Ministry said.

Iran war: https://t.co/GEBscM5Zz2 pic.twitter.com/6mHpjCkVis

— Sky News (@SkyNews) May 9, 2026

Lebanese officials have also charged Israel with trying to erase the Lebanese presence in southern Lebanon in a genocidal act, or 'cultural genocide'.

This after Israeli forces have carried out demolitions in southern villages, targeting what they describe as Hezbollah infrastructure embedded in civilian areas.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 11:40

Winning? Do We Need To Understand UBI

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Winning? Do We Need To Understand UBI

Iran (and the potential for a deal) has continued to move markets. As the 30-year bond rose above 5% earlier this week, we got news that we have a new approach to resolving the conflict – a one-page MOU. Markets (ex-oil) rallied around various “deal” headlines all week.

Spider, Bret, and I spent some time discussing this on Friday’s Podcast – The U.S. Proposal to End the War (also available on Spotify and iTunes).

Information continues to leak out in dribs and drabs about how those negotiations are doing. There continue to be conflicting messages. In the back of my mind, I’m increasingly forced to remember what we mentioned at the start of the conflict – Iran has never won a war but has never lost a negotiation.

There was a time when that statement didn’t seem likely to be reflective of this conflict. From “unconditional surrender” to various other metrics (especially surrounding nuclear weapons capabilities) we seem to be drifting to – let’s open the Strait and figure out the rest later?

The U.S. has displayed exceptionalism on every military task that it has been asked to undertake during this conflict. While we have had a limited presence in the Strait, our maritime efforts have been successful in accomplishing the missions that have been defined. Yes, Project Freedom was short lived. Not so much because the U.S. couldn’t deal with the threat (we successfully defended ourselves against Iranian missiles, drones, and small boats), but because it became pretty clear that not many commercial vessels were ready, under current circumstances, to risk challenging Iran.

We did argue, earlier in the week, that the admin’s assertion that Iran only has a few weeks before its economy collapsed, was underestimating the Iranians. They in all likelihood have prepared for this economic pressure and likely have significant IOUs with countries like China (and possibly even crypto holdings) to survive months not weeks. A regime that will shoot 40,000 or more citizens in a week for protesting is not going to be overly concerned with “standard of living” issues. Finally, all the “hype” around the fact that Iran’s ability to store oil is running out and this is causing them to shut the pumps (resulting in long-lasting damages) seemed “optimistic” at best. Iran has been decreasing the pressure, reducing the flow, and giving more leeway to when their reservoirs fill up. They also have the ability to just pump oil back onto the sand (and there are some reports of oil slicks in the Gulf). So, yes, if they left their facilities on full pressure, and were worried about “dumping” oil, it might be a week or two before irreparable damage is done. But they aren’t doing that. Also, according to many in the oil industry, other countries in the region are employing the same tactics. It isn’t just Iran that faces an inability to load oil onto transportation systems (pipelines or tankers). Much of the region faces similar challenges from the inability/unwillingness to transit the Strait.

A deal would be good, but a good deal would be better.

We discuss our views, options, and even highlight a couple of possibly great outcomes in the podcast (linked above), but we do seem to be drifting towards expediency rather than something more comprehensive.

I am still in the camp that the U.S. will once again become frustrated with Iran and launch another set of attacks, to truly push this conflict to a conclusion that leaves the world much safer.

Do We Need to Understand UBI?

With the release of some formerly classified information, I probably should be talking about UFOs, but somehow I’m here thinking about UBI. UBI or Universal Basic Income is a topic I haven’t paid much attention to.

It reminds me a bit of some other economic theories that I paid little attention to, without doing much damage to my work. 

• Mint the Coin was a movement “predicting” or “encouraging” the government to mint a trillion dollar coin to avert the debt ceiling. It would get some traction periodically and every once in a while made me wish I spent some time even thinking about this “absurd” (in my opinion) “solution” to our debt ceiling.
• Brexit. Yes, Brexit eventually happened, but it took so long to play out (as does everything in Europe including their “inevitable” adoption of ProSec ) that it was at best an undercurrent of markets, and I would argue (as someone who largely ignored it), not an undercurrent to the global economy. Important for the U.K. for sure, but I think I saved myself a lot of time and effort by largely ignoring it.

The point here is that I’ve been “dismissive” of any conversation around UBI. The concept has seemed anti-capitalist and almost “un-American.” The U.S. has “safety nets” of all sorts. Every “capitalist” country has their own version of “safety nets” – some more robust than others. UBI always seemed “a step too far,” especially in the U.S., but I cannot help thinking about it, as I struggle to digest the data this week – the “hard” data as well as the anecdotal data.

