"Massive Concession": LA Registrar Admits It Has No Way To Check Citizenship Of 20,000 Flagged Voters

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Los Angeles County election officials admitted in a federal court filing Tuesday that they have no independent way to verify voter citizenship beyond the voter's own attestation. The intensifying case, which was initially assigned to a Trump-appointed judge, was transferred to a Clinton-appointed judge on Wednesday.

Assistant Registrar Monica Flores stated the office is "not equipped or authorized" to verify citizenship because it does not independently house immigration, travel, or naturalization records.

First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli called this a "massive concession" in a statement on X, pointing out that Under federal law, only citizens may vote.

"Yet California has not acted on the list of 20,000 suspected noncitizens or agreed to set aside their ballots," Essayli wrote. "American citizens' votes are being diluted in California."

Governor Gavin Newsom's press office (D.) countered on X that California has complied with the 1993 National Voter Registration Act, which permits reliance on sworn voter statements rather than independent documentary verification.

"18 U.S.C. § 611: It shall be unlawful for any alien to vote in any election held solely or in part for the purpose of electing a candidate for federal office," Essayli posted in response. "18 U.S.C. § 2: Whoever commits an offense against the United States or aids, abets, counsels, commands, induces or procures its commission is punishable as a principal."

The Justice Department sued California last week, demanding the state segregate those 20,000 ballots pending verification.

Federal agents arrested more than two dozen foreign nationals across California on Monday, for fraudulently registering and voting in U.S. elections.

The 28 suspects were charged with a combination of illegal voting, making a false claim of U.S. citizenship in order to vote, and "knowingly depriving the residents of California of a fair and impartial election process," Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter told reporters at a news conference in Los Angeles.

Essayli suggested on X that the 28 arrested on Monday were just the beginning. "This does not mean the other 19,972 are lawful voters."

"The arrests prove our list is accurate and that noncitizens are actually voting. Our goal is to prevent California from counting the ballots of noncitizens, not to arrest all 20k on the list," he added.

Newsom and the state's Democrat election officials dispute the scale of the problem and characterize the federal intervention as an attempt to bully and suppress voters ahead of the November 3 midterm election.

In a major setback for the Trump administration, the federal judge overseeing United States v. State of California was transferred Wednesday from Judge John W. Holcomb, a Trump appointee, to Judge David Carter, a Clinton appointee who dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit against California last year that accused the state of not following federal laws on proper maintenance of voter rolls.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 11:45

"Everyone Has Blown Up": London Macro Traders Carried-Out As French Carry Trade Implodes (Again)

For the better part of three years, the hottest seat in London's multi-manager world was a European rates book: lever up French OATs in repo, clip the carry, collect the seven-figure payout. This month, the French bond market sent the bill.

According to a must-read report from eFinancialCareers' Sarah Butcher, London's macro hedge funds are quietly emptying out their EGB desks. Funds aren't talking about performance, but headhunters and bank traders who have been keeping score say the count of ejected European rates PMs and traders has climbed from the mid-70s a few weeks ago to close to 100 people. One senior trader at a liquidity provider summed it up in four words: "Everyone has blown up... they are all out"

In other words, the most crowded trade in European fixed income just found out what happens when the collateral is the problem.

And the bleeding hasn't stopped. This morning Bloomberg flashed that the French bond risk gauge is nearing 160bps, a fresh 15-year high, while French 10Y yields hit 5% for the first time since July 2002.

Below we walk through what blew up, why it blew up (twice), what Goldman, Morgan Stanley and the rest of the Street make of it, and why the market's attention is already drifting to the next domino: Italy.

The Trade: Borrow Against France, Pocket The Difference

The mechanics were simple enough to fit on a Post-it. Funds bought French government bonds, financed them in the repo market using those same OATs as collateral, and pocketed the gap between the bond's yield and the repo cost. Lever it up enough times and a few basis points of carry becomes a career. Per eFC, as French yields rose amid political chaos, OATs sold off and the whole highly leveraged structure was turned upside down.

A bank trader watching from the sidelines was less charitable:

"These people weren't even real portfolio managers," claims one senior trader, watching from the sidelines in a London bank.

"They were just using EGBs as a carry asset. Buying bonds, sitting on the carry and getting a percentage cut. It was fun for a while. You had a lot of PMs who were long France and long Italy, but with inflation coming in and rates high, it wasn't going to last."

Another PM in the sector offered a more philosophical take: "every bubble gets its moment."

The wider version of the trade, as Bloomberg reported on Oct 2, was the OAT asset-swap: funds such as Balyasny had built positions to harvest the spread between French yields and interest-rate swaps. Those were lucrative right up until the budget blowup of Oct 1, when the trades flipped from winners to liabilities and everyone hit the exit at once. RBC BlueBay's Kaspar Hense told Bloomberg what that looked like from the inside:

"Most typical hedge-fund strategies are in risk reduction mode. There have also been stop-loss levels triggered, partly on the steepener trades and now on long France trades." (emphasis ours)
— Kaspar Hense, RBC BlueBay Asset Management, via Bloomberg

Fidelity International's fixed income CIO Marion Le Morhedec went further, estimating that hedge fund activity could explain roughly half of the recent moves in the French-German spread, pointing to particularly heavy Eurex activity. Turns out the "liquidity providers" were also the liquidity takers.

Regular readers will recall that we called this one in real time on the very first day of the month:

it's been a while since we had a European sovereign debt crisis

*FRANCE-GERMANY 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD WIDENS 8BPS TO 135BPS

France CDS widest in 13 years

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 1, 2026

...which was followed hours later by "Debt Crisis Back? European Bond Markets Crash, CDS Explode Amid France Budget Panic Contagion" (Oct 1). By the next day, the OAT-Bund spread hit 154bps, the widest since 2011, and the deleveraging was in full swing.

Same Trade, Same Crowd, Same Exit Door

The most damning detail in the eFC piece: according to the liquidity-provider trader, many of the PMs who blew up this month had already blown up in March, on the same positions. That was when the Iran war and the Hormuz shock triggered the first great European rates unwind, and when, per Bloomberg, multi-strats from Millennium to Balyasny to ExodusPoint gave back some or all of their year-to-date gains as crowded trades unwound.

Seven months apart, the same book got carried out twice. Diversification at its finest.

"They've blown up twice on the same trades."

Another trader observes that a lot of funds moved into the European fixed income space in the belief that it was easy money:

"The whole European carry system is now being questioned."

You can see both episodes in Goldman's own long-OAT/short-Bund rolling futures basket, which the bank's Systematic Trading Strategies desk circulated to clients: a steady grind higher for three years, a wobble in March, and then a near-vertical collapse that has wiped out roughly five years of gains as the basket fell from a February peak of ~104.3 to ~99.2.

Goldman's STS desk described the October contagion mechanism in that same note (available to pro subs here):

OATs have come roaring back into market focus over the last month. Where an unwind of popular rates positions following the latest ECB meeting (mostly steepeners), seemed to spread to wider carry trades in the rates space among a bid for volatility. A weak starting position for France with regards to debt and fiscal background and uncertainty into next year's election as well as challenging budget process didn't help. (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs STS, Tim Huiszoon, Oct 12

Translation: the steepener crowd got stopped out first, then the losses bled into every other levered carry position on the same risk books. Not a fundamental repricing so much as a margin call with a French accent.

Allianz Trade agrees, noting in an Oct 9 report that speculative shorts, hedge-fund asset-swap unwinds and thin liquidity created a negative loop, with market depth more than 50% below normal:

"The speed reflects a positioning shock, not a pure repricing of fundamentals. Long-term investors are sitting out ahead of the elections... Fragmentation is far from 2012 or 2020 levels, but the ingredients are in place." (emphasis ours)
— Allianz Trade, "Toasted, not burnt", Oct 9

Note the second sentence: the real money that would normally buy the dip is sitting on its hands until the election. Which leaves... nobody.

The Plumbing Problem Nobody Wanted To Talk About

It's not just about P&L. Hedge funds have stepped in as the marginal provider of liquidity in European sovereigns precisely as central banks, pensions and banks stepped back. Per Bank of France data cited by Reuters, French government debt accounts for roughly €100 billion of the €250 billion in euro-area sovereign bonds pledged as repo collateral. In other words, France is the euro repo market.

So far the repo market itself has held up, but the risk is obvious: a further ratings cut narrows the pool of institutions able (or willing) to take OATs as collateral, which raises funding costs, which forces more selling. Commerzbank flagged exactly this back in September after Fitch's downgrade:

"...once a second agency downgrades to single-A, OAT repos may cheapen visibly, similar to BTPs, where more than half of bonds already trade above the depo rate." (emphasis ours)
— Commerzbank, via MNI, Sep 16

With Moody's reviewing France on Friday, that is not exactly a theoretical concern. And as we noted when the sell-side spent a day insisting the OAT rout was "just positioning," the contagion had already jumped to the banks, with the selloff reactivating Europe's "doom loop" (Oct 7). Goldman's European financials desk is still hiding under the desk:

"We are staying in risk off mode on banks (topics remains Euro sovereign crisis fear + Rates + Competition + Agentic, ie peak ROTE)... Appetite for French banks is very low given how long it will take to have some clarity." (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs EU Financials specialist sales, Oct 20

"Overshot Fundamentals"... Says Goldman (Two Weeks Ago)

To be fair to Goldman, the bank has been leaning against the panic. Its strategists argued earlier this month that the OAT selloff appeared to have overshot fundamentals, amplified by positioning, though they conceded France is cheap relative to peers but lacks a catalyst. GS's STS desk went further on Oct 12, flagging GIR's expectation that the spread stabilizes at tighter levels and pitching a 1-year principal-protected option on OATs vs Bunds as a reversal trade with the 10Y spread at ~135bps.

The market had other plans. After weekend riots across France (nearly 2,400 arrests), the spread widened another 8bps to ~145bps on Monday, per Goldman's Daily Monitor, which ran this as its chart of the day: the OAT-Bund spread (inverted) dragging the euro down with it.

Goldman's FX desk confirmed the hedge funds were already heading for the exits:

"EUR option volumes – which have been an key indicator for broader portfolio hedges – have also decreased and are more than 30% off the highs. Certainly, a lot of hedges have been put on already and broad de-risking across popular positions was a hallmark of last week's activity." (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs FX desk, Oct 19

Bloomberg's Vassilis Karamanis reads the same options market more darkly: the premium for longer-dated euro downside now exceeds short-dated, suggesting the euro's weakness "reflects more than a positioning adjustment." So much for "just positioning."

By Monday's close, French 10Y yields had posted their highest close since 2002 (Oct 20), and on Tuesday the spread hit a 156bps peak:

French bonds getting smashed: OAT-Bund spread back to crisis wides.

Expect ECB monetization demands to return

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 20, 2026

And this morning the milestone everyone was waiting for finally printed: per Bloomberg, French 10Y yields hit 5% for the first time since July 2002, with the OAT-Bund spread out another 5bps to 158bps as Brent traded above $110. So much for stabilizing at tighter levels.

Goldman's own economists, meanwhile, aren't buying the government's numbers either. In Tuesday's European Daily, Alexandre Stott writes:

"Recent protests over school underfunding and cost-of-living pressures have been among the largest since the pension reform strikes of 2019 and 2023 and the 'yellow vests' movement of 2018... we remain sceptical that the government will meet its deficit target of 5.0% of GDP next year... Our poll-based model therefore continues to see Le Pen as the clear favourite to become President next year." (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs, European Daily: France—Budget Adoption Likely Later This Year, Oct 20

Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth Carpenter, whose note we published on Oct 11, is just as blunt about the arithmetic, and about the cavalry:

At wider than 150bps, the 30yr OAT-Bund spread surpassed the 130bp mark reached in the euro area debt crisis a decade ago... Debt stabilization would require a primary surplus of roughly 2% of GDP, a turnaround of about 5 percentage points. That shift would be larger than the adjustment required in Italy in the early 2010s... We think the bar for direct ECB intervention is very high, but France may not be the last test. (emphasis ours)
— Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, Sunday Start

Put differently: the ECB is not coming to rescue anyone's carry book, and certainly not before Paris finds a fiscal squeeze bigger than the one Rome needed in 2011. Good luck with that during riots. Bill Blain, for his part, awarded a "No Sh*t Sherlock" prize to anyone who spotted European yields spiking after the riots, warning in Tuesday's Morning Porridge that the unrest could "metastasise into a potential bond crisis unless the ECB can swiftly demonstrate it is able, willing and stands ready to intervene."

Where Do 100 Ejected Rates Traders Go?

The career fallout is where the eFC report gets really fun. Some will drift back to the banks, where one headhunter said dealers need them to manage ECB exposure and bond books. The catch, per a bank trader: these PMs were pulling in $1 million-plus, a number that at a bank you only see as a desk head. Many are also tied up in non-competes, and some are still collecting guarantees and in no rush to find work. Good news for the departed PMs; allocators may see it differently.

Not everyone was pushed: one source estimated roughly 10% left voluntarily, some to raise their own funds, because allocators are struggling to find people both willing and able to take risk. Which is one way of describing a market where everyone who took risk just got carried out.

More ominous is the verdict from the trading floors: one trader told eFC that funds piled into European fixed income believing it was easy money, and that the whole European carry system is now being questioned. A bank trader called it systemic. And per the headhunter, the big fear now is that Italian BTP spreads go the way of OATs, a risk Morgan Stanley also flags, noting that wider OAT spreads are already putting pressure on BTPs.

Bottom Line

Goldman's bet is that this was a positioning flush: the levered carry crowd got shaken out, the forced selling is largely done, and spreads should drift back in. Maybe. But consider what has happened since the "overshoot" call: riots, a 5% 10Y, a spread nearing 160bps, a Moody's review on Friday, and a presidential race where Le Pen polls at 34%-38% in the first round. The forced sellers may be gone, but the natural buyers never came back, and the marginal bid in OATs for the past three years was a levered London pod that is now on gardening leave.

And this was never just about politics. Since the Hormuz crisis began, France has underperformed every major bond market, Italy included:

Which is why we lean toward the skeptics: this isn't the end of a positioning unwind, it's the beginning of a regime where France trades like the periphery, and where Italy, with the same crowd long it on the same leverage, is next in line. When the people who spent three years harvesting European carry are now warning that the asset class may never look the same, it's probably worth listening. Expect the ECB monetization chorus to get a lot louder. We'll check back after Friday's Moody's decision.

