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Futures Drop As Traders Brace For Flood Of Data And Earnings

Futures Drop As Traders Brace For Flood Of Data And Earnings

US equity futures are lower, reversing earlier gains and trading near session lows in a narrow, jitter overnight session as traders prepare for a heavy slate of earnings and readings of consumer sales and small-business due later. As of 8:15am ET, stock futures were muted, down 0.1% after earlier rising 0.2% and approaching last month’s record levels after an artificial-intelligence-driven selloff and subsequent rebound over the past week. Nasdaq futures drop -0.2% with small caps outperforming as bond yields drops by 1-3bps and the USD is flat. The downbeat mood doesn’t match the bullish tone in Asia, where stocks hit fresh records while European bourses are green across the board. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mixed, Semis are bid with SMH leading IGV as TSMC sees revenue +37% YoY in Jan. Financials and Industrials are leading Cyclical outperformance with healthcare the best performing sector within Defensives. Commodities are weaker but with vol lower, it appears to be profit-taking than what we have seen YTD. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales, weekly ADP, Small Biz Survey, and Import / Export prices. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Amazon +0.7%, Nvidia +1%, Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.8%, Meta +0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Apple -0.4%)

  • Amentum (AMTM) falls 9% after the government contractor’s first-quarter revenue missed the average analyst estimate, pressured by contract transitions, divestitures and the government shutdown.
  • Amkor Technology (AMKR) rises 3% after the semiconductor manufacturing company’s first-quarter revenue forecast was stronger than expected, prompting several analysts to raise their price targets.
  • Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO) climbs 8% after agreeing to be acquired by investors led by Mubadala Capital in an all-cash transaction that values the billboard company at $6.2 billion, including debt.
  • Coca-Cola (KO) down 4% after offering a 2026 full-year sales outlook with a bottom end of the range that came in below Wall Street estimates. Atlanta-based Coca-Cola sees organic sales growth of 4% to 5%. Analysts expected 5.01% on average.
  • Credo Technology (CRDO) gains 17% after the communications equipment company’s preliminary third-quarter revenue was much stronger than expected.
  • Datadog (DDOG) rises 9% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics.
  • DuPont (DD) inches 2% higher after the chemicals company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate as healthcare and water technologies segment sales grew.
  • Goodyear Tire (GT) is down 9% after the company forecast that global unit volumes will be down in the first quarter, weighing on the profit outlook for the year.
  • Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) falls 13% after the company reported an unexpected drop in motorcycle shipments, extending its struggles in the face of weak demand and punishing tariffs.
  • Ichor (ICHR) gains 15% after the factory automation equipment company forecast adjusted EPS for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. It also reported better-than-expected 4Q results.
  • ON Semiconductor (ON) falls 3% after the chipmaker gave 1Q revenue guidance that was just shy of analyst expectations at mid-point, indicating a continued but slow recovery in demand for auto and industrial chips. Business disposals planned this year are also creating a headwind.
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) shares tumble 10% after US regulators rejected its gene therapy for Hunter syndrome, underscoring the hard line the Trump administration is taking on drug approvals for rare diseases.
  • Spotify (SPOT) rises 11% after the music streaming company reported a record 38 million monthly active users (MAUs) for the fourth quarter, surpassing its guidance for 32 million.
  • Upwork (UPWK) shares are down 22% after the online recruitment company’s first-quarter forecast was weaker than expected.

In corporate news, BP halted share buybacks as pressure on the energy major mounts. Tesla’s head of sales for North America is leaving, exiting a position that’s seen substantial turnover in the past year. The Teamsters Union sued UPS, demanding the company shut down its planned buyout program targeting UPS Teamsters drivers.

Markets are experiencing a moment of calm after an artificial-intelligence-driven selloff and subsequent rebound over the past week. Traders are now waiting to see how this week’s data may shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

“What’s at stake with this week’s US data is to know whether we can move from a K- to a V-shaped rebound,” said Kevin Thozet, an investment committee member at Carmignac. “There are signs that the US consumer’s morale is improving, but we’re not there yet. It’s clearly the objective of the Trump administration ahead of the midterms.”

In political news, President Macron of France said the EU needs to get tougher with Trump, who he said is pushing for the “dismemberment” of the bloc. Trump has also threatened to prevent the opening of a new bridge connecting Michigan and Ontario until the US is given compensation and ownership of half of it.  The EPA plans to repeal a policy that provides the legal foundation for rules regulating greenhouse gas emissions. China’s BYD, the world’s biggest manufacturer of EVs, has joined hundreds of companies in pushing to be refunded for duties paid under Trump’s import tariffs.

On the macro front, economists and analysts expect another solid month of retail sales in December, supported by household spending that has remained resilient despite the high cost of living and a fragile employment backdrop. 

Looking at earnings, out of the 302 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 79% have beat analyst estimates, while 17% have missed. More US companies are posting quarterly earnings growth, suggesting a sustained broadening beyond technology heavyweights, strategists at Deutsche Bank write. S&P 500 firms are on track to register a 14.5% increase in 4Q earnings, notching a four-year high. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.1% and switching between small rises and falls. CAC 40 higher after results from Kering boosted luxury stocks.Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

  • Thule shares gain as much as 15% for their biggest one-day gain in 10 months, after fourth-quarter results from the maker of roof and bike racks surpassed expectations.
  • Kering shares gain as much as 14%, the most since March 2020, on hopes that the French luxury group is returning to a path to growth following better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales at its Gucci unit.
  • Philips shares jump as much as 11%, the most in more than six months, after the Dutch medical technology firm reported better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter and provided guidance for 2026 which Bernstein analysts called “upbeat.”
  • Lanxess shares rise as much as 9.8% as Goldman Sachs upgrades the German firm to neutral from sell, saying it sees less of a risk around the balance sheet and signs of positive economic momentum across the European chemicals sector.
  • AstraZeneca shares rise as much as 2.3%, reversing an earlier dip, after the UK drugmaker provided upbeat sales guidance for 2026, which offset the weaker-than-expected core operating profit in the fourth quarter.
  • Bellway shares rise as much as 5.4% after the UK housebuilder said it has seen a pickup in demand since the start of the important spring selling season.
  • Allianz shares drop as much as 2.9%, leading a fall in European insurance stocks after US peers came under pressure on Monday over fears of artificial intelligence disruption.
  • TUI shares fall as much as 7.6%, the most since June, as analysts noted slower bookings revenue from Europe’s biggest travel operator as a reflection of the challenging environment.
  • BP shares drop as much as 5.7%, most since June, after the oil company suspended share buybacks to strengthen its balance sheet.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, as technology shares tracked their US peers higher on a revival of artificial intelligence enthusiasm, and Japan’s market extended gains following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as much as 1.4%, set for a fresh record high and third day of gains. TSMC was among the biggest boosts to the region, with January sales surging 37% from last year. Other winners include fellow AI beneficiaries Softbank Group and Alibaba. 
Stock benchmarks also rose in Hong Kong, India and Philippines while shares in South Korea closed little changed.  Risk sentiment has been on the mend in Asia, as global tech shares rebound from last week’s selloff on concerns over high spending levels and business obsolescence due to AI. Investors continue to assess the unfolding earnings season and indications on the path for global monetary policy.  Japanese stocks got a fresh jolt on expectations that the greater parliamentary majority for Takaichi’s party will give her a mandate to increase fiscal spending and cut the sales tax on food. Among fresh tailwinds for the AI trade, the Financial Times reported that US tech giants are set to get a reprieve from forthcoming US tariffs on imported semiconductors. Indonesian equities edged higher even as index compiler FTSE Russell said it will join MSCI in pausing its index review for the country due to the risk of adverse turnover and uncertainty in determining public float. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed, with the Norwegian krone rising on a surprise inflation jump, while Norwegian bonds are plunging.The Fed’s Bostic says he’s starting to see signs that confidence in the greenback is coming into question. The Fed’s Miran, meanwhile, said the central bank’s balance sheet should be smaller, but should be used during an economic crisis. Yen, Japanese stocks and long-end bonds all rallied on confidence that higher fiscal spending can be absorbed by markets.

In China, the yuan surged to its strongest level since May 2023 after regulators asked banks to limit their holdings of US Treasuries. The news reinforced a broader trend of diversification away from the dollar, potentially accelerating the repatriation of capital into Chinese assets.

In rates, treasuries hold small gains led by long-end tenors, outperforming European bonds ahead of December retail sales data, with January employment report ahead on Wednesday. Treasury yields are 1bp-3bp richer 3bp across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads tighter by 1bp and 1.5b. 10-year near 4.18% is 2bp richer on the day, slightly outperforming bunds and gilts.  Gilts leading gains in bonds following a turbulent session of political speculation on Monday,  as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer shored up his position as UK prime minister.  This week’s Treasury coupon auctions begin with $58 billion 3-year note sale at 1pm in New York: the auction has when-issued yield near 3.55%, about 6bp richer than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.1bp; supply cycle includes 10- and 30-year new issues Wednesday and Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate slate includes Bank of England 3Y and IADB 5Y FRN; Google parent Alphabet Inc. headlined Monday’s calendar with a $20 billion multi-tranche offering. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 5.4 times covered for the two deals.

Money markets continue to price in two Fed rate cuts for 2026, with the first move seen under the likely leadership of Kevin Warsh after Jerome Powell steps down as chair in May. Traders have been debating whether Warsh would represent a more hawkish choice for the top role than other candidates President Donald Trump considered.

Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset investing at Royal London Asset Management, said stocks are probably being driven more by interest-rate expectations than corporate results at the moment.

“You can see that by the performance of the technology sector and what’s going on with US Treasury yields,” Greetham said. “Recently, when you’ve had rising bonds, you’ve had tech underperformance, which tells you more about the interest-rate part of the calculation.”

In commodities, gold is edging lower but sticking above $5,000/oz, oil prices choppy with Brent holding around $69/barrel.

