Zero Hedge

Prediction Markets Move Into Real Estate With Polymarket–Parcl Deal

Prediction Markets Move Into Real Estate With Polymarket–Parcl Deal

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Parcl and Polymarket have partnered to launch real estate prediction markets that will settle against Parcl’s daily housing price indexes, bringing housing price data into prediction markets for the first time.

Under the partnership announced Monday, Polymarket will list and operate markets tied to movements in housing price indices, while Parcl will supply the index data used to determine market outcomes and settlement values.

Each market will link to a Parcl resolution page showing the final settlement value, historical index data and the methodology used to calculate the index, providing a standardized reference for verifying outcomes once markets close.

The initial rollout will focus on major US housing markets, with contracts structured around whether local home price indexes rise or fall over set periods, as well as threshold-based outcomes tied to published index levels.

The companies said the rollout will occur in phases, beginning with a limited set of high-liquidity US cities and expanding to additional markets and contract types over time.

Parcl, a platform founded during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic when housing markets became volatile, publishes real-time housing price indexes and analytics and operates onchain products tied to residential real estate prices, using Solana for settlement.

Parcl’s native token, PRCL, was up about 120% over the past 24 hours at time of writing, according to CoinGecko data.

Source: CoinGecko

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users trade on real-world events, ranging from sports and politics to forecasts for Bitcoin’s price on a given date.

Prediction markets expand in 2025-2026

After a surge in user activity during the 2024 US presidential election, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket became a mainstream narrative in crypto in 2025.

Polymarket bets. Source: Polymarket

Both platforms secured high-profile partnerships during the year, including Kalshi’s deal with CNBC and Polymarket’s partnerships with DraftKings, the Ultimate Fighting Championship and PrizePicks.

In September, Polymarket was reported to be weighing a US launch while seeking new funding at a valuation of up to $10 billion. The discussions followed a reported $200 million raise in June led by Founders Fund, the investment company co-founded by Peter Thiel.

In November, Kalshi was reported to have raised $1 billion, valuing the company at roughly $11 billion, with Sequoia Capital and CapitalG leading the round. The raise followed a $300 million funding round in October.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 20:05

Trump Flips, Has More Info: Ukraine Didn't Target Putin Residence With Drones

Trump Flips, Has More Info: Ukraine Didn't Target Putin Residence With Drones

President Trump has now made clear that he has reversed his position on the alleged Ukrainian massive drone attack on Russian President Putin's residence last week.

Trump explained to reporters that he's now been given a chance to be presented with more information, based on intelligence briefings and other undisclosed data which has come to light. He says Ukraine was not responsible, after previously seeming to agree with Kremlin allegations, which Trump had earlier called "deeply concerning".

The US President explained American officials had determined that Ukraine did not do it. According to his newest remarks:

Trump said that "something happened nearby" Putin’s residence but that Americans officials didn't find the Russian president’s residence was targeted.

"I don’t believe that strike happened," Trump told reporters as he traveled back to Washington on Sunday after spending two weeks at his home in Florida. "We don’t believe that happened, now that we’ve been able to check."

via Reuters

On December 29 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Ukraine launched multiple drones toward Putin’s official residence in the northwestern Novgorod region, describing that the drone wave was in the dozens, but that Russian air defenses intercepted all them.

The timing was further interesting given that just the day prior Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Florida to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate to take up the issue of the stalled 20-point peace plan.

As for this week, the whole world is talking about Trump's removal of Venezuelan President Maduro by military force, which likely also had elements of a coup from within, based on Venezuelan officials cooperating with the CIA and US military.

This Latin American intervention against a Putin ally is likely to further complicate talks to achieve Ukraine peace. 

The Kremlin has already blasted the blatant 'double standard' - given Washington has spent years berating Moscow for the Ukraine 'special military operation - yet now effortlessly invades a country in its own backyard.

Now, after the US intervention against Venezuela, Putin will see less incentive in making any kind of peace deal which falls anything short of Russia's complete and maximalist demands.

China could also get more aggressive in its anti-Washington rhetoric, as its citizens have been loudly highlighting American hypocrisy on the Taiwan issue.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 19:40

Pictures Of The "Democratic" Socialist Future

Pictures Of The "Democratic" Socialist Future

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

This is Happening, This is Really Happening

On New Year’s Day, Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as mayor of the financial capital of the world, with his hand on a copy of the Koran, and in his inauguration speech, he proclaimed:

“I was elected as a democratic socialist and I will govern as a democratic socialist.”

As a guy who normally tunes out political speeches (to this day, I haven’t a single speech by Trump, Trudeau, let alone Carney or Biden), this one got my attention to the point where I downloaded the transcript and read the entire thing.

It gave me some serious Pol Pot “This is Year Zero” vibes…

“Beginning today, we will govern expansively and audaciously… to those who say the era of Big Government is over, hear me when I say this: no longer will city hall hesitate to use its power to improve New Yorker’s lives.”

Most people don’t know who that was. Except maybe the odd Cambodian.

The banger pull quote was this:

“We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.”

…and the crowds, no doubt cheered.

A few years ago, before the pandemic, I re-released a version of the public domain work: Pictures of The Socialistic Future, from my foreword:

This remarkable little novella posits a fictional socialist sweep into power in Germany towards the end of the 19th century, anticipating the Bolshevik and Marxist revolutions of the subsequent decades. It follows the arc of a family as narrated by its patriarch as he initially enthuses over the socialist ascension to the seat of government.

Quickly, however, he progresses through various stages of disenfranchisement that inevitably ensue: first tempering his expectations, then ratcheting them downward, followed by grappling with cognitive dissonance brought about by the internal contradictions of the new system. When those conflicts are inescapable,  he finally spirals into angst and despair as he comes to fully comprehend the horrors of socialism.

I released that around the same time we did the audiobook version of Dr. Kristian Niemietz’s “Socialism, The Failed Idea That Never Dies“, which has obviously not been read by many New Yorkers.

The historical pattern with all collectivist experiments is: honeymoon, underperformance, disenfranchisement, collapse.

NYC has entered the honeymoon phase, Mandami will be celebrated by Western, liberal intellectuals as a trailblazer and and bulwark against “Trumpism”, he plans to release inmates from jails, freeze rents, launch government run grocery stores and eliminate fares for public transit.

It remains to be seen what kind of radical reforms a mayor can make in one American city – where property rights could (theoretically) still be upheld at higher levels, and where those with much to lose have the ability to flee.

Over the weekend, a useful contrast emerged: Venezuela already ran this experiment. After their honeymoon came repeated hyperinflations, food shortages so extreme people were eating zoo animals, and Chávez’s successor turned the place into a dictatorial narco-state.

The nightmare finally ended when Maduro was removed by the U.S. military in a one-shot operation on January 3rd.

“Collectivism” means: the end of economic reality

In Eugen Richter’s parable – which invariably replays in every collectivist adventure, the first order of business is not “compassion.” It’s confiscation.

Mamdani’s platform specifies a new flat 2% income tax on all New Yorkers earning more than a million annually and boosts the corporate tax rate from 7.5% to 11.5%. My prediction is that after six to twelve months of policy failure, he’ll follow that up with a wealth tax. Bet on it.

Mamdani frames collectivism as “warmth,” but the actual content of his program is an expanding universe of guarantee: universal child care, rent freezes, “fast and free” buses, baby baskets. etc.

As a Canadian who’s lived my whole life under the yoke of “free health care,” I know how it actually collectivism works: anything the government gives everyone “for free” comes at a cost. And when it’s imposed through a state monopoly, that cost tends to exceed the returns, by a wide margin. (Which is why Canadians routinely die on waiting lists, or while sitting in the ER waiting for treatment.)

I’m frequently saying “Incentives are everything“, this is what collectivists don’t get…

The economic reality is that when you turn City Hall (or any government) into the allocation engine for entitlements, you turn erstwhile productive citizens into a doom loop of dependancy. Nobody in a collectivist paradise wants use their excess productive capacity only to have it redistributed to everybody else, so they simply won’t produce at anything above subsistence levels. There’s no point in doing so.

At the municipal level what we can expect then, this:

Rent freezes = housing shortages

Saving for an investment property is one of the more accessible avenues for improving one’s lot in life. When governments freeze rents, it squeezes out the small “mom-and-pop” landlord from being able to hold a cashflowing property, they get squeezed out. Developers won’t build or invest, because there’s no point if they can’t sell any units, and there’s no point investing in new units if you can’t at least break even operating them.

The result: fewer homes get built.

City run grocery stores = food shortages

We don’t need to look at Venezuela to see what happens here, this is already being tried in America and it’s a shit-show: empty shelves, rotting food, it’s almost as if when you try to force goods and services to price below their market clearing rates, the system simply breaks down as producers withhold their remaining labour and capital from a money-losing exercise.

Taxing the “wealthy” = capital flight

We’re already seeing the wealthy pull up stakes and leave – the highest earners did so even before the election, and after Mamdani secured victory, the next level: middle and higher-income earners, headed for the exits (most popular destination: Florida).

There is now an influx among low income earners – (defined as “under $200K annually!) headed to NYC, perhaps lured by the promise of free stuff, streets paved with gold, and a collectivist utopia.

We’ll see how long New York’s honeymoon phase with collectivism lasts.

What we’ll inevitably see play out instead is not theory, it’s been borne out in every collectivist experiment over the 20th and 21st centuries.

Sign up for the Bombthrower mailing list and get a free copy of Pictures of the Socialistic Future. Follow me on X here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 19:15

CDC Narrows Vaccine Recommendations In Response To Trump Order

CDC Narrows Vaccine Recommendations In Response To Trump Order

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health officials announced on Jan. 5 that they’re narrowing the number of vaccines recommended broadly for children in response to a recent order from President Donald Trump.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is moving forward with only broad recommendations for eight vaccines for children, down from 14.

