When Uncle Sam Turns Venture Capitalist, What Could Go Wrong?

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

The battery recycler Ascend Elements was riding high in 2023, flush with hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding.

The seed money provided to the Massachusetts company, which launched in 2017, was one of several large bets the Biden administration placed on the green future as it essentially created a venture capital arm at the Department of Energy and other agencies. In the movies, VCs almost always score big through their early investments in future behemoths (e.g., PayPal or Meta when it was Facebook). In real life, those jackpots are the exception, not the rule - many of the deals go south.

Alas, Washington isn't Hollywood, and the government isn't spending celluloid dollars. In April, Ascend Elements filed for bankruptcy, leaving U.S. taxpayers out nearly $320 million.

Government funding of private companies is receiving new scrutiny as the Trump administration is upping the ante on such efforts by demanding that the feds receive an equity stake for their largesse. While this approach is leading the government into uncharted waters, experts say the operative concept - using taxpayer money to make risky bets on private companies - has a long and troubled history. The bankruptcy of Solyndra, a maker of niche solar panels the Obama administration had given $535 million in 2009, became shorthand for the problems that occur when government tries to pick winners and losers in the marketplace.

"It generally doesn't work," said Steven Neil Kaplan, a professor of entrepreneurship and innovation at the University of Chicago's Booth business school. "There are three problems with it, namely that the government doesn't usually have the best information; two, it's going to be political; and three, the incentives aren't in place to pay for performance."

It is still too early to assess the Trump administration's investments in private corporations, but the hundreds of billions of dollars shoveled out the door by the Biden administration through the Investment Infrastructure and Jobs Act provide some insight into the challenges the government faces when it turns into a venture capitalist. RealClearInvestigations' review of one sliver of that spending - $1.68 billion in grants awarded in 2023 under the umbrella of "Energy, Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Energy Programs, Energy" - demonstrates how difficult it can be to follow the money and assess the impact when taxpayer funds are doled out to private corporations.

Foreign Assets

The grants reviewed by RCI all went to companies involved in the electric vehicle battery market, either in terms of making the batteries themselves or generating the various elements that comprise an EV battery. Unlike the billions doled out by Biden's EPA through its Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund - which made the regulatory agency a large grant maker for the first time - these Energy Department deals went to existing for-profit companies rather than startups or newly formed nonprofit organizations. RCI's analysis of the DOE grants did not find any of the glaring political connections it uncovered in the EPA disbursements.

Ascend Elements marked the biggest taxpayer bet within that package, but there were several others of $100 million or more, according to the Treasury Department's usaspending.gov. The grants represent venture capital-like moves by the Biden administration to jumpstart and expand renewable energy initiatives in the name of fighting global warming.

Although taxpayer money is presumably spent in accordance with the government's enumerated duties and to benefit Americans, some of the large grants went to companies that are enjoying more support abroad than at home.

For example, Synesqo Specialty Polymers USA, a branch of a Belgian company traded on European exchanges, received $178.2 million. Mike Finelli, Syensqo's chief technology and innovation officer, highlighted the company's moves in Europe rather than the U.S. in his response to RCI.

"Syensqo has recently launched a new company in Europe to help scale up commercial demonstration of advanced materials for solid-state batteries in Europe," he said. "In the U.S., although the policy and cost environment is supportive, market growth is evolving at a measured pace. ... Importantly, the U.S. Department of Energy grant awarded in 2023 remains active, with discussions ongoing, and we continue to serve the market from our existing production in France."

Similarly, $100 million went to Group 14, a private company in Washington state that is "building the world's largest factory for advanced silicon battery material."

The company, which says it has raised roughly $1 billion for the Washington facility it hopes to open this year, acquired an ownership stake in a South Korea factory last year.

Group 14 did respond to a request for comment.

Critics of directing government funds to private companies say it can also be difficult to assess the impact of the grants - and how the money was spent - because corporations are not obligated to answer the public's questions about their businesses. While the taxpayers may have provided a substantial chunk of these companies' financing, they are responsible to their shareholders, not taxpayers.

The "Market Test"

Walter Block, an economist on the faculty of Loyola University in New Orleans, said the Energy Department's 2023 grants also raised related questions about whether taxpayers are bankrolling companies that have not yet passed "the market test."

"The government shouldn't be involved in any of that," said Block, a proponent of the Austrian school of economics, which prioritizes free-market principles. "Taxpayers have a right to ask how and why these things were done if the company isn't viable in the market."

Final grades on some of the outstanding grants can be difficult to judge when, as is the case with several of these grants, the recipients are private companies. Synesqo, however, is traded on European markets. When it received a large injection of federal cash in 2023, its stock traded near $95 per share, but its value has since declined by nearly 30%.

And to Kaplan's point about who is making the grant decisions, that remains a mystery. Although Energy Secretary Chris Wright has trumpeted the cancellation of various Biden-era deals, the department did not respond to RCI's multiple requests for comment. Synesqo was the only company to respond to questions.

The hope that the government, with its vast resources, can goose innovation is not new. The U.S. government's longstanding support for basic research has led to many medical and technological breakthroughs, including radar and the Internet.

Many of those achievements, however, have come through more traditional grants to America's great research universities, and a separate batch of such grants was also part of Biden's green energy spending. Governments at all levels have also sought to spur business development and innovation by offering tax incentives, though usually with mixed results.

Venture capital, essentially seed money, is different and unlike more familiar government contracts, such as those for defense contracts or highways and roads. Those arrangements carry their own ethical temptations, ranging from pay-to-play schemes to overt political support, that have made politics infamous, from Tammany Hall to modern-day Chicago or Louisiana. It is those sorts of alleged insider deals that were leveled against the Biden family and now against President Trump and his offspring.

Necessary Investments

Still, not everyone is opposed to the government making admittedly risky bets. Some consulting companies actually pitch businesses on considering federal sources for venture capital.

Fred Block, a sociology professor at the University of California, Davis, whose work has been applied to venture capital models, notes that some level of success has been achieved by the Small Business Administration's Small Business Innovation Research Program.

In addition, a 2006 study by Block and some colleagues on 100 "winners" picked by the trade publication Research & Development showed that at some point in their development, federal money had assisted 88 of them.

"The key point is the necessity of government involvement with cutting-edge projects," Block told RCI. He noted how private research entities like RCA's once-fabled Sarnoff Corporation are no longer around.

"You have to have collaboration between different kinds of specialists and no private company can afford to have all those people on staff," he said.

Kaplan had also cited the SBA loans as a case where government venture money often bears fruit, but those are much smaller investments and must adhere to strict guidelines. And unlike the Energy Department grants under Biden or some of the moves made by the Trump administration, SBA decisions are made by teams of professionals rather than an anonymous federal apparatus. Again, the issue comes back to the quality of information available and who makes the calls.

"They've developed the expertise," UC Davis's Block said. "Now that appears to be gone. Who knows who or how decisions are being made now? Maybe Trump makes them in the middle of the night."

Big Money for Recipients

While none of the individual deals stand out in terms of the federal government's enormous spending, they often represent big money for individual recipients: The $82 million that went to Cirba Solutions, a battery recycling outfit in Charlotte, N.C., for instance, amounted to nearly twice the company's estimated annual revenue of $39.5 million.

That sort of proportion also shows how these Department of Energy grants are different from similar big economic moves Washington has made, such as propping up the savings and loan and auto industries, or trying to keep markets solvent.

Critics of both the gigantic spending on green energy specifically, and the effort to wrench the American economy away from the fossil fuels that power most of it, warned that more Solyndras are possible.

"What's the point of Congress authorizing billions of spending with almost no oversight?" asked Daniel Turner, the executive director of Power The Future, a conservative group concentrating on rural power. "Of course we should be concerned about what might happen. It's absurd to have funneled so much money to green technology companies without market approval."

Yet even in proven markets, the risks inherent in the government taking huge stakes in companies are problematic.

"When there's so much money involved, are there conditions?" asked Thomas Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance, which does not accept government donations. "There's something very pernicious, very suspect about the idea of the government being venture capitalists, and there's so much more at stake when it's taxpayer dollars involved."

There is also the possibility that a company backed by federal money makes it big, in which case new questions arise about equity, how the government may define success as venture capitalists, and whether the government may try to become an active investor, looking to influence personnel and other decisions at the company. Those factors are on top of the hoary conflicts of interest that have long bedeviled government moves.

Those questions are likely to multiply in the coming years as both parties seem more open to the government owning stock in private companies. The Trump administration has already received billions of dollars in equity stakes for money funneled to private companies (mostly tied to national security), and Sen. Bernie Sanders has introduced legislation that could give the U.S. a 50% ownership of the largest AI companies. Neither the Trump administration nor Sanders' office responded to requests for comment.

Kaplan outlined some steps the government could take to improve the process, such as only backing companies that have already passed "the market test" or shown an ability to raise significant capital. Even then, however, the same terms should attach to a government grant that do to the private investments, and thus the entire practice is problematic and best avoided, he said.

"It's just rife with conflict and bad information," Kaplan told RCI. "For a private investor, if you're negative, you go out of business. But if it's the government and it goes negative, they raise your taxes."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 14:15

Federal Judge Orders DHS Not To Obey Order From Another Judge

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on July 8 said the Trump administration must not comply with an order from another federal judge and must continue to have key functions of an immigration database disabled.

The Department of Homeland Security building in Washington on March 25, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Judge Sparkle Sooknanan of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said that officials with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and other agencies shall keep disabled the ability to look up Social Security numbers and carry out mass uploads in the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system.

Sooknanan ordered the Trump administration in June to disable the features, finding that recent updates to the database violated privacy laws by disclosing Americans' Social Security numbers and other sensitive information.

Sooknanan said on July 8 that arguments from the government in favor of pausing her previous order were unpersuasive, including the argument that highlighted a July 7 ruling from Judge T. Kent Wetherell II of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida that ordered DHS to enable the functions for four states under a 2025 settlement that he had approved.

Wetherell had noted that he could have waited until the case in Washington proceeded, but that the four states had presented "unrebutted evidence showing that they are suffering real and concrete harm every day that passes without the disabled features of the SAVE system."

He said that Sooknanan could have deferred to his previous determination that the functions were lawful, which was reached, he said, in part because the Social Security Act does not preclude disclosing Social Security numbers for immigration enforcement.

Sooknanan disagreed, describing Wetherell as having "erred in significant ways," including by reaching a decision on the merits in the case without opinions from parties outside the federal and state governments that oppose the governments' position.

Sooknanan said that settlements may warrant reexamination and that she acted properly by enjoining DHS from allowing officials to use the new features introduced in 2025 despite the existence of the settlement.

Even if Wetherell's ruling ends up holding, the settlement is only with DHS, not the Social Security Administration (SSA), and only with four states, the judge wrote, so it would not prompt a stay of her earlier order with respect to the other 46 states.

DHS, which had declined to comment on Wetherell's decision, did not return a request for comment on Sooknanan's ruling by the time of publication.

The four states have not reacted to the competing rulings.

The Electronic Privacy Information Center and the League of Women Voters, the plaintiffs in the case overseen by Sooknanan, asked Wetherell this week to allow them to intervene in the case involving the states, citing the contradictory orders and their interest in the situation. He has not yet ruled on the motion.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 13:25

Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated

The US national average for regular 87-octane gasoline remained uncomfortably above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon threshold for roughly two and a half months. That stretch pressured lower-income consumers, forcing many to trade down or cut discretionary spending while weighing on broader consumer sentiment. The key question now is whether pump prices have further room to fall or whether current levels will become the new normal this summer.

