US Jobs Jump 115K, Smashing Estimates; Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 4.3%

In his preview of today's NFP report, Goldman's Delta One head wrote that "NFP almost feels like a sideshow at this point. You can argue weak labor data gives a Warsh led Fed enough cover to cut, but with oil and input inflation still elevated there’s also an argument that a weakening labor market alongside a constrained Fed is actually the more difficult combination for risk assets." With that in mind, moments ago the BLS reported that in April the US added a red hot 115K, above the median consensus of 65K (and near the upper end of the forecast range which peaked at 133K), down from an upward revised (for once) 185K (originally 178K). This was the first back to back gain in jobs in a year.

The change in February jobs was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from +178,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported

A look below the surface reveals a less impressive picture: while payrolls rose to a new record high, actual employment has dropped to the lowest since January 2025...

... as the monthly change in payrolls has disconnected dramatically from actual jobs, which dropped by 226K in April and are now down 4 months in a row!

Also worth noting: while it's seasonal, in April the US saw 391K jobs added only in speadsheets thanks to a surge in Birth/Death model adjustments, the highest since October, and clearly a revision of the previous trend of revising birth death adjustments lower.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations, which is odd since all major ethnic groups saw their unemployment rate increase...

... while the Labor Force Participation Rate dipped to 61.8% from 61.9%. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little in April. These measures edged down over the year after accounting for annual population control adjustments. 

Wage growth came in cooler than expected, rising 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% expected, and translating into a 3.6% annual increase, also below the 3.8% expected.

Some more details from the April report:

• The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 358,000 to 2.5 million in April. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million and accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 445,000 to 4.9 million in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.1 million in April. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in April. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was also little changed in April at 475,000. 

Looking at the composition of the report, employment edged up by 115,000 in April, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. 

• Health care added 37,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 32,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in nursing and residential care facilities (+15,000) and home health care services (+11,000).
• Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 30,000 in April, reflecting a gain in couriers and messengers (+38,000). However, employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 105,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025.
• Retail trade added 22,000 jobs in April. Employment increased in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (+18,000) and in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+13,000). These gains were partially offset by job losses in department stores (-7,000) and in electronics and appliance retailers (-2,000). Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. 
• Social assistance continued to trend up in April (+17,000), reflecting a gain of 24,000 jobs in individual and family services.
• Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent. Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received (or will receive) pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.
• Employment in information continued to trend down in April (-13,000). Telecommunications lost 3,000 jobs, while employment continued to trend down in motion picture and sound recording industries (-6,000) and in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-4,000). Information employment is down by 342,000, or 11.0 percent, since its most recent peak in November 2022.
• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Visually:

A few things stood out here: the monthly increase in courriers and messengers (i.e. DoorDash delivery(, +38K, was the highest since covid!

Government was also notable: total government jobs have now declined every month since October, and arr down 9 of the past 10 months.

But that is nothing compared to the depression in the Information sector, where jobs are now down every months since 2024!

Finally, looking at the quality composition of the jobs report, we find that in April, the US added 123K part-time jobs, while 424K full-time jobs were lost.

The drop in full-time jobs dragged the total number of full-time workers to levels last seen in December 2024!

The only silver lining: after plunging at the end of 2025 and start of 2026, and after a big drop in March, native-born workers rose by 341K in April, while foreign-born dropped by 326K.

In short, this was a much uglier jobs report than the clearly "nudged" headline indicates, although we doubt that anyone in the market will notice when all that matters if whether memory stocks today have momentum or not.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:25

Ukrainian Drone Strike Paralyzes Airports Across All Southern Russia

Russian cities and communities are busy preparing Victory Day WW2 memorial events all across the country ahead of Saturday, and so security is already on edge and on high alert, especially in the Moscow area, given that Ukraine's devastating cross-border drone attacks have persisted and expanded of late.

On Friday air traffic at 13 airports across southern Russia was suspended after drones struck a building at a regional air navigation center in Rostov-on-Don, Russia's transport ministry confirmed. This was the crucial air traffic control center for the whole region, and so its being taken offline has had significant impact.

Airspace empty over southern Russia

Regional media has listed that it halted flights to and from airports in Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Gelendzhik, Grozny, Krasnodar, Makhachkala, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Sochi, Stavropol and Elista.

"The regional air traffic control center in Rostov-on-Don, which manages air traffic in southern Russia, has been temporarily adjusted due to the Ukrainian drone strike ... personnel are safe, and equipment is being assessed" to determine whether operations can be restored, the ministry said on Telegram.

According to the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times, "Aeroflot, Pobeda, Nordwind and Rossiya Airlines said they were adjusting their flight schedules for Friday and would need to cancel some flights. At least 14,000 passengers were stuck due to delays and cancellations, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia said."

"Russia’s Transportation Minister Andrey Nikitin asked major airlines to coordinate with the state-owned Russian Railways and the Unified Transportation Directorate to arrange for trains and buses to transfer passengers from canceled flights," the report noted.

On the same day, over 260 drones were intercepted across various sectors of the country - which suggests that in total at least several hundreds were sent. Once again, some of them reached as far away as the Perm region in the Ural Mountains.

The drone waves have continued despite that Russia unilaterally announced a ceasefire corresponding with V-Day events commemorating victory over Germany in WW2. The ceasefire runs May 8-10; however, Ukraine has not acknowledged this.

Still, the Defense Ministry is acting as if it is on and it is official, having announced in a statement Friday morning that it has observed 1,365 violations by Ukraine since midnight.

✈️ A couple of drones paralyzed Russian aviation — airports are collapsing again

UAVs struck the building of the “Air Navigation of Southern Russia” branch in Rostov-on-Don. Operations at 13 airports have now been suspended.

Aeroflot is massively cancelling and delaying… pic.twitter.com/9A3B8XowAX

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 8, 2026

The Kremlin is putting the Ukrainian capital on notice, telling foreign diplomats to evacuate in the instance that Ukraine's military tries to disrupt Saturday celebrations in Moscow and Red Square.

Russian leaders have wared Kiev will get pummeled in an unprecedented bombing if President Zelensky orders any drone attacks on Moscow. He had actually appeared to threaten precisely these events during remarks earlier in the week.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:20

OpenAI Valuation Doubts Loom As Softbank Scales Back Margin Loan

SoftBank Group's abrupt scaling back of a planned $10 billion margin loan backed by its roughly 13% stake in OpenAI - now targeting as little as $6 billion - reveals deepening lender unease over the AI giant’s $852 billion post-money valuation set in March 2026.

The move follows earlier $40 billion bridge financing and comes amid reports that OpenAI missed internal revenue and weekly-active-user targets earlier this year.

While the loan itself is SoftBank’s problem, the episode carries real risks for OpenAI.

The clearest danger is a loss of valuation momentum (a down-round!).

Reuters reports that lenders, including banks and private-credit funds, balked at assigning reliable collateral value to unlisted shares in a company whose secondary-market demand has already cooled.

With sellers reportedly outnumbering buyers and rival Anthropic drawing stronger interest, the episode reinforces perceptions that OpenAI’s headline valuation may be frothy.

This could make future capital raises more expensive or dilutive, especially if OpenAI needs additional funding to service its enormous compute commitments - estimated in the hundreds of billions over the next few years.

An anticipated IPO, once seen as straightforward at premium multiples, might now face haircuts or heavier scrutiny from public-market investors wary of missing-growth signals.

SoftBank’s own leverage adds indirect pressure.

The Japanese conglomerate is one of OpenAI’s largest backers and has layered significant debt atop its AI bets.

Should credit markets tighten further or OpenAI’s performance lag, SoftBank could face margin calls or be forced to sell secondary shares - flooding an already thin market and driving down perceived value.

That, in turn, might erode employee and partner confidence, complicate talent retention in a hyper-competitive sector, and chill the broader AI investment narrative that has sustained OpenAI’s sky-high spending.

While none of this is immediately existential - OpenAI retains strong revenue growth, marquee partnerships, and Sam Altman’s (circular) deal-making clout - the SoftBank loan retreat is a tangible warning: private-market exuberance can evaporate quickly when lenders demand proof that eye-popping valuations match real cash flows.

If sentiment sours further, OpenAI could find itself navigating a far narrower runway than its $852 billion price tag once implied... and as OpenAI goes, so goes the hyperscalers' budgets as the circular financing of all this spend breaks down with any chinks in the armor of of OpenAI's exponential growth expectations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:04

Pandemic? Trump Remains Confident Hantavirus Situation Under Control

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on May 7 that he had been briefed on a hantavirus cluster tied to a cruise ship and that he was hopeful that the situation was still contained, as federal health authorities track the American passengers who returned home. The president also said he expected more information on Friday.

Trump offered his assessment to reporters regarding the outbreak aboard the MV Hondius, which had passengers from multiple countries, including the United States. The vessel was traveling from Ushuaia, Argentina, through Antarctic waters and made various stops before reports of severe respiratory illnesses began to emerge.

“It’s very much, we hope, under control,” Trump told a reporter from ABC News.

“It was the ship. And I think we’re going to make a full report about it tomorrow. We have a lot of great people studying it. It should be fine, we hope.”

Trump was then further pressed by the reporter on whether Americans should be concerned.

“I hope not,” he said. “We’ll do the best we can.”

The president noted that officials planned further announcements on the matter. Public documents from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention affirmed the U.S. government is following the situation closely with U.S. travelers aboard the ship. The State Department is leading a coordinated response, including contact with passengers and engagement with domestic and international partners.

“We have a lot of people—a lot of great people are studying it,” Trump said.

According to CDC statements, the risk to the American public is described as extremely low. Health officials in at least several states are monitoring individuals who disembarked from the affected vessel. No widespread transmission among the general population has been seen, according to available public health updates.

Hantavirus infections, generally tied to rodent exposure, can cause serious respiratory issues. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported cases related to the ship, such as confirmed infections and fatalities among passengers of various nationalities.

The CDC notes on its website ongoing technical cooperation with international partners on the outbreak.

The CDC has gathered experts on the specific hantavirus strain in question, revealed by the South African Ministry of Health on May 5 to be the Andes variant, which is understood to be capable of person-to-person transmission under limited circumstances.

Hantavirus has a history in the Americas.

The CDC has noted hundreds of cases in the United States over decades, particularly linked to rural rodent contact, not travel clusters.

This ship-associated outbreak stands out for its scale and setting, leading to rodent control reviews and sanitation assessments per international ship health guidelines.