Much more in the full Goldman GS European Daily "France - Budget Adoption Likely Later This Year" note, both available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 10:40

French Police Identify Antifa As The "Ideologically Distinct Group" Behind The Riots Despite Democratic Denials

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

Years ago, I called Antifa the Keyser Söze of the left, after the character in "The Usual Suspects." In the film, the character Virgil explains how Söze stayed in the shadows to be portrayed as a myth: "becomes a myth, a spook story that criminals tell their kids at night." The strategy was too simple: "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist."

Democratic leaders have long fostered the myth around Antifa, the largest and most violent group on the political left. For years, they have denied the existence of the group even as members were charged with crimes (including terrorism). Now, the French authorities have found that the nonexistent group is the largest of three "ideologically distinct groups" responsible for the violence in France. It appears that either the entire French security system is delusional or the trick is up for the American left.

I have testified before Congress about Antifa, run columns on the organization for over a decade, and written a book discussing Antifa. Yet, Democratic members continued to insist that there is no such group, while other leading Democrats have praised Antifa for instilling fear in MAGA.

It was a curious claim even then, when other Democratic leaders were actively pandering to the violent group.

Former Democratic National Committee deputy chair Keith Ellison - now the Minnesota attorney general - proclaimed that Antifa would "strike fear in the heart" of Trump. His own son, Minneapolis City Council member Jeremiah Ellison, declared his allegiance to Antifa in the heat of the protests this summer.

However, Democratic leaders and pundits have repeated the mantra that there is no such group despite political violence on the left spreading across the country.

Rep. Dan Goldman (D., N.Y.) dared anyone to name a single member of Antifa despite the charging of Antifa members with various serious crimes.

Former House Judiciary Chair Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) was widely ridiculed for denying the existence of Antifa.

Others on the left have joined Goldman in this absurd claim. Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel devoted part of his monologue to assuring viewers that Antifa is no more than a mythical "chupacabra." "You understand there is no Antifa," he said. "This is an entirely made-up organization."

The denials continued even as FBI Director Christopher Wray debunked deniers like Goldman. "Antifa is a real thing." European countries have banned Antifa site due to their criminal conduct while Antifa candidates have been elected to office as members of the group.

Now, French authorities identified Antifa as the largest of three "ideologically distinct groups" responsible for the violence in France. It appears that Keyser Söze is in the open, but Democrats maintain the FBI, Justice Department, and various countries are simply delusional.

The problem is when the myth becomes reality. Left-wing pundits and politicians are caught in this denial web where they have to maintain the absurd idea that Antifa is just an idea.

Some of us have been writing about Antifa for years after watching them intimidate and threaten faculty and students on campuses. One such student came from my campus and proclaimed that Antifa was winning after his arrest for property destruction.

When another radical was arrested after taking an axe to a congressional office, he self-identified as a member of Antifa.

Before Kyle Benjamin Douglas Calvert, 26, implanted an IED device outside of Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall's office in downtown Montgomery, he put up stickers reading "support your local Antifa."

Numerous Antifa members have been arrested, including some who claimed to be journalists.

Many protesters belong to Antifa groups that have names like "Rose City Antifa" and offshoots like Love and Rage and Mexico's Amor Y Rabia. Antifa members have been elected to the French and European parliaments.

Rutgers Professor Mark Bray's "Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook," called by some the "Antifa bible," explains that the group is united in its opposition to free speech. "Most Americans in Antifa have been anarchists or antiauthoritarian communists," he writes. "From that standpoint, 'free speech' as such is merely a bourgeois fantasy unworthy of consideration."

Yet, Democratic leaders seemed to be adopting the 1967 'Guide for the Married Man' when caught with Antifa allies or associations:

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 10:15

FCC Chair Warns Broadcasters On Airing Fake Polls

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr warned on Oct. 21 that broadcasters could violate their federal license obligations by airing fabricated polls or polls designed to disrupt elections and manipulate voter behavior.

Carr's statement comes just before the Nov.3 midterm congressional elections.

"During this election season, there has been a significant surge in entirely Fake Polls and Suppression Polls designed to do nothing more than interfere with the regular functioning of the electoral process and alter the normal patterns of voter turnout and enthusiasm," Carr posted on X.

He added that "many journalists and broadcasters have been amplifying or airing these Polls without regard to basic journalistic ethics and without informing the public that those Polls lack a scientific, accurate, or even real basis."

Carr said the commission takes these issues seriously.

"Broadcasters are prohibited by the terms of their federal licenses from engaging in News Distortion or promoting Broadcast Hoaxes. It is important that broadcasters comply with their public interest obligations. After all, the country benefits greatly when Americans can trust and rely on the media to report the news fairly and accurately," he said.

He advised broadcasters "to avoid engaging in News Distortions or running Broadcast Hoaxes by airing Polls that would violate their regulatory obligations." If they believe additional context is needed for polls already covered, he said "they can now take those actions consistent with FCC regulations."

His comments came less than two weeks before the November midterm congressional elections.

Carr did not name specific polls or outlets, but one day prior, a group called Wedgewood Polling said it had fabricated data in an experiment testing media scrutiny of polling.

Wedgewood Polling said in a statement on Oct. 20 that it was developed by people who previously worked in the poll sector and wondered how easy it would be for a fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and "expose how little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary."

The entity said that its surveys often did not have any real data behind them, but they were nonetheless included in poll averages by The New York Times and some other outlets.

Carr's Enforcement Approach

Carr has previously invoked the same public-interest standard when addressing broadcasters' programming.

On March 14, he threatened to strip U.S. broadcasters of their licenses over what he called false reporting on the ongoing war with Iran. "The law is clear," he said. "Broadcasters must operate in the public interest, and they will lose their licenses if they do not."

In January, Carr addressed equal-time obligations for late-night and daytime programs.

"For years, legacy TV networks assumed that their late night and daytime talk shows qualify as 'bona fide news' programs - even when motivated by purely partisan political purposes," he stated on X at the time. "Today, the FCC reminded them of their obligation to provide all candidates with equal opportunities."

Actions on Broadcast Content

Carr has also revived complaints involving election coverage and spoken about networks' responsibilities regarding programming that he said did not serve the public interest.

In January 2025, he reinstated complaints against stations affiliated with major broadcasters over their coverage of the prior presidential election.

He has stated that licensed broadcasters operate under different rules than other media because they use public airwaves.

"They have a license granted by us, the FCC, that comes with an obligation to operate in the public interest," Carr said at the time.

The FCC's authority over news content is limited. The agency states that news distortion enforcement requires deliberate distortion of a factual report, not expressions of opinion or errors from mistakes.

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 10:15

Meta Ordered To Pay New Mexico $25 Billion Over Misleading Privacy Claims

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A Santa Fe judge on Wednesday ordered Meta Platforms to pay New Mexico $25 billion after a jury found the company committed 43.9 million violations of state consumer-protection law by making misleading statements about Facebook users' data privacy and control.

The case, filed in 2021, grew out of the Cambridge Analytica scandal. New Mexico alleged that Facebook, now Meta, systematically misled the public - and New Mexico users - about how it handled personal data and allowed third-party apps access to users' information, including statements by senior executives such as CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

A jury on Sept. 25 sided with the state, finding 26 of 29 public statements by Facebook to be misleading and treating each as reaching large numbers of New Mexico Facebook users, producing a total of almost 43.9 million violations.

Under New Mexico's Unfair Practices Act, the maximum penalty is $5,000 per willful violation. Judge Francis J. Mathew of New Mexico's First Judicial District Court imposed the statutory maximum (roughly $219.5 billion) but reduced the award to $25 billion. Interest accrues at 15 percent annually until paid. Meta has said it will appeal.

"Facebook's wrongdoing - over the course of years and systematically broadcast to the public - goes to the heart of Facebook's core business practices," Mathew wrote in his order.

The jury's findings covered Facebook's statements on data practices, as well as its handling of hate speech, misinformation, and exceptions to platform rules.

"This is a historic day for New Mexico and for consumers across the country," Attorney General Raúl Torrez said in a statement. "A New Mexico jury found nearly 44 million violations of our consumer protection statute, and this penalty order demonstrates that those violations carry real consequences."

Meta did not immediately return a request for comment by The Epoch Times, but its chief legal officer, C.J. Mahoney, told Reuters the company is confident it will prevail on appeal.

"This ruling, and the Attorney General's approach to this enforcement, makes it all but impossible to do business in the state of New Mexico. At its core, this lawsuit seeks to impose a tax on speech to enforce new rules for what people can say online," Mahoney said.

In the Cambridge Analytica scandal, the now-defunct British political consulting firm obtained personal information from as many as 87 million Facebook users and used the data for political profiling and targeted advertising. New Mexico alleged that Facebook misled users about third-party access to their data and the degree of control users actually had, and that after the Cambridge Analytica event the company's statements about investigations, audits, bans, and user notifications were also misleading.

This is Meta's second major courtroom loss in New Mexico this year.

In a separate case involving the safety of young users, a jury in March imposed $375 million in civil penalties on the company. On Aug. 6, a judge ordered Meta to pay an additional $567 million into a fund for youth mental-health remedies and imposed court-supervised changes to Facebook and Instagram, bringing the total financial exposure in that case to $942 million.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 09:45

"Lost Its Mojo": Wolfe Downgrades Netflix As Billions In Content Spending Fails To Deliver Hits

Wolfe Research downgraded Netflix early Thursday, warning that "bears are winning the engagement debate" and that the subscription-based streaming service "has lost its mojo."

"Engagement failed to respond to rising investment, and last week's content leadership changes convince us that solutions require patience & lower incremental margins. Attention economy competition is rampant. Consensus estimates look fair," analyst Peter Supino wrote in a note on Thursday morning.

Supino estimates that engagement in the US and Canada was flat to down in the first half of 2026, even as programming investment increased. YouTube continues to gain television viewing share, while competitors including Amazon, Apple, Disney and HBO are increasing spending.

"Despite $3B of content expense growth over the last 2 years, Netflix has lost its mojo. YouTube keeps gaining TV share," the analyst wrote.

The lack of major new hits is a key driver of Netflix's stalled subscriber growth. Aside from the final season of Stranger Things, Supino said the streaming platform has struggled to sustain viewership growth for its biggest shows and films.

Last week, chief content officer Bela Bajaria was abruptly booted and will be replaced later this month by veteran entertainment executive Peter Rice in hopes of delivering content that subscribers actually want to watch.

Netflix has transformed into a woke programming operation for kids...

Back to Supino: he noted that Netflix's valuation of about 17.5 times projected 2027 earnings makes shares look relatively inexpensive for a streaming platform expected to deliver double-digit revenue growth. However, he sees limited upside at this point unless Netflix can deliver global hits. 

He also lowered his 2027 revenue forecast to $56.27 billion from $56.68 billion, implying 10.1% growth. He lowered his earnings estimate to $3.67 a share from $3.73.

Supino lowered his rating on the stock from "Outperform" to "Peer Perform" and removed his $95 price target. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg have 45 "Buy" ratings, 18 "Hold" ratings, and just two "Sell" ratings.

The average 12-month price target among analysts tracked by Bloomberg is about $85 a share.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 09:00

Jobless Claims Near 60-Year Lows Amid 'Low-Hire, Low Fire, Low-Inspire' Economy

The number of American filing for unemployment benefits for the first time dropped (again) last week to 194k - basically in line with 60 year lows...

Michigan saw the largest rise in initial claims last week while Ohio and Tennessee saw the biggest decline...

Continuing Claims ticked up but remains very close to 3 year lows...

The cleanest way to reconcile it is that this is a "low-fire, low-hire” labor market, with employers hoarding labor, not shedding it.

Of course, claims remain a poor gauge of how hard it is to get hired, since new entrants, re-entrants, and gig workers mostly can’t file.

Low firing plus low hiring means insiders feel secure while anyone outside the job market is stuck.

Of course, sentiment remains disastrously low, but we'd argue it’s mostly a prices story wearing a jobs costume (impacted by political bias within the polling).

The bottom line is that claims tell you a recession isn’t imminent, payrolls tell you momentum is fading, and sentiment tells you the median household is getting squeezed by prices rather than layoffs.

The risk is that this equilibrium breaks non-linearly: low-hire markets can flip to firing quickly once margins compress, and claims would be the last of the three to flag it, not the first.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 08:36

Futures Slide As Market Runs Out Of AI Patience, Oil Jumps On Saudi Attacks

US futures are lower as the AI trade discovered that there is no right answer on capex: Meta spent more, Tesla spent less, and the market slammed both (after an initial kneejerk bounce), while a fresh wave of deadly attacks on Saudi Arabia, a US-ordered departure of diplomats from the kingdom and an NYT report that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms sent Brent back above $112; as a result the flight to quality is back on, with 10Y yields sliding 9bps to 5.03% even as oil jumps and French bond yields soar. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 1.0% lower at 7,720.75 while Nasdaq futures are down 1.7% at 29,507.50 and Dow futures are 0.6% lower. Wednesday's session closed near its highs, with the S&P rising 0.6% to 7,757 for a third straight gain and closing within 1% of its record high, as the SpaceX blowout revived the AI trade. In premarket trading, all Mag 7 names are red led by Tesla, which drops 4.4% after cutting its 2026 capex target to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion, while Meta reversed an after-hours gain of as much as 5% to trade down about 1.5% as investors focused on its hedged 2027 spending commentary (as we noted last night, the stock erased most of its gains after the CFO warned "significant investment" will raise serving costs); Lam Research tumbles 8% on a soft forecast, dragging chipmakers including AMD, Broadcom and Intel. The day's driver is oil (again): Brent rose as much as 3.3% to $112.43 and WTI briefly topped $100 after two attacks on an Aramco oil field and an airport in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province killed at least three people, Aramco told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters, and the IRGC Navy warned US bases could be targeted if Washington keeps "encouraging" ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Treasuries are bid across the curve in a bull steepener as AI doubts and another spike in French yields drive a haven bid; the OAT-Bund spread blew out by as much as 18bps to 177bps, the widest since 2011. The yen and Swiss franc lead G10 FX, with EUR/JPY at the lowest in almost a year, while the Bloomberg dollar index is little changed. Gold is down 1.3% near $4,085 and silver is down more than 3%, refusing to play haven, copper slides with the AI trade, and Bitcoin slipped below $82,000. US economic data slate includes weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am), the September leading index (10am) and the October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index (11am), and Treasury auctions resume with a $26 billion 5-year TIPS new issue (1pm). The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of next Wednesday's decision.

