Zero Hedge

US Existing Home Sales Bounced In February As Mortgage Rates Tumbled

US Existing Home Sales Bounced In February As Mortgage Rates Tumbled

Despite tumbling mortgage rates, existing home sales plunged (the most since COVID) in January, with some blaming 'below-normal temperatures' despite The West suffering the biggest declines (and unaffected by the winter storms).

Consensus was for a modest 0.8% MoM decline in February (again despite an ongoing drop in mortgage rates) but sales actually surprised to the upside, rising 1.7% MoM. Perhaps even more notably, January's 8.4% MoM plunge was revised up to a slightly less crazy 5.9% MoM drop...

Source: Bloomberg

With the beat and upward revision, existing home sales were down just 1.45% YoY but SAAR topped 4mm (4.09mm) once again...

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, with mortgage rates at their lowest since 2022, existing home sales look set to continue to improve (unless Trump's war triggers more panic in rates)...

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage rates fell at the end of last month to 6.09% after President Trump asked Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to help lower home-financing costs.

The NAR’s monthly housing affordability gauge, which reflects changes in home prices, median income and borrowing costs, stands at the most-favorable reading since 2022.

“Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“Still, there is a long way to go to return to pre-pandemic levels of transaction activity.”

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.3% from a year earlier — one of the smallest advances since the pandemic housing frenzy — to $398,000 last month.

The inventory of previously owned homes increased 4.9% from a year ago to 1.29 million — the most for any February since 2020.

Market analysts see home sales climbing this year, with estimates ranging from 1.7% to 14%, according to a survey by Bloomberg late last year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 10:09

89 Arrested In Florida Human Trafficking Operation, Sheriff's Office Says

89 Arrested In Florida Human Trafficking Operation, Sheriff's Office Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A sheriff’s office in Florida announced this week that an undercover operation led to 89 human and sex trafficking-related arrests, resulting in more than 1,200 separate felony charges.

A Hillsborough County Sheriff vehicle as seen in a file photo. Google Maps via The Epoch Times

The Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office, which includes the Tampa metropolitan area, said that the operation was carried out over several weeks and targeted individuals “seeking to sexually exploit children and purchase sex.”

The suspects arrested allegedly believed they were communicating with underage victims and showed up at agreed upon locations but were instead met by undercover sheriff’s detectives, according to a news release issued by the department.

They also located a missing 17-year-old girl who was being exploited, the news release said, adding that she was rescued, and her trafficker, identified by officials as 23-year-old Armani Hopkins, was arrested and charged in connection with the incident. It’s not clear if Hopkins has legal representation.

Authorities gave more details about other suspects who were arrested by sheriff’s officials.

Stephen Fabic, 41, a math teacher at Hillsborough High School, was arrested after he allegedly “offered to pick up a teenager and bring them to his home to engage in sexual activity during conversations with someone he believed to be a minor,” the office stated.

Fabic was arrested and made a court appearance last month. An attorney speaking on his behalf, Daniel Fischetti, was quoted by local media outlet Fox 13 as saying that “it’s unknown what exactly happened the day of, or what the meeting was going to be, so I ask the court to take that into consideration when setting bond.”

The Epoch Times has contacted his attorney for comment.

John Altieri, 69, was also arrested in the operation after he allegedly “arranged for a ride share to pick up a juvenile from their home and bring them to his residence to perform sexual acts,” the office’s news release stated.

“At the time, Altieri was serving home confinement while on probation in Hernando County for two counts of Possession of a Controlled Substance,” it said, in part. It’s not clear if he has an attorney.

The office said that it safely recovered a 2-year-old child after it received a tip that the child was being exploited. A suspect, 42-year-old Peter Torres, was later arrested and the child was recovered in a safe manner, it said. It’s not clear if Torres has a lawyer.

Hillsborough Sheriff Chad Chronister, a Republican who was tapped by the second Trump administration to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration before he withdrew himself in late 2024, vowed to pursue human traffickers or individuals who seek to sexually exploit minors.

If you are using a hotel room, a chat app, or a fake profile to pursue a child, we are there,” Chronister said in a statement. “Our detectives will follow the digital trail all the way to your door.”

The arrests took place several months after the FBI, the U.S. Marshals Service, and local law enforcement officials said 122 missing children were found in Florida as part of an operation. The operation, the results of which were announced in November, encompassed much of Central Florida, including the Tampa area.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 09:20

After 144 Years In New Jersey, Exxon Asks Shareholders To Back Texas Move To Cut Litigation Risks

After 144 Years In New Jersey, Exxon Asks Shareholders To Back Texas Move To Cut Litigation Risks

Whether it is Chevron, Tesla, Oracle, Caterpillar, CBRE, Fisher Investments, and/or an expanding roster of other major companies, corporate America has spent the better part of the post-Covid era shifting headquarters to Texas for one simple reason: the state offers a much more business-friendly environment than left-leaning blue states.

In a proxy filing on Tuesday, Exxon Mobil asked shareholders to approve moving its legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas after more than a century in New Jersey.

The main reason executives want to move to the red state is its friendlier business climate, which offers more predictable decision-making and could also reduce exposure to frivolous lawsuits.

"The Texas Redomiciliation may reduce the risk of future frivolous litigation against the Texas Corporation and its directors and officers," Exxon wrote in the filing.

If approved at Exxon's May 27 shareholder meeting, the company would be governed by Texas law on issues such as bylaws, director duties, and shareholder rights. Exxon noted that most of its senior leadership and about a third of its global workforce are already based in Texas.

Exxon's evolution from its Standard Oil days has left it incorporated in New Jersey since the 1880s, and its attempt to move is yet another example of corporate America abandoning states run by left-wing politicians pushing a failed green agenda and other destructive progressive policies in favor of red states governed by common sense.

Here's a partial list of physical headquarters moved to Texas:

  • Chevron — from San Ramon, California, to Houston, announced in August 2024.

  • Tesla — from Palo Alto, California, to Austin, announced in 2021.

  • Oracle — from Redwood City, California, to Austin, announced in 2020.

  • Caterpillar — from Illinois to Irving, Texas, announced in 2022.

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise — from San Jose, California, to Spring, Texas, announced in 2020.

  • CBRE — from Los Angeles to Dallas in 2020.

  • Frontier Communications — from Connecticut to Dallas in 2023.

  • Fisher Investments — from Washington to Plano in 2023.

  • Professional Bull Riders (PBR) — from Colorado to Fort Worth in 2024.

  • Verily Life Sciences — from California to Dallas in 2024.

The Texas governor's office reports that Texas logged 314 headquarters relocations from 2015 to 2024, including 24 in 2024 alone.

Now, Texas is taking on Wall Street with its own exchange, the Texas Stock Exchange.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 08:45

ADP Signals Best Job Gains In Almost 4 Months, As BLS Payrolls Plunged

ADP Signals Best Job Gains In Almost 4 Months, As BLS Payrolls Plunged

For the four weeks ending February 21, 2026, ADP reports that private employers added an average of 15,500 jobs a week. 

Employment gains reached their highest since Thanksgiving week last year, holding steady in February after five straight weeks of strengthening. 

This positive labor market signal stands in the face of last week's surprised plunge in non-farm payrolls - driven by a strike-triggered drop in Healthcare jobs and a huge revisions in the labor force as native workers suddenly disappeared.

Combined with the ongoing strength of the jobless claims data, once could argue that the 'no hire, no fire' economy is edging back towards jobs growth.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 08:39

Futures Slide, Reversing Overnight Gains As "Off-Ramp Optimism" Fades

Futures Slide, Reversing Overnight Gains As "Off-Ramp Optimism" Fades

S&P futures are unchanged this morning, but approaching session low, following Trump comments that appeared to be the first signs of an off-ramp which however were followed by renewed fighting in the Middle East. While the risk is of re-escalation, JPMorgan writes that we are "seeing a global unwind of war-related trades as the market awaits additional news from US, Israel, Iran" but with headlines like this it will hardly last *IRAN BEGINS NEW WAVE OF MISSILE STRIKES ON NORTHERN ISRAEL: TV.  As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.2%, and Nasdaq futs turn red even as Mag7 and Semis help Tech outperform with AI themes working across regions. TSMC sales worth noting up 30% in the first two months of the year. ORCL post close in focus on the tech/AI front. Global markets snapped higher with the batshit insane KOSPI leading up 535bps one day after being halted limit down (again), Europe rises ~200bps, depending on the market, having yesterday unwound all YTD gains. UK consumer sentiment dropped to a four-month low in March, reversing gains made at the start of the year. WTI is still down -7% but reversing rapidly amid the latest shooting headlines: crude traded in quite a band with WTI touching $120 yesterday as well as $80, setting $89 so far this morning; European gas prices are down 13% to sub $50as well. Copper, gold not really moving. 10-year off yesterday’s lows +3bps to 4.13%, Dollar lower, DXY at $99 and Bitcoin risk on up 250bps to $70.7k.  Today’s macro data focus is on NFIB Small Biz Survey, weekly ADP, and existing home sales. NFIB out early here this morning small step back 98.8 vs. 99.6 survey and 99.3 last month – index has been hovering around these levels since mid-2025 post tariff concerns.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +0.8%, Meta Platforms +0.6%, Amazon +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%, Nvidia +0.1%, Microsoft unchanged, Apple -0.1%)

  • BioNTech SE ADRs (BNTX) slump 17% after the vaccine maker forecast revenue for 2026 that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Also, the company’s founding duo plan to leave to start a new biotech focused on messenger RNA, the technology behind their blockbuster Covid-19 vaccine.
  • Casey’s General Stores (CASY) slips 2% after the convenience-store operator reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) gains 2% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation to overweight, saying the platform is a winner from AI positioning and its growth outlook is promising.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rises 1.6% after the company’s outlook for revenue in the current quarter exceeded analysts’ estimates, a sign the company is benefiting from solid demand for hardware that helps customers run AI workloads.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) falls 7% after reporting worse-than-expected sales for last quarter, as the retailer continues to struggle to revive years of declining results.
  • Teladoc Health (TDOC) rises 8% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the virtual health-care provider to buy, citing a compelling valuation and a potential exit scenario.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) rises 6% after the drugmaker gave interim results from a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for a rare autoimmune kidney disease. William Blair views the data as a “clear win” for the company.
  • Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) jumps 15% after the biotech reported adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter.

In other corporate news, Disney is said to be close to naming Thomas Mazloum, current head of Disneyland California, as chairman of the company’s parks division. Apple increased iPhone production in India by about 53% last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there. Lego plans to invest heavily in the US, eyeing further gains in market share. Elsewhere on the data front, China’s trade growth accelerated sharply in Jan-Feb (exports +21.8% y/y, imports +19.8% y/y) and came in well above expectations. Chinese nominal exports to major trading partners rose sequentially in Jan-Feb.

Global markets moved risk on in early trading with oil extending declines after Trump’s comments sparked optimism that the war with Iran will end soon. It’s possible that geopolitical risk has peaked, said JPMorgan’s head of International Market Intelligence, but “the tape still feels pretty tentative.” And indeed, futures have since sunk and oil is rebounding following reports this morning of renewed fighting in the Middle East. Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions and have the Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. He’s also said to be weighing options like the release of emergency stockpiles.

“The war in Iran is not over and can intensify again at any moment,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Any gains will remain limited until there are clear signs of an end to hostilities in the Gulf and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improves again.”

According to Goldman trader John Flood, while the market has proven it has the ability to move violently in both directions with dealers short gamma right now, right tail (squeeze) risk at the index level is primed to be the most extreme. HF gross leverage is essentially at an all time high driven by continued shorting (hedging) via macro products. Per GSPB short exposure in US Macro Products (Index + ETF) - as % of total US Gross MV on our Prime book - now stands at the highest level since Sep '22 and ranks in the 93rd percentile vs. the past five years. Yet at the same time, Goldman Sachs cross-asset strategists turn tactically neutral on stocks and overweight on cash for three months, citing mounting risks that the Middle East conflict may spark an energy shock comparable to those of the 1970s.

And while investors often focus on the VIX as the main gauge of market fear, Europe’s underperformance versus the US since the Iran strikes has pushed European volatility higher and widened the V2X/VIX spread.

While AI had taken a backseat in markets amid Iran, but there are a few interesting datapoints to note today. TSMC, the go-to chipmaker for Nvidia, reported a 30% jump in sales in the first two months of the year. HPE gave quarterly revenue guidance that beat estimates, showing the company is benefiting from AI hardware demand. Oracle is reporting after the close, with Tech Watch noting that skittish investors are looking for reasons to sell.

In political news, several Senate Democrats are threatening to force numerous war powers votes and disrupt the chamber unless Republicans agree to hold public hearings on the reasons for the attacks on Iran. A key Republican senator said he’s launched an investigation into the FDA’s recent denials of treatments for rare diseases. And a top Pentagon official sees little chance of resuming negotiations with Anthropic.

 

BioNTech and NIO are among companies due to report results before the market open. Focus will be on BioNTech’s outlook for 2026, according to BI. Earnings from Oracle and Franco-Nevada follow later in the day. Oracle might be more susceptible to cost pressures versus hyperscalers according to BI, which expects adjusted gross margin to contract roughly 400-500 bps in fiscal 2026.

