Zero Hedge

Swamp Wins: Senate Approves $1.2 Trillion Spending Bill, Narrowly Averting Gov't Shutdown 

Swamp Wins: Senate Approves $1.2 Trillion Spending Bill, Narrowly Averting Gov't Shutdown 

A partial US government shutdown was averted in the wee hours of Saturday morning as the Senate approved a $1.2 trillion spending package. The measure will now go to President Biden's desk later today.

The passage of the 1,012-page bill (did any lawmakers actually read the whole thing?) in a 74 to 24 vote concludes several months of drama on Capitol Hill centered around Republicans demanding deeper spending cuts as the federal government spends like drunken sailors, with the national debt recently skyrocketing to over $34.578 trillion.

The legislation provides 75% of the federal government funding for the coming six months. It includes measures to increase military salaries, eliminate funding to the United Nations agency supporting Palestinian refugees, and enhance security along the southern border. 

The bill passed shortly after the 12:01 a.m. deadline, indicating that some federal funding expired, but the White House budget office said it would not declare a shutdown.

On Friday, the House passed the pork-filled bill by a vote of 286-134, with 112 Republicans and 22 Democrats against. The bipartisan deal was the result of an agreement between the president, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-NY). 

"It's been a long day, a long week, a very long few months, but tonight we have funded the government," said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., NY). 

Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, wrote in a statement, "We have finally passed all twelve bills to fund the government—and I'm proud to be sending a $1 billion increase in funding for child care and early learning programs to President Biden's desk." 

The Senate Appropriations Committee highlighted what it believes are the top things in the $1.2 trillion funding package: 

  • Lowers child care costs for families and strengthens Head Start with a new $1 billion investment to help families in every zip code afford child care and help ensure Head Start can continue serving hundreds of thousands of kids each year.

  • Protects workers' rights and helps ensure they get the paychecks they have earned by protecting funding for essential worker protection agencies and the National Labor Relations Board.

  • Invests in students at every stage of their education and sustains essential investments in our nation's public schools by delivering resources for our public K-12 schools, Pell Grants, and more—and rejecting devastating cuts that would have forced teachers out of our nation's K-12 classrooms.

  • Keeps our country safe and supports our servicemembers and military families with essential investments in our national defense and important additional support for those who serve our country in uniform.

  • Builds on our historic economic recovery and supports small businesses.

  • Supports people's health, strengthens the health care workforce, and guards against public health threats, rejecting dangerous cuts and sustaining all manner of investments in patients' health.

  • Propels cutting-edge biomedical research to discover and create new treatments and cures that save lives and give people more time with their loved ones.

  • Invests in mental health care and research and strengthens the 988 lifeline—sustaining and building upon key investments made in recent years.

  • Protects consumers and holds fraudsters and rich tax cheats accountable to help even the playing field and keep growing our economy from the middle out.

  • Combats the flow of fentanyl, strengthens our detection and enforcement capabilities, and invests in substance use disorder treatment and prevention to address the opioid crisis that continues to devastate communities.

  • Delivers critical resources to help meet operational needs at our southern border.

  • Maintains America's global leadership and upholds our commitments to our allies and partners to promote our own national security and strengthen our competitiveness.

  • Supports our Afghan allies by authorizing an additional 12,000 Special Immigrant Visas (SIVs) for Afghans who assisted the US government during the war in Afghanistan.

  • Increases base funding for humanitarian assistance to support the United States' efforts to provide emergency food, shelter, water, and basic services to populations caught in conflict and crises across the globe.

Meanwhile, Rep. Chip Roy (R., TX). said the swamp wins again: "We have a thousand-page bill of $1.2 trillion dollars—a bill filled with all manners of spending priorities that are at odds with the American people. That's what we have in front of us."

"It's a sad, disappointing day. Republicans promised to spend less and secure the border," said Rep. Warren Davidson (R., OH), adding, "This bill does neither."

Reckless swamp spending is raising the national debt by $1 trillion every 100 days and pushing America even closer to financial ruin.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/23/2024 - 08:45

VDH: From Russian Collusion To "Bloodbath" - A Decade Of Toxic Hysteria

VDH: From Russian Collusion To "Bloodbath" - A Decade Of Toxic Hysteria

Via Victor David Hanson,

Ever since late June 2015—following Donald Trump’s announcement that he was running for president, and his voicing of controversial agendas (on tariffs, China, illegal immigration, foreign policy, NATO, etc.)—leftwing toxic hysteria has been the norm.

In the last ten years, we’ve witnessed the Russian collusion hoax, calls from military officers and analysts for extra-legal interventions and coups, the Alfa ping hoax, the drink bleach hoax, the “suckers” D-Day hoax, the celebrities’ contest about the best way to decapitate, stab, blow up, shoot, or incinerate Trump, the 2016 leftwing postelection effort to turn state electors into “faithless” apostates to elect Hillary, the nutty Mark Milley call to his Chinese counterpart, the Antifa/BLM riotous months of 2020 and effort to storm the White House grounds, the two first-term impeachments, the laptop “Russian disinformation” hoax, the pee accusation, the “51 intelligence authorities” ruse, the FBI hiring of Twitter censors to suppress unwanted news, the Senate trial of a private citizen, the January 6 “insurrection” where “five police officers were killed” lie, the farcical two Republican members of the Jan 6 committee, the attempt to remove Trump from state ballots, the insane E. Jean Carroll suit, the Letitia James “find me the man, and I’ll find you the crime” writ, the monstrous $355 million fine growing daily to $450, the Alvin Bragg bootstrapping of an inert federal suit, the Fani Willis/Nathan Wade circus, the Jack Smith antithesis to Robert Hur’s twin investigation, the effort to bankrupt the Republican nominee, and of course the constant calls to pack the court (when the Left lost the majority), to end the filibuster (when Democrats control the Senate), to add two new states and four new senators (provided they are DC and Puerto Rico) and to end the Electoral College (once the Left lost the surety of the reliable blue wall).

What is the effect of all this decade-long civil strife on the 2024 voter?

There are two knowns and two unknowns from this unprecedented effort to destroy rather than defeat at the polls Donald J. Trump.

  • First, we now know that the more they have tried to destroy Trump through media lies and distortions, lawfare, and extra-legal means, the greater his resiliency and popularity.

  • Two, we also realize that the greater the anti-Trump hysteria, venom, and furor on the Left, the more leftists melt down and project their own paranoias onto Trump.

They think something like: “If we were Trump, and we were smeared with the stuff we are dishing out, we know what we do to our tormentors when we got power. So naturally Trump will do to us what we would to us in his place.”

Their projection then turns into our now daily unhinged screams that Trump will “take revenge” and “demand retribution”, ensure a “bloodbath”, and “end democracy”—and “therefore we have to double down to employ even more extra-legal means to destroy him”.

Of the unknowns, we are somewhat unsure about the cumulative effect of this historic effort to warp the electoral system to destroy a candidate, and in at least two regards.

One, as the Left ramps up its hatred and frenzy over the next seven months before the election (and they surely will), what will be effect on Independents, swing voters, and the undecided? Will they grow incensed at the damage the Left is doing to the country and react by supporting Trump all the more?

Or, alternatively, will they finally curl up, fetal-like, with  hands over ears, and simply whimper and wish for someone to make all this conundrum go away—and along with it the disrupter Trump, who, however much the victim, still somehow is responsible for the insane reaction he elicits from the left?

As far as the second unknown in the upcoming months, could  or would Trump as the Happy Warrior better finesse the vitriol to his own advantage by joking about his tormentors’ insanity, using Reaganesque humor to ridicule his critics, or simply shrug, stick to business, ignore the madness, and press on? Can he not unite the country by rising above the tit-for-tat taunts and put-downs?

That is, should he not avoid his gratuitous slights (often against fellow Republicans like DeSantis and Haley), curb silly stuff like “birdbrain” and the usual social media ridicule?

