US Drug Overdose Deaths Fall Nearly 27 Percent To Lowest Level In 5 Years

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Drug overdose deaths in the United States dropped sharply in 2024, falling to their lowest level since before the pandemic, according to provisional data released on May 14 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Packets of fentanyl and methamphetamine seized from a truck crossing into Arizona from Mexico are displayed during a news conference at the Port of Nogales, Ariz., on Jan. 31, 2019. U.S. Customs and Border Protection/Reuters

The report estimates that 80,391 people died of a drug overdose in 2024—a 26.9 percent decline from 110,037 in 2023, marking the largest one-year drop since the agency began collecting comparable data more than four decades ago.

It’s the second consecutive annual decrease after overdose deaths surged during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Social isolation, disruptions to treatment, and other factors helped push fatalities to a peak of nearly 115,000 in 2023.

All but two states—Nevada and South Dakota—recorded declines last year, with especially steep drops in hard-hit areas such as West Virginia, which reported a 43.5 percent decrease. While the final figures may shift slightly as data are finalized, the CDC data indicate an unmistakable downward trend.

The decline was driven almost entirely by a reduction in fentanyl-related deaths. The synthetic opioid—at least 50 times more potent than heroin—was linked to more than 76,000 deaths in 2023, but that number dropped to just over 48,000 in 2024.

Experts have cited several possible reasons for the downturn, including expanded access to the overdose reversal drug naloxone—sold as Narcan—which became available over the counter in 2023. It is now carried by most first responders. Increased use of addiction treatment medications and changes in drug supply patterns may also be factors.

Despite the improvement, the new data revealed troubling increases in deaths tied to stimulants such as methamphetamine and cocaine.

Fatalities involving meth rose from 29,456 to 37,096, while cocaine-related deaths jumped by about 8,000, reaching 30,833. Since overdose statistics often overlap—many deaths involve multiple substances—it remains unclear how many of these fatalities involved stimulants alone.

The Trump administration has intensified efforts to choke off the international supply chain responsible for flooding the country with synthetic opioids.

While most fentanyl consumed in the United States is manufactured in Mexico, the raw chemicals used to make it overwhelmingly come from China. A Pulitzer Prize-winning investigation by Reuters last year exposed how Chinese chemical suppliers and Mexican cartels continue to enable the epidemic.

Reporters were able to legally purchase all the chemicals and equipment needed to produce $3 million worth of fentanyl for just $3,600—exploiting a since-closed customs loophole known as the “de minimis” rule. That exemption had allowed goods valued at or under $800 to be imported duty-free.

A recent report from the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) found that Beijing is not only failing to stop the export of fentanyl precursors but is actively encouraging it.

According to the report, the Chinese regime offers tax rebates and state subsidies to companies producing illegal synthetic opioid components, fueling what lawmakers call a deliberate assault on the United States.

“Through its actions, as our report has revealed, the Chinese Communist Party is telling us that it wants more fentanyl entering our country,” Select Committee Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) said during an April 16, 2024, hearing. “It wants the chaos and devastation that has resulted from this epidemic. And yes, that means more dead Americans.”

In response, the Trump administration in February announced a new round of targeted tariffs on China’s synthetic drug supply chain, aiming to disrupt the production and export of fentanyl precursors.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 17:25

Moody's Downgrades USA Credit Rating From Aaa

Earlier this week, we noted that short-dated USA sovereign CDS were trading wider than China and Greece as trade policy uncertainty and the debt ceiling 'X-date' loomed...

...well, it appears Moody's Rating Agency noted it too... because they just downgraded the Government of United States of America's (US) long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlook to stable from negative.

The one-notch cut comes more than a year after Moody’s changed its outlook on the US rating to negative, with Moody's joining Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in grading the world’s biggest economy below the top, triple-A position.

This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.

Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. 

We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration. 

Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat. 

In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government's debt and interest burden higher. 

The US' fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared to other highly-rated sovereigns.

The stable outlook reflects balanced risks at Aa1. 

The US retains exceptional credit strengths such as the size, resilience and dynamism of its economy and the role of the US dollar as global reserve currency. In addition, while recent months have been characterized by a degree of policy uncertainty, we expect that the US will continue its long history of very effective monetary policy led by an independent Federal Reserve. 

The stable outlook also takes into account institutional features, including the constitutional separation of powers among the three branches of government that contributes to policy effectiveness over time and is relatively insensitive to events over a short period. 

While these institutional arrangements can be tested at times, we expect them to remain strong and resilient.

The US' long-term local- and foreign-currency country ceilings remain at Aaa. 

