Trump Jr.: 1789 Capital's "Patriotic Capitalism" Will Unleash America First Prosperity

After years of relentless lawfare and debankings, it would have seemed unthinkable for Donald Trump Jr. to emerge as a venture capitalist backing some of the world's most innovative startups. And yet, here we are.

At the onset of his father’s second term, Trump Jr. joined 1789 Capital as a partner. The firm, co-founded in 2022 by investment banker Omeed Malik, Republican megadonor Rebekah Mercer and American Greatness publisher Chris Buskirk, has staked out territory as an explicit alternative to the environmental, social and governance investing that dominated Wall Street in recent years. Its pitch: back American companies driving what it calls "IEG" - innovation, entrepreneurship and growth - while sidestepping the diversity mandates and climate commitments that became corporate orthodoxy.

At the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh on Wednesday, Malik and Trump Jr. detailed a portfolio heavy on artificial intelligence and defense technology, sectors experiencing a funding surge amid heightened geopolitical tensions and Pentagon modernization efforts, CAPITAL reports. The timing has proved fortuitous, as defense-tech startups raised a record $33 billion in 2024, according to PitchBook.

Among 1789 Capital's holdings are Anduril Industries, the autonomous weapons maker valued at $30.5 billion that has positioned itself as a nimble alternative to traditional defense contractors; Hadrian, which manufactures precision parts for military applications; and a suite of Elon Musk's companies, including SpaceX, xAI and Neuralink.

Additionally, 1789 Capital recently joined a funding round for Vulcan Elements, a rare-earths magnet producer that has secured Pentagon contracts. The investment reflects a broader push—echoed in administration policy—to rebuild domestic supply chains for critical minerals that China has long dominated, controlling roughly 70% of global rare-earth production. The firm also invested in Base, an Austin-based energy startup co-founded by Michael Dell's son, Zach Dell, that focuses on residential battery storage and grid management solutions to Texas residents.

“We want to complement all the great work that the Trump administration is doing within the private sector,” Malik said, while Trump Jr. cast the effort in more political terms.

"What we want is a generational shift towards these America first policies both, in government and in the private sector, to unleash the freedom and prosperity that all Americans deserve," the president’s son said.

The firm's growth has accelerated since President Donald Trump returned to office in January. Securities and Exchange Commission filings from recent months showed assets under management approaching $900 million. PitchBook estimates place the figure closer to $1.25 billion, while the New York Times reports that assets now total roughly $2 billion—more than doubling in less than a year.

During the panel discussion, Malik and Trump Jr. appeared to confirm a Bloomberg report that 1789 Capital was seeking to raise a fund for investing in South Florida real estate.

“It's actually part of a broader vision,” Malik began when asked about the plans. "1789 will be a multi-strategy asset manager and we have the growth equity fund, we have a small situations fund and the next thing we were going to do is real estate.”

"One is certainly a macro or political assessment of the situation that I referenced earlier, which is there will continue to be mass migration from the northeast to the sun belt, including Florida,” Malik said. “We want to be able to have a real estate development fund that's going to take advantage of that migration as well as the fact that a lot of the sun belt has not been zoned or built properly. That's a huge opportunity in that area. Chicago, LA, and New York which are on the decline."

"The other is if you think about all the things we're investing in, all the innovation, all the AI, all the tech, you can't do that without infrastructure,” the 1789 Capital co-founder added. "The other aspect that's very synergistic with our portfolio is making sure that you can do those data centers, the hyperscalers, and that's a thing that we're going to invest in in our own portfolio."

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 15:05

We Are Drifting To A 2-G World, One US-centric, Another Chinese

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Think a 2-G, not a G-2 world

The Fed briefly made the market headline this morning after doing what was expected - cutting 25bps to 4%; and what markets had wanted – stopping QT; but also what markets hadn’t expected and didn’t want – calling into question how much further rates will fall. As such, markets, who netted a peak-to-trough $6.5 trillion in Fed balance sheet expansion in the ‘it’s just an asset swap that will be reversed’ QE > QT > (QE?) cycle, were not happy, though we see 25bps cuts in December (if not a done deal), and March, June, and September 2026: see here for more. While looking at that $6.5trn, consider the unironic Washington Post op-ed that ‘This Supreme Court decision [on the Fed’s Cook] could basically guarantee higher inflation’.

As some focus on how politics and central banks can fuse one way, Europe displayed another. ECB President Lagarde repeated a call for the EU to move to majority voting, following former ECB President then unelected Italian PM Draghi, and Bank of Italy Governor Panetta. Without taking a stance, is this in the ECB’s remit other than it indirectly involves the economy? What would markets think if Powell got involved over House redistricting? Regardless, it underlines the pressure for structural, market-moving change in Europe.

In the geopolitical world the EU is struggling to keep up with, Russia tested a nuclear torpedo that can flood cities with “radioactive tsunamis”; the US will undertake nuclear tests in response to those of others; Western intel said Iran is rearming despite UN sanctions, with China’s help; Venezuela’s “creaking military” is preparing for US strikes; Brazil saw dozens die in Rio in police-drug gang clashes, which included the Ukraine-war tactic of drone-dropped bombs; and the US plans a "show of force" against “Chinese aggression” in the South China Sea.

In related geoeconomics, Nvidia hit a $5trn market cap - as its CEO just said it doesn’t matter if the US or China wins the global AI race(!); the BOJ ignored US Treasury Secretary’s Bessent advice and left rates on hold again at 0.5% with no more dissenters than the previous two; Saudi Arabia will refocus its $925bn sovereign wealth fund from real estate towards critical minerals, logistics, and AI, which sounds US-linked; Trump said South Korea will build a nuclear submarine in the US, transferring its highest defense tech, as he struck a deal to lower auto tariffs to 15% from 25% in return for $150bn for US shipbuilding, $20bn annual FDI for a decade, and major energy purchases; and Oslo reported Chinese made EV buses can be disabled remotely via software updates, allowing direct access to their battery.

Yet the Atlantic notes as of now, ‘The US Is on Track to Lose a War With China’ as “modern warfare is decided by production capacity and technological mastery, not by individual valor”; new US rare earths processing tech may help it leapfrog China, as the quest for rare earth elements is sparking a Texas mining revival; Australia’s Lynas will build a heavy rare earth plant in Malaysia; but Malaysia, which just signed such a rare earths deal with the US, will only export processed products; as three Indian companies received the first set of licenses for importing rare earth magnets from China – which cannot be used for defence purposes.

The latter underlines Europe may not be able to rearm either, whatever funds it allocates to it, unless it develops alternative supply, with a parallel issue threatening the chips need for auto production. For chips, that will take time to ramp up; for rare earths, far more so given Europe lacks key resources, which the FT just noticed in ‘Europe and the curse of geography.

Meanwhile, Beijing is lobbying Europe not to side with the US as France’s parliament voted to raise their tech tax, potentially setting up a clash with Trump, and Macron called for social media that won’t declare its bias to be banned, perhaps setting up a clash with VP Vance.

Summarising the zeitgeist, the Economist pens ‘A letter to investors from the White House Opportunities Fund’, on “How the shift to state capitalism is panning out for America LLC.” It’s rather early to be making that call – but the description of the new (geo)political economy is not, as we called as imminent immediately that Trump was re-elected. Indeed, underlining how wrongly that is still being read by some, @Eurobriefing notes: “Remember the investment flows from the US to Europe – after Trump’s tariffs and the election of Merz? It’s all reversing now. US investors are slowing waking up to a political reality of political perma-gridlock in Europe. And Europeans investors are starting to realise the macroeconomic gains from AI are far more likely to arise in the US and China than in Europe.”

Of course, all the preceding news was just a warm-up for today’s critical Trump – Xi meeting, before which Trump posted, “THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY!”, worrying the other 193. The early words in front of the media in Busan were win-win: Xi stated China’s development does not contradict the vison of “Make America Great Again.” However, as China expert Matt Pottinger asks, ‘Is Trump Getting Played by Xi?’, and “If so, America’s agrarian past may be its future” --something I pointed out was the trend in relative import-export rations by sector in 2017’s The Great Game of Global Trade-- tariffs, fentanyl, AI chips - where the Chair of the House Select Committee on China states selling Nvidia Blackwell chips to China would be “akin to giving Iran weapons grade uranium”, rare earths, soybeans, Taiwan, and even Russia-Ukraine were all rumored to be in the mix – if you aren’t at the table, you are likely on it.

Trump said it was “amazing” and “outstanding” meeting, and agreed a rolling one-year deal that can be extended where: “tremendous” US soybean purchases will “start immediately”; China “agreed to work to stop fentanyl,” so a 10% US tariff reduction has gone into effect, but “many other tariffs remain”; USTR Greer said China will not be imposing rare earth controls – but does that only apply to the US?; Blackwell AI chips were not discussed, though China is going to talk about others with Nvidia; US nuclear tests are aimed at others; Taiwan was not discussed; and Trump will visit China in April. We are still waiting for official readouts, but this seems a short-term ceasefire, not any long-term settlement - and no TACOs were on the menu.

So, ‘stability’ until April on one front – unless China doesn’t keep its end of the bargain, in which case tariffs go up (110%?). Meanwhile, the US will target onshoring and rare earths while China targets high-end chips. That, and other developments, still say that rather than a US-China G-2 CoDominium, we are drifting to a 2-G world, one US-centric, another Chinese.

In what would otherwise be major news today, Trump conceded that it’s “pretty clear” that he can’t tun for a third term, which would be actual news to Steve Bannon.

UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering a 2% increase in income tax in the upcoming budget, as she joins the list of government ministers having to alert the official ethics adviser after an “inadvertent mistake” with a London property licence and the rental of her family home; and

The liberal D66 party looks to have won the same number of seats as the right wing PVV in the Dutch election with 97.7% of the vote counted, and D66 leader Jettens looks in pole position to be the next Prime Minister; he will inherit the Nexperia, rare earths, Russia-Ukraine, and EU-US issues as he looks to build closer cooperation with Europe - just as the EU may be set for major changes(?)

To conclude, the Fed cut as expected but could now see a pause; the Trump-Xi meeting also saw a tactical pause. Both were welcome, but neither mean much in the bigger picture

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 14:45

Oil, Gas, & "The End Of Climate Catastrophism"

Oil stocks remain some of the cheapest relative to the broader market so we figured its time to discuss why.

In last night’s ZH Debate, we pulled together top energy analysts representing three different views, hosted by friend of zerohedge and former energy trader Erik Townsend, a true expert in the field and the host of the Macro Voices podcast.

In the bullish corner, Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten has over 30 years on the Street analyzing energy for firms like Goldman Sachs. For the bearish case, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone is a commodity specialist with equal time doing high-level institutional research. Lastly, taking a middle-road outlook, Paul Sankey of Sankey Research remains bearish through winter, turning bullish by February. Sankey is former MD at Deutsche Bank.

Here are the key moments for those short on time but we highly recommend anyone with money in the market listen to the full debate:

Bearish Target: $40 per barrel

Blooberg’s McGlone opened with the bearish case: “WTI crude oil is down about 16% this year… every trend is lower prices.” He called it “an extreme bear market,” adding that stabilization “requires the stock market [to] stabilize and at least go up.”

Equities are, of course, making new all-time highs by the week, which McGlone worries makes them vulnerable to corrections. “If we get a normal 10 to 20% correction,” he warned, “that’ll easily get to my $40 a barrel.”

