The "Let It Rip" Canard: Reflections On Jay Bhattacharya

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

Early in the Covid period, the skeptics of government closures and universal quarantines were denounced as favoring a policy of “let it rip.” The phrase has been in use since the 19th century. It is apparently drawn from experience with steamships. When you released power to its maximum extent, it made a ripping sound. 

The implication is that when you let it rip, you let go of all controls and just wait to see what happens. 

Think about the application to infectious disease, at least in the context of the debate over lockdowns. The theory is that if you don’t force people to stay home, force businesses to close, and force schools and churches to shut down, people will mindlessly move about here and there and cause infection to spread wildly. No one will have a clue about what to do about it. 

The implication is that people are unbearably stupid, lack all personal incentive to protect themselves, and somehow cannot but be as reckless as possible.

There will be no strategies, no methods of mitigation, no therapeutics, no limits on the spread of incurable sickness. 

We need geniuses like Anthony Fauci to give us police-enforced guidance in order to stay safe from the consequences of our own choices. We don’t have brains. We don’t have habits born of experience. We don’t have any social mechanisms embedded in our traditions. We don’t have anything. 

We are worse than an anthill, which at least has a rules-based order born of instinct. In this view, human behavior is purely randomized and rote, moving about here and there, fully unable to process information about guidance, lacking completely in any capacity to be careful, wise, or otherwise govern ourselves. 

This is the essence of the push for lockdowns. Anything less than totalitarian control of the human population amounts to utter chaos in which the virus rules us all whereas the geniuses at the controls of government power know all things.

This is the essential worldview of all those who said that lockdown opponents merely want to let the virus rip. 

This was of course the core criticism of the Great Barrington Declaration of which NIH Director-nominee Jay Bhattacharya was the main author. It advocated no such thing as “let it rip.” Instead, it called for public health to recognize the existence of human intelligence and consider the costs of overriding it with police-state edicts that ruin businesses and lives. It came out six months after lockdowns began and already revealed themselves to be devastating. There should not have been anything even slightly controversial about the statement. 

And yet truly there was something about those times that tempted intellectuals toward grave extremes of utopian thinking. Remember the “Zero Covid” movement? Talk about insane. 

I just read an outrageous paper in Frontiers of Health (date March 2021!) that claimed to have the magical solution to Covid. The plan would defeat the disease in “one day” by ordering simultaneous universal testing, forcing all positive tests to isolate, and monitoring all public spaces with concentration camp guards. The authors proposed this seriously, forgetting that a respiratory virus with a zoonotic reservoir cares nothing for such antics. To have signed one’s name to such a suggestion should confine one to a lifetime of ill repute as an intellectual. 

There is also the slight problem of human rights and freedom. But, hey, anyone who yammered on about those topics was then accused of being an advocate of “let it rip.” 

The truth is that we do have intelligence and brains. Older people have always known to avoid large crowds in flu season. Pick up any geriatric magazine and you can discover that this is true. Even our habits of the season reflect that. Intergenerational family units tend to stay indoors as we enter winter months and get out and about in the spring when threats of infectious disease die down. “Focused protection” is embedded in the habits of the calendar year. 

We are also capable of reading data on risk demographics. We knew from February 2020 that Covid posed a medically significant risk mainly to the aged and infirm. There was never a serious risk associated with beach parties or schooling. We knew this at least intuitively, and vast numbers of people also knew to disregard the crazy fear-mongering from the top that was designed to prepare the population for the shot. 

Society knew better than its managers. It is this way in every sector of life in a world in which society is trusted as the primary manager of itself. 

It’s true in economics. Now that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are pushing for radical deregulation of all things, the same critique is being offered. They merely advocate that enterprise “let it rip.” It’s the new name for laissez-faire, another smear term from the 19th century. 

But in the same sense that people have the intelligence to judge disease risk, society generates systems and institutions that put limits and guardrails up for enterprise too. The existence of rivalrous competition with easy entry and exit keeps prices, profits, and costs toward an equilibrium. Producer accountability is instilled with user ratings, reputation, and strict liability (unless you are a vaccine maker enjoying full indemnification). 

People forget that the best institutions assuring quality and safety are not government agencies but private services like Underwriters Laboratory, which has been around since the 19th century, long before the federal government had a single agency regulating even food quality. Remove the regulations, abolish the agencies, and competent and well-run private institutions would appear in every area, the same as professional credentialing now. 

Trusting people to manage infectious disease based on realistic risk assessments is no different from trusting property owners, workers, prices, and markets to work out the best possible solutions to the problem of scarcity in the material world. It doesn’t mean full throttle come what may any more than not locking down means zero control over our health. 

In other words, this whole phrase has been deployed against the idea of freedom itself. In fact, the proponents of lockdowns were not opposed to smearing that word too, spelling it as freedumb. 

Early on in the pandemic response, I was interviewed in Germany and the person asked what the best rhetorical strategy would be to push for a reopening. I suggested they campaign for freedom. The response: that is not possible because the word itself has been discredited. My response: if freedom is discredited, we have no cause of hope at all. 

The legacy of Jay Bhattarcharya’s actions during Covid – joining what felt like a half-dozen of us immediate critics of these awful policies – is not only his attention to science and facts; it is also a reverence for the idea of freedom itself, which really means to trust that society can manage itself with the best-possible outcomes apart from the dictates of pretentious and powerful people at the top. 

In a beautiful irony, Jay now inherits the position of the man who called him a “fringe epidemiologist” and called for the censors to do a “quick and devastating takedown” of his work. It’s been a very long journey lasting nearly five years, but here we are, the man who led the opposition to the worst-imaginable public health policies now in a position to make sure that nothing like this ever happens again. 

Savor this moment: it’s a rare one when justice prevails. As for accountability and the truth about what happened in those dark days, there is a good phrase for what should happen to the information flows that should now happen: let it rip. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 17:00

Looming Trump Tariffs Spark Wave Of Freight Frontloading From China

Anticipating that President-elect Donald Trump will fulfill his promise of a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, importers are frontloading freight before the tariff wall takes effect in less than two months.

Bloomberg reports that international cargo flights out of the world's second-largest economy are ramping up to new records in the weeks after the presidential election. 

According to the Ministry of Transport data, there were 3,485 international cargo flights in or out of China last week, the most since March 2023—or about the time when China reopened its economy after a few years of lockdowns. Last week was the third consecutive week with more than 3,400 flights. 

Souce: Bloomberg

"The threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico will motivate US importers to frontload imports and accumulate inventories, regardless of whether the tariffs are implemented," Barclays analyst Pooja Sriram wrote in a note to clients earlier this week. 

Sriram said, "The 25% tariffs could intensify this pull-forward effect, leading to an even stronger surge in imports in late 2024 and early 2025, thereby widening the trade deficit."

Several Chinese manufacturers, including Shenzhen Lingke Technology, a lighting products manufacturer, told Nikkei Asia that major US retailers have already increased orders.

"The thinking is that American clients want to lock in as many profits as possible before a new round of tariffs kick in," Wu Zhiqiang, CEO of Shenzhen Lingke, told the media outlet.

Nikkei reported, "Microsoft, HP and Dell are scrambling to obtain as many electronic parts as they can before January."

"We think shipment could be front-loaded, boosting exports in the first half of 2025 before dampening them in the second half," other Barclays analysts wrote in a note. Analysts at the bank expect a 30% tariff increase from the U.S. on Chinese goods next year, which would cap China's economic growth in 2025 to about 4%. 

Mike Beckham, CEO of Simple Modern, which produces drinkware and other lifestyle production in Oklahoma, although it relies on components from China, warned there is a lot of tarrif "uncertainty right now."

"Some companies are attempting to ship as much as they can right now, but it has not been a major driver of strategy for the companies I am close with," Beckham said. 

China's export boom bodes well for logistics firms, such as freight forwarders and carriers, in the short term, as the panic to pull forward as much product as possible before tariffs go into effect early next year. 

A report from Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that air cargo prices out of China "have still not spiked and carriers report being busy but not overwhelmed even as December approaches," adding, "Capacity additions to these lanes and shippers who adjusted and planned ahead may prove to be enough to prevent extreme rate climbs and congestion through the end of the year."

Trump announced earlier this week he intends to levy a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada would remain in place until the flow of "drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop," while tariffs on China would remain in place "until such time as [the drugs that are pouring into our country] stop."  He also stated that on January 20, he would "sign all necessary documents" to implement the tariffs on Mexico and Canada as one of his "many first Executive Orders."

Overall, the tariff announcement is reminiscent of the first Trump administration, when such tariffs were announced as a negotiating tactic, rather than the more systematic tariff policies (e.g., the 10-20% "universal baseline tariff") Trump frequently discussed during the campaign.

Deutsche Bank's chief FX strategist, George Saravelos, wrote a note late this week outlining the ten biggest takeaways his desk had about the incoming Trump tariffs. 

Saravelos pointed out the countries that would be most affected by tariffs, including Mexico, Vietnam, and Canada. 

The great pull-forward of freight to hedge against Trump tariffs is well underway—reminiscent of 2018. The only problem is that freight demand will likely slide once frontloading is over. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 16:30

Syrian Jihadists Mount New Assault On Aleppo After Surprise Advance

Authored by Jaston Ditz via AntiWar.com,

The Syrian proxy war never really ended, but it certainly had quieted down for a time, with various factions confined to various areas, and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seeming stuck in Idlib Province. Today the war is flaring up again in a big way.

HTS forces have pushed eastward out of Idlib into the western part of Aleppo Province and toward Aleppo itself, seizing several towns along the way. It is being reported that around 182 people have been killed Thursday alone in the fighting on the ground in the area. That includes 102 HTS fighters and 80 fighters including both Syrian troops and their allies.

Via Middle East Eye

The battles are still ongoing, and the toll continues to increase all the time. The Syrian military seems to be seeing substantial backing from Russian air assets in the area. The HTS is also reported using Ukrainian drones against the Syrian forces. It has been reported for months that Ukraine has offered "drones for fighters" to HTS, but this would mark the first time such drones are being used in a big way in combat.

On top of those killed in the ongoing fighting, the Syrian and Russian air forces have caused substantial civilian casualties. 19 civilians were killed in attacks in and around al-Atareb and Darat Izza, and at least 26 others were wounded. Both of those cities are about 25 km from Aleppo itself, the largest city in Syria, underscoring how quickly the HTS has advanced.

