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Kremlin's Surprise Overture: Ready To Halt Airstrikes On Election Day If Zelensky Allows Vote

Kremlin's Surprise Overture: Ready To Halt Airstrikes On Election Day If Zelensky Allows Vote

Moscow just potentially created a big opening for Ukrainian elections to actually happen, with an unexpected overture:

Russia is ready to ensure that there will be no airstrikes on election day in Ukraine if Kiev decides to hold elections, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said an interview with TASS.

However, the big question remains of if President Zelensky decides to actually proceed with an election. Given that months ago he didn't even cave to Trump pressuring him to do so, it's very up in the air whether he wants to actually see this through, or if martial law will continue to be used as an excuse to block a vote.

via Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has floated willingness to halt airstrikes deep into Ukraine on election day if elections are held there - but he's also also recently said that the millions of Ukrainians currently living in Russia should have the right to vote.

These are mostly Russian-speaking Ukrainians who lived in the Donbass - as well as Crimea - before war broke out, or who are still there amid the conflict.

"Of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin's statements remain relevant. But, as I earlier noted, there is no talk yet of the practical organization of voting in Ukraine," Galuzin said.

"I would like to draw attention to our experience. In March 2024, presidential elections were held in Russia, and polling stations - even taking into account the ongoing military operations -were opened in close proximity to the combat zone. Kiev tried every way possible to disrupt the electoral process in the frontline regions, not shying away from resorting to terrorist means and sabotage. However, it proved unable to achieve its goal," Galuzin added.

He then emphasized that Russia "will not stoop to Kiev's practices and will allow the people of Ukraine to fully exercise their constitutionally enshrined electoral rights and independently determine the future development of their country."

"Of course, if the Kiev regime finally decides to take this democratic step," the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister added.

Ukraine has said a parliamentary committee is still studying the issue, and that the total safety of all citizens would have to be guaranteed - also by international powers - while the vote proceeds.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 21:50

Indonesia To Send First 1,000 Troops To Gaza By April For 'Stabilization Force'

Indonesia To Send First 1,000 Troops To Gaza By April For 'Stabilization Force'

Via Middle East Eye

Indonesia is readying 1,000 troops to be deployed in Gaza as early as April as part of the UN-mandated International Stabilization Force, an army spokesperson said on Monday.

A total of 8,000 Indonesian soldiers will be ready for deployment by June, while the final decision will be made by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. "The departure schedule remains entirely subject to the political decisions of the state and applicable international mechanisms," the spokesman said in a text message to news agency Reuters.

via AFP

Indonesian Army Chief of Staff Maruli Simanjuntak previously estimated that between 5,000 and 8,000 military personnel could be deployed, with final numbers "still being negotiated". 

On Saturday, Indonesia's foreign ministry said that its military's participation in Gaza as part of the peace plan devised by US President Donald Trump should not be interpreted as a normalization of political relations with Israel

"Indonesia consistently rejects all attempts at demographic change or the forced displacement or relocation of the Palestinian people in any form," the ministry said.

The deployment, which has a non-combatant, humanitarian mandate, could only be carried out with the consent of the Palestinian Authority, the ministry said.

"Indonesian troops will not be involved in combat operations or any action leading to direct confrontation with any armed group," the statement said. Indonesian troops would also have no mandate to demilitarize any party, it added.

However the mandate of the stabilization force includes ensuring "the process of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip" and "the permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups". The resolution authorizes the force to "use all necessary measures to carry out its mandate".

$5bn to rebuild Gaza 

Indonesia confirmed last week that President Prabowo Subianto will attend the inaugural leaders’ meeting of Trump’s "Board of Peace", whose members have pledged $5bn toward "rebuilding war-ravaged Gaza". 

Indonesian foreign ministry said that Prabowo would use the forum on 19 February to advocate for the protection of Palestinians and push for a sustainable peace based on a two-state solution, which envisions the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Prabowo is also expected to sign a tariff agreement with the United States during the trip, the government said. "We are just preparing ourselves in case an agreement is reached and we have to send peacekeeping forces," Prabowo told journalists.

The president also said he will seek to negotiate the board’s reported $1bn membership fee. Indonesia’s foreign ministry said that its troops' participation in Gaza would not be aimed at imposing peace, but would instead focus on humanitarian objectives. 

Indonesia is one of the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping operations globally, with more than 2,700 personnel deployed in missions across Africa and the Middle East.

Indonesia's largest deployment is with the United Nations Interim Force is in Lebanon. Public support for Palestine is strong in Indonesia, where mass demonstrations have taken place against Israel's genocide in Gaza. 

On August 3, thousands of Indonesians gathered at Jakarta's National Monument, waving Palestinian flags and holding placards demanding justice for Gaza.

Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, has consistently called for an end to Israeli genocide in Gaza and has pushed for a two-state solution through international forums. Its government has also provided humanitarian aid, medical support and diplomatic backing for Palestinian institutions.

In November, Indonesia's defense minister announced that its military had trained 20,000 troops for healthcare and construction efforts in Gaza. Jakarta has also provided humanitarian aid, including the delivery of 10,000 tonnes of rice in August last year, and has launched a long-term cultivation initiative in Sumatra and Kalimantan to support Palestinian food security.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 21:15

Kim Jong Un Gifts New Apartments To Families Of Soldiers Killed In Ukraine War

Kim Jong Un Gifts New Apartments To Families Of Soldiers Killed In Ukraine War

Last summer North Korea began for the first time airing footage which provided public confirmation that it was receiving many of its soldiers home in coffins after they served alongside Russian forces in the context of the Ukraine war.

It's believed that the some ten to fourteen thousand DPRK troops dispatched to assist Moscow had primarily fought in Russia's Kursk province, where they helped repel the previous six-month Ukrainian occupation of the southern border oblast (in 2024-2025).

On Monday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un unveiled that families of soldiers killed in the battle abroad would receive free new housing. He presided over a ribbon-cutting ceremony marking the completion of a new block of apartments for that purpose, state media reported Monday.

KCNA/Yonhap

"The new street has been built thanks to the ardent desire of our motherland that wishes that... its excellent sons, who defended the most sacred things by sacrificing their most valuable things, will live forever," Kim said in a speech, as cited by the Korean Central News Agency.

This comes after Kim last week having publicly declared he's ready to "unconditionally support" all of Russian President Vladimir Putin's policies and decisions.

"Before their death, the heroic martyrs must have pictured in their mind's eye their dear families living in the ever-prospering country," the North Korean leader said.

via KCNA

KCNA images also showed Kim touring the new apartments alongside his teenage daughter Ju Ae, believed to be the most likely future successor to Kim.

International reports based on South Korean intelligence estimates say that around 2,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed while fighting alongside Russia so far.

The apartments for families of fallen soldiers is a program clearly intended to create incentives for the military to support Pyongyang's foreign adventurism on behalf of Moscow, and to deflect potential criticism.

Ukraine has bitterly complained about the foreign contingencies helping Russia, and in previously claimed that North Korea could send up to 30,000 - though there's been little evidence of such a high figure.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 20:40

A Venezuelan-Like Oil Blockade Against Iran Could Enable The US To Divide-And-Rule RIC

A Venezuelan-Like Oil Blockade Against Iran Could Enable The US To Divide-And-Rule RIC

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The cascading consequences of such a blockade, which might not ultimately be imposed due it entailing a high risk of war with Iran, could simultaneously weaken Russia, India, and China.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump 2.0 is considering imposing a Venezuelan-like oil blockade against Iran. It hasn’t yet done so due to concerns that Iran might attack the US’ regional military assets and/or seize its Gulf allies’ oil tankers, with either scenario destabilizing the global oil market and spiking the risk of war, so it might never ultimately happen. If the US were to successfully impose such a blockade, however, then it might be able to adroitly divide-and-rule Russia, India, and China (RIC).

The US Wants To Replicate The Venezuelan Model In Iran” by coercing Iran into subordinating itself and its energy industry to the US. The “Trump Doctrine”, which is shaped by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby’s “Strategy of Denial”, seeks to deny strategic resources to the US’ rivals. Accordingly, it has an interest in cutting off China’s average import of 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day last year, which could hit its economy hard if they’re not replaced (and that might be difficult).

These exports could then be redirected to India, thus enabling India to more than replace its average import of 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil last month, with the revenue placed in an escrow account per the Venezuelan precedent for release to Iran if it cuts a nuclear and missile deal with the US. Through these means, India could zero out its import of Russian oil while raising the US’ role over its energy security exactly as Trump 2.0 wants, with the end result dealing incredible harm to RIC.

Russia’s budgetary revenue from such sales would be reduced and could only realistically be replaced in part through more sales to China, though that might not be as easy as it sounds. The UK is preparing a campaign to seize Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the English Channel after being emboldened by the US’ seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker near its coast. If Russia doesn’t impose unacceptable costs on the UK, and it didn’t impose any on the US for doing this, then its Baltic Sea tankers might never reach China.

