Zero Hedge

Property Tax & The Death Of The American Dream

Property Tax & The Death Of The American Dream

Via SchiffGold.com,

While the primary catalyst for the original English pilgrims to venture to America was religious freedom, a strong desire for independence followed closely behind. They desired to be independent of two things: poverty and government meddling. This spirit carried into the American Revolution and informed domestic policy for many years. The Homestead Act of (FIND YEAR) was enacted to allow citizens a type of independence those who first fled Britain could only dream of. Remote settlers earned their own homes by proving their merit to Mother Nature. It was fairly easy to live as one wished without violating rules and regulations. The law was a fairly small framework that attempted to allow lives free from violence and evil. The two curses they fled were now powerfully refuted. The poverty caused by government oppression of the past was replaced by success or failure based upon individual action. 

While poverty enabled and created by tyranny guided pilgrims to leave, it was no easy road in the new land. Settlers often dealt with great hunger and lack because they knew it was better than the guaranteed squalor they would have faced in Europe. Americans had to bet on their futures using their competence and capabilities. They received the fruits of their labor and often lived far better than they could have before. The American government was in place to protect their ability to live a private life in which they received the benefits of their labor.

The whole American vision was built upon delayed gratification. There was no guarantee that a homesteader’s crops would thrive in any given year. Individuals who were less competent were forced to settle for a life that, while far better than before they emigrated, was below the standard of other more competent settlers. Homesteaders who wanted to fill their stomachs in winter would find they had no seed to plant in the spring. Months and years of hardship were endured to secure ownership and the ability to rest.

The government’s primary role was to protect people against anyone who desired to intrude on their hard-earned peace, whether foreign nations or malicious citizens. People worked for security and the ability to give their children security. Land was a constant investment that directly reflected its developer’s work ethic and rewarded their competency. Unlike in Europe, land was very accessible to the common man. Rather than working for lords and barons, land distinguished Americans and allowed them to work for themselves.

At the beginning of the 19th century, property taxes were small, primarily by the acre, and did not rise often. As administrative bloat and government corruption grew, property taxes gradually grew and morphed into something powerful and harmful to the core of the American dream. Property taxes became not just on the acre, but also on the valuation of the property. In some states, this tax is higher than 2% yearly. A 500,000$ house, a great deal in many locations, would force the owner to pay over 10,000$ yearly just to live on the land that they own. In complete opposition to the vision of the past, inflation and increasingly high valuations mean that as time goes on, landowners will be forced to work more just to make ends meet.

If a family worked hard to make a life on a humble piece of land and became surrounded by a luxury housing development, the resulting higher valuation would drive them to live somewhere else. This incentive to move shifts Americans towards a consumer culture rather than a culture of creation. There is less reason to put effort into any piece of land or community if an indeterminate amount of “rent” must be paid every year. That “rent” used to be primarily the sweat of the brows of the owners of that land as they worked tirelessly to cultivate it.

That vision has been replaced and land seems more like a luxury for the ultra-wealthy than any meaningful part of the American identity. Even small bits of land are not often loved and held for long. Moving constantly has become a favorite pastime of many families as they cannot seem to escape high taxes and inflation. Families continually downsizing or moving to other states cannot be sustainable as a national strategy. We must either make urban living far more appealing or face many families forced to choose between unappealing apartments or paying through the nose for ever-smaller houses. Property taxes exacerbate the attack on the root of American identity.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 21:00

Biden Halts 'Trump Is Hitler' Ads After Assassination Attempt

Biden Halts 'Trump Is Hitler' Ads After Assassination Attempt

Authored by Luis Carnelio via HeadlineUSA.com,

The scandal-plagued Biden campaign has pulled all its ads against former President Donald Trump after he was nearly killed by a shooter on Saturday. 

Joe Biden is “pausing all outbound communications and working to pull down our television ads as quickly as possible,” a campaign official told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday morning. 

The ads would have likely labeled Trump as an existential threat ahead of the 2024 election. 

Biden’s anti-Trump claims have rightfully led critics to question whether this heavily partisan rhetoric has incited violence against Trump.

This rhetoric often conflates Trump with dictators, including Adolf Hitler, and suggests he would end “Democracy” if elected. 

Just on Friday, Biden appeared at a campaign rally in Michigan, where he labeled Trump a “threat to this nation.” 

Several conservatives quickly called out the past anti-Trump rhetoric that could have fueled violence against the former president. 

Cartoonist Scott Adams on Twitter wrote, “The Biden campaign is pausing its ad campaign that was obviously designed to get Trump assassinated.  The Fine People Hoax probably just killed one spectator, injured another, and almost ended Trump. This is all on Biden."

Kyle Mann, the Babylon Bee’s editor-in-chief, added, “When you call your political opponent Hitler for 4 years, don’t act surprised when you inspire your followers to try to kill him.” 

Outkick founder Clay Travis echoed Mann’s remarks, writing, “I am f**king furious beyond words. F**k every left wing media member who has been calling him Hitler for the past eight years. This is on them. They made this happen.” Travis’s post has reached nearly 5 million views.

Director James Wood wrote, “We were two inches away from a civil war today. It is not a prospect I relish, but one that is to be feared if Democrats don’t stop with their absurd vile Hitler analogies and their assassination glee.” 

Comedian and host Dave Smith similar said, “How the f**k can you say he’s literally Hitler and Democracy is on the line but we wish him a speedy recovery and political violence is never acceptable?”

The Daily Wire posted a video compilation of several legacy media outlets comparing Trump to Hitler.

Other critics were equally vocal in their responses.

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 18:40

Spot The Odd One Out

Spot The Odd One Out

The COVID-19 pandemic erased nearly two decades of life expectancy gains in America. Meanwhile, U.S. health spending per capita is at the highest level in the world.

In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualizes life expectancy and per capita healthcare costs across several wealthy nations.

Figures were compiled by Peterson-KFF, and are as of 2022.

America Spends a Lot on Healthcare, For Little Gain

As Peterson–KFF bluntly notes, “the U.S. has the lowest life expectancy amongst large, wealthy countries” while their per capita healthcare cost has moved past $12,500 as of 2022

In fact the U.S. is an outlier for both healthcare costs (+$4,600 from next-highest Germany), and in life expectancy (-3.2 years from Germany).

Note: Health spend is measured in PPP-adjusted 2022 U.S. dollars.

From the 12 developed countries in the analysis, the average healthcare per capita cost is at $6,700 with a life expectancy of 82.2 years. Americans spend nearly double the amount while living 5 years less on average. Peterson-KFF also notes that in 1980, the U.S. had similar health spends and life expectancies as all its peers. Trends have since diverged.

Of course, both health care spending and life expectancies are influenced by a variety of socioeconomic factors. For example, the UK has the lowest costs ($5,500) amongst its European peers in the group, thanks in part to its National Health Service.

At the same time, Japan has one of the highest life expectancies in the world (84 years) while its per capita health costs come in at $5,300. Their low red meat intake and high fish consumption are partially credited with maintaining good health in the population.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 18:05

Middle East Reacts To A 'Destabilized' America

Middle East Reacts To A 'Destabilized' America

Via Middle East Eye

The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on Saturday has provoked an outpouring of condemnation, even from opponents of the Republican frontrunner. In the Middle East, national leaders largely joined in. 

"I followed up the treacherous attack on former president and presidential nominee Donald Trump with concern, and I reiterate Egypt's condemnation of the incident," wrote Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on his Facebook page. He expressed hope for the "completion of the American election campaigns in a peaceful and healthy atmosphere, free of any manifestations of terrorism, violence, or hatred".

Via AP

The attack was also condemned by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said he hoped those behind it would be brought to justice "in order not to cast a shadow on the US elections and global stability", while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he and his wife would pray for Trump's "safety and speedy recovery".

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who has not enjoyed cordial relations with Trump in past, also condemned the attempted assassination, saying in a statement that he "reaffirm[s] the positions of the State of Palestine, which has always rejected violence, terrorism, and extremism, regardless of its source".

Not everyone, however, was so supportive or magnanimous. The Telegram and X accounts for Sabereen News, an outlet affiliated with the Iran-backed "resistance" groups in Iraq, on Sunday posted a picture of a bleeding Trump with the caption: "Today terror has entered their fortified palaces."

One of Trump's last significant acts while in office was ordering the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, former head of Iran's Al-Quds Force.

The 2020 attack in Baghdad, hailed by Trump as a "flawless precision strike", also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a senior Iraq government official and head of the irregular Popular Mobilisation Forces.

Iranian journalist and former diplomat Amir Mousawi also implied the attack was "divine" retribution for the killing of Muhandis and Soleimani, tweeting "soul for a soul and an eye for an eye" and suggesting Netanyahu would be next.

Others pointed out the irony of Israeli officials' condemnation of the Trump attack just a day after their own attempted assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Gaza:

And as night follows day, numerous social media users also attempted to link the assassination to a range of Middle Eastern factions, with some in the US and Israel claiming the shooter was a supporter of Hamas, some blaming the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency, and some Turkish users saying he was a supporter of the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

While Trump's arch-nemesis Iran has yet to comment on the shooting, a number of Trump supporters tried to link the Islamic Republic to the shooting by citing a statement by an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander last year in which he said they "hope we can kill Trump, [former Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo, [former US general Kenneth] McKenzie and the military commanders who gave the order" to kill Soleimani.

So far however, despite speculation and conspiracy theories, the motivation of the shooter has yet to be determined.

* * *

Meanwhile...

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 17:30

These Are The 10 US States With The Highest Cost Of Living

These Are The 10 US States With The Highest Cost Of Living

Ever wondered where your dollar stretches the least in the U.S.?

States vary significantly when it comes to cost of living, which takes into account expected expenses for essentials like housing, food, and transportation.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu maps out the top 10 U.S. states with the highest annual cost of living in 2024. The cost of living figures are based on data calculated by Forbes Advisor.

