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Where Obesity Is Most Prevalent In The US

Where Obesity Is Most Prevalent In The US

Obesity is a major public health issue in the United States, affecting millions of Americans and placing a significant strain on the healthcare system.

Nationally, as Statista's Felix Richter reports, the U.S. has one of the highest obesity rates in the world, with over 40 percent of adults classified as obese.

This far exceeds the global average, making the U.S. a leader in obesity prevalence among developed nations. Obesity is linked to numerous health complications, including heart disease, diabetes and certain cancers, leading to higher mortality rates and increased healthcare costs.

However, obesity rates within the U.S. vary considerably between states.

 Where Obesity Is Most Prevalent in the U.S. | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to CDC data, southern and midwestern states, such as Mississippi, West Virginia and Alabama, consistently rank among the highest in obesity prevalence, often exceeding 40 percent.

In contrast, states like Colorado and Hawaii have significantly lower obesity rates, with Colorado and DC the only states/districts with obesity rates below 25 percent.

These disparities may be influenced by factors such as income, education, access to healthcare, cultural attitudes toward diet and exercise and even geographical factors that affect lifestyle habits.

Economic inequality plays a major role, as people in lower-income areas often have limited access to healthy foods and safe spaces for physical activity.

Additionally, educational disparities can affect awareness of healthy lifestyles, with lower obesity rates typically seen in states with higher levels of educational attainment.

Climate and geography also contribute, with states that offer more opportunities for outdoor recreation, such as Colorado, generally reporting lower obesity rates than regions with harsher climates or fewer recreational options.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 19:40

Trump's Toughest Foe Could Be Harris Lawyer Marc Elias

Trump's Toughest Foe Could Be Harris Lawyer Marc Elias

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,

If Donald Trump gets past Kamala Harris on Nov. 5, he’ll likely face a fiercer opponent in court – her campaign attorney, Marc Elias, who has vowed to fight the election outcome in every close state she loses.

The longtime Democratic Party lawyer has already filed more than 60 preelection lawsuits to stop Trump from becoming president again by combatting what he calls Republican “voter suppression” efforts such as requiring voters to provide identification at the polls. Echoing a standard Democratic talking point, Elias maintains that such requirements are “racist” strategies designed to make it harder for minorities to vote.

At the same time, Elias has been sending letters to election officials in Georgia and other key swing states threatening legal action if they uphold challenges to voter rolls to remove noncitizens and other ineligible registrants. Some Georgia officials complain that his intimidation tactics are interfering with county registrars’ ability to check the qualifications of voters.

If Trump is declared the winner, the hard-charging attorney threatens to overturn his election by deploying an army of more than 75 lawyers to sue for ballot recounts in several swing states. Trump, in turn, has threatened to lock Elias up for election interference, as ABC News moderator David Muir pointed out in last month’s presidential debate between Trump and Kamala Harris.

Elias symbolizes the growing impact of lawfare on U.S. elections as both parties are turning increasingly to the courts to gain an edge. According to a newly disclosed Republican National Committee memo, the Trump campaign has filed or joined 123 election lawsuits in 26 states, 82 of which are in battleground states, to combat what it describes as voter fraud. It has also hired thousands of lawyers to fend off what a Trump lawyer expects will be “an onslaught of litigation” from the Harris campaign contesting the results of the election. Of course, that army of lawyers will also be used to push recounts should Trump lose.

Election experts say that these GOP efforts – fueled, in part, by Trump’s claim that Democrats stole the 2020 election – are playing catch-up. Democrats have long been at the forefront of strategies to use the court to impact elections, and no one has been more important to that cause than Elias, who keeps a sign behind his desk that warns: “BEWARE OF ATTACK DEMOCRAT.” 

To many Democrats, he is a hero. The headline of a 2022 profile of Elias in the New Yorker called Elias, “The First Defense Against Trump’s Assault on Democracy.”

Conservatives tend to see Elias in a much different light. “Mr. Elias is part of a massive and well-funded partisan leftist operation notorious for using lawfare to undermine election integrity,” says Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch. “Making it easier to steal elections is the antithesis of ‘democracy.’”

Nevertheless, in the expanding world of lawfare, Elias, a 55-year-old graduate of Duke University’s law school, continues to stand apart. While scoring many victories in the courthouse, he has also worked closely with campaigns on partisan efforts that have little to do with jurisprudence.

More Than a Courtroom Partisan

As general counsel to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, he helped lead the effort to manufacture and leak spurious “opposition research” claiming to reveal illicit ties between Trump and Russia.

Elias later testified that he was worried – then as now – that Trump was a threat to democracy: “I received information that was troubling as someone who cares about democracy.” That “information” turned out to be a fictitious “dossier” linking Trump to the Kremlin crafted by former British spook and FBI informant Christopher Steele, who huddled with Elias in his Washington office. 

Some of the information that was in it I think has actually proved true. It was accurate and important,” Elias testified in a closed-door hearing on Capitol Hill in December 2017, according to a declassified transcript. Actually, Steele’s allegations proved to be a collection of improbable rumors and fabricated allegations invented by Steele’s top researcher and a Clinton campaign adviser.

Nonetheless, the disinformation was fed to the FBI and media, igniting criminal investigations (including illegal electronic surveillance), congressional probes, and a media frenzy that crippled Trump’s presidency with bad press for years.

In a parallel operation against Trump, Elias worked with his then-law partner Michael Sussmann and Clinton campaign officials – including Jake Sullivan, who is now President Biden’s national security adviser – to develop misleading evidence of a “secret hotline” between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that allegedly used a “back channel” connection between email servers at Trump Tower and Russian-owned Alfa Bank. These false allegations were posted on social media and brought to the attention of the FBI, triggering a separate criminal investigation targeting Trump and his campaign. Like other Russiagate probes, it was eventually discredited.

But the damage was done. By spreading fake Russian dirt on Trump, Elias was able to create scandals that dogged Trump for years, tarnishing his electability. The Democratic lawyer’s machinations, however, drew scrutiny from other investigators and hurt his own reputation – albeit temporarily.

During his probe of Russiagate, Special Counsel John Durham found Elias intentionally sought to conceal Clinton’s role in the dossier. According to court records, Elias acted as a cutout for more than $1 million in campaign payments for the dossier. By laundering its payments through a law firm, the Clinton campaign and Elias were able to claim attorney-client confidentiality when Durham sought their internal emails (the assertion of that privilege also blocked investigators from accessing communications between Elias and Steele’s immediate employer, the Washington-based opposition research firm, FusionGPS). But their shell game got the Clinton campaign in trouble with the Federal Election Commission, which later fined it and the Democratic National Committee $113,000 for misreporting the purpose of the payments as “legal expenses,” rather than opposition research, in violation of FEC laws.

The Durham probe, which Elias insists was “politically motivated,” nonetheless raised ethical issues with the D.C. Bar and Elias’ former law firm, Perkins Coie, reportedly leading to their breakup in August 2021, when Elias suddenly left the powerhouse after almost 30 years. The firm, which Elias had joined fresh out of law school in 1993, grew “increasingly uncomfortable” with the unwanted scrutiny the Durham probe invited on it, according to published reports. The veteran prosecutor exposed questionable billing practices by the firm. Durham also revealed the Democratic firm had set up an FBI workspace within its Washington offices, further calling into question the FBI’s impartiality in investigating Trump. 

In late 2021, Elias opened his own firm, the Elias Law Group, but soon lost major clients who reportedly grew weary of his aggressive tactics and go-it-alone style. Last year, the DNC severed its 15-year relationship with Elias; then more recently, the Biden campaign parted company with him. In 2020, Elias had quarterbacked Biden’s legal team that fought Trump’s claims in court that the election had been stolen. He also beat back GOP measures to ensure election integrity after Democrats took advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to dramatically loosen rules for voting – including allowing ballot harvesting, drop boxes, and ballots arriving up to four days after Election Day to still be counted.

Top Democratic Party officials were said to sour on Elias after he filed election-related lawsuits without consulting with them, some of which backfired with unfavorable – and lasting – rulings. Biden’s team reportedly also became frustrated with his fees. Elias billed the DNC and Biden campaign more than $20 million during the 2020 election cycle.

But Elias has since taken on other clients – including Kamala Harris – who have more than made up for the loss in revenue. So far in this election cycle, the latest FEC filings show the Elias Law Group has received a total of more than $22 million in disbursements from a host of major Democratic and anti-Trump clients. In addition to the Harris For President campaign, where he’s in charge of recounts and post-election litigation (it’s not known if he also has a hand in opposition research, as he did in 2016), Elias has signed retainer agreements with the:

  • Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
  • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
  • [Democratic] Senate Majority PAC
  • Stop Trump PAC
  • The Lincoln Project

Elias has also been retained by Mind The Gap, a political action committee set up to help Democrats take back the House. Mind The Gap was founded by Barbara Fried, the mother of convicted crypto kingpin Sam Bankman-Fried. In a lawsuit filed last year, Fried, a Stanford law professor, is accused of orchestrating a potentially illegal scheme to funnel political contributions from her son to her PAC.

Among Elias’ other clients are Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, a leader of House efforts to impeach Trump who, records show, is shelling out a six-figure retainer for Elias as he runs for an open U.S. Senate seat in California, and Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman, who previously served as Schiff’s chief counsel during the first Trump impeachment. 

Elias also represents Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who polls show is narrowly leading GOP challenger Bernie Moreno in his race for reelection, according to the RealClearPolitics Average. That race could determine control of the Senate.

The business of political lawfare – or “protecting democracy,” as Elias calls his job – has made the super lawyer super-rich. The most recent property records show Elias lives in a $2.6 million mansion in Great Falls, Va., and FEC records show he has the wherewithal to donate generous sums to his party, including a combined total of at least $65,000 in gifts to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“Aggressive Bully”

Elias first earned his reputation as a fierce and effective advocate in 2009, when he won an eight-month recount battle to get his client, Al Franken, elected to the Senate. He also scored a series of victories against the Trump campaign in 2020.

My team and I beat [Trump] in court 60-plus times,” Elias boasted on X last month, in his trademark brashness. “Here is my message to the GOP: If you try to subvert the election in 2024, you will be sued and you will lose.” 

Representing Biden electors in Arizona, for example, Elias in late 2020 defeated a post-election Trump lawsuit alleging voter fraud in Maricopa County by arguing at trial the plaintiff showed the court only “garden variety errors” but provided “no evidence about misconduct, no evidence about fraud, no evidence about illegal votes.”

But Elias’ aggressive posture has also backfired.

In 2016, he sued Arizona to strike down two laws that, he argued, made it harder for blacks and Hispanics to vote. One banned the practice of partisans going door-to-door and collecting mail-in ballots and bringing them to a polling place, and the other canceled ballots that were cast at the wrong precinct. Elias argued the measures violated a key part of the Voting Rights Act – Section 2 – prohibiting states from passing voting laws that discriminate based on race. After a lower court in Arizona refused to block the measures prior to the election, Elias appealed and won a favorable ruling from the liberal U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. But in the case, Brnovich v. DNC,  the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Arizona, ruling that the state’s ballot-integrity measures lacked discriminatory intent. 