Trump, in December 2025, directed Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and acting CDC Director Jim O’Neill to review vaccine schedules in the United States and peer countries and determine if the U.S. schedule should be updated.

He named three countries, including Denmark, that recommend fewer vaccines and fewer vaccine doses.

“President Trump directed us to examine how other developed nations protect their children and to take action if they are doing better,” Kennedy said in a statement.

“After an exhaustive review of the evidence, we are aligning the U.S. childhood vaccine schedule with international consensus while strengthening transparency and informed consent. This decision protects children, respects families, and rebuilds trust in public health.”

Moving forward, the CDC will stop broadly recommending vaccines against influenza, rotavirus, hepatitis A, and meningococcal disease. The CDC in 2025 already narrowed recommendations for hepatitis B and COVID-19 vaccination based on advice from advisers selected by Kennedy. The agency is maintaining its recommendation that children whose mothers did not receive a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine receive an antibody, or passive immunization, against the virus.

The old schedule can be viewed here, and the new schedule can be viewed here.

The changes were recommended by Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, acting director of the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, who, during a recent presentation, commented favorably on Denmark’s vaccine schedule, and Martin Kulldorff, whom Kennedy appointed a senior adviser in 2025. Hoeg and Kulldorff said in a 34-page assessment that an update was needed because of falling trust in public health, decreases in vaccination rates, and evidence that some recommended vaccines had limited benefits.

A CDC official told reporters on a call on Jan. 5 that the agency consulted with officials in Denmark, Germany, and Japan, as well as vaccine scientists at the CDC and FDA.

Vaccine manufacturers were not consulted, another official said.

The administration says the update does not prevent children from accessing vaccines and that insurers will continue to cover them without cost-sharing under the Affordable Care Act.

The CDC still recommends some of those vaccines for certain populations, such as hepatitis B vaccination for children born to women who test positive for the virus. For others, it is focused on shared clinical decision-making or recommending that people consult doctors and consider factors such as the risk of illness when deciding whether to have their children vaccinated.

The CDC is keeping in place broad recommendations for vaccines against diphtheria; tetanus; acellular pertussis, or whooping cough; haemophilus influenzae type b; pneumococcal disease; polio; measles; mumps; rubella; varicella, also known as chickenpox; and human papillomavirus (HPV).

The new schedule lowers the number of recommended HPV doses from two to one, after some recent research indicated that one dose is as effective.

“Important vaccines ... will be continued to be recommended for our children,” a Department of Health and Human Services official said on the call.

“This change is going to spark major pushback, but that reaction was inevitable,” Dr. Joel Warsh, a pediatrician based in California, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“Reducing universal recommendations doesn’t mean vaccines are being banned or declared unsafe—it means the CDC is finally acknowledging that not every vaccine has the same risk-benefit profile for every child.”

The American Academy of Pediatrics said it opposed the changes.

“At a time when parents, pediatricians, and the public are looking for clear guidance and accurate information, this ill-considered decision will sow further chaos and confusion and erode confidence in immunizations,” Dr. Andrew Racine, president of the group, which partners with vaccine companies, said in a statement.

“This is no way to make our country healthier.”

President Trump took his social media account to explain...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 18:25

Centrus Energy Soars After DOE Awards $2.7 Billion For Uranium Enrichment

Centrus Energy Soars After DOE Awards $2.7 Billion For Uranium Enrichment

The Department of Energy (DOE) has finally awarded the billions of dollars for uranium enrichment announced back in 2024. The contracts span the full range of uranium enrichment from low-enriched uranium (LEU) used by the current global reactor fleet, through high-assay LEU (HALEU) which is planned to be used by multiple advanced reactor designs. Yet while three companies were chosen for huge awards, peaking at almost 900 million each, a few were notably left out.

Centers Energy was awarded $900 million to support the expansion of their currently-operating 900 kg/yr HALEU production capacity and toward the development of next-generation reactor fuel. We covered their recent announcement about finally starting the production of new centrifuge units for LEU production. Centrus now has US government supply on the HALEU side and Korean government support on the LEU side.

Centrus shares rose as much as 9.2% in New York, and closed up almost 25% in the past two days, one of its biggest gains in the past year.

“President Trump is catalyzing a resurgence in the nation’s nuclear energy sector to strengthen American security and prosperity,” said Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. “Today’s awards show that this Administration is committed to restoring a secure domestic nuclear fuel supply chain capable of producing the nuclear fuels needed to power the reactors of today and the advanced reactors of tomorrow.”

General Matter, started by Founders Fund’s Scott Nolan, was awarded $900 million for HALEU capacity development at their future facility in Kentucky. General Matter has been tight-lipped about the enrichment technology they plan to utilize at their new facility, but will submit an application to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the facility planned at Paducah this calendar year.

Orano, a French enrichment company majority owned by the French government, was awarded $900 million for developing and constructing their planned LEU enrichment facility in Tennessee. They have vaguely discussed their intended plant size, but have remarked it will have a capacity in the “millions of SWU”. Separate Work Unit (SWU) is the measurement of uranium enrichment production capacity, with Russian imports currently clocking in at roughly 3-4 million SWU/yr.

Senator Tom Cotton last month argued that companies, such as Orano, which coordinate with China’s nuclear program should be barred from receiving US taxpayer dollars.

Global Laser Enrichment (GLE), a company co-owned by Silex and Cameco, was awarded $28 million to continue the advancement of their novel laser enrichment technology. They currently have an enrichment facility application under review with the NRC for their Kentucky facility, and are currently producing hundreds of kg of LEU at their North Carolina test center.

Notably left out of the list of award recipients was Nano Nuclear’s partner LIS Technologies, a company also developing a novel uranium laser enrichment method. While they have been busy pounding the table for months that their laser technology is the only US-origin technology, so far the US government seems to be uninterested.

Also left off the list is the only enrichment company producing commercial quantities of product in the US, Urenco. Their facility in New Mexico has been operating for years, and recently received permission from the NRC to increase their enrichment levels. Owned by a combination of UK, Dutch, and German government and private entities, the company failed to secure an award for this round.

This is likely only the first of many awards and contracts to come with companies in the domestic nuclear fuel chain, as we discussed at length last week. Many more such announcements are likely over the coming weeks. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 18:00

Trump's Capture Of Maduro Exposed The Reality Of Great Power Geopolitics

Trump's Capture Of Maduro Exposed The Reality Of Great Power Geopolitics

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Trump's successful “special military operation” in Venezuela has prompted a flurry of reactions from governments across the world.

Venezuela’s strategic Russian and Chinese partners predictably condemned the US’ capture of President Nicolas Maduro while the US’ EU junior partner released a statement that lacked any criticism of the US but also didn’t endorse its actions either.

Therein lies the hypocrisy that was just exposed by the US’ “special military operation” in Venezuela since the EU would have certainly condemned Russia’s hypothetical capture of Zelensky in the harshest language possible.

Their implied excuse for these double standards towards the US’ capture of Maduro is that he’s illegitimate, but Russia now deems Zelensky to be illegitimate too, so third parties’ assessments of other leaders’ legitimacy is ultimately subjective and this leads to the reality that was just exposed.

At the end of the day, Great Powers like the US (which is arguably still a superpower even if it was hitherto in decline till Trump’s return to office) always pursue their perceived interests but cloak them in the language of international law or norms, which is more palatable for the global public.

The US previously relied on the “rules-based order” concept to justify its actions abroad, but this was eventually exposed by Russian media as pure hypocrisy, ergo why Trump 2.0 didn’t employ it this time.

Rather, it boldly explained how the US intends to restore its “sphere of influence” over the Americas in accordance with the new National Security Strategy (NSS), thus representing a Hyper-Realist approach in the sense of explicitly embracing the pursuit of power as a goal instead of denying it like before.

As the NSS portrays it, this “sphere of influence” is meant to ensure the US’ national security interests and prosperity, which is similar to what Russia aims to achieve in Ukraine through its own special operation.

Without the power that comes from the US restoring its “sphere of influence” over what it calls its “backyard” or Russia restoring its own over what it calls its “Near Abroad”, they’d remain exposed to a panoply of threats from their rivals, including economic ones that could reduce their people’s prosperity. Correspondingly, Great Powers therefore also try to undermine their rivals in their respective “sphere of influence”, which they perceive as a means towards giving them leverage or at least an edge over them.

This is the reality of Great Power geopolitics, which has up till now been covered up with rhetoric about “democracy”, “international law”, and/or the “rules-based order”, but the US is no longer playing these mind games.

Ideally, it’ll finally behave as a “benign hegemon” that still profits from those within its sphere (but not as excessively as before) and also genuinely provides for their security, since this Putin-pioneered model is the most sustainable way to ensure stability within a Great Power’s region.

The US’ history of “malign hegemony” led to the anti-hegemonic movements that arose in the Americas so repeating the same policy will inevitably lead to the same result and consequently harm the US’ Great Power interests.

It’s premature to predict whether Trump 2.0 will take a page from Putin’s model of “benign hegemony”, but regardless of one’s opinion about Venezuela, it’s still refreshing that the US just exposed the reality of Great Power geopolitics since no one needs to keep up the charade any longer.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 16:20

Trump Again Issues Veiled Regime Change Threat: "Make Iran Great Again"

Trump Again Issues Veiled Regime Change Threat: "Make Iran Great Again"

(Update1618ET): President Trump in a widely circulating photo held up a ballcap which says "Make Iran Great Again" cap in a photo alongside Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Monday, and he also posted this message:

Indeed these are some bizarre times we're living in. Let's hope he doesn't spend too much time with Graham, who is probably lobbying hard for 'muscular action' against Tehran...

