Zero Hedge

Stocks Surge On Small Drop In Initial Jobless Claims; Continuing Claims Hits 33-Month High

Stocks Surge On Small Drop In Initial Jobless Claims; Continuing Claims Hits 33-Month High

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell from 12-month highs at 249k to 233k last week...

Source: Bloomberg

The non-seasonally-adjusted claims data plunged and is basically unchanged over one and two years...

Source: Bloomberg

...as it appears the Texas storm impact is fading...

Source: Bloomberg

With Michigan and Texas dominating the drop in initial claims...

But, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.875mm Americans - the highest since Nov 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

...and smoothing for the week to week noise - the 4-week moving average of initial claims also reached a new cycle high.

One key thing to note that we warned about...

Is this bad news or good news?

Stocks seem to think 'good' news.

Imagine what happens next week if CPI is hotter than expected?

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 08:36

Judge Tosses Mexico's $10 Billion Lawsuit For 6 Of 8 Named American Gun-Makers

Judge Tosses Mexico's $10 Billion Lawsuit For 6 Of 8 Named American Gun-Makers

Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times,

A Massachusetts District Court Judge has dismissed Mexico’s $10 billion lawsuit against six out of the eight named American gun manufacturers that the country argues are responsible for firearms flooding south across the U.S.-Mexico border.

Initially filed in 2021, Mexico argued that the U.S. companies, all of which have denied wrongdoing, were undermining Massachusetts’s strict gun laws by selling weapons they knew had a chance of being smuggled across the border.

As a result, the Mexican government argued the defendants should be held responsible for a significant portion of the country’s crime—many in which the criminals employed the use of U.S.-made guns. This, in turn, has led to declining investment, economic activity, and higher spending on law enforcement, Mexico said.

The government said more than 500,000 guns are illegally trafficked annually to Mexico from the United States, more than 68 percent of which are made by companies being sued.

In the ruling, U.S. District Judge Dennis Saylor found that Mexico had not shown enough evidence to prove that the activities of six defendant companies in Massachusetts were connected to gun crime in Mexico, citing jurisdictional problems.

As a result, he dismissed the lawsuit against Sturm Ruger & Company, Barrett Firearms Manufacturing, Glock, Colt’s Manufacturing Company, Century International Arms, and Beretta U.S.A. Corp. Two defendants remain: Smith & Wesson Brands and wholesaler Witmer Public Safety Group.

Smith & Wesson Brands and Witmer Public Safety Group have not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication.

According to Saylor, the core question for jurisdictional purposes is whether Mexico’s claims against the six moving defendants “arise” from their business transactions in Massachusetts.

However, he says the connection to Massachusetts, in this case, is “gossamer-thin at best” because Mexico’s government is “obviously not a citizen of Massachusetts,” and none of the defendants operate or have a principal place of business in the state.

“None of the alleged injuries occurred in Massachusetts. No Massachusetts citizen is alleged to have suffered any injury,” Saylor said in the ruling.

“And plaintiff has not identified any specific firearm, or set of firearms, that was sold in Massachusetts and caused injury in Mexico.”

Saylor also dismissed the argument that, statistically, it was likely that some firearms sold in Massachusetts were eventually illegally trafficked to Mexico.

Steve Shadowen, a lawyer representing Mexico, responded on behalf of the Mexican government, saying it was disappointed with the decision and would be considering alternative legal options such as appealing or refiling the case in other courthouses.

Mexico’s Foreign Relations Department said in a statement that the ruling would allow the lawsuit to proceed against the two remaining defendants while other options are considered for the defendants who were dismissed.

Lawrence Keane, general counsel of industry trade group National Shooting Sports Foundation, welcomed Saylor’s decision to reject Mexico’s “obvious forum-shopping,” and expressed optimism that the U.S. Supreme Court would toss the rest of the case.

A Glock 17 9 mm (L) and a Sig Sauer P322 .22-caliber handgun are propped up by stands on a glass countertop in front of a wall of rifles in Lawful Defense in Gainesville, Fla., on April 19, 2023. (Nanette Holt/The Epoch Times)

After the case was filed in 2021, six of the U.S. arms manufacturers filed to dismiss Mexico’s claims based on a 2005 U.S. law, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA). The legislation shields gun manufacturers from damages “resulting from the criminal or unlawful misuse” of a firearm.

In 2022, a federal judge ruled to dismiss the case on those grounds. However, Mexico appealed the ruling and in January, the U.S. First Circuit Court of Appeals in Massachusetts revived the lawsuit on the basis that the PLCAA does not apply in this instance.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 08:25

Futures Rebound From Overnight Lows As Sentiment Remains On Edge

Futures Rebound From Overnight Lows As Sentiment Remains On Edge

After three rollercoaster days of wild, brutal swings, futures are flat ahead of the Thursday open, erasing overnight losses if still below the all-important CTA threshold level of 5255 which trigger billions in sales by systematic funds. Asian and European stocks declined, prolonging the soaring volatility that has gripped global markets for days after the BOJ effectively steamrolled the carry trade last week when it unexpectedly hiked rates, only to U-turn just days later when the Nikkei suffered its biggest one day crash since Black Monday. As of 7:4am S&P futures were unchanged at 5,228 while Nasdaq futures were fractionally in the green, with Mag7 and semis providing support despite the continued selling by Supermicro. Treasuries yields are lower ahead of US jobless claims data, with US 10-year yields falling 2bps to 3.93% as European bonds also gain. Keep an eye on bonds as yesterday’s 10Y auction was weak but that could have been negatively impacted by elevated Credit issuance; today is the 30Y auction. The USD is weaker and commodities are lower across all 3 complexes as WTI dips below $75, but precious metals catch a bid. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims; a spike there preceded a weaker NFP that coincided with the carry unwind so the market may have heightened sensitivity to the print. Elsewhere, both Goldman and JPMorgan raised their recession odds, from 10% to 25% and from 25% to 35%, respectively.

In premarket trading, Warner Bros shares plunged after the parent of CNN and TNT posted a $9.1 billion charge write-down on the value of its traditional TV networks. Monster Beverage shares slid after the energy-drink maker missed second-quarter profit estimates. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • Amneal rises 6% after the drug maker received US FDA approval for its extended-release capsules for the treatment of Parkinson’s Disease, named Crexont.
  • Bumble plunges 41% after the dating company slashed its annual revenue outlook, suggesting that an overhaul of the brand’s flagship app has failed to meaningfully reignite growth.
  • Dutch Bros slumps 22% after the drive-through coffee chain tempered its store growth outlook.
  • Lilly rises 10% after lifting its 2024 sales outlook for the second time this year as its blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound outsold expectations.
  • JFrog sinks 26% after the application software company cut its full-year forecast.
  • Klaviyo jumps 18% after the company boosted its revenue guidance for the year.
  • Monster Beverage falls 8% after growth in the energy-drink maker’s revenue and drink volumes slowed to its worst rate since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • SolarEdge tumbles 15% after the renewable energy firm’s revenue forecast for the 3Q came in well below the average analyst estimate.
  • Under Armour rises 7% as management raised its guidance as the sports gear brand restructures under returning founder Kevin Plank.

Markets have been extremely volatile since poor jobs data last week fueled worries that Federal Reserve policy is risking a deeper slowdown. Coupled with a rate hike by the BOJ, the carry trade has suffered a historic unwind which according to JPM is about 75% done. Thursday’s US jobless claims figures are in sharper focus than ever after last week’s flimsy payrolls numbers. Investors are also bracing for the US and Japanese central banks to potentially move interest rates in opposite directions in the coming months, putting further strain on the yen-funded carry trade.

This is a “consolidation period before any new trend, given how volatile the market has been,” said Kerry Goh, chief investment officer at Kamet Capital Partners Pte. “Investors probably will stay sidelined until new data appear. The next couple of days will be crucial — either calm returns, or we see a new bout of volatility emerge.”

Meanwhile, as discussed last night, the divergence in US and Japanese central bank monetary policy is set to undermine the yen’s role as a cheap source of funding for financial assets. A Thursday summary of the minutes from last week’s Bank of Japan meeting showed that authorities didn’t see last months surprise rate hike as policy tightening. However, just days later, and following an epic Japanese stock rout, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida yesterday said the BOJ won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable, a reassurance that helped buoy stocks and sent the yen lower.

Three-quarters of the carry trade has been unwound as the recent slump wiped out all positive year-to-date returns, according to strategists at JPMorgan while Goldman analysts believe that positioning in the yen is now net long, suggesting most of the carry trade has been unwound.

The carry strategy, which involves borrowing at low rates to fund purchases in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, has been wobbling for months. Carry trades were pummeled over the past week as global market volatility jumped amid fears of rapid Fed rate cuts and after the Bank of Japan’s larger than expected rate hike. The unspooling of the carry trade has further room to run, according to Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial. “A softer dollar, driven by the market’s perception that the Fed will soon initiate an easing cycle, should help support a stronger yen — a negative for the trade.”

Elsewhere, debate about the path of the US economy continues. JPMorgan now sees a 35% chance that the US economy tips into a recession by the end of this year, up from 25% as of the start of last month. The bank’s new calculation for recession risks followed just hours after a similar step by Goldman, which now sees a 25% probability of a recession in the next year.