UCLA law professor Rick Hasen speculates that the conservative Supreme Court used the Brnovich case as “an opportunity to weaken” Section 2, which Democratic voting-rights lawyers have relied on as a tool for civil rights enforcement. Regardless of the justices’ motives, the Brnovich decision does establish a precedent whereby voting rules resulting in only small disparities for voters of color can no longer be challenged. Some Democrats complain that Elias’ loss in Arizona opened the door for all red states to impose “restrictions” on voting.

Marc didn’t listen to such criticism and he brought an extremely weak Voting Rights Act case in Arizona to disastrous results,” Hasen wrote in a recent blog. “It is fine to be zealous in one’s advocacy,” he added, “but one need not be an aggressive bully.”

Elias has also aggravated judges. He’s been disciplined for filing frivolous lawsuits and motions. In 2021, for instance, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit sanctioned Elias for refiling a motion that was previously rejected by a lower court “without disclosing the previous denial.” The appellate court ordered him to pay attorneys’ fees and court costs incurred by opponents in the Texas election case over his “duplicative” motion.

Using lawfare as Elias does is legal – unless the litigation is frivolous,” said Paul Kamenar, general counsel for the National Legal and Policy Center in Washington.

Elias and an attorney representing him did not reply to requests for comment. But in a previous interview, he dismissed the criticism that he is unnecessarily belligerent, arguing that the “existential threat Trump poses to democracy” demands tough action. He acknowledged that he can be brusque but explained he discarded lawyerly circumspection and restraint after Trump’s 2016 election “radicalized” him. 

And so I became a much more polarized person and a more polarizing lawyer,” Elias told The New Yorker.

In a recent column for his Democracy Docket website, Elias attacked Trump as another “Hitler” who is “plotting to overthrow American democracy.” He even warned that a reelected Trump “is almost certain to convert the military into his personal domestic police force” and “seize voting machines [and] control ballot counting,” even though state laws govern elections.

Still, he denies filing groundless grievances over voting rules. He insists many of the tighter rules imposed by Republicans serve no legitimate purpose. And he doesn’t buy their argument that they’re needed to stop fraudulent voting because, as he claims, voter fraud is rare (or, more precisely, rarely prosecuted).

Anti-Trump War Room

“Republicans are working every day to make it harder to vote,” Elias recently posted on X. “They are also planning to subvert the elections when they lose.”

Noting the GOP’s flurry of preelection lawsuits, including in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina, Elias recently told MSNBC that Republicans will do anything to push Trump over the top because he cannot win on his own. “He is set to lose to Kamala Harris,” Elias claimed, “and Republicans know that their only way of winning this election is by intimidating voters, making it hard for voters to participate in the process, and by setting up a structure after the election for them to be able to engage in the kind of frivolous and harassing litigation and ultimately the kind of tactics we saw in 2020 – but on a much wider scale.”

To combat this, “My law firm is litigating 66 voting and election lawsuits in 23 states,” he said on X, with most of them concentrated in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. “And we are winning!” By comparison, Elias filed 20 voting-related lawsuits in 14 states at this point in the 2020 election cycle, making him more than three times as litigious this time.

His anti-Trump legal war room includes a for-profit operation he founded in 2020 called Democracy Docket LLC, which employs 16 and is housed in the same office as his law firm, records show. The digital platform tracks several hundred voting-related cases and publishes a weekly organ distributed to more than 225,000 paid subscribers (at $120 a year), who include lawyers, politicians, and journalists.

A sister operation, Democracy Docket Legal Fund, supports election litigation to protect the voting rights of primarily minority voters. Another spinoff, the Democracy Docket Action Fund, raises money for voting rights lawsuits. According to the Capital Research Center, the two organizations are bankrolled by millions of dollars in so-called dark money, including from leftwing billionaire George Soros – whom Elias has called “a hero.” Through these vehicles, Elias has virtually “unlimited funding” to challenge any voting law in any state if he thinks it will help his party and his Democratic clients win elections, according to Americans for Public Trust, a government watchdog group based in Alexandria, Va.

While Elias publicly claims he’s “defending free and fair elections,” it’s clear from his actions behind the scenes that his motives are purely partisan, critics say. Last month, he sent a letter to Virginia state election officials threatening to sue them if they don’t remove Cornel West, the presidential nominee of the leftwing Justice for All Party, from the state ballot. Elias is also trying to keep West, a progressive black college professor, off the ballot in 15 other states, including key battlegrounds. These efforts clearly have nothing to do with voting rights. Elias is simply worried West will bleed off enough votes from his Democratic client Kamala Harris to cost her victories in states where she is leading by razor-thin margins against Trump.

In a column he wrote last year for Democracy Docket, Elias admitted: “A vote for No Labels, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West or any other third-party candidate is effectively a vote for Trump.” 

In addition, Elias is quietly working with immigrant advocacy groups that want to make it possible for noncitizens to vote. In August, for example, Elias stepped in to represent El Pueblo in its quest to stop North Carolina’s State Board of Elections from removing noncitizens from voter registration rolls as required by a 2023 law. An estimated 325,000 “unauthorized” immigrants reside in the state.

RealClearInvestigations has learned that Elias supports another group that provides “compassionate” pro-bono legal services to immigrants who have entered the United States, many illegally.

Elias and his wife Brenley, also a lawyer, are listed as “donors” on a mailing list kept by Just Neighbors, which partners with Justice for Our Neighbors, operating in the D.C.-Maryland area. The group’s website says it provides free lawyers to help illegal immigrants get out of detention, obtain asylum status, and avoid deportation. “Populations served: Individuals who are not in legal immigration status,” the website states, and “individuals with criminal histories.”

It’s not known if the Eliases have actually provided pro-bono legal services to illegal aliens. Elias and an attorney representing him did not respond to requests for comment.

Nevertheless, as more than a dozen jurisdictions run by Democrats now allow noncitizens to vote in some local elections, the push to redefine who is eligible for the franchise promises to become an ever more potent and divisive issue in American politics. Much of this debate will almost certainly be hashed out in the courtroom battles and behind-the-scenes political maneuvering that are Marc Elias’ special practice. 

Paul Sperry is an investigative reporter for RealClearInvestigations. He is also a longtime media fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Sperry was previously the Washington bureau chief for Investor’s Business Daily, and his work has appeared in the New York Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Houston Chronicle, among other major publications.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 19:15

Stockman On Whether Trump Can Bring The US Empire Home

Stockman On Whether Trump Can Bring The US Empire Home

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

As should be evident by now, Donald Trump is about 90% bombast and 10% substance when it comes to policy matters. But every now and then one of his word bombs finds its mark, as this one did when he dissed the presumptuous little pissant who shuttled-in from Kiev last week to embark upon still another American treasure hunt. Referring to Zelensky, the Donald averred,

“…(he’s) the greatest salesman in history. Every time he comes into the country, he walks away with 60 billion dollars.”

My god, times are indeed desperate when the once and former Peace Party of America is represented by the likes of Kamala “lethal force” Harris and Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, who saw fit to conduct a photo op ghoulishly signing artillery shells that are designed to blow to smithereens anyone in their glide path—man, woman, child or combatant. That is to say, we’ve reached the point, apparently, where the only hope to stop Washington’s vile War Machine is Donald J. Trump.

Still, we dare not be naive. Trump did not spend a lifetime delving deep into world history or thinking about how to promote a peaceful Taftian approach to an America First foreign policy in the world of 2024. The Donald’s sole preoccupation and expertise all along has been the promotion of The Donald.

Indeed, he actually had so little regard for the cause of world peace that he saw fit to populate his last administration with its sworn enemies—John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Mad Dog Mattis, Gina Haspel, Nikki Haley and Victoria Nuland, among a legion of other neocons and hawks. And when these warmongers brought him the transparently false flag “gas attack” on Douma in 2018 he didn’t hesitate to order “bombs away”.

Then again, what did the tiny god-forsaken hell-hole in Syria, with a GDP equal to 7.3 hours of annual US output and no blue water Navy or long range Air Force, have to do with the security of the US Homeland? Or with Making America Great Again?

Absolutely nothing, of course. The Douma bombing that Trump sanctioned was actually just another spasmodic strike of the War Machine attempting to enforce a US Imperium that is bankrupting America and making the world a far more dangerous place then it would otherwise be.

But this week’s contretemps at the Scranton munitions factory may be just what the doctor ordered to transform the Donald into the statesman who finally brought the Empire Home, and thereby at least slowed the nation’s headlong rush to fiscal Armageddon. That’s because for the Donald, policy positions are mainly a club to attack opponents and enemies.

So by coming to the ultra-swing state of Pennsylvania 40 days before what is likely to be the closest election in US history, Zelensky and his Deep State and military-industrial complex patrons have become the Donald’s mortal enemies. And about that we should know one thing by now without doubt.

To wit, the Donald is an angry, egomaniacal hot mess who gives the idea of holding a grudge a wholly new definition. So if elected, he will surely do all in his power to defenestrate Zelensky and cause the Deep State War Machine to suffer a humiliating defeat in Ukraine by flying to, say Budapest, and cutting a deal with Putin that does end the Ukraine proxy war very quickly indeed.

And he can do just that because the election interference of the once and current clown of Ukraine was so blatant that even the neocon hawks who dominate GOP national security policy on Capitol Hill have had their water shut-off by the revulsion of their own rank and file. For instance, Senator Ted Cruz, who ordinarily sports a very blackish plume of hawkish feathers, had this to say:

Who the hell is Zelensky to be trying to interfere in our election? the arrogance of this guy,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on Wednesday in his “Verdict” podcast. “And the guy, I’ve got to say, is an absolute moron for coming to the U.S. six weeks before the election and attacking Trump and Vance. 

“This is just dumb on his part, because if Trump wins, he’s got a huge problem that just got bigger,” Cruz added.

The underlined phrase tells you all you need to know. The vast GOP majority is bolting from the authorized neocon position, leaving perhaps the likes of Lindsay Graham all by his lonesome out on the bleeding edge of the war paint parade.

Still, it just keeps getting better. The Dems have slid so far into the TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) tank that they are positioning themselves as bellicose, latter day McCarthyites. Yet these kinds of attacks by their presidential candidate are only sure to fire-up the GOP’s partisan juices, meaning there will be precious little Republican resistance to the Donald’s likely Inauguration Day actions to end the proxy war on Russia.

Harris in her remarks took a veiled swipe at Trump and Vance, saying “some in my country” would “force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory.”

These proposals are the same of those of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” she said. “And let us be clear: They are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable.”

Puleeese. There is nothing very “sovereign” about a tyrannical administrative unit put together by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev that had no prior organic national history of its own among the Russian, Polish, Lithuanian, Swedish, Austrian, Mongol and Turkish Empires that contested the Ukrainian steepes over the centuries before 1920. Nor would its partition today amount to anything remotely akin to “surrender”. In fact, quieting the guns, drones, tanks, artillery shells and warplanes along the line of contact in Ukraine would bring peace to the region, even as it spared what remains of the Ukrainian military age population and economic infrastructure from the senseless carnage now rampant all across the land.

Better still, the morning after the impending Trump-Putin territorial partition, which will likely carve away the Donbas and the Black Sea rim from a demilitarized, NATO-free rump of Ukraine, the dog that doesn’t bark will literally change the course of history. That is to say, the Baltics will not be invaded; Poland will not be occupied; the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin will not be entered by Russian troops; and the Benelux, France and England will slouch merrily onward toward socialist economic and moral decay without any assist from Vlad Putin, at all.

