"A Highly Kinetic Period" - Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Reflects On H1... & What Lies Ahead

The first half of 2025 was a highly kinetic period, to say the least, according to Goldman Sachs head of hedge fund coverage, Tony Pasquariello.

With a touch of distance from the screens this week, he went back and read a bunch of his recent notes, which served as a reminder of the immense narrative volatility along the path.

For example:

• US exceptionalism was a bright and shining consensus position at the start of the year...

• ...that gave way to the worst short-cycle selloff in domestic equities since the depths of COVID...

• ...only to see S&P close out H1’25 on the dead highs (and we’ve kept going).

What follows from here is a set of views that Pasquariello took away from the past six months -- with an eye towards the next six months...

MARKET DIRECTION:

- given all of the uncertainty and volatility, it’s hard to look back and NOT be a little impressed with how the US economy has performed.

- remember, in the toughest moments of April, many folks believed that a US recession was all but in the bag. 

- in practice, the risk management challenge was two-fold: calibrating huge changes to US political orthodoxy -- at the exact time as new and disruptive technologies were colliding. 

- if you flash forward to today -- with NDX nearly 40% off the lows -- Mr. Market has added another data point to this analog: periods of exceptionally high policy uncertainty usually give way to strong equity returns.

- the April shakeout also calls to mind this well-worn rule of thumb: within a structural bull market, if you want to be short US equities, your timing needs to be impeccable. 

- now, in trying to work out how the market recovered the highs, perhaps it’s simply because governments, corporates and households stayed on the gas.

- don’t take my word for it, simply look at the trajectory of US fiscal spending ... or the capex plans of the Magnificent Seven ... or US retail demand for stocks.

- looking forward, the bull case is this: the US economy is durable, financial conditions are easy and we’re witnessing a remarkable acceleration of applied innovation. 

- set against that, growth is apt to slow during the second half, risk/reward at this multiple isn’t alluring and global bond markets skate on thin ice (witness the UK again this week).

- in the end, it’s still a bull market, yet one that’s delivering less convexity and less consistency than before -- I wrote that earlier in the year, and I’m sticking with it.

- core positions that I believe in (and would marry as a composite): US technology / US power ... steeper global yield curves ... a (somewhat) weaker dollar ... and don’t fight the primary trend in gold. 

A SHORT SET OF THOUGHTS ON US TECH:

- I’ve long believed that this space offers elements of sword AND shield -- while there were some moments when both the sword and the shield had gone missing, NDX finished H1’25 up a very respectable 8%.

- if Q1 was marked by the swing from Stargate euphoria to DeepSeek disruption, Q2 was marked by remarkable earnings news and an unrelenting commitment to capex. 

- taken together, both champions and challengers were on the offensive, such that demand for compute was some form of insatiable ... I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

- in addition, while the sensation around AI is shifting in the press (namely the risk of impingement on jobs), the capex stories were a clear support for the market (which could only amplify the societal challenges).

- valuation: as Pete Callahan notes, NDX currently trades on a 28x P/E, roughly in line with its 5-year average; while not a tailwind, I don’t regard that as a headwind, either.

- what has clearly changed: in both 2023 and 2024, every stock in the Magnificent Seven rallied; at the halfway point this year, you had three up / three down / one flat.

Conclusion: stay in the pocket, particularly into the seasonal sweet spot that is July.

US VS ROW:

- lest it be said, after a very long (and very powerful) run, the US was NOT the best game in town. 

- with a hefty slice of humble pie, I have to give credit to European equites -- it was hard to make up a bullish story at the end of last year, but the fact set changed, and specific pockets totally shined (witness the DAX, the banks, the defense names). 

- so, whether it was the game change in European defense spending -- or the lightning strike that was DeepSeek -- there were a few fundamental inflections that played to the strengths of non-dollar markets.

- now the question is whether structural allocators of capital will sell their holdings of US equities and put the chips elsewhere -- again, I doubt it, and think the dollar bears the brunt of things for now.    

- in the context of that question, Brett Nelson highlighted a recent WSJ article that reminds us of a clear truth: over the past 50 years, Europe has created (from scratch) 14 companies with a market capitalization of more than $10bn; the US has created 241.

- I also found this week’s headline that AstraZeneca is considering a move of their listing from the UK to the US to be notable (when the headline hit, it was the single largest weight in the FTSE).

- in effect, this was the real story of the first half: it was a bull market for GLOBAL equity indices -- simply pull up a chart of MXWO -- where the US didn’t do all of the heavy lifting. 

THE OTHER BIG DYNAMICS IN THE GAME:

- The Fed: our call is now for sequential cuts in September / October / December ... then two more moves in March and June of next year ... taking the terminal rate down to 3-1/8%.

- on geopolitics, I’d argue that recent months underscore two long standing observations: (1) no one really knows anything; (2) markets have no moral conscience and tend to move on from things.

- the dollar: this was the joker in the pack, from consensus long to start the year to consensus short by the end of Q2; given the Fed is set to out-ease everyone, and given more pressure on USD hedge ratios, again I suspect the path of least resistance is to the downside.

- if there’s a bolt-on to the prior line, it’s that I find it really hard to pick other currencies that I actually want to own -- which, of course, leads one back to gold. 

- the deficit / debt sustainability: the first half was proof of how this variable comes in and out of market focus on a random cadence, leaving both bulls and bears with more questions than answers; I suspect it will be with us for a long while, and argues for steeper curves / more term premium.

- flows, positioning: it never ceases to amaze me how market technicals can hold so much sway at market inflection points; I can only assume that technical discipline will continue to matter in the second half (the current bias is favorable, thanks to retail and systematic strategies).

- a follow-on from the prior line: I’d keep a close eye on gross exposures -- which have been running very high, and saw a significant pressure test this week (e.g. the violent breakdown in the momentum factor).

- breadth: yes, this has been a narrow rally, but such is life in a top heavy index; said another way, I don’t buy the old wisdom that poor breadth means S&P is an unhealthy asset.  

- valuation: S&P trades on an objectively elevated multiple, yet that fact alone hasn’t stood in the way of progress, and I suspect the onus is now on earnings to carry the load. 

- bitcoin: brick-by-brick, I think it continues to achieve a modicum of respect as a long-term store-of-value (as much of the altcoin universe struggles).

- stablecoins: this theme came on like a wildfire, and I suspect it isn’t going to magically disappear anytime soon;.

- hedge funds: you know my bias, but the fact is both discretionary and systematic managers are performing well.

- the celebration of July 4th, I agree with this wisdom from the great Warren Buffett: “we’re always in the process of change, and we’ll always find all kinds of things to criticize in the country ... but the luckiest day in my life is the day I was born, because I was born in the United States.”

Finally, a chart for the road...

...one that invites as big a question as any right now. 

With thanks to Brett Nelson, this plots earnings growth of the US vs various cuts of ROW (12-month trailing EPS, expressed in local FX).

To my eye, it clearly demonstrates why US equities have outperformed so much in the post-GFC era (particularly post-COVID). 

Now the debate turns on whether that immense gap is set to converge, or not:

More here from Goldman Sachs Sales & Trading team available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 16:00

"A Highly Kinetic Period" - Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Reflects On H1... & What Lies Ahead

The first half of 2025 was a highly kinetic period, to say the least, according to Goldman Sachs head of hedge fund coverage, Tony Pasquariello.

With a touch of distance from the screens this week, he went back and read a bunch of his recent notes, which served as a reminder of the immense narrative volatility along the path.

For example:

• US exceptionalism was a bright and shining consensus position at the start of the year...

• ...that gave way to the worst short-cycle selloff in domestic equities since the depths of COVID...

• ...only to see S&P close out H1’25 on the dead highs (and we’ve kept going).

What follows from here is a set of views that Pasquariello took away from the past six months -- with an eye towards the next six months...

MARKET DIRECTION:

- given all of the uncertainty and volatility, it’s hard to look back and NOT be a little impressed with how the US economy has performed.

- remember, in the toughest moments of April, many folks believed that a US recession was all but in the bag. 