A number of other towns and villages reported airstrikes in the area. Al-Nayrab is by far the closest town to Aleppo to have reported strikes, saying they were hit twice. They are only about 10 km from Aleppo, making them virtually a suburb of the major city.

HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.

Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government.

It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.

⚡️Al Nusra terrorists on the outskirts of Aleppo pic.twitter.com/cS6jbdRl7g

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 29, 2024

The West has a history of backing some of the more local Sunni Islamist groups in the Syrian War. Indeed, the HTS ties with Ukraine’s government underscores that many see them as a practical partner in their respective regional wars.

This could be a growing concern for the Syrian government, as what was once a contained problem in the Idlib Province looks to explode outward starting many of the same fights all over again.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 16:00

Trump Taps Chris Rufo To Help De-Wokify Ivy Leagues Receiving Federal Funding

President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is ramping up efforts to dismantle diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in higher education. In a significant move, key conservative figure Christopher Rufo has been invited to present a proposal to slash federal funding for universities that maintain such programs.

Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a prominent critic of DEI efforts, plans to outline how federal funds could be conditioned on the removal of these programs. The proposal aims to eliminate perceived discrimination in university practices, arguing that DEI programs violate the Civil Rights Act by favoring certain racial, ethnic, or gender groups.

“If you don’t stop discriminating and violating the law, you will no longer be qualified for federal funding,” Rufo emphasized. He anticipates that institutions, particularly Ivy League universities that receive billions annually in federal research funding, would quickly comply.

Rufo’s presentation is part of a broader cultural and political strategy supported by Trump’s incoming administration. Russ Vought, tasked with spearheading government efficiency efforts, is hosting Rufo at Mar-a-Lago to discuss the proposal. Notably, Vice President-elect JD Vance has voiced strong support, citing the need to dismantle DEI in education and proposing significant taxation on university endowments.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Vance views Rufo as "a leading voice in the movement to restore merit and excellence" to universities, adding that Vance believes Rufo "recognizes schools and universities exist to equip American students to face tomorrow’s challenges, not to indoctrinate them with the fringe beliefs of the far left."

Universities have said they are legally and ethically responding to the changing demographics of the nation. Photo: Scott Eisen/Getty Images

This effort mirrors Trump’s earlier actions during his presidency, including banning federal race and gender bias training programs—a measure reversed by President Biden.

As the WSJ notes:

From his perch outside Seattle, the 40-year-old documentary filmmaker and writer has become one of the country’s most influential—and effective—culture warriors, waging public fights against diversity, equity and inclusion efforts in schools, businesses and government. 

Rufo exposed plagiarism in the academic scholarship of Harvard President Claudine Gay and in the writings of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. His reports played a role in Gay’s subsequent resignation in January of this year and damaged Harris’s campaign. He has also taken aim at diversity practices in large companies, most recently at Boeing. 

...

Rufo said he is meeting with members of the Trump administration next month. He has said he thinks colleges and universities have been taken over by the left, and he wants to recapture them by cutting federal money to schools that continue to engage in DEI practices. He also wants to excise race-based affirmative action from any institution with which the federal government does business.

Impact on Universities

The proposed restrictions could have profound financial implications for universities reliant on federal grants and student aid. For example, Harvard University received $686 million in federal research funding in the last academic year. Institutions like Harvard, already under scrutiny for race-based admissions policies, have begun scaling back DEI efforts.

Critics of these programs, including investor Bill Ackman, have linked them to broader cultural issues, such as antisemitism and the suppression of free speech on campuses. Protests and demonstrations have intensified these debates, particularly following the recent conflict in Gaza.

"I hope the president turns the screws on DEI in the Ivy Leagues," Rufo told Bloomberg. "This would put conditions on federal funding, especially the Ivy Leagues, if they practice discrimination regarding DEI."

While universities are a great start, Rufo says the incoming Trump administration envisions a broader crackdown, including denying federal contracts to corporations that continue DEI efforts. This aligns with growing opposition from corporate leaders like Elon Musk, who recently praised Walmart’s decision to scale back diversity initiatives.

“Now the fight returns to the White House, the center of power for the country as a whole,” Rufo said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 15:30

Playing Nuclear Chicken

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

We continue to climb steadily up the World War III escalation ladder.

Last week, Biden foolishly gave Ukraine the green light to strike deep into Russian territory using U.S. missiles.

Now Russia has responded, as Putin promised they would.

On November 21st Russia launched a new hypersonic missile known as the Oreshnik. It is a unique weapon designed to send a clear message.

The Oreshnik utilizes a system similar to MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) technology common on nuclear ICBMs.

This new missile has 6 warheads which each have 6 submunitions. That’s 36 projectiles per missile in total.

Here is a still shot of one of the sets of 6 submunitions just before reaching its target.

It is important to note that the projectiles are not glowing due to rocket engines firing. The warheads separated from the booster engine at a much higher altitude and are now gliding.

The submunitions are glowing due to the plasma bubble created by friction against the dense atmosphere at speeds of around Mach 10 (7,600 mph). That’s 2.1 miles per second.

At such speeds, even if the Oreshnik’s submunitions lack significant explosive payloads, the kinetic energy alone would make for an effective strike asset. This is similar to the sci-fi weapon concept colloquially known as “rods from God”, in which inert tungsten rods are flung down from orbit.

The U.S. and NATO have no defense against the Oreshnik. Targeting 36 independent projectiles traveling at 7,600 mph is a fool’s errand. Striking the missile before the warheads separate is also unlikely, as it has a variable-speed solid rocket engine which makes its trajectory unpredictable.

This new missile adds to Russia’s impressive hypersonic arsenal:

• Kinzhal – Mach 10 air-launched ballistic missile
• Zircon – Mach 9 ship-launched cruise missile
• Iskander – Mach 7 ground-launched ballistic missile
• R-37M – Mach 6 air-to-air missile

Each of these weapons is fully operational, in full production, and has been used successfully during the Ukraine war. To date, these weapons have only been used with conventional explosives. But the first three can also be armed with nuclear warheads.

NATO air defenses have not found much if any, success against Russian hypersonics. And with new options such as the Oreshnik, which would likely target air defenses and ballistic missile sites, the balance in conventional weaponry in Ukraine has moved further in Russia’s favor.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is struggling to get our first hypersonic conventional missile, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), in service. The U.S. has long worked on hypersonic missiles, but the engineering challenges are extreme. Traveling at speeds of Mach 5+ generates massive amounts of heat and friction.

America’s bloated defense sector has been unable to meet the requirements so far. Hopefully, Trump finds success in revitalizing our military-industrial complex. Otherwise, we will continue to fall behind.

Nuclear Options

As Biden goads Russia, he is implicitly relying on America’s nuclear weapons stockpile as a deterrent. At this point, we cannot match Russia when it comes to conventional missile technology.

So when Biden willingly crosses Russia’s red lines, he is counting on the threat of American nuclear weapons to prevent full-out war. He also appears to be attempting to sabotage President Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine.

This is incredibly reckless behavior. One major problem is that Russia has an even larger and more modern nuclear arsenal.

If Moscow or a nuclear power plant is targeted by Ukraine using American missiles, there is a possibility that Russia retaliates with a nuclear strike. We are in essence calling their bluff. And they need to preserve their own defense deterrence posture, or they could look weak.

From there, things could get very ugly very quickly.

In a nuclear war, there are no winners. Biden and his handlers are playing a dangerous game. They are gambling with hundreds of millions of lives.

All of this is simply to drag out another unwinnable conflict. Have we learned nothing from the War on Terror? America’s reign as a lone superpower is over. That’s a reality that needs to sink in so U.S. policy can adapt accordingly.

The sooner the Deep State realizes this, the better off we’ll all be.

The lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis were clear. Lesson One is to avoid escalation. Lesson Two is that if escalation begins, it’s crucial to de-escalate. Failure to abide by these lessons is a straight path to nuclear war.

Russia has signaled that it is ready to begin immediate negotiations with the Trump administration. Trump’s upcoming presidency may be the only thing preventing WW3.

Inauguration Day can’t come fast enough.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 15:05

3 US Aircraft Carriers To Be In Asia During Trump Inauguration

In a historic convergence, three US aircraft carriers will be in Asia by next week after months of absence amid concerns of Chinese activity in the lead up to the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, the Nikkei reported.

The USS George Washington arrives in Yokosuka, Japan for the first time in over nine years on Nov. 22

USS George Washington, with a crew of 2,702, arrived on Friday in Yokosuka, Japan, home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet, returning to the port for the first time in nine years. The USS Carl Vinson was deployed to the Pacific on Monday. Meanwhile the USS Abraham Lincoln is now in the Indian Ocean, passing through the South China Sea, before heading home to San Diego, California.

"This presence enables rapid response for maritime and joint forces and brings our most capable ships with the greatest amount of striking power and operational capability to bear," Lt. Cmdr. Katie Koenig, a U.S. Pacific Fleet spokesperson, told Nikkei Asia. It also "demonstrates our collective resolve to ensure security and stability in the region," she said.

According to Nikkei, the US had no forward-deployed carrier in Asia since mid-May, when the USS Ronald Reagan left Yokosuka. Other aircraft carriers were sent to the Middle East in response to the rising conflict there after Israel launched missile strikes at Lebanon and Iran-Israel tensions heightened.

Analysts say the increased U.S. military presence in the Pacific is to counter any threat by China in the 50-plus days leading up to Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. The presence in the Middle East, where multiple carriers were redirected from the Pacific over the summer, will be reduced.

Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a 26-year U.S. Navy veteran, said, "You're entering a period where the Chinese are positioning for a test of our resolve, and so having that stepped up presence is timely."

"China is clearly the number one threat," Sadler said, adding the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden "is in a place where they feel like they can move away" from the Middle East, following the latest round of Iranian missile attacks against Israel and Israel's retaliatory strike.

Jacob Stokes, deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at Center for a New American Security, said, "China is going to try and test the Trump administration early, probably around Taiwan or the South China Sea, or both." The test, Stokes said, will attempt to determine which of the two sides of Trump Beijing will be dealing with.

"They've seen transactional Trump, that wants to make a deal. Or are they going to get confrontational Trump, which is the way they would characterize his policies from mid to late 2018 on through COVID."

