Futures Rise, Nvidia Spikes After Trump Greenlights Selling Some Chips To China

US equity futures are higher, led by Tech with the biggest overnight news being that Trump is allowing NVDA to resume its (less advanced) H2O chip sales to China; there had been chatter of a chips-for-rare earths pact to thaw US/China trade relations.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%, with NVDA jumping another +5.3% in pre-market trading, while AMD +3.5%, MRVL +2.85, AVGO +1.4% also gained. The balance of Mag7 is mostly higher; semis are poised to be the best sub-group, and cyclicals are higher with banks with a mild bid into earnings this morning. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens into CPI with JPM noting that some FICC client convos are pointing to a dovish CPI print. The USD is weaker and commodities are declining across all 3 complexes though precious, crude, and sugar remain bid. Today’s focus is the unofficial kick off 25Q2 earnings and Banks have a low bar to cross and CPI is not yet expected to reflect the expected inflation from the trade war.  

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were higher: Nvidia rose 4.4% as the company planned to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China after securing Washington’s assurances that such shipments would get approved (Meta +0.6%, Apple +0.3%, Alphabet +0.2%, Amazon +0.2%, Tesla +0.2%, Microsoft -0.1%).

• Semiconductor firms also gain alongside Nvidia, including AMD (AMD) +5% and Broadcom (AVGO) +1.5%.
• Makers of wound-care products are falling after the US government proposed to change how skin substitutes are paid for.
• MiMedx (MDXG) tumbles 17% while Organogenesis (ORGO) sinks 25%
• BlackRock (BLK) falls 1.9% after the investment firm’s net inflows missed analyst estimates in the second quarter. The company’s reported assets under management beat the average analyst estimate.
• MP Materials (MP) gains 7% after Fox Business reported that Apple is set to announce a $500 million deal with the company for rare earths produced in the US, citing people familiar with the matter.
• Trade Desk (TTD) rallies 14% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the advertising technology company will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens on July 18.
• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) falls about 2% after lowering its full-year guidance for net interest income, after another quarter of tepid growth amid the ongoing trade war.

Outside of earnings, micro focus this am is on NVDA (+5%) with the company planning to resume H20 chip sales to China after assurances from Washington that shipments will be approved. After the White House banned exports in April, it’s a surprise reversal that may add billions to Nvidia’s revenue this year. The move may help spur easing tensions between US-China trade negotiations/furthers the "TACO" trade. TTD (+15%) set to replace ANSS in S&P 500. 

For Nvidia, the approval of export licenses for the H20 chip not only boosts its earnings prospects but also bodes well for progress in trade talks between the White House and key partners. With stocks trading near record highs, investors will also gain a clearer read on corporate health as major banks mark the unofficial start of earnings season.

“The US policy reversal on selling AI chips to China clearly constitutes good news for the industry,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de L’Echiquier. “Other than that, the upward trend is still being fueled by investors riding the TACO trade — there are threats but they have yet to materialize.”

CPI is the big macro event for today: economist estimates for m/m change range from 0.1% to 0.4%, with the median 0.3%. June report is first of three to be released before Fed’s September meeting, for which traders have priced in 15bp of easing (see our CPI preview here). Goldman warns to watch for: 1) weakness in used cars, 2) modest increase in car insurance, 3) modest rebound in airfare, 4) +0.08pp increase on core inflation from tariff pressures. After months of seeing little inflation, CPI probably experienced slightly faster growth in June as companies started to pass along higher costs of imported merchandise associated with tariffs. The options market is betting the S&P 500 will swing 0.6% in either direction after the release. 

It’s still too early to gauge the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff agenda on inflation, said Arend Kapteyn, UBS Group AG’s global head of economic and strategy research. He noted that July’s data, set to be released next month, would likely provide the earliest indication of any clear effect. The lag is helping to underpin the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see approach to cutting interest rates, with swaps pricing in less than two quarter-points of monetary easing this year.

“We’re about to go into a five- to six-month period of accelerating inflation,” Kapteyn told Bloomberg TV. “It’s a trade-off between when does the labor market starts to ease, starts to crack — and we’re already seeing some signs of that — versus how quickly is the inflation data increasing.”

The latgest Fund Managers Survey by Bank of America showed that fund managers are rushing back into risky assets at a record pace on optimism over economic growth and strong corporate profits. The share of investors taking a higher-than-normal risk level in their portfolios registered the biggest increase over a three-month span going back to 2001, the poll showed. It also pointed to strong increases in allocations to US and European stocks, as well as tech shares.

“We are still far from levels where we would advocate a short, but given valuation and positioning, it makes sense to take some chips off the table,” he said.

European stocks advance with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. Technology, media and auto shares are leading gains as Nvidia plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China. Among individual stocks, B&M sinks to a record low following a weak first quarter. Here are the biggest European movers:

• European semiconductor stocks are gaining ground on Tuesday as Nvidia plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China.
• Experian shares advance as much as 5.2%, touching a new record high, after the UK credit services firm reported first-quarter organic revenue growth that beat estimates.
• Orsted climbs as much as 6.4% after Morgan Stanley upgrades the Danish offshore wind developer to overweight from equal-weight, saying in note that an improving risk/reward makes it “worth a fresh look.”
• Accelleron shares jump as much as 13% to a record high after the Swiss engine parts maker raised its guidance.
• Trustpilot Group shares rise 12% to the highest since March after the British holding company’s preliminary first-half revenue beat the average analyst estimate.
• TomTom shares rise as much as 11% on Tuesday after the GPS-maker narrowed its revenue forecast for the full year by lifting the bottom rung of the range.
• Ericsson shares fall as much as 4.4% after the telecom equipment maker said sales growth in 3Q is expected to be below average seasonality over the past three years.
• B&M shares plunge as much as 14%, hitting their lowest level on record, after posting weaker topline growth than anticipated in the first quarter despite weak comparatives and favorable weather.
• Barratt Redrow shares plummet as much as 13%, after the property developer said it built fewer houses than hoped in FY25 and posted disappointing guidance for FY26.
• Solvay falls as much as 4.2% as JPMorgan says it “joins the profit warning party,” with the Belgian firm becoming the latest in the European chemicals space to cut its guidance.
• AFRY slumps as much as 9.2% after its second-quarter results, the Swedish engineering consultancy’s biggest decline since its previous quarterly statement in late April.
• Azoty shares drop 3.1% to the lowest since June 24 after Orlen indicated it’s not interested in buying the Polish chemicals producer’s polymers project.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also advanced as Nvidia’s plan to resume some chip sales to China stoked optimism over geopolitics. Chinese shares were mixed as the latest economic data raised concerns over pressure on domestic consumption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7% after Nvidia said it plans to restart sales of its H20 AI accelerator to China. Alibaba, Tencent and TSMC were the biggest boosts to the gauge. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea advanced. Mainland Chinese shares fluctuated after macro numbers showed an uneven recovery. While economic growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter thanks to strong exports to markets outside the US, consumer demand at home remained weak. That’s bound to keep investors cautious after a recent equity rally.  Elsewhere, traders are positioning for the weekend upper house election in Japan. Sentiment is cautious, as a surge in bond yields underscored mounting worries about the nation’s fiscal situation. Markets are watching the JGB yield breakout ahead of upper house elections & potential pressure on US rates. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% ahead of US inflation data that is forecast to show an acceleration in CPI for June. The euro and pound both add 0.2%. 

In rates, Treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.41% ahead of June CPI data, supported by bigger gains in European bond markets, where curves are similarly flatter.  European government bonds rise with little reaction seen in bunds to stronger-than-expected German ZEW data and a beat for euro-area industrial production. Short-dated US government bond yields rose after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it would be confusing for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to remain at the central bank after his term ends, adding that a “formal process” has already begun to identify a potential successor.

In commodities, oil prices are little changed, paring earlier losses with WTI near $67 a barrel. Spot gold climbs $18 to around $3,362/oz. Bitcoin retreats 3% to near $117,000. 

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes July Empire manufacturing and June CPI (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:15am), Barr (12:45pm), Barkin (1pm), Collins (2:45pm) and Logan (7:45pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.1%, CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.41%
• VIX -0.4 points at 16.8
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1200.91
• euro +0.2% at $1.1682
• WTI crude little changed at $67.03/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Fed Chair Powell responded to Senate Banking Chair Scott and Senator Warren regarding building renovations in which he stated the inspector general had full access to project information and receives monthly reports, while he has asked the board's inspector general to take a fresh look at the project, according to Politico and Reuters
• Stocks advanced after Nvidia Corp. secured US assurances to resume sales of some artificial intelligence chips to China, lifting sentiment on a busy day that also features inflation data and big bank earnings.
• Gold advanced, recovering from Monday’s modest drop, as investors digested mixed messages from the US regarding the progress of trade negotiations.
• Japan’s long-term government debt yield touched the highest level since 2008, as a raft of election tax-cut pledges puts investors on edge and risks higher costs all around in the country.
• Liquidity in sovereign bond markets is falling and term premium is rising. With little sign of budgetary restraint almost anywhere, a fiscal crisis in a developed bond market is not inconceivable.
• Euro hedging costs are subdued ahead of key US inflation data, as summer trading conditions and a shift in market focus toward labor metrics dampen demand for short-dated gamma.
• Stocks traders appear to be looking past the possibility of a stronger-than-expected inflation reading on Tuesday, putting them in a vulnerable position if President Donald Trump’s trade war leaves its mark on US consumer prices.
• US President Donald Trump’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Russia would risk complicating relations with two nations crucial to his economic and strategic goals: China and India.
• Kevin Warsh, a top contender to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, is finally ready to cut interest rates. As a governor at the US central bank from 2006 to 2011, Warsh called for higher rates even in the depths of the financial crisis, warning often of impending inflation. That’s a concern he’s reiterated as recently as last year. But this year, Warsh has become an enthusiastic supporter of lower borrowing costs.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Department of Commerce announced it is withdrawing from and terminating the 2019 agreement suspending anti-dumping duty investigation on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, while it is issuing an anti-dumping duty order, resulting in duties of 17.09% on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico.
• Mexico's Economy Ministry rejected the US decision on tomato duties which it considered unfair and against the interests of both Mexican producers and US industry, while it will support local tomato producers to seek a deal under which the duty is suspended.
• EU draws up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in case a trade deal is not reached with aircraft and booze among imports targeted as EU debates how to respond to Trump’s latest trade threats, according to WSJ.
• Japanese PM Ishiba and trade negotiator Akazawa are to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent during his trip to Japan, while the meeting is being considered for July 18th in Tokyo, according to Yomiuri.
• Japan's Economy Minister and trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan is still arranging the makeup of attendees for the US National Day at Osaka Expo, while he added they will continue dialogue through various channels to seek an agreement with the US on tariffs.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the region indecisive in the aftermath of the latest Chinese GDP and activity data, while participants also awaited CPI data and the start of earnings season stateside. ASX 200 gained with strength in tech and some defensive sectors, while the positive sentiment was also facilitated by an increase in Consumer Confidence and as Australian PM Albanese met with Chinese President Xi. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively following recent currency weakness and rising JGB yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged following the somewhat mixed tier-1 data releases from China in which GDP figures for Q2 and Industrial Production in June topped forecasts but Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Investments disappointed, while House Prices were varied and continued to contract.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi met with Australian PM Albanese and said it is most important to seek common ground while sharing differences and that China is ready to work with the Australian side to push bilateral ties further and make great progress. Furthermore, Australian PM Albanese said in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that they welcome progress on cooperation on free trade and value their relationship with China, while he added they will continue to approach the relationship in a calm and consistent manner guided by their national interest.
• China's stats bureau spokesperson reiterated that the economic foundation needs to be consolidated and stated that overall economic performance in H1 was stable with steady progress, although structural contradictions within the economy have not been fundamentally alleviated. The stats bureau official stated that domestic demand as a contribution to economic growth has been a driving force for GDP but noted that they need to improve investment structure and environment, while the real estate market is heading towards stabilisation and policy support to boost consumption in H1 should sustain spending in H2. Furthermore, it was stated that China is at a critical moment in improving consumption structure and it will supplement policy support with measures to ensure a stable operation of the economy.
• China held its urban work conference and will vigorously promote the optimisation of urban structure, while it will pay more attention to overall urban planning and make efforts to build innovative cities with vitality, according to Xinhua.
• Japan and the EU will issue a joint statement to strengthen economic alliance with a focus on trade, tech and supply chain coordination, according to Yomiuri.
• China Commerce Ministry announces revisions to export control catalogue. Revises procedures for handling Gallium metal extraction tech. Adds battery cathode material prep tech to control list.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are modestly firmer across the board, paring some of the pressure seen in the prior session but with gains capped ahead of today's key risk event, US CPI. European sectors hold a positive bias. Tech takes the top spot, with the chip sector boosted after NVIDIA (+5.0% pre-market) said it will resume H20 AI chip shipments to China. Telecoms is pressured by post-earning losses in Ericsson (-2.4%).