Stated differently, yet again no dominoes are destined to fall when the Washington War Party is forced once more to pack up the Empire and go home from the hideously misbegotten adventure in Ukraine. And by now it is deeply familiar with retreat, as in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and various lesser sites of previous imperial failure and humiliation.

Yet, hopefully, this time will be different. Perhaps this time a one-off defeat can be transformed into a history-making pivot away from Empire and the Warfare State to a renewal of America’s pre-1914 commitment to “no entangling alliances” and peaceful commerce with the rest of the world.

In that context, Donald Trump may become history’s paladin of salvation from the boot heels of the American Empire, but it will be up to the “Rescue the Republic” team led by Bobby Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard to ensure that the entire hegemonic framework of national security policy which spawned this calamity will be discredited, repudiated and abandoned in favor of a non-interventionist foreign policy consistent with America’s Republican tradition and future economic health and survival.

Needless to say, the one and only place to start is by “starving the beast” on the Pentagon and Langley side of the Potomac. That is to say, only be exploring what it would take to cut the defense budget by 50% can the outlines of a 21st century Fortress America national security policy be appreciated.

Such a deep cut in the Pentagon’s current hideously bloated budget would still leave $450 billion per year to insure the security and liberty of the American homeland. Not only is that more than enough, but the number itself has an uncanny level of historical verisimilitude.

As it happens, that was the level of the defense budget in today’s dollars of purchasing power when Bobby Kennedy’s uncle gave his powerful American University speech in June 1963. This soaring oration was delivered at the height of the cold war when the Soviet Union was still at the peak of its industrial and military vigor and just months after the Cuban Missile Crisis when the world had looked into the abyss of nuclear Armageddon.

Needless to say, the conventional politicians of the time were in a mode of full-throated anti-Soviet belligerence, yet JFK saw fit to make the greatest peace speech ever delivered by an American president. He well understood that at the then current level of defense spending, America had more than enough military capacity and deterrence power to discourage any would be aggressor, but that an adequate defense capability was but a pre-condition for the true security of a peaceful de-militarized world:

I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their children–not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women–not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.

Since then there have been two huge changes in global geopolitics that have made the world far, far less threatening than the one JFK had faced months earlier during October 1962. To wit:

  • The massively militarized, economically autarkic Soviet Empire has disappeared into the dustbin of history.

  • The incipient militarized state in Red China under Mao failed five decades ago and was turned outward and transformed into a commercial export powerhouse by Deng Xiaoping after the early 1990s.

These epochal changes have profound significance for America’s homeland security. In the absence of a massively militarized autarkic state foe capable of global military power projection, the way is once again clear for a far more modest Fortress America national security posture.

To the point, today’s Russia is but a shadow of the Soviet Union with a GDP of just $2 trillion versus the $50 trillion of Europe and North America. And rather than absorbing upwards of one-third of GDP as in Soviet times, Russia’s paltry $60 billion defense budget prior to its special operation in Ukraine amounted to just 3.5% of GDP.

Even more importantly, Soviet Russia was a closed system with virtually no economic commerce with the world outside the communist bloc. Therefore it had nothing to lose economically in the event of an aggressive military assault on the west and the global conflagration which would have ensued.

To the contrary, China’s very economic modus operandi depends upon $3.5 trillion per year of exports to the outside world. The material prosperity in China that has given the ruling communist party an extended lease on life would collapse in a few months if Beijing even attempted a military assault on Western Europe or the United States. So PLA bombing of 4,000 Walmart stores in America will never happen. Nor will Chinese marines ever be landing on the California shores.

Accordingly, the United States today does not need a globalized, two-and-one-half war fighting capability that even JFK thought necessary in the early 1960s. Yet Washington continues to stand-up twice JFK’s military budget in real terms and maintain a global network of bases, power projection capabilities, alliances, commitments, interventions and occupations that were not even necessary in 1963.

As a practical matter, America’s ostensible “enemies” today have no offensive or invasionary capacity at all. Russia has only one aircraft carrier—a 1980s era vessel which has been in dry-dock for repairs since 2017 and is equipped with neither a phalanx of escort ships nor a suite of attack and fighter aircraft—and at the moment not even an active crew.

Likewise, China has just three aircraft carriers—two of which are refurbished rust buckets purchased from the remnants of the old Soviet Union, and which carriers do not even have modern catapults for launching their strike aircraft.

Indeed, invasion of the American homeland would require a massive conventional armada of land, air and sea-based forces many, many times larger than the military behemoth that is now funded by Washington’s $900 billion defense budget. The logistical infrastructure that would be needed to control the vast Atlantic and Pacific Ocean moats surrounding North America and to sustain an invasion and occupation force of the US mainland is so mind-mindbogglingly vast as to be scarcely imaginable.

For want of doubt, the graphic below compares Washington’s 11 carrier battle groups, which cost about $25 billion each including their escort ships, suites of aircraft and electronic and missile capabilities, with those of the other major powers. Self-evidently, none of the non-NATO countries shown in the red area of the graphic—China, India, Japan, Russia or Thailand—will be steaming their tiny 3, 2 and 1 carrier battle groups toward the shores of either California or New New Jersey any time soon. An invasionary force that had any chance at all of surviving a US fortress defense of cruise missiles, drones, jet fighters, attack submarines and electronics warfare would need to be 100X larger.

Yet there is no GDP in the world—$2 trillion for Russia, $3.5 trillion for India or $18 trillion for China—that is even remotely close in size to the $50 to $100 trillion GDP that would be needed to support such an invasionary force without capsizing the home economy.

At the same time, the 11 US carrier battle groups, which will cost upwards of $1.2 trillion over the next decade, would have no role in a continental Fortress America defense at all. They would be sitting ducks in the blue waters, and far less effective than aircraft and missile defenses based in the North American interior.

In short, these massively expensive forces have no purpose other than global power projection and the conduct of wars of invasion and occupation abroad. That is, they are white elephant military accoutrements of a day gone by, not even remotely relevant to a proper Fortress America defense in 2024.

In today’s world, in fact, the only theoretical military threat to America’s homeland security is the possibility of nuclear blackmail. That is to say, a First Strike capacity so overwhelming, lethal and effective that an enemy could simply call out checkmate and demand Washington’s surrender.

An absolutely invulnerable triad (air, sea and land-based) nuclear deterrent can be funded for just $75 billion per year, or barely 6% of the current national defense budget. Much of the rest has nothing to do with securing the American Homeland behind the great Atlantic and Pacific Ocean moats from conventional attack and, in fact, is useful mainly for power projection abroad and operating the now obsolete global network of cold war alliances and bases stretching across the globe.

*  *  *

The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. It could cause the most significant disaster since the 1930s. Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 18:25

Coast Guard Rescues Man Floating On Cooler 30 Miles Off Florida Coast

Coast Guard Rescues Man Floating On Cooler 30 Miles Off Florida Coast

30 Miles!!!!

A U.S. Coast Guard helicopter crew on Thursday rescued a man spotted floating on a cooler in the sea, dozens of miles off Florida’s Gulf Coast after Hurricane Milton struck.

The Coast Guard said an Air Station Miami helicopter crew rescued the captain of a fishing vessel called “Capt. Dave” 30 miles off Longboat Key.

He was transferred to Tampa General Hospital to undergo further treatment, officials said in an Oct. 10 statement.

As The Epoch Times' Katabella Roberts reports below, the Coast Guard said the man survived because he was wearing a life jacket and had an emergency position locator beacon and a cooler.

“This man survived in a nightmare scenario for even the most experienced mariner,” Dana Grady, the St. Petersburg command center chief of the U.S. Coast Guard, said.

The captain of the fishing vessel and a crew member first reported needing assistance about 20 miles off John’s Pass in Florida on Monday. A Coast Guard Station Sand Key rescue boat crew and an Air Station Clearwater rescue helicopter crew were deployed to the scene, according to the Coast Guard.

The captain and the crew members were rescued and brought back to Air Station Clearwater in “good condition.”

The boat was left adrift and “salvage arrangements were to be made,” the Coast Guard said.

On Wednesday, the owner of the fishing vessel informed the Coast Guard that the captain had returned to the boat at about 3 a.m. to make some repairs but had failed to check in.

“Watchstanders were able to make radio contact with the captain who reported the rudder was fouled with a line and became disabled during his transit back to port,” the Coast Guard said.

At the time of the rescue operation, the weather was “quickly deteriorating” as Hurricane Milton approached, with waves reaching six to eight feet and winds of around 30 mph, according to the Coast Guard.

Air Station Miami airplane crews fly over Florida's west coast looking for people in distress and assessing damage, on Oct. 10, 2024. Courtesy of Mike O'Keefe/U.S. Coast Guard

The captain was instructed by the Coast Guard to put on a life jacket and “stay with the boat’s emergency position indicating a radio beacon.”

The Coast Guard lost communication with the captain at about 6:45 p.m. on Wednesday.

Search and rescue teams eventually spotted him adrift with the cooler at about 1:30 p.m. on Thursday.

The Coast Guard shared video footage of the rescue on social media platform X.

It shows the captain kneeling on the cooler as a Coast Guard helicopter from Air Station Miami approaches. A crew member is then lowered into the water before swimming toward the captain. The video ends before he is hoisted out of the sea.

The rescue came after Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, on Wednesday evening as a powerful Category 3 storm, bringing with it powerful winds, deadly storm surges, and flooding.

At least 10 people are believed to have died in the storm. Search and rescue operations are continuing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 18:00

P. Diddy And US Attorney Damian Williams: Let The Games Begin

P. Diddy And US Attorney Damian Williams: Let The Games Begin

Authored by Nick Braynt via nickbryantnyc.com,

Andre Damian Williams Jr., U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, once again has the distinction of covering up child sex trafficking. He received that distinction for overseeing a federal grand jury that didn’t indict Sean “Diddy” Combs on a single count of child sex trafficking and/or molestation. 

Before I address Williams’ new offenses against children, I should offer a reminder about his prior offenses. Williams was appointed the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York in December of 2018, and he became the point-man for the Epstein cover-up. He was slated to oversee the trial of Jeffrey Epstein, but Epstein became preoccupied with his death. Williams, however, oversaw the Ghislaine Maxwell trial, which was a travesty of justice even before it commenced: Federal prosecutors only indicted Maxwell on one-count of child trafficking, even though her and Epstein had trafficked children for approximately 25 years. Moreover, the federal prosecutors were aware of over 30 child Epstein trafficking victims, but they only called four victims as witnesses, and those victims had been exclusively molested by Epstein and Maxwell. The federal prosecutors were aware of various Epstein procurers (pimps) and numerous perpetrators. But the prosecutors’ flagrant objective was a cover up of the procurers (pimps) and perpetrators in the Epstein network. One-count of child trafficking carries a 15-year to life sentence, and Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years. 

In the wake of Maxwell’s trial, Williams said the following with a straight face: “Today’s sentence holds Ghislaine Maxwell accountable for perpetrating heinous crimes against children. This sentence sends a strong message that no one is above the law and it is never too late for justice. We again express our gratitude to Epstein and Maxwell’s victims for their courage in coming forward, in testifying at trial, and in sharing their stories as part of today’s sentencing.” His statements were rather ironic, because he just facilitated the cover-up of the largest child trafficking network ever acknowledged by US law enforcement. The cover-up of a crime is aiding and abetting that crime, so Williams is guilty of aiding and abetting child trafficking.