Those from the Black Sea might not reach it either if the UK allies with Greece and Cyprus to cut off Russia’s “shadow fleet” from that vector too. Pipeline exports, which have limits to how much they can be scaled, would then be the only means for replacing part of Russia’s lost oil exports to India with China apart from relatively minimal tanker exports from the Far East. The resultant economic pressure on Russia and China might make them susceptible to lopsided deals with the US on Ukraine and trade.

As for India, it already entered into a partially lopsided deal with the US as regards the informal quid pro quo of it agreeing to zero out its import of Russian oil in exchange for their trade deal, and the US’ growing influence over India’s energy security could curtail its hard-earned strategic autonomy. This might then be leveraged for coercing a reduction in India’s purchase of Chinese goods and services so as to place more pressure on the People’s Republic to agree to its own lopsided trade deal with the US.

This worst-case scenario of the US’ dividing-and-ruling RIC can be averted by Iran deterring or breaking a US blockade on its oil in parallel with Russia doing the same with respect to any British one against its “shadow fleet”. These options require immense political will since they entail the potential cost of a hot war breaking out between Great Powers so it’s unclear whether they’ll be implemented, but likewise, so too might the US and UK ultimately back off from their possible blockades for the same reason.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 20:05

Pelosi Appears To Have Picked Their Candidate For President In 2028

Pelosi Appears To Have Picked Their Candidate For President In 2028

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) may be retiring from Congress at the end of this term, but she's not done trying to shape presidential races. The 85-year-old former House speaker has turned into what one former aide calls "a Gavin fan-girl," deploying her legendary donor network and political capital to boost California Gov. Gavin Newsom as a 2028 White House contender. The move lands as a calculated slight to Kamala Harris, who polls ahead of Newsom nationally but appears to have lost Pelosi's confidence after the 2024 debacle.

According to a report from Axios, Pelosi has spent months publicly and privately vouching for Newsom.

 "From the standpoint of leadership, vision, and values, knowledge of the issues, strategic thinking about how to get things done, he's masterful," she told The New Yorker. She told Vogue earlier this month, “I’ve seen him grow politically, I've also seen him have this beautiful family, and for all of us who love him, seeing him evolve has been wonderful to behold.”

She’s even trying to help Newsom shed the perception of coming from privilege, telling The Atlantic, "Everybody thinks of Gavin and a silver spoon. But that isn't right. He was a very hard worker in everything that he did, whether it was personally, professionally, and then civically."

This week, Pelosi told Politico that Newsom "would make a great president," though she added Democrats have many strong potential candidates. 

The hedge shouldn’t fool anyone. 

Pelosi isn’t likely to gush unless she's decided. Former aides say she's been eager to publicly vouch for Newsom whenever asked and has privately admired how he's navigated Trump "with a combination of defiance and charm." One former staffer said Pelosi "doesn't crush on many people" and added, "She's hardly ever wrong. When she says she sees something, it's a real thing."

Of course, Pelosi’s connection to Newsom isn’t limited to politics. Her brother-in-law was married to Newsom's aunt, and Pelosi frequently says she knew Newsom before he was born. Politically, they’ve been connected for years, as she's mentored him since his days as San Francisco mayor, watching him rise through California politics like a puppet master or a kingmaker.

While Pelosi is reportedly focused on helping Democrats retake the House in November and making Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaker, she’s clearly looking to the future and sees Newsom as the next leader of the party who will bring Democrats to the White House. This may be a significant vote of confidence for Newsom, but it’s also an undeniable betrayal of another California Democrat, Kamala Harris. 

Pelosi endorsed Harris quickly after Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, reportedly frustrating Barack Obama, who wanted a more open process.

The Obamas were not happy,” a Pelosi confidant told ABC’s Jonathan Karl for his book Retribution. 'This person summed up Obama's message to Pelosi as, essentially, "What the f*** did you just do?"' 

Harris lost badly to Trump, spending more than a billion dollars in the process, leaving many major donors deeply disillusioned with her. Pelosi’s support would have gone a long way to repair the damage, but Pelosi appears to have moved on. 

Harris leads the 2028 field with a 27.5 percent national polling average, according to Race to the White House, while Newsom trails at 22.7%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 9%, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 8.7%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 4.9%, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker at 3.4%.

Neither Newsom nor Harris has publicly announced their intent to seek the presidency, but both are reportedly considering, which makes Pelosi's public courtship of Newsom a calculated snub. Pelosi's endorsements carry weight with the donor class and party elites who decide primaries long before voters cast ballots. By elevating Newsom now, she's signaling to those constituencies where the smart money should flow.

Whether Pelosi's bet pays off depends on factors beyond her control. Newsom has baggage from California's struggles with homelessness, crime, and out-migration on his watch. Harris, meanwhile, carries the weight of a failed campaign but has name recognition and institutional support, and isn’t a white male — a huge plus for a party that has gone all in on identity politics. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 19:30

Why Your Personal Data Are Floating Around On The Darknet, Which Just Keeps Growing

Why Your Personal Data Are Floating Around On The Darknet, Which Just Keeps Growing

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In June 2025, police in Europe shut down a darknet marketplace for drugs called Archetyp Market, which had more than 600,000 users, and the following month the FBI announced that Operation Grayskull had led to the sentencing of 18 offenders to a total of 300 years for offenses relating to child sexual abuse material on the darknet.

An undated image of a bald researcher at security company DBI searching the darknet at an undisclosed location. DBI

The FBI maintains a Joint Criminal Opioid and Darknet Enforcement team, and in May 2025 it announced that 270 people had been arrested globally as part of Operation RapTor and that hundreds of pounds of fentanyl had been seized as part of an operation targeting drug traffickers on darknet websites.

But experts say the darknet—sometimes known as the dark web—keeps growing and is home to millions of megabytes of personal data, which are used by cybercriminals and ransomware gangs.

“You would be amazed how much personal data is drifting around on the darknet just from breach notifications,” Bob Erdman, associate vice president of research and development at cybersecurity company Fortra, based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, told The Epoch Times.

“It seems like every month you get a new breach notification from some company or website you’ve interacted with, and all those little pieces keep getting assembled to build a profile of you, and then get resold to someone who’s either going to try [to] attack you or try and use you to attack somebody else,” Erdman said.

Darknet Generation Gap

“When I speak with older Americans, many are shocked by the types of data on the darknet and how often it’s exposed or traded,” Chris Nyhuis, CEO at Vigilant, an Ohio-based cybersecurity firm and a human trafficking investigator, told The Epoch Times in an email.

For younger more technical generations there is ... often a sense of resignation,” Nyhuis said. “They’ve grown up with breaches, so data exposure feels almost inevitable to them.”

“Data released on the darknet is not a darknet problem, it just makes distributing data easier,” Nyhuis said.

He said he believes that companies are still not protecting data well enough.

Erdman said criminals were always trying to get access to logins and passwords, bitcoin addresses, and other data, which they would sell in darknet marketplaces that trade in stolen identities and compromised databases.

So how does the darknet work?

Nyhuis said the darknet is almost a “mirror image” of the internet most of us know, and that it even has its own search engines.

But it can only be accessed through the Tor browser, which provides secrecy and anonymity by passing messages through a network of connected Tor relays, which are specially configured computers.

Nyhuis said a simple way of understanding the darknet is imagining each Tor node as a house with numerous doors opening off of it, which are not visible.

“So if you walk in that house, and if someone’s monitoring that first door and you walk out a different one, then they’re not going to see you,” he said.

Silk Road Showed the Way

In the early days of the darknet, sites such as Silk Road began to operate and enable illicit marketplaces for narcotics and other illegal products and services.

Silk Road operated between January 2011 and October 2013. In May 2015, its 31-year-old founder, Ross Ulbricht, aka “Dread Pirate Roberts,” was jailed for life and ordered to forfeit $183 million.

Ross Ulbricht, creator of the website Silk Road, appears in an undated photograph made from his computer and presented as an exhibit during his trial in New York City in 2015. U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York/Handout via Reuters

Ulbricht created the blueprint that made such darknet marketplaces so successful, Brian Townsend, a retired Drug Enforcement Administration special agent who runs courses on the darknet, told The Epoch Times by email.

There is a myth that the darknet is hard to use, according to Missouri-based Townsend.

“In reality, the learning curve is very low, and it is quite easy to get on the dark web,” Townsend said. “With relative ease, people can buy and sell drugs, stolen credit cards, fake identities, child pornography, or pretty much anything else you can think of.”

In September 2022, Reed Churchill, 27, from Fayetteville, Arkansas, became a victim of the darknet when he took pills containing fentanyl that he had bought from a darknet website, thinking that they were oxycodone.

Since then, Churchill’s father, David Churchill, has been attempting to warn others.