And there's this unexpected and rare headline today:

Israeli PM Netanyahu asked President Putin to reassure Iran, "We will not attack them": KANN

The Iranians have every reason not to believe Netanyahu.

* * *

Three Iranian officials have told Reuters that Tehran leadership believes the United States or Israel may take military action against the Islamic Republic soon, coming off the heels of the US intervention to remove Venezuela's Maduro.

There are reports of Iranian 'emergency meetings' of top leadership to examining options for self-defense, and the country overnight engaged in fresh ballistic missile drills to signal its preparedness. 

Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters

The NY Times has separately cited Iranian officials who view the country as being in "survival mode" - amid a week of economic protests driven largely by the impact of US sanctions: currency collapse and soaring prices.

The past two years has seen Hezbollah leadership decimated, Assad removed in Syria, and now Iran-ally Maduro taken out - he's now facing federal charges in a New York court. 

Islamic Republic leadership is fully aware that it remains in a very delicate position:

Ali Gholhaki, a hard-line pundit in Iran, said in a phone interview that the dire state of the economy had played a central role in the downfall of the leaders in both Venezuela and Syria, creating a maelstrom of public discontent and dispirited security forces. “The lesson for Iran is that we must be extremely careful that the same scenario does not happen here,” Mr. Gholhaki said. “When the anti-riot police, security forces and the military are struggling for their livelihood, the defense lines collapse.”

The large-scale internal protests come at the worst possible time, the NY Times continues:

The three officials said that as the protests raged, senior officials in private meetings and conversations had acknowledged that the Islamic Republic had been thrust into survival mode. Officials appear to have few tools at their disposal to deal with either the pressing challenges of a tanking economy fueling unrest or the threat of further conflict with Israel and the United States. President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly said as much publicly in recent weeks, at one point announcing that he had “no ideas” for solving Iran’s many problems.

“Any policy in the society that is unjust is doomed to fail,” Mr. Pezeshkian said in a speech on Thursday, his first public address since the protests began. “Accept that we must listen to the people.”

While at least a dozen people have died amid clashes with police (including at least one security forces member), the ongoing protests still aren't as big as the 2022 wave.

But Iran also has to always be on the lookout for subversion from the outside, as even Israeli media has increasingly acknowledged...

Mossad has long acknowledged that it has many assets inside Iran, and already Israeli officials have expressed that they 'stand with' the Iranian people. Of course, even the protesters themselves are wary of being coopted by outside intelligence. And then there's the professional activists and subversives of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) - which is believed to frequently coordinate action with the Israelis and Americans.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 16:19

US Dept Of War Secures Silver Smelter Deal To Process LatAm Metals

US Dept Of War Secures Silver Smelter Deal To Process LatAm Metals

Authored by GoldFix's Vincent Lanci via ScottsdaleMint.com,

Financed by JPMorgan, Jointly Owned by US DoD

Under the plan, the U.S. Department of Defense will hold a 40% stake in the JPM Financed smelter joint-venture.

GFN – WASHINGTON: Korea Zinc plans a $7.4 billion investment to construct a large-scale non-ferrous metals smelter in Clarksville, Tennessee, a project U.S. officials say will materially expand domestic critical minerals processing capacity and strengthen supply chain security.

Proposed site of the Clarksville, Tennessee smelter

The project, known as the “U.S. Smelter,” is expected to require approximately $6.6 billion in capital expenditures, with total investment reaching $7.4 billion including financing costs. It is being developed in coordination with the U.S. Department of War and the U.S. Department of Commerce, according to project materials and government statements.

Deputy Secretary of War Steve Feinberg said the investment reflects a strategic shift in U.S. industrial and defense priorities.

“President Trump has directed his Administration to prioritize critical minerals as essential to America’s defense and economic security,” Feinberg said.

“The Department of War’s conditional investment of $1.4 billion to build the first U.S.-based zinc smelter and critical minerals processing facility since the 1970s reverses decades of industrial decline. The new smelter in Tennessee creates 750 American jobs and expands access to strategic minerals across aerospace, defense, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.”

Timeline of U.S. metals refining capacity since the 1970s

The Tennessee facility will be the first zinc refinery built in the United States in more than 50 years and will operate as an integrated smelter capable of producing 13 non-ferrous metals. Most of these materials are designated as critical minerals by the U.S. government due to their role in defense production, advanced electronics, and energy systems.

Under the current framework, the Department of War will arrange approximately $2.15 billion in financing alongside private investors. The Department of Commerce will provide $210 million in funding under the CHIPS Act to support domestically sourced equipment, with JPMorgan assisting in structuring the financing.

IEA outlook for global critical minerals demand under STEPS, APS, and NZE scenarios

U.S. officials have described the project as an example of allied cooperation to secure supply chains amid rising competition for strategic resources. Josh Phair, founder and CEO of Scottsdale Mint, said in a recent Yahoo Finance interview, “We’re in a metals war’. and securing supply is crucial now

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said the investment would expand U.S. production of strategically important minerals.

“Korea Zinc’s critical minerals project in Tennessee is a transformational deal for America,” Lutnick said.

“The United States will produce, in volume, 13 critical and strategic minerals vital to aerospace and defense, semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, autos, industrials, and national security.”

Korea Zinc plans to deploy technical personnel and operational expertise from its Onsan Smelter in Ulsan, South Korea, during early project phases. Onsan is the world’s largest single-site non-ferrous smelting complex and is known for processing low-grade and complex materials, including scrap with high impurity content.

North America’s role in global critical minerals mining and refining

Company officials said transferring this integrated zinc-lead-copper processing capability is intended to reduce commissioning risk and position the Clarksville facility among the most advanced smelters globally. Producing within the United States is also expected to reduce exposure to trade restrictions and logistics disruptions while enabling local sourcing of scrap and raw materials.

Despite government backing, the project has prompted shareholder resistance. An alliance led by MBK Partners and Young Poong has opposed the U.S.-backed joint venture, citing concerns over potential share dilution and governance control. The group has indicated it may seek legal action to block new share issuance.

Korea Zinc shares rose more than 26% following the project announcement before declining by over 13% as shareholder opposition became public.

Once fully operational, the U.S. Smelter is expected to process approximately 1.1 million tons of raw materials annually and produce roughly 540,000 tons of finished products.

Smelter output mapped to U.S. critical minerals list

Planned output includes base metals such as zinc, lead, and copper; precious metals including gold and silver; strategic minerals such as antimony, indium, bismuth, tellurium, cadmium, gallium, germanium, and palladium; and chemical products including sulfuric acid and semiconductor-grade sulfuric acid.

According to project disclosures, 11 of the 13 metals qualify as critical minerals under the 2025 U.S. Geological Survey list. Several, including indium and gallium, are fully import-dependent in the United States.

Site preparation is scheduled to begin in 2026, followed by full construction in 2027.

Phased commercial operations are expected to start in 2029, initially focused on zinc, lead, and copper production.

Clarksville was selected due to existing industrial infrastructure, including Nyrstar’s current zinc smelter, the only operating zinc refinery in the United States. Korea Zinc plans to acquire Nyrstar’s U.S. operations, subject to conditions, dismantle the existing facility, and replace it with a larger, modern plant.

Project planners also cited strong transportation links, favorable site conditions, a skilled local workforce with decades of smelting experience, and relatively low electricity costs, a key factor in smelting economics.

Chairman Yun B. Choi said the project aligns with long-term U.S. and South Korean economic security objectives.

“With its project in the United States, Korea Zinc will strengthen its role as a strategic supplier of essential minerals for aerospace and defense,” Choi said.

“This project will serve as a model for U.S.–ROK economic security cooperation at a time of heightened geopolitical risk.”

GoldFix Analysis: Why the Tennessee Smelter Matters

The Korea Zinc investment fits into a broader pattern across commodities, trade policy, and financial market structure. Recent developments point toward a renewed emphasis on supply security and domestic control over critical industrial inputs.

U.S. policy has increasingly focused on securing domestic processing capacity for materials already designated as critical. Mining location remains relevant, but refining and smelting capacity determines throughput control, resilience under stress, and bargaining leverage. The Tennessee project expands that capacity inside the United States for materials that have largely been processed offshore.

Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint has previously linked metals availability to industrial positioning, noting that the rapid build-out of U.S. data centers and infrastructure requires reliable access to physical inputs.

“These data centers that are getting created so fast in the United States, the U.S. has to have it [silver] to protect its position in the world.”

The investment also aligns with policy actions aimed at reducing reliance on China-centered supply chains. Export controls, strategic stockpiling, and industrial subsidies have moved in the same direction. The smelter adds physical infrastructure to that framework, supported by defense and commerce financing and built in cooperation with an allied producer.

The financing structure adds another layer. JPMorgan Chase is involved in arranging financing for the project. Over recent months, JPMorgan has also reduced silver held in COMEX registered inventories and sourced physical metal from Latin America. These actions reflect activity in physical markets where logistics, jurisdiction, and custody increasingly influence procurement decisions.

Why JPMorgan’s 232 Advice Matters

JPMorgan sits at the center of the global silver ecosystem as demonstrated above. Its role as custodian, intermediary, and counterparty across physical markets, derivatives, and sovereign channels places it at the intersection of nearly all meaningful silver flows. Activity associated with JPMorgan therefore carries informational value.

Under Section 232 the United States does not restrict commodities it still needs to accumulate. Tariffs follow supply security, not the other way around.

