David Stockman On Why America Doesn't Need "Allies"

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

The title is a bit crude and is deliberately mocking in tone. But it has to be because there is a deeply-entrenched, almost sacred presumption embedded in the nation’s foreign policy catechism that “allies”, “alliances” and “coalitions of the willing” are the be-all-and-end-all of enlightened, necessary and effective foreign policy.

American policy-makers and diplomats perforce should therefore never leave these shores for the wider world without them. This dogma perhaps reached its epitome in Secretary of State James Baker’s “coalition of the willing” during the utterly pointless first Gulf War of 1991 and has plagued us ever since. Unfortunately.

In fact, the truth is more nearly the opposite–so it needs to be stated coarsely, almost defiantly. To wit, allies in today’s world are mostly an albatross, completely irrelevant to the military security of the American homeland and a major source of unnecessary friction and even outright conflict among the nations.

In a word, America is such an outsized economic and military Hegemon that all the little and mid-sized nation’s it has lined-up in formal and de facto alliances are inherently incentivized to pursue policies that minimize their own defense investments—even as they are also encouraged to throw diplomatic caution to the winds. That is, Washington’s “alliances” enable the domestic politicians or elected governments of these small allies to be more aggressive or confrontational vis-a-vis the “bad guys” designated by Washington than they surely would be if operating only upon their own steam.

For instance, the former Estonian prime minister between 2021 and 2024, Kaja Kallas, and now foreign affairs chief for the EU has been a loud-mouthed, vitriolic critic of Russia and hardline supporter of sending other people’s money [i.e. yours] to the support of the equally pointless proxy war against Russia on the Ukrainian steppes.

Of course, with a population of just 1.3 million, GDP of barely $40 billion and armed force of 8,000, Estonia amounts to a cipher of an ally in the scheme of things. So it does absolutely nothing for America’s homeland security, even as it has emboldened Kallas to become a loud irritant to the Big Bear of a country next door.

Then again, if there were no such thing as NATO and the Article 5 military shield of the US, do you think Kallas would be noisily whooping it up for Zelensky? Would her people have tolerated her posturing as little David waving a sling-shot at the Goliath next door?

We dare say the very opposite would have prevailed. Estonia and its leader would have taken care to make nice to their extra large sized neighbor—as small countries have done from times immemorial.

And if making diplomatic nice and conducting mutually beneficial economic commerce wasn’t working for some reason, although it almost always does, they would have been obligated to arm themselves to the hilt. That is, mobilize 10-25% of GDP for defense, if necessary, rather than the pittance of 2.9% of GDP that Estonia actually spends. In turn, that would establish deterrence—the standing up to a potential aggressor the heavy cost in blood and treasure it would be obligated to face in breaching the borders and sovereignty of a smaller neighbor.

And, no, for crying out loud, the 21st century world is not unique when it comes to the relationships between big, small and middle sized nations. What we described above as making nice in diplomacy and economics and making deterrence clear is actually the way the world of nations is supposed to work, and, prior to the rise of the Hegemon on the Potomac, actually usually did.

Most certainly the gods of history have not conferred upon Washington’s politicians and apparatchiks a mandate to befriend and safeguard  from one end of the planet to the other every Little Guy from the heavy breathing of nearby Big Guys.

Kaja Kallas on X: “Ukraine’s brave and fierce fight for freedom has been an “inspiration” to the Estonian people. Many have joined the voluntary Defence League.

Indeed, in a world not dislocated by the Hegemon on the Potomac no one would think to describe the reckless foolishness of Kiev in militarily attacking and brutalizing the Russian speaking populations of the Donbas after the Maidan Coup of February 2014 as an “inspiration”. 

It was actually stupid beyond belief—something that neighbors not addled by the Hegemon’s military shield or egged on by the CIA, NED, USAID, the State Department and Pentagon would have no problem recognizing and observing.

Indeed that observation applies to the whole passel of little countries that have been admitted to NATO since the turn of the century.  For instance, when it comes to the five  small Balkan countries that do not even share the Black Sea shorelines with Russia, here is the pitiful military capacity and defense heft (measured as % of GDP) that they bring to America’s homeland security.

In order to put this pittance of military manpower in perspective, moreover, we first note by way of comparison the size of police forces in major US cities. While these domestic police men, women and theys may eat too many donuts on the job and thereby fail any combat readiness tests, when it comes to sheer human muscle the city police forces listed here outrank most of what these Balkan “allies” bring to the table.

Size of Police Forces In Major US Cities:

• New York City: 36,000.
• Chicago: 13,100.
• Los Angeles: 10,000.
• Philadelphia: 6,500.

This is by way of saying that all of the above cities have bigger forces of men in blue than do most of the small the NATO allies depicted below, where we show their active military manpower and their defense spending as a % of GDP.

• Croatia: 14,300/1.8% of GDP.
• North Macedonia: 8,000/1.7% of GDP.
• Slovenia: 7,300/1.5% of GDP.
• Albania: 6,600/1.7% of GDP.
• Montenegro: 2,350/1.6% of GDP.

Clearly, these countries are not shaking in their boots about the Russian Bear. In the most recent year of red hot proxy war between NATO and Russia on the hapless steppes of the Ukraine, none of these five even bothered to spend 2% of GDP on defense!

Indeed, even the bigger fry positioned cheek-by-jowl with Russia on the Black Sea didn’t evince any greater fear of the Bear. Romania spends only 2.2% of GDP on defense and its voters just elected a president who wanted to make friendly with Putin—which democratic chosen leader was, of course, ixnayed by Romania’s “allies” in Brussels and Washington.

Likewise, Bulgaria spends but 2.2% on defense, as well. And, understandably, Serbia has not even seen fit to join NATO. Well, not since its capital was bombed to smithereens in 1999 by NATO war planes, owing to its insistence that Kosovo not be severed from its sovereign territory owing to the writ of Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Even then as Russia’s firm ally in the region, Serbia spends about 2.3% of GDP on defense and has about 28,000 active men in uniform in its armed forces. That is, Serbia’s neutral forces total about the same as the combined military might of the five small fry on the Adriatic side of the Balkans.

Moreover, it also turns out that these five wee NATO members actually spend about the same pittance for military capabilities as is hoovered-up by Ukraine-bordering Hungary and Slovakia. The former spends about 2.0% of GDP on defense while the latter’s military spending is 2.1% of GDP. Yet both governments next door to the  Russian Bear are militantly opposed to the NATO proxy war in Ukraine and successfully get along with Moscow quite well!

In short, none of these countries really seem to fear the Russian Bear or they would be spending double digit percentages of their GDP making themselves so well armed as to make a unappetizing meal for the alleged aggressor in Moscow. To the contrary, they have either joined NATO to get into the Atlantic Club or have simply eschewed the opportunity (Serbia) or gone along for the ride (Hungary and Slovakia).

The point is, extending NATO to the Balkans was a stupid joke perpetrated by Warfare State apparatchiks in Washington and Brussels. It does absolutely nothing for America’s homeland defense militarily, while enabling Russia’s small next door neighbors to spend a pittance for defense and from time to time squeak-up to the Bear in a provocative manner that they would not dream of doing on the strength of 8,000 lightly armed soldiers of their own.

Of course, the same thing is true up north on the Baltic. The three Baltic republics both experienced and do remember their decades of Soviet occupation. Yet their present day budgetary statements make abundantly clear that they do not really perceive post-communist Russia to be the same existential same threat at all. That’s why they spend nickels and dimes on make-pretend militaries, even as their politicians like Kallas demagogue about Putin in order to stir up the home voters and incur the favor of the warmongering neocon apparatchiks who dominate the NATO and the EU.

Still, no countries with the wafer-thin military capacities depicted in the numbers below truly fear their Russian neighbor. If they did, with or without NATO, they’d put their budgetary dollars where the unfortunate rhetoric of some of the loud-mouthed politicians lies.

Armed Forces Size and Defense % of GDP:

• Lithuania: 14,100/2.8% of GDP.
• Estonia: 7,700/2.9% of GDP.
• Latvia: 6,750/2.4% of GDP.

In short, the Donald’s observations about the state of the world usually amount to a random collection of the true, the false and the foolish. But in the case of all these pipsqueak NATO allies he surely hit the nail on the head.

Washington’s “Allies” in The Baltics

That is to say, all of these allies are far more trouble than they are worth. The military security of the American homeland can be secured by an invincible strategic nuclear triad based on bombers, land-based ICBMs and its deep sea nuclear subs–none of which require foreign bases or foreign “allies”. That, and a powerful conventional Fortress America defense of its shorelines and air space would more than do the job of maintaining the military security of the American homeland in today’s world.

Neither of these military capabilities are enhanced in the slightest by the pipsqueak allies that have been drafted into NATO since 1999. Nor in today’s world is there any risk that a larger power as economically lame as Russia or Ponzi-based as Red China could attack, conquer and roll-up tens of trillions of GDP, military age manpower and defense production capacities among large numbers of their small fry neighbors.

Indeed, both Russia and China well know that the cost of invasion, conquest and pacification in today’s world would not remotely be worth the candle. That’s perhaps why the answer to the question as to how many countries Red China has conquered in the last four decades is, well,  zero!

To the contrary, what America’s 750 bases and 160,000 servicemen positioned abroad from Japan to Germany, Italy and the UK actually amount to are dangerous “trip wires”designed to:

• Provide an excuse for US defense contractors to sell weapons to the allied nations where US forces are based.
• Create an excuse to meddle in foreign conflicts owing to the fact that American servicemen are in harms’ way.

Suffice it here to note that during the heyday of America’s development as the greatest nation on earth—from the cancellation of the treaty with France in 1797 to the ratification of the NATO Treaty in 1949—America had no alliances, no military treaties and no allies empowered to provoke conflicts with their neighbors on the understanding that Uncle Sam had their backs.

He didn’t and during those 152 years everything worked out for America as well as any nation in history before or since. And absolutely nothing has changed to alter the wisdom of Washington and Jefferson about avoidance of Entangling Alliances.

*  *  *

The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. It could cause the most significant disaster since the 1930s. Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 15:10

Doug Casey On DOGE, Deficits, & The Coming Financial Earthquake

Via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: What’s your perspective on the claims Elon Musk and others made about the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) during the campaign, and how would you assess the actual progress they’ve achieved since then?

Doug Casey: I hate to sound pessimistic, because the idea of DOGE was excellent, but it’s not making much in the way of progress. Musk first thought he could cut $2 trillion from the budget. I see how he could say that; it’s a very reasonable estimate. But as he discovered the depth of the resistance, he reduced it to $1 trillion. And now it’s $150 billion—and he’s probably not even going to be able to do that.

Why is it failing? One reason is that Congress has legislated and mandated most of the spending, and the hundreds of agencies that carry it out—and Trump can’t eliminate them. Congress has to abolish these programs and agencies. All DOGE can do is make recommendations.

It’s true that the USAID building is closed, but apparently, many of its employees and programs have just simply been reassigned to the State Department or other places. They’ve made no progress on getting rid of the Department of Education.

I’m sure Trump very much wants to see DOGE be successful, but unfortunately its very name is “Government Efficiency,” and I question whether we really want the government to be more efficient. The only way to solve the problem isn’t by making government more efficient, but by abolishing agencies wholesale—not just trimming some fat.