The Aaa local-currency ceiling reflects a small government footprint in the economy and extremely low risk of currency and balance of payment crises. 

The foreign-currency ceiling at Aaa reflects the country's strong policy effectiveness and an open capital account, reducing transfer and convertibility risks.

RATIONALE FOR THE RATINGS DOWNGRADE TO Aa1

Over more than a decade, US federal debt has risen sharply due to continuous fiscal deficits. 

During that time, federal spending has increased while tax cuts have reduced government revenues. 

As deficits and debt have grown, and interest rates have risen, interest payments on government debt have increased markedly.

Without adjustments to taxation and spending, we expect budget flexibility to remain limited, with mandatory spending, including interest expense, projected to rise to around 78% of total spending by 2035 from about 73% in 2024.

If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, which is our base case, it will add around $4 trillion to the federal fiscal primary (excluding interest payments) deficit over the next decade.

As a result, we expect federal deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation. 

We anticipate that the federal debt burden will rise to about 134% of GDP by 2035, compared to 98% in 2024.

Despite high demand for US Treasury assets, higher Treasury yields since 2021 have contributed to a decline in debt affordability. 

Federal interest payments are likely to absorb around 30% of revenue by 2035, up from about 18% in 2024 and 9% in 2021. The US general government interest burden, which takes into account federal, state and local debt, absorbed 12% of revenue in 2024, compared to 1.6% for Aaa-rated sovereigns.

While we recognize the US' significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics.

Moody's couldn't help but take a shot at Trump's tariffs:

The US economy is unique among the sovereigns we rate.

It combines very large scale, high average incomes, strong growth potential and a track-record of innovation that supports productivity and GDP growth. 

While GDP growth is likely to slow in the short term as the economy adjusts to higher tariffs, we do not expect that the US' long-term growth will be significantly affected.

But they did say something positive...

Despite reserve diversification by central banks globally over the past twenty years, we expect the US dollar to remain the dominant global reserve currency for the foreseeable future.

...

Moreover, the resilience of the US sovereign rating to shocks is supported by strong monetary and macroeconomic policy institutions.

Although policy has been less predictable in recent months, relative to what has typically been the case in the US and other highly-rated sovereigns, we expect that monetary and macroeconomic policy effectiveness will remain very strong, preserving macroeconomic and financial stability through business cycles.

The timing is exceptional, as Republicans try to get Trump's 'big beautiful bill' out of committee... and as everyone knows, there's no such thing as a coincidence in Washington.

US equity markets are trading down after hours on the news:

Trump's gonna be pissed!!

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 17:05

Trump Tax Bill Fails To Advance As Conservative Holdouts Double Down On 'No'

Update (1210ET): The House Budget Committee has voted down the reconciliation bill by a vote of 16-21 - with GOP Reps. Clyde, Roy, Breechen, Norman and Smucker (who flipped his vote) all voting "no".

Speaker Mike Johnson (L), President Donald Trump, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX)

"This bill falls profoundly short. It does not do what we say it does with respect to deficits," said Rep. Chip Roy.

Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-GA) said "I am unable to support this package in its current form, but I look forward to strengthening this bill to ensure that it does pass, so that we full all of our America First promises to the American people."

Whilst Ralph Norman (R-SC) said "Sadly, I’m a hard no until we get this ironed out."

According to Punchbowl's Jake Sherman, Smucker likely flipped "no" to preserve the ability to reconsider the bill at a later time.

House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Jody Arrington (R-TX) said after the vote "I do not anticipate us coming back today."

*  *  *

A fiery intra-party fight exploded on Capitol Hill Friday as House Republicans clashed over President Donald Trump's mammoth "One Big Beautiful Bill," with Trump himself jumping into the fray to torch conservative holdouts as attention-hungry "grandstanders."

As the House Budget Committee met to advance the 1,116-plus-page megabill - packed with Trump’s signature proposals on taxes, Medicaid, and immigration - chaos broke out behind the scenes, and in front of the cameras, as hardline conservatives threatened to blow up the entire process.

"Republicans MUST UNITE behind ‘THE ONE, BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL!’" Trump posted on Truth Social. "We don’t need ‘GRANDSTANDERS’ in the Republican Party. STOP TALKING, AND GET IT DONE!"

The scorched-earth post came as the House Budget Committee met down to mark up the massive reconciliation bill, which bundles together much of Trump’s second-term policy wishlist: tax cuts, welfare reform, immigration crackdowns, and the death of Biden’s green energy subsidies.

But what was supposed to be a legislative victory lap turned into a high-stakes hostage crisis, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) caught between warring GOP factions, each demanding major changes and threatening to sink the bill if they don’t get their way.

