Goldman Warns of "Accelerated Property Price Declines" Across Chinese Cities 

The latest 70-city house price data from China's National Bureau of Statistics indicate that the property market remains in decline as of June, despite ongoing policy easing measures and recent rumors that Beijing may revive its 2015 stimulus playbook. Overnight, China reported 5.2% year-over-year growth for Q2, just fractionally above expectations (does anyone actually believe these numbers?). 

A team of Goldman analysts, led by Andrew Tilton, penned a note on Tuesday for clients, warning that China's housing market is continuing to accelerate to the downside. 

• NBS' 70-city primary-market weighted average property price change in June: -2.5% mom annualized (seasonally adjusted by GS), -3.1% yoy. May: -2.3% mom annualized, -3.5% yoy.

Tilton said new data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows new home prices across 70 cities fell 2.5% month-over-month annualized in June—despite ongoing easing efforts. The downturn isn't limited to Tier 1 cities—it's widespread. Translation: The "floor" Beijnng continues to promise looks more like a trapdoor every time. 

The five main points from the data:

After seasonal adjustments, weighted average house prices in the primary market fell by 2.5% mom annualized in June (vs. -2.3% in May; Exhibit 1), despite ongoing easing policies.

The number of cities that experienced sequentially higher property prices ticked up in the primary market but continued to fall in the secondary market in June (Exhibit 3).

Year-on-year change in the weighted average new home prices fell by 3.1% in June, compared to -3.5% in May. We emphasize the 70-city data are for primary market transactions (new home sales) only; secondary market data by NBS and some third-party platforms suggest price declines of 5%-15% over the past year (Exhibit 4).

By city tiers[2], house prices of Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities declined sequentially by 1.3% and 2.1% mom annualized in June (vs. -0.7% and -1.9% in May), respectively (Exhibit 2). For Tier-3 cities, house prices declined sequentially by 3.5% mom annualized (vs. -3.5% in May). Despite more local housing easing measures in recent months, we believe the property markets in lower-tier cities still face strong headwinds from weaker growth fundamentals than top-tier cities, including the more severe oversupply problems.

Our high frequency tracker suggests that the 30-city new home transaction volume declined by 4% yoy in June. Major cities' inventory months (sellable gross floor area divided by 12-month rolling gross floor area sold) increased slightly to 26.0 in July from 25.5 in June, with the increase mostly led by Tier-2 cities.

Since the September policy pivot last year, policymakers have aimed to provide a floor to the property market. In the recent State Council meeting, the government stated to construct a new real estate development model (房地产发展新模式) and advance the "good housing initiative" (好房子建设). We expect incremental housing easing measures to stabilize home prices and contain the left-tail risk in the property sector, including further cuts to mortgage rates, faster implementation of local government purchases of raw land and existing housing inventory, and more policy support for cash-backed urban village renovation programs (with 1mn units already announced). However, we believe a repeat of the 2015-18 shantytown redevelopment program is unlikely.

Related: 

• China Property Stocks Erupt On Rumors Beijing May Revive 2015 Stimulus Playbook

• China's Big Housing Stimulus Rescue Is Wishful Thinking

Overnight News:

• China Q2 GDP Drops To 5.2% But Beats Expectations Thanks To Subsidies And Tariff Frontrunning

The larger question is whether another shantytown redevelopment stimulus package will have the same effect as it did a decade ago. Beijing needs to fire the stimulus bazooka here. ​​​​​​​

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 19:40

Why Are Taxpayers Still Funding These Injection Mandates?

Authored by Lucia Sinatra via The Brownstone Institute,

It was nerve wracking, to say the least; having a high school student who had gotten into his dream college in mid-December 2020 but was uncertain if he could attend the following fall due to Covid-19 vaccine mandates. Those harrowing days and nights we spent focusing on little else as we scoured college websites to eventually find what we pretty much expected would come to pass. 

It started in April of 2021 when Rutgers University and then Harvard University announced their students would be required to take Covid-19 vaccines prior to enrollment. In these early days, I remember thinking that surely, they will reveal some scientific data showing these vaccines could prevent transmission and severe illness or death to justify the mandates, but alas, the wait was in vain. 

Living up to their cult behavior reputation, by the summer of 2021, over 1,000 colleges announced the exact same fear-fueled narrative and implemented some of the world’s most oppressive mandate policies. By August, millions of college students would be mandated to take primary series Covid-19 vaccines prior to enrollment, many without enough notice to get their deposits back, transfer colleges, or even file for an exemption. The directive was clear: take these novel medical treatments with zero scientific evidence to show you need them, or don’t bother showing up. 

The best and brightest minds in academia never demanded to see the scientific data to justify their colleges’ strict mandate policies and never demanded the reasoning behind their administrations summoning a 100% compliance rate, but instead elevated the propaganda in lockstep fashion. To this day, it is astounding to think of what transpired and that so few questioned the lack of supporting science either because they were aghast to consider that our federal government was responsible for perpetrating the greatest crime against humanity the world has ever seen, or just because it was easier to comply and convince others to do the same. 

Some of us could see the writing on the wall. We knew colleges and universities were going to take this global pandemic opportunity to manipulate and control their vulnerable and young healthy adult populations into compliance, and that is exactly what they did. I kept hoping I was wrong, and once more data was released, these institutions would reverse course, but I was wrong then, and I still am now.

Health science students are still being coerced to take Covid-19 vaccines either prior to enrollment in their institutional program or prior to the start of their practical training at hospitals and clinical partner programs. In fact, they are the only college students still being coerced to take Covid-19 vaccines, and most of the time, it feels as though there is no end in sight.

When President Trump signed Executive Order 14214, he promised to end federal funding to colleges that still mandate Covid-19 vaccines. However, that has not happened yet, and who knows if it ever will? For example, the majority of health science degrees in our country are conferred by colleges and universities, and health science students at some institutions are still required to take Covid-19 vaccines. Why haven’t these institutions been defunded in accordance with EO 14214? 

To be clear, it is not new that health science students have different vaccination requirements than students who are not health care majors.

However, regarding Covid-19 vaccines in particular, the faculty and staff who teach these students at the college program or at the hospital or clinical facility where they are required to complete practicums are often no longer required to take these vaccines. 

In sum, we have a number of institutions that have yet to be defunded as promised by President Trump, and we have students at those institutions who are subject to unjustifiable disparate treatment.

So, what gives? 

To be perfectly honest, I have no idea other than these colleges have not been held accountable for their unscientific continuation of Covid-19 vaccine mandates for health science students. Non-healthcare students at all US colleges are no longer required to comply with Covid-19 vaccine mandates to enroll, yet health science majors who share the same classrooms, dining halls, and residence halls are still subject to mandates to either enroll or complete practicums or both. 

It is our position that these blatantly discriminatory policies persist because explicit action has not been taken to end them. 

On April 5, 2024, Representative Mark Messmer (R-IN) introduced H.R. 3044, and it has gained widespread support. This newly introduced legislation proposes to codify EO 14214 by promising to “withhold federal funds for any college or university that continues to mandate a required COVID-19 vaccination.” It is a good start as it is generally harder for a future administration to reverse a bill that has become law rather than an Executive Order, but our position is that the bill is incomplete. No College Mandates, which has led the fight to end all college student Covid-19 vaccine mandates, along with several signatories, has formally requested that before the bill becomes law, it must be amended. 

For H.R. 3044 to definitively end all Covid-19 vaccine mandates in higher education, it must be amended to explicitly include all teaching programs required for health science students to complete their degree. To clarify, not only must federal funding be removed from all colleges, universities, and any other institutions that continue to mandate Covid-19 vaccines, but also all teaching programs at hospitals and clinical partners with whom these institutions contract to provide practical training so that students can freely apply to and enter practicums, clinical rotations, internships, and residencies which all degree-granting institutions have made a requirement for graduation. 

A few weeks ago, we mailed this letter to all the Representatives who are supporting this bill, requesting explicit amendments including those outlined in the previous paragraph. We have also emailed the letter to each of the senior staff members and have followed up with several phone calls making our case. From the positive feedback we continue to receive, we are hopeful that the Representatives are willing to consider and incorporate our proposed amendments to H.R. 3044.

However, I have one simple ask. We cannot get the Representatives to devote proper attention to these amendments without your help.

Please take a few minutes to print a copy of our letter and mail or email it to the Representatives, encouraging them to amend the bill, as well as to your own Representative and Senators.

Together, we might just put an end to health science student Covid-19 vaccine mandates.

If you’ve never taken any action to end college student Covid-19 vaccine mandates, this is a wonderful opportunity, and it may just make all the difference.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 19:15

AI: Are Americans Worrying About The Wrong Jobs?