Will there be a fundamental change? That’s unlikely because, as I’ve said many times before, Trump has no philosophical center. Nor any understanding of economics, as evidenced by his tariffs scheme, which I think will fail utterly—and may even be the catalyst that sets off the Greater Depression. He’s flying by the seat of his pants.

Equally bad—or worse—he appears to want an industrial policy for the US, where he’ll be making investments in all kinds of things to make the US a manufacturing center again. It’s like what Argentina did under the Peronists. He does whatever seems like a good idea at the time…

International Man: With Elon Musk signaling his impending departure from DOGE, how do you foresee the future of DOGE and its initiatives unfolding without his leadership?

Doug Casey: As Chairman Mao once said, “The helmsman sets the course that sails the ship.” And if the helmsman jumps ship, it’s questionable whether other crewmen can take over successfully. Maybe they will. But without the public profile and moral suasion of Musk, I suspect that the people he leaves in charge of this advisory agency will flounder.

And, remember, DOGE itself has no power. But the Deep State has an immense amount of power, and they’re fighting it tooth and nail—both with go-slow policies and by filing lawsuits everywhere possible to stop it from happening.

In the long run, just cutting things back can’t possibly work. It’s like pruning a plant. Gardeners prune plants to make them healthier. If you just prune agencies, they’ll grow back even more virulent. The only solution is for scores of them—hundreds of them—to be pulled out by the roots and Agent Orange sown where they grew. That’s not happening.

For instance, take Ukraine. Zelensky has become a billionaire, as have all his cronies, and the fighting is still going on. Why? Because the US is still sending them money and materiel.

I’m afraid serious cuts are bluster, not reality. And where can they really cut things? Are they going to take money away from the Veterans Administration or military pensions? No. Certainly not from the military itself—Trump has said they’re going to increase spending from $800 billion to $1 trillion. Are they going to cut back Medicare or Social Security? Abolish Medicaid? They should, but they won’t. These things, along with interest on the national debt, equal about 85% of spending.

They can’t reduce the interest burden on the federal debt; it will continue growing with more spending and higher interest rates. Which, I suspect, are headed toward the levels we saw in the early 1980s, when the government was paying 20% for its money.

Musk has said he’s found thousands of egregious cases of waste, fraud, and abuse that should be referred to the Department of Justice. But that’s far, far more than the DOJ can handle. Where are the headlines about prosecutions for the things Musk has talked about? I’m quite disappointed. I’d like to see hundreds of heads on stakes, but it looks like the bedbugs and cockroaches are just going to hide while the lights are on.

International Man: Do you believe DOGE’s proposed cuts will lead to genuine, permanent reductions in government spending—or will they simply free up funds for Washington to redirect toward areas like defense?

Doug Casey: All kinds of obvious things aren’t being touched—like the $50 billion the US gives to foreign governments around the world, a bottomless pit of graft. That’s not going to change. Certainly not the $4 billion the US gives to Israel every year, or the $4 billion it gives to Egypt every year to bribe it into being Israel’s BFF.

One thing that will kill any real progress from DOGE is subtle threats from the Deep State in general, and the praetorian agencies in particular. The NSA knows everything about everybody. If any DOGE employee gets too aggressive about breaking rice bowls or imprisoning bigwigs, they’ll be intimidated. These agencies know, or can fabricate, inconvenient things about them.

Or perform a cover up. Look at the Epstein case. We were supposed to learn what Epstein was up to, and with who. But everything’s being heavily redacted to protect guilty but well-connected people. The elite always close ranks to protect each other.

It’s all smoke but no fire. These agencies—with all the information they have—can destroy anyone who attacks them. If not now, while Trump is still in office, they’ll certainly seek retribution after he leaves. Our best hope—but it’s a long shot—is that Trump will realize that it’s kill or be killed, and will try to destroy them utterly while he’s still in power. That would be inviting civil war… but he has no real alternative.

International Man: Given that DOGE represents the most significant attempt to reduce government spending in generations, what are the implications if it fails?

Doug Casey: The economy is on the ragged edge, and with the tariffs creating economic chaos the Democrats may be re-elected in 2028. In fact, they may even win the midterms, which would guarantee that all of Trump’s efforts fail.

If the Democrats regain control of the government, they’ll redouble spending to try to forestall the Greater Depression and kick the can down the road for a few more years. And they’ll be supported by the American people, who are going to miss all the freebies the government was bribing them with. The average American has become so corrupt that he doesn’t want to have his doggy dish taken away.

For a while, during the first month of Trump’s presidency, it looked like it was going to once again be morning in America. But we’re finding out that morning only lasts six hours—and we’re already past noon. Things look quite grim.

International Man: As the US debt crisis intensifies, what steps should individuals take to protect their wealth—and what speculative opportunities do you see emerging from this turmoil?

Doug Casey: Even if we avoid a major war, I’m afraid the trend that’s been in motion for many decades is going to stay in motion and continue accelerating until the whole mess collapses under its own weight.

The US has become a giant multicultural empire revolving around the Washington Beltway. It could go down catastrophically the way Rome did. Or it may just degrade slowly like Spain or England. They still exist, but they’re hollow shells of their previous selves.

The financial, economic, political, and social problems we’re laboring under are leading to a breakup of the country. So, instead of the US getting bigger with the extremely expensive acquisitions of Greenland, the Panama Canal Zone, and—God forbid—Canada, the US is more likely to get smaller.

All you can do is try to insulate yourself. The way to do that is by diversifying your money safely out of the country and continuing to build significant positions in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. With hopefully some successful speculations along the way.

*  *  *

As Doug Casey makes clear, the US is spiraling toward a financial and political reckoning—and few are prepared for what comes next. In times like these, it’s critical to focus on real assets that stand outside the system. That’s why we urge you to see Doug’s latest video dispatch: The World’s #1 Investment Opportunity. In it, the legendary investor reveals what the mainstream media won’t tell you about gold—and why now may be the most important time in decades to act. Click here to see it now.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 14:00

Vietnam Q1 Auto Sales Outperform Asian Peers, Rising 24%, Led By Chinese Brands

Vietnam led Southeast Asia’s auto sales growth in Q1 2025, with a 24% year-on-year surge, outpacing larger markets thanks to strong economic momentum and rising public investment, according to Nikkei Asia.

Nikkei Asia data shows total sales across Southeast Asia’s five biggest markets—Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam—fell 1.7% to 732,898 vehicles.

In Vietnam, hybrid vehicle sales soared 80% to 2,562 units, driven by new models from Toyota and Suzuki. Commercial vehicles and trucks also saw strong gains, rising 22% and 21% to 15,445 and 13,400 units, respectively, supported by a 19.8% jump in public investment to $4.67 billion.

“We expect Vietnam's passenger car sales, excluding VinFast and some luxury brands, to grow 15% year on year in 2025,” said Thuc Than, an analyst at Vietcap Securities. “Our forecast does not take into account a possible negative outcome of the tariff negotiations,” she added, warning that higher tariffs could pose risks to growth.

Vietnam’s official auto sales stood at 118,813 vehicles, but including VinFast’s 35,100 units and Hyundai’s 11,464 units, total sales would surpass the Philippines’ 117,074 units.

The Philippines saw solid 7% growth, led by a 13.9% rise in commercial vehicle sales, even as passenger car sales fell 13.7%. EV and hybrid sales accounted for 5.73% of the market.

Thailand’s market shrank 7% to 153,193 vehicles, with ICE passenger car sales down 14% and pickup truck sales down 13%. EV sales, however, grew 19% to 22,737 units, boosted by Chinese brands like BYD, which saw March sales jump nearly threefold.

Nikkei Asia writes that despite the yearly decline, Thailand’s Q1 sales rose 14% quarter-on-quarter, topping 150,000 units for the first time in a year, aided by price cuts and promotions.

Malaysia, Southeast Asia’s second-largest market, also slowed. Sales fell 7.4% to 188,100 vehicles as backlogs cleared and the market normalized. March sales rose slightly by 2.2%, supported by aggressive marketing campaigns.

Chinese brands are making rapid inroads in Malaysia’s EV market. Proton’s first EV, the e.MAS 7, launched in December, has already received over 5,500 orders, with a second model, the e.MAS 5, expected later this year.

“The Chinese brands are offering very competitive and affordable prices,” said Periasamy Arumugam of Great Wall Motors. Jerry Chan of Jetour added, “Malaysian customers prefer big cars like SUVs,” noting that Jetour plans to manufacture vehicles locally in Johor to meet demand.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 13:25

The Ball's In Trump's Court After The Latest Istanbul Talks

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The mixed signals that he sent on Friday suggest that he hasn’t made up his mind about what to do...

The first bilateral Russian-Ukrainian talks in over three years were held in Istanbul on Friday after Zelensky agreed, likely under pressure from Trump, to Putin’s proposal from the week prior. They didn’t result in the unconditional 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine demanded nor did Ukraine agree to withdraw from the entirety of the disputed regions like Russia demanded, but they did agree to a prisoner swap and to hold another round of talks sometime in the future. They therefore weren’t for nothing.

Most importantly, Russia and Ukraine were able to show Trump that they’re interested in peace after he signaled his increasing impatience with the US’ hitherto unsuccessful mediation between them, which could result in him either “escalating to de-escalate” or simply walking away from the conflict. Prior to making his fateful choice about the future of American involvement, Trump will likely hold talks with Putin, at the very least over the phone but ideally in person sometime in the coming weeks.

After all, the ball’s now in his court after the Russian and Ukrainian positions have proven to be irreconcilable, so Russia will either inevitably obtain its maximum goals by continuing to rely on military means to that end or the US will double down on support for Ukraine in order to prevent that outcome. The only realistic compromise would be if the US successfully coerces Ukraine into withdrawing from some or all of the disputed regions in exchange for Russia agreeing to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

The US hasn’t yet attempted that even though it could have tried doing so anytime over the past three months since Trump returned to the White House, however, thus leading to the aforesaid scenario branch. It therefore remains unclear exactly what Trump will do. On the one hand, he just threatened Russia with “crushing” sanctions, but he also just complained about the billions that the US “pissed away” in support of Ukraine. It accordingly looks like he himself hasn’t yet decided how to proceed.

“Escalating to de-escalate” would entail enormous financial and strategic costs, the latter with regard to potentially offsetting his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia” for more muscularly containing China and even risking World War III in the worst-case scenario. 

At the same time, walking away would lead to him owning what could then soon become one of the West’s worst geopolitical defeats. The middle ground between these extremes could be strictly enforced secondary sanctions against Russia’s energy clients.

To elaborate, the aim would be to pressure China and India into drastically curtailing their imports, the first as a “goodwill gesture” after Trump’s newly announced “total reset” in their ties and the second as a means to signal its worth to the US in the hopes that Trump reconsiders his incipient pivot to Pakistan. Nevertheless, one or both might still refuse to comply or secretly continue to purchase large amounts of Russian energy, thus forcing the US to either turn a blind eye or worsen ties by sanctioning them.