Other investors, however, argue that the data still point to a soft landing. “I’m not that worried for the US economy. Yes, unemployment is a concern but it’s not dramatic, it’s just a slowdown,” said Francois Rimeu, a strategist at La Francaise Asset Management in Paris. “I take the view that this was just a volatility episode like we’ve experienced in the past during the summer.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index reversed much of Wednesday’s advance, dragged lower by technology and mining shares. The is Estoxx 50 down 1%, tech and industrials underperforming. Siemens shares dropped after the manufacturer said it sees group revenue growth and returns in its key industrial unit at the lower end of forecasts. Zurich Insurance Group AG shares fell after the company reported a rise in losses atit property and casualty arm, driven in part by “higher catastrophe losses and weather events.” Allianz SE climbed after second-quarter profit rose on stronger earnings from its life-health insurance and asset management businesses. Deliveroo Plc rallied after reporting stronger customer orders and saying earnings for the year will be on the higher end of its forecast. Entain Plc soared after the UK gambling firm got an earnings boost from this summer’s European Football Championship.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities first rose but eventually dropped, halting a two-day rally, as Japanese shares reversed an early gain after a volatile trading session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, weighed by tech shares including TSMC, Samsung and Keyence. Japan’s Topix Index declined, as technology firms tracked their US peers lower. Exporters also took a hit after the yen strengthened against the dollar. Benchmarks retreated in Taiwan, South Korea and Australia. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong and the mainland were broadly steady amid the selloff in Asia, burnishing the markets’ appeal as a foil to the ongoing global volatility while investors seek value. Sentiment in the region remained fragile in one of the most tumultuous weeks for stocks in recent memory. The Asian gauge is headed for its fourth successive week of losses as investors reassess the outlook for the US economy and the nation’s interest rate trajectory.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2%. The Swiss franc tops G-10 peers and the Japanese yen also rises in a haven bid. The Australian dollar climbs after more hawkish rhetoric from the RBA.

In rates, Treasuries hold small gains in early US trading. Yields are richer by 1bp-2bp across the curve with inverted 2s10s around -3.5bp after closing at YTD high -2.1bp Wednesday; new 10-year is around 3.93%, lagging bunds in the sector and outperforming gilts. Supply remains in focus as auction cycle concludes with $25b 30-year bond sale and at least a couple of corporate offerings are expected to follow Wednesday’s deluge of almost $32 billion. Yesterday's unexpectedly weak 10Y auction which tailed by 3.1bp, a notably poor result, as it drew the lowest yield in a year and spooked markets and precipitated a cross-asset selloff.  The When Issued on the 30-year yield is at ~4.225% is ~17bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 2.2bp

In commodities, oil steadied after its biggest advance in a week, with traders still glued to fluctuations in wider markets and tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold rises $13 to around $2,396/oz.

Bitcoin rises 3.7% after Ripple framed the recent SEC ruling as a win for the company.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am) and June wholesale inventories (10am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Barkin at 3pm

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 5,231
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 490.56
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 173.35
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 544.49
  • Nikkei down 0.7% to 34,831.15
  • Topix down 1.1% to 2,461.70
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 16,891.83
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 2,869.90
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 79,019.95
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,681.98
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,556.73
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $78.02/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,394.27
  • US Dollar Index down 0.21% to 102.98
  • German 10Y yield -3 bps at 2.24%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0938

Top Overnight News

  • BOJ summary of opinions shows the central bank discussed further rate hikes at last month’s meeting, but officials also believe policy remains accommodative despite modest tightening measures. RTRS  
  • China’s regional banks are under fresh scrutiny from regulators for snapping up treasury notes amid an extended rally in Chinese government bonds that’s drawn alarm from the central bank. WSJ
  • The PBOC may have more room for rate cuts if the Fed eases aggressively. Some economists say China’s surprise cut last month could now be followed by another two such moves in 2024 — easing on a scale unseen in years. BBG
  • Taylor Swift has cancelled three concerts in Vienna after Austrian authorities said they had uncovered an Islamist terror plot to attack the singer-songwriter’s fans in the city this week. Austrian police arrested a 19-year-old Austrian citizen on Wednesday morning and a second individual of undisclosed age and nationality in the afternoon. FT
  • Italy has doubled a flat tax on the foreign income of new residents, in a blow to rich expats seeking to flee the prospect of higher levies elsewhere in Europe. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s cabinet on Wednesday approved a rise in the annual levy on overseas income for new tax residents in Italy to €200,000. FT
  • US consumers are reining in spending on travel and leisure, hitting businesses including Disney theme parks, Airbnb home rentals and Hilton hotels as questions grow about the health of the economy. FT
  • Major cryptocurrencies ticked upward after Ripple was ordered by a US court to pay a $125 million penalty, just a fraction of what the SEC had sought. “The SEC’s headwinds against the whole of the XRP community are gone,” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said on X. BBG
  • Ukraine launched rocket and drone attacks as its forces expanded their operation inside Russia’s Kursk region, on the second day of a bold incursion that has forced Moscow to redeploy troops from the Ukrainian front. FT
  • Google and Meta made a secret deal to target advertisements for Instagram to teenagers on YouTube, skirting the search company’s own rules for how minors are treated online. FT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after the weak handover from Wall St where the major indices fumbled early gains and finished in the red amid soft earnings and geopolitical risks. ASX 200 was dragged lower amid underperformance in the commodity-related stocks including BHP which is reportedly planning to sell Brazilian copper and gold assets it acquired in the takeover of Oz Minerals. Nikkei 225 slumped in early trade with losses of as much as 2.5% before briefly staging a full recovery. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. pared opening losses with the former making its way back towards the psychological  17,000 level, while the mainland also pared early losses but kept within a narrow range amid light catalysts.

Top Asian News

  • BoJ Summary of Opinions from the July 30th-31st meeting stated one member said they must be mindful of upside risks to inflation and a member said a tight labour market and rise in import prices from a weak yen will likely keep inflation under upward pressure. There was also the opinion that it is appropriate to raise the interest rate given that the economy and prices are moving in line with forecasts and there is a need for vigilance to upside inflation risk. Furthermore, a member said there is no change to the fact that the BoJ is supporting the economy even upon raising rates as a nominal rate of 0.25% is very accommodative, while one member said given the environment surrounding inflation, it is good time to consider small rate hike and a member also said the BoJ should eventually raise rates to levels deemed neutral to economy, which is likely at least around 1%.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said they are vigilant to inflation risks and will not hesitate to hike if needed, while she added the board considered a hike on Tuesday and current rates are still deemed to meet the inflation mandate. Bullock said core inflation is not expected to return to the 2–3% target range until the end of 2025 and based on current information, the RBA does not anticipate rates coming down quickly. Furthermore, she said the RBA does not react to individual economic numbers and if the economy declines faster than expected, the RBA would consider cutting rates but sees the need for more evidence to alternate the rate stance.
  • RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained the stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation in which 4 out of 6 members voted in favour of the rate decision and policy stance. RBI Governor Das said India's growth remains strong and inflation is broadly on a declining trajectory. Furthermore, Das said they want inflation to progressively align with the target and noted the food component of inflation remains stubborn but added that going forward, the base effect on inflation will wear out.
  • Earthquake in Japan's southern region, prelim. magnitude of 6.9 (rev. to 7.1 at 08:57BST), via NHK; Tsunami warning has been issued for Miyazaki and Kochi, then broadened to Kagoshima and Ehime

European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2%, as the downbeat sentiment from Wall St. reverberated into APAC trade and continued. Macro newsflow light, earnings driving sectoral differences with Travel & Leisure underpinned by Entain numbers, Telecoms supported by Deutsche Telekom. Stateside, US futures are lower across the board but only modestly so with losses shallow than those seen in Europe, ES -0.4% & NQ -0.3%. Ahead, a handful of earnings due.

Top European News

  • Turkey Keeps Year-End Inflation Outlook on Slowing Demand
  • Siemens to Hit Low End of Forecasts on Slow Automation Sales
  • Duerr Surges on Earnings Beat and Improved Order Intake Outlook
  • Deliveroo Orders Grow as Demand Picks Up Across Markets
  • Turkish Central Bank Keeps Year-End Inflation Outlook Unchanged
  • Anti-Racism Protesters Give UK Respite After Days of Riots

FX

  • DXY is softer intraday after mild gains on Wednesday, with a lack of specific catalysts thus far into US data and supply; holding just 103.00.
  • JPY unreactive to a Japanese earthquake and tsunami; USD/JPY just above the 146.00 mark and softer on the session with overall action much more contained than that seen recently.
  • EUR underpinned by the mentioned soft USD, but only modestly so with specifics light; similar story for Sterling, though Cable has slipped below the 1.2700 mark.
  • Antipodeans are firmer, outperformance once again for the AUD after comments from the RBA Governor. Kiwi kept afloat despite softer inflation expectations which have increased the odds of an RBNZ cut next week.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1460 vs exp. 7.1821 (prev. 7.1386).

Fixed Income

  • Fixed benchmarks bid, specific drivers light and the action overall well within recent parameters.
  • Complex is essentially in a holding pattern ahead of US weekly data and then a 30yr auction which follows the soft 10yr on Wednesday.
  • Bunds at the mid-point of c. 50 tick parameters with Gilts in-fitting but in even narrow ranges while USTs are inching toward Wednesday's 113-37 best having pared the late-doors auction-driven downside.