Calculating Cost of Living

To calculate the cost of living in each state, Forbes Advisor calculated annual expenses for housing, healthcare, taxes, food, and transportation.

Their data sources include C2ER, KFF, MIT Living Wage Calculator, and the U.S. Census Bureau. You can read more about their methodology here.

Hawaii is the State with the Highest Cost of Living

The sunny state of Hawaii is the most expensive state to live in, with an average annual cost of living of $55,491.

Despite having the highest cost of living ($55,491), Hawaii also has the lowest annual average salary ($61,420) among these 10 states.

This leaves residents with an annual disposable income of $5,929–the lowest out of all 50 states.

Some factors that contribute to Hawaii’s high cost of living are its high housing costs due to housing shortages and high income taxes.

Coastal Life Isn’t Cheap

Life on either coast isn’t cheap, either.

All four West Coast states make the top 10 list, while Northeastern states like New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey also make an appearance. New York City is consistently ranked as one of the most expensive cities in the world to live in.

About 40% of the U.S. population lives on the coast, but the coast only accounts for less than 10% of the country’s land mass.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 16:55

America Was Less Than An Inch Away From Socio-Political Disaster

America Was Less Than An Inch Away From Socio-Political Disaster

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Former President and impending Republican Nominee Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at an outdoor rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday days before his party’s national convention after suddenly turning his head at the last second and thus miraculously dodging a bullet that only ended up grazing his ear. The shooter was killed by the Secret Service, but an eyewitness told the media that he warned the police about a man crawling on the roof a few minutes earlier, though no action was taken.

This security lapse is suspicious and prompts speculation that at least one member of the Secret Service might have purposely waited until after the shooter took his shot before neutralizing him, whether out of sympathy for his cause or perhaps because they were in on some sort of plot.

About the shooter, he’s been identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a registered Republican. It remains unclear at the time of writing what his online history was and whether there’s more to his party affiliation than meets the eye.

At the very least, there’s no doubt that the Democrats’ and their allied “Never Trumpers’” hatemongering played a role in radicalizing the suspect.

Had he succeeded in assassinating Trump, then the US would have certainly plunged into socio-political disaster, which it literally missed by less than an inch. Many expect that powerful Democrat donors might soon force Biden to drop out of the race, thus leading to the party selecting their nominee outside of the notionally democratic primary process.

Their Republican counterparts would have done the same on their side of the aisle, especially since Trump hadn’t yet announced his Vice-Presidential pick by the time of his attempted assassination. Both parties would therefore have likely chosen nominees that didn’t complete their respective primary processes, thus blatantly disenfranchising Americans even more than they already are in reality. In theory, the elections could be delayed to re-run the primaries, but Congress might not agree to it.

Even if they did, the aforementioned hyperlinked article reminded readers that the 20th Amendment mandates the end of the President and Vice-President’s four-year terms at noon on 20 January, thus leading to (replacement) President Harris being forced to step down before a new one is elected. Her Vice-Presidential replacement could only be speculated upon in that scenario since the 25th Amendment stipulates that they’d have to be confirmed by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Whether or not the elections would be delayed, the US would continue to be ruled by the “governing oligarchy” that Axios reported late last month is the real power behind Biden. This analysis here that was coincidentally published earlier that same day noted that “The country is being ruled by a shadowy network of transnational and domestic elites that are united by their radical liberal-globalist ideology.” This group simply exploits Biden as their placeholder to publicly legitimize all of their decisions.

They’d remain in power if the Democrats keep the White House or if a “Republican In Name Only” (RINO) replaced Trump had he been assassinated. The former President promised supporters that he’d make good on his former pledge to “drain the swamp” if he’s re-elected, and while precedent suggests that he might once again fail, there’s still a chance that he might partially succeed. At the very least, his return could create the conditions for some replacements, who might be conservative-nationalists.

This insight sheds light on those forces who’d be pleased had he been assassinated, namely the liberal-globalist clique that secretly controls American policy, and they’d also have been delighted that Trump wouldn’t get the opportunity to end their latest “forever war” in Ukraine like he sought to do. His potential Republican successor could try to follow in his planned footsteps, but they also might not be interested in doing so if they’re a RINO, hence why taking Trump out could have been a game-changer.  

On the home front, there’s no doubt that “shitlibs” would have plastered pictures of Trump’s blown-out brains all over social media and their cities in order to incite his supporters to violence, and some of them would have predictably obliged after being endlessly provoked with such images. The ruling liberal-globalists have wanted to radicalize MAGA members for a while already in order to further discredit their movement and create a compelling pretext for cracking down more forcefully upon them all.

It also can’t be ruled out that some of these newly radicalized supporters of his might have carried out “retributive violence” by targeting Democrat officials from the federal level on down to the local one if they blamed them for his assassination. Infamous anti-Trump celebrities and influencers could also have been caught up in this bloody campaign, which might have led to martial law in parts of the country like Trump should have imposed during the Democrats’ spree of urban terrorism in summer 2020.

America’s socio-political fabric could therefore have very easily been torn to shreds had Trump not suddenly turned his head at the last minute and thus miraculously averted this worst-case scenario by less than an inch. There’s no guarantee that this won’t happen again, however, which is why it’s imperative that Trump immediately announce his Vice-Presidential pick and ideally choose someone who the ruling liberal-globalist elite is also afraid of in order to reduce the chances of him being killed.

Regardless of whatever happens, America just got a reality check about how close it is to descending into chaos, which shows how much it’s changed for the worse since 2016. Partisan radicalization and elite scheming have always been around, but they reached an unprecedented level after Trump became the Republican Nominee back then. He’s an imperfect candidate with a lot of personal flaws, but his re-election is the last chance to save America from itself if he succeeds in implementing his lofty plans. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 16:20

The Fed, Breadth, And Liquidity

The Fed, Breadth, And Liquidity

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Breadth and liquidity go hand in hand. In this report, we revisit Thursday, what led up to it, and what it might mean going forward. However, first we are compelled to share this really interesting fact about Thursday. According to @bespokeinvest, there was only one other day since 1979 where the Russell 2000 rose 3%+ while the S&P 500 was down, and that was in October 2008. We saw many reports stating that Thursday was the biggest divergence between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 in several years, but that doesn’t interest us as much as needing to go back to 2008 to find a similar trading day. October 2008 was still at the height of the financial crisis. Lehman had failed. Investment banks were converting into banks, and D.C. was voting (almost daily) on measures to support the financial system and the economy. Corporate bond issuance ground to a halt. CDS auction mechanics became a dinner time topic. Things were in disarray then and the fact that we need to go back that far to find a similar day is eerie. Thursday started quite “normally.” Academy helped breakdown the CPI numbers live on Yahoo Finance. The bond market was responding “appropriately” to what was very good inflation data (not just the headlines, but also the details). Maybe the initial muted reaction by stocks should have been a warning sign of what was to come, but it wasn’t obvious that we were in for the sort of day that has only happened once in 45 years! It should have been a “ho-hum” sort of day, but instead a rotation trade started, and given both liquidity (and we’d argue the concentration effect in “passive” strategies), it became unstoppable.

The records will show that on the week the Nasdaq Composite index finished up 0.25% (the Nasdaq 100 finished down 0.3%) and the Rusell 2000 charged ahead by 6%, but the story is bigger, more interesting, and more dangerous than that!

If Only There Was An August FOMC Meeting

Markets are pricing in 1 cut by the end of the September meeting (95% likely that it happens at that meeting). As laid out last week, we believe that The Path to Cuts is clear and necessary. While July still seems unlikely, there are more economists and Fed watchers calling for that date. We have been adamant that not only does the data warrant a July cut, but also that it would be easier on the Fed (in terms of getting dragged into election social media) if they go ahead in July.

While it remains unlikely, there are a few things worth considering as we approach that meeting:

  • CPI was good. Housing was less of a problem, but it still overstates the actual rent increases occurring now because of how it is calculated. Apparently, this is something that Congress will have to address, since CPI is the basis for COLA adjustments in Social Security.
    • Several components, based on annualizing the last 3 months, are actually deflationary. While it is great to see  prices come down (as opposed to seeing the rate of change slow down), that might be something the Fed wants to watch. Beyond that, many components, again, based on annualizing the last 3 months, are below the 2% stated target. The internals point to even more progress on inflation than the already good headline numbers indicate.
  • We get PCE on Friday July 26th, ahead of the meeting. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Core PCE expectations for the annual rate are set at 2.6% according to Bloomberg. While looking back over 12 months is somewhat useful, it is often overly influenced by data no longer reflective of the current trend. With the monthly estimate of 0.2% we could claim 2.4% annualized, but our preferred method is to take 3-month data and annualize it. With May having come in at 0.08% and April at 0.26%, we could possibly see 0.5% for 3 months, annualizing to 2% - mission accomplished. Okay, that is a bit of a stretch, but is it? Look for expectations to move lower as economists update their models. Let’s also not forget that PCE Deflation has spent much of its adult life below 2% (see the PCE Nothingburger from March).
  • PPI. Sure, PPI came in a touch high, but PPI ranks pretty much near the bottom of the barrel in terms of predicting future inflation. In theory, it should, but we’ve seen very little work demonstrating that what makes sense on paper turns out to work in the real world. More interesting is that we’ve seen some work indicating that the portions of PPI that flow into PCE were quite good, increasing the odds that PCE will be “surprisingly” good.
  • Inflation expectation. While the CONsumer CONfidence survey also ranks low in terms of predictive value, the FOMC does like to know about inflation expectations. Both the 1-year and 10-year readings came in below 3% for the first time since March. While still a touch high, they are moving back in the right direction for the Fed. This supports a September cut more than a July one, but it does help us along the path to cuts.

The one thing that concerns me more than anything else about inflation is the increased risk of some sort of Geopolitical Event occurring while so many in the U.S. seem focused on our election, rather than on what is going on around the globe (see registration link to our upcoming Geopolitical and Macro Strategy Webinar on July 17th at 11am ET).