Conservatives on the committee - Reps. Chip Roy, Ralph Norman, Andrew Clyde, and Josh Brecheen - signaled they were ready to vote against the bill unless major changes were made. Their demands include a faster phase-in of Medicaid work requirements, a ban on undocumented immigrants receiving federal benefits, and immediate termination of Inflation Reduction Act clean energy provisions.

"If they don’t [change it], I’m gonna vote no. We’ll kill it," Norman warned Thursday. "I don’t want to. But I will."

The vote is ongoing, with Roy and Norman both using their time during committee to voice their opposition, CNN's Sarah Farris reports.

Ok we're now at TWO no votes: Roy and Norman both used their time during committee to say they're opposed

Both Brecheen and Clyde supposed to speak now but neither are there to speak. If either opposes, it's done for today. https://t.co/pDIwEaw6zT

— Sarah Ferris (@sarahnferris) May 16, 2025

The tension spilled into full view Friday morning when Norman, Roy, and Clyde abruptly left the committee room moments before the markup was scheduled to begin, prompting immediate speculation they were staging a walkout. All three returned shortly afterward, saying little, but still signaling deep frustration.

Norman told reporters the situation was “very disappointing," adding “I hope they recess.”

Rep. Roy: “I'm not going home this weekend. I'm staying here all weekend and we're going to get this damn thing done but the right way.

I'm not going to vote for a bad bill. I didn't come here to raise debt. I didn't come here to increase deficits. I didn't come here to cement… pic.twitter.com/0jcqR9cgz3

— Rep. Chip Roy Press Office (@RepChipRoy) May 16, 2025

Johnson, for his part, is trying to keep the circus moving. He has pledged to make some concessions - such as speeding up work requirement timelines and possibly harmonizing those across both Medicaid and SNAP - but every adjustment risks triggering a backlash from the other side of the GOP spectrum.

"If you push too hard on one side, the other side bulges out," opines Punchbowl News. "That’s exactly what’s happening here."

Very SALTy

Moderates are already howling over cuts to safety net programs and demanding changes of their own. Blue-state Republicans want the SALT deduction cap raised above the $30,000 ceiling currently in the bill. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) wants to remove language that would block legal refugees from getting food aid. And Florida Republicans are furious over a provision that clamps down on provider taxes - a method states use to draw more federal Medicaid dollars.

The markup itself became a theater of dysfunction - with Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) joking about the fact that he went viral earlier this week for falling asleep during a late-night hearing. “I also appreciate that you schedule the markup during daylight hours,” he said. Chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) fired back: “Some of the staff decided to chip in and equip your chair with an electric shocking mechanism... I hope that is also a bipartisan proposal.”

Unbelievable. Rep. Blake Moore falls asleep during a committee meeting and had to be woken up. pic.twitter.com/xSKPKkP628

— Thomas Sowell Quotes (@ThomasSowell) May 14, 2025

But behind the laughs, the reality is grim. With Rep. Brandon Gill (R-TX) absent for the birth of his child, Johnson can’t afford even a single Republican defection if he wants the bill to make it out of committee.

Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) tried to downplay the drama, telling reporters, “The goal is to get it out of the committee today... because failure is not an option.”

How did we get here? These speed bumps aren’t surprising. This is a gigantic legislative grab-bag with lots of disparate priorities. We get that. It reminds us a bit of Build Back Better – which failed and led to the IRA, for what it’s worth. -Punchbowl News

Indeed, Speaker Johnson has tried to do what many before him could not: push through a comprehensive, everything-at-once bill that pleases both fire-breathing conservatives and centrist pragmatists. But by skipping the usual slow walk through committee education and member negotiations, he may have created a legislative trap for himself.

And of course, after all of this - the bill still has to get through the Senate...

Stay tuned for updates...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 17:00

Trump's Trade War Lit A Fire Under YETI Coolers

Our previous supply chain analysis revealed a list of major US brands that remained heavily exposed to China. The ongoing trade war has lit a fire under U.S. management teams, accelerating efforts to shift production—either through friend-shoring or reshoring—as it appears likely that some level of tariffs on Chinese goods will remain through the second half of the year. 

The latest U.S. company highlighting its China exposure is drinkware brand YETI, which disclosed at an investor conference this week that shifting production out of China has become a top priority.

Goldman analysts Brooke Roach, Evan Dorschner, and others wrote in a note on Thursday about the top takeaways from their visit to YETI's headquarters in Austin, Texas, for an investor meeting. 