The rapid adoption of AI has stirred up worry - or at least apprehension - among many workers, as it is still unknown exactly what the impacts of the technology will be.

However, as Statista's Anna Fleck reports, some of this worry could be misaligned, as new survey data from Pew Recenter Right shows, with a gap in understanding over which jobs are most at risk having grown between the general public and AI experts.

According to the poll, conducted between August and October 2024, U.S. adults underestimate the impacts of AI on jobs for lawyers and truck drivers. By contrast, the U.S. public was more likely than experts to think medical doctors, teachers and musicians are at risk of AI-related job cuts over the next 20 years - although half of U.S. adults and experts say there will be job loss in each of these areas. A majority in both groups thought that AI will lead to fewer jobs for cashiers and journalists.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Another key takeaway however is the general climate of uncertainty that exists among the public, with between 13-26 percent of U.S. adults saying they are unsure whether or not there will be job losses per polled job.

The survey also found that while AI experts tend to be more positive than the public about the potential of AI, a majority in both groups were concerned that government regulation of AI will not go far enough. Pew researchers also reported that more men were optimistic about AI than women and that respondents generally agreed that men’s views, as well as white adults’ views, are most represented in AI design than other groups.

The ‘AI experts’ interviewed by Pew are all based in the U.S. and were selected based on their ability to demonstrate expertise via their work or research in artificial intelligence or related fields. They include authors and presenters of 21 AI-focused conferences from 2023 and 2024.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 18:50

"Tough, But Necessary": Nissan To Shutter Flagship Japanese Plant By March 2028

Nissan Motor will cease vehicle production at its flagship Oppama plant in Kanagawa by March 2028, a move CEO Ivan Espinosa called "a tough but necessary decision" and one of "significant pain," according to Nikkei

Production of current and upcoming models will shift to Nissan Motor Kyushu in Fukuoka, cutting manufacturing costs by an estimated 15%. Espinosa explained, "We are aiming to reduce fixed costs while increasing plant utilization rates to 100%."

The company also plans to end production at the Shonan plant, operated by its subsidiary Nissan Shatai, following the discontinuation of NV200 orders by March 2027.

Nikkei reports that Oppama’s 2,400 employees will remain employed until the closure. Nissan pledged to communicate employment plans clearly and work with unions once decisions are finalized.

The Oppama site’s future remains undecided. Espinosa stated, “We are discussing with several partners,” and considering "different scenarios and alternatives for repurposing of the assets," but ruled out joint ventures or contract manufacturing for now.

Espinosa acknowledged supplier concerns, saying, “We are going to discuss individually with each of them.”

The closure is part of Nissan’s broader Re:Nissan restructuring plan, announced in May, which includes reducing global assembly plants from 17 to 10 and cutting 20,000 jobs by March 2028. The company plans to lower non-China production capacity from 3.5 million to 2.5 million vehicles annually.

He confirmed no further plant closures in Japan beyond Oppama and Shonan, with any international changes to be announced later.

The Oppama plant, opened in 1961, produces Note and Note Aura models, with a capacity of 240,000 vehicles per year. Other local facilities, including Nissan’s research center and crash test site, will continue operating.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 18:00

The Cryptographic Fix For US Elections Is Still Sitting On The Shelf

Authored by Jason Nelson via Decrypt.co,

In brief

• A former voting machine auditor says U.S. election systems still lack basic cryptographic safeguards to detect ballot tampering or duplication.

• He proposes adding end-to-end cryptographic proofs - without blockchain - to secure future elections and restore public trust.

• Despite identifying vulnerabilities as early as 2006, he says vendors won’t act without legal pressure or updated election laws.

In 2006, software engineer Michal Pospieszalski uncovered dangerous flaws in U.S. voting machines—flaws he says still threaten American elections today.

Hired by the Election Science Institute, where he served as Chief Technology Officer, Pospieszalski was flown to the headquarters of election vendor Election Systems & Software (ES&S) in Omaha, Nebraska. His task was to analyze the company’s iVotronic voting system.

For over a week, Pospieszalski uncovered a wide range of issues, including “bad code practices, backdoors, static passwords,” and most importantly, what he described as a complete lack of “end-to-end cryptographic proofs.”

“The biggest thing that wasn’t there was end-to-end cryptographic proofs,” Pospieszalski told Decrypt in an interview. “Meaning there’s no way the machine, even with perfect external security, could know if a ballot is legitimate, or if it’s been counted twice, three times, 10 times, or 1,000 times.”

What’s missing from today’s voting machines

The CEO of blockchain security and identity software company MatterFi, Pospieszalski, said that vulnerability isn’t hypothetical; it’s easily exploitable by anyone with access to voting machines and voter registration systems.

“You could just run the same ballot through 10 times—and that’s still true today—and it’ll just count as 10 votes,” he explained. “And the scanner doesn’t know any better, and neither does the tabulator. The tabulator in the central precinct is like, ‘Oh, it was 10 votes.’”

Pospieszalski said the separation of ballot and voter record systems often makes reconciliation impossible without referring to original paper records.

“There’s no anonymous serialization of each ballot that would allow the system to know that each serialized ballot has to be counted only once,” he said.

The solution, according to Pospieszalski, involves software—not hardware—and builds on cryptographic techniques first developed in the 1980s by David Chaum, a cryptographer who pioneered digital cash and introduced blind signatures, allowing transactions to be verified without revealing their contents.

Chaum later founded DigiCash, an early digital currency, and proposed cryptographic voting systems that preserve anonymity while enabling public verification. His work laid key foundations for both secure e-voting and modern cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

“What you want is the machine at the end—the central count tabulator or election management system—gets a vote definition, and you have a Chaumian-blinded serialization on every ballot,” Pospieszalski said. “So, like in LA County, that output ballot that’s printed has a serial number. That serial number doesn’t identify the voter, but it tells the tabulator in the central precinct, ‘Hey, this is a unique ballot.’”

“If I see two of them, then somebody cheated,” he added. “Especially if I see 50 of them.”

In Pospieszalski's proposed model, there would be three counts: the paper ballots, the conventional digital tally, and a third cryptographic count.

“The way you see cheating is the digital count says there are 100 votes, and the cryptographic count says there should only be 90,” Pospieszalski said. “Now you know someone injected 10 votes.”

Lessons from Antrim County

In 2020, Pospieszalski was hired to conduct forensic analysis in Antrim County, Michigan, after a brief vote-counting error triggered widespread speculation.

“There was a vote flip in Antrim County by, like, roughly 2,000 votes, where, like, one day it was 2,000 for Biden, and the next day it was 2,000 for Trump,” he recalled. “What really happened is the ballot definition was misconfigured so that the system thought that the votes for Trump were for Biden.”

He said that when the ballots were rescanned with the corrected definition file, “Everything went back to normal.”

Pospieszalski emphasized that while the error was technical, the optics of the situation fed public suspicion.

“There wasn’t a huge, hostile attack. But as a voter being riled up by the media—particularly right-wing media—people are going to want answers,” he said, adding that such confusion is exactly what end-to-end, off-chain cryptographic proofs are designed to prevent.

But while he found no evidence of remote hacking or software backdoors, Pospieszalski did say he encountered signs of possible ballot injection during his analysis.

“If you have a ballot with 42 choices, and in the analysis you see 100 ballots with all 42 filled out the exact same way, you’re like: Um, probably not real,” he said. “That’s the stuff I found some evidence of in Antrim County.”

Asked why cryptographic ballot serialization hasn’t been implemented, Pospieszalski pointed to entrenched systems and corporate reluctance to make changes, adding that proposals for secure voting often failed to gain traction because they were too complicated.

“They’re suggesting all sorts of really, really difficult-to-use schemes... stuff that people are just like, if you’re a voting machine manufacturer, this isn’t going to make any sense," he said.

Several technologies aim to improve election security and trust. In April, New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel introduced a bill that would use blockchain technology to secure voter records and election results. While blockchain has been promoted as a solution for secure voting, Pospieszalski argued that the core issue doesn’t require that level of complexity.

“All you're trying to do is solve a simple problem: get an accurate count of legitimate votes,” he said. “Extra complexity is unnecessary. A lot of people push blockchain because it's popular, but you don't actually need it.”

By contrast, Pospieszalski says his solution works with current machines.

“I’m just saying: Look, make it a software upgrade to the existing system and work with Dominion, work with ES&S, and you can just turn it on or off," he said.

Asked how adoption might happen, Pospieszalski suggested legislation or mandates from jurisdictions that oversee elections.

“Voting manufacturers and their customers—counties—need big precincts to push for change,” he explained. “If a law said that by 2028 or 2032, voting systems must include end-to-end crypto proofs, we’d be in business.”