Williams’ offenses against children were again on display as he oversaw the Combs’ grand jury that returned the following indictments against Combs.

  • One count of racketeering conspiracy 
  • One count of sex trafficking by force, fraud, or coercion
  • One count of transportation for purposes of prostitution

Two of the sexual assault lawsuits that are pending against Combs were filed by minors. One of those lawsuits was filed by Liza Gardner who alleges that Combs raped her when she was 16 years old. A second lawsuit, filed by “Jane Doe,” alleges that minions of Combs flew her from Detroit to New York City when she was 17 years old, where Combs plied her with alcohol and took turns raping her with two other men. The latter is a blatant case of the interstate sex trafficking of a minor, but it seems to have been overlooked by Williams and his cadre in the Southern District. Either Williams thought she was lying or he’s covering up Combs’ child trafficking. 

Combs is charged with one count of “racketeering conspiracy” but, thus far, his co-conspirators haven’t been indicted. Ghislaine Maxwell, too, was indicted on multiple conspiracies:

  • One count conspiracy to entice minors to travel to engage in illegal sex acts
  • One count of conspiracy to transport minors to participate in illegal sex acts 
  • One count of sex trafficking conspiracy

Though Maxwell was indicted on multiple conspiracies, Williams’ office didn’t indict one of her co-conspirators. Combs has also been indicted on conspiracy, but his co-conspirators have not been indicted. Is the Combs’ case history repeating itself?

According to a BBC article, “Sean 'Diddy' Combs faces more than 100 new assault allegations,” a Texas-based attorney, Tony Buzbee, is representing “more than 100” alleged victims of Combs. And he maintains that 25 of the alleged victims he is representing were minors when they were molested by Combs et al, including an alleged victim who was nine years old at the time. Like Epstein, Buzbee believes that Combs had connections to Mount Olympus. "The names will shock you," he said at a press conference. Combs engaged in the trafficking of adults and minors for years. Also like Epstein, how could Combs pull off such heinous crimes for years without a little help from his friends in state and/or federal law enforcement?

Combs is now on suicide watch. The federal corrections officers at Manhattan’s Metropolitan Correctional Center excelled at ensuring Epstein's death either by gross negligence or outright malfeasance. Combs is incarcerated at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. So perhaps Combs jailers in Brooklyn will prove to be more competent than Epstein’s jailers in Manhattan?

Epstein and Maxwell had a penchant for hidden cameras and blackmail, and they molested children for 25 years. Combs also had a penchant for hidden cameras and a penchant for blackmail. Lil Rod’s sexual assault lawsuit filed against Combs was our first inkling of P. Diddy’s hidden cameras and blackmail.

But, since then, numerous sources have stated that Combs homes had clandestine cameras. The New York Post reported the following: “One of the Department of Homeland Security agents who helped raid Diddy’s Florida abode claimed that the music mogul had rooms that were clearly 'dedicated to sex' with cameras all around. 'So if you were in those sex parties, you were being recorded from every possible angle, including angles you wouldn’t have known about,' the source said, referring to the sometimes days-long orgies he called “freak offs” where drugged-up victims were allegedly forced to have sex with male prostitutes.”

A former bodyguard for Combs, Gene Deal, divulged that he had an affinity for blackmailing the high and mighty. He said: “I don’t think it’s only celebrities gonna be shook. He had politicians in there; he had princes in there. He also had a couple of preachers in there.”

Suge Knight, the incarcerated, former CEO Death Row Records, has stated that Combs is an FBI informant, and that's the reason he's been given a Get Out of Jail Free card for his heinous crimes over the years. Granted, Knight and Combs are antagonistic towards each other, and Knight certainly isn't a cherub, but sometimes the truth has a way of percolating on the streets. Knight also believes that Combs might be an endangered species, because of the secrets he harbors.

U.S. Attorney Damian Williams isn’t a cherub either, nor is he your average U.S. Attorney. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York is a position whose occupants have included future judges, senators, cabinet members, and a New York City mayor. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York is considered to be the most powerful federal law enforcement official in Manhattan. 

According to 28 U.S. Code § 544, a U.S. attorney takes an “oath to execute faithfully his duties.” But Williams disregarded his oath when he facilitated the cover-up of the Epstein/Maxwell trafficking network. So, what would motivate the most powerful federal law enforcement official in Manhattan to disregard his or her oath, especially for such egregious crimes? Williams cherishes his power and doesn’t want to lose it and/or Williams himself is compromised and/or Williams and his family has/have been threatened.

Williams has spent a lot of time among political shakers and movers. He worked for John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign. Williams was then a "body man" for the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Terry McAuliffe. In politics, a body man is a ubiquitous personal aide or assistant. 

Former Virginia Governor Terry McAullife has certainly been tainted by allegations of corruption. Quoting the New York Times: “Mr. McAuliffe is a walking symbol of the wretched excess of the Clinton years. He raised millions in special-interest money for President Clinton's campaign.” McAuliffe founded a company, GreenTech Automotive, which the Virginia Economic Development Partnership concluded was a visa-for-sale scheme. McAulliffe resigned from the company. The FBI scrutinized $120,000 donation made to McAulliffe’s Virginia gubernatorial campaign by Chinese national Wang Wenliang. McAulliffe initially denied knowing Wang until a preponderance of evidence linked him to Wenliang, who also donated $2 million to the Clinton Foundation.

In addition to aiding purportedly corrupt, political heavyweights, Williams received substantial funding from the Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships for New Americans. Williams parents immigrated from Jamaica to the United States, which made him eligible for the fellowship. Thirty Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships are awarded every year with a selection rate of 1.2%. Each fellow receives up to $90,000 in funding toward their graduate education. Williams attended Yale Law School on a Soros fellowship. (Prior to attending law school, Williams graduated with a BA in economics from Harvard.)

Peter Soros is the son of Paul & Daisy, and nephew of George Soros. Peter is on the Board of the Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships for New Americans, and he also has the distinction of being circled twice in Epstein’s “Black Book.” Epstein’s house manager Alfredo Rodriquez purloined the Black Book, and he circled those who he perceived as being in cahoots with Epstein with regards to pedophilic pandering. Peter Soros reportedly being in cahoots with Epstein and also on the Board of an organization that gave William’s a substantial fellowship could be a very bizarre coincidence or it could be something more ominous.

If, or until, Williams indicts Combs on multiple counts of child trafficking, he will play the same role that he played for Epstein regarding the coverup of child trafficking and abuse.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 17:40

Boeing Slashes 10% Of Workforce, CEO Warns "Hard To Overstate The Challenges We Face"

Boeing Slashes 10% Of Workforce, CEO Warns "Hard To Overstate The Challenges We Face"

In what some have called a panic/desperation negotiating tactic, Boeing has announced (late on a Friday afternoon) that it will slash its workforce by 10% as the pummeled planemaker struggles with a cash-crunch amid a drawn-out strike and ongoing quality control (to put it nicely) issues.

In a memo to employees, CEO Kelly Ortberg noted that the reductions will include executives, managers and employees, warning that:

“Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together."

Boeing ended 2023 with 171,000 employees.

The company said it expects to report third quarter revenue of $17.8 billion, and a loss per share of $9.97, according to preliminary figures.

The company unveiled the measures and the earnings figures as it seeks to get its negotiations with labor unions back on track.

Boeing has made two offers for higher wages, both of which were turned down by workers.

About 33,000 employees at its main Seattle-area facilities have been on strike for a month now, devastating production and draining Boeing’s reserves.

The latest talks collapsed earlier this week, with no clear path when and how they might resume.

Boeing shares tumbled after hours, erasing the day's gains...

Ortberg also said the company has notified customers that the first deliveries of the 777X are now expected in 2026, citing the ongoing work stoppage and flight test pause.

Read the full press release below:

"While our business is facing near-term challenges, we are making important strategic decisions for our future and have a clear view on the work we must do to restore our company," said Kelly Ortberg, Boeing president and chief executive officer.

"These decisive actions, along with key structural changes to our business, are necessary to remain competitive over the long term. We are also focusing on areas that are critical to our future and will ensure we have the balance sheet necessary to invest, support our people and deliver for our customers."

Commercial Airplanes expects to recognize pre-tax earnings charges of $3.0 billion on the 777X and 767 programs. The company now anticipates first delivery of the 777-9 in 2026 and the 777-8 freighter in 2028, resulting in a pre-tax earnings charge of $2.6 billion. This schedule and resulting financial impact are based on an updated assessment of the certification timelines to address the delays in flight testing of the 777-9, as well as anticipated delays associated with the IAM work stoppage. Commercial Airplanes also plans to conclude production of the 767 freighter and recognize a $0.4 billion pre-tax charge on the program, which also reflects impacts from the IAM work stoppage. Beginning in 2027, the company will solely produce 767-2C aircraft in support of the KC-46A Tanker program. Commercial Airplanes expects to report third quarter revenue of $7.4 billion and operating margin of (54.0) percent.

Defense, Space & Security expects to recognize pre-tax earnings charges of $2.0 billion on the T-7A, KC-46A, Commercial Crew, and MQ-25 programs. The T-7A program pre-tax charge of $0.9 billion was driven by higher estimated costs on production contracts in 2026 and beyond. The KC-46A program pre-tax charge of $0.7 billion reflects the decision to conclude production on the 767 freighter and impacts of the IAM work stoppage. Results also include unfavorable performance on other programs. Defense, Space & Security expects to report third quarter revenue $5.5 billion and operating margin of (43.1) percent.

Finally, a quick thought for all the other corporations out there...

Live by the capitalist sword, DEI by the socialist sword...

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 17:20

Kamala Unwinding...

Kamala Unwinding...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“...we are facing a catastrophic collapse of governance. With democracy reduced to a tragedy or a farce (probably both things)..."

-  Ugh Bardi

As the US increasingly resembles ancient Rome, being president is more and more dangerous. Something around 35 emperors met violent deaths, most from people in and around their courts. In other words, members of the Roman Deep State. An ugly situation is brewing in and around Washington DC.” 

- Doug Casey

Don’t kid yourself: Kamala Harris does not want to be President of the United States. She doesn’t even want the ceremonial stuff, the incessant shuffling from one photo op to the next, the tedious Easter egg rolls, the prayer meetings, the turkey pardonings, the tiresome state banquets for men in strange headgear who are unfamiliar with using the fork and knife, and forbidden to sip chardonnay...

It’s obvious she has been played for a chump, that she was sandbagged into play-acting “the candidate” by an odd coalition of the distraught and the desperate — that is, the many agency blobsters who fear prison and the perfidious politicians such as Pelosi, Schumer, Mitch the Turtle, the Clintons, and Obama, paid to cover for the blob, often doing it badly, who fear the judgment of history, as well as the loss of their fortunes. Distraught and desperate characters make foolish decisions.

About thirty seconds after “Joe Biden” vowed to stay in the 2024 race, a delegation of these panicked pols paid him a call and passed him the black spot, knowing he could not credibly front for the massive election cheat underway. He was barely able to front for the previous one in 2020, when every lever of power got pulled to-the-max to conceal the truth about the steal, and to severely punish those who dared to murmur doubts about the election’s freeness and fairness.

