Zero Hedge

DC Police Officials Disciplined Over Allegations Of Manipulating Crime Data

DC Police Officials Disciplined Over Allegations Of Manipulating Crime Data

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Multiple high-ranking officials in the Washington, DC Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) are facing termination in connection with allegations about how they handled and possibly manipulated crime statistics in the district.

Breitbart reports that three MPD officials told The Washington Post that “multiple high-ranking” officials—all captains or above, all in leadership—were given “papers saying the department intends to fire them.”

According to a DC Police Union press release, the anticipated terminations are directly related to an investigation into allegations that the officials engaged in direct manipulation of crime data to minimize the level of crime in DC.

The union, which represents 3,000 MPD officers, welcomed the decision to terminate the officials, saying, “These actions, tied directly to the department’s completed Internal Affairs investigation into the deliberate manipulation of crime data, mark a long-overdue step toward justice and the restoration of integrity with MPD.”

The Washington Post reports, “The District has reported a decline in overall crime in recent years after a historic spike in 2023. But some in D.C. police circles have long complained that certain managers routinely reduced the severity of crime classifications to make their police districts appear safer or avoid criticism from top department brass.”

In some districts, armed home invasions were written down as “trespassing” instead, dropping a vioIent felony to a low-level misdemeanor, in order to manipulate the crime stats.

The 13 individuals who were served termination papers have not been fired yet as they are entitled to due process under the department’s general orders.

Interim MPD Chief Jeffrey Carroll said, “The administrative process must be allowed to take its course, and that process is outlined in our MPD general orders.”

Carroll added, “Let me be clear, we have made meaningful progress over the last three years in reducing crime. Homicides, shootings and carjackings have fallen steadily since 2023.”

NBC 4 reports that three of the high-level officials worked very closely with former Chief Pamela Smith, including her second-in-command and at least one assistant chief who oversaw patrol in half of DC.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 16:20

Inside The Moscow Meeting That Laid Bare Iran's Weak Hand

Inside The Moscow Meeting That Laid Bare Iran's Weak Hand

Authored by Simon Watkins via oilprice.com,

  • The Moscow meeting reinforced a long-standing imbalance, with Iran seeking deeper support while Russia offered only vague diplomatic backing.
  • The 20-year Iran–Russia deal structurally favors Moscow, especially in energy and trade terms, leaving Tehran with limited economic and strategic upside.
  • Russia’s growing military and economic strain reduces its ability to support Iran, exposing the fragility of the partnership.

Iran has a long history of being screwed over by Russia, and last week’s meeting in Moscow between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the U.S.–Israel–Iran war suggests nothing in that dynamic is about to change, according to extremely well-placed sources on both sides who spoke exclusively to OilPrice.com over the weekend. On the one hand, Tehran’s perennially baseless optimism that “this time will be different” was on full display in Araghchi’s excited praise for the marvels of the two countries’ so called ‘strategic relationship’. On the other hand, Moscow responded with all the warmth of an international telephone operator: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that Russia stands ready to offer “goodwill or mediation services”, with no indication of any upgrade to the relationship service package. It fits so neatly into the familiar pattern of this abusive relationship that one wonders whether social services should be called. Or perhaps Moscow’s disinterest is merely an act — a way of masking the deep and broad assistance from Tehran that it so clearly craves?

The theoretical basis of this relationship is the 20-year comprehensive cooperation deal between Iran and Russia -- formally titled The Treaty on the Basis of Mutual Relations and Principles of Cooperation between Iran and Russia -- approved by Iran’s late Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on 18 January 2024, as I exclusively reported in OilPrice.com at the time. It replaced the 10-year deal signed in March 2001 (extended twice by five years) and was expanded in duration, scope and scale, particularly in the defence and energy sectors. In several respects, the new deal complemented key elements of the all-encompassing Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement, first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article and analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The similarities were deliberate, designed to make the division of the key strategic assets most coveted by Moscow and Beijing easier to manage in practice. Related: China Orders Refiners to Ignore U.S. Sanctions on Key Iranian Oil Buyers

As with much of Russia’s foreign policy dealings, the devil was in the details. As a sign of how things would pan out for Tehran in the rest of the document, Russia stood to benefit at Iran’s expense in the key energy sector to begin with. The deal gave Russia the first right of extraction in the Iranian section of the Caspian Sea, including the potentially huge Chalous field. This came on top of Russia’s startlingly brazen theft in 2019 of at least US$3.2 trillion in revenues from Iran through the lost value of energy products across their shared Caspian assets going forward. The same right of first extraction for Russia was also applied in the new 20-year deal to several of Iran’s major oil and gas fields in the Khorramshahr and nearby Ilam provinces that border Iraq, which China had not already prioritised for its own needs. Several of these sites had the broader financial and geopolitical benefits attached to their being shared fields with Iraq. This status allowed the effective free movement of Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil, and extended Tehran’s influence over Baghdad through its political, economic, and military proxies. By extension, it did the same for Moscow and Beijing, which used this as a springboard to further project their influence across the Iran-dominated Shia Crescent of Power.

This powerbase in Iran and Iraq had also been central to Russia’s longstanding plan to build a ‘land bridge’ to the Mediterranean Sea coast of another of its key global assets at the time -- Syria. This would enable Moscow to exponentially increase weapons delivery into southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights area of Syria to be used in attacks on Israel. The core aim of this policy was to provoke a conflict in the Middle East that would draw in the U.S. and its allies into an unwinnable war, and was seen as a natural extension of the Israel-Hamas War that had begun after the terrorist organisation’s murderous spree across Israel on 7 October 2023. Given its centrality to Moscow’s plans, then, Iran was at that point still confident that the Kremlin would meet its other promises in the 20-year deal, despite the shenanigans surrounding the energy side of the treaty as it related to the Caspian’s oil and gas riches. “Iran had long been asking  Russia for the means to defend itself better against any attacks, especially those that might come from Israel or the U.S. -- in particular for the S-400 missile defence system and Sukhoi Su-34 and 35 fighter jets,” a very senior source working closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com. “But these requests have continually been subject to further conditionality by Russia, such as upgrading key airports and seaports that Moscow sees as especially useful for dual-use by its air force and navy, and which are also close to major oil and gas facilities.

The terms of the individual defence and energy deals were also made increasingly onerous for Iran by Russia as preconditions for the final delivery of Iran’s requests. According to this source -- and confirmed to OilPrice.com at the time by a very senior source working closely with the Russian government -- the price of all items traded between Russia and Iran, including military and energy hardware, had been formalised in the 20-year deal on terms that were not in Iran’s favour. For Iranian goods exported to Russia, Tehran would receive the cost of production plus 8 per cent. However, these export sales to Russia would not be transferred to Iran, but rather would be held as credit in the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). Moreover, Iran would receive a huge markdown on US dollar/Rouble or Euro/Rouble exchange rates used to calculate its credits in the CBR. Conversely, for Russian goods exported to Iran, Moscow would receive the payment in advance of delivery and at an exchange rate that benefited Russia. Moreover, the base price before any exchange rate calculations would be set at the highest price that Russia has received in the previous 180 days for whichever product it was selling to Iran. Moscow ensured itself the highest possible price by selling the relevant product to Belarus at a very large premium shortly beforehand, so establishing the required pricing benchmark. Payments for goods and services falling outside the direct finance route between the central banks of the two countries would be handled through interbank transfers between Iranian and Russian banks. Transactions involving renminbi would also be routed through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, Beijing’s alternative to the globally-dominant Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications system.

The additional problem for Iran now is that Russia is increasingly unable to provide even this limited assistance to it as its own troubles mount. Although U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on Russia’s ’10-Day Special Military Operation’ -- at the time of writing, in its 1,530th day -- has broadly favoured Putin and his ability to keep funding the conflict, things have turned very recently. The removal of pro-Putin Hungarian President Viktor Orbán in last month’s general election removed the obstacle that blocked €90 billion in European Union (E.U.) aid to Ukraine, with more to come as and when needed. This comes at a time when, according to military sources, Russia is only able to replace 70 per cent of the soldiers it is losing on the battlefield -- an unsustainable loss, which brings with it the deeply politically unsettling prospect of having to widen conscription out to the big cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Moreover, Ukraine is now relentlessly hitting key oil and gas infrastructure targets deep in Russia, reducing its ability to monetise these exports to fund its Ukraine campaign. Crude oil export data suggested the rise in prices, plus the easing of U.S. sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, boosted Russian revenues to 2.3 times their December-February levels in the third week of the Iran war. But by the fourth week, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy-producing infrastructure reduced Russia's earnings by US$1 billion, eradicating around two-thirds of the previous week’s gains. And destroying Russia’s energy infrastructure using Ukraine-manufactured long-range drones -- without any U.S. assistance and using E.U. funding -- is now a priority target.

As it stands, Iran has once again bet on a partner that takes far more than it ever gives. And as Russia’s own position deteriorates, even the illusion of reciprocity is evaporating. Tehran may soon discover that Moscow’s promises were always worth less than the paper they were written on. With Russia now struggling to sustain its own war effort, the chances of it honouring its commitments to Iran are shrinking by the day. And when the Kremlin finally admits it has nothing left to offer, Tehran will be left with no air defences, no aircraft, no navy, and no leverage — only the bill for a partnership that never paid out.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 15:40

World Starts To "Build" Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines

World Starts To "Build" Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines

Long after the Iran war is just a bookmark in the history books, one distinct consequence will persist: much of the world, at least the part that does not fall under the Chinese sphere of influence, will do everything it can to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and failing that, have a Plan B. Just like when the Biden admin weaponized the US Dollar in 2022 by booting Russia from SWIFT after the Ukraine war, and in the process started the biggest gold and bitcoin rally in history as the rest of the world parked its savings in non-USD assets, so the world's most important oil choke point will never again be viewed again in the same way after Iran launched dozens of rockets at the ships transiting it. 

This shift in perception is what James Thorne, chief market strategist of WellingtonAltus, called "Iran’s Historic Mistake"; he explains it as follows: 

By weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran committed a strategic blunder of historic proportions. Tehran meant to punish America. Instead, it exposed every power built on imported energy, vulnerable sea lanes, and the delusion that globalization repealed geography. China is exposed. Europe is exposed. Britain is exposed. Iran has created a world where hard resource power decides outcomes.

And the punchline:

Iran’s mistake is that once Hormuz becomes structurally unreliable, the world builds around it. That means bypass corridors, revived pipeline politics, and urgent planning for routes linking Aqaba to Mediterranean outlets near Gaza and the long-stalled Basra-to-Aqaba pipeline. The old energy order is cracking. The UAE’s OPEC exit signals cartel discipline giving way to national advantage under pressure.

The full note can be found here, and we didn't have long to wait to see the world it predicted begin to emerge. 

Earlier today, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan agreed to buy an additional 20 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates as Tokyo continues pursuing alternative supply channels amid the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan used 2.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, the economy ministry reports. Based on this average, the additional 20 million barrels from the UAE could cover eight to nine days' worth of demand, so much more is coming. 

