Trump Launches $12 Billion Strategic Mineral Stockpile To Counter China; Rare Earth Stocks Jump

The Trump administration is preparing to launch a major initiative aimed at protecting US manufacturers from disruptions in the supply of critical minerals, committing about $12 billion in initial funding to build a strategic stockpile of essential materials, according to Bloomberg. The project, known as Project Vault, is designed to reduce America’s dependence on China for rare earths and other strategically important metals. By creating a centralized reserve for civilian industries, officials hope to cushion companies against sudden shortages and sharp price swings that can disrupt production and strain finances.

Shares of MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Critical Metals and other rare earth associated names are higher between 5% and 10% heading into the cash open on Monday on the news.

At this point it's safe to say last week's Reuters rare earth hit piece (authored most likely at the behest of a disgruntled short), which sent the sector tumbling on disputed claims the Trump administration was seeking to distance itself from the rare earth space by moving away from a price floor on critical metals and suggesting MP's deal with the government may be in question, has been thoroughly debunked. Even the MP Materials X account was mocking the grotesque misreporting:

Pathetic

— MP Materials (@MPMaterials) January 29, 2026

Project Vault will be financed through a mix of private and public funding: $1.67 billion is expected to come from private investors, while the US Export-Import Bank is set to provide a $10 billion loan with a 15-year term. The bank’s board is scheduled to vote on the deal, which would be the largest in its history.

More than a dozen major companies have joined Project Vault, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, Corning, GE Vernova, and Google. Three large trading firms - Hartree Partners, Traxys North America, and Mercuria Energy - will handle sourcing and purchasing materials for the stockpile.

Some details about Project Vault’s structure were not immediately known, including the institutional investors providing the $1.67 billion (although JPMorgan will likely be among them). The senior administration officials said the project had been oversubscribed because investors are attracted by a credit-worthy group of manufacturers, their long-term commitments and the involvement of the US export-credit agency. 

The specific carrying costs that would be charged to those manufacturers, as well as the fees for the trading firms participating as procurement officers, weren’t disclosed.  Under the arrangement, companies that make an initial commitment to purchase materials at a specified inventory price later — and pay some up-front fees — will be able to present Project Vault with a shopping list of preferred materials they need. 

The project, in turn, will seek to procure and store the materials, with the manufacturers charged a carrying cost for the expenses associated with interest on the loan and holding the elements.  Manufacturers will be allowed to draw down their material stash as long as the firms replenish them. In the case of a major supply disruption, they will be able to access all of it, the officials said. 

Project Vault represents the first major public-private partnership under the Trump admin seeking reshoring of a critical supply chain, and blends government-backed financing with private investment and corporate participation. While the plan aims to strengthen domestic supply chains, it comes at a time when rare earth mining stocks such as MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are trading well below their recent highs.

Bloomberg writes that rather than focusing on oil, which naturally is at the basis of the nation’s emergency petroleum reserve, this new effort will concentrate on minerals such as gallium and cobalt.

These materials are used in a wide range of products, including smartphones, electric vehicle batteries, and aircraft engines. The stockpile is expected to cover both rare earth elements and other critical minerals whose prices tend to be unstable.

According to senior administration officials, the initiative would represent the first large-scale mineral reserve designed specifically for private-sector use. 

Investor interest has reportedly been strong, with officials saying the project is oversubscribed. They attribute this to the participation of major manufacturers, long-term purchasing commitments, and the backing of a federal credit agency. However, the identities of the main institutional investors and the exact cost structure have not yet been disclosed.

The program is part of a broader push to cut US reliance on China, which dominates much of the critical minerals supply chain. While the US maintains a reserve for defense needs, it has never created a similar system for civilian industries. The government has also expanded domestic investment and international cooperation with partners such as Australia, Japan, and Malaysia.

Momentum increased after China tightened export controls last year, forcing some US manufacturers to reduce output and exposing supply vulnerabilities. Under the system, companies will commit in advance to buy set quantities at agreed prices, pay upfront fees, and submit lists of needed materials, which Project Vault will acquire and store.

A central feature is price stabilization: firms must agree to repurchase the same volumes at the same prices in the future, a structure meant to limit volatility and protect against sudden cost spikes like the post-Ukraine surge in nickel prices. Trump is expected to discuss the plan with GM chief executive Mary Barra and mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 09:02

Bill Maher Torches Virtue-Signaling Lefty Celebs For Ditching Causes Once They're Not The 'Current Thing'

After another awards show shitshow of anti-Trump-ism at The Grammy's, Bill Maher has had it with Hollywood’s relentless virtue signaling, and during his latest monologue on his HBO show Real Time with Bill Maher.

And he really let the glitterati have it. 

Maher, a leftist liberal himself, began with mock enthusiasm for the endless parade of political posturing that now infects every red-carpet event.

“How about everybody drop the politics for a couple of hours,” he quipped, “and just enjoy these happy, dopey celebrations of show business?” 

At last month’s Golden Globes awards, a number of celebrities wore small, stylized pins tied to the Renee Good shooting, including vague slogans like “BE GOOD” and “ICE OUT.” 

"Of course, this is for the mother who was murdered by an ICE agent, and it's really sad. I know people are out marching and all today, and we need to speak up," actress Wanda Sykes told Variety on the red carpet before the award show. "We need to be out there and shut this rogue government down, because it's just awful what they're doing to people." 

Maher, who was also at the event, recalled a reporter asking him why he wasn’t wearing a lapel pin at the Golden Globes last month for the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis. At the time, he said, “Well, it was a terrible thing that happened, and it shouldn’t have happened, and if they didn’t act like such thugs, it wouldn’t have had to happen. But I don’t need to wear a pin about it.” He then added, “If I had the chance to think about it, my answer would be exactly the same.”

Maher then skewered the hysteria that followed his comments at the Golden Globes, where critics accused him of “refusing to join Golden Globes activism.” 

His reply dripped with sarcasm.

“Golden Globes activism? Oh, you mean the activism of fixing a fucking pin to my suit? I’m sorry, it clashed with my keffiyeh.” He mocked the self-congratulation behind Hollywood’s symbolic gestures. “I hope I didn’t spoil the perfect record of pins and ribbons solving all the world’s problems. You can’t name a problem, from guns to AIDS to bullying to breast cancer, that still exists after people wore a ribbon for it—except all of them.”

The old liberal crusaders took a hit next. “You fucking posers. Three years ago, everybody was all into Ukrainian flags. What happened to that? Another cause tossed into the junk drawer with yesterday’s choke collar?” He called virtue signaling “body ornaments” and delivered one of his trademark zingers: “They’re just crucifixes for liberals. Because every time I see one, I think, ‘Jesus Christ.’”

Maher gave a nod to Ricky Gervais’s now-legendary roast of Hollywood’s award show activism during the 2020 Golden Globe awards, when he said, “Don’t use it as a platform to make a political speech. You’re in no position to lecture the public about anything. You know nothing about the real world.”

Maher, of course, agreed with Gervais, adding, “Celebrities absolutely do have a right to speak out. I’m just saying: Don’t. It’s having the opposite effect of what you want.”

Maher then pointed to the 2024 election cycle, where “every big name in show business came out for Kamala Harris, from Oprah to Clooney to Beyoncé, and she lost every swing state.”

Maher highlighted data showing that Taylor Swift’s political endorsement actually drove voters away. “Come on! Read the room, Democrats. Celebrities aren’t helping, and why would they?”

The problem, he argued, is that stars are the least relatable people in the country at a time when affordability dominates public concern, pointing out that “celebrities don’t strike people as relatable or in touch. What their activism mostly activates is eye rolls.”

Celebrities, I know it’s very important to you that you feel that you’re making a difference, and you are, you’re making independents vote Republican. pic.twitter.com/EozEfoF8OZ

— Bill Maher (@billmaher) January 31, 2026

Hollywood's fake activism has a short shelf life. Stars slap on pins and flags to look good, then ditch the cause when the spotlight moves on because their activism is more about making them look good than about the cause they’re promoting. Maher nailed it—these celebs treat virtue like cheap jewelry, shiny for one night, trash the next. People are sick of it. 

Maher ended the tirade with a final swipe at celebrity activism. “Democrats, it’s great you have all the big celebs, but people see them as an arm of the Democratic Party, which they already suspect for lacking common sense. I know celebrities mean well, and we thank them for having their heart in the right place.”

He added, “Just do you. Use your extraordinary talents for the noble cause of bringing relief from the problems that ribbons and pins can’t fix. I know it’s very important to you that you feel that you’re making a difference... so let me assure you, you are. You’re making independents vote Republican.”

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 08:55

Futures Tumble As Plunging Metals And Bitcoin Spark Global Selloff, Margin Calls

Stock futures slide extending Friday's rout, although are well off session lows, with aggressive unwinds across commodities and a crypto rout adding to the risk-off mood and sparking cross-asset margin calls. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%, rebounding from a drop of as much as 1% earlier; Nasdaq futures drop 0.8%, also trimming the drop by half, and lag with focus on AI concerns a key theme for pre-market trading. European stocks were weaker in early trade but have since returned to a positive footing, Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% and just a few points away from its all-time-high. Asian stocks retreated for a second session as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, with high-flying technology names and shares linked to precious metals leading an early selloff in a data-heavy week. The biggest action is in metals, with gold and silver extending sharp declines, though big declines are seen here. Oil fell with other commodities, with easing US-Iran tensions also contributing. Bitcoin plunged to a 10-month low in Asia trading as Korean Kamikaze piled on the short side, before trimming losses. The US economic calendar includes January final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and January ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Bostic (12:30pm)

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks were all lower (Tesla -1.9%, Nvidia -1%, Meta -0.9%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -0.6%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -0.5%)

• US rare-earths stocks are rising as President Donald Trump is set to launch a strategic critical-minerals stockpile with $12 billion in seed money to lower reliance on China.(MP +4%, USAR +7%)
• Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall after Bitcoin tumbled over the weekend. Decliners include Coinbase (COIN), which is down 3%.
• Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) and Devon Energy (DVN) are combining to create a US shale producer with an enterprise value of about $58 billion, one of the largest oil and natural gas deals in years. Shares of Coterra are down 3%.
• Humana (HUM) falls about 2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the health insurer to underweight, citing vulnerability in its Medicare Advantage business.
• Oracle (ORCL) climbs 4% after Fitch affirmed the company’s long-term issuer default rating at BBB. Oracle plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year through a combination of debt and equity sales to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity.
• Walt Disney Co. (DIS) gained about 1% after reporting sales and profit that beat estimates in the first quarter of its fiscal year, boosted by a record $10 billion in revenue from the division that includes parks and cruises.

In corporate news, Oracle fell more than 3% in premarket trading before rebounding and turning green, after outlining plans to raise as much as $50 billion through debt and equity this year to expand cloud infrastructure capacity. As Wall Street braces for a borrowing binge to bankroll AI projects, investors are growing skeptical of the billions of dollars being spent, with little clarity on when returns will materialize. Nvidia CEO Huang said that a proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment,” although the company will participate in OpenAI’s latest funding round. Tech Watch looks at how concerns about the huge costs of AI are starting to boil over. Alphabet and Amazon report this week. 

Extreme volatility across commodities continued to be the center of attention in markets. Gold pared losses after falling as much as 10%. At one point, silver sank 16% before reversing most of the retreat. Brent tumbled about 5% after US President Donald Trump said Washington is talking with Iran. 

“Markets are nervous,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “We see a broad selloff across markets in Asia, Europe and the US. With the volatility increase in gold, but also in silver, investors have to de-risk.”

Monday’s moves are unwinding gains in some of the strongest performers of 2026, including Asian tech, emerging markets and commodities. The reversal was partly triggered by Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, a move that supported the dollar as traders saw the former Fed governor as tough on inflation and less inclined toward deep interest-rate cuts.

Spot gold and silver remain in the limelight with both extending Friday’s rout, although the metals are well off the worst levels as some Asian buyers make a comeback. Silver is down about 1.9%; earlier it briefly went negative on the year. “The impact of 2x and 3x leveraged longs on assets falling 20-30% is undoubtedly going to trigger margin calls on a lot of other collateral,” said Panmure Liberum’s Mark Taylor.

Bitcoin steadied after shedding nearly 13% since the start of the year, a plunge that briefly pushed it toward levels last seen when Trump retook the White House. The largest cryptocurrency has now fallen for four straight months, with the selloff shaped by an absence of buyers and waning conviction in its value as an alternative asset.

"This pullback looks healthy to me, there was really some excess across gold, silver and some tech stocks too,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “My take is that there will be a bounce back in the coming days.”

