Zero Hedge

US Veteran Freed From Venezuelan Prison After Latest Trump Diplomacy With Maduro

US Veteran Freed From Venezuelan Prison After Latest Trump Diplomacy With Maduro

In another diplomatic win for the Trump administration, a US Air Force veteran unlawfully imprisoned in Venezuela has been released on Tuesday, following secret talks with President Nicolás Maduro's representatives and Trump's special envoy Ric Grenell.

Joseph St. Clair, a 33-year-old combat-disabled veteran, had been detained in Venezuela since November, and was one of nine Americans declared by Washington as 'wrongfully detained'.

Images source: the St Clair family/770 KTTH Conservative Talk Radio

"This news came suddenly, and we are still processing it — but we are overwhelmed with joy and gratitude," parents Scott and Patti St. Clair said.

Few initial details of his release or the terms of any possible deal or incentives offered Maduro have not been forthcoming. However, Grenell's talks with Venezuelan officials, reportedly in Antigua, likely focused on both oil and the migrant crisis.

Conservative news outlet Newsmax says it "learned that Grenell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday extended the waivers for U.S. companies' oil licenses in Venezuela by 60 days."

Clearly the Maduro government is ready to engage in top-level negotiations with Washington, in hopes for sanctions relief, and in return it is likely also willing to take back migrants.

According to background on St. Clair's arrest last year:

Air Force veteran Joe St. Clair, their 33-year-old son, was traveling as a tourist near the Venezuelan border in October 2024 when he and a friend from Colombia were arrested by Venezuelan authorities, who transported them across the border to a Venezuelan prison, his family said. “We learned that Joe decided to take a trip near the border with one of his friends to visit [the friend’s] family member and got too close to the border and got abducted by the Venezuelan police,” Scott St. Clair explained.

“They were shaken down, questioned and searched. All their possessions were taken.” St. Clair said he was told the border is “fluid,” and that Venezuelan authorities detain Americans as bargaining chips to gain leverage against the U.S. to ease restrictions placed on the country. Joe is a linguist who served as a tech sergeant in the Air Force until 2019. He was honorably discharged after nine years of service, his family said.

He had actually been deployed on four combat tours in Afghanistan. It's unclear whether the two travelers were inside Venezuelan territory or not.

This follows an initial big release of six Americans from Venezuela back in late January...

St. Clair's parents had been very active in public lobbying for his freedom, calling on President Trump to "act now to save Joe and his fellow captives" at various events and rallies, including in D.C.

Trump has of late been emphasizing a foreign policy message of peace through strength and dealmaking and diplomacy, as opposed to the chaos of proxy wars and conflict.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 19:40

Experts Warn Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" Could Codify Big Land Grabs

Experts Warn Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" Could Codify Big Land Grabs

Agricultural advocates and lawmakers are sounding the alarm this week, as section 41001 of the proposed Budget Reconciliation Act (the Big Beautiful Bill) contains language that would centralize local authority to the federal government regarding land use and land expropriation.

Beginning under the Biden administration's Federal Plan for Equitable Long-Term Recovery and Resilience (ELTRR), funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the USDA credit line, known as the Commodities Credit Corporation (CCC), were allocated to ideologically aligned Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). 

Using contract law, NGOs were then tasked with creating a carbon market and strategic buyout programs for federally funded public-private land acquisitions—entered into as an agreement structure with local municipalities—to facilitate the Green New Deal.  

Carbon capture has captured Farm Credit, and could soon capture lands across America's Heartland.

Amid a flurry of administrative rule changes, the Biden administration prioritized government-backed Farm Credit lending for rural utilities. Reallocating parts of the USDA's Rural Development budget, the Biden administration attracted "eligible organizations" to "invest in renewable energy infrastructure and zero-emission systems," to "significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

Simultaneously, as part of the ELTRR's "whole-of-government" approach; the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) exempted certain "Green Energy" infrastructure projects, such as solar and carbon capture from Environmental Impact Studies, while 45Q tax credits promised billions in government subsidies, and agencies eased land acquisition regulations for "Federally Assisted Programs."

This coalescence created a proverbial gold rush. Suddenly, private equity firms like Blackrock and Vanguard quickly began backing projects for Carbon Sequestration infrastructure, such as the 2,500-mile C02 pipeline project spanning five states. 

Now, as Congress works to immediately halt IRA funding and reign-in the "whole-of-government," state lawmakers and agricultural advocates warn the cure could exacerbate the disease.

According to Amanda Radke, a fifth-generation cattle rancher who has fought against giving private corporations eminent domain power in South Dakota, "this proposal would open the door for federal overreach and eminent domain abuse, especially with the $10 million price tag to fast-track these projects."

"I'm deeply concerned that the current proposal for the budget reconciliation bill will grant centralized federal authority over the permitting of carbon dioxide pipelines," Radke said. "This Green New Deal has held America hostage for far too long, and it's time for Congress to cut ties with this boondoggle once and for all. Landowners across the nation are calling for Congress to cut wasteful spending, halt the subsidies of the IRA like the 45Q tax credit, and protect our private property rights." 

S.D. landowners have also found a fierce advocate in Speaker of the House, Rep. Jon Hansen. Hansen, who is now running for Governor,  and running-mate Rep. Karla Lems, have led the charge to protect private property rights in the State of South Dakota. 

However, according to Hansen, these hard-won efforts could now be a moot point. 

"President Trump has made it very clear that he wants to end the Green New Deal scam. In spite of that, politicians in Washington are trying to sneak a provision deep in the budget bill that would override the hard-fought protections that we have put into place for farmers, ranchers, and land owners in South Dakota," Hansen told ZeroHedge.

While GOP leadership has made quiet promises that the bill will be amended, an updated draft has yet to materialize prior to Wednesday's vote. A fact that isn't sitting well with Radke or Hansen.

"While we've been told this language would be cut on Wednesday morning, farmers and ranchers are waiting for reassurance from Congressional leaders that our land is, in fact, not for sale to the highest bidder," Radke said. 

For Hansen, however, anything short of killing this section, will be considered an absolute failure.

"All members of Congress must reject this proposal," Hansen said. "Anything short of killing the land grab proposal and totally defunding the 45Q tax credit is an absolute failure to deliver on ending the green new deal scam and a failure to defend our peoples' constitutional rights."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 18:50

Israel Preparing Possible Preemptive Attack On Iranian Nuclear Facilities: US Intelligence

Israel Preparing Possible Preemptive Attack On Iranian Nuclear Facilities: US Intelligence

Update(1830ET): At a moment it has become very clear that Netanyahu could care less about 'pressure' from Western allies the US, UK, and Canada, there are breaking reports Tuesday evening that a preemptive Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites could be imminent. According to CNN:

The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran, multiple US officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.

Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump, US officials said. It could also risk tipping off a broader regional conflict in the Middle East — something the US has sought to avoid since the war in Gaza inflamed tensions beginning in 2023.

The same report underscores that no 'final decision' has been made yet, and this is perhaps another ploy by the Israelis to show the West and the Mideast region that it means business, in the wake of "Israel's 9/11" - the Oct.7, 2023 Hamas terror attacks. 

The late in the day headline resulted in an immediate spike in oil prices... 

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The United Kingdom on Tuesday suspended its free-trade agreement negotiations with Israel over the growing Gaza crisis, and after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed disgust at newly expanded Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, also as famine threats at least 500,000 Palestinians.

Starmer described that he and his French and Canadian counterparts are "horrified" by the Netanyahu government's escalation in Gaza. This also comes as international headlines and warnings grow more dire. For example Al Jazeera has the following new headline: "Starving Palestinians resort to eating animal feed, flour mixed with sand".

"We repeat our demand for a ceasefire as the only way to free the hostages, we repeat our opposition to settlements in the West Bank, and we repeat our demand to massively scale up humanitarian assistance into Gaza," Starmer told parliament.

David Lammy with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, via GPO

A Monday joint statement by the UK, France and Canada had threatened sanctions on Israel. Britain further did slap targeted sanctions on Israeli settler groups and individuals. 

Later on Tuesday, Foreign Secretary David Lammy voiced agreement with Starmer, saying that Israel’s actions are "morally wrong" and "unjustifiable." He also said of the fresh sanctions, "I have seen for myself the consequences of settler violence. The fear of its victims. The impunity of its perpetrators."

In announcing the pause in free-trade agreement negotiations, Lammy further revealed that the Israeli ambassador had been summoned. Britain is reportedly demanding the full resumption of humanitarian aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip.

Responding to shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel, Lammy told parliament:

I think the whole house should be able to utterly condemn the Israeli government’s denial of food to hungry children. It is wrong. It’s appalling.

Opposing the expansion of a war that has killed thousands of children is not rewarding Hamas. Opposing the displacement of 100,000s of civilians is not rewarding Hamas. On this side of the house, we are crystal clear that what is happening is morally wrong, unjustifiable, and it needs to stop.

Starting Friday the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced an expanded mobilization of troops for operation 'Gideon's Chariots'. Some two million Palestinians are expected to be forced into a "humanitarian zone" while most of the enclave is destroyed and flattened.

The policy somewhat contradicts Trump's main messaging during last week's Gulf tour, wherein he emphasized peace through deal-making, and not 'chaos' in the war-torn Middle East. 

This is probably the most pressure Israel has come under from its Western allies since Oct.7, 2023. As we previously reported, even Vice President JD Vance abruptly canceled a planned trip to Israel following the Netanyahu government's declaration that it would ramp up operations to conquer all of Gaza.

Meanwhile the domestic policy fight within Israel has been ramping up too...

Axios had written that "The US official said Vance made the decision because he didn't want his trip to suggest the Trump administration endorsed the Israeli decision to launch a massive operation at a time when the U.S. is pushing for a ceasefire and hostage deal." 

Neither the US nor UK have every fully cut funding or arms transfers to Israel for any reason, and are unlikely to ever escalate to that point, no matter how tense relations become.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 18:33

After Credit Downgrade, Maryland's Leftist Governor Torpedoes Reparations Bill To Avoid Political Blowback

After Credit Downgrade, Maryland's Leftist Governor Torpedoes Reparations Bill To Avoid Political Blowback

The optics are grim for far-left Maryland Governor Wes Moore. As the state grapples with a fiscal crisis (deficit explosion), a credit downgrade, illegal alien invasion, violent crime, the looming threat of resident and business flight, a potential tsunami of new taxes, and a worsening power crisis, Moore is facing a growing backlash from all Marylanders. His ability to lead is increasingly being questioned—and it's becoming clear he's far from presidential material.

Moore has managed to anger both sides of the political aisle. The latest outrage comes from within his own party after he vetoed a bill that would have established a state commission to study and recommend reparations for African Americans affected by slavery.

In a letter explaining his decision, Moore said it's not the time for another study, emphasizing the need for direct action to address racial disparities such as the wealth gap, homeownership, education, and food insecurity.

"I will always protect and defend the full history of African Americans in our state and country," Moore wrote in his letter, adding, "But in light of the many important studies that have taken place on this issue over nearly three decades, now is the time to focus on the work itself: Narrowing the racial wealth gap, expanding homeownership, uplifting entrepreneurs of color, and closing the foundational disparities that lead to inequality — from food insecurity to education."

He continued: "We have moved in partnership with leaders across the state to uplift Black families and address racial disparities in our communities. That is the context in which I've made this difficult decision. Because while I appreciate the work that went into this legislation, I strongly believe now is not the time for another study. Now is the time for continued action that delivers results for the people we serve."

Moore's rationale—more likely crafted by his advisors—appears rooted in political optics. These far-left redistribution programs are so detached from capitalist principles and Western values that they risk being deeply unpopular, especially at a time when Maryland's finances are unraveling after decades of Democratic overspending and an economy overly dependent on government funding.

We suspect Moore's veto has also angered hardline Marxist Democrats in the state, who continue to push for socialist systems that redistribute wealth from the productive to the less productive. Under the current leadership of activist progressives, Maryland is on a death spiral—and it's not us saying this—but some leaders of some of the largest companies that operate in the Baltimore area have told us this.

With Democrats furious over Moore's veto of the reparations bill, the governor has now managed to infuriate both sides of the political aisle.