Once domestic and hemispheric supply chains are deemed sufficient, pricing mechanisms change. Tariffs need not target silver explicitly to reshape its price. Broad commodity measures are enough. But tariffs could come anyway

Because the United States remains the marginal buyer at scale, if it did implement tariffs, its pricing decisions propagate globally. The tariff level becomes the reference price, as sellers rationally seek the highest available bid. JPMorgan is helping the US position itself as self sufficient in metals and at some point, price will rise even further pursuant to rule 232 if it is implemented for Copper (likely) and Silver (perhaps)

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 15:25

US Mainstream Media Had Prior Knowledge Of Trump's Venezuela Assault But Withheld Coverage

US Mainstream Media Had Prior Knowledge Of Trump's Venezuela Assault But Withheld Coverage

Via The Cradle

The two largest US newspapers learned in advance of the secret US raid to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, but chose not to publish what they knew to avoid endangering US troops, Semafor reported on 4 January, citing two people familiar with the matter.

Despite their hostility toward US President Donald Trump regarding domestic issues, the New York Times (NYT) and Washington Post cooperated with his administration ahead of the operation to attack Venezuela.

via The Associated Press

US forces deployed more than 150 aircraft to eliminate air defenses, clearing the way for helicopters to insert troops who then moved on to President Maduro’s location.

After Maduro and his wife were abducted, President Trump and top administration officials praised the operation, citing both the lack of US casualties and the total secrecy surrounding it, including from the media.

"The coordination, the stealth, the precision, the very long arm of American justice - all on display in the middle of the night," Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said.

Trump approved the assault at 10:46 pm Friday. Though aware of the decision, the NYT and Washington Post waited several hours before reporting it because the White House had warned that doing so would expose US troops performing the operation to danger.

However, the decision also showed disregard for the lives of Venezuelans.

US airstrikes accompanying the commando operation killed 40 people, including civilians and military personnel, a senior Venezuelan official told the NYT on Saturday.

One strike targeted a three-story civilian apartment complex in Catia La Mar, a poor coastal area just west of the Caracas airport, killing an 80-year-old woman, Rosa González, and seriously wounding a second person.

Following the airstrikes, US President Donald Trump announced that US forces had "captured" Maduro and his wife, also telling reporters that Maduro had “offered everything” to the US, from Venezuelan oil and natural resources to mediation, according to reporters.

Spokespersons for the White House, the Pentagon, and the Washington Post declined to comment on the conversations between journalists and officials Friday night. A NYT spokesperson did not immediately respond to an inquiry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 14:45

Watch: Dems Screeched For Maduro's Ouster... Until Trump Delivered It

Watch: Dems Screeched For Maduro's Ouster... Until Trump Delivered It

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is rushing to block President Trump’s successful operation to arrest Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, labeling it “lawlessness” and a violation of congressional authority—despite Schumer himself and a string of Democrats and their media mouthpieces previously blasting Trump for failing to end the Maduro regime.

With Maduro now in custody and the U.S. overseeing a transition in Venezuela, Democrats have immediately cried foul, with Schumer appearing on ABC’s “This Week” to decry the move as unauthorized nation-building that will cost American lives and dollars.

Schumer declared, “The American people this morning are scratching their heads in wonderment and in fear of what the president has proposed,” adding, “We have learned through years when America tries to do regime change and nation building in this way, the American people pay the price in both blood and in dollars.”

Schumer further accused the Trump administration of bombing civilian sites and vowed to introduce a War Powers Act resolution, co-sponsored with Tim Kaine and Rand Paul, to halt further actions without congressional approval. “If it’s voted positively in both houses, then the president can’t do another thing in Venezuela without the OK of Congress,” Schumer stated.

Yet, this is the same Schumer who, in 2020, ridiculed Trump’s Venezuela policy for not going far enough. In a Senate floor speech, he declared, “The President brags about his Venezuela policy? Give us a break. He hasn’t brought an end to the Maduro regime.”

The contrast couldn’t be starker: back then, Democrats demanded action against the narco-terrorist indicted on drug trafficking charges; now, they defend the status quo to spite Trump.

Democrats and their media allies are suddenly Maduro apologists, despite the fact that during Trump’s first term and beyond, they relentlessly pushed for the dictator’s removal, tying Maduro’s survival to Trump’s alleged weakness.

Watch: Sen. Chris Murphy just last year urging action against Maduro, only to flip and call Trump’s operation to remove him corrupt and unrelated to U.S. security.

Murphy has been beating this drum since 2019. Now suddenly, he’s against it? Clown.

Watch: Sen. Chris Van Hollen echoed the call in 2024, declaring Maduro “absolutely lost the election, is not legitimate, and has to be removed from power.” His about-face now is laughable.

Watch: Rachel Maddow, in September 2024, lumped Maduro with dictators like Putin and Kim Jong Un, saying, “They want no one anywhere to think it is possible let alone desirable to throw a strong man out.” Now, with Trump succeeding where Biden failed, Maddow’s silence speaks volumes.

Leftists and Dems all over MSNBC and CNN repeatedly claimed Maduro’s hold on power proved Trump was “Putin’s puppet,” ignoring how Biden’s policies later empowered the regime.

Flash back to 2019: Bipartisan applause in Congress when Trump recognized Venezuela’s legitimate leader over Maduro. Democrats cheered then; now they whine.

The hypocrisy peaks in Democrats’ past smears portraying Trump as Maduro’s ideological twin, craving the same authoritarian control.

The talking point was relentlessly hammered: Trump supposedly wants to be like Maduro, depriving people of freedom. They insisted Trump praises leaders like Maduro for their iron-fisted rule. Where are they now?

“Fascism expert” Ruth Ben-Ghiat claimed in 2024 that Trump admires Maduro’s deprivation of freedoms. Her “expertise” crumbles now that Trump freed Venezuelans from that very tyranny.

Even Rep. Jamie Raskin joined in last year, demanding the world oppose Maduro’s “right-wing attack on democratic institutions.”

Predictably, Biden’s weakness invited this mess. In 2023, his admin eased sanctions on Venezuela for Maduro’s empty promise of fair elections—which he promptly stole in 2024, arresting opponents and clinging to power.

Then after it became clear what was happening, the Biden administration moved to pave the way for Maduro to be ousted.

This is all about blind opposition to Trump. Democrats would now rather prop up dictators than admit Trump’s policies are working. With Maduro gone, the U.S. secures its borders, cuts off narco-flows, and weakens globalist foes.

Their blatant hypocrisy exposes the Democrats’ terminal case of Trump Derangement Syndrome: they oppose anything Trump does, even if it aligns with their past demands, simply because it’s him doing it and they have no other direction to steer their sinking rat infested husk.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 14:05

Hegseth Censures Sen. Kelly For Participation In Video Calling On Troops To Defy Orders

Hegseth Censures Sen. Kelly For Participation In Video Calling On Troops To Defy Orders

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Monday that he will issue a letter of censure to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) over the senator’s participation in a video released in November urging U.S. troops to resist “unlawful orders” made by the president. Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Reps. Chris Deluzio, Maggie Goodlander, Chrissy Houlahan, and Jason Crow, all veterans of the military and intelligence community, also participated in the video.

“We want to speak directly to members of the Military and the Intelligence Community,” Sen. Slotkin said in a post accompanying the video. “The American people need you to stand up for our laws and our Constitution. Don’t give up the ship.”

“Our laws are clear, you can refuse illegal orders,” Kelly and others state in the video, without explaining how the Trump administration had violated the Constitution.

“Six weeks ago, Senator Mark Kelly — and five other members of Congress — released a reckless and seditious video that was clearly intended to undermine good order and military discipline,” Hegseth said in a post on X.

“As a retired Navy Captain who is still receiving a military pension, Captain Kelly knows he is still accountable to military justice. And the Department of War — and the American people — expect justice.”

The Department of War has begun retirement grade determination proceedings under 10 U.S.C. § 1370(f), which could result in a reduction of Kelly’s retired rank and corresponding pay. Hegseth also issued a formal Letter of Censure, citing Kelly’s “reckless misconduct” and placing it permanently in his military personnel file.

“Captain Kelly has been provided notice of the basis for this action and has thirty days to submit a response,” Hegseth explained. “The retirement grade determination process directed by Secretary Hegseth will be completed within forty-five days.”

According to Hegseth, it wasn’t just Kelly’s participation in the video that prompted this censure. “These actions are based on Captain Kelly's public statements from June through December 2025 in which he characterized lawful military operations as illegal and counseled members of the Armed Forces to refuse lawful orders,” Hegseth explained. “This conduct was seditious in nature and violated Articles 133 and 134 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, to which Captain Kelly remains subject as a retired officer receiving pay.”

He added that “Captain Kelly’s status as a sitting United States Senator does not exempt him from accountability, and further violations could result in further action.”

Even members of the mainstream media acknowledged that Kelly, Slotkin, and the others had implied that President Trump had already issued illegal orders. However, when pressed on this issue by ABC’s Martha Raddatz, Slotkin not only admitted that Trump had never issued any illegal orders, but that she couldn’t define what “illegal orders” meant. 

 “It was basically a warning to say, like, if you’re asked to do something particularly against American citizens, you have the ability to go to your JAG officer and push back,” Slotkin explained to Raddatz.

But that’s not what the members of Congress said in the video. Raddatz called her out for this.

“Couldn’t you have done a video saying just what you just said?” Raddatz asked. “If you are asked to do something—if you are worried about whether it is legal or not—you can do this. It does imply that the president is having illegal orders, which you have not seen.”

Slotkin also admitted that even though she and the other members of Congress who participated in the video told troops to defy “illegal orders” that she couldn’t define what that meant.