Breadth, Liquidity, and Narratives

Until Thursday afternoon, the only narrative that I heard on bonds was:

  • Lower yields are great for mega caps!

We’ve argued, from time to time, that this “correlation” seems to come and go. That there are times when it seems to hold true, and others when it doesn’t. But that has always been more in the context of the “bad news is good” versus the “bad news is bad” argument.

Yet, by Thursday afternoon, apparently it was “obvious” that rate cuts should spur a rotation into small caps?

  • According to Bloomberg, by the close on Thursday, the market was pricing in 0.995 cuts by the end of the September meeting (91% likely to occur at the September meeting with only an 8.5% chance of a July cut). That did move from the 0.78 cuts at the close on Wednesday, and 0.825 cuts that were priced in at the end of last week. That hardly seems like enough to trigger a move at the magnitude of what we saw on Thursday. Also, let’s not forget that the move didn’t occur in the futures market, or really at the open.

It is always nice to have a narrative, but I’m pretty sure that not a lot of bingo cards had a 3% increase in the Rusell 2000 and a loss of almost 1% in the S&P 500 on a “medium-sized” beat of the data.

That sort of outsized move concerns me. While breadth, or lack thereof, has been a major concern of ours, it is unclear if it is “healthy” to reverse all of that in 2 days.

Being brutally honest, who didn’t think (or fear, in the case of the bears) that as the Nasdaq 100 climbed 314 points as we neared 2pm, it would retrace all of Thursday’s losses? While keeping the small cap gains? In the end, it dropped almost 200 points from there, mostly in the last half hour of trading. Yet another sign, from our seat, of abysmal liquidity.

So, we start next week having experienced some incredibly unusual divergences and clear signs that liquidity, in either direction, is lacking.

The Near Impossibility of Equal Weight Indices

The S&P 500 has a total market cap of $49 trillion as of Friday. The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market index is at $57 trillion (by value, the S&P 500 covers about 86% of the U.S. stock market).

S&P 500 vs S&P Equal Weight: 2018 - 2019

Over this 2-year period, the overall index outperformed the equal weighted index by 5.5%.

S&P 500 vs S&P Equal Weight: 2020 – March 2023

During the more than 3 years tracked in the chart, which included COVID, ZIRP, and the meteoric rise and fall of ARKK, we saw some deviations between the 2 indices, but typically under 10%. Again, remember we had so many “one-off events” to digest like oil futures trading negative, that it seems difficult to believe that they tracked each other so closely. Yet, they did and finished this more than 3-year period with a performance difference of less than 2%.

In theory why shouldn’t 500 stocks, representing over 85% of the entire U.S. stock market, perform similarly regardless of whether they are equal weighted, or market cap weighted? Probably the main reason why hardly anyone ever talked about the equal weighted indices was because they didn’t behave that much differently.

S&P 500 vs S&P Equal Weight: March 2023 – Present

We start seeing a divergence shortly after the “official” launch of ChatGPT and “generative AI capabilities” in early 2023 (a version was released in November 2022, but it didn’t seem to resonate as much then).

Possibly another factor is that the 2nd to last rate hike occurred in May 2023, with the last hike occurring in July 2023. The divergence, though, stayed relatively stable until this year. From the middle of 2023 until the start of this year, it was somewhat “stable” at around 6%. Yes, we had an initial deviation, but it grew gradually. That is not the case now. It went to 9% by the end of March and stood at a whopping 20% as of Wednesday of last week. The equal weight index is actually down from March 27th. Again, that seems almost difficult to do and I think it is far more important than any relationship between the S&P 500 (or Nasdaq) and the Russell 2000.

When comparing different indices, we have different returns to apply to most stocks since there is only a limited overlap.

The same stocks create a 17.7% return year-to-date when using market weights, and only a 6.7% return when using an equal weight.

It is a bit like seeing a team with a record setting .500 batting average, that is losing most games. Two people are hitting almost a thousand and no one else is able to bat them in, because everyone else is hitting below the Mendoza line!

The top 12 companies (13 holdings) currently account for almost 40% of the market cap index. Those stocks are up an average of 42%.

The average return of the other 490 or so companies is 5%.

The average return, year-to-date (ignoring dividends), of the smallest 250 companies in the S&P 500 is 0%!

In many ways, it is almost staggering how this measure of the U.S. stock market is really now just captive to a handful of companies (from a return perspective).

That has been great as the momentum has continued, but as we saw on Thursday, and even late Friday afternoon, that can easily be a double-edged sword.

New Money versus “Recycled” Money

On Thursday, it looked like investors (or at least one large investor in an illiquid market) sold big caps to buy small caps.

On Friday, at least for a little while, all stocks were going up. Presumably, this was the “money on the sidelines” argument, where investors have been waiting to shift money from bonds (money market funds) into equities. But that trade faded across the board. Not enough to cast complete doubt on the money on the sidelines argument, but enough to make us wonder.

Do investors need to sell one stock to buy another stock, or can they shift from some other asset class into stocks?

That is the biggest question as we enter this week.

For now, at least, liquidity seems low enough that on a percentage basis, we can see the “laggards” do well even if the winners are going down. The market cap of the laggards is so small relative to that of the year-to-date gainers, that the buying pressure can create very nice pops in the small caps.

Bottom Line

Watch for signs that momentum (including the mega caps) is rolling over. Thursday, and even late Friday, had many of the hallmarks of “quant fund” selling. We have seen time and again in these markets (including Treasuries) the ability of quants to overrun liquidity. No one ever cares or complains when quants are buying what they are buying (since it makes the prices go up), but it is scary when it goes the other way (like quants helping to push 10-year yields to 5% last autumn). These are crowded trades with lots of positions based on technicals, there are lots of “it can’t go down” calls, and presumably there is leverage (there is always leverage).

Base case is outperformance of small caps, value, and anyone “left behind,” but in a down market, and one fraught with the risk of a sizable one day move!

Rates. Even with rate cut bets increasing, we should see steeper (and less inverted) curves. Watching 10s closely as they broke through some resistance on Friday, but not enough to change our expected range of 4.3% to 4.5%. We are nervous (for the first time since we set this range) that we are too high, but we are sticking to our guns there for now.

Credit should be good but watch for some weakness if banks report significant loan loss reserves or any additional signals that consumer credit is as stretched as many fear.

July illiquidity, quants, paradigm shifts, geopolitical risks, and a Fed caught between a rock (lower inflation and a slackening labor market) and a hard place (memories of transitory and the 1970s) may make this a summer where vacations are spent focused on markets rather than enjoying yourself! Hopefully not, but it is shaping up in a way that risks that had been below the waterline are being exposed.

In terms of lack of breadth, beware of what you wish for, as getting an expansion of breadth may come with far more costs than the “money on the sidelines” crowd bargained for!

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 14:00

Sacramento Threatens To Fine Target For Reporting Retail Thefts

Sacramento Threatens To Fine Target For Reporting Retail Thefts

Via HeadlineUSA.com,

Sacramento officials threatened to sue Target this week if the corporation continues to report retail theft crimes to local law enforcement.

The Sacramento City Attorney’s Office allegedly warned Target, located in Land Park, that it could face public nuisance charges if it continues to call the cops when its merchandise is stolen, according to the Sacramento Bee.

An official with the Sacramento Police Department confirmed the location to the publication. But the City Attorney’s Office denied that it was aware of any litigation threats.

However, city officials reportedly met with Target during a meeting following the report to come up with a “safety plan” to mitigate future retail theft. During the meeting, city officials allegedly aired their grievances against Target, which agreed to beef up its own security measures—including “alarms, cameras, and security personnel” along with the implementation of “light fixtures, landscaping, wayfinding and space activation measures,” according to the Bee.

In response to the report, state lawmakers also took action and added an amendment to a retail theft bill this week that would outlaw these types of threats toward businesses from authorities.

California Republicans, who have raised concerns about the retail theft bill, blasted Gov. Gavin Newsom and his “pro-criminal policies” for punishing law-abiding businesses and rewarding criminals.

“Newsom keeps insisting that reports of theft are dropping—well, now we know why. Not only are thieves let off without even a slap on the wrist, but now the victims are being threatened for even reporting crimes,” said California Assembly GOP leader James Gallagher.

Even leftists in the state agreed that Sacramento’s alleged behavior toward Target was disconcerting. Blake Randol, a criminal justice professor at California State University, Stanislaus, told the Sacramento Bee that Sacramento’s alleged actions would only deter other businesses from reporting future crimes.

“What’s problematic is that what Target is complaining about is a legitimate crime concern,” Randol said. “The city does have a responsibility to be more responsive to the public and be responsive to crime control demands from the public.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 11:40

Jeffrey Sachs: The NATO Declaration & The Deadly Strategy Of Neoconservatism

Jeffrey Sachs: The NATO Declaration & The Deadly Strategy Of Neoconservatism

Authored by Jeffrey D. Sachs

In 1992, U.S. foreign-policy exceptionalism went into overdrive. The U.S. has always viewed itself as an exceptional nation destined for leadership, and the demise of the Soviet Union in December 1991 convinced a group of committed ideologues—who came to be known as neoconservatives—that the U.S. should now rule the world as the unchallenged sole superpower. Despite countless foreign policy disasters at neocon hands, the 2024 NATO Declaration continues to push the neocon agenda, driving the world closer to nuclear war.

The neoconservatives were originally led by Richard Cheney, the Defense Secretary in 1992. Every President since then—Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden—has pursued the neocon agenda of U.S. hegemony, leading the U.S. into perpetual wars of choice, including Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine, as well as relentless eastward expansion of NATO, despite a clear U.S. and German promise in 1990 to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move one inch eastward.