The Maryland Legislative Black Caucus was not pleased with Moore: 

"The state's first black governor chose to block this historic legislation that would have moved the state toward directly repairing the harm of enslavement."

Meanwhile, Maryland's financial outlook continues to deteriorate, with a $3 billion budget shortfall looming—likely paving the way for new taxes and triggering yet another wave of resident flight.

A large asset manager based in Baltimore told us earlier this year that they had advised clients to leave the state before the impending tax tsunami and to avoid purchasing Maryland municipal bonds due to the high risk of a credit downgrade.

And last week, Maryland's financial credit profile deteriorated, for the first time in decades—after Moody's downgraded the state's creditworthiness to Aa1 from AAA.

Since 1973, Maryland has maintained a top-tier credit rating, long seen as a reflection of fiscal discipline and responsible governance. However, far-left Democrats in Annapolis have chosen to run deficits to fund their progressive pet projects. This credit downgrade puts Maryland on the disastrous pathway toward becoming "Illinois 2.0."

“I think it’s disgraceful that we’re going to set up a reparations tax that might tax one race and give to another race all in the name of equity,” Matthew Morgan, a Republican delegate, said in April before voting against the bill.

Epoch Times noted, "Some lawmakers also took issue with the bill's broad language, which gave the proposed commission wide discretion in defining eligibility. They warned that, in theory, this could extend benefits to millions of people across the United States or even the world, costing billions of dollars."

Perhaps Moore should take some personal time—maybe at the upscale Caves Valley Golf Club, where sources say he is a member—and reflect on his state strategy while paying a round of golf. With crises piling up well before Trump's second term began, Moore has yet to demonstrate strong leadership Maryland needs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 18:00

Working Out Is Right Wing, And That's A Good Thing

Working Out Is Right Wing, And That's A Good Thing

Authored by Braeden Sorbo via American Greatness,

The media has a new villain: fitness...

According to recent articles, engaging in physical exercise is now linked to right-wing extremism. 

The narrative suggests that lifting weights, building discipline, and taking responsibility for your body are somehow dangerous acts. The Guardian claims that getting in shape could turn you into a “right-wing jerk,” while TIME runs pieces on “the white supremacist origins of exercise.” MSNBC warns that during the pandemic, workout trends ended up leading to “extreme” ideologies.

Seriously? Can we just stop with the nonsense?

I’ll tell you the real reason fitness is under attack. It breeds autonomy. And autonomous men are a threat to systems built on dependence and compliance.

Allow me to be controversial: physical strength and mental resilience are connected. According to a 2022 study published in Frontiers in Psychology, individuals who maintain regular physical activity demonstrate significantly higher psychological resilience and lower levels of anxiety and depression. When you commit to training your body, you’re also training your mind. You’re learning delayed gratification. You’re becoming comfortable with discomfort. You’re developing the backbone to say no—to weak ideas, to bad leadership, to mob thinking. In other words, weak people are agreeable, which is exactly what the government wants.

Testosterone plays a central role in this. Individuals with higher levels of testosterone flowing through their bodies are more likely to question authority and even think for themselves. A 2015 review in Biological Psychiatry explained that testosterone influences areas of the brain involved in motivation, emotional regulation, and social behavior, helping men navigate challenges with clarity and confidence.

But wait, there’s more! Another study in PNAS (2019) directly debunked the myth that testosterone reduces empathy, showing no evidence that it impairs cognitive empathy at all. Translation: Higher testosterone doesn’t make you a bad person. It makes you sharper, more focused, and more prepared to lead.

So why the war on fitness? Because fit, strong, disciplined men are harder to control.

They don’t break down from online shaming. They don’t beg bureaucracies for handouts. They know how to fight—metaphorically and literally—and that makes them dangerous to anyone trying to neuter society. As Jordan Peterson once said, “A harmless man is not a good man. A good man is a very, very dangerous man who has it under voluntary control.”

When you’re physically able to defend yourself, you become dangerous—in the best way. The world thrives on intimidation. That’s why so many people—especially young women—go along with destructive ideas like abortion or men in women’s sports. Deep down, they know something’s off. But fear keeps them quiet. Now take a man who’s strong, capable, and confident—traits often earned through training—and you have someone who can’t be bullied into submission. He doesn’t fold under pressure. He doesn’t need the world’s approval because he knows he can stand on his own.

Without the ability to defend yourself, you stop forming your own opinions. You become agreeable out of survival instincts. Weakness breeds obedience. What’s been labeled as toxic is actually essential. Without strength, there is no freedom. And without testosterone, there is no original thought—just borrowed scripts and empty slogans. The stronger the body, the more stable the mind. The more you train your limits, the less likely you are to break under pressure.

Socially, the story is the same. Parenthood and family responsibility—things once considered pillars of adulthood—are now “conservative red flags.” But the data says otherwise. A 2022 study published in the National Library of Medicine found that becoming a parent consistently predicts a shift toward more conservative values across different cultures. Why? Because raising a child forces you to care about things that extend beyond yourself.

So yes—men who lift, who lead, who protect—are more likely to value tradition, reject chaos, and push back against cultural decay, and that’s a good thing.

If being physically fit, masculine, and protective lands you on a government watchlist, maybe it’s the government that should be watched. If being strong, loyal, and self-reliant makes you “right-wing,” maybe being right-wing just means you haven’t lost your mind.

The gym isn’t just about vanity and lifting big things. It’s about whether you can defend your home when the need arises. It’s about your son learning to lead, not obey. It’s about your daughter growing up knowing someone strong has her back.

So if working out makes you a right-wing extremist, then we need more gyms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 17:40

NH's First Black Sheriff Jailed For Blowing Public Money On Travel With Women

NH's First Black Sheriff Jailed For Blowing Public Money On Travel With Women

A New Hampshire man who was heralded as the first black sheriff in the state's history was sentenced on Monday to 3 1/2 years in prison for squandering $19,000 of taxpayers' money on expensive getaways with multiple love interests -- and then lying to investigators about what he'd done. Tightly following the script we've seen so many times before, the disgraced "barrier-breaker" had previously said fellow Democrats who investigated his crimes were racists, and that his term in office was "rife with inequities." Despite repeatedly lying to the court and violating his bail conditions, his sentence was a fraction of what prosecutors sought. 

At 35 years old, Democrat Mark Brave was also the youngest-ever sheriff in New Hampshire history when he was elected in November 2020 -- following the summer of George Floyd and amid the Black Lives Matter mania that swept the country and helped usher under-qualified blacks into many top roles in and out of law enforcement. "It’s something I feel should have happened a long time ago, but I’m honored that I will be the person to pave the way,” said Brave at the time. (Alas, some barriers proved insurmountable that year, as a self-described transgender Satanist lost the Cheshire County New Hampshire sheriff race.) 

“His repeated lies, misuse of taxpayer funds, and abuse of office were not just criminal — they were a profound betrayal of the public trust and the oath he took to serve with integrity,” said New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella in a statement. That said, the sentence handed down by lily-white Judge Dan St. Hilaire was far lighter than the seven- to 14-year confinement that prosecutors had requested. Brave will technically be eligible for parole in 3 1/2 years, but the reality is that he'll walk even sooner if he participates in certain prison programs. He must pay $18,969 in restitution to Strafford County. 

Mark Brave was led out of the courtroom in handcuffs (WMUR)

The judge's leniency was at odds with his characterization of Brave's conduct. “The court has reviewed a record that has been unlike any other case that has come before it, mainly because of the continuation of the crimes that were being committed while the case was proceeding." The judge was apparently referring to Brave's: 

  • Lying to the grand jury
  • Lying on his application for public defense by failing to disclose $1.5 million received on the sale of his home
  • Violating his bail conditions by paying $52,000 to lease an apartment in Boston, when he was mandated to remain in New Hampshire; he also traveled to Florida and Puerto Rico
  • Lying to the judge, saying he was living in Dover with his ex-wife and that he was out of money
  • Failing to disclose his purchase of a 1968 Porsche, though he posted videos and photos of the vehicle to social media

Brave went wild with his county credit card, using it to fund multiple trips to destinations in Florida, Baltimore and Maryland for getaways with various women -- with at least some of the trysts happening while Brave was married. He attempted to conceal his misuse of funds by attributing the travel to fictional business meetings and training sessions. He also lied to investigators and a grand jury. Some of his lies were exposed by hotel lobby security cameras that captured him in the company of women on trips where he claimed to have been traveling alone.      

Brave created an entirely-new job in his department for longtime "friend" Freezenia Veras -- then jetted off to Florida with her using a county credit card (NH Journal)

Brave's misconduct started to unravel when an audit prompted an inquiry into JetBlue tickets purchased for a 2022 trip to Fort Lauderdale. Not content to merely steal public money, Brave opted for JetBlue's pricey "EvenMore" package, with the pair of tickets costing $1,615. Defending the expenditure, Brave said he needed the extra room because he's 6' 2" tall, and claimed he'd traveled with a "well-built, muscular" deputy. Investigators found, however, that he was traveling with female employee.

In another comical instance in which he was caught in a lie about a supposed business trip with a colleague, County Administrator Raymond Bower asked Brave why the hotel room only had a single king-bed. "There was a slight pause, and he said, “Oh, aw, the other person slept on the couch,” Bower said in an affidavit.  He also lied about spending money on business meals associated with meetings with the completely fictional "New England Sheriff's Association." 

He also installed a friend, Freezenia Veras, in a newly-created $80,000 job, and jetted off to Florida with her for a non-existent consultation with a law enforcement agency. In one of his many lies to a grand jury, Brave denied that he took another woman on a dinner cruise using his county credit card. When prosecutors whipped out a photo of Brave and the woman, he hilariously couldn't come up with her name: "Her name, her name is … um … let me see, I forget which one this is. I’ve been dating a lot of people,” he told the grand jury, according to NH Journal. 

Brave used public money for his trip to visit Kenisha Epps-Schmidt -- then talked her into giving him $2,300 for a used-car purchase he never made (NH Journal)

Brave also traveled to Maryland to spend time with Kenisha Epps-Schmidt, whom he'd met online. He tried papering over that embezzlement by attributing the trip to a Washington DC meeting with Rep. Chris Pappas that never happened. Brave proceeded to cheat Epps-Schmidt out of $2,300 she gave him to buy a car -- which he never did.   

Add it all up, and we have another low-IQ miscreant advanced to a position of authority because he had the right skin color. That's bad enough, but the black-catering madness carried over over to his sentencing, as a white Republican judge ensured a short stay in prison despite the black defendant's profound and repeated contempt for the criminal justice system all throughout the adjudication of his crime.   

As part of his plea deal, Brave is barred from seeking a law enforcement job during his post-confinement probation. That still leaves him in prime position to become the boyfriend of a leftist congresswoman or a progressive NGO executive and take a salary for providing "security consultant" services. Just axe former Rep. Cori Bush or Black Lives Matters Global Network Foundation co-founder Patrissee Cullors how it works.  

*  *  *

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Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat... Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 16:40

Boomers, Let's Face It: The Math Doesn't Work

Boomers, Let's Face It: The Math Doesn't Work

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

There are many consequential things we can't discuss factually because the topic upsets everyone. And since getting upset shuts down any direct discussion of difficult issues, these issues metastasize into problems that end up sinking the ship.

The Titanic has already struck the iceberg and is doomed, but since this upsets the passengers, we dance around the facts rather than take immediate action. Everything about the situation is upsetting, and so emotions dominate the zeitgeist: resentments, blame-game, accusations, the whole self-reinforcing dynamic leads to people shouting at others as they drown. The last word, indeed.

Federal deficit spending and the overweighting of entitlement spending on retirees is too upsetting to discuss factually, so we don't. But the math doesn't work, and so the ship will sink. This was obvious 20 years ago, when I posted this: Boomers, Prepare to Fall on Your Swords (June 2005), in which I suggested that well-off Boomers address the problem by gracefully making the necessary sacrifices rather than heap them on the younger generations.

It was even more obvious by 2013, when I posted this: Generation X: An Inconvenient Era (May 23, 2013), in which correspondent Eric A. explains how the math doesn't work.

Let's start with some necessary stipulations. When I suggest well-off Boomers accept the need to make sacrifices to save the ship from sinking, I suggest this as someone in this cohort.