Or does it even matter at this late date—given the Left will distort anything Trump says anyway—as we just witnessed with the “bloodbath” psychodrama, and the laughable spin to suggest Trump was calling for insurrection rather than the damage Biden will do to the automotive industry?

Are we reaching a point, then, where it does not matter how carefully Trump speaks and how ecumenical he might sound, given whatever he says or does will still be distorted given the existential hatred for who he is, what he represents, and what his agendas might portend?

Add up what we know and the things we know we don’t know, and it is going to be a wild, dangerous next seven months in which we are going to witness things from the Left never seen before in this country.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 19:45

Russia & China Strike Shipping Deal With Houthis To Ensure Safe Vessel Transits, Report Says 

Russia & China Strike Shipping Deal With Houthis To Ensure Safe Vessel Transits, Report Says 

According to Bloomberg's sources, Russia and China have sealed a deal with Iran-backed Houthis to allow their commercial vessels to transit the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden without fear of drone and or missile attacks. 

One of the sources said China and Russia reached a deal with diplomats in Oman with Mohammed Abdel Salam, one of the Houthis' top political leaders. They said the safe passage of vessels is in exchange for the Houthis' political support at the United Nations Security Council. 

Bloomberg noted, "It's not entirely clear how that support would be manifested, but it could include blocking more resolutions against the group." 

Since November, Houthi rebels have repeatedly attacked vessels in the Red Sea. Rebels assert that their attacks are aimed only at ships connected to Israel, demonstrating their support for the Palestinians amid the ongoing Gaza conflict.

In response to the Red Sea crisis, the Biden administration launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, a military operation led by the US and other allied countries to protect the critical shipping lane. However, months later, the operation failed to protect ships. Furthermore, the US and UK have launched bombing raids on Yemen and other Middle Eastern countries to fight back against Iran-backed terror groups. 

"China and Russia are deepening their strategic alliance with Iranian-backed terrorists. It's a further sign of an emerging new world disorder that threatens freedom of navigation, commerce, transit, and communications," said David Asher, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, who commented on the Bloomberg report. 

Asher continued: "No one should doubt that Putin and Xi are increasingly coordinating their moves with Tehran while the US embraces appeasement, including via releasing billions of dollars to the Iranians with no substantive result to American interests, power, and prestige."

In a recent note titled "The Weaponization Of Crude Could Trigger The Next Financial Shock," Asher warned that "Iran is preparing for an oil war—and markets ignore the growing risks." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 19:20

'Gender Science' Was Merely Ideology All Along

'Gender Science' Was Merely Ideology All Along

Authored by Wesley J. Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Did you hear the news? England’s National Health Service (NHS) has decided that children diagnosed with gender dysphoria will no longer receive puberty blockers because “there is not enough evidence to support the safety or clinical effectiveness ... to make the treatment routinely available at this time.

Childrens books on gender in Irvine, Calif., on Sept. 7, 2022. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

The premier of Alberta, Canada, is planning legislation to restrict “gender-affirming” surgeries such as mastectomies for minors and puberty blockers for youth aged 15 and under. Other socially liberal nations have also hit the brakes on “gender affirmation,” in children, including Norway, Finland, France, Denmark, Sweden, and New Zealand. So have a score of American states.

Why did it take so long for common sense to return to this contentious issue? Blame the cultural imperialism of gender ideologues who, while most of us were not paying attention, successfully instituted “treatment guidelines” that focused almost exclusively on “affirming” a child’s gender confusion as medically necessary, while branding the more cautious approach of deeply exploring the mental health issues that could have contributed to the patient’s confusion as “transphobic,” and, even, likely to drive gender-confused children to suicide.

WPATH—which stands for the World Professional Association for Transgender Health—led the charge. Members of the organization are committed to the belief that “gender”—as opposed to sex—constitutes a human being’s true self and that gender “identity” can be known by the child when very young—in some cases, even before starting school.

Moreover, when a child claims a particular gender identity different from that “assigned at birth”—male, female, nonbinary, transgender, etc.—that patient must be believed, “affirmed,” and set on the road to an eventual “transition.”

But gender ideologues didn’t just promote their views about how gender dysphoric children should be treated in the marketplace of ideas. Rather, the entirety of the woke cultural infrastructure mobilized to punish those who challenged the new orthodoxy.

Social authoritarianism became the order of the day. Many elementary and high schools were at the vanguard. Administrators ordered teachers not to alert parents to their child’s gender confusion at the risk of job loss. Teachers were fired if they “mis-pronouned” a gender-confused student or used the child’s “dead” (given) name instead of the gender-affirming name chosen by the child. Some teachers even proselytized gender ideology to their students, for example by placing LGBT flags in classrooms and assigning readings from pro-gender transitioning books.

Meanwhile, social media companies canceled the accounts of those who disputed affirmation as the “medically necessary, life-saving standard of care.” Blue states such as California passed laws threatening to remove the custody of children from parents who refused to affirm their child’s declared gender identity. Medical professionals who sought to continue the more traditional approaches to care were accused of engaging in hateful “conversion therapy” and threatened with professional discipline.

For a time, the ideological juggernaut seemed unstoppable. But as the old saying goes, eventually truth “will out.” Less ideological medical professionals reviewed the actual data and noticed that the supposedly settled science was much less certain than the activists claimed. Moreover, the potential medical harm from puberty blocking and performing surgeries on healthy bodies came to the forefront—in large part thanks to the advocacy of “de-transitioners” who were affirmed in their gender confusion but came to realize that they are, indeed, the sex they were born. The tragic testimonies of young women without breasts and boys with potential lifelong sexual dysfunction exposed the potential cruelty of the gender-affirming approach.

And now, a shocking new report—“The WPATH Files,” published by Environmental Progress—has exposed WPATH’s rank ideological method as primarily “consumer-driven and pseudoscientific”—as opposed to evidence-based—and (appearing) to be “political activism, not science.”

Not only that, but the study demonstrates that contrary to WPATH’s claims, the “psychiatric condition of gender dysphoria is not a fatal illness, and the best available studies show that in the case of minors, with watchful waiting and compassionate support, most will either grow out of it or learn to manage their distress in ways less detrimental to their health.” In other words, alternative non-invasive approaches can help young patients overcome their gender confusion without mutilating their bodies.

Backing up the study’s many data-derived criticisms, author Mia Hughes also quotes actual transcripts of some WPATH members’ shocking disregard for the wellbeing of their patients made in private communications. For example, the report quotes one of the authors of WPATH’s standards of care guidelines admitting that children are too immature to comprehend the enormity of the transition they may desire: “[It is] out of their developmental range to understand the extent to which some of these medical interventions are impacting them.”

Another WPATH member shrugs that minor patients do not fully appreciate the consequences of sterility that some medically “affirming” treatments can cause. “It’s always a good theory that you talk about fertility preservation with a 14-year old, but I know I’m talking to a blank wall. They’d be like, ew, kids, babies, gross.”

Environmental Progress’s exposé illustrates the danger of meekly following “the experts.” This is particularly true when the main defense of a new and radical agenda is based on a supposed consensus, and that therefore, the science is now “settled.” As my Discovery Institute colleague Stephen C. Meyer says: If you have to rely on a supposed “consensus” to defend your [scientific] position, it means there isn’t really a consensus. That goes double when skeptics are coerced into silence to maintain the primacy of a particular cultural orthodoxy.

“The WPATH Files” demonstrates that courageous resistance to destructive social fads is never futile. But good golly it can be difficult when ideology successfully masks as science. Hopefully, the report will hasten the end of our destructive transgender moral panic—at least as it impacts minors—and we will finally protect these agonized youngsters in the way all vulnerable children deserve.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 18:55

"Our Country Is Being Poisoned": 270,000 Overdose Deaths Catapult Fentanyl As Major Voter Topic In Presidential Race

"Our Country Is Being Poisoned": 270,000 Overdose Deaths Catapult Fentanyl As Major Voter Topic In Presidential Race

In a recent interview on Fox News, former President Donald Trump warned, "Our country is being poisoned from within by the drugs and by all of the other crime that's taking place." 