How did they decide that Kamala would do any better? I assure you we will find out when the party explodes in recriminations sometime after November 5. It will probably turn out to look like the 2017 movie, The Death of Stalin, a frantic vaudeville of scheming buffoons oblivious to mundane doings of the suffering nation they pretend to serve. Unlike Nikita Khrushchev in 1953, Kamala did not prevail among this gang of squabbling clowns by force of personality or guile. She was merely a default setting as veep, arrived at to present the illusion of continuity and solidarity where none existed. She was not even involved in the backstage action. I doubt that anyone even asked her if she wanted the assignment — she was only notified after-the-fact. Thus, all the drinking.

The outstanding question: will the Democratic Party actually go ahead and attempt to execute an election steal despite growing evidence of a developing Trump landslide that might obviate it? The works are already in motion. The mail-in ballots went out long ago and early votes are getting cast by the day. The overseas ballots that require no US address or voter verification are flooding in by the millions and four years of open borders has 10-million illegal aliens (at a minimum) dispersed around the nation, great gobs of them planted in swing states, processed through the DMVs and social services — with the requisite automatic voter registration — their ballots already pre-bundled for harvest.

It could go a few ways.

One is, just let’er rip, harvest all those fake votes, stuff the drop-boxes, flood the zone, and do it all right in America’s face as if to say: we can do whatever we want. . .  to get whatever we want. . . and you can’t stop us.

That is probably the point where blue America finds out exactly what the Second Amendment was designed for.

You might also expect a whole lot of state-organized resistance, especially in the populous red ones, Texas, Florida, real court cases over fraud this time, contested certification.

Or, the election could come out a hopeless unresolvable muddle. There’s no precedent for this and no provision in the Constitution, but you can imagine the Supreme Court having to decide a necessary do-over minus all recent gimmicks, paper ballots only, voters with proof of citizenship only, all voting on one re-scheduled election day before January 1.

This novelty would be something apart from the clunky Congressional machinery established for settling electoral college disputes, since it is predicated on various states’ inability to determine their electoral college vote in the first place, based on patent irregularity and fraud.

You could also imagine a period of disorder so deep and grave that the regime behind “Joe Biden” declares martial law. . . or, alternately the military — the martial institution — has to take matters into its own hands, shoving aside even “Joe Biden” and his filthy retinue.

Appalling to consider, I’m sure, but these things happen in history, and the Party of Chaos has set enough mischief in motion to wreck the election and wreck the country. Call it catastrophizing, if you will. There it is.

But to step back from that abyss, it appears that Mr. Trump’s momentum accelerates by the day, that he is becoming, at last, an implacable, irresistible juggernaut who will, perforce, overcome all the gimmicks, traps, and frauds arrayed against him. Kamala seems to think so. Have you ever seen such resignation, such loserdom-in-action as her recent performance on CBS’s 60-Minutes, or her pitiful admission on ABC’s The View that she couldn’t think of anything she would do differently beyond the excellent management of national affairs under “Joe Biden” (and herself as veep). Surely that said it all. She has nothing, brings nothing.

Long ago, she was a pretty girl with a law degree and an infectious laugh on the fringes of local politics in San Francisco.

The winds of fortune blew her this way and that way until she ended up way over her head, used by the reprobates around her as a mere device to stay out of jail.

She ends as an historical prank on her own country.

It must be deeply demoralizing to be used like that in front of the whole world.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 17:00

Money-Market Fund Assets & Small Bank Deposits Surge To Record Highs... As Stocks Soar

Money-Market Fund Assets & Small Bank Deposits Surge To Record Highs... As Stocks Soar

For the third week in a row (and 9th week in the last 10), money-market funds saw inflows (+$11.3BN), pushing total AUM to a new record high ($6.474TN), even as stocks surged to new record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

...and also for the third week in a row, US banks saw total bank deposits (seasonally adjusted) rise (by $53.2BN), well above pre-SVB levels...

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, deposits soared by a huge $123.9BN to the highest since Jan 2023 (before the SVB crisis)...

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps even more stunning, excluding foreign deposits, domestic US banks saw a massive $99.2BN deposit inflow (SA) in the week-ending Oct 2nd - the biggest weekly deposits inflow since May 2021. On an NSA basis, domestic deposits rose $178BN...

Source: Bloomberg

Large banks saw $55.5BN of inflows (SA) and/or $123.3BN inflows (NSA). Small banks saw $43.7BN of deposits inflows and/or $54.7BN inflows (NSA). This is a new record high for Small Bank deposits...

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of the ledger, large banks saw loan volumes shrink by $1.9BN while small banks saw loan volumes rise by $4.3BN...

Source: Bloomberg

At the same time, banks are unwinding (can't roll because the facility is closed) their loans from The Fed's bank bailout facility...

Source: Bloomberg

Bank reserves at The Fed ticked up modestly last week but remain drastically decoupled from their historically tight relationship with US equity market capitalization...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we detailed here, below the surface of soaring bank stocks, something serious is going on in the financial system plumbing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 16:40

Bitcoin, Bullion, & 'Biggest Shorts' Blast Higher To End 'Bad Data' Week

Bitcoin, Bullion, & 'Biggest Shorts' Blast Higher To End 'Bad Data' Week

Goldilocks it wasn't... as inflation macro data surprised to the upside and growth macro data to the downside (we love the smell of stagflation in the morning)...

Source: Bloomberg

... but that didn't stop stocks soaring for the fifth straight week, with Small Caps exploding higher today (back into the green for the week)...

...as "most shorted" stocks saw a massive squeeze higher today...

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, a market wrap would not be complete without discussing the shitshow in Shanghai as Chinese stocks witnessed the greatest volatility since their meltdown in 2015, capping almost $500 billion of combined losses in mainland and Hong Kong markets, as investors demanded even more stimulus than authorities in Beijing have already pledged.

The CSI 300 Index’s weekly trading range - the gap between high and low prices - surged above 600 index points this week for the first time since July 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

Back then, Chinese markets witnessed an exodus of foreigners driven by mounting economic concerns and a government crackdown on traders which only exacerbated the panic.

Source: Bloomberg

This time, the turbulence is driven by sluggish consumer demand that threatens even the scaled-down growth ambitions of the country. The index’s 10-day and 20-day realized volatility also rose to a nine-year high.

Notably, the rise in macro surprise data has come as financial conditions have loosened to their 'easiest' since Nov 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw the 45th all-time-high of the year, but none of the prior 44 have occurred alongside this elevated a level of volatility; this will be the first week of the year where the VIX has closed above 20 every day, and so ongoing elevated risk is expected as we progress through October...

Source: Bloomberg

The vol term structure is notably upward-sloping into the election now (and the coincidental FOMC meeting)...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were very mixed today and on the week the short-end dramatically outperforming (practically unch on the week as the long-end blew out)...

Source: Bloomberg

After a huge flattening last week, the yield curve steepened by the most since the start of August this week with 2s10s dropping to inversion to start the week and steepening to erase the post-payrolls plunge by the end...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations rose modestly this week (with all the focus on 2025 as 2024 remains priced for less than 2 full rate cuts now)...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the second straight week, testing up to August's highs before stalling a little today...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength, Gold extended yesterday's rebound to end the week higher, finding support at $2600 once again...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was flat today holding on to gains on the week (with WTI back above $75)...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin exploded back higher today (from $59,000 to $63,000), to end the week solidly in the green (after testing near one-month lows)...

Source: Bloomberg

Is this the start of Bitcoin's rip on the back of surging liquidity...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this weekend represents the two year anniversary from the bear market lows. The S&P is up 66% from the lows in October 2021, helped by and endless supply of liquidity from global central planners...]

Source: Bloomberg

BUT... the last week or two has seen liquidity start to contract a little (even as stocks soared to record-er highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

Will the money-printers get back to work... or will stocks sink into the election (which Trump is now leading in all the prediction markets - but not the polls)?

Source: Bloomberg

There's no bears left...

Source: Bloomberg

...well maybe some...

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 16:00

San Francisco To Shutter 9% Of Public Schools As Budget Crisis Explodes

San Francisco To Shutter 9% Of Public Schools As Budget Crisis Explodes

San Francisco is gearing up to shut down 9% of its public schools in a desperate move to fix a massive budget deficit. With student enrollment plummeting and pandemic relief funds drying up, the city is set to close or merge 11 out of its 121 schools, leaving the future of thousands of students and teachers hanging in the balance.

Gabrielle Lurie / The Chronicle 2019

The proposal, which was announced late Tuesday, comes as the school district faces a whopping $113 million in cuts by 2026, or risk a dreaded state takeover. "Without a balanced budget and a plan to consolidate our resources, we risk a state takeover," warned Superintendent Matt Wayne, adding that such a takeover would "further deplete resources directed to our schools, erode our collective decision-making power, and likely compound educational disparities for our most vulnerable students."

The schools on the chopping block serve about 2,000 kids, while another two will merge with other locations, according to local reports. And it’s not just the school closures - San Francisco’s school district has already been slashing jobs and cutting back on school supplies. Things could get worse when the final list of schools is voted on next month by the school board, Bloomberg reports.

This is the latest blow to a city grappling with skyrocketing homelessness and a fentanyl crisis. San Francisco’s public school enrollment has plunged by over 4,000 students in the last seven years - costing the district $80 million. By 2032, they’re expecting to lose another 4,600 students thanks to falling birth rates and demographic shifts.

Feeding the 'Doom Loop'

The planned school closures are more than just a budgetary issue - they are a reflection of the larger economic "doom loop" San Francisco finds itself trapped in. As described by the San Francisco Chronicle, the city’s economic ecosystem is spiraling as the decline of core public services like schools accelerates a broader exodus of residents and businesses.

Sophie D'Amato/The Chronicle

Thanks to crime, filth, and the pandemic - downtown SF has seen a sharp reduction in foot traffic as remote work has left office buildings and businesses empty. This shift has eroded the city’s tax base, leading to budget shortfalls across vital services. Now, with the closure of schools, families may be even more likely to leave the city, taking their children and spending power with them.

The doom loop is driven by a vicious cycle: diminished public services push people and businesses away, shrinking the tax revenue the city relies on to fund those very services. The closure of schools, much like the rise in homelessness and the overdose epidemic, threatens to further compound the fact that San Francisco is a city in decline, locked in a downward spiral.

As San Francisco’s public institutions falter, the question looms - how much longer can the city sustain these losses before it hits a tipping point?

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 15:45

Nation's Largest Generic Drug Maker To Pay $450 Million To Resolve Kickback, Price-Fixing Claims

Nation's Largest Generic Drug Maker To Pay $450 Million To Resolve Kickback, Price-Fixing Claims

Teva Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. and Teva Neuroscience Inc. (collectively, Teva) have agreed to pay $450 million to resolve allegations that they violated the Anti-Kickback Statute (AKS) and the False Claims Act (FCA), according to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).

Teva is an Israeli company, with U.S. headquarters in Parsippany, New Jersey, and is the largest generic drug manufacturer in the United States, according to the DOJ.

The settlement amount was based on Teva’s ability to pay, the DOJ said.

As Chase Smith details below, via The Epoch Times, the settlement addresses two alleged kickback schemes.

First, Teva allegedly violated and conspired to violate the AKS and FCA by covering Medicare patients’ copays for the multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone from 2006 through 2017, while steadily increasing the drug’s price.