A blend of these scenarios could see Trump threatening Zelensky with a clean break from this conflict if he doesn’t withdraw from Donbass while threatening Putin with strictly enforced secondary sanctions if he doesn’t accept a (unconditional?) 30-day ceasefire in the event that this happens. Calls could then be made to Xi and Modi to inform them of his plans in the hope that they’ll convince Putin to agree. Such a proposal would be the most pragmatic one from the US’ perspective and could lead to a breakthrough.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 12:50

Manhunt Underway: 3 Inmates Caught, 7 Still Loose After Brazen New Orleans Jailbreak

Late Friday night, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry announced on X that law enforcement had recaptured three of the ten violent inmates who escaped from a New Orleans jail through a hole in the wall behind a toilet.

"3 down, 7 to go, and we ARE NOT slowing down!" Landry said, adding, "LOCK THEM UP!" 

3 down 7 to go, and we ARE NOT slowing down!

LOCK THEM UP! pic.twitter.com/h8K5cQRwY1

— Jeff Landry (@JeffLandry) May 17, 2025

The brazen jailbreak was caught on video.  

Most shocking: The escape wasn’t discovered until a routine headcount around 8:30 a.m., giving the fugitives more than seven hours of freedom before the alarm was raised. https://t.co/FOaCTMtvEc

— Brian Entin (@BrianEntin) May 17, 2025

Before the inmates escaped, they left humorous messages on the wall for correctional officers, including "To easy LoL."

According to Sheriff Susan Hutson, the inmates broke out of the jail in Orleans Parish around 0100 local time on Friday. 

"We have indication that these detainees received assistance in their escape from individuals inside of our department," Hutson said. She noted that one jail employee saw the great escape through surveillance footage but did not report it. 

It wasn't until 0830 local time that jail authorities noticed the missing men after a routine head count, according to the sheriff. That gave the inmates a gap of plus seven hours to flee the area. 

The seven inmates still at large are Corey Boyd, Leo Tate, Jermaine Donald, Derrick Groves, Lenton Vanburen, Antoine T. Massey, and Gary C. Price. Those apprehended include Kendall Myles, Robert Moody, and Dkenan Dennis.

Meanwhile, we're not sure if the New Orleans police chief is after the escapees or the Batman...

JUST IN: New Orleans Cpt. Stephanie Minto-Gibson wears bizarre glasses to a press conference to give an update on the 10 inmates who escaped jail.

Only one of the inmates has been caught as of this time after the group escaped by removing a toilet from the wall.

What a… pic.twitter.com/CQcOOMyUwN

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) May 16, 2025

Inside job?

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 12:15

Recession Probabilities Decline

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The “Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” Rally

Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following “Liberation Day.” However, we also made competing cases for the bulls and bears on the market’s next move.

“It is always difficult to say whether this is a ‘bear market’ rally while you are in the midst of it. In hindsight, these things are easy to identify, and investors have plenty of reasons to play the ‘could’ve, should’ve’ game. However, some valid arguments exist about why the recent correction was just that, and may now be over.”

This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as shown, the markets are reaching decently overbought levels after being extremely oversold. This suggests that at least for now, the “easy money” has been made. With the market above the 200, and above the 50 and 20-DMA, pullbacks should be between 5600 and 5800. Investors can use such a pullback to increase portfolio equity exposures and reduce hedges accordingly. Conversely, 5000 to 5200 becomes the next critical target if those lower supports are violated. However, such would require some unexpected event to unfold.

Given the reduction in tariff-related risk and stable economic data, we suspect the market will hold bullish support. That statement follows our analysis from earlier this week, which discussed whether we have returned to a bull market or if this is still a bear market rally. That analysis compared the current market advance to the 2022 corrective cycle. However, that article elicited quite a few comments about why the recent “tariff” sell-off could be like the 2020 COVID-pandemic decline and recovery. It’s a fair question and worth a few words.

2020 vs 2025

As shown, there is an analogy between the current market recovery and that seen in 2020 following the pandemic. However, it is worth remembering that there are many competing differences between the current macroeconomic backdrop and that of 2020.

However, as we discussed in that previous analysis, even a “can’t stop, won’t stop bull market” gives those who can be patient better risk/reward opportunities to increase equity exposures. For example, after the initial rally off the March 2020 lows, the market pulled back and consolidated briefly before rallying further. Then, another longer consolidation process that year provided another entry point for bullish investors.

The weekly Technical Gauge we produce each week in this newsletter below follows the same path as 2020. While not yet back to bullish technical extremes, it is moving quickly higher to more elevated levels. When those readings reached 80, the market went through a longer consolidation process in 2020.

So, is this 2022 where the recent rally will fail and test lower levels? Maybe. Or, is it more like 2020, where the rally continues with only mild pullbacks along the way? Possibly. The true answer is that I don’t know. However, it is worth considering that there are many macroeconomic differences today compared to 2020. That lack of fiscal and monetary support, slowing economic growth, and tighter monetary policy are headwinds to higher stock prices. But, it is logical that the latest bullish market action has investors questioning a more cautious approach to the markets.

The same is true for us. We are currently underweight equities and hedged. However, the need for hedges is quickly declining, and the need for equity exposure is increasing. It’s a tough battle between creating portfolio performance and risk management. We are sticking with risk management until things become more certain, at least for now.

This week, we will discuss why another bearish case is fading – recession probabilities are falling.

A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Coliseum

“A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Coliseum” is a hysterical play by Craig Sodaro. In the play, Simplcuss, a naive Swiss farmer, heads for Rome to follow his dream of becoming a stand-up comedian; little does he know what adventures are in store. Stumbling into the house of General Spurius Sillius in search of food and water, he’s mistaken for the dreaded gladiator, Terribilus, who is due to fight in the Colosseum the following day. Simplcuss has to figure out how to save himself, and he overhears the General’s wife, Drusilla, and Senator Publius Piscious plotting to kill the Emperor’s daughter and the Emperor himself!

Without telling you the ending, there are many similarities to the current market. Over the last several months, the media headlines have been filled with stories of “Recessionus Terribulus.” Whether President Trump planned to deport illegal immigrants, Elon Musk and DOGE cutting government spending, or lately the fears of tariffs, all played into the media headlines of an impending recession.

Of course, there was also economic data to help support those claims. As discussed in the “Consumer Is Tapping Out,” rising delinquency rates are problematic. Particularly, for an economy driven by personal consumption. To wit:

“The current data point toward a recessionary risk. Deflation is highly correlated to economic growth rates, wages, and rates. Unsurprisingly, recessions reduce inflation as demand for goods and services collapses. While inflation may be “sticky,” the recent decline in bond yields and wages suggests consumer demand will decline this year. When tariffs, an additional tax on consumers, increase the cost burden, the reaction historically is not expansionary.”

Furthermore, last weekend’s #BullBearReport noted the rather sharp negative revisions to earnings estimates for the S&P 500 index.

“Given the slowdown in economic growth rates, it is unsurprising that, as of May 1st, S&P Global finally acquiesced and revised earnings estimates lower. However, this wasn’t a mild earnings revision but a slashing of estimates from their April 15th expectation of $292/share in 2026 to just $274. Furthermore, full-year 2025 reported earnings estimates were cut by nearly $20/share from $258/share to just $238/share.”

However, what is interesting is that despite these and several other indicators suggesting an increase in recessionary risk, the financial markets are currently putting in one of the strongest rallies we have seen since the COVID pandemic. Of course, much of that rally came on the heels of the relief of the sharp reduction of tariffs on China, one of the U.S.’s key trading partners.

As such, while Wall Street analysts and economists were slashing economic growth and earnings estimates just a month ago, striking fear into investors’ hearts, that has now reversed.

Recession Probabilities Are Falling

Following the announcements of trade deals with both the UK and China, recession probabilities for 2025 declined. Now, economists are rushing to reverse those previous recession calls.

The reality is that the onerous tariff levels initiated by the Trump administration were never permanent. This was a mistaken assumption by the mainstream media. Furthermore, the “inflation impact” from tariffs, which was expected to cause the recession, has yet to appear. Such is evident in both inflation reports this past week. The chart below shows the composite CPI/PPI index and whether inflation is above or below the long-term average inflation rate. Currently, inflation is 2% below its long-term average.

Inflation failing to appear is unsurprising and something we discussed in detail in “Tariffs Roil Markets.” In their rush to undermine the current administration, the media also failed to consider two important facts we discussed previously.

“The first is that Trump’s tariffs are a ‘stick and carrot’ for negotiating an agreement with both Mexico and Canada. As you will see, all he wanted was assistance in securing the borders, reducing illegal immigration, and arresting the illegal flow of drugs, especially “Fentanyl,” into the U.S. Therefore, any assistance provided by Canada or Mexico would lead to a reversal of those tariffs. Secondly, we stated the market’s opening would likely be the worst level of the day, so any “panic selling” of positions early in the morning would likely be a mistake.”

That same logic applies to China and every other country dependent on U.S. trade. Given that China depends on roughly $50 billion in annual trade (16.2% of total exports worldwide) to the U.S. for its economic growth, President Trump was correct in assuming he had a stronger hand in the negotiations.

With those tariffs vastly reduced, the risk of the recessionary impact from an excess “tax” on consumers is fading. However, even with the tariffs reversed, the economic data, while slowing, does not suggest that a recession risk is imminent.

A Recession-Proof Economy?

Doug Cass made a valid point this past week, asking if the “economy is now recession-proof.”

“Is the economy now recession-proof? Is this also now a syntax question as opposed to a practical question?

By a syntax question, this is what I mean. Recession is measured by reported GDP and reported employment. GDP is in part a function of reported inflation. If inflation is understated, GDP is overstated by the same amount. Employment includes jobs going to immigrants, second jobs, jobs created by the birth/death model, and jobs going to government employees that often have negative productivity and whose roles (regulatory and bureaucratic nonsense) end up harming the country and the economy, even though they help GDP in the short term.

The country thought we were in recession in the middle part of the Biden term. This includes very prominent financial minds and the average Joe. There is a reason the election went the way it did: “It’s the economy, stupid.” But, as measured by the official stats, there was no recession, and things were pretty good. Now, we are still not in recession, and as measured by the same stats, it still seems 50% likely we will not be in recession, and if we ever enter one, it feels like it might be mild, at least as measured by those same statistics.

So, is the economy now recession-proof? If we don’t go into a recession now, with the shaky foundation that was in place, including an overspent consumer, all the debt, global tensions, and all the uncertainty, it feels like we will never have a recession.”

It seems that way, but the one contributing factor that broke all pre-existing models was the flood of monetary and fiscal stimulus post the COVID pandemic. It may take us years to determine if the previous historical models and indicators, such as inverted yield curves, ever function as they did previously to gauge recession probabilities. Maybe they won’t.

However, as noted above, economists are rapidly reversing their predictions about the recession and now suggest that President Trump’s actions, while previously thought to be an economic disaster, might be beneficial. Furthermore, financial conditions are improving, which also supports economic activity. If that trend continues, particularly if the Fed resumes cutting interest rates, it should start to feed into consumer confidence. If consumer confidence strengthens, which would be logical following recent tariff resolutions, this should reduce recession probabilities further.

Understand the message here. As discussed two weeks ago, the economic growth rate is slowing, but recession probabilities remain low.

That does not mean that a recession is permanently avoided.

However, therein lies the problem with recession probabilities and predictions in the first place.

The Problem With Recession Predictions

It is wise to remember that in 2022, we had the most anticipated recession, which failed to occur and preceded one of the strongest bull markets in recent history.