For the second month in a row, we had (at least on the surface) very strong job growth – Back to Back Dingers.

If the only piece of economic data I had was the Establishment survey of jobs, I’d be pretty pumped for the economy.

But that is NOT the only piece of data we have. There are so many ways I could express concern, that it would take too long to write, and would become repetitive, so I will stick to what some other people said recently. Here are “paraphrased” comments that caught my attention:

• Recession-level demand slump in North America. (Whirlpool)
• Consumer sentiment is certainly not improving, and it may be getting a little bit worse. (McDonald’s)
• Consumers are literally running out of money toward the end of the month. (Kraft Heinz)

There are many stocks we can look to, in order to gauge the state of the consumer. HD (Home Depot), for example, is almost 25% off of its high from last October. LOW (Lowe’s) is off 20% from its high set in February. That tells me there is something off with the consumer (rather than something company specific). If people are not spending money on home improvement, that indicates a lack of optimism from consumers.

Since I’m not a huge fan (or even a small fan) of the various CONsumer CONfidence surveys, I feel almost bad referencing it for the 2nd month in a row. Yes, it hit all-time lows, but that isn’t what caught my eye. Okay, it caught my eye, but everyone saw that. This is the chart from that survey that I find most interesting.

Here we get the responses from the Republicans for the University of Michigan Survey. It is 85. Far above the 48.2 headline number (which is the one that set a new record low). At 85 it is well above the lows during the Biden administration.

But this is the lowest Republican sentiment while President Trump has been in office.

That, to me, is important.

I have never understood how or why Republicans and Democrats would have such a different view of the economy. Maybe, if somehow, it was picking up differences in regional economies (areas where Republicans reside are booming, and vice versa), but it seems counterintuitive that the difference on economic outlook is so tied to party. Which is why I largely ignore this entire CONsumer CONfidence set of data, but the recent erosion in the chart makes me think twice.

AI versus Affordability

I really, really, want to bring up the line from Apocalypse Now – “Charlie Don’t Surf.” Maybe I’ve been spending too much time fixated on the war.

But I really want to write something along the lines of “AI Don’t Spend.” Or “one person’s expense, is another person’s revenue.”

So far any concerns about job losses due to AI don’t seem to be showing up in the jobs data. This is likely because:

• The buildout of AI requires a lot of hiring. Not just making the components necessary to run a data center (chips, cooling, electricity, etc.) but also the actual construction of the data centers and all the “picks and shovels” around data center construction.
• AI, in most cases, seems to have slowed hiring, rather accelerated the firing of employees. Attrition is playing the biggest role in adjusting headcount to offset AI spending (and productivity, to the extent it is being productive).

I’m stuck believing that the pressure on the consumer, so far, is primarily due to affordability, rather than job losses.

Concern about the future of jobs or pay may be influencing consumer sentiment and spending (I’m going to keep making T-Reports so confusing that AI cannot replicate them any time soon), but the bulk of the issue is affordability right now. What the heck will happen if job losses, especially due to AI, increase?

Let’s use some “water” analogies here (to try to link into the surf comment).

• A rising tide lifts all boats. This is the sort of economic growth we are all used to. Everything does better. It doesn’t really matter what you do, or where you are, you do better. This economy does not currently have that “vibe” to me.
• We see who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. Always a good one, but not sure how relevant it is to today’s economy. I think we are more about all boats not lifting, than we are about a tide going out.
• If the water is rising and you are anchored to the ground, you are in trouble. Okay, I just made that one up. But we’ve all seen it in movies.
• The water level is rising in a room, where the “hero” cannot get out. There is real fear. If there wasn’t some fear of this, Harry Houdini probably wouldn’t be as famous as he is.

I think this latter analogy may be the most apt:

• The water is rising (affordability). More and more people are getting sucked into the daily, weekly, monthly, and annual struggle of making ends meet. If we want to go down the “k”- shaped analogy, more and more of the k is underwater. Maybe it was only the lower leg of the k that was struggling, but as the water rises (affordability), more of the k is being covered. We may well be into the upper leg of the k. I guess we better hope that is a K rather than a k where the upper leg is long and goes high, but I’m concerned it is not (I still stick with the i-shaped economy, where a handful is doing extremely well and the rest of us are seeing the water rise).

On that pleasant note…

Bottom Line

Anyone with a job that can be disrupted by AI should own AI stocks as a “hedge.” I cannot tell if I’m being facetious or serious, but it is something to think about.

It is too early to spend a lot of time trying to understand how UBI would work, but I suspect we will start hearing more about this rather than less as affordability remains an issue. The issue will decline once we get a deal with Iran, but the affordability issue is not going away (I restrained myself from calling it a crisis, but…).