The deal was finalized Tuesday after Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's minister of economy, trade and industry, met with the Emirati industry minister in Abu Dhabi. Akazawa told reporters after the meeting that he had requested increased oil supplies for Japan. 

Roughly 40% of Japan's crude oil imports comes from the UAE. The Middle Eastern country, which left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, intends to gradually increase oil production at its own discretion, which could lead to more cooperation with Japan.

Japan will pick up the Emirati oil at the port of Fujairah on the UAE's eastern coast, which lies on the Gulf of Oman, allowing for crude exports without going through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The war in the Middle East -- a region on which Japan has relied for more than 90% of its oil supply -- has spurred Tokyo to approach other oil producers. It reached a deal last month to procure 1 million barrels of crude from Mexico. 

Recently Japan's government said that around 60% of the oil Japan needs this month can be sourced through channels that do not involve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with releases from domestic stockpiles covering the remaining 40%.

Expect many more such deals from other Asian countries as passage through Hormuz will be one big question mark for years to come, absent a pro-Western regime taking control in Iran. 

Realizing the coming demand flood for its Fujairah-laden oil, and in anticipation of its post-OPEC renaissance, on May 3rd, UAE state energy company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Group, announced plans to award AED200bn (US$55bn) in upstream and downstream project contracts between 2026-28, at the 'Make it with ADNOC' forum in Abu Dhabi.

Omar Al Nuaimi, ADNOC’s Acting Group Chief, stated that ADNOC is moving into a new phase of accelerated, world-scale delivery to meet rising global energy demand. ''ADNOC is proud to continue reinforcing our role as a catalyst of the UAE’s industrial growth and an enabler of the Make it in the Emirates initiative,'' he told the Emirates News Agency (WAM) on the sidelines of ‘Make it With ADNOC’ Forum, held ahead of the Make it in the Emirates 2026.

''As part of this effort, we announced today at the ‘Make it with ADNOC’ Forum, our plan to award AED200 billion in projects over the next two years as part of our CAPEX approved by the Board in November,'' he said, explaining that the planned project awards span ADNOC’s upstream and downstream operations and usher in a new phase of project delivery that will supercharge UAE’s manufacturing capacity, strengthen industrial resilience, deepen the impact of the company’s In-Country Value program and advance the ‘Make it in the Emirates’ initiative.

In a note from Goldman (available here to pro subs), the bank writes that management characterized the announcement as marking the execution phase of its strategy, focused on scale, pace, and delivery to meet rising global energy demand while reinforcing the UAE's industrial base. The forum convened >400 participants, linking EPC contractors with qualified UAE-based manufacturers under the in-country value program. The award pipeline spans the entire upstream-to-downstream value chain, focusing on:

  • Capacity expansion: Scaling of crude oil and gas production capacity alongside deeper downstream integration
  • In-Country Value (ICV): Channelling spend through the Local+ program to prioritize UAE-manufactured inputs.
  • Supply chain resilience: Localizing critical equipment sourcing to mitigate global disruption and cost inflation risk.

According to Goldman, this announcement represents the first tranche of its previously announced $150BN capex program for 2030. The bank views the announcement as positive for key enablers such as ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC L&S, as they stand to be the primary beneficiaries of the upstream and downstream award pipeline. Furthermore, the signaled US$55bn commitment over 2026-28 serves as a strong signal of ADNOC Group's expansion roadmap. Goldman sees upside risk to consensus numbers for the key enabler subsidiaries given the potential for accelerated execution timelines and higher-than-guided growth targets as ADNOC ramps up capacity across the value chain. 

More in the Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 15:20

'We Need People To Come Back': Dubai's Tourism Industry Reels As Foreigners Flee

'We Need People To Come Back': Dubai's Tourism Industry Reels As Foreigners Flee

Via Middle East Eye

Dubai is facing an existential crisis with the US and Israeli war on Iran forcing tourism numbers to fall sharply, with widespread hotel closures and job losses decimating the global tourism hotspots' hospitality sector.

On Monday, Dubai Airports reported that first-quarter passenger traffic was down by at least 2.5 million from the same period in 2025, with March seeing a 66 percent drop in passenger numbers as travelers chose to steer clear of the Gulf. 

Empty beds are pictured before high-rise buildings along a beach at Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) in Dubai on March 11, 2026. via AFP

The company did not specify forecasts for this year but on Saturday, in a bid to kickstart tourism, the UAE announced that all air travel restrictions that were put in place after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that house or cooperate closely with US forces had been lifted. 

In a post on their official X account, the Civil Aviation Authority wrote: "Our decision came following a comprehensive assessment of operational and security conditions, in coordination with the relevant authorities". The statement was clearly meant to relay confidence to international travelers, especially after several European airlines announced that they would be suspending flights to the Middle East. 

Workers and business owners in Dubai, who spoke to the Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity due GCC-wide restrictions on public statements about the effects of Tehran’s attacks, say it will still take some time to see if the announcement will restore confidence among travelers and investors.

Charity, a Kenyan hotel worker said the mid-priced hotel she works at was definitely affected by the 1.4 million people who travelled through the UAE over the first two weeks of March. During the Muslim month of Ramadan, when Iranian missile and drone attacks were at their worst, the hotel, part of a US-based chain, was full of stranded passengers who would meet with Emirates Airlines representatives in the lobby. 

During the month, the hotel's pool was closed to guests and by the final days, guests staying in the higher floors of the 20-floor building were moved to the lower floors as a precautionary measure. After that, though, she said "things really slowed down for a few weeks".

She said she hoped the announcement would provide some assurance to travelers. "We'll see over the next week if people really start to come back," she said while helping a long-time American traveler. "We need your people [foreign tourists] to come back," she added.

So far, even longtime passengers say there has been a noticeable shift in the mood at Dubai International, which has been the world’s busiest airport for international passenger traffic for 12 consecutive years.

Samina, a South Asian NGO worker who travels between South Asia, the Gulf and North America, said the change was particularly noticeable in her most recent trips over the two months.

"Coming in, it's empty," she said of Terminal 3, home of Emirates Airlines. "Terminal 1 and 2 are ghost towns," she said of the buildings that are home to other international carriers and FlyDubai, the UAE's budget airline.

She said international airlines suspending flights to the region have definitely taken a toll on traffic, "Every time you get in, it's all the same transit passengers."

According to Dubai Airports, only 51 out of 90 airlines have resumed their operations at the airport, with European and US airlines facing difficulties securing insurance cover due to government travel advisories

'Ethos of Dubai was shaken'

For its part, Dubai is working hard to support and reassure its residents. Travelling around the city, there is an abundance of UAE flags outside homes and businesses and on digital signs and billboards along the highways.

At the City Walk shopping center there are massive electronic signs thanking UAE residents in Arabic and English. Pictures of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan are emblazoned along major roads with the statement: May our nation remain in God’s protection". Other signs show Emirati families saluting the flag with the same words.

However, longtime residents and business owners say the impact of the intercepted missiles and drones was felt almost immediate.

Tatiana, a Russian national who runs a logistics company for businesses looking to setup shop in the Gulf, and she said even she was shocked at how quickly the mood shifted for existing and prospective businesses. "Within the first two weeks people [said] it's no longer worth [living here]. They weren't scared per se, they just felt like it's no longer worth it". 

"Businesses were suddenly liquidating their assets." She said her family was now looking at options in Europe to gradually shift to.

Antoine, an editor who helps train amateur writers said one of his clients who works at an advertising agency was left with the burden of those liquidations. "She was in charge of finding 1,000 workers in the UAE to let go of," he said. Antoine was particularly struck by the fact that even an advertising firm would be so immediately impacted.

"You'd think advertising would be a war-proof industry," he said. Tatiana said her work has been particularly affected by the attacks.  "Our whole business is predicated on assuring people that the UAE is a safe, convenient place to do business," she said.

Her statement is almost identical to what Arjun, one of the 3.5 to 4.3 million Indian residents of the UAE, said outside a late evening screening of the Michael Jackson biopic. Arjun said he was happy to see the screening at near capacity, hoping it was a sign of a gradual return to normal. "The entire ethos of Dubai as this place free from conflict was shaken," he said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 15:00

'Still So Early On This Journey': Morgan Stanley Launches Lower-Cost Crypto Trading

'Still So Early On This Journey': Morgan Stanley Launches Lower-Cost Crypto Trading

Just a week after Amy Oldenburg, Morgan Stanley’s head of digital assets, spent the better part of an hour making a case for bitcoin that few clients have heard in full (a gap she says is the industry’s most urgent problem), the bank announces the launch of crypto trading on E*Trade, charging 50bps in a pilot that undercuts rivals like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Charles Schwab.

CoinDesk reports that Morgan Stanley’s Head of Wealth Management, Jed Finn, said the initiative goes beyond offering cheaper crypto trading and is aimed at “disintermediating the disintermediators,” framing it as a broader structural shift in how clients access digital assets.

The investment banking giant plans to roll the service out to all 8.6 million ETrade customers later this year.

The latest offering builds on a series of crypto-related moves in recent months, including the launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, with planned products tied to ether and solana.

Morgan Stanley has also advanced efforts on the infrastructure side, applying for a national trust bank charter that would enable it to directly custody digital assets.

Sources told Bloomberg that the bank is also mulling services that enable conversation of crypto holdings into exchange-traded products without selling and is preparing for potential tokenized equity trading later this year.

These moves are set to amplify competition in a market where Coinbase generated $3.32 billion in consumer transaction revenue in 2025, while Robinhood reported nearly $1 billion in crypto-related revenue.

But, as Bitcoin Magazine reports, the education problem runs deep, according to Oldenburg.

Oldenburg: Bitcoin has an education problem 

Many investors still associate bitcoin with its early history of use by bad actors, and struggle to see past that frame when weighing an allocation. 

Oldenburg said that when clients ask about yield or structured exposure, her team tries to be direct: “you can present it as a yield, but the underlying asset is bitcoin.” That clarity, she said, is still missing from most conversations in the market, and there is “so much more work to do.”

MSBT pulled in more than $100 million in its first week of trading, a strong early signal for a product the bank describes as designed for the full spectrum of its client base rather than a narrow segment. 

But Oldenburg was quick to put that number in context. All of the initial flows came through self-directed accounts, because the fund had not yet been made available on the advisory platform.

She noted that the bank has announced a 2–4% crypto allocation recommendation, and that even with that guidance in place, take-up through advisors has been slow.

The product, she reminded the audience, has been on the market for less than a year.

To bridge that gap, Morgan Stanley is working from the inside out. Oldenburg said the firm is rolling out internal training so that financial advisors can speak to clients on bitcoin with confidence, and that her team spends “hour after hour after hour” on the phone walking clients through models and allocation frameworks. 

She said the bank designs products for clients with different needs and wants its platform to cover each of those needs, including clients who want a direct ETP wrapper, and that spot crypto trading is coming for those on the wealth management side.

