Canada Announces Plan To Recruit Foreign Soldiers For Fast Track Immigration

It's a common theme throughout history - When governments go authoritarian, they often hire foreign soldiers in order to better control their respective populations or wage war on their neighbors.  The strategy is being implemented across Europe currently; with many nations taking in millions of third world migrants from Muslim nations and using targeted marketing to recruit them as police and military. 

Not all mass immigration is about rigging elections in favor of socialists.  It's sometimes about subjugation using people who have no loyalty to the native population.  

Canada appears to be the latest progressive regime to introduce the integration of foreign military professionals into their ranks.  The decision is part of the the country's new "Express Entry" program for migrants with skills that the government has deemed essential to the economy and to Canada's security. 

Globalist Prime Minister Mark Carney asserts that Canada will "tighten" the open immigration policies of the Trudeau Administration but it will also increase opportunities for foreign professionals to easily obtain entry and citizenship.  Canada's housing market has been crushed by inflation and a supply drought caused by a flood of 3 million immigrants (legal and illegal) over the past five years alone. 

In country with a population similar to the state of California and with less housing, the migrant influx has been a disaster.  Around 23% of Canada is foreign born.  Around 15% are migrants from third world countries.  The majority of these new citizens are low-skill and act as a drain on the nation's social welfare apparatus.    

The announcement of tighter controls on immigration will probably come as a welcome surprise to most of the Canadian citizenry (if it actually happens), but the introduction of foreign assets into the Canadian military is a worrying sign. 

Under Canada's new 2026 Express Entry category-based selection, announced by Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab on February 18, 2026, a dedicated category exists for skilled military recruits (also referred to as highly skilled foreign military applicants or Foreign Skilled Military Applicants). This targets highly skilled foreign military personnel specifically recruited by the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) for key roles (Start video at 13:30).

The purported focus of this recruitment is doctors, nurses and pilots.  However, the categories for qualified personnel are rather broad, including leadership roles and:

Commissioned officers of the Canadian Armed Forces (NOC 40042)

Specialized members of the Canadian Armed Forces (NOC 42102)

Operations members (NOC 43204)

The parameters do not explicitly call for combat troops, but there is a loophole.  There is no dedicated NOC for Canadian special operations forces (e.g., JTF2 or CSOR), which are typically drawn from combat arms backgrounds and involve advanced training rather than a distinct occupational code.   Special operators often perform overlapping duties, such as operating weapons for defense, configuring surveillance systems, or using engineering for various tasks - elements already listed in 43204's main duties.

In other words, foreign personnel could be brought into Canada through the Express program under the guise of being "support specialists" while acting as combat troops.  This is only if the government decides it wants to hide the importation of combat soldiers into the country.  Carney could also simply change the open policy whenever he likes without public input.

Most nations seek to avoid recruitment of foreign troops to prevent intelligence breaches and loss of unit cohesion.  The US launched a similar foreign military recruitment program under Barack Obama in 2009, but this was shut down by the Trump Administration in 2017.

Canadian officials cite growing tensions with the US as one of the reasons for the decision.  Canada is being forced to finally meet its NATO requirements, while the EU and Canada have expressed hostility towards US efforts to save the west from the mass immigration schemes of leftist politicians. 

Carney, seeking to reduce reliance on the United States, announced a new defense strategy that aims to lift government investment in defense-related research and development by 85%, boost defense industry revenues by more than 240%, increase defense exports by 50% and create up to 125,000 new jobs (which will likely go to foreigners). Like other NATO members, Canada has pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035.

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is experiencing a severe, long-term recruitment crisis, operating roughly 14,000 personnel short of its goals in 2025–2026.  Critics suggest that Canada, like the EU, may be preparing for a war with Russia that could easily be avoided by staying out of Ukraine.  Another problem to consider is the rise of draconian speech laws and gun confiscation programs. 

Canada may be preparing to oppress the native conservative citizenry (around 40% of the population) as they expand progressive controls.  This would require considerable outside resources (foreign troops) to reinforce their small contingent of 65,000 active duty members, many of whom would likely be opposed to martial law.     

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 15:05

Ethereum Foundation Lists 'Quantum Readiness' As 2026 Priority

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

The Ethereum Foundation has announced it is targeting faster transactions, smarter wallets, better cross-chain interoperability, and quantum-resistant security as its “protocol priorities” in 2026.

In a statement published on Wednesday, the Ethereum Foundation outlined several goals, including continuing to scale the gas limit — the maximum amount of computational work a block can handle — “toward and beyond” 100 million, a major topic of discussion among the Ethereum community in 2025. 

Source: Ethereum Foundation

Some members of the Ethereum community anticipate that the gas limit will increase significantly this year. In November, Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano said that the goal of significantly increasing Ethereum’s gas limit to 180 million in 2026 is a baseline, not a best-case scenario. 

“Post-quantum readiness” is a focus for Ethereum

The foundation highlighted the Glamsterdam network upgrade, scheduled for the first half of 2026, as a major priority. It also emphasized long-term post-quantum readiness as part of its broader security initiative.

On Jan. 24, Ethereum researcher Justin Drake said in an X post that the foundation had “formed a new Post-Quantum (PQ) team.” 

“Today marks an inflection in the Ethereum Foundation’s long-term quantum strategy,” Drake said.

The Ethereum Foundation said it will also focus on improving user experience in 2026, with an emphasis on enhancing smart wallets through native account abstraction and enabling smoother interactions between blockchains via interoperability.

“The goal remains seamless, trust-minimized cross-L2 interactions, and we’re getting closer day by day. Continued progress on faster L1 confirmations and shorter L2 settlement times directly supports this.”

The foundation said that 2025 was one of the “most productive years,” citing two major network upgrades, Pectra and Fusaka, and the community raising the gas limit from 30 million to 60 million between the upgrades, for the first time since 2021.

Buterin’s big plans for Ethereum and AI

Ethereum Foundation’s Mario Havel said in an X post on Wednesday: “It took us a while to push out the announcement because we were preparing the biggest curriculum so far.” 

It comes just days after Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared his latest vision for Ethereum’s intersection with artificial intelligence on Feb. 10. Buterin explained that he sees the two working together to improve markets, financial safety and human agency.  

Buterin said his broader vision for the future of AI is to empower humans rather than replace them, though he said the short term involves much more “ordinary” ideas.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 14:20

Trump Has A UFO Speech Ready To Deliver

Documentary filmmaker Dan Farah appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast in November to promote his new documentary, The Age of Disclosure, and predicted that his film might force Trump to become the first world leader to confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life publicly.

"I wouldn't be surprised if it happens soon after the film comes out — the sitting president has to step to the microphone and say: humanity is not alone in the universe,” Farah told Rogan. “We have recovered technology of non-human origin. So have other nations. There is a high-stakes, secret cold war race to reverse engineer this technology. We need to win this race.” 

“I think Trump might be the only guy that’s willing to do something that crazy,” Rogan replied.

Well, now Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, let it slip during an appearance on the New York Post's Pod Force One podcast that Trump has a speech prepared confirming extraterrestrial life exists.

“Do you think that he's about to make an announcement about UFOs?" host Miranda Devine asked.

“Because President Obama was just on a podcast talking about how he believes in UFOs and hinting that he saw something when he was president.”

“Well, I said this in my podcast, too,” Lara Trump began.

“What's funny is we've kind of asked my father-in-law about this, 'cause we're like, ‘Well, what do you know?’ ‘Cause, Miranda, we all wanna know about the UFOs, or we all wanna know what's going on and he played a little coy with us. And so that, of course, led us to believe, Eric and I, were like, ‘Oh, my gosh, if he won't even, like, fully tell us, maybe there's more to it.’ And then I have just heard kind of around that... I think he's actually said it, I think my father-in-law has actually said it, that there is some speech that he has that, I guess, at, at the right time, and I don't know when the right time is, he's gonna break out and, and talk about, and it has to do with maybe some sort of extraterrestrial life, so to speak.”

Lara Trump suggests that President Trump is ready to make an announcement to the world about the existence of aliens, with his script already prepared for the “right time.”

“He’s going to talk about maybe some sort of extraterrestrial life.”

“I don’t know when the right time… pic.twitter.com/D3Cp4zTjFV

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) February 18, 2026

The White House offered exactly the kind of answer you'd expect. 

“I’ll have to check in with our speech writing team,” White House Press Secretary Karoline said.

”That would be of great interest to me personally, and I’m sure all of you in this room and apparently former President Obama, too.”

A clip from Obama's recent appearance on Brian Tyler Cohen’s podcast went viral over the weekend after he was asked point-blank whether aliens exist.

"They're real, but I haven't seen them, and they're not being kept in … Area 51 … There's no underground facility, unless there's this enormous conspiracy and they hid it from the president of the United States," Obama said. 

Barack Obama on aliens: “They’re real”

“But I haven’t seen them. They’re not being kept at Area 51. There’s no underground facility — unless there’s this enormous conspiracy and they hid it from the President of the United States.” pic.twitter.com/c6t0DYxewU

— UAP James (@UAPJames) February 14, 2026

By Sunday, Obama was on Instagram trying to walk it back.

"Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there's life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances aliens have visited us is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!" Obama wrote.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Barack Obama (@barackobama)

Washington's relationship with UFOs — or, in the preferred bureaucratic phrasing, Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) — has shifted considerably in recent years. A House hearing in July 2023 featured testimony from former military intelligence officer David Grusch, who told lawmakers under oath that he "was informed in the course of my official duties of a multi-decade UAP crash retrieval and reverse-engineering program to which I was denied access." Grusch further alleged the government had retrieved what he called "non-human biologics" from recovered craft, citing accounts from dozens of witnesses he interviewed over four years.

The Pentagon, of course, pushed back. A March 2024 report rejected the core claims — no reverse-engineered alien spacecraft, no hidden extraterrestrial biological material, no off-world technology stashed in some classified warehouse. The agency stood by its denials even as lawmakers held classified briefings.

Lara Trump’s comment adds new intrigue to the discussion. Whether Trump eventually delivers that address — or whether this is one more piece of carefully managed intrigue from a president who has never met a story he didn't know how to control — is a question that, for now, has no answer. But Trump sure does seem like the president who would do so.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 14:00

California Planning To Sue Trump Admin Over Revised Child Vaccine Guidelines

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

California Attorney General Rob Bonta said on Feb. 17 that the state plans to take legal action against the Trump administration over the recent modifications to the childhood vaccine schedule.

A man holds his 14-month-old son while he gets the MMR vaccine at a clinic in Lubbock, Texas, on March 1, 2025. Jan Sonnenmair/Getty Images

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Jan. 5, with backing from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., narrowed the number of vaccines routinely recommended by the childhood schedule.

Bonta told Reuters in an interview that he has mobilized his team to identify the necessary details for a possible complaint against the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including jurisdictional and legal grounds for pursuing the lawsuit.

“I like the facts. I like science. I don’t want to give any airtime to his—I mean, just conspiracy [expletive],” Bonta told the news agency, referring to Kennedy’s stance on vaccines.

Bonta did not specify when the state might file or whether it would be a multistate filing. Connecticut Attorney General William Tong, who also spoke to Reuters, indicated that his state may join California in the filing.

The Epoch Times reached out to HHS for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The CDC in January issued a revised childhood vaccine schedule that ended broad recommendations for vaccines against rotavirus, influenza, meningococcal disease, hepatitis A, and hepatitis B.

