ADP Weekly Employment Data Shows Labor Market Rebounding In December

Since the start of the government shutdown, what labor market data indications we got actually surprised to the upside (while soft survey data crashed)...

...but now, as the data starts to re-emerge from its slumber, it remains mixed with jobless claims data remaining solid to say the least while JOLTS leaves questions about the low-hire, low-fire, low-quits economy. If one data set has bee noisy through the past few weeks, it's ADP (and its new weekly updated prints). Analysts expected a 16.25k average job gain per week over the past four weeks... but the print was just +11.5k (46k on a monthly basis) for the week-ending Dec 6th, with the prior week's average revised up strongly to +17.5k (+70k monthly).

Source: Bloomberg

That is the third straight week of month-over-month gains for the labor market after a brief slump as the government shutdown started.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 08:22

The Challenge For 2026 Markets

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and begins predicting returns for 2026. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, which would be unwise for fee-based product revenues, these forecasts are often inaccurate and sometimes significantly wrong. Let’s review some previous years. For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022.

“There is one thing about Goldman Sachs that is always consistent; they are ‘bullish.’ Of course, given that the market is positive more often than negative, it ‘pays’ to be bullish when your company sells products to hungry investors. It is important to remember that Goldman Sachs was wrong when it was most important, particularly in 2000 and 2008. However, in keeping with its traditional bullishness, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin forecasted the S&P 500 will climb by 9% to 5100 at year-end 2022. As he notes, such will “reflect a prospective total return of 10% including dividends.”

The problem, of course, is that the S&P 500 did NOT end the year at 5100.

Then, in 2022, Wall Street predicted a modest return of just 3.9% for 2023.

Of course, reality turned out to be markedly different.

The same trend was observed in 2023, 2024, and 2025 as Wall Street grossly underestimated the forward market return. Heading into 2025, Wall Street predicted a median return of just 8.2% with the highest estimate of nearly 15%. As we wrap up the year, the market is again closing in on a 20% return, marking the third consecutive year of such performance.

However, while analysts repeatedly fail at the guessing game, Wall Street’s annual tradition is always of higher returns. To borrow a quote:

“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr

Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predicting the future is difficult at best and impossible at worst. If we could accurately predict the future, fortune tellers would win all the lotteries, psychics would be more prosperous than Elon Musk, and portfolio managers would always beat the index.

However, this is never the case, and as investors, we must rely on our data, analyze past events, filter out the current noise, and discern possible future outcomes. The biggest problem with Wall Street today and in the past is its consistent disregard for the unexpected and random events that inevitably occur, like the “Liberation Day” tariff event that sent the market plunging by nearly 20%. However, even when such events occur frequently, from trade wars to Brexit to Fed policy and a global pandemic, Wall Street analysts were often convinced that such things would not happen.

So what about 2026? We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are primarily optimistic for the coming year. The median estimate for 2026 is for the market to rise to 7500 next year, which would be a disappointing return of just 9.3% after three years of 20% gains. However, the high estimate from Deutsche Bank suggests a 15% return, while the low estimate from BofA is just 4%. Notably, not one firm forecasts a negative return.

There are several risks to these forecasts.

The Challenge For 2026

As of this writing, the market appears poised to close the year above 6,800. That’s roughly a 17% percent gain for the year based on price appreciation. That advance was a combination of AI-fueled enthusiasm, softening inflation, and hopes of Fed rate cuts and increased liquidity. However, under the surface, the setup for 2026 looks increasingly fragile. Valuations are stretched, expectations are optimistic, and earnings have little room for error.

Let’s start with the data. The current trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio sits at 26, near historic extremes. The Shiller CAPE ratio, which adjusts for inflation and smooths cycles over a decade, stands near 39. Forward P/E estimates for 2026 earnings are in the 23 range. By almost every measure, equities are priced at levels that historically limit future returns.

However, this also presents a risk that investors need to be prepared for. At current valuation levels, stocks don’t need a crisis to fall; they only need disappointment. If growth falls short, or if the Fed doesn’t deliver the cuts the market expects, equities face pressure. In other words, a “recession” is not the risk; it is just anything that is “less than perfect.”

Wall Street, of course, is bullish. That’s the default setting. Morgan Stanley is calling for a 14 percent gain. Goldman Sachs projects double-digit earnings growth. Deutsche Bank has a target of 8,000 for the S&P 500. But look closer. These forecasts assume strong profit growth, stable inflation, and rate cuts starting in mid-2026, which is a very tight window.

However, investors have heard this before, but have also seen what happens when markets get ahead of reality. That leaves the setup for 2026 a little less bullish, as elevated expectations and high valuations leave minimal margin for error.

Valuation Math: What the Numbers Suggest for 2026

To make sense of where the S&P 500 could go in 2026, we don’t need a prediction, just a calculator. Rather than guessing, we prefer to let “valuations do the talking.” The reason is that valuations represent investor sentiment based on the outlook for earnings growth. If forward earnings growth is strong, investors can overpay for equities today, anticipating that earnings will justify the overpayment. However, if earnings expectations start to fall, investors will reprice the markets for lower premiums.

As shown below, we ran multiple scenarios based on forward earnings estimates, valuation ranges, and historical outcomes. The S&P 500 begins the year near 6,900, our base case, and from there, outcomes depend on whether multiples expand, hold, or contract. For the earnings analysis, we are using S&P Global’s forward 2026 reported earnings per share estimate of $282, which will likely be the high-water mark for 2026. Therefore, we will assume that these estimates are accurate, and we can then incorporate valuation multiples and predict forward market returns.

Here are the scenarios, based on $282 per share: (Note: There are an infinite number of possibilities that could occur in 2026. The point of the following discussion is to understand the math of valuations as it relates to market risk next year.)

Optimistic Case (Multiple Expansion): Bullish investor sentiment persists, and risk-taking intensifies, resulting in a multiple expansion to 29x. Such a prediction would suggest a figure close to Deutsche Bank’s current 2026 estimate of 8,000 as a year-end target. As shown, at 29 times earnings, the year target would be $ 8,185, or a roughly 18% gain.

Neutral Case (Maintain Current Multiples): This scenario assumes that, while the bullish market persists, concerns over monetary policy, inflation, or earnings growth rates will keep multiples stable at 26x forward earnings. Such a scenario would allow the index to rise to 7,338, representing a more historically normal 6% gain in 2026. Such a muted return will be very disappointing after three years of nearly 20% gains.

Slow-Down Case: If we assume an economic slowdown that impacts forward earnings expectations, such a scenario would potentially lead to a reversion in valuations toward its 5-year average of 22x. Such a decline would likely result in a market value of 6,209, or a negative return of approximately 10%.

Recession Case: The most likely worst-case outcome, barring a financial or credit-related event next year, is the onset of a mild recession. While such an event is likely a low-probability occurrence in 2026, a scenario like this would likely lead to more severe earnings disappointment and market repricing. If such were to occur, a valuation contraction toward 18 times earnings is possible, with a price decline in the index towards 5080, taking markets back to the 2021 peak, or a 26% correction.

Notice this: even a mild reversion in valuations creates downside. If earnings flatten and multiples fall to 20, that’s enough to limit or erase gains. If both earnings and valuations fall short, returns turn negative fast. This makes managing risk less simple in 2026. While high valuations reduce forward returns, they do not guarantee losses. However, high valuations leave “no cushion” if things go sideways.

This is not a time for aggressive positioning. It’s a time to respect the math.

Risk Factors: What Could Go Wrong in 2026

Markets don’t move in straight lines. The problem with 2026 isn’t a forecast. It’s the imbalance between expectations and risk. Everything must go right for stocks to deliver strong returns from current levels. But there’s plenty that could go wrong. As shown in the table below, since 2009, investors have enjoyed annualized real returns in the market that are 50% higher than the historic returns from 1900 to the present. Those returns were a function of near-zero interest rates, massive liquidity injections, and a valuation reversion following the 2008 crisis. None of those supports is currently available as we head into 2026.

Here is another risk. The current 3-year return is 18% above its 3-year average. While that is not the highest level on record, when the index trades significantly above its moving average, volatility tends to rise. These periods often see sharp drawdowns, and corrections become more frequent, with increased variance in returns leading to larger losses in downturns, which compounds the problem. Secondly, there are declining risk-adjusted returns. When returns deviate significantly from the trend, future returns tend to revert toward the mean. This mean reversion is driven by stretched valuations resetting. Over time, high volatility and large price swings reduce compound returns. Even if average returns remain positive, the math of compounding is compromised by losses, weakening full-cycle gains.

Secondly, the economy is forecasted to grow around 2 percent, but there are signs of slowing. With consumer debt levels rising, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans inching higher, and student loan repayments resuming, those factors weigh on discretionary spending.