The WHO said on May 7 that there are eight cases linked to the cruise ship, including the three individuals who died amid the outbreak. Five of the cases have been confirmed to be Hantavirus.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 08:40

Futures Rebound, Trade At All Time Highs On, What Else: Tech And Iran Optimism

US equity futures are higher and just shy of a new record, with technology names leading futures higher ahead of April jobs report, after Trump’s assertion that the Iran ceasefire is still holding despite an exchange of weapons between the US and Iran overnight, and a deep weekly loss for oil help futures regain positive momentum. Markets are higher ahead of NFP data later this morning following yesterday’s very ‘unwindy’ session (High Beta Momo -7.96%, Software vs Semis +5.83%, Power -3.44%, HF VIP Longs -1.36%). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.5% and are back over 7,400 while Nasdaq futures gain 0.7%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA +0.9% and TSLA +0.9%.Sentiment reversed from Thursday's drop after Trump last night said the recent US strikes on Iranian military facility does not affect the ceasefire status. This morning there are reports that Iran seized an oil tanker for violations (one which was carrying Iranian oil). The Ocean Koi tanker attempted to “disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.” (Tasnim) Trump’s 10% global tariff under the Section 122 was found unlawful by the US Court of International Trade, but the outcome was mostly irrelevant. A busy night with AI headlines: (i) NVDA and IREN announce strategic partnership on AI infra; (ii) CoreWeave fell on weak revenue guidance and higher spending forecast; (iii) SK Hynix reported that they have received offers to invest in chip production lines. (iv) TSMC posted 17.5% growth in April sales, slowest in six months. Oil (WTI Crude) is unchanged at $94.80; bond yields are 1-3bp lower the 10Y yield at 4.38%; The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses. precious metals erased earlier gains with ags all higher. Today's economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am). 

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +1.4%, Alphabet +0.05%, Nvidia +0.9%, Microsoft +0.03%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Apple +0.8%)

• Akamai (AKAM) rises 25% after the company announced that a leading frontier AI model provider had committed to $1.8 billion over seven years for its Cloud Infrastructure Services. The company also reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• Block (XYZ) gains 7% after the digital payments company forecast adjusted operating income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Expedia (EXPE) drops 7% after the online travel company forecast tepid gross bookings for the second quarter, with analysts pointing to macroeconomic pressures weighing on guidance.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises 23% as Roth analyst Justin Clare raised the recommendation to buy on growing orders.
• Forward Air (FWRD) plunges 45% after the transportation services firm said it received no actionable proposals for a sale.
• JFrog (FROG) rises 14% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as conservative. Analysts highlighted an acceleration in cloud revenue growth as a highlight.
• Innodata (INOD) climbs 39% after the professional services company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 7% after the drinks company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate. JPMorgan raised its price target.
• NLight shares (LASR) rise 13% after the maker of semiconductor laser products reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) climbs 7% as the space company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Trade Desk (TTD) falls 12% after the advertising-technology company reported adjusted first-quarter earnings that missed expectations.
• Wendy’s (WEN) rises 4% after the fast-food chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

In AI-related news, TSMC posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue expansion since October, highlighting the potential challenges of sustaining a torrid AI-fueled pace of growth. AI data center operator CoreWeave gave a disappointing forecast for the current quarter, sparking concerns about slowing growth at a time when the company is spending heavily to bolster its operations.  SoftBank Group has downsized plans for a $10 billion margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake after facing hesitation from some creditors, people familiar with the matter said. And a key company behind Thailand’s national AI effort is suspected of helping to smuggle billions of dollars worth of Super Micro Computer servers containing advanced Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers. In other corporate news, Toyota Motor forecast an abrupt drop in operating profit due to higher raw material costs from disruptions stemming from the Iran war. Citigroup is expanding its foreign-exchange business with hedge fund and private-equity clients as global trading volumes rise

US stocks rose at the end of a week in which optimism that the conflict is nearing an end and blowout earnings from major tech firms drove the S&P 500 to a succession of records. Hopes that oil flows would soon resume through the Strait of Hormuz also eased inflation worries, even as uncertainty remains over how soon the US and Iran can reach an agreement. US markets were the standout performers on a tough day for stocks elsewhere as clashes in the Middle East risked undermining efforts to secure a permanent end to the war. Stock indexes in Europe and Asia fell. Brent advanced as much as 2.9% before trimming the move to trade just above $100 a barrel. Treasuries rose ahead of April’s payroll numbers, with the two-year yield falling one basis point to 3.90%. UK government bonds advance, led by longer-dated maturities after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party. 

“For now, investor sentiment remains strong as the equity market is looking through high oil prices,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “We continue to stress that the strength of earnings is heavily concentrated in IT sectors. These sectors are also the least exposed to physical supply chains and commodity pass-through.”

In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran said it seized a tanker that appeared to be a sanctioned vessel carrying its own oil. Meanwhile, US forces targeted missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran that they said were responsible for attacking US warships transiting the strait. The clashes came as the US awaited a response from Iran on a proposed deal to open Hormuz and end the war. President Donald Trump threatened more intense strikes if Iran refuses his terms.

A pause in worrying headlines out of the Middle East would allow markets and the Fed to focus on nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. New York for fresh clues about US economic resilience. Bloomberg Economics expects 57,000 jobs were added in April, slightly below sellside consensus for 65,000, while the “whisper” number is 71,000. Options pricing around the print continues to drift lower, with S&P 500 options implying only about a 0.6% move on the release (our full preview is here).

“I would expect a stronger-than-expected set of figures to keep Fed hawks in charge, without necessarily taming equity appetite,” wrote Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Softer-than-expected figures “could revive dovish Fed expectations and provide further support to equity valuations, provided that war headlines leave some room for reaction.”

Jobs are a hot topic in more ways than one this Friday. Block offered a sunnier outlook for profits and growth after orchestrating layoffs linked to AI that executives said were painful but necessary. Cybersecurity firm Cloudflare plans to cut one-fifth of workers as it accelerates its shift to an agentic AI-first operating model. Upwork intends to reduce its workforce by about 24%, while Fidelity is overhauling its tech and product teams.  In all cases “the increased adoption of AI tools is a huge factor,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said on the recent bout of job cuts. He cautioned “this type of behaviour tends to be contagious.”

Meanwhile, investors flocked to cash and bonds last week and emerging market stocks saw their biggest outflows since January, according to Bank of America. The US had its sixth week of equity inflows at $9.3 billion, BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Elsewhere, aggregate retail investor equity flows on Citadel Securities’ platform surged back to elevated levels last week.  In other investing news, 43% of large cap active funds are outperforming their benchmarks, according to a BofA analysis of US mutual fund performance, better than the 29% that outperformed last year. Separately, some hedge fund categories, such as macro funds, appear to still have room to increase their equity exposures, according to JPMorgan strategists.

A pillar of support for equities may not be quite what it seems, according to Bloomberg Macro Strategist Simon White. Buyback announcements are surging this year. However, the risk of disappointment is rising as actual repurchases heavily lag the original commitments made, Simon writes. 

Jeffrey Gundlach said he was repositioning some of DoubleLine Capital’s funds for the scenario that the US government could restructure its debt in response to a potential future recession. A publicly-traded private credit fund managed by Goldman Sachs put two additional companies on non-accrual status in the first quarter, as the industry grapples with mounting concerns over exposure to businesses vulnerable to AI-driven disruption. 

With earnings season in its tail end, of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far, 84% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.5%, led by declines in insurance and travel stocks while media and energy outperformed. Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

• Bechtle rises as much as 6.9% following its first-quarter results as Jefferies says the IT services provider’s positive momentum has continued
• Brembo shares rise as much as 8.5% and are set for a record weekly gain after robust first-quarter results that prompted Banca Akros to raise its recommendation on the Italian auto parts firm
• Ferrovial rises as much as 3.6%, the most in a month, after the infrastructure group beats first-quarter expectations, with US managed lanes driving performance and construction also seen as solid
• Pirelli advances as much as 3.4% after delivering an in-line performance in the first quarter and slightly boosting its revenue guidance for the full year
• Rheinmetall shares fall 2.7% on Tradegate versus Germany’s Thursday close after JPMorgan cut its rating to neutral from overweight and slashed its price target by almost 30%
• Deutsche Lufthansa falls as much as 2.7% after Barclays downgraded the airline to underweight from equal-weight, saying tailwinds from routes typically served via Gulf hubs are likely to fade as capacity returns
• Commerzbank falls as much as 2.4% after its latest earnings. Analysts say the lender’s upgraded targets are ambitious, but also viewed with some skepticism as the bank steps up its defense against a hostile takeover attempt by UniCredit
• Intertek shares fall as much as 7.9%, the most in two months, as the testing and inspection company rejects EQT’s latest takeover proposal of £58.00 per share in cash

Earlier, Asian stocks fell to trim weekly gains as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.6% following a two-day rally as some investors took profit ahead of Iran’s response to a US peace proposal. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and SoftBank weighed the most on the regional decline. Still, the index has risen more than 5% for the week and was poised for its longest winning streak since January, driven largely by a sustained tech rally. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Information Technology Index has surged over 13%, its best week since late 2022. Across the region, markets saw renewed risk-off sentiment on Friday after the US struck military targets in Iran in response to attacks on three Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia, Indonesia and Hong Kong were among the hardest hit.

In FX, the pound gains 0.4% after PM Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party; the dollar falls across the board. The Norwegian krone is leading gains among the G-10 currencies, rising 1.2%.

In rates, treasuries hold small gains in early US session, led by front-end and belly sectors as oil prices stabilize. Oil prices partially unwind Thursday’s rebound despite escalation of Middle East war, with US and Iran clashing near the Strait of Hormuz.  US yields richer by 1bp-2bp in belly of the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.37% is down 1bp with UK counterpart outperforming by around 5bp. Gilts outperform as UK Prime Minister Starmer vows to stay on despite election setback. Gilts rallied over early London session after Starmer said he’d remain as Labour leader despite the party’s election losses

In commodities, oil prices are little changed with Brent crude futures near $100 a barrel. Precious metals rise with spot silver up almost 3% and on course for a fourth day of gains. Bitcoin rises 0.5%.