The advantage, according to him, would be clarity in future elections, especially in heated contests where trust is fragile.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 17:40

Chinese Biotech Companies Are Catching Up To U.S. Big Pharma

China's biotechnology sector is rapidly transforming from a follower into a global leader in pharmaceutical innovation, challenging the long-standing dominance of the United States and Europe, according to a new longform writeup by Bloomberg. 

Since regulatory reforms began in 2015, the number of innovative drugs originating from China has surged from just 160 to over 1,250 in 2024, nearly matching the U.S.'s 1,440. Once known for low-cost generics and quality issues, Chinese drugmakers are now producing cutting-edge therapies that are drawing global recognition and investment.

“The scale itself is not something we’ve seen before,” said Helen Chen, managing partner at LEK Consulting. “The products are here, they’re attractive and they’re fast.”

China’s progress is not only in volume but also in quality. Regulators such as the U.S. FDA and the European Medicines Agency are increasingly awarding Chinese drugs designations like priority review and breakthrough therapy, once reserved for top-tier Western innovations.

While the absolute number of approvals still trails behind the U.S., the growth trend is unmistakable. “It wouldn’t be sensationalist to suggest that China will overtake the US in the next few years purely in terms of numbers,” said Daniel Chancellor of Norstella.

A notable example is a blood cancer cell therapy developed by Legend Biotech in China, now marketed globally with Johnson & Johnson, and seen as superior to a U.S.-developed rival.

Bloomberg writes that global pharmaceutical companies are taking notice. Deals involving Chinese biotech firms are increasing in size and frequency. Summit Therapeutics paid $500 million upfront for rights to a Chinese cancer drug that outperformed Merck’s Keytruda in a local trial.

Pfizer recently set a record with a $1.2 billion upfront payment to 3SBio for a similar therapy. “They can leapfrog competitors in other countries,” said Andy Liu of Novotech, a clinical research firm.

China’s edge comes from its ability to conduct drug research faster and more cheaply, thanks to its centralized hospital system and large patient base. Early-stage cancer and obesity trials in China can enroll patients in half the time it takes in the U.S. Still, Chinese firms must show their results hold up across diverse populations to gain regulatory approval in the U.S. and Europe.

The innovation surge is being led by both foreign-educated startup founders and legacy firms like Jiangsu Hengrui, which pivoted from generics to R&D after domestic policy changes. From 2020 to 2024, 20 of the world’s top 50 companies for new drug candidates were Chinese, up from just five in the previous five years.

“As we move forward, the fact that there’s high quality innovation in China... will no longer be a novelty,” said Ali Pashazadeh of Treehill Partners. “It’ll just be an accepted part of the norm.”

Still, the U.S. sees biotech as part of a broader strategic rivalry. “Biotech is one of the forefronts of the US-China tech rivalry,” said Jack Burnham from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 17:20

Jeffrey Epstein Hired Private Goons To Harass FBI Agents: Report

Authored by Ken Silva via HeadlineUSA,

Rolling Stone reported Monday that notorious sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein hired private investigators to follow, intimidate and spy on FBI agents who were investigating him in the mid- to late-2000s.

Jeffrey Epstein/New York State Sex Offender Registry via AP

“They put surveillance on them, they tailed them, pulled their trash, they hired private PIs to investigate the investigators,” one official, who wasn’t named, told the magazine. The official added that a special agent eventually moved to a gated community in an effort to reduce the constant harassment.

The tactics described by the official were similar to what happened to Palm Beach police officers.

Exclusive: Jeffrey Epstein hired private investigators to follow, intimidate, and surveil FBI agents who were investigating him two decades ago, law enforcement officials tell Rolling Stonehttps://t.co/xg9P6WEBkRhttps://t.co/xg9P6WEBkR

— Rolling Stone (@RollingStone) July 15, 2025

“Police reports show that Epstein’s private investigators attempted to conduct interviews while posing as cops; that they picked through Reiter’s trash in search of dirt to discredit him; and that the private investigators were accused of following the girls and their families,” the Herald reported in 2018. “In one case, the father of one girl claimed he had been run off the road by a private investigator, police and court reports show.”

The Rolling Stone report follows last week’s two-page statement from the Justice Department and the FBI, which concluded that Epstein had no clients. The conclusion has outraged Trump supporters, who pointed to past statements from several administration officials that the list ought to be revealed.

Attorney General Pam Bondi had suggested in February that Epstein’s “client list” was sitting on her desk waiting for review, though last week she said she had been referring generally to the Epstein case file and not a specific client list.

Conservative influencers have since demanded to see all the files related to Epstein’s crimes, even as Trump has tried to put the issue to bed.

Over a decade after the FBI’s first investigation, Epstein was arrested again on July 6, 2019, on federal charges for the sex trafficking of minors in Florida and New York.

Epstein’s death was ruled a suicide by hanging after he was found dead in his jail cell on August 10, 2019. But his lawyers contested that claim. Skeptics point to malfunctioning surveillance cameras, sleeping guards, and broken bones in Epstein’s neck as indications that his death was something other than suicide.

Because of Epstein’s extensive fraternization with high-profile politicians and celebrities such as Bill Clinton, former Israeli PM Ehud Barak, Prince Andrew and Bill Gates and many more, some claim that Epstein’s death was actually a hit job to silence him. Proponents of that theory include Maxwell, who’s serving a 20-year prison sentence for sex trafficking.

“I believe that he was murdered. I was shocked, and I wondered, ‘How did this happen?’ Because I was sure he was going to appeal, and I was sure he was covered by the non-prosecution agreement,” Maxwell told British reporter Jeremy Kyle of TalkTV in 2023.

The non-prosecution agreement referenced by Maxwell was a sweetheart deal Epstein signed with the Department of Justice in 2008, in which he pleaded guilty to a state charge of procuring for prostitution a girl below the age of 18. Epstein was housed in a private wing of the Palm Beach County Stockade, and was reportedly allowed to leave the jail on “work release” for up to 12 hours a day.

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 17:00

Tropical Threat Brewing Off Florida, Gulf Of America Offshore Oil & Gas Rigs In Crosshairs

Meteorologists are closely monitoring Invest 93-L, a disorganized area of low pressure situated off Florida's east coast on Tuesday morning. Conditions appear increasingly favorable for gradual development, and there is a growing likelihood that the system could strengthen into a tropical depression—or potentially a tropical storm—later this week.

"East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): Satellite and radar data indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized," the National Hurricane Center wrote in an update. 

NHC expects the system to "move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday," adding that "conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf."

As AL93 tracks over Central Florida towards the Gulf of America, spaghetti models provide a snapshot of agreement among various forecasts that show the storm's track towards the coastal area of Louisiana, which is home to one of the highest concentrations of offshore oil and gas platforms in the world.

Spaghetti Models

Oil/Gas Assets in Gulf of America

All eyes are on AL93 heading into Wednesday, with growing concern over potential operational risks for offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 16:40

'Crypto Week' Stalls On Failed Procedural Vote As Stablecoins Dominate Bitcoin Banter

Update (1500ET): In a blow for Republicans' 'crypto week', a House procedural vote on the crypto measures failed to pass.

The House voted 196-222 against taking a step needed to begin consideration of three industry-backed bills including one on stablecoin regulation.

House conservatives have previously blocked procedural steps to show discontent.

Republican “no” votes included Reps. Ann Paulina Luna (Fla.), Scott Perry (Pa.), Chip Roy (Texas), Victoria Spartz (Ind.), Michael Cloud (Texas), Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Andy Harris (Md.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.) and Andy Biggs (Ariz.).

It wasn’t immediately clear what impact the vote would have on the legislation, which still could be considered if leaders muster sufficient support.

Johnson told reporters after the vote that the hardline critics want to link the cryptocurrency bills into one product, which is why they torpedoed the procedural vote:

“Some members who really, really want to emphasize the House‘s product, as you know, Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act,” Johnson said.

“We have our bills as well, they want to push that and merge that together. We’re trying to work with the White House and with our Senate partners on this. I think everybody is insistent that we’re gonna do all three, but some of these guys insist that it needs to be all in one package.”

The House can take up the procedural vote again, but the timing is now unclear.

*  *  *

Standard Chartered's Global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendricks, was surprised last week that, after meeting with a combination of crypto-natives, Bitcoin miners, leveraged and real money funds, digital asset tokenisers and policy makers; despite fresh all-time highs in bitcoin, 90% of the conversations were spent talking about stablecoins.

Interest in stablecoins in the US is surging ahead of the GENIUS Act passing into law (possibly as soon as this week).

As such, discussion centered on implications for UST issuance and eventually curve shape, USD direction, US policy surrounding payments networks, and the potential for stablecoin adoption to lead to financial-stability concerns in selected emerging markets.

