Majority Of Americans Say It Would Be Good For Society If More People Were Religious: Poll

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

A majority of U.S. adults (65 percent) say they believe that it would be good for society if more Americans were religious, according to a poll by Gallup.

A man prays following an Ash Wednesday Mass at the Cathedral of St. Matthew the Apostle in Washington, on Feb. 22, 2023. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Gallup's Values and Beliefs survey, released on June 16, found a substantial gap between the sexes, with 70 percent of men agreeing that more religiosity would be good for the country, compared with 61 percent of women.

By age grouping, the younger generations were least likely to agree, with less than half (49 percent) of 18- to 34-year-olds saying it would be good if more Americans had a faith, compared with 66 percent of 35- to 54-year-olds and three in four (75 percent) of those aged 55 and over.

In terms of political affiliation, the vast majority of Republicans (94 percent) thought that having more religious people would be better for the United States, followed by independents (59 percent), and Democrats (51 percent).

"Nonreligious people are the only major subgroup that believes increased religiousness would be negative (55 percent) rather than positive (27 percent) for the nation," pollsters said of the findings of their survey, conducted between May 1 and 17.

Proportion Down From 2013

While nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say that more religiosity would be good for the country, Gallup noted that this proportion is down from the 75 percent of U.S. adults who expressed the same opinion when asked by the polling firm in 2013.

This 10-point shift reflects changes in opinion in most key demographic and political groups, mostly dramatically among women, 18- to 34-year-olds, those with some college, and Democrats - with all those groups shifting opinion by negative 16 points.

The only exceptions were Catholics (up 5 percent), those with no religious affiliation (up 3 percent), and Republicans (also up 3 percent).

The decline mirrors the decrease in religious sentiment across the United States.

According to Gallup findings from March, less than half (47 percent) of Americans say that religion is "very important" in their lives. The reading has been gradually declining from 58 percent in 2012. In 1952, this proportion was 75 percent, and 70 percent in 1965.

Religion Increasing Influence

The latest survey also found that Americans see religion increasing its influence in life in the United States, with 39 percent of U.S. adults saying religion's influence is on the rise. This is among the highest readings in the past two decades, only lower than 41 percent in December 2025 and 40 percent in September 2006.

"The recent increase began after Republican Party victories in the 2024 elections, with the percentage climbing from 20 percent in May 2024 to 35 percent in December of that year," Gallup said.

"The past two readings, from May and December, have been even higher since the GOP has been in office and governing."

Commenting on the findings overall, Gallup said that "while Americans continue to believe a more religious society would serve the U.S. well, fewer hold this view than did in 2013.

"This shift has come as the percentage of Americans who are religious are, by nearly any measure, near historical lows."

Pollsters added that the findings come at a time when the Trump administration "has sought to elevate the role of religion in public life, including by establishing the White House Office of Faith, beginning government meetings with Christian prayers, and encouraging federal workers to express their faith in the workplace."

White House Faith Office

In February 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a White House Faith Office.

The office was tasked with working alongside faith and community leaders to develop policy recommendations for combating faith-based discrimination, strengthening religious liberty, and strengthening families and marriages.

In February of this year, Trump said during the National Prayer Breakfast that there were many signs that faith was returning to the United States.

"Religion is back, now, hotter than ever before," Trump said in his speech at the Washington Hilton on Feb. 5.

"Thankfully, as we gather today, there are many signs that religion is coming back. Now, it's no longer signs.

"It's just coming back; it's coming back so strong. You know, your churches are filling up."

President Donald Trump bows his head during the National Prayer Breakfast at the Washington Hilton in Washington on Feb. 5, 2026. Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty Images Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 21:45

COVID Origins, Lab-Leak Accountability, And The Next Pandemic Threat

The Hudson Institute hosted Dr. Steven Quay on Monday afternoon for a discussion on COVID-19 origins, during which he presented genetic evidence from his new book, The Code as Witness, arguing that the virus originated through gain-of-function research in a Chinese lab.

Years later, there has still been no accountability for what Quay argues was a Chinese lab leak that killed more than one million Americans and caused U.S. economic damages in excess of $18 trillion. Nor has there been a unified U.S. government consensus on the lab-leak theory, let alone on potential consequences for China or Dr. Anthony Fauci.

In the roughly one-hour discussion, which was opened by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), a leading voice for stronger oversight of high-risk biological research, Quay, a Hudson senior fellow, said features encoded in the virus's genetic material point directly to lab manipulation rather than natural zoonosis.

Quay warned that irresponsible and unregulated gain-of-function research is accelerating globally and could produce pathogens far deadlier than the one that caused COVID.

Last week, Outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified a set of internal intelligence slides documenting a long-running US program that has funded a global network of biolabs that handle dangerous pathogens - including dozens in Ukraine.

Returning to Quay's discussion at Hudson, he pointed to several genetic features he says are difficult to explain by natural evolution alone, making it impossible. These include the furin cleavage site, the virus's early optimization for human ACE2 receptors, the ORF8 gene, restriction-enzyme patterns, and the rapid D614-to-G614 mutation.

Hudson Senior Fellow David Asher, drawing on decades of national security and intelligence work at the State Department, spoke with Quay about the confluence of the U.S. government and scientists who censored the lab-leak theory.

Asher told Quay that, years after the pandemic, there is still no formal COVID commission that gives the American people a clear understanding of where the virus came from, who should be held responsible, or a unified government consensus on the virus.

The Quay-Asher discussion then shifted to the biosecurity policy. They spoke of the urgent need for accountability, biosafety reform, and risk reduction as gain-of-function research accelerates globally.

Even with no clear federal government consensus on COVID origins, a recent YouGov poll demonstrated sharp partisan divides among the American people: 80% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats say the virus came from a Chinese lab. Meanwhile, 66% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats think it is definitely or probably true that the virus was released on purpose.

The American people demand accountability. It is time for a COVID commission.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 21:20

From Diablo Canyon Closure Fights To Record-Speed Renewals: The Nuclear Reversal 

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) clocked another subsequent license renewal (SLR) in under 12 months. Southern Nuclear’s application for the two-unit Edwin I. Hatch plant in Georgia cleared the finish line on June 11, extending both boiling water reactors from 60 to 80 years of operation.

Hatch-1 is now licensed through August 2054. Hatch-2 runs through June 2058. That is roughly 1.85 GWe of carbon-free baseload secured into the 2050s. The approval makes Hatch the second and third units to ride the NRC’s new streamlined SLR track that targets decisions in 12 months or less. 

Duke Energy’s Robinson Unit 2 in South Carolina was the first, cleared in what staff called the fastest-ever review earlier this spring. St. Lucie Units 1 and 2, run by Florida Power & Light, received their extensions in late April, stretching Unit 1 to March 2056 and Unit 2 to April 2063.

The NRC has moved a noticeable cluster of applications in 2025 and 2026. 

Oconee, Summer, Point Beach, Browns Ferry, and Dresden all picked up subsequent renewals last year. When the agency signed off on Diablo Canyon’s extension in April it issued its 100th renewed commercial reactor license. 

For years the California plant served as the headline example of the “all plants must close” era. Activists and state policy pushed hard for a 2025 shutdown. After legislative rescue and full federal review, the units now hold approval into the mid-2040s. 

The speed of the recent reviews stands out, as historical SLR proceedings averaged roughly two and a half years. But the NRC has now proven that the staff can reach timely calls while keeping strict safety oversight. Nine Mile Point Unit 1 and Cooper already sit in the accelerated pipeline with decisions expected in 2027, and more applications are queued for later this year and 2027.

The practical result is a growing share of the existing fleet now operating under, or heading toward, 80-year licenses. Research inside and outside the NRC is already examining materials performance and aging-management needs for operation beyond 80 years, with some policy signals pointing toward frameworks that could support century-long runs where the data justify it. 
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 20:30

How Deep Are The Newsoms In It?

Authored by Stephen Green via PJMedia.com,

This deep...

It seems impossible — or just too revolting — to keep up with the financial hanky-panky of California Gov. Gavin Newsom and First Partner (gag) Jennifer Siebel Newsom. But thanks to a couple of investigative reporters with stronger stomachs than I have, let's see if I can't put everything you need to know into one easily digestible column.

I love it when other people do my dirty work for me, so let's get started.

"Today, my wife & I joined Donald Trump’s hit list," Newsom practically boasted on Monday.

"He has directed his Department of Justice to investigate us. They have not found a crime — they are simply trying to find one."