Equity volatility remains below its average over the past year, while the gold rally has shown a so-called vol-up/spot-up dynamic similar to what’s seen in AI and other frothy parts of the equities world. Retail traders had piled into the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) in the largest one-day net inflow on record last Thursday.

Gold, silver ETF daily notional volume in $ pic.twitter.com/H67ciLuvJW

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2026

Investors continue to parse what a Warsh-led Fed may mean. The selection of the economist known as much for his fierce criticism of the central bank as his changing views on monetary policy has shifted the debate to the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its very role in markets. 

Meanwhile, the US government stumbled into a partial shutdown Saturday while waiting for the House to approve a funding deal Trump worked out with Democrats. The funding lapse is likely to be short, with the House returning from a week-long break on Monday. 

“It’s typical of the 2026 constant stream of complicated news flow,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. “This follows a January that managed to both shock and awe in various ways, yet still delivered broad-based gains across all global assets.”

Not everyone is bearish: Robust earnings and well behaved inflation should counter geopolitical and other risks, JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka write. Traditional growth factors have been among the weakest-performing characteristics in US equities so far in 2026, a development “we view as healthy for the broader bull market,” notes Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Christopher Cain.

With another busy week of earnings on deck, the current market correction isn’t about earnings, Goldman strategists said, pointing to solid guidance from companies so far in the season. Out of the 167 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 78% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 16% have missed. Disney, Idexx Labs and Tyson are among companies expected to report results before the market open. Disney signaled in November that profitability will take a hit of hundreds of millions of dollars in the quarter, due to marketing expenses tied to the release of the film Avatar: Fire and Ash and the launch of the Destiny cruise ship. Earnings from Palantir and NXP Semi follow later in the day. 

European stocks were weaker in early trade but have since returned to a positive footing, Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% and just a few points away from its all-time-high. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Pandora jumps as much as 9.9% as silver prices extend their slide.
• European miners fall as copper extends a slump from a record, while gold and silver fall again.
• Julius Baer shares fall as much as 5% after reporting lower profit. KBW said the results were “mixed and messy” and that revenue missed the consensus estimate because of “mild weakness across all key lines.”
• European oil stocks fall along with crude prices after OPEC+ kept March output plans unchanged and geopolitical risk eased, with President Donald Trump saying Washington is talking with Iran.
• BFF Bank shares slide as much as 33% after the Italian financial services firm cut its 2026 outlook and announced a change in CEO.
• European chip stocks fall, tracking declines in Asian and US peers, as momentum trades unwind globally along with gold and silver.
• Carl Zeiss Meditec shares slip as much as 2.4% after Barclays downgraded its rating on the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing continued downside risks which are only “partially priced into the stock.”
• Auction Technology Group shares drop as much as 11% as FitzWalter Capital says it will not make another offer for the London-listed firm after its 400p per share bid was rejected last week.
• Pharming shares sink as much as 20% after the FDA requested additional data as part of the Dutch biopharmaceutical company’s supplemental new drug application for Joenja in children with a rare primary immunodeficiency known as APDS.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks retreated for a second session as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, with high-flying technology names and shares linked to precious metals leading an early selloff in a data-heavy week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped as much as 2.1%, the most since Nov. 18. Tech-heavy benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan fared worse and the Hang Seng Tech Index lost more than 3% in Hong Kong. An Asian gauge of the materials sector was down 3.6% as gold declined further following Friday’s plunge that was its biggest in more than a decade, and silver whipsawed in choppy trading. Stocks in Indonesia also resumed their selloff Monday, weighed by weaker commodity prices, complicating efforts by regulators to shore up confidence in Southeast Asia’s biggest equities market. Japanese equities outperformed as exporters got a boost from a decline in the yen. Meanwhile, Indian stocks tumbled during Sunday’s special session following a budget proposal to hike taxes on equity derivatives trades. In the week ahead, traders will be watching for central bank decisions in Australia and India, while Indonesia is due to release gross domestic product figures.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is down 0.1% after an overnight bid faltered. The euro and pound sit near the top of the G-10 leaderboard but still have some way to go to claw back Friday’s losses versus the greenback.

In rates, Treasuries are off session highs, hold small gains led by long-end tenors, with support from bigger rally in gilts. TSYs are higher by 5 ticks with yields 1-2bps lower across the curve amid a big flight to safety amid cascading margin calls, especially in Korea. Front-end yields are little changed with long-end tenors about 1bp richer, flattening 2s10s spread by around 1bp. US 10-year near 4.23% trails UK counterpart by about 1bp. Bunds are down 7 ticks and gilts up 27 as the slump in commodities helps underpin the latter. US session highlights include manufacturing PMIs and a speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic. Treasury coupon auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year supply, starting Feb. 10; department is scheduled to release quarterly borrowing estimates at 3pm

In commodities, WTI oil futures are down around 5% amid positive recent geopolitical developments surrounding Russia/Ukraine and Iran. Bitcoin is now up 1.8%, after looking like at one point it could make a run at the April low. 

US economic calendar includes January final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and January ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Bostic (12:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%,
• Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed,
• DAX +0.2%,
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.22%
• VIX +1.7 points at 19.11
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1187.5,
• euro +0.1% at $1.1867
• WTI crude -4.6% at $62.22/barrel

Top Overnight News

• House lawmakers are returning to Washington today to pass a funding deal that Trump worked out with Democrats last week. Approval would fund the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks, and the rest of the government through Sept. 30. BBG
• US Senate voted 71-29 to pass the USD 1.2tln government funding deal, and the House is expected to vote as soon as Monday on the plan after a brief government shutdown.
• Trump launches a strategic critical-minerals stockpile with $12 billion in seed money to insulate manufacturers from supply shocks.
• The venture, dubbed Project Vault, will marry $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank to procure and store minerals for manufacturers: BBG
• Iran signaled it hopes diplomatic efforts to avert a war with the US will bear fruit within days, after Trump said he is hopeful “we’ll make a deal.” BBG
• Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion this year through a mix of debt and equity to expand cloud capacity. BBG
• Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair is reigniting debate over the central bank’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox that it should be “as lean as possible.” BBG
• Trump said Fed Chair nominee Warsh may get Democrat votes, and he hopes that Warsh will lower interest rates. In relevant news, Trump said on Friday that Warsh did not commit to cutting rates and he will probably talk about cutting rates with Warsh, while Trump also stated that Warsh will cut rates without White House pressure.
• China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly improved in January, with the PMI rising to 50.3 from 50.1 a month earlier, according to a private survey. BBG
•  Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's party is likely to score a landslide victory in next week's lower house election, a survey by the Asahi newspaper showed, heightening the chance the country will continue to pursue big spending and tax cuts. RTRS
• Narendra Modi unveiled a budget aimed at shielding India’s economy from Trump’s tariffs and providing fresh backing for strategic sectors such as rare earths, critical minerals and chips. Bond yields rose to a one-year high on the government’s record debt-sale plan. BBG
• Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington, signalling a de-escalation of tensions with an OPEC member, while a stronger dollar also weighed on prices. RTRS
• SpaceX is in advanced talks to combine with xAI, people familiar said. The two firms could announce an agreement as soon as this week. BBG
• Fed's Bowman (voter) said on Friday that she supported a rate pause as inflation remains elevated, while she added that downside risks to the labour market have not diminished and that policy is modestly restrictive. Bowman also said that they should not imply that they expect to maintain the current stance of policy for an extended period of time, and noted she projected three rate cuts for 2026 in the December SEPs.
• Trump picked Brett Matusmoto to head the BLS: WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump warned of a very substantial response if Canada enacts a trade agreement with China, while he added that the US does not want China to take over Canada, which would happen with the deal that they are looking to make.
• South Korean Industry Minister Kim said they will speed up the implementation of investment legislation after returning from talks with the US, which he said cleared up misunderstandings regarding tariffs.
• EU industry association said on Friday that China proposed final anti-subsidy duties on EU dairy products at lower levels than in provisional duties with the final Chinese anti-subsidy tariffs on EU dairy products to go up to 11.7% vs. a maximum 42.7% in provisional duties.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured amid several recent bearish themes, including the partial US government shutdown and surprise contraction in Chinese official PMIs over the weekend, while sentiment was also not helped by the recent historic collapse in precious metals and with tech-related weakness after reports that NVIDIA's plan to invest USD 100bln OpenAI stalled. ASX 200 retreated with underperformance in the mining sector after a tumble in metal prices, including last Friday's biggest intraday drop for gold in four decades, while sentiment was not helped by wide consensus for a looming RBA rate hike. Nikkei 225 initially bucked the trend with early support from a weaker currency and with the Takaichi trade in play after a poll showed that the ruling LDP is likely on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this upcoming Sunday. However, the index gradually wiped out its gains and more alongside the broad risk-off mood across the region. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered after disappointing PMI data over the weekend, which showed official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory, while the private sector RatingDog manufacturing PMI data matched estimates and continued to show an expansion, but failed to inspire risk sentiment. Furthermore, Chinese telecom names were among the worst performers after Beijing notified about raising telecom services VAT to 9% from 6%.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said in a speech on Saturday that the yen’s recent depreciation boosted exporters and returns from the government’s foreign exchange fund, while she failed to address concerns regarding the effect on consumer prices. However, she attempted to clarify on Sunday that she was referring solely to the need to build an economic structure that can withstand currency fluctuations, and not to stress the advantages of a weaker currency.
• Japan’s ruling LDP party is likely to win a landslide victory and exceed a majority of 233 seats, while the ruling bloc may win more than 300 seats in the 465-seat parliamentary snap election on February 8th, according to an Asahi survey.
• Chinese President Xi called for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status, according to FT.
• India increased infrastructure spending in its annual budget with the capital spending target for the upcoming fiscal year lifted by around 9% to INR 12.2tln, while it proposed to boost manufacturing in strategic sectors including rare earths and semiconductors, as well as proposed a tax holiday up to 2047 for foreign cloud companies making data centre investments in India. Furthermore, it strongly emphasised fiscal restraint and targeted reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% (+/-1%) from 56% by 2030/2031 and estimates the fiscal deficit will decline to 4.3% from 4.4% of GDP, while it is to raise the Securities Transaction Tax on futures and options trading.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened broadly on the backfoot, but have since gradually moved higher to display a mixed picture. European sectors are mixed. Insurance leads whilst Basic Resources and Energy are the clear laggards, driven by significant pressure across the underlying commodities space.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer said the UK should consider re-entering talks for a defence pact with the EU, while he added that Europe needs to step up and do more to defend itself in certain times, according to The Guardian.
• UK and Japan agreed to deepen defence and security cooperation.

Central Banks

• BoJ's Summary of opinions noted that one member said financial conditions remain accommodative even after a rate hike in December. One member said no need to worry too much about impact on corporate profits as long as rate hike pace is not too fast. One member said appropriate to continue raising policy rate if economic and price projections materialise. A member said current financial conditions still significantly accommodative judging from economic strength and fallout from recent weak yen. A member said if overseas rate environments change this year, there is risk BOJ may unintentionally fall behind a curve. A member said that the bank has been examining response of economic activity and prices and financial conditions to each rate hike and has been raising the policy interest rate, while it is appropriate for the bank to continue to do so. One member said BoJ should raise the policy rate at intervals of a few months. One member said some indicators of long-term inflation expectations have already started to show stability.
• ECB SAFE: "Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook.". Firms reported a net tightening in bank loan interest rates and in other loan conditions related to both price and non-price factors. Financing needs rose modestly, accompanied by a small perceived decline in availability. Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook. The use of artificial intelligence is widespread among euro area firms, though most firms use it very infrequently or moderately.