The core neocon idea is that the U.S. should have military, financial, economic, and political dominance over any potential rival in any part of the world. It is targeted especially at rival powers such as China and Russia, and therefore brings the U.S. into direct confrontation with them. The American hubris is stunning: most of the world does not want to be led by the U.S., much less led by a U.S. state clearly driven by militarism, elitism and greed.

The neocon plan for U.S. military dominance was spelled out in the Project for a New American Century. The plan includes relentless NATO expansion eastward, and the transformation of NATO from a defensive alliance against a now-defunct Soviet Union to an offensive alliance used to promote U.S. hegemony. The U.S. arms industry is the major financial and political backer of the neocons. The arms industry spearheaded the lobbying for NATO's eastward enlargement starting in the 1990s. Joe Biden has been a staunch neocon from the start, first as Senator, then as Vice President, and now as President.

To achieve hegemony, the neocon plans rely on CIA regime-change operations; U.S.-led wars of choice; U.S. overseas military bases (now numbering around 750 overseas bases in at least 80 countries); the militarization of advanced technologies (biowarfare, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, etc.); and relentless use of information warfare.

The quest for U.S. hegemony has pushed the world to open warfare in Ukraine between the world’s two leading nuclear powers, Russia and the United States. The war in Ukraine was provoked by the relentless determination of the U.S. to expand NATO to Ukraine despite Russia’s fervent opposition, as well as the U.S. participation in the violent Maidan coup (February 2014) that overthrew a neutral government, and the U.S. undermining of the Minsk II agreement that called for autonomy for the ethnically Russian regions of eastern Ukraine.

The NATO Declaration calls NATO a defensive alliance, but the facts say otherwise. NATO repeatedly engages in offensive operations, including regime-change operations. NATO led the bombing of Serbia in order to break that nation in two parts, with NATO placing a major military base in the breakaway region of Kosovo. NATO has played a major role in many U.S. wars of choice. NATO bombing of Libya was used to overthrow the government of Moammar Qaddafi.

The U.S. quest for hegemony, which was arrogant and unwise in 1992, is absolutely delusional today, since the U.S. clearly faces formidable rivals that are able to compete with the U.S. on the battlefield, in nuclear arms deployments, and in the production and deployment of advanced technologies. China’s GDP is now around 30% larger than the U.S. when measured at international prices, and China is the world’s low-cost producer and supplier of many critical green technologies, including EVs, 5G, photovoltaics, wind power, modular nuclear power, and others. China’s productivity is now so great that the U.S. complains of China’s “over-capacity.”

Sadly, and alarmingly, the NATO declaration repeats the neoconservative delusions.

The Declaration falsely declares that “Russia bears sole responsibility for its war of aggression against Ukraine,” despite the U.S. provocations that led to the outbreak of the war in 2014.

The NATO Declaration reaffirms Article 10 of the NATO Washington Treaty, according to which NATO’s eastward expansion is none of Russia’s business. Yet the U.S. would never accept Russia or China establishing a military base on the US border (say in Mexico), as the U.S. first declared in the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 and has reaffirmed ever since.

The NATO Declaration reaffirms NATO’s commitment to biodefense technologies, despite growing evidence that U.S. biodefense spending by NIH financed the laboratory creation of the virus that may have caused the Covid-19 pandemic.

The NATO Declaration proclaims NATO’s intention to continue to deploy anti-ballistic Aegis missiles (as it has already done in Poland, Romania, and Turkey), despite the fact that the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and placement of Aegis missiles in Poland and Romania has profoundly destabilized the nuclear arms control architecture.

The NATO Declaration expresses no interest whatsoever in a negotiated peace for Ukraine.

The NATO Declaration doubles-down on Ukraine’s “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.” Yet Russia will never accept Ukraine’s NATO membership, so the “irreversible” commitment is an irreversible commitment to war.

The Washington Post reports that in the lead-up to the NATO summit, Biden had serious qualms about pledging an “irreversible path” to Ukraine’s NATO membership, yet Biden’s advisors brushed aside these concerns.

The neoconservatives have created countless disasters for the U.S. and the world, including several failed wars, a massive buildup of U.S. public debt driven by trillions of dollars of wasteful war-driven military outlays, and the increasingly dangerous confrontation of the U.S. with China, Russia, Iran, and others. The neocons have brought the Doomsday Clock to just 90 seconds to midnight (nuclear war), compared with 17 minutes in 1992.

For the sake of America's security and world peace, the U.S. should immediately abandon the neocon quest for hegemony in favor of diplomacy and peaceful co-existence.

Alas, NATO has just done the opposite.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/14/2024 - 07:00

The Roots Of World War III

The Roots Of World War III

Authored by Francis P. Sempa via RealClearWire.com,

The American diplomat and historian George F. Kennan called the First World War the “seminal catastrophe” of the 20th century, and he wrote two lengthy books on the events that led to the outbreak of that war: The Decline of Bismarck’s European Order and The Fateful Alliance. He also included one of his lectures on the First World War in his book American Diplomacy. Reading these works of history gives one a better sense of the root causes of that war, which included policies, decisions, and events that occurred decades before June-August 1914.

When the war began in the Balkans after the assassination of the Austrian archduke and his wife in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, few foresaw that the conflict would eventually engulf most of Europe and parts of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and result in the toppling of four empires (Romanov, Hohenzollern, Hapsburg, and Ottoman), the deaths of more than 10 million combatants, the aerial bombing of cities, the use of poison gas, the carving-up of territories in the Middle East that would engender conflicts that continue to this day, the creation of revolutionary secular ideologies that led to an even more destructive war and a Cold War that followed it. When Kennan reviewed the major diplomatic and international events in the rest of the century, he remarked that “all the lines of inquiry” led back to World War I.

Today, with wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and a gathering storm in the western Pacific, there is concern that the world is lurching toward another world war. All three conflicts involve at least one nuclear armed power. Some respected strategists and observers believe that an “axis” of autocracies (Russia, China, Iran, and perhaps North Korea) are collaborating to undermine the global order produced by the end of the Cold War, and are urging the United States and its allies to become more deeply involved in these conflicts. Some have even urged the formulation of a “grand strategy” for winning the Third World War. The “lessons of Munich” have been invoked along with Churchillian-like warnings about the need to confront aggressors now to deter future aggression. Those who counsel prudence or restraint, or who promote diplomatic solutions to these conflicts are often labeled “appeasers” or worse.

In The Decline of Bismarck’s European Order, Kennan wrote that the origins of World War I could be traced to at least 1875, when the future Franco-Russian alliance first germinated in the minds of the statesmen of both countries. A hallmark of German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck’s diplomacy was to prevent an alliance between France and Russia. When Bismarck left the scene in 1890--forced into retirement by the brash Kaiser Wilhelm II--his alliance structure gradually fell apart. During the next two decades, France and Russia grew closer, eventually entering into what Kennan called the “fateful alliance” in 1894. Germany, meanwhile, allowed the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia to lapse, grew closer to Austria-Hungary, while simultaneously scaring Great Britain by challenging it at sea. Yet, almost to the very day in August 1914, that Germany declared war on Russia, and the alliance system quickly brought other great powers into the war, few believed that the regional war between Austria-Hungary and Serbia would spread across Europe, into Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, and draw into the maelstrom of conflict combatants from Australia, North America, and elsewhere.

In The Fateful Alliance, Kennan explained what he characterized as a “whole series of . . . aberrations, misunderstandings, and bewilderments that have played so tragic and fateful a part in the development of Western civilization over the subsequent decades.” He continued:

One sees how the unjustified assumption of war’s likelihood could become the cause of its final inevitability. One sees the growth of military-technological capabilities to levels that exceed man’s capacity for making any rational and intelligent use of them. One sees how the myopia induced by indulgence in the mass emotional compulsions of modern nationalism destroys the power to form any coherent, realistic view of true national interest. One sees, finally, the inability of otherwise intelligent men to perceive the inherent self-destructive quality of warfare among the great industrial powers of the modern age.

Kennan worried that in the nuclear age, these developments could result in “a catastrophe from which there can be no recovery and no return.”

In his seminal history of World War II, The Second World Wars, Victor Davis Hanson described how a series of smaller, regional wars--an Italian-Ethiopian war, a German/Soviet-Polish war, a German-Norwegian war, a German-Danish war, a German/Italian-French/British war, a German-Yugoslav war, a German-Greek war, a German-Soviet War, a Japanese-Chinese War, a U.S./Britain-Japan War--expanded into a global conflict of unprecedented proportions and destruction.

Today, the wars between Russia-Ukraine/NATO/US, Israel/US-Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran, and the China-Taiwan/U.S. dispute are regional conflicts that if not limited and resolved may expand into a global conflict among nuclear powers--a Third World War, which, to paraphrase George Kennan, would be a catastrophe from which there would be no recovery and no return. Yet, the United States under the Biden administration seems intent on continuing and escalating its involvement in Ukraine, even as it sends mixed signals about our intentions in the Middle East and the western Pacific. Adding to the danger is a growing perception both here and abroad that the American president is cognitively unfit for the job of commander-in-chief and chief diplomat.

Should, God forbid, World War III evolve out of these regional conflicts, historians of Kennan’s depth and insight may trace its roots to the early post-Cold War years when successive administrations expanded NATO and positioned the alliance on Russia’s European borders despite vigorous protests from successive Russian leaders (Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin), and prophetic warnings from Kennan and several other experts on Russia and international affairs (including Richard Pipes, Edward Luttwak, Jack Matlock, Jr, Paul Nitze, Fred Ikle, Sam Nunn, Marshall Shulman) that NATO enlargement would produce an aggressive Russian reaction. Those same historians may also cite the foolish and failed post-Cold War engagement of China which helped facilitate the rise of our next peer competitor even as it drove Russia into the arms of that peer competitor while we were distracted fighting peripheral wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and clearing the way for greater Iranian influence in the Middle East in our quest to remake that region in our own image (the so-called “Arab Spring”).