Well, let's see what Fox Business anchor Liz MacDonald and my old friend and Red State colleague Jen Van Laar have to say about that.

MacDonald said Tuesday that the DOJ probe "is about California Democrats’ modern-day machine politics," which she described as a "feedback loop of Sacramento-corporate lobbyists-governor/wife nonprofit-behested nonprofit donations-lucrative state contracts-Sacramento."

Don't bother writing all this down — there won't be a quiz at the end of today's column. You're welcome.

"The modern Sacramento machine trades corporate compliance and nonprofit funding/donations for policy access and state business," MacDonald added, and then explained how that grift (allegedly!) worked for the Newsoms:

According to IRS Form 990 disclosures, her nonprofit frequently buys from Siebel Newsom’s for-profit film company—Girls Club Entertainment LLC—writer, producer and director services and the licensing and production rights for her documentaries. Then it sells the docs to the state and public schools. 

 IRS records show that her nonprofit has paid her Girls Club Entertainment LLC roughly $1.64 million for these production and licensing rights since 2012, which includes a steady annual contracting fee of $150,000 since 2018.

TL;DR: Siebel Newsom produced unwatchable propaganda videos for children, for which Democrat-dominated schools then paid her handsomely. Or as MacDonald summed it up, "Over the past decade, Siebel Newsom has collected over $3.7 million in combined personal salary and LLC payouts funded by the nonprofit."

Then there are behested payments, which MacDonald explained are "a unique mechanism in California politics where an elected official asks a corporation, labor union, or wealthy individual to donate money to a specific charity, nonprofit, or government program." Unlike campaign donations, there are no caps.

As governor, Newsom requested a record $226 million in behested payments in one year.

"Hundreds of thousands of dollars went to the California Partners Project," MacDonald wrote, "a nonprofit founded by his wife."

"Many of the biggest donors were corporate giants (like health insurers and utility companies) actively bidding for lucrative state contracts or fighting state regulations."

One hand washes the other with filthy lucre, if you'll allow me to mix metaphors. 

Which brings us to Jen Van Laar, and her hip-deep-in-the-muck wade through the Newsoms' finances, going back years.

Way back in 2021, Jen asked, "Somebody Paid $3.7 Million Cash for CA Gov Newsom's Estate - But Who?" But couldn't come up with any satisfactory answers. That's because the Newsoms alternately claimed that "the Newsoms’ cash was used to purchase the home but was done through an LLC managed by his first cousin," or that "Newsoms obtained a loan… to purchase the home because the sale happened so quickly that they didn’t have time to obtain a mortgage."

Then, California's First Couple played similar LLC games, buying a second home for $9.1 million in ritzy Marin County. "Based on my examination of 15+ yrs of Newsom's financial disclosures, tax returns, and real estate transactions," Jenn explained in March, "they absolutely did not have $9.1M in cash."

Clearly, somebody did.

The shenanigans were so egregious that — no matter what TDS nonsense Newsom's social media team posts on X — the DOJ investigation began under the Biden administration. As I quipped on Instapundit this week, maybe Newsom needs to take a break from social media and lawyer up. 

Then there are the real-world effects, the fallout from personal corruption and statewide, one-party rule.

On Tuesday, Victor Davis Hanson wondered if California is "reaching critical mass," thanks to one-party rule creating a "neo-feudal society" that is "hardly democratic." The most egregious example was the fate of 2014's Proposition 1, a $7.12 billion water bond "designed to solve the state’s chronic water storage deficit."

Even though Prop 1 is an actual constitutional amendment, including "$2.7 billion specifically designated for new reservoirs," an alliance of bureaucracies, elected officials, and green activists still managed to block any new reservoir construction.

"Adding insult to injury," Hanson continued, "Governor Gavin Newsom instead used $250 million from the Proposition 1 fund to blow up four dams on the Klamath River."

Californians voted for more water infrastructure. Newsom's party blocked them, and Newsom himself had four dams destroyed that had "once provided storage, electrical generation, recreation, and flood control."

Tell me again about Muh Democracy™.

All of which is my long-winded way of concluding that, as corrupt as the Newsoms appear to be, they are merely a symptom of the progressive disease killing our once-greatest state. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 20:05

These Are The States Starting To Panic About AI Taking Over

Residents of Washington state are more concerned about artificial intelligence replacing jobs than workers anywhere else in the United States, according to a new report released in June 2026. The study, conducted by IP address provider Floxy, comes amid growing concerns about workplace automation after more than 54,000 American jobs were reportedly lost to AI-related workforce reductions last year.

To determine where Americans are most worried about automation, researchers analyzed all 50 states using several indicators. The study measured AI adoption rates among working-age residents, assessed how vulnerable local industries are to automation, and tracked search activity for terms such as "will AI replace my job," "AI taking jobs," and "AI layoffs." Researchers also factored in cybercrime rates, identity theft statistics, and the strength of state-level data protection laws.

Each state received an AI Panic Index score ranging from 1 to 99, with higher scores indicating greater levels of concern about AI-driven job displacement.

With an AI Panic Score of 99, Washington tops the rankings. Approximately 4,087 AI-related job displacement searches are conducted per 100,000 residents, the highest rate in the country. Researchers suggest this concern may be linked to the state's close ties to the technology sector, as both Amazon and Microsoft are headquartered there and have recently announced significant workforce reductions tied to AI initiatives. At the same time, nearly one-third of Washington's workforce already uses AI tools, giving many employees firsthand exposure to the technology's growing capabilities.

Wyoming ranks second, with more than 20,000 residents regularly searching for information about protecting their jobs from AI. Although the state lacks the large technology sector found in Washington, around one-quarter of working adults already use AI tools such as ChatGPT, potentially increasing awareness of how automation could affect future employment opportunities.

Nevada places third on the list. The state combines relatively high AI adoption with one of the nation's highest cybercrime rates, creating heightened awareness of technology-related risks. Approximately one in three Nevada workers already use AI tools, and around 55,000 residents search monthly for information about whether AI could replace their jobs.

Massachusetts ranks fourth, with roughly 160,000 residents searching each month for information related to AI-driven job losses. The state's thriving technology and biotechnology industries are advancing rapidly alongside AI innovation, contributing to concerns about automation. With about one-third of adults already using AI tools regularly, many workers are becoming increasingly aware of the technology's potential impact on their roles.

Maryland ranks fifth and records the highest AI adoption rate in the country, with 36.3% of working-age residents already using AI in the workplace. Despite widespread adoption, concerns remain high, particularly given the state's large concentration of technology and knowledge-based jobs that could be vulnerable to automation in the years ahead.

Commenting on the findings, Floxy Chief Technology Officer Aimen Hallou said concerns about AI-related job displacement are well-founded: "These concerns are not overblown. AI was directly linked to tens of thousands of job cuts in the US last year, and that's only counting companies that openly admitted it. Amazon eliminated 14,000 corporate roles, citing AI; Microsoft cut 15,000, and both were explicit about why. The broader reality is that MIT researchers estimated AI can already perform the tasks of roughly 1 in 8 American workers. That number is only going to grow as the tools get cheaper and more capable."

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 19:40

"Zero Hormuz Dependency": UAE Races To Rewire Energy Flows, Bypassing Chokepoint Chaos

The shuttered Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen within days, though conflicting reports suggest the US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be formally signed as early as today, Thursday, or Friday. Either way, the interim peace deal appears likely to be signed within the next 48 hours, setting the stage for energy flows through the critical maritime chokepoint to begin normalizing, a process that could take many months.

The broader takeaway is that buyers of crude, refined products, and LNG now have to rethink their sourcing stack after the US-Iran conflict effectively shut Hormuz for several months. That means diversifying supply chains and reducing exposure to single-point maritime chokepoints. For Gulf energy producers, the Hormuz disruption will accelerate a massive push toward alternative export channels that bypass Hormuz entirely, potentially reducing Tehran's ability to use the strait as a lever in future conflicts.

In the first month of the conflict, Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypassing East-West pipeline ramped up to its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day, allowing the Kingdom to divert flows from Persian Gulf loading terminals to those at Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Separately, there has been a rush across other Gulf states to identify alternatives to Hormuz, and major plans to begin building new pipeline routes may soon be approaching.

Earlier this month, Sheikh Khaled Ahmad Al-Sabah, managing director of international marketing at Kuwait Petroleum, said Kuwait is among the countries that have reportedly held talks with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates about potential cross-border pipelines that could connect Gulf oil production to buyers without relying on tanker transits through Hormuz.

