IDF Recovers Final Slain Hostage From Gaza, All 251 Returned To Israel

Israel is calling it "painful moment of closure" - as the Israeli military (IDF) has confirmed the return of the final captive’s remains from Gaza.

"There are officially no more hostages in captivity in Gaza," the IDF announced on X Monday. Finally, all of the 251 people taken during the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack on Israel have been returned, whether living or dead.

Source: Times of Israel

The Israeli army launched an operation beginning Sunday to search a cemetery in the Gaza Strip for the remains of the last captive, Ran Gvili. It involved the cooperation of Hamas and local Palestinians.

Gvili's body has now been brought back to Israel 843 days after being kidnapped in the October 7 Hamas/Islamic Jihad attacks, which overwhelmed southern IDF posts as well as several Jewish settlements during the large assault.

The office of Defense Minister Israel Katz said of the recovery of the remains of police Master Sgt. Gvili: "It is a moment that underscores the State of Israel’s commitment to its soldiers and citizens: to bring every single one home, as we promised the families and the Israeli public."

According to details of how his remains were positively identified:

The IDF began exhuming hundreds of bodies at a Muslim cemetery in eastern Gaza City over the weekend, and until today, had tested around 250 of them for a potential match to Gvili.

A few hours ago, dentists deployed to the cemetery were able to confirm that the dental structure of one body matched Gvili’s. In addition, fingerprints and other tests were carried out to confirm his identity, according to the military.

The Gaza war that ensued after Oct.7 lasted over two years, and killed over 71,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza sources, which doesn't categorize combatants vs. civilian deaths.

Israel has long maintained that tens of thousands of these included armed Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters, disputing the death figures put out by the Gaza health office. But even the Trump administration has acknowledged Israeli forces and aerial bombardments have slain an appalling amount of Palestinian civilians.

According to Israeli media, "Gvili served as a combat fighter in the Negev Border Police in the Southern District. On October 7, despite being injured with a broken shoulder from a motorcycle accident and scheduled for surgery, he went into combat."

The report notes that "He succeeded in saving the lives of dozens of revelers at the Re’im music festival before being killed and abducted."

Source: TOI/handout

Hamas says that in allowing the IDF recovery mission, this demonstrates the group's commitment to observing the ceasefire. "We will continue to adhere to all aspects of the agreement, including facilitating the work of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza and ensuring its success," the Hamas statement indicated.

"We call on the mediators and the United States to compel the [Israeli] occupation to cease its violations of the agreement and implement its required obligations," the group added. Israel has agreed to reopen the vital Rafah crossing upon conclusion of this hostage recovery mission, another milestone in the truce process.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 02:45

EU’s Digital Networks Act: Infrastructure Push Or Another Regulatory Straitjacket?

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

The European Commission has presented the final draft of the Digital Networks Act. The legislation is intended to establish an EU-wide framework for investments in broadband expansion and telecommunications infrastructure. Whether this approach will succeed in mobilizing private capital on a larger scale, however, remains questionable.

With the Digital Networks Act (DNA), an important European Union infrastructure framework is entering its final legislative phase. Following preparatory consultations last year, the European Commission has now published its official proposal, aimed at harmonizing national telecommunications networks across member states under uniform rules. The objective is to close the substantial technological gap with leading digital economies such as the United States and China, and to provide businesses with a reliable legal framework to accelerate the rollout of 5G technology and fiber-optic networks. Responsibility for the project lies with EU Technology Commissioner Henna Virkkunen.

DNA to Refocus Subsidy Policy

The DNA will replace the existing European Electronic Communications Code (EECC) and establish the structural framework for competition, cybersecurity, and the development of digital networks. If the European Commission succeeds in reaching an agreement with the European Parliament and the Council—widely considered likely—the regulation could enter into force as early as January 2027. The final text would then still need to be transposed into national law by the member states.

At the EU level, the Digital Europe Programme provides the financial framework for digital infrastructure expansion between 2021 and 2027, with a total budget of approximately €7.6 billion. The program supports projects in cybersecurity, cloud solutions, and digital infrastructure. In addition, the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF Digital), launched a year ago with a volume of €865 million, specifically promotes gigabit broadband and 5G projects across the EU.

At the level of individual member states, funding is still predominantly driven by public investment. In 2025, for example, Germany invested approximately €4 billion of public funds into digitalization, of which around €2.9 billion was allocated specifically to broadband expansion. The private sector complemented this with more than €10 billion invested in fiber and mobile network deployment.

Across the EU, member states have outlined measures in their digital roadmaps amounting to a cumulative volume of €288.6 billion. Approximately €205.1 billion of this total comes from public budgets, with the remainder attributed to private investments and co-financing by companies and regional actors. EU-level programs such as Digital Europe, CEF Digital, Horizon Europe, InvestEU, and the IPCEIs further supplement these national funds, targeting network and technology projects.

In comparison with the United States, a markedly different investment profile emerges. There, private capital dominates, with transaction volumes exceeding $200 billion in digital infrastructure. Public spending, particularly in research and development, amounted to around $145 billion, including significant allocations in defense and technology.

In the U.S., private enterprise is the primary driver of investment, whereas Europe traditionally relies on centralized planning and state involvement. What the Digital Networks Act can realistically achieve in terms of mobilizing additional private capital—given the extensive national efforts already underway—remains uncertain. From an economic perspective, little may change: Europe continues to be a difficult and heavily regulated environment in which investments are more complex and less flexible than in the United States.

EU-Wide Applicability and Affected Companies

The DNA will apply across the EU and directly affect telecommunications and infrastructure companies. In Germany, this primarily includes Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone Germany, and Telefónica Germany (O2), which operate extensive mobile and fixed-line networks and hold key spectrum licenses. Fiber-optic providers, regional network operators, and municipal utilities investing in high-speed network expansion will also fall under the new regulatory framework.

One positive aspect is that the DNA grants companies longer and more stable spectrum rights, improving planning security for investment decisions. However, it remains to be seen how transparency requirements, EU-mandated non-discrimination rules, and security provisions will be shaped in the subsequent regulatory process—and how the new EU compliance structure will function in practice.

From a consumer perspective, the expansion of 5G and fiber technology would ideally result in stable and reliable networks, particularly in Germany, where coverage gaps persist. Legal certainty for major network operators and investment incentives for infrastructure development benefit consumers, while smaller providers may also gain from more uniform market rules.

Opportunities and Risks for Competition and Innovation

The legislation fundamentally reshapes the framework for the EU’s digital infrastructure without immediately generating new costs—welcome news given strained public budgets. A unified European regulatory framework could reduce national uncertainties and eliminate cross-border discrepancies, potentially lowering transaction costs for companies.

However, the European Commission’s initiative under the DNA must be viewed with caution. Negotiations to date indicate that Brussels intends to retain the option of intervening in pricing structures, access obligations, and security requirements. This could lead to the emergence of a new bureaucracy that deeply interferes with investment processes, favoring large incumbents while effectively excluding new competitors from market entry.

Moreover, centralized coordination of spectrum at the EU level could restrict competition if existing market players benefit disproportionately from political proximity. It remains to be seen whether the regulatory framework will become a barrier to market access—or whether it will succeed in genuinely stimulating innovation within the EU economy.

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 02:00

The "BRICS Naval Drill" That Wasn't

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

South Africa allowed this false perception to spread as a symbolic act of defiance against Trump given his hatred of BRICS, whose members and partners were invited to this drill, and to signal to the domestic audience that their country has friends across the world amidst its tensions with the US.

Most folks have probably heard about the “BRICS naval drill” that recently took place in South African waters, which prompted a complaint from the US due to Iran’s participation. The South African Defense Minister had earlier defended the drill, to which all BRICS Plus countries were invited, as planned before the US’ seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker and aimed at ensuring safety on the high seas. All the while, the world was left with the impression that this was indeed a “BRICS naval drill”, which wasn’t true.

India chose not to participate and released a statement reading that “We clarify that the exercise in question was entirely a South African initiative in which some BRICS members took part. It was not a regular or institutionalised BRICS activity, nor did all BRICS members take part in it. India has not participated in previous such activities. The regular exercise that India is a part of in this context is the IBSAMAR maritime exercise that brings together the navies of India, Brazil and South Africa.”

Amidst the fake news about BRICS that’s been spread by Alt-Media, all of which centers on the false notion that it’s an allied bloc that assembled against the West, it’s understandable why many believed that this was a “BRICS naval drill”. India’s clarification that it wasn’t dispelled the perception that it’s distancing itself from the group, which is another falsehood peddled by Alt-Media, and reaffirmed that BRICS isn’t a security organization unlike what some of its enthusiasts hope that it one day becomes.

As for why India didn’t join the drill in which many of its BRICS Plus partners participated, it likely felt uncomfortable taking part in a non-obligatory exercise with China (unlike yearly SCO ones) amidst their unresolved border disputes and probably also didn’t want to risk angering the US given Trump’s hatred of BRICS. He’s been misled into thinking that its members are plotting to dethrone the dollar and consequently threatened tariffs against its members a year ago solely on that pretext.

He’s since imposed a 25% tariff on India for its purchase of Russian oil on top of the 25% “reciprocal” one that he earlier decreed for a total of 50% tariffs, however, and then threatened secondary ones for noncompliance with last fall’s energy-related sanctions against Russia. Any further tariffs upon India, regardless of the pretext, might have a noticeable effect on its economy and therefore the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. It’s therefore understandable why he’d want to avoid that.

South Africa is under US pressure just like India is, but officially over the Boer issue, though it was explained here how the US seeks to advance other interests on this pretext. The US also dislikes South Africa’s championing of the Palestinian cause and that it took Israel to the International Court of Justice over accusations of committing genocide during the recent war. Instead of playing it safe like India has and avoiding anything that could further provoke the US, South Africa organized the latest naval drill.

Only inviting its BRICS Plus partners might therefore have been meant as a symbolic act of defiance against Trump and to signal to the domestic audience that their country has friends across the world amidst its tensions with the US. That would explain why South Africa didn’t clarify that this wasn’t a “BRICS naval drill” and instead let that false perception spread to India’s chagrin. The reality is that no such “BRICS naval drill” was held and none might ever be organized due to the group’s economic focus.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 23:25

"Sleep Tight, America. We Got This": NatGas And Coal Power Plants Prevented Grid Collapse During Historic Winter Blast

Submitted by Criterion Research President James Bevan, 

Winter Storm Fern's Arctic blast from January 21-26 provided clear data on generation dispatch patterns during extreme cold weather events. The storm stressed multiple U.S. power grids, such as PJM and ERCOT and demonstrated the operational characteristics of different generation types under peak winter demand conditions.