Oil is not alone compared to corn, soybeans, and wheat. But according to McGlone,“crude oil is more elastic than it was any time in the past,” referring to 

pic.twitter.com/B8bQYkOKGJ

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) October 30, 2025

Long-term Bull Case: Climate insanity is done

Murti dismissed the idea of a “delayed transition” away from fossil fuels as “absolute nonsense,” arguing that while new technologies could one day threaten oil demand, “we do not know what they are today.” 

He emphasized the global inequality of energy development—“one eighth of the world being rich and the other seven eighths” still striving to catch up—and said that the recent Bill Gates flip flop marked “the end of climate catastrophism as a mainstream thing.”

pic.twitter.com/zcCLYRuUhc

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) October 30, 2025

The “Horrendous Energy Intensive” AI Boom

Sankey warned that artificial intelligence could become an “energy black hole,” as it becomes ever more ubiquitous. “The more efficient AI becomes, the more you're going to use AI and by extension, the more energy you're going to have to use,” Sankey said.

This trend could continue “until the energy cost gets too high, potentially the environmental costs get too high, and you have to cease and desist.”

…while that may cause an energy crisis, it seems hard to deny it’s bullish for oil. 

pic.twitter.com/X1f3gxJlNA

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) October 30, 2025
 

Watch the full debate below on your preferred platform:

https://t.co/AxKTcoWPoO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 29, 2025

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 14:05

Rising Electricity Prices To Make Winter More Costly For Most US Households

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

As the October-through-March winter “heating season” unfolds, a spate of forecasts indicates that the cost of electricity will double, if not triple, the projected 2–3 percent overall 2026 inflation rate and, regardless of fuel source, make it more expensive to stay warm this winter.

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Oct. 15 Winter Fuels Outlook 2025–2026, projected that a nationwide “average” 5-percent increase in electricity costs in 2026 will raise winter heating costs by 4 percent and even more for the 42 percent of U.S. households that use electricity for heating.

That 5 percent hike in retail electricity exceeds overall 2026 inflation projections ranging from 2.2 to 3.2 percent.

Data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index through August documents overall inflation of 2.9 percent over the previous 12 months, with electricity costs increasing 3.1 percent, a gap forecasters project will widen in 2026.

S&P Global, which based previous models on 2 percent inflation, now anticipates that overall prices will increase by 3 percent “largely driven by ... tariffs on consumer prices.”

That forecast aligns with the 3.1 percent inflation Dow Jones consensus and Deloitte’s 3.2 percent projection, but is higher than others, including J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s expectation that 2026 inflation will “drift down” from 2025’s “peak” of 2.8 percent.

Bankrate, documenting 24.3 percent “cumulative inflation” since 2020, projects 2.7 percent inflation in 2026, similar to the Congressional Budget Office’s 2.7 percent forecast, with expectations for it to fall to 2.2 percent in 2027 and 2028.

The Office of Management and Budget, as of September, was among outliers, sticking with its 2.2 percent inflation forecast, “consistent with reaching the Federal Reserve’s target.”

With so many inflation qualifications, forecasting how much it will cost to heat homes this winter is equally tentative, but among certainties is that more than 100 gas and electric companies across 41 states raised rates in 2025 or plan to do so in 2026, according to a September Center for American Progress report.

While the EIA projects “winter temperatures and residential energy consumption to be similar to last winter,” electricity costs will still be “higher than last winter across the country” by about 5 percent.

Others are projecting higher increases, including a forecast 7.6 percent hike in “average” electricity prices by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association in its Sept. 19 Winter Outlook 2025–2026.

“Electricity prices are rising more than twice as fast as the overall inflation rate due to utility investment in transmission and distribution systems, [and] the rising cost of natural gas,” the association said in a statement accompanying the study, citing a 2024 Edison Electric Institute report that calculates that ratepayers are financing $1.1 trillion in grid updates planned by 2029.

As noted by the EIA in its October short-term energy outlook, projected electricity costs for the upcoming winter vary according to where a consumer lives, what infrastructure improvement surcharges are being levied, the weather, and the type of fuel, with natural gas, electricity, propane, and oil used to heat 96 percent of homes in the United States.

Lower Natural Gas Forecast

The EIA’s outlook uses different weather models in calculating electricity-use and heating-cost projections to produce a base forecast and alternates modeling 10 percent colder or 10 percent warmer winters. It assumes “this winter will be slightly milder than the last winter across much of the country, especially in the Northeast.”

Winter energy expenditures also vary by heating fuel.

“Homes heating with natural gas will pay about the same amount for natural gas as they did last winter, but homes heating with electricity will pay more,” the EIA projects. “Homes heating with propane or heating oil will pay less than they did last winter.”

More than 46 percent of homes in the United States burn natural gas in furnaces, making it the nation’s most common space-heating fuel, according to the administration.

The EIA’s outlook notes mid-October natural gas inventories in the United States were about 5 percent above the previous five-year October averages.

“Going into winter,” it states, “prices are expected to increase as natural gas exports increase and storage withdrawals outpace injections,” projecting September’s $3 per million British thermal units average will top $4 in early 2026, but still be “almost 50 cents” lower than its August forecast.

“Our lower price expectation reflects our forecast that natural gas production will be higher than we forecast last month, leading to more natural gas in inventory through the winter than previously expected,” it said, predicting any increases in natural gas prices will be offset by “slightly higher” production and “slightly milder temperatures” reducing natural gas consumption by 2 percent.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projects consumers will pay 8 percent more for natural gas during the October-to-March “heating season,” with average costs increasing from $639 to $693.

Higher wholesale gas prices and strong liquified natural gas (LNG) export demand are responsible for the price hikes, NEADA states.

The Luxembourg-based Economy Forecast Agency projects Henry Hub natural gas prices will creep above $4 per million units by December, but median averages would dip below $4 in 2026 until October, similar to the EIA’s forecast.

The EIA projects lower natural gas prices in the Pacific West and little change across the Intermountain West. NEADA forecasts a 13.5 percent increase in natural gas prices across the West.

Natural gas consumers in the South will see at least a 3 percent reduction in 2026 costs from 2025, the EIA projects, and as much as a 5 percent reduction if a milder winter unfolds. NEADA forecasts a 5.3 percent increase across the region.

The Northeast will see stable, if not lower, natural gas prices as Mountain View Pipeline reaches capacity, the EIA projects, while NEADA forecasts an 8.1 percent increase in the mid-Atlantic and New England.

“The Midwest is the only region where we expect a slight increase in natural gas bills this winter in our base case,” the EIA projects. “Winter household natural gas bills in the Midwest are forecast to average about $610 in our base case, or 2% more than last winter.”

The Midwest is expected to experience a 16.4 percent jump in natural gas prices, growing from $600 last winter to $698 for the coming winter, NEADA counters.

A propane holding tank at Blue Flame Propane Co. in Worth, Michigan, in December 2022. Steven Kovac/Epoch Times

Higher Power Cost Projections

Electricity is the second-most common heating method in the United States, increasing from warming 35 percent of the nation’s homes in 2010 to more than 42 percent in 2024, the EIA documents in an Oct. 10 analysis.

Electricity is reliant on a fuel source, so how much it costs is influenced by market fluctuations. The EIA documents that 40 percent of the nation’s electricity is generated by natural gas—down from 43 percent in 2023—25 percent by renewables (solar, wind, hydro, biomass), 18 percent by nuclear energy, and 14 percent by coal.

“Higher winter expenditures for homes heating with electricity are primarily driven by higher retail electricity prices,” the EIA states, basing projections on an average 5 percent increase in retail electricity.

The administration acknowledges electricity-for-heating estimates are “muted because the space-heating portion of electricity bills is relatively low” when factored with “water heating, cooking, or clothes drying.”

“The effect of higher electricity prices ... is slightly offset by our expectation that residential electricity consumption will decrease by 1% because of milder weather this winter,” especially in the South, so while overall electricity prices will increase by 5 percent, the electricity cost of space heating will be slightly lower, the EIA calculates.

“Winter residential electricity expenditures in the Midwest and South regions increase by a similar rate as the national average, 4%, despite slightly lower electricity consumption,” it projects. “Expenditures in the Northeast and West regions are expected to increase by 3% this winter.”

The Midwest could be hit hardest with an estimated 19.7 percent increase in electricity costs—an average of around $1,500 for this coming winter, compared with $1,250 for the 2024–2025 winter—NEADA forecasts, with its estimate nearly $220 more than the EIA’s $1,280 tabulation.

The EIA forecasts Northeast consumers will see 2026 electricity costs increase by 6 percent, with NEADA forecasting homes heating with electricity in the Northeast will see costs increase by 7.2 percent and spend $1,520 this winter to stay warm.

The EIA projects electricity costs in the Pacific West to increase by 2 percent, “the lowest expected increase” in any region, and by 6 percent in the Rocky Mountain West, while NEADA forecasts that “the West will see utility prices grow at a projected 18 percent for electricity.”

NEADA maintains the South could see a 21.4 percent hike in winter electricity costs. EIA projects 4 to 6 percent increases in electricity-for-heating across the region.

Propane heats about 5 percent of the nation’s homes, EIA calculates, and is “more common in the upper Midwest and Northeast.”

The administration forecasts a 7 percent decline in propane prices this winter in tandem with sliding crude oil prices, while NEADA projects that propane gas users can expect to save up to 5 percent during the colder months, with average prices sliding from $1,316 to $1,250.

Oil heats about 3 percent of homes in the United States, mostly in the Northeast, where 80 percent of homes use it for heat, according to EIA.

“We expect these homes will spend 8 percent less on heating oil this winter,” it projects, while NEADA anticipates that homes heated by oil “may see a decline of 4 percent this winter—dropping on average from $1,515 to $1,455.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 13:45

Putin's Offer To Extend The New START Is A Goodwill Gesture To Trump

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Putin offered in late September to extend the New START, which is the last arms control pact between Russia and the US, for another year following its expiry in early February.

He then reaffirmed his proposal in early October, emphasizing that there’s still time to extend this crucial agreement if the US has the political will, which appears to be the case given Trump’s recent praise of it as “a good idea”. Regardless of whatever happens, Putin’s offer is a goodwill gesture to Trump, which will now be explained.

For background, Putin announced Russia’s suspension of the New START in February 2023 in response to NATO’s involvement in Ukraine’s drone attacks against his country’s strategic aviation bases several months prior, which was analyzed here as the right thing to do at the right time. Nearly a year later in January 2024, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov then declared that talks on this issue won’t resume till the Ukrainian Conflict ends, arguing that doing otherwise would put Russia at a disadvantage.

With that in mind, it was expected at the start of the year that “Mutual Interest In Resuming Arms Control Talks Can Speed Up The Ukrainian Peace Process”, yet that didn’t come to pass with Russian-US tensions escalating shortly after mid-August’s Anchorage Summit. Nevertheless, Putin still publicly praised Trump for working towards peace and proposed extending New START for another year, thus representing a change in Russia’s position as articulated by Lavrov over 18 months earlier.

Goodwill gestures are meant to make the recipient trust whoever does them with the expectation that they’ll then be reciprocated for improving their relations. That doesn’t always happen though as proven by Russia’s goodwill gesture of withdrawing from Kiev during spring 2022’s peace talks being seen as weakness by Ukraine, the UK, and Poland, the last two of which then convinced Ukraine to keep fighting. The possibility thus exists that Trump might perceive Putin’s latest goodwill gesture in the same way.

It’s crucial to mention that Putin reassured his people that Russia can ensure its national security even in the absence of extending New START and that any unilateral moves by the US to further upset the strategic balance between their countries would render this pact null and void. What he probably had in mind was Trump’s “Golden Dome” initiative, previously known as the “Iron Dome”, for reviving Reagan’s “Star Wars” plan for space-based interceptors and likely secret space-based offensive missiles too.