New signals from Gulf states seeking to rewire energy flows emerged on Wednesday in a new note citing a top UAE official who said the energy exporter is preparing to have "zero dependence" on Hormuz.

"We're moving toward having zero Hormuz dependency and that's regardless of whether it's open or not," UAE's Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi told Bloomberg in an interview. "It's going to open and we hope that will happen quickly, but we will not stop the new plan."

The plan includes major investments in pipelines, rail, and road links from UAE ports in the Persian Gulf to Dibba, Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and at least one new harbor on the Gulf of Oman coast.

Abu Dhabi has already announced plans to fast-track a second crude pipeline to Fujairah by 2027 and is now reviewing a third petroleum pipeline, as well as ways to export petrochemicals, LNG, and other energy products without relying on Hormuz.

The UAE can reroute more crude through pipelines to eastern ports, but LNG, aluminum, container imports, and other commodities are harder to shift. Dubai's Jebel Ali remains the world's largest container hub outside Asia, and moving more cargo through eastern ports would raise inland transport costs and boost shipping times.

In recent weeks, the Iraqi cabinet approved plans to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, which would more than triple its existing shipments from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000.

"Iraq is in a much more complicated situation because we know that most, if not all, of its oil transits through Hormuz," Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube, told CNBC in an interview.

What is becoming increasingly clear is that the Hormuz squeeze is rewiring the Persian Gulf's energy map. Over time, that shift could render Iran's leverage over the Hormuz chokepoint far less effective, if not obsolete.

Perhaps Tehran has already read the writing on the wall. That may help explain why Iranian officials are now willing to play ball with the Trump administration through an MoU to reopen Hormuz and eventually enter talks over the country's nuclear ambitions.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:50

James Harden Arrested On Hypocritical Firearms Charge In Texas

Via Gun Owners of America,

NBA player James Harden was arrested over the weekend in Texas for “unlawful carry of a firearm in a motor vehicle.”

But wait, how can carry in a vehicle be unlawful in a state like Texas, where constitutional carry is the law of the land?

On Saturday, June 13 at around 3am, Harden was driving a Mercedes sedan that was part of a group of five vehicles traveling through downtown Houston, Texas.

According to reports, one of the vehicles was pulled over near the 1600 block of Jefferson Street, when Harden pulled up behind it in his vehicle. During the interaction, an officer noticed a handgun sitting in the cupholder of Harden’s vehicle - for which he was arrested under a misdemeanor charge and taken to Harris County Jail after Harden indicated that the handgun was his. 

The charge? “Unlawful carrying of a weapon in a motor vehicle,” a misdemeanor under Texas state law.

But how can that be possible - isn’t Texas a constitutional carry state?

What could possibly qualify as “unlawful carry?”

Well, according to the statute, the carry of a handgun in a vehicle is illegal when:

“The handgun is in plain view, unless the person is 21 years of age or older or is licensed to carry a handgun under Subchapter H, Chapter 411, Government Code, and the handgun is carried in a holster”

Translated from legalese, this means that Texas views any handgun “in plain view” not secured in a holster by someone without a state issued permit to carry, a crime.

A carve out in Texas’s constitutional carry law, the statue says that if a handgun is visible in a vehicle, it must be in a holster.

According to sources writing on the technicalities of the law itself, a firearm not in a holster must be hidden. In a glove box, console, under the seat or in a bag — those are all perfectly legal.

Having the gun out on the seat? Go to jail.

This seems like a massive oversight for a state that by most measurements, is one of the most pro-gun states in the country.

According to reporting, Harden owns the gun legally, and there was no crime committed. While there are conflicting reports about the traffic stop as to whether Harden himself had made a traffic violation or not, the carrying of the firearm itself was legal under Texas law.

The only exception was the technicality of Texas law requiring that handguns in plain view by those without a permit be secured in a holster.

And for that, Harden had to be arrested and taken to jail.

This story got a ton of attention over the weekend because Harden is a famous basketball player, but we at GOA are left thinking, how many other law-abiding gun owners has this exact situation happened to?

Texas must change this law.

That’s why we spoke out about this situation right as it happened.

https://x.com/GunOwners/status/2065904365391454648

If there’s one message, we’d like politicians in Texas to take away from this situation it’s this:

Texas must change its law.

The glaring hypocrisy from a state that has constitutional carry, to be arresting someone for something so pedantic as not having that gun in a holster, in plain view in their own car, committing no crime, is outrageous.

While this may have happened to a celebrity - regular, every day, law-abiding gun owners in Texas are at risk of the exact same situation happening to them.

Lawmakers in Texas should not let that stand.

Change the law. Nobody should be arrested for carrying their firearm simply because of the position the firearm is observed in by law enforcement; it’s a right - not a privilege.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:25

Trump And Iran Sign MOU Deal Ahead Of Schedule

Summary:

• The US and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz ahead of schedule, and the agreement is now in effect, Axios reports.
• Trump admits energy stockpiles "run out in about four weeks" 
• MoU signing could be As Early As Today 
• Trump Says Will "Drop Bombs" If Bad Final Deal 
• 14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Released, Set For Friday Signing

Trump Signs Iran Deal Remotely Ahead Of Schedule

Confirming earlier speculation, Axios reports that the U.S. and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and the agreement is now in effect. The signing - which took place electronically between Trump, Vance and Ghalibaf - reportedly took place at dinner in France alongside President Emmanuel Macron. 

The signing was supposed to happen in Switzerland on Friday, but a diplomat from a mediating country and a second source familiar told Axios earlier on Wednesday that there had been discussions about signing and implementing it earlier

The diplomatic source said the discussions around accelerating the timetable were intended to open the strait sooner than Friday, as both parties were in agreement on that issue. Another factor may have been the political pressure on the White House to release the text of the MOU, which it sitll hasn't done officially. The source familiar with the discussions claimed it was Iran that demanded the text not be published until the formal signing, and denied the White House was responding to political pressure.

The only "public release" so far consisted of a senior administration official reading the agreement to reporters in a briefing call on Wednesday, after days of confusion about what was in it.

Ahead of the signing, Iran's foreign ministry said the sides had agreed that the MOU should be signed electronically by both presidents. For Iran, the signing represents a major victory as it now stands to receive billions in unfrozen (and other) funds from the US and Gulf sources.

While it's now just a formality, the meeting between the U.S. and Iranian delegations headed by Vice President Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is still expected to take place as planned on Friday in Switzerland. They are expected to discuss the launching of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.

The signing took place after this remarkable press conference earlier in the day in which Trump tried to justify conceding to Iran's terms:

As BBC's Siavash Ardalan writes, Trump's responses to the reporters' questions to justify the agreement with Iran were bizarre and unprecedented in their own way:

They asked him how he could allow $300 billion in investment in Iran. He said, "We've already inflicted $2 trillion in damage on Iran; $300 billion is nothing in comparison."

They asked why he's giving Iran tens of billions of dollars. He said, "If we don't return their own money to them, other countries will be afraid to put their money in our banks, and then the dollar's position will weaken."

They asked why the missile issue isn't in the agreement. He said, "We've already destroyed 85% of their missiles anyway; the rest are buried underground, and besides, we sell air defense systems to the countries in the region so they won't worry about Iran's missiles."

They asked if he's not worried that Iran will say, "We're only producing nuclear energy for civilian purposes." He said, "You can't tell everyone else to produce electricity with nuclear power while only Iran can't."

Finally, he said, "If we continue sanctioning Iran, 91 million Iranians will die of hunger—what's the point of that, really?"

Oh, and he joked that "If [the Iran deal] works out, I'm going to take the credit; if it doesn't work out, I'm blaming [Vance]."

Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the signing, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments, and adds that the US is responsible to force Israel to abide by the deal; the official also said the 60-day period starts today.

Trump Admits

President Trump's comment at the tail end of the G7 press conference about rapidly depleting crude reserves may have been the clearest admission yet of what is really driving the urgent push for an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"We run out of reserves in about four weeks," Trump told reporters.

Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

Says it would have been "bedlam" pic.twitter.com/k45MTI8sNs

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2026

View data here.

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

With global SPRs being aggressively tapped to offset lost Gulf energy production while the Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered, the clock is ticking closer and closer to midnight to fully reopen the waterway to restart the normalization process of tanker transits, which may take months.

The longer Hormuz stays closed, the faster emergency stockpiles are drained, raising the risk of an energy cliff, then a much worse energy shock. That urgency appears to be the real force behind the race to secure an interim agreement with Tehran.

