Individual Economists

"Historic Injustice": DOJ Settles With Retired Gen. Flynn For Malicious Russiagate Prosecution

Zero Hedge -

"Historic Injustice": DOJ Settles With Retired Gen. Flynn For Malicious Russiagate Prosecution

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) and retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a former national security adviser in President Donald Trump’s first term, reached an undisclosed financial settlement Wednesday, according to court documents.

Flynn sought a $50 million payout from the government for what he claimed were politically motivated actions against him. The settlement brings an end to a years-long dispute that stemmed from false claims of Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

Once Flynn has confirmed receipt of the settlement funds, he and the DOJ will file a joint dismissal of the case with prejudice, with each party bearing its own costs and fees, the agreement shows.

Flynn’s lawyer provided an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, including a statement from the former Trump adviser as well.

Although the case has reached a settlement, Flynn said, “Nothing can fully compensate for the hell that my family and I have endured over these many years.”

“There should never again be such a brazen attempt to weaponize federal law enforcement against political opponents or innocent citizens,” Flynn said.

“It is not this Department of Justice that created this crisis of politicized justice, but they are doing right by truly pursuing justice now.”

The settlement, while imperfect, Flynn continued, brings an end to a chapter of partisan, ruinous injustice.

Flynn’s lawyer, Jesse Binnall, called him an American hero in the emailed statement.

“In this agreement, the Justice Department is doing more than simply cutting a check, they are admitting that General Flynn was seriously wronged,” Binnall said.

A DOJ spokesperson also provided an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, stating that Wednesday’s settlement is an important step in redressing a “historic injustice,” referring to the allegations of Russia collusion in 2016 and the prosecution of Flynn that resulted.

“Those who instigated the Russia Collusion Hoax and Crossfire Hurricane abused their power to mislead the American people and tarnish the reputations of President Trump and his supporters,” the DOJ’s statement said.

Crossfire Hurricane was the codename of the FBI investigation into the later-discredited claims of ties between Trump and Russia to influence the 2016 election.

Flynn, a former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) under the Obama administration, was investigated by the FBI beginning in August 2016 over alleged ties to Russia. In January 2017, he was interviewed by two FBI agents and asked about a conversation with a Russian official. At first, he denied the conversation, which was not the truth, then said he didn’t remember. Intelligence officials and others later concluded that the conversation did not involve collusion or illegality.

Nevertheless, that exchange became the core of the charge of lying to the FBI brought against Flynn by the late special counsel Robert Mueller, who took over the case in May 2017.

Flynn initially pleaded guilty but then withdrew that plea, claiming he did not intentionally lie and was misled by his attorneys to enter the guilty plea because prosecutors threatened legal action against his son.

Internal emails from Flynn’s first legal team showed this was true—prosecutors informed his legal team that Flynn’s son would be left alone if he signed the guilty plea.

In 2020, then-head of the District of Columbia U.S. Attorney’s Office Timothy Shea concluded that it seemed the FBI’s purpose for interviewing Flynn was to “elicit ... false statements and thereby criminalize Mr. Flynn.”

The DOJ eventually dropped the charge, but the judge overseeing Flynn’s case refused to dismiss it. Trump ultimately pardoned him in 2020.

In 2023, Flynn filed a lawsuit against the DOJ and FBI, accusing prosecutors from Mueller’s office of investigating and prosecuting him for political reasons.

“General Flynn—who already had a reputation as a hands-on disruptor at DIA, who had publicly excoriated the politicization of the intelligence community, and who had made clear his desire to overhaul the national security structure and the ‘interagency process’—was a direct threat, not only to the self-interest of entrenched intelligence bureaucracies and the federal officials involved, but to exposing their prior and ongoing efforts to derail and discredit President Trump,” the suit stated.

Aside from accusations of a malicious, politically motivated prosecution, Flynn’s suit also accused the government of abusing the legal process by coercing him into the guilty plea with threats of prosecution against his son.

“He was falsely branded as a traitor to his country,” according to the lawsuit.

The suit against the government, which included as defendants the FBI, DOJ, Executive Office of the President, Office of Special Counsel, former FBI Director James Comey, Mueller, and others, further claimed Flynn lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of the prosecution.

“[Trump’s] Department of Justice will continue to pursue accountability at all levels for this wrongdoing,” the DOJ’s emailed statement said. “Such weaponization of the federal government must never be allowed to happen again.”

*  *  * Stash one where it matters

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 09:25

Iran "Laying Traps" And "Building Up Defenses" On Kharg Island, Preparing For U.S. Ground Attack

Zero Hedge -

Iran "Laying Traps" And "Building Up Defenses" On Kharg Island, Preparing For U.S. Ground Attack

Iran has recently bolstered its defenses around Kharg Island, anticipating a possible US move to seize the key oil export hub, CNN reported this week. The island is vital to Iran’s economy, handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, and has become a focal point in escalating tensions.

The Trump administration has explored the option of sending US forces to take control of the island as leverage to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But military officials caution that such an operation would carry serious risks. Iran has reinforced the island with additional air defense systems, including portable missiles, and has planted mines along likely landing zones.

There is also growing skepticism among US allies and policymakers about whether capturing the island would achieve its broader objective. Even if successful, it may not resolve the wider dispute over energy flows and could instead intensify the conflict. An Israeli source warned that US troops could face attacks from drones and shoulder-fired missiles if they attempt a landing.

“I would be very worried about this,” said retired Adm. James Stavridis. “Iranians are clever and ruthless. They will do everything they can to inflict maximum casualties on US forces both on the ships at sea, and especially once ground troops are anywhere in their sovereign territory.”

CNN writes that Iran has responded with its own warnings. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said any attempt to occupy Iranian territory would prompt retaliation against critical infrastructure in the region, adding that US troop movements are under close watch.

Despite its relatively small size—about one-third of Manhattan—Kharg Island would require a substantial military operation to capture. US forces in the region include Marine units trained for amphibious assaults, along with airborne troops preparing to deploy. Surveillance has shown newly fortified positions and defensive preparations on the island.

Although earlier US strikes weakened parts of Iran’s defenses, American forces would still face significant threats from missiles and drones launched from the nearby mainland. This has led to internal debate in Washington over whether the potential benefits justify the risks.

Regional allies are urging restraint, warning that a ground assault could result in heavy casualties and trigger wider retaliation across the Gulf. Some analysts suggest that targeting Iran’s oil exports through a naval blockade could be a less risky alternative to putting troops on the ground.

*  *  * Try it for a month. You'll agree.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 09:05

Jobless Claims Hover Near Record Lows Sustaining 'No Hire, No Fire' Narrative

Zero Hedge -

Jobless Claims Hover Near Record Lows Sustaining 'No Hire, No Fire' Narrative

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time was flat from the prior week at 210.5k (215k exp). Simply put, these numbers are hovering near their lowest levels since 1969...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims also printed below expectations at 1.819 million Americans. This is the lowest level since May 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as a reminder, sentiment surveys suggest the labor market is bifurcated with 'jobs hard to get' but joblessness not surging...

Source: Bloomberg

That chart reinforces the 'no hire, no fire' economy remains the status quo - no worse, no better.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 08:35

Stocks, Bonds Slide As Ceasefire Hopes Fade

Zero Hedge -

Stocks, Bonds Slide As Ceasefire Hopes Fade

It's Day 27 of the war: stocks and bonds fell globally as ceasefire optimism fades given mixed messages on progress toward ending the war in Iran and growing uncertainty over Iran’s willingness to engage in talks about a ceasefire in the Middle East sent oil prices higher. Futures gapped lower just after 5am ET, when Axios reported that the Pentagon is developing military options for a “final blow” in Iran that could include ground troops.  Trump urged Iran “to get serious” before it was too late but Tehran is steadfast saying no negotiations are occurring and both side rejecting each other’s deal demands as the fighting continues & more military assets arriving. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.9%, at session lows, with about 48 hours before a US delay in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure expires. Nasdaq futures slumped more than 1%.In premarket trading, Mag7 names were down with all sectors lower ex-Energy. Brent resumed its advance, rising 3.8% to above $106 a barrel; Oil is on track for its biggest monthly jump in more than three decades, as the Trump administration examines potential consequences if prices spike to $200 a barrel. The move rekindled inflation fears and pushed yields higher as money markets priced in tighter monetary policy. Two-year Treasury yields rose four  basis points to 3.93% as the yield curve bear flattened with yields +4 – 6bp; the 10Y yield was back up to 4.39%, pushing the USD also higher. Gold slipped below $4,450 an ounce. Today’s macro data focus is on initial / continuing claims

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -1%, Amazon -1%, Apple -0.2%, Nvidia -1.2%, Meta -1.3%, Microsoft -0.4%, Tesla -1%)

  • US mining stocks fell and energy stocks rose as attacks in the Middle East continued and US President Donald Trump warned Iran to get serious about discussions “before it is too late.”
  • Memory-chip stocks fall in reaction to a new compression technique proposed by Google researchers that could reduce the amount of memory needed for AI workloads. Micron (MU) falls 2% while Sandisk (SNDK) declines 3%.
  • Equitable Holdings Inc. (EQH) gains 3% and Corebridge Financial Inc. (CRBG) rises 1.7% as the US insurers are set to merge in an all-stock deal valuing that combined business at $22 billion.
  • Kodiak Sciences (KOD) climbs 43% after the drug developer gave efficacy data from a late-stage trial of its experimental drug for diabetic retinopathy — a complication of diabetes that affects the eyes.
  • MillerKnoll (MLKN) drops 18% after the office furniture designer’s earnings forecast for the fourth quarter missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Navan (NAVN) rises 18% after the business travel platform reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook analysts see as both positive and conservative.
  • Olaplex (OLPX) rose more than 50% after Henkel agreed to buy the hair-care brand in a $1.4 billion deal.
  • Precigen (PGEN) jumps 15% after the biopharmaceutical company said first-quarter revenue is expected to exceed $18 million, driven by sales of its recurrent respiratory papillomatosis treatment, Papzimeos.

In other corporate news, Blackstone is said to be close to a deal to buy Rowan Digital Infrastructure, which may value the major U.S. data center developer at more than $10 billion. Novo Nordisk’s Chairman is set for an earful at the AGM after a boardroom coup, with investors pointing to recent missteps. 

With markets already on edge over Iran's unwillingness to negotiate ceasefire terms, the mood deteriorated overnight after an Axios report that the Pentagon is developing military options for a "final blow" in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign.  Trump claimed Iran was desperate for a deal to end hostilities and the White House insisted peace talks are ongoing, even as Tehran publicly rejected US overtures and issued fresh conditions of its own to end the conflict. Those included sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz, and drafting laws to introduce tolls for safe passage.  

“If Iran were to signal willingness to negotiate and an end to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz became more likely, equity markets may quickly move back to previous highs,” said Wolf von Rotberg, strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “Yet Iran has so far declined all offers to talk as time is on their side.”

In AI news, memory stocks are under pressure on concerns over demand after Google researchers touted its new TurboQuant technology, a new compression technique. Bulls suggest the improved efficiency may actually increase demand, but related stocks at risk of profit taking after exponential moves in related stocks. Accenture launched Cyber.AI powered by Claude, Anthropic’s AI model. 

Private credit is again in focus after Jefferies’ results missed Wall Street estimates, dragged down by losses on wayward credit bets, an Ares private credit fund posted its steepest monthly loss on record and ex-Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein warned of “fire” risk in private markets. In contrast, executives from Apollo, Blackstone and Blue Owl said they don’t see evidence of rising systemic risks or defaults, which is to be expected since they all run... private credit funds.

BlackRock Inc. President Rob Kapito said investors may be underestimating the risks stemming from the war, which are likely to weigh on economic growth and drive inflation higher even if the conflict ends soon.

“What if this disruption is a week, six months, a year — what is it going to mean for the companies that I own?” Kapito said. “My biggest concern is that people aren’t looking at this - they’re just making the assumption” for an optimistic outcome.

JPMorgan expects around $65 billion of equity buying and bond selling due to March-end rebalancing; Goldman sees a more modest $13 billion. Elsewhere, global investors are on track to withdraw a record amount from Asian EM equities excluding China, as surging oil prices due to the Middle East conflict cloud the region’s outlook. 

The Fed’s Stephen Miran said he moved up his projection for where interest rates should end the year by half a percentage point in response to disappointing inflation data, not due to oil and Iran. A plethora of Fed speakers are on deck later today. 

In politics, FHFA’s Pulte sent letters to the DOJ encouraging prosecutors to open new fraud investigations into New York Attorney General Letitia James related to real estate. G-7 energy, finance ministers and monetary policy makers will meet on Monday to discuss the situation in the Middle East. Officials in Berlin have started mapping vulnerabilities in US supply chains to identify points where Germany and its European Union partners could apply pressure.

European stocks slumped more than 1.2% as higher energy prices dampen sentiment. Stoxx 600 falls 1.2% to 580.54 with mining and technology stocks leading declines. The biggest outperformers were chemicals and personal care shares. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

  • Next shares rally as much as 6.9%, the most in five months, after the clothing retailer posted annual profits that were slightly ahead of the upgraded guidance outlined in January, having boosted its outlook five times throughout the year
  • Comet rises as much as 4.8% after BNP Paribas double-upgrades the semiconductor equipment components supplier to outperform from underperform, citing expectations the company will benefit from a multi-year memory capex super-cycle
  • THG shares rise as much as 8.8%, among the top gainers in the FTSE 250 Index on Thursday morning, after the online retailer reported 2025 results and said it’s had a strong start to the new year, which support revenue and adjusted Ebitda expectations
  • Pollen Street rises as much as 8.4%, the most since Jan. 2025, after the alternative asset manager delivered results which Panmure Liberum says came in ahead of consensus expectations
  • The Stoxx 600 basic resources index is the worst-performing sector in Europe, falling as much as 3.6% on Thursday
  • Boliden drops as much as 19%, the most since January 2008, after providing an update on the abnormally high seismic activity that has impacted production at its key Garpenberg mine
  • Edenred shares drop as much as 16%, slumping to a 2016-low, after the Italian Competition Authority launched an investigation into its Italian subsidiary over possible abuse of its dominant market position in the meal voucher market
  • H&M slips as much as 6.6%, the most since September 2024, after the Swedish fast-fashion retail group reported weaker-than-expected current trading which analysts said overshadowed margin strength in the first quarter
  • Currys shares drop as much as 11%, the most in over two years, after announcing the departure of Chief Executive Alex Baldock
  • 3i Group shares fall as much as 3.3% after sales and margin at Action, its largest portfolio company, missed analyst estimates
  • CSG shares fall as much as 6.7% after the recently-listed defense firm posted weaker-than-expected earnings in its Ammo+ small caliber ammunition division, though it saw a better performance in military vehicles and weapons

Asian stocks fell after two consecutive days of gains as conflicting signals from the US and Iran about their ceasefire talks turned investors cautious. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.4% before paring some declines. Shares of South Korean chipmaking giants Samsung and SK Hynix were the biggest drags on the benchmark, slumping on concerns over demand after Google researchers touted a new compression technique that can reduce memory size for large language models and vector search engines. Equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and Indonesia were among the top losers in Asia alongside the Kospi, while markets in India were shut for a holiday. Strategists at Goldman Sachs downgraded the South Asian nation’s stocks to marketweight from overweight, citing higher‑for‑longer energy prices from the war.