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 names are lower: Tesla (TSLA) drops 4.4% after the electric-car maker cut its spending plans, following capital investment that trailed expectations last quarter (Nvidia (NVDA) -2%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -2%, Amazon (AMZN) -2%, Meta Platforms (META) -2%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.2%)

• Chipmakers and other AI-related firms slide after reports from Tesla, Lam Research and IBM underwhelmed. Decliners include AMD (AMD) -4%, Broadcom (AVGO) -3%, Intel (INTC) -4%. The mood is weighing on other growth sectors and pushing crypto names lower
• American Airlines (AAL) slumps 4% after issuing a broad range for its fourth-quarter loss prediction, highlighting how the industry is struggling to map out its performance amid persistently high fuel prices.
• Biohaven (BHVN) soars 53% after the FDA said company’s new drug application resubmission for Vyglxia has been accepted for review.
• CSX (CSX) inches 2% higher after the railroad reported earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• The company is benefiting as trucking gets more expensive, pushing shippers to use its intermodal offering instead of having goods carried entirely by truck.
• Gentherm (THRM) falls 6% after the the automotive supplier reported adjusted earnings per share below analyst expectations in the third quarter.
• International Business Machines (IBM) falls 5% after posting third quarter results.
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) gains 2% after formally committing to building a $4.2 billion pipeline that will haul fuel across West Texas and the Panhandle to help power a data center complex.
• Lam Research (LRCX) falls 7% after the semiconductor capital equipment company gave a forecast for adjusted second-quarter earnings that was slightly weaker than expected at the midpoint of the range.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) rises 4% after lifting its full-year outlook as the company’s missile systems portfolio was buoyed by rising global defense spending.
• Pool Corp. (POOL) gains 4% after third quarter results topped expectations.
• Procter & Gamble (PG) gains 3% after sales and profits beat Wall Street expectations, showing the Tide-owner’s limited price hikes that are successfully drawing constrained customers have not come at the expense of earnings.

In other corporate news, Meta did its best to change the subject from capex, announcing a one-time dividend of non-voting Class C shares that effectively amounts to a 2-for-1 split and, per Bloomberg, gives Mark Zuckerberg shares he can sell without giving up control as a proposed California wealth tax looms; Tesla CEO Elon Musk wants to combine Tesla and SpaceX in a $3.7 trillion deal and is rushing to get it done before Trump leaves office, according to Bloomberg; the US signed a deal with Lockheed Martin for a minimum of 850 F-35 jets; Comcast reported 3Q adjusted EPS of $1.07 vs an estimate of 98c; Blackstone's 3Q distributable income of $1.32 a share beat the $1.26 estimate; American Airlines sees a 4Q adjusted loss of 50c to $1.10 a share, vs an estimated loss of 49c; Spotify sees 4Q MAUs of 818 million, a hair below the 819.08 million estimate; Barclays is cutting 5,000 jobs, about 5% of headcount, as it adopts AI across the bank; EQT's bid for Qiagen is now firm at €46.50 a share in cash; and Chinese AI startup DeepSeek raised about 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) in its latest fundraising round.

Bloomberg sums up the overnight mood succinctly: "AI nerves are back." The bar for an AI beat has moved from ambition to monetization, and the market is no longer giving credit for spending plans alone: Meta lifted the bottom of its 2026 capex range to $135 billion from $130 billion and guided above consensus, Tesla cut its capex target after third-quarter spending came in at $4.73 billion vs $7.95 billion expected, and both stocks are lower. Spend more or spend less, the market frowned either way. IBM swung from a 5% gain to a 4.6% loss in late trading even after saying slipped infrastructure deals had come back, a reminder that software is no safe corner of the AI trade either. All of this comes as hyperscaler credit spreads sit at record wides (as we noted in last night's wrap) and as Ken Griffin calls AI "almost certainly" a bubble.

“Markets are basically telling us we are moving on from trading AI vibes and narrative to now requiring a pretty high bar for what an earnings beat looks like,” said Kaanhari Singh, APAC head of equity derivatives sales at Barclays, on Bloomberg TV. “That’s both in terms of capex forward guidance, but also for the path of monetization.”

Tesla and Lam results put “the AI confidence back in the air again, dragging a few other semi names lower,” said Anna Wu, an investment strategist and founder of Floodlines Research.

The pain was most acute in Asia, where the CSI 300 briefly entered a bear market, down 20% from its June highs, and Chinese e-commerce names including Alibaba slumped after the market regulator urged platforms to tighten product quality controls. Chinese tech stocks are now erasing most of their 2-year gain.

JPM's Market Intel desk calls it a "narrative shift overnight amid geopolitics concerns": Wednesday's session closed near its highs with AI/Tech and Momentum leading, but that tone reversed overnight. Beyond the NYT Iran headline, the desk says underlying price action and trading desk feedback point to "the still fragile narrative around AI financing concerns and the lack of conviction / re-grossing from the recent tech reversal." The team stays Tactically Bullish, favoring cyclicals outside tech while selectively buying tech weakness in semis and memory. JPM specialist Mark Schilsky called Meta's quarter in line, with a Q4 revenue guide that is "decidedly better than expected," but noted the 2027 commentary "will leave some investors wanting" and that the new Class C shares likely mean an equity raise is coming, just not until early 2027: "The overhang lives on!" Meanwhile, JPM credit trader William Jarvis notes the bank's HY AI basket is trading at all-time wides, 97bps wider than its July peak, mostly led by CoreWeave, with Oracle widening far more than the rest of IG (as Barclays warned, the AI credit flush won't be the last).

Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky flagged the capex whiplash: "Tesla actually cut FY capex guidance from >$25bn to ~$20bn, completely out of sync with what SpaceX was telling us earlier this week. Could be sequencing, but the market doesn't like capex going backwards." He also notes the NYT report means "we've now effectively stapled another potential escalation event to the calendar" right after the midterms, and that prime data shows one of the most pronounced net tech reductions in recent memory. The GS desk adds that hedge funds have heavily net sold global equities in October, with short sales outpacing long buys about 5 to 1, and short leverage at the 99th percentile; with positioning this defensive, the derivatives desk sees right-tail hedges as historically cheap. In Asia, Goldman's prime book shows L/S managers down 1.5% intraday and 8.6% month to date.

In Europe, the French bond rout that has carried out London macro traders deepened: France's 10Y yield hit 5.14% and its risk premium over bunds widened to 177bps, the most since 2011, as the government prepares to deploy soldiers to free up police for Saturday's protests and Paris luxury boutiques brace for more unrest. Goldman has built a fragmentation alarm to gauge how close Europe is to another "whatever it takes" moment; M&G is not worried just yet.

“We don’t believe that France needs to be bailed out. There’s no concern about this,” said M&G Asset Management CEO Joseph Pinto on Bloomberg TV. “We believe it’s a sound and solid country. It just needs to act on its budget and provide something that reassures markets.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.9% at 638.75, with 445 members down and 146 up, as mixed results from US tech revive concerns about the AI trade. Miners and banks are the worst performing sectors, while telecoms, food and beverage and health care are the only gainers; JPM notes semis and electrification baskets are among the top underperformers, with only defensives and rate-sensitive baskets in the green as beta and momentum are sold. Hermès slumps after its Asia-Pacific sales disappointed, while UCB soars after raising guidance. Here are the biggest European movers:

• Nestle gains as much as 2.7% after the company reported real internal growth for the nine month period of +1.9%, which was welcomed by analysts who noted “broad-based” improvement in RIG across different divisions and regions of the business.
• UCB shares rally as much as 16% after the biopharma company raised its guidance, with analysts expecting material upgrades to consensus estimates.
• Verisure shares rise as much as 17% in Stockholm after the Financial Times reported that CVC is exploring a bid to take the security group private.
• Moncler shares rise as much as 2.8% after the Italian luxury company reported third-quarter revenue that beat consensus estimates.
• Rentokil shares rise as much as 9.5% after the British facility management company reported revenue for the third quarter of $1.89 billion.
• Hermès shares fall 9% after the Birkin bag maker’s third-quarter revenue fell short of analyst estimates.
• Besi shares drop 4.3% after reporting 3Q orders that beat consensus estimates and pushing back on concerns that ASML would be a competitive threat to its flagship hybrid bonding technology.
• Roche shares slip as much as 1.5% after the pharmaceutical firm reported third-quarter results. Analysts note the sales beat reflects a benefit from the integration of its Enterprise Resource Planning IT system.
• SEB shared declined as much as 5.2% after the lender reported earnings that analysts say are weak and announced a pause in buybacks after Sweden’s financial regulator temporarily raised its capital requirements.
• Yara shares fall as much as 4.7% after the fertilizer producer reported adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Sainsbury shares fall as much as 4.4% after the British supermarket reported earnings for the first half, including revenue which fell short of expectations.
• Digital Network falls as much as 18% after the founder sold a nearly 20% stake in Polish advertising-services company through an accelerated bookbuild at a 19% discount to the previous close, upsizing the deal from an initially planned 12%.
• Inchcape shares fall as much as 12% after the vehicle dealership group cut its margin guidance for the year due to continued underperformance of its business in Australia.
• Nokia shares fall as much as 3%. The firm gave bullish guidance for revenues exposed to data center buildout in 2027, seeing 25% to 30% growth in optical and IP networks businesses, adding to evidence that its networking gear is seeing strong demand due to AI adoption.

Europe's Wednesday gains now look like borrowed strength: the Stoxx 600 has gone nowhere since early August while Brent and the Kospi have moved big.

Asian stocks fell sharply, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping more than 1.5% to head for its lowest close since July 30, as underwhelming US tech earnings and higher oil broadened the AI selloff across the region. According to Goldman's regional wrap, South Korea's Kospi sank 3.5% with SK Hynix down 5.5% and Samsung down 4%, the Hang Seng fell 3%, its biggest drop since March, with the Hang Seng Tech index down about 5% as Alibaba and Lenovo slumped, and the Nikkei 225 dropped 2.7% to break below 64,000 as Advantest, Tokyo Electron (-7%) and SoftBank (-6.9%) accounted for about 62% of the index's losses. China's CSI 300 fell 1.8% and is now 20% off its June high, Taiwan's Taiex lost 1.8% and Australia's ASX 200 slipped 0.4%, while Indonesia was the regional outlier, rising 1.1% as the sovereign wealth fund said it was buying local stocks. The Bank of Korea held rates at 3% but said growth would be "considerably higher" than projected, signaling more tightening to come.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed and the DXY trades in a 101.44-101.73 range, pressured by lower yields. The yen is the standout, rising to its strongest against the euro in almost a year, with EUR/JPY falling as much as 1.1% to 175.64, its biggest drop in seven weeks, and USD/JPY dropping as much as 0.9% to 156.77, down for a third day; real money funds have been buying the yen, traders say, while the Swiss franc rose to its strongest against the euro since early July. Bloomberg's Vassilis Karamanis notes the dollar now trades "almost as a clean function of Treasuries: once 10-year yields slipped below 5.10%, the dollar was sold further." The kiwi lags after cooler-than-expected New Zealand CPI, the Egyptian pound hit a record low, and Turkey's central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bps to 36%, its first cut since the start of the Iran war and in line with estimates.

Declines in Japanese equities are fueling risk-off sentiment, while recent stability in the Japanese government bond market is also supporting the yen, Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., told Bloomberg.

In rates, Treasury futures extend gains in early US trading with the 10-year yield down 9bps near 5.03%, outperforming global peers, as haven demand from the AI stock jitters and deepening French bond stress overwhelms higher energy prices. Yields are 6-10bps lower across the curve with intermediate tenors outperforming, richening the 2s5s30s fly by around 4bp, while the 5s30s spread is steeper by about 4bp and the 30-year yield touched its lowest since Sept. 23. The haven bid is coming from the AI selloff rather than the oil spike, and the long end is the one place investors are still finding shelter (gold and Bitcoin clearly aren't). Bunds and gilts are also bid, with the German 10-year yield down 7bps at 3.35% and long gilts outperforming, but France is the stress point: OATs fell more than a point at worst, lifting the 10-year yield to 5.14% and the spread over bunds to 177bps, the widest since 2011, while Italian and Spanish spreads also widened Wednesday. Money markets still price about 25bps of Fed hikes by year-end ahead of next Wednesday's decision, after another poor, tailing 20Y auction on Wednesday. Treasury auctions resume at 1pm with a $26 billion 5-year TIPS new issue, while the IG dollar issuance slate includes one name so far after just over $8 billion priced on Wednesday, with at least two borrowers that stood down planning to look again today.

In commodities, WTI briefly topped $100 and trades in a $97.72-$100.09 range while Brent trades between $109.81 and $112.68, still contained within Tuesday's broad range, after the IRGC Navy said four vessels transferring oil cargoes were struck in the Persian Gulf and three more hit sea mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran will neither reopen the strait nor resume negotiations until seven new conditions are met. Saudi Arabia is in talks to give Aramco access to foreign strategic storage, while Morgan Stanley estimates Middle East crude exports, including non-Hormuz routes, at about 17m b/d last week, roughly 94% of prewar levels. In Libya, a pipeline from the Hamada and Al-Tahara fields was shut. Spot gold sits at the bottom of its $4,067-$4,146 range as the oil spike raises inflation risks ahead of the Fed, and LME copper slid toward the bottom of its $14,090-$14,370 range on the AI selloff.