Top European News

• BoE is announcing a "package of measures designed to maintain stability in the financial sector while offering new growth opportunities for mid-sized banks and building societies.".
• Incoming ECB member Radev says any further steps should remain firmly data dependent; I share the view that the threshold for additional rate cuts should remain high".
• UK Chancellor Reeves says under new reforms, banks will send investment opportunities to savers with cash sitting in low interest accounts for the first time. Govt will allow long term asst funds to be held in stocks and shares ISAs next year

FX

• DXY is giving back some of Monday's gains in quiet trade as markets await crucial CPI data for June. Core M/M CPI is expected to pick up to 0.3% from 0.1% with the Y/Y rate seen rising to 3.0% from 2.8%. The release will be parsed for any evidence that Trump's tariff policy is adding to price pressures in the US. DXY briefly made its way onto a 98 handle, matchings Monday's best at 98.12.
• EUR is firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD as markets await any material breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations. On which, WSJ reports that the EU has drawn up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in the event a trade deal is not reached with aircraft and booze among the imports targeted. Elsewhere, it was reported that the ECB is to discuss a more negative scenario next week than previously envisaged in June after Trump's latest tariff threat, but is still seen as holding rates at the meeting. German ZEW data showed a better-than-expected improvement for the expectations and current conditions components but failed to have any sway on EUR. Elsewhere, French political risk could be a focus later today with French PM Bayrou to outline a plan to narrow France's deficit; will likely lead to calls for a vote of no confidence.
• JPY flat vs. the USD, halting a recent run of declines. Yen traders are still trying to assess the likelihood of an imminent US-Japan trade deal. Yen traders will also be mindful of the movements in the back-end of the Japanese curve, which, in part, has been supported by expectations of looser fiscal policy by Japan as a result of this weekend's election. USD/JPY ventured as high as 147.88 overnight before fading upside.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and flat vs. the EUR. Newsflow surrounding the UK have been quiet at the start of the week given the UK has already secured a trade agreement with the US. However, newsflow is set to pick up with Mansion House text releases from BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves due at 21:00BST today.
• Antipodeans are both towards the top of the G10 leaderboard on account of the bounce back in risk sentiment seen today. Both also digested mixed tier-1 data releases from China in which GDP figures for Q2 and Industrial Production in June topped forecasts, but Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Investments disappointed, while House Prices were varied and continued to contract.
• CAD is a touch softer vs. the USD in the run up to Canadian inflation metrics (coincides with the US release). As it stands, the BoC is currently on pause and avoiding forward guidance with the central bank taking a meeting-by-meeting due to economic uncertainty.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1758 (Prev. 7.1491)

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat and in narrow ranges ahead of US CPI. CPI is expected to pick up to 0.3% M/M in June (prev. 0.1%) for both the headline and core. While the Y/Y is seen at 2.7% (prev. 2.4%) and 3.0% (prev. 2.8%) for the headline and core respectively. A series that will be, primarily, scrutinised for any signs of tariff-induced price pressures.
• Bunds are leading peers, firmer by just under 50 ticks at best having peaked at 129.65 thus far. Upside that takes the benchmark to within reach of Friday’s 129.74 peak but leaves it shy of 130.00 and then multiple past peaks above, which continue all the way back to 131.95 from mid-June when the recent downward trend began. Outperformance potentially as the complex takes a breather from recent pressure and as traders digest reports the ECB will discuss a more negative tariff scenario at next week's meeting. No move in Bunds following the German ZEW figures, which were firmer-than-expected.
• OATs also firmer but to a lesser degree than Bunds. PM Bayrou from 15:00BST will begin presenting details of the 2026 budget. The goal will be cost savings of EUR 40bln by 2026, in order to bring the deficit-to-GDP ratio down to 4.6% vs the 5.4% projected for 2025, in-line with their fiscal commitments to the EU.
• Gilts are firmer, between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. The immediate docket is light for the UK as we count down to the Mansion House speeches by BoE’s Bailey and Chancellor Reeves; the latter expected to announce a package amounting to the ‘biggest financial regulation reforms in a decade’. Into this, Gilts are at the upper-end of a 91.86 to 92.06 band. Notching a WTD peak and now eyeing 92.19 from last Thursday before that week’s 92.63 best.
• UK DMO sells GBP 1.0bln in 4.25% 2032 Gilts via tender: b/c 4.42x & avg. yield 4.161%.
• Germany sells EUR 3.899bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 1.90% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.3x, average yield 1.87% and retention 22.02%.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are currently lower in what has been a choppy session thus far; price action overnight was rangebound which continued into European hours where newsflow remained light up until a Trump-Russia related FT article. The report suggested that US President Trump asked Ukraine's Zelenskiy if Ukraine could hit Moscow if the US provided them with long-range weapons; the Ukrainian President replied with "absolutely...". This report sparked some modest upside, which then continued for around 30 minutes thereafter, taking Brent Sept'25 to a fresh session peak of USD 69.36/bbl.
• Precious metals are mixed, with slight gains seen in spot Silver/Gold whilst Palladium is a little lower. The yellow-metal currently trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,341.55-3,365.72/oz range, but with price action fairly muted ahead of US CPI. 3M LME Copper trades towards the mid-point of a narrow USD 9,602.33-9,656.5/t range.
• Base metals hold a negative bias, with incremental losses seen in 3M LME Copper prices as trades digest the latest Chinese GDP and activity metrics.
• Kazakhstan's PM Bektenov says they try to comply with OPEC+ commitments as much as possible. Not considering options to withdraw from the deal.
• China has lowered gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 130/ton and CNY 124/ton, respectively as of July 16th.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump reportedly asked Ukrainian President Zelensky if Ukraine could hit Moscow in the scenario that the US provided long-ranged weapons, via FT citing sources; call that this conversation occurred within took place on July 4th. To the question from Trump, Zelensky reportedly replied, "Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons." Trump reportedly signalled support for the idea, as a strategy to force Russia to the negotiating table. US president said to have encouraged Ukrainian leader to "step up deep strikes on Russia".
• Russian Kremlin says US President Trump's statement is serious and needs to be analysed Putin will comment on it if he deems it necessary. Decisions taken in Washington and Brussels are seen by Ukraine as a signal to continue the war. Russia is ready for a next round of talks with Ukraine. However, there have been no proposals for the Ukraine side so far.
• EU Foreign Representative Kallas says it is a good sign that the US appears to realise Russia does not want peace with Ukraine, hope the US will move forward with more sanctions against Russia.
• "Hamas member and leader Faraj al-Ghoul was killed in an Israeli raid", according to Al Arabiya.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jul Empire Manufacturing, est. -9.2, prior -16
• 8:30 am: Jun CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
• 8:30 am: Jun CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.26%, prior 0.1%
• 8:30 am: Jun CPI YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.4%
• 8:30 am: Jun CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.93%, prior 2.8%
• 8:30 am: Jun CPI Index NSA, est. 322.51, prior 321.46
• 8:30 am: Jun CPI Core Index SA, est. 327.82, prior 326.85

Central Banks Speakers

• 9:15 am: Fed’s Bowman Gives Welcoming Remarks
• 12:45 pm: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Financial Inclusion
• 1:00 pm: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech in Baltimore
• 2:45 pm: Fed’s Collins Delivers Closing Keynote at NABelgium Event
• 7:45 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks on the Economy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to US CPI day and to the start of US earnings season with several banks reporting later on. I’ve just about recovered from a day out yesterday at a Theme Park where I managed to get away with just one baby rollercoaster. Maisie and the twins went on about 20! They are all now tall enough to not need me anymore for ALL the rides. My job here is done! I never have to go on a rollercoaster again. My biggest stress was trying to keep up with a very tense game of cricket between England and India without my wife knowing I wasn't paying attention to what the family were saying. The CPI print will get my full attention today though as a lot will rest on inflation in the coming months including whether the Fed can cut rates, how the Trump administration’s tariff policy will be received, and most importantly how it impacts long-end bonds with fiscal balance sheets stretched in many countries. See our US economists' preview here. They expect monthly headline CPI to come in at a 5-month high of +0.34%, with core also at a 5-month high of +0.32%. We seem to be the highest on the street with consensus at +0.27% and +0.25% respectively.

If DB is correct, that would push up the year-on-year numbers, with headline CPI up three-tenths to +2.7%, and core CPI up two-tenths to +3.0%. Consensus is a tenth lower on both. We’ll mostly be focusing on signs of tariff-related inflation in the core good categories. President Trump continued to beat the low inflation drum yesterday though, saying "we have no inflation", and that "we should be less than 1%" when referring to interest rates.

Ahead of today's big print, markets have been a bit mixed to start the week as the weekend tariff headlines reverberate, and global long-end bonds continued to edge higher. However US futures are edging up this morning (Nasdaq futures +0.3%) after Nvidia have seemingly been given the green light to resume exporting their H20 chips to China that were suspended in April.

