Nvidia CEO: "I Think We've Achieved AGI"

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined podcaster Lex Fridman for a 2-plus-hour conversation on the future of AI infrastructure, covering everything from chips, racks, and cooling systems to Nvidia's broader strategy for the next computing era.

Jensen spoke about how computers are evolving from retrieval machines into generative AI factories. The discussion also turned to one of the biggest questions in the AI cycle: whether AGI has already arrived.

Near the two-hour mark of the conversation, Fridman asked Jensen about the "AGI timeline" and whether it is still five, ten, fifteen, or twenty years away, especially given the recent widespread use of agentic AI tools like OpenClaw.

Jensen responded, "I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI."

It is worth noting that Jensen has previously stated that the AGI timeline depends on how it is defined.

At the 2023 New York Times DealBook Summit, Jensen defined AGI as software capable of exceeding normal human intelligence at a reasonably competitive level. At the time, he said he expected AGI to arrive within five years.

Fridman's question about the AGI timeline was based on a very narrower interpretation, and Jensen framed it this way: AI does not need to build anything lasting. It does not need to manage a complex business. It just needs to make a billion dollars.

"You said a billion," Jensen told Fridman, "and you didn't say forever."

Jensen said, for example, that all AI needs to do is create a web service or app that goes viral and is used by a few billion people at fifty cents per user.

He pointed to the dot-com era, when some websites were no more sophisticated than what an AI agent can create today.

So under that narrower interpretation, Jensen believes: "I think we've achieved AGI."

*  *  * ARE YOU PREPARED?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 12:30

NASA Head Adds Lunar Base, Nuclear-Powered Mars Rocket To Space Road Map

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman is moving ahead with the agency's ambitious push to return astronauts to the moon, unveiling new plans for a lunar base alongside a nuclear-propelled spacecraft intended to pave the way for a future Mars mission.

At an earlier event, The New York Times reported that Isaacman laid out the agency's three-phase plan: first, expand robotic missions and surface systems; second, build semi-habitable infrastructure for regular astronaut visits; and third, construct permanent infrastructure for a sustained human presence on the moon.

"We are calling today's event Ignition because it represents the start of a transformative journey for NASA," Isaacman told an audience of representatives from aerospace companies, international space agency officials, and Congress.

BREAKING: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announces plans to build a PERMANENT U.S. base on the Moon—the plan rolls out in three phases: rover and tech deployments, semi-habitable infrastructure for astronauts, and ultimately a permanent human presence on the lunar surface.… pic.twitter.com/5wansZv09f

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 24, 2026

Isaacman's top objective is to return astronauts to the moon in a series of missions called Artemis by 2028. At the same time, he outlined plans to launch a nuclear-propelled spacecraft to Mars by the end of 2028.

He said NASA will deploy $20 billion over seven years to ensure America leads the Moon and Mars missions.

"The moon base will not appear overnight," Isaacman said. "We will invest approximately $20 billion over the next seven years and build it through dozens of missions."

The announcement comes just ahead of Artemis II, the mission expected to send astronauts around the moon and back for the first time since 1972.

Isaacman also said Artemis missions would accelerate to twice a year after Artemis V in 2028, and NASA is seeking replacements for Boeing's Space Launch System, or SLS, rocket and Orion capsule. We reported this last week. 

He added that work on the planned Gateway lunar station program has been suspended.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 12:15

China Condemns US Starting 'Vicious Cycle' Of 'Chaos' In Attacking Iran

Chinese Special Envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun has said at a briefing after his ​shuttle-diplomacy trip that included recent stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait that the US-Israeli operation against Iran must immediately cease or else a "vicious cycle" toward destabilizing the region and disrupt global trade would persist.

"Should hostilities continue to escalate and the situation deteriorate further, the entire region will be plunged into chaos. The use of force will only lead to a vicious cycle… the war should not have begun in the first place," Zhai declared.

via AFP

Washington's latest war of choice in the Middle East has been focus of growing condemnation from Beijing, with Zhai having added: "The one who tied the bell must be the one to untie it." Or this is another way of saying whatever the US broke it must quickly fix.

Separately, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated at the start of this week that continued military action risks deepening instability, and reminded Washington that its past wars in the same region "are not far behind us."

It was only days ago that President Trump called on China and Japan to assist in getting the Hormuz Strait back open, but something which especially China has little incentive to do, as its instead content to watch the US get bogged down in a quagmire amid Tehran's unexpected resilience under the bombs.

Iran has meanwhile held a phone call with China's foreign minister, per Bloomberg: "Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday called on all parties in the Iran war to seize every opportunity and window for peace and start peace talks as soon as possible, Xinhua reports. Wang made the appeal in a phone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi."

China has long been a powerful ally of Tehran providing with diplomatic cover, institutional support, military cooperation and an economic lifeline - especially as its major oil buyer; however, China is not expected to go further with any kind of direct military support.

There are claims that it could be, alongside Russia, providing some intelligence support though. If this is the case, there is not much Washington can do about it - also as the White House response to widespread reports of Russian intelligence-sharing has been met with some pretty mild and meager statements out of the White House.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 11:35

It's Not 'Racism', It's Statistics...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A viral video has revealed that CVS is locking up darker makeup shades behind security devices while lighter ones sit open — because stores secure what thieves steal most, and the data backs it up.

A shopper at CVS captured the scene with lighter skin-tone foundations and concealers displayed freely, no locks and no tags, yet the darker shades were all secured behind anti-theft devices.

This isn’t “racism.” It’s basic loss prevention. Retailers don’t waste money locking up products that don’t walk out the door. They follow the numbers.

American is shopping for makeup at CVS when she notices something strange

She films the makeup isle and shows there are no security devices on the lighter skin shades, but if you go into the darker makeup shades they all have security locks

Stores lockup items stolen the most pic.twitter.com/GWxHzbUpL8

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) March 23, 2026

The wider retail theft crisis makes it crystal clear why. The National Retail Federation’s 2025 Impact of Retail Theft and Violence report shows shoplifting incidents jumped another 19 percent from 2023 to 2024 — on top of a staggering 93 percent surge since 2019.

Retailers reported double-digit increases in both shoplifting and merchandise theft heading into 2026, with aggressive thieves becoming the norm. Losses are projected near $48 billion this year alone.

Stores aren’t profiling customers. They’re protecting their shelves from repeat patterns of theft. And those patterns line up with hard crime statistics.

Nationwide arrest data from 2019 — the most comprehensive recent breakdown available — reveals Black Americans accounted for 26.6 percent of shoplifting arrests while making up just 13 percent of the U.S. population.

In major cities the disparity is even sharper. Vera Institute analysis of Los Angeles jail bookings from 2020-2023 found Black individuals dramatically overrepresented in retail theft charges, including organized retail crime. California statewide data shows the same overrepresentation in shoplifting arrests under $950.

The Vera Institute’s data confirms overrepresentation but frames it through a disparity lens, citing national self-report studies suggesting higher lifetime shoplifting prevalence among Whites. However, arrest/booking data itself is concrete evidence of who gets processed. Black individuals are dramatically overrepresented in retail theft bookings in LA and statewide, especially for organized retail theft charges and shoplifting under $950. This is raw booking stats, not adjusted for self-reported behavior or policing bias claims.

The left screams “systemic racism” whenever stores act on reality. But the stores don’t care about skin color — they care about what disappears. Darker shades get locked because the theft data demands it. Just like liquor, electronics, and designer goods.

There are 332 million people in the United States.