In FX, markets are contained compared to stocks and bonds with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index barely up 0.1% as the greenback posts a mixed performance versus peers.

In commodities, Brent crude is up over 3% and around the $106 per barrel mark with the US and Iran providing conflicting comments on efforts to end the war. More recently, an Axios report noted that the Pentagon is developing military options for a “final blow” in Iran.

In rates, higher energy prices are again dragging bonds lower with US yields up 4-5bps across the curve. Norwegian bonds saw further losses after the Norges Bank held rates steady but pointed towards a potential rate hike.

Spot gold and silver are on the back foot, showing respective losses of 1.5% and 4%. Bitcoin is down 1.9%.  

US economic data scheduled includes weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am) and March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Cook (4pm), Miran (6:30pm), Jefferson (7pm) and Barr (7:10pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.8%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -1%
  • Russell 2000 mini -1.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -1.3%
  • DAX -1.6%
  • CAC 40 -1.1%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.38%
  • VIX +2.2 points at 27.51
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1212.32
  • euro little changed at $1.1557
  • WTI crude +3.4% at $93.38/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The Pentagon is developing military options for a "final blow" in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign: Axios
  • President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks. The president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
  • Israeli officials say a US-Iran deal remains unlikely, but fear President Donald Trump could still declare a temporary ceasefire as talks continue. Jerusalem Post
  • Trump administration officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign senior officials are studying the possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the Iran war. BBG
  • On the stage and sidelines of a global energy conference in Houston, CEOs painted a much bleaker picture: Financial markets aren’t accurately reflecting the gravity of the crisis, the war is crippling the world’s fuel supplies, and the industry’s Middle East operations are at risk, they said. WSJ
  • Hong Kong is weighing “big bang” tax cuts that may allow many asset managers to earn their performance fees free of all levies. FT
  • Norway’s central bank said it’ll probably raise its benchmark rate at one of its forthcoming meetings. Officials left it at 4% today, as expected. BBG
  • Germany has plans for the EU to squeeze US tech, drug supplies and manufacturers in its next dispute with Trump. The goal is to create a consensus among bloc members on how to best use their leverage. BBG
  • Gulf and European allies are closely watching and growing concerned about the lack of momentum towards negotiations to end the conflict or even put a ceasefire into place. CNN
  • An Ares-managed $23 billion private credit fund posted its steepest monthly loss on record in February. BBG
  • Global investors are on track to withdraw a record amount from Asian EM equities excluding China, as surging oil prices due to the Middle East conflict cloud the region’s outlook. BBG
  • White House confirms that US President Trump is to hold a cabinet meeting is to be held from 10:00EDT/14:00GMT on Thursday.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded cautiously as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained fluid, with mixed messages from the US and Iran about talks, while strikes persisted overnight against Iran and its regional neighbours. ASX 200 closed slightly lower with miners, tech and materials front-running declines, but with downside cushioned by gains in energy, defensives and financials, while price action was contained by a lack of data or fresh major catalysts. Nikkei 225 retreated as the rebound in oil stoked inflationary and growth concerns, given Japan's large dependency on Middle East oil, despite the government releasing emergency oil reserves, as planned. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid a deluge of earnings releases and with developer debt concerns stoked as China Vanke seeks another bond repayment delay, whilst it works on a restructuring plan.

Top Asian News

  • Japan's provisional budget is seen totalling around JPY 8.6tln, according to NHK.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.1%) have gotten off to a softer start to Thursday's session. The DAX 40 underperforms, hindered by poor Porsche SE (-2.6%) earnings, while the SMI outperforms with only mild losses, as Kuehne+Nagel, along with the broader shipping sector, is supported by Hapag-Lloyd earnings. European sectors are entirely in the red, with Basic Resources, yet again, sitting at the bottom of the pile as metals prices continue to fall. Technology also prints decent losses, following news stateside by Google that its new TurboQuant tech can reduce the amount of memory needed for AI workloads, which is weighing on computer memory and storage makers (ASML -3.8%).

Top European News

  • Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) Q/Q 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%).
  • Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q4) Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.7%).
  • German GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr) -28.0 vs. Exp. -26.5 (Prev. -24.7, Low. -32.2, High. -25.6).
  • Italian Business Confidence (Mar) 88.8 (Prev. 88.5).
  • Italian Consumer Confidence (Mar) 92.6 (Prev. 97.4).

Trade/Tariffs

  • Germany reportedly drafts a plan to hit US tech, drug supplies and companies, Bloomberg reported citing sources; officials are mapping vulnerabilities in US supply chains to apply pressure on the US.
  • China's Foreign Ministry, on Trump's China visit announcement for May 14-15th, said the two sides have maintained communication.
  • China Commerce Ministry will impose an additional 55% tariff on beef imports from Australia after quota threshold reached.
  • EU's Dombrovskis said we have received assurances from the US that they intend to honour the trade deal.
  • US President Trump said Supreme Court ruling on tariffs will cost the US hundreds of millions.

FX

  • DXY is essentially flat and trades within a narrow 99.56-99.75 range, with price action taking a breather after a string of ceasefire related volatility. Recent reports surrounding the Middle East situation suggests that US President Trump told aides he wants a speedy end to the Iran war and wants to wrap up the conflict in the coming weeks, via WSJ. Elsewhere, Israeli Media reported that US President Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran by next Saturday. Jobless claims and a slew of Fed speak is due throughout the day.
  • G10s are incrementally lower against the USD (ex-Antipodeans). Ultimately, subdued price action as markets await updates related to concrete progress on the ceasefire plan, or the risk of another bout of escalation measures. Most recently, Axios reported that Trump is preparing for a massive “final blow” against Iran. Antipodeans are at the bottom of the G10 pile this morning, with the Kiwi underperforming – pressure which follows the broader downbeat risk-tone. EUR/USD trades within a very thin 1.1547-1.1572 range, and ultimately little moved to ECB’s Nagel and de Guindos. Elsewhere, Cable is incrementally lower, as traders await commentary from BoE’s Breeden, Taylor and Greene. Focus will be on the former, given Taylor spoke last week (remained dovish), whilst Greene spoke on Wednesday.
  • NOK is net-unchanged in the aftermath of the Norges Bank policy announcement, where the Bank kept rates steady at 4% (as expected). There was some volatility at the time, with EUR/NOK moving higher as traders unwound outside bets of a hike. That move since entirely pared. Decision aside, focus was on the MPR and accompanying commentary was hawkish, with the Bank noting that "it will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings". This was also reflected by the updated MPR, whereby the end-2026 rate is now seen at 4.35% (prev. 3.71%); 2027 was revised higher to 3.98% (prev. 3.31%), and the "terminal rate" was raised to 3.54% (prev. 3.20%).

Fixed Income

  • Once again, another session dictated by energy movements and the associated implications for prices and yields.
  • USTs are lower by 12 ticks at most, to a 110-16+ trough. If the move continues, we look to the 110-05+ mark from the 24th, and then the 109-31+ WTD base. Ahead, a handful of data points, numerous Fed speakers and supply features in a relatively busy schedule; however, geopolitics will likely continue to dictate.
  • Bunds in-fitting. At a 125.30 low, with losses of nearly 70 ticks at most. If the move continues, we look to support at 125.02 and then the 124.77 WTD base. For Europe, newsflow is somewhat limited, with no move to a handful of data points or ECB officials. The region's docket ahead is a little light, and as such, action will be determined by the above US points and/or Middle East developments.
  • Gilts took the lead from peers and opened with losses of over 60 ticks before falling another 35 or so to a 87.73 trough. If the move continues, we look to recent bases at 87.06, 86.81 and then the contract low of 85.91. A busy BoE docket today, with Taylor and Greene scheduled; though, we have yet to see anything of pertinence from Breeden.

Commodities

  • Crude futures gradually edged higher overnight and held onto that strength throughout the European morning, with Brent Jun'26 printing a USD 100.96/bbl peak (vs USD 97.69/bbl low) while WTI May'26 prints a current USD 94.13-90.71/bbl range.
  • On the geopolitical front, US President Trump reportedly told aides that he wants a speedy end to the war and believes the conflict is in its final stages. Meanwhile, Israeli media reported that Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran by next Saturday, even without a final agreement, while N12 News separately said the working assumption in Israel is that he could announce a ceasefire as soon as this coming Saturday. More recently, it was reported US Pentagon is reportedly preparing for a massive "final blow" of the Iran war, via Axios.
  • Spot gold is lower after a two-day recovery, with bullion back under USD 4,450/oz at the time of writing, giving back most of the prior session gains, amid the conflicting US and Iranian statements. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 4,412-4,544/oz range after finding support on Monday at its 200-DMA (4,091.57/oz)
  • Base metals are also softer, with copper under pressure as investors weigh the inflationary implications of the conflict alongside the risk of weaker global activity and softer demand. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,114.00- 12,276.08/t range at the time of writing.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak says "we will impose a gasoline export bank if necessary"; has possibility to increase oil production if required, but investment will be needed; is already trading oil without discount, and with a premium in a number of lines.
  • French Commerce Minister said release of strategic oil reserves to be discussed at G7 minister meeting on Monday.
  • Japan begins releasing national oil reserves, as expected, according to Kyodo.
  • Turkish oil tanker was hit by a drone in the Black Sea near Istanbul.
  • Saudi Arabia’s oil sales to China and India are set to be lower-than-usual levels next month, according to Bloomberg.
  • Japan is reportedly to lift restrictions on coal-fired power plant operation as an emergency response to the Middle East situation for a one-year limit period, according to the Nikkei.
  • Philippines suspends electricity market due to Middle East conflict and proposes modified administered pricing by April 1st, cites fuel supply risks and price volatility for the suspension.
  • Pilbara ports in Australia said they closed the ports of Ashburton, Cape Preston West, Dampier and Varanus Island due to cyclone Narelle.

Central Banks

  • Norges Bank maintains its rate unchanged at 4.0% as expected; "it will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings". STANCE. The Committee judges that a tighter monetary policy stance is needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable time horizon. The inflation outlook indicates that an increase in the policy rate will likely be required. The Committee therefore wants to await further information on the prospects for inflation. FUTURE POLICY. The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates higher inflation than currently projected, a higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said to have discussed ways to recast ties between the Fed and the Treasury in the Bank of England's image, and praises BoE's market intervention capabilities, according to FT.
  • ECB's de Guindos said the outbreak for the Iran war has made the growth and inflation outlook significantly more uncertain, sharp increase in energy prices poses upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth. ECB is well positioned to navigate this uncertain period.
  • ECB's Nagel said the ECB will have enough data by April to determine if they need to act or whether to wait and see.
  • ECB hopes to look through energy price shock from Iran war and Lagarde said it's too early to know the impact of the Iran war, while it sees rates steady if shock is temporary but may hike rates twice if energy shock is persistent, according to FT.
  • BoE's Breeden (neutral) says firms and workers are likely to have less price and wage bargaining power, so second round effects less likely.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda said large JGB holding doesn't make policy adjustments difficult, adds conducting policy to achieve price stability target.
  • RBA Assistant Governor Kent said the board will set monetary policy to achieve low and stable inflation and full employment. Will continue to assess the countervailing forces operating on the economy. Middle East conflict has tightened financial conditions. The longer the conflict persists, the larger the economic impacts will be.
  • CNB Minutes (Mar): Ready to tighten policy if core inflation rises, agreed a rate hike is premature now.
  • UBS expects the Fed to deliver two 25bps cuts in September and December (prev. saw cuts in June and September).

Geopolitics

  • US Pentagon reportedly prepares for massive "final blow" of Iran war, Axios reported. The Pentagon developing military options for a "final blow" in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign. Options include: Invading or blockading Kharg Island; Invading Larak, an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz; seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE; Blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait.
  • Pakistan Foreign Minister says US-Iran indirect talks are taking place through messages being relayed by Pakistan.
  • US President Trump says NATO nations have done absolutely nothing to help with Iran.
  • US Pentagon is considering diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East, WaPo reported. Comes as the war in Iran depletes some of the US military’s most critical munitions, according to sources cited.
  • US President Trump said Iran is negotiating and wants a deal, but is afraid to say so, adds no one in Iran wants to be Supreme Leader right now.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran's current policy is to continue resistance in the face of ongoing unprovoked American-Israeli aggression while ruling out negotiations and ceasefire in the absence of required guarantees, according to Press TV. Vessels belonging to “friendly countries” including China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan had been allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • IRGC has reportedly imposed a de facto ‘toll booth’ regime in the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessels to submit full documentation, obtain clearance codes and accept IRGC-escorted passage through a single controlled corridor, according to Lloyd's List.
  • US Central Command said USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier continues to carry out strikes on military targets in Iran, while CENTCOM also said most of the Iranian facilities used to build missiles, drones and warships, are badly damaged or destroyed.
  • Iranian-linked Handala Hack Group say they have "initiated a new phase of Operation Lockheed Martin (LMT)", said Co. employees have 48 hours to respond, Mehr News reported.
  • Pakistani official said Israel took Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf off the hit list after Pakistan requested the US not to target them.
  • Iran targeting an American fuel supplier, according to a report cited by Tasnim.
  • The IRGC naval commander was eliminated in Bandar Abbas, according to the Jerusalem Post citing an Israeli source.
  • Hezbollah said it targeted headquarters of Israel's Ministry of Defense with missiles on Thursday and barracks affiliated with the military intelligence department of Israel's army in the north of Tel Aviv, was also one of the targets of the operation.
  • Egypt's Foreign Minister said Cairo is ready to host talks to support de-escalation between US and Iran, and backs President Trump's push for negotiations, adding he hopes there will be direct talks between the two sides.
  • UAE Foreign Minister discussed developments in the region and the repercussions of Iran's missile attacks on the UAE and brotherly countries in a call with foreign ministers of Pakistan, Britain, Spain, France and Kazakhstan.
  • Local sources say huge explosions occurred in the Amir Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia following drone attacks.
  • Explosions heard in Iranian cities of Isfahan and Bandar Abbas.
  • Arab sources report a loud explosion was heard in the capital of the UAE, according to SNN.
  • Israel's Ben Gurion airport halts all operations amid Iranian missile barrage, according to Press TV.
  • Russia's Kremlin says "we have not lost interest in peace talks"; territory is one issue that has not been settled.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine does not see any genuine desire from Russia to end the war.
  • Russia attacked damaged ports and energy infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region, according to the regional governor.
  • UK authorises armed forces to board Russian shadow fleet tankers in British waters, according to The Guardian.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States Mar 21 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 205k
  • 8:30 am: United States Mar 14 Continuing Claims, est. 1849k, prior 1857k
  • 4:00 pm: United States Fed’s Cook Speaks on Financial Stability
  • 6:30 pm: United States Fed’s Miran Speaks on Balance Sheet
  • 7:00 pm: United States Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on the US Economy
  • 7:10 pm: United States Fed’s Barr in Moderated Conversation

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, oil prices are moving higher again, with Brent crude up +1.86% overnight to $104.12/bbl. Several factors are responsible, but a big one is that Iran have continued to reject the messages from the US about some kind of deal, raising questions about whether there is really an off-ramp to the conflict in the days ahead. Indeed, market attention is quickly turning to the end of Trump’s 5-day deadline from Monday, when he said he’d postpone strikes against Iranian power plans and energy infrastructure. So that’s just over 48 hours away now, and multiple outlets have reported that thousands of US troops have been sent to the region. So the prospect of a fresh escalation is still top of mind for investors.