Talk of Accelerated MoU Signing Timeline

Axios reports that US, Iranian, and mediator officials are discussing an accelerated timeline for signing the memorandum of understanding, moving it from Friday to as early as Wednesday, potentially via electronic signature.

More from Axios:

• The diplomatic source said the discussions around accelerating the timetable were intended to open the strait of Hormuz sooner than Friday, as both parties were in agreement on that issue.
• Another factor could be the political pressure on the White House to release the text of the MOU.
• The source familiar with the discussions claimed it was Iran that demanded the text not be published until the formal signing, and denied the White House was responding to political pressure.

Even if the electronic signing occurs early, Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf are still expected to meet on Friday in Switzerland to launch multi-month talks on Iran's nuclear program.

The takeaway here is that both sides appear aligned on quickly reopening the Hormuz chokepoint, as the world faces an energy cliff.

Watch Trump 

President Trump is set to hold a very important press conference at the conclusion of the G7 summit in France.

Trump Tells Reporters At G7: We'll "Go Back To Dropping Bombs" if he Doesn't Like Final Deal 

President Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France that the pending U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is "not final" and warned that if he "doesn't like it ... we'll go back to shooting at them."

"If I don't like it [MoU], we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head," Trump said.

Trump repeated: "If they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head."

He added, "Because they misbehaved for 47 years. But nobody could've made this deal. The Obama-era JCPOA handed them $1.7 billion and gave them hundreds of millions of dollars in a Boeing 757. He tried to bribe his way out. I did not do that."

BREAKING: "If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head."

President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.

"If they don't behave, we'll go right back to… pic.twitter.com/67JRcDptYS

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 17, 2026

The proposed deal, expected to be signed on Friday in Geneva, would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and create a framework for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. 

14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Set For Friday Signing

With US and Iranian officials preparing to formally sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, the conflict is entering the much-needed diplomatic phase to avert a potentially disastrous energy cliff. The MoU would open a 60-day negotiating window aimed at ending the war, restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and hammering out the future of Iran's nuclear program.

Bloomberg published the text of the 14-point draft MoU, offering the clearest look yet at the proposed trade: de-escalation and sanctions relief for Iran, in exchange for a ceasefire across all fronts, commitments on shipping access, and a broader nuclear deal to be finalized by the end of summer.

But Iran's Tasnim news agency cited an unnamed official earlier today, saying some of the MoU published by Bloomberg is inaccurate. The report did not specify the discrepancies. Bloomberg noted that some of the wording could be different between the English and Persian versions.

Below is the text of the 14-point draft MoU:

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent

4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement

5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran's nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.

11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.

13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.

14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council

Based on the text above, the first take of the MoU appears to be front-loaded economic relief for Tehran in exchange for a ceasefire, a nuclear freeze, and commitments to negotiate hard topics, such as the nuclear program, at a later date.

Who Stands To Benefit:

Tehran benefits most directly because it gets economic oxygen, oil waivers, frozen funds, sanctions relief language, and reduced US military pressure in the region.

Hezbollah and Iran-aligned actors also benefit if "all fronts, including Lebanon" locks in a ceasefire that constrains Israeli operations.

And, of course, the global economy because global shippers benefit if Hormuz reopens and war risk premiums in crude oil collapse.

The Gulf states benefit if the conflict ends because energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. A report on Tuesday said that QatarEnergy was planning to ramp up LNG production in the coming months.

Where is Leverage Lost:

The US loses some coercive leverage once the Hormuz blockade ends, oil waivers are granted, and asset-release mechanisms begin.

Israel loses freedom of action if the agreement binds the Lebanon front and limits further strikes.

Sanctions and hawks lose leverage because the draft moves quickly toward broad sanctions dismantlement.

The urgency behind the MoU and locking in peace talks for 60 days, with a formal signing event at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland on Friday, stems mainly from the world being headed for an energy cliff, as SPRs globally were being drained to offset the loss of Gulf production with the Hormuz chokepoint shuttered. Brent crude futures edged down overnight, trading around $79 a barrel on Wednesday morning.

One of the biggest uncertainties remains the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated that the critical waterway will reopen permanently and be toll-free, but the MoU suggests the toll-free arrangement may only last through the 60-day negotiation period. Another major uncertainty is Tehran's compliance.

Most Important Overnight Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Deal Framework

• The US and Iran plan to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending the war and limiting Iran's nuclear program

• Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the tentative deal is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement

• Iran is set to receive broad financial incentives including the right to sell oil immediately, access to a $300 billion development fund, and eventual access to frozen assets

• The US would secure at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran after the war under the accord Web Content - US 6:43 AM

• The memorandum states only that Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium be 'adequately addressed,' leaving unresolved the fate of enough material to fuel multiple weapons

International Reactions

• Senate Republicans are pressing the Trump administration for details on the deal and signaled Congress will ultimately vote on the final agreement

• European officials are wary of committing naval ships to clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz because of confusion about how the work would be done and Trump's strict end-of-week timeline

• China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for greater international support for the next phase of Iran-US peace talks on Tuesday, cautioning that the interim agreement marks only the beginning of a longer peace process

• European allies disagree with Trump's optimism that trade can resume by week's end and have practical questions about what was agreed before committing to de-mining missions

Shipping and Energy Markets

• A third fully-loaded crude tanker, the Suezmax Sonia I capable of hauling about 1 million barrels, left the Iranian port of Chabahar on Tuesday night and crossed the US blockade line heading toward Singapore

• Two oil tankers heading toward Africa U-turned in the Indian Ocean this week, switching destinations to the Middle East as shipowners race to re-position vessels ahead of the possible Strait of Hormuz reopening

• Qatar is beginning to bring some of its LNG tankers back to the Middle East, with at least four empty vessels recently heading toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction

• Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in more than three months as the US-Iran deal boosted expectations for a revival in supply

• The prediction market Kalshi assigns a 51% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August 1 and a 68% probability before September 1

Oil Market Impact

• The IEA said world oil consumption will slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, the biggest drop since the Covid pandemic in 2020, as higher fuel prices and disruptions curb buying

• The IEA previously expected a decline of about 420,000 barrels a day, making the revised forecast much deeper than anticipated

• A potential peace deal paves the way for a renewed supply glut in 2027, according to the IEA

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:15

Rare Earth Stocks Pop After G7 Unveils Plan To Reduce Dependence On China For Critical Minerals

Rare earth stocks spiked on Wednesday after G7 leaders agreed to strengthen coordination on critical minerals as they seek to reduce dependence on China-dominated supply chains, according to a new report from Reuters.

Without naming China directly, the group set a goal of limiting reliance on any single external supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to less than 60% by 2030, with a longer-term target of 50%.

Reuters reports that to support that effort, the G7 plans to align critical mineral stockpiling strategies, beginning with lithium and nickel, and establish a new platform for policy coordination, data sharing, market monitoring, and crisis response. The platform will work closely with the International Energy Agency, which will provide analysis and early warnings of supply disruptions and market distortions.

The group also pledged to support investment across the entire critical minerals supply chain—from mining and processing to manufacturing—through development finance institutions, export credit agencies, and private-sector partnerships. Since the start of 2026, governments have announced 195 related projects totaling €64 billion ($74 billion) in investment.

Neha Mukherjee, research manager at consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence commented: "The G7 statement is an important signal of intent, but the pace of diversification will ultimately depend on whether policy support translates into investment ​across the midstream and downstream parts of the value chain."

Despite the commitments, analysts note that diversification will be difficult, particularly because China controls about 90% of global processed rare earth and permanent magnet production. The G7 is also exploring measures such as joint procurement, subsidies, quotas, and price-support mechanisms, while expanding domestic stockpiles and increasing recycling capacity to make recycled materials a significant share of critical mineral consumption by 2030.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:00

Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As "War Unicorns" See Possible Procurement Supercycle

Needham analysts see increasing congressional support for drones and counter-drone technologies as lawmakers advance the latest FY27 National Defense Authorization Act and related appropriations bills. This is bullish for defense-tech "war unicorns" specializing in drones, robotics, autonomy, and counter-UAS systems, as the Trump war economy shifts into higher gear.

Analyst Austin Bohlig launched Needham's FY27 Defense Budget Tracker, which provides clients with updates on next-generation defense technologies, especially drones, robotics, and autonomous systems.

Bohlig said the defense funding framework remains intact, with about $1.15 trillion in total defense spending and about $21 billion allocated for "defensive and offensive unmanned and autonomous systems."

