How America's Poverty Rates Differ By Race

The U.S. poverty rate stands at 12%, affecting about 41 million people across the country. At the state level, this rate ranges from 7% to 18%, depending on local economic conditions. But how does poverty differ when examined through the lens of racial demographics?

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, visualizes the percentage and number of Americans living below the poverty threshold, categorized by race, based on data from the American Community Survey 2022 conducted by the Census Bureau. It focuses on respondents who selected a single race.

ℹ️ The Census Bureau sets poverty thresholds based on family size and composition. For families with incomes below these thresholds, every individual in the family is considered in poverty.

Racial Disparities in Poverty

The data reveals distinct differences in poverty rates among racial groups, reflecting the complex social and economic dynamics that have evolved over generations.

*Hispanic/Latino populations usually select “other race” in census surveys. Figures rounded.

While poverty exists across all racial groups, there are some significant variations in both the rates and total numbers. These disparities reflect a combination of historical factors, structural inequalities, and ongoing challenges unique to different communities.

Native and Black Americans Face Higher Poverty Rates

Both Native Americans and Black Americans have the highest poverty rates, with about one in five individuals from these groups living below the poverty line. These groups are considered “overrepresented” in poverty statistics, meaning their share in poverty exceeds their proportion of the total U.S. population.

Long-standing issues have created cycles of poverty that, despite some progress, remain challenging to overcome in the face of ongoing systemic inequalities.

Other racial groups also grapple with poverty as well. There are 19.5 million white Americans below the poverty line. Although the rate is lower, about one-in-ten, the absolute number of people below the poverty threshold is the largest of all groups.

The U.S. also falls behind its peers when it comes to government support to help socio-economic mobility. Check out Hours of Work Needed to Escape Poverty to see how it measures up against other high income economies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 10:05

Kamala Harris Has A Major Problem With Male Voters After Years Of Democrat Castration

It's no secret that men aren't fans of Kamala Harris - and the Democrat party is in full panic mode over it.

Photo John Locher/AP

Look no further than their recent cringe-fest commercials, Tim Walz awkwardly trying to load a shotgun with his balls, and Barack Obama lecturing black men for their lack of support.

They've even resorted to oversampling women in polls to achieve the desired result. And who could forget Hillary Clinton suggesting that women who voted for Trump only did so because their husbands pressured them.

This will be an election of the sexes, by the sexes: men dislike Kamala more than women dislike Trump

From latest NYT/Sienna poll pic.twitter.com/jw0bMQvuf7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2024

This weekend, New York Times opinion podcaster Lulu Garcia-Navarro's reaction to JD Vance encapsulated the situation.

When asked whether expelling illegal immigrants would exacerbate the housing crisis due to a lack of construction labor, Vance suggested that "You could re-engage men to enter the labor market."

Garcia-Navarro was taken aback - clearly unable to grasp the notion that modern men would want to fill those positions.

Watch:

NYT reporter Lulu Garcia-Navarro sits in silence as JD Vance educates her on the labor force participation rate relating to illegal immigration.

Garcia-Navarro tried arguing that illegal immigrants can't be deported because America needs them for jobs.

She pointed to the… pic.twitter.com/SiNwyldSwR

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 12, 2024

Breaking it down in a viral post on X is John Konrad, CEO of maritime news website gCaptain.

"Listen to her shock—her disbelief. She doesn’t get it. She thinks men wouldn’t want to work in construction, that we’d rather sit in cushy office jobs, sipping $6 lattes in front of Zoom calls," Konrad says of Garcia-Navarro.

He then lays out one of the major problems with men building things in America - red tape, which Democrats apply liberally to anything they can't directly control.

Why not build ships here? Because our shipyards are buried in OSHA regulations, HR policies, union rules—everything moves at a snail’s pace. I don’t want to build slowly with tons of paperwork and red tape—I want to BUILD.

They don’t get it. They don’t see how hard it is to build in this country while making progress, earning a decent living, and having freedom. In South Korea, I had all three, but it wasn’t home.

I could get a shipyard job here but I’d make half what I made in South Korea with four times the paperwork and it would take years to build one ship. No thanks.

Lulu is shocked I’d give up my “thinking job.” For construction. Sure, I LOVE my  job now—but I’d throw it all away to build again. To construct.

It’s like the movie Office Space. My wife said it’s a “guy movie,” and she’s right. Most people think it’s just an office comedy - or think the stapler guy “won” because he’s now rich. But to guys - real men- it’s a hero’s story. The main character leaves it all behind… and ends up working construction! That’s the happy ending.

Listen to her voice. Hear the contempt: “They’d work construction?”

YES, I WOULD, LULU.

And I wouldn’t just build condos. Turn us loose, and we’d build grand ships, towering bridges, and homes with character and strength.

American men are the best builders in the world. But we’re shackled by HR, red tape, DEI, lawyers and endless regulations. All the bullshit the NYTimes constantly advocates for.

We are sick of it. We are sick of the Times. We are sick of you Lulu. Sick of you telling us what we want.

We want to build… and not build for ourselves but build great things for YOU. Yes YOU Lulu. Great things for women and men and children of all colors and religions and backgrounds. Big great things that advance all of us together.

That’s why we look up to @elonmusk
—he’s out there building rockets and robots.

ROCKETSHIPS AND  ROBOTS!

Meanwhile, it isn't just men...

I’m hearing the same thing. In fact, the down ballot candidates are refusing to be present when Harris holds a rally in their state. They are calling her Toxic she’s demanding things that normally would of been asked of them.

— Gianni POV (@giannipov) October 13, 2024

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 09:25

Liberals Are Losing Their Minds Over Elon Musk

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, Elton John publicly renounced the Rocket Man - no, not the 1972 song, but Elon Musk, whom he called an “a**hole” in an awards ceremony.

Sir Elton, 77, is only the latest among celebrities and pundits to denounce Musk for his support of former president Donald Trump and his opposition to censorship. Musk-mania is so overwhelming that some are calling for his arrest, deportation and debarment from federal contracts.

This week, the California Coastal Commission rejected a request from the Air Force for additional launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base. It is not because the military agency did not need the launches. It was not because the nation and the community would not benefit from them. Rather, it was reportedly because, according to one commissioner, Musk has “aggressively injected himself into the presidential race.”

By a 6-4 vote, the California Coastal Commission rejected the military’s plan to let SpaceX launch up to 50 rockets per year from the base in Santa Barbara County.

Musk’s SpaceX is becoming a critical part of national security programs. It will even be launching a rescue mission for two astronauts stranded in space. The advances of SpaceX under Musk are legendary. The Air Force wanted to waive the requirement for separate permits for SpaceX in carrying out these critical missions.

To the disappointment of many, SpaceX is now valued at over $200 billion and just signed a new $1 billion contract with NASA. Yet neither the national security value nor the demands for SpaceX services appear to hold much interest for officials like Commissioner Gretchen Newsom (no relation to California’s governor, Gavin Newsom): “Elon Musk is hopping about the country, spewing and tweeting political falsehoods and attacking FEMA while claiming his desire to help the hurricane victims with free Starlink access to the internet.”

Newsom is the former political director for the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 569. It did not seem to matter to her that increased launches meant more work for electrical workers and others. Rather, it’s all about politics.

Commission Chair Caryl Hart added “here we’re dealing with a company, the head of which has aggressively injected himself into the presidential race and he’s managed a company in a way that was just described by Commissioner Newsom that I find to be very disturbing.”

In my book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I discuss how Musk became persona non grata when he bought Twitter and announced that he was dismantling the company’s massive censorship apparatus.

He then outraged many on the left by releasing the Twitter Files, showing the extensive coordination of the company with the government in a censorship system described by a federal court as “Orwellian.”

After the purchase, former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton called upon Europeans to force Musk to censor her fellow Americans under the notorious Digital Services Act. Clinton has even suggested the arrest of those responsible for views that she considers disinformation.

Silicon Valley investor Roger McNamee called for Musk’s arrest and said that, as a condition of getting government contracts, officials should “require him to moderate his speech in the interest of national security.”

Former Clinton Secretary of Labor Robert Reich wants Musk arrested for simply refusing to censor other people.

Former MSNBC host Keith Olbermann called for Musk to be deported and all federal contracts cancelled with this company. As with many in the “Save Democracy” movement, Olbermann was unconcerned with the denial of free speech or constitutional protections. “If we can’t do that by conventional means, President Biden, you have presidential immunity. Get Elon Musk the F out of our country and do it now.”

Of course, none of these figures are even slightly bothered about other business leaders with political opinions, so long as, like McNamee, they are supporting Harris or at least denouncing Trump. Musk has failed to yield to a movement infamous for cancel campaigns and coercion. The usual alliance of media, academia, government and corporate forces hit Musk, his companies and even advertisers on X.

Other corporate officials collapsed like a house of cards to demands for censorship — see, for example, Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg. Musk, in contrast, responded by courageously releasing the Twitter Files and exposing the largest censorship system in our history.

That is why I describe Musk as arguably the single most important figure in this generation in defense of free speech. The intense hatred for Musk is due to the fact that he was the immovable object in the path of their formerly unstoppable force.

The left will now kill jobs, cancel national security programs and gut the Constitution in its unrelenting campaign to get Musk. His very existence undermines the power of the anti-free speech movement. In a culture of groupthink, Musk is viewed as a type of free-thought contagion that must be eliminated.

Their frustration became anger, which became rage. As Elton John put it in “Rocket Man,” he was supposed to be “burning out his fuse up here alone.”

Yet, here he remains.

George Bernard Shaw once said “a reasonable man adjusts himself to the world. An unreasonable man expects the world to adjust itself to him. Therefore, all progress is made by unreasonable people.”

With all of his idiosyncrasies and eccentricities, Elon Musk just might be that brilliantly unreasonable person.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 08:25

US Futures Rise On Columbus Day In Push For 46th Record High Of 2024

US bonds may be closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but stocks are open and merrily melting up on pace for their 46th record high of 2024. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are higher by around 0.2% and trading above Friday’s all time high while Nasdaq 100 futs rise 0.2% with NVDA, AAPL, and GOOG leading in MegaCap Tech as investors gear up for the latest round of corporate earnings and turn increasingly turn their focus toward the US election where a pro-market Trump victory looks more likely by the day. In China, the CSI 300 Index closer ~2% higher after a choppy session where markets pumped, then dumped, then rebounded once the National Team stepped in as traders digested the latest disappointing pledges from Beijing over the weekend to support the economy. Europe's Estoxx 50 is flat. US cash bond markets are closed today; the Bloomberg Dollar index is higher. Commodities are mixed: oil prices are -2.3% lower, base metals are higher, and precious metals show mixed movements. This week, we will have a busy earnings calendar, along with Retail Sales release on Thursday.

In premarket trading, cryptocurrency-linked stocks were lifted by gains in Bitcoin as traders bet Beijing’s latest stimulus efforts would keep speculators chasing crypto rather than Chinese stocks. MicroStrategy led gains in cryptocurrency-linked companies. Boeing fell again as the beleaguered planemaker plans to cut its global workforce by about 10% and announced $5 billion in charges. SentinelOne Inc. shares rose 4.2% as Piper Sandler upgraded the cybersecurity software company saying current estimates of its market share gains are too low. Meanwhile, US-listed casino stocks tumbled after the election of a new Macau leader, who has warned against the influence of the gambling industry in the city. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• B. Riley rises 20% after the embattled broker-dealer and investment firm reached a deal with funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management LP for a partnership in Great American Holdings.
• Boeing slips 2% as the beleaguered planemaker plans to cut its global workforce by about 10% and announced $5 billion in charges across its commercial airplanes and defense businesses.
• Caterpillar drops 2% after being downgraded to underweight by Morgan Stanley as analysts view construction firms cautiously, flagging a disconnect between fundamentals and share price.
• FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment rises 4% as analysts mostly played down the likelihood of heavy new taxes for the industry amid a report on Friday that the UK is considering a tax of up to £3 billion on the gambling sector.
• Longboard Pharmaceuticals gains 50% after agreeing to be acquired by Danish pharmaceutical company H. Lundbeck A/S in a deal with an equity value of $2.6 billion.