9.09% of Americans shoplift. That’s 30,178,800 people in total.

69.4% of shoplifters are white.

30.2% of shoplifters are black.

(Per FBI Crime Data)

This means that there are 20,944,087 white shoplifters in the US and… pic.twitter.com/0z4EyGVXZG

— Amiri King (@AmiriKing) May 27, 2025

X users cut straight through the noise and called it exactly what it is:

It’s not racism it statistics

— Tyler (@T0neyTw0T0ne) March 23, 2026

So now let me guess that's racist. Maybe those are the colors that are stolen more. Why is it always a race issue?

— Pac-Man (@Pacman1980_) March 23, 2026

It's now racist to point out the disparity between crime rates.
The thought crime posse is now fully effective.

— John ?? Nightvision (@JVonSovereign) March 23, 2026

Steal stuff then blame it on racism…?? pic.twitter.com/5COap2E62o

— Based Kenny ? (@_Krypto_Kenny) March 23, 2026

The data shows that otherwise they wouldn't have done it.

— Kristina Bogdanova (@Kristina_Bogda) March 23, 2026

Not racist ….. just practical.

— Marty (@RiverOregon) March 23, 2026

That’s called following the research ?????

— SW (@Freedom4Dummies) March 23, 2026

Exactly. This is what happens when businesses refuse to play the woke game and simply follow the stats. The same common-sense approach that kept shelves stocked before progressive DAs turned shoplifting into a hobby.

When theft has real consequences again, retailers won’t need to lock half the makeup aisle — because the thieves will be off the streets.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 11:15

Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen

The fertilizer crisis appears to be worsening just as the Northern Hemisphere planting season, in some areas, is about to begin, with top ammonium nitrate supplier Russia announcing on Tuesday via state media that exports of the critical crop nutrient will be halted. 

Russia's state-run news agency TASS said Russia will suspend ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 through April 21. The report cited a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

The temporary restriction is intended to secure domestic fertilizer supplies during the spring planting season. Exports made under intergovernmental agreements are exempt.

Russia is the world's largest producer of ammonium nitrate. In 2024, the country produced about 12 million tons, roughly 47% of the global output of the plant nutrient. It was also the largest exporter at about 2.7 million tons, around 37% of global export volume and 40% of export value.

Data based on IndexBox’s ammonium nitrate world market overview

Export disruptions of the critical crop nutrient can hit import-dependent buyers hard, especially in markets such as Brazil, Canada, India, Peru, and Ukraine.

Data based on IndexBox’s ammonium nitrate world market overview

Russia's temporary export comes at the worst possible timing as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins in some regions. 

The risk now is that, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, a global energy shock is also spreading to fertlizer markets and may only suggest a delayed food price shock later this year. 

"The speed of the move [energy shock] pushed volatility sharply higher, with energy once again becoming the primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk into broader macro pricing," UBS analyst Claudio Martucci warned clients earlier this month. 

Claudio pointed out, "Agricultural markets reacted more indirectly to the energy shock via higher fertilizer costs, and higher input and biofuel costs lifted soybean oil to two-year highs, while wheat experienced elevated volatility and some profit-taking late in the week despite an otherwise supportive commodity backdrop."

Last week, former central banker advisor Alexandra Prokopenko warned on X that the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy shock that risks morphing into a "slower, more consequential story": fertilizers.

"A near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a supply shock that will show up in food prices 6–9 months from now," Prokopenko wrote on X, adding, "Putin's gains here may be more long-term than simply lining his pockets with petrodollars."

The Iran war coverage focuses on oil. The slower, more consequential story is fertilizers. A near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a supply shock that will show up in food prices 6-9 months from now. Putin's gains here may be more long-term than simply lining his…

— Alexandra Prokopenko (@amenka) March 19, 2026

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently warned, "But food prices are likely to be as troublesome for second-round inflationary effects. Less well known is that the shock to food prices was worse than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, following the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution. Food inflation in the US was already rising before both shocks, and contributed more to headline CPI than energy through almost all of the 70s."

Prokopenko pointed out, "Consequences already material. Urea up 25-30% since Feb. 28. Gulf producers have declared force majeure on contracts to South America and Asia. ~1 million metric tons of fertilizer physically stranded in the Gulf. Force majeure means contracts are legally severed, not delayed. Buyers must find alternatives now."

The shock in energy markets has already driven crude prices into triple digits and sent gasoline and diesel prices surging worldwide. In countries heavily dependent on Gulf imports, shortages have already developed... 

And fertilizer disruption could be the next wave. It may not hit all at once, but the effects could show up later this year as lower crop yields, tighter food supplies, and higher prices.

So the real-world hedge right now, ahead of the growing season in the Lower 48, is to start small with a backyard garden. Then build a chicken coop (we advise buying one) and use this global energy shock as an excuse to control your own food supply. 

* * * 

We offer a "Seed Vault" of 39 different varieties of hand-selected non-hybrid, non-GMO, open-pollinated heirloom vegetable seeds. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 10:55

Republican California Sheriff Seizes Ballots In Election Probe

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is running to be the next California governor, has seized more than half a million ballots from a November 2025 special election on redistricting, triggering a political and legal confrontation with state officials.

Sheriff Chad Bianco of Riverside County speaks during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on May 15, 2024. Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

Bianco obtained the ballots with a court-approved warrant in February as part of what he described as an investigation into an alleged discrepancy between ballot logs and official vote totals.

The dispute centers on Riverside County, an inland region east of Los Angeles with roughly 2.5 million residents, where Bianco has twice been elected sheriff.

“Investigations into irregularities must happen so that the public can have full confidence,” he said in a March 22 post on X.

Bianco announced the investigation at a press conference on March 20, saying it stemmed from a complaint by a local citizens group that reviewed public records from the county Registrar of Voters.

Bianco alleged that handwritten intake logs showed 611,428 ballots were received, while 657,322 votes were reported to the state—a gap of roughly 45,896 votes. He rejected the registrar’s explanation that official machine counts showed only a minor deviation attributable to human error.

Calling the probe a “fact-finding mission,” Bianco said investigators plan to physically count ballots and compare the total with certified results.

Clash With Attorney General

County election officials and California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, dispute Bianco’s claims and authority to conduct the probe.

Bonta has characterized the seizure as unprecedented. In letters sent to the sheriff’s office over the past two months, he wrote that the action was “unacceptable” and that it “sets a dangerous precedent and will only sow distrust in our elections.”

Bianco said Bonta sought to halt the probe, arguing that law enforcement officers are not authorized or trained to conduct election recounts. He noted that representatives of the attorney general had asked him to pause the investigation until after March 6 without providing a valid reason.

A judge later ordered that counting resume under the supervision of a special master appointed by the court, Bianco said.

He also suggested urgency because ballots from the 2025 election could be destroyed in May 2026 under state retention rules, although election officials did not comment publicly on that timeline.

Bianco cited a University of California–San Diego study that found that about 40 percent of Californians distrust election systems, calling the figure alarming.

“What does sow mistrust in our system is failing to conduct an investigation—or worse, attempting to stop or interfere with a lawful investigation, to sweep it under the rug so evidence can possibly be destroyed,” he told the press conference.

Bianco is one of two prominent Republicans seeking California’s governorship in a crowded June primary that includes numerous Democrats.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

*  *  * Spring is here, got seeds?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 10:20

US PMIs Signal Stagflation Fears Accelerating As War Started

With 'hard' US macro data having drifted weaker all year, consensus was expecting only a modest decline in S&P Global's US Composite index in preliminary March data (that presumably will be affected in some part by the war and its consequences).