The agency said in a Jan. 5 memo that decisions for those vaccinations should instead be made through “shared clinical decision-making,” which involves discussion between parents and health care providers.

The changes were made after President Donald Trump directed the HHS and CDC to review U.S. vaccine schedules and compare them with those of peer countries. The president named three countries—Denmark, Japan, and Germany—that recommend fewer vaccines and fewer vaccine doses.

At the time, the White House said in a fact sheet that if the HHS and CDC determine that those practices from developed countries are better than U.S. recommendations, they are directed to update the U.S. core childhood vaccine schedule to align with such scientific evidence and best practices, while preserving access to existing vaccines for Americans.

“Practices like the hepatitis B vaccination at birth are standard in the United States, but uncommon in most developed countries, where it is typically only recommended for newborns of mothers who test positive for the infection,” the White House stated in December.

The American Academy of Pediatrics and other groups filed a lawsuit on Jan. 19 seeking to challenge the revised childhood vaccine schedule.

They argued that officials failed to adequately review relevant data or provide satisfactory explanations for the changes. A federal judge heard arguments on Feb. 13 and is considering whether to block the schedule update.

In January, HHS responded after executives of top vaccine companies took aim at the Trump administration in the wake of a series of actions on vaccines.

“Vaccine recommendations are based on the best available gold-standard scientific evidence and public health considerations, not corporate interests,” an HHS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email on Jan. 28.

“Under this administration, HHS is not beholden to the pharmaceutical industry. Decisions are made through transparent processes with the sole aim of protecting the health of the American people. Protecting public health and restoring trust will continue to drive HHS’ vaccine policy.”

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 13:40

Whole Foods Ditching Its "Dystopian" Pay-By-Palm Biometric Payment Option

Whole Foods Market is shutting down its palm-scan payment system nationwide, removing the devices from more than 500 stores by June 3 after shoppers largely ignored them. The chain, owned by Amazon, had pitched the feature as a frictionless way to pay. Instead, it became an experiment few customers embraced, according to The Daily Mail.

The program, called Amazon One, allowed shoppers to link their Amazon accounts to a scan of their palm and check out with a wave of the hand. Amazon says it processes more than a million biometric authentications each month across locations where the service operates, but a spokesperson said weak adoption at Whole Foods drove the decision to discontinue it there.

In interviews at a Union Square store in Manhattan, none of the dozen customers surveyed had used the scanners. Several said they had never seen anyone else try. “I haven’t [used palm payment], and I haven't seen anyone use it before,” said Priscilla Flete. After learning how the system worked, she added, “It’s a bit invasive.”

The Daily Mail writes that privacy worries were a common refrain. “I don't want to give my biometric data to nobody,” said Santiago Tieguec, who questioned the need for the service given that “Nowadays we have our cards in our phones.” Nusrat Abdullah, who hadn’t heard of the feature before, said, “It might be convenient, but I think your information is sensitive... I don't think paying with your hands is very safe.”

Others expressed outright distrust. Gavin McGinn said, “I wouldn't trust them to have that kind of information about people, because who would they sell it to?” Brayden Stephenson, who once tested the scanner out of curiosity, was skeptical that data would truly disappear: “A lot of the time, ‘delete’ is just archive and sell off to somebody else.”

Amazon disputes those fears, saying biometric data is encrypted, stored securely in the cloud and not shared with third parties. The company added that once the rollout ends, all associated customer information—including palm data—will be permanently deleted.

Retail analysts say the technology’s retreat underscores a basic reality: contactless cards and mobile wallets are already fast and easy. Without a clear benefit, many shoppers saw little reason to trade more personal data for the same checkout experience. As Stephenson put it, “I already have a card. I'm not getting anything out of that.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 13:05

The Atlantic Busted Fabricating Dead Kid Measles Story

Last Thursday, The Atlantic published a heart-wrenching story about an 11-month-old child who died of measles. Written in the second person from the perspective of a mother whose two unvaccinated children fell ill with the disease, the story is rich with personal detail;

"You plant her on the couch with a blanket and put Bluey on the TV while she drifts in and out of sleep..." 

"While the kids are napping, you tap a list of your daughter’s symptoms into Google and find a slew of diseases that more or less match up..."

"Her cough wracks her whole body, rounding her delicate bird shoulders. She does not sleep well. And as you lift up her pajama top to check her rash one morning, you see that her breathing is labored, shadows pooling between her ribs when she sucks in air." 

Image via NiemanLab

Turns out, NONE OF THAT HAPPENED. The Atlantic's Elizabeth Bruenig simply made it up, leading to mass confusion.

Elizabeth Bruenig, who fabricated measles scare piece without a disclaimer.

As Laura Hazard Owen of NiemanLab - who initially busted Bruenig - writes:

When I initially read Bruenig’s story, I was stunned: An Atlantic staff writer’s unvaccinated child had died of measles in the 2020s, and now she was writing about it? At the end of Bruenig’s piece, though, there’s an editor’s note: “This story is based on extensive reporting and interviews with physicians, including those who have cared directly for patients with measles.” That was the point when I sent a gift link to my mom group: “as far as I can tell this piece is fiction. What do we think about this choice? I am very conflicted!!!” My conflict stemmed from my concern that, though the piece was heavily researched, it was not a true story. I wondered if the key people whose minds might be changed by it — people who don’t vaccinate their kids — would brush it off as fiction, or fake.

Following the publication, two journalists reached out to Owen to let her know that they were similarly confused, as there "was not an editor's note/disclaimer on the piece at all." 

What's more, The Atlantic's own spokesperson told one of the journalists: "This is based on a mother's real account," - after which the outlet added a disclaimer. 

To +1 @laurahazardowen

I've also seen PDF of Atlantic piece on measles as first posted.

a/ Originally it had no editor's note

b/ PR rep initially told reporter (in note I've seen) "this is based on a mother's real account."

If Atlantic was confused, why wouldn't readers be? https://t.co/oWFlaktBWe

— David Folkenflik (@davidfolkenflik) February 19, 2026

The comments section at The Atlantic is full of similarly confused readers: 

To clarify - The Atlantic published a story about a child dying of measles.

Without notifying its readers the story was largely a work of fiction.

The only added an editor's note after other journalists started asking them about it. https://t.co/cgWdlt0KjS

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) February 19, 2026

Of course, some Harvard douche who doesn't disclose that his own work was mentioned in The Atlantic 'immediately recognized the article as hypothetical.' Great job Stuart! 

I don't understand how anyone would have not immediately recognized the article as hypothetical -- it's in the second person! Obviously none of this has happened to me as the reader, so obviously it's a way of storytelling.

— Stuart Buck (@stuartbuck1) February 19, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 12:30

Teachers Are Fomenting Anti-ICE Hysteria

Authored by Larry Sand via American Greatness,

Employees of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement have been busy lately, working to fulfill their mandate to remove undocumented immigrants.

Perhaps the most controversial aspect of ICE’s activities is its alleged presence in public schools across the nation.

But is ICE actually going into schools?

Absolutely not.

While there are a few reports of parents being detained at bus stops near schools and images of ICE agents tackling people on school grounds, they are not actually entering the schools.

Tricia McLaughlin, the Homeland Security Department’s assistant secretary for public affairs, explains that agents’ actions in and around schools are intended to protect children.

“ICE is not going to schools to arrest children—we are protecting children. Criminals are no longer able to hide in America’s schools to avoid arrest. The Trump administration will not tie the hands of our brave law enforcement and instead trusts them to use common sense.”

McLaughlin adds, “An arrest might be made at school if a dangerous illegal alien felon were to flee into a school or a child sex offender is working as an employee. But this has not happened.”

Nonetheless, teachers are organizing their students to battle ICE.

As reported by Erika Sanzi, director of communications at Defending Education, teachers in Minnesota have been coordinating student protests on social media.

“There is nothing organic about these events, and despite claims to the contrary, they are almost never spontaneous expressions of student speech. They are basically field trips without the parent permission slip,” Sanzi said.

In Oregon, a video shows kindergarten students participating in a protest, and numerous schools nationwide have preemptively canceled classes so students could protest.

The teachers’ unions have also seized on ICE’s alleged misdeeds to indoctrinate students.

According to materials obtained by Defending Education, the United Teachers Los Angeles gave a presentation last year titled “Preparing for ICE at Your School” that urged its members to engage in political activism and suggested using school resources to thwart ICE operations.

The UTLA documents guide educators on how to resist the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration and urge parents and teachers to collaborate on resistance efforts. It is part of the union’s broader efforts to “build a comprehensive response to immigration enforcement.”

One slide shared with educators reads, “The fight is far from over. We need to keep fighting together!” Another slide titled “What can you do?” instructs educators on how to respond to ICE operations.

Ron Gochez, a teacher at Dr. Maya Angelou Community High School in Los Angeles, a winner of the California Teachers Association “Human Rights Award,” and a spokesman for Unión del Barrio, a Chicano Marxist revolutionary political organization, is at the forefront of the anti-ICE movement in L.A.

During a recent ICE protest in Los Angeles, Gochez told his compadres, “Don’t forget where you’re standing. This is South Central Los Angeles. They (ICE) are not the only ones with guns in this city. Don’t forget that. And I don’t say that because I’m calling for violence; I’m saying that because the people have every right to defend themselves against masked, unidentified gunmen. The people have every right to defend themselves.”

Revolutionary activities are hardly new to Gochez. In August 2024, a UTLA meeting focused on “How to be a teacher & an organizer… and NOT get fired,” during which Gochez outlined stealth methods for indoctrinating his students. He described transporting busloads of students to an anti-Israel rally during the school day without arousing suspicion.

“A lot of us that have been to those (protest) actions have brought our students. Now, I don’t take the students in my personal car,” Gochez said. Then, referring to the Los Angeles Unified School District, he explained, “I have members of our organization who are not LAUSD employees. They take those students, and I just happen to be at the same place and the same time with them.”

Not surprisingly, the National Education Association aligns with various revolutionary groups, including the Sunrise Movement, which is funded by several left-wing billionaires, including George Soros. The group began with a focus on environmental issues but is now dedicated to virtually every radical proposition imaginable, with a particular emphasis on brainwashing students and organizing within schools.

In January, the NEA, under the guise of protecting children, blasted out an anti-ICE message across various social media platforms, saying, “As thousands of ICE agents carry out aggressive enforcement in Minnesota, hundreds of teachers, counselors, parents, school staff, activists, and union leaders are organizing and showing up in powerful ways—from delivering groceries and schoolwork to organizing solidarity actions and mass protests calling for ICE to leave schools and neighborhoods.”

Pushback against the blatant propaganda is mounting, however.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared that protests should be considered unlawful. The state education agency has warned that it could impose sanctions and investigate schools that facilitate “inappropriate political activism.”

“Schools and staff who allow this behavior should be treated as co-conspirators and should not be immune for criminal behavior,” Abbott told reporters.

In Florida, the state’s Education Commissioner, Anastasios Kamoutsas, said schools have a responsibility to ensure that protests do not disrupt school operations and suggested that discipline would be warranted for staff who facilitate or encourage protests during classroom hours.

“We will not tolerate educators encouraging school protests and pushing their political views onto students, especially ones that disparage law enforcement,” Kamoutsas said on social media.

Some Indiana school leaders are also calling for discipline after hundreds of students walked out of class to protest, a move that Republican Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith criticized as unacceptable.