A newly accommodative Federal Reserve is providing fresh fodder for bulls — but they’re also fighting against lofty valuations. The S&P 500’s 20% gain through September has been its strongest performance for the first nine months of a year since 1997, according to National Bank of Canada economists including Stefane Marion. That’s pushed earnings-based valuations pushed to rich levels across industries.

“It remains uncertain whether the market will finish the year as strongly as it began and whether this easing cycle will provide substantial momentum for equities,” the economists wrote in a note to clients. “The current easing cycle is unfolding in an environment of unusually high valuations.”

Meanwhile, with just weeks to go until the election showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, odds are increasing shifting in favor of the latter but it’s “still too close to call,” according to Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar. “A Trump victory would likely be positive for risk sentiment, though more for US assets at the expense of Europe and rest of the world,” Kumar said. “In our view, the environment remains broadly positive for risky assets.”

Corporate earnings are the next test. Results from Citi, Goldman and Bank of America are due Tuesday, where the banks will provide an early verdict on the impact of interest rate cuts on their bottom lines. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of New York Mellon all topped estimates Friday. In Europe, profits are anticipated to come in lower due to anemic economic growth and a stunted recovery in China, which is likely to drag down luxury goods makers like LVMH.

“The season has set off on the right foot, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reporting better-than-expected earnings,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. “Consumer resilience is shining through and that’s set the bar high.”

And speaking of Europe, stocks are flat with the Stoxx 600 little changed on the day with consumer products and travel & leisure shares the worst laggards, while technology and telecommunications stocks fared best ahead of the European Central Bank decision on Thursday, where another rate cut now seems likely. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• UK gambling stocks slumped on Monday following a report that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may be weighing proposals to increase taxes on the industry by as much as £3 billion ($3.9 billion).
• Adidas advances as much as 2.3% after both TD Cowen and UBS raised their price targets on the sportswear company ahead of its third-quarter results on October 29
• Bunzl shares rise as much as 2.3% after the distributor was upgraded by analysts at JP Morgan, which have lifted their medium-term underlying margin forecasts to reflect greater confidence in the firm’s positive trajectory
• Ashmore gains as much as 13%, the most since Nov. 2022, after the emerging markets specialist fund house delivered a first-quarter performance that Morgan Stanley says shows an “improving path”
• TI Fluid Systems soars as much as 22%, reaching their highest level in more than two years, after management at the UK automotive components supplier said they would be “minded to recommend” the latest takeover offer from ABC Technologies if it is made firm
• BASF shares drop as much as 1.5% after UBS cuts its recommendation on the German chemicals firm to neutral from buy, saying that the next 12 months are likely to be challenging amid slowing global economic growth
• Munters shares fall as much as 8.5% after Carnegie downraded on the Swedish industrial air and ventilation firm to sell from hold, noting that the lack of large order announcements in the key data center segment in 3Q represents a downside risk to sales estimates
• Aker BP shares slip as much as 1.5% after the Norwegian oil company revealed a revenue miss, driven by production falling below the contracted volumes
• Ipsen shares drop as much as 2.4% after the pharmaceutical company was downgraded by analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux, citing a more cautious outlook
• Bossard shares drop as much as 9.2% after the Swiss industrial company’s outlook disappointed analysts who were expecting a recovery in the market. They see lower consensus estimates as a result
• Pagegroup shares drop as much as 0.9% after the recruitment company conceded market conditions remain challenging as it reported a sharp drop in profit during the latest quarter

Asian equities reversed early losses to eke out small gains after Chinese stocks rebounded on Beijing’s commitment to shore up the economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan index rose as much as 0.4%, erasing an earlier drop of as much as 0.8%. Financial and technology shares were among the top gainers. Stocks also rose in South Korea, Taiwan and Australia. Markets in Japan and Thailand were closed for a holiday.

Mainland Chinese stocks closed higher after a volatile session as investors await more details on fiscal measures. Gauges in Hong Kong pared declines. Despite promises of more support for the struggling property sector and hinting at greater government borrowing, a briefing by China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an on the weekend didn’t produce the headline dollar figure for fresh fiscal stimulus that the markets had sought. Still, after an initial swoon, China’s main CSI 300 Index finished 1.9% higher in volatile trading Monday, after capping its worst week since late July as Beijing’s latest efforts to jumpstart growth disappoint those seeking more details on incentives. That said, don't expect the bounce to last.

“While some investors may be disappointed, it seems to us that the policy pivot has occurred, we should see continued momentum in the coming weeks,” BofA Securities’ strategist Winnie Wu wrote in a note. “Be long-term greedy, short-term cautious” on China equities, she said.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The Norwegian krone is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the greenback.

In rates, treasury futures are marginally lower on the day, following losses seen in core European rates led by long-end end gilts, where UK 30-year yields are cheaper by 3bp on the day. Cash Treasuries trading is closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, the session does include scheduled Fed speakers from both Kashkari and Waller. No US data is scheduled. Treasury 10-year note futures are lower by around 10 ticks on the day, trading on lows at 111-29+ and edging below Friday session lows but remaining inside last week’s trading range. German government bonds are also steady with little economic data to dictate otherwise The France-Germany 10-year yield spread has barely budged despite Fitch putting France on negative outlook on Friday just a day after the government presented its 2025 budget.

In crypto, bitcoin climbed to the highest level in two weeks as investors took disappointment over China as good news for cryptocurrencies which are seen as potential beneficiaries of China stock outflows.

In commodities, oil prices declined, with Brent crude futures falling 2.1% to $77.40 a barrel, and as OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month. Spot gold rose $5 to $2,661/oz, trading at all time highs.

Looking at today's calendar, there are no US events scheduled due to the Columbus Day holiday. This week includes retail sales, industrial production and housing starts. Fed speakers scheduled include Kashkari (9am, 3pm) and Waller (3pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% at 5,870.00
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 521.61
• MXAP little changed at 192.57
• MXAPJ little changed at 614.03
• Nikkei up 0.6% to 39,605.80
• Topix down 0.2% to 2,706.20
• Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 21,092.87
• Shanghai Composite up 2.1% to 3,284.32
• Sensex up 0.8% to 81,995.12
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 8,252.81
• Kospi up 1.0% to 2,623.29
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27%
• Euro little changed at $1.0929
• Brent Futures down 1.6% to $77.78/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,659.77
• US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 103.03

Top Overnight News

• China promises incremental stimulus actions, but finance minister’s press briefing lacks numerical specificity (the government could unveil precise figures later this month after the standing committee meets). WSJ
• China’s inflation undershoots the consensus in Sept, with PPI coming in -2.8% Y/Y (vs. -1.8% in Aug and vs. the Street -2.6%) while the CPI rose 0.4% (down from +0.6% in Aug and vs. the Street +0.6%). FT
• China’s trade numbers for Sept came in below expectations, with exports rising 2.4% Y/Y (vs. the Street +6%) and imports inching higher by +0.3% (vs. the Street +0.8%). China auto sales rise 4.5% Y/Y in Sept, reversing 5 months of declines, thanks to aggressive pricing and government stimulus initiatives. SCMP / WSJ
• The Eurozone’s weak economic growth and sluggish consumer price rises have raised concerns that the European Central Bank may be facing the threat of too little rather than too much inflation, economists have warned. Monetary policymakers will meet this Thursday and are widely expected to reduce rates. Having previously not anticipated a cut until December, investors now view a quarter-point reduction to 3.25 per cent as a given. FT
• US to send a THAAD missile defense system to Israel, along w/100 American troops to operate it, to help defend the country. NYT
• Harris and Trump are tied nationally at 48% according to a fresh NBC poll (this represents a sharp rebound for Trump, who was down 5 points in the last NBC reading). NBC
• A top economic adviser to Donald Trump dismissed concerns that the former president would weaken the dollar or cut trade if re-elected, insisting he wants the US to remain the world’s reserve currency and uses tariffs as a negotiating tactic. The comments from Scott Bessent, a 62-year-old hedge fund manager who made a windfall betting on the Japanese yen and British pound for George Soros, are relevant because he has emerged as a top Trump adviser on the economy and finance in recent years. FT
• Boeing after the Fri close preannounced a shortfall on Q3 EPS/revenue (op. cash flow wasn’t as bad as feared) and the company said it would cut its workforce by 10%. WSJ
• Apple developers aren’t building apps for the Vision Pro at a rapid rate, which is hurting the device’s utility and weighing on sales. WSJ
• US Energy Secretary Granholm said about 75% of power was restored across Florida and the vast majority of power in Florida is expected to be restored by the end of Tuesday.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly higher but with the upside capped amid the Japanese holiday closure, soft Chinese inflation and lack of China stimulus details, while participants await Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was underpinned amid strength in mining stocks despite a pullback in commodity prices. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed in which the former initially slipped back beneath the 21,000 level with notable weakness in tech and consumer stocks after the Chinese Ministry of Finance's press briefing omitted an actual stimulus size. Conversely, the mainland ultimately shrugged off the lack of stimulus details and softer inflation data, while other government departments also pledged support efforts, picking up further throughout the session.

Top Asian News

• Golden Credit (China state-owned rating agency) expects the incremental size of the lastest set of fiscal policy to be no less than CNY 4tln in size, which will lift Q4 GDP growth above 5.0%.
• China’s Finance Minister Lan Foan said local governments have CNY 2.3tln in local funds to spend in the last three months of the year which includes debt quotas and unused funds. Lan stated that the central government has relatively large room to issue debt and increase the budget deficit, while they will better use policy measures to support the economy. Furthermore, they will implement fiscal and tax reforms in a step-by-step way and will roll out some reforms over 2024 and 2025 but did not announce the size of the stimulus.
• China’s Vice Finance Minister said they will take measures to promote stability in the property market, while they will expand the scope of usage for local government debt and will complete the issuance of CNY 1tln in special treasury bonds in 2024. Furthermore, the official said it is necessary to support large state banks to increase first-tier core capital and will support large banks’ operations and profitability to support the economy.
• China's MIIT said China will launch another batch of specific initiatives in Q4 to promote consumption and expand domestic demand and noted there are currently about 36,000 projects under construction in the industrial field which started during the year and are expected to pull investment of more than CNY 11tln in the next three years. It was also reported that China's Industrial Ministry official said China will roll out supportive measures for equipment upgrades and consumer trade-ins in Q4, while China's financial regulator official said they will lower financing costs of small and mid-sized enterprises.
• China's upcoming local government hidden debt swap could be over CNY 2.2tln, according to Xinhua citing a state think tank.
• China’s MOFCOM said there are still major differences between both sides in China-EU tariff negotiations and a mutually acceptable solution has not been reached so far, while the Chinese side officially invited the European side to send a technical team to China ASAP to continue face-to-face negotiations. Furthermore, MOFCOM said Chinese companies have authorised the China Chamber of Commerce for Machinery and Electronics to propose a price commitment plan that represents the overall position of the industry, and it warned against the European side conducting separate price commitment negotiations with some companies.
• China’s MOFCOM said Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party has not taken any practical measures to lift trade restrictions on the mainland, while it added relevant departments are studying further measures based on the conclusions of the ministry’s investigation into trade barriers by Taiwan against the mainland.
• Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained the width, centre and slope of the SGD NEER policy band, as expected. MAS said Singapore's economy is currently forecast to expand at close to its potential rate and it expects GDP growth to come in around the upper end of the 2–3% forecast range for the year. MAS said core inflation has stepped down and is anticipated to decline further to around 2% by the end of 2024, while based on its outlook, the MAS assesses that the monetary policy settings are for now still consistent with medium-term price stability.
• Golden Credit (China state-owned rating agency) expects the incremental size of the lastest set of fiscal policy to be no less than CNY 4tln in size, which will lift Q4 GDP growth above 5.0%.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (U/C) began the session on a modestly firmer footing, but now display a more mixed picture. Indices dipped off best levels following softer-than-expected trade data from China, with particular weakness in Chinese exports. European sectors are mixed. Travel & Leisure underperforms amid news that the UK is considering a tax raid on gambling firms, whilst Consumer Products is weighed on by Luxury names after China reported weak inflation metrics. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1% NQ +0.1% RTY +0.2%) are modestly mixed, taking a breather from the strong session seen on Friday.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer is to ask the competition watchdog to soften its approach as he vows to rip out bureaucracy to make the UK more attractive for investments, according to FT.
• UK Business and Trade Secretary Reynolds added to speculation that the government is planning to increase payroll taxes for businesses by raising their national insurance contributions as he insisted that the Labour government’s manifesto had only promised not to hike the contributions for employees, according to an interview with Sky News cited by Bloomberg.
• Fitch Ratings has downgraded France’s outlook to negative from stable, while maintaining France's credit rating at "AA-", citing increased fiscal deficits and political risks; the agency expects government debt to rise to 118.5% of GDP by 2028, following the announcement of the 2025 budget.
• German Economy Ministry in monthly report says current economic indicators point to continued weakness in the German economy in the past quarter.