FX

• The DXY is essentially flat and trades within a very narrow 92.17-97.29 range. Newsflow over the weekend has been light from a Dollar perspective, so attention will be on a data-packed week ahead (incl. ISMs, PMIs & jobs data) and on developments related to the current partial US government shutdown. On the latter point, lawmakers managed to work out a deal on Friday – the House is now set to vote on either Monday or Tuesday; House Speaker Johnson predicts the partial shutdown will end by Tuesday.
• G10s are mostly losing vs the USD (ex-GBP & EUR), which are currently incrementally firmer. Nothing is really driving things for the GBP this morning (PMIs were revised a touch higher). In Europe, EZ PMIs were broadly subject to mild upward revisions, and this was reflected in the EZ-wide figure – nonetheless, it still remains in contractionary territory. CHF initially flat, but now underperforms as the risk tone improves.
• Focus this morning has also been on the Aussie & Kiwi, which are currently posting mild losses vs the USD. Downside comes amidst the continuation of pressure seen in underlying metals prices; XAU -4.5% this morning. From a central banking perspective, the RBA is set to give a policy announcement on Tuesday. Markets currently price in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike, a recent shift from expectations of a pause – traders cite strong jobs data and inflation remaining above target.
• Volatile trade for USD/JPY. Initially gapped higher (154.84) and gradually rose towards a session peak (155.51) within an hour, before paring that move. Since, trade has been rangebound. The earlier bout of weakness in the JPY comes after Japanese press circulated comments via PM Takaichi, where she seemingly talked up the benefits of a weaker JPY – but this was later clarified by the PM. On the subject of Takaichi, recent polls suggest that the ruling LDP is likely on course for a landslide victory at the snap election this upcoming Sunday. In more detail, Asahi reported that the LDP-JIP coalition could “secure more than 300 seats”, far surpassing a simple majority of 233.

Fixed Income

• JGBs began the week on the backfoot, down to a 131.32 low, amid the latest election polling. Asahi's poll has the LDP on track for a standalone majority and, when combined with JIP, to over 300 seats and by extension within reach of the 310 super-majority level in the 465-seat Lower House. However, the pressure proved somewhat fleeting given the global risk-off move and as XAU remains for sale, fixed has benefited. Action that been sufficient to lift JGBs into the green with gains of c. 10 ticks and the 10yr yield below 2.25%; however, the 40yr yield remains firmer and holds at highs of 3.94%.
• USTs are being dictated by the risk tone. Just off a 112-02 peak, firmer by c. five ticks as things stand. The tone is driven by the continued pullback in metals, weak Chinese PMIs, NVIDIA reporting, the likely temporary US government shutdown and as we await the first remarks from Trump's Fed Chair pick and any potential SCOTUS update re. tariffs. While there is no schedule for the latter two points, today's docket does have the S&P Final Manufacturing PMI and then the ISM figure.
• EGBs are contained this morning. Bunds found haven allure overnight and got to a 128.36 peak, with gains of 20 ticks at best. However, the benchmark has gradually come off best into the European morning as the region's risk tone inches higher, and equities go from being well in the red to somewhat mixed. No move seen to Final Manufacturing PMIs. As it stands, Bunds are near-enough unchanged but around 10 ticks off their 128.04 trough.
• Gilts lead this morning. Catching up to the overnight bid seen in peers. Since, in limited newsflow but as the tone continues to recover, Gilts have pulled back from their 91.21 peak to just above the figure, though it continues to outperform with gains of c. 20 ticks. Not driving price action but a narrative to keep an eye on is a piece in The Telegraph that Labour's Rayner is constructing a war chest and has begun offering Cabinet roles to her supporters, as part of a plot to succeed PM Starmer.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have slumped at the start of the new week following geopolitical headlines over the weekend that have eased rising tensions in recent weeks. Axios' Ravid reported that a US-Iran meeting could take place this week, after weeks of potential signs of a strike in Iran. US President Trump also told reporters that Iran was seriously talking with Washington. WTI and Brent began trade just shy of USD 65/bbl and USD 68/bbl, respectively, before steadily falling lower throughout the APAC session to a low of USD 61.44/bbl and USD 65.45/bbl as markets price out the potential of further escalation. Benchmarks have rebounded slightly but remain near session lows.
• Nat Gas futures continue to pare back the rise in prices following the Arctic storm, with Dutch TTF now trading below EUR 35/MWh after topping at EUR 43.38/MWh at the peak of the storm worries. Overnight, Russia announced that it will permit gasoline exports for fuel producers through to the end of July to avoid overstocking.
• Precious metals continue to slide, with spot gold and silver falling as much as 10% and 16%, respectively. The initial selloff was initiated early last Friday on the possibility (and then confirmation) of Kevin Warsh being announced as the new Fed Chair.
• During the APAC session, XAU steadily trended lower as Chinese participants took the opportunity to lock in profits, falling just shy of USD 4400/oz. As the European session continues, the yellow metal continues to rebound and is returning back to USD 4700/oz; but ultimately, remains lower by over 4%. Similarly, after falling to a trough of USD 71.40/oz, silver prices have rebounded to USD 80/oz.
• Alongside precious metals, 3M LME Copper gapped below USD 13k/t and drove to a low of USD 12.43k/t, weighed on by the broader risk-off tone and weak Chinese PMIs. Copper prices remain below USD 13k/t but have recently rebounded just shy of session highs of USD 12.95k/t.
• Turkey raises lower price limits on some gold and silver funds.
• OPEC Secretariat receives updated compensation plans from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
• Eight OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to maintain the pause in oil output hikes in March.
• US President Trump said he welcomes investment from China and India in Venezuelan oil, while he announced that they have already made a deal for India to buy Venezuelan oil.
• Russia will permit gasoline exports for fuel producers through to end-July to avoid overstocking, although it extended the ban on exports for non-producers, as well as the ban on diesel and other types of fuel for non-producers until end-July.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin said that they have narrowed their differences on some issues with Ukraine but not on complex issues, next round of trilateral talks on Ukraine will take place in Abu Dubai on Wednesday and Thursday.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for substantive discussions and is interested in results, while he announced the next trilateral peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine will take place in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4th-5th.
• US envoy Witkoff said he held constructive talks with Russian special envoy Dmitriev on Saturday in Florida as part of the US effort to end the war in Ukraine.
• Russia’s Medvedev said victory will come soon in the Ukraine war, but it is equally important to think about how to prevent new conflicts, while he also commented that US President Trump is an effective leader who seeks peace and that they never found the two nuclear submarines Trump spoke about deploying closer to Russia.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that if the US launches a war, it won’t stay confined to Iran and would likely escalate into a broader regional conflict, according to Iran International. It was separately reported that Iran renewed its threat to strike Israel in which Iranian army chief Major-General Amir Hatami warned that “If the enemy makes a mistake, it will without doubt endanger its own security, the security of the region, and the security of the Zionist regime”.
• US officials said a meeting between the US and Iran could take place in Turkey this week, according to Axios’s Ravid.
• Iran's foreign Ministry said US President Trump has not set a deadline for negotiations, via Alhadath on X.
• Iran announces it has summoned all the EU ambassadors in the Islamic Republic to protect the bloc's listing of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard as a terror group.
• Persian Gulf states are warning US officials that Tehran's missiles program remains capable of inflicting significant damage to US interest in the region, via X.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Jan F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 51.9
• 10:00 am: United States Jan ISM Manufacturing, est. 48.5, prior 47.9

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to February with another big sell-off in Gold (-5%) and Silver (-10%) overnight, and a partial US government shutdown that isn't as severe as the record one before Xmas, and is expected to get resolved soon. Nevertheless it's typical of the 2026 constant stream of complicated news flow. This follows a January that managed to both shock and awe in various ways, yet still delivered broad based gains across all global assets in our monthly performance review when measured in USD terms—a genuinely rare occurrence. It was perhaps fitting then, that the month ended with extraordinary volatility: Silver saw its largest daily fall since 1980 (36% at the intraday lows,  26.3% at the close), while Gold recorded its biggest one day decline since 2013 ( 8.95%). With the overnight moves, Silver is now around $5 below its real adjusted level from 1790—something we explored in last Monday’s CoTD here. As we noted, even incorporating the dramatic 1980 boom and bust and the recent surge, Silver has failed to outperform inflation over more than 230 years of data. So while I’ve long been a bit of a gold bug given my strong views on the inflationary consequences of fiat money, the recent run up in precious metals feels to have an enormous speculative element. Friday’s moves, almost certainly driven by positioning and margin dynamics, only reinforced that impression.

Volatility began to build on Thursday, but the clear catalyst for Friday’s sell off appeared to be news in the early UK hours that Kevin Warsh had secured the nomination for Fed Chair. Warsh is known to be more hawkish on the balance sheet than other candidates, pushing back against the prevailing debasement narrative that has supported precious metals. That said, price action had long since detached from any sane discussion on debasement, but it often takes only a small ripple to trigger a broader correction, especially when there is leverage around. Our economics team explored the implications of Warsh’s nomination in detail on Friday here. The Dollar responded to the news with its strongest day since May, while EM assets—after an excellent month—saw sharp reversals across equities and FX.

Henry has just published his usual performance review here, and despite the late month turbulence it was still a very strong January for global assets. Silver (+18.9%) and Gold (+13%) topped the performance tables, joined by oil (+16.2%), which posted its biggest monthly gain in four years. Outside our formal performance review, it’s also worth noting that Bitcoin is currently down about -14% year to date after a difficult few days. It now sits around -40% below its October 2025 peak and back at levels first breached in November 2024. Over that same period, Gold has doubled.

Elsewhere in Asia, Brent crude futures are down by -5.4%, also being impacted by the commodities deleveraging and news that Washington is in talks with Iran. S&P 500 futures are down by -1.21% and NASDAQ 100 (-1.59%) and DAX futures (-1.02%) are also lower. The KOSPI is at the forefront of the regional equity declines, plummeting around -5.0% as major chipmakers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, saw their shares drop between -5.70% and -6.50% respectively. Moreover, the Hang Seng (-2.70%) and the Hang Seng Tech index (-3.87%) are also experiencing significant retreats as an AI-driven sell-off accelerates. In other markets, the Nikkei (-1.02%) is also trading in negative territory, with the CSI (-1.40%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.64%) also declining amid a broader regional downturn. So a pretty uncomfortable start to February.

The coming week will revolve around a dense run of US macro releases, with the January jobs report set to dominate attention on Friday. We also have the ISM surveys, consumer sentiment and the latest Treasury’s quarterly refunding details. Central banks be in focus with decisions due from the ECB, the BoE (both Thursday) and the RBA (tomorrow). Elsewhere we have the latest global PMIs and inflation in Europe. Corporate earnings include Alphabet (Wednesday), Amazon (Thursday) and AMD (Tuesday). Remember that Meta (+6.56%) and Microsoft (-8.50%) saw big moves in either direction last week with both having a 10% plus intra-day rise and decline respectively. 

Looking at more detail into the week ahead, Friday’s employment report is the highlight, with forecasts pointing to another modest payroll gain (consensus at +50k and +37k for headline and private respectively) and no change in either the unemployment rate (4.4%) or the pace of hourly earnings growth. Ahead of that, the JOLTS data tomorrow and the ADP report on Wednesday will give early clues on labour market momentum. The week also brings the manufacturing ISM on Monday and the services ISM mid week, followed by the University of Michigan’s February sentiment survey on Friday. Fixed income investors will also be watching Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement and today’s Treasury borrowing estimate closely.

Central banks will remain a major theme as well. The ECB and Bank of England both meet on Thursday, and neither is expected to adjust policy, with the ECB likely extending its on hold stance for a fifth straight meeting and the BoE seen keeping Bank Rate unchanged once again. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to stand pat tomorrow. Additional colour on financial conditions will come from the Fed’s senior loan officer survey today and the ECB’s latest bank lending survey tomorrow.

Across Europe, the flow of flash January inflation reports continues, with France tomorrow and Italy and the broader euro area following on Wednesday. Sweden publishes its CPI on Friday. Several Eurozone economies will also release December retail sales and trade figures, while Germany rounds out the week with its factory orders and industrial production numbers. It'll be interesting to see if they show continued evidence of the fiscal stimulus.

The corporate earnings calendar remains active, with attention in the US turning to two members of the Mag-7 — Alphabet on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday — alongside a range of other tech firms such as Palantir, AMD and Qualcomm. Major healthcare names are also reporting, including Eli Lilly and AbbVie in the US and Novartis and Novo Nordisk in Europe. Broader US earnings include updates from PepsiCo, Walt Disney and Uber. In Europe, several banks are scheduled to report, while in Japan, Toyota, Sony and Tokyo Electron will be among the key companies releasing results.

Over the weekend, data revealed that China's official PMI for January fell back below 50 again at 49.3, down from December's 50.1, and below expectations. The Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for nine of the past ten months, reinforcing concerns that December's data may have been an anomaly rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

Simultaneously, the official non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.4 in January (compared to the expected 50.3), down from 50.2 the previous month, marking the lowest level since December 2022. This decline was attributed to weak post-holiday demand, cautious consumer spending, and ongoing challenges in the property sector. Conversely, a private survey presented a more positive outlook, indicating that China’s manufacturing activity improved to 50.3 in January (compared to 50.1 in December), and marking the strongest level since October.