Many parents are unhappy with the protests. One outraged Washington mother, seen in a video, has informed school officials that she is withdrawing her daughter from the district after teachers encouraged students to walk out to protest ICE activities.

When children go off to school each day, teachers act in loco parentis. Unfortunately, these days, “loco” has a whole different meaning.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 12:15

WTI Extends Geopolitical Risk Gains After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

Oil prices pushed higher Thursday on worries that nuclear talks between US and Iran might not avert a new conflict that could threaten supplies.

"Oil is extending its gains, with Brent crude back above $70 a barrel... as fears of a military confrontation between the US and Iran rattled energy markets," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"Nuclear talks between the two sides appear to be going nowhere fast, and the geopolitical premium is clearly back in play," he added.

On top of that, API reported an across the board draw in energy inventories.

“The failure to resolve core areas of contention continues to tip the scales in favor of another military confrontation,” RBC Capital Markets analysts including Helima Croft said in a note.

“The massive buildup of US military assets in the region as well as the recent Iranian naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz seem to suggest that the launch sequence for a second military conflict has commenced.”

Will the official data confirm API's draws and build (pun intended) on the geopolitical risk premia in crude prices...

API

• Crude -609k

• Cushing -1.4mm

• Gasoline -312k

• Distillates -1.6mm

DOE

• Crude -9.014mm - biggest draw since Sept 2025

• Cushing -1.095mm - biggest draw since Jun 2025

• Gasoline -3.21mm - biggest draw since Oct 2025

• Distillates -4.566mm

The official data confirmed API with inventory draws across the board. Crude saw its biggest destocking since September and Gasoline stocks fell for the first time since Nov7th...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production extended its rebound from the storm slowdown...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is trading near $67 after the official inventory data, extending gains...

Source: Bloomberg

"Geopolitical issues, above all Iran, are the key bullish factor in the oil market at the moment," University of Texas-Austin energy analyst Ben Cahill tells Axios via email.

"Otherwise there's not a whole lot of price support toward $70 [per barrel]. The slack in this market could embolden the White House," he said.

Iran exports about 1.5 million barrels per day, mostly to China. But the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage next to Iran, is a choke point that handles a whopping one-fourth or so of the world's maritime oil trade.

"For oil markets, the concern is clearly what action would mean not only for Iranian oil supply, but also broader Persian Gulf oil flows, given the risk of disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note on Wednesday.

Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research, told CNBC that he thinks the market sees tensions escalating further between the US and Iran, a likely catalyst for price hikes and longer-term volatility.

"Both prediction markets and oil markets are pricing some near-term moderate escalation as the base case," he said.

Specifically, if tensions in the Strait were to curtail flows by 1 million barrels per day for an entire year, Struyven predicted that would justify an $8 per barrel price increase, a roughly 11% jump from Thursday's price for Brent crude around $71.50. However, he also noted that fear among traders could push prices even higher, adding to the volatility in the market.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 12:05

US Coast Guard Seizes $133.5 Million In Illicit Drugs

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Crew of the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) Cutter Seneca seized more than $133.5 million worth of cocaine and offloaded the drugs at Port Everglades, Florida, the agency said in a Feb. 13 statement.

The crew of the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk (WMEC 913) and a Coast Guard MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter flight crew conduct training evolutions in the Caribbean Sea, on July 15, 2025. Seaman Corrie Gill/U.S. Coast Guard

“80 percent of interdictions of U.S.-bound drugs occur at sea. This underscores the importance of maritime interdiction in combatting the flow of illegal narcotics and protecting American communities from this deadly threat,” USCG said.

In total, 17,700 pounds of cocaine were seized through the interdiction of four drug-transporting vessels in international waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

One of the drug vessels was boarded by Seneca’s crew on Jan. 25, seizing 4,410 pounds of cocaine. On Jan. 31, crew members boarded three vessels, taking custody of 13,340 pounds of cocaine, the statement said.

The detection and monitoring of illegal drug transit by air and sea are conducted by the U.S. Southern Command’s Joint Interagency Task Force-South, based in Key West. Once it is determined that the vessel must be interdicted, the USCG takes control of the operation, boards the vessel, and apprehends it.

“I am extremely proud of the crew’s incredible performance and adaptability during this deployment,” said Capt. Lee Jones, commanding officer of Coast Guard Cutter Seneca.

“This deployment demonstrates our enhanced posture and continued success in the fight against narco-terrorism and transnational criminal organizations.

“The Coast Guard, in conjunction with our inter-agency and international partners, continues to patrol areas commonly associated with drug trafficking in the Eastern Pacific, denying smugglers access to maritime routes by which they move illicit drugs to our U.S. land and sea borders.”

According to the agency, the Coast Guard is accelerating its crackdown on drug trafficking in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in support of Operation Pacific Viper, aiming to protect the United States from the flow of illicit narcotics from South America.

Operation Pacific Viper, launched in early August last year, directs U.S. forces to the Eastern Pacific region to counter cartel and criminal groups, seeking to cut off drug and human smuggling before they hit U.S. shores.

In early December 2025, USCG said in a statement that it had seized more than 150,000 pounds of cocaine from the Eastern Pacific Ocean, which it said was enough to create more than “57 million potentially lethal doses.”

In a Feb. 14 statement, USCG announced the seizure of two vessels containing $5.6 million in illicit narcotics off Port Everglades. Authorities seized roughly 745 pounds of cocaine by interdicting two suspected drug trafficking vessels.

“The Coast Guard is in the business of saving lives, and every kilogram of these drugs kept off our streets represents lives saved,” said Lt. Justin Dadlani, commanding officer of Station Fort Lauderdale.

“I couldn’t be more proud of the professionalism of the crew and our continued partnerships with our partners with Customs and Border Protection and Homeland Security Investigations.”

On Feb. 15, the agency announced that its Cutter Forrest Rednour had interdicted 14 suspected illegal immigrants aboard a vessel 18 miles from San Diego, with all of them claiming to be Mexican nationals.

Earlier on Jan. 27, the Coast Guard said they had interdicted three suspected illegal immigrants from Mexico in two vessels, seven miles off Imperial Beach, California.

On Jan. 21, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said the Coast Guard notified the agency of a suspicious vessel traveling toward Puerto Rico. Upon investigation, CBP agents found 12 migrants from Russia and Uzbekistan aboard. The interception took place on Jan. 13.

“This successful outcome highlights the strong partnerships between the Coast Guard, Customs and Border Protection, and all federal and local law enforcement partners in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,” said Capt. Robert E. Stiles, Sector San Juan deputy.

“Our daily unified coordination, shared capabilities, and synchronized response efforts are instrumental to safeguarding our nation’s Caribbean maritime borders against illicit smuggling activities.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 11:25

Epstein Funded UCSD Study Of 'Telepathic Autistic Savant' Through Deepak Chopra Connection

Jeffrey Epstein was connected with several notable scientists - funding leading research centers, including Harvard, where he donated $9 million, and MIT's Media Lab, which he gave at least $7.5 million (and funneled another $1.2 million to investments under the control of the lab's former director, Joi Ito). He was connected to Stephen Hawking, Marvin Minsky, Steven Pinker and a host of other names. 

Vilayanur Subramanian Ramachandran and Jeffrey Epstein

Now we learn that Epstein provided funding to a lab at UC San Diego after lifestyle guru Deepak Chopra introduced the financier to lab director Vilayanur Subramanian Ramachandran - a neuroscientist who was studying an "autistic savant who displays telepathy," according to the latest DOJ Epstein file dump. 

Chopra, a former UCSD family medicine and public health clinical professor, said in late October that he was just helping Epstein with insomnia by teaching him to meditate. "At my suggestion, he also visited Dr. V.S. Ramachandran's lab at [the University of California San Diego] to learn about ongoing brain research," he told CBS News in December. 

EFTA01013830.pdf

Ramachandran was conducting a study on an "autistic savant who displays telepathy," according to UCSD's The Guardian, citing a Sept. 25, 2017 email with the subject "Cost to study the autistic savant who displays telepathy," in which he tells Chopra, "i don't have a problem with my lab being funded by epstein ... so long as theres no UC connection." 

Ramanchandran further wrote that if Chopra’s “pal [Epstein] is serious about setting in motion a lab for the study of extraordinary brain potential … something like 500,000 to 3 million would get the administrators excited.”

A subsequent email from Epstein to his accountant, Richard Kahn, instructed Kahn to send $25,000 from Epstein’s private foundation, Gratitude America Ltd., to the University of California Board of Regents to fund Ramachandran’s research on savant syndrome. He asked it to be mailed to former psychology department director and current chief administrative officer, Peter Hinkley. 

Chopra later emailed Epstein on October 5, 2017 to provide an update on spending the day with Ramachandran to discuss the "pilot study of autistic savants."

Ceepak Chopra

The 2017 emails weren't the first Epstein-Ramachandran mention. On April 17, 2009, Epstein emailed someone whose name was redacted, replying to a list of "smart" and "out of the box" people to have over to his Florida home sometime in the future. Epstein included Ramachandran in this list, along with others who he described as "good friends of mine for years." 

While there's nothing we could find on the telepathic kid (maybe they sensed danger), Ramachandran did write an article in December 2006 where he says telepathy is "legitimately ignored, except by crackpots" because it's difficult to replicate. He's also mentioned a few times in this piece on life after death, ESP, and other phenomenon.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 11:05

Epstein Ally Was Talking To Feds About Flip, Wanted $3 Million To Keep Quiet, Then Backed Off Deal

French modeling agent Jean-Luc Brunel - whose network delivered new girls from around the world to Jeffrey Epstein on a regular basis, was prepared in 2016 to tell U.S. prosecutors what he knew about Epstein’s sex-trafficking operation. According to newly released files from the DOJ, the now-deceased Brunel’s lawyer was negotiating with attorneys for Epstein’s victims about a possible meeting with federal prosecutors in New York in exchange for immunity - and Epstein knew it. And of course, Goldman Sachs (soon to be ex-) General Counsel Kathy Ruemmler is involved.

Jeffrey Epstein and Jean-Luc Brunel in an undated photo. Justice Department

According to handwritten notes taken by a federal prosecutor in February 2016 state: "One of Epstein’s bfs, Jean Luc Brunel, has helped get girls. He is wanting to cooperate." The notes add: "Brunel is afraid of being prosecuted," the Wall Street Journal reports.

Notes by a federal prosecutor in 2016 regarding potential testimony by Brunel. Justice Department

The discussions contemplated a date for Brunel to walk into the U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan. His lawyer said Brunel had recruited girls for Epstein and possessed incriminating photographs, according to the notes.

Then Brunel stopped communicating.

The files indicate that Epstein learned negotiations were underway. On May 3, 2016, Epstein emailed Ruemmler, a top Obama administration attorney who recently announced her resignation over the friendship. Epstein warned that Brunel planned to approach the U.S. Attorney’s office the following week - noting that one of Brunel’s friends had "asked for 3 million dollars so that Jean Luc would not go in."

Epstein said Brunel feared arrest if he did not appear. "I want to know more," he wrote, dismissing Brunel’s lawyer and friend as "scammers."

Ruemmler replied hours later, asking Epstein to call and explain. The next day she wrote: "Awake now. Talking to Poe in 20 mins." Gregory Poe was Epstein’s lawyer in Washington, D.C.

Poe claims he didn't speak with Ruemmler or Epstein about Brunel "on May 4, 2016 or at any other time," telling the Journal that he had a scheduled call that day with Ruemmler about his work on a motion to quash a subpoena directed at Epstein. "My engagement by Jeffrey Epstein was limited," Poe said, adding that he terminated work for Epstein in August 2016.