According to the latest provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between November 2019 and October 2023, there have been a shocking 270,000 overdose deaths from synthetic opioids - or about 80,000 overdose deaths per year - across the nation. 

Source: Bloomberg

Under the Biden administration's first term, Americans have been increasingly traumatized by the tsunami of overdose deaths as disastrous open southern border policies flood the nation with illegal drugs and millions of unvetted migrants that have sparked chaos across major metro areas. 

American voters are increasingly frustrated with progressive policies that have backfired, resulting in the loss of countless American lives, many of them young people. 

This is how China uses open southern borders to poison the American people.

A new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of nearly 5,000 registered voters shows 8 in 10 voters in seven swing states believe fentanyl misuse is a "very important" or "somewhat important" issue when deciding who to vote for in November. The drug overdose issue trumps abortion, climate change, labor and unions, or the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. 

Early in President Biden's first term, he stated one of the central pillars of his "Unity Agenda" was to solve the overdose crisis. Fast-forward to today, Biden's team of clowns has failed as they prioritize open southern borders over the well-being and health of law-abiding taxpayers. Just think about that for a few seconds... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 18:30

Pentagon Still Open To Allowing US 'Boots On The Ground' In Haiti

Pentagon Still Open To Allowing US 'Boots On The Ground' In Haiti

Authored by Will Porter via The Libertarian Institute, 

A senior US military official said the Pentagon has not yet ruled out an American deployment to Haiti, which has seen a spike in violent unrest that prompted the resignation of the country’s prime minister last week. 

Speaking during an event hosted by the Atlantic Council on Tuesday, US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) head General Laura Richardson was asked whether she envisions “boots on the ground” in the Caribbean nation.

Via AFP

“Not right now,” she said, before adding “They could be at the end of the day. We wouldn’t discount that at any time.” Without elaborating, Richardson also went on to suggest that Haitian refugees fleeing violence could be housed at the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay – the notorious torture prison which has held hundreds of foreign terrorism suspects without charges for years on end.

Haiti has been gripped by a long bout of chaos since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moise, who was replaced by Prime Minister Ariel Henry – then the West’s favored successor. Also assuming the powers of the presidency, Henry took office in lieu of a popular vote, repeatedly postponing elections even after lawmakers’ terms expired last year and left the legislature crippled.

However, with Henry failing to rein in gangs and armed groups running rampant across Port-au-Prince – some even seizing control of ports and other key infrastructure – the PM gradually lost his international backing, agreeing to resign last week under pressure from Washington and other regional states. 

The premier will be replaced by a nine-member transition council intended to pave the way to future elections – at a yet-unspecified date – and create an “action plan for near-term security,” according to Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, who helped to broker Henry’s resignation.

After repeated appeals to the United Nations for an international security force to help quell the violence, Henry finally struck a deal earlier this month for a Kenyan-led mission backed by other nations and largely financed by the United States. It is that initiative which Richardson suggested US troops could ultimately join.

With Henry stepping down, however, Nairobi has signaled that the multi-national security mission would be delayed until the new council is established, leaving it unclear when – or whether – the plan will come to fruition.

“The deal they signed… still stands, although the deployment will not happen now because definitely we will require a sitting government to also collaborate with,” Kenyan Foreign Ministry spokesman Salim Swaleh told the New York Times last week. “You don’t just deploy police to go on the Port-au-Prince streets without a sitting administration.”

With a lengthy and often violent history of outside intervention in the country, some Haitians have objected to any foreign troop presence, fearing it may do more harm than good given disastrous experiences with UN-led missions in the past. 

The Haitian people have kept the bitter taste of a foreign force in charge of our situation: theft, rape, cholera, food dependence, deregulation of the economic system, without mentioning the fact that we don’t remember seeing then-gang leaders be arrested or rendered unable to do harm,” Haitian think tank Groupe de Travail sur la Securite (Security Working Group) said in a statement in 2022, soon after Henry’s first appeal for an international deployment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 18:05

Large US Banks Suffer Another Weekly Deposits Outflow; Stocks & Fed Reserves Completely Decoupled

Large US Banks Suffer Another Weekly Deposits Outflow; Stocks & Fed Reserves Completely Decoupled

With The Fed's bank bailout facility now expired, the 12-month term loans are starting to mature and the fund dropped over $17.2BN last week...

Source: Bloomberg

Money-market funds saw a big outflows of almost $62BN, which we wonder if related to tax-year liquidity issues, but it is a little early in the year...

Source: Bloomberg

And as money-markets saw outflows, so banks saw deposit inflows... +$38.2BN (SA) and +$41.3BN (NSA) in total deposit increases...

Source: Bloomberg

Excluding foreign deposits, domestic banks saw their second straight week of SA inflows +$23.5BN (Large Banks -$8.7BN, Small Banks +32BN), while NSA deposits saw a third straight week of inflows +50.1BN (Large banks +47.4BN, Small banks +2.7BN)

Source: Bloomberg

Large Domestic US banks have seen deposit outflows for 5 of the last 6 weeks (while Small banks saw a huge deposit boost)...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall loan volumes rose, but very modestly (Large banks +$1.9BN, Small banks +$1.8BN)

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, there was a large jump in small bank cash relative to total assets last week (and viuce versa for large banks) which happens to coincide with the end of the BTFP facility

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, US bank reserves at The Fed shrank this week as US equity market cap soared to a new record high...

Source: Bloomberg

Quite a decoupling.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 17:40

Florida Bans Homeless Encampments

Florida Bans Homeless Encampments

Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

On Wednesday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) signed a bill into law that bans homeless encampments in the state of Florida.

As reported by Just The News, House Bill 1365, formally titled the Unauthorized Public Camping and Public Sleeping Act, demands that homeless individuals be placed in temporary shelters that will be monitored by state law enforcement agencies, while also banning the use of drugs in such shelters and providing drug and alcohol treatment to occupants who need it.

Furthermore, the law gives residents and businesses the power to sue a city or county government if it allows homeless camps to continue on public property. In the event that homeless shelters reach full capacity, the Florida Department of Children and Families will provide alternative shelters.

“Florida will not allow homeless encampments to intrude on its citizens or undermine their quality of life like we see in states like New York and California,” said DeSantis during a press conference.

“The legislation I signed today upholds our commitment to law and order while also ensuring homeless individuals have the resources they need to get back on their feet.”

The bill was sponsored by State Representative Sam Garrison (R-Fla.), who said that “in Florida, we will learn from the mistakes of cities like San Francisco, Denver, Los Angeles, and more, which are paying the price for their unwillingness to act.”

“This bill will not eliminate homelessness,” Garrison admitted.

“But it is a start. And it states clearly that in Florida, our public spaces are worth fighting for. The status quo is not an option. In Florida we choose to act. It is simply the right thing to do.”

The bill was passed by the State House of Representatives on March 1st, by a vote of 82 to 26, and subsequently passed the State Senate on March 5th by a vote of 27 to 12.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 17:15

Wake-Up Call

Wake-Up Call

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“Those who organized the disaster will take advantage of the inevitable discontent arising from efforts to overcome it, for if there is one thing that they are skilled in, it is demagoguery.”

- Theodore Dalrymple

Can you feel it? The tension rising to the red-line? It runs clear through all of Western Civ. We are ruled by governments of fiends. But now, the sun rides higher in the sky. The sap is rising in the northern forests. The earth heaves. The buds swell and blush. Something is in the air. The animals are waking from their long winter sleep. The natives are restless.

The two traditional political divisions, liberal and conservative died with Covid. Now there are simply the sane versus the insane. The sane have had enough of being pushed around by the insane. The insane don’t register much of what reality tries to tell them. They have a body of insane ideas to comfort and protect them from the reality’s rigors. To call that body of ideas an “ideology” is way too polite.That the insane call themselves “progressive,” is a signature of their insanity.