Commodities

  • Crude is subdued but holds onto the bulk of yesterday's gains, complex is focussed on geopols as we await a Iran/Lebanon retaliatory strike against Israel with potential Hezbollah action also a point of focus.
  • WTI Sep trades within a USD 74.78-75.70/bbl range while Brent Oct trades within a USD 77.80-78.70/bbl band.
  • Nat Gas benchmarks began with marked gains, bolstered by reports of Ukrainian troops launching an attack on the Kursk, Russia region; however, the situation in Kursk has, according to somewhat mixed Russian reporting, seemingly stabilised a touch and has caused a pullback from best.
  • Metals are mixed, precious peers supported by the geopolitical landscape but in narrow ranges while base metals are near-unchanged, though LME Copper attempting to pare some of Wednesday's hefty pressure.
  • Russia's Gazprom is continuing shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine, Thursday's volume at 37.3MCM (prev. 39.4MCM on Wednesday and 42.3MCM on Tuesday).
  • China's NDRC to cut the retail gasoline and diesel price by CNY 305/T and CNY 290/T respectively as of 8th August.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iran’s UN envoy said Tehran’s “priority is to punish the aggressors” responsible for Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran and preventing the repetition of terrorist attacks by Israel. This follows a report that US officials said Iran may be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on Israel, while they do anticipate an Iranian response to the Haniyeh killing but think Tehran seems to have recalibrated and the US does not expect an imminent attack.
  • Hezbollah reportedly looks increasingly like it may strike Israel independent of whatever Iran may intend to do, according to two sources familiar with the intelligence cited by CNN.
  • Israeli officials think the target for Hezbollah's response could be the IDF headquarters in the centre of Tel Aviv or the Mossad headquarters and other key intelligence bases in northern Tel Aviv, according to Axios's Ravid.
  • Israel told the US if Hezbollah harms Israeli civilians as part of its retaliation for the assassination of its top military commander, the Israel Defense Force's response would be disproportionate, according to two officials cited by Axios.
  • Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister said Haniyeh's assassination is considered a 'blatant violation' of Iran's sovereignty.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Russia's Medvedev said Russia must press on to Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, and further, while he added that Russia will stop only when it finds it acceptable and beneficial.
  • Russia's Defence Ministry says Russia is thwarting Ukraine attempts to break through deeper into Russia's Kursk region, according to agencies.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: July Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.88m
  • 08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 249,000
  • 10:00: June Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • 10:00: June Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 15:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Fireside Chat
Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 08:10

Nassau County Criminalizes Masks To Counter Far-Left Mask-Wearing Activists 

Nassau County Criminalizes Masks To Counter Far-Left Mask-Wearing Activists 

Nassau County Republicans passed the "Mask Transparency Act" on Monday, making it a misdemeanor for anyone 16 and older to wear a face mask in public spaces except for health and religious reasons. This move aims to curb criminals or violent protesters who exploit mask-wearing to conceal their identities

Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip proposed the Mask Transparency Act after one of her constituents was attacked by a mask-wearing protester.

"Having them covering their faces, thinking they can do whatever they want. This is absolutely unacceptable," Pilip told NBC New York.

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman shared a similar view... 

"Unless someone has a medical condition or a religious imperative, people should not be allowed to cover their face in a manner that hides their identity when in public." 

Violators of the bill could be slapped with a fine of up to $1,000 and even jail time. The bill had unanimous support from all 12 Republican legislators in Nassau County. 

Far-left protesters, including Antifa, Black Lives Matter, and some pro-Palestinian protesters, have favored masks to conceal their identities.

Meanwhile, criminals emboldened by failed progressive laws in New York City have had a field day with mask-wearing policies, utilizing them to their advantage. From smash-and-grabs to robberies to subway attacks, it's widely known that criminals wear masks.  

Even Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has considered banning masks in NYC over "antisemitic acts" and other crimes. 

The New York Civil Liberties Union criticized the bill, calling the exceptions "wholly inadequate." 

"Nassau County police officers are neither health professionals nor religious experts capable of deciding who needs a mask and who doesn't," NYCLU wrote on X. 

Democrats are likely going to freak about this new bill because now their 'agents of change' - or far-left professional protestors will actually have to show their faces or risk being arrested.  

Here's a bold move for Republican lawmakers nationwide... Replicate the Mask Transparency Act across your metro areas to stop the spread of criminals and violent protests.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 07:45

The Rot In The Commercial Real Estate Market In One Story

The Rot In The Commercial Real Estate Market In One Story

Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,

I've been watching the commercial real estate (CRE) sector as a potential catalyst for the next financial crisis. So far, it has managed to hold together, but there is still trouble brewing under the surface.

The story of one commercial real estate investment by UBS Group is a microcosm of the commercial real estate market.

In 2006, an investment fund managed by a division of UBS bought the Sports Illustrated Building in Manhattan for $332 million. It purchased the land under the 925,000-square-foot building in 2012 for $279 million. 

Seven years later, UBS sold the land to Safehold for $285 million. Safehold specializes in land leases, and at the time of the sale, UBS inked a long-term ground lease with the company to retain control of the building.

According to Wolfstreet, UBS likely held onto the building in 2019 because there was an office shortage in Manhattan, and rents were sky-high. 

"In theory, UBS could draw income from the building – the office rents, on their way to the moon, would hopefully exceed the costs of the ground lease and other expenses – while it had drawn $285 million in cash out of the property."

As you can guess, things didn't turn out that way.

Not anticipating COVID-19, UBS pumped even more money into the building, with approximately $76 million in renovations.

When construction was completed in early 2021, the building was leased to about 40 percent of capacity. At the time, UBS had invested about $408 million in the property.

Of course, by this time, the CRE market was in the midst of a freefall. Building occupancy quickly fell to 35 percent. 

UBS faced a double-whammy of falling occupancy and declining rents. Rental income could no longer cover the ground lease. As WolfStreet put it, "The whole thing had turned into a money-suck."

UBS put the tower on the market. It almost managed to cobble together a deal, but it fell through. Eventually, the investment bank sold the building via online auction for a paltry $8.5 million.

Putting it all together, UBS paid $332 million for the building and then invested another $76 million in renovations for a total of $408 million.  Then it sold the building for $8.5 million, a massive $399.5 million loss.

It did manage to eke out a $6 million gain on the land, dropping the total loss to $393.5 million - a 43 percent loss on the investment.

The loss won't look as bad on the books because accounting rules allow UBS to depreciate the value of the building, but accounting tricks don't mitigate an actual loss.

Now, multiply this scenario hundreds of times and you can see why there is worry about the CRE market.

Today, the CRE sector faces the triple whammy of falling prices, falling demand, and rising interest rates. The post-pandemic rise of telecommuting and work-at-home programs crushed demand for office space. Vacancy rates in commercial buildings have soared.

This has put significant stress on commercial real estate companies. The biggest bankruptcy in 2023 was the failure of the Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust. The company had loaded up with more than $1 billion in liabilities.

The collapse of the commercial real estate market could easily spill over into the financial sector. That’s because a lot of loans are coming due.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, around $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the United States will mature over the next two years.

According to Trepp (a real estate data provider), $2.56 trillion in commercial real estate loans will mature over the next five years, with $1.4 trillion held by banks.

All of that debt will have to be refinanced. That’s a big problem for debtors who face much higher interest rates to borrow money on buildings with much lower values.

And as the UBS example shows us, selling the buildings doesn't offer a solution.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 07:20

Alleged Terror Plot Sparks Cancellation Of Taylor Swift Concerts In Austria

Alleged Terror Plot Sparks Cancellation Of Taylor Swift Concerts In Austria

Three huge concerts by superstar pop singer Taylor Swift have been cancelled in Vienna after authorities on Wednesday announced they'd arrested two men alleged to have been plotting a terrorist attack. Three more suspects are reportedly at large

“Both [arrested] suspects had become radicalized on the internet and had taken concrete preparatory actions for a terrorist attack,” said Austria's interior department in a press release. As is so frequently the case in Europe, details on the suspects -- and especially their demographics -- are scarce at this point. Officials did say that one suspect is a 19-year-old Austrian citizen who'd recently made an online pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State terror group. 

Taylor Swift on stage at Lumen Field in Seattle Washington (Mat Hayward/TAS23/Getty Images/TAS Rights Management via Rolling Stone)

"During our investigations, we identified preparatory actions and noted that the 19 year-old suspect had a particular focus on the Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna," said Austrian director general for public security Franz Ruf at a press conference. He added that police who raided the man's home in Ternitz -- about 80 miles south of Vienna -- found chemical substances, though it's not clear what they were or if they were to be used in an attack. 

While the suspected plot against Swift has been neutralized, local media reports that three more men are wanted by police, who remain on an elevated state of alert. “The concrete threat, as you’ve heard, has been minimized, but there remains an abstract increased threat,” said Vienna State Police president Gerhard Pürstl. 

“The Taylor Swift concert plot fits ISIS-K’s modus operandi perfectly,” Colin Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group told the New York Times. “A high-profile soft target which, if successfully attacked, would result in massive civilian casualties while generating worldwide publicity.” As an example, he pointed to the 2017 bombing of an Arianda Grande concert in England that killed 22 attendees. 