It remains unclear why Brunel ultimately declined to cooperate, or whether Epstein gave him $3 million not to. What is clear from the files is that no investigation was opened at the time. A 2021 government court filing states that the prosecutor who took the February 2016 notes discussed the meeting with colleagues at the U.S. Attorney’s office and the FBI, but no probe was initiated. The notes referencing Brunel were redacted in that filing. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s office in New York declined to comment.

Epstein and Brunel during a birthday party for Epstein. Justice Department

Epstein remained free for another three years, until his arrest in 2019. He died in a New York jail cell later that year in what the city’s medical examiner ruled a suicide.

"It set us back a couple of years," said David Boies, an attorney who filed civil suits on behalf of Epstein victims, referring to Brunel’s decision not to cooperate. "We know from our lawsuits that there were more than 50 girls that were trafficked after this."

Brunel occupied a central place in Epstein’s orbit. As head of a U.S.-based modeling agency, he recruited foreign girls and young women, secured work visas and provided the appearance of legitimate employment, according to the files. He traveled on Epstein’s private jet, visited his private island and exchanged hundreds of emails with him.

Federal prosecutors in New York were briefed in 2016 on details of Epstein’s trafficking scheme, including allegations that Brunel, Ghislaine Maxwell and others recruited dozens of underage girls, the handwritten notes show. The Justice Department did not move on Epstein until after a Miami Herald investigation in late 2018 renewed scrutiny of his earlier plea agreement in Florida.

When Epstein was arrested in 2019, Brunel and Maxwell were identified as co-conspirators in the FBI investigative file, according to the documents. Maxwell was convicted in 2021 and is serving a 20-year prison sentence.

Joseph Titone, Brunel’s attorney, said he advised his client to cooperate with authorities and cut ties with Epstein. "I recommended and advised him to stop communicating with Epstein, but he never did," Titone said.

Brunel was arrested in France in 2020 on allegations of rape and supplying girls to Epstein. He died in jail in 2022. Prosecutors in Paris said Saturday they would re-examine the case and create a special team to analyze evidence that could implicate French nationals.

Ruemmler has said she never represented Epstein and regretted her association with him. A spokeswoman, Jennifer Connelly, said, "This was another instance of Epstein attempting to engage Ms. Ruemmler on a matter about which she had no knowledge, and she appropriately directed him to his legal counsel." Connelly declined to specify which counsel.

As details of Ruemmler’s communications with Epstein became public in the recent files, she said last week she would resign in June from her position as general counsel of Goldman Sachs.

A Modeling Agency as Pipeline

Brunel was always a creep, even before he met Epstein. In 1988, CBS’s "60 Minutes" aired an investigation featuring women who said they were drugged by Brunel and pressured to have sex with his associates to obtain modeling work. One woman alleged on camera that Brunel had drugged and raped her. No criminal charges were filed, and Brunel denied the allegations.

By the early 2000s, Brunel and Epstein had developed a close relationship. Flight logs show Brunel frequently traveled on Epstein’s private jet beginning around 2000.

In 2005, Epstein wired up to $1 million to help Brunel launch MC2 Model Management, which opened offices in New York and Miami. According to the report, the MC2 was an inside joke, referring to the equation E=MC², with the E referring to Epstein.

According to the new files, Epstein used the agency to procure women and as a payroll vehicle. Emails from July 2006 show Epstein instructing Brunel to put a woman "on your payroll" at a $50,000 annual salary. When Brunel asked whether the woman should scout models, Epstein replied: "Start salary as soon as possible." He added that he would be in Paris the following week and "could see her then."

After Epstein pleaded guilty in Florida in 2008 to procuring a minor for prostitution and served jail time, Brunel visited him nearly 70 times, according to jail logs.

Control Through Visas and Debt

Following his 2006 arrest in Florida, Epstein focused on recruiting women in their late teens and 20s from Europe and Russia, the files indicate. Dependent on work visas, housing and financial support, they were vulnerable to control.

In June 2012, Joshua Fink - son of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink - emailed Brunel about an MC2 invoice concerning a 'model' he was 'dating'... Brunel said he would suspend billing. When Brunel forwarded the exchange to Epstein, Epstein replied: "Talk to me first please."

The invoice related to a work visa through the agency. The woman had forwarded chat logs with Fink to Epstein, including messages in which Fink wrote: "And with your visa, I have no idea what it is I can do beyond pay your agency to supplent (sic) your income and theirs because you are not getting work as a model."

Fink said he met the woman at a dinner party and had a romantic relationship lasting about a year. "I had no relationship with Epstein or Brunel," he said. "I am totally shocked that she was forwarding electronic correspondence to Epstein." He said he loaned her money to settle debts with the agency.

"It was a personal relationship, and personal things happen," Fink added. 

The woman told the Journal she felt trapped in a web of abuse controlled by Epstein and Brunel. After signing with MC2 and obtaining a work visa, she said, modeling jobs dwindled while fees mounted. She described the relationship with Fink as consensual and a potential escape. She said Epstein blocked plans for Fink to meet her in Paris to discuss marriage, and the relationship ended.

Brad Edwards, a lawyer representing more than 200 Epstein victims, said, "Epstein’s wealth and power allowed him to infiltrate industries, perhaps most pervasively the modeling industry. He found in Jean-Luc a like-minded predator with whom he could conspire on a daily basis to recruit and control the lives of countless young women, including Jane Doe."

Fracture and Reconciliation - a ruse?

In 2014, Virginia Roberts Giuffre filed a motion alleging Brunel trafficked girls as young as 12 to his associates, including Epstein. As public scrutiny intensified, Brunel and MC2 sued Epstein in Florida in January 2016 - claiming the agency’s value had collapsed due to notoriety surrounding Epstein. The suit alleged up to $10 million in lost profits and difficulty recruiting models.

Titone later contacted Edwards, suggesting Brunel might possess photographic evidence against Epstein. Victims’ attorneys, including Stan Pottinger and Boies, relayed information to federal prosecutors.

By early 2016, Brunel appeared ready to cooperate. The Feb. 29, 2016 notes state: "Titone says his client has photographic evidence." They also note: "Brunel doesn’t want to implicate himself."

Epstein and Brunel with women whose faces have been redacted. Justice Department

On May 3, 2016, Pottinger wrote to a prosecutor referencing Daniel Siad, whom Brunel described as a recruiter for Epstein. Emails show Siad updating Epstein about potential recruits and writing, "please send me the details of the girls names etc." In another message, Siad compared recruiting to fishing: "In This busyness I feel like fisherman some time I cache quick , some time no fish." He itemized expenses of 2,700 euros.

Siad later said in a video broadcast in France that he introduced models to Epstein professionally. "With time, we have learnt that he committed atrocities," he said.

The breach between Brunel and Epstein proved temporary (perhaps as designed). By April 2015, Brunel proposed mediation, and Epstein wrote: "I have some ideas. that I think you will like." Titone said the lawsuit was eventually settled under confidential terms.

When Epstein was found dead in 2019, Brunel went into hiding. French police arrested him in December 2020 as he attempted to board a flight to Senegal. He was charged with sex crimes and, in February 2022, was found hanged in his prison cell.

The Justice Department files suggest that in 2016, a potential turning point slipped away. Brunel did not walk into the U.S. Attorney’s office. The investigation did not advance. And Epstein continued recruiting victims for years afterward.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:55

Rep. Khanna To Force Vote On Iran War Powers: 'Another Endless Dumb Foreign War'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) said on Wednesday that he will force a vote on a War Powers Resolution meant to prevent President Trump from attacking Iran without congressional authorization, as required by the Constitution.

The resolution was introduced by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Khanna, and several other Democrats back in June 2025 amid the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran, but a ceasefire was reached before a vote was held. Massie was the original sponsor, and the legislation currently has 77 co-sponsors, all Democrats.

CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

Americans can contact their House representative and urge them to support H.Con.Res.38 to prevent a disastrous war with Iran, which appears imminent amid the major US military buildup in the region.

"Trump officials say there’s a 90% chance of strikes on Iran. He can’t without Congress," Khanna wrote on X. "[Massie] & I have a War Powers Resolution to debate & vote on war before putting US troops in harm’s way. I will make a motion to discharge to force a vote on it next week."

The California congressman said that he supported diplomatic efforts with Iran but that if "Trump is preparing to bomb Iran soon & others call for troops on the ground, Congress must get on the record so Americans know where their representatives stand."

"Like the votes before the Iraq war, this could be one of the most consequential votes in the history of Congress. Are we going to stop another endless dumb foreign war? Or will the neoconservatives mislead us once again?" he added.

Multiple media reports have said that a US attack on Iran could happen in the coming days or weeks, and all signs indicate it could trigger a much bigger conflict than the 12-Day War, and that Iran wouldn’t hold back in its response.

Tens of thousands of US military personnel in the Middle East are in range of Iranian missiles. Tehran has vowed immediate retaliation if hit with an unprovoked US or Israeli attack.

⚡️#BREAKING Two more American E-3C Sentry radar aircraft in the skies over Tel Aviv on their way to Saudi Arabia. pic.twitter.com/xsWKIt9asq

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) February 19, 2026

"A war with Iran would be catastrophic. Iran is a complex society of 90 million people with significant air defenses and military capabilities," Khanna said.

"We also have 30-40k US troops in the region who could be at risk of retaliation. Congress must do its job and stop this march to war."

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:45

New OpenAI Funding Round Could Top $100 Billion, Pushing Valuation North Of $850 Billion

OpenAI's private valuation could soon top $850 billion, as the first tranche of a new funding round is expected to raise more than $100 billion, giving the ChatGPT maker fresh powder for additional infrastructure spending and faster development of its AI tools, Bloomberg reported.

People familiar with the fundraising told the outlet that the ChatGPT maker's valuation could exceed $850 billion, with a reported pre-money valuation of $730 billion.

The first phase of the funding round is being led by Amazon, SoftBank Group, Nvidia, and Microsoft, with allocations potentially finalized by the end of this month.

A second phase of funding could include venture firms, sovereign wealth funds, and other investors, potentially pushing the total fundraising even higher.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati told clients earlier that OpenAI's new funding round "highlights the escalating capital intensity of AI development and deepening strategic alignment between OpenAI and Big Tech."

Bloomberg hedged the report by indicating the "deal is not yet finalized and the details could change."

Shares of SoftBank, which held an 11% stake in OpenAI as of December, jumped as much as 4% on the news during Tokyo trading. Shares closed up 2.6% and have remained flat year-to-date after peaking in October 2025.

OpenAI's potentially stunning private-market valuation comes after Anthropic was valued at about $350 billion in its latest Series G funding round led by GIC and Coatue.

Markets are pricing in a world in which US AI giants capture an outsized share of global AI revenue, control the highest-margin layers of the stack, and retain pricing power as customers continue to pay up. The key risk we see is duration in the AI story, and this may be a harder narrative to maintain as the technological gap between US and Chinese AI models narrows.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:30

Iran Will Be "Finding Out" Over Next 10 Days, Trump Says, But Asserts "Good Talks"

Update(1021ET): As has become typical, President Trump is all over the place - his intentions ever more difficult to interpret - at a moment the media has highlighted Iraq war levels of military build-up in the Middle East with an eye on potential attack on Iran.