I am a Boomer, drawing my Social Security benefit, which like my lifetime income, is close to the national median SSA benefit. I'm solidly in the middle of the pack. Being over the age of 65, I also have Medicare benefits. Like many others of my generation, I've lived frugally, saved money, worked hard, etc. Since I'm still working, I pay Social Security and Medicare taxes--15.3% of all earned income as I am self-employed.

Unlike others in my generation, I attribute only a modest percentage of my net worth to frugality and working hard, as the majority of whatever "wealth" I own is the direct result of the hyper-financialization credit-asset bubble that's been inflated since 2007.

Those who were able to buy assets such as houses and stocks decades ago saw their net worth rise to extraordinary heights in the bubble. Those who didn't or couldn't buy assets before the bubble did not see their net worth rise to extraordinary heights.

Let's go over how we got here. The current federal tax system and retiree benefits evolved in the 1930s to the mid-1960s. In the 1930s, retirement meant poverty for many workers who were unable to save a nestegg large enough to fund their no-earnings years. Social Security was enacted as a way of using the SSA taxes paid by current workers (1% of wages in those days) to fund a modest retirement income for retirees.

Social Security was always a pay as you go system. Whatever SSA tax revenues that weren't distributed piled up in a Trust Fund. This Trust Fund was eliminated in the mid-1960s, and excess SSA taxes went into the federal general fund. The current Trust Fund is a useful fiction. When SSA runs a deficit, the Treasury funds the deficit by selling Treasury bonds, just as it does with all other deficit spending.

Political realities demanded that the program be universal to attract widespread support. So millionaires collect Social Security and Medicare benefits, too. As SSA's financial foundations erode, a modest reform was enacted: above a modest income, 50% of SSA benefits are taxed as regular income.

Back when the program was enacted, there were around 10 workers for every retiree. The demographics and economy were different then. The economy was mostly domestic, and the bubble of the 1920s had popped. Financialization and globalization were at low ebb. Everyone assumed there would always be 10 workers for every retiree.

But people started living longer, the disabled were added to Social Security, and Medicare ballooned from a modest program to an open-ended spending juggernaut. In other words, the economy changed, demographics changed, but the system has not been changed to reflect these realities. SSA and Medicare taxes have increased dramatically, but these programs are still funded by payroll taxes paid by employees and employers.

Capital (assets, income from capital gains, speculation and investments) only pays a thin slice of Medicare via the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) on capital gains incomes above $200,000 for single taxpayers and above $250,000 for couples filing jointly.

What we're actually discussing isn't just generational; it's 1) the open-ended nature of the Medicare and Medicaid programs, 2) the impossibility of relying on two workers to pay all the benefits for each retiree as the number of retirees and beneficiaries exceeds 69 million people while the full-time workforce is 135 million, and 3) the extraordinary wealth divide in the U.S. where the majority of the wealth is held by the top few percent and the retiree generation (Boomers) for the reasons stated above.

The solutions are as obvious as plugging a hole in the ship's hull.

1) The tax burden has to be shifted from labor to capital via financial transaction taxes and ending the multi-trillion dollar exclusions on capital gains.

2) Social Security and Medicare benefits must be means tested; those collecting $10,000 a month in other pensions and investment income don't need Social Security benefits, which should be reserved for those with no other substantive source of steady income in their retirement years.

3) The open-ended entitlement programs must be limited in some fashion, and there is no way to do this that will not upset everyone. Hard choices--triage--must be made, as doing nothing is choosing to let the ship sink.

Let's feast on the facts of the matter. Those who need a calming agent, please do so now.

Here's household/non-profit net worth. The household sector has a net worth of $160 trillion. Notice that the total is far above the inflation rate. This is a credit-asset bubble on steroids.

Here is total debt. Borrow a bunch of money into existence and dump it into financial speculation, and voila, a debt-fueled asset bubble for the ages.

Here is total public debt. Is a parabolic rise really sustainable? No, the math doesn't work, especially as interest rates rise: the debt costs nothing to service at 0%, but the interest payments are huge at 4%.

Apologists love to attribute the debt to inflation or "growth," but that's misdirection. As a percentage of the nation's GDP (gross domestic product), the debt has risen 4-fold since president Reagan shepherded Social Security reforms in the early 1980s, and doubled as a percentage of GDP since 2007, before the Federal Reserve bailed out the status quo with hyper-financialization.

Here is a pie chart of federal spending. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are 44%. Toss in the other mandatory spending--a big chunk of which is interest paid on federal debt--and there's not much left to cut. The reality is there is no way to slow the runaway debt train without tackling open-ended retirement / healthcare programs.

The vast majority of projected growth in federal spending stems from these programs and the interest paid on funds borrowed to fund them. Unfortunately, these facts don't disappear because we don't like them.

Boomers hold the majority of net worth. So it follows that increasing taxes on capital will impact the Boomers who are wealthy--and younger folks who are wealthy, too, of course.

It's interesting how debt and the net worth of the top 1% have soared in tandem. Could it be that soaring debt-asset bubbles have benefited the top 1% far more than the debt bubble has benefited the bottom 50%? And if that's the case, then what does this suggest in terms of saving the ship from sinking?

The passengers on the Titanic arguing with each other can't stop the ship from sinking by "winning the argument." Silencing those willing to discuss the issues factually doesn't actually make the factual realities go away.

Those of us who run businesses / are self-employed don't have the luxury of not dealing with financial realities. Triage comes with every enterprise. We need a national discussion of triage that doesn't immediately degrade into denial or histrionics. And no, AI and stablecoins aren't going to make all this go away, any more than hoping the Central Bank of Mars will emerge to give us a 36 trillion-quatloo bailout.

Boomers--and Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z--let's face it: the math doesn't work. Triage means sacrifices will have to be made and distributed to those most able to afford them to spare those least able to afford them. The ship is not just taking on water; it's loaded with third rails and sacred cows that can't be touched, and so it's doomed to sink if we do nothing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 16:20

No Trial Data, No Vax: FDA Demands Gold Standard Testing For Any New COVID-19 Vaccines

No Trial Data, No Vax: FDA Demands Gold Standard Testing For Any New COVID-19 Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will not approve COVID-19 vaccines for many Americans absent trial data showing that the benefits outweigh the risks, top agency officials said on May 20.

Dr. Marty Makary, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, in Washington on May 5, 2025. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

“Moving forward, the FDA will adopt the following Covid-19 vaccination regulatory framework: On the basis of immunogenicity—proof that a vaccine can generate antibody titers in people—the FDA anticipates that it will be able to make favorable benefit–risk findings for adults over the age of 65 years and for all persons above the age of 6 months with one or more risk factors that put them at high risk for severe Covid-19 outcomes,” such as asthma or cancer, FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary and Dr. Vinay Prasad, head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, wrote in a New England Journal of Medicine article.

“For all healthy persons—those with no risk factors for severe Covid-19—between the ages of 6 months and 64 years, the FDA anticipates the need for randomized, controlled trial data evaluating clinical outcomes before Biologics License Applications can be granted.”

Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax, which have received licenses for their COVID-19 vaccines, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Several medical groups that have commented on FDA steps concerning COVID-19 vaccines, such as the American Academy of Family Physicians, did not return inquiries.

The FDA in 2024, in its most recent action concerning the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, approved updated versions for most Americans and extended emergency authorization for others, despite there being no trial data available for those formulations.

The regulatory agency on May 16 approved Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine for the first time. The approval was for adults aged 65 and up. The agency said that people aged 12 to 64 could receive a Novavax shot, but only if they have one of the conditions that puts them at higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes.

An earlier version of Novavax’s shot was tested in a randomized, controlled trial in 2021.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently recommends that people aged 6 months and older receive one of the latest COVID-19 vaccines, but just 13 percent of children and 23 percent of adults have followed that recommendation.

Makary and Prasad noted that a number of other countries, such as Australia and Germany, only recommend COVID-19 vaccines to certain populations.

“While all other high-income nations confine vaccine recommendations to older adults (typically those older than 65 years of age), or those at high risk for severe Covid-19, the United States has adopted a one-size-fits-all regulatory framework and has granted broad marketing authorization to all Americans over the age of 6 months,” they wrote on Tuesday. “The U.S. policy has sometimes been justified by arguing that the American people are not sophisticated enough to understand age- and risk-based recommendations. We reject this view.”

The officials said that while the quick development of COVID-19 vaccines was a scientific and medical achievement, the benefit of repeated dosing—some people have received at least six doses—is unclear.

The trials of the vaccines should measure prevention of symptomatic COVID-19, with secondary endpoints including severe COVID-19, hospitalization, and death, according to Makary and Prasad, who said that the trials should include participants who contracted COVID-19 within the past year, and they should follow participants for at least six months “to ensure that early booster gains persist.” The control group could receive a saline placebo, the officials said.

“Ultimately, these studies alone can provide reassurance that the American repeat-boosters in-perpetuity strategy is evidence-based,” they wrote.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently pledged to require placebo-controlled trials for new vaccines.

Makary and Prasad planned to talk about the policy update at 1 p.m. on Tuesday.

This is a developing story that will be updated.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 15:40

"Today I Will Show My Naked Body": Rep. Nancy Mace Combats Voyeurism During Oversight Hearing

"Today I Will Show My Naked Body": Rep. Nancy Mace Combats Voyeurism During Oversight Hearing

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) showed 'photos of her naked body' during a House Oversight meeting on Tuesday as the latest twist in her crusade against voyeurism.

Mace was engaged to Charleston-based software entrepreneur, Patrick Bryant. After purchasing two properties together, their relationship ended abruptly in 2021 after Mace reportedly discovered Bryant on a dating app.

Mace would later claim in a February speech on the House floor that in November 2023, she discovered a digital cache of over 10,000 videos and photos on Bryant’s phone, depicting rape, nonconsensual photos, and videos of women and underage girls, including herself. 

She recounted finding a video of herself naked, unaware she was being filmed, and alleged that Bryant recorded her without consent - and claims that Bryant and several other men conspired to commit sexual exploitation, voyeurism, and assault targeting multiple women, including minors, for over two decades.

She also says she found evidence of an app storing files from a hidden camera - with one alone containing 10,633 videos.

Rape, Drugging and Sex Trafficking

Mace alleged that in 2022, while at a property co-owned by Bryant and another accused man, she consumed two vodka sodas, blacked out, and was raped, though she could not confirm if Bryant was the perpetrator - but that Bryant and his associates drugged her and other women, suggesting the incidents might have been filmed or sold on the dark web.

She also accused the men of sex trafficking, alleging they paid each other to abuse women, which she described as a “premeditated, calculated exploitation.”

Bryant, a co-founder of the software firm Code/+/Trust and former chairman of the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce, categorically denied all allegations.

"I categorically deny these allegations. I take this matter seriously and will cooperate fully with any necessary legal processes to clear my name," he told the Associated Press, calling Mace's accusations "devastatingly harmful" and an attempt to further her political career.

'Today I will show my naked body'

Which brings us to today - when Mace posted on X; "Today I will show my naked body on one of the videos predator and rapist Patrick Bryant took of me and many other women. Mace made the statement one hour after she posted: "In my Oversight hearing today I’m going to expose predator and rapist Patrick Bryant for the monster he is. With evidence. Naked bodies. Legs spread apart. Upskirt photos. The kinds of things he would film and photograph women without their knowledge, permission or consent."

People waited with anticipation...

* * *

* * *

Needless to say, it was a huge letdown. 

Mace was ridiculed far and wide...

Click here for boob redemption...

*  *  *

Best sellers at ZH Store last week:

Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat... Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 15:20

US Shale Output Nearing Peak As Oil Prices Stagnate

US Shale Output Nearing Peak As Oil Prices Stagnate

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Low oil prices and economic uncertainty are causing U.S. oil production, particularly in shale basins, to plateau or decline earlier than anticipated.

  • Major oil companies acknowledge the accelerated peak in U.S. oil output, with the Permian Basin being the last major area still showing growth potential.

  • Forecasts for U.S. crude supply are being revised downward as the profitability of shale production is challenged by current oil prices.

The decline in oil prices and the prevailing uncertainty about the economy, trade, and supply chains are accelerating the peak in U.S. oil production despite President Donald Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ slogan.  