Answering that question is Goldman's leading commodity expert Daan Struyven, who penned a note on Thursday explaining the three forces keeping pump prices high:

Reason #1: Tight Refining Fundamentals

Exhibit 4: The Global Refining Utilization Rate Was Near Historical Highs Before the Hormuz Shock

Exhibit 5: Refined Oil Products Stocks Are Low

Reason #2: Ongoing Refined Products Supply Shocks

Exhibit 6: Combined Refinery Outages in Russia and the Middle East Are 4.6mb/d Above Their Seasonal Normss

Reason #3: Asymmetric Passthrough

Exhibit 7: Firms Look Much More Likely to Report Selling Price Increases After Energy Prices Rise—Such as in 2021 and 2022—Than Report Selling Price Decreases When Energy Prices Fall—Like in 2023 and 2024

Struyven's three reasons suggest that the recent declines in the national average prices of gasoline, diesel, and other refined fuels may prove limited.

Professional subscribers can read more on energy markets and Gulf/Hormuz at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 13:05

World's First Commercial Nuclear-Powered Satellite Set For Launch Aboard SpaceX Rocket

Authored by Mrigakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,

Miami-based City Labs is all set to launch the world's first commercial nuclear-powered satellite into orbit.

NanoTritium battery Citi Labs

Solar panels have some challenges. When a satellite slips into the shadow of the Earth, hits a permanently dark lunar crater, or drifts into deep space, its solar arrays become useless. Batteries can step in, but they eventually die.

City Labs thinks nuclear energy could solve this persistent problem. On July 7, the company announced that its BOHR (Betavoltaic Orbital High-Reliability) satellite had secured a launch slot on a SpaceX Transporter-17 rideshare mission.

According to reports, SpaceX has scheduled the launch of its Transporter-17 rideshare mission for Tuesday, July 7, at 3:10 a.m. ET. The launch will mark a massive historic milestone. BOHR will be the first-ever nuclear CubeSat to enter orbit.

"This is a historic step for commercial nuclear power in space," said Peter Cabauy, CEO of City Labs. "BOHR demonstrates that safe, compact, and regulatory-approved nuclear power systems are ready for routine commercial deployment. This capability enables persistent, always-on payload operations that are not constrained by sunlight or battery life."

Secures FAA approval

Engineered for safe handling, transportation, and integration into standard commercial launch environments, City Labs' tritium-based power systems operate at extremely low radiation levels.

BOHR's core technology is City Labs' proprietary NanoTritium™ betavoltaic system, which generates continuous power from the natural beta decay of tritium rather than nuclear fission.

Compared to space-bound nuclear reactors, betavoltaic cells operate with no moving parts, no liquid electrolytes, and zero risk of fire or thermal runaway. Furthermore, as the tritium fuel naturally decays, it harmlessly transforms into helium-3, a completely stable and non-radioactive isotope.

This process operates at safe, ultra-low radiation levels suitable for standard commercial handling. In this mission, the nuclear battery will run and validate the primary payload independently, while a solar power system manages the main satellite bus operations.

Getting a nuclear payload onto a commercial rocket isn't easy.

In fact, it requires cutting through some of the toughest regulatory red tape on Earth. BOHR represents the first commercial space mission to successfully navigate the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) pathway for nuclear launch approval, a framework established under National Security Presidential Memorandum-20. The safety analysis was led by City Labs' Kevin Makinson and independently validated by Sandia National Laboratories.

The FAA issued its definitive payload authorization on September 30, 2025.

Advancing space exploration

Backed by the Department of War, NASA, and the Air Force Research Laboratory, the mission arrives at a key time for space exploration.

NASA's Artemis program aims to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon. Therefore, the demand for continuous, light-independent power sources is skyrocketing. It could position this satellite as a pathfinder for future deep-space operations.

"This milestone establishes a new class of spacecraft capabilities, enabling persistent operation of critical subsystems where traditional power systems fall short. This includes deep space, permanently shadowed lunar regions, and long-duration autonomous sensor networks," the company stated in the press release.

As a result, the BOHR mission will serve as a vital pathfinder for future nuclear-powered spacecraft supporting both civil and national security operations. When SpaceX's Falcon 9 lifts off, it will be launching the next era of nuclear-powered space exploration.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 12:45

Federal Appeals Court Upholds Illinois Ban On 'Assault Weapons'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court on July 9 upheld Illinois’s ban on the sale and possession of “assault weapons” and large capacity magazines, overturning a lower court ruling that had blocked enforcement of the law.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker signed the Protect Illinois Communities Act into law in January 2023 after a gunman killed seven people in a 2022 shooting during an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. A federal judge overturned the law in 2024, finding it violated the Second Amendment right to bear arms, but the injunction was later stayed after the state appealed.

In a 2–1 decision on July 9, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit concluded that the state’s ban is “consistent with the principles that underpin our nation’s tradition of firearm regulation.”

“In short, legislatures have long imposed restrictions on particularly dangerous weapons, and the Act is but another chapter in that story,” the order stated.

The appeals court said that semiautomatic rifles are rarely used for self-defense, citing an analysis that found handguns accounted for the majority of defensive gun uses.

Circuit Judge Michael Brennan dissented, saying the Illinois law contradicts the nation’s regulatory traditions that “forbid governments from prohibiting firearms commonly owned for self-defense.”

“Because the people have overwhelmingly chosen the AR-15 rifle and its magazine as their weapon of choice, they are protected by the Second Amendment,” the judge stated.

In a social media post, Pritzker called the ruling “a victory in the fight to end gun violence.” The governor said the state will continue enforcing its ban on “assault weapons” and high-capacity magazines.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation, a plaintiff in the case, said the appeals court erred in its ruling on modern sporting rifles (MSRs) and planned to seek the Supreme Court’s review.

“There are more than 32 million MSRs in circulation today, making these semiautomatic, centerfire rifles commonly owned and commonly used by nearly every standard,” the firearms industry trade association said in a statement.

“Likewise, there are hundreds of millions of standard-capacity magazines owned by law-abiding Americans in the United States.”

The Protect Illinois Communities Act criminalizes the sale and purchase of certain types of semiautomatic rifles and large capacity of ammunition.

Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul said in a statement that the weapons ban was intended to protect public safety.

“This is a win that enhances public safety in Illinois,” he said. “We have seen the damage that assault weapons and large-capacity magazines can inflict, and these weapons of war have no place in our communities.”

The Supreme Court said last month that it will consider whether bans on semiautomatic rifles, often called “assault weapons,” violate the Second Amendment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 12:05

Watch: New Video Shows McConnell Wheeled Out On Stretcher After June Cardiac Emergency At D.C. Home

New video shows emergency responders loading Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) onto a stretcher and into an ambulance outside his Capitol Hill residence on the morning of June 14, the same day the longtime Senate Republican leader was hospitalized.

The neighbor-recorded footage, first published Friday by CNN, depicts emergency vehicles - including multiple ambulances and a fire truck - clogging the street near McConnell's home as first responders wheel a person identified by witnesses as the 84-year-old senator toward an ambulance. The individual's face is not clearly visible in the video, but their lower legs and feet were seen under an orange blanket.

BREAKING BOMBSHELL

New audio and video have been leaked showing Sen. Mitch McConnell being loaded by stretcher into an ambulance when transported to the hospital - EMS recordings conform they found an unknown person who was "unconscious" due to "cardiac arrest," with "CPR in… pic.twitter.com/F5Aug8pmg8

— Conservative Brief (@ConservBrief) July 10, 2026

Dispatch Audio Cited Cardiac Arrest And CPR

The video adds new weight to emergency dispatch audio previously obtained by an independent journalist and reported by CNN. In that recording, responders were dispatched to McConnell's known address for an "unconscious" person experiencing a "cardiac arrest," with a paramedic heard saying "CPR in progress."

A neighbor who spoke with CNN said officers described it only as a "medical emergency" at the time but confirmed through another eyewitness that the person on the stretcher was McConnell. No sirens were used as the ambulance left the scene.

Prolonged Hospitalization Raises Questions

McConnell has remained hospitalized for nearly a month. His office has released only terse updates saying he is "receiving excellent care" and "continues his recovery," with few specifics on his condition or prognosis. The opacity has fueled rampant speculation in Washington political circles and on social media.

Some Republican allies, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and commentator Scott Jennings, have said they've spoken with McConnell recently and described his voice as strong. Still, the lack of detailed medical disclosures stands in contrast to the public nature of the emergency response now coming into view. Others mocked it as covering up for 'weekend at Mitch's.'

I spoke to McConnell for about 20 minutes this morning.

He said we should end the war with Iran, quit giving aid to Israel, stop spying on Americans without a warrant, and he’s really sorry about how my primary turned out.

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) July 7, 2026

The incident marks the latest health scare for McConnell, who has a well-documented history of falls, concussions and other episodes. As a towering figure in Senate Republican politics for decades, his extended absence continues to ripple through the chamber and the broader party.

BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Mitch McConnell appearing to have another scary episode in the media gaggle in Covington today. Aides had to step in to help him out and repeat questions. He was eventually lead away. We'll have the full video on @WLWT pic.twitter.com/q9ex5MHxLV

— Hannah Thomas (@HannahPThomas) August 30, 2023

McConnell's office declined to comment on the new video or audio.

This story is developing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:45

RFK Jr. Plans To Create A List Of Injuries Caused By COVID-19 Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health officials are proposing a plan to clarify which COVID-19 vaccine side effects would be eligible for government financial compensation, according to a new notice.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Minneapolis on May 21, 2026. David Berding/Getty Images

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and one of its divisions said in a description of a proposed rule released on July 1 that they plan to establish an injury table for COVID-19 vaccines through the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP).

"The Table will list and explain injuries that, based on compelling, reliable, valid, medical, and scientific evidence, are presumed to be caused by covered COVID-19 countermeasures, and set forth the time periods in which the onset of these injuries must occur after the administration or use of these covered COVID-19 countermeasures," a summary of the rule, which has not been made public, stated.

COVID-19 vaccines fall under the CICP because previous health secretaries declared and extended emergency declarations for COVID-19, which opened up the option of emergency clearance of vaccines and other countermeasures under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who just announced that he was ending the emergency declaration, is authorized under the declarations to provide benefits to people injured by the vaccines under the act, HHS officials noted in the proposal summary.

"Under the leadership of Secretary Kennedy, HHS is restoring transparency and accountability because the American people deserve clear, evidence-based information about both the benefits and the known risks associated with medical countermeasures," an HHS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email.

The spokesperson said that more information will be available when the notice is published in the Federal Register.

Aaron Siri, Kennedy's former lawyer, wrote to Kennedy in 2025, urging him to create a COVID-19 vaccine-injury table. He pointed to the readiness and preparedness law, which states that the health secretary "shall by regulation establish a table identifying covered injuries that shall be presumed to be directly caused by the administration or use of a covered countermeasure."

An injury table would help people injured by vaccines apply successfully to the congressionally created program, which requires "compelling, reliable, valid, medical, and scientific evidence" that an injury was a direct result of a countermeasure, Siri wrote on behalf of the Informed Consent Action Network, which advocates for government transparency and change.

"A well-constructed injury table is needed for the CICP," Richard Hughes IV, a former Moderna executive who is representing health groups in litigation against the administration that has halted some of its changes to vaccine guidance, told The Epoch Times in an email. "The real question is whether this administration would promulgate such a table or weaponize it to further platform misinformation."

Dr. Joel Wallskog, who suffered the neurological disorder transverse myelitis and other issues from COVID-19 vaccination and has sued the government over the CICP, told The Epoch Times in an email that the HHS proposal "is more appearance than substance."

"It appears to do little more than streamline the process for the relatively small number of individuals whose injuries - primarily anaphylaxis and myocarditis/pericarditis - are already recognized under the current system," added Wallskog, also the co-chair of the React19 nonprofit, which offers support to people injured by COVID-19 vaccines. "For everyone else who has been denied, nothing changes."

Erica Samp, who says she was injured by a COVID-19 vaccine, said in a post on X that she supported the plan but that she's watching to see what details are included, including the covered injuries.

The CICP is both administered and adjudicated by HHS officials. It has compensated some people who have said COVID-19 vaccination caused health issues, but rejected others, including people such as Wallskog, whom doctors diagnosed as being injured by COVID-19 vaccines, The Epoch Times previously reported.