- in practice, the risk management challenge was two-fold: calibrating huge changes to US political orthodoxy -- at the exact time as new and disruptive technologies were colliding. 

- if you flash forward to today -- with NDX nearly 40% off the lows -- Mr. Market has added another data point to this analog: periods of exceptionally high policy uncertainty usually give way to strong equity returns.

- the April shakeout also calls to mind this well-worn rule of thumb: within a structural bull market, if you want to be short US equities, your timing needs to be impeccable. 

- now, in trying to work out how the market recovered the highs, perhaps it’s simply because governments, corporates and households stayed on the gas.

- don’t take my word for it, simply look at the trajectory of US fiscal spending ... or the capex plans of the Magnificent Seven ... or US retail demand for stocks.

- looking forward, the bull case is this: the US economy is durable, financial conditions are easy and we’re witnessing a remarkable acceleration of applied innovation. 

- set against that, growth is apt to slow during the second half, risk/reward at this multiple isn’t alluring and global bond markets skate on thin ice (witness the UK again this week).

- in the end, it’s still a bull market, yet one that’s delivering less convexity and less consistency than before -- I wrote that earlier in the year, and I’m sticking with it.

- core positions that I believe in (and would marry as a composite): US technology / US power ... steeper global yield curves ... a (somewhat) weaker dollar ... and don’t fight the primary trend in gold. 

A SHORT SET OF THOUGHTS ON US TECH:

- I’ve long believed that this space offers elements of sword AND shield -- while there were some moments when both the sword and the shield had gone missing, NDX finished H1’25 up a very respectable 8%.

- if Q1 was marked by the swing from Stargate euphoria to DeepSeek disruption, Q2 was marked by remarkable earnings news and an unrelenting commitment to capex. 

- taken together, both champions and challengers were on the offensive, such that demand for compute was some form of insatiable ... I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

- in addition, while the sensation around AI is shifting in the press (namely the risk of impingement on jobs), the capex stories were a clear support for the market (which could only amplify the societal challenges).

- valuation: as Pete Callahan notes, NDX currently trades on a 28x P/E, roughly in line with its 5-year average; while not a tailwind, I don’t regard that as a headwind, either.

- what has clearly changed: in both 2023 and 2024, every stock in the Magnificent Seven rallied; at the halfway point this year, you had three up / three down / one flat.

Conclusion: stay in the pocket, particularly into the seasonal sweet spot that is July.

US VS ROW:

- lest it be said, after a very long (and very powerful) run, the US was NOT the best game in town. 

- with a hefty slice of humble pie, I have to give credit to European equites -- it was hard to make up a bullish story at the end of last year, but the fact set changed, and specific pockets totally shined (witness the DAX, the banks, the defense names). 

- so, whether it was the game change in European defense spending -- or the lightning strike that was DeepSeek -- there were a few fundamental inflections that played to the strengths of non-dollar markets.

- now the question is whether structural allocators of capital will sell their holdings of US equities and put the chips elsewhere -- again, I doubt it, and think the dollar bears the brunt of things for now.    

- in the context of that question, Brett Nelson highlighted a recent WSJ article that reminds us of a clear truth: over the past 50 years, Europe has created (from scratch) 14 companies with a market capitalization of more than $10bn; the US has created 241.

- I also found this week’s headline that AstraZeneca is considering a move of their listing from the UK to the US to be notable (when the headline hit, it was the single largest weight in the FTSE).

- in effect, this was the real story of the first half: it was a bull market for GLOBAL equity indices -- simply pull up a chart of MXWO -- where the US didn’t do all of the heavy lifting. 

THE OTHER BIG DYNAMICS IN THE GAME:

- The Fed: our call is now for sequential cuts in September / October / December ... then two more moves in March and June of next year ... taking the terminal rate down to 3-1/8%.

- on geopolitics, I’d argue that recent months underscore two long standing observations: (1) no one really knows anything; (2) markets have no moral conscience and tend to move on from things.

- the dollar: this was the joker in the pack, from consensus long to start the year to consensus short by the end of Q2; given the Fed is set to out-ease everyone, and given more pressure on USD hedge ratios, again I suspect the path of least resistance is to the downside.

- if there’s a bolt-on to the prior line, it’s that I find it really hard to pick other currencies that I actually want to own -- which, of course, leads one back to gold. 

- the deficit / debt sustainability: the first half was proof of how this variable comes in and out of market focus on a random cadence, leaving both bulls and bears with more questions than answers; I suspect it will be with us for a long while, and argues for steeper curves / more term premium.

- flows, positioning: it never ceases to amaze me how market technicals can hold so much sway at market inflection points; I can only assume that technical discipline will continue to matter in the second half (the current bias is favorable, thanks to retail and systematic strategies).

- a follow-on from the prior line: I’d keep a close eye on gross exposures -- which have been running very high, and saw a significant pressure test this week (e.g. the violent breakdown in the momentum factor).

- breadth: yes, this has been a narrow rally, but such is life in a top heavy index; said another way, I don’t buy the old wisdom that poor breadth means S&P is an unhealthy asset.  

- valuation: S&P trades on an objectively elevated multiple, yet that fact alone hasn’t stood in the way of progress, and I suspect the onus is now on earnings to carry the load. 

- bitcoin: brick-by-brick, I think it continues to achieve a modicum of respect as a long-term store-of-value (as much of the altcoin universe struggles).

- stablecoins: this theme came on like a wildfire, and I suspect it isn’t going to magically disappear anytime soon;.

- hedge funds: you know my bias, but the fact is both discretionary and systematic managers are performing well.

- the celebration of July 4th, I agree with this wisdom from the great Warren Buffett: “we’re always in the process of change, and we’ll always find all kinds of things to criticize in the country ... but the luckiest day in my life is the day I was born, because I was born in the United States.”

Finally, a chart for the road...

...one that invites as big a question as any right now. 

With thanks to Brett Nelson, this plots earnings growth of the US vs various cuts of ROW (12-month trailing EPS, expressed in local FX).

To my eye, it clearly demonstrates why US equities have outperformed so much in the post-GFC era (particularly post-COVID). 

Now the debate turns on whether that immense gap is set to converge, or not:

More here from Goldman Sachs Sales & Trading team available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 16:00

Waste Of The Day: COVID Loans For 11-Year-Olds

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A weekly allowance or a lemonade stand are great ways to teach young kids how to manage their money. A loan from the Small Business Administration is not. 

Yet according to the Department of Government Efficiency, the SBA issued 5,593 loans in 2020 and 2021 worth $312 million to businesses whose listed owners were 11 years old or younger. Either America’s children have suddenly become expert entrepreneurs or, more likely, another round of fraud from the Covid-19 pandemic has been uncovered. 

DOGE also claimed that the SBA gave 3,095 loans worth $333 million to borrowers who were listed as 115 years or older, bringing the total age-related fraud to $645 million. 

Key facts: An SBA spokesperson confirmed to the fact-checking site Snopes that "According to our preliminary analysis, SBA can confirm that over 5,500 loans, totaling about $312M, were distributed to businesses whose only listed owner was 11 years old or younger at the time of the disbursement." 

The White House did not offer additional context to Snopes or FOX News, and it’s unclear how the loans were actually used. Isabel Casillas Guzman, the SBA administrator at the time when the loans were paid, also did not return Snopes’ request for comment. 

Snopes noted that it’s possible the loans were paid to adult borrowers, but the recipients appear as children in the government database because of poor recordkeeping.

Either way, the mistake is serious. The Pandemic Response Accountability Committee recently claimed that at least $79 billion of fraud during the pandemic was “readily preventable,” but government officials were not verifying Social Security numbers before paying out loans. 

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.  

Background: Though DOGE provided taxpayers with a great service by announcing the potential fraud publicly, full transparency would require the government to release records showing the loans so DOGE’s claims can be independently verified. 

That’s a common theme with DOGE’s efforts to fight government waste. After DOGE announced it had cancelled 7 million active Social Security numbers for people 120 years or older, OpenTheBooks filed a Freedom of Information Act request for a list of Social Security disbursements by age group. The Social Security Administration claimed that no records exist. 