While the U.S. has 11 carriers, most are under maintenance or have just returned from long deployments, leaving only a handful sea ready. As the wars intensified in Ukraine and Gaza, the Pentagon, under Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, prioritized those regions over the Western Pacific.

Stokes said leaders at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command "want to reset the baseline and be well situated in terms of military assets and how they're postured come January."

Sadler said the carrier gap in the Western Pacific over the past few months had led to Chinese provocations in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.

"It's not to say that had there been an extra carrier strike group, that wouldn't have happened. But the president would have had more options to signal displeasure with the Chinese in terms that they could understand," he said.

To fill that void, the navy first deployed the San Diego-based USS Theodore Roosevelt to the region, only to quickly redirect the aircraft carrier to help out in the Middle East. Although another San Diego-based carrier, the Abraham Lincoln, was sent to Asia, that too was redirected to the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 13:50

"Dumb-Shit Grandstanding" - What Part Of 'Mandate' Don't You Understand?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"This version of Trump knows what buttons to press, he knows where the bodies are buried, he’s absorbed their worst and now he is about to throw it right back at them." 

- Jeff Childers

You have every reason to believe that this arrogant, malicious, leviathan government, and the vicious intel / lawfare blob at its vanguard, is about to be turned upside-down, inside-out, and sideways. Every appointment by Mr. Trump is a dose of chemotherapy to this malignant beast, aimed at all its diseased organs. The rogue cells within are going to die hard, struggle against their extinction, shriek and thrash as the treatment proceeds. That is, if it is allowed to proceed.

And so: rumors arise of a coup to prevent it from happening. The benchmark version goes like this: “Joe Biden” keeps up his stupid provocation of Russia with those medium-range ATACMS missiles until Mr. Putin is forced to respond with a strike against a NATO member, say, a military base in Poland used to stage and target the ATACMS. Under NATO’s Article Five — an attack against one is an attack against all — Europe and the US must go to war against Russia. This becomes the pretext for “Joe Biden” to declare an extraordinary emergency (or Kamala Harris, if “JB” can be shoved out under the 25th Amendment.) The inauguration of the newly-elected government must needs be postponed. . . .

Such a move would surely provoke a domestic insurrection against the leviathan and Civil War Two would be on. Or else you might expect a swift counter-coup out of the US military not playing along. Mr. Putin, too, could demur from playing the game, that is, just not go for the bait, refrain from striking any NATO territory. After all, his beef is officially with Mr. Zelensky’s Kiev government. Russia could just pound Kiev until that government ceases to exist. So far Mr. Putin has carefully refrained from destroying the historic city center, mainly hitting power plants to turn off the heat and light to make life extremely uncomfortable in the Ukraine capital with winter coming on. But he could level the city.

The choice is Mr. Zelensky’s, and has been for months as his forces, armaments, and prospects dwindle. He could suspend hostilities, go to talks, even raise a white flag and put an end to the needless suffering. Under no circumstances will he get the Donbas or Crimea back. I doubt that Russia wants to take over the rest of Ukraine, considering the cost of having to support it indefinitely. Better that it should remain a sovereign state and look after itself — but neutral, demilitarized, and, if you like, de-Nazified. You understand that these will be Russia’s final terms? And that there is nothing unreasonable about them?

In short, the hypothetical coup would fail, and the Ukraine war will end, and Mr. Trump will get inaugurated if he is careful to avoid the blob’s assassins until January 20. As for Rep. Jamie Raskin’s scheme to prevent a Trump swearing-in on account of him being “an insurrectionist,” you can file that under “dumb-shit grandstanding.” So, the new government will come in, the new department chiefs will get into office, and the leviathan will get the therapeutic treatment it deserves.

You understand, of course, that the federal bureaucracy is a perverse reincarnation of the old 19th century “Spoils System,” an entrenched, self-replicating matrix of parasites. Both parties have nourished it, but the Democrats have made it their extra-special pet since Mr. Obama was in charge of things. He and his AG Eric Holder arranged for the DOJ to target their political enemies and for the to FBI mutate into a US-KGB, and that behavior persisted for eight long years since Obama and Holder left the scene. The malice all flowed from those departments, since any opponent of the Party’s agenda could get lawfared, financially drained, and put out of business. The party’s sole agenda, really, was to just feed the bureaucratic parasite, and grow it ever-larger and more dependent on the party in order to increase its power.

There will necessarily be confusion over the clean-up of all that. Because of Mr. Trump being the primary target of DOJ / FBI enmity, blob publicists will try to color it as “personal retribution,” but it is really the proper response of an aggrieved nation. A large number of current and former officials deserve to face charges for what they did, serious crimes against their fellow citizens. They also deserve fair trials to determine their culpability. The catch is, these proceedings ought to take place outside the DC federal district court, which is itself parasitized and corrupted.

Outside of these criminal proceedings, the rest is executive process — just firing a lot of dead-weight and bureaucrat officials who contribute nothing but inertia and impediment to the normal functioning of a society. And deconstructing whole agencies. The blob will likely attempt to block that effort by marshaling its own allied lawyer army to bombard the courts with suits and writs. If the Trump team does its work carefully, with scrupulous attention to correct process, that offensive can be overcome and worked-around.

After a while, we’ll discover just how much government is really necessary, sort of like twitter did, after Elon Musk fired 80-percent of the loafers on his payroll. Since so much of the US economy has shifted insidiously into government, this downscaling is apt to be painful, but especially for the local economy of Washington DC, which is to say, a grift economy of overlapping rackets. Upgrade a few laws and whole industries — such as lobbying by military contractors — might be wiped out. But you have to ask: how was that ever a good thing?

For now, we give thanks that important changes are probably underway. Stolen liberties will be returned. You will be free to succeed or fail in a society of voluntary transactions. That was always the essence of being an American, not being a client of a fake therapeutic state, savior of all, but really just protector of its own.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 13:25

"This Week, The Second Trump Trade War Started"

By Philip Marey, Rabobank Senior US Equity Strategist

Tortilla wrap with bacon

This week, the second Trump trade war started. On Monday, there was some market relief after Trump’s announcement on Friday that he would nominate Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. However, that changed on Tuesday after Trump made his tariff threats to Canada, Mexico and China.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not take long to make her own threat of retaliatory tariffs against the US. On Tuesday she said “if there’s a tariff, another one will come in response.” However, on Wednesday, Sheinbaum and Trump had a telephone conversation that she called “excellent” and he “very productive.” Sheinbaum had assured Trump that migrant caravans are no longer reaching the US-Mexican border and she also said that they had discussed increased security cooperation. US-Mexican security relationships had soured after the US had lured a Mexican drug lord out of the country into US custody, without informing Mexican authorities. This led to a split in the Sinaloa cartel and an internal battle of several months that has left more than 400 people dead.

In contrast, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau avoided confrontation and on Tuesday he said he had held a “good” conversation with Trump on Monday night shortly after the Truth Social post and that “we talked about some of the challenges that we can work on together.” On Wednesday, Trudeau met virtually with the provincial premiers to discuss a “Team Canada” approach to Trump’s tariff threat and to stress the importance of unity in Canadian reactions to Trump’s tariff threats. To get Michael Moore’s take on an escalating US-Canada conflict, I would suggest his 1995 film Canadian Bacon.

China, which is blamed for not doing enough to stem the outflow of precursors to fentanyl, reacted calmly. On Tuesday, the Foreign Ministry said that the US should “cherish” China’s goodwill over the issue and added that China was willing to continue working together. Of course, the Chinese reaction is likely to be more forceful if the tariffs are actually implemented.

Trump’s beef with Canada, Mexico and China is about fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration. In his first term, Chinese companies did not only supply the precursors, but also fentanyl itself. Trump was successful in getting the Chinese to regulate the production and sale of fentanyl in China. However, production shifted to Mexico, with Chinese companies providing the chemicals needed to make fentanyl. In 2019, Trump also threatened Mexico with tariffs unless migration was reduced. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador succumbed to US pressure and deployed the Mexican military to the borders.

Immigration was a major campaign theme during the US presidential election and the tariff threat is only the beginning of a likely ambitious effort to stem the flow of illegal aliens into the US. While the President-Elect arguably has a strong mandate from US voters to enhance border security and deport undocumented immigrants, these policies will pose challenges to many US businesses. As we showed in Trump border policy and immigrant labor supply, food & agriculture and construction are especially vulnerable given the high dependency on undocumented immigrant labor. While there are still many unemployed US citizens who could do the work, most of them do not find the jobs that undocumented immigrants do very attractive. Therefore US businesses that depend on immigrant labor should prepare for possible labor shortages.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 12:05

Boris Johnson Calls For NATO Troops On The Ground In Ukraine Yet Again

After months of rumors surrounding possible peace talks in Turkey that might have ended the war in Ukraine not long after it reignited in 2022, multiple sources confirmed that British Politician and former PM Boris Johnson showed up in Kyiv to dismiss the negotiations and told the Ukrainians "let's just fight".  These sources include David Arahamiya, the leader of Ukraine’s ruling party, Tory MP Nadine Dorries and Vladimir Putin himself.

Putin reiterated in his interview with Tucker Carlson that Russia supports a negotiated settlement with Ukraine, and plans were very much underway to making that happen before Boris Johnson stopped it. https://t.co/85LGRfJZzY

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) February 9, 2024

Johnson continues to deny the peace deal claims and "fact checkers" engage in extensive mental gymnastics to argue that there was no "official deal" put to paper, therefore Johnson didn't sabotage anything.  In other words, if a politician ruins a peace deal in its infancy before it is drafted then he's not culpable for the war that follows. 

The bottom line? Johnson, a prominent British official with ties to NATO, showed up in the middle of early negotiations and told the Ukrainians to fight instead of pursuing peace.  This alone would have given the Ukrainians a false sense of security that NATO forces would intervene and fight for them.

Boris Johnson would go on to promote a surge in military recruitment in the UK, and supported calls for conscription from military officials.  He has also suggested NATO boots on the ground in the region on multiple occasions - A move that would immediately be seen by Russia as an escalation to world war.

In a recent interview with the Daily Telegraph, the former British PM promoted the idea of British forces entering Ukraine as a part of a "peacekeeping plan."  The presence of any NATO country's troops in Ukraine, even those not on the front line, would be seen as a tip-toe towards direct confrontation by the Kremlin.  