That shift in sentiment has hit global markets this morning, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.20%) and the DAX (-0.49%) both lower, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+2.6bps) are back up to 4.36%. Indeed, the 2yr Treasury yield (+3.1bps) is currently at 3.91%, the highest since July. Meanwhile in Asia, the major equity indices have lost ground as well, with the Nikkei (-0.52%), the Hang Seng (-1.43%), CSI 300 (-0.62%), Shanghai Comp (-0.67%) and the KOSPI (-2.70%) all falling back. Moreover, Japanese bond yields have continued to rise, with the 2yr JGB yield (+3.2bps) up to 1.32% this morning, which is the highest it’s been since 1996. So it’s a tough morning across the board. 

For markets, the issue is there’s still plenty of doubt about whether a US-Iran deal can be reached, given how Iran have publicly rejected the US on several occasions. So that’s seen markets become increasingly sceptical about positive headlines from the US side, because we haven’t seen similar noises from Iran. For a sense of the difference, it’s been widely reported that the US have a 15-point plan, which includes the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That hasn’t been confirmed by the White House, but Press Secretary Leavitt said there were elements of truth to the reports. Meanwhile, CNN reported yesterday that Vice President JD Vance might travel to Pakistan this weekend for a meeting to discuss an off-ramp. And White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the US was engaged in “productive conversations”. So all that suggested some kind of progress towards a ceasefire.

By contrast, we’ve had much more negative rhetoric on the Iranian side. Indeed, oil prices moved higher after Iran’s Fars News cited sources who said the moves by Trump to start indirect talks were illogical and not viable at this stage. Then, Iran’s Press TV cited an official who said Iran would end the war when it chose, and when its conditions were met, including security guarantees and recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Later on, Reuters also reported that Iran has demanded for Lebanon to be involved in any ceasefire, implying an end to Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah. So by the close, that meant Brent crude had risen from $97.30/bbl during the European morning to end the US session at $102.22/bbl, before its latest climb this morning to $104.12/bbl.

Before that, markets had seen a more positive session yesterday when oil prices were lower, as that helped to ease concerns on the extent of any inflation shock. So that led investors to dial back their expectations for rate hikes this year, which in turn helped bonds and equities on both sides of the Atlantic. For the Fed, that meant just 4bps of hikes were priced for this year by the close, down -1.8bps on the day. And for the ECB, the probability of a hike at the next meeting in April came down from 86% to 62% by the close.

For the ECB, that shift in market pricing followed comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said they would “not act before we have sufficient information on the size and persistence of the shock and its propagation”. So that offered some reassurance against an imminent hike, although she also said they were “prepared, if appropriate, to make changes to our policy at any meeting”. Separately, we also had the latest Ifo business climate indicator from Germany, which fell to a 13-month low of 86.4 in March (vs. 86.3 expected). So again, that cemented investor conviction that the European economy was slowing down given the conflict, in line with what the flash PMIs had shown the previous day. 

Given all that, sovereign bonds rallied across Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-7.0bps), OATs (-10.6bps) and BTPs (-11.6bps) all posting large falls. Moreover, 10yr UK gilts (-11.7bps) saw a decent decline as well, despite some upside surprises in the latest CPI print yesterday. That showed headline CPI remained at +3.0% in February, as expected, but core CPI unexpectedly moved up to +3.2% (vs. +3.1% expected). And in the US it was a similar story, with yields falling back as investors priced in less inflation and fewer rate hikes. So the 2yr yield (-0.4bps) fell to 3.9%, and the 10yr yield (-3.0bps) fell to 4.33%. Interestingly, that also pushed the 2s10s Treasury curve down to 44bps, which is the flattest it’s been since July. 

For equities, it was a decent session across the board yesterday too. In the US, the S&P 500 (+0.54%) advanced, and remains on track for its first weekly gain since the strikes began, having risen +1.31% over the three days so far this week. That gain was supported by a decent performance for the Magnificent 7 (+0.78%), whilst small-caps in the Russell 2000 (+1.23%) hit a two-week high. Those moves came as the VIX index (-1.62pts to 25.33) eased to its lowest level since last Thursday. Meanwhile, gold (+0.68%) posted back-to-back gains for the first time in three weeks.  

Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.42%) also did well, posting a third consecutive advance for the first time since the strikes began, taking it up to a one-week high. And that was echoed elsewhere, with the DAX (+1.41%), the CAC 40 (+1.33%) and the FTSE MIB (+1.48%) all posting solid gains. 

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for March, and the Euro Area money supply for February. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Cook, Miran, Jefferson and Barr, along with the ECB’s de Guindos and Muller, and the BoE’s Breeden, Taylor and Greene.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 08:29

Will AI Trigger The Next Great Depression?

Zero Hedge -

Will AI Trigger The Next Great Depression?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Our article title is certainly scary. The question we pose has become a hot topic following the release of “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” by Citrini Research.

While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we can distill both optimistic and pessimistic views into two straightforward questions.

  • Will AI bring about an era of unmatched prosperity and productivity, freeing workers from monotonous tasks, revitalizing old industries, and creating new and unimaginable ones?
  • Or will AI displace many white-collar workers faster than the economy can absorb them, triggering a deflationary spiral with consequences that rival the Great Financial Crisis or worse, the Great Depression?

To better understand how AI might affect the labor market and, ultimately, the economy, we review the bleak Citrini article alongside more optimistic rebuttals from Citadel Securities and Bianco Research. The articles and our summaries provide a useful primer on how the labor markets may adjust to the upcoming major technological changes.

The articles we review are linked below.

The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis – Citrini Research

The 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis – Citadel Securities

An Alternate View of the Post-AI Labor Market – Bianco Research

Citrini: A Warning from the Future

The pessimistic outlook comes from Citrini Research’s recent article, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” The author cleverly frames the article as a memo written two years from now, looking back on an economic catastrophe that is already underway. The article is not a prediction. To wit, they start with the following caveat:

What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored.

Citrini’s scenario starts with the “opening act,” something that is already in motion: agentic AI is making software cheaper and easier to develop. Citrini writes:

 A competent developer working with Claude Code or Codex could now replicate the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS product in weeks,

The Software as a Service (SaaS) industry is based on initial purchase revenue and recurring subscription income. In Citrini’s view, this business model falters in the face of AI, causing wide-ranging effects across the industry. 

What makes Citrini’s view concerning is not the impact on software companies and their employees. It is the negative feedback loop rippling through the economy.

 AI capability improves, payroll shrinks, spending softens, margins tighten, companies buy more capability, capability improves,…. A negative feedback loop with no natural brake.

Citrini: Act Two- The Intelligence Displacement Spiral

Citrini’s pessimistic outlook extends well beyond the SaaS industry. That is merely the opening act. Act two is what Citrini calls “the intelligence displacement spiral.” This is a self-reinforcing loop in which displaced white-collar workers across many industries are pushed into the gig economy, depressing wages and weighing on economic activity. Bear in mind that wages and employment have a significant impact on consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP. Moreover, the author reminds us that, in their scenario, the new employees- machines- spend “zero” dollars on discretionary goods.

It’s not just joblessness and a faltering economy. The once dependable backstop for the economy — the US government — will be dealing with falling tax revenue amidst already large fiscal deficits, and a significant preexisting debt load. To wit:

The government needs to transfer more money to households at precisely the moment it is collecting less money from them in taxes.

As is typical, the economic struggles will spread to the financial markets.  For example, they foresee a large number of software-related private credit defaults, which weigh heavily on insurance companies that invest heavily in these assets. Also consider the mortgage market, with approximately $13 trillion in US mortgage debt, the repayment of which depends on borrowers maintaining their current income.  They write:

 In 2008, the loans were bad on day one,” Citrini notes. “In 2028, the loans were good on day one. The world just…changed after the loans were written.

They conclude:

As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won’t survive the decade. As a society, we still have time to be proactive.

The canary is still alive.

The Rebuttal: Citadel Securities

The first rebuttal we summarize is courtesy of Citadel Securities.

As the title alludes (The 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis), Citadel’s article was clearly motivated by their disagreement with Citrini. They start by directly challenging Citrini’s pessimistic assessment of today’s software job market. The graph below shows that job postings for software engineers are rising, up 11% year-over-year. Furthermore, they state that St. Louis Fed data on AI adoption at work “presents little evidence of any imminent displacement risk.”

Citadel’s core argument is that Citrini is wrong about AI’s recursive potential, specifically the speed and breadth of its spread throughout the economy. To wit:

“Technological diffusion,” or the rate at which a new technology spreads through the economy, has historically followed an “S-curve.”

Essentially, Citadel argues that even if Citrini is right about where AI is eventually headed, the pace of getting there is likely far slower than Citrini assumes — and that slower pace gives the labor market, businesses, and governments time to adapt.

They write:

Markets often extrapolate the acceleration phase linearly, but history implies the pace of adoption plateaus as organizational integration is costly, regulation emerges, and diminishing marginal returns exist in economic deployment.

Citadel also directly challenges Citrini’s macroeconomic logic. They claim:

AI-driven automation is a productivity shock. Productivity shocks are positive supply shocks: they lower marginal costs, expand potential output, and increase real income. They are in isolation disinflationary and growth-enhancing in the medium term.

They support the opinion by noting how steam power, electrification, the internal combustion engine, and, more recently, computing, have followed the “S-curve” pattern. Furthermore, they argue that lower prices due to productivity growth increase consumption.

Defining GDP

They support the argument with the national income accounting identity.  

The national income identity states that all spending in the economy (Y) comes from four categories: consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (X-M –exports minus imports)

Or:

Y = C + I + G + (X − M)

Because this is an identity, it always holds true. Citadel states:

If output rises and real GDP increases then by national income accounting identity something must be rising on the demand side: Consumption, investment, government spending, or net exports must be increasing (more here). A scenario in which productivity surges but aggregate demand collapses while measured output rises violates accounting identities.

More simply, everything produced is ultimately purchased by someone. Consumers (C) buy it, businesses (I) invest in it, the government (G) spends on it, or foreign buyers (X-M) import it. Those are the only four options. If total economic output (Y) is rising — which Citrini’s scenario assumes, since AI is driving a productivity boom — then by definition someone must be doing more buying. You cannot have an economy producing more and selling less at the same time. The basic math and capitalist motives do not allow for it.

Historically, technological revolutions have altered task composition rather than eliminated labor as an input. To produce a negative demand shock large enough to overwhelm output expansion, one must assume near-total automation of economically relevant labor combined with extremely weak redistributive responses. To frame this debate correctly one can simply ask, was the advent of Microsoft office a complement or substitute for office workers? Ex-ante, the concern skewed towards substitution; ex post, it appears a clear complement.

Citadel brings up an important historical note. In 1930, John Maynard Keynes, in his piece “Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren,” predicted that rising productivity would reduce the workweek to fifteen hours by the early twenty-first century. He was right about productivity growth but dead wrong about the labor market implications. To wit-“Rather than working dramatically less, societies consumed dramatically more.”

They end by reminding us:

It is also worth recalling that over the past century, successive waves of technological change have not produced runaway exponential growth, nor have they rendered labor obsolete. Instead, they have been just sufficient to keep long-term trend growth in advanced economies near 2%. Today’s secular forces of ageing populations, climate change and deglobalization exert downward pressure on potential growth and productivity, perhaps AI is just enough to offset these headwinds.

Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco’s piece (An Alternate View Of The Post-AI Labor Market), like Citadel’s, is a more optimistic take than Citrini’s article. Bianco approaches the rebuttal from a different angle than Citadel — the nature of business itself.

Bianco writes, “At its core, every business exists to solve a human problem,” calling Citrini’s fatal flaw “the assumption that humanity has a finite number of problems.”

Bianco’s argument leans on Jevons Paradox: when technology makes something more efficient, demand for that thing tends to explode, rather than contract. If AI reduces the cost of drafting a lawsuit to near zero, lawyers do not go home; instead, they file more lawsuits, creating new demand for legal defense and judges.

Bianco also makes a useful distinction between automating parts of a job. He uses GPS as an example. To wit:

When a job is disrupted, the outcome depends entirely on which part is automated. For 150 years, the hard part of driving a London taxi was passing the knowledge test. This involved memorizing 25,000 streets and nearly 20,000 landmarks. This took three or four years, often riding around London on a moped. This knowledge created a scarcity of qualified drivers, allowing them to command a premium wage. GPS automated this scarcity into a free app, flooding the market with new competitors (Uber/Bolt), which flattened wages. Technology took away the hard part of being a taxi driver, making the role less valuable.

Bianco’s “flipside” of less valuable London cab drivers is the story of accountants.  Computers eliminated the easy part of accounting, which in turn allowed accountants to provide “more valuable” financial advisory services along with accounting services.  