OpenTheBooks also analyzed every program cancelled by DOGE as of May 27 and found that the average person can only verify the dollar figures for 42% of the contracts and 27% of the grants. That doesn’t necessarily mean DOGE’s dollar figures are mistaken, but it means that public sites like USAspending.gov that record government spending data are insufficient for full transparency because they do not update in real time. 

Summary: Whether or not 11-year-olds actually received loans from the SBA, it’s clear that government recordkeeping and fraud prevention measures need a serious overhaul. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 15:25

Waste Of The Day: COVID Loans For 11-Year-Olds

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A weekly allowance or a lemonade stand are great ways to teach young kids how to manage their money. A loan from the Small Business Administration is not. 

Yet according to the Department of Government Efficiency, the SBA issued 5,593 loans in 2020 and 2021 worth $312 million to businesses whose listed owners were 11 years old or younger. Either America’s children have suddenly become expert entrepreneurs or, more likely, another round of fraud from the Covid-19 pandemic has been uncovered. 

DOGE also claimed that the SBA gave 3,095 loans worth $333 million to borrowers who were listed as 115 years or older, bringing the total age-related fraud to $645 million. 

Key facts: An SBA spokesperson confirmed to the fact-checking site Snopes that "According to our preliminary analysis, SBA can confirm that over 5,500 loans, totaling about $312M, were distributed to businesses whose only listed owner was 11 years old or younger at the time of the disbursement." 

The White House did not offer additional context to Snopes or FOX News, and it’s unclear how the loans were actually used. Isabel Casillas Guzman, the SBA administrator at the time when the loans were paid, also did not return Snopes’ request for comment. 

Snopes noted that it’s possible the loans were paid to adult borrowers, but the recipients appear as children in the government database because of poor recordkeeping.

Either way, the mistake is serious. The Pandemic Response Accountability Committee recently claimed that at least $79 billion of fraud during the pandemic was “readily preventable,” but government officials were not verifying Social Security numbers before paying out loans. 

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.  

Background: Though DOGE provided taxpayers with a great service by announcing the potential fraud publicly, full transparency would require the government to release records showing the loans so DOGE’s claims can be independently verified. 

That’s a common theme with DOGE’s efforts to fight government waste. After DOGE announced it had cancelled 7 million active Social Security numbers for people 120 years or older, OpenTheBooks filed a Freedom of Information Act request for a list of Social Security disbursements by age group. The Social Security Administration claimed that no records exist. 

OpenTheBooks also analyzed every program cancelled by DOGE as of May 27 and found that the average person can only verify the dollar figures for 42% of the contracts and 27% of the grants. That doesn’t necessarily mean DOGE’s dollar figures are mistaken, but it means that public sites like USAspending.gov that record government spending data are insufficient for full transparency because they do not update in real time. 

Summary: Whether or not 11-year-olds actually received loans from the SBA, it’s clear that government recordkeeping and fraud prevention measures need a serious overhaul. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 15:25

The (Falling) Price Of A July 4th Cookout

This Independence Day, shoppers can expect to pay an average of $70.92 for a cookout for 10 people, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) annual Fourth of July market basket survey. This marks a 30 cent decline from last year, although it remains the second most expensive year since the survey began back in 2013.

Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart just how much different ingredients for a typical Fourth of July menu will set people back this year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to AFBF analysts, while there have been price drops in the cost of items such as pork chops (-8.8 percent), chips (-2.1 percent) and hamburger buns (-2.6 percent), there have also been increases in the cost of beef (+4.4 percent), potato salad (+6.6 percent) and canned pork and beans (+8.2 percent).

“Inflation and lower availability of some food items continue to keep prices stubbornly high for America’s families,” said AFBF Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub.

“High prices don’t mean more money for farmers, however. Farmers are price takers, not price makers. Their share of the food retail dollar is just 15 percent. The cost of running their farm is up, from labor and transportation, to taxes.”

Among the factors influencing the increases are the fact fewer cattle are available for processing, while steel and aluminium tariffs have led to increased prices on canned goods. Egg prices remain elevated, however have come down from their peaks earlier this year as egg-laying chicken populations are starting to recover from avian influenza. Meanwhile, wheat prices are lower than they were several years ago, contributing to the slightly lower cost of hamburger buns.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 14:50

Don't Call It The Fourth!

Authored by Kevin Finn via AmericanThinker.com,

Every year around this time I go on a bit of a crusade with my friends and family. They start talking about the Fourth of July -- planning celebrations and expressing their hopes for good weather that day.

It bothers me that this is the only national holiday that's referred to by its calendar date rather than its name.

We don't wish people a "Merry December 25th" or "Happy January 1st," do we?

I think it's important to remember what it is we're celebrating.

Thomas Jefferson was the primary author of the Declaration of Independence, a revolutionary document that proclaimed the American colonies' separation from British rule. In a courageous act of defiance against one of the world's most powerful empires, the Continental Congress adopted this document on July 4, 1776.

Referring to this date as "Independence Day" captures this pivotal moment and reminds us that our nation was founded on the principles of liberty, self-governance and the pursuit of happiness. It reminds us of the sacrifices that were made by our Founding Fathers and countless others who risked, and in some cases sacrificed their lives to establish a free, sovereign America.

Referring to this holiday as merely, "the Fourth of July" reduces this pivotal date to a mere date on the calendar. The phrase is not incorrect, but it lacks the depth, the resonance and the emotional impact of "Independence Day."

A calendar date does not evoke the weight of this historical event or the principles and ideals that (ostensibly) continue to shape our national identity. Calling it "The Fourth of July" conjures up images of barbecues, fireworks and parties which, while enjoyable, can overshadow the true purpose of this holiday. Without the historical context of "Independence Day." the celebration runs the risk of becoming simply a generic holiday, disconnected from its roots in the struggle for independence and the revolutionary vision that inspired it.

"Independence Day" carries a significance that transcends the U.S. All across the globe, nations celebrate their own independence days, commemorating their liberation from colonial or oppressive rule. 

India, Nigeria and Mexico, among others, proudly celebrate their independence and use the term to signify their sovereignty and their national identity.

By referring to the U.S. holiday as "Independence Day," we align ourselves with this global tradition and reinforce the shared human aspiration for self-determination and liberty. This can reinforce a sense of connection and solidarity with other countries while at the same time emphasizing the unique story of our own founding.

When we refer to this holiday as "Independence Day," it calls us to reflect on our nation’s history and principles. It encourages us to consider the relevance of the principles that Jefferson laid out in the Declaration of Independence. It inspires us to honor our past while at the same time contemplating our role in upholding and advancing those principles now, and in the future.

The phrase, "The Fourth of July" feels static, like a generic label that does not invite introspection or connection to our founding ideals. When we prioritize "Independence Day", we keep the true spirit of this holiday alive. We help to ensure that it remains a meaningful celebration of liberty, unity, and the enduring legacy of the American Revolution. 

Let's embrace the phrase, "Independence Day," so as to honor the ideals, aspirations and the sacrifices that continue to define the United States.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 13:05

Don't Call It The Fourth!

Authored by Kevin Finn via AmericanThinker.com,

Every year around this time I go on a bit of a crusade with my friends and family. They start talking about the Fourth of July -- planning celebrations and expressing their hopes for good weather that day.

It bothers me that this is the only national holiday that's referred to by its calendar date rather than its name.

We don't wish people a "Merry December 25th" or "Happy January 1st," do we?

I think it's important to remember what it is we're celebrating.

Thomas Jefferson was the primary author of the Declaration of Independence, a revolutionary document that proclaimed the American colonies' separation from British rule. In a courageous act of defiance against one of the world's most powerful empires, the Continental Congress adopted this document on July 4, 1776.

Referring to this date as "Independence Day" captures this pivotal moment and reminds us that our nation was founded on the principles of liberty, self-governance and the pursuit of happiness. It reminds us of the sacrifices that were made by our Founding Fathers and countless others who risked, and in some cases sacrificed their lives to establish a free, sovereign America.