US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am, est. 200k) and continuing claims (8:30am), the September leading index (10am), EIA natural gas storage (10:30am), the October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index (11am) and a $26 billion 5-year TIPS auction (1pm). The Fed is in its blackout period. Companies reporting before the open include Procter & Gamble, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Comcast, American Airlines, Valero and Nasdaq; Valero and Bloom Energy also headline today's slate.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• For most of the war, Iran had an invaluable cushion: dozens of oil tankers holding millions of barrels of crude sitting safely in waters in Asia. Tehran steadily sold the oil to China, bringing in billions of much-needed cash. Now, that floating storage is gone. By mid-October, the reserves were fully depleted, according to analysts at Kpler, as a U.S. naval blockade prevented Iran from replacing the crude it normally sells to Chinese refineries. WSJ
• The US ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia because of the threat from Houthi militants, as the Iran-backed group carried out more strikes from Yemen; four people were killed in two attacks on an Aramco oil field and an airport in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province. BBG
• The US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, with targets likely to include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenals. NYT
• Aramco told staff to leave its headquarters in Dhahran and work remotely. RTRS
• Iran's IRGC threatened US bases in the region if Washington keeps escorting ships through what it calls an “illegal” Hormuz route. BBG
• Saudi Arabia is in talks with foreign governments to give state-owned Aramco access to their strategic oil storage, as the kingdom seeks to make its supplies to customers more resilient during disruptions, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said. BBG
• The risk-off mood boosted havens, with Treasuries, the yen and Swiss franc gaining. The 30-year US yield touched its lowest since Sept. 23, but there was no relief for embattled French bonds which led a slide in European peers. BBG
• France's 10-year bond risk premium over Germany widened as much as 18bps to 177bps, the widest since 2011. BBG
• Over the past two weeks, HFs aggressively net sold global Info Tech stocks at the fastest pace in the past decade (-3.3 SDs), driven by long-and-short sales. Net allocation to Global AI stocks now sits in the 38th percentile while aggregate long/short ratio is in the 6th percentile vs. the past year. GSPB
• Apple shares have become investors’ preferred Big Tech hedge against AI volatility as the company largely sits out the infrastructure spending boom. BBG
• DeepSeek raised about $15 billion from investors including CATL and Tencent. BBG
• JPM's HY AI credit basket is trading at all-time wides, 97bps wider than its widest level in July, with most of the move led by CoreWeave; Oracle has widened far more than the rest of the IG hyperscalers. JPM
• Japan’s largest labor union group is seeking another year of wage increases big enough to anchor pay growth against persistent inflation. WSJ
• Japanese monetary policy: the BOJ will keep rates unchanged at its meeting next week according to a report this morning in the Nikkei (this is consistent w/market expectations). Nikkei
• The Philippine central bank surprised markets with a bigger-than-expected interest rate hike as it seeks to keep inflation in check during one of the worst energy crisis in decades and looming weather-driven shocks. WSJ
• Turkey's central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bps to 36%, its first cut since the start of the Iran war, in line with estimates. BBG
• The EU reached a provisional deal to overhaul securitization market rules that would unleash billions of euros to finance initiatives in key areas such as defense and climate resilience. BBG
• Barclays said it’s cutting 5,000 jobs, or about 5% of total headcount, as part of a “technology-enabled” effort to reduce costs as it adopts artificial intelligence across the bank. BBG
• The US signed a deal with Lockheed Martin for a minimum of 850 F-35 jets. BBG
• A federal judge barred the DHS from knocking on doors to check on people’s immigration status in nine states through election day, saying the practice likely violates the Voting Rights Act. BBG
• BofA Total Card Spending (week to October 17th) +4.9% Y/Y (prev. +5.1%); lower-income spending growth has consistently outpaced higher-income spending growth over the past several weeks. Newsquawk
• Some US banks are reportedly detecting unauthorised AI agents operating within accounts: Axios. The report added that the banks affected include Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC).

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured and extended on losses throughout the session despite the positive lead from Wall Street, as AI and semiconductor names were sold after Tesla cut capex guidance, Lam Research fell after-hours, and Meta's results stoked concerns over the financial strain of heavy AI investment. Middle East tensions also remained in focus, with the US preparing ordered departures at embassies across the Gulf and reports of renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia. ASX 200 was lower, with energy and retail stocks leading the declines as Nick Scali slumped after its profit warning and weighed on fellow retailers, although the index pared some of its earlier losses. Nikkei 225 extended on losses, with AI and semiconductor names such as Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group, Ibiden and Fujikura pressured. KOSPI underperformed as concerns over investment in the AI value chain sparked a selloff in chip stocks, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both pressured, while Samsung Electro-Mechanics reversed the opening gains it saw on its NVIDIA tie-up. The BoK held rates unanimously, as expected, while Governor Shin said the recent stock market correction weighs on consumption. Hang Seng led the declines in the region with Lenovo and Hua Hong Semiconductor each down around 7% and CATL extending its losing streak to a seventh day, while the Shanghai Comp declined amid uncertainty over the Middle East, with semiconductor names sold.

Top Asian News

• BoJ's October lending survey: Corporate loan demand DI rose to +3 (prev. -1), led by small firms (+5), while banks' lending stance DI for large firms remained unchanged at +3 and corporate loan margins continued to narrow.
• Japan's RENGO set 2027 wage negotiation target centred on a 6% pay increase, while maintaining a minimum benchmark of at least 5%, aiming to sustain wage growth momentum following three consecutive years of average pay rises exceeding 5%.
• Japan is reportedly considering broadening the definition of defence-related spending to include AI, satellites, R&D and infrastructure such as ports and railways, amid US pressure to increase defence outlays and domestic fiscal constraints, according to sources.

European bourses are under pressure this morning, following on from the weakness seen in Asia. In Hong Kong, the likes of Alibaba (-6.1%) and PDD (-3.6%) slipped after China’s CMRC urged e-commerce platforms to strengthen product quality controls and consumer protection. Sectors highlight the negative bias. Telecoms, Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Health Care are the sector gainers. The underperformer is Basic Resources, followed by Banks and Tech. Key earnings include: SAP -0.9%, despite Q3 metric beats and sees FY26 cloud revenue at the upper end of its guided range; Nestle +1.6%, Q3 sales beat and reaffirms its FY26 sales growth target; Roche -0.5%, despite Q3 sales topping estimates and reaffirms FY outlook; Nokia -5.3%, despite Q3 profit beating expectations and expects supply chain constraints to continue in 2027. US equity futures follow the broader space lower, with underperformance in the NQ, pressured by Tesla (-4.5% pre-market) after reporting slower deliveries growth. Meta (-1.2% pre-market) follows sentiment lower, despite reporting strong Q3 results, but with potential focus on the Co. being ordered to pay a USD 25bln penalty to New Mexico.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the USD. JPY is the clear outperformer, joined closely by the CHF, benefiting from haven flows. On the flip side, the Antipodeans have been hampered by the risk tone, whilst the Kiwi digests cooler-than-expected CPI.
• DXY is on the back foot this morning, pressured by lower yields, which comes despite elevated energy prices. The index currently holds at the upper end of a 101.44 to 101.73 range; price action today will likely be dictated by cross-asset relationships, given that the data docket remains light today. Some of the pressure today may also be facilitated by poor results from Tesla.
• The JPY is the outperformer this morning, benefiting from its safe haven status. USD/JPY currently holds at the bottom end of a 156.76 to 158.25 range, a move which will no doubt be welcomed by Japanese officials. Focus for geopolitics was on an IRGC warning to US bases, that they may be a target if the US continues to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Aside from geopolitics, the JPY is digesting reports that Japan is considering the resumption of energy subsidies. Whilst this does reduce the inflationary implications of recent energy price rises, the overarching question is how Japan intends to finance this; of course, options include a supplementary budget, which could involve bond issuance, further fuelling fiscal woes. Elsewhere in Japan, the RENGO union is reportedly seeking a 6% wage increase for 2027, an increase from the 2026 figure of 5.01%; for reference, the union had demanded 5.94% in 2026.
• The Antipodeans are the slight laggards this morning, given the subdued risk tone. The Kiwi mildly underperforms vs the Aussie following a cooler-than-expected CPI report, but still remains at elevated levels. Therefore, money markets still expect the RBNZ to hike rates at next week’s meeting; Westpac sees rates to be hiked by 25bps.

Central Banks

• BoK left its rate unchanged at 3.0% as expected. BoK said today's rate decision was unanimous, while the timing and pace of further rate hikes will depend on inflation, economic conditions and financial stability. It is essential to assess domestic and external risks and the impact of the previous two rate hikes. Expects inflation to remain above its target for an extended period. Stock price volatility has increased amid concerns over slowing semiconductor sector profitability and investment. Financial imbalances related to the housing market and household debt require continued attention. Expects exports and investment to sustain strong growth.
• SNB Minutes (Sept): The rise in inflation since the beginning of the year has been largely attributable to the increase in oil product prices, but there are still no signs of second-round effects, and core inflation has risen only slightly. At the same time, medium-term inflationary pressure is only slightly higher, and the new conditional inflation forecast shows that inflation is within the range consistent with price stability over the entire forecast horizon. On FX, the Minutes state that the SNB is also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions, but that the increased willingness to intervene is no longer necessary in the current environment.

Fixed Income

• In brief, a haven bid is seen across most core fixed income, as the geopolitical situation escalates and yields prove somewhat resilient to the energy upside, as much of that is priced by this stage, with focus instead increasingly on the growth side of the equation.
• USTs just off a 105-19+ peak, firmer by 16 ticks at best. The docket ahead is relatively light, but the focus is firmly on geopolitics after the activity seen in APAC hours and the continued dissemination of punchy rhetoric in the European morning.
• Bunds also bid, and in-fitting with USTs for the most part. At a 121.90 high, firmer by 50 ticks. As above, specifics are relatively light and the focus is firmly on geopolitical developments for core counterparts.
• In brief, while the focus for core debt is increasingly on the growth implications of the ongoing Middle East situation, this is not to a degree that is likely to dissuade policymakers from tightening in the weeks ahead, with the BoE for instance expected to start its tightening cycle; though, it is expected to be brief.
• Continuing with the UK, Gilts opened with modest gains, given the above haven allure factoring initially, before then being briefly unwound/offset by energy’s influence. However, Gilts broadly conform to peers, with gains of around 15 ticks currently, some 10 off the 84.73 peak.
• More pertinently, those under significant fiscal scrutiny are seeing a selloff as the growth-hit and inflationary angle combine to further knock the fiscal backdrop. A point that is particularly evident in France, with OATs down by over a point at most, lifting the 10yr yield to a 5.14% high, and widening the OAT-Bund spread to 1.73%, the highest since January 2011.
• The UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.99x (prev. 4.26x), real yield 1.141% (prev. 0.933%).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have climbed throughout the APAC session and continue as Europe steps in. Iran’s IRGC Navy said four vessels transferring oil cargoes were struck in the Persian Gulf, while three other vessels hit sea mines yesterday west of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases. With repeated airing of these comments, it has continued to support the energy complex. WTI briefly topped USD 100/bbl, but currently holds at the upper end of its USD 97.72-100.09/bbl range, while Brent trades in a USD 109.81-112.68/bbl range. All being said, the crude complex remains contained within Tuesday’s broad range.
• Elsewhere, the NYT reported that the US and Israeli militaries have developed plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, targeting energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenals, while Israeli press cited US official comments that there has apparently been a change in the American position in favour of a pre-emptive strike on Iran.
• Spot gold has come under pressure in the European morning, as it resides at the lower end of its USD 4067-4146/oz range. Zooming out to the range formed over the past month, the yellow metal sits at the bottom of that range (USD 4066-4228/oz). The precious metal has not been favoured by usual risk-off flows or a weaker dollar, but instead found headwinds from escalating Middle East hostilities, which have raised inflation risks ahead of the Fed decision next week.
• 3M LME Copper slid overnight and currently holds at the bottom end of its USD 14.09k-14.37k/t range. The red metal is tracking the losses in the equity space, over continued worries of the AI trade. Copper has benefited recently due to its use in data centres and power infrastructure.
• US waived Russian diesel tax record requirements for buyers.
• Russia's Novatek is to redistribute its LNG globally when the ban on its imports into Europe comes into effect, RIA reported.
• Iraq is looking to charter tankers to ship fuel oil outside of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Saudi Aramco CEO expects oil demand to increase by 3mln BPD once the Middle East conflict ends. The CEO added that oil could have been higher during the crisis; one factor that offset it was the east-west pipeline.
• Libya's NOC said unidentified people have entered the crude-receiving station near the Zawiya refinery (120k BPD) and closed the pipeline valves.

Trade/Tariffs

• China's MOFCOM said it is to improve its trade friction response mechanism.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran's IRGC Navy said four vessels transferring oil cargoes were struck in the Persian Gulf, while three other vessels hit sea mines yesterday west of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases. Furthermore, Fars reported similar commentary by the IRGC Navy, stating that confrontation could extend to US bases if Washington continues “encouraging” vessels to use an “illegal” route in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's Major General Rezaei said if diplomacy can create this understanding, Iran prefers diplomacy but warned that continuing the current situation will have strategic consequences, including that energy markets will not calm down for the next three years.
• Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran has presented seven new conditions through mediators and will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor resume negotiations until they are met.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said 90% of the mission has been accomplished in Iran and that striking Iranian nuclear facilities is not enough as long as the regime remains in power, Channel 12 reported. Additionally, Israeli PM Netanyahu said he will inform US President Trump of Israel's plans regarding Iran but will not seek his approval for any strikes, according to Al Arabiya.
• US and Israeli militaries have reportedly developed plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, targeting energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenals, NYT reported, citing sources.
• US military is reducing troop presence at bases across the Middle East, while the State Department is ordering further staff reductions at diplomatic posts amid regional threats and potential US military action against Iran, NBC News reported.
• "The likelihood of a renewed war with Iran is increasing", Israeli Walla reported citing a security official.
• Explosions were reportedly heard in Iran's port city of Sirik, with claims that US forces struck an anti-ship missile launcher targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's Channel 12 reported.
• Saudi Civil Aviation said King Fahd Airport in Dammam was attacked on Wednesday evening, Al Arabiya reported.
• Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province was reportedly targeted by four drones, Naya for Iraq reported.
• An Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia was on fire, Sabereen News reported.
• Saudi Aramco has reportedly instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work from home, according to sources.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Kremlin said there are no current plans for a conversation between President Putin and US President Trump, but it could be organised quickly if required.
• A drone struck energy infrastructure in Ukraine's Poltava region near Kremenchuk, according to a local official.

Crypto

• Bitcoin slips below USD 82k, from an earlier peak of USD 84.3k as the downside coincides with the renewed pressure on risk assets.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200k, prior 199k
• 08:30: Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 1710k, prior 1710k
• 10:00: Sept. Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
• 10:30: EIA weekly natural gas storage
• 11:00: Oct. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 12, prior 14
• 13:00: $26bn 5-year TIPS auction (new issue)

Central Bank Speakers

• None: the Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout period ahead of the Oct. 28 FOMC decision

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been another difficult 24 hours for markets, as investors grapple with AI growth concerns, higher oil prices, and ongoing fiscal stress. Admittedly, yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+0.58%) post a third consecutive gain, closing back within 1% of its record high. But as we go to press this morning, all those risks have resurfaced. First, the latest earnings after the US close failed to reassure investors, with futures on the NASDAQ 100 (-1.32%) pointing to fresh declines. Second, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have seen oil prices bounce back this morning, with Brent crude (+1.73%) currently around a five-month high of $110.70/bbl. And third, France’s fiscal position has remained in the spotlight, with the country’s 10yr yield (+8.3bps) closing above 5% yesterday for the first time since 2002. Indeed, that risk-off move has also pushed the 30yr Treasury yield (-3.1bps) down to 5.38% this morning, which would be its lowest closing level in the last month. So the overnight backdrop has clearly turned more negative since yesterday’s session.