The first of three concerts was scheduled for Thursday night. Together, the trio of event was expected to see almost 200,000 fans pack into Ernst Happel Stadium, which is also used for major outdoor sporting events and previously hosted the Rolling Stones. Each night, they expected 65,000 people inside the stadium and another 15,000 hanging around outside it. 

Vienna's Ernst-Happel Stadion is the largest football stadium in Austria

 “With confirmation from government officials of a planned terrorist attack at Ernst Happel Stadium, we have no choice but to cancel the three scheduled shows for everyone’s safety,” said Austrian concert promoter Barracuda Music in an Instagram post. The firm assured that tickets would be automatically refunded within 10 business days. Fans -- throngs of whom had already begun gathering around the stadium to socialize and buy souvenirs and swag -- were crushed. 

News of the alleged terror plot in Austria comes little more than a week after a children's dance workshop centered on Swift's music was attacked in England, with a knife-wielding 17-year-old of Rwandan descent murdering three children and injuring nine more. 

"These were just little kids at a dance class," Swift wrote on Instagram. "I am at a complete loss for how to ever convey my sympathies to these families." In the aftermath of the attack, England has witnessed huge riots, with violence alternatingly unleashed by people fed up with mass, third-world immigration, and by immigrants themselves.  

In July, Austria's Interior Ministry announced new requirements to be imposed on asylum seekers throughout the country. As EuroNews explained, the program is meant to "strengthen the integration of refugees and provide them with a clear grounding in Austrian values and social mores." 

The "catalogue of requirements" includes mandatory charitable work for the government, or nursing service or homeless shelters. At the same time, a "benefits card" is being tested, to facilitate giving the migrants spending money. “If you don’t do any charitable work, your pocket money will be reduced from €40 to €20," Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said. "That is one of the clear consequences." Migrants will also have to "receive information about Austrian culture, values and social etiquette, as well as equality, democracy and anti-Semitism," reports EuroNews.

Karner claimed in July that more restrictive immigration policies are helping to ease pressure on Austrian society -- but Wednesday's news of a suspected terror plot seems to show there are still alarming implications. While rioting probably isn't in the cards in Austria, we can imagine that the cancellation of the highly-anticipated Swift concerts in Vienna might sour some local "Swifties" on the whole "diversity is our strength" mantra.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 06:55

Brussels Is Hellbent On Destroying European Farming

Brussels Is Hellbent On Destroying European Farming

Authored by Dénes Albert via ReMix News,

The EU, under the control of the global elite, is systematically crushing agriculture through its policies, but this is happening not only in Europe but also across the wider West.

The European Commission and the member states that slavishly follow it, such as Germany, are taking one measure after another that can have no other result than to make traditional farming and livestock breeding impossible, an act that has been practiced for thousands of years.

EU policies threaten to destroy what has provided us with our daily bread and food and make it impossible for farmers to survive. The adage of “No farmers, no food” is apt. Without them, we will all ultimately starve to death.

Denmark has recently announced that it will introduce cattle, pig, and sheep taxes in 2030. They say (…) these animals cause huge damage, as they emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Behind this is the green ideology, the European Union’s Green Deal, which is based on the idea that global warming is caused by human carbon dioxide emissions, and agriculture is linked to this, since cows, for example, emit a lot of methane into the atmosphere.

The measures that the EU and individual Western countries are putting in place are diverse, but they all point in the same direction. First, forcing farmers not to cultivate certain areas, to clear land, and to stop their activities in order to protect the climate. This is what farmers in the Netherlands were forced to do a few months ago, and the measures put some 3,000 farmers in an impossible situation.

The release of Ukrainian agricultural products onto the European market is a concrete, tangible crime by Brussels, which poses a direct, clear, and present danger to European farmers, especially those in Eastern and Central Europe. It is well known that the standards for Ukrainian agricultural products are far more lax and permissive than those within the EU, and the quality of Ukrainian products (from cereals to foodstuffs) is far inferior to that of European products — but that is why EU farmers simply cannot compete with the prices of Ukrainian products.

It is clear, therefore, that every move by Brussels and the European leaders who serve the globalist elite in Brussels is deliberately destroying European agriculture. Normal leaders would not do this.

Behind it are the left-liberal and globalist aspirations. This is what they believe, and it is now manifested in the fact that global warming is increasing in a devastating way, that the earth’s climate is becoming unbearable, but they believe that this is due to one single cause: human activity, mainly and decisively anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 06:30

Morgan Stanley Starts Pitching Bitcoin ETFs To Clients Today

Morgan Stanley Starts Pitching Bitcoin ETFs To Clients Today

Morgan Stanley has officially begun pitching shares of two exchange-traded bitcoin funds - with some 15,000 financial advisors given the green light to recommend BlackRock's IShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund to clients.

That said, the firm will only allow clients with a net worth of at least $1.5 million, a high risk profile, and an interest in speculative investments to take part in the ETFs, and will only be allowed in taxable brokerage accounts vs. retirement accounts, according to CNBC.

Morgan Stanley made the move in response to demand from clients and in an attempt to follow an evolving marketplace for digital assets, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about the bank’s internal policies.

The bank will monitor clients' bitcoin holdings to prevent 'excessive exposure' to the asset class.

In January, the SEC approved applications for 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, marking the arrival of an investment vehicle for bitcoin that's far easier for normie boomers to access than figuring out how to directly own the digital asset.

Meanwhile, other major banks such as Goldman, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo continue to restrict their advisers from pitching bitcoin ETFs - only allowing clients access if explicitly requested.

Morgan is also observing a slew of newly approved ETFs - which means the bank may also consider adding some of the new Ethereum offerings for clients if the BTC ETFs do well.

As Bitcoin Magazine notes, the bank's decision marks a 'significant step' towards institutional adoption of bitcoin in traditional finance, and "Morgan Stanley made the move in response to demand from clients and in an attempt to follow an evolving marketplace for digital assets, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about the bank’s internal policies."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 05:45

Israeli Group Practices Red Heifer Ritual In Front Of Al-Aqsa Mosque

Israeli Group Practices Red Heifer Ritual In Front Of Al-Aqsa Mosque

Via Middle East Eye

A group of religious Israelis have been pictured practicing the ritual of the red heifer, which is meant to herald the building of a new Jewish temple on the site of Al-Aqsa Mosque.

According to Jewish tradition, the ashes of a perfectly red heifer cow are needed for the ritual purification that would allow a third temple to be built in Jerusalem. That temple, say radical Jewish groups, must be constructed on the raised plateau in Jerusalem’s Old City known as the Temple Mount, where Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock shrine stand today.

Temple Mount, file image via Encyclopedia Britannica

Some believe this will herald the arrival of the messiah and possibly even the end of the world.

"Temple worshipers are now practicing the mitzvah [religious duty] of a red cow in front of the Temple Mount, which will enable the return of purity and the observance of all the temple mitzvahs," posted journalist Yinon Magal on Tuesday, along with a picture of activists from the Temple Institute.

In 2022, five red heifers arrived in Israel from a Texas ranch and are now kept in an archaeological park next to Shilo, an illegal Israeli settlement near the Palestinian city of Nablus.

The Temple Institute imported the heifers for the eventual purpose of using them in a ritual after years of searching for blemish-free cows, without a stray white or black hair.

Their eventual slaughter on the Mount of Olives will - according to advocates - allow Jewish people to be purified so they can perform rites and worship on the site of Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Research by a professor at Bar Ilan University estimated that the ashes of one cow could be made into enough cleansing water for 660 billion purifications. The cow being practiced upon in Magal's image (below) does not appear to be one of the five red heifers from Shilo.

The traditional site of the ritual, the Mount of Olives, is seen in the background on the other side of Al-Aqsa Mosque, suggesting the practice run was performed within the Old City.

The status quo in Jerusalem has long maintained that Jewish prayer is forbidden on the raised plateau in occupied East Jerusalem.

The site is believed to be the location of two ancient Jewish temples. Jews are permitted to pray at the Western Wall, which runs along one side of the hill and is regarded as the last remaining part of the Second Jewish Temple that the Romans destroyed in 70 CE.

Restrictions on non-Muslims entering the mosque have been in place since the Ottoman status quo designating Jerusalem's holy sites to its sects was established in 1757. 

The Chief Rabbinate of Jerusalem has also, since 1921, officially banned Jews from entering the Temple Mount. It ruled that Jews are forbidden to enter the site unless "ritually clean", which is impossible without the ashes of a red heifer.

Over the past century, religious Zionist groups - including the Temple Institute - have advocated for the return of Jewish prayer at Al-Aqsa, with some even advocating the demolition of the mosque and reconstruction of the temple.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 05:00

US Hands Ukraine $3.9BN in 'Budgetary Aid' Through World Bank

US Hands Ukraine $3.9BN in 'Budgetary Aid' Through World Bank

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced early this week that his government had received $3.9 billion from the United States in the form of "direct budgetary aid" - which are funds given from the US and disbursed directly to Kiev through the World Bank.

"This is the first tranche of direct budget support from the United States in 2024. In total, Ukraine will receive $7.8 billion in direct budgetary assistance from the United States this year, which will allow us to confidently pass this financial period," Shmyhal posted on Telegram.

Image: Wiki Commons

It is part of the continued Western effort to keep the war-ravaged civic infrastructure and daily services of Ukraine afloat. Without the aid, external supporters fear the country could see civic services collapse, leading to societal unrest and collapse of rule of law.