Referring to this holiday as merely, "the Fourth of July" reduces this pivotal date to a mere date on the calendar. The phrase is not incorrect, but it lacks the depth, the resonance and the emotional impact of "Independence Day."

A calendar date does not evoke the weight of this historical event or the principles and ideals that (ostensibly) continue to shape our national identity. Calling it "The Fourth of July" conjures up images of barbecues, fireworks and parties which, while enjoyable, can overshadow the true purpose of this holiday. Without the historical context of "Independence Day." the celebration runs the risk of becoming simply a generic holiday, disconnected from its roots in the struggle for independence and the revolutionary vision that inspired it.

"Independence Day" carries a significance that transcends the U.S. All across the globe, nations celebrate their own independence days, commemorating their liberation from colonial or oppressive rule. 

India, Nigeria and Mexico, among others, proudly celebrate their independence and use the term to signify their sovereignty and their national identity.

By referring to the U.S. holiday as "Independence Day," we align ourselves with this global tradition and reinforce the shared human aspiration for self-determination and liberty. This can reinforce a sense of connection and solidarity with other countries while at the same time emphasizing the unique story of our own founding.

When we refer to this holiday as "Independence Day," it calls us to reflect on our nation’s history and principles. It encourages us to consider the relevance of the principles that Jefferson laid out in the Declaration of Independence. It inspires us to honor our past while at the same time contemplating our role in upholding and advancing those principles now, and in the future.

The phrase, "The Fourth of July" feels static, like a generic label that does not invite introspection or connection to our founding ideals. When we prioritize "Independence Day", we keep the true spirit of this holiday alive. We help to ensure that it remains a meaningful celebration of liberty, unity, and the enduring legacy of the American Revolution. 

Let's embrace the phrase, "Independence Day," so as to honor the ideals, aspirations and the sacrifices that continue to define the United States.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 13:05

July The Fourth In 12 Charts: Food, Fireworks, Travel, & More...

Via The Epoch Times,

Consumer fireworks imports surged 68.5 percent during the pandemic, reaching a peak of 427.8 million pounds in 2022. After returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, fireworks imports increased by 22.6 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, display fireworks imports declined to an all-time low in 2021, a 62 percent decrease from 2019, but rebounded to more than 20 million pounds in 2022.

U.S. fireworks companies rely almost entirely on China, which produces 99 percent of consumer fireworks and 90 percent of professional display fireworks, according to the American Pyrotechnics Association. In 2024, China accounted for 98 percent of total fireworks imports to the United States.

In February, consumer fireworks imports increased by 83 percent, compared to the average for that month in previous years. The spike occurred after President Donald Trump imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China on Feb. 1.

Fireworks imports typically have a seasonal peak in May or June, with the highest monthly imports recorded in June 2022. The 2022 rebound resulted primarily from the post-pandemic recovery.

COVID-19 put a damper on traditional Fourth of July celebrations, with the most parades and gatherings canceled for July 4, 2020. In March 2021, a year after the COVID-19 shutdown began, President Joe Biden predicted that Americans could return to small group gatherings by that year’s Fourth of July. By June 2022, 38 states had ended their COVID-19 emergency declarations and the country experienced record levels of imported fireworks.

Fewer Americans are tuning in to the Macy’s Fourth of July Fireworks Special on NBC, compared to a decade ago. Broadcast viewership dropped 20 percent annually between 2018 and 2020, but has stabilized at an average of 4.4 million viewers over the past four years. Meanwhile, ratings among adults aged 18-49 have declined, from 1.5 percent a decade ago, to 0.6 percent in 2024.

In 2021, Joey Chestnut set a new record eating 76 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes in the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest held on Coney Island, New York, every July 4. After his record-setting performance, men’s totals slightly declined in subsequent years. The women’s record of 51 hot dogs was set by Miki Sudo in 2024, and marked her 10th title.

Over the past three years, New Yorkers have taken fewer subway rides during the week of the Fourth of July holiday, with an average decline of 15 percent compared to June totals. July ridership rebounded after the holiday week, at an average increase of 11.8 percent. During Thanksgiving week, subway ridership also decreased, falling by 21 percent compared to typical weeks in November.

Vehicle travel in the United States fluctuates seasonally, typically peaking in July due to warmer weather and holidays, and dipping in February. In July 2021, Americans drove 296.5 billion miles, enough to circle the Earth nearly 12 million times.

An average of 86 percent of Americans planned to celebrate the Fourth of July over the past decade. The only dip in overall celebrations occurred in 2020, when engagement decreased by 10 percent. That year, an average of 62 percent opted for cookouts, barbecues, or picnics, activities that were minimally affected by the pandemic shutdown.

Attendance at fireworks shows declined to 24 percent in 2020, but gradually recovered to more than 40 percent in 2023, returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 10:45

Trump Expects Hamas Answer In 24 Hours On 'Final' Peace Proposal

President Donald Trump announced Friday that it would likely become clear within 24 hours whether Hamas would accept what he described as a "final proposal" for a ceasefire with Israel in Gaza.

He also mentioned in the fresh statement that he had discussions with Saudi Arabia about broadening the Abraham Accords, in reference to the normalization agreements between Israel and certain Gulf nations established during his first term in office.

Via CNN/AP

On Tuesday Trump said that Israel had agreed to the terms required for a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, during which both sides would aim to work toward ending the lengthy war which has been raging in the wake of the Oct.7, 2023 terror attacks.

A Hamas official on Thursday told the BBC that the Palestinian militant group is now "ready and serious" to reach a deal if it ended the war.

That was in reaction to President Trump having said that Israel has agreed to the "necessary conditions" to finalize the proposed 60-day ceasefire in Gaza.

Trump said the US would "work with all parties to end the War" - in a post on Truth Social. However, no details have been given on this particular ceasefire plan. Israel has not confirmed it agreed to any specific conditions as of yet.

"I hope... that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better - IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE," Trump wrote. But what will the consequences be if Hamas refuses - more bombing of the Gaza Strip?

Some details revealed in Israeli media have been presented as follows:

According to an unsourced Channel 12 report Thursday, Trump has offered a direct guarantee to Hamas that if it agrees to the so-called Witkoff framework — which includes the release of 10 living hostages in two phases and 18 bodies in three phases over the course of a 60-day ceasefire — the US will ensure efforts continue to reach a lasting end to the conflict.

Israel is also believed to be under heavy US pressure to clinch a ceasefire deal ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington for talks with Trump next week. The prime minister is set to visit the White House on Monday.

Trump also said Friday that Gazans have "been through hell" and that "I want the people of Gaza to be safe." But he didn't directly answer when a reporter asked if the US is still considering taking any security responsibility over the Gaza Strip as part of the proposed truce plan.

Trump, in response to a question about whether he intends to control the Gaza Strip: I want the people of Gaza to be safe; that’s more important than anything else. They’ve been through hell pic.twitter.com/pcXiPpwDBz

— mahmoud khalil (@zorba222) July 3, 2025

The plan that the Trump administration floated in February included the permanent relocation of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and turning the land into a Mediterranean resort destination.

No Arab or neighboring nation has stepped forward to say they would accept more Palestinian refugees. Almost all regional states have historically absorbed at least tens or hundreds of thousands. American security contractors are currently present in the Gaza Strip, controversially as part of a US and Israeli-backed humanitarian aid distribution program.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 10:10

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 28 June

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 28 June. ...

22-28 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 71.9% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.30 (0.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$117.45 (-0.1%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking slightly behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase further during the summer travel season; however, we will likely see some hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.



 

 

This week, I speak with Kate Moore, chief investment officer at Citi Wealth. We discuss her extensive and diverse career, which saw her as Head of Thematic Strategy and a portfolio manager for the Global Allocation Fund at BlackRock, and stops at JP Morgan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Moore Capital and Morgan Stanley in senior investment positions. She also holds a degree in political and social thought from the University of Virginia.

She discusses how her career moved from Strategy & Consulting side of the industry, to the Sell Side, then Hedge Funds, and now into Wealth Management. This perch allowed her to see in real time as the industry has evolved and changed.

