Zero Hedge

In Massive News For SAVE Act, Cornyn Flips On Filibuster To Push Through Voter ID

March 11, 2026 - 3:10pm

In Massive News For SAVE Act, Cornyn Flips On Filibuster To Push Through Voter ID

Up until today, establishment poster boy Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) was a chief obstacle to killing the filibuster so that Republicans could pass the SAVE Act, which would require photo ID to be able to vote in US elections.

Now, Cornyn has suddenly abandoned his sacred cow - which he called the last bastion of "minority rights" and do "whatever changes to Senate rules that may prove necessary for us to get the SAVE America Act and homeland security funding past the Democrats’ obstruction," which also happens to be Trump's top priority.

In a groveling op-ed in the NY Post, Cornyn declared that "process matters, but outcomes matter more: The Democrats’ assault on election integrity and national security must be stopped," adding that the nation is at a "critical hour" where "old procedures no longer align with the core American principles we must defend."

Translation: His political hide is on the line, and he's willing to torch Senate traditions - which Democrats will shred as soon as they can anyway - to save it.

Cornyn vs. Paxton

Cornyn is also looking for an endorsement from Trump, which would go a long way towards staving off a bruising primary runoff election against Texas AG Ken Paxton set for May 26. That said, a new poll shows that wouldn't matter much.

After Paxton and Cornyn advanced to a runoff last week, Trump finally weighed in on the race, saying he would make an endorsement "soon."

According to the Texas Public Opinion Research poll, that endorsement doesn't close the gap for Cornyn.

Based on those polled, if Trump endorsed Paxton, then 58% of voters said they would vote for Paxton, while just 32% would vote for Cornyn. -Fox4

This isn't Cornyn's first dance with filibuster hypocrisy. As ZeroHedge detailed last October, Senate Republicans, including Cornyn, were already mulling filibuster reforms to end a government shutdown, showing cracks in the so-called "institutionalist" facade. But now, with his back against the wall, the flip is complete as Cornyn faces the fight of his life in the Texas runoff. As we noted after their March 3 primary, Paxton edged out a polling lead, framing the race as a battle between "America First" populism and Cornyn's establishment cronyism. RealClearPolitics averages had Paxton up by 3.8 points pre-primary, and with Trump yet to weigh in, Cornyn's scrambling to prove his loyalty.

Saving the SAVE Act

As we noted yesterday, on Sunday, Trump issued a blunt legislative ultimatum, declaring on Truth Social that he would refuse to sign any bill until the Senate passed the SAVE America Act. "It must be done immediately. It supersedes everything else. MUST GO TO THE FRONT OF THE LINE," Trump posted. The legislation would require physical proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, a photo ID to vote, and would restrict mail-in voting to military personnel and a narrow set of extenuating circumstances.

Democrats in Washington, DC, have blasted the legislation as voter suppression, but a Harvard/Harris poll found that 71% of Americans support the bill, including 69% of independents, and 50% of Democrats.

Poll after poll shows overwhelming support for voter ID laws across the political spectrum. According to the Pew Research Center, 83% of Americans support voter ID requirements, including large majorities of Democrats, independents, whites, blacks, and Latinos. Gallup reports similar findings, with 84% backing voter ID—98% of Republicans, 84% of independents, and even 67% of Democrats. The same survey found that 83% support requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. Rasmussen Reports puts support at 75%, noting that backing for voter ID has steadily increased over the past decade.

While support for the SAVE Act is bipartisan, Democrats in Congress are rabidly opposed to it. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has repeatedly called the SAVE Act “Jim Crow 2.0,” and made unsubstantiated claims that it would “disenfranchise tens of millions of people.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 15:10

Justice Department Moves Forward With Collection Of Complete Voter Rolls

March 11, 2026 - 2:50pm

Justice Department Moves Forward With Collection Of Complete Voter Rolls

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Trump administration is using all its legal levers to obtain complete voter rolls, pressing ahead with dozens of lawsuits and investigations in multiple states.

An FBI press office worker approaches the Fulton County Election Hub and Operation Center in Union City, Ga., on Jan. 28, 2026. Arvin Temka/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP

Although some of the lawsuits have been dismissed, criminal proceedings have yielded results. Also, about a dozen states have provided the data voluntarily.

The Department of Justice (DOJ), through its criminal and civil rights divisions, has been reaching out to states since May, requesting voter rolls with complete personal information, mainly driver’s license numbers or the last four digits of Social Security Numbers.

The department said the information is necessary to determine whether states are complying with federal voter roll maintenance laws.

Democratic states have almost uniformly refused to provide the data. Some Republican states also have been wary of submitting the information, usually referring the DOJ to the public version of their voter list with the sensitive information redacted.

The Constitution leaves it up to states to organize their elections, but also grants Congress authority to override state election laws. “The Times, Places, and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations,” reads the Elections Clause.

Congress has passed multiple landmark election bills, including the 1993 National Voter Registration Act and the 2002 Help America Vote Act. Both speak to rules for maintaining voter rolls by removing ineligible individuals, such as those who have moved, died, or do not qualify to vote for other reasons.

President Donald Trump has vowed to strengthen federal election oversight, maintaining that irregularities in the 2020 election cost him victory. His lawyers vigorously and unsuccessfully contested the results.

Trump has been pushing the SAVE America Act, which would require Americans to present proof of citizenship, such as a passport or a birth certificate, for voter registration.

The bill passed the GOP-controlled House in February, but stalled in the Senate, where Republicans lack the votes to overcome the filibuster.

Civil Suits

At least 22 states, plus the District of Columbia (D.C.), have refused to provide the unredacted voter data to the DOJ, usually citing state and federal privacy laws.

Some states have stalled, telling DOJ they needed more time to review the legal implications.

Since September, the department has filed lawsuits against state election officials, trying to compel production of the data. So far, at least 29 states, plus the District, have been sued.

The lawsuits argue that the DOJ has broad authority to request the data under Title III of the Civil Rights Act of 1960.

The law requires states to retain election documents and make them “available for inspection, reproduction, and copying” by the attorney general upon demand.

The department’s lawyers state that courts can’t question what the DOJ needs the data for, as long as the demand provides a reason, which, in this case, is that the department needs to check whether states comply with voter rolls maintenance rules outlined in federal laws.

States have argued that Title III was to prevent racial discrimination, rather than facilitate compliance with voter rolls maintenance. They state that the DOJ needs to provide not just a reason, but also “basis” for its demands—some “specific, articulable facts pointing to the violation of federal law.”

They further raise the issue of privacy laws, both state and federal, precluding them from sharing sensitive personal data.

The DOJ has argued that federal laws trump state laws and federal privacy laws are already satisfied because the department has provided states with the means of transmitting the data securely and will handle it in accordance with existing procedures.

So far, none of the suits have proceeded far enough to grant the department’s request.

Three of the earlier suits, in California, Oregon, and Michigan, have been dismissed by federal judges. The administration has appealed the cases.

Criminal Proceedings

On Jan. 28, the FBI executed a search warrant in the election offices of Fulton County, Georgia, which includes the broader Atlanta area.

Agents seize hundreds of boxes of documents, including physical ballots.

The affidavit supporting the warrant pointed to multiple issues with the 2020 elections in the county, including its two recounts, one by hand and one by machine.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who was responsible for overseeing the election, has dismissed the issues as administrative and human errors that didn’t affect the election outcome.

But the affidavit noted that even if the result wouldn’t change, the issues indicated that crimes may have been committed.

In early March, the FBI obtained a grand jury subpoena to collect election documents pertaining to the Arizona Senate’s 2020 audit of Maricopa County, where nearly two-thirds of Arizonians live.

The large volume of electronic data included ballots and voter records, The Epoch Times reported.

Voluntary Compliance

A dozen states have voluntarily provided the data or indicated they will do so: Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming.

Some states, including Florida, Missouri, Montana, Iowa, South Carolina, Alabama, and Idaho, have not provided the data, but have yet to be sued.

There’s no indication that data from North Dakota and North Carolina has been requested by the DOJ.

The department has been offering states a Memorandum of Understanding that outlines the conditions under which the demanded data should be provided. The memorandum would require states to remove ineligible voters within 45 days of being alerted by the DOJ.

Most states have refused to sign it, including some among those that have ultimately shared the data.

Federal laws require, in certain circumstances, that voters be notified before they are removed from the rolls, and for officials to wait two election cycles before removing them. At least 13 Republican states have mentioned the 45-day requirement as an issue of concern.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:50

Solid 10Y Auction Sees Jump In Foreign Demand Despite Tail

March 11, 2026 - 2:47pm

Solid 10Y Auction Sees Jump In Foreign Demand Despite Tail

After yesterday's mediocre 3Y auction, today we had the highlight of the week's coupon issuance when the Treasury sold $39BN in benchmark 10Y paper. And amid a painful selloff that pushed 10Y yields above 4.20%, the auction wasn't too bad all things considered.

First the ugly: the auction priced at a high yield of 4.217%, up from 4.177% in February and the highest since last August. Why ugle? Because the auction tailed the When Issued 4.210% by 0.7bps, the second tail in a row and 4 of the past 6.

The rest of the auction was more solid, starting with the bid to cover, which jumped from 2.388 to 2.449, if still below the recent six-auction average of 2.51 which however was pulled higher by two outlier high BtCs in recent days.

The internals were also solid: Indirects jumped to 74.45% from 64.54%, which was the highest allotment to foreign buyers since September. And with Directs taking 12.83%, Dealers were left holding just 12.7%, which however was on the high side of the recent auction average of 8.63%.