Roach said their conversations with management revolved around :

1. U.S. growth;

2. Drinkware;

3. Product innovation and portfolio extension;

4. Supply chain transformation and tariffs;

5. International expansion

On US growth, the drinkware business, and the innovation pipeline, the analyst summarized their conversations with management:

• U.S. growth opportunity: YETI continues to see immense growth opportunity in its core U.S. market. Within this, management expects growth to be driven by three components: (1) Stoking brand heat; (2) Continuing to build out the product portfolio; and (3) Expanding the depth of their channels. On product, management's tone was especially positive on the bags category as a driver, but they also highlighted continued extensions of their core hard cooler and drinkware portfolios through new form factors, use cases, sizes, and other diversification.

• Drinkware: While drinkware remains an area of pressure for the business overall given headwinds in specific SKUs, the company continues to see growth opportunity for the category as a result of innovation and new form factors. Management sounded particularly constructive on improving upon core products (such as stackable products vs. original items in the same family), as well as ceramic coated drinkware items and the upcoming sports jug launch. The food and cooking categories are also an area of opportunity, with management noting that several recent launches (food storage and bowls) were top requested items from ambassadors and customers. The company also pointed out its historical ability to weather other drinkware cycles in the past. Looking ahead, the company remains focused on driving relevancy in the core through innovation, though SKU productivity remains a key priority as well.

• Approach to innovation: The company is accelerating its innovation pipeline, with plans to launch 30 products this year and sustain the faster pace of innovation recently reached, while simultaneously building brand stories around new product launches. YETI discussed its approach to innovation, noting they have dedicated senior leaders who focus on each of their core growth opportunities: (1) softgoods; (2) C&E, and (3) food and beverage. The company highlighted that its current product portfolio provides opportunities for significant expansion in the shoulder areas of where they currently play, with products having connections to the core brand. Importantly, all products must have durability, performance, and design as core principles, as well as offer relevance to the consumer in multiple aspects of their life. YETI is thus focused on broader use cases outside of core outdoor categories (i.e. bags and backpacks rather than just the subcategory of hydration bags). Management noted several new innovations are on the horizon, including a broader rollout of their small soft coolers / lunchbag category and additional SKUs in the backpack category.

Here's where analysts and YETI management discussed tariffs, sourcing, and international strategy.

The key takeaway: tariff pressures have accelerated YETI's supply chain shift out of China, with production increasingly moving to Thailand, Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries equipped with full-scale manufacturing capabilities.

• Tariff commentary: YETI highlighted tariff disruption did drive the company to rework its product development process, driving a faster innovation cycle and speed to market. The company noted that the tariff impact will depend on timing of purchases and capitalization of inventory on the balance sheet (with constraints focused on new launches with production in China), but that it can recapture a lot of the pressures as they continue to diversify and optimize their supply chain.

• Sourcing: Shifting production out of China remains a key priority for YETI. The company clarified that its top partners have been building manufacturing facilities in Thailand and Malaysia which are now ramping. Beyond this, tertiary partners are also shifting production outside of China but are in earlier stages of the transition, with factories set to open in SE Asia. Net, the company expects to have four key partners and five factory facilities outside of China in their first wave of diversification which leverages existing suppliers. Importantly, management noted these facilities have full manufacturing capabilities (not just finishing and testing), are efficient (strong labor force / robotics capabilities), and have competitive costing to China sourcing (following initial start-up inefficiencies).

• International: Management reiterated the Australian and Canadian markets continue to perform well overall, and struck a constructive tone regarding the company's potential in the UK. Germany is also a high-potential market but is in earlier stages of scaling compared to the UK. YETI also highlighted the whitespace it has in Asia which is largely an untapped market for the company.

Roach has a "Neutral" rating on YETI shares with a 12-month price target of $28. 

On Tuesday, Aaron Jagdfeld, CEO of Generac Holdings, appeared on Bloomberg Television to discuss the company's long-term strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. He outlined that Generac has been reducing its supply chain exposure to China since President Trump's first term and will reduce its 10% exposure to 5% in 18 months. 

Seattle, Washington-based Wyze Labs, a popular seller on Amazon of smart home and wireless camera products, revealed on X earlier this month that their "first tariff bill" has "accelerated" efforts to leave China in two months, with serious consideration of restoring supply chains in the United States.

Trump's tariff shock is working. It has always been about pressuring corporate America to detach from cheap China supply chains and either friend-shore or re-shore.  

.   .   . 

Just a reminder...

In Hot Water: YETI Bars Conservative Group from Customizing Cups https://t.co/1EGUoSSiY1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 28, 2025

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 15:00

New College Grads Not Working Out, Most Hiring Managers Say: Survey

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

Inappropriate attire, excessive use of cell phones, poor quality of work, and foul language are just a few of the reasons 65 percent of U.S. hiring managers gave for firing college graduates who had recently started their first job.