Stoxx 600 up by 2.2%, with banks, tech and travel stocks leading the way, while energy stocks lag as crude declines.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks recovered Tuesday, lifted by an overnight Wall Street rally and easing inflationary risks after President Donald Trump signaled that the Iran war may end soon. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 3.4%, retracing yesterday’s losses. Chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix led the region’s advance, while Australia’s Woodside Energy paced decliners. Equity markets across the region are holding onto fresh optimism after Trump said the war with Iran would be resolved “very soon.” Tuesday’s rebound highlights how quickly markets react to headlines from the Middle East, while cross-asset volatility shows little sign of easing in a fast-moving geopolitical environment. Oil prices plunged in Asia trading following Trump’s comments.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.3% on Tuesday, following US President Donald Trump’s comments that the war with Iran would be resolved “very soon.” The greenback’s G10 peers are paring last-week’s losses, led by the Australian dollar and Swiss franc which are up 0.47% and 0.27% respectively.

In rates, treasuries are under slight pressure in early US trading, unwinding a portion of the late-Monday bid sparked by US President Trump’s suggestion that the strikes on Iran that caused oil prices to surge in the past week may end soon. This week’s three Treasury auctions begin with 3-year new issue at 1pm New York time; 10- and 30-year reopenings follow over next two days.  US yields are 2bp-4bp cheaper with losses led by long-end tenors, steepening 2s10s by about 1bp, 5s30s about 2bp; 10-year near 4.12% is about 2bp cheaper as European bonds outperform, narrowing performance gap that opened Monday when Treasuries rallied after the London close.  UK leading the rally in European bonds, with two-year yields down eight basis points. Yields falling across Europe, with the biggest moves at the short end, though the rally has pared. For $58 billion 3-year note auction, WI yield around 3.578% is 6bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which stopped through by 0.1bp

In commodities, WTI crude futures are back to around $89/barrel after peaking near $120 on Monday. Gold higher to test $5,200/oz. Bitcoin rallying back towards $71,000.

US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am) and February existing home sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.3%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +1.9%
  • DAX +2.1%
  • CAC 40 +1.7%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.11%
  • VIX -1.8 points at 23.66
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1198.68
  • euro little changed at $1.1645
  • WTI crude -8.3% at $86.8/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • “It’s [the war] going to be ended soon," Trump said later at a news conference. Trump did not put a timeline on the end of the war, though, when he was pressed for details. Asked how he squared saying that the war would end "soon" with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks that the attacks are "only just the beginning" during a "60 Minutes" interview taped Friday, Trump said, "I think you could say both." CNBC
  • Trump said he was eyeing a quick end to the war in Iran, as some of his advisers privately urged him to look for an exit plan amid spiking oil prices and concerns that a lengthy conflict could spark political backlash. A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy. WSJ, WaPO
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not let any oil out of the Middle East until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to threaten to hit Iran "twenty times harder" if it blocked exports. RTRS
  • China’s exports surged 21.8% YoY in dollar terms in January and February, putting the world’s 2nd largest economy on course for another year of record trade surpluses weeks before Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing. Export growth in first 2 months of the year far exceeded the median forecast of 7.1% from a Reuters survey and the 6.6% increase in December. FT
  • Apple Inc. increased iPhone production in India by about 53% last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there, reflecting the US company’s efforts to avoid tariffs on China. BBG
  • TSMC’s sales rose 30% in the first two months of the year, driven by strong AI infrastructure buildout. BBG
  • Japan’s annualized GDP growth was revised higher to 1.3% for the fourth quarter, beating estimates, on stronger business investment. BBG
  • UK consumer sentiment dropped to a four-month low in March, reversing gains made at the start of the year. The BRC said British retail sales grew modestly in February. BBG
  • A top Pentagon official sees little chance of resuming negotiations with Anthropic PBC over military use of its artificial intelligence tools following the company’s legal challenge of an unprecedented government move to declare the firm a supply-chain risk. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rose with global risk sentiment underpinned after oil price pressures eased on a potential G7 joint release of emergency reserves, and with relief seen after US President Trump said the war in Iran could end very soon. ASX 200 rallied with gains led by outperformance in miners, materials, tech and healthcare, while there was little reaction seen to the improved consumer sentiment and mixed business surveys. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 54,000 status amid softer yields and as exporters cheered the pullback in energy prices. There were also several data releases, including the final Q4 GDP, which either matched the preliminary numbers or were revised upwards, although Household Spending disappointed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were in the green, although the mainland bourse lagged behind its regional peers after reports that the US and China clashed over fentanyl and tariffs at a global drugs meeting, while the Trump administration told Beijing it expects to reimpose the fentanyl-related levy ⁠under a different law.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Balance of Trade (Jan-Feb) 213.62B vs. Exp. 179.6B (Prev. 114.10B, Rev. From 114.1B).
  • Chinese Exports YoY (Jan-Feb) Y/Y 19.2% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 6.6%).
  • Chinese Imports YoY (Jan-Feb) Y/Y 19.8% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 5.7%).
  • Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) Q/Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.6%, Rev. From -0.7%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.4%).
  • Japanese GDP Growth Annualized Final (Q4) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -2.3%, Rev. From -2.6%, Low. 0.3%, High. 1.5%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +2.1%) have rebounded from Monday's losses, with many of the indices returning out of correction territory (>10% pullback from ATHs). The IBEX 35 (+3.1%) is the outperformer, with gains in Santander (+5.9%) supporting the index after the Co.'s President bought 300,000 shares for almost EUR 3mln, as well as the improvement in overall risk tone. The brighter risk  environment follows Monday's comments by US President Trump, who suggested that the Iran war could be coming to an end. European sectors are in the green, ex-Energy (-0.7%). Sectors that have been hit the hardest due to the Iran war have seemed to have bounced the highest this morning, with Banks (+4.1%), Basic Resources (+3.5%) and Travel and Leisure (+3.5%) sitting near the top of the pile.

Top European News

  • French Balance of Trade (Jan) -1.8B vs. Exp. -4.6B (Prev. -4.3B, Rev. From -4.8B).
  • French Exports (Jan) 53.4B (Prev. 53.0B, Rev. From 53.1B).
  • French Imports (Jan) 55.3B (Prev. 57.3B, Rev. From 57.9B).
  • German Balance of Trade (Jan) 21.2B vs. Exp. 15.2B (Prev. 17.1B, Rev. From 17.1B).
  • German Imports MoM (Jan) M/M -5.9% (Prev. 1.4%).
  • German Exports MoM (Jan) M/M -2.3% vs. Exp. -2% (Prev. 4.0%, Rev. From 4%, Low. -2%, High. -1.5%).
  • Italian PPI YoY (Jan) Y/Y -1.6% (Prev. -1.4%).
  • Italian PPI MoM (Jan) M/M 1.5% (Prev. -0.7%).

FX

  • DXY initially traded flat, before slipping a touch as the morning progressed. Today’s current range is contained within 98.492-98.939 at the time of writing. The day ahead of the US sees weekly ADP and Existing Home sales, although price action will likely be dictated by sentiment surrounding geopolitics.
  • EUR/USD is flat with a mild upward bias, but consolidating after yesterday’s Trump-led slide in the USD, with the pair notching a 1.1507-1.1637 range on Monday, vs the current 1.1606-1.1636 range thus far on Tuesday. No move was seen to the German Trade Balance data. As above, price action will likely be dictated by geopolitical and/or energy updates.
  • GBP/USD is among the better performers with Cable rising above its 200 DMA (1.3443) to a current high of 1.3483 (vs low 1.3413). This follows yesterday’s surge above its 100 DMA (1.3398) amid the aforementioned USD price action, with Tuesday’s range between 1.3282 and 1.3446.
  • USD/JPY lacked direction overnight, and continues to trade sideways this morning after slipping beneath the 158.00 level yesterday, with little reaction to a batch of data releases from Japan, including Q4 GDP revisions that either matched or exceeded the preliminary numbers, while Household Spending surprisingly contracted. USD/JPY currently resides within 157.27-157.96 vs Monday’s 157.63-158.90 range.
  • Antipodeans are mixed with AUD/USD outperforming amid firmer copper prices and better-than-expected Chinese trade data overnight, which showed double-digit percentage jumps in exports and imports for Australia and New Zealand's largest trading partner. AUD/NZD, meanwhile, has risen back above 1.1950 and edges closer to 1.2000.
  • NOK weakened in the aftermath of softer-than-expected CPI data, with the pair, in a delayed reaction, lifting from 11.1350 to 11.1650 in the five minutes following the release, before hitting an 11.1825 peak around 20 minutes later. The pair made a session high at 11.2334, before pulling back towards the 11.1900 mark.

Fixed Income

  • A bullish start for fixed, as the complex continues to unwind the energy-induced sell-off from the start of the week.
  • USTs are firmer by 10 ticks and at the top of a 112-14+ to 112-24+ band. Continuing to grind higher as energy benchmarks remain under pressure. The US day ahead is primarily a waiting game for any further administration updates on the timeline of the conflict, in addition to a 3yr tap.
  • The upside today is most pronounced in Gilts as they catch up to the late Monday commentary from Trump, that the Middle East conflict could be over soon. Gilts gapped higher by 57 ticks, eclipsing the 91.00 handle before continuing to a 91.39 peak, taking out Friday's 91.25 best. If the move continues, there is a bit of a gap before the 92.00 mark and then a cluster of levels just above. Given this, yields have pared notably. The UK 10yr notched a 4.79% peak yesterday, its highest since 4.86% from the 3rd of September 2025. This morning, the 10yr has been as low as 4.53%.
  • Bunds are bid, even though the benchmark lifted by over 50 ticks late Monday on the Trump interview. Currently, firmer by 33 ticks but around 25 off a 127.53 peak. Similarly to Gilts, a bit of a gap now before the 128.00 mark and then a cluster of recent levels above. For the ECB, the action has helped markets to calm from the extreme pricing adjustments on Monday. Where, at one point, two 25bps hikes were priced. Currently, around 20bps of tightening is implied by end-2026, vs. c. 7bps this time last week.

Commodities

  • Crude futures declined and have completely retraced this week's opening surge. Downside follows comments from US President Trump, who suggested that the war with Iran will end soon. However, comments from the Iranian side this morning has shown little sign of constructive relations, as the Iranian Parliament Speaker said they do not seek a ceasefire. WTI Apr resides towards the middle of USD 84.43-91.48/bbl, while Brent May similar trades mid-range of USD 88.05-98.04/bbl.
  • Nat Gas futures were similarly hit, with Dutch TTF this morning -15% and under EUR 50/MWh once again, with the market aggressively "pricing out" the previous risk premium amid US President Trump’s comments.
  • Spot gold continues to edge higher, with the metals complex helped by recent dollar softening and as buying resumed amid hopes of a nearing conclusion to the hostilities and disruption in the Middle East. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 5,117.51-5,195.40 /oz range vs Monday’s hefty USD 5,014.58-5,192.04/oz parameter, in which gold closed at USD 5,136.60/oz.
  • Copper futures advanced alongside the improvement in risk appetite, with little initial reaction seen to the latest trade data from the red metal's largest buyer, China. To recap, Trade Balance, Imports, and Exports smashed expectations. China combined its Jan-Feb data to account for the Lunar New Year holiday distortions. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,992.00- 13,129.00/t.
  • G7 Energy Ministers to meet at 12:45GMT / 08:45EDT.
  • Saudi Aramco CEO sees global oil demand to reach record high of 107.3mln BPD in 2026.
  • Saudi Aramco CEO said there is a disruption of around 180mln barrels so far; there are no problems related to storage capacity locally or internationally; CEO declines to comment on current oil production levels. "We will operate the East-West Pipeline at full capacity within two days". Have 2mln BPD of spare capacity, so if there are any shutdowns amid the current situation, bringing that spare capacity back will take a matter of days.
  • Saudi Aramco plans to increase refining capacity in strategic regions.
  • Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and Kuwait reportedly cut oil output by as much as 6.7mln BPD in total, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
  • Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the adjustment of price limits and margin ratios for some fuel oil, petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber futures.
  • Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT) declares a force majeure on some supplies.
  • Taiwan's Cabinet said it is to further cut the commodity tax on gasoline and diesel to 50%.
  • Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa said Japan supports the IEA-led coordinated release of strategic oil reserves.
  • Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara reiterates no decision has been made on releasing strategic oil reserves.

Central Banks

  • ECB's Muller said the chance of rate hit has increased but should not rush, need to see if the surge in energy prices is transitory or not.
  • ECB's Simkus said it is important to stay calm until the next policy decision and not to over react, we are aware of the recent changes in market pricing but should stay the course for now.
  • RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said Australia's economy is overall in good shape and there will be a very genuine policy debate at the board meeting, with arguments on both sides. A 5% peak for inflation probably looks a little on the pessimistic side; our response depends on size and persistence of the price shock, which is very uncertain. Inflation is too high. Oil price rise clearly an upside risk to the inflation projection but still in flux. Recent data seem to confirm even more decisively that the economy has limited spare capacity. Not all domestic data came in as strongly as expected, including consumption. Uncertainty over developments in Iran is extremely high. Data seems to confirm the economy has limited spare capacity.