We saw significant headlines on Russia yesterday, as Trump threatened to impose 100% “secondary tariffs” if a ceasefire deal with Ukraine isn’t reached in 50 days. Trump’s announcement was vague on details, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick referring to both “tariffs” and “secondary sanctions”. Reporting later on appeared to confirm that this would include tariffs against buyers of Russian minerals, similar to a proposed sanctions bill in the Senate that is now set to be paused. This could impact the likes of China and India, which account for most of Russia’s oil exports, though there are doubts over how practical such secondary tariffs would be to implement. For now, with any swift definitive sanctions against Russian oil being avoided, oil prices actually saw a decent slump yesterday. Brent crude fell -1.63% to $69.21/bbl, which helped to ease some of the inflationary fears after the weekend tariff announcements. Trump’s comments came during his meeting with NATO Secretary General Rutte, at which he also announced that the US will send additional Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine that will be paid for by Europe.

Trump also made some brief remarks on trade, saying that he is “always open to talk”, including with the EU, even as he insisted the recent US letters to trading partners “are the deals" and "there are no deals to make". That left plenty of ambiguity as markets continued to digest the 30% tariff threats made to the EU and Mexico over the weekend. According to AFP, the European Commission said it would propose a new list of US goods worth €72bn that could be subject to EU tariffs should talks between Washington and Brussels fail. Our European economists yesterday published a blog on the potential impact of 30% tariffs (see here).

For the most part, markets yesterday brushed off the prospects of fresh trade escalation, with the STOXX 600 (-0.06%) recovering to little changed after opening -0.6% down. The more trade-sensitive German DAX did decline by -0.39%, alongside a -0.27% fall for the CAC 40, but the FSTMIB (+0.27%) advanced and here in the UK the FTSE 100 (+0.64%) hit a fresh all-time high. Mexican equities struggled a bit more though, with the S&P/BMW IPC index falling -0.41%. This came as President Sheinbaum confirmed that Mexico has a tariff plan should an agreement by August 1 fail.

The equity performance was more positive in the US, with the S&P 500 (+0.14%) closing within 0.2% of last week’s record high. The resilience came as Bitcoin (+2.10%) continued to climb past $120,000 and to a new record, helping fintech and payments companies like PayPal (+3.55%), Coinbase (+1.80%) and Visa (+0.74%). Bitcoin is now up nearly +75% since the US election last November. The Magnificent 7 (+0.10%) saw a modest gain yesterday, with Meta up +0.48% after CEO Zuckerberg said it will invest “hundreds of billions” in a push for AI superintelligence.

Ahead of today's CPI release, fed futures slightly dialled back their expectations for rate cuts this year, with the amount priced by December down -1.8bps on the day to 48bps, its lowest in nearly four weeks. That helped to push Treasury yields higher, with the 2yr yield (+1.4bps) rising to 3.90%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.4bps) rose to 4.43% and 30yr closed +2.8bps to 4.98%, the highest close since May 23. Overnight, Treasury yields are flat as we go to print but 30yr JGB yields are up another +1.9bps ahead of the Upper House elections this weekend and have traded at their highest level since 1999. 10yr JGBs are around a basis point higher and earlier touched the highest level since 2008. So lots bubbling under the surface in Japan.

Meanwhile in Europe, yields also moved higher yesterday amidst growing concern about the fiscal trajectory, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+2.0bps) and BTPs (+2.2bps) all rising. There was also a fresh rise in 30yr yields to multi-year highs, with the 30yr yields in Germany (+2.1bps to 3.24%) and France (+4.5bps to 4.24%) reaching their highest levels since 2011. For France, that followed President Macron’s announcement that the 2026 defence budget would be increased by €3.5bn in 2026, followed by another €3bn in 2027. By contrast, UK gilts outperformed, with the 10yr yield down -2.2bps on the day.

In Asia markets are mixed. Chinese stocks are underperforming, with the Hang Seng (+0.08%) struggling to maintain its initial gains despite Nvidia’s H20 announcement, while the CSI (-0.45%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.98%) are both declining. The Nikkei (+0.12%) is seeing slight gains, and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.54%) is also trading positively. However, South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.11%) is dipping after a good run.

Returning to China, GDP increased by +5.2% in the second quarter, outperforming Bloomberg's estimates of +5.1%, although this marks a deceleration from the +5.4% growth recorded in the first quarter. Most of the growth bias is export led over domestic, which was backed up by retail sales growth decelerating to 4.8% YoY in June (v/s +5.3% expected), down from a 6.4% YoY increase in May. Industrial output rose by +6.8% YoY though, exceeding market expectations of 5.6%. Fixed asset investment increased by +2.8% in the first half of this year, falling short of market predictions of a +3.6% rise. Simultaneously, the decline in real estate investment intensified, dropping -11.2% in the first half of the year, compared to a -10.9% decrease in the first five months, while investments in infrastructure and manufacturing also showed signs of slowing.

Finally, as I mentioned at the top, “Crypto Week” is happening in Washington D.C., where the House of Representatives are set to vote on the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act. The GENIUS Act’s vote in particular could have serious implications for the rapidly growing stablecoin industry – and for US debt markets – and a vote can be expected as early as end of today.

To the day ahead now, as I mentioned look out for the US CPI release. We’ll also get the US July Empire Manufacturing Index, Germany’s July ZEW Survey, Eurozone May Industrial Production, and Canada’s June CPI. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman, Barr, Collins and Barkin, and BoE Governor Bailey. Earnings include JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup and BNY Mellon

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 08:26

Drone Attacks On Northern Iraqi Oil Field On The Rise Amid Iran Tensions

On Monday an explosive-laden drone sought to target vital infrastructure in northern Iraq, in an area known to host final remnants of US troops and officials. The US has long been most closely involved with Iraqi Kurdistan.

The drone carrying explosives was intercepted and brought down early Monday near Erbil International Airport in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, local officials said. A later, separate nighttime (Monday) attack targeted a key oil field in the region.

Image source: Rudaw

The region’s Directorate General of Counter Terrorism stated that the drone targeting the airport was shot down at 2:20 a.m. local time (2320 GMT on Sunday).

While no casualties or property damage resulted, and no group has taken responsibility for the incident so far, it suggests the possibility that Iran-allied Shia paramilitaries could be ready to cause havoc, following the 12-day Israel-Iran war last June, which the US also became involved in through bombing three nuclear facilities.

Iraq has seen a rise in drone-related attacks in recent weeks - with for example earlier this month security forces having shot down another explosive drone near Erbil Airport.

And recently similar device was intercepted near a Kurdish Peshmerga base in Kirkuk province. This brings up the possibility of anti-Kurdish factions, or even the possibility of remnant ISIS cells.

In the night hours of Monday, there are new reports of yet another drone attack in the region, and this time unverified videos suggest that damage has been done (unconfirmed):

Pictures of the oil field in Erbil province, Iraqi Kurdistan, targeted by anonymous drones. pic.twitter.com/63M1cdqB6Q

— The Outpost (@outpostosint) July 14, 2025

According to Rudaw English, a Kurdish regional outlet:

Two explosive-laden drones target the Khurmala oil field in Erbil province, resulting in no casualties - citing Kurdish counterterrorism units.

The oil field lies southwest of Erbil, and reports suggest they were intercepted by US-led coalition forces on Monday night. The area lies about 60 kilometers from Erbil city.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 08:15

Nvidia, AMD Get Green Light To Restart Certain AI Chip Sales To China

Update (0805ET):

Bloomberg reports, "AMD received similar assurances from the US Commerce Department and plans to restart shipments of its MI308 chips to China once licenses for sales are approved." 

This means both AMD and Nvidia will be able to resume shipments of certain AI chips to China, pending license approvals. 

In premarket trading, shares of both AMD and Nvidia were trading 4.5% higher. 

Earlier, Nvidia announced that its H20 AI chips would be approved for export to China under a U.S. export license... Read below.

*   *   * 

 

Nvidia shares rose as much as 5% in premarket trading in New York after the company announced in a blog post that exports of its H20 AI chips to China would be approved under a U.S. export license — a major reversal from the Trump administration's earlier stance aimed at curbing Beijing's AI ambitions.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited the White House last week, appeared in a CNN interview on Sunday, and is now in China, where he met with government and industry officials to discuss AI.

In his CNN interview, Huang emphasized that ensuring U.S. leadership in the AI race requires global AI systems to be built on the American tech stack, not Chinese technology. In other words, export restrictions on Nvidia chips would need to be lifted.

CNN's Fareed Zakaria speaks with Jensen Huang. Source: CNN

Nvidia's blog post provided further details on the resumption of H20 AI chip shipments to China:

In Beijing, Huang met with government and industry officials to discuss how AI will raise productivity and expand opportunity. The discussions underscored how researchers worldwide can advance safe and secure AI for the benefit of all.

Huang also provided an update to customers, noting that NVIDIA is filing applications to sell the NVIDIA H20 GPU again. The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon.

Well telegraphed... 

• Nvidia CEO Makes Pit Stop At White House Before China Trip

• "Don't Have To Worry": Nvidia CEO Says China's Army Won't Rely On U.S. AI Chips

• Nvidia CEO Calls Biden-Era AI Curbs A "Failure" With China

Nvidia previously projected it would lose billions of dollars in revenue this quarter due to sales restrictions. In the fiscal first quarter, it took a $4.5 billion charge related to the licensing rule, citing "excess inventory and purchase obligations as demand for the H20 diminished." The company estimated that the rule led to $2.5 billion in lost first-quarter revenue and anticipated an additional $8 billion in losses in the second quarter. 

In May, Huang told investors, "The $50 billion China market is effectively closed to U.S. industry." Now it appears the Chinese market is back on the table. 

The approval of export licenses for the H20 chip will serve as a goodwill gesture by the Trump administration to progress trade talks with Beijing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 08:05

JPMorgan Beats Top And Bottom Line On Solid Investment Banking, Trading Results

Q2 earnings season has officially begun as the big banks start reporting results, and the first one as usual is JPMorgan, with no surprises after yet another top and bottom line beat. Here is a snapshot of what the largest US banks just reported:

• Adjusted EPS $4.96, beating estimates of $4.47
• Adjusted revenue $45.68 billion, beating estimates of $44.05 billion, but down $5.3 billion from a year ago due to a slide in non-interest revenue. 
• Managed net interest income $23.31 billion, missing estimate $23.59 billion
  • FICC sales & trading revenue $5.69 billion, beating estimates of $5.22 billion
  • Equities sales & trading revenue $3.25 billion, beating estimate of $3.2 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $2.68 billion, beating estimates of  $2.16 billion
  • Advisory revenue $844 million, beating estimates of $672.2 million
  • Equity underwriting rev. $465 million, beating estimates of $351.4 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $1.20 billion, beating estimates of $1.01 billion

JPMorgan's provision for Q2 credit losses was $2.85BN, below the est. $3.22BN, as a result of net charge-offs of $2.41 billion (just under the $2.46 billion estimated) and a reserve build which shrank to $0.4 billion, down from $1.0 billion in Q1 and $0.8 billion a year ago. The bank said that charge-offs were"“primarily driven by Card Services." Putting this number in context, JPMorgan reported a credit card net charge-off rate of 3.4%, less than the 3.66% that analysts predicted. And some more context: American credit card balances hit $1.18 trillion outstanding in the first three months of the year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The effective tax rate for the company was 18.0%, below the 21.3% managed tax rate. This is notable because the bank discussed a “significant item” which appears to be an income tax benefit that represents $774 million of net income (and $0.28 of earnings per share).  Some more from a footnote: “Second-quarter 2025 net income, earnings per share and ROTCE excluding the $774mm income tax benefit are non-GAAP financial measures. Excluding this item resulted in a decrease of $774mm (after tax) to reported net income from $15.0B to $14.2B; a decrease of $0.28 per share to reported EPS from $5.24 to $4.96; and a decrease of 1% to ROTCE from 21% to 20%. Management believes these measures provide useful information to investors and analysts in assessing the firm’s results.” 