In terms of how large the stablecoin market needs to be to unleash those second-order effects, discussions homed in on USD 750bn (current market size: USD 240bn).

That would likely be towards end-2026, by which time clients think that stablecoin issuance will have broadened significantly (in the wake of the GENIUS Act) to include relatively large offerings by banks and perhaps even small offerings by local municipalities.

On the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the consensus seems to be that it will pass by late September/early October, which is sooner than I had expected. This act may have implications for decentralised finance and the tokenisation of real-world assets.

Implications for emerging markets

Stablecoin discussions focused mostly on practical considerations surrounding stablecoin adoption, including both planned and unintentional outcomes of such, as well as potential feedback loops to existing traditional finance (TradFi) assets. The starting point of such discussions was that currently, large wallets and centralised exchanges (CEXs) together account for 90% of all stablecoins. Wallets greater than USD 10mn account for 28%, wallets of USD 500k to USD 10mn account for 23% and wallets of USD 10k to USD 500k account for 15%. CEXs account for a further 25% (Figure 1).

Further, the dominance of large wallets has increased during the last three years. During the decentralised finance (DeFi) boom of 2021, CEX holdings dominated, followed by decentralised exchanges (DEXs) and DeFi. While trading on/off ramp remains important for digital assets – albeit more in CEXs than DEXs and DeFi at present – other uses for stablecoins are now becoming much more important.

‘Other uses’ of stablecoins can be split into store of wealth and transactional purposes. So far, store of wealth dominates (there is no widespread need to hold such large amounts in a wallet for transactional purposes). This store-of-wealth rationale is that savings that seek access to a USD bank account (presumably in emerging markets) do so via stablecoins. Indeed, individuals who need to protect their assets in a liquid, trustworthy form are using stablecoins as a secure store of wealth. The requirement for such individuals is return of capital, not return on capital.

The immediate implication of using stablecoins in this way is that the total assumed size of emerging-market demand for stablecoins (across both store of value and transactional uses) may be higher than I had previously assumed.

The next implication is that if large amounts of savings are leaving emerging markets (note: it is impossible to tell exactly where the money is coming from) then those emerging markets that need USD liquidity to maintain fixed exchange rates, capital controls and assist the local banking sector may at some stage find each of these more difficult to manage.

Financial stability issues may ensue.

Implications for developed markets

In developed markets, a useful starting point is that after GENIUS passes, the initial use case will likely be transactional by both developed market corporate treasury functions as well as semi-financial firms that would benefit from the core benefits of stablecoins – they are becoming faster, cheaper and more secure than traditional payments methods.

While the emerging markets’ use of stablecoins may be greater than I had expected (all of which should create new demand for stablecoin reserves, i.e., T-bills), there was some discussion about the amount of reserves required for developed markets’ stablecoin use.

Specifically, the uncertainty centres on two points.

• First, to what degree will corporates’ stablecoin use (stablecoin require 100% reserve backing) replace their current cash holdings that are parked in off-chain money market funds (i.e., T-bills)? This question requires further analysis. My initial view is that at a minimum, the overall financial payments system will transition from one of bank credit creation (which requires low asset backing) to one of stablecoin use (which requires 100% backing). This implies a large amount of fresh T-bill demand from developed markets, but the exact amount is unknown.

• The second uncertainty, which also applies to emerging market transactional use cases, has to do with velocity of stablecoins. As more transactional uses emerge, velocity will increase; the question is by how much? The answer will determine how many stablecoins are ultimately needed and, therefore, the extent of fresh T-bill demand.

To sum up my view on these points, in my previous report I estimated USD 1.6tn of fresh T-bill demand by the end of 2028; but the confidence interval in both directions (more or less T-bill demand) is, by definition, wide.

Another developed market point that was discussed was how prolific new stablecoin issuers would be after GENIUS passes.

Some argued that the incumbents (USDT and USDC) would likely be most prolific, at least for a while. However, others believed that the issue size of new issuers (banks) may become larger than I thought and that even municipalities may issue their own stablecoins (implying broader issuance than I thought).

How big do stablecoins need to be to have TradFi implications?

At some point the stablecoin market will likely become so large that it starts to have implications for TradFi assets and policies.

In the US, once the stablecoin market gets to a certain size, the amount of T-bills required to back stablecoins will likely require a shift in planned issuance across the curve towards more T-bill issuance, less longer-tenor issuance.

This potentially has implications for the shape of the US Treasury yield curve and demand for USD assets (and hence the USD).

Discussions tended to focus on a level where USD 1tn is in sight, somewhere around USD 750bn. Figure 2 implies that this will be towards the end of 2026.

In terms of broader US policies around financial stability, the same level came up a number of times as being when the stablecoin sector would become systemically important and hence in need of macro-prudential measures. Discussions then also focused on regulatory challenges of non-banks having some control over the payments system as a whole. Questions around money supply control and hence transmission of monetary policy were also raised.

Clarity Act

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was introduced in the US House of Representatives in May 2025. It aims to create a regulatory framework for digital assets and digital commodities. My impression is that the administration is focused on late September/early October for the Clarity Act to pass into law. This is earlier than I had previously assumed (year-end) and would be a positive surprise for the asset class.

There will also be specific implications for the tokenisation market. I had previously argued that the initial winners in the tokenisation space would be those that generate on-chain liquidity for assets which are illiquid off-chain (see RWA tokenisation – A growth opportunity). However, meetings on this suggested that if DeFi can be unleashed following the Clarity Act (specifically if tokenised assets can be deposited on AAVE) then tokenised assets expansion may be broader, and might include tokenised public equities, for example (as DeFi leverage capabilities of such assets would be significant).

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 15:00

Cal State Prof Arrested, Accused Of Assaulting ICE Agents During Cannabis Farm Raid

Authored by Emily Sturge via Campus Reform,

A California State University Channel Islands (CSUCI) professor was arrested July 10 after allegedly assaulting law enforcement agents during a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operation targeting illegal labor at marijuana farms. 

Jonathan Anthony Caravello, a math and philosophy lecturer, is among four U.S. citizens “being criminally processed for assaulting or resisting officers” during coordinated ICE raids at Glass House Farms cannabis grow sites in Camarillo and Carpinteria, California, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Caravello is accused of throwing a tear gas canister at ICE agents during the protest, which occurred near the CSUCI campus.

Protesters reportedly “attempted to intercept” officers by “throwing rocks” at federal vehicles, “shattering windows and windshields,” CBS News reports.

One protester allegedly fired a pistol at officers. 

The California Faculty Association (CFA), an “anti-racism, social justice” labor union comprised of 29,000 California State University faculty members, is defending Caravello, claiming he was peacefully protesting and accusing federal agents of kidnapping him.

⚠️ MISSING PERSON ⚠️

Jonathan Anthony Caravello
DOB: 02/16/1988
Professor at CSU Channel Islands

Kidnapped by unidentified ICE agents at 2:33pm, Thursday July 10th at Las Posas Rd/Laguna Rd community ICE defense protest.

— California Faculty Association (@CFA_United) July 12, 2025

The CFA doubled down in a press release, calling Caravello’s arrest an “abduction.”

“We strongly condemn the abduction of California Faculty Association professor, member and activist Jonathan A. Caravello, Ph.D. and other community members terrorized and arrested by federal immigration authorities while exercising their constitutional rights to protest peacefully,” the CFA wrote. 

U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California Bill Essayli debunked the “kidnapped” allegation and said Caravello will appear in court on Monday. 

Professor Jonathan Caravello was not “kidnapped” by federal agents. He was arrested for throwing a tear gas canister at law enforcement. He is charged with a violation of 18 USC 111 and will have a court appearance tomorrow. https://t.co/QrIivjrthd

— U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli (@USAttyEssayli) July 13, 2025

Federal law states that a violation of 18 USC 111 means “assaulting, resisting, or impeding certain officers or employees,” according to Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute.

CSUCI defended Caravello in a written statement:

“At this time, it is our understanding that Professor Caravello was peacefully participating in a protest – an act protected under the First Amendment and a right guaranteed to all Americans,” the statement reads. 

“If confirmed, we stand with elected officials and community leaders calling for his immediate release,” it continues. 

An important notification from CSUCI: Statement about Professor Jonathan Caravello being taken into federal custody during a protest. https://t.co/7knmXShvwH pic.twitter.com/aHlRGmYS26

— CSU Channel Islands (@csuci) July 12, 2025

Meanwhile, the California Faculty Association is urging supporters to contribute monetary donations for bail and legal fees for Caravello.

The association is also asking individuals to write “Character Reference” letters that will “go before the judge when setting bail” and encouraging individuals to “sign up for a jail support shift so John has someone waiting when he is released.”

