Stephen Miller Asserts US Has Right To Take Greenland, & Wouldn't Even Have To Fight For It

Stephen Miller, one of President Trump's top aides who serves as his deputy chief of staff for policy, just poured more fuel on the fire in terms of the ongoing spat with Denmark over the future of Greenland and sovereignty.

He said in fresh remarks that there won't be any military intervention to take the Arctic territory as simply "nobody is going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland." More importantly he spelled out the US administration's view that Denmark fundamentally does not have a right to the resource-rich Arctic territory.

Miller was asked by reporters on whether Trump might 'invade' Greenland next, after this weekend's 'shock' Venezuela action. "What do you mean military action against Greenland? Greenland has a population of 30,000 people," he began his response.

Getty Images

"The real question is what right does Denmark have to assert control over Greenland? What is the basis of their territorial claim? What is their basis of having Greenland as a colony of Denmark?" Miller then questioned.

And he added: "The US is the power of Nato. For the US to secure the Arctic region to protect and defend Nato and Nato interests, obviously Greenland should be part of the US. And so that’s a conversation that we’re going to have as a country. That’s a process we’re going to have as a community of nations."

Despite the somewhat absurd diplomatic circus surrounding the Greenland question, which has of course remained highly entertaining, Miller has an indisputable point on his NATO comment. If Washington were to ever pull out of NATO, the military alliance would simply become one only on paper - akin to a mere 'EU Army'.

Denmark's foreign policy committee is meanwhile Tuesday evening having an emergency session to try and figure out how to handle the growing diplomatic showdown with the Trump administration. According to more background and context related to the latest:

The Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, responded on Monday by saying that an attack by the US on a Nato ally would mean the end of the military alliance and “post-second world war security”. It would, she warned, mark the end of “everything”.

Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, also made a strong statement in which he urged Trump to give up his “fantasies about annexation” and accused the US of “completely and utterly unacceptable” rhetoric. “Enough is enough,” he said.

Miller’s comments about Greenland came after his wife, the rightwing podcaster Katie Miller, posted a map on X of Greenland draped in a US flag with the caption “SOON” hours after the military operation in Venezuela.

Stephen Miller was later asked about this, to which he explained: "It has been the formal position of the US government since the beginning of this administration, frankly going back into the previous Trump administration, that Greenland should be part of the US. The president has been very clear about that."

Trump's Greenland rhetoric currently does appear more than just about bombastic social media claims, memes or mocking Europe - as there's currently said to be real, high level admin discussions:

According to two people familiar with private high-level discussions and granted anonymity to share their details, the White House has shown little interest in an overture last year from Denmark’s prime minister offering the U.S. the option to increase its military presence in Greenland, where it already operates a base and has long deployed troops at liberty.

“The option of more U.S. military presence has been on the table,” said one of the people, a European defense official. “The White House is not interested.”

The second person, an American in frequent contact with the administration and European officials, said that most of what Trump says he wants out of Greenland — access to investment resources like critical minerals, more troops and military bases, better intelligence sharing — could be easily accomplished by negotiating directly with Denmark, a steadfast ally.

Greenland - As viewed from a proper map

Why Greenland? Well because Moscow bases almost all of their strategic military assets on the Kola Peninsula next to Finland. This is where the Russian ICBM silos, submarine bases, and their strategic bombers are.

If you look at the… pic.twitter.com/z6qECCJ3u5

— Object Zero (@Object_Zero_) January 6, 2026

Europe is (as expected) immediately coming to Denmark's defense:

Six European allies have rallied to support Denmark following renewed insistence by the US that it must have control over Greenland.

"Greenland belongs to its people, and only Denmark and Greenland can decide on matters concerning their relations," the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Denmark said in a joint statement.

On Sunday, Donald Trump said the US "needed" Greenland - a semi-autonomous region of fellow Nato member Denmark - for security reasons.

Meanwhile fresh commentary by Rabobank has some creative ideas that the administration might want to take up, such as providing every Greenlander $1 million in exchange for their country, which they would likely find very attractive.

That fresh Rabobank commentary and thought experiment is re-presented in the below:

* * *

Historically, the Monroe Doctrine applied to Central and South America, but its geographic boundaries were never explicitly defined. The Trump Administration, however, may be getting creative with borders, suggesting the Doctrine could soon extend to Greenland (which is still technically in the Western Hemisphere).
Greenland first surfaced as a talking point during Trump’s campaign. This has re-emerged over the weekend with Trump announcing that the U.S. “need[s] Greenland from a national security situation,” and that “we will deal with Greenland in about two months. Let’s talk about Greenland in 20 days.” What exactly we’ll be talking about when it comes to Greenland is not yet clear, but Denmark—and the EU—is taking this as a threat.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that “if the U.S. chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War.”

Greenland’s Prime Minister had some strong words for the Trump Administration, but seemed open to negotiations. “No more pressure,” he said, “No more fantasies of annexation. We are open to dialogue. We are open to discussions. But this must happen through the proper channels and with respect for international law.”

While an outright U.S. military takeover seems unlikely, diplomatic maneuvering is another matter. Trump’s approach to Statecraft has often been described as “too much stick, not enough carrot.” In the case of Greenland, we may see a bit more carrot. Still, with a population of only around 50,000, one might imagine a thought experiment where, for the low, low price of $50 billion, the U.S. offers every Greenlander $1 million in exchange for their country. That might prove more attractive.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 12:45

Washington Post Won't Say Why Trust In Vaccines Is Gone

Authored by Roger Bate via the Brownstone Institute,

The Washington Post recently published a detailed investigation showing that childhood vaccination rates across the United States are falling sharply, particularly for measles. Fewer counties now meet the 95 percent coverage level commonly associated with herd immunity, and millions of children attend schools in communities below that threshold. 

On the basics, it’s true that routine childhood measles shots are among the most effective measures for keeping that particular infection at bay. But the Post’s analysis fails where it matters most: it cannot explain why trust has collapsed so broadly, so persistently, and so rationally for many ordinary people.

Instead, readers are offered a familiar diagnosis. Distrust of authorities. Political polarization. Misinformation. Backlash against mandates. All of this is curiously detached from responsibility. The article describes the consequences of distrust without confronting its causes.

That omission is not accidental. It reflects a broader unwillingness among elite media and public health institutions to reckon honestly with Covid-era failures. And without that reckoning, efforts to restore vaccine confidence are unlikely to succeed.

This is not an argument against vaccines. It is an argument about credibility.

During the Covid-19 period, public health authorities repeatedly overstated certainty, minimized uncertainty, and treated legitimate scientific disagreement as a threat rather than a feature of good science. 

Claims about vaccines preventing infection and transmission were presented as settled fact, not evolving hypotheses. When those claims weakened or collapsed under new evidence, they were revised quietly, without acknowledgment of error.

The same pattern appeared across other policies: masking, school closures, natural immunity, and population-level risk. Positions shifted, sometimes dramatically, but rarely with public explanation. The message conveyed—intentionally or not—was that narrative management mattered more than transparency.

This mattered because trust is cumulative. People do not evaluate each public health recommendation in isolation. They judge institutions based on patterns of behavior over time. When authorities insist they were always right, even when claims visibly change, credibility erodes.

Worse, dissent was often suppressed rather than debated. Scientists and clinicians who questioned prevailing policies—on lockdowns, school closures, or mandates—were frequently labeled as misinformation spreaders rather than engaged on the merits. Government coordination with social media platforms blurred the line between combating falsehoods and policing debate. Once that line is crossed, institutional trust does not merely decline—it inverts.

None of this requires assuming bad faith. Emergencies are hard. Decisions were made under pressure. But good faith does not excuse overstatement, nor does difficulty justify refusing retrospective evaluation.

The result of this approach is now visible in the data the Washington Post reports—but does not explain.

Evidence from Pennsylvania illustrates the point. Montgomery County, a large, affluent, highly educated Philadelphia suburb, has historically had strong vaccination uptake and robust healthcare access. It is not a place easily dismissed as anti-science or anti-medicine.

Yet my physician survey research conducted in the county during and after the pandemic tells a different story. Clinicians reported that while initial Covid vaccine uptake was high in 2021, acceptance declined sharply over time, particularly for boosters. More importantly, many physicians observed a spillover effect: growing hesitancy not only toward Covid vaccines, but toward other vaccines as well.

Patients were not primarily citing technical fears about vaccine safety. They were expressing distrust of public health authorities. They referenced shifting claims, perceived exaggeration, and the absence of acknowledgment of error. Named figures—most notably Dr. Anthony Fauci—were mentioned not as sources of reassurance, but as symbols of lost credibility.

Ongoing follow-up work in Montgomery County suggests this dynamic is not fading. Hesitancy appears to be hardening, increasingly framed not as uncertainty about specific vaccines, but as refusal to rely on institutions that have never conducted a transparent review of their pandemic performance. The absence of any meaningful Covid audit is frequently cited as a reason for continued distrust.

The Washington Post notes “distrust of authorities” but treats it as a sociological condition rather than a consequence of institutional behavior. That framing is convenient, but it is incomplete. Distrust did not emerge from nowhere. It was earned.

This matters for policy because different causes demand different solutions. If vaccine hesitancy were primarily driven by ignorance about vaccine science, then more education and clearer messaging might suffice. But when hesitancy is rooted in governance failure—overconfidence, suppression of debate, refusal to acknowledge mistakes—messaging alone will not work. In fact, it may backfire.

What is missing is accountability—not punishment, not jail, not tribunals—but acknowledgment.

In every other domain of public life, major failures are followed by audits. Financial crises, industrial accidents, intelligence breakdowns, transportation disasters—all prompt formal reviews aimed at understanding what went wrong and how to do better. These processes are not about retribution. They are about restoring confidence that institutions can learn.

Covid has been the exception.

There has been no comprehensive, independent, and transparent review of pandemic decision-making in the United States. Agencies have issued self-assessments, but these emphasize difficulty rather than error. Senior officials rarely concede specific mistakes. Media coverage largely treats criticism as politically motivated rather than analytically serious.

The result is a lingering credibility deficit. Each new public health recommendation—whether about boosters, childhood vaccines, or unrelated interventions—is filtered through the unresolved memory of Covid. People are not asking whether measles vaccines worked in 1965. They are asking whether they can trust institutions that refuse to reflect honestly on 2020–2022.

The Washington Post is right to warn about falling vaccination rates. But by refusing to confront the institutional roots of distrust, it is not part of the solution. It documents the smoke while declining to examine the fire.

Measles immunity matters. But so should elite misinformation, overstatement, and institutional defensiveness.

Until public health authorities—and the media that defend them—are willing to acknowledge Covid-era failures openly, trust will not be restored. And without trust, even the best vaccines will struggle to achieve the coverage they deserve.

The problem is not that science failed. It is that institutions have not yet admitted where they did.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 12:25

Cuba's Security-State Colonization In Americas, Proven By Delta Force Killing 32 Intel Agents Surrounding Maduro

Submitted by The Bureau's Michael Lima,

For years, the Cuban regime has insisted that its presence in Venezuela was benign—limited to doctors, nurses, and sports trainers offering humanitarian solidarity. The deaths of 32 Cuban military and intelligence personnel while defending Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro have now shattered that fiction.

As early as March 2019, Cuba’s ambassador to Canada, Josefina Vidal, appeared on CBC News to denounce Canadian reporting on Cuba’s security intervention in Venezuela. She dismissed the claims outright: “The assertion that thousands of Cubans would allegedly be inserted into the structures of the armed and security forces of Venezuela, supporting the government of (legitimate) President Nicolás Maduro, is a scandalous slander,” she said, demanding proof.

Today, that proof is unmistakable. These men did not die treating patients or coaching athletes. They were killed as part of Maduro’s inner security ring, exposing Cuba’s central role in exporting its intelligence and repression model to keep authoritarian allies in power.

The Cuban Embassy in the United States honored, in an emotional gathering, the memory of the 32 Cubans who recently died in Venezuela and condemned the blatant violation of all norms of international law by the US government, which is exerting its imperial power over our America. pic.twitter.com/msX6PyMiP6

— Cuban Embassy in US (@EmbaCubaUS) January 6, 2026

This reality did not emerge overnight. Cuban-Venezuelan security cooperation dates back at least to 2008, when both regimes signed agreements granting Havana extraordinary influence over Venezuela’s armed forces and intelligence services. Under these accords, Cuba trained Venezuelan soldiers, restructured key military units, trained intelligence agents in Havana, and—most consequentially—reoriented Venezuela’s intelligence apparatus away from external threats and toward surveilling its own officers and commanders. This transformation proved vital to regime survival, allowing it to neutralize internal dissent and consolidate power for more than two decades.