As the cold rolled in - Criterion's pipeline data showed huge increases in deliveries to gas-fired power plants. That included dozens of active plants hitting all-time highs, along with a huge amount of peaking capacity firing online to help keep the grid stable.

We analyzed the top 20 interstate gas power meters by net change versus seven days ago to see what meter stations ramped up the most over that time.

Thirteen of the top 20 meters had zero or near-zero baselines 7 days ago, indicating these delivery points were barely being… pic.twitter.com/SMXwUtMu5L

— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 25, 2026

Gas & Coal Step Up Amidst High Demand

During peak demand periods in PJM - the nation's largest grid operator - thermal and nuclear generation dominated the dispatch stack. As the cold conditions arrived, natural gas provided 43% of generation and coal contributed 23%, while wind and solar fell to a combined 3-4% of the total fuel mix.

PJM wind levels fell to month-to-date lows over the weekend as load intensified, fading to a mere 2,142 MW on Saturday as gas burns ramped to 55,655 MW (a seasonal high).

Solar is already a limited part of the PJM fuel mix, and its output of 2,372 MW on Saturday had limited impacts vs thermal, and solar dropped even further yesterday, with output at a low of 442 MW.

In ERCOT, the grid maintained operating reserves above 11,000 MW throughout the event. The thousands of natural gas facilities that underwent weatherization and inspection protocols following Winter Storm Uri performed as designed, with minimal forced outages reported.

To meet peak load, ERCOT thermal assets have accelerated to record levels. That includes live readings of natural gas burns that surged to new 5YR highs in the morning - reaching 48,477 GW at one point.

Got Gas? ERCOT data showed gas burns pushing to record highs of >48 GW this morning to meet rising demand amidst a lack of wind and solar (its dark outside right now..)#natgas #ongt #ercot pic.twitter.com/8EtJfOwecr

— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 26, 2026

ERCOT coal burns lifted as well, nearing 10,400 MW early in the morning as peak load levels hit.

ERCOT wind and solar underperformed, falling well below the levels seen earlier this month. 

Forward Implications

The grid maintained an adequate supply-demand balance during this event due to existing thermal generation capacity. However, with data center load growth adding demand equivalent to major metropolitan areas and accelerating thermal retirements, winter reserve margins face increasing pressure in several regions.

The event highlights the case for incremental natural gas generation builds. With coal retirements reducing fuel-secure capacity and intermittent resources providing limited contribution during winter peaks, new gas-fired capacity will be essential to maintain reliability. Current interconnection queues show significant gas generation projects, but lead times for permitting and construction suggest a multi-year timeline to address emerging capacity deficits in key regions.

* * * 

A message from West Virginia coal miners... 

Sleep tight America. We got this. Thousands of coal miners, truck drivers, railroaders, river boat workers and power plant employees will make sure that you stay warm and safe on a cold winter night. Fuel Satisfaction. Affordable Power. Grid Reliability. All from American Coal. pic.twitter.com/io0dzRD6vu

— WV Coal Association (@WV_coal1) January 27, 2026

 "Affordable Power. Grid Reliability. All from American Coal," WV Coal Association wrote on X. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 21:45

Winter Storm Fern To Lower Q1 GDP By 0.5% To 1.5%

Winter storm Fern is mostly over, its resulting damage, however, will linger for a long time.

To assess the economic impact of the brutal winter storm, BofA chief economist Aditya Bhave looked back at Winter Storm Viola, which hit the US in February 2021. Both storms put roughly half the country under a winter weather advisory. Consumer spending fell by 0.9% m/m in February 2021, after a 1.3% increase in January. However, this swing probably wasn’t entirely due to Viola: January 2021 spending was also boosted by the passage of the CAA in December 2020, and favorable seasonal adjustments. 

In his analysis Bhave used the latest BofA aggregated credit and debit card data (report available to pro subs) to zoom in on the effect of Viola. Total card spending was down 3.7% y/y in the week ending February 19, 2021, compared to a trend of about +6% y/y in prior weeks.

Accounting for a pickup in card spending growth in the weeks after the storm, the BofA economist estimates that at least 0.6% of spending was lost over a one-month period due to Viola. That’s a little more than a quarter of the Jan-Feb swing in total consumer spending, and works out to about a 0.5% drag on Q1 2021 GDP growth.

The slowdown in total spending due to Viola might have been larger than the impact on BAC card spending, because cash transactions would most likely have taken a bigger hit. Moreover, some of the rebound in spending growth after Viola might have happened for other reasons. Finally, the bank's estimate above only looks at spending: other components of GDP would also have been affected by Viola.

Accounting for these factors, Bank of America thinks the headwind to Q1 2021 GDP growth from Viola might have been as large as 1.5%, which means that with strategist consensus expecting a roughly 1.5%-2% growth in Q1 before the winter storm, the US economy may be stagnant in the first quarter.

That said, the analogy isn't perfect as Viola caused significant damage in the South, with extended disruptions to the power grid in Texas. It now appears that Winter Storm Fern won’t be as disruptive, partly because the region is now better prepared. But Fern has resulted in a lot more snowfall in the Northeast, which has a larger concentration of higher-income HHs. So it isn’t clear whether Fern will cause more or less economic damage than Viola.

In any case, BofA's initial estimate is that the drag on Q1 2026 growth will be in the range of 0.5-1.5%.

The good news is that the bank does not expect any lasting impact on the trajectory of the economy. This means there is as much upside to 2Q GDP growth as there is downside to 1Q.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 21:20

The Fatal Limits Of The Technocrat Class

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Goliath dies not because collapse occurs, but because scale mistakes itself for life. What survives was never his.

This guest essay by longtime correspondent 0bserver speaks to a dynamic woven into all of my work: the intrinsic impossibility of fixing what technocratic management broke with more technocratic management. Attempts to do so result in doing more of what's failed, with fatal consequences for the systems being "fixed," as the technocratic elite holds the power to impose policies but is immune to the consequences of the failure of those policies. Those fall on the system, which then veers into incoherence and Model Collapse.

I've been reading Luke Kemp's Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse with care, because the book is serious, well-researched, and written from within institutions that spend their days thinking about systemic fragility. Kemp is not unserious, nor is he shallow. His diagnosis of elite failure, complexity, inequality, and institutional overreach aligns with much of what many of us have been warning about for years.

Where I think the book ultimately fails, however, is not in what it sees--but in what it cannot see from the altitude at which it operates.

Kemp's collapse framework is managerial. Collapse is treated as a system-level pathology to be prevented through coordination, governance, and institutional reform. This makes sense given his professional formation and affiliations, but it creates a blind spot that becomes more consequential the longer one reads: continuity is assumed, not explained.

The book speaks fluently about sustainability, inequality, elite capture, and long-term risk. Yet it does not seriously engage with inheritance--not inheritance as wealth alone, but inheritance as transmission: skills, trades, family structure, norms, fertility, competence, and responsibility carried forward across generations. Sustainability is framed as system stability rather than generational renewal.

This omission matters, because collapse is not the absence of order. It is the failure of particular scales of organization. When large institutions fail, life does not disappear--it reorganizes. The question is not whether systems can be stabilized indefinitely, but whether anything capable of inheritance remains when stabilization fails.

Luke Kemp is excellent at identifying fragility in centralized systems. He is far less interested in, or perhaps less equipped to examine, the base-rate reality that most societies muddle through breakdowns via informal order, households, and local competence. This is where pessimism overweights evidence. Failure is dramatic and legible; endurance is quiet and distributed.

Where this becomes decisive is in Kemp's proposed solutions.

When collapse looms, the remedies offered are more coordination, better governance, stronger institutions, improved global frameworks, and smarter management of risk. Complexity is to be handled by expertise; inequality by policy; instability by coordination. The scale that failed is asked to save itself.

This is the core problem.

The solutions operate at the same level as the failure.

Centralization is offered as the cure for overextension.

Governance is offered as the cure for institutional fragility.

Coordination is offered as the cure for complexity.

The very mechanisms meant to prevent collapse amplify its consequences when they fail.

Recent history supplies proof--not theory.

The financial collapse of 2008 rescued banks while households absorbed the loss. Large institutions were recapitalized immediately; families lost homes, savings, and years of accumulated effort. Recovery was declared long before household continuity returned.

The pandemic reinforced the same pattern. Large corporations were deemed essential, while small and local businesses were declared nonessential and shuttered. Compliance favored scale; capital consolidated upward; independent capacity quietly disappeared.

A third proof is now unfolding without crisis declarations. Large banks continue to grow while private equity consolidates trades and local services--plumbing, HVAC, electrical, veterinary clinics, small manufacturing. Businesses are bought, debt-loaded, stripped, and optimized for extraction. Ownership disappears, stewardship evaporates, and nothing is left to inherit when failure arrives.

These outcomes are not policy accidents.

They are the predictable result of scale-first solutions.

Systems are stabilized.

Households are tested.

Continuity bears the cost.

What troubles me most is that Goliath's Curse critiques elites and inequality while failing to recognize how insulated analysis itself has become. Collapse expertise that cannot be lived becomes abstract. Risk is modeled without skin in the game. Moral urgency is asserted without moral grounding. The book makes moral claims--about obligation, responsibility, and injustice--without ever naming the source of those obligations.

This creates a quiet contradiction. Moral language is necessary to motivate coordination, but moral foundations are left ambiguous to preserve managerial flexibility. In the absence of grounding, obligation eventually collapses into power.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has a name for one failure mode here: the intellectual yet idiot--not stupid, not malicious, but insulated from consequence. I don't think Luke Kemp himself is the target. The framework is. Collapse theory that remains legible only to institutions will always propose institutional solutions, even when the problem has already migrated below that level.

The real threat is not collapse per se. Systems rise and fall. The real threat is the dissolution of the family and the erosion of inheritance.

Institutions can be recapitalized. Markets can reprice. States can fragment and re-form. Families cannot be substituted.

When families fail to reproduce competence, culture, and responsibility across generations, nothing downstream inherits. What follows is not collapse but vacancy.

Goliath dies not because collapse occurs, but because scale mistakes itself for life. What survives was never his.

That is the argument I think Goliath's Curse gestures toward but cannot complete from where it stands. The book diagnoses fragility well. It does not yet explain endurance.