"While the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, including ~$54B for unmanned-related initiatives, remains the largest outstanding variable, we remain upbeat on the overall funding outlook and believe additional funding for unmanned and autonomous systems is likely," the analyst said, adding:

FY27 Defense Authorization and Appropriations Advance:

We believe Congress made incremental progress over the past two weeks in advancing the FY27 defense budget process. Both the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) and Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved their respective versions of the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), authorizing $1.15T in defense spending and advancing the legislation to their respective chamber floors. On the funding side, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee recently approved a defense spending bill largely consistent with the Administration's proposed FY27 budget, providing ~$1.1T in discretionary funding across the DoW. The bill is scheduled to be considered by the full House Appropriations Committee later this month, while the Senate Appropriations Committee needs to continue to draft its companion legislation in the coming months.

$21B Unmanned Budget Remains Intact as Congress Pushes for Additional Investment:

From an unmanned systems perspective, we believe the initial FY27 legislative drafts reinforce and potentially accelerate the DoW shift toward autonomy and robotic warfare. The President's FY27 discretionary budget request includes ~$21B for autonomous systems spanning UAS, USV, UUV, UGV, C-UAS and enabling autonomy technologies. In our prior FY27 Deep Dive , we identified and analyzed many of the largest known unmanned and autonomy-related programs embedded within the defense budget. That said, we believe congressional testimony and proposed legislative language suggest strong bipartisan support for expanding these investments rather than scaling them back. As a result, we have a high degree of confidence that funding for unmanned and autonomous systems will at least meet the Administration's proposed levels, with a growing possibility for upside as the legislative process continues to unfold.

Proposed $350B Incremental Defense Package Remains Up in the Air:

While the FY27 base defense budget appears to be advancing largely as expected, we believe the more important debate is the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, which includes ~ $54B of incremental funding for autonomous systems through the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) program. This funding has become increasingly politicized over the past several months, particularly after Congress decided not to include it in the 2nd reconciliation package in May, creating uncertainty around the timing and likelihood of passage and, in our view, contributing to investor concerns across the defense sector. Although the timing remains uncertain, we remain upbeat on the ultimate funding outlook and believe there are multiple legislative pathways for the DoW to access incremental funding should the current reconciliation approach encounter delays.

Separately, Breaking Defense has reported that the defense spending bill would create a combatant command for drones, reinforcing the congressional push toward unmanned systems as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have spooked the U.S. military into the early chapters of a drone and counter-drone procurement super cycle. The modern battlefield has forever changed.

This is great news for war unicorns operating in the space, with years of tailwinds almost certainly ahead.

Related:

• JPM Call With Axon Reveals Race To Fortify U.S. Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drone Swarms

• Goldman Sits Down With Anduril As 'War Unicorns' Reshape Defense Tech

• "Flying Beer Cooler": Pentagon's Next Kamikaze Drone Ushers In Era Of Cheap Mass-Produced Airpower

Professional subscribers can read much more on military tech at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 18:00

Silt, Anchovies, And Economic Disaster

Authored by Matt Badiali via DailyReckoning.com,

Silt and anchovy scales.

Sometimes the greatest scientific discoveries start with the simplest things.

Today, meteorologists are worried about a severe global event. It’s part of an atmospheric pattern that wasn’t recognized until the late 1960’s. But it has had major economic impact over the decades. And it will have an impact this year if it’s as bad as predicted.

But the story starts with marine mud and frustrated fishermen.

Geologists saw something odd in sediment cores taken off the West coast of South America. The cores looked like layer cakes. One layer of mud, another of fish scales…repeated through the core.

The layers reflect massive shifts in weather patterns. But it wasn’t understood until the late 1960’s. That’s when Jacob Bjerknes, a Norwegian American meteorologist, linked the marine sediment record with atmospheric observations. He recognized that the ocean and atmosphere acted in a feedback loop that had dramatic impacts on the land.

The formal term is the El Niño, Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It gets its name from Peruvian fisherman. They called the warm currents that sometimes occurred around Christmas “El Niño”.

What Bjerknes described was the change in surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. When warm water hits Peru around Christmas, it rains. A lot. The rivers flood down from the mountains and drop an impressive amount of sediment.

The image below shows the warm Pacific from the 1998 El Niño event, compared to the cool period (called La Niña):

The Peruvian fishermen hated these warm currents, because the fishing was terrible. The warm water and strong rains disrupted the local food chain.

Normally, the cold, nutrient rich Humboldt current wells up against the coast. The nutrients feed massive schools of anchoveta and other bait fish. During these periods, the sediments become silvery layers of fish scales and biological debris.

That’s how geologists learned to track atmospheric events. It was a huge breakthrough for scientists. But it also had economic implications.

Major Impact

In modern times, two massive El Niño’s, in 1972 and again in 1982, devastated fish populations. Before 1972, Peru was the largest fishing nation in the world. In 1970, the country caught 12 million metric tons of anchoveta. Then a massive El Niño hit and crushed the fishing industry. The combination of over-fishing (to make up the catch) and the weather devastated the fishery.  In 1973, they landed 2 million metric tons. This caused a global fish-meal crisis. It drove agricultural feed up 250%.

However, the 1972 version was just a warmup. The real monster El Niño hit in 1982. This was an unprecedented weather disaster. Warm tropical waters pushed further south than ever before. The warmth stayed so long that it either killed off or forced cold water fish to migrate to other locations.

This time, the damage wasn’t limited to South America. Fishermen along the eastern side of the Pacific saw reduced catches of critical species. Tuna, smelt, mahi mahi, barracuda and other species suddenly show up in places they are never seen.

Here’s what the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration says about strong El Niño and fish populations in California:

A major consequence of an El Niño is the loss of commercially important species where they traditionally occur. A notable example is the movement of the market squid to cooler waters to the north, away from established fisheries in California. This phenomenon is also true for many rockfish species that move from nearshore areas to deeper or more northerly and cooler waters. Pacific whiting likewise shift northward from their spawning and feeding areas off California, Oregon, and Washington to the more temperate latitudes centered off Vancouver Island.

And that’s only part of the economic impact of a strong El Niño. As we mentioned earlier, El Niño brings rain to the west coast of Peru. That can disrupt mining, along with fishing. But it does more than that. Here’s a general map of weather patterns associated with El Niño (from NOAA.gov):

The international monetary fund (IMF) tracked the real impact of El Niño on GDP growth around the world. They found that countries like Australia, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Peru, and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño.

The study also noted that El Niño brings strong storms to Chile, which disrupts copper mining. Japan sees more typhoon strikes.

El Niño does have some benefits for North America. California usually gets more rain, which helps the farmers. The Northeast sees warmer winters, so it uses less energy. And the east coast sees fewer hurricanes. In fact, there are zero recorded major hurricane strikes on the East Coast of the U.S. during El Niño…except Florida.

Hurricane Andrew struck Miami as a massive category five storm in August 1992. It’s unusual to have the first named storm that late in hurricane season.

If the forecast severe El Niño comes to pass, we can expect food inflation on things grown internationally. If history is correct, coffee, palm oil, and wheat will go up in price. And we can expect some local problems from flooding and severe weather.

It’s not enough to speculate on just yet, but there could be some short-term trades from this oddball weather phenomenon. We’ll keep an eye out.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:40

"Chinese Empire Is Next": Townsend Warns Beijing's Energy Dominance Is Rewriting The Global Order

Veteran energy economist Dr. Anas Alhajji said during last night’s ZeroHedge debate that Iranian crude trading activity reflects a serious peace deal sticking. Alhajji joined Jeff Currie, co-chair of Abaxx Exchange, and Erik Townsend of Macro Voices to weigh in on the Iran deal’s implications for oil prices, which he believes are poised for a significant decline. Townsend, meanwhile, thinks China will come out on top. 

Currie, unlike Alhajji, remains bullish crude due to supply constraints and, assuming Hormuz does open Friday, there is still a 6-week lag before ships begin reaching their destination. That… and there’s no telling what the Israelis will do given that hardliners are already voicing their plans to continue attacking Lebanon, violating a core component of the ceasefire.

Here were some highlights though we recommend the full discussion included at the end:

Alhajji: Iran Deal Is Serious

Alhajji argued the current ceasefire, even if tested, is likely serious.

"The question is, if this deal does not work, what is the default?" Alhajji asked. "It seems that if we have a default, basically, we are going to end up with a status quo where there is no war, no peace," he said. "I don't think we are going to revert to a war. It will be a default somehow of a status quo with attacks from time to time."