This fresh budgetary aid infusion will finance 'priority' expenditures to include rescue workers, doctors, teachers salaries, public pensions and social benefits. Farmers could also see some of the funds.

The nearly four billion is being pulled from the $95 billion foreign military aid bill signed into law by President Biden back in April, which set aside $61 billion total for Ukraine.

And specifically, below is a CSIS description of the part of the package set aside for budgetary assistance, including sustaining basic governmental services for the civilian population:

Economic support to Ukraine ($7.9 billion) assists the Ukrainian government in sustaining essential government services, including law enforcement. This support is structured as a loan, not a grant (section 508), in response to pressure from Republicans and former president Trump. There are detailed procedures by which the president can forgive the loans, giving the president a lot of authority. Essentially, the president can forgive the loans unless Congress takes specific action to disagree. Describing the procedures for these grants takes up three of the fourteen pages in the bill.

A breakdown of the aid still being dolled out, which could yet take years more...

Source: WSJ

Of course, the majority of the money marked as "aid to Ukraine" is really going is to the US military industrial complex. As the WSJ pointed out months ago, the roughly $60 billion for Ukraine will see most flow to the U.S. defense industry for additional weapons such as ammunition and rocket launchers. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 04:15

Brits Warned Merely 'Retweeting' Information About Riots Could Be A Criminal Offense

Brits Warned Merely 'Retweeting' Information About Riots Could Be A Criminal Offense

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

UK authorities have warned people that merely retweeting information about the riots could lead to criminal charges.

Yes, really.

Stephen Parkinson, the Director of Public Prosecutions, told Sky News that people do not even need to personally post the content themselves to be deemed to be committing an offence.

Parkinson said social media users could be guilty of “incitement to racial hatred” if they post “insulting or abusive” content that is “likely to stir up racial hatred.”

“So if you retweet that, then you’re republishing that and then potentially you’re committing that offence,” he added, noting that dedicated police officers are “scouring social media” looking for such material.

“People might think they’re not doing anything harmful, they are, and the consequences will be visited upon them,” Parkinson warned.

Sky News clarified that “sharing online material of riots could be an offence.”

The public official also asserted separately that individuals who publish protest/riot locations, such as those outside immigration law firms, could be hit with terrorism charges.

“The fact that it’s organised groups that might be motivated by ideological reasons, the fact that they’re promoting potentially very serious offences – that’s the sort of instance where we might want to consider terrorism charges,” said Parkinson.

He even previously suggested that social media influencers who are currently located abroad like Tommy Robinson could be extradited and hit with terrorism charges in the UK on nebulous charges of inciting the riots.

As we highlighted earlier, numerous prominent people in the UK are now calling on the government to mimic Communist China by banning Twitter (X) altogether in the country to stop civil unrest.

Cambridge professor Sander van der Linden said the government could “geo-restrict access to a platform if the situation got so bad” and Twitter could also be “banned from the app store for violating policies.”

Keir Starmer proudly proclaimed the implementation of a “standing army” of riot police to deal with what he has called right-wing thugs, although the Prime Minister has failed to condemn similar violent attacks and riots by Muslim mobs.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 03:30

Cocoa Prices Rise As US Stockpiles In Exchange-Monitored Warehouses Hit Four-Year Low

Cocoa Prices Rise As US Stockpiles In Exchange-Monitored Warehouses Hit Four-Year Low

Cocoa futures in New York remain range-bound within a symmetrical triangle pattern after peaking near $12,000 a ton in mid-April, finding support around $7,000. Futures are rising this morning as traders are concerned about dwindling stockpiles in US warehouses.

New data from ICE exchange-monitored warehouses shows US cocoa stockpiles have slumped to the lowest levels since December 2019. Given the global tightening of cocoa supplies theme, the bags held in US warehouse could extend declines in the coming weeks and or months.

The most-active contract rose as much as 5.6% in New York. Inventories of cocoa beans held in the US have fallen to the lowest in more than four years as tightness in the market force grinders to draw down inventories in exchange-monitored warehouses. -Bloomberg

Bloomberg noted that even though the "cocoa market is expected to flip to a surplus in the 2024-25 season," there is still increasing concern among commercial users that shortages will persist due to West Africa's previous poor harvests, adding, "Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast are still lagging behind the prior season by more than a quarter, the latest data shows." 

Higher cocoa costs are continuing to be passed along to cash-strapped consumers.

The iconic US chocolate maker Hershey reported last week that it slashed its sales and earnings outlook for the year as shoppers reduced purchases of higher-priced chocolates and candies. In other words, demand destruction is emerging. 

Nothing to see here. 

Besides consumer demand destruction fears, cocoa prices have been weighed down by expectations of better harvests in West Africa. Prices are still 116% higher than at the start of the year. 

Despite these price swings, oil trader Pierre Andurand remains bullish on the view that the stocks-to-grinding ratio for the world at the end of the year will be at its lowest ever "and potentially run out of inventories late in the year." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 02:45

Ukraine's Sneak Attack Against Russia's Kursk Region Might Be Its Last Hurrah

Ukraine's Sneak Attack Against Russia's Kursk Region Might Be Its Last Hurrah

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Russia is fighting to fend off Ukraine’s sneak attack its Kursk Region, though conflicting reports have emerged about the location of these clashes. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that all the fighting has taken place on the Ukrainian side of the border, while Rybar – which boasts nearly 1.2 million subscribers and functions as a think tank of sorts – said that it’s taking place inside of Russia’s borders.

Whatever the truth may be, this latest development is still immensely important.

Simply put, it might be Ukraine’s last hurrah since it represents a massive gamble to open up a new front inside of Russia’s pre-2014 borders with the intent of having its foes redeploy some of their troops to Kursk from Donbass, where they’ve continued gradually gaining ground this year. Russia had hitherto braced for yet another attack against neighboring Belgorod Region, ergo the difficult but necessary decision to impose a strict security regime there late last month, so it was taken by surprise.  

Prior to that, there was serious concern that Ukraine might be preparing to launch an offensive into Belarus, which could have expanded the conflict and possibly served as a pretext for Polish involvement. Taken together in light of what just happened in Kursk Region, Ukraine’s moves in those two directions might have been meant in hindsight to “psyche-out” Russia, thus facilitating its latest attack. Unlike prior cross-border raids, this one also involves uniformed Ukrainian troops, not terrorist proxies.

Nobody took Ukraine seriously when it announced that it plans to launch another counteroffensive by sometime later this year, though what’s presently unfolding might be what its policymakers had in mind. That said, the scale isn’t anywhere near what last year’s failed counteroffensive was, and it’s not truly a counteroffensive since Russia wasn’t attacking Ukraine from Kursk. Nevertheless, it’s still the largest cross-border attack so far, and it was clearly planned for some time instead of being an impromptu raid.

These observations don’t imply that it’ll succeed, however, since the military-strategic dynamics have been trending in Russia’s favor for the entire year. After all, Ukraine is diverting limited troops and equipment from the Donbass front to the Kursk one, and this could easily backfire by creating an opening that Russia could exploit. Furthermore, they’re unlikely to hold whatever they might have captured in Kursk, thus precluding the possibility that they can “trade it back” during peace talks.

Even so, the very fact that what’s turned into a two-day-long battle at the time of this analysis’ publication could even happened in the first place shows that Ukraine still has some tricks up its sleeve, namely its continued ability to evade Russia’s surveillance, intelligence, and reconnaissance. Russia didn’t detect any notable buildup near Kursk’s border ahead of time, only Belarus’ and Belgorod’s, otherwise it would have launched preemptive strikes and imposed a security regime along the border.

That’s not to knock Russia but to draw attention to NATO’s impressive tactical capabilities in being able to successfully disguise its proxy’s sneak attack. This contributed to the growing number of civilian casualties that Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova condemned as proof of Kiev’s terrorism. It might get a lot worse than even that before it gets better too if Ukraine is able to achieve a breakthrough in Kursk Region that leads to it threatening the eponymous nearby nuclear power plant.

The odds of that happening are low though according to Major General Apty Alaudinov, who’s the deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ military and political department and commander of the Akhmat special forces unit according to TASS. Another point to make though is that Rybar’s earlier hyperlinked report claimed that Ukraine seized control of a gas pipeline transit station, which if true, could end up seeing that facility destroyed and thus cut off Russian gas to its Central European clients.

Kiev has an interest in punishing Hungary and Slovakia for their anti-war positions, hence why it recently sanctioned a Russian oil company that had an EU waiver to continue supplying those two, so it might accordingly want to inflict maximum damage against them by destroying the aforesaid gas facility. To be clear, Rybar’s report hasn’t been confirmed and might be untrue, but its importance and Alaudinov’s remarks about the nearby nuclear power plant rest in highlighting the huge stakes involved in Kursk.

For these reasons, it can be concluded that this was in the works for a while and is therefore likely to be Ukraine’s last hurrah, which it’s only attempting now out of desperation to receive some relief along the Donbass front where Russia continues to gain ground and might be on the brink of a breakthrough. Russia will likely soon regain its lost territory, if any has really been captured by Ukraine that is, and then make Kiev pay for this dastardly sneak attack.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/08/2024 - 02:00

American Theocracy: Politics Has Become Our National Religion

American Theocracy: Politics Has Become Our National Religion

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“You shall have no other gods before me.”