And in the end, endurance--not prevention--is what decides the future.

This is a guest essay by longtime correspondent 0bserver.

CHS here: note that the global technocrat elite follows a power law distribution in where they attended university:

...and the power they wield in markets and institutions:

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)

Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 19:15

IRGC Has 'Finger On The Trigger' As US Carrier Strike Group Enters Waters Near Iran

The US Navy's aircraft carrier strike group USS Abraham Lincoln has arrived in the Middle East, this week entering CENTCOM waters in the Indian Ocean, and is awaiting orders

Fox correspondent Jennifer Griffin cites a senior American official who said the carrier is not yet on station for any possible future strikes against Iran, however.

via AFP

The same outlet has further reported, "U.S. officials say Washington is reinforcing its military posture in response to growing instability inside Iran, boosting its presence by air, land and sea, while closely monitoring developments in Syria."

"A squadron of F-15 fighter jets has deployed to the region, and C-17 aircraft carrying heavy equipment have arrived," Fox adds.

This all comes after President Trump's apparent climb-down after threatening military intervention against Tehran in the wake of large deadly protests which rocked the Islamic Republic early this month, amid an internet blackout.

But Trump has put Iran on notice, despite that Iranian streets have been clear of unrest for well over a week at this point. He said on Thursday he has ordered a "massive fleet" to be sent toward Iran "just in case" he wants to take action - although he underscored that "maybe we won't have to use it." 

Just in terms of the strike group, this includes the following advanced assets:

The strike group is comprised of the Lincoln, an aircraft carrier, and three guided missile destroyers: the USS Frank E. Petersen, Jr., the USS Spruance and the USS Michael Murphy. On board the Lincoln are squadrons of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, F-35C fighter jets and MH-60R/S helicopters.

The naval force was not necessarily "on station" as of Monday morning Eastern Time, meaning it was not in its intended ultimate position.

This is being taken seriously by Tehran leaders given the month kicked off with a shock US military intervention in Caracas - which was actually among Iran's few Latin American allies - to overthrow longtime socialist leader Nicolás Maduro.

State affiliated Nournews, which is close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, reported on its Telegram channel that Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned the US and Israel "to avoid any miscalculation."

"The Islamic Revolutionary Guards and dear Iran stand more ready than ever, finger on the trigger, to execute the orders and directives of the Commander-in-Chief," Pakpour stated.

LATEST: Map shows the scale of the U.S. military buildup around Iran.

Fighter jets, tankers, AWACS, and carrier air wings positioned across Europe and the Middle East.

Source: DefenceGeek pic.twitter.com/PbDV6O62aD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 25, 2026

Iran's military capability is nowhere close to being on par with the US; however, it does have a feared and sophisticated ballistic missile program, and has mass quantities of drones, which could threaten a carrier group through potential 'drone swarm' attacks, aimed at overwhelming naval defenses.

Cameron Chell, CEO and co-founder of drone technology firm Draganfly, has been widely quoted in various media outlets this week as explaining, "If hundreds are launched in a short period of time, some are almost certain to get through," and added: "These drones give Iran a very credible way to threaten surface vessels."

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 18:50

Ignoring Geopolitical Risk?

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The increase in the global geopolitical risk index has not affected global markets.

The general tone remains bullish despite a surprising “neutral” view shown in CNN’s Fear and Greed Index.

The reality is completely different.

Investors may say they are neutral given the elevated valuations and the global uncertainty, but most asset managers’ positioning is exceedingly bullish and concentrated on very cyclical sectors like banks and technology.

The main reason for this striking contrast between explicit concerns and positioning is a clear consensus of central bank easing as the norm.

Global money supply is expected to grow much faster than nominal GDP in 2026, what I call the monetary tsunami.

Investors should not ignore geopolitical risks and the evident impoverishment of middle classes due to inflationist policies that we have commented on in this column a few times.

Inflating financial asset prices while eroding the real value of fiat currencies generates social discontent, weaker productive investment, and a dangerous sentiment of confidence.

Gold soars as government bonds lose appeal

Risk accumulates gradually but can manifest suddenly, and the current environment is characterised by a perilous sovereign debt bubble that coincides with a decrease in global central banks’ demand for bonds from developed economies.

That is why gold soars. Demand for gold is rising while appetite for government bonds declines.

Global broad money is probably going to rise well above nominal output, with overall money supply growth projected to exceed 12% in 2026 while global GDP stalls around 3–3.1%, far below pre-2008 norms.

Furthermore, global capital investment is likely to be flat relative to depreciation in 2026. This enormous difference between liquidity and real activity reflects years of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, with out-of-control deficits and bloated public balance sheets still driving central bank behaviour.

In Europe, the challenging political and fiscal situation, particularly in countries such as France, makes it very difficult for the ECB to normalise

According to JP Morgan, US money supply (M2) rose by 1.7 trillion dollars in 2025, growing at 6.6% and above nominal GDP for a third consecutive year.

This creates a risk of persistent inflation and elevated valuations in financial assets. Even if consumer prices rise at a slower pace than in previous years, the risk of loss of purchasing power remains.

For 2026, JP Morgan expects US money creation to exceed 2 trillion dollars, approaching the 2021 pace, as new liquidity channels—especially Federal Reserve T-bill purchases—replace quantitative tightening and extend the monetary stimulus cycle.

In 2026 the Federal Reserve is likely to remain accommodative, bringing real rates down towards a neutral level and even maybe adding a potential “mini–Quantitative Easing” or hidden easing program of roughly 20 billion dollars a month in Treasury purchases and mortgage-backed securities.

In Europe, the challenging political and fiscal situation, particularly in countries such as France, makes it very difficult for the ECB to normalise, forcing it to persist with instruments such as the anti-fragmentation tools and the monetisation of EU funds as well as a larger EU budget.

Resisting the negative impact of inflation

The reason why investors remain bullish is also because recent years’ events have shown that geopolitical risk plays a diminishing role in market volatility.

However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical risk do impact economic growth, investment, and consumer spending, which results in lower forecasts for economic output, reduced earnings estimates for companies that are more sensitive to the economy and keeps valuations at uncomfortable levels.

Global inflation is expected to moderate but remain above pre-pandemic levels around 3%, with developed economies still above their 2% targets because governments refuse to cut spending or deficits, so CPI stays “artificially” high relative to where it should be and underlying growth.

This leads to social discontent and rising populist measures in developed nations, while protests may bring more unrest in countries like Iran.

The situation never ends well. Central banks stopped being independent years ago, and their main strategy is to maintain unjustified low yields in sovereign bonds at the expense of consumers, who suffer the accumulated impact of inflation and rising taxes.

Ignoring geopolitical risks may lead to more aggressive investment in financial assets than would be advisable. However, too much fear leads to real losses for investors who decide to stay in cash and therefore suffer the annual erosion of the purchasing power of the currency.

What to do then?

Active portfolio management, prudent positioning, and a focus on gold, silver, and developed economies’ equities may help investors resist the negative impact of inflation and avoid the risks accumulated due to political uncertainty.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 18:25

Appeals Court Denies DOJ's Bid To Arrest More Minnesota Church Protesters

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Late last week, a federal appeals court denied the Justice Department’s (DOJ’s) request to arrest more individuals involved in an anti-ICE protest that occurred inside a church in Minnesota earlier this month.

Protesters disrupted a Sunday service at Cities Church in St. Paul on Jan. 18, chanting phrases such as “Justice for Renee Good,” following claims that one of the church pastors serves as the acting field office director for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Minnesota. Several people were arrested on Jan. 22 for allegedly organizing the protest.

The Eighth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Jan. 23 rejected the DOJ’s emergency petition for a writ of mandamus after Minnesota Chief District Judge Patrick Schiltz refused to issue five more arrest warrants related to the protest.

In a Jan. 23 letter to the appeals court, Schiltz said the DOJ had requested arrest warrants for eight people on Jan. 20, but Magistrate Judge Douglas Micko issued warrants for only three, finding no probable cause to arrest the remaining five.

The five individuals allegedly entered the church and yelled “horrible things at the members of the church” but committed no violence, according to the judge’s letter.

“It is important to emphasize that what the U.S. Attorney requested is unheard of in our district or, as best as I can tell, any other district in the Eighth Circuit,” Schiltz said, referring to the DOJ’s request to review Micko’s denial of arrest warrants.

“The reason why this never happens is likely that, if the government does not like the magistrate judge’s decision, it can either improve the affidavit and present it again to the same magistrate judge or it can present its case to a grand jury and seek an indictment,” the judge added.

The DOJ said that arresting the five individuals was necessary to deter potential “copycats” from disrupting churches, synagogues, and religious services. Schiltz disagreed.

“The leaders of the group have been arrested, and their arrests have received widespread publicity. There is absolutely no emergency,” Schiltz said, suggesting that the DOJ could instead take its case to a grand jury.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the DOJ for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Among the five individuals for whom the DOJ sought arrest warrants is former CNN journalist turned YouTuber Don Lemon, who livestreamed the protest on social media.

Lemon’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, said in a statement on Jan. 23 that the magistrate’s actions “confirm the nature of Don’s First Amendment protected work this weekend in Minnesota as a reporter.”

“Should the Department of Justice continue with a stunning and troubling effort to silence and punish a journalist for doing his job, Don will call out their latest attack on the rule of law and fight any charges vigorously and thoroughly in court,” Lowell said.

Harmeet Dhillon, the DOJ’s assistant attorney general for civil rights, posted on X on Jan. 18 that a house of worship is not a public forum for protest.

“It is a space protected from exactly such acts by federal criminal and civil laws,” Dhillon said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 17:40

Tehran Cheers US Unrest, Calls Minneapolis Protests 'Instant Karma'

Iran's state media has blasted the Trump administration as hypocritical, drawing a direct comparison between the recent protests inside the Islamic Republic and the ongoing unrest ignited by the controversial ICE shootings in Minneapolis.

Iran has seized on the latest fatal shooting of Alex Prettio, arguing that President Trump has no moral standing to condemn how Iranian authorities have handled its own nationwide demonstrations, which were triggered by economic strain and a collapsing currency after years of US-imposed sanctions.

State-backed Press TV pointed to Trump's earlier public call for Iranians to rise up and take to the streets while pointing to the current Minneapolis demonstrations as "instant karma".

Getty Images/BBC

Newsweek observed several fresh broadcasts from Iranian outlets drawing on the comparison:

While these protests were largely peaceful, Iranian state news channel Press TV dedicated a segment in which it presented them as the latest iteration of the anger at the actions of ICE.