FX

• DXY is flat and trading within a very tight 102.96-103.10 range; the high for today is a little shy of its 100 DMA at 103.23. The docket for today is fairly thin, with only Fed’s Kashkari and Waller due to speak.
• EUR is modestly lower and sits in a 1.0916-34 range, in what has been a catalyst-thin session thus far; markets digest Fitch’s recent outlook change on France, moving it to negative from stable, whilst maintaining its AA- rating.
• GBP is flat vs the Dollar given the lack of UK-specific newsflow, but as traders remain very mindful of the looming UK Budget on October 30th.
• JPY is slightly softer and trading within a 149.09-46 range. Price action overnight was fairly rangebound, but USD/JPY did edge higher into the European morning, but with no clear catalyst.
• The Antipodeans are the worst G10 performers thus far, largely attributed to the weak Chinese inflation metrics and after the lack of stimulus details from China’s MoF on Saturday.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0723 vs exp. 7.0722 (prev. 7.0731).

Fixed Income

• USTs are holding above 112-00, in familiar and very tight ranges, given the lack of cash trade on account of Columbus Day. The main update thus far was the weekend unveiling of China stimulus; however, the somewhat limited details meant the market reaction was fairly muted initially
• Bunds are firmer but with European specifics light so far and action somewhat thinner than normal owing to the lack of Japanese trade and no US cash trade due to Columbus Day. Bunds at the mid-point of a relatively slim 133.17-41 band, which is entirely within Friday’s 132.92-133.57 range.
• OATs are in focus but trading broadly in-line with Bunds after Fitch cut its outlook on France following the draft unveiling of the 2025 budget. Despite this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread remains steady around 76 bps, in familiar ranges.
• Gilts are flat but with specifics light as we await the commencement of the UK’s investment summit ahead of the end-October budget.

Commodities

• Crude is in the red after coming under pressure in APAC trade from the disappointing Chinese inflation data and lack of specifics from the MOF update. Into the European morning, the complex picked up off worst levels but has since slipped back towards session lows. Brent'Dec currently sits around USD 77.20/bbl.
• Spot gold is incrementally firmer, benefitting from the initially somewhat muted reaction to China’s latest stimulus efforts. XAU came off best levels of USD 2667/oz as mainland China reacted more strongly to the efforts.
• Base metals are under pressure, despite the latest China stimulus efforts and subsequent upgrades to China’s GDP view by some desks. Efforts which have been overshadowed by the lack of detail from the MOF on the weekend and since by disappointing inflation and trade data from the region.
• OPEC MOMR to be released at 12:25BST/07:25ET.

Geopolitics - Middle East

• US President Biden said he is sending THAAD missile defence to defend Israel, according to WSJ.
• US Secretary of Defence Austin expressed deep concern over reports that Israeli forces fired on UN peacekeeping positions in Lebanon and called for the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese armed forces during a call with Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu urged UN Secretary-General Guterres to remove UNIFIL forces from combat areas in Lebanon, while it was also reported that Israel’s Foreign Minister declared UN chief Guterres persona non grata over his Iran stance, according to Reuters.
• Israel’s military said an IDF tank that was trying to evacuate injured soldiers backed several meters into a UNIFIL post in southern Lebanon and once enemy fire had stopped and following the evacuation of injured soldiers, the tank left the post. Furthermore, the Israeli military said no danger was posed to UNIFIL soldiers by IDF activity throughout the entire incident, according to Reuters.
• UN spokesperson said UNIFIL peacekeepers in Lebanon remain in all positions and UNIFIL is taking all possible measures to ensure the protection of its peacekeepers, while the spokesperson added that the UN Secretary-General called on all parties including the Israeli military to refrain from any actions that put peacekeepers at risk, according to Reuters.
• Israel’s military ordered the residents of 22 villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali River, while the Israeli military declared areas around a number of towns in northern Israel as closed to the public, according to Reuters. Furthermore, the Israeli army said Hezbollah fired 25 rockets from nearby positions of UNIFIL forces towards IDF positions and Israeli towns.
• Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it attacked a Golani Brigade camp in northern Israel with a swarm of drones which was reported to have injured more than 60 people and it warned Israeli settlers against staying near army bases in northern Israel until further notice, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that Hezbollah said it shelled with rockets enemy forces in the settlement of Al-Manara for a fifth time.
• Hezbollah promises Israel that what it witnessed in southern Haifa is nothing compared to what awaits it if it decides to continue its aggression against their people, according to AFP News Agency.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister commented on X that they have no red lines in defending their people and interests.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards aerospace commander Hajizadeh said Tehran is ready to respond to any misstep by Israel, according to Tasnim.
• French President Macron urged Iranian President Pezeshkian to support a general de-escalation in the Middle East during a conversation, while Macron stressed in another discussion with Lebanon’s caretaker PM Mikati the ‘absolute necessity’ to obtain a ceasefire without further delay, according to the Presidential Office.
• Turkish President Erdogan said Israel is a concrete threat to regional and global peace, while he said it is essential for Russia, Iran and Syria to take effective measures when asked about Israel’s strike on Damascus.
• Pentagon said US forces conducted a series of strikes against multiple Islamic State camps in Syria.

Geopolitics - Other

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces tried to push back Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Kursk region, while he added that Ukraine is holding out positions.
• Ukraine’s air force said on Sunday morning that Russia launched 68 drones and four missiles that targeted Ukraine.
• Russian and Chinese warships conducted joint drills to repel a missile attack in the Pacific.
• Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said a Chinese aircraft carrier group entered the Bashi channel on Sunday and will probably be operating in the western Pacific, while it was later reported that China's military announced the PLA Eastern Theatre Command will dispatch its troops from the army, navy, air force, and rocket force to conduct joint military drills code-named “Joint Sword-2024B” in the Taiwan Strait and areas around Taiwan.
• Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said it strongly condemns China’s irrational and provocative act, as well as announced that it has dispatched forces to respond to China's drills. It later updated that aircraft and ships have been responding to the hostile situation in accordance with the rules of engagement and will not escalate conflict in their response.
• US President Biden's administration official said they are monitoring the PLA exercise and urge the PRC to avoid any further actions that may jeopardize peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, while it added there is no justification for military exercises and pressure campaigns in response to a routine annual speech.
• North Korea said it ordered artillery corps near the border to fully prepare to shoot after it threatened a "horrible disaster" over the alleged flight of drones over its capital, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• Nothing scheduled

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This week kicks off with a partial US holiday (Columbus Day) today where bond markets will be closed but with equity markets remaining open. The main news over the weekend has been from China where the highly anticipated Ministry of Finance press conference on Saturday was light on specifics of immediate stimulus measures but provided strong forward commitment and the announcement of a large-scale local government debt swap that exceeded our economists' expectations, with them suggesting it could mark a multi-year turning point in China's fiscal policy framework. They have raised their 2024 GDP forecast to 4.9% (from 4.7%), based on already announced measures and are expecting more concrete measures to now appear at the upcoming NPCSC in late October.

Overnight Chinese markets opened firm, fell back just below zero, but are now back close to their opening highs. Currently, the Shanghai Composite is up by +1.66%. Oil is -1.2% lower after the China briefing but that could be as much due to taking out some weekend geopolitical risk premium with no Israeli retaliation seen as yet. Elsewhere, the KOSPI has gained +1.02% and the S&P/ASX 200 is up by +0.42%. However, the Hang Seng is -0.42% lower. S&P 500 (-0.06%) and NASDAQ (-0.21%) futures are also on the softer side. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.

Also over the weekend, data revealed that China’s September CPI rose by +0.4% year-on-year, the slowest in three months, compared to a +0.6% rise in August and below market expectations of a +0.6% increase. PPI fell by -2.8% year-on-year, the fastest decline in six months, compared to a -1.8% drop in the previous month and below the expected -2.6% decline. So weaker prices than expected all round, but with the subsequent stimulus announcement markets should be comfortable excusing recent data for now.

In terms of this week, the key events will likely be on Thursday with US retail sales and jobless claims, alongside the latest ECB meeting. Outside of this, US earnings season starts to accelerate after last Friday's unofficial start and there are plenty of central bank speakers to digest as well. Before we dig into these, the other main global highlights this week are the NY Fed 1yr inflation expectations (today), UK employment, German/European ZEW survey, ECB bank lending survey, Eurozone IP and Canadian CPI (tomorrow), UK inflation (Wednesday), US IP and NAHB housing index (Thursday) and US housing starts/building permits, China's monthly data dump (including Q3 GDP, retail sales, IP, and property data), alongside Japanese CPI to round out the week on Friday.

Digging a bit more into that week ahead now, of all the Fedspeak, Waller today may be the most interesting given he's traditionally a hawk and is a voter. In his last outing, Waller suggested that another 50bp reduction in an upcoming meeting was a possibility if the labour market weakened further or if inflation continued to come in softer than expected. Since then the opposite has seemingly occurred so will he revert back to more hawkish form?

Skipping to Thursday, September US retail sales will be a swing factor in putting together final Q3 GDP forecasts but jobless claims could spike a significant amount higher (DB forecast 270k vs. 258k last week) and to 3-year highs due to the latest storm. We were surprised that the market zoned in on the spike last week as much as it did as you have to assume for now that most, if not all, of the increase was storm related. The impact of the storm will also feed into this month's payroll data so there will be a lot of difficulty in assessing employment trends in the next several weeks. Even retail sales might spike up a little this week as storm preparation in Florida may have boosted sales at the end of September.

The highlight of the week in Europe will be the ECB decision on Thursday. Our European economists expect a 25bps rate cut following recent lower-than-expected inflation prints as well as weaker growth (see their full preview here). The central bank will also release its bank lending survey on Tuesday and the survey of professional forecasters on Friday. The lending survey is a good guage to see whether we're past the peak impact of the monetary transmission mechanism. In recent quarterly surveys, lending has improved with future expectations improving too so things have been looking up. Elsewhere in Europe keep an eye for the budget in Italy tomorrow, ahead of the EU deadline. Fitch and S&P are likely to opine on Italy's rating after the close on Friday. The former could influence the latter to some degree. Indeed, late on Friday Fitch placed France on negative outlook after its budget announcement last week saying that "Fiscal policy risks have increased since our last review." Over in Asia, the focus outside of China will be on the Japanese national CPI due on Friday.

In terms of earnings, we'll start to see some momentum with the highlights including key semiconductor firms TSMC (Thursday) and ASML (Wednesday). Otherwise, US bank results will continue to come in with Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs (all tomorrow) the highlights, alongside large cap healthcare names including UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson (both tomorrow) and Abbott (Wednesday). Other notable names include Netflix and Blackstone on Thursday and Procter & Gamble on Friday.

Looking back at last week now, risk assets put in a decent performance and looked through ambiguous data. The S&P 500 ended up advancing +1.11% (+0.61% Friday) and posted a 5th consecutive weekly gain, with Friday seeing its 45th record high of 2024 so far. Banks saw a particularly strong performance after the start of earnings season, with the KBW Bank Index ending the week up +3.98% (+3.04% Friday) at its highest level since April 2022. Europe also saw gains, with the STOXX 600 up +0.66% (+0.55% Friday), but in China the Shanghai Comp fell -3.56% (-2.55% Friday) amidst disappointment at the lack of detail around China’s stimulus.