And visually:

Commenting on the quarter, Jamie Dimon called the results “strong” noting that “each of the lines of business performed well." Discussing CIB, he noted that “we supported clients as they navigated volatile market conditions" adding that the group “gained momentum as market sentiment improved." In CCB, Dimon touted about 500,000 net new checking accounts, and cited “positive early reactions” to the “refreshed Sapphire Reserve.” In AWM, “asset management fees rose 10%.” 

And while Dimon mentions the announced dividend boost, he says the bank has “far in excess of our required capital levels,” along with “an extraordinary amount of liquidity.” Sure enough, JPMorgan’s return on equity hit 18%, which then goes all the way up to 21% if you’re using ROTCE. Here it is visualized.

The positive sentiment from Dimon in his comments also extended to the US economy, which he says “remained resilient.” Looking ahead, he calls out “the finalization of tax reform and potential deregulation,” as you might expect. But Dimon added a word of warning that “significant risks persist,” especially “from tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.”

Turning to the most profitable group, Commercial and Investment Banking, JPMorgan’s traders notched a record first half with $8.9 billion in markets revenue.
The volatility around trade policy drove a lot of activity as investors repositioned their holdings. 

• JPMorgan’s FICC revenue topped predictions, coming in at $5.7 billion, beating estimates of $5.22 billion,  “driven by higher revenue in Currencies & Emerging Markets, Rates and Commodities, partially offset by lower revenue in the Securitized Products Group and Fixed Income Financing.” 
• Equity Sales and Trading of $3.25 billion also beat estimates of $3.2 billion, "driven by higher revenue across products, notably in Derivatives."
• Investment banking revenue also beat expectations, coming in at $2.7 billion, up 9%. The number was 15% higher from the prior year, boding well for typical leaders Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which report on July 16. As BBG reminds us, one thing to note is that JPM floated an internal memo from yesterday which said that the bank is creating a unit focused specifically on bespoke financing structures as public and private markets converge.

Elsewhere, average loans were up 5% year over year and average deposits were up 6%, with both up 3% if you’re looking at quarter over quarter. 

Taking a quick look at the bank’s asset and wealth management division, the group generated $1.5 billion of net income up 17% compared to a year ago as net revenue was up 10% to $5.8 billion, “driven by growth in management fees on strong net inflows and higher average market levels, as well as higher brokerage activity and higher deposit balances.” Assets under management were up 18% to $4.3 trillion and client assets were up 19% to $6.4 trillion, “driven by continued net inflows and higher market levels.” And yet $3.7 billion of noninterest expense was up 5%, “driven by higher compensation, including higher revenue-related compensation and continued growth in private banking advisor teams, as well as higher distribution fees.” 

Finally, while the corporate division is usually ignored by most investors, this quarter it was somewhat more notable as it generated $1.7 billion of net income down a remarkable-sounding $5.1 billion. Here's why: $49 million of noninterest revenue was down $7.7 billion, “driven by the absence of the $7.9 billion net gain related to Visa shares in the prior year, partially offset by lower net investment securities losses.”

Another notable item: “the current quarter included a $774 million income tax benefit” - that’s the one we talked about earlier - “driven by the resolution of certain tax audits and the impact of tax regulations finalized in 2024 related to foreign currency translation gains and losses.” Expect this disclosure to spark questions during the investor call. 

JPM also reported 317,160 employees down slightly from 318,477 in this year’s first quarter, but up from 313,206 a year ago. This leads directly to the bank’s $13.7 billion of compensation expense which was just higher than what analysts expected. 

The bank also reported a total $4.55 trillion of assets, which represents a 10% jump from where they were only a year ago, a whopping increase. As Bloomberg puts it, "It’s like the biggest bank in the US bought two big regional rivals -- a pair of top-20 US banks -- in the span of 12 months or so." Or, rather, was gifted as in the case of the 2023 bank crisis when the FDIC promptly made Jamie Dimon an even bigger billionaire. 

Finally, looking at the company's outlook, it once again raised its net interest income projection by $1 billion, from $94.5 billion to $95.5 billion.

The results, which generally beat across the board, were solid but not stellar enough to blow the market away which had already priced JPM stock to perfection, and the shares are trading fractionally lower premarket just shy of record highs.

Full Q2 presentation below

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 08:01

MP Materials Surges 10%, Apple To Announce $500 Million Partnership, Joining Pentagon As Investors

Apple is reportedly set to join the Pentagon as an investor in MP Materials and announce a $500 million partnership with the company, according to a Fox Business report citing individuals familiar with the matter this morning.

MP shares surged more than 10% on the news in a move that comes after a more than 100% gain over the last several months for the critical U.S. rare Earth mineral company. 

The deal includes a commitment from Apple to purchase rare earth magnets produced at MP’s facility in Texas, using domestically sourced materials. As part of the agreement, the two companies are also expected to develop a new recycling facility in Mountain Pass, California, to recover and repurpose rare earth elements from used electronics.

In addition, Apple and MP plan to build a second manufacturing plant in Fort Worth, Texas, further solidifying a U.S.-based supply chain for these critical materials.

Over a month ago, we flagged MP and USA Rare Earth as two companies likely to be major winners from Washington’s rare earth reshoring push—particularly under policies aimed at reducing reliance on China. Since we first mentioned it more than a month ago, the stock is up more than 100%.

We noted at the time that MP’s uniquely central role in the domestic rare earth supply chain positioned it for outperformance, and we pointed out that the stock had an enormous 21% short interest, making it ripe for a squeeze.

Recall that one year ago, in our April 2024 note titled "Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed by Morgan Stanley," we identified MP Materials as "one company that stands to benefit" from the restoration of America's rare earth supply chain. 

Further, our most recent report for subscribers "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit: All You Need To Know About The "Ex-China Supply Chain" detailed why MP stood to substantially outperform in the coming months and years as the critical rare earth supply chain was shifted domestically to exclude China, and to benefit domestic miners and producers such as MP. 

Our conviction was promptly validated days ago when the U.S. government—via the State Department and the Pentagon—took a 15% stake in MP, an exceedingly rare move that made the U.S. the company’s largest shareholder.

The investment marked a "transformational" public-private partnership by the Trump admin, aimed at building a domestic rare earth element supply chain. As part of the deal, the Pentagon will receive convertible preferred shares and warrants equal to a 15% stake—surpassing stakes held by CEO James Litinsky and BlackRock. The shares convert at $30.03 each and carry no cash dividend.

MP stock surged over 50% on the news, becoming the top performer in the mining sector this year and more than covering the cost of our premium subscription for readers who acted quickly.

That was great news. But it was even better news that among the biggest shorts were Goldman's hedge fund clients who, for months, had plotted and schemed how to unobtrusively short the name during the bank's various idea dinner events.

Here is an excerpt from the latest note by Goldman energy and natural resources specialist Adam Wijaya out days ago:

Rare Earths… how high… biggest move in the space yesterday came from Rare Earths complex… led by MP +51%... have hosted several Metals idea dinners over the last few weeks and this name has been a consensus short… pain yesterday was real...

Now, that pain is very likely going to continue today. Thanks, "Tim Apple". 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 06:55

China Q2 GDP Drops To 5.2% But Beats Expectations Thanks To Subsidies And Tariff Frontrunning

China's GDP grew 5.2% on the year in the second quarter, just fractionally above expectations (as is usually the case when Beijing reports fake numbers) the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday, fueled by frontloaded exports ahead of even more tariffs and a flood of subsidies that supported the manufacturing sector.

The figure beat the median forecast for 5.1% growth but was slower than the 5.4% expansion in the first quarter. Still, it keeps the country on track to meet the government's growth target of "around 5%" for the full year.

Exports rose 5.8% for the quarter, off slightly the 5.9% growth pace in the first half of 2025, as the trade war with the U.S. fueled front-loading and export diversion to other countries. The U.S. jacked up tariffs on Chinese goods in April to as high as 145%, before temporarily lowering most of them following an agreement about a month later. A decline in U.S.-bound shipments was offset by growth in other regions, such as Southeast Asia - which China uses as a transshipment hub - and Europe, where dumping of Chinese EVs is crushing the local automotive industry.

The economy "withstood pressures and rose to challenges, with overall stable and improving economic performance," the NBS said in a statement as it goalseeked the random number which has zero bearing to what is going on in the economy. In fact, the one number that does matter, China power output, rose just 0.8% YoY for the Jan-Jun period (to 4537.1b kwh), and is a much more accurate reflection of China's actual growth. 

Wednesday's GDP figure reveals that "growth in the world's second-largest economy remains resilient, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's volatile tariff policy on China" according to the Nikkei. After reaching near embargo-level rates, US tariffs on Chinese imports were lowered to 55% following a temporary truce reached in May, prompting a new flood of exports seeking to frontrun the eventual increase of tariffs.

The data also underscores a perennial imbalance in China's economy that could face further headwinds in the second half of the year: sluggish domestic demand and an excess supply of goods. As noted before, the country remains stuck in its longest streak of deflation in decades, weighing on corporate profits and wage growth. Consumption continued to lag behind other growth drivers, as falling home prices and a weak job market dampen consumer spending.

"The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging," said Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics. "With exports set to slow and the tailwind from fiscal support on course to fade, growth is likely to slow further during the second half of this year."

Elsewhere in the data dump, Industrial output growth jumped to 6.8% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from May's 5.8%, suggesting manufacturers have been rushing to fulfill orders amid May's trade truce with Washington. 

Growth in retail sales, a proxy for consumption, slowed sharply to 4.8% in June year-on-year, from 6.4% in May. The surveyed urban jobless rate stood at 5% in June, unchanged from May, though unemployment is expected to worsen as a record 12.2 million college graduates hit the labor market this summer. 

Beijing has made reviving consumption a central economic objective for the year, though it has so far refrained from offering cash handouts to households. Instead, China focused on expanding the budget and widened the range of subsidized goods to include smartphones and tablets. The central government earmarked 300 billion yuan ($41.8 billion) to fund subsidy program for consumer goods this year. While some cities suspended the program in recent months after funds ran out, the government has pledged to roll out a new round of subsidies this month.

Meanwhile, a prolonged property market slowdown continues to weigh on consumer confidence, as housing accounts for around 70% of Chinese household wealth. New home prices in 70 key cities in June fell 0.3% from May, the biggest monthly drop in eight months, according to data provider Wind Information. Falling asset prices have dampened consumers' appetite for big-ticket items, intensifying price wars in industries ranging from electric vehicles to food.