That architecture of control became fully visible on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve, a U.S. military operation carried out by Delta Force and the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment that resulted in the capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and their transfer to the United States. On January 5, Maduro appeared in federal court in New York to face a four-count indictment accusing him of leading a 25-year narco-terrorism conspiracy.

During the operation, 32 Cuban operatives from the Revolutionary Armed Forces and the Ministry of the Interior were killed while defending Maduro. Their deaths were not denied by Havana. On the contrary, the Cuban government confirmed both the casualties and their military ranks in Presidential Decree No. 1147, signed by Miguel Díaz-Canel, which also declared two days of national mourning. The decree amounted to an extraordinary admission: Cuban state forces were embedded at the highest levels of Venezuela’s security apparatus.

Those who talk about respecting sovereignty and international law in #Venezuela should explain why 32 of the 40 casualties of the US operation were Cuban thugs protecting #Maduro.#Cuba is the one that steals Venezuelan oil and violates international law and human rights. pic.twitter.com/UgzTYIlOhj

— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 6, 2026

Although the Cuban regime did not officially disclose their names, the independent Cuban outlet 14ymedio identified six of the deceased, along with their ranks and provinces of origin, using social media posts, private messages, and partial confirmations from local authorities. Most were from eastern Cuba, particularly Granma and Santiago de Cuba. Among them were Fernando Báez Hidalgo, 26, linked to the Interior Ministry’s Personal Security Directorate; Landy Osoria López, a State Security operative deployed in Caracas; and Yordenis Marlonis, reportedly part of the Venezuelan president’s direct protection detail.

Others appeared to belong to the Avispas Negras (Black Wasps), an Interior Ministry unit sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for violently suppressing the July 11, 2021 pro-democracy protests. At least one of those killed was identified as a cryptographer.

The extent of this penetration was underscored days later by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stated that Maduro’s entire security structure was effectively controlled by Cubans—those who guarded him, those who monitored loyalty within the regime, and those who kept him insulated from his own people. The implication was unmistakable: Venezuela had not merely allied with Cuba; it had been colonized by Cuban intelligence.

This model of exported repression is not unique to Venezuela. A similar pattern has taken root in Nicaragua. Since the mass protests of April 2018, credible accounts from retired Nicaraguan military officers—including Major Roberto Samcam—indicate that dictator Daniel Ortega has increasingly surrounded himself with Cuban advisers embedded in his security apparatus, displacing Nicaraguan personnel who once formed his inner circle.

Independent reporting suggests that roughly 60 Cuban advisers operate within Nicaragua’s military and security structures, overseeing surveillance, loyalty screening, and repression. During Operation Clean-Up in April 2018, Cuban special forces reportedly operated alongside paramilitary units during mass arrests and the violent dismantling of civilian resistance—an archetypal case of the “Cubanization” of repression.

The military operation that led to Maduro’s capture signals a decisive shift in U.S. credibility and deterrence. For years, autocrats faced little cost as U.S. responses were limited to statements and sanctions that failed to change behavior. It would now be a strategic mistake for the United States—after executing such a sophisticated operation—not to pair it with a coherent political strategy to promote a democratic transition in Venezuela.

A democratic Venezuela—one that respects electoral results and the popular will, especially that of the more than 70% of Venezuelans who voted for Edmundo González in the July 28, 2024 elections—would halt the export of authoritarianism, dismantle state-sponsored narcotrafficking networks, help reverse the refugee exodus, and reemerge as a reliable energy partner.

Sustained oil production growth is unrealistic under a corrupt criminal regime; by contrast, JP Morgan estimates that a political transition could raise output to 1.3–1.4 million barrels per day within two years, and potentially to 2.5 million over the next decade.

History shows that democratic transitions fail when senior power brokers and regime institutions escape accountability. Figures such as Diosdado Cabello, Delcy Rodríguez, Jorge Rodríguez, and Vladimir Padrino López must face justice—or mafia-like structures will persist.

The eventual fall of the regime would have far-reaching regional consequences: deepening Cuba’s isolation, fracturing the authoritarian axis with Russia, curbing the influence of China and Iran, weakening ELN and FARC groups in Colombia linked to drug trafficking, and helping stem the largest mass exodus in Latin American history.

Despite the deaths of the 32 Cuban operatives, as long as the Venezuelan regime remains in power, many other Cuban intelligence advisers will continue to be embedded across multiple spheres of influence. These deaths reveal how authoritarian regimes sustain one another through intelligence sharing and the export of repression—regardless of the human cost.

Repressive regimes do not stand alone—they sustain one another. The Cubans who died defending Nicolás Maduro did so not in defense of Venezuela, but in defense of a repressive system responsible for crimes against humanity, torture, political imprisonment, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings—a system built on surveillance, fear, and impunity. Their deaths mark not only the collapse of a security ring, but the unmasking of an entire axis of repression in the Americas.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 11:45

UBS: "Copper Is The Commodity Everyone Wants To Own"

Goldman's "circular melt-up" call and its recent upgrade to the 2026 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price forecast have so far proven correct, as the industrial metal surged above $13,000 a ton with traders continuing to price in tighter global supply and a broader risk-on mood across metals.

Three-month LME copper futures rose as much as 3.1% to a record $13,387.50, surpassing the previous record high set just a day earlier. The move is driven by the risk that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on refined copper, prompting a multi-month surge in US inventory and draining supplies from major global markets.

"Copper extended its rally on Tuesday, with prices surging to a record $13,187 per ton, fuelled by a rush to ship the metal to the US amid tariff uncertainty and persistent supply disruptions," UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati wrote in a brief note to clients earlier.

Samajpati continued, "The US premium has driven global inventory imbalances, with US stockpiles rising while the rest of the world faces tightening supplies. Speculative trading intensified as investors bet on further gains, supported by the metal's critical role in energy transition and ongoing mine setbacks in Chile, Indonesia, and Congo."

She added, "The rally is also part of a broader upswing in metals, with gold, silver, and platinum hitting new highs."

In a separate note, UBS analyst Dan Major noted, "Net speculative positioning is elevated, and it is well known that copper is the commodity everyone wants to own."

The prospect of US import curbs, combined with strong demand due to copper's role in high-growth sectors such as data center buildouts and power grid upgrades, fueled a wave of optimistic calls late in 2025.

"Inventories used to act as a buffer, but now they're locked in the US," Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures Co., recently told Bloomberg. "So the buffer is gone and everyone will have to scramble."

Latest reporting:

• Goldman: $10,000 Is New Price Floor For Copper

• Copper Hits Record High; Goldman Warns A "Circular Melt-Up" Is Now Driving Global Market

• Goldman Upgrades Copper Price Forecast Weeks After Warning About "Circular Melt-Up"

"The logic behind this rally remains," said Li. "We need to track the trend and not get fixated on absolute price levels."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 11:25

The End Of NATO?

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The Monroe Doctrine, proclaimed by U.S. President James Monroe in 1823, asserted American influence in the Western Hemisphere at a time when newly independent South American nations were emerging from European colonial rule. While the Doctrine, as a tool of policy, warns Europe to keep its hands off, it stopped short of declaring that the United States would act as nanny for these fledgling states.

Don’s interpretation of the Doctrine, however, seems a bit different — though not entirely unique. Indeed, digging a massive trench to split a country in two is a rather explicit form of U.S. intervention, though the recent operation in Venezuela marks the first time we’ve seen something like this from Washington since the Bush Administration (‘H’, not ‘W’). and the current Administration’s rhetoric surrounding the operation certainly sets it apart.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified: “There’s not a war. [There is a] war against drug trafficking organizations—not a war against Venezuela.” Some might argue that a war is still a war regardless of how the opposition is defined, but Rubio would disagree. He has also made the core intentions of the U.S. clear: “This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live—and we’re not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States.”

As for Maduro, the situation appears straightforward. He is expected to be convicted by the Southern District of New York on at least one of the charges levied against him and will likely spend the rest of his life in prison. Maduro, however, has asserted that he is “not guilty of narco-terrorism charges,” proclaiming “I am innocent. I am not guilty. I am a decent man.”

On Monday, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as acting president, following Trump’s weekend comments to The Atlantic: “If [Rodriguez] doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price—probably bigger than Maduro.”

Rodriguez’s tone has shifted dramatically since the weekend. Initially condemning Maduro’s arrest as “barbaric,” she now extends an olive branch to Washington, stating: “We invite the U.S. government to work together on a cooperative agenda focused on shared development, within the framework of international law, and to strengthen lasting community coexistence.”

But Venezuela’s future is still uncertain. There has been a whirlwind of headlines questioning how much control the U.S. will take over Venezuela’s energy infrastructure or if they will ultimately end up taking control at all. Trump has thus made his position clear that he wants to be “very strongly involved” in the Venezuelan oil industry.

As noted by Senior Energy Strategist, Joe DeLaura, “a vast amount of capital investment would be needed to get Venezuela back up to its previous production levels…the minimum timeframe for getting output back to where it once was would be five to ten years and billions of dollars.”

Venezuela’s government is in flux as well. Will Maduro’s government, headed by Rodriguez, stay in place, or is she on borrowed time? Rodriguez’ recent mollification may have bought her a few more months (or perhaps that cushy apartment in Qatar that Maduro turned down), but the question remains: will we see true regime change in Venezuela after all? 

Historically, the Monroe Doctrine applied to Central and South America, but its geographic boundaries were never explicitly defined. The Trump Administration, however, may be getting creative with borders, suggesting the Doctrine could soon extend to Greenland (which is still technically in the Western Hemisphere).

Greenland first surfaced as a talking point during Trump’s campaign. This has re-emerged over the weekend with Trump announcing that the U.S. “need[s] Greenland from a national security situation,” and that “we will deal with Greenland in about two months. Let’s talk about Greenland in 20 days.” What exactly we’ll be talking about when it comes to Greenland is not yet clear, but Denmark—and the EU—is taking this as a threat.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that “if the U.S. chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War.”

Greenland’s Prime Minister had some strong words for the Trump Administration, but seemed open to negotiations. “No more pressure,” he said, “No more fantasies of annexation. We are open to dialogue. We are open to discussions. But this must happen through the proper channels and with respect for international law.”

While an outright U.S. military takeover seems unlikely, diplomatic maneuvering is another matter. Trump’s approach to Statecraft has often been described as “too much stick, not enough carrot.” In the case of Greenland, we may see a bit more carrot. Still, with a population of only around 50,000, one might imagine a thought experiment where, for the low, low price of $50 billion, the U.S. offers every Greenlander $1 million in exchange for their country. That might prove more attractive.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 11:05

Did DOJ Prosecutors Violate Trump's Executive Order By Selling Forfeited Samourai Wallet Bitcoin?

Authored by Frank Corva via BitcoinMagazine.com,

It seems that the U.S. Marshall Service (USMS) has sold the $6.3 million worth of bitcoin that Samourai Wallet developers Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill paid the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) as a fee that was part of their guilty plea.

In doing so, it has potentially violated Executive Order (EO) 14233, which mandates that bitcoin acquired via criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings should be held as part of the United States’ Strategy Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

If the Southern District of New York (SDNY), the federal judicial district in which the Samourai case was to be tried, did, in fact, violate EO 14233, it would not be the first time employees of the SDNY have acted in defiance of direction from the federal government.

What Happened to the Bitcoin?

According to a document titled “Asset Liquidation Agreement”, which has been obtained exclusively by Bitcoin Magazine and has not until now been made public, the bitcoin that Rodriguez and Hill forfeited is to be sold — or already has been.

As per the document, the defendants agreed to transfer $6,367,139.69 worth of bitcoin — 57.55353033 bitcoin at the time the final party signed the agreement, which was Assistant United States Attorney Cecilia Vogelon November 3, 2025 — to the USMS.