Taking his trade deals as precedent, he always wants the US to maintain the dominant position in any “compromise”, so he might either insist on continuing to build the “Golden Dome” despite this ruining any New START extension or secretly continuing to do so even if he says he won’t. If the CIA assesses that Russia might transfer cutting-edge nuclear weapons technology to China and/or North Korea in that case, and that this would in turn jeopardize US national security interests, then he might reconsider.

Putin’s goodwill gesture to Trump of offering to extend New START is therefore a pivotal moment in their ties since it’ll allow Russia to learn whether the US is serious about compromising. If Trump doesn’t ditch the “Golden Dome” or dupes Putin about freezing work on it, then even though the new Burevestnik missile could still piece through it, Russia might still opt to transfer this tech to its nuclear-armed allies in order to raise the costs to the US of rejecting Russia’s proposal so that it doesn’t reject future ones too.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 13:05

EBay Shares Plunge Most Since 2005 As Soft Outlook Overshadows Solid Earnings

EBay shares plunged as much as 16% on Thursday, the biggest intraday drop since January 2005, after the company issued disappointing fourth-quarter guidance. The outlook for adjusted earnings and operating margins came in below Bloomberg Consensus estimates, overshadowing what had been solid third-quarter earnings. 

EBay delivered a strong third quarter, beating estimates across the board. However, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said investors were focused on the disappointing fourth-quarter adjusted earnings-per-share forecast, which could "reflect consumer and tariff uncertainty." 

Snapshot of Third-Quarter Results (via Bloomberg): 

Adjusted EPS: $1.36, up from $1.19 a year ago and above the $1.34 estimate.

Net Revenue: $2.82 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, topping the $2.73 billion consensus.

Active Buyers: 134 million, up 0.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 135.1 million.

Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $20.11 billion, up 9.8% year-over-year, beating the $19.37 billion estimate.

• U.S. GMV: $9.87 billion, up 13% year-over-year, versus $9.36 billion expected.

• International GMV: $10.23 billion, up 7% year-over-year, compared with $10.06 billion estimated.

Free Cash Flow: $803 million, up 24% year-over-year, exceeding the $688.3 million estimate.

The spotlight was on eBay's fourth-quarter forecast, which guided adjusted EPS between $1.31 and $1.36, missing the Bloomberg Consensus of $1.39 and signaling margin pressure ahead. The online auction platform projected net revenue between $2.83 billion and $2.89 billion, roughly in line with the $2.8 billion estimate, pointing to modest top-line growth but a softer profit outlook ahead of Black Friday and Christmas holiday shopping season. 

Full-Year Forecast:

• Sees adjusted EPS from continuing operations $5.42 to $5.47, estimate $5.46

• Sees net revenue $10.97 billion to $11.03 billion, estimate $10.85 billion

"Given solid 3Q trends, we think eBay's 4Q guidance appears to be set too low to reflect consumer and tariff uncertainty," Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote in a note, adding that the outlook for fourth quarter adjusted operating margin "missed consensus as its strategic investments may weigh on results."

Stifel analyst said earnings were solid but this report was "overshadowed by 4Q guidance of GMV growth decelerating to +4-6% y/y (FXN), citing tough comps and the full impact of the de minimis changes." 

The dismal outlook sent shares crashing - the most in an intraday session since January 20, 2005 - down 14% by early afternoon in New York. 

$100 handle has been rejected for the second time. 

Double top?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 12:45

Mystery Blast At Russian Artillery Ammo Plant Results In 23 Dead

There was a massive explosion of unknown cause earlier this month at a military factory in central Russia's Chelyabinsk region resulting in a high casualty rate. After many days of a search and rescue operation the death toll has risen to 23 at the Plastmass plant, Russian media has indicated in a fresh update on casualties.

The plant produces explosives and artillery ammo for the military, so the resulting disaster was extensive and significant. It ranks as among the highest death tolls in terms of a single blast incident at a military factory in Russia throughout the course of the Ukraine war.

Aftermath of Plastmass plant explosion, via X

An entire building at the plant was completely leveled in the blast, resulting in people being buried under the rubble, and making rescue efforts extremely difficult.

"The final list of victims of the tragedy includes 23 people," the regional government confirmed on Telegram, revising their earlier toll of 13 dead and 10 missing. Rescue efforts lasted a week, which involved painstaking efforts of combing through rubble.

A formal investigation has opened into potential industrial safety violations. Given the ongoing large-scale drone attacks out Ukraine, there was initial speculation the plant was hit by drones; however, authorities have pushed back that this was caused by a drone attack.

Authorities have pushed back on it being a drone attack, but this remains a possibility: 

Reports about Ukrainian drone attack in the Russian town of Kopyesk, Chelyabinsk Oblast, located over 1,600km from the border with Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/OWY3LhQ7Lf

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) October 22, 2025

The plant is all the way east in the Urals, which does make a drone attack at that range unlikely - though not impossible. A drone would have to have traverse at least half the land mass of Russia to make it there.

Western media sources have authenticated some of the video which emerged in the aftermath. "BBC Verify has located two videos of the explosion. One is CCTV showing the moment of the blast, captured around 3km (1.9 miles) from the sitem" BBC documented. "The other shows the fireball filmed from a car driving down an adjacent road." But there doesn't seem to have emerged any close-up footage of the moment of the explosion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 12:05

Trump's Lawyers Seek Dismissal Of President's Criminal Conviction

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Lawyers for President Donald Trump asked an appeals court in New York state this week to throw out Trump’s criminal conviction for falsifying business records.

Evidence in the case was insufficient to convict Trump, his lawyers told the New York State Supreme Court Appellate Division in a brief. They also said the court had wrongly ruled against the theory that presidential immunity means that official acts cannot be used against a president.

“In addition to all this overwhelming error, the trial was conducted by a judge who refused to recuse himself despite having made political contributions to President Trump’s electoral opponents and despite having disqualifying family conflicts,” the lawyers wrote.

“For each of these independent reasons, President Trump’s conviction must be set aside.”

Trump, at the time a candidate for president, was convicted in 2024 of falsifying business records.

After Trump won the 2024 election, Justice Juan Merchan of the New York State Supreme Court handed down a sentence with no jail time or fines, citing “legal protections afforded to the office of the president of the United States.”

Merchan, who was overseeing the case, had previously turned away Trump’s arguments against evidence in the case and assertions that the president was protected by presidential immunity.

Lawyers for Trump wrote in the new brief that jurors had improperly heard testimony about official acts by Trump, including official statements that he made on social media and alleged discussions between Trump and the attorney general about enforcing federal campaign regulations.

They pointed to a U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2024, in which justices ruled that presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts.

The ruling states, “If official conduct for which the President is immune may be scrutinized to help secure his conviction, even on charges that purport to be based only on his unofficial conduct, the ‘intended effect’ of immunity would be defeated.”

A spokesperson for Trump told news outlets in a statement on Oct. 28: “The Supreme Court’s historic decision on Immunity, the Federal and New York State Constitutions, and other established legal precedent mandate that this meritless hoax be immediately overturned and dismissed.

“President Trump will keep defeating Democrat weaponization at every turn as he focuses on his singular mission to Make America Great Again.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:45

OpenAI Reportedly Targets $1 Trillion Valuation As IPO Window Opens In 2027

Earlier this week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman addressed the topic of taking the chatbot maker public during a livestream. He said that while there are no concrete plans or set timeline, "it's fair to say an IPO is the most likely path for us." 

After Altman's comments, Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the matter, that OpenAI is indeed preparing for an IPO, with a securities filing expected in late 2026 and a market debut in 2027 at a potential valuation of $1 trillion. 

Here's more from the report:

OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising $60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.

While an OpenAI spokesperson maintains that "an IPO is not our focus," this week's restructuring news, which reduced the company's dependence on Microsoft and shifted governance under the OpenAI Foundation, only suggests preparation for public markets, as it paves the way for OpenAI to use public stock for large-scale acquisitions and capital-intensive infrastructure projects to support Altman's plan to invest trillions in AI development.

OpenAI has an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $20 billion, though losses are mounting. There was a report at the start of the week that said the Microsoft CFO internally warned about Altman's data center spending, which could unleash data center overcapacity.

Related: 

• OpenAI-Microsoft Friction Grows As ChatGPT App Growth Slows, Data Center Buildout Risks Overcapacity

OpenAI was most recently valued at $500 billion, with major investors including Microsoft (27% stake), SoftBank, Thrive Capital, and Abu Dhabi's MGX.

However, the potential IPO window for OpenAI comes at a time when Goldman analysts forecast data center peak occupancy will begin to weaken (read here), an indication that more supply will come online amid the massive wave of data center buildouts expected next year (read here).

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:25

Obamacare Premiums Set To Soar Ahead Of Open Enrollment

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Premiums for people buying health insurance through Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces are soaring ahead of the start of the open enrollment period, new data show.

Premiums for people who are buying insurance for 2026 in state-run marketplaces are rising 17 percent, the health nonprofit KFF said on Oct. 28. Premiums for enrollees using Healthcare.gov, the federally-run marketplace, are spiking on average 30 percent.

The enrollment period for the ACA—former President Barack Obama’s health care law, commonly known as Obamacare—will open on Nov. 1 for most marketplaces.

Factors behind the increasing premiums include higher hospital costs and more people using weight loss drugs called GLP-1s, KFF said.

The increases do not take into account the impact that the expiration of enhanced subsidies would have, KFF said. Congress approved enhanced subsidies for Obamacare in 2021, and later extended them through the end of 2025.

Democrats want a continuation of the subsidies included in legislation to end the government shutdown, but Republicans have said they will not negotiate on the matter until Congress reopens the government.

Most Americans are insured through their employers, but 24 million obtained health insurance through a marketplace during the 2025 enrollment period, which ended in January. Seventeen million obtained insurance through Healthcare.gov.

The average monthly premium in 2025 was $619 before subsidies, or tax credits, and $113 a month after the credits.

More than 90 percent of people who bought insurance received one of the subsidies, which have been available since marketplaces opened in 2014 to households with annual incomes between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That ceiling was removed in 2021.

The new KFF analysis was based in part on data released on Tuesday by the Department of Health and Human Services, which started letting people who utilize Healthcare.gov go window shopping for insurance.

The average premium for 2026 after subsidies is projected to be $50 per month, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a division of the department, said in a fact sheet. Similar to 2025, the tax credits are projected to cover 91 percent of premiums for the cheapest plans.

The fact sheet did not mention price increases or the looming expiration of enhanced subsidies. The division did not respond to a request for comment.

States that run their own marketplaces previously released data showing insurance prices are increasing and warning that they will rise further if Congress does not extend the enhanced credits.

Most Colorado residents who buy insurance will see an average premium increase of 101 percent, the Colorado Division of Insurance said. It estimated that about 75,000 residents will no longer buy insurance due to the jump.

Washington state officials estimated that net premiums would increase 65 percent for recipients of the enhanced subsidies if they end up expiring.

Justin Zimmerman, commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance, said in a statement that without the subsidies, people “will be confronted by startlingly higher prices for coverage.”

If the credits do expire, monthly premiums will soar by 114 percent on average, according to KFF.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:05

North Korea Flexes With Missile Test While Trump Tours Asia

North Korea continues flexing its military might this week, but this time notably at a moment President Donald Trump is making stops in several Asian nations, including a visit to South Korea, where he's set to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.