Now, some in the West are calling on the U.S. and its allies to invite Ukraine to become a member of NATO even as Ukraine’s war with Russia gives no sign of ending. This caused more than 60 foreign policy specialists and scholars to pen an open letter to NATO leaders urging them not to invite Ukraine into the alliance. “Moving Ukraine toward membership in the alliance,” the letter states, “could make the problem worse, turning Ukraine into the site of a prolonged showdown between the world’s two leading nuclear powers and playing into Vladimir Putin’s narrative that he is fighting the west in Ukraine rather then the people of Ukraine.” Such a move, the signers contend, “would reduce the security of the United States and NATO allies, at considerable risk to all.”

Let us hope that a future George Kennan will not describe a U.S.-NATO-Ukraine Treaty as a “fateful alliance.”

Francis P. Sempa is a regular contributor to RealClearDefense and writes the Best Defense column each month.  Read his latest: "Rise and Fall of American Naval Mastery."

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 23:20

Russian Plot To Assassinate CEO Of German Arms Giant Dismissed As 'Fake' Intel Story By Kremlin

Russian Plot To Assassinate CEO Of German Arms Giant Dismissed As 'Fake' Intel Story By Kremlin

Top German government and political figures have reacted with outrage to a CNN report alleging that Russian intelligence had plotted to assassinate Armin Papperger, who is the head of Germany's biggest arms company Rheinmetall. The company is among the top European suppliers of 155mm artillery shells, tanks, armored vehicles, and other crucial military equipment to Kiev.

The Kremlin is calling it fantasy and pointing to zero evidence being presented alongside the major accusation. Here's how the bombshell CNN report published late this past week began: "US intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of a powerful German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five US and western officials familiar with the episode."

Armin Papperger, via Bloomberg

There have been widespread allegations for several months in Western media pointing to an irregular and covert Russian warfare campaign to conduct sabotage missions against European defense and manufacturing companies supplying Ukraine.

The CNN report alluded to these prior stories: "The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort, these sources said." It detailed further that "The plan to kill Armin Papperger, a white-haired goliath who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature."

In recent months, there have been several instances of fires engulfing weapons and ammo manufacturing sites in the UK and on the European continent, some of which we detailed previously. Simultaneously, Russia has been subject of similarly mysterious blazes at defense contractor buildings and companies.

As for the alleged plot to take out the CEO of Rheinmetal, the CNN story is sourced entirely to anonymous intelligence officials, making it impossible to verify at this point, other than taking the word of US, German, and NATO officials. 

According to more from the original CNN report, "When the Americans learned of the effort, they informed Germany, whose security services were then able to protect Papperger and foil the plot. A high-level German government official confirmed that Berlin was warned about the plot by the US."

But Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the allegations as 'fake news': "It's all presented in the style of another fake story, so such reports cannot be taken seriously," he said at the end of the week.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock belatedly appeared to confirm that the German government finds the warnings credible. "In view of latest reports on Rheinmetall, this is what we have actually been communicating more and more clearly in recent months: Russia is waging a hybrid war of aggression," she had told a press briefing at the NATO summit in Washington.

Papperger himself has since described to the Financial Times that German authorities had imposed a "great deal of security around my person" - and he's now considered to be the most highly protected private citizen in all of Germany.

Another interesting aspect to the story is the timing: the CNN revelation corresponded precisely to the close of the annual NATO summit in D.C. at a moment Western officials urged the alliance to stay the course on Ukraine, and commit to supplying more weapons for years to come.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 22:45

Scientists Find A Cause of Lupus And A Way To Potentially Reverse It

Scientists Find A Cause of Lupus And A Way To Potentially Reverse It

Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Patients with lupus have an imbalance in a crucial chemical pathway in their bodies, according to a Nature study published on Wednesday.

(ART-ur/Shutterstock).

Researchers found that this imbalance produces more disease-causing cells that promote lupus. If this chemical imbalance can be corrected, they believe lupus can be reversed.

Current lupus treatments often target symptoms or broadly suppress the immune system, leading to side effects. The researchers believe targeting the specific chemical imbalance identified could more effectively treat lupus without systemic immunosuppression interventions.

Lupus is a chronic autoimmune disease that causes the body to attack its own tissues and organs, including the joints, skin, kidneys, blood cells, brain, heart, and lungs.  

There is currently no cure for lupus.

A Surprising ‘Molecular Switch’

The chemical that researchers identified is the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR).

AHR is a key protein involved in the imbalance of immune cells in lupus patients. It regulates the body’s response to environmental pollutants, bacteria, and metabolites. While AHR is present in all cells, it is not always active.

Researchers found that lupus patients have reduced AHR activity. This reduction leads to an increase in follicular and peripheral T helper cells, which are involved in inflammation and autoimmunity.

However, when AHR activity increases, these T-cells are reprogrammed to be T-cells that promote wound healing and barrier protection.

Dr. Jaehyuk Choi, associate professor of dermatology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, and the study’s senior author, explained to The Epoch Times that AHR can be compared to “a molecular switch” that determines the fate of immune cells.

By developing therapeutics that target AHR in rogue T-cells, researchers believe they may be able to reverse lupus.

Dr. Choi and Dr. Deepak Rao, an assistant professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, expressed their surprise at discovering that AHR could be vital in reversing autoimmunity, given that the receptor had no known connection to it.

Dr. Rao, who is also a senior author of the study, added that it was initially surprising to find that a T-cell involved in wound healing would be the opposite of an autoimmune T-cell.

“Those two T-cell populations with those two functions are not obviously connected or related,” he said. He added that he could not have predicted that when wound-healing T-cells increased, autoimmune T-cells would decrease, and vice versa.

T-Cells Drive Autoimmunity

Follicular and peripheral T helper cells have long been known to play a major role in driving lupus, Dr. Rao told The Epoch Times.

In lupus, the patient’s body produces autoantibodies, antibodies that attack self-tissues. B-cells generate these autoantibodies under the control of rogue autoimmune T-cells.

Therefore, by converting these autoimmune T-cells into cells involved in wound healing, the production of autoantibodies is reduced, thereby decreasing autoimmunity.

“It is almost like a cell streamline, where if you can block one part, then the downstream is blocked,” Dr. Choi explained.

He highlighted the study’s findings demonstrating that adding AHR to rogue T-cells in cell culture transforms them into wound-healing cells. These reprogrammed cells can no longer help B-cells make autoantibodies.

Dr. Rao added that these rogue T-cells are also present in other autoimmune conditions, like rheumatoid arthritis, raising the question of whether drug targets for these cells may apply to such conditions.

Treatment Without Immunosuppression

The study sampled 19 lupus patients and compared their immune cells to those of 19 healthy people.

Despite the small initial sample size, the authors told The Epoch Times that they believe their findings apply to all patients because they have been corroborated through genetic studies.

Dr. Choi explained that their findings were also validated in AstraZeneca’s TULIP clinical trials. These trials tested anifrolumab, a drug that interacts with the AHR pathway, and found it successfully controlled lupus symptoms.

Current lupus treatments are prescribed to resolve symptoms or elicit broad immunosuppressive effects by reducing B- and T-cell activity.

However, when rogue T-cells are targeted explicitly with AHR, patients may experience disease reversal without compromising their overall immunity.

Additionally, the increase in cells involved in wound and barrier repair may help alleviate gastrointestinal problems in patients with lupus.

“There have been a number of studies that have suggested abnormalities in barrier function or barrier integrity in patients with lupus, especially in the gut,” Dr. Rao said. “So one can imagine that there could be a beneficial effect of that.”

Currently, Drs. Choi and Rao’s team are working to identify specific therapeutics that selectively target only rogue T-cells.

Since AHR is present in all cells, broad administration of AHR-targeted treatments could cause systemic adverse effects, which the authors are trying to avoid.

Currently, there are already drugs on the market that activate AHR, such as toparinof, a topical cream approved for treating psoriasis.

Major Environmental Contributors to Lupus?

Researchers do not know why AHR is involved in lupus progression. It is also currently unknown why some people get lupus and others don’t, though researchers believe it is a combination of genetic and environmental exposures to toxins and infections.

Given AHR’s role in responding to environmental factors, Dr. Choi said their findings may suggest that major environmental factors contribute to lupus.

Perhaps AHR, “which normally integrates information from the outside or the environment … has gone awry in patients with lupus,” and patients may be able to resolve their lupus through lifestyle changes alone, Dr. Choi speculated.

“I think this needs more research, but it is an interesting idea that we can now think about,” he said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 22:10

At Least 90 Dead In Israeli Strike On Gaza Tent Camp Targeting Hamas Oct.7 Mastermind

At Least 90 Dead In Israeli Strike On Gaza Tent Camp Targeting Hamas Oct.7 Mastermind

Another mass casualty strike has been reported on a refugee camp in southern Gaza, where the local health ministry says at least 90 have been killed, and 300 injured, after Israeli missiles slammed into Al-Mawasi camp, allegedly hitting tents where displaced persons were staying.

Israel has said that most of the victims were likely Hamas, and that it was going after the leader of the group's Qassam Brigades, Muhammad Deif, a mastermind behind the Oct.7 attacks. Throughout the day Saturday the military said it was still investigating whether Deif was killed, of which there's as yet been no confirmation.

Aftermath of Israeli attack on a tent camp in Al-Mawasi area near the coast in southern Gaza, via Reuters.

Hamas responded by saying Israel’s "allegations about targeting leaders are false" and by design are "merely to cover up the scale of the horrific massacre."

According to some fresh updates in the NY Times:

  • The Israeli officials said the strikes had also targeted Rafah Salameh, the top Hamas commander in Khan Younis, who was with Mr. Deif at the time of the attack.

  • The Gazan authorities said that a second, smaller strike hit the center of Khan Younis, a nearby city to the east of Mawasi.

  • A senior American official said that Israel had told Washington that it targeted Mr. Deif, but the official said that neither Israel nor the United States could yet confirm his status.