Geopolitics

  • Iranian Parliament Speaker said we do not seek a ceasefire and believe in the necessity of teaching the aggressor a harsh lesson.
  • Iranian Army said we attacked the oil and gas refinery and fuel tanks in Haifa with drones, Al Hadath reported.
  • Iranian military said heavy fire will continue to rain down on aggressors.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations with the US are no longer on the agenda.
  • Iran's ambassador to China said that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be controlled, but the Strait will not be closed.
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guards say they will not allow a single litre of oil to be exported from the region if the US and Israeli attacks continue, adds that they will determine how and when the war ends.
  • IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz will be open to any state that expels US and Israeli diplomatic envoys from its territory starting tomorrow.
  • Iran targeted US sites and depots in Kuwait in recent hours, according to Tasnim.
  • US President Trump said it's going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again, Iran will be hit harder, while Trump responded 'no, but soon', when asked if the war will be done this week. said:. Big risk on Iran has been over for three days. We can leave it here but we are going to go further.
  • US President Trump said will hit Iran harder if it attempts to stop world oil supply, adds Strait of Hormuz will be safe and getting close to finishing it regarding 'excursion'. said:. Waiving some oil-related sanctions and will take some sanctions off until this straightens out. Winning very decisively and way ahead of schedule.
  • US President Trump said we're making major strides towards completing military objective and people could say they're pretty well complete, left some of the most important Iran targets for later. said:. Iran's missile capabilities are down to 10% or maybe less. Could hit Iran's electric production, but don't want to. We're ahead of our initial timeline by a lot. Thinks Iran should put in a head that will be peaceful.
  • US President Trump's advisors urged him to find an Iran exit ramp, fearing political backlash, according to WSJ.
  • US-Israel aggression targets houses in the Mehrshahr area of Karaj, western Iran, according to Mehr News Agency.
  • Russia's Kremlin says the trilateral format of the Ukraine talks need to be continued, but no specific dates or locations have been agreed for the next round

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00 am: United States Feb NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 99.6, prior 99.3
  • 10:00 am: United States Feb Existing Home Sales, est. 3.88m, prior 3.91m

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The past 24 hours has seen a dramatic roundtrip in oil markets as the seismic moves seen as we went to press yesterday gave way to increased optimism as President Trump suggested in the US afternoon that the war with Iran could be over “very soon”.  That eased concerns over a longer-term conflict that could trigger a major stagflationary shock and helped drive a turn lower in oil markets. Most notably, Brent crude oil prices pulled back from an intraday peak of $119.50/bbl before the European open to around $90 by the US close, though they’ve edged back up to $93.56 as I type. It even briefly traded as low as $83.66 late in the US session, which marks the largest daily nominal trading range since the start of the intra-day Bloomberg data in the 1980s when oil futures begun. The easing stress in oil markets rippled into other asset classes, with the S&P 500 (+0.83%) and 10yr Treasuries (-4.2bps) closing stronger on the day after a sharp initial sell-off.

While market stress had gradually eased through the course of yesterday’s session after peaking in Asia hours, the biggest turning point came after the European close as CBS reported Trump saying that “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”, with the US “very far ahead of schedule”. The President then delivered a similar message in a press conference after the US close, suggesting the war will "be finished pretty quickly". Trump also focused on oil prices, again raising the option of US Navy escorts for tankers and floating the prospect of waivers for “certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices”, without offering details other than he had discussed the topic in a call with Russia’s President Putin yesterday.

Those Trump comments helped ease market fears of a prolonged conflict that would turn into a more sustained energy shock. However, the timing for any resolution of the war remains far from clear, with Trump also saying that “we haven’t won enough” and that he didn’t believe the conflict would be over this week. There are also doubts over Tehran’s willingness to de-escalate, with the IRGC releasing a statement last night that “It is we who will determine the end of the war” and that it would not allow oil to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue. In turn, that prompted Trump to escalate his threats last night, posting that “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far”. And we’ve seen Israel launch a new wave of strikes against Iran overnight, with Gulf countries in turn reporting Iranian strikes.

The lingering uncertainty has seen oil prices tick slightly higher overnight, with Brent crude up to $93.56 from around $90 at the US close yesterday, though that’s still below the $99.40 level they were before the CBS report yesterday evening and some 25% below yesterday’s intra-day highs. Investors will be keenly watching for any signs that shipping via the Strait of Hormuz can pick up from the current all but suspended levels, not least as yesterday Saudi Arabia became the latest country to start cutting oil production. Remember that the oil moves have been much more contained further out the futures curve, with December 2026 Brent futures currently trading at $74.95/bbl. We will also be watching whether plans to release oil reserves materialise. Yesterday’s virtual G7 finance ministers’ meeting didn’t get to that point yet, with their statement saying they “stand ready to take necessary measures”, and France’s finance minister said they were “not there yet”. Overnight, Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said that G7 energy ministers are expected to meet to discuss the process of oil reserve release today.

Markets in Asia are of course rebounding this morning given the timing of the Trump speech, with the KOSPI rising by +4.63% and the Nikkei increasing by +2.55%, both recovering sharply after having closed nearly -6.0% and over -5.0% lower yesterday, respectively. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are also on the rise, with the Hang Seng index increasing by +1.76%, outperforming the CSI (+1.09%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.39%). The S&P/ASX 200 is +0.85%. Europe’s STOXX 50 futures (+1.00%) are reversing Monday’s decline but those on the S&P 500 (-0.20%) have dipped in the absence of imminent de-escalation.

Coming back to China, the trade surplus (+$213.62 bn) rose to its highest on record in the combined January-February period (v/s $176.10 bn expected) while exports rose +21.8% y/y, beating the +7.2% growth expected, underscoring the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy despite trade tensions with the US.

Looking back at yesterday’s moves, the volatility in oil prices reverberated through rates markets, especially when it comes to inflation pricing. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap moved as high as 3.10% intra-day before closing all the way down at 2.75%, -15.5bps lower on the day, with a near 20bps decline after the CBS story broke shortly after 3pm EST. And the news saw yields on 2yr (-2.4bps to 3.54%) and 10yr (-4.2bps to 4.10%) Treasuries close at the session’s lows after a 10-12bp intra-day range that saw 10yr yields peak at 4.21% just before London opened. Treasury yields are edging higher overnight, with the 10yr +1.5bps higher as the pattern of underperformance during Asia hours is again repeating, albeit mildly.

For equity markets, the turn in sentiment helped the S&P 500 recover to +0.83% by yesterday’s close after rebounding by more than 1% in the final hour of trading. S&P 500 futures had been down as much as -2.4% in Asia hours yesterday. The NASDAQ (+1.38%) and the Russell 2000 (+1.12%) posted even stronger recoveries, while the VIX index fell by -3.99pts on the day to 25.50 after peaking above 35 at the European open. 

Over in Europe, markets recovered from the lows early in the session but closed before Trump’s comments to CBS News triggered the more risk-on tone. That left the STOXX 600 -0.63% lower on day, up from -2.46% shortly after the open, while the CAC (-0.77%) and DAX (-0.98%) saw slightly larger declines. Most sovereign bonds saw a fuller reversal of the sell-off, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.4bps), OATs (-0.5bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) all little changed by the close, having been between +7bps and +15bps higher on Monday morning as inflation concerns mounted. One bond market that struggled to fully recover was UK gilts, with markets at one point pricing in 20bps of BoE rate hikes this year, from pricing more than 50bps of rate cuts before the strikes on February 28. While 2026 BoE hikes were largely priced out by yesterday’s close, 2yr gilts yields were still +11.7bps higher at 3.99%, with 10yr yields +2.0bps on the day.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the existing home sales for February, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Simkus and Muller.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 08:30

Diversity Wars: Pro-Palestine Watermelon Mural Triggers Black Community In Richmond

Diversity Wars: Pro-Palestine Watermelon Mural Triggers Black Community In Richmond

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In Richmond, Virginia, a pro-Palestine mural has sparked massive backlash from Black residents, who have taken offense to the watermelon in the image, suggesting it recalls degrading stereotypes of the Jim Crow era.

The mural, splashed across a building at the intersection of Brookland Park Boulevard and North Avenue in Richmond’s Northside—a historically Black neighborhood now facing gentrification—depicts a darker-skinned Palestinian woman holding a slice of watermelon.

The seeds are cleverly arranged to spell out “Free Palestine,” with olives and a keffiyeh adding to the symbolism. Painted by Los Angeles-based artist Lauren YS, the piece was intended as a show of defiance against what supporters call Israeli occupation.

Dr. Faedah Totah, a professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, explained the watermelon’s role in Palestinian activism. “The Palestinian flag has four colors, red, white, black, and green, which also happens to be the color of a slice of a watermelon,” Totah said. “So, what ends up happening when you ban the flag is that people become creative in finding different ways to express their national identity.” The symbol dates back to 1967, when Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza, banning the Palestinian flag and forcing activists to get inventive.

But in this American context, the choice has landed like a lead balloon. Jonathan Davis, former president of the Richmond Crusade for Voters and the Battery Park Civic Association, remarked “I was taken aback because of the imagery that it represents, a watermelon up to the mouth of a Black woman,” Davis said. “So to me, understanding the history of our people and what happened during the Jim Crow era and how those images were used to demean us and make fun of us and ridicule us and run us out of the business, it really bothered me.”

Davis’s words capture the raw hurt felt by many in the community, where watermelon caricatures were weaponized during segregation to mock and marginalize Black Americans. It’s a stereotype rooted in post-Civil War propaganda, portraying freed slaves as childlike and obsessed with the fruit to undermine their progress.

William McGee, president of the Richmond chapter of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, suggested reworking the mural to bridge both causes without including the ‘offensive’ imagery. Civil rights activist Gary Flowers went further, proposing to replace the watermelon with a Palestinian flag alongside a Black liberation flag. Flowers also blasted the building owner and artist for skipping community input before installing the piece.

Lauren YS, who is Chinese American, defended the work in a statement, insisting any link to racist caricatures was unintentional. The artist tied the symbols explicitly to “Palestinian heritage, nationality, longevity and steadfastness,” framing the mural as “an emblem of perseverance, solidarity, and defiance against the occupation and the horrific slaughter of over 31,000 people.”

The building owner and critics are now eyeing a town hall to hash out community feedback, potentially leading to alterations.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 08:05

As Trade Growth Surged, Goldman's One-Delta Desk-Head Asks "Is China Done Exporting Deflation?"

As Trade Growth Surged, Goldman's One-Delta Desk-Head Asks "Is China Done Exporting Deflation?"

China's trade growth accelerated sharply in January-February (exports: +21.8% yoy, imports: +19.8% yoy) and came in well above consensus expectations, prompting Goldman's Rich Privorotsky to ask:

Rebounding aggressively. China exports were strong and CPI came in hot earlier in the week, prompting the question: is China done exporting deflation?

Government data showed that exports soared 22% during the period, compared with a 7.2% median estimate from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Imports jumped nearly 20%, according to a statement released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. The trade surplus came in at $214 billion, an all-time high for the January-February period.

Notably, both months are combined to smooth out any distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday.

While on the face of it, one could argue that trade flows show China is becoming less reliant on the US market. Exports to the US fell 11%, while shipments to Africa surged nearly 50%. Exports to ASEAN rose more than 29%, and shipments to the EU climbed almost 28%.

This data suggests Beijing is finding alternative markets as the Trump administration's 'America First' agenda decouples from China.

However, instead of exporting to the US, China is 'trans-shipping'. Exports from China to Vietnam are soaring inversely to the decline in exports to US...

...and then Vietnam's exports to the US are soaring...

Total exports for January nearly topped $357 billion, the second-highest on record, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data.

Société Générale SA economist Michelle Lam said surging trade volumes in China were due to strong tech product demand driven by the artificial intelligence boom.

Among major categories and in sequential terms, import value of semiconductors increased the most, followed by metal ores and products, while import value of energy goods decreased (mainly from natural gas and coal). In year-over-year terms, chip imports continued to accelerate by 40.0% yoy in January-February.

Also on the import side, Crude volumes rose sharply in January and February as Beijing amassed reserves, pre-empting Mideast risks, and analysts say it provides a strong buffer for global supply disruptions.

China imported 96.93 million tonnes of crude in January and February, up 15.8 per cent from the same period in 2025, according to customs data released on Tuesday. The value of those imports, meanwhile, fell 5.2 per cent from last year in US dollar terms.

"China was accumulating oil and gas stockpiles [earlier this year], with the market expecting the US to strike Iran," said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"It built on the record-breaking strong stockpiling momentum we saw in 2025."

While highly exposed to Middle Eastern oil, China has built a substantial stockpile - which Lee estimated to be around 120 days of import cover - that provides a buffer against potential supply shocks.

"China should also benefit from AI supply chain-related goods," Lam said. "That supports our view that there is no major growth risks despite modest stimulus this year, helped by export demand, with US-Iran situation risks to watch."

The trade data comes after China's consumer inflation accelerated to the highest in more than three years, while producer deflation persisted, with soft demand remaining a drag on the economy.