The bitcoin, which was sent from address bc1q4pntkz06z7xxvdcers09cyjqz5gf8ut4pua22r on November 3, 2025, seems to have bypassed any direct custody by the USMS. Instead, it seems to have been sent directly to Coinbase Prime address 3Lz5ULL7nG7vv6nwc8kNnbjDmSnawKS3n8 (Arkham Intel attributes this address to the brokerage), presumably to be sold.

This Coinbase Prime address currently has a zero balance, indicating that the bitcoin may have already been sold.

Violating Executive Order 14233

If the USMS has sold the forfeited bitcoin, it likely contravened EO 14233, which orders that bitcoin acquired by the U.S. government via criminal forfeiture, termed “Government BTC” in the EO, “shall not be sold” and should be contributed into the U.S. SBR.

If the USMS sold the bitcoin, they did so at their own discretion and not as a legal mandate, which indicates that certain members of the DOJ may still view bitcoin as a taboo asset to be offloaded as opposed to a strategic asset that President Trump has directed government agencies to retain.

Given that the Samourai prosecution originated under the previous administration, which was notoriously hostile toward noncustodial crypto tools and their developers, the decision to ignore EO 14233 and sell the bitcoin despite a mandate from the executive branch fits a pattern of treating bitcoin as something that should be removed from government balance sheets as soon as possible.

Legal Details Regarding the Forfeiture and Liquidation

According to a legal source close to this matter, the Samourai developers’ forfeited their bitcoin under 18 U.S. Code § 982(a)(1), which stipulates that any offense that violates 18 U.S. Code § 1960, the statute that prohibits the operation of unlicensed money transmitting businesses, orders that person to forfeit to the United States any property involved in the offense.

Judging by § 982 and its incorporation of 21 U.S.C. § 853(c), a criminal forfeiture statute that stipulates that “property that is subsequently transferred to a person other than the defendant may be the subject of a special verdict of forfeiture and thereafter shall be ordered forfeited to the United States,” the bitcoin that Rodriguez and Hill forfeited fits the EO’s definition of “Government BTC”.

Neither § 982 nor the incorporated § 853 requires that property that is forfeited as part of a criminal offense be liquidated. Furthermore, the fund forfeiture statutes cited in section three of the EO — 31 U.S.C. § 9705 and 28 U.S.C. § 524(c) — regulate where forfeiture proceeds are deposited and how they may be used; they do not require that forfeited bitcoin be converted to cash rather than held in kind.

The EO also stipulates that “Government BTC” falls under the umbrella of “Government Digital Assets” and states that “the head of each agency shall not sell or otherwise dispose of any Government Digital Assets” except in certain scenarios, none of which apply in the Rodriguez or Hill cases and, in all of which, the U.S. attorney general would play a role in determining what should be done with the forfeited digital assets.

The Sovereign District of New York

When taking EO 14233 and the statutes cited in this article into account, the SDNY seems to have acted in a manner that defies the EO 14233’s mandate to transfer bitcoin obtained via criminal forfeiture to the U.S. SBR.

This would not mark the first time that the SDNY has acted in such a manner. 

The judicial jurisdiction, sometimes colloquially referred to as “Sovereign District of New York,” has earned a reputation for operating independently and unilaterally, despite being part of a federal system.

The fact that the SDNY proceeded with the cases against Rodriguez and Hill as well as the case against Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm, is further evidence of this.

On April 7, 2025, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche issued a memo entitled “Ending Regulation By Prosecution” in which he stated “the Department [of Justice] will no longer target virtual currency exchanges, mixing and tumbling services, and offline wallets for the acts of their end users…”

The SDNY seemed to disregard the language in this memo, though, as it proceeded with the Samourai Wallet or Tornado Cash cases.

And when the defense team for Hill and Rodrguez learned as per a Brady request that two high-ranking members of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) “strongly suggested” that Samourai Wallet wasn’t serving as a money transmitter due to the noncustodial nature of the service, the prosecution proceeded anyway.

When it comes to criminal cases tried within the federal court system, over 90% of defendants are convicted and sentenced, with as little as 0.4% being acquitted some years. And the prosecution for SDNY cases has a reputation for having an even higher win rate.

Rodriguez was aware of these statistics, as well as the fact that Judge Denise Cote, the judge who presided over his and Hill’s cases, has a reputation for harsh sentencing.

He told me as much the morning before he pleaded guilty to the conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitter business charge.

Is the War on Crypto Really Over?

Many Bitcoin and crypto proponents who voted for President Trump in 2024 as well as the crypto industry, which supported the president in his reelection, are now beginning to question whether or not President Trump really does want to see an end to the war on crypto.

For this to happen, the DOJ under President Trump must honor what is mandated in EO 14233 and follow Deputy Attorney General Blanche’s guidance to stop prosecuting developers of noncustodial crypto technology.

To the latter point, President Trump recently stated that he is considering a pardon for Rodriguez.

His pardoning Rodriguez as well having the DOJ look into why it sold the bitcoin that the Samourai developers forfeited would send a signal that the president is quite serious about his pro-Bitcoin and pro-crypto stance.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 10:25

China Slaps Export Controls On Japan For Dual-Use Items, Rare Earths, Could Impact Semiconductors 

More steady escalation between US-ally Japan and China has emerged, but things just got much more significant - moving from initial Chinese restrictions on things like seafood or cultural exchange events, to now Beijing announcing an immediate ban on all goods deemed dual use for Tokyo. Some rare earth elements are included in this, which impacts a range of technologies, goods, and services with both civilian and military applications.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi - still relatively early and fresh in her tenure - likely regrets her words from last November before her parliament, where she for the first time ever in Japan's history suggested the Japanese military could intervene to defend Taiwan from a future Chinese invasion of the self-ruled island. However, the Chinese demand for a full public retraction and apology hasn't come, which means Beijing is now engaged in more screw-tightening to demonstrate how serious it is.

In unveiling the new punitive measures Tuesday, a spokesperson for China's Commerce Ministry once again hammered on Takaichi’s "erroneous" comments and that China's national security and interests must be "safeguarded".

"These comments constitute a crude interference in China’s internal affairs, seriously violate the one-China principle and are extremely harmful in nature and impact," the statement said, followed by a warning that any entity or individual which violates the export ban will be held legally accountable. 

These new controls may affect shipments of semiconductors and rare earth materials to Japan's Self-Defense Forces and defense industry firms - which is without the intent, and signals that greater punishment and damage could be further implemented at any time.

However, the fresh announcement did not identify specific importers subject to the ban, with details not disclosed, and it remaining unknown just how these controls will be implemented or handled.

Beijing in addition to citing national security, described the move as vital to non-proliferation, especially in light of Tokyo's anti-China stance in the region.

China had already been steadily retaliating through measures related to curbing trade, cultural exchanges, and tourism - coupled with threats of more punitive action to come. There have lately been some serious military 'close calls' as well.

As DA Sails notes, "It’s a reminder that export controls are now a frontline geopolitical tool, not just a trade policy."

China's overnight announced 'dual use' export controls on Japan...

For example, early December saw an incident play out of Japan where Chinese PLA military aircraft locked radar on Japanese fighter jets, helping relations continue to spiral to their lowest point in many years.

All the while, Beijing has kept up its fiery denunciations, making clear there's "no space" for ambiguity on what China sees as its territory (Taiwan). Previously the foreign ministry has explained, "China has made its serious position clear several times on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s wrongful remarks on Taiwan." And: "The remarks seriously violate the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, and cause fundamental damage to the political foundation of China-Japan relations."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 10:10

Florida Made Nearly 20,000 Immigration Arrests In 2025

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Nearly 20,000 immigration arrests were made in Florida in 2025, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced during a Jan. 5 press conference highlighting his state’s immigration enforcement standards.

Of that total number, 10,000 arrests were made as part of the Department of Homeland Security’s Operation Tidal Wave, and 7,674 were taken into custody by Florida’s highway patrol officers.

Those arrested included more than 6,300 people with criminal records, including violent and sexual offenses, as well as several hundred of the total 1,200 child predators arrested in the state that year.

It did not include any arrests made by federal agents or self-deportations, which authorities said reached about 1,000 people going through the state’s program alone.

DeSantis held the press conference at Deportation Depot outside Jacksonville, from which authorities said 93 deportation flights carried away 2,926 people in the few months the site was in operation last year.

Deportation Depot followed the establishment of the Alligator Alcatraz detention and deportation center deep in the Everglades.

DeSantis said that both facilities now had a federal immigration judge on site to expedite the deportation process.

He also announced that his administration was awaiting DHS approval to open a third detention and deportation center in North Florida that would be called the “Panhandle Pokey.”

The governor also suggested that a fourth site could open this year in South Florida, but he did not go into details.

DeSantis emphasized that the creation of every facility was meant as a temporary solution to support federal agents who have run out of space to keep illegal immigrants off the streets.

Although it is not clear how temporary they are, DeSantis expressed his hope that the federal government could expand its bed space and eliminate the need for any state intervention.

Dave Kerner (C), executive director of the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, describes the state's collaborative efforts with the federal government in immigration enforcement while speaking at a press conference at Deportation Depot in Sanderson, Fla., on Jan. 5, 2026. Natasha Holt for The Epoch Times

Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Mark Glass said his department and its partners in the Florida Department of Children and Families were continuing to work with the Trump administration to find the estimated hundreds of thousands of children who were brought into the country unaccompanied.

Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner Wilton Simpson announced the Department of Transportation was going to build another major highway checkpoint and close up what he called “a major hole” along the state’s northern border.

“We’re breaking up the fuel thefts,” he said. “We’re breaking up the stolen vehicles, the human trafficking, the illegals that we are catching, not only illegals, but the just bad folks ... making a big difference.”

Authorities pointed to Florida’s immigration legislation signed in February 2025, which required all state, county, and local agencies inside and outside of law enforcement to enter into 287(g) agreements and support the Department of Homeland Security’s nationwide crackdown on illegal immigration.

“Every state agency in Florida has made a 287 (g) Task Force arrest,” said Anthony Coker, State Board of Immigration Enforcement executive director.

“I think that it’s unprecedented, number one, but it also speaks to the leadership of our Cabinet and our governor really leading the way on immigration, and the state directors that are buying into it [have] been amazing.”

Coker said that state agency directors and county sheriffs have worked to build personal relationships with federal partners, and they continue to act on their own through self-initiated operations.

“The Florida blueprint of immigration enforcement has been widely recognized as being the gold standard of state-level immigration enforcement,” Coker said. “As we begin 2026, we’re excited for the opportunity to partner with other states and have them see as much success as we have.”

Many of these arrests came from engagements such as traffic stops by the Florida Highway Patrol.

“Is it easy? No,” said Dave Kerner, executive director of the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles.

“It’s not easy. Is it combative? It’s very combative. I can count at least 10 troopers who have been injured as a result of immigration enforcement operations, and seriously injured.

“But the point is, it can be done.”

The governor said that the enthusiasm for working with the federal government is not felt everywhere across the state, and he said that he is prepared to take action against anyone found “breaching duties.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 10:00

Resilience Of US Economy Showing "Signs Of Cracking" As US Services PMI Disappoints

Following yesterday's US Manufacturing ISM survey disappointment, this morning we get yet more soft survey data - this time a look at the Services sector via S&P Global.

The final (December) US Services PMI data was a disappointment, printing 52.5 vs 52.9 expected...

Source: Bloomberg

While the print was a disappointment, it remains above 50 - expansion - but new business inflows rising to the weakest degree in over a year-and-a-half, growth of activity faltered and was the lowest since last April.

Confidence in the outlook also weakened, whilst employment volumes stagnated, failing to rise for the first time since last February.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI recorded 52.7 in December, down from 54.2 in the previous month.

Business activity continued to expand in December, rounding off another quarter of robust growth, but as Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, points out, "the resilience of the US economy is showing signs of cracking."

"New business placed at services providers showed the smallest rise in some 20 months which, accompanied by the first fall in orders placed at manufacturers for a year, points to a broad-based weakening of demand growth.

"Not only has service sector business activity slowed in response to concerns over order books, with the December surveys signaling the weakest economic expansion since last April, but the number of companies cutting headcounts has exceeded those reporting higher employment for the first time since February.

Optimism is fading...

"We also enter 2026 with future output expectations running much lower than seen at the start of 2025, fueling concerns that December’s slowdown and job market malaise could spill over into the new year.