Saudi Arabia has been among the earliest countries to weigh in, condemning the Israeli attack on the refugee camp.

"The Foreign Ministry condemns in strongest terms the continuation of genocidal massacres against the Palestinian people at the hands of the Israeli war machine, the latest of which was the targeting displaced people’s camps in Khan Younis in the south of the Gaza Strip," the Saudi statement said.

Hardliners in Netanyahu's coalition government have praised the strike, saying it demonstrates the need to keep intensifying operations inside Gaza. "Congratulations to the prime minister, defense minister, the IDF, and Shin Bet. Now is not the time to take the foot off Sinwar’s neck," Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich wrote on X.

Despite the Biden White House claiming that there's been tentative agreement on a new ceasefire deal mediated by Qatar and Egypt, the warring sides are still publicly blaming the other for lack of a finalized hostage deal.

Meanwhile, Hamas is urging Palestinians in the West Bank to rise up against the Israeli occupiers en masse. Senior Hamas official Abdel Hakim Henini in a statement called on Palestinians to "take action against the onslaught on their compatriots in the besieged Strip, and to stand up to Israeli settlers wreaking havoc across the West Bank."

Initial graphic scenes of the camp strike aftermath via Palestinian media...

"We reiterate how important it is for Palestinian youth to stand up to the occupying forces," Henini said. "A global war is being waged against the Palestinian people, their rights and their resistance forces. The US administration is a true partner in all the massacres being perpetrated against our people."

Simultaneously Hezbollah continues to bog down Israeli forces in the north, and it appears Hamas is hoping that a multi-front war more fully opens up. Hezbollah leadership has said that if Hamas agrees to a ceasefire deal, it too will halt its attacks from Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 21:35

Army Base Taught Soldiers That Pro-Life Groups Are Terrorists; Watchdog

Army Base Taught Soldiers That Pro-Life Groups Are Terrorists; Watchdog

Via The College Fix,

A U.S. Army base training presentation described two pro-life organizations as “terrorist groups,” according to a watchdog report confirmed by the military.

The training material was part of an “anti-terrorism brief” at Fort Liberty, formerly Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, independent journalist Sam Shoemate reported on X. The report does not indicate when the presentation happened.

According to the photo, a slide shown to soldiers described two pro-life organizations, National Right to Life and Operation Rescue, as “terrorist groups.”

It also “falsely attribute[d] the bombing of abortion clinics to National Right to Life,” the report states.

The slide also showed an image of specialty pro-life license plates, which are available in many states. The proceeds fund pregnancy support services for families in need, according to Choose Life America, the organization that promotes them.

However, the slide suggested the specialty plates are something soldiers should watch for as a potential sign of a terrorist, according to Shoemate’s report.

Soldiers who attended the presentation said the slide was shown right after another one about ISIS, and the presentation never mentioned the group Antifa, the report states.

Fort Liberty confirmed the veracity of the slide in a statement on social media late Thursday. It stated the slide will not be used anymore.

A “local garrison employee” created the presentation “to train Soldiers manning access control points at Fort Liberty,” according to the statement.

“After conducting a commander’s inquiry, we determined that the slides presented on social media were not vetted by the appropriate approval authorities, and do not reflect the views of the XVIII Airborne Corps and Fort Liberty, the U.S. Army or the Department of Defense,” the military base stated. “… all future training products will be reviewed to ensure they align with the current DoD anti-terrorism guidance.”

National Right to Life described the slide as “lazy scholarship” that promoted “outright lies” in a statement online. It noted the presentation misspelled the name of the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1973 abortion decision Roe v. Wade.

“The Biden Administration promotes the deaths of preborn babies and advocates for unlimited abortion, but peaceful pro-life Americans are labeled ‘terrorists,’” it stated.

The national pro-life organization stated it “always, constantly, and unequivocally” condemns violence “against anyone.”

Meanwhile, a University of Maryland center also listed two members of Students for Life of America in its terrorism database earlier this year, The College Fix reported. The university later removed them.

Military academies also have been accused of going woke by embracing “diversity, equity,” and “inclusion” efforts and teaching cadets critical race theory.

In 2022, the U.S. Military Academy at West Point began removing references to Confederate leaders, including General Robert E. Lee, a former superintendent of the school, The Fix reported at the time.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 21:00

New Hormone Discovery Unlocks Hope For Osteoporosis Treatment

New Hormone Discovery Unlocks Hope For Osteoporosis Treatment

Authored by Sheramy Tsai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

(Crevis/Shutterstock)

Researchers have identified a new hormone, CCN3, that significantly strengthens bones. This discovery, made while studying how breastfeeding women maintain bone density, could transform the treatment of osteoporosis and bone fractures.

Published in Nature, the new study reveals that CCN3 promotes bone formation and repair in both male and female mice, offering new hope for millions suffering from bone-related conditions.

About the Study

Researchers at University of California (UC) San Francisco (UCSF) and UC Davis collaborated to solve a long-standing medical mystery: how breastfeeding women maintain strong bones despite the significant loss of calcium needed for milk production.

In lactating mothers, the high demand for calcium needed for milk production can lead to significant bone loss. Normally, estrogen is protective for women, helping to counteract bone loss by promoting bone formation. However, its levels drop sharply during breastfeeding. Despite this drop, breastfeeding women seldom experience osteoporosis or bone fractures, suggesting another factor is at work to protect their bones.

Previous research published in Nature found that blocking a specific estrogen receptor in certain brain neurons of female mice led to significant increases in bone mass. Suspecting a hormone in the blood was responsible, the study researchers conducted an exhaustive search and identified a hormone called Cellular Communication Network Factor 3, or CCN3, as the bone-building factor in these mutant females.

Dubbed the “lactation-induced brain hormone,” CCN3 is found in the brains of lactating mice and plays a crucial role in maintaining bone strength during lactation.

“One of the remarkable things about these findings is that if we hadn’t been studying female mice, which unfortunately is the norm in biomedical research, then we could have completely missed out on this finding,” Holly Ingraham, senior author of the new study and professor of cellular molecular pharmacology at UCSF, said in a press release.

The researchers discovered that increased CCN3 levels in mice showed significant bone mass and strength improvements, even in older mice and those lacking estrogen. Tests demonstrated that mice with higher CCN3 levels had much stronger bones, as the CCN3 hormone stimulated skeletal stem cell activity. Without CCN3, these mice rapidly lost bone density, and their offspring also suffered.

Dr. Sundeep Khosla, a Mayo Clinic physician who runs the Osteoporosis and Bone Biology Laboratory, explained the significance of CCN3, known as the “maternal brain hormone” to The Epoch Times. “Anytime you identify a completely new pathway to regulate bone from the brain, that’s scientifically very interesting.”

Dr. Khosla noted that CCN3 prevents the skeleton from dissolving during lactation while stimulating bone formation for new calcium deposition. “It adds another piece to our understanding of what happens with lactation.”

Impact on Osteoporosis

Osteoporosis, a condition characterized by weakened bones and an increased risk of fractures, is a significant global health issue. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, an estimated 10 million Americans have osteoporosis, with women comprising 80 percent of those affected. Additionally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that about 44 million people have low bone mass, putting them at increased risk for osteoporosis.

Globally, osteoporosis affects around 200 million people, leading to millions of fractures annually, primarily in the hip, spine, and wrist. These fractures can cause severe pain, disability, and increased mortality, underscoring the urgent need for effective treatments such as those potentially offered by CCN3.

The financial burden of osteoporosis, estimated to cost $25 billion annually in the United States, could be significantly alleviated by treatments derived from CCN3.

Dr. Khosla highlighted the potential of CCN3 in addressing osteoporosis, emphasizing its scientific promise and economic implications. While current drugs are effective when used correctly, they are often underutilized due to fears of side effects, he said. He stressed the need for better education for both physicians and patients to optimize the use of these cost-effective treatments.

“New drugs that may result from CCN3 could be particularly beneficial for those with osteoporosis” he stated. Depending on the cost of the drug, it could potentially reduce the substantial financial burden of osteoporosis.

Potential Benefits and Future Applications

The discovery of CCN3’s role in bone health extends beyond understanding lactation. This hormone could have significant implications for accelerating fracture repair and treating osteoporosis.

In a conversation with The Epoch Times, lead author Dr. Muriel Babey explained that researchers developed a hydrogel patch that slowly releases CCN3 at bone fracture sites, leading to faster and stronger healing in elderly mice. The treated fractures healed much quicker and were stronger than those without the hormone treatment.

“We’ve never been able to achieve this kind of mineralization and healing outcome with any other strategy,” said Dr. Thomas Ambrosi, a co-author of the study from UC Davis in the press release.

While the current study focuses on mice, the implications for human health are promising. The next steps include clinical trials to test CCN3’s effectiveness in humans and further exploration of its potential applications in bone health treatments.

Dr. Khosla highlighted the limitations of current osteoporosis treatments. While drugs like bisphosphonates can prevent bone loss, the ability to reverse osteoporosis is still limited.

“We need new approaches to build bone back up,” Dr. Khosla stated, noting that existing drugs often stop working over time. He expressed hope that CCN3 could offer more sustained and robust effects in stimulating bone formation, possibly in combination with other treatments.

Dr. Babey explained that bone loss affects not only post-menopausal women but also breast cancer survivors taking hormone blockers, younger elite female athletes, and older men, who have a lower survival rate after hip fractures compared to women. If CCN3 could increase bone mass in all these groups, it would be a significant breakthrough.

With clinical trials on the horizon, CCN3 holds promise for revolutionizing bone health treatment and improving the quality of life for millions worldwide.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 19:50

Google, Facebook 'Kool-Aid' Starting To Wear Off: CEO

Google, Facebook 'Kool-Aid' Starting To Wear Off: CEO

Authored by Daniel Y. Teng via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Kwik Kopy’s CEO Sonia Shwabsky says the ubiquity of the online world, powered by Google and Facebook, is compelling business owners and marketing managers to rethink how they connect with customers.