The positive start to the year came just before Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East upended global energy markets and commercial shipping lanes. This now poses a severe risk for the world's largest exporter as the economic fallout from an energy shock may first weigh on industry.

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said, "Tensions in the Middle East will push inflation higher for as long as global energy prices remain elevated."

"An extended conflict in an oil-producing region will fuel inflation, reduce room for monetary easing, and negatively affect global growth outlook — that, in turn, will affect China's exports," said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia for Standard Chartered Plc. "Given the uncertainty about how long the war will last, I think it is too early to think about stimulus. In fact, the growth target for 2026 was lowered partly to deal with an unpredictable situation like this."

The trade and inflation data come just weeks before the summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump to discuss ways to end the trade war. A potential mega Boeing-China jet deal may suggest positive results could emerge from the upcoming meeting.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 07:45

Anthropic Sues Pentagon Over 'Supply-Chain Risk' Designation As White House Preps EO To Disentangle

Anthropic Sues Pentagon Over 'Supply-Chain Risk' Designation As White House Preps EO To Disentangle

Update: A top Pentagon official sees little chance of resuming negotiations with Anthropic over military use of its AI tools after the company launched their lawsuit. 

On Monday, under secretary of defense for research and engineering said that the lawsuit was an 'expected reaction' and that the company's move wouldn't alter the pentagon's decision.

"I don’t think there’s a scenario where this gets resolved in that way," he told Bloomberg

A former Uber Technologies Inc. executive now overseeing a Pentagon effort to accelerate AI adoption, Michael had held weeks of tense negotiations with Anthropic Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei over terms for using the firm’s AI tools. Talks broke down roughly two weeks ago, after the company demanded assurances that its AI wouldn’t be used for mass surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons deployment.

That prompted the Pentagon to declare San Francisco-based Anthropic a supply-chain risk, a move normally reserved for companies from adversarial nations. Until recently, Anthropic had provided the only AI system that could operate in the Pentagon’s classified cloud, and its Claude Gov tool has become a favored option among defense personnel for its ease of use. 

Meanwhile, Axios reports that the White House is preparing an executive order that will formally instruct the federal government to disentangle Anthropic from operations. 

A White House official said "any policy announcement will come directly from" the president and that "discussion about potential executive orders is speculation."

Various agencies such as the Treasury Department have already begun to offboard Anthropic. 

Also meanwhile, Anthropic says that the Pentagon feud could cost it billions

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Artificial intelligence (AI) developer Anthropic sued the Department of War on March 9, following the federal government’s designation of the company as a supply chain risk.

The Anthropic logo, in this photo illustration. Dado Ruvic/Reuters

That designation hinders government agencies and their contractors from working with Anthropic.

The suit comes after the company refused to change the user policy for its AI tool Claude to allow the government to use it for what Anthropic described as “mass surveillance” and “fully autonomous weapons.”

The Pentagon has denied that it planned to use Claude for such purposes.

The refusal caused President Donald Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth to direct federal agencies to sever ties with Anthropic and state that “effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic.”

On social media, both Trump and Hegseth accused Anthropic of trying to “strong-arm” the federal government by dictating its military policy.

WE will decide the fate of our Country—NOT some out-of-control, Radical Left AI company run by people who have no idea what the real World is all about,” Trump said in a Feb. 27 Truth Social post.

“Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military,” Hegseth said on X the same day. “That is unacceptable.”

Anthropic alleges that the federal government is punishing the company for its First Amendment-protected speech and viewpoint.

The company also alleges that the Department of War reached out to some of its business partners following the rift and that those companies “delayed or paused several national security contracts or business engagements already in active development with Anthropic.” That puts “millions, possibly billions, of dollars at risk,” Anthropic stated.

These actions are unprecedented and unlawful,” Anthropic’s lawsuit reads.

“The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech. No federal statute authorizes the actions taken here.

“Anthropic turns to the judiciary as a last resort to vindicate its rights and halt the executive’s unlawful campaign of retaliation.”

In its filing, Anthropic said it isn’t confident that Claude “would function safely or reliably” if used for those purposes. Anthropic’s suit asks the court to set aside Trump and Hegseth’s designation as unconstitutional.

The lawsuit also names the US Treasury and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the State Department, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with 17 other government agencies and officials.

A group of more than 30 AI engineers and scientists from OpenAI and Google, including the latter’s chief scientist, Jeff Dean, also filed a legal brief in support of Anthropic on Monday.

“If allowed to proceed, this effort to punish one of the leading U.S. AI companies will undoubtedly have consequences for the United States’ industrial and scientific competitiveness in the field of artificial intelligence and beyond,” the group wrote.

The Pentagon declined to comment on the suit.

The Pentagon previously said the company must accept “any lawful use” of its tools and technology to support the U.S. military.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 07:20

Sheikhspeare

Sheikhspeare

Authored by James Alexander via DailySceptic.org,

Hegel said everything important in world history happens twice.

Marx added, grimly: “The first time as tragedy, the second as farce.”

And here is my thrupenny bit.

Everything important said by anyone in world history is said twice: the first time as farcical observation, the second as academic argument.

As evidence I submit the following.

A few weeks ago I took a brief look at the hypothesis that Shakespeare was a black lady. I accepted with grave pleasure the fact that Shakespeare is an anagram of A She-Speaker: but, of course I had to be caustic about the claim accompanying the staggering anagram. And against the argument that the name Shakespeare might allude to Shakti, the female power that lies underneath all existence, I solemnly ventured the observation that it might equally and oppositely – equality and opposition being essential to scepticism – allude to the Arabic word Sheikh, and the male power that lies underneath all existence.

That was the farce.

Now the academic argument.

Today I received a notification from Academia.edu telling me about a piece written by Sushil K. Jain from Canada, entitled, and hold your breath, ‘Shakespeare, the Sheikh, Who Became a Peer’, subtitled, ‘The Eastern Mind Behind the English Stage: A New Model of Shakespearian Authorship’, published 2026. There we are. First time as farce, second time as academic argument.

I have printed it out and will let you know what it says. It is 120 pages long. Actually, it is not very academic, though it has a fair number of citations and is written in a sort of AI-neutral prose style.

Right, I read it last night. The first thing I have to say is that the author nowhere says that he is guilty of a woeful pun. “The Sheikh who became a Peer”, indeed. Jain’s style – and I do not know how much any AI bot was involved in the writing of this: it is very smooth and laborious and explanatory and is very easy to skip through without missing anything – is Indian-joyful and also solemn or serious: and I think this is because Jain is beating the drum of modern globalism, cosmopolitanism, anywhereism, in such a way that his line of thought might sing in the contemporary academic world of postcolonialism and immigration studies. Let’s hear him in his own words.

Shakespeare’s plays bear the unmistakeable imprint of a Persian-educated, Indian-heritage, Arabic-speaking scholar...

... [They] exhibit a depth of cultural knowledge — of Ottoman-Venetian politics, Indian Ocean trade, Persian narrative structures and Islamic intellectual traditions — that exceeds what Shakespeare could plausibly have accessed through reading alone.

Evidence? Well, it is mostly speculation according to the following grand logic:

  • Hypothesis: Would have.

  • Lemma: Could have.

  • Corollary: Should have.

  • Result: Did.

But there are allusions to Othello (of course), Aaron the Moor in Titus Andronicus, the Indian boy (never seen) in Midsummer Night’s Dream, and, as usual, the one play that is always essential in the most sober or the most drunken Shakespeare analysis, The Tempest. Oddly enough, there is nothing about the history plays. Yes, indeed, the Sheikh didn’t contribute much to Henry IV Part I, did he? But why was Shakespeare so digressive? Ah, well, in order to explain why Shakespeare abandoned Aristotle and the preservation of the unities we have to allege that he, or one of his cronies, knew Persian.

Like every sensible reader of Shakespeare, Jain notices that there is a gap between “the monumental works” and “the modest documentary trail”. That’s right: in order to make sense of Shakespeare at all, we have to ask the question: why do we know so little about the greatest writer of English?

But Jain putters out with mumblings, politically correct mumblings, about Shakespeare’s “global imagination”. Now, it is amusing to think that a scholar could have come to London from a birthplace such as “Surat, Cambay, Hormuz, Masulipatuam or the Swahili coast”, via an education in “Shiraz, Isfahan, Lahore, Bijapur, Cambay or Hormuz”, could have somehow acquired mastery of Arabic theology, Persian literature and Indian geography, could have worked for, say, the Levant Company, which was founded in 1581, and finally could have been taken up by one of the artistic households of the Earls of Leicester, Essex or Southampton.

He sells the book by saying that Oxfordians and Baconians can only explain Shakespeare by saying there was a conspiracy of silence, whereas, according to his explanation, Sheikhspeare (and Jain, sadly, never goes so far as to call him this: come on, man, assert your hypothesis more strongly!) was part of a collaborative enterprise involving “encounter and exchange”. Yes, not conspiracy theory but more proof that England has always been a nation of immigrants. Disappointingly, the only books on the authorship debate which Jain cites were written by J. Bate, J. Shapiro, S. Wells, G. Taylor and A. Nelson, who are all famous for being mightily opposed to any suggestion that Shuxpur was not the daft lad from Stratfud. Where are the researches of R. Strittmatter. N. Green, D. Price, E. Showerman, M. Anderson and A. Waugh? Nowhere. Ah, Jain has a lot of reading to do.

He dedicates his book to Irene Coslet, the author of The Real Shakespeare, which alleges the black lady hypothesis. I am astounded that Jain has devoted so many man hours to this odd little hundred-page project. So far it has 14 views: so the algorithm obviously knows quite a lot about me to know that it should send me this.

I tried to find out who Jain is on Google and came away a bit bewildered. There seem to be many Shulil K. Jains. One is an old man, who was associated with Canterbury College, University of Windsor in Canada. There was some trouble, as he was arrested and charged with embezzlement in 2024 and was reported as being part of a $850,000 lawsuit. Nothing seems to have come of it, as he is still writing in his retirement, aged over 80. I am not going to join the dots, as that is not my sort of thing: I want others to do the research, and then I’ll read it. Just as with Shakespeare.

What do I think about the hypothesis?

Well, as I argued about Shakespeare as a black woman, it is interesting to briefly contemplate such a suggestion, and read a bit of W.S. with it in mind.

But this one is too much of a stretch, and, alas, it is very unlikely that a crowd of writers collaborating on plays would be willing to take advice from an austere Easterner who would drone on about Persian literary structure.

“Please,” says the Sheikh, “let me put a little Indian boy in the play.” “Alright,” sighs Shakespeare, “but not onstage.” “Please,” says the Sheikh, “does Othello have to kill that Turk?” “London audiences,” replies Shakespeare, “love a bit of sanguinary stuff. Look, bestill yourself or begone: go and find a pipe and pathic or something. I need to write…” “Please, just one more thing,” says the Sheikh, “Where is The Tempest set? Is it Bermuda, Gran Canaria, or, possibly – the Swahili coast?” “Fuck off,” says Shakespeare.

The next suggestion has to be that Shakespeare was the son of an Aztec, perhaps a grandson of Montezuma, whose father was brought back to Spain in 1541 by stout Cortes: this small boy, born around 1550, then travelled through Italy, becoming a refined gentleman and literary expert, before amusing Queen Elizabeth with his typically huitzilopochtlian storytelling style, but now imposed on English and Italian subjects. Shakesalcoatl was always tempted to have Macbeth’s head thrown down from the top of a ziggurat by Malcolm. And The Tempest, of course, was set on, dear oh dear, Little Saint James.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 05:00

Coal Prices Surge As Energy Shock Forces Power Plant Fuel Switching In Exposed Countries

Coal Prices Surge As Energy Shock Forces Power Plant Fuel Switching In Exposed Countries

Asian benchmark Newcastle coal prices jumped more than 9% to $150/ton (as per BBG data) at the start of the week, as energy flows across the Gulf area remain disrupted and transit through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly slowed. The rise in coal prices is being driven by a broader energy shock, with surging gas prices making coal a more economical substitute fuel for power generators.

Last week's IRGC kamikaze drone attack, which shuttered Qatar's massive LNG export facility - responsible for roughly 20% of global supply - has been the driving force behind gas-to-coal switching, especially in Europe, as gas prices have soared 50%.

Samantha Dart (Global Co-Head of Commodities Research) penned a note late this weekend on natural gas:

"European natural gas prices (TTF) closed the week up 88% from pre-Iran-conflict levels, at 53 EUR/MWh. For context, approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes flow through the Strait of Hormuz, largely produced by Qatar, and no reroutes exist. This flow is 100% halted at the moment, with Qatari production fully down following a drone attack.

We base-case that Qatari LNG production will be restored by early April, and we have accordingly raised our April TTF forecast to 55 EUR/MWh, well into the 45 EUR/MWh (fuel oil) to 71 EUR/MWh (diesel) gas-to-oil switching range because we think increased fuel switching away from gas will be required to normalize European gas storage ahead of the next winter. We have not changed our 21 EUR/MWh 2027 TTF forecast. In a scenario where the Qatari supply shock lasts over 1 month, we would expect TTF prices to rally further to the mid-70 EURs/MWh, where diesel is currently priced, to incentivize further switching. A scenario where the shock lasts longer than two months would likely lift TTF above 100 EUR/MWh to incentivize broader industrial demand destruction across Europe and Asia."