The consensus was right, but the picture was mixed with Manufacturing PMI surprising to the upside (52.4 vs 51.5 exp vs 51.6 prior) - highest since Oct 2025.

Services PMI, on the other hand, disappointed, falling to the lowest since April 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, that combination dragged the Composite PMI to 51.4 - the lowest in 11 months - indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.0%, with a modest 1.3% expansion signalled for the first quarter as a whole.

The survey’s price gauges meanwhile point to consumer price inflation accelerating back to around 4%.

"The flash PMI survey data for March signal an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East," warns Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Companies are reporting a hit to demand from the additional uncertainty and cost of living impact generated by the conflict. Travel, transport and tourism related issues are compounded by financial market jitters and affordability constraints, notably including concern over the impact of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and supply chain delays.

“Companies are meanwhile building safety stocks amid concerns that the war may lead to more protracted supply issues and price rises while trimming headcounts to reduce overheads."

Today's PMI print appears to confirm the overall theme of the last couple of months... 'higher' inflation and stagnant (or falling) growth...

Source: Bloomberg

...in other words, central bankers' biggest nemesis: Stagflation.

As Williamson concludes, “The Fed will therefore need juggle these intensifying upside risks to inflation against the growing risk of the economy losing growth momentum, with much depending on the duration of the war and its impact on energy prices and global supply chains.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 09:55

"Awful News": Nintendo Shares Get 'Donkey Konged' After Switch 2 Production Cut

Nintendo shares in Tokyo tumbled overnight after Bloomberg reported that the gaming company has slashed production of the Switch 2 handheld amid soft holiday-season demand and underwhelming U.S. sales.

*NINTENDO CUTS SWITCH 2 OUTPUT BY OVER 30% ON WEAK HOLIDAY SALES

wait, wasn't this thing supposed to be as popular as chatgpt?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 24, 2026

Nintendo is expected to produce 4 million Switch 2 units instead of the originally planned 6 million, with the lower production rate expected to continue into the second quarter.

Despite a record June 2025 launch and 17.37 million units sold since release, management appears disappointed that momentum and hype for the Switch 2 have faded. Japan has held up better than overseas markets, helped by a cheaper domestic-only variant, while U.S. demand has been soft.

"This hardware shortfall in its first year, during its big holiday season, is awful news," Asymmetric Advisors analyst Amir Anvarzadeh wrote in a note.

Sources noted that the output reduction should not affect Nintendo's ability to meet the average Wall Street analyst estimate of about 20 million Switch 2 units sold in the fiscal year through this month.

A soft U.S. market is yet another concern for Nintendo, as soaring memory chip costs squeeze margins and may force a price hike that could further crimp consumer demand.

Related:

• Nintendo Profit Misses As Soaring Memory Prices Could Become Major Headache

The lack of a robust software pipeline has failed to energize consumers.

Anvarzadeh said, "Clearly, the software lineup has been poor, at least until most recently, with Pokémon showing some hope."

The market reaction in Tokyo was negative following the BBG report, with shares closing down nearly 5%. For the year, shares are down 15.2% and nearly 39% from the peak in late summer 2025.

The big takeaway is that Nintendo is not facing a launch failure, but it is struggling to sustain excitement around the device - perhaps because of software issues and the lack of a robust gaming pipeline. Wait to see what happens to demand if Nintendo is forced into a price-hiking cycle because of the memory crunch.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 09:40

Art Of The Dream

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Trump’s 48-hour deadline turned into a weeklong one. Yesterday, the US president announced that he has “instructed the department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period.”

President Trump says he delayed the actions following “very good and productive conversations” with Iran, which he expects to continue throughout the week. However, reports about these talks are inconsistent at best. Iranian media reported that no such talks have taken place, to which Trump responded that he is not sure what they are talking about, adding that talks happened last night. Other media say that there has been some contact via backchannels or via third parties, but add that actual talks have not happened.

Was it all a dream? Or is the US president simply unwilling to follow through on his threats? Iran called Trump’s bluff, threatening to retaliate against energy infrastructure and desalination plants in neighbouring countries. US allies may have convinced Trump that this would create a much bigger crisis in the region. So, perhaps Trump is just buying time for an alternative form of escalation. The new deadline coincides with the expected arrival of US marines in the region.

*US MARINES SLATED TO ARRIVE IN MIDEAST FRIDAY: WSJ

just as Trump's 5-day extension expires

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 23, 2026

Either way, Trump’s change of tone boosted risk sentiment and supported equity portfolios, particularly of those who just so happened to place large orders ahead of the presidential social media post. But markets may be dreaming too.

Further escalation has been averted for now, but don’t forget that Iran does not need to escalate. Iran continues to have full control over the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the regime is willing and able to execute pinpointed strikes, sailing through will be a prohibitively dangerous endeavour. And, the longer even an impasse lasts, the bigger the damage to energy supply chains and economies.

Moreover, while Trump is now talking about de-escalating the scenario and a potential peaceful resolution, Iran continues missile strikes on Israel – and Israel presses ahead with its military campaign. And several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council signaled willingness to join the fight against Iran. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting their energy exports, so the GCC nations may see a role for themselves to ensure that the Strait is reopened. But, more importantly, Iran’s retaliatory strikes against targets in neighbouring countries –and threats of more– may have struck a nerve.

As a result, some of the optimism waned this morning already. Energy prices are rebounding from yesterday’s lows, and equity traders are once again taking a more cautious stance than they did after Trump’s social media post yesterday. 

Speaking of the economic damage caused, Eurozone consumer confidence took a significant hit in March, falling back to -16.3 from -12.3 in February. With the previous energy crisis still fresh in memory, that is no surprise. Faltering confidence has yet to affect actual consumer spending, but this does raise the risk that the war’s impact on economic activity in Europe could be visible relatively quickly.

Amidst the geopolitical risks, the EU continues to seek diversification of its economic alliances. Brussels signed a free trade agreement with Australia, following on the deals with Mercosur, India, and Indonesia. Parliament still has to approve the deal, but this should be less contested than the Mercosur agreement.

The EU-Australia deal includes a combination of tariff cuts and higher quotas for certain dairy products, beef and sheep meat. Geographical product names are protected by the deal, to the displeasure of Australian farmers, who believe that access to the European market remains impeded.

Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said that the deal should increase annual bilateral trade by about €20 billion over the next decade, but that’s arguably not the EU’s main motivation. A security and defense partnership underscores the geopolitical motive, and improved access to Australia’s critical raw materials may be an extension of this.

*  *  *

Click to see full list of seeds Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 09:22

Dry Van Spot Rates Highest Since 2022 As Spring Tightens Capacity

Submitted by FreightWaves,

The freight market momentum is building at a rapid clip.

National dry van spot rates — tracked via the SONAR National Truckload Index, the 7-day moving average of booked rates including fuel — have broken out to a new cycle high of $2.89 per mile.

This represents the strongest level since 2022 and confirms the market’s shift toward carriers is gaining real traction.

Even more telling: rates jumped $0.12 per mile in the past week alone. That’s a sharp weekly gain that underscores accelerating tightness and carrier pricing power. Spot rates have now recaptured roughly $0.50–$0.60 per mile net of fuel over recent months, climbing from the low $2.00s that defined much of 2023–2024. We’re witnessing 20–25% year-over-year recovery in key lanes and metrics, with volumes holding at multi-year highs reminiscent of late 2022.