Recapping last week, the biggest news happened on Friday when Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his Fed nominee. The confirmation led to a cross-asset sell-off amidst expectations that Warsh would be more hawkish than other candidates – particularly on the balance sheet. So that led to a global risk-off mood and triggered a sharp pullback in precious metals. On Friday gold (-8.95%) posted its largest daily decline since 2013 (-1.87% over the week). And silver registered its largest drop since 1980 at -26.36% (-17.44% over the week). To give some perspective, earlier in the week gold posted its best 8-day run since the GFC, rising to $5,417/oz on Wednesday, while silver also reached a new high of $116.70/oz before ending the week at $85.20. So some remarkable volatility playing out in precious metals. 

Equities had also advanced earlier in the week, with the S&P 500 briefly surpassing the 7000 threshold on Wednesday, before ending the week +0.34% higher at 6,939 (-0.43% on Friday). The reversal in equities was partly driven by Microsoft results, which saw the software giant’s shares fall -9.99% on Thursday. Combined with the Warsh news, that left the NASDAQ slightly down on the week (-0.17%, -0.94% on Friday), although the Mag-7 managed to outperform (+1.02%, -0.32% on Friday), supported by Meta’s +10.40% surge on Thursday after its own results suggested AI was boosting ad revenue growth.

In bond markets, Trump’s Warsh nomination added to the steepening in the US Treasuries curve. While 2yr yields fell -3.7bps on Friday (-7.1bps over the week) amid the risk-off mood, 10yr (+0.4bps, +1.1bps over the week) and 30yr (+1.9bps, +4.6bps over the week) moved higher. On Wednesday, the FOMC had held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% as expected, with Chair Powell offering little near-term guidance but suggesting that the next move is still likely to be a cut.

We also saw sizeable volatility in other asset classes. In FX, the dollar index fell by -0.62% over the week, despite a +0.74% rebound on Friday helped by Trump’s Warsh nomination. Elsewhere, oil prices continued to climb higher, with Brent (+7.30%, -0.03% Friday) rising to its highest level since July amid rising concerns that the US may pursue military action against Iran, with Trump saying that the next US attack would be “far worse” than the strikes last June if Iran did not reach a deal.

Finally in Europe, the mood was more positive with the STOXX 600 ending the week +0.44% higher (+0.64% on Friday), though the DAX (-1.45%, +0.94% Friday) and CAC (-0.20%, +0.68%) retreated after weak results from the likes of SAP and LVMH. We saw mixed economic data, with a soft German IFO expectations reading on Monday (89.5 s 90.3 expected) but a stronger Euro Area Q4 GDP on Friday (+0.3% q/q vs +0.2% q/q expected). We also got stronger than expected German HICP print (+2.1% vs +2.0% expected). Despite this, yields on 10yr bunds (-6.3bps, +0.3bps Friday) and OATs (-5.6bps, +0.6bps Friday) moved lower over the week

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 08:37

'Out Of Stock': As Lunar New Year Looms, AsiaPac Dip-Buyers Emerge In Gold

"I came to buy because the price of gold dropped today," said Ng Beng Choo, a 70-something retiree who arrived early in the morning at the headquarters of Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), the city-state's only bank offering physical gold products to retail investors.

Bloomberg reports that clients and walk-in buyers crowded into a dedicated lounge for bullion transactions. 

Overnight, after an initial puke (catch-down) in precious metals, gold prices are bouncing back, as it appears retail investors are 'buying the dip' across AsiaPac.

The extent to which Asian investors buy the dips will play a key role in determining the direction of the market from here.

While the Shanghai benchmark price extended losses after the market opened, it was still trading at a premium over the international price. 

Over the weekend, buyers flocked to the country’s biggest bullion marketplace in Shenzhen to stock up on gold jewelry and bars ahead of the Chinese New Year.

“The combination of heightened volatility and the proximity of the Lunar New Year will prompt traders to trim positions and reduce risk,” said Zijie Wu, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co.

At the same time - particularly in peak buying season - the pullback in prices is likely to support retail demand in China, he said.

Rather than seek to sell, many retail investors appeared to be trying to buy the dip in gold, which fell to near $4,400 an ounce on Monday after Friday's seemingly more technical (ands spectacular) liquidation.

“In my career it’s definitely the wildest that I have seen,” said Dominik Sperzel, the head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, a leading bullion refiner.

“Parabolic,” “frenzied” and “untradeable” were all descriptions of the market on Friday, wrote Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA.

January 2026, she said, would go down as “the most volatile month in precious metals history.”

But, "fundamental changes played only a minor role in the recent developments,” said Dominik Sperzel, head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals.

In silver, “limited market liquidity and high leverage significantly amplified the downward momentum,” he said.

“The bottom line is that the trade was way too crowded,” said Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and now an independent market commentator, adding that a reluctance to take further risks would constrain market liquidity.

Bloomberg also reports that in central Sydney, a queue of people snaked out into the street from an ABC Bullion outlet near Martin Place. 

“I lost a lot of money” on Friday, but “tomorrow’s a new day,” said Alex, a man in his 20s who was lined up outside the Sydney store to buy bullion, declining to give his full name.

In Thailand, where gold bars and jewelry are popular, people keep their holdings rather than selling off, Thanapisal Koohapremkit, Chief Executive Officer at Thai brokerage Globlex Securities Co. said.

“It’s still a buying trend in here in Thailand,” said Kuhapremkit.

“ They’re holding the old position and then just hold and see.”

Retail buyers may be betting that the main drivers of gold’s ascent - an increasingly unpredictable Trump and the debasement trade where investors avoid currencies and sovereign bonds - are still intact.

That optimism was shared by Michael Hsueh, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG,, which said in a note on Monday it was sticking with its forecast for gold to get to $6,000 an ounce.

(1) We argue that the adjustment in precious metal prices overshot the significance of its ostensible catalysts. Moreover, investor intentions in precious (official, institutional, individual) have not likely changed for the worse as of yet.

(2) Gold's thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors' rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed. The conditions do not appear primed for a sustained reversal in gold prices, and we draw some contrasts between today's circumstance and the context for gold's weakness in the 1980s and 2013.

(3) We see signs that China has been a prominent driver of precious metal investment flows. Thus, the rise in SGE premiums late last week is an important sign of amplified buying interest in gold. Together these suggest the rationale for a positive outlook has not changed from that described last week (see chart above)

Finally, returning to where we started, Bloomberg reports that at UOB, many customers who hadn’t pre-ordered were disappointed.

All products from MKS PAMP SA, one of the world’s most recognized bullion brands, were sold out, while people who arrived late were out of luck. 

“Due to overwhelming response, the buy queue tickets have all been fully issued for the day,” according to notices posted around the UOB headquarters. “Your patience is appreciated.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 08:25

Oil Prices Tumble 5% Amid Signs Of US-Iran De-escalation

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Oil prices dropped by more than 5% on hopes that U.S.–Iran tensions may be easing.

• President Trump suggested Iran is engaged in serious talks, dampening fears of military escalation.

• Analysts said broader market weakness and election-year politics added to the downward pressure on crude.

Oil prices slumped by 5% early on Monday from a five-month high at the end of last week, after the most recent tensions between the United States and Iran appeared to have eased.  

This morning, the Brent Crude international benchmark was back to $65 per barrel, down from $70 it hit last week when U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that a “massive armada” of U.S. Navy ships is headed to the Persian Gulf.

Brent Crude prices had slipped by 4.83% to $65.99 on Monday morning, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading down by 5.11% at $61.92.

Last week, markets reacted to the renewed tension in the world’s most important oil-producing and exporting region, and oil prices soared.

However, this weekend, President Trump said that he believes Iran is “seriously” talking with the U.S., adding he hopes that negotiations could lead to an “acceptable” deal.

President Trump told a reporter aboard Air Force One that he certainly can’t tell them if a military strike is still an option.

“But we do have very big, powerful ships heading in that direction,” President Trump said, but added, “I hope they negotiate something that's acceptable.”

“They should do that, but I don't know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us,” the president said, referring to Iran.

Trump says he has quietly imposed a deadline on diplomacy with Iran - just as Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt scramble to keep talks alive. When pressed by reporters, he refused to answer any specifics in terms of planning.

When Israel, followed by the US, attacked Iran last June in the 12-day war, it too was apparently based on an internal timeline only the White House knew about (and presumably Israel) .

Tehran leadership's working theory seems to be that Iran absorbs heavy blows but responds with unprecedented regional retaliation, including mass-casualty strikes on US forces, to shatter Trump’s apparent belief that war with Iran would look anything like a Venezuela-style operation.

Confronted with that reality, the calculation goes, Trump would be forced to scale back his maximalist demands and reset the parameters.

Whether Iran can actually strike that hard, or survive the scale of US retaliation that would follow, remains an open question.

With the risk premium unwinding, oil prices retreated on Monday from the five-month highs seen last Thursday.

“A broader correction across financial markets has added to the downward momentum,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.

According to Saxo Bank’s analysts, “With the President facing weak poll numbers, a military escalation that risks pushing gasoline prices sharply higher appears unlikely ahead of the November midterm elections, where affordability and his time in office are set to dominate voter focus.”
 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 08:05

SpaceX In Advanced Talks To Combine With xAI: Report

First Reuters and Bloomberg last week, and now Bloomberg reports again early Monday that Elon Musk's SpaceX is in advanced talks to combine with his artificial intelligence firm xAI. The move appears to be a consolidation, positioning Musk's empire for the "data centers in space" theme as Starship approaches commercialization.

The financial media outlet says the potential SpaceX-xAI deal reporting is based on people familiar with the matter and has not been confirmed by Musk.

NEW IN: Elon Musk's xAI is reportedly in talks to merge with SpaceX ahead of a potential 2026 IPO. pic.twitter.com/tePpUxCosQ

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) January 29, 2026

Here's more from the report:

The rocket and satellite maker and the artificial intelligence firm have informed some of their investors about the plans, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. They could announce an agreement as soon as this week, some of the people said.

Deliberations are ongoing and talks could still drag on longer or fall apart, the people said.

We've seen this before, where Reuters and other MSM outlets have jumped the gun or published factually incorrect reporting on Musk's empire, prompting him to blast them for "fake news" on his X platform. So far, no denial.

Let's circle back to Bloomberg's report last week, in which it said: "xAI could benefit enormously from computing capacity provided by SpaceX's data centers in orbit, if the company can make the engineering work."

Bloomberg has also reported that SpaceX is planning an IPO as soon as June, though nothing has been confirmed. If so, it would roughly coincide with Musk's birthday. The IPO could raise up to $50 billion for SpaceX, potentially making it the largest IPO to ever.

What has been clear to ZeroHedge readers is that the next major theme, data centers in space, is coming quick. We've already explained how to position in this theme: Data Centers in Space Are Coming: Here's How to Profit.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 07:45

FAA To Allow 44 SpaceX Starship Launches From Kennedy Space Center Per Year

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will allow SpaceX to launch its behemoth Starship from Kennedy Space Center in Florida 44 times per year.

SpaceX's mega rocket Starship is prepared for a test flight from Starbase, Texas, on May 26, 2025. AP Photo/Eric Gay

That decision was released on Jan. 30 in an environmental impact report, which also recommended that the company conduct 88 landings: 44 for the Starship spacecraft and 44 for the Super Heavy booster.

The FAA makes this recommendation while noting concerns from Brevard County residents about noise, especially sonic booms during late-night operations; beach access related to the launches; and the possibility that the National Park Service could lose revenue due to the increased need to close parts of the Canaveral National Seashore.

Impacts on commercial flights, especially international ones, due to ground stops or re-routing were also acknowledged.

The administration also noted that SpaceX still needs to obtain FAA launch license approval and complete mitigation work before those new launches can begin.

Once that happens, these launches and landings would commence at Launch Complex 39-A, continuing that pad’s historic legacy of hosting the Saturn V moon rocket, the Space Shuttle, and the SpaceX Falcon 9.

Construction on an assembly facility specifically for the vehicle, which SpaceX called a “Gigabay,” is underway at the space center, as well as construction of the Starship launch tower at Launch Complex 39-A.

As those plans come to fruition, Falcon 9 operations will be relocated south to Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, where NASA’s SpaceX Crew-12 mission is scheduled to launch to the International Space Station in February.

Lee Eckert, senior mission manager for human spaceflight mission management at SpaceX, told the media on Jan. 30 that the company looks to move all Falcon 9 operations, including crewed launches, to Space Launch Complex 40 going forward, allowing Launch Complex 39-A to focus on Falcon Heavy and Starship launches.