On credit, I continue to think credit will do fine and like owning private credit as marks seem to be adjusting to a new reality. More for a “trade” than being married to the position. I will get a detailed report out this week, as I am actually not on the road this week!

On rates, our more detailed analysis from last weekend’s Living in an AI World stands. Largely rangebound, with 4.35% to 4.4% as the middle of the range on 10s.

Continue to focus on ProSec themes, here and in Europe. If we get a deal, expect the admin to turn more attention to things like electricity production and the processing, refining, and smelting of commodities (as well as their extraction). A lot is being done in the background, but the President remains a key driver and while his attention has been diverted, we haven’t seen as much progress on ProSec as we’d like (away from domestic-focused chip manufacturing). That should change!

Thanks for everything and best wishes to all the moms out there! Hope you and your family and friends have an amazing day today! (Hopefully, every day is amazing, but today everyone should focus on the importance of family, more than the average day, where things like “work” get in the way).

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 11:05

Iran-Linked Media Floats Data Tax On Hormuz Undersea Internet Cables

An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked media outlet has signaled that submarine fiber-optic cables running through the Strait of Hormuz remain in Tehran’s crosshairs.

Tehran views Hormuz not only as an energy chokepoint but also as a digital chokepoint, with undersea cables beaming internet across the Gulf and into the global network.

Source: Retuers 

Tasnim published an article titled “Three Practical Steps for Generating Revenue from Strait of Hormuz Internet Cables,” pointing out that Tehran must reassess how it exercises sovereignty over the strategic maritime chokepoint.

Source: Retuers 

The IRGC-linked outlet said that submarine fiber-optic cables in the critical waterway facilitate more than $10 trillion in financial transactions each day, and claimed that Iran has been deprived of the economic and sovereign benefits tied to the digital economy.

Source: Retuers 

Tasnim warned that any disruption, cut, or damage to these cables, whether from natural causes or ship anchors, could impose heavy losses on the world's economy.

"These cables, which are laid on the seabed using advanced technologies such as DWDM and double-armored standards, carry the bulk of international internet traffic, cloud synchronization, enterprise virtual private networks, voice traffic, and financial-payment networks. From the perspective of the digital economy, any disruption, outage, or damage to these communications highways, whether from natural incidents or ship anchors, can cause irreparable losses," the outlet stated.

Tasnim lists three steps for how Iran should begin imposing fees on internet traffic routed through Hormuz:

1. Licensing and tolls: Iran should require telecom consortia and cable operators to obtain permits for laying and operating cables through the strait, with initial licensing fees and annual renewal payments.

2. Iranian legal jurisdiction over tech firms: Major technology companies using the cables, including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, should be required to operate officially under Iranian law and cooperate with Iranian technology firms, knowledge-based companies, and media entities.

3. Iranian control over maintenance and repair: Iran should develop the technical infrastructure to control or participate in the maintenance and repair of the cables, turning cable servicing into both a revenue stream and a sovereignty tool.

Beyond the quest to charge data fees, Tehran has already imposed fees or tolls on vessels passing through the strait.

Last week, Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority pushed forward with a new protocol for commercial vessels transiting the strait. It’s unclear whether the protocol will incur a fee.

However, Iranians have made "demands for payments, payments for toll fees, as we say, for those vessels to be granted permission to sail," Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk consultancy Marisks, told CNN.

The direct result of Tehran’s attempt to position itself as the gatekeeper of the Hormuz chokepoint, across energy, freight, and potentially digital traffic, will be to accelerate global efforts to bypass the strait. That means rerouting pipelines, tanker traffic, commercial shipping, and eventually undersea cable infrastructure away from Iran’s strait.

That effort has already started:

• World Starts To "Build" Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines

.  . .

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 09:55

What Would Be Truly Bullish? Actually Fixing What's Broken

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds,

We've come to an interesting juncture in history, interesting because while we're being assured that AI will solve all problems, including any it creates, back in the real world, AI is incapable of fixing what's broken because too many people are getting rich off the status quo, and since the status quo is the problem, those who own / control AI will use it to maintain the status quo, guaranteeing that what's broken spirals into irreversible breakdown.

Richard Bonugli and I discuss what's fatally broken in a new podcast on what it will take to become Bullish (32 min).

Let's start with what's "obvious": letting what's broken fester until it implodes the status quo is not bullish, and neither is substituting delusion and denial for a realistic appraisal of what's actually broken--the essential observe and orient steps in the OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, act).

I've often described the two dynamics that are broken that AI can't fix because those who own / control AI are using it to increase the asymmetrical distribution of wealth and income that are the source of breakdown. Consider healthcare. Everyone except the managers / owners / shareholders of healthcare / pharma cartels agrees healthcare is fundamentally broken and is bankrupting households, employers and the government / nation.