This isn’t isolated noise — it’s driven by fundamentals. The return of industrial demand remains the core engine, with stronger manufacturing signals, flatbed activity, and overall domestic freight resilience putting sustained pressure on a shrunken truckload supply. Multi-year carrier attrition (exits, driver regulations, and structural challenges) has left capacity thin, making the market highly responsive to any demand pickup. National tender rejection rates sit stubbornly in the low-to-mid teens (around 13–14% recently), with the Midwest still leading above 18% and tightness now spreading more broadly.

Seasonal layers are piling on:

• Produce season is ramping in major growing regions.

• Construction is accelerating as weather improves.

• Gardening and home improvement demand is building.

• Beverage season is gearing up for warmer months.

These verticals compound the industrial rebound, further squeezing available trucks.

The West Coast awakening adds a powerful pull. Chinese New Year landed later this year (February 17, 2026, vs. earlier in prior cycles), prolonging the post-CNY slowdown and keeping Southern California unusually loose into early March (outbound rejections below 5%). But the rebound is hitting hard now: inbound containers are surging, outbound tenders are recovering, and rejections are set to rise meaningfully.

This creates a classic “magnet” for capacity. Long-haul carriers chase West-to-East port loads for their superior length of haul (1,500–2,000+ miles per move) versus shorter eastern runs that demand multiple loads for equivalent paid miles. As trucks reposition westward from Midwest/Southeast corridors (along I-35 and parallels) to capture higher-paying outbound freight via I-20 and I-40, interior markets face no relief — expect even tighter conditions back east. The Midwest’s industrial strength and elevated rejections mean any capacity drain will intensify pressure, not ease it.

Broader indicators align:

• Tender rejection rates remain high nationally, with seasonal builds accelerating the spread.

• Dry van spot rates continue rising on resilient volumes and persistent constraints.

• Ocean bookings are starting to recover sharply from Chinese New Year

The bottom line: Spring 2026 is igniting hotter and earlier than recent years. The $2.89 cycle high — fueled by a $0.12 weekly jump — reflects tightening capacity, resurgent industrial demand, seasonal verticals firing up, and the delayed-but-powerful post-CNY import surge creating synchronized tightness. Shippers unprepared for higher costs are under immediate strain, with routing guides tested early. Carriers positioned for West Coast outbound, industrial, and seasonal lanes are capturing the gains as capacity reallocates — but back east, conditions are set to tighten further as carriers shift their focus towards the West to East longhaul.

Monitor SONAR outbound rejections and spot rates from Southern California over the next 2–4 weeks, alongside Midwest/Southeast trends. The speed of this spread will show how broad and sustained the impact becomes.

The spring shipping season is just getting started — and it’s going to be a hot one

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 08:05

Wall Street's Trillion-Dollar Bet On "Tax Alpha"

Tax alpha — the practice of improving investment returns by reducing taxes — has become one of the fastest-growing strategies on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg. 

Rather than focusing only on beating the market, many investment firms now design portfolios to minimize taxes, often producing higher after-tax returns even if pre-tax performance is similar to traditional strategies.

After years of rising markets, many wealthy Americans hold large unrealized gains in stocks and funds. To address the resulting tax burden, asset managers have developed a wide ecosystem of tax-optimization techniques. More than $1 trillion is now invested in strategies built around tax efficiency, ranging from simple ETF structures to complex hedge fund portfolios.

Some of the simplest approaches involve structuring funds to limit taxable events. Certain exchange-traded funds minimize distributions by carefully timing stock sales, reducing investors’ annual tax bills. At the other end of the spectrum are more complex strategies that deliberately generate losses or deductible expenses that can offset gains — and sometimes even ordinary income.

One of the fastest-growing segments is tax-aware long-short investing. These portfolios simultaneously hold long and short positions in stocks, seeking both overall market returns and realized losses that investors can use to offset capital gains elsewhere. Estimates suggest more than $100 billion is invested in these strategies.

Technology and new financial startups have also made tax optimization more accessible. Strategies once limited to ultra-wealthy investors with millions of dollars are increasingly available to clients with much smaller portfolios, thanks to automation and lower costs.

Bloomberg writes that large asset managers have joined the trend as well. Firms such as BlackRock and Vanguard have expanded offerings in separately managed accounts and direct indexing. Instead of buying a fund that tracks an index, direct indexing allows investors to own the individual stocks themselves, making it easier to sell losing positions and offset gains elsewhere in the portfolio. Direct indexing alone has grown to more than $1 trillion in assets.

Hedge funds are also adapting their strategies to focus on after-tax returns. Quantitative firms including AQR Capital Management and Man Group have introduced tax-aware versions of their portfolios that actively manage gains and losses to improve clients’ tax outcomes.

The growth of tax-alpha strategies has attracted criticism from policymakers and tax experts. Because every dollar saved by investors reduces government revenue, critics argue the trend widens inequality by giving wealthy investors sophisticated tools to lower their tax bills. Many of the strategies rely on provisions in decades-old tax laws that were written long before the speed and complexity of modern financial markets.

Some of these techniques — such as exchange funds and certain corporate restructuring transactions used to move appreciated assets into ETFs without triggering taxes — are beginning to draw scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers. However, meaningful legislative action appears unlikely in the near term.

Despite the criticism, demand continues to rise. Advisors argue that after-tax performance often matters far more than headline investment returns, especially for investors facing high capital-gains taxes. Deferring taxes allows more money to remain invested and compound over time.

Many tax-alpha strategies rely on deferral rather than permanent avoidance. Investors may still owe taxes when they eventually sell assets. But if those taxes can be postponed for years — or even decades — the additional compounding can significantly increase long-term wealth.

In some cases, taxes may never be realized at all. Under current U.S. law, inherited assets receive a “step-up in basis,” meaning unrealized gains can effectively disappear when wealth passes to heirs. This possibility makes long-term tax deferral one of the most powerful forms of tax alpha.

*  *  * Add Alpha to your garden with CLEAN FOOD

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 07:45

Amazon Data Centers "Disrupted" Across Bahrain After Drone Activity

Brent crude futures are back in triple-digit territory as fighting in the Middle East continued overnight, even as President Trump claimed that talks are underway with Iran to resolve the conflict, which has now entered its fourth week.

Overnight, the Amazon Web Services in the Bahrain region was severely "disrupted," according to Reuters, citing an Amazon spokesperson, following drone activity in the area. The spokesperson would not confirm whether Iranian drones struck any data centers.

"As this situation evolves and, as we have advised before, we request those with workloads in the affected regions continue to migrate to other locations," Amazon wrote in a statement.

Bahrain News Agency reported on Monday that its armed forces had intercepted and destroyed 147 Iranian ballistic missiles and 282 drones since the start of the conflict. 

Amazon's cloud computing unit is critical for Bahrain's digital infrastructure and is embedded in public-sector cloud operations. 

This disruption to AWS data centers in the Gulf is the second instance in the US-Iran conflict of IRGC forces targeting data centers with drones in early March. 

Latest reporting:

• Data Center Hunter: Iran Expands Drone Target List, From AWS To Microsoft Facilities

• Drone Strikes On Amazon Data Centers In Middle East Reveal Urgent Need To Defend AI

• Airports, Data Centers, Skyscrapers, & Power Plants: Are Desalination Plants Next Targets In U.S.-Iran War

• "Bomb Data Center": Eric Schmidt Warns AI Arms Race Could Spark Global Conflict

"The targeting of Amazon and Microsoft in these operations has dealt a serious blow to the enemy's technological and information infrastructure," Iranian news outlet Fars News Agency said in a Telegram post, as quoted by the Financial Times earlier this month.