Eckert said SpaceX hopes to begin launching Starships from Cape Canaveral later this year.

But Kennedy Space Center will not be the only place Starships launch in Florida. Construction is also underway further south at Space Launch Complex 37 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, following approval from the U.S. Air Force in December. A rendering shared by SpaceX shows two launch towers occupying the space.

“With three launch pads in Florida, Starship will be ready to support America’s national security and Artemis goals as the world’s premiere spaceport continues to evolve to enable airport-like operations,” SpaceX said on X.

Meanwhile, SpaceX will continue its Starship development and operations at Starbase, Texas.

SpaceX conducted a total of 109 launches from Florida in 2025, most of which occurred at Space Launch Complex 40.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 07:20

Light At The End Of The Tunnel Emerges For US East After Weeks Of Winter Madness

A sharp reversal in US natural gas futures was seen early Monday after skyrocketing prices in the second half of January, when dangerously cold air and a major winter storm triggered freeze-offs across critical NatGas infrastructure. The weather-driven supply disruptions coincided with a spike in heating demand, unleashing stress on power grids across much of the eastern US and driving NatGas spot prices sharply higher before the pullback, as well as power prices...

The front-month NatGas contract plunged as much as 17% to $3.620 per million British thermal units in early Asian trading, erasing Friday's 11% gain after weeks of record-breaking cold.

New weather models show milder conditions across parts of the Lower 48 over the next two weeks.

There's some light at the end of the tunnel for the winter-weary East Coast.

A possible moderating trend during the week of Feb. 9! pic.twitter.com/DbflucI5qh

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) February 1, 2026

By mid-month, temperatures in the US are expected to revert to 30-year seasonal norms.

For our readers in Washington, DC... 

Let's recap weather and energy reporting over the last few weeks, in which we led the discussion on NatGas freeze-offs and power grid stress. It's clear that fossil fuel power generation saved many grids from collapse across the eastern US.

Recap:

• "Sleep Tight, America. We Got This": NatGas And Coal Power Plants Prevented Grid Collapse During Historic Winter Blast

• Wild Few Weeks For NatGas. Goldman Weighs In With Post-Winter Storm Energy Commentary

• NatGas Rips Higher As Arctic Blast Knocks 12% Of U.S. production Offline

• Power Diverted From Data Centers To Households Across PJM Network Amid Historic Freeze

Our takeaway from the record cold and severe winter weather is clear: the Trump administration's push to boost reliable fossil fuel power generation helped prevent grid collapse. Dispatchable coal and NatGas plants, some of which had been slated for early retirement under the Democratic Party's insane green-energy policies, proved essential in stabilizing power systems under extreme winter stress.

With nuclear capacity additions unlikely to be added to the grid until the 2030s, fossil fuels remain the backbone of the US economy and grid reliability. This latest weather episode reinforces an optically displeasing reality for radical-left Democrats: energy policy must prioritize reliability and resilience over toxic green ideology that appears to do more to self-sabotage the nation than improve life for everyone. Just look at the mess Europe is in.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 06:55

"Never Seen Risk Like This Before In My Career", Ed Dowd Warns

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in December we were “At the Beginning of Credit Destruction Cycle.” 

Renowned hedge fund BlackRock was the latest victim of credit destruction with this week’s headline that said, “BlackRock cuts value of private debt fund by 19%, waives fee.”

Dowd is right—again.

It’s going to get a lot worse, according to Dowd’s latest report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”  Dowd says, “This is a big call, and what is going to happen does not happen that often..."

"  We will try to call the bottom in the future, but right now, I have never seen risk like this before in my career. 

This has been unfolding. . .. I have not been wrong in the 2025 call.  The stock market did go up 17%, but the rest of the economy imploded.  Real estate started rolling over...

Unfortunately, because this is such a bubble because they kicked the can down the road . . . the odds of this happening fast have increased exponentially since the beginning of 2025.”

Dowd goes on to explain, “The three fundamental risks that we see for the US economy for 2026..."

"There are two internal risks and one external risk. 

The first risk is US housing crisis/white swan event.  Immigrants came in and filled the gap. 

That’s now stopped. . .. Deportations are going to continue over the next year to two years, and that is going to continue to put pressure on homes.  

Affordability is a disaster.  Incomes do not allow people to buy homes at these prices. 

The only way to correct this is home prices dropping 25% to 30% over the next two years.  That would set us up for a recovery.”

Dowd continues, “The second risk to the US economy is a stock market bubble..."

"The valuations are as bad as the Dot Com bubble. 

This is driven by the AI bubble, and we see the cracks are starting there. 

We expect that to pop sometime this year. 

The third risk is China. 

It is entering into the acute phase of its economic crisis. 

This is going to be a global contagion.  It will hurt Japan and South Korea, and this will spill over to the US. . .. It will be a liquidity crisis, and that is why we are bullish on the US dollar.”  (Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors.  It has shocking new and never before released details about how much trouble China is really in.)

Dowd goes on to point out, “We have a lot of headwinds coming at us in 2026..."

"We think the first problems will begin in the shadow banking system, which is private equity, private credit funds and all these non-depository financial institution loans commercial banks made over the last two years. (See BlackRock story above.)  

All their loan growth came from that source. 

There was no loan growth in commercial and industrial.  It was all in the shadow banking system.”

What is Dowd not worried about?  Despite the big gut punch in the gold and silver market on Friday, Dowd says:

“I am still bullish on gold and silver, and my target on gold by 2030 is $10,000 per ounce.  

It’s going to consolidate now.  Is it the end?  I don’t think so. 

There is a veracious appetite from big banks for gold and, in the case of silver, industrial users for the metal.”

There is much more in the 44-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd where he previews his latest report called US Economy Outlook 2026 for 1.31.26.

To get Dowd’s latest red-hot report called “US Economy Outlook 2026,” click here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 06:30

Waste Of The Day: NYC Healthcare Fund Is Out Of Cash

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander claims one of the city’s health insurance funds has “no path to solvency” after labor unions used it to cover pay raises, Weight Watchers and more.

Key facts: New York’s taxpayer-funded Health Insurance Stabilization Fund owes $3.1 billion to outside vendors and the city that it’s unable to pay. The actual amount is likely much higher because expenses from 2024 and 2025 have not been totaled yet, according to Lander’s Dec. 30 audit.

The fund was created in 1985 to help employees afford the city’s Group Health Insurance (GHI) plan, a more costly alternative to the older Health Insurance Plan (HIP).

The fund has since been used for several other purposes, which Lander claims is illegal. The city’s labor unions, in their response to the audit, argued the fund can be used for “any mutually agreed upon purpose” reached through collective bargaining.

From 2001 to 2024, the unions used $4.3 billion to fund pay raises, avoid layoffs and cover added benefits like dental and vision insurance. That included $1 billion in 2014 “to support wage increases and other economic items.” 

In 2024, the fund spent $166 million on additional benefits like Weight Watchers, Teladoc virtual doctors’ appointments and a mental health subsidy. However, most of that sum —$131.4 million — was for the city’s Psychotropic, Injectable, Chemotherapy & Asthma program, the audit found.

The audit claims the unions have known since 2018 that the fund was insolvent.

Since then, the fund’s cash balance has depleted almost entirely. In fiscal year 2019, the fund had $1.1 billion in cash available. But only $3 million was available as of 2024, when considering the cost of health care that has been provided but not yet paid for.

The fund’s shortfall cost the city an estimated $612 million in fiscal year 2025, according to Lander.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Background: The GHI plan, run by Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield, was replaced this year by a new plan run by UnitedHealthcare and EmblemHealth.

Lander was also replaced this year by newly elected Comptroller Mark Levine, who said on Jan. 2 that he was going to read the health-care audit “soon.” Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in a press conference that he takes the findings “seriously.”

Summary: There is no medicine that will be able to improve New York’s fiscal health if the city continues spending beyond its means.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 06:30

FTC Warns 42 Law Firms Over DEI Hiring

The Trump administration is still going after DEI - or 'diversity, equity and inclusion' (i.e. white people are the scourge of the earth) - this time, in Big Law. 

The office of the law firm Perkins Coie is seen in Washington, on April 10, 2025. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

On Friday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) sent letters to 42 law firms warning them about "potentially unfair and anticompetitive employment practices" involving DEI, after they all participated in an anti-white program run by "Diversity Lab," a "for-profit DEI-consultancy business." 

All of these firms recently participated in the Mansfield Certification program, according to public information. Mansfield Certification is a creation of the company Diversity Lab, a for-profit DEI-consultancy business, which claims to “write the unwritten rules” establishing common race and gender-based employment practices across the legal industry. To receive the certification, law firms must agree to follow certain of Diversity Lab’s DEI-based employment standards. Public information also suggests that they would meet regularly with Diversity Lab and their competitor law firms to discuss common implementation of Diversity Lab’s criteria.

According to the FTC, the letter recipients "are among the largest law firms in the United States, collectively employing over 50,000 attorneys subject to Diversity Lab's criteria." 

In order to qualify for Mansfield Certification, law firms must agree to consider talent pools for promotions and leadership opportunities that comprise at least 30% 'underrepresented' racial and other groups. 

As a result of the process, many firms have reportedly met the 30% benchmark for external hiring and internal promotion.

"Millions of American citizens participate in our economy both as workers and as consumers. The antitrust laws protect them from anticompetitive employer agreements in labor markets just as much as they do from anticompetitive seller agreements in product markets," reads the letter. 

Diversity Lab says the Mansfield program ensures "fair and equal" opportunity for all lawyers to advance to leadership roles, and focuses on "equal treatment, equal opportunity, and equal access." The program is pitched as an "inclusive sourcing process" rather than a diverse slate policy. 

The premise, of course, is that merit-based hiring is racist - yet they claim it's the exact opposite. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, the program does not dictate or require that underrepresented groups be selected for any leadership role or activity. Nor does adopting the initiative result in any individual being excluded from employment consideration on the basis of gender, race, or other demographic characteristics.

“Mansfield does not, explicitly or implicitly, ask employers or their decision-makers to make any selection or employment decision because of a demographic trait. As always, employment and advancement decisions remain outside of the scope of Mansfield and should be based solely on merit,” according to Diversity Lab.

The FTC letter cited an October 2024 statement from Diversity Lab, which claimed that more than 360 law firms earned Mansfield Certification in 2023-24.

The agency reminded law firms that unfair and anticompetitive employment practices also include collusion or unlawful coordination among entities regarding DEI metrics.

“Potentially anticompetitive collusion between law firms on DEI metrics can include quotas by which they agree to compose panels of job candidates based on race, sex, or other personal characteristics other than the candidate’s merit, or by which law firms agree to make final decisions about hiring and promotions based on those personal characteristics,” it said.

“Such agreements can distort competition for labor in legal professions, including along dimensions like hiring decisions, pay, and promotions.”

Ferguson warned that participation in the Mansfield program risks subjecting law firms to liability under civil rights laws. He asked the firms to review their relationship with Diversity Lab and other similar organizations.

Tackling DEI

Since assuming office, President Donald Trump has signed orders aimed at dismantling DEI policies.

On Jan. 20, he issued a presidential action titled “Ending Radical And Wasteful Government DEI Programs And Preferencing” with the objective of terminating all discriminatory programs, including illegal DEI and diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEIA) policies and practices in the federal government.

Trump signed another presidential action on Jan. 21—Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity.

DEI and DEIA policies “undermine our national unity, as they deny, discredit, and undermine the traditional American values of hard work, excellence, and individual achievement in favor of an unlawful, corrosive, and pernicious identity-based spoils system,” Trump wrote.

He ordered all agencies to “enforce our longstanding civil-rights laws and to combat illegal private-sector DEI preferences, mandates, policies, programs, and activities.”

In its statement, the FTC said the letters’ recipients are among the largest law firms in the country, collectively employing over 50,000 attorneys who are subject to Diversity Lab’s Mansfield criteria.

One of the law firms to whom the FTC letter was sent is Paul Weiss. In March last year, Trump issued a presidential action aimed at “addressing risks” from Paul Weiss, alleging that the law firm discriminates against its employees based on race and other categories banned by civil rights laws.

“Those who engage in blatant discrimination and other activities inconsistent with the interests of the United States should not have access to our Nation’s secrets nor be deemed responsible stewards of any Federal funds,” the president wrote.

Trump later agreed to drop the action after Paul Weiss pledged to eliminate DEI policies, including in hiring, and to provide $40 million in free legal services to support the administration’s initiatives.

Another law firm mentioned in the FTC letter, Latham & Watkins, also entered into a similar settlement with the Trump administration.