Today's economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (11:05am and 2:20pm). Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee are panelists at Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference (7:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5%
• DAX -0.7%
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.37%
• VIX -0.1 points at 17.03
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1188.44
• euro +0.4% at $1.1769
• WTI crude -0.8% at $94.08/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump said Thursday that attacks on Iran after it targeted U.S. destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were a "love tap," and said the ceasefire between the two countries is still in effect. ABC
• Iran is ramping up trade with China via rail to blunt the impact of a US blockade of its ports. The number of cargo trains going from Xi’an to Tehran has risen to one every three or four days from around one per week before the conflict BBG
• US prosecutors suspect a Thai AI company of helping smuggle Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers, people familiar said. BBG
• The White House has invited a scaled-back CEO delegation to accompany President Donald Trump to Beijing next week, reflecting divisions in the administration on economic policy toward China and ‌limited expectations for the summit. RTRS
• Sir Keir Starmer has refused to quit after a disastrous night for Labour at the polls, insisting: “I’m not going to walk away . . . and plunge the country into chaos.” With the first results in, Labour is heading for the worst local election results by any party this century. FT
• A federal trade court ruled that President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose new global tariffs after a previous set of levies was struck down by the Supreme Court in February. The decision on Thursday from the Court of International Trade invalidated Trump’s attempt to impose a new 10% tariff on goods from virtually every nation by invoking authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act. WSJ
• Big Tech’s record $725bn AI investment strategy is beginning to strain the resources of America’s largest companies, leaving them with less cash left over this year than at any point in the past decade. The combined free cash flow of the four “hyperscalers” — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta — is expected to fall to roughly $4bn in the third quarter, according to Wall Street’s forecasts, down from an average of $45bn in each quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago. FT
• Anthropic is weighing raising tens of billions of dollars this summer to fund a vast expansion in computing capacity, in a move that would catapult it past rival OpenAI to a valuation of almost $1tn. FT
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions during the night and shows no attempt to hold the cease fire.
• US VP Vance expressed concern to tech CEOs over new AI models which can autonomously find software vulnerabilities. The White House is considering an executive order to create a formal oversight process for advanced AI models and has asked Anthropic to limit access to Mythos for organisations managing critical digital infrastructure: WSJ
• Increased hyperscaler capex has come at the expense of buybacks, which fell by 64% year/year for the group during 1Q. The hyperscalers now allocate 20% of total spending to buybacks and dividends compared with an average of 34% from 2017-2022. We expect minimal hyperscaler buyback growth through 2027. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler capex amounting to 100% of cash flows from operations this year, which in turn leaves little room to return cash to shareholders without a sharp deceleration in capex growth, a large drawdown of cash balances, or a major increase in debt. Some of the buyback headwind from the hyperscalers will likely be offset by increased buyback activity among the beneficiaries of that capex, such as semiconductor firms: Goldman Sachs

Iran Latest: Reports surrounding a potential deal:

• Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal and is expected to formally respond on Friday, according to CCTV citing Pakistani sources.
• Any agreement with Iran would be bad for Israel, even if it includes an agreement to eliminate enriched uranium, Israeli press reported citing an official.
• Iran and the US are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal, NYT reported. Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. The talks over a short-term agreement are continuing, the officials said, with negotiators trading proposals over how to describe the framework for a potential permanent deal. The three Iranian officials said a key obstacle was the US demand for commitments in advance on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
• "A diplomatic source told Al Arabiya: Ensuring the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.", Al Arabiya reports.

Iran Latest: Commentary following the US-Iran strikes:

• Iran's Top Joint Military Command said US violated the ceasefire by targeting Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz; Iran will respond powerfully and without the slightest hesitation to any attack.
• US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians; Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations. On energy, said we do not need to export curbs on oil and fuel.
• US President Trump posted that there was no damage done to the three US destroyers that came under fire; states that Iran is led by lunatics and that the US will knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast.
• US President Trump tells ABC that the retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets are just a 'love tap' and the ceasefire continues to be in effect.
• US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes on Iranian military facilities; Iranian attacks were unprovoked but no US assets were hit; do not seek escalation.
• The situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal, according to Press TV.
• Saudi Arabia has not permitted the use of its airspace to support offensive military operations, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
• There is a high state of alert in anticipation of retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah following the assassination of the Radwan Force Commander, Israeli Channel 12 reported citing sources.
• Saudi Arabia has imposed restrictions on some aspects of US activity related to military operations in the region due to fears of possible Iranian attacks without direct US support or response, ISNA reported citing a i24 sources report.

Iran Latest: Reports of overnight strikes:

• "US military attacked Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, an American official told me. The American official claimed that the attacks do not constitute a renewal of the war with Iran", Axios' Ravid posted.
• A massive fire at the site of Iran's attacks last night; large fire previously detected in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam province, has moved; another big fire has been detected 30km west of Lark Island, Tasnim reported.
• UAE announces that air defence systems are responding to a missile threat.
• Hearing explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, ISNA reported.
• Reactivation of air defence in western areas of Tehran, Mehr News reported.
• Several explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, IRIB News reported.
• Explosion was heard in Abu Dhabi, Fars News reported citing Arab sources.
• Three American destroyers were attacked by the Iranian Navy near the Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim sources say.
• An explosion was heard in Minab, SNN reported.
• Further explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Mehr news reported.
• Air defences have been activated in West Tehran, Mehr News reported.
• Air defences shot down two hostile drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, Mehr News reported.
• Explosions heard in Qeshm due to the confrontation of defences with small birds, ISNA reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the red as geopolitical tensions rose, with the US Military and the Iranian Navy exchanging fire. Despite US President Trump announcing that the ceasefire remains in place, bourses failed to see any positivity. ASX 200 opened on the softer side and extended lower, nearly wiping out the gains seen in the past 2 sessions. Real estate and Financials weighed on the index, with Macquarie being dragged down despite reporting FY earnings that beat estimates. Nikkei 225 pulled back from the ATH formed in Thursday’s session amid the negative risk tone. SoftBank has dragged the Nikkei lower after ARM tumbled on smartphone market weakness and AI chip supply concerns. Sony reported FY25/26 earnings, with operating income missing estimates, however announced a JPY 500bln share buyback programme. KOSPI slipped, as investors profit-take following the recent strength in the index, primarily driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the broader risk-off tone, as Shanghai Comp. outperformed its Asia-Pac peers with only modest losses.

Top Asian News

• Japan intervened in the FX market during the May holidays, according to sources.
• Singapore is to implement new curbs on executive condos, making them fully privatised after 15 years, CNA reported.
• China's Finance Ministry conducts issuance of CNY 45.8bln to support the development of pre-school education, CCTV reported.
• Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.20 (Prev. 53.0).

European bourses (STOXX -0.7%) are almost entirely in the red, with sentiment today pressured by recent flare-ups between US-Iran, whereby US struck Iranian ports which led to retaliatory attempts from the Iranian side. Though, indices are attempting to clamber off lows, with markets focusing on President Trump downplaying the attacks, calling them nothing but a “love tap”, noting that the ceasefire remains in place. European sectors are entirely in the red, display a market fearful of the current geopolitical environment; with cyclical sectors (Travel & Leisure/Consumer Products) residing at the foot of the list, whilst Energy is amongst the top performers. As for key movers this morning: Commerzbank (-0.5%, in-line metrics, raised targets and plans to cut 3k jobs), IAG (-2.7%, strong metrics but cut FY26 capacity outlook; sees strong demand), Intertek (-3%, rejects EQT’s GBP 9bln offer) US equity futures are broadly modestly firmer this morning, in contrast to the downbeat mood in Europe. In terms of key pre-market movers: CoreWeave (-6.6%, Q1 profit miss, Q2 revenue guidance missed expectations, and it raised capex forecasts), Gilead (-0.8%, mixed guidance, despite beating Q1 sales expectations).

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer said he will not be walking away and will be PM into the next general election.
• UK PM Starmer said results do not weaken his resolve, and takes responsibility for outcome.
• Labour may end up losing less than 1500 council seats in England, which may come as some relief for No.10, Journalist Schofield writes citing a poll guru.
• Reform UK Leader Farage said his party is so far exceeding his election results predictions.
• UK's Milliband reportedly told PM Starmer he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure, via Times. The sources said Miliband made the suggestion during a private meeting with the prime minister about a fortnight ago.

FX

• DXY is on a softer footing after gaining in the prior session as geopolitics heated up. To recap. US and Iran had a brief skirmish, although the US later downplayed it and suggested the ceasefire is not broken, whilst Iran said the US broke the ceasefire, but said the situation around the islands has gone back to normal, although commentary from Iran has been somewhat sparse vs the US. Ahead, participants will be on the lookout for further geopolitical update, and then the US jobs report (full preview available in the Research Suite) and with a few central bankers on the docket, including Fed's Cook, Waller, Goolsbee and Bowman. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 97.90-98.27 range.
• GBP benefits from a softer USD and digests the initial results from the Local Election. The initial readout from the UK local elections is not as bad as some feared for Labour, potentially providing limited/temporary respite to PM Starmer. Reminder, numerous key councils are yet to report. GBP/USD towards the top end of a 1.3543-1.3622 range.
• EUR/USD is firmer and trades towards the upper end of a 1.1721-1.17736 range, underpinned by the softer Buck. In trade, President Trump said the EU had promised to deliver its side of the deal and cut tariffs to zero, adding the bloc has until July 4th or tariffs would immediately rise to higher levels.
• JPY is flat intraday vs the USD in a narrow 156.63-156.99 band following another volatile week, although the pair remains under its 100 DMA at 157.33. The pair consolidates in a tight range just shy of the 157.00 handle, as talks of FX intervention calmed, with Japanese markets looking ahead to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit to Japan.
• Antipodeans post modest gains amid high-beta properties, a rebound in commodities, although gains are capped by the cautious tone across markets awaiting clarity on the US-Iran situation.