We warned, one month before two AWS data centers in the UAE were hit by IRGC drones, that Wall Street analysts had completely missed the fact that, with trillions of dollars being deployed over the next several years worldwide on data center buildouts, one major security gap had emerged: the urgent need for counter-UAS systems.

We know exactly why Wall Street analysts completely missed this security gap: they were too weirdly fixated on a non-existent climate crisis and could not properly identify the most immediate threat. These Ivy League-educated analysts simply had the wrong framework to operate on.

Since the US-Iran conflict began, it has confirmed that civilian infrastructure will not be spared (and in fact increasingly targeted over explicit military assets), and this is a wake-up call for data-center builders worldwide. Time to deploy counter-UAS systems.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 06:55

International Energy Agency Pushes Rationing

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The International Energy Agency in Paris has released a new and urgent document that it wishes all nations with energy struggles to adopt.

Many are doing that now.

The website even maintains a spreadsheet updated daily to celebrate the countries that are following its plan for controlling energy use.

Before explaining why none of this will work, let’s look at what they are suggesting.

Seeming out of nowhere, the head of the IEA, Dr. Fatih Birol, is being quoted in the high-end press as the world’s expert.

His Wikipedia page says that he is from Turkey but works closely with China on the “energy transition.”

Indeed, he has been a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering since 2013.

Inspired by the manner in which governments were able to control communication and people during the COVID crisis, the IEA advises the following:

1. Work from home where possible. You read that right: we are back to languishing at home and consuming entertainment through laptops. Some governments (Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Philippines) have already adopted this policy loosely, with new measures such as four-day work weeks. IEA comments: “Displaces oil use from commuting, particularly where jobs are suitable for remote work.”

2. Reduce highway speed limits by at least 10 km/h. That means lowering all speed limits by 6-7 miles per hour, which is really nothing more than a method to create an annoyance. The IEA says “lower speeds reduce fuel use for passenger cars, vans and trucks,” but is that even true? Not always. Boggy traffic creates more stop/start situations that cause more gas consumption.

3. Encourage public transport. That exhortation has been the dream of city planners for probably 50 years. Not everyone can do this of course and a mandate like that will cause many just to stay home. In this case, IEA is probably correct: “A shift from private cars to buses and trains can quickly reduce oil demand.” But not for the reason you might think. It just means more staying at home.

4. Alternate private car access to roads in large cities on different days. Now we are getting to a policy that drove an entire generation batty in the 1970s. In those days, even/odd license plates were allowed access to gas but this is more intense. Alternating access would require a massive policing effort, one that is without precedent. IEA comments: “Number-plate rotation schemes can reduce congestion and fuel-intensive driving.”

5. Increase car sharing and adopt efficient driving practices. This is easily done in the same way police enforce HOV lanes. You cannot drive alone. You must have other passengers if you are going to be out on the road. One can imagine a future in which people routinely grab a family member or friend to sit in the passenger seat for compliance purposes. IEA comments: “Higher car occupancy and eco-driving can lower fuel consumption quickly.”

6. Efficient driving for road commercial vehicles and delivery of goods. Here we get to the old essential/nonessential divide. Commercial deliveries are allowed because we have to live somehow but driving to the park for a picnic or visiting friends and families is not.

7. Divert LPG [Liquefied Petroleum Gas] use from transport. This is the planner’s vision to preserve propane for “essential needs.”

8. Avoid air travel where alternative options exist. You will surely notice that this is already happening. My recent flight bookings have doubled in price. Because of the limited government shutdown, airport security lines can be 2-3 hours. People miss flights or simply bail out and go home. This is also causing connections to fail. Events this weekend that relied on travel are a bust. IEA comments: “Reducing business flights can quickly ease pressure on jet fuel markets.”

9. Where possible, switch to other modern cooking solutions. Earlier we saw an exhortation to save propane for cooking but here we see that this is not recommended either. We are supposed to switch to electric appliances. IEA comments: “Encouraging electric cooking and other modern options can reduce reliance on LPG.”

10. Leverage flexibility with petrochemical feedstocks and implement short-term efficiency and maintenance measures. This advice is directed toward energy plants to switch from one source to another to conserve oil. This suggestion reaches deep into industrial planning and would require draconian enforcement.

There are features of this plan that surely remind you of what we went through just a few years ago for purposes of controlling infectious disease. It’s uncanny how there is a spooky overlap between those methods and these. They all require staying home, hunkering down, reducing consumption, complying with edicts, feeling afraid both of shortages and of methods of enforcement.

To be sure, you could say that the International Energy Agency has no actual power. It was founded in 1974 to monitor global energy use. It has more recently been a top advocate of net-zero energy policies associated with what is known popularly as the “Great Reset.” It is not a private organization as such but a non-government branch of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, meaning quasi-official but without the power to enforce its edicts.

In this way, the IEA bears some resemblance to the World Health Organization that is within the United Nations framework. The WHO has no enforcement power either but its pandemic declaration and recommendation to the world that everyone adopt the methods of the CCP had a major influence. It has what is called soft power—not coercion but authoritative and something that every government can use as cover for misdeeds.

Most people today have never heard of the IEA, but the same was true of the WHO just six years ago, until it became a controlling force in our lives. At one point, Internet censorship was so intense that YouTube announced that it would not permit any video that contradicted the advice of the WHO. That really happened. The same could happen here as well.

None of these measures will reduce the price of oil, gas, or anything else. What you don’t consume, someone else will. This is the whole point of rationing, to make sure that resources flow to uses deemed essential and away from those deemed unessential.

A quick note on air travel: I’ve noticed for years now that it has become ever more arduous and expensive and invasive. It’s to the point that I would rather take a 6-hour train ride than a 90-minute flight. That’s especially true now that you need to get to the airport 3-4 hours ahead of your scheduled flight to have any hope of getting a seat. At some point, it just becomes too much and people decide that it is not worth it. Thus the goal is achieved of essentially putting an end to commercial airline traffic.

To be sure, all this could end in a matter of weeks. If peace dawns in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is opened, and refining capacity grows, the price will fall. Also the Transportation Safety Authority could come back to work and the lines fall. Normalcy would return. Prices go way down and everyone chills.

How likely is that to happen? My intuition suggests that it is not likely. We seem to be headed into another lockdown situation under different excuses and with a different goal. I hope I’m wrong.

Regardless, none of these measures being pushed today are going to ameliorate the problem. The only result will be to increase the control grid over your life.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 06:30

America's Top War Unicorn To Begin Combat Drone Production As Next-Gen Startups Challenge Big Defense Primes

Weaponized AI, interceptor drones, automated kill chains, ground robots armed with machine guns, humanoid robots, and FPVs equipped with shaped charges all offer a scary preview of what warfare in the 2030s was expected to look like.

Instead, four years of war in Ukraine, followed by the U.S.-Iran conflict, have sharply accelerated that timeline, pulling the future of warfare into today. These are truly frightening times, as defenses against this technology are still lacking across the West (Amazon found that out with its data centers bombed).

We warned about this drone threat exactly one month before. Wall Street analysts largely missed it because their framework remained fixated on climate change nonsense rather than properly assessing real-world incoming risks. They get paid the big bucks, yet still fail to see actual threats. 