A list of her favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Richard Bernstein, founder of RBA. The firm focuses on Macro trends, and manages (or advises on) $15.7B AUM. Previously, he was Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch from 1988-2009. Bernstein was named to Institutional Investor’s “All-America Research Team” 18X, and inducted into the Institutional Investor “Hall of Fame.”

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

The post MiB: Kate Moore, Citi Wealth CIO appeared first on The Big Picture.

What We Celebrate On The Fourth

Authored by Armstrong Williams via The Epoch Times,

There are many who will gather this July Fourth under the guise of celebration—barbecues, fireworks, flag-waving. But how many understand, truly understand, what they are celebrating?

In an era where grievance has replaced gratitude, the Fourth of July has become a hollow ritual for some.

The danger is not just in forgetting our history, but also in rewriting it through the narrow lens of modern discontent.

Let us be clear: America was not perfect in 1776. It is not perfect now. But perfection is not the metric of freedom—liberty is.

And in declaring independence, those flawed men charted a course toward a society where individuals, not monarchs or mobs, hold the reins of destiny.

There is much hand-wringing today over America’s Founding Fathers—slaveholders, landowners, men of contradiction. But history does not offer saints; it offers context. And in the context of their age, the radical notion that government should derive its power from the consent of the governed was earth-shattering. That principle—not the imperfections of the men who penned it—is what we celebrate on the Fourth of July.

The alternatives offered by critics of America’s founding are, frankly, unconvincing. Replace merit with quotas, liberty with bureaucracy, individual responsibility with collective guilt, and you get a society that stagnates, not flourishes. What is too often lost in modern discourse is that the freedoms we take for granted—freedom of speech, freedom of worship, due process, equal protection—are still rare commodities in much of the world.

I’ve spent my life examining the consequences of ideas. And few ideas have been as consequential—or beneficial—as the belief that man is born free and that government exists to secure, not bestow, those freedoms.

America, despite its sins, has done more to lift the condition of man than any other nation in history.

It is fashionable in elite circles to mock patriotism, to decry the flag as a symbol of oppression rather than emancipation. But tell that to the millions who fled tyranny to reach our shores. Tell that to the Vietnamese boat people, the Cuban refugees, the Soviet dissidents. They risked everything—not to criticize America, but to join it.

We must not let spoiled intellectuals and political opportunists redefine America as irredeemable. That is not just dishonest; it is dangerous. If we teach our children to hate the foundations of their country, do not be surprised when they tear the whole edifice down, brick by brick.

The Fourth of July is not about a flawless past; it is about the promise of the future. It is a recommitment to the ideals of ordered liberty, limited government, and the dignity of the individual. We are not celebrating men; we are celebrating principles.

Liberty is not inherited automatically. It must be understood, defended, and passed down. And that begins by refusing to let this holiday become another victim of ideological vandalism.

So this Independence Day, I ask a simple question: Are we a people still worthy of freedom? If the answer is yes, then act like it. Know your history. Teach it. Defend it. And above all, live like liberty means something, because without vigilance, even the freest nation can forget why it exists.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 07:55

My 3 (4?) day weekend WFB reads:

• For ‘Jaws’ fans, there is no bigger island than Martha’s Vineyard. Fifty years after the release of the summer blockbuster, many visitors won’t go in the water. (Washington Post)

• The dollar’s recent decline is not about ‘safe haven’ status: Confidence in the dollar system had a bad shock in April, after the president’s absurd Rose Garden performance on “liberation day”. But as an explanation of what is going on over the past month or so, the loss of safe haven status simply won’t do. Look at what is happening at the same time: 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are falling; Inflation break-evens are falling; Equities are hitting all-time highs; Corporate bond spreads are tight; Gold has been going sideways; Volatility has fallen. (Financial Times)

• How a Lawyer in the Hamptons Became the King of DWI Cases: For elites inclined to hedonistic summers, criminal defense lawyer Edward Burke Jr. can make a simple drunk-driving charge all but disappear (Wall Street Journal)

• American pride plummets to new low: Share who say they are “extremely” or “very” proud to be American, by party. (Axios)

• Housing market at risk of “sustained downturn” as price growth cools: A new report from Sotheby’s International Realty says the top end of the market has undergone a renaissance. (Bloomberg) see also  The Worst Housing Market in America Is Now Florida’s Cape Coral: Home prices have been battered by everything from overbuilding to insurance costs. Realtors warn there’s further to fall. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Radical Development of an Entirely New Painkiller: The opioid crisis has made it even more urgent to come up with novel approaches to treating suffering. Finally there’s something effective. (New Yorker)

• The Largest Camera Ever Built Releases Its First Images of the Cosmos: The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is poised to discover billions of new astronomical objects, revolutionizing understanding of everything from the history of the solar system to the workings of dark energy (Wired)

• Is the decline of reading poisoning our politics? Your brain isn’t what it used to be. (Vox) see also Manage the Noise: You can architect your media diet, who and what you pay attention to, frame the news flow appropriately, and simply make better decisions. (The Big Picture)

• The truth about using cannabis for health problems: It’s being used for everything from pain to insomnia. When it might help and when it won’t — in any case, don’t vape or smoke it. (Washington Post)

• Bigger Than the Game: Shohei Ohtani shows us what America isn’t. (The Bulwark)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Kate Moore, Chief Investment Officer of Citi Wealth; responsible for overseeing investments, portfolio strategy and asset allocation for the trillion dollars Citi Wealth manages. Previously, she was Head of Thematic Strategy and PM for the Global Allocation Fund at BlackRock.

 

American pride plummets to new low

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 July 4th Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Professor Warns UK Gov't Is Preparing For Civil War, Using Russian Invasion Threat As Cover

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A prominent academic in London has warned that the UK government is actively preparing for the break out of a civil war, but is using the “logically absurd” cover of a Russian invasion to put contingencies in place.

Pointing to remarks made in the 2025 National Security Strategy paper last month, Professor David Betz of King’s College London has suggested that the British government is using the phantom threat of a foreign attack in order to harden critical national infrastructure against sabotage.

“For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat,” the Whitehall paper noted, adding that “critical national infrastructure – including undersea cables, energy pipelines, transportation and logistics hubs” are a major target.

During a discussion with Professor Lewis Halsey, Professor Betz, a modern war expert recently stated “there is growing apprehension about the security of Britain, the security of its infrastructure specifically, and about the potential for active conflict at home in a very direct manner, effecting people in a very direct manner.”

“But that’s not external in origin, that’s internal, and that has to do with the way our society is now configured, it is highly fractured,” Betz continued, adding “Low trust, highly fractured, and highly politically factionalised which is leading us increasingly inevitably into civil conflict.”

Betz further outlined how the Russian threat is being amplified as a cover story.

“The fact of the matter is there is a great distance between us and Russia… we are not militarily threatened in a direct way on the ground by any obvious external enemy, even Russia,” Betz outlined.

“Which isn’t to say there aren’t things which Russia could do to attack the UK should they wish to, but one of those is not occupying the village green with Russian soldiers, that simply, frankly, is a rather bizarre assertion,” he contended.

“What they’re concerned about is domestic conflict, and they perfectly understand this, but that’s completely politically toxic for them to say so publicly, hence the convenience of saying ‘we need to develop… a citizen’s militia for the protection of critical infrastructure’,” Betz further noted.

“To say that we’re doing this against the potential of Russian attack, which is frankly a logically absurd proposition, but it is convenient as a pretext,” he emphasised.

Betz also recently posited that many European countries are on the verge of civil war and may already be past the point of no return.

He says his research shows there is a statistically significant chance of a civil war breaking out within five years in a major European country, with a distinct possibility that the conflict could spill over to neighbouring Nations.

Professor Of War Warns Many European Countries Are In A ‘Pre CIVIL WAR’ State

Speaking to documentarian Andrew Gold, Betz further noted that it is likely too late to prevent things getting “very much worse” in Europe, and that governments may only be able to better prepare for the inevitable.