On custodians, Oldenburg acknowledged the complexity of the decision. The market has no shortage of providers, and choosing among them was not straightforward, which led the firm to work with more than one. Morgan Stanley ultimately tapped Coinbase and BNY Mellon as custodians for MSBT.

When the conversation turned to high-beta bitcoin plays, Oldenburg called Strategy, the Michael Saylor-led company formerly known as MicroStrategy, “a good friend of Morgan Stanley,” and said the bank has worked alongside it through its evolution. 

She said most of the exposure in that vehicle so far is coming from retail and that “digital credit” as a category will take time to develop.

Morgan Stanley buying bitcoin is “not out of the question”

On the question of banks holding bitcoin on their balance sheets, Oldenburg said it is “not out of the question” if regulatory progress continues, but was measured in framing it. 

The U.S. needs greater alignment among its financial regulators, she said, and for a global firm like Morgan Stanley, the picture is more complex still — each jurisdiction comes with its own framework.

She closed where she began: on the need for research with reach. The market has commentators and personalities that investors trust and follow, she said, and the work ahead is to bring that kind of accessible, grounded analysis into the mainstream. 

“We are still so early on this journey,” she said. “So little allocation. It’s still really early.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 14:40

'Don't Even Think About Selling': Mr. Gold Warns US 'Officially A Banana Republic'

'Don't Even Think About Selling': Mr. Gold Warns US 'Officially A Banana Republic'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Last time financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) was on USAW, he said don’t even think about selling any gold or silver.  One of the big reasons why he is still saying this is the news last week that the US debt to GDP ratio is now at 100%. 

Mr. Gold says, “I have talked for years about how the entire world runs on credit.  What we started this off with is the United States is officially a banana republic.  It’s 100% debt to GDP..."

"When I was in school in the early 1980s, the definition of a banana republic is when it hit 100% debt to GDP. 

In this instance, it is the issuer of the world’s reserve currency that is admitting it is officially a banana republic.  

Everything runs on credit.  The biggest issuer of credit is the United States, and if their credit card gets declined, then what does that do to the real economy? 

Nothing will work.  There will be nothing on shelves.  Stores will be dark. 

Should you store food? 

The answer is yes because something really bad is right in front of us.  It’s a credit collapse.”

So, the Trump Administration is not going to just let everything collapse. 

What is the contingency plan? 

Mr. Gold says, “I think the contingency plan is oil..."

"They went after Maduro.  So, they have taken control of the Venezuelan oil supply.  They want to do the same thing elsewhere. 

I mean President Trump said in his own words, he said basically we are pirates, and we are going to take Iran’s oil. 

I think that’s the plan. 

It is to control more oil and keep the petrodollar system alive.  Is it going to work?  I think, ultimately, it will not work because the numbers are far too upside down at this point.  If you really look under the hood, the Federal Reserve itself is insolvent.  And we have not even talked about derivatives. 

Derivatives are the gorilla in the room.  In the derivative market, you are looking at $2 quadrillion in derivatives.  Once you get things off sides, and an example of that is look at the British yields, they are back to pushing 7%.  They are back to rates that are the same as in 1998.  So, all of the easing is gone. 

Everything runs on credit, and once you gum up credit, you start affecting the real economy.  Then, there is less cash flow in the real economy, and that spills over into the financial economy and financial markets.  Derivatives are the biggest danger.  Warren Buffett calls them mass financial destruction. 

It should not go unnoticed that Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on $400 billion of cash, which is the biggest hoard they have ever had.  In 1998, the financial media called him an idiot, and what happened in 2000?  Buffett was an idiot again in early 2008.  What happened in late 2008 and 2009? 

Buffett is not an idiot, and for him to say now that there is nothing out there of value to buy and I’d rather have cash, that tells you a pretty big story.”

On silver, Holter says, “I think we are reloading for a much larger event than we saw in November to January."

"That 90 days was spectacular, but I think this next move is going to dwarf that.”  Holter says many big analysts are predicting silver much, much higher by the end of the year.

There is much more in the 42-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold as the “credit collapse” in the financial system begins for 5.5.26.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 14:20

Blue Energy & GE Vernova Bet On Gas Bridge-To-Nuclear For AI Power

Blue Energy & GE Vernova Bet On Gas Bridge-To-Nuclear For AI Power

Blue Energy announced a collaboration with GE Vernova to develop the world's first gas-plus-nuclear power plant in Texas.

The project will use two GE Vernova gas turbines to deliver roughly 1 GW starting around 2030. Steam supply will later shift to GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactors for up to 1.5 GW of nuclear capacity by 2032. 

Work at the Texas site could begin as early as this year, with a final investment decision expected in 2027.

The plan is similar to other announcements from companies like Oklo and Liberty Energy that plan to deploy gas power turbines at proposed energy sites to initiate power delivery and revenue collection while the longer leg of building the reactor continues in the background. 

Easier said than done, though. The NRC would normally never be involved in a gas energy project, but if it will share facilities with a future nuclear project, then things get a little more interesting. This is why Blue Energy submitted a plan, and recently received approval, for how to involve the NRC with the construction of a gas-to-nuclear site. 

This new sequencing of gas-to-nuclear allows for power delivery to the data center or grid to begin in under four years, compared to as many as ten years if it was a purely nuclear project. 

Depending on the location, it may be too little too late. Especially on the east coast

This is where people usually start pointing fingers at the data center for creating the problem. Blaming hyperscalers though requires looking away from the fact that new power generation is also being delayed to connect to the grid

Constellation's restart of the Three Mile Island Reactor is currently facing a four-year delay from PJM. The reactor will be ready to provide clean energy to the grid in 2027, but has been told to wait until 2031 to actually connect. 

Extreme demand from data centers is not the source of the problem. Decades of neglect with grid upgrades are the real reasons for the grid's inability to bolt on new supply and demand, and is now driving costs through the roof. 
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 14:05

Ken Griffin "Doubles Down On Miami" After Mamdani's "Creepy And Weird" Video Vilifying Him

Ken Griffin "Doubles Down On Miami" After Mamdani's "Creepy And Weird" Video Vilifying Him

Ken Griffin said New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s push for higher taxes on second homes has reinforced Citadel’s commitment to Miami — and even led the firm to scale up its planned headquarters there, according to Bloomberg.

Speaking Tuesday at the Milken Institute Global Conference, Griffin said Citadel decided to enlarge its Miami office project after Mamdani publicly referenced his $238 million Central Park South penthouse while promoting a new pied-à-terre tax proposal.

“We went to Miami and revised our building plan to make it a bigger office building,” Griffin said. “What the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners, is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami.”

Bloomberg writes that Griffin said he watched Mamdani’s video three times and described it as “creepy and weird.”

He added that the situation brought back memories of his departure from Chicago, where he previously criticized local leadership before moving Citadel and Citadel Securities to Florida.

“Looking at what Mamdani did to me and more broadly is doing to the city of New York is triggering the trauma I went through in Chicago,” Griffin said.

A spokesperson for Mamdani defended the mayor’s stance, saying he supports entrepreneurs but believes New York’s tax structure needs reform so wealthy residents contribute more.

Citadel still has nearly 2,500 employees in New York City and is involved in a separate $6 billion office tower project at 350 Park Avenue. But Griffin suggested Miami has clearly won out.

“What do we do at 350 is still a point of discussion internally, but what is no longer a point of discussion is when we moved from Chicago, there was a debate between New York and Miami,” Griffin said. “It’s unquestionably true that we made the right choice.”

He also took aim at states he views as unfriendly to businesses.

“We want to be in a state that embraces business, that embraces education, that embraces personal freedom and liberty and that embraces people having an opportunity to live the American dream,” Griffin said. “Not a dream of redistributive handouts that leave people dependent on government for their lives and their livelihoods.”

We wrote two weeks ago: "New York City is a global icon and the uncomfortable truth is this: the people Mamdani is turning into political props are the same ones writing the checks. And they have options."

And now it looks as though Ken Griffin is exercising those options...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 13:25

China Wants Iran War End, Pushes 'Immediate' Hormuz Reopening During Araghchi Visit Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

China Wants Iran War End, Pushes 'Immediate' Hormuz Reopening During Araghchi Visit Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is currently in Beijing meeting with his Chinese counterpart, FM Wang Yi, and the timing of the visit sends a resounding message to Washington and the West. The highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting is still scheduled for next week, expected for May 14-15, though there has been ample speculation the ongoing events of the unpredictable Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis could derail the trip at the last minute.

Of course, Iran and the question of peace will be high on the agenda as Trump visits - and currently it seems the White House is desperate to set in place some kind of final offramp, given the Tuesday night 'pause' in Project Freedom operations in the Gulf.

Upon the occasion of Araghchi's visit, Foreign Minister Wang has taken the opportunity to again call for the immediate opening of the strait. And the Iranian top diplomat seconded this at a moment the US Navy has imposed an effective blockade of Iranian ports, which of course severely impacts Iranian oil going to China. "Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible," Xinhua quoted Araghchi as saying.

Source: Iranian Foreign Ministry

Wang during the meeting also called for a "comprehensive ceasefire," saying his country is deeply distressed by the war. Xinhua further quoted him as saying:

"The international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait, and China hopes the relevant parties will respond as quickly as possible to the strong calls from the international community."

The two sides are clearly coordinating their messaging to some degree, given Wang also expressed that China "appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons."

Tehran has for years insisted its program is only for peaceful nuclear energy development and for domestic needs, but has amid Trump's Operation Epic Fury made clear it will never given up its right to enriched uranium. It has said this is as "sacred as the soil" and sees it as a matter of national sovereignty. This in the face of US demands that it transfer all nuclear material out of the country.

More out of Beijing on Wednesday:

“We believe that a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay, a resumption of hostilities is inadvisable, and persisting with negotiations is particularly important,” Wang told Araghchi at the start of their meeting, according to footage released by Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV.

...Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to press Iran to ease its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes.

As for what China gains in this high-level diplomacy and engagement with Tehran at a moment it could face more US and Israeli bombs, Associated Press presents the following:

Some noted that the Iranian foreign minister visited at Beijing’s initiative. "It’s China exercising their leverage... to summon the Iranian foreign minister," said Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University.

"By holding the talks with the Iranians, you can't fault for them not putting in any effort," Hoo said.

As for some further specifics to come out of the Araghchi-Wang meeting, Iran "expressed appreciation for China’s four-point proposal" - according to a readout in semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA).