On the positive side, the U.S. Department of War under President Trump appears to recognize that the modern battlefield is shifting quickly toward low-cost, scalable autonomous systems (first revealed here). In response, the DoW's DOGE initiative is focused on overhauling its procurement program, moving away from legacy primes such as Lockheed and Boeing and toward a new generation of defense startups, or "war unicorns," now viewed as a national security priority.

This brings us to Palmer Luckey's Anduril Industries, which is expected to begin production of its new FURY "loyal wingman" high-speed combat drones at a new facility in Ohio next week. 

Soon. https://t.co/6V68tR0nF9 pic.twitter.com/KZj6bmUZAp

— Anduril Industries (@anduriltech) March 20, 2026

Reuters said Anduril's new Columbus-based production facility is expected to employ more than 4,000 people over the next decade, starting with 250 this year as production begins to ramp up for the new drone built for the Air Force loyal-wingman program.

Reporter Molly O'Shea recently interviewed Luckey, during which he said, "We [were] competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Anduril beat all of them."

"This is the first autonomous fighter that the United States Air Force has ever procured," Luckey said, adding, "We went from signing a contract with the Air Force to first flight in 556 days, which is, as far as I know, the fastest new fighter development program since the end of the Korean War."

FURY: "We [were] competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, & in the end Anduril beat all of them."

Palmer Luckey (@PalmerLuckey), Anduril

"This is the first autonomous fighter that the United States Air Force has ever procured.

We recently just flew it for… https://t.co/c0XYbwuogH pic.twitter.com/kBsSBolk3q

— Molly O’Shea (@MollySOShea) December 15, 2025

Matt Grimm, Anduril's co-founder and chief operating officer, told Reuters that its manufacturing approach is fundamentally different from that of the big defense primes. Because of this, we noted last month "the rise of the war unicorns."

Regarding fund flows, the DoW is seeking seasoned bankers to help deploy $200 billion in private equity over the next three years into war unicorns, a sign that defense startups may be emerging as the next major investment boom.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 05:45

Iceland Strips Father Of Custody After Questioning Gender Transitioning Of His Minor Child

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We just discussed the horrifying story of a Christian family in Sweden who have been unable to regain custody of their daughters after the government declared them religious extremists.

In Iceland, a father has been stripped of his parental rights after speaking out against his 11-year-old autistic son‘s sex change.

Alexandre Rocha, a French national who has lived in Iceland for 25 years, lost custody of the child to the child’s mother in December after questioning the long-term impacts of puberty blockers and hormone therapies.

Rocha says that his child is confused and exposed to little beyond video games.

He argued that his child’s autism and the trauma of the marital separation led to the findings of mental and emotional instability.

He believes that his child was pulled along this course, attracted by the attention from the various advisers.

The issue is not who is right or wrong, but why Iceland would terminate his parental rights because he has spoken out against what he believes is a harmful course of treatment for his child.

He believes that experts ignored how autism can produce the same feelings that they used to justify his gender transition as a minor.

He noted that his child also wanted to be a cat–often wearing cat ears in public.

Elon Musk has supported the father.

Musk has complained that he felt “tricked’ by experts in consenting to his own child to transition into a female.

Rocha had accused the mother of obstructing visits. Court documents show that the mother denied intentionally obstructing court-ordered visitation. She alleged that the child refused visits because Rocha did not affirm the child’s gender identity or use the new name.

There is an intense debate over the gender transitioning of minors.

Various European countries have also halted certain procedures after countervailing studies suggesting that the risks are too high.

England’s National Health Service 2024 report on the subject, known as the Cass Report, found concerning evidence of harm for minors and inconclusive benefits.

The Trump Administration has moved against hospitals engaging in such treatments.

Dozens of hospitals have halted such work, but New York Attorney General Letitia James has threatened to sue any hospital that refuses such treatment for discrimination under New York law.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 05:00

Israel's Mossad Promised It Could Ignite Regime Change In Iran: Report

Via Middle East Eye

Israel's intelligence agency Mossad had a plan to ignite public protests that would lead to the collapse of Iran’s government, the New York Times has reported.

David Barnea, Mossad’s chief, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu days before the US and Israel began their war on Iran and told him that the agency would be able to galvanize Iranian opposition in order to bring about regime change.

Getty Images

Barnea, according to the report, which cites interviews with US and Israeli officials, also presented this proposal to senior US officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January. 

The plan was then taken up by Netanyahu and Trump, despite doubts among some senior American officials and Israeli military intelligence. Mossad's promises were, according to US and Israeli officials, used by Netanyahu to convince the US president that collapsing the Iranian government was possible.

In the plan's conception, the war would begin with the killing of Iranian leaders, followed by a "series of intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change." This could, Mossad believed, lead to a mass uprising that would bring about victory for Israel and the US.

As the war began, Trump’s public messaging reflected this. In an eight-minute video statement he said:

"Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand…when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations."

But talk of regime change quickly evaporated. Less than two weeks in, US senators came out of a briefing on the war to say that overthrowing the Islamic Republic was not one of its goals, and that in fact there was "no plan" at all for the military operation.

Netanyahu frustrated with Mossad

The CIA's own assessment of the situation is that the Iranian administration will not be overthrown. In fact, the US intelligence agency had said that if Iran’s leaders were killed, a "more radical" leadership would take power.

Israeli intelligence sees Iran's government as weakened but intact. "The belief that Israel and the United States could help instigate widespread revolt was a foundational flaw in the preparations for a war that has spread across the Middle East," the NYT report said.

While Netanyahu has remained bullish about the prospect of putting troops on the ground in Iran, he is said to be frustrated that Mossad's promises to bring about an uprising have not come to fruition.

According to the NYT, Netanyahu said in a security meeting days after the war began that Trump could end the war at any moment if Mossad’s operations did not bear fruit.

Allegations that the White House went in the direction of 'optimistic' Israeli assessments over US intelligence consensus:

Another example of that high-value intelligence we get from Israel, I guess. The CIA doubted that a war would quickly lead to a democratic uprising against the Iranian regime. But Israel's Mossad was optimistic it could spur regime change. Trump listened to the Israelis. https://t.co/knLLHpzSyw

— Andrew Day (@AKDay89) March 23, 2026

Mossad's promises were, according to the report, disputed by many senior US officials and analysts at the Israeli army’s intelligence agency, Aman. 

US military leaders told Trump that Iranians would not take to the streets while bombs were falling, while intelligence officials assessed that the chances of a mass uprising were low.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 23:05

Working While You're Collecting Social Security

Authored by Anne Johnson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Choosing when to collect Social Security retirement benefits is a consequential decision. It will affect your finances for the rest of your life. You’ll be able to claim reduced retirement benefits as early as 62.

Claiming Social Security early could cost you—especially if you’re still working. Rix Pix Photography/Shutterstock

In fact, in 2022, nearly 30 percent of new Social Security beneficiaries began receiving benefits at age 62, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. The full retirement age (FRA) for those born in 1960 or later is 67, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA). Although you can claim the benefits early, there are drawbacks. And one of them relates to any continued employment.

Social Security Earnings Test

You can receive Social Security or survivors’ benefits and work at the same time. But the Social Security earnings test will be applied to you.

According to the SSA, if you start collecting retirement benefits before FRA and earn more than $24,480 in 2026, you will be penalized. The SSA deducts $1 from your benefits for every $2 you earn above $24,480.

If you reach FRA in 2026, the SSA deducts $1 from your benefits for every $3 you earn above $65,160 until the month you reach FRA.