Whilst equities were mostly advancing, sovereign bonds lost ground in general following on from the post payrolls trend the previous Friday. Inflation risk was also back in the spotlight though, particularly after the US CPI reading was stronger than expected last week. Indeed, the US 2yr inflation swap picked up another +13.9bps last week to 2.48%, its highest level in over three months. In turn, that meant investors slightly dialled back their expectations for rate cuts, with the rate priced in by the Fed’s December 2025 meeting up +4.9bps over the week to 3.34%. So when it came to sovereign bonds themselves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.3bps (+3.8bps Friday) to 4.10%, and those on 10yr bunds were up +5.6bps (+0.9bps Friday) to 2.26%.

Finally, oil prices ended the week modestly higher, although only after paring back their strong gains from earlier in the week. Indeed at one point, Brent crude reached an intraday peak above $81/bbl, but by the close on Friday, it was only up +1.27% (-0.45% Friday) to $79.04/bbl. That came alongside a modest increase in gold prices, which ended up posting a weekly gain of +0.11% thanks to stronger gains towards the end of the week (+1.42% Friday) as inflation risks came back into focus.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 08:18

New Starbucks CEO Signals Cutback On Coffee Deals & Promotions

Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol is ready to move forward with an ambitious turnaround plan for the coffee chain. WSJ reported that the chief executive has "quietly reduced the frenzy of discounts" on menu items. This means the era of special discounts and rewards at the world's biggest coffee chain is ending—say goodbye to those half-off grande Caramel Frappuccinos. 

Like many other fast-food chains (such as MCD), Starbucks boosted menu prices in recent years because of rampant inflation. In recent quarters, the coffee chain and many other quick-serve restaurants have had to introduce meal deals and drink specials in a bid to retain customer market share as low/mid-tier consumers pulled back on spending. 

Here's more about Niccol's move to scale back discounts: 

Starbucks is pivoting away from discounts as Niccol emphasizes the company's hallmarks of selling handcrafted, premium coffee. Starbucks for years eschewed discounting and promotions, but recently stepped up offers through its app as its cafe traffic sagged and customers complained of high prices and long wait times.

...

Starbucks isn't planning to run broad offers during the holiday season, and instead aims to promote seasonal drinks through advertising, the company said during an early-October strategy update for store leaders. -WSJ 

Niccol took over as CEO about a month ago, following his successful tenure as CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill, where he led a major turnaround.

Meanwhile, activist shareholders circled the stock. In August, the company's board terminated Laxman Narasimhan, the previous CEO. It appears Niccol was brought on board to push a turnaround of the coffee chain that has suffered in top markets, including the US and China this year. 

In September, during an internal company forum viewed by WSJ reporters, the CEO said, "The strategy is, simply put, just making a couple of powerful choices, and then we've got to execute like crazy." 

For years, Starbucks has had very little discounting and rewards as it boasted itself as a premium brand. Howard Schultz, the former CEO, previously warned about excessive promotions.

Starbucks' traffic has slowed since last year. The previous CEO, Narasimhan, called the current consumer environment "complex" and "challenging." 

Cyclical macro issues are the root cause of a consumer slowdown. The company's response has been to boost discounts and rewards to boost sales, yet customer traffic has yet to fully return. Perhaps the excessive discounts were diluting the premium brand. It remains to be seen if the new CEO can create a successful turnaround in this challenging environment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 07:45

Visualizing AI's Effect On Industry Margins Over The Next Five Years

Investors have poured billions into AI-related companies, but adoption is moving slowly across American firms.

According to the Census Bureau, just 5% of American businesses have used AI to produce goods and services over the last two weeks, highlighting that market enthusiasm is not yet matching the real economy. Despite this slow progress, AI has the potential to boost productivity across a wide scope of industries, from energy to transportation.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows AI’s effect on industry margins over the next five years, based on analysis from the Bank of America Institute.

How Will AI Impact the Operating Margin of Industries?

To examine AI’s impact on operating margins, analysts looked at roughly 3,400 companies with a combined market cap of about $90 trillion.

As the below table shows, AI could fuel margin expansion in 23 out of 25 industries, with the greatest impact on software and semiconductor companies in the next five years. Driven by rising demand, AI-driven revenues across semiconductor firms could increase by 34% over this period.

Represents the relative change over five years, where 5% indicates an operating margin increase from 20% to 21%.

Meanwhile, the energy and utilities industries could see margin expansion from implementing AI across a variety of use cases, including exploration, pipeline monitoring, and environmental monitoring.

Today, major players like Shell, GE Vernova, and Schneider Electric are launching AI pilot programs to enhance operations throughout the energy value chain.

In the automotive industry, margins are expected to grow as manufacturers adopt AI-driven predictive maintenance systems, which streamline decision-making and detect potential issues early. By one estimate, AI systems could reduce inspection costs by up to 25% and lower maintenance costs by 10% annually.

Overall, AI-enabled cost savings could reach up to $55 billion annually across S&P 500 companies, reflecting the technology’s broad potential to reshape industries through rapid innovation.

To learn more about this topic from a startup perspective, check out this graphic on the number of AI startups by country in 2024.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 05:45

New Fear Campaign Begins Over Bird Flu; Dr. Peter McCullough Warns 'No One Should Consider The Vax'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Dr. Peter McCullough is a renowned cardiologist who has been fighting the government CV19 vax propaganda from the beginning. 

Dr. McCullough is on record saying “The CV19 vaccine did not help a single person.” 

Now, Dr. McCullough is fighting a new false government narrative on the Bird Flu.  They just held the “International Bird Flu Summit” near Washington D.C in early October.  At the same time, they were holding a Bird Flu summit in Arkansas for veterinarians.  So, the evidence says, they are planning on a new pandemic.  Dr. McCullough, who monitored both summits, says,

“This is what we learned.  Bird Flu is spreading around because it actually came out of a lab.  It came out of the USAD research lab in Athens Georgia. . . . Bird Flu has been around for a hundred years, and the current version is very mild.  There have been just over 10,000 animal deaths, yet, they have intentionally culled or killed tens of millions of healthy chickens.”

Dr. McCullough goes on to say, “We have never had a human Bird Flu death in the United States..."

"Bird Flu looks like it’s coming out of research labs.  It’s ‘gain of function’ research.  The Biden Administration has put out legislation in May of 2024 enabling this. 

It’s called ‘Dual Purpose Research.’  They create a virus to get people sick, and then they can try to create a vaccine.  This is all about ginning up fear for more public mass vaccination...

I am fearful of a campaign, whether it be Monkey Pox, Bird Flu, Marburg or disease X, that actually does have people take another wave of genetic messenger RNA vaccines...

We have seen more damage from the Covid vaccines than the illness itself...

The Biden Administration just gave money to Moderna to make a Bird Flu messenger RNA vaccine.  I can tell you it does not look safe, and none of these genetic vaccines look safe.”

Dr. McCullough warns, “No one should consider taking a Bird Flu Vaccine..."

"More people died in the vaccine group than in the placebo group. 

No one should consider this.  We have simple drugs that can handle this . . . such as antivirals, Hydroxychloroquine will cover Bird Flu, and we use iodine nasal sprays and drops. 

The bottom line is nobody should risk a vaccine.”

In closing, Dr. McCullough says, “This is a new authoritarian approach, and the new message now, which was all over media in the last few days, is ‘misinformation.’"

"Don’t trust anybody but the government.  Everybody else is spreading ‘misinformation.’ 

‘Misinformation is a classic propaganda tool by The Third Reich. 

No government official should be using the term ‘misinformation.’”

There is much more in the 28-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he interviews top cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, who is Chief Science Officer of  The Wellness Company, as he warns against getting a deadly Bird Flu vaccine for 10.12.24.

*  *  *

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com, click here

To find out more about The Wellness Company, click here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 05:00

Joker 2 Bombs At Box Office After Raping And Killing Its Own Lead Character

Warner Bros. had a surprise hit in 2019 with the Todd Phillips directed 'Joker' staring Joaquin Phoenix; the movie made over a billion dollars at the box office.  Phillips' idea was to "sneak a real movie" into the superhero genre, and to his credit he succeeded in that plan.  Joker was a wildly popular but very different take on the DC villain's origin story. 

In his second installment of the franchise, Joker: Folie à Deux, Phillips seems to have set out to deconstruct and destroy his own lead character in way that left many audience goers disappointed.  The film grabbed $81 million worldwide at the box office opening weekend (keep in mind that half those revenues go to the theater chains), and it cost over $300 million to make and market.  Compared that to the first film, which made $247 million worldwide opening weekend and cost only $60 million.  Joker 2 has also suffered the largest second week drop in receipts in DC movie history. 

Folie à Deux reverses the entire arc of the first movie.  This time around Arthur Fleck (the Joker) is trapped in an insane asylum after the vengeful murders of the previous film and is embroiled in his own trial.  His rebelliousness has been subdued by medications and he struggles with his alter ego and an abusive prison system.  He has musical fantasies in which he's able to be the Joker again, but the scenes fall flat like most dream sequences in movies where the character wishes he was something he's not.

By the end of the film Arthur fires his attorney and defends himself in court, calling out the asylum and it's terrible treatment of patients.  The psychotic prison guards return the favor by beating our main character and then, apparently, raping him (the rape is implied, not shown).  After the rape, Arthur fleck abandons his Joker image and submits his guilt to the court.  In other words, his rebelliousness was raped right out of him.  

Finally, he is stabbed to death by his own cellmate.

There are no good guys in this movie, but the only message seems to be that submission to the system is the answer if you want to avoid a horrific fate. Not surprisingly, this did not go over well with fans.  But why would Hollywood seek to sabotage a character that their audience finds fascinating?  Well, they've been doing that for years now with every beloved franchise, mainly those starring straight white men.

They destroyed Luke Skywalker by making him a bitter, lazy nihilist.  They destroyed Indiana Jones by making him a bitter, forgotten aging divorcee.  They destroyed James Bond by making him second fiddle to a 90 pound black woman and then killing him. They destroyed the Ghostbusters by replacing the men with unfunny women and pretending the original films didn't exist. There are hundreds of examples of this character assassination since around 2016.  It's the reason why Hollywood is failing so spectacularly today. 

To be fair, Todd Phillips is perhaps not as good a director as people initially assumed.  The first Joker steals a considerable amount of plot and character development from two of Martin Scorsese's best films - Taxi Driver and The King Of Comedy.  In fact, The Joker is merely a marriage of those two movies with a little Batman lore mixed in.  Arthur Fleck is Rupert Pupkin and Travis Bickle if they had gone even further down the path of rage.  In the second film Phillips was starting from scratch and it shows.    

In the late 1970s to early 1980s, it was acceptable for Hollywood to portray the plight of disaffected young white men searching for meaning in a world that has forsaken them.  Today, the progressive left considers the character of Travis Bickle a monstrous symbol that should never be replicated on the big screen for fear that he might "inspire" all those dangerous white men out there in the real world to act on their inherent terrorist impulses. 

The entertainment media was in an uproar, accusing Joker of sympathizing with angry white males in a way that "excused their behavior."  'Medium' argued that The Joker is "actually about the rage that bubbles to the surface when white males are denied the future they think they are entitled to." 

Salon claimed that the "American epidemic of white male rage fueled "Joker" to Oscar contention glory, but also the film's downfall." 

White men are not allowed to feel disaffected or angry, because supposedly the "patriarchy" is built to cater to them.  White men are so dangerous they have to be suppressed, lest they wake up one day and start a fascist revolution. 

In the DC comics the Joker is an unabashed psychopath seeking to prove that, deep down, everyone else is just as corrupted as he is.  In the Todd Phillips movie, Joker is an empathetic character created by an abusive and broken society that only offers him drugs to numb the pain of existence.  Again, you aren't supposed to feel bad for straight white men or understand why they might become violent. 