Overall this was a solid auction, despite the large intraday selloff and despite the tail, and suggests that unlike other asset classes, the bond market is certainly not concerned about runaway cost-push inflation in the months to come.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:47

Energy Shock Threatens Fertilizer Supplies As Echoes Of 2022 Food Price Spike Return

March 11, 2026 - 2:30pm

Energy Shock Threatens Fertilizer Supplies As Echoes Of 2022 Food Price Spike Return

The speed of the energy shock is already feeding into agricultural markets, with food inflation risks likely to build as secondary effects ripple through commodity markets following chaos in the Middle East. Soaring input costs, including diesel fuel for tractors and machinery and natural gas as a key fertilizer feedstock, suggest global food prices may be poised for another sharp move higher, echoing the food price spike in the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"The speed of the move [energy shock] pushed volatility sharply higher, with energy once again becoming the primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk into broader macro pricing," UBS analyst Claudio Martucci wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

Claudio pointed out, "Agricultural markets reacted more indirectly to the energy shock via higher fertilizer costs, and higher input and biofuel costs lifted soybean oil to two-year highs, while wheat experienced elevated volatility and some profit-taking late in the week despite an otherwise supportive commodity backdrop."

The energy shock that sent Brent and WTI futures to nearly $120 per barrel early in the week has now subsided, as the IEA and world leaders prepare to release a record amount from strategic petroleum reserves, helping cap energy prices for now, with Brent trading around $92/bbl and WTI around $87/bbl.

But the surge in oil and natural gas prices, as the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint remains heavily disrupted into the 12th day of Operation Epic Fury, will likely feed through broader energy markets and into agriculture, potentially pushing the UN FAO World Food Price Index higher in the coming months if energy prices remain elevated, much as it did after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the first half of 2022.

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White warned, "But food prices are likely to be as troublesome for second-round inflationary effects. Less well-known is that the shock to food prices was worse than the oil price shocks in the 1970s, after the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution. Food inflation in the US was already rising before both shocks, and contributed more to headline CPI than energy through almost all of the 70s."

Unbeknownst to some, the Strait of Hormuz region is also a critical maritime route for roughly a third of global fertilizer trade. Security threats remained elevated on Wednesday, with three vessels reportedly hit by IRGC projectiles, insurance costs in some cases rising twelvefold in the recent week, and transit through the waterway remaining partially paralyzed.

Urea prices have already jumped sharply, with broader stress spreading into ammonia, sulphur, and phosphate markets.

Wall Street analysts already warn that the timing is especially bad because many farmers are entering key fertilizer application periods, so any shortage or price spike could hurt crop yields and raise food production costs.

"The timing of the crisis is particularly worrying for the agricultural sector. Farmers in several countries are about to begin applying fertilizer for upcoming crop cycles, meaning any supply shock could directly affect crop yields," said Chris Vlachopoulos from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.

Vlachopoulos said, "The fertilizer market was already under pressure before the Middle East crisis due to gas shortages, export restrictions, and geopolitical tensions affecting key suppliers. The latest conflict could intensify those strains."

"The uncertainty is also rippling across ammonia, sulphur, and phosphates markets, where trade has slowed, prices are firming, and logistical constraints are forcing buyers to seek alternative suppliers while freight costs and shipping risks continue to rise," added Vlachopoulos.

Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners told farm publication Brownfield that the fertilizer price spike may prompt some farmers to reconsider their crop rotations this year.

Nebraska farmer Clay Govier told the publication that he doesn't expect changing his crop rotation this spring growing season but will reduce his nutrient plan.

"You can't even buy fertilizer right now and I think that's the bigger concern for this coming crop in terms of what we're going to do for fertility options," Govier said.

Even if the Hormuz chokepoint reopens next week, the restart time for crude and gas plants could take weeks, and potentially even at least a month. This only suggests the fertilizer market will remain tight for some time. All of this is happening at one of the worst possible times, as the Northern Hemisphere spring growing season kicks off in the coming weeks.

Our read is that the key signal to watch is the FAO World Food Price Index relative to Brent crude (or WTI), which increasingly suggests a 2022-echo price spike may be forming. In other words, readers should begin thinking more seriously about what if Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, is right about worst-case spillover risks.

If that scenario materializes, further disruption across energy markets could quickly amplify the inflationary shock.

It is important to get ahead of the potential chaos that may be approaching if the Hormuz chokepoint remains closed for an extended period, and to start thinking about a backyard garden to weather the storm. And yes, chickens would be a great idea.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:30

'Scientists' Dump 65,000 Liters Of Chemicals Into Ocean In Geoengineering Experiment

March 11, 2026 - 2:00pm

'Scientists' Dump 65,000 Liters Of Chemicals Into Ocean In Geoengineering Experiment

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a move that’s raising alarm, researchers have poured 65,000 litres of sodium hydroxide into the Gulf of Maine, claiming it’s a step toward combating climate change through geoengineering.

With unknown effects on marine life, many are worried this experiment reeks of tinkering that could backfire.

The trial, dubbed the LOC-NESS project, took place off the Massachusetts coast last August, with scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution leading the charge.

Stop this now!!

Every single time arrogant men mess with nature it's a natural disaster

Scientists pump tonnes of chemicals into ocean to stop global warming https://t.co/PXEVDsaug6
— Liz Williams (@Liz4Littletons) March 10, 2026

They argue that boosting ocean alkalinity could suck more CO2 from the atmosphere, turning it into harmless baking soda.

Yet, as globalist agendas push these unproven fixes, freedom-loving skeptics see it as another layer of control over nature without public consent.

Over four days, the team added the alkaline chemical, tagged with red dye for tracking, to waters 50 miles off Boston. “These early results demonstrate that small-scale OAE deployments can be engineered, tracked, and monitored with high precision,” said principal investigator Adam Subhas of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. “We need independent, transparent research to determine which solutions might work.”

The method, known as Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE), aims to mimic and accelerate the ocean’s natural CO2 absorption.

As the document details, the oceans already trap around 38,000 billion tonnes of CO2 as dissolved sodium bicarbonate. By resetting the pH with sodium hydroxide, the scientists boosted it from 7.95 to 8.3—matching pre-industrial levels—and measured 10 tonnes of carbon entering the water immediately.

In the best-case scenario, they estimate the dump could absorb about 50 tonnes of carbon over a year, equivalent to the yearly emissions of five average citizens.

But that’s a drop in the bucket compared to industrial outputs, and it doesn’t address the hypocrisy of governments preaching emission cuts while funding these chemical interventions.

Critics aren’t buying the hype. Gareth Cunningham, Director of Conservation and Policy at the Marine Conservation Society, told the Daily Mail: “These approaches are resource-intensive and their ecological impacts are still poorly understood.” He added: “Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement is a short-term fix that doesn’t address the behaviours driving climate change and ocean acidification.”

The experiment found no negative impacts on plankton, fish, and lobster larvae, according to PhD student Rachel Davitt from Rutgers University, who helped lead the ecological assessment: “Based on the biological and ecological impact data that we have collected and analysed so far, there was no significant impact of the LOC-NESS field trial on the biological community using the metrics we measured.” But effects on adult fish weren’t even assessed, leaving a glaring gap in a region vital for lobster, cod, and haddock fishing.

This isn’t the first time alkalinity tweaks have been tried—Scandinavian rivers got limed in the 1980s to combat acid rain, reviving salmon populations. Yet scaling OAE up would mean dumping billions of tonnes of chemicals annually, releasing trace metals that could poison ecosystems.

Recent studies warn of risks to species growth, metabolism, and biodiversity, while excessive alkalinity might harm seagrasses crucial for marine habitats.

This ocean dump comes amid growing resistance to geoengineering schemes that smack of playing God with the planet.

As we previously covered, a U.S. bill introduced last month aims to outright ban geoengineering activities nationwide. H.R. 7452, sponsored by Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL), would criminalize atmospheric dispersal of chemicals or biological agents for weather modification, including geoengineering, cloud seeding, and solar radiation management.

That legislation defines weather modification broadly as “any injection, release, emission, or dispersal of a chemical substance, a biological agent, or an air pollutant… into the atmosphere” that alters weather, climate, or sunlight. Violators could face up to $100,000 fines and five years in prison per offense. It even repeals existing federal authorities for such programs and bans federally funded research into them.

The bill’s backers point to covert operations already underway, as a 2023 White House report admitted the U.S. “conducts or funds limited research into solar radiation modification.” With commercial jets contributing to lingering contrails that form cloud cover—per FAA, NASA, and NOAA admissions—the push for bans highlights how these experiments evade accountability.

Critics of OAE echo the bill’s concerns: it doesn’t solve emissions but adds residues that could devastate marine life. As Cunningham noted, restoring natural habitats like seagrass and shellfish reefs offers a “more sustainable solution by helping buffer acidification while improving water quality, protecting coastlines and supporting marine life.”

Broader geoengineering strategies, from afforestation in deserts to artificial ocean upwelling and iron fertilization, carry their own drawbacks—like unintended warming or rapid climate shifts if halted.

Solar radiation management via sulphate aerosols could cool the planet but lets CO2 build up unchecked.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:00

President Of Iran Demands "Reparations" As Trump Says War To End 'Soon' As 'Practically Nothing Left' To Target

March 11, 2026 - 10:12am

President Of Iran Demands "Reparations" As Trump Says War To End 'Soon' As 'Practically Nothing Left' To Target

Top headlines of conflict

President of Iran demands reparations and guarantees against future aggression.
Trump says the war with Iran will end soon, as there is 'practically nothing left to target."
Yet U.S. and Israeli officials plan at least two more weeks of strikes
U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's drone production has been significantly degraded.
The IEA is preparing its largest-ever emergency crude oil release to counter surging Brent and WTI prices.
Casualty estimates: over 1,200 killed in Iran from U.S./Israeli strikes (plus civilian reports), 13 deaths in Israel from Iranian retaliation, and 140 U.S. service members wounded (mostly minor).