The presenter on Press TV, Roya Pour Bagher, referred to social media posts by Americans expressing outrage at the killing, and described "growing fears of an imminent civil conflict—yes a civil war in the United States."  

In a separate clip, Bagher said that footage of Pretti’s killing clearly showed he did not pose a threat to anyone, adding that more protests could help stop the killings. 

This has been the theme across pro-Tehran social media as well:

Iran’s state TV channel Press TV: "Calls on social media demanding Trump’s removal before the US is pushed into the unknown are growing louder, as crimes by ICE against civilians continue to rise." 

Iranian outlet Press TV: "Instant karma? Trump: Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING—TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!"

There's actually some truth here in the way US officials and media portray things whenever there's a protest inside Iran, or any nation deemed a 'rogue' state for that matter: all demonstrations no matter how small or varied in terms of the protesters' actual motives tend to get treated as somehow "pro-Western democracy" in nature, or else as if the "regime" is always on the brink of collapse.

And then there are always the familiar calls by American politicians and pundits of the 'Ayatollah must go' or this or that dictator must go. Western mainstream media is also notorious for grossly oversimplifying complex dynamics behind foreign events and protest movements.

Tehran officials and state media have also of late been saying the Iranian protests that kicked off on December 27, but which last week finally ended, were quickly "hijacked" by foreign powers and interests. For example the below fresh PressTV commentary says:

In an interview with the Press TV website, Nury Vittachi, a Hong Kong-based journalist, author, and political commentator, said the deadly unrest and acts of terrorism in Iran in recent weeks bore the unmistakable signs of a coordinated campaign orchestrated by the United States and Israel.

“There is no doubt that there was heavy involvement from foreign forces during the riots. I have seen this same procedure in many locations,” he stated.

A protest light display was projected onto an ICE detention center in Los Angeles, California, depicting an ICE officer shooting at humanity, democracy, rights, and freedoms.

Follow: https://t.co/7Dg3b41hTx pic.twitter.com/cdwoCEv631

— PressTV Extra (@PresstvExtra) January 26, 2026

Thousands were killed, among them at least dozens or possibly even hundreds of police, security personnel, and pro-government people. But the majority of casualties were clearly on the anti-government side, as even Iran state sources have lately appeared to admit.

The West accuses Iran of often firing on unarmed protesters, while the Islamic Republic has retorted that there was an armed insurrection in tandem with those who went to the streets peacefully - creating a more murky, complex series of bloody clashes with the police and military.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 17:20

A Year After Pardons, Freed January 6 Prisoners Tell Their Stories

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A year ago, President Donald Trump pardoned nearly 1,600 people for “offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021.”

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times, Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times, Nathaniel Smith for The Epoch Times, Natasha Holt for The Epoch Times, Leo Shi/The Epoch Times

That decision to issue the blanket pardon, in one of his first official acts as the 47th president, ignited controversy. It covered not only people who strolled through open doors of the U.S. Capitol, unaware they were trespassing, but also rioters who damaged property and assaulted police.

After the initial public backlash subsided, the pardoned—many of them newly freed from prison—began rebuilding their lives.

The Epoch Times interviewed five of those former Jan. 6 prisoners. Their consensus: Jan. 6 is one of the most-mischaracterized events in U.S. history, largely because records—and personal stories like theirs—have been ignored by most media outlets. They say the pardon was not a panacea. Some are still ostracized from friends and family. Others are still recovering from the financial setbacks.

All five believe they’ve been unjustly prosecuted and none say they regret their actions. Rather, the pardoned said they were proud to have stood up for the integrity of U.S. elections, Trump, and American values on that fateful day—despite the great cost.

Micki Witthoeft, mother of Ashli Babbitt, waits outside the DC Central Detention Facility after President Donald Trump pardoned roughly 1,500 Jan. 6 defendants, in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Babbitt, a Trump supporter, was the only person killed, by a police officer, during the Jan. 6 conflict. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times Twists of Fate

As Dan Leyden, 58, struggles to regroup after his wife died of cancer late last year, he remains in disbelief over the life-changing events that preceded that horrible loss.

Circumstances lined up and thrust him—a low-profile union electrician from Chicago—into the forefront of the Jan. 6 conflict in 2021.

At the last minute, he had decided to join his brother in Washington to watch “our favorite president” speak, possibly delivering his final big public speech as the 45th president.

But the brothers got separated from each other.

“Then I don’t see that speech, because the man next to me says, ‘Dan, would you walk with me to the Capitol?’ So I walked to the Capitol,” Leyden said, “And, from there, my life has turned upside-down.”

While he doesn’t want pity, Leyden—who injects many of his remarks with wry humor—used the word, “heartbroken,” to describe losses he has suffered.

First, his prosecution cost him the Chicago Park District job he had worked without a single complaint for 24 years.

Also, while beginning to serve a prison sentence that would have spanned three years, Leyden missed the birth of his first grandchild—“a gorgeous baby girl” who he now enjoys visiting.

Days after an overjoyed Leyden was pardoned and freed, he plunged into sorrow over the shooting death of Matt Huttle, 42, a Jan. 6 prisoner who became his friend while they served time in prison together. Stopped for speeding in rural Indiana, Huttle threatened to kill himself rather than face life behind bars again. As Huttle resisted arrest, an officer fatally shot him.

Worst of all, Leyden lost his wife of 27 years to cancer on Dec. 29 last year. That illness, which stress has been known to trigger, hit Linda Leyden shortly after her husband was freed. His incarceration had kept them apart for 15 months.

Dan Leyden, 58, at his home in Chicago on Jan. 13, 2026. A low-profile union electrician, Leyden lost his 24-year career at the Chicago Park District due to the Jan. 6 prosecution while mourning the recent loss of his wife to cancer. Nathaniel Smith for The Epoch Times

Leyden said his wife was known for her compassion. It was her idea to adopt two daughters from a Russian orphanage; they are now grown.

A lively woman, his wife ran marathons in major cities across the United States and as far away as South Africa before she died at 62.

Despite mourning her death, Leyden jokes about their contrasting lifestyles: “I don’t run unless somebody’s chasing me—and the FBI hasn’t been chasing me lately.”

With sarcasm, he disputes a label he and other defendants were given. “I was a very poorly trained ‘domestic terrorist,’” Leyden says, noting he showed up for the wintertime protest wearing a lightweight green flannel shirt over a T-shirt, and “cheap mittens from Walmart.”

Trump was scheduled to speak at The Ellipse, a park about two miles from Capitol Hill, following a series of other presenters.

But the speeches were hard to hear above the din of the crowd, broadcast over poor-quality loudspeakers.

And Leyden was shivering. It was windy; temperatures hovered in the 30s.

Unable to find his brother, Leyden headed toward the U.S. Capitol, hoping the walk would help him feel warmer.

After arriving at the U.S. Capitol, Leyden noted insufficient security; he ended up near a bike rack that functioned as a barricade. Photos show that Leyden was “pushing the barricade,” prosecutors said in a court record.

That’s a misrepresentation, Leyden said: “Did I lean on a bicycle rack? Yeah, I’m guilty.”

About 17 months later, the FBI descended upon his Illinois home. His wife was home alone with the family pets; she was terrified.

Leyden soon surrendered. He faced 29 years in prison, even though he never went inside the U.S. Capitol; neither did his brother, Joe, who was sentenced to six months.

Leyden’s wife urged him to take a plea, saying, “Can we get this nightmare over with?” His legal battle had cost $30,000, wiping out his savings, though he is not in debt.

Now after a year of freedom, he is awash in grief. He doesn’t know what direction his life will take. “I just wanna go walk my dog at the park; my best friend of 29 years is gone,” he said.

Spiritually, he has never given up. Leyden said he was “just knocked to the curb [and] got back up.” He is beginning to feel less ostracized and hopes to go back to union electrical work.

Many people’s lives have been devastated, too, he said, “all because of one day” that remains shrouded in questions.

“The American people deserve the truth,” he said. And that, he said, is worth fighting for.

Flowers and cards Dan Leyden received after his wife’s passing at his home in Chicago on Jan. 13, 2026. Nathaniel Smith for The Epoch Times Grateful, But Wants More Action

Like many former Jan. 6 defendants, Alexander Sheppard hoped that being pardoned would go a long way toward clearing his name.

It didn’t.

Many people still treat the ex-defendants “like we are totally inhuman,” Sheppard, an Ohioan, said.

Another once-maligned group has consistently shown respect. “I’ve had Vietnam veterans tell me: ‘Thank you for your service.’ It’s mind-blowing,” Sheppard said.

Also, people of faith have demonstrated compassion. “A lot of Christians have been praying for the Jan. 6 people,” Sheppard said. “I appreciate that more than anything.”

With those notable exceptions, Sheppard still feels ostracized. He blames “the mainstream media” for falsely labeling nonviolent people like him “insurrectionists.”

On Jan. 6, 2021, Sheppard was 21 and had just started his own company. His prosecution forced him to return to restaurant work; he shares living expenses with his brother. He recently quit the restaurant job in search of a better opportunity.

Sheppard made a last-minute decision to attend the Jan. 6 rally, mostly because he opposed COVID-19 restrictions and believed that the 2020 election was stolen.

He was among many who entered the U.S. Capitol through open doors—unaware that they were trespassing.

Fatefully, Sheppard happened to be nearby when a police officer fatally shot Trump supporter Ashli Babbitt—unwittingly making him far more noticeable.

Sheppard would like to put Jan. 6 behind him. But “another part of me is saying, ‘We can’t move on because the people who did this to me are the criminals,’” who should be held to account.

Alexander Sheppard in Columbus, Ohio, on Jan. 28, 2025. Sheppard said many former Jan. 6 defendants, including himself, have since struggled to find employment. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Sheppard believes the FBI and Justice Department should apologize and pay restitution, calling for federal trials to be televised to prevent unjust tactics from being used without scrutiny.

People would be stunned to learn what really happened during trials like his, he said. Not a single Republican sat on his jury in Democrat-dominated Washington, D.C.

Prosecutors presented five witnesses against him, and “every single one of them said they didn’t know me,” except for the FBI agent who tracked him down after Jan. 6, he said.

“There’s no victim to my ‘crime’ and there’s no witnesses—and somehow, I get convicted.”