Fixed Income

• USTs began the European day near-enough flat. Since, as energy wanes a touch, the benchmark has lifted more convincingly into the green. However, the current 110-22 high is someway shy of Thursday's 111-03+ peak. For the US, the day is dominated by NFP, but of course, geopolitics remains in focus and we await an update on yesterday's activity which, according to the US, did not violate the ceasefire.
• Bunds spent the morning lower by around 20 ticks, as the residual global energy bid, Dutch TTF gains and the potential for elevated US tariffs from July kept yields modestly elevated. However, as above, the magnitude of this has waned across the morning thus far, with around half of that downside trimming, to a 125.72 high. But, as with USTs, still someway shy of Thursday's 126.14 best.
• Gilts initially opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to a 87.21 low, down by 33 ticks at most but just above Thursday's 87.13 base and by extension comfortably clear of 86.52 and then 85.76 from earlier in the week. Initial pressure in reaction to the late-Thursday geopolitical escalation, and as the UK local elections show a shift from Labour to Reform, alongside marked Conservative losses and a significant but somewhat less-than-expected move toward the Green Party (though, we await key London areas for more data). Note, we still have a lot of the count to go, with key areas reporting from 12:30BST onward; however, the scale of Labour losses is not as bad as feared and will likely provide PM Starmer with some respite.
• A point which, alongside Starmer confirming he will not resign and intends to lead the UK into the next general election, has allowed Gilts to move into the green and actually outperform peers with gains of nearly 40 ticks to a new WTD high of 87.89. Strength spurred by the market's preference for stability. However, we await the Manchester numbers around 12:30BST which could be a momentum for Burnham to set out his case. Followed by key councils from 16:00BST onward, including Starmer's own Camden council around 18:00BST, in addition to the Senedd and Holyrood. As such, the modest Gilt strength we are seeing and the easing of UK yields may yet prove fleeting in the days/weeks ahead.
• Australia sold AUD 1.0bln 1.25% 2032 AGBs: b/c 4.01x, average yield 4.7406%.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, US and Iranian forces exchanged major attacks near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran allegedly targeted three US Navy destroyers with missiles, drones, and fast boats; the US said it intercepted all threats and retaliated with strikes on Iranian military sites. The US military carried out strikes in Iran's Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official. The official said it was not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire. The UAE was simultaneously hit by renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, most were intercepted by air defences, though several injuries and disruptions were reported. Despite the escalation, President Trump said the April ceasefire still stands, while warning that failure to reach a broader deal with Iran could lead to much heavier bombing and further regional instability. Meanwhile, Iran’s Press TV said conditions on Iranian islands and coastal cities near the Strait of Hormuz had returned to normal. Seemingly the lack of continued attacks seen as "more positive than feared", with energy initially gapping higher at the resumption of trade before gradually waning as attacks stopped.
• WTI and Brent futures waned from overnight highs, and now post incremental losses. WTI currently trades at the lower end of a USD 93.82-98.64/bbl range, with Brent hovering around USD 99.60/bbl, within a USD 99.55-102.92/bbl range.
• Dutch TTF has fallen back towards EUR 44/MWh from earlier prices north of EUR 45/MWh. Traders are on the lookout for clarity from the Iranian side on whether the ceasefire still stands and whether diplomacy will continue.
• Spot gold is firmer as the DXY eases with oil. The bullion trades towards the top end of USD 4,673-4,734.90/oz parameters, off yesterday's USD 4,775/oz. Gold also sees underlying support on renewed buying interest after the PBoC’s purchases, with China raising gold reserves for an 18th straight month in April, adding 260k ounces.
• Base metals are mostly firmer and benefit from the broader losses in the USD amid a lack of further US-Iran escalation following the initial skirmish. 3M LME copper resides towards the top end of USD 13,273.60-13,616.70/t.
• China to raise retail diesel and gasoline prices by CNY 310/Mt and CNY 320/Mt respectively from May 9th; part of regular price review, CCTV reported.
• Freeport Indonesia (FCX) has pushed back the full restart of its Grasberg copper mine by a year.
• Taiwan is reportedly finalising a 25-year US LNG deal valued at USD 15bln with Cheniere Energy (LNG).
• Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay refinery (630k BPD) has returned to normal operations, according to reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• China and US are in communication on US President Trump's visit, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
• US reportedly suspects that a Thai firm smuggled chips to Alibaba (BABA) , Bloomberg reported.
• The US and South Africa have started preliminary discussions over potential resources deals including bilateral investments in mining, energy and infrastructure, FT reported citing sources.
• The US Trade Court has ruled against President Trump's 10% global tariffs.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 65k, prior 178k
• 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 2.5k, prior 15k
• 8:30 am: United States Apr Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
• 10:00 am: United States May P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 49.5, prior 49.8
• 10:00 am: United States Mar F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%

Central Bank Speakers

• 11:05 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC
• 2:20 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
• 7:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee on Panel

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, markets have slipped back thanks to questions about whether the US-Iran ceasefire is holding. Indeed, there’s been a clear escalation in the last few hours, with the US striking targets in Iran after they fired on three US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. And in turn, Trump posted that “we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” So Brent crude is back up +1.58% this morning to $101.64/bbl, having been beneath $100/bbl for a good chunk of yesterday’s session. However, markets still aren’t pricing in the worst-case scenario, as Trump told ABC News that “the ceasefire is going. It’s in effect”, referring to the US strikes as a “love tap”.

Questions around the ceasefire have already had a market impact in Asia overnight, where all the major equity indices have lost ground. That includes the Nikkei (-0.69%), the KOSPI (-0.73%), Hang Seng (-1.17%), CSI 300 (-0.90%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%). Moreover, European equity futures are down, with those on the FTSE 100 (-0.70%) and the DAX (-0.87%) both lower, although US futures have picked up a bit after yesterday’s losses, with S&P 500 futures up +0.21%.

Prior to all that, Brent crude (-1.19%) had posted a modest decline yesterday to $100.06/bbl, but that was a decent recovery from the intra-day lows of $96/bbl given there were no obvious signs of progress towards a deal. Moreover, as reports of explosions in Iran came through, that pushed oil prices even higher, so whilst Brent crude spent much of the day beneath $100/bbl, it was just above that mark by the close.
These more negative headlines weighed on broader risk sentiment, leading the S&P 500 (-0.38%) to pull back from its record high. And on top of the geopolitical headlines, we also had a hawkish batch of US data, with numbers on the labour market and inflation both surprising on the upside. For instance, the NY Fed’s latest survey showed 1yr inflation expectations up to 3.64% in April (vs. 3.5% expected), which is the highest since September 2023. So that raised expectations about a more hawkish response from the Fed. And that came on top of strong labour market data, with the weekly initial jobless claims at 200k in the week ending May 2 (vs. 205k expected), which took the 4-week moving average down to a two-year low of 203.25k.

That hawkish newsflow continued with various Fed speakers. In particular, Boston Fed President Collins (a non-voter this year) said she agreed with the hawkish dissenters who didn’t want to include the easing bias in the statement. So that added to the sense there was wider scepticism around further rate cuts. We also heard from two of the hawkish dissenters. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said her own outlook was that “interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.” And Minneapolis President Kashkari said that “if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period of time, it may well be that the next move might need to be up in interest rates.” So investors priced in a more hawkish outlook, with markets pricing a 38% chance of a rate hike by March 2027 at the close, up from 21% the previous day. And in turn, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.6bps) up to 3.91%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.8bps) rose to 4.39%.

This backdrop meant it was a tough one for equities as well, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) falling back from its Wednesday record. Indeed, the losses would have been even bigger were it not for the Mag 7 (+0.71%) reaching another record. So the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.67%) saw its largest decline in almost four weeks, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.63%) struggled even more. And over in Europe, there were also broad declines, with the STOXX 600 (-1.10%) posting its biggest decline in over a month, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.02%), the CAC 40 (-1.17%) and the FTSE 100 (-1.55%).

Looking forward, we’ll get more data today with the US jobs report for April. That’s an important one, as Fed pricing has already shifted in a hawkish direction given the energy shock, and last month’s payrolls were at a 15-month high of +178k. This time round, our US economists are looking for payrolls to come in at +50k, which would actually mark the first back-to-back positive reading since May last year. Meanwhile, they see the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. 

Elsewhere today, the UK will be in focus, as we’ve just started to get the results from the local elections overnight. We’ve only got a few results so far, but the governing Labour Party have suffered heavy losses in the seats they were defending, whilst Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has seen major gains. Today, it’ll be important to watch what Labour MPs and cabinet ministers are saying, as gilt markets are focused on whether PM Keir Starmer will remain in post following the results. That’s because of expectations that a new Labour leader might ease the fiscal rules and raise gilt issuance, so when Starmer’s position has come into question, that’s coincided with selloffs for gilts.

Before all that, sovereign bonds were fairly steady across Europe yesterday, with the 10yr bund yield (+0.1bps) remaining at 3.00%. There had been more of a rally earlier in the session, but that unwound as oil prices moved higher again, with yields tracking those moves. So yields on 10yr gilts (+0.9bps) and OATs (+0.4bps) also saw a modest increase, although those on BTPs (-0.6bps) came down slightly. Otherwise, investor expectations of an ECB rate hike in June were also steady yesterday, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a hike by the close, up from 79% on Wednesday.

Finally, there were a couple of noteworthy headlines on US trade yesterday. First, the 10% global tariff currently in place was found to be unlawful by the US Court of International Trade. That’s the one the administration had imposed under the Trade Act of 1974, after the Supreme Court ruled against the previous IEEPA tariffs earlier this year. But for now, at least, the Court of International Trade only blocked them from enforcing it against the companies that sued and Washington State. The second story was that Trump set a deadline of July 4 for the EU to “deliver their side of the Deal”, or tariffs would be raised.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US jobs report for April, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May, and German industrial production for March. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Nagel, the Fed’s Cook, Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoE Deputy Governor Breeden.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 08:23

"Thermal Event" Triggers Service Disruptions At Amazon AWS Cloud Hub In Northern Virginia

Amazon Web Services said that recovery efforts are still underway after a "loss of power during a thermal event" disrupted a Northern Virginia data center on Thursday evening.

"Mitigation efforts remain underway to resolve the impaired EC2 instances and degraded EBS volumes in a single Availability Zone (use1-az4) in the US-EAST-1 Region," AWS wrote on its Service Health page, indicating that its operational issue for "Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (N. Virginia)" remained "impacted" as of early Friday morning.

AWS shifted traffic away from the affected zone for most services and told customers to use other Availability Zones in US-EAST-1, noting that data centers in other zones were unaffected.

"The work to bring additional cooling system capacity online, which will enable us to recover the remaining affected infrastructure in a controlled and safe manner, is taking longer than we had initially anticipated," AWS stated.

The AWS disruption in Northern Virginia caused Coinbase's services to be affected overnight.

On May 7th Coinbase experienced service disruptions. Here’s a quick summary of what happened:

→ Around 8PM ET, Coinbase systems flagged high error rates across multiple services.
→ We traced these errors to amazon failures in Availability Zone (use1-az4) in the AWS US-EAST-1…

— Coinbase Support (@CoinbaseSupport) May 8, 2026

AWS did not provide details about what caused the "thermal event" at one of its data centers in Northern Virginia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 06:55

The World's Biggest Fusion Reactor Just Hit A Milestone

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

• The final components of ITER's central solenoid magnet -- a 59-foot, 3,000-tonne superconducting system 15 years in the making -- have arrived in France, clearing a major path toward first plasma.

• ITER will never supply electricity to the grid; it exists purely as a research tool, and at €22 billion and counting, it's still years from achieving its primary milestone.

• A wave of well-funded private fusion startups is on track to hit the same technical benchmarks as ITER faster and more cheaply -- raising real questions about the megaproject's relevance even as it celebrates progress.

The world's biggest nuclear fusion experiment just got one huge step closer to completion. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in Cadarache, France just received the final shipment of necessary components to assemble the giant magnet at the heart of the reactor. The central solenoid magnet, developed in the United States at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is a critical component of the massive experimental site, which is cooperatively funded and operated by a coalition of seven major world economies: China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States.

The central solenoid is awe-inspiring in its size as well as its capabilities.

"The central solenoid is 18 meters (59 feet) tall and 4.25 meters (14 feet) wide, composed of six individual modules," Interesting Engineering reported earlier this week.