Sonia Shwabsky, CEO of Kwik Kopy, one of Australia's most well-known print and copier businesses with over 100 stores across the country. (Courtesy of Kwik Kopy)

Instead, a renewed yearning for face-to-face interaction in the post-COVID years is galvanising the fortunes of one of Australia’s longest-running franchise brands.

Unlike other businesses struggling or closing due to the cost of living crisis—and amid high inflation pushing up business costs—the printing company is looking at expanding.

“I don’t think there’s a move away from [Google and Facebook’s online advertising]. I think people are just evaluating it more diligently than before,” she told The Epoch Times.

“One of the things we’ve been seeing is digital advertising is costing a lot more. It’s having less effect than what it used to. I think the effectiveness of emails, and all of these electronic data-driven advertising or communication tools, I think they’ve kind of had their heyday,” Ms. Shwabsky said.

The two tech giants are estimated to absorb 58 cents (US$0.39) of every dollar of digital advertising spent in Australia, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

Their popularity has also driven up the unit price of advertising over the years.

“I came over from being a [chief operating officer] in the U.S. at a digital marketing agency, and at the time, I was there drinking the Google Kool-Aid,” Ms. Shwabsky said.

“Google and Facebook have really put a lot into this narrative, and I think other areas of marketing have just got to stand up and say, ‘Hang on.’”

The CEO said there was a lot at play in the digital space, particularly with the advent of artificial intelligence, which could compel people to use the internet in different ways.

A 3D-printed logo of Facebook's parent company Meta is seen in front of the Google logo in an illustration on Nov. 2, 2021. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)

Kwik Kopy currently has 91 stores across Australia and is planning another 30. Its overall goal is to have 120 stores with 11 in regional areas, and 32 in suburban spots.

Kwik Kopy provides design and printing for business cards, signage, and brochures.

The management team also hopes to ramp up revenue by 10 percent from its pre-COVID performance. The brand currently pulls in $77 million per year.

The business praises the performance of its franchise network, particularly local owners who are grounded in the social fabric of their regions, notably stores such as Penrith, North Sydney, and Perth.

Interest in Physical Engagement

CEO Ms. Shwabsky says on another front, her company is riding a wave of renewed interest in face-to-face events and customised physical products.

“If you think about all the online businesses now, like e-commerce, the only physical touchpoint your brand has with a consumer is through that unboxing experience and what they receive in the mail,” said Ms. Shwabsky.

She says the demand for personalisation has increased noticeably in the last five years and has driven Kwik Kopy’s short run packaging (small volume order) business.

“Personalisation, as well as an increase in quality, while also making sure the experience is of the quality to represent your brand [has become important]—because it’s the only other touch point besides the computer.”

The front entrance of a Kwik Kopy store in Hurstville, Sydney Australia on July 3, 2024. (A. Chiang/The Epoch Times)

Kwik Kopy’s boss also said that in the post-pandemic era, the downsizing of commercial offices—as companies reorganise to facilitate working from home—has also been a boon.

“What do you need to do when you move offices or change your office environment? You need more signage in your office, you need to make your office feel more welcoming to get people to return,” Ms. Shwabsky said.

“The other area coming out of COVID that’s been reignited—and we’ve done a lot of studies with marketing buyers and where they’re spending their money—is they are investing at a greater rate in face-to-face events,” she added.

The CEO said demand for events-related collateral means more sales of pull-up banners, paper handouts, or branded merchandise.

“While there may be downturns and staff cuts, businesses still need to think about their marketing dollars,” she said. “You’ve just got to be more careful about what’s really going to have impact for your business.”

Her comments come as a string of major brands in Australia cut back or downsize their operations amid a range of challenges engulfing the business sector.

Business Environment Beset on All Sides

Centre-right Liberal Party MP Casey Aaron Violi last month blamed the Fair Work Commission’s decision to raise the minimum wage on Labor government policy contributing to high inflation.

“It is the equivalent of burning someone’s house down, taking them a casserole for dinner and saying: ‘Sorry I burnt your house down, here’s a casserole, please be thankful, please be grateful,’” he said in a criticism of the government.

Higher wage bills are only one area the business sector is contending with, another is soaring electricity costs, worker shortages, and the ever-expanding regulatory burden.

In early June, the Florida-based Carnival Corporation made the surprise decision to shelve 90-year-old Australian cruise brand, P&O Cruises, citing significant red tape eating into the company’s margins.

A partial view of the Pacific Explorer cruise ship operated by P&O Cruises, departing from the Overseas Passenger Terminal on June 6, 2024, in Sydney, Australia. (Jenny Evans/Getty Images)

“Given the strategic reality of the South Pacific’s small population and significantly higher operating and regulatory costs, we’re adjusting our approach to give us the efficiencies we need to continue delivering an incredible cruise experience year-round to our guests in the region,” Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein said.

At the same time, a major Australian fruit processor, SPC, announced it would cut back its order of local peaches and pears by 40 percent, a move likely to ripple through the wider growing industry.

The Victorian-based global exporter said sales had dropped because customers were shifting to cheaper Chinese and South African imports due to cost of living pressures.

The company hopes the situation can normalise by 2026.

Across the wider business sector, the picture is not optimistic either, with CreditorWatch finding insolvencies up 38 percent over the year to May 2024, and 41 percent above the pre-COVID period, according to ASIC data.

Among the industries, utility businesses involved in electricity, gas, water, and waste were the hardest hit recording an 89 percent increase in insolvencies on the previous year.

This was followed by education (87 percent), mining (72 percent), construction (46 percent), and retail trade (46 percent).

“We have known for some time now that consumers have pulled back on spending quite dramatically as high interest rates and inflation smashed household budgets,” said CreditorWatch chief economist Anneke Thompson, in a statement.

“This trend took some time to flow through to businesses but is now showing up in the data in the form of increasing late payment rates and rising court actions, as well as increased business failures and insolvencies.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 16:20

Maryland "Can't Import Itself Out Of Energy Crisis" Amid Urgent Need To Boost In-State Power Generation

Maryland "Can't Import Itself Out Of Energy Crisis" Amid Urgent Need To Boost In-State Power Generation

Authored by Stuart Kaplow and Nancy Hudes of ESG Legal Solutions, LLC.,

Maryland consumes about 40% more electricity than it generates.

The extra supply of more than 200 Trillion Btu of electricity, annually, is delivered to the state over the PJM regional grid. And the amount imported is growing dramatically. 

While the percentage of imported electricity varies from day to day (depending upon weather conditions, costs of fuel sources, energy public policy, etc.), this is not a new situation, dating back approximately 40 years, and will increase in coming years.

That in 2022 the two reactor 1970s era Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant located on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay accounted for about 39% of the state's total in state electricity generation, is what saves the State's broken publicly mandated utility system. Natural gas generation (.. which has more than tripled since 2015, as nearly 2,600 megawatts of new natural gas generating capacity came online) accounted for about 36% of in state electricity generation.

Coal fired generating plants had historically supplied more than half the state's generation, but coal's share has been below 50% since 2012 and was at about 12% in 2022.

However, of the 40% of electricity imported into Maryland for use in the state, in 2022 more than 22% was coal generated (which is a generic U.S. Energy Information Administration statistic, but PJM actual operational data shows that in that year more than 36% was coal generated). Also significant, PJM's real time market (of locational marginal prices calculated on 5 minute intervals based on actual grip operations) shows that at its peak Maryland's imported electricity is more than 70% coal generated.

Not surprisingly, the use of electricity is not static.

But neither is in state generation, including Maryland's three remaining coal power plants (with a combined generating capacity of nearly 1,800 megawatts), the two largest power plants intend to shut down by 2025 and the smallest plant has given notice it will shut down later this year. Solar energy, wind, and biomass are increasing but will not at any reasonable time replace that capacity or energy density; so, the state will import more electricity. The largest renewable electricity source available on the grid (.. not including hydroelectric dams) is landfill gas, which is an inelastic supply. Since 2022 there is arguably more solar power generated, but nearly two thirds of Maryland's solar generation came from small scale, customer sited solar, such as residential rooftop solar panels (.. and not contributing in any meaningful way to the grid).

While it is popular to talk about the fact that Maryland had about 102,530 registered electric vehicles and about 1,667 electric charging stations, with both of those numbers increasing the amount of electricity used (i.e., replacing petroleum), such only exacerbates the already existing total energy imbalance.

That is Maryland consumes about five times more energy than it produces (.. including but not limited to electricity). Around 90% of Maryland's petroleum is consumed by the transportation sector, which accounts for 33% of the state's total energy consumption, followed closely by the residential sector at 31% and the commercial sector at 29%. But the state public policy to increase electric vehicle use and electrify buildings (that are today using natural gas) will of course increase electricity use and that electricity will be imported with a significant portion of it generated from coal.   

However, the real and dramatic increase in electricity use is elsewhere. Where businesses had in the recent past used electricity principally for lighting, heating and cooling, hot water, and office equipment including computers, ignoring for this discussion the power needs of data centers, many businesses will be utilizing computers with larger chip sets increasing electricity needs (.. think AI).

In the politicization of a consultant study commissioned by the State government to justify the implementation of the Climate Solutions Now Act of 2022, which by its own admission only considers a subset of energy use that might be subject to that single state law, the spurious projection is that Maryland electric systems would see load growth rates in the range of 0.6 – 2.1% per year through 2031. The projection ignores the historical reality that Maryland's total electricity load growth has been in excess of 4.9% per year. School buildings have been among the largest constants in increasing electricity use and are excluded from that law and State government spin. The study further underestimated growth by not including any of the public or private cogeneration plants in the plants which are growing all but exponentially in response to concerns about the future unreliability of Maryland's electric grid.