Investigators never asked him about the fatal shooting of Babbitt—which Sheppard witnessed from about 10 feet away. U.S. Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd fired the fatal shot and faced no criminal charges.

Babbitt, a stranger to Sheppard, was shot as she attempted to climb through the broken window in a doorframe.

Although the presidential pardon didn’t produce the reputational boost Sheppard had hoped for, “I’m so grateful for the pardon; I’m so grateful that President Trump included every January Sixer.”

Because of a court ruling involving Jan. 6 prosecutions, a judge reduced Sheppard’s 19-month prison term to six months. Thus, he was released in May 2024. Still, he benefited from the pardon in January 2025; it restored his unblemished criminal record and removed restrictions he had faced.

Although he was represented by a public defender, Sheppard took a financial hit after the arrest and the ensuing prosecution.

“I am not completely broke because I have been working a job and keeping expenses relatively low, but I would have a lot more money if I didn’t endure four years of persecution from the federal government,” Shepard said.

He feels there is much unfinished business about Jan. 6.

“We need accountability for FBI agents and prosecutors and judges who let this go down, because, in my opinion, what they did to us January Sixers is … one of the worst human rights abuses and biggest stains on our country’s history,” Sheppard said.

A Christmas card sent to Alexander Sheppard while he was in prison in Illinois from a supporter in Poland, in Columbus, Ohio, on Jan. 28, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times Curiosity Drove Him

On an early February morning in 2021, in Tampa, Florida, Paul Hodgkins III awakened to the sound he had been dreading: an insistent, loud banging on his front door.

He knew the FBI had caught up with him for entering the Senate chamber of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, six weeks prior.

Wearing only a towel around his waist, Hodgkins opened the door. An officer yelled for him to put his hands up. Hodgkins tried to comply while also attempting to keep the towel in place with his elbows.

“But he handcuffed me behind my back, and left me standing naked in my living room when they all came barreling in,” Hodgkins said, describing the humiliating circumstances of his arrest at his duplex.

At that moment, Hodgkins felt the weight of the federal government crushing him—later reinforced when he saw the words, “The United States of America vs. Paul Hodgkins” on legal paperwork.

Hodgkins, who had no prior criminal record, also gained unwanted notoriety that summer when he became “the very, very first person who was sentenced to prison” for the events of Jan. 6.

At a lawyer’s urging, he pleaded guilty to a single charge and was sentenced to eight months in prison.

Being the first-sentenced defendant “put all eyes on me,” Hodgkins said, describing “a lot of paparazzi” taking his photo at a Washington courthouse. Photographers from a publication based in the U.K. also staked out his neighborhood and snapped pictures of him.

Paul Hodgkins III returns to a Raymond James Stadium parking lot, where he had worked crowd control during a 2020 Trump rally, in Tampa, Fla., on Jan. 13, 2026. Hodgkins, who had no prior criminal record, gained notoriety as the first person sentenced to prison over the events of Jan. 6, 2021. Natasha Holt for The Epoch Times

Hodgkins made a last-minute decision to catch a chartered bus trip to Washington for Trump’s rally on Jan. 6, 2021, spurred by fellow Trump supporters.

After hearing Trump’s speech, Hodgkins followed the crowd to the U.S. Capitol.

Curiosity drove him around to the rear of the Capitol building, and before he knew what had happened, he was inside the Senate Chamber, thinking he might be able to see some of the senators and “encourage them to audit this election.” He didn’t know they had been evacuated because the U.S. Capitol was breached.

At the time, he realized he might be “crossing somewhat of a line,” but thought that, at most, he could face a minor charge such as disorderly conduct.

“I didn’t think I would be getting slapped with felonies and prison time, right?” As he left the Capitol building, an uneasy feeling stalked him, especially after he learned about the shooting death of Babbitt.

Now 43, Hodgkins was among those who paid respects to Babbitt at a memorial service on the anniversary of Jan. 6 this year. He has gotten to know Babbitt’s mother, and still has a hard time watching any footage of the shooting.

Paul Hodgkins III clutches flowers honoring slain protester Ashli Babbitt on the fifth anniversary of her death in Washington on Jan. 6, 2026. Courtesy of Paul Hodgkins III

Besides losing his freedom, Hodgkins’ prosecution cost him his job, but he has been able to find another good job at a machine-motor service shop. He has “plenty of haters” online and has lost friendships over his Jan. 6 involvement.

“And, financially, yes, I was set back a lot by case, but I got back to work, recovered, and marched on. I work, and live comfortably on my own,” Hodgkins said. “I didn’t like my life being so damaged from it all, but I also take pride in how I survived and built my life back.”

Still, he says, “I do not regret that I stood up for President Trump at that time. I don’t regret standing up for my country when I know we were being wronged. I still to this day, I know for myself that the 2020 election was compromised, and I don’t regret confronting that.”

When Hodgkins briefly met Trump at a 2023 dinner, he got the notion that a pardon might follow if Trump won a second term in office. “It was a prayer answered” when the pardon came, clearing Hodgkins’ conviction. It is now framed and on display in his home alongside other Trump memorabilia.

He thinks the pardon will help his career aspirations. “And I’m hoping, you know, before I’m too old to do it, that I might find a wife and start a family. ... Whether that does happen for me or not, you know, I have a very, I have a very blessed life.”

Paul Hodgkins III stands in front of a portrait of President Donald Trump during a St. Patrick’s Day Lincoln Day Dinner at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. Ex-New York Officer Conflicted

Being pardoned delivered sweet freedom. But for Sara Carpenter, it also left a bitter aftertaste. She believes the pardon signifies that she was absolved of crimes that she didn’t commit.

“My pardon looks great on paper,” Carpenter said. “And then I say, ‘Wait a minute. It should never have happened to begin with.’”

While she is grateful that the pardon led to her release about midway through a 22-month prison term, Carpenter had filed an appeal. She was hoping to have her convictions overturned, and “that’s why I didn’t want the pardon, in a sense,” she said.

She knows of other pardoned defendants who feel similarly conflicted. Like many of the pardoned, Carpenter alleges she was convicted in an unfair trial based largely on falsehoods.

“I didn’t get tried by a judge and jury,” she said. “I got tried by political activists.”

Carpenter was convicted of two felonies—civil disorder and obstruction of an official proceeding—and five misdemeanors.

As a retired New York City police officer, Carpenter was particularly offended when the Justice Department alleged she “slapped” officers’ arms.

She has publicly challenged anyone to produce a video proving that claim; none has surfaced, she said.

Carpenter, 56, admits she got riled up; she perceived police were stoking unrest, not quelling it. But she says her actions weren’t criminal.

“I don’t regret what I did,” she said. “I yelled. I raised my voice.”

As an officer who responded to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York City, Carpenter suffered lingering trauma that led to her retirement. It also affected her reactions on Jan. 6, she said; a suspected provocateur inflamed her when he compared Jan. 6 to 9/11.

Sara Carpenter, an artist and retired New York City police officer, holds one of her paintings in New York City on Jan. 14, 2026. Though a presidential pardon granted her freedom, Carpenter said it came with a bitter aftertaste—being absolved of crimes she says she never committed. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Investigators initially treated Carpenter with some deference, she said. Dozens of Jan. 6 defendants worked in law enforcement, government, or military roles.

However, professional courtesies soon evaporated, Carpenter said. In March 2021, authorities raided her New York home, with a helicopter circling above.

Post-pardon, Carpenter, a college-educated artist, is producing artwork “that brings out hope.” With encouragement from others who share “America First” beliefs, Carpenter also does public speaking about Jan. 6.

“The reason I keep talking is so they won’t get away with it,” Carpenter said, alleging unjust persecution of Jan. 6 defendants and coverups of evidence. “The truth is there. People are choosing not to see it.”

She would like to see history courses teach a balanced view of Jan. 6, so children become critical thinkers and evaluate “both sides of a story, not just one.”

Carpenter said her side of the story wasn’t adequately told in court. While prosecutors showed images of her yelling, they didn’t show her praying at the U.S. Capitol, said Carpenter, who comes from a devout Irish Catholic family.

An item of religious significance was used as evidence against her: A trio of wise men figurines. “The three wise men are still being held hostage,” said Carpenter, who has made multiple requests for her personal property to be returned.

The figurines are antiques from her childhood Christmas displays, but where they are now is a mystery. Prosecutors presented them on the witness stand during her 2023 trial—an odd sight that dumbfounded her.

Carpenter says she likely took the figurines to the U.S. Capitol because Jan. 6 is the traditional date that the Vatican celebrates the Epiphany, the three kings’ adoration of the newborn Jesus.

The government’s use and retention of the figurines serve as a metaphor for many things about Jan. 6 that “make no sense,” she said.

“God was with me all the way and still is, because of my relationship with the Good Lord Jesus I have hope in the future,” Carpenter said. “My prayers are with those who did this to us and for Americans to speak up more to not accept being lied to by the past administrations, almost all of whom still hold positions in our government.”

An ornament of the Three Wise Men made by Sara Carpenter at her home in New York City on Jan. 14, 2026. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times The Lego Model

The FBI unwittingly created an internet sensation when agents seized an odd piece of evidence from the Pennsylvania home of Robert Morss: a Lego model of the U.S. Capitol.

Last June, on the four-year anniversary of his arrest, Morss received the Lego box back—empty.

“I think someone has a trophy on their desk somewhere in some federal building, perhaps … but, yeah, the legend continues, you know?” Morss said.

Even though the Lego set remains missing, Morss has embraced his internet-birthed nickname, “Lego Man.” For him, it has become symbolic of his rebuilt, post-Jan. 6 life.

Authorities accused Morss of interfering with police and assisting others in doing so, among other actions on Jan. 6.

Had he not been pardoned in 2025, Morss would have spent five-and-a-half years in prison.

He chronicles his three-and-a-half years behind bars in a new, 565-page book, “Still There: A Story of Survival and Penance in Prison Through the Eyes of a J6 Political Prisoner.”

Besides writing and publishing two books, Morss quit drinking alcohol. He strengthened his Christian faith. He became a public speaker. During one speaking engagement in Florida, he met the woman he intends to marry in April, Olivia Pollock, a fellow former Jan. 6 defendant.

“We realize just how profound it is to have a connection with somebody that has also suffered in a very similar way,” Morss, 32, said. “You know, who else could I be with that could relate to what I’ve gone through?”

It’s essential for people to continue speaking out about what happened on Jan. 6, he said, because “justice dies in the quiet.”