In early November, Johnson argued that if Donald Trump pulled US support for Ukraine in order to force a peace deal, Britain might send troops into the fray.  The argument sounds like a thinly veiled threat:  If the US tries to force a peace deal, then Britain will send troops, escalate the war and ensure that no peace is possible.   

Johnson also asserted that if Russia gets the upper hand in the conflict then Britain may deploy it's forces regardless in order to "defend Europe."  Ukraine's eastern defenses are currently being overrun by ongoing Russian attrition tactics.  This reality in combination with Trump's avalanche election win seems to have triggered establishment ghouls into a frenzy of escalation with Joe Biden giving the greenlight on long range missile strikes coordinated directly by NATO forces.   

To be clear, Ukraine is not part of the EU nor is it a member of NATO.  NATO warhawks like Johnson have consistently claimed that Russia's intent is to invade greater Europe (domino effect propaganda similar to the Vietnam War), yet there is still no evidence to support this.  The western media has spent the better part of the conflagration claiming that Russian forces have been chewed up beyond repair in Ukraine; at the same time they suggest Russia somehow has the strength to invade the EU. 

The majority of the US and European public have confirmed time and time again that they will not support direct conflict with Russia.  They will not volunteer to fight in such a war and will not submit to military conscription.  Around 70% of Americans say they prefer negotiations to end the war.  Only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can win and 52% of Ukrainians say they want negotiations and a quick end to the war.   Despite this, establishment politicians continue to ignore the overwhelming calls for peace in Ukraine.        

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 11:05

Epps Loses Defamation Case Against Fox News

Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

Just months after a judge dismissed Nina Jankowicz’s much-hyped defamation lawsuit against Fox, a federal district court judge in Delaware, Judge Jennifer L. Hall, has dismissed Ray Epps’s defamation lawsuit. The Jan. 6 rioter said the network falsely identified him as an FBI informant.

U.S. District Court Judge Jennifer L. Hall granted Fox News’ motion to dismiss the suit.

In the original complaint, Epps made a defamation per se claim and a false light claim.

Epps and his wife have clearly been through a nightmare of threats and innuendo. However, this public controversy was discussed by various networks and the Jan. 6th  Committee. It was also a matter of legitimate public debate and commentary, with people on both sides expressing their views on the evidence and underlying allegations.

The problem for the court was trying to draw a line when coverage and commentary becomes defamation on such subjects. The chilling effect on free speech can be immense. The Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled that tort law could not be used to overcome First Amendment protections for free speech or the free press. The Court sought to create “breathing space” for the media by articulating that standard that now applies to both public officials and public figures. The status imposes the higher standard first imposed in New York Times v. Sullivan for public officials, requiring a showing of “actual malice” where media had actual knowledge of the falsity of a statement or showed reckless disregard whether it was true or false.

Now based in Utah, Epps alleged his life was upended after former Fox host Tucker Carlson repeatedly described him as a federal agent who helped instigate the attack on the Capitol, which was an attempt to stop the certification of the election of Joe Biden.

BREAKING: Ray Epps, the only January 6 protester who actually told people to go into the Capitol, has been officially sentenced to one year probation, $500 restitution, and 100 hours community service.

While many J6 protesters are rotting in jail for non-violent crimes, Epps… pic.twitter.com/qPWwktAPbu

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) January 9, 2024

The breathing space cuts both ways. In reporting on the dismissal of the Epps lawsuit, it is notable that the Associated Press is still referring to Jan. 6 as an “insurrection” rather than a riot. Curiously, when you hit the link on “insurrection,” it goes to an article on the dropping of the Smith case, which notably did not charge Trump or anyone else with insurrection or even incitement. Yet, the AP is still reporting “the insurrection” as a fact.

The dismissal of Jankowicz directly addressed the dangers of using the courts to try to silence your critics. The case backfired on Jankowicz in prompting a court to expressly state that what she has been advocating is censorship. After holding that people are allowed to criticize Jankowicz as protected opinion, the court added:

“I agree that Jankowicz has not pleaded facts from which it could plausibly be inferred that the challenged statements regarding intended censorship by Jankowicz are not substantially true. On the contrary … censorship is commonly understood to encompass efforts to scrutinize and examine speech in order to suppress certain communications.

“The Disinformation Governance Board was formed precisely to examine citizens’ speech and, in coordination with the private sector, identify ‘misinformation,’ ‘disinformation,’ and ‘malinformation.’ … that objective is fairly characterized as a form of censorship.”

Jankowicz previously solicited significant contributions on the promise of this ill-conceived lawsuit. Nevertheless, Jankowicz is still being touted as a hero and enlisted to explain who to combat “disinformation.”

The calls for greater censorship are likely to only increase after the election. However, we have seen figures like Hillary Clinton call on Europeans to force the censorship of Americans.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 10:45

Ukraine Not In Strong Position To Negotiate With Putin, NATO Chief Admits

The last six months has seen more and more Western officials and mainstream media outlets acknowledge reality in Ukraine - that Russian forces are on the advance, with Kiev forces outgunned and most importantly outmanned.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in fresh comments this week admitted the same. He said in a Fox News interview that Ukraine is not in a strong enough position to negotiate an end to the war. At this moment, Rutte explained, there is not enough battlefield leverage to "prevent the Russians from getting what they want."

Image source: NATO

He still expressed a wishful thinking that things might change, though without offering any explanation as to how this will be possible.

"I think that’s crucial that we have a good deal because the whole world will be watching what type of deal will be struck between Russia and Ukraine when it comes to it," Rutte said.

"We have to make sure that Ukraine is in a position of more strength than they are at the moment," Rutte continued, "so that a deal can be struck which is favorable not to the Russians — and therefore to China, North Korea and Iran — because they all will be watching."

Rutte at that point referenced China as watching closely. He said President Xi Jinping in particular is awaiting the outcome. "He’ll be very much interested who comes out on top of this," Rutte said.

"And if it is the Russians, that will pose a threat long term, so we have to make sure that Ukraine is in a position where they can start these talks, and obviously then we have to take it step by step, make sure that Putin comes on board."

But again he expressed that "We have to make sure … that Ukrainians can discuss the future of their country from this position of strength, so that has to be Ukraine to the table."

"But they will only do that when they feel that they can get something out of that," Rutte added, but then admitted, "At this moment, they are really on the back foot."

PROF. JEFFREY SACHS:

‘Trump is absolutely right that the Ukraine war could end in a day. This war will end the moment a US President picks up the phone and says to Putin ‘NATO enlargement was a bad idea’…that’s the end of the war because that’s the whole premise of this war’ pic.twitter.com/6LB6DXNEvu

— Going Underground (@GUnderground_TV) November 27, 2024

"We will be able to get Putin to the table because he will sense that, ultimately, it is in his interest not to continue the fight," the NATO chief said, anticipating the incoming Trump administration.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 10:25

Watch: Billionaire Eats Banana 'Art' He Just Paid $6.2 Million For

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Billionaire Justin Sun, who paid $6.2 million for a banana duct taped to a wall, followed through on his promise by eating the fruit.

Yes, really.

The crypto entrepreneur bought the piece of ‘art’ – ‘Comedian’ by Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, during an auction at Sotherby’s in New York where he outbid six other people.

And if you think Sun consuming the banana was some kind of sardonic troll of the vacuity of the modern art world, think again.

After buying the banana, Sun pretentiously stated, “This is not just a piece of art: it represents a cultural phenomenon that bridges the worlds of art, memes, and the cryptocurrency community.”

JUSTIN SUN GOES BANANAS FOR WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE SNACK

The founder of Tron tucked into the priciest banana in the world after buying the artwork for $6.2 million.

Justin:

“This is not just a piece of art: it represents a cultural phenomenon that bridges the worlds of art,… pic.twitter.com/Zpfi30Kj43

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 29, 2024

While devouring the supposed masterpiece, Sun proclaimed, “It’s much better than other bananas. “It’s really quite good.”

Not to worry, after purchasing the piece of fruit, he was given a certificate of authenticity that instructs him on how to replace the banana given that what remains of it now probably reside in the nearest sewerage plant.

As we highlight in the video below, Sun could have bought about 500 kidney dialysis machines for kids for the same price.

Maurizio Cattelan must be laughing all the way to the bank, given that he can just keep re-producing the ‘art’ and make millions every time.

Listen to the way he described it.

“To me, Comedian was not a joke; it was a sincere commentary and a reflection on what we value. At art fairs, speed and business reign, so I saw it like this: if I had to be at a fair, I could sell a banana like others sell their paintings. I could play within the system, but with my rules. I can’t say how people will react, but I hope these new works will break up the normal viewing habits and open a discussion on what really matters. We are surrounded by conversations based on immaterial structures, social values and hierarchies that we created, but usually we prefer to forget this; it’s like being anaesthetised.”

That’ll be $6.2 million dollars, please.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 10:05

French Govt Collapse Imminent As Le Pen Piles On Pressure Over Budget Vote

While French bond spreads have compressed modestly overnight (as French Finance Minister Antoine Armand announced that he is ready to amend the 2025 budget proposal to avoid a government collapse), they remain extremely elevated (at their highest since the European financial crisis in 2012) as rising tensions threaten the country’s economic stability.

Source: Bloomberg

As Remix News reports, Armand, warned before the upcoming budget debate that the government must make compromises regarding the 2025 budget proposal. The political situation is constantly deteriorating, because the opposition parties in the National Assembly, led by Marine Le Pen of the National Rally, have called for a no-confidence vote if the government does not accept amendments that make a tangible difference to the proposed tax increases.

Armand made headlines in September for asserting that the National Rally party was not a party he would deal with, as it was not part of what he called “the republican arc,” instigating French Prime Minister Michel Barnier to even phone Le Pen to apologize for the comment.

Le Pen, meanwhile, has insisted her budget demands have been long cast aside. 

The budget crisis may have serious consequences for the French economy, with market investors reacting with increased concern, as a result of which the yields on the French bond market have risen. 

Armand has said that the government should avoid unnecessary risk and that the adoption of the budget is now vital for the future of the country.

The discussion of the budget proposal will continue in the National Assembly on Dec. 18, with the outcome of the new amendments still unclear. Armand stated that the government is open to remedying the situation by cutting spending instead of implementing the planned tax increases.