- The Ten Commandments

“Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore.”

- Donald Trump

Politics has become our national religion.

While those on the Left have feared a religious coup by evangelical Christians on the Right, the danger has come from an altogether different direction: our constitutional republic has given way to a theocracy structured around the worship of a political savior.

For all intents and purposes, politics has become America’s God.

Pay close attention to the political conventions for presidential candidates, and it becomes immediately evident that Americans have allowed themselves to be brainwashed into worshipping a political idol manufactured by the Deep State.

In a carefully choreographed scheme to strip the American citizenry of our power and our rights, “we the people” have become victims of the Deep State’s confidence game.

Every confidence game has six essential stages: 1) the foundation to lay the groundwork for the illusion; 2) the approach whereby the victim is contacted; 3) the build-up to make the victim feel like they’ve got a vested interest in the outcome; 4) the corroboration (aided by third-party conspirators) to legitimize that the scammers are, in fact, on the up-and-up; 5) the pay-off, in which the victim gets to experience some small early “wins”; and 6) the “hurrah”— a sudden manufactured crisis or change of events that creates a sense of urgency. 

In this particular con game, every candidate dangled before us as some form of political savior—including Donald Trump and Kamala Harris—is part of a long-running, elaborate scam intended to persuade us that, despite all appearances to the contrary, we live in a constitutional republic.

In this way, the voters are the dupes, the candidates are the shills, and as usual, it’s the Deep State rigging the outcome.

Terrorist attacks, pandemics, economic uncertainty, national security threats, civil unrest: these are all manipulated crises that add to the sense of urgency and help us feel invested in the outcome of the various elections, but it doesn’t change much in the long term.

No matter who wins this election, we’ll all still be prisoners of the Deep State.

Indeed, the history of the United States is a testament to the old adage that liberty decreases as government (and government bureaucracy) grows. To put it another way, as government expands, liberty contracts.

When it comes to the power players that call the shots, there is no end to their voracious appetite for more: more money, more power, more control. Thus, since 9/11, the government’s answer to every problem has been more government and less freedom.

Yet despite what some may think, the Constitution is no magical incantation against government wrongdoing. Indeed, it’s only as effective as those who abide by it.

However, without courts willing to uphold the Constitution’s provisions when government officials disregard it and a citizenry knowledgeable enough to be outraged when those provisions are undermined, the Constitution provides little to no protection against SWAT team raids, domestic surveillance, police shootings of unarmed citizens, indefinite detentions, and the like.

Unfortunately, the courts and the police have meshed in their thinking to such an extent that anything goes when it’s done in the name of national security, crime fighting and terrorism.

Consequently, America no longer operates under a system of justice characterized by due process, an assumption of innocence, probable cause and clear prohibitions on government overreach and police abuse. Instead, our courts of justice have been transformed into courts of order, advocating for the government’s interests, rather than championing the rights of the citizenry, as enshrined in the Constitution.

The rule of law, the U.S. Constitution, once the map by which we navigated sometimes hostile government terrain, has been unceremoniously booted out of the runaway car that is the U.S. government by the Deep State.

What we are dealing with is a rogue government whose policies are dictated more by greed than need. Making matters worse, “we the people” have become so gullible, so easily distracted, and so out-of-touch that we have ignored the warning signs all around us in favor of political expediency in the form of electoral saviors.

Yet it’s not just Americans who have given themselves over to political gods, however.

Evangelical Christians, seduced by electoral promises of power and religious domination, have become yet another tool in the politician’s toolbox.

For instance, repeatedly conned into believing that Republican candidates from George W. Bush to Donald Trump will save the church, evangelical Christians have turned the ballot box into a referendum on morality. Yet in doing so, they have shown themselves to be as willing to support totalitarian tactics as those on the Left.

This was exactly what theologian Francis Schaeffer warned against: “We must not confuse the Kingdom of God with our country. To say it another way, ‘We should not wrap Christianity in our national flag.’”

Equating religion and politics, and allowing the ends to justify the means, only empowers tyrants and lays the groundwork for totalitarianism.

This way lies madness and the certain loss of our freedoms.

If you must vote, vote, but don’t make the mistake of consecrating the ballot box.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it doesn’t matter what religion a particular candidate claims to subscribe to: all politicians answer to their own higher power, which is the Deep State.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2024 - 23:25

USA Has More Millionaires Than The Entire Population Of Ireland

USA Has More Millionaires Than The Entire Population Of Ireland

The world’s total millionaire count comes in at 15 million, more than all of Rwanda, the 28th most populous African country.

In this visualization, Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao shows the top 10 countries with the largest millionaire populations and compare each to a country with a similar total population.

Data for this graphic is sourced from Henley & Partners and the World Bank, current to 2024. Importantly, a millionaire is someone with liquid investable wealth of $1 million or more.

Millionaire Populations vs. Countries

At the top of the list, the U.S. has the most millionaires in the world, at nearly 5.5 million. For comparison, this is more than the entire population of Ireland.

Note: Figures rounded.

In just 10 years, the number of U.S. millionaires has jumped 62%, and in 2024, it accounts for more than one-third of all millionaires worldwide.

As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. draws millionaires from other countries, looking for opportunities in further wealth creation.

While no other country has such a high millionaire count, it’s interesting to contextualize just how many millionaires there are all over the world.

For example, China has 860,000 millionaires, more than the people in the South American nation of Guyana. And Germany has slightly over 800,000 millionaires and they could single-handedly replace all of Bhutan’s population.

Perhaps most interesting is Switzerland, whose millionaire population (428,000) could replace Iceland. Switzerland’s population itself comes in at around 8 million, which means one out of every 20 Swiss residents has over $1 million of investable wealth.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2024 - 23:00

A Tale Of Two Diagrams

A Tale Of Two Diagrams

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

Are Local Police Deflecting Blame for Assassination Attempt?

Ahead of Tuesday’s Senate grilling of acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe, local Pennsylvania police released a curious diagram from the July 13 rally in Butler that ended in an assassination attempt of former President Trump, the death of rally-goer Corey Comperatore, and injuries of two others.

The aerial photo of the event site, the Butler Farm Show, contained labels for the locations of Butler County and Beaver County police assets, including two local law enforcement “snipers” assigned to cover the American Glass Research building, where shooter Thomas Crooks perched with his AR-15 rifle about 150 yards from Trump’s onstage performance and fired eight bullets at the former president and the crowd.

The diagram includes a narrow red triangle, clearly labeled “Beaver Sniper Line of Sight.” That line of sight is narrowly conscribed between the location of the snipers inside the AGR building to the stage and pointedly does not cover any area of the rooftop where Crooks ran across and then stopped to open fire.

A diagram released by Secret Service Acting Director Ronald Rowe shows an aerial view of the event site. United States Secret Service

The narrow scope of the red triangle’s purported “line of sight” immediately stood out to some sources within the Secret Service community as purposefully narrowly constructed so as to try to prove that the local snipers never had any portion of the AGR building rooftop in their line of sight and therefore were not at fault for failing to monitor that rooftop.

Either the red vector was drawn deliberately to avoid responsibility, or it does not include any part of the roof by sheer accident,” one source told RealClearPolitics. “Either way, no one had eyes on the [AGR] roof.”

The shooter likely moved to his left to put a tree between himself and the Secret Service counter snipers who were positioned behind the stage, the source suggested after watching a recently released cell phone video from a rallygoer showing Crooks – in plain view from the stage – running along the rooftop before stopping and firing the eight shots.

But the narrow nature of the red-triangle line of sight doesn’t sit well with many law enforcement sources who asserted that a local police sniper would have had a much wider line of sight perspective that included most of the AGR roof, if sitting close to the window’s edge and constantly looking out.

In other words, he would have seen Crooks, if he had properly done his job, the sources argued.  

“If you are handling your window post properly, you would have seen and maybe heard him on the tin roof,” one source remarked. “If local snipers weren’t supposed to cover the roof, then what could possibly have been their role? Covering grass?”

Acting Secret Service Director Rowe, during his Senate testimony on Tuesday, put out a more simplified diagram showing a direct line of sight, or view of the entire AGR rooftop from where the local snipers were positioned.

Why was the assailant not seen when we were told that building was going to be covered?” Rowe angrily demanded during his Tuesday testimony. “That there had been a face-to-face that afternoon – that our team leads met.

“This was the view,” Rowe said, pointing to a photo of the AGR building’s rooftop. “These were discussions that were had between the [Secret Service’s] Pittsburgh Field Office, the local counterparts, and everyone supporting that visit that day.”

Rowe went on to describe his visit to the Butler rally site and said he laid down on the AGR rooftop to recreate the line of sight that Crooks had.

“That’s why when I laid in that position, I could not, and I will not, and I cannot understand why there was not better coverage or at least somebody looking at that roofline when that’s where they were posted.”

Lawmakers and Secret Service officials and sources have repeatedly traded accusations over the failure to man or surveil the AGR rooftop in the 20 days since a bullet pierced Trump’s ear and killed Comperatore. Headlines have criticized Rowe for blaming local partners and not fully explaining whether the Secret Service assigned the local snipers to the AGR rooftop, instead of inside the building.