Screenshots of social media posts shared by @cfa_united on Instagram.

Members of the CFA held a candlelight vigil Sunday night for the individuals “abducted in the Camarillo farm raids.” 

During the cannabis farm raids, law enforcement reportedly arrested at least 361 illegal aliens from both sites and rescued at least 14 children from potential exploitation, forced labor, and human trafficking, DHS confirmed in a press release. 

The group advertised the vigil on Instagram with the hashtag “#FreeJohnCaravello.”

Screenshots of social media posts shared by @cfa_crew on Instagram.

Campus Reform reviewed Caravello’s student evaluations on the website RateMyProfessors.com.

One anonymous student warned: “If you want a professor that tries to bring his political commentary or agenda into absolutely every possible situation, then this professor is for you. Don’t bother trying to debate politics with him because any retort you bring up will immediately be shut down.”

Screenshot obtained from RateMyProfessors.com.

Campus Reform is monitoring updates to this story and has contacted Jonathan Anthony Caravello, California State University Channel Islands, and the California Faculty Association for further updates and comment. This article will be updated accordingly. 

As of July 14, spokespeople from the California State University Channel Islands and California Faculty Association told Campus Reform there are no updates or additional information to share at this time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 14:40

These Are The 10 Least Livable Cities In The World

While some cities are celebrated for their high quality of life, others are plagued by deep-rooted challenges that make daily life difficult and dangerous in many cases.

From ongoing wars and political instability to inadequate infrastructure, this map, via Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu, shows the 10 least livable cities in the world, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global Liveability Index 2025.

The index ranks cities on over 30 factors across five categories to determine their overall livability. Factors include:

• Stability: Prevalence of crime, terror, military conflict, civil unrest/conflict

• Healthcare: Availability and quality of private and public healthcare, general healthcare indicators

• Culture and environment: Humidity/temperature rating, cultural and sporting availability, social or religious restrictions

• Education: Availability and quality of private education, public education indicators

• Infrastructure: Quality of road network, public transport, international links, availability of good housing

What is the Least Livable City in the World?

Below, we show the 10 least livable cities in the world according to The Economist, and their livability scores.

Damascus, the capital of Syria, remains the world’s least livable city in 2025.

Despite a dramatic regime change in Syria in late 2024, the effects of over a decade of civil war have left the capital with shattered infrastructure, limited access to health care and low levels of public safety.

The overall score for Damascus is nearly 10 points lower than that of the next-worst city, Tripoli, Libya.

Tripoli, Libya’s capital, continues to struggle with political instability, factional fighting, and collapsed public services. Like Damascus, it showed no improvement over previous years.

Kyiv continues to rank near the bottom amid Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia, which has severely impacted its infrastructure and safety.

Overall, the bottom of The Economist’s livability rankings is largely filled by cities from the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia.

The average score for livability in 2025 was 76.1 out of 100, the same as 2024. However, scores in the stability category have continue to decline amid widespread geopolitical tension and civil unrest around the world.

To see which cities ranked as the most livable cities of 2025, check out this graphic on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 14:20

Gold Revaluation: Trump's Red Button Option?

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Could a gold revaluation be on Trump’s mind? Below, we consider the options facing a debt-sick America.

A Bug Racing for a Windshield

As we’ve been warning for years, the US and USD are a bug rapidly seeking a debt-hard windshield.

The trend and speed of this collision (and debt trap) are becoming increasingly more obvious with each passing day and headline.

In simplest terms, as US debt levels soar moon-bound, trust and interest in its IOUs (and the currency/dollar backing those IOUs) are sinking toward the ocean floor.

The evidence of such otherwise “dramatic” statements is literally everywhere.

Hard Questions

For example, although not at war, the US is running World War 2 debt-to-GDP ratios at the 120% level.

How did this happen? What’s the “emergency” behind this grotesque ratio?

And more importantly, how can Uncle Sam save himself?

Simple Answer

Answering the first question is fairly simple.

We arrived at this appalling turning point because the US has been getting debt drunk for decades.

Ever since Nixon took away the gold chaperone from the USD, politicians have been buying temporary prosperity, debt-based “growth” and duped voters by taking US public debt levels from $248B in 1971 to $37T (and counting) today.

This number alone is staggering.

Trillions Matter

The difference between “billions” and “trillions” is not merely alphabetical, it’s brutal.

1 BILLION seconds ago, for example, places us in 1997. Bit 1 TRILLION seconds ago places us at 30,000 BC.

Let that sink in for a moment.

If this shocks or bothers you, well… you’re not alone.

The World Has Called the USA’s Bluff

The rest of the world is shocked too, which explains why its central banks have been quietly net-dumping USTs and net-stacking physical gold since 2014.

This further explains why freezing the FX reserves of Russia in 2022 only accelerated the distrust of a now weaponized (and once neutral) world reserve currency.

De-Dollarization…

What followed was a well-telegraphed and carefully forewarned trend of de-dollarization from the BRICS+ coalition.

Tier-1 Status…

This trend took off around the very same time that the BIS, the mother of all central banks, officially classified gold as a Tier-1 reserve asset, making an open mockery of its “sister Tier-1 asset,” the UST.

Central Bank Gold Stacking…

Gold stacking by central banks, of course, continued to skyrocket at the same time:

COMEX Panic…

If such signs of US dollar and debt woes/distrust were not obvious enough, the COMEX and LBMA exchanges out of New York and London then began scurrying like headless chickens.

Why?

Because they were trying to find enough physical gold to meet delivery demands to get the gold off of these exchanges, which, since 1974, were once just derivative schemes used to manipulate rather than deliver gold.

But the hidden facts (and implications) were far simpler. Counterparties to this legalized price-fixing scam now wanted their actual gold more than their paper contracts.

Why? 

Because they saw physical gold’s growing, inevitable and superior role in a future monetary system moving away from the debt-discredited USD and UST.

Petrodollar Signposts…

To add insult to the USD’s injury, a growing and simultaneous trend away from the petrodollar during the same period was as obvious as it was media-ignored.

But the message was clear: Faith in a USD-driven future was openly in decline.

The Denial Stage?

Defenders of the USD, of course, were quick and right to remind the world that no other nation or currency could beat or replace the mighty Dollar.

After all, it is the world’s reserve currency.

It still holds the majority position in global FX reserves and, let’s be honest, neither China, Russia, nor any other nation has the reputation or bond market to replace the dollar, right?

Right.

Reality Check: Gold’s Future in a Fiat Swamp

But, here’s the kicker.

Nations like China or Russia aren’t trying to replace the USD with their Ruble or Yuan.

They, like the rest of the world, are slowly going to replace the USD with gold.

This doesn’t mean a gold-backed world reserve currency, just a gold-based world settlement system.

China Playing Chess

Take China as an obvious example.

They have no problem de-valuing their fiat currency when measured against gold, an asset they’ve been quietly stacking and misreporting for decades in a chess game of common sense as the USA plays checkers with QE.

Nor does China have much love for USTs…

As I type this, China continues to pair gold to the oil it imports from Russia and Iran (conveniently dubbed “evil” by the weaponized US media).

In just over a decade, China’s gold-to-oil ratio was 8 barrels of oil to one ounce of gold. Today, that same ounce of gold buys China 50 barrels of oil.

Meanwhile, China has no problem seeing its Yuan price of gold rise from 7000/ounce in 2014 to 24,000/ounce today.

In short, the Yuan has collapsed against gold but not against the USD.

But China can live with this for the simple reason that it sees a gold-based new world order, and it has been stacking that gold for years.

Why?

Because the BIS, the IMF, and, of course, the BRICS+ nations see a world in which gold is superior to the debt-discredited USD as a strategic reserve asset.

Gold: Far More than an “Allocation”

Gold is no longer an allocation, hedge or subject of debate—it is the future of global trade and currency settlements. Period.

My colleague, Egon von Greyerz, saw this decades ago.

Of even date, for example, gold is now 20 % of global FX reserves. The USD percentage is falling dramatically to a 46% position, and the Euro holds a 16% slot.

But if central backs and BRICS+ nations continue to stack gold at current levels, gold may not be an official “world reserve currency” in substance or title, but it will be the new leading FX reserve asset in both title and power.

In sum, each of the foregoing themes, of which we have detailed and warned in numerous prior articles, explains the debt “emergency” facing the USD.

The Real Question: What Can the USA Do Now?

But what about the corollary question? That is: What options do the US have left to solve its debt (and hence currency) crisis?

This, too, has been on our minds for years.

More Fantasy Money?

Ultimately, there are no easy solutions or good scenarios left.

The MMT fantasy, for example, of solving a debt crisis with more debt that is paid for with mouse-clicked money has been tried in earnest since the QE guns took the Fed from a pre-08 balance sheet of $800B to a 2022 high of nearly $9T.