“It is very clear that no one should follow an illegal order, but it’s very murky when you look at what is an illegal order.”

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) responded to the censure by calling Kelly a “hero and a patriot” in a post on X.

“Mark Kelly is a hero and a patriot committed to serving the American people. Pete Hegseth is a lap dog committed to serving one man – Donald Trump,” he claimed. “This is a despicable act of political retribution. I stand with Sen. Kelly, who will always do the right thing no matter the consequences.”

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 13:45

Mamdani's NYC Tenant Czar Called To 'Seize Private Property,' Calls Home Ownership "White Supremacy"

Mamdani's NYC Tenant Czar Called To 'Seize Private Property,' Calls Home Ownership "White Supremacy"

NYC Mayor Zorhan Mamdani's newly appointed tenant advocate called to "seize private property" and called home ownership a "weapon of white supremacy" in several posts on her now-deleted X account.

"Seize private property!" tweeted Cea Weaver on June 13, 2018. 

In another tweet from August 2019, she said "Private property including any kind of ESPECIALLY homeownership is a weapon of white supremacy." 

via archive.is

In December, she pushed to "Elect more communists" while a street in Harlem was being renamed after former communist Rep. Vito Marchantonio of Manhattan. 

In May of 2020 she slammed law enforcement following the death of George Floyd, writing "The Police Are Just People The State Sanctions To Murder W[ith] Immunity." 

Weaver is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, and was formerly a campaign coordinator for Housing Justice For All before serving as an adviser to Mamdani's campaign last year, the NY Post reports.

In 2019 she lobbied the state's Democratic-run legislature to tighten the city's rent stabilization laws, which one major property told the Post was misguided. 

"Without landlords how to do you build and maintain housing? You think the government is going to do it? Look at NYCHA [New York City Housing Authority complexes]," said Humberto Lopes, founder and CEO of the Gotham Housing Alliance.

"You put a system in place to destroy landlords. Why are you shitting on us?"

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 13:05

Social Security Will Be Insolvent In Six Years. What's Congress Going To Do?

Social Security Will Be Insolvent In Six Years. What's Congress Going To Do?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Congress last made major Social Security changes 43 years ago...

The Wall Street Journal reports The Next Class of Senators Won’t Be Able to Dodge the Social Security Crunch

After years of Congress sidestepping and postponing the issue, the lawmakers will have to confront the program’s challenges before their new six-year terms conclude. Recent projections pegged late 2032 as the moment when Social Security’s reserves and incoming tax revenue won’t yield enough money to pay full benefits.

Failure to act would trigger automatic benefit cuts. Acting is no picnic either, because raising revenue or reducing promised payments could be politically painful.

The math is brutal for the program known for many years as the third rail of American politics. Social Security owes lifetime benefits to the huge generation of baby boomers who are already retired or almost there. That commitment locks in costs that are virtually impossible to dislodge and puts younger workers and future retirees on course for tax increases, benefit reductions or both.

Congress last made major Social Security changes 43 years ago in a less partisan Washington, staving off insolvency with just months to spare by adopting tax increases and benefit cuts intended to make the program last 75 years. Since then, Americans have been bracing for more changes, with polls showing many doubt they will get their full checks.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), seeking his fifth term this year, said the 1983 agreement between Republican President Ronald Reagan and Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill is the model. 

“I’m willing to do my part,” Graham said. “You’ve got to look at age adjustments, you know, means-testing benefits. You’ve got to put it all on the table.” Asked about taxes, he repeated: “All on the table.”

President Trump has repeatedly ruled out Social Security benefit cuts, breaking from many Republicans’ openness to the idea. The debate has been mostly dormant for a decade, and the program now requires larger changes to preserve solvency because smaller options that accumulate over time no longer yield enough money.

Huge program runs short

Congress and Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt created Social Security during the Great Depression to prevent poverty among older Americans; it is now the largest federal program. In the latest fiscal year, the U.S. paid $1.6 trillion in Social Security benefits, which is 22% of federal spending and almost double the military budget.

Social Security is funded largely with payroll taxes split between workers and employers. People receive payments after retiring or becoming disabled, getting amounts linked to their earnings history. The program also pays survivor benefits to spouses and children of workers who die. The average monthly retiree payment is about $2,000.

Tax increases and benefit cuts?

Social Security is excluded from the simple-majority budget process Congress used for recent partisan fiscal laws such Trump’s tax cuts, meaning any bill would require 60 votes in the Senate. Any durable bipartisan solution will likely have tax increases and cuts to future payouts.

There is no shortage of ideas. On the tax side, the prime target is the cap on the 12.4% payroll tax. Currently, wages and self-employment income above $184,500 are exempt from the tax, with the figure rising annually with inflation. That tax now covers about 83% of earnings, down from about 90% just after the 1983 changes.

Just eliminating the cap would cut Social Security’s long-run deficits in half. Taxing earnings above $250,000 and tying no new benefits to those earnings would remove about two-thirds of the shortfall, but that approach would change Social Security’s basic architecture that links taxes paid with benefits earned. Both options would sharply raise top marginal tax rates.

Raising the cap and devoting the money to Social Security is probably one of the few palatable ways Congress could get significant revenue from high earners outside the top 1%, said Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the progressive Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

On the benefit side, the system is progressive, replacing a greater share of income for workers with lower lifetime earnings than higher earners. Lawmakers trying to protect people who rely on Social Security as their main income source could alter calculations so higher earners get less money than under current rules. 

“It makes sense to rethink what the benefit formula looks like,” Romig said, especially because higher-income retirees likely have significant savings in 401(k)-style plans.

Lawmakers could also increase the basic retirement age. The 1983 changes pushed that to 67 from 65. Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the libertarian Cato Institute, said she would keep that going up to 70, then link the retirement age to longevity.

Other ideas are out there too. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.) is pitching a $1.5 trillion sovereign-wealth fund. General revenue would pay Social Security benefits for the next 75 years, then the new fund would reimburse those costs. 

“Let’s get it done before it is too late,” said Cassidy, who is running for his third term.

Amid concerns about solvency, some Democrats have proposed minimum benefit increases. Warner said one possibility could be raising benefits for the bottom 20% of workers. That could be a political sweetener for any deal—but it would require more money that needed to simply make the fund solvent.

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D., Ore.), who is running for a fourth term this year, has co-sponsored a bill from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) that would increase minimum benefits and expand the payroll tax to cover high earners and investment income. In his town halls, Merkley said, raising the tax cap is particularly popular.

“We will solve this problem because it has to be solved,” Merkley said. “Even if it is in the ugliest possible fashion at the last second, it will be solved.”

Social Security Fairness Act

Instead of reforming Social Security to make it more solvent, this Congress made Social Security less solvent by extending benefits to the least deserving, that being public unions.

The bill was inappropriately named the Social Security Fairness Act. Cynics may suggest the name was perfect on grounds bills generally do the opposite of their name.

CATO discusses What the Social Security Fairness Act Tells Us About the Likely Future of Social Security Reform

Passing the so-called Social Security Fairness Act sends a clear message about how Washington approaches Social Security reform—and it’s a disturbing one. Congress and President Biden have chosen to ignore all expert advice, cater to organized special interest groups, and burden younger taxpayers with increasingly unaffordable costs.

Instead of sensible policy reforms that better align Social Security benefits with the ability of workers to pay for them, Congress will want to take the path of least resistance. Without significant public pressure to do the right thing, expect a multi-trillion-dollar general revenue transfer (meaning added borrowing) come trust fund depletion, and perhaps superficial fixes like the federal government borrowing money today to ‘invest’ to generate revenue from speculative gains tomorrow.

The Social Security Fairness Act increases the program’s financing gap yet further. Funding this policy with additional payroll taxes would burden 180 million workers with an additional $68 in annual taxes to fund higher benefits for 3 million public sector workers and their spouses by unfairly manipulating the Social Security benefit formula to their advantage. This is a textbook example of Mancur Olson’s theory of collective action, where small, concentrated groups secure disproportionate benefits at the expense of a diffuse majority.

The repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset creates outsized benefits for workers who had significant earnings that were exempt from payroll taxes compared to those who paid Social Security taxes over their entire careers. For example, economist Larry Kotlikoff highlights a schoolteacher whose lifetime benefits will soar by $830,625 (!) under this law, with her annual retirement benefit more than doubling and her widow’s benefit nearly tripling.

Congressional Republicans’ support for this expensive change likely stems from a political calculation. For a long time, backing the bill seemed like a low-cost way to curry favor with police and firefighter unions, key constituents in many members’ voter base without serious worry that the bill would pass. It took 24 years from when a version of the Social Security Fairness Act was first introduced in 2001 (with a congressional hearing held in 2003) to it being signed by President Biden on January 5, 2025. 

The Wall Street Journal suggests the timing—a post-election passage—points to a political payoff for groups like the International Association of Fire Fighters, which lobbied heavily for the measure and declined to endorse Kamala Harris for president (after endorsing Joe Biden in 2020).

If Congress can’t say no to popular and shortsighted benefit increases, how will it tackle the tougher job of making Social Security long-term solvent? The sad truth is that politicians probably won’t even try—at least not until the crisis is too close to ignore.

It’s easy to blame Biden for this but Republicans had to go along or the unfairness act would never would have cleared the Senate.

And as for doing something now, Trump does not want to do anything.

What Will Happen?

A strong possibility is free money. By that I mean no changes other than to guarantee benefits without raising revenue.

Don’t worry. CATO reports the cost would only be $25 trillion over the next 75 years—after taxpayers have repaid the payroll tax surpluses that previous Congress squandered, with interest.