Notice that Exhibit 2 above shows TTF is already in the coal-switching range. The rest of Dart's note can be read here

In a separate note, UBS analyst Manik Narain warned of EM energy risks if the Hormuz chokepoint remains clogged:

"EM Asia appears most directly at risk, accounting for ~73% of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. 40-70% of India, Korea and Thailand's oil supply transits this route; while Thailand and Taiwan generate 45-60% of electricity from gas, indicating potential price risks to tech and other industrial supply chains if the conflict doesn't abate soon."

The duration of the conflict is key because higher NatGas prices will only spur continued gas-to-coal switching.

UBS highlighted that EM power generation in countries such as Mexico, Thailand, and Taiwan remains heavily exposed to oil and gas, leaving electricity systems vulnerable as fuel prices surge. Taiwan stands out, given its major role in the global AI chip supply chain, meaning rising power costs there could have implications far beyond domestic electricity markets.

Related:

Operation Epic Fury has been one way to 'Make Coal Great Again'...

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 04:15

London Museum Hides Portrait Behind Cloth To "Reclaim" Caribbean History

London Museum Hides Portrait Behind Cloth To "Reclaim" Caribbean History

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In yet another brazen attempt to erase history, the London Museum Docklands has half-covered a portrait of 18th-century merchant Beeston Long with Madras cloth, all in the name of “reclaim[ing] Caribbean history.” This symbolic shrouding targets Long’s investments in Jamaican plantations, turning a piece of British maritime legacy into a virtue-signaling prop.

Critics see this as part of the left’s relentless campaign to erase uncomfortable truths about the past, prioritizing feelings over history and sidelining the achievements of figures who built modern Britain. With new panels lecturing visitors that such artworks can “obscure” or “sanitise” links to slavery and “evoke emotional responses,” the museum is pushing a narrative that gives “voice to those whose cultures have been impacted by colonialism.”

The portrait of Beeston Long, a former Bank of England governor who oversaw Docklands expansion, now hangs partially obscured by cloth exported to the Caribbean during colonial times. Museum officials claim this intervention helps “reclaim the histories of colonised Caribbean nations” and celebrates the Windrush Generation’s influence.

They assert the Caribbean community was “essential” to the area and “invited to migrate to Britain to help rebuild the ‘mother country’” between 1948 and 1971, noting arrivals “created the Tower Hamlets we know today.”

Displays further declare: “Many of the objects in this gallery were created for and through the oppression of enslaved people. European colonialists exploited African and Asian peoples and lands relentlessly.”

To top it off, an installation called Holding Emotions offers visitors ways to “reclaim wellbeing” and “ground yourself,” complete with doodling tips and comfy seats for those triggered by history.

This isn’t an isolated incident. Recall the removal of Robert Milligan’s statue outside the same museum in 2020 amid Black Lives Matter unrest, which remains in storage. National Museum Cardiff yanked a painting of colonial governor Thomas Picton in 2021 to “decolonise” its collection.

As we’ve covered before, this woke purge has targeted icons across the West. In Wales, the government flagged statues of “old white men” like Admiral Horatio Nelson – an “aggressor who conquered peoples” – General Arthur Wellesley, Charles, 2nd Earl Grey (an abolitionist), and Winston Churchill for removal, claiming they fuel perceptions of white male dominance and “can be offensive to people today.”

Across the pond, Theodore Roosevelt’s equestrian statue at New York’s American Museum of Natural History was covered and removed in 2021, labeled a symbol of “racial hierarchy” despite honoring him as a naturalist. It was shipped to North Dakota on “indefinite loan.”

Thomas Jefferson’s 187-year-old statue was crated and hauled out of New York City Hall that same year over his slave-owning past, with lawmakers calling him a “slaveholding pedophile” and offensive. Republican Joe Borelli accused Mayor de Blasio of a “progressive war on history.”

Even anti-slavery heroes weren’t safe: In 2021, statues of abolitionist William Pitt in Edinburgh and biologist Thomas Henry Huxley at Imperial College London faced removal for vague “links to the British Empire” and papers that “might now be called ‘racist.’” One critic noted: “This is what happens when Edinburgh Council hands editorial control… to a secretive cabal of activists.”

But there’s hope on the horizon. Last year, President Trump signed an executive order to restore improperly removed statues and monuments, overhauling the Smithsonian to ditch “divisive, race-centered” narratives and return to “truthful and uplifting views of American history.”

The order, titled “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History,” tasks officials with reviewing and reinstating monuments taken down in the past five years, aiming to make museums “educate rather than indoctrinate” by July 4, 2026. As the White House stated, many were removed to “perpetuate a false revision of history.”

This latest London fiasco underscores how leftist institutions continue their assault on Western heritage, using “reclamation” as cover to divide and demoralize. Many see it as cultural vandalism, a removal of the unvarnished story of our past – warts and all – for future generations.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 03:30

Gulf Firms Seek Millions In Political Violence Coverage Amid Rising Tensions

Gulf Firms Seek Millions In Political Violence Coverage Amid Rising Tensions

Companies across the Gulf are rushing to purchase political violence insurance as regional fighting intensifies, seeking protection for major infrastructure and commercial properties against the growing risk of attacks and collateral damage, according to FT.

Insurers and brokers say they have received hundreds of inquiries in recent days from asset owners looking for coverage that protects against war-related threats. The policies typically cover damage caused by terrorism, missile debris, civil unrest, strikes, riots and other forms of political instability.

Demand has surged as the conflict in the Middle East expands, with Iran and allied groups launching missile and drone strikes against Israel and nearby countries following a joint U.S.–Israeli bombing campaign. Investors and businesses in Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Oman are increasingly concerned about the possibility that the violence could spill over into neighboring economies.

Industry experts say the financial impact of the conflict could be unusually large. Fergus Critchley, global head of terrorism and political violence at broker WTW, warned the current crisis could produce losses “significantly larger and more catastrophic” than those seen in recent years.

FT writes that much of the new demand is coming from Western companies operating in the Gulf, which insurers say are often considered more likely targets. Raj Rana, who leads war and terrorism coverage at broker Bowring Marsh, said his firm alone has fielded more than 50 requests for political violence coverage since last weekend.

Requests have come from a range of sectors, including renewable energy and hospitality. Solar projects in Saudi Arabia and hotels in Bahrain and Qatar have all sought protection as companies worry about both direct attacks and indirect damage such as falling shrapnel from intercepted missiles.

Digital infrastructure has also faced threats. Drone strikes this week targeted data centers operated by Amazon in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, according to security experts who suspect Iranian involvement. Microsoft said its regional operations had not been disrupted.

Some businesses in the region already carried terrorism insurance before the conflict escalated. However, brokers now recommend broader political violence coverage, which also protects against unrest such as riots, strikes and civil disturbances.

The surge in demand has pushed premiums sharply higher. Insurers say prices rose early in the week to several times their previous levels. Previously, coverage for political violence on an energy project in Saudi Arabia or the UAE could cost less than 1 percent of the insured value. By Thursday, the cost had climbed to roughly five times that rate. For example, securing $10 million in coverage for a $20 million project could now cost about $500,000, compared with under $100,000 before the latest escalation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 02:45

"How Can Women Trust The System If Gang-Rapists Can't Be Deported?" - Meloni Rages Against Italian Judiciary

"How Can Women Trust The System If Gang-Rapists Can't Be Deported?" - Meloni Rages Against Italian Judiciary

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has sharply criticized judicial decisions blocking the detention of migrants transferred to Albania, citing the case of a Moroccan rapist with a long criminal record whom authorities say they cannot detain or deport after he applied for international protection.

Speaking to RTL 102.5, Meloni said some court rulings preventing the continued detention of migrants transferred to Italian processing centers in Albania were “surreal” and undermined public safety.

“I also wonder where the feminists are in the face of these events,” Meloni said during the interview, referring to the case of one of the migrants, Moroccan national Fathallah Ouardi, who had been transferred to Albania but was later returned to Italy after judges refused to validate his detention.

Meloni said the man had a lengthy criminal record. “The record of one of these migrants includes convictions for drug dealing, resisting a public official, conspiracy to commit sexual assault, and gang rape,” she said, as cited by Secolo d’Italia.

According to the prime minister, the court rejected the detention order after the migrant applied for international protection.

“This is someone who entered Italy illegally, started dealing drugs, and gang-raped a woman — we can’t detain him, we can’t send him to Albania, we can’t repatriate him, and we’re almost forced to grant him international protection,” she said, adding that such decisions raise serious questions about the protection of victims and public confidence in the justice system.

“How can we guarantee the safety of citizens like this?” she asked. “These decisions are surreal; they affect not the government’s work but citizens’ rights, first and foremost, the right to safety.”

“What trust can a woman who has been gang-raped have in the system if her rapist can’t even be deported?” she added. “I also wonder where the feminists of ‘Non una di meno’ are on these issues.”

The Italian leader also defended her government’s migration policies, including the controversial use of offshore migrant processing centers in Albania.

“I am determined to do what the citizens have asked me to do: a tough policy on irregular immigration, including with new tools like the centers in Albania,” Meloni said.

“Even though some are trying everything they can to prevent it, I am determined on this and am willing to work three times, four times, ten times harder if necessary.”

Remix News provided reporting this week on another Moroccan national accused of raping a 26-year-old woman in Bottanuco in what was a sustained attack over the course of an evening. The suspect was born in 1987 and has accumulated a series of criminal charges and convictions in Italy over more than a decade.

Authorities say he was investigated for drug trafficking between 2014 and 2015 and charged with illegal immigration in 2015. Records also list illegal entry and residence in Trentino in 2016 and theft in 2017.

Court documents further list convictions including resisting a public official and drug trafficking in 2014, as well as participation in sexual assault and gang sexual assault in 2018. A further drug trafficking conviction was recorded in 2025.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 02:00

Humanity Crossed A Threshold, And Most Of Us Scrolled Past It

Humanity Crossed A Threshold, And Most Of Us Scrolled Past It

Authored by Kay Rubacek via The Epoch Times,

Something happened last week that most people scrolled past.

Two Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates were struck during Iran’s retaliation for U.S. military action. Another facility in Bahrain was reportedly damaged after a drone landed nearby. The earlier strikes that triggered the retaliation were said to have used AI-assisted targeting systems.

It was a brief moment in the news cycle, quickly overtaken by the next political story. But the implications are difficult to ignore.

Artificial intelligence has now crossed into active geopolitical conflict.

The infrastructure that powers the digital world—the same systems that store family photos, run businesses, and answer questions on our phones—has become strategic wartime infrastructure. Algorithms woven quietly into civilian technology are now helping guide decisions about where weapons land.

Humanity crossed a threshold, and most of us scrolled past it.

But we know from history that major technological shifts rarely announce themselves with a single dramatic moment. They appear first as signals in small news items, policy disputes, unexplained departures by insiders.

Another signal appeared almost at the same time.

The federal government recently removed the artificial intelligence systems developed by Anthropic from its networks. Shortly afterward, OpenAI stepped in with a defense agreement of its own.

The public does not know the full story behind the change. We do not know exactly what demands were made behind closed doors, what ethical guardrails were contested, or why one of the world’s leading AI companies was suddenly pushed out of federal systems.

But the episode itself is another signal.

And yet another signal has been appearing quietly inside the AI industry itself: the departure of safety researchers.

Over the past several years, numerous high-profile researchers tasked with studying the risks and safety of advanced AI systems have left their posts at leading companies and research labs. Many of these departures have come with little public explanation.

Those researchers rarely describe the internal debates they witnessed. Few are in a position to do so.

But patterns like this matter. When the people closest to a powerful technology begin stepping away quietly, it often means they have seen tensions the public has not yet been invited to examine.

History has seen moments like this before.

In the early 1940s, scientists working on what became the Manhattan Project realized they were building something unprecedented. Some raised concerns about what the technology might mean once it left the laboratory. But those debates happened largely behind closed doors. The public understood the stakes only after the technology had already been used.

Artificial intelligence may be unfolding along a similar pattern. We are seeing the signals now—researchers leaving, governments disputing ethical guardrails, and AI systems appearing inside real geopolitical conflict.

Yet the public conversation about artificial intelligence is still shaped by a set of assumptions that make these signals harder to recognize.

Misconception #1: AI Is ‘Just a Tool’

This analogy is comforting. We imagine AI the way we imagine a calculator or a word processor—machines that perform tasks efficiently while remaining firmly under human control.

Tools can become strategic assets in war. But they do not generate their own outputs in ways their creators sometimes struggle to explain, nor do they require constant negotiation over the ethical boundaries of their behavior.

Modern AI systems are not programmed line by line in the traditional sense. They are trained on vast datasets and learn patterns within that data. Their behavior emerges from statistical relationships rather than explicit instructions. AI researchers describe these systems as “grown,” not built. And that makes them fundamentally different from the tools we are used to controlling.