"Iran supports the formation of a new framework for the post-war period in the region" the readout adds. As for the 'four points' - these were issued by Beijing earlier in the conflict and are quite broad. These official points are featured below in their entirety, via Chinese state sources:

  • Stay committed to the principle of peaceful coexistence. The Gulf states in the Middle East are close neighbours that cannot move away. It’s important to support the Gulf states in improving their ties, work to build a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture of the Middle East and the Gulf region, and consolidate the foundation for peaceful coexistence.
  • Stay committed to the principle of national sovereignty. Sovereignty serves as a foundation for all countries, especially developing countries, to survive and thrive, and it must not be violated.
  • Stay committed to the principle of international rule of law. We should safeguard the authority of international rule of law, reject selective application, and prevent the world from returning to the law of the jungle. It is important to firmly uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core, the international order based on international law, and the basic norms governing international relations underpinned by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
  • Stay committed to a balanced approach to development and security. Security is a prerequisite for development and development serves as a safeguard of security.

If negotiations between the US and Iran don't proceed, and if they stay at 'square one', this could weaken any big leverage President Trump hopes to have entering his meeting with Xi Jinping. This is perhaps why American officials are scrambling to cobble something together, to at least cite progress toward resolving the Hormuz situation. Still Trump has insisted he has "all the cards" when it comes to Iran.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 11:20

ABC Reporter Fabricated Trump Call, Made Himself The Focus After Assassination Attempt

ABC Reporter Fabricated Trump Call, Made Himself The Focus After Assassination Attempt

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

President Trump has slammed ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl for what he calls outright dishonest reporting after Karl inserted himself into the story of the latest assassination attempt on the president.

Karl appeared on ABC’s This Week shortly afterward and claimed Trump had reached out to him personally. “My phone rang shortly after 7 a.m., my landline, George actually. A number that few people call and it was President Trump calling,” Karl told host George Stephanopoulos.

Karl further claimed that Trump “said at first he was calling to see if I was okay with what happened last night. ‘Are you OK?’ And then he reiterated many of the things he said in his press conference last night emphasizing the unity that he felt in that moment that he felt at the dinner before the shooting and certainly after with people who reached out to him… And he was quite firm about this: That dinner must be rescheduled.”

This week, Trump responded directly on Truth Social, blasting the claim as pure fabrication designed to center Karl rather than the president who had just survived another attempt on his life.

“Jonathan Karl, of ABC Fake News, made a statement that I called him early in the morning, the day after the assassination attempt, to ask whether or not HE was OK. No, this was a hit on ME, not HIM, and I didn’t make such a call, why would I do that?” Trump remarked.

The president added, “He called me, but I didn’t take his call — He just confirmed that to me when he called again. I would say that’s very dishonest reporting. He’s trying to make himself look important but, I’m not surprised, because it comes from ABC Fake News!”

This appears to be somewhat deranged behavior from a legacy media figure desperate to remain relevant. Instead of focusing on the security failures, the gunman’s motives, or the president’s resolve, Karl turned the story into a narcissistic fantasy about himself – the brave reporter Trump supposedly felt compelled to check on at 7 a.m. the morning after an attack aimed squarely at the commander-in-chief.

This latest episode fits a long pattern of tension between Trump and ABC News. Readers will recall our earlier coverage of Trump calling out Karl and other ABC figures for biased and obnoxious questioning.

Trump also torched an obnoxious ABC fake news reporter over misleading boat strike video: 

And of course, ABC was forced to pay out a massive $15 million settlement last year after falsely calling Trump a rapist: 

The derangement doesn’t stop with the press. In a related development that perfectly captures the upside-down priorities in Washington, a D.C. judge has now apologized to the alleged assassin himself over his treatment in custody.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui expressed “grave concerns” about conditions at the D.C. jail, including solitary confinement and suicide watch protocols for Cole Allen, telling the suspect directly he was “very troubled” by the reported treatment. 

While security for Trump and the public remains under scrutiny after multiple attempts on the president’s life, the system bends over backward to ensure the accused gunman feels comfortable.

This is the same media and institutional class that spent years demonizing Trump, only to now feign shock when violence follows their rhetoric. 

The fake news machine keeps exposing itself, and each time it does, trust in legacy outlets like ABC erodes further.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:50

WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain

WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain

Oil prices are lower overnight (but dramatically off their lows) amid on-again, off-again optimism of an imminent US-Iran peace deal.

Benchmark Brent fell as much as 12% to $96.75 a barrel in London, while West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 13%. European natural gas plunged as much as 14%.

Oil and gas later pared about half of those losses after Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday that if Iran doesn’t agree, “the bombing starts.”

Overnight we saw huge across the board drawdowns in US energy inventories reported by API (and a huge SPR drain). All eyes on the official data this morning...

API

  • Crude -8.1mm (-2.8mm exp)

  • Cushing -1mm

  • Gasoline -6.1mm

  • Distillates -4.6mm

DOE

  • Crude -2.313mm (-2.8mm exp)

  • Cushing -648k

  • Gasoline -2.504mm

  • Distillates -1.294mm

For the second week in a row, US inventories saw significant declines across the board with products seeing the biggest draws. Crude's drawdown was a modest disappointment (especially after API's big report)...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, crude stockpiles remain elevated (but are drawing down)...

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most notably, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is seeing massive drawdowns to support the global loss of supply from Hormuz.

Source: Bloomberg

On the back of that draw, Bloomberg's energy guru, Javier Blas, dropped this stunning chart showing that, on a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have recovered to their pre-war level due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. Of course, that's helped by massive stock drawdowns / SPR drain, but still...

Additionally, last week saw US crude exports actually decline (after nearing the unprecedented level of 100 million barrels in 7 days). The decline in crude cargoes headed overseas pulled down overall US oil and fuels exports from record high levels also set the week earlier, even as fuel exports rose to the highest weekly level ever.

Source: Bloomberg

The US has sent out at least 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day since the week of April 3.

US crude production continued to trend lower...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI fell dramatically below $100 overnight but amid Trump's 'bombastic' comments and Iranian denials, pries are well off their lows

“The oil price is reacting on shift in sentiment instead of market balances, driven by news of a potential deal between the US and Iran,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.

“It remains unclear when flow through the strait would resume.”

Still, any breakthrough in peace talks will take much longer to filter through to energy markets.

“When the Strait opens we do believe it will take half a year for oil to get back to normal,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said on the company’s quarterly earnings conference call.

“For gas, it will take much longer.”

And that's important for the Midterms...

The 4-week moving average for US gasoline implied demand ticked higher week-on-week, but the more volatile weekly data showed a weekly decline and dipped below the 5-year average.

It is too early to tell, but elevated gasoline prices could be finally eating into demand.

Trump has repeatedly claimed prices will come down rapidly once the Strait is reopened - we shall see.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:40

UBS Says Transport Stock Rout Is "Overdone" After Amazon News

UBS Says Transport Stock Rout Is "Overdone" After Amazon News

UBS senior analyst Tom Wadewitz, who covers freight transportation, told clients that Amazon's latest push to open its supply chain network to businesses beyond its own marketplace triggered an "overdone" sell-off in transport names, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.

Wadewitz said the risk is not new, noting that Amazon's supply chain service has been around since 2023. He said the pullback has created attractive entry points in select transport stocks, particularly UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.

"While we view AMZN's strategy of selling transportation services as a negative for transports generally, it is not a new risk and the supply chain service is also not new. We believe the significant sell-off in transport names was overdone," Wadewitz said.

The main risk is in B2B parcel, Wadewitz said, adding that Amazon's growing third-party shipping ambitions could pressure UPS and FedEx over the medium term.

However, he said the threat is not a surprise, since Amazon has been active in parcel delivery for years. He also noted that there is limited near-term risk in international express because Amazon's air fleet is mostly domestic narrow-body aircraft.

The immediate market reaction in transport stocks, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson, to Amazon's news was a roughly 10% drop at the start of the week. Some of those losses had been recovered by mid-week.

Wadewitz explained to clients why the "pullback creates attractive entry points for UPS, FDX, and CHRW" ...

We believe the cost reduction and network efficiency initiatives of UPS and FDX support margin improvement and EPS growth on a multi-year basis. While AMZN's focus on growing in transport markets is a risk, we also don't view it as a new risk.

In our view, investors already assume that the addressable domestic parcel market for UPS and FDX is a slow growth market (eg in part due to impact of AMZN).

We view the ~10% pullbacks in UPS and FDX as providing attractive entry points.

With respect to CHRW, we do not expect AMZN's supply chain initiative to have a noticeable impact on the brokerage market which is already a highly competitive market. We expect the combination of an upcycle in truckload pricing and acceleration in labor productivity for CHRW in 2H26 to support attractive EPS growth and support upside for the stock. We would also recommend buying CHRW on the pullback in the stock.

Professional subscribers can read the full transport note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:30

Israel Says Preparing For Escalation With Iran, Didn't Know Deal Was Close: 'Series Of Targets Ready'

Israel Says Preparing For Escalation With Iran, Didn't Know Deal Was Close: 'Series Of Targets Ready'

Wednesday saw yet another early morning Axios 'scoop' that within hours of being issued proved premature and too out front, given talk of Iran and the US being 'close' to a deal was quickly denied by Tehran and even President Trump quickly acknowledged it's "too soon" to plan peace talks with Iran.

But the headline of "US and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war" was enough to raise alarm bells in Israel, which has insisted that the conflict must end with a nuclear-free Iran.

Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, via IDF/TOI

"Israel was unaware that US President Donald Trump was close to reaching an agreement with Iran to end the fighting and open the Strait of Hormuz," an Israeli official told Army Radio soon after the optimistic peace deal headlines went international.

"We were preparing for an escalation," the official said. Indeed the last couple weeks of stalled Pakistan-mediated talks have seen several reports out of Israel saying the Netanyahu government is waiting for the 'green light' from Washington to renew the aerial bombing campaign, which took place over prior 38 days as part of Operation Epic Fury.

But as of Tuesday Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Epic Fury was ending, and that Project Freedom - to open the Strait of Hormuz - is the new focus. But even after that President Trump in the evening announced a 'pause' to allow negotiations to proceed.

So there has been much confusion and contradictory signaling out of Washington to say the least. Tehran has meanwhile made clear its "finger is on the trigger" - but Israel is also saying the same thing.

For example, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir on Wednesday made it known that military has a "series of targets" ready to strike in Iran at the moment the war resumes.

"Cooperation with the United States military and coordination continue at all times, and we are monitoring the situation," he stated during a visit to southern Lebanon, where Israel ground forces are occupying territory.

"In Iran, we have a further series of targets ready for attack. We are on high alert to return to an intense and broad campaign that will allow us to deepen our achievements and further weaken the Iranian regime," Zamir said further.

As for anti-Hezbollah operations, and despite the Lebanon ceasefire officially in effect, the top military general said: "We will seize every opportunity to deepen the blow to Hezbollah and its continued weakening."

None of this bodes well for a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon, also as the broader Iran ceasefire is certainly on shaky ground, given this week's cross-Gulf attacks on UAE out of the Islamic Republic.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:15

U.S. Gasoline Tops $4.50 As "Shock & Awe" Level Approaches

U.S. Gasoline Tops $4.50 As "Shock & Awe" Level Approaches

WTI futures plunged more than 11% to the $90-a-barrel level after Axios reported earlier this morning that the U.S. is nearing a preliminary agreement with Iran to end the war. The sharp decline suggests traders are beginning to price in a potential geopolitical de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint.