“These are not good people you’re talking to on the darknet, whether it’s about drugs or pornography or whatever is on there,” he told the FBI. “Nobody on that side of the computer has any good intentions for you.”

In October 2024. Rajiv Srinivasan, 37, from Houston was jailed for 19 years and Michael Ta, 25, from Westminster, California, was jailed for 21 years for supplying the counterfeit M30 oxycodone pills containing fentanyl that killed Reed on a darknet website called Dark0de.

Nyhuis said there are people using the darknet for good reasons such as investigative journalism or the exposure of human rights abuses in totalitarian states.

“On the [darknet] there are people who say ‘I’m trying to be anonymous because I’m trying to fight evil’ and then there are the bad parts where ‘I’m trying to be anonymous because I want to do evil,’” he said. “Those are the two paths.”

‘Fighting Evil, or Doing Evil’

“The majority [of] uses of it are either fighting evil, or doing evil,” said Nyhuis, who said more darknet users have bad motives than have good ones.

Nyhuis said he has a theory that a lot of people who had time on their hands during the COVID-19 pandemic learned a lot about the darknet.

“Now people are setting up nodes left and right, and you have a much more anonymous environment,” he said.

According to him, it is now possible to use ChatGPT to create a Tor node.

It will walk you through the exact steps to do that, even give you the code that you need to copy and paste, and you can turn up a Tor node,” Nyhuis said.

There are an estimated 1.3 billion websites in the world. Delaware-based cybersecurity company DeepStrike estimates that only 0.01 percent of those are on the darknet but that Tor traffic rose to 3 million users per day in 2025.

So why can we not just ban Tor browsers and switch off the darknet?

China has tried to use its Great Firewall to block the darknet, but with limited success.

“China has tried blocking known Tor nodes to try to throttle traffic,” Nyhuis said. “But it’s really a cat-and-mouse game. There’s no main kill switch.”

An undated image of a computer displaying a message from the Chinese Great Firewall at an internet cafe in Beijing. Ng Han Guan/AP

So rather than try to kill off the darknet—which appears to be impossible—intelligence services and law enforcement are learning to live with it and deal with the threats within it.

“I can assure you that law enforcement is active on these [darknet] marketplaces,” Townsend said. “We aren’t just watching from the sidelines.”

“Investigators are embedded in these communities, often operating undercover to identify the players behind the screen,” he said.

“The international law enforcement community also works incredibly well together, sharing intelligence across borders to combat these global criminal networks,” Townsend said. “Because the darknet doesn’t recognize national boundaries, our response has to be just as seamless.”

Last year, ransomware negotiator Mark Lance told The Epoch Times that attackers usually leave ransom notes within a targeted information technology system, which will usually advise the victim to download a Tor browser, go to a website on the darknet, and initiate communications with the attackers.

But even when law enforcement learns about these darknet websites, closing them down is not necessarily the solution.

“Shutting down one darknet communication channel rarely solves the problem because hackers can quickly bring another one online, either from backups or [by] simply moving to another platform,” Nyhuis said.

The darknet is just a tool and even if a specific site is taken offline criminals can spin up another one quickly.”

Erdman said he does not see the darknet going away as long as there is a market for drugs, stolen data, and child sexual abuse images.

“Even if Tor was ripped down tomorrow, something would be built back up in its place,” he said.

“It’s a lot of work for governments to crack down,” Erdman said. “You can try and limit it, you can try and block the traffic ... but users will find a way to get around it.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 18:55

"Meat Grinder": Behind The Burnout And High Turnover Rates In The AI Industry

"Meat Grinder": Behind The Burnout And High Turnover Rates In The AI Industry

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times,

Across the artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain, insiders describe a precarious, high-turnover workforce with limited support and stability.

This “invisible” human labor that labels data, evaluates outputs, and filters harmful material has become a revolving door of talent that navigates high-pressure gigs and burnout. Moreover, workers and industry experts say this talent churn can degrade the very AI models workers are paid to improve.

Across the board, workers who are hired to support, evaluate, or operationalize AI systems face similar challenges: high-stress environments that often involve complex tasks, unrealistic timelines, job instability, and low wages.

It’s no secret that the tech industry has long suffered from high turnover rates. Numbers vary, but many studies put the average rate of talent churn in the tech sector at between 13 percent and 18 percent.

This becomes clear when considering the cost of replacing tech talent, which can be up to 150 percent of a worker’s salary, including recruitment expenses, onboarding time, productivity losses, and impacts on customer relationships.

Some believe that the loss of institutional knowledge alone makes worker retention critical.

People love to talk about the ‘magic’ of AI, but the work culture behind it is a meat grinder. I’ve seen talent turnover in model evaluation hit record highs because the work is repetitive and psychologically draining,” Barry Kunst, vice president of marketing at Solix Technologies, told The Epoch Times.

“When you lose a lead researcher to churn, you don’t just lose a body; you lose the ‘why’ behind the model’s safety guardrails,” Kunst said.

This is why he’s adamant about AI workforce stability, which he said correlates directly with model reliability: “If you’re rotating contractors every six months to keep labor costs low, your data governance will fail, period.”

Sovic Chakrabarti, the director of digital marketing agency Icy Tales, said, “Team turnover is more common than people expect.

“In some groups, especially those tied to model training, evaluation, or data labeling pipelines, churn can happen every few months. Short contracts, project-based funding, and constant reorganization mean people cycle in and out quickly,” he told The Epoch Times.

A technician works at an Amazon Web Services AI data center in New Carlisle, Ind., on Oct. 2, 2025. Noah Berger for AWS/Reuters

Chakrabarti has worked on the development and support side of AI systems long enough to see patterns that, as he put it, “rarely make it into public discussions.”

“That [workforce] churn absolutely leads to lost knowledge,” he said. “Important context about why a dataset was filtered a certain way, why a safety rule exists, or why a model behaved oddly in testing often lives in someone’s head.”

When that person leaves, documentation rarely captures the full story, according to Chakrabarti.  “New hires inherit systems without understanding the original tradeoffs, which can quietly introduce risks,” he said.

The Human Cost

Burnout rates among information technology (IT) workers are high. LeadDev’s Engineering Leadership Report 2025 found that 22 percent of the 617 polled engineering leaders and developers felt critically burned out at work.

An additional 24 percent of respondents reported feeling “moderately” burned out, while 33 percent reported low levels of burnout.

Some of this is driven by job-security fears after two years of layoffs at big tech companies, but the pay for many of the workers fueling the AI revolution is often low.

The Alphabet Workers Union (AWU), Communications Workers of America (CWA), and TechEquity led a study on the working conditions of U.S.-based data workers and found conditions similar to those of tech contractors in developing countries.

In a survey of 160 U.S. data workers, 86 percent worried about being able to pay their bills, and 25 percent relied on public assistance to get by. The same group reported a median hourly wage of $15, with a median annual salary of $22,620.

Eighty-five percent of the study group said they’re expected to be “on call” for work, but only 30 percent reported being paid for this time. More than a quarter of respondents reported spending more than 8 hours per week on call.

“If there’s anything I wanted the general public to know, it is that there are low paid people [in the United States] who are not even treated as humans—just little more than employee ID numbers —out there making the 1 billion dollar, trillion dollar AI systems that are supposed to lead our entire society and civilization into the future,” Kirn Gill II, a search quality rater working on Google products at Telus, told the CWA.

Chakrabarti said the work culture behind AI fuels these challenges.

There is real pressure to keep labor costs low. I have seen unrealistic timelines, understaffed teams, and expectations to ‘do more with less’ while the stakes keep rising. That tension creates stress, especially when the systems affect millions of users,” he said.

Chat GPT app icon is seen on a smartphone screen, in Chicago, on Aug. 4, 2025. AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, File

He added that being part of the shadow workforce behind AI can also be psychologically demanding.

You carry responsibility without always having authority or time to do things properly. ... As tools evolve, roles shift fast, and many people feel replaceable even while being essential,” Chakrabarti said.

Nicky Zhu, an AI Interaction Product Manager at Dymesty, agrees that the cost-containment pressure on data workers is “unrealistic” and is fueling the burnout phenomenon.

“Companies employ contractors instead of using permanent staff, mandate 60-hour crunch weeks, and expect rapid learning of intricate systems. I have witnessed multiple capable engineers exit the field of AI completely because of the high levels of instability and the unmanageable workload,” Zhu told The Epoch Times.

Zhu said the mental strain associated with data work is often unacknowledged.

“Staff are regularly exposed to disturbing material during safety testing, including assessing harmful content. Knowing that your work impacts millions of users increases the stress. The combination of rapid AI development, job uncertainty, and high turnover is mentally overwhelming,” she said.

In the data worker conditions analysis, respondents reported limited or no access to mental health benefits, despite being what the study authors called a “first line of defense, protecting millions of people from harmful content and imperfect AI systems.”