Third, while the Fed is cutting rates, investors have already priced those cuts into the market. However, inflation remains sticky, wage growth is still elevated, and jobless claims remain near lows. As such, if the Fed hesitates or signals fewer cuts, this could pressure valuation multiples, especially for growth stocks.

Fourth, consensus earnings remain extremely optimistic in relation to expectations for economic growth and inflation. That requires strong margins, global stability, and continued AI-driven demand. If any of these falter, earnings estimates will fall, and investors will reprice markets for lower multiples.

Finally, the 2025 rally was led by a small group of stocks with only about 37% of all issues outperforming the index. If leadership narrows or stalls, the index could struggle even if broader conditions remain stable.

Investors should also watch geopolitical risk. U.S. midterm elections, global conflict, or supply chain issues could disrupt assumptions; however, these are secondary concerns. The core issue remains earnings versus valuation. The higher the price you pay, the smaller the margin for error.

While this market is priced for a smooth glide path, the odds of turbulence are rising.

Strategy: What Investors Should Do Next

The playbook for 2026 isn’t about guessing market direction. It’s about managing risk, and understanding that with valuations high, earnings uncertain, and monetary policy in transition, your best move is preparation, not prediction.

The chart below combines the four potential predictions to show the possible market range for next year. Of course, you can analyze, make valuation assumptions, and derive your targets for next year based on your views. This analysis is an exercise in logic to develop a range of possibilities and probabilities over the next 12 months.

Valuations matter. At this stage of the cycle, you need to be more cautious—not more aggressive. Here’s how to position:

• Lower your return expectations. If you’re assuming another 15 to 20 percent gain next year, you’re betting against the data. Valuation history suggests forward returns will be lower, especially if earnings growth slows. A more reasonable expectation is mid-single-digit returns, with higher volatility.
• Reduce exposure to sectors with extreme valuations. AI might be real, but prices already assume perfection. Don’t abandon growth, but rotate toward quality. Look for companies with real cash flow, low leverage, and strong pricing power.
• Focus on quality. Companies with strong cash flow, low debt, and pricing power are likely to outperform in slower-growth environments.
• Increase Fixed Income. High-quality fixed income will shield portfolios against increased market volatility.
• Hold some cash. Not because you’re timing the market, but because flexibility matters. If volatility spikes, you want dry powder. That also gives you a chance to buy quality at a discount if the market pulls back.
• Most importantly, stop chasing narratives. AI is real, but that doesn’t make every AI stock a buy. The same goes for the “soft landing” story. Focus on the numbers. Stick with fundamentals.

In 2026, outcomes will depend on earnings, inflation, and the actions of the Fed. However, your results will vary based on your risk-management discipline, allocations, and portfolio structure. As such, it is important not to overreach, not to assume past returns will repeat, and to respect valuations.

That’s how you protect capital, and ultimately stay in the game when others can’t.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 08:05

President Unveils 'Trump Class' Of Warships, Huntington Ingalls Shares Jump

Shares of warship builder Huntington Ingalls Industries rose in premarket trading and are on track for the largest annual gain in 12 years, driven by news of President Trump's continued push to rebuild the U.S. Navy.

HII gained 5% on Monday and another 5% in premarket trading early Tuesday after President Trump announced a plan on Monday evening to build two new "Trump-class" battleships, to acquire 20-25 of these ships in the coming years.

Here are critical details about Trump's major announcement Monday evening (courtesy of Goldman analyst Noah Poponak):

Trump-class battleships. On December 22, 2025 President Trump announced that he had approved a plan for the U.S. Navy to build two new "Trump-class" battleships, with the goal of acquiring 20-25 of these ships in the coming years.

In his address, the President noted these 30,000-40,000 ton ships will carry a large quantity of missiles, including hypersonic missiles, and will also be outfitted with electromagnetic rail guns and directed energy lasers.

Trump-class battleships will also carry nuclear-armed sea launched cruise missiles (currently under development) adding an additional element of nuclear deterrence to the Navy. Trump-class destroyers appear to be designed as the center of enhanced command and control networks at sea, as the Navy looks to field more autonomous assets and traditional vessels in the coming years.

The WSJ has reported that the U.S. Navy will launch a vendor competition, with plans to procure the first hull in 2030.

The first "Trump-class" battleship will be named USS Defiant, and it will be even longer than the Iowa-class battleships of the World War II era. However, at 35,000 tons, it will only weigh about half as much, and have a smaller crew of between 650 and 850 sailors; the Iowa had some 2,700 sailors. The new ships -- which are being called "guided missile battleships" --  are part of larger vision for a "Golden Fleet." The Navy has rolled out a website to promote that concept. Sources tell AP that construction of the Defiant is expected to start in the early 2030's, with another 19 to 24 Trump-class ships to follow. 

While they're being billed as "battleships," they'll differ from what that term has previously described -- heavily armored ships with massive guns. The Defiant will have hypersonic missiles, nuclear cruise missiles, rail guns, and high-powered lasers. All of those systems are currently under development, raising the odds that, like so many weapons programs, the Trump-class ships will blow past their budgets and due dates. Rail guns -- electromagnetic launchers whose projectiles unleash their damage via pure kinetic energy rather than explosives -- have a particularly notorious development history. The Navy invested more than 15 years and more than a half a billion dollars trying to equip warships with rail guns before giving up in 2021.  

"Engineered to outmatch any foreign adversary, the new battleship class will be the centerpiece of naval power," said the Navy in a press release. "At triple the size of an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, its massive frame provides superior firepower, larger missile magazines, and the capability to launch Conventional Prompt Strike hypersonic missiles and the Surface Launch Cruise Missile-Nuclear." 

Key technical specifications: 

• Length: 840-880'
• Beam: 105-115'
• Draft: 24-30'
• Speed: 30+ knots
• Main Battery: Nuclear Surface Launch Cruise Missile (SLCM-N), hypersonic missiles, vertical launch missiles
• Secondary Battery: 1 x 32-megagoule railgun with hypervelocity projectile (HVP), 2 x 5" gun with HVP, 2 x 300 kW or 2 x 600kW lasers
• Defensive Battery: 2 x rolling airframe missile launchers, 4 x 30mm guns, 4 x ODIN lasers, 2 x counter-UxS (drone) systems 

Promising to treat weapons systems like an Oval Office update or a new ballroom, Trump said he'll be very much a part of the design process. "The U.S. Navy will lead the design of these ships along with me, because I'm a very aesthetic person," he said Monday. Trump has previously said he altered the design of the since-nixed Constellation-class frigates, after seeing one under construction in a shipyard and finding it lacked curb appeal. "The ships that they were building, they looked terrible," Trump said in a 2020 speech. "I changed designs. I looked at it, I said, 'That's a terrible-looking ship, let's make it beautiful'." 

Poponak told clients that his 12-month price target for HII was upgraded to $384 from $356.

This year, HII shares are up a whopping 87%, the largest annual increase since the 107% increase in 2013.

Shares are at record high levels.

The S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense Index nears record highs.

Secretary of the Navy John Phelan recently said that the U.S. military will be acquiring a "new frigate class based on HII's Legend-Class National Security Cutter design."

Earlier this year, HII stock had one of the largest intraday gains on record as Trump touted his move to revitalize domestic shipbuilders.

All of this plays into the total reposturing of the U.S. military to focus on Western hemispheric defense and securing the hemisphere ahead of the 2030s. We've outlined how to profit from this (read here). 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 07:45

"Much-Needed Win": Novo Shares Jump Most In Nearly Two Years After US Approval Of Wegovy Obesity Pill

Novo Nordisk shares in Europe jumped the most in nearly two years after the U.S. FDA approved the Wegovy pill, a once-daily 25 mg oral semaglutide, for long-term weight loss, weight maintenance, and reduction of major adverse cardiovascular events. The approval marks a much-needed win for the struggling Danish pharmaceutical company, which has been hit by market share losses to GLP-1 knockoffs.

"The Wegovy pill is the first oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist therapy approved for weight management," Novo wrote in a press release earlier on Tuesday.

Approval was based on the Oasis 4 trial, which showed patients taking the daily pill lost an average of 16.6% of body weight. The new pill will be available in the U.S. in early January and will be approved for long-term weight loss and weight maintenance.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman told clients the FDA approval gives the company a “much-needed win,” after the “recent challenges maintaining incretin market share dominance."

Seigerman said that Novo will “benefit from first-mover advantage, capturing patients with a preference for convenience and comfort provided by an oral dosing regimen." He noted that Eli Lilly’s rival pill, orforglipron, is "just around the corner."  

Novo shares in Copenhagen jumped more than 7%, the largest intra-day gain since March 2024. This surge of optimism in the stock comes as market-share losses have pressured it down 48% year to date.

Has a bottom finally formed?