"Confidence has been dampened principally by uncertainty over government policy and the broader economic outlook, with tariffs and affordability featuring as common threads throughout companies’ more cautious views on their prospects.

Affordability worries are underscored by companies reporting an "increased impact of tariffs on both input costs and selling prices in December," suggesting we could see the unwelcome combination of slower economic growth and stubbornly high inflation at the start of the new year.

However, Williamson notes that "there is an expectation among many companies that lower interest rates and government policy will start to boost demand again as the new year proceeds."

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 09:55

Fairfax Financial Takes 22% Stake In Under Armour As UBS Sees "Turnaround Stock"

Struggling apparel brand Under Armour, founded and currently led by Kevin Plank, has seen its market capitalization collapse after years of missteps, brand erosion, and tough global competition. However, a newly disclosed filing shows that a Canadian financial holding company has taken a sizable stake, alongside a recent, more constructive turnaround call from UBS. This suggests the struggle phase may finally be nearing an inflection point.

Fairfax Financial Holdings disclosed a 22.2% ownership stake in UA Class A common stock in a new Schedule 13D filing, stating that the position was acquired for investment purposes and could be adjusted over time.

Fairfax has become the top shareholder. 

The revelation sent UA shares up 5.5% in pre-market trading in New York. Shares have imploded over the years, falling back to roughly 2010 levels, largely because the brand failed to remain relevant.

In September, UBS analyst Jay Sole wrote to clients, "We think sentiment will turn positive in FY27, driving stock outperformance."

Just days ago, Sole told clients, "We view UAA as a turnaround stock."

UAA is back. 

The analyst explained why:

We believe improving sales growth will cause the stock's valuation to increase: We view UAA as a turnaround stock. We believe UAA will achieve a 25% 5-yr. EPS CAGR and this growth will positively surprise the market. Importantly, we expect UAA to deliver considerable innovation and better leverage its brand name, which should help drive 2nd derivative improvement in the company's North America revenue growth rate. Our view is an improving North America sales growth rate will boost the stock’s valuation. Our $8 price target is 61% above the current stock price.

Investors materially undervalue the Under Armour brand name, in our view: Under Armour remains one of the world’s best known and liked athletic wear brands. UBS Evidence Lab's 11th annual global athletic wear survey reinforces our conviction in this view. Survey results indicate Under Armour’s brand name belongs in the same class of brands such as Lululemon, Jordan, Adidas, Puma, On, Hoka, Skechers, and New Balance. The average market cap for these brands which are publicly traded as standalone entities is $19B vs. just $2.1B for UAA. We’re not saying UAA is worth $19B, but rather the valuation differential between UAA and its competitors is far too wide in our view.

Two key survey takeaways:

• UAA's unaided brand awareness, purchase intentions, and attributes are strong. These stats are the main reasons we continue to believe the Under Armour brand name is powerful. Under Armour's unaided awareness is 4th globally for all athletic apparel brands, trailing only Nike, Adidas, and Puma (Fig. 4). With respect to athletic apparel purchase intentions, UAA ranks 4th among the global brands, behind just Nike, Adidas, and Puma (Fig. 12). Also, global consumers continue to associate Under Armour with phrases such as "high quality products" and "good for doing sports" more than they do for most other brands (Figs. 19-20).

• Product innovation will catalyze sales growth acceleration, in our view. Roughly 34% of global survey respondents associated the brand with innovation, but this is down ~500 bps y/y to a 8-yr. low (Fig. 29). This probably explains part of UAA's recent financial trend. However, we believe UAA's innovation will improve significantly (link) and this will drive better consumer perceptions as well as more loyalty (Fig. 39), conversion (Fig. 39), and full price selling (Fig. 45).

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note in the usual place, where Sole lays out the detailed thesis supporting an $8 price target.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 09:40

Vistra Jumps After Buying 10 Nat Gas-Fired Power Plants For $4 Billion

It didn't take long for markets to get a reminder of the screaming shortage of energy assets needed to energize the AI revolution. 

Late on Monday, electricity supplier Vistra agreed to pay $4 billion for 10 natural gas-fired power plants in the US Northeast and Texas to expand the electricity supplier’s generation capacity in fast-growing energy markets.   

The acquisition, which was funded with $2.3 billion in cash, $900 million in Vistra stock and the assumption of $1.5 billion in debt (partly offset by expected tax benefits) includes assets with a total capacity of 5.5 gigawatts on three major US grids: New England, Texas and PJM, the system that spans New Jersey to Chicago. 

The acquisition includes three combined cycle gas turbine facilities, two combustion turbine facilities located across PJM, four combined cycle gas turbine facilities in ISO New England and one cogeneration facility in ERCOT. The generators were purchased from Cogentrix Energy, which is indirectly owned by funds managed by Quantum Capital Group. 

"The addition of this natural gas portfolio is a great way to start another year of growth for Vistra as we've completed, acquired, or developed projects in each of the competitive power regions where we operate," said Vistra CEO Jim Burke.

This acquisition follows Vistra's $1.9 billion deal in May 2025 for seven gas-fired plants with nearly 2,600 megawatts of combined capacity from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, and will diversify and expand Vistra's geographic footprint by adding 5,500 megawatts of net capacity across some of the major power regions in North America.

The US Energy Information Administration estimates electricity consumption in the country to reach record highs in 2026, driven by surging demand from data centers racing to support Big Tech's growing AI ambitions.

Power providers are increasing their portfolios of power assets, and gas-fired plants in particular, to meet surging demand from electricity-hungry data centers.

The artificial intelligence boom has triggered a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the historically volatile independent power sector by spurring unprecedented demand growth. In response, investors have been bidding up power stocks as if they were tech giants.

Vistra has been on a buying spree since the $6.8 billion acquisition of a nuclear fleet in 2024 and the $1.9 billion purchase of seven gas plants in May. Rivals like NRG Energy and Constellation Energy Group also have been snapping up gas-fueled units in multibillion-dollar deals in recent months.

Gas plants are seen as ideal sources for around-the-clock data center demand. But, as Bloomberg notes, a key challenge is that the cost of building big new gas plants has more than doubled and new turbine orders won’t get delivered until at least 2030.

Vistra said it paid about $730 per kilowatt for the 10 generators owned by Cognetrix, which is slightly less than the $743 paid for seven plants last year. That’s about one-third the average cost for a new gas power plant, according to November 2025 report by BloombergNEF, suggesting that the deal was an absolute steal for Vistra. 

Vistra expects to close its latest purchase this year, pending federal and certain state regulatory approvals. Goldman Sachs & Co served as financial advisor and agreed to provide up to $2 billion in bridge loans. Evercore served as financial adviser to Cogentrix.

Vistra’s shares climbed as much as 6.6% in late trading Monday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 09:25

Colombia & Brazil Bolster Armed Forces At Borders, Bracing For Venezuelan Refugee Influx

After the weekend US military action in Venezuela, which triggered mixed reactions around the globe, Colombia and other nations in the region are preparing for a possible influx of refugees.

Sunday saw Colombian Defense Minister Pedro Sanchez order the deployment of 30,000 troops to the Venezuelan border to strengthen security, and this move coincided with putting emergency measures in place to assist displaced civilians.

Getty Images

There's been a much heavier military presence, for example, at the key Simon Bolivar International Bridge over the Tachira River linking Colombia and Venezuela near the border city of Cucuta. Colombian military armor has been observed there, according to regional reports.

However, these same reports say traffic has moved normally there, despite the extra security measures. Colombia had condemned the Trump-ordered action to capture Venezuela's Maduro, in part worried about a potentially destabilizing effect on the region.

Defense chief Sanchez has confirmed that security forces had been "activated" to deter any retaliatory actions by armed groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN) and Segunda Marquetalia, both which have operated largely unchecked inside Venezuela for years.

But without doubt Colombia's own armed groups have long exploited the rugged 1,300+-mile long frontier with Venezuela for drug trafficking and as a sanctuary from Colombian military operations.

Brazil too is bracing, after for years regional countries had to deal with millions of Venezuelans leaving their country and spiraling economy. The Wall Street Journal describes, "Roraima, the Brazilian state that serves as the main crossing point into the country, closed its border with Venezuela early Saturday, while Colombian President Gustavo Petro said he had deployed security forces at the country’s border in case of a 'massive influx of refugees.'"

"Some eight million Venezuelans have already fled their country in recent years, equivalent to about a quarter of the country’s population, putting pressure on public services in border regions and sparking xenophobic attacks," the report notes.

There are fears that there could be some kind of new internal fighting erupt in Venezuela, after Maduro's now former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as president. A fresh insurgency, or also counter-revolution, could emerge - but so far Caracas has remained relatively stable, with Trump telling new President Rodríguez to "behave".

But there are already reports that the new leader is reverting to tactics of the old, with several Tuesday headlines stating Venezuela launches wave of repression after US seizure of Nicolás Maduro.

via Wiki Commons

And a further source describes, "As the government continued to churn inside the presidential palace Miraflores, Venezuela’s military counterintelligence officials have been patrolling the streets of Caracas, according to at least two witnesses.

"At least seven journalists and members of the press were detained on Monday morning and early afternoon, most of them at the National Assembly and its surroundings, according to the national press workers syndicate," the report adds, before detailing further: "Heavily armed security forces and pro-government motorcycle gangs known as colectivos were seen roaming the capital, at times stopping drivers and checking their phones. While they aren’t as influential as they were at the height of Maduro’s power, the State Department has said they have been responsible for killings during protests."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 08:45

Global Stock Rally Fizzles, Futures Flat As Market Rotations Accelerate

US equity futures are flat with small caps underperforming as geopolitics dominate headlines, including aftershocks from the Maduro seizure and a potential US/EU deal that provides a security guarantee for Ukraine potentially with American soldiers maintaining a presence in Ukraine. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are flat as a rotation into regional shares broadened and investors awaited fresh data to gauge the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates; Nasdaq futures gain 0.2% even as Mag 7 names are weaker premarket ex-NVDA which is leading Semis higher after Jensen Huang's CES presentation. Futures took a brief spill overnight just around 3am ET when China announced it would launch export controls on Japan, which is negative for heavy machinery; futures then promptly recovered. Defensives are leading Cyclicals ex-Energy. Bond yields are higher by 1-2bp with USD also bid. Major European markets are mixed with UK leading and France lagging. Asian stocks are off to their best start since 2012 with the MXAP up 3% YTD. Today's US economic calendar includes December final S&P Global US services and composite PMIs at 9:45am. Scheduled Fed speakers include Barkin (8am) and Miran (8:30am)

In premarket trading Mag 7 names are mixed, with Nvidia gaining 0.6% as CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s much-anticipated Rubin data center processors are in production and customers will soon be able to try out the technology.(Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft is flat, Amazon -0.08%, Meta +0.9%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla -0.6%).

• Aeva (AEVA) jumps 23% after the company announced that its 4D LiDAR technology has been selected for the Nvidia Drive Hyperion autonomous vehicle reference platform.
• Core Scientific (CORZ) climbs 4% as BTIG upgrades to buy as the dust settles following shareholder rejection in October of its acquisition by CoreWeave.
• Frontier Group (ULCC) falls 3% after BofA cut the recommendation on the airline to underperform, expecting cost challenges in 2026 as aircraft rental fees rise.
• Microchip (MCHP) rises 4% after the analog chipmaker’s net sales forecast for the third quarter beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that the strong sales numbers highlight broad-based recovery.
• Oculis (OCS) rises 8% after the drug developer said its experimental therapy, Privosegtor, was granted the FDA’s breakthrough therapy designation for the treatment of optic neuritis — inflammation of the eye nerve.
• OneStream Inc. (OS) soars 22% as buyout firm Hg is in advanced talks to acquire the financial software maker, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Vistra Corp. (VST) climbs 4% after agreeing to pay roughly $4 billion for 10 natural gas-fired power plants in the US Northeast and Texas to expand the electricity supplier’s generation capacity in fast-growing energy markets.
• Zeta Global (ZETA) rises 9% after the software company announced that it has entered a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to power conversational intelligence and agentic applications behind Athena by Zeta, its superintelligent agent built for enterprise marketing.