Law firm Perkins Coie, which sued the administration after being named in a presidential executive action, is included among the 42 law firms targeted in the FTC letter.

The Epoch Times reached out to Paul Weiss, Latham & Watkins, Perkins Coie, and Diversity Lab for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 05:45

US Approves New Massive Arms Deals For Israel, Saudis - Bypasses Congressional Review

Via The Cradle

On Friday, the US government authorized significant arms sales to Israel and Saudi Arabia, amounting to approximately $15.7 billion, as the White House continues to escalate threats of war against Iran.

The US State Department approved four arms packages for Israel totaling $6.67 billion, which includes a $3.8 billion deal for 30 Apache attack helicopters and a $1.98 billion sale of 3,250 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles. 

via Associated Press

Additional approvals include $740 million for power packs for armored personnel carriers and $150 million for light utility helicopters.

House Democratic Representative Gregory Meeks called the move shameful for "bypassing the Congressional review process" and a repudiation of Congress' oversight role by Donald Trump.

"Shamefully, this is now the second time the Trump administration has blatantly ignored long-standing Congressional prerogatives while also refusing to engage Congress on critical questions about the next steps in Gaza and broader US policy," Meeks declared.

White House officials justified the approvals by citing Washington’s commitment to "upholding Israel’s security," even as war monitors have alleged Israeli forces have commit war crimes in Gaza, including ongoing violations that have killed over 500 Palestinians since the "ceasefire" began in October 2025.

In parallel, the State Department also approved a $9 billion sale to Saudi Arabia, covering 730 Patriot interceptor missiles intended for air defense systems.

The sales come amid a heightened risk of a new US war against Iran and the heavy militarization of West Asian waters.

US President Donald Trump has publicly referred to the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier and its accompanying warships as a "beautiful armada" currently stationed in the Arabian Sea and moving toward the Persian Gulf.

Iranian officials warned that any US base used to attack their country would be considered a legitimate target, saying: "We will target the same base and the same point from which air operations against us are launched," but clarified that the Islamic Republic "will not attack countries because we do not consider them to be enemy countries."

Almost 37 Trillion Dollars in Debt, United States accounts for 15 to 20% of Israel's Defence Budget.. pic.twitter.com/RyqFyTqhXA

— The Resonance (@Partisan_12) January 19, 2026

Gulf states warn that further escalation could destabilize the region, putting their economic and security interests at risk, and threatening major infrastructure and development plans such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have informed the US that they will not allow their territory or airspace to be used for military actions against Iran, seeking to maintain a neutral stance and avoid becoming targets.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 05:00

Hero British Bus Driver Fired For Stopping Thief And Protecting Passenger

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a nation where self-defense is apparently a fireable offense, Mark Hehir, a dedicated London bus driver, has been hailed as a hero by the public but sacked by his employer for daring to chase down a thief who snatched a passenger’s necklace.

This absurdity highlights how the UK’s bureaucratic overlords prioritize corporate protocols over actual justice, leaving ordinary citizens vulnerable to rampant crime while the establishment looks the other way.

Hehir’s act of bravery, which even the police deemed “proportionate and necessary,” has sparked petitions, fundraisers, and widespread fury online. But in today’s Britain, where globalist policies have eroded basic freedoms, punishing the good guys seems to be the new normal—echoing a broader decline that sees literal convicted terrorists eyeing political power while heroes like Hehir get the boot.

A thief stole a necklace

A bus driver caught the thief and got the necklace back

British Police arrested the Bus Driver and he got sacked.

The UK isn't a real place at this point pic.twitter.com/I0uI0mJgQH

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) January 30, 2026

The incident unfolded on June 25, 2024, aboard the 206 bus route in northwest London. A man boarded, shoved past a female passenger, and ripped a necklace from her neck before fleeing. Hehir, 62, didn’t hesitate—he pursued the thief for about 200 meters, retrieved the jewelry after a scuffle, and returned it to the distressed woman.

But the story didn’t end there. The thief returned to the bus, allegedly to “apologize” according to Metroline, the bus company. Hehir insists the man threw the first punch, prompting him to retaliate in self-defense and restrain the assailant until police arrived. Both were arrested, but authorities quickly cleared Hehir, with a detective noting the force used was justified “in the defence of himself and the female passenger.”

Metroline saw it differently. They fired Hehir for gross misconduct, accusing him of assault, leaving the bus unattended, and bringing the company into disrepute. An employment tribunal upheld the decision, claiming it fell within a “band of reasonable responses” for an employer. Never mind that Hehir had put himself in harm’s way to protect others.

Mark Hehir was a bus driver in London who chased down a man who stole a passenger's necklace.

He’s a hero. But guess what? The bus company @metroline sacked him.
?They said the thief was a “customer”. Inexplicably a tribunal upheld their decision.

It’s no wonder we live… pic.twitter.com/tkJnpcbaXq

— Robert Jenrick (@RobertJenrick) January 29, 2026

Public backlash has been swift and fierce. A petition demanding his reinstatement has garnered over 5,000 signatures, while thousands of pounds have been raised in support. On X, users decried the ruling as emblematic of “anarcho-tyranny,” where criminals roam free but citizens are penalized for stepping up.

The exact opposite happens in other countries:

???? Hero Bus Driver Comparison

?? #London: Get the sack ?
?? #Singapore: Get an award ?
?? #Korea: Get an award ?

Coincidentally, Metroline, who sacked Mark Hehir, is owned by Comfortdelgro based in Singapore. https://t.co/l43xq4jGxU pic.twitter.com/dzxuMxqI6K

— Rory Geoghegan (@rorygeo) January 29, 2026

Hehir himself called into LBC radio to set the record straight. “I’m the actual bus driver,” he told host Tom Swarbrick, explaining how the thief came back aggressive, not apologetic. “He went to throw a left punch and I met him with a right punch and clearly he went down.”

? Former Metropolitan Police Detective, Peter Bleksley, brands Mark Hehir a "hero" after he chased down and knocked out a thief who stole a passenger's necklace.

The bus driver has been sacked despite acting in self-defence.@TVKev | @PeterBleksley pic.twitter.com/vw0wkeMaHw

— Talk (@TalkTV) January 29, 2026

This case isn’t isolated. It fits a disturbing pattern in the UK, where the establishment’s obsession with “protocols” and political correctness tramples on individual rights. Under Labour’s watch, crime surges unchecked, fueled by open borders and soft-on-crime policies that echo the globalist agenda eroding Western societies.

Tie this to the latest outrage: a convicted terrorist running for office in the UK’s second city Birmingham. Shahid Butt, sentenced to five years in Yemen for plotting bombings against British targets and with a history of violent offenses in the UK, is now campaigning on a pro-Gaza platform in a Muslim-majority ward. He dismisses his conviction as a setup, but facts don’t lie.

Sharon Osbourne, widow of rock legend Ozzy, fired back on social media: “This has nothing to do with racism. I think I’m gonna move to Birmingham and put my name down for the ballot to be on the council. I’m serious.” Supporters cheered her on, with comments like “Please do, Sharon. Gosh, it’s just unbelievable that someone like him can stand. It’s just so demoralising. What is this country coming to?”

This juxtaposition is damning. While a bus driver gets sacked for defending a victim, a man with terrorist ties can vie for public office, backed by pro-Gaza activists. It’s the same system that welcomes extremists like Alaa Abd el-Fattah—who praised Osama bin Laden—while jailing Brits for social media posts criticizing immigration.

Such hypocrisy exposes the rot: a two-tier justice system where mass migration and woke ideologies prioritize outsiders over natives, stifling freedom and safety. Hehir’s sacking isn’t just a corporate blunder—it’s a symptom of a nation surrendering to chaos.

Brits deserve better than a government that handcuffs heroes while handing platforms to radicals.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

  Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 03:30

How Arctic Ice Loss Is Reshaping Global Shipping

Not only does the Arctic hold significant oil and rare earth resources, thawing ice means that shipping routes can be reduced drastically.

Since 1980, the Arctic’s minimal ice extent, its smallest point, has shrunk by 39%.

At the same time, the Arctic is a strategic priority for Russia, both for freight transport and military security.

More recently, President Trump has argued that Greenland - a territory he has threatened to acquire - is critical to U.S. security.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows how Arctic ice loss is redrawing shipping routes, based on data from multiple sources, including NASA, World Bank, NOAA, and ArcData.

The Rise of Arctic Shipping As Ice Thaws

Over the last decade, Arctic shipping has increased 37%, with 1,781 unique ships sailing a combined 12.7 million nautical miles in 2024.

Ship traffic is increasing as Arctic ice is thawing at a notable pace. For perspective, the loss in minimal ice extent between 1980 and 2025 is greater than the size of India’s land area.

Below, we show the annual minimum Arctic ice extent over the past several decades.

Among the region’s key shipping corridors are the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage.

The Northern Sea Route, in particular, is central to Russia’s strategic ambitions.

In 2025, the first vessel completed a China–Europe transit along the route in roughly 20 days, covering 7,850 nautical miles.

By comparison, the southern route via the Suez Canal takes about 27 days and spans 11,167 nautical miles.

Looking ahead, the even shorter Transpolar Route—cutting directly across the North Pole—could become viable as early as 2059.

The Arctic is warming at roughly four times the global average, accelerating ice melt and extending navigable seasons.

If realized, the Transpolar Route would further reduce shipping distances and costs, while significantly increasing the Arctic’s geopolitical and economic importance.

To learn more about this topic, check out this map explainer on the territory of Greenland.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 02:45

"Energy Suicide": Slovak PM Fico To Sue After Brussels Issues Total Ban On Russian Gas

Via Remix News,

Slovakia is obliged to stop taking over Russian gas by Nov. 1, 2027, at the latest, and according to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, the EU decision to ban all gas from member states amounts to “energy suicide.” As a result, Bratislava will file a lawsuit at the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ) against the newly adopted regulations.

On Monday, the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament formally adopted the new legislation on the gradual phase-out of Russian gas and oil imports. The move is part of the REPowerEU plan, which aims to become independent from Russian energy carriers.

Fico immediately criticized the move, calling it “energy suicide,” and said that “when the military conflict ends, everyone will be breaking their legs, rushing to go to Russia to do business.”

Fico announced that Slovakia will file a lawsuit against the adopted regulation at the Court of Justice of the European Union based in Luxembourg, writes Hlavnespravy.sk.

According to Fico, the country will argue that the regulation violates the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality.

He added that the Slovak Ministry of Justice, together with the portfolio responsible for foreign and European affairs, had prepared a “very professional document” and that they would be asking for the regulation to be declared contrary to the basic principles of the EU.

Fico also announced that Hungary, which voted against the legislation together with Slovakia, is also filing a lawsuit. It is not possible to file a joint action, but the argument is coordinated with the Hungarian side.

Fico says the war in Ukraine will be over by Nov. 1, 2027, “and everyone comes to their sense.” He believed that detaching from Russian energy in this way was suicide, and that not only he, but also German economists, politicians, and other EU politicians see it that way. According to his claim, the decision was made on a meaningless, ideological basis, due to hatred towards the Russian Federation.

Fico has long called for a ceasefire in the war, leading some to criticize his position in the conflict. However, his point about Russian energy has been echoed across the political spectrum in Europe, especially during a time when European nations feel threatened by the U.S.’s increasingly dominant position in supplying Europe’s energy needs. If the U.S. were to decide to curtail liquified natural gas (LNG) deliveries, for instance, it could be disastrous for Europe.

Fico also criticized the fact that the decree was adopted by a qualified majority. According to him, the European Commission has circumvented the principle of unanimity, which should be applied in the event of sanctions. The Slovak prime minister assessed this as a violation of the basic principles of the EU treaties. Increasingly, decisions on immigration, foreign policy, and a range of other issues are being taken by “qualified majority,” but since the EU cannot reach this, it is now violating the founding treaties to pass through its agenda.

He also warned that Slovakia could find itself in a situation where the energy carrier concerned would not be sufficient due to the regulation. As he puts it, “one dependency will be replaced by another”, and Europe will have to obtain even higher quantities of liquefied gas from the United States.

According to Fico, Slovakia has already suffered significant damage when the transit of Russian gas on the territory of the country stopped. According to him, this was caused by the decision of the Ukrainian president and meant a loss of up to €500 million per year due to the lack of transit fees.

As reported in Hungarian outlet Hirado.hu, the situation of European gas supply continues to deteriorate after the Arctic cold in the United States significantly reduced LNG production. Due to the extreme frosts, American gas production decreased by about 11 percent, and prices more than doubled, while domestic consumption increased sharply. There is fear that exports, including shipments to Europe, may also decline.