On Thursday he oversaw the inaugural meeting in Washington DC of the Board of Peace related to Gaza. In televised remarks he surprisingly called tense negotiations with Iran "good talks". But then he immediately pivoted to escalating things a "step further" - which seems a strong hint at launching a regime change war.

"Now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not," Trump added later. Then he set somewhat of a timeline, "You’re going to be finding out over the next, probably, 10 days." Watch the president's fresh remarks:

Trump at his "Board of Peace" on Iran: "Now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not. You're gonna be finding over the next probably 10 days." pic.twitter.com/itAUoc2pPH

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 19, 2026

* * *

Oil prices climbed early Thursday as markets zeroed in on the prospect of US action against Iran, lifting energy shares alongside crude - with West Texas Intermediate above $66 a barrel. The US military build-up in the Middle East means Iran's window to reach a diplomatic agreement over its atomic activities - which Tehran insists is for peaceful domestic energy purposes - is at risk of closing fast, according to the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog speaking to Bloomberg Television. 

At this moment the Trump-assembled armada threatening Iran includes two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of jets, and advanced air defenses. Over 150 US military cargo flights have delivered weapons to the Middle East this month, with a surge of aircraft still headed to the region. Some say the build-up is already nearing Iraq war levels.

Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi underscored the clock is ticking. "There is not much time but we are working on something concrete," said Grossi, in reference to meetings in Geneva with Iranian diplomats. "There are a couple of solutions the IAEA has proposed.

IAEA inspectors haven't verified the state of Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium or assessed the scope of damage dealt to enrichment facilities for more than eight months.

Ironically enough, it was the unprovoked surprise Israeli and US attacks which shut the door on such inspections, also after the White House itself insisted on several occasions that the Islamic Republic's nuclear program was "obliterated" in the series of US bunker-buster bomb attacks on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Which is it?

Bloomberg and various analysts have speculated that before the Israeli attacks in June, Iran had enough highly-enriched material to quickly craft about a dozen warheads, assuming the scenario Tehran issued the order to weaponize its nuclear program.

Grossi said he also met with Trump’s envoys on Tuesday in Geneva, alongside the IAEA's some six hours of meetings with Iranian diplomats. He asserted that an IAEA return to the damaged facilities in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz "hinges on the possibility of a wider type of agreement."

"We are conscious of the fact that there is this political negotiation," Grossi added. However, the Iranians are likely going to remain deeply distrustful of the UN watchdog and Grossi himself, given that the surprise June attack resulted in Iranian officials accusing the IAEA team of leaking sensitive data on Iranian facilities to Israel.

This is perhaps why Grossi himself appears pessimistic when commenting on the potential the forge a new deal before US military action ensues.  "There cannot be a deal if the IAEA isn’t able to verify," said Grossi, who described to Bloomberg he's seeking a solution by threading the red lines set by both sides.

"It’s not impossible," he said. "There are certain things that Iran understands cannot be pursued. We have to provide the watertight verification there is no deviation."

Some reports say a US attack on Iran could come as early as this weekend...

Major US naval, air buildup in the Middle East sets stage for potential Iran war.

CNN and CBS reported Wednesday that the US military will be ready to launch strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, though Trump has reportedly not made a final decision yet… pic.twitter.com/cRJOwP2PY8

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 19, 2026

As the second US carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is about to enter the Mediterranean while headed toward the CENTCOM area of responsibility, regional analyst Levent Kemal observes, "The US military buildup in the Middle East is going beyond dialogue or gunboat diplomacy. This is clearly an important preparation for a war aimed at removing the Iranian regime from the regional power balance equation."

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:21

The US Must Be Confident It Has A Plan In Place To Lower Oil Prices Once It Strikes Iran

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Lots Of Xs Vs Lots Of Ys

US vs. Iran: The media today talk of a “90% chance of war” and “as soon as Saturday.” We’ve long stressed there’s a high likelihood of a fresh US-Iran conflict, recent US logistics movements said soon, and an Axios headline yesterday refocused oil markets on it. The balance of risks now tilts to a US strike after market close Friday, even if the materiel moved to the Middle East suggests any attack is likely to last weeks rather than being over by the Monday open. One caveat is Secretary of State Rubio is set to meet with PM Netanyahu in Israel on February 28, hard to achieve if missiles are flying. Yet Israel is preparing for exactly that. Indeed, expectations are Iran will retaliate across the region, potentially via terror cells in the West (including in Europe), and perhaps in Hormuz directly if the regime sees itself as at risk. The broader region is flammable too, with tensions running: Egypt vs Ethiopia vs Eritrea; Somalia vs Somaliland; Sudan vs South Sudan; Yemen vs South Yemen; and the Saudis (and Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan) vs the UAE (and Israel and nuclear-armed India).

To say that this could be market- and geopolitics-moving is an understatement. Oil, and presumably LNG, prices would spike. How quickly they come down would depend on exactly how this plays out. The US must be confident that it has a plan in place to mitigate these kinds of risks. It certainly did, in a much less risky environment, in Venezuela.

The Fed: The latest minutes were significantly more hawkish than expected. Indeed, the Bloomberg take, accurate or not, is that several members may be leaning towards rate hikes not rates cuts. Given we are months away from the appointment of a new Fed Chair who wants to see the latter, that sets the Eccles Building up for some serious conflict ahead. Indeed, note the colliding views on what the AI revolution means for the US economy. Warsh, based on some optimistic thinking, says it means lower rates; Barr and Daly, based on surrealistic thinking, say it means higher rates. Our US strategist is sticking with 3 cuts this year for now, starting from June (see here).

The ECB: President Lagarde is going to step down early, setting off a scramble for succession. Our ECB team do an excellent job of working through the labyrinth of Byzantine European monetary politics in this report. In a nutshell, it’s not so much about policy preference, or protecting the ECB from the pollutant of political populism, nor about the presidency per se; rather, it’s potentially perpetuating an ECB executive board seat for France. And what would any key European decision be without France trying to do that? C’est la guerre, c’est Lagarde. (And does she have a better gig lined up? The whisper had been Davos leadership, but post-Trump’s stomp on it, is that still a step up?)

The RBA vs. the government: Strong wages growth and jobs data keep the pressure on the Reserve Bank. Private sector wages were +3.4% y-o-y in Q4 and public sector +4%. Jobs growth in January was 17.8K, broadly in line with expectations, but with a surge in full-time employment of over 50K, while unemployment fell a tick to a near-historic low of 4.1%. Yes, there are questions about data quality, population growth, and AI, even if Australia is hardly at the cutting edge in that key area. But what excuses can the RBA keep finding not to be hawkish, even if that eventually sets up a collision with the housing market? There’s already one underway between former RBA Governor Lowe and the government, the former saying the latter needs to stop spending to get rates down again, the latter saying that’s just a personal vendetta.  

The BOE: Reform Party not-Shadow Chancellor Jenrick pledged to retain BOE independence and the Office for Budget Responsibility, while…. drum roll… reforming both. The BOE will be stripped of political goals and a climate mandate, with a focus purely on inflation: QE was mentioned as a bad thing. The OBR is to change its models, with competitions to see which forecaster is most accurate in calling growth and the budget deficit right (as if it’s the salary that makes forecasting hard). He also spoke of making The City a ‘crypto leader’… but is that in Bitcoin, dollar stablecoins, or Euro or sterling ones? Expect major collisions on that front both between legacy banking and crypto, and between crypto players… albeit only from 2029 onwards, barring a political shock.

France vs Germany: Aside from ECB politics, Chancellor Merz has just said that the Eurofighter project that was supposed to be built between France and Germany ‘fails to meet Germany’s needs’. That follows similar recent spats over protectionism and trade deals. More broadly, as Germany rearms, adding military muscle to its existing, if shrinking, economic heft, Franco-German tensions are only going to increase on multiple fronts, forging new intra-EU alliances to emerge.

Canada vs the US: ‘Carney offers to ‘broker a bridge’ to build giant anti-Trump trade club’ - joining the EU with the CPTPP’s Canada, Mexico, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and other Pacific nations. Really? Mexico is deepening trade integration with the US behind a de facto common external tariff. The UK is trying to get back in with the EU via dynamic regulatory alignment, but the benefits are likely to be low given businesses know Reform could win the next election and reverse it. Japan is all in on the US. Australia is close to an FTA with the EU, NZ has one, and both rely entirely on the US security umbrella. The smaller Asian economies are linked to China, with US trade deals not allowing transshipment. And almost all those countries want to net export to the US. With USMCA renegotiation months away, does Canada think this is leverage when the US holds the best cards?

Green vs not green: ‘US pressures global energy body to drop net zero modeling’. “US Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the call to other energy ministers at a closed-door ministerial meeting of the International Energy Agency in Paris on Wednesday, two people who were part of the discussions told POLITICO. The comments met with a muted response from other ministers, the people said…. It comes just a day after Wright publicly threatened to quit the organization unless it abandoned its focus on the energy transition… Wright said the agency should stop basing its modeling on assumptions that it's possible to cut emissions to zero, arguing such targets will never be met… Doing away with those baseline assumptions would be a significant shift for the IEA, which has made them central to forecasts that have in turn formed the basis of global political decision-making around the green transition and underpinned billions in green energy investments.”

Free speech vs hate speech: Welcome to glasnost, reverse-Gorbachev style. Reuters reports the Trump admin is to set up a website, Freedom.org, as a portal which everyone globally can use to access whatever information or apps that they want, regardless of what their own governments won’t let them see for various reasons. This would apparently operate via a permanent VPN. Obviously, this is going to cause tensions with the likes of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea… and Australia, the UK, and much of Europe. (Many readers will nod at immediately: but stop for a moment and think just how bizarre that would have read 10 years ago.)

Young vs. Old: ‘Over 65? Congratulations, You Own the Economy’. As the Wall Street Journal puts it, “The elderly are physically and financially healthier than ever. So why do their needs keep taking priority over younger generations?”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:15

US Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low Despite Falling Mortgage Rates

After plunging in December (biggest drop since COVID), US Pending Home Sales disappointed once again with a modest 0.8% MoM decline in January (+2.0% MoM exp). This left sales down 1.23% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

This left the Pending Home Sales Index at a record low...

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage rates continued to slide... so WTF is holding buyers back?

Source: Bloomberg

“Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Yun cautioned that the mix of lower mortgage rates and a still-tight supply of houses could cause home prices to start rising quickly again, assuming the lower borrowing costs encourage more buyers.

“This will put increasing pressure on affordability, which is why it is critical to increase supply by building more homes,” Yun said.

Weather could have impacted sales as sales were weakest in the NorthEast and South - where the winter storm was most impactful.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 10:10

PJM Board Approves $11.8BN Transmission Expansion Plan

By Ethan Howland Of UtilityDive

The PJM Interconnection’s board last week approved $11.8 billion in baseline transmission projects, with Dominion Energy’s Virginia utility landing roughly $4.8 billion in those projects.

The projects are part of PJM’s 2025 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan Window 1, which is designed to bolster grid reliability that is strained by accelerated load growth in multiple areas across its Mid-Atlantic and Midwest footprint.

The projects are also needed to handle new generation in southern Virginia, future generation in western PJM, delays to New Jersey offshore wind projects and increased regional flows toward the eastern parts of PJM’s footprint, the grid operator said Friday.

PJM will monitor load and generation in its footprint to make sure needed transmission development is progressing in a timely manner, the grid operator said in its board-approved plan.