Le Pen has called on the government to institute some €60 billion of adjustments, including a tax moratorium, indexed pensions, and more action to counter migration.

In a post on X, National Party leader Jordan Bardella wrote, “The National Rally has just won a victory by obtaining from Michel Barnier the cancelation of the 3 billion euro tax on electricity. Thanks to our determined action, energy prices would not increase for the French in 2025, if this promise is respected and if it is not financed by other tax increases. We will be vigilant. But we cannot stop there. Other red lines remain.”

Bardella goes on to write that Barnier must abandon demands to have the French pay more for medication, especially when medical costs are covered for illegal migrants. He also wants a moratorium on new taxes and a return to the old pension system.

“A serious crackdown on migration and criminal law must be undertaken, without paying lip service to words and promises: our country can no longer accommodate mass immigration which disrupts its identity and weighs heavily on its public finances. These common sense measures are realistic, quickly applicable and expected by an immense majority of French people. The Prime Minister cannot remain deaf to them. He has a few days left,” wrote Bardella.

But, despite some optimism that Armand and his 'amis' are moving to Le Pen's pals' position, French asset-swap spreads are diverging from those of Europe, indicating that assets in France are increasingly disfavored as fiscal risks persist.

Asset-swap spreads are what you receive if you want to hedge out the funding risk from owning a bond. They therefore capture the non-interest rate risk from a bond, i.e. supply and demand factors and credit risk. French asset swaps have become much more negative as the market factors in more supply and increased credit risk as the country deals with bigger fiscal deficits and political volatility.

But swap spreads in general have been declining in Europe as well as the US for a variety of reasons, such as QT and rising fiscal deficits. Euro swap spreads have generally fallen with French ASW spreads, but they have seen two big divergences: in June after Macron’s surprise election announcement, and now.

A narrowing in the spread differential would be a key sign the market is becoming less skittish on the budgetary outlook.

Le Pen gave PM Barnier until Monday to accede to her budget demands before she decides whether to topple the government.

How do you say "Tick tock!" in French?

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 09:45

Futures Rise As Dollar Slides, Ending 8-Week Winning Streak

US equity futures gained for the second day ahead of a shortened trading session after the Thanksgiving holiday, with Treasuries also rising and the dollar slipping amid mounting (if naive) speculation that president-elect Donald Trump will temper his most extreme trade policies drove the dollar to its biggest weekly loss in three months. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose 0.2%, pointing to modest gains in Friday’s post-holiday trading session on Wall Street. The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.22%, the lowest in more than a month, as cash trading resumed after the Thanksgiving holiday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, ending an 8 week winning streak and heading for its biggest weekly loss in three months. Oil prices oil prices reverse an earlier loss and trade near session highs with WTI now at $69.20, while gold adds $25 to $2660. Bitcoin rises above $96,000. There is nothing on today's macro calendar.

In premarket trading, US semiconductor equipment makers climb after Bloomberg reported that additional US curbs on sales of chip technology to China may stop short of some stricter measures previously considered. Applied Materials shares rise 2.8% and Lam Research climb 3.3% in premarket trading. KLA is also gaining. Japanese and European chip-related stocks mostly gained on Thursday, when the US was closed. Some other notable movers:

• Applied Therapeutics (APLT) shares sink 73% after the biopharmaceutical company’s new drug application for govorestat, a galactosemia treatment, was rejected by the US FDA. RBC Capital Markets downgraded the stock to sector perform from outperform, saying the rejection was disappointing.
• Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) rise 9% after Wedbush analyst Yun Zhong upgraded and assumed the coverage of the biotech firm, giving it an outperform rating while citing additional value of the drug developer’s programs.

Trump’s pick for his Treasury secretary has fueled optimism that tariffs will be measured, boosting US stocks and bonds, and sapping dollar strength. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended a weekly decline to more than 1%, snapping eight weeks of gains. The S&P 500 has already risen 5% in November, on course for its best month since February, and its best year this century...

... as investors plowed $141 billion into US equities, the heaviest inflows for a four-week period on record, according to EPFR data. A handful of tech titans have led 26% year-to-date gains in US stocks on the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts while the American economy continues to chalk up growth.

“We were talking day in and day out about trade tensions in 2019. What happened? The Nasdaq was on a tear. What mattered was the Fed was making a U-turn, real rates went down, and that drove equities,” Max Kettner, multi-asset chief strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “That’s very similar to now — this is still a cutting cycle. It’s a fantastic set-up.”

European stocks were little changed, although miners including Anglo American Plc outperformed, boosted by optimism that China will adopt further measures to stimulate its economy. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1% as telecoms and utilities sectors were the biggest laggards. Miners outperform, gaining on the back of strong iron ore prices that received a boost from new China stimulus hopes. Here are the most notable movers:

• Anglo American shares rise as much as 3.3% after Jefferies upgraded the mining firm to buy from hold, citing that shares are trading at a discount and its mergers and acquisitions potential.
• FLSmidth and Aalberts shares gain after both stocks were double-upgraded at Bank of America to buy in a review of the European industrials sector.
• Delivery Hero shares gain as much as 1.6% after the food delivery firm set the price for its Middle Eastern unit’s initial public offering at the top of the range.
• Spire Healthcare shares jump as much as 10% after Economic Times reported that Narayana Health is in talks with some Spire shareholders about buying a controlling stake.
• Elior and Accor shares rise as both stocks are upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan in a review of the broker’s leisure coverage.
• Norma shares surge as much as 23%, the most on record, after its management board announced plans to initiate a sale process for the global business activities of its Water Management unit.
• L’Oreal shares fall as much as 1.1% as Deutsche Bank cuts its price target on the cosmetics maker to a Street low.
• Telefonica and Santander shares fall, leading losses among Brazil-exposed Spanish companies fall after the Brazilian real tumbled to record lows.
• Swiss Life shares fall as much as 1.5% after ZKB cut its rating on the Swiss insurer to market perform from overweight after a “massive outperformance” in share price.
• Bank Pekao shares drop as much as 2.5%, after a report that it may buy a 31.9% stake in Alior Bank from PZU. Such a purchase would be detrimental for Pekao’s dividend potential, analysts say.
• Elia shares climbs 3% after the Belgian electricity company upgraded some of its earnings guidance for the full year.
• Enea shares drops as much as 5.7% as Poland’s 3rd-largest utility plans significant increase in spending in its new strategy for 2025-2035.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also edged higher as gauges in China rallied on expectations of greater economic support at a key policy meeting in December. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%. Speculation that authorities will release further stimulus is growing ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, where the nation’s top leaders will lay out economic priorities for the coming year. Indian stocks also rose. Elsewhere, Korea’s Kospi Index fell 2% after the central bank’s surprise interest-rate cut on Thursday spurred concerns about economic growth. Japanese benchmarks also dropped as the yen strengthened on stronger-than-expected inflation reading out of Tokyo.

“The market is evaluating the CPI data as making the possibility of a BOJ rate hike in December slightly higher than before,” pushing up the yen and weighing on export-oriented stocks, said Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, heading for its biggest weekly loss in three months.  The yen tops the G-10 FX leader board, rising 1% against the greenback and pulling USD/JPY down to around 150 after Tokyo inflation rose more than expected.

In rates, Treasury yields also declined at the start of a shortened US trading session that includes month-end index rebalancing at 1 p.m. New York time, estimated to extend its duration by 0.11 year. Yields are 3bp-6bp lower across the curve, 5- to 30-year at weekly lows, 10-year at 4.21%; 10- and 30-year fell below 200-day average levels for first time since late October. The US treasury market is headed for a monthly gain as benchmark yields have retreated from multimonth highs reached in the days following the US presidential election on Nov. 5; market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December have rebounded to nearly 60%. As US markets reopen after Thursday’s holiday, yields also are lower in most euro-zone bond markets for second-straight day. German 10-year bonds hold higher after euro-area inflation rose in line with forecasts although shorter-dated maturities underperform. French bond spreads widen slightly after far-right leader Le Pen gave PM Barnier until Monday to accede to her budget demands before she decides whether to topple the government.

In commodities, oil prices reverse an earlier loss and trade near session highs with WTI now at $69.20, while gold adds $25 to $2660. Bitcoin rises above $96,000.

Friday’s early close times include Sifma’s recommendation of a 2 p.m. halt for trading of USD-denominated cash bonds, while Bloomberg index pricing is slated for 1 p.m. (vs 4 p.m. normally), aligning with early close for US stocks. Looking at today's calendar, there is are no US economic data or speeches by Fed officials are scheduled, and no new corporate bond offerings are expected

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 6,033.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 506.73
• MXAP up 0.2% to 183.45
• MXAPJ little changed at 576.49
• Nikkei down 0.4% to 38,208.03
• Topix down 0.2% to 2,680.71
• Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 19,423.61
• Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,326.46
• Sensex up 1.0% to 79,862.53
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 8,436.23
• Kospi down 1.9% to 2,455.91
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.12%
• Euro up 0.1% to $1.0567
• Brent Futures down 0.5% to $72.89/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,660.17
• US Dollar Index down 0.13% to 105.91

Top Overnight News

• Mexico’s president spoke to Trump Wed afternoon, and both characterized the conversation as positive, suggesting a significant easing in tensions just days after Trump’s tariff threat (Trump used words like “wonderful” and “productive” to describe the talk). NYT
• Canada’s government is to bolster its investment in border security after Donald Trump threatened to impose steep tariffs over illegal immigration and drug smuggling across the US-Canada frontier. FT
• Trump could name a tough enforcer, Gail Slater, to lead the DOJ’s antitrust team, the latest indication that the incoming administration might not be as aggressive with its approach to deregulation as some hope. FT
• Japan’s Tokyo CPI for Nov spikes to +2.6% on a headline basis (up from +1.8% in Oct and above the Street’s +2.2% forecast) while the core number ticked up to +1.9% (vs. +1.8% in Oct and inline w/the Street). RTRS
• South Korea’s central bank surprised markets Wed evening with a 25bp rate cut (the expectation was it would leave rates unchanged) and lowered its growth outlook for the country. WSJ
• China has purged a senior admiral in the latest example of an anticorruption campaign being carried out in the country’s military. WSJ
• China’s bond market grapples with signs of “Japanification” as entrenched deflation sparks concerns about an extended period of tepid growth. FT
• Eurozone’s Nov CPI is inline w/the Street on a headline basis at +2.3% (up from +2% in Oct) while core runs a bit cooler than anticipated at +2.7% (flat vs. Oct and below vs. the Street’s +2.8% forecast). BBG
• ECB’s Lagarde urges the EU to negotiate w/the incoming Trump administration over tariffs rather than engage in a destructive trade war. FT