The political spin around Maryland's future electric load growth is silent on the gerrymandered parameters discussed by the Maryland Department of the Environment when it by design excludes the largest private sector electricity customer in the state, Johns Hopkins (which has and is constructing large cogeneration plants) and the largest public sector electric user in the state, Fort Meade (which having maxed out electricity capacity of the grid as BGE's largest customer, now not only has its own fossil fuel generation on base but also has deployed a series of 1.6 megawatt of solid oxide fuel cells, apparently to reliably power NSA facilities, eliminating the need for electrical transmission from the grid and costly backup infrastructure). Despite those efforts, in response to future needs for increasing amounts of electricity, the U.S. Department of Defense has publicly discussed relocating equipment from the Maryland base to states with better electricity capacity.

From a conservation perspective, none of this makes much sense when Maryland ranks among the 10 states with both the lowest total per capita energy consumption and the lowest energy use to produce one dollar of GDP. MDE should take a win.

An interesting factoid, the Port of Baltimore is the second largest coal exporting port in the country, so the State's economy benefits hugely from shipping the fossil fuel to India for electricity generation although exports were temporarily halted on March 26 with the main channel blocked by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

But MDE's apocalyptic environmentalism, attempting to implement policies founded in the idea that unless humankind drastically reduces consumption the state's population and appetite will overwhelm the ecosystems, were checked by the legislature this year when the Department's plan to ration electricity (i.e., its proposed regulation of Energy Use Intensity in buildings) when the legislature cut off funding to implement EUI regulation.

The Maryland economy does not produce much of anything but rather relies heavily on government services and pendant professional services, those that support government and will be big users of energy demanding AI computing. Out of concern about the grid becoming less reliable, including the state government's aim to ration electricity, the top question by many prospective commercial tenants in Maryland has become backup electricity sources.

Maryland, like many other similarly situated states, cannot import its way out of this predicament with ever increasing electricity demand, produced from coal or not. The State's 20th century heavily government controlled utility model doesn't encourage innovation, but the state needs to innovate in matters of energy. Maryland requires a techno optimism application of science and technology to resolve this dilemma of producing more electricity.

*   *   *

Maryland's apocalyptic environmentalism pushed by progressives in Annapolis, who are quite honestly some of the worst managers this state has ever seen, have pushed disastrous green energy policies that prevent new fossil fuel power generators from being built. Hence, the state must increase power imports from surrounding states. 

In return, utilities have to build massive transmission lines, seizing private property, to import power from other states. If the state actually allowed new fossil fuel plants, NatGas generators could be built down the street from new AI data centers. 

Read more ...

Overall, the state is sliding into an energy crisis, with a critical need to boost in-state electricity generation as the 'Next AI Trade' theme gains momentum.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 14:00

"Please Explain This": White House Press Association Prez Busted In Huge Biden Lie?

"Please Explain This": White House Press Association Prez Busted In Huge Biden Lie?

The President of the White House Correspondents' Association, NBC News' Kelly O'Donnell, has reignited controversy over whether President Biden receives press questions in advance.

"To those who make the false charge, the WH press corps does not provide questions in advance," O'Donnell posted on X, suggesting that at most - "The president has a list of media who are credentialed in advance," and that "His team knows who will be in the room and chose reporters from news wires, TV, print, and radio including a Polish journalist. We did not know who would be selected in advance."

Anyone not in the leftist media echo chamber knew this was a lie. Journalist Stephen Miller seized and pounced on poor Kelly, pointing out that she's a lying dog-faced pony soldier of the worst varietal, with a photo that went viral last year of a LA Times journalist's questions in advance.

Edit: Of course, as ZH reader SDShack notes in the comments below

"When she says the 'WH Press staff doesn't provide questions in advance to POTATUS, that could very well be true. What she DID NOT say was 'POTATUS staff gave us the questions they want us to ask, and by who, and if we don't agree, that person does not get called on...so naturally we agree to their wishes'. See how the game is played?"

Kelly also seems to have missed a giant story from earlier this week - in which a Milwaukee radio host resigned after admitting that Biden aides gave her questions in advance of an interview. The same station admitted they edited Biden's interview at the request of the Biden campaign.

Live view of corporate media:

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 13:25

Take Away The Car Keys

Take Away The Car Keys

Authored by John Maxwell Hamilton via RealClearPolitics,

One of the saddest moments of my life was the day I felt compelled to tell my father that he should give up his car and stop driving. He resisted, but only briefly. It was an example of the kind of man my father was.

And it is an example for us today when we consider the peril our republic faces with President Biden clinging to his reelection bid.

We all know the liberating feeling we had when we got our first driver’s license. The opposite feeling comes when it is time to turn it in. In my dad’s case, the problem was diminished eyesight. A resilient man, he had learned to live with many handicaps, including loss of a leg and use of an arm. He told me of a trick he successfully used at traffic intersections to compensate for his difficulty discerning red lights from green: He waited for other cars to move.

Okay, I said, how will you feel if you end up hurting someone? That was all it took. He sold his car.

Such a moment has come now to Joseph Biden. The chances of him winning in November are virtually non-existent. Yet, he continues to make statements that defy reason in order to keep the keys to the White House.

The president’s performance in his recent debate with Donald Trump was a shock to anyone with eyes and ears. His handlers have limited his unscripted interactions with journalists for precisely this reason. Yet he and his staff insist he is as intellectually vigorous as ever and trot out ludicrous excuses for why he stumbled. One of the excuses, jetlag from recent trips abroad, showed the opposite of what was intended – that is, that it takes the president 11 days to recover from travel.

They, argue that he is the best person to beat Donald Trump in November. After all, they say, he is the only one who has bested Trump at the ballot box. On close inspection, however, the statement is nearly meaningless. Trump has only been in two election races, and the one he won was fluky, to say the least. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, ran a poor campaign – and still won the popular vote. Several Democrats have a better chance than Biden of beating Trump this time round.

It is sad to hear Biden claim he is intellectually up to the job at the same time he says the polls are not all that bad. As the RealClearPolitics Poll Average shows, Trump is decidedly ahead of Biden. Moreover, Biden probably needs around 52% of the popular vote to win, given how the Electoral College functions.

It might be comforting to think that there is still time to turn things around. But anyone can see that Biden is losing voters, not gaining them. The best that can be said is that the battle lines have been fixed in Trump’s favor. Biden has been lagging for months and that shows no signs of changing.

It is understandable that the president seeks supportive advice from staff as well as his wife, Jill, and his son, Hunter Biden. We all want reassurance. But we also need to seek out those who will give us a point of view that we do not want to hear.

Contrary to what Biden is claiming, the elites are not out to get him. Taking on the mantle of victimhood only makes Biden seem unhinged – and more like Trump. Polls show that nearly three-quarters of Americans think Biden is not fit to serve, mainly as a result of the impacts of aging.

The issue is not Biden’s age, per se. Donald Trump, 78, is not much younger than the president. The issue is that in recent years Biden’s acuity and physical presence have shown noticeable decline. Whatever one wants to say about Trump, he is vigorous.

One of the great strengths of the Democrats in recent years is that they have a much better record of dealing with reality than Republicans, who have blindly followed a leader whose attachment to the truth is tenuous.

Party leaders now face a test of their credibility.

Some Democratic lawmakers have begun to speak out, urging the president to end his campaign. But more – many more – must step up. They must do what they have said the opposition has failed to do: speak truth to power. Otherwise, an important distinction between the parties disappears along with the possibility of winning the November election.  

Like my father, Biden has faced personal hardship and prevailed. That courage is a sign of greatness. I stand with those who believe Biden has many accomplishments and should be proud of his presidency.

But this moment may be his greatest test. True greatness lies in facing facts, not in wishful thinking, and in thinking of the consequences for others, not oneself.

Biden needs to turn in the keys and let the party make a credible fight for the country. That’s what my father, a hardworking American who never pitied himself, would have done. I loved him for it.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 12:50

Russia Initiates Call With Pentagon After NATO Offered Ukraine 'Irreversible' Membership Path

Russia Initiates Call With Pentagon After NATO Offered Ukraine 'Irreversible' Membership Path

In a rare positive development, the heads of the US and Russian militaries have held a rare phone call in an effort to deescalate tensions. But Moscow is livid at certain recent developments and pledges from the West.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday spoke by phone Russian Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov for the second time in less than a month. The call was initiated by Moscow just after the close of the NATO summit hosted by Biden in Washington this week.

A Pentagon readout said Austin "emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine," deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told a briefing.

The two sides had been quiet since a call in March 2023, but communications have been picking up, after a June 25th call which reestablished communications.

But Russia likely registered its anger at the NATO summit committing to an "irreversible path" for Ukraine's NATO membership. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg still admitted in will be a very long path, as much as ten years or more.

He said in a CBS News interview days ago: "Well, no one has said exactly 10 years but- but- but it's obvious that it is a very serious issue to bring in Ukraine. Because Ukraine is now a country at war."

"Ukraine has been attacked by- by Russia. So the most important thing we should do is to step up our support to Ukraine to ensure that Ukraine prevails," he continued. "That's a precondition for any future membership for Ukraine."

According to The Hill, another recent issue which has roiled Russia and was likely conveyed by Belousov to Austin, is seen in the following:

What’s more, NATO has backed Ukraine’s push for more latitude in its use of Western-supplied weapons to strike inside Russia, with the United Kingdom announcing it would allow Kyiv to hit targets over Russian borders with British-provided long-range missiles.

There's also the US decision to deploy long-range missiles to Europe in violation of the previously in place INF treaty, which the US pulled out of in 2019. The missiles are expected to be deployed to Germany soon.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has warned this could make Germany or other places in Europe a target: "There has always been a paradoxical situation: the United States has deployed a variety of missiles of different ranges in Europe, which are traditionally aimed at our country," he said, and warned: "Accordingly, our country designated European locations as targets for our missiles."

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/13/2024 - 12:15

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