The outcome on the labor market depends on whether AI automates the scarce, high-judgment part of a role or the repetitive overhead.

Bianco believes AI removes the easy, repetitive parts of knowledge work, making workers more valuable. This counters Citrini, who claims it does not matter which part gets automated — if it happens fast enough and at a large enough scale, the labor market cannot absorb the displacement, regardless of whether the remaining work is more interesting.

Bianco closes with what he considers the most critical variable — the speed of transition. He introduces us to a historical parallel, the Engel Pause of the Industrial Revolution.

The Engels Pause: Where Everyone Agrees

The Engels Pause, named after Friedrich Engels, co-author of The Communist Manifesto, describes a harsh fifty-year period from 1790 to 1840. During the Industrial Revolution, this interval was marked by significant job losses that were not immediately offset by new employment. According to Bianco:

That gap between job destruction and job creation sparked a massive collective pushback against capitalism that the world came to know as Communism. Karl Marx directly observed this dangerous dynamic, writing that when an instrument of labor takes the form of a machine, it immediately becomes a competitor of the worker himself.

Citrini’s scenario is, at its core, a modern Engels Pause playing out again, but much more quickly; thus, its immediate impact could be greater. Bianco and Citadel do not deny the transition risk; however, they seem to argue that the gap can be managed if the pace of adoption is measured and institutional responses are timely.

The three authors implicitly agree that if job destruction outpaces job creation for long enough, the political and social consequences could be severe, despite improvements in productivity and corporate profits.

Summary

Technological revolutions have consistently created more jobs than they destroyed. While that statement is 100% true, we must caveat it by describing the transition with the word “EVENTUALLY.” If the AI transition is unbalanced, the negative economic, social, and political ramifications become more worrisome.

From our perspective, the Citrini 2028 scenario is a tail risk and not a base case. That said, we certainly don’t turn a blind eye to their opinion.

To assess the ongoing labor market transition, we will closely monitor economic indicators, including white-collar job openings, real wage growth in knowledge industries, and consumer spending patterns among higher-income households. If those metrics deteriorate simultaneously, the feedback loops Citrini describes could be a force to reckon with.

The canary, Citrini notes, is still alive, but we need to watch it closely.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 08:05

Western Intel Says Russia Preparing Kamikaze Drone Shipment To Iran

Zero Hedge -

Western Intel Says Russia Preparing Kamikaze Drone Shipment To Iran

A senior Western official told Financial Times reporters that new intelligence indicates Moscow is preparing to ship a batch of kamikaze drones to Iran as part of a broader support package, with the US-Iran conflict nearing the one-month mark.

When asked about the drone shipment, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told FT reporters, "There are a lot of fakes going around right now. One thing is true: we are continuing our dialogue with the Iranian leadership."

One thing is certain: Iranian forces have launched what reports estimate to be as many as 3,000 drones at US air bases, energy infrastructure, tankers, and neighboring Gulf states that coordinate with US and allied forces.

FT's report suggests that Iran may need additional drone supplies after an overnight update from Operation Epic Fury, US Central Command Chief Admiral Brad Cooper said Wednesday that US forces had struck their 10,000th target.

"Together, we have struck thousands more, clearly demonstrating that we're stronger together," Cooper said.

Cooper said US forces have severely degraded Iran's missile capabilities and heavily bombarded its missile, drone, and naval production sites. He added that Iran's drone and missile launch rates have collapsed by 90%, and that two-thirds of its military-industrial base has been destroyed or heavily damaged.

Another Western security official told FT that the type of Russian drones in this month's upcoming shipment has yet to be determined. The official said Moscow would likely deliver Geran-2 drones, which are basically copycats of the Iranian-designed Shahed-136.

Geran-2 drones 

Antonio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said of the Iranians, "They don't need more drones. They need better drones. They are after the more advanced capabilities."

Nicole Grajewski, a professor at Sciences Po University in Paris who focuses on Russia and Iran, noted, "The Russians dramatically improved the Shaheds, including modifications to the engines, navigation, and anti-jamming capabilities. So these systems are already more advanced than the ones Iran was producing domestically."

Grajewski warned that any new batch of Russian-made drones shipped to Iran could significantly improve the effectiveness of Iranian drone strikes.

Recall that our supply chain report on a crashed Iranian drone found a Russian guidance chip with Western parts in the early days of the conflict. Also, China appears to be making low-cost kamikaze drones for the war (read the report). 

*  *  * Superb Craftsmanship 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 07:45

Saudis Bypass Hormuz As Oil Exports From Yanbu Surge Toward 5 Million Target

Zero Hedge -

Saudis Bypass Hormuz As Oil Exports From Yanbu Surge Toward 5 Million Target

One week ago, when fears that the Strait of Hormuz blockade would mean a permanent collapse in oil supply (we have since seen that Iran is allowing "friendly" ships to cross the strait, especially if they grease the toll-keeper with $2 million per crossing) hit a fever pitch and pushed the price of Brent to $120, we said that "Saudi Arabia Has Already Revived More Than Half Its Oil Exports Via Hormuz Bypass."  

With Iran blocking Saudi ships from cross Hormuz for the time being, the Kingdom had drastically ramped up its oil exports to more than half of normal levels despite the disruptions from the Iran war, a successful sign for the kingdom’s ambitious contingency plan to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. To do this, Saudi Arabia has ramped up crude shipments from Yanbu export terminals on the Red Sea coast as it diverted supplies away from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz via the East-West pipeline.

Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, is one of only two countries in the region that can divert significant amounts of oil to bypass Hormuz, providing a crucial lifeline for supply. And since the start of the war, the Saudis had been rerouting oil through the 1,200 kilometer (746 mile) East-West pipeline to the western port of Yanbu. At the same time, it’s quickly amassed a huge armada of tankers that have streamed toward the Red Sea to load the oil and are now piling up around the port. 

Fast forward to today when Bloomberg reported that Riyadh now aims to boost export shipments from its Red Sea ports to 5 million barrels a day, a target within reach. The East-West pipeline, linking the Abqaiq processing hub to Yanbu, has a nominal capacity of 7 million barrels a day. But 2 million of those are required to supply refineries in Riyadh and on the Red Sea coast at Yanbu and Jizan, near the Yemen border, as well as power generation and desalination plants.

Crude shipments for export from the Yanbu South and Yanbu North terminals averaged 4.4 million barrels a day in the five days to Tuesday, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Flows through Yanbu have been rising steadily after the kingdom moved quickly to pump crude through the 746-mile conduit to the Red Sea.

Remarkably, the kingdom’s rerouting efforts have seen it double crude exports from Yanbu in just over two weeks. Even so, the diversions will only be enough to offset about half the lost Persian Gulf shipments this month. Even at target levels, Yanbu exports would still leave Saudi Arabia’s crude exports roughly 2 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, which however is a far cry from some of the worst case scenarios contemplated just days ago. 

According to Bloomberg calculations, there are about 56 million barrels of Saudi crude held on tankers that are stuck in the Gulf. Those cargoes loaded in late February and early March, but have been unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz to the open seas.

At least 40 oil tankers, most of them very large and capable of hauling about 2 million barrels of crude each, are now anchored near Yanbu waiting to take on cargoes, the tracking data show. 

Additionally, several ships stopped transmitting automated position signals in the Arabian Sea while en route to the Saudi port and may not reappear on tracking systems until they are well clear of the region. This could result in upward revisions to export figures.

Tankers that have loaded since the diversions began have mostly headed to Asia, with shipments to China and India dominating the flow. Cargoes are also bound for South Korea, Pakistan and Thailand. Customers in Japan have been supplied from storage tanks on the island of Okinawa, where the Saudi national oil company Aramco leases storage tanks that can hold 8.2 million barrels of crude.

In the early days of the conflict, shipments from Yanbu mostly went north to the Sumed pipeline that crosses Egypt to bypass the Suez Canal. Saudi Arabia typically loads crude for its customers in Europe and along the east coast of North America from a terminal at Sidi Kerir on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 07:25

The 'Blame Game' In Private Credit Begins

Zero Hedge -

The 'Blame Game' In Private Credit Begins

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

This morning I warned (again) this wasn’t a normal market in private credit. It was a liquidity event. And today it’s becoming something else too.

According to the Financial Times, the SEC is now questioning whether Egan-Jones, a small but deeply embedded credit rating agency in private credit, can “consistently produce credit ratings with integrity.” That’s not a routine inquiry. That’s the regulator openly wondering whether one of the key cogs in the machine was ever doing its job properly in the first place. Think S&P during The Big Short…

 

And the timing is almost too perfect.

 

Because just as gates go up, withdrawals get capped, and investors start asking for their money back, the conversation is shifting from “everything is fine” to “who signed off on this?”

That shift matters just as much as the redemptions.

For years, private credit sold stability. It worked because nobody had to test it. As long as money kept coming in and nobody needed to get out all at once, the system held together. You know, kinda like Madoff.

Now people are trying to get out, and suddenly the inputs behind those reassuring return streams — the marks, the models, the ratings — don’t look quite as solid. So naturally, we arrive at the part of the cycle where everyone starts looking around the room for someone else to blame.

Egan-Jones is an easy place to start. For years, it has faced recurring regulatory scrutiny, primarily from the U.S. SEC, over conflicts of interest, disclosure practices, and internal controls tied to its business model. The most significant action came in 2012, when the SEC charged the firm with misrepresenting its expertise in rating asset-backed securities, resulting in fines and a temporary suspension from rating certain structured products. Ongoing concerns have centered on compliance systems, documentation, and transparency, highlighting tensions between its independent approach and NRSRO regulatory standards.

 

A small shop with a big footprint, issuing thousands of ratings on private loans that insurers rely on for capital treatment. If those ratings are even slightly generous, or just structurally flawed, then the implications stretch far beyond one firm. It raises the uncomfortable possibility that risk across the system wasn’t just misunderstood, but conveniently packaged to look safer than it was. Again, the analogues to the housing crisis are easy to identify.

 

And this idea takes hold, it doesn’t stay contained. Managers distance themselves. Investors get louder. Regulators, even reluctant ones, start asking questions they would have preferred not to ask.

Which makes this even more interesting, because this SEC has hardly been spoiling for a fight. In fact, just yesterday news broke that the acting head of enforcement, effectively the agency’s top cop, is stepping down after reportedly pushing for more aggressive action than leadership wanted.

So if this group is starting to publicly question the integrity of ratings in private credit, it’s probably not because they woke up feeling ambitious. It’s because the pressure is getting hard to ignore.

That’s how these things usually go. Not with a bang, but with a slow, reluctant acknowledgment that something underneath the surface isn’t right. Kicking the can down the road continues literally as long as it’s humanly possible.

And now private credit is still a liquidity event, but it’s evolving into a credibility event at the same time. As the blame starts getting handed out, don’t be surprised if a few more “previously respected” pillars of the private credit boom suddenly look a lot less sturdy. The blame game is just getting started and there could be plenty more of it to go around in coming weeks.

Tracking the private credit meltdown:

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page hereThis post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 07:20

10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning train WFH reads:

• Traders Placed $580mn in Oil Bets Ahead of Donald Trump’s Social Media Post on Iran Talks: Someone placed enormous oil bets right before Trump’s Iran post moved the market. Coincidence is one explanation, but not the most obvious one. (Financial Times)

Maybe Turning War Into a Casino Was a Bad Idea? A disturbing new low in the Polymarket era (The Atlantic) see also Prediction Markets Promised Better Information. Instead They’re Creating Powerful Incentives to Corrupt Information. (TechDirt)

• Millions of Americans May Be Owed a Tax Refund from COVID. How to Get It.: Turns out a lot of people never claimed pandemic-era tax credits. If you’re one of them, there’s still time—but the clock is ticking. (USA Today)

See which jobs are most threatened by AI and who may be able to adapt: It’s the most urgent question about artificial intelligence — and one of the hardest to answer. (Washington Post)

The Accidental Moat-Killer: How a Mission to Accelerate Cancer Research via Idle Devices Is Now Upending AI’s Inference Economics (Super Genius Chronicles)

How the Iran Conflict Is Widening, in Maps: So far the conflagration has hit more than a dozen other countries, eight bases with a U.S. presence and a number of commercial ships (Wall Street Journal)

Afroman Wins Lawsuit Filed By The Cops Who Raided His Home: After police stormed the rapper’s Ohio home, he turned the experience into an album and set of videos. Claiming defamation and invasion of privacy, seven deputies from the raid sued. (Vanity Fair)

• Iran Built a Vast Camera Network to Control Dissent. Israel Turned It Into a Targeting Tool: Iran’s domestic surveillance infrastructure—built to monitor its own citizens—was reportedly co-opted by Israeli intelligence for military targeting. Orwellian doesn’t begin to cover it. (Yahoo)

A Billionaire, a Scientist, and a Secret in the Florida Everglades: A yearslong battle between a celebrated hydrologist and a respected environmental juggernaut led to accusations about political motivations and stealing trade secrets (Rolling Stone)

• Remembering Robert Mueller: A reflection on the man who ran the most consequential investigation of the Trump era, and what his legacy looks like now that the rule of law is under renewed assault. (Doomsday Scenario)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Judd Kessler, the Howard Marks Endowed Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The winner of the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize,he is the author of is Lucky by Design The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want.

 

Traders placed $580mn in oil bets ahead of Donald Trump’s social media post on Iran talks

Source: Financial Times

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Net Zero Activists Stumped By Shock New Evidence Showing No Link Between CO2 & Temperature Over Last Three Million Years

Zero Hedge -

Net Zero Activists Stumped By Shock New Evidence Showing No Link Between CO2 & Temperature Over Last Three Million Years

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

The climate science world (‘settled’ division) is in shock following the discovery in ancient ice cores that levels of carbon dioxide remained stable as the world plunged into an ice age around 2.7 million years ago. Levels of CO2 at around 250 parts per million (ppm) were said to be lower than often assumed with just a 20 ppm movement recorded for the following near three million-year period. In addition, no changes in methane levels were seen in the entire period. Massive decreases in temperature with occasional interglacial rises appear to have occurred without troubling ‘greenhouse’ gas levels, and this revelation has caused near panic in activist circles.