The US economic calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), December import/export price indexes and retail sales and 4Q employment cost index (8:30am) and November business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (12pm) and Logan (1pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini little changed,
  • Nasdaq 100 mini little changed,
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed,
  • DAX little changed,
  • CAC 40 +0.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.18%
  • VIX +0.1 points at 17.46
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1182.98,
  • euro little changed at $1.191
  • WTI crude -0.2% at $64.24/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump will travel to Beijing during the first week of April for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. BBG
  • White House eyes data center agreements amid energy price spikes, while a draft pact seeks to help ensure data centres do not raise household electricity prices and strain water resources or undermine grid reliability.
  • Trump said his pick to lead the Federal Reserve can stoke the economy to grow at a rate of 15%, an exceedingly rosy target that nonetheless underscores the pressure that Kevin Warsh will face if confirmed to the role. BBG
  • The Trump administration is planning this week to repeal the Obama-era scientific finding that serves as the legal basis for federal greenhouse-gas regulation, according to U.S. officials, in the most far-reaching rollback of U.S. climate policy to date. WSJ
  • Alphabet is selling sterling and Swiss franc-denominated bonds for the first time, including an ultra-rare issue of a 100-year note. This follows a bumper $20 billion debt deal in the US to fund its AI ambitions. BBG
  • Indian investors put a record $2.65 billion into gold ETFs in January, slightly more than equity funds, underscoring strong demand for bullion amid geopolitical and monetary risks. BBG
  • Emmanuel Macron warned that the EU must stand up to Donald Trump. In an interview with newspapers including Le Monde and the FT, Macron said he anticipates a clash with the US over digital regulation. BBG
  • TSM (TSMC) January sales grew at their fastest clip in months, a sign of sustained global AI spending even as concerns persist about an industry bubble. The contract chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. reported a 37% rise in January revenue to NT$401.3 billion ($12.7 billion), above the 30% revenue growth TSMC expects for the full year. BBG
  • Keir Starmer has managed to shore up his position for now, but low approval ratings and electoral and party challenges put his leadership at risk — even as the UK economy strengthens. BBG
  • The Fed’s Stephen Miran advocated a smaller Fed balance sheet while maintaining the option for large-scale asset purchases during crises. BBG
  • US Department of Health and Human Services is to cut USD 600mln in public health grants to blue states: BBG

Trade/Tariffs

  • India is reportedly in talks with France, Netherlands, Brazil and Canada over a deal on critical minerals.
  • Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said plan to visit US between February 11th to 14th to discuss Japan's investment plan.
  • US President Trump posted Canada is building a massive bridge between Ontario and Michigan which Canada will own and built it with virtually no US content, adds " I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated...".

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 approached closer towards its record levels, and the Nasdaq outperformed as the tech rebound persisted. ASX 200 marginally gained amid continued outperformance in tech, but with advances in the index limited by underperformance in the top-weighted financial sector and weakness in some defensives. Nikkei 225 rallied to a fresh record high near the 58,000 level amid the Takaichi trade and expectations of incoming stimulus, while SoftBank was among the biggest gainers due to its heavy semiconductor exposure. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged behind their regional counterparts in somewhat mixed trade, with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by pharmaceuticals, while the mainland was flat amid little fresh drivers.

Top Asian News

  • China NPC Standing Committee will hold 21st session on February 25th-26th in Beijing.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said discussions on using entire surplus are planned, but no position has been taken. Indicates that a proposed cut in food sales tax would serve as a temporary solution ahead of the implementation of a new tax credit system.
  • China released a white paper on Hong Kong's practice of safeguarding national security, according to Xinhua.
  • TSMC (2330 TT) January (TWD) rev. rose 37% Y/Y to 401.3bln (prev. 335.0bln M/M).
  • TSMC (2330 TT / TSM) board has approved the issuance of corporate bonds in Taiwan, of up to TWD 60bln in size.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are mostly firmer, but with slight underperformance in the FTSE 100 (-0.4%), which has been pressured by post-earning losses in BP (-5%) and as precious metals move lower. European sectors are mixed. Chemicals leads followed by Consumer Products whilst Travel & Leisure is found towards the bottom of the pile. For Luxury, Kering (+10%) is boosted by strong earnings, where the Co. highlighted it expects to return to growth and improve margins in 2026. Travel & Leisure has been pressured by TUI (-6%), which highlighted weaker markets and airline trading.

Top European News

  • UK Cabinet Office has asked all Ministers not to follow Wes Streeting in publishing their messages with Peter Mandelson.
  • Mail on Sunday's Hodges reported that his understanding is that UK PM Starmer "is planning some sort of fresh attempt to limit what gets published over the Mandelson saga.".
  • French President Macron said the bloc should not be lulled into a false sense of security that tensions with the US over Greenland, technology and trade are over. said:Reiterated called for the EU to raise common debt to raise in AI and quantum computing, energy transition and defence.

FX

  • DXY is flat and trades within a 96.79-97.00 range, taking a breather following the losses seen in the prior session. USD-specific newsflow has been lacking this morning, but will pick up later following the release of US Retail Sales and the Employment Cost Index; Fed speak is also due. On the trade front, Politico reported that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s summit is reportedly set for the first week of April – though the White House clarified that nothing is set in stone. ING opines that the index could trade within a 96.50-97.50 range over the next few days.
  • JPY is the outperformer this morning, in the aftermath of the LDP landslide victory on Sunday. As mentioned in the coverage on Monday, investors are seemingly deriving confidence from the renewed political stability, and trust recent vows by PM Takaichi that she aims to adhere to fiscal responsibility. Moreover, on the monetary policy side of things, markets are increasing their bets of faster BoJ normalisation. JGB pressure also subsided overnight (albeit were already within recent ranges), and the continued strength in the Nikkei will also push JPY bears away. ING, citing local brokers, expects JPY 10tln to enter Japanese equities over the next 3 months – which could see USD/JPY break below 155.00. The pair currently trades around 155.30, and within a 155.08-156.29 range.
  • G10s are mixed against the USD; as mentioned, JPY outperforms (+0.3%) whilst the Aussie is the slight laggard, as precious metals pull back a touch. The GBP remains on the backfoot, despite comments from PM Starmer who reiterated that he is to remain in his position – pushing back calls for him to resign. EUR is currently flat; earlier, ECB’s de Guindos failed to move the single currency, as his comments were largely in fitting with the Bank’s latest policy announcement. He stated that the ECB would need to be very vigilant if Chinese exports to Europe increase, via Econostream.
  • NOK is stronger this morning after the region’s inflation metrics topped expectations. In brief, Core Y/Y printed at 3.4% (exp. 3%), with the headline metrics also printing above forecasts. Norges Bank has longed reiterated the line that “the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year”. Some had seen a cut as early as March/May, whilst SEB saw a cut in June pre-release; following the data the firm said, “we will not change our forecast for a June cut based on this one inflation release, but risks for a later cut have increased". EUR/NOK is currently lower by 0.4%, and trades at the lower end of a 11.3468-11.4254 range.

Fixed Income

  • Benchmarks bounce this morning with JGBs firmer overnight, having picked up off post-election lows, USTs rebounding from the pressure after the China diversification report. JGBs firmer by near 30 ticks at best, back to the week's 131.60 opening level.
  • Gilts have also rebounded, as the immediate pressure on PM Starmer eased slightly after the Cabinet backed him yesterday and no fresh revelations emerged overnight. As such, the benchmark gapped higher by 23 ticks before climbing to a 90.88 peak, firmer by 37 ticks on the day. However, Starmer's situation remains fraught into the end-February by-election, May local elections and amidst that any fresh revelations about his dealings with Mandelson. On that point, the Mail on Sunday's Hodges reports that Starmer appears to be planning to limit what is published re. Mandelson, and the Cabinet Office have asked Ministers not to publish their personal messages with Mandelson, after Wes Streeting made his available. No move to the 2031 Gilt auction, which was strong.
  • Limited newsflow for EGBs thus far. As such, the benchmark is firmer given the bias from above, but with magnitudes more modest as EGBs were not hit directly by the China-UST report or the Starmer situation on Monday. Bunds moved a touch lower heading into a 2031 Bobl outing, which overall follows an improving trend of German outings, but still remains soft; EGBs remain firmer by a handful of ticks.
  • Back to USTs, the benchmark is firmer by a handful of ticks at a 112-10 high, looking to last week's 112-16+ peak. The docket is headlined by data (weekly ADP, Retail Sales & ECI) before Wednesday's Payrolls & Friday's CPI; additionally, 3yr supply is scheduled just after 2026 voters Hammack and Logan.
  • Germany sells EUR 3.811bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.65x (prev. 1.41x), average yield 2.40% (prev. 2.47%), retention 23.8% (prev. 23.38%)
  • UK sold GBP 3.75bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.94x (prev. 3.50x), average yield 4.001% (prev. 3.980%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
  • Netherlands sold EUR 1.845bln vs exp. EUR 1.5–2bln 3.25% 2044 Green DSL: average yield 3.388% (prev. 3.176%).
  • Alphabet (GOOGL) launches its first GBP debt sale with a 100-year note. To also sell GBP-denominated 3-year, 6-year, 15-year and 32-year bonds.
  • Japan sold JPY 250bln 10yr I/L JGB; b/c 3.38x, (prev. 3.46x), yield at lowest accepted price 0.458% (prev. 0.113%). Lowest accepted price 96.05 (prev. 99.00).
  • Alphabet (GOOGL) launches its first CHF debt sale, according to Bloomberg.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks have held onto the majority of Monday's gains, with WTI holding above USD 64/bbl while Brent regains the USD 69/bbl mark. Geopolitical risk premium continues to be priced into the oil market, despite US-Iran tensions easing somewhat following their indirect talks in Oman.
  • Nat gas futures have continued to pull back from the surge higher following the Arctic storm, due to warmer weather forecasts in the US. Henry Hub futures continue to near USD 3/MMBtu while Dutch TTF holds below EUR 35/MWh.
  • Spot gold continues to hold above the USD 5k/oz, with Monday's session managing to close above the level for the first time since the selloff on January 30th. The yellow metal sold off modestly at the start of the APAC session but has since clawed back earlier losses and is only seeing modest losses of 0.2%, at the time of writing.
  • 3M LME Copper trades muted and in tight ranges, as the Chinese New Year holiday looms. Buying of the red metal is expected to be light going into, and throughout, the holiday period, with buying expected to resume when the festive period ends.
  • Bank of China (3988 HK) is to increase margin requirements for gold deferred contracts, effective from the 11th of February.
  • Venezuela's largest refinery, Amuay, is out of service after a power blackout, according sources.

Central Banks

  • US President Trump said he doesn't know if the Powell probe is worth holding up Warsh, adds Powell is incompetent, but the question is if he's corrupt.
  • Fed's Miran (Voter, Dove) said no significant tariff-driven inflation seen so far, and interest rates should be much lower than current levels.
  • US President Trump said in a Fox Business taped interview that the US economy can grow at 15% if Fed nominee Walsh does a job that he's capable of.
  • BoJ is to submit nominee to replace board member Noguchi on February 25th.
  • ECB's de Guindos said the ECB would need to be very vigilant if Chinese exports to Europe increases, describes the economy as more resilient and inflation is moving towards target, via Econostream. Reiterates the current level of rates are appropriate. Recent euro strength is fully consistent with the assumptions included in the ECB's projections.
  • Monetary Authority of Singapore chief economist said monetary policy stance remains appropriate.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia's Kremlin announce that they have no clear date for the next round of discussion with Ukraine.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iran warns of destructive influence on diplomacy ahead of Israeli's PM Netanyahu's trip to the US.
  • White House officials said US President Trump does not support Israel annexing the West Bank, adds stable West Bank is key to Israel's security and align with the administration's peace goals.