Basically, Congress would simply tell the Treasury to keep selling bonds to finance Social Security benefits, even after the so-called trust fund is depleted.

US Population 2010 vs 2024

US Population in 2010 and 2024. Data from Population Pyramid, chart by Mish.

Lasting Until 2032 is Optimistic

Nobody has factored in recession and the accompanying reduction in FICA tax collection.

Insolvency in 5 years would not at all be surprising.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 12:45

The 2025 Tax Game-Changer: What Retirees Need To Know Now

The 2025 Tax Game-Changer: What Retirees Need To Know Now

Authored by John Rampton via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Usually, tax laws are tweaked as we enter a new year. However, 2025 isn’t just another tax year for retirees; it’s expected to be among the most consequential in recent history.

Inna Kot/Shutterstock

As a result of new legislation, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and continuing changes from the SECURE 2.0 Act (SECURE refers to Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement.), these updates will present both opportunities and challenges. While some retirees will enjoy extra relief, others may need to adjust their financial strategy.

Understanding how these new rules will affect you is essential if you live on a fixed income, manage your retirement savings, or plan your legacy. As such, to achieve a secure and confident retirement, your planning must be informed.

With that said, here are the biggest 2025 tax changes—and what they mean for retirees.

The Big Headline: A New $6,000 ‘Bonus’ Deduction for Seniors

Easily one of the most talked-about changes for 2025 is a new deduction specifically for seniors.

In addition to existing deductions, anyone 65 or older will be able to claim an additional $6,000 deduction in 2025. For married couples at least 65 years of age, that amount can be doubled to $12,000.

So, who qualifies? You can take this “bonus” deduction even if you itemize your deductions or take the standard deduction. It is, however, phased out at higher income levels:

  • Single filers. When modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) reaches $75,000, it gradually phases out until it disappears at $175,000.

  • Married filing jointly. The starting point is $150,000, with a maximum of $250,000.

Since this deduction stacks with the existing senior and standard deductions, retirees can lower their taxable income and possibly eliminate their federal tax liability.

A quick example:

Say you’re over 65 and a single filer. If you qualify, you may be eligible for:

  • Standard deduction: $15,750

  • Age 65+ addition: $1,750 (approx.)

  • New senior “bonus” deduction: $6,000

  • Total: More than $23,500 in deductions.

In a married couple with both spouses over 65, that amount can be $46,000, which moves many retirees into the zero-tax bracket, mainly if they rely primarily on Social Security and modest individual retirement account (IRA) withdrawals.

(Note: This new deduction is temporary and currently set to expire after the 2028 tax year.)

Income Tax Brackets and Rates: Stability at Last

Although deductions are rising, tax rates are also improving. In the new tax system, seven tax brackets will be permanent: 10 percent, 12 percent, 22 percent, 24 percent, 32 percent, 35 percent, and 37 percent.

In other words, retirees will be able to plan long-term with greater security, since there will be no sudden hikes or sunset provisions in 2026.

Bonus tip: With today’s tax rates still relatively low, 2025 may be a good time to consider a Roth conversion. By converting pre-tax traditional IRA or 401(k) funds to Roth accounts, you will pay taxes at today’s rates and then withdraw those funds tax-free in the future. By making this move, you can hedge against future tax increases or the eventual expiration of that senior “bonus” deduction.

Itemized Deductions: A SALT Cap Adjustment

Furthermore, the OBBBA temporarily increases the limit on state and local tax deductions (SALT) from $10,000 to $40,000 through 2029. By itemizing again rather than taking the standard deduction, many retirees can reap significant benefits.

Here’s how it works:

Higher SALT Cap

From 2025 to 2029, you can deduct up to $40,000 in state and local taxes—$20,000 if married and filing separately. And in 2030, the $10,000 limit will return.

Income Phaseout

  • The full $40,000 deduction applies if your MAGI is under $500,000.

  • An annual MAGI of $500,000–$600,000 will be phased out by 30¢ per dollar.

  • The MAGI cap will again be set at $10,000 when the MAGI exceeds $600,000.

  • Through 2029, these thresholds will rise by 1 percent per year.

Whether you itemize or not, retirees aged 65+ can claim an additional $6,000 deduction per person (2025-2028), which is not subject to the SALT cap. It is possible for a couple with both spouses over 65 to claim an extra $12,000 in deductions.

Additionally, this phase-out begins at $75,000 MAGI (single) and $150,000 (joint).

That’s a lot to take in. To help you plan for the year 2025, here are a few tax planning tips:

  • In addition to any senior deductions, compare your total itemized deductions (with the higher SALT limit) against the $31,500 standard deduction for married couples.

  • To maximize your deduction for 2025, consider prepaying your 2026 property taxes before the end of the year.

  • When approaching phaseout levels or planning Roth conversions, be sure to manage your MAGI carefully.

  • Due to AMT rules, SALT deductions are not applicable.

The SECURE 2.0 Act: Big Retirement Account Updates

Several key provisions of the SECURE 2.0 Act take effect in 2025, reshaping how retirees and near-retirees can save, give, and plan for income in later life.

‘Super’ Catch-Up Contributions (Ages 60–63)

There’s a powerful new savings boost coming to people between 60 and 63 in 2025. By introducing “super” catch-up contributions, the limit on annual catch-up contributions is raised to $10,000 or 150 percent of the standard catch-up amount. According to the 2024 limits, that’s $11,250.

By doing so, older workers can maximize savings during their final years of employment before retirement. Starting in 2026, the $10,000 base will be adjusted for inflation.

Expanded Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs)

For those who are 70½ and older, QCDs remain the most tax-efficient way to give. In 2025, you’ll be able to donate up to $108,000 (indexed) directly from your IRA to qualified charities—satisfying your required minimum distribution and avoiding taxes as well.

In addition, higher-income retirees can contribute a one-time $54,000 QCD to a charitable remainder trust or gift annuity, giving them more flexibility to support causes they care about while maintaining their income.

More Flexibility for Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts (QLACs)

QLACs, which provide guaranteed income later in life, now have higher limits and fewer restrictions. In addition to the increase in maximum premiums (indexed), the old rule capping contributions at 25 percent is no longer in effect, allowing retirees to receive a higher level of guaranteed lifetime income.

Other Key 2025 Updates

Here are some other updates to keep on your radar.

Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA)

It’s estimated that in 2025, COLA will be around 2.5 percent, adding modestly to beneficiaries’ incomes.

However, higher benefits may cause an increase in your provisional income, resulting in a higher tax rate—up to 85 percent. As a result, deductions like the new $6,000 senior bonus are more valuable.

Estate Tax Exemption

In 2026, the OBBBA will permanently increase the federal estate tax exclusion to $15 million per individual, from $13.99 million. Combined, this amounts to $30 million in exclusions for married couples.

As a result of this law, the higher exclusion amount established by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will not expire.

Ultimately, retirees with high net worth should consider major gifts or estate transfers now before today’s limits expire.

The Bottom Line: Plan Your 2025 Pivot

It’s a mixed bag for retirees in 2025, with some big breaks and some ticking clocks.

Here are some tips for making the most of these opportunities:

  • Recalculate your deductions. Determine how much income you can shield from taxes by adding up your standard, age-based, and “bonus” deductions.

  • Review Roth conversions. Prevent future increases in tax rates by locking in today’s historically low rates.

  • Max out catch-up contributions. Use the new $11,250 catch-up limit if you’re 60–63 and still working.

  • Use QCDs wisely. By distributing your IRA funds to charities, you can reduce your taxable income and support a cause you believe in.

With these changes in place in 2025, you will be able to benefit from greater flexibility and security in your retirement plan.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 12:05

China-Bound 'Dark' Crude Tankers Make It Out Of Venezuelan Waters

China-Bound 'Dark' Crude Tankers Make It Out Of Venezuelan Waters

There's a continued microscope on Caracas, and world media is also currently heavily focused on New York City where forcibly deposed President Nicolas Maduro is appearing Monday before a federal court.

But amid all the fast-moving developments, about a dozen tankers loaded with Venezuelan crude and fuel have 'snuck out' of Venezuelan waters in recent days, reportedly in dark mode - or with tracking transponders off.

Illustrative file image

Reuters says that all of the vessels are under US sanctions, with the publication pointing out that "The departures could be a relief for Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA, which had accumulated a very large inventory of floating storage amid the U.S. blockade, begun last month, dragging the country's oil exports to a standstill."

The 'rogue' tankers and their being able to evade the US naval blockade were first flagged by maritime monitor TankerTrackers.com:

At least four of the departed tankers left Venezuelan waters through a route north of Margarita Island after briefly stopping near the country's maritime border, TankerTrackers.com said, after identifying the vessels is satellite images.

A source with knowledge of the departures' paperwork told Reuters that at least four supertankers had been cleared by Venezuelan authorities in recent days to leave Venezuelan waters in dark mode.

There's been some degree of confusion related to the possibility that with Maduro now having been removed from power and in US custody, Washington might have altered or revised its full force "oil embargo" on Venezuela. 

But this means that these some dozen tankers will be offloaded to the Latin American country's largest customers, foremost among them China.

With Maduro out, has there indeed been a quick shift in US posture?

For now, China's impacted Venezuelan imports will be cushioned by the significant amount of tankers still at sea, per fresh reporting from Bloomberg:

"The loss of Venezuelan barrels hurts teapots the most," said Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. They account for roughly half of China’s imports from the South American nation, with state-owned firms taking about a third, and bigger independent refineries buying only limited volumes, she said. 