“I would probably avoid big cities. I would suggest you reduce your exposure to big cities if you are able,” Betz chillingly urged.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 06:10

Swiss To Vote On 50% Inheritance Tax That Risks Exodus Of The Super-Rich

In a national referendum set for November, the people of Switzerland will vote on whether the country should impose a 50% inheritance tax on the wealthiest of people -- under a regimen so harsh that not even surviving spouses would be spared from the rapacious confiscation. Naturally, this is triggering predictions of a mass-exodus of wealthy people, with opponents pointing to a wave of departures the United Kingdom has witnessed in the wake of its own recent wealth-seizure move.

Under the proposal, a 50% federal tax would apply to inheritances and gifts above 50 million francs -- about $63 million. The measure isn't supported by the legislative Federal Assembly nor the executive Federal Council. However, under Swiss law, public proposals must be put to a nationwide plebiscite if 100,000 supporting signatures are collected. The signature campaign was led by Switzerland's Young Socialists. 

Swiss Young Socialists rally in Bern as they submit signatures forcing a referendum on a 50% inheritance and gift tax (Keystone via swissinfo.ch)

Reliably sounding like an elementary school group project, under the Young Socialists proposal, the confiscated wealth would be thrown down a woke rathole, with all proceeds used to combat "climate change." While Swiss inheritance taxes at the cantonal level provide an inheritance tax exemption for transfers to spouses and direct descendants, the socialists' proposal for the 50% federal tax would not. Peter Spuhler, 66-year-old owner of steel giant Stadler Rail, decried the proposal as a pending "disaster for Switzerland," estimating the tax would seize upwards of 2 billion Swiss francs  

A popular vote for the new inheritance tax on Nov 30 could hammer Switzerland's long-held status as a premier tax haven for the world's wealthiest people. A consortium of opponents that includes centrists and conservatives is already working to dissuade Swiss voters from indulging any impulses to soak the rich. “The brutal 50% inheritance tax threatens the existence of family businesses and causes high economic costs. It’s a setback for everyone,” said the organization in a statement. 

In April, a new tax rule took effect in the UK, imposing a 40% inheritance tax on the global assets of "non-doms," a term that refers to residents of the UK who are considered under British law to have their permanent home -- their domicile -- in another country. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is already considering avenues by which the change can be undone, after it promptly triggered an exodus of wealthy people eyeing alternatives like the United Arab Emirates, Italy and, yes, Switzerland. Among those who are either considering departure from the UK or have already done so: Egypt's richest man, Nassef Sawiris, and Indian steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal, who has lived in the UK for 30 years. 

Swiss Young Socialists hold a banner reading "Tax the Rich, Save the Planet" 

Georgia Fotiou, a lawyer advising private clients at Zurich-based Staiger Law, says the proposal is already harming Switzerland's ability to benefit from the UK's own inheritance-tax folly. “In terms of the chance for Switzerland to attract people leaving the UK, the damage has been done. The timing was terrible,” she told the Financial Times. “It hasn’t stopped everyone from coming but more have chosen Italy, Greece, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere instead.” 

To become law, the proposal must clear two hurdles, garnering not only a majority of support nationwide, but also in a majority of Switzerland's 26 cantons. Despite the substantial likelihood of failure, the proposal already has some wealthy people on the move, say Swiss tax advisors and wealth managers. They caution that even a defeat -- if it's by a relatively modest margin -- could leave mega-wealthy individuals hesitant about the country.

As Frédéric Rochat, managing partner of Geneva-based Lombard Odier, told the Times, “It needs to be voted down with such an overwhelming majority [that this possibility can] be put to bed for 20 years."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 05:35

Why'd Erdogan Decide To Expand Turkiye's Sphere Of Influence Eastwards?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Assad’s downfall set into motion a fast-moving sequence of events that now threatens Russian influence in the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia; i.e. its entire southern periphery...

The latest developments in the South Caucasus are connected to the expansion of Turkiye’s sphere of influence eastwards towards the Caspian Sea and thenceforth Central Asia. The unrest in Armenia is driven by the opposition’s concerns that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is prepared to turn the country into a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate. That could occur if he reaches a deal with them like some have reported to open the “Zangezur Corridor” without allowing it to come under Russian control like agreed.

The Moscow-mediated Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire of November 2020 mandates the creation of a Russian-controlled corridor across Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which Baku calls the Zangezur Corridor, for connecting both parts of Azerbaijan. Russian control would prevent Turkiye from streamlining its military logistics to Central Asia via these means for replacing Russia’s influence there with its own as part of a grand strategic powerplay that autonomously aligns with the West’s agenda.

The second development is directly connected with the first and relates to the newfound trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. President Ilham Aliyev evidently believes that his country has a brighter future as part of a Turkish-led regional order instead of continuing to multi-align between it and Russia. He likely arrived at this conclusion due to the earlier cited reports about the Zangezur Corridor, which could have led to his policy recalibration that then emboldened him to bully Russia for regional prestige.

The catalyst for these developments is the credible possibility that the Zangezur Corridor might open up without coming under Russian control like agreed, which itself was brought about to a large degree by Assad’s downfall and the US’ subsequently changed policy towards the broader region in the aftermath. Turkish influence briefly surged in Syria before spooking Israel, which prompted Trump to bring previously terrorist-designated Ahmad al-Sharaa (Jolani) in from the cold to help manage their tensions.

He met him, encouraged him to join the Abraham Accords with Israel (which the latest reports suggest that Sharaa is considering), and removed the US’ sanctions on Syria. This sequence of events will greatly limit Turkish influence in Syria, but it’s balanced out by the PKK’s disbandment and the possible consolation prize that Trump could have given his friend Erdogan. That might involve him ceding the US’ previously envisaged joint US-French protectorate in Armenia to Turkiye and Azerbaijan instead.

It wouldn’t just be a goodwill gesture on Trump’s part but a pragmatic move since the US’ efforts to turn Armenia into a bastion for dividing-and-ruling the region required subordinating or overthrowing the Georgian government, which repelled several rounds of Color Revolution unrest to this end. This Biden-era failure derailed the US and France’s military logistics to Armenia, hence why it’s better to jettison this deadweight, which can now turbocharge Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power at Russia’s expense.

These calculations and associated policy changes, which stem from the black swan event of Assad’s downfall, account for the latest developments in the South Caucasus. Nevertheless, Aliyev didn’t have to abandon Azerbaijan’s Russian-Turkish balancing act nor bully Russia as he clearly ordered his officials to do by raiding Sputnik’s office and beating up other detained Russians. These emotional, short-sighted, and totally unexpected moves inadvertently risk Azerbaijan becoming Turkiye’s junior partner with time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 05:00

The 1775 Two Step That Led To American Independence

Authored by Jim Bovard

As Americans prepare to celebrate the 249th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, we should also toast the 250th anniversary of a savvy political two-step that paved the way to formally breaking with Britain the following year.

“We, your Majesty’s faithful subjects…” began the petition beseeching reconciliation with King George from the Second Continental Congress on July 5, 1775.  That offering became known as the Olive Branch Petition.  The following day, Congress issued its Declaration of the Causes and Necessity of Taking Up Arms, explaining why hostile British troops would henceforth be gunned down on the battlefields of America.

Were the petition and the Declaration on Taking Up Arms sent to England on the same ship?  If so, was a sticker attached to the Olive Branch petition saying, “Open me first”?  The petitioners “entreat your Majesty’s gracious attention to this our humble petition,” stressed their “utmost deference for your Majesty,” boasted that “our breasts retain too tender a regard for the kingdom from which we derive our origin,” and stressed that they remained “faithful subjects” to “our Mother country.”

Even tying a red ribbon around that petition would not have helped. King George III refused to accept it or even to read it. The king’s obstinacy helped spur the rarely remembered provision of the First Amendment of the Bill of Rights, the right “to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

That Olive Branch petition was fiercely controversial within Congress. Virginia delegate Benjamin Harrison declared, “There is but one word in the paper of which I approve, and that is the word, ‘Congress.’” Harrison was later elected governor of Virginia; his son and great grandson both became U.S. presidents. The Olive Branch petition passed as one last attempt at reconciliation with the British monarch in part because many Americans believed that the king had been misled by his corrupt or devious advisors. This was the 1700s version of the Russian folk saying “if only the Czar knew about all the starving peasants!”