"Each module weighs more than 122.5 tonnes (135 tons) and is wound from 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) of niobium-tin superconducting cable."

And this is just one component of a jaw-droppingly massive apparatus that represents "the grandest scientific experiment in the world". ITER's tokamak (the donut-shaped device designed to confine plasma with ultra-powerful magnets) measures a kilometer in length. The solenoid magnet as its core is therefore almost inconceivably powerful, and it's just one part of a much bigger and more impressive system. "This component belongs to a magnetic system weighing 3,000 tonnes (3,300 tons) that interacts with nine vacuum vessel sectors," Interesting Engineering goes on to say.

This beating heat of ITER has been 15 years in the making, with each individual module requiring a two-year process for fabrication and testing. ITER will never produce power to supply to the energy grid, but will serve as one of the most important – if not the most important – research projects on Earth to solve the puzzle of creating commercial nuclear fusion, the holy grail of clean energy. Nuclear fusion is the energetic process that powers our own sun. Replicating that process here on Earth could essentially provide limitless clean energy. It's a potentially long-lasting, ultra-efficient energy source that leaves behind zero greenhouse gases and zero hazardous radioactive waste, unlike nuclear fission.

But the scale of ITER, and the unprecedented nature of its goals, has led to increasingly long timelines and a ballooning budget for the slow-moving megaproject. While the delivery of the solenoid marks a major milestone, ITER is still years away from achieving first plasma, around €22 billion and nearly two decades after breaking ground.

ITER is still relevant, and will hopefully bring us invaluable scientific findings that would be impossible without its grand scale and budget. But the megaproject is facing increasing competition from smaller and more dexterous fusion ventures. Various other projects are on track to beat ITER to its mapped goalposts, and much more inexpensively.

The race for nuclear fusion is increasingly going private as investors start to recognize the technology as a matter of when, and not if. Interest from the tech sector is also ramping up as Silicon Valley scrambles to find a panacea to the energy monster that the AI boom has unleashed. As a result, a lot of deep-pocketed entities are now focused on fusion like never before.

"If you know how to build a fusion power plant, you can have unlimited energy anywhere and forever. It's hard to overstate what a big deal that will be," Bill Gates wrote in an October essay.

"The availability and affordability of electricity is a huge limiting factor for virtually every sector of the economy today. Removing those limits could be as transformative as the invention of the steam engine before the Industrial Revolution."

A new rush of Wall Street-backed fusion startups is already answering this call to arms, rapidly changing the scientific and economic landscape for nuclear fusion research everywhere. But ITER's backers argue that its looming obsolescence is a sign of the project's success rather than its failure, indicating that its achievements and high profile have inspired the current flood of private investing dollars into fusion research and development. And, if nothing else, ITER now stands as a vanishingly rare symbol of international cooperation for global interests, rather than nationalized and protectionist energy agendas.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 06:30

Political Warfare? Advocacy Group With Ties To Lefty Unions Targets SpaceX IPO

The SOC Investment Group is a union-aligned shareholder advocacy organization formerly known as CtW Investment Group. It works with union-sponsored pension funds to mount pressure campaigns against public companies.

SOC's latest pressure campaign appears to target Elon Musk's SpaceX in an attempt to delay or derail the upcoming IPO.

The union-affiliated pension fund adviser, linked to the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) - a labor union that has supported the left-wing, billionaire-funded "No Kings" protest against President Trump...

... has asked regulators to review the accuracy and reliability of SpaceX's financials, ensure auditor independence, and examine accounting around transactions with other Elon Musk-linked companies, including xAI and Tesla.

The InfluenceWatch database via Capital Research Center shows SOC's ties with lefty unions... 

To note, SOC is weirdly obsessed with unhinged globalist ESG investment activism that damaged the U.S. economy during the Biden-Harris regime years.

SOC warned that investors could be exposed to SpaceX, whose valuation may decline once its financial disclosures are independently reviewed. Oddly enough, SOC is not a SpaceX shareholder but has previously pushed governance pressure campaigns at major companies, including Tesla.

"We are specifically concerned that SpaceX's IPO will expose numerous investors, many unwillingly, to a company whose value may decline once its financial disclosures can be independently assessed and verified," the letter said.

SpaceX is preparing to go public in less than two months, and SOC's letter to regulators appears intended to create regulatory friction with the SEC over what could become the largest IPO in history. The timing is very notable.

A successful SpaceX IPO at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation could dramatically expand Elon Musk's wealth and power, potentially transforming him into the world's first trillionaire.

From an information and political warfare lens, SOC's pressure campaign should be viewed less as a SpaceX governance issue and more as part of a broader left-wing operation against Musk's corporate empire.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 05:45

Baltic States Warn Of Unfunded Debt Surge For Europe's Defense Splurge

In a rare outbreak of sanity from the continent that perfected kicking the can, officials on NATO’s eastern front are openly admitting what Brussels and Frankfurt have spent years denying: you can’t fund a permanent war footing with infinite borrowing and hope the bond market never notices.

Estonia’s outgoing ECB rate hawk Madis Muller dropped the red pill in parliament Thursday, bluntly telling lawmakers that jacking up budget deficits to pay for the defense surge is no long-term solution. “These higher defense expenditures are not temporary,” he warned. The message: the party is ending, and the tab is about to get ugly.

Next door in Latvia, Finance Minister Arvils Aseradens echoed the warning, calling for “every possible instrument” to secure sustainable funding. He even threw support behind Canadian PM Mark Carney’s pet idea of a multilateral defense bank, because nothing says fiscal responsibility like creating yet another supranational borrowing vehicle to paper over the cracks.

Both Baltic states, sitting on the razor’s edge with Moscow, not to mention sharing a border with the Russian bear, have massively ramped up military outlays in recent years. Their spending has exploded even as existing social welfare commitments continue to balloon budgets already teetering under the weight of Europe’s sacred model. Welcome to the European conundrum in 2026: you need guns to deter Russia, but the welfare state can’t be touched, and nobody wants to tell voters the truth about taxes.

The broader picture across the continent is grim. European nations are scrambling to square exploding public debt with an unfunded defense boom while somehow still pretending they can keep the lights on for Ukraine’s war effort. The math simply does not add up.

Estonia’s Debt Trajectory: From Poster Child to Problem Child

Estonia, the euro-area’s former fiscal hawk with just 1.3 million people, now finds itself in the crosshairs. Its debt-to-GDP ratio remains a relatively modest 24%, but that’s changing fast. Public debt is projected to more than double: from €10 billion ($11.8 billion) in 2025 to €21 billion by 2030. The IMF has already raised concerns, and Fitch downgraded the country’s sovereign rating back in 2023 as investors began pricing in geopolitical risk and demanding higher yields.

On Thursday, Estonia’s central bank doubled down on its earlier warnings: act now while you still have the luxury of being one of the EU’s least indebted nations. Because that window is closing fast.

Tallinn’s much-touted “defense tax” introduced in 2024? Already watered down and nowhere near enough to cover the actual sums required.

This is the inevitable endpoint of Europe’s post-2022 panic: politicians who spent decades hollowing out defense budgets in favor of green deals, migration costs, and generous entitlements suddenly discover they need actual military capability. Rather than make hard choices — cut elsewhere, raise taxes transparently, or rethink open-ended commitments — the default instinct is to borrow more and hope the ECB or some new “defense bank” magically makes the numbers work.

Spoiler: it won’t.

The Baltics are simply saying out loud what markets have been whispering for months. Permanent defense hikes require permanent revenue, not more creative accounting and supranational debt vehicles. Europe’s eastern flank is learning the hard way that you cannot deter Russia with PowerPoint slides and growing interest payments.

The real question now isn’t whether Europe will boost defense spending, it will and will then quietly shuffle most of the funds into various green (and not so green) grifts under the guise of an "existential threat." It’s who ultimately pays - and whether the bond vigilantes will wait patiently for the answer. Given the trajectory, the real question is when does the emperor's nudity finally get confirmed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 04:15

Hungary Returns Ukrainian Bank Cash & Gold Seized During Election Campaign

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Hungary has returned money and valuables belonging to Ukrainian state-owned bank Oschadbank after authorities seized the shipment earlier this year while it was being transported from Austria to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the return on Telegram on Wednesday, saying the assets had been seized by Hungarian special services in March, a move he claimed had been unjustified.

“Today, the funds and valuables of Oschadbank, seized by Hungarian special services in March of this year, were returned,” Zelensky wrote.

“I thank Hungary for the constructive and civilized step,” he added.

The shipment, which reportedly included cash and gold belonging to Oschadbank’s Ukrainian branch, was stopped by Hungarian authorities during a period of high tension between Budapest and Kyiv.

Hungarian officials said at the time that the bank workers involved were suspected of money laundering.

The Ukrainians were later released, but the authorities retained the seized assets until now.

The incident occurred during Hungary’s parliamentary election campaign last month, when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had made criticism of Ukraine a central part of his political messaging.

His government was also locked in a dispute with Kyiv over the interruption of Russian oil supplies through Ukraine to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline.

Orbán, who had long clashed with Ukraine and its European backers over sanctions, aid, and energy policy, was defeated in April’s election.

Péter Magyar, the leader of the Tisza party, will now succeed him, and the new Hungarian parliament is expected to be sworn in on Saturday.

The return of the Oschadbank assets follows a broader easing of tensions between Budapest and Kyiv.

Despite multiple claims from Ukraine during the election campaign that the Druzhba pipeline could not simply resume due to damage inflicted by Russian shelling, Kyiv promptly resumed the flow of oil to Hungary and Slovakia shortly after Orbán’s election defeat.

At the same time, Budapest stopped blocking final approval of a €90 billion European Union loan to Ukraine.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 03:30

Russia Outraged At Its Ally Armenia For Hosting Zelensky: 'Whose Side Of History Are You On?'

Russia is seething after its Caucasus regional ally Armenia decided to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a European summit earlier this week.

Moscow is further warning against Yerevan pursuing closer relations with the European Union as well. The Kremlin slammed Zelensky being hosted there, right in Russia's own backward, as "incomprehensible".

Source: Perry-Castañeda Library

"Russian society, with deep indignation and bewilderment, not only saw but remembered that Armenia, which we are used to considering a friendly, brotherly country, served as a platform. For whom? For a terrorist," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday.

"The current, illegitimate Kyiv regime has been issuing threats to strike Moscow during the annual parade on May 9, a day sacred to our peoples... And no one in Armenia’s current leadership rebuked Zelensky. So whose side of history are you on?” she posed.

"Such a course by the Armenian authorities will sooner or later lead to Yerevan’s irreversible involvement in Brussels’ anti-Russian line, with all the ensuing political and economic consequences for Armenia," she said.

However, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has responded to the pressure, stating: “Back in 2022-2023 I already stated that, on the issue of Ukraine, we are not an ally of Russia.”