Thanksgiving News Recap

• OPEC+ reportedly discussing delaying oil output hike for Q1 2025, is to hold further talks on policy in coming days after delaying the meeting, according to Reuters citing sources. Prior to this, the meeting was delayed to the 5th from the 1st of December.
• RBA Governor Bullock says policy needs to remain restrictive. Expects it will take a little longer for inflation to settle at target in Australia. At present, we judge that conditions in the labour market remain tighter than what would be consistent with low and stable inflation.
• ECB's Knot says they must take a close look at supply shocks to the economy and react forcefully if there is a risk of expectations de-anchoring.
• ECB's Villeroy says negative rates should remain in the ECB's toolkit. Interest rates should clearly go to the neutral rate, would not exclude going below neutral rate in the future.
• ECB's Wunsch in an interview with Nikkei says he sees the possibility of continuing to cut rates in a gradual manner; would not send good signal to accelerate pace of rate cuts.
• French Finance Minister Armand reaffirms France may make concession on electricity taxes to avoid any ensuing "storm" that could hit financial markets; says better to have a modified budget than no budget. Just prior to this remark the French 10yr yield briefly matched its Greek counterpart

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed albeit with a slightly positive bias in the absence of a lead from Wall Street owing to the Thanksgiving Day holiday and as participants digested a slew of data releases into month-end. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in defensives, finance and tech with the latter not helped after the Australian Senate passed the social media ban for under-16s, while ANZ Bank also pushed back its forecast for the first RBA rate cut to May next year from February and only sees two 25bp cuts vs a prior view of three cuts. Nikkei 225 mildly declined with headwinds from recent currency strength after firmer-than-expected Tokyo inflation, while participants also digested the latest Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures which both fell short of estimates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned despite the lack of obvious catalysts and shrugged off the PBoC's net daily liquidity drain, while participants await tomorrow's official PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a further improvement.

Top Asian News

• China's Finance Ministry said tariffs imposed by China on some US goods will continue to be exempted until 28th February 2025.
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers said RBA reforms are expected to apply after the February meeting.
• RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby said they clearly signalled another 50bps cut in February and the New Zealand economy is turning a corner.
• Japan FX intervention amounted to 0 from Oct 30 - Nov 27.
• German Foreign Minister will visit China from Dec 2-3rd, according to China's Foreign Ministry.

European bourses trade around the unchanged mark, Stoxx 600 U/C; specifics light aside from Flash EZ HICP. Sectors mostly in the red with Autos & Parts lagging to end a bruising week. Basic Resources bucks the trend given metals and Anglo American (+3.4%) amid speculation in the FT that BHP could come back with a fresh bid. Stateside, futures firmer ES +0.3% with the RTY +0.9% outperforming. Specifics light and the docket sparse on a limited post-Thanksgiving session, as such the macro narrative may not change significantly. MSFT -0.5% after the FTC launched an antitrust investigation while unconfirmed reports indicate MSTR +4.5% could join the Nasdaq 100.

Top European News

• German government plans about EUR 2bln in new chip subsidies, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB announces changes to the Eurosystem collateral framework to foster greater harmonization.
• BoE says the CCyB is held at 2%.

FX

• USD was knocked lower by the stronger JPY. Today's US macro narrative is likely to remain unaltered due to the early close. DXY has been as low as 105.61 with the next potential level of support via the 12th low @ 105.48.
• EUR trivially firmer vs. the USD. Headline EZ inflation in-line, super-core a touch softer than Exp. ECB pricing was little changed; 25bps seen at 84% for Dec. EUR/USD went as high as 1.0597 in early trade before running out of steam ahead of the 1.06 mark.
• JPY leading on account of firmer Tokyo inflation metrics. BoJ Dec hike priced at 56%. USD/JPY briefly crossed below 150 for the first time since October 21st with a session low @ 149.55.
• GBP briefly made its way back onto a 1.27 handle vs. the USD; UK macro drivers light. Cable has been as high as 1.2749 with the next upside target coming via the 13th November peak @ 1.2769.
• NZD outpacing its antipodean peer; has been gaining since RBNZ on Wednesday. NZD/USD has moved back onto a 0.59 handle and above its 21DMA @ 0.5909. AUD/USD is holding above the 0.65 mark.

Fixed Income

• Benchmarks generally firmer with specifics outside the EZ light and expected to be limited ahead given the partial post-Thanksgiving closures. Stateside, cash trade has resumed but, unsurprisingly, is limited with yields softer across the curve and a modest flattening bias in play.
• Bunds firmer by around 15 ticks, unreactive to Flash EZ HICP which printed broadly as expected while the super core and services Y/Y came in slightly cooler; pricing points to an 85% chance of a 25bps Dec. cut.
• OATs in focus, though the OAT-Bund yield spread remains shy of the 90bps multi-year peak from earlier in the week. As it stands, we are largely waiting for a decision from Le Pen on French budget as a whole.
• A morning of gains for Gilts which opened in the green and extended to a 96.10 peak shortly after with specifics light and fundamentals behind the move limited. Thereafter, Gilts settled slightly but have since surpassed the above peak by six ticks.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are diverging, on account of the lack of settlement due to Thanksgiving. Specifics today have been somewhat light in European hours, with the docket ahead also limited.
• For the most part, we are awaiting updates on OPEC+ and the Lebanon ceasefire. Benchmarks towards the lower-end of c. USD 1/bbl parameters but, as has been the case throughout all of the week, remain in proximity to familiar ranges.
• Spot gold is in the green, benefitted this morning on overnight punchy geopolitical rhetoric around the ceasefire and as the USD was under pressure.
• Base metals firmer but with action modest, as has been the case for much of the week. Chinese PMIs on the weekend the next major catalyst.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he asked the army to prepare for a strong war in Lebanon if it violates the agreement, according to Al Arabiya. It was also reported that Israel’s Chief of Staff said they must implement the agreement strongly so that residents of the north can return to their homes, while IDF said they detected suspicious operations that posed a threat to Israel on the part of Hezbollah in what is considered a violation of the ceasefire.
• Israeli military said Lebanese residents are forbidden to move south to a line of several southern villages, according to Reuters.
• Iran informed the IAEA it intends to feed uranium feedstock into the eight IR-6 centrifuge cascades recently installed at Fordow to enrich to up to 5% purity, while the agency shared with Iran the changes required to the intensity of inspection activities following the commission of those cascades. Furthermore, IAEA verified that Iran had completed the installation of the last two IR-2M centrifuge cascades in a batch of 18 at its underground Natanz plant and intends to install one cascade of up to 1,152 IR-6 centrifuges at Natanz PFEP to enrich up to 5% purity, according to the IAEA report seen by Reuters.
• Senior Iranian official says Tehran expects "tough and serious" talks with E3 in Geneva.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russian air defences downed 30 Ukrainian drones in the southern Rostov region with some damage on the ground reported, according to the regional Governor.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian President Putin’s promotion of the Oreshnik missile shows he does not want to end the war or allow others to try, while he added that Putin's actions are intended to boost tension and disrupt moves by Trump on the war after his inauguration.
• US President Biden said on Thursday that Russia's overnight aerial attack against Ukraine was outrageous and that Russian attacks serve as a reminder of the urgency and importance of supporting Ukrainian people in their defence, according to Reuters.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Defence Minister Belousov is visiting North Korea, according to agencies cited by Reuters.
• Chinese and Russian militaries conducted a ninth joint strategic air patrol in relevant airspace over the Sea of Japan on Friday, according to Chinese state media.
• Eleven Chinese and Russian military aircraft intruded South Korea's air defence zone and South Korea launched air force jets in a tactical manoeuvre against the intrusion, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• Nothing scheduled

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Amsterdam and welcome to Black Friday, although I can't help think Black Friday starts in July these days! Whilst US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, there was still plenty happening over the last 24 hours, with European markets bouncing back after their recent slide. Several factors were supportive, including some lower-than-expected inflation numbers out of Germany, which led to growing confidence that the ECB would keep cutting rates. Moreover, there were also promising signs on the French budget situation, as the government sounded open to concessions in order to pass the bill, so that helped French assets to recover too. Overall, that meant it was a fairly positive day, with the STOXX 600 up +0.46%, whilst 10yr bund yields (-3.4bps) fell to an 8-week low.

In terms of the French situation, the day had started off pretty negatively, as yields on 10yr French debt briefly exceeded the 10yr Greek yield for the first time on record. But they then started to recover, as Finance minister Antoine Armand sounded open to concessions possibly in order to avoid the government being toppled. He said that “it’s better to work on a budget that is not exactly the same, otherwise we leap into the unknown.” Later in the day, Prime Minister Barnier then said that he wouldn’t raise taxes on electricity, which is something that Marine Le Pen’ had criticised. So that was seen as positive for the chances that the government would survive, and the Franco-German 10yr spread ended the day down -4.1bps at 82bps. Even so, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally have made further budget demands, so the situation is far from resolved just yet.

The bond rally then got further support from the latest German inflation data, which surprised on the downside of consensus. That showed HICP inflation remaining at +2.4% in November (vs. +2.6% expected), so that was seen as positive for the prospects of ECB rate cuts and investors dialled up the likelihood of a 50bp ECB rate in December, with the probability moving up from 15% on Wednesday to 18% by the close yesterday. Moreover, there were also comments from the ECB’s Villeroy that sounded open to a larger 50bp cut at the December meeting. He said that “Optionality should remain open on the size of the cut”, so clearly not ruling out a larger move. And in turn, that helped sovereign bond yields move lower across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-3.4bps) and BTPs (-6.3bps) both falling back.

This backdrop was also supportive for equities across Europe, with all the major indices moving higher on the day. By the close, the STOXX 600 was up +0.46%, with tech stocks leading the way. Germany’s DAX (+0.85%) was another outperformer, whilst other indices including France’s CAC 40 (+0.51%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.51%) posted a solid advance of their own. By contrast, the main underperformer was the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.08%). Meanwhile in the US, markets were closed for the day, but equity futures were consistently positive throughout the European session as well.