At the pump, however, the latest AAA data as of Wednesday morning show that the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline has climbed to $4.50 a gallon, the highest level since July 2022.

There will be a lag. Even if the Trump administration and Tehran formalize a deal in the near term, the immediate result will not be a collapse in gas and diesel pump prices, but rather an approaching peak.

Lower crude prices typically take a few weeks to work through wholesale markets, inventories, distribution networks, and retail outlets before meaningful declines in gas and diesel are visible at pump stations to consumers.

During a Monday press conference, Trump said he expects the price of gasoline to drop "substantially" following the end of the US-Iran war.

"I see it going down very substantially when this is over, I think very rapidly too, at levels that you've never seen because there's a lot of energy out there, ships all over the world that are loaded up with it," Trump said.

"They can't do much with it because they got kidnapped by a pretty evil place. But we're taking care of it."

Last week, Trump said pump prices would "come crashing down as soon as this war is over."

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that the $5-a-gallon threshold is typically the "shock and awe" level that triggers demand destruction.

With the national average for gas already near $4.50 a gallon, and California prices above $6, the political and consumer pressure backdrop for the Trump administration has intensified in recent weeks.

The administration now appears to be pushing hard for a near-term Iran resolution ahead of Memorial Day weekend, one of the largest U.S. driving periods of the year after Thanksgiving.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:40

Treasury Refunding: No Changes To Auction Sizes; Bessent Keeps "At Least" In Forward Guidance

Treasury Refunding: No Changes To Auction Sizes; Bessent Keeps "At Least" In Forward Guidance

In our preview to this morning's Quarterly Refunding Statement, we said that we do not expect major changes and that, at most, the treasury might adjust its statement language to soften the forward guidance on possibly futures increase in coupon auction sizes with one likely change would be dropping “at least” while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over “the next several quarters” (recall Deutsche Bank said it expects nominal coupon increases beginning in February 2027). 

Overnight, JPMorgan agreed, writing that while the current auction calendar will leave Treasury well financed through FY27, "we do not think it will be adequate to meet the widening funding gap from FY27 and onward, and we continue to project a series of coupon auction increases beginning in February 2027." Accordingly, like DB, JPM also expected the Treasury to remove “at least” from the statement that “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." The bank said that If its expectations are realized, "we think this could push intermediate yields higher."

Well, moments ago the Treasury published its latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and contrary to prevailing expectations, it refused to make even a gentle hint at rising coupon sizes by keeping the "at least" language from the abovementioned statement, instead keeping it as is, or rather as was: 

Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters

In other words, the US Treasury signaled again that it’s still comfortable using Yellen's Activist Treasury Issuance playbook to issue Bills, and not increase coupon issuance, to meet escalating government borrowing needs, even as warnings emerge about the strategy’s risks.

Ahead of the QRA, dealers were divided heading into the so-called quarterly refunding release on whether it might alter its guidance. Outsize US fiscal deficits make an expansion in longer-dated auctions practically inevitable at some stage. The department on Monday boosted its estimate for net borrowing this quarter amid lower net cash flows.

US debt managers have been using the same forward guidance since early 2024, in a policy that’s steadily boosted the share of bills of total debt outstanding (to roughly 22% from 14% before covid). The International Monetary Fund cautioned last month that this leaves federal debt costs more vulnerable to sudden swings in rates and shifts in sentiment, because auctions are more frequent.

And sure enough, with no changes to the forward guidance:

  • *TREASURY YIELDS EDGE LOWER AFTER UNCHANGED GUIDANCE ON AUCTIONS

The rest of the statement was also in line with expectations, with the Treasury stating "it believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and to the size and composition of the SOMA portfolio." It added that it was monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector.  And, as before, looking ahead the treasury continues to evaluate potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles. 

Looking at the actual refunding auctions next, the Treasury’s refunding debt sales will total $125 billion, unchanged from the sum unveiled in February and in line with the expectations of Wall Street bond dealers.

Treasury also maintained guidance on coupon sizes for the coming quarters. Refunding issuance to raise new cash of approximately $41.7BN (offering $125BN to refund $83.3BN).

  • Treasury to sell $58bn of 3-year notes on May 11
  • Treasury to sell $42bn of 10-year notes on May 12
  • Treasury to sell $25bn of 30-year bonds on May 13

The table below presents the actual auction sizes for the February to April 2026 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the May to July 2026 quarter: 

The total compares to a peak of $126BN first reached in Feb. 2021; auction sizes across the curve began rising in 2018 to finance tax cuts and surged in 2020 to finance the federal pandemic response, and to give the Fed's QE X securities to buy.

Here are some other highlights from the Refunding report: 

Bills

  • Treasury expects to further increase offering sizes of shorter-dated benchmark bills over the coming weeks and, in late-May, anticipates issuing a short-dated CMB to meet the peak liquidity needs at the end of May due to maturing coupon securities.
  • Given projections for receipts associated with the mid-month corporate and non-withheld tax date, Treasury expects to implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during the month of June. 
  • Thereafter, in July, Treasury anticipates incrementally increasing bill auction sizes across the curve.  As always, Treasury will continue to evaluate near-term borrowing needs and assess additional adjustments to bill auction sizes as appropriate

TIPS

  • Treasury plans to maintain the 10-year TIPS reopening this May at $19 billion; the five-year TIPS reopening in June at $24 billion; and the 10-year TIPS new issue at $21 billion in July

20-year

  • Treasury is modifying settlement timing for 20-year bond reopening auctions.
  • From the reopening auction scheduled for June 16th, 20-year reopening auctions will settle on the Friday of the auction week, while new issues will continue to settle at month end.

Buybacks (lowers cash management buybacks in 1mth-2-year, maintains liquidity support buybacks)

  • Expects to purchase up to USD 38bln in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support (unchanged) and up to USD 25bln in the 1-month to 2-year maturity bucket for cash management purposes (prev. USD 75bln in Q1).

Cash Balance

  • Treasury is assuming a $900 billion cash balance at the end of June.
  • Treasury estimates that the size of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could peak at $1 trillion (plus or minus $50 billion) in late July.  This figure is consistent with Treasury’s long-standing cash balance policy and is driven by the large outflows expected to occur at that time. 

TBAC Minutes

  • Director Pietrangeli says while current issuance sizes are adequate to cover expected borrowing needs for the remainder of FY2026 (prev. Treasury is slightly overfunded in FY2026)
  • The median primary dealer forecast for privately-held net marketable borrowing implies a USD 1.3tln funding shortfall in FY2027-28 based on current coupon auction sizes and bill supply (prev. saw USD 1.1trln).
  • Debt Manager Jensen says dealers generally anticipate that nominal coupon auction sizes might next increase in early CY2027 (prev. late CY 2026 or CY early 2027), and expect Treasury to modify its forward guidance several quarters ahead of such a change.
  • The TBACCommittee unanimously recommended that Treasury maintain nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS auction sizes at current levels
  • TBAC continues to believe that increases in coupon issuance could be warranted in FY2027 and discussed potential changes to the forward guidance for Treasury to consider
  • Committee had a "healthy debate" whether Treasury should consider investing excess cash in the overnight Treasury repo market to generate investment returns while “maintaining prudent risk management and avoiding market disruptions”
    • Key design choices mentioned by Committee members include the time of day that Treasury deploys cash into the repo market, the specific market segment that Treasury would invest in (e.g., triparty, centrally cleared), and Treasury’s required return
    • Presenter stressed that the economic viability of investing in the repo market is dependent on the spread between the rate Treasury earns on repo investments and the Federal Reserve’s interest on reserve balances rate (IORB)
    • Committee agreed that while there are potential economic returns from such investments, their size and economic viability depend on the market environment and monetary policy, and that additional study is warranted regarding operational and implementation considerations
  • Committee discussed the expansion of central clearing in Treasury securities market and the presenter reviewed key areas of progress by both the industry and regulators since the extension of the implementation deadlines, noting the recent increase in central clearing activity
  • Presenter highlighted recent requests for exemptions related to certain inter-affiliate and extraterritorial transactions as key outstanding issues to resolve
  • Presenter concluded that, although the industry has made steady progress, some operational and implementation challenges remain as the market transitions to expanded central clearing
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:24

NANO Nuclear Soars On Strategic MOU With Supermicro For Powering AI Data Centers 

NANO Nuclear Soars On Strategic MOU With Supermicro For Powering AI Data Centers 

NANO Nuclear and Supermicro have agreed to explore the integration of NANO’s KRONOS microreactor system with Supermicro’s AI server and data center platforms for scalable nuclear-powered solutions. The news of the strategic collaboration - a critical moment in the integration of alternative energy source within the AI rollout - sent the stock soaring in pre-market

We anticipate the shorts are also taking notice with over 22% of shares loaned out

“The AI revolution is fundamentally an energy challenge,” said Jay Yu, Chairman and President of NANO Nuclear, “and we believe nuclear power is the only scalable solution capable of meeting that demand.”

Through this MOU, NANO Nuclear and Supermicro will explore opportunities to:

  • Deploy NANO Nuclear's microreactors to provide dedicated, on-site nuclear power for data centers.
  • Integrate Supermicro's AI server racks, cooling systems, and infrastructure with nuclear-powered energy solutions.
  • Develop joint go-to-market strategies for hyperscale, enterprise, and edge data center customers.
  • Enable a new class of self-powered, grid-independent AI infrastructure.

"This is exactly where the future is heading compute and power becoming a unified solution," said James Walker, Chief Executive Officer of NANO Nuclear. "By aligning with Supermicro, NANO Nuclear is stepping directly into the center of one of the fastest growing and most capital-intensive markets in the world."

By partnering with Supermicro, NANO Nuclear gains direct alignment with a company at the forefront of the AI infrastructure buildout, providing:

  • Access to global data center customers and hyperscale operators.
  • Integration pathways with state-of-the-art AI hardware ecosystems.
  • A channel into one of the fastest-growing sectors of the global economy.

NANO is able to lean into their significant progress of deploying a KRONOS microreactor at the University of Illinois. The company recently submitted their construction permit application for the project and is well into the site preparation phase.

The company has also made strides with new partnerships in the Asian market, and has an agreement with BaRupOn for up to 1 GW of KRONOS microreactors for a data center campus in Texas. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:00

OpenAI Co-Founder Greg Brockman Defends Company's For-Profit Pivot... And His Own $30 Billion Payday

OpenAI Co-Founder Greg Brockman Defends Company's For-Profit Pivot... And His Own $30 Billion Payday

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times,

In the second week of a high-profile jury trial that could have profound impact on the race for artificial intelligence, OpenAI president Greg Brockman rejected allegations that he and other co-founders betrayed the company’s philanthropic mission and illegally enriched themselves by flipping the non-profit lab into a for-profit corporation.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk in 2024 sued Brockman and CEO Sam Altman, alleging they bilked him of $38 million in donations then restructured as a for-profit corporation by exclusively licensing their flagship product to Microsoft—betraying a founding mission to operate as an open-source charity that would counter the risks of profit-driven AI.