On Tuesday, North Korea declared a successful test of a sea-to-surface cruise missile. It marked the second such missile test by Pyongyang in two weeks. Some sources have dubbed it as a 'strategic' test, indicating the missile was nuclear-capable.

"Important successes are being made in putting our nuclear forces on a practical basis… for steadily expanding the sphere of application of the war deterrents," Pak Jong Chon, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, said of the test.

"We should steadily update our combat capability. In particular, it is our responsible mission and duty to ceaselessly toughen the nuclear combat posture," he added.

King Jong-Un's military had fired off short-range missiles on Oct. 22 - which importantly was the first significant arms test in five months.

Earlier this week President Trump indicated he'd be willing to meet with Kim if Pyongyang reached out and was willing, but this offer has been met with silence.

Instead Kim has been increasingly deepening his relations with Russia. DPRK troops have even died fighting on behalf of Russia in the Ukraine war.

On Tuesday, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow - with a subsequent North Korean government statement describing the talks occurred at a "time when the strategic and alliance character of the relations between the two countries has been further consolidated and their might and vitality have been fully demonstrated under the outstanding and seasoned guidance of the heads of state of the two countries."

⚡️ North Korea tests ‘STRATEGIC cruise missile’ — Yonhap

Launch comes as Trump heads to South Korea

Missile flew over Yellow Sea, ‘DESTROYED’ target pic.twitter.com/b97NbedEHk

— RT (@RT_com) October 28, 2025

"The Russian side expressed full support for the DPRK side’s efforts and measures to firmly defend the state’s present position, security interests and sovereign rights," the foreign ministry added.

"And the DPRK side expressed invariable sympathy and support for all the measures taken by the Russian side to remove the root cause of the Ukrainian dispute and attain the strategic goal of special military operations," the statement continued, reaffirming support for Putin's 'Special Military Operation'.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 10:45

Google Executive Admits Company Made 'Mistakes' While Handling Complaints Of Election Fraud

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Google executive said the company made “mistakes” while handling complaints of election fraud during a U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation hearing held Oct. 29.

Google's Government Affairs and Public Policy Centers of Excellence head Markham Erickson was questioned on Capitol Hill on Oct. 29, 2025. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who serves as the committee chairman, showed screenshots of a YouTube video that allegedly highlighted how former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Donald Trump both voiced concerns about election fraud and then asked Markham Erickson, who leads Google’s Government Affairs and Public Policy Centers of Excellence, why the video was taken down.

“YouTube deleted it, blocked it and gave the creator a strike, a step toward deleting his entire channel,” Cruz said. ”Why would you remove a journalist’s record of the claims of election fraud from both democrats and republicans?”

The Epoch Times has been unable to confirm specifically which YouTube video, owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, Inc., was being discussed during the hearing and has reached out to Cruz’s press office for a copy of the screenshots that were mentioned.

Erickson responded: “We have election policies and we’ve had election policies for a long time to ensure that the most important thing that citizens can do, which is to vote, they can find relevant and useful information on our platforms. Where to vote, for example. What time the ...”

Cruz interrupted Erickson and reiterated that his question was regarding a blocked YouTube video that discussed claims of election fraud made by presidential candidates from both parties, not voting.

“Then YouTube reversed that decision and unblocked it and you can see on the right [side of the posterboard], instead you decided not to block it, but simply to demonetize it,” Cruz said. “It is Google’s testimony that you regret nothing. Is that right?”

Erickson said that after the states had certified the 2020 election, YouTube adopted a policy to take down content that claimed there was “widespread fraud, or errors or glitches.”

“When the chance of real-world harm had dissipated, we removed that policy,” Erickson said.

Erickson did not comment on how the YouTube video allegedly shared Clinton’s criticisms regarding the 2016 election.

The 2016 Democratic nominee previously alleged the election had voter suppression, voter purging, and hacking. She even called Trump an “illegitimate president” during an interview with CBS News in September 2019.

When Cruz asked Erickson whether Google wanted to apologize or express regret for how it handled complaints of election fraud.

“We make mistakes,” Erickson responded.

“Name one,” Cruz said.

“We make those mistakes, Senator,” Erickson replied, without giving details.

“Name one,” Cruz said again. “Like you’re saying, was this a mistake? Yes or no?”

The Google executive reiterated that decisions were made “independently.”

“At the time, Senator, our trust and integrity teams, when looking at content on YouTube that claimed there was widespread fraud after the states had certified the validity of the election, we believed it was appropriate to take action against that content,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:45

ECB Keeps Rate Unchanged As Expected

As widely expected (and previewed), the ECB held rates unchanged (they key deposit rate remained at 2%, the refinancing rate was unch at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility stayed at 2.4%) and also kept its guidance, unchanged as well. In what was a carbon copy of its previous statement, the ECB said it was not pre-committing to a particular policy path; said  inflation remained close to its target; and said future decision would be based on risks to inflation outlook.

Here are the highlights from the statement on the Economy...

• Economy has continued to grow despite challenging global environment.
• Robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and ECBs past interest rate cuts remain important source of resilience.
• Outlook still uncertain due to global trade and geopolitics.

And on Policy

• ECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Will follow data dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy stance

The statement was rather optimistic on growth, although it highlights persistent uncertainty:

The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment. The robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience. However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.”

Ahead of the ECB announcement, the latest data showed that Q3 GDP for the euroarea had come in at 0.2%, just fractionally above expectations. 

While the meeting was down the center, some like Oliver Rakau at Oxford Economics sense the doves starting to make a push ahead of the December meeting.

Don't know about you, but I am not very comforted, when a CB needs to point to solid private sector balance sheets, when justifying its inaction despite projections showing 2yrs of sub-2% inflation. But also, 1st para sounds a bit like doves started to make a push heading to Dec pic.twitter.com/FmohCoLmp2

— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) October 30, 2025

And here’s the reaction from Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank:

“Where’s the smoking gun for a rate cut? Despite the US tariffs, despite all the various sources of uncertainty, the European economy continues to eke out some growth. Economic ‘resilience’ is keeping the ECB doves in check, and the policy pause on the rails.”

In kneejerk reaction, the EURUSD - which had been sliding all day - staged a modest rebound from session lows.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:36

Carvana Shares Plunge Nearly 10% Despite Strong Headline Earnings

Carvana shares are down almost 10% this morning even as the online used-car retailer delivered another quarter of impressive looking headline results, highlighting growing skepticism that its financial rebound may be outpacing the realities of a shaky auto market.

Revenue jumped to $5.65 billion from $3.66 billion a year earlier, powered by a 44% increase in retail units sold to 155,941, according to Bloomberg. Net income rose to $263 million, or $1.03 per share, compared with $148 million, or 64 cents, a year ago. Adjusted earnings hit $1.50 per share, well ahead of expectations, while adjusted EBITDA climbed to $637 million. The company projected fourth-quarter retail unit sales above 150,000 vehicles.

CEO Ernie Garcia celebrated the scale of the recovery, telling shareholders: “Not only is this growth happening at the same time we are producing margins higher than have ever been reported by any other automotive retailer, but it is also happening at a very significant scale.”

It's a claim the market now seems to be skeptical of.

Beneath that demand, the auto sector is showing cracks. A major parts supplier (First Brands) and a subprime auto lender (Tricolor) recently failed, while delinquencies on auto loans — particularly among younger buyers — are rising fast. Auto loan delinquencies in 2025 have surged to historic levels, driven by higher vehicle prices, interest rates, and overall affordability issues for consumers. 

Analysts warn that lower-income consumers are under growing strain. “There has been nothing but bad news recently on the auto sector when it comes to the low-end consumer,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Bloomberg

Carvana’s soaring valuation has also drawn scrutiny. The stock has jumped 78% this year and trades at roughly 53 times earnings, a multiple more in line with Silicon Valley high-flyers than with traditional auto dealers. That leaves little room for disappointment. “Any stumble in guidance, and momentum traders could hit reverse just as fast as they hit the gas,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive of Roundhill Financial.

On top of that, short sellers have accused the company in recent years of aggressive accounting, cutting corners on title transfers, and relying on financing practices that could backfire in a downturn. While the company has denied wrongdoing and tightened procedures, critics argue the rapid expansion masked deeper structural risks.

Other controversy has followed Carvana since its pandemic-era surge. After becoming a meme-stock favorite, shares crashed 98% in 2022 when losses mounted and debt worries ballooned. The current rebound has been fueled by cost-cutting, slower inventory growth, and a massive debt restructuring — moves that bought time but did not erase long-term questions about sustainability.

Meanwhile, the company's CEO and his father have sold billions of dollars in Carvana stock. 

The company’s pitch is that online scale and logistics efficiency can eventually outclass brick-and-mortar rivals such as CarMax and Lithia Motors. Yet critics argue the business remains capital-intensive — requiring costly facilities, fleets, and reconditioning centers — despite its tech-driven image. As Karobaar Capital’s Haris Khurshid put it: “It’s basically a capital intensive retailer wearing a tech premium.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:20

Senate GOP And Democrats Working On Shutdown 'Off-Ramp' For Next Week

With the government shutdown firmly in its fourth week and SNAP beneficiaries threatening cannibalism (see below), Senate Republicans and Democrats are working behind the scenes on a proposal to reopen the government next week - with centrist Democrats arguing behind the scenes that their party has successfully highlighted soaring healthcare costs. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (D-SD)

Democrats say the higher costs are now set in stone due to Republicans' refusal to negotiate a deal to extend Biden-era subsidies that are set to expire - in yet another example of anything that's supposed to be 'temporary' becoming a new goalpost (*cough gerrymandering cough*). 

"My assessment is that we’ve won anything that we can possibly win and the costs of continuing the shutdown are going to be felt by people who are going to food banks and federal employees," one Democratic senator told The Hill, who argued that any political benefit to extending the shutdown is about to be outweighed by the chaos that's about to be unleashed if SNAP benefits end for 42 million Americans.

Some Democratic senators are privately speculating that if their party does well in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia scheduled for Tuesday, they can declare a political victory and begin to finalize the endgame for reopening government.

Virginia, which will be a Senate battleground in 2026, is home to approximately 140,000 federal employees.

And of course, the largest federal employee union, the American Federation of Government Employees - which represents 820,000 federal and DC government workers - sided with the Republican plan to pass a clean (pork-free) resolution to kick the can and reopen the government - with union president Everett Kelley saying in a Monday statement that "both parties have made their point," and that it's time to "end this shutdown today." 

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (D-SD) told reporters that moderate Democrats are looking for an "off-ramp" for the shutdown, and he's willing to talk about extending the ACA subsidies after the government has reopened - and has even offered them a vote on their own proposal to extend the tax credits beyond December. 

That said, he won't negotiate specific ACA concessions with Democrats while the government remains closed.

"It’s just a question of whether or not they are at some point willing to take ‘yes’ for an answer," Thune said of moderate Democrats - however he's only going to offer them existing Republican proposals - such as getting the appropriations back on track, voting on the expiring subsidies, and committing to further the discussion on healthcare once the federal government is back up and running.

"The stakes are getting higher, which we knew they would. As the shutdown drags on, it becomes more painful for more people," said Thune. 

"What I’ve told them all along is as soon as they’re ready to open up the government that we will ensure that they have a process whereby they can have their chance to get their legislation voted on, their policies voted on," he said of his discussions with Senate Democratic colleagues. "They’ve become more interested and I hope that continues."

"They’re looking for an off-ramp," he continued, noting that the expiration of SNAP benefits is creating a sense of urgency. 