The CICP has, through June, compensated 60 COVID-19 vaccine injury claims, nearly all for myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation. The average compensation has been $4,000, aside from a few large payments, and about 99 percent of applications have been rejected.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said in 2024 that COVID-19 vaccines definitely cause myocarditis and shoulder injuries, but that other possible harms could not be conclusively linked to the shots.

Some outside organizations, such as React19, have said that the available evidence supports a link between the vaccines and additional problems.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:25

Mitsubishi Motors Joins Physical AI Race With Humanoid Robot Production Deal

Mitsubishi Motors shares surged as much as 17% in Tokyo on Friday after the automaker unveiled a deal with the University of Tokyo startup Highlanders to mass-produce humanoid robots, signaling a push beyond its core automotive business and reinforcing a broader trend we have highlighted that could sweep across the global auto industry.

Highlanders signed an MOU with Mitsubishi Motors to develop humanoid robots for automotive factories and mass production at Mitsubishi's Kyoto plant as early as 2027. Early production runs could amount to 1,000 per month. 

The Japanese automaker plans to test the humanoids in its own facilities to address labor shortages and increasingly complex manufacturing, using operational data to guide a broader rollout. Mitsubishi has already invested in Highlanders.

Citi analyst Arifumi Yoshida wrote in his first take that the partnership between Mitsubishi Motors and Highlanders is "positive" for the automaker's stock, as it signals a push into physical AI:

After the July 9 market close, Mitsubishi Motors announced an MOU with Short-Term View: Upside Highlanders, a University of Tokyo startup, for the mass production of Price (09 Jul 26 15:30) ¥330.6 humanoid robots at its Kyoto plant. Production will begin in early 2027, Target price ¥420.0 with monthly production capacity of c1,000 units prepared. Highlanders will handle development and sales, while Mitsubishi Motors will leverage Expected share price return 27.0% its automotive production expertise in quality and other areas to provide Expected dividend yield 3.0% production and development support. Mitsubishi Motors has invested in Expected total return 30.1% Highlanders and is considering additional investment. The company plans Market Cap ¥442,459M to utilize the robots in Mitsubishi Motors factories while marketing them US$2,742M as Japan-originated physical AI products to diverse industries domestically and internationally. Multiple inquiries have already been received. We believe the stock market will welcome this initiative to expand its automotive business expertise into physical AI, which has also been earmarked as a national priority.

Mitsubishi Motors shares in Tokyo closed up 10% on Friday but remain at 2022 lows.

In recent weeks, Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee pointed out, "OEMs are entering humanoid robotics to boost productivity and unlock new revenue streams." Read the note here.

Lee noted, "Automakers have several advantages across hardware, software, and scale. There is significant overlap between vehicle and humanoid components—motors, reducers, sensors —as well as manufacturing."

It appears that Mitsubishi Motors is following other automakers, including Tesla and several Chinese companies, in making a big push into humanoid robotics development and mass production. EVs and humanoid robots share similar component ecosystems, manufacturing processes, and supply chains, giving automakers a potential advantage in scaling up production.

Here is a complete overview of the automakers developing humanoid robots:

Humanoid production ramps globally begin next year. Read report.

Does this suggest that legacy US automakers will eventually partner with humanoid robotics firms? What about Rivian and Lucid? The race for physical AI is underway.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:05

UAE Oil Output Hits All-Time High, Doubling Pre-Crisis Levels

Confirming reports from earlier this week, the latest estimates from the International Energy Agency signaled that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which unexpectedly quit OPEC earlier this year in a shock move that threatened the cohesion of OPEC, produced 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, its highest output ever.

The UAE’s crude oil production jumped from 3.3 million bpd in May to 4.1 million bpd in June after the country left OPEC effective May 1, started raising output, and managed to sneak a lot of exports out of the Middle East even as the Strait of Hormuz was mostly blockaded for the first half of June.

The crude oil production in June, at 4.1 million bpd, was the highest ever on record for the UAE, nearly double the output in March 2026 at the start of the Hormuz crisis. The production level also topped the previous record of 4 million bpd from the spring of 2020 when the OPEC+ producers were fighting for market share in a brief price war during peak Covid, according to OilPrice.com

The UAE has sought to adapt to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by sneaking tankers in dark mode through the Strait and increasingly offering to sell many of its crude grades for loading offshore Fujairah and at Sohar in Oman, outside the Strait.

Moreover, the Abu Dhabi national oil company ADNOC accelerated plans to have a new pipeline operational in 2027 that would double its oil export capacity through Fujairah, which sits outside the Strait of Hormuz.

ADNOC plans to build a new project, the West-East 1 Pipeline, which is expected to become operational next year and double the UAE’s energy giant’s export capacity through the Emirate of Fujairah to meet global demand for energy supplies.

The national oil company also plans to plans to award as much as $55 billion (200 billion UAE dirhams) on upstream and downstream projects over the next two years. The announcement of accelerated growth came days after the UAE said it would quit OPEC effective May 1 to pursue its national interests.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:03

IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

Despite the tentative recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the first build-up in global stocks since the war began, this week’s re-escalation of the U.S.-Iran hostilities could flip the outlook for an oil market surplus for next year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. 

Oil prices have plunged since the United States and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the middle of June, with North Sea Dated prices down by $31 per barrel in June to $68 a barrel by early July, their lowest since January and $2 per barrel below pre-war levels, OilPrice reported.

And while the oil market is still expected to move to significant surplus towards the end of the year, IEA said that this is heavily predicated on the assumption that tanker flows through the Strait will gradually recover: “An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year,” the IEA said in its closely watched Oil Market Report for July. 

Since the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, tankers have rushed to exit the Persian Gulf, including millions of barrels of Iranian crude that Tehran couldn’t move past the U.S. blockade between mid-April and mid-June. As a result, global oil supply rebounded by a massive 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 98.8 million bpd in June, amid a partial recovery in Gulf production, the IEA said.

However, global oil output remained about 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels, with supply on track to decline by an average of 3.7 million bpd to 102.6 million bpd in 2026, “contingent on a swift de-escalation of renewed hostilities.” Meanwhile tanker crossings have slowed to a trickle, while insurers are reportedly demanding a pound of flash, with Reuters reported that “war insurance for ships inside the Gulf has already ticked higher towards 3% of a vessel’s value, up from 2% at the end of last week.” Meanwhile, quotes for coverage as high as 5% are still circulating. 

At the same time, global demand - which was hit by demand destruction when crude prices topped $100 early this year - is starting to recover from the lows seen in the second quarter, with annual declines easing from 4.8 million bpd in April-June to an expected yearly drop of 1.7 million bpd in the third quarter, the IEA reckons.

Despite the wave of crude managing to clear the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, product supply and deliveries are much slower to rebound, with the markets still tight, the agency noted.

“The disconnect between apparently well supplied crude oil markets and tight product markets underpinned a rally in cracks and refinery margins to four-year highs by early July,” said the IEA.

“While concerns over jet fuel shortages have eased in recent weeks after refiners pushed output to new highs, diesel and gasoline markets have tightened, with gasoline cracks moving sharply higher.”

Here are the key highlights from the report:

• On demand, there has been significant sequential improvement with +1.2mbd YoY growth forecast in 4Q vs. -1.7mbd YoY in 3Q and -4.8mbd YoY in 2Q.  For context, Asia accounted for 2/3 of the peak demand drop. Overall, demand forecast increased slightly vs. last month report with 2026 now -1mbd YoY and 2027 +2mbd YoY (vs. -0.7mbd and +2.1mbd GS Research forecasts).
• On supply, June increased by 4.1mbd MoM to 98.8mbd, although still 9.4mbd below pre-war levels. Focusing on the Gulf, total June exports increased 6.5mbd MoM to 16.1mbd vs. 24mbd pre-war average.  In particular, it is worth noting that UAE (who recently left OPEC+) produced record volumes in June with further growth expected. 
• Inventory data showed 21mb increase in June, the first increase in four months following 360mb decline from March to May.  The IEA said that 69% of the proposed 400mb emergency inventory release has been completed, with uncertainty over the timing of release of the balance. 
• A recovery in world oil demand is underway, with consumption set to rise from its May nadir on seasonal trends and as pent-up demand is released in line with a rebound in product supplies. Annual contractions ease from 4.8 mb/d in 2Q26 to 1.7 mb/d in 3Q26, followed by a rise of 1.2 mb/d in 4Q26, for an overall decline of 1 mb/d this year. Forecast growth of 2 mb/d in 2027 results in a two-year pace of expansion well below historical trends. 
• Global oil supply rebounded by a sharp 4.1 mb/d to 98.8 mb/d in June, as a resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz underpinned a partial recovery in Gulf production. World output was nevertheless some 9.4 mb/d below pre-war levels, with supply on track to decline by an average of 3.7 mb/d to 102.6 mb/d in 2026, contingent on a swift de-escalation of renewed hostilities. If transit volumes improve, oil supply will expand by 7.5 mb/d next year. 
• Refined product cracks and margins surged to four-year highs in early July, as increased crude supplies pushed oil prices sharply lower, while product markets remained tight. Global refinery runs rose by 1.5 mb/d in June, down 6 mb/d y-o-y, with Middle East export refineries yet to restart, Russian throughputs curtailed by attacks and Asia still running at reduced rates. Global runs are expected to decline by 2.4 mb/d this year and rebound by 3.1 mb/d in 2027. 
• Global observed oil inventories rose for the first time in four months in June, by 21 mb, as sharply higher oil on water volumes more than offset continued draws in onshore tanks. Following a decline of 73 mb in May, total OECD stocks fell by a further 62 mb in June, of which an estimated 44 mb came from government stock releases. Non-OECD crude stocks eased by 37 mb in June, led by a 41 mb draw in China. 
• Benchmark crude oil prices continued to spiral lower in June, erasing all of their wartime gains, as tanker traffic out of the Gulf picked up and market focus shifted to the prospect of oversupply. North Sea Dated crude plunged by $22/bbl m-o-m, to around $68/bbl, with prompt time spreads reverting to contango. Prices rose after the ceasefire agreement was breached on 7-8 July, with Dated trading around $77/bbl at the time of writing. 

Here is the full visual recap, courtesy of Goldman

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:01

No Takers, Nor Tankers

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

Daily crossings through the Strait of Hormuz increased substantially after the US and Iran announced a “peace” agreement in mid-June. However, those numbers have started to dwindle as the ceasefire—peacefire, shmeasefire—appears increasingly shaky. According to Bloomberg, the Joint Maritime Information Center said that traffic through the Strait remains at “reduced levels,” (around 24% of pre-war transit) even though US-assisted vessel transits have been largely uninhibited.

Reuters reports that “some war insurers advise shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after attacks,” adding that “war insurance for ships inside the Gulf has already ticked higher towards 3% of a vessel’s value, up from 2% at the end of last week.” Meanwhile, quotes for coverage as high as 5% are still circulating. So even though the Strait is technically open, there don’t seem to be many takers—nor tankers.

Trump did declare just a few days ago that the ceasefire was “over,” with the US commencing strikes on Iranian sites, including the Iranshahr airbase, and Iran responding by attacking its neighbors in Kuwait and Jordan. Yesterday afternoon, explosions were heard in Bushehr, which is—likely not coincidentally—home to Iran’s only nuclear power plant. Initial reports suggest that the power plant itself was not hit. Brent crude oil prices did not move in reaction to the announcement.

Whether the ceasefire is truly “over,” or whether another MOU will emerge in the coming days (weeks? months?), remains very much an open question. Oil markets, however, remain as optimistic as ever. While Brent crude climbed by roughly $8, briefly trading above $80/bbl for the first time since 22 June, more than half of that move was retraced yesterday, with prices closing at around $76/bbl.

In other news, Anthropic has tapped former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to join its Oversight Trust, which seeks to “keep the artificial intelligence company accountable to its public mission.” The importance of the Oversight Trust has only intensified following earlier events this year, when Anthropic delayed the release of its Mythos model and triggered an emergency meeting among global leaders to address concerns about its potentially dangerous capabilities.