Related:

• Novo Undercuts Lilly's Obesity Drug Price, Now Cheaper Than Car Payment

• Medicare Secures 71% Price Cut On Novo's Anti-Obesity Drug As Part Of Broad Affordability Push

• Novo Nordisk Plunges After Ozempic Pill Fails Alzheimer's Trials - Shares Suffer Worst Year Ever

• Goldman, UBS React To Novo Nordisk Axing 9,000 Jobs, Slashing Guidance Amid GLP-1 Headwinds

Will 2026 be a rebound here for Novo?

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 07:20

The Box Office Crisis Is Worse Than It Looks

Prior to the release of "Avatar: Fire and Ash" in the week before Christmas, 2025 was another disappointing year at the box office.

Statista's Felix Richer details below that, according to industry tracker The Numbers, this year's domestic box office gross will be roughly in line with last year's result, which fell short of the 2023 total, not to mention coming anywhere close to pre-pandemic levels.

At an estimated total of $8.6 billion, the North American box office fell 23 percent short of its 2019 performance last year and is currently projected to do the same in 2025.

While that sounds bad enough, it gets worse: looking at ticket sales, which takes rising ticket prices out of the equation, the results are more dire than the box office earnings would suggest.

Compared to 2019, ticket sales are down almost 40 percent, and, perhaps most concerning, the decline in ticket sales began long before the pandemic.

According to The Numbers, ticket sales of North American movie theaters peaked in the early 2000s. Since the turn of the millennium, they decline by 46 percent. Box office revenue, however, is up 14 percent since 2000, partially glossing over a weakness that goes beyond post-pandemic struggles.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While the short-term weakness can be explained by things like the 2023 Hollywood writers strikes, which created a scarcity of blockbuster releases, and economic hardship caused by inflation, the longer-term decline in ticket sales indicates that consumers are gradually falling out of love with the cinema.

While the first two factors will eventually recede, consumer habits appear to have changed for good and the film industry will have to find new ways to attract consumers, who are obviously enjoying to consume most video content in their own home, whenever they please.

Shortened theatrical release windows, a genie let out of the bottle when studios were desperate to make money during Covid lockdowns, don't help with this development, as consumers have even less incentive to go to the movies if they can enjoy the same film at home, possibly for free, just a few weeks later.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 06:55

DHS Offering $3,000 To Illegal Aliens To Self-Deport As Part Of Holiday Deal

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is offering triple the amount of cash to illegal immigrants who willingly leave the United States through a smartphone app as part of a “holiday deal.”

In this photo illustration, a phone displays the CBP Home App, on May 5, 2025. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

“Since January 2025, 1.9 million illegal aliens have voluntarily self-deported and tens of thousands have used the CBP Home program,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a Dec. 22 statement.

“During the Christmas Season, the U.S. taxpayer is so generously TRIPLING the incentive to leave voluntarily for those in this country illegally—offering a $3,000 exit bonus, but just until the end of the year.”

DHS earlier this year unveiled a plan for illegal immigrants to self-deport through the CBP One app, which allows them to receive $1,000 from the federal government upon leaving the United States. It also forgives any immigration-related fines or penalties they may have incurred.

Noem added, “Illegal aliens should take advantage of this gift and self-deport because if they don’t, we will find them, we will arrest them, and they will never return.”

The Trump administration has said the CBP Home app is a way for people to leave without having to deal with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. The app replaced the CBP One program that was used under the Biden administration, which allowed people to schedule hearings with immigration judges and to enter the United States before it was suspended by the White House in January.

A news release issued by DHS this past week said that more than 2.5 million illegal immigrants have left the United States since President Donald Trump was sworn into office for a second time, with 1.9 million voluntarily leaving and more than 600,000 deportations.

Trump, who promised record levels of deportations during the 2024 campaign, has ramped up enforcement actions and signed numerous orders related to both immigration and border security. The president has said that it’s needed after record numbers of illegal immigrants were encountered by agents or entered the United States under the Biden administration.

The Trump administration is preparing for a new push against illegal immigration in 2026 with billions in new funding, and officials have said they plan to hire thousands more immigration agents, open new detention centers, and partner with outside companies to track down people who are in the country illegally.

ICE and the Border Patrol will receive around $170 billion in additional funds through September 2029 as part of a funding package that was passed and signed into law over the summer.

White House border czar Tom Homan said on Monday that Trump had delivered on his promise of a historic deportation operation and removing criminals while shutting down illegal immigration across the U.S.–Mexico border. Homan said the number of arrests will increase sharply as ICE hires more officers and expands detention capacity with the new funding.

“I think you’re going to see the numbers explode greatly next year,” Homan said, adding that there will be more enforcement activity at workplaces next year.

Some of the immigration-related orders have faced legal pushback. A federal appeals court in late November, for example, declined to clear the way for Trump to expand a fast-track deportation process to allow for the expedited removal of illegal immigrants who are living far away from the border.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 06:30

Journo Freaks Out After Bari Weiss Spikes '60 Minutes' Segment On El Salvador Prison

CBS News' new editor in chief Bari Weiss pulled a planned "60 Minutes" segment on an El Salvador maximum-security prison where the Trump administration has sent hundreds of Venezuelan migrants - apparently because the journalist behind the piece failed to obtain comment from the Trump administration. 

Bari Weiss backstage at The Theatre at the Ace Hotel in Los Angeles, September 13, 2023.Francine Orr/Getty Images.

The 11th hour decision prompted outrage from a high-profile network correspondent, Sharyn Alfonsi, who said that Weiss "spiked our story," and characterized the move as a political decision rather than an editorial call, according to an email reviewed by the Wall Street Journal. 

"Our story was screened five times and cleared by both CBS attorneys and Standards and Practices. It is factually correct," Alfonsi's email continues, adding that if the standard for airing a story became the government agreeing to be interviewed, the network would cede editorial control. "We go from an investigative powerhouse to a stenographer for the state," she added. 

Read the full email Sharyn Alfonsi sent her team about CBS pulling their segment on the Trump admin’s deportations of Venezuelan migrants https://t.co/xZa60x7zhH pic.twitter.com/Mv52MJJE62

— Liam Scott (@liamjscott) December 22, 2025

While Alfonsi's email suggests that the segment was held over lack of comment from the Trump admin, a source tells Axios that's not the case - and that the report actually needed more reporting and other elements, and that the reporters did seek comment from the Trump admin.

Hey remember the 60 Minutes hit job on DeSantis over the Florida vaccine roll out? Guess who. https://t.co/8h0Q6MKKox

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) December 22, 2025

In response, Weiss said: "My job is to make sure that all stories we publish are the best they can be," adding "Holding stories that aren’t ready for whatever reason—that they lack sufficient context, say, or that they are missing critical voices—happens every day in every newsroom. I look forward to airing this important piece when it’s ready."

In a follow-up, Weiss said: 

As of course you all have seen, I held a ‘60 Minutes’ story, and I held that story because it wasn’t ready. The story presented very powerful testimony of abuse at CECOT, but that testimony has already been reported on by places like The Times. The public knows that Venezuelans have been subjected to horrific treatment in this prison. So to run a story on this subject, two months later, we simply need to do more. And this is ‘60 Minutes.’ We need to be able to make every effort to get the principles on the record and on camera. To me, our viewers come first, not a listing schedule or anything else, and that is my north star, and I hope it’s the north star of every person in this newsroom.

CBS had been advertising the segment on Friday, teasing some of Alfonsi's interviews with some of the deported migrants who had been released from the megaprison - describing "the brutal and torturous conditions they endured." 

The Trump administration has been deporting alleged Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador's Terrorism Confinement Center (CEDOT), however in June a federal judge said that the admin must allow migrants an opportunity to challenge their removal from the US. 

CBS parent company Paramount purchased Weiss's news and opinion site, the Free Press, for $150 million earlier this year - which CEO David Ellison (Larry Ellison's son) said was to bring the network "news that reflects reality" and journalism that "doesn’t seek to demonize, but seeks to understand."

Meanwhile, some (like CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin) are suggesting that this was about appeasing the Trump administration amid a fierce battle between Netflix and Paramount over the purchase of Warner Brothers Discovery.

Either scenario would likely trigger a review by the US Justice Department, which could block the transaction or demand changes. 

Earlier this month, President Trump suggested that the Netflix deal "could be a problem" because of the size of the combined market share.

"There’s no question about it," Trump said, though later he claimed that he "didn't know anything about the deal."

On Monday, Paramount Skydance announced that billionaire Larry Ellison had personally guaranteed an amended offer for Warner Brothers Discovery.

"Larry Ellison has agreed to provide an irrevocable personal guarantee of $40.4 billion of the equity financing for the offer and any damages claims against Paramount," the company said in a press release. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 06:11

Zurich Has The World's Most Expensive Cappuccino, Amsterdam The Cheapest

Coffee is a daily ritual for millions of people around the world. Yet the price of a simple cappuccino can vary dramatically depending on where you order it.