Sheng Laiyun, NBS deputy director, acknowledged that existing policies are insufficient to stem falling home sales and prices. "More efforts are needed to stabilize and transform the sector," Sheng told reporters on Monday.

One major challenge facing Beijing is how to end persistent deflation. In recent weeks, authorities have urged industries, including solar panels and electric vehicles, to refrain from price wars that have pushed many companies into the red, though analysts question how effective such top-down approach will be.

The producer price index, which measures wholesale prices at factory gates, recorded its steepest drop in almost two years in June. The government has recently stepped up its criticism of excessive competition, signaling greater desire to address oversupply issues. But "local officials may balk at the economic cost of implementing them unless they are also accompanied by more substantial demand-side stimulus," Capital Economics wrote in a report last week.

Trade relations with the U.S. remain uncertain as Beijing is set to renegotiate terms with Washington as the Aug. 12 deadline on the trade war truce approaches. Tensions have also escalated with the European Union, where officials have criticized China's new export controls on rare-earth minerals. Leaders from the bloc are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts later this month.

Some advisers to Chinese policymakers are urging more proactive measures to absorb the impact of volatile U.S. tariff policy. Huang Yiping, a member of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy committee, said earlier this month that China should consider launching an additional fiscal stimulus of up to 1.5 trillion yuan to offset the tariff shock.

Still, many analysts believe the robust (if completely fake) GDP figures reported so far suggest policymakers are in no rush to unveil large-scale stimulus measures to meet the full-year growth target of around 5%. Or at least the fake numbers give Beijing the buffer zone to ignore the ongoing economic slowdown until it's too late. 

"A major stimulus is unlikely if exports remain steady, because Beijing will do just enough to hit its growth target," said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.

"In short, what Beijing will do largely depends on the economic policies and tariff rates set in Washington."

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 06:50

8 Chinese Nationals On Student Visas Charged In Computer 'Pop-Up' Scam Targeting Elders

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Eight Chinese nationals on student visas in the United States have been indicted for their alleged role in a scam targeting elderly Americans through fraudulent computer pop-ups, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Pennsylvania announced on July 11.

The defendants, who came to the United States to attend college, are accused of defrauding more than 50 victims across 19 states out of more than $10 million. They were indicted by a federal grand jury in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, for conspiracy to commit wire fraud.

“These indictments highlight the relentless efforts of Homeland Security Investigations [HSI] to safeguard our elderly population from complex fraud operations,” Edward V. Owens, HSI Philadelphia special agent in charge, said in a statement.

“Schemes like these cause significant emotional and financial harm to elderly victims across the country. HSI, in partnership with the FBI, remains steadfast in our commitment to securing justice for the victims and ensuring that those responsible are held fully accountable.”

The defendants are Yankun Jiang, 24, and Hanlin Yang, 24, both of State College, Pennsylvania; Chenhao Chen, 25, Xiaoqing Tu, 24, and Dongjie Lu, 35, all three of California; Lei Bao, 22, of New York; Kuo Zhang, 31, of New Jersey; and Jiacheng Zhang, 25, of Florida.

According to the second superseding indictment, the defendants are accused of running the computer pop-up scam from August 2023 to February 2024. The pop-ups were disguised as coming from Microsoft, falsely warning victims that their computers had been hacked and displaying a phone number to call for help.

When victims called the number, they were allegedly fed various lies, for example, that their bank accounts were “not secure” and that they would need to withdraw from their savings, according to the court document.

To conceal their crimes, the defendants allegedly instructed the victims not to tell anyone what they had been told, and to tell banks that the large cash withdrawals were for purposes such as “home remodeling,” the court document states.

The defendants or “couriers” who were part of the conspiracy allegedly traveled to the victims’ homes to collect the money while impersonating a “federal agent” or “federal marshal,” according to the court document.

If convicted, each defendant faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and a fine.

Jiacheng Zhang and his lawyer could not be reached for comment.

Chen’s lawyer declined to comment when contacted by The Epoch Times.

The Epoch Times contacted the remaining six defendants’ lawyers for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The FBI released tips to help the public protect themselves from tech support and government impersonation scams in January 2024. The agency asks people not to click on unsolicited pop-ups on their computers or contact unknown telephone numbers provided in pop-ups, texts, or emails.

The Federal Trade Commission warns on its website that scammers might disguise pop-up windows as error messages from computers’ operating systems or antivirus software, as well as logos from trusted companies or websites.

“Real security warnings and messages will never ask you to call a phone number,” the Federal Trade Commission states.

In April, the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office in Florida issued a warning regarding a scam targeting locals through fake computer pop-ups disguised as antivirus company McAfee’s security alerts, saying one victim had already lost more than $530,000.

The sheriff’s office asked the public to always use up-to-date security software and to never allow remote access to their computers in response to unexpected pop-ups.

In recent months, there have been other cases involving Chinese nationals in connection with scams.

In April, a federal grand jury in California indicted a Chinese citizen, who was a former resident of San Jose, California, for alleged involvement in a government impersonation scam. According to prosecutors, an elderly victim, who was allegedly tricked into believing that there was a federal warrant for her, lost more than $780,000 to the scam.

In May, a Chinese citizen was accused of impersonating a U.S. marshal in an attempt to con a New York state resident out of $98,000.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 06:30

Syria Signs $800M Tartous Port Deal With Dubai-Based Company

Via The Cradle

Syria has signed an $800-million agreement with Dubai-based DP World to redevelop the Tartous Port, state media reported on Sunday. The deal was signed in Damascus in the presence of self-appointed Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa.

The agreement grants DP World a 30-year term to operate and upgrade Tartous, one of Syria’s most strategic coastal hubs. Syrian officials say the deal is part of a wider push to modernize the country’s logistics infrastructure.

Source: Arabian Business

"This strategic move will bolster our port operations and logistics services," an unnamed Syrian official told SANA. Qutaiba Badawi, chairman of the General Authority for Land and Sea Ports, called the deal "a new phase of field and maritime work in Syria."

DP World chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said the agreement would position Tartous as a global transport node.  "Syria possesses valuable assets," he said, adding, "The port of Tartous will be one of the best in the world, particularly in transport and cargo handling services."

According to Badawi, the contract was the result of months of negotiations and was structured to be "tight, fair and transparent."

The agreement includes infrastructure and technological upgrades to expand Tartous’s cargo capacity and support the recovery of Syria’s industrial and commercial sectors.

The Tartous contract follows a series of high-value agreements signed in recent months, including a 30-year deal with France’s CMA CGM to operate Latakia Port and a $7-billion energy contract with Qatari, Turkish, and US firms to restore the power grid.

The US lifted most of its sanctions on Syria last month, citing what it called "positive actions" by Sharaa’s administration.

US President Donald Trump has revoked the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation for the Nusra Front, later known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), according to a State Department memo filed on 7 July.

In December 2024, HTS – under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa (who went by the name Abu Mohammad al-Julani when he was still an ISIS chief) – successfully ousted former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and took power in Damascus. 

Source: BBC

On June 7, Syria was reinstated to the SWIFT banking system, as Damascus began implementing financial reforms under Central Bank Governor Abdul Qader al-Husriya.

The Tartous Port deal comes seven months after HTS declared the ousting of the Assad government following its capture of Damascus and the flight of former president Bashar al-Assad.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 05:00

How The Epstein Debacle Has Overshadowed Historic Success At The DOJ

Authored by Julie Kelly via 'Declassified',

As I reported on X on Sunday, it appears Attorney General Pamela Bondi and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino have agreed to a truce. Bongino was prepared to imminently resign over Bondi’s botched handling of the Jeffrey Epstein matter; President Trump told reporters on Sunday he had spoken with Bongino and indicated his longtime friend was “in good shape” without any plans to depart soon.

If true, the development represents good news since the clash of wills pitted the White House against some of the president’s most loyal influencers, prompting one of the biggest political crises in the administration to date. Trump appears to have successfully calmed the waters both behind the scenes and online.

Unfortunately, not only did the Epstein matter create deep division in MAGAland, fixation on the topic sucked the oxygen out of the media sphere related to significant achievements within the Department of Justice. Bondi and her team continue to clean house at the systemically corrupt department as longtime employees are either fired or leave voluntarily amid “differences” with the president’s policies. The most recent purge includes members of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team, J6 prosecutors, and the spokeswoman at the most powerful U.S. Attorney’s office in the country.

But rather than take their well-deserved firings on the chin like grown ups, self-proclaimed “victims” of the personnel wrecking ball emote on social media or to slavish reporters proving that DOJ employees are a partisan, sanctimonious, and downright annoying bunch of humans.

Poor Poor Pitiful Me, Part 1,306

For example, Bondi last week fired Joseph Tirrell, head of the DOJ’s ethics office. (LOL).

Tirrell, according to Bloomberg News, is “a career attorney who’d spent nearly 20 years at the department,” meaning Bondi was stuck with him until the DOJ could find a reason to terminate. No details are available as to why Tirrell finally got the boot but he reportedly did, among other things, oversee Special Counsel Jack Smith’s operation.

Last February, Tirrell reviewed Smith’s last disclosure report, which revealed the special counsel had received $140,000 in pro bono legal advice after the 2024 election. (The president promised to investigate Smith, who handed down two criminal federal indictments against Trump in 2023.)

It’s unclear whether Tirrell approved that free legal work, flagged any excessive expenditures—the special counsel’s office spent roughly $50 million in a little over a year—or identified any conflict of interests within the office. But instead of simply updating his resume, Tirrell followed in the light-in-the-loafers footsteps of his former colleagues by penning a tale of woe on social media.

Patricia Hartman, the longtime spokeswoman at the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s office, went straight to CBS News last week to bitch about her invitation to the unemployment line.

Hartman, no doubt at the direction of Biden appointee Matthew Graves, spent four years churning out daily press releases to boast about the Biden DOJ’s success in the politically-motivated January 6 investigation. Hartman even issued press releases on the misdemeanor cases against Trump confidants Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro; U.S attorney’s offices rarely pursue federal misdemeanors and certainly never brag about it in press releases if they do.

Nonetheless, Hartman portrayed herself as the victim of a political operation rather than the devoted mouthpiece of one:

Hartman is the only J6 propagandist to hit the streets. Following an immediate expulsion of J6 and Jack Smith prosecutors back in late January, the DOJ is back to the chopping block in both matters. Bondi just fired at least 20 lawyers and staffers assigned to Smith’s team bringing the total number of scalps to 37. (Smith resigned on January 10.) At least three prosecutors who handled high-profile J6 cases also got the ax this month with more to come, according to my own sources.

Voluntary Self Deportation

Many DOJ employees are leaving voluntarily rather than anxiously refresh their email inbox for a message with the subject line, “Notice of Removal From Federal Service.” Dozens of employees working at the DOJ unit responsible for defending the administration against a nonstop deluge of lawsuits have resigned, according to a Reuters analysis this month. Prosecutors complained of a heavy workload--boo hoo!--and ideological differences with the new boss.