New York Fed President, John Williams, made several notable comments today on inflation, that seem to be at odds with those of current Fed Chair Warsh. In a speech organized by the New York Fed, Williams highlighted his concerns about the inflationary effects of AI, saying that “if [AI demand] creates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply in inflation, I do think that’s the kind of situation where you don’t look through.” Some readers may recall Warsh’s manifesto published to the Wall Street Journal in November of last year titled "The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership,” where Warsh calls attention to the disinflationary effects of AI, saying that “AI will be a significant disinflationary force, increasing productivity and bolstering American competitiveness.” While Williams also notes the potential for AI to “play out in a more benign way,” his aforementioned base case shines a light into the varying schools of thought and the potential for “good family fights” when the Fed next convenes.

Task Force Warsh also announced the individuals who will be leading each of his five Fed task forces:

• Communication: Former BoE governor Mervyn King, UW professor Peter Fisher, and former BCB President Arminio Fraga.
• Balance sheet: Harvard University professors Karen Dynan and Jeremy Stein, and former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan.
• Data sources: Harvard University’s Raj Chetty, former Walmart CEO, Doug McMillon, and UChicago’s Kevin Murphy.
• Productivity and jobs: Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz, Stanford’s Carles I. Jones, and Asha Sharma from Microsoft.
• Inflation framework: Harvard University’s Greg Mankiw, NYU’s Thomas Sargent, and the BIS’s former economic advisor, William White.

Canada’s Mark Carney spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah (the first Canadian PM to make the trip since the year 2000) to discuss the war between the US and Iran, as well as opportunities for economic collaboration. This resulted in the signing of several MOUs, including one to “strengthen cooperation across key defense, economic, trade and investment, cultural, educational, scientific, and consular priorities. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is now also scheduled to attend the Canada Investment Forum in September.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:45

Guns Fall Silent As Trump Says US-Iran Talks On Again, But Insists 'In No Uncertain Terms, Ceasefire Is OVER'

The guns have actually been silent in the Middle East overnight, after two days of deadly strikes between the United States and Iran, amid a general return to premarket open headlines of 'peace imminent again' as mediators desperately work to get diplomacy back on track. The White House position is that the ceasefire is over but that Washington has agreed to reengage Tehran in mediated talks.

Trump indicates US has agreed to Iran talks, but United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that cease fire is over.

The New York Times writes early Thursday that "Qatar, which helped broker the U.S.-Iran truce last month, has been in talks with Washington and Tehran to de-escalate the crisis, according to two officials with knowledge of the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy. In recent days, several other regional countries — Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, all of which host U.S. military facilities — said they have come under Iranian attack."

via Shutterstock/National Interest

The same report further says, "Even as the fighting appeared to subside on Friday, it remained unclear whether the latest mediation efforts could prevent that cycle from repeating." The situation has devolved into a "dangerous test of wills, with each side trying to show that it can absorb the other’s attacks and respond forcefully, without tipping the conflict back into full-scale war," NYT continues.

And separately Bloomberg also reports, "Talks between the US and Iran on a permanent peace deal are continuing, according to a US official, despite two days of clashes that threatened an already fragile ceasefire. The renewed hostilities risk undermining efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories, the International Energy Agency said."

Bloomberg continues: "Oil prices steadied on Friday after a bumpy week. While gasoline prices have fallen since the fragile ceasefire, they’ve lagged crude’s sharp decline, prompting one asset manager to buy protection against stickier-than-expected US inflation."

There appears real movement on this, given also that Reuters is freshly reporting that Qatar negotiators are currently in Iran to meet Iranian officials, as part of the effort to immediately de-escalate tensions and create conditions for broader negotiations.

Still, the crisis is on edge and full-scale war could return at any moment, also as the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency is once again alerting global vessels security threat in the Strait of Hormuz remains at its highest level.

In Iran, the burial of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has finally concluded, and the IRGC's top commander, Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi, has pledged vengeance against the US and Israel for the assassination, saying it won’t "be erased from the historical memory."

The Revolutionary Guard chief called for the "full realization of justice and a fitting response to the criminals, especially the child-killing American army." An estimated 41-43 million people attended the six-day funeral for the late Khamenei, according to Iranian media.

NEW: Iran warns it will retaliate against infrastructure attacks and strike Israel in response. pic.twitter.com/JmkyZ7Zeyy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 10, 2026

In the meantime we commented overnight on who is not seeking permanent Iran peace at this point, on lingering concerns about the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal in a Thursday evening report says that Israel has provided fresh intelligence to the White House indicating just such a Tehran-linked plot.

The timing is quite curious and interesting given it comes just as the warring sides standing on the brink of returning once again either to talks, or to full-scale war:

Israel shared new intelligence with the U.S. that it said indicated a fresh Iranian plan to kill President Trump, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that would mark an escalation in the war between Washington and Iran.

Iran for years has vowed openly to retaliate against Trump for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, who was a top general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the president’s first term. 

The Israeli embassy in Washington declined to comment. Iran’s Mission to the United Nations didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The White House referred The Wall Street Journal to comments the president made on Wednesday. 

The Israelis have remained deeply dissatisfied with terms laid out in the previously agreed-to MoU, and so have every incentive to goad Washington further into the conflict. Certainly many within the US administration know this, and so might be taking this new 'intelligence warning' - which was leaked rather quickly to major media - with the appropriate degree of skepticism. 

The US has still - somewhat surprisingly - affirmed it remains engaged in 'technical talks' with Iran, despite the prior days of tit-for-tat bombings. "Technical talks between the US and Iran are continuing, according to a US official, following two days of clashes that threatened to shatter an already fragile ceasefire between the two nations," reports Bloomberg, also late in the day Thursday. "The US is still committed to finding a solution with Iran, the official said Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter."

Israel says ready to attack Iran for 'third time if necessary' pic.twitter.com/KDkJ62iEfJ

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) July 10, 2026

So it appears there's still hope that things might not spiral further. As for the alleged assassination plot, this isn't the first time Iran has faced such accusations, and each time Tehran officials have vehemently denied them.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:40

Trump Refuses To Sign Landmark Housing Bill In Protest Over Stalled Elections Legislation

President Donald Trump declared Friday morning that he won't sign the sweeping bipartisan housing bill awaiting action on his desk in protest of the Senate's failure to pass his signature elections legislation. Unless the president issues an outright veto by midnight, however, the housing package will become law Saturday without his signature.

President Donald Trump attends an event to mark the launch of "Trump Accounts" in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., July 6, 2026. Photo by Evan Vucci/ Reuters

In a Friday morning Truth Social post, Trump said he was withholding his signature "in PROTEST" over the Senate's inability to pass the SAVE America Act, a comprehensive elections overhaul that would require photo identification to vote and proof of citizenship to register, and would bar most mail-in balloting, with exceptions for military service, disability, illness and travel.

The president asserted that the elections bill is "polling at 97% with the Republican Party" - a figure he offered without citing a source - and called its failure "a serious threat to any politician who votes against it." He renewed his demand that Senate Republicans "TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER," warning that Democrats would abolish the 60-vote rule "in their very first hour" back in power. Rendering "Democrats" throughout with a derisive misspelling, Trump added that the "title of DUMB" would revert to Republicans if the party allowed the stalemate to stand.

A Deadline, Not A Veto

This is of course performative unless Trump actually vetoes it. Under the Constitution, a bill becomes law automatically if the president neither signs nor vetoes it within 10 days, excluding Sundays, while Congress is in session. That clock on the housing measure - the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act - runs out at the end of Friday.

Because Congress has remained formally in session through the window, the "pocket veto" that would let the bill die quietly is widely viewed as unavailable. That leaves Trump two choices: veto the legislation outright, or let it lapse into law. His post on Friday, notably, promised only not to sign it.

A veto would face long odds. The Senate approved the package 85-5 on June 22, and the House passed it 358-32 - margins far beyond the two-thirds needed in each chamber to override. Congressional observers caution, though, that override votes can scramble such numbers, as some members retreat rather than be seen defying the president. Lawmakers overrode a Trump veto of a defense bill once before, in the final weeks of his first term.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., a close Trump ally, has already conceded the likely endgame. "If he doesn't, it's still law," Johnson said last week of the president's refusal to sign.

The Housing Bill

The bipartisan measure marks the most comprehensive federal housing legislation in decades. It aims to expand supply and lower costs by cutting regulatory barriers to construction, streamlining reviews, encouraging local zoning reform and restricting large institutional investors from buying up single-family homes, alongside pilot programs to expand access to smaller mortgages.

Republicans had planned to campaign on the law this fall. With the average 30-year fixed mortgage hovering near 6.5 percent, affordability consistently ranks as voters' top concern heading into November's midterm elections - and Trump's approval on housing has slipped since he began blocking the bill.

Trump upended the bill's rollout on June 24, canceling a Capitol signing ceremony roughly an hour before it was to begin - with the stage, desk and presidential seal already set in Statuary Hall - and declaring on social media that he would not sign until Congress passed the SAVE America Act, which he labeled "a National Emergency." He has since dismissed the housing package as being "of minor importance" and a "yawn" next to the elections bill.

The tactic is familiar: earlier this year, the president derailed a bipartisan deal on surveillance authorities to press the same demand.

The SAVE America Act has passed the House but failed five times on the Senate floor, where Democrats are unified against it and Republicans' 53 seats fall short of the 60 needed to break a filibuster. Four Republicans - Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky - have twice voted no.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-SD, has flatly refused to gut the filibuster, telling Fox News that Republicans are "bound by arithmetic." Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, the bill's most vocal Senate champion, has countered that the party is only "10 votes shy of cloture" and should force Democrats into a grinding floor fight. Roughly two dozen House conservatives, meanwhile, have vowed to block other legislation until the voting bill moves - a rebellion that stalled the annual defense bill and sent the House home early for its July Fourth recess.

Friday's post also appears to walk back a compromise Trump embraced only days ago. On Tuesday, he endorsed House GOP leaders' plan to pass pieces of the SAVE Act through the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process - a package Johnson has dubbed "reconciliation 3.0." The president's return to demanding the filibuster's termination suggests that détente may already be fraying.

And Of Course, Outrage Ensues

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, who helped steer the housing bill through the Senate, urged Trump in a video posted to X to "sign the damn bill." Sen. Mark Kelly, D-AZ, accused the president of holding the legislation "hostage."

Republican patience is thinning in public, too. Tillis, who is retiring, reduced his objection to a sentence: "It's quite simple: It's a math problem." Rep. Steve Womack of Arkansas quipped that any colleague not at least a little frustrated by now should question their own sanity. Thune, asked about the canceled signing last month, would say only that the decision was the president's call to make.

Trump has shown no sign of relenting. He promoted the SAVE Act from the National Mall during his July Fourth address, and in a weekend post warned that without it, "I don't want to be the last Republican President!"

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:25

Polymarket Seeks Approval To Bring Margin Trading To U.S. Customers

Authored by Olivier Acuna via CoinDesk,

Prediction market Polymarket applied for a license to offer U.S. users margin trading, enabling them to place bets with less upfront capital, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

Polymarket takes another step in its return to the U.S. (Kanchanara/Unsplash)

Polymarket's U.S. affiliate, Coming Home GBA LLC, filed for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association, Bloomberg said, citing a company representative. Polymarket will also require authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for changes to its rulebook that would allow trading without fully collateralized positions.

Prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer yes-or-no wagers on the outcomes of events, such as weather, sports and elections. Margin trading lets investors open positions with less upfront capital, a practice common in traditional markets. Kalshi received clearance to offer margin trading in March.

Polymarket's application comes as prediction markets continue to grow. Volumes hit $51 billion last year and are on pace to reach about $240 billion in 2026. Wall Street broker Bernstein recently said it expects volume to rise to $1 trillion by 2030 as the sector evolves from niche wagering into wide-based "information markets" spanning sports, crypto, politics and the economy.