Tehran seems to credibly want a lasting peace, Alhajji said, judging by their ceasing of shadow discount sales to China.

"I'm going to tell you something that tells me that this is really serious," he said. "If we go back and study the Iranian behavior, now the market is telling us that Iranians are not able to export most of their oil because of the blockade. Well, that is not the case because if you go back to the era before the negotiations, the Iranians were able to smuggle.”

“When they are certain that there will be a solution, they look at it this way: ‘So, okay, either I sell my own oil to China at 40% discount… Or I wait just for a month or a few weeks, I'm going to get world price.’”

The fact that the Iranians are waiting for worldwide sales indicates a genuine anticipation that a peace deal is tangible.

pic.twitter.com/1Yjv1kYBe0

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026

The Chinese Century?

Host Erik Townsend argued that the current Hormuz crisis may highlight a strategic advantage China has spent decades building:

"I'm sorry, I know a lot of Americans don't want to hear this, but sometimes the truth hurts. China has by far, by far, the most advanced nuclear energy program in the world. They've done more to diversify their energy resources. They've been smarter than anyone else, including us, about planning."

Referencing Currie's recent Carlyle Group research paper called the "New Joule Order," Townsend suggested that energy strategy ultimately shapes geopolitical power.

"Who's in charge of the world really derives from military power," he said. "Military power derives from energy dominance. Energy dominance derives from energy strategy and energy policy. And China's is a hell of a lot better than anybody else's, including ours."

“We went from the British Empire to the American Empire… I think the Chinese Empire is next and I think energy policy is what takes them there."

Currie agreed that the existing global framework is reaching an inflection point, though he argued the next era will be defined by a different form of energy competition.

"I definitely think that we ran the course of Bretton Woods, which was defined by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. dollar, and the global oil trade," Currie said. "I think it's come to a head right now and we need to replace it."

pic.twitter.com/xgSNhQPV6M

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026

Watch the full debate below, on YouTube, or listen on Spotify.

https://t.co/z5iLukR1a7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:20

Trucking Group Asks Federal Court To Strip New York, California Of CDL Authority

Authored by Noi Mahoney via FreightWaves,

The Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC) has filed a court petition seeking to force federal regulators to decertify the commercial driver’s license programs of New York and California.

The Small Business in Transportation Coalition said the U.S. Department of Transportation has failed to enforce federal law after finding states out of compliance. (Photo: Jim Alen/Freightwaves)

The petition, filed June 10, asks the court to review actions by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration and the U.S. Department of Transportation and order the agencies to revoke the authority of New York and California to issue CDLs, escalating a dispute over immigration-related licensing policies and English-language proficiency requirements for commercial drivers.

SBTC argues that FMCSA has already determined both states were in “substantial noncompliance” with federal CDL regulations and therefore must be decertified under federal law. The organization contends that federal statutes require the transportation secretary to prohibit a state from issuing CDLs once such a determination is made.

The filing, made in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, specifically challenges FMCSA’s April 16 final determination regarding New York and also seeks relief related to a Jan. 7 determination involving California.

SBTC alleges the agency improperly failed to act on a petition it submitted in May 2025 requesting decertification orders against several states, including New York and California.

Virginia crash cited in petition

The lawsuit comes less than two weeks after a fatal bus crash on Interstate 95 in Virginia that killed five people and injured dozens more.

According to the court filing, SBTC points to the May 29 crash as evidence that stronger enforcement of federal licensing standards is needed. The organization alleges the bus driver involved held a New York-issued CDL despite concerns about English-language proficiency.

The crash involved a bus operated by E&P Travel Inc. Federal investigators are examining the company’s connections to a broader network of bus operators in the Northeast, according to CBS News. The driver, identified by CBS News as Jing S. Dong of Staten Island, New York, faces five felony involuntary manslaughter charges.

Compliance findings at center of dispute

SBTC’s petition centers on FMCSA’s nationwide review of state CDL programs following changes to federal rules governing non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses.

The coalition says FMCSA’s audits initially identified 24 states and the District of Columbia as being in substantial noncompliance with federal CDL requirements. According to the filing, New York and California ultimately received final notices of substantial noncompliance after federal reviews of their handling of non-domiciled CDL and permit applications.

The petition alleges New York’s noncompliance rate exceeded 55%, while California’s was about 25% during federal audits. SBTC argues those findings legally trigger mandatory decertification orders.

FMCSA previously warned multiple states that they could face funding consequences or additional enforcement actions if they failed to comply with federal CDL standards for non-domiciled drivers.

Latest chapter in broader legal battle

The lawsuit follows a separate high-profile challenge brought by Florida against California and Washington.

In May, the U.S. Supreme Court declined Florida’s request to file an original-action lawsuit alleging California and Washington violated federal law by issuing CDLs to undocumented immigrants.

The case stemmed from a fatal crash on Florida’s Turnpike involving a truck driver who reportedly held a California-issued CDL and had previously been licensed in Washington.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:00

Trump Invokes Defense Production Act As US Moves To Rebuild Weapons Stockpiles

The Trump administration is seeking a major increase in defense spending while simultaneously using executive authority to accelerate weapons production, reflecting growing concern over U.S. munitions inventories after the war with Iran, according to NBC.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Senate Republicans this week to rally support for a proposed $350 billion defense package, much of which would be directed toward replenishing missile and weapons stockpiles.

According to NBC, Sen. John Cornyn said the Pentagon is “running short of funding they need in order to acquire the weapons and missiles and things like that that they need to protect the nation.”

While Republicans are broadly supportive, some lawmakers have signaled they want a clearer justification for the spending, particularly as debate continues over the costs and consequences of the Iran conflict.

Behind the scenes, President Donald Trump has also moved to boost production capacity. Last week, he quietly invoked the Defense Production Act, a Cold War-era law that allows the federal government to prioritize contracts and coordinate industry efforts to expand critical manufacturing.

In a June 11 memo, Trump argued that production bottlenecks and supply-chain challenges could undermine military readiness, writing, “I hereby find that conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs.”

The administration has reportedly been discussing the possibility of using the law since the early stages of the conflict.

The decision comes despite public assurances from administration officials that weapons supplies remain adequate.

Hegseth recently dismissed reports of shortages, saying, “Our stockpiles are strong and they will only get stronger in the future.”

Nevertheless, the administration’s push for both emergency production measures and additional funding suggests officials are preparing for a sustained effort to rebuild inventories and strengthen long-term defense readiness.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 16:40

Of The Elite, By The Elite, For The Elite

Authored by John C. Eastman via The American Mind,

For generations, Democrats have portrayed themselves as the party of ordinary Americans - factory workers, waitresses, truck drivers, police officers, construction workers, and middle-class families trying to get ahead. Yet one of the most striking features of modern American politics is how often Democrat leaders, activists, and media allies seem genuinely baffled by the very people they claim to represent.

The latest example comes from Washington Post columnist Monica Hesse, whose reaction to President Trump’s appearance at a packed UFC event on the White House lawn last weekend revealed a familiar pattern among America’s cultural elites. To tens of millions of Americans, UFC is simply entertainment. It is competitive, exciting, patriotic, and increasingly mainstream.

To Hesse and myriad other journalists and political commentators, however, its popularity seems to require explanation - as though they are studying the customs of a distant tribe.

That reaction says far more about elite America than it does about UFC fans, and few institutions better embody elite opinion than the modern Democrat Party.

The inability to understand ordinary Americans has become a recurring problem for Democrats. Consider one of the most famous campaign images in modern history. In 1988, Democrat presidential nominee Michael Dukakis climbed into a tank in an effort to project foreign policy credibility. Though the campaign intended the image to demonstrate Dukakis’s strength and command in order to reassure wary voters, the photograph instead became a political disaster.

To many Americans, Dukakis did not look like a commander-in-chief - he looked like Alfred E. Neuman from MAD magazine, wearing an oversized helmet and generally appearing out of his element. The embarrassing image became iconic because it captured something larger than a single campaign mistake: a cohort of American elites - consultants, strategists, and media professionals - who apparently thought the photo was a good idea.

The same kind of blindness occasionally appears among establishment Republicans as well. George H.W. Bush’s comments upon seeing a new and improved grocery store scanner became a symbol - fairly or unfairly - of a politician disconnected from everyday life. But while both parties have produced elite figures detached from ordinary concerns, the problem is far more pronounced today on the Left.