For example, you file for benefits in January 2026, and your payment is $600 monthly, or $7,200 annually. But during 2026, you plan to work and earn $26,080. You will be $1,600 above the limit. The SSA would withhold $800 of your Social Security benefits.

How Do You Pay the Penalty?

If you file for Social Security benefits at 62 in January 2026, and your benefit is $600 a month, or $7,200 per year. During 2026, you plan to work and earn $26,080, which is $1,600 above the limit. The SSA would withhold $800 of your Social Security benefits ($1 for every $2 you earned over the limit).

To do this, they would withhold all $600 benefits in January and all $600 benefits in February to take the $800. Keep in mind that the SSA does not make partial payments. So, they would take all the February benefits. In other words, you would go two months without benefits. But you would receive all your $600 benefit in March.

The SSA would pay you the additional $400 they took from February 2026 back to you in January 2027.

The SSA doesn’t actually know your earnings in advance. They rely on three items: your estimate when you apply; your employer’s wage reports; and your tax return later.

Often, they don’t know you’ve gone over the maximum until the following year. At that point, they would withhold the overage.

First-Year Rule Saves Money

Sometimes, people younger than FRA begin receiving benefits in the middle of the year. At that point, they may have already exceeded the yearly limit.

According to the SSA, under the first-year rule, you can receive full Social Security benefits for any whole month you are retired, and earnings are below the monthly limit. In other words, the limit starts the month you start receiving benefits, not for the prior months when you may have gone over the limit.

So, if you started receiving benefits in July 2026, you must be under the limit from July through December 2026. But you don’t have to be below the limit from January 2026 through June 2026.

This rule allows you to work earlier in the year, retire midyear, and still collect Social Security immediately without losing benefits earned before you started collecting them.

Social Security Refunds Penalties at FRA

Although some of your benefits may be reduced if you work, they will be returned later. According to the SSA, if some of your benefits are withheld because of your earnings, your monthly benefit will increase starting at FRA. It will take into account those months when benefits were withheld.

Earnings Drawback to Collecting Social Security Before FRA

Whether or not you’re working, if you start drawing your Social Security benefits before FRA, you’ll receive less money.

If you start receiving benefits early, your benefits will be reduced by a small percentage for each month before your FRA. According to the SSA, those born in 1960 or later will have their benefits reduced by 30 percent if they retire at 62.

So, if your FRA benefit is $1,000, because of the reduction, you’ll receive $700 if you start benefits at age 62. A spouse’s benefit is reduced by 35 percent, which brings it down to $325, according to the SSA.

How to Contact the Social Security Association

The best and most convenient way to contact the SSA is to visit www.ssa.gov. You’ll be able to use their services and receive information. If you live outside the United States, visit www.ssa.gov/foreign to access online services.

If you don’t have internet access, call 1-800-772-1213 or the TTY number, 1-800-325-0778 if you’re deaf or hard of hearing. They recommend calling between Wednesday and Friday and later in the month when it’s less busy.

* * * 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 22:15

Apollo Private Credit Fund Is Latest To Gate Investors As KKR Fund Gets Junked By Moody's

Amid the ongoing fracturing of the private credit industry, which after enjoying years of stable, levered growth (and when it ran out of institutional greater fools, it aimed lower, toward HNWs and retail) finally hit a brick wall thanks to the Claude-inspired SaaSpocalypse, which has led to a historic surge in redemption requests across the biggest (and certainly smallest) names in the industry, last week we said that debt funds managed by powerhouse firms including Blackstone, BlackRock, Cliffwater, Morgan Stanley and Monroe Capital have agreed to honor only 70% of the $10.1bn of redemption requests they have faced, according to FT calculations, as fund after fund is gating investors.

We also said that the number of both redemptions and gates is expected to spike over the coming weeks, as funds managed by Ares Management, Apollo Global, Blue Owl, Oaktree and Goldman Sachs tally up how many of their investors are heading for the exits, as discussed here.

According to the above table, Apollo's private credit fund, APODS, was supposed to report its Q1 outflow in early May. However, the surge in redemptions was so big the private equity giant decided not to wait that long, and according to Bloomberg, Apollo Global Management has joined a growing number of its peers in gating redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to be flooded by a surge in such requests.

The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions (APODS), capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%, according to a shareholder letter seen by Bloomberg, thus gating more than half of the redemption requests. 

"Periods of complexity and uncertainty can create some of the most attractive investment opportunities, but only for those with the flexibility to act decisively,” the firm said, adding that “while the market has repriced risk, the fundamentals of the fund’s underlying borrowers remain strong."

The firm expects the granted redemptions to amount to roughly $730 million of gross outflows for the first quarter, offsetting the roughly $724 million of inflows for the period. Apollo Debt Solutions has been building its reserves in the past month, doubling the size of one credit line to $1 billion and signing a new $500 million facility.

What's worse is Apollo has effectively pre-gated next quarter's redemption requests, saying that it intends to stick to the same cap next quarter as it balances “the interests of shareholders seeking liquidity with those who choose to remain invested,” it said in the letter, noting that challenging times can benefit investors in the long run.

With redeeming investors receiving just 45% of their capital, Apollo Debt Solutions is returning less cash to clients than some of its peers that capped withdrawals. As we reported previously, while BlackRock also capped redemptions from its $26 billion non-traded BDC at a pre-set 5% earlier this month, investors had "only" requested 9.3% of their shares. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s North Haven Private Income Fund’s pro-rated redemptions were granted at a similar rate to Apollo’s.

It seems that with every passing week, after Blue Owl started the private credit firesale a month ago, more investors are seeking to return their capital... and more are being gated. 

As regular readers are aware, while private credit funds typically limit redemptions to 5% of outstanding shares, the recent bank run redemption scramble among retail investors has tested firms’ flexibility. Some firms such as Blackstone opted to exceed the cap - and fund the shortfall out of the partners' own pocket - in the hopes of quelling investor panic and stanching further outflows. That valiant effort failed after Blackstone's peers such as Blackrock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley gated their own investors. 

Apollo, which has been pushing for more transparency in private markets, also said Monday that Apollo Debt Solutions had returned 1% over the past three months. At the same time, its net asset value dipped by 1.2% over the same period. Last night we reported that the largest private credit fund, Blackstone's BCRED, reported its first monthly decline since September 2022. 

Meanwhile, in related news, late on Monday a private credit fund jointly run by Future Standard and KKR was the first to get junked, losing one of its investment-grade ratings, a rare occurrence in the $1.8 trillion private credit market, and one which will certainly result in higher borrowing costs for the $14 billion investment vehicle.

Moody’s Ratings lowered its assessment of FS KKR Capital Corp. to Ba1, or one level into junk, because of what it described as “continued asset quality challenges” that have hurt profitability and the value of the fund’s portfolio relative to peers, the credit grader said in a statement on Monday.

The fund’s non-accrual rate, which measures soured loans, rose to 5.5% of total investments as of the end of last year, one of the highest percentages among peers. It also expressed concern over other investments not classified as non-accrual that have have suffered significant markdowns, including a loan to software company Medallia.

The rating agency also called out FSK’s higher proportion of payment-in-kind income relative to peers, which it said is a sign of “weaker earnings quality.” PIK provisions allow borrowers to pay interest by accumulating additional debt instead of paying out cash.   

That said, the ratings firm said the fund is “well positioned” from a liquidity perspective, with about $2.5 billion available after repaying a $1 billion note earlier this year.