A Pollfish survey of 1,000 managers across America, reported by Resume.com, revealed the reasons that eight in 10 managers said newly hired college graduates did not work out during their first year on the job.

Excessive use of cell phones ranked as the top pet peeve of managers, at 78 percent. Some 61 percent of managers found their new hires were entitled or easily offended, while 57 percent noted these new employees were unprepared for the workplace. Lack of a work ethic scored 54 percent, followed by poor communication skills at 48 percent and lack of technical skills at 27 percent.

Other concerns managers had about the graduates included lateness, failure to turn in assignments on time, unprofessional behavior, and inappropriate dress and language. Seventy percent of companies surveyed noted that some hires had to be placed on performance improvement plans.

“Colleges don’t teach students how to behave in the workplace, and there is a lack of transitional support from both universities and employers,” Resume.org’s career coach Irina Pichura stated in the report.

“Most students graduate with little exposure to professional environments, so when they arrive at their first job, they’re often learning basic workplace norms for the first time. Colleges should have a workplace training program to support graduates’ transition to the workplace.”

Clark Lowe, CEO of O'Connor Company, a leading national commercial construction firm, agrees.

“Colleges do a disservice to students in not preparing them for work,” he told The Epoch Times. “Parenting has also been pushed off to the schools, and building of character has been pushed off to the workplace. That’s very frustrating!”

Lowe served as an adjunct professor for Mercy University in Dobbs Ferry, New York, for many years, teaching graduate business courses.

“A lot of professors have no work experience beyond teaching,” he said.

“They grow up in academia and stay there, but all of those degrees and certificates are not going to replace work experience.”

Based in Pinehurst, North Carolina, the O’Connor Company is a remote company with about 60 employees, including skilled construction workers, project managers, and staff in accounting, marketing, and administration. It develops nonresidential structures such as public and educational buildings.

Last year, the company hired 30 new employees and plans to add 10 more this year.

“The latest generation seems to be getting more and more entitled,” Lowe said.

He and his team have also had some problems with recent college graduates, especially those who had never held any type of job.

“In our experience, those people tend to be difficult to work with since the work ethic is not there and they have never learned what it’s like to earn their own paycheck,” he said.

Previous Work Experience Is a Must

Lowe looks for individuals who show initiative and drive and are excited about coming to work. Previous work experience is a must for his firm.

“We don’t care what type of work they did, whether it was in a gas station or retail store,” he said. “What’s important is that jobs teach them responsibility, time management, and a work ethic.”

Only 58 percent of companies responding to the Pollfish survey indicated they plan to hire from the class of 2025, and one in six hiring managers admit they’re hesitant to hire recent graduates at all. Of those managers who are open to hiring new Generation Z graduates, more than 50 percent are seeking qualities such as initiative, a positive attitude, a strong work ethic, adaptability, and openness to feedback.

Pichura also shared advice for recent graduates on how to demonstrate initiative during and after the hiring process.

“During the interview, candidates should come prepared with research and ideas,” she said.

She recommends using real examples, such as stories where the individual stepped up without being asked to solve a problem. She refers to the “Situation, Task, Action, Result” method as the “STAR” method.

Once hired, Pichura noted, a new employee should look for ways to take ownership of tasks, ask for feedback, and go beyond their role.

“Even in an entry-level role, new hires can stand out by looking for small ways to own tasks, solve problems, and offer solutions before being asked,” she said.

“Being reliable, meeting deadlines, and treating every task with care and intention builds trust and credibility early on.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 14:40

UMich Survey Suggests Women, Democrats, & Low-Income Americans Are Out Of Their TDS-Addled Minds

Having embarrassed themselves with their TDS-driven cognitive dissonance over the past few months, Democrat-voting UMich respondents (and women, and low income Americans) in the preliminary May survey (a month after Liberation Day and also post-Pause and the massive meltup in stocks) turned the TDS-terror dial to '11'.

Consumer Expectations are now at their lowest since - drum roll please... May 1980...

Source: Bloomberg

Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. 

Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

The percentage of UMich respondents making unsolicited negative comments about news they've heard on government economic policy has surged to a record high of 66%!

Source: Bloomberg

The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the sixth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009.

Source: Bloomberg

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.7% last month to 7.3% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking five consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more.

Source: Bloomberg

This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large jump among Democrats to a ridiculous 9.6% over the next year!!

Source: Bloomberg

Republicans did forecast a rise in their view of 5Y inflation expectations (while Democrats were flat at 5.1%)...