The assumed level three million years ago of CO2 was around 400 ppm, a convenient mark that has been used to explain the subsequent ice age and a drop to 250 ppm. Due to the recently published paper, this explanation has become more problematic and natural climate variation is correctly noted to have occurred with the temperature changes. Alas, similar explanations are mostly ignored in discussing today’s climate changes in the interests of promoting the Net Zero fantasy. Some cling desperately to a dominant CO2 role, including one of the authors of the findings published in Nature. The co-author states that the results suggest even greater climate sensitivity to the warming effect of CO2. In short, there is a great deal of applying the laws of physics and chemistry to one era, but failing to extend the same courtesy to another.

The title of the paper, produced by 17 America-based scientists, was enough to set alarm bells ringing in the ‘settled’ science, Net Zero-obsessed community: ‘Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past three million years.’related paper examining ocean heat content derived from the ice core record was also published. Carrie Lear, Professor of Past Climates and Earth System Changes at Cardiff University, claimed that the papers “don’t rewrite the role of CO2, they underline how sensitive the climate system is… that is why today’s rapid  CO2 rise is so alarming”.

Ah, yes. Even if CO2 movements are minimal, probably within a margin of potential error, they are still responsible for large variations in temperature. The laws of climate science are ‘settled’ – if the trace atmospheric gas CO2 is rising, falling or generally stable, it is almost wholly responsible for large movements in global temperature. Under this rather shaky assumption, humans must stop burning hydrocarbons and return to a neo-Malthusian pre-industrial age.

Study lead author Julia Marks-Peterson noted: “We definitely were a bit surprised. If correct, the findings may suggest that even small changes in greenhouse gas levels could trigger major shifts in climate.” That’s a little bit of a scary thought, she added, possibly with an eye on future grant funding. “May suggest” is doing a lot of the work here, and it may also be suggested that more plausible opinions are available.

Quoted in New Scientist magazine, Tim Naish, Professor of Earth Science at Victoria University in New Zealand, said it was “way too early to thrown the baby out with the bathwater”. Perish the thought that baby should be given its marching orders, ending a science-lite 40-year demonisation of CO2 and related promotion of a hard-Left Net Zero dream.

The latest Nature-published research gives a snapshot from ancient Antarctica ‘blue’ ice drilled in the Allan Hills area. It looks back further in time past the usual 800,000 ice core records. The key finding is that over the last three million years, when sea levels fell and ice periods intensified, the level of the main ‘greenhouse’ gases remained remarkably stable. For the first time, the work has pushed the direct gas measurements back into the late Pliocene era. Over the last three million years moving into the Pleistocene, global temperatures showed a long-term cooling trend of several degrees Celsius, interrupted by increasingly large interglacial oscillations. Interglacial temperature swings, as in the current Holocene, often see temperatures rise by 5°C and more.

Critics seeking to downplay ice core evidence often suggest it is too imprecise to provide a wholly accurate record of gas levels and temperature. But it is accurate enough to give a broad cyclical insight. It remains the source of some of the best data we have on the past climate. It is undoubtedly more accurate than most proxy evidence from millions of years ago. But whatever the evidence used, it is hard to detect any obvious and continuous link between CO2 and temperature across the entire geological record going back 600 million years to the start of abundant life on Earth. Certainly none to justify the political notion that humans control the climate thermostat by burning hydrocarbons.

In fact the evidence is so slim that Les Hatton, Emeritus Professor in Computer Science at Kingston University, was recently able to determine from ice core records that 100-year rises of 1.1°C in the current interglacial, which started 20,000 years ago, have occurred in one in six centuries. Going back 150,000 years, the frequency was around one in six to one in 20 centuries. None of these findings suggest that current warming is either unusual or primarily caused by human activity. Needless to say, none of these findings trouble the headline writers in narrative-addicted mainstream media.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 06:30

Hungary To Halt Gas Deliveries To Ukraine Over Its Energy 'Blackmail': Orban

Zero Hedge -

Hungary To Halt Gas Deliveries To Ukraine Over Its Energy 'Blackmail': Orban

Hungary is moving to choke off gas flows to Ukraine, escalating an energy standoff after Kiev halted Russian oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban in a fresh social media video address reiterated that Ukraine has blocked the Soviet-era route for a month, and he newly warned: "As long as Ukraine does not provide oil, it will not receive gas from Hungary," according to a translation.

via Reuters

Orban added that diverted supplies will be stockpiled domestically, filling up the country's own reserves, arguing the move is justified as Ukraine "is also attacking the southern gas pipeline that supplies Hungary," referring to the TurkStream corridor.

Framing the dispute as an energy security battle, Orban declared: "We will defend Hungary’s energy security, the protected petrol price, and the reduced gas prices" - adding Hungary has so far "successfully defend against Ukrainian blackmail."

Orbán further called the Russian oil stoppage "Ukrainian blackmail". According to more from The Associated Press:

There was no immediate comment from Kyiv and a Hungarian government spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment by The Associated Press.

Ukraine imports a major portion of its gas needs through Hungary, amounting to around 45% of all gas imports last year, according to Ukrainian energy consultancy EXPRO. That number dropped to 38% by January.

This comes amid inter-EU turmoil and growing Brussels distrust of and anger toward Budapest:

The EU is limiting the flow of confidential material to Hungary and leaders are meeting in smaller groups — as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of long-standing suspicions Viktor Orbán’s government is sharing information with Russia.

But there will not be any formal EU response to a fresh set of allegations because of the possible impact on the Hungarian election on April 12, according to five European diplomats and officials who told POLITICO they were concerned about the risk of Budapest leaking sensitive information to the Kremlin.

Last week Orban had made clear this week that Hungary will block all EU summit decisions in Ukraine's favor until oil Russian flows resume.

"We would like to get the oil, which is ours, from the Ukrainians, which is now blocked by the Ukrainians, I did not support any kind of decision here, which is in favor of Ukraine ... [as long as] the Hungarians are not able to get the oil which belong to us," Orbán stated.

Orban has already blocked a proposed €90 billion ($103 billion) loan for Ukraine as well as efforts to slap new sanctions on Moscow, despite the pleadings, pressure, and interventions from other EU leaders.

"I will never support any kind of decision here which is in favor of Ukraine," Orbán made clear at an EU meeting Thursday. "The Hungarian position is very simple. We are ready to support Ukraine when we get our oil, which is blocked by them," Orbán underscored further.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 05:45

The US Shows A Way Out Of Germany's Energy Trap

Zero Hedge -

The US Shows A Way Out Of Germany's Energy Trap

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Big developments are underway in Tennessee and Alabama. Over the next five years, the joint Japanese-American project will bring several so-called small modular reactors (SMRs) of the BWRX-300 type online. Almost one percent of U.S. electricity production—slightly more than three gigawatts—will be added to the existing energy mix by reactors designed by Hitachi and GE Vernova.

A caveat for purists of market economics: this is a hybrid project. While the majority is privately financed, export support from Japan as well as offtake guarantees and credit facilities accounting for roughly one percent of the total volume come from the U.S.

Overall, this project represents an investment of $40 billion. It joins a number of major initiatives currently being driven largely by the private sector in the U.S. Major platform operators and tech giants—Google, Meta, and Microsoft—are deeply involved in building new nuclear capacities. This disproves, above all, the claims of most German ideologues who insist that nuclear power has no future worldwide.

The fog has lifted. The truth is indisputably on the table. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz completes the evidence that Germany’s energy transition has not only failed but has destroyed hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of euros. Once the work of the eco-socialists is complete, we must conclude, more than a year’s worth of economic output may have gone up in smoke. This is economic substance and the guarantee of our prosperity. It is a reminder that the societal damage of this policy far exceeds what GDP figures alone can convey.

In the wake of this realization—now felt in everyone’s wallet—several fatal insights emerge, describing the current state of the Federal Republic. First is the successful narrowing of public discourse to Merkel’s principle of “no alternatives.” Like a pyramid scheme set from the top, the issue of CO2-driven climate change dominated not only politics. State-aligned media and corporations closely tied to the government played along, submitted to the rules, and positioned themselves at the forefront of executing this new moral framework.

After the Fukushima accident, Germany’s nuclear phase-out was sealed: too dangerous, not future-oriented. The future would lie in energy forms that, according to the green agitprop department, sent no bills. Nearly all politicians joined this intellectual blackout, enacting a monogenetic correction of party DNA across the spectrum, which now sits in front of the “firewall.”

The narrative frame was set, deeply embedded into public consciousness by the omnipresent NGO influence. A chain of guilt linked every action to a supposedly burning planet. It helped install subsidy and redistribution mechanisms and drowned even the faintest critique of the grand looting in a mixture of climate apocalypticism, moral sauce, and Thunberg-style infantilism.

That this looting continues unabated through the productive sectors of our society, and even accelerates, speaks volumes about the state of our society. Political apathy among voters combines with extraordinary arrogance and ideological stupidity in the highest ranks of this catastrophic regime.

Alongside intermittent green energy, a megastructure of new backup gas plants is to be built. Authorities speak of up to 50 such “backstops” to prevent the country from literally collapsing into social chaos during a dark doldrums period.

The statistics are indisputable. Since 2004, electricity production in China has increased by over 330 percent; in the U.S., roughly 11 percent. Germany, however, has lost 13 percent of its electricity production since its peak year 2021 and is now a net importer. Prosperity derives from energy production. Any self-imposed restrictions at this point lead society down the path of impoverishment. A historical and economic lesson, apparently never contemplated in union seminars or green think tanks. Meanwhile, in the circles of degrowth enthusiasts, rationality and bourgeois values trigger an immune-like resistance similar to the effect of advanced humanistic education.

In the U.S., President Donald Trump set in motion a shift back in 2016, briefly interrupted by the Biden administration: away from the European model of artificially constrained energy production and toward a deregulated market. Trump’s slogan “Drill, Baby, Drill” benefits the United States as a net exporter of oil and gas in the current crisis. Across the Atlantic, it is understood that autonomous control over energy capacities translates seamlessly into geopolitical leverage. The U.S. seeks strong access to energy markets to maneuver more effectively against China, for example, in the area of rare earth elements.

The emerging U.S. energy power structure, controlling Venezuelan oil, soon the Strait of Hormuz, and fostering closer ties with Arab energy states, is likely to consolidate America’s dominant position for the foreseeable future.

While Germany sheds crocodile tears over shifting geopolitics and remains frozen watching events in the Strait of Hormuz, one must ask: what is to be made of a chancellor who, despite the failed energy transition, ostentatiously rejects a return to nuclear power? Merz embodies with full force the destructive spirit of ideological blindness, too often mingled with foolish power-seeking in Berlin.

Or will the Social Democrats continue to suffice to form another left-ecologist coalition and carry Merkel’s globalist project into the future?

Germany gives the impression of a stagnant pond, where sedated frogs have grown accustomed to the stench of decay. The fresh stream flowing past them is unseen—or unwelcome.

Even so, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has finally noticed, years late, that something is moving in the nuclear sector.

Tactically following Brussels’ handbook, she announced support for existing and planned nuclear projects across the EU. Whether in France, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, or even Italy, where further nuclear investment is under consideration—the political dam is broken. From nuclear investment, we can gauge Europeans’ efforts to preserve national sovereignty against Brussels’ green transformation machine.

It is obvious: technological progress will not stop even European utopians in Brussels.

To counteract the erosion of her influence, von der Leyen offered a “fund” of €200 million—a joke against the backdrop of hundreds of billions burned in the green crony economy. Yet she seeks to publicly position herself at the head of a caravan long already in motion. It is a display of power, not real politics, but at least a form of indirect acknowledgment that ideological, irrational policies have pushed the old continent deep into an economic dead end.

The entry into modern forms of nuclear power, driven by free markets, backed by reintegration of cheap Russian gas to buy time, would shatter the walls of the one-way street. Yet Degrowth Chancellor Friedrich Merz shows no interest in this path.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 05:00

The One Market Where Meta's New AI Glasses Can't Be Sold

Zero Hedge -

The One Market Where Meta's New AI Glasses Can't Be Sold

Meta Platforms' new AI Ray-Ban smart glasses with a built-in display are facing three major roadblocks in the European Union, where battery rules, AI regulations, and supply constraints have derailed plans to roll out the glasses across the continent.

Bloomberg spoke with people familiar with the new AI glasses, an upgrade over the previous model, which lacked built-in optics, and warned that Meta is attempting to launch the glasses in the EU, but its manufacturing partner, EssilorLuxottica SA, will not be able to secure enough supply to support the rollout.

Compounding EssilorLuxottica's supply woes, the people warned that the delayed EU launch is also due to regulations governing AI features and batteries.

The big obstacle on the battery front is that one EU requirement mandates that devices sold on the continent must have removable batteries by 2027, which creates big design challenges for compact wearables like these glasses, as well as headlines and other similar devices.

Meta is reportedly pushing for an exemption with Brussels, arguing the rule would hurt not just glasses but other wearables across the consumer electronics market. 

Making matters worse for Meta, EU rules would also limit some of the AI functions that are key to the glasses, making a stripped-down launch very unattractive to consumers. 

EssilorLuxottica's supply woes are understandable, but Brussels's overregulation of nearly everything, including AI and batteries, shows how elected and unelected bureaucrats can slow or kill innovation.

Andrew Puzder, the US ambassador to the European Union, told an audience at an event earlier this week that the glasses will not be available in the region.

"Where is the one place in the world that you can't sell these glasses? The European Union. Why? Because the battery isn't removable," Puzder said.

Earlier this year, we cited Goldman analyst Jerry Shen's report on how the mass adoption cycle for AI glasses is just ahead, outlining the full supply chain of companies that make every component of these glasses (read here and here).

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 04:15

"Lord, What Fools These Mortals Be!" Shakespeare's Birthplace To Be "Decolonized"

Zero Hedge -

"Lord, What Fools These Mortals Be!" Shakespeare's Birthplace To Be "Decolonized"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In Hamlet, William Shakespeare famously wrote, “To thine own self be true.”

The problem is when others want to present a different “truth” long after you are gone.

Shakespeare is under an unrelenting attack in the United Kingdom from trigger warnings to censoring his prose.

Now, Shakespeare’s Birthplace Trust has announced that it will “de-colonise” the Bard.

In the name of creating “a more inclusive museum experience,” the Trust is moving away from Western perspectives to avoid the dangers of “white supremacy.”

A prior research project between the trust and Dr Helen Hopkins at the University of Birmingham raised concerns over just praising the writer. 

Even recognizing Shakespeare’s genius “benefits the ideology of white European supremacy.”

The new push at the Trust follows The Globe Theatre’s previous move to “decolonise” Shakespeare’s famous plays.

Again, while many of us denounce this type of revisionism, it appeals to this community of cultural overlords.