The problem with predicting recessions is that economists always work off lagging economic data. Such is particularly the case with GDP, which is revised three times following the end of the quarter, 12 months, and 3 years later. Historically, given that lag, the timing of U.S. recessions can be off by 9 to 12 months before they are recognized by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The chart below shows the lag between the onset and recognition of previous U.S. recessions.

The following table better shows the lag between the start and recognition of previous U.S. recessions. I have also noted the impact on financial markets as investors reprice earnings growth for a reversal in economic growth rates.

Investors must decide whether the current correction is “just a correction” or whether the risk of a U.S. recession is increasing.

Currently, few indicators suggest recession probabilities are rising. The Economic Composite Index (a comprehensive measure of economic activity comprised of more than 100 data points) is in expansionary territory. The EOCI index confirms the improvement in the 6-month rate of change in the Leading Economic Index (LEI), one of the best recession indicators, and current levels of economic growth. While economic growth will undoubtedly slow as all of the excess governmental spending under the previous Administration reverses, there is currently no recession warning in the data. That does not mean that it can not change in the future. However, for now, the risk of recession is extremely low.

Adding to that analysis, the economically weighted ISM composite index is also in expansionary territory, suggesting no current risk of recession. This composite index (80% service / 20% manufacturing) is why we wrote that there was no recession risk in 2023 or 2024 despite inverted yield curves.

Lastly, Government spending remains robust, which fuels economic growth. While the current Administration is looking to cut spending and reduce the deficit, which would weaken economic growth rates, they are making very little headway.

Furthermore, despite the hopes that DOGE would cut Federal spending, it has only returned to the post-financial crisis exponential growth trend as the Government continues to use “Continuing Resolutions” to fund the Government. These resolutions automatically increase government spending by 8% annually. In other words, spending doubles every nine years, so debt levels continue to rise, feeding into economic growth rates.

Conclusion: Staying Grounded Amid Market Volatility

While recession probabilities have resurfaced in the headlines following the recent market sell-off, the economic data does not yet support the narrative of an imminent downturn.

As I discussed in “The Risk Of Recession Is Not Zero,” the government is currently engaged in activities that will impact economic growth. If those actions are combined with those of an already struggling consumer, the risk of recession will undoubtedly increase. Thus, economists are now scrambling to reverse their recession calls.

Historically, recession calls tend to be premature, often relying on lagging indicators that confirm economic contractions only well after they have begun. Current indicators point to a slower economic expansion, not contraction. Although growth is slowing, a slower growth environment does not equate to a recession—a distinction investors must keep in mind.

The more significant concern for markets is the inevitable impact of slowing economic growth on corporate earnings expectations. With analysts projecting continued double-digit earnings growth into 2026, there is an apparent disconnect between these forecasts and the economic reality. History suggests that earnings will eventually revert to levels that align with economic activity, which could lead to further bouts of market volatility.

For investors, the key takeaway is to stay informed, focus on fundamentals, and avoid being swayed by short-term noise. While volatility and corrections are natural in market cycles, history shows that panic-driven decisions often lead to missed opportunities. As long as economic indicators remain expansionary, the risk of a recession remains low, though careful monitoring is warranted. Investors should continue to assess their portfolios, manage risk prudently, and position themselves for a gradual slowdown rather than an economic collapse.

How We Are Trading It

As noted last week, we continue to manage our portfolios in a manner that allows us to participate in the market while still hedging against underlying risk. As such, we have started rebalancing risk as necessary and adjusting portfolio holdings to improve relative market performance. Notably, the breadth of the market has improved, but as noted above, the short-term overbought conditions suggest the “easy money” has been made. We will wait for corrections to reduce cash balances further and remove portfolio hedges entirely. That is, of course, unless some other unexpected event surfaces that substantially increases market risk.

As noted, while the risk of recession has fallen, recession probabilities are not zero. As we said in Friday’s Daily Market Commentary:

“However, patience will likely pay off here. As noted previously, we are still on a weekly sell signal, which has historically led to short-term market underperformance. As shown, previous periods of historical weekly moving average crossovers typically involve a more extended period of consolidation or corrective price actions. The main exception to that rule was 2020, when the Federal Reserve intervened with massive monetary support. With yields rising and the Fed on hold, no excess support is coming into the market other than a surge in corporate buybacks. However, those are due to decline starting next month.“

Continue to follow the rules and stick to your discipline. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 11:40

Nvidia CEO Sees "No Evidence" Of AI Chip Diversion To China As Trump Rolls Back Restrictions

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has had a very busy week. He first joined President Trump's U.S. delegation to the Middle East, where he secured AI chip deals with Saudi Arabia, and is now in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, on Saturday morning.

Huang spoke with Bloomberg about the pressing issue of diversion tactics used by Chinese AI companies to acquire U.S. chips for their models. He stated there is no evidence that Nvidia's most advanced chips are being smuggled into China through dark supply chains to circumvent U.S. trade restrictions.

"There's no evidence of any AI chip diversion. These are massive systems. The Grace Blackwell system is nearly two tons, and so you're not going to be putting that in your pocket or your backpack anytime soon," Huang said. 

He added: "The important thing is that the countries and the companies that we sell to recognize that diversion is not allowed and everybody would like to continue to buy Nvidia technology. And so they monitor themselves very carefully."

Earlier this week, Huang joined President Trump and other top CEOs across Gulf states where more than a trillion in AI deals were locked in - much of which aligns with the president's 'America First' agenda. 

Nvidia secured a deal to supply 18,000 of its cutting-edge Blackwell chips to Humain, an AI startup just launched by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.

NEWS: NVIDIA and HUMAIN, an AI subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, announced plans to build AI factories that will transform the country into a global AI leader.

NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang participated in a state visit today to share how this effort… pic.twitter.com/4Au6NxvTQ6

— NVIDIA Newsroom (@nvidianewsroom) May 13, 2025

President Trump's scrapping of the Biden-Harris era "AI Diffusion Rule," which had been very unpopular with Silicon Valley, stifled U.S. innovation, saddled companies with regulation burdens, and undermined diplomatic relations with many countries, including ones in the Middle East.

"With the AI Diffusion Rule revoked, America will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lead the next industrial revolution and create high-paying U.S. jobs, build new U.S.-supplied infrastructure, and alleviate the trade deficit," a Nvidia spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal last week. 

Adding more color to Trump's new strategy, Jeffrey Kessler, U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, said, "The Trump administration will pursue a bold, inclusive strategy for American AI technology with trusted foreign countries around the world while keeping the technology out of the hands of our adversaries."

However, Shell companies and foreign adversaries have allegedly obtained Nvidia chips through dark supply chain channels, detailed in these reports:

• Trade Data Reveals Indian Biotech Firm Supplying US AI Chips To Russia

• Did DeepSeek Use Shell Companies In Singapore To Procure Nvidia Blacklisted Chips?

• Singapore Probes Nvidia AI Chip Shipments By Middlemen To Malaysia Amid DeepSeek Scrutiny

Huang concluded in the interview: "Limiting American technology around the world is precisely wrong," adding, "It should be maximizing American technology around the world."

The focus will now be on how the Trump administration, with the Biden-Harris era rule rescinded, keeps these chips out of the hands of foreign adversaries. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 09:55

The 'N' In SNAP Means Nutrition

Authored by Star Parker via The Epoch Times,

SNAP, or Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, is one of the nation’s largest welfare programs.

And, like all welfare programs, it is massive, it has grown prodigiously over the years and it is inefficient.

One glaring issue, which is gaining attention as a result of new Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again campaign, is the kinds of foods that recipients of SNAP funds can purchase.

And here we have convergence of bodily health and fiscal health.

The “N” in SNAP stands for nutrition. The point of the whole program is to help poor Americans eat and not forgo nutrition as result of insufficient funds to buy food. So why should government funds be used to purchase foods that are not fundamental to meeting the requirements of basic nutrition?

The program is funded by the federal government but administered by the states.

Now three Republican governors—governors of Arkansas, Idaho and Indiana—are joining the governor of West Virginia in seeking waivers from the federal government to permit them to remove soda, candy, and other sweets from the foods that can be purchased with SNAP funds.

SNAP funds flow from the Department of Agriculture, and new Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins showed her support for this move by appearing alongside of Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders when she announced that her state would seek a waiver to eliminate soda and candy.

According to the Foundation for Government Accountability, “Soda is the number one commodity purchased with food stamps. More food stamp money is spent on soda, candy, snacks, ice cream, and cakes than on fruit, vegetables, eggs, pasta, beans, and rice. Purchases of sweetened beverages, desserts, salty snacks, and candy exceed the program’s combined sales of fruits and vegetables by $9.4 billion a year.”

FGA goes on to point out that the incidence of obesity is higher among food stamp recipients than among those not on food stamps at similar income levels and that food stamp participants are “more likely to be at very high or extremely high risk” of the many health problems that result from obesity.

Per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in 1975, federal funding to the SNAP program was $4.6 billion. By 2000, it was $14.6 billion. In 2023, it was up to $111.2 billion.

Per Pew Research, in 1974, there were 12.9 million Americans receiving SNAP funds. In 2023, it was up to 42.4 million.

Most recipients are adults—63 percent are over the age of 18—and of adults receiving food stamps, 62 percent had not been employed at all during the year, 24 percent were employed over the year and 14 percent were employed part of the year.

Among children receiving food stamp payments, 56 percent were in homes with one or no parent.

Much discussion about reform of SNAP involves a more rigorous application of work requirements to receive funding. This points back to importance of health. If SNAP funds permit purchase of foods that are unhealthy, or damage health, so it seems SNAP funds contribute to undermining the ability of recipients to work.

Needless to say, as this initiative gains momentum, as it should, and as more states seek waivers to streamline their SNAP funding to foods that clearly aim to fundamental nutritional needs, the beverage and candy industry can be expected to be all over Congress to block the change.

The Wall Street Journal reported last December about ramped up lobbying by Coke, Pepsi and the American Beverage Association to leave their soft drinks in the purview of SNAP funding.

Some concerns have been expressed by grocers that increased specificity regarding what can be purchased can make administration and monitoring difficult. But surely technology can deal with this.

Removing non-nutritious foods and beverages from SNAP won’t balance our federal budget. But it is a no-brainer for our fiscal and physical health.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 09:20

Forget Seattle, They're Sleepless In Sweden

One in two Swedes are struggling to sleep, according to data from a Statista Consumer Insights survey.

The new data casts light on the prevalence of the problem in different countries, affecting more than a third of respondents in 17 out of the 20 populations surveyed.

 

You will find more infographics at Statista

Respondents were asked if they had experienced a sleep disorder in the 12 months prior to the survey. 

As Statista's Ann Fleck reports, in all of the countries included on the chart, women were more likely to have experienced a sleep disorder than men - with many seeing a 9 to 10 percentage point difference between the two. 

This was the case in Sweden, where 56 percent of women had experienced a sleep disorder in the past year versus 46 percent of men. 

In the U.S., there was a 6 percentage point difference (39 percent women to 33 percent men).

According to the Sleep Foundation, women and people assigned female at birth are more likely to experience insomnia. Researchers say this is the result of a combination of sex-based factors such as hormone production as well as gender-based differences, which “may be driven by social and cultural disparities”.