In Taxi Driver, Travis Bickle decides he's going to go lone wolf from society and make his mark instead of living in obscurity.  He has a choice to use his newfound freedom for good or evil.  It's hard to say if he chooses to do good because he wants to or because it's easier, but in the end he aims his aggression at terrible people and saves the life of an innocent girl.  

In the first Joker, Arthur Fleck has no real choice.  He must either embrace the clown and lash out, or be crushed under the boot of the system.  At the end of the film, Fleck becomes a symbol of chaos and revenge and, like Travis Bickle, finds a strange kind of freedom.  In the second movie, Todd Phillips and Hollywood in general attempt to remedy their previous mistake by not only killing the character, but absolutely humiliating him and then forcing him to abandon his ideals before he dies.    

Many people might assume that the woke left is attracted to symbols of anarchy and chaos, but the truth is they only use those dynamics as weapons to gain power. 

They love authoritarian order, as long as it's applied against the people they hate.  Joker: Folie à Deux is yet another reminder of how the political left really thinks.

 The underlying message of the movie?  The corrupt system always wins, so conform or you'll be next. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 04:15

Norway, One Of World's Most Cashless Economies, Just Made It A Lot Easier To Pay With Cash

Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

In a major U-turn in the Global War on Cash, the government and central bank of Norway, one of Europe’s most cashless economies, are seeking to slow or even reverse the mass abandonment of cash. Only 3% of Norwegians used cash in their latest purchase in a physical shop, according to a recent central bank survey.

In a bid to change that, a new amendment to Norway’s Financial Contracts Act came into force on October 1 that bolsters citizens’ rights to pay with cash in retail settings. The new legislation should sound the death knell for all the “we only accept cards” signs plastered on shop windows throughout the country, reports the Norwegian online newspaper Nettavisen.

Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, explains on its website how the new amendment will “clarify” customers’ right to pay in cash:

Section 3-5 (1) of the Central Bank Act stipulates that banknotes and coins issued by Norges Bank are legal tender. It further states that no one is obliged to accept more than 25 coins of each denomination in one transaction. Beyond this, the Act does not elaborate on what legal tender implies.

In June 2024, the Storting enacted an amendment to Section 2-1, third paragraph of the Financial Contracts Act, clarifying consumers’ right to pay with cash:

“In sales premises where a business regularly sells goods or services to consumers, the consumer shall be offered the option to pay with legal tender if it is possible to pay for the goods or services with other payment solutions in or in immediate connection to the sales premises. If the business has available change, it must also offer to provide change in connection with the payment, unless there is a clear discrepancy between the banknote offered as payment and the amount to be paid. The first and second sentences do not apply to the sale of goods from vending machines, sales in unstaffed premises, and sales in premises to which only a limited group of people have access. The first and second sentences also do not apply when the amount to be paid exceeds 20,000 kroner.”[1]

For anyone wondering, 20,000 kroner is worth close to $2,000. As Norge Bank explains, retail businesses that refuse to abide by this change in the law could face financial penalties:

In connection with this legislative amendment, the Storting also decided to introduce a sanction in the form of an administrative fine, which may be imposed if businesses willfully or negligently violate the rules in Section 2-1, third paragraph.

Motive #1: Genuine Financial Inclusion

One of the main justifications for the legislation is to support the estimated 600,000 people in the country — equivalent to roughly 10% of the population — who struggle to use digital payments, and who have been increasingly excluded from the retail economy. Cashless economics is often touted as a means of encouraging financial inclusion, which generally means extending exploitative and abusive financial services to those previously excluded. However, in reality there is no more inclusive form of payment method than cash.

“In a digital world, it can be easy to forget that there is a large group of people who are not digital,” says Minister of Justice and Public Security Emilie Enger Mehl. “Cash is also an important emergency preparedness for society. I am pleased that the majority in the Storting [Norway’s parliament] so clearly supported our proposal to strengthen the right to pay with cash. The regulations have been too unclear. People should be confident that they will be able to pay when they go to the store, to a restaurant or to the hairdresser.”

Many Norweigan pensioners are “jubilant” about the change in law, reports Nettavisen.

“This is very important for all the elderly who struggle to pay online, remember the code or who struggle to trust bank cards,” says manager Jan Davidsen, manager of the Norwegian Pensioners’ Association. “For many, cash provides security, it is something they have become accustomed to over the course of a long life. This has been a battle for us, so now we are going to celebrate!”

But not everyone is cracking out the champagne. As NC reader Anders points out in the comments below, Norway, like neighbouring Sweden, has near-free debit cards. And although the payment terminal does have fees associated with it, the costs for retailers are less than what cash costs. Some retailers are far from enamoured with the idea of having to once again handle cash.

“I’m not going to change my practices,” Anders Ellburg, general manager of Holmenkollen, an upmarket restaurant in Helsinki, tells Finans Fokus:

“Cash costs me a lot of money to handle. I run a clean business. Only those who run the black market are interested in cash.

Ellburg put his foot down against cash payment as early as 2014. The card advocate from the capital’s fashionable restaurant scene is the only one of the cash-free players we have contacted who wanted to have a chat with Finansfokus. But Ellburg also made it clear that we should rather talk to those who still use cash – and ask why on earth they do it.

“I was the first in Norway to issue a press release stating that I do not accept cash. When older people have come and told me that they have been to the ATM to withdraw money, I have explained that there is no difference between entering the code in the ATM and entering it at a bank terminal in the restaurant,” he says.

Motive #2: Financial Resilience

Besides ensuring that people are not excluded from participating in the economy, the new amendment has another important goal in mind: to provide the economy with greater financial resilience. In April, a press release from the Ministry of Justice and Public Security highlighted the importance of cash as an “always on” payment option, ensuring Norway’s economy will not be rendered completely inaccessible in the event of “prolonged power outages, system failure or digital attacks against payment systems and banks”.

The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection even recommends people to have some amounts of cash at all times in case digital forms of payment stop working — something that appears to be happening with increasing frequency. This echoes a similar message issued a couple of years ago by a Finnish central bank official. In October 2022, Päivi Heikkinen, the Head of the Payment Systems Department and Chief Cashier at the Bank of Finland warned that households in Finland should make sure they have some cash on hand, just in case the country’s payments system goes down.

“More payment methods bring resilience,” said Heikkinen. “If a single payment method sometimes does not work, then we have other payment methods at our disposal. Cash still plays a very important role here.”

A Growing Trend

In another neck of the Scandinavian woods, the world’s oldest central bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, keeps sounding the alarm about the fragility of cashless economies, as we reported in May:

Digitalization… makes payments “more vulnerable to cyber attacks and disruptions to the power grid and data communication,” the bank points out. At the same time, the geopolitical developments of the past few years required “Sweden to have strong civil defense.” The developments suggested “that we should concentrate more than before on the challenges of digitalization.”

Put another way, cash does not crash. It does not fail in a power cut or seize up during a cyber attack (though, of course, ATMs might). By contrast, digital payment systems need a stable and continuous internet connection to process transactions. When these connections fail, the result is often chaos. Digital payment outages have caused significant disruption in a host of countries in recent years, including the US, the UK, Australia, Indonesia, Germany, Canada, Spain and Norway. Generally speaking, the more cashless the country, the greater the disruption.

Since that post went up, the world has suffered an even more disruptive payments outage. In July, a content update by the cyber-security firm CrowdStrike caused millions of Microsoft systems around the world to crash, bringing the operating systems of banks, payment card firms, airlines, hospitals, NHS clinics, retailers and hospitality businesses to a standstill. Businesse were faced with a stark choice: go cash-only, or close until the systems came back online.

Such was the scale of the resulting disruption that even stalwart British media outlets like The Sun, The Times, The Guardian and The Mail ran articles on how the global IT outage had underscored the fragility of a cashless society. The Daily Mail plastered the message across its front page:

The digital payment outages didn’t stop there; they just keep on coming. On September 12, 250,000 card terminals in Germany — the equivalent of one-in-four of the country’s devices — stopped working, according to FAZ. Once again, the cause of the outage appears to be a software glitch, this time affecting the payment service provider Telecash. On the same day, outages were also reported in the Netherlands.

Protecting the Right to Use Cash: A Growing European Trend

In recent years a growing number of countries in Europe have passed or proposed legislation to protect the right of citizens to use cash as payment. They include Switzerland and Austria, two countries where cash is still very much King, as well as Slovakia, where the Robert Fico government last year passed an amendment to the constitution intended to protect physical payments from a future in which the digital euro becomes mandatory.

Back in Sweden, which is arguably even more cashless than Norway, the Riksbank, like its Norwegian counterpart, has called on the government to adopt urgent measures to strengthen cash’s role as a means of payment. Late last year, the central bank echoed a point we have been making for the past few years: “it is not enough to simply take measures to strengthen the availability of cash through withdrawal requirements and new depots, it must also be usable.”

That means taking a leaf out of neighbouring Norway’s book and adopting legislation that makes it much harder for retail outlets to reject cash payments. In a 14-page response to a parliamentary inquiry on the State’s role in payments, the Riksbank warned that “legislation on cash needs to be tightened up immediately” and “political decisions are needed urgently so that everyone can pay”:

“Cash is essential for digitally and financially excluded consumers. Cash is also the only payment instrument that can be used independently of electricity and telecommunications and is therefore important for Sweden’s emergency preparedness. There is no reason or time to wait for a new review, as the Inquiry infers. There is a considerable risk that cash will be further marginalised and that in the near future it can no longer be used for essential purchases. The Riksbank therefore proposes legislative amendments regarding the possibility of paying cash for essential goods and an obligation for banks to accept cash deposits from consumers”…

The Riksbank does not share the Inquiry’s assessment that, with regard to legal tender, the
legislator can wait to introduce even stronger obligations to accept cash until a new review of
the status of cash and access to cash has been carried out. In the Riksbank’s opinion, the Inquiry should have submitted legislative proposals that strengthen the position of cash even
more.

The inquiry itself concluded that Sweden’s shift toward a cashless society may have finally reached the outer limits of what is possible — at least for the “foreseeable future.”

“The use of cash for payment purposes has gradually declined over a longer period of time and is now comparatively low,” the inquiry reported, before adding that demand for cash has ‘remained virtually unchanged’ over the past five years. “Analysts have concluded that the direction of travel is clearly towards (in principle) a cashless society, especially in Sweden. The statistics, however, do not point to such a development, or indeed… that this will occur in the foreseeable future.”

Now, the central banks of both Sweden and Norway have the unenviable task of trying to slow or even reverse the mass abandonment of cash that they themselves helped set in motion. They will have their work cut out given that so much of their respective countries’ cash infrastructure — in particular private banks’ branch networks, ATMs and the distribution services offered by cash handling companies — has been allowed to wither over recent years.

It also remains to be seen whether enough Swedish and Norwegian citizens are prepared to reembrace cash if it is made more available and easier to use. As in many countries, demand for cash in Norway has risen slightly over the past year with the number of withdrawals at ATMs ticking up, according to Norges Bank. But is this a sustainable trend? As payment technologies have advanced this century, most Norwegian and Swedish citizens have embraced the speed, ease and convenience of digital payments. But they were also nudged in that direction.

By 2016, Sweden’s commercial banks had made 60% of their branches cashless, as a 2019 Riksbank working paper documents. This made it much more difficult for citizens to access cash and for businesses to deposit it, which in turn accelerated the uptake of digital payments and the abandonment of cash. The Riksbank did its part by withdrawing many of Sweden’s large denomination notes from circulation. Now, it is trying to halt, or at least slow, the country’s onward march toward a cashless future.

Time is of the essence. As the central bank warns, if urgent action isn’t taken to fortify Sweden’s cash infrastructure, it will soon be too late:

[T]here are already such problems with cash and cash handling that there is reason to immediately tighten legislation to safe guard the position of cash and access to cash services. If the state waits until cash and cash services are further phased out, this could lead to a situation where it is too late to take action, or there is a risk that operators will be forced to go back and reinvest in equipment and systems.