Source: Bloomberg

Spot the odd one out - UMich Democrats, The NY Fed, or The Market...

Source: Bloomberg

One more for fun - comparing Democrats view of the inflationary outlook to the 'hard' inflationary data...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, given their historic track record (completely refusing to acknowledge the surge in inflation under Biden), should we simply be ignoring the manic Democrats screaming about inflation now?

Source: Bloomberg

The Republicans seemed to get it? But then again, they're all racist ignoramuses with no PhDs... so there's that, right!?

Sorry, one more that made us fucking laugh... one-third of women surveyed believe inflation over the next year will be 15% or higher...

Low-Income Americans are also terrified like never before...

So someone is lying: actual spending all time high while reported sentiment (based on 250 polled UMich respondents) is all time low.

Is the soft-data slump all driven by leftists imbibing mainstream media's desperate propaganda-fueled terror of what Trump is doing?

Perhaps that explains why soft survey data has started to turn back up to hard data reality in the last week as it's hard to hate and keep pushing out your depression-era forecasts when stocks are at record highs and jobless claims remain near record lows.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 14:30

Nightmare New Jersey Transit Strike Cripples Rail Service

New Jersey was hit by its first statewide transit strike in over 40 years early Friday morning, as 450 unionized locomotive engineers walked off the job amid a contract dispute about pay. The strike brought NJ Transit's rail network to a halt and disrupted service for 350,000 commuters.

The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) announced the strike late Thursday night on X, sharing a post that included a link detailing the breakdown in contract negotiations between its negotiators and NJ Transit negotiators over terms of the new contract for locomotive engineers. 

BLET locomotive engineers on strike at NJ Transit. Read more here: https://t.co/DdRhKTf8bh pic.twitter.com/4SR1PqUDIO

— Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (@BLET) May 16, 2025

"After 15-hours of non-stop contract talks today, no agreement on a wage increase was reached this evening between BLET and NJ Transit managers," the union wrote in a press release, adding, "NJ Transit managers walked out of the talks shortly before 10 p.m. and through their actions have forced a strike despite the transit agency having the funds for a raise." 

Rail Teamsters from the @BLET are on strike at New Jersey Transit and picketing major terminals in Newark, New York Penn Station, and Atlantic City.

If NJT can spend half-a-billion dollars on lavish penthouse offices, they can come back to the table with a fair deal for their… pic.twitter.com/HXvPC4BHcC

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) May 16, 2025

BLET members have been in talks with NJ Transit since 2019 about a new labor contract, but have failed to reach a deal every time. 

"In August 2023, the members of the local union voted unanimously to grant the BLET National President the authority to call a strike when it became lawful to do so and if a deal had not been reached," the union said. 

BLET National President Mark Wallace blasted NJ Transit: 

"NJ Transit has a half-billion dollars for a swanky new headquarters and $53 million for decorating the interior of that unnecessary building. They gave away $20 million in revenue during a fare holiday last year. They have money for penthouse views and pet projects, just not for their front-line workers. Enough is enough. We will stay out until our members receive the fair pay that they deserve."

Wallace was quoted by the local media outlet NBC 4 New York as saying that engineers are committed to the strike until a fair deal is reached. 

NBC 4 New York provided a breakdown of key points of the contract dispute:

• The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen went on strike at 12:01 a.m. Friday, leaving some 350K NJ Transit riders impacted

• The nation's third-largest transit system, NJ Transit, provides nearly 1 million weekday trips, including into New York City. More NJ Transit buses are being added, but supplemental service can only accommodate about 20% of the people who could be accommodated if the trains were running

• The MTA and other transit agencies are also adding service to help mitigate impacts

• Wages have been the main sticking point. The union claims its members earn an average of $113,000 a year and says an agreement could be reached if that went to $170,000. NJ Transit leadership disputes the union's data, saying engineers have average total earnings of $135,000 annually

• The last time there was a transit strike was in 1983. That one lasted about a month

A BLET spokesman said the union "is ready to bargain" and "returns to the table now." Talks are now scheduled for Sunday and will include federal mediators.

Earlier, NJ Gov. Phil Murphy apologized to commuters whose daily commutes to work were abruptly disrupted and called the labor action a "slap in the face of every commuter." 

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said, “the contract being negotiated at this moment is about the long-term future of NJ Transit,” but the state will not “cave” in order to end the first railroad strike in more than 40 years for the agency https://t.co/RoqnQYu4jk pic.twitter.com/gp0a7hp0hk

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) May 16, 2025

The New York Times noted: "The abrupt suspension of all of New Jersey Transit's train service on Friday will make it harder for Gov. Philip D. Murphy to claim that he rescued the troubled transit agency."