The DOJ alleged that Teva coordinated with a specialty pharmacy and two purportedly independent copay assistance foundations to ensure donations were used specifically to cover Copaxone copays for Medicare patients with multiple sclerosis, which is prohibited by law.

Second, Teva USA agreed to resolve separate allegations of conspiring with other generic drug manufacturers to fix prices for pravastatin—a widely used cholesterol medication—as well as clotrimazole and tobramycin.

Teva USA entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ’s Antitrust Division last year, paying a criminal penalty of $225 million and admitting to conspiring with three other companies to fix prices on certain generic drugs.

The $450 million payment to resolve the allegations is in addition to the criminal penalty previously paid under the deferred prosecution agreement.

Under the civil settlement announced today, Teva agreed to resolve allegations that the benefits it received from the price-fixing scheme constituted illegal kickbacks.

“Kickbacks designed to induce referrals or purchases of healthcare goods or services distort physician and patient decision-making, thwart competition and bypass controls put in place to protect federal health care programs,” said Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brian M. Boynton, head of the DOJ’s Civil Division.

“The Justice Department is committed to pursuing those who engage in kickback violations, including drug manufacturers, to ensure that federal health care programs continue to serve the interests of taxpayers and program beneficiaries.”

The settlement is the largest to date involving pharmaceutical companies allegedly using third-party foundations as conduits to unlawfully pay patient copays.

“Kickback arrangements by pharmaceutical companies escalate the costs for critical drugs used by our citizens and federal health care programs,” U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania Jacqueline Romero said.

“My office is proud to work with the rest of the Department of Justice and our investigative partners to enforce federal laws prohibiting kickback arrangements.”

Since 2017, the United States has collected more than $1 billion from pharmaceutical companies that allegedly used third-party foundations to unlawfully pay patient copays, in addition to today’s settlement, according to the DOJ.

The Epoch Times reached out to Teva USA for a response to the settlement but did not hear back before publication.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 14:25

Is The Inflation Dragon Really Dead?

Is The Inflation Dragon Really Dead?

By Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

Is the inflation dragon really dead?

Markets are a bit cautious as we are heading for the weekend. US stock markets declined yesterday and the 10 year US treasury yield moved up and down in an attempt to find direction. In the end it was down. China’s finance minister will give a fiscal policy briefing on Saturday. Markets are expecting Beijing to announce 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan ($280-$420 billion) in new spending and worries about whether it will deliver. Meanwhile, the Middle East is still waiting for Israel’s retaliation against Iran. On the bright side, this morning monthly UK GDP growth turned positive (0.2%) again in August, after two months of zero growth.

Yesterday, the US CPI figures were higher than expected: headline inflation fell to 2.4% (2.3% expected by the Bloomberg consensus) and core inflation even rebounded to 3.3% (expected unchanged at 3.2%). The month-on-month rates were also higher than anticipated. The headline continued to rise at 0.2%, in contrast to an expected slowdown to 0.1%. The core kept rising at 0.3%, instead of slowing down to 0.2% as foreseen by the consensus. Looking inside the core, services-less-rent-of-shelter inflation rebounded from 4.3% to 4.4% and showed a strong acceleration from 0.1% to 0.6% month-on-month. This is the part of the core that is supposed to be most closely related to wage growth and should be affected by the Fed’s attempts to bring the labor market in better balance. In the minutes of the September 17-18 meeting released on Wednesday, some participants had proudly noted that “the rate of increase in core nonhousing services prices had moved down further.” Well, think again. On the bright side, shelter inflation fell from 5.2% to 4.9% and eased in month-on-month terms from 0.5% to 0.2%. Nevertheless, core inflation still seems a bit sticky.

In contrast, the initial jobless claims for the first week of October rose to 258K from 225K a week earlier. A big jump, but a large part of this seems to be weather-related. There were large percentage increases in Southeastern states such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee that were hammered by Hurricane Helene. Therefore, the Fed will look through it.  Instead, for the labor market the picture drawn by the Employment Report will prevail: strong employment growth, a decline in unemployment, and stronger average hourly earnings growth. So to summarize, September saw a strong labor market, a rebound in core inflation….  and a 50 bps cut by the Fed.

Nevertheless, three Fed speakers remain convinced that inflation is heading in the right direction and the FOMC can continue to cut rates. John Williams (New York Fed) said  that “Month to month, there’s wiggles and bumps in the data, but we’ve seen this pretty steady process of inflation moving downward … I expect that that will continue.” He also said that he thought it would be appropriate to “continue the process of moving the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral setting over time.” Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) said “the overall trend for inflation over 12 to 18 months was clearly moving down.” Thomas Barkin (Richmond Fed), said inflation was “definitely headed in the right direction.” In contrast to these three, Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) said “I am totally comfortable with skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate.” He also revealed that his September projections would imply one more 25 bps cut this year, after the 50 in September.

Yesterday French prime minister Michel Barnier presented the 2025 budget. Given the dire state of France’s public finances, it was closely watched. Our France watcher Erik-Jan van Harn notes that beforehand Barnier warned that without intervention next year’s deficit could swell to 7% of GDP. Swift action is thus needed so Barnier presented plans to reduce the deficit by EUR60bn next year, around 2% of GDP. The package includes a combination of broad spending cuts and tax rises on big corporations and affluent individuals.

Even though these plans are quite detailed, prime minister Barnier stressed that the budget draft is a starting point for lawmakers. He welcomes any amendments to the plans provided they don't undermine the budget's integrity. However, this openness raises the concern that certain secure cost-saving measures or revenue boosts might be swapped for overly optimistic proposals. Moreover, this open stance clearly shows that Barnier lacks a parliamentary majority. His government relies on opposition backing, which remains uncertain. Chances are that Barnier will have to significantly water down his proposals or that he will face another vote of no confidence.

Consequently, we don’t believe that this budget will take away the market’s worries. Rating agencies are likely to look at this in a similar fashion. Fitch, who currently rates France as AA- with a stable outlook having downgraded the country one notch in April 2023, will review France’s rating after market’s close on October 11.

Our Rates Strategy team notes that it is likely that this review will lead to a downgrade. As of the end of June, the agency saw French budget deficits standing at 5.1% of GDP in 2024 and 4.2% over the ensuing two years. It also warned that a political paralysis risked the introduction of expansionary items into the country’s budget plan in order to ensure its approval whilst also limiting the scope for fiscal consolidation. Given the risks already highlighted by the agency and the comparatively optimistic nature of its earlier projections, we see a rating downgrade as likely. While clearly not a positive from a spread perspective we believe that the market is already largely pricing for such a move. For more details, please read Erik-Jan’s report on the French budget.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 14:05

Goldman Finds "Trade-Down Phenomenon" Strikes Rich & Poor Consumers 

Goldman Finds "Trade-Down Phenomenon" Strikes Rich & Poor Consumers 

Goldman hosted its Private Real Estate Retail (shopping center) Webinar on Thursday with panelists Mary Rottler from First Washington, Daniel Zatloukal from Inland Real Estate, and Joseph Tichar from Raider Hill. The webinar discussed many topics, including the consumer, 2025 same-store NOI growth, retailer bankruptcies, transaction market and cap rates, and the financing environment.

Our focus on the webinar centers around discussing high-end and low-end consumers trading down. This phenomenon occurs as macroeconomic headwinds mount, including elevated inflation and high interest rates due to backfiring 'Bidenomics.' More importantly, trading down occurs when incomes don't keep up with inflation or when purchasing power decreases.

Here are the key takeaways of the high-end and low-end consumers trading down, penned in a note by a team of Goldman analysts led by Caitlin Burrows:

The high-end consumer remains strong while lower-end sees softness, and both are trading down.

  • In terms of the higher-end consumer, panelists noted that across their grocer anchored centers exposed to the upper quartile of demographics, traffic remains strong. August traffic was up +8.7% yoy, with positive y/y monthly trends throughout 2024 and traffic up double digits vs 2022, driving optimistic expectations around the holiday season.

  • Panelists also highlighted that for low-end consumer, demand for essentials and services are still strong but discretionary spending such as luxury and cosmetics is relatively weak, and as a result, holiday sales will rely on how retailers incentivize customers to shop.

  • Panelists noted that the trade-down phenomenon is present in both high-end and low-end consumer. For example, Nordstrom (luxury department store chain) sales are flat to down while Nordstrom Rack (off-price department store chain) sales are up. Additionally, low-end consumer is experiencing some stress and trading down into discount retailers like Walmart, Target, and Sam's.

At the beginning of August, we noted that the last time "trading down" mentions spiked on earnings calls was during GFC.  

The latest inflation data for September printed hotter than expected, and the persistent inflation storm has wreaked havoc on low/mid-tier households. The note above from Goldman is just more evidence that the consumer downturn has spread to wealthier households. 

Could we really replay the '70s once again?

After all, the consumer has never been in worse financial shape, with record-high credit card debt and drained personal savings.

Looking at Goldman's consumer baskets, middle-income consumers are outperforming high-end consumers, while low-income consumers continue to face mounting pressure.

The big takeaway is that our consumer downturn theme continues and possibly now signals stress for the more wealthy households as the Biden-Harris inflation storm persists. Everyone appears to be pissed off about food inflation.

Also, an energy price shock at the gas pump could be ahead if Israel bombs Iran's crude oil export facilities. Price shocks of this kind could trigger a recession.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 13:45

Adversarial Process Or Oppo Research? Judge Agrees To Release More Trump Material Before The Election

Adversarial Process Or Oppo Research? Judge Agrees To Release More Trump Material Before The Election

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

It appears that U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan and Special Counsel Jack Smith are not done yet in releasing material in advance of the election. In a previous column, I criticized the release of Smith’s  180-page brief before the election as procedurally irregular and politically biased, a criticism shared by  CNN’s senior legal analyst and other law professors. Nevertheless, on Thursday, Judge Chutkan agreed to a request from Smith to unseal exhibits and evidence in advance of the election.

The brief clearly contains damning allegations, including witness accounts, for Trump.

The objection to the release of the brief was not a defense of any actions taken on January 6th by the former president or others, but rather an objection to what even the court admitted was an “irregular” process.

As discussed earlier, Smith has been unrelenting in his demands for a trial before the election. He has even demanded that Donald Trump be barred from standard appellate options in order to expedite his trial.

Smith never fully explained the necessity of holding a trial before the election beyond suggesting that voters should see the trial and the results — assaulting the very premise of the Justice Department’s rule against such actions just before elections.

To avoid allegations of political manipulation of cases, the Justice Department has long followed a policy against making potentially influential filings within 60 or 90 days of an election. One section of the Justice Department manual states “Federal prosecutors… may never select the timing of any action, including investigative steps, criminal charges, or statements, for the purpose of affecting any election.”

Even if one argues that this provision is not directly controlling or purely discretionary, the spirit of the policy is to avoid precisely the appearance in this case: the effort to manipulate or influence an election through court filings.

With no trial date for 2025, there is no reason why Smith or Chutkan would adopt such an irregular process. The court could have slightly delayed these filings until after the approaching election or it could have sealed the filings.

If there is one time where a court should err on the side of avoiding an “irregular” process, it is before a national election. What may look like simply an adversarial process to some looks like oppo research to others.  Delaying the release would have avoided any appearance of such bias.