He is also reportedly refusing to attend Moscow’s Victory Day parade on Saturday, saying he needs to stay in his country in order to prepare for parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.

Armenia has long been a key member of the regional Russian-led bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, Armenia froze its participation since 2024, outraged over Russia's failure to protect ethnic Armenians during Azerbaijan’s 2023 takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia since played a 'peacekeeping' role with some limited troop deployments, however, Armenian Christians had already been booted from the ancient enclave.

Russian MFA tells Armenian ambassador: UNACCEPTABLE to provide platform for Zelensky to voice TERRORIST threats against Russia

VIDEO: Zelensky meeting Armenia’s Pashinyan in Yerevan on Monday pic.twitter.com/AfyL0J8bqO

— RT (@RT_com) May 7, 2026

So relations have been fraying, to say the least. PM Pashinyan made clear Thursday: "We have sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and I have said that we are not allies of Russia on the issue of Ukraine."

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 02:45

The EU Is Pushing "Driver-Monitoring Cameras" - Here's Why...

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

From July of this year, every vehicle registered in the European Union will be required to have driver-monitoring cameras in place. That’s not every new car manufactured, but every car registered.

The “Advanced Driver Distraction Warning” (ADDW) cameras are designed to monitor driver behaviour for signs of potential distraction, and then set off a warning if those signs are detected.

It was first announced in 2024 as part of the EU’s “Vision Zero” plan to eliminate car-related deaths by 2050.

But it’s not really about that.

It’s never about what they say it’s about.

Here’s where this goes…

Firstly, kiss successful insurance claims goodbye.

Any accident will be blamed on “sub-optimal driver performance”, and that time you checked your phone while stopped at a light, or your hands moved briefly from the 10-and-2 or your eyeline wasn’t correctly picked up by the mirror sensor, will be used to blame your fender-bender on you.

This will create a change in accident reporting statistics, spiking “driver error” as the cause for anything and everything that goes wrong on the road.

This, in turn, will kick off a big “people drive dangerously” propaganda push.

Headlines like “ADDW data harvesting has shown up 80% of us might be driving more recklessly than we think”, or “most veteran drivers slip in to bad habits, reports show” will appear.

Then comes the new legislation to act on this totally fabricated problem.

What is it? It’s re-certification.

That’s not speculation; it already happened. Under new EU rules, passed just a few months ago, every driver has to be re-certified and issued a new driver’s license after 15 years. It would be the smallest of tweaks to add “or after Y number of distraction warnings are recorded” to that legislation.

The new driver’s licenses will be digital, with biometrics included. It’s possible new cars will be undrivable without a scan of your biometric license.

Your car’s data will be uploaded to a database, of course. That’s going to happen.

…in fact, it already is.

It’s not at all far-fetched to imagine your driver monitoring data getting scanned for errors by an AI, and any detected errors putting points on your license. If you go over a certain number of points, your ability to drive is taken away…pending recertification.

You can appeal, and drive while the appeal takes place. But the appeal fee will be greater than the recertification fee, and if you lose, you have to pay extra legal costs, and you’re subject to an extended driving ban.

This will be covered in the press as a universally Good Thing.

Headlines will celebrate the (almost entirely fictional) decrease in traffic fatalities, whilst baselessly claiming that the smaller number of private vehicles on the road has “improved pollution levels in the inner cities”.

An opinion piece from an anonymous “former driver” will appear in the Guardian, “I lost my driver’s license, and it’s the best thing that ever happened to me”.

It will talk up how much money they’re saving on petrol and road tax, and how much fitter they get walking and cycling everywhere and how they know their neighbours so well now.

Not forgetting all sorts of cozy anecdotes about the charming characters you meet and life-affirming tableaux you witness using public transport.

Meanwhile, American “journalists” will wax poetic about the EU’s “forward-thinking system”, and the UK press and punditry will talk of “lagging behind the EU”, and blame every road accident on Brexit.

Some academics will publish a paper finding that “private car ownership has decreased under EU driver monitoring regulations”, and this “unintended upside” will be widely applauded.

Cue Buzzfeed: “New license rules have taken cars off the road, and it’s a good thing.”

And Vox: “The EU’s driver’s license law has given us a glimpse of what a car-less future could look like, and it’s beautiful”.

While all this is going on, there will be persistent white noise on the safety of “robot drivers” vs human drivers, talking up automatic driving software in Chinese electric cars and so on.

Public transport will be increasingly automated too – whether really automated, or just remotely driven doesn’t matter. The point will be to remove images of people driving from the public sphere.

The important part is you don’t get to decide where you’re going or how you’re getting there.

The end goal will be to inculcate a generally anti-car atmosphere, where even knowing how to drive will be considered somewhat old-fashioned.

Middle-class parents will boast to social media echo chambers that “I never wanted my Jacinda to learn!”, and receive bot-fueled applause as a reward. Implausible self-congratulatory anecdotes detailing how “My eight-year-old just told me he doesn’t want to drive because it’s bad for the planet! Children are so wise!” will go viral.

Because the easiest way to trap people is to make freedom uncool.

That might seem like a lot of speculation based on a little information, and in some ways it is, but pattern recognition is important. It’s much easier to put out a fire that hasn’t started yet, and we know they want to burn it all down.

We know they want to end private vehicle ownership; they have repeatedly said so.

Well, this is how they do that. A little at a time, creating atmospheres and environments. Seemingly arbitrary rules and regulations with “unforeseen consequences”. That’s how they work now, they come at us sideways with slow-developing long-cons, because they can’t afford to work in straight lines, not since Covid.

Stuff like this might seem a small – a throwaway issue vs war or the price of oil – but the powers-that-shouldn’t-be have an eye on the far horizon when they take small steps, and we should pay attention to where they want to take us.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 02:00

BlackRock Private Credit Fund Cuts Asset Values By 5%, As Golub Gates After 8.5% Redemptions

Just another day in private credit paradise... er, hell. 

One day after Gundlach repeated his warning that the private credit crisis will end in tears for bagholders, Blackrock cut the value of its publicly-traded private credit fund by about 5%, as it - like most of its peers - struggled under the weight of troubled loans, markdowns and lower returns.

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp., a publicly traded middle-market lending fund, said markdowns totaled $35 million in the quarter ended March 31, according to a statement on Thursday. Amusingly, and in hopes of redirecting attention, the $1.5 billion fund highlighted “improving credit quality,” and said it invested more in senior debt and strengthened its balance sheet. The fund said its dividend, which was cut to 17 cents a share last quarter, would remain flat.

The fund has been a challenge for BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with about $14 trillion in assets, which is expanding aggressively into private credit. BlackRock acquired specialist manager HPS Investment Partners last year for about $12 billion, aiming to significantly expand its existing capabilities and legacy funds, including TCPC.

The TCPC fund said in January that it cut the net asset value of its assets by 19%, which sent shares tumbling. The fund has struggled in part due to exposure to e-commerce aggregators - companies that buy and manage Amazon.com Inc. sellers - as well as troubled home improvement company Renovo Home Partners, which filed for bankruptcy. Back in March, we reported that Blackrock slashed the value of one of its private loans from par to 0 in just months, Infinite Commerce Holdings, sparking a selloff in the shares as the market was stunned by how quickly a loan from the world's most iconic asset manager can go from par to 0 in just days.

“While we have made meaningful progress, we recognize there is more work to do and we remain focused on disciplined execution,” Chief Executive Officer Phil Tseng said on a call with analysts.

Loans on non-accrual status - typically meaning borrowers have missed their debt payments - declined to 7.6% on a cost basis, compared with 9.7% in the prior quarter. That's because one of its portfolio loans was sold, and two were restructured. Investments in 13 portfolio companies were on non-accrual status.

Tseng said the largest driver of the markdowns was an investment in Job and Talent, a staffing and recruitment company that suffered from weak performance in the quarter. Almost a third of the markdowns came from software-related investments, he said.

Lenders in the $1.8 trillion private credit market have been under scrutiny as advancements in artificial intelligence threaten to upend their bets on software, an industry that makes up a significant portion of lenders’ portfolios. 

Elsewhere, the last big private credit fund we were waiting to report its redemption gates, did just that: Golub Capital announced it was capping withdrawals from its private credit fund after investors sought to pull 8.5% of shares, the latest instance of a money manager restricting outflows amid a wave of redemption requests.

Golub Capital Private Credit Fund, or GCRED, plans to enforce the quarterly withdrawal limit of 5% of common shares outstanding, according to a letter to shareholders on Thursday. The roughly $9.9 billion fund intends to fulfill repurchase requests for 8,891,200 shares.

The credit manager told investors that the redemption requests “were concentrated in a small subset representing approximately 5% of GCRED’s more than 12,000 shareholders.” Golub also cited roughly 14 million in new share subscriptions this year through the end of April. 

GCRED has a liquidity cushion of approximately $4.1 billion and its portfolio consists of nearly $10 billion in total investments at fair value, the firm said. As of the end of the first quarter, less than 0.1% of GCRED’s investment portfolio was on non-accrual status. 

None of that mattered in the, and Golub has now joined every single one of its BDC peers in gating its investors. The silver lining, unlike such disasters as the two big Blue Owl BDCs (OTIC and OCIC), which saw investors try to pull 41% and 22% of their capital respectively - and were obviously gated - Golub's tally was only 8.5%, which in this age where double digit redemptions requests are the normal, is downright respectable.

 

 

d

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 00:08

Court Strikes Down Trump's Replacement Tariffs; A Minor, Temporary Setback, With Sec 301 Tariffs Coming

After the close on Thursday, the Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled to invalidate Trump's latest set of universal 10% tariff imposed two months ago under Sec. 122. The administration will quickly appeal this decision before it takes effect May 12. If the case follows the same pattern as the challenge to the IEEPA tariffs last year, a higher court might soon stay this ruling and leave the tariffs in place pending a longer review.  

As the tariffs are due to expire July 24, even if the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) eventually rules against these tariffs, there is a good chance a full judicial review will take long enough that the tariffs will remain in effect until the administration replaces them with new tariffs under Sec. 301 (unfair trade practices) and Sec. 232 (national security).

As a reminder, Section 122 tariffs were always a stopgap: by statute, they can only be in place for 150 days, so they’ll expire on July 24, 2026. Investigations by the US Trade Representative under Section 301 are widely expected to wrap up before then, clearing the way for permanent replacement tariffs.

That said, if the ruling survives appeal, the government will likely have to refund unlawfully collected duties, adding to the nearly $170 billion already owed as a result of the Feb. 20 decision.