OpenAI and Microsoft deny the allegations, arguing that Musk abandoned the company in 2018 to start his own for-profit competitor, xAI, when other founders rejected his bid to take full control of the operation.

“I think we’ve been very consistent on the mission,” Brockman told a federal court in Oakland.

“If you look at what we’ve accomplished—currently the foundation has $150 billion worth of OpenAI equity value. That’s something we’ve built through hard blood, sweat, and tears through all this time since Elon left.”

The company’s nonprofit foundation has a 27 percent stake in OpenAI’s for-profit corporation; Microsoft, which has invested more than $13 billion since 2019, owns 26 percent.

Called as an adverse witness for the plaintiff, Brockman over two days May 4–5 offered testimony outlining an alternate narrative and timeframe than the one Musk presented the week prior.

Brockman also attempted to add context to what he has claimed were “cherrypicked” segments of his personal diary, unsealed during the discovery process.

He often spoke in incomplete sentences, punctuated by stock phrases like, “We were solving for the mission.”

Arguably, this had less zing to it than, “You can’t just steal a charity”—a phrase Musk favored in his own testimony.

‘Morally Bankrupt’

Musk’s attorney Steven Molo grilled Brockman on a series of diary entries from 2017 and 2018, a time of intense negotiations with Musk over the future structure of the company.

In one from 2017, Brockman muses, “It’d be wrong to steal the nonprofit from [Musk] and turn it into a B-Corp without him—doing so would be pretty morally bankrupt.”

Brockman denied this contradicted his commitment to OpenAI’s mission. “I think I meant it would actually serve the mission, but it would be hard to look at yourself in the mirror,” he told the court.

Under cross-examination, he explained he was referring to the idea of voting Musk off the board of directors, which he had considered at the time.

“It had been made clear to us,” he said, “that if we didn’t come to [Musk’s] terms, he was going to start an AGI competitor.”

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is the hypothetical point at which digital intelligence reaches or surpasses human cognitive abilities and can operate autonomously.

Some, including Musk, believe we have already achieved an early version of it, and that AGI advancement in the wrong hands poses the greatest existential threat to humanity. Musk testified that this threat was the express motivation for creating OpenAI as an open-source, nonprofit lab.

From late 2017 to early 2018, Musk, Altman, Brockman, and Ilya Sutskever, another OpenAI co-founder and its former chief scientist, floated various ideas as they debated how to fund the project at a competitive level.

Musk, the main donor, rejected an even equity split among the four co-founders, instead proposing a deal that would give him majority stake, to be diluted as more investors joined.

Brockman said he and Sutskever were willing to accept Musk being CEO and having a majority stake. “But the one thing we could not accept was to hand him unilateral total control over the AGI.”

Musk was the wrong man for the job, according to Brockman.

“Look, he knows rockets, he knows electric cars, he did not and I believe does not know AI,” Brockman said of the Tesla and SpaceX CEO.

“And Ilya and I did not think he was going to spend the time required to actually get good at it.”

Brockman alleged Musk “didn’t recognize that spark” in early language models underlying the GPT technology. “It was there, a working version, we could see the promise. … We really needed someone running the company that had that effect.”

Molo pressed the witness, pointing to emails from Musk proposing a 16-person board for the new corporation, in which Musk would have a 25 percent influence.

“This is the man you’re saying wanted to be the AI tyrant and have absolute and total control?” Molo probed.

“He wanted a board, and conducted in a way you were not familiar with because you didn’t have the experience of corporate governance, did you?”

Brockman acknowledged, “Definitely, this is something I was new to,” but maintained that there was never a real plan for Musk to relinquish control.

In a January 2018 email to Musk and others, Brockman stressed that a moral high ground was “our best tool,” and to maintain it, the company should endeavor to remain a nonprofit. “AI is going to shake up the fabric of society, and our fiduciary duty should be to humanity.”

But back in November 2017, Molo pointed out that Brockman’s diary entries show he was worried about how it would look if the founders continued to say they were committed to a nonprofit while planning to convert to a for-profit.

“Cannot say that we are committed to the nonprofit. Don’t wanna say that we’re committed. If three months later we’re doing b-corp then it was a lie,” Brockman wrote. “Can’t see us turning this into a for-profit without a very nasty fight.”

When Musk issued an ultimatum in 2018 to “either go do something on your own or continue with OpenAI as a nonprofit,” Brockman said he was “devastated.”

“It felt like we were so close to something that could actually succeed at the mission … and it was all blown up.”

$30 Billion Question

Molo accused Brockman of plotting to use OpenAI to become a billionaire, this time referencing journal entries made six days after he’d told Musk he wanted to continue to fundraise for the nonprofit, in which he asks, “What will take me to $1 billion?”

“There’s a lot of context here,” Brockman said. “It was expression of a frustration, not a plan.”

He described it as a “fork in the road,” where he would either accept Musk’s terms or part ways with him.

The road without Musk led Brockman to a $30-billion equity stake in OpenAI’s for-profit corporation. But Brockman said it was not about the money: “I think I’d be happy with either of those routes,” he said in court.

Molo pounced. Why then, if he was “good with a billion,” would Brockman not donate the extra $29 billion to the nonprofit to which he had a fiduciary duty?

“That was really about picking between these two roads … which one will I actually be happy with? ... Feel enthusiastic getting out of bed, and do [sic] the work every day?” Brockman said.

“It takes $30 billion to get you out of bed in the morning, but $1 billion doesn’t get you out of bed?” Molo asked. “You had a fiduciary duty. … You took the assets from the nonprofit, you moved them into the for-profit to create this money-making machine that resulted in you having $30 billion.”

Implying that he raided the charity to enrich himself was “a deep mischaracterization,” Brockman said.

Molo also grilled Brockman on a commitment he made to donate $100,000 to the nonprofit but never delivered—and on billions in deals that OpenAI has secured with at least three other companies in which Brockman has an ownership stake.

The plaintiff’s attorney also highlighted a 2017 “side deal” in which Altman gave Brockman around $10 million of equity in the company holding assets of his personal family office.

When pressed, Brockman said he didn’t conceal this from Musk.

“Elon’s time was relatively hard to get, there were a lot of decisions to make that we weren’t able to broadcast to him,” he told the jury.

Sam Altman listens as OpenAI President Greg Brockman testifies during Elon Musk's lawsuit trial over OpenAI's for-profit conversion before U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers at a federal courthouse in Oakland, Calif., on May 4, 2026, in a courtroom sketch. Vicki Behringer/Reuters

Origins

Under cross-examination, Brockman told a story about the beginnings of OpenAI—from which Musk was conspicuously absent.

The spark, he said, began at a small dinner party in Menlo Park, where attendees considered whether it was too late to create an AI lab that could compete with Google’s Deep Mind project—at the time, the world leader in AI. That was in July 2015.

Musk was there, Brockman said, but the real catalyst was an agreement between himself and Altman, the same night, that “this was the most important thing we could imagine doing.”

He got to work, acting along with Altman as “the main drivers” of the project.

By November, they had assembled a list of 10 names for an “offsite” event in Napa Valley, nine of whom ended up joining OpenAI’s team. “It was an amazing day of creative energy, people really clicked,” Brockman said. So much so that, as their van remained stalled in traffic for 1.5 hours, “no one noticed because the conversation was so good.”

Brockman said he had no contact with Musk between the dinner and the offsite. “I expected he would donate,” he said of the Tesla founder, suggesting his role was relegated to little more than closing calls and occasional advice.

Under re-direct, Molo challenged this characterization.

“I know he wasn’t in the van with you guys on the highway, but he was instrumental in founding and kickstarting OpenAI, was he not?” Molo said, noting that Musk provided the dominant funding, vision, and leveraged his formidable relationships to recruit talent and resources.

Mission Creep

Brockman also denied that Musk was concerned with open-sourcing the company’s technology, or keeping it as a non-profit forever.

By the time the company made its public launch in December 2015, Brockman said, Musk was already considering they might need to add a for-profit corporation in order to be competitive. But the Tesla CEO’s concurrent pledge to donate $1 billion never materialized.

Musk donated an estimated $38 million to OpenAI from 2015 through 2020.

OpenAI’s mission statement, posted in 2015, notes a goal of advancing digital intelligence “in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return.”

Brockman edited the original, in which Musk had used the word “unencumbered.”

“I understood this as a lack of constraint, we had a lot of freedom. We had not made commitments,” Brockman said Monday.

In 2023, the year Microsoft invested $10 billion in OpenAI’s for-profit subsidiary (the company restructured in 2025 to its current form, a public benefit corporation), Brockman wrote the board with a proposed change to the OpenAI charter, indicating he had been “wrong at times” about the original set up, and that “we’ve grown to regard capitalism not as a constraint, but instead, as a positive force,” according to evidence presented by Musk’s attorneys.

The Board never approved the updated charter, but Musk’s team argues it articulates a marked shift—away from OpenAI’s mission.

“No way Microsoft is giving that as a donation in any kind of charitable way,“ Musk testified last week, recalling his thoughts at the time. ”This is a bait and switch.”

Realizing that the non-profit would be “subservient” to the for-profit, he said, “This is when I thought there had been a breach of charitable trust.”

Brockman testified he never made any commitments to Musk that OpenAI would remain a nonprofit, nor that it would continue to open source its technology.

Musk is asking that OpenAI be reverted to a nonprofit, that more than $100 billion in damages be returned to it, and that Altman and Brockman be removed from their leadership roles.

U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers told the jury on May 5 that she expects all evidence to be presented by early next week, at which point they may begin their deliberation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:45

Corning Shares Erupt On Nvidia Deal To Supercharge Fiber Optics Output By 10x

Corning Shares Erupt On Nvidia Deal To Supercharge Fiber Optics Output By 10x

U.S.-based glass company Corning soared in premarket trading in New York after announcing a new mega deal with Nvidia to expand manufacturing capacity for fiber optic production used in AI data centers.

"Corning will increase its U.S.-based optical connectivity manufacturing capacity by 10x and expand its U.S. fiber production capacity by more than 50% to meet the accelerating demand driven by AI factory buildouts," Nvidia wrote in a press release. 

The expansion includes three new manufacturing plants in North Carolina and Texas and is expected to create more than 3,000 high-paying U.S. jobs.

In a filing, Corning disclosed that Nvidia is making a $500 million equity-linked investment.

Under the deal, Corning issued Nvidia two warrants:

  • Traditional warrant: Nvidia can buy up to 15 million Corning shares at $180 per share.

  • Pre-funded warrant: Nvidia can buy up to 3 million Corning shares at a nominal exercise price of $0.0001 per share.

Both warrants are exercisable immediately and expire within three years, unless earlier triggered by the termination of the partnership agreement or a major M&A transaction.