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) - pictured below getting badgered by Dianne Feinstein a few years ago...

...said that bipartisan talks to end the shutdown have picked up steam given the approaching SNAP-mageddon.

"There is a good group of folks who realize we are well past time to have this behind us. This is not good. This is not good from a governance perspective. This doesn’t reflect well on anybody and it is hurting real people [in] real time so let’s figure out a way to end it," she said, noting that the disagreements that need to be solved have been discussed at length. 

"There have been enough of these pieces that have been talked through that if somebody can just diagram out how it all comes together and present, yes, I do think it’s possible" to end the shutdown next week, she told reporters.

"There’s no great magic in how we get out of this. It’s the same stuff we’ve been talking about for months,” she continued. 

And if they don't fix this, they're gonna be eating more than the dogs and cats...

NEW: Woman says she will start eating white people if EBT is taken away, says EBT recipients will build their own nation & grow their own food.

"We are going to eat regardless, even if we have to hunt you animals down & roast & eat you, the delectable crackers & cheese."

"We… pic.twitter.com/Jqat3wgM9o

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 29, 2025

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:00

ECB Preview: A "Good Place" Leads To No Cut

Courtesy of Newsquawk

Summary

• ECB policy announcement due Thursday October 30th at 13:15GMT/09:15EDT
• Expectations are for the ECB to stand pat on the Deposit Rate at 2.0%
• The lack of material economic developments since September has set the meeting up as a non-event

OVERVIEW: With the ECB viewing policy as being in a "good place" and a lack of material economic developments since the September meeting, the upcoming announcement is expected to be a non-event. There are several risks surrounding the Eurozone economy, however, absent a material escalation, policy is priced to be on hold for the foreseeable.

PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on policy by holding the Deposit rate at 2.0%. Also in-fitting with consensus, the statement reiterated that policymakers will maintain their meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach, whilst not pre-committing to a particular policy path. As such, attention turned to the accompanying macro projections, which saw the 2026 inflation forecast only revised up to 1.7% from 1.6%; consensus looked for a more notable upgrade to 1.9%. This elicited a dovish reaction in markets with the forecast suggesting that the ECB may need to loosen policy further in order to avoid a policy undershoot. However, at the follow-up press conference, Lagarde caused an unwind of some of this initial price action after noting that minimal deviations from target will not necessarily justify movement. Other hawkish elements of the press conference came via the upgrade to the ECB's risk assessment, with risks now seen as more balanced vs. previous guidance of "tilted to the downside". Furthermore, Lagarde stated that the disinflationary process was over and policy is in a "good place".

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: September HICP inflation ticked higher from 2.0% to 2.2%, core inflation advanced to 2.4% from 2.3% and services rose to 3.2% from 3.1%. However, writing at the time, ING noted the increase in the headline print was mainly due to energy effects, which are expected to fade. The ECB's September Consumer Expectation Survey saw the 1 yr inflation forecast slip to 2.7% from 2.8% with the 3yr holding steady at 2.5%. In terms of market gauges of inflation, the 5y5y inflation forward has slipped to 2.06% from circa 2.09% at the time of the September meeting. From a growth perspective, Q3 GDP data is not released until the morning of the announcement. However, more timely survey data from S&P Global saw the October manufacturing PMI rise to 50.0 from 49.8, services increase to 52.6 from 51.3, leaving the composite at 52.2 vs. prev. 51.2. In the accompanying report, it was observed that economic growth in the eurozone, even though accelerating a bit, has been much weaker than it otherwise could have been due to the soft performance of the French economy. In the labour market, the unemployment rate remains just above the historic low @ 6.3%.

UPCOMING MEETING: The ECB is expected to maintain policy conditions in October, with all respondents to Reuters forecasting an unchanged outcome and market pricing implying just a 2% chance of a cut from the current 2.00% Deposit Rate. As stated above, the messaging from the prior meeting was one of policymakers viewing policy as being in a "good place". Since economic conditions have not changed since September and there are no accompanying macro projections, the upcoming confab is expected to be a non-event. More specifically, ING writes that reasons for an uneventful announcement are due to 1) little new information available. 2) No pressing urgencies given that the French political situation has not escalated. 3) Doves and hawks are keeping their powder dry until December (which will see the debut 2028 forecasts). For December, markets price just 1 bp of loosening. However, ING writes that downside risks still remain, with the risk of "a delayed adverse impact of US tariffs, the stronger euro exchange rate, French politics or a delay in Germany’s fiscal stimulus." The desk adds that if any of these materialise, " we can expect the ECB to engage in one or two more rate cuts".

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:44

Futures Drop As Trump-Xi Summit Underwhelms; Mag 7 Earnings Disappoint

US equity futures drop as the Trump-Xi trade truce was in line with expectations and hasn’t provided impetus for stocks to move another leg higher, after Fed Chair Powell’s pushback on another rate cut in December being a lock, while Mag7 stocks are under pressure (META -7.8%, MSFT -3.2%) as we await AAPL and AMZN tonight. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% with another wave of results due and nearly half of S&P 500 companies now having reported. Pre-market we are seeing Defensives over Cyclicals, with the exception of Metals / Miners. Gold / Silver continue their rebound as Ags and Energy are lower. Bond yields are trading near session highs, up 2bps to 4.10%, while the USD is near session highs. Besides the trade deal with China, US / Canada resumed talks and US / Mexico extended their trade truce an additional 90 days, earlier this week. The US economic calendar remains blank as government shutdown delays publication of weekly jobless claims data and 3Q GDP estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:55am) and Logan (1:15pm). Besides Amazon and Apple reporting after the close, the non-Mag7 earnings focus is mostly on healthcare. Ex-US, the ECB rate decision comes at 9.15a EST.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks mixed: Alphabet (GOOGL) gained 7% on Q3 results that beat expectations. Analysts are especially positive on its cloud-computing business. Meta Platforms (META) sank 8% after the Facebook parent reported third-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts noted some concern over the company’s heavy spending. Microsoft (MSFT) was down 2% after the software company reported its first-quarter results. Analysts are broadly positive on the report, especially growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, but said investor expectations were elevated (Apple (AAPL) +0.7%, Nvidia (NVDA) is flat, Tesla (TSLA) -0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.5%)

• Calix (CALX) rises 8% after the application software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus.
• Carvana (CVNA) falls 7% after the used-car retailer failed to live up to “elevated buy-side bar.” The company said its loan performance was solid amid rising concerns about delinquencies and distress in subprime auto lending.
• Chipotle (CMG) falls 17% after the restaurant chain lowered its full-year projection for comparable sales for a third time this year as customer traffic at its restaurants fell.
• Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) gains 4% after raising its full-year guidance as revenue from its blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs beat analysts’ estimates in the third quarter.
• FMC Corp (FMC) sinks 29% after the agricultural chemical company reported worse-than-expected revenues and cut its guidance for the full year below analyst estimates.
• FormFactor (FORM) rises 14% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong, prompting an upgrade.
• Guardant Health (GH) rallies 26% after the biotech company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
• Huntington Ingalls (HII) rises 3% after the military shipbuilder reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Insmed (INSM) climbs 12% after the biotech firm posted quarterly results.
• MediaAlpha (MAX) climbs 11% after the insurance technology company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook that analysts are positive on.
• REV Group (REVG) rises 6% after Terex agreed to buy the manufacturer of specialty vehicles.
• Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) tumbles 23% after the grocery store chain reported comparable store sales that missed estimates and lowered its forecast for full-year comp sales.
• TransMedics (TMDX) drops 10% after the transplant-therapy company reported total revenue for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, AI startup OpenAI may target a $1 trillion valuation in an IPO as soon as next year, Reuters reported citing unidentified sources. Calpers is is planning to vote against Elon Musk’s $1 trillion Tesla compensation agreement. 

On Wednesday, the Fed delivered its second straight rate reduction to support a softening labor market and said they would stop shrinking the portfolio of assets from December. Still, Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another cut this year wasn’t a foregone conclusion, prompting money markets to pare the odds of a quarter-point move to about 60% from near certainty. The European Central Bank is due to announce its policy decision later Thursday.

“After a month of strong growth across global equity markets, I think it’s quite healthy, frankly, to take a breather,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “The path of the Fed — with Powell’s surprise hawkish tilt yesterday — is a big question, as is the extent of capex announced by the Mag 7.”

Trump and Xi agreed to extend a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers in the first sitdown between leaders since Trump’s return to the White House. Despite speculation over potential additional concessions, including opening access to Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, the President indicated such issues hadn’t been part of the discussions. 

Mag 7 sentiment was muted with META and MSFT both under pressure; reaction to releases from tech giants was mixed as investors sought evidence that huge outlays are paying off. Alphabet demonstrated that its spending is fueling growth across Google’s businesses, particularly in cloud computing and search advertising, and said capex for the year will be $91 to $93 billion.  Meta said capex in 2026 will be “notably larger” than in 2025, when it expects to spend as much as $72 billion, while Microsoft’s CFO reiterated the company can’t meet current demand for AI and other services, even after spending tens of billions in recent quarters. The three bellwethers together spent $78 billion in capex last quarter, up 89% from a year earlier. 

Taking a broader look at Q3 earnings, out of the 248 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed.  Advance Auto Parts, Biogen, Bristol-Myers, Cigna, Comcast, Estee Lauder, Hershey, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Altria, Merck, Roblox and S&P Global are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Lilly’s ability to meaningful increase guidance at 3Q results may hinge on the effect of the partial loss of CVS-Caremark formulary coverage for Zepbound that started in July, according to BI.

“There has been a lot of good news priced in,” Nancy Curtin, global chief investment officer at Alti Tiedemann Global, told Bloomberg TV. “Having said that, we are still in the midst of the third-quarter earnings. If we end up again with 12-13% earnings growth in this quarter, with expectations on the rise for next quarter - that helps sustain markets.”

Carmakers around the world are planning to scale back production after an export freeze on Chinese semiconductor company Nexperia threatened to disrupt the industry’s supply chains, with Volkswagen the latest to caution that its outlook depends on sufficient supply of chips. 

Consumer trends are in focus with Chipotle lowering projections for a third time this year as customer traffic fell, while eBay gave a weak profit outlook for the holiday period. In Europe, Carlsberg sees lower beer sales on weaker consumer demand and Remy Cointreau cut its outlook amid subdued demand across markets including China, Europe and the US. 