Predispositions to certain physical or mental health issues are also cited as possible factors believed to lead to higher rates of sleeplessness in women.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 08:45

Denmark And Italy Lead Pushback Against ECHR On Migration Rulings

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix news,

Denmark and Italy are spearheading a growing coalition of European countries calling into question the role of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in migration policy, according to reporting by French newspaper Le Figaro.

The two nations are said to be finalizing a joint declaration that denounces the Court’s recent rulings as overreach, particularly in cases where national efforts to restrict illegal immigration have been struck down.

The move is timed to coincide with the 75th anniversary of the European Convention on Human Rights, signed on Nov. 4, 1950. But rather than celebrating the institution that enforces it, the initiative reportedly seeks to “launch a debate” over whether the ECHR’s current interpretation of the Convention is still fit for purpose amid mounting challenges posed by mass illegal immigration.

“What was right yesterday may not be right today,” the draft letter reportedly states. Its aim is to gather support from like-minded countries within the 46-member Council of Europe. Besides Denmark and Italy, Czechia, Finland, Poland, and the Netherlands are expected to support the declaration.

Once finalized, the document is expected to form the foundation of an informal alliance pressuring for reform of how the Convention is applied, particularly regarding national sovereignty over immigration control.

The pushback follows a series of rulings by the ECHR that have infuriated national governments. In 2024, Italy was found to have violated the rights of three Tunisian migrants detained in an overcrowded facility on the island of Lampedusa. The Court described their treatment as “inhuman and degrading,” noting that the detainees had only two toilets for 40 people and that some were forced to sleep outside on mattresses.

Italy was further frustrated by recent domestic court rulings in Rome, citing the ECHR, which prevented the transfer of illegal migrants to reception centers in Tirana, following a bilateral agreement with the Albanian government.

Italian premier Giorgia Meloni has long been critical of the political overreach by the judiciary afforded to them by the European Convention on Human Rights. Speaking to the Italian press in 2023 following a ruling on migrant detention in Lampedusa, she said, “We are seeing a distortion in the application of the European Convention that no longer respects the rights of nations to defend their borders.”

Denmark, for its part, was the subject of a precedent-setting ruling in November 2024. In the case Sharafane v. Denmark, the ECHR questioned the legality of the applicant’s expulsion based in part on whether he could realistically expect to return to Denmark in the future. The European Centre for Law and Justice described the ruling as a de facto creation of a “right of return” for expelled foreigners, a move seen as directly undermining Denmark’s efforts to maintain a strict migration policy.

Following the ruling, Social Democrat government minister Rasmus Stoklund said, “The European Court of Human Rights has gradually shifted from defending basic rights to dictating policy decisions that should be left to democratically elected governments.”

Several other European conservatives have voiced their criticism of what they suggest is now outdated legislation no longer fit for purpose.

In October 2023, former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told the Sejm, “Poland cannot accept a situation where unelected judges in Strasbourg decide who can or cannot be expelled from our territory.”

Similarly, in February this year, the U.K.’s leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch, warned that Britain will “at some point probably have to leave” the convention if it “continues to stop us doing what is right for the people of this country.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 07:00

National Police Week: A Tribute To Our Law Enforcement Heroes

Authored by Rep. Elise Stefanik via RealClearPolitics,

This National Police Week, we pause to honor the men and women who put their lives on the line every day to protect our communities. We remember the brave officers who made the ultimate sacrifice in the line of duty, and we express our deepest gratitude to those who continue to serve with unwavering dedication. It is an important moment to reflect on the courage, sacrifice, and selflessness that law enforcement officers demonstrate daily, particularly in Upstate New York and across our great state.

To the law enforcement officers of Upstate New York, the North Country, and everywhere else across our nation: Thank you. Your service does not go unnoticed, and your commitment to keeping our communities safe is deeply appreciated. I stand with you, and I will continue fighting for policies that prioritize the safety of our communities, ensuring that you have the resources and support needed to do your vital work.

In these challenging times, it’s crucial that we stand up for those who serve us. While the far left continues to push anti-police rhetoric and policies that put our officers in dangerous positions, it’s more important than ever to back the blue. The far-left “Defund the Police” movement and the dangerous rise of anti-police sentiment threaten the very fabric of our communities. Our law enforcement officers are the backbone of our safety and security, and they deserve the respect, resources, and protection to do their jobs effectively. Their hard work ensures that law-abiding citizens can live in peace, free from fear.

Unfortunately, many on the left in Albany, Washington, and across the nation are taking law enforcement for granted. Policies like reckless bail reforms and calls to defund the police only endanger our communities. It’s time we recognize the critical role our officers play in public safety and stop allowing radical left movements to jeopardize their ability to serve and protect.

During my tenure in Congress, I have worked tirelessly to provide officers with the resources, training, and recognition they deserve. I introduced bills aimed at bolstering funding for police departments, improving officer safety, and enhancing mental health services for law enforcement personnel. I also have been a vocal proponent of holding criminals accountable while ensuring that police officers have the necessary protections to do their jobs without fear of unjust retribution.

In Upstate New York, we are fortunate to have some of the most dedicated law enforcement officers in the country. Their work has resulted in our district having one of the lowest crime rates in the nation.

I’m proud to stand with them and will always fight for policies that support law enforcement and keep our communities safe.

National Police Week may only last seven days, but the gratitude and respect we owe to our men and women in blue should echo every single day. Thank you to our heroes in uniform, and may we continue to support and protect them in their mission to safeguard us all.

Republican Elise Stefanik represents New York’s 21st District in Congress.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 23:30

Russian-Born Harvard Scientist Detained By US Charged With Smuggling Clawed Frog Embryos

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Russian-born scientist and research associate at Harvard University has been arrested and charged with allegedly attempting to smuggle clawed frog embryos and embryonic samples into the United States, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Massachusetts announced on May 14.

Kseniia Petrova, a Russian-born scientist who was a researcher at Harvard University, in April 2025. Polina Pugacheva via AP

Kseniia Petrova, 31, was charged with one count of smuggling goods into the country.

If found guilty, she faces up to 20 years in prison, five years of supervised release, and a fine of up to $250,000.

The charges were announced just hours after a federal judge in Vermont heard arguments in a lawsuit Petrova filed against the Trump administration alleging she has been unlawfully detained at an immigration detention center in Louisiana for months.

She was transferred out of the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to a nearby Louisiana parish jail shortly after being charged.

An initial hearing in her criminal case has been set for May 15.

Petrova, a Russian national, was first taken into immigration custody on Feb. 16 after arriving at Logan International Airport in Boston following a trip to Paris.

According to prosecutors, she was stopped by Customs and Border Protection agents after her checked duffle bag was flagged for inspection, revealing biological items including a foam box containing clawed frog embryos in microcentrifuges, as well as embryonic samples in paraffin well stages and on mounted dyed slides.

Such biological products must be declared and require a permit to be brought into the country.

Prosecutors said that Petrova initially denied carrying such material in her baggage but acknowledged she had biological specimens when asked again.

She was then advised that she was ineligible for entry to the United States, at which point prosecutors say she agreed to willingly withdraw her application for admission, prosecutors said.

The Trump administration has indicated it plans to deport her back to Russia.

Lawyer Says Case Is ‘Meritless’

Petrova said she fled Russia after it invaded Ukraine in February 2022 to avoid conflict or possible political repression. She added that she fears she will be imprisoned if she returns because of her political views.

Her lawyer, Gregory Romanovsky, called the case against his client “meritless” and questioned the timing of the charges being announced, noting she was transferred into criminal custody after the judge in her lawsuit set a May 28 bail hearing to consider releasing her.

“The charge, filed three months after the alleged customs violation, is clearly intended to make Kseniia look like a criminal to justify their efforts to deport her,” he said.

During an interview under oath, Petrova allegedly claimed to be unsure that she was required to declare biological material when entering the country, prosecutors said.

However, prosecutors said text messages on her phone from an individual identified as one of her colleagues informed her that she was required to declare the biological material.

They alleged that in response to one text message asking how she planned to get through customs with the biological samples, Petrova said: “No plan yet. I won’t be able to swallow them.”

*  *  *

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Petrova’s case has drawn criticism from Democrats, including Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, who filed an amicus brief on May 12 opposing the government’s efforts to dismiss her petition for release.

The brief states that Petrova had been conducting critical research on degenerative diseases at Harvard under a valid J-1 visa prior to her detention 10 weeks ago.

“Ms. Petrova’s case is not an isolated incident—this is just the latest example of the Trump Administration’s reckless and cruel misuse of power to punish and terrorize non-citizen members of the academic community,” Campbell said. “I will continue to fight to defend the rights of our international students and faculty, who meaningfully contribute to the academic and economic success of our communities.”

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Massachusetts said Petrova was recently employed by the Institute of Genetic Biology in Moscow from 2023 to 2024 and previously served as a bioinformatician of genetic disorders at the Moscow Center for Genetics from 2016 to 2023.

Harvard University said in a statement that it “continues to monitor the situation.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Petrova’s attorney for further comment.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 22:30

House Considers Universal De Minimis Ban As Fees On China Parcels Ease

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

The Trump administration this week rolled back the duty for small-dollar shipments from China and Hong Kong as part of tariff deescalation with China, while a House committee advanced legislation to permanently end the duty-free “de minimis” exemption from all countries. 

President Donald Trump’s executive order lowering new 145% tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% for 90 days represents a reprieve for popular Chinese shopping platforms and other e-tailers that ship parcels directly from the factory to individual shoppers. E-commerce orders and airfreight shipments plummeted after the U.S. government on May 2 rescinded duty-free treatment for low-value goods, subjecting them to the same duties imposed on all Chinese products.

Before then, U.S. trade law allowed an individual each day to import goods valued at $800 or less and use an informal entry process. The rule helped fuel cross-border shipping from Chinese shopping platforms direct to consumers. About two-thirds of all packages entering the country through the de minimis channel are from China. 

The executive order also proactively lowered fees for low-value shipments from China sent through the international postal system. Postal shipments under $800 are now subject to a 54% tariff instead of 120%. Carriers can opt instead to pay $100 per postal item containing goods. Monday’s order canceled a June 1 increase to $200 for the flat fee.

The revised fees still present a significant cost increase, but the pause provides retailers time to adjust operations.

Logistics professionals say shipping rates could rise as businesses rush to order goods before the next deadline. Trade publication Modern Retail reported that fast-fashion retailer Shein on Wednesday announced price reductions for U.S. customers following the relaxation of de minimis rules on Chinese imports. Shein had raised prices and cut U.S. advertising after the change in de minimis rules sharply increased delivery costs.

The publication also said that Temu had resumed selling nondomestic items to U.S. customers.

Momentum builds to turn off de minimis

Congress a decade ago increased the de minimis ceiling from $200 to $800 as a way of helping small businesses with an online presence take advantage of international trade. But attitudes began to change when huge Chinese sellers like Temu, Shein and Alibaba flooded the trade facilitation program to minimize costs, putting a strain on U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s ability to cross-check shipments for trade, consumer safety or security compliance. 

Critics say the exemption creates a conduit for criminals to smuggle goods with little scrutiny, gives overseas merchants an advantage over retailers that source domestic products and results in billions of dollars in uncollected tariff revenue. 