Given Norway and Sweden have gone further than most countries in removing cash from the economy, the fact they are both now warning about the dangers and vulnerabilities of a fully cashless economy as well as the urgent need to protect both access to and use of cash should be taken very seriously — not just within their borders but far beyond them.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 03:30

Russia Claims Another Ukrainian Town In East As Fighting Also Intensifies In Zaporizhzhia

Russian forces on Sunday announced more advances in the vicinity of the strategic Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, after weeks of steady gains and several villages recently being brought under Russia's control.

The defense ministry said Russian troops have now taken the village of Mykhailivka, which lies just outside the town of Selydove and to the south of Pokrovsk.

Via Reuters/RFE/RL

Selydove could be next to fall. It has already been largely turned to rubble after months of heavy shelling, and most of the population had along ago fled.

Further details published in Newsweek show that Selydove is a current main focus of Russian forces:

In an update published at 4 p.m. local time, the Ukrainian General Staff did not mention Mykhailivka by name, but said Russian forces were "concentrating its main efforts near Selydove, where 12 battles have taken place so far."

Popular Ukrainian war-tracking blog, DeepState, showed the vast majority of Mykhailivka to be under Russian control as of Sunday.

For the majority of the war, Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine's eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro.

The city's defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia's access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country. Donetsk and the whole east would then be under complete Russian control.

Apart from Donetsk, heavy fighting has also been reported in southern Zaporizhzhia region this weekend. Ukraine's military on Sunday is sounding the alarm over "new assault operations".

Fresh widespread power outages have been reported in Zaporizhzhia as a result. "Power outages have been reported in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts over the past 24 hours due to ongoing hostilities," local media reports.

NEW: Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/kQpaZgOq8v

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 12, 2024

"Russian forces targeted a substation in Kherson Oblast with a drone, igniting a fire that has since been extinguished," the update continues. "Consumers have been switched to backup power supplies."

President Zelensky over the weekend has touted that the Ukrainian Army has held the lines in Russia's Kursk region; however, the Kursk offensive ultimately has no bearing on the situation in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. It is in these eastern and southern regions of Ukraine where the war's outcome is likely to finally be settled.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 02:45

Why We Shouldn't Expect Peace In 2025

Submitted by Vincenzo Lorusso,

With a likely victory of Donald Trump in a month’s time, one may be forgiven for expecting that he will be true to his promise to end the Ukraine war “in 24 hours”. 

Logic and facts on the ground suggest that this outcome is highly unlikely.

First, next year Moscow will increase military spending by 22.6% compared to this year and by 54% compared to the original project for 2025, drawn up at the end of 2023. Defense spending will exceed 8% of GDP and will amount to a staggering 40% of all federal spending.

Do you think that this spending is related to the fact that the war ends next year?

The Kremlin will enter the path of negotiations only when it achieves the main military-political goal of the campaign: Ukraine's non-participation in NATO.

At the moment, the situation around the special military operation can hardly be considered concluded for negotiations to begin.

The Russian armed forces are facing the fall of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Chasov Yar. The complete liberation of Donbass and access to the Dnepropetrovsk region are already a preliminary sign of Russia's victory. Before that happens, talking about Moscow’s participation in the negotiations is empty talk.

However, with the whole of NATO technological fire power aligned against it, accomplishing this goal will take Russia a lot of time and money. Military experts from both camps have been consistently wrong since the outset.

Secondly, the end of the conflict is not beneficial to the United States. No matter how much Trump and other Republicans complain about the Ukrainian issue and link all America’s problems to it, the Ukrainian war is the most successful investment in US foreign policy in recent decades.

You have to be a complete idiot to believe that Americans are sorry for the $150-200 billion spent that will impoverish Russia.

In 20 years, America has spent more than a trillion dollars on Afghanistan. But is it possible to compare Afghanistan’s dividends with Ukraine’s? The EU economy is destroyed and totally dependent on the United States, Russian gas and oil are being withdrawn from the European market, Russia is spending enormous resources on victory in the Ukrainian steppes.

And now the question is: how many tens of thousands of American soldiers would have to die with the direct participation of the United States in the conflict with the Russian Federation to achieve such indicators? Incredible results are achieved at the cost of the lives of Ukrainians, which no one cares about.

Any sane person in the place of the US President would in no case limit the Ukrainian conflict, but would continue it. If there had been any pressure to resolve the conflict, it should by now have come from Europe. Alas, for reasons that will be poured over by historians for decades to come, there is no such sign. Quite  the contrary.

Thirdly, premature peace is not beneficial for China. The warming of the “Korean” and “Taiwanese” cards is coming. Beijing would prefer that by the time conflicts in the Asian region resume, the United States would be “in trouble” and forced to be distracted by other local conflicts. In addition, peace in Ukraine in the current conditions is a complete geopolitical triumph for the United States. On such a victorious wave, all the centrifugal forces of the world will accept the will of the White House, depriving Beijing of room for maneuver. Many countries currently “sitting on the fence” or at least keeping their options open would have to conclude that Russia does not have the force to shape a future world order.

China will contribute in every possible way to the prolongation of the conflict until: a) Russia enforces its conditions and humiliates the West; b) China does not deem it necessary to be ready for an acute phase of confrontation with the United States.

The dream of the West in the war in Ukraine is the destruction of Russia, or to make it a vassal state like any "little Italy" or all other European countries.

The White House will do everything to force the Kremlin to abandon the alliance with Beijing, the main competitor of the United States.

They dream of the maximum impoverishment of the Russian Federation, after which they will try to impose the "rules of the 1990s", when Moscow was an absolutely amorphous and non-independent actor.

Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris will change this strategic logic, since it is fully consistent with the interests of the deep state and the largest global financial institutions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 02:00

Violence Has Been Normalized

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

During the misnamed and mostly preposterous debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a moderator fact-checked Trump’s claim that crime is up.

In contrast to Trump’s claim, moderator David Muir said that the FBI reports that crime is down, a claim that likely struck every viewer as obviously wrong.

Shoplifting was not a way of life before lockdowns. Most cities were not demographic minefields of danger around every corner. There was no such thing as a drugstore with nearly all products behind locked Plexiglas.

We weren’t warned of spots in cities, even medium-sized ones, where carjacking was a real risk.

It is wildly obvious that high crime in the U.S. is endemic, with ever less respect for person and property. As for the FBI’s statistics, they’re worth about as much as most data coming from federal agencies these days.

They’re there for purposes of propaganda, manipulated to present the most favorable picture possible to help the regime.

Lies, Damn Lies and Government Statistics

This is certainly true of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department, which have been shoveling out obvious nonsense for years.

Professionals in the field know it but go along for reasons of professional survival. In truth, we’ve never had a real economic recovery since lockdowns.

Crime is up. Literacy is down. Trust has collapsed. Societies were shattered and remain so.

Only a few weeks following the officious fact-check at the debate, we now have new data from the National Crime Victimization Survey.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

“The urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019–2023. Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span. From 2022–2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities.”

But the FBI tries to tell you that crime is down. Sure, whatever they say.

The report isolates the “post-George Floyd protests” because no media source wants to mention the lockdowns. It is still a taboo subject.

We somehow cannot say, even now, that the worst abuses of rights in U.S. history in terms of scale and depth were a disaster, simply because saying so implicates the whole of the media, both parties, all government agencies, academia and all the upper reaches of the social and political order.

Politics Has Become Life and Death

The problem of political division is getting alarmingly serious. It’s no longer just about competing yard signs and loud rallies. We now have regular assassination attempts, plus even an extremely strange appearance of a bounty put on a candidate’s head by an official agency.

Surveys have shown that 26 million people in the U.S. believe that violence is fine to keep Trump from regaining the presidency. Where might people have gotten that idea?

Probably from many Hollywood movies that fantasize about having killed Hitler before he accomplished his evil plus the nonstop likening of Trump to Hitler, and hence one follows from another.

Liken Trump to Hitler and that is the result you produce.

There’s private violence, public violence and many forms in between including vigilante violence. Rights violations against person and property are now normalized.

This springs from the culture of our times which has been heavily informed and even defined by the deployment of state violence in service of policy goals, at a scale, scope and depth never before seen.

The Role of Censorship

Censorship is a major part of it. Censorship is the deployment of force in service of state power, and other institutions connected to state power, for purposes of culture planning.

It’s exercised by the shallow state, in response to the middle state, and on behalf of the deep state. It’s a form of violence that interrupts the free flow of information: the ability to speak, and the ability to learn.

Censorship trains the population to be quiet, afraid and constantly stressed, and it sorts people by the compliant versus the dissidents. Censorship is designed to shape the public mind toward the end of shoring up regime stability. Once it starts, there’s no limit to it.

I’ve mentioned to people that Substack, Rumble and X could be banned by the spring of next year, and people respond with incredulity. Why? Four years ago, we were locked in our homes and locked out of churches, and the schools for which people pay all year were shut down by government force.

If they can do that, they can do anything.

Remember Free Speech?

Censorship has been so effective that it’s changed the way we engage with each other even in private. Brownstone Institute, which I founded, recently held a private retreat for scholars, fellows and special guests.

One very special guest wrote me that she was completely shocked at the freedom of thought and speech that was present in the room. As a mover in the highest circles, she had forgotten what that was like.

This censorship coincides with a strange valorization of violence that we are presented with from all over the world: Ukraine, the Middle East, London, Paris and many American cities. Never have so many held video cameras in their pockets and never have there been so many platforms on which to post the results.

One does wonder how all these relentless presentations of destruction and killing affect public culture.

Why They’re Doing It

What purpose are all these soft, hard, public and private exercises of violence serving? The standard of living is suffering, lives are shortening, despair and ill health are main features of the population and illiteracy has swept through an entire generation.

The decision to deploy violence to master the microbial kingdom did not turn out well. Worse, it unleashed violence as a way of life.

“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society,” wrote Frederic Bastiat, “over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”

That is precisely where we are. It’s time we talk about it and name the culprit. Liberty, privacy and property were already unsafe before 2020 but it was the lockdowns that unleashed Pandora’s box of evils.

We cannot live this way. The only arguments worth having are those that name the reason for the suffering and offer a viable path back to civilized living.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 23:20

UMich Chinese Grads Criminally Charged For Military-Base Photos

Via The College Fix,

Federal law enforcement has charged five recent University of Michigan graduates who were found taking photos near a military base hundreds of miles from campus.

The recent grads are accused of “lying and trying to cover their tracks, more than a year after they were confronted in the dark near a remote Michigan military site where thousands of people had gathered for summer drills,” according to the Associated Press.

“The five, who were University of Michigan students at the time, were not charged for what happened at Camp Grayling in August 2023,” the AP reported. “Rather they are accused of misleading investigators about the trip and conspiring to clear their phones of photos, according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court.”

“The defendants are not in custody,” the U.S. Attorney’s office said. “Should they come into contact with U.S. authorities, they will be arrested and face these charges.”

“We are media,” the students said when “confronted” by a National Guard member, the AP reported.

The students graduated in spring as part of a “joint program between the university and the Shanghai Jiao Tong University in Shanghai, China,” the AP reported.

“They have been identified as Zhekai Xu, Renxiang Guan, Haoming Zhu, Jingzhe Tao, and Yi Liang,” Just the News reported.

A Michigan congressman said the charges highlight the need to be “vigilant” about spying from the Chinese Communist Party.

Michigan Republicans have been critical of plans for a Chinese Communist Party-linked battery company to build a plant just 88 miles from the military base.

Congressman John Moolenar stated in his news release:

This case shows once again that CCP espionage can happen anywhere in America and we must be vigilant. The CCP obviously has an interest in Camp Grayling and this is further evidence it would be a mistake for Michigan leaders to allow Gotion to build in our state. State funding for Gotion’s plan to bring Chinese nationals to Mecosta County is an open invitation for further spying on Camp Grayling.