Only 23 percent of data workers surveyed reported having employer-provided health benefits.

The International Labor Organization noted that large language AI models such as ChatGPT and Claude still require “invisible workers” who fine-tune AI responses, mitigate biases, and eliminate toxic or disturbing content behind the scenes.

“As a result, workers are routinely exposed to graphic violence, hate speech, child exploitation, and other objectionable material. Such constant exposure can take a toll on their mental health and trigger post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and reduced ability to feel empathy,” the International Labor Organization stated.

Revolving Door Risks

A knock-on effect of AI’s constant labor change is an increase in cybersecurity risks.

“Labor turnover literally impacts the quality, safety, and reliability of models,” Janero Washington, education director at ACSMI Cybersecurity Certification, told The Epoch Times.

“Large turnover interferes with domain knowledge, delays in the iteration process, and the probability of missing key details in the development.”

Washington said this could have a “direct influence on the accuracy and strength of [AI] models, particularly during deployment phases.”

He added that low labor costs are the primary pressure point in AI projects, which tend to prioritize cost-efficiency over balanced investment in skilled labor.

“It may result in corners being cut, including overworking teams, unrealistic deadlines, or having to use less experienced hires to keep budgets,” he said.

Zhu has seen firsthand how workforce churn affects the efficiency of AI tools: “Knowledge is lost faster than it is documented. Important information about model edge cases, limitations, safety procedures, and related details is lost when contractors leave after six or 12 months.”

When she started her current position, Zhu found that three teams had attempted to resolve the same set of problems using an AI feature that had already been built.

“Still, no one had documented the rationale for the different design decisions. Ultimately, we had to remake previously developed design solutions for problems that had already been solved. This is an all-too-common reality for the industry,” she said.

The data security platform Cyberhaven observed that 24 hours before a layoff or employee resignation, organizations can experience a 720 percent surge in data exfiltration. This includes everything from downloading sensitive files to forwarding emails or copying customer lists, all of which can have significant consequences.

Washington said that critical knowledge or details can be easily lost when a data team is reliant on a short-term contract or experiencing a high talent turnover.

“This affects continuity of knowledge of datasets, edge cases, or versioning issues, causing inefficiencies and possibly a rework of the same issue,” he said.

Chakrabarti agreed. “When teams are stretched thin or constantly rebuilding, issues get patched instead of deeply solved,” he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 17:45

The Obama Administration's Prostitution Scandal And The Ruemmler-Epstein Connection

The Obama Administration's Prostitution Scandal And The Ruemmler-Epstein Connection

Remember Obama's 2012 Colombian prostitution scandal? Turns out, Jeffrey Epstein was involved...

Newly released Department of Justice documents from the Epstein files have exposed a previously unknown connection between a 2012 White House advance-team scandal in Cartagena, Colombia, and Kathryn Ruemmler - the former Obama White House counsel who later became Goldman Sachs’ top lawyer.

Ruemmler resigned from Goldman late last week, after the latest Epstein document dump revealed her extensive, affectionate, and years-long correspondence with the convicted sex offender. The emails show she called him “Uncle Jeffrey,” accepted expensive gifts, and turned to him for advice on sensitive legal and reputational matters - including how to respond to a 2014 Washington Post report that accused her of helping suppress evidence of prostitution involving a rich kid White House aide whose daddy was a huge Obama donor. 

The WaPo report, by all accounts, cost Ruemmler a job as Obama's Attorney General

The 2012 Cartagena Prostitution Scandal

In April 2012, ahead of President Obama’s trip to the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, at least 20 Secret Service agents, military personnel, and others were involved in hiring prostitutes. The scandal led to multiple firings and disciplinary actions.

A lesser-known element involved Jonathan Dach, a 25-year-old Yale Law student and unpaid White House advance-team volunteer (son of prominent Democratic donor Leslie Dach). Hotel records obtained by investigators showed a prostitute was checked into Dach’s room at the Hilton Cartagena shortly after midnight on April 3, 2012.

Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan briefed White House counsel Kathryn Ruemmler on the evidence. The White House conducted a review, interviewed advance-team members (including Dach), and publicly declared “no indication of any misconduct” by White House personnel. Dach was later cleared and went on to work at the State Department.

More recently, Dach was found to have 'chronically violated state rules' in his role as former chief of staff to Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) by using a state vehicle as his personal car for nearly two years "and driving at speeds constituting reckless driving under Connecticut law."

The 2014 Washington Post Revival and Ruemmler’s Response

In October 2014, while Ruemmler was in private practice at Latham & Watkins and reportedly under consideration to replace Eric Holder as Attorney General - WaPo published new details. Reporters Carol D. Leonnig and David Nakamura revealed that the White House had received specific evidence (hotel records and witness accounts) implicating a White House advance-team member but had not fully investigated or disclosed it.

On October 9, 2014, Epstein emailed Ruemmler: “Doing fine. Was talking to reporters until late in the morning last night. Trying to isolate/contain wapo.”

On October 17, 2014, Ruemmler forwarded Epstein a draft of her response to the Post reporter and asked for his input. In the draft she downplayed the allegations, writing:

“The whole thing is ridiculous - they had to obtain the record ‘under the table’ because the last thing the Hilton wanted to do is to voluntarily give over info implicating the privacy of their guests. The procedure for checking in prostitutes is hardly rigorous.”

Epstein replied with suggestions, including the line: “Important point.”

Ruemmler ultimately withdrew from consideration for Attorney General on October 24, 2014 - one week after the email exchange.

Finally, here is the letter that then-Obama White House Deputy Press Secretary Eric Schultz sent in coordination with Ruemmler, to Carol Leonnig who wrote the WaPo article exposing Jonathan Dach's prostitution scandal, where they beg her to "from this point forward refrain from using Mr. Dach’s name," as "He has served his purposes for your reporting—repeating his name in connection with these allegations only deepens the wounds he has already suffered."

Beyond the obvious questions over the Obama admin prostitution scandal cover-up - which Congress/DOJ should finally ask - the most important question is: why did Obama's top lawyer summon the help of disgraced pedophile Epstein in planning her defense against the Obama admin's biggest prostitution scandal?

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 17:10

Epstein-itis

Epstein-itis

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"If you tolerate the intolerable, you’re communicating that it’s okay to mistreat you."

- Aimee Terese on X

Did you think the American zeitgeist - our collective spirit plus our thinking - could not get crazier?

Gird your loins. It’s getting worse by the hour.

The Jeffrey Epstein files suggest that people will do anything and that people will believe anything.

Pizza, hot dogs, white sharks. . . boys, girls, babies, teens, Russian whores. . . celebrities by the score. . . billionaires. . . cannibal orgies. . . vivisection parlors. . . adrenochrome. . . blood. . . dead bodies. . . demon worship. . . a depraved and insane global leadership. . . lemme outa here!

I don’t know what’s real in Epstein and what’s not — but neither do you. What you ought to know is that the colossal inventory of Epstein files is perhaps the greatest instrument of mass mind-fuckery ever seen in the history of Western Civ. How interesting, too, that the deluge of material coincides exactly with the critical capability emergence of Artificial Intelligence as a tool for the manipulation of documentary evidence. And also consider all the years since 2019 that interested parties have had to mess with, destroy, possibly fabricate, and catalog all this stuff.

Apparently, the Woke-Jacobin-Marxist eruption was not enough to destabilize the consensus about reality.

The absurdities you were asked to swallow about all-women-are-women-including-men. . . the police killed George Floyd. . . mostly peaceful riots. . . the vaccine is safe and effective. . . the free-est, fairest elections ever. . . “Joe Biden” is president. . . the border is secure. . . speaking English is white supremacy - did not push America deeply enough into Crazyland.

More was required to completely demolish your sense of an ordered world.

Donald Trump was correct, at least, that releasing the Epstein files would bring on more chaos than clarity and impede the effort to get our country back on the rails with an economic engine based on the production of goods instead of financialized hyper-casino voodoo. Well, now we’re in a maelstrom of innuendo, code-talk, gossip, and redaction, and you can hardly begin to sort it out. The Attorney General of the USA, bless her heart, has already botched the management of this monster.

Epstein’s relations with Israel and its Mossad intel blob, along with his connections to global banking interests, have aroused the zestiest breakout of antipathy to Jews since the SS busied itself loading the crematoriums of Europe. Hatred of Jews is a recurring symptom of civilization distress. But it is also possible that Israel has behaved badly — and it is certain that many political intellectuals are reevaluating the way that nation was established after World War Two. To some degree, Israel has become a paranoid state (though even paranoiacs have real enemies).