In other corporate news, AB InBev will reacquire a 49.9% stake in US metal plants from a consortium of investors for $3 billion. Electricity supplier Vistra agreed to pay roughly $4 billion for 10 natural gas-fired power plants in the US Northeast and Texas. Software company Zeta Global announced a strategic collaboration with OpenAI.

The New Year rally appears to be losing steam, despite renewed appetite for the AI trade and cyclicals over defensives. Some of the biggest action is in commodities, with an index of base metals surging to the highest since March 2022 and copper rising above $13,000 a ton for the first time, which needless to say, is and will be inflationary. At the same time, stocks in Asia surged, but as Bloomberg notes, are now getting dangerously overbought, along with markets in Europe and emerging markets. The S&P 500’s 14-day relative strength index also suggests that US stocks might have further room to run, in contrast with other regions that have surpassed levels typically seen as overbought. Macro and geopolitical risks are numerous, with Venezuela, Greenland and Taiwan all in the headlines today. 

Stock investors have so far been largely unfazed by tensions in Venezuela, extending a three-year bull run that’s been fueled by demand for AI–linked shares. The next leg of the rally will depend in part on how quickly the Fed moves to further ease monetary policy, with business activity and jobs market data due this week to help shape rate expectations.

“We are waiting for data,” said Emilie Tetard, a cross-asset strategist at Natixis. “Before this data, as macro uncertainty is probably stronger in the US vs. the rest of the world, it’s a good time to put in place the diversification.”

Meanwhile, US oil producers such as Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips extended gains on President Donald Trump’s plans for the reconstruction of Venezuela’s crude industry.

The AI narrative is getting a boost from announcements at CES. AMD unveiled a new chip for corporate data centers, with CEO Lisa Su noting on AI that “we don’t have nearly enough compute for what we could possibly do.” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s highly-anticipated Rubin processors are on track for deployment by customers in the second half. “Demand is really high,” he said. And Intel’s comeback bid is relying on laptops shown at CES that are based on processors with a new design. As Bear Traps report Larry McDonald puts it, "the Pumpmaster is on Stage Again": Nvidia CEO Huang keynote address confirmed that Vera Rubin is now in full production and is expected to propel Nvidia back into the position of undisputed technical leader. Jensen noted that Vera Rubin contains 6 separate, revolutionary chips, and in years past, each one would have been made by a separate company, but Nvidia does them all itself. 

In the geopolitical sphere, Venezuela’s new acting president Delcy Rodríguez is seen as a choice that could stabilize Venezuela’s oil-based economy and facilitate American business. Elsewhere, Trump’s rationale for intervening in Venezuela is fueling concerns among European officials that they could soon face an existential dilemma over Greenland.

Elsewhere, the data may be on the side of bulls. According to Bloomberg, there have been just four years when the S&P 500 fell at least 15% and and still managed to achieve an annual advance of 15% or more. It happened in 1982, 2009, 2020 — and in 2025. The previous cases have all been followed by strong gains during the next year. Still, Wall Street bulls need a lot to go right if 2026 is going to deliver a fourth straight year of double-digit returns. Read more in today’s Taking Stock.

European stocks are mixed regionally, with the broad Stoxx 600 higher by 0.2%; health care leads, tech lags while miners are lifted after copper surged to a fresh record amid a renewed rush to ship the base metal to the US. Consumer products and services shares lag, with Adidas tailing the sector. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• InPost shares rise as much as 20% after the Polish logistics firm announced it had received an indicative proposal regarding a potential acquisition.
• Next shares climb as much as 3.7%, the most since October, after the fashion retailer reported strong Christmas sales and boosted its profit guidance for the fifth time this financial year.
• Tesco shares climb as much as 3.4% after Worldpanel by Numerator said the British grocer had increased sales and market share in the run-up to Christmas, taking its greatest slice of shoppers’ spend in more than a decade.
• Daimler Truck shares rise as much as 5.6%, hitting the highest level in four months, after the release of positive data for a key measure of North American truck orders.
• SMG Swiss Marketplace Group shares surge as much as a record 17%, after it announced an “amicable” agreement with Switzerland’s Price Supervisor regarding investigations into the Ricardo platform and SMG Real Estate business.
• Infineon shares rise as much as 5.1% after US peer Microchip gave an upbeat forecast and Bank of America lifted its price target, partly due to AI server exposure.
• Adidas shares fall as much as 7.6% after Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform, predicting a “material stepdown” in growth for the sportswear sector. Retailer JD Sports was cut to neutral, and its shares fall 7.2%.
• DSM-Firmenich shares drop as much as 1.3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal-weight, citing lingering uncertainty around the animal, nutrition and health exit structure and tough mid-term strategic targets for the core business.
• Liontrust Asset Management shares sink as much as 7.7%, the most in six months, as Deutsche Bank analysts cut their recommendation on the firm to sell from hold, and slash the target price by a third.

“It reflects a continuation of a theme that we are in the early innings of, which started last year, i.e. that US exceptionalism has peaked and has started to unwind,” Raymond Sagayam, managing partner at Banque Pictet & Cie SA, told Bloomberg TV.

Asian equities rose to a fresh record high, with a rally in Chinese shares helping fuel stronger risk appetite for the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.2%, poised for a fourth straight day of gains in what is poised to be its best-ever start to a year. Tech again remained a focus, with TSMC, SK Hynix and Hitachi among the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s advance. Key gauges in mainland China, Hong Kong as well as Japan rose more than 1%. China’s onshore CSI 300 Index climbed to the highest in four years on enthusiasm for the country’s AI industry and growing signs of an economic recovery. Investors hope for an extension of last year’s gains as Beijing backs key sectors and implements measures to curb excessive competition and revive the ailing property market. A subindex of financial shares also helped boost the Asian benchmark, after US peers climbed overnight. Japanese banks jumped after central bank Governor Ueda said he intends to keep raising rates in line with inflation. The rally in Asian stocks at the start of the year underscores their rising appeal for global investors wary of high tech valuations in the US and the prospect of a weakening dollar. It also points to the room left to run in the region’s tech shares, with Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. powering the gains over the past few days.

In FX, German inflation weighed on the euro, lifting the Bloomberg Dollar Index higher by 0.1%. G-10 FX moves are limited.

In rates, treasuries hold small losses in early US session, unwinding a portion of Monday’s gains with oil futures rising further and stock index futures stalled near record highs. European bonds outperform following soft German regional inflation prints. US yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper with curve spreads steeper; 2s10s topped 72bp, approaching 2025 wides; 10-year near 4.17% is about 1bp cheaper on the day, with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by about 3bp. German yields are lower by around 2bps across the curve following soft regional inflation metrics. In contrast, US yields are higher with the curve bear-steepening.

In commodities, WTI crude futures are building on yesterday’s gains, up 0.3%. There’s mixed fortunes for precious metals with spot silver higher by 2.2%. Gold faded initial gains and is now up just 0.2% while LME copper hit further all-time-highs, up 1.3%.Bitcoin has slipped throughout the session, trades lower by 0.4%. 

US economic calendar includes December final S&P Global US services and composite PMIs at 9:45am. Scheduled Fed speakers include Barkin (8am) and Miran (8:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX little changed, CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.17%
• VIX +0.3 points at 15.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1203.74
• euro little changed at $1.1715
• WTI crude +0.2% at $58.43/barrel

Top Overnight News

• China imposed controls on exports to Japan that could have military use, intensifying a dispute between Asia’s top economies over remarks Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi made last year on Taiwan. BBG
• Trump asked Marco Rubio to oversee an economic and political overhaul of Venezuela, leading a team that includes officials working on energy, finance and military police, White House adviser Stephen Miller said. BBG
• In late night Truth Social post, Trump announced that Danish territory is now an American “protectorate.” Denmark and the broader NATO alliance are extremely concerned the US could imminently seize Greenland and paralyze the NATO alliance. The Atlantic
• Trump said he believes the U.S. oil industry could get expanded operations in Venezuela "up and running" in fewer than 18 months. "A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue," he said. NBC
• Nvidia’s Rubin data-center chips are now in production as strong AI demand drives the need for more powerful systems, CEO Jensen Huang said. Rival AMD unveiled a new AI chip for corporate data-center use. BBG
• Nvidia said it has seen strong demand from customers in China for the H200 chip that the Trump administration has said it will consider letting the chipmaker ship to that country. BBG
• The Trump admin is planning to meet with executives from U.S. oil companies later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production. The meetings are crucial to the administration's hopes of getting top U.S. oil companies back into the South American nation. RTRS
• MCHP +430 bps in premkt after issuing its second upside preannouncement of the quarter, indicating potential recovery in demand for industrial and automotive chips.
• Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at a GOP member retreat at 10:00am ET on Tuesday and will participate in a policy meeting at 2:30pm ET. 
• Trump posted "Pregnant Women, DON’T USE TYLENOL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY, DON’T GIVE TYLENOL TO YOUR YOUNG CHILD FOR VIRTUALLY ANY REASON, BREAK UP THE MMR SHOT INTO THREE TOTALLY SEPARATE SHOTS". Full post "Pregnant Women, DON’T USE TYLENOL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY, DON’T GIVE TYLENOL TO YOUR YOUNG CHILD FOR VIRTUALLY ANY REASON, BREAK UP THE MMR SHOT INTO THREE TOTALLY SEPARATE SHOTS (NOT MIXED!), TAKE CHICKEN P SHOT SEPARATELY, TAKE HEPATITAS B SHOT AT 12 YEARS OLD, OR OLDER, AND, IMPORTANTLY, TAKE VACCINE IN 5 SEPARATE MEDICAL VISITS! President DJT".

Trade/Tariffs

• China Commerce Ministry imposes export controls on dual-use items to Japan, effective immediately

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall Street, where all major indices gained amid outperformance in energy and a softer yield environment. ASX 200 was the laggard with the index dragged lower by weakness in defensives and the top weighted financial sector, while metal and mining stocks were boosted after the recent climb in underlying commodity prices and reports of an AUD 8.8bln takeover offer for BlueScope Steel. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open to back above the 52,000 level with the advances led by mining and tech-related stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the predominantly upbeat mood, with outperformance in Hong Kong helped by strength in some property names and miners, while aluminium producer China Hongqiao Group led the advances as aluminium prices printed fresh three-year highs.

Top Asian News

• Japan sold JPY 1.96tln 10yr JGB, b/c 3.30x (prev. 3.59x), average yield 2.095% (prev. 1.872%). Lowest accepted price 99.99 vs prev. 98.53. Average accepted price 100.04 vs prev. 98.57. Tail in price 0.05 vs prev. 0.04.
• Japan's nuclear regulator said no irregularities at Chugoku Electric's (9504 JT) Shimane nuclear power plant following the earthquake.
• Earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.3 strikes at the Shimane Prefecture in Japan, according to NIED

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened with very modest gains, but have indices have since slipped a touch off best levels to show a bit more of a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors are mixed, with Health Care, Energy, and Basic Resource leading. Energy is advancing on higher crude prices, despite the absence of a clear catalyst. On a stock-specific basis, the sector is also being supported by gains in heavyweight names such as Shell (+1.6%) and BP (+1.9%). Meanwhile, sentiment in Basic Resources has been underpinned by strength in metal prices.

Top European News

• 'Coalition of the Willing' to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine

FX

• DXY resides in a narrow 98.161-98.425 range after recovering from worst levels on the back of some EUR softness (more below), although price action across FX thus far has been muted vs other markets (Equities, Fixed Income, Commodities). The US docket for today only consists of S&P Services and Composite Final PMIs alongside commentary from Fed's Barkin and Miran. Perhaps more importantly, US President Trump is due to give remarks later today.
• EUR is on a softer footing, with early weakness commencing shortly after the revisions lower to the French PMIs, whilst downward revisions in German Composite and EZ PMIs further weighed on the single currency. Moreover, German State CPIs were more dovish than the Nationwide figure (at 13:00 GMT) implies. EUR/USD resides towards the bottom end of a 1.1708-1.1743.
• GBP/USD trades flat towards the bottom of a 1.3528-1.3568 range with little immediate move seen on the slight revision higher in UK Services and Composite PMIs, with EUR/GBP flat intraday in a narrow 0.8644-0.8660. USD/JPY is also flat in a 156.17-156.80 range and largely trading at the whim of the USD.
• Antipodeans also see little price action but AUD continues to be supported by the recent rally in copper and gold.