While the future of Venezuela and its oil sector is still very murky, a hoard of sanctioned crude in floating storage will cushion Chinese buyers in the coming months. Almost 82 million barrels is currently on tankers in waters off China and Malaysia, according to data intelligence firm Kpler. More than a quarter is Venezuelan and the rest is Iranian, it said. 

Also, on Monday there are reports of US-bound oil as well, with a Chevron-chartered vessel carrying Venezuela crude currently en route to the US Gulf coast, shipping data shows.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 11:25

$8,500 Gold And Other 2026 Sound Money Predictions

$8,500 Gold And Other 2026 Sound Money Predictions

 Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

My buddy Larry Lepard (whose gold fund was up over 150% last year) joined me today to unpack the current macro environment — from Bitcoin’s volatility and gold’s historic breakout to what may be the most important question of the decade: is the global monetary system on the brink of a reset?

Bitcoin vs. Gold: Sound Money in Two Different Gears

The discussion opened settling an argument Larry and I were having on X the other day, when he took exception with me comparing Peter Schiff’s EPGIX to Saylor’s MSTR on a year-to-date basis at EOY 2025.

That went into an exchange over Bitcoin’s recent underperformance versus gold. While acknowledging Bitcoin’s painful drawdowns, Lepard stressed that the asset’s long-term thesis remains intact:

“Bitcoin has good years, exceptionally good years, and really awful years… that’s exactly what you expect from a new network that’s still being adopted.”

He framed Bitcoin and gold as complementary forms of sound money — gold thriving in crisis and uncertainty, while Bitcoin responds more to liquidity and risk-on conditions. Importantly, he warned new investors about Bitcoin’s extreme volatility and the necessity of proper position sizing:

“Buy an amount where if it went down, your first instinct would be to say ‘it’s cheap, I should buy more,’ not ‘I made a mistake.’”

Gold and Silver: A Structural Shift Underway

Lepard believes the surge in precious metals is not merely speculative but reflects deep structural changes in global finance. Tight physical supply, de-dollarization, and rising distrust in government finances are converging:

“We are in the first or second inning of a nine-inning game… this is a secular trend.”

With silver breaking multi-decade resistance and physical premiums emerging across global markets, Lepard argued these moves signal a fundamental repricing of monetary assets rather than a temporary blow-off.

The Bond Market: The Real Fault Line

One of the most sobering segments of the discussion centered on the bond market. Lepard outlined a scenario where persistently negative real yields eventually force the Federal Reserve into full-scale yield-curve control — triggering an inflationary shock far larger than anything seen during COVID:

“If the bond market revolts and the Fed caps yields… the inflation that comes out of that will blow your socks off.”

In his view, the long end of the bond market is structurally broken, and the consequences for currencies and asset pricing are enormous.

Are We Heading for a Monetary Reset?

Perhaps the most important question of the interview: is the U.S. already preparing for a reset of the global monetary system?

Lepard pointed to mounting evidence — including growing official interest in gold-linked instruments, shifting geopolitical alignments, and rising distrust in fiat currencies — suggesting that such a reset is at least being discussed at the highest levels of government.

“They know the system is broken… and if inflation continues, the political cover for a reset may finally exist.”

What This Means for Investors

The core takeaway from the conversation was clear: we are entering a period of profound financial transition. Inflation, debt, and monetary mismanagement are colliding, and traditional portfolios are not positioned for what’s coming.

Lepard’s conclusion was simple and direct:

“Protect yourself in things they can’t print — gold, silver, Bitcoin, and real assets.”

As always, the full interview offers far more depth and nuance, but one thing is certain: the world is changing, and the era of sound money is no longer theoretical — it’s unfolding in real time.

WATCH THE FULL ONE HOUR INTERVIEW HERE

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 11:05

Key Events This Week: JOLTS And Jobs

Key Events This Week: JOLTS And Jobs

While all eyes will be on geopolitical developments, whether in Venezuela or Iran, as speculation erupts that a Trump "intervention" here is next, or even Taiwan, there also are quite a few macro events this week, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for December on Friday. That’s an important one because there’s been more weakness in the labor market over recent months, with the unemployment rate rising to a 4-year high of 4.6% in November. As DB's Jim Reid writes this morning, the deterioration in the labor market is why the Fed has delivered 3 consecutive rate cuts since their September meeting, and futures are still pricing in a 53% chance of another cut by the March meeting. So investors still think a Q1 rate cut is in the balance, and Friday’s report will go some way to determining if that happens. In terms of what to expect, DB economists think that nonfarm payrolls will rise by +50k in December, with the unemployment rate declining a tenth to 4.5%.

Over in Europe, the main highlight will be the flash CPI prints for December, with Germany and France reporting on Tuesday, ahead of the Euro Area-wide print on Wednesday. This isn’t a print expected to have too many implications for near-term ECB policy, with markets expecting them to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year. However, headline inflation is expected to fall below the 2% target early this year, largely driven by energy base effects.

DB economists think that if the decline for headline inflation is large enough, that could spill over to weaken core and inflation expectations too, which would lower the bar for further policy easing.  So that’ll be a key theme for H1. In terms of this print for December though, our economists expect Euro Area headline inflation to fall back to +2.0% thanks to those falling energy prices, down from +2.1% in November. And for core CPI, they expect that to remain at +2.4%.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday January 5

  • Data: US December ISM index, total vehicle sales, China December services PMI, UK November net consumer credit, M4, Japan December monetary base

Tuesday January 6

  • Data: UK December official reserves changes, new car registrations, Germany December CPI, France December CPI, Italy December services PMI
  • Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, ECB’s Villeroy and Cipollone speak

Wednesday January 7

  • Data: US December ADP report, ISM services, November JOLTS report, October factory orders, China December foreign reserves, UK December construction PMI, Japan November labor cash earnings, Germany November retail sales, December construction PMI, unemployment claims rate, France December consumer confidence, Italy December CPI, Eurozone December CPI, Australia November CPI

Thursday January 8

  • Data: US Q3 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, December NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, November consumer credit, October trade balance, wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, Japan December consumer confidence index, November household spending, Germany November factory orders, France November trade balance, current account balance, Italy November unemployment rate, Eurozone December economic confidence, November PPI, unemployment rate, Canada October international merchandise trade, Switzerland December CPI, Sweden December CPI
  • Central banks: ECB November consumer expectations survey

Friday January 9

  • Data: US December jobs report, January University of Michigan survey, October building permits, housing starts, China December CPI, PPI, Japan November leading index, November coincident index, Germany November industrial production, trade balance, France November consumer spending, industrial production, Italy November retail sales, Eurozone November retail sales, Canada December labour force survey, Norway December CPI
  • Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, ECB’s Lane speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the November JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday and the December employment report on Friday. There are two speaking engagements by Richmond Fed President Barkin this week. 

Monday, January 5 

  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, December (GS 48.0, consensus 48.4, last 48.2): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index edged down by 0.2pt to 48.0 in December, reflecting the decline in our manufacturing survey tracker (-1.6pt to 49.9).
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, December (GS 15.8mn, consensus 15.6mn, last 15.6mn)

Tuesday, January 6 

  • 08:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Economic Forecast 2026 conference held by the Raleigh Chamber of Commerce in Raleigh, North Carolina. Speech text is expected.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global Services PMI, December final (consensus 52.9, last 52.9)

Wednesday, January 7 

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, December (GS +55k, consensus +48k, last -32k)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, December (GS 52.0, consensus 52.3, last 52.6): We estimate that the ISM services index declined 0.6pt to 52.0 in December, reflecting sequential softening in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-0.7pt to 52.2).
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, November (GS 7,600k, consensus 7,715k, last 7,670k)
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, October (GS -1.4%, consensus -1.0%, last +0.2%); Durable goods orders, October final (GS -2.2%, consensus -2.2%, last -2.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October final (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, October final (consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods shipments, October final (last +0.7%)

Thursday, January 8 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 preliminary (GS +4.3%, consensus +3.8%, last +3.3%); Unit labor costs, Q3 preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 3 (GS 220k, consensus 220k, last 199k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 27 (last 1,866k)
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, October (GS -$52.0bn, consensus -$58.4bn, last -$52.8bn)  

Friday, January 9 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, December (GS +70k, consensus +55k, last +64k); Private payroll employment, December (GS +75k, consensus +50k, last +69k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), December (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Unemployment rate, December (GS 4.5%, consensus 4.5%, last 4.6%)
  • We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 70k in December. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a moderate pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 5k decline in federal government payrolls and unchanged state and local government payrolls—and sequentially slower construction employment growth after an outsized increase the prior month and unusually poor weather early in the survey period. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged down to 4.5% in December from 4.6% in November: the bar for rounding down to 4.5% is not high from an unrounded 4.56% in November, continuing claims have declined slightly, and the furloughed federal workers that likely contributed to the spike in workers on temporary layoff (+171k in November vs. September) and unemployed government workers (+193k, SA by GS) that explained most of the increase in overall unemployment in November would have returned to work. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.25% month-over-month in December, reflecting negative calendar effects.
  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, October (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.4%, last -8.5% [August]); Housing starts, September (GS +0.3%) 
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, January preliminary (GS 54.1, consensus 53.4, last 52.9): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, January preliminary (GS 3.3%, last 3.2%)
  • 01:35 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore, Maryland. Speech text is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 10:55

US Manufacturing Sector Ends 2026 At Weakest In Over A Year

US Manufacturing Sector Ends 2026 At Weakest In Over A Year

The US Manufacturing sector ended 2026 on a down-note as yet another 'soft' survey data disappointed with ISM reporting at 47.9 (below the 48.4 expected) - the 10th consecutive month below 50 (contraction)...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite strong 'hard' data, that is the weakest print for ISM Manufacturing since Oct 2024.