Asian equity markets are seeing reasonable divergence with the KOSPI (-1.24%) the biggest underperformer led by declines in large-cap tech companies following yesterday’s surprise 25bps rate cut by the BOK as the economy stalled and inflation slowed more rapidly than policymakers predicted. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.44%) is also trading lower after Yen strength on strong inflation data. Chinese stocks are outperforming with the CSI (+2.01%) leading gains followed by the Shanghai Composite (+1.59%) and the CSI (+1.29%) after China extended tariff waivers on some US goods, indicating that China likely isn't ready to escalate ahead of Trump. S&P 500 (+0.31%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) futures are higher and 10yr US yields are around -3bps lower after reopening post the holiday.

Early morning data showed that Tokyo inflation accelerated more than expected in November, rising +2.6% y/y (v/s +2.2% expected), picking up sharply from the +1.8% seen last month. At the same time, core CPI climbed +2.2% from a year earlier (+2.0% expected) in November, as against a +1.8% increase last month, largely on a winding down of energy subsidies. Core-core was in line at 1.9% which is the most important for the BoJ but the firmer slant to the overall data increases the chances of a hike in December.

Following the data release, the yen appreciated +1.05%, to trade at 149.97 against the dollar, hitting its strongest level in 5 weeks. Separate data showed Japanese retail sales rose +1.6% in October YoY, missing expectations for growth of +2.0%, up from an upwardly revised +0.7% gain in September.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator remained broadly stagnant at 95.8 in November (vs. 95.2 expected), remaining in a similar zone where it’s spent the entirety of 2024. We also had the Euro Area M3 money supply data for October, which showed a pickup to +3.4% year-on-year as expected, the highest since December 2022.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI release for November, UK mortgage approvals for October, German unemployment for November and retail sales for October, and Canada’s Q3 GDP. From central banks, we’ll get the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Review, and also hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Nagel. Finally, a general election is being held in Ireland.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 08:34

US Chip Equipment Makers Rise Amid Reports of "Watered-Down" China Curbs

US semiconductor equipment makers rose in premarket trading following a Bloomberg News report indicating that an additional round of US restrictions on semiconductor equipment sales to China might be less severe than previously anticipated. 

People familiar with trade policy said the new restrictions could debut as soon as next week. The measures were part of a multi-month deliberation by top US officials, negotiations with allies in Japan and the Netherlands, and lobbying by US chip equipment makers who've cautioned that stricter measures would harm the industry. 

Here are the key differences between the latest proposal and earlier drafts, according to Bloomberg, citing those familiar with trade policy:

The first is which Chinese companies the US would add to a trade restriction list. The US had previously considered sanctioning six suppliers to Huawei Technologies Co. — the telecom giant at the center of China's tech industry — and officials are aware of at least a half dozen more, the people said. But they now plan to add only some of those Huawei suppliers to the entity list, with the notable omission of ChangXin Memory Technologies Inc., which is trying to develop AI memory chip technology.

As a result of the report, Japanese and European chip-related stocks gained on the news on Thursday, while US markets closed for Thanksgiving.

In premarket trading in New York, Applied Materials rose 2.5%, Lam Research increased 3%, and KLA moved higher by 4.3%. 

"The watered-down rules are a partial win for the three firms, which have argued against unilateral US restrictions on key Chinese companies, saying this would put them at an unfair disadvantage to Tokyo Electron and ASML, whose governments have not yet agreed to the toughest restrictions on sales to China," Bloomberg said. 

On Thursday, Citi analyst Kevin Chen told clients that the news report was a "near-term positive relief to investor concerns of escalating export controls." 

Chen continued, "Still, there could be future restrictions under the Trump administration next year and we expect China's semiconductor localization to continue to positively impact supply chain companies' share prices." 

Also, watch other chip stocks, including Nvidia, Intel, Qualcomm, ARM Holdings, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Super Micro Computer, and AMD. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 07:45

Whitney Tilson Announces He's Running For Mayor Of NYC

Whitney Tilson, famous for blowing up two hedge funds before becoming a newsletter writer, has announced he is running for mayor of New York City.

Tilson fired off an email and press campaign last week where that led with him complimenting himself for running a Tough Mudder: "I just filed to run for mayor of NYC. Why? Those who know me well might think I’m a glutton for punishment and, because I wasn’t able to run my annual 24-hour World’s Toughest Mudder sufferfest earlier this month, I’m doing this instead!"

The email eventually got to the point, stating: "But seriously, I’m deeply concerned – and a majority of New Yorkers agree – that our beloved city is headed in the wrong direction. I am committed to turning our city around and have many bold ideas for how to do so."

Tilson says his 5 biggest priorities are:

1. Cut violent crime by 50%;
2. Address the cost-of-living crisis, much of it driven by housing costs and unnecessary regulation, and put more money in working people’s pockets;
3. Rein in out-of-control spending by eliminating corruption, reducing inefficiency and delivering better services for less;
4. Improve our public schools; and
5. Prioritize citizens (and permanent legal residents) in the allocation of city resources.

And of course, Tilson also introduced the news by releasing a 16 page letter and posting a 32-minute interview with none other than Don Lemon, which you can watch above. No word yet on whether either included ruminations about his recent colonoscopy. 

Last time we checked in on Tilson people on social media were scrambling to try and figure out ways to get off his mailing list...

As a reminder, Tilson famously blew up closed Kase Capital Management in 2017 (5 years after shuttering its predecessor T2) after getting his ass handed to him by the market "sustained underperformance". 

“Reporting sustained underperformance to you was making me miserable,” Tilson wrote to his investors in 2017. He continued: "I couldn’t in good conscience continue to manage your money unless I had a high degree of confidence that I could turn things around within a reasonable time frame."

Recall, Tilson had relaunched his first fund, T2 Partners, as Kase Capital in 2012 after losing 24.9% in 2011.

And so if you thought financial newsletter spam and political ad spam on their own were each forces to be reckoned with, imagine when they combine...

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 06:55

Minimizing The State As Co-Parent

Authored by Larry Sand via American Greatness,

On Oct. 31, Brittany Patterson, a 41-year-old Georgia mother, was arrested and accused of endangering her son - all because the unsupervised 10-year-old walked less than a mile away from home. Patterson told NBC News in an interview, “It’s not a super dangerous or even dangerous-at-all stretch of road. I wasn’t terrified for him or scared for his safety.”

Nevertheless, the sheriff’s department went to the family’s home, where Patterson was handcuffed, arrested, booked on suspicion of reckless conduct, and forced to post $500 bail.

Parenting expert Dawn Friedman responded to the arrest by declaring, “We used to allow children some freedoms that we no longer allow them. And I don’t think that’s to their benefit or to ours.”

Lenore Skenazy, the founder of Free-Range Kids, weighed in. “The crime was that she didn’t know where her kid was for a little while because she’d left them at home. And to her surprise, he didn’t stay home. It’s just so normal. And to make that into a crime is insane.”

Sadly, this case of a government body superseding parents is anything but unique.

Government-run schools have way overstepped their bounds all too often, becoming a child’s co-parent. A good example is California, where AB 1955 was voted into law in July. This outrageous legislation bars school districts from requiring staff to notify parents if their child decides to change their gender.

In a similar vein, the San Francisco school district has determined that teachers don’t have to notify parents before teaching intimate gender identity lessons.

The Turner School District in Kansas City let a 4-year-old preschooler take home Jacobs New Dress, a picture book in which “a little boy wears girls’ clothes and even competes with his friend Emily to be a princess.” (It’s no secret that there is an effort by LGBTQ groups to push gender identity dogma on schoolchildren nationwide, and all too often, the government is a willing ally.)

“Satan Clubs” are popping up all over the country. In Bakersfield, CA—a fairly conservative part of the state—the leader of the after-school club asserted that devil worship shouldn’t be a problem, explaining that he felt the need to counter “Christian-based clubs.”

What can parents do about this?

School choice is one way to escape public schools, and indeed, parental freedom continues to expand. While there were setbacks in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kentucky this past Election Day—mostly due to poorly written laws and being outspent—Florida, Arizona, Utah, and Ohio either created universal or near-universal private school choice programs or expanded existing programs to be universal or near-universal during this past legislative session.

As Michael McShane, director of national research at EdChoice, noted after the election, “Voters had a chance to make their voices heard on what they thought about that (school choice) last week. In every case, the legislative majorities that voted these programs into existence were returned.”

In Texas, several GOP wins in the state’s House of Representatives on Election Day will expand Republicans’ existing majority, giving Gov. Greg Abbott an estimated 87 of 150 seats in the lower chamber. When lawmakers reconvene in January, that should give him the votes needed to put forth legislation offering a universal voucher or education savings account—a proposal many Democrats and rural Republican lawmakers have rejected in past legislative sessions.

Additionally, beginning in the 2025-26 school year, the Georgia Promise Scholarship will provide $6,500 per eligible student. Students can qualify if they live in an area with a low-performing school, as determined by the Governor’s Office of Student Achievement, and meet certain other conditions.

Many Hispanic voters favor school choice. NBC political commentator Chuck Todd specifically credited school choice for record Republican gains among Latino voters. In fact, choice policies garner support from more than two-thirds of Hispanic parents.

Homeschooling is another option for parents. Brian Ray, president of the National Home Education Research Institute (NHERI), declares that there are about 3.2 million students educated at home in the U.S.

Barbie Rivera, author of Enough Is Enough!, is a case in point. Her journey began in 1991 when her six-year-old son was erroneously labeled as “mentally handicapped” by his public school. Knowing this diagnosis was erroneous, Rivera started homeschooling her son and eventually established her own school.

But what if a family cannot homeschool?

One scenario would be a single mom who must work to support herself and her child and can’t afford a private school.

The choice for her, if available, would be a microschool, which is much more affordable than a traditional public or private school, because it doesn’t require expensive buildings and a large staff.

These tiny schools, with a median student body size of 15-30, have been described as a modern version of the one-room schoolhouse, where children of varying ages receive personalized instruction from a teacher in the same room. At this time, about 1.5 million children attend one of the country’s roughly 95,000 microschools, roughly the same number who study at Catholic schools, according to National Microschooling Center CEO Dan Soifer.