Misconception #2: AI Is Neutral

AI systems are trained on human-generated information. That information reflects human biases, historical conflicts, and uneven representation.

When an AI system generates an answer, it synthesizes patterns it absorbed from that material.

AI has developed fluent language skills that can create the illusion of objectivity. But confident language is not the same as truth.

The recent disputes between governments and AI companies illustrate this clearly. Debates over surveillance limits or autonomous weapons are not simply technical questions. They are moral ones. Guardrails exist precisely because the systems themselves are not neutral.

Misconception #3: Humans Fully Control AI

Traditional software behaves according to explicit instructions written by programmers.

Modern AI systems operate differently. Their outputs are probabilistic, generated through layers of learned relationships inside the model.

Developers are now using AI systems to build AI systems and to manage other AI systems. They are using AI to write code that in the past they would have written themselves, and it’s happening so fast that they cannot monitor or even understand every line of code being generated by systems that do not sleep.

Control, in this environment, is not a switch. It is more like a moving boundary that no one has ever seen before, and the language to even define it is still in its infancy.

Misconception #4: The Experts Know Where This Is Going

In most scientific fields, experts disagree within a fairly narrow range. In artificial intelligence, the range of opinion is unusually wide.

Some researchers believe AI will revolutionize medicine and scientific discovery. Others warn the technology could produce serious societal disruption if development outruns human wisdom.

Among those raising such concerns is Geoffrey Hinton, a Nobel Prize winner and one of the foundational figures of modern AI research.

That range of opinion does not prove disaster is coming. But it does reveal that even the people building these systems do not fully agree on where they lead.

Artificial intelligence is integrating rapidly into the systems that shape modern life—communication, commerce, national security, and governance.

We are seeing signals across all of these domains. We can see clearly that AI is shaping our future whether we like it or not. The question is whether we will recognize the signals in time to understand what is unfolding, or whether we will wait, as societies often do, until the consequences make the signals impossible to ignore.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 23:05

Suspected Missile Fuel Precursor Materials Sail From China To Iran, Even As US Bombs Fall

Suspected Missile Fuel Precursor Materials Sail From China To Iran, Even As US Bombs Fall

A pair of cargo ships tied to a sanctioned Iranian state shipping line have quietly departed a Chinese chemical hub and are now sailing toward Iran carrying what analysts suspect is missile fuel precursor, according to fresh Washington Post analysis of ship-tracking data and satellite imagery.

The vessels have been identified as Shabdis and Barzin, which operate under Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), the state carrier sanctioned by Washington and many allies. The IRISL has long been accused of shipping materials tied to Iran's ballistic missile program - something which the US and Israel say they are trying to currently eliminate in the ongoing Operation Epic Fury.

via Reuters

Both ships recently docked at Gaolan port in Zhuhai on China’s southeastern coast, a major chemical-handling facility that processes large volumes of industrial compounds, including sodium perchlorate - which is critical for producing solid rocket fuel, the report says.

Officials and and analysts were cited in the Post as concluding the cargo likely includes sodium perchlorate destined for Iran’s missile program.

"Given the track record, the most parsimonious explanation is that they're loading the same commodity they've been shuttling for the past year-plus," Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out.

So in a way this is nothing "new" for Beijing-Tehran 'illicit' trade, however what is new is seen in the following:

While a dozen other IRISL ships have visited the port since the start of the year, experts emphasized that China's allowing a ship to depart for Iran with weapons-related material during a war in which they have called for restraint would be extremely notable.

Indeed, as Kardon continues, "China could have held these vessels at port, imposed an administrative delay, invented a customs hold – any number of bureaucratic tools, but didn't."

Just days before US and Israeli bombs began to fall on Tehran, we featured analysis which questioned, Will China Come To Iran's Rescue? "While China avoids direct confrontation, it has not shied away from visible military cooperation - also as "Earlier this month, Russia, China and Iran deployed naval vessels for joint security exercises in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz," we featured.

Beijing's official position remains that it supports "safeguarding Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity" while opposing "the threat or use of force in international relations." As was also featured:

China is unlikely to dispatch troops or engage directly in any conflict, but to interpret this as passivity would be to misread the nature of 21st-century great power competition. China's support for Iran is real, multifaceted, and in some ways more sustainable than military intervention; it just operates on a different strategic wavelength.

Beijing has meanwhile formally rejected the allegations that it is moving missile-production material to the Islamic Republic, arguing that the United States exaggerates routine commercial or dual-use trade.

And the below is a monitoring report from just weeks before the Trump-ordered campaign on Iran began:

Washington has directed parallel criticism at Russia and China's 'dual-use' trade and cooperation in certain sensitive industrial sectors which overlap with defense. But both also see this as their right, in the end, based on national sovereignty

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 22:40

22 Pounds: The Weight Of A Million Dollars

22 Pounds: The Weight Of A Million Dollars

Via WatchesOfEspionage.com,

Watches as Tools of Money Laundering and Illicit Finance

Luxury timepieces are one of the most effective mediums to move illicit funds around the globe and a tool to integrate those ill-gotten gains into the financial system.  Transnational criminal networks, terrorists, narcotraffickers and corrupt politicians have used watches to launder money as a part of global illicit finance.

The Weight of a Million Dollars – 22 pounds

A million dollars weighs just over 22 lbs.  I learned this during one of my first tours as a CIA Case Officer.  Like any other morning, I mounted my Gary Fisher mountain bike and rode out the gate of our compound for a quick exercise ride in the hills surrounding the African capital where I was working.  This activity was “in pattern,” should I have surveillance, they would note the departure, but it would not warrant further investigation.  A trained eye might have seen that something was different, however. The dead weight of ten thousand $100 bills in my backpack made the bike top-heavy and awkward to ride. 

The operation was simple and routine. After a long Surveillance Detection Route (SDR) through the hills and side streets of the third world capital, I worked my way to a predetermined ops site.  The watch on my wrist would have (probably) been a Timex Ironman, my go to Digital Tool Watch (DTW) for exercise over the past two decades.  I would have checked the time before moving into the site, confirming that I would hit the operational window.  In espionage, timing is everything.

Right on time. I identified a couple in the alley.  We established bona fides with a verbal parole -- a predetermined phrase and response.  I then handed them the heavy backpack in exchange for a similar one and rode off in the other direction, the entire exchange lasting less than a minute. In tradecraft lingo it was a “BE” (Brief Encounter). 

A standard CIA Case Officers EDC, read more HERE

Except for the backpack stuffed with cash, it was a routine day for a case officer. Certainly not the stuff of Hollywood but instead a crucial operation for the global network of intelligence collection. Due to compartmentalization, I didn’t know who the individuals were that I handed the backpack to or why they needed the large sum of cash, though I have my suspicions.  They had likely just arrived in the country and could not bring the cash in through customs without drawing scrutiny.

Watches as a Currency:

One takeaway from this operation is that money is heavy.  It’s inconvenient, bulky and difficult to transport, not to mention having to explain it away if discovered.  This is why many illicit actors, spies and criminal networks rely on expensive but innocuous luxury items to move funds across borders.  Given the significant increase in value of timepieces, watches are a favored currency when it comes to illicit activity.  I easily could have handed off a single watch to transfer that same value to the couple that morning.

The value-to-weight ratio of a Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet or other premium brands is exceeded only by precious gems, making it easy to physically transport a watch across international borders. The vast, unregulated, and fragmented gray market makes converting timepieces into cash relatively easy. Unlike vehicles, gold, and diamonds, there is no oversight or registration for timepieces and a million dollar Patek can be worn on your wrist, easily breezing through customs.

Lebron James wearing a "Tiffany Blue" Patek Philippe Nautilus Ref. 5711, a watch that has sold for 100 times its original price at $5,350,000 at auction. 

Luxury Watches – Money Laundering:

The international financial system is heavily regulated and monitored by law enforcement and intelligence services to identify illicit activity. Transactions over $10,000 are automatically flagged and international border law restricts the amount of cash one can bring in/out of a given country undeclared. 

By contrast, watches are a perfect medium for exploitation by bad actors.  They are innocuous and liquid, and pawn shops, auction houses and high-end dealers often turn a blind eye to these activities. Every major auction house has been involved in a controversy where profitability triumphed over ethics at some point. This isn’t to say that they’re willfully supporting money laundering, rather that it is simply a frequent occurrence.

Eight days after 9/11, CIA officers pick up $3 million cash in three cardboard boxes. This money would enable the Northern Alliance (NA) commanders to pay their troops and convince other tribes to rally to the NA rather than fight them. (Photo Credit: CIA)

Moving Illicit Funds - A Case Study

Imagine, you need to move $1 million from the United States to Turkey.  The logical choice is a traditional bank transfer, which would require you to deposit it in a financial institution.  This would alert the authorities who would request an explanation for how you came about the funds, for both tax purposes and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) enforcement. Carrying cash would require a 20 pound duffel bag, making hand-carrying it cumbersome and again would cause scrutiny from customs officials, resulting in questions and import tariffs and complications. Additionally, you introduce a major security risk by carrying that much cash around and potentially becoming a target. 

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Officer processes a passenger into the United States at an airport. (DHS Photo by James Tourtellotte)

So, what do you do?  You could convert it to diamonds and hide them in a tube of toothpaste (or concealed in your body), but again, if caught, this cannot be explained away.  So, you visit the diamond district in New York, purchase a dozen Rolex and AP watches, each of which could be worth up to $500k per watch.  You use couriers to “smurf” the watches on commercial flights, each one wearing a watch on the wrist and a couple in a carry-on bag.  For the cost of a few round-trip tickets, the watches could be relocated to Istanbul relatively risk-free. 

A single (new) Rolex Dayton can have a street value of $30-$50k, vintage significant higher (James Rupley)

Once you arrive in Turkey, you find the local watch dealer and offer to sell for cash, or a bank transfer to integrate them into the financial system, the first step of money laundering (placement, layering, integration).  Given the illicit activity, you may lose some money on the sale, but this is simply the cost of integrating illicit funds.  The dealer is happy to purchase them below market value and not ask questions.

Well over $100k in Rolex Watches (Photo Credit: Jame Rupley)

Hezbollah’s Illicit Finance:

In 2015, an investigation by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) revealed that Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia terrorist organization, purchased large quantities of watches in Europe, which were then transported by couriers to Lebanon where they were sold for cash.  Hezbollah reportedly purchased €14 million in watches from a single store in Germany, thus evading international monitoring.  (The movement and exchange of expensive goods has long played a role in informal Middle Eastern “Hawala” money transfer networks throughout the globe.)

This practice is so common that Dutch law enforcement has urged watch dealers to refrain from cash transactions.  Several high profile arrests of criminal networks in Spain, Netherlands, Romania and Belgium revealed luxury watches as integral to the movement of illegal funds, and closely associated with the recent increase in watch crime in the region.

Money Laundering:

The 3 Stages of Money Laundering (Image Credit: Alessa)

Money Laundering (ML) is the act of integrating illegally acquired cash to legitimate financial institutions with the goal of concealing the illegal origins of those funds.  While this is traditionally associated with criminal networks, in the intelligence world, cash is king and most intelligence services practice some form of benevolent money laundering.  Watches can play a crucial part in each step of the money laundering process.

  • Placement: Step one is introducing illicit gains into the financial system.  In the example above, this can occur with the sale of the watch and the depositing of those funds into a bank account by the purchasing party.  At initial scrutiny, this will appear to be a legitimate transaction.

Breaking Bad- money laundering (AMC)

  • Layering:  Step two is the process of moving those same funds through multiple transactions to conceal the origin of the funds.  Once funds are converted, one could use the illicit funds to purchase watches, and then resell them in a manner to distance the original transaction and repeat this process.  The example above of transferring watches overseas could be another example of layering in addition to potential placement. 
  • Integration:  The final last step is returning the funds to the criminal organizations for personal use, thus appearing legitimate. 

Embezzlement and Money Laundering- Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro 

According to press reporting, in 2022, Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro found himself in hot water for (reportedly) selling a gifted Saudi Rolex and a Patek Philippe watch, netting him $68k.  Bolsonaro used a third party (smurf) to transport the watches to the United States and quickly found a buyer in a relatively obscure Pennsylvania mall.

If true, Bolsonaro used the same technique as above to transfer the value from Brazil, convert it into dollars and then (supposedly) repatriate that cash to Brazil.  This is an example of Money Laundering by disguising an unreported diplomatic gift and converting that gift into a usable currency.

This is not the first scrutiny of Bolsonaro's gifts from foreign governments, in 2021, a Brazilian government official was reportedly detained at the border with more than $3 million in jewels from Saudi Arabia in a backpack, allegedly gifts for Bolsonaro and his wife.  

The world is not all flowers and rainbows and we expect to continue to see the use of luxury timepieces in the global illicit finance network, particularly as prices for these luxury goods remain high.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 22:15

With World Seemingly At War, DARPA Finds Time To Unveil The X-76

With World Seemingly At War, DARPA Finds Time To Unveil The X-76

Before Operation Epic Fury began, corporate media published a few very concerning headlines:

Fast forward to Monday afternoon: Operation Epic Fury against Iran has entered its 10th day. Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, warned investors on the GS Weekend Macro Call that regional spillover risks worldwide were among his top concerns.