Geopolitics: Other

  • EU Defence Commissioner Kubilius said the EU needs to take responsibility for its defence and that replacing US strategic enablers with European ones should be a priority.
  • China holds 2026 work conference on Taiwan affairs, while Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Wang Huning said will resolutely crack down on Taiwan independence, according to Xinhua.
  • China’s embassy in London said it has consistently opposed UK interference in China’s internal affairs, including the BNO issue. said:Urges British side to follow the general trend and cease political interference, while it accused Britain of resorting to tricks and described its behaviour as contemptible.
  • Philippines ambassador to Washington said China seems ready to find ways to ease South China Sea tensions through cooperation.
  • US military said it carried out a strike on a vessel in the eastern Pacific, killing two and leaving one survivor.
  • US Interior Secretary Burgum said Greenland deal is moving forward with progress.

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00 am: United States Jan NFIB Small Business
  • 8:30 am: United States Dec Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%
  • 8:30 am: United States 4Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30 am: United States Dec Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
  • 8:30 am: United States Dec Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
  • 12:00 pm: United States Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Banking and Economic Outlook
  • 1:00 pm: United States Fed’s Logan Speaks at Asset Management Derivatives Forum

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A rare moment of peace descended yesterday: not a single new disruptive AI model has appeared since at least last Thursday! The lull gave me just enough time to investigate who “Bad Bunny” is, having been entirely unaware of their existence before the Super Bowl halftime show. After a few clips from the most streamed global artist of 2025 it’s safe to say I won’t listen again. Talking of rabbits, the market bounce continued yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.47%) closing just shy of its record high, while in Europe the STOXX 600 (+0.70%) hit another record high. Tech stocks led the way, posting a strong rebound from their recent slump, and the S&P 500’s software component (+3.36%) had its best daily performance since May last year, with little sign of the concern that affected markets last week. The rebound also supported other asset classes including gold (+1.88%) but overall it was a fairly quiet day on the news front. Treasury yields saw a modest decline following some unusual labour market comments from NEC Director Kevin Hassett ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report.

Hassett said on CNBC that markets should expect “slightly lower jobs numbers”, but that this “shouldn’t trigger any panic.” While this was more a comment on the general jobs trend amid slowing population growth and rising productivity, it still created some fears over a weaker number for the delayed January jobs report tomorrow, particularly after the JOLTS survey last Thursday showed December job openings at their lowest since 2020. Treasuries saw a modest rally following Hassett’s interview, with 2yr yields closing -1.3bps lower at 3.49% and 10yr yields -0.5bps at 4.20%. They are -0.8bps and -1.5bps lower again this morning.

Yields had been higher earlier, and 30yrs still closed +0.7bps at 4.86% following a Bloomberg report that Chinese regulators had directed financial institutions to limit purchases of US Treasuries. So that limited the performance of bonds but like the rest of the curve, 30yrs are rallying (-1.5bps) this morning.  The dollar is flat this morning but yesterday fell -0.77%, posting its second-worst day of 2026 so far.
By contrast, US equities had a strong day, with the S&P 500 (+0.47%) closing just 0.2% from its all-time high. Technology stocks led the gains after last week’s struggles, with Oracle (+9.64%) the second best-performer in the S&P500 though its shares are still down over -50% from their September peak. The Mag-7 were up +1.10% led by Microsoft (+3.11%) and Nvidia (+2.50%). And the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 (+0.07%) reached a new record, even as its advance was limited by losses in defensive sectors including healthcare (-0.86%) and consumer staples (-0.86%).

Earlier on, UK politics was back in the headlines, with gilts coming under fresh pressure amidst a further round of questions about PM Starmer’s position. Gilts had struggled from the open, given the weekend news that Starmer’s chief of staff had resigned. The selloff then reached its peak after Labour’s leader in Scotland publicly called on Starmer to resign, with investors concerned that a new PM may be more likely to ease the fiscal rules and borrow more. At the intraday peak, 10yr gilt yields were up by over +8bps, but this move faded back to just +1.2bps higher after the entire cabinet publicly came out in support of Starmer. Similarly, the 30yr gilt yield was +9bps intraday, before closing up just +1.0bps. Still, UK assets in general underperformed, with the FTSE100 (+0.16%) eking out only a marginal gain.

There was stronger performance elsewhere in Europe, with multiple indices like the STOXX 600 (+0.70%), FTSE MIB (+2.06%), and DAX (+1.19%) all posting strong gains. Sovereign bonds also rallied, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps), OAT (-0.4bps) and BTPs (-1.6bps) falling back. Those moves came as markets slightly dialled up the chances of another ECB rate cut this year from 22% to 29%. While ECB President Lagarde said little new on policy compared to last week’s press conference, Bundesbank President Nagel said that while there was no current need for the ECB to react to below target inflation, they could adjust policy in either direction.

Earlier on, we also heard that Banque du France Governor Villeroy will be stepping down from his position on June 1, before the end of his term in October 2027. Villeroy said his decision to step down was a “personal” one but it means that President Macron will now get to nominate the next Governor for a new six-year term, rather than the pick being left until after the French Presidential election due next spring. It also adds to the upcoming changes of some of the key figures on the ECB Governing Council, including Vice President de Guindos who is finishing his term in May.

Elsewhere in markets, Brent crude oil prices rose +1.45% to $69.04/bbl after the US Maritime Administration warned US ships to stay “as far as possible” from Iranian territory. So that added to fears about a potential escalation, with oil prices continuing to fluctuate on various headlines. Meanwhile, silver (+7.15%) and gold prices (+1.88%) also rebounded, with gold closing at $5,058/oz. This morning Brent and Gold are back down just under half a percent with Silver down -2.5%.

Japanese equities continue their climb this morning with the Nikkei (+2.34%) and Topix (+1.89%) extending record levels in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the Lower House. JGBs are remarkably calm with 10 and 30yr yields -3 to -4bps lower. The Yen continues to edge higher (+0.3%) to 155.30 having been as low as 157.73 near the open yesterday as markets first reacted to the likely record election victory. So all calm for now. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.54%) and the KOSPI (+0.53%) are both higher with other markets flatish, including US and European futures. 

To the day ahead now, data includes US January NFIB small business optimism, Q4 employment cost index, December retail sales, import price index, export price index, November business inventories. We’ll also hear the Fed's Hammack and Logan speak. Earnings include Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, and Barclays. Finally, the US will hold a 3yr Treasury auction

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 08:36

Algerian Boxer Admits To Having XY Chromosomes And Commits To Hormonal Treatments

Algerian Boxer Admits To Having XY Chromosomes And Commits To Hormonal Treatments

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

With the start of the Winter Games, a story this week resurrected a controversy from the last Summer Olympics. Previously, Olympic officials and pundits denounced those who objected to Algerian boxer Imane Khelif competing as a woman, saying that she was born a female. Female boxers withdrew from the competition rather than fight Khelif. Now, the boxer has admitted to having XY chromosomes and is taking hormone treatments to lower testosterone levels for the next Olympics.

At the time, IOC chief Thomas Bach said: “We have two boxers… who were born as women, raised as women, who have passports as women, who have competed for many years as women. And this is a clear definition of a woman.”

In 2023, the International Boxing Association (IBA) President Umar Kremlev explained the IBA’s decision to disqualify Taiwan’s Lin Yu-ting and Algeria’s Imane Khelif from the 2023 Women’s World Boxing Championships. While there remains confusion on the testing used by the IBA (or the reliability of those tests), it issued this statement:

“Based on DNA tests, we identified a number of athletes who tried to trick their colleagues into posing as women. According to the results of the tests, it was proved that they have XY chromosomes. Such athletes were excluded from competition.”

Various media also did their own “fact checks” with outlets like USA Today stating that the “outcries from anti-trans celebrities and politicians” were based on false claims and the boxers were born women.

NBC also cited “attacks from anti-LGBTQ+ conservatives online who claim they’re transgender.”  It stressed that the IBA could not be trusted since the IOC banned the group. (IBA was banned for corruption and financial-related issues).

I wrote about the controversy, criticizing the lack of consistent testing and simple confirmation of the XY chromosomal allegation.

Khelif still insists on competing against female boxers and added:

“Doctors and teachers decide. We all have different genetics, all different hormone levels. I’m not a transsexual. My difference, it is natural. I’m like that. I did nothing to change the way nature did to me. That’s why I’m not afraid. For the next Games, if you have to take a test, I will submit to it. I have no problem with that. I already did this test. I contacted World Boxing, I sent them my medical record, my hormonal tests, everything. But I had no answer. I’m not hiding, I’m not refusing testing. What I don’t understand is why we want to make my story so bigger.”

Notably, Khelif previously filed a criminal complaint against JK Rowling and Elon Musk for cyberbullying.  It is another example of how free speech is being eviscerated in Europe through the criminalization of political speech. I cannot find a record of the complaint’s status.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 21:45

Rubio Slams 'Unjust' Jimmy Lai Sentence After Hong Kong Court Issues 20 Years

Rubio Slams 'Unjust' Jimmy Lai Sentence After Hong Kong Court Issues 20 Years

The high profile trial of Hong Kong's foremost pro-democracy media tycoon wrapped up in December, whereupon Jimmy Lai was found guilty of sedition. He had long spearheaded huge protests and local Hong Kong media criticism of Beijing, but came under legal hot water and scrutiny with the passage of the notorious China-imposed national security law.

Finally, on Monday he was handed a very harsh 20-year prison sentence, resulting in outrage and condemnations aimed at China from across the globe. This is effectively life in prison, or even a death sentence, for the 78-year old who also suffers various health problems.

via AP/Al Jazeera: Jimmy Lai walks through the Stanley Prison in Hong Kong on July 28, 2023

This is after he's already spent over five years in prison, and the trial alone lasted two years. He was first detained in August 2020 under Hong Kong’s Beijing-imposed national security law, in wake of large-scale student protests which at times brought whole sectors of the city to a standstill.

The city’s High Court said in its ruling: "Having stepped back and taking a global view of the total sentence for Lai’s serious and grave criminal conduct ... we are satisfied that the total sentence for Lai in the present case should be 20 years’ imprisonment."

The security law has been widely seen as the final nail in the coffin of Hong Kong's long-running autonomy, and was a response to the major 2019 protests which were widely covered in international press reports.

China had long alleged a foreign intelligence 'hidden hand' behind the protests. This was in part due to student activists being in semi-regular communication with Western officials and NGOs, and sometimes even honored at events hosted in Europe or the US.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was swift to issue Washington's response to the verdict on Monday, calling the sentencing an unjust and tragic conclusion.

"The Hong Kong High Court’s decision to sentence Jimmy Lai to 20 years is an unjust and tragic conclusion to this case," Rubio said in the statement. 

"It shows the world that Beijing will go to extraordinary lengths to silence those who advocate fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, casting aside the international commitments Beijing made in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration," the US top diplomat added.

Elaine Pearson, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, stated that "A sentence of this magnitude is both cruel and profoundly unjust."