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 14:20

Democrats Are Digging Their Political Graves... And Trump Is Selling Them The Shovel

Authored by Larry Kudlow via RealClearPolitics.com,

While Democrats are busy defending criminal gang members and terrorists from Tren De Aragua and MS-13, President Trump is putting on a command performance in the Middle East.

In a blockbuster speech yesterday at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump said this: “Before our eyes, a new generation of leaders is transcending the ancient conflicts and tired divisions of the past, and forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos.”

Then, he urged the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords, telling them: 

“It’s my fervent hope, wish, and even my dream, that Saudi Arabia — a place I have such respect for — will soon be joining the Abraham Accords. … You will be greatly honoring me and you will be greatly honoring all those people that have fought so hard for the Middle East.”

Then, he stunned the audience and drew a standing ovation by announcing that he’s lifting American sanctions on Syria.

Today, he met with the Syrian president, the first time an American president has done so in 25 years.

In between all of this, Mr. Trump has probably raised something around $2 trillion of investment from the Saudis and the Qataris.

Yet he also made it clear that Iran could never have a nuclear weapon.

Let me quote:

“Iran can have a much brighter future — but we will never allow them to threaten America and our allies with terrorism or a nuclear attack. The time is right now for them to choose.”

Plus, all that money Mr. Trump is raising to invest in America will be the beneficiary of the lowest taxes and regulations of any major country in the world.

That’s because another Trump success is the big, beautiful tax cut bill that just passed the House Ways and Means Committee under the excellent stewardship of its chairman, Congressman Jason Smith.

Of course, Democrats are gnashing their teeth at Mr. Trump’s flurry of new successes.

Not only his tax policies — but a number of trade and tariff deals, rock-bottom consumer inflation, a resilient economy, and a huge rebound in the stock market.

Democrats thought they could pound Mr. Trump with tariffs, but he has turned the tables on them with his adroit dealmaking.

And, as mentioned before, Democrats backing criminals and gangsters in their crusade to stop deportations are digging a deeper and deeper political grave for themselves.

And Mr. Trump is selling them the shovel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 14:00

Macron, Starmer Blast 'Unacceptable' Russian Stance In Talks, Zelensky Urges More Sanctions

Update(11:30ET): Zelensky in a phone call with President Trump soon on the heels of the Istanbul meeting, which lasted just under two hours, touted that he's willing to "take the fastest possible steps to bring real peace" - but the West needs to hold "a strong stance". Also on the group call were the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland.

Zelensky after the phone call told reporters that "pressure on Russia must be maintained". He stated: "Our position — if the Russians reject a full and unconditional ceasefire and an end to killings, tough sanctions must follow."

Kiev's top European allies blasted Russia's stance as presented in Istanbul "unacceptable":

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, joined by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish leader Donald Tusk, said in a statement on Friday that “the Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time,” according to Reuters.

And PM Starmer followed by saying, "As a result of that meeting with President Zelensky and the discussion with President Trump, we are now closely aligning and coordinating our responses and will continue to do so."

But importantly, neither side has yet shut the door on the possibility of more rounds of direct Russia-Ukraine talks. Certainly the Trump White House wants to see this happen.

As for the Russian delegation, its head Vladimir Medinsky announced that "each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire, detailing it in writing." Here's the Russian readout:

We are satisfied with the outcome and ready to continue our contacts. Here is what has been agreed:
First, in the coming days, there will be a large-scale prisoner exchange: 1,000 for 1,000 people.
Second, the Ukrainian side has requested direct talks between the heads of state. We have taken this request under advisement.
And third, we have agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire, detailing it in writing. Once these visions have been presented, we believe it is appropriate-as has also been agreed-to continue our negotiations.”

Speaking from Albania on Friday after conference call with Trump and Zelensky, via Reuters.

Ukraine is likely to continue pushing for Europe and the US to ramp up the sanctions campaign, and to commit more money and weapons.

* * *

The leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland said Russia’s position at its talks with Ukraine on Friday was “unacceptable,” after a holding a phone conversation with President Donald Trump.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, joined by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish leader Donald Tusk, said in a statement on Friday that “the Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time,” according to Reuters.

The four leaders were speaking on the sidelines of a European meeting in Tirana, Albania, where they were joined by Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and held a group call with President Trump.

“As a result of that meeting with President Zelensky and the discussion with President Trump, we are now closely aligning and coordinating our responses and will continue to do so,” he said,” Starmer said, according to Reuters.