Robert Morss, CEO of LeggoMan Productions, poses with a set of Legos and his Bible in Dallas, Texas, on Jan. 13, 2026. A Lego model of the U.S. Capitol seized from Morss’s home was used as evidence in his prosecution, later earning him the internet nickname “Lego Man.” Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times

Using a variant of his “Lego Man” nickname, Morss has launched his own film production company in Texas.

LeggoMan Productions aims to create “movies that reinvigorate the next generation to want to keep this Republic,” Morss said. Although the films will be “gritty,” the stories will be told from a Christian perspective, he said.

Noting that the word, “Lego,” means “I assemble” in Latin, Morss says that sums up what he wants to do: “Assemble” people into a cohesive group. His company is growing, and he expects to hire additional staff—opportunities he wants to provide first to Jan. 6 defendants and veterans.

He is a former Army Ranger who served three deployments to Afghanistan. In addition to the Lego model, authorities seized military-related items and notes, along with clothing Morss wore to the Jan. 6 protest.

In court records, prosecutors described the Lego model as “fully constructed” when the FBI seized it. The government later corrected the record, blaming a “miscommunication” for the inaccurate description.

By listing the model of the U.S. Capitol as evidence, that suggests it could have played a role in Morss’s alleged Jan. 6 planning. Morss and internet commenters savaged that notion as preposterous.

Morss explains why a former girlfriend bought him the U.S. Capitol model: “She knew I was a history buff, and she knew I wanted to be a teacher, and she also knew that I loved Legos.” He propped up the box as a “decoration” at his home, until it was seized.

At a recent fundraising gala, Morss auctioned off other Lego U.S. Capitol models to benefit his production company. “Everybody wants one,” he said; and purchasers asked him to autograph the boxes.

Yet some of the pieces of his life can’t be put back together. His father and brother turned their backs on him. His uncle worked with private investigators to help turn him in to the FBI.

And despite the book sales and speaking engagements, he is still struggling financially.

None of the positive changes in his life would have happened without his faith, he said.

“The only way that I’ve been successful at any of this stuff is because I continue to give glory to God,” Morss said. “It’s like a secret recipe: The more you want to honor God with what you’re doing, the more you incorporate God into your life ... things just seem to work out.”

He advises his Jan. 6 brethren: “Find a new mission that honors God and saves your country, and you'll be okay.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 17:00

In Secret Recordings, Ted Cruz Bashes Trump Tariffs, JD Vance, And Tucker Carlson

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) took aim at President Trump's tariff policy and Vice President JD Vance during closed-door donor meetings last year, according to recordings obtained by Axios. The recordings reveal deep rifts inside the GOP over trade and foreign policy. 

Credit: AP

The recordings, totaling nearly 10 minutes, were provided by a Republican source and were made during two donor sessions in early and mid-2025.

In the recordings, Cruz repeatedly singled out JD Vance and Tucker Carlson, accusing them of driving an anti-interventionist foreign policy inside the Trump administration. Cruz claimed the two were responsible for pushing out former national security adviser Mike Waltz because he supported military action against Iran, even though Trump later embraced that approach.

"Tucker created JD. JD is Tucker's protégé, and they are one and the same," Cruz told donors. He has been feuding publicly with Carlson on social media for months. 

Cruz also said Vance and Carlson played a role in briefly installing Army veteran Daniel Davis in a senior intelligence position. Cruz described Davis as fiercely hostile to Israel and said their involvement triggered backlash that ultimately led to Davis being forced out.

In the second recording, Cruz recounted a tense late-night phone call with Trump after the president rolled out his tariff plan in early April 2025. Cruz and several other senators tried to persuade Trump to back off the policy. The call stretched past midnight and "did not go well," Cruz said. Trump was "yelling" and "cursing" during the conversation.

"Trump was in a bad mood," Cruz told donors. "I've been in conversations where he was very happy. This was not one of them."

Cruz warned Trump that the tariffs could wreck the economy and imperil the GOP's political standing.

"Mr. President, if we get to November and people's 401(k)s are down 30% and prices are up 10–20% at the supermarket, we're going to go into Election Day, face a bloodbath," Cruz said he told Trump.

"You're going to lose the House, you're going to lose the Senate, you're going to spend the next two years being impeached every single week."

Trump's response, according to Cruz, was blunt: "F**k you, Ted."

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the trade deficit shrank to $29.4 billion in October. That marks the smallest gap since June 2009 and a sharp 39% decline from September’s $48.1 billion. The economy also grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter — the fastest pace in two years.

When a donor brought up "Liberation Day," Trump's branding for the tariff rollout, Cruz mocked the phrase. He said he told his staff that anyone using it "will be terminated on the spot." He added, "That is not language we use."

Cruz also told donors he had been "battling" the White House to secure a trade agreement with India. When asked who inside the administration opposed such deals, Cruz pointed to economic adviser Peter Navarro, Vice President Vance, and "sometimes" Trump.

A Cruz spokesperson downplayed the recordings in a statement, insisting that Cruz is "the president's greatest ally in the Senate and battles every day in the trenches to advance his agenda." 

"Those battles include fights over staffers who try to enter the administration despite disagreeing with the president and seeking to undermine his foreign policy," the statement continued. "Sen. Cruz is proud of those fights, his accomplishments, and his close relationship with the president. These attempts at sowing division are pathetic and getting boring.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 16:40

Abandon Big Tech: Ethereum Founder Buterin Calls 2026 The Year To Reclaim Self-Sovereign Computing

Authored by Christina Comben via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin declared 2026 to be the “year we take back lost ground in computing self-sovereignty,” starting with his own devices. 

In a Friday post on X, he laid out the software changes he has made to reduce reliance on data-hungry, centralized platforms.

The “two major changes” to the software he used in 2025 were switching “almost fully” to Fileverse, an open-source, decentralized document platform — a kind of privacy-preserving Google Docs — and switching “decisively” to Signal as his primary messaging app.

Signal uses end-to-end encryption by default for all one-to-one and group chats, and stores minimal metadata, meaning only limited information, such as when an account was created or the last date it connected to the service.

Telegram, in contrast, only offers end-to-end encryption in optional “secret chats” and otherwise keeps messages and metadata on its own servers, a model that has drawn scrutiny as law enforcement data requests have increased in countries like France.

Becoming more self-sovereign. Source: Vitalik Buterin

Local AI and self-hosted tools

In 2026, Buterin has moved from Google Maps to OpenStreetMap via OrganicMaps and from Gmail to Proton Mail, while prioritizing decentralized social media.

Buterin also discussed his experiments with locally hosting large language models, arguing that sending all data to third-party services is “unnecessary” when users can increasingly run artificial intelligence tools on their own hardware. 

He said better user interfaces, integrations and efficiency are still needed to make local models a seamless default, but added that there has already been “huge progress” compared with a year ago. 

Privacy advocates see broader shift

His post echoes points made by privacy advocate and NBTV founder Naomi Brockwell, who described running models locally as the most private way to use AI without sending prompts or documents to external servers.

How to use AI privately. Source: Naomi Brockwell

Brockwell has spent years teaching privacy-enhancing behavior to mainstream audiences, arguing that privacy is about autonomy rather than secrecy and encouraging the use of tools like Bitcoin, encrypted messengers and self-hosted services to reduce government and corporate surveillance power.

Buterin’s post also comes amid renewed debate over how much access governments and platforms should have to users’ private communications and metadata.

The European Union’s controversial Chat Control proposal, for example, originally included pre‑encryption scanning of messages to detect abusive material, and prompted warnings from civil liberties groups and technologists that client‑side scanning could undermine trust in encrypted apps.

Progressively swapping out everyday apps for encrypted, open-source and local alternatives is, according to Buterin and other privacy advocates, one way for users to start reclaiming control over their data flows.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 15:25

Mobocracy: Democratic Politicians Compete In Race To The Bottom Over ICE Shooting

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This year, there has been a race to the bottom as Democratic politicians fuel the rage in our streets against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.

That continued this last week when Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz again rushed to judgment after a shooting, adding that the public should not treat Border Patrol or ICE officers as real “law enforcement” officers.

However, rock bottom was finally reached by Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes (D), who not only said that she does not consider ICE officers to be “real law enforcement,” but raised the possibility of citizens shooting them under state law.

First, the obvious.  

Mayes said, “I put [“officers”] in air quotes because I don’t think they are real law enforcement.” These are real law enforcement officers under federal law, enforcing federal law. Period. The effort by Walz, Mayes, and others to question their status or treat them as impostors is clearly designed to inflame citizens and encourage greater confrontations.

It is a dangerous form of demagoguery. It is sending citizens into harm’s way, encouraging them to impede federal operations involving the arrest of criminal suspects.

Mayes’s comments could justify many putting “attorney general” in air quotes since she is not only misleading citizens about the status of these officers but also enabling the very rage that is causing the injury and death of individuals.

Again, repeating Walz’s talking points, she referred to these officers as “poorly trained.” She obviously has no idea about the training of these officers. The officer involved in the Alex Pretti shooting was an experienced officer with the Border Patrol. The officer involved in the prior Renée Good shooting was also an experienced officer.

While mischaracterizing the officers, figures like Walz are sending demonstrably “untrained” citizens into highly dangerous situations. Walz specifically called out citizens into the streets to record these operations, which is precisely what Pretti was trying to do before his fatal confrontation with officers.

Mayes, however, was not looking for a tie in that race to the bottom. She told citizens that Arizona’s “Stand Your Ground” law might be cited as grounds for the use of lethal force against officers.  She declared:

“You have these masked, federal officers with very little identification — sometimes no identification — wearing plain clothes and masks and we have a ‘Stand Your Ground’ law that says if you reasonably believe your life is in danger and you’re in your house or in your car or on your property, that you can defend yourself with lethal force.”

She later added, “It’s a fact that we have a ‘Stand Your Ground’ law and, in other states, un-uniformed, masked people who can’t be identified as police officers.”

It was a reckless statement of the law.

These laws only protect “reasonable” uses of self-defense. However, they have an express exemption for using force “to resist an arrest that the person knows or should know is being made by a peace officer or by a person acting in a peace officer’s presence and at his direction, whether the arrest is lawful or unlawful, unless the physical force used by the peace officer exceeds that allowed by law.”

It is not uncommon for law enforcement to use officers in plain clothes to make initial arrests or contacts with suspects who might flee or resist.

Mayes’s comments could encourage an already enraged and irrational segment of our population to use lethal force under the false pretense of standing their ground.