Progress toward what better state of things? Toward a supremacy of fiends, sadists, degenerates, and morons seizing riches and power by every dishonest means possible outside the rule of law and common decency? It’s not even suitable to call them “communists.” They lack the necessary idealism for that.

They don’t expect to put their shoulders to the wheel with their fellow man. They just want to grab your stuff and then kill you so they don’t have to hear any complaints.

The insane do not believe any of the theoretical bullshit they want to force you to swallow. They don’t care about climate change. It’s just a cudgel they use to beat everyone over the head so they can steal your stuff. They don’t care about “democracy.” It’s just a line of bullshit to cover up their election-stealing. Do you suppose that sane people would keep using electronic vote-tabulating machines that were demonstrably connected to the Internet, and thus hackable, if they cared about election integrity? Of course not. They would arrange p.d.q. to junk them and use paper ballots, and only in person at polling places, with “absentee” exceptions only for people out of the country.

The insane do not care about public health. Everything that is known about the Covid-19 vaccinations tells you that they are unsafe and don’t prevent infection or transmission of a flu-like illness that might not even be what it was officially labeled as. Our public health officials in the FDA, the CDC, and in other corners of the Department of health and Human Services, lie about everything they’re responsible for. This week, the CDC (under Director Mandy Cohen) released a 148-page study on myocarditis reactions to mRNA shots. Every word on every page of the document was redacted. The CDC printed countless copies of the report with 148 utterly blank pages, and then proffered them to the news media. How is that not insane?

The insane do not care about the rule of law. The conduct of “Lawfare” is the subversion of the law by dishonest means. It is a species of racketeering. And that is why Lawfare rogues such Marc Elias, Norm Eisen, Andrew Weissmann, Mary McCord, Lisa Monaco, Matthew Graves, and Merrick Garland, should be charged under the federal RICO statutes for conspiring to deprive sane citizens of their rights and property in the many cases related to the 1/6/21 riot at the US Capitol.

It is, so far, an abiding mystery of contemporary history as to how New York Attorney General Letitia James managed to get away with prosecuting a real estate case against Donald Trump that was no more than victimless business-as-usual between a borrower and his lenders. Ms. James ran for that elected office promising to “get” Mr. Trump on something, anything. That is not how the rule of law works. Under the rule of law, first you determine that there is a crime and then look for who did the crime.

Letitia James must be insane and/or pretty stupid. The short-term gain of stealing Mr. Trump’s property under a false color-of-law and creating impediments to his election campaign, will, sooner or later, blow back at her as a matter of malicious prosecution and, plausibly, racketeering as well. (With whom did she conspire to bring this case? We shall find out.) She will eventually be disgraced publicly as her teammate Fani Willis has already been disgraced in Fulton County, Georgia. I’ll tell you something that all sane people now know but won’t talk about for fear of being crushed by the levers of Lawfare: this looks like a concerted effort by people-of-color to railroad people of non-color. If you think that is a good thing for race relations in our country, then you are insane.

Here are a bunch of other things that are insane: Re-litigating the first amendment is insane. It means what it says, and states it plainly. The open border is insane. No credible sovereign polity would allow it. It would be opposed with force, if necessary. Turning children into transsexuals on a wholesale basis is insane, and fiendishly so. Everybody knows that it is not good for the children or for our society as a whole. But fiends got to fiend, and if you try to deprive them of being fiends then you are guilty of “hate.”

The war in Ukraine is insane. We certainly didn’t ignite it in the service of “democracy.” Our pawn there, Mr. Zelensky, canceled the national elections last year. The war was arguably an effort by our CIA to deprive Russia of its market for natgas in Europe, and thus deprive Russia of a great deal of money, that is, of prosperity. The project failed. Russia overcame NATO’s proxy army and found other markets for its gas. Blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines only served to impoverish and weaken our NATO allies, who no longer have affordable gas to run their industries. The leaders of those allies were too insane to recognize that the Nord Stream op was an act-of-war against them. They were also busy destroying themselves, like the USA, with open borders. They will end up in a new medievalism, ruled by savages. You’d have to be insane to arrange that for yourself.

What’s most obviously insane in our country is that the insane party is pretending to nominate the mentally unfit White House place-keeper, “Joe Biden,” for reelection. You would think that if this party wanted to retain power, they would run a candidate who, though insane, was not also visibly senile. But the rank and file of this party are too insane to see that this dodge is not working. They are pretending with all their might that this is okay, that the growing faction of the sane don’t notice.

Sensing the growing impatience with insanity among the voters, the insane party has reached its point of terminal desperation. What will they try next? Murder? Why not? Nothing else seemed to work. They are too far gone in their insanity to understand that winter is over. We’ve entered the season of rebirth and renewal, starting with a renewed appreciation for being sane and for that indispensable ingredient that makes liberty in a free society possible: good faith. Really, the only question left is: how rough do they intend to play to prevent the return of sanity and good faith?

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 16:25

'Powell Put' Sparks Surge In Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar; Bullion & Black Gold Flat On Week

'Powell Put' Sparks Surge In Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar; Bullion & Black Gold Flat On Week

Positive macro, central bank love-fest, and AI catalysts... buy all the things...

US Macro 'outperformed' expectations this week amid more pro-cyclical data points...

Source: Bloomberg

...which combined with a dovish tilt by Powell (which lifted 20-24 rate-cut expectation)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and positive AI catalysts...

Source: Bloomberg

Put this all together - rates, growth, and secular momentum --and it is perhaps not surprising that stocks have reached another all-time high in the US.

Led to a solid week for all the majors with Nasdaq outperforming...

The S&P 500 trades at a 2025 P/E of 20+.

So the question may simply be: can the rates/growth/secular innovation dynamic be sustained long enough to allow corporate earnings to grow into the current market's valuation?

Shorts were aggressively squeezed Wednesday an Thursday...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the week lower, including the long-end (-4bps), but the short-end outperformed (-13bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

Which left the curve (2s30s) stepper on the week....

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar roared back to six week highs this week...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ETFs saw large net outflows this week...

Source: Bloomberg

And that weighed on the underlying with spot bitcoin back at $64,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week around unchanged, despite a hige spike intraweek to a new record high...

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices ended the week unchanged, roundtripping from the early week gains...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, this is not good news for Biden and his biddies...

Source: Bloomberg

Pump prices are heading up... and Biden's approval rating down at the sane tune.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 16:20

"We Have Reached A Bottom": Uranium Poised To Jump Again After 3 Month Correction

"We Have Reached A Bottom": Uranium Poised To Jump Again After 3 Month Correction

Uranium prices may have dipped slightly over the last 4 months, but its looking like the new "top" we've set over the last year is going to likely act as "support" as we forge forward into what Bloomberg is calling a "nuclear future". 

In New York, the price of uranium futures has dipped to $88.50 per pound, a decrease from the peak seen in February, which was a 16-year high, yet remains significantly above the average price of $66.60 recorded last year.

Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC, a nuclear industry research firm told the news outlet: “We have reached a bottom. The fundamentals are still strong, with increased demand and supply that hasn’t fully responded.”

According to Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mike Kozak, there's evidence to suggest that uranium prices have stabilized. Kozak forecasts a resurgence of fundamental buyers in the market, which is expected to propel prices upwards once more, Bloomberg wrote this week. 

Optimistic investors are focusing on uranium's future, driven by an increasing supply shortage and higher demand, as nations (finally pull their heads out from their a** and) seek nuclear energy solutions for climate change.

This interest is highlighted amid supply warnings from Canada's Cameco and Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom, the leading producers responsible for half of the worldwide uranium supply. Kazatomprom forecasts a significant supply deficit escalating from 21 million pounds in 2030 to 147 million pounds by 2040.