Key Points: 

1. The CIT ruling was a split decision, with two Democratic-appointed judges granting summary judgment against the administration’s position and one Republican-appointed judge dissenting, favoring a full review of the case instead. This is in contrast to the CIT’s earlier ruling last year, in which a panel of one Democratic- and two Republican-appointed judges unanimously granted summary judgment against the IEEPA tariffs. 

2. The CIT ruling gives the administration 5 days to rescind the tariffs, and requires that importers be paid refunds plus interest. We expect the administration to immediately appeal the ruling to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC), as it did following the CIT’s IEEPA ruling. In that instance, the CAFC stayed the CIT ruling within a day, leaving the tariffs in effect, and then took 3 months to rule on the case. That ruling was then appealed to SCOTUS, which took another 6 months to rule. As the Sec. 122 tariffs expire July 24 and cannot be extended without an act of Congress, an eventual SCOTUS ruling against these tariffs looks unlikely to come before expiration. That said, if courts ultimately rule against the use of Sec. 122 to impose these tariffs after they have expired, importers could collect refunds beyond IEEPA refunds they will start to receive in coming days.

3. The Sec. 122 tariffs are worth slightly more than 4% on the effective tariff rate (this is lower than the 10% headline rate due to exemptions for products and most imports from Canada and Mexico), and account for slightly less than half of the new tariffs since the start of 2025 that remain in effect. They are likely generating customs duty collections of around $11-12bn per month (not annualized), or around $55-60bn total if they remain in effect for the full 5 months. 

4. Regardless of how courts ultimately decide this case, the ruling should have no bearing on the administration’s longer-term ability to impose tariffs under Sec. 232 (national security) or Sec. 301 (unfair trade practices), which the White House has signaled will replace the Sec. 122 tariffs. The authority to impose tariffs under those laws is well-tested, unlike the IEEPA and Sec. 122 tariffs, and customs duties have been collected continuously under both authorities since the first Trump administration. 

5. The US Trade Representative is currently conducting investigations under the Section 301 trade enforcement authority. These investigations are widely seen as setting the stage for permanent replacement levies that will largely replicate the tariff rates in place before the Feb. 20 court ruling.

6. The court limited relief to three plaintiffs representing a small fraction of total US imports. Other importers may now bring suit, but we expect the administration to quickly appeal and seek a stay of the ruling. The split decision invalidating the tariffs is relatively narrow.

• If the ruling stands, relief is limited to the importers who brought suit — two private firms and Washington State. The court dismissed claims from other non-importer parties for lack of standing. Additional importers could — and likely will — seek relief with their own lawsuits.
• The court also sidestepped the broader question of whether the US currently faces a “fundamental international payments problem”, the authorized purpose of Section 122. Instead, it found the administration’s stated justification — trade and current account deficits — was not an appropriate stand-in.
   

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 23:31

Saudi Arabia's $1Tn Wealth Fund Opens Shanghai Office As China Ties Deepen

Via The Cradle

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) opened a second office in mainland China earlier this year, establishing a Shanghai branch to expand dealmaking and attract more Chinese investment into the kingdom, Bloomberg reports.

The office was registered last year, falls under PIF’s Beijing branch, and is led by Lily Cong, a former chief representative of Fidelity International in China’s capital.

Source: Britannica 

The Shanghai outpost was reportedly created to strengthen the $1 trillion fund’s ability to pursue outbound deals in China, while officials are also seeking to bring more Chinese companies into Saudi Arabia.

This move strengthens Riyadh’s investment relationship with Beijing, while the US continues to be a major market for the kingdom. The Shanghai office expands PIF’s global presence, which already features offices in New York, London, Hong Kong, and Paris. 

Saudi Arabia and China already maintain strategic and financial links across sectors, including energy and finance, while other Gulf wealth funds are also looking to expand their exposure to China.

Abu Dhabi is also considering placing Chinese assets held by two of its wealth funds into a new entity, according to earlier reports, a move that could pave the way for a broader shift in its investment strategy.

The Gulf investment push comes amid major shifts in West Asian markets following the US war on Iran, triggering regional disruptions that have put pressure on Gulf economies and accelerated moves away from dollar-dominated energy trade.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states have deepened yuan-based financial links with China, while disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have further exposed the fragility of the “petrodollar order”.

According to a report by Fortune, Riyadh did not formally renew its 2024 commitment to price oil exclusively in US dollars, a year after signing a $7 billion currency swap agreement with Beijing. 

The Saudi central bank is also a key participant in the mBridge digital payment platform, which enables direct currency exchanges via blockchain technology.

Economists cited by Fortune say the shift reflects China's growing weight in Saudi trade, as Beijing has displaced the US as the kingdom’s largest oil customer. 

"The economic gravity pointed toward yuan while the currency arrangement pointed toward dollars," EBC Financial Group analyst Michael Harris wrote. 

Saudi Arabia still conducts most deals in US dollars, but expanding financial ties with Beijing signal a broader effort to diversify trade and investment channels as China positions the yuan as a possible alternative in global energy markets.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 22:35

Chief Justice Roberts Says US Supreme Court Is Not Political

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Chief Justice John Roberts said on May 6 that U.S. Supreme Court justices are not “political actors.”

Roberts’s comments came at a conference in Hershey, Pennsylvania, attended by judges and attorneys from the jurisdictions covered by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. That circuit encompasses Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Although some of the high court’s decisions may be unpopular, they are based exclusively on the law, he said at the gathering.

“I think, at a very basic level, people think we’re making policy decisions, we’re saying we think this is how things should be, as opposed to what the law provides,” said the jurist, who was appointed by President George W. Bush in 2005.

“I think they view us as purely political actors, which I don’t think is an accurate understanding of what we do.”

Roberts’s speech came at a time when public confidence in the Supreme Court is at a low ebb, and a week after the court issued a ruling that changed how the federal Voting Rights Act is interpreted.

Roberts was part of the court’s majority on April 29 when it ruled 6–3 in Louisiana v. Callais that race may only be a minor factor in redistricting rationales, and may not be the predominant, overriding reason for how congressional district lines are drawn.

The justices struck down a federal district judge’s decision that created a second black-majority congressional district in Louisiana. The judge had ruled the electoral district was needed to comply with anti-discrimination provisions of the Voting Rights Act.

The ruling has spurred a new round of mid-decade redistricting efforts, largely in Republican-dominated state legislatures around the country.

In the past few years, the Supreme Court has also issued rulings striking down the constitutional right to abortion, strengthening gun rights, weakening the powers of federal agencies, and getting rid of affirmative action in higher education admissions.

Roberts avoided mentioning any specific rulings in his presentation, but stressed that the court is “simply not part of the political process.”

He said the court’s formal, written opinions are based on the Constitution.

“One thing we have to do is make decisions that are unpopular,” Roberts said.

The chief justice said criticism should be aimed at rulings, instead of individuals in the form of personal attacks.

He denounced the rhetorical targeting of lower court judges.

“That’s not appropriate, and it can lead to very serious problems,” Roberts said.

Weeks ago, Roberts said that personal criticism of federal judges imperils the judiciary.

Although criticism of judicial opinions “comes with the territory” and can be healthy, “personally directed hostility is dangerous and it’s got to stop,” he told an audience at Rice University in Houston, Texas, on March 17.

As the chief justice of the United States, Roberts presides over Supreme Court oral arguments and oversees the entire federal judiciary.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 21:45

Uber Says AI Is Writing More Code and Slowing Hiring Growth

Uber Technologies, Inc. is expanding its use of AI tools and using some of those efficiency gains to slow the pace of hiring, according to Business Insider.

Speaking on the company’s first quarter earnings call, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said autonomous coding agents now account for about 10% of Uber’s code updates. Engineers still review that output before it is committed to internal repositories, but he said the shift offers an early glimpse of how AI can accelerate software development.

Business Insider writes that Uber has long relied on machine learning for customer facing functions such as setting ride prices and pairing drivers with riders. Now the company is rolling out similar tools across internal teams. “We’re seeing uptake of these tools, whether it’s our legal team or marketing team or developers,” Khosrowshahi said. “We think it’s creating kind of employees with superpowers.”

That broader adoption is influencing hiring plans. CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy said executives did not fully anticipate how quickly AI tools would improve productivity when they mapped out their 2026 budget.

He said on the call, per Goldman: “One last comment on AI. I would say, candidly, when we set up budgets for 2026 in November, we underestimated the amount of impact the AI tools could have,” he said. After a new wave of models arrived in December, Uber “re-upped our investment here,” while also reducing “incremental headcount growth.”

The spending ramp has been significant. Last month, CTO Praveen Neppalli Naga said Uber had already used its entire 2026 budget for Anthropic’s Claude Code, underscoring how quickly demand for AI tools is growing inside the company.

Khosrowshahi said the strategy makes sense if those tools continue improving employee output. “If every person at this company can increase their throughput by 20%, 30%, 50%, 100%, then I think metering headcount growth and leaning in on AI investment is going to be well worth it,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 21:20

'Muslim-Only' Water Park Event Canceled By Texas City

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Texas city that had a Muslim-only celebration scheduled at a city-owned water park has said that the event would be canceled.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks to the media at the Texas Capitol in Austin, Texas, on Aug. 22, 2025. Eric Gay/AP Photo

“After further review and in the best interest of the City of Grand Prairie, the June 1 Eid event at Epic Waters Indoor Waterpark has been canceled. No additional comment will be made at this time,” said Eric Alvarez, spokesman for the city of Grand Prairie.

Aminah Knight, the organizer of the event, said she was “deeply disappointed” by the event being canceled and had only been informed by a park manager.

“What began as a private event for the Muslim community to celebrate Eid in a joyful and modest environment became something much bigger than I ever imagined,” she said in a text message to The Epoch Times. “The flyer was originally shared within private community spaces, but it was later circulated more broadly by people who were not interested in attending, but rather in creating division and controversy.”

Knight said she is going to turn what she called a “painful experience” into “something beautiful” and will host an interfaith event called “The Great American Cookout” on July 4. She said the event would be a place “where people from different backgrounds can come together, connect, and truly get to know one another as Americans.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott threatened to pull $530,000 in state funding if the city of Grand Prairie allowed the celebration to go on.

The event was to celebrate Eid al-Adha, an annual Islamic celebration, and was promoted as being for only Muslims. While the city of Grand Prairie owns the water park, a private third-party contractor runs it.

“A city-owned water park in Grand Prairie openly advertised a ‘MUSLIMS ONLY’ event—closed to the general public,” Abbott posted on X on Wednesday. “That’s religious discrimination. It’s unconstitutional. I signed HB 4211 into law—banning Muslim only no-go zones in Texas. The City must cancel the event and commit to never allowing something like it again by May 11th, or lose $530,000 in state grants. Let this be a lesson to local officials: Facilities funded by ALL taxpayers are not just for a subset of Texans.”

The city, prior to the cancellation, posted a message on its website.