As reminded above, that difference between a Billion and Trillion is just plain madness.

The US, faced with solving its debt crisis (and bond market) at the expense of its paper dollar, is running out of time, options and global patience.

So, again—what can the US do today?

More War?

For Hemingway, at least, the most obvious next step is further currency debasement and war, which the past, current and even future headlines seem to confirm, from the Middle East to Eastern Europe:

But with distrust in US politics and foreign policies rising in alternative media platforms highlighting left and right scandals on everything from Russia-Gate laptops to Epstein cover-ups and AIPAC-guided uh-ohs, trust in the left and right stirrups of the DC saddle is tanking at a rapid rate.

Re-sets, DOGE Cuts & Tariff Walls?

Meanwhile, the IMF has been telegraphing a great reset since COVID, and the current Trump administration has been trying to use DOGE cuts and tariff wars to bring debt and spending levels down.

But regardless of one’s political bias, let’s be mathematical: None of these policies is enough, and none of them, as of today, are even working – as the Elon/Trump social media war intensifies in a backdrop of rising rather than falling deficit levels.

More Financial Repression?

I also expect, and have warned of, more financial repression and capital controls around the corner.

But again, not much of a solution given current and future debt levels, debased dollars (worst DXY Q3 in 40 years) and a middle class already on its knees.

The Red Button Option: Gold Revaluation?

But DC has another option, which even the Fed’s recent May 2025 Manual openly hints toward.

I call it the “red-button option” of a radical gold revaluation to effectively use a precious metal (rather than a Fed mouse-click) to achieve QE-like monetization without having to issue more unloved USTs.

One can read the Fed’s lengthy May report on their own, but the Fed-speak boils down to this:

The Fed can add gold certificates to its balance sheet, which can then become assets of the Treasury Department’s TGA account to pay down a sliver of its $37-TRILLION-dollar public debt.

But the trillion-dollar question remains: How will these $42.00 gold certificates be re-valued?

Doing the Math

In a February Forbes article, for example, there was talk of marking these certificates to market.

If that were the case, the 8131 tons of US gold (roughly 260 million ounces) at the current spot price would give Uncle Sam about $850B in instant new money to pay off some debts.

This is nice, but hardly a solution to getting the aforementioned 120% debt-to-GDP figure down to pre-08 levels at a ratio compelling enough to restore trust in—and demand for—Uncle Sam’s unwanted IOUs.

But what if the US government put in a bid for $20,000 gold?

This would create a new price floor for the precious metal while simultaneously placing newly revalued gold certificates ahead of UST’s and mortgage-backed-securities on the Fed’s balance sheet?

Sound crazy?

If you read the May Fed Report, they hint at such a balance sheet “example” but shy away from naming a new price valuation on the gold certificates.

This means we can only guess at what comes next.

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures?

But desperate times require desperate measures, and there is nothing more desperate than the USA (and balance sheet) in its current form.

An emergency gold re-valuation of $20,000, by way of just one example (perhaps lower, perhaps higher?), would create instant trillions in liquidity to address Uncle Sam’s otherwise mathematically unsustainable bar tab.

Such a measure would buy time for US IOUs and votes for a beleaguered White House.

Such considerations, once thought extreme, must now be considered with desperate seriousness in a backdrop of only desperate options.

Nixon made a radical change in 1971. Can a red-button gold revaluation in 2025 or 2026 be equally ignored?

Let’s wait and see.

Be Careful of What You Wish For

And regardless of whether the inflationary red button is pushed or not, gold wins either way, as the dollar’s purchasing power in such a debt landscape has no absolute direction left to it other than downward.

Gold, as the ultimate, most stable, stacked and historically most trusted anti-fiat asset, has no direction left than upward.

Let’s also not forget that if gold is so re-valued, then the nation with the most gold will have the most leverage in this new system.

But as I’ve suggested elsewhere, that nation is more likely to be China than the USA. It has a lot more gold than the World Gold Council reports…

If so, like all empires whose average hegemonic age hovers around 250 years, the era of the American empire is coming to an obvious turning point, no matter how you stack it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 14:00

New York Man Charged With Stealing Half A Million Dollars Worth Of Gold Bars

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A New York man was charged for allegedly being involved in the theft of more than $500,000 worth of gold bars from an elderly resident in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, the Ephrata Police Department said.

Zhong Ren, 44, of Brooklyn, New York, was charged on July 10 with multiple offenses, including theft by unlawful taking, criminal conspiracy of theft by deception, and impersonating a public servant.

He was arrested after an elderly resident of Ephrata, Pennsylvania, filed a police report in April about the theft of gold bars valued at $555,892, according to the police department.

Police suspected that Ren was one of the individuals who deceived the victim into using her lifetime investment savings to buy physical gold bars to protect her money from a purported theft threat, which was a fabrication by the scammers.

The scammers allegedly gained access to the victim’s computer in March and told her that someone was trying to withdraw funds from her investment accounts, the police department stated.

The victim was instructed to convert her lifetime investment money into physical gold bars and hand them over to federal employees, who would then store the gold bars in the Federal Reserve vault in Philadelphia while a supposed fraud investigation was underway.

In April, individuals posing as federal employees came to the victim’s house in Ephrata on two separate occasions to collect the gold bars, the police department said.

Police said that law enforcement authorities believe that Ren is a member of an “international criminal organization” that orchestrates such fraudulent schemes.

Ren was arraigned, and his bail was set at $550,000. He is currently being held at Lancaster County Prison. It is unclear whether Ren has been assigned legal representation at the time of writing.

The El Cerrito Police Department in California has previously issued warnings to the public about gold bar scams, saying the schemes have become increasingly prevalent nationwide.

In a June 12 Facebook post, the police department urged the public to be wary of contacts from unknown numbers or individuals claiming to represent legitimate organizations.

It stated that gold bar schemes often involve scammers impersonating government officials or tech support representatives. The perpetrators will try to convince the victims to convert their money into gold bars by claiming that their financial accounts have been compromised or are vulnerable to hacking.

“Scammers often create a sense of urgency and fear to pressure victims into acting quickly,” it stated. “No legitimate organization will ask you to convert your savings into gold and hand them over to a courier.”

The public is advised not to provide any information to the caller, to verify the legitimacy of the contact by directly reaching out to the organization the caller claims to represent, and to report the scam to the police.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 13:20

Trump's "Major Statement" On Russia Is A Clumsy Attempt To Thread The Needle

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

His threatened secondary sanctions could majorly backfire by harming the US’ own interests.

The “major statement” on Russia that Trump earlier hyped up turned out to be a clumsy attempt to thread the needle between radically escalating US involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict and walking away from it. His new three-pronged approach includes:

1) the rapid dispatch of up to 17 Patriot missile systems to Ukraine;

2) more arms sales to NATO countries who’ll in turn transfer them to Ukraine; and

3) up to 100% secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners if a peace deal isn’t reached in 50 days.

In the order that they were mentioned, each corresponding move is aimed at:

1) bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses in order to decelerate the pace of Russia’s continual on-the-ground gains;

2) helping Ukraine reconquer some of its lost land; and

3) coercing China and India into pressuring Russia into a ceasefire.

The first two goals are self-explanatory, with the second being unrealistic given the failure of Ukraine’s much more heavily armed counteroffensive in summer 2023, while the third requires some elaboration.

China and India’s large-scale imports of discounted Russian oil have served as crucial valves from Western sanctions pressure by helping to stabilize the ruble and thus Russia’s economy in general. Even though these imports also help their own economies, Trump is wagering that they’ll at the very least curtail them in order to avoid his threatened 100% secondary sanctions. He might make an exception for the Europeans and Turks, who also purchase Russian resources, on the pretext of them arming Ukraine.

By focusing on Russia’s two largest energy importers, Trump is trying to greatly reduce the budgetary revenue that the Kremlin receives from these sales while sowing further divisions within the RIC core of BRICS and the SCO, expecting as he is that at least China or India will partially comply at minimum. Prior to his deadline, he envisages that their leaders – who are years-long close friends with Putin – will try to pressure him into the ceasefire that the West wants, though it’s unknown whether they’d succeed.

In any case, Trump is poised to place himself in a dilemma entirely of his own making if one of them doesn’t comply with his demand to stop trading with Russia, or if one or both only do so in part. He’d either have to delay the imposition of his threatened 100% secondary sanctions on all their imports, lower the level, or reduce the scale to only apply to their companies that still trade with Russia otherwise there could be serious blowback, especially if China is the one that doesn’t fully comply.