Where does that go from here? Thoughtful people are pessimistic. For sure, they resent the money and influence seeded by Israel in the US Congress. They might be concerned as well about all the other interests pounding money into American politics. Grift is everywhere, and everyone can see it now. The looming end of the grift orgy is probably behind the Democratic Party’s current psychotic disposition. Having lost its 20th century base of factory workers, the party has had to work the extreme margins of American life to build a coalition of the feckless, the reckless, the brainless, and the shameless. They have become the party’s wards in a reimagined patronage system even more pernicious than the old one under characters like Boss Tweed and Mayor Richard Daley-the-First of Chicago.

The Democratic Party can’t win elections without rigging them and it’s astonishing that they’ve gotten away with building such sturdy armature of ballot fraud in plain sight with next to zero objection from the supposed guardians in officialdom. The features of it are so arrant that a political class with any sense or dignity would have laughed it straight into the criminal courts — and its perps straight into the penitentiary. The fraud became especially acute with the 2020 and 2022 elections. It is about to be revealed in the troves of evidence extracted lately from Fulton County, GA, and presently from Maricopa County, AZ. These birds are cooked. Not a few people will eventually go to jail over these shenanigans. And meanwhile, the SAVE Act pulsates in the Senate like a lump of kryptonite.

Now, you may realize that a political party based entirely on socially marginal persons — many of them mentally ill — will adopt a roster of ideas and policies that are patently marginal, which is to say, crazy. The party elders are now straining to eliminate some of that. Last week, Barack Obama unloaded on California Governor Gavin Newsom’s botched handling of the state’s epic homeless crisis.

“We should recognize that the average person doesn’t want to have to navigate around a tent city in the middle of downtown,” the ex-president said in an interview with progressive YouTuber Brian Tyler Cohen.

Hillary Clinton, dropping in on the Munich Security Conference, said, amazingly, “There is a legitimate reason to have a debate about things like migration. It went too far, it’s been disruptive and destabilizing. . .” before tossing in some Woke word-salad:

“. . . and it needs to be fixed in a humane way with secure borders that don’t torture and kill people and how we’re going to have a strong family structure because it is at the base of civilization.”

Say, what. . . ?

But then, poor Hillary, who can’t help being a Cluster-B psycho, turned up moderating a panel at the same Munich meet-up to take up the issue: “Girls Just Want to Have Fundamental Rights: Fighting the Global Pushback.

To nail down her point, Hillary brought onstage as the featured speaker, Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE), known previously as Tim McBride, a man.

Hillary and Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE) at Munich

The insanity is, of course, self-evident.

The take-away from all this. They’re not trying hard enough to get their minds right.

And in the meantime, America and the other nations of Western Civ, must contend with the gigantic trip laid on them that is the Epstein files.

We know the newspapers and cable news channels are hopeless.

Is there anyone or any sense-making institution that can usher us through this nightmare back into the daylight?

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 15:30

Coffee Tied To Lower Dementia Risk, Harvard-MIT Study Finds

Coffee Tied To Lower Dementia Risk, Harvard-MIT Study Finds

New research published in JAMA reveals a strong reason to feel even better about being three to four espressos deep before the cash market opens in New York. 

Here's the short version of the findings:

  • Caffeinated coffee was linked to lower dementia risk. Comparing the highest vs lowest consumption groups, the study reported a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.89), which means higher caffeinated coffee intake was associated with lower risk.

  • People also reported less subjective cognitive decline. The higher-intake group had 7.8% prevalence vs 9.5% in the lower-intake group (prevalence ratio 0.85).

  • The "sweet spot" looked moderate. The most pronounced differences showed up around 2 to 3 cups per day of caffeinated coffee.

  • Decaf did not show a significant association with dementia risk.

The long-running study, led by researchers from Mass General Brigham, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and the Broad Institute of MIT, tracked 131,821 U.S. adults for four decades and documented 11,033 dementia cases. One major finding was a very clear pattern: adults who drank about three cups of coffee per day, or one to two cups of tea, had a much lower risk of dementia and more favorable cognitive outcomes over their lifetimes. Decaf, however, did not show the same relationship.

Both male and female participants who drank more than three cups of caffeinated coffee per day had an 18% lower risk of dementia compared with those who reported little or no daily caffeinated coffee consumption.

"When searching for possible dementia prevention tools, we thought something as prevalent as coffee may be a promising dietary intervention - and our unique access to high-quality data through studies that have been going on for more than 40 years allowed us to follow through on that idea," said senior author Daniel Wang, associate scientist with the Channing Division of Network Medicine in the Mass General Brigham Department of Medicine and assistant professor at Harvard Medical School.

Wang noted, "While our results are encouraging, it's important to remember that the effect size is small and there are lots of important ways to protect cognitive function as we age. Our study suggests that caffeinated coffee or tea consumption can be one piece of that puzzle."

The cognitive upside of caffeinated coffee is clear.

Now take it up a notch: start with premium whole-bean coffee, then level it up significantly with a smart blend of four ingredients: C8 MCT Oil, Ashwagandha, Alpha GPC, and L-Theanine. The result is steadier focus and no scattered brain.

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IQ Smart Blend Coffee: Tastes great, plus four amazing ingredients

What the four ingredients are (and why they're infused with the bean):

  1. C8 MCT Oil: A type of medium chain fat (caprylic acid), often marketed for quick energy and ketosis support.

  2. Ashwagandha: An herb often marketed for stress support and calmer mood.

  3. Alpha GPC: choline compound (a building block for acetylcholine, a neurotransmitter tied to memory and attention).

  4. L-Theanine: An amino acid naturally found in tea. Often paired with caffeine because it may help you feel calm and focused, and reduce "coffee jitters."

Thank you for your support.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 15:30

NASA Awards Next 2 Private Astronaut Missions To International Space Station

NASA Awards Next 2 Private Astronaut Missions To International Space Station

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

NASA has awarded its next two private astronaut missions to the International Space Station (ISS) in as many weeks, marking a further expansion of the private sector in low Earth orbit and continuing Administrator Jared Isaacman’s intention to make the most use of the orbiting outpost.

In this image from video, the 11 International Space Station crew members representing Expedition 70 (red shirts) and Axiom Space 3 (dark blue suits) crews gather for a farewell ceremony calling down to mission controllers on Earth on Feb. 2, 2024. NASA via AP

The latest mission was awarded to private space station company Vast.

Launching no earlier than the summer of 2027 on a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft, it will be NASA’s sixth private astronaut mission to the space station overall and is expected to last 14 days.

Vast is honored to have been selected by NASA for the sixth private astronaut mission to the International Space Station,” Vast CEO Max Haot said in a press release. “Leveraging the remaining life of the International Space Station with science and research-led commercial crewed missions is a critical part of the transition to commercial space stations and fully unlocking the orbital economy.”

The company said it would plan “a robust science and research portfolio” for the mission, focusing on biology, biotechnology, physical sciences, human research, and technology demonstrations. It also said the mission would “generate invaluable insights into the infrastructure and processes required for Vast to safely accomplish human spaceflight missions,” and deepen its collaborative relationship with NASA and international space agency partners as it continues its campaign to have its proposed Haven-2 station chosen as the successor to the ISS.

Vast’s single-module station, Haven-1, is slated to be launched into orbit in early 2027.

Now, this private astronaut mission to the space station will follow one awarded to Axiom Space, targeting a launch no earlier than January 2027.

Announced on Jan. 30, it marks the fifth private mission Axiom will undertake. Its previous four missions featured 14 private and government astronauts, including two European Space Agency astronauts. Those missions were led by retired NASA astronauts who left the agency to join the private sector: Michael Lopez-Alegria, Axiom Space’s chief astronaut, and Peggy Whitson, Axiom Space’s vice president of human spaceflight.

Axiom missions delivered the first female Saudi astronaut and first Turkish astronaut into space, as well as carried the first Saudi, Indian, Polish, and Hungarian astronauts to the ISS.

Axiom Space has also been developing its own commercial space station and new spacesuits that NASA intends to use for moon walks.

Meanwhile, this will be Vast’s first private astronaut mission with NASA.

“Private astronaut missions represent more than access to the International Space Station—they create opportunities for new ideas, companies, and capabilities that further enhance American leadership in low Earth orbit and open doors for what’s next,” NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said in a press release. “We’re proud to welcome Vast to this growing community of commercial partners. Each new entrant brings unique strengths that fuel a dynamic, innovative marketplace as we advance research and technology and prepare for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.”

Neither mission has announced a crew yet. NASA made it clear that each company would propose four crew members for it and its international partners to review and approve.

Once a crew is approved and confirmed, the astronauts will train for their mission with NASA, its international partners, and SpaceX for their flight.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 14:30

Ship Orders From South Korea Are Surging Thanks To U.S. Fees On Chinese-Made Ships

Ship Orders From South Korea Are Surging Thanks To U.S. Fees On Chinese-Made Ships

South Korea is tightening the race with China in global shipbuilding after U.S. plans to curb Chinese-built vessels disrupted order flows and redirected demand , according to Nikkei

Worldwide new orders fell 27% in 2025 to 56.42 million compensated gross tonnage (CGT) — the first annual drop in two years — according to U.K.-based Clarksons Research.