Local wages, rents, taxes, and currency strength all shape what consumers ultimately pay for their caffeine fix.

This visualization ranks the most expensive cappuccinos among the 69 major cities covered in Deutsche Bank’s Mapping the World’s Prices 2025 report.

It covers cappuccino prices in 2025, expressed in U.S. dollars for comparability.

Swiss and Nordic Cities Lead the Rankings

Zurich and Copenhagen share the top spot, with an average cappuccino price of $6.77. Switzerland’s high wages and cost of living, combined with a strong currency, push everyday purchases higher.

Geneva also ranks among the most expensive cities at $5.86, reinforcing Switzerland’s position as one of the costliest places in the world for daily consumption.

U.S. Cities Cluster Near the Top

Several U.S. cities appear prominently in the rankings. New York ($5.95) and San Francisco ($5.90) lead the pack, followed closely by Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston.

Despite differences in geography and culture, cappuccino prices across these U.S. cities fall within a relatively narrow range, suggesting similar cost structures in large urban markets.

Europe’s Price Range—and Italy’s Exception

European cities show a wider spread. While London ($5.19), Stockholm ($5.10), and Helsinki ($5.13) rank among the pricier options, Vienna and Amsterdam sit below $5.00.

Notably, Italy stands apart. Even the most expensive cappuccino in Italy—found in Milan—costs just $2.15, while in Rome the average price is only $1.79.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Which Countries Drink the Most Wine? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 05:45

Germany's Debt-Fueled Illusions: Merz Humiliated, Economy In Freefall

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The year 2025 ends for the slap-prone German Chancellor with a resounding smack in Brussels. After the failed raid on Russian assets at Euroclear, Berlin now turns its gaze to the hoped-for comeback of the German economy. Yet here too awaits the next bitter realization for naïve statisticians: wealth cannot be printed with debt.

Whether the Chancellor finds any sense of fulfillment—or even joy—in his current job is difficult to discern. Not that Friedrich Merz, with his numerous political sleights of hand, has preserved any claim to professional happiness. And yet curiosity remains: what must the psyche of a man be like, who for nearly eight months has been led by social-democratic buccaneers such as Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas by the nose through the political circus—exposed, humiliated, and repeatedly made ridiculous?

March into Command Economy

Merz’s grandiose promises of cutting bureaucracy, unleashing the economy in a vitalizing fall of reforms, and his bizarre economic patriotism à la “Made for Germany” evaporate at the slightest breeze of intra-coalition opposition. It reads like a naive comedy: the CDU and SPD camouflage reform policies, only to steer the central plan of transforming society and the economy into a green command economy with a military-industrial complex through increasingly rough seas to a safe harbor. The good old Erich—what would he have thought of what the old “FRG” has become?

The ongoing public humiliation of former BlackRock breakfast director Friedrich Merz reached a temporary peak on Friday in Brussels. At the EU summit, he received a resounding slap from the small Visegrád coalition led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, ultimately preventing the expropriation of Russian assets at Euroclear.

For those who understand the significance of Euroclear and even vaguely grasp what it means to damage a pillar of the trust-based international financial market architecture, a sigh of relief was inevitable.

What threatened here was nothing less than a reckless kick against a system’s foundation—whether from ignorance, political incompetence, or an almost manic denial of reality regarding the long-lost war in Ukraine. Panic replaces reason, EU-Europe digs deeper into the spiral of debt and recession, whose accelerating spin now lifts once-prosperous cities like Stuttgart and Wolfsburg off their fiscal saddles.

In Brussels, Merz and his allies were shown a boundary—unmistakably. Thus, the circle closes on a disagreeable year 2025 for him. And everything suggests the coming year will offer little cause for optimism.

Toward the Sunset

The German economy alone ensures that 2026 will seamlessly continue the disaster of 2025. An honest economic assessment requires a willingness for an honest inventory. The state’s share of German GDP has long surpassed the magic mark of 50 percent. New borrowing next year—adjusted for the federal government’s accounting tricks—will amount to roughly 5.6 percent.

Merz’s relentless fight against the debt brake now forces even Bundesbank economists to a sober assessment. For the coming year, they forecast an official budget deficit of 4.8 percent—a figure indirectly confirming our estimate of actual new borrowing.

If one views the state as a consumer filling its deficits with a debt printer, then statistically reported zero growth means nothing more than the private economy—producing goods and services for real consumers—is shrinking dramatically.

To counteract this economic erosion, the federal government, in addition to its already high-deficit budget, channels special funds into two artificial economies: the green disaster economy and the freshly revitalized war sector. Over €50 billion per year is borrowed on the credit market for this purpose.

It is this mixture of economic ignorance, historical oblivion, and near-childlike faith in miracles that leaves one speechless. One can safely assume that no cabinet member comprehends that only capital saved from the economic process and transformed into investments on a free market creates wealth.

The Merz–Klingbeil duo is building a bubble economy ideologically committed to the green transformation and geopolitically following a historically fatal idea: the growth of a war economy.

The Silent Erosion of the Real Economy

This policy may further swell the public sector. Merely distributing these massive debt and credit programs puts tens of thousands to work at the expense of the productive population. The high regulatory tempo in Brussels and Berlin has forced the German economy to create roughly 325,000 new administrative positions over the past three years—solely to handle the flood of documentation and regulatory requirements. Paper piles upon paper: absurd, Kafkaesque, and economically destructive.

The state thus effectively outsources its own bureaucracy and distorts statistics on multiple levels. While administrative apparatuses grow, hundreds of thousands of industrial jobs have already been lost. The consensus estimate for economic growth in 2026 of just about one percent is the true disaster Berlin must now digest.

It matters little how much credit the state withdraws from the capital market or which incentives it creates to direct private capital into industrial wastelands—green steel or wind energy. In this environment, the private sector will shrink by at least four percent next year.

The Turning Point

For Friedrich Merz, this economic catastrophe is no longer merely a domestic political time bomb. If the downward spiral continues, media spectacles, ritualized bashing of entrepreneurs, hollow site patriotism, and endless “persevere” slogans will not suffice to explain to citizens why their exsanguination through taxes and labor markets continues to rise while no one addresses the causes.

At its core, this crisis is about correcting two fundamental ideological misdirections. The moment will come when Germany must abandon the leftist illusion of permanently acting as the world’s social office. This cut will coincide with the end of destructive climate socialism, which is either bankrupting German industry or pushing it into the arms of rationally managed locations.

The Visegrád group delivered a demonstrative kick to Merz’s shins. But the real dynamics extend further: a powerful opposition of conservative parties and governments—from Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Italy—is forming. They will eventually behead the climate-socialist Medusa of central planners. Yet, given the stiff headwinds and fierce resistance of Brussels’ powerful core, the birth of the liberating European Perseus may be a long and difficult labor.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 05:00

Non-US Citizens More Likely To Have Devices Checked

Tourists heading to the United States could soon have to disclose the past five years of their social media activities to authorities during the ESTA process. Where providing such information was previously only mandatory for longer-term visas, U.S. Customs and Border Protection have now submitted a new regulatory proposal to make it an essential part of short-term tourists and business travelers’ applications too. The move would be a part of a wider package of data collection measures which authorities say are necessary for security reasons. The decision is not yet legally binding, but could start to come into force from February.

The new regulation would move the inspection process to a pre-travel stage. Currently, the CBP can demand a media search of entrants’ electronic devices at random at the border, without needing a warrant or any specific reason. More “advanced” searches, which happens when a CBP or ICE official connects the device to external equipment in order to review, copy, and/or analyze its contents, requires reasonable suspicion of criminal activity or a "national security concern". CBP officers are also able to "detain” an electronic device or copies of information contained within it, usually up to a maximum of five days.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, data from the CBP shows that non-U.S. citizens are over three times more likely to have their devices checked at the U.S. border than those who hold a U.S. passport. Of the 55,318 media searches of electronics devices checks in the fiscal year of 2025, running from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025, 41,728 were of non-U.S. citizens, while 13,590 were of U.S. citizens.

You will find more infographics at Statista

On average, searches have historically been relatively rare. Of the total 419 million passengers processed at U.S. ports of entry last year, around 0.01 percent had their electronic devices searched. Ports of entry include international airports, road and rail crossings on land borders and major seaports, and are places where travelers can legally enter the country.

However, the number of searches, which includes the checking of mobile phones, computers, cameras, or other electronics, has been on the rise over the past decade. An increase in annual passenger footfall likely plays a part, with the dip in the number of device checks in 2020 and 2021 mirroring a decrease in travelers those years due to pandemic-related restrictions.

But this reason alone does not explain why the number of searches in 2025 nearly tripled since 2016, and increased more than six fold since 2015. In the latter year, around 382 million travelers were processed at U.S. ports of entry and the devices of 8,503 travelers were checked, working out to an average of around 0.002 percent.