Western leaders, including of the US and Britain, are expected to lobby for his freedom, especially given that this is being viewed as ultimately a crackdown on Western values in influence on one of the world's main financial hubs. But given sentencing has been accomplished, any such action to obtain his release will get harder and harder. China, on the other hand, said he encouraged violence and foreign subversion.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 21:20

Downward Bitch: Irate Yoga Wokes Demand 'Complicit' Instructors Condemn ICE

Downward Bitch: Irate Yoga Wokes Demand 'Complicit' Instructors Condemn ICE

A Sunday yoga class at Minneapolis CorePower Yoga studio turned into an unscripted protest earlier this month, as a group of enraged customers berated front-desk staff for not condemning federal immigration enforcement, prompting the Denver-based chain to ban one regular and agree to post anti-ICE signage in its studios.

Caught on camera and subsequently gone viral, the confrontation unfolded inside the CorePower studio lobby after a class let out. The video, posted by regular yogi Heather Anderson, 51, shows more than a dozen spandex-clad patrons “spontaneously” demanding answers from two visibly uncomfortable staffers over the company’s stance on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

“Why are you being silent? Let’s hear it - loud and proud, baby!” Anderson demands, as she films a blonde staffer identified only as “Delaney,” amid approving snaps and cheers from the crowd.

Anderson repeatedly presses the staffer for a corporate position on ICE, dismissing the employee’s attempt to “take a pause” as unacceptable. When a second employee tries to speak, the group grows louder, with one student accusing the company of being “complicit” in violent federal immigration actions.

“You’re not being berated - you’re being asked hard questions,” Anderson snaps, before demanding the return of an anti-ICE sign she says was taken down from the studio’s front door.

Throughout the nearly six-minute clip, Lionel Richie’s “All Night Long” blares in the background as the crowd continues its vocal denunciations of the staff, who appear unsure how to respond. At one point, a woman in the group declares, “People are being murdered and abducted and attacked here — this is our community and this is bulls-t!”

The routine protest-cum-yoga-studio takedown gained traction after Anderson said patrons caught wind of rumors that corporate had ordered the removal of previously displayed anti-ICE signage. “Every single business in Minneapolis has something on their door right now — it’s not like we were asking for something out of the loop,” she told The Post.

In the aftermath, CorePower issued a series of Instagram Stories saying the company did not support the “violent ICE raids happening in Minneapolis” and that it had distributed approved signage to its studios. Anderson, however, was banned from the location after the incident.

Despite the ban, Anderson stood by her actions. “What I said in that video landed,” she insisted, adding that when one side refuses to engage constructively, activists are forced into a “self-preservation stance.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 20:30

Gun Owner Denied Firearm By ATF For Claiming "God Given Rights"

Gun Owner Denied Firearm By ATF For Claiming "God Given Rights"

Via Gun Owners of America,

A member of Gun Owners of America was recently denied a firearm by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for writing "exercise my God given right" as their reason for manufacturing the firearm.

Our member wasn’t doing anything illegal; they were not attempting to manufacture something that was banned in their state of residence. They weren’t building anything that is banned federally, and they were complying with all regulations set forth by ATF during the registration process.

Even though no statute or regulation requires it, ATF’s Form 1, Box 4(i) demands that gun owners “specify why you intend to make [a] firearm.”

This GOA member wrote:

As a law-abiding US citizen with no criminal record, you don’t need a reason to purchase or manufacture a firearm. That’s what the Second Amendment is for. Yet ATF denied our member’s application for this exact reason.

Of course, ATF always forgets the “shall not be infringed” part.

As you can clearly see, our member’s Second Amendment rights were denied by bureaucrats because of an “insufficient reason.”

How is the desire to exercise one’s God-given rights an insufficient justification to exercise one’s God-given rights?

This is yet another clear reason why the ATF needs to be defunded and abolished entirely. The Second Amendment guarantees the exercise of our God given right to keep and bear arms.

Stating otherwise is a complete tyrannical falsehood.

That’s why we at Gun Owners of America just filed a notice of supplemental authority in our One Big Beautiful Lawsuit, using this as an example of government weaponizing the NFA against law abiding gun owners.

In our filing, we dismantle the government’s assertions that the National Firearms Act creates only a “modest burden” on the Second Amendment and that the NFA’s registration requirements are comparable to a “shall-issue” permitting system in pro-gun states.

ATF’s blatant denial of our member’s Second Amendment rights shatters this narrative completely.

Instead, the government treats the NFA’s registration requirements as a “may-issue” system - a subjective determination on who is allowed to own these firearms by government employees.

These “may-issue” systems were explicitly declared to be unconstitutional by the Supreme Court thanks to the Bruen decision. We think SCOTUS should rule the same here and abolish the NFA’s registration requirements forever.

We’re glad to be fighting on behalf of our member, because nobody should be denied for exercising their Second Amendment rights by the tyrannical bureaucrats at ATF.

If you aren’t already, please consider becoming a GOA member, so that we can fight on your behalf if the ATF attempts to deny your Second Amendment rights.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 20:05

Toyota Taps Kenta Kon As New CEO In Leadership Shake-Up

Toyota Taps Kenta Kon As New CEO In Leadership Shake-Up

Toyota is reshaping its leadership once again, naming Kenta Kon as its next chief executive, with the transition set for April 1. Kon, currently the company’s chief financial officer, will step into the top role as part of a broader management realignment, according to Car & Driver.

The move shifts current CEO Koji Sato into a dual position as vice chairman and chief industry officer. Toyota says the change is designed to reduce Sato’s workload, especially after he took on the chairmanship of Japan’s main auto industry group earlier this year. Under the new structure, he will “focus on the broader industry, including Toyota, as Vice Chairman and CIO, while Kon will focus on internal company management as President and CEO.”

Kon succeeds Sato just three years after he assumed the role following the departure of Akio Toyoda, who stepped down in 2023 after more than a decade leading the company founded by his grandfather. That earlier transition marked a shift away from family leadership, and this latest change continues Toyota’s evolution.

The report says that industry observers see Kon’s promotion as a signal that Toyota is emphasizing financial strategy. Automotive News has described him as a “longtime confidant” of Toyoda, and his background in finance contrasts with his predecessors’ engineering-focused careers. Sato, for example, previously led Lexus and Toyota’s Gazoo Racing division, helping expand the company’s performance brand and develop models like the GR Corolla and Supra.

Kon’s former role as CFO will now be filled by executive vice president Yoichi Miyazaki, who has held the position before.

At a news conference in Tokyo, Kon made clear that profitability will be central to his leadership. “My role will be establishing this good profit structure, this foundation, so that the people can take on courageous challenges,” he said. “I want to use that money for the future of Toyota.”

With Kon focusing on internal management and financial strength, and Sato turning his attention to industry-wide issues, Toyota Motor Corporation is betting that a clearer division of responsibilities will help guide the automaker through its next phase of growth and competition.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 19:40

Google Versus China's Cyber Weapon

Google Versus China's Cyber Weapon

Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

Google has sacked a Chinese company’s global proxy network, which constitutes part of a Chinese cyber weapon aimed at U.S. and allied critical infrastructure and telecommunications.

In this photo illustration, the Google logo is projected onto a man in London, England, on Aug. 9, 2017. Leon Neal/Getty Images

The company, Ipidea, allegedly has proxy malware that silently piggybacked on millions of legitimate software downloads by regular U.S. consumers to their phones, tablets, computers, televisions, and projectors. The internet bandwidth of these and other victims is then rented by such proxy networks to malign state actors, criminals, and others seeking to use the internet anonymously. Such networks are a national security threat of the greatest magnitude.

The Google takedown required a federal court order to remove dozens of the company’s domains and apps from approximately 9 million Android devices. Ipidea does not reveal the name of its CEO or headquarters location, which is somewhere in China. However, it does admit to operations in 220 countries using tens of millions of devices. Given the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) unprecedented surveillance in China, Ipidea likely has the full support of the regime. It could be a full-fledged Chinese intelligence operation.

The attacks are the tip of an iceberg that is sinking the privacy and security of American citizens, U.S. allies, and the future of democracy. One focus of CCP cyberattacks is hundreds of high-value critical infrastructure targets, such as municipal water companies, electricity plants, and ports. Another focus is on government operations, including the U.S. National Guard, National Nuclear Security Administration, and Congressional committees key to U.S. foreign and national security policy.

China’s hacker assaults are often given various storm names, such as Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon. They allegedly targeted approximately 200 U.S. companies and gathered the private data of almost all Americans. The targets include small municipal water and electric companies that have little or nothing to do with national security. They have no military bases or other sensitive sites nearby.

The only plausible reason for targeting such civilian infrastructure is to target civilians during a war, which is a violation of international norms. In some cases, exported devices and malware include the ability to hack hospitals or flood the water supply with poisonous treatment chemicals at high concentrations.

In December 2024, CCP representatives admitted to Biden administration officials of hacking U.S. infrastructure, including ports and water utilities. The regime representatives said the reason was U.S. support for Taiwan. This was probably a veiled threat against the United States to warn it off from support for Taiwan in case of war.

Hackers in China are similarly targeting the critical infrastructure of U.S. allies, like the United Kingdom, Australia, and Singapore. The hackers also target China’s allies, including Russia, to acquire data about the war in Ukraine. Battlefield data on the performance of different weapons systems is useful to Beijing’s military planning and armaments production. In the worst of cases, foreign weapons could be hacked and used against their own civilians.

Many Southeast Asian countries are also targets, and Taiwan’s chip industry is of particular interest.

In November, Anthropic revealed that state-sponsored hackers in China had used its AI technology in history’s first AI-powered hack, of about 30 U.S. companies and government agencies. The companies included technology, chemical, and financial companies. While Chinese agents allegedly directed and oversaw the attack, as much as 90 percent of them were carried out by Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, acting independently.

The latest Claude models require minimal programming by human coders as they can code programs themselves in response to normal language prompts by humans. The risk of this technology in the hands of a totalitarian state like China is incalculably high.

Anthropic is an American artificial intelligence (AI) company founded in 2021. It develops Claude, a family of large language models, and is also known for its research in AI safety, particularly interpretability. Riccardo Milani/Hans Lucas via AFP via Getty Images

An international coalition of government cybersecurity agencies, including those from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Japan, is publicly identifying individual Chinese companies for their hacking activity and provision of cyber products to China’s military and intelligence agencies.

The warning focuses on Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actors in China that target “telecommunications, government, transportation, lodging, and military infrastructure networks” globally. France was conspicuously absent as a signer. In 2024, China’s APT31 hacking group allegedly targeted seven French parliamentarians.

The coalition’s warning is good, but not nearly enough to stop China’s highly lucrative practice of hacking pretty much anyone and everyone. CCP hacking will continue to weaken the United States and its allies until direct repercussions are imposed, including through counter-hacking and other measures designed to inflict significant economic damage on the regime.

These repercussions should be at the all-of-China level, not against particular companies. Sanctioning individual companies is ineffective, as they simply do the bidding of the CCP. Real repercussions should instead be imposed on the almost $20.7 trillion Chinese economy, and its almost $1.2 trillion in annual international trade. This should ideally be done to the financial benefit of the United States and U.S. allies as a form of economic compensation for previous harms done by the CCP. These harms include the COVID-19 pandemic, the fentanyl crisis, and intellectual property theft. The longer America waits to act, the more powerful the CCP becomes.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 19:15

Iran Offers To Dilute Enriched Uranium If US Lifts All The Sanctions

Iran Offers To Dilute Enriched Uranium If US Lifts All The Sanctions

Iran has just made a significant overture amid the US pressure campaign, and as the two sides are set for a next round of indirect negotiations in the coming days. "Iran could agree to dilute its most highly enriched uranium in exchange for all financial sanctions being lifted, its atomic chief said on Monday, one of the most direct indications so far of its position at talks with Washington," Reuters reports.

Tehran has rejected White House demands that the country's ballistic missile arsenal also be subject of the talks, but this fresh Iranian offer to dilute its nuclear stockpile marks a significant turn, showing a willingness to entertain serious compromise on the nuclear front.

Image source: IRNA

Reuters recounts, "Washington has demanded Iran relinquish its stockpile - estimated last year by the UN nuclear agency at more than 440 kg - of uranium enriched to up to 60% fissile purity, a small step away from the 90% that is considered weapons grade."

But now the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, is strongly signaling Tehran is ready to play ball, even if it is on Washington's terms - and after a history of the US side breaking its word (starting with the first Trump admin's unilateral pullout from the JCPOA nuclear deal).

"The possibility of diluting 60% enriched uranium... depends on whether, in return, all sanctions are lifted or not," Eslami made clear.

All of this stems from last month's very bloody protests and riots inside Iran, largely the result of the stranglehold that US sanctions have on the population. The White House since then has threatened regime change and dialed up the sanctions. 

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the issue in Monday televised remarks. He urged citizens to participate in the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution this week, said they must show "resolve" against foreign powers plotting the demise of the Islamic Republic.

"The presence of the people in the march and their expression of loyalty to the Islamic Republic will cause the enemy to stop coveting Iran," Khamenei said.

As for the ongoing negotiations base in Oman, which are at a very early and delicate stage, the geopolitical commentator Moon of Alabama has outlined some astute observations and expected outcomes as follows:

The likely outcome: Trump will have to lift some sanctions and, in exchange, will get some limited nuclear agreement with Iran. I assume that it will be softer on Iran than the JCPOA agreement which had been signed under Obama only to be trashed later by Trump.

The other demands on Iran which the Israelis had made through Trump: – no enrichment, a curb on the number and range of its ballistic missiles, an end of support for militia in the region – will not be part of the negotiations.

Those points are not of interest for Trump. He wants and needs an agreement – any agreement – that can be sold to the public has his personal success. The details will matter less to him than the fact that an agreement was made.

Israel will not like this. It wants Iran to be destroyed as a potential regional leader. Israel itself is too weak to defeat Iran. It may well try false flag strikes or terrorism to get the U.S. to finally do what it wants.

Monday's overture by Iran reflects just the above scenario, but it's unclear what the US reaction will be at this point. 

The US continues putting a huge amount of military assets in place in the Mideast region, and in Europe with an eye on supporting CENTCOM operations.

Despite this ominous build-up, Moon of Alabama concludes: "But the U.S. is no longer the all powerful force in the Arab region that it had been 30 years ago. It is lacking the means to defend its ships and bases against attacks by ballistic missiles and drones. This while Iran has systematically build up such  weapons and forces."

This could mean the conditions for a last-ditch major deal to avert military conflict remain favorable. But Trump is also as unpredictable as ever, and there are still hardline pro-Zionist hawks speaking in his ear.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 18:50

Leftists Lose It As Pro-ICE Ad Plays During Super Bowl

Leftists Lose It As Pro-ICE Ad Plays During Super Bowl

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A powerful pro-ICE advertisement aired during Super Bowl 60, spotlighting the everyday heroes in Immigration and Customs Enforcement who risk their lives to protect communities from violent criminals.

The spot, which ran right after Bad Bunny’s trash halftime performance, portrayed ICE agents as friends, neighbors, fathers, veterans, and Little League coaches dedicated to making America safer. Sponsored by the conservative group American Sovereignty, it struck a nerve with leftists already seething over recent ICE operations.

The 30-second spot opens with aerial views of American neighborhoods at sunset, cutting to scenes of ICE agents as family men and community members. Narration states: “These are Immigration and Customs Enforcement Officers. They are friends and neighbors, sons, fathers, their little league coaches and veterans… people who love this country. They are removing violent criminals from our streets and neighborhoods. It’s dangerous and difficult work, but ICE has one mission: to make America a safer place to live, and that’s what they’re doing. This is law enforcement. This is ICE.”

The ad comes amid heightened tensions around immigration enforcement, with ICE ramping up deportations of criminal aliens under the Trump administration. The commercial aimed to humanize agents often demonized by open borders advocates, emphasizing their role in removing threats from neighborhoods.

It also comes after Trump advocated a “softer touch” to immigration enforcement.

Leftists wasted no time venting their rage on social media, particularly on X, where unhinged reactions poured in.

These extreme responses highlight the desperation among open borders extremists, who view any support for law enforcement as a threat to their agenda.

This backlash echoes recent moves by prominent leftists to undermine ICE. Just days ago, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announced training sessions for agitators on how to block ICE agents and doxx federal officials.

The Super Bowl ad is part of a larger push by American Sovereignty, which also placed provocative billboards in San Francisco praising ICE as “Defensive Player of the Year.” These efforts coincide with ICE’s intensified operations, including recent raids in Minneapolis that sparked leftist outrage after the shooting of an armed suspect.

Critics like AOC and her allies promote resistance tactics that endanger agents and obstruct justice, all while ignoring the victims of criminal aliens.

Democrats used to be all for immigration enforcement.

As ICE continues its vital work, ads like this one serve as a reminder: enforcing immigration laws isn’t optional – it’s essential to preserving American safety and sovereignty. Leftists can rage all they want, but the tide is turning against unchecked borders and spots like this push back against the madness.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 18:25

LA Taxpayers Spent $418 Million On Homeless Programs In 2025

LA Taxpayers Spent $418 Million On Homeless Programs In 2025

Los Angeles spent about $418 million on homelessness programs in 2025, yet only a small share went toward helping people leave the streets for good, according to the New York Post. A recent City Hall report suggests most of the money supports short-term services that manage homelessness rather than resolve it.

The review, released as the city prepares major budget cuts, shows that hundreds of millions were directed to hygiene facilities, outreach teams, temporary housing, and vehicle-living programs with limited long-term success. These efforts often keep people in transitional situations instead of moving them into permanent homes.

The Post noted that councilwoman Monica Rodriguez condemned the system, saying, “We’re hemorrhaging money on a homelessness system that was never designed to succeed — and no one is being held accountable for the failure.”

She also argued that ineffective programs are protected instead of evaluated: “If we really wanted to do something about this crisis, we would be advancing real oversight, demanding results, and shutting down programs that don’t work — not protecting a system that keeps spending more while delivering less.”

One of the costliest efforts, Inside Safe, places people in motels and temporary housing at prices far above other programs. Rodriguez criticized its management, stating, “We know where a big pot of money is that isn’t being used wisely — and that’s Inside Safe.”

City officials warn that homelessness funding could fall short by nearly $250 million within two years, raising concerns about sustainability. Community advocate John Alle says the spending model focuses too much on services and too little on lasting change. “Services are a band-aid,” he said. “The numbers never go down. There are no results — and no consequences for mismanagement.”

Alle also accused city leaders of limiting public oversight: “We can’t even begin to calculate the total fraud until officials open their books. These are public funds, and they’re hiding from audits and accountability.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 18:00

Jump Trading Eyes Kalshi, Polymarket Stakes As Institutional Interest Grows: Report

Jump Trading Eyes Kalshi, Polymarket Stakes As Institutional Interest Grows: Report

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CoinTelegraph.com,

Jump Trading, a Chicago-based quantitative trading company, is reportedly set to acquire minority stakes in prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, underscoring growing institutional interest in the rapidly expanding sector.

The equity stakes would be obtained in exchange for providing trading liquidity on both platforms, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people familiar with the discussions.

While the report did not disclose specific ownership percentages, Bloomberg said Jump’s stake in Polymarket would scale based on the liquidity the company ultimately provides.

Founded more than two decades ago, Jump Trading has long been a major player in proprietary financial trading and has expanded aggressively into digital assets. It has been active as both a market maker and venture investor in crypto, backing blockchain infrastructure projects and exchanges through its affiliated investment arms.

Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction market platforms, each commanding multibillion-dollar valuations following recent funding rounds.

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Polymarket raised $2 billion from NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange, valuing the company at $9 billion. In early December, Kalshi secured $1 billion in funding at an $11 billion valuation.

While both platforms allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, they operate under different models. Polymarket is a decentralized platform built on the Polygon blockchain that enables onchain settlement of prediction contracts, whereas Kalshi operates as a centralized, federally regulated exchange in the United States.

Polymarket’s monthly volume has surged at the start of 2026. Source: Dune

Prediction markets gain traction, but still face regulatory hurdles

Prediction markets gained mainstream attention after Polymarket’s event contracts accurately forecast the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, highlighting the sector’s potential as a real-time information and risk-pricing tool. Industry analysts now estimate that prediction markets could generate trillions of dollars in annual trading volume by the end of the decade.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, a research and consulting company specializing in the global gambling and gaming industry, has identified sports-related contracts as a major driver of that growth. Speaking to CNBC in December, Eilers & Krejcik partner emeritus Chris Grove said sports betting could account for nearly half of the sector’s projected expansion.

Despite Polymarket’s early lead, Kalshi had largely caught up, with trading volumes at similar levels as of October. Source: Messari

Despite the growth potential, Grove cautioned that legal and regulatory challenges could slow adoption. 

Kalshi, which operates as a federally regulated prediction market, has received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to run as a Designated Contract Market. However, the platform is facing pushback at the state level. Regulators in Nevada, Maryland, New Jersey and Ohio have challenged Kalshi’s offerings, triggering ongoing litigation and cease-and-desist actions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 17:40

"Italian Job" Style Armored Truck Heist Caught On Video In Italy

"Italian Job" Style Armored Truck Heist Caught On Video In Italy

In a scene straight out of The Italian Job movie, local Italian broadcaster Sky TG24 posted a dramatic video on X on Monday that appears to show at least one "armed commando" carrying out a brazen armored truck heist in broad daylight on an Italian highway.

"Moments of fear this morning on the 613 Brindisi-Lecce superstrada, at the Tuturano exit, where an armed commando attacked an armoured cash-in-transit van," the local outlet said.

The Mirror provided more details about the heist:

An armoured van was attacked this morning, local news reports, on State Road 613 in Italy, which connects the cities of Lecce to Brindisi, in the region of Puglia, known as the 'heel of Italy'.

The dramatic clip shows masked men armed with automatic weapons on the highway, believed to be gang members who reportedly going into a firefight with armed officers from the local Carabinieri police force.

. . .

The armoured van, owned by the security company BTV, was forced to stop to avoid the blazing vehicle, giving the crooks, who were using a vehicle with blue flashing lights, posing as an escort to the van, the chance to strike.

It's clear from the video that whoever placed the shaped charge on the side of the armored van to blast a hole in it was a professional.

Authorities have not disclosed what the armored van was transporting, whether it was simply euros or something more valuable. It's also still unclear whether the armed criminal gang managed to secure whatever was inside before fleeing the scene.

Not quite the armored truck heist from The Italian Job remake in 2003 ...

... but it's still one of those scenes that never gets old.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 17:20

Feds Have Charged 158 Anti-ICE Agitators With Federal Crimes In Minnesota

Feds Have Charged 158 Anti-ICE Agitators With Federal Crimes In Minnesota

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Since the start of the Trump administration’s “Operation Metro Surge” in Minnesota, federal prosecutors have reportedly charged 158 anti-ICE agitators with federal crimes, including “FACE Act violations, conspiracy charges, and obstruction of federal agents.” Some of the offenses carry penalties of up to 20 years in prison.

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced last week that she “expect more arrests to come” as the Justice Department is poised to crack down on similar anti-ICE insurgencies nationwide. 

Those arrested in Minnesota include nine agitators who disrupted a church service (including Don Lemon, and a number of “ICE Watch” insurgents who “blocked, assaulted, or attempted to otherwise restrict ICE officers in the state,” according to Fox News.

Bondi last week announced the arrests of 16 Minnesota protesters for “allegedly assaulting federal law enforcement — people who have been resisting and impeding our federal law enforcement agents.” According to a criminal complaint published by the Justice Department, the alleged actions include the use of multiple vehicles to “box in” federal immigration officers; spitting on ICE officers during an arrest; attempting to throw a brick at an ICE officer; and other obstructive and violent actions.

Another 16 individuals have been charged with violating 18 U.S.C. § 111, which punishes anyone who “forcibly assaults, resists, opposes, impedes, intimidates or interferes” with officers engaged in carrying out their official duties.

In one case, an agitator allegedly tailed Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents in his van “before approaching their vehicle with a baseball bat in hand.”

Penalties for a conviction on 18 U.S.C. § 111 range from one to 20 years in prison, depending on the circumstances, including “the involvement of a potentially dangerous weapon and whether bodily injuries were suffered,” Fox reported. The cases could carry longer sentences if additional charges are tacked on.

“People need to understand their actions have consequences and that obstruction, assault and impeding are not protected under the disguise of protesting,” stated John Condon, the acting director of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI).

On Thursday,  the feds also arrested Kyle Wagner, also known as “Antifa Kyle,” the cross-dressing anti-ICE domestic terrorist who threatened to assault, kill and doxx officers in Minneapolis.

Wagner was charged with numerous federal crimes, including Impeding/Retaliating Against a Federal Officer, Threatening Injury to Family, Interstate Domestic Violence, Conspiracy to Impede or Injure an Officer, Solicitation to Commit a Crime of Violence, and Interstate Communications,” the Department of Homeland Security posted on X.

The feds are also investigating the well funded and highly organized shadow network of anti-ICE militants who use the encrypted Signal messaging platform to track, dox and impede federal immigration enforcement officers.

These anti-ICE “digital Minutemen” use military-grade surveillance tactics to track law enforcement across 13 databases, Fox News revealed in an extensive report detailing the seditious operation.

Retired Special Forces Warrant Officer, Eric Schwalm, compared the anti-ICE effort in Minneapolis to the insurgencies he fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“We have an entire nation of collectors against our country’s law enforcement—it’s extremely dangerous,” Schwalm told Fox.

On January 26, FBI Director Kash Patel announced that the Bureau is investigating the “ICE Watch” operation being organized on Signal.

“We immediately opened up that investigation because that sort of Signal chat being coordinated with individuals, not just locally in Minnesota, but maybe even around the country — if that leads to a break in the federal statute or a violation of some law, then we are going to arrest people,” Patel said.

U.S. Border Czar Tom Homan vowed last week that the organizers and funders behind the ICE-hunting groups in Minnesota will be held accountable.

“The organization and funding of attacks on ICE—they will be held accountable, Homan stated. “Justice is coming.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 17:00

Who's Next... What's Next...?

Who's Next... What's Next...?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

It’s all backstage now. This fraught moment, the power-centers locked in the coldest cold of the year, the Spanish language lessons of Bad Bunny behind us, all the real action in the battle to save the country is out of sight, moiling and churning in the deep background. Everybody’s on edge waiting for shoes to drop, praying they don’t drop on their heads.

Bad Bunny’s Superbowl House Party. . . So Long, Been Good to Know Ya!

You should have seen Senator Mark Warner (D-VA; Vice-chair of the Senate Intel Committee) on Face the Nation Sunday, frothing at the mouth over Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence (DNI).

He cannot believe she turned up at the Fulton County, GA, election warehouse last month, where the FBI extracted 700 boxes of ballots and other evidence for what happened there in the 2020 election.

Senator Warner doesn’t want you to find out.

Senator Warner, you understand, is one of the darkest creatures slithering through the cypress knobs of the DC swamp, and his lair, the Senate Intel Committee, is a fetid backwater of seditious intrigue. Senator Warner is setting the stage for yet another hoax against the country. He’s got a “whistleblower,” ID unknown, who supposedly imputes that last spring “an individual associated with foreign intelligence” made a phone call to “a person close to President Trump” and DNI Gabbard failed to report it to his committee.

DNI Gabbard simply called Sen. Warner a liar, which is exactly and succinctly correct.

Senator Warner is wetting his pants because the Georgia 2020 election tally looks sketchy to an extreme and he knows the case is beyond his control now.

Pulling on that thread will unravel the whole fake tapestry of “Joe Biden’s” election and will reveal the Democratic Party to be a criminal enterprise.

The nation itself has to face some unappetizing reality. Four years were stolen from the people and political devices were aligned to destroy the nation. They almost succeeded.

Over in Minnesota the major players are laying low now.

Governor Tim Walz, a creep of the thirty-second degree, surrendered his career weeks ago but nervously awaits indictment for presiding over massive social service fraud. ICE is still extracting psychopathic alien mutts out of Minneapolis, while the Cluster-B ladies and their mentally-ill Antifa spear-carriers remain out in the streets banging on sauce-pans. But somewhere in an office, away from the deafening whistles, the money trails are getting tracked from taxpayers to the Learing Centers to the state’s politicians and the DNC and then off forever into the Horn of Africa. You just can’t see it now.

The giant poisonous amoeba that Jeffrey Epstein became has not yielded all of its secrets.

Everybody knows that there are darker scenes lurking behind the curtain. The rumors are outlandishly horrifying, worse than anything out of Hollywood’s scare factory, a slaughter of the innocents. Who knows if they are true — well, possibly somebody knows, but these would be things you cannot want to know. One thing I’d like to know: why don’t the dozens of so-called “Epstein Survivors,” grown women supposedly raped and abused by celebrities years ago as children, name their abusers publicly? What’s stopping them as they grandstand around the country? Or is it just another grift?

It’s seven o’clock in the morning as I write (and fifteen-below zero), and World War Three has not started yet, though it seems like the whole US Navy and half the Air Force has deployed in the vicinity of Iran: the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, accompanied by guided-missile destroyers USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., USS Spruance and USS Michael Murphy. . . destroyers USS McFaul and USS Mitscher in the Straits of Hormuz. . . littoral combat ships USS Canberra, USS Tulsa, and USS Santa Barbara in the Persian Gulf. . . at least a dozen F-15E Strike Eagles relocated to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan (from RAF base Lakenheath, UK). Additional aircraft like A-10C Thunderbolts noted at regional bases. . . support aircraft, KC-135 Stratotankers for refueling (active at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar), P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and transport/refueling planes (C-17s, etc.), deployed around the region.

You have to wonder whether the regime running Iran has already selected martyrdom rather than yielding anything to forces who are sick of them, including many Iranians.

Iranian missiles are targeted for Tel Aviv, US bases in the Emirates, and possibly even Saudi Arabia. Could be all bluff. The truth of the situation remains hidden, like everything else right now in the global arena.

Down in Fort Pierce, Florida, today, a grand jury will hear more witnesses in the sedition and treason conspiracy carried out by our own government officials since 2016. And being a grand jury, it is all secret, you will not be hearing about it in the news. Like so much else now, the action there is behind the curtain. Too many cynics believe that nothing will come of it. Yet, the blast zone from it, when it comes, will blow at us like a second American Revolution in the 250thanniversary year of the first one.

Different dynamics are aligning now, forces better structured to the survival of our nation. The only thing we know for sure: Bad Bunny has had his fifteen minutes of fame.

Who’s next and what’s next?

Patience, please.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 16:20

Russia Vows 'All Possible Assistance' To Cuba As US 'Strangles' The Population

Russia Vows 'All Possible Assistance' To Cuba As US 'Strangles' The Population

Russia warned Monday that the United States is "strangling" Cuba through long-running sanctions, as well as the current de facto oil blockade on the Latin American island-nation in full force.

As a result the Kremlin is exploring ways to get urgent assistance to the Cuban people, as the economic situation and national infrastructure worsens after Havana's number one energy source, nearby Venezuela, has cut off supplies in the wake of Maduro's ouster by US military intervention.

File image, Havana 

"The situation in Cuba is indeed critical... We are aware of this, and we maintain close contact with our Cuban friends through diplomatic and other channels," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a Monday press briefing.

He added that "the stranglehold imposed by the United States is already causing a lot of difficulties for Cuba" and this has resulted in the two allies discussing "possible ways to resolve these problems or at least provide all possible assistance."

Blackouts across various parts of Cuba have persisted and even grown worse in the last weeks, given power plants are struggling to keep the lights on, as The Associated Press recently described:

The smell of sulfur hits hard in this coastal town that produces petroleum and is home to one of Cuba’s largest thermoelectric plants. Yet, even as the plant cranks back to life, residents remain in the dark, surrounded by energy sources they cannot use.

As tensions deepen between Cuba and the U.S. after it attacked Venezuela and disrupted oil shipments, so have the woes of Santa Cruz del Norte.

People in this town east of Havana are plunged into darkness daily and forced to cook with coal and firewood, but not everyone can afford this new reality.

This is after President Trump in mid-January vowed there will be "zero" oil and outside money going to Cuba, and threatened that its leaders must "make a deal, before it is too late." Washington has labeled the island a "national security threat" to the US - a viewpoint hearkening back to the Cold War.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla has lashed out, saying Cuba faces "a total blockade of energy supplies" by the US, which violates "all principles of international trade," creating "extreme life conditions" for the Cuban population.

The crisis is rapidly impacting various industries, and most recently "Cuba has warned airlines it is suspending jet fuel supplies for a month, an official at a European carrier said Sunday."

Russia isn't the only one rushing aid to the island. Mexico has been pressured to also cut energy supplies, but at the same time President Claudia Sheinbaum has reportedly ordered two Mexican naval vessels to transport over 800 tons of aid, including food and hygiene items, to Cuba.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 15:40

Not Clear Whether Vaccines Cause Autism, Needs More Research; NIH Director Says

Not Clear Whether Vaccines Cause Autism, Needs More Research; NIH Director Says

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The director of the National Institutes of Health said in a new interview that there’s a dearth of high-quality research into vaccines and autism and that the health agency is funding research that will determine the causes of autism.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, the NIH’s director, told EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” in an interview released on Feb. 10 that he has read studies that have found no connection between the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine and autism. Bhattacharya sees the studies as robust.

“For other vaccines, there actually isn’t this kind of rich literature,” he said.

“‘Do vaccines cause autism’ is a poorly formed question,” Bhattacharya added later.

“Do I believe that we know that there are some vaccines that cause autism? The answer—I don’t think that’s true. Do we know for a fact that every single vaccine in the combination it is given doesn’t cause autism? Also, I don’t know that we know that. These are things that are worthy of research.”

A small number of studies have found indications that autism can be caused by vaccines, while others have identified no increased risk in autism following receipt of the measles shot.

Bhattacharya, during a Senate Health Committee hearing on Feb. 3, told Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) that he does not believe autism is caused by the measles vaccine. Sanders pressed for a broader answer.

“I have not seen a study that suggests any single vaccine causes autism,” Bhattacharya said.

President Donald Trump has directed health officials to study autism, noting that more kids than ever are being diagnosed with the disorder. One of the efforts, led by the NIH, is called the Autism Data Science Initiative and involves investing more than $50 million in projects aimed at pinpointing autism causes.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has also said that the government is looking into potential links between autism and vaccines.

“We’ve invested a tremendous amount of money in trying to understand the etiology of autism, because there’s millions of families around the country that have children that ... they would love to be able to help, but we don’t really have great answers, both for the cause and how to sort of reverse whatever problems there are. And of course, there’s a whole range of phenotypes ... ranging from very, very severe autism to much milder, and so you can have different answers and different biology,” Bhattacharya told The Epoch Times.

“We need to have better science underlying all of these conditions, and that’s something I’m investing in to make sure that the next generation of folks who have these conditions will have better answers provided to them.”

A baby after receiving a vaccine for hepatitis B and other diseases, in an undated illustration photograph. Riccardo Milani/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

Bhattacharya also said he views the NIH’s role as funding research that will provide answers to key questions.

“Even if some people think that the question is already settled, if there’s a lot of the population that doesn’t agree, then, in my view, the right, respectful thing to do is to—rather than just to censor them or argue with them to marginalize them—is to provide more, better, scientific answers to the questions that they have,” he said.

Some organizations, such as the American Medical Association, say existing literature makes clear that vaccines do not cause autism. Certain groups maintain that all or many autism cases are caused by genetic factors.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which for years said that vaccines do not cause autism, said in 2025 that the available evidence does not support that stance.

Kennedy has said multiple times that the available studies are poorly designed and do not disprove a vaccine-autism link.

Some parents of children with autism say that their children were harmed by vaccines, and the government vaccine injury program has paid families who suffered problems associated with autism following vaccination. Researchers with Children’s Health Defense, founded by Kennedy, said in a Jan. 31 paper that epidemiological and other evidence demonstrate that aluminum in vaccines can trigger autism in certain people.

“I don’t know the answer,” Bhattacharya said in the new interview.

“I don’t understand how people can so confidently say they know what the answer [is] for a biological condition that is so heterogeneous and [has] so many different hypotheses. That’s the way I’ve been approaching it.”

The CDC recently downgraded recommendations for six vaccines to shared clinical-decision making, or advising parents to consult with doctors before having their children vaccinated, while keeping in place routine recommendations for the measles vaccine and seven other shots. Bhattacharya said that he favors vaccinating children with most of the vaccines recommended by the government, because they protect against infectious diseases.

“Now it may be that for some kids with different kinds of susceptibility in different areas, there’s going to be some risk, and you have to take that into account,” he said. “And so there should be a sort of a shared decision-making kind of thing for vaccinations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 15:20

Democrat Lawmakers Seek Pentagon Probe Of SpaceX Over Potential China-Linked Investment

Democrat Lawmakers Seek Pentagon Probe Of SpaceX Over Potential China-Linked Investment

Authored by Sean Tsang via The Epoch Times,

Two senators are urging the Pentagon to find out whether investors tied to China hold stakes in SpaceX, one of America’s most important defense contractors and a key provider of military launch services.

In a Feb. 5 letter to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said recently unsealed court records and media reports raise concern about whether Chinese money reached SpaceX through intermediaries and offshore entities.

“These [alleged] ties could pose a national security threat, potentially jeopardizing key military, intelligence, and civilian infrastructure,” they wrote.

The senators argue it could trigger U.S. safeguards meant to keep foreign adversaries from gaining leverage over companies that handle sensitive national security work.

Warren and Kim cited media reports describing a market for SpaceX shares that allegedly included Chinese investors, sometimes using middlemen and structures in places such as the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

A Delaware court last year backed a fund manager’s decision to remove a Chinese investor from a fund set up to buy SpaceX shares, according to court filings.

Iqbaljit Kahlon, who managed the fund, had admitted Leo Investments, a publicly traded Chinese company, as a limited partner.

SpaceX told Kahlon the fund could not purchase shares if Leo remained involved, prompting him to remove the investor and return its $50 million. The fund was structured as a special-purpose vehicle (SPV), a common way for investors to pool money to buy shares in private companies like SpaceX. SPVs let multiple investors combine capital into a single ownership stake, making it easier to trade smaller slices of stock without the company having to deal with a large number of individual shareholders.

In the letter, the senators said that as SpaceX is privately held, the public can’t see how much of the company is owned by China-linked investors or whether any such holdings are large enough to influence the company.

In April 2025, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a National Security Space Launch Phase 3 “Lane 2 contract” with an anticipated value of about $5.9 billion, and it projected SpaceX would receive 28 missions—around 60 percent of those Phase 3 Lane 2 missions over fiscal years 2025 through 2029.

Space Force’s “Lane 2” missions are its highest-priority launches, carrying the most demanding, least risk-tolerant national security payloads—often major military and intelligence satellites—into harder-to-reach or higher-energy orbits with complex security and integration requirements.

The senators warned that Chinese investors could “potentially gain access to nonpublic information about the company, including ‘details on its contracts or supply chain,’ giving China access to information and technology that could undermine US national security.”

The Epoch Times reached out to SpaceX and the Department of Defense for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Review

The senators said their concerns merit the Pentagon to conduct a Foreign Ownership, Control, or Influence (FOCI) mitigation review.

The Pentagon’s security arm, the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency (DCSA), defines a company as operating under FOCI when a foreign interest has the power—directly or indirectly—to shape management or operations in a way that could enable unauthorized access to classified information or harm performance on classified contracts.

SpaceX launches the Falcon 9 Fram2 Mission from Launch Complex 39A of NASAÕs Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla., on March 31, 2025. Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/Getty Images

The DCSA says it evaluates factors such as the extent of foreign ownership—including “substantial minority” positions—and the foreign government’s record on espionage and technology transfer.

The senators also asked the War Department to coordinate with the Treasury to consider whether any China-linked investments should be reviewed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), the interagency panel authorized to review certain foreign investment transactions for national security risk.

They requested a response by Feb. 20, and asked the War Department to answer questions such as: how many SpaceX shares are owned by China-linked and other adversary-linked investors, whether any such investors have access to nonpublic information, and whether SpaceX is subject to FOCI mitigation requirements.

Policy Backdrop

The lawmakers framed the request against the Trump administration’s “America First Investment Policy.”

The policy explicitly calls China a foreign adversary and warns that the country can use both visible and concealed investment routes—sometimes via third-country funds—to pursue sensitive technologies and strategic leverage.

The Chinese investment ties are “at odds with the administration’s policies on foreign investment from countries of concern in strategic industries,” the senators wrote.

They also said that the matter became “even more salient” after SpaceX announced it had acquired xAI, expanding the combined company’s footprint across AI, rockets, and satellite connectivity.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 14:40

Lavrov's Rare Rebuke Of Trump: In Reality, Relations No Better Than Under Biden

Lavrov's Rare Rebuke Of Trump: In Reality, Relations No Better Than Under Biden

The Kremlin has lashed out at the Trump administration in a rare moment, revealing its impatience and dissatisfaction with the way trilateral talks focused on ending the Ukraine war are going. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a fresh interview also accused Washington of sabotaging efforts to improve bilateral relations while undermining negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The charge is ironic, given it is typically the West which mounts the same accusation at Moscow.

"Despite all the statements by the Trump administration about the need to end the war… it does not challenge all the laws that Joe Biden passed to punish Russia after the start of the special military operation," Lavrov said in an interview with TV BRICS.

Getty Images

"In practice, the opposite is happening: new sanctions are being imposed, a war is being waged against tankers on the high seas, in violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea," he said in reference to recent actions involving the US seizing shadow fleet tankers.

The Trump administration also slapped sanctions on the two Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft - in a controversial action last fall.

Moscow is also likely disappointed that President Trump hasn't pressured Zelensky into making serious territorial concessions using the significant leverage Washington has over Kiev.

Lavrov asserted that Trump reneged on certain "understandings" reached directly with President Putin at the Anchorage summit in August.

"Beyond what they claimed to offer on Ukraine … we also see no positive outlook on the economic front," Lavrov said in the interview. "Washington, in our view, is seeking control over global energy supply routes serving major economies across multiple continents."

Russia wants to cooperate with the US toward achieving peace, Lavrov continued, but he went on to say that "the Americans themselves are creating artificial obstacles on this path" - or in essence, sabotaging peace.

This kind of criticism by Russia has typically been reserved only for Europe. EU leaders have remained much more out in the open in terms of imposing extra 'obstacles' and conditions on US-proposed peace measures. So this kind of directly taking aim at Trump is a break from past rhetoric. 

On Europe and its newly investing in defense, Lavrov has said, "We have no intention of attacking Europe. There is no reason to do so."

"If Europe acts on its threats to prepare for war against us and initiates an attack on the Russian Federation, it will face a full-fledged military response from our side, with all available military capabilities," the Russian top diplomat added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 14:20

The Inevitable Reversal: When Speculative Narratives Don't Hold

The Inevitable Reversal: When Speculative Narratives Don't Hold

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that “this time is different.” Bitcoin, precious metals, and AI-linked equities rose not only because of robust fundamentals, but also because investors clung to powerful narratives about inflation, disruption, and monetary collapse. Those speculative narratives are not only seductive but also contribute to investment behaviors that obscure reality.

Bitcoin was cast as “digital gold,” a hedge against a largely false tale of a weakening dollar and fiscal instability. Gold and silver were likewise falsely elevated as defensive stores of value in a monetary regime supposedly at risk of losing purchasing power. AI stocks became shorthand for a new productivity supercycle where profits would follow indefinitely rising valuations. These speculative narratives are fine and drive bull markets in the near term. As John Maynard Keynes once quipped: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,” and those narratives are potent as they frame expectations and justify positions.

However, these speculative narratives have little to do with economic or fundamental realities that will ultimately drive outcomes. In markets, stories don’t replace valuation. As I noted previously, when “valuation metrics are excessive… it is a better measure of investor psychology than fundamentals.” That means price becomes more about sentiment than business results, and we see that in the relationship between consumer sentiment about stock prices over the next 12 months and valuations.

“This broad wave of bullish behavior isn’t isolated to sentiment surveys. Positioning data, equity fund inflows, and trading behavior confirm the lack of bears in the market. Markets are rising not because of strong earnings or economic acceleration, but because of optimism about future prices. In this environment, price momentum drives buying, not fundamentals. We see that in the overlay of consumer sentiment about higher prices versus valuations. Simply, investors are willing to overpay on expectations that things will continue to improve.”

This shift from fundamentals to “belief-based investing” creates a market lubricated by emotion, especially in risk assets with no tangible earnings or cash flow drivers. In AI equities, some names traded on lofty price-to-sales ratios divorced from earnings prospects. In crypto, price discovery was often based on sentiment momentum rather than adoption metrics or utility. Even the spike in gold and silver prices did not reflect changes in industrial demand or monetary policy fundamentals, but the false narrative of a coming “currency collapse.”

These speculative narratives are classic hallmarks of a mania: the story, not the data, becomes the primary driver of price.

Leverage: The Hidden Engine of Mania

Of course, it is not just faulty speculative narratives that move markets. The narratives only motivate investor behavior, but for that behavior to have an impact, investors must have the capital to invest. Notably, as the narratives take hold, investors put their capital to work. However, as the narratives gain momentum, leverage accelerates those behaviors into extremes. As we noted recently:

“However, this surge in allocations has also been accompanied by a massive expansion in leverage. Currently, margin debt as a percentage of real DPI has been reported at around 6.23 %, the highest on record. This ratio also suggests that for every $100 of real DPI, roughly $6 of margin debt is outstanding, a substantial amount. But that number doesn’t include the additional leverage taken on by investors through speculative option trading and 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs, which are also being bought on margin.”

However, it is crucial to remember that “margin debt is not a technical indicator… it represents the amount of speculation in the market.” When speculative narratives take hold, margin buying gives investors more purchasing power, driving prices higher, amplifying gains, and leading to further leverage. Unfortunately, the eventual and inevitable unwind also works in reverse, amplifying losses when prices decline.

But leverage did not stop at margin balances. Investors embraced:

  • Ultra‑short dated options strategies that carry outsized leverage.

  • Leveraged ETFs offering 2x or 3x exposure to narrow segments of the market.

  • Futures and crypto margin accounts that magnified directional bets.

All these instruments enabled investors, particularly vastly inexperienced and unwitting retail traders, to assume exposures far beyond what cash capital would normally permit. The result was, and is always, an increasingly unstable structure in which valuations rose not because of business performance, but because leverage and sentiment chased headlines higher.

Unfortunately, in the end, fundamental and economic realities take hold, and speculative narratives fail to hold.

The Inevitable Reversal: When Narratives Don’t Hold

There is an old saying that “Markets don’t die of old age—they die of excess.” That statement doesn’t only apply to the stock market; it applies to every market, asset class, and investment. For example, over the last few years, there has been a mad rush by high-net-worth investors to enter private credit markets. As the assets under management for these funds rose, the managers increasingly invested in weaker deals, pushed credit risk limits, and overlooked fundamentals. As we warned last year, the redemptions of private credit are now accelerating as concerns over stability and illiquidity rise.

What triggered the reversal last week was not some dramatic policy shift, economic upheaval, or credit-related event, but a gradual shift in conditions that exposed the overextension. Softening economic signals, slowing earnings growth in tech sectors, and fading headline narratives removed the justification for trend extrapolation.

As we often discuss with our readers, when speculation is the driver, these reversals are a feature, not a bug, of the system.

What we saw last week started in Bitcoin, spread to precious metals, and then jumped into the equities market. As prices fall, margin calls force deleveraging, requiring liquidations to cover positions. Crucially, margin calls force the liquidation of positions regardless of investors’ desire to hold. That’s why downturns in highly leveraged markets tend to be sharp and fast.

“When lenders fear they may not recoup their credit lines, they force the borrower to sell assets to cover the debt … margin calls generally happen simultaneously, as falling asset prices impact all lenders at once.”

This sequence flips the entire narrative-driven rally. What was once perceived as a hedge or growth trend becomes a crowded trade that unwinds in chaos. Prices can and often do detach from valuation pressures as forced selling begets further selling.

The investor lesson is that speculative behavior always rewards the buyer on the way up, but punishes brutally on the way down.

The Real Lessons for Investors—Especially Younger Ones

What happened should wake up investors, but especially younger ones who have known only bull markets or narrative-driven rallies.

  • Narratives are not strategies.

  • Leverage is not risk management.

  • Volatility is not optional.

Valuation matters. Yes, markets move on liquidity and leverage in the short term, but in the long term, prices must align with earnings, cash flows, and economic reality. Investing based on stories of doom, disruption, or currency collapse, without a grounding in fundamentals, eventually leads to capital destruction.

Speculation disguised as investing is a losing proposition. Excessive trading, especially in leveraged instruments, turns portfolio management into a directional bet rather than a systematic allocation. When speculative bets in the markets via options, leveraged assets, and margin surge, that is a warning, not a reassurance.

For younger investors watching this unfold, there are several enduring principles:

  • Don’t confuse confidence with experience. High conviction during a rally is a natural byproduct. But that conviction often precedes drawdowns, particularly when leverage and risk tolerance are high.

  • Diversification is real only when exposures are uncorrelated. Owning Bitcoin, gold, and AI stocks doesn’t diversify if they all behave like leveraged growth bets driven by the same sentiment.

  • Manage risk first. Heavy allocation to speculative positions without defensive hedges is not investing—it’s gambling.

  • Leverage amplifies outcomes in both directions. You may win big for a time, but the downside can be catastrophic.

  • Accept corrections as necessary. Pullbacks purify excesses and restore market health. Markets that seem like they will never correct often suffer the worst crashes later, think dot‑com and housing bubbles.

The lure of quick gains is powerful. However, real wealth accumulates through disciplined risk management, valuation awareness, and systematic portfolio construction. If you are a younger investor, market speculation is a powerful drug when you are successful. However, if you can limit your urges and transition from short‑term performance chasing to a long‑term mindset that prioritizes capital preservation, your ability to accumulate and maintain vast wealth expands.

This isn’t bearishness for its own sake. It’s an empirical recognition that markets are cyclical and leverage is structural.

The most successful investors are those who prepare for both runs and reversals, not just the runs. Therefore, the next time you scoff at those not “chasing the latest speculative fad,” maybe ask yourself, “Why aren’t they chasing it?”

It might just save you from heartache.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 14:00

Gun Rights Group Slams California Ghost Gun Lawsuit For "Criminalizing Law-Abiding Citizens"

Gun Rights Group Slams California Ghost Gun Lawsuit For "Criminalizing Law-Abiding Citizens"

California Attorney General Rob Bonta has filed a lawsuit against two out-of-state companies and more than 100 individuals, accusing them of distributing computer code that lets people 3D-print their own firearms - a case critics say pits the right to bear arms and free speech against Sacramento’s latest gun-control crusade.

In a San Francisco Superior Court filing on Feb. 6, Bonta and San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu allege Florida-based Gatalog Foundation Inc. and CTRLPew LLC unlawfully distributed digital blueprints and computer code used to manufacture hundreds of “ghost guns” and banned accessories like Glock switches and illegal high-capacity magazines.

The complaint claims defendants made available over 150 designs for weapons and components that can be 3D printed at home - including frames, receivers, and suppressors - without serial numbers or background checks. California law already bars unlicensed firearm manufacture, background check-skipping schemes, and, more recently, distributing the code that makes it all possible.

According to the complaint, California laws "specifically prohibit 3D printing firearms and prohibited firearm accessories without a license to manufacture firearms, and since 2023, has also prohibited the distribution of computer code for printing them to those without a license."

"Dangerous Untraceables," Says Bonta

Bonta claims that people making their own guns constitutes a "public safety crisis," as law enforcement seizures of ghost guns in the state skyrocketed from 26 in 2015 to an average of 11,000 per year since 2021. Prosecutors argue ghost guns bypass serials, background checks and traditional gun-safety measures, making them a magnet for people prohibited from possessing guns.

“These defendants’ conduct enables unlicensed people who are too young or too dangerous to pass firearm background checks to illegally print deadly weapons without a background check and without a trace,” Bonta said in the press release.

But gun-rights advocates argue there’s more to the story.

"The Second Amendment protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms - and that right does not disappear because California dislikes how a firearm is made," Gun Owners of America Senior VP Erich Pratt told ZeroHedge. "For generations, Americans have lawfully built firearms for personal use. This lawsuit doesn’t target criminals; it targets constitutionally protected conduct and even speech itself. You don’t defend public safety by gutting the Second Amendment and criminalizing law-abiding citizens. Criminals will continue to ignore the law, as they always have.":

Hobbyists or Criminal Enablers?

Among the named defendants is gun-rights attorney Matthew Larosiere - long a voice for hobbyists who argue it’s been legal for Americans to build firearms for personal use so long as they obey federal law. Critics of the lawsuit, including analysts in the gun-rights community, say this latest action blurs the line between hobby and crime and could chill lawful expression and innovation.

A person holds a 3D-printed ghost gun during a statewide gun buyback event held by the office of the New York State Attorney General in the Brooklyn borough of New York on April 29, 2023. Yuki Iwamura/AFP via Getty Images

Indeed, the complaint’s own exhibits show some files are labeled with names like FGC-9 - shorthand for “F** Gun Control”* - and include detailed step-by-step instructions with shopping lists and recommended printer settings that make it easy even for beginners to produce frames compatible with common commercial parts.

To opponents, the lawsuit isn’t just about public safety - it’s about free speech and the right to arms. The digital codes at issue are arguably analogous to protected technical speech, and their suppression raises alarms in a state already notorious for some of the strictest gun laws in the nation.

A Patchwork of Law Meets Cutting-Edge Tech

California has been tightening its grip on ghost guns for years, adding prohibitions on 3D-printed firearms and the distribution of associated digital files only in the past few election cycles. At the federal level, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld regulations on ghost guns in 2025, underscoring the legal complexity around homemade weapons.

Elsewhere, courts have diverged. In Minnesota, for example, a state Supreme Court ruled that older firearms lacking serial numbers aren’t automatically criminal — a nod to common-sense recoil against overbroad interpretation of serialization laws.

What’s Next?

California is seeking an injunction to halt distribution of the files and other relief. Gatalog and CTRLPew didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment, but gun-rights groups are already lining up to challenge this on constitutional grounds.

Whether you see DIY firearm blueprints as a dangerous loophole or a legitimate exercise of liberty, one thing is clear: this lawsuit marks a high-stakes test of how far states can go in regulating code, guns, and the rights of citizens in the digital age.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 13:40

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