DataBank’s IAD4 data center under construction in Ashburn, Va

“PJM also clarified that siting, routing and regulatory processes, as well as construction, take a long time, and PJM needs the plan to be ready and advanced for the forecasted conditions proactively rather than bringing needed development late, which introduces impediments to development and reliability risks to stakeholders,” the grid operator said.

Meanwhile, transmission costs are making up a growing share of the price of wholesale electricity in PJM.

In 2024, transmission contributed $17.71/MWh to the cost of wholesale power in PJM, up 23%, or 5.8% a year, from $14.40/MWh in 2022, according to reports from Monitoring Analytics, PJM’s market monitor.

Transmission costs totaled $13.9 billion, or 32% of total wholesale costs of $43.6 billion, in 2024, the last full year of Monitoring Analytics’ reporting. Energy costs made up nearly 59% of the cost of wholesale power that year and capacity accounted for 6.6% of the total.

As part of PJM’s transmission expansion plan, Dominion Energy Virginia intends to build a $2.3-billion, 525-kV underground “backbone” transmission line in Virginia. The project, set to be online by June 2032, also calls for building two high-voltage direct current converter stations at each end of the 185-mile line for about $1.5 billion.

The project is designed to deliver 3,000 MW into Loudoun County in northern Virginia, the area with the most data center capacity in the world.

Like other multi-zone projects in the RTEP, the costs of the project will be shared across PJM’s footprint.

The just-approved plan also includes a $1.7-billion transmission line across central Pennsylvania proposed by NextEra Energy Transmission and Exelon. The project was opposed by Pennsylvania’s Office of Consumer Advocate, which argued that there were less expensive alternatives to the project.

The project addresses system-wide, structural reliability needs in PJM’s northeastern region that cannot be met with incremental upgrades or “terminal-only” solutions, NextEra and Exelon said in a Jan. 29 letter to PJM’s board.

“PJM’s own analyses and the convergence of independent developer proposals, demonstrates that new high-voltage backbone infrastructure is required to maintain reliable service under plausible future conditions,” the companies said. The project is slated to be operating by June 2031.

The transmission plan includes a $1.1 billion project in central Ohio proposed by Grid Growth Ventures, a joint venture between Transource Energy — a partnership between American Electric Power and Evergy — and FirstEnergy Transmission. The project includes 300 miles of 765-kV lines.

Under the plan, PPL Electric will build transmission projects totaling about $580 million, while Exelon subsidiaries Commonwealth Edison and Potomac Electric Power Co. will build projects totaling about $276 million and $292 million, respectively.

PJM’s RTEPs for 2024 and 2023 included $5.9 billion and $6.6 billion in baseline projects.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 09:50

Bill Gates Pulls Out Of High-Profile Indian AI Summit As Epstein Fallout Accelerates

The Epstein fallout continues to spread by the day, with billionaire Les Wexner saying he was "conned" by Jeffrey Epstein and insisting he "did nothing wrong" earlier this week, and with Prince Andrew (Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor) being arrested on Thursday morning over allegations that he shared confidential government trade documents with Epstein.

Now, Bill Gates has pulled out of a keynote speech at a high-profile global AI summit in India amid the accelerating Epstein fallout.

pic.twitter.com/tGJtEQS97E

— Gates Foundation India (@BMGFIndia) February 19, 2026

"After careful consideration, and to ensure the focus remains on the AI Summit's key priorities, Mr. Gates will not be delivering his keynote address. The Gates Foundation will be represented by Ankur Vora, President of Africa and India Offices, who will speak later today at the Summit," Gates Foundation India wrote on X.

The $86 billion philanthropic body's last-minute decision to yank Gates out of a keynote address follows the billionaire's involvement with Epstein for several years.

The Gates Foundation CEO recently told employees during a town hall event that the Gates-Epstein relationship had deeply tarnished the nonprofit's reputation, according to a Financial Times report.

Related:

• "I Deeply Regret": Bill Gates, Reid Hoffman Deny Epstein Malarkey, And Here's Some Weird Sh*t

• New Mexico Launches Probe Into What Happened At Epstein's 'Zorro Ranch'

• Epstein Ally Was Talking To Feds About Flip, Wanted $3 Million To Keep Quiet, Then Backed Off Deal

We asked earlier...

Hey @CERAWeek you still going with Bill Gates? https://t.co/za6L33BlOj pic.twitter.com/WsIPUddlgl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2026

It is important to note that Gates has not been accused of involvement in Epstein's sexual abuse. However, draft emails in the Epstein files show that the billionaire allegedly tried to hide a sexually transmitted disease from his then-wife, Melinda French Gates, after a sexual encounter with "Russian girls."

• Latest Epstein Emails Reveal Bill Gates Slipped Wife Antibiotics For STD He Got From Russian Hookers

FT cited a spokesperson for Gates who has said the claims are "absolutely absurd and completely false", demonstrating only Epstein's "frustration that he did not have an ongoing relationship with Gates." The billionaire has publicly said that he "regrets ever having engaged with Epstein."

Last week:

• Goldman Sacks Ruemmler As Epstein Scandal ClaimsObama'ss Former Lawyer

And this...

Top of Bloomberg this morning, and three days later https://t.co/eADn08Kzdo pic.twitter.com/c3t4cCrWEQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2026

Who gets caught up next in the Epstein fallout?

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:55

US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Worsens As Exports Slump Again In December

For the second month in a row, US exports declined and imports rose in December, pushing the US trade balance significantly deeper into deficit.

Imports rose (+3.6% vs +0.1% MoM exp) and exports fell (-1.7% vs +0.1% MoM exp) for the second month in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Industrial Supplies appears to have seen the biggest shift in trade...

Gold imports fell back near their lowest since 2019...

The result of all this is a second monthly decline in the trade balance (worsening deficit)...

...dramatically worse than the Trump-bragged-about October highs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:51

Futures Slide As Iran War Risks Add To Growing AI Disruption Fears; Oil Surges

Equity futures and global markets are lower, ending a modest rebound in US stocks as concerns about a possible war with US and simmering angst over AI dent the fragile optimism seen on Wednesday. Oil extended its rally after its best day since 2021. Tech and small caps underperform which to JPMorgan's market intel desk "feels more like profit-taking and position squaring as US / Iran tensions spike with Trump saying a deal is preferred but that a strike may occur as soon as this weekend." As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, erasing an overnight gain, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.3%, with premarket weakness across all sectors ex-Energy and Aerospace/Def and tech came under renewed pressure; most Mag 7 members dropped in premarket trading. Futures dropped after the head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned that Iran’s window for diplomacy is at risk of closing. As for AI, IG’s chief market analyst Alexandre Baradez says there “seems to be no long-short strategy at play,” with hyperscaler capex and disruption to software firms both causing concern. WTI crude continues to rise and is trading at $66 after it added $2.86 /+4.6% yesterday, its strongest day since 2021. At some point Trump will have to decide if he wants war with Iran or risk soaring gas prices into the midterms. Treasuries extended their slide, pushing yields higher by 1-2bps, while the dollar was flat. Gold erased an advance above $5,000 an ounce. Today’s macro data focus is on Jobless data and the Leading Index

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Microsoft +0.3%, Amazon -0.2%, Alphabet -0.2%, Nvidia -0.2%, Apple -0.4%, Meta Platforms -0.5%, Tesla -0.6%)

• Avis Budget (CAR) falls 16% after the car-rental company forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Carvana (CVNA) plunges 11% after rising costs at the online used-car retailer hit margins. Analysts flag weak retail gross profit per unit.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) falls 5% after the restaurant chain’s comp sales during the fourth quarter came in below the average analyst estimate.
• Chewy (CHWY) rises over 3% after Raymond James upgraded to outperform, citing the attractive risk/reward created by recent stock weakness.
• Deere (DE) is up 6% after the company boosted its annual profit outlook as the farm-machinery maker anticipates the agriculture economy will get better soon.
• DoorDash (DASH) rises 9% after the food-delivery company issued a first-quarter orders growth forecast that topped estimates. Evercore ISI notes that fundamentals are improving and that the management’s commentary helped alleviate some investor concerns.
• EPAM Systems (EPAM) slumps 17% after the IT services company forecast its FY revenue growth rate below Wall Street expectations.
• Fiverr International (FVRR) slips 2% after receiving several analyst downgrades, with firms seeing a weaker outlook for the freelance-services marketplace in the wake of its results.
• Herbalife (HLF) rises 12% after the nutrition company said football star Cristiano Ronaldo had invested $7.5 million and provided sponsorship rights for a 10% equity stake in HBL Pro2col Software.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) rises 5% after the telehealth company agreed to acquire Eucalyptus, a digital health company, for up to $1.15 billion.
• Occidental (OXY) climbs 5% after the exploration and production company gave 2026 capital expenditure guidance that was lower than expectations.
• ProPetro (PUMP) rises 3% after the fracturing company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate and grew its contracted power capacity.
• Remitly (RELY) climbs 22% after the international money transfer service provider reported results and issued a forecast that topped analyst expectations.
• Walmart Inc. (WMT) slips 3% after issuing a forecast for full-year earnings that missed higher expectations, flagging the unpredictable state of trade and labor market conditions.
• Wayfair (W) falls 6% after the ecommerce firm reported fourth quarter results.

In corporate news, OpenAI is said to be close to securing the first phase of funding likely to bring in more than $100 billion. Samsung is looking to price its latest AI HBM4 chip up to 30% higher than the previous generation, according to local media. The CEO of Google DeepMind warned about AI risks and called for global cooperation. 

What started off a solid overnight session promptly reversed just around the time Europe opened when futures tumbled into the red after the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned that Iran’s window for a diplomatic deal on its atomic program is closing. Brent rose above $71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $66. The risk of conflict in the Middle East has emerged as a new worry for traders after technology stocks drove sharp swings in recent weeks.

Brent rose above $71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $66. Inflation concerns are already at the forefront of investors’ minds after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting showed several officials suggested that the central bank may need to raise rates if price growth remains stubbornly high.

Investors also remain wary of further slowing in the S&P 500’s strongest driver of the past three years, amid concerns that AI could disrupt entire sectors and that heavy capital spending wouldn’t pay off.

"What’s really interesting is that there seems to be no long-short strategy at play,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “This will continue at least until the next earnings season when we’ll get more insight. In the meantime, all eyes will be on Nvidia’s results next week.”

Indeed, doubts about Big Tech are playing out across the market. As we first showed here yesterday, Morgan Stanley's analysis of 13F filings shows mega-cap tech stocks finished the year the most under-owned relative to their weightings in the S&P 500 in 17 years.

And Goldman Sachs data shows 57% of large-cap mutual funds outperforming their benchmarks year-to-date, the highest share since 2007, with rotation in the equity market leading to a broadening in returns.

Simmering geopolitical risks and still-elevated tech valuations could fuel further rotation out of megacaps and into defensive sectors, said Craig Cameron, a portfolio manager at Templeton Global Investments. Still, the vast amount of capital expenditure shows that exposure to technology remains vital, he said.

“These sectors that are feeding into the AI capex cycle and the electrification cycle, those are the right places to be,” he said. “As valuations move higher, the right thing to do is to move into unloved areas and reduce that overweight over time.”

Walmart and Deere are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Walmart results face a high bar from investors, but the main focus will be guidance and the new CEO will contend with uneven consumer sentiment, fierce competition and a lackluster US labor market.  Earnings from Newmont and Copart follow later in the day.