For Smith, the election has long been the focus of his filings and demands for an expedited process. Smith knows that this election is developing into the largest jury verdict in history. Many citizens, even those who do not like Trump, want to see an end to the weaponization of the legal system, including Smith’s D.C. prosecution. Trump has to lose the election for Smith to be guaranteed a trial in the case.

Chutkan has given the Trump team just seven days to oppose her order. That would still allow the material to make it into the public (and be immediately employed by the media and Harris campaign) just days before the election. The move will only increase criticism that this looks like a docket in the pocket of the DNC.

It is telling that, once again, the timing just works out to the way that is most politically impactful. Many are left with a Ned Flanders moment of “well, if that don’t put the “dink” in co-inky-dink.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 13:25

Boeing Union Fight Hits Turbulence, Files Unfair Labor Practice

Boeing Union Fight Hits Turbulence, Files Unfair Labor Practice

Labor strikes at Boeing's commercial jet factories are approaching the one-month mark, with no end to the paralyzing labor action. This seriously threatens Boeing's credit rating, which faces mounting downgrade risks from investment grade to junk status from multiple credit ratings agencies as cash reserves dwindle.

Quartz News reported overnight that Boeing filed unfair labor practice charges with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) against the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, claiming union bosses have been bargaining in bad faith on behalf of the 33,000 striking union members. 

Boeing wrote in a statement that IAM negotiators "did not seriously consider" the latest offer earlier this week, which included a 30% wage bump over four years, up from 25%, and other benefits.

"The union's public narrative is misleading and making it difficult to find a solution for our employees," Boeing said in the filing to the NLRB, adding the union had engaged in a "pattern of bad faith bargaining." The aerospace giant retracted its "best and final" offer on Tuesday. 

Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Stephanie Pope wrote in a memo earlier this week, "Unfortunately, the union didn't seriously consider our proposals. Instead, the union made non-negotiable demands far in excess of what can be accepted if we are to remain competitive as a business."

IAM leaders said the talks collapsed when Boeing negotiators refused to increase wages over the contract's lifespan or reinstate the defined benefit pension. 

As the strike eclipses one month in just a few short days, troubles keep piling up for Boeing. S&P Global Ratings placed the struggling planemaker on CreditWatch negative, citing mounting risks that its investment-grade credit rating would be slashed to junk.

"The CreditWatch listing reflects the increased likelihood of a downgrade if the strike persists toward the end of the year, further constraining the recovery in the company's cash flow generation and the company does not raise capital sufficient to meet its upcoming needs in such a way that does not increase financial leverage," S&P said. 

S&P estimated the labor action costs Boeing $1 billion per month. They expect the target of producing 38 Max jets per month will be pushed to mid-2025. 

There's also concern the planemaker will need to raise money via public equity markets (read more about dilution fears) with its cash balance dwindling: 

Boeing will likely seek incremental funding. We anticipate that Boeing will end 2024 with a cash balance below its $10 billion target if the strike continues through the fourth quarter and the company typically uses cash in the first quarter due to seasonal working capital build. Boeing also has approximately $4 billion of debt maturities due in April 2025. We believe the company will need to seek external capital to meet these demands. Based on its public comments, we assume Boeing is also open to potentially issuing additional equity. However, we believe the company remains exposed to higher-than-expected cash usage and adjusted debt for the next year or two, which could further delay the expected recovery in its credit measure to levels we view as consistent with the rating.

S&P concluded:

The CreditWatch with negative implications placement reflects our view that we could lower our ratings on Boeing if the strike continues, increasing costs and delaying the company's recovery in aircraft production and cash flow generation. We could lower ratings if the company fails to preserve its target cash balance, fund operating and working capital, and meet debt maturities without increasing leverage. We intend to resolve the CreditWatch placement by the end of the year.

Some Wall Street desks following this story are left pondering this question: Which will happen first—Boeing's credit downgrade from investment grade to junk or a deal with the IAM?

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 13:05

Company Recalls Nearly 10 Million Pounds Of Ready-to-Eat Meat, Poultry Over Listeria Risk

Company Recalls Nearly 10 Million Pounds Of Ready-to-Eat Meat, Poultry Over Listeria Risk

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Oklahoma-based BrucePac is pulling millions of pounds of meat items from across the United States due to concerns they may be adulterated with listeria monocytogenes bacteria, according to the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS).

Meat products are offered for sale at a grocery store in Chicago on Oct. 13, 2022. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Roughly 9,986,245 pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry are being recalled, according to an Oct. 9 FSIS announcement.

Consumption of food contaminated with L. monocytogenes can cause listeriosis, a serious infection that primarily affects older adults, persons with weakened immune systems, and pregnant women and their newborns. Less commonly, persons outside these risk groups are affected,” the announcement reads.

“Listeriosis can cause fever, muscle aches, headache, stiff neck, confusion, loss of balance and convulsions sometimes preceded by diarrhea or other gastrointestinal symptoms.”

BrucePac has two manufacturing plants and supplies its products nationwide.

The products were manufactured between June 19, 2024, and Oct. 8, 2024. They were shipped to distributors and other establishments, eventually being sold to restaurants and intuitions. The recalled items come with establishment numbers “51205 or P-51205” printed inside or below the USDA mark of inspection.

No confirmed reports of adverse reactions have been reported so far, the announcement said, while advising people who are concerned about getting ill to contact a health care provider.

The contamination risk was discovered after FSIS conducted routine testing of BrucePac products and found that these items tested positive for listeria monocytogenes.

“FSIS is concerned that some product[s] may be available for use in restaurants, institutions, and other establishments. These other establishments may have used affected meat and poultry in [ready-to-eat] products that may be on store shelves or in consumers’ refrigerators or freezers,” the agency said.

“Restaurants, institutions, and other establishments are urged not to serve or use these products. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.”

Multiple firms have pulled out their products from the market due to listeria fears in recent months.

In July, Virginia-based Boar’s Head Provisions recalled all their liverwurst and other deli meat products, amounting to more than 200,000 pounds. The firm later expanded the recall to an additional 7 million pounds of products.

The same month, Al-Safa US LLC pulled out more than 2,000 pounds of imported frozen ready-to-eat chicken products over listeria contamination concerns.

Listeria Dangers

Listeria is the third leading cause of death in the United States from foodborne illnesses, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The agency estimates that around 1,600 Americans get infected by listeria annually, with 260 people dying from the disease.

Over half of all infections occur among people aged 65 years and older. “As you get older, your immune system has a harder time recognizing and getting rid of harmful germs, including Listeria. You also have less stomach acid, which can help kill germs,” the CDC states.

Older adults with Listeria infection almost always have to be hospitalized. Sadly, 1 in 6 older adults with this infection die.

Among pregnant women, one in 25,000 get infected with the pathogen every year, according to the CDC. Even if the mother does not feel sick from the infection, listeria can spread to the baby and cause harm. One in four pregnant women who get infected either lose their pregnancy or their baby shortly after birth.

As for people with weakened immune systems, these individuals make up 75 percent of all infections, which “almost always leads to hospitalization,” according to the CDC. One in six individuals in this demographic dies from the illness.

Last year, the CDC reported two listeria outbreaks. So far this year, five outbreaks have been reported, with various food products being responsible for these events, including enoki mushrooms, leafy greens, and ice creams.

The agency advises people to choose safer foods to prevent listeria infection. This includes avoiding consuming foods like unpasteurized soft cheeses, unheated deli meats, cold cuts, hot dogs, fermented or dry sausages, and refrigerated smoked fish.

Sticking to safer foods “is especially important if you or someone you cook for is at increased risk for Listeria infection,” the CDC said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 12:50

McDonald's CEO Warns 2025 Will Be "Another Challenging Year" As Bidenomics Financially Crushes Working-Poor Americans 

McDonald's CEO Warns 2025 Will Be "Another Challenging Year" As Bidenomics Financially Crushes Working-Poor Americans 

McDonald's Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski spoke at the Boston College Chief Executives Club event on Thursday, sounding the alarm that low-income customers will remain under strain through the end of the year and into early 2025. 

"We're starting to talk about 2025, and my message to our teams has been: 'We need to be preparing for another challenging year,'" Kempczinski told the audience, adding, "We need to be making sure that we've got a really strong value proposition in all of our markets."

In June, MCD rolled out the $5 meal deal in response to low/mid-tier customers struggling under the failed Bidenomics era (elevated inflation and high interest rates). This deal, which allows customers to pick the following items: a McDouble or McChicken sandwich or 4-piece Chicken McNuggets, a small fry, and a small soft drink, has been well received by customers and was recently just extended through the end of the year.

Kempczinski commented on the limited-time $5 meal deal, noting that MCD will likely revamp its value offerings. 

This comes as MCD reported in July its first quarterly same-store sales drop in nearly four years amid a slowdown in customer spending.

The latest consumer data we've shared with readers shows that working-poor households are cracking.

As we've previously noted, values wars among fast-food chains are heating up:  

MCD CEO also said, "It's easier to deliver value on chicken products than it is on beef products." 

And we wonder why? ...

One of the big themes this year has been low/mid-tier households faltering under the weight of elevated inflation and high interest rates. 

The latest consumer note from Goldman reveals a new survey of 2,000 consumers. It shows many consumers have been pushed into value-seeking mode because of the mounting macroeconomic headwinds.

All in all, remember that VP Harris pushed disastrous Bidenomics to the extreme. 

You hear that consumers... Harris wouldn't have changed a damn thing. 

Economic conditions for the working poor will only get more challenging through the end of the year. MCD reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 29. The lingering problem for consumers is an energy price shock at the pump could materialize if Israel begins bombing Iran's crude oil export facilities. Consumers need to buckle up. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 12:30

Progressives Issue Warning to Harris: Break With Biden On Gaza... Now

Progressives Issue Warning to Harris: Break With Biden On Gaza... Now

Via Common Dreams

With the high-stakes U.S. presidential election less than a month away, warnings about the possible political consequences of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris' refusal to break with President Joe Biden on supporting Israel's assault on Gaza and beyond are taking on fresh urgency amid new survey data showing the vice president narrowly trailing GOP nominee Donald Trump in Michigan—a critical battleground state.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that Harris is trailing Trump by three percentage points in Michigan—a reversal of the university's survey last month, which showed the vice president with a slight lead over her Republican opponent. The new survey showed Harris leading in Pennsylvania and Trump leading in Wisconsin.

Associated Press

While Trump's polling lead in Michigan was within the margin of error, the results amplified preexisting concerns about Harris' chances in the state, which has a large Arab and Muslim population—many of whom have lost family members in Israel's yearlong assault on the Gaza Strip, a relentless military campaign that has intensified in recent days as the prospects of a cease-fire agreement appear nonexistent.

The Quinnipiac poll found that by a margin of 53% to 43%, Michigan respondents said they think Trump—who has expressed support for Israel's devastating bombardment of Gaza—would do a better job "handling the conflict in the Middle East" than Harris.

James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, told Rolling Stone earlier this week that he has expressed to the Harris team that "if you want people to vote for you, you gotta give them a reason."

"They don't seem to care enough about the Arab American vote to do something to get it," said Zogby.

Last month, Zogby's organization released a poll of its own showing that support for Harris would climb nationally if she endorsed an arms embargo against Israel—something she has openly opposed despite pressure from advocacy groups who say it's essential to end Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's obstruction of cease-fire talks.