The decline in the measure reflected producers drawing down their raw materials inventories at the fastest rate since October 2024. That indicates many firms are relying on existing stockpiles to satisfy tepid demand.

Plus, materials costs remain elevated.

The ISM prices-paid index, which held at 58.5 last month, is 6 points higher than it was at the end of 2024.

New orders contracted for a fourth month and export bookings remained weak, based on the ISM data. Headcount shrank for an eleventh straight month, albeit at a slower pace, amid modest production growth.

The ISM's gauge of imports shrank to a seven-month low, while supplier delivery times slowed and order backlogs continued to shrink.

Respondents remain focused on the 't' word...

“Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases. It’s cold in our area of the country, absenteeism is worse around the holidays, and sales were lower than we expected for November. So, things look a bit bleak overall.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“2025 revenue was down 17 percent due to tariffs. The lost revenue has inhibited our ability to offer bonuses to employees or create and hire for new positions.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Things are quieter regarding tariffs, but prices for all products remain higher. Our costs have increased, so we have increased prices for our customers to compensate. Margins have deteriorated, as full pass through (of cost increases) is not possible.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

"Winding up the year with mixed results. It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have ‘voted for’ with their spending." [Chemical Products]

"Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs, low oil commodity pricing and limited housing starts." [Machinery]

But looking ahead, abating tariff uncertainty and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are anticipated to offer a tailwind to capital expenditures this year.

Will the soft data catch up to the hard data? Or vice versa?

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 10:06

Iran Protest Deaths Rise As Trump Warns Tehran It Could "Get Hit Very Hard" By US

Iran Protest Deaths Rise As Trump Warns Tehran It Could "Get Hit Very Hard" By US

Over the weekend as the world watched Trump's Venezuela intervention unfold, the Iran protests reached a full week. While AFP and others have reported in some locales clashes between demonstrators and police, which have after entering day nine have left 12 people dead, including members of security forces, it is clear that this wave of largely economic-driven protests have yet to reach the size of the 2022 'anti-hijab' protests.

Protests have hit 26 of Iran's 31 provinces, leading to around 1,000 arrests - and there have been some signs of the usual mayhem: in some instances cars or buildings burned, governors' offices broken into, and sporadic reports of live fire. Still mainstream Western press has admitted the following in reference to the prior 2022 'anti-hijab' protests: "While smaller in scale, the latest protests pose a fresh challenge to the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following a brief war with Israel in June that damaged nuclear facilities."

Deutsche Welle cites Norway-based rights groups Hengaw and Iran Human Rights who newly report that four Kurdish protesters were killed on Saturday in Malekshahi county (in Ilam province), with dozens more injured.

Screengrab: AFP

Iranian media has been focused on the killing of at least one member of the security forces by "rioters" - and details surrounding the deaths and injuries of other protesters remain murky. While there have clearly been some isolated instances of violence, it must be remembered that the Islamic Republic is geographically large for the region and has 90+ million people.

The lingering big question of whether the protests will be sustained or spread, amid a collapsing currency and soaring prices, has not stopped President Trump from reiterating tough threats directed at Tehran leaders. He told reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran will get "hit very hard" by the United States if further protesters were killed.

"We’re watching it very closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they're going to get hit very hard by the United States," he said without providing further details.

This time, the warning hinted more strongly in the direction of a military response, after last week he said something similar but somewhat vague - that he would come to the protesters "rescue" if they start being killed. Big on everyone's mind following Venezuelan President Maduro's capture is: will Iran be next?

There's little question that Israel's Netanyahu hopes so, after reports that in last month's Mar-a-Lago meeting, the Israeli prime minister lobbied Trump to go after Iran's ballistic missile program. For this reason and others, Tehran authorities continue to allege a foreign hidden hand which seeks to exploit the current crisis.

Iran's head of the judiciary has released a fresh statement warning of no leniency to "rioters" while saying that peaceful individuals have a right to air their grievances in public.

"I instruct the attorney general and prosecutors across the country to act in accordance with the law and with resolve against the rioters and those who support them… and to show no leniency or indulgence," Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei was cited in the judiciary's Mizan news agency as saying.

At the same time authorities have cast a cloud of suspicion over the protests, linking them to the US and Israel:

Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said statements by some American and Israeli officials amounted to interference in Iran’s internal affairs and incitement to violence under international norms and rejected what he described as foreign efforts to present themselves as supportive of the Iranian public.

"Actions or statements by figures such as the Israeli prime minister or certain radical and hardline US officials regarding Iran’s internal affairs amount, under international norms, to nothing more than incitement to violence, terrorism, and killing."

But interestingly this type of 'foreign influence' accusation has been somewhat softened (compared to in prior waves of protests that rocked Iran) - perhaps given Iranian leaders' fearing more backlash from Trump. 

After all, they have have watched Maduro get taken out of power (and whisked out of the country) by the US in rapid fashion, and have to be careful not to provoke Washington.

* * *

Hawks now salivating over regime change options in Iran?...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 09:45

The "Don-Roe Doctrine" Has Already Set The Tone For 2026

The "Don-Roe Doctrine" Has Already Set The Tone For 2026

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Happy New Year! Brace yourselves, we’re in for a rough ride.

In our last Monthly Outlook for 2025, we looked ahead to this year. We warned that it would be foolish to assume that this year would be any calmer. President Trump wasted no time to make that prediction accurate.

You will undoubtedly have seen the headlines. This weekend, President Trump launched a military operation in Venezuela and in a matter of hours, Venezuelan President Maduro was in US custody. He faces charges for “pushing drugs into the United States.”

It is the first time the US moves to oust a Latin American leader since Bush moved against Noriega in 1989. Coincidentally, the Panamanian leader was also wanted for drug trafficking, but the US had other geopolitical reasons to dethrone him. Drug trafficking charges may be Trump’s official reason for this weekend’s operation in Venezuela, as his voter base did not elect him on a platform of active foreign policy. Still, the move fits with a modern-day Monroe Doctrine.

Throughout 2025, Trump had already taken an interest in politics in other Latin American countries. He has been a supporter of Argentina’s Milei, who largely shares Trump’s ideas. And Trump has not shied away from punitive tariffs on Brazil, as retribution for a criminal investigation against former president and Trump-ally Bolsonaro and arguably Brazil’s deepening ties with Russia and China.

Is this a warning of more to come? Recall that last year, Trump threatened to take control of the Panama Canal and he said “something could happen with Greenland.” This weekend, the US president repeated that the country “needs Greenland from the standpoint of national security.” And, Trump warned that Colombia could be next after Venezuela. He accused the Colombian president of making and selling drugs to the United States, adding that “he’s not going to be doing it very long, let me tell you.”

Unsurprisingly, several Latin American leaders condemned the move. Brazil’s Lula said that an unacceptable line had been crossed, just as relations between the two presidents had started to defrost. Mexico strongly rejected the attack, and Chile and Colombia expressed their concerns.

The capture of Maduro also puts another strain on US relations with Russia and China, who both supported Venezuela. In fact, Maduro had met with Chinese envoys just hours before his capture.

Meanwhile, the response of US allies was divided as leaders weigh politics and international law. French President Macron chose the political route of commending Trump’s achievement: “Venezuelan people are rid of Maduro’s dictatorship and can only rejoice.” His German counterpart noted that the legal assessment is “complex.” But, above all, Merz called for a transition to a government that is legitimised by elections, warning against political instability.

Opinions vary how Venezuela may get there. Macron suggested that Maduro’s main political opponent –and presumed winner of the previous elections– could lead this transition: “President Edmundo González Urrutia, elected in 2024, can swiftly ensure this transition.” Venezuelan opposition leaders have called for the same.

But President Trump has other plans. According to the US president, the opposition leaders lack the “respect” of the country to govern effectively. Instead, Trump suggested that Maduro’s vice president would be the best candidate for the job: “She is essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.” Trump added that the US would “run” Venezuela until a “safe, proper and judicious” transition of power can be done.

Rodríguez initially showed defiance of US intervention, arguing that “the US attack only had one objective: regime change and the capture of Venezuelan natural resources”. Yet that could be a façade as she juggles US demands with those of Maduro’s supporters. Indeed, on Sunday, she extended an invitation to “work together on a cooperation agenda,” as Trump threatened her with a fate worse than Maduro’s “if she doesn’t do what’s right.” For now, everything remains in flux.

It is equally unclear how Trump will ensure a smooth transition of power, or how he exactly plans to lead Venezuela in the interim. The US does not have a military presence or even an embassy, but it has blockaded the country for about a month now. So, Trump may have some economic pressure over any new leader. And he has warned that follow up strikes could still happen, if necessary.

If the US administration manages to impose its power over Venezuela, that could reshape the world. The country’s oil reserves could ensure low energy prices for US consumers and secure fuel for US shipping and military, whilst undercutting geopolitical rivals’ abilities to fund themselves with energy sales and/or disrupting flows to China. However, Venezuelan oil production is a fraction of what it was, and our energy strategists estimate that it would take at least five to ten years before capacity can be restored to what it once was.

Geopolitically, it shows that Trump means what his administration wrote in its National Security Strategy: a greater focus on the Western Hemisphere; a “Donroe Doctrine.” Control over Venezuela reinforces that message, and would make it easier for the US to then lean on resource-rich countries in the region.

But none of this is without risks. Imposing a stable, pro-US regime is much more difficult than toppling the former. And how will China and other geopolitical rivals respond? Has Trump set a precedent with his claim that the attack was legitimate because Maduro had been indicted in the US?

We’re just a couple of days into 2026 and the tone has been set. Buckle up!

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 - 09:25

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