Fixed Income

• Benchmarks began the morning on the backfoot, with downside of around five and 20 ticks for USTs and Bunds respectively. Action that came as the benchmarks trimmed into and through the APAC session, with further pressure emanating from weak demand at the Japanese 10yr tap; an auction that sent JGBs lower from 132.23 to a 131.93 session trough, trimming initial gains of around 15 ticks to losses of 16 at worst.
• Since, the complex generally benefited incrementally from a dip in the risk tone as China imposed export-controls on dual-use items to Japan.
• For EGBs, no real move to the French Prelim. HICP metrics, which came in as expected M/M and slightly cooler than expected Y/Y at 0.7% (prev. 0.8%). More pertinently, the German State CPIs ahead of the 13:00GMT nationwide figure, where consensus is for the headline Y/Y to moderate to 2.0% (prev. 2.3%) and the HICP Y/Y to 2.2% (prev. 2.6%); for the respective M/M, at 0.3% (prev. -0.2%) and 0.4% (prev. -0.5%). State CPIs lifted Bunds to a 127.67 high, firmer by 27 ticks at most. A move perhaps driven by the M/M for North Rhine-Westphalia coming in at 0.0% (prev. -0.3%), cooler than the nationwide expectations, as above, for a lift to 0.2% (prev. -0.2%).
• Ahead, USTs look to remarks from Fed's 2027 voter Barkin, text and Q&A expected, before the region's own Final PMIs.
• Germany sells EUR 4.4547bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.00% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.93x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.11% (prev. 2.05%), retention 24.22% (prev. 20.82%).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks started the APAC session on the backfoot, paring back some of Monday's gains before extending higher as the European session gets underway, despite a lack of crude-specific drivers.
• WTI and Brent pulled back to a low of USD 57.85/bbl and USD 61.31/bbl respectively after peaking at USD 58.51/bbl and USD 61.89/bbl in Monday's session. Benchmarks then bid higher pretty aggressively despite a clear explanation for the move, reaching a session high of USD 58.67/bbl and USD 62.14/bbl before pulling back slightly.
• Spot XAU trades choppy but managing to hold onto modest gains as the yellow metal sits above USD 4450/oz. After dipping to a trough of USD 4428/oz early in the APAC session, XAU extended on Monday's gains to peak at USD 4476/oz as European traders entered the market. Thus far, the yellow metal is trading in a tight USD 26/oz band above USD 4450/oz.
• 3M LME Copper continued its bid to new ATHs throughout the Asia-Pac session, following the risk-on tone in Asian equities. The red metal opened at USD 13.1k/t and immediately bid higher, peaking at USD 13.39k/t as the European session gets underway. As equities started to pull back, led by Nikkei 225 futures, following the imposition of export controls on dual-use items to Japan by China, 3M LME Copper has started to fall lower and is currently trading at USD 13.24k/t.
• China skips retail gasoline and diesel price adjustment.
• Goldman Sachs said Chinese steel mills face an extended period of depressed margins as efforts to cut capacity in the sector goes slower than expected, while exports remain high.
• ANZ said Venezuela oil output increase is unlikely until the end of the decade as aging infrastructure will require billions of dollars in spending, according to Bloomberg.
• Morgan Stanley expects another period of softness for crude ahead, Brent to fall into the mid-high USD 50/bbl region for the majority of 2026. Expect the market to be in a "significant" surplus before then returning to balance in H2-2027.

Geopolitics

• "Syria: Israeli forces infiltrate the southern countryside of Quneitra", according to Al Arabiya.
• Israeli Air Force struck multiple sites in Lebanon on Monday and early Tuesday, ahead of a key disarmament meeting, according to POLITICO.
• North Korea accuses Japan of reinvasion plotting over record-high defence budget, according to Yonhap.
• Shooting reported near presidential palace in Caracas, although Venezuelan government said situation is under control.
• US House Speaker Johnson said not expecting US troops on the ground in Venezuela, according to Bloomberg's Erik Wasson.
• Witnesses reportedly heard loud blasts near the Presidential Palace in Caracas, Venezuela, according to Bloomberg's Erik Wasson.
• Al Jazeera notes report of Israeli raid on vicinity of southern Lebanese town of Al-Ghaziyah.
• US President Trump has a list of demands for Venezuela's new leader including stopping oil sales to US rivals, according to POLITICO. "U.S. officials have told Delcy Rodriguez that they want to see at least three moves from her: cracking down on drug flows; kicking out Iranian, Cuban and other operatives of countries or networks hostile to Washington; and stopping the sale of oil to U.S. adversaries".
• US President Trump said Venezuela has to be fixed before elections and that acting President Rodriguez has been cooperating with the US, while Trump's advisor Miller said Venezuela is cooperating with the US and needs US permission to do any commerce. said:. US may subsidise an effort by oil companies to rebuild the country's energy infrastructure. Would not need lawmakers to act in order for him to send US troops back into Venezuela.
• CIA reportedly concluded that Venezuela's Maduro regime loyalists were best placed to lead Venezuela after Maduro, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Fox Business
• 9:45 am: Dec F S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 52.9, prior 52.9
• 9:45 am: Dec F S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, prior 53

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy NY to you from me for my first EMR of the year after 10 days in the Alps where my back stopped me from skiing, but the family just about managed to find enough snow to do so. Just 29 years after its release I watched Titanic for the first time during the trip, and Shaun the Sheep. Shaun the Sheep is very funny, Titanic less so.

From nautical disasters to economic ones, yesterday I published a short chart pack (link here) which documents the remarkable long-term decline of the Venezuelan economy, with a particular focus on the sharp deterioration since the early 2010s. In terms of other pieces, our new Head of Geopolitcal Research Helen Belopolsky in my team published a

quick note here on what the story tells us about Trump 2.0 in 2026 and our LatAm economist Francisco Campos published a blog here on the implications for the region.
So, in a fascinating start to the year, developments in Venezuela continued to dominate the headlines yesterday, as investors were finally able to react to the removal of President Nicolás Maduro. But for global markets, the striking thing was how most assets were almost completely unfazed by the geopolitical risk. The S&P 500 (+0.64%) closed -0.43% beneath its record high, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.94%) hit a fresh record. And despite an uptick in oil prices (reversing the small dip at the Asian open yesterday), there was even a bond rally on both sides of the Atlantic too, as a weak ISM manufacturing print pushed yields lower for 10yr Treasuries (-3.0bps) and bunds (-3.0bps). 

In terms of the latest, Maduro appeared in a New York court yesterday, pleading not guilty to drug trafficking and other charges and claiming “I am still president”. Meanwhile, in Venezuela Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president, calling for peace in the country. Overall, this left a sense that a smooth transition was playing out for now, though there were reports of some explosions in Caracas last night. 

Whilst global markets saw little reaction to the Venezuela developments, a few specific assets did see some outsized moves. Most obviously, there was a clear reaction among Venezuela’s bonds, with those maturing in 2027 surging by +29.28% on the day, moving up to 42.5 cents on the dollar. Another beneficiary were US oil stocks, and energy companies in the S&P 500 were up +2.67% yesterday. That included Chevron (the only major US oil company still operating in Venezuela), which posted a +5.10% increase, alongside big jumps for oil services majors SLB (+8.96%) and Halliburton (+7.84%). Last night, Trump suggested the administration might subsidise investment to rebuild Venezuela’s oil production and, according to Bloomberg, Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to meet with oil executives this week. Meanwhile, precious metals also saw the usual uptick we normally get in times of geopolitical stress, with gold (+2.70%) and silver (+5.18%) prices experiencing strong gains as well. Silver continuing its stunning gains from recent weeks.  

Against this backdrop, oil prices had a topsy-turvy session, swinging between gains and losses through the day. Initially when markets opened, there had been optimism that Maduro’s removal would open the way for higher oil production, particularly if US companies went in to repair the infrastructure as Trump had indicated. So that meant Brent crude initially fell beneath $60/bbl, down -1.65% from its closing level on Friday. But as the session went on, those initial hopes were tempered by the realisation that it would be difficult to rebuild that infrastructure quickly, and without significant cost. In the near-term there may even be disruption to the current Venezuelan supply, forcing normal buyers to quickly purchase elsewhere. So oil prices clawed back those losses to close up +1.66% at $61.76/bbl. In Asia it's down around -0.3%. 

In the meantime, there’s also been renewed focus on Greenland, given Trump’s weekend comments that “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security”. That led to a response from Danish PM Mette Frederiksen yesterday, who said she took Trump’s threats seriously, and that “if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO”. 

Whilst there were plenty of geopolitical developments, global equity and bond markets took those in their stride yesterday, with a cross-asset advance on both sides of the Atlantic. In part, that was down to a softer-than-expected ISM manufacturing print in the US, which raised hopes that the Fed would keep cutting rates this year. The headline measure for that fell to a 14-month low of 47.9 in December, and both the new orders (47.7) and employment (44.9) components were also clearly in contractionary territory. Prices paid (58.5) were within a couple of tenths of expectations. Fed funds futures were pricing in 60bps of cuts by the December 2026 meeting at the close, up +2.2bps compared with Friday. And in turn, US Treasuries rallied across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.2bps) down to 3.45%, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.0bps) fell to 4.16%. Overnight, they are back up +1.2bps and +2.0bps respectively. 

The prospect of faster rate cuts and the absence of a negative shock from the Venezuela developments meant it was also a good day for equities. Indeed, the S&P 500 (+0.64%) moved back within half a percent of its record high on Christmas Eve. The Dow Jones (+1.23%) reached a new record high of its own, with the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.58%) also surging as cyclical stocks outperformed. And the Mag-7 (+0.88%) rebounded after a run of 5 consecutive losses. Meanwhile in Europe, there were a whole bunch of records, with the STOXX 600 (+0.94%) and the DAX (+1.34%) both closing at record highs, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.04%) closed at its highest level since 2000.

Otherwise in Europe, Bloomberg reported yesterday that Italy planned to support the EU free-trade agreement with Mercosur. The article said that they’d back the deal when ambassadors vote on January 9, enabling the EU to sign on January 12. Meanwhile, sovereign bonds also rallied across the continent, with 10yr bund yields (-3.0bps) coming down to 2.87%, moving off their two-year high on Friday.

In Asia, equity markets are on course for their best start to a year since 2012. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (+1.64%), Shanghai Comp (+1.19%), Nikkei (+1.09%) and the KOSPI (+0.93%) are all leading the way.  Japan's Topix is surging +1.46% to reach a record high, bolstered by widespread gains in technology, industrial, and export-oriented sectors. S&P 500 (+0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.24%) futures are both inching higher along with European futures.  

10-year JGBs are +1.4bps at 2.123%, marking its highest point since 1999, after an auction that went ok. The bid-to-cover ratio was recorded at 3.30, in contrast to 3.59 from the last auction and a 12-month average of 3.24. 30-year JGB yields are up +3.9bps.  

Looking at the day ahead now, the main data releases will be the German and French CPI prints for December, along with the final services and composite PMIs for December from the US and Europe. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy and Cipollone, along with the Fed’s Barkin.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 08:36

EU's Carbon Border Tax Goes Live And Trade Partners Are Not Amused

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism launched on January 1 aims to level the playing field for European steel, cement, and power producers by taxing the carbon content of imports from countries with weaker emissions rules.

• China has threatened retaliation, calling CBAM unfair and discriminatory.

• While CBAM may protect EU industry, it risks higher prices for consumers and escalating trade disputes with major exporters

On Thursday, January 1st, the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism entered into effect with the goal of improving the competitiveness of European goods manufacturers against non-EU companies operating in laxer emissions reduction frameworks.

China was the first to threaten retaliation.

It won’t be the last.

The carbon border adjustment mechanism, or CBAM for short, was devised to remedy the unintended effects of the world’s most stringent emission-reduction standards for the industrial sphere, namely, sky-high costs that make the end product uncompetitive. This became especially painful for European makers of things such as steel and cement, where the biggest competitor is China—which does not have anything resembling the emission reduction requirements of the EU, so its steel and cement are very cheap, and buyers prefer them.

In other words, in order to boost the competitiveness of European steel and cement manufacturers—and electricity generators, too—the European Union made sure that cheaper imported steel, cement, and electricity are not that cheap anymore. China and India are unhappy about—and there are things they can do that will not help the competitiveness of European businesses.