* * *

Update (1012ET): The President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, says he has spoken with the leaders of Russia and Pakistan, to whom he "reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region."

According to Pezeshkian, the only way to end the war is "recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression."

Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression.
— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) March 11, 2026

Other notable headlines of the day:

*Overnight: Hegseth proclaiming the day saw "most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes" of the war yet - sending prices higher

IEA MEMBERS AGREE OIL STOCKPILE RELEASE OF 400M BARRELS - quick dip and then rip higher in oil prices

*TRUMP: US TOOK OUT JUST ABOUT ALL OF IRAN'S MINE SHIPS - oil reversed lower

*TRUMP: OIL COMPANIES SHOULD USE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - extended drop

*TRUMP PROMISES 'GREAT SAFETY' FOR OIL TANKERS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ - further drop

* * *

Update (1012ET): President Trump on Wednesday said that the war with Iran will end "soon" because there is "practically nothing left to target."

"Little this and that... Any time I want it to end, it will end," Trump told Axios during a five-minute phone call, adding "The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period."

"They were after the rest of the Middle East. They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused. This is payback. They will not get off that easy," Trump said.

So, Mission Almost Accomplished™ after the Trump administration has given estimates ranging from weeks to months for how long this might take.

Yet while Trump is signaling that the operation has largely accomplished its objectives, US and Israeli officials say there's been no indication of when fighting might stop. As Axios notes further, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday that fighting will continue "without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign." Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials say they're preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes in Iran.

* * *

Update (0930ET):

The most significant development in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday was the start of IRGC naval mining operations, which were met with massive U.S. firepower that destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels. As we continue monitoring the maritime chokepoint this morning after IRGC attacks on three commercial vessels, attention is now shifting to the IRGC's drone production capacity, which appears to have been degraded.

Bloomberg reports that 2,100 Shaheds have been fired so far in the 12-day conflict. U.S. forces struck IRGC production facilities, disrupting large-scale manufacturing. The report is based on comments from a senior European official.

"Since the Houthis have produced UAVs under bombardment, one would think the Iranians can, albeit not at the same rates, since facilities have to be dispersed and makeshift workshops used," Sid Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, told the outlet.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Saudi Arabia's kill-cost ratio, neutralizing $20,000 IRGC drones with $2 million-plus missiles, has spurred talks with a Ukrainian counter-drone company for cheap interceptor drones.

* * *

America-Israel's Operation Epic Fury entered its 12th day, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicating that the most intense phase of U.S. strikes is expected on Wednesday. Tehran responded with retaliatory strikes against Gulf neighbors, as Goldman's foreign affairs chief warned of a growing risk of regional spillover (read here). Overnight, market attention centered on energy, with the IEA reportedly proposing its largest-ever emergency crude release to combat Brent and WTI prices, which have reached triple-digit territory.

"The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes. Intelligence more refined and better than ever. So that's on one hand," Hegseth said. "On the other hand, the last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they've been capable of firing yet."

Around 0900 ET, the IEA is expected to announce plans for a massive crude release into the market to cap Brent and WTI prices, which surged near $120 per barrel at the start of the week. In a note to premium subscribers, we outlined several problems that could arise and why any such release would only offer temporary relief.

Read the note:

IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Stockpile Release... There Is Just One Big Problem

Beyond the panic among G-7 leaders and the IEA over crude prices, the Trump administration has also pushed its own headlines on Tuesday in an effort to jawbone energy prices lower, as we explained here.

Jawboning headlines from G-7 and the Trump administration on Tuesday were shortly followed by headlines that Iran had begun mining the Strait of Hormuz. That came after President Trump warned Tehran not to "put out any mines" in the narrow waterway. Shortly afterward, the U.S. military said 16 Iranian mine-laying naval vessels had been eliminated.

Overnight reports described heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets, with damage reported to oil facilities, civilian sites, and a hospital in Bushehr taken out of service. Iran has claimed that nearly 10,000 sites have been hit overall.

There are currently no signs of de-escalation from either side, with IRGC spokesman Ebrahim Zolfighari warning the Trump administration at the start of the week: "If they can afford the price of oil at $200 per barrel, let them keep playing this game."

The latest casualty report states that more than 1,200 people have been killed by U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, and 13 have died in Israel as Iran retaliated with missiles and drones.

Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said that 140 U.S. service members have been wounded in the conflict so far.

"The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and 108 service members have already returned to duty," Parnell said. "Eight service members remain listed as severely injured and are receiving the highest level of medical care."

The latest and most critical overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Military Attacks

The US and Israel are conducting strikes against Iran, hitting thousands of targets across the country and degrading missile launchers and command networks

B-52 bombers have been used to strike Iranian ballistic missile and command-and-control sites

More than 1,000 civilians have been killed according to a preliminary count by Human Rights Activists News Agency

Israel struck Iranian drone launch squads, though the White House cannot confirm reports of 150 US troops injured

A drone strike in Iraq's Kurdistan region killed a member of an Iranian Kurdish armed opposition group, with the group blaming Iran for the attack

Regional Impact

The UAE's air defenses are intercepting missile and drone attacks from Iran, with loud bangs heard in Dubai

Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport, injuring four people including two Ghanaian nationals and one Bangladeshi national

Turkish President Erdogan warned the war must be stopped before it engulfs the region in flames

The UAE President wrote a patriotic poem performed by the national orchestra honoring those protecting the nation

Energy Market

The International Energy Agency is considering releasing emergency oil reserves of 300-400 million barrels, potentially the largest in its history

The IEA is recommending a release of oil from strategic reserves exceeding 100 million barrels over the first month, according to sources

Brent crude futures rose 5% to $92.47 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate climbed 5.8% to $88.27 early Wednesday

Wood Mackenzie consultancy warns of oil prices potentially reaching $150+ per barrel due to the supply shock

Brent crude briefly surged to $119.5 per barrel late Sunday in one of the most dramatic spikes in recent oil-market history

Strait of Hormuz

President Trump threatened Iran in a Truth Social post with "military consequences" at a level "never seen before" if they were to place mines in the Strait.

Iran unleashes naval mines across the critical waterway, followed by US military announcing 16 IRGC mine-laying ships in the area were "eliminated"

Reuters says the US naval fleet is not ready for convoys through Strait

US Secretary Wright deleted the tweet on US Navy escorted oil tanker through Strait - WH says premature

IRGC Commander slams Wright for fake news

Three vessels hit by projectiles in Strait of Hormuz

Diplomatic Developments

Russia is constantly in touch with Iranian leadership and willing to contribute to efforts to stabilize the region, according to the Kremlin

Russian media argues that negotiations with the US always end with missiles hitting capitals, questioning Trump's peace deal efforts

President Trump warned Iran against laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening military consequences at a level never seen before

US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years (Before Iran-Triggered Oil Spike)

March 11, 2026 - 8:39am

US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years (Before Iran-Triggered Oil Spike)

While all attention is currently on Iran (and the energy impact of actions overseas), today's CPI (for February) should not be affected by the recent surge in WTI (but March's data definitely will be)...

Source: Bloomberg

Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected), lifting prices by 2.4% YoY (unchanged from the prior month at the lowest since May 2025)...

Source: Bloomberg

The disinflation trend is still your friend as the terrors of tariff-flation remain non-evident, much to the disappointment of establishment economists.

Core Services remain the biggest driver of CPI with Core Goods relatvely unmoved (and Energy starting to pick up)...

CPI rose 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in January, and in line with estimates. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 2.4%, also in line with estimates and unchanged from January.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in February and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.4% over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.3% . The index for energy also increased in February, rising 0.6 percent.

Core CPI also met expectations with a +0.2% MoM move, leaving prices up 2.45% YoY - the lowest since March 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI Services are also the main driver of Core CPI (but are seeing significant disinflation)...

Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM in February; Over the last 12 months, core CPI rose 2.5%, also in line with estimates and unchanged from January.

Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, apparel, household furnishings and operations, airline fares, and education. Conversely, the indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, and personal care were among the major indexes that decreased in February.
The energy index increased 0.5% for the 12 months ending February. The food index increased 3.1% over the last year.

Some more details on the core print

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in February, following a 0.3% increase in January.
- The shelter index increased 0.2% over the month as did the owners’ equivalent rent index.
- The index for rent increased 0.1% in February, the smallest 1-month increase in that index since January 2021.

The lodging away from home index rose 1.0% over the month. The medical care index increased 0.5% in February, after rising 0.3% in January.
The index for hospital services increased 0.6% over the month and the index for physicians’ services rose 0.3%.
- Conversely, the prescription drugs index decreased 0.2% in February
The index for apparel increased 1.3% over the month, after rising 0.3% in January. The household furnishings and operations index rose 0.3% in February and the airline fares index rose 1.4%.
The index for education rose 0.2% over the month.
The new vehicles index was unchanged in February.
The communication index declined 0.5% in February and the used cars and trucks index decreased 0.4% over the month.
The index for motor vehicle insurance decreased 0.3% in February and the index for personal care fell 0.2%

SuperCore CPI (Services ex-Shelter) lifted very modestly on a YoY basis with Medical Care Services the biggest driver...