“FSK remains well positioned despite the decision,” a spokesperson for the fund, referring to its stock-exchange ticker, said in an emailed statement. “It has a strong, well‑laddered liability structure with no 2026 unsecured maturities and limited near‑term maturities, enabling us to continue supporting our portfolio companies and navigate the current market environment.”

And now it's junk.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 21:50

Bovard: The Late Robert Mueller, Bill Of Rights Executioner

Authored by Jim Bovard

Obituaries on eminent Washingtonians usually omit the dreadful precedents they set that will vex Americans long after their death. Not this piece.

Former FBI director Robert Mueller died last week at the age of 81. The New York Times eulogized him as a “button-down, lockjawed, rock-ribbed exemplar of a vanishing caste.” In reality, Mueller was simply a twenty-first century version of J. Edgar Hoover, trampling the Constitution and seizing new power on any pretext.

Mueller took over the FBI one week before the 9/11 attacks and he was worse than clueless afterwards. On September 14, 2011, Mueller declared, “The fact that there were a number of individuals that happened to have received training at flight schools here is news, quite obviously. If we had understood that to be the case, we would have—perhaps one could have averted this.” Three days later, Mueller announced, “There were no warning signs that I’m aware of that would indicate this type of operation in the country.” His protestations helped the W. Bush administration railroad the Patriot Act through Congress, vastly expanding the FBI’s prerogatives to vacuum up Americans’ personal information.

Photo by Jim Bovard while covering the 2018 Women’s March in Washington.

Deceit helped capture those intrusive new prerogatives. The Bush administration suppressed until the following May the news that FBI agents in Phoenix and Minneapolis had warned FBI headquarters of suspicious Arabs in flight training programs prior to 9/11. A House-Senate Joint Intelligence Committee analysis concluded that FBI incompetence and negligence “contributed to the United States becoming, in effect, a sanctuary for radical terrorists.” FBI blundering spurred The Wall Street Journal to call for Mueller’s resignation, while a New York Times headline warned: “Lawmakers Say Misstatements Cloud F.B.I. Chief’s Credibility.”

But the FBI was off and running. Thanks to the Patriot Act, the FBI increased by a hundredfold—up to 50,000 a year—the number of National Security Letters (NSLs) it issued to citizens, business, and nonprofit organizations, and recipients were prohibited from disclosing that their data had been raided. NSLs entitle the FBI to seize records that reveal “where a person makes and spends money, with whom he lives and lived before, how much he gambles, what he buys online, what he pawns and borrows, where he travels, how he invests, what he searches for and reads on the Web, and who telephones or e-mails him at home and at work,” The Washington Post noted. The FBI can lasso thousands of people’s records with a single NSL—regardless of the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition of unreasonable warrantless searches.

The FBI greatly understated the number of NSLs it was issuing and denied that abuses had occurred, thereby helping sway Congress to renew the Patriot Act in 2006. The following year, an Inspector General report revealed that FBI agents may have recklessly issued thousands of illegal NSLs. Shortly after that report was released, federal judge Victor Marrero denounced the NSL process as “the legislative equivalent of breaking and entering, with an ominous free pass to the hijacking of constitutional values.”

Rather than arresting FBI agents who broke the law, Mueller created a new FBI Office of Integrity and Compliance. The Electronic Freedom Foundation, after winning lawsuits to garner FBI reports to a federal oversight board, concluded that the FBI may have committed “tens of thousands” of violations of federal law, regulations, or Executive Orders between 2001 and 2008.

President George W. Bush, scorning a unanimous 1972 Supreme Court ruling, decided he was entitled to impose warrantless wiretaps on Americans. At an April 2005 Senate hearing, Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) asked Mueller, “Can the National Security Agency, the great electronic snooper, spy on the American people?” Mueller replied, “I would say generally, they are not allowed to spy or to gather information on American citizens.”

Mueller presumably knew his answer was at least misleading if not blatantly deceptive. Nearly nine months later, The New York Times revealed that Bush had unleashed NSA to illegally wiretap up to five hundred people within the United States at any given time and peruse millions of other Americans’ emails. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales responded to the uproar by asserting that “the president has the inherent authority” to order such wiretaps. Mueller had no trouble with that dictatorial doctrine—even though the same claim spurred one of the articles of impeachment crafted against President Richard Nixon.

Mueller’s biggest coup against privacy occurred with Section 215 of the Patriot Act, which entitles the FBI to demand “business records” that are “relevant” to a terrorism or espionage investigation. In 2011 testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mueller “suggested the FBI interpreted (Section 215) narrowly and used it sparingly,” the ACLU noted. But Mueller was the point man for the Bush administration’s bizarre 2006 decision (perpetuated by Barack Obama) that all Americans’ telephone records were “relevant” to terrorism investigations. Several times a year, Mueller signed orders to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, swaying it to continually renew its order compelling telephone companies to deliver all their calling records (including time, duration, and location of calls) to the National Security Agency.

On June 5, 2013, leaks from former NSA contractor Edward Snowden blew the lid off this surveillance regime. Federal judge Richard Leon slammed that records roundup as “almost Orwellian…I cannot imagine a more indiscriminate and arbitrary invasion than this systematic and high-tech collection and retention of personal data on virtually every single citizen for purposes of querying and analyzing it without prior judicial approval.”

Mueller sought to dampen the Snowden uproar by testifying to Congress that the feds could not listen to Americans’ calls without a warrant for that “particular phone and that particular individual.” But NSA employees had broad discretion to vacuum up Americans’ info without warrants, and NSA’s definition of terrorist suspect was so ludicrously broad that it includes “someone searching the web for suspicious stuff.”

Mueller was replaced at the FBI by James Comey. After Comey was fired in May 2017 by President Donald Trump, Comey leaked official memos with confidential information to a lawyer who delivered them to The New York Times. Comey’s leak triggered the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller to investigate Trump. Mueller’s investigation generated endless allegations and controversies and helped Democrats capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. In April 2019, after two years of media frenzies, Mueller finally admitted he found no evidence to prosecute Trump or his campaign officials for colluding with Russia in the 2016 campaign. In July 2019, Mueller testified to Congress on his investigation and the nation was shocked to see Mueller looking mentally clueless time and again under questioning.

It remains to be seen whether the media can restore Mueller’s halo after his death. But whitewashing Mueller’s record will simply invite more FBI depredations of Americans’ rights and liberties.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 21:25

Chicago Approves 19% Hotel Tax To Fund Tourism Push

The Chicago City Council has approved a plan to boost tourism marketing by raising hotel taxes. Under Ordinance 2026-0022544, the total tax rate on hotel rooms will increase from 17.5% to 19% in downtown and nearby areas, according to Fox News.

The higher rate will apply to hotels with more than 100 rooms that choose to participate.

The report says that alongside the tax increase, the council created a Tourism Improvement District (TID) to fund Choose Chicago, the city’s tourism marketing organization. Revenue will support promotional campaigns and help cover bids for major events and conventions.

Chicago is already pursuing the Democratic National Convention, which requires a $1 million bid. The city previously hosted the event in August 2024 and is competing with several other cities.

Mayor Brandon Johnson called Chicago a leading destination for tourism and large-scale events, saying the city will continue investing in growth and development. Choose Chicago CEO Kristen Reynolds described the move as a “transformative moment” that will strengthen marketing efforts and attract more visitors.

Some critics, however, argue the 19% hotel tax — among the highest in the country — could make travel to Chicago more expensive and potentially discourage tourism.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/23/2026 - 21:00