As soon as the CBAM entered into effect, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement, in which it called the legislation “unfair” and “discriminatory”, Bloomberg reported.

“We will resolutely take all necessary measures to respond to any unfair trade restrictions,” the ministry said in its statement.

“CBAM is quite unpopular among major exporters to the EU, but it has already proven to be quite effective in pushing reticent countries towards building or expanding carbon pricing efforts,” one consultant specializing in carbon permit markets, told the Financial Times.

“So it’s a major policy shift for the EU to protect its own industry, while at the same time leveraging the carbon pricing idea to third countries.”

China, in fact, has its own carbon market, has had it since 2021, and it is the biggest carbon market in terms of the volumes of carbon emissions covered by it. With China, it’s not about selling the idea of carbon markets to third countries; it is about competitiveness. And China is not pleased that its competitiveness will be compromised.

In simple terms, the carbon border adjustment mechanism puts a price on the carbon dioxide emissions generated during the production of a good such as cement or steel. The price is based on calculations of the emissions from the respective industries in countries that export to the European Union. The mechanism puts a so-called default emission value for the production of a certain good, and also emission benchmarks, to be used in tandem in a way that is as of yet unclear, but some say it is, in fact, benefiting China.

Politico reported the concerns at the end of last year, citing industrial executives as saying the default values for emissions for certain countries that export to the EU were set too low to be real, including some steel production in China that, according to these estimates, turned out to be lower-emission than steel production in the EU.

“Inconsistencies in the figures of default values and benchmarks would dilute the incentive for cleaner production processes and allow high-emission imports to enter the EU market with insufficient carbon costs,” an industry representative told Politico.

“This could result in a CBAM that is not only significantly less effective but most likely counterproductive.”

Meanwhile, Indian steel imports are about to dry up because Indian steel producers appear not to have been included in the “inconsistencies”. India is the world’s second-largest steel producer after China and exports as much as 66% of its output to the European Union.

This is about to drop sharply next year because India’s steel manufacturing is done in blast furnaces fueled with coal, which is incompatible with the European Union’s emission reduction plans. The Reuters report notes steel mills could switch to electric arc furnaces, which have a lower emissions footprint, but such a switch would take time and money.

“Most of the companies are yet figuring out a way to deal with CBAM,” one analyst told Reuters. “In the near term, it is expected to slow down India's exports to EU,” Ravi Sodah, from Elara Capital, also said.

So, two of the world’s largest exporters of industrial goods, and major suppliers to the European Union specifically, are planning to respond to the CBAM by, at least in one case, curbing exports.

This would sure clear up the market for European producers, but it will not be welcome news to consumers of those goods, who would be footing the bill for what is essentially market intervention on the part of the European Union, and a protectionist market intervention, at that.

The United States is not going to be happy about it, either, and it will soon make its unhappiness known.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 08:05

Trump DOJ Admits Venezuela's 'Cartel De Los Soles' Isn't An Actual Organization

A major plank in the Trump administration's case for military intervention in Venezuela is looking thinner today, as the Department of Justice has retreated from the notion that captured President Nicolas Maduro was the head of an organized drug cartel called Cartel de los Soles. The DOJ now says the term "Cartel de los Soles" is merely descriptive of a "culture of corruption" fueled by the illegal drug trade.

This isn't semantics: Both the Treasury and State Departments had officially designated the non-existent group as a terrorist organization. The latest development seems to at least partially confirm doubts raised by outside observers and lend credence to denials by the Venezuelan government. In November, the country's foreign minister said he "absolutely rejects the new and ridiculous fabrication" by which Secretary of State Marco Rubio had "designated the non-existent Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated the non-existent "Cartel de los Soles" a terror organization in the run-up to intervention in Venezuela (pool photo)

The retreat from the idea that Cartel de los Soles is an actual organization was apparent in the DOJ's filing of a superseding (updated) indictment. The previous indictment referred to the supposed cartel 32 times, naming Maduro as its chief. The new one only mentions the term twice, and says it's only descriptive of a "patronage system" and a "culture of corruption" propelled by drug money. That's consistent with the fact that the DEA's annual National Drug Threat Assessment has never mentioned any "Cartel de los Soles" in its cataloguing of major traffickers.  

In July, the Treasury sanctioned Cartel de los Soles as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist," claiming it was a "criminal group headed by...Maduro." The "cartel" was accused of providing material support to two groups already on U.S. terrorist lists: Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua. Of course, those terrorist designations are themselves controversial, with critics saying the government is purposefully conflating criminality and terrorism. The latter term has long been understood to describe violence directed at civilians with the goal of achieving a political or ideological goal. Historically, exaggerated use of the term has largely been confined to the left.   

The DEA's annual National Drug Threat Assessment catalogues major drug cartels, but has never mentioned a "Cartel de los Soles" 

Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group, said the new indictment properly uses "Cartel de los Soles" -- essentially a slang term. "But the [terrorist] designations are still far from reality. Designations don’t have to be proved in court, and that’s the difference. Clearly, they knew they could not prove it in court,” she told the New York Times. Despite the DOJ's retreat, Rubio was still using the same rhetoric on Sunday, referring to "Cartel do los Soles" as a "criminal organization," with Maduro the "leader of that cartel." 

There was something important missing altogether from the superseding indictment: While cocaine is mentioned 67 times, there isn't a single reference to fentanyl, a drug the administration and allied Venezuela hawks repeatedly referenced in justifying the demolition of alleged Venezuelan drug-boats, and the broader drive for regime change. All along, critics pointed out that Venezuela has never been a meaningful producer or conduit of fentanyl, which is something even the DEA will tell you. 

After the raid on Venezuela, Vice President JD Vance attempted to counter ridicule of the administration's claimed drug-related motives  -- much of which is coming from the growing, non-interventionist segment of the American right. "Cocaine, which is the main drug trafficked out of Venezuela, is a profit center for all of the Latin America cartels. If you cut out the money from cocaine (or even reduce it) you substantially weaken the cartels overall. Also, cocaine is bad too!" 

Then-Secretary of State Colin Powell makes a case to the UN that Saddam Hussein was developing weapons of mass destruction (Reuters)

Comparing Trump's rhetoric to that of George W. Bush in the run-up to the Iraq invasion, Maduro last year accused the administration of crafting "a bizarre narrative," since it couldn't accuse Venezuela of hiding weapons of mass destruction. In December, Maduro's comparison grew more apt when Trump creatively declared illicit fentanyl and its core precursor chemicals to be "weapons of mass destruction."  While many MAGA conservatives who repudiate the Iraq war and other neocon interventions have been cheering on Trump's Venezuela raid, some may be starting to find the parallels are stronger than they're comfortable with.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 06:55

Major Data Breaches Put Hundreds Of Thousands Of New Zealanders At Risk

Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders could have their personal information exposed online after hackers breached two major websites and stole large amounts of data.

In this photo illustration, hacker types on a computer keyboard on May 13, 2025. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

In the first case, a group calling itself Kazu announced it had obtained records from the Manage My Health (MMH) website, an online portal that connects patients with doctors and healthcare providers and allows them to access health information, book appointments, and order repeat prescriptions.

The website collects and manages sensitive information about patients.

Some released samples by the hacker reportedly included information about patients’ conditions, medical test results, clinical notes, vaccination records, medical photographs and personal identification details.

Initially, the hackers demanded a $60,000 ransom to stop them from releasing the more than 400,000 files online by Jan. 15, 2026.

However, on Jan. 4, the group said on its Telegram channel that it had brought forward the payment deadline to Jan. 6, citing MMH’s quick response to the hack and an alleged lack of concern for patients’ data.

“Their ignorance of our emails and messages, along with their failure to acknowledge users or explain exactly what happened, is the main issue,” the group Kazu wrote on Telegram.

“Many MMH users have been asking the company for an explanation, but they’ve either ignored them or responded with vague statements.

“That’s why we decided to reduce the deadline and put pressure on the company.”

Hacker Group Wants A ‘Minimum’ Ransom

At the same time, Kazu explained that the group decided to settle for a “minimum” ransom of $60,000 instead of the initial amount of $300,000 “to protect the data and quickly close the deal.”

Kazu also threatened to leak the files if the ransom was not paid in the next 48 hours.

The most recent threat to release the confidential health data of hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders from the ransomware group Kazu's Telegram channel. Screenshot/The Epoch Times. MMH’s Response

In an update on Jan. 3, MHH announced that the company had fixed the security gap and strengthened data protection.

“We’ve identified and closed the specific gaps that allowed unauthorised access. This fix has been independently tested and verified by external cybersecurity experts,” it said.

“We’ve added extra checks when people log in and limited how many times someone can try to access the system in a short time.

“All health documents have been re-secured and their storage has been strengthened.”

The company also noted that the website’s system environment was now secure and operated as intended.

MHH expected 6-7 percent of its estimated 1.8 million users were affected by the incident amid an ongoing investigation.

“We expect to start notifying those affected following confirmation of forensics and liaison with PHOs and GPs to ensure that individuals are getting the right information, in line with Privacy Act requirements, and are properly supported,” it said.

“The forensic team is continuing work to confirm our analysis of the specific documents involved. Completion of this step will enable us to proceed with more targeted communications to affected parties and we will start informing people directly from early next week.”

Meanwhile, New Zealand Health Minister Simeon Brown said his ministry was reviewing the breach.

“I know this breach will be very concerning to the many New Zealanders who use Manage My Health, and we need assurances around the protection and security of people’s health data,” Brown said in a statement.

“Patient data is incredibly personal, and whether it is held by a public agency or a private company, it must be protected to the highest of standards.”

The minister also noted that the review would be conducted no later than Jan. 30, with a focus on an “immediate response to the incident.”

Neighbourly Data Breach

In an unrelated but similar incident, the personal details of users of a large “community noticeboard” type website called Neighbourly have also been offered for sale on the dark web.

People use the site to make announcements, contact other members, and buy and sell items.

The site is run by media company Stuff, which runs several newspapers and a news website, and provides a daily news bulletin for one of the country’s TV networks.

According to The Daily Dark Web, a website that monitors activity on the dark web, about 150GB of data was stolen from Neighbourly by an unnamed threat actor, including full names and physical addresses, email addresses, phone numbers, GPS coordinates, user biographies, and private messages.

Neighbourly was shut down on New Year’s Day and restored recently, with the site confirming the breach on Jan. 3.

In a message to its users, Neighbourly operating team apologised for the incident and informed them that the data breach had been contained.

“Following best practice, we will look to seek a court injunction against any use of the material,” the team said.

“We want to apologise to our members for this occurrence and any concerns it may have caused you over the past few days.

“We will work closely with all our staff to ensure we have the most robust processes in place to prevent it from happening again.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 06:30

Visualizing The Decline Of Global Wine Production (And Consumption)

Wine production and consumption have entered a sustained decline over the last decade.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, tracks how global wine output, consumption, and trade have evolved since 2015.

The data for this visualization comes from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV). It tracks production, consumption, and imports from 2015 through 2024, measured in billions of liters.

Wine Production Hits a Decade Low

Global wine production peaked intermittently during the late 2010s, reaching nearly 30 billion liters in 2018.

Since then, output has steadily fallen, dropping to just 22.6 billion liters in 2024. That represents an almost 19% decline over the nine-year period.

Extreme weather events, including droughts, heatwaves, and late frosts, have disrupted harvests in major wine-producing regions. At the same time, rising costs and tighter environmental regulations are adding pressure to growers worldwide.

Consumption Declines More Gradually

While production has fallen sharply, global wine consumption has declined at a slower pace. Total consumption dropped from about 24.1 billion liters in 2015 to 21.4 billion liters in 2024, a decline of roughly 11%.

Health-conscious lifestyles, aging populations in traditional wine markets, and younger consumers drinking less alcohol overall are contributing factors.

Global Trade Shows Signs of Softening

Wine imports have also edged lower, falling about 6.5% over the same period.

After peaking above 11 billion liters in the early 2020s, global wine trade slipped below 10 billion liters by 2023 and 2024.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: Which Country Consumes the Most Coffee? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 05:45

Electric Cars Make Up Nearly 96% Of New Car Sales In Norway

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In 2025, electric cars accounted for 95.9 percent of all new cars sold in Norway, the Norwegian Road Traffic Information Council (OFV) said in a statement on Jan. 2.