It is personally advancing for these academics and experts to seek to change or cancel such works.

The same voices are being heard in the United States. As we previously discussed, in a column in the School Library Journal, Minnesota librarian and journalist Amanda MacGregor questioned why teachers were even still exposing their students to this harmful influence: “Shakespeare’s works are full of problematic, outdated ideas, with plenty of misogyny, racism, homophobia, classism, anti-Semitism and misogynoir.”

Lorena German, National Council of Teachers of English Anti-Racism Committee chair and a co-founder of the Disrupt Texts forum, insisted “everything about the fact that he was a man of his time is problematic about his plays. We cannot teach Shakespeare responsibly and not disrupt the ways people are characterized and developed.”

It is time for the dwindling population of sane Brits to step forward and fight for their culture and heritage. These advocates have used academia and the media to attack the foundations of British culture. It is not enough to foster diversity in other areas, they must change and reframe how historical figures and works are presented.

They recognize this as a culture war, but have met little resistance. It is time, as the Bard himself wrote, to “Cry havoc! and let slip the dogs of war.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 03:30

Danish PM Resigns After Disastrous Election Losses For Social Democrats

Zero Hedge -

Danish PM Resigns After Disastrous Election Losses For Social Democrats

When challenging progressives to give an example of a socialized welfare state that actually works, they will invariably bring up Denmark with its extensive public subsidy programs.  However, the Danish system only functions when the population is small and generally homogeneous (mostly European).  In the past decade, the far-left Danish government under the Social Democrats has allowed over 1 million migrants to enter the country with a population of only 5 million.

The non-western population of Denmark is now 10% (or more), and a large percentage of this immigration is Muslim.  For such a tiny country, this kind of abrupt demographic change can be destabilizing.  The government was forced to respond with tougher restrictions on asylum and tighter controls on border. 

They have also instituted measures to prevent third world "no-go" zones - Third world immigrants have a tendency to pack into small areas and "tribalize" neighborhoods, making those areas into colonized enclaves.  The level of complaints from these people in the face of common sense immigration reforms is telling.  They see Europe as an open buffet; a place where they are entitled to feed until their buttons burst.  They cannot comprehend the idea that they could be limited in any way.     

 

The Danish population does not feel that the restrictions imposed by Social Democrats are enough.  They want deportations. Critics argue that the party only decided to take the immigration issue seriously after growing pressure from the public, along with the threat of election defeat.  Their actions were too little too late and the Social Democrats were pummeled in the latest election.

Danish Prime Minister ​Mette Frederiksen on ‌Wednesday submitted her government's ​resignation to ​the king after her ⁠three-party coalition ​suffered a crushing ​defeat in the general election, the royal ​palace said ​in a statement.  Parties are ‌set ⁠to launch potentially tough negotiations ​to ​determine ⁠whether the next ​government will ​be ⁠formed by Frederiksen or another ⁠party ​leader.

Socialist Democrats ran largely on geopolitical issues, including their handling of the Trump Administration's attempted purchase of Greenland (Denmark still maintains extensive control over Greenland's political and economic affairs). 

Frederiksen called the snap election in late February 2026 partly to capitalize on a temporary poll boost from her "firm stance" against Trump’s comments regarding Greenland. She also assumed her strong support for Ukraine and increased defense spending would win over the voters. However, her plan backfired.

Once the short campaign began, domestic “bread-and-butter” issues overwhelmingly dominated the agenda for the Social Democrats and most other parties.  They probably should have taken into account popular polls.  A recent Gallup poll in Denmark found that 54.5% of Danes are "completely in disagreement" or "in disagreement" with the statement that Islam is compatible with Danish values.

Only about 17.4% (3.3% "completely in agreement" + 14.1% "in agreement") think it is compatible, with the rest neutral or unsure.  The same survey showed 33.3% of Danes view Muslim immigrants as a threat to the country.  The right-wing "Blue-Bloc" gained 8 seats, bringing their total to 77.  The right-wing bloc's overall seat increase was driven mainly by the strong recovery of the Danish People's Party, reflecting continued voter concern over immigration, integration, and welfare sustainability.  

The core issue of the Blue Bloc is deportations of incompatible migrant groups; a subject which progressive parties traditionally refuse to address, but one that is becoming increasingly important for the success of any political party in the west.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Economy At The Point Of No Return

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Economy At The Point Of No Return

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

If anyone still needed a concrete figure to illustrate the dramatic state of the German economy, the Federal Statistical Office has now delivered it. The country’s investment ratio is negative, as depreciation exceeds nominal investments. Slowly but surely, the lights are going out.

Public discourse in Germany often sounds monocaudal and lacks complexity. Regardless of which social conflicts, administrative difficulties, or economic issues are being debated, for the majority of Germans, the state is not the cause of many problems but the ultimate solution.

A majority of Germans regularly fall for the statist-arguing snake-oil salesmen of the major party cartel beyond the firewall. The solutions that Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his junta of green, red, and dark-red socialists apply to every problem arising from the long-term recession are simple and resonate with voters – as we have seen recently in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.

To put it bluntly: more of the same medicine, more state intervention, more regulation, all intended to cover up the loss of control in the fundamental areas of our time – migration, the definition of our social system, and the organization of the economic framework.

It sounds so simple, socially warm, yet resentment-laden: higher taxes on the wealthy, squeezing heirs harder. Fundamentally, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are blamed for the energy crisis. Once these childish narratives are established, it’s eyes closed and full speed ahead on the path of green transformation, which has paralyzed the economy. Germany’s economy is running on wear and tear, consuming its own substance just to stay afloat.

This statist mindset, cultivated since reunification, comes at a cost. Economists call it “crowding-out,” which can be observed everywhere. Private-sector engagement is being crowded out by the NGO complex, green subsidy entrepreneurs, and all the incentive hunters who offer no real products or services on the market but are very adept at exploiting public funding.

Meanwhile, the real economy, the free private sector, is packing its bags. The widespread investment restraint of private industry spans all sectors. Whether in mechanical engineering, automotive, or chemicals, companies are retreating and increasingly investing abroad. In 2024, over €60 billion in net direct investment was withdrawn from Germany, down from €120 billion previously.

The data point released by the Federal Statistical Office on Tuesday is more than alarming. It proves that the situation has long passed the point of no return. This crisis is no longer avoidable. The statisticians in Wiesbaden reported the lowest net capital formation ratio since the chaos year of 1990: minus 0.23% of GDP. The figure shows that depreciation exceeded net investment – in other words, depreciation outstripped the renewal of the capital stock.

Germany’s infrastructure, building stock, and industrial capital are eroding over time and are not being maintained. It is clear that an economy unable to renew its capital stock in a market-conform, competitive way is falling behind. People are impoverishing, and society risks severe social upheavals.

It is baffling and evidence of deep-seated cognitive dissonance not to recognize the collapse of German industry for what it is: the dismantling of our prosperity. Since 2018, Germany’s industrial sector has lost about one-fifth of its production volume. This is not a normal recession – it is the fall as the table’s last-place finisher, potentially followed by the immediate insolvency of the entity.

Germany now survives on wear and tear, consuming its own substance while remaining silent to avoid confronting these threatening facts. The hospitality industry, a prime indicator of private household purchasing power, lost around four percent in real turnover last year and started this year at least two to three percent weaker. Households are holding on to their money.

The self-inflicted energy crisis, which now accelerates in public awareness through the Strait of Hormuz, has caused a shock. Yet it has evidently not been enough to produce political course corrections at the ballot box.

German statism has deeply embedded itself into the collective consciousness through the state education system, state-aligned media, and the constant barrage of green-socialist NGOs. This naive faith in the state is a deeply rooted, metapolitical anchor that cannot be easily uprooted.

In the Federal Republic, there is a real risk that society, in the coming years of crisis, will increasingly follow socialist charlatans. They present a painless therapy of simple wealth redistribution as a solution. It is as if a cancer patient, still with a chance of recovery, entrusted themselves to flower remedies, stubbornly refusing to confront the severity of the disease, its causes, and realistic treatment options.

Free media and truly independent academia are now called upon to counter this socio-political super-GAU – the return to complete socialist barbarism, which is becoming increasingly evident. Only a few media outlets, such as Tichys Einblick, are standing up against this decay.

The statist portion of commentary glorifies the nonsense fed into public discourse by pseudo-economists such as Marcel Fratscher of the German Institute for Economic Research. All of them, in one way or another, hang like puppets on the strings of state institutions and have no economic incentive to side with the libertarian renegades.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/26/2026 - 02:00

'Guard Your Mind': The Techno-Libertarian Manifesto

Zero Hedge -

'Guard Your Mind': The Techno-Libertarian Manifesto

Via zeptabot substack,

Introduction

The modern nation-state is not natural nor permanent. It’s a technological product of the industrial era’s logic of mass warfare, bureaucracy, and centralized taxation. That logic is breaking down. In a world of cyberspace, mobile capital, and digital commerce and geography, brute force lose much of their leverage. You cannot conquer the internet with tanks, nor can a government easily tax a truly digital wallet whose private keys are hidden in someone’s mind. The Information Revolution is a shift in the logic of power as fundamental as gunpowder was to medieval knighthood. Every institution built on yesterday’s logic of violence will either adapt or crumble. This was the original thesis of the 1997 book The Sovereign Individual (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). And in 2026—with the rise of China, the regional military conflicts now underway, and the polarization of politics both within nations and between them—that shift is no longer speculatory. It is existential.

What matters now is what kind of order will emerge from it. The battle is no longer between rival “-isms” competing for control of the same nation-state, but between two fundamentally different civilizational logics: an empowering future that facilitates progress and an authoritarian one that dooms humanity.

A civilization can survive poverty. It can survive corruption. It can survive decadence for a time. What it cannot survive indefinitely is the slow freezing of criticism, the politicization of truth, the administrative management of thought, and the suppression of the independent mind. If centralized authoritarian models become the dominant operating system of the twenty-first century, then the danger is that humanity becomes less capable of discovering what is true, building what is new, and expanding beyond its present limits. In other words, stagnation. And stagnation necessarily leads to extinction.

This manifesto therefore renews the sovereign individual thesis under harsher conditions. The survival argument is simple: decentralization is the only civilizational trajectory that does not end in extinction. The individual mandate follows. Do science. Build technology. Start or fund companies at the frontier—AI, DeFi, fintech, data science, space, neurotechnology, anything that compounds intelligence and autonomy.

For every unit of wealth created, disperse it: into offshore jurisdictions that compete for your presence rather than conscript you, and into cryptographic infrastructure that answers to mathematics rather than to ministers.

Sections I through IV establish the theory. Sections V through VIII show how to live it.

I. Progress Only Happens Where Criticism Is Free and Error Is Correctable

Human progress has a habitat.

Modern science became cumulative, self-correcting, and civilization-transforming within a moral and institutional ecology shaped by the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment: criticism over dogma, experiment over inherited authority, open dispute over enforced orthodoxy, and a growing recognition that no claim is final simply because it is backed by rank or power (Deutsch, 2011). What mattered was a method that can be stated plainly as: reality must answer, error must be corrigible, and no authority may permanently close inquiry.

Decentralization is the political expression of that humility. It begins from the recognition that no ruler, committee, ministry, or expert class knows enough to centrally design the future. Discovery is distributed. Knowledge is local before it is general. Progress emerges through criticism, variation, risk, and recombination, not through administrative command (Deutsch, 1997, 2011).

Where thought is free, error can be exposed. Where error can be exposed, knowledge can compound. Where knowledge compounds, civilization advances.

Where criticism becomes dangerous, speech is narrowed, capital is trapped, and individuals are reduced to manageable units inside a bureaucratic machine, the range of possible futures contracts. Centralization misallocates resources. It narrows the imagination.

II. Every Decisive Breakthrough Has Come From Free Civilizations First

The United States achieved the first controlled fusion experiment in history to produce more fusion energy than the laser energy used to drive it at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility in December 2022 (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2022).

Europe’s Joint European Torus then set a record of 69 megajoules in its final 2023 deuterium-tritium campaign, announced in 2024 (UK Atomic Energy Authority, 2024).

China has simultaneously pressed forward with its own fusion program. Its Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST)—built on a tokamak architecture first conceptualized by Soviet physicists Andrei Sakharov and Igor Tamm and further refined across Western laboratories—set a world plasma confinement record of 403 seconds in 2023, then broke it again with 1,066 seconds in January 2025 (Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2025). EAST itself is described by its own engineers as a testbed for ITER technologies. China is now constructing the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR), a demonstration-scale plant expected to break ground by the late 2020s, explicitly designed as the next step after ITER, the Western-led international megaproject under construction in France. China’s flagship fusion facility is, by its own characterization, an implementation vehicle for a scientific framework established elsewhere.

Each of China’s fusion milestones is a record in plasma confinement duration—engineering feats of operational endurance within a device architecture invented and theorized outside China. The NIF’s December 2022 result was a foundational physics threshold: the first time in history that a fusion experiment produced more energy than the laser energy used to initiate it. China has not attempted that category of result.

The modern West’s greatest contribution was the creation of environments in which invention could become self-sustaining.

The atomic bomb emerged from the Manhattan Project in the United States, culminating in the Trinity test on July 16, 1945.

The Soviet Union detonated its first atomic bomb in 1949—four years after Trinity. China followed in 1964, nineteen years behind.

The first full-scale thermonuclear device, Ivy Mike, was detonated by the United States on November 1, 1952. Russia followed on August 12, 1953. China on December 28, 1966.

The first practical transistor was invented at Bell Labs in New Jersey in December 1947.

The first programmable general-purpose electronic digital computer, ENIAC, was built in the United States during the Second World War and unveiled in 1946.

The Apple II in 1977 and the IBM PC in 1981—both products of the American free market—first transformed computing from a state and corporate instrument into a mass-market personal tool.

In quantum theory, David Deutsch, working in Britain, published the foundational paper on the universal quantum computer in 1985, establishing the modern theory of quantum computation.

The first cloud-accessible quantum processor was made online in 2016, and the first integrated commercial quantum system was unveiled in 2019, both by IBM in the United States.

China, on the other hand, launched the Micius quantum satellite in 2016 and achieved major quantum-communication and quantum-computational milestones by 2017, 2020, and 2021.

The record is consistent: authoritarian systems can mobilize labor, direct capital, and scale what already works with systematic, disciplined execution—but always within frameworks that open scientific civilization originated. As we can observe, “China is copying at terrifying speed everything the free world originates.” That strength is real. But it is downstream. What such systems cannot reliably reproduce is the civilizational ecology—tolerant of eccentricity, dissent, and unplanned combinations of ideas—from which those originals emerged. The decisive breakthroughs—first fission, first thermonuclear device, the transistor, the personal computer, net-energy fusion ignition—emerged first in civilizations that made criticism productive rather than obedient.