CBP last year processed an average of more than 4 million de minimis imports per day but says the minimal information supplied on the informal entry makes it difficult to identify and interdict illegal drugs such as fentanyl, as well as counterfeit products and other contraband. It also has found cases of importers misclassifying and undervaluing goods, and misdelivering goods before they are officially released from CBP custody.

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in December recommended that Congress eliminate de minimis eligibility for imports sold through online marketplaces.

On Tuesday, the House Ways and Means Committee approved a massive tax bill, which includes Trump’s tax priorities and a provision that would permanently end de minimis for commercial shipments from all countries by July 1, 2027.

“As the bill makes its way through the legislative process, we strongly support a more aggressive timeline to implement a permanent ban on de minimis globally given its significant harm to manufacturers, retailers, and the fight against fentanyl and other illegal products. Express shippers have already transitioned to processing all Chinese imports through sophisticated logistics systems, demonstrating their ability to comply with the president’s executive orders and pivot quickly,” said Kim Glas, president of the National Council of Textile Organizations, in a statement. 

 Meanwhile, other efforts are in progress to curb the use of de minimis entries.

Customs and Border Protection is developing a new rule, proposed in the waning days of the Biden administration, that would require certain shippers to electronically submit additional data elements on low-value consignments prior to arrival and would remove de minimis eligibility for imports subject to certain tariffs.

The White House has said it plans to use emergency powers to delete the de minimis exception once systems are in place to collect duties from millions of parcels per day, including ones sent through postal channels.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 22:00

How Legal Immigration Is Keeping Farms Afloat

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

LAKE VILLAGE, Ark.—On a breezy day, sun and shadow dance across Mencer farms, turning it into a patchwork of green in the fertile Arkansas Delta.

It is humid here in the deep South, where the clock seems to run slower and the temperature hotter than in other places.

Joe Mencer, owner of Mencer Farms in Lake Village, Ark., on April 29, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Lake Village is a small town sitting along Lake Chicot, an abandoned channel of the Mississippi River. Over thousands of years, flooding deposited rich alluvial soil, making it ideal for crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and corn.

As a child, William Mencer’s grandfather handed him a cowboy hat and a garden hoe to dig up the pigweeds growing between the crop rows.

The 31-year-old farmer remembers spending long, sweltering days alongside the farmworkers, his hands growing rough and calloused with the effort.

“So I learned, you know, what it was like for these workers,” he told The Epoch Times.

He vowed to escape the sweat and toil of the fields by going to law school and working in an office. But the family farm drew him back like a love song.

Now he is partnering with his father, Joe Mencer, to keep the farm afloat with temporary agriculture workers through the H-2A visa program.

The fourth-generation family farm, which costs $4 million per year to operate, includes 6,000 acres that they own and lease.

While some may claim agriculture needs illegal immigrants to pick crops and work the fields, Joe Mencer told The Epoch Times that they’ve never had an illegal immigrant come looking for work.

They can’t get anyone local to work either, meaning that if they didn’t have the guest farm workers, they couldn’t stay in business.

What Is the H-2A Visa?

It costs more to bring in temporary legal workers than it would if they could find enough people locally to work. But without temporary migrant workers, William Mencer said local farms would go bust, affecting the nation’s food security.

The process has become much more complex since the Mencers began using the guest worker program back in the 1980s.

So much so that the younger Mencer started a small law practice helping other farmers obtain the labor they sorely needed.

He also shares his knowledge with other farmers as a member of the Arkansas Farm Bureau.

The process of hiring workers through the program, sometimes called a guest worker program, starts early in the year for the Mencer family.

William Mencer, who works on his fourth-generation family farm, at Mencer Farms in Lake Village, Ark., on April 29, 2025. He partners with his father to keep the farm running with the help of temporary agricultural workers through the H-2A visa program. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

The paperwork needs to be filed 60 to 75 days before their start date, which is mid- to late-February, he said.

It costs as much as $5,000 to bring in several guest workers from Mexico to the United States, he said, noting that the cost doesn’t include the housing and transportation provided to the workers.

Most return home in mid-December, but they are eligible to stay for up to three years in certain situations when agricultural work is available.

The program requires the Mencers to advertise their farm jobs locally before they can be given to guest workers.

Joe Mencer, 65, noted that the rules call for him to fire any foreign worker he’s brought over if an American shows up and wants the job.

Tangled in Red Tape

The process to petition for workers with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service is antiquated, with all communications taking place via mail, according to William Mencer.

The government does not offer online services, email, or a phone number. If there’s a problem, then the farm’s labor source is jeopardized because of the lack of communication, he said.

“Sometimes things get lost in the mail. You know, literally,” he said.

One of his client’s petition paperwork didn’t arrive in the mail. So they filed a claim for the lost package and resubmitted the paperwork.

This time, the paperwork made it to the Dallas office, but the postal carrier found the original package and shipped it, too.

With both petitions filed with the government, it almost took an act of Congress to clear it up.

The younger Mencer sent a letter explaining what happened with the evidence to the government officials, just like he would in court, but the office didn’t respond.

He enlisted the help of his congressman to clear things up. By the time it was all done, his client was behind by a month in getting guest workers.

It makes him wonder if the difficulty and red tape is “by design.”

Joe Mencer, owner of Mencer Farms in Lake Village, Ark., on April 29, 2025. The Mencer family began using the H-2A visa program in the 1980s to bring in foreign workers. The program, often called the guest worker program, requires employers to first advertise farm jobs locally before hiring foreign labor. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

The workers are so important that the Mencers keep them busy even when the weather is bad, although it doesn’t help their bottom line.

When there’s no field work, they cut firewood for use in the winter months.

Joe Mencer said he realized a few years back that his son’s law degree would be helpful on the farm, especially given the increasing complexity of the H2A visa program.

Guest Worker Success

The Mencers said their farm couldn’t operate without H-2A visa workers, although the labor cost is higher than using local workers.

Farmers’ margins are already slim because of increased production costs for fertilizer, herbicides, seed, and fuel.

José Mondragon, who started as an H-2A visa worker, is now a green-card holder. He has worked for the Mencer family for nearly 30 years.

Others, such as Gabino Mondragon (no relation to José Mondragon) are H-2A visa holders who have only been working at the farm for a few years.

José Mondragon lives with his wife in a little house on the farm surrounded by flowers and trees. The 57-year-old has deep roots in the land, even serving as a pallbearer when Joe Mencer’s father passed away.

In late April, he operated a self-driving orange Case Magnum row crop tractor, which plowed the earth between the corn rows to improve irrigation.

José Mondragon said he’s seen American workers quit after two or three months, long before the crops are harvested in the fall. The lack of local workers can open the door for temporary visa workers, which is good for everyone, he said.

“The people [are] asking us if we have some opportunities to come with my boss, and we say we will ask him,” he said.

José Mondragon said some people come to the United States illegally because they get into trouble with the law back home or to escape the cartels. Others come to make more money to help support their families in their native countries.

Workers from Mexico make $14.83 per hour on the Mencer farm as legal workers, with the wage set by the government for each state.

Green card holder Jose Delores Mondragon operates a tractor at Mencer Farms in Lake Village, Ark., on April 29, 2025.

José Mondragon said human smugglers, known as coyotes, charge people big money to cross the southern border illegally.

Gabino Mondragon has been working at the Mencer farm on a guest visa for two years. He is experienced at running a spreader for nitrogen fertilizer for corn. One truckload of fertilizer can cost $20,000, according to William Mencer, so having a skilled operator is critical.

Gabino Mondragon believes that more people in Mexico would like to apply for an H-2A visa. Still, if they are caught coming into America illegally, they won’t be eligible unless they get a waiver. It would depend on their record.

The Mencers brought Gabino Mondragon’s family over on an H-4 visa so they could live close by while he worked.

The H-4 nonimmigrant visa allows the spouse and unmarried children younger than 21 years of age to accompany the primary visa holder to the United States.

It’s also an excellent opportunity for Gabino Mondragon’s family because his children are going to school and learning English.

“If our people are happy, it just reinforces that it’s a good thing for everybody,” William Mencer said.

Hanging by a Thread

The high cost of labor, diesel, and chemicals is making it extremely difficult for family farms to stay in business, according to William Mencer.

“We’ve been in four or five really bad years now,” he said.

Some farmers are faced with losing their farms to foreclosure by banks over crop production loans, finding a different line of work, or selling out.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 21:30

Federal Contract Activity Slows As DOGE's Cost-Cutting Measures Take Effect

President Donald Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) have exposed widespread federal waste and mismanagement that Congress long ignored. Despite the existence of oversight bodies like the Government Accountability Office, it took an executive order to uncover billions of dollars in egregious federal waste.

DOGE's drive to cut waste and root out fraud in the bloated federal bureaucracy has already resulted in nearly 300,000 job cuts and an estimated $160 billion in savings. As detailed in our series of reports, DOGE's actions are delivering tangible results—helping to reduce the nation's overall funding requirements. 

The debt-fueled spending spree under the Biden-Harris regime placed the nation on a crash course to financial ruin—but recent corrective actions by the Trump administration and DOGE, for now, have helped steer the trajectory away from a financial crisis.

Readers may recall some of those tangible DOGE-related results:

• March Deficit Unexpectedly Tumbles To 5 Year Low As DOGE Cracks Down On Democrat Money-Laundering Schemes

• US Treasury Unexpectedly Reports Sharp Drop In Debt Borrowing Needs, Rates Slide

• US Treasury Shocks With Second Biggest Budget Surplus In History

• Jobless Claims Jumped Last Week As 'DOGE Actions' Spark Biggest YTD Layoffs Since 2020

• Is DOGE Starting To Work? 'Deep TriState' Jobless Claims Surged Last Week

Some progresshttps://t.co/hNCBVYB4YV

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 11, 2025

Everything outlined above points to a solid start for DOGE, which has already uncovered hundreds of billions in waste, fraud, and abuse. However, that progress could be undone unless Congress moves to lock in those spending cuts through the reconciliation bill.

DOGE has identified hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, fraud, and abuse, but unless Congress makes those spending cuts permanent through the reconciliation process, all that work will have been for nothing.@Paul_S_Mullen pic.twitter.com/7Y8j4T5ehJ

— Heritage Foundation (@Heritage) May 5, 2025

Another measure of DOGE's early success is the 20.5% reduction in non-defense federal obligations compared to 2024 levels—a decline that signals reduced future cash outlays as these obligations come due.

"Persistent government-wide contract reviews for wasteful spend, consistent with the DOGE Cost Efficiency Executive Order, are bearing fruit," DOGE's official X account wrote. 

Adding to the visible signs of progress, Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius, along with analysts Alec Phillips and others, noted Thursday that cash withdrawals from the Treasury General Account across several federal agencies continue to fall below 2023 and 2024 levels—yet another encouraging sign of success. 

Also, new monthly federal contract obligations have sharply slowed under DOGE after four years of large spikes under the Biden-Harris regime. 

"Notably, new federal contracts data has undershot trend in recent months and stood at $18.2bn in April (compared to $31.1bn in April 2024). Total government grant awards remain stagnated at Inauguration Day levels," the analysts said. 

More color here. 

However, Hatzius and his team noted that year-to-date cash withdrawals from the Treasury General Account remain $123 billion above 2024 levels.

The early results of DOGE mark a shift in federal accountability. In just months, DOGE has uncovered hundreds of billions in waste, slashed nearly 300,000 federal jobs, and driven $160 billion in savings. Yet why did it take an executive order from the president to have a group take a deep dive into how federal agencies spend their money?