Polymarket's application follows a marketing campaign it announced Wednesday to convince policymakers, regulators and potential users that it is trustworthy. Four years ago, the company agreed to stop serving U.S. customers as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC, which alleged it had offered unregistered event-based derivatives.

Polymarket did not respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:05

Ryanair Passenger Partially Sucked Out Of Plane After Window Shatters

A 61-year-old Serbian man was almost sucked out of a Ryanair flight after a piece of the plane's engine broke off and struck a window on the Boeing 737-800, causing it to shatter. 

The man's wife and other passengers pinned the man to his seat for five minutes as his "head and shoulders" were hanging outside the plane, which had left Greece's Macedonia airport for Germany at 5:55 a.m. CNN Greece reports. 

"The plane window broke and his wife held him for 5 minutes from the feet so that he would not leave. With the help of many passengers, they managed to pull him into the cabin," said trade union official, Michalis Giannakos, adding "the injured person is in shock and with friction burns." 

Engine debris shattered a cabin window on a Ryanair Greece–Germany flight, nearly pulling a 61-year-old passenger out. She suffered friction burns. pic.twitter.com/cGh1Wwmoq3

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) July 10, 2026

The window shattering sounded like "a tire bursting," one passenger told Radio Thessaloniki, adding "We immediately realised there had been a decompression. There were screams … for a moment I thought someone had accidentally opened the emergency door."

"The masks dropped and there was a strong smell. The head and shoulders of one passenger were outside the window. Fortunately, he hadn’t taken off his seat belt."

BREAKING: Ryanair passenger reportedly saved from being sucked out the cabin after window fails during a flight from Thessaloniki to Memmingen.

According to local media Ryanair flight FR1879, a Boeing 737-8AS, returned safely to Greece on Friday after part of a damaged engine… pic.twitter.com/YPgRodjPFp

— Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) July 10, 2026

"A Ryanair flight from Thessaloniki to Memingen on Friday morning (10 July) returned to Thessaloniki shortly after take-off when a passenger window detached on the fly. The aircraft landed normally and passengers returned to the terminal," the airline said in a statement cited by ENIKOS. 

"One passenger requested and received medical assistance on the ground in Thessaloniki," the statement continues. "In order not to be long overdue, an aircraft was mobilized to transport the passengers to Memingen, which departed Thessaloniki at 9:35 local time this morning."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 09:45

"GPIF To The Rescue?" Yen Jumps After Japan Urges Pension Funds To Invest More At Home

After a relentless collapse in the yen to a 40 year lows, the trajectory was finally dented overnight when Japan’s finance minister called for the nation’s massive pension funds to increase investments in domestic assets, boosting the yen from near four-decade lows and spurring a rally in bonds.

“One priority is to encourage households, as well as pension funds including the GPIF, to increase their investment in Japanese financial assets. We intend to pursue policies that support that objective,” Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Friday, referring to the Government Pension Investment Fund. It’s one of the world’s largest pensions with ¥293.6 trillion ($1.81 trillion) in assets.

The remarks in response to a question at a regular press briefing about government investment plans caught markets off guard, leading to a jump in the yen and a drop in bond yields. Both assets had been under considerable stress this week.

According to Bloomberg, Katayama’s comments on the GPIF were prepared in advance, citing a person familiar with the matter said. It’s unclear if they were intended to be form of verbal intervention, although they certainly impacted the yen more than the recent BoJ rate hike or ongoing currency jawboning.

Japan's giant GPIF pension fund is overseen by the labor ministry, not finance, and any changes to its investment strategy would have to go through an established process that would take time to implement. If any changes to allocations were to occur, the implications could spread beyond Japan. The nation is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries with a $1.2 trillion stockpile, and almost $5 trillion of the country’s capital is deployed overseas.

Ironically, over the past decade, the big push domestically was for the GPIF to invest more abroad, especially in US equities, at a time when Japanese stocks languished for year after year. However, with the Nikkei now significantly outperforming the S&P, it is hardly a surprise that local authorities are pushing for another reallocation, this time from abroad back to home.

Katayama’s comments were in response to a question on how the government’s plan to increase investment in strategic areas, such as artificial intelligence, would benefit its people. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unveiled a plan last month for ¥370 trillion to be invested in the economy over the course of 14 years, with more than a quarter of it earmarked for AI and chips alone.

“We want to ensure that the public can directly benefit from Japan’s economic growth,” Katayama said.

The Takaichi administration is a well-known proponent of accommodative monetary policy. An early draft of its economic policy guidelines released last month fanned market worries that the government is trying to exert influence over the BOJ, prompting several revisions to tame concerns. Katayama also said on Friday that monetary policy should be handled by the BOJ.

The call to reallocate investments signals the government’s intention to channel more household and institutional savings into domestic assets as the nation enters a new phase of economic growth accompanied by positive interest rates. Japanese equities have performed strongly this year, with the Nikkei 225 recently climbing above the 70,000 mark for the first time.

While it’s not clear how seriously the government is considering the issue, a reallocation of funds toward domestic investment would be a boost for the yen near 40-year lows. Besides rate-differentials with the US that have weighed on the currency, the yen has also been under pressure from capital outflows and concerns about the Bank of Japan’s independence. 

In immediate response to the comments, the yen strengthened to as firm as 161.29 per dollar before paring some gains. Bonds rallied, with yields across the curve declining about 10 basis points.

GPIF’s potential changes “cannot be ignored” given the size of its assets under management, said Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities. Katayama’s comments “could help sustain a ‘triple rally’ of bonds, the yen and stocks in the Japanese market.”
Some market participants doubted whether the comments will lead to any changes in asset allocation.

However, some traders doubt whether the comments will lead to any changes in asset allocation.

In a note from Goldman's FX team titled "The Scope for Japanese Repatriation Flows" (available to pro subs), the bank cautions that the comments do not signal an actual shift in government policy. Their framing is that meaningful repatriation flows, if they occur, would be one of the more credible paths to the yen correcting its severe undervaluation - while noting investor anticipation of such flows has repeatedly picked up over the past year (e.g., after the snap election) without materializing.

"We have long been skeptical of the scope for significant JPY-positive repatriation flows without a more favorable rate differential, especially since GPIF also has a return target that it needs to achieve. But any meaningful reallocation back towards domestic assets should be a source of support for the Yen, in addition to any rise in recession risk or more aggressive BoJ hikes" wrote Goldman strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman

In a separate note titled "GPIF to the Rescue?", Goldman said that Katayama's remarks sparked a JGB reversal rally, with 5y+ JGBs richening 5–11.5bps, but here too the bank's stance was skeptical, calling the rally "an overreaction," and noting that the FinMin used the broad term "Japanese financial assets" and did not explicitly commit GPIF to buying JGBs in size. They maintain a structurally bearish bias on ultra-long JGBs ahead of 20y/40y supply, and don't see this as a structural turnaround. 

Others agreed: “The macroeconomic backdrop has not changed, so it is difficult to see the yen strengthening for long,” said Kazushige Kaida, head of FX sales at State Street Bank & Trust Co.’s Tokyo branch. “If the latest comments suggest that the government is simply looking for ways to ease the pain of its reflationary policy, rather than abandoning it, then the broader story of yen weakness remains intact.”

The GPIF sets asset allocation parameters every five years. In March 2025, the fund decided to keep splitting a quarter of its funds equally between domestic stocks and bonds, foreign equities and debt. The fund also cut the maximum deviation from the target to 5-6 percentage points depending on movements by the various asset classes, from 6-8 percentage points.

GPIF posted its third best annual return on record in the 12 months ended March 31, according to a statement earlier this month. About half of the fund’s assets are invested overseas. The combined assets under management of Japan’s four public pension funds, led by GPIF, total about ¥332 trillion.

A shift “toward Japanese financial assets would be positive for Japanese equities,” said Yukihiro Kawanishi, a senior strategist at Aizawa Securities. “It could also encourage overseas investors, who have already moved ahead of the trend, to increase their allocations.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 09:40

JPMorgan Says The Real Threat To Bitcoin Isn't Strategy (MSTR), It's Private Blockchains

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Strategy’s recent bitcoin sales and its formal monetization program have rattled investors, but JPMorgan analysts see a bigger danger to bitcoin: blockchain adoption that routes around public networks and the tokens that ride on them.

In a report led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (ZH: available here for professional subscribers), the bank argued that Strategy is not the main structural threat to the asset. 

The company sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million in early July to cover preferred dividends, its largest disposal on record, and such sales can add bursts of selling pressure. The deeper concern, the analysts said, is where tokenization, payments and settlement end up.

Should that activity settle on permissioned rails rather than public chains, the crypto ecosystem could face a structural de-rating — thinner liquidity, weaker capital flows and slower on-chain volume — a drag that would reach bitcoin in time.

Institutions have leaned toward permissioned blockchains, which offer privacy, know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering controls, governance, throughput, legal accountability and regulatory certainty. 

That preference, per JPMorgan, creates a competitive problem for public networks like Ethereum.

The analysts cited the Bank for International Settlements, which has warned against public permissionless chains for systemic financial infrastructure and has pushed instead for “unified ledgers” that hold tokenized central bank money, bank deposits and assets inside regulated walls.

Tokenization as a real-world use case

Banks are building to that spec. Tokenized deposits — digital claims on bank balances, backed by banking regulation and deposit insurance — stand out as the clearest case. Should such deposits spread in the non-transferable forms regulators favor, they could crowd out stablecoins in institutional payments. 

SWIFT’s blockchain project and central bank digital currency efforts such as the digital euro and digital yuan would reinforce that regulated lane.

Real-world asset tokenization tells a similar story. The market sits near $50 billion, much of it on Ethereum for now, though the analysts read that as early experimentation rather than a settled structure. 

As adoption matures, issuance, custody and settlement could migrate to private infrastructure, leaving public chains for distribution and interoperability. DTCC and Securitize show the pattern in motion, and the analysts questioned whether public settlement is even the most efficient model for regulated firms, given the capital savings of deferred, netted settlement.

What could prove JPMorgan wrong

The Clarity Act, even should it pass this year, might not lift the threat; it could embolden bank-issued deposit tokens at the expense of public stablecoins. 

The analysts flagged three ways their thesis breaks: a hybrid model where both chain types matter, stronger stablecoin adoption under friendly rules, or bitcoin holding its role as “digital gold” and a debasement hedge whatever happens across the rest of crypto.

JPMorgan's full report is available here for pro subs...

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 09:25

Trump Took Old Air Force One To Leave Turkey As Security Measure: White House

Authored by Timothy Frudd via The Epoch Times,

The White House said Thursday that President Donald Trump’s departure from the NATO summit in Turkey aboard the old Air Force One was a “distraction and misdirection” intended to address threats against him.

The decision to have Trump travel aboard the old Air Force One aircraft came after Trump said he was at the top of Iran’s kill list following renewed conflict between the United States and Iran. The transportation swap took place just one week after the president took his first flight on the new Air Force One.

“As the President has said recently, there are many enemies of America who have their sights on him, and we use every tool at our disposal—including distraction and misdirection—to address those threats,” White House communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement.

Cheung defended the security capabilities of the new Air Force One, a $400 million Boeing 747-8 luxury jet that was gifted to the federal government by the Qatari government last year, after reports suggested that the Secret Service advised the president to take the old Air Force One on Wednesday.

“The new Air Force One is a state-of-the-art aircraft that has been fitted with high-level security protocols that ensure the safety of the President and his staff,” Cheung said.

In a social media post on Thursday, Trump said the new Air Force One was being sent to Mildenhall Air Force Base in the United Kingdom to give U.S. military members an opportunity to tour the aircraft.

“For old time’s sake, we’ll be taking the former Air Force One, from Turkey to Mildenhall, a short trip that is totally worth doing in order to give our Great Military Heroes a chance to appreciate our beautiful new addition to the Air Force Fleet!” Trump said.