While typically, a hot (or cold) CPI would drive stocks and bonds dramatically, we remain beholden to the slings and arrows of outrageous crude oil price fortune (for now) with rate-cut odds remaining near recent (hawkish) cycle lows.

Interestingly Fuel Oil costs soared MoM...

Both Goods and Services costs are signaling disinflation (ahead of March's potentially explosive moves)...

The question is - how long will the impact of soaring energy costs impact CPI?

Is it different this time?

The policy sensitive two-year yield was around 1.5 basis points higher at 3.605% after the report, while swaps linked to Fed meeting dates implied traders see 34 basis points of easing this year, versus around 35 basis points earlier in the session. The market continues to price the first full quarter-point reduction arriving in September or October.

Longer-dated Treasuries were under more pressure, with the yield on 10-year notes two basis points higher at 4.18%. Later in New York, Treasury will sell $39 billion of the current 10-year issue.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 08:39

Stocks Drop As Oil Rebounds Over $90 On Escalating War, Ignoring Looming SPR Release

March 11, 2026 - 8:28am

Stocks Drop As Oil Rebounds Over $90 On Escalating War, Ignoring Looming SPR Release

US equity futures remain extremely illiquid, jittery and volatile, and are down 10bps near the morning lows, erasing a 0.5% gain after earlier rebounding on hopes the upcoming SPR release will keep oil lower (it has so far failed to do that). Global equities saw a leg lower during APAC hours following an FT report that JPMorgan is marking down private credit portfolios. Mixed messaging from the Trump administration has helped fuel sharp swings in volatility gauges, with the VVIX jumping 10 points on Tuesday. As of 8:10am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, as Oracle’s 10% climb in the pre-market offers support to the AI trade, while inflation is back in focus with today’s CPI print. The ORCL print supports optimism across the secular AI data center trade with focus on raised FY27 rev guidance on management's expectations for continued expansion in AI and advanced compute demand. Asia is leading overseas with TWSE up 410bps, NKY up 143bps, Europe flat to lower led on the downside by Germany down 67bps. In commodities, crude up 300bps feels like a non-event vs. intra day swings over the last seven trading days. Oil does, however, remain in focus as strikes continued across the Middle East overnight, with the UK Navy noting three vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The IEA is proposing a record release of up to 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves — more than double the amount deployed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as explained here, it is unlikely the release will do much for a sustained drop in prices. Moves elsewhere in commodities benign. Yields elevated ahead of CPI with 10-year at 4.17%, dollar bid back with DXY at $99 and Bitcoin lower down 1% just below $70k. German CPI in line at +1.9%. We’ll get US CPI at 8:30am ET this morning.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon +0.1%, Meta -0.01%, Nvidia +0.2%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%). Tesla rises 0.2% after Business Insider reported that the company is ramping up an AI agent project

AeroVironment (AVAV) falls 10% after the drone maker cut its revenue guidance for the full year. Analysts trim their price targets, while Citizens noted that some of the weakness stems from defense deals getting delayed.
Campbell’s Co. (CPB) falls 5% after the food company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
Domo (DOMO) rises 38% after the enterprise software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations.
Nike (NKE) gains 2% after Barclays upgraded the sportswear retailer to overweight, citing recent operational progress, financial inflections and management’s disciplined actions.
Oracle (ORCL) rises 9% after the company posted strong results and gave an outlook that suggested there is little letup in demand for AI computing.
Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) climbs 12% after the developer of AI-powered delivery robots posted fourth quarter results. Also, the company and White Castle launched a delivery pact via Uber Eats.
UniFirst Corp. (UNF) rises 8% after Cintas Corp. agreed to buy the uniform maker in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $5.5 billion
Upstart (UPST) rises 2% as the firm plans to apply for a US national bank charter, aiming to reduce costs and streamline its AI-based lending platform

In other AI news, the Chinese government moved to curb the usage of OpenClaw for banks and state agencies amid a user rush to adopt the AI agent. Amazon is making its debut in the euro bond market with a record eight-part sale, with maturities ranging from two to 38 years, following the 11-part dollar sale on Tuesday to fund AI investments. Elsewhere, Nintendo surged due to the surprise success of its new Pokémon game.

US futures are struggling for direction and Brent climbed back above $90 a barrel as an expected record release of crude stockpiles failed to lift sentiment amid attacks on vessels in the Middle East, simply because it will do little to offset the daily supply taken out by the Strait blockade. Volatility continued to grip equities, with S&P 500 contracts erasing a 0.5% advance, and it's nowhere near over: equities are “set for days of upcoming volatility, as the conflict in the Middle East is far from being resolved,” according to Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at Societe Generale adding that “Moving forward, there are high chances of seeing alternating risk‑on and risk‑off days.” The “markets’ starting point from when the conflict began was quite high so it’s also some excess optimism being cut to risk premiums which appears closer to what we perceive as the fundamentals.”

Sentiment was also dented as JPMorgan restricted some lending to private credit funds after marking down the value of certain loans in their portfolios, the latest sign of stress in the $1.8 trillion industry.

As the Iranian conflict rages on with no sign of de-escalation, the UK Navy said three ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Governments are seeking to contain the spike in energy prices, with the International Energy Agency proposing a release of emergency oil reserves of as much as 400 million barrels, according to a person familiar.

“It’s helpful, but it’s more a short-term fix,” said Richard Saldanha, global equity fund manager at Aviva Investors. “The reality is, the way we’re going to avoid any kind of long-term shock is the Strait of Hormuz re-opening again.”

In the latest oil news, the IEA will propose the biggest-ever release of oil reserves. The potential 400 million barrels would cover days of global demand. OPEC’s monthly deep-dive analysis on the global crude market will likely draw more attention than usual.

The US CPI print will be closely watched as stagflation concerns resurface. Bloomberg Chief US Economist Anna Wong expects the reading to be “unseasonally tame,” citing disinflationary effects from several heavily weighted components, while two new supply shocks - in metals and memory chips - were building pre-Iran. Derivatives strategists at Barclays say the S&P 500’s implied move for Wednesday is materially higher than recent history with the forward volatility term structure having shifted higher amid market stress.

The consumer price index report is projected to show a core inflation measure, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rising 0.2% last month. That would suggest some easing in price pressures before the outbreak of the war. Money markets are leaning toward a Federal Reserve rate cut in July and the possibility of a second move in December.

“Even with geopolitics in the foreground, investors still want CPI to validate the ‘disinflation-with-room-for-cuts’ narrative rather than re‑ignite a sticky‑inflation scare,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg.

Inflation expectations are building in international markets with European assets facing challenges because cost pressures concerns have soared rapidly, and an ECB rate hike is potentially closer than thought, according to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir.

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% to 603.44 with 417 members down, 171 up. The upside in energy prices and mounting bets that the ECB will hike rates have knocked European stocks lower with the Stoxx 600 down 0.8%, although off the lows of the day as oil trimmed gains; retail and automotive stocks outperforming, while industrial goods and real estate underperforming. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

Balfour Beatty shares surge as much 13% to a record high after the construction group announced better profits and a larger buyback than expected
Inditex shares gain 5.2%, outperforming European peers, after the Zara parent reported strong results for 2025 and gave a trading update for 1Q that analysts called “reassuring.” Shares are 2.8% lower YTD
Orlen gains as much as 4.2% to the highest since Nov. 2017 after PKO and Santander both raised the Polish energy group to buy, expecting higher refining and gas margins from disruptions in the Middle East
Avolta shares climb as much as 4.6% after the travel retailer reported solid results, announced a buyback and confirmed its 2026 outlook, despite uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East
Wacker Chemie shares rise as much as 10% after the German chemicals firm posted better-than-expected guidance for 2026 on the back of its semiconductor polysilicon unit and cost savings
Elis shares rise as much as 7.7%, the biggest jump in 11 months, after the workwear specialist delivered in-line results and outlined a bigger buyback for this year than expected
CVC Capital shares fall as much as 7.4% to a new low as the private equity and investment advisory company cuts guidance for performance-related earnings again
Legal & General shares fall as much as 6.2%, the most in 11 months, as the insurer and asset manager’s solvency ratio, an indication of financial strength, proves lower than expected
Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 6.3% after the German defense company’s sales outlook fell short of analyst expectations. Oddo BHF says the print is slightly disappointing when it comes both to results and 2026 guidance
Canal+ shares drop as much as 21%, the sharpest fall on record, as challenges at newly-acquired MultiChoice Group weigh on sentiment and detract from positive trends in the rest of the business
Galenica shares fall as much as 5.3% after UBS lowers earnings per share expectations for the Swiss pharmacy operator through 2028, citing a weak flu season and the strong franc
BW LPG falls as much as 10%, the most in almost nine months, after DNB Carnegie gives the maritime gas transportation company its only sell rating and sets a new Street-low PT to reflect an uncertain near-term outlook

Earlier, Asian stocks - which are now due for a painful catch down - rose as oil prices cooled, easing concerns about a major inflation shock for the region’s energy-import-dependent economies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2%, adding to Tuesday’s 3.2% advance. Shares of chip giants such as TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix were among the biggest contributors to the rally after better-than-expected earnings from Oracle Corp., which pushed the cloud infrastructure company’s stock up nearly 10% in extended US trading. Oil climbed back near $90 a barrel after the close of trading in several Asian markets, paring the previous session’s 11% plunge, as vessels in the Middle East came under fire amid ongoing military strikes. Volatility across financial markets continued to be high as mixed messages from the Trump administration over the war in Iran kept investors on edge.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index faded losses as the risk tone deteriorated and is now flat. Aussie dollar is the clear outperformer across the majors as traders expect the RBA to deliver another rate hike next week.