Geopolitical tensions, including a U.S. proposal to ban Russian uranium imports, which are essential for nuclear power and weapons, add complexity to the supply scenario, the report says. However, the potential resurgence of dormant mining operations due to rising uranium prices poses a risk of dampening the market rally, reminiscent of the recent boom-to-bust cycle in battery metals.

“We have a number of geopolitical factors that have a really significant influence on buyer behavior, even though fundamentally nothing has changed. Buyers can use the spot to tell them the sentiment of the day, but must look at the long-term market to see that it is marching steadily up, it hasn’t taken a hiccup at all,” concluded Treva Klingbiel, president of uranium price provider TradeTech.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 15:20

The Kremlin's Unprecedented Description Of The Ukraine Conflict As A "War" & What It Means

The Kremlin's Unprecedented Description Of The Ukraine Conflict As A "War" & What It Means

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

This should be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict... Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Argumenti I Fakty newspaper that “We are at war. Yes, it began as a special military operation, but as soon as this group was formed there, when the collective West became a participant in this on the side of Ukraine, for us it already became a war.” This is unprecedented since national security legislation prohibits the use of the word “war”, which is regarded as a mischaracterization of the way in which Russia is conducting what it refers to as a special operation.

The distinction is important regardless of whatever Western commentators claim since a special operation is a voluntarily limited military action whereas a war is only restricted by the international laws governing it (and only then if they’re abided by or externally enforced). Additionally, fighting what’s legally designated by the state as a war instead of a special operation pressures the authorities to respond accordingly to the West’s participation in this conflict, thus heightening the risk of escalation.

Peskov’s rhetorical shift came as France prepares to conventionally intervene in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz inadvertently revealed is already an undeclared but limited hot one that’s thus far remained manageable due to each side abiding by unofficial “rules”. By formalizing and then expanding the presence of French troops in the battlespace, however, President Emmanuel Macron risks exacerbating the NATO-Russian security dilemma to uncontrollable proportions.

Peskov’s unprecedented description of the Ukrainian Conflict as a “war” should therefore be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict. The reason behind publicly conveying this intent is to prompt France and the other states like the UKPoland, and the Baltic States that might also be contemplating a conventional intervention to rethink their plans.

Their decisionmakers and societies now know how Russia would respond to this provocation, and that could lead to an uncontrollable cycle of escalations that culminate in World War III by miscalculation. To be clear, Russia would have the legal and moral right to strike those opposing forces that enter the battlespace, so the responsibility for setting this dangerous sequence of events into motion rests entirely on the West’s shoulders.

The only reason why that bloc is considering this is because it fears that the possibly impending Russian breakthrough that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee recently warned might materialize by this summer could deal them a strategic defeat that discredits their politicians at home and abroad. They hyped the world up to expect Russia’s strategic defeat during last summer’s counteroffensive, but that maneuver totally failed, thus reshaping the conflict’s dynamics by placing Kiev back on the defensive.

Instead of accepting a full strategic defeat, some in the West now want to “escalate to de-escalate” by launching a conventional intervention that would either preempt a Russian breakthrough or immediately respond to it, which could then enable them to influence the endgame. In particular, they want to preserve their envisaged “sphere of influence” in Ukraine via its asymmetrical partition between NATO and Russia, not to mention reduce the size of Moscow’s hoped-for buffer zone in that country.

The Kremlin wants to deter them from doing so, which explains its spokesman’s unprecedented rhetorical shift that came amidst the largest-ever attack against Ukraine’s energy grid, with these intertwined diplomatic-military moves signaling what would happen to NATO troops if they get involved. Maintaining their undeclared but limited hot war is much more manageable than Russia being forced to respond to a conventional NATO intervention that it rightly fears could be the start of a larger invasion.

The international laws governing war would therefore be applied to stop this threat right in its tracks, with the consequence being that the West is pressured to retaliate in at least a tit-for-tat fashion so as not to “lose face” at home and abroad, especially after its uniformed soldiers are killed. Although Russia just carried out its largest-ever attacks against Ukraine’s energy grid, however, it’s still officially fighting a special operation that voluntarily limits its military actions instead of an all-out war according to Peskov.

He clarified shortly after his interview was released that “This is a special operation de jure, but de facto for us it turned into a war after the collective West increasingly increased the level of its involvement in the conflict.” This served to show that Russia is still restraining itself, which is meant to prevent its opponents from commencing a conventional intervention on the false pretext that Russia has supposedly already removed all such restraints after Peskov described the conflict as a “war”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed shock at how Macron’s rhetoric catalyzed this latest “spiral of war” as he phrased it, which “seemed absurd and unthinkable just two months ago” in his words, but he doesn’t have the influence required to stop it or help them manage this latest escalation. The Pope and/or India are the only players with the ability to mediate between the warring parties to that end due to their neutral reputations and the trust that they enjoy with all sides.

China is also neutral just like those two, but it’s not trusted by the West, whose American leader is already preparing to “Pivot (back) to Asia” for the purpose of containing the People’s Republic after the Ukrainian Conflict inevitably ends. It therefore falls on the Pope and/or India to diplomatically intervene if the warring parties agree, which they appear somewhat receptive to when it comes to the second after Prime Minister Narendra Modi just spoke to Presidents Putin and Zelensky on Thursday.

Furthermore, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba is expected to visit India sometime next week in the first such trip by one of his country’s top officials since the special operation began, and this could help India get the diplomatic ball rolling if the political will exists on Kiev’s side to do so. Peace talks might not resume anytime soon, but Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar could still position himself as a possible mediator between the West/Ukraine and Russia.

He's one of the world’s most experienced diplomats so he’ll certainly be able to handle this task if requested, in which case his involvement could help manage this latest escalation by helping the warring parties get a clearer idea of each side’s red lines and how they’ll react in various scenarios. The importance in doing so is to decrease the risk of World War III by miscalculation in the event that a NATO member or group thereof conventionally intervenes in Ukraine after the warning that Russia conveyed.  

Returning to Peskov’s rhetorical shift, the best that it could therefore do is prompt the West to back off from its plans, after which the warring parties could rely on Indian mediation to manage this latest phase of their security dilemma. If the West misinterprets his words as a “bluff” and still goes through with what Macron talked about, especially without India mediating to share each side’s red lines and how they’ll react in various scenarios, then the risk of World War III by miscalculation will be higher than ever.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 15:00

Goldman Takes A Field Trip To Tesla & Rivian 

Goldman Takes A Field Trip To Tesla & Rivian 

Last month, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas described the electric vehicle industry as "extremely negative" and predicted further deterioration. Following this assessment, Goldman Sachs analysts met with executives from Tesla and Rivian on Thursday to delve deeper into the industry's challenges. 

Goldman's Mark Delaney and other analysts first met with Tesla executives at the Fremont factory, including Martin Viecha (VP of IR), Abhinav Davuluri (Investor Relations Lead), and Travis Axelrod (Sr. Staff Program Manager, IR). They chatted about everything from the EV slowdown to vehicle pricing to the Cybertruck and artificial intelligence. 

Here's a summary of what was spoken about:

Tesla is between growth waves; new products a key consideration: According to the comments from its last earnings call, Tesla is currently between two growth waves, and expects notably lower growth in 2024. Ramping new and refreshed models, and entering additional countries, could contribute to growth this year. Tesla is now using some digital advertising. The company has faced certain headwinds to production this year in Berlin, including the Red Sea conflict and loss of power. As Tesla shared on its last earnings call, new products like a vehicle using the low-cost platform could help to re-accelerate growth, and the company is targeting 2H25 to begin production of this product in Texas.

Tesla remains flexible with pricing and plans to stay FCF positive on an annual basis: Tesla continues to actively monitor pricing, and has regularly adjusted pricing in key markets. As communicated on recent earnings calls, the company plans to stay FCF positive on an annual basis, even if it is more aggressive with pricing. Lower pricing could put more vehicles on the road and create an opportunity to monetize software and services. 