The Tesla logo on the hood of a car in Oslo, Norway, on Nov. 10, 2022. Victoria Klesty/Reuters

“This means that the goal set by politicians 10 years ago has been achieved: New car sales in Norway are now emission-free,” it said. A total of 179,550 new passenger cars were registered last year, breaking the previous annual record set in 2021.

“2025 was also the year when the number of electric cars surpassed the number of diesel cars and became the largest powertrain in the total passenger car population,” the statement said.

For December 2025 specifically, 35,188 new passenger cars were registered in the country, with electric cars accounting for 97.6 percent of these vehicles, a sign of how EVs “now dominate new car sales” in the country, OFV said.

Norway, with a population of around 5.53 million, is a high-income country, according to Harvard data. With a GDP per capita of $87,702, the nation is the third-richest ⁩per capita among 145 countries. Norway’s oil wealth helps sustain its welfare system.

Tesla consolidated its position as “Norway’s largest car brand” last year, with a record 34,285 new passenger cars registered—a 19.1 percent market share, roughly one in five new cars.

Tesla’s Model Y set an annual record last year, hitting 27,621 first-time registrations, which is the “highest number ever registered for a single car model in Norway in one year,” according to OFV.

Chinese companies also saw their share in Norway’s EV market rise last year. A total of 24,524 new passenger cars registered last year were of Chinese origin. This accounted for 13.7 percent of new car sales, up from 10.4 percent the previous year, according to the council. The biggest Chinese car brand was BYD.

“2025 has been a very special car year. We see the effect of long-term and targeted electric car policy, and how specific tax decisions have immediate effects on the market,” OFV Director Geir Inge Stokke said.

“The final sprint towards the end of the year has been historically strong, and there is no doubt that the VAT change from January 1, 2026, has contributed to a great many choosing to secure a new electric car before the year was over.”

As for the European Union overall, electric cars accounted for 16.9 percent of the EU new car registrations for the January–November 2025 period, according to a Dec. 23, 2025, statement from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.

The biggest markets for new EV registrations in the EU were Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France, with registrations in Germany jumping over 41 percent year-over-year.

However, hybrid-electric cars remained the “preferred choice among EU consumers,” accounting for 34.6 percent of new registrations, more than double the share of electric cars, the association said.

While EV sales in the EU remain robust, the picture is different in the United States.

New U.S. EV sales in November 2025 are estimated to total 70,255 units, down 41.2 percent from a year ago, industry expert Cox Automotive said in a Dec. 15 statement. Compared to October 2025, November sales were down 5.2 percent.

Cox attributed the slump to the expiration of a federal tax credit.

The New Clean Vehicle Tax Credit granted buyers of new EVs up to $7,500 in incentives. The measure was included in the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022.

President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law in July 2025, ending the credits on Sept. 30 of that year.

“Market share reached multi-year lows as sales declined. Weak demand fueled a surge in inventory, with days’ supply reaching elevated levels. Pricing eased across the market, underscoring an industry struggling to find balance in the post-incentive era,” Cox said.

“As we head into 2026, the EV market will continue navigating post-incentive challenges, with inventory and pricing dynamics shaping near-term performance.”

As for the overall new-vehicle sales situation in the United States, Cox estimates the number will reach 16.3 million units in 2025, up by almost 2 percent from 2024 and the “best result since 2019,” the company said in a Dec. 17 statement.

For 2026, Cox predicts new-vehicle sales pace to decline by 2.4 percent to 15.8 million units, highlighting factors such as the lack of EV tax incentives.

While Tesla saw sales jump in Norway, its global performance has taken a hit. In 2025, the company delivered 1.64 million units, according to a Jan. 2 statement. This is down 8.3 percent from 1.79 million deliveries in 2024.

Tesla shares fell by 2.59 percent on Jan. 2.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 05:00

Russia Straps MANPADS Missile On Shahed Drone To Counter Attack Helicopters 

Low-cost drones have transformed modern warfare forever during the nearly four-year-long Russia-Ukraine war. These commercially available systems have been used to strike cities, power grids, ports, refineries, and military bases, delivering maximum impact at minimal cost.

The evolution of these drones is notable as well. One major issue that drones on both sides of the battlefield have faced is counter-drone operations involving electronic warfare, interceptor drones, fighter jets, and attack helicopters. However, none have yet proven consistently effective at scale.

In response, both sides have increasingly deployed attack helicopters to hunt drones, using machine guns and missiles to shoot them down at close range.

To deter enemy aircraft, the Russians apparently have mounted a shoulder-fired man-portable air defense missile on top of an Iranian-designed loitering munition known as a Shahed-136.

Military blog Army Recognition states Ukrainian forces have "intercepted for the first time a Shahed drone fitted with an Igla-S MANPADS missile."

Here’s more color on the first publicly documented case of a MANPADS missile mounted on a Shahed drone for air defense purposes:

On January 4, 2026, the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces stated that fighters from the Darknode Battalion of the 412th Nemesis Brigade intercepted a Russian Shahed-type kamikaze drone fitted with an Igla-S man-portable air defense system. This variant, observed for the first time during the war, carried a camera and a radio modem, allowing the missile to be launched remotely by an operator located on Russian territory to threaten Ukrainian helicopters and low-flying aircraft involved in counter-drone interception.

Ukraine may now have to allocate more air defense assets and counter-UAS resources to deal with such a threat, as MANPADS-armed drones could potentially serve as a decentralized air defense layer for Russia's advancing forces. (Picture source: Ukrainian MoD)

According to Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian military and technical expert, the missile launch was not automatically but manually triggered by the Shahed operator using the onboard camera feed and radio link. This new variant was assessed as being intended to engage Ukrainian helicopters and other low-flying aircraft that had previously intercepted Russian drones at close range using machine guns or cannons. Army aviation crews were warned to avoid approaching Shahed drones on a head-on course and to be particularly cautious when encountering drones flying in circular or loitering patterns, which were interpreted as potential attempts to draw aircraft into missile engagement zones. Ukrainian units also indicated that examination of the tactics associated with this configuration was ongoing in order to adapt interception procedures.

The rapid evolution of low-cost drones is a concerning development, and it is almost certainly only a matter of time before such drones appear in the Americas. Drug cartels in Mexico are already known to have deployed smaller ones for surveillance and attacks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 04:15

Germany's Middle Class Under Siege In 2026

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Save in times of plenty, and you’ll have in times of need. An old German proverb, now proving tragically prophetic. The hardship caused by a completely derailed climate-socialist ideology is only just beginning. This socialist experiment is likely to continue ravaging the country until its economic substance is entirely consumed.

The new year begins as the old one ended: a fiscal raid on the wallets of the middle class. In Brussels and Berlin, there is satisfaction that citizens have been quietly, without spectacle, subjected to yet more tax increases—whose revenues, like a rising tide, lift all ships only slightly.

On January 1, the CO₂ price per ton of emitted gas rose from €55 to €65. This levy, applied to fossil fuels such as gasoline, diesel, natural gas, and heating oil, threads like a red line through the entire value chain—even reaching private households’ bills. The green extraction mechanism is now firmly entrenched, funding Brussels’ expanding activities increasingly, and is defended tooth and nail by the ruling politicians.

The Lie of Tax Relief 

When the federal government celebrates its minimal tax relief for lower- and middle-income groups, reality tells a different story. In truth, these relentless fiscal collectors are increasing the tax burden further. Only the distracting work of state-affiliated media prevents the growing hyperstate’s costs from becoming fully visible.

2026 is set to become an expensive year for Germany’s shrinking middle class, visible soon on the first paycheck of the year. That will reveal the true cost of an overextended welfare state and the one-of-a-kind experiment of transforming Germany’s social insurance system into a quasi-global insurance scheme.

Never since World War II has the German middle class faced such fiscal and economic pressure.

The Burden of State Subsidies on the Middle Class 

The countless subsidies and state interventions financing the complex “green arts” sector, the Ukraine war, and now the military buildup constitute a direct attack on the German middle class. Businesses and net taxpayers pay an ever-rising “blood price” each year to sustain Berlin’s and Brussels’ ideological and power ambitions.

The still-active renewable energy subsidy program, the EEG, alone consumes over €16 billion this year for an energy grid that, since the end of nuclear power, no longer provides a secure base for industrial production, sending both industrial and household electricity costs to dizzying heights. Trittin’s “ice ball” has become a cost Himalaya no one can climb.

Germany’s seven-year industrial decline, which is now accelerating, precisely chronicles the path of the deliberate destruction of its industrial base. Nearly 300,000 industrial jobs have been lost since 2018—tragic, yet apparently of little concern to Berlin’s policymakers.

Local city treasurers, however, are feeling the pain: as corporate tax revenues collapse under industrial destruction, citizens can expect cuts in public services and steep tax hikes. Schools, kindergartens, sports facilities—all face drastic savings. A big “thank you” goes to Berlin central planning.

Industry on the Edge: Loans Fizzle 

What Friedrich Merz, Ursula von der Leyen, and other central planners aim for is clear: using state loans to occupy freed-up industrial capacities. Yet no matter how much funding flows into the new social program under the banner of a special fund for green and military production—the effect has already fizzled. In December, the entire Eurozone industrial sector, measured by current Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI), slipped into recession. Germany has been continuously downsizing its industry for seven years.

A victory for Brussels’ central planners, whose goal appears to be the economic and geopolitical neutralization of the country. After years of deindustrialization and waves of bankruptcies, this strategy is hard to interpret otherwise. Germany’s PMI now sits at 47 points—clearly in contraction. Hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost this year. Last year alone, 24,000 companies went bankrupt. Exact figures for job and net direct investment outflows are not yet available; in 2024, €64.5 billion flowed out of Germany. German industry is no longer competitive.

Quick Blame Game 

The culprits are quickly identified. U.S. tariffs, a favorite topic of sympathetic media, are often cited, though the crisis began long before Donald Trump. Dumping competition from China is also highlighted. While this is a factor, 99 percent of Germany’s economic problems are homegrown.

No one forced the country to keep its borders wide open for a decade, pushing its social insurance to the brink of collapse—all to create new voter bases for the united political left and to break resistance from the bourgeois right.

Shrinking Middle Class and Falling Investments 

This trend is reflected in the middle class. The DATEV SME Index shows falling real revenues across all sectors, particularly trade, construction, and consumer services. Investments are nearly frozen: only 20 percent of companies plan rising investments, according to LBBW’s SME radar for the coming year.

The ideological green agenda has left its mark. High electricity costs, falling incomes, and persistent inflation are bleeding the middle class dry. Retail felt this for the first time during Christmas: nominal sales rose 1.5 percent, yet real sales fell by 1 percent in the peak month.

Economic stress will be a constant companion for Germany’s middle class in 2026. High property prices, zero real interest on savings, and rapid erosion of economic substance collide with an ever-expanding state. Bureaucracy and the state apparatus are evolving into a parasitic leviathan, funded by a shrinking number of contributors.

Consequences for Industry, Trade, and City Centers 

Too much depends on Germany’s high industrial value creation: service businesses, high factor incomes, and secure municipal finances—all are now being lost, reflected in city centers.

Where once life flourished, roughly 5,000 retailers die every year, an irretrievable loss. The desolation mirrors what citizens feel in their wallets: the ebb has begun.

The middle class’s evaporating purchasing power is most visible in hospitality, where families cut costs first. Hotels lost 3.7 percent in real revenue in 2025, while restaurants and bars fell 4.1 percent year-on-year. Households are saving wherever possible. High energy costs, rising social charges, and a weakening job market leave a trail of economic decline.

Missed Lessons: The Population and the Crisis 

Structural economic crises take time to penetrate public consciousness. Most households first tighten belts without complaint.

The state exploits this calm before the storm to consume citizens’ wealth faster than the private sector can compensate. With net new debt over 5.5 percent this year—including accounting tricks—this is particularly evident. The devotion of a portion of the population to ideological doctrine becomes an expensive, destructive tragedy.

Germany faces a nation unprepared to draw necessary lessons: reversing migration policy, adapting the bloated state apparatus to new economic realities, and downsizing accordingly. A turn toward a meritocratic market economy remains absent.

Until these lessons are learned and acted upon, Germany will continue to fall.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 03:30