That inheritance can be lost. A civilization can live for a long time on imitation. But if every civilization becomes too centralized to permit genuine criticism, eventually there is nothing left to copy. When that happens, decline is inevitable, and eventually leads to extinction—as all resources available to the static world are exhausted.

III. The Free Market Is the Only System That Actually Discovers Solutions

Socialism mistakes compassion for intelligence and assumes that visible suffering is evidence that command must be superior to emergence.

The free market is superior because it is a discovery process. Prices encode information about supply and demand that no planner can fully aggregate. Profit and loss expose reality faster than administrative committees. Hayek’s Knowledge Problem overwhelms any centralized economic system: all actual knowledge is on the edges, in the hands of the people closest to the transaction. Decentralization harnesses that complexity; centralization will starve you to death.

Markets lift people out of poverty—by far the most effective mechanism in history for doing so. Even under totalitarian regimes, an incremental relaxation of state control over production and trade produces rapidly rising incomes.

William Nordhaus showed that innovators capture roughly two percent of the economic value created by their technology—the other ninety-eight percent flows to society as surplus. Technological innovation in a market system is inherently philanthropic. A static morality says: solve the suffering directly in front of you. A civilizational morality says: build the engines that make fewer people poor, sick, and trapped across generations.

Nassim Taleb’s framework reaches the same conclusion from a different direction. Decentralized systems grow on volatility, error, and disorder—they are antifragile. Centralized systems suppress volatility, accumulate hidden fragility, and eventually shatter. A market economy processes errors continuously through profit and loss, killing bad ideas cheaply and at small scale. A planned economy suppresses error signals until failures compound invisibly and collapse catastrophically. The Soviet collapse was a fragility event—the accumulated cost of suppressed error, finally clearing (Taleb, 2012). That is what a decentralized system does: it processes failure continuously and cheaply, so collapse never has to be total. The free market is that system.

IV. Humanity Is Doomed on One Planet—and a Multiplanetary Civilization Cannot Be Centrally Governed

Fact: Humanity is doomed unless it becomes multiplanetary.

Solve every resource problem. End every war. Cure every disease. Feed every child. The sun still expands into a red giant in roughly five billion years, incinerating the Earth and everything on it. No redistribution policy, no sustainability framework, no amount of earthly justice changes that sentence. The only exit from it is leaving. As Deutsch observed, our history, science, art, philosophy, and moral values are, from the cosmos’s vantage point, “tiny side effects of a supernova explosion a few billion years ago, which could be extinguished tomorrow by another such explosion”—unless intelligence spreads far enough to prevent it (Deutsch, 2011). Stephen Hawking stated the nearer-term version with characteristic bluntness: humanity has “no future if it doesn’t go into space” (Hawking, 2014, 2016).

The objection—how can anyone spend capital becoming multiplanetary when we have the poor still here in front of us—is a false dilemma. Injustice always exists. The decel doomers who make this argument often also believe humans on Earth will probably go extinct within a thousand years anyway—through war, environmental collapse, or some other catastrophe. There is no substantial difference between extinction in a thousand years and five billion due to the sun’s expansion. Either way, we have to deal with it. We need to be on our way to escape velocity.

Another fact: Space civilization is necessarily decentralized. NASA analyses show one-way communications delays to Mars can reach roughly 21 to 23 minutes, with further disruption and blackout periods (McBrayer et al., 2022; NASA, 2024a). That already makes management harder. The principle becomes far more severe as humanity moves outward.

Alpha Centauri is 4.3 light-years away—a round-trip exchange takes 8.6 years (NASA, 2018). Kepler-452b is 1,400 light-years away—a round-trip takes 2,800 years (NASA, 2015, 2025). Andromeda is 2.5 million light-years away—communication crosses out of politics and into geological time (NASA, 2024b).

A civilization spread across stars cannot be governed like one compressed onto a single planet. Delayed feedback, local scarcity, environmental hostility, and divergent adaptation all destroy the fantasy of centralized control. Multiplanetary humanity decentralizes by physics as astronomical distance enforces autonomy.

V. Accumulating and Dispersing Wealth Away From Predatory States Is a Moral Imperative

Wealth is stored optionality—the capacity to migrate, fund research, defend speech, exit failing systems, and act without pleading for permission. Davidson and Rees-Mogg predicted that individuals would “achieve increasing autonomy over territorial nationstates through market mechanisms” (1997). Mobile capital is the mechanism.

Davidson and Rees-Mogg warned in 1997 that as wealth became more mobile, states would turn against their most productive citizens with increasing desperation: “like an angry farmer, the state will no doubt take desperate measures at first to tether and hobble its escaping herd. It will employ covert and even violent means to restrict access to liberating technologies” (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). We are living that future right now.

In November 2020, the Chinese Government cancelled the Ant Group IPO overnight—what would have been the world’s largest, at a $37 billion valuation—after founder Jack Ma gave a speech mildly critical of financial regulators. Beijing’s regulatory crackdown that followed wiped more than a combined $1 trillion from China’s biggest tech companies. Alibaba was fined $2.8 billion; Didi, valued at $70 billion at its U.S. IPO, was forced to delist; the entrepreneurial business model that had driven China’s tech boom was, in the assessment of analysts, permanently extinguished. Ma himself disappeared from public view for months. The message was unambiguous: private wealth that grows too autonomous will be brought to heel. The state does not negotiate with capital it can still reach.

This is the coercive nature of the centralized nation-state in its full honesty. The accumulated capacity to relocate, fund research, exit failing institutions, and act without permission is precisely what Beijing’s model cannot tolerate.

We believe David Deutsch when he said that wealth is the set of all physical transformations that you are capable of bringing about. Accumulating that wealth and dispersing it into offshore jurisdictions and cryptographic cyberspace is therefore morally just. Every dollar removed from the reach of predatory institutions is a dollar withdrawn from the machine that kills the only process by which genuine knowledge grows. Left unchecked, it forecloses that growth. To starve that institution of capital is to fight for the survival of the species. Cryptographic infrastructure is the most powerful tool in this fight to date.

VI. Cryptography Is the Technical Instrument of Individual Sovereignty

Davidson and Rees-Mogg predicted in 1997 that cybermoney would become “the new money of the Information Age, replacing the paper money of Industrialism”—and that it would “substantially free you from the power of the state” (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). The mechanism they described was Hayek’s: competitive private currencies, freed from legal-tender requirements, would force issuers to preserve value or lose customers—eradicating inflation by market discipline alone. Physical offshore jurisdictions had long allowed the wealthy to escape predatory taxation. Cybermoney would complete what geography had only partially achieved: an economy with no territorial jurisdiction, where “cyberspace is the ultimate offshore jurisdiction” (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). The cows, as they put it, would have wings.

Bitcoin is that prediction realized.

Cryptocurrency altered a balance that had held for all of recorded history: for the first time, individuals could store value, communicate, and coordinate across borders in systems that do not require the permission of any institution to operate.

In the foreword to the 2020 reprint of The Sovereign Individual, Peter Thiel described the technology conflict of the Information Age as running on two poles: “Artificial Intelligence holds out the prospect of finally solving what economists call the ‘calculation problem’—AI could theoretically make it possible to centrally control an entire economy. It is no coincidence that AI is the favorite technology of the Communist Party of China. Strong cryptography, at the other pole, holds out the prospect of a decentralized and individualized world. If AI is communist, crypto is libertarian” (Thiel, 2020).

The reason Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Bitcoin, kept his identity unknown is integral to Bitcoin’s history: had the creator been identified, “our too powerful central government would probably do some very unpleasant things to that person” (Thiel). Bitcoin’s founding anonymity was a design principle. An act of decentralized, individual liberty from the start.

Bitcoin’s implementation has been far from clean. Short-sighted cash-grabbers have hijacked the category and turned swaths of it into speculation and outright fraud. Governments and major institutions have moved to integrate cryptocurrency into regulated platforms rather than displace them—BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accumulated over $91 billion in assets under management by 2025, making the world’s largest asset manager the second-largest known holder of Bitcoin, its ETF structure reintroducing the very centralized custody and intermediary dependence the protocol was designed to eliminate (Bitget Academy, 2025; TRM Labs, 2026). The subcultures that formed around crypto are often ideologically shallow, speculative, and corrosive to its founding purpose.

None of this refutes the underlying architecture. The potential of sovereign cybermoney remains infinitely worth pursuing because no better instrument for individual financial autonomy and exit optionality has been invented. The protocol itself is structurally resistant in ways its capture by institutions cannot undo. A Bitcoin transaction is a signed string of text. It can be transmitted by email, by radio, by any communications medium that exists. It does not require a Bitcoin node inside any particular jurisdiction. As one technical analysis put it: “a protocol cannot be blocked. Ports can be blocked but software quickly learns how to port-hop—see torrents for example. Impossible without shutting down all internet communications. If there’s a communications medium, there’s nothing stopping bitcoin blocks and transactions from being transferred over it” (Stack Exchange, n.d.). Gavin Andresen, one of Bitcoin’s earliest core developers, demonstrated the point at the MIT Bitcoin Expo by blinking a transaction in morse code. China cannot block Bitcoin. No government can. It can be built better, made to serve its true purpose more faithfully, and freed from the institutions that have tried to domesticate it. That is the work.

VII. Decentralization Is Not Inevitable—It Must Be Actively Fought For

Davidson and Rees-Mogg wrote in 1997 as if decentralization were a tide—inevitable, irresistible, beyond the capacity of any state to reverse. They were only partially correct. The Chinese Communist Party read the same trends and built a counter-architecture: a digital panopticon that captured the Information Age’s tools and turned them toward total surveillance and nationalist control. Populist movements across the democratic world are closing jurisdictional exits, weaponizing tax law, and criminalizing the financial privacy that sovereign individuals require. The technology arc bends toward decentralization. It can be bent back.

This is the existential update to the 1997 thesis. The sovereign individual is the force that determines which direction history moves. Centralization wins through atmosphere: caution, exhaustion, guilt, and managed decline. That outcome must be actively refused.

VIII. What You Must Do

Depending on your circumstances, each of the following points may or may not apply to you. The more you can check, the better.

  1. Obtain additional passports. Reside primarily in a country other than the one from which you hold your first passport. Keep the bulk of your money in a third jurisdiction—preferably a tax haven. Never leave your money in any jurisdiction that claims the right to conscript you or your descendants (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997).

  2. Travel widely. Select alternative residences in attractive locales where you will have right of entry in an emergency.

  3. Domicile your businesses offshore where possible. Structure corporations as virtual entities—“bundles of contracting relations without any material reality” held through offshore trusts—to minimize political surface area (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997).

  4. Hold sovereign assets. A meaningful share of wealth in Bitcoin or equivalent seizure-resistant, inflation-proof, borderless instruments—not as speculation, as infrastructure. Cybermoney is the offshore tax haven that fits in your mind. Aggressive governments will attempt to bar effective encryption and fail—just as the medieval Church failed to ban printing, the technology will retreat to wherever authority is weakest and resurface more subversively (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997).

  5. Avoid debt. Pursue savings with urgency. Structure compensation flexibly. “Debt should be avoided; savings and cost reductions should be pursued with greater urgency” as entitlement programs collapse and deflation accompanies the reordering of power (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). The sovereign individual does not depend on the system he is routing around.

  6. Get equity. Invest in, co-found, or build companies, as salary is becoming less stable and trustworthy. “Jobs will increasingly become tasks or piece work rather than positions within an organization” (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). Hold equity, not just a role.

  7. Play long-term, iterated games with long-term people. All returns in life—wealth, relationships, reputation—come from compound interest. Trust compounds. Knowledge compounds. The growing danger of crime and fraud, Davidson and Rees-Mogg observed, “will make morality and honor among associates more crucial and highly valued” (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). Pick people with high intelligence, high energy, and high integrity. Build relationships you can keep for decades.

  8. Guard your mind. The Techno-Optimist Manifesto names the disposition required: “free thought, free speech, and free inquiry” and “an absolute rejection of resentment” (Manifesto, n.d./uploaded text). Do not let institutional credentialism or the political management of information corrupt unimpaired reasoning. “Thinking about the end of the current system is taboo,” Davidson and Rees-Mogg wrote—“you must transcend conventional thinking and conventional information sources” (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997). Ideas are the primary form of wealth in the Information Age.

  9. Get out early. Those who recognize systemic collapse and reposition before the nationalist reaction hardens are consistently better placed than those who wait for social consensus. The window for frictionless departure narrows as the crisis deepens. “The dangers of a nationalist reaction to the crisis of the nationstate make it important not to underestimate the scope for tyranny,” Davidson and Rees-Mogg warned (Davidson & Rees-Mogg, 1997).

  10. Refuse the moral vocabulary of stagnation. Wealth creation is not extraction. Jurisdictional optimization is not evasion. Ambition is not greed. Privacy is not criminality. Building technology is not exploitation. These framings exist to keep productive individuals legible, taxable, and stationary. The Techno-Optimist Manifesto identifies the source: a “mass demoralization campaign” run under names like sustainability, de-growth, stakeholder capitalism, and the precautionary principle (Manifesto, n.d./uploaded text). Reject every version of it.

  11. Build foundational leverage. Skills that apply leverage to any domain: logic, computers, arithmetics, probability, statistics, and microeconomics—the tools that allow you to reason about systems, incentives, and price signals rather than just memorize facts. Add persuasion and communication, because selling—in the broadest sense of conveying ideas—is the other half of building. These are the foundations. Everything else compounds on top of them.

  12. Build, or invest in, the technologies that widen human agency. AI systems that decentralize intelligence rather than concentrate it. DeFi protocols that remove institutional gatekeepers from finance. Cryptographic infrastructure that makes individual sovereignty technically enforceable. Fintech that routes around the rent-extracting intermediaries of the old banking stack. Every product that empowers the individual at the expense of the administrative machine is a contribution to the civilizational project this manifesto describes.

  13. Build, or invest in, the technologies that extend human reach. Nuclear fusion—the only energy source capable of powering both a post-scarcity Earth and an interplanetary civilization. Neurotechnology that expands cognitive capacity and ultimately may permit the transport of mind beyond the biological substrate. Hibernation and long-duration life support systems that make deep space survivable. Cheaper launch, reusable propulsion, orbital manufacturing. These are the literal instruments of the transition from a single-planet species to a multiplanetary one. Andreessen’s challenge stands: “our forefathers built roads and trains, farms and factories, then the computer, the microchip, the smartphone”—the only way to honor that legacy is to build the next layer (Andreessen, 2020).