“For national security reasons, Governor Whitmer and the legislature must revoke state funding for Gotion immediately,” the Republican Congressman stated, linking the charges against the students to the battery plant.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 22:10

Whitmer Apologizes For Lesbian Hagmaxxing Dorito Stunt After Catholic Backlash

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has apologized for a video in which she feeds a social media influencer a Dorito chip - a stunt widely slammed by Catholic organizations as mocking the sacrament of communion.

In the video, influencer Liz Plank kneels before Whitmer, who feeds her the chip. Whitmer then gazes at the camera while wearing a Harriz-Walz hat.

Democrat Gov Gretchen Whitmer blasphemes the Eucharist, feeding a Dorito to a leftist podcaster as if it’s Holy Communion. Wearing a Kamala hat.

It’s wild that some Christians refuse to vote when Democrats obviously loathe you… because you’re Christian.pic.twitter.com/tcVN1lzWmh

— Liz Wheeler (@Liz_Wheeler) October 10, 2024

"I would never do something to denigrate someone’s faith," Whitmer said in a statement provided to Michigan's WJBK, adding that the stunt was meant to promote legislation signed by President Joe Biden in 2022 known as the "Chips Act," which provides $280 billion to research and manufacture semiconductors.

According to Whitmer, it was "construed as something it was never intended to be, and I apologize for that."

A likely story... more like a blasphemous lesbian hagmaxxing fetish.

Whitmer's stunt was slammed by the Michigan Catholic Conference, which accused Whitmer and Plank of "specifically imitating the posture and gestures of Catholics receiving the Eucharist."

Paul Long, the conference's CEO, said of Whitmer's apology: "While dialogue on this issue with the governor’s office is appreciated, whether or not insulting Catholics and the Eucharist was the intent, it has had an offensive impact."

Also, what's this weird Dorito thing going on with Democrats? #Doritogate?

My guilty pleasure? Doritos. pic.twitter.com/vOaLMZeYWl

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) July 22, 2019

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 21:35

Hedge Fund CIO: "After The Last Disillusioned Gold Bulls Sold Their Final Ounce, Gold Started Rallying... And Has Not Looked Back"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“Let me start with the psychology that governed the gold market for years,” I said. It was our IC meeting and the topic of gold’s recent outperformance versus bitcoin came up. “When Bernanke unleashed QE during the GFC, a lot of very smart people rushed to hedge themselves against a massive monetary inflation. Gold was an obvious hedge, and the Baby Boomers were in their investing prime back then. They felt highly exposed to an inflating-away of their life savings. They already owned homes. Many bought gold. Some bought far too much."

“Republicans prevented Obama from the wild stimulus spending he sought. And China’s deflation-exporting economy was still being brought online in the aftermath of its WTO ascendance. Plus, Beijing pumped it up through massive subsidies/stimulus. There were surely other reasons why inflation didn’t take off back then. Expectations remained generally stable. And despite Europe’s response to an existential sovereign debt crisis, and Draghi’s 2012 commitment to do “whatever it takes”, the Germans never let spending get out of control.

“Gold peaked in the summer of 2011 at over $2500/oz and turned lower. By 2015, it had fallen roughly 40%, back to the $1400 level it hit in March 2008. All these Baby Boomers with gold buried in their backyards were gutted. They prayed that if they ever got back to the highs, they’d sell. We’ve all prayed like that. Every one of us. Those who held until July 2020 got the chance to sell again near the 2011 highs at $2400. Covid stimulus sparked that rally. Some sold. Gold fell. The holders begged forgiveness. Then sold. Gold fell 30% over 2yrs.

“Baby Boomer bulls eventually lost faith. Many needed cash, they were retiring. Some got bearish gold and pointed to the EU’s confiscation of Russia’s foreign reserves following the Ukraine invasion. “If gold couldn’t rally on that, then would it ever,” they asked. The last disillusioned bulls sold their final ounce. Then gold started rallying. It has not looked back. That’s what can happen to a market once you clean out the remaining stale positions. A clean market can really move, given a clear fundamental catalyst; gold has at least two.

why oh why did gold decouple from gold ETFs in 2022, just as central banks unleashed a record gold buying spree pic.twitter.com/qFb0ZCPOF4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 17, 2024

“The confiscation of Russian assets means governments will increasingly diversify their foreign reserves into non-sovereign assets. Gold is one. And now that China is committing to stimulus, every major economic zone appears to be doing the opposite of austerity. So, in a world of potentially infinite fiat, scarce assets should appreciate. Gold has. It’s +40% over the past 12mths. Bitcoin is +134% over that period. But for the past 7mths, Bitcoin has chopped around in a 30% range (13% below all-time highs), while gold continued upward. Why?

When Bitcoin hit $59k in Apr 2021, the bullishness was insane. It fell nearly 50% through that summer and made new highs around $65k in Nov 2021. Then it collapsed to the $15k area on the FTX failure. A material portion of bulls who endured that net worth crash prayed to God that they’d sell some, most, maybe even all (probably not all, this is crypto) if they ever got back to the highs. Bitcoin hit $72.75k this Mar. There’s been selling into every market rally since, even as clear fundamental catalysts appear (the same ones as for gold). And as this happens, market positioning gets cleaner. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 21:00

Number Of Apple Vision Pro Apps Hit By "Significant Slowdown" As Demand Plunges

The number of new apps released for Apple Vision Pro has slid since the mixed-reality headset became available for purchase on February 2. Without killer apps, the success of the over-priced goggles will flounder.

Wall Street Journal reports that the Vision Pro app ecosystem has experienced a significant slowdown in growth since the launch. Demand for the base $3,499 Vision Pro has been out of reach for many consumers struggling to survive in an era of elevated inflation and high interest rates. The glasses were likely mispriced, hence sluggish demand. 

More from WSJ: 

There has been a significant slowdown in new apps coming to the Vision Pro every month. Only 10 apps were introduced to the Vision App Store in September, down from the hundreds released in the first two months of the device's launch, according to analytics firm Appfigures.

It has counted around 1,770 apps available for the Vision Pro in the App Store as of September. Only 34% of those apps are built specifically for the Vision Pro, while the rest are versions of existing Apple apps that have additional Vision Pro functionality, Appfigures said.

Apple said in August that there are more than 2,500 apps built for the Vision Pro. Appfigures said the discrepancy between these two figures could be, in part, because some apps aren't used enough to register on usage charts, making them difficult for the analytics firm to detect.

A visualization from the Journal shows a large decline in the number of new apps released for Vision Pro every month since its launch.

Source: WSJ

App growth for Vision Pro has fallen off a cliff, and that's mostly because demand for the futuristic ski goggles costs too damn much for the consumer. It's literally worth a couple of months of rent or three months of car payments for many average consumers. 

Audible groans when the price for Apple's Vision Pro is announced.

$3500 to disconnect from reality. No thanks. pic.twitter.com/nFLSlCtWZ7

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) June 6, 2023

Even though Apple hasn't officially released Vision Pro sales figures, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo (best known for gathering intelligence from his contacts in Apple's Asian supply chain) wrote in a note in late April that shipments for the goggles will be around 400k and 450k units for the year, down from earlier estimates of 700k and 800k.

Separately, Counterpoint Research wrote in a report that Vision Pro's second-quarter sales figures imploded 80% from the first quarter.

"To catch on, the Vision Pro would need killer apps, which helped turn the iPhone into one of the most popular consumer products in history," WSJ noted. 

However, as we previously noted... 

Vision Pro's Success Hinges On Cheaper Version As Consumers Balk At $3,500 Price Tag https://t.co/DlTGIIKHNB

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 11, 2024

Just like the AI-enabled iPhone 16, another bust for Apple. 

Yet, Apple's market capitalization is somehow at $3.5 trillion.

Moar buybacks, Tim Cook. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 20:25

Private Equity Firms Are Now Acquiring Skilled Trade Small Businesses

Turns out those years at vocational school and going into business instead of going to college are starting to pay off. 

Other than having the benefit of learning a trade, private equity has now taken a keen interest in buying skilled trade small businesses, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal. 

Private equity firms nationwide are acquiring home services companies, such as HVAC, plumbing, and electrical businesses, aiming to create larger, more profitable operations.

This trend moves these companies away from family ownership, offering mom-and-pop businesses significant payouts, unlike previous generations where firms were typically passed down to children or employees.

Brian Rassel, a partner at the Detroit-based Huron Capital told WSJ: “You don’t need to go to Silicon Valley to have a successful career and entrepreneurial opportunities.”

Rite Way owner Aaron Rice / Photo: WSJ

 Adam Hanover, chairman of Redwood Services, added: “Everybody and their uncle owns an HVAC business in the private-equity space today.”

The Journal report says that Redwood has acquired 35 companies in the past four years, from smaller businesses, typically bought for around $1 million, to larger firms like Rite Way, valued at about $20 million, where it takes majority stakes.

Rite Way, has thrived under Redwood, growing annual revenue from $30 million to $70 million. The company expanded beyond HVAC into plumbing and electrical services, benefiting from increased capital, more service trucks, higher staffing, and new apprenticeship and sales training programs.

Redwood also brought in accountants to focus on profitability. According to Redwood CEO Richard Lewis, small business owners often struggle to manage these tasks or fail to update pricing. Redwood reviews pricing quarterly to stay competitive.

The trades offer good wages for workers without college degrees and can serve as stepping stones for aspiring entrepreneurs. HVAC worker Aaron Rice, who co-founded his plumbing business in 2012 after overcoming addiction and prison time, sold the company when it had 18 employees and $3 million in annual revenue.

He said the sale has given him peace of mind, telling WSJ: “I want to hunt, fish, drink beer and cook meat.” 

You can read the Journal's full report here. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 19:15

Voters See A Choice Between "Leadership" And "Likability": Gallup

By Lidia Saad of Gallup.

Recent ratings of the 2024 presidential candidates’ personal qualities show Vice President Kamala Harris with a strong advantage over former President Donald Trump in U.S. voter perceptions of being likable, while holding smaller leads for having strong moral character and being honest and trustworthy. Trump outpaces Harris in perceptions of being a strong and decisive leader and being able to get things done.

Despite this clear image distinction -- Harris credited with character, Trump with leadership -- neither candidate has a perceptual edge in voters’ beliefs that each possesses five other presidential competencies: managing the government effectively, displaying good judgment in a crisis, having a vision for the country’s future, caring about the needs of people, and being someone people would be proud to have as president.

These findings are from a Sept. 16-28 Gallup survey, conducted after the Sept. 10 presidential debate that gave Americans their one opportunity of the campaign to see the candidates interact.

Perceptions of Trump are similar to what Gallup found at the same time in 2020, except voters are now slightly more likely to believe he would display good judgment in a crisis, up six percentage points to 52%.

Trump’s rating for being honest and trustworthy is higher now than his 38% rating in 2016 when he won the election. However, even at that lower level, Trump’s honesty rating exceeded Hillary Clinton’s, at 31%. This changed in 2020 when, despite seeing his “honest” score improve to 41%, Trump trailed Joe Biden by 11 points on this character dimension.

In fact, in the three presidential election cycles since 2012, when Gallup first measured presidential qualities this way, the candidate with the higher honest/trustworthy score has won. Other characteristics have not been asked frequently enough to observe their track record.

Summary Assessments Show Mixed Results

Harris leads Trump by 51% to 45% on a different question that asks, more broadly, whether each candidate has “the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” Thus, although Trump separately does better on the “strong and decisive leader” item, Harris’ higher ratings for being likable and of strong moral character may count more in voters’ answers to this question.

At the same time, the two are tied in Americans’ views of each on the issues. About half (49%) say they agree with Trump “on the issues that matter most to you,” and 47% agree with Harris.

Democrats See Harris in Better Terms Than Republicans See Trump

Most partisans believe their own candidate possesses the positive characteristics tested in the poll, but Democrats are more convinced than Republicans about certain ones.

Between 89% and 95% of Democrats say each characteristic applies to Harris. And while Republicans show similarly high regard for Trump on most of the traits, fewer than nine in 10 agree he is honest and trustworthy (84%), has strong moral character (82%) or is likable (74%).