Those profiteering off the status quo healthcare system claim AI is going to reduce costs. They fail to mention this won't reduce the price, it will only serve to increase their profits. Cut costs by replacing human labor with AI tools, yea, we reap even higher profits. Nobody is claiming healthcare will magically become affordable because a truly affordable healthcare system wouldn't be as profitable because it wouldn't be as open to exploitation, fraud, profiteering, extraction and parasitic pricing.

In the same way, AI can't solve the other fatal dynamic--widening wealth and income asymmetry--because it's widening the asymmetry to new extremes. The owners of AI are reaping vast fortunes while stripmining resources to run their AI data centers and laying off wage earners. Rather than fixing what's broken in America, AI is accelerating the endgame of what's broken.

Let's run through why increasing numbers of online comments suggest burning the whole rotten healthcare system down and starting over. Healthcare insurance--which often turn out to be a profitable facsimile of actual insurance--has more than doubled beyond the official rate of inflation. If healthcare insurance had tracked inflation, it would cost $10,000 a year for family coverage in 2026. Instead, it costs $25,000+ annually.

Diagnosis: broken.

Regardless of how you toy with statistics, the reality is administrative costs / bloat / profiteering have soared. Diagnosis: broken.

Meanwhile, back in reality, rapidly aging populations are far from their peak demand for healthcare services. Check out the white line on this chart (courtesy of @econimica) of those aged 65+. While births collapse and the workforce is pressured by AI and the soaring cost of living, millions of elderly retirees are being added to the Medicare beneficiary pool. Diagnosis: broken.

Here is the chart of Medicare costs: parabolic. It's nice we can borrow a few trillion every year, but can we borrow $5 trillion or more every year with no consequence? Diagnosis: broken.

Here is the chart of Medicaid costs: parabolic. Diagnosis: broken.

As for the health of the general populace: it's been declining for two generations as our diet has shifted from real food made at home to ultra-processed goo and fitness has bifurcated into a thin layer of extreme fitness and a majority of the populace burdened with the complex ill health of poor diets, poor fitness and metabolic disorders.

Weight of the populace in 1985:

Weight of the populace in 2023:

Yes, now we have GLP-1 drugs that reduce weight and the diseases related to weight, but these drugs have side effects in many patients and they must be taken for life. Once the patient stops taking them, the weight returns.

Drugs that must be taken for life are not a substitute for being healthy. Healthy = not needing any medications.

Diagnosis of the healthcare system: broken. Prognosis: bifurcation: the rich will get "the finest care in the world," and everyone else will be in a queue or denied care--basically the same result--or offered extraordinarily profitable meds and a spectrum of side effects.

What's broken is the entire financial-economic system that distributes the pain and the gain: the pain of sharply higher costs of living and increasing financial precarity is distributed to the bottom 80% while the gains are distributed to the top 10%, with a dribble going to the cohort between 81% and 90% who own enough capital to support their claim to being "middle class."

Note to America's elites: when only the top 15% just below the top 5% qualifies as "middle class," that's not a middle class. I know, you don't concern yourselves with such trivia: there are trillions of dollars to be reaped "solving problems" with AI.

The "problem" you can't solve with AI is AI only "solves" the "problem" you see, which is how to increase your wealth and income before the bottom 80% awaken from the 24/7-hyped delusion that credit-asset bubbles (AI!) raise all boats and will continue to do so forever and ever.

Real life has diverged from that delusion, and the radioactive power of AI to extend that delusion has a short half-life. Refusing to recognize, much less actually fix, what's broken hurries our collective rendezvous with consequences.

What would be bullish is actually fixing what's broken. Promoting self-serving illusory "solutions" that only widen the asymmetries stretching the socio-economic fabric to the breaking point is not bullish.

New podcast: what it will take to become Bullish (32 min).

My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 09:20

Housing Cost Pressure Varies Widely Across The EU

Housing affordability in the EU has an uneven spread across the continent according to data from Eurostat.

As Statista's Jack Lillis details below, the share of people whose housing costs exceed 40% of disposable income ranges from as low as 2.4% in Cyprus to as high as 28.9% in Greece.

The EU 27 average stands at 8.2%, but this figure masks significant disparities between countries.

You will find more infographics at Statista

After Greece, Turkey appears among the most heavily burdened, while countries like Finland, Sweden, and France sit at the lighter end of the scale, suggesting considerably lower housing cost pressure on their populations.

The disparities carry real implications for labor mobility and quality of life.

In countries where housing consumes a disproportionate share of income workers in lower-wage sectors, such as the hospitality industry, could face particularly acute pressure.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/10/2026 - 08:45