As we highlighted in our note The price is right? The case for Tesla to be more selective on US price cuts; analysis on EV pricing and IRA we believe that Tesla should be firm with pricing for Model 3/Y in the US as the vehicles are attractively priced, particularly with IRA credits and our analysis shows that broad-based incremental price cuts would be negative for profits at least in the short term (although a more entry-level SKU of the Model Y with a lower BOM could help Tesla to expand volumes while supporting overall margins/profits in our opinion). However, we believe Tesla is facing a higher degree of competition internationally, especially in China, and a somewhat more aggressive approach to pricing may be needed there. 

Tesla continues to be optimistic on AI and what it could enable for its products: The company is optimistic on what AI will mean for its technology, with FSD Beta 12.3 being a step change forward and exhibiting more human-like behavior. Increasing GPU capabilities should help to accelerate development.

4680 making progress: On 4680 the company commented on X recently that it continues to make progress ramping production, having recently produced enough for 1K Cybertrucks in a week. The company has mentioned on recent earnings calls that its yields are not yet where it wants to be, but in the long-term, 4680 batteries could contribute to cost savings.

Energy and Services offer growth: Tesla has a good opportunity to grow in both Energy and in Services. In Energy, Tesla is expanding in Lathrop, and the Services business can benefit from non-Tesla vehicles on the road.

We are Neutral rated on Tesla shares. Our 12-month price target is $190 which is based on 50X applied to our Q5-Q8 EPS estimates including SBC.

Key downside risks to our view relate to potentially larger vehicle price reductions than we expect, increased competition in EVs, delays with products/capabilities like FSD/the third generation platform/4680, key person risk, the internal control environment, margins, and operational risks associated with Tesla’s high degree of vertical integration. Upside risks include faster EV adoption and/or share gain from Tesla, a stronger macroeconomic environment for new vehicle sales more generally, earlier new product launches than we expect (e.g., a vehicle using the third generation platform), and an earlier/larger impact from AI enabled products (e.g., FSD and Optimus) than we currently anticipate.

After Tesla, the analysts sat down with Rivian execs, including McDonough (Chief Financial Officer), Tim Bei (Vice President - Strategic Finance, Corporate Development and IR), Derek Mulvey (Sr. Director, Strategic Finance & Investor Relations), and Aly Scholfield (IR) in Palo Alto. 

Here are their key takeaways from the discussion: 

Rivian continues to monitor the business environment and will be flexible with pricing: Rivian will utilize tools to support R1 demand including new SKUs and leasing. There will be various puts and takes to ASPs, including the lower-cost standard range vehicles but also fewer sales of vehicles at the original pricing stack. Rivian has seen good interest in higher-end trims.

Rivian targets a positive gross margin in 4Q: As previously mentioned on its 4Q23 earnings call, management expects to reach a positive gross margin in 4Q24. 

One key driver is improved material/input costs. The company plans to utilize several of the new technologies it will introduce into the R1 platform post the shutdown in 2Q24 for the R2, and supplier interest has been supportive to be on these programs. 

Increased software and service revenue is another factor in the company's gross margin positive target for 4Q, and management sees opportunities for growth including with regulatory credit sales, insurance, software and digital products.

Rivian commented that it has seen strong interest in R2: R2 interest has been strong, with over 68K refundable deposits received in less than 24 hours. Additionally, Rivian commented that many of its R2 orders were not from existing Rivian customers, which it believes broadened its customer funnel. 

Capital allocation and cash runway: The company has extended its cash runway through the start of R2 production (planned for 1H26), and will be opportunistic with the balance sheet. 

We are Neutral rated on the stock. Our 12-month price target is $13 which is based on 1.5X our Q5-Q8 revenue estimates. Key upside/downside risks to our view relate to EV adoption, volumes, the production ramp, the competitive landscape, Rivian's high degree of vertical integration, cash burn, and the supply chain.

The "neutral" ratings assigned to both Tesla and Rivian suggest that analysts expect limited upside as the EV industry slowdown continues. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 14:40

"Buckle Up For Irrational Exuberance" - Time-Traveling Bill Gross Touts Bond-Steepeners, Abandons Banks

"Buckle Up For Irrational Exuberance" - Time-Traveling Bill Gross Touts Bond-Steepeners, Abandons Banks

Via WilliamHGross.com,

I came upon a time machine quite innocently the other day as I was hunting for a wayward drive off the 8th tee on a golf course in toney Newport Beach. Skipping the incredible details of my discovery, let me just say that it couldn’t take me into the future but was programmed to take me 20 years into the past a la Rip Van Winkle in reverse.

It showed me the difference between now in 2024 and then in 2004, as I had forgotten much. In the interim here are some of the changes it reminded me of: 

  • College athletes are now paid on top of the table instead of under it! 

  • Bikinis on the beach now feature butt cracks instead of yellow polka dots.

  • Gas prices have doubled but no worries: drivers can now fill up their tanks with electricity.  

  • Passengers are now required to take off their shoes before boarding planes, and you have to pay for water, as well as the rubber chicken. 

  • No faxes anymore. Messages called “texts” today are now sent over little “cell phones.” The world has 5 billion of them in 2024.  

  • Biological males now compete in female sports thanks to “woke nation’s” pursuit of diversity and lack of common sense. 

  • Red carpet actresses display 99% full frontal instead of plunging cleavage. 

  • Hal has changed his name to AI or ChatGPT or whatever. He’s still trying to control the world though.  

  • Bill Gross has aged from 60 to 80, exposing cracks in the mirror as well as his golf game. 

  •  10-year Treasury yields over 20 years are unbelievably unchanged at 4.2%, but stock prices on the Nasdaq 100 are 12 times higher than in 2004. Jeremy Siegel’s “stocks for the long run” have done just that! 

So #10 is what concerns most of you I’m sure so I’ll stick with that instead of expanding on changes in ladies dress codes. First of all I find it remarkable that 10-year interest rates are unchanged since the beginning of 2004 although the interim saw huge swings, mostly in my opinion due to mistakes in Fed policy. First too tight until 2007, then too loose from 2009 onward until 2022. Cramer’s famous rant that “they know nothing” characterized most of the 20 years and believing now that they “know something” is more hope than pragmatism. Yes there was a financial crisis (but because the Fed had no knowledge of “shadow banks” and their hidden leverage) and Covid which pumped up fiscal deficits to $3 trillion and more. But 0% interest rates from 2009 to 2022? An old saying from centuries past in the gilt market said that “John Bull can stand many things but he can’t stand 2%” — meaning yields too low create “exuberance” in financial markets that Alan Greenspan wondered about but never answered. 

There should be no doubt that a decline in 10-year real interest rates from 2% in 2004 to a negative 1% in early 2022 had something to do with the twelvefold increase in the Nasdaq 100 although corporate tax rates, historically high profit margins and earnings, as well as momentum, momentum, momentum, were largely responsible. And the fact that the stock market has been unaffected by the 300-basis point rise in 10-year reals over the past 2 years tells an observer something.

It tells me that fiscal deficit spending and AI enthusiasm have been overriding factors and momentum and “irrational” exuberance have dominated markets since 2022.

But “how will we know” as Greenspan once queried? Hard to say.

An investor can only gauge a measure of his/her own exuberance and assume it somewhat resembles the masses.

That and high Shiller P/Es and the potential for Fed cuts in the second half of 2024. And continuing fiscal deficits in the $1-2 trillion range as far as one can see will continue to prop up the economy.  

My exuberance in the past 12 months has been confined to MLP pipelines and regional banks. MLPs have never been covered by the press and are unowned due to legal constraints by most mutual funds. That and higher oil prices have led to 28% average gains along with 9-10% tax-deferred yields since 2023. Better total return than the S&P 500 over the same time period. Regional banks? If bought right around the time I wrote about owning a bank perhaps 9 months ago, an investor would now be celebrating gains of 27% along with 4-5% yields.  