China remained No. 1 but saw orders tumble 35% to 35.36 million CGT, shrinking its share to 62.7%. South Korea, ranked second, moved the other way: orders climbed 8% to 11.59 million CGT, lifting its share to 20.6%. Japan, in third, recorded a 53% plunge to 2.77 million CGT, with its slice slipping to 4.9%.

The shift followed a U.S. announcement last April outlining fees on Chinese-built ships entering American ports starting in October 2025. Although the policy was delayed for a year after a U.S.-China summit in late October, uncertainty had already prompted global shipping companies to hesitate on new Chinese orders.

A unit of China State Shipbuilding Corp. said it was disadvantaged in contract talks last summer, opening the door for South Korean yards to win more large container ship deals. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering cited weaker demand for Chinese shipyards as a key reason for its recent surge in orders.

Nikkei writes that the company posted record results for the year ended December: revenue rose 17% to roughly 29 trillion won ($20.1 billion), while net profit doubled to about 3 trillion won.

Government-backed workforce initiatives have also supported the industry. Seoul opened a training center in Indonesia in 2024 to prepare skilled workers, including Korean language instruction, before dispatching them to local yards. Shipbuilders have raised wages and introduced AI tools to ease labor strain.

Foreign employment in South Korea’s shipbuilding sector hit a record 22,824 at the end of 2024 — about four times the level five years earlier — with foreigners making up more than 20% of the workforce.

Japan, meanwhile, has struggled to capture orders shifting away from China. Data from the Japan Ship Exporters' Association show export contracts in 2025 fell 20% to 8.93 million gross tons, marking a fourth straight year of decline. Limited yard capacity, slipways booked through around 2029, and labor shortages have constrained growth and pushed up costs.

Looking ahead, global demand is expected to rebound in 2026 as stricter environmental rules accelerate orders for vessels powered by next-generation fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering has set a 2026 order target of $23.3 billion, up 26% from this year, citing steady demand for new builds and fleet replacements.

China is working to regain momentum. In December, Cosco Group placed 50 billion yuan ($7.23 billion) in orders with China State Shipbuilding Corp., underscoring coordinated support among state-owned enterprises.

Japan is also attempting a reset. Imabari Shipbuilding recently completed its acquisition of Japan Marine United to streamline operations. The government aims to double domestic shipbuilding capacity to 18 million gross tons by 2035, seeking to narrow the wide gap with South Korea and China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 14:00

Strait Showdown: Iran Launches "Smart Control" Exercise At Oil Transit Point

Strait Showdown: Iran Launches "Smart Control" Exercise At Oil Transit Point

Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) kicked off naval drills Monday in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to state media.

The exercise, dubbed "Smart Control of Hormuz Strait," is being carried out by IRGC naval forces under the direct supervision of the Guards' top command, state television reported, with semi-official Tasnim news agency describing the drills as testing combat readiness against "possible security and military threats." Energy markets are watching closely.

IRNA: IRGC Navy conducts a hybrid, live exercise dubbed "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz."

Under the supervision of IRGC Commander-in-Chief Major General Mohammad Pakpour, a state media press release described the exercise further as "A rapid, decisive, and comprehensive response to maritime security threats form the core focus of the intelligence and operational components of the units deployed during the exercise."

Indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran have lately resumed after collapsing when Israel launched strikes on Iran in June 2025, igniting a 12-day conflict that included US attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities - with another round of negotiations scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva, with Oman serving as mediator.

The timing is no coincidence, given that late last week President Trump announced he was dispatching a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, while continuing to warn that military action against Iran remains on the table.

The IRGC has been conducing sporadic and in some cases unannounced drills in regional waters in order to demonstrate to Washington the Islamic Republic's military readiness.

Two weeks ago, when some of the first drills kicked off, US Central Command (CENTCOM) warned the IRGC it better be careful in the vicinity of US naval assets.

"We will not tolerate unsafe IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) actions including overflight of U.S. military vessels engaged in flight operations, low-altitude or armed overflight of U.S. military assets when intentions are unclear, highspeed boat approaches on a collision course with U.S. military vessels, or weapons trained at U.S. forces," CENTCOM said at the time.

"US forces acknowledge Iran's right to operate professionally in international airspace and waters," it added, and noted that "any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near U.S. forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization," the statement had warned.

Source: Getty Images/iStockphoto

None of Iran's drills or threat of counterstrike have deterred the ongoing Pentagon build-up in the Middle East with an eye on Iran, however. One thing the White House should be able to perceive, however, is that any military action against Tehran is going to clearly be much more complex, and harder, than some one-off mission in Venezuela.

The potential for massive blow-back and for things to go seriously awry is much greater in the case of a potential US conflict with Iran.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 13:00

Why Firing 9% Of The Federal Workforce Didn't Move The Needle

Why Firing 9% Of The Federal Workforce Didn't Move The Needle

Authored by James Hickman via SchiffSovereign.com,

In January 2025, the federal government employed about 3 million people. By November, that number had fallen by roughly 270,000 workers — a reduction of about 9%.

According to the Cato Institute, that was the largest peacetime federal workforce reduction EVER.

More than 150,000 employees took the “Fork in the Road” buyout offer to resign or retire. Tens of thousands more were laid off outright. Entire offices were emptied. Agencies that had been growing for decades shrank to staffing levels not seen since 2014.

And yet, despite historic federal layoffs, government spending went UP last year.

The federal government spent $7 trillion in Fiscal Year 2025— roughly $300 billion more than the year before. Bear in mind, 2025 was the year that DOGE was supposed to take a chainsaw to the budget and cut spending.

This is not a failure of DOGE. It’s a revelation about the actual problem.

The total federal payroll— every salary, every benefit, for every civilian federal employee (excluding the military)— comes to about $336 billion a year— less than 5% of total federal spending.

In other words, you could fire every federal employee tomorrow— every bureaucrat, every regulator, every paper-pusher in Washington— and 95% of the spending would continue as if nothing happened.

That’s because around 60% of the budget is mandatory spending— Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid— programs that pay out automatically based on laws that were passed decades ago. Congress doesn’t vote on these expenditures each year. The checks just go out.

Then there’s interest on the national debt, which in total runs about $1.2 trillion per year. It’s the second-largest line item in the entire federal budget, bigger than Medicare, bigger than national defense.

(The government uses a lower number called “net” interest; they exclude hundreds of billions in interest owed to Social Security and military retirees. But unless they plan on screwing those people over, that interest still has to be paid. So, we use the “gross” interest number and not “net” interest).

All of these obligations grow automatically, every year, regardless of who’s in charge or how many people show up to work.

Social Security alone grew by over $100 billion last year. Interest payments grew by another nearly $100 billion. Those two-line items, by themselves, swallowed more than the entire savings DOGE could theoretically achieve by cutting the workforce.

In fact, according to the Congressional Budget Office, more than 80% of projected spending growth over the next decade comes from Social Security, federal healthcare programs, and interest on the debt.

This is the structural problem nobody in Washington wants to talk about honestly: America’s deficit problem isn’t exclusively because of bad decisions today. It’s a failure to address bad decisions made years ago… decades ago– commitments that are baked into law, growing on autopilot, funded by borrowing roughly $2 trillion every year.

In an ideal world, Congress would address these entitlement programs directly. They are, after all, the biggest driver of the problem. But reforming Social Security or Medicare is the political third rail— nobody wants to touch it.

But there are other ways to move the needle as well.

The $38+ trillion national debt is manageable as long as the economy grows faster than the debt— which right now is not happening. But America still has absurdly strong economic potential to make that happen.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated that roughly 10% of the entire federal budget— about $600 billion per year— is outright fraud. Not waste. Not inefficiency. Fraud. And much of that fraud is within entitlement programs— the welfare fraud that came to light in Minnesota, the hundreds of billions in Medicare and Medicaid fraud that have been documented for years.

So, reducing fraud would be extremely helpful. Stop paying criminals!! It shouldn’t be that hard.

Then they can take a hatchet to the regulatory maze that strangles productivity; this would substantially reduce the deficit and boost real economic growth— putting America in striking distance of growing the economy faster than the debt.

To its credit, DOGE proved that the federal government could function with far fewer employees.

After the historic reduction in federal employees, services didn’t collapse.

The IRS still processed returns. Air traffic controllers still showed up. The essential machinery of government kept running with 9% fewer people.

That confirms what many have long suspected: a significant portion of federal workers exist to justify their own existence.

But DOGE also proved something far more uncomfortable. Whenever the executive branch tries to go beyond workforce cuts and tackle the spending itself— even fraudulent spending— someone files a lawsuit, and a judge issues an injunction.