“The City of Grand Prairie is aware of concerns that have been expressed about an upcoming private event at Epic Waters,” the statement reads. “The City has been in contact with the Epic Waters management team to ensure all policies and procedures have been followed. Epic Waters is owned by the City and managed by a third-party operator. Like other City-owned facilities, it is available for rental by individuals and organizations.”

Alvarez said earlier Wednesday in an email to The Epoch Times that the city reached out to Abbott’s office and was in discussions with the state government regarding the matter.

The third-party contractor did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Knight posted on the event’s website, “So if you are a friend of a different faith who wants to celebrate the Eid holiday with us and adhere to the modest dress code ... this event is FOR YOU TOO!”

Knight continued: “DFW Epic Eid is a privately organized and privately funded event held through a standard rental of Epic Waters, just like many other private gatherings hosted at the park. This event was created to celebrate Eid al-Adha, one of the most important holidays in Islam, which commemorates faith, devotion, and gratitude. … In response to feedback, we have updated our materials to clearly reflect that this is a modest dress-only event, centered around a respectful and family-friendly environment.”

Mitch Little, a Republican Texas state representative, said in a video posted on Facebook that he learned the “Muslim-only” event had been held two previous times.

“I think this is a very serious civil rights violation that is going on here,” Little said in the video. “If you are making a public accommodation, whether it is a restaurant or a hotel or an entertainment venue like Epic Waters, you’re not permitted to exclude people on the basis of race, religion, etc. I think people are locally shocked at what is going on here.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 18:25

"Existential": Israel Quadruples Foreign-Influence Budget To Massive $730M

With the ranks of its foreign sympathizers plummeting all around the world and all across the political spectrum, the State of Israel is quadrupling its budget for so-called "public diplomacy," bringing its 2026 spending on foreign influence campaigns to a massive $730 million.

With the country's growing unpopularity threatening US financial, military and diplomatic support, Israel's foreign minister has said an intensified effort to mold global opinion is an "existential issue." Both inside and outside of Israel, the country's public diplomacy effort is also referred to by its Hebrew name: hasbara. Even before the 2026 ramp-up in spending, Israel's spending on hasbara was already striking. 

Recent disclosures about 2025 hasbara spending shed some light on how Israel goes about shaping public opinion. Per the Jerusalem Post, that year's outlays included a $50 million social media ad campaign carried out on Google, YouTube, X and Outbrain. Another $40 million covered the hosting of foreign delegations. “We flew a lot of delegations to the country - whether it’s pastors, whether it’s politicians, universities,” Israeli Consul General Israel Bachar told the Jerusalem Post. “Everyone who returns from the country understands better and is more supportive. But you have to fly out a lot of people.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly ended the workweek, sending the House into early recess to avoid a vote on releasing more Jeffrey Epstein documents.

Members of Congress then packed their bags and flew to Israel. pic.twitter.com/QMV3TvAgaK

— FlyingBeagle "Abu Alya" (@FlyingBeagle_) August 6, 2025

“We must as a country invest much, much more,” Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar argued in December. “It should be like investing in jets, bombs and missile interceptors. In the face of what’s arrayed against us and what’s invested against us, it’s far from enough. This is an existential issue.”

An April Pew Research survey found that 60% of American adults now view Israel unfavorably -- that's up 18 points from 2022. Underscoring the mammoth challenge faced by Israel's hasbarists, the proportion of Americans who have a very unfavorable view of Israel now stands at 28% -- triple what it was in 2022. Most alarming for Israel is the cratering of support among Republicans, with 57% of those under 50 now viewing Israel unfavorably.  

The erosion of US support has taken place over a span that has included Israel's stunningly-destructive rampage across Gaza in response to the Oct 7 2023 Hamas invasion of Israel, and this year's US-Israeli war on Iran which has caused fuel prices to rocket higher while threatening a global economic catastrophe. 

The money they steal from you they spend on lying to you. https://t.co/YUwfEEqhFm

— Scott Horton (@scotthortonshow) May 5, 2026

Israel's weakened position in US politics is manifesting in various ways. Candidates in Democratic primaries are now attacking opponents who've taken money from the pro-Israel lobby, which has prompted those forces to effectively "launder" their contributions through intermediary organizations. This week, 30 House Democrats co-signed a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, demanding that the US government finally acknowledge the existence of Israel's nuclear arsenal -- ending decades of bipartisan obfuscation. Votes in Congress that follow the Israel lobby's recommendations used to be enormously lopsided on Israel's side, but are now decided by just a handful of votes -- with the lobby still prevailing for now.   

In October, westerners' wariness of Israeli hasbara was heightened by Responsible Statecraft's revelation that Israel was paying social-media influencers something like $7,000 per pro-Israel post that they made. 

The best 'conservative' influencers Israel can buy?

Emily Austin participated in the Epstein binders hoax, and joined Netanyahu's recent influencers meeting

Xavaier DuRousseau attended the secret Hamptons influencer summit with Bill Ackman, then junketed off to Israel pic.twitter.com/JLoGk3Jzfd

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 28, 2025

Some hasbara efforts have been carried out in a purposely deceptive fashion. For example, an undercover Al Jazeera documentary captured American Jordan Schachtel, who now publishes The Dossier on Substack, describing his involvement in a social media campaign in which Israeli propagandists ran Facebook pages that ostensibly cover topics far from geopolitics -- such as the environment or feminism -- for the sole purpose of periodically sprinkling the feed with pro-Israel content. "It’s a secretive thing, because we don’t want people to know that these side projects are associated with The Israel Project," Schachtel was caught saying on hidden camera.

Imagine what they'll be cooking up with three-quarters of a billion dollars. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 18:00

The Maps Are Moving: How A Supreme Court Ruling Turned The 2026 House Race Into A Republican Offensive

A few short weeks ago House Democrats were riding high. They had spent tens of millions to win a Virginia referendum that promised up to four new seats. President Trump was struggling in the polls. The path to a House majority looked plausible.

Yet in the span of roughly two weeks, a combination of aggressive Republican redistricting and a pivotal Supreme Court decision has dramatically altered the battlefield. What was once a Democratic advantage has become a steep uphill climb. Republicans are now positioned to gain as many as 10 to 14 seats through map changes alone - enough to transform a narrow 217–212 majority into something much more durable.

Supreme Spark

The turning point was the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. The decision effectively curtailed the use of race in drawing congressional districts under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. For Democrats, who had long relied on VRA protections to create majority-minority districts in the South, the ruling was a gut punch. For Republicans, it was an opening.

Southern states with Republican trifectas moved with remarkable speed. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a map that could eliminate four Democratic seats. Alabama called a special session to redraw its map with the goal of flipping two Democratic districts and giving the GOP all seven seats. Tennessee targeted the lone Democratic stronghold in Memphis. Louisiana, South Carolina, and even Mississippi began exploring ways to eliminate their remaining Democratic representatives.

Republican Redistricting Surge

Here’s a clear breakdown of the Republican-led redistricting efforts and their potential impact:

Here's the updated version with black text in the header (since the black background is being locked out):

State Current GOP Seats Potential Change Status / Notes Florida 20 of 28 +4 Map signed by Gov. DeSantis. Multiple lawsuits pending. Texas 24 of 37 +5 New map approved by Supreme Court. Most aggressive early move. Alabama 5 of 7 +2 (aiming for 7–0) Special session called. Targeting Reps. Figures and possibly Sewell. Tennessee 8 of 9 +1 (targeting Rep. Steve Cohen) Special session underway. Memphis seat in crosshairs. Louisiana 4 of 6 +2 (aiming for 6–0) Redrawing after SCOTUS ruling. Primary delayed. South Carolina 6 of 7 +1 (targeting Rep. Jim Clyburn) Considering new map to eliminate Clyburn’s deep-blue seat. North Carolina 7 of 14 +1 New map approved; flips one Democratic seat. Mississippi 3 of 4 +1 (targeting Rep. Bennie Thompson) Gov. Reeves considering it — most likely for 2028.

Total Potential Republican Gains: 10–14 seats

Democrats have tried to mount a counteroffensive in states where they still hold power, but their efforts have been more limited and face greater legal headwinds. In California, voters approved Proposition 50 last year, a Democratic-drawn map designed to net the party five additional seats - though the map is now under legal challenge following the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision. Virginia appeared to deliver one of Democrats’ biggest victories when voters approved a redistricting referendum on April 21 that could give the party as many as four new seats - potentially 10 of the state’s 11 districts. However, that victory is now in serious jeopardy after a Virginia judge ruled the referendum invalid just one day later, nullifying the results. Efforts in New York to flip the state’s lone Republican seat were blocked by the Supreme Court, while proposed maps in Maryland and Illinois have either been rejected by Democratic lawmakers or paused over legal concerns. Utah remains a rare bright spot for Democrats, where a court-imposed map could add one seat. Overall, Democratic gains have proven far more fragile and uncertain than the aggressive Republican advances in the South.

Democratic Counter-Moves

Democrats have not been passive. They’ve pursued their own aggressive strategies where they hold power:

State Current Dem Seats Potential Change Status / Notes California 13 of 52 +5 Proposition 50 passed by voters. Now facing lawsuits after SCOTUS ruling. Virginia 6 of 11 +4 (could reach 10 of 11) Voter-approved referendum. Major uncertainty — Virginia Supreme Court may strike it down. Utah 1 of 4 +1 Court rejected GOP map and imposed a new one drawn by a centrist group. New York 15 of 26 Limited / blocked Attempt to flip Staten Island’s GOP seat blocked by SCOTUS. Now pushing to amend state constitution. Maryland 7 of 8 None Gov. Moore’s map rejected by Democratic legislature over legal concerns. Illinois 14 of 17 None (paused) Proposed race-based amendment paused after SCOTUS decision. Bottom Line

Republicans currently hold a clear structural advantage, especially across the South, where they control the process in multiple states, while Democratic gains are more limited and face greater legal uncertainty (particularly in Virginia and California). Virginia remains the single biggest near-term variable for Democrats. If the court overturns the referendum, their path to a House majority becomes significantly harder.

A potential 10-to-14 seat Republican gain would be significant. In a chamber this closely divided, it could mean the difference between a fragile majority and comfortable control heading into 2028.

Yet, the devil is in the details (including election-related malarkey). Even the most skillfully drawn maps can be overwhelmed by national political tides. If the economy weakens, if President Trump’s approval ratings remain low, or if a major scandal erupts, some of these newly Republican-leaning districts could still flip. Conversely, a strong Republican environment would amplify the advantages of these new maps.

So for now, the momentum belongs to Republicans, but the situation remains fluid. Multiple maps face lawsuits, Virginia’s fate is uncertain, and candidate recruitment and national conditions could still reshape the battlefield.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 17:20