His preliminary trade agreement with China, which he described in early May as a “total reset” in their ties, could collapse and thus raise prices across the board for Americans. As regards India, their ongoing trade talks could collapse too, which could create an opening for advancing the nascent Sino-Indo rapprochement whose existence was cautiously confirmed by its top diplomat on Monday. Each case of blowback, let alone both of them at the same time, could be very detrimental to American interests.

Trump’s attempt to thread the needle therefore isn’t just clumsy, but it could also majorly backfire, thus raising the question of why he agreed to do so.

It looks like he was misled into thinking that Putin would agree to a ceasefire that doesn’t resolve the root security-related causes of the conflict in exchange for a resource-centric strategic partnership.

When Putin declined, Trump took it personally and imagined that Putin was playing him, which led to Trump’s advisors manipulating him into this escalation as vengeance.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 12:00

DoJ, CFTC End Biden-Era Probe Into Polymarket

Nine months after what Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan called a “last-ditch effort” to go after companies deemed to be associated with President Biden’s political opponents, the Trump administration's Department of Justice has shut down two investigations into the crypto-betting platform.

Polymarket CEO, Shayne Coplan

Bloomberg reports, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, that the predictions exchange received formal notice earlier this month from the US Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission that the probes had ended.

Polymarket’s popularity surged during last year’s election campaigns as users flocked to the platform to place cryptocurrency wagers on the outcome.

But that also drew investigators, examining whether the site was accepting trades from US-based users in violation of a previous settlement with federal regulators.

Bloomberg reports that The CFTC had its own investigation into the platform. The derivatives regulator, which oversees prediction platforms because their contracts are considered akin to swaps, had entered into a settlement with Polymarket in January 2022 over allegations it failed to register with the agency.

As part of the deal, Polymarket vowed to wall off US traders from its exchange.

Both the CFTC and Justice Department lawyers in Manhattan were investigating whether the New York-based platform continued accepting wagers from people in the US using virtual private networks or other means to bypass the company’s controls. The prediction market notched about $2.6 billion in trading volume in November.

The situation escalated dramatically a week after the November elections, when FBI agents carried out a pre-dawn raid at the Soho penthouse of CEO Shayne Coplan.

The decisions are the latest example of US authorities reversing course on Biden-era actions involving digital-asset firms, and comes as some in Washington are celebrating what’s being billed as “Crypto Week” with plans to usher in industry-backed rules that have sent the price of Bitcoin to a record.

Polymarket has been building a war chest with new investment rounds led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.

It also recently announced a partnership with Elon Musk’s X and xAI to offer event forecasts on the social media platform.

The resolution of the two investigations may even pave the way for Polymarket to officially re-enter the US market.

That could include registering with the CFTC as a futures exchange or potentially acquiring another entity with a CFTC license.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 11:45

Tariff-ic! Core Consumer Price Inflation Cooler Than Expected In June

Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time? Or will the excuse factory be required to spin the Trump-policy-driven price hike expectations as coming next time?

Expectations were for a modest acceleration in prices in June and headline Consumer Prices did just that rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (up from +2.4% prior and hotter than the +2.6% YoY expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

The MoM acceleration was driven by a flip from deflation to inflation for Energy prices...

Source: Bloomberg

New and Used Car prices are dropping!!!

That's not supposed to happen...

CPI Highlights: the index for shelter rose 0.2% in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9% in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0% over the month. The index for food increased 0.3% as the index for food at home rose 0.3% and the index for food away from home rose 0.4% in June.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% increase in May. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and airline fares were among the major indexes that decreased in June.

The headline CPI YoY is the hottest since February but Core CPI printed cooler than expected (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) with the YoY rise higher at +2.9% (as expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Goods prices are accelerating on a YoY basis...

Source: Bloomberg

More details on Core CPI which rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% 3 estimate:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% over the month. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in June and the index for rent increased 0.2%.

  • Conversely, the lodging away from home index fell 2.9% in June.

• The household furnishings and operations index rose 1.0% in June, after rising 0.3% in May.

• The index for recreation increased 0.4% over the month.

• The apparel index increased 0.4% in June and the personal care index rose 0.3%.

• In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 0.7% in June after declining 0.5 percent in May.

  • The new vehicles index fell 0.3 percent over the month, and the airline fares index declined 0.1 percent.

• The medical care index increased 0.5% over the month, following a 0.3-percent increase in May.

  • The index for hospital and related services increased 0.4 percent in June as did the index for prescription drugs.

  • The physicians’ services index rose 0.2 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.9% over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 3.8% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+2.8%), motor vehicle insurance (+6.1%), household furnishings and operations (+3.3%), and recreation (+2.1%).

This is the 5th monthly 'miss' for Core CPI in a row - the sky is falling analyst crowd continues to be wrong...

Source: Bloomberg

Rent/Shelter inflation slowed in June...

• Rent inflation June 3.77% YoY, down from 3.80% in May and the lowest since Jan 2022

• Shelter inflation June 3.80% YoY, down from 3.86% in May and the lowest since Oct 2021

SuperCore CPI (Services ex-shelter) rose 0.36% MoM, lifting prices 3.34% YoY - highest since feb but well off the YTD highs

Source: Bloomberg

Medical Care Services costs are also starting to accelerate (not exactly tariff-driven)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a 3m- and 6m- annualized basis, there are no signs of the tariff-driven price hikes as yet...

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the damning evidence of terrifying tariff-flation that the establishment wants us to believe is coming...

No inflationary pass throughs. But they will absolutely, definitely show up next month, or maybe the month after, but certainly before 2030.
Because... "The lack of tariff inflation remains transitory" https://t.co/pbD9Cc3owN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2025

Developing...

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 11:37

Ron Paul: Mistrusting Government About Epstein And More...

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

Last week the Department of Justice announced that Jeffrey Epstein did not maintain a “client list” of prominent individuals who may have broken the law at Epstein’s private island. These individuals could be blackmailed by Epstein and whatever intelligence agencies were working with him.

In February, in response to a question about when Epstein’s client list would be made public, Attorney General Pam Bondi said she had it on her desk and would soon release it.

She now says she meant she had a file related to Epstein, not the Epstein client list.

The Justice Department also claimed it did a full investigation of the circumstances surrounding Epstein’s death and can definitively say that Epstein committed suicide even though an autopsy paid for by Epstein’s brother concluded that Epstein was likely murdered.

The Justice Department’s announcement last week was met with outrage, much of it coming from some of President’s Trump’s most prominent allies, such as popular media figures Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Benny Johnson.

The willingness of so many Trump allies to openly criticize the Epstein announcement and other actions like the bombing of Iran is a positive development. Advancing liberty requires that more people refuse to automatically trust government officials, whether concerning Epstein, wars, the economy, or other important matters.

Widespread questioning of government presents an opportunity for the liberty movement. Those who understand the philosophy, history, and economics of liberty can explain that it is not just that some government officials lie. Instead, all governments lie, and the more important the issue the bigger the lie. In fact, the modern state is built on a series of lies, including:

• that the moral prohibitions against murder and theft do not apply to the government,

• that government regulations protect consumers, workers, and small businesses from greedy corporations,

• that the best way to help the poor is through government bureaucracies, not private charities,

• that government bureaucrats know a child’s educational needs better than do the child’s parents,

• that the US government is justified in intervening in countries around the world because the US is an exceptional force for justice and liberty and its crusade for global democracy is worth the ending of many innocent lives,

• that the government has the moral authority to override personal health and lifestyle choices — such as whether to drink raw milk — for our own good,

• that foreign aid takes money from wealthy Americans to give to poor people in other countries,

• that a government-created central bank can print the way to prosperity while enabling a welfare-warfare state without causing a boom-bust business cycle and continuously reducing the average American’s standard of living through eroding the dollar’s purchasing power,

• that gun control, mass surveillance, and airport harassment keep us safe, and

• that government is the source of our rights so government can restrict or “modify” our rights at will.

Exposing such lies is key for restoring liberty. The good news is that the more mistrust of government grows the easier it will be to find people receptive to our message.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 11:25

Charting The U.S. Pharma Supply Chain As Trump Threatens 200% Tariffs 

President Trump's proposed 200% tariff on the pharmaceutical industry would not take effect immediately, instead allowing for a 1 to 1.5-year grace period. Over time, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain could undergo a massive shift, becoming less reliant on foreign-made drugs and medical supplies. The Trump administration currently views this dependency as a national security threat. 

One week ago, the president warned that long-awaited industry-wide tariffs would be announced "very soon" after a 232 investigation was launched in April. Even with a grace period, the delay will force a complete reconfiguration of overseas supply chains for domestic ones, which could have a significant impact on profit margins for 'Big Pharma' and even affect drug prices. 