In another social media post on July 8, Trump confirmed that he had landed at Mildenhall Air Force Base and met up with the new aircraft. He said the flight to the base represented “virtually no deviation” from the flight path back to the United States following his trip to the NATO summit.

Trump later departed from Mildenhall Air Force Base for his return trip to the United States aboard the new Air Force One.

During a news conference at the NATO summit on Wednesday, Trump discussed the threat posed against his life by Iran following U.S. retaliatory strikes against the country after it fired missiles at commercial ships in the Straight of Hormuz earlier this week. “I’m number one on the kill list for Iran,” Trump said.

Trump also said the temporary ceasefire deal with Iran was over on Wednesday after the United States and Iran exchanged strikes on Tuesday.

“To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum,” Trump said, later adding, “As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to the White House and has not received a response before publication time.

Renewed Conflict With Iran

The U.S. military launched precision strikes against more than 80 Iranian targets on Tuesday in response to what it said was a “clear and dangerous violation of the ceasefire” by Iran. The strikes came after Iran attacked three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it carried out a joint missile and drone operation against key U.S. military sites in Bandar Salman, Bahrain’s Fifth Naval District, and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Iran also said it shot down a U.S. MQ9 drone that attempted to interfere with the operation.

U.S. Central Command said Wednesday that U.S. forces completed another round of strikes against Iran, hitting about 90 military targets, including air defense systems, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, coastal surveillance assets, and military logistics infrastructure.

“The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway,” U.S. Central Command said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 08:45

SK Hynix ADRs Priced At 3% Premium As Wall Street Readies Wave Of Leveraged ETFs

The next test of the AI trade arrives today, as South Korean memory-chip maker SK Hynix's American depositary receipts begin trading under the temporary ticker SKHYV.

Shares were priced at about a 3% premium to Thursday's close of its ordinary shares in South Korea. The $26.5 billion offering attracted demand for roughly seven times the shares available, forcing the chipmaker to scale back allocations to major investors, according to Bloomberg.

The company sold 177.9 million ADRs at $149 each, raising $26.5 billion, surpassing Alibaba's US debut to become the third-largest listing in history. Each ADR represents one-tenth of a Seoul-listed common share, giving US investors direct exposure to the world's leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory amid the AI boom that could soon unlock the Physical AI boom.

According to the report, Baillie Gifford, Coatue Management, and Situational Awareness Partners received about $5 billion of ADRs, roughly $2 billion less than indicated. Over 500 institutional investors placed orders, including long-only funds, technology specialists, and sovereign wealth funds. The allocation remained concentrated, with 10 investors taking half the deal and the top 25 accounting for about two-thirds.

Wall Street analysts weighed in with their first takes of the deal, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Jung In Yun, CEO at Fibonacci Asset Management

• "I take 3% premium as a constructive signal. It shows that global investors are still willing to pay up for direct US access despite the recent volatility in Korean equities"
• From the company's and banks' perspective, the level looks sensible; it is strong enough to demonstrate demand, but not so aggressive that it creates unnecessary aftermarket risk
• In the current market, a clean, stable debut matters more than squeezing out the last few percentage points of valuation

Sanghyun Park, founder of Clepsydra Capital

• It shows global funds accept paying up to bypass local index and currency friction and direct exposure to the company's HBM dominance
• The banks capitalized on the limit to conversion that prevents arb traders from instantly erasing the spread on the first trading day
• This avoids the typical Korea Discount seen with legacy local names and points toward a TSMC-style scarcity model
• "Since 3% is just the primary floor and the float is so heavily choked, we could easily see the premium gap much higher once US trading opens on Friday"

Travis Lundy, an independent special situations analyst who publishes on Smartkarma

• "To me that is not that much of a premium. Eminently reasonable given the current swap rates on owning SK Hynix" local shares
• The 3% premium to Thursday's close is actually a discounted price to Wednesday's close and every other close for the past few weeks when investor demand was "multiple times" the offering size
• There is an interesting dynamic whereby if the headroom expands, it will take pressure off the banks to fund local into swaps, which should reduce the swap rate, which should in turn reduce the ADR premium slightly

Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group

• "The 3% premium tells you the roadshow demand was strong enough to price above Thursday's Korean close — and that's the first concrete evidence that the accessibility premium is real"
• The real test will be the first two weeks of trading before upcoming earnings; if the ADR consistently trades above the Korean share dollar equivalent, it confirms US investors are willing to pay a premium for accessibility — and that should pull the Korean shares higher
• The ADRs could be included in the Nasdaq 100 in December; once that inclusion happens, passive fund inflows from vehicles like the Invesco QQQ become a mechanical buying force

Francis Oh, head of Asia business development at Rex Financial, which provides exchange-traded products

• "The current 3% premium should not be over-interpreted at this early stage"
• "TSMC's 18% premium reflects structural friction that accumulated over years, not a level established immediately post-listing; any meaningful convergence or divergence for SKHY toward comparable levels is more likely to unfold as a gradual"

SK Hynix's ADR offering comes weeks after SpaceX tapped the public markets in the largest initial public offering in history, while Alphabet is raising $85 billion to fund its AI buildout. Traders are betting heavily that AI-related demand is a secular growth story for memory stocks, which have historically been viewed as more cyclical.

Bloomberg expects that the US debut of SK Hynix will unlock a new "wave of leverage ETFs" tied to the chipmaker's American depositary receipts. It expects ProShares, Leverage Shares and Rex Shares are some of the fism planning to products taht offer 2x daily returns on the memory chip giant.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted:

A fresh pool of leveraged US-listed ETPs would mean the daily rebalancing flows would grow larger, potentially fueling already heightened volatility. The size of the leveraged products also made it difficult to meet the promise of delivering twice daily returns, creating a tracking gap.

The key question is whether SK Hynix's blockbuster ADR offering can juice memory stocks again, especially after our note earlier this week, "South Korea Falls Into Bear Market As Memory Euphoria Fizzles."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 08:25

Futures Flat As Traders Brace For Weekend Iran Escalation

US equity futures are flat on the final trading session of the week, with Tech lagging, as traders hold off on big bets ahead of the weekend, with the fragile truce in the Middle East keeping geopolitical risk front of mind. Overnight, the US said Iran talks will continue, a positive step amid the recent escalation near the Strait of Hormuz (then again the market never reacted negatively to the latest strikes in the first place). As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures are flat and Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%; pre-market, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: META +1.8%, MSFT +0.9%, while NVDA and AAPL are down 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively. Notably, META has been outperforming since the announcement of its Muse Spark AI model and its strategy for the cloud business. SemiAnalysis, whose "unbiased", often wrong but never in doubt, views at some point be investigated by a regulator, also struck a positive note on META’s AI development (here). Bond yields are 1–2 bp lower, and USD is mostly unchanged. Commodities are mixed: WTI is down 0.2%; base metals are higher, while precious metals are mostly lower. The US economic data calendar empty for the session. Next week includes June CPI, PPI data. Fed calendar empty for the session. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent 7 stocks are mixed with Meta rising 3% after research firm SemiAnalysis posted a positive report on the social media giant’s AI compute business (Microsoft +0.4%, Amazon unchanged, Alphabet +0.1%, Apple -0.4%, Tesla unchanged, Nvidia -0.4%).

• CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC) jumps 9% after Reuters reports that the insurance software company is exploring a sale.
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) gains 13% after the stablecoin issuer received approval from the US Comptroller of the Currency to establish “First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A.,” a national trust bank that will offer digital asset services.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) slips 2.8% after the airline posted second quarter results.
• EquipmentShare.com (EQPT) gains 13% after the company announced a $500 million share buyback.
• Fermi (FRMI ) down -17% after offering $350 million in convertible senior notes
• Twilio (TWLO) climbs 2% as Stifel upgrades to buy on the company’s potential to capitalize on the current AI cycle.
• WD-40 (WDFC) rises 14% after the lubricant spray maker boosted its net sales forecast for the full year.

In other AI news, JPMorgan has built an array of AI-powered investing agents that beat 60/40 portfolio in back-tests. OpenAI and Google confirmed they have been supplying AI services to Singapore-based subsidiaries of Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent, the Financial Times reports. Netflix is said to be considering steps to deal with signs of declining subscriber engagement, according to the WSJ.  Bayer sold a minority stake in its contraceptives business to Apollo for €3 billion ($3.4 billion) and will use the funds raised to help cover its ballooning litigation costs tied to the herbicide Roundup. Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the US, which would let users bet on events with less capital upfront.

We end a week characterized by thematic rotations, signs of a summer trading lull and low volatility at the index level. Brent crude traded near $76.50 a barrel, swinging between small gains and losses after a volatile stretch. Talks between the US and Iran are continuing despite days of fighting that drove a steep drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of further escalation is expected to keep investors cautious as they close out the week.

“Over the weekend, discussions between the US and Iran are expected to continue,” said David Manso, chief investment officer at CaixaBank AM. “Oil prices could provide a useful gauge of investor sentiment and expectations regarding the evolution of the situation.”

Yet away from geopolitics, things are about to get busier soon, with Tuesday’s blitz of five major US bank results heralding the start of the earnings season. And speaking of rotation, Lilian Chovin at Coutts in London, notes that the firm has moved a bit underweight US equities. “Other regions are probably better placed right now to navigate the coming few months. Obviously by reducing our US exposure, we have reduced our exposure to tech mega cap.”  The Coutts team remains positive on the AI theme, he explains. “It’s more nuanced than people selling tech to go into defensive sectors. We’ve seen a rotation within tech, caused by some noise around semiconductors.” 

After an unprecedented rally in chipmakers and other AI buildout stocks helped markets shrug off higher oil prices and elevated bond yields, the bar is now high for companies to justify their lofty valuations. For hyperscalers, the onus is on proving that the spending can generate strong returns.

“What remains to be confirmed is whether growth can hold up despite that pressure, with the AI capex cycle continuing to support investment, revenues and earnings,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “Expectations are high, but the real test is whether earnings can keep validating the expansion story.”

This morning another company capitalized on the chip bubble when SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in its ADR offering, the largest ever US first-time share sale by a foreign company. The company sold 177.9 million ADRs for $149 apiece, each equivalent to a 10th of a Seoul-traded common share. Hynix’s US debut is set to spur a wave of leveraged ETF product launches. 

Analysts have upgraded S&P 500 earnings estimates ahead of the second-quarter reporting season, setting the bar high in “an atypical move,” according to HSBC strategists. The Street now expect profits to rise 22% from a year earlier, the highest in the post-pandemic period. Meanwhile, with Q2 reports due shortly, an interesting set-up is emerging between earnings season expectations and headline risk, notes Bloomberg’s equity derivatives specialist Christian Dass. Persistently low implied correlation leaves the VIX vulnerable to a sharp repricing if markets become increasingly driven by macro headlines rather than stock specific fundamentals.

In politics, Trump fired two Democratic members of the US Election Assistance Commission, while the Republican member resigned. Graham Platner’s exit from the Maine Senate race has set off a scramble to find a replacement to take on Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins, with at least six Democrats entering the field.

In other assets, carry trades are seeing the most compelling backdrop in more than two decades, according to Goldman Sachs, while an unprecedented divergence in the oil-market crack spread gauge are prompting Vanguard to buy insurance against stickier-than-expected US inflation. 