I mention this not to slap my own back because I have been whipped back and forth by AI favorite Broadcom — first short then on the long side this past week. It hurts to be irrationally exuberant on the wrong side of exuberance — especially when I know nothing about the company except it’s a big AI “wonder stock.” 

So where from here?

The MLPs are far above RSI and Bollinger Band averages. Be cautious.

I do like WES though. The market doesn’t seem to know about its recent 40% hike in its dividend and its current yield of 10.1% — tax deferred. 

Banks? tweeted (“X’ed”) recently not to try and catch a falling knife, but if the Fed lowers short rates later this year, they could catch a bid.

Some like Truist (TFC) are relatively clean as far as commercial real estate and trade at .89% of book. Be exuberant in a month or so. 

And lastly about 10-year Treasury rates. Too much supply.

And real rates at 2% imply a 2.3% breakeven rate against inflation with 10-year nominals at 4.3%. If inflation gets to 2.3% by the end of the year (not likely in my book) what can the 4.3% yield do? I don’t understand any of the new bond gurus on CNBC when they tout bonds.

Bet on a steepening of the negative yield curve. Sooner or later it must go positive if the economy is to stay positive. I am long 2’s and short 5’s and 10’s. 

We will all be time travelers over the next 12 months and beyond.

Travel Safely. Buckle up for excessive exuberance. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 14:20

Blinken's Dire Warning To Bibi: "You Need A Coherent Plan" Or Face Disaster In Gaza

Blinken's Dire Warning To Bibi: "You Need A Coherent Plan" Or Face Disaster In Gaza

Did Secretary Blinken just deliver Biden's promised 'come to Jesus' message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?

Blinken on Friday warned the Israeli leader and his war cabinet in a meeting that "Israel's security and its place in the world are in peril" according to a description of the remarks in Axios. Blinken emphasized to Israel's leadership that "you might not realize it until it's too late."

Blinken warned further that on Israel's current trajectory and with plans for the 'day after Hamas' still up in the air, the Gaza crisis is headed toward an indefinite troop occupation scenario with an insurgency Israel can't handled. He ultimately conveyed that Israel faces further isolation on the world stage.

AFP/Getty Images

"You need a coherent plan, or either you're going to be stuck in Gaza," the US top diplomat said per a source that spoke to Axios.

According to more from the closed door remarks, "The Secretary of State said that on the current path, Hamas will stay in control in Gaza or there will be anarchy, which will just create the conditions for more terrorism."

The Israeli prime minister is then reported to have responded following Blinken's dire warnings, "We will have our hands full for decades."

This unusual showdown comes as Israel says it is ready to send forces into Rafah, even if Washington objects, but that it's ready to facilitate the safe exit of the civilian population. As recently as days ago the White House said it had yet to see a coherent plan for a humanitarian corridor.

While Blinken emphasized that he came to Israel once again as a 'friend' - a clear humanitarian strategy needs to be put in place. Netanyahu addressed these US concerns in a statement Friday:

"I told Blinken we recognize the need to evacuate the civilian population from war zones in Gaza and to take care of humanitarian needs and that we are taking action in this direction."

And yet he also pledged to move forward with the Rafah operation unhindered: "But I also told Blinken that we can't defeat Hamas without going into Rafah and dismantling the remaining battalions there. I told him that I hope we can do it with U.S. support but if we need to we will do it on our own," Netanyahu said.

As for Israel's growing international isolation connected with the soaring civilian death toll in Gaza, world powers continue sparring a the UN Security Council. An AP summary of the resolution said:

The draft that was put to a vote made no direct link to the release of hostages taken during Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which was in the previous draft. But it unequivocally supported diplomatic efforts “to secure such a cease-fire in connection with the release of all remaining hostages.”

Russia complained that a draft resolution calling for ceasefire put forward by the US was in effect a greenlight for Israeli's military to enter Gaza:

Russia and China on Friday vetoed a U.S.-sponsored U.N. resolution calling for “an immediate and sustained cease-fire” in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza to protect civilians and enable humanitarian aid to be delivered to more than 2 million hungry Palestinians.

The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 11 members in favor, three against and one abstention.

Russian ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said the US draft resolution "contains an effective green light for Israel to mount a military operation in Rafah." He emphasized Russia will no longer tolerate "pointless resolutions, which do not contain a call for a ceasefire which lead us to nowhere."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 13:40

Turns Out We Do Have A 'Deep State'... And It's "Awesome"

Turns Out We Do Have A 'Deep State'... And It's "Awesome"

Authored by Kit Knightly via Of-Guardian.org,

After years of denials, the mainstream media has decided to admit the Deep State does exist…and apparently it’s “awesome”...

At least, according to this new video from the New York Times:

It Turns Out the ‘Deep State’ Is Actually Kind of Awesome

The video itself is a six-minute strawman, presenting interviews with rocket scientists –  as if they genuinely think that’s what people mean when they refer to the deep state –  then piling on insanely manipulative attempts to “humanise” the concept of the Deep State by talking about these guys’  hobbies and interests.

It’s cheesy and flippant and every bit as cringe as it sounds:

We went on a road trip to find out. As we met the Americans who are being dismissed as public enemies, we discovered that they are … us. They like Taylor Swift. They dance bachata. They go to bed at night watching “Star Trek” reruns. They go to work and do their jobs: saving us from Armageddon.

Let’s state the obvious – when we talk about the Deep State, we’re not talking about people protecting children from exploitation in Chicago and we’re not talking about amiable Star Trek fans building life-saving rockets –  and the New York Times video production team know this as well as we all do.

We’re talking about corrupt military and intelligence agencies, with ties to big business, who really control the government using “elected” politicians as sock puppets.

We’re talking about the machinery put in place which impoverishes the poor and undermines human rights to further authoritarian control over the people whilst facilitating and accelerating the transformation of public money into private profits.

Maybe the people that do all that are also Spock-loving marathon runners, maybe not. I don’t care, I’d just like them to stop.

The propaganda bait-and-switch is as pathetic as it is clumsy. They think that by putting human faces on the lowest and most amiable  rungs of Federal power they can pretend it’s nothing but love and light all the way through. By defending the defensible, they hope to give the indefensible a pass.

The clumsy message of the video couldn’t be clearer, in fact here it is word-for-word from the NYT:

When we hear “deep state,” instead of recoiling, we should rally. We should think about the workers otherwise known as our public servants, the everyday superheroes who wake up ready to dedicate their careers and their lives to serving us. These are the Americans we employ. Even though their work is often invisible, it makes our lives better.

Golly gee. How adorable.

Personally, I am old enough to remember all the way back to 2017  and the  dozen different articles all explaining, in great detail, why the US does not have a deep state at all. I wrote a long response to this at the time.

Turns out they were all wrong anyhow, the US does have a Deep State after all – it’s peopled by bachata dancing Swifties who “save us from Armageddon” – and we should be very grateful for it.

It’s all reminiscent of the meme that’s been doing the rounds for years, on how the formerly unthinkable is normalised in public discourse.

  1. That doesn’t happen, and everyone who says it does is a conspiracy theorist.

  2. That happens sometimes but it’s very rare.

  3. That should actually happen more.

  4. That is happening a lot and it’s a good thing  (we are currently here)

  5. People who don’t like this happening are the problem.

Guess that means we’ve got number five to look forward to.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 13:20

Life After Roosevelt Hotel: Migrants Stuffed Into 180 Sqft 'Micro Apartments' Ahead Of Elections

Life After Roosevelt Hotel: Migrants Stuffed Into 180 Sqft 'Micro Apartments' Ahead Of Elections

Some migrants, after spending months in luxurious hotels, such as the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown Manhattan, are winding up in more permanent housing solutions in other crime-ridden progressive-controlled cities. In at least one case, migrants are being packed like cattle into a 'micro-apartment' - just before the US presidential election in November. 

Forbes interviewed Barbara Peraza-Garcia and her family, migrants from Venezuela, living in a 180-square-foot (17-square-meter) single-room apartment in Seattle. It's a tight squeeze for the migrant family, and the rent is high at $900 a month. Still $500 less than the average cost for a studio in the city. 