European stocks fell as investors responded to a busy roster of earnings and looked ahead to an interest-rate decision by the European Central Bank. Drinkmaker Campari leads gains on the Stoxx 600 after a strong report, while at the other end of the index, weaker results hurt the shares of Norwegian defense group Kongsberg and advertising agency WPP. Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% to 573.49 with 374 members down, 216 up, and 10 unchanged. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Campari jumps as much as 9.6% and was the best performing stock on the Stoxx 600 after the Italian spirits group announced surprising progress in terms of profitability despite disappointing sales for its Aperol brand
• Jeromino Martins jumps as much as 8.1% after retailer reported higher-than-expected profitability in 3Q. For analysts it shows that the company was able to mitigate slowing like-for-like sales in Poland by higher cost discipline
• Lufthansa shares rise as much as 5.4%, the most since June 24. The German flag carrier reiterated its expectation for a significant increase in full-year adjusted Ebit and reported a slight profit beat in the third quarter
• Raiffeisen shares rise as much as 5.9% after the Austrian lender delivers consensus-beating third-quarter results; KBW sees a good set of results supported by another quarter of benign asset quality
• Airbus gains as much as 2.7%, setting a new record high, after the airplane and military equipment manufacturer reports third-quarter adjusted Ebit that beat consensus expectations
• ING Groep shares rise as much as 3.3%, the most in four months, as the Amsterdam-headquartered bank’s third-quarter profits come in ahead of forecasts, largely driven by higher revenues
• Ayvens gains as much as 11%, the most since May 2024, as analysts welcomed the car leasing company’s third-quarter results, which included a share buyback and a special dividend
• Kongsberg shares drop as much as 15%, the most since May 2022, after the military technology company reported Ebitda for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
• Stellantis falls as much as 6.4% as analysts focus on the potential one-off charges in the second half of the year and what they could mean for cash flow. JPMorgan notes that the carmaker’s pricing failed to fully offset FX impact
• Prysmian falls as much as 8% after the cables manufacturer’s guidance disappointed investors; JPMorgan says the extend of the upgrade is likely to disappoint the market going forward
• Credit Agricole falls as much as 3.4% as a miss on costs saw pre-provision operating profit come in broadly in-line with expectations despite a small beat on revenue
• Schneider Electric falls as much as 5% on solid albeit merely in-line third-quarter report, according to analysts, with JPMorgan flagging buy-side expectations may have been more elevated leading into the report
• WPP shares slump as much as 13% to the lowest since 2008, after the advertising agency reduced organic growth guidance that was already slashed in July. Its 3Q revenue drop was also more severe than analysts had expected
• Amplifon drops as much as 6.4%, the most since July 30, after trimming its full-year sales growth guidance, while maintaining its adjusted Ebitda margin goal. JPMorgan says 3Q results fell short of expectations
• Carlsberg shares slip after the brewer reported third-quarter results in line with low expectations, with consumer weakness in markets including China and Ukraine weighing on volumes

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks turned lower after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping concluded a meeting that was seen as easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies but may have been largely priced into assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, reversing an early advance of as much as 0.5%. Softbank and Wesfarmers were among key drags. South Korean stocks gained after the nation sealed a trade deal with the US and Samsung Electronics posted a big bump in profits from its chip business.  Details on further aspects of the agreement will be key for the Asian stock rally, with the regional benchmark on course for its seventh straight monthly gain. Stocks rose in Japan after the central bank held interest rates. Shares fell in Australia, India, Vietnam and the Philippines.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges higher. The yen weakened below 154 per dollar after the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and offered no new hints on when it might hike.

In rates, treasuries are lower with most yields about 1-2bps higher vs Wednesday’s closing levels. US 10-year near 4.09% slightly exceeds Wednesday’s high, adding to losses that lifted tenors other than the 30-year at least 10bp; German and UK yields are cheaper by 2bp to 4bp across curves. Fed-dated OIS also hover around Wednesday’s closing levels, pricing in around 15bp of easing for the December rate decision. German 2-year topped 2% for the first time in three weeks ahead of the ECB monetary-policy decision at 9:15am New York time. European yields are higher across the curve. French GDP comfortably topped estimates, German output stagnated. Focal points of US session include speeches by Fed’s Bowman and Logan. S&P 500 are down slightly amid evaluation of US-China trade truce. 

In commodities, gold prices rising and testing $4,000/oz, oil slipping with WTI sitting around $60/barrel and Brent short of $65/barrel.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar remains effectively blank as government shutdown delays publication of weekly jobless claims data and 3Q GDP estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9:55am) and Logan (1:15pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.07%
• VIX -0.9 points at 16.05
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1214.55
• euro +0.2% at $1.1624
• WTI crude -0.5% at $60.15/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump hailed an “amazing meeting” with Xi Jinping that resulted in them extending a tariff truce for another year, rolling back export controls and reducing other trade barriers. Beijing agreed to pause controls on rare-earth magnets and, as Trump put it, buy “tremendous” amounts of American soybeans. The leaders didn’t discuss approving sales of NVDA’s Blackwell chips to China. BBG
• The Senate votes 50-46 to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada (this action, the second in as many days after the Senate voted to remove Trump’s Brazil tariffs, is most likely symbolic since it likely will not pass in the house). WaPo
• China pledged to work with Washington to resolve the fate of TikTok’s US business, stopping short of saying it’s agreed to Trump’s proposed deal. BBG
• President Trump's administration taps three different funds to pay US troops this Friday: Axios.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday he expects to engage “pretty soon” with a group of rank-and-file Senate Democrats about ending the 29-day-and-counting government shutdown. If a meeting happens, it would be a rare bipartisan gathering involving a top party leader. Politico
• The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Thursday, with its governor sending the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December depending on the outlook for wages next year. RTRS
• The euro-area economy expanded more than anticipated in the third quarter, displaying resilience to higher US tariffs, with France recording its strongest growth in over two years. German GDP stagnated, as expected. BBG
• Trump ordered nuclear weapons trials in response to Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-powered underwater drones and cruise missiles. The US’s last nuclear explosive test was in 1992. BBG
• OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO as soon as next year that may value the company at $1 trillion. RTRS
• Gold rebounded after a 5% slide over four sessions as investors digest the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting and sniff out the chances for more Fed cuts. Bullion has advanced about 50% this year and hit a record $4,380 an ounce last week. BBG
• Megacaps following last night’s earnings: GOOGL +8%: Topline accelerates across the board with Cloud, Search, and YouTube all ahead; FY25 Capex guide raised… META -8%: 2026 Capex to be notably larger than 2025 with expenses to grow at a faster pace; 3Q Revenues accelerate and 4Q guided ahead…  MSFT -2.5%: 1Q Azure growth beats guide by 2pts (inline with whispers); F2Q Azure guided stable and Capex to grow. Goldman

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi was amazing and a lot of decisions were made, while they will be providing conclusions on very important things and agreed that Xi will work very hard to stop fentanyl. Trump confirmed that China soybean purchases will start immediately and they agreed to reduce China fentanyl tariffs to 10%, as well as noted that they did discuss chips and will be talking to NVIDIA and others about taking chips, but are not talking about Blackwell chips. Trump said the rare earth issue has been settled and there are no more roadblocks on rare earths, while he said it's a one-year agreement that will be extended and tariffs on China will be 47%, down from 57%. Furthermore, he is going to China in April and Xi will be coming to the US sometime after that, while he rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.
• Chinese President Xi told US President Trump at the start of the meeting that it is a pleasure to meet him and they do not always see eye to eye, but this is normal and it is normal for economies to have frictions, while he added that China’s development goes hand in hand with the vision to make America great again. Xi also stated that China and the US should be partners and friends, as well as noted that trade teams have reached a basic consensus and they are ready to continue working to build a solid foundation for two-way ties.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the announcement after the Trump-Xi meeting will be a resounding victory for our farmers.
  • China's President Xi says China's economy is like an ocean, according to the Chinese state media. Conversation is better than confrontation when dealing with trade. On the Trump meeting: Both sides have good prospects for AI, and the US and China should aim to narrow down list of problems and extend cooperation.
  • China Commerce Ministry confirms the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, China is to adjust some countermeasures. Says the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. To pause countermeasures related to 301 investigation for a year. US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
  • US President Trump posts "I had a truly great meeting with President Xi of China", "agreed that they will begin the process of purchasing American Energy", large transaction may occur regarding Alaska.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed after the Fed rate cut and Powell's hawkish presser, while participants also digested the BoJ decision and Trump-Xi meeting. ASX 200 lacked demand in the absence of tier-1 data and as markets reflected on the recent deluge of risk events.  Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the BoJ policy decision in which the central bank maintained rates, as widely expected and refrained from any major clues for when it will resume its rate normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the attention was on the Trump-Xi meeting, where the leaders exchanged pleasantries at the start, but were then quiet with no statements provided upon the conclusion of the meeting. However, Trump later commented that the meeting was amazing and confirmed a reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs, while he also said the rare earths issue was resolved and rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Premier Li said it is necessary to implement requirements of high-quality development in all fields and aspects of economic and social development, while he added it is necessary to promote high-quality development as the theme, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, and meet the people's growing needs for a better life. Furthermore, he stated it is necessary to focus more on strengthening the domestic cycle, coordinate the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and deepen supply-side structural reforms.
• HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.25%, as expected.
• China to announce new financing tool to drive over CNY 6tln in investments, via Bloomberg citing Xinhua.
• Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK / 601288 CH) 9-month (CNY): Net Income 222.3bln, Net Fee Income 69.8bln, NII 427bln, NIM 1.3%. Q3 (CNY): net 81.4bln, +3.7% Y/Y; Operating Revenue 181bln, +4.3% Y/Y.
• ICBC (1398 HK) Q3 (CNY): Net 101.8bln, +3.3% Y/Y. 9-month: NIM 1.28%, Net Income 271.8bln, NII 610.9bln.
• CNOOC (0883 HK) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 104.9bln (exp. 97.6bln), net 32.4bln (prev. 36.9bln).
• Bank of Communications (3328 HK) 9-month (CNY): Net income 29.994bln, +0.15% Y/Y; NII 128.65bln, +1.46% Y/Y.
• China Construction Bank (0939 HK) Q3 net profit 95.3bln, +4.2% Y/Y.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mixed but have been moving lower throughout the morning. Traders have had a hawkish leaning Powell and the Trump-Xi meeting to digest. On the latter, Trump sounded upbeat following the meeting whilst the China Commerce Ministry confirmed the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only really Tech and Healthcare leading whilst Media is found right at the foot of the pile. In terms of key movers today; Shell (-0.4%, mixed results and announced USD 3.5bln buyback), TotalEnergies (+2.7%, in-line metrics), Stellantis (-5%, 13% Y/Y increase in shipments though warned of one-time hit).

BOJ Decision 

• BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected, with board members Takata and Tamura the dissenters who proposed raising short-term rates by 25bps. BoJ said real interest rates are at significantly low levels and it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices, while it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and noted that it is important to scrutinise without any pre-set idea whether the BoJ’s projection will be met, given high uncertainty on trade policy and its impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ stated that underlying consumer inflation is likely to stagnate on slowing growth, but increase gradually thereafter, and is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027, while board members' median projections for Real GDP and Core CPI were mostly kept unchanged from the previous aside from the slight upgrade to FY2025 Real GDP to 0.7% from 0.6%.

BOJ: Ueda press conference

• No pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. A remark that lifted USD/JPY
• Need some more data until we decide to adjust degree of monetary easing.
• Possible to change policy even in the middle of the budget being compiled. Will adjust rate irrespective of the political situation.
• Reason for holding off on rate hikes is due to overall economies and trade policy uncertainties still being high.
• Expect next wage hikes to be roughly in line with this year's. Want to carefully watch wage negotiations especially in the autos sector given tariff impact.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
• UK Chancellor Reeves has admitted she breached housing rules when renting out her family home, via BBC; PM Starmer has dismissed calls for an investigation into the incident.