"Many of these people came to work at Federal Programs to defend aspects of our constitutional system. How could they participate in the project of tearing it down?” one lawyer who recently quit told Reuters.

A similar exodus is underway at the DOJ’s civil rights division where nearly 70 percent of the division’s attorneys have headed for the exits rather than work for Harmeet Dhillon, the president’s pick to run the office. Apparently the totally nonpolitical lawyers object to doing things like keeping boys out of girls’ sports, protecting children from surgical mutilation, and combating religious bias—just a few of Dhillon’s stated objectives.

All of this comes on top of months of success in identifying and firing known partisans at both the DOJ and FBI, an historic purge with no signs of stopping. The moves are “creating rampant speculation and fear within the workforce over who might be terminated next,” former staffers told the Washington Post.

Which should be sweet music to the collective ears of Trump supporters. Unfortunately, this good news is being silenced by a cacophony of discord and demands in the Epstein case—something the enemies of MAGA are enjoying all too much.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 23:25

Orange Juice Futures Squeeze On Trump's Brazil Tariff Threat 

President Trump fired off a flurry of trade warning letters last week to countries including South Korea, Brazil, Europe, Mexico, and Canada. In one letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, Trump announced the potential for a new 50% tariff on imports from Brazil. The move has since sparked fears of supply disruptions and sent orange juice futures in New York soaring to a four-month high. 

The most active contract jumped 8.655% to $3.1385 a pound on Monday, the highest since early March. Orange juice futures have been rallying since Trump’s trade warning letter to the South American country last week, stoking fears of renewed supply disruptions. Prices previously surged as high as $5 a pound in late 2024, as U.S. orange juice production fell to decade lows. Prices then crashed earlier this year.

OJ is on track for the largest monthly gain since January 1981. 

The threat of disrupted OJ supplies comes as the U.S. has ramped up imports from Brazil in recent years, with Florida production in disarray due to greening disease and hurricanes that have devastated large swaths of groves, according to Craig Elliott, a market analyst at Expana, as cited by Bloomberg. He noted that while the full impact of the proposed tariff remains uncertain, the volume of trade at risk is substantial and could further undermine Brazil’s competitiveness.

Tariffs risk upending Brazil–U.S. ag trade across a wide range of goods (much more than just OJ) — from coffee and red meat to poultry, pork, and more. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 23:00

"The Numbers Don't Lie": Most California Voters Say Special Interests Have Too Much Influence On Policy: Poll

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies published on July 10 found that a majority of Californians believe special interest groups wield too much influence over policymaking in Sacramento.

A voter drops off a ballot at an official ballot drop box on the final day of early voting ahead of Election Day at City Hall in San Francisco on Nov. 4, 2024. Loren Elliott/Getty Images

More than 6,000 respondents were asked whether or not “special interest money has too much influence in Sacramento politics and decisionmaking.”

Fifty-five percent of respondents strongly agreed, and 20 percent somewhat agreed. Only 2 percent disagreed.

Republicans and Democrats were largely united on the issue.

The poll found that 73 percent of Democrats and 81 percent of Republicans agreed with the statement. Among those with no party preference, 75 percent agreed.

The sentiment was shared across regional, gender, age, education, income, and racial groups, with at least 59 percent of respondents in each group agreeing with the statement. The poll also found that 87 percent of regular voters strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement.

“The numbers don’t lie. Californians overwhelmingly recognize that big money wields far too much power over our elected officials,” said Russia Chavis Cardenas, deputy director of nonprofit organization California Common Cause.

“People from every political party, every race, and every walk of life are united behind one urgent demand. They want Sacramento to break the grip of big money on our democracy.”

When asked whether they trust various representatives to “act in the best interests of the California public,” 14 percent of voters said they have “a lot” of trust in Gov. Gavin Newsom. Another 28 percent said they trust him “somewhat.”

Voters trust the state Legislature about as much: 11 percent said they trust it a lot, and 33 percent said they trust it somewhat.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in Los Angeles on Sept. 25, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Voters have even less trust in “tech companies and their leaders,” with just 4 percent saying they have a lot of trust that those leaders will act in the best interests of California residents. The poll found 58 percent have no trust “at all” in tech leaders. Trust in business leaders in general was only slightly higher: 4 percent said they trust them, while 46 percent said they do not trust them “at all.”

“It’s no surprise that Californians have little trust in tech companies and their leadership,” said Leora Gershenzon, policy director of the California Initiative for Technology and Democracy.

“All too often, they have made decisions that further screentime addiction, mental health challenges in children and teens, and political deepfakes that undermine elections, all to maximize profit.”

Voters trust labor unions more, with 19 percent saying they trust them a lot and 32 percent saying they trust them somewhat.

Community-based nonprofit organizations score higher: 27 percent trust them a lot, and another 35 percent trust them somewhat.

“With so much special interest money in California elections, everyday Californians question the motives of our elected leaders. But they know community-based organizations will always have their back,” said Camila Chavez, executive director of nonprofit organization Dolores Huerta Foundation.

Regarding the justice system, 20 percent of California voters said they have a lot of trust in the courts, and 37 percent said they trust them somewhat.

Eleven percent of voters said they trust public officials a lot, and 39 percent said they trust them somewhat.

‘Democracy Under Attack’

A majority of Californians, 64 percent, across gender, age, education, regional, income, and racial groups, view American democracy as “under attack.”

Fewer than 15 percent of respondents from each group said American democracy is in “no danger.”

Seventy percent of respondents aged 65 and older believe American democracy is under attack, along with 69 percent of white people, and 74 percent of black respondents. Only 1 percent of black respondents view American democracy as being in no danger.

Democrats and Republicans are split on the issue, with 81 percent of Democrats seeing American democracy as under attack, while only 38 percent of Republicans agree. A total of 39 percent of Republicans view American democracy as being tested, and 24 percent of Republicans view American democracy as in no danger.

Sixty-one percent of those with “No Party Preference” believe that American democracy is under attack. An estimated 32 percent view it as being tested. Just 8 percent of those with no party preference, and 3 percent of Democrats, see American democracy as being in no danger.

“It is hard to imagine that a majority of voters would have seen U.S. democracy as under severe threat,” said Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies. “It is now something of a new ‘normal,’ itself a worrisome sign about how things have shifted.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 22:35

Trump Wants Gaza Deal 'Straightened Out' Within The Next Week

President Trump on Sunday said he hopes a ceasefire deal in Gaza can be finalized within this week, in comments made to reporters before boarding a flight to attend yesterday's FIFA Club World Cup Final.

When asked about the ongoing crisis in Gaza, he responded, "We’re talking, and hopefully we’ll get that straightened out over the next week. Let’s see what happens."

While there had been anticipation in Israel for a deal announcement during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington DC last week, recent days have seen the typical non-committal, ambiguous statements out of both Washington and Tel Aviv. The war looks to have no solutions, given the stated goals of Israel and the United States.

Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism Sunday, saying he was "hopeful" an agreement could be reached. 

But as it stands the Netanyahu government is still insisting on the full disarming of Hamas, while Hamas for its part wants full withdrawal of the Israeli military.

Neither is expected to happen, and at this point it looks to be a fight to the death - with Israeli hostages still in limbo (and many feared dead) - and thousands of Palestinian civilians getting slaughtered each week.

Currently, a plan floated by some Israeli officials for a designated 'humanitarian city' inside a sector of Gaza has continued to be met with immense pushback. Critics call it in effect a "concentration camp" - while many within Israel say it is logistically impossible.

The plan was announced by Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz last week:

Israeli affairs analyst, Dan Perry, says the plan to build a “humanitarian city” would involve “by all indications a very long process” to build and maintain, while the country does not have the “funds or the energy or the desire” to do so.

“I think this has to be viewed in the context of the current negotiations where the very reporting of such a plan might be an effort to put pressure on Hamas to show more flexibility,” Perry told Al Jazeera.

“I agree with [opposition leader Yair] Lapid that it is a security, political and logistical nightmare. I would add that it’s ethically inadmissible,” he added.

And so it is unlikely to get off the ground. In the meantime aid delivery continues to also be mired in controversy and scandal, as American military contractors have reportedly fired on hungry Palestinians.

Reports say the IDF troops have shot dead scores of Palestinians seeking the aid, and UN and international rights groups have slammed the unsafe aid station set-ups.

'At least 798 killed' at Gaza aid points - as medical charity warns acute malnutrition at all-time high | World News | Sky News https://t.co/PmBpgdMd0V

— William Dalrymple (@DalrympleWill) July 12, 2025

Al Jazeera provides some Monday updates on the situation as follows:

• At least 47 people killed across Gaza today, including Palestinians gathered near aid centre.
• Israeli forces continue bombarding Gaza a day after killing 95 Palestinians across the Strip.
• Criticisms of Israel’s plan to set up an internment camp in Gaza are growing, with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid saying it would amount to a “concentration camp” if Palestinians there are not allowed to leave.
• Israel’s war on Gaza has killed at least 58,026 people and wounded 138,520, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. An estimated 1,139 people were killed in Israel during the October 7, 2023, attacks, and more than 200 were taken captive.

And below are more regional and global headlines via Newsquawk.

* * *

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Tehran will respond to the return of UN sanctions after snapback mechanism. No date or location for US/Iran nuclear talks. Will not restart US talks unless we are certain they will work.
• Israeli official said talks in Doha are ongoing with Hamas for a ceasefire and hostage deal but noted Hamas is sticking to positions that do not allow mediators to advance an agreement.
• US envoy to the Middle East Witkoff said he is hopeful on Gaza ceasefire negotiations and was said to meet senior Qataris in New Jersey on Sunday.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they are carefully assessing options for talks with the US.

Ukraine

• US President Trump is considering greenlighting new funding for Ukraine to send a message to Russia, according to CBS. It was separately reported that President Trump is to announce an "aggressive" Ukraine weapons plan on Monday to arm Ukraine which is expected to include offensive weapons, according to Axios.
• EU envoys are nearing an agreement on lower Russian oil price cap, according to Reuters.
• Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency accused Russia’s FSB of being behind the murder of an SBU Colonel in Kyiv last week and said agents responsible for the murder were killed during an operation to apprehend them.
• IAEA team at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant reported hearing hundreds of rounds of small arms fire on Saturday night.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Myrne and Mykolaivka in eastern Ukraine.
• North Korean leader Kim reaffirmed unconditional support for Moscow’s actions in the Ukraine war during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, while North Korea and Russia pledged cooperation to safeguard each other’s territorial integrity. Furthermore, Russia expressed firm opposition to any attempt to undermine North Korea’s national security and sovereignty, while it was also stated that Moscow wants to further strengthen the strategic partnership.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky's Chief of staff says US Special Envoy Kellogg has arrived in Kyiv to discuss security and sanctions against Russia.
• Russian President Putin's envoy Dmitriyev says Russia-US dialogue will continue.
• Russia's Kremlin says it is obvious Ukraine is not in a hurry on peace negotiations, "we await timing of third round of talks".