Nvidia noted, "Corning's expanded capacity will supply the optical connectivity hyperscale data centers use to deploy NVIDIA-accelerated computing at scale." 

In premarket trading, Nvidia shares are up 2.4%, while Corning shares are ripping higher, up 20%.

The Corning-Nvidia deal to expand fiber-optic production to supply data centers comes as hyperscalers are set to spend $700 billion this year alone on data center buildouts.

UBS trader Robert Ruple told clients last week that "there was a mixed bag of hyperscaler prints that leaned generally constructive and nothing he would call out that really shifts the narrative. Most critical was that Microsoft, Alphabet, and META all lifted capex forecasts, which should be enough to keep the AI thesis in play." Read the full note here.

However, we must point out: "Banks Are Choking": The AI Debt Bubble Has Started To Burst ... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:30

Deja Vu All Over Again: Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Optimism, Tech Rally

Deja Vu All Over Again: Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Optimism, Tech Rally

US equity futures are up big this morning and making fresh all time highs, led by tech companies, while oil prices and bond yields fell sharply on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal. As of 8:00am Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.7% while those for the S&P 500 gained 1%, with both gauges set to build on record highs. Iran is evaluating a new proposal from the US to end their near 10-week war, according to an Axios report. If Tehran accepts the terms, it will lead to a gradual reopening of Hormuz and lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports. Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel. That comes as US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon for the first time since July 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped eight basis points to 4.35%. In the UK, the rate on two-year UK gilts tumbled 17 basis points. The dollar hit the lowest level since February, while gold topped $4,700 an ounce. Bitcoin rose for a seventh straight day. US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)

In premarket, most Mag 7 names are higher: Alphabet (GOOGL) climbs 1.6% after the Information reported that AI startup Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years (Amazon +1%, Apple -0.5%, Nvidia +2.5%, Meta +0.5%, Microsoft +0.1, Tesla +0.6%)

  • Miners, cruise operators and airline companies gain, while energy and fertilizer stocks fall, after a report on the US and Iran nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.
  • Semiconductor, power equipment and data center stocks rally after solid results from Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro — in a sign of robust end-to-end artificial intelligence-related demand.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rallies 19% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is stronger than expected, a sign of robust AI-related demand.
  • Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) sinks 16% after the medical device company posted sales for the first quarter that disappointed Wall Street. TD Cowen calls the report a “tough start to 2026.”
  • Apollo Global (APO) rises 3% after the alternative asset manager eclipsed $1 trillion of assets under management on record first-quarter inflows and reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.
  • Compass Inc. (COMP) gains 31% after the real estate brokerage platform reported first-quarter revenue that beat average analyst estimates. The firm’s second-quarter revenue forecast is ahead of consensus.
  • CVS Health (CVS) rises 5% after the health insurer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit and comparable sales for the first quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
  • Geo Group (GEO) gains 11% after the private correctional facilities company boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, with the guidance beating the average analyst estimate.
  • Klaviyo (KVYO) falls 18% after announcing Amanda Whalen will step down from her role as CFO. The application software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and the outlook was raised on key metrics.
  • Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) rises 2% after reporting quarterly sales that beat Wall Street expectations, as higher prices and the company’s investments in its lagging brands helped boost North American sales.
  • Primoris Services (PRIM) slumps 31% after the construction and engineering services company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
  • Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) leaps 13% after the company reported improved margins and gave a profit forecast that suggested it’s controlling the costs of getting powerful AI servers into customers’ hands.
  • TransMedics (TMDX) falls 21% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. It also reaffirmed its revenue forecast for the full year.
  • Uber Technologies (UBER) gains 9% after providing a better-than-expected forecast for bookings, signaling that robust demand from US commuters and travelers will offset impact from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
  • Veracyte (VCYT) rises 14% after the diagnostics firm reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average Wall Street analyst estimate.

In other corporate news, Novo Nordisk’s new Wegovy obesity pill fueled sales in the first quarter and the drugmaker said this year’s proft and sales declines won’t be as bad as previously expected. BMW expects profitability to remain broadly stable this year as the automaker offsets a downturn in China with robust sales in Europe. Samsung reached a $1 trillion market valuation after shares more than quadrupled over the past year on booming demand for AI chips. And the FT reported that China’s main chip-sector investment fund is in discussions to lead a fundraising round for DeepSeek at a valuation of about $45 billion. 

Risk assets soared and oil tumbled, as geopolitical and micro tailwinds fueled risk-on sentiment broadly across the market. On Geopolitics, Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel following an Axios report that US & Iran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for more nuclear talks (and said US expects Iranian responses on key points in the next 48 hours). Here are the details from the Axios report:

  • A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
  • US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
  • MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
  • If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
  • Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
  • Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
  • Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.

Separately, last night Trump paused “Project Freedom” in the Strait citing “great progress” towards an agreement. 

“The market continues to price in de-escalation and an easing in supply constraints,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “The road ahead is bumpy, but the direction of travel seems clear.”

AI euphoria is also helping the rally. Alphabet is up in premarket trading after the Information reported Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. AMD was priced for perfection ahead of results, but managed to deliver, with shares soaring after the chipmaker gave robust predictions for longer-term growth. That’s adding to nerves about how Nvidia will retain its grip on the AI processor market in the face of intense competition.  

Meanwhile, looking under the hood, while both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s record highs, the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. This thin leadership is raising “yellow flags” for Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider, while Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau also noted earlier that stocks seem “increasingly disconnected from signals coming from the rates and oil markets.”

In politics, voters in Ohio handily backed Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid to be the Republican nominee for governor, while Democrat Sherrod Brown will get another shot at returning to the Senate after being defeated in 2024. Ken Griffin said he plans to make Citadel’s Miami tower even bigger after New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani name-checked the billionaire in his pledge to charge more taxes on second homes.

In private credit, Oaktree Capital cut the value of one of its funds by almost 4% as the firm marked down its software assets. A New Mountain Capital private credit fund that sold almost half-a-billion-dollars of assets at a discount earlier this year and used some of the cash to scoop up beaten-down loans says the strategy is already paying off.

Elsewhere in geopolitics, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iran to keep negotiating in pursuit of a lasting truce with the US, as he hosted Tehran’s top diplomat just days before Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing. The clash between Trump and Pope Leo XIV has flared up again, complicating a delicate diplomatic mission by Marco Rubio to the Vatican this week.

Looking at earnings, of the 375 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 84% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 11% have missed.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 2.3% with breadth strong. Mining and automobile shares are leading gains, while energy and utilities stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

  • The Stoxx 600 basic resources sector rallied as much as 4% as gold and copper edged higher after US President Donald Trump touted progress on a final agreement with Iran
  • Novo Nordisk shares jump as much as 9.2%, the most since Dec. 23, after the Danish drugmaker raised its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit
  • Demant surges as much as 17%, the most since October 2008, after the firm delivers sales ahead of consensus expectations in the first quarter
  • Pandora shares rise as much as 11%, continuing a rally from March’s 3.5-year low, after the Danish jewelry maker’s first-quarter Ebit margins beat estimates, partly due to a change in the timing of certain costs
  • Kongsberg shares rise as much as 11%, their steepest jump since February, after the Norwegian defense technology firm posted what Morgan Stanley called strong results across all metrics
  • Diageo shares gain 6.6% after the British maker of Johnnie Walker and Guinness reported organic net sales for the third quarter that beat analyst estimates and maintained its full-year guidance
  • Vestas shares rise as much as 2% as the Danish wind turbine maker reported 1Q Ebit before significant items that beat the average analyst estimate
  • Equinor declined as much as 6.3%, its biggest drop since April 17 after the energy company reported total revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
  • Wolters Kluwer falls as much as 14%, the most since 2003, after 1Q results that were broadly in line but did little to resolve the AI debate that has weighed heavily on the stock
  • Orsted shares drop 4.4% after the Danish wind farm operator reported 1Q Ebitda that beat the average analyst estimate, while after-tax profit missed

Tech optimism saw the Kospi hit another record high in APAC trade as Samsung joined the $1 trillion valuation club.  Asian stocks jumped to a record, with technology shares leading gains after positive company forecasts reinforced confidence in continued growth tied to artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2.6% to a record high, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and MediaTek providing the biggest boosts. Equities in South Korea, Thailand and China led the advances, while Japan’s market was closed for a holiday. Chinese stocks posted gains after the market reopened after a five-day holiday, with tech shares leading the rally. The government estimated more than 1.5 billion passenger trips took place during the break, while box office grew to 758 million yuan ($111 million). Sentiment was also lifted by improvement in a private gauge of services activities in April. Investors will also keep their eyes on the expected summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump next week for potential signs of easing tensions.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.8% as expectations of a Fed hike by year-end have been fully unwound.  The yen surged after a 4th consecutive intervention by the BOJ/MOF but a large portion of the initial dip in USD/JPY has retraced.      

In rates, sovereign bonds are rallying around the world and treasuries hold a strong bid in early US session, with futures on session highs amid a slump in oil prices after Axios reported Washington and Tehran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for further nuclear talks, with nothing agreed upon yet. Subsequent reports indicated Iran is evaluating a new US proposal to end the war. US front-end and intermediate yields dropped at least 10bp, long-end yields about 7bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 3bp-4bp; 10-year fell 9bp to 4.33%. Fed-dated OIS contracts flipped back to pricing in chance of a rate cut this year, with around 6bp of easing priced in for September, and trimmed pricing for a rate hike in 2027. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am, with consensus expectation for unchanged coupon auction sizes, however some banks anticipate new forward guidance, shortening the time frame for stability from “at least the next several quarters” IG dollar issuance slate includes three deals so far. Six names priced $5.25 billion on Tuesday with issuers paying less than 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 7.2 times covered — nearly double the year-to-date average. At least two borrowers elected against moving forward

Measures of US corporate-credit risk improved in the opening minutes of trading, with the gauge for high-grade notes at its tightest in over two months. The environment coming into the US session was already positive for debt capital markets, with investment-grade spreads matching their tightest level since Feb. 20 on Tuesday and leveraged-loan prices at their highest level since then. Though there have been 15 high-grade bond sales to start the week, just $13.6 billion has been raised

In commodities, crude prices are sliding with Brent down over 9% and just below the $100/bbl mark. Spot gold and silver post respective gains of 3.4% and 6.5%. Bitcoin is higher by 0.7%.