Federal judges blocked DOGE from accessing Treasury payment systems. A coalition of 20 state attorneys general sued to halt layoffs at over a dozen agencies. Even relatively modest cuts were tied up in litigation for months.

The legal system functions as a ratchet: spending can go up easily, but it almost never comes down.

Ultimately, the spending trajectory won’t change until Congress decides to root out fraud, cut spending across the board, and stop obstructing economic growth.

But Congress won’t act until voters force them to do so— which, based on the current state of American politics, isn’t happening anytime soon.

The window to fix this relatively painlessly is still open. But it’s narrowing. Within seven years, Social Security’s trust funds will be exhausted, and the national debt will exceed $50 trillion. At that point, the math won’t just be uncomfortable. It will be unavoidable.

We can hope they figure it out. But hope isn’t a strategy. And that’s what a good Plan B is all about— ensuring your family’s financial future doesn’t depend on Congress suddenly discovering fiscal discipline after decades of proving they have none.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 12:30

Waste Of The Day: Secret Settlements Get Taxpayer Money

Waste Of The Day: Secret Settlements Get Taxpayer Money

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Eight Massachusetts state agencies and 13 colleges spent $6.8 million to settle grievances, partly in secret, brought by their own employees from 2019 to 2024, according to a Jan. 16 report from State Auditor Diana DiZoglio. 

At least 80 of the 263 settlements contain confidentiality language such as a nondisclosure agreement — to keep certain details confidential between the two parties — which the audit claims is banned by state guidelines. 

Key facts: The Massachusetts Port Authority transit agency was responsible for 11 of the settlements, costing taxpayers $1.7 million. Most of the money came from a $1.4 million settlement in 2022 with an employee who alleged they were denied a promotion because of their gender. The details are sealed by an NDA.

Six of the confidential settlements involved alleged sexual harassment, and two involved alleged racial discrimination. Most of the others were about violations of collective bargaining agreements and employees who were fired without cause.

NDAs were seemingly used on an arbitrary basis. None of the colleges and state agencies included in the audit had a written policy explaining when confidentiality language should be used, except the inspector general’s office.

“By not having a documented policy on the use of confidentiality language in state employee settlement agreements, there is a risk that confidentiality language may be abused to cover up harassment; discrimination; or other inappropriate, unlawful, or unethical behaviors, potentially allowing perpetrators to continue to remain in their positions and engage in further inappropriate, unlawful, or unethical behavior,” auditor DiZoglio wrote.

All of the colleges and state agencies receive legal assistance from the state attorney general’s office. The office’s guidelines prohibit nondisclosure agreements, and the attorneys told auditors that all state agencies were made aware of the guidelines. 

DiZoglio argued that the NDAs may not even be enforceable. In June 2013, Suffolk County Superior Court sided with the Boston Globe newspaper in ruling that settlements between state agencies and their employees are public records.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com

Background: The audit is a follow-up to a 2025 report that found 75 state agencies had spent $41 million on more than 2,000 employee settlements from 2010 to 2022.

Summary: Massachusetts’ NDAs hurt the public twice. They essentially use taxpayer funds to cover up potentially unethical behavior perpetrated using taxpayer funds.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 11:40

Pentagon Threatens To Blacklist Anthropic As 'Supply Chain Risk' Over Guardrails On Military Use

Pentagon Threatens To Blacklist Anthropic As 'Supply Chain Risk' Over Guardrails On Military Use
  • The Pentagon is reportedly about to cut ties with Anthropic, makers of Claude, which is already embedded in classified systems
  • The company insists on implementing guardrails over how the US military can use Claude - specifically when it comes to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons - after it was used in the Maduro raid without their knowledge.  
  • The Pentagon is now calling Claude a threat to national security
  • Some are accusing the overwhelmingly left-leaning company of trying to undermine the Trump administration, while Elon Musk says Claude 'hates whites, Asians, heterosexuals, and men.'

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly "close" to cutting business ties with Anthropic and designating the firm a supply chain risk - a penalty typically reserved for foreign adversaries, a senior Pentagon official told Axios.

Anthropic's flagship model, Claude, is already embedded in the military's classified systems - however the company's CEO has been pushing for abstract guardrails over ethical concerns for what the government sees as urgent national security needs. 

If classified as a national security risk, the designation would force any company that wants to do business with the U.S. military to certify it does not use Anthropic’s AI - effectively blacklisting the firm from large swaths of the defense ecosystem.

“It will be an enormous pain in the ass to disentangle,” the senior official told Axios. “And we are going to make sure they pay a price for forcing our hand.”

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed the review, framing it as a matter of national security.

“Our nation requires that our partners be willing to help our warfighters win in any fight,” Parnell said. “Ultimately, this is about our troops and the safety of the American people.”

Claude was notably used during the January operation targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, highlighting how deeply embedded the software already is within U.S. defense operations. As Axios noted on Saturday: 

 The tensions came to a head recently over the military's use of Claude in the operation to capture Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, through Anthropic's partnership with AI software firm Palantir.

  • According to the senior official, an executive at Anthropic reached out to an executive at Palantir to ask whether Claude had been used in the raid.
  • "It was raised in such a way to imply that they might disapprove of their software being used, because obviously there was kinetic fire during that raid, people were shot," the official said.

Since then, Pentagon officials and Anthropic executives have been locked in contentious negotiations over how the military may use the AI, particularly in surveillance, intelligence collection, and weapons development.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2026. Photo: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has pushed for guardrails to prevent mass surveillance of Americans or the use of AI in fully autonomous weapons systems without human involvement, however the Pentagon says those restrictions are unworkable. Anthropic's own Acceptable Use Policy (UAP) explicitly prohibits the use of Claude for: 

  • The design or use of weapons
  • Domestic surveillance
  • Facilitating violence or malicious cyber operations

These restrictions are not waived for military/government users unless the contract includes specific safeguards that Anthropic judges adequate, however defense officials insist that military AI tools must be available for "all lawful purposes," arguing that real-world operations are riddled with gray areas that rigid rules cannot anticipate. The same standard is being demanded of other major AI labs, including OpenAI, Google, and xAI.

One source familiar with the talks said senior defense officials had grown increasingly frustrated with Anthropic - and seized the opportunity to escalate the dispute publicly.

Musk piles on - 'evil' and 'misanthropic'

As the Pentagon showdown escalated, Anthropic also found itself under fire from another powerful adversary - Elon Musk.

Earlier this month, Musk launched a blistering public attack after the company announced a massive $30 billion funding round valuing it at roughly $380 billion. Musk labeled the company’s AI “evil” and “misanthropic,” accusing Claude of ideological bias and hostility toward certain demographic groups, accusing it of "hating Whites, Asians, heterosexuals, and men" in its outputs. 

Musk - whose own company xAI competes directly with Anthropic - mocked the firm’s name, suggesting that a company branded as Anthropic had paradoxically become anti-human.

That said, in January Anthropic cut off xAI's access to Claude models, which xAI engineers had been using via the Cursor coding tool to speed up internal work. Anthropic enforces a strict policy against using its models to build/train competitors (they had done the same to OpenAI earlier). Musk’s co-founder Tony Wu (who just left) sent an internal note acknowledging the productivity hit but saying it would motivate xAI to build better tools, while Musk later called the cutoff "not good for their karma."

Musk's beef isn't baseless; tests and user reports show Claude often declines queries that could be seen as offensive or non-inclusive (e.g., jokes about certain demographics, historical hypotheticals).

Musk has positioned xAI’s Grok as a less restricted, “truth-seeking” alternative to what he and allies describe as overly constrained or ideologically filtered models. Anthropic, by contrast, has built its reputation around "constitutional AI" - a framework designed to impose ethical limits on how its systems behave.

High stakes, limited alternatives

Designating Anthropic a supply chain risk would force defense contractors to rip Claude out of their internal workflows - a massive compliance headache given the company’s reach. Anthropic recently said eight of the ten largest U.S. companies already use its technology.

The Pentagon contract at risk is valued at up to $200 million - small compared to Anthropic’s reported $14 billion in annual revenue, but symbolically enormous.

Complicating matters, a senior administration official acknowledged that competing AI models are still “just behind” Claude when it comes to specialized government and classified applications, making an abrupt transition risky.

Still, Pentagon officials appear confident that other AI providers will ultimately agree to the “all lawful use” standard, even as sources close to the negotiations say much remains unsettled.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 11:15

LGBTQ+ Identity Dips In 2025 (But Doubled Over Last Decade)

LGBTQ+ Identity Dips In 2025 (But Doubled Over Last Decade)

Authored by Jeffrey Jones via Gallup,

Gallup estimates that 9% of U.S. adults personally identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or something other than heterosexual. This percentage is essentially unchanged from last year but remains more than double the 3.5% from 2012, the first year Gallup measured LGBTQ+ incidence. The current figure is also higher than readings of roughly 7% between 2021 and 2023.