"It's warm. We can cook ourselves. We have a private bathroom. It's quiet," said Peraza-Garcia, whose family fled Venezuela. 

Barbara Peraza-Garcia holds her 2-year-old daughter, Frailys, by the kitchenette section of her 'micro apartment' while her partner, Franklin Peraza, browses Netflix in Seattle. Source: AP News 

Dan Bertolet, senior director of housing and urbanism for the non-profit research center Sightline Institute, said the 180-square-foot apartment's price is the "cheapest you're going to get without trying to find a subsidized apartment."

The invasion of ten million migrants is colliding with the US' affordable housing crisis, with the lack of studios and one-bedroom apartments.

That's why some cities, like New York City, have erected massive migrant tent cities and stuffed illegals in hotels until permanent housing solutions are found and or until after the elections.

Some migrants are figuring out about "squatter's rights" in progressive cities and have called on other illegal aliens to "invade" unoccupied homes across America." 

The fact is, cities don't have enough affordable homes, enough shelters, or enough money to house migrants for free, but there seems to be a push by Democrats to keep them in cities until at least after the election this fall.

While Republican lawmakers have pushed bills to detain unvetted migrants, Democrats have signaled they want migrants to vote in elections. 

Earlier this year, in a recent trio of posts to X, Elon Musk wrote that:

  1. Illegal immigrants "are not prevented from voting in federal elections."
  2. "You don't need a government-issued ID to vote."
  3. Democrats "are importing voters."

Earlier this week, Elon Musk posted a two-minute video detailing the end goals of the migrant invasion facilitated by the White House, non-governmental organizations, and mega-corporations

Turning illegal immigrants into progressive voters is the end goal of Democrats as they fight to stay in power by facilitating a migrant invasion with taxpayer dollars (they need a new voting base), weaponizing the Department of Justice against political opponents, and using federal agencies, NGOs, and mega-corporations to censor anyone who disagrees with their radical view points. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2024 - 13:00

Houthis Reassure Russia, China On Red Sea Transit In Exchange For Political Support

Houthis Reassure Russia, China On Red Sea Transit In Exchange For Political Support

Via The Cradle

The Yemeni Houthi government has reassured Russian and Chinese officials that their ships can safely cross the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean without fear of attack, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.

The Chinese and Russian diplomats reportedly met in Oman with Mohammad Abdul Salam, the spokesman and chief negotiator for Yemen's National Salvation Government (NSG), and "reached an understanding" about safe passage through the Red Sea and beyond.

Getty Images

"In exchange, the two countries may provide political support to [Yemen] in bodies such as the United Nations Security Council … It’s not entirely clear how that support would be manifested, but it could include blocking more resolutions against the group," the US news outlet cites their sources as saying.

Since mid-November, the Yemeni armed forces have conducted dozens of attacks on Israeli-linked vessels attempting to transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait as part of a military campaign in support of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.

Sanaa expanded its operations to include US and UK-linked ships after the two NATO allies started to drop bombs in areas controlled by the NSG. Concerns increased about the Red Sea crisis after the US militarized the key waterway in support of Israel's attacks on Palestinians in Gaza.

Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Dmitry Polyansky and China’s UN envoy Geng Shuang have blasted the US for illegally bombing the Arab world's poorest nation while failing to pressure Israel into accepting a diplomatic solution.

Polyansky said in mid-February, "An immediate cease-fire in Gaza will help stabilize the situation in the Red Sea, and the de-escalation in those waters will, in turn, unblock the efforts of [UN special envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg]."

"I would like to reiterate that the Security Council has never authorized any country to use force against Yemen. International law and resolutions of the council should not be subjected to misrepresentation and abuse by any country," Shuang told the UN Security Council earlier this month.

"There is constant cooperation and development of relations between Yemen, Russia, China, and BRICS states, as well as an exchange of knowledge and experience in various areas. This is necessary to drown the US and the West in [the crisis] around the Red Sea, to get bogged down, weaken, and become unable to maintain unipolarity," Ansarallah politburo member Ali al-Qahoum said via social media earlier this week.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/21/2024 - 17:00

"Invasion": Riot Erupts After Migrant Swarm Breaches US Southern Border, National Guard Left Helpless

"Invasion": Riot Erupts After Migrant Swarm Breaches US Southern Border, National Guard Left Helpless

Shocking scenes were caught on tape in El Paso - which technically is in Texas but may as well be in Mexico - on Thursday afternoon when a massive swarm of angry illegal aliens stormed the key chokepoint to the US southern border, breaking through the border wall and steamrolling National Guard troops. 

For those still unconvinced, this nation is being invaded, this video of illegals storming the border today should convince you otherwise.

The illegal immigrants are seen pulling the barrier open as four National Guardsmen try to keep them from crossing the border in the video posted on X by New York Post reporter Jennie Taer Thursday. The illegal immigrants rush through the gap opened, almost tramping the National Guard personnel, until coming up against a second, sturdier barrier.

Reporting on the ground, Taer warned that "A riot just broke out here in El Paso. "

The border has fallen. 

Earlier this week, Elon Musk posted a quick two-minute video detailing the end goals of the migrant invasion facilitated by the White House, non-governmental organizations, and mega-corporations

President Biden's disastrous open border policies have endangered the lives of American troops and citizens, just so Democrats can cheat in the next elections and flood mail-in ballots with votes from illegals. No other nation in the world, not even Europe's socialists, is willing to tolerate an invasion of this magnitude that has flooded the US with ten million illegals under Biden, who reversed multiple border-crossing policies initiated by Trump on his first days in office.

Texas has been clashing with the Biden administration over the state’s efforts to stop illegal immigration, with the United States Court of Appeal for the Fifth Circuit placing legislation that would allow state and local law enforcement to arrest illegal immigrants on hold.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas has called up the state’s National Guard to assist in erecting barriers to prevent illegal entry at places like Eagle Pass, which has been a hot spot for illegal crossing.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/21/2024 - 16:51

John Stossel: "Our World Needs Fewer Elizabeth Warrens And More Elon Musks" 

John Stossel: "Our World Needs Fewer Elizabeth Warrens And More Elon Musks" 

To advance human civilization, the world benefits from the contributions of engineers and intelligent capital allocators like Elon Musk, rather than progressive politicians like US Senator Elizabeth Warren, who are criticized for taking and unwisely spending the wealth of others. 

John Stossel, a former ABC News and Fox News anchor, posted a short video on the X platform that said the world needs more "makers" and fewer "takers." He called Musk "a hero" while criticizing Elizabeth Warren's war to tax and attempt to crush the billionaire. 

Stossel cites Musk's electric vehicle company, Tesla, which is leading the EV revolution, SpaceX's ability to build the best rockets in the world, and SpaceX's Starlink's ability to supply the world with internet. 

Meanwhile, Warren, who once identified as an "American Indian," has been on a spree to tax the living hell out of the billionaire but also weaponize federal agencies to investigate his companies, such as Tesla. 

Warren's latest absurdity is this week's move to urge the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate Tesla's Board over "lack of independence." 

Musk responded to our X post, calling Warren "Senator Karen" and indicating the senator is likely influenced by Sam Bankman-Fried's father, Warren's "main economic & tax advisor." 

Stossel continued by saying Warren has been demanding that big government "regulate this and regulate that ... and regulate this and that." 

Takers, such as Warren, are not productive for humanity as it's known that government bureaucrats are the worst capital allocators, hence why the National Aeronautics and Space Administration now relies heavily on private company SpaceX. 

"Our world needs fewer Elizabeth Warrens. And more Elon Musk," Stossel concluded at the end of the video. 

It then becomes apparent that a massive and overreaching government hinders this nation's progress. It's time to significantly reduce the size of the government and vote out the Warrens of the world that do more harm than good. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/21/2024 - 16:40

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