But this progress is not guaranteed. Without congressional action to lock in these cuts through reconciliation, the swamp remains open for the bureaucratic bloat to return. The message is clear: DOGE is working, but can only be sustained through political action.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 21:00

Jordan's King Warned US Against Assassinating Syria's Sharaa Before Trump Meeting

Via Middle East Eye 

Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned the US against assassinating President Ahmed al-Sharaa before the new Syrian leader met with President Donald Trump, a US senator said on Thursday.

The remarkable statement by a US senator reveals the deep hostility toward Sharaa in some circles of the Trump administration. It reaffirms Trump's own statements that he has been lobbied directly by foreign leaders to give Sharaa a chance, while his own advisors are skeptical. 

"I have been concerned by some rumors that I have heard in…some foreign policy circles of the administration that one option that’s been suggested is assassinating the new leader of the Syrian government, Ahmed al-Sharaa," Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen said in a Senate hearing on Thursday.

US Senator Jeanne Shaheen, via AP

According to Shaheen, Jordan’s King Abdullah II heard about the alleged discussions to assassinate Sharaa and warned against it.

“One of the things that was pointed out to us by King Abdullah was that a change in leadership of that kind would create an all-out civil war in Syria. That would not be good to take advantage of the opportunity we have to move that country forward,” Shaheen said.

Shaheen met with King Abdullah in Washington, DC, in May, suggesting that those discussions may have taken place just before Trump cancelled sanctions on Syria and met Sharaa. Shaheen made the remarks during her questioning of Joel Rayburn, Trump’s nominee for undersecretary of state for the Near East, the top Middle East position in the State Department.

The admission by Shaheen is remarkable, given the events of this week. Trump surprised his own senior officials and Israel by announcing he was lifting all sanctions on Syria. Trump then held a meeting with Sharaa in Riyadh on Wednesday.

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One after the meeting, Trump showered praise on Sharaa, saying he was a “young, attractive guy. Tough guy. Strong past. Very strong past. Fighter”.

Asked to comment on the assassination "option", Rayburn replied, “I’m not familiar with efforts like that, but that's clearly not in line with the president's intention…or his description of Sharaa in the past couple of days.”

Blindsided

Trump’s decision to remove all US sanctions on Syria, going back to 1979, was met with thunderous applause in Riyadh, but has annoyed members of the US government. Some in the US State Department who have advocated for sanctions relief also felt sidelined.

It must have been a tense meeting yesterday in Damascus between HTS chief Jolani and the head of Iraqi intelligence. Especially for the Iraqi delegation a hard pill to swallow as Jolani before his time in Syria was in Iraq with Zarqawi blowing up Iraqis. pic.twitter.com/mojl2jTmEd

— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) December 27, 2024

Just a few days before the announcement, the State Department’s Syrian advisors were briefing foreign counterparts that the Trump administration was set to keep sanctions on the new government in Damascus, one regional official told Middle East Eye.

Meanwhile, hardline members of Trump’s National Security Council have told counterparts privately that they would try to drag out the sanctions relief process to obtain concessions from Sharaa, one current and one former US official told MEE.

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy warned on Thursday about members of Trump’s administration working to “undermine” his decision. Rayburn’s hearing was notable because he was seen as hard line on Syria when he served as envoy to the country during Trump’s first term in office.

“I support the President’s goals and his initiative as he laid out,” Rayburn said. “It offers a golden opportunity to turn the page…the president is taking a bold move…he has expectations.”

The White House says it wants Sharaa to expel Palestinian fighters and foreign fighters from Syria, and combat the Islamic State militant group. Trump also said he discussed Syria normalizing ties with Israel. "I told him, 'I hope you’re going to join when it’s straightened out.’ He said, ‘Yes.’ But they have a lot of work to do," Trump said, according to a White House pool report.

Sharaa was the commander of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS, an Islamist group which toppled the decades-long Assad dynasty in December 2024. Sharaa participated in the Iraq insurgency after the US’s 2003 invasion and served time in a US prison. He once pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda.

The Biden administration removed a $10m bounty on Sharaa's head in early 2025, but he is still designated a "global terrorist". That designation is likely to be removed now, given Trump's order, experts say. 

Sharaa’s closest foreign ally is Turkey, but his country has also been moving towards the Gulf states. On Tuesday, Trump told the world he was asked to remove sanctions and had two advocates to credit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

The UAE has been holding indirect talks between Israel and Syria to de-escalate tensions. Israel has been striking Syria for months and occupies a swath of southwestern Syria. The Trump administration lobbied Israel and Turkey to enter deconfliction talks in Syria earlier this year.

Ali al-Rifai, director of public relations in Syria's information ministry, was asked by Kan News after Trump’s announcment about the prospect of his country joining the Abraham Accords, the agreement curated by Trump in 2020 that saw a number of Arab countries recognise Israel. “Peace with everyone, without exception,” he responded.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 20:30

The Rise And Fall Of Synthetic Food Dyes

Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In 1856, 18-year-old chemist William Henry Perkin was experimenting with coal tar-derived compounds in a crude laboratory in his attic.

His teacher, August Wilhelm von Hofmann, had published a hypothesis on how it might be possible to make a prized malaria drug using chemicals from coal tar, and as his assistant, Perkin was hoping that he would be the one to discover it.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

The experiment was a failure. Rather than the prized drug, Perkin created a thick brown sludge. However, when he went to wash out the beakers with alcohol, it left behind a bright purple residue.

The residue became the world’s first-ever mauve synthetic dye.

Before the invention of synthetic dyes, people obtained dyes through organic materials such as plants, clay, minerals, or certain animals such as insects and squid.

Natural dyes such as those from clay tended to fade quickly, and those that were long-lasting, such as natural indigo dyes, required an arduous extraction process that made them expensive.

However, Perkin’s mauve dye was stable and easy to make.

Mauve dye became an instant hit in the UK and globally. Consumers were seized by “mauve measles.” Everyone wanted a piece of it, including Queen Victoria, a fashion icon at the time who ordered mauve gowns, hats, and gloves.

Perkin’s discovery and commercial success prompted chemists in Europe to find more dyes in coal tar; magenta was discovered in 1858, methyl violet in 1861, and Bismarck brown in 1863.

Synthetic dyes would soon be added to everything—clothing, plastics, wood, and food.

The rapid innovation was not without consequences. Many dyes were found to be harmful within decades of discovery. More than a century later, the United States recently announced the removal of synthetic dyes from food.

Dyes in Food

For centuries, people have colored food to make it appear more appealing. Butter, for example, is not always yellow. Depending on the cattle feed, breed, and period of lactation, the color of butter can fluctuate seasonally, from bright yellow in the summer to pale white in the winter.

“Dairy farmers colored butter with carrot juice and extracts of plant seeds, called annatto, to give them a uniform yellow all year round,” Ai Hisano, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo specializing in cultural and business history, wrote in the Business History Review.

Butter is made at a factory in a biological treatment plant in Albertville, France, on April 26, 2016 (L); Butter melts on toast. Jean-Pierre clatot/AFP via Getty Images, Scott Olson/Getty Images

Natural colors, unlike artificial ones, are susceptible to changing pH, temperature, and moisture. They can change in hue and intensity, and yellows can become pale.

The practice of mass coloring and striving for uniformity likely emerged as a result of industrialization in the late 19th century, when packaged and processed foods became widely available, according to Hisano.

“Mass production and industrialization required easier, more convenient ways of making food, and using coal-tar dyes was one of the solutions for creating more standardized food products,” Hisano told The Epoch Times.

Since packaged foods lose freshness, they may lose color or look less natural. So previously, some companies would add compounds such as potassium nitrate and sodium sulfites to products such as meats to preserve their color. These compounds were relatively harmless.

More lurid examples include toxic metals such as lead used to color cheese and candies. Copper arsenate was added to pickles and old tea to make them look green and fresh, and reports of deaths resulted from lead and copper adulteration.

Dye companies started producing synthetic food dyes in the 1870s. Food regulation began in the 1880s. The Bureau of Chemistry, a branch of the Agriculture Department that would later become the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), looked into food adulteration and modification.

Dairy products such as butter and cheese were the first foods authorized by the federal government for artificial coloring.

Just as synthetic food dyes are a prime target of current Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and FDA Commissioner Martin Makary, they weren’t popular with Bureau of Chemistry head Harvey Wiley, who wrote in 1907, “All such dyeing materials are reprehensible, both on account of the danger to health and deception.”

Despite Wiley’s criticisms, by the time his book “Foods and Their Adulteration” was written, practically all the butter on the market was artificially colored.

“The object of coloring butter is, undoubtedly, to make it appear in the eyes of the consumer better than it really is, and to this extent can only be regarded as an attempt to deceive,” Wiley wrote, arguing that if the cows were properly fed during winter, they would naturally produce butter of the appealing yellow shade.

“The natural tint of butter is as much more attractive than the artificial as any natural color is superior to the artificial.”

The FDA

The previous year, in 1906, Congress passed the Food and Drugs Act, prohibiting the use of poisonous or dangerous colors in food. The FDA was formed on the same day the bill was made into law.

After the prohibition, the FDA approved seven synthetic food dyes—most of which would be banned in the 1950s after new animal studies indicated their toxic effects.

However, the FDA has always given greater scrutiny to synthetic dyes than to natural ones. Synthetic food dyes must be given an FDA certification before they can be used, but there is no requirement for natural dyes. While the FDA regulates synthetic dyes as a food additive, natural dyes can be regulated as generally recognized as safe, which is a less stringent authorization procedure.

In 1938, new laws were passed requiring all food dyes, whether synthetic or natural, to be listed on product labels.

By the 1950s, as oil and gas replaced coal as the main sources of energy, food dyes were no longer made with coal tar derivatives; they were made with petroleum-based compounds instead.

These new petroleum-based food dyes are considered very similar in composition and chemistry to their earlier coal tar counterparts, food scientist Bryan Quoc Le told The Epoch Times.

“Petroleum is cheaper, safer, and available in greater quantities,” he said.

The use of synthetic food dyes has been steadily increasing every decade. Data based on FDA dye certification suggest that food dye consumption has increased fivefold since 1955.

A 2016 study estimated that more than 40 percent of grocery store products that were marketed to children contain artificial colors.

Many packaged snacks contain synthetic food dyes. Scott Olson/Getty Images, Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Cancer Concern

By the time Wiley became the first head commissioner of the FDA, experts were in contention over which food dye was riskier than the other. Over the following decades, dyes that were initially approved were gradually whittled down to the six remaining dyes of today.

In 1950, many children fell ill after eating Halloween candy containing Orange No. 1, a synthetic food dye. Rep. James Delaney (D-N.Y.) began holding hearings that prompted the FDA to reevaluate all approved color additives.

The hearing also led to the passing of the Delaney Clause, which prohibits the FDA from approving any food additive that can cause cancer in either humans or animals.

Orange No. 1 and several other approved dyes were removed after evidence of animal carcinogenicity.

The Delaney Clause was what prompted the removal of Red No. 3 in January under the Trump administration.

Professor Lorne Hofseth, director of the Center for Colon Cancer Research and associate dean for research in the College of Pharmacy at the University of South Carolina, is one of the few researchers in the United States studying the health effects of synthetic food dyes.