Trade during the European session has been indecisive and non-committal alongside a particularly slow news cycle. The Stoxx 600 has oscillated around the unchanged mark: tech and energy sectors are the worst performers, while telecoms and miners are the biggest gainers. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• EasyJet shares jump as much as 15% after the budget airline received a fresh bid from private equity firm Apollo that beats a rival proposal from Castlelake. The shares remain below both offer prices.
• Vodafone shares soar as much as 14% after its biggest shareholder Emirates Telecommunications Group agreed to sell its entire 16% stake in the firm to a vehicle controlled by billionaire Xavier Niel.
• Voestalpine, Salzgitter and ArcelorMittal rose after JPMorgan upgraded the steel producers. The bank says it expects 2Q reporting to focus on the impact of cuts to EU steel imports and import tariffs effective from July, which have the potential to transfer demand to EU steel producers.
• EMS-Chemie shares gain as much as 3.5% after it reported better-than-expected first-half sales and profit and raised its net sales forecast for the year.
• Hays shares rise as much as 13% after the recruitment company reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter fees and forecast full 2026 profit to be at top end of the consensus range.
• St James’s Place shares fall as much as 7% after Financial News reported that one of the wealth manager’s largest advice firms has decided to exit the group, spotlighting ongoing retention troubles.
• Duerr shares fall as much as 4% as Berenberg downgrades the German stock to hold from buy and slashes its price target almost in half, citing dependency to automotive original equipment manufacturers.
• Glenveagh Properties drops as much as 5.1% after being downgraded at Deutsche Bank, as analysts believe the Irish housebuilder is fairly valued following recent gains.
• Troax shares fall as much as 6.6% after Berenberg downgraded the Swedish maker of machinery parts and warehouse fittings to hold from buy, citing a tough automotive end-market and the likelihood of a slow margin recovery.

The mood in Asia was more upbeat with the MSCI APAC index up 0.8%, boosted by a rally in tech shares. Asian stocks climbed, boosted by a rally in tech shares amid optimism ahead of the US listing by South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1.7%, the most in a week. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were the top contributors to the benchmark’s advance and led a 5% surge in the Kospi. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up almost 2%. SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in its American depositary receipt offering, powering through recent volatility in global semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics’ Executive Chairman Jay Lee is seeking to meet with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang in the US late July to discuss the former’s investment plans in South Korea’s southwest area, according to a media report. Elsewhere, trading in Taiwan was halted as a strong typhoon approached the island. Japan called on its pension funds, which include one of the world’s largest, to invest in domestic assets. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Shares of Japanese wafer maker Sumco rallied as much as 15% to hit their upper daily limit after Micron’s plan to invest in Taiwan’s GlobalWafers was seen as a sign of rising demand in the sector.
• Lenovo’ shares rise as much as 9.2% after Morgan Stanley upgrades the Chinese device maker and more than doubles the price target, citing its ability to pass through higher component costs amid AI-driven demand.
• Zhipu shares drop as much as 9.7% in Hong Kong, paring a sharp three-day rally, after Goldman initiated coverage at neutral, saying their valuation fairly reflects the competitiveness of the company’s AI models.
• Mitsubishi Motors shares climbed as much as 17%, the most since December 2024, after the vehicle maker announced a tie-up to produce humanoid robots with a Tokyo-based startup.
• Fast Retailing shares slipped as much as 3.7%, the most since May 12, after the Uniqlo owner’s 3Q earnings beat was seen as priced in

In FX, the dollar dipped 0.1% in a third straight day of losses. Bonds extended a rebound, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries falling two basis point to 4.54%. The yen outperformed major currencies, rising 0.4% after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government wants pension funds to increase investment in domestic assets.

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve following similar price action across European bonds with oil prices steady. US yields are 1bp-2bp lower with curve spreads within a basis point of Thursday’s close, 10-year near 4.535% with bunds and gilts in the sector also about 1.5bp richer on the day. During Asia session, yen and JGBs advanced after Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama called on pension funds, including the GPIF, to invest in domestic assets. Long-end JGB yields ended more than 10bp lower. US session has no major scheduled events.  IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Four borrowers priced $2.25b in new US investment-grade bonds Thursday, pushing weekly volume through $51b and more than double forecasts. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.2 times covered.

In commodities, Brent crude futures are down 0.5% and around the $76/bbl mark with traders awaiting further directional clues from events in the Middle East. WTI crude oil futures little changed as US and Iran continue talks despite a flare-up in fighting. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver down 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Bitcoin is higher by 1.5%. 

The US economic data calendar empty for the session. Next week includes June CPI, PPI data. Fed calendar empty for the session. Next week Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees on its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

US-Iran negotiations on a permanent peace deal are continuing, according to an American official, despite two days of clashes that threatened to unravel the ceasefire. BBG

Israel shared new intelligence with the U.S. that it said indicated a fresh Iranian plan to kill President Trump, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that would mark an escalation in the war between Washington and Iran. This news that comes just 24 hours after Trump unexpectedly switched back to the old Air Force One for his return flight from the NATO summit in Turkey as a “security precaution” (the New Air Force One doesn’t have the same security features as the old one). Iran for years has vowed openly to retaliate against Trump for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, who was a top general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the president’s first term. WSJ 

The UAE boosted crude production to an all-time high last month, pumping 4.1 million b/d on average in June. IEA 

Global diesel market faces a significant supply crunch as Russia bans exports due to domestic shortages following Ukraine strikes. FT

Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, sparked a jump in the yen on Friday when she said the government would pursue policies to encourage pension funds to buy more Japanese assets. Japan’s biggest public pension fund will likely ignore the call to boost domestic investment, at least in the short run, because of strict rules governing asset allocation and its public mandate. BBG

Japan’s producer prices picked up in June to the fastest pace since early 2023, reinforcing the case for the BOJ to keep hiking rates. BBG

Taiwan halted trading on its stock exchange and closed schools as Typhoon Bavi approached the island. TSMC postponed its monthly sales disclosure to Monday. BBG

South African economic growth is on an upswing as efforts to improve governance and critical infrastructure are lifting bottlenecks that have held it back for years, according to Standard Bank’s chief economist. BBG

SemiAnalysis thinks Meta should be talked about alongside OpenAI and Anthropic as the top three frontier AI labs in the world (of the hyperscalers, SemiAnalysis thinks Meta, not Google, has the best chance of catching up with Anthropic and OpenAI). SemiAnalysis, which may or may not have a conflict of interest

Trump fired two Democratic members of the US Election Assistance Commission, while the Republican member resigned.

Graham Platner’s exit from the Maine Senate race has set off a scramble to find a replacement to take on Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins, with at least six Democrats entering the field: BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsqauwk

Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the green, as they followed the tech-led gains seen stateside. Military strikes continued on Thursday, but energy prices and equity markets seemed to have brushed it aside and instead took a stronger liking to President Trump’s comments, in which he said Iran had reached out to the US and wanted to make a deal, easing concerns over a further escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure. To note, the Taiwan markets were closed due to the typhoon, and worries of the typhoon hitting China and Japan. ASX 200 initially opened with modest losses but has since reversed and printed modest gains. Metals & Mining topped the sector pile, cutting 4 consecutive days of losses, while Health Care was the sector laggard. Nikkei 225 gained, with SUMCO leading the way as it benefited from the semiconductor strength stateside. On the earnings front, Seven & I and Fast Retailing both posted strong earnings and raised their FY guidance; however, shares traded lower after highlighting the effects of a weaker yen. KOSPI surged, helped by gains in Samsung Electronics while SK Hynix shares traded choppy ahead of its US ADR listing. The choppiness in SK Hynix comes as investors position themselves for the ADR, with analysts stating that the US ADR may be preferred over its domestic listing, due to US ADRs commonly trading at a premium (typically at a 5-15% premium). Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng were firmer, with another set of IPOs in Hong Kong, resulting in 15 listings this week. Today, markets were focused on Nexchip Semiconductor. The IPO price was set at HKD 32.30/shr, and shares rose at the open and briefly topped HKD 36/shr but have since come off.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are to pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama does not comment on specific bond yield levels; specific monetary tools are up to the BoJ, closely monitoring economic indicators and market situations. Important that the government position secures market confidence. Will ensure fiscal sustainability to gain market trust. BoJ can adjust monetary policy regardless of what the government said. Predicts gradual increases in interest rates as the government is engaged in a proactive fiscal policy. Want to speed up discussions on expansion of JGB products targeting households.
• Japan's GPIF spokesperson said they are aware of Finance Minister Katayama's comments but declines to comment.
• Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said the government has consistently communicated its stance of taking policy that heeds to fiscal sustainability.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) began the session on a weaker footing despite APAC optimism ahead of SK Hynix’s US debut (KOSPI +2.5% at close). Geopolitical newsflow quietened overnight, as such energy benchmarks are off best levels with Brent around USD 75/bbl. IBEX continues to outperform after it slumped earlier in the week (also has more defensive composition), while tech heavy AEX is the worst performer as top constituent ASML looks to SK’s ADR debut. European sectors opened with a positive bias and continue this way. Comms and Travel/Leisure outperform, Tech and Energy are the laggards for the above factors. In terms of individual movers, Infineon (-2.7%) said it is raising prices in some segments; EasyJet (+14%) agreed to a GBP 5.7bln takeover by Apollo at 715p/shr; Vodafone (+11%) French telecom tycoon Niel acquired E&’s stake for a GBP 0.15/shr premium.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce a new City "skills compact" that will commit financial firms to retraining thousands of workers for the AI revolution, The Guardian reported.

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Buck. JPY leads after FinMin Katayama touted measures to promote domestic inflows, Kiwi continues to eek gains post-RBNZ as markets look to price a cumulative 50bps tightening by year end and NOK is the worst performer after broadly cool inflation data.
• USD a touch weaker as JPY firms alongside the tempered recent Gulf updates. Geopolitical newsflow quietened overnight, with energy benchmarks off best levels with Brent around USD 75/bbl, about 5 Bucks off the week’s highs. DXY slipped throughout APAC as the JPY firmed, but found buyers below 21DMA at 100.85 which has proven support in recent sessions.
• JPY digests updates from FinMin Katayama who said she was to pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others. This, on the face of it, would be a textbook tactic to encourage domestic investment and passively limit outflows, especially with a large composition (50%) of pension funds allocated to foreign investments. Several strategists note this is a positive sign in attempts to shore up the currency; though CapEco said “Much of its domestic bond portfolio is invested passively, and shifting more assets into domestic bonds would come at a sizeable fiscal cost if it requires selling equities”, and others highlight Katayama is not in a position to direct changes, it would be under the jurisdiction of the Labour Ministry. USD/JPY gradually trundled lower from a 162.50 peak, to mark a trough below 161.30 (session low 161.28), with a modest kneejerk lower on not-too-surprising BoJ sources. ING notes the JPY-funded carry keeps risks to the upside for the pair.
• NOK is the clear underperformer vs. both the USD and SEK after the soft inflation data series. Most metrics cooled beneath expectations, core Y/Y the sole figure rising above consensus, albeit unch. from May. CPI-ATE, the Norges Bank’s preferred gauge of inflation fell was 2.9%, well below the Bank’s estimate of 3.3%, will likely provide conviction for doves with the bank likely to remain on hold in the August meeting; then tighten in September should the next (August) CPI metrics not provide a dovish surprise. NOK/SEK fell from a 0.9940 peak to mark a trough at 0.9882. 8th July low at 0.9861 is the next level below.
• South Korean Forex Authority said USD/KRW market remains misaligned with economic fundamentals.