The Secret Service’s shifting narrative for that failure has been the butt of viral memes and jokes after former Secret Service Director Kim Cheatle told ABC News in her only media interview that it wasn’t manned because it was sloped and too dangerous to place Secret Service or local law enforcement on it. Instead, she said, “the decision was made to secure the building from inside.”

In her testimony before the House Oversight Committee nearly a week later, Cheatle was ridiculed over that explanation and several members of Congress said it was the final straw leading to their calls for her resignation, which she submitted one day after the hearing.

Local law enforcement officials have also cited a complete breakdown in communications, with local police who were tracking Crooks siloed from the Secret Service when they are supposed to have interoperability and coordinated communications through a joint command post. (They are never on the same radio frequencies because synchronizing them is technically impossible, but communications are supposed to be coordinated through the command post.)

It’s unclear if that joint command post with representatives from local law enforcement paired with senior Secret Service agents existed that day in its typical form.

Sources in the Secret Service community have privately brushed off accusations from the local police that senior special agents never showed up for a briefing for all local officers assigned to the Farm Show grounds that day. The sources told RCP that they don’t usually provide briefings for every local police officer but the top agents in charge of the site security do conduct a detailed walk-through with top supervisors of local police.

It wouldn’t hurt, some sources suggested, if the Secret Service starts to utilize a written legal agreement signed between the agency and local law enforcement laying out legal liability if one side or the other fails to properly carry out responsibilities.

The agency simply doesn’t have the manpower to fully staff the events themselves, and even if Congress were to immediately provide more funding for additional hires, it takes nearly a year for an agent to get hired and minimally trained.

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, engaged in a heated exchange with Rowe during his testimony last Tuesday, demanding to know why no one at the agency had been fired yet over the failures.

Rowe, however, did confirm to Hawley that the Secret Service refused drones from local law enforcement, a detail brought to light by whistleblower allegations brought to Hawley’s office. Hawley also has said that whistleblowers told him that local police snipers were assigned to the AGR rooftop but abandoned their post and went inside because it was too hot.

Videos of alarmed rally-goers near the building pointing to Crooks and shouting that he was on the roof several minutes before the shots rang out have only heightened criticism of the Secret Service and law enforcement failures that day.

Pennsylvania State Police Col. Christopher Paris testified before Congress on July 23 that in a meeting before the shooting, “We were told that Butler ESU was responsible for that area, by several Secret Service agents on that walk-through.” Paris was referencing the AGR building.

Paris also said it was his understanding that ESU officers left their post to look for a suspicious person. He added that he was not sure if those officers could have seen Crooks if they had stayed at their post.

Butler County District Attorney Richard Goldinger, who would be responsible for defending at least one of the local snipers’ actions that day if criminal charges were ever brought against the police department, pushed back against Paris’ testimony amid the ongoing finger-pointing between local law enforcement and the Secret Service.

Goldinger said that Paris’ testimony “misstated” local law enforcement’s response after snipers first spotted Crooks 20 minutes prior to the shooting. He said the two local snipers snapped a photo Crooks, who was seated outside the AGR complex, and circulated it along with noting that he was a “suspicious individual” to the “command center” for the Secret Service and the local police.

Goldinger asserted that “at some point,” Crooks got up and moved to the other side of the building, spurring local law enforcement to move within the building in an “attempt to keep eyes” on the suspect.

One of the local snipers, from his location inside the building, noticed Crooks was sitting on a picnic table with a backpack in front of the building. It was only then that one of the officers ran outside to look for Crooks after seeing him run away. The other officer remained in his position on the second floor of the building, according to Goldinger.

The other sniper returned to their post inside the building after failing to locate Crooks outside.

“Neither officer could see Crooks on the other building due to the visual angle they had from their location to Crook’s location,” Goldinger said.

Both officers, he added, were at their predetermined posts when Crooks opened fire.

“Their post was the building,” Goldinger stressed. “While one of the officers did leave the building briefly, it was in response to a suspicious person who had not encountered law enforcement despite them notifying other law enforcement of the suspicious person. Even so, that officer returned to the post, and the post was never left vacant as the other officer remained in the building.”

To say that these officers left their post is a misstatement,” he added.

“These ESU officers and all of the other ESU officers, volunteered their time to be present for the rally to assist the Secret Service. They performed the duties to which they were assigned.”

Yet, the Pennsylvania State Police told Fox News that the agency stands by Paris’ testimony.

According to a partially redacted timeline in an after-action report from the Beaver County police, the police first observed Crooks at 5:10 p.m., then took photos of him at 5:14 p.m., and then spotted him looking at news feeds on his cell phone, and getting out a range finder. The Butler police then called into “command” about a suspect, communicating the description and the range finder and reporting that Crooks was “lurking around the AGR building.”

At 5:45 p.m., there was a text sent to a Beaver ESU command about the suspect, and the person who sent it was told to relay it to “command,” although it’s unclear whether that means the Secret Service command. It wasn’t until 5:55 p.m. that someone on the local team acknowledged sending it to “command.” In a redacted section of the timeline, there’s mention of a redacted individual or entity asking for the direction of the suspect’s travel at 6 p.m., and it wasn’t until 6:05 p.m. that someone spied Crooks at picnic tables and moving with a backpack on.

Then in line with the timing from 6:06 p.m. to 6:12 p.m., one of the local snipers stationed at the AGR building went downstairs to meet “a patrol” and let them know the suspect was “around the building on the side of the fairgrounds.”

At 6:12 p.m., Crooks fired off the shots, and then at an “unknown time” the shooter was “down,” according to the timeline.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2024 - 22:35

Israel Vows To Eliminate New Hamas Chief Sinwar, Seen As Even Closer To Tehran

Israel Vows To Eliminate New Hamas Chief Sinwar, Seen As Even Closer To Tehran

Israel has vowed to "eliminate" new Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, who just yesterday was announced as the new political leader of Hamas, replacing the slain Ismail Haniyeh, killed in Tehran by an Israeli covert assassination operation on July 31st.

Among some alernative possible options for the top leadership spot were candidates deemed 'moderate' by comparison, but Hamas' choosing Sinwar is intended to send a firm message that the Gaza-based organization will "continue its path of resistance," according to a statement.

Sinwar, who was Hamas military leader in Gaza since 2017, is considered the mastermind behind the Oct.7 terror attack on southern Israel. He is also seen as closer to Tehran compared to the late Haniyeh, who had lived in Qatar. Few outsiders have laid eyes on Sinwar in years, and it's widely believed he's been commanding operations from tunnels deep below Gaza throughout the war which is now in its 11th month.

New Hamas Yahya Sinwar, AFP

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said late Tuesday that Sinwar being named to the Hamas top leadership spot is "yet another compelling reason to swiftly eliminate him and wipe this vile organization off the face of the earth."

A statement from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already blamed Sinwar for lack of progress in Qatar-mediated ceasefire talks

American and Israeli officials have accused Hamas of intransigence over the deal, and they say Mr. Sinwar has always had the power to veto any proposal, given his leadership of the group in Gaza. Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, said the announcement on Tuesday would reinforce that role.

The choice of Mr. Sinwar “only underscores the fact that it is really on him to decide whether to move forward with a cease-fire,” Mr. Blinken said at a news conference in Annapolis, Md., late Tuesday, shortly after the appointment was announced. “He has been and remains the primary decider when it comes to concluding a cease-fire.”

Sinwar had spent two decades in an Israeli prison - a long stint which began in 1988 for murdering four Palestinians on suspicion of collaborating with Israel.

He reportedly spent much of that time not only learning Hebrew, but closely studying Israeli culture and politics in order to 'understand the enemy'. The NY Times writes of his background

When he was released from Israeli prison in a prisoner swap in 2011, Mr. Sinwar said that the capture of Israeli soldiers was, after years of failed negotiations, the proven tactic for freeing Palestinians incarcerated by Israel.

"For the prisoner, capturing an Israeli soldier is the best news in the universe, because he knows that a glimmer of hope has been opened for him,” Mr. Sinwar said at the time.

During his time in prison, Sinwar tried to escape several times, and once told an Italian newspaper that "Prison builds you" as it allows a person to understand the level of sacrifice needed to achieve their goals.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2024 - 22:10

Whack-A-Fallacy: A Game For The Election Season

Whack-A-Fallacy: A Game For The Election Season

Authored by Jeff Minick via The Epoch Times,

In Whack-a-Mole, an arcade game invented by the Japanese nearly 50 years ago, moles or other figures pop up from different holes mounted on a playing cabinet while players use a soft mallet to try and knock them back into place. Search online for “whack-a-mole game,” and you’ll find lots of variations based on the original.

With that model in mind, and with the election season fast upon us, now seems a good time to have a go at Whack-a-Fallacy, my own addition to this genre of sport. For equipment, you need a screen for watching speeches and press conferences, a pen or pencil, a pad of paper, and a timer. The rules are just as simple. Before beginning play, write down the fallacies you are looking to detect on the pad of paper. On your television or phone, find the event you’ve selected, a politician delivering a public address, engaging in debate, or holding a press conference. Start the timer, and every time a fallacy on your pad pops up, jot down a hash mark beside it.

To help you get started, below are some common logical fallacies by which politicians—and the rest of us, for that matter—slip illogical arguments into their verbal punches.