In rates, treasury yields nudged higher ahead of the February inflation print; long-end yields are about 2bps higher as oil advance weighs globally. US front-end yields are little changed, slightly extending Tuesday’s curve-steepening move; 10-year near 4.17% is higher by less than 2bps with German and UK counterparts cheaper by 5bp and 7bp. European bonds plunged as a central bank official warned the Iranian war could force an earlier-than-expected interest-rate hike. Front-end bonds in Europe remain under pressure with German and UK two-year yields adding 8bps and 10bps respectively. Focal points of US session include February CPI report and $39 billion 10-year auction. Corporate new-issue slate may include Salesforce with a jumbo offering following Tuesday’s single-day volume record.

In commodities, brent crude futures are up 3.4% and largely shrugging off news that the IEA has proposed a 300-400 million barrel reserve release. Spot gold is flat, while silver declines 1.8%. Bitcoin is down 1%.

US economic data slate includes February CPI (8:30am) and federal budget balance (2pm)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.1%,
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%,
Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
Stoxx Europe 600 -1%,
DAX -1.6%,
CAC 40 -1%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.17%
VIX +0.8 points at 25.73
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1200.97,
euro -0.1% at $1.1596
WTI crude +5.2% at $87.79/barrel

Top Overnight News

Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue. The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days. CNN
The IEA is proposing a record release of up to 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves — more than double the amount deployed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a person familiar said. Japan is set to release oil reserves by itself as early as Monday, NHK reported, citing PM Sanae Takaichi. BBG
The Trump administration believes it can withstand a brief spike in oil prices — for as many as four weeks, as one person close to the White House suggested — before the political hit does lasting damage. Politico
JPMorgan Chase has clamped down on its lending to private credit groups, with bankers looking to cut risks as concerns mount over the credit quality of companies in their stables.
Global bonds face more declines as traders bet inflation fallout from the Iran war will push central banks to raise rates. Markets are pricing two hikes in Australia and see the BOJ and ECB among candidates to also tighten. BBG
Lebanon's Hezbollah is applying lessons from its last war with Israel as it braces for a possible full-scale Israeli invasion and protracted conflict, returning to its roots in guerrilla warfare in south Lebanon, four Lebanese sources said. RTRS
The UK Navy said three vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. BBG
China moved to restrict government agencies and state firms from running OpenClaw AI apps on office computers. BBG
ECB’s Christine Lagarde said policy makers will ensure the Iran war doesn’t cause the same inflation surge as Russia’s Ukraine invasion did. BBG
Senators Warner (D) and Rounds (R) are to introduce new legislation focused on AI and the workforce: Axios
CPI Preview from Goldman: Expect a 0.17% increase in February core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.42% (vs. +2.5% consensus). Expect a 0.18% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting higher food (+0.1%) and energy (+0.5%) prices. GS forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in February.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher as the recent easing of oil prices helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and reports of Iran beginning to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. ASX 200 gained with strength in mining, resources, materials and financials, front-running the advances, but with upside capped amid increased bets for the RBA to hike rates at next week's meeting following recent central bank rhetoric and calls by some of Australia's largest banks for consecutive rate increases in March and May. Nikkei 225 rallied following the recent easing of oil price pressures and as softer-than-expected PPI data, which showed a surprise monthly deflation, supports the case for a delay in BoJ policy normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid quiet catalysts and with Chinese officials said to be frustrated by what they see as insufficient US preparation for the Trump-Xi summit later this month, while China also moved to curb the use of OpenClaw AI by banks and state agencies.

Top Asian News

Japan's government is considering measures amid Middle East tensions and will announce gas and utility price measures at an appropriate time, according to Nikkei.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.0%) are entirely in the red, as the Iran conflict intensifies. Losses in the IBEX 35 (-0.4%) have been limited after positive Inditex (+0.8%) earnings, which beat Q4 EBIT estimates and boosted capex following a strong start to 2026. The DAX 40 (-1.2%) underperforms after Rheinmetall (-6.2%) missed FY net income and guided softer 2026 revenue than analysts expected. European sectors are broadly weaker across the board, as Energy (+0.3%) continues to gain. Real Estate (-1.3%) and Financial Services (-1.3%), alongside Industrial Goods and Services (-1.8%), sit at the bottom of the pile, with higher yields and risk tone weighing on the sectors.

Top European News

European Commission draft Citizens' Energy Package recommends concrete measures to lower household energy prices, Handelsblatt reported; aim is to lower electricity taxes to a minimum.

Central Banks

ECB's de Guindos said risks are tilted to the downside, macroeconomic projections will be much more complicated now.
ECB's Kazaks said the ECB could act if war raises inflation expectations.
ECB's Kazimir said a rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought; no reason to act at next week's meeting.
ECB’s Villeroy said he does not expect a rate hike at next week's ECB meeting, said energy costs are a minor part of consumer spending, said banks should stay calm amid the Iran crisis.
ECB's Nagel said the ECB will act decisively if an energy spike feeds into durably higher inflation; the risk of higher inflation has risen, economic outlook has deteriorated; the latest US statements on Iran war offer cause for hope.
Westpac and National Australia Bank now expect the RBA to hike rates in March and May.

FX

DXY is choppy this morning; currently trading around the unchanged mark, within a narrow 96.69-99.07 range. Little fresh from a European perspective, as focus remains on newsflow out of Iran. As it stands, the current conflict is showing few signs of ending, with reports now suggesting that Iran is taking steps to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. On the energy front, the IEA Governing Board is meeting today, whilst a separate G7 discussion on energy coordination is also scheduled for 14:00 GMT today. It was recently reported that the IEA proposed a 300-400mln barrel release of stockpiles – sources suggest that, should there be no objections, it could be announced as soon as today. Focus later will also be on US CPI, though it may lack signalling capacity given the current geopolitical situation.
The Aussie extends on recent outperformance, as more banks now expect the RBA to hike rates at next week’s meeting. NAB and Westpac are the latest banks seen supporting a hike, joining the likes of Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Delving into Westpac briefly, the bank previously forecast a hike in May, but the analysts now believe that the RBA will be “compelled to react” to the recent strength in oil prices. AUD/USD currently trades towards the upper end of a 0.71154 to 0.7185 range.
Other G10s are trading modestly on either side of the unchanged mark vs the USD. The Loonie posts mild gains, given today’s strength in oil prices, whilst the JPY is the slight laggard, joined by the EUR. USD/JPY is venturing back into the touted “intervention zone”, beyond the 158.00 mark - though desks question the efficacy of intervening as the Iran war continues. GBP is essentially flat, awaiting cues from the Treasury Committee, which will question the Chancellor Reeves on the Spring Statement. BoE’s Breeden is also set to speak.
For the EUR, currently trades just above the 1.1600 mark, within a 1.15904-1.1645 range. Today, there was a slew of ECB speakers, with particular focus on Kazimir who suggested that a rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought. This spurred some very modest upside in the EUR at the time, but was ultimately short-lived, given that he stated there is no reason to move rates at the next meeting.

Fixed Income

APAC trade for fixed income was for the most part rangebound, with USTs and Bunds holding a handful of ticks in the red. JGBs also opened under pressure, with downside of 20 ticks at most. However, the move proved short lived as strong demand at the 5yr JGB tap underpinned the benchmark and lifted it to a 131.98 high, just shy of yesterday's 132.01 best.
While relatively contained at first, EGBs came under renewed pressure early doors following ECB speak and a further uptick in energy benchmarks. Sending Bunds to a 126.55 trough over the course of the morning. On the former, Kazimir said an Iran-related rate hike could be closer than thought, though clarified that there is no reason to act in March. Near term market pricing has seen a very slight hawkish move this morning, but more pertinently end-2026 pricing implies around 25bps of tightening.
In geopols, the UKMTO update seemingly spurred another leg higher in the crude space, with additional impetus potentially coming from the ongoing reporting around but lack of action on a reserve release.
Moving to Gilts, the benchmark opened lower by over 50 ticks and has since slipped another 30 or so to a 90.27 base. Currently lagging, posting downside of 78 ticks vs 63 for Bunds. Action is very much occurring in tandem with the EGB move. Additionally, the UK has a packed agenda with Chancellor Reeves discussing her Spring Statement with the TSC, the release of Mandelson-related files by the government (around 12:30GMT) and then an appearance from BoE's Breeden, however this is scheduled to be on stablecoins.
Vnet (VNET) , China's largest data centre operator, is considering a dollar bond sale to fund expansion, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
Amazon (AMZN) opens books on eight-part EUR denominated bond offering.
Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.69x (prev. 3.10x), average yield 1.633% (prev. 1.640%).
Australia sold AUD 1bln 4.25% October 2036 bonds, b/c 3.87, avg. yield 4.9002%.