* * *

The Friday meeting between Ukrainian and Russian officials, the first direct engagement of its kind in some three years, has ended, according to Turkey’s foreign ministry, and lasted a little under two hours.

Each side will in the aftermath convey to the press its version of things, and Ukraine has been right out the gate telling CNN that there was nothing meaningful to come out of these first talks.

A Ukrainian source said the Russia delegation "did not have a mandate to make important decisions" and that "they are not ready to decide anything meaningful to end the war."

Turkish Foreign Minister's Press Office/EPA/Shutterstock

Many international headlines Thursday described the team of junior officials sent by the Kremlin as an 'insult' to the peace process; however, it's also the case that no matter who President Putin sends, he is the one who will ultimately make the decisions.

Wall Street Journal has described that "The talks, in the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul, came about as the result of President Trump’s pressure, so far mostly applied on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to find an end to the war."

But, "Just as the negotiations started, Russia struck near the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a salvo of ballistic missiles, according to local officials."

And Reuters agrees in its assessment that there are "no apparent sign of progress so far in narrowing the gap between the sides, and a Ukrainian source called Moscow's demands 'non-starters'.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry via AFP

Neither side has so far offered no major concessions, and issues like permanent control over Crimea and the four eastern territories remain sticking points for Moscow. 

During the Istanbul meeting, according to WSJ's foreign correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov:

Russia demanded in Istanbul that Ukraine withdraw its troops from four regions — areas that Moscow has been trying to conquer but failed since 2022 — as a precondition for ceasefire. That’s an area twice the size of the country of Lebanon and home to more than a million Ukrainians. Not going to happen.

Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson were annexed in 2022, declared part of the Russian Federation, but Moscow forces still don't have 100% control over them.

The talks in Istanbul lasted fewer than 2 hours and led nowhere, it looks. Russia demanded that Ukraine surrender, Ukraine refused. https://t.co/WR5A5jcI4e

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 16, 2025

And it doesn't look like there was any progress on achieving a Trump and Zelensky-backed 30-day ceasefire. Moscow sees this as a tactic for Ukraine forces to simply rearm and regroup, at a moment they are in dire need of more manpower and artillery. 

President Zelensky has meanwhile been making clear that Ukraine will not surrender its territory as "this is Ukraine's land" - and he isn't so much as ready to even offer Crimea. Zelensky and European leaders are reportedly holding a phone call with US President Trump in the wake of the Istanbul meeting.

They will likely try to convince the US leader that attempts to negotiate an end to the war with Putin are futile. This seems to have been Zelensky's aim all along: getting Washington and Trump back on his side, and securing the unending flow of weapons, cash, and intelligence.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 13:30

A Fraction Of Proposed Data Centers Will Get Built: Utilities Are Wising Up

By Brian Martucci of UtilityDive

The U.S. grid is flooded with data center proposals that will never get built. That’s making it much more difficult for utilities and grid operators to plan for the future.

“Conservatively, you’re seeing five to 10 times more interconnection requests than data centers actually being built,” said Astrid Atkinson, a former Google senior director of software engineering and now co-founder and CEO of grid optimization software provider Camus Energy.

Even relatively short-term data center load growth forecasts are all over the map. 

Last year, RAND Corporation’s “upper confidence” forecast projected 347 GW of AI-sector power consumption by 2030. But Schneider Electric called that prediction “extreme” in a whitepaper on AI’s potential grid impacts last month, which cited more down-to-earth forecasts — under 100 GW — from other reputable observers. 

Schneider’s own 2030 AI power demand scenarios range from 16.5 GW to 65.3 GW, with 33.8 GW the optimal outcome under a sustainable AI framework that balances AI growth with grid stability.

The wild divergence in near-term AI power demand forecasts hints at a fundamental challenge facing utilities, grid operators and power system regulators today: speculative load interconnection requests, or what Bianca Giacobone of Latitude Media in March called “phantom data centers.”

Experts like Atkinson advise power system stakeholders to take utility forecasts, like Exelon’s expectation for 11 GW of “high-probability” data center load over 10 years, with a grain of salt. 

A 2018 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study that compared load forecasts and actual growth for 12 Western U.S. utilities in the mid-2000s and found most overestimated future demand.

But experts say it’s very difficult for utilities to tell in advance which data center interconnection requests will pan out, or how much potential load to discount in the aggregate. This is a problem because, as Giacobone noted, excess requests sap utilities’ limited study resources, cause delays for others in the interconnection queue and distort long-range resource planning, raising the risk of costly system overbuilding. 

Utilities are trying a few tactics to mitigate the risk.  Some have rolled out standardized large-load interconnection processes. Others are asