Goldman: Four Questions Investors Are Asking About Walmart 

At the start of September, Goldman hosted its 32nd annual Global Retailing Conference, followed by last week's technology forum. It's been a packed first half of the month for Goldman analysts, who have been busy digesting comments from corporate executives and sharing key takeaways with clients on how business leaders see the evolving world. 

On Monday, Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane penned a note for clients about the four key questions investors had following Walmart's appearances at its retail and technology conferences.

McShane noted that the mega-retailer is on track to deliver stronger-than-expected results in both the near term and the long term. She expects Walmart to sustain top-line growth of at least 4% while expanding operating income at a high-single- to low-double-digit pace.

She also highlighted that profitability in US e-commerce, which turned positive in the first quarter and doubled in the second, is being driven by lower delivery costs and growth in alternative revenue streams such as its marketplace, data ventures, media unit, and WMT+ subscription service. 

McShane maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock, with a 12-month price target of $114.

Here are the four most critical questions investors were asking about Walmart following the conferences:

1. How is Walmart's competitive positioning v. Amazon, especially when it comes to delivery?

Walmart, while acknowledging Amazon as a formidable competitor, is confident that their combination of value, its fresh and produce merchandise offering and its speed are key differentiators to their competitive position. Walmart can deliver to 94% of US households in 3 hours or less, with the company expecting that to expand to 95% by year-end. Looking at scheduled deliveries, which are a large part of Walmart's business, about one-third are fast (3 hours or less), with 25% of fast deliveries now occurring in 30 minutes. Walmart has observed that when customers utilize fast delivery, their frequency starts to increase and their basket composition often changes; while many customers start with fresh food, after using fast delivery, they may also purchase general merchandise (i.e., fashion, home goods).

2. How is Walmart's marketplace differentiated both for buyers and sellers?

A key differentiator for Walmart's marketplace versus peers is its grocery offering, given that grocery items move the fastest and Walmart is the largest grocer in the US. To further differentiate themselves from others the company is now displaying select Marketplace seller items in stores, with a QR code to order the item through the Walmart app. These codes allow customers to access digital tools, services and an extended online assortment. Walmart is bringing the extended Marketplace aisle into stores, starting with a few items on display. Customers can purchase through the Walmart app and even have their items professionally installed. And finally for sellers, they offer two services; Walmart Fulfillment System and Data Ventures. When a seller joins the Walmart Fulfillment System, it helps lift a seller's GMV 50% on average. Data ventures can provide sellers with valuable insights on their selling trends.

Per management, there is a symbiotic relationship between eCommerce and WMT's higher margin businesses (i.e., advertising, data, membership, marketplace, fulfillment); as eCommerce grows, WMT has a greater opportunity to expand these higher margin businesses, and the company can reinvest those dollars into experience and price.

3. What consumer trends are Walmart seeing?

US consumer behavior has been generally consistent. In 2Q, WMT saw ongoing share gains across key categories and all income cohorts, with upper income households contributing the largest gains. The company is seeing strong demand from middle to upper income consumers, while the middle to lower income has experienced a bit of stress, calling out a behavioral change around items with higher costs due to tariffs. That said, consumers have held up well, and WMT expects to see similar trends for the balance of the year. In terms of quarter-to-date trends, WMT started this quarter with similar strength on the top line, noting that 2Q trends are extending into 3Q.

Insights from HundredX

We supplement our work with data from HundredX, a mission-based data and insights company that takes an innovative approach to monitoring consumer perceptions and gathering consumer feedback to understand trends across 80+ industries and 3,000+ brands. HundredX analyzes collective opinions of everyday customers and evaluates how their priorities influence purchasing decisions and attitudes toward businesses and brands.

4. How is Walmart thinking about price in 2H?

In the US, inflation is in the +LSD range, following price increases in food categories for multiple years now. Looking to general merchandise, prices went up as supply chains were stretched after the pandemic, which was followed by a decline in prices. In the current tariff environment, WMT has seen a gradual increase in cost levels in general merchandise, leading to single-digit inflation. Per management, the elasticity response has been better than expected, noting that when prices go up, units go down correspondingly, but consumers move from one item or category to another as prices change. As of the end of July, about one-third of WMT's assortment would have had a price change, and by the time of 1Q26, it is expected be the full base. When tariffs became a possibility, WMT started value engineering its 3Q/4Q assortment, taking out costs and holding prices when possible. Per management, WMT's price gaps remain consistent, noting that the company made investments a few years ago to establish a position and has maintained that. Looking at the GS grocery pricing survey (ran by Leah Jordan), price gaps for WMT widened in August to -13.6%, versus an average of -11.9% for the last 12 months indicating to us that WMT is focused on providing more value through food in order to keep overall prices low for the consumer and take more share.

These questions come as Walmart shares have gained 15% year-to-date, though the stock remains below the peak reached in mid-February.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:40

Dr Strangecurve

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As Christian Lawrence notes in ‘Under Pressure’, we expect a 25bps rate cut today. However, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, this is “the strangest Fed meeting in years” as “Consequential and contentious debates over the path ahead on rates are playing out under the glare of extraordinary political drama.” Indeed, to project dots, might future Fed meetings look like The Apprentice?

Or could it be the War Room from Dr Strangelove? To quote General Clemenceau as quoted in that movie, “War is too important to be left to the generals.” If so, when do we do monetary policy too? “Gentlemen, you can’t set rates in here! This is the FOMC Room!” That development would make the next Fed Chair ‘Dr Strangecurve’… which gold is of course pricing for.

Meanwhile, the Great Game continues to come into sharper focus in global War Rooms for those not staring too hard at lines on their Bloomberg screens.

The SCMP headline today is, ‘As the US retreats, can Xi Jinping’s new initiative shape the future world order?’ They add, “Analysts say the Global Governance Initiative reflects China’s ambitions to shape a multipolar world, but it needs more substance to avoid becoming an ‘empty shell’.”

That’s as ‘Greenland’s defenses are being bolstered against Russia and China, but Trump may be the real target’ (CNN) – I’m sure the Pentagon is terrified if so; the US warned Canada of potential negative consequences if it dumps F-35 fighter jets; Israel presented Syria with a proposal for a new security agreement, which it hasn’t yet replied to; and Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu have refused to sign the defense treaties with Australia it had drawn up for them.

In short, the boundaries of emergent geopolitical blocs continue to be thrashed out in real time alongside those of the matching geoeconomics.

There, the SCMP claims a Trump China trip many hinge on Boeing and soybean deals and that “significant progress” has been made. Recall the Farce One Trade Deal which was an irrelevant thing in markets nearly six years ago? It’s unlikely to play out again, even as Trump extended TikTok’s deadline as US investors seem set to take 80% control of it while the actual algorithm stays with China.

Rather, the US is beginning the review of trade deal with Canada and Mexico – expect far stronger measures to ringfence US production in some key sectors and guidance on transshipment from outside the bloc. PM Carney reportedly told Anglo American to move its HQ to Canada for the Teck deal approval, which is Anglo American in the broadest sense. The UK has paused its push for a 0% US tariff on steel, which it makes very little of, as PM Starmer prefers to lock in a “permanent” 25% rate, but the Trump state visit is going to see US tech giants pledge billions for UK AI infrastructure. Moreover, the US government will start a multibillion mining initiative for critical minerals via the IDFC and hedge fund Orion.

The EU and Indonesia are set to agree a trade deal next week, which the Financial Times claims is to “seek to reduce reliance on the US.” Except both economies want to be net exporters, so won’t import much from the other, especially against public protests and political populism, and both signed trade deals with the US which don’t allow them to export anything to it they import in volume from China. As such, an EU-Indonesia trade deal is still a step towards a US-centric trading bloc. Just don’t expect many headlines saying so from Brussels or Jakarta.

The EU will reportedly adopt new sanctions against Israel today, which could involve removing trade privileges. As the EU runs hefty trade and services surpluses with Israel, that could mean it takes the larger economic blow should things escalate, while Israel is a key source of defence tech, such as Iron Dome, that a Europe trying to rearm rapidly may have to buy from the US, which will continue to work with Israel, or duplicate domestically at higher cost, and much more slowly.

In Australia, Khapra beetle, a threat to grains industry, was just discovered in imported nappy pants. Moreover, a top cyber expert says, “China could disable or detonate Aussie EVs.” He notes, “Take off the safety features of household batteries so that they overcharge. Take off those same safety features for electric vehicles. Just turn them off from the manufacturer so that those vehicles explode,” and argues the nature of war isn’t changing, but technology is. Of course that’s just paranoia or is only for Aussie EVs… right?

In markets, the recently fired US BLS chief has just called her dismissal a “dangerous step”, claiming she wanted to modernize federal statistics but the agency “got caught in DOGE’s crosshairs.” Well, now there are lots of crosshairs to get caught in, or so it seems. How many of them are the BLS taking into account? Indeed, while timely and accurate economic data are regarded as essential, in a contested geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, will it be in the best interests of governments to share them?

For those quoting Dr Strangelove’s “Of course, the whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret! Why didn’t you tell the world, eh?”, or shrieking “because markets!”, have you noticed what’s happened with some key data series in China in recent years, or in Russia since the war started? Logically, would you share targetable signs of economic weakness or strength via online data platforms that the other side can read and model as its leisure? Do you show other market players your books?

If not, what makes you sure you will see the real numbers going forwards as the West embraces more bloc-based realpolitik neo-mercantilism? More darkly, what makes you think you do now - “because markets”?

Over to you, Dr Strangecurve.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:20

General Mills Beats On Profit, Reaffirms Outlook Amid Sluggish Sales And At-Home Dining Trend

General Mills reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street's expectations, driven by a divestiture gain, despite slower sales. The maker of Cheerios and Blue Buffalo reaffirmed its full-year outlook, cautioning that EPS will remain under pressure as it invests to reignite volume-driven organic net sales growth. Notably, GIS executives have warned about a continued shift toward consumers eating at home rather than spending at restaurants. This is troubling news as the back-to-school season gets underway and the holiday shopping season begins in about two and a half months.

Besides Cheerios and Blue Buffalo, GIS also controls other top brands, including Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Betty Crocker, Nature Valley, and Yoplait. It delivered better-than-expected EPS and margin despite broad sales declines, with strength in International offset by weakness in North America Retail and Pet. 

GIS Q1 Highlights (using Bloomberg Consensus data) 

Earnings: Adjusted EPS $0.86 (vs. $1.07 y/y), topping estimates of $0.82.

Margins: Adjusted gross margin 34.2% (vs. 35.4% y/y), above 33.4% consensus.

Sales: Net sales $4.52B, down 6.8% y/y, in line with estimates.

• North America Retail: $2.63B (-13% y/y, in line).

• Foodservice: $516.7M (-3.6% y/y, slightly above).

• Pet: $610M (+5.9% y/y, below est. $622.6M).

• International: $760.2M (+6% y/y, above est. $736.3M).

Organic Performance

Organic net sales down 3% (vs. -2.9% est).

• North America Retail -5% (vs. -4.8% est).

• Pet -5% (vs. -2.9% est).

• Foodservice +1% (vs. +0.2% est).

• International +4% (vs. +2.4% est)

Organic sales volume -1 pt (in line).

Organic price/mix -2 pts (vs. -1.8% est).

GIS reaffirmed its full-year outlook for adjusted EPS to decline as much as 15% and organic sales between -1% to 1%.

GIS FY26 Outlook

• Reaffirmed organic net sales guidance: -1% to +1% (vs. -1.07% consensus).

• Maintains forecast for adjusted EPS to decline 10–15% in constant currency.

• Expects adjusted operating profit down 10–15% in constant currency.

Food and beverage companies have faced lower volumes and softer demand as cash-strapped shoppers seek value.

One way consumers have tightened budgets is by buying more food for home rather than dining out. This trend began during the inflation surge under the Biden-Harris regime several years ago. Although inflation has eased during Trump's second term, some consumers continue to cook at home.

"General Mills has said a rise in cooking at home among value-conscious consumers struggling with inflation has helped boost some of its staples, including rice and beans," Bloomberg noted, adding, "Still, shoppers who are anxious about the economy have been cautious with their spending and turned to private-label options and smaller package sizes." 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 11:05

WTI Extends Gains AFter Biggest Crude Build In 3 Months

Oil prices leaked lower overnight after a three-day advance as traders assess the fallout from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision later Wednesday.

WTI was trading around  $64.50 a barrel after gaining 3.2% in the previous three sessions. Ukraine attacked the Saratov refinery in its latest strike on Russian energy facilities - which have helped cut the OPEC+ member’s production to its lowest post-pandemic level, according to Goldman Sachs.

A big crude draw reported by API overnight will prompt some buying pressure if confirmed by the official EOA data.

API

• Crude -3.42mm (-1.6mm exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline -691k

• Distillates +1.9mm

DOE

• Crude -9.285mm - biggest build since June

• Cushing -296k

• Gasoline -2.347mm

• Distillates +4.046mm

US crude stocks plunged over 9 million barrels last week (far greater than expected and the biggest draw since June). Gasoline inventories also saw a drawdown while distillates stocks rose for the 3rd straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Even accounting for the 504k barrel addition to the SPR, total US commercial crude stocks saw their second biggest weekly decline in 15 months...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production remains near record highs as the decline the rig count has finally stalled...

Source: Bloomberg

The recent gains haven’t been enough to push oil out of the $5 band it has been in for most of the past month-and-a-half, buffeted between geopolitical tensions and bearish fundamentals.

The accelerated return of OPEC+ supply has boosted predictions that a glut will form later in the year, while surging oil tanker earnings are offering a sign of higher output.

WTI has extended its gains from overnight weakness and is trading just in the green on the day...

Oil markets are focused on Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, as well as the wider risk of escalation following a drone incursion into Poland last week, said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Plc.

“We think a 25 basis-point Fed cut is priced in, but a 50 basis-point surprise would be further risk-on for markets,” Ashford said in reference to the imminent Fed decision.

Oil's implied volatility was subdued after it fell to the lowest in more than three weeks on Monday, as outright prices remain firmly stuck within the narrow range seen since early August.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:37

Bank Of Canada Resumes Rate Cuts After 6 Month Pause

The Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.50%, as expected. This was the 8th consecutive rate cut since the easing cycle started one year ago, and took place after the bank paused following its last rate cut in March, 6 months ago.

Governor Tiff Macklem said that while "considerable uncertainty remains", there was a "clear consensus" within the committee for the first rate cut since March, as slowing population gains and a weak labor market were a drag on consumption while the economy was weaker and there was "less upside risk to inflation." The BoC head explained that the "Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward." Additionally, he noted the upward pressure on CPI has diminished.

The BoC removed the language from the prior statement which said, "if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate".

Some more highlights from the report: 

Trade

• Through the recent period of trade upheaval. Governing Council has been proceeding carefully, paying particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Tariffs are having a profound effect on several key sectors, including the auto, steel and aluminum industries. Chinese tariffs on canola, pork and seafood, new US tariffs on copper, and higher US tariffs on softwood lumber will spread the direct impacts further.
• After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing.

Economy

• The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.
• There were some signs of resilience: consumption was stronger than expected in the second quarter and housing activity increased.
• Canada's GDP declined by about VA% in Q2, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity.
• Exports fell by 27% in Q2, a sharp reversal from 01 when Cos. were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs.
• Business investment also declined in Q2, while consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace.
• In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.

Inflation:

• Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated.

Ahead:

• Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity.
• Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties.
• GC will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships.

In summary: the BoC cut rates by 25bps as expected, with Governor Macklem noting a "clear consensus" to ease policy. The accompanying statement stated that the reduction was appropriate given the weaker economy and fewer upside risks to inflation. Additionally, the board judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. On the trade front, policymakers remain cautious over the risks stemming from US tariff actions. Moving forward. The Bank will continue to assess the risks, look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.

In immediate kneejerk response, the USDCAD rose modestly from 1.3760 to a session high of 1.3770 before retracing some of the move with much of the decision in line with expectations. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:14

Lyft Shares Rise Above Multi-Year Trading Range On Waymo Nashville Partnership 

News of a new partnership in the robotaxi industry just hit the wires: Lyft and Waymo are joining forces to expand autonomous ride-hailing in Nashville starting in 2026. Lyft shares jumped in New York on the news. Waymo, a private subsidiary of Alphabet, will supply the autonomous vehicles to operate on Lyft's Flexdrive fleet management platform, which will handle maintenance, charging, depot operations, and overall vehicle optimization.

At launch, rides will be available first through the Waymo app, with integration into Lyft's app planned later this year. This new dynamic marketplace will enable Waymo vehicles to serve riders on both platforms, enhancing fleet utilization while supporting Lyft's hybrid model, which combines human-driven vehicles and robotaxis. 

"Riders will have the opportunity to hail Waymo's fully autonomous vehicles first on the Waymo app, with plans to also dispatch its fleet on Lyft's network for matched rides later in 2026," Lyft wrote in a press release. 

Lyft is expected to support the rollout by building out a dedicated AV fleet management facility in the Nashville metro area, ensuring high uptime and lower operating costs. 

Executives from both companies highlighted the partnership was a perfect fit, with Lyft CEO David Risher stating: 

"This partnership brings together best-in-class autonomous vehicles with best-in-class customer experience. Waymo has proven that its autonomous technology works at scale. When combined with Lyft's customer-obsession and world-class fleet management capabilities, it's two great tastes that go great together."

Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana stated: 

"We're delighted to partner with Lyft and launch in Nashville next year, as we continue to scale our Waymo ride-hailing service to more people in more places. Lyft's extensive fleet management capabilities through Flexdrive make them an ideal partner for expanding to Nashville. We can't wait to introduce Music City's residents and visitors to the convenient, consistent, safe, and magical Waymo experience."

Shares in New York were up over 20% at the start of the cash session, but have pulled back a little since...

...but still breaking out of a trading range that dates back to early 2022.

After months of compression, the Waymo news could be the catalyst for further upside.

Robotaxi wars in North America are underway. How will Tesla respond?

Related:

• Goldman Weighs In On Tesla Robotaxi Launch

• Robotaxis Enter Commercialization Phase In North America With Hyperscaling Next

According to Goldman...

Besides robotaxis, autonomous big rigs will be hitting the streets for commercialization momentarily - if they haven’t already.

• First Driverless Heavy Duty Trucking Service Launched On US Public Roads

. . .

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 10:00

UK, US Sign $42 Billion Tech Deal To Boost AI Partnership

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The United Kingdom and the United States struck a technology pact on Sept. 16 that would bring $42 billion in investments from U.S. tech giants into the UK’s AI infrastructure.

The deal was reached as President Donald Trump arrived in the UK for a two-day state visit, during which he is expected to meet King Charles and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Under the “Tech Prosperity Deal,” the two nations agreed to cooperate in advancing AI, quantum computing, and nuclear technology, according to a statement issued by the UK government.

Major U.S. tech companies—Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, and CoreWeave—will invest in the UK’s AI infrastructure, including data centers and computer chips, as part of the agreement.

The deal is expected to generate more than 5,000 jobs in the northeast of England, which the UK government said will become a new AI growth zone.

The two countries will collaborate on research schemes to further the use of AI to allow for “targeted treatments and other shared priorities like fusion energy,” according to the statement.

This could lead to “life-changing breakthroughs like developing targeted treatments for those suffering with cancer or rare and chronic diseases,” the UK government said.

“This Tech Prosperity Deal marks a generational step change in our relationship with the U.S., shaping the futures of millions of people on both sides of the Atlantic, and delivering growth, security and opportunity up and down the country,” Starmer said.

The deal includes a $30 billion investment from Microsoft over four years, its largest commitment in the UK.

The company stated in a blog post that the funding will help develop the country’s “largest supercomputer,” which will be equipped with more than 23,000 advanced AI chips.

Under the U.S.–UK tech pact, Nvidia will partner with UK companies to deploy 120,000 advanced GPU chips across the country, marking its largest rollout in Europe to date, according to the statement.

“Today marks a historic chapter in U.S. – United Kingdom technology collaboration,” Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said.

OpenAI said it will team up with British company Nscale and Nvidia to launch a Stargate UK project to boost the UK’s sovereign computing capabilities, as part of the tech pact.

The UK and the United States signed a trade agreement in June on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada. The deal still left UK steel and aluminum subject to 25 percent tariffs, rates that the UK government is working to reduce.

Speaking to reporters before departing for the UK on Sept. 16, Trump indicated that he was willing to further negotiate trade with the UK government.

“They want to see if they can refine the trade deal a little bit. We made a deal, and it’s a great deal. And I’m into helping them,” the president told reporters.

It was Trump’s second state visit to the UK; his first was in 2019, during his first presidential term, when he was hosted by King Charles’s late mother, Queen Elizabeth II.

A fact sheet issued in May by the Office of U.S. Trade Representative noted that the UK had not fully addressed its Digital Services Tax (DST), which Washington has criticized as discriminatory toward U.S. tech companies. It is unclear whether Trump will touch on the issue during his visit.

The two governments signed a nuclear energy deal just a day before Trump arrived in Britain, which the UK said would “turbocharge the build-out of new nuclear power stations” in both countries.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 09:45

The Fuse Of History Is Lit

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

Earlier this month a British academic named Michael Rainsborough wrote an insightful essay on the United Kingdom’s descent towards civil war.  Once the head of the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, Rainsborough was dismissed from his post for committing a series of “thought crimes.”  His final offense came in the form of a co-authored essay entitled, “The British Road to Dirty War,” in which he and former colleague David Betz diagramed “the hollowing out of British democratic institutions” and the dangerous rule of a permanent governing class filled with authoritarian elites.

Now working in Australia, Rainsborough returns to the subject with additional wisdom that only time and distance can provide.  His verdict is as incisive as it is sobering: Britain’s institutions are irreparably damaged.  The country is headed for long-term Balkanization.  

A “dirty war” similar to those that gripped Latin America fifty years ago may usher in an era of assassinations, hostage-taking, disappearances, industrial sabotage, censorship, and general repression.  Although he acknowledges that the question of how bad things will become in Britain is still very much an open one, he doesn’t envision any set of circumstances that can entirely avert the misery to come.

Rainsborough describes a series of intentional acts engineered by governing elites to diminish democratic accountability and maintain permanent control.  

Rather than recognizing the democratic will of the people following the Brexit referendum in 2016, the ruling class responded with a “deranged mixture of denial and contempt for the electorate.”  

Even before the Brexit vote, however, leftist-globalists were engaging in a great “demographic transformation” intended “to rub the Right’s nose in diversity.”  

Today the whole British government “operates from a post-nationalist outlook, one that treats the very idea of nationhood as negotiable, even alien, to the political class.”

Making matters worse, the British Establishment has gone all-in on globalism by “outsourcing” its “sovereignty to supranational bodies” that “dilute and often override domestic consent.”  Consequently, institutional elites are driving Britain towards “self-destruction” by “clinging to an incontinent immigration system and an almost devotional attachment to international and human rights laws that disadvantage its own citizens.”

Rainsborough accuses British authorities of repurposing old tools for imperial governance into “divide and rule” instruments for manipulating domestic society.  “The aim” is “to rule by division: to fracture society into communities, reward loyal in-groups and discriminate against the majority through a two-tier system of justice, policing and social policy.”  He calls the agents of this purposeful division the “new imperialists.”

The “new imperialists” have self-important titles — “diversity coordinators, anti-racism activists, curriculum decolonisers, climate campaigners” — but their mission is identical to the agents that once helped Britain’s East India Company conquer much of the globe: to “manage society by division.”  After categorizing everyone by race, caste, and creed, today’s “woke” imperialists “elevate” favored minorities and “relegate” the majority to “second-class status.”  Just as their predecessors felt morally superior to the natives when conquering India, today’s leftist-globalists are “buoyed by moral certainty and a conviction of their right to rule.”

The natural result of this manufactured division is today’s national flag protests across the United Kingdom.  While government authorities enthusiastically support the waving of Ukrainian, Islamic, and “gay pride” flags, they are extremely angry with British citizens who proudly fly England’s Cross of St. George.  “The majority population, already disregarded on questions such as immigration, is told that its own symbols of belonging must be hidden, while the emblems of others are to be privileged and extolled.”  In effect, Britain’s elite ruling class has denied the British “people’s right to recognise themselves.

What is particularly remarkable about Rainsborough’s analysis is its applicability to other nations throughout the West.  An American, Canadian, Australian, German, or Dutch citizen reading his point-by-point rationale for why the United Kingdom is heading for civil war would logically conclude that civil war is also coming closer to home.  Is there any public policy that the British Establishment has implemented to “divide and rule” over citizens that the Establishments of other Western nations haven’t also implemented?  Support for mass illegal immigration, the demonization of patriotism as “fascism,” the criminalization of so-called “hate speech,” widespread censorship, and the systematic persecution of individuals and groups expressing dissent to the government’s official “narratives” — these hallmarks of encroaching totalitarianism flourish across the West.

Parts of France are in flames right now.  After Emmanuel Macron’s government collapsed last week, riots erupted nationwide.  Fed up with the direction of their country under Macron’s rule, French citizens across the political spectrum have temporarily coalesced into a “Block Everything” movement that has shut down major highways and turned the night sky into a medieval mixture of glowing embers and smoke.  It has been reported that the ineffective French president is so desperate to quell the growing revolt that he is considering shutting down social media platforms.

Macron might resist the despotic urge to suspend public communication after witnessing events unfold in Nepal.  The South Asian republic is also in flames right now after more than a week of total chaos.  After large public protests over government corruption could not be controlled, the Nepalese Establishment made the fateful decision to block all social media platforms.  Angry citizens promptly responded by burning down parliament, dragging politicians out of their homes, and beating officials to death.  The government attempted to reverse course and permit social media access, but protesters continue to target anyone who might be considered an “elite.”

French President Macron is acutely aware that the carnage in Nepal could soon find its way to France if he chooses to shut down social media sites.  Leftist-globalists already crossed a similar line in Canada when the government of former prime minister Justin Trudeau seized the bank accounts of “Freedom Convoy” protesters fighting back against COVID edicts and “vaccine” mandates.  Trudeau’s actions demonstrated how willing Western governments are to punish dissent by seizing private property.  Should Macron follow Canada and Nepal’s reckless examples by confiscating bank accounts and stifling public communication, French citizens will no doubt respond with even more intensity.

Perhaps that is why one of the U.K.’s top law enforcement officers, Sir Andy Cooke, is desperately trying to end the criminalization of “offensive” social media speech.  Arguing that British authorities need to “allow people to speak openly without the fear their opinion will put them on the wrong side of the law,” Cooke wants cops to stop acting as free speech “monitors.”  After years of throwing British citizens in jail for expressing opinions, this kind of public policy U-turn suggests that government authorities now regret energizing a free speech movement sweeping across the U.K.

In reaction to the assassination of Charlie Kirk in the United States, Prime Minister Keir Starmer wrote, “We must all be free to debate openly and freely without fear — there can be no justification for political violence.”  

After years of imprisoning people for their speech and regularly censoring social media accounts, Starmer’s hypocrisy set off a chain reaction of national anger in the U.K.  

On Saturday, over a million citizens took to the streets of London in support of free speech.  One Brit declared, “They just made a million Charlie Kirks.”

Could France, Britain, or the United States suffer Nepal’s fate?  Maybe.  The “new imperialists” are dangerously arrogant.  

As Rainsborough writes, “They imagine themselves clever enough — and the public credulous enough — that such policies can be pursued without provoking resistance.  But arrogance is no substitute for foresight.  Once matters tip into open conflict, escalation takes on its own momentum.  Anger is already stirring — and anger, once roused, is the fuse of history.”

If you look around the West, it is impossible to deny that the “fuse of history” is already lit.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 09:10

US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunged In August, But...

With homebuilder sentiment hovering near COVID lockdown lows (at 13-year lows), it is perhaps not surprising that this morning's Housing Starts and Building Permits data is such a shitshow.

• US Housing Starts tumbled 8.5% MoM (worse than the 4.4% MoM decline expected)

• US Building Permits plunged 3.7% MoM (worse than the 0.6% MoM rise expected)

That is the 5th straight month of MoM declines for the more forward-looking permits print.

The MoM declines dragged the SAARs down to post-COVID-lockdown lows...

Across the US, housing starts in the South, the nation’s biggest homebuilding region, fell 21% to the lowest in nearly a year.

Starts also fell in the Midwest, but they rose in the West and Northeast.

Starts & Permits plunged across the board (for both single-family and multi-family units)

Housing starts:

• Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024

• Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May

Housing permits:

• Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023

• Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

However, on the bright side, mortgage rates have been tumbling (near three year lows)...

...and mortgage applications soared almost 30% week-over-week.

Will the rate-cuts expected today (and for the rest of the year) provide the affordability lift that so many hope for?

Bear in mind there is still a vast gap between the current mortgage rates and the effective average rates of homeowners across the nation...

Last month, the number of single-family homes under construction extended its multi-year decline, falling to an annual pace of 611,000, the lowest since early 2021.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:51

Interpreting Zelensky's Shifting Goalposts For Victory

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

He finally accepts the impossibility of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders...

Zelensky recently told ABC News that “Victory, to my mind, Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine, this is to destroy us, occupy, and did he occupy it?...He didn't occupy us, we win, and I think so, because we have our country.”

This is a far cry from the mantra that he’s chanted almost daily for the past 3,5 years since the special operation began about restoring his country’s pre-2014 borders.

Quite clearly, he’s hinting that he’ll accept an end to the conflict that doesn’t achieve that aim, thus going with the political flow.

About that, while Trump might escalate US involvement for the purpose of coercing Putin into freezing the conflict without obtaining any of his stated goals therein, he doesn’t have any illusions about Ukraine restoring its pre-2014 borders.

The same goes for if he tries to make a direct NATO intervention there, whether before or after hostilities cease and regardless of whether it precedes a no-fly zone, a fait accompli. Zelensky is aware of this and doesn’t want to risk Trump’s wrath by demanding the impossible.

Accordingly, he’s now begun the task of correcting domestic and Western perceptions of victory, ergo why he’s now shifting the goalposts by claiming that this has been achieved just by ending the conflict without Russia occupying all of Ukraine. The problem is that Russia never intended to occupy all of Ukraine. This is proven by it never even trying to take Odessa, not to mention making no moves whatsoever on Western Ukraine, with Kiev’s environs being the furthest west that Russia ever went.

To be sure, some of its supporters have fantasized that Russia’s goal is to occupy all of Ukraine up to the Polish border, but this has always been wishful thinking and never a reflection of Russia’s stated goals or even its implied ones as proven by the course of military operations. By spinning this baseless speculation as strategic fact, which inadvertently highlights the curious narrative convergence between some of Russia’s and Ukraine’s supporters, Zelensky hopes to settle for less without “losing face”.

He's motivated not only by concerns about his legacy, but also by fear of an ultra-nationalist (fascist) revolt from segments of civil society and the armed forces in the event that he accepts indefinite Russian control over Ukrainian-claimed territories as part of a peace deal. The irony is that Ukraine would have retained the parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions presently under Russian control had Zelensky accepted the terms of spring 2022’s draft peace treaty that the UK and Poland conspired to sabotage.

The precedent established by the epic failure of summer 2023’s counteroffensive, which was prepared for over a year and followed the influx of tens of billions of dollars of military equipment into Ukraine that the West no longer has to spare, suggests that Zelensky won’t claw anything back no matter what . The conflict will thus end with Russia at the very least keeping the lands that it won in those two regions, if not expanding its gains (whether there and/or elsewhere) depending on how everything soon evolves.

Circling back to Zelensky shifting the goalposts for victory, the significance is therefore that he’s truly willing to freeze the conflict along the frontlines at minimum, with the possibility existing that he might even agree to withdraw from the rest of Donbass if Trump orders him to as part of a deal with Putin. That can’t be taken for granted, however, since he thus far hasn’t pressured him on anything so far. In any case, the military-political dynamics continue to favor Russia, and Zelensky has finally accepted this.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:40

China Tech Hits Four-Year High, Fueled By "Re-accelerating AI Spend & Product Rollouts" 

In recent weeks, our market technicians at The Market Ear desk posed an important question: Are Chinese technology stocks about to blast off after years in the gutter? 

Let's take a step back to mid-August. We had already flagged for Pro Subs that China's Shanghai Composite was "on the verge of a historic breakout."

Fast forward to Wednesday, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 4%, the highest close since Nov 2021, led by Baidu (+16%), with Alibaba, SMIC, and JD.com also rallying.

The Hang Seng Tech Index is up 41% year-to-date, on track for its seventh straight week of gains, far outpacing regional peers. Valuations (21x forward earnings) remain cheaper than the Nasdaq 100 (27x).

Hang Seng Tech v. S&P500 ... 

Some of the key drivers fueling the China tech rally include easing Sino-US tensions, highlighted by a planned Trump-Xi call later this week and a framework for the TikTok deal. Meanwhile, AI rollouts in the world's second-largest economy have accelerated, spanning robotaxis, drones, and domestically produced chips. The DeepSeek innovation shock is also shifting sentiment more positively toward the country.

Here are details (courtesy of Bloomberg) on China tech's massive AI spending spree - and let's not forget, the chips powering that compute are increasingly shifting toward domestic ones (read here)…

China's biggest tech companies are in the middle of a spending spree on AI, as they race against one another and against US firms to conquer a market widely expected to revolutionize how people live and work.

Total capital expenditure from major Chinese internet firms such as Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd., Baidu and JD.com is set to hit $32 billion in 2025, more than doubling from $13 billion in 2023, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report. That has helped create a funding spree in equity and bond markets. Alibaba raised $3.2 billion from a blockbuster convertible bond offering last week, while Tencent turned to the dim sum bond market for 9 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) on Tuesday, its first bond sale in four years.

The latest news fueling optimism was a state television report Tuesday night that China Unicom's Sanjiangyuan data center has signed contracts to deploy AI chips from local firms including Alibaba's chip unit T-Head.

"China tech leaders are visibly re-accelerating AI spend and product rollouts — models, robotaxis, in-house chips — while also proving they can monetize AI faster than many expected," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, who Bloomberg quoted. "With valuations lagging the U.S., investors are starting to pay attention again."

To Chanana’s point, if investors are only just waking up to the explosive rally in China tech, ZeroHedge Pro subs were already strapped in well before liftoff.

Get ZeroHedge Premium... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 08:00

Tyler Robinson Charged In Kirk Assassination, Urged Trans Boyfriend to "Stay Silent"

Utah prosecutors filed seven charges on Tuesday against 22-year-old Tyler Robinson in the political assassination of conservative thought leader Charlie Kirk nearly one week ago. They're seeking the death penalty. 

The charges include aggravated murder, discharge of a firearm, obstruction of justice, and witness tampering. Prosecutors said Robinson's DNA was found on the rifle's trigger.

Here are the seven charges:

• Count 1: Aggravated murder (capital offense)

• Count 2: Felony reckless discharge of a firearm causing bodily injury

• Count 3: Felony obstruction of justice for hiding the firearm

• Count 4: Felony obstruction of justice for discarding the clothing he wore during the shooting

• Count 5: Witness tampering for asking roommate to DELETE incriminating messages

• Count 6: Witness tampering for demanding the trans roommate stay silent, and NOT speak to the police

• Count 7: Commission of a violent offense in the presence of a child

Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray told reporters earlier that he intends to seek the death penalty against Robinson. This means Robinson will be held without bail. 

"I do not take this decision lightly, and it is a decision I have made independently as county attorney based solely on the available evidence and circumstances and nature of the crime," Gray said.

"Robinson's mother expressed concern to her husband that the suspect shooter looked like Robinson," and Robinson's father agreed, Gray said.

DISGUSTING: ABC’s Matt Gutman says he’s not sure “if we have seen an alleged murder with such specific text messages” that were “very touching, in a way, that I think many of us didn’t expect — a very intimate portrait into this relationship between the suspect’s roommate and the… pic.twitter.com/ulPcxoOwM3

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) September 16, 2025

According to Gray, Robinson's mother told federal agents that "over the last year or so, her son had become more political and had started leaning more to the left, becoming more pro-gay and trans-rights oriented."

Robinson's mother also told police that he "began to date his roommate, a biological male who was transitioning genders," the prosecutor said.

Lance Twiggs the tranny boyfriend of terrorist Tyler Robinson. pic.twitter.com/s3Lrc5QFsc

— Ryan Dawson (@RyLiberty) September 13, 2025

Benny Johnson released the Utah County DA's full text message exchange between Robinson and his transgender boyfriend/roommate after committing the assassination: 

Earlier, federal agents expanded their investigation to include whether pro-trans online groups, "furries" with sexualized animal obsessions, and others tied to Robinson had advance knowledge of the political assassination plot. These groups include communities on the online gaming platform Steam, as well as Armed Queers Salt Lake City.

'Armed Queers' Marxist Revolutionaries Under Investigation For Possible Foreknowledge Of Kirk's Assassination Plot https://t.co/LtPeDRioPF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2025

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 07:45

Beijing Bans Alibaba, ByteDance From Buying Nvidia's Custom AI Chip

China's Cyberspace Administration (CAC) has barred Alibaba, ByteDance, and other tech firms from purchasing Nvidia's AI chips, including the RTX Pro 6000D custom-built for the Chinese market. The timing underscores the ongoing Sino-US trade spat and tech showdown, as President Trump pushes to force a sale of China-associated TikTok to a U.S. company. Later this week, Trump is expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with trade and the fate of TikTok likely on the agenda. 

The Financial Times reports that the CAC is going beyond earlier restrictions on Nvidia's H20 chip. The curbs now extend to the RTX Pro 6000D, forcing major Chinese tech firms to abandon their planned large orders.

People familiar with the situation said some tech firms had tens of thousands of the RTX6000D, designed mainly for AI inference tasks, in the order pipeline. Regulators have concluded that domestic chips achieved the same performance as that of Nvidia's model. 

On Monday, China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws. While SAMR provided few details, the ruling stems from an antitrust probe that began with a preliminary investigation in 2020.

By Tuesday, the SCMP reported that the RTX6000D has so far received muted demand in China. JPMorgan told clients last month that it expected some 1.5 million RTX6000Ds to be produced in the second half of this year, while Morgan Stanley predicted in July that Nvidia would have 2 million RTX6000Ds in its pipeline. 

The RTX 6000D is based on Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture with conventional graphics double data rate memory and a memory bandwidth of 1,398 gigabytes per second, just below the 1.4 terabyte threshold set by the U.S. in April. It was developed in part to fill a void left by the H20, which was banned from sale in April before that decision was reversed.

What's clear is that Beijing is putting pressure on Nvidia ahead of the Trump-Xi talks later this week - think of it as a form of leverage. 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment but acknowledged the geopolitical storm, noting that Nvidia can only serve markets where it's welcome.

"We can only be in service of a market if the country wants us to be," Huang told reporters in London. "I'm disappointed with what I see. But they have larger agendas to work out, between China and the U.S., and I'm understanding of that. We are patient about it."

Shares of Nvidia are down 1.5% in premarket trading in New York. On the year, shares are up 30%. The chart below shows that upside price action has stalled since mid-August. The $180 level is the current resistance.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 07:20

Arabica Coffee Prices Soar As Analyst Warns Of "Weather Disasters" Risk Denting Global Production

Arabica coffee futures have soared over the past six weeks, reaching their highest level since February as traders closely monitor tightening supplies, adverse weather conditions in Brazil and other top growers, and uncertainty surrounding upcoming harvests, which has fueled a short squeeze.

Arabica, the premium bean used by Starbucks, Dunkin', and other chains, jumped as much as 6.2% to $4.21 on Monday, with momentum easing on Tuesday as $4.20 emerged as a line of resistance. Notably, futures have surged nearly 50% since early August.

In a mid-August report, we cited Maja Wallengren, Danish-born independent coffee market reporter and founder of SpillingTheBean, who warned that adverse weather across key coffee-producing areas in Brazil, including the entire Cerrado Mineiro region and parts of Southern Minas, had experienced "frost damage" severe enough to be a potential "death blow" to the 2026 harvest. 

Coffee Analyst Warns Brazil Frost Could Deliver "Death Blow" To 2026 Harvest https://t.co/h33Dp3r7Ge

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2025

Wallengren recently warned that "multiple and continuing weather disasters across the world's Arabica and Robusta producing countries" are producing an extreme situation where "there is ZERO POSSIBILTY for global production to recover until 2030 and it's a FACT that The World IS Running Out of Coffee !!"

STOCK WATCH #KC: Certified Arabica #coffee stocks at ICE again DOWN with another big drawback of over 6K lots on Sep 10 and now at 679.5K, down close to 20% from about 844K in early July - and with the multiple and continuing weather disasters across the world's Arabica and… https://t.co/hAXqZjzK6H pic.twitter.com/vPLRF0ybGs

— Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean) September 11, 2025

In robusta markets...

*BREAKING MARKET ANALYSIS #KC: World #Coffee Prices To Hit 10-Year Bull Cycle as Brazil Disaster Continues to Worsen, Making it IMPOSSIBLE for the Global Supply Chain to recover until 2030 earliest !!
*Aug. 18, 2025 (SpillingTheBeans)--Those in the global #coffee trade who… pic.twitter.com/LulUj7faq0

— Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean) August 19, 2025

According to Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, the weather in Brazil is dry but not abnormally so. She told Bloomberg that the market is "on anxiety" because of separate weather concerns that may impact bean sizes. 

While the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report forecasts global coffee output at around 178.7 million bags in 2025–26, weather risks remain on analysts' minds. Ganes noted that the rally in coffee futures is being driven more by financial positioning and tariffs than by fundamentals.

"We should be seeing prices coming down unless there is some major issue with the flowering for the Brazilian 26-27 crop, and that story isn't written yet. Even with the couple of cold snaps, you could still wind up with a decent crop," Ganes said, adding, "To me, this is all financial, and it's being tripped up by the tariffs."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 06:55

The Rise Of Neo-Feudalism: Germany's Conservatives Bow To Socialist Wealth Taxes

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In Germany, a heated debate has erupted over the taxation of inheritances and wealth—and the Union (CDU/CSU) isn’t even attempting to curb these anti-civilizational trends. In fact, it has become part of the problem.

Unassuming, loyal voters of the Union parties are rubbing their eyes in disbelief these weeks. Faced with the envy-driven push by the Social Democrats for higher inheritance taxes and the possible reintroduction of a wealth tax, many are shocked—or even repelled—by the statements of their own political representatives.

Union Politicians Fuel the Debate

When it comes to citizens’ lawful property and how they use it, Union circles have recently sounded like this: "Those who already had, always gain more. In recent years, particularly during the low-interest phase, wealth grew almost automatically, without much personal effort. Property values, stock values, and more—this is a problem of wealth distribution." - Jens Spahn, CDU parliamentary group leader.

His colleague Dennis Radtke, social zealot and head of the Christian Democratic Workers’ Association (CDA), goes even further: "We should examine the exemptions in inheritance and gift taxes, under the concept of wealth assessment. These exemptions allow billions in wealth to be gifted and inherited without a single euro in taxes paid… This wouldn’t be a tax increase, just closing loopholes.“

In the view of this gentleman, the fundamental act of wealth creation—which, in a healthy bourgeois society, extends one’s economic actions to one’s descendants—is just a “loophole” if the state cannot freely access our assets.

This makes one thing clear: the party cartel is united when it comes to power. L’État, c’est moi! The citizen is nothing more than a supplier of political power, packaged in liquidable assets.

Generational Contract and Bourgeois Values

We can expect this understanding of the state from Germany’s socialist parties, whether the BSW, The Left, or the Greens. The openly socialist-populist SPD has long since fallen to the point of seeing citizens as nothing more than cows to be milked. Since the disastrous years under Angela Merkel, any voter should have realized that a party embracing open-border policies, eco-socialist climate politics, and bellicist tendencies—as seen in the Ukraine conflict—can no longer serve as a bourgeois counterweight.

Thanks to years of media propaganda, however, many Germans still perceive the chancellor as a representative of bourgeois values. Closer inspection reveals that the green-socialist spectrum of parties—including the Union—ultimately follows the same globalist ideology.

Undermining the family as society’s cornerstone, promoting state-driven culture and media influence, they all follow an unmistakably socialist script.

The centralization of political power in Brussels and dramatically increasing censorship pair with statist economic policies, whose latest victims are German industry. The inheritance and wealth tax debate fits perfectly into this ideological framework, trampling the true generational contract—between parents and heirs.

Neo-Feudal Tendencies

A power structure that manages to secure majority approval for substance taxes—whether inheritance or wealth taxes—through a debate framed around “justice” inevitably becomes a neo-feudal apparatus. Every form of wealth use—portfolio holdings, gifts, or inheritance—comes under arbitrary state administration. Every house, every stock account an individual acquires becomes a fief, requiring continuous tribute to avoid full expropriation.

The media-endorsed debate over “substance” or “resentment” taxes is thus anti-civilizational, anti-bourgeois, and devastating to capital formation. It accelerates pauperization trends now visible throughout the country.

Bowing to the Cult of Resentment

Jens Spahn, Lars Klingbeil, and their peers are archetypical career politicians, expertly embedded in a parasitic power apparatus that has long since detached from the economic middle class. It does not serve the population; it opposes it. Politically and philosophically, EU Europe—largely shaped by German policy—stands at a crossroads of cyclical overreach.

The apparatus acts grotesquely and invasively. It systematically violates citizens’ privacy and has become a bureaucratic perpetual motion machine—a self-destructive economic mechanism. Laws like the combustion engine ban or the heating regulations—aggressive expropriation policies—most vividly illustrate the neo-feudal character of today’s European politics. Bureaucracy embodies the spirit of pure dispossession. It is almost a late-Roman scenario, a Diocletianic system in which citizens—never mind the proposed “15-minute cities”—are reduced to mere state fodder. You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy!

The pitiful capitulation of Union politicians to the Social Democrats’ cult of resentment is more than a political gesture. Representatives who advocate neo-feudal policies do not represent the sovereign—they place themselves above it, distributing fiefs. It is an anti-civilizational act that pulverizes the true generational contract, the unrestricted right to inherit and own property. With this step, the CDU has definitively exited the block of bourgeois representation. At its core, it is now a statist, largely socialist party, openly showing its true color. And that color is red.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 06:30

Putin Boasts 100,000 Troops Are Participating In Belarus-Russia Drills

Russia's President Putin on Tuesday boasted that some 100,000 military personnel are taking part in the major joint Russia-Belarus war games called "Zapad-2025" - which has deeply alarmed Poland and other so-called NATO eastern flank countries.

The drills have been going for several days, and come to a close on Tuesday, and have focused on the stated goal of testing defense of the 'Union State' - and to repel all potential aggression.

Via Sputnik stillframe

Putin actually visited the Mulino training ground, a main staging location for the drills, in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Region. Aspects to the exercise are happening a sites both in Belarus and Russia.

In total, the exercise ensued at 41 training grounds, with the some 100,000 troops utilizing 10,000 weapons and equipment systems, according to fresh words of Putin. 

"Moreover, this is all modern equipment used in practical combat work, and the plans for the exercise are based on the experience gained during the special military operation. Ten thousand types of equipment, including 333 aircraft: tactical aviation, strategic aviation and military transport aviation. More than 247 ships are also used: surface, submarine and support vessels," Putin was quoted in Russian media as saying.

Russian President Putin put on military fatigues and visited the Mulino Training Ground in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Oblast to oversee the active phase of the ongoing joint Russia-Belarus "Zapad-2025" strategic exercise.

According to him, the drills are taking place at 41… pic.twitter.com/H4ggT3bMgC

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) September 16, 2025

The drills also included twenty-five foreign delegations which participated. Other nations sent representatives to observe. As we noted earlier, one notable presence was a Pentagon delegation.

US military officers were on hand to observe the war games, and were photographed, in what was described as a surprise visit wherein Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin instructed that the US officials could look at "whatever is of interest for you."

According to a description in Reuters:

"Who would have thought how the morning of another day of the Zapad-2025 exercise would begin?" it [the defense ministry] said in a statement noting their presence among representatives from 23 countries including two other NATO member states — Turkey and Hungary.

The ministry released video showing two uniformed U.S. officers thanking Khrenin for the invitation and shaking his hand. "We will show whatever is of interest for you. Whatever you want. You can go there and see, talk to people," the minister told the Americans, who declined to speak to reporters.

State media reporters were on hand to capture the visit...

This development was also unprecedented and highly unusual given Belarus has been Moscow's closest partner in executing the 'special military operation' in neighboring Ukraine, having utilized its territory to send tens of thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine in February 2022 and after.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 05:45

AfD Triples Support In Germany's Most Populous State, CDU & SPD Both Lose Votes

Via Remix News,

In the first major state elections since the new government, North Rhine-Westphalia went to the polls, with the Christian Democrats (CDU) coming out on top while the Social Democrats (SPD) crashed in support. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the third-strongest party in the state, more than tripling its support from the last elections.

The state, which has 14 million eligible voters, served as a major litmus test for the new government.

The CDU was the clear winner, earning 33 percent of the vote, compared to its 2020 total of 34.2 percent.

The AfD was seen as growing its support substantially, jumping to 14.5 percent of the vote, a clear jump from 5.1 percent in the last elections. However, the party actually received a higher share of the vote during the federal elections, meaning support for the party appears to be stagnating.

Nevertheless, the establishment views the AfD results as a worrying sign.

“This result should give us pause and cannot let us sleep peacefully,” said North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst, of the CDU, to the “Report from Berlin.”

The left-wing SPD was seen as one of the big losers, falling to 22 percent in what was once considered one of its heartlands. In 1994, the party received 42 percent of the vote.

The far-left Green Party also sunk dramatically, going from 20 percent to 13.4 percent.

The local elections could have implications for the federal coalition between the CDU and SPD. With the SPD losing votes, it could turn more sharply against the CDU, with the two parties already sharply clashing over judicial appointments.

The votes were for thousands of candidates, including those running for district councilor, mayor, districting administrators, and other positions.

However, a looming crisis has to do with the fact that a majority of municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Only 16 out of 427 were able to put forward balanced budgets in 2024.

A number of run-off votes will also be taking place on Sept. 28. The CDU and SPD are combining forces to block AfD candidates. For the first time, the AfD will be in mayoral run-offs, including Norbert Emmerich in Gelsenkirchen, who scored 29.8 percent of the vote. However, he is far behind the SPD opponent, Andrea Henze, who received 37.1 percent of the votes.

In many of the other races, the AfD candidate appears to have little chance of victory.

NRW woes

Unemployment is growing in the German state, with 800,000 jobless reported in August. Bankruptcies are also growing, jumping to 3,190 in the first half of 2025, a 17.2 percent increase.

The AfD is still celebrating its results. Party co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated on X, writing it was a “great success.” However, the actual totals for the AfD turned out to be slightly less than exit polls initially predicted.

Ein riesiger Erfolg: Nach ersten Prognosen hat sich das Ergebnis der AfD in NRW verdreifacht. Herzlichen Dank an alle Wahlkämpfer und an unsere Wähler! pic.twitter.com/5eim5eDxfP

— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) September 14, 2025

The AfD, however, continues to grow in strength in the east of the country. Furthermore, new polls show the party hitting close to 20 percent in Bavaria.

The party will still need to boost its support to close to 20 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia and other Western states if it ever hopes to secure the support of 30 percent of voters nationwide, one of its key goals. If it ever manages to secure such a voting share, it would make forming coalitions without the party at the federal level nearly impossible.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 05:00

'Eastern Sentry': The New NATO Initiative To Protect The Eastern Flank

Some eight NATO allies have prepared operation 'Eastern Sentry' following last week's alleged Russian drone breach of Poland. It is a new joint military mission to bolster defense of Europe's eastern flank, also after Romania had more recently reported a Russian drone incursion, resulting in the scrambling of fighter jets to track it.

"Following the Russian drone incursions into Poland, I have decided to deploy three Rafale fighter jets to contribute to the protection of Polish airspace and of NATO’s Eastern Flank together with our Allies," President Emmanuel Macron announced on X this week. Along with France, the effort includes the UK, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Spain, and The Netherlands. More nations are expected to join.

Via Army Recognition 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed that his country will deploy Royal Air Force jets to Poland, while Italy will contribute two Eurofighter jets, and Germany has readied four Eurofighters. Denmark will also sent jets, and Czech Mi-171S helicopters have also arrived in Poland. Over 150 NATO troops have also initially arrived along with the equipment.

Meanwhile, eastern European and Baltic countries are already calling for more, including:

Anti-drone defense systems in NATO countries still need to be developed, Latvia's President Edgars Rinkevics told a press conference on Tuesday.

NATO on Friday launched "Eastern Sentry," a new military mission to bolster defense of Europe's eastern flank in response to Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace last week.

The Washington Post wrote on Monday, "The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022."

Additionally, in a Monday interview, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

"We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies," he said.

NATO must impose no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect from Russian drones, Poland says https://t.co/PsN1hGajye pic.twitter.com/zOdNuCTCWz

— New York Post (@nypost) September 15, 2025

"Protection for our population — for example, from falling debris — would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory … If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider it," he added.

The Kremlin has essentially called this 'idiotic' and has made clear this would assure a direct Russia-NATO clash, likely leading to WW3. Much will depend on what Washington says, and its own potential role in 'Eastern Sentry'.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 04:15

Germany's Shadow Budgets: Bundesbank Warns Of Fiscal Collapse

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

With the creation of “special funds” and shadow budgets, the German government is evading fiscal transparency and undermining parliamentary control – a practice now sharply criticized by both the Bundesbank and the Federal Audit Office.

France, meanwhile, offers a warning of where this path leads. Political chaos in Paris culminated in fiscal humiliation last week when Fitch Ratings downgraded French sovereign debt from AA– to A+. France has maneuvered itself into a debt spiral, fueled by unchecked government spending and a misguided attempt to paper over social fractures with cheap credit.

Shadow Budgets and Statism

Germany, instead of avoiding France’s mistakes, appears determined to follow them. The fiscal discipline that characterized the postwar era is long gone. Across party lines, there is consensus in Berlin: with creative accounting tricks in the form of “special funds,” the debt brake can simply be ignored. The pinnacle of this new strategy is Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s trillion-euro debt package, which includes a €500 billion special fund.

The official justification is noble: defense spending must not be constrained by the bond market, and Germany’s crumbling infrastructure must be modernized. Packaged nicely in the media, the German public is expected to accept this new mountain of debt. After all, it is supposedly “for the greater good.”

But the German Taxpayers’ Association has labeled these special funds exactly what they are: a colossal debt-shuffling scheme. In practice, spending that should be tax-financed is quietly offloaded into shadow budgets that rely on new borrowing.

Manipulation Everywhere

The bond market itself has become little more than a derivative of monetary policy. Berlin, like its European neighbors, is clearly relying on the European Central Bank to keep the debt pile liquid and to step in whenever investors retreat.

Together with Brussels’ interventionism, this has created a political framework that openly encourages state overreach. Parliamentary oversight has all but disappeared. More than half of Germany’s GDP already passes through state hands – a level of intervention unthinkable a generation ago.

Berlin’s strategic consensus is striking: the very state that manufactured the crisis – through suffocating regulation, a self-inflicted energy disaster, bloated public finances, and crushing taxation – now claims it will solve the crisis by doubling down on intervention. The logic is that of a kleptocratic alcoholic in a bar: he runs a tab, borrows from his neighbors, and when generosity runs out, steals directly from the counter. Ultimately, it is this debt binge, this addiction to central planning, that will bring Germany down as both a political and economic model.

There is little meaningful opposition. Whether in parliament or in the intellectual sphere, critics lack the resonance to form a powerful public phalanx against this destructive policy path.

Criticism From Unlikely Quarters

Now, however, criticism has emerged from an unexpected source: the German Bundesbank. Rarely intervening in day-to-day politics, the central bank used its August monthly report to criticize the use of special funds. It warned bluntly that billions earmarked for local governments would likely be diverted to fill existing budget gaps rather than finance infrastructure and climate projects, as promised.

The Bundesbank also pointed to the absence of effective structures for efficiency control. By outsourcing vast parts of the federal budget into special funds, Berlin is obscuring the country’s true fiscal position and undermining budget discipline.

Criticism of runaway statism is nothing new. What is striking, however, is that core state institutions such as the Bundesbank are now joining the chorus. The Bundesbank projects Germany’s deficit will climb to 4% of GDP over the next two years – and that is under the optimistic assumption that the economy does not deteriorate further.

Its report leaves little doubt: the €100 billion in funds allocated to states and municipalities will likely be misused, rather than going into the infrastructure investments so loudly promised to the public.

The Firefighting State

Meanwhile, ordinary citizens – at least those still in the productive economy – waste their days in crumbling public transport, endless traffic jams on decaying highways, or waiting at the foot of collapsing bridges.

Germany, according to the Bundesbank, is operating in “firefighting mode” – patching up budgetary gaps and social spending programs instead of addressing structural problems. Much of the new spending, it warns, risks being consumed by short-term consumption rather than long-term investment.

The central bank has therefore proposed reforms to strictly limit borrowing capacity and to enforce transparency. At best, it sees special funds with their own borrowing authority as a temporary solution – one that would still require strict parliamentary oversight.

Support From the Federal Audit Office

The Bundesbank’s stance is reinforced by the Federal Audit Office, which for months has been calling for tighter, more targeted use of new credit funds. It has demanded that Berlin reserve the right to claw back funds that are misused – a measure based on bitter experience. Past budgets, from integration funds to inflated COVID-19 aid packages, were set high precisely so that excess money could later be diverted to plug welfare deficits.

The trick is simple: new debt is hidden from the public, while the true costs are shifted into the future. A short-term stimulus effect may provide the ruling coalition with breathing space against rising opposition – but at the price of structural decline.

Straight Toward Insolvency

That Berlin is using shadow budgets to buy time is hardly surprising. There is bipartisan conviction in the capital that creative accounting and oversized state demand can somehow solve both the fiscal crisis and the economic malaise.

But this is pure Keynesian delusion. The state as Leviathan, pretending to be omnipotent – and yet repeatedly colliding with reality. When central planning fails, the blame is always shifted onto the bond market, which stubbornly refuses to accept the illusion that debt-financed interventions can solve everything.

Regardless of how it is structured, the “special fund” is nothing but a monument to political failure. Responsibility lies squarely with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who endorsed the scheme both for coalition reasons and out of personal conviction.

The principle remains clear: every euro siphoned from private capital markets and funneled into the redistribution machine of the state is a lost euro. And every debt-financed state policy leaves behind nothing but new liabilities – to be paid later through taxes or inflation.

There is no free lunch. Only bad policy.

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 03:30

Poland Receives Single Largest Delivery Of M1 Abrams Tanks From US

The Western allies continue to bolster defenses of the largest NATO 'eastern flank' country which borders Ukraine, parallel to Russia ramping up its drone and missile attacks across the war-ravaged country.

Poland this week has received 38 new M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States, marking the largest single delivery so far under a defense agreement signed in 2022. It was the third delivery under the contract.

AFP/Getty Images

The delivery brings the total number of American-made tanks delivered to Poland to 85, with more expected through 2026, based on the contract.

The shipment included additional support equipment, such as 14 recovery vehicles designed to tow damaged tanks off the battlefield. The deal will also see the transfer of bridging systems and ammunition for the tanks.

The Polish armed forces already possess German Leopard 2s, South Korean K2 Black Panthers, and Polish-made PT-91s - but the Abrams are part of an effort of Warsaw to rapidly modernize its forces, with the Ukraine war raging just next door.

The very first shipment was back in January of this year, and included over two dozen of the US main battle tanks. In total the contract stipulates 250 M1A2 SEPv3 tanks to be delivered through 2026. These have enhanced packages for greater maneuverability, advanced tech, and greater crew protections than the standard Abrams.

American military magazine Stripes previously wrote:

For the Polish army, the Abrams tank serves as the centerpiece of a modernization effort that has picked up momentum in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Patriot missiles, Apache attack helicopters, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and F-35 fighter jets are other major weapons systems that Warsaw has been busy adding to its arsenal.

Patriot missiles, Apache attack helicopters, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and F-35 fighter jets are other major weapons systems that Warsaw has been busy adding to its arsenal.

In the wake of last week's Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, Warsaw officials have only grown more hawkish in wanting to 'stand up' to Russia.

For example, in a Monday interview, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

"We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies," he said.

Commenting on the drone breach incident, The Washington Post observed on Monday, "The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/17/2025 - 02:45