Independents’ views are similar to those of all voters nationally on most of the qualities. Still, they are slightly less positive than Americans as a whole about Harris being caring, honest and trustworthy, or a strong and decisive leader. Independents are also less likely than the national average to say Trump has strong moral character, but they show slightly above-average belief that he is a strong leader.

More Voters Credit Harris Than Trump With Running an Effective Campaign

While Trump is tied with Harris in perceptions of being able to manage the federal government, he trails his Democratic opponent by 10 points in ratings of how they are running their campaigns. Whereas 56% of registered voters say Harris is doing an excellent or good job at this, 46% rate Trump as highly. The timing of the poll, coming soon after the presidential debate, could have influenced this result.

Trump’s deficit on this measure is due mainly to political independents, whose 41% excellent/good rating of his campaign is much closer to the 15% he receives from Democrats than to his 86% from Republicans. At the same time, independents’ 53% rating of Harris’ campaign falls squarely between the two partisan groups (90% from Democrats and 21% from Republicans).

Neither Candidate Viewed as More Politically Extreme

Even as Trump attempts to define Harris by some of the more liberal aspects of her record while Harris links Trump to the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, the candidates appear to be at a draw in terms of painting each other as extremist. Close to half of voters, 48%, say Trump’s political views are “too conservative,” while a statistically equivalent 51% call Harris “too liberal.” Most others see each as about right.

Notably, Harris is less likely to be branded “too liberal” than Biden was before he exited the race in June, when 58% said this of him. However, slightly more voters view Harris as too liberal than recent Democratic nominees Barack Obama in both 2008 (45%) and 2012 (47%) and John Kerry in 2004 (47%). She is also more likely to be called too liberal than Al Gore was in 2000 (35%), as well as Bill Clinton in 1992 (33%) and 1996 (36%). The question wasn’t asked about Hillary Clinton in 2016.

At 48%, Trump is more likely to be rated “too conservative” than were the Republicans who ran for president before him, including Mitt Romney (43% in 2012), John McCain (35% in 2008) and George W. Bush (40% in 2004).

Democrats More Satisfied With Harris Than Republicans Are With Trump

More Democrats, including independents who lean Democratic, say they are generally pleased with Harris as their party’s presidential nominee than Republicans and Republican leaners say they are pleased with Trump as theirs, 85% vs. 73%.

Democrats’ enthusiasm for Harris is in stark contrast to how they felt about Biden when he was still their party's presumptive nominee in June. At that point, barely a third of Democrats (34%) were pleased with Biden, while 65% wished someone else were the nominee.

Today’s broad Democratic support for Harris being the nominee also contrasts with how Democrats felt in September 2016 after Hillary Clinton was nominated. Then, just over half (55%) said they were pleased, while 43% would rather have had someone else.

Republicans are about as pleased today to have Trump as their presidential nominee as they were in 2020 (74%), but they are happier now than when he first ran in 2016. In September of that year, barely half of Republicans (52%) were pleased with having Trump lead the GOP ticket.

Trump Hasn’t Inherited Biden’s Age Problem

The age of the candidates was a potential campaign liability for the Democrats earlier this year, when two-thirds of Americans in June thought the 81-year-old Biden was too old to be president. Far fewer, 37%, said the same about 78-year-old Trump.

Yet, despite Trump now being the older candidate by nearly 20 years, the percentage saying he’s too old hasn’t changed much since facing Harris, with 41% expressing that view today.

As the oldest Republican nominee, Trump is still more likely to be viewed as too old than John McCain was at age 72 in 2008 (20%) and Bob Dole was at age 73 in 1996 (32%).

Harris Compares Favorably With Biden

In addition to Democrats viewing her far more favorably as a candidate and ideologically than they did Biden, Harris is performing significantly better nationally on two other metrics than Biden was before he withdrew from the race.

• Voters are more likely to say they agree with her on the issues than did so for Biden in June (47% vs. 37%, respectively).
• Voters are more likely to say Harris has the leadership qualities needed in a president than thought Biden did (51% vs. 38%).

Biden’s readings are from a June 3-23 poll when his presidential approval rating was 38%. Following his withdrawal on July 21, the president’s job approval rating rose to 43% in an August Gallup poll. It dipped back to 39% in early September but is 45% in the latest poll. That’s his highest approval rating since August 2021, just before the United States’ troubled pullout of military forces from Afghanistan.

Bottom Line

Trump and Harris look evenly matched overall, with neither possessing knockout advantages in voters’ ratings of their images, perceptions of their ideology, agreement on issues, ratings for how they are conducting their campaigns, or perceptions that one or the other is too old. If the race comes down to which candidate can get better results in the Oval Office, Trump may have the upper hand. But if voters perceive leadership more holistically, factoring in their perceptions of each candidate’s personality and character, Harris may have the edge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 18:40

Top Cushman & Wakefield Real Estate Broker Has Phone Seized By NY Prosecutors In Adams Probe

As if commercial real estate in New York didn't have enough problems...

It was reported at the end of last week that the office of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has seized the phone of a broker working for Cushman & Wakefield, one of the world's largest commercial real estate services firms, according to Bisnow.

Investigators from Bragg's office have seized electronic devices from a Cushman & Wakefield broker linked to the city's office leases and a close friend of Mayor Adams' top adviser, according to The New York Times.

On September 27, investigators confiscated the phones of Cushman & Wakefield Vice Chair Diana Boutross, Mayor's Chief Advisor Ingrid Lewis-Martin, and Jesse Hamilton, head of the city's real estate department, at JFK Airport after their trip to Japan. Lewis-Martin and Boutross have been longtime friends, her attorney, Arthur Aidala, told Bisnow.

Aidala commented: “There were eight friends who decided to go to one of the biggest tourist countries in the world to just explore on a long-planned friendship trip." 

A spokesperson for Cushman & Wakefield said: “We have a longstanding, 15-year relationship with the city that spans across multiple mayoral administrations and we are proud of the important work we’ve done for DCAS."

The Bisnow report says that Boutross oversees Cushman & Wakefield’s account with the Department of Citywide Administrative Services, the agency responsible for leasing government office space.

Her resume includes work with The Durst Organization and The Trump Organization. Cushman & Wakefield has held a $40M contract with the city since 2014, linked to a Bronx 911 facility, Crain’s reported.

The firm also handled major city office leases, including a 640K SF deal at 110 William St. last year. Investigators seized devices from Lewis-Martin and Hamilton and searched Lewis-Martin’s home, issuing her a subpoena related to Adams' recent indictment.

“These searches and any negative connotations associated with them or this preplanned vacation are baseless. In due time, all the facts will come out and will be supported by evidence and demonstrate everything was done properly,” Aidala concluded. 

 

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 18:05

Why Silver Investors Should Pay Close Attention To Copper

Authored by Jesse Colombo via Substack

For most investors, gold and silver are inseparable, like peanut butter and jelly or two peas in a pod. This mindset leads them to look at gold for signals on silver’s future price movements, and vice versa. Although silver’s price is indeed strongly influenced by gold, few realize the significant role that copper also plays in shaping silver’s price movements. In this article, I’ll examine how copper prices impact silver and show how bullish trends in copper should help drive silver prices higher in the coming years.

To understand the price relationship between two assets, examining their correlations can be highly insightful. Not surprisingly, gold and silver exhibit a strong correlation—.771 over the past five years and an even higher .917 over the past year. What's particularly striking, however, is the strong correlation between copper and silver—.725 over the past five years and an impressive .878 over the past year. This strong correlation is a compelling reason for silver investors to monitor copper as closely as they do gold.

The strong price relationship between silver and copper is clearly reflected in long-term charts of the silver-to-copper ratio, which has remained remarkably consistent over time, despite periodic fluctuations around the average of 6:

The close relationship between silver and copper can be attributed to factors influencing both supply and demand. From a supply standpoint, silver is seldom mined on its own. Instead, it is typically a byproduct of copper and other metal mining, such as lead, zinc, and gold. On the demand side, both silver and copper have substantial industrial applications, driving significant industrial demand for both metals.

While silver is often grouped with gold, it differs significantly in its demand profile. The majority of silver demand (51%) comes from industrial use, compared to just 18% from investment. Furthermore, the rapid growth in industrial demand for silver likely explains the rising correlation between silver and copper in recent years. In contrast, gold demand is largely fueled by investment (44.57%) and jewelry (48.74%)—with much of that jewelry also serving as a form of investment, especially in developing countries like India and China.

Both copper and silver are far more sensitive to the economic cycle compared to gold. For instance, when a recession looms, both copper and silver prices tend to decline in anticipation of reduced industrial demand. Conversely, when the economic cycle is on an upswing, both copper and silver prices typically rise in anticipation of increased industrial demand. Gold, by contrast, is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset that investors turn to during times of crisis.

The strong price relationship between silver and copper is likely amplified by trading algorithms that predict movements in one metal based on the price of the other, often creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. For instance, when copper begins to rally, certain algorithms will buy silver, causing both metals to rise in tandem. Although anecdotal, I’ve often observed silver track copper even more closely than gold, both on intraday movements and over longer timeframes. For instance, I’ve often seen silver rise with copper while gold stayed flat or declined, and at other times, I’ve observed silver dropping along with copper even as gold rallied. I’ll highlight a recent noteworthy example of this phenomenon using the charts below.

As you are probably aware, gold has experienced a remarkable surge over the past year, climbing by $860 per ounce—a nearly 50% increase:

Like gold, copper experienced a strong rally in the spring, but it peaked on May 20th and quickly reversed, wiping out most of its gains—unlike gold, which continued to rise. Copper bottomed on August 8th and has rebounded quite a bit since then and is now in a confirmed uptrend once again:

Finally, we come to silver, which, like gold and copper, saw a sharp rally in the spring. Like copper, silver peaked on May 20th and experienced a sharp decline, though not as severe as copper's drop. While silver and copper suffered throughout the summer, gold steadily continued its ascent. Silver, like copper, bottomed on August 8th and has been staging an impressive recovery ever since.

Silver's price movements are essentially a hybrid of both gold and copper's market trends. To test this theory, I averaged the prices of gold and copper, adjusting copper’s price (by multiplying by 540) to prevent gold’s higher price from exerting undue influence. Then, I created a chart based on that adjusted average. Sure enough, the resulting chart bears a striking resemblance to silver's price chart:

Moreover, the five-year correlation with silver stands at a solid 0.842, while the one-year correlation is an even more impressive 0.956. This is higher than the correlation between gold and silver (0.771 over five years and 0.917 over the past year) and even stronger than the correlation between copper and silver (0.725 over five years and 0.878 over the past year). This analysis highlights the importance of monitoring both gold and copper to gain a clearer understanding of silver's price movements. In addition, performing technical analysis on the chart of the copper-gold average seems to be a useful tool for confirming and anticipating silver's price movements

Along with bullish technicals, copper's fundamentals also point to a positive outlook. As the world increasingly embraces AI and “green” technologies such as electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind farms, demand for copper is expected to surge due to its essential role in wiring and other electrical applications.

For example, copper demand in the transport sector is expected to rise 11.1 times by 2050 compared to 2022, thanks to electric vehicles that contain over a mile of copper wiring. Additionally, demand for copper to expand the global electricity grid is projected to increase 4.8 times by 2050. By 2030, a copper supply gap nearing 10 million tonnes is forecasted. French billionaire and commodities trader Pierre Andurand recently predicted that copper prices could soar to $40,000 per tonne in the coming years—a more than fourfold increase from the current price of $9,308 per tonne. All of these factors should be bullish for both silver and copper.

In conclusion, the overlooked relationship between copper and silver plays a critical role in understanding silver’s price movements, alongside the more commonly recognized influence of gold. As copper continues to rebound, both technical and fundamental factors suggest that silver is poised to benefit as well. With increasing industrial demand, especially in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, copper’s expected boom is likely to drive silver prices higher as well. Investors would do well to monitor copper closely, as its future movements may signal the next major leg up in silver's bull market.

Also watch the video presentation about this concept:

If you enjoyed this article, please visit Jesse's Substack for more content like this

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/13/2024 - 17:30