These dyes are xenobiotics, which are substances that are foreign to the human body, and “anything foreign to your body will cause an immune reaction—it just will,” he told The Epoch Times.

“So if you’re consuming these synthetic food diets from childhood to your adulthood, over years and years and years and years, that’s going to cause a low-grade, chronic inflammation.”

Hofseth has tested the effects of food dyes by sprinkling red, yellow, and blue food dyes on cells in his laboratory and observed DNA damage. “DNA damage is intimately linked to carcinogenesis,” he said.

His research showed that mice exposed to Red No. 40 through a high-fat diet for 10 months developed dysbiosis—an unhealthy imbalance in gut microbes and inflammation indicative of damaged DNA in their gut cells.

“This evidence supports the hypothesis that Red 40 is a dangerous compound that dysregulates key players involved in the development of [early-onset colorectal cancer],” Hofseth and his colleagues wrote in a 2023 study published in Toxicology Reports.

The mechanism of how food dyes cause cancer remains to be elucidated.

Hofseth speculates that the biological effects of red and yellow dyes may be attributed to the fact that they are what’s known as azo dyes. The gut hosts bacteria that can break down azo compounds into bioactive compounds that may alter DNA. Hofseth said he believes that if these bioactive compounds impair the gut, they may also contribute to the behavioral problems reported in some children after consuming food dyes.

Behavioral Problems

While the link between food dyes and cancer may remain elusive, the link between food dyes and behavioral problems in some children is much more accepted.

Rebecca Bevans, a professor of psychology at Western Nevada College, started looking into food dyes after her son became suicidal at the age of 7.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 20:00

Biden-Hur Tape Drops, And Boy Is It Rough - Listen To All Five Hours Here

Update: Listen to all five hours of the Hur-Biden interview below:

*  *  *

A segment of former President Joe Biden's October 2023 interview with special counsel Robert Hur just dropped, and boy is it rough.

Biden couldn't remember details such as when his son Beau died, when he left office as vice president, what year Donald Trump was elected, and why he had classified documents in his possession that he shouldn't have had.

According to Axios, which released the recording, Biden frequently slurred words or muttered, and "appears to validate Hur's assertion that jurors in a trial likely would have viewed Biden as "a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."

Listen:

Hur elected not to prosecute Biden for mishandling classified documents based partly on the former president's pea-soup brain - angering Republicans as Trump was facing his own charges of mishandling classified information.

It's also of course notable because the MSM insisted Biden was "sharp," and slammed Hur's assertions as politically motivated. 

Tapper says here that the footage of Biden freezing on stage was not a "Cheap fake". Exact words.

Okay so when he does he pull Brian Stelter on his show and ask him why he called it that, echoing the White house? When does the media pull Karine Jean-Pierre out of hiding and ask… https://t.co/D0JaXwKv65

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) May 16, 2025

The audio was from two three-hour sessions on Oct. 8 and 9, 2023 - which the Biden White House refused to release, arguing that they were protected "law enforcement materials," and that Republicans only sought to "chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes."

Let's go to the tape...

FLASHBACK: Karine Jean-Pierre attacked Robert Hur — refusing to release the transcript or audio, while claiming he had a partisan agenda to push. pic.twitter.com/DLdZXa4n3O

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) May 16, 2025

Ian Sams:

"To suggest that [Biden] couldn't remember when his son died is really out of bounds." pic.twitter.com/Roj31EBJyN

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) February 9, 2024

Don’t forget the way the press tried to dismiss Hur’s report. https://t.co/9Sd2NdVWuw

— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) May 16, 2025

How long did Axios have this recording? Before the election?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 19:47

Mississippi Has The Lowest Average Salaries In The US, D.C. The Highest

While wages in the U.S. have grown in recent years, many families are still feeling the squeeze of high inflation. Pay levels vary widely not just by profession, but also by geography.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, maps the average salary by U.S. state using the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of March 2025. The figures represent total private hourly earnings, not seasonally adjusted.

DC Tops the List

At the top of the list is Washington, DC, where workers earn an average of $52.89 per hour, far outpacing every state. This reflects the region’s concentration of high-paying jobs in government, law, and professional services.

Massachusetts comes in second at $42.50/hour, followed by Washington at $41.82, and California at $40.93. In common, these states are home to major tech, biotech, and finance hubs.

State/District Average hourly earnings District of Columbia $52.89 Massachusetts $42.50 Washington $41.82 California $40.93 Colorado $39.20 Connecticut $39.08 New York $38.71 Minnesota $38.25 New Jersey $37.98 Alaska $37.65 Hawaii $37.64 Oregon $36.58 Virginia $36.08 Rhode Island $36.01 Maryland $35.86 New Hampshire $35.55 Utah $35.18 Vermont $35.18 Illinois $35.02 Arizona $34.68 Texas $34.49 Florida $34.38 Wisconsin $34.26 North Dakota $34.18 Georgia $34.04 Idaho $34.03 North Carolina $33.59 Michigan $33.31 Ohio $33.24 Nebraska $32.77 Montana $32.73 Pennsylvania $32.66 Delaware $32.54 Missouri $32.45 Maine $32.22 Indiana $32.07 South Carolina $32.05 Nevada $31.72 Wyoming $31.59 Kansas $31.51 Alabama $31.24 South Dakota $31.16 Iowa $30.94 Tennessee $30.75 Oklahoma $30.65 Kentucky $30.18 Arkansas $29.95 West Virginia $29.86 New Mexico $29.19 Louisiana $29.17 Mississippi $28.25

At the other end of the spectrum are Mississippi ($28.25) and Louisiana ($29.17)—the only two states with average wages below $30 per hour.

Northeastern states dominate the upper end of the scale, with Connecticut and New York joining Massachusetts above the $38/hour mark. In contrast, much of the South and Midwest sits closer to or below the national median. For example, Iowa ($30.94) and Indiana ($32.07) reflect more modest earnings common in the region.

When compared, the earnings gap between the highest (DC) and lowest (Mississippi) is more than $24 per hour. The federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 per hour for workers covered by the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), though many states have set their own, often higher, minimum wage rates.

If you enjoyed this map, check out this map on Voronoi about the income needed to buy a home in every U.S. state.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 19:30

Will Nuclear Fusion Soon Be The "Norm?"

Authored by Duggan Flanakin via RealClearEnergy,

The dream of humanity to imitate the forces that created their habitat has been alive for at least as far back as the time when humans with a single language decided to build a city with a tower that reached the heavens. For such a people, “nothing they plan will be impossible to them,” it is recorded.

For at least the same time frame, humanity has sought comfort through technology. While primitive heat producers like coal and wood are still used today, the discovery that petroleum, natural gas, and even moving water could generate a newly discovered phenomenon known as “electricity” transformed the industrial revolution into the modern era.

Not until the 1930s did German scientists build on Enrico Fermi’s discovery that neutrons could split atoms to recognize that splitting atoms would release significant energy – energy that could be used for both bombs and electricity generation. By the 1950s, scientists began building nuclear fission-based power plants that today provide about a tenth of the world’s electricity.

Scientists and engineers also began to envision the potential of nuclear fusion -- the reaction of light atomic nuclei powers the sun and the stars. Since that time, they have worked feverishly, but with little success, to replicate this energy-rich reaction using deuterium and tritium.

One group of scientists and engineers decided to try an alternative approach.

Founded in 1998, California-based TAE Technologies has been developing a reactor that runs on proton-boron aneutronic fusion – that is, a fusion reaction that fuses a hydrogen nucleus with non-radioactive boron-11 instead of fusing hydrogen isotopes of deuterium and tritium. Their goal is to develop commercial fusion power with the cleanest-possible environmental profile.

All efforts at fusion require chambers that can withstand temperatures of millions of degrees Celsius and immense pressure that are needed to fuse two isotopes together. To accomplish this requires huge amounts of energy – and until recently, more energy than the fusion produced.

Most fusion researchers, including those building the ITER project being built in France, rely on a donut-shaped tokamak reactor chamber, in which a stream of plasma must be held away from its walls by electromagnets for any energy to be produced. The tokamak design uses a toroidal magnetic field to contain the hydrogen plasma and keep it hot enough to ignite fusion.

Sadly, as with ITER, project costs have soared and timeframes have fallen by the wayside despite occasional breakthroughs. Over decades, tokamak designs became gigantic, with huge superconducting magnetic coils to generate containment fields; they also had huge, complex electromagnetic heating systems.

Spurred by the failures of wind and solar to fully satisfy the desire for “clean energy,” governments and private investors began investing heavily into fission and fusion projects. Oak Ridge, Tennessee, has tapped into a $60 million state fund intended to bolster both fission and fusion energy in atomic energy’s American birthplace.

New research at the University of Texas, in conjunction with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Type One Energy Group, uses symmetry theory to help engineers design magnetic confinement systems to reduce plasma leakage from tokamak magnetic fields.

The old method used for a stellarator reactor relied on perturbation theory. The new method, which relies on symmetry theory, is a game changer. It can also be used to identify holes in the tokamak magnetic field through which runaway electrons push through their surrounding walls and greatly reduce energy output.

The TAE Technology reactor is entirely different than any of the tokamak or stellarator fusion chambers.  In 2017, the company introduced its fifth-generation reactor, named Norman, which was designed to keep plasma stable at 30 million C. Five years later the machine had proven capable of sustaining stable plasma at more than 75 million C.

That success enabled TAE to secure sufficient funding for its sixth-generation Copernicus reactor and to envision the birth of its commercial-ready Da Vinci reactor. But in between, TAE developed Norm.

Norm uses a different type of fusion reaction and a new reactor design that exclusively produces plasma using neutral beam injections. The TAE design dumps the toroidal field in favor of a linear magnetic field that is based on the “field-reversed configuration” (FRC) principle, a simpler, more efficient way to build a commercial reactor.

Instead of massive magnetic coils, FRC makes the plasma produce its own magnetic containment field. The process involves accelerating high-energy hydrogen ions and giving them a neutral charge, then injecting them as a beam into the plasma. That causes the beams to be re-ionized as the collision energy heats the plasma to set up internal toroidal currents.

Norm’s neutral beam injection system has cut the size, complexity, and cost, compared to that of Norman, by up to 50%. But not only is an FRC reactor smaller and less expensive to manufacture and operate, says TAE, it can also produce up to 100 times more fusion power output than a tokamak -- based on the same magnetic field strength and plasma volume.

The FRC reactor also can run on proton-boron aneutronic fusion, which, instead of producing a neutron it produces three alpha particles plus a lot of energy. The fewer neutrons also do less damage to the reactor; the energy being released as charged particles is easier to harness. Less shielding is required, and, perhaps best of all, boron-11 is relatively abundant and not radioactive.

So, while “Norm” may not be the final step in developing commercial fusion energy, TAE’s hope is that fusion energy will the “norm” as early as the mid-1930s. FRC technology has materially de-risked Copernicus, according to TAE CEO Michi Binderbauer.

If Norm is as advertised, it will accelerate the pathway to commercial hydrogen-boron fusion – a safe, clean, and virtually limitless energy source.

But is humanity ready for free energy to be the “norm?”

Duggan Flanakin is a senior policy analyst at the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow who writes on a wide variety of public policy issues.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 19:05