FX

• DXY is flat, taking a breather following the upside seen in the prior session following the hawkish leaning Fed Chair Powell. To recap, the Fed cut by 25bps as expected, subject to 50bps and U/C dissent; it also announced it will end the balance sheet drawdown. However, Powell's presser thereafter struck a hawkish tone after he raised doubts regarding a December cut, stating that a rate reduction is "far from assured". Fed aside, focus has been on the Trump-Xi meeting. Overall, the POTUS seemed very positive with the outcome whereby he announced that China had agreed to soybean purchases and alluded to an "American Energy" agreement - still awaiting details on that front. The Chinese Commerce Ministry the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, adding that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. DXY currently trading in a 98.91 to 99.21 range.
• EUR is slightly firmer today. A number of key data points to keep traders busy, including; French GDP (beat exp.), Spanish inflation (slightly hotter-than-expected), German GDP (no growth Q/Q, whilst Y/Y beat exp.), State CPIs (point to cooler than exp. Y/Y print for the Nationwide figure, but perhaps to a lesser magnitude than expected). Overall little move seen in the Single-currency; currently trades at the upper end of a 1.1598-1.1637 range. Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
• JPY is the clear G10 underperformer today, following the BoJ. On that, very much as expected, the Bank kept rates steady at 0.50% - a decision which was subject to dissent by Takata and Tamura. Accompanying commentary also lacked surprises, and ultimately lacked any hawkish hints for the next meeting which may be driving the pressure in the JPY today. Moreover, some additional pressure in the Yen was seen during Governor Ueda's presser, in which he stated that there is no pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. USD/JPY has been gradually edging higher throughout the morning and trades at the upper end of a 152.17-153.88 range.
• GBP is essentially flat vs USD today. Briefly reclaimed the 1.32 mark overnight but has since been pressured below that mark, to trade within a 1.3182-1.3218 range. Focus on the UK's Budget at the end of next month; reports suggest that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
• Antipodeans are marginally flat/flat firmer the Dollar today. Ultimately traders are digesting the Trump-Xi outcome and the pressure seen across the metals space this morning.

Fixed Income

• A softer start to Thursday for USTs. The benchmark is holding around the post-Powell lows, but did briefly drop to a 112-22+ base, taking out the 112-24 trough from Wednesday. In brief, the Fed cut by 25bps, a decision subject to 50bps and U/C dissent. They also announced a decision to exit balance sheet reduction, as part of this, the MBA unwind will continue, but offset by T-Bill purchases as/when necessary. The bulk of the action came from Powell, who was hawkish regarding the near term path of policy, outlining that there is a growing chorus of feeling they should maybe wait a cycle, in terms of continuing to ease. Ahead, we have Fed’s Bowman (voter) and Logan (2026) scheduled, though Bowman is pre-recorded and Logan is on bank research; remarks should not cover current policy as the Fed is technically still in the blackout period until the end of Thursday. Friday’s docket has Logan, Bostic (2027) and Hammack (2026). Additionally, we will await the dissent letters from Miran (voter) and Schmid (2025) who preferred 50bps and U/C respectively. Since, newsflow has been focussed on tariffs. The mentioned 112-22+ base this morning came alongside a readout from China’s Commerce Ministry on the Trump-Xi meeting, a meeting POTUS described as a 12/10, the readout from China confirmed that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
• The Fed weighed on JGBs on Wednesday, to a 135.78 low into the close. Thereafter, JGBs picked up a touch following the BoJ. The decision was unchanged as expected, subject to two hawkish dissenters. However, modest upside was seen in JGBs after the statement as it did not contain any overtly hawkish signals. Specifically, this lifted JGBs above the 136.00 mark after the Tokyo lunch break, a move that continued thereafter to a 136.26 peak just before Ueda began. The main market-moving update was Ueda outlining that there is no pre-set idea about the timing of the next hike. A move that spurred some JPY pressure at the time but didn’t have much impact on JGBs.
• Bunds hit on the Fed alongside USTs, as outlined above. Early doors, the benchmark held near yesterday’s 129.21 base and then dipped a tick further to the current 129.20 low, a low print that occurred alongside the discussed commentary from China’s Commerce Ministry. Thereafter, Bunds lifted in-line with the likes of XAU as the risk tone dipped a touch; evidenced by European and US equity futures moving into the red vs the slightly firmer performance seen before the European cash equity open. At most, Bunds to a 129.38 peak but still lower by 19 ticks. No move this morning to a much stronger than expected French GDP figure for Q3, while hotter-than-expected Spanish CPI weighed a touch, but EGBs remained well within earlier ranges. Eurozone GDP came in above expectations, printing at 0.2% Q/Q (exp. 0.1%) and 1.3% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%) following the much better than expected French figure and Germany remaining at 0.0% (assuaging some concern around a negative figure). Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
• Gilts opened lower by 23 ticks, as the benchmark had yet to react to the Powell-pressure seen in peers. A move that extended by another 20 ticks to a 93.35 low shortly after the resumption of trade. Since, Gilts have found a base just below the 93.55 opening mark, posting losses of c. 30 ticks on the session. Newsflow for the UK remains focused on the November Budget, amid reports that Reeves is looking at the early scrapping of oil/gas windfall taxes and a potential 2p increase to income tax; the latter would be a manifesto breach. Note, the attention on Reeves herself has intensified owing to her admitting she breached housing rules regarding her family home, PM Starmer has since dismissed calls for an investigation.
• Italy sells EUR vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.5bln 2.85% 2031, 3.45% 2036 & EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.645% 2031, 1.594% 2032 CCTeu.

Commodities

• Price action in crude benchmarks have been choppy throughout the APAC session and into the European trading day amid light crude-specific newsflow. WTI and Brent are currently trading around USD 60.20/bbl and USD 64.00/bbl as the market waits for a new catalyst.
• Spot XAU has stabilised above USD Wednesday’s trough of USD 3915/oz after falling back below USD 4k/oz following the hawkish cut by the FOMC. XAU fell just shy of Wednesday’s low to USD 3916/oz during the APAC session before slowly reversing the losses seen during the FOMC meeting. The yellow metal has returned back above USD 4k/t as the European session continues with XAU currently trading at USD 4004/oz.
• Base metals have fallen from Wednesday’s record highs as the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi ended with a lack of statements from both sides, indicating a possibility that the talks didn’t go as well as expected. However, recent comments from both sides indicated that the talks did go well, with the US cutting the fentanyl tariff to 10% and suspending the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year while the Chinese will halt rare earth export curbs and resume US soybean purchases.
• Russia's Lukoil says it has received an offer to acquire foreign assets from Gunvor

Geopolitics

• US President Trump posted that the US has more nuclear weapons than any other country, which was accomplished during his first term in office, while he stated that because of other countries testing programs, he has instructed the Department of War to start testing US nuclear weapons on an equal basis, and that process will begin immediately.
  • US President Trump said he wasn't able to talk with North Korea leader Kim because he was so busy, but would come back to talk with Kim.
  • US Defense Secretary Hegseth said they carried out a lethal kinetic strike earlier today on another narco-trafficking vessel operated by a designated terrorist organisation in the Eastern Pacific.
  • Russian and Chinese officials discuss potential war settlement issues, via Tass.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Oct 25 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 228k
• 8:30 am: Oct 18 Continuing Claims, est. 1932k
• 8:30 am: 3Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3%, prior 3.8%
• 8:30 am: 3Q A Personal Consumption, est. 3.2%, prior 2.5%
• 8:30 am: 3Q A GDP Price Index, est. 2.7%, prior 2.1%
• 8:30 am: 3Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3%, prior 2.6%
• 9:55 am: Fed’s Bowman Gives Pre-Recorded Remarks
• 1:15 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Funding Conference

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

All the action in markets has happened since Europe went home last night with a Fed rate cut - but signals from Powell that a December rate cut was "far from…a foregone conclusion”, mixed tech earnings, a BoJ on hold and a seemingly upbeat Xi/Trump meeting. Meanwhile Nvidia (+2.99%) became the first company to reach a $5trn market capitalisation. Overall this left 10yr Treasury yields spiking by +10.1bps and the S&P 500 (-0.004%) flat on the day even as the NASDAQ (+0.55%) and Mag-7 (+1.03%) powered on to new highs. US equity futures on the S&P (+0.13%) and NASDAQ (+0.14%) are trading higher as I type after headlines from the Trump/Xi meeting are materialising. Looking ahead, the main events today will be Apple and Amazon earnings, along with the ECB’s policy decision, where rates are widely expected to remain on hold at 2%.

In a much-anticipated meeting this morning, President Trump met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Busan, South Korea, to discuss trade, with both leaders expressing optimism about alleviating trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world. President Trump characterized his discussions with Xi as 'fantastic,' emphasizing a 'great relationship' between the two leaders, while Premier Xi noted that both parties had achieved 'a basic consensus' despite ongoing differences. In a nod perhaps to Spinal Tap, Trump said "I guess on the scale from zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12".

According to President Trump’s briefing to reporters aboard Air Force One, the meeting culminated in a trade agreement that would see the US reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods by half, effective immediately. Additionally, the agreement will allow China to resume its soybean purchases and suspend its rare-earths licensing regime for a minimum of one year. Furthermore, the leaders agreed to collaborate on issues concerning Ukraine and stated their intention to eliminate shipping tariffs and fees. Trump has said he'll be going to China in April. At the moment we don't have the official China response to the meeting but that may come as we go to press. So keep an eye out for that. As I press send the FT are reporting that Trump has said that Xi has agreed to a one-year trade deal which will be reviewed annually. So that story will develop this morning.  

Turning to the Fed, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, with Kansas Fed President Schmid dissenting in favour of keeping rates steady while Governor Miran favoured a 50bps cut. While the decision itself was widely expected, Chair Powell was more equivocal on future rate cuts, saying that “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it”. Powell acknowledged “strongly differing views" within the FOMC, with some primarily concerned about a slowing labour market but others warning that still elevated inflation limited room for further easing. As per our economists’ expectations, the Fed also announced it will end its balance sheet runoff (QT) starting from December 1. On rates policy, our economists maintain a baseline of a 25bps rate cut in December but see the hawkish-leaning signal as consistent with their view of fundamentals pointing to fewer rate cuts than priced by markets. (see their full reaction here).

In response, fed funds futures cut back the likelihood of a 25bp December rate cut from effectively fully priced down to 69%, while fed funds pricing for next June moved + 12.9bps higher on the day. That drove Treasuries to their worst day since early June, with 2yr yields up +10.8bps to 3.60% and 10yr up +10.1bps to 4.08%. Powell’s more cautious signal on future cuts weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 erasing gains to trade more than half a percent lower on the day but then recovering back to flat (-0.004%) by close. And while tech stocks rallied, the equity market breadth was increasingly negative, with three quarters of the S&P lower on the day and its equal-weighted version down -1.11%. The S&P 500 has now outperformed its equal-weighted counterpart by 3.0% so far this week, the biggest 3-day performance gap between the two since 2020.

Then after the market close, we saw results from Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet send contrasting signals on the payoffs from the AI investment boom. The three tech giants saw their joint capex bill rise +89% y/y to $78bn in the latest quarter. But with Meta delivering in line revenue guidance for the current quarter ($56-59bn vs $57.4bn est.) and Microsoft saying that capacity was still constraining growth in its cloud unit (+39% y/y vs +37% est.), this left questions hanging over increasingly lofty expectations. Meta’s shares fell more than -7% in after-hours trading with Microsoft down -4%. By contrast, Alphabet’s solid revenue beat ($87.5bn vs $85.1bn est.) came amid surging demand for its cloud and AI services, leaving investors more optimistic that its capex spend was translating into rising AI-related revenue. Alphabet’s shares rose more than +6% in post-market trading.