Indeed, many of the institutions that now shape Democrat politics are populated almost exclusively by people who live, work, and socialize within a remarkably narrow slice of America. They attend the same universities, read the same publications, and live in the same metropolitan areas. They follow the same social-media accounts. Their children attend the same schools, and their friends share the same political and cultural assumptions.

And increasingly, they seem unable to comprehend how other Americans think.

When Hillary Clinton dismissed millions of voters as a “basket of deplorables,” many Americans viewed the comment not as a gaffe but as a rare moment of honesty. It reflected a prevailing attitude among Democrats, and elites more broadly, that disagreement could be explained only by ignorance, prejudice, or moral deficiency.

President Biden repeatedly displayed a similar tendency. During the 2024 campaign (before he was ousted), he and his allies often portrayed concerns about illegal immigration, inflation, crime, and cultural change as either exaggerated or illegitimate, even as polling showed those issues dominating voters’ concerns. Time and again, Democrat leaders appeared surprised that Americans cared more about grocery prices and border security than about the priorities emphasized by elite institutions.

Vice President Kamala Harris often suffered from the same disconnect. Her public appearances frequently projected the impression that she was speaking to an audience of policy experts rather than to working Americans -when she was not donning fake accents, that is. Her campaign’s struggles were not merely ideological; they were cultural. Many voters simply concluded that she did not understand their lives.

The pattern extends well beyond politicians.

Millions of Americans attend NASCAR races, pack country music concerts, and watch UFC fights. Elite commentators scoff and express bewilderment in response. Millions more display American flags, fill church pews, and worry about rising crime and open borders. Too often, the response from elite circles is not curiosity but contempt.

The Democrat Party once excelled at connecting with ordinary Americans precisely because it better understood their views. Franklin Roosevelt, known as a “traitor to his class,” spoke the language of workers because he wanted them to be part of the Democrats’ coalition for generations. Harry Truman connected with voters because he shared many of their instincts. Even Bill Clinton possessed an intuitive feel for middle-class anxieties and aspirations.

Today’s Democrat coalition increasingly draws its leadership from elite universities, media organizations, nonprofits, foundations, government bureaucracies, and professional-class enclaves. These institutions exercise enormous cultural influence, but they are not representative of America as a whole.

As a result, Democrats increasingly mistake the views traded in faculty lounges, newsroom editorial meetings, and Washington policy conferences for the views held around kitchen tables. That confusion helps explain their shock at one political surprise after another, especially Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024.

Democrat strategists express astonishment after yet another batch of election results defies their expectations. Panels of “experts” search for explanations, and reports are circulated that blame political circumstances or voters’ various “isms.” But the possibility that the Democrats have lost touch with ordinary Americans is rarely, if ever, considered.

A political movement cannot represent people it does not understand. And it cannot understand the views of many Americans, whom it increasingly views with a mixture of confusion, suspicion, and disdain. For a party that still considers itself the party of the people, that is a major problem it has yet to reckon with.

And it is also a problem for America as a whole. A healthy republic depends on officeholders who can understand - and respect - the culture and traditions of their fellow citizens, even when they do not share them. When America’s governing and cultural elites lose the ability to see the nation as it actually is, they make poorer decisions, deepen political divisions, and erode the mutual trust on which self-government depends.

A republic cannot long endure if those who wield influence come to view ordinary Americans not as fellow citizens to be understood but as strangers to be belittled and ignored.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 16:20

Fed Holds Rates Unchanged (As Expected), 'Dots' Signal Hawkish Bias As Warsh Takes Over

Tl;dr: No rate change (as expected) but a dramatically hawkish shift in The Fed's bias (9 members seeing at least one hike this year). Statement smilled down dramatically, also biases towards hawkish focus on price stability (inflation) over employment: "The Committee will deliver price stability".

“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed.” - BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting (Jay Powell's final one as Fed Chair) on April 29th, markets have shifted sharply with oil plunging (along with weakness in gold and bitcoin) while stocks have rallied sharply (shrugging off a brief dip) with bonds unchanged and the dollar modestly stronger...

The US macro-economic data has surprised considerably to the upside since the last FOMC (with strong 'hard' and 'soft' data and the labor market showing significant resilience)...

With both Growth and Inflation signals rising (a dilemma for The Fed)...

Additionally, the market has shifted significantly more hawkish since the last FOMC (still pricing cuts) and obviously dramatically more hawkish since the start of the war...

But this Fed meeting is different as Kevin Warsh takes the mantle from Jay Powell (who remains on the board) as Fed Chair with the key risk for markets is that expectations for a dovish Warsh have become elevated.

So What Did The Fed Do?

The Fed left rates unchanged as expected:

• FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE

• NO DISSENTS

And the statement was dramatically shortened, entirely dropping paragraph 4:

• FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS

No forward guidance in the statement

Read the full red-line below:

Balance Sheet

The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday adjusted the language of its policy implementation note to reflect that it instructs the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to increase its purchases of Treasury bills “when appropriate.”

• According to the implementation note FOMC instructed, “When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”

• That compares with the April memo, which said: “Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”

The 'Dots'

The 'Dots' are clearly signaling an end to the 'easing bias' of the prior Fed: with nine members seeing at least one rate hike this year:

2026 dot distribution changes:

• 3 rate-hikes: from 0 to 1

• 2 rate-hikes: from 0 to 5

• 1 rate-hike: from 0 to 3

• No rate change: from 7 to 8

• 1 rate cut: from 7 to 1

• 2 rate cuts: from 2 to 0

• 3 rate cuts: from 2 to 0

• 4 rate-cuts: from 1 (Stephen Miran) to 0

Only 18 of 19 officials submitted their 'dots' with some suggesting Warsh himself did not contribute

Could this be the last time we see the 'Dots' (with Warsh's notable rejection of forward guidance)?

Economic Projections

The new inflation forecasts are really not good.

Core PCE is seen rising 3.3% this year, well above the 2.7% penciled in back in March.

That means no disinflation from right now, because the most recent core inflation reading was indeed 3.3%.

But, the median forecast of those submitting projections shows inflation slowing to 2.5% next year, but still notably up on 2.2% last time.

Growth is also seen slowing...

...but unemployment improving

All eyes now on Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair which is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.

Will Trump react to the lack of a rate-cut?

Will be ironic if Trump fires Warsh before EOD after he doesn't cut

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:50

Crypto Scammers Using Couriers To Collect Cash, Avoid Detection: FBI

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Crypto scammers are using couriers to pick up cash from victims in person to avoid being traced by banks, the FBI is warning.

The fraudsters first approach targets, typically seniors, with business or romantic proposals via social media, texts, or a fake cryptocurrency investment profile, the bureau said in a June 15 public service announcement alert.

“After establishing a relationship with the victim, the scammer suggests investing in cryptocurrency and instructs the victim to download specific cryptocurrency trading applications and create investment accounts.”

Typically, victims are asked to send wire transfers to various domestic and international bank accounts under the guise of deposit accounts.

They get access to websites showing fictitious returns on investment, which entices them to deposit even more money.

Legitimate financial institutions often flag such transfers as suspicious and block them. To bypass this, scammers are instructing victims to hand over money to fake investment accounts via in-person cash pickups.

The victims are led to believe the money they send will be deposited into their investment accounts.

“Once the cash pickup occurs and the courier departs, victims can see an increase in deposits in their virtual wallet displayed on their account with the scammer’s investment platform,” the FBI said.

“When the victim attempts to withdraw their perceived profits, scammers will begin the loop over by forcing the victim to pay fraudulent taxes and penalties, again using couriers for cash pickups to perpetrate the fraud.”

In 2024 the FBI issued an alert about couriers being used by scammers who had convinced their victims into liquidating their assets into cash or precious metals.

The fraudsters, posing as tech support or government officials, would insist such an action was necessary to protect the target’s funds because their financial accounts were hacked or at risk of being hacked.

In its latest alert, the FBI advised people to protect their personal information, such as banking details, and to never meet with unknown individuals to hand over cash or other valuables as part of any investment scheme.

“Beware of ‘love bombing,’ a social manipulation technique employed by online scammers and other malicious actors wherein a victim is quickly showered with praise, attention, and manipulated to feel trust and intimacy with a person prior to having their lowered guard exploited by a scam or other malicious behavior,” the agency said.

According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, published in April, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received 181,565 complaints regarding various cryptocurrency schemes last year, up 21 percent from 2024.

Losses from these complaints totaled over $11.36 billion. The average loss was $62,604, and 18,589 people lost more than $100,000 each.