European stocks retreated from Wednesday’s record close with the Stoxx 600 down 0.7%, after underwhelming earnings from the likes of Airbus and Renault, with investors also monitoring geopolitical risks. Nestle gained after it said sales growth would likely quicken this year. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• FDJ United shares rally as much as 8.8%, the most since July 2024, as the lottery provider’s full-year results meet analysts’ expectations.
• Air France-KLM shares rise as much as 16% to the highest level since September, after the airline operator reported better-than-expected earnings in the fourth quarter.
• Covivio shares advance as much as 9.1%, the most since April 2025, with analysts describing the real estate investment trust’s 2025 performance as solid.
• Azelis shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Belgian chemicals distribution firm posted results which JPMorgan said represented a smaller miss than peer IMCD reported yesterday, which had caused a sharp drop in the stock.
• Tenaris shares rise as much as 6.5% in Milan, climbing to the highest since July 2008, after the steel pipe manufacturer reported robust results.
• Orange shares rise as much as 5.6% to the highest levels since 2010 as investors cheered the telecom operator’s guidance, including a lower capital spending target.
• Nestle shares rise as much as 4.5%, the most since October, after what RBC described as a “decent” fourth-quarter print from the Swiss food giant.
• Arcadis shares plunge as much as 21%, crashing to a 2021 low, after the provider of consulting and engineering services reported earnings that were well below expectations and issued guidance that analysts at Jefferies say will significantly reduce expectations for this year.
• Aegon shares drop as much as 6.8%, the most in two months, after the Dutch insurance group reported a mixed set of earnings and failed to provide an update on its UK strategic review.
• Airbus shares fall as much as 5.9% after the French airplane company forecast commercial aircraft deliveries for 2026 of about 870 planes, lower than most previous estimates.
• Rio Tinto shares decline as much as 4.4% in London, its biggest intraday drop since August, after the miner reported net debt that analysts say missed expectations.
• Euronext drops as much as 5.1% after announcing cost guidance for 2026 that’s higher than consensus expectations, overshadowing its small fourth-quarter beats.
• Centrica shares tumble as much as 9.6%, the steepest drop since July 2024, after the British energy company did not announce a new buyback in its results

Earlier in the session. Asian stocks climbed, led by South Korea. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, extending gains to a second day. Samsung Electronics and Tokyo Electron were among the biggest boosts to the gauge. South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced to a fresh record as markets reopened after a three-day holiday, while benchmarks in Japan and Singapore jumped more than 1%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is a touch higher after dipping in the European morning as EUR/USD and cable briefly reclaimed 1.18 and 1.35 respectively, and USD/JPY slipped below 155. Aussie dollar is near the top of the G-10 pile following following strong jobs data overnight.

In rates, treasuries were on course for their longest losing streak in a month as tensions in the Middle East fuel oil-driven inflation fears. The 10-year yield rose for a third day, up one basis point to 4.09%. Treasury hold small losses into the Thursday open, with yields 1bp to 2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, partially unwinding this week’s flattening trend. Oil prices, up 1.6% near high end of range since August on growing tensions between the US and Iran, add to upside pressure on Treasury yields via increased inflation expectations. US 10-year yield is less than 1bp higher on the day near 4.095% after topping 4.10% for first time this week; German and UK counterparts see steeper increases, adding to pressure on Treasuries. Treasury plans $9 billion 30-year TIPS new issue auction at 1pm New York time. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims, 30-year TIPS auction and several Fed speakers. 

In commodities, oil has continued its climb with Brent making its way onto a $71/bbl handle as Iranian conflict concerns continue to support prices. Axios reported on Wednesday that a major US military operation in the Middle East could begin soon. Upside in energy is supporting global bond yields.  Spot gold has slipped below the $5,000 mark, still up 0.2% but lagging silver, up 1.3%. Bitcoin of course tumbles to LOD. 

US economic calendar slate includes December trade balance, wholesale inventories, February Philadelphia Fed business outlook and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), and December Leading index and January pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic (8:20am), Bowman (8:30am), Kashkari (9am) and Goolsbee (10:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.7%
• DAX -0.9%
• CAC 40 -0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.09%
• VIX +1 points at 20.66
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1189.41
• euro little changed at $1.179
• WTI crude +1% at $65.81/barrel

Top Overnight News

• British Police arrest King Charles' brother Andrew over misconduct relating to Epstein
• U.S. Gathers the Most Air Power in the Mideast Since the 2003 Iraq Invasion: WSJ
• The US military build-up in the Middle East means Iran’s window to reach a diplomatic agreement over its atomic activities is at risk of closing, according to the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog. The International Atomic Energy Agency has discussed concrete proposals with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to inspect sites bombed last year by Israel and the US: BBG
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says the US, and perhaps some Europeans, are discussing a new document between NATO and Russia: BBG
• OpenAI Funding on Track to Top $100 Billion in Latest Round: BBG
• Bill Gates pulls out of India AI summit amid Epstein scrutiny: RTRS
• Epstein Waged a Years-Long Quest to Meet Putin and Talk Finance: BBG
• The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as March or April, Junichi Hanzawa, chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association, says at a regular news briefing in Tokyo
• Swiss watch exports resumed their long slump in January after a brief respite the previous month triggered by the easing of US tariffs: BBG
• France’s strategy to reduce its budget deficit this year remains “very uncertain,” even after the government set less ambitious targets than initially planned, the country’s audit court said: BBG
• Walmart Sales Climb, Driven by Grocery and Online Gains: WSJ
• Walmart Cites Trade, Labor Concerns in Cautious Profit Forecast: BBG
• Top European spies sceptical US will clinch Ukraine peace deal this year: RTRS
• Top Lawyers’ Fees Have Skyrocketed. Be Prepared to Pay $3,400 an Hour: WSJ
• From Paris to New Delhi, the Push to Ban Teens From Social Media Is Going Global: WSJ
• Steve Cohen's $3.4 Billion Payday Tops Hedge Fund Ranks: BBG
• The Far-Fetched Mission to Reclaim Islands That Host a Key U.S. Military Base: WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico. US officials have been increasing pressure on Canada. Canadian officials cited add that their expectation for a full renewal of the USMCA is very low. Officials believe Trump is trying to weaken Canada economically to force it to give up some protectionist policies. The article reminds us that in 2018, the US proposed a bilateral deal with Mexico and told Canada to get on board or be left out.
• US-ASEAN Business Council said US and Indonesian companies signed trade and investment deals covering critical minerals, semiconductors, agriculture and forestry, while deals include a USD 4.89bln semiconductor joint venture involving Essence Global Group. Indonesian firms are to purchase 1mln tons of US soybeans, 1.6mln tons of corn, and 93,000 tons of cotton over an unspecified period.
• US President Trump posted that the US trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries, adds it will go into positive territory during this year for the first time in many decades.
• Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US trade LeBlanc said Canadian companies from various provinces have signed 15 commercial partnerships in Mexico.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher following the positive handover from the US and with South Korea outperforming amid tech strength on return from the Lunar New Year holidays. ASX 200 rallied to a fresh record high with the gains led by strength in telecoms and energy, as the former was boosted alongside Telstra, which reported a 9.3% increase in H1 net profit, while energy stocks benefitted from the rise in underlying oil prices amid geopolitical frictions. Nikkei 225 gained with sentiment underpinned by a weaker currency and stronger-than-expected Machine Tool Orders. KOSPI outperformed on return from the Lunar New Year holiday closure as tech stocks played catch-up to the rebound in their US counterparts, including index heavyweight Samsung Electronics, as its shares rallied by around 5% to a record high.

Top Asian News

• Australian Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%).
• Australian Employment Change (Jan) 17.8K vs. Exp. 20K (Prev. 65.2K, Low. -5K, High. 40K).
• Australian Part Time Employment Chg (Jan) -32.7K (Prev. 10.4K).
• Australian Full Time Employment Chg (Jan) 50.5K (Prev. 54.8K).
• Australian Participation Rate (Jan) 66.7% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.7%).
• Japanese Stock Investment by Foreigners (Feb/14) 1424.2 (Prev. 591.4, Rev. From 543.2).
• Japanese Machinery Orders YoY (Dec) Y/Y 16.8% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. -6.4%, Low. -1.1%, High. 10.6%).
• Japanese Machinery Orders MoM (Dec) M/M 19.1% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. -11.0%, Rev. From -11%, Low. 1%, High. 

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) are entirely in the red. The FTSE MIB (-1.2%), DAX 40 (-0.9%) and CAC 40 (-0.8%) are the clear underperformers after a flurry of corporate news. European sectors are mixed, with a slight tilt to the downside. Food, Beverage and Tobacco (+0.7%) is outperforming following earnings by Nestle (+2.5%), which announced that it is in advanced negotiations to sell its remaining Froneri stake. At the bottom sits Basic Resources (-2.8%), Autos and Parts (-2.1%) and Utilities (-2.2%). The former continues to have a choppy week, this time catalysed by Rio Tinto (-4.6%) as FY profit failed to grow and a drag on its iron ore unit in China. For the latter, Italian utilities (A2A -3.7%, Enel -4.1%, Italgas -2.1%) have been hit after Italy approved a 2bp hike in its IRAP corporate tax. Renault (-5.9%) has been weighing on the Autos sector after posting a net loss worse than expected.

Top European News

• UK's ONS on ongoing data issues, reported the "Latest steps reaffirm commitment to quality over quantity".

FX

• DXY has waned from overnight highs after advancing yesterday and overnight amid better-than-expected data and as oil prices surged after sources noted the Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise. On the US docket ahead, weekly initial jobless claims (which coincide with the traditional survey window for the BLS' February jobs data) are expected little changed at 225k (prev. 227k), while continuing claims (this week does not coincide with the BLS window) are seen unchanged at 1.87mln. Most recently, a NYT report suggested that the Trump administration indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, in favour of bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico. DXY resides in a current 97.572-97.777 range at the time of writing.
• JPY is narrowly softer but off worst levels, with USD/JPY hovering around its 100 DMA (154.744), with some fleeting strength seen yesterday in wake of the FOMC minutes in which the Fed confirmed it did a USD/JPY rate check on behalf of the US Treasury in January. Analysts at ING highlight that "Something like this is extremely rare in foreign exchange markets and is a sign of a more activist White House when it comes to FX. The move was clearly designed to deliver maximum impact and reflects the shared desire from both Washington and Tokyo that USD/JPY does not sustain a move through 160".
• EUR trims some of yesterday's losses after briefly slipping beneath the 1.1800 level (to a 1.1782 low on Wednesday) as the buck strengthened, and with the single currency not helped by conflicting reports about ECB President Lagarde's future. Recent reports suggested ECB President Lagarde reportedly tells colleagues that she would tell them first if she were to step down, according to sources; colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed. EUR/USD resides towards the top end of a 1.1781-1.1808 range.
• Antipodeans outperform amid recent underperformance and following positive risk appetite in APAC (before waning in European hours), with AUD/USD supported following the mixed jobs data, which showed headline employment change slightly missed expectations, although the unemployment rate printed lower than expected, and the increase in jobs was solely fuelled by full-time work.