Other

• North Korea warned it stands ready to take military action against threats from the US, Japan and South Korea following recent joint air drills involving a strategic US bomber, according to KCNA.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 22:10

ICE Detains 361 Illegal Immigrants, Finds 14 Minors In Operation At California Marijuana Farms

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Administration officials on July 13 defended President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement operations, including one on a California marijuana farm last week that a worker advocacy group alleges led to a man’s death.

California National Guard troops face off with protesters during a federal immigration operation at Glass House Farms in Camarillo, Calif., on July 10, 2025. Blake Fagan/AFP

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem told NBC News’s “Meet the Press” on July 13 that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents detained 361 illegal immigrants and encountered 14 unaccompanied minors during a July 10 operation on two marijuana farms in Southern California.

“At the California marijuana facilities, ICE and CBP law enforcement rescued at least 14 migrant children from what looks like exploitation, forced child labor, and potentially human trafficking or smuggling while facing assault and even gunfire,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement.

Among those arrested were “criminals with convictions for rape, serial burglary, hit and run and DUIs,” she added.

Both marijuana sites are operated by and licensed to Glass House Farms, which confirmed the operation and said it was fully complying with the search warrants.

United Farm Workers, a worker advocacy group, alleges that several workers were injured during the operation and reported prematurely Friday that one man died a day after he fell off a 30-foot building that he climbed. The family of Jaime Alanis, 57, later confirmed that he died Saturday.

The worker’s family created a GoFundMe page to raise funds for his family and a burial in Mexico, identifying him as Jaime Alanís.

Elizabeth Strater, national vice president of the United Farm Workers, claimed that there were U.S. citizens arrested during the operations. DHS said Monday that four U.S. citizens “are being criminally processed for assaulting or resisting officers.”

The Department of Homeland Security said its agents weren’t responsible for Alanís’s death. “Although he was not being pursued by law enforcement, this individual climbed up to the roof of a green house and fell 30 feet,” the agency stated.

Agents immediately ordered a medical evacuation, according to the department.

When asked about the death during an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union” on July 13, border czar Tom Homan said: “It’s sad. It’s unfortunate.

“He wasn’t in ICE custody, and ICE did not have hands on this person.

“But it’s always unfortunate when there’s deaths. No one wants to see people die.”

Homan said the agents were doing their job serving criminal search warrants.

“I see the media saying it was an ICE raid,” he said. “No, they were serving criminal search warrants as part of a criminal investigation involved with child trafficking, child labor. I think it was a total of 11 children that were found on that farm, and now they’re being interviewed.”

Response to Judge Ruling

On July 11, a federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from carrying out immigration enforcement operations and arrests in the Central District of California without probable cause.

The judge ordered the Department of Homeland Security to stop detaining people based on their race, spoken language or accent, occupation, or presence in specific locations such as bus stops.

Noem told NBC Sunday that the administration would “absolutely” comply with the court order, but denied that the Trump administration is using racial profiling when carrying out immigration enforcement search warrants.

“What we have always done is built a case and done investigative work, and who we go after and who we target. And so this judge is ridiculous in the fact that he put forward a decision like this,” Noem said.

She said the administration will appeal the ruling and that “we will win it.”

“Because over and over again, when our ICE officers are out there getting the worst of the worst off of our streets, they’re using the investigative backgrounds and information that they have from either criminal records or what they have for charges or individuals who are breaking our federal laws that need to be brought to justice,” Noem said.

On July 13, Homan told CNN that physical characteristics are one of many factors that agents could use to establish reasonable suspicion that a potential target lacks legal immigration status, and thus give probable cause to stop and detain them.

He emphasized that it can’t be the sole reason, and suggested that features such as having a visible MS-13 tattoo would be one example.

“I want to be clear about that again, because my words are taken out of context. Physical description cannot be the sole reason to detain and question somebody. That can’t be the sole reason to raise reasonable suspicion,” Homan said.

“It’s a myriad of factors, and I could stay here for the next half hour and give you all the factors.”

Aldgra Fredly, T.J. Muscaro, and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 21:45

Zuckerberg "Focused" On Building Mega Gigawatt-Size Data Centers

Meta shares rose during the U.S. morning cash session after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced on Threads that the company is building several massive data centers to support its superintelligence ambitions. 

"For our superintelligence effort, I'm focused on building the most elite and talent-dense team in the industry. We're also going to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to build superintelligence. We have the capital from our business to do this," Zuckerberg wrote in a post.

He continued, "We're actually building several multi-GW clusters. We're calling the first one Prometheus and it's coming online in '26. We're also building Hyperion, which will be able to scale up to 5GW over several years. We're building multiple more titan clusters as well. Just one of these covers a significant part of the footprint of Manhattan." 

Zuckerberg cited a recent report from tech blog SemiAnalysis that noted Meta was aggressively advancing toward superintelligence amid a series of setbacks in model performance, such as losing its lead in open-weight models to competitors like China's DeepSeek.

Here's more from SemiAnalysis...

Meta's shocking purchase of 49% of Scale AI at a ~$30B valuation shows that money is of no concern for the $100B annual cashflow ad machine. Despite seemingly unlimited resources, Meta has been falling behind foundation labs in model performance.

The real wake-up call came when Meta lost its lead in open-weight models to DeepSeek. That stirred the sleeping giant. Now in full Founder Mode, Mark Zuckerberg is personally leading Meta's charge, identifying Meta's two core shortcomings: Talent and Compute. As one of the last founders still running a tech behemoth, Mark doesn't need SemiAnalysis to tell him to slow down stock buybacks to fund the future!

Meta's race for compute:

• Prometheus cluster in Ohio: Features an "all-of-the-above" approach (self-build and leasing) with on-site natural gas plants (e.g., 200MW units from Solar Turbines, Siemens Energy, and CAT).

• Hyperion cluster in Louisiana: Planned as the world's largest campus by 2027, with over 1.5GW of IT power in phase 1.

And the race for talent and strategy 

• Recruiting Executives: Meta has aggressively onboarded leaders such as Nat Friedman (ex‑GitHub), Alexandr Wang (Scale AI CEO), and Daniel Gross. The pitch: unmatched compute budgets, open-source impact, and access to >2 billion users. Comp packages can reach $200–300 million for four years.

• Scale AI Tie‑in: Meta's $15–30 billion investment in—and 49% stake acquired from—Scale AI brings in essential data-labeling and evaluation expertise (SEAL lab) to strengthen LLM data pipelines

• M&A Activities: While Meta reportedly approached startups like Thinking Machines and SSI, only Scale AI joined the fold—focused on closing data quality gaps exposed by Llama 4's struggles

In markets, Meta's shares rose just over $1 to $725.50 on the news. The stock is up 24% year-to-date, trading in record-high territory amid the broader trend of the race for AI compute and talent.

All of this capital expenditure (capex) by Big Tech firms...

...has many on Wall Street increasingly asking whether this unprecedented AI spending surge will translate into sustainable new revenue streams. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 20:55

Supreme Court Allows Trump To Fire Education Department Employees

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court on July 14 allowed President Donald Trump to move forward with dismantling the Department of Education by firing almost 1,400 employees.

 In a brief unsigned ruling, the justices blocked the order issued in May by U.S. District Judge Myong Joun, who had concluded that the Trump administration’s “true intention is to effectively dismantle the Department” even though in his view it lacked the power to do so.

The court did not explain its decision.

Three justices - Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson - dissented from the ruling.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissented, in a 19-page opinion that was joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Sotomayor called the court’s decision “indefensible,” writing that it “hands the Executive the power to repeal statutes by firing all those necessary to carry them out."

"The majority,” she said, “is either willfully blind to the implications of its ruling or naïve, but either way the threat to our Constitution’s separation of powers is grave.”

In her dissent, Sotomayor emphasized that, until this year, “Presidents have recognized they lack the unilateral authority to eradicate a Department that Congress has tasked with fulfilling statutory duties.”

But President Donald Trump, she said, “has made clear that he intends to close the Department without Congress’s involvement.”

In its briefs at the Supreme Court, Sotomayor continued, “the Government does not defend the lawfulness of its actions” but instead “presents a grab bag of jurisdictional and remedial arguments to support its bid for emergency relief” – none of which, she said, “justifies this Court’s intervention.”

A federal district court had issued an injunction blocking the process, directing the government to rehire some of the departmental employees who had been laid off.

Trump campaigned on shuttering the department.

On March 20, he signed Executive Order 14242, pledging to close the agency, which he said “has entrenched the education bureaucracy and sought to convince America that Federal control over education is beneficial.”

The department “does not educate anyone” and “maintains a public relations office that includes over 80 staffers at a cost of more than $10 million per year,” the executive order states.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 20:05

White House Unveils Sweeping MAHA Changes In Nation's Food Supply Chain 

Months after President Trump released a report titled "The MAHA Report: Make Our Children Healthy Again," outlining America's childhood chronic disease crisis and its potential contributing causes, the White House has now released a detailed list of changes within the processed food industrial complex — just ahead of a promised September revelation by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has pledged to identify the root cause of the autism epidemic.

"President Donald J. Trump took office promising to confront the chronic health crisis plaguing Americans — and six months later, he is delivering on that promise by removing harmful chemicals from our food supply," the White House wrote in a statement.

The White House noted that "dozens of ice cream companies — representing more than 90% of the ice cream volume sold in the U.S. — have pledged to eliminate the use of certified artificial colors in their ice cream and frozen dairy products." 

What's becoming undeniable is that this nation's food supply was hijacked by globalist mega-corporations pumping it full of toxic ingredients. If that wasn't the case, why are they now scrambling to remove synthetic dyes and other harmful chemicals?

Here's the growing list of companies that have taken steps to improve their food supply chain:

• Steak & Shake moved to 100% all-natural beef tallow and replaced its "buttery blend," which contained seed oils, with 100% Grade A Wisconsin butter.

• McCormick announced it will drop certain food dyes from its products.

• PepsiCo announced it will remove artificial ingredients from popular food items — including Lay's and Tostitos chips — by the end of the year.

• In-N-Out announced it will remove synthetic food dyes and artificial flavors from its menu items, and also transitioned to 100% beef tallow.

• Tyson Foods eliminated synthetic dyes in its food products.

• Mars removed titanium dioxide from its Skittles product.

• Sam's Club committed to removing 40 harmful ingredients — including artificial colors, additives, dyes, and high-fructose corn syrup — from its private-label products.

• Kraft-Heinz announced it will remove artificial dyes from its U.S. products.

• General Mills announced it will remove artificial dyes from its U.S. cereals and all foods served in K-12 schools.

• Nestlé announced it will remove all petroleum-based food dyes from its food and beverage products.

• Conagra Foods announced it will remove certain color additives from its frozen products, no longer offer products with artificial dyes in K-12 schools, and stop using artificial dyes in the manufacturing of its products.

• JM Smucker announced it will remove synthetic colors from its consumer food products.

• Hershey announced it will remove synthetic dyes from its snacks.

• Consumer Brands announced it will urge its members to remove artificial colors in food and beverage products served in schools.