Prenda, a microschool support outfit, has helped over 1,000 inspiring adults start microschools, which house nearly 10,000 students.

Florida is the national leader in microschooling. State lawmakers backed looser rules for establishing them as part of a sweeping education law that went into effect in July. The policy change allows private schools to use existing space at places like movie theaters and churches without having to go through local governments for approval. The shift gives these private schools access to thousands of buildings, opening the door for new education options to emerge without them having to endure potentially heavy rezoning costs. This provision could become a blueprint for other states that are looking to expand private school options.

Ryan Delk, CEO and founder of Primer, a microschooling company with 23 schools in Florida and Arizona that pushed for the law, states, “This is the silent friction point that has existed for years that no one could figure out how to solve.”

Whether it is arresting parents for letting their kids roam around the neighborhood unescorted by an adult or teaching a 4-year-old boy that it’s okay for him to wear a dress, we must minimize the role of the state in our lives. Not sending children to government-run schools is an excellent place to start, and microschools are a worthy option.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 06:30

How Important Is The Holiday Season For US Retailers?

Conventional wisdom says that the weeks leading up to Christmas are the most important time of the year for retailers in the United States.

As Statista's Felix Richter details below, according to the National Retail Federation, Americans are going to spend between $979 and $989 billion during November and December this year, with average spending for gifts and other holiday-related items expected to amount to $902 per consumer.

You will find more infographics at Statista

But how reliant are retailers on a successful holiday season? Can two months really make or break an entire year?

Well, it depends.

According to retail sales figures published by the U.S. Census Bureau, some types of retailers are more reliant on holiday season sales than others.

If retail sales were distributed evenly throughout the year, the holiday season, commonly defined as November and December, would account for 2/12 or 16.7 percent of the year’s total sales.

As our chart illustrates, most retailers’ holiday sales clock in way above that benchmark though.

Hobby, toy and game stores for example generated 26.2 percent of their annual sales in the last two months of 2023, which is not surprising considering that toys, games and hobby supplies are popular Christmas gifts.

Across all categories, the holiday season is not as important as one might think though. Last year, November and December accounted for 18.4 percent of total retail sales in the United States. There are even some retailers that don't look forward to the holiday period as it delivers subpar results. Those include car dealerships, gas stations, office supply stores and building material and supplies dealers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 05:45

Time For Starmer To Come Clean About What Net-Zero Means: Rationing, Blackouts, & Travel Restrictions In The Next Five Years

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

Earlier this week the Labour backbencher and Chairman of the U.K. Parliament’s Energy Committee Bill Esterson noted that people will have to adjust their habits to meet Net Zero emission goals for 2030. Such honesty, emerging as it does from the Parliament of Net Zero nodding donkeys, is to be applauded. As far as it goes. Try a 30% reduction in energy demand. After 2030, consider that all beef, lamb and dairy will be banned and “replaced by new diets”. Then there is a massive 45% cut in most common building materials such as cement, along with a similar reduction in road freight traffic. The attack on farming will be remorseless with fertiliser restriction halving “direct emission” from the soil. To sum up: widespread rationing and blackouts along with food, holiday and travel restrictions, all within about 60 months.

Look at what they fund and write and whom they consult, not what they say, is the best advice to counter all the whoppers that are being told about Net Zero. Sir Keir Starmer’s statement at the recent COP29 that he didn’t want to tell people how to live their lives can only be explained by noting it came from a British Prime Minister who has difficulty telling a woman from a man. Thankfully we have the Government-funded U.K. FIRES project to give us an honest heads-up on the near-term implications of Net Zero. All of the substantial reductions in energy, food and industrial materials mentioned above arise from its “pragmatic approach”. Its evidence-based conclusions rely on technologies that are available today. It excludes processes such as carbon capture and hydrogen that have yet to be proven at meaningful scale.

Its conclusions warm the hearts of the most committed green ideologues. Its reports also happen to be the most honest representation of the horrors that await if the Net Zero fantasy ever becomes a reality.

By 2028 a total of seven million heat pumps will need to be installed and massive retrofits undertaken in domestic homes. Meanwhile, all rented and non-domestic properties will need to be EPC A rated by 2030. The desire to “manage land use for Net Zero emissions” means a massive cut in chemical fertilisers, so expect food supply to fall off a cliff.

U.K. FIRES notes, correctly, that there is “insufficient time for the planning, development and construction of new large-scale infrastructure to contribute to the 2030 target”. Again correctly, it is observed that increased use of wind and solar power creates a problem with intermittency. “Eventually, this must be addressed by either demand-shifting or storage,” it states. Storage at scale is more or less impossible with current technology, and another word for “demand-shifting” is rationing. To enforce these consumption restraints across the broad range of modern industrial lifestyles, a “whole society” approach must be mobilised.

U.K. FIRES received a £5 million grant from the British Government and its warnings – or should that be wishes – about 2030 are contained in a report called ‘Minus 45’ prepared ahead of the Glasgow COP26 in 2021. It is based on a U.K. Government promise to reduce carbon emissions by 45% from 2018 to 2030. Its recommendations are relevant today, not least because Starmer tried to curry favour at the recent COP29 in Baku by promising to reduce emissions further.

That would be the COP29 conference that made great progress in destroying the system of bribes paid out as so-called climate aid to developing countries to stop them developing with the aid of hydrocarbons. Nobody knows who will pay for a promised £1.3 trillion a year by 2035, not least because President Trump will sweep away any American commitment with a stroke of the executive pen come January 20th. Helpfully, if anyone cares enough to move from lip service to actual action, creative climate accounting is still possible. A requirement to ban the construction of coal-fired power stations was removed from an early draft and it failed to make it into the final communiqué. This will no doubt please the Japanese who backed the building of the Matarbari ultra-supercritical coal-fired power station in Bangladesh on the grounds that it used Japanese technology to generate more energy with less coal. At COP29, diplomacy was “truly the art of agreeing to nothing”, notes David Wojick from CFACT.

The shamble at COP demonstrates that the world is moving away from the idea that hydrocarbons can be removed from a modern economy. But an accident of recent electoral politics has left Britain with a fanatical Government of Net Zero zealots. The anti-working class Labour party was returned to power with a popular vote count less than its losing Marxist leader obtained in 2019. The U.K. FIRES work demonstrates what lies in store. A resurgent America bounding ahead on cheap energy and unleashed entrepreneurial spirits will contrast with its European allies shutting down industrial manufacturing in pursuit of an increasing unpopular state-mandated doomsday cult.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 05:00

Satellite Analysis Shows Enormity Of Secretive Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude To China

A recent report in Bloomberg has collected and analyzed five years of satellite images monitoring the South China Sea off Malaysia to detail something which should come as no surprise: Iran and China's sanction-busting activity regarding Iranian oil exports has been going strong.

The working assumption of the report is that it is Washington's responsibility - and that of its global allies - to better monitor and enforce sanctions. Bloomberg is essentially calling on American Empire to better enforce its stranglehold on the Islamic Republic. But this is precisely what President-elect Donald Trump is vowing to do when he enters the Oval Office in January.

Trump's pledged 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran is likely to have huge repercussions for Beijing as well, given as the world's biggest buyer of oil China would face a squeeze on its flow of cheap Iranian crude to its shores. Iranian crude has been estimated to make up about 13% of its supply imports.

Via Associated Press

Trump's national security advisor pick, Mike Walz, has pledged to stop or greatly reduce Iran's petroleum revenue, which the US says will have positive benefits for the Ukraine and Gaza wars from a US policy perspective.

He said the incoming administration will strongly engage China toward reducing its purchases of Iranian oil. But the aforementioned Bloomberg investigation shows that business is booming.

"Forty miles east of the Malaysian peninsula sits the world’s largest gathering point for dark fleet tankers. Aging ships, often operating under flags of convenience and without insurance, come here daily to transfer cargo away from prying eyes. It’s how billions of dollars of sanctioned Iranian oil finds its way to China annually — even though the country, officially, hasn’t imported a drop in more than two years," the report begins.

Bloomberg graphic showing area off Malaysia which forms key hub of clandestine Iranian crude transfers at sea.

"A Bloomberg analysis of nearly five years of satellite images from the hotspot shows the vast size of the shadow industry that’s developed as the US has tightened its sanctions on Iran," the report continues.

"It’s impossible to gauge precisely how much oil is moving via this channel. But even making conservative assumptions about tanker size, the data suggest some 350 million barrels of oil changed hands in this hotspot in the first nine months of this year," Bloomberg speculates.

"Taking into account the average oil price for 2024 and the discount applied to sanctioned crude, that amounts to more than $20 billion. The true value is likely far higher."

"Traders and shippers put the scarcity of Iranian supply down to the broadening of US sanctions in October to include more dark fleet tankers plying the Iran-China trade. That move has crimped the number of vessels available for ship-to-ship transfers."https://t.co/X6DqTiLYQf

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) November 28, 2024

One approach the Trump administration could take is to go after those Chinese companies involved in the 'illicit' trade through secondary sanctions: 

For Tehran, in need of revenue and desperately short of willing buyers, the South China Sea gambit is a means of survival. For China, which isn’t bound by and doesn’t recognize US-imposed curbs on Iran, the gymnastics of this network of intermediaries and shell company-owned vessels offers a way for its small refineries to access cheap oil. It also conveniently shields key Chinese corporations from secondary sanctions. (The US can restrict or exclude entirely access to its financial system for any company or person found trading with Iran.)

The government of Malaysia appears to have been looking the other way as well:

The maritime hub is a direct threat to Western efforts to curb revenue going to Tehran, Moscow and Caracas and an illustration of why sanctions are so hard to enforce. US President-elect Donald Trump has said he plans to increase pressure on Iran upon returning to office, but these extensive networks that move dark oil around the globe typically operate without the overt involvement of large entities. The situation was a source of frustration even for the current US administration, which called on Malaysia to do more to tackle gaps such as this one, with little success.

Bloomberg graphic

As for these failed "Western efforts" at enforcement, Washington, London, Brussels and Paris might just have to face up to the reality that they cannot control all trade which happens in the world. When they go 'imperial' against the Global South, these countries will push back harder, only finding better avenues and ways to navigate, to thwart and circumvent sanctions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 04:15