Commodities

WTI and Brent front-month futures have been grinding higher since early European hours following a choppy APAC session and the declines seen during the prior session. Yesterday, there was a bout of selling pressure after US Energy Secretary Wright mistakenly posted that the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, although oil then pared some of the losses as the post was deleted shortly after, and the White House confirmed that this was false.
Note, the IEA Governing Board is meeting today, whilst a separate G7 discussion on energy coordination is also scheduled for 14:00 GMT today. It was recently reported that the IEA proposed a 300-400mln barrel release of stockpiles – sources suggest that, should there be no objections, it could be announced as soon as later today.
Spot gold holds an upward bias on either side of the USD 5,200/oz level, with the precious metal kept afloat alongside the recent easing in oil price pressures, although DXY has clambered off worst levels as eyes remain on flows in the Strait of Hormuz. A deterioration in sentiment in early European hours cushions downside for the yellow metal for now, which resides in a narrow USD 5,175.35-5,223.38/oz at the time of writing.
Copper futures traded rangebound overnight but then slipped in early European hours amid a broader deterioration of sentiment as the Iranian war shows no signs of ending despite recent commentary from US President Trump. 3M LME copper is back under USD 13,000/t and resides towards the bottom end of a USD 12,993.00-13,151.53/t at the time of writing.
G7 statement said the group is vigilantly monitoring the energy market, and G7 supports in principle the use of strategic oil reserve.
IEA to recommend the release of strategic reserves, according to sources; volume in the first month would reportedly exceed 100mln barrels.
IEA reportedly proposed oil stockpile release of around 300-400mln barrels, according to Bloomberg; decision is possible later on Wednesday, said a source.
IEA has proposed the largest ever release of oil from strategic reserves to bring down the price of crude, according to WSJ. "Countries would decide Wednesday whether to release oil stocks in an attempt to tame crude prices". "The release would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil that IEA member countries put onto the market in two releases in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine".
As part of a potential 400mln barrel IEA crude release, Germany would release around 19.5mln barrels, Handelsblatt reports citing sources; equating to around 20% of Germany's reserves
Black Sea CPC blend oil exports were reportedly revised down to around 1.4-1.5mln BPD for March (prev. 1.7mln BPD)
White House reportedly believes it can "withstand a brief spike in oil prices — for as many as four weeks... before the political hit does lasting damage", according to Politico citing sources.
Iraq's oil ministry has sent a letter to the Kurdistan regional government for the export of at least 100k BPD via the Kurdistan pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan, according to oil officials.
EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe's dependency on fossil fuels have cost it EUR 3bln in extra costs in the first 10 days of the Iran war, returning to Russian fossil fuels in the current crisis would be a strategic blunder. EU is preparing options to lower energy prices, which include better use of purchase power agreements and CFDs, state aid measures, gas price subsidies or caps.
Maersk (MAERSKB DC) CEO tells the WSJ that 10 ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf and would need at least 10 days to resume normal operations if a ceasefire was to occur.
Glencore (GLEN LN) workers reportedly set to conduct a strike at Australian copper refinery, according to Bloomberg.

Geopolitics

Iran's Joint Command Spox said US and Israeli banks will be hit after an attack on an Iranian bank, via IRNA.
Iran’s IRGC said it carried out its heaviest and most intense attacks since the start of the war, targeting US and Israeli assets across the region, according to WSJ.
IRGC said it launched missiles carrying 2-ton warheads in a new wave of heavy, multi-warhead strikes targeting US bases in Iraq and Bahrain as well as Israel.
Iran's police chief said anyone taking to the streets at the enemy's request will be confronted as an enemy and not a protester, adds security forces are prepared to respond and have their fingers on the trigger.
Iran launches new wave of missiles on occupied territories.
Iranian armed forces spokesperson vows retaliation for Israeli and US strikes on residential areas.
US officials said Iran has laid less than 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz and it is unclear if it intends to lay more in the near term, according to WSJ.
Drone reportedly hits a US diplomatic facility in Iraq, according to Washington Post.
US Central Command said US forces eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels on March 10th, including 16 mine layers near the Strait of Hormuz.
Air defenses shoot down a drone targeting a US military base near Erbil Airport in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Israeli army announces massive wave of raids on Tehran, targeting Iranian regime infrastructure.
UAE Defence Ministry reported air defences are currently intercepting missiles and drones from Iran.
Israel rejects Lebanon's request for a halt in fighting to allow for talks, according to FT.
UKMTO said it has received a report of an incident 50NM north-west of Dubai, with a bulk carrier hit by an unknown projectile.
Russia's Kremlin said Istanbul is an possible location for talks next week but there is no specific clarity yet.
North Korea conducted strategic cruise missile tests on Tuesday for a naval destroyer, while Leader Kim said destroyers must be equipped with supersonic weapons, according to KCNA.

US event calendar

7:00 am: United States Mar 6 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 11%
8:30 am: United States Feb CPI MoM, est. 0.29%, prior 0.2%
8:30 am: United States Feb Core CPI MoM, est. 0.23%, prior 0.3%
8:30 am: United States Feb CPI YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
8:30 am: United States Feb Core CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.5%
2:00 pm: United States Feb Federal Budget Balance, est. -310b, prior -94.62b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After an extraordinary start to 2026, a small – and possibly brief – pocket of relative calm has returned to markets. I'd stress the emphasis on the word relative. The year has already delivered Venezuela, Greenland, an early year JGB slump, a surge and subsequent slump in gold and silver, IEEPA tariffs being overturned, sharp falls in software and other AI sensitive stocks, private credit fears, major breakthroughs from Claude and Anthropic, and viral, vibe-driven commentary from Matt Shumer and Citrini Research that wiped more than a trillion dollars off global equity markets amid fears of disruption and millions of imminent job losses. We have also seen the KOSPI rise more than 50% in the first handful of weeks of the year, only to fall into a bear market before rebounding. And now we find ourselves in the middle of the Iranian conflict. Have I missed anything? In nearly 31 years of doing this job, I’ve experienced many years dominated by huge headlines and crises, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen the narrative shift so rapidly over such a short period. What is equally impressive is that most asset markets remain healthily positive for the year.

Until we move onto the next big event, markets continue to be driven by volatile news flow around Iran and the outlook for oil flows. Overall, the narrative has shifted towards a cautiously more optimistic tone, even as there’s little sign of an imminent end to the conflict. The improved optimism helped drive a dramatic fall in oil prices, with Brent crude down -11.28% from Monday’s European close to $87.80/bbl, marking its largest one-day decline since March 2022. The 12-month Brent future also fell by -1.93% to $72.05/bbl. After some volatility late yesterday, Brent is slightly lower again this morning and is around -27% below Monday’s intra-day highs but still about +20% above where it was before the US and Israeli strikes against Iran.

While much of the oil decline had come after Trump comments late on Monday, the move extended on Tuesday, notably after Saudi Aramco said it will ramp up crude flows via its pipeline to the Red Sea to 7mb/day within a few days, which would allow it to resume 70% of its usual oil shipments. While redirection of crude via this route was expected, it was still seen as good news as questions remained over its exact capacity. And while reporting over potential mining of the Strait of Hormuz saw oil prices bounce late in the US session, they moved lower again overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that the IEA (International Energy Agency) has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in history to combat rising prices. IEA member countries are expected to decide on the proposal today, while G7 leaders will also today discuss the response to the crisis, according to Canada’s Mark Carney.

Brent even moved as low as $81/bbl shortly after the European close yesterday as US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted that the US had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this post was soon deleted and the White House confirmed that no such operation took place. And not long after, President Trump posted that Iran would face consequences “at a level never seen before” if it placed any mines in the Strait of Hormuz. That came as CNN reported that Iran was beginning to lay mines in the straits. Those headlines saw Brent move back towards $92/bbl, before declining again following the WSJ report on the planned oil reserve release.

Easing oil market stress sparked a strong rally in risk assets yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+1.88%) recording its best day since last April. And while more concerning headlines late in the US session saw the S&P 500 (-0.21%) erase its gains, futures on the S&P 500 are +0.32% higher overnight. As I started typing this, they were +0.5% higher but an FT story has just been released suggesting JP Morgan have "clamped down on its lending to private credit groups" and have "marked down the value of certain loans in their portfolios". Asian markets are also off their highs but still up strongly with the Nikkei (+1.99%) and Kospi (+2.52%) leading the gains in Asia this morning.

The volatility late in the US session did mean that the S&P 500 (-0.21%) closed nearly a percentage point off intra-day highs, with the equal-weight S&P 500 seeing a larger -0.82% decline. And the VIX index closed at 24.93, a modest -0.57pts lower on the day and notably above its intra-day low of 22.19. Still, while there remains plenty of caution, financial stress has eased materially since the start of the week when the VIX reached 35 at Monday’s open. And despite the recent volatility, the S&P 500 is still less than 3% from its record high on January 27. Some of the risk premium was also stripped out of other assets, with US high yield spreads tightening by -9bps while the dollar index (-0.35%) recorded its largest daily fall in the past month.

The Mag-7 have played a big role in supporting the relative resilience of US equities, with the index now +1.15% above its levels before the strikes after a +0.38% gain yesterday. The tech mood was also helped by Oracle’s results after the US close last night, with a strong sales forecast sending its stock +8% higher in after-hours trading.

Although developments in the Middle East remained the dominant driver, the latest US economic data also reinforced the picture of resilience. ADP’s weekly private payrolls report showed a four-week average of 15.5k for the period up to February 21, equivalent to around 62k on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, US existing home sales surprised to the upside in February, rising to an annualised pace of 4.09mn (vs 3.88mn expected). These releases helped mitigate concerns following the weakness in last Friday’s jobs report and pushed yields higher. A surge in corporate bonds sales added some upward pressure on yields, with a soft 3yr auction and volatile oil headlines leaving 10yr yields (+6.0bps to 4.16%) at the session’s highs by the close. Treasuries are reversing some of this move overnight, with the 10yr yield down -1.6bps.