Zogby noted in his interview with Rolling Stone that Michigan's Lebanese American population is the largest in the United States—potentially compounding Harris' political vulnerability in the state as Israel ramps up its assault on Lebanon with the support of the Biden administration.

"Many of the constituents are Lebanese who have deep attachments to Palestinians," said Zogby, arguing that Israel's escalation in Lebanon "will either put an exclamation point on the outrage or depression—causing them either not to vote or to flip and vote elsewhere."

"The reaction I'm getting, when I go around the country and talk to people, is they want to punish Democrats," Zogby added. "That's not a smart political move, but that's what people are feeling. And I don't have an argument to make because [members of the Harris campaign] haven't given us arguments to make."

Harris has repeatedly acknowledged, including during her speech at the Democratic National Convention in August, the "immense suffering of innocent Palestinians in Gaza who have experienced so much pain and loss over the year."

But Harris has rebuffed calls to create distance between herself and the Biden administration's unwavering support for Israel's assault on Gaza and Lebanon. "No," the vice president responded when asked during a recent televised interview whether she would support withholding U.S. arms shipments to Israel, whose forces have used American weaponry to commit war crimes in Gaza and Lebanon.

Harris has also declined to meet with Americans with family members in Lebanon and Gazaaccording to the co-founder of the Uncommitted National Movement.

Speaking to Mother Jones earlier this week, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud—who is Lebanese American—said Trump "is a threat" to Arab Americans and hardly an advocate of peaceful resolution in the Middle East. But Hammoud said the Harris campaign is not helping its case with voters when it fails to support an arms embargo against Israel, a position that—according to one recent poll—is backed by a majority of the American electorate.

"What I keep pushing back on is it's not this community that has to move in its values and principles and any issues that it's taken a stance on. It's the candidates who have to move," said Hammoud. "And don't move because of Dearborn, by all means. I'm not telling you to move because this small city in the Midwest is telling you to move on these issues. Move because the general American populace has said these issues matter to them."

"And this idea that people will forget?" he continued. "Remember we heard this nine months ago: 'People will forget come November.' People are not forgetting... Genocide is not something you can cast aside."

On Thursday, Emerson College released survey data it collected with The Hill showing that Trump and Harris are in a dead heat in Michigan—further indicating that a small swing in favor of either candidate could tip the scales and potentially decide who takes the White House.

Moira Donegan, a columnist for The Guardianargued Wednesday that "Harris should give a speech in Michigan where she breaks with the Biden administration on Israel."

"This is very obviously in her self-interest to do," Donegan wrote on social media, adding that she doubts the vice president will take her advice. If she did, wrote IfNotNow co-founder Yonah Lieberman, it "would be a seminal political moment that would win Michigan, stop a second Trump administration, and help end a genocide."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 12:10

Silent Majority: Poll Finds Independents Are Far More Conservative Than They're Willing To Admit

Silent Majority: Poll Finds Independents Are Far More Conservative Than They're Willing To Admit

Via Issues & Insights Editorial Board,

If conservatives want to win elections, they don’t need to rile up the base, they need to convince independents to say in public what they believe in private – that they agree with conservatives on most issues and that Democrats are the wildly out-of-touch extremists.

That, at least, is one way to read a fascinating new survey from Populace, a non-partisan think tank in Massachusetts, which figured out a way to discern what 20,000 Americans think privately and compare that to what they are willing to say publicly.

It turns out that there are often wide gaps between the two, which Populace calls the “Social Pressure Index.” People tend to avoid stating their views if they think they’re in the minority.

But here’s the really interesting finding: On a host of bellwether issues, independents are, in private, far more conservative than they will admit to pollsters.

The survey asked questions about democracy, individual rights, the economy, culture, racism, etc.

Take the question of whether the government has “too much control in America.” Fully 71% of independents believe this privately. That is almost identical to the 78% of Republicans who believe it.  In contrast, a mere 17% of Democrats think government has too much control.

When asked if “society is better off when individuals make decisions for themselves rather than having experts make decisions for everyone,” 86% of independents believe this privately, which is close to the 90% of Republicans. Among Democrats, just 63% believe it.

On the economy, independents are deeply depressed. Just 11% think it is doing well, and a mere 4% believe they are better off than they were five years ago. Those numbers are much closer to Republicans (5% and 2%, respectively). Democrats are the extreme outliers (64% think the economy is doing well and 47% think they’re better off).

Independents are also far less favorably inclined toward unions. Fewer than a third believe that “stronger labor unions are good for the economy.” That’s close to the 29% of Republicans. Again, Democrats – 70% said they believe this – are the extremists.

The chart above shows their hidden views on other issues and how they are actually much closer to conservative Republicans than leftist Democrats.

But this isn’t what independents tell pollsters. On almost all these issues, they publicly claim to be more liberal than they really are.

For example, while 86% of independents think privately that society is better off when individuals make decisions for themselves rather than experts doing it for everyone, only 69% are willing to admit that publicly.

While only 3% of independents privately believe that the government should censor offensive content, 20% say they do. Fifty-two percent think public schools focus too much on racism, but only 41% will admit to that view. Six in 10 think the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine, but only 44% will say that publicly.

Why do you suppose that is? The pollsters don’t speculate, but we can. We’d say it’s because the left has so thoroughly infiltrated the media, the entertainment business, education, and every other major institution that they’ve browbeaten independents into denying or hiding their actual views.

The result is that opinion polls skew left, which then only reinforces independents’ desire to stay silent. In reality, it’s leftist Democrats who should be running scared.

— Written by the I&I Editorial Board

Issues & Insights was founded by seasoned journalists of the IBD Editorials page. Our mission is to provide timely, fact-based reporting and deeply informed analysis on the news of the day -- without fear or favor.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 11:30

GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts

GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts, particularly those predicting an imminent recession. There are certainly many supportive data points that have historically predicted recessionary downturns. The reversal of the yield curve inversion, the 6-month rate of change in the leading economic index, and most recently, consumer confidence warn of a recessionary onset.

However, despite these warning signs, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, defying many bearish forecasts. This article will explore the recent GDP report, the risks to continued growth, and potential investing opportunities.

Defying Recession Calls: The Resilient U.S. Economy

Numerous market analysts have warned of an impending recession since early 2023, citing several factors: rapid rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, high inflation, and growing geopolitical risks. Yet, the Q2-2024 GDP growth of 2.96% suggests the U.S. economy is holding up better than expected. That resilience is particularly evident in consumer spending, which remains strong despite persistent inflation and higher interest rates. Currently, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which comprises about 70% of the GDP report, continue to be well above the polynomial growth trend.

Given PCE’s rather significant impact on the GDP report, a recession remains unlikely unless spending slows markedly.

Several aspects of the GDP report highlight the economic strength that has caught many bearish forecasters off guard:

Furthermore, the labor market remains supportive of economic growth. Yes, as shown, employment growth has slowed substantially following the “re-hiring” surge after the pandemic-related shutdown. However, as demand in the economy normalizes, employment growth is returning to its long-term growth trend. The chart below shows the 3-month average growth rate of hiring. As noted, employment growth has slowed but remains in growth mode. Until that 3-month average approaches zero job growth, the risk of a recession remains muted.

Lastly, business investment, another contributing factor to the GDP calculation, doesn’t support the recessionary expectations. Although business investment has been somewhat uneven and certainly weaker following the post-pandemic surge, there are signs that companies are still expanding. At nearly 5% annualized, private investment is not near levels normally associated with an economic recession.

These elements, all part of the last GDP report, suggest that predictions of an impending recession may have been overly pessimistic, at least for now. We will continue to monitor this data, and when it begins to approach levels normally associated with recessionary outcomes, we will warn our readers accordingly.

However, the implications for the stock and bond markets are clear for now.

Market Reactions: Why Investors Are Optimistic

Unsurprisingly, financial markets reacted positively to the latest GDP report, viewing it as evidence that the economy has avoided a recession from a period of elevated interest rates. That optimism has been particularly evident in the stock market, where equities have climbed on the back of positive consumer data.

A notable example is the recent surge in economically sensitive sectors of the market. As noted recently by Sentiment Trader:

“When 90% of cyclical sub-industry groups close above their respective 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages for the first time in six months, and the S&P 500 is within 2% of a five-year high, the world’s most benchmarked index displayed solid returns and consistency across all time horizons. Over the following three months, the S&P 500 advanced 81% of the time, achieving 13 consecutive gains since 1992.”

Most notably, growth-oriented sectors outperformed the S&P 500 over the subsequent year.

Unsurprisingly, as the risk of recession remains low, growth stocks have outperformed high-dividend “defensive” stocks. This is because economic growth provides support for earnings growth. Over the last year, analysts have continued pushing estimates higher into 2025, favoring stocks dependent on faster earnings growth rates.

Since investors are willing to “pay up” for future earnings, valuations have risen sharply.

As we discussed recently, the overall stock market is trading on optimism the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates. With inflation coming down and growth remaining positive, many investors are betting on a scenario where the economy avoids a recession entirely. This “soft landing” narrative has propelled the S&P 500 and other indices despite many recessionary concerns.

Risks to Continued Economic Growth

Despite the Fed’s intervention, several risks to economic growth remain. The Q2 GDP report, while positive, revealed certain vulnerabilities that could threaten future growth, even with lower rates.

1. Weakened Business Investment

Business investment has slowed in recent reports, and as noted above, is a direct input into the GDP report. While lower borrowing costs will encourage some companies to expand, sectors like manufacturing and construction remain constrained by global supply chain issues and external demand. Additionally, as noted in the NFIB Small Business report, businesses may become more reluctant to invest significantly if the economy slows further or the upcoming election outcome suggests higher taxes and more regulations are forthcoming.

2. Housing Market Still Under Pressure

The housing market, one of the most interest-sensitive sectors, has been battered by high mortgage rates. The Fed’s rate cut will provide some relief, but it may not be enough to fully revive housing demand. With mortgage rates still elevated by historical standards and home prices high, affordability remains an issue for many potential buyers. Therefore, while we may see a slight pickup in housing activity, the overall impact of the rate cut on the housing market could be limited.

3. Consumer Spending Could Slow

Although consumer spending remained strong in Q2, higher consumer debt levels—particularly credit card debt—are an increasing concern. While lower interest rates will ease the burden for some borrowers, the overall level of consumer debt remains high. As the labor market cools and wage growth moderates, consumer spending could slow in the coming quarters, especially if inflation continues to pinch household budgets. Notably, PCE as a percentage of GDP has remained relatively stagnant since 2010 despite a significant surge in household debt levels.

Conclusion

I don’t disagree there are many reasons to be concerned about the economy currently. The Government is clearly spending like a “drunken sailor” on pet projects that don’t produce long-term economic prosperity. Geopolitical risks remain along with upcoming election risks that could significantly change the landscape for taxes and regulations.

However, while it is easy to focus on those risks as a reason “not to invest,” the Q2 GDP report continues to provide evidence that undermines many of the “doom and gloom” predictions for the U.S. economy.

At least for now.

Will that eventually change? Absolutely. There will be a recession at some point in the future, whether in six months or three years. However, if we focus on sectors and asset classes that can perform well in both slow-growth and inflationary environments, investors can navigate the current landscape and capitalize on opportunities, even as some analysts continue to warn of recession risks.

Importantly, when a recession approaches, the market has a long history of letting investors know.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/11/2024 - 10:15

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