The European market is particularly vulnerable, as the filling of gas reservoirs has already fallen below 45 percent and is in danger of falling below 25 percent.

In Germany, reservoirs are already under 41 percent filled and incoming LNG is used immediately, which means that strategic reserves are barely formed. All of this means price increases are coming at a time when the EU is urging complete separation from Russian natural gas.

The development of the situation depends crucially on how long the extreme cold lasts in the United States and when LNG plants can return to normal operation.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 02:00

A Panicking Oracle Plans To Raise Up To $50 Billion, As Its Stock And Bonds Crater

Just over a month ago, on Dec 17, alongside the news that Abu Dhabi was set to invest billions in OpenAI thus preventing a year-end tech rout, we said that ORCL CDS - which on that day hit the widest level since the 2008 financial crisis at 156bps - "may have gone a bit too far"...

ORCL CDS limit down tomorrow (of course, there is no limit down in CDS). https://t.co/FQNgsek5Js

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 18, 2025

... and sure enough, for the next month or so, Oracle CDS tightened rather notably. However, we certainly did not expect the company to just sit there and do nothing, as the market started asking questions again about where the tens of billions in committed funding would come from. After all, we were the first to lay out back in November the case why Oracle CDS should be trading much wider than it was at the time (see "Oracle Is First AI Domino To Fall After Barclays Downgrades Its Debt To Sell.")

And since nothing changed, the questions started coming in once more. 

First, it was Morgan Stanley's analysts (here for pro subs) with a major cut to their ORCL price target. The reason: "GPUaaS is a sizable revenue opportunity, but our collaborative deep dive across the equity, credit and GVAT teams suggests the buildout will push EPS below targets and drive materially higher funding needs. Equity valuation appears to reflect this, while credit still looks rich."

Source

If that wasn't bad enough, in the same report the bank's credit analysts said that they "reiterate our recommendation to buy 5Y CDS protection. Our new funding and leverage forecasts, paired with technicals, limited financing plan transparency, and our prior IG situation comp analysis, all support a move toward ~200bp, in our view. In regards to the bonds, a common question from investors this year has been whether current levels are a good entry point. We do not think this is case. We actually present even wider spread targets (~200bp for 10Y vs. ~170-175bp presented pre-Thanksgiving, ~250bp for 30Y vs. ~220bp, still using a media/ cable comp set) and formally introduce sell recommendations on the 35s and 55s."

Source

And then it went from bad to worse for Oracle just three days later, when on Jan 26 TD Cowen's Michael Elias, published a report which crushed ORCL, not only sending its stock to a new 7 month lows, but pushing its CDS wll above the Dec 17 high.

That's because according to Elias, who certainly does not mince his words when it comes to criticism of Oracle, the company is considering cutting 20,000 to 30,000 jobs and selling some of its activities as US banks pull back from financing the company’s AI data-center expansion. The job cuts would free up $8 billion to $10 billion in in much needed cash flow. Recall that according to Barclays, absent dramatic changes to its business, the company could run out of cash as soon as the end of 2026. Oracle is also weighing a sale of its health-care software unit, Cerner, which it acquired for $28.3 billion in 2022. 

Below we excerpt from Elias' note "Oracle: Ability To Procure Incremental U.S. Data Center Capacity Faces Challenges Amid Financing Struggles, Raising Questions On The Potential For Incremental U.S. RPO Growth", also available to pro subs.

In June 2025, we were the first to highlight via our channel checks Oracle's intention to procure ~5GW of data center capacity in support of OpenAI workloads, which proved accurate as Oracle in late 3Q25 leased ~5.2GW of U.S. data center capacity (which we highlighted in October) including: 1) 1.4GW in Shackleford, Texas, 2) 902MW (critical IT) in Port Washington, Wisconsin, 3) 1.0GW in Saline Township, Michigan, 4) 1.2GW in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, and 5) an incremental 672MW (critical IT) expansion in Abeline, Texas. Amidst the largest ramp in data center demand in history, there has been a material increase in the demand for frontend construction loans/project financing from private data center operators, particularly concentrated with Oracle given timing, leading to ~$58B of debt being raised for Oracle/OpenAI data center projects ($38B for Shackleford/Wisconsin and $20B for New Mexico) in a two-month period, with more behind it.

However, with Oracle to procure what our channel checks now indicate is ~3MM GPUs (and other IT gear) to support its existing OpenAI agreement, both equity and debt investors have raised questions regarding Oracle's ability to finance this buildout, as demonstrated by widening of Oracle's CDS spreads and pressure on Oracle's stock/bonds. Assuming a conservative $30MM/MW in IT fit out costs, the implied ~$156B capex requirement, coupled with separate questions on OpenAI's ability to fund its ~$1.4T in outstanding multi-year commitments, has led to multiple U.S. banks to pull back from lending to Oracle-linked data center projects. Furthermore, our channel checks indicate that multiple Oracle data center leases that were under negotiation with private operators struggled to secure financing, in turn preventing Oracle from securing the data center capacity via a lease. In cases where U.S. banks are still open to lending, our checks indicate that borrowing cost spreads for Oracle-linked data center projects have widened to Non-IG levels (i.e. now SOFR+300-450bps vs. SOFR+225-250bps in September).

As the borrowing costs for operators rise, the result has been a slowdown in +100MW U.S. Oracle data center leasing by private operators as the market digests the current Oracle financing requirements. Importantly, our channel checks indicate that banks in Asia are still willing to lend (at a slight premium relative to historical rates) to data center operators undertaking Oracle leases as these banks look to gain exposure to the AI sector, providing a path for international Oracle expansion in support of incremental RPO. However, the pullback in U.S. financing has raised questions regarding Oracle's ability continue growing its revenue (RPO) in the U.S. if it continues facing challenges securing U.S. data center capacity to support OCI customer contracts.

The punchline: amidst these surging capital requirements, which can no longer be met by US-based banks, TD's latest channel checks indicate that Oracle is now requiring 40% upfront customer deposits as it looks to mitigate the incremental capex requirement for incremental revenue (RPO) growth.

Furthermore, the channel checks indicate that Oracle is evaluating multiple paths forward to address financing questions including:

1. a RIF of 20-30K employees which could drive ~$8-10B of incremental free cash flow,
2. asset divestitures (potentially Cerner) which would allow Oracle to reduce its debt load,
3. vendor financing
4. Bring Your Own Chip (BYOC) which was highlighted as a potential on Oracle's latest earnings call

In the event of BYOC (which the TD channel checks confirm is a potential), TD questions if any existing Oracle/OpenAI contracts would need to be re-cut given the current $/GPU/hour pricing structure which includes the cost of the GPUs. In the interim, Elias writes that the near-term incremental demand needs of OpenAI have shifted to be fulfilled by Microsoft and to a lesser extent Amazon.

It's not just Morgan Stanley and TD: Sanchit Vir Gogia, chief analyst at Greyhound Research, said the banking divergence as a critical warning sign. “The difference in sentiment between US and Asian banks isn’t just a minor detail; it’s the first serious sign of financial friction in Oracle’s hyperscale ambitions,” he said. The $300 billion OpenAI deal may look impressive, he added, but “when you look closer, it’s built on backlog with no guaranteed revenue and massive capex requirements.”

Gogia argued that enterprises need to fundamentally rethink how they view Oracle cloud contracts. “CIOs need to treat Oracle’s cloud buildout not as a service agreement, but as a shared infrastructure risk,” he said. “If they can’t fund it, they can’t build it. And if they can’t build it, you can’t run your workloads.”

And all of this, of course, takes place against a background of historic cash incineration by Oracle and negative cash burn as far as the eye can see, making what until recently was unthinkably, all too possible. 

So with the company facing a creeping squeeze of corporate distress and junk bond spreads as sentiments turns apocalyptic, amid growing speculation it will be forced to lay off tens of thousands and liquidate its best assets, Oracle has predictably panicked, and on Sunday it unexpectedly announced plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year through a combination of debt and equity sales to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity.

The company plans to raise half of the funds via equity-linked and common equity issuances, including mandatory convertible preferred securities and through an at-the-market equity program of as much as $20 billion, something will will certainly depress its stock for the foreseeable future as it sells stock on even the smallest of breakouts.  The rest of its funding target would be raised via a single issuance of bonds early in 2026. The company borrowed $18 billion in 2025 in what was one of the year’s largest corporate bond offerings. 

Of course, as noted above, if Oracle does not raise the money, it may very well find itself in a liquidity crisis or much worse, so all David Ellison is doing, is whatever the market said he should have done long ago.  

According to Bloomberg, Oracle is raising money to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from the company’s largest cloud customers, including Advanced Micro Devices, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, OpenAI, TikTok and xAI, the company said in a statement Sunday.

The announcement coincides with persistent fears about whether massive artificial intelligence-linked investments by tech companies such as Oracle will pay off. The company’s shares have fallen around 50% from its record price on Sept. 10, wiping out roughly $460 billion in market value. And the looming stock sales will lead to even bigger losses.

Developing AI data centers - without concurrently collecting cash from its clients - has pushed Oracle’s free cash flow negative, where it is expected to stay until 2030. As a result of its terribly structured deals, the company is on the hook for tens for billions of dollars in spending in the coming years, largely on semiconductors and leases.

Issuing equity would help send a message to the market that Oracle is serious about maintaining its investment-grade debt rating, wrote John DiFucci, an analyst at Guggenheim, in a January note.

“If Oracle can complete the raise successfully it will start digging itself out of the considerable hole it has found itself in,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at DA Davidson & Co.

Actually, even if Oracle can complete the raise, it still is facing massive funding shortfalls; and if it can't it could very well be lights out. 

Making matters worse, the debt market will not have an appetite for this much investment-grade debt from Oracle given its existing commitments and trading in its credit default swaps, Luria said. Issuing equity may also hurt the company’s stock price, which in turn will spill over into its bonds. 

Making this significant of an announcement on a Sunday afternoon is unusual for a mature company like Oracle. The timing, “could be the management team trying to stop the endless slide in the share price by trying to give investors some hope ahead of Monday’s open,” Luria said. Judging by where futures are trading, the company could not have picked a worse day for its announcement which will likely see the stock tumble double digits when it opens for trading. 

A key part of Oracle’s cloud investment is its contract with OpenAI, which has committed to spending about $300 billion to rent servers from Oracle. OpenAI is not profitable, adding to worries about the financial strains from huge capital expenditures without a clear timeline for meaningful returns. In fact, OpenAI has some $1.4 trillion in commitments to various other companies and if for some reason the company announces this money won't be forthcoming in time... well, just don't be stuck holding the world's biggest circle jerk bag. 

More in the full Morgan Stanley and TD Cowen notes available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/01/2026 - 23:13

San Francisco Ends $5M-A-Year Program That Supplied Alcohol To Homeless Addicts

Sigh. It's not parody. It's San Francisco. The city is shutting down a controversial program that used millions in taxpayer funds to provide alcohol to homeless residents struggling with addiction, according to the NY Post.

Mayor Daniel Lurie said the city will end the Managed Alcohol Program, which cost about $5 million each year and began during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“For years, San Francisco was spending $5 million a year to provide alcohol to people who were struggling with homelessness and addiction — it doesn’t make sense, and we’re ending it,” Lurie told The California Post.

The program was launched in April 2020, when the city placed unhoused residents in hotels during lockdowns. Medical staff supplied controlled amounts of beer and liquor to prevent dangerous withdrawal symptoms while stores and bars were closed. Although intended as a temporary measure, it continued for nearly six years.

During its operation, the program served only 55 people, translating to an average cost of roughly $454,000 per client.

Now, Lurie says the city has fully pulled its support.

“We have ended every city contract for that program,” he said.

Community Forward, the nonprofit that managed the initiative in recent years, confirmed that the city has terminated its funding. Financial records show the group received millions in public money, much of it spent on staff salaries.

San Francisco’s program was the first of its kind in the United States, modeled loosely on similar efforts in Canada. Unlike other harm-reduction policies, such as needle exchanges, MAP directly supplied alcohol to people already dependent on it.

Since taking office last year, Lurie has moved away from long-standing harm-reduction policies. He has also ended the distribution of drug-use equipment and pushed for stricter enforcement of street drug activity.

“Under my administration, we made San Francisco a recovery-first city and ended the practice of handing out fentanyl smoking supplies so people couldn’t kill themselves on our streets,” Lurie said.