The Ad Hominem Attack

This one is quite common, particularly in heated political arguments, and easily spotted. The user ignores the argument and the issue at hand to personally attack an opponent. Ad hominem assaults can also be delivered against entire groups of people united by similar ideas or goals.

Name-calling or innuendo are the weapons of choice here. “You’re no scientist, so why don’t you stick to what you know?” is an ad hominem tactic to avoid a debate. “Senator X wants to send our troops to the Middle East, but he’s never served in the military.”

Keep your eye out for this one, and you’re sure to rack up points.

Red Herring

This fish fry fallacy occurs when the speaker attempts to slide away from the original topic. A person losing an argument may try to change the topic by bringing up the weather or pointing out some extraneous detail from last night’s party. One woman I know can deflect attention from the matter at hand just by saying, “Interesting,” and then telling an anecdote from her workplace.

Under fire at a press conference about the shape of the American economy, a candidate for reelection to the Senate may suddenly reply, “Look, this isn’t the main issue of our day. The main issue is climate change,” and he continues on from there with his concerns about melting polar caps and gas-powered vehicles. Down that rabbit hole he scurries, and the issue of the economy disappears.

The False Dilemma

Most of us frequently resort to either/or propositions, seeing only two possible choices when there may in fact be several. “We can go bowling or go to the movies,” a teen says to friends, but they could also play video games, take a long walk, or study for Monday’s math test. “Would you rather become a sculptor or keep working your 9-5 job?” leaves out the possibility of doing both.

Politicians love false dilemmas in part because they create fear. “Vote for me or America will become a dictatorship.” “Vote for my opponent, and you are condemning your children to a life of ignorance.” “If you don’t vote for me, you are a bigot.”

Appeals to Celebrity Authority

This is a subdivision of an appeal to a false authority, and is both common and easy to spot, as may be seen when a movie star endorses a particular car or a sports figure gives her stamp of approval to a brand of toothpaste.

We’ll see this fallacy at work everywhere this fall. A film personality will appear on a talk show or a podcast to appeal to voters to support a candidate. A pop musician will pause on stage to attack a politician, often knowing less about that candidate or the issues of the day than the ordinary citizen.

Listen up for this fallacy, and you can run up that tally faster than you’d ever imagine.

Bandwagon Fallacy

Anyone raising teenagers is familiar with this one. “But Mom, everybody’s going to the concert!” “But Dad, nobody does well in Mr. Caldwell’s math class!” If everyone is on the bandwagon, goes this fallacy, then it’s surely the place to be.

Watch out for politicians who claim to speak for all Americans. That bandwagon doesn’t exist except in his or her mind. Watch out for politicians who speak about being on the wrong side of history. Beware of anyone who uses the phrase “science says.” These are attempts to get you to leap aboard the bandwagon.

If you want to add other fallacies to your list, simply explore online for “logical fallacies,” and you’ll find such classics as the straw man fallacy, circular reasoning, and slippery slope, along with examples of each.

Of course, my point here isn’t my made-up game of Whack-a-Fallacy. My point is that we should listen carefully to what our politicians are saying. We may not be playing a game, but we may well be getting played.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2024 - 21:45

Coming Clean On Clean Energy: It's A Dirty Business

Coming Clean On Clean Energy: It's A Dirty Business

Authored by Kristen Walker via RealClearEnergy,

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you are probably aware of the massive push to transition to green energy. The goal is to have wind and solar replace coal and natural gas; the electric vehicle (EV) will supposedly replace internal combustion engines. Directives are coming from the highest office in the land; the current administration has made green energy a large part of its agenda.

We are being told that these technologies are clean and will save the planet from climate change. However, these alternative forms of energy being espoused are riddled with their own problems.

Hidden behind the solar panels, wind turbines, and EV batteries are some dirty secrets that get swept under the rug and ignored by climate enthusiasts. Fossil fuels are constantly put under a microscope and condemned as an evil destructive polluter; green energy is typically put on a pedestal. Green energy, however, is not as perfect and wonderful as we are made to believe. Yet, we are putting a lot of trust into these energy sources, without considering their ramifications.

The American Consumer Institute just released a report detailing many of the environmental impacts associated with the so-called green energy forms being heavily promoted. The life cycle of all three—the wind turbine, solar panel, and EV battery—involve significant environmental consequences that should not be overlooked and need to be part of the discussion when implementing energy policies.

One of the biggest issues involved with these forms is the extraction and manufacturing processes of various critical minerals that are required for wind turbines, solar panels, and EV batteries. Many underdeveloped nations, where there’s an abundance of minerals, are at risk. The operations and procedures not only overtake land but contaminate surrounding soil and water sources. In the worst cases, this work is accomplished through slave labor.

Various toxins and other greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere, where workers and even nearby communities are potentially affected. Landscape is tarnished and various animal habitats are shrinking and/or experiencing stress. The massive amount of land occupied by both wind and solar may never be recoverable.

China dominates the green energy supply chains, but their environmental standards are subpar. CO2 emissions associated with refineries in China are 1.5 times greater than those in the EU or U.S.

All three energy sources are also creating a huge waste problem. Since any kind of recycling is very limited on a large scale, more than 90% wind turbine blades, solar panels, and EV batteries end up in landfills. By 2050 it is predicted that used turbine blades will exceed 43 million tons of waste worldwide. Solar waste is predicted to be close to 80 million tons. And with the U.S. projecting 33 million EVs on the road by 2030, that is a lot of batteries to end up in landfills.

Ironically, the same folks who want to charge customers for every plastic bag they use at the grocery store, out of fear of single-use plastics ending up in landfills, don’t seem to have a problem with potentially toxic machinery filling that space instead.

In a penchant for trying to solve one crisis, we are creating others.

Some of the environmental impacts and hazards posed by green energy are far more detrimental than fossil fuels, and yet the latter is often dismissed. Such risks associated with green technologies should actually be an argument against vigorous pursuit of them. 

Each energy source, including fossil fuels, should be considered as part of an all-of-the-above strategy for supplying the necessary energy to power homes, businesses, and the U.S. economy at large. All of them come with some degree of environmental concerns, and each should be weighed and measured—along with costs, logistics, reliability, and geopolitical factors—when developing public policy. Instead of completely trying to phase out fossil fuels, a robust and healthy energy mix ought to be established; we need a balanced approach that does not breed additional problems.

It is past time to come clean on so-called clean energy. The real-life consequences and detrimental effects of it demand more honest conversations and a thoughtful course of action.

Kristen Walker is a policy analyst for the American Consumer Institute, a nonprofit education and research organization. For more information about the Institute, visit www.theamericanconsumer.org or follow us on Twitter @ConsumerPal

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2024 - 20:55

Copper Slumps As China Dumps Base Metal Into Asian Warehouses

Copper Slumps As China Dumps Base Metal Into Asian Warehouses

Copper inventories in Asian warehouses are swelling at an incredibly fast pace as the base metal that led the 'Next AI Trade' is under pressure once again, hitting the lowest levels in four months. The refined metal is flowing out of China into neighboring warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan, indicating that more downside for prices is ahead. 

Goldman's Adam Gillard told clients this AM that the copper "surplus continues to build; think price grinds lower despite the recent positioning cleanse until the State Grid return." 

Gillard highlighted that copper stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange in Asia have surged to their highest levels since mid-2018. Since peaking at $10,889 in mid-May, LME 3-month rolling forward copper prices have declined by over 18%, currently hovering around $8,928.

Although Asian inventory builds from legacy Chinese tolling exports are not new, today's 40k MT delivery was a surprise basis July Chinese exports (because we thought most of what China exported had become visible already). The bull stock-out thesis was in part predicated on a tight supply chain given negative carry and high rates. Said another way, there shouldn't be this much metal left in the woodwork to become visible.

Asian LME inventory is the highest since mid-2018. 

Gillard observed that the surge in stockpiles at warehouses is now showing up in global inventory levels: 

Global visible inventory: Taking 40k MT from July US imports (difference vs trend) and adding to CMX inventories results in total visible copper inventory of 794k MT vs 262k MT a/o January 1.

An abrupt surge... 

"Whilst we concede it's sketchy data BBG are reporting July US imports at 76k MT, an ATH (in response to May CMX / LME arb blowout)," Gillard noted about US imports of the base metal. 

Rising warehouse inventories indicate a continued slowdown in China. Bloomberg reported that the world's second-largest economy has started "exporting in unusually high volumes in recent months," effectively exporting deflation. Additionally, concerns about a slowdown in the US have surfaced in recent days. 

However, Chinese smelter production is still running above average.

Gillard also noted, "LME spec length has dropped to $4bn vs $19bn at the highs during the recent sell off." 

And he said CTAs are still shot. 

In mid-May, around the time copper prices peaked, Jeff Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman Sachs for nearly three decades and now serves as the chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, stated that the copper trade was the "most compelling trade" he has seen in his "30 plus years of doing this" because it's "got green CapEx, it's got AI, remember AI can't happen without the energy demand and the constraint on the electricity grid is going to be copper."

On May 15, The Market Ear penned a note to subs about an "overheated" copper market. 

On June 8, Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahim said, "Prices of non-ferrous metals have moved much higher than fundamentals in the physical spot market might indicate or justify, especially for copper." 

Hmm. 

What's clear is that the AI theme has run its course for now, overshadowed by China exporting deflation to the world.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/07/2024 - 20:30

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