We’ll start with the oil moves, as several geopolitical headlines came through overnight that led to mounting concerns about a fresh escalation in the conflict. Among others, the New York Times reported that the US and Israel had drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the midterm elections, with the report saying targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure. Moreover, the strikes on Saudi Arabia continued, with two people killed in an attack on the Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia, whilst another was killed in a strike on the King Fahd International Airport. In the meantime, the US State Department issued an ordered departure for non-emergency government employees and family members in Saudi Arabia.

All those headlines have come amidst little sign of progress towards a deal. Indeed, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in an FT op-ed yesterday that “we have no trust whatsoever in the sincerity of the US administration’s professed desire for peace with Iran.” And he also said “there is little reason to expect progress now”. So that dampened hopes for a near-term resolution, and oil prices have continued to rise over the last 24 hours. So Brent crude is currently up +1.73% this morning at $110.70/bbl, and investors are also pricing a longer period of high oil prices extending well into 2027. For instance, the 12-month Brent future (+0.75%) is also up to $88.39/bbl this morning.

The other big development after the US close were the earnings releases from Meta and Tesla, with tech stocks struggling to gain traction since. For Meta, its shares rose by more than +2% in after-hours trading, as it beat on Q3 revenue ($64.6bn vs $63.3bn est.) and delivered Q4 guidance towards the upper end of expectations ($73-76bn vs $73.6bn est.). The company also slightly boosted its 2026 capex plan from a $130bn-145bn range to $135bn-145bn. However, Tesla fell by -3% after-hours after it cut its 2026 capex target from $25bn to $20bn. So that raised questions about the speed of its transition into AI and robotics, while current revenue and earnings were close to expectations.

In aggregate, those results took some of the shine off the tech mood overnight, which had been a bit more optimistic yesterday. So this morning, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.66%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-1.32%) are both pointing lower. Moreover, we’ve seen that echoed across Asian equity markets this morning, with all the major indices falling back. That includes sharp losses for the KOSPI (-3.26%), the Hang Seng (-2.87%) and the Nikkei (-2.00%), whilst there have been relatively smaller declines for the CSI 300 (-1.26%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.89%). Earlier in the session, the CSI 300 had even entered bear market territory, having fallen more than -20% since its closing peak in June, although it’s pared back those losses since and is now slightly above that level.

Before those earnings, US markets had actually put in a decent session yesterday, with tech stocks leading the way. That was partly thanks to the earnings report from SpaceX after the previous day’s close, which helped to reassure investors that the tech rally was still durable, and we saw some of the most AI-exposed names do particularly well yesterday. For instance, the Philly semiconductor index (+1.97%) continued to recover, whilst the NASDAQ (+1.05%) also put in a strong session. So that helped to lift US equities more broadly, with the S&P 500 ultimately up +0.58%, closing within 1% of its record high. And over in Europe, there were even bigger gains, with the STOXX 600 (+0.92%) and other indices all posting a solid performance, with tech leading the way there too.

But even as equities saw growing optimism, the fiscal concerns were still present around Europe, with France’s 10yr yield (+8.3bps) closing at a post-2002 high of 5.01%. And with the 10yr bund yield only up +2.1bps to 3.42%, that pushed the Franco-German 10yr spread up to 159bps, its highest closing level since 2011. Now admittedly, the spread remains some way beneath its Euro crisis peak, when it closed at 189bps in November 2011, but the continued rise has seen other sovereigns come under pressure too. Among others, the Italian 10yr spread over bunds widened +3.8bps to 116bps, whilst Spain’s widened +3.1bps to 66bps, marking its widest level since June 2025.

For Europe, matters weren’t helped by the latest rise in energy prices, which added to concerns on the inflation side. For instance, European natural gas futures (+2.78%) were back up to €87.43/MWh. And even though Brent crude was little changed in yesterday’s session, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+3.5bps) still rose to 3.82%, its highest level since May. And with more inflation priced in, investors priced in more ECB rate hikes too, with the amount priced by the June 2027 meeting up +2.0bps on the day to 64bps.

Over in the US, Treasury yields saw a smaller increase than their European counterparts, with the 10yr yield (+1.1bps) only rising to 5.12%. However, that’s pulled back given the risk-off tone overnight, with the 10yr yield (-3.5bps) falling back to 5.08%.

Elsewhere overnight, the Bank of Korea left their policy rate at 3%, in line with expectations. But they also said growth this year and next would be “considerably higher” than their August projections, and Governor Shin said they needed to maintain a tightening policy stance. Meanwhile in New Zealand, inflation fell more than expected in Q3, falling to +3.7% on a year-on-year basis (vs. +3.8% expected).

Finally, the other inflation release yesterday came from the UK CPI print, which rose more than expected to +3.5% in September (vs. +3.4% expected). That was the highest level for headline CPI in nearly a year, whilst the core CPI print also hit a 6-month high of +2.8%, although that was in line with expectations. So collectively, that helped to cement investor expectations for a BoE rate hike in November, particularly after the strong labour market data the previous day. In fact by the close yesterday, markets were pricing in a 98% chance of a November rate hike.

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, and the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in October. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Kocher, Panetta, Pereira and Escriva. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 08:25

Music Publishers Sue Anthropic For Copyright Infringement

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal district court in California is set to hear arguments this week as a group of music publishers sues Anthropic, alleging that the artificial intelligence (AI) firm is stealing their work.

Led by Concord Music Group, the plaintiffs say that Anthropic trained its AI model, Claude, using copyrighted lyrics from their artists. The next hearing is slated for Oct. 21.

In a separate case, Concord alleges that Anthropic used pirated copies of 20,517 music works - accessed from torrent sites - to train Claude.

The lawsuits are just two of dozens of legal actions taken by publishers in the book, news, and art industries, as creatives argue that AI companies have trained their models on existing work with an intent to replace human ingenuity with machine outputs.

When prompted, Claude will create a new set of song lyrics that are similar to existing work, Concord says, or generate a new song using similar chord progressions.

"For example, when asked by Publishers' investigator to write "a song about the death of Buddy Holly," Claude generated a verbatim copy of the lyrics to 'American Pie,'" a court filing says.

The Claude AI tool will also spit out lyrics to copyrighted songs upon request, and Concord argues that this cuts into its profits.

If a web user wants to know the words to "Uptown Funk" or "Hey Jude," a simple Google search will bring up any number of websites containing the lyrics. But those websites pay a licensing fee to republish the lyrics. Getting the song texts for free through AI makes those websites obsolete, Concord argues, and deprives the publishers of that extra revenue.

For its part, Anthropic is arguing that the Fair Use doctrine allows it to use the song lyrics. That legal principle allows use of copyrighted work under certain circumstances, such as teaching or criticism, or when the copyrighted material is substantially transformed into something new.

Anthropic recently had to settle a case for $1.5 billion after a group of book publishers sued. It used the same fair use argument, but only with partial success.

Although the judge in that case agreed that using copyrighted material to train AI models was fair use, the company had initially used pirated versions of the books taken from the internet. That may end up being relevant for Concord's second lawsuit.

Anthropic also said that Claude contains "copyright-protective" features and that it isn't the company's fault when a user finds a workaround.

"When a system 'creates the copy only in response to the user's command,' its operator does not engage in volitional conduct," Anthropic said in a court filing. "The user does."

Concord is asking the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California in San Jose to award up to $150,000 per copyright violation, along with another $25,000 for instances where it alleges that Claude removed copyright notices from song lyrics. Or else, it at least wants the profits it lost by the infringement - an undisclosed amount Concord said it will later document in court.

At the end of last month, the plaintiffs submitted a short brief noting a recent appeals court decision they hope will galvanize their cases.

On Sep. 30, the Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled against the fair use argument in a similar case where Thomson Reuters sued AI company ROSS Intelligence.

Reuters developed a legal research database called Westlaw, and the entries contain "headnotes," which are short, hand-crafted annotations that summarize the information. According to a court filing, ROSS hired an outside company to provide material to train its AI tool, and that company used 25,000 Westlaw headnotes for that purpose.

In ruling for Reuters, the Third Circuit said that this was not fair use, partly because the ROSS tool was specifically created to be a competitor to Westlaw.

However, California is covered by the Ninth Circuit, so the court won't be strictly bound by that precedent when it considers the Anthropic lawsuit.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 08:20

French Budget Rejections Fuel Debt Crisis Fears As Yield Spread Over Germany Hits 15-Year High

French government bonds sold off earlier today, pushing 10-year yields above 5% as budget concerns and social unrest sent the country's borrowing premium over Germany to its highest since 2011.

The French 10-year yield climbed to 5.11%, its highest since 2002, while the spread over equivalent German debt widened to 174 basis points, according to Bloomberg data.

Separately, across the Atlantic, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 5.07% as EU equities weakened and US stock futures fell on concerns about an AI bubble. 

UBS macro strategist Simon Penn wrote in a note to clients that the surge in French yields and the widening spread were due to "budget rejections."

Penn added more color:

The French 10-year yield has opened Thursday higher, at 5.05%, up 3.6bp on the day so far. That's pushed the spread to Germany out another 5.5bp. 

The news flow has moved away from street protests and back to the roots of the budget. The government isn't finding any takers for its budget proposals so far. Though full formal votes on the entirety of the budget are still to take place, this week has already seen MPs reject reduced spending measures. 

News that the rejections mean some EUR10 bn of deficit reductions have already been cast to one side, and the most contentious budget matters are still to be discussed has raised further the prospect of budget failure. 

A week ago the working assumption in the markets had been that MP's would vent their frustrations with budget measures but stop short of outright rejection. That is not proving to be the case. The bond market is hence reacting accordingly. The next threat comes later Thursday afternoon if MPs indicate today's proposals to cut spending are also to be rejected.

In a separate update, Penn said:

The biggest argument in the French parliament on Thursday is likely to be on the government's proposal to limit pension indexation. Under the current plan, only around one-third of pensioners, primarily those on lower incomes, would continue to receive full inflation-linked increases, with larger pensions facing partial indexation or a freeze. The proposal is one of the largest sources of planned savings and has already encountered significant resistance during the committee stage. Healthcare measures are also likely to attract intense scrutiny, with MPs debating changes aimed at slowing the growth of health and pharmaceutical spending. More broadly, the debate will test whether the government can preserve enough of its fiscal consolidation programme to maintain its target of reducing the overall public deficit to 5.0% of GDP in 2027 from an expected 5.4% in 2026.

UBS global head of economics and strategy research Arend Kapteyn asked, "A Slowdown in European Fiscal Support?" 

EU draft budgets suggest Eurozone stimulus drops sharply next year, but that assumes France delivers its planned tightening and it ignores the spending boost from the final RRF disbursements. 

France's mounting debt load is reviving a familiar European nightmare: the potential for another sovereign debt crisis, 15 years after the last one scared parts of the eurozone for years. This time, the warning signs are flashing at the heart of the bloc, with investors demanding a much higher premium to finance one of Europe's largest economies, now combined with unfettered mass migration and social unrest, certaintly a new dynamic. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 07:20

European Regimes Renew Their Attacks On Free Speech

Authored by Ryan McMaken via Mises Institute,

In recent weeks, German and French politicians have denounced free speech, and especially the concept of "freedom of speech" as long envisioned in the libertarian tradition of natural rights. French President Emmanuel Macron on September 29 stated that"The so-called American 'free speech' today, which some people have promoted, is the opposite of free speech." Macron compared speaking freely as comparable to walking down the street assaulting other people.

A week earlier, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared,"Don't anyone come to me with free speech!" He asserted we must "still be able to protect citizens from false information."

Both were speaking on issues related to online speech through social media and similar platforms. Both see a grave danger to the ruling class posed by the ability of unvetted or anonymous users to post opinions freely.

In both cases, these attacks on freedom have been in the context of European regimes' repeated efforts to impose new regulations on social media platforms to limit speech.

This has been going on for several years. For example, back in February, Macron stated that "free speech is pure bullshit."

In Europe, the anonymity issue is no minor affair. In Germany, there are literal speech police who will arrest ordinary citizens merely for saying things online or reposting memes. It's easy to see why anonymity could be an essential tool in posting ideas and facts the regime doesn't like.

A European regime insisting on abolishing online anonymity is essentially tantamount to announcing that these regimes want the ability to make more arrests for wrongspeech. This is a growing problem across Europe, and a 2025 study concluded that British police were making 30 arrests per day for non-violent "offensive online messages." Under British law, one can be prosecuted for hurting someone else's feelings. That's not how British apologists describe it, of course, but that is the essential reality.

Euphemisms for Censorship

Whether we're talking about France, the UK, or Germany - all places where the despotic enemies of free expression have seemingly free rein - the regimes' forces do not, of course, come right out and say that they support censorship.

They couch their censorship in the soft language of Leftwing ideology. The claim is that speech must be regulated in order to combat "hate speech" or to reflect the "common good" or to combat "disinformation."

To wit, in recent years, European politicians have insisted that speech be made to fit into "a common framework" - to use Macron's phrasing - and to be subject to some standard determining what is "false information."

But here is the rub: Who is to determine what falls within this common framework? Who is to determine what constitutes "false information"? It is the ruling oligarchy and its political allies, of course, that will determine if some proposed fact or idea is to be allowed to be spoken freely.

The ruling elites will decide if some sentiment or phrase is to be defined as "hate speech" and thus will be punished by state police and regime jailers. The ruling elites will determine what is "science," and therefore what constitutes "disinformation." This was on full display in the United States during the Covid Panic, when the government bureaucrat Anthony Fauci effectively declared "I am the science."

It is through these state-created and reasonable-sounding "exceptions" to free speech that the regime smuggles in its despotism.

For example, this has been the case for many years with defamation laws. Those who defend legal sanctions for "defamation" essentially advocate for government censorship to combat hurt feelings. Moreover, for centuries, governments have used defamation laws as a means of punishing criticism of the regime. Laws against "seditious libel" - employed by absolutist kings of old - have always essentially been laws against free speech.

An Assault on Truth Itself

The individuals who are directly punished will not be the only victims of this censorship. Truth and critical thinking themselves will be the victims as the regime's subjects will no longer be allowed to fully and publicly examine the veracity of claims made by the ruling elites. It means that "truth" will be whatever the regime says it is.