“We have work to do, but we have transformed the city’s response, and we are breaking the cycles of addiction, homelessness and government failure that have let down San Franciscans for too long.”

Last year, he warned open-air drug markets that enforcement would increase.

“If you do drugs on our streets, you will be arrested,” Lurie said. “And instead of sending you back out in crisis, we will give you a chance to stabilize and enter recovery.”

The Post writes that recovery advocates welcomed the decision to end MAP. Tom Wolf, a former homeless addict who now works in outreach, said the program wasted public funds.

“They [were] wasting our money just paying people to keep using the drug that they’re hopelessly addicted to,” Wolf said.

He also criticized how harm reduction has evolved.

“Harm reduction itself is part of the overall social justice framework,” he said, adding that it has shifted from preventing disease to “supporting drug users.”

Steve Adami, head of the Salvation Army’s recovery-focused program in San Francisco, said the city is now rethinking decades of policy.

“Under Mayor Lurie, they have reassessed the outcomes of those models,” Adami said. “That we are a recovery-first city. He’s made a significant investment into abstinence-based and recovery-focused services.”

In May, Lurie signed the Recovery First Act, signaling a shift toward abstinence and treatment-based approaches.

Despite the changes, major challenges remain. San Francisco has limited detox capacity, with only about 68 beds for thousands of people who cycle through homelessness each year. Many residents seeking help still face long waits for treatment.

The end of the alcohol program reflects the mayor’s broader effort to reverse years of permissive policies as he tries to address addiction, homelessness, and the decline of the city’s downtown core.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/01/2026 - 22:45

Isaacman: NASA Aims To Build 'Martian Outpost' On Mars With Nuclear Propulsion

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announced his agency’s commitment to developing a nuclear propulsion system for missions to Mars within the next three years.

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman (L) speaks at a press conference at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on Jan. 17, 2026. (T.J. Muscaro/The Epoch Times).

“Before the end of @POTUS‘ term, @NASA will lay the foundation of a ’transcontinental railroad' to Mars,” Isaacman wrote on X on Jan. 30. “By utilizing nuclear electric propulsion, our nation will have the tools necessary to establish a Martian outpost and maintain American superiority in deep space.”

The administrator shared a clip from a Jan. 30 appearance on Fox News in which he explained that while NASA continues its work to put boots back on the moon, it will also launch its first nuclear power and propulsion rocket by the end of President Donald Trump’s term.

“That’s going to essentially almost establish the transcontinental railroad to Mars,” he said. “It’s how you efficiently move lots of mass to Mars. So it’s not necessarily always the fastest way to get there, but it gives you the tools to build out potentially a Martian outpost, certainly to mine and refine propellant on Mars, which is what you’re going to need to bring your astronauts back home.”

He explained that America would have the capability to send astronauts to Mars, but the hard part was bringing them back. Nuclear power and propulsion solved that problem.

Meanwhile, Isaacman reaffirmed that the Artemis program would continue to push forward the goal of the president’s national space policy to not just land humans back on the moon, but to construct a lunar base in order to stay and fulfill its scientific, economic, and strategic potential.

That base, he said, will involve a nuclear power plant, as well as mining operations, and refining Helium 3, which is considered to be the best fuel for nuclear fusion reactors, and plan to do it before communist China’s plan to do so by 2030.

“The Chinese said they’re going to do it,” Isaacman said of a nuclear reactor on the moon, “We’re going to do it first.”

But all of these plans still start with the mission whose rocket stands at Launch Complex 39-B at Kennedy Space Center in Florida: Artemis II. That 10-day mission, which will carry humans around the moon for the first time since Apollo 17 in 1972, and could do so as early as Feb. 8, awaits the results of a crucial dress rehearsal of launch day conditions set for Feb. 2.

“America’s mission to the Moon won’t end with a handful of landings,” Isaacman said on X. ”We will undertake repeatable and affordable missions that expand our presence across the lunar surface, fulfilling a 35-year promise to the American taxpayer.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/01/2026 - 18:40

Isaacman: NASA Aims To Build 'Martian Outpost' On Mars With Nuclear Propulsion

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announced his agency’s commitment to developing a nuclear propulsion system for missions to Mars within the next three years.

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman (L) speaks at a press conference at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on Jan. 17, 2026. (T.J. Muscaro/The Epoch Times).

“Before the end of @POTUS‘ term, @NASA will lay the foundation of a ’transcontinental railroad' to Mars,” Isaacman wrote on X on Jan. 30. “By utilizing nuclear electric propulsion, our nation will have the tools necessary to establish a Martian outpost and maintain American superiority in deep space.”

The administrator shared a clip from a Jan. 30 appearance on Fox News in which he explained that while NASA continues its work to put boots back on the moon, it will also launch its first nuclear power and propulsion rocket by the end of President Donald Trump’s term.

“That’s going to essentially almost establish the transcontinental railroad to Mars,” he said. “It’s how you efficiently move lots of mass to Mars. So it’s not necessarily always the fastest way to get there, but it gives you the tools to build out potentially a Martian outpost, certainly to mine and refine propellant on Mars, which is what you’re going to need to bring your astronauts back home.”

He explained that America would have the capability to send astronauts to Mars, but the hard part was bringing them back. Nuclear power and propulsion solved that problem.

Meanwhile, Isaacman reaffirmed that the Artemis program would continue to push forward the goal of the president’s national space policy to not just land humans back on the moon, but to construct a lunar base in order to stay and fulfill its scientific, economic, and strategic potential.

That base, he said, will involve a nuclear power plant, as well as mining operations, and refining Helium 3, which is considered to be the best fuel for nuclear fusion reactors, and plan to do it before communist China’s plan to do so by 2030.

“The Chinese said they’re going to do it,” Isaacman said of a nuclear reactor on the moon, “We’re going to do it first.”

But all of these plans still start with the mission whose rocket stands at Launch Complex 39-B at Kennedy Space Center in Florida: Artemis II. That 10-day mission, which will carry humans around the moon for the first time since Apollo 17 in 1972, and could do so as early as Feb. 8, awaits the results of a crucial dress rehearsal of launch day conditions set for Feb. 2.

“America’s mission to the Moon won’t end with a handful of landings,” Isaacman said on X. ”We will undertake repeatable and affordable missions that expand our presence across the lunar surface, fulfilling a 35-year promise to the American taxpayer.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/01/2026 - 18:40

How Easy Is It To Open A Daycare In Minnesota?

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Minnesota is facing heavy scrutiny after the Trump administration accused bad actors in the state of exploiting federal funds from child-focused programs for personal gain.

The Minneapolis skyline, on Jan. 11, 2026. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced on Dec. 29, 2025, that 98 people—85 of Somali descent— were indicted in welfare fraud cases in the state.

Minnesota was home to the “largest COVID-19 fraud case” in America, as 78 defendants—72 of Somalian descent—were accused of pocketing $300 million to $400 million dollars of “Feeding Our Future” funds that were supposed to provide children free meals during the pandemic.

Abdiaziz Shafii Farah, the mastermind behind the “Feeding Our Future” scandal, was sentenced to 28 years in prison in August.

The Trump administration last month announced it would freeze $185 million in federal funds to Minnesota until the scandal-plagued state could prove that the money was being used properly.

Even though federal funds have temporarily dried up in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, prospective child care providers are still able to obtain child care licenses.

The Epoch Times investigated how to open a day care in Minnesota, with a focus on the Twin Cities, Minneapolis and Saint Paul, which have the highest concentration of Somali residents in the United States.

Licensing Applications

The State of Minnesota’s Department of Children, Youth, and Families manages licensing applications for child care centers and charges a nonrefundable fee of $500 to apply. Prospective small business owners can receive a license in approximately three to six months.

Aspiring providers have two routes to obtain a license: open a child care center or provide services at their own home.

An in-home day care license is hundreds of dollars cheaper and requires potential providers to go through their local county for a small fee. Some may even be eligible to receive a grant of $2,000 for startup costs.

Aspiring child care providers seeking licensure in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, which oversee applications in Minneapolis and St. Paul, have to pay a nonrefundable $50 application fee.

Before an application can be submitted, future business owners must first attend an orientation.

Ramsey County requires in-person orientation, which is offered once a month, whileHennepin County allows people to take a 30-minute online orientation and submit their application immediately. Hennepin County’s online orientation can be completed in four separate languages: Somali, Spanish, English and Hmong.

The orientation presentation  explains the “many benefits” provided to licensed providers, including food programs, eligibility for loans and grants, and small business tax benefits.At the end of the orientation, the county provides an email address to request the six-page Family Child Care Application Form. The document, which is not available to download, asks a series of questions relating to the applicant, which will be used to help conduct a background check.

Children watch television at ABC Learning Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 31, 2025. AP Photo/Mark Vancleave Background Check

Hennepin County charges $49.10 for a background check per provider.

The background check form requires  applicants to list specific information about their living situation, such as who could be around children under their care, and add references.

The check does a deep dive into a person’s entire criminal record, which includes a juvenile record for people under the age of 28.

Additional checks include where the person has lived in the past five years and if they’ve received government benefits.

Training

Licensed providers must attend several hours of mandatory training before they are granted their license, according to requirements by the Minnesota Department of Children, Youth, and Families.

The mandatory training includes a six-hour course titled “Supervising for Safety for Family Child Care” and a four-hour course on child development and learning and behavior guidance. Other required training includes “Pediatric First Aid & Pediatric Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation,” “Reducing the Risk of Sudden Unexpected Infant Death,” “Reducing the Risk of Abusive Head Trauma,” and “Basic Education for Safe Travel” if transportation will be provided.

The classes are offered by the state and amount to $219 total, although some of the courses are free.

Additional adult caregivers must go through the same training, but people who identify as a “helper” are not required to do so.

Other courses are offered for providers who plan to take care of infants and children under school age.

Processing and Approval

The processing period can take up to half a year, depending on how many applications are going through the system and if an applicant makes mistakes on initial forms.

The Epoch Times contacted Hennepin County for information on how many applications were denied in 2025 and did not hear back by the time this report was published.

Once approved, the licensed provider attends a small group meeting on how to “prepare your home and begin your child care business,” including requirements for space, sleeping, equipment, and safety.

Grants

Minnesota offers training for providers seeking child care assistance funds and lets people apply through the state’s Provider Hub.

A licensed provider in Minnesota has access to the Provider Hub and is eligible to participate in the Child Care Assistance Program (CCAP), which uses federal funds to help low-income families pay for child care.

CCAP, which has 23,000 children enrolled in Minneapolis, uses federal money from the Child Care and Development Fund.

Child care providers apply for smaller grants, provided by the state, using the Child Care Aware Grants Program, which gives up to $1,000 for family child care and $2,500 to centers.

Applications for regional grants open once a year, but “soon-to-be licensed” providers can also apply for startup grants of up to $2,000 for family child care and $3,000 for child care centers.

Students from Little Scholars in New York City, on Dec. 11, 2025. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images Funding Freeze

Due to widespread fraud allegations in Minnesota, not all grants are available.

The Trump administration announced on Dec. 30, 2025, that it was freezing child care funding in all 50 states after Minnesota day care centers run by Somali residents became the epicenter of alleged fraud scandals.

The freeze impacts the Child Care and Development Fund, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, the Head Start program, and refugee assistance programs.

In 2025, the federal government provided nearly $2.4 billion to the Child Care and Development Fund, $7.35 billion to Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and $869 million the Social Services Block Grant.

Minnesota received 7.7 percent ($184.9 million) of the money allocated to the Child Care and Development fund in 2025, according to data provided by the Office of the Administration for Children and Families.

The state received 3.5 percent ($262 million) of the funds from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families in 2025, according to the state’s budget.

“Funds will be released only when states prove they are being spent legitimately,” Health and Human Services (HHS) Deputy Secretary Jim O’Neill said during the announcement.

Controversies

Minnesota and its Somali population has received heavy criticism after allegations of widespread fraud surfaced in the state.

YouTuber Nick Shirley went viral after posting a video which featured a series of Somali-run day cares, seemingly empty, despite receiving federal funding.

The Epoch Times confirmed that Quality Learning Center, which was featured in Shirley’s video, closed shortly after a viral video showed its sign misspelled Learning as “Learing.”

The scandals led Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to drop out of his bid for reelection on Jan. 5, even though he blamed the alleged fraud on “an organized group of criminals,” as opposed to the state’s oversight.

“Every minute I spend defending my own political interest would be a minute I can’t spend defending the people of Minnesota against the criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences,” Walz wrote in his announcement that ended his bid for a third term as governor.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/01/2026 - 17:30