The latest results are based on combined data from 2025 Gallup telephone interviews with over 13,000 U.S. adults.

In each poll it conducts, Gallup asks respondents whether they personally identify as heterosexual, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or something else. The vast majority, 86%, say they are heterosexual, while 9% identify with one of the various LGBTQ+ identities and 5% do not give a response.

The largest share of LGBTQ+ adults say they are bisexual, representing more than half of the subgroup and about 5% of the entire U.S. adult population. Meanwhile, 17% of LGBTQ+ adults identify as gay, 16% as lesbian and 12% as transgender, each representing between 1% and 2% of all U.S. adults. Another 6% of LGBTQ+ adults provide another identity, such as queer or pansexual, beyond those included in the survey.

Bisexual identity has consistently been the most common LGBTQ+ identity and has grown sharply since Gallup began measuring lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender identities as separate categories in 2020. That year, 3.1% of U.S. adults said they were bisexual, compared with the current 5.3%. Other LGBTQ+ identities have also increased over the past six years.

LGBTQ+ Identity Higher Among Younger Adults

As Gallup has previously demonstrated, the recent increase in LGBTQ+ identification in the U.S. is primarily driven by higher rates among those in the younger generations. In the latest data, 23% of adults under age 30 identify as LGBTQ+, compared with 10% of those aged 30 to 49 and 3% or less among those aged 50 and older.

LGBTQ+ identification is also higher among women than men, primarily because women are much more likely to say they are bisexual. The small proportion of U.S. adults who identify as nonbinary gender overwhelmingly identify as LGBTQ+, particularly as bisexual or transgender.

Democrats are much more inclined than Republicans to have an LGBTQ+ identity. This pattern likely results from LGBTQ+ individuals aligning with the Democratic Party, given the two parties’ stances toward same-sex marriage and other gay rights issues.

City residents are more likely than those living in suburban or rural areas to identify as LGBTQ+, while rates are similar among the major U.S. racial and ethnic groups.

All of these demographic subgroups report higher rates of LGBTQ+ identification than in 2012, the earliest Gallup data. Young adults today versus those in 2012 show the largest increases, and the rate has increased much more among women than men. The smallest increases are among Republicans (1.5% in 2012 vs. 1.9% today) and adults aged 65 and older (1.9% in 2012 vs. 2.3% today).

Implications

LGBTQ+ identification has risen sharply over the past decade, mainly because more young adults today, especially young women, are identifying as LGBTQ+. As more members of Generation Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) reach adulthood, the LGBTQ+ percentage should rise further, given that nearly one in four adults in that generation currently identify as something other than heterosexual. This is in contrast to older Americans, among whom LGBTQ+ identification remains relatively uncommon.

The increase to date also reflects larger shares of Americans, especially those in Gen Z and the millennial generation, considering themselves bisexual. Bisexual identification far outpaces gay and lesbian identification among younger adults, but it is on par with gay and lesbian identification among older generations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:50

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day

Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday.

The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.  

“The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added. 

That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners.

A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced.

With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US. 

“When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.”

Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy.

European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: 

  • NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high.
  • Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025.
  • AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance.
  • Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US.
  • Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business.
  • Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing.
  • Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider.
  • FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany.
  • Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela.
  • Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling.

Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed. 

In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%.

There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed

In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel. 

Top Headlines

  • President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future.
  • Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS
  • Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS
  • UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS
  • Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG
  • Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG
  • Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ
  • Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS
  • DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG
  • For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ
  • Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling. 
  • The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

  • USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks.
  • China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg.
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday.

Asian Headlines

  • Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday.
  • China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support.
  • China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties.
  • Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC.
  • RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation

FX

  • DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday.
  • EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action.
  • GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation.
  • USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan.
  • Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman.

Fixed Income

  • 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday.
  • Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc.
  • 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level.

Commodities

  • Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made.
  • Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail.
  • Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America.
  • Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday.
  • Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
  • US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS.
  • Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday.
  • Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US.
  • Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships.
  • Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region.
  • UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy.
  • French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing.

Geopolitics: Other

  • European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression.
  • Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people.

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap

I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started.

There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate.
For months, my published view has been that nobody truly knows who the long term winners and losers of this extraordinary technology will be. Yet as recently as October, markets were implicitly pricing in a world where almost every tech company would come out a winner. Over recent weeks we’ve seen a more realistic differentiation emerge within tech—but that repricing is now rippling into the broader economy with surprising speed.

Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day.

My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times.

As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm.

In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year.
Our economists expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.5% for Q4, a meaningful step down from the prior quarter’s 4.4% pace. A sizable portion of that deceleration—roughly 70bps—reflects the drag from the record long shutdown. Net trade is once again projected to make a strong positive contribution, driven mainly by subdued imports. December’s international trade report, due Thursday, will help refine the team's call, as will the advanced goods trade data, which will also guide expectations for inventories—currently seen subtracting about 60bps from growth in Q4.

For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year.

Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally.

Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.

Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here.

This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual.

Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday.
In Asia this morning, things are relatively quiet with mainland Chinese and Korean markets closed for the Lunar New Year. The Hang Seng is up +0.52% while the Nikkei (+0.11%) is edging up after a lower start to its session. That came despite a decent downside miss on Japan’s Q4 GDP data overnight, which rose at an annualised pace of +0.2% versus expectations of +1.6%. S&P (+0.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.06%) futures are also a little higher on this US holiday session.

Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration.

Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday).

Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022.

European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position.

Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday).

Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40

Downdetector Users Report Widespread Outages At X, AWS, Cloudflare

Downdetector Users Report Widespread Outages At X, AWS, Cloudflare

Around 8:00 a.m. ET, users on Downdetector reported outages and disruptions on X across the United States. At the same time, the outage tracker also showed a spike in reported issues involving Amazon Web Services and Cloudflare.

Downdetector users reported X outages and disruptions across major U.S. cities.

Simultaneously, Downdetector users reported outages affecting AWS and Cloudflare, raising the question of whether issues on Musk’s platform are a downstream effect.

*Developing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:30

Ukraine's Former Energy Minister Charged With Money Laundering As 'Operation Midas' Expands

Ukraine's Former Energy Minister Charged With Money Laundering As 'Operation Midas' Expands

Months after Ukraine was shaken by a sweeping corruption probe into state nuclear giant Energoatom, and subject of international embarrassment given it even touched Zelensky's office, former Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko has now been formally charged - after authorities detained him while he was allegedly attempting to leave the country.

Halushchenko had been suspended by Zelensky in mid-November, when news of the scandal first hit global headlines. On Monday, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) announced that Halushchenko faces formal charges of money laundering and participation in a criminal organization tied to what investigators call the Midas case or Operation Midas.

The former Minister of Energy, Herman Galushchenko, Creative Commons

"The former minister of energy (2021–2025) has been exposed for money laundering and participation in a criminal organization," the joint statement said, adding that investigators have "expanded the circle of suspects."

The investigation is focused on members of the alleged network which established an investment fund in Anguilla (the British Overseas Territory in the Eastern Caribbean) in February 2021. The vehicle was marketed as raising roughly €118 million in "investments" - with Halushchenko’s family listed among the contributors - after which millions flowed directly into accounts controlled by the family

For example, authorities claim part of the funds paid for the education of Halushchenko’s children at elite Swiss institutions, while other sums were deposited into his ex-wife's accounts, also with a big portion of the money allegedly invested further, "earning extra income for the family's personal use."

Halushchenko was energy minister from 2021 to 2025 before being appointed justice minister in July 2025. In November, NABU agents conducted raided offices and properties connected to him as the investigation intensified.

Western mainstream media had almost immediately launched into damage control in the wake of the massive energy scandal, with one op-ed in Bloomberg having tried its best to say it's not at all Ukraine's fault, but is actually somehow... the Kremlin behind it(!). Here's how it began:

There are at least two legitimate responses to allegations that a group of highly placed Ukrainian officials have skimmed $100 million from contracts to repair and protect their nation’s critical energy infrastructure, even as Russian attacks plunge the nation into darkness and cold. One is to despair, the other to celebrate. The second, strange as it may sound, is more logical.

This episode goes to the heart of why Ukrainians are fighting at all. The war began in 2014, after then President Viktor Yanukovych was toppled by mass protests against the epic scale of his corruption and the captivity to Moscow this created. Graft was the glue with which the Kremlin had held...

So even with high officials in Zelensky's government are caught red-handed by a Ukrainian internal investigation, the ultimate fault lies in Moscow, according to some MSM accounts.

It must be remembered that earlier last year, Zelensky himself found himself at the center of EU pushback and controversy when he attempted to eliminate NABU's independence, sparking outrage in Brussels some sectors of the Ukrainian populace.

Ukrainians, currently enduring a harsh winter in subzero temperatures and with rolling power outages due to the war, are outraged. But Americans might also need to wake up and take note of how billions in US funds are going into the coffers of a deeply corrupt Ukrainian system.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:25

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