King George’s response to the petition was shaped in part by the British military disaster at Bunker Hill, when patriot sharpshooters killed or wounded every British officer on the battlefield amidst a vast carnage inflicted. That Pyrrhic victory spooked the British generals but the lesson was not learned until far too late in London. Two days after the Olive Branch petition was delivered to British officials in London, the British government formally labeled the American colonies in a state of “open and avowed rebellion” and called for “utmost endeavours to withstand and suppress such rebellion.” The subsequent vast increase in British aggression swayed hundreds of thousands of Americans’ minds in favor of independence at any cost.

The July 6 Declaration, written by Thomas Jefferson and John Dickinson, castigated “the legislature of Great Britain” which “attempted to effect their cruel and impolitic purpose of enslaving these colonies by violence.”  Americans felt that the British legislature had been warring on them practically since the day the French and Indian War ended. The Declaratory Act of 1766 announced that Parliament “had, hath, and of right ought to have, full power and authority to make laws and statutes of sufficient force and validity to bind the colonies and people of America, subjects of the crown of Great Britain, in all cases whatsoever.” The July 6 Declaration demanded to know: “What is to defend us against so enormous so unlimited a power? Not a single man of those who assume it, is chosen by us; or is subject to our control or influence.” Law after law trumpeted Americans’ legal inferiority to their foreign masters. “Writs of assistance” entitled British soldiers to search any home for evidence of evading tariffs on tea or whiskey. Massachusetts lawyer James Otis denounced those writs for conferring “a power that places the liberty of every man in the hands of every petty officer.”

The 1775 Declaration proclaimed: “We have counted the cost of this contest, and find nothing so dreadful as voluntary slavery.” “Slavery by Parliament” was a commonly used denunciation of British legislative power grabs. Law Professor John Phillip Reid, author of The Concept of Liberty in the Age of the American Revolution, noted that “most commentators of the Eighteenth Century thought slavery the opposite of liberty without equating it with chattel slavery…. The word ‘slavery’ did outstanding service during the revolutionary controversy… because it summarized so many political, legal and constitutional ideas and permitted a writer to say so much about liberty.” Bernard Bailyn, author of The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution, wrote, “‘Slavery’ was a central concept in eighteenth century political discourse. As the absolute political evil, it appears in every statement of political principle… in every exhortation to resistance.”

The British parliament saw the American colonies as offering “all the easy emoluments of statuteable plunder,” a phrase in the 1775 Declaration that captured the default attitude of politicians to anyone under their sway. The Continental Congress scoffed that their British rulers “boast of their privileges and civilization, and yet proffer no milder conditions than servitude or death.” The Declaration stated that “we mean not to dissolve that union which has so long and so happily subsisted between us.” But it warned that Americans would only lay down their arms “when hostilities shall cease on the part of the aggressors, and all danger of their being renewed shall be removed, and not before.”

The Declaration on Taking Up Arms contains flashes of wisdom that should have been burned into popular memory as much as any phrase from the following year’s Declaration of Independence. In 1775, Congress boldly declared that “our attachment to no nation upon earth should supplant our attachment to liberty.” Unfortunately, Washington policymakers long ago buried that maxim in their pursuit of dominating much of the globe.

One year later, Americans offered only contempt and cannon balls for King George. Jefferson wrote in the Declaration: “A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.”

Actually, there is plenty of political wisdom in both the 1775 and 1776 declarations, as well as many other state papers in that era. But schools are probably doing a worse job than ever before in helping young Americans recognize the deadly risks of officialdom unleashed. Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor groused in 2014 that fewer than 20% of high school seniors “can say what the Declaration of Independence is, and it’s right there in the title.” Did O’Connor roll over in her grave when President Trump recently astounded an ABC reporter by asserting that the 1776 Declaration was “a declaration of unity and love and respect”?

Regardless of Oval Office revisionism, Americans should never forget that their nation was forged in resistance to political slavery and claims by distant masters to unlimited power.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 23:35

Bi-Partisan Seattle Citizens Group Launches Campaign To Ban Homeless Encampments

A new bipartisan group, the Quality of Life Coalition, is pushing a ballot initiative to address King County’s growing homeless encampment crisis — a problem they say local politicians have let spiral out of control, according to 770 KTTH. 

On Tuesday, the group filed the “Compassionate Public Safety Act,” which would ban unauthorized public camping and require that unhoused individuals be directed to available shelter.

Led by former KTTH host Saul Spady, the coalition describes itself as nonpartisan and community-driven, with backing from residents, artists, and business owners frustrated by the region’s inaction. “Whether we’re Republicans, Democrats, independents, artists or business owners, we all see the same thing,” Spady told “The Jason Rantz Show.”

Jason Rantz writes that the ordinance would make camping on public property — like sidewalks, parks, and streets — a misdemeanor, but only if shelter space is offered and declined. It also includes an immediate ban on camping that poses a danger to others, threatens public safety, or interferes with government services, regardless of shelter availability. The policy follows models used in cities like Burien and San Diego.

Spady emphasized urgency, citing the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup. “The entire world coming to Seattle looking for a great city... and instead, they’re going to find tents,” he said. “They’re going to find the world’s greatest graffiti collection. They’re going to find the ‘fenty bend’ being performed on the street. And what we need to do is we need to get those who are on the street into shelter.”

The coalition cites internal polling showing 77% of King County voters support a camping ban tied to shelter availability. If they collect 50,000 valid signatures, the measure will either be passed by the County Council or put to a public vote.

Supporters include Nirvana co-founder Krist Novoselic: “I support the Quality of Life Coalition because this is the first step toward making King County safe, livable, and worthy of our incredible cultural legacy I’m proud to be a part of.” Former Democratic Rep. Jesse Johnson added, “This initiative gives King County an on-ramp toward real solutions—housing, shelter, and ultimately healing.”

The coalition plans to launch a larger campaign in 2026 for mandatory rehab after repeated public safety offenses. “This ain’t rocket science. It’s civic science, and our politicians have failed,” said Spady.

Signature collection is expected to begin after Independence Day.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 23:00

CCP Leaders Propose Regulations To Rein In Xi's Superagencies

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China’s top leaders are proposing new rules to regulate a set of powerful commissions and groups established nearly a decade ago by communist Party chief Xi Jinping to centralize his power.

A Chinese paramilitary policeman stands guard in Tiananmen Square before the introduction of the Communist Party of China's Politburo Standing Committee, the nation's top decision-making body, on a polluted day in Beijing on Oct. 25, 2017. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

The proposed regulation was reviewed on June 30 during a closed-door meeting of the Politburo, the Party’s second-highest decision-making body, Chinese state media reported.

Details of the new measures are scarce. A summary of the meeting published by state mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency stated that the aim is to regulate these commissions’ “establishment, responsibilities, and operations.”

The changes target agencies called “decision-making, deliberative and coordinating institutions,” the report read, referring to more than a dozen Party groups that steer policies across various sectors, including financial services, foreign affairs, technological development, and education.

Many of these Party committees were established or gained more power in 2018 when Xi introduced a series of directives aimed at consolidating the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) dominance over state agencies in decision-making.

Officials at the June 30 meeting ordered to limit the reach of these groups, stating that they “must avoid taking over others’ functions or overstepping boundaries,” according to Xinhua.

The directive has raised eyebrows among outside observers, who consider it a rare signal that Party elites speak up against the direction Xi has taken the CCP.

“The Politburo essentially delivered a fierce denunciation of these groups: they are prone to focus on trivial issues and overstep,” Li Linyi, a Chinese current affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times.

Since the agendas of these groups’ meetings are determined by the Party’s general secretary, according to the CCP’s regulations, “such criticisms can be seen as directed at Xi Jinping himself,” Li said.

He linked this development to the power struggles within the Party’s top brass.

“It is highly likely that Xi’s power could face further limitations in the future,” Li said.

Echoing his comments, Shen Ming-shih, a China expert at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank funded by the Taiwanese government, told The Epoch Times that the new rules were likely intended to set the stage for Party elders to return to the inner circle.