The largest group of complaints filed were made by people over the age of 60. They also suffered the highest losses, totaling more than $4.43 billion.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:45

Democrat Politicians Seethe After Baseball Players "Deface" Pride Night With Bible Verses

Recently we reported on the MLB's angry response to three San Francisco Giants players who scribbled bible verses across their "Pride Night" uniforms in a silent protest.  The incident takes place in the midst of a rising tide of popular opposition to the woke movement's political authoritarianism.  Gay pride has become synonymous with the liberal "cry-bully":  Activists who try to assert social dominance over others then play the victim when people fight back.

California State Senator and rabid gay activist Scott Wiener is the epitome of a typical woke cry-bully.  He is perhaps best known as an advocate for the "kink community" and his defense of gender treatments (hormones and sex change surgeries) for children.  He is also a militant supporter of sexualized LGBT propaganda in public schools. 

Wiener has criticized medical facilities that refuse to give gender bending treatments to people under 19 years of age and supported measures to make California a "transgender safe haven".

It's therefore not surprising that Wiener is enraged by anything Christian or biblical entering his big gay domain, and he had a lot to say about the Giant's players who defiled his precious Pride Night. 

Senator Wiener on MAGA Homophobic Backlash Against Major League Baseball:

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to…

— Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) June 16, 2026

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to ‘take back’ the rainbow from LGBTQ people. The players could have displayed this passage any night of the year but chose to do it only on Pride Night.

The Giants, sadly, took no action in response, which is inconsistent with the Giants’ longstanding support for our LGBTQ community. Major League Baseball then warned the players that MLB rules bar defacement of uniforms. The Giants should publicly commit to enforcing rules around uniform defacement and should not effectively create a homophobia exemption to those rules..."

The state senator acts as if the players broke some kind of law.  Baseball club rules are private business arrangements, not statutes that require the the frantic complaints of a homosexual Karen.  That said, Wiener's response to this event is quite revealing. 

Biblical scripture references are not "defacement", at least not of anything sacred.  But to Wiener, the act is the same as if someone burned a Bible or a Koran.  The woke seething over such a minor thing makes it clear that the LGBT movement is not a civil rights movement; that ended decades ago.  Today, the LGBT movement is a political supremacy movement, and prominent athletes have every right to openly oppose it.  

The pride event featured a number of LGBT promotions, including 10 same-sex married couples renewing their vows before the first pitch (what this has to do with baseball is unclear).  Interestingly, the crowd turnout for Pride Night games has been crashing in the past couple years.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors member and Democrat Matt Dorsey, who is openly gay and claims to be a "person of faith", complained on social media about the bible verses.  He called the incident “disappointing in several respects” and he views the players as “problematically undisciplined".  He asserts that professional athletes’ uniforms are not a “canvas for individual self-expression - especially about politics.”   

This issue is, of course, a matter between the players and their employers, not a matter of politics.  However, the woke movement, which is now in decline, views their takeover of American sports as a particularly important coup.  The traditionally masculine industry is now a platform to spread gay Marxist gender theory.  No one would have believed it a couple decades ago, and the political left is desperate not to lose ground in this arena of the culture war. 

D-backs pitcher Ryan Thompson, who is a proclaimed Christian, spoke on the MLB warning SF Giants players who wrote Bible verses on Pride Night caps:

"I think there's a perceived negativity with this stuff. Landen Roupp wrote a verse on his hat that means he's anti something.… pic.twitter.com/SFFJARW6v6

— Blake Niemann (@Blakes_Take2) June 17, 2026

At bottom, leftists view American culture as a series of platforms to be targeted and co-opted.  They were wildly successful for around a decade, but things are changing rapidly now that the general public is aware of the agenda.  Activist politicians like Wiener are angry about a bible verse on a baseball cap because, to them, this is a symbol of their shrinking power over the common discourse. 

The notion of a political movement rooted in forcing the populace to celebrate the aberrant sexual hobbies of its members is not winning the hearts and minds of anyone.  It's doing the opposite.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:25

First Iranian Oil Moves Past US Blockade Ahead Of Deal Signing

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Iran’s first observed crude oil exports in two months have moved past the US blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz in a sign that Iran is wasting no time to take advantage of the tentative deal with the United States.

Following the announcement of the deal this weekend, and ahead of a formal signing ceremony expected in Switzerland on Friday, at least three Iranian crude oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz and departed from the region moving past the U.S. blockade so far this week, tanker-tracking firms have said.

TankerTrackers.com has estimated through AIS data corroborated by satellite imagery that at least two supertankers of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) have moved through the U.S. blockade. The very large crude carriers (VLCCs), named Diona and Hero2, have kade perimeter carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them, TankerTrackers.com said.

“These are Iran's first crude oil exports in two months,” the ship-tracking service said.

BREAKING: CRUDE OIL DEPARTS IRAN FOLLOWING A TWO MONTH LONG NAVY BLOCKADE

According to AIS data which we corroborated yesterday (2026-06-15) by satellite imagery, at least two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertankers named DIONA (9569695) and HERO2 (9362073) have… pic.twitter.com/tSesQTcC6K

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) June 16, 2026

Another tanker of the National Iranian Tanker Company, the Stream, is approaching the U.S. blockade line from the exclusive economic zone of Pakistan, where she spent the past 7 weeks waiting to enter Iran, according to TankerTrackers.com.

Kpler has observed a third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude that exited the blockade line on Wednesday.

“Iran is wasting no time getting its tankers back into circulation,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

The VLCC Dan of the NITC has left the area near the Riau archipelago where it has been dark since May 23 and is now heading to Iran for loading, Bockmann added.

The Iranian oil tanker traffic is intensifying, with the deal that would launch 60-day negotiations set to be signed in Geneva on Friday. In addition, Iran is preparing to take advantage of the U.S. allowing Iranian oil sales immediately upon signing of the agreement. Under the agreement expected to formally end the war between the United States and Iran, Tehran will be allowed to immediately resume oil and fuel sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the details of the deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:05

"The Kevin Warsh Era Has Arrived With A Bang": Wall Street Reacts To Warsh's First FOMC

Below is a snapshot of several kneejerk reactions from some Wall street economists, strategists and traders:

Anna Wong, head economist at Bloomberg:

“The Kevin Warsh era has arrived with a bang – in the form of a dramatically shortened FOMC policy statement and a dot plot that didn’t contain any dot from the chairman himself. That marks a break from the eras of former chairs Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke. But the rest of the committee sent an equally strong signal: They want rate hikes. Half of the committee penciled in hikes this year, while the other half anticipates holding rates steady or cutting once. That means Warsh could play a key role in influencing the direction of rates. We no longer expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points later this year.”

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis

"Thinks this is overall a hawkish move -- rates steady, easing biased removed, no dissents. The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability….all in all, a hawkish statement... The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability…. all in all, a hawkish statement.”"

Kay Haigh, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

"Today’s meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices. Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data. Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data.”

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Economics

“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed. Warsh’s stamp on the statement seems evident, with language moving closer to the style used before the Global Financial Crisis. The effort to make the Fed less transparent may reduce day-to-day volatility, but it risks larger jumps when the Fed’s reaction function or economic data surprise markets... “We thought Warsh might be diplomatic in taking on his post as Fed chair, and the creation of these task forces allows for shifts in the way the central bank functions, while giving everyone within the building a voice and giving him a means to express his own views while assessing the those of others.””

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management

“Warsh turned the table over in the Eccles Building with a radical simplification of the Fed’s policy announcement. By doing this, he’s actually inviting more Fed-speak, not less. Now every Fed President will fill the gap left by the punchy policy announcement. This may backfire on Warsh.”

David Wilcox, Bloomberg Economics: 

"The committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. That’s notable, because the statement didn’t have to address it -- and analysts had been thinking one way Warsh could slim down the Fed’s balance sheet would be to revert from ample reserves to scarce reserves,” Wilcox said. “Today’s statement suggests they’re not doing that -- at least not right off the bat.”

Marvin Loh, State Street

“The biggest initial message from Warsh is that the commutations process is changing if we look at the wholesale changes to the policy statement. Bare bones is an understatement and for a market that has become accustomed to extensive Fed communications, we may need to read between the lines more closely with less lines available. We can now wonder how long the presser will last.”

Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Investment Managers

“The market moves reflect a repricing of Fed credibility and independence. Inflation is clearly back at the center of the reaction function of the central bank and someone is at its helm. This reinforces a higher-for-longer real rate environment.”

Developing

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:48