It remains to be seen how the number of checks will change over the next few years with the Trump 2.0 administration. While checks generally increased under Biden too, the new proposed regulations and string of cases of U.S. tourists and work visa holders having been detained on arrival to the U.S. this year have raised concerns that there has been a shift, with the country now carrying out greater scrutiny than before.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 04:15

New NATO Hub To Open In Romania, Doubling Weapons Deliveries To Ukraine

Via Remix News,

Starting in January 2026, a second NATO hub will begin operating in Romania, doubling the transit of weapons to Ukraine, including through the PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) mechanism.

Right after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a similar hub was opened in Jasionka, Poland, to serve as a key logistics center for all international aid flowing to Kyiv — military, humanitarian, and medical. Funds flow into Jasionka from Europe and the United States, writes Do Rzeczy.

The opening of the second hub reporting directly to NATO was confirmed by NATO’s deputy commander for support to Ukraine, General Mike Keller, who also informed press that in the past year, Ukraine received around 220,000 tons of military aid – approximately 9,000 trucks, 1,800 railway cars, and some 500 aircraft carrying weapons and military equipment.

“This is actually quite positive news, considering the independence of arms supplies to Ukraine from a single logistics center in Poland. This concerns urgently needed air defense assets, and above all, missiles, ammunition, etc.,” Defense Express experts assessed.

The current hub in Poland is located approximately 80 kilometers from the Polish-Ukrainian border. From there, goods, previously subjected to security checks, including explosives and counterintelligence equipment, are transported to the Ukrainian border.

For over two years, all these tasks were performed by a special support inspectorate – a team of four services under the overall leadership of the Military Counterintelligence Service – the police, the Central Bureau of Police Investigation, the Military Counterintelligence Service, and a dozen or so officers of the Military Gendarmerie.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 03:30

US Mulls Sanctions On Spanish-Flagged Vessels

Lately headlines have been filled with developments of the United States targeting Venezuelan-linked tankers, or sanctioning Russia's so-called Shadow Fleet, or else intercepts of Iranian oil shipments on the high seas. Such country names on the receiving end of Washington's punitive measures have become commonplace, but it is surprising to see the EU country of Spain pop up as potentially next on the target list. Sanctions on Spanish-flagged vessels?

The US is actually mulling it, based on Madrid having blocked vessels carrying weapons bound for Israel since last year, even including refusals for American ships to dock.

Source: Bloomberg

Maritime monitoring source Freight Waves reported of several incidents last year, "Spain refused docking privileges at APM terminals in Algeciras, Spain in November 2024 to three U.S. flagged vessels operating under the MSP: Maersk Denver, Maersk Nysted, and Maersk Seletar."

The Federal Maritime Commission conducted a formal investigation and this month confirmed the anti-US and anti-Israel actions by the Spanish government did take place, in line with Spain's recent boycotting of Israel (specifically arms and military equipment) policy due to the Gaza war.

Spain has made clear it has recently codified a "multi-faceted policy" to ban ships and aircraft carrying weapons headed for Israel or tankers carrying fuel for use by the Israeli military from using Spanish ports or even flying in its airspace.

The US Federal Maritime Commission within the last days issued a statement confirming that it is considering "remedies the commission can implement to adjust or meet unfavorable conditions to shipping in the foreign trade of the United States include adopting regulations restricting voyages to or from US ports, imposing per voyage fees, limiting amounts or types of cargo, or taking ‘any other action the commission finds necessary and appropriate to adjust or meet any condition unfavorable to shipping the foreign trade of the United States’."

There has long existed routine coordination between Spanish and American military officials, however, the relationship is becoming increasingly tense, given port blockage issue reflects a serious political divergence amid the ongoing war in Gaza.

The Rota base, near Cádiz on the Atlantic coast, is under Spanish control but heavily utilized by American forces. Also, the Morón air base, which is near Seville, is a key hub for US military operations, with American forces long operating with a broad degree of freedom there.

US naval base at Rota in Cadiz province, file image

Madrid has defended its decision as rooted in Spain's sovereignty and terms outlined in a 1988 bilateral defense agreement, amid the past couple years of European scrutiny of Israeli military action against Palestinians, especially in war-ravaged Gaza.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 02:45

UK Govt Minister Steps In To Defend Met Office As Fake Temperature Scandal Escalates

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

In a couple of weeks’ time, the Met Office is likely to announce another ‘hottest year evah’ in the UK. The message will be broadcast faithfully by trusted messengers in mainstream media, keen to prop up the fading Net Zero fantasy, but greeted with howls of derision across social media. Eye-opening investigative research over the last two years has revealed a national temperature network mainly composed of ‘junk’ inappropriate sites and massive data inventions across over 100 non-existent stations.

Now the British Government has stepped in with the suggestion that questioning the Met Office’s shoddy measuring systems “weakens trust in science”. Misinformation is said to have proliferated on “conspiracy networks”.

Step forward Lord Patrick Vallance, the former Government Chief Scientific Adviser at the heart of the Covid lockdown panic but now an unelected Science Minister in the Labour Administration.

“There has been a growing online narrative in some online and social media spaces attempting to undermine Met Office observations and data,” he observes.

Vallance’s conspiracy claims echo similar comments made earlier in the year by the Met Office. The investigative efforts of a small number of people were said by the state meteorologist to be an “attempt to undermine decades of robust science around the world ‘s changing climate”.

Only in the world inhabited by Vallance and the Met Office can a conspiracy be whipped up when rigorous examination and questioning is applied to scientific data.

From Covid to climate, it seems the scientific process is a closed book to state scientists following the settled political narrative. One of the ‘conspirators’ is citizen sleuth Ray Sanders, who has undertaken a forensic examination of nearly 400 individual Met Office recording stations. Commenting on the official ministerial response, he observed that not one word constituted a scientific approach. “It is a political monologue of the lowest order,” he opined.

Regular co-conspiratorial readers will of course be aware of the reporting problems at the Met Office.

Over the last 18 months, the percentage of sites in junk CIMO Classes 4 and 5 with ‘uncertainties’ due to nearby unnatural obstacles of 2°C and 5°C respectively has climbed from 77.9% to over 80%. In that period, the number of pristine Class 1 sites capable of measuring an uncorrupted ambient air temperature over a large surrounding area has fallen from 24 to just 19. Ray Sanders has catalogued most of the unsuitable sites producing measurements taken by airport runways, in walled gardens, near main roads and in the middle of solar farms. Daily high unnatural heat spikes, amplified by the recent introduction of more accurate electronic devices, are an obvious unaddressed problem, but they are often fed into the official statistics. One such 60-second spike in July 2022 pushed the temperature at RAF Coningsby up to 40.3°C, a declared national record that is widely publicised.

Meanwhile, temperature databases are awash with non-existent stations and invented data. Explanations that the ‘estimates’ are taken from ‘well-correlated neighbouring stations’ might be more convincing if those stations could be identified. Freedom of Information (FOI) efforts by Ray Sanders seeking such details have been dismissed as “vexatious” and “not in the public interest”. The picture has emerged of a very rough-and-ready network, suitable for specific local temperature reporting at places such as airports, but unconvincing in promoting widespread average temperatures down to one hundredth of a degree centigrade.

The Vallance explanations are contained in a letter written to the Conservative MP Sir Julian Lewis following concerns raised by Derek Tripp, a local councillor in his constituency. He notes that in September, the Met Office decided to remove estimated data from three non-existent stations on its historic temperature database.

“They recognised that confusion could be caused when there appears to be a continued flow of data on this website from stations that have closed,” he said.

In fact the confusion was caused by the Daily Sceptic seeking FOI details in November of well-correlated neighbouring stations responsible for data at one of the stations, namely Lowestoft. The well-correlated explanation is often used by the Met Office and formed the basis of an earlier ‘fact check’ by Science Feedback that seems to have relied exclusively on text provided by the Met Office. Sanders had earlier determined that there were no such stations within a reasonable distance of Lowestoft. The Met Office admitted under FOI that it did not use such stations but rather made estimates using its HADUK-Grid. This was little more than passing the buck since HADUK-Grid inputs temperature information from nearby stations, none of which it seems can ever be identified.

Vallance went on to note that the historic dataset was for “general interest only and is not intended for climate monitoring purposes”.

Curiously, Vallance failed to point out that this was a very recent explanation since it only appeared on the Met Office historic page after the Daily Sceptic submitted its FOI.

On the 80% junk nature of the Met Office’s temperature sites, Vallance rushes to the aid of the party.

“It is misleading and inappropriate to interpret the CIMO classifications in isolation to question the quality of the Met Office’s observing network or the integrity of the UK’s climate record,” he states.

What pompous piffle.