Speculations have been growing in recent weeks that the 72-year-old Xi’s health, whether political or physical, has taken a turn for the worse, following a series of unexplained disappearances and the downfall of his protégé and old associate.

The latest figure to be ousted is Adm. Miao Hua, whose ties with Xi go back more than two decades to the coastal province of Fujian. Miao, who had overseen the military’s political loyalty since 2017, was abruptly suspended from office and placed under investigation for alleged graft in November 2024. On June 27, the CCP expelled the admiral from the military’s top leadership body without explanation.

The move comes as the CCP is dealing with questions about the fate of another Xi ally, Gen. He Weidong, who hasn’t been seen in public view since mid-March. The general has missed at least three major political events that he was expected to attend, but Beijing has remained tight-lipped about his whereabouts.

China’s defense ministry initially said that it was “not aware” of reports that He was under scrutiny. During a monthly news briefing on April 24, the ministry again dodged a question about the general’s status. He is one of the two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission, which commands the country’s armed forces.

According to some well-connected analysts who previously spoke to The Epoch Times, Xi’s political control was significantly weakened due to the power struggle with Party elders.

Amid the uncertainty surrounding the Party’s leadership, the Politburo’s meetings have been closely watched for signals of power transfer.

The Politburo’s June 30 meeting didn’t provide any information about when they will convene senior party officials for a closed-door conclave called the fourth plenum, which is expected to decide personnel changes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 22:25

"We've Become Serfs On Our Own Land": The USDA Trap, Foreign Land Sales, And The Collapse Of American Farming Source: Les Très Riches Heures du duc de Berry, March: the Château de Lusignan

77 family farms vanish every day in the U.S. But what’s really killing them? A CHD.TV interview with rancher and Beef Initiative policy fellow Breeauna Sagdal reveals the trap: USDA regulations, monopolized meatpacking, foreign land grabs, and debt-servicing farmers who aren’t allowed to feed their neighbors.

In a wide-ranging Children’s Health Defense interview with Dr. Meryl Nass - a physician, biowarfare expert, and outspoken critic of pandemic-era overreach - Breeauna Sagdal of The Beef Initiative lays out how America's farmers are being regulated, indebted, and squeezed off the land. From USDA slaughter restrictions to foreign land sales and monopolized meatpacking, the system isn’t broken—it’s rigged. And Sagdal says the only way out starts with shaking your rancher’s hand.

Negative Income and the Two-Job Farmer

Source: USDA

"We are all working a second job," Sagdal tells Dr. Meryl Nass in a June 17 CHD.TV broadcast. "In many cases, it feels like we've become serfs on our own land."

Source: USDA

According to the USDA's Economic Research Service, median farm income from farming alone was negative $1,781 in 2023. Over 50% of livestock producers lost money. The only way they survived was off-farm jobs, personal debt, or liquidation of breeding stock.

Farmers Banned From Feeding Their Neighbors

"I can't even legally sell what I grow on my farm to any of my friends, family, or neighbors," Sagdal says. Why? Because of USDA slaughter rules. With few exceptions, unless meat is processed at a USDA-inspected facility, and labeled with a USDA stamp, it's illegal to sell. An issue compounded by the fact that just four companies have monopolized the few meatpacking plants that still exist. 

Sagdal: "We’ve got to stop criminalizing food production. I think it might be easier to sell heroin than raw milk."

USDA inspectors have helped shut down local and regional slaughterhouses for decades, while court documents and video footage show an inspector giving a free pass to a Tyson-owned pork facility—fueling criticisms of USDA selectionism.

Between 1990 and 2016, federally inspected plants fell 36% and non-federally inspected facilities dropped 42%. As a consequence, many small farms lack access to USDA‑inspected custom or state processing facilities—locking them out of grocery chains and school lunch contracts, even when their meat is superior.

Source: USDA

USDA Owns the Debt, Foreign Buyers Get the Land

The Farm Credit System now holds 46% of U.S. agricultural debt, and tens-of-millions of acres in collateral. At a time when conventional lenders consider agricultural loans “bad hygiene,” Sagdal points out that liquidity deficits have added to the plight farmers face today. 

Without access to capital, farmers stagnate or default. That - Nass explains - is when the land goes to the government’s lending arms—then quietly into foreign hands.

 Sagdal: "Farm Credit owns 46% of ag debt... and that land is being sold to foreign entities. The number one foreign buyer isn’t even China. It’s Canada."

According to the USDA's 2023 AFIDA report, Canada remains the top foreign landholder in the U.S., with over 12.8 million acres. China ranks 5th, but public focus on CCP ties often obscures the broader pattern: distressed land transfers out of American hands.

Nass gives an example of reasons why a farmer might take a loss, such as the recent H5N1 culling event; “the federal government pays $16 per bird, but the farmer doesn't get that. Cal-Maine gets the $16, and the farmer may get nothing, or $2… then,  because he had chickens with bird flu on his property, he's not allowed to grow any more chickens for six months.” 

Nass explains that these losses equate to property liens, and foreclosures. “This is how farmers become serfs on their own land.“

The Monopoly Machine: Seizing Control Through the Means of Production 

Sagdal points to JBS, the Brazilian meat giant, to illustrate how the means of production have been consolidated in the U.S. In 2020, JBS was fined for price fixing, but deemed too big to fail, by then Secretary Tom Vilsack after members of Congress asked why the company was still allowed to offer tournament contracts. 

The tournament system, detailed in a 2020 Government Affairs Office (GAO) report, is a corporate herd-share agreement in which “subsidiaries” of the USDA contract out the raising of livestock to farmers. 

Supplying the proprietary genetics, feed, and veterinarian medicine, Sagdal argues that just four main corporations - who own the USDA certified production plants - have been allowed to corner the only means of market access.

As Sagdal explains, she can grow meat for her own family to consume, but she's unable to legally sell it unless it goes through a USDA certified production facility. 

JBS - one of the “Big 4” corporations that have seized the means of meat production - now controls over 120 U.S. meat labels. 

“So you think you're buying a product from one company,  and then a product from another company,” Nass says.  “But no, allot of it is JBS. They're the number one seller of beef and chickens in the world.” 

With the “Big 4” owning 85% of the livestock market, and 95% of the United State’s domestic meat supply processed through just five main facilities, farmers have few options outside of tournament contracts—consumers have even less options. 

The USDA’s Double Standard: Burden Americans, Reward Imports

From APHIS rules to EPA wastewater standards, U.S. producers face a thicket of regulations that imported beef, lamb, and pork do not. Meanwhile, WTO agreements block honest country-of-origin labeling.

 Sagdal: "I would love to raise clean, grass-fed beef for my kids' school. But I can’t. The system won’t allow it."

As of 2024, the U.S. has become a net-importer of meat, importing roughly 26% of its ground beef supply alone. WTO rules still block mandatory country-of-origin labeling, allowing multinational packers to repackage foreign meat as "Product of USA."

77 Family Farms Lost Per Day

 "We have lost 77 family farms per day... This is a national security crisis."

From 2017 to 2024, Sagdal notes the U.S. lost over 160,000 farms. According to USDA census data, average herd sizes are shrinking, and cattle inventory is now near 1951 levels — when America had half the population that it does today.

Source: USDA

"We are solely dependent on imports for our food security," Sagdal warns. "Two of the Big 4 processors are foreign-owned."

Shake Your Rancher’s Hand

The solution isn’t lobbying your senator. It’s feeding your own community. Sagdal wants to supply beef to her kids’ school—but the system blocks her.

Until that changes, every transaction with a local rancher is an act of resistance.

"I want to keep producing quality food for my family and neighbors. But our farm,  like most family farms today, stands at a critical tipping point. We're not asking for handouts. We simply want the opportunity to access the marketplace, and give the American people a choice.”
— Breeauna Sagdal

Read that again. Because when the land is gone, the labels will lie, and the beef will come from Brazil.

Watch the full interview here.

Support your local rancher. Ask about slaughter. Ask about feed. Ask about country of origin. And for God’s sake, shake your rancher’s hand.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 21:50