Central Banks

• WSJ's Timiraos noted regarding the January Fed meeting minutes that it was interesting there was no date specified for when inflation gets to 2%, and instead minutes states that forecast is "slightly higher, on balance".
• Japan Bank Lobby said markets expect a BoJ hike as soon as March; Lobby Head believes there is a reasonable possibility of a hike as early as March or April.
• ECB President Lagarde reportedly tells colleagues that she would tell them first if she were to step down, according to sources; colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed.
• RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said the easing cycle is likely over and there are risks on either side, adds maintaining accommodative policy for a while aligns with economic conditions.
• SNB has defined a standardised and scalable process for the ELF that will enable participating banks to quickly obtain liquidity support against collateral as necessary.
• Riksbank takes measures to facilitate banks’ liquidity management.

Fixed Income

• USTs are lower by a handful of ticks this morning, and currently trade within a 112-24+ to 112-31 range. Moved lower for much of the morning, before picking up a touch as US/European equity futures dipped lower.
• The bearish bias follows on from; a) the prior day’s stronger-than-expected US data, b) rising energy prices (spurred by geopolitical tensions), c) JGB pressure overnight, following strong Machine Tool Orders and a weak 20yr JGB auction, d) a poor 20yr auction; on the latter point, desks highlight that the 20yr has historically not been the markets favoured outing. On the geopolitical narrative, there have been continued reports that the US is upping its presence in Iran, with a US Senior Official telling Axios that US-Iran talks have been a “nothing burger”, and that is why POTUS is close to deciding on the issue of going to war with Iran. As it stands, US paper appears to be pricing in the inflationary impacts (higher oil prices), but an outright attack could lead to some haven-related demand.
• Bunds are also pressured alongside global peers. Currently holds towards the lower end of a 129.05 to 129.31 range. Newsflow for German paper is lacking today, aside from ECB-related reporting. Source reports suggest that President Lagarde told her colleagues that she would tell them before she leaves; her colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed. De Cos and Knot have been touted as potential replacements once President Lagarde leaves her role, though Rabobank cautions that the process is highly political and difficult to predict, noting markets should largely ignore speculation for now.
• Gilts are trading in-fitting with peers, and trading around the 92.00 mark within a 91.96 to 92.03 range. UK data slate has paused for today, ahead of Retail Sales/PMIs on Friday. This follows on from dovish jobs/wages and mixed inflation metrics earlier this week, which confirmed the disinflation process but Services and Core topped-expectations, leaving the more hawkish MPC members cautious. Markets are currently torn between a cut in March or April; analysts at ING see a cut in March and then another by June.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain elevated amid heightening geopolitical tension between the US and Iran following the Axios report on Wednesday which noted that the US President Trump’s administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise. Tensions continue to persist, with an overnight report from CNN that the US military is ready to strike Iran as early as this weekend and the WSJ reporting that the US has gathered the greatest amount of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. WTI and Brent are trading at the upper end prices of USD 64.84-66.27/bbl and USD 70.18-71.60/bbl, respectively, with Brent touching the USD 71/bbl, which marks the first time since August last year.
• Precious metals are firmer, benefiting from haven demand from the ongoing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, with the yellow metal crossing the USD 5,000/oz mark. The weaker USD ahead of the FOMC minutes also spurred demand for the yellow metal. XAU and XAG are trading at the upper range of USD 4979.14-5040.21/oz and USD 76.355-79.355.
• Copper price action is moving contrary to the trend seen in precious metals. Risk sentiment in the early European session as well as subdued activity from Asia due to the Chinese holiday has seen the red metal trading lower thus far. 3M LME copper trades at the lower price range of USD 12.846-12.937k/t.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said the US could leave the IEA if the group does not change.
• Hungarian PM Orban's Chief of Staff said they would take steps in the scenario that Ukraine continues to halt Druzhba oil shipments.
• US Treasury Department issues general license authorising transactions related to oil and gas sector operations in Venezuela.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.6mln (prev. +13.4mln), Distillate -1.6mln (prev. -2.0mln), Gasoline -0.3mln (prev. +3.3mln), Cushing -2.4mln (prev. +1.4mln).

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is aware that the US and Europe have been talking to Russia and we must be prepared to react to surprises.
• Russia's Kremlin on the Iran situation said they see unprecedented escalation of tensions and on Ukraine talks, said there's nothing to add following comments from the likes of Medinsky yesterday. Reiterates that no date has been set for the next Ukraine talks.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• IAEA Director Grossi said Iran discussed a potential IAEA return to bombed nuclear sites, adds there is no deal unless the IAEA was in a position to verify and there is not much time to reach an Iran nuclear deal, via Bloomberg TV. His role is to get the nations into a position to come to a deal without the need for force. IAEA has proposed a few solutions.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warns of any new US strike on Iran.
• Israeli raid reported on areas of deployment of occupation forces east of Gaza City, according to Al Jazeera.
• Two Israeli defense officials said that significant preparations were underway for possibility of a joint strike with the US against Iran, according to NYT.
• US gathers the greatest amount of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion and President Trump is being briefed on military options for striking Iran, even as aides hold talks with the Iranian regime, according to WSJ.
• Iraqi Foreign Minister said any alternative to US-Iran deal would be disastrous, and they may not be able to export their oil if war breaks out in the region.
• US military is ready to strike Iran as early as this weekend, although President Trump has yet to make the final decision, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by CNN.
• US senior official said US expects Iran to submit a written proposal on resolving standoff in the wake of Tuesday's talks.

Geopolitics: Others 

• US is pushing NATO to cut many foreign activities, including ending a key alliance mission in Iraq, according to four NATO diplomats cited by POLITICO.
• Israeli Defense Forces announced they struck Hezbollah infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US Southern Command Commander Donovan met with Venezuela's interim President Rodriguez and defence officials in Caracas.
• North Korea's Kim Yo Jong said military will take measures to strengthen its vigilance on border with South Korea; she appreciates South Korean Unification Minister's official recognition of South Korea's drone provocation. Border with the enemy should be solid.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Dec Trade Balance, est. -55.5b, prior -56.8b
• 8:30 am: United States Dec P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 7.5, prior 12.6
• 8:30 am: United States Feb 14 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 227k
• 8:30 am: United States Feb 7 Continuing Claims, est. 1860k, prior 1862k
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Gives Opening Remarks at Banking Conferernce
• 9:00 am: United States Fed’s Kashkari in Fireside Chat on Economic Outlook
• 10:00 am: United States Dec Leading Index, est. -0.2%, prior -0.3%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 2%, prior -9.3%
• 10:30 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The disruption narrative has taken a well-earned breather for much of this week, helping to steady nerves. Positive economic data and supportive tech news over the past 24 hours have built on that calm, pushing most major indices to solid gains. The S&P 500 advanced by +0.56%, the NASDAQ by +0.78%, while in Europe the STOXX 600 (+1.19%), FTSE 100 (+1.23%) and CAC (+0.81%) all reached new record highs. Overnight the KOSPI has reopened +2.81% higher after a 3-day break and the Nikkei (+0.78%) and Topix (+1.23%) are also higher. 

Part of the catalyst for the rally were pre-US market reports that Nvidia (+1.63%) had agreed to supply Meta (+0.61%) with large quantities of processors over the coming years. The news boosted both technology and semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +0.96% and the Magnificent 7 rising by +0.77%. That said, the Magnificent 7 continues to underperform on a year to date basis (6.35%). Semiconductor sentiment was further supported by strong quarterly results and guidance from Analog Devices (+2.63%). US equity gains were also pretty broad, with almost two-thirds of the S&P 500 higher on the day, though defensive sectors including consumer staples (-0.53%) and utilities (-1.70%) underperformed.

The equity rally was reinforced by solid US economic data. January industrial production rose +0.7% m/m versus expectations of +0.4%, while factory output increased +0.6% m/m, also beating forecasts. These prints marked the biggest monthly rises in eleven months. Earlier in the morning, core capital goods shipments rose +0.9% in December (+0.3% expected), and with +0.4pp revision for the prior month. US housing starts also reached a five month high in November but that’s clearly a bit backward looking now. Next up on the data front, today’s jobless claims (215k vs. 226k) will be closely watched, given their overlap with the February employment survey period.

Treasury yields moved higher for a second day running in response to the data, with the 2yr yield up +2.7bps to 3.46% and the 10yr up +2.4bps to 4.08%. The grind higher in rates was also supported by hawkish-leaning minutes of the January FOMC meeting. Notably “the vast majority of participants judged that labor market conditions had been showing some signs of stabilization”, even though the meeting had taken place before the improved January jobs report. And “several participants indicated” support for more two-sided language on future rate moves, raising the possibility of rate hikes “if inflation remains at above-target levels”. While that’s still far from an active call to raise rates, it adds to the sense that most of the FOMC are in no rush to deliver further cuts. Overnight, US yields are up a further +1 to 1.5bps across the curve.

Elsewhere, oil rebounded sharply from Tuesday’s decline. The immediate trigger appeared to be an Axios op ed warning that the US and Iran may be moving closer to a major confrontation, though it is difficult to point to any single catalyst. More broadly, investors seem to have concluded that there has been no meaningful political breakthrough following talks earlier this week. Against that backdrop, Brent and WTI both rose by more than +4%, with Brent moving back above $70/bbl. Precious metals also recovered amid renewed geopolitical unease, with gold up +2.04% and silver jumping +5.00%. All three are edging up a little more this morning.

In Europe, front end bond yields edged higher on concerns about rising oil prices, while moves further along the curve were mixed. The 10yr bund yield was +0.1bps, while OATs (-0.6bps) and gilts (-0.2bps) edged lower. And 2yr gilts (-0.4bps) gained despite a slightly firm UK CPI print, which showed January inflation easing to +3.0% y/y from +3.4%, in line with consensus but 0.1pp above the Bank of England’s forecast. Core inflation was slightly stickier than expected at +3.1% y/y (+3.0% expected). While this does mark the lowest headline inflation in 10 months, the data could complicate the BoE’s March decision at the margin, though our UK economist still expects a cut next month given the deteriorating labour market. 

Staying with Europe, the FT reported yesterday that Christine Lagarde is considering stepping down early as ECB President (as we mentioned as the story was breaking this time yesterday), ahead of the scheduled end of her term in October 2027. This potentially links to reports earlier in the week that EU leaders are discussing a package deal to fill upcoming ECB executive board vacancies at once, with Lagarde, Lane and Schnabel all due to leave during the course of 2027. A motivating factor for a possible bundling of appointments is that it would allow current European leaders to make the decision over ECB leadership, insulating it from the influence of a possible far-right French President after the next election in April 2027, especially given the RN’s past rhetoric on redefining the ECB’s mandate. Our European economists do not expect any early change in ECB leadership to significantly change the path of ECB policy going forward, with their baseline view that the ECB will keep rates on hold until mid 2027. 

Other than what we discussed at the top about a rally this morning in Asia, the other story of note has been the Australian job numbers. Total employment increased by 17,800 in January, which was close to the consensus forecasts of around 20,000, but the unemployment rate surprisingly remained stable at 4.1%, a tenth below expectations. 3 and 10yr Aussie yields are +7.8bps and +6bps higher respectively. The ASX is +0.78% higher.

Looking ahead, today brings further US data including the February Philadelphia Fed business outlook, January pending home sales and initial jobless claims. Elsewhere, we’ll see France’s January retail sales, Italy’s December current account balance, Eurozone December construction output and February consumer confidence. Central bank events include the ECB’s economic bulletin and speeches from Fed officials Bostic, Kashkari and Goolsbee. Notable earnings include Walmart, Nestlé and Airbus, while the US will also auction $9bn of 30 year TIPS.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 08:44