In-house activists have been allowed to leverage the reputation of the Met Office to produce a flood of dubious measurements and statistics designed to create mass climate psychosis with the aim of promoting a hard-Left Net Zero agenda. The World Meteorological Organisation could not be clearer in stating that a CIMO Class 1 location can be considered as a “reference” site giving a true air temperature over a wide surrounding area. “A Class 5 site is a site where nearby obstacles create an inappropriate environment for a meteorological measurement that is intended to be representative of a wide area,” it notes. A site with a poor class number can still be valuable for a specified application, it adds.

In other words, a Class 5 is useful for giving jet pilots a vital runway temperature, but less so for telling us that the annual temperature in the UK was 0.06°C cooler in 2023 than the ‘record’ year of 2022.

Vallance also claims that the Met Office “follows a structured, requirements-driven process to identify and establish new land observing stations”. It is reasonable to ask what “requirements-driven” process is being used by the Met Office, given that a large majority of sites started over the last 30, 10 and five years are to be found in the junk 4 and 5 Classes.

Even worse, the Daily Sceptic has disclosed using FOI information that 20 new sites have opened since April 2024, and of the 17 that have received CIMO classifications, a frankly incredible 64.7% started life in the Class 4 and 5 junk lane.

And they say we are the conspiracy nuts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 02:00

There Are Over 8,500 Toxic Shipwrecks Across The Globe

There are over 8,500 potentially polluting wrecks (PPWs) across the world’s ocean. These shipwrecks may hold as much as 20.4 million metric tons of oil and toxic substances, according to estimates.

This graphic, produced by Visual Capitalist's Cody Good in partnership with Lloyd’s Register Foundation, shows the global density of World War II wrecks. It uses data from Paul Heersink’s Sunken Ships of the Second World War database and oil estimates from Michel et al., 2005, presented at the International Oil Spill Conference.

Where Toxic Shipwrecks Are Found

World War II battles sank over 75% of PPWs, concentrating most in regions such as the South Pacific (32% of PPWs, 25% of oil) and the North Atlantic (25% of PPWs, 38% of oil).

Here is a table that shows the concentration of PPWs by ocean region and their estimated oil content:

These wrecks remain under the ownership of the original flag states, who have no legal obligation to intervene. As a result, proactive international cooperation is urgently required.

The Environmental Threat

Many PPWs lie in the waters of small island states reliant on fishing and tourism. Even minor oil spills in sensitive marine areas can be devastating.

Here is a table showing the top 10 countries with the most PPWs located in their exclusive economic zones (EEZs), ranked by GDP:

Source: Shipwreck locations – Paul Heersink, 2025; EEZ file – Flanders Marine Institute, 2023

Because these nations often lack the resources to respond, they remain especially vulnerable to emerging threats.

The Malta Manifesto: Charting a Path Forward

The Malta Manifesto, launched by Project Tangaroa, calls for a global framework to address the PPW threat. It outlines key actions, from identifying high-risk wrecks to supporting coastal nations with limited capacity.

By recognizing that even a single leak in the wrong location can have far-reaching impacts, the Manifesto pushes for equitable, science-based solutions to this overlooked legacy of conflict.

Read the Malta Manifesto here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 23:00

Trump Deal Highlights Intensifying Global Competition For Fusion Energy

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NYSE:DJT) have surged nearly 70% after the company agreed to merge with fusion startup TAE Technologies in a $6 billion deal. Under the terms of the deal, shareholders of each company will own roughly half of the combined entity on a fully diluted equity basis. Trump Media, majority owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, will now become the holding company for TAE Power Solutions and TAE Life Sciences alongside current holdings Truth Social, Truth+ and Truth.Fi. 

Founded in 1998, TAE Technologies aims to deploy commercial, utility-scale fusion energy. The company plans to commence construction of its first fusion power plant in 2026, expected to generate 350-500 MWe.

TAE Technologies has raised more than $1.3 billion thanks to backing by high-profile investors, including Google, Chevron Technology Ventures, Goldman Sachs, and Sumitomo Corporation of America. The company plans to employ neutral particle beams and magnets in its fusion reactors instead of standard lasers.

Widely regarded as the Holy Grail of low-carbon electricity, nuclear fusion works by ‘smashing’ together hydrogen atoms to create helium and release energy through the famous E=MC2 mass-energy equivalence. Fusion is the process by which stars, including our own sun, generate vast amounts of energy in their cores. 

Nuclear fusion is able to generate four times as much energy as nuclear fission from the same mass of fuel. Fusion reactors are highly regarded not only because of their massive power output but also because they produce much less radioactive waste and cannot melt down, unlike fission reactors, where uncontrolled chain reactions can be catastrophic. 

Nuclear fission is a process where a nucleus (usually of a heavy atom like uranium) splits into two smaller nuclei, releasing a large amount of energy and additional neutrons. These released neutrons can then induce further fission events, leading to a chain reaction.

After a long period of stagnation, nuclear fusion is hot again thanks to the ongoing global nuclear renaissance amid surging energy demand. Back in August, Sam Altman-backed Helion Energy began construction of its first commercial nuclear fusion plant in Chelan County, Washington. Helion’s project has already undergone rigorous environmental assessments as part of the Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) process by the State of Washington. 

Two years ago, Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ:MSFT) signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Helion Energy to buy electricity from the nuclear fusion startup beginning in 2028. Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) was appointed as the marketer for the zero-carbon electricity Helion plans to generate at its Orion plant.

Helion has scored some important fusion milestones, with its Trenta prototype the first private reactor to achieve nuclear fusion on a commercial scale. Trenta--Helion’s sixth fusion prototype--has been able to achieve a critical fuel temperature of 180 million degrees Fahrenheit, widely considered a benchmark for commercial fusion viability. 

Testing of the prototype began in 2019 and concluded in January 2023, during which the facility completed nearly 10,000 high-power pulses and operated under vacuum for 16 months. Trenta uses a pulsed magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) approach to generate fusion energy. It accelerates two Field Reversed Configurations (FRCs) of plasma to collide, compressing them to fusion temperatures and directly recapturing the released energy as electricity, bypassing the traditional steam turbine cycle.

China Enters Fusion Race

That said, China has entered the fusion race with a bang. Whereas the U.S. was among the world’s first countries to bet big on this futuristic gambit, China’s foray came much later. China has been making rapid progress over the past decade, and now owns more fusion patents than any country according to industry data published by Nikkei. Further, China is building projects at record speed. 

China's private fusion energy company, Energy Singularity, has achieved several significant breakthroughs in developing high-temperature superconducting (HTS) tokamak devices aimed at accelerating the commercialization of fusion energy. In June 2024, the company's HH70 device successfully achieved its "first plasma," making it the first and only operational full high-temperature superconducting tokamak built by a commercial company globally. The HH70 device was designed and constructed in under two years, a world record for the fastest development and construction of a superconducting tokamak.

In early 2025, Energy Singularity's large-bore D-shaped HTS magnet, named "Jingtian" generated a world-record magnetic field of 21.7 tesla in a test. This surpassed the previous record held by a U.S. company/MIT collaboration and is a critical step for developing smaller, more cost-effective fusion reactors.The company is now developing its next-generation device, the HH170, which is planned for completion by 2027 and aims to achieve a tenfold energy gain (Q>10), a crucial milestone for commercial viability.

Interestingly, just like it did with AI models, China is pulling off impressive fusion milestones with much less. To wit, Energy Singularity has so far received just $112 million in private investment, significantly less than U.S. fusion startups. For some context, Charles Seife, director of the Arthur L. Carter Institute of Journalism at New York University, estimates that France-based International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project costs have surpassed €20 billion ($21.8 billion), more than four times the original budget of €5 billion (then $5.5 billion) and nearly a decade late from its 2016 delivery date.

That said, Energy Singularity is not the only fusion startup that’s pursuing small reactor designs. Deven, Massachusetts-based Commonwealth Fusion Systems is collaborating with MIT to build its small fusion reactor. 

The company has achieved major breakthroughs in fusion energy by developing world-record High-Temperature Superconducting (HTS) magnets, enabling smaller, more powerful tokamaks like their SPARC device, which aims to be the first to produce net energy. They've secured massive funding (around $3 billion), validated their magnet technology with the U.S. DOE, and demonstrated key magnet performance milestones. CFS is now building its SPARC reactor to prove net-energy fusion, paving the way for its first commercial power plant, ARC.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 22:35

Rocking Around The Plastic Tree

For some families, the search for the right Christmas tree is an annual event.

For large shares of Americans and Brits though, this search may have ended a long time ago - the perfect tree already sitting safely in the attic or garage, ready for its glorious but fleeting return to the living room.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, a new survey from Statista Consumer Insights shows, it's a different story in Germany.