Attacks on these officers have increased exponentially with the violent rhetoric of these politicians. Just last week, a rioter bit off the finger of an officer.

Mayes also vowed to prosecute any ICE agent who violates state laws in these operations. She is also mimicking Walz in spreading legal disinformation. While federal officers do not have absolute immunity in all cases, it is extremely unlikely that state officials could successfully prosecute such cases without facing a transfer to federal court and likely dismissal.

Walz made the same misleading claim in saying that Minnesota would investigate the shooting and that the federal government would not be allowed to conduct the investigation. He has no authority to dictate who or how the shooting will be investigated.

While the state can conduct its own investigation, the federal government will investigate a shooting by a federal officer. Walz further pandered to the mob by raising the debunked “bait boy” story and telling citizens that ICE was “shooting them in the face when they come out of donut shops.”

Rage is hard to maintain for months and the Pretti shooting, as described by one Democratic operative according to Fox’s Chad Pergram, is a “new wild card” in the politics on the Hill over funding.

There remain legitimate questions about this shooting. The videotapes do not show, as suggested in early accounts from the federal government, that Pretti approached the officers brandishing a weapon.

Pretti does not obey the commands of the officers in returning to the middle of the road during their operation. However, he did not appear threatening until after the officer pushed him to the side of the road. At one point, he appears to shove the officer as he tries to assist a woman who was pushed to the ground.

What happens next is hard to determine. There is a video that suggests that an officer may have removed his weapon from its holster just before another officer yells “gun.” It is hard to see Pretti’s hands and we do not know what happened in that split second. We may get a better idea as new videotapes emerge.

Law enforcement officers do not expect blind deference on shootings. However, they have a right to expect a fair chance for an investigation to hear their side of a shooting — not a governor or a mayor rushing before cameras to effectively accuse them of murder.

At this point, it may not matter. Only the mob matters.  Minneapolis Brian O’Hara explained: “even if there is an investigation that ultimately proves that at the time of the shooting it was legally justified, I don’t think that even matters at this point, because there just- there is so much outrage and concern around what is happening in the city.”

Walz has demonstrated politics of the lowest kind, stoking anger as citizens and officers alike are injured. Walz is pledging to go to court to stop further operations—a lawsuit that would be another frivolous filing. Previously, the state, including Attorney General Keith Ellison, filed to prevent the federal government from increasing forces to investigate fraud and immigration violations.

Walz, Mayes, and others are following a long line of demagogues who sought to use social unrest to advance their political careers. For Walz, sending people into the streets has the benefit of not having them at home watching and reading about the growing fraud scandal in his state.

It is not a defense of democracy, but mobocracy in Minnesota.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the forthcoming “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution,” which will be released on Feb. 3 as part of the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 14:45

Saudi Aramco Dismisses Oil Glut Narrative As "Seriously Exaggerated"

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Forecasts of a massive oil glut are seriously exaggerated as demand keeps rising and global stocks are below the five-year average, according to Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin Nasser. 

“Oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated,” Nasser said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week as carried by Reuters.

Global oil stocks are low, while the amassed barrels in floating storage on tankers are mostly sanctioned supplies, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm and top crude exporter said. 

Moreover, spare capacity has dwindled over the past year, also limiting potential efforts to boost output in case of major supply disruptions, according to Nasser. 

“It (spare capacity) is ‌at 2.5% and we need a minimum of 3%. If OPEC+ further unwinds cuts, spare capacity will ‌fall even further and we will need to watch this very carefully,” Aramco’s top executive said. 

The market is oversupplied, analysts say, as reflected in only brief spikes in oil prices in recent weeks driven the geopolitical developments. 

Most investment banks and the EIA forecast that average oil prices will be below $60 per barrel in 2026 due to an emerging and persistent market oversupply, especially during the first half of the year.  

But OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, insists that the market would be balanced as demand growth is robust and will remain such in 2027, too. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week raised its oil demand growth estimate and expects growth at 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up by 70,000 bpd from last month’s assessment. 

The upgrade reflects a recovery in feedstock demand in the petrochemicals industry, on top of expectations of normalized economic conditions after the unpredictable and chaotic tariff policy of the Trump Administration last year.

But the market continues to be oversupplied, the Paris-based agency noted. 

“Indeed, benchmark crude oil prices remain $16/bbl lower than a year ago, reflecting the large global supply surplus that built up over the past 12 months, in line with our forecasts,” the IEA said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 14:05

Egon von Greyerz On The Hidden Crisis Behind Silver's Price Surge

In the following clip, Egon von Greyerz explains why the precious metals market has entered a fundamentally new and unprecedented phase.

One which is driven not by speculation or momentum trading, but by deep structural imbalances between physical supply and an unprecedented physical demand.

Persistent supply deficits in silver over several consecutive years, combined with rapidly rising industrial demand from sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, electronics and defense, have created a physical shortage in the last 5 years that paper markets can no longer mask.

At the same time, the volume of outstanding paper contracts in London and New York now vastly exceeds the amount of physical silver available for delivery.

Von Greyerz warns that this imbalance marks a critical turning point, as silver transitions away from a manipulated paper-based system into a genuinely physical market, where price is ultimately set by scarcity, not leverage. 

Watch Egon explain why manipulation fails when physical precious metals run out...

Here are some key excerpts from the full transcript: (emphasis ours)

...this is a fundamental change. Some viewers might remember the late 1970s when silver quickly climbed from a few dollars up to $50. This was primarily speculation by the Hunt Brothers.

[01:44.7] And of course, the market could quickly sell enough paper silver to crash the price. And it didn't stay long at $50. This time, any selling that is attempted by bullion banks fails ,and we've seen many times being sold in the evening and, within a few hours, it's back up again.

[02:06.0] And this has happened last week again. Friday evening was sold off and then quickly went up to $90. I think we're quickly going to see $100 and more already in the Far East and in Australia, like the Perth Mint, selling now silver at over $100.

[02:25.0] So the price in London and in New York will have to follow. So what does that mean for the ordinary investors? Well, it clearly means that silver is just starting the move, and we are going to see, as I have stressed many times, we are going to see multiples of the current price.

[02:44.8] Will it correct? Of course, silver always corrects, but this is not a normal market because it's now turned into a physical market, which is it should always be rather than the manipulation that we have seen in paper markets. [03:00.0] So physical demand has gone from 10% of production to now 50% in the last year. That is a massive increase in demand, obviously stemming from solar panels, electric cars, electrical products, electronic products and also of course from defence contracts.

[03:18.4] Every missile uses quite a lot of silver, and all other electronic products and weapons use a big amount of silver now. So the demand is there on the physical side, and the demand is there on the investment side, and the production just isn't there.

To satisfy this demand, we've had deficits for the last five years.  Those deficits are going to increase. This is why there will be constant demand for silver, and it is probable in the next year or two that there'll be failure in some markets. Whether that will be in the London market, and some bullion bank will go under. Whether that will be on Comex, we don't know.

[03:53.9] But the risk is very high.

So it is obviously absolutely important for investors to hold nothing but physical silver, buy physical and hold it outside the banking system, not within the banking system. Don't buy ETFs, don't buy any futures, hold physical silver and keep it in a safe storage, in a safe vault like we do for clients, and keep it outside the banking system.

[04:19.7] Now, there are of course many other factors that influence the price of the metals. Gold is also going up, but as I have made clear for quite a while, silver will go twice as fast as gold in the coming years. Now the gold-silver ratio has gone from over 100 to about 50.

[04:36.4] Now the long-term ratio is probably going to be around the 15 level initially, but I wouldn't be surprised to see even lower than that, that being a natural level. But now I think the demand is of such magnitude and the supply so minuscule.

...

Now I'm absolutely convinced we'll see $10,000 for gold. What does that mean for silver? If you take the gold-silver ratio at 15, which is an historical quite important level, then you divide 10,000 by 15, you get 666.

[05:38.3] So, a minimum we would see with silver, in my view, is $666. 

...

But remember, you are not buying silver or gold for speculative purposes or to make money.

[08:16.2] You are buying it to protect your wealth against the total destruction of wealth that we're going to see in the next few years. That is a destruction of paper wealth that is now, at levels which are unprecedented in history, because money printing has been unprecedented, and lending has been unprecedented.

[08:35.2] Countries will go bust, banks will go bust in America, in Europe. Whether it's due to property market, whether it's commercial markets, or people not being able to pay their loans, it doesn't matter. Many banks will go under. Governments and central banks are going to print unlimited amounts of money, and therefore, the value of your dollar, your euro or your pound is going to collapse.

[08:58.6] And that would be reflected in a much higher gold price...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 13:45

Stellar 2Y Trasury Auction: Surge In Indirects & Bid-To-Cover; Second Lowest Dealers On Record

The first coupon auction of the week just took place, and it could not have gone any better. 

According to the US Treasury, $69BN of 2 Year paper was just sold at a high yield of 3.580%, up from the 3.499% in December, and stopped through the When Issued 3.594% by 1.4bps, the biggest stop through since August.

The bid to cover jumped to 2.750, up from 2.543 and the highest since Nov 2024 (the six-auction average was 2.61). 

The internals were even stronger: Indirects took down 64.4%, a big jump from 53.2% in December and the highest since March 2025. And with Directs awarded 28.3%, Dealers were left with just 7.3%, the second lowest on record (only Feb 2025 was lower).

Overall, this was a stellar auction and clearly there were no jitters head of Wednesday's FOMC decision, where prevailing consensus is that the Fed will be more hawkish.

Ahead of the auction, the UBS desk thought 2s looked to be locally cheap on outright terms and that the recent flattening had also introduced some value, albeit marginal, on the curve. The market is rallying on the follow. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 13:35

What We Are Experiencing Is Not De-Dollarisation But De-Fiatization

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist At Rabobank

J.P. Morgan once famously remarked that “gold is money, everything else is credit.” That dictum was apparently forgotten during the 1980s & 1990s as gold’s share of central bank reserves steadily declined and gold prices – for most of that period – did the same.

That period was the most recent era of high financialization, where Hollywood movies like Wall Street, Trading Places, Barbarians at the Gate and even Pretty Woman glorified the swashbuckling lifestyle of financiers. It was also the era of the leveraged buyout, the rise of the MBA, the retail day-trader speculating in the dotcom boom and the germination of the idea (in the Anglosphere, at least) that you too can get rich through landlording – effectively transforming housing from a consumption good to a financial asset. This was also the era of the imperialism of the US Treasury Bond.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is reasonably clear from the data that this period ended with the popping of the dotcom bubble, but the final eulogy was not read until the financial crisis of 2008 when the excesses of high financialization were truly laid bare. This imbued the arguments of non-market economies like China that American system was decadent and sclerotic – and that the their system was superior – with apparent credibility. Along with military misadventure in the Middle East this constituted a heavy blow for the soft power and prestige of the United States.