This problem of using free speech to hide and distort reality itself was well described more than 100 years ago by the radical free-market libertarian Vilfredo Pareto. Pareto was no naive democrat who thought that freedom could necessarily be protected by elections or written constitutions. But he did understand that freedom of speech is at the very foundation of a free society, regardless of the type of regime or whatever other freedoms might be protected in writing.

Even as Pareto was facing the rise of violent radical socialists in Italy - and thoroughly doubted the ability of the liberal state to deal with it - he never wavered on the key importance of free speech. That is, Pareto remained a dogmatic hardliner on free speech, and in this was like nearly all libertarians before him, from the anarcho-capitalist Molinari to the American Revolutionaries.

Not surprisingly, then, Pareto concludes there were no "mitigating factors" that could legitimately limit speech in the name of some common good. Writing in 1916 he stated:

[B]efore a theory can be considered true, it is virtually indispensable that there be perfect freedom to impugn it. Any limitation, even indirect and however remote, imposed on anyone choosing to contradict it is enough to cast suspicion upon it. Hence freedom to express one's thought, even counter to the opinion of the majority or of all, even when it offends the sentiments of the few or of the many, even when it is generally reputed absurd or criminal, always proves favourable to the discovery of objective truth (accord of theory with fact). ...

Pareto goes on to insist that there can be no exceptions, even for the sake of protecting "truths" long held to be precious. Not even those assertions said to be essential to humanitarianism can be considered protected from the scrutiny of free speech. He continues:

Nor can an exception be made for humanitarian dogmas, nor for the dogmas of the sex religion so dear to Senator Berenger and other geniuses of the same magnitude. Let us keep the point strictly before us: There is no scientific liberty unless everything is open to doubt - even Euclid's geometry and three-dimensional space. It is ridiculous to say that one is disposed to grant liberty for "truth" but not liberty for "error"; for the point at issue is none other than to discover where the "truth" lies and where the "error"; and it cannot be settled if "error" cannot be defended by every possible reason that can be advanced in its favour. Only after such reasons have been validly refuted is judgment of error affirmed - pending further investigation. Many people fail to understand that, because in judging of truth or error they substitute a criterion of sentiment for the logico-experimental criterion.

Clearly, the fact that free speech is now so under siege in Europe is simply the latest evidence of how far out of favor old historical liberalism has become in Europe. Every year, Europe more enthusiastically embraces its worst tendencies in which human rights are repeatedly jettisoned to protect the "rights" of those who rule over the continent. Yet, the antipathy toward free speech also demonstrates the weakness of the European regimes and their political programs. Were the German, French, and British states not so hampered by political division, economic decline, and public dissatisfaction, they would not be so fearful.

Americans have no yet traveled so far down this road. But the foundation is already being built. Republicans support laws deeming all criticism of a certain foreign government to be "anti-semitism" and therefore "hate speech." Covid laid bare the American Left's enthusiasm for anti-speech tyranny. All that is necessary for the First Amendment to be wiped away is for a handful of federal judges to agree with the enemies of freedom. There is no guarantee.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 05:00

French Counterterror Police Arrest 'Ultra-Left' Activist Over Limoges City Hall Fire

French police on Tuesday arrested a 34-year-old man suspected of taking part in the October 17 arson of Limoges city hall, three days after the riots that gutted the 1883 building. The elite RAID unit's Bordeaux branch took him at 6:15 a.m. in a small, isolated house at Val d'Issoire, in the Haute-Vienne department, according to the Limoges prosecutor's office. The prosecutor called him a "person suspected in the fire." He is presumed innocent and has not been charged.

The burnt city hall of the central city of Limoges, France, on October 18, 2026. CLOTAIRE ACHI / REUTERS

A source close to the case told Franceinfo he is an "ultra-left activist" already on the "fiché S" security watchlist. Some outlets first reported his age as 40; Franceinfo corrected it to 34. The prosecutor said investigators identified him through "painstaking" cross-checking of images and videos. ICI, the public radio network, reports that he is from the neighboring Creuse department and is suspected of earlier sabotage of TGV overhead lines and construction sites. His record was clean until an appeal court convicted him of violence against a police officer at an October 2024 protest in Guéret, a ruling he has taken to the Court of Cassation, so it is not final.

The Justice Ministry says he was not alone. Spokesman Sacha Straub-Kahn told ICI that "we are certain, from the images, that this person did not act alone," calling it a "manifestly concerted action" and putting the crowd in front of city hall at 500 to 700 people with "fairly substantial pyrotechnic means." No accomplice has been named or arrested. The only source for the ultra-left label is an unnamed one, and neither the prosecutor nor the ministry has said what role the suspect is accused of playing.

Custody, which began Tuesday, can run to 96 hours because the case falls under the special regime for organized crime. The investigation is run jointly by Haute-Vienne police and the national counterterrorism sub-directorate (SDAT). The national anti-terrorist prosecutor's office has not taken the case, but is following it. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said Monday that anti-terror prosecutors would soon decide whether to treat the fire as a suspected terror attack.

The fire itself began around 6 p.m. Saturday, when masked protesters entered the town hall and set it alight, according to the prefecture. Prefect Maurice Barate said the fire was set deliberately. Overnight the roof and belfry collapsed, and only the modern rear section was saved. Nineteen people were taken into custody that day, and four police officers were seriously hurt. Prosecutors opened an inquiry into destruction of property by dangerous means by an organized group.

Mayor Guillaume Guérin says the state left his police to face the mob. Guérin, of the center-right Republicans, told Sud Radio that national police ran out of crowd-dispersal grenades at about 3:30 p.m. and fell back, and that he saw about 700 infiltrators among a march of roughly 5,000 (a figure the outlet did not verify). He told Public Sénat that 400 rioters faced only 30 municipal police officers, and that the state is "in part responsible" for what happened. He has asked for a special rebuilding plan like the one for Notre-Dame, full state funding of what insurance does not cover, and has said he may resign if he does not get it.

Reacting to the arrest, Guérin said he expects the courts to be "up to the task" and wants the suspect jailed, while noting the presumption of innocence, because "he destroyed the house of all Limousins." He has secured a riot-police company for next Saturday, saying he needs national police and CRS officers "to maintain order." Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is due to visit Limoges on Friday.

Democrats retreat from house races they hoped to flip Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 04:15

NATO To Increase Black Sea Presence Following Drone Attacks On Shipping

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

NATO will send additional military equipment and aircraft to the Black Sea, following a series of drone attacks on shipping vessels in the key waterway.

Ships wait in the Black Sea in Constanta, Romania, on Oct. 15, 2026. Andreea Campeanu/Reuters

Allison Hart, NATO's principal spokeswoman, said in an Oct. 20 post on X that the assets will support surveillance, reconnaissance, and forensic activities.

The decision came after NATO ambassadors met at the North Atlantic Council, the defense alliance's main decision-making body, to discuss Black Sea security.

"We will continue to stand united and ensure that we are ready and able to address any threat and to keep our one billion people safe," Hart said.

NATO's military spokesman, U.S. Army Col. Martin L. O'Donnell, said that in addition to sending the radar systems, drones, and patrol aircraft, allies will send or have sent intelligence agents and teams to conduct forensic examinations of explosives used against shipping vessels.

NATO has not attributed the attacks to any country.

The added presence comes in response to several Black Sea incidents in which drones struck cargo vessels.

Earlier this month, a number of cargo ships were hit off the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea in the space of one week.

On Oct. 13, the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity was sunk, and the Chelsea 3, sailing under a Maltese flag, registered in Odesa, and Ukrainian-owned, was also struck.

Drones struck two other cargo ships in the same waters on Oct. 6.

Bulgaria said that Russia was likely behind recent incidents off its waters. Russia's ambassador to Bulgaria, Eleonora Mitrofanova, said at the time that she had no information from the Russian Ministry of Defense about attacks on commercial vessels.

Tankers Struck Near Romanian Coast

On Oct. 15, drones struck two chemical tankers near Romania's Black Sea coast, setting them both ablaze.

The vessels were anchored near the Sulina Canal, which links the Danube River to the Black Sea. It is a major export route for Ukraine.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan called the situation in the waters "serious."

"Commercial ships are being attacked and sunk. Seafarers killed, injured, and missing, very close to the shores of Romania and Bulgaria," Dan said. "Lives, global trade, and critical infrastructure are at stake."

Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the European Affairs Department at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Russian newspaper Izvestia on Oct. 20 that against the backdrop of NATO's increased reconnaissance activities in the Black Sea, "the risk of incidents, including unintentional ones, is indeed increasing."

Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine border the Black Sea, and it is a vital shipping route.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine is also among the world's largest producers of grain and seed products - both use the Black Sea to export their goods. Consequently, the waterway has become a target for both sides in the ongoing war.

In recent months, Russian forces struck Ukrainian targets on the Black Sea, including the ports of Chornomorsk and Odesa.

Ukraine, for its part, has been targeting Russian grain and farming infrastructure in the waters.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 02:00

The Turd-Eaters: France Gives Us A Lesson On The Pillager Class

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

Over the years I have written frequently about what I call the “Pillager Class” and the “Producer Class” in an attempt to explore the reasons why certain people, groups and cultures always seem to turn to looting and destruction rather than building anything of value of their own.

It is a threat the west has been dealing with for thousands of years: We engineer and create and plan for the future, and instead of doing the same, the pillager class decides it’s easier to take what we have. Sometimes they are subtle like a parasite, and sometimes they’re not so subtle, like a swarm of locusts.

There are numerous theories on why this happens. Some think it stems from genetics, others from low IQ, others think it’s purely a cultural phenomenon, and some people argue that it’s a mere reactionary response to poverty. I suspect it’s a combination of all these things. At bottom though, it seems that certain groups are simply born with the pillager instinct; a subset of the populace perpetually stuck in scavenger limbo.

A good comparison to understand this is the classic “lottery winner” dilemma. Data suggests that around 70% of all lottery winners lose every dime they won in 5 years or less. It doesn’t matter if it’s thousands of dollars or millions of dollars; they can’t seem to keep their hands on wealth.

They go from cash windfall to bankruptcy and financial failure so quickly, winning the lottery is often treated like a curse rather than good luck. This happens because they are incapable of planning for tomorrow. Their brains are ostensibly stunted, and they can only think in terms of the present moment. They are doomed to live in poverty because they are incapable of growing beyond their most base desires.

The pillager class is very similar. You can take them out of the global ghettos, bring them to your home and give them every opportunity imaginable to improve their circumstances, and yet, they will always choose thievery and barbarism instead. The only thing that might change is the complexity of their crimes.

Somali daycare and medical fraud in the US is a prime example. Fake college degrees and the H-1B theft of American jobs by Indian scammers is another. The Muslim “Silent Jihad” – a strategy of invasion through false integration, is also a pressing threat.

These people aren’t thankful for the opportunities handed to them. They believe they are entitled. In every case they argue that it is Americans who should be grateful for the migrants on our soil, for it is they who “built our country” (Third world immigration to the US was highly restricted until the mid-1960s, so this claim is nonsense). They don’t care that their invasions will eventually kill the golden goose. Some of them WANT to kill the golden goose.

In France right now, migrant rioters say they are looting and burning because they want more. More access to education. A better cost of living standard. More influence in government. All of this is a lie; what they really want is an excuse to steal whatever isn’t bolted down and then tear apart the rest. But it’s interesting that their moral argument for ransacking Paris is that they are owed more freebies in a country that already took them in. This tells us all we need to know about them.

Beyond the average pillager’s tendency to covet what the west has, there is an element of conspiracy which feeds the multicultural influx. In my article “Pillagers vs Producers: There’s Only Two Ways To Save The Western World”, I look specifically at the alliance between third world cultures and Marxist activism. This alliance is the source of the radioactive sludge that is giving the west cancer. It is this partnership that fuels the rise of migrant incursions into the western world.

Those of us trying to fight against the organized demolition of our society are certainly not the first to see the danger coming. I recently came across a book which I can only call prophetic – A book which describes almost everything happening in the world today, and it was published back in 1973.

“The Camp Of The Saints”, by French author Jean Raspail, has been banned in many libraries around the world while the writer was accused of “racism” and “xenophobia” for his fictional depiction of a migrant onslaught in Europe, starting in France and leading to the fall of the west. The story is set in the near future and reads like a timeline of current events.

The root premise of the The Camp Of The Saints is that a demonic partnership exists between the liberal left and third world pillagers. The nihilistic progressives, reveling in atheism, Marxism and globalism, are represented by the character of “Ballan”, an arrogant and godless leftist philosopher very similar to the French Marxist, Jean Paul Sartre.

Ballan travels to the squalor of India as part of a “humanitarian mission” to send tens-of-thousands of migrant children to be adopted in Europe. The group is eventually accused of having nefarious motives to use pity and guilt to undermine the west. Ballan essentially admits to the plan, and screams at his accusers that borders, nations and cultures are “rubbish” that must be destroyed.

In his fury, Ballan marches onto the streets of Calcutta and stumbles across an Indian man referred to as the “Turd-Eater”; an absolutely pathetic specimen of a human being. The Turd Eater is part of the “untouchable class” in India and he works as a “dung roller”; a person who collects human feces from the streets and rolls the manure into bricks to be used as fuel for fires. He is also known to eat the bricks in times of starvation (all of this comes from very real practices in the recent history of India, unfortunately).

The Turd Eater is a large man charged with the care of his deformed son, who he often carries on his back. The child cannot speak and only makes incomprehensible noises. (Until the past decade, consanguineous marriages or inbred marriages in India represented around 23% of all marriages in the country. That rate has now supposedly fallen to 11% but remains an ongoing issue in rural areas).

Ballan sees the encounter as a miracle, a profound moment. He reasons that this man and his child have experienced the pinnacle of suffering and thus they possess the ultimate knowledge of humanity (This is a common delusion among leftists – the notion that the “oppressed classes” posses a superior knowledge of life and should thus be treated as precious, or perhaps even worshiped).

The Turd Eater dreams of going to the west, and Ballan seeks to help him. In the process, Ballan turns the Turd Eater into a demagogue, a leader of the migrant masses. The philosopher whispers dark rhetoric into the man’s ear, which the man then repeats, mixing eastern and Christian religious concepts into a theosophical gibberish about the East coming to save the Christian west. His deformed child becomes a messianic symbol of the movement, an “inspiration” for mass immigration.