US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.9%,
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +1.2%,
  • Russell 2000 mini +1.5%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +2.2%,
  • DAX +2.4%,
  • CAC 40 +2.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -7 basis points at 4.35%
  • VIX -0.7 points at 16.72
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.7% at 1187.12,
  • euro +0.7% at $1.1769
  • WTI crude -6.6% at $95.52/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Axios
  • Trump posts: If Iran agrees to deal, the blockade of the Hormuz Strait will be lifted. "If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. "
  • Donald Trump earlier said he would pause US efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz as he seeks an agreement with Iran, citing “great progress.” The blockade on Iranian ports remains. BBG
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met w/his Iranian counterpart on Wed and called for a swift reopening of Hormuz. BBG
  • China Is Still Supplying Drone Factories in Iran, Russia Despite U.S. Sanctions. Obscure Chinese companies are openly shipping dual-use goods such as engines and batteries, defying American controls. WSJ
  • The US will implement its 25% tariffs on cars and trucks from the EU “relatively soon” if the bloc doesn’t swiftly ratify a long-delayed trade deal, the American ambassador to the bloc Andrew Puzder said. BBG
  • China’s biggest state-backed semiconductor investment vehicle is in talks to lead the financing of DeepSeek’s first fundraising that could value the AI group at about $45bn. FT
  • Novo shares jumped as its new Wegovy pill boosted sales, and the company guided to a smaller-than-expected revenue decline this year. The oral version had the best US launch of any GLP-1. BBG
  • Alphabet outperformed its Magnificent Seven peers premarket after the Information reported that Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. BBG
  • The yen hit a two-month high, spurring fresh intervention speculation. BBG
  • While both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s records highs, the S&P500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. BBG

Axios report on MOU between the US and Iran

  • A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
  • US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
  • MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
  • If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
  • Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
  • Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
  • Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.

Other Iran News

  • US President Trump posted that Project Freedom will be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed, blockade will remain in full effect.
  • Journalist Mallick posted "...i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.". Full post:"As what I understand, while the ball largely lies in Iranian court when it comes to US - Iran negotiations, i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.".
  • Iranian and Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministers held a phone call; stressed continuing diplomacy and prevent escalation of tensions.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said US demands from Iran are impossible and unattainable.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov, in which the US-Russia relationship, Russia-Ukraine war and Iran was discussed.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson denies the UAE's accusation that Iran fired missiles and drones at it, stating that Iran's defensive actions were exclusively directed at the US, according to a statement. UAE is cooperating with the US and Israel against Iran.
  • Israeli Ambassador said relations with the UAE are growing.
  • IRGC denies any involvement with the attacks on the UAE earlier in the week.
  • Pakistan's PM thanks the US President for pausing Project Freedom, in response to a request from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, among others.
  • "Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi held a telephone conversation with US Secretary of War Hegseth about bilateral relations in various fields", Tasnim reported.
  • The two US commercial ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had military security aboard, NBC reported citing sources.
  • A French bulk carrier was hit by a cruise missile in the waters near the UAE, CBS reported citing officials.
  • CMA CGM confirms a vessel was the target of an attack on Tuesday while it was crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the green, following on from the gains stateside and the positive update from President Trump, stating that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short time to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed. ASX 200 neared last week’s peak of 8787, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses. The bounce was supported by Financials and Industrials, while Energy lagged as oil prices fell. KOSPI surged at the open, breaking the 7000 handle, and even activated the buy-side sidecar within the first 5 minutes of trade. Tech giants helped the surge in the index, with Samsung Electronics (+15%) being the latest Co. to join the USD 1tln market cap group. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the positive risk-on tone as Shanghai returned from holidays. CK Hutchison gained after the Co. agreed to sell its 49% stake in VodafoneThree, while Wuliangye Yibin underperformed after a double downgrade at Goldman Sachs. On the data front, RatingDog services PMI beat estimates, which further supported the indices.

Top Asian News

  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, Xinhua reported.
  • BHP (BHP AT) CFO said new investors are buying into the Co. on copper exposure and AI demand.
  • KOSPI sidecar activated after KOSPI 200 futures rise by 5%.

European bourses are stronger across the board, buoyed by optimism surrounding US-Iran peace. Opened higher as markets reacted to Trump’s decision to temporarily pause “Project Freedom”, and then took another leg higher to make fresh peaks on an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. European sectors are entirely in the green, except for Energy and Utilities; the latter, unsurprisingly, is hampered by losses in underlying oil prices. The top of the pile consists of Basic Resources (lifted by strength in metals prices), Autos and Consumer Products. The Autos sector has been driven higher by post-earning strength in BMW (+5%, beat exp. but faced fierce price competition in China) and Continental (+5.5%, Q1 results topped exp. and confirmed guidance). The Consumer Products sector has benefited from gains in jewellery-name Pandora (+9%) after Q1 revenue beat estimates, but did experience weakness across North America and Europe.

Top European News

  • EU PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. -0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 3.7%).
  • EU PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -3%, Low. -0.5%, High. 2.1%).
  • EU S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.6 (Prev. 50.7).
  • EU S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 47.6 vs. Exp. 47.4 (Prev. 50.2).
  • UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 50.5).
  • UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.6 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 50.3).

FX

  • Snapshot: G10s are stronger against the USD this morning, to varying degrees. Antipodeans outperform, given the risk tone; JPY is also towards the top of the pile, following likely intervention overnight. SEK is a touch weaker vs EUR, after a cooler-than-expected inflation report, but is unlikely to shift the dial for the Riksbank on Thursday.
  • DXY is weaker this morning, and currently trades at the lower end of a 97.79 to 98.34 range. Pressure facilitated by the risk-on mood, amidst optimism surrounding progress towards US-Iran peace. This stems from a post from the POTUS, who announced that the US would pause Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations to occur. The move lower was then exacerbated after an Axios report suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. In its current form, it would declare and end to the war with Iran. Potential JPY intervention also facilitating the pressure this morning
  • Focus overnight was on USD/JPY, where an aggressive move lower took the pair to a 155.00 handle, before bouncing back towards 156.00. There is currently no confirmation that the move was intervention, but markets should begin to get some details on recent moves late in the Japanese session. Time will tell whether these attempts of intervention proves effective, given the volatile nature of the Middle Eastern conflict. A near-term resolution will help the USD/JPY trundle lower, a factor which Japanese Officials would probably require to achieve any lasting strength in the JPY.

Central Banks

  • ECB's Cipollone said the EZ inflation trend is moving towards adverse.
  • ECB Wage Tracker: 2026 annual 2.282% (prev. 2.270%). Q1 1.847% (prev. 1.887%). Q2 2.131% (prev. 2.10%). Q3 2.553% (prev. 2.521%). Q4 2.597% (prev. 2.574%).
  • BoE Governor Bailey said we must be mindful of risks of private credit.
  • NAB sees the RBA hiking in June to take the cash rate to 4.60%.
  • RBNZ Governor Breman said banks are resilient under stress tests.
  • RBNZ Financial Stability Report: New Zealand's financial system is resilient and well positioned to support households and businesses even if economic conditions soften. The global risk environment has worsened over the past six months, as conflict in the Middle East threatens world energy supply.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8562 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.8628).
  • BoK official said inflation is seen higher in May and are closely monitoring inflation trend as uncertainty is high over the Middle East situation.

Fixed Income

  • Unsurprisingly, a bullish start for fixed income as the marked energy retreat has allowed yields to ease. Pressure in energy facilitated by a) Trump pausing Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations, b) Axios report suggested US-Iran are close to an MoU. (See geopols section for details).
  • USTs to a 110-28+ peak, with gains of 15 ticks and breaching Monday's WTD 110-26+ best. For the US, aside from geopols, we are attentive to ADP ahead of NFP on Friday; ADP is seen at 79k from 62k, vs a 73k (prev. 178k) consensus for Friday's Payrolls. Additionally, we get the full Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement after Monday's projections, before remarks from Fed's Musalem (2028) and Goolsbee (2027).
  • Bunds post gains in excess of 80 ticks and currently hold just off a 125.88 peak. A high that printed in proximity to the above geopolitical updates this morning, and after a slew of Final PMIs, which were subject to modest revision. Of note for policymakers, the ECB's latest wage tracker showed upside across the year. Though, the ECB will at this stage likely welcome the relatively modest level of upside and particularly that the Q4-2026 figure remains shy of the 2.709% reported in February.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 48 ticks before climbing another 30 ticks to an 87.32 peak, notching a new high for the week, but remain shy of last week's 87.03 closing price. Potentially capping a return to and test of that level is the ongoing scrutiny around PM Starmer, as UK press continues to brief that the challenge against Starmer is increasing, with the Welsh Labour leader seemingly primed to call for Starmer to step down on Friday and reports that the party is working to get Burnham back in the Commons.
  • Germany sells EUR 2.662bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.50% 2032 Bund Auction: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.1x), avg. yield 2.8% (prev. 2.78%), retention 23.94%.

Commodities

  • Energy on the backfoot after US President Trump paused Project Freedom to allow time for talks and potential progress with Iran. An update that weighed on crude overnight, sending WTI below USD 100/bbl and Brent beneath USD 108/bbl. Thereafter, the complex took another hit after an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict (see geopols section for details).
  • As it stands WTI Jun’26 and Brent Jul’26 are holding towards session lows at USD 93.96/bbl and USD 101.46/bbl, respectively. Brent now eyes USD 100/bbl to the downside, and a further leg lower could see a retest of the low from 27th April 2026, at USD 99.58/bbl.
  • Gold is benefiting from the energy and USD downside, XAU as high as USD 4,708/oz, matching its 21 DMA. Base metals are also firmer, cheering the general risk tone and welcoming the return of Mainland China. 3M LME Copper above USD 13.2k, with gains in excess of USD 150 as things stand.
  • China has ordered its oil refineries that purchase crude from Tehran not to comply with or enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil, CNN reported.
  • Australia's PM Albanese said that they are to lift minimum stockpiles of every type of fuel by around 10 days, the fuel reserve is to be around 1 billion litres and the package is to cost more than AUD 10bln.
  • Weekly private inventory data (bbls): Crude -8.1mln (exp. -2.8), Gasoline -6.1mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillates -4.6mln (exp. -2mln), Cushing -1.1mln.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin said China and the US are in communication on Trump's trip.
  • US Ambassador Puzder wants the US-EU trade agreement to be agreed on before July, Bloomberg TV.
  • US Envoy to India said Indian companies plan to invest over USD 20.5bln in the US tech, manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.

US Event Calendar

 

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Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:28

ADP Employment Report Signals Biggest Job Additions In 15 Months In April

ADP Employment Report Signals Biggest Job Additions In 15 Months In April

With non-farm payrolls looming, we get another glimpse at the labor market today from the ADP Employment Report which shows the US economy added 109k jobs in April (a slight disappointment relative to +120k exp). That is the tenth straight month of job additions and strongest monthly addition since January 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Goods-producing jobs rose 15,000 while Service-providing jobs rose 94,000.

"Small and large employers are hiring, but we're seeing softness in the middle," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment."

Health care's continued strength, along with a rebound in trade, transportation, and utilities, fueled last month's acceleration in hiring. 

Pay growth for job-stayers slowed slightly to 4.4 percent, but for job-changers, year-over-year pay gains were steady at 6.6 percent.

Is the economy transforming from 'no hire, no fire' to 'higher hire, still no fire' gains (see JOLTS' record hiring).

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 08:23

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