Every one of these imperatives serves the same end. The sovereign individual who holds seizure-resistant assets, operates transnationally, invests in the companies that widen human agency, and builds the frontier technologies is tending the decentralized ecology—of open inquiry, corrigible error, unimpeded conjecture, and free exchange—that David Deutsch identifies as the only habitat in which genuine progress has ever occurred. He is starving the institutions that would freeze that ecology. He is planting the seeds of a civilization capable of reaching the stars, rather than one that kills growth and shall live out its days in stagnation.

The stakes are high. It’s time to act.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 23:50

New Lord Of The Rings Movie To Be Written By...Stephen Colbert?

Zero Hedge -

New Lord Of The Rings Movie To Be Written By...Stephen Colbert?

There is perhaps nothing more revealing about the desperate state of Hollywood than its obsession with digging up old franchises in a futile race to capitalize on audeince nostalgia.  In fact, it has been widely understood in the film industry for the past decade that almost no project will be greenlit unless it is a reboot, remake or "re-imagining" of a previously popular story property.

The problem, which everyone except Hollywood executives understands, is that you cannot recapture the magic of older hit movies, especially when your stable of writing talent is populated by an army of left-wing, pill popping ideological lunatics with no moral standards to speak of.  These kinds of people are simply incapable of relating to the common moviegoer.

This dynamic has led Hollywood down a path of financial destruction, with dozens of big budget films bombing at the box office in the past year alone.  Some projects have lost hundreds of millions of dollars and the smell of napalm is heavy in the air. 

One disastrous reboot attempt that set Hollywood on the path of total defeat is Amazon's ludicrous Lord Of The Rings project, "The Rings Of Power".  A non-canonical adaptation of limited parts of The Silmarillion, the show turns Galadriel, the personification of the pure feminine, into a spitting, angry feminist girl-boss that slaughters orcs by the barrel.  The show's writing was saturated with sad approximations of Tolkien-style dialogue written by people with no life experience or wisdom.   

Tolkien was a historical linguistics professor who fought in some of the bloodiest battles of WWI.  His insight into mythology and the human condition was deep and compelling.  The idea that anyone in current-day Hollywood could hold a candle to him is absurd. 

The series was meant to exploit the pre-existing fanbase of the Peter Jackson trilogy.  Amazon execs bragged that the franchise was a sure thing, suggesting that the fans were a "captive audience" that would rush to consume whatever drivel Amazon produced.

It was also designed with the illusory left-wing "modern audience" in mind, and of course, that audience never showed up to watch.  Rings of Power is now considered a critical failure and a huge money-loser for Amazon.  But, one celebrity who jumped on the bandwagon early was leftist propagandist Stephen Colbert, a self proclaimed Lord of the Rings "superfan". 

Colbert was a primary promoter for the Rings Of Power series launch and at no point did he ever question the validity of the story or its major deviations from the spirit of the source material.  What better person to co-write the next installment of the Lord Of The Rings film series? 

 

New Line has recruited an aging Peter Jackson to helm a series of film spinoffs, but it's hard to say yet how much freedom his team will have in the production.  The idea to include Colbert could very well bury the effort before it begins.

The announcement is bizarre, given The Colbert Show's collapsing audience numbers and his dwindling popularity.  He is a largely hated figure in the world of entertainment and in politics.  But, the decision does make perfect sense if you consider the possibility that Hollywood's only goal at this point is to destroy every single beloved franchise of the past and give a big middle finger to fans. 

The Amazon series proved that LOTR audiences could not be suckered or controlled, so, instead, it appears the industry is bent on petty revenge instead.  The tentatively titled "The Lord of the Rings: Shadow of the Past" is set to be written by Colbert, Philippa Boyens and Peter McGee.  Colbert revealed that the film will be based on “Fogs on the Barrow-downs,” the eighth chapter of The Fellowship of the Ring  

The notion that a woke pariah and Big Pharma shill with no moral compass could ever write an adaptation of The Lord Of The Rings, a story based on the honor and inherent goodness in the hearts of men, is rather insulting.  But, maybe that's the point.    

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 23:00

Russia Launches Springtime Offensive On Ukraine, As "That Other War" Drags On

Zero Hedge -

Russia Launches Springtime Offensive On Ukraine, As "That Other War" Drags On

Just days after we reported that trilateral peace negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the Trump administration had been suspended -  likely indefinitely - thanks to Washington's escalating involvement in the Iran war, Reuters is now confirming the inevitable: Moscow is pressing ahead with a fresh springtime offensive while Kiev scrambles to hold the line.

As we reported before, from the collapse of talks in Geneva and Miami to Putin's envoy shuttling back for what turned out to be fruitless charades, the Iran war has not only sucked up U.S. attention and air-defense munitions Ukraine desperately needs, but has also juiced Russian oil revenues at the worst possible moment for Kremlin planners. 

According to the latest from Kiev, Ukraine's strategy now boils down to "building on recent tactical successes and battlefield innovations like mid-range strikes" to blunt the assault on the so-called Fortress Belt, the heavily fortified cluster of cities in Donetsk including Sloviansk (northern anchor), Pokrovsk, and Kostiantynivka. Russia, fresh off capturing nearly all of the key logistics hub at Pokrovsk this winter, has already launched a battalion-sized push northeast of Sloviansk and smaller probing attacks around the southern end of the belt. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Finnish analysts at Black Bird Group are calling it exactly what it is: Moscow creating conditions for a broader offensive now that the ground has thawed.

Sloviansk authorities just ordered the compulsory evacuation of children as Russian forces sit a mere 20 km away — a grim sign the "deteriorating security situation" is no longer hypothetical. Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov boasted last week that the offensive is "underway in all directions," explicitly naming Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka as targets. Over the past four days alone, Ukrainian General Staff data shows Russia conducted more than 600 assaults across the front, with the heaviest concentration (163) near Pokrovsk.

This is precisely the momentum we highlighted in our March 17 piece, "Russia Touts Capture Of A Dozen Ukrainian Settlements In Opening Weeks Of March," where Gerasimov himself confirmed 12 settlements "liberated" in just two weeks, with street fighting already deep inside Kostiantynivka.

Ukraine's Counter-Narrative: Drones, Starlink Sabotage, And "Metrics"

Kyiv isn't exactly waving the white flag. Officials point to modest territorial gains last month - around 400 sq km in Zaporizhzhia, the first net positive since summer 2024 - aided in no small part by Elon Musk's crackdown on Russian Starlink usage, which reportedly scrambled Moscow's comms. Ukraine's new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov (the former digital guru) is pushing a "technology-driven, metrics-focused" plan, claiming Ukrainian forces are now eliminating more Russian troops than Moscow can recruit.

New recruits of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attend a military training near a frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine March 21, 2026.

Analysts like Rob Lee at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and Vladyslav Urubkov of the Come Back Alive charity acknowledge Russia's manpower edge but argue improved Ukrainian drone integration and tactical assaults could cap Moscow's gains at a few hundred square kilometers per month. ISW, for its part, expects "some tactical gains" around the Fortress Belt in 2026, but no major breakthrough.

The Real Story: Manpower, Money, And Distraction

Reality check: Ukraine is still bleeding manpower, struggling to recruit enough bodies for the meat grinder, while its finances teeter after Hungary vetoed a €90 billion EU loan package this month. Russia, meanwhile, watches oil prices soar courtesy of the Iran war, boosting export revenues (earlier we reported that India purchased 60 million barrels of Russian oil courtesy of the recent unsanctioning by the Trump admin). And those U.S. air-defense stocks Ukraine relies on? Now being diverted to the Middle East theater.

President Zelensky himself admitted on Sunday that Russia is exploiting warmer weather to intensify operations, a far cry from the "we're winning" rhetoric that dominated Western media for years. Commanders on the ground describe the expected Russian playbook: multi-axis pressure to rupture Ukrainian formations at weak points, with armored pushes (now rarer thanks to drone dominance) signaling Moscow's desire to accelerate.

The "Peace" Theater Was Always a Sideshow

Recall our coverage of the endless cycle: Zelensky exploding under U.S. pressure in February ("no time for unsuccessful decisions"), Putin reportedly floating intel-sharing swaps tied to Ukraine aid, and European meddling that only prolonged the agony while Russian forces kept grinding forward.

The Iran conflict didn't just pause talks — it exposed the whole farce. Washington can't mediate while fighting on another front, Europe can't deliver the cash, and Kyiv can't hold the line forever against a Russia that has already captured thousands of square kilometers since 2025.

The grinding war of attrition continues. Fortress Belt under assault. Peace talks? Suspended, likely indefinitely, especially with the world's attention glued to that "other", far bigger war.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 22:35

Chevron Warns California Facing Historic Fuel Crisis As Diesel Hits Record $7

Zero Hedge -

Chevron Warns California Facing Historic Fuel Crisis As Diesel Hits Record $7

The world's biggest energy execs are currently at the annual CERAWeek conclave in Houston where, understandably, they are dropping bulletin bombs reeking of fire and brimstone, and warning the already critical oil/gas situation will only get worse if the pre-war status quo isn't restored (which incidentally will be great for their bottom lines... until the world is tipped into a recession).

Take US oil giant Chevron, which warned that California is careening toward an energy crisis because of the Iran war (which will likely be resolved soon), and that the company may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations (which is unlikely to ever be resolved as long as Dems are in charge of the Golden State).

California is highly exposed to the disruption rippling across commodity markets because it imports about 20% of its refined fuels from Asia. But as extensively discussed here, oil product shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore and elsewhere are at risk of slowing significantly as Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Asian nations struggling to meet their own demand at home let alone export to California.

Chevron’s oil refining head Andy Walz said the potential for fuel shortages in California is his worst fear: We have refineries in Asia that are having to cut crude, and so they’re going to make less products,” Walz said in an interview Tuesday. “What if San Francisco doesn’t have the jet fuel it needs? Or Los Angeles? Or maybe gasoline?”

And as if to confirm his warning, just hours later the price of California Diesel hit a record high just above $7 per gallon, or $7.072 to be precise. 

That topped the previous record of $7.012 in June 2022, in the first months of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Source: AAA

Since California is disconnected from the US fuel-making centers of Texas and Louisiana, it is essentially an energy island. That’s compounded by multiple refinery closures in recent years due to increased costs driven by regulations designed to fight climate change and cap oil industry profits, not to mention the state's toxic and oppressive regulatory regime. 

As a result, California consumers are more exposed than most other Americans to surging energy prices because of the Iran war. They already pay nearly $6 for a gallon of gasoline, compared with a national average of close to $4, due to the state's ruinous legacy "green" regime. It’s a growing political problem for Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who is expected to run for president in 2028.

“California has decided that they’re going to rely on imports,” Walz said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. “It’s a dangerous game", Walz added tongue-in-cheek.

California officials should declare an “energy emergency,” reform its climate and tax rules and promote in-state oil production, Walz said. Without such action, Chevron could quit refining in California within a decade, he said.

A spokesman for California Governor Newsom’s office said oil companies are “cashing in” on the war in Iran and running a “coordinated campaign” to attack California. In other words nothing will change until prices get to be so high, the state's residents demand change.

“If they’re serious about protecting consumers, they should direct that concern where it belongs: at Donald Trump. There’s no end in sight to Trump’s war taxing American families at the pump,” the spokesman, Anthony Martinez, said in an email, confirming Newsom's plan is... to pretend there is no problem.

Meanwhile, anyone with a brain can see what's coming: the problem in California is one of the state’s own making, Walz said.

The Trump administration has already used emergency wartime powers to authorize Sable Offshore, a Houston-based driller, to restart oil production off the California coast. The president has also temporarily waived a century-old maritime law called the Jones Act to help make it cheaper and easier to ship gasoline, diesel and other commodities between US ports.

Meanwhile, California already has the nation’s toughest fuel standards as well as a carbon cap-and-trade program that critics say forces consumers to pay the highest prices in the nation. Its goal to reduce carbon emissions 85% by 2045 relies heavily on a near-complete phaseout of gasoline-powered cars and a large reduction in heavy industry — including refining. 

Nonetheless, California remains the country’s second-largest consumer of gasoline and the largest market for jet fuel, for which there’s currently no practical low-carbon alternative. The Democratic state's recent revulsion toward Elon Musk, and Tesla, has not helped the looming fuel crisis. 

The California intent to offshore carbon to other nations has offshored their security of supply,” Walz said. “They’ve offshored jobs and they haven’t had any impact on carbon.” 

Chevron, which has tankers sitting idle on each side of the Strait of Hormuz, is taking the unusual step of shipping Gulf Coast oil to California through the Panama Canal as the war disrupts shipments from the region that West Coast refiners typically use, Walz said. 

China has already imposed a fuel export ban as shipments from the Gulf dwindle. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked long enough, other Asian countries could follow suit. Chevron’s scenario planning initially looked at the Strait being closed until the end of March.

“Now our scenario plans are worse,” Walz said. “It’s going to be longer and we’re trying to look around the corner.”

California is home to more than 30 military bases. That includes one of the largest in the US, Travis Air Force Base, which Chevron supplies from its Richmond refinery.

“I think the US government should be concerned,” Walz said.

But wait, there's more because the state's green lunatics threaten to make an already dire crisis something truly historic: new emissions rules proposed by the California Air Resources Board, if implemented, threaten to drive costs for the state’s remaining refineries even higher. Chevron estimates the additional expenses could hit $500 million within five years.

“They need to abandon the tax on refineries or they won’t have any refineries in 10 years,” Walz said. “If it stays that way — Chevron will be gone in 10 years for sure. We won’t be able to make it.”

* * *

But it's not just California that faces a historic crisis: Europe is about to get crushed as well. 

According to Shell CEO Wael Sawan, Europe will soon begin to experience the same kind of disruption to fuel supplies that Asia has faced due to the war in Iran in recent weeks. Sawan said the effects of the conflict continue to ripple out across global fuel markets, first in South Asia, then Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, and increasingly in Europe as April approaches.

“We are trying to work with governments to just alert them to the various levers they will need to pull, including on the demand side, including what they need to do around storage,” he said Tuesday at the same CERAWeek conference. 

Just like California, expect Europe to do nothing besides pointing fingers, until it is too late. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/25/2026 - 22:10

Pages