US data remains firmly in focus today with the release of the February CPI report. This is a key print, as the recent oil shock has pushed back market expectations for the next Fed rate cut. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, today’s data will help shape expectations for subsequent decisions. Our US economists are watching for tariff related strength in core goods, particularly apparel, alongside recent gains in wholesale used car prices. Overall, they expect headline CPI to rise by +0.27%, boosted by a +1.0% increase in energy prices, keeping the year-on-year rate at +2.4%. Core CPI is forecast at +0.24% month on month, leaving the annual rate unchanged at +2.5%. For more detail, see their full preview here.

In Europe, markets rallied sharply as investors finally had the chance to react to Trump’s comments made after the previous day’s close. All major equity indices surged, including the DAX (+2.39%), FTSE 100 (+1.59%) and CAC 40 (+1.79%). Fixed income markets also saw large moves, as the fall in oil prices prompted investors to rapidly scale back expectations for rate hikes this year. Overnight index swaps are now pricing just 17bps of ECB tightening in 2026, down from 30bps at Monday’s close, while BoE pricing for December moved from pricing 1-2bps of hikes to 16bps of cuts by the close. As a result, 10 year gilt yields dropped by -9.3bps, their biggest daily fall since the reaction to the 90 day tariff delay after Liberation Day last year, while 2 year gilt yields fell -12.3bps. Moves in German bunds were more muted, with the 10 year yield down only -2.0bps to 2.83%, although the 2 year yield declined by a larger -6.4bps. Overall, the backdrop now looks much closer to the scenario outlined by our European economists here, which envisages a moderate and transitory shock rather than one that would prompt ECB tightening.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation (PPI) slowed for a third consecutive month in February (+2.0% y/y) down from +2.3% in January and coming in slightly below the 2.2% forecast. This moderation was largely facilitated by government fuel subsidies, providing a temporary buffer against rising commodity costs. Nevertheless, economists warn that the benefits may be short-lived due to the escalating oil prices.

Looking ahead, today brings the US February CPI and the federal budget balance. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman and the ECB’s Guindos and Schnabel. Notable earnings include Telecom Italia, and there is also a 10-year US Treasury auction.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 08:28

Insurance As A Weapon: How The Strait Of Hormuz Shapes Global Power And Energy Markets

March 11, 2026 - 7:20am

Insurance As A Weapon: How The Strait Of Hormuz Shapes Global Power And Energy Markets

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

War is raging in Iran. Amid the fog of propaganda, it is increasingly difficult to separate fact from fiction, to distinguish AI-generated material from actual bomb strikes, and to see behind the carefully woven veil of media spin and national interests. Yet, we attempt here to make sense of the latest moves on the geopolitical chessboard.

One immediate consequence of the Strait of Hormuz blockade is a fatal ripple effect in the energy sector. Companies such as QatarEnergy are forced to reduce gas and oil production. Refineries are shutting down, and tankers can no longer transport output. The physical logistics of the energy market are faltering – with consequences far beyond the region.

Markets are responding nervously. Both spot and futures prices continue to climb. At the close of New York trading, WTI crude stood at around $93 per barrel, nearly a twenty percent increase since the U.S.-Israeli intervention against Iran’s Ayatollah regime.

From a European perspective, the implications are clear. The highly energy-dependent continent is increasingly politically adrift. For many governments, a lot is at stake if prices are not swiftly brought under control. Rising energy costs, growing production expenses, and mounting burdens on households and businesses threaten a new economic stress test for Europe.

For a week, Brussels has been in frenetic motion. Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission stages media-friendly exercises that amount to little more than political shadowboxing: attempting to solve a shortage problem that cannot be eliminated through domestic production. Member states are currently discussing joint purchasing consortia and familiar tools such as subsidies and cost offsets for energy-intensive industries – the usual toolkit, deployed repeatedly in the past. In other words, much of it boils down to massive debt accumulation intended to temporarily alleviate the effects of the Hormuz blockade.

Looking to Germany, one sees how vulnerable Europe’s energy architecture remains. The rapid decline of gas storage levels underscores the importance of a robust strategic reserve.

In this context, the European decision to mandate a strategic oil reserve equivalent to at least ninety days of average consumption was farsighted. The timing and scale of reserve deployment remain uncertain.

A note on the disproportionately high gasoline prices in Germany: this is precisely the effect when a high-taxing fiscal state claims roughly 65 percent of the retail price. In an energy crisis, this structure paradoxically makes the state a short-term beneficiary of rising prices.

The Europeans’ inability to act was epitomized by German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider of the not-so-social Social Democrats. Faced with rising fuel costs, he bluntly recommended that Germans switch to electric cars. This cynical stance – coming from the security of a well-padded, subsidized political bubble – makes the attitude so unbearable. Those who drive the country economically – millions of commuters dependent on cars for their livelihood – are dismissed entirely.

Naturally, the expansion of renewable energy and the continued commitment to the green transition remain central points on the EU agenda. They simply cannot escape their closed, ideologically narrow argumentative framework.

Other options remain politically taboo. The exploration of domestic gas reserves in Europe or the long-term maintenance of coal-fired power – even in Germany – is still not seriously considered. The pressure on political decision-makers has evidently not yet reached a level sufficient to return to a pragmatic, rational energy policy.

From the U.S. perspective, the Hormuz blockade and the planned political power shift in Tehran fit into a larger strategic concept. Control over oil and gas flows from Venezuela, combined with the U.S.’s record domestic production, could create a significant problem for China, which is existentially dependent on imports from these regions.

Should the U.S. achieve its political objectives in Tehran, a massive shift of power would tilt in its favor. Together with the oil states more closely bound to its power structure, it could dominate the global energy market and substantially strengthen its position relative to Beijing.

This is of critical significance for future negotiations with China. It concerns not only energy but also access to rare earths, curbing Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, and the so-called fentanyl war, where the last word has certainly not yet been spoken.

Another observation is worth noting. In this reorganizing geopolitical power constellation, which is largely determined by access to energy and strategic resources, Europe has largely lost its strategic agency. Between the U.S., Russia, and China, it barely emerges as an independent actor.

Europe has thus accomplished a remarkable feat: politically caught between all stools – and now standing as a dependent price-taker in energy markets, with its back to the wall.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has also shaken a previously overlooked market: maritime insurance. Following Tehran’s threat to close the strait, several tanker attacks occurred off the coast. Insurance premiums soared, and major providers – a market dominated by the City of London – immediately withdrew. Risks were too high, and coverage in the event of a claim could no longer be guaranteed.

This was the decisive moment: U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) would step into the gap. State-backed war and political risk coverage at “very reasonable” prices, as he put it, would provide relief. This creates a government-supported competitor to Lloyd’s. The U.S. is not only supplying insurance capacity but combining it politically with U.S. naval escorts – gunboats.

For the now virtually invisible British Empire in financial and insurance markets, this – following massive attacks on the London-based LBMA precious metals markets – would be the next pillar of its power structure to wobble, a framework previously sustained mainly through international trade.

In short: the next geopolitical lever for the U.S. comes into view, should it capture a significant portion of this insurance business. Whoever controls the underwriting lever – who decides which risks are covered and which tankers receive a policy – wields a massive sanctioning instrument. Insurance has thus become a geostrategic tool, with Europe left on the sidelines.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 07:20

Seniors Hit With Billions In Extra Premiums From Medicare Overpayments: Report

March 11, 2026 - 6:55am

Seniors Hit With Billions In Extra Premiums From Medicare Overpayments: Report

Private insurers are padding their pockets with billions in alleged overpayments from Medicare Advantage, and hardworking American seniors are footing the bill through higher Part B premiums, according to a congressional report obtained by the Wall Street Journal.

The report, issued by the bipartisan Joint Economic Committee, shows that controversial practices, such as adding extra diagnoses to trigger larger government reimbursements, drove up Medicare Part B premiums by $13.4 billion in 2025 alone.

That amounts to roughly 10% higher costs, or more than $200 extra annually, for the average senior on a fixed Social Security income. The impact extends beyond enrollees in Medicare Advantage plans. Traditional Medicare beneficiaries are also paying higher premiums to help subsidize the private plans' gains.

Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), who chairs the committee, said in a statement to the Journal, "Extra spending on Medicare Advantage is not just coming out of the federal government’s budget, a portion of this comes out of you.”

Politicians scream at each other over scraps while Medicare Advantage spits out $84B in overpayments in a single year.

That’s almost $1T in misaligned incentives we could fix in one reconciliation bill that pays for real health, not for coding seniors as sicker. pic.twitter.com/aG0RHSf5Bt
— Rep. David Schweikert (@RepDavid) February 16, 2026

The Journal reports:

Medicare Advantage, which has long enjoyed support from Republicans, has faced growing bipartisan scrutiny. Among the biggest players in the business are UnitedHealth Group, Humana and Elevance Health.

Lawmakers and government investigators have been probing how insurers’ billing practices have contributed to Medicare Advantage costs. A congressional watchdog found Medicare Advantage costs the federal government more than traditional Medicare, partly because of insurers’ billing practices. The insurers are paid more to cover enrollees who have more health conditions, and they can boost their reimbursement by recording more diagnoses.

Medicare Part B, which covers doctor visits, lab tests, and outpatient services, had standard premiums around $185 per month in 2025, deducted directly from Social Security checks. Due to these alleged overpayments, however, everyone pays more for the same benefits.

Speaking to the Journal on Friday, Medicare agency administrator Mehmet Oz said that while he doesn’t believe Medicare Advantage insurers are as overpaid as has been reported, he did concede that, “we should change the rules.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 06:55

Are Bad Bots Taking Over The Web?