Latest headlines in the Middle East:

The focus of this note is not the energy market or global spillover risks. Rather, it is the fact that DARPA found time to publish a press release about an experimental aircraft with a historic lineage of X-planes.

DARPA said the new aircraft, called the X-76 and being built by Bell Textron, is designed to solve one of military aviation’s biggest trade-offs: combining airplane-like speed with helicopter-like runway independence.

The program, run jointly with U.S. Special Operations Command, aims to produce an aircraft that can cruise above 400 knots, hover in austere environments, and operate from unprepared surfaces.

DARPA said the X-76 has passed the Critical Design Review, and the program is moving into manufacturing, integration, assembly, and ground testing.

"For too long, the runway has been both an enabler and a tether, granting speed but creating a critical vulnerability," said Cmdr. Ian Higgins, U.S. Navy, serving as the DARPA SPRINT program manager. "With SPRINT, we're not just building an X-plane; we're building options. We're working to deliver the option of surprise, the option of rapid reinforcement, and the option of life-saving speed, anywhere on the globe, without needing any runway."

It seems like DARPA found a sweet spot to debut the X-76, given the world seemingly at war. This likely means more war funding from taxpayers and, most likely, tailwinds for defense companies to push new products.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 21:50

"Legacy Of Imbeciles": Corpus Christi Careens Toward Water-Shortage Catastrophe

"Legacy Of Imbeciles": Corpus Christi Careens Toward Water-Shortage Catastrophe

Submitted by Dylan Baddour via Inside Climate News (emphasis ours),

The imminent depletion of water supplies in Corpus Christi threatens to cut off the flow of jet fuel to Texas airports and other oil exports from one of the nation’s largest petroleum ports, triggering potential shockwaves through energy markets in Texas and beyond.

Without significant rainfall, Corpus Christi is headed for a “water emergency” within months and total depletion of the system next year, according to the city’s website.

“The impacts are going to be felt tremendously through the state, if not internationally,” said Sean Strawbridge, former CEO of the Port of Corpus Christi Authority, the nation’s top port for crude oil exports, in a 40-minute interview Thursday. “This should be no surprise to anybody. We were talking about this over a decade ago.”

Other current and former officials, alarmed at what they call a lack of preparations, have suggested the potential for an economic crisis involving mass layoffs, disruption of fuel supplies and billions of dollars in emergency spending to avoid an evacuation of the city. 

Strawbridge, who now lives in Houston, laid the blame on city leaders, citing “their lack of experience, their lack of knowledge, their lack of recognizing the risks” in a bumbling, decade-long endeavor to build a large seawater desalination plant that would veer the region off its clear course towards calamity.

They’ve found themselves in quite a dire predicament as a result of those poor decisions," Strawbridge said. “Time is up.” 

A spokesperson for Corpus Christi Mayor Paulette Guajardo declined interview requests, citing “prior commitments,” and did not respond to follow-up questions. City manager Peter Zanoni also did not respond to questions. Instead, Corpus Christi public information manager Robert Gonzales provided an emailed statement.

The water shortage in the Coastal Bend is the result of a historic five-year drought,” it said. “Currently, the City of Corpus Christi has $1 billion in City Council-approved and funded water projects underway to address our water needs. The City remains committed to ensuring water security for the more than 500,000 residents and our commercial and industrial customers.”

Depletion of this region’s reservoirs would lead to “controlled depression” for the local economy, “mass unemployment” and “industrial total shutdown,” according to a two-page report by Don Roach, former assistant general manager of the San Patricio Municipal Water District, which supplies many of the region’s large industrial water users.

That includes refineries operated by Flint Hills Resources, Valero and Citgo that provide jet fuel to Texas airports and meet much of the state’s daily demand for gasoline.

“This waiting disaster is under the radar for the rest of the state,” said Roach, who worked 20 years at the water district and retired in 2014. “We hear nothing from the Texas politicians about the seriousness of the situation or any state plan to mitigate it.”

He no longer had access to current water data and contracts, he stressed, but produced the report based on his own knowledge. It said the costs of trucking in emergency water “would bankrupt many local small businesses and low-income households” while state emergency managers would need billions of dollars to “build emergency temporary pipelines or subsidize desalination barge rentals to prevent a total evacuation of the city.”

Strawbridge, a former director of the Port of Long Beach, said Roach’s assessment was “spot on.”

“No Time to Panic”

Zanoni, the city manager who has overseen Corpus Christi’s descent toward water depletion since 2019 and receives a $400,000 salary, rejected notions of imminent disaster during a press conference Thursday, when Lake Corpus Christi,  one of the city’s main reservoirs, dropped below 10 percent.  The press conference took place three days after Inside Climate News asked the city for comment about the impending water crisis.

“I think we are going to get through this,” he told TV cameras as he stood before the dwindling remnants of the lake. “We have confidence in what we’re doing. This is no time to panic.”

Zanoni, who holds a master’s of public administration from Florida State University, said the city had “worked tirelessly over the past months to bring everything that we humanly and possibly could to forego what could be this supply and demand issue.”

“Now we’re going to focus, with the City Council and the region, on being prepared in case supply doesn’t meet demand,” he said. 

The best-case scenario, that assumes some level of rain, has this lake here going to about the early fall,” said Zanoni, who indicated that the summer months would give the city enough time to boot up its portfolio of new groundwater water projects..” 

James Dodson, a former director of Corpus Christi’s water department who retired this year as a private consultant and was involved in several of those projects, disagreed. He said residents and officials “are crazy not to be panicking.”

It’s the very worst scenario that I’ve ever seen,” said Dodson, who oversaw a historic expansion of Corpus Christi’s water supply in the 1990s. “It’s going to be an economic disaster.”

For years, he said, the city dismissed repeated opportunities to develop groundwater import projects as it maintained a singular and fruitless focus on desalination. That includes projects that the city only recently scrambled to get started. Dodson doubted any will materialize in time.

They’ve been kicking the can down the road for a long time and they’ve finally run out of road,” said a current regional water official who requested anonymity to preserve a working relationship with the city. "They’re looking at projects to do that they should have done five, six, seven years ago."

The last hope to avert disaster, the official said, was a 20- to 30-inch rainfall. 

“It would basically have to be a hurricane,” he said.

A spokesperson for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Andrew Mahaleris, didn’t address specific comments about an impending water catastrophe or disruption of the state economy. In an emailed statement, he said: “Corpus Christi is an important economic driver not only for Texas but also the nation. The State of Texas has made significant investments into ensuring the Corpus Christi area has the water resources it needs to serve citizens and industry alike.”

He added that the governor “will continue working with the legislature to ensure Texans have a safe, reliable water supply for the next fifty years.”

“I Wouldn’t Say That It’s a Disaster”

Mere months remain, according to Corpus Christi’s online water dashboard, until the city enters a “Level 1 Emergency,” which begins 180 days from projected depletion of water supplies. Functional failure of the water system, or “dead pool,” will occur before total depletion. 

In a level one water emergency, the city’s plans call for an immediate 25 percent curtailment of water consumption. But city planners are only beginning to discuss what that would even look like and still haven’t determined how they would implement it.

“We can’t close and open everyone’s valves,” said Nick Winkelmann, chief operating officer of Corpus Christi Water, in an interview at City Hall last week. “One way to enact water restrictions is through pricing.”

The region’s largest industrial users, which collectively consume the majority of the region’s water, remain exempt from emergency curtailment. These multi-billion-dollar refineries, petrochemical plants and liquified natural gas facilities are built to run at a steady rate and can’t simply throttle down production in accordance with water availability. They consume large volumes of water primarily in cooling towers to prevent excessive heating and explosions. 

The city also may enact across-the-board, pro-rata curtailment at will, said Winkelmann, who assumed his role last September when the city’s former water director, Drew Molly, resigned days before the City Council pulled the plug on its long-running desalination project. “That will have an effect on all our customers.” 

For years, local business leaders insisted desalination was Corpus Christi’s key to overcoming the water limitations that had historically plagued it on this semi-arid coastline. Massive desalination plants, the first of their kind in Texas, were supposed to kick off an era of abundant water, financial prosperity and limitless economic expansion.

Instead, the plan drove this region to the precipice of ruin.  

“It has not gone as smoothly as it should have,” said Bob Paulison, a member of the Texas Chemistry Council, director of the Coastal Bend Industries Association and architect of the desalination project. “There are a lot of reasons for why that happened.”

He said he worked on desalination for 12 years, but the projects got bogged down by political fights, administrative processes, the COVID pandemic and “a tug of war which has resulted in very slow progress.”

“I wouldn’t say that it’s a disaster,” he said of the current situation, expressing faith that the city would complete new water projects before supplies run out. It was “too early” to assess when that could happen, he said. 

Presented with Roach’s report, Paulison expressed a longstanding respect for the veteran water manager and said, “It looks like it’s very dire, more dire than we’ve been looking at.”

“We’re relying on the model that the city has put together,” Paulison said. 

Regarding a potential shutdown of the entire refining and petrochemical complex, he said, “that could certainly shut down at some point, but we don’t see that happening in the early stages.”

Asked about plans to develop alternative jet fuel supplies for Texas airports in the case of a shutdown, Paulison said, “I’m sure that someone somewhere is working on that.”

Charles McConnell, a former assistant energy secretary with the Obama administration, wondered why concrete plans hadn’t been prepared. 

“Did it take them all the way to yesterday to figure out they’re going to run out by the end of the year?” he said. “That’s pretty pathetic.”

McConnell, who now teaches at the University of Houston, doubted that a shutdown of Corpus Christi’s industrial sector would have acute or long-lasting impacts beyond Texas. New producers would fill the gap, while new pipelines and supply chains would bypass the city. 

It’s a surprise to me that none of those refineries and industries down there have their own desal plants,” said McConnell, who worked 31 years for the chemical manufacturer Praxair in Houston. “They’re using municipal water, for Christ’s sake!”

Rapid Expansion Followed the Shale Boom

The roots of this situation stretch back more than a decade, to the period of rapid downstream industrial expansion that followed the shale revolution in the oilfields of Texas. Strawbridge joined the Port of Corpus Christi Authority in 2015, as a surge of major industrial projects sought to build in the area. Even then, Strawbridge said, everyone knew Corpus Christi needed more water. 

In January 2016, Abbott traveled to Israel, where he toured the world’s largest seawater desalination plant and met with Israeli officials to discuss desalination.

Later that year, an industry group called H2O4Texas, with sponsors including Dow, Chevron and Marathon Oil, hosted an event in Corpus Christi.

“They were basically saying because of the growth in the Coastal Bend, we were gonna need desalination,” said Isabel Araiza, then a professor at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, who attended the event. 

That was the first that Araiza, a Corpus Christi native with a Ph.D. from Boston University, had heard of desalination. She said she was at the meeting for a different reason, finding it strange how many business and political leaders were there. 

The oil and gas industry wanted to build enormous projects in the region, processing oil and gas from Texas’ shale fields into myriad fuels, chemicals and plastics before loading them onto tankers for export. 

In March 2017, then-city manager Margie Rose sent a letter to ExxonMobil, the world’s largest private oil company, that said, “because the City aggressively protects water resources for the future by implementing a matrix of supply strategies, we feel that we have sufficient water supplies to meet your needs.” 

Six days later, the city requested funding from the Texas Water Development Board to study the feasibility and do preliminary design of a seawater desalination plant. 

Around that time, Strawbridge said, “it became very clear to the port authority that there was a difference of opinions as to how much water was available and how much would be needed to continue to attract large industrial investors.” 

“The city felt that it had enough water to last, based on its forecast, until 2040,” Strawbridge said. “We, the port authority, had a very different view of what that demand curve looked like.”

That’s when the port began developing plans for its own desalination plant, he said.

In 2018, a new, interim city manager, Keith Selman, promised another large volume of water to Steel Dynamics, which then built a steel mill in the area. 

The Emerging Solution: Four Desalination Plants

That same year, Corpus Christi created a program exempting the region’s largest industrial water users from water curtailment restrictions during drought for a fee of $0.25 per 1,000 gallons. The city said it would use the money to fund the development of a new water source. The city’s water reservoirs were two thirds full at the time. 

In 2019, the city’s staff presented the City Council with a plan to build a seawater desalination facility. Exxon had taken up the city’s offer for water and planned to build a massive plastics plant called Gulf Coast Growth Ventures in partnership with Saudi Arabia’s national oil company. It would be the largest water user in the region, consuming as much as all city residents combined. 

“Large increases in water demand are projected to occur in 2022,” said a presentation authored by Paulison and given to the City Council by then-Assistant City Manager Mark Van Vleck. “To meet expected water demand, we need to move forward with the procurement of a seawater desalination plant now.”

The plant would produce 10 million gallons per day, cost $140 million and take two years to build, the presentation said. It needed to begin supplying water by the start of 2023. The City Council voted unanimously to move forward.

By 2020 the size of the proposed plant had doubled. “We were recognizing that we’re going to need more water,” said Ronald Barrera, a city council member who has served since 2018. “If we want to expand our economy, then we have to recognize that's the way to go.”