"A 200% tariff would inflate production costs, compress profit margins, and risk supply chain disruptions, leading to drug shortages and higher prices for U.S. consumers," Barclays analysts wrote last week. 

UBS analysts warned that the Trump administration's 12- to 18-month tariff grace period is "insufficient," arguing that reshoring efforts would require a lot more time. 

"We would usually think of 4 to 5 years as the timeline to move commercial-scale manufacturing to a new site," the analysts wrote.

According to the industry trade group Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, even a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical imports could drive up U.S. drug prices by $51 billion annually, raising prices by as much as 12.9% if costs are passed on. The group slammed Trump's proposal as "counterproductive" to health outcomes. Yet, as we've come to understand, these tariffs are merely economic tools to secure better trade deals or, in this case, to force corporations to reshore production.

To visualize the U.S.' heavily dependent medical supply chain on overseas trading partners, research firm BryceTech released an in-depth graphic on Tuesday, highlighting the industry's deep overseas dependencies. The graphic suggests that significant domestic investment will be required—echoing UBS's view that a 12- to 18-month grace period is insufficient to reshore production at scale.

The illustration reinforces UBS's warning that a 12- to 18-month grace period is far too short to reshore production at scale, signaling the need for increased time. A larger takeaway is that these supply chains need to be reshored as the world fractures into a bipolar state, and definitely before the 2030s. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 11:05

Bud Light Still Struggling Years After Dylan Mulvaney Nuked Brand On TikTok 

Beer sales over the July 4th holiday weekend came in stronger than previously expected, prompting distributors to raise their outlook for the remainder of the year and fueling renewed optimism around Constellation Brands (STZ). Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) also posted a solid performance during the period, though one brand under its adult beverage umbrella remained a clear laggard. Unsurprisingly, it was Bud Light, still struggling to recover for reasons that need little explanation. 

In the latest iteration of Goldman's Beverage Bytes survey—covering 40 beer distributors and 125,000 retail outlets, or about 25% of all U.S. alcohol-selling locations—analysts led by Bonnie Herzog found that, although expectations were tempered heading into the holiday weekend due to soft scanner data, an uncertain macro environment, and weak Memorial Day trends, favorable summer weather trends across the Lower 48 during the July 4th holiday (which fell on a Friday) helped drive surprisingly strong beer demand. 

Herzog said, "As a result, distributors are now incrementally more upbeat about the all-important summer selling season and their growth outlook for the category this year." 

About 60% of respondents said sales were up year-over-year, with STZ and ABI emerging as the top performers. Brands such as Modelo Especial, Pacifico, and Sun Cruiser saw solid momentum, though Corona Extra continued to underperform. 

Here are the notable takeaways from the report:

• The promotional environment appeared broadly rational over the 4th of July holiday weekend - as 53% of beer volumes were promoted (in-line with last year) - though ABI was the clear standout in terms of promotional intensity;

• Most distributors indicated that beer category sales accelerated in Q2 vs Q1 - citing improved weather trends and strength for Mich Ultra and Busch Light (among others);

• Most distributors expect the second half of the year to be stronger vs the first half - with distributors now expecting category growth declines this year of only -1.0% (vs -1.9% expected in our Memorial Day survey);

• Volume trends for Modelo Especial & Pacifico were also quite strong over the holiday weekend - something the majority of distributors indicated - however, Corona Extra remains under some pressure; and

• Sun Cruiser remains a standout - and the majority of distributors indicated that volumes were up for the brand over the 4th of July holiday weekend vs last year. However, distributors highlighted the spending on Sun Cruiser is unsustainable and some raised concerns that the category is becoming saturated.

There was a lot to unpack in the holiday volume trends... 

Topline Results:

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) led all manufacturers, with 52% of distributors reporting higher volumes vs last year—followed by Constellation Brands (STZ) at 33% and Boston Beer (SAM) at 18%.

• Overall beer category performance improved: 40% of distributors reported year-over-year volume gains for July 4th (vs 20% on Memorial Day); 37% still saw declines.

• Hard seltzers remained weak: 64% of distributors reported volume declines, though this was a slight improvement from Memorial Day (70%).

By brand, Herzog noted twice that Bud Light "continues to struggle" and "remains pressured following the Bud Light controversy," more than two years after the brewer's woke marketing team—aiming to score DEI points—hired Dylan Mulvaney, a biological male acting as a woman, for what became one of the worst ad promotions ever in corproate America.

Refresher: This is who nuked the brand. 

JUST IN: Bud Light’s marketing Vice President Alissa Heinerscheid is taking a leave of absence.

Here she is slandering her customer base as “fratty and out of touch” as she defends the decision to hire a tranny to promote their products.

If Bud Light is smart, they will fire… pic.twitter.com/wJMkyitD8F

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 22, 2023

Brand highlights over the holiday weekend:

ABI (Anheuser-Busch InBev):

• Strongest performer overall.

• Michelob Ultra was a standout, with 93% of distributors seeing y/y gains (56% significantly).

• Bud Light remains a drag—74% reported lower volumes; marketing support remains weak.

Constellation Brands (STZ):

• Strong holiday weekend performance.

• Pacifico led, with 65% of distributors seeing gains.

• Modelo Especial also performed well (52% up), while Corona Extra continues to face challenges (47% down).

Molson Coors (TAP):

• Mixed performance.

• Coors Banquet was a bright spot (73% up).

• Coors Light and Miller Lite both underperformed, with 74% and 78% of distributors, respectively, reporting y/y declines.

Heineken (HEIN):

• Weak showing, with only 14% reporting growth and 46% noting volume declines.

Boston Beer (SAM):

• Modest improvement; Sun Cruiser stood out, with 72% of distributors reporting growth (44% significantly).

• Twisted Tea and Truly showed signs of pressure, with 35% and 76% of distributors respectively reporting declines.

Hard Seltzer Category:

• Remains under pressure. White Claw: 31% up, 41% down.

• High Noon: 40% up, 40% down slightly.

Our takeaway: Bud Light's struggles continue. Someone ought to write a white paper on why woke marketing nukes brands. Remember Jaguar earlier this year? These marketing teams lined with liberal college elites are completely out of touch with how the real world operates, and oblivious to the fact that the Overton Window has shifted to the center-right. Woke is over (for now). 

Pro subs can read the full note in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 09:05

DOGE Announces Billions Of Dollars In Federal Contracts Terminated

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said over the weekend that agencies have terminated more federal contracts worth as much as $2.8 billion.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) website is displayed on a phone, in this photo illustration. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

In a post on social media platform X on July 12, DOGE, a task force established by President Donald Trump in January, said that “over the last week, agencies terminated 230 wasteful contracts,” resulting in savings of $407 million.

That includes a contract from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for a “Mexico sustainable landscapes consultant” and a Treasury Department contract for “mentoring, evaluation, learning specialist services in Haiti,” according to the DOGE post. The post included what appears to be screenshots of the programs’ descriptions.

Earlier this month, DOGE’s website released an update that the task force has saved approximately $190 billion, which it says amounts to around $1,180 per taxpayer. So far, the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Education Department, Office of Personnel Management, and Department of Labor have initiated the most cuts, according to the site.

Meanwhile, DOGE’s database shows that around 11,700 contracts have been terminated across all federal agencies, with an estimated saving of around $44 billion. At the same time, around 15,500 federal grants have been slashed, it shows, worth some $44 billion.

The update from DOGE comes as the Senate is slated to vote on spending cuts this week that would claw back $9.4 billion in public media and foreign aid spending. Senate Democrats are trying to kill the measure but need a few Republicans to join them.

Trump has asked lawmakers to rescind nearly $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which represents the full amount it’s due to receive during the next two budget years.

On July 10, the president warned that he would withhold his backing for any Republican lawmaker who opposes the rescissions package, which also includes cuts to foreign aid.

“It is very important that all Republicans adhere to my Recissions Bill and, in particular, DEFUND THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING (PBS and NPR), which is worse than CNN & MSDNC put together,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Trump went on to say that “any Republican that votes to allow this monstrosity to continue broadcasting will not have my support or Endorsement.”

Other than Trump, the White House has said that the public media system is politically biased and an unnecessary expense.

The corporation distributes more than two-thirds of the money to more than 1,500 locally operated public television and radio stations, with much of the remainder assigned to National Public Radio and Public Broadcasting Service to support national programming.

The update from DOGE over the past weekend suggests that the organization is still engaged in activities to identify and root out what it deems to be fraud, waste, and abuse within the federal government, following the departure of former White House special government employee Elon Musk from the administration in late May.

Musk, who had effectively served as a spokesperson and leader for DOGE during his time in the White House, has since had a falling out with the Trump administration and Republicans, announcing earlier this month that he would form his own political party.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/15/2025 - 08:50