You will find more infographics at Statista

There, at the home of the Christmas tree tradition, the practice is still very much alive - 41 percent of German adults said they would be putting up a real tree this year, compared to 32 percent in the U.S. and just 24 percent in the United Kingdom.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 22:10

Vance: "You Don't Have To Apologize For Being White"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Vice President JD Vance announced Sunday the Trump administration’s decisive victory over the woke scourge of DEI, banishing it to where it belongs—the trash heap of failed ideas. Speaking at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest, Vance made it crystal clear: America is back to rewarding merit and hard work, not pandering to identity politics that divide and weaken the nation.

This move shreds the chains of racial guilt and sex-based favoritism pushed by the radical left, restoring true equality under the law. With Trump at the helm, the radical left’s grip on discriminatory programs is crumbling.

Vance was forthright in his address, highlighting how the administration is dismantling the leftist playbook that treats people differently based on immutable traits.

JD Vance: "Unlike the left, we don't treat anybody differently because of their race or their sex"

"So we have relegated DEI to the dustbin of history which is exactly where it belongs"

This is what you call moral clarity and strong leadership. ? pic.twitter.com/SOcaryUgOX

— Lee Harris (@LeeHarris) December 21, 2025

“We have finally made it clear that in the United States, we believe in hard work and merit. Unlike the left, we stand against treating anybody, and I love what Nikki [Minaj] said about this, we don’t treat anybody different because of their race or their sex,” Vance said.

He added, “So we have relegated [DEI] to the dustbin of history, which is exactly where it belongs. In the United States of America, you don’t have to apologize for being white anymore.”

He drove the point home by addressing the unfair burdens placed on various groups under DEI regimes.

“And if you’re an Asian, you don’t have to talk around your skin color when you’re applying for college, because we judge people based on who they are, not on ethnicity and things they can’t control,” Vance continued.

He further urged, “We don’t persecute you for being male, for being straight, for being gay, for being anything. The only thing that we demand is that you be a great American patriot. And if you’re that you’re very much on our team.”

The declaration comes on the heels of President Trump’s executive order, signed mere hours after his inauguration on January 20, 2025, which eradicated DEI programs across the federal government. This swift action fulfilled a core promise to dismantle bureaucratic bloat that prioritizes division over unity.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth revealed in a further speech that the Department of War has also scrapped promotion quotas, ensuring military advancements are based on capability, not checkboxes. It’s a stark contrast to the previous administration’s chaos, where open borders and identity obsessions eroded national strength.

Even the corporate world is waking up. Major players like McDonald’s, Walmart, and Coors are retreating from DEI initiatives, as a damning report in Econ Journal Watch exposed the flawed McKinsey studies claiming diversity boosts profits—turns out, they couldn’t be replicated. The house of cards is collapsing, revealing DEI as the fraud it always was.

Vance’s words echo a broader rejection of globalist agendas that undermine American values. By endorsing him for a potential 2028 run, TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk signals the rising tide of young conservatives ready to fight back against the elite’s control.

Vance’s message reinforces what MAGA has always stood for—unity through strength, merit over manipulation, and an unapologetic love for America. As the dust settles on DEI’s demise, the path forward is clear: a nation where freedom thrives, not divides.

Watch Vance’s full speech:

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Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 21:45

MSM Stays Silent As Horrific Video Emerges Of Attack On 75-Year-Old Woman In Seattle

Outside of local reporting in Seattle, corporate media outlets at the national level have entirely ignored the brutal attack on a 75-year-old woman by a repeat offender. The silence is telling and underscores how progressive criminal justice reforms continue to backfire spectacularly, enabling a revolving-door chaotic environment that releases serial offenders back onto the streets with nation-killing consequences.

That's correct. There has been no coverage in the mainstream press. The reason is very simple: corporate media outlets no longer function as independent news organizations, but as public-relations arms that filter stories based on narrative control rather than public importance. 

0 AP stories on Jeanette Marken
0 PBS stories on Jeanette Marken
0 NYT stories on Jeanette Marken
0 NPR stories on Jeanette Marken
0 WSJ stories on Jeanette Marken
0 BBC stories on Jeanette Marken
0 CNN stories on Jeanette Marken
0 WAPO stories on… pic.twitter.com/KogLaTWrWd

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) December 21, 2025

KOMO News released new surveillance video showing a horrific and random attack outside the King County Courthouse in downtown Seattle earlier this month.

75 year old Jeanette Marken was victim of an unprovoked attack by REPEAT violent offender Fale Vaigalepa Pea.

She lost an eye and broke her nose and cheekbone.

Fale has a long violent record of stabbings to drugs.

Judges kept releasing him to terrorize others.

This must stop! pic.twitter.com/vBFJu8BdWu

— C3 (@C_3C_3) December 22, 2025

According to charging documents, 42-year-old Fale Vaigalepa Pea used a wooden stick with a protruding screw to strike 75-year-old Jeanette Marken in the face.

BREAKING: Violent repeat offender who was known to police just randomly slashed a 75-year-old woman in the face in Seattle and permanently blinded her pic.twitter.com/fXH2bXpsMc

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) December 21, 2025

KOMO said court records show Pea has been known to law enforcement for years and has a long history of violent behavior.

In 2011, Pea stabbed two people at a party in SeaTac, including one victim who was stabbed eight times. He was later convicted by a jury and sentenced to 18 months of community custody. Since then, he has been charged in multiple assault cases, including one in 2020, four in 2023, and another in 2024.

This year alone, Pea has been booked into the King County Jail eight times. Despite repeated arrests for assault, indecent exposure, drug offenses, property destruction, unlawful use of weapons, and malicious mischief, none of those arrests this year resulted in charges before the random attack on the 75-year-old woman.

Pea now faces a first-degree assault charge and is scheduled for a competency hearing later this month. Prosecutors argue that his actions and criminal history show he's a danger to the community.

What's most shocking is that body camera footage from officers at the scene described Pea as a "regular" and noted, "He's notorious for random assaults on Third."

Elon Musk commented on the shocking video on X, saying, "This keeps happening to innocent people."

Unacceptable… Judges must be held accountable! pic.twitter.com/HIDONCoF0R

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) November 26, 2025

Musk is likely referring to the fatal stabbing in Charlotte of a Ukrainian refugee by yet another serial offender released onto the street by progressive judges.

Judges must be held accountable https://t.co/bgDbt5rbH0

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 21, 2025

It's time to hold left-wing politicians, judges, and anyone in between accountable for allowing repeat criminals back onto the streets, slaying the innocent.

This is why we need to Nayib Bukele America's judicial system.

"We had to remove corrupt judges and corrupt attorneys and prosecutors!"pic.twitter.com/jxs5lJHV41

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 22, 2025

In the meantime, continue to avoid crime-ridden, Democrat-run cities and stay vigilant. None of this chaos should be happening, yet it has been allowed through nation-killing policies pushed by Democrats who follow a globalist framework aimed at undermining America from within.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 21:20

Despite Headwinds: Airlines On Track For A Record Year

The global airline industry is on track to hit new revenue and profit records in 2025 and 2026.

As Statista's Felix Richter details below, according to the latest industry outlook from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), commercial airlines, including passenger and cargo airlines, are expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue for the first time this year, showing resilience in the face of significant headwinds.

This is especially true for the air cargo sector, which successfully weathered the storm after the Trump administration's new tariff policy shook up global trade. Tariff front-loading and subsequent re-routing of global trade flows posed significant operational challenges in 2025, despite which cargo revenue is expected to grow 2.6 percent this year. Despite non-fuel cost pressures, mainly in the form of rising labor and maintenance costs, airline profit margins have recovered from their 2024 dip, promising new industry records in terms of total profit for this year and 2026.

While hailing the industry's performance in a challenging operating environment, IATA's Director General Willie Walsh bemoaned airline profit margins, which he doesn't consider well-aligned with value the industry creates.

"They [airlines] stand at the core of a value chain that underpins nearly 4 percent of the global economy and supports 87 million jobs. Yet Apple will earn more selling an iPhone cover than the $7.90 airlines will make transporting the average passenger," Walsh argued.

Looking ahead, the IATA expects industry revenues to reach a historic high of $1.05 trillion in 2026, up 4.5 percent from the expected 2025 total.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Passenger revenue is projected to reach $751 billion in 2026, as 5.2 billion passengers are expected to board a commercial plane next year.

"Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9 percent net margin and a $41 billion profit in 2026. That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces - rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade and growing regulatory burdens among them. Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” Willie Walsh concluded.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 20:30

Judge Green-Lights Secret Service Agent's Retaliation Case

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

A federal judge has allowed most claims in a senior Secret Service agent’s lawsuit alleging a hostile workplace, retaliation, and discrimination to move forward despite Department of Homeland Security opposition, according to court documents.  

Rashid Ellis, a 14-year veteran of the agency with expertise in drone systems, sued DHS, which oversees the Secret Service, three months before the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt against Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Ellis’ lawsuit accuses agency leaders of dismissing complaints, elevating problematic colleagues to oversight positions, and punishing him for advocating for advancements in drone technology and racial unity within the agency.