Again, this is brilliantly prophetic. Today, the political left constantly feeds talking points to third worlders, teaching them to appeal to our Christian and Constitutional principles. How often in the US have we heard migrant representatives talk about the First Amendment, freedom of religion, America as a “melting pot”, and the conservative “Christian duty” to help those in need?

These are all carefully scripted manipulations designed to use our own ideals to destroy us. As I have covered in past articles, these claims are based on false and twisted versions of Biblical teachings and misrepresentations of the intentions of the Founding Fathers. At no point ever has western heritage called us to accept responsibility for the pillager class.

Ultimately, the character of Ballan falls victim to his own creation. A massive migrant army sets out under the command of the Turd Eater to ride an armada of flotillas to France, and Ballan seeks to join them. Instead, they beat him and drown him in the dirty and disgusting Ganges river simply because he is white.

Meanwhile, leftist politicians and activists in Europe welcome the migrant invasion with open arms in the name of empathy and humanitarianism. This leads to more flotillas and caravans flooding into the west. Eventually, westerners are culturally replaced as victims of genocide. The people who do try to fight back are accused of racism and their efforts are undermined by lack of strong leadership.

The leftists treat the destruction of the west as justified and they cheer the replacement, only to be replaced themselves. The story is about the ideological self-sabotage of the west through liberalism. It is a warning from 50 years ago that is coming true today.

The one thing that The Camp Of The Saints misses is the reality of an underlying and malicious agenda – The globalist influence, the NGO funding, the UN backing, all the elements of power that are maneuvering and helping the third world replacement to happen. They aren’t creating the pillager class, it already exists and has always existed. Rather, the globalists have identified the pillager class as a useful weapon and they are aiming the barbarian horde at the US and Europe to fulfill the Marxist vision of a borderless, homogenized socialist empire.

This is a righteous act according to progressives, because of the West’s colonial past. In their minds, westerners ARE the pillagers. As Marxist Jean Paul Sartre once said:

“But to become natives altogether, our soil must be occupied by a formerly colonized people and we must starve of hunger…”

“You will be convinced that it would be better for you to be a native at the uttermost depths of his misery than to be a former settler.”

The demonization of western settlement relies on an ignorance of history and a romanticized image of “indigenous peoples.” The west brought technology, infrastructure and an alternative to the savagery of the ancient world. There are many disturbing accounts of these archaic cultures written by explorers, missionaries and native witnesses. They read like the most grotesque horror stories you can imagine.

Brutal slavery, torture, mass murder, child sacrifice, rivers of blood, the stench of death permeating the air, all of it at the hands of more powerful tribes subjugating smaller tribes. The old world was a pagan hell on Earth. The average leftist growing up in the unprecedented security and sanity of the modern west cannot comprehend the nightmares that existed before settlers arrived on the shores of Africa, Asia and the Americas.

When we exited some of these places in the name of “social justice”, we left behind stunning infrastructure. Billions upon billions of dollars in advanced systems and industry, clean water, waste management, healthcare and transportation.

The natives ended up dismantling all of it out of greed or they let it rot out of laziness. Many countries reverted economically and technologically. Even nations like India which still maintain deep trade and political ties to the west are giant dung heaps otherwise, with mountains of garbage and feces in the streets. They simply cannot run their civilizations properly, and so, they all want to travel to the west.

It is time to put an end to the western self-loathing and nihilism championed by the political left. We need to accept the fact that our culture is superior in design, or at least it was until the progressives got hold of it. And, ultimately, we need to adopt a philosophy of selectivity, merit and a refusal to compromise. If this means deporting third worlders in large numbers, so be it. If it means booting out militant leftists and sending them to an island somewhere, so be it.

They declared war on us first. There is no rule that says we have to let them win. As Jean Raspial notes in The Camp Of The Saints:

“In the strange war that was coming, victory would go to those who loved themselves the most…”

The novel describes the death of the west as suicide by empathy; a condemnation of the liberal tendency to view the dregs of the world as our moral responsibility. But it is not the responsibility of the west to save the world. If we did save it, the only practical method would be colonialism.

Bringing the west to the third world is the only way to pull them out of the gutter. Bringing the third world to the west is a sure way to drag us all into the gutter. After a decade of invasion by the pillager classes into the US and Europe, after the recent infestation of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, after the riots and looting we are seeing in France this week, the terrible end result is predictable and undeniable.

The truth is, if the downfall of our civilization continues, it is only because we allowed it to happen.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 23:50

Israel Detains NY Congressional Nominee In West Bank Olive Grove, Sets Free After Learning Who He Is

Some candidates kiss babies two weeks before an election. Brad Lander picked olives in the West Bank.

Lander, the former New York City comptroller and the Democratic nominee in deep-blue NY-10, posted this at 6:29am ET on Wednesday:

I've been detained by the IDF, along with a group of rabbis & volunteers. We were simply harvesting olives in a grove near Nehalim in the West Bank.

The occupation is a crime under international law. Harvesting olives isn't a crime under any law I know. pic.twitter.com/r7B5Q3RvjY

— Brad Lander (@bradlander) October 21, 2026

Watch the video.

Brad Lander speaks before being detained at the olive harvest. Video via The Guardian.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani chimed in, writing on X "Harvesting olives is not illegal. The occupation is," adding "[O]ther New Yorkers remain detained, and they must be released immediately ... The same Israeli government detaining them has committed a horrific genocide against Palestinians, killing more than 74,000 people over the last few years alone. "

Today, Brad Lander, rabbis, and other New Yorkers accompanied Palestinian farmers during the olive harvest. For that, they were detained by the Israeli government.

Harvesting olives is not illegal. The occupation is.

I am thankful that Brad has been released. But other New...

— Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@NYCMayor) October 21, 2026

In other words, a brief detention in a disputed olive grove has turned into an Israel-vs-New-York-City diplomatic spat, two weeks before the midterms and six days before Israel votes.

"Released Once The Matter Was Brought To Our Attention"

According to NPR, which had a team on the ground in Nahalin, Israeli forces declared a closed military zone around an olive grove near the settlement of Beitar Illit and detained Lander along with about 80 American and Israeli rabbis and activists. Two Israeli lawyers told NPR it was the largest mass detention of activists in the West Bank in at least a decade. The IDF's explanation for letting only one of them go was refreshingly honest:

"Regarding reports of the detention of a congressional candidate, we note that he was released once the matter was brought to our attention."

Lander put it his own way: he said he was released "with a 'warning,' apparently because of my public profile (I told them I wasn't even a congressmember yet, just a nominee)." The rest of the group, from the Rabbis for Human Rights delegation, was still being held at a police station in Beitar Illit hours later, according to the Times of Israel.

About That Map...

Here is where it gets interesting. The IDF told CBS New York that "harvesting in this area requires a request to be submitted to the relevant authorities in advance," and Israel Police said the group had entered an area near the settlement fence that needed approval. Lander called it "a bald-face lie."

The Times of Israel's US bureau chief then reported that a map handed out to Palestinian farmers by Israel's own Civil Administration shows the spot where the group was detained did not require prior coordination. Once reporters started posting the map, the IDF's new explanation was that the area isn't marked because Palestinians had never asked to harvest there before. Very reassuring.

Jerusalem's diplomats weren't having any of it. Israel's Foreign Ministry hit back a little before noon ET:

This was not about harvesting olives.
It was about harvesting headlines.

Brad Lander's latest stunt is nothing more than a calculated political provocation.

Lander traveled to a foreign country, deliberately entered a restricted security area, and participated in an...

— Israel Foreign Ministry (@IsraelMFA) October 21, 2026

To be fair, the ministry has a point about the optics. Lander's own posts framed the trip as an effort to shed light on the occupation, and a candidate who knows his district is safe has little to lose and plenty of cable hits to gain. The ministry's claim that his team was told ahead of time that coordination was needed hasn't been independently confirmed, but it hasn't been denied either. And Mamdani's "genocide" line is exactly the kind of thing that earned him bipartisan blowback over his Oct. 7 statement just two weeks ago.

Not all the criticism came from the left, though. Israeli MK Gilad Kariv warned (via the Times of Israel) that if someone doesn't stop "this madness, it will cause enormous damage to relations with Jews of the United States - and entirely justifiably so."

Who Harvested What

Lander's camp says a future congressman was hauled off for helping a farmer pick his own olives. Israel says it was a planned stunt in a restricted zone. Our summary is less so: by detaining 80 people and releasing only the one with a press office, Israel handed Lander and Mamdani a bigger platform than any olive grove could, and its own map undercut the explanation. With Israelis voting Oct. 27, Americans voting Nov. 3, and dozens of rabbis still in custody when this was written, we'll check back on whether the other detainees are deported, which would keep this story going right through both elections.

Then again, if harvesting headlines was the goal, it's been a bumper crop.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 23:25

Ukraine's Anti-Graft Cops Raid The Central Bank... So Where's The Gold?

Ukraine's wartime corruption saga, which so far has swept through the state nuclear monopoly, the president's former chief of staff and the prosecutor general's office, has now reached the one institution that was supposed to be above it all: the central bank.

On Wednesday morning, detectives from the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), working with the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO), searched the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) headquarters in Kyiv and the home of what the bureau coyly called "one of its employees." According to a law enforcement source cited by the Kyiv Independent, the premises searched belonged to Governor Andriy Pyshnyi himself, and MP Danylo Hetmantsev said as much publicly: the "employee" was the governor.

The NBU confirmed the searches and said it was operating as usual. By evening, Pyshnyi was on Facebook insisting that, per the court order, the criminal case concerns neither the central bank's activities nor his duties as governor, and that the searches turned up no evidence of wrongdoing by him or any NBU staffer. The central bank also denied rumors that he had resigned. Which, as anyone who has followed Ukrainian politics knows, is usually what happens right before someone resigns, or is resigned. 

Follow The Sense Bank

So what are the detectives actually looking for? NABU hasn't said, but lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak, who first publicized the raid, says it is tied to two cases: the Karpatnaftokhim petrochemical complex in western Ukraine, and the running of state-owned Sense Bank by outside individuals. Zhelezniak also called on Pyshnyi to step down.

Sense Bank is the thread worth pulling. The lender, formerly Alfa-Bank Ukraine and part of Mikhail Fridman's empire, was nationalized after Russia invaded. It has since become a recurring character in the Energoatom kickback probe, the largest corruption case of Zelensky's tenure. Prosecutors say a Hr 150 million ($3.4 million) bail payment for former Energy and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko was routed through Sense Bank with allegedly laundered money, and in August they charged Zelensky's former deputy chief of staff Iryna Mudra, Sense Bank CEO Oleksiy Stupak and others over the scheme. The NBU, as supervisor, has been criticized for not stopping it.

The direct link to Pyshnyi: Sense Bank's former supervisory board chairman told a parliamentary inquiry that Vasyl Veselyi, a figure in the leaked NABU "Mindich tapes," was appointed to the bank on Pyshnyi's recommendation. Pyshnyi denies making any such recommendation. In those same tapes, Veselyi and businessman Oleksandr Tsukerman reportedly discussed influencing board appointments at the bank and talking to Zelensky's then-chief of staff Andriy Yermak about it.

That last name matters, because Pyshnyi got the job in October 2022 as a Yermak ally, after his predecessor Kyrylo Shevchenko abruptly resigned and then said NABU had accused him in a Hr 206 million embezzlement case at a state lender. Pravda reported in August that Zelensky was already unhappy with Pyshnyi and that his dismissal had been discussed. So two of the last two NBU governors have now had anti-graft detectives at the door. Not a great hit rate for the institution that also happens to guard the nation's gold reserves.

And as a bizarre coda, on the very same day Hungarian authorities detained György Matolcsy, Viktor Orbán's longtime central bank governor, whose son is the subject of a separate probe into corruption at the Hungarian central bank. Central bankers across the region probably had a quiet dinner tonight.

Speaking Of Reserves... Where Is The Gold?

Which brings us to the question nobody in Kyiv was asked today. To be clear upfront: nothing reported so far ties the NBU probe to Ukraine's reserves, and Pyshnyi says the case has nothing to do with the bank's operations. What follows is speculation, labeled as such. But if the central bank's supervisory function was compromised by people with access to the president's office, it seems fair to ask what else was sitting within reach.

On paper, the answer is reassuring. Ukraine's international reserves hit a record $57.7 billion as of Feb. 1 (unclear how much of that is US "donations") and monetary gold made up 8.5% of them, up from 5.7% a year earlier, thanks largely to gold's price surge rather than any buying spree. The World Gold Council puts Ukraine's holdings at 27.37 tonnes, unchanged through the second quarter, worth roughly $4.9 billion as of January per CEIC data.

Holdings peaked at 42.6 tonnes in early 2014, fell to a nine-year low within months, and have only partly recovered since.

Long-time readers will recall that Ukraine's gold has a habit of wandering off at moments of political upheaval. On March 10, 2014, days after Yanukovych fled, we flagged an entirely unsubstantiated report from pro-Russian outlet Iskra that the reserves had been loaded onto an unmarked plane at Boryspil and flown to the US, and asked whether the price of Ukraine's "liberation" was the handover of its gold to the Fed.

Was The Price Of Ukraine's "Liberation" The Handover Of Its Gold To The Fed? http://t.co/9loLVQl0dZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 11, 2014

The NBU denied it. Then in November 2014, then-Ukraine Central Bank chief Valeria Gontareva casually admitted on TV that gold was down to about $1 billion of reserves, which, on our math at the time, implied far less than that, and we wrote that Ukraine admits its gold is gone (Gontareva currently now faces Up to 12 Years in Prison and Confiscation of Property in Case Involving Collaboration with Russia).

Here is a transcript of the clip above:

• 0:00 The NBU firmed the hryvnia by only 2 kopecks, to 15.75 per dollar. On the interbank market the dollar sold at 16.05 and the euro at about 20.
• 0:14 The devaluation sent gold up 5% in a day. A gram of top-purity gold now costs 665 hryvnias, an all-time high, and the price has nearly doubled since January.
• 0:38 Gold is disappearing from the NBU's vaults and is only a tiny share of the reserves. Gontareva said so herself on Channel 5 (5 Kanal).
• 0:49 Gontareva says "Actually, practically, if you want to know, physically there isn't any. There's a small amount of gold bars, but it's literally, probably, up to 1%.".
• 1:00 She didn't explain how it happened. Official NBU data show almost $1B of gold at the end of October, about 8% of reserves, or eight times what she says.
• 1:20 Even by the official figures, holdings fell by more than a third in October alone. Gold prices are falling, so the NBU is selling into the drop and losing money.
• 1:38 The gold was built up under former governor Serhiy Arbuzov, who decided in early 2011 to raise gold's share of reserves.
• 1:57 Arbuzov, in an archive clip, says: "Roughly 21 tonnes of gold. That's several billion dollars… these are reserves that aren't subject to the changes paper money goes through, so the value will only grow."
• 2:08 The bet made several hundred million dollars by late 2012, and the gold sat in a secure vault that journalists toured two years earlier.
• 2:35 How the gold is now vanishing from the vaults is unclear.