Before all that, the standout story yesterday was Nvidia (+2.99%) becoming the first company in history to reach a $5 trillion valuation — placing it above the entire listed market capitalisation of every G7 country except the US and Japan. To put that in perspective, Nvidia first crossed $1tn in June 2023, $2tn in March 2024, $3tn in June 2024, and $4tn in July 2025. It dipped as low as $2.4tn in April this year, making its ascent all the more remarkable. There has simply never been a company like it in the history of financial markets. With Microsoft (-0.10%) also surpassing $4tn earlier this week, and Apple (+0.26%) doing so yesterday, these companies are now more akin to countries than corporations.
Nvidia’s gains came after Trump said in yesterday’s Asian session that he planned to discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell chips with Xi. That comment pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +1.85% to a new high. As a reminder, Trump floated the idea of allowing Nvidia to export scaled-down versions of its Blackwell chips to China back in August. That came as he also approved shipments of Nvidia’s H20 chips — a less advanced model — in exchange for the US administration taking a 15% revenue share.

Elsewhere, the US and South Korea announced a trade deal yesterday. The agreement includes a $200bn investment commitment from South Korea (capped at $20bn annually) and an additional $150bn in shipbuilding investment. In return, the US has agreed to reduce auto tariffs to 15% from 25%, bringing them in line with Japan’s rate.

On the data front, ahead of the Fed decision, US September pending home sales were unchanged versus expectations for a +1.2% rise, though the annual rate did still pick up to a 10-month high of +1.5% y/y.

Today will be a busy day for European data as well. Alongside the ECB meeting, we’ll get Q3 GDP flash estimates for France, Germany, Italy, and the wider Euro Area. Our European economists expect Euro Area growth to come in between 0.0% and +0.1% q/q, with France flat, Germany at +0.2%, and Italy at +0.1%. Spain’s flash estimate yesterday showed +0.6% q/q, in line with market expectations.

Staying with Europe, the ECB is widely expected to hold rates at 2% again, with recent growth and inflation data broadly aligned with its forecasts. President Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policy remains “in a good place.” Our European economists expect the tone to stay unchanged, though dovish risks include trade uncertainty, energy inflation, and credit transmission concerns. 

European equities lagged their US peers for a second consecutive session, with the STOXX 600 down -0.06%. Weakness was led by German and French stocks, with the DAX (-0.64%) and CAC 40 (-0.19%) both under pressure amid ongoing budget concerns. In bond markets, yields drifted slightly lower, led by OATs (-1.8bps) and BTPs (-1.4bps), while gilts (-0.8bps) and bunds (-0.2bps) also edged down.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, as expected, with only minor adjustments to its policy assessment.
In other overnight news, the liberal centrist D66 looks set to lead attempts to form a new government after early elections in Netherlands. The party is on course to match the seat share of the right-wing populist Freedom Party in a fragmented parliament, with the latter losing nearly a third of its seats compared to the 2023 election.

Asian equity markets are mixed with the Nikkei (+0.25%), the KOSPI (+0.39%), and Hang Seng (+0.13%) higher but mainland Chinese markets slightly lower. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.40%) is lower. Meanwhile, 10yr USTs are -1.16bps lower trading at 4.06% as we go to print.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has, as widely anticipated, kept interest rates steady at 0.5%, with two members dissenting in favour of a rate increase. This extends the pause in its tightening cycle to a sixth consecutive meeting after a 25 basis points hike in January. In its quarterly economic outlook report, the board has slightly adjusted its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2026 to 0.7% from 0.6%, while maintaining its projections for the subsequent two fiscal years at 0.7% and 1% respectively. Additionally, it has raised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2026.

Simultaneously, the central bank anticipates that underlying inflation will reach 2% in the latter half of the three-year projection period ending in March 2027, retaining the language from the previous report issued in July. Following this announcement, the Japanese yen (-0.05%) weakened before stabilizing to trade flat at 152.71 against the dollar.

To the day ahead, the key event will be the ECB decision, alongside a full slate of European data releases — including Germany’s Q3 GDP, October CPI, unemployment rate, France’s Q3 GDP, Italy’s Q3 GDP and September unemployment, Eurozone confidence data, and the region’s Q3 GDP print. On the earnings front, highlights include Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, and Samsung Electronics.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:36

Chipotle Shares Plunge Most Since 2012 On Alarming "Consumer Slowdown" Materializing 

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill plunged in premarket trading after the company slashed its full-year sales outlook for the third time this year, now forecasting a low single-digit decline from the previous reporting year instead of flat growth. The downgrade reflects a clear pullback in discretionary dining behavior this fall, as working-class consumers tighten budgets amid mounting economic pressures. None of this should come as a surprise, as we cautioned in our note last week, "Low-Income Consumers Pulling Back on Restaurant Spending May Signal Trouble Ahead."

Trouble ahead indeed: Shares of Chipotle cratered 18% in premarket trading, adding to a brutal 34% year-to-date decline. It's been a rotten year for investors as the burrito chain, heavily exposed to younger, cost-sensitive consumers with mounting student loans and insurmountable credit card debt, bears the brunt of an emerging pullback in discretionary spending and waning appetite for eating out.

If premarket losses hold through intraday cash, this would mark Chipotle's worst down day since July 20, 2012.

"The consumer slowdown is really affecting our business in a meaningful way," CEO Scott Boatwright told Wall Street analysts on Wednesday evening after an earnings call. 

For the third quarter, Chipotle's comparable-store sales marginally increased but missed Bloomberg Consensus expectations. There were widespread misses on key operational and margin metrics, which only suggest softer sales momentum and elevated cost pressures:

• Comparable sales: +0.3% (missed Bloomberg Consensus est. +0.99%)

• Adjusted EPS: $0.29 (in line with est. $0.29)

• Revenue: $3.00B (slightly below est. $3.02B)

• Operating margin: 15.9% (vs. est. 16.6%)

• Restaurant-level margin: 24.5% (vs. est. 25.5%)

• New restaurants opened: 84 (below est. 90.96)

• Total restaurants at quarter-end: 3,916 (vs. est. 3,929)

• Average restaurant sales: $3.13M (in line with est. $3.12M)

The full-year also disappointed investors by cutting the outlook for the third time:

• Comparable restaurant sales: Now expected to decline in the low single digits (previously forecast about flat)

• New restaurant openings: Still projected at 315–345 (vs. consensus estimate 333)

Rymer also noted that some consumers are trading down from higher-priced steaks to cheaper chicken options, while continuing to purchase extras like guacamole and drinks. Compounding its troubles, the fast-casual chain also faces operational challenges, including digital order errors, ingredient shortages, and cleanliness issues.

Wall Street commentary on the consumer pullback at Chipotle (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Halen

• Chipotle's quarterly same-store sales may drop low- to mid- single digits "as traffic plummets"

• "The 4Q restaurant margin may contract meaningfully vs. 4Q24's 24.8%, based on guidance, due to sales deleveraging and wage and commodity inflation"

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour (overweight, PT to $50 from $59) 

• While the 3Q was roughly in line, "4Q stepping down and with slower traffic, more inflation and less price" 

• "Stock likely under pressure as 4Q remains tough"

Stephens analyst Jim Salera (equal-weight, PT $48)

• Chipotle's lowered FY25 same-store sales guidance to declines of low single-digit % versus flat likely implies a sequential step-down in 4Q25 

• "Looking to FY26, we believe CMG's premium multiple could be at risk if the company cannot show signs of accelerating comps back towards the MSD% [mid single-digit] range"

Chipotle's mounting consumer woes come as no surprise to ZeroHedge Premium and Pro subs. Early last week, we shared a Goldman Sachs survey that found low-income consumers were pulling back on spending. Here's the chart we were focused on:

Read the report here. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:25

Ukraine Won't Be Able To Reclaim All Territories Seized By Russia, Italy Admits

The top commander of a NATO-member army has finally spoken the quiet part out loud - something which leadership in Brussels won't bring itself to admit - on a public level at least...

Ukraine will not be able to retake all territories seized by Russia since 2014, even with the help of Western allies, said Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto - in remarks being widely noticed in both Ukrainian and Russian media. "Today, everyone considers it impossible to reclaim the territories lost by Ukraine in 2014 and after February 2022. Russia will never give them up, and Ukraine will not have the strength to retake them on its own, even with our help," Crosetto said.

Italy's Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, via AFP

Russia's military currently holds some 20% of Ukrainian territory, and early in the conflict Moscow declared the annexation after popular referendum of the four oblasts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

Citing the Italian defense chief further, RBC-Ukraine writes, "According to him, Russian leader Vladimir Putin cannot back down, in part because he changed the constitution, declaring the occupied territories Russian in every sense, thereby putting himself in a position where he cannot negotiate."

And yet the reality is that the Zelensky government and its backers in NATO still appear completely unwilling to negotiate based on ceding territory.

Zelensky has refused to even recognized Russia's hold over Crimea, and Moscow is certainly never going to give up Crimea and home to its Black Sea naval fleet.

"It is up to them [the Ukrainians] to decide what is the greater sacrifice: conceding territory or continuing a bloody war that could intensify. Ukrainian losses amount to 520,000 people, while Russian losses exceed 1 million. The difference is that Ukrainians are aware of their losses, whereas the Russian people have no idea," Crosetto continued.

But Crosetto holds no sympathies with Moscow - quite the opposite in fact - as he's also said that Russia is sowing propaganda among European populations, and even seeks to destabilize and confuse Italy.

We reported earlier Wednesday that the key logistical hub of Ukraine's eastern front - Pokrovsk, is poised to be captured by the Russian army, given its infantry forces are already inside southern districts of the frontline city.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 08:05

Trump Says SNAP Benefits Will Be Solved For Next Month

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said that he believes Republicans will solve how to fund food stamps, when he was asked about the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the government shutdown.

President Donald Trump speaks aboard Air Force One while traveling from Japan to South Korea on Oct. 29, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

SNAP is slated to expire by Nov. 1, potentially ending benefits for millions of people across the United States.

“We’re going to get it done,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Oct. 29. “The Democrats have caused the problem, unfortunately. All they have to do is sign, and if they sign, I'll meet with them.”

The president then suggested that the shutdown is linked to broader talks on health care and an extension of subsidies. Senate Democrats have refused 13 times to pass bills to reopen the government because those measures do not include health care provisions, including an extension of Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) subsidies slated to expire at the end of the year.

“We have to fix health care because Obamacare is a disaster,” Trump said, referring to the Affordable Care Act. “When you see the increases in Obamacare, it never worked, it never will work, and we could do something with the Democrats much better than Obamacare. Less money and better health care.”

Trump then said that health insurance companies are “making too much money” and said that talks are needed between Republicans and Democrats when the shutdown ends.

Managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), SNAP provides food assistance to about 42 million people—generally low-income individuals—each month. The agency has warned that because of the shutdown, benefits are unlikely to be sent out starting on Nov. 1.

In a statement posted on the USDA’s website earlier this week, the department warned that “the well has run dry.” The agency also blamed Democratic lawmakers for the shutdown and the loss of benefits.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) warned in an opinion article published this week that millions of Americans may lose access to food benefits in a few days if nothing changes. He urged Congress to pass a separate measure to ensure that SNAP benefits are not interrupted.

“America is a great and wealthy nation, and our most important wealth is our generosity of spirit,” Hawley wrote for The New York Times.

Democrats, meanwhile, have said that Republicans are to blame for the shutdown because Trump will not enter direct negotiations with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

They’ve also accused the Trump administration and Republicans of wanting to gut health care benefits for Americans under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that was passed earlier this year.

At the same time, a House Democrat who chairs the appropriations committee has said that a decision by the administration not to use a contingency fund for food aid is likely illegal.

“The contingency funding that we set aside for SNAP is not optional spending. It is required by the law,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said in a news conference in the Capitol on Oct. 28.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), however, has said that the fund, which the Department of Agriculture has said is to be used in emergencies such as natural disasters, cannot be used now to pay for SNAP.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 07:41