As the scale of the situation came into focus, the city proposed a second desalination plant, and the port also proposed two. 

Sounding the Alarm

That’s when Encarnacion Serna, a retired chemical plant operations manager, found out about plans for one of those plants just up the shore from his waterfront home on Corpus Christi Bay. 

Serna, an engineer who had worked on reverse osmosis water systems for Valero and Occidental Chemical, reviewed the project’s application. What he saw, he said, astounded him: flimsy assumptions, unrealistic estimates and missing information. 

A facility of that scale, he knew, would require railcars full of pretreatment chemicals, create a mountain of sludge waste every day and consume a tremendous amount of electricity. But he didn’t see serious plans for any of that, he said.  

He dug deeper into the desalination boom and quickly saw what was going on: Politicians and businessmen had oversold their water supply, he said, and were scrambling for more as shortages approached. But none of them had any idea what they were doing, Serna remembered thinking as he reviewed the applications.   

I’ve been trying since 2020 to let them know how catastrophic this is going to be,” he said in an interview at his home. “They’ve acted with a profound ignorance.”

Serna, a father of four who worked his whole life at chemical plants in Texas, didn’t think any of the proposals would produce as much freshwater as projected, come online as quickly as expected or cost as little as any of the applications stated. These were not going to solve the crisis that officials had teed up, he believed. 

In calls, emails and public comments to city and port officials, Serna raised the alarm at what he saw unfolding. He felt brushed off and soon stopped receiving responses. 

Serna knew that chemical plants and refineries can’t just throttle down water consumption at will. The multi-billion-dollar facilities are meant to operate consistently at a steady state with a set inflow of water. Changing that balance raised risks of explosions. The whole region was skidding toward catastrophe, Serna thought at the time, with no realistic solution in sight. 

In 2022, Gulf Coast Growth Ventures, the Exxon-Saudi partnership, began to draw water while the desalination facility meant to supply it still didn’t even exist on paper. 

Strawbridge, then CEO of the Port of Corpus Christi Authority, insisted a private desalination operator should build and run a large facility that could sell its water to the city. But the city wanted to operate its own. Strawbridge considered the location of the city’s project unsuitable. Both sides said the other took steps to undermine the project.

Meanwhile, veteran local scientists rejected environmental studies from developers claiming the massive discharge of brine from the plants wouldn’t turn the coastal bays and estuaries into hypersaline wastelands.

“I’ve read the engineering studies,” said Paul Montagna, an endowed chair at the Harte Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M University in Corpus Christi, in a 2022 interview with Inside Climate News. “And I just don’t get it.”

Environmentalists organized against the plants. Araiza, the college professor who attended the first desalination meeting, had become a leader among groups that were fighting desalination as a means to resist the onslaught of petrochemical projects in their area, which they saw as wealthy, outside interests swooping in to hijack their resources, institutions and environment. 

“They really thought it was just going to be a yes,” she said from her office at Del Mar College, beneath a poster of Che Guevara. “I think we helped slow things down.”

Barrera, the City Council member, started to feel uneasy as controversy and constant turnover on the council seemed to leave them unable to push the project forward.

“I've been accused of being a fearmonger,” he said in an interview at his office in downtown Corpus Christi. “Now everybody's scared.”

It All Falls Apart

Strawbridge took an entourage of about 30 Texas lawmakers, businessmen and lobbyists to Israel in November 2022 to visit desalination facilities “to see that it is possible to solve for our water issues,” he said. 

Strawbridge encouraged the lawmakers to support the port’s development of a private desalination plant, which he said was urgently needed to cover for the failures of the city. But he drew public outrage from city officials when he applied for state funding for a facility that struck them as a competitor to theirs. 

Strawbridge said the trip to Israel ultimately led the Texas lawmakers to pass legislation in 2023 that created the state’s $1 billion water fund. 

But the trip, not disclosed to the public at the time, ultimately ignited a scandal that led to Strawbridge’s resignation when an investigation by KRIS 6 revealed that the Port, which is not a taxing entity, spent more than $200,000 taking the crew to Israel. The station described “a pattern of lavish spending” on that trip and in prior port activities. 

Strawbridge earned $750,000 in the prior year and had expensed an average of $10,000 per month on food and alcohol, including parties. One day later, Strawbridge resigned, but maintained that all expenses were incurred properly through his work representing the Port.

In an interview, he characterized the report and scandal as “a hit job” by political opponents and “an effort to hasten my departure from the Port.” 

“They used the expenses from the Israel trip as a basis for smearing my good name, although the trip ultimately proved fortuitous for the state and its water funding,” Strawbridge said. “Ultimately an independent audit of the previous five years of my expenses found absolutely no irregularities or departures from policy. But of course that wasn’t covered by KRIS 6.”

That year, 2023, was the hottest on record in Texas. Water levels in Corpus Christi reservoirs continued to plummet as the drought intensified. Desalination had moved to the center of Corpus Christi’s public conversation. Local politicians spoke for or against it while activists flocked to city council meetings and permit hearings.

“Blessed be the environmentalists,” said Serna, the retired engineer. “But 90 percent of them don't know what the hell they're talking about.” 

In January 2024, Corpus Christi City Council produced a new cost estimate for its proposed desalination plant of about $550 million to produce 30 million gallons of freshwater per day. 

“These numbers are ridiculously low, fraudulent and deceitful,” wrote Serna in an email to city officials. 

By that time, Serna was angry. The subject line of his email read: “The Legacy of the Imbeciles.” 

Where was the city even getting this cost estimate from, he asked, if it “does not have engineering and construction drawings.”

All the city has at this time are deficits and bills incurred by lunatics in the millions of dollars already spent in the pursuit of this Scam project with nothing tangible on hand yet,” Serna wrote. 

Later that year, a new cost estimate put the project at nearly $760 million. Another estimate, in July 2025, said $1.2 billion. 

Two months later, Corpus Christi City Council, dominated by newly elected members and unable to stomach the cost, voted to cancel the project after a rancorous, 12-hour public meeting that broke repeatedly into yelling from the audience. By then, the Port of Corpus Christi Authority also handed off one of its desalination projects to the nearby Nueces River Authority and mothballed another.

Corpus Christi city leaders expressed optimism over plans to quickly pipe in groundwater from the Evangeline Aquifer about 20 miles away. But when users of that water, like the small city of Sinton, requested in February 2026 that an administrative law judge review Corpus Christi’s groundwater permits, hope faded for a timely solution, other than hurricane-scale rainfall.  

Let the shit hit the fan,” said Serna. “Let dog eat dog.”

What does he think will happen to Corpus Christi? In time, he said, the refineries and chemical plants will probably build their own water projects, somehow, and possibly restart their facilities that they will have to mothball in the meantime.  

For residents, he said, life might be like it used to be for him, 70 years ago, as a boy in the Rio Grande Valley, when he would hang plastic jugs on mesquite branches and carry them on his shoulder to ask nearby companies for water. 

“This is the legacy of the imbeciles,” he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 21:25

Five Iran Women Soccer Players Defect In Australia, Trump Urges Immediate Asylum 

Five Iran Women Soccer Players Defect In Australia, Trump Urges Immediate Asylum 

The ongoing Iran war is a rare modern conflict where warring powers can in an unprecedented manner (generally-speaking in terms of the modern age) address each other directly over social media. For example Iranian top official accounts are busy trying to troll Washington in defiance, even as the US bombs fall. "9 days into Operation Epic Mistake, oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing. We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites in hopes of containing huge inflationary shock. Iran is fully prepared. And we, too, have many surprises in store," Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X Monday.

But President Trump on the same day had his own card to play, highlighting the plight of the Iranian National Women's Soccer team, which appears stuck in increasingly sensitive and possibly dangerous situation after playing in Australia. Trump wrote: "Australia is making a terrible humanitarian mistake by allowing the Iran National Woman's Soccer team to be forced back to Iran, where they will most likely be killed. Don’t do it, Mr. Prime Minister, give ASYLUM. The U.S. will take them if you won't."

Source: Getty Images

Stretching back days, and weeks - even before the start of Operation Epic Fury - there were conflicting reports over the team's response during the singing of the national anthem. There are widespread headlines they have been refusing to sing the national anthem, resulting in threats from Tehran officials.

At this point it remains anything but clear whether the entire team is requesting asylum, or whether just several individuals are. Australian broadcast reports say at least five are in hiding:

Five female soccer players who it was feared would face persecution when they returned to Iran have left their accommodation in the Gold Coast and plan to seek asylum in Australia, multiple sources have told the ABC. 

Fatemeh Pasandideh, Zahra Ghanbari, Zahra Sarbali, Atefeh Ramazanzadeh, and Mona Hamoudi, who all play for the Iran women’s national football team, refused to sing the national anthem before their opening match with South Korea at the Women's Asian Cup earlier this month.

Fears had been growing they would be targeted by the Iranian regime upon their return, after they were labelled "traitors" on Iranian state TV

Now, a family member of one of the athletes, who we have agreed not to name, and activists within the Iranian Australian community have told the ABC the players have evaded the team's handlers and are being protected by police in Queensland

Trump says PM Albanese is "on it"....

The NY Times and others have since reported that an Australian government representative is in contact with the five, and has briefed them on their options. The pressure on the ladies grows, at a moment their homeland - and possibly their own family members - are under US-Israeli bombs.

Some intense public scenes have played out after the team lost its last group match at the Women's Asian Cup on Sunday. "Just 24 hours earlier, Australian protesters laid siege to a tour bus transporting Iranian female soccer players," one foremost Australian broadcaster reported.

Many among the crowd that rushed the bus carried pre-Islamic revolution Iran flags, and are apparently pro-monarchy Iranians which make up part of the diaspora. 

Some of the chaotic scenes, which have been seized upon by Pro-Pahlavi oppositionists...

While it's becoming clear the team could face threats from there own government at home - if not also the pressing threat of US-Israeli bombs from the sky, Al Jazeera has made clear that at least some of them want to urgently be reunited with their families at home:

While the players have not publicly aired any concerns for their own safety, they have spoken about the difficulty of playing in a tournament thousands of kilometers away from home while being “fully disconnected” from their families during the US-Israeli attacks.

Their head coach, Marziyeh Jafari, has been quoted as saying by Australian media that the players want to return to Iran “as soon as we can”.

“I want to be with my country and home. … We are eager to come back,” the Australian Associated Press quoted Jafari as saying in a postmatch news conference.

Without doubt, the international media spotlight looks to make their plight and decision-making even more difficult - again, also as people in Tehran take notice:

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting presenter Mohammad Reza Shahbazi said in a video that the players showed a lack of patriotism and their actions amounted to the “pinnacle of dishonour” in footage that circulated widely on social media.

Shahbazi then stressed what is likely the prevailing Iranian government view at this moment: "Let me just say one thing: Traitors during wartime must be dealt with more severely."

These and other comments have caused opposition voices to warn that the Woman's Soccer Team might not only face scrutiny, investigation, and harassment upon returning home - but possibly even death, should they be deemed 'traitors'. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 21:00

FBI Obtains Election Records From Arizona Senate

FBI Obtains Election Records From Arizona Senate

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times,

The FBI has collected a large volume of Arizona election records from the state’s Senate as part of a grand jury investigation. The subpoena indicates a broader scope of the investigation into irregularities in the 2020 election.

The records pertain to the Arizona State Senate’s 2020 audit of Maricopa County, according to a March 9 X post by the Senate’s president, Warren Petersen. The county, where nearly two-thirds of Arizonans live, has been at the center of multiple controversies, including unsuccessful litigation by multiple Republican campaigns.

The subpoena, first reported by Just the News, was confirmed to The Epoch Times by a source familiar with the investigation. The large volume of electronic data includes ballots and voter records, according to the source.

The grand jury probe may indicate a wider investigation. In January, the FBI raided election offices of Fulton County, Georgia, which covers the broader Atlanta area, as part of a criminal investigation into potential violations of federal law. Concerned citizens have discovered a plethora of problems with the county’s 2020 election. Even if the issues didn’t affect the election’s outcome, they may still amount to criminal violations, said the search warrant’s affidavit, released last month.

The problems included chain of custody failures and duplicate ballot images, as well as incorrectly reported recount results.

The Trump administration has been moving aggressively to probe election law compliance.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) is suing at least 29 states for voter records that contain non-public information, particularly driver’s license numbers or last four digits of the social security number. The DOJ stated it has lawful authority to review the records to check for compliance with federal election laws. States, mostly those run by Democrats, have argued various state laws and privacy concerns prevent them from sharing the data.

President Donald Trump has maintained that in 2020, election victory was stolen from him. His lawyers vigorously and unsuccessfully challenged the results. Since then, Republican states have significantly tightened election rules while the Democratic ones have generally moved in the opposite direction.

Trump is also pushing a sweeping election reform bill, the SAVE America Act, which would require voters to present proof of citizenship, such as a passport or a birth certificate, to register to vote. The GOP-controlled House passed the bill last month. But Senate Republicans only have 53 votes, seven short of overcoming the filibuster. They remain divided on whether to abolish the rule.

Democrats have called the bill an attempt at voter suppression.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/09/2026 - 20:35

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