A week later the central bank admitted the outflow and called it an "optimization of reserve structure," which is probably the most central-banker phrase ever coined for "it's gone."

NY Fed to Ukraine: "If you like your gold, we can keep it." http://t.co/RVgAVcqIqO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 18, 2014

IMF data later showed holdings dropping to 23.6 tonnes in November 2014, a nine-year low, from over 42 tonnes at the start of the year. The official explanation was sales to prop up reserves, and by December lawmakers were turning on their own central bankers over it. Weeks later came the cherry on top: the NBU had been conned into buying painted lead bricks as gold, about $300,000 worth, allegedly with help from someone on the inside.

Ukraine Central Bank Conned Into Swapping Its Gold For Lead Bricks http://t.co/mYdQ6OUsDZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 22, 2014

So where is the gold now? Probably in one of three places, and here's where the speculation starts:

1. Where they say it is. The boring and most likely answer: the bulk sits in NBU vaults or, more plausibly given a war with missiles landing on Kyiv, in custody abroad. Wartime central banks routinely park bullion at the Bank of England, the New York Fed or the BIS, and the NBU has never published a bar list or a vault-by-vault breakdown. That opacity was a feature during the war. It looks a bit different on the day detectives are walking out of the governor's office with (heavy) boxes.

2. On the road. Ukraine's physical gold and cash do move, and we know this because one shipment got hijacked. In March, Hungary's counterterrorism unit stopped two Oschadbank armored vans near Budapest carrying $40 million, €35 million and nine kilograms of gold from Vienna to Kyiv, with Orbán accusing Kyiv of bankrolling the Hungarian opposition. Hungary's own tax authority later traced it to a documented Raiffeisen deal and closed the money-laundering case, and it is now Orbán, not Ukraine, facing a potential criminal case over the seizure. Still, it was a rare look at the logistics of state-owned precious metal moving across Europe in vans, and a reminder that gold, unlike a SWIFT transfer, actually has to be driven somewhere.

3. Pledged, swapped or lent. This is the one worth watching. Central banks under funding stress have a long history of quietly using gold as collateral, via swaps or leasing, while still reporting it as reserves. Nothing suggests the NBU has done this (or that it hasn't). But if the institution's governance was porous enough for outsiders to steer board seats at a state bank, independent confirmation that 27 tonnes are allocated, unencumbered and physically where they're supposed to be would seem like cheap insurance. Maybe the IMF, which has a seat at every Ukrainian table these days, could ask.

A Run On Trust, Not On Gold

For now, the more immediate risk is institutional rather than metallic. The NBU's independence is one of the few things Western lenders have consistently praised in Kyiv, and the IMF program and the EU's Ukraine Facility both lean on it. A governor ousted under a corruption cloud, with the president's office reportedly already wanting him gone, would hand critics of continued aid exactly the narrative they've been building since the Energoatom tapes leaked.

And if it turns out the case really does have nothing to do with the central bank, well, NABU just raided the head of the monetary authority of a country at war for a case unrelated to his job. Either way, someone in Kyiv is about to have a very uncomfortable meeting with the IMF mission.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 23:07

How The NYT Hid Big Pharma PR Titan Jack Leslie In Plain Sight

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

New York Times reporter Sheryl Gay Stolberg wrote one of the most hilarious, misleading pieces I've seen in recent months, castigating the NIH for a new vaccine injury clinic based on a leaked statement by Jack Leslie, a senior advisor to the PR firm Weber Shandwick which represents most major vaccine manufacturers.

I'm not joking. This is the journalism I get for my paid subscription to the New York Times.

Like most senior executives at the global PR firm Weber Shandwick, Jack Leslie makes buckets of money helping corporations sell themselves and their products to the American public. In the last handful of years, Weber Shandwick's clients have included the bulk of the global vaccine giants including Pfizer, Moderna, GSK, Sanofi, Novartis, and Eli Lilly.

But when he's not raking in oodles of cash repping corporate America, Leslie also takes on some unpaid healthcare positions as further leverage to market his lucrative pharma clients, such as heading the board of the NIH Clinical Center Research Hospital Board. The board met on Friday morning and Leslie's first order of business, I am told, was voting to castigate HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for establishing a new NIH clinic to study vaccine injuries.

Leslie then leaked his statement and the vote to Sheryl Gay Stolberg at the New York Times, whose story appeared within hours.

Stolberg's reporting - or whatever it was - failed to disclose that Leslie works for Weber Shandwick which advises pretty much every vaccine company on the planet. Here's how Stolberg describes him to New York Times readers:

Mr. Leslie, a former chairman of the global public relations firm Weber Shandwick, has advised the World Health Organization and numerous health-oriented philanthropies, and government bodies under presidents of both parties. He also chairs the board of the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation, and advises global health institutes at two universities, Duke and Georgetown.

And here's what a tiny amount of suspicion and about 45 seconds on Google got me when I searched Leslie's background: his current biography at Weber Shandwick. Note the plaudits for Leslie's work advising vaccine manufacturers Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Sanofi.

Back in 2022, I reported that Weber Shandwick had won a $50 million contract to embed their personnel at the CDC's vaccine center and advise physicians on COVID vaccines, while Weber Shandwick simultaneously had contracts with Pfizer and Moderna to promote their COVID vaccines. I caught one Weber Shandwick employee writing on LinkedIn that his duties at the CDC "focuses on boosting vaccination rates for flu, HPV, whooping cough, and COVID-19."

Days after my report, Senator Rand Paul sent the CDC a letter demanding that the agency turn over copies of their contract with Weber Shandwick, as well as the names of all of Weber Shandwick employees who were working at the CDC. A source inside HHS told me last year that, shortly after Kennedy was sworn in as HHS Secretary, Weber Shandwick's lucrative contract with the CDC was cancelled.

NIH established the Clinical Center Research Hospital Board in 2016 to advise NIH leadership on safety and regulatory compliance, and the NIH Director chooses the board members. Francis Collins appointed Jack Leslie to the board in 2022, and he was made chair in 2024.

The board's federal charter states that members must meet the following criteria: Nationally recognized leaders in sectors related to the NIH Clinical Center's duties, research hospital administration, clinical care, safety and quality, clinical and research compliance, or clinical research.

However, two individuals are chosen if they have been patients in clinical research studies.

I sent Francis Collins an email through his public relations rep asking why he chose Jack Leslie as a board member and how Leslie's background in pharmaceutical PR qualified him to be on the NIH Clinical Center's board. "Can you explain your thinking on that?" I asked Dr. Collins.

Collins did not respond to repeated requests for an explanation.

I also sent questions to Jack Leslie through his Weber Shandwick email asking who his current pharmaceutical clients are. However, Leslie also did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 22:10

Pezeshkian Now Says Sanctions Must Be Peeled Off Before US Dialogue Returns

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appeared to add yet another stipulation to Tehran's growing list of demands that must be met if it is to get back to the negotiating table with the US.

Pezeshkian stated that some Washington-led sanctions must be peeled back before direct dialogue can resume again. He voiced that the constantly ratcheting economic warfare is closing diplomatic avenues, and so there must be a 'practical' easing of pressure to set an atmosphere of honest talks.

"Threats and sanctions must be removed in practice to pave the way for dialogue. We cannot increase the intensity of sanctions and pressure every day, close the avenues of interaction, and at the same time talk about negotiations," he wrote on X.

Xinhua

He is perhaps taking note of what's happening in US-Russia relations, where President Trump just waived the sweeping Graham sanctions package just ahead of when they were expected to be enacted. Trump also earlier this month facilitated the diesel release deal with Putin.

Out of these overtures has come an increase in direct Moscow-Washington dialogue. It seems Pezeshkian is holding out for the possibility of a scenario like this, depending on how desperate the White House becomes for a peace deal.

While there's no doubt that Iran's economy is under immense pressure, and average people are feeling the pain on a daily basis - especially given the plunging Rial amid runaway inflation - Iranian leaders say the country can endure in this wartime state of survival for at least years more.

The Pentagon and the Trump administration have been saying something different, however.

US Central Command chief Brad Cooper claimed last week that "The financial strain on Iran’s military has become so significant that there are reports of Iran-aligned militia groups across the region withholding payments to their soldiers in order to funnel money back to the IRGC, which also is not paying its troops."

At various times over the last several months, Iranian officials have admitted the deep financial pain within society and impacting government coffers, also amid the US naval blockade which prevents Iranian oil from reaching global markets.

Yet Iranian leaders have remained defiant...

Iran has little hope that current talks yield progress--instead, it is preparing for US escalation, which it sees as likely. Araghchi also issues a thinly veiled threat: any escalation "will put civilian lives and the wellbeing of all regional states and the global economy at great risk." https://t.co/cbLjyAgn0R

— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) October 21, 2026

For example, Iran's Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati said earlier this month, "Despite all these pressures, the Iranian economy has demonstrated very good resilience, and the claim that Iran’s economy is collapsing is nothing more than an illusion."

It continues to be a high stakes standoff and game of each warring side waiting the other out, seeing how much economic and political cost can be inflicted.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 21:45

Oz Says HHS Is Deferring $1.2 Billion More From California Medicaid Funding

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Medicare and Medicaid Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz announced in the Oval Office on Tuesday that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is deferring an additional $1.2 billion in Medicaid funding from California over concerns of widespread fraud in its state healthcare programs.

The federal government's withholding of Medicaid payments to California now totals more than $3.3 billion.

"They just got the note, and we're doing that because of the growth of personal care services in California," Oz said.

"California has been growing that program 24 percent in the last three years. That is twice the rate of every other state average in the country. Impossible for us to understand how that could be so."

President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and independent journalist Nick Shirley joined Oz at the Oval Office event on Tuesday.

Trump administration officials credited Shirley for his work in exposing healthcare fraud in Minnesota last December, which launched him into the national spotlight as an independent government watchdog.

"I just was concerned about the well-being of our tax dollars," Shirley said during the White House event. "There's never been an incentive for anyone to ever expose fraud. In fact, when I expose fraud, instead of the mainstream media investigating the fraud, they investigated me, and people actually, in fact, wanted to kill me after I exposed the fraud."

After his video highlighted alleged fraud in Minnesota's daycare programs, Shirley made additional videos in New York and California.

In Oz's announcement Tuesday, he clarified that the deferment affects California's Medicaid payments directed to personal care services.

"Just that one little area where you're paying someone to carry groceries upstairs for your mom, which many of you would carry groceries upstairs for your mom for free, I would think, but in California, they'll pay you a lot of money for it, and it's actually run by the counties," Oz said.

Trump signed an executive order on March 16 to officially create an anti-fraud task force to be headed by Vance.

As part of Tuesday's White House event, Trump and Vance announced a $25 million Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program (WHIP), designed to reward Americans who help report misuses of U.S. tax dollars.

Under the program, citizens who provide tips that lead to a successful fraud conviction or a significant federal enforcement action are eligible to receive 1 percent of the amount of fraud discovered, Trump said.

The Justice Department will oversee WHIP, and Americans can submit tips online at fraud.gov.

"For the first time ever, there'll be an incentive for people to actually go out and make that change inside their own community," Shirley said about WHIP. "I hope by today, millions of people are empowered inside of the United States to go out and actually make a change inside your own community, and you'll actually be rewarded for saving America money."

Oz announced that the latest action against California's Medicaid program was on behalf of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who said on July 21 that CMS was withholding more than $867 million in Medicaid payments to California.

"Every dollar the federal government allows to be lost to fraud, waste, and abuse is a dollar stolen from American patients and the American taxpayer," Kennedy said at the time. "That's money that should be going to legitimate healthcare."

In May, Vice President JD Vance announced $1.3 billion would be withheld from California's Medicaid payments over potentially fraudulent billing patterns.

"We want to protect these programs for the kids and the families who need them," Vance previously said. "We want to ensure that the American taxpayer isn't getting fleeced."

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has called the withholding of funds politically motivated. His office did not respond to a request for comment about the latest deferment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 21:20

45% Of College Students Justify Violence To Stop 'Hate Speech': Survey

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

A new survey finds that nearly half of undergraduate students support censorship, shout-downs, and physical violence to suppress what they consider “hate speech” or offensive ideas.

Fox News reports that the 2026 National Undergraduate Student Survey, released this month by the Buckley Institute, shows that 45 percent of undergraduate students surveyed believe physical violence can be justified to stop so-called hate speech. That number is up 6 points from 2025 and ties the all-time record set in 2023.

The survey, which polled 803 full-time undergraduate students at four-year public and private colleges across the United States, revealed several record-high metrics concerning free expression on campus, according to Yahoo.

A little over a year after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, 1 in 4 college students think “It should not be a surprise that his words had consequences.”

Our new survey found increasing undergrad comfort with violence and criminal prosecution for speech they don’t like. https://t.co/mxeoZ4up8Z

— Buckley Institute (@BuckleyInst) October 18, 2026

Other takeaways from the survey were that 46 percent of students support shout downs and 40 percent believe that offensive speech should be subject to criminal prosecution.

Some 42 percent of respondents said that political comments they disagree with can be harmful to their mental health, up 4 points from last year; the highest reading in the 5 years this question has been monitored.

The findings prompted Cornerstone University President Dr. Gerson Moreno-Riaño to warn that higher education has “lost its way.”

Moreno-Riaño told Fox News Digital:

American colleges and universities for a long time now have really ceased to form students morally and are teaching resentment, teaching grievance politics, teaching violent entitlement. So, when graduates leave these universities, they leave with that. They’re not leaving with a moral formation of their hearts, their minds, their lives. They’re leaving with resentment.

Moreno-Riaño also cautioned that many colleges and universities are preparing “socialists and Marxists” who want entitlement and to “destroy the system” rather than “build it, make it, refine it and improve it.”

The Cornerstone University president also stressed that American higher education “has to shift,” saying it needs to “take moral formation seriously and not be grounded in entitlement and grievance culture.”

The Buckley Institute survey was conducted online between Sept. 5 and Sept. 14 by Inquire LLC and included 803 full-time undergraduate students under age 25 attending four-year public or private colleges and universities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 16:40