The claims of retaliation, discrimination, and hostile work environment took place when Alejandro Mayorkas was DHS secretary and Kimberly Cheatle ran the Secret Service. Cheatle was forced to resign after severe criticism of her testimony to Congress about the Butler failures.

Even though Ellis’ former agency is now led by Trump-appointed Secretary Kristi Noem and Secret Service Director Sean Curran, so far there has been no effort to settle the case out of court.

Ruling Preserves Ellis’ Core Allegations

U.S. District Judge Emmit Sullivan ruled in late September that most of the claims in Ellis’ lawsuit could proceed. The decision, which RealClearPolitics is first to report, rejects the government’s motion to dismiss the case, clearing the path for legal discovery into allegations of systemic leadership failings, which Ellis argues enabled bias, stifled innovation, and endangered the agency’s mission.

A graduate of The Citadel who was consistently awarded “exceeds expectations” ratings in his performance reviews, Ellis served on former President Joe Biden’s protective detail, the elite Counter Assault Team, and as an instructor at the Secret Service’s James J. Rowley Training Center on counter-surveillance and the use of drones. His role as the Secret Service point person for the Federal Law Enforcement Officers’ Association, a lobbying entity that offers legal services, retirement benefits, and other support, amplified his advocacy for racial equality. Ellis argues it also made him a target for Secret Service leadership.

Multiple Secret Service shortcomings were evident in Butler on the day Trump was nearly killed, including the failure to detect the shooter’s drone in the air over the rally site. On the one-year anniversary of the Butler assassination attempt, the Secret Service announced reforms, including the creation of an Aviation and Airspace Security division “dedicated to maintaining the agency’s critical aerial monitoring capabilities.”

Ellis’ lawsuit detailing his experiences with Cheatle at the helm, which RCP reported on last year, reads like a case study of the agency leaders’ long-running tendency to engage in petty squabbles, favoritism, and retaliation instead of keeping its focus on the big picture – its mission of protecting presidents, vice presidents, Cabinet members, and former presidents.

In a detailed 63-page opinion, Sullivan determined that Ellis had sufficiently alleged civil rights violations.

The judge was unpersuaded by DHS attorneys’ arguments, including that Ellis didn’t truly suffer any adverse action because he never lost his salary and that he didn’t exhaust administrative remedies on his charges before filing suit.

DHS attorneys also argued that federal employees are held to a higher standard than those in the private sector when it comes to experiencing adverse actions. Sullivan dismissed this last argument as one that has repeatedly failed in previous court decisions.

“As discussed below,” the judge wrote, “this theory has been rejected by every judge on this court to have considered it.”

Ellis’ attorney, David Blum of Alan Lescht & Associates, P.C., told RCP: “We look forward to litigating the merits of this case.”

The Secret Service has declined comment on Ellis’ case and ignored several separate questions about the agency’s history of resisting efforts to implement an extensive aerial drone program and the readiness level of that program. Prior to the assassination attempts, the Secret Service had an aerial drone program, but it was limited in scope, sources told RCP.

“As a matter of longstanding policy, the U.S. Secret Service does not comment on pending or proposed litigation,” a spokesperson told RCP last year. The agency did not respond to a request for comment on Sullivan’s ruling.

The lawsuit depicts a corrosive Secret Service culture in which leaders engage in intimidation, and supervisors ignore harassment reports, neglect investigations, and retaliate if personnel complain of mistreatment.

Ellis argues that Cheatle, then serving as the head of the Secret Service’s Office of Protective Operations, backed by human resource managers and other bureaucrats, blocked and retaliated against him for trying to transfer jobs to work full-time on a special drone project he was developing, according to three sources in the Secret Service community.

Some of these agency officials, Ellis asserts, also retaliated against him for lodging complaints about personal and inaccurate attacks based on his perceived religion.

Cheatle and a group of senior Secret Service officials went to great lengths to prevent Ellis from serving in a key role in the Airspace Security Branch of the Secret Service’s Special Operations Division, which oversees the drone program, according to court records Ellis filed last year.

Instead, the agency wanted to send him to the vice presidential detail to help provide security for Kamala Harris, her husband, and their extended family, and wouldn’t budge when he appealed the decision – even though the agency had formally listed the airspace position as “hard-to-staff.”

Ellis, who is black but eschews racial divisions, referring to himself as “American,” filed suit against DHS in April 2024 and amended the complaint in late July to outline a pattern of harassment. The lawsuit accuses agency officials of orchestrating an elaborate scheme, beginning in 2021, to undermine his career in retaliation for his efforts to transfer to an Airspace position. Ellis wanted the position so he could play a direct role in establishing and implementing “a special project involving drones,” according to the lawsuit.

Ellis’ lawsuit alleges that those who conspired against him include Cheatle; then-human resources head Susan Yarwood; Elizabeth Lewis, Yarwood’s then-deputy; then-Technical Services Division Assistant Director Darren Giacolleto; then-Human Resources supervisors Danielle Watson and Thomas Hamman; and others.

Specific Leadership Failures

Incidents of harassment Ellis endured include:

• A fellow agent, whom the lawsuit identifies as Michael Hackney, allegedly used a training exercise to physically attack him and pulled a live weapon on him as a joke while he was working a protection detail. Ellis reported the incident to his superior, who took no action, telling him, “The juice isn’t worth the squeeze,” according to the lawsuit. Two years later, Hackney allegedly aggressively drove his SUV toward Ellis and his pregnant wife and one-year-old son as though he was going to run them over.
• Another agent, who Ellis says witnessed the aggressive driving threat, warned him not to report Hackney because “that’s how some people joke.”
• Ellis, a Christian, believes his complaints about Hackney, whom he said also misidentified him as Muslim and called him a “terrorist” based on his Islamic-sounding first name, contributed to his failure to land bids for two hard-to-staff positions in the agency’s Airspace branch, even though he argues he was eligible for both positions.

The lawsuit further alleges:

• A senior official acknowledged agency-wide racism and backed Ellis’ 2021 drone position bid, calling him the “number one selection,” but failed to counter Human Resources’ disqualification. Lewis and Yarwood deemed him ineligible despite his qualifications and the endorsement.
• After Ellis appealed that decision, Danielle Watson twisted his frustrated comment about the process “driving him to drink” into cynical claims that he admitted to abusing alcohol. Yarwood, after consulting Lewis, directed Watson to draft a memorandum falsely alleging Ellis admitted to drinking, family disputes, and related issues – proven false by video evidence. The agency then placed Ellis on administrative leave and forced him to surrender his gear while recommending a nine-month sobriety program. Those decisions were overturned shortly afterward, but nonetheless damaged Ellis’ reputation.
• Cheatle supported the phony alcoholism narrative, recommending administrative leave and the sobriety program, and allegedly provided misleading statements in an affidavit about the sources of information that informed her decisions.
• Giacoletto denied Ellis’ appeal the day the agency imposed the administrative leave and was involved in the initial disqualification.

A supervisor warned Ellis of “a lot of trouble” for pursuing grievances, while others told him that the real source of his troubles with the agency was his pro-drone advocacy.

These incidents, Ellis claims, reflect a Secret Service pattern of weaponizing human resources processes against those who complain of mistreatment, a similar refrain among numerous former agents and the lawyers who have represented them.

Connections to Broader Secret Service Challenges

Despite new leadership, the Secret Service has experienced a string of continued lapses and embarrassing incidents. As RCP first reported, two female officers were involved in a physical fight outside former President Obama’s D.C. residence; Secret Service officers also missed a Glock while screening bags at Trump’s Virginia golf course; a Uniformed Division officer fell asleep on the job and left his fully automatic rifle unattended while protecting the United Nations General Assembly in New York; and an agent openly celebrated Charlie Kirk’s assassination in a Facebook post. Trump’s detail also allowed protesters at a D.C. restaurant to get close to Trump and several of his top Cabinet members and taunt them.

Ellis’ lawsuit alleges that his blocked transfer to a leadership position in the drone program quite possibly hindered advancements that might have prevented the 2024 Trump assassination attempts. A Senate report on the Butler failures faulted Secret Service leaders for denying counter-drone requests and technical failures. Then-Acting Director Ronald Rowe admitted to lapses during congressional testimony last year.

Ellis himself ties the Butler failures to Cheatle and prior leaders’ DEI priorities, arguing they favored quotas over merit, eroding standards and morale and agent retention. As the discovery process proceeds, the case may force DHS to address these leadership decisions.

“The relentless push by Secret Service leadership to meet diversity quotas has compromised our ability to meet our protectees’ needs,” Ellis said in a video posted on the Independent Women’s Forum website. IWF is a nonprofit conservative advocacy organization.

Despite efforts to dismantle DEI under the current administration, Ellis cautions that it will take years for the agency to recover.

“If we do not clean out the rot, our people – and our protectees – will pay the price,” he warned.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 18:25