March 11, 2026 - 5:45am

Are Bad Bots Taking Over The Web?

The share of global web traffic generated by humans is shrinking, while bot activity is on the rise.

According to Imperva Bad Bot Reports, in 2018, humans still accounted for 62 percent of web traffic, with malicious bots at 20 percent and benign bots at 18 percent.

But over the past seven years, the balance of web traffic has shifted dramatically.

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiat shows in the chart below, humans now represent less than half of all traffic (49 percent in 2024), while malicious bots have surged to 37 percent, accounting for well over twice the traffic of benign bots (14 percent).

You will find more infographics at Statista

This rise in malicious bot activity reflects a growing cybersecurity challenge.

Bad bots are often used to steal login details, collect sensitive data, spread misinformation and manipulate online ads.

Industries like e‑commerce, finance and social media are particularly affected.

Bot fraud is estimated to cost businesses billions each year.

Yet, not all bots are harmful.

Benign bots, such as search engine crawlers and chatbots, play a crucial role in indexing the web and improving user experiences.

However, their declining share suggests that cybercriminals are outpacing legitimate automation.

As AI and machine learning make bots more sophisticated, their growing share of web traffic is likely to remain a defining trend in the years ahead.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 05:45

Dozens Of Oil Tankers Divert To Red Sea As Saudis Reroute Crude Flows From Hormuz Chokepoint

March 11, 2026 - 2:45am

Dozens Of Oil Tankers Divert To Red Sea As Saudis Reroute Crude Flows From Hormuz Chokepoint

Despite continued disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, maritime traffic has not fully collapsed.

More ships transiting the Strait with transponders turned off https://t.co/PpEsenCVCE
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 10, 2026

On Tuesday afternoon, reports that a U.S. warship had escorted an oil tanker through the critical chokepoint helped push Brent crude futures down toward $81/bbl, reinforcing the view that paralysis on the waterway has, for now, begun to ease.

But even with signs that the critical maritime chokepoint is seeing a modest pickup in activity, this does not imply that normalcy will return this week. In fact, Bloomberg cites ship-tracking data showing uncertainty remains high, with at least 25 tankers diverted toward Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub at Yanbu.

Saudi Aramco is maxing out its east-west pipeline to Yanbu, which can carry 7 million barrels per day. CEO Amin Nasser said flows should reach capacity within days as tankers divert to the energy export hub in the Red Sea. The UAE is implementing a similar workaround in Fujairah, where exports have jumped to about 1.6 million bpd this month from a recent average of about 1.1 million bpd.

"We should reach capacity in a couple of days," Nasser said. "It's all building on the repositioning of tankers from the east to the west."

Bloomberg notes the conflict has already knocked about 6% off global oil output as traditional Hormuz transits remain disrupted.

Earlier, Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that the Hormuz chokepoint will "either be a strait of peace and prosperity for all" or a "strait of defeat and suffering for warmongers" as President Trump threatens retaliation against Tehran for disrupting the flow of oil.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 02:45

Dozens Of Oil Tankers Divert To Red Sea As Saudis Reroute Crude Flows From Hormuz Chokepoint

March 11, 2026 - 2:45am

Dozens Of Oil Tankers Divert To Red Sea As Saudis Reroute Crude Flows From Hormuz Chokepoint

Despite continued disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, maritime traffic has not fully collapsed.

More ships transiting the Strait with transponders turned off https://t.co/PpEsenCVCE
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 10, 2026

On Tuesday afternoon, reports that a U.S. warship had escorted an oil tanker through the critical chokepoint helped push Brent crude futures down toward $81/bbl, reinforcing the view that paralysis on the waterway has, for now, begun to ease.

But even with signs that the critical maritime chokepoint is seeing a modest pickup in activity, this does not imply that normalcy will return this week. In fact, Bloomberg cites ship-tracking data showing uncertainty remains high, with at least 25 tankers diverted toward Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub at Yanbu.

Saudi Aramco is maxing out its east-west pipeline to Yanbu, which can carry 7 million barrels per day. CEO Amin Nasser said flows should reach capacity within days as tankers divert to the energy export hub in the Red Sea. The UAE is implementing a similar workaround in Fujairah, where exports have jumped to about 1.6 million bpd this month from a recent average of about 1.1 million bpd.

"We should reach capacity in a couple of days," Nasser said. "It's all building on the repositioning of tankers from the east to the west."

Bloomberg notes the conflict has already knocked about 6% off global oil output as traditional Hormuz transits remain disrupted.

Earlier, Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that the Hormuz chokepoint will "either be a strait of peace and prosperity for all" or a "strait of defeat and suffering for warmongers" as President Trump threatens retaliation against Tehran for disrupting the flow of oil.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 02:45

European Taxpayers Warn Against Eurobonds: A Looming Fiscal Trap

March 11, 2026 - 2:00am

European Taxpayers Warn Against Eurobonds: A Looming Fiscal Trap

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In public debate, the introduction of joint European bonds, Eurobonds, has so far often been dismissed as a fantasy. That the European Taxpayers’ Association has now issued a clear warning against joint debt issuance should give critics of the Commission pause. Are the plans for standardized EU bond issuances possibly more advanced than we have realized?

The TAE is the umbrella organization of national European taxpayers’ associations, a private law foundation, independent, market-liberal, and a critical observer of the fiscal power plays of the Brussels central authority. When it speaks out decisively on fiscal issues, it does so for a reason.

The seemingly advanced plans of the EU Commission have apparently convinced the TAE to dedicate a campaign to the issue of European financing. Under the program title Stop EU Taxes. Stop EU Debt, it presents a fiscal policy agenda that would be welcome in party politics among economically liberal parties.

The TAE fundamentally warns against the European Commission’s lack of democratic mandate and sees the danger of Brussels’ powerful central body arrogating ever more tax powers to itself, thus, one could paraphrase, growing into a kind of state above the states. From this, the advocates of European taxpayers derive their demand: There must be no joint debt issuance within the EU.

No matter how the budgetary situation in the European member states develops: That the EU’s two main pillars, Germany and France, will record budget deficits of at least five percent this year is a national problem. And it must be resolved there, in the national capitals. It is unacceptable to distribute money to the public with one hand while taking it from European taxpayers with the other through higher taxes or future debt indirectly via inflation.

With these demands, the TAE firmly stands on the subsidiarity principle consistently advocated by its largest member organization, the German Taxpayers’ Association. Budgetary policy is a national matter. Excessive centralization of political power leads to inefficiencies, opacity, corruption, and systematic mismanagement by an increasingly powerful central apparatus that ultimately cannot even control the flow of its own funds.

The warning of the taxpayers’ association may, however, come too late. The European Commission operates under the motto: “Never let a crisis go to waste.” Following this spirit, the first true joint European bond was issued during the lockdown five years ago. Under the program name NextGenerationEU, the European Commission raised approximately €800 billion on the capital markets, backed by Germany as the main rating anchor, which with a national debt of 65 percent continues to stabilize European capital markets.

On an EU level, a whole arsenal of crisis financing instruments has been established. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) intervenes in acute crises, issuing bonds itself, and would be applied in a looming sovereign debt crisis just like the so-called SURE bonds set up to mitigate regional unemployment.

We are facing a slow, erosive process in which the EU is increasingly penetrating the capital markets, always with the guarantee of major economies and European taxpayers behind it. EU Green Bonds are a particularly vivid example: Here, the ideology of the green transformation merges with the practical implementation of joint debt issuance. Capital is directed into channels of a green crony economy that has already heavily damaged the overall economic structure.

And it came to pass as expected: The warning from taxpayer representatives was more than justified. Large parts of the borrowed debt were immediately funneled into the public budgets of Italy and Spain to mitigate precarious national fiscal conditions. Spain provides the clearest example: President Pedro Sánchez’s socialist government finances large portions of its state budget through these programs, enabling massive public sector employment growth. Much like in Germany, Spain’s labor market is shifting from the struggling private sector to the public sector, which acts as a final safety net for a gradually eroding middle class.

As if European statism were not already the costliest and economically most disastrous project of our time: productive forces are further stifled by this debt program, and the capital market is virtually drained by the public sector. Moreover, access to credit for small and medium-sized businesses becomes increasingly difficult when fewer funds are available.

This phenomenon can be observed across nearly all levels of European economic policy. What has unfolded under the program name Green Deal as a green transformation within a massive redistribution mechanism unfortunately establishes incentives that also attract productive private capital. Who would not prefer a government- or institution-guaranteed minimum return that exceeds market rates and is risk-free, as in the case of renewable energy investments?

The TAE does not state it explicitly, but if the EU Commission under Ursula von der Leyen continues to expand its fiscal powers, this path could accelerate Europe into economic third-class status.

Every major past crisis offered Brussels the opportunity to expand and consolidate its fiscal power. Whether the Dotcom bubble 25 years ago or the sovereign debt crisis fifteen years ago, which was quasi drowned by former ECB President Mario Draghi in fiat credit – all these events eventually culminated in the first European joint bond, the so-called NextGenerationEU.

It was the great original sin. A political bastard of the lockdown era. What else could this period have produced but further problems? We must assume, with Europeans’ response patterns in mind, that the looming EU sovereign debt crisis will inevitably feed into the Eurobond project.

It will spawn additional political bastards, such as the digital euro, designed as a capital flow control to prevent flight. A digital identity for monitoring public discourse is likely to be implemented. A minimum tax regime is also planned to finally eliminate tax competition in the EU. Welcome to Brussels, welcome to the hyperstate that will produce nothing but debt, behavioral control, and inflation.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 02:00