With the U.S. benchmark WTI crude prices at $60 per barrel, it’s mostly “hold, baby, hold” in the American shale patch, where output in the major basins except the Permian has already started to level off or drop. 

The U.S.-China 90-day tariff pause and the start of trade talks did little to erase the crash in oil prices from April, and even less to restore confidence or wipe out the high uncertainty regarding the economy and the cost of supply with unknown levels of tariffs. The shale patch has historically been immediately responsive to changing market conditions, but living in 90-day cycles of tariffs, no-tariffs, reduced tariffs, or surprise U.S. geopolitical moves could be too much for the oil industry, especially the smaller companies. 

The big ones, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Occidental, and ConocoPhillips, aren’t voicing publicly concerns about doing business and doing it as usual at $60 oil. But some of them have already said that the peak in U.S. oil production is being accelerated and could be sooner than previously expected. 

The peak, whenever it occurs, does not mean a steep decline afterwards—it would rather be a long plateau of leveling off of U.S. crude oil production in which the slowdown in shale would be partly offset by rising output from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, executives and analysts say.  

“As you know that most of the shale basins now have either plateaued or starting to decline, except for the Permian,” Vicki Hollub, President and CEO of Occidental Petroleum, said on the Q1 earnings call. 

“If companies continue to talk about dropping activity levels, I think the Permian could plateau sooner than we expected - and we had expected the Permian to continue growth through 2027,” Hollub added. 

Oxy had expected that U.S. production overall would peak between 2027 and 2030. 

“It's looking like with the current headwinds or at least volatility and uncertainty around pricing and the economy and recessions and all of that - it's looking like that peak could come sooner,” Hollub said, adding that the Permian would grow very little this year, if at all.  

Ryan Lance, the chief executive of ConocoPhillips, said on the company’s earnings call that at $60 oil, “the folks that don't have the kind of cost of supply sitting in their portfolio are going to find themselves cash-strapped and returns-strapped.”

“Obviously, the balance sheets are in pretty good shape across the industry, better than we were in the last downturn, but you'll see a lot of activity cut back,” Lance added. 

At current prices, ConocoPhillips doesn’t expect a lot of things to change for the company, although there would be changes if WTI sinks to $50 per barrel. However, “that's not our view today and doesn't represent where we think the market is going to be for the next few years,” Lance noted. 

The current mantra at ConocoPhillips is “don't whipsaw this thing too hard right now…so don't overreact, but don't put your head in the sand either.” 

Earlier this month, Diamondback Energy said onshore oil production in the U.S. has already peaked. 

“We currently estimate that the U.S. frac crew count is already down ~15% this year, with the Permian Basin crew count down ~20% from its January peak, and both are expected to decline further,” Diamondback said in a letter to investors. 

Liberty Energy, the fracking company founded by now-Energy Secretary Chris Wright, is also prepping for a slowdown in shale drilling.  

U.S. crude oil supply will rise more slowly than expected for the rest of 2025 and in 2026 and peak as early as this year, as WTI prices at $60 per barrel are testing the breakeven point of shale production, energy flows intelligence firm Kpler said last week. 

With the low oil prices, Kpler has now cut its U.S. crude supply forecast by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 170,000 bpd for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, “as weaker prices threaten to slow shale production.”  

Despite steady near-term activity, growth is slowing in the U.S. shale patch, and U.S. crude output is set to peak this year, Kpler noted. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 14:20

The Red Line: Democratic Officials Claim A Dangerous License For Illegality

The Red Line: Democratic Officials Claim A Dangerous License For Illegality

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Across the country, a new defense is being heard in state and federal courtrooms. From Democratic members of Congress to judges to city council members, officials claim that their official duties include obstructing the official functions of the federal government. 

It is a type of liberal license that excuses most any crime in the name of combating what Minn. Gov. Tim Walz called the “modern-day Gestapo” of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The latest claimant of this license is Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-NJ), who was charged with assaulting, resisting, and impeding law enforcement officers during a protest at Delaney Hall ICE detention facility in Newark, New Jersey. McIver is shown on video forcing her way into an ICE facility and striking and shoving agents in her path.

This was not a major incursion, but these state and federal officials joined a mob in briefly overwhelming security and breaching the fence barrier after a bus was allowed through the entrance. Federal officials were able to quickly force back the incursion.

McIver and House Democrats insisted that McIver’s forcing her way into the facility might be trespass and assault for other citizens, but she was merely exercising “legislative oversight.” Rep. Alexandria Ocacio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) declared “You lay a finger on someone – on Bonnie Watson Coleman or any of the representatives that were there – you lay a finger on them, we’re going to have a problem.”

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) even ominously warned the federal government that Democrats would bring down the house if it tried to charge McIver: “It’s a red line. They know better than to go down that road.”

Well, the red line was crossed in a big way after Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey Alina Habba charged McIver with a felony under Title 18, United States Code, Section 111(a)(1).

The ACLU called the charged “authoritarianism” and insisted that these state and federal politicians “have every right to exercise their legally authorized oversight responsibilities for expanded immigration detention in New Jersey.”

The problem with the oversight claim is that McIver’s status as a member of Congress does not allow her access into closed federal facilities. Congress can subpoena the Executive Branch or secure court orders for access. However, member do not have immunity from criminal laws in unilaterally forcing their way into any federal office or agency.

If that were the case, Rep. Alexandria Ocacio-Cortez would not have posted images of herself crying at the fence of an immigrant facility, she could have climbed over the fence in the name of oversight.

Conversely, Republicans in the Biden Administration could have simply pushed their way into the Justice Department to seek the files on the influence-peddling scandal.

Yet, the point of the claim is less of a real criminal defense and more of a political excuse.

It is the same claim being heard this week from Worcester City Councilor Etel Haxhiaj who was shown in a video shoving and obstructing ICE officers attempting to arrest a woman on immigration charges. Two other individuals (including a Democratic candidate for a school board) were arrested, but not Haxhiaj who claimed that she was merely protecting “a constituent.” After the melee, the city manager issued an order preventing city police from assisting in any way in the carrying out of such civil immigration enforcement efforts by the federal government.

Even judges are claiming the same license. 

In Wisconsin, Judge Hannah Dugan has been charged with obstructing a federal arrest of an illegal immigrant who appeared in her courtroom. Dugan heard about agents waiting outside in the hallway to arrest the man and went outside to confront the agents. She told them to speak to the Chief Judge and that they needed a different warrant.

The agents complied and the Chief Judge confirmed that they could conduct the arrest. In the interim, however, Dugan led the man out a non-public door and facilitated his escape (he was arrested after a chase down a public street).

Judge Duggan also claimed that she was carrying out her duties even though her hearing was over, the charges were not part of state matter, and the arrest was being carried out outside of her courtroom.

As Democratic leaders like Walz engage in rage rhetoric and paint Republicans (and federal law enforcement) as Nazis, political violence across the country. Many of the people burning Teslas and engaging in such crimes claim the same type of license that the ends justify the means. That includes affluent professionals who are now shoplifting from Whole Foods as a “protest” against Jeff Bezos meeting with Trump.

When the Administration sought to investigate those burning Teslas and dealerships, Rep. Dan Goldman (D., N.Y.) denounced it as a “political weaponization” of the legal system. The comments suggest that such arson is somehow a form of political expression on the left.

House Minority Leader Jeffries was correct that a “red line” was crossed but not the one that he was thinking of in threatening consequences for any charges. The red line is the one separating political expression and criminal conduct.

Border Czar stressed repeatedly to political leaders that they can protest and refuse to help but “you can‘t cross the line” into obstruction and interference with their operations.

If oversight means that members can force their way into any federal facilities, we would have 535 roaming inspectors general who could wander at will through the executive branch.

Rep. McIver would be better to claim a different type of oversight, in allowing her passion to briefly overwhelm her judgment in rushing into the facility.

In the end, however, McIver and Duggan may have a license of a different kind.

Both have an advantage of being charged in liberal districts where they would appear before sympathetic jurors.  They need to just convince a single jury to engage in “jury nullification,” to vote based on the cause, not the crime, in the case.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 13:40

US Should Never Have Gotten 'Entangled' In Ukraine 'Death Trap': Trump

US Should Never Have Gotten 'Entangled' In Ukraine 'Death Trap': Trump

President Trump following Monday's phone calls with Russia's Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky said that the United States should have never intervened in Ukraine in the first place.

He blasted his predecessor Joe Biden for sinking boundless billions in arms and aid into Kiev's coffers and yet it has only been a "death trap" and "real mess" which US decision-makers should have avoided altogether. "This is not my war. We got ourselves entangled in something we shouldn't have been involved in, and we would have been a lot better off. It's a real mess. It's a death trap," he said before reporters Monday afternoon.

Via Reuters

"I do have a certain line, but I don't want to say what that line is because I think it makes the negotiation even more difficult than it is," Trump asserted. When pressed, he refrained from divulging what precisely that red line is in the press briefing.

Trump also addressed the ever-present potential for the US to get drawn in deeper, which is why he said this should be Europe's mess and responsibility, and not the United States'.

"We don’t have boots on the ground, we wouldn’t have boots on the ground. But we do have a big stake. The financial amount that was put up is just crazy," he added.

"Again, this was a European situation. It should have remained a European situation. But we got involved – much more than Europe did – because the past administration felt very strongly that we should," he said. "We gave massive amounts, I think record-setting amounts, both weaponry and money."

Watch a key segment of the Trump presser:

Meanwhile, in the wake of the Trump-Putin call, which lasted over two hours, the mainstream media has been slamming the US president as essentially giving Putin a free hand. President Trump had said it went "very well" and that he seems "an imminent end to the war".

For example, below is The Washington Post's perspective in a fresh Tuesday report:

A phone call between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shut down an effort to pressure Russia into an immediate ceasefire and instead opened the way for continued fighting while lengthy negotiations take place — much to the consternation of Ukraine and its European allies Tuesday.

Trump’s abandonment of new sanctions on Russian indicated that he may be stepping away from involvement in the talks, something that his team has been flagging for weeks. Trump said Monday that the conditions for a ceasefire could only be agreed by the warring parties “because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.”

European leaders say they had originally been planning with U.S. officials to levy new sanctions on Russia if it did not declare an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.

And yet the reality is that the sanctions themselves would certainly escalate the conflict and proxy war further, providing even less of an opportunity for a diplomatic off-ramp, and Trump knows this.

Trump had written just after the call: "Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War.

Growing impatience on all sides, even among Trump supporters and conservatives, amid fears that the proxy war could just continue endlessly...

He wrote on Truth Social, "The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of. 

He then emphasized, "The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later."

* * * 

Fresh remarks from Rubio on Tuesday, defending the president's talks with Putin...

Rubio pushes back against claims about the administration's disengagement, says "I see some of those Foreign Ministers, including individuals from Ukraine, more than i see my own children."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 13:20

Coinbase Data Leak Could Put Users In Physical Danger; TechCrunch Founder

Coinbase Data Leak Could Put Users In Physical Danger; TechCrunch Founder

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

A recent data breach at crypto exchange Coinbase has raised concerns about user safety after hackers gained access to sensitive information, including home addresses.

Coinbase, the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, confirmed that less than 1% of its transacting monthly users were affected in an attack that may cost the exchange up to $400 million in reimbursement expenses, Cointelegraph reported on May 15.

However, the “human cost” of this data breach may be much higher for users, according to Michael Arrington, the founder of TechCrunch and Arrington Capital.

“Very disappointed in Coinbase right now. Using the cheapest option for customer service has its price,” Arrington said in a May 20 X post, adding:

“Something that has to be said though - this hack - which includes home addresses and account balances - will lead to people dying. It probably has already.”

Source: Michael Arrington

While no passwords, private keys or account funds were exposed, cybercriminals reportedly bribed overseas customer service contractors to access internal systems. This allowed them to steal personal data that could be used in social engineering scams or even physical extortion attempts.

With Bitcoin trading above $100,000, crypto wealth has become a growing target for criminals. Experts warn that leaked address data could expose high-net-worth individuals to real-world risks.

On May 16, Cointelegraph reported on six violent robberies that targeted cryptocurrency investors, aiming to extort digital assets via kidnapping or torture.

In a ruthless attack on May 4, the father of a French crypto entrepreneur was abducted in Paris, France. The kidnappers cut the victim’s finger and sent a video to his son, demanding 5 million euros in crypto.

The victim was held for two days before French police were able to find and rescue him. According to CNN, five people were arrested in connection with the kidnapping.

Crypto exchanges need “layered” cybersecurity

To prevent similar user data breaches, crypto exchanges need to adopt a “layered defense strategy,” according to Ronghui Gu, the co-founder of CertiK Web3 security firm.

“This can include privileged access management, zero trust architecture, multifactor authentication across internal systems, and continuous monitoring with behavioral analytics,” Gu told Cointelegraph, adding: 

“Preventive measures such as regular phishing simulations, tailored security training, and restricting third-party access to sensitive systems may help reduce these risks.”

However, crypto platforms will need to “rethink their security posture” as attackers “increasingly target human vulnerabilities rather than technical ones,” added Gu, warning of the rising threat of social engineering schemes.

Incidents and losses in 2024 by month. Source: CertiK

Social engineering schemes, such as phishing scams, were the most significant security threat of 2024, costing the industry over $1 billion across 296 incidents, according to CertiK.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 13:00

Comey Peddles Unbelievable Excuse For His '8647' Sea Shell Post...

Comey Peddles Unbelievable Excuse For His '8647' Sea Shell Post...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Disgraced former FBI Director James Comey is playing dumb and innocent after essentially calling for President Trump to be assassinated last week, claiming he had no idea his post would be so controversial.

After Comey posted an image of shells on a beach he arranged to read ‘8647’, meaning get rid of Trump, The Secret Service questioned him, but then let him go without any charges.

Now, in an interview with MSNBC he claims he’s just a silly old fella who wears baggy jeans and sweaters and had no idea what he was doing.

“I don’t know how we ended up here. Never occurred to me that it was any kind of controversial thing, but that’s the time we live in,” Comey told MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace.

It’s got nothing to do with the time we live in, shit posting an image threatening to kill the President when you’re a deep state lackey is always going to cause outrage.

Comey then claimed that he wasn’t the one who arranged the shells, and they were put there by some other TDS addled leftist.

“We were walking on the beach, we went to the beach to prepare for this week… and we were walking back towards the road and we saw in the sand someone had arranged shells with numbers. And Patrice, my wife, said, ‘why would someone put an address in the sand?’ and I said, ‘I don’t know’ and we stood over and I said, ‘I think it’s some kind of political message.'”

Hurling his own wife under a bus, Comey then added, “She said you know, when I was a server – she did a lot of work in restaurants – 86 meant to remove an item from the menu when you ran out of ingredients. And I said, ‘well to me, as a kid it always meant to leave a place, to ditch a place.’ And she said well that’s very clever you should take a picture of that and I did and posted it on my Instagram and thought nothing more of it until I heard through her that people were saying that it was a call for some sort of assassination which is crazy!”

Pfffffft, SURE.

He added, “I thought, what a clever way to express a political view.”

“The shells were the same color for each of the letters, the different colors for the letters. It took a lot of work. Somebody with artistic flair did that. And I have a hard time believing it was anybody with a a dark intention,” Comey asserted, adding “And it certainly was no dark intention on my part or my spouse’s part.”

Aw shucks grandpa.

Did the Secret Service really buy this BS?

The full thing is here:

Of course, Wallace didn’t bother asking him about this ‘coincidence’:

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 12:20

Schiff On Gold In A Multipolar Currency Regime

Schiff On Gold In A Multipolar Currency Regime

Via SchiffGold.com,

For now, the U.S. dollar still reigns supreme as the world’s reserve currency. But cracks in this hegemony are widening, and in the wake of de-dollarization, there’s a golden opportunity for the yellow metal to re-emerge as a neutral global reserve asset in a multipolar currency regime. 

As nations like China, India, and Russia challenge the dollar’s monopoly, the rise of a multi-currency world underscores why physical gold is not just a hedge, but a strategic necessity.

The dollar’s dominance, cemented by the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, has rested on its role as the primary medium for international trade, oil pricing, and reserve holdings. Yet, its foundation is eroding. The U.S. national debt exceeds $33 trillion, with interest payments projected to hit $1 trillion annually next year. 

Decades of quantitative easing have bloated the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, diluting the dollar’s purchasing power. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions—sanctions on Russia, trade disputes with China—have further fed global de-dollarization. Now we have high inflation, interest rates that are still way too low, and a ballooning debt. In fact, almost half of new debt in 2024 came from interest payments on the debt itself. In that scenario, it would be impossible for other countries not to start considering de-dollarization more seriously.

That’s exactly what’s happening. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows a steady decline in the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves. Central banks keep stockpiling gold at a historic pace, especially in Poland and BRICS-aligned countries. As the rest of the world continues to lose trust in the dollar, they’ll bet on gold as a neutral, non-politicized asset.

Look at Treasurys: they’ve been swinging wildly since Trump’s trade wars began and are now sitting over 4.5%.  The dollar’s exorbitant privilege has always been unsustainable, and with the world increasingly realizing that we can’t fix our fiscal mess, a multipolar currency regime is an unfolding reality. 

As Peter Schiff recently said on X:

A multipolar currency regime envisions a world where no single national currency dominates. China is increasingly pushing for different ways to exchange yuan instead of dollars. Russia’s push for gold-backed trade with other BRICS nations is also accelerating the shift. The 2024 BRICS summit floated proposals for a gold-linked trade unit, a direct challenge to the petrodollar.

After years of exporting our inflation, taking advantage of cheap manufacturing elsewhere, and using the threat of war to enforce petrodollar supremacy, Trump claims we’re being “ripped off.” In reality, his policies are smashing through everything that has allowed America to enjoy our standard of living to begin with. Those are the same factors that have allowed the dollar to survive for so long.

As nations diversify away from dollar-denominated assets, gold’s share in global reserves is climbing. 

With the government’s culture of blatantly unsustainable borrowing trickling down to consumers, America’s unpayable debt cannot simply go on forever. Now other countries are not only realizing it, but acting on it. Though the story of unipolar dollar dominance was always bound to come to an end, in this case, the finale will be a spectacular collapse that upends the way of life Americans have become so accustomed to. 

2008 was nothing, and neither was the Great Depression, compared to the end of the dollar’s reign. The longer it gets put off, the worse it will be in the end. However, for better or worse, it may be coming soon. As Peter recently said on Metals and Miners:

“…stagflation, a combination of a weak economy and rising interest rates, is the one scenario that the Fed never stress tested any of the banks for…They did not run a stress test where you have a recession with high unemployment, but inflation and interest rates go up, not down.”

The IMF reports that gold now accounts for significantly more of total reserves than it did a decade ago. Other countries know that gold is the ultimate safe haven, not US Treasurys. As the multipolar world takes shape, the dollar’s decline could trigger volatility in equities, bonds, and real estate—assets that are tethered to the stability of the dollar.

Gold thrives in uncertainty. Its price has skyrocketed this year, outpacing inflation and most asset classes. However, its true value lies not in short-term gains, but in its role as a wealth preserver when currencies like the US dollar collapse under the weight of inflationary mismanagement and central planning hubris. 

As demand for dollars goes down it will devalue U.S. assets, particularly Treasuries, which foreign entities hold to the tune of trillions. As the dollar’s shadow fades, gold reclaims its role as the world’s ultimate store of value—unchained, enduring, and essential.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 11:40

Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin's Dismantling Of US Institute Of Peace

Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin's Dismantling Of US Institute Of Peace

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell on May 19 blocked President Donald Trump’s administration from restructuring the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), replacing its leadership, and assuming control of its office building.

“These unilateral actions were taken without asking Congress to cease or reprogram appropriations or by recommending that Congress enact a new law to dissolve or reduce the institute or transfer its tasks to another entity,” Howell stated in her written opinion.

USIP was established by Congress in 1984 as an “independent nonprofit corporation,” which receives federal and private funding to promote peace through education and diplomacy.

The matter began with a Feb. 19 Trump executive order declaring USIP “unnecessary,” and calling for the organization’s activities to “be eliminated to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law.”

Its board of directors is made up of 13 members: Ten are acting members, appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. The other three are “ex officio” members, meaning they hold their seats because of their placement in the federal government.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Vice Admiral Peter A. Garvin, president of the National Defense University, hold these “ex officio” seats.

On March 14, Trent Morse of the Presidential Personnel Office fired USIP’s acting board members by email.

That same day, its president, George Moose, was fired by the ex officio members and replaced with Kenneth Jackson, an official from the U.S. Agency for International Development.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) took control of USIP’s headquarters on March 17.

On March 18, in the middle of this shake-up, USIP and several of its fired board members sued the government, naming Trump, Jackson, Hegseth, and Rubio as co-defendants.

Howell initially declined to block the administration’s moves on March 19, while the case was pending before the court, because she felt the plaintiffs’ claims would not succeed on the merits.

The board members and USIP president Moose protested against the firings and resisted the takeover of its Washington headquarters, but were unsuccessful.

The administration eventually fired all but a handful of USIP’s staff, cancelled all of its programs.

It transferred control of USIP’s headquarters to the General Services Administration and leased its office space to the Department of Labor.

In her ruling, Howell sought to define USIP’s role in the federal government.

The plaintiffs had argued that USIP is a fully independent entity, and not part of the government, or at the very least, not part of the executive branch.

Its statutes say the board members can only be removed by the president: “In consultation with the board, for conviction of a felony, malfeasance in office, persistent neglect of duties, or inability to discharge duties.”

A board member may also be removed by a vote of eight other board members, or with a majority vote from members of the House Committees on Foreign Affairs and Education and Labor, and the Senate Committees on Foreign Relations and Labor and Human Resources.

The Trump administration had argued that it was part of the executive branch, since it performed diplomatic functions.

Since it is part of the executive branch, federal attorney Brian Hudak argued, Trump was entitled to fire its board despite the statutory limitations.

Judge Howell took a middle-of-the-road view and said that USIP is part of the federal government, but not strictly part of the executive branch.

“Instead, USIP supports both the executive and legislative branches as an independent think tank that carries out its own international peace research, education and training, and information services,” she stated.

“Defendants’ subsequent actions that flowed from the improper removal of USIP’s leadership in March 2025 are thus also unlawful,” including the termination of its grant programs and the firing of its staff.

Howell ordered the fired board members and president Moose to be reinstated and may not be fired, except in accordance with USIP’s statutes.

She also declared the transfer of USIP’s headquarters illegal and has blocked the government from “trespassing” on those headquarters or maintaining control of its computer systems.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 10:20

Biden's Was The First Fully Deep-State Presidency

Biden's Was The First Fully Deep-State Presidency

Authored by Jarrett Stepman via The Daily Signal,

Biden’s Presidency Is a Scandal of Historic Proportions

The “presidency” of Joe Biden is one of the greatest scandals in American history. The legacy media is only now covering the mental incapacity of a president who apparently left the entire ship of state to the unaccountable bureaucracy.

On Friday, Axios released Friday night news dump audio of Biden’s 2023 interview with special counsel Robert Hur.

If you heard the tape and haven’t been in a coma for the past four years, then nothing here is truly surprising. The former president sounded senile and evasive when answering questions about his handling of top secret documents.

Some of my colleagues went through the full tapes and found that Biden “forgot the names of President Barack Obama’s former secretary of defense and comedian Jay Leno; referred to Africa as a country, not a continent; and was unaware he had in his possession a notebook with war advice in it for Obama during his interview with special counsel Robert Hur and investigators in October 2023.”

Biden certainly did not sound like someone who could be trusted to make large-scale national decisions or even small-scale personal ones.

This is entirely unsurprising unless you are a left-leaning corporate media journalist on the political beat. 

If you are, then I’m sure that the reports coming out about Biden in office are jaw-dropping, gob-smacking revelations to you.

The media elite are shocked, shocked to discover that Biden may have been unfit for office.

The release of these tapes was followed by a Sunday afternoon reveal that Biden has been diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer.

The cancer diagnosis is certainly a terrible thing. But the idea that this should end the story about what happened the last four years is a farce. It couldn’t be clearer now that due to mental and physical ailments, Biden was a diminished man from the moment he assumed the president’s office.

Despite some of the aforementioned elite journalists calling for a lid to be put on conversations about Biden’s presidency due to his health, the reality is the cancer diagnosis only raises more unsettling questions. Is this really a new diagnosis? Did Biden’s doctors really somehow miss the signs of treatable cancer?

And that makes this situation entirely unprecedented.

Yes, President Woodrow Wilson was at one point incapacitated during his final term in office, but that was at the tail end of his presidency. Wilson suffered a series of strokes after his highly energetic campaign to convince Americans to join the League of Nations. His wife and even some members of the media tried to cover it up, but ultimately the Democratic Party pulled the plug on his extremely brief flirtation with running for a third term.

There was no widespread attempt to fool the American people and ensure another term for an “almost catatonic” president, as one witness at George Clooney’s June fundraiser for Biden described the candidate.

This situation with Biden was much, much worse, the cover-up far more extensive, and the consequences were far more potentially dire in the age of instant communication and weapons capable of quickly destroying all of human civilization.

How shall we think of those years in which multiple crises developed around the globe, Americans were mass deprived of employment due to government-forced vaccinations, states were browbeaten to allow children to get life-altering hormones, and an ultimately victorious presidential candidate was nearly jailed?

I’ve tried to think of some apt historical comparisons.

President John Tyler was known to some of his more cantankerous critics as “his accidency,” due to being the first vice president to assume the president’s office after the death of the commander in chief. The attitude was that nobody actually elected him to become president, and in the early days of the republic the Constitution was a bit murky about whether he could just assume office or a new election must be held.

Regardless of the nickname, Tyler became an aggressive, active commander in chief—somewhat to the chagrin of many in his party.

But Biden was in some way the mirror opposite. Despite being elected in a highly contested election, he seems to have never really assumed his responsibilities. Biden’s lethargy was only matched by his lack of transparency.

The better word for Biden would be “his irrelevancy.”

While the 46th president’s handlers, most likely at the behest of former President Barack Obama, led him around in an extended real-world version of “Weekend at Bernie’s,” the federal apparatus operated on its own.

This was rule by “experts,” or really rule by the managerial class that re-created the old spoils system but made it totally unaccountable to the American people.

Decisions were carried out by vast, interlocking agencies at the behest of their Democratic Party allies whom they serve.

This was the first fully deep-state presidency.

Biden was awarded by the Democratic Party with the nominal career-capping title as president, but the functions and even the decisions demanded of his office were clearly distributed to his subordinates and the federal leviathan.

The result was a complete disaster.

Americans rightly lost faith in their leaders and the elite institutions attached to this corrupted apparatus. U.S. foreign policy was at best strategically adrift. Our enemies around the globe went on the march. The people feared the government more than the government feared them.

The upshot of these calamities is that we were delivered a national wake-up call at a time of crisis. A political counterrevolution is taking place that may have never happened had its depth not been revealed at least in part by the media’s cover-up of Biden’s obvious infirmity.  

But even though the first 100-plus days of President Donald Trump couldn’t be more different than the four years of his predecessor, we can’t forget how bad things got, how much the legacy media covered for a senile president’s obvious incapacity, and how deeply threatening the permanent bureaucratic state is to American liberty.

*  *  *

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Click hat... add to cart... check out... receive awesome hat... Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 09:40

Renewable Stocks Jump After Trump Allows New York Offshore Project Resumption

Renewable Stocks Jump After Trump Allows New York Offshore Project Resumption

Shares of European renewable energy companies surged Tuesday after New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced that, following weeks of negotiations with President Trump and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the month-long stop-work order on the $5 billion Empire Wind project off the state's coast has been lifted. Reuters reported that the move could pave the way for the Trump administration to revisit plans for expanding natural gas pipelines in New York.

"After countless conversations with Equinor and White House officials, bringing labor and business to the table to emphasize the importance of this project, I'm pleased that President Trump and Secretary Burgum have agreed to lift the stop work order and allow this project to move forward," Democratic Gov. Hochul wrote in a statement. 

She continued, "Now, Equinor will resume the construction of this fully permitted project that had already received the necessary federal approvals. I also reaffirmed that New York will work with the Administration and private entities on new energy projects that meet the legal requirements under New York law. To ensure reliability and affordability for consumers, we will be working earnestly to deliver on these objectives." 

News of Equinor's Empire Wind project's resumption alleviated uncertainties for investors: Denmark's Orsted AS jumped 16%, the most in three years, and Vestas Wind Systems increased 6.5% in Copenhagen. Equinor rose 1.5%. 

Jefferies analyst Ahmed Farman said the Empire Wind project is a positive read-across for Orsted. He said the stop-work order had "significantly raised market concerns" for Orsted's Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind projects. The analyst reiterated a "Hold" rating on the stock.

The resumption "shows it is possible and useful to discuss questions with the Trump administration," Norway's Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg told Bloomberg via a telephone interview. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Robert Pulleyn said today's news will relieve Orsted shares "on the increased likelihood these projects are delivered."

Pulleyn said the lack of a "clear rationale" for the halt order on Equinor's Empire Wind project had heightened investor uncertainty surrounding Orsted's two U.S. projects currently under construction. He reiterated an Equal-weight rating on Orsted. 

As measured by the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), the broader clean tech sector has retraced to levels last seen before the Covid pandemic. The space was propped up with cheap money from the Federal Reserve and the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act. 

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is bringing back common-sense energy policies that prioritize reliable fossil fuel power generation, such as natural gas and coal. The world learned that solar and wind create instabilities, especially several weeks ago when Spain achieved a net-zero death.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 09:20

Ayatollah Khamenei Slams 'Outrageous' US 'Red Line' Demand Of Iran In Nuclear Talks 

Ayatollah Khamenei Slams 'Outrageous' US 'Red Line' Demand Of Iran In Nuclear Talks 

After several days of back-and-forth public criticisms and US declarations of a "red line" - Iran's Supreme Leader has finally weighed in definitively on where things stand from Tehran's perspective.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the latest US demands that Iranian enrichment be taken down to zero "excessive and outrageous," according to state media. He further expressed doubts that current nuclear talks with the Trump administration will actually lead anywhere.

"I don't think nuclear talks with the U.S. will bring results. I don't know what will happen," Khamenei said. He further called on Washington to cease making over-the-top demands in nuclear talks. Tehran officials have of late also called the Trump administration's stance "contradictory" - after President Trump attempted overtures, sprinkled with direct threats, in his Iran-related rhetoric while in the Gulf last week.

"The American side in these indirect talks should avoid nonsensical remarks," the country's top religious cleric and highest authority continued. "Saying they will not allow Iran to enrich is a big mistake. No-one waits for their permission."

The Ayatollah made the remarks while speaking at a memorial honoring late President Ebrahim Raisi, who one year ago died when his helicopter crashed in northern mountains:

He praised Raisi, a fellow hardline cleric, for refusing direct talks with the US while in office.

"He clearly said 'no' without ambiguity," Khamanei noted, adding that Raisi did not let enemies "drag Iran to the negotiating table through threats or tricks".

Khamenei said nuclear talks under Raisi's predecessor, the moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani, had failed to achieve results, and that he did not think there would be any breakthrough under his successor, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is a reformist.

President Trump had last week said the Iranians "sort of" agreed to the terms of a deal following four rounds of talks mediated by Oman, going back to mid-April.

Also last week, a top Iranian nuclear official said it was possible that Iran could given up enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. But this was clearly premature, and the Ayatollah is now seeking to clarify the Islamic Republic's stance.

Trump envpy Steve Witkoff on the Sunday news shows made clear that the issue of abandoning enrichment is a "red line" from the US administration. He described to ABC the "red line" for Iran is no enrichment, not even one percent. And yet the past couple decades have seen Iran time and again view this as a non-starter.

"Everything begins… with a deal that does not include enrichment… because enrichment enables weaponization, and we will not allow a bomb to get here," he added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 08:45

Futures Slide After Monday's Historic Retail-Driven Rebound

Futures Slide After Monday's Historic Retail-Driven Rebound

US equity futures are weaker with Tech underperforming, threatening a six-day winning streak that propelled the S&P 500 to the brink of a bull market. Then again, Monday started off even worse and then we saw the biggest burst of retail buying on record resulting in one of the biggest intraday reversals in recent history (according to JPM, more here), so brace for more unexpected moves. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futs drop 0.3% with Mag7 stocks mixed amid weakness in semis into today’s Google I/O developer conference; healthcare is leading Defensives over Cyclicals. The yield curve is twisting steeper with the 10Y yield flat and USD weakening. Commodities are mixed with crude down, natgas up, base metals down, precious up, and Ags generally higher. Macro data is light, with just the Philly non-mfg PMI on deck ahead of Thursday’s Flash PMIs & Claims prints, but we have another round of Fed speakers where the message continues to be patience.

In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Tesla +1.4%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia -0.2%, Microsoft -0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta Platforms -0.3%). Home Depot gained 2.2% after maintaining its guidance for the fiscal year as US sales ticked up, a sign that consumer spending has held up despite economic turbulence. Vipshop’s US-listed shares (VIPS) decline 8% after the China-based online marketplace reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook. here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Air Lease (AL) rises 1.2% as Citi upgrades to buy, saying a possible capital allocation creates a “tactical opportunity.”
  • ASP Isotopes (ASPI) jumps 15% after signing financing and supply agreements with TerraPower to support the construction of a new uranium enrichment facility.
  • ImmunityBio (IBRX) rises 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the drug developer to overweight, saying the launch of the firm’s newly approved bladder cancer drug Anktiva is off to a strong start.
  • Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) rises 6% as the customer relationship management software company will join the S&P Midcap 400 Index before trading opens May 22.
  • Pony AI ADRs (PONY) jump 5% after the Chinese autonomous-driving company reported revenue for the first quarter of $14 million vs $12.5 million year-over-year.
  • Trip.com (TCOM) US-listed shares fall 4% after the online travel agency reported its first-quarter results.
  • Yalla (YALA) falls 8% after the social-network operator saw a drop in the number of paying users on its platform.

Ironically, as everyone was expecting a Monday metldown in US treasuries - and got just the opposite - the big move was in Japan, where bonds cratered and long-end yields soared to a record high after a near-failed government bond auction saw the weakest bid-to-cover demand since 2012 and the biggest tail since 1987, pointing screaming to increasing concerns about investor support as the Bank of Japan dials back its huge debt holdings.

As markets continue to meltup, investors are looking for clarity on market direction, with strategists in a Bloomberg poll now far more optimistic about European stocks than the US market. Jamie Dimon, meanwhile, has been warning about risks from inflation and credit spreads to geopolitics. “The market came down 10%, it’s back up 10%; I think that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

Meanwhile, the threat of US tariffs showed up in Chinese shipments of smartphones, which fell 72% in April, according to China’s customs data.

Tech has been the main driver of the recent market bounce and will remain in focus into next week’s key earnings release from Nvidia. Google is holding its I/O developer conference, with the keynote speech at 4:30 pm ET. Broader deployment of AI mode on Google search will be a big focus, Bloomberg Intelligence said. 

A slate of Fed speakers will be closely watched today for clues on the outlook for the US economy and any commentary on the Moody’s downgrade. Two Fed officials suggested on Monday that policymakers may not be ready to lower rates before September as they confront a murky economic outlook. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 climbs 0.4%, on pace for a fourth session of gains, led by utilities, telecoms and health care. Germany’s DAX topped 24,000 for the first time. Among individual stocks, Orange advances after Bloomberg reported that Patrick Drahi is weighing a SFR sale. Wall Street strategists are betting European stocks will enjoy their best performance relative to the US in at least two decades as the region’s economic outlook improves. While US stocks have rallied in recent weeks, two Federal Officials warned on Monday that they would adopt a wait-and-see approach before lowering interest rates. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Orange shares rise as much as 3.1% after Bloomberg reported that billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice France is considering the sale of a controlling stake in SFR, raising hopes of further industry consolidations in a competitive market.
  • Smiths Group gains as much as 4.4%, to highest since Jan. 31, after the UK engineering firm says full-year organic revenue growth is expected to be toward the top end of its guided range.
  • SoftwareOne shares gain as much as 4.5% after Kepler Cheuvreux raised the recommendation on the stock to buy from hold saying cost-cutting is gaining traction and 1Q should show early margin recovery.
  • Greggs shares rise as much as 8.8% to a three-month high after the UK food-on-the-go retailer gave a trading update in which it said it is seeing an improved performance, and kept its expectations for the year unchanged.
  • Diploma shares surge as much as 18%, hitting a record high, as analysts hail the building components supplier’s positive first-half performance, mainly driven by its Controls unit.
  • SSP shares rise as much as 5.3%, to the highest in three months, after the operator of food and beverage outlets at travel locations reiterated its full-year outlook, in spite of softer current trading in North America amid weaker travel demand.
  • Schaeffler shares rise as much as 7.6% after the German auto parts firm was double-upgraded to buy at Bank of America, which sees the firm’s adjusted Ebit doubling by 2028.
  • Orsted shares rose as much as 15% the Trump administration lifted an order that halted construction on Equinor’s $5 billion project off the coast of New York.
  • Fincantieri shares rise as much as 9.7% a record high, after it unveiled targets for a newly created Underwater Armament Systems unit.
  • UBS shares declined as much as 3.5%, the most since April 9, after Bloomberg News reported the lender is likely to face defeat in its effort to water down the Swiss government’s law that could force it to maintain up to $25 billion in extra capital.
  • Salmar falls as much as 5.6%, the most in almost a month, after the Norwegian seafood and salmon company reported its latest earnings, which DNB Carnegie describes as a “big miss.”
  • Kingfisher falls as much as 4.8% as Barclays cuts its recommendation on the UK construction and DIY supplier to underweight from equalweight. A 25% rally this year is “overly generous,” the bank says.

Asian stocks gained for the first time in four sessions, with Hong Kong-listed shares leading the advance thanks to a slew of positive corporate developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, the most in nearly a week, with Alibaba and Sony among key gainers. Xiaomi shares jumped after the CEO said the company is starting mass production of a new chip, while Chinese healthcare stocks surged after biotech company 3SBio entered into a pact with Pfizer. Shares in India slipped.  Momentum is returning to Asian stocks with tensions easing on the trade front while global growth seems intact. Chinese battery giant CATL gained in its debut in Hong Kong after wrapping up the world’s largest initial public offering this year, showing the appetite for such themes in the region.

The RBA delivered a 25bp cut at their May meeting, as widely expected, but with clear dovish elements to the meeting as a whole. The statement was materially more positive on the progress made on the inflation mandate, with inflation expected to remain around the RBA’s 2-3% target band, and with a removal of the previous language on being determined to “sustainably return inflation to target”. The updated macro projections were also materially softer, in-line with our economists’ expectations, with lower profiles for growth and inflation, and a higher path for the unemployment rate. Perhaps the most notable dovish news though was Governor Bullock noting that the Board discussed a 50bp cut at today’s meeting, suggesting a clearer break from their previously more cautious thinking. Goldman economists revised their RBA call to include an additional cut at the November meeting, in addition to the cuts they continue to expect at the July and August meetings.

In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.1%. The Aussie lags G-10 peers, down 0.6% versus the greenback after RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the board considered a 50bps rate cut before opting for 25.  The Dollar continues to underperform, but within tight ranges this morning. EUR (+10bps) price action remains constructive after the trading desk’s flow bias being skewed towards selling yesterday. Our Spot Traders (KBS) note that there was a lack of interest from HFs to chase yesterday - partly an element of some still tending to prior wounds but we seem to have hit the limit of false starts without a clear identifiable catalyst that HFs are willing to chase. USDJPY is trading -25bps lower after a choppy price action overnight. Despite continued spot moves lower in USDJPY and increased speculation that there may be some kind of “currency deal” as part of trade negotiations, our traders noted that downside USDJPY gamma has repriced lower (1m ATM -0.25v vs the roll) with the market struggling to digest front end vol supply the last 48hrs. USDCNH is trading +10bps higher after jumping on headlines that cut benchmark lending rates for the first time since October. The outlier overnight was AUD (-70bps), amid the dovish 25bps cut from the RBA.

In rates, treasuries are mixed as US session gets under way with the yield curve steeper. Front-end yields are 1bp-2bp lower on the day while 30-year is higher by around 3bp near 4.93%. Treasury curve pivots around little-changed 7-year sector, with 10-year near 4.46%, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.8bp and 2.5bp. Bunds and gilts outperform following softer-than-expected German PPI data and pricing of a £4 billion 2056 syndicated gilt issue. Gilts lead a rally in European bonds, with UK 10-year yields down 3bps to 4.63%. Traders shrugged off BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s warning that interest rates may be coming down too quickly. US economic data calendar includes only a regional indicator, however several Fed speakers are slated. Treasury auctions ahead this week include $16 billion 20-year new issue Wednesday and $18 billion 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday

In commodities, Oil pares earlier gains seen after Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei voiced skepticism over talks with the US. WTI drops 0.2% to near $62.50.  Spot gold rises $8 to around $3,238/oz.

The US economic data calendar includes May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic, Barkin (9am), Collins (9:30am), Musalem (1pm), Kugler (5pm), Hammack and Daly (7pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.2%,
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%, 
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%, 
  • DAX +0.2%, 
  • CAC 40 little changed
  • 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.45%
  • VIX +0.3 points at 18.44
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1223.55, 
  • euro +0.2% at $1.1262
  • WTI crude -0.1% at $62.6/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Freedom caucus chair Harris said the votes are not there for the Trump bill and predicts a deal on the tax bill will be delayed until June.
  • Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine  will “immediately” begin negotiations on preparations for peace talks, but signaled that he was leaving Moscow and Kyiv to find a deal without the US as a broker. FT
  • Crypto scored a big win after a group of Democrats dropped their opposition to stablecoin legislation. The bill may pass this week. BBG
  • Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said negotiations with the US over his country’s nuclear program are unlikely to result in a deal and called the Trump administration’s latest demands on Iran “outrageous.”
  • China cut benchmark lending rates for the first time since October on Tuesday, while major state banks lowered deposit rates as authorities work to ease monetary policy to help buffer the economy from the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war. RTRS
  • China’s smartphone exports to the US fell 72% last month, outpacing an overall 21% drop in shipments. At the same time, the value of phone component exports to India roughly quadrupled. BBG
  • The Bank of Japan will sound out market participants this week to gauge their views on how aggressively it should proceed with quantitative tightening as yields surge nearly a year after it began scaling back its huge bond purchases. BBG
  • Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday there was no change to Tokyo's stance of demanding an elimination of U.S. tariffs in bilateral trade negotiations.
  • Tokyo will not rush into clinching a trade deal if doing so risked hurting the country's interests, he said. RTRS
  • India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July, when President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in, according to officials in New Delhi familiar with the matter. BBG
  • Donald Trump plans to go to the Capitol today to push House Republicans to back his tax-cut bill. Speaker Mike Johnson’s meeting with holdout GOP members from high-tax states failed to produce a deal on SALT. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

  • Japan is reportedly mulls accepting US tariff reduction, not exemption, according to Kyodo. The Japanese government is reportedly considering the option of accepting a reduction in the rate of additional tariffs and reciprocal tariffs on automobiles and other items. Due to the US, according to sources, refusing to eliminate tariffs in prior negotiations and is said to have "indicated its intention to exclude additional tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminium, which are important to Japan, from the talks".
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent will travel to Canada to participate in the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, while he will focus on the need to address global economic imbalances and non-market practices.
  • Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said Japan and the US conducted working-level talks on bilateral trade on Monday, while he added there was no change to Japan's stance of demanding the elimination of US tariffs. It was also reported that the US and Japan could hold talks as soon as this Friday although US Treasury Secretary Bessent is not expected to attend, according to Kyodo.
  • Taiwan's President Lai said tariff talks with the US are going smoothly, while he added that Taiwan is to initiate a national wealth fund and is to broaden economic connections with nations other than the US.
  • India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were marginally higher as the region took impetus from the rebound stateside where the major indices gradually recouped the losses triggered by the US rating downgrade, and both the S&P 500 and the Dow notched six-day win streaks. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in tech and financials, while the attention was on the RBA which delivered a  widely expected rate cut. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open in tandem with a surge in USD/JPY but then gave back the majority of the spoils amid currency fluctuations and with little in the way of fresh catalysts for Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat after China's largest banks cut deposit rates and slashed the benchmark Loan Prime Rates by 10bps as guided by PBoC Governor Pan, while sentiment was also underpinned by a jump in CATL shares on its Hong Kong debut.

Top Asian News

  • China's state planner said they will make greater efforts to attract and utilise foreign capital, while China is drafting loan management rules for renewal projects and most policies will be implemented before end of June.
  • BoJ releases briefing material used at a meeting with bond market participants: notes some members said JGB market functionality is improving as a trend due to the BoJ taper. Some look for an eventual end to bond buying, some are after bigger cuts in the next plan. Some seek substantial cuts in one go. Deteriorating demand-supply for super-long JGBs is not something the BoJ can fix.

RBA

  • RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, while it stated that inflation continues to moderate and that the outlook remains uncertain. RBA affirmed that maintaining low and stable inflation is the priority and the board judged that the risks to inflation have become more balanced, as well as assessed that this move on rates will make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive. Furthermore, the RBA stated that headline inflation is likely to rise over the coming year to around the top of the band as temporary factors unwind and the remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply. RBA also released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which noted that the escalation of global trade conflict a key downside risk to economy and that the global growth outlook was downgraded, while it added that uncertainty has increased due to US tariff policies and it trimmed its core domestic inflation forecasts.
  • Governor Bullock: prepared to take further rate actions if required; price increases have slowed; Bullock adds this was a confident cut in rates; There was a discussion between a 50bps cut or a 25bps cut; discussed holding rates or cutting. Cannot say where the cash rate will end up, does not endorse market pricing (Note: ~55bps of cuts currently seen by year-end).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened modestly firmer across the board and have traded within a tight range thus far, given the lack of pertinent updates. European sectors are mixed, and aside from the top performer, the breadth of the market is fairly narrow. Utilities takes the top spot, with sentiment in wind names boosted after the Trump administration lifted a stop-work on Equinor’s (+1.3%) New York offshore wind farm project; the name is higher by around 1.5% - peers such as Orsted (+14%) have also been edging higher.

Top European News

  • BoE's Pill says "dissenting vote stems from a concern that the pace of withdrawal of monetary policy restriction since last summer – quarterly cuts of 25bp – is too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability". Dissent was in line with his preference for “cautious and gradual” cuts in Bank Rate expressed over the past twelve months. Would characterise his dissenting vote as favouring a ‘skip’ in the quarterly pattern of Bank Rate cuts. It should not be seen as favouring a halt to (still less a reversal of) that withdrawal of restriction. Is concerned that structural changes in the price and wage setting behaviour have increased the intrinsic persistence of the UK inflation process. The underlying disinflation continues. The prospective path of Bank Rate from here is downward. Dissent from the most recent decision does not reflect a fundamental difference with the MPC. Says "we should not be dependent on how the data turns out". Can't assume that the inflation "pain" of new economic shocks will dissipate quickly. Agrees with the MPC that there is an easing in the labour markets, has questions over the pace. Some key pay indicators "remain quite strong".
  • ECB's Schnabel says disinflation is on track, though new shocks could pose new challenges. Tariffs could be disinflationary in the short run but result in upside risk over the medium term. "We are facing a historical opportunity to foster the international role of the euro" & "When the inflation regime changes, we must be ready to respond swiftly".
  • German VCI Chemical Industry Association: Q1 Production +0.6% Y/Y; Revenue +1.8% Y/Y; notes that production is expected to stagnate this year and industry sales will decrease slightly.

FX

  • After a contained start, DXY has extended on Monday's downside which was largely attributed to the Moody's downgrade on the US on Friday. Newsflow on the trade front has been non-incremental aside from a Reuters sources piece noting that the US Treasury does not anticipate any trade deal announcements at the G7 Finance Meeting in Canada this week.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1931 vs exp. 7.2112 (Prev. 7.1916). Today's speaker slate includes Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack. DXY is just about holding above the 100 mark.
  • EUR fractionally firmer vs. the USD with not a great deal in terms of Eurozone newsflow aside from ongoing ECB speak with Executive Board member Schnabel noting that disinflation is on track, though new shocks could pose new challenges. EUR/USD sits towards the top end of Monday's 1.1169-1.1288 range.
  • JPY at the top of the G10 leaderboard with some of the move attributed to moves in Japanese yields with the 30yr JGB yield hitting its highest level since its debut since 1999 following a soft JGB auction overnight. On the trade front, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said Japan and the US conducted working-level talks on bilateral trade on Monday. Note, Japanese Finance Minister Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are expected to discuss exchange rates on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Canada this week. USD/JPY has delved as low as 144.10 but stopped shy of the 144 mark.
  • GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and steady vs. the EUR. This morning has seen remarks from BoE Chief Economist Pill, who dissented at the 8th May rate decision by voting for an unchanged rate vs. consensus for a 25bps cut. Pill noted that his dissenting vote stemmed from a concern that the pace of withdrawal of monetary policy restriction since last summer is too rapid, given the balance of risks to price stability. He added that his vote should be seen as a skip and not a halt to the withdrawal of the restriction process. The remarks had little follow-through to GBP; currently around 1.3370.
  • Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD with AUD lagging across the majors post-RBA. As expected, the RBA pulled the trigger on a 25bps cut whilst offering a cautious view on the outlook and lowering its inflation forecasts in its accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy. At the follow-up press conference, AUD/USD hit a session low at 0.6409 after Governor Bullock revealed that the board discussed cutting by 25bps or 50bps.

Fixed Income

  • JGBs were initially firmer, in-fitting with peers after Monday’s eventual intraday recovery from Moody’s-driven pressure. However, upside in Japan was limited into supply. But a poor 20yr outing caused JGBs to slip from 134.40 to a 138.78 base - pressure which has since pared.
  • USTs experienced a slight bearish blip on the above auction. However, Monday’s intraday recovery remained intact for USTs overnight and the benchmark has since extended to a 110-14+ high, eyeing 110-21+ from last week as the next point of resistance. Today's speaker slate includes Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack.
  • Bunds a little firmer today, in-fitting with peers. Early doors remarks from Schnabel this morning, though nothing that has fundamentally changed the narrative. Numerous speakers ahead incl. Cipollone, Knot & Nagel. Similarly, no move to German Producer Prices printing lower than expectations and the prior, driven primarily by energy prices for both Y/Y & M/M components. Continues to rebound from Monday’s pressure, at best has been 15 ticks above that session’s 130.60 peak. German 10yr and 30yr auctions were well received but had little impact on German paper.
  • Gilts are firmer and currently outperforming. Outperformance which comes as Gilts didn’t get as much time to benefit from Monday’s late-door rebound and as the UK benchmark was that session’s underperformer, given EU-UK updates. As it stands, at the upper-end of a 91.45-91.91 band. BoE’s Pill outlined that his vote in May to leave rates unchanged was a “skip”. In fitting with his preference for “cautious and gradual” cuts and stemmed from a view that the recent quarterly pace “is too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability”. No move in Gilts to his speech.
  • Hong Kong pension fund managers are reportedly sounding the alarm of potential forced selling of US Treasury holdings following Moody's downgrading US' rating, according to Bloomberg sources Hong Kong Investment Fund Association (HKFIA) has recommended that an exception to the maximum 10% holding rule is made for US Treasuries, to allow funds to invest above the limit even if the US is rated one notch below AAA, according to the sources. Japan's R&I still has an AAA rating (outlook stable) on the US, and is not considering a downgrade currently "don't believe the situation described there has significantly changed"
  • UK price guidance for new 5.375% 2056 Gilt in sale via syndication seen +1.75bps to +2.25bps over 4.25% 2055 Gilt, orders over GBP 70bln.

Commodities

  • Crude is lower this morning despite a softer dollar but amid a cautious risk tone in Europe and following some of the more sanguine tones from US President Trump regarding Russia, whilst upside was seen on less conciliatory commentary from the Iranian Supreme Leader. He said that he "does not think nuclear talks with the US will be successful", via Mehr news. Brent Jul'25 rose from USD 65.07/bbl to USD 66.00/bbl over three minutes - a move which has since mostly faded.
  • Relatively flat and lacklustre trade across precious metals amid a lack of pertinent macro drivers this morning, and following a relatively contained session on Monday. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3.204.67-3.232.85/oz range.
  • Mixed trade across base metals and in narrow ranges amid a lack of pertinent catalysts during the European session, whilst the broader risk tone remains cautious. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,443.05-9,520.90/t.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei says "I don't think nuclear talks with the US will be successful"; via Mehr news. Says to the US that they must remain from making outrageous demands. Saying that Iran will not be allowed to enrich uranium is excessive and outrageous.
  • "Israel Broadcasting Corporation: Netanyahu extends the stay of the Israeli negotiating team in Doha for an additional day", according to Alhadath.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu says "Gaza war could end "tomorrow" if hostages return and Hamas leaders lay down their arms", via Sky News Arabia.
  • Iran has received a proposal for the next round of indirect negotiations with the US, according to Iran International.
  • "Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: The time and place of the next round of nuclear negotiations with the United States have not yet been decided", according to Sky News Arabia

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

  • US President Trump said the US isn't stepping back from Russia-Ukraine negotiations and that it would be helpful to host Ukraine-Russia talks at the Vatican, while he repeated it is not his war and thinks something is going to happen with Russia and believes Putin wants to stop. Furthermore, Trump said he has a red line in his head on when he will stop pushing on Russia-Ukraine but won't say what that red line is and noted there could be a time when Russia sanctions will happen.
  • Kremlin spokesman said US President Trump and Russian President Putin talked about a direct conversation between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky although there is no decision yet on the place for the next direct contact between Russia and Ukraine. The spokesman stated there cannot be a deadline for preparing a memorandum between Russia and Ukraine, as well as noted that everyone is interested in a speedy settlement in Ukraine and that Russia is interested in eliminating the root causes of the conflict.

US Event Calendar

  • Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg activity survey

Central Bank Speakers

  • 9:00 am: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
  • 9:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech at Richmond Fed Conference
  • 9:30 am: Fed’s Collins Hosts Fed Listens Event in New Hampshire
  • 1:00 pm: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Policy
  • 5:00 pm: Fed’s Kugler Gives Commencement Address

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday felt like we were somewhere along the line of a "death by a thousand cuts" with regards to the US fiscal situation. Hard to know where in that thousand we are but probably much nearer a thousand than at zero even as yesterday saw an initial sell off reverse as the session went on. At the end of the day the loss of the final US triple-A rating late on Friday night doesn't change anything much immediately but it keeps the drip, drip, drip of poor fiscal news building up against the debt sustainability dam in the background. Anyway, that's enough of the metaphors.

In yesterday's CoTD (link here) I highlighted that Moody's base case is now for US deficits to hit nearly 9% by 2035 and asked in a flash poll whether this would happen, or how it would be avoided or dealt with if it did. I'll keep the poll open for a couple of hours before publishing the results in my CoTD this London lunchtime. See it here. It should only take less than 5 seconds and all views very welcome.

We saw a large round trip in Treasuries around the news, with the 30yr yield briefly reaching its highest intraday level since 2023, at 5.035%, before paring back that move to close at 4.90%, -4.1bps lower on the day and virtually in line with where we were immediately before the news late on Friday. That recovery started shortly after the US open and continued as the session went on. It perhaps indicates the slow moving trend of overseas investors selling Treasuries but domestic investors increasing their holdings.

Earlier on, the cross-asset moves had seen a minor rerun of what happened after Liberation Day as US assets lost ground across the board. The S&P 500 recovered from -1.05% at the lows to end +0.09% higher. The US asset that struggled the most was the dollar, with the index (-0.72%) seeing only a modest recovery from its -1.02% intra-day low. That dollar decline repeated the early April parallels of capital flight scenarios often seen in emerging markets, where the currency struggles even though rates are going up.

This is coming at a delicate time, because the US administration are seeking to pass an extension to the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which are currently due to expire at the end of 2025. My CoTD showed that the CBO believe that the US federal debt held by the public will surge to 220% by 2055 if the tax cuts are extended, with the deficit reaching 12% of GDP. Again feel free to vote in the CoTD flash poll if you want to express a view as to whether something happens way before we get to these type of levels or whether we will take it in our strides like every other debt / deficit landmark in recent years.

In terms of that bond move in more detail, the selloff was initially very aggressive, with the 30yr yield reaching 5.035% and on track for its highest close since 2023 and actually higher for only six business days since 2007. However, that was then pared back, and it actually ended the day -4.1bps lower at 4.90%. Similarly, the 10yr yield hit an intraday high of 4.56%, but eventually closed -3.0bps lower at 4.45%. So the initial fears of the day ultimately didn’t materialise as US buyers stepped in, and at the front end, the 2yr yield fell -2.4bps to 3.98%. Overnight, yields are moving less than a basis point across the curve.

Similarly to the rates move, the S&P 500 rallied from more than -1% down at the open to +0.09% by the close, marking its sixth consecutive gain. Defensive sectors including healthcare (+0.96%) and consumer staples (+0.42%) posted the strongest advances. By contrast, tech stocks didn't fully recover, with the Magnificent 7 down -0.25% after its best weekly performance in over two years. The small cap Russell 2000 (-0.42%) also lost ground. And reflecting the pick up in volatility, the VIX index rose (+0.90pts) rose from Friday’s seven-week low to 18.14pts.

Whilst the US fiscal news dominated attention, in the geopolitical space we had President Trump holding a call with President Putin, but this delivered little new on resolving the war in Ukraine. Trump posted following the call that Ukraine and Russia would “immediately start negotiations”. However, Trump’s comments did not repeat earlier threats of new sanctions against Russia or put immediate pressure on Moscow to deliver a ceasefire and his post suggested that the US might now take more of a backseat in the talks. Meanwhile, Putin was rather vague on the upcoming talks, again referring to the “need to eliminate the root causes of this crisis.”

Otherwise yesterday, several Fed officials signalled they weren’t in a hurry to cut rates. For instance, Vice Chair Jefferson said “I believe that it is appropriate that we wait and see how the policies evolve over time and their impact”. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said “I think we’ll have to wait three to six months to start to see where this settles out” and reiterated his expectation of only one more rate cut this year. Meanwhile, New York Fed President Williams said “It’s not going to be that in June we’re going to understand what’s happening here, or in July”. And Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted “It’s really just wait and see until we get more information.” So it was little surprise that investors continue to see a near-term rate cut as unlikely, with only a 35% chance of a cut priced by the July meeting.

Earlier in Europe, markets had put in a much steadier performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.13%) just about posting a small gain. That was echoed on the rates side too, where yields on 10yr bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (-0.4bps) and BTPs (+0.1bps) all saw little change. In the meantime, the UK and the EU also reached an agreement that deepened ties between the two after Brexit. Among others, the UK agreed an extension of EU fishing rights, in return for the removal of most border checks on farm exports. That came alongside a defence and security agreement, along with a potential youth mobility scheme, although the latter will be subject to further discussion. Our UK economists looked at the deal yesterday (link here), and their estimates show the long-run benefits to be around 0.5% of GDP by 2040.

For those of us in the UK fed up by not being able to use e-gates in the EU the deal only refers to the "potential use of eGates where appropriate". I've been in so many long queues in the last couple of years when eGates have been empty.
In Asia risk sentiment has been helped after China’s central bank announced cuts to key lending rates for the first time since October reinforcing expectations of looser monetary policy to support the country’s economy (more below). Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.29%) is leading gains while the CSI (+0.62%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.38%) are also edging higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.26%), the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.54%) are gaining but with the KOSPI (+0.05%) slipping back towards flat. S&P 500 (-0.29%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.43%) futures are giving back some of yesterday's recovery from the lows.

Coming back to China, the PBOC cut the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR), the reference rate for pricing all new loans and outstanding floating rate loans, to 3.0% from 3.1% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%. Meanwhile the RBA have just cut rates 25bps (as expected) as I finish this off with the presser ongoing. So far it leans dovishly.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Canada’s CPI and German PPI for April, along with the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for May for the Euro Area. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Hammack and Daly, the ECB’s Wunsch, Knot and Cipollone, and the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Home Depot.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 08:36

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