While it is typical to think of the financial crisis is an epochal ending, gold’s share of central bank reserves hit its nadir around the year 2000. That was also the approximate highwater mark for US Treasury bonds’ share of global reserve assets. Many Western central banks – the last sellers of scale – had recently offloaded their holdings at low, low prices in the late 1990s having been taken in by fashionable ideas that gold was a “barbarous relic” and that the creation of the fiat monetary system and floating exchange rates in 1971 made holding gold a quaint anachronism.

Fast forward to today and gold is now trading well above $5000/oz. Silver is trading well above $100/oz. The financial has given way to the material and the fashionable narrative is now ‘sell America’ and de-Dollarisation. Dollar assets’ share of total central bank reserves has been in slow decline for years, but some commentators are now pronouncing the death of the Dollar system as Donald Trump’s abrasive style of foreign policy offends traditional allies. In seeming support of the sell America narrative, the Bloomberg Dollar spot index is down 1.14% year to date.

However, on the other side of the ledger we continue to see strong demand at US Treasury auctions and SWIFT data shows that the use of the US Dollar in international payments is actually increasing, mostly at the expense of the Euro. The Chinese Renminbi has seen a modest rise in its use in payments, but small declines in its already low share of central bank reserves. Even the increased use in payments is exaggerated somewhat by transactions between mainland China and Hong Kong. At only 3-4% of total payments versus more than 50% for the Dollar, it would seem to us that the demise of the Dollar in favor of other currencies is much exaggerated.

Speaking to the media at Davos, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio argued that what we are experiencing is not de-Dollarisation, but de-fiatization. That is, flight from fiat currencies in favor of real assets or – as J.P. Morgan might have advised – real money in the form of gold and silver. Ray pointed out that “in a war-like environment” countries don’t want to hold each other’s debt for fear of sanctions (Russia presents a cautionary example), while other investors don’t want to hold financial claims for fear of debasement through deficit spending by national governments and debt monetization – quantitative easing – by central banks. Under this scenario, it is rational to hold neutral money with no counterparty risk, no risk of debasement and less scope for the imposition of capital controls. The last sellers of scale (central banks) became the first buyers of scale in 2024 and 2025, but the trade has broadened out to other buyers.

The debasement of fiat currencies is now easy to spot. Aside from gold and silver regularly re-setting all-time highs the Bloomberg commodity index has surged to sit at its highest level since mid-2022. Brent crude prices have risen for the last five weeks straight and Henry Hub natural gas prices have surged more than 65% year-to-date. These types of moves signal a scarcity of the material relative to the financial. Consequently, long yields have remained elevated (or surged, in the case of Japan) and the Reserve Bank of Australia – who took the ‘gently, gently’ approach on fighting inflation – may soon become the first G10 currency-issuing central bank (aside from Japan) forced to hike rates. The AUD has recently been surging in anticipation.

As Dalio explained to Bloomberg, the flipside of a trade imbalance is a capital imbalance. This is because the capital account is – by definition – the inverse of the current account (which includes the trade balance) in the balance of payments. With the USA running record current account deficits in early 2025, it’s a matter of mathematics that foreign investors have to buy US Treasuries for that deficit to be financed. For the US to make progress on reducing its trade deficit (as it has recently), it must also make progress on reducing its capital account surplus. That means fewer Dollars for the rest of the world who – as detailed above – rely on Dollars to conduct trade.

This is the Triffin Dilemma, which also describes why China – with its immense and growing trade surplus – cannot supplant the Dollar’s global role with the CNY. How are you going to get CNY into the hands of other countries unless China runs a trade deficit? Logically – though its appeal as a store of value may be diminishing – the Dollar must remain the global reserve currency because there is no viable alternative. Central governments will not return to a gold standard for the same reason the last vestiges of the gold standard were abandoned in the first place: it would constrain governments’ freedom to engage in deficit spending and create inflation.

Very clearly the world is erecting new barriers to the free movement of goods. With the US embracing a re-invigorated Monroe Doctrine under its new National Security Strategy, it now views the economic affairs of its neighbours in the Western Hemisphere as issues of interest for the United States. This is obvious in the case of Venezuela, and also in the case of the Panama Canal, and was again highlighted over the weekend when President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada were to do a trade deal with China.

Canadian PM Carney became the darling of Davos by delivering a speech articulating the changes in the world order and attempting to rally middle powers to band together and stand against great power coercion. Carney was delivering jabs at the United States, but the credibility of his message may have been diminished somewhat by his actions in signing an agreement with China to reduce Canada’s 100% tariff on Chinese EVs in exchange for a reduction in Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and seafood products.

Speaking to ABC’s This Week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained the tariff threat by making it clear that Canada’s deal was not acceptable from the perspective of the USA. “We have a highly integrated market with Canada... Goods can cross the border six times during the manufacturing process. And we can’t let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the U.S.”

For now, the geostrategic competition between China and the United States continues to be prosecuted as a trade war but investors may do well to heed Dalio’s warning that punishment in the form of a global capital war is on the horizon. For details on how one part of that might look, see our thoughts on US Dollar stablecoins here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 12:10

Trump Hails "Very Good Call" With Walz As He Sends "Tough But Fair" Tom Homan To Minnesota

President Trump announced on Jan. 26 that he is sending border czar Tom Homan to Minnesota in the wake of the shooting of an anti-immigration enforcement protester by a federal agent.

The president said in a morning Truth Social post that Homan would be going to Minnesota on Monday evening, noting that though Homan hasn’t been involved in operations there, he knows many officials in the state.

“Tom is tough but fair, and will report directly to me,” Trump wrote.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed in a post on Monday that Homan would be investigating fraud in Minnesota, building on a multi-agency effort that was launched several weeks ago amid reports of fraudulent activity targeting federal and state entitlement programs.

The border czar, she added, would also be managing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in Minnesota to target illegal immigrants.

“In addition, Tom will coordinate with those leading investigations into the massive, widespread fraud that has resulted in billions of taxpayer dollars being stolen from law-abiding citizens in Minnesota,” Leavitt wrote on X.

As Jack Phillips reports for The Epoch Times, the Trump administration has launched its most ambitious immigration operation to date in Minneapolis, sparking weeks of protests by residents and resulting in two shooting deaths.

A Border Patrol agent on Saturday fired in self-defense after a man, identified later as Alex Pretti, approached with a handgun and violently resisted attempts to disarm him, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

It followed the Jan. 7 fatal shooting of U.S citizen Renee Good during a separate immigration operation.

Democratic congressional lawmakers have warned that in the wake of the Pretti shooting, they could shut down the federal government at the end of January if Republicans do not pass a package without DHS funding.

“Senate Democrats will not allow the current DHS funding bill to move forward,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement on Sunday before he criticized the Trump administration.

“People should be safe from abuse by their own government. Senate Republicans must work with Democrats to advance the other five funding bills while we work to rewrite the DHS bill.”

In posts over the weekend and in his Truth Social comment Monday, Trump has shown no sign of backing down amid the protests. On Monday, he suggested that the operation was critical.

Trump wrote that “a major investigation is going on with respect to the massive 20 Billion Dollar. ... Welfare Fraud that has taken place in Minnesota, and is at least partially responsible for the violent organized protests going on in the streets.”

Trump said Sunday that the operation in Minnesota was a key part of why he won in 2024 and signaled that Democratic politicians were to blame.

“Tragically, two American Citizens have lost their lives as a result of this Democrat ensued chaos,” the president said.

This morning, 'diplomacy' appears to be taking place as President Trump said in a Truth Social post (in a dramatic shift in tone) that Governor Tim Walz called him with the request to work together with respect to Minnesota.

"It was a very good call, and we, actually, seemed to be on a similar wavelength," Trump said.

"I told Governor Walz that I would have Tom Homan call him, and that what we are looking for are any and all Criminals that they have in their possession. The Governor, very respectfully, understood that, and I will be speaking to him in the near future.

He was happy that Tom Homan was going to Minnesota, and so am I! We have had such tremendous SUCCESS in Washington, D.C., Memphis, Tennessee, and New Orleans, Louisiana, and virtually every other place that we have “touched” and, even in Minnesota, Crime is way down, but both Governor Walz and I want to make it better!"

We will just have to see if the manufacture crisis ebbs after this... and just how Walz will respond to Trump's statement.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 11:55

Booz Allen Shares Hammered After Treasury Cancels Consulting Contracts

Shares of Booz Allen Hamilton tumbled the most in months during late Monday morning trading after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled dozens of contracts tied to the consulting firm.

Secretary Bessent said 31 contracts with Booz Allen were terminated, representing $4.8 million in annual spending and $21 million in total obligations.

"President Trump has entrusted his cabinet to root out waste, fraud, and abuse, and canceling these contracts is an essential step to increasing Americans' trust in government," he said, adding, "Booz Allen failed to implement adequate safeguards to protect sensitive data, including the confidential taxpayer information it had access to through its contracts with the Internal Revenue Service."

Treasury pointed to an incident with Booz Allen in recent years:

Most notably, between 2018 and 2020, Charles Edward Littlejohn — an employee of Booz Allen Hamilton — stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.

Last spring, Booz Allen said it was undergoing a major restructuring and planned to cut roughly 2,500 jobs, about 7% of its workforce, as President Trump's DOGE efforts reduced government spending by discontinuing federal contracts.

Later in the year, CEO Horacio Rozanski told investors the company was "making the difficult decision to reduce layers and numbers in our senior ranks" due to federal contract reductions and a broader slowdown in government funding.

Shares of Booz Allen are down 7.5% in the cash session this morning, marking the worst single-day decline since October 24, when the stock fell about 9%. Shares have been cut roughly in half since President Trump's November 2024 election victory, as Elon Musk's DOGE initiative began aggressively targeting waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal bureaucracy in early 2025.

In May 2025, Goldman analyst Noah Poponak downgraded Booz Allen from "Neutral" to "Sell," noting medium-term revenue growth is expected to be flat as federal civilian spending comes under pressure and priorities shift within many federal agencies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 11:40