Americans must demand more from these mega food companies — say no to seed oils and other toxic chemicals in the food supply chain. The best way to break free from the industrial food complex is to go local: find a farmer or rancher, plant a garden, raise chickens. Yes, it takes work — but it not only secures your own food supply, it also helps you understand exactly where your food comes from.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 19:40

Cuomo "In It To Win It", Staying In NYC Mayoral Race As Independent

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

Former Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced on July 14 that he will remain in the New York City mayor’s race, weeks after losing the Democratic primary.

“To the 440,000 New Yorkers who voted for me, a sincere thank you,” Cuomo said in a video statement posted on social media platform X.

“Thank you for believing in me and my agenda and in my experience. And I am truly sorry that I let you down.”

Cuomo lost the Democratic nomination last month to Zohran Mamdani, a state assemblyman. Mamdani officially became the Democratic nominee on July 1, winning 56 percent of the vote after three rounds of ranked-choice tabulation, according to certified results published by the city’s Board of Elections. Cuomo received 44 percent.

The former governor had conceded on election night, but not until the video announcement did he confirm that he would remain in the race.

“The fight to save our city isn’t over,” Cuomo added. “Only 13 percent of New Yorkers voted in the June primary. The general election is in November, and I am in it to win it.”

In the video, Cuomo presented his campaign as a contrast to Mamdani, accusing him of offering “slick slogans, but no real solutions.” Cuomo promised to campaign in person across the five boroughs. “For the next few months it’s my responsibility to earn your vote,” he told New Yorkers.

“Every day, I’m gonna be hitting the streets, meeting you where you are—to hear the good and the bad, problems and solutions,” he said.

Cuomo will face both Mamdani and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams in the general election. Adams, who won the 2021 race as the Democratic nominee, opted to skip the primary and is running for reelection as an independent.

Cuomo’s decision sets up a rare three-way contest and highlights a broader split within the Democratic Party between more moderate Democrats and the left wing of the party. Mamdani’s surprise win tested calls for moderation from national Democratic leaders following former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 loss to Donald Trump.

Cuomo, who resigned from the governorship in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations, entered the mayoral race with support from prominent Democratic figures including former President Bill Clinton, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, and Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.).

Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, ran on a platform focused on cost-of-living issues, including rent freezes and fare-free public transit.

Mamdani’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Shortly after Cuomo’s video was posted, Mamdani replied to the post on X with a link to donate to his own campaign.

Also running as an independent is Jim Walden, a lawyer and first-time political candidate.

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee for mayor who lost to Adams in 2021, has called Mamdani “too extreme for a city already on edge” in a post on X. Sliwa has an uphill battle fighting for votes in the heavily Democratic leaning city, where he received 302,680 votes to Adams’s 753,801 in the last election.

The general election will be held on Nov. 4.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 19:15

Leaked Messages Reveal Andreessen's Fury: 'Universities Declared War On 70% Of The Country'

Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen warned that universities engaging in discriminatory practices against students and faculty will face significant consequences, according to leaked screenshots obtained by the Washington Post.

In the private group chat with AI scientists and Trump administration officials, Andreessen stated that universities “declared war on 70% of the country and now they’re going to pay the price.” He criticized DEI and immigration policies, describing them as “two forms of discrimination” that are “politically lethal.”

(Washington Post illustration; Obtained by The Post)

Andreessen further claimed that Stanford University and MIT are operating as “mainly political lobbying operations fighting American innovation.”

The billionaire tech investor also addressed Stanford’s decision to remove his wife, Laura Arrillaga-Andreessen, as chair of its Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society, noting it was done “without a second thought, a decision that will cost them something like $5 billion in future donations.”

This isn’t the first time Andreessen has called out what he perceives as a broken university system.

In a recent interview with billionaire venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, Andreessen raised concerns about access to elite education.

“If you’re the parents of a smart kid where I grew up [rural Wisconsin] and you think you’re going to get them into a top university in this country, you’re fooling yourself,” Andreessen said. “What level of untapped talent exists in this country that a combination of DEI and immigration have basically cut out of the loop for the last 50 years?”

Marc Andreessen: if you're the parents of a smart kid where I grew up [rural Wisconsin] and you think you're going to get them into a top university in this country, you're fooling yourself...

What level of untapped talent exists in this country that a combination of DEI and… pic.twitter.com/qEqtUR0SwS

— American Optimist (@AmOptimistShow) July 11, 2025

Andreessen argued that the intersection of DEI policies and high-skilled immigration has “warped” perceptions of who gets access to elite education. “Nobody wants to talk about, but I’ve started to talk about the intersection of DEI and immigration that has really warped our perceptions on high-skilled immigration over the last 50 years,” he said.

Andreessen also pointed to the sharp rise in foreign enrollment at top universities, noting, “You look at the foreign enrollment rates at the top universities, which went from 2 or 3 or 4 percent 50 years ago or whatever to 27% or 30% or 50%.”

"There’s been this massive transformation of who gets admitted through affirmative action, as we now know it, DEI,” the tech billionaire continued. “This goes straight to the political divide in the country. If you’re parents of a kid where I grew up [rural Wisconsin] and you’ve got a smart kid and you think you’re going to get them into, you know, a top university in this country, like you’re fooling yourself.”

Andreessen drove the point home, adding, “There is this really fundamental question which is, what level of untapped talent exists in this country that a combination of DEI and immigration have basically cut out of the loop for the last 50 years? And how long can we have this story to everybody in the Midwest and in the South that says, sorry, because of historical oppression, your kids are shit out of luck.”

Andreessen made headlines last year when he and his business partner, Ben Horowitz, endorsed President Donald Trump’s third campaign for the White House.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 18:50

China-Linked Tech Tycoon Neville Roy Singham's Niece Backs NYC's Next Marxist Mayor

Submitted by Jason Curtis Anderson of One City Rising, 

There's a new political trend sweeping New York City, and it's as cynical as it is surreal. For over a decade, we've seen a parade of political campaigns proudly brandishing their tokenized Jewish support: "Jews for Jamaal," "Jews for Rashida," "Jews for Shahana."

Now, we're treated to the latest iteration: "Jews for Zohran."

The irony? None of these candidates are Jewish. All of them, however, are staunchly anti-Israel. And the newest addition to this cast of characters has a direct tie to one of the world's most prolific spreaders of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda.

A New York Post investigation revealed this week that the "Jews for Zohran" campaign is spearheaded by Alicia Singham Goodwin, a prominent Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organizer and, notably, the niece of Neville Roy Singham. Yes, that Neville Roy Singham—the shadowy billionaire with deep ties to the CCP who has spent hundreds of millions bankrolling anti-American, anti-Israel, and pro-CCP activism across the globe.

 Alicia Singham Goodwin- CURBED

So let me get this straight. The head of "Jews for Zohran" is the niece of Chinese govt allied billionaire Neville Roy Singham. Her mother is not Jewish but rather Sri Lankan/Chinese. The gaslighting they're doing to whitewash Zohran Mamdani's antisemitism is really next level. https://t.co/YslZIIaj0m

— Izengabe (@Izengabe_) July 12, 2025

For those who need a refresher: 2017 was a pivotal year for Neville Roy Singham. First, the U.S.-born tech mogul sold his company ThoughtWorks to Apax Partners, a sovereign wealth fund entangled with nearly $1 billion in Chinese government money via the China Investment Corporation. Next, he married CODEPINK co-founder Jodie Evans, cementing a personal and political alliance that would bankroll global leftist activism. Finally, Singham relocated to Shanghai, where he began operating hand-in-glove with CCP's propaganda apparatus.

The New York Times profiled Singham in August 2023, exposing how his vast web of nonprofits and media outlets has since been weaponized to funnel CCP talking points into American political discourse. From their Shanghai base, Singham and Evans became the Bonnie and Clyde of the progressive activist world—directing over $160 million into Evans' "People's Support Foundation" and another $98.8 million into a constellation of anti-Israel, anti-ICE, and anti-American protest groups. 

They are the same groups that led Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and the House Oversight Committee into launching an investigation into Singham after learning that his organizations played a leading role in anti-ICE riots across California—riots that left over $20 million in damages, torched police vehicles, and racked up more than 650 arrests.

Singham, unsurprisingly, has not responded.

Neville Singham— the billionaire communist with ties to the CCP, who funded the LA riots and used immigration & Mexicans as a Trojan horse for communism— is hiding from our letter requesting testimony. This poses an issue for delivering subpoena.

Therefore, if he decides to… https://t.co/sZtVzfEA9Q

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) July 9, 2025

In India, his media arm Newsclick was raided by authorities after investigations revealed a coordinated effort to destabilize Prime Minister Modi's government. The Indian government accused Newsclick of terror financing, election interference, and money laundering—all bankrolled by Singham. Internal emails unearthed during legal discovery detailed plans to emulate Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood by establishing "partisan popular media centres" and offering community services to radicalize Indian Muslims.

Witnesses testified that Newsclick staff were ordered to incite violence during protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), distribute Chinese-funded cash to demonstrators, and even supply weapons for riots and arson. The result? The 2020 Delhi riots, which left 53 dead, over 200 injured, and entire neighborhoods reduced to ash.

Singham also never responded to India's legal summons. 

Now, Singham's niece is helping to run Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign.

Singham's network operates like a political virus, infecting vulnerable democracies, seeding chaos, and eroding support for America and its allies from within. It has successfully embedded itself in grassroots movements, NGOs, and now electoral campaigns.

The nexus of Neville Roy Singham's global operation and New York's Democratic machine is no laughing matter. The same tactics that fueled violence in Delhi and sowed unrest in California are now knocking on Gracie Mansion's door.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 18:25

Adobe Digital Price Index Torpedoes Democrats' Inflationary Tariff Storm Propaganda 

Ahead of Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) print—which could determine whether rate traders price in a September cut—new data from one of the most comprehensive gauges of digital inflation shows deflation in June, with no indication that tariffs are filtering through just yet. That's a far cry from the inflation apocalypse narrative pushed by leftist corporate media and Michigan sentiment surveys. 

The Adobe Digital Price Index—an Adobe Analytics–powered inflation gauge that tracks online prices, similar to the CPI but focused on digital commerce—printed at -2.09% year-over-year in June. Categories such as apparel (-7.68%), electronics (-2.66% YoY), and groceries (-2.04% YoY) all experienced deflation.

Looking at subcategories within electronics, computer prices fell 10.73% YoY in June. Given that much of the global computer supply chain is based in China, one might have expected prices to surge amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war—but that hasn't materialized (yet). 

Meanwhile, the UMich survey of deranged Democrats... 

• 'Tariff Derangement Sydrome' Remains As UMich Sentiment Surges In Early June

UMich marxists will not be happy: "evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect"-GS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2025

Looking ahead, Goldman analyst Giulio Esposito expects tomorrow's CPI print around .23% month-over-month increase in June core CPI, vs consensus at +.3%, corresponding to a YoY rate of 2.93% (vs 3.% cons).

"Going forward, the team does expect tariffs to provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, expecting monthly core CPI between 0.3% and 0.4% over the next few months," Esposito noted. 

Back to the Adobe data—either demand for electronics is sliding, or vendors are cutting their margins to absorb tariffs. Remember what we said earlier this month about Toyotas and Nissans (read here)... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/14/2025 - 18:00