Fixed Income

• Overall, fixed benchmarks are firmer in reaction to the modest but increasing pullback seen in the energy space overnight and as JGBs lead on domestic updates.
• JGBs got to a high of 127.76 in the European morning, continuing the overnight rally after comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who said that pension funds should be encouraged to invest more in the domestic market. Commentary that underpinned Japanese assets across the board, and sent the 10yr yield lower by around 16bps on the day, down to 2.71% and now essentially flat on the month, reversing from the 2.89% YTD high.
• Commentary that also lifted peers at the time. While the shift would be a positive for the Japanese market generally, there are a few unknowns, most pertinently being whether Katayama can make such an announcement as the GPIF is under the Labour Ministry, not the Finance Ministry. As such, for FX in particular, there is an argument that Katayama’s commentary is conducting another form of jawboning, and therefore the move may well fade in the days/weeks ahead, unless a relevant official to the GPIF (i.e. Ueno, or PM Takaichi) backs the shift publicly.
• USTs got to a 109-12 peak in the early morning, as energy hit a low and the JGB-driven move topped out. Since, newsflow has been particularly light with the market essentially waiting for a resumption of negotiations or strikes, though as is often the case we might not get clarity on the next step until the weekend.
• Bunds followed suit, peaking at 125.74 with gains of around 35 ticks. Specifics limited. Continued focus on the EU funding plans, and the lack of agreement on the next 7yr plan is arguably supporting EGBs for net-contributing nations, as no agreement would see the current EUR 1.4tln figure continue as opposed to the planned uplift to EUR 2tln.
• Gilts opened lower by a few ticks, before then swiftly moving above the 88.00 mark to a 88.07 peak, in-fitting with the above. Action that leaves it just above Wednesday’s high but someway shy of the 88.93 opening level at the start of the week. Last night the first tally was done for the Labour nominations, and while the count theoretically leaves space for a challenger it is not realistic and therefore Burnham is now formally, for all intents and purposes, the incoming UK PM.
• Italy sold EUR 7.5bln vs exp. 6.0-7.5bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 & 3.95% 2041 BTPs.
• China's MOF sold 2-year and 3-year bonds. 2-year sold at 1.2305%. 3-year sold at 1.2629%.
• Australia sold AUD 900mln 1.75% 2032 AGBs: b/c 3.16x (prev. 4.10x), average yield 4.6189% (prev. 4.1987%).

Commodities

• The geopolitical situation appears to have calmed down this morning, with no fresh reports of strikes on Iran/regional neighbours. However, the situation remains tense given some of yesterday’s actions. Iran reported a couple of strikes at two military bases, but US officials denied any involvement of this. Despite the earlier reports, some Iranian officials denied any explosions taking place.
• Despite the recent flare-up, a US official stated that the US remains committed to a resolution with Iran and technical discussions are ongoing. This, alongside the lack of new strikes overnight has led to a bearish bias in crude benchmarks this morning. Brent Sep’26 (-0.2%) is only mildly lower and trades at the towards the mid-point of a USD 75.36-76.95/bbl range. Some mild downticks were seen in the benchmark after the release of the IEA Oil Market Report. It cut 2026 oil demand, noted that the UAE is upping its supply and oil transits are passing through the Hormuz.
• Spot gold (-0.6%) trades lower this morning, hovering on either side of the USD 4.1k/oz mark; currently within a USD 4,094-4,134/oz band. The range today is very thin, amidst the lack of pertinent newsflow and fairly steady USD. Elsewhere, base metals hold a negative bias. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 13,455-13,562/t range. For aluminium, analysts at Morgan Stanley recently stated that they see a smaller supply deficit in 2026, and likely to move into a surplus from 2027.
• Oman has set its OSP at USD 69.29/bbl for September delivery.
• IEA OMR: forecasts global oil demand in 2026 to fall by 1.05mln BPD (prev. exp. 1.12mln); global oil demand recovery is under way. Global oil demand estimated at 103.46mln bpd for 2026 and is expected to grow by 2mln BPD in 2027 and reach 105.47mln BPD. Oil supply may expand 7.5mln BPD in 2027 if transits improve.
• A fire broke out at two oil product storage facilities due to a UAV attack in the Rostov region, according to the governor; fires are being pushed out in Taganrog's Seaport, reported no injuries.
• Krasnodar task force said a fire has broken out at the Ilsky oil refinery due to the fall of a drone's debris, Interfax reported.
• QatarEnergy set August Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai -USD 5/bbl; Land Crude OSP at -USD 4.50/bbl, according to a pricing document.
• China National Summer grain output reached 150.7mln tonnes, +0.7% Y/Y.

Trade/Tariffs

• China's MOFCOM announces a temporary ban on helium exports.
• US White House announces the adjustment of imports of commercial aircraft, jet engines, and aircraft and engine parts into the US; no immediate tariffs be imposed under section 232 to address the threatened impairment to the national security.

Central Banks

• BoJ reportedly to keep rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance and also raise growth outlook, according to sources.
• PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos with rate maintained at 1.40%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7989 vs exp. 6.7931 (prev. 6.8036); strongest midpoint since February 2023.
• NBP's Wnorowski said signal about possible motion to cut interest rates in September is premature; do not see space for more than one cut this year.

Geopolitics: Middle-East

• Qatar, Pakistan and other regional mediators are trying to de-escalate tensions between the US and Iran and revive negotiations on a nuclear deal, Axios reported citing sources.
• A member of the National Security Commission of Iran's parliament said the UAE will pay the price for cooperating with America.
• A US official said talks with Iran will continue, Fox's Hasnie reported; The administration is still committed to finding a resolution so technical talks continue to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon. Iran's attacks on ships in the streets are acts of terrorism. The MoU is performance-based, and Iran's actions constitute failed performance at an unacceptable level.
• Israel reportedly shared new intelligence with the US that indicated a new Iranian plan to kill US President Trump, WSJ reported citing sources.
• A US official said the US remains committed to a resolution with Iran and technical discussions are ongoing.
• Turkey has decided it will not join the Canadian Defence Bank initiative at this point, sources suggest.
• The Israeli army said "we will continue our operations to eliminate any threat and will not allow Hezbollah to harm us", Al Jazeera reported.
• Al Jazeera reported that Israeli forces are conducting extensive demolitions in southern Lebanon.
• Krasnodar task force said a fire has broken out at the Ilsky oil refinery due to the fall of a drone's debris, Interfax reported.
• Pakistan has begun mediating between Libya's rival eastern and western data centres with the backing of the US and Saudi Arabia, Nikkei reported citing sources.
• Lebanese media reported of new Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon, Tasnim reported.
• Four Japanese-linked vessels remain in the Persian Gulf, Kyodo reported.
• Konarak Governor said this area was targeted by enemy fighter jets in two stages on Thursday evening.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ilsky (138k BPD), Russia oil refinery fire has now been extinguished.

US Event Calenadar

• The US economic data calendar empty for the session

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I was hoping that by now the latest on the Iranian conflict wouldn’t be the lead story but it has of course returned to the top of the headlines this week. The latest is that Bloomberg reports overnight indicate that “technical talks” continue between US and Iranian officials despite the clashes this week. There were also Bloomberg reports that President Trump and PM Netanyahu spoke Thursday according to the PM’s office. To be fair sentiment turned back more positively late Wednesday night when Trump suggested that the Iranians were desperate for a deal. So markets have generally been more positive since.

So for now we can go back to trying to guess whether we’ll wake up to the KOSPI being up or down more than 5%. If you guessed in the positive side this morning you’d be correct as it’s surging +5.11% as I type, after officially entering bear-market territory yesterday. The rally has of course been driven by strong gains in semiconductor stocks with the record-breaking $26.5 billion listing by chipmaker SK Hynix helping to reinforce confidence that the AI investment cycle remains intact. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (+1.85%) has climbed to its highest level since June 17, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.77%) is also posting strong gains. The CSI 300 (+0.49%), Shanghai Composite (+0.75%), and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.51%) are also up. US and European futures are down between a tenth and two tenths of a percent though. 10yr USTs are -1.2bps lower trading at 4.54% and oil is fairly flat.  

In Japan, long-dated government bond yields are falling and the yen strengthening after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama indicated that the government intends to encourage pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase allocations to domestic financial assets. The 20-year JGB yield is down -7.8bps at 3.78%, while the 10-year is -8.7bps lower at 2.778%. The Japanese yen (+0.51%) is rallying for a second consecutive session, trading at 161.54 against dollar as we go to print. There is some scepticism here internally as to whether it'll be easy to encourage domestic pension funds to automatically buy more JGBs. The view is that asset allocations decisions are more slow moving and might actually favour equities first. However for now the move is being seen as a sign that action is being considered.  

Ahead of all that, markets saw a bit of a relief rally yesterday, thanks to easing geopolitical fears, decent tech headlines, and a respectable batch of data. So collectively, that helped to power bonds and equities on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly as falling oil prices reassured concerns about a fresh surge of inflation. So by the close, that meant the S&P 500 (+0.81%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.78%) both advanced, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries (-4.2bps) and bunds (-0.8bps) also fell back.  

Those oil price declines followed headlines suggesting that the escalation between the US and Iran might not prove as serious as initially feared. Most notably, sentiment was supported by comments from President Trump late on Wednesday night, that we mentioned yesterday, saying that Iran wanted “to make a deal so badly”. So when US and European markets reopened yesterday, they were buoyed by the fact that Trump was still talking about some kind of agreement. So that supported oil prices lower, with Brent crude down -2.20% on the day to $76.30/bbl. And in turn, that eased fears around inflation, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (-9.0bps) falling to 2.05%, after rising 27bps on Wednesday.

This backdrop meant that investors dialled back their expectations for imminent rate hikes again, particularly in Europe. For instance, the amount of ECB rate hikes priced by December came down -8.5bps on the day to 31bps. And over at the Fed, the probability of a hike at the upcoming July meeting fell back from 31% to 24%. So that provided a decent tailwind for sovereign bonds in turn, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-7.2bps) and BTPs (-7.0bps) all coming down.

Whilst lower oil prices helped sentiment, markets got another boost yesterday from the latest tech headlines, which saw the Philly semiconductor index (+3.06%) post its best daily performance in 3 weeks. That included a very strong gain for Micron (+4.52%), who raised their planned spending on new US plants to $250bn by 2035, which was $50bn on top of previously announced commitments. The rally also saw the SK Hynix ADR officially became the largest foreign company offering as the South Korean chipmaker raised $26.5bn – greater than expected and just ahead of the $25bn previously raised by Alibaba.

So that chip rally helped to lift US equities more broadly, with the S&P 500 (+0.81%) recovering after back-to-back declines on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rally was fueled by investors rotating from defensives industries back into growth and cyclical names. Autos (+2.91%), Tech Hardware (+1.99%), Semis, +(1.90%), and Banks (+1.61%) were the best performing S&P 500 industry groups, while Consumer Staples (-2.04%), Food & Bev (-1.77%), and Household Products (-1.58%) lagged. And in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.78%) advanced for the first time this week with a similar rotation from defensives into cyclicals.

Speaking of tech, there was an interesting acknowledgement of AI-driven inflation from New York Fed President Williams. He spoke about the potential for demand driven by AI to raise inflation, and said if it “creates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply in inflation, I do think that’s the kind of situation where you don’t look through this”. Meanwhile on inflation more generally, he said that if core PCE were at “two-tenths a month in the second half of this year, that would be consistent with my view of a disinflationary process that’s continuing”. But he also said if it were higher, “ that would be a sign of inflation a bit more persistent.”

The other Fed news from yesterday was the release of the leadership teams of the five task forces that Chair Warsh announced to examine the Fed’s current approach and processes. The areas that the Fed are examining are the communications strategy, the use of the balance sheet, the quality and reliance on existing data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation framework. The teams are mix of former policy makers, academics, and corporate leaders. 

Staying on central banks, yesterday also brought the minutes of last month’s ECB meeting, where they hiked rates for the first time since 2023. It spoke of inflation pressures, and said how “Further indirect effects were in the pipeline, pointing to more broadening of inflationary pressures across the economy”. Moreover, there was an acknowledgment that “memories of the 2022 high-inflation episode could make households and firms react more quickly than in the past, increasing the risk that price-setting and wage-bargaining behaviour would adjust.” Interestingly, there was also a discussion about what happened in 2011, when the ECB hiked rates before reversing course shortly after as the sovereign debt crisis became more severe. But the view was there were key differences with that period, including the lack of financial stress.

Finally, the latest US data yesterday offered fresh reassurance on the labour market, with the weekly initial jobless claims coming in at 215k in the week ending July 4 (vs. 217k expected). So that took the 4-week moving average down to 218.75k, and so far at least, claims remain well beneath their summer peaks in 2023, 2024 and 2025. However, existing home sales unexpectedly fell in June, falling back to an annualised rate of 4.09m (vs. 4.20m expected).

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include Italy’s industrial production for May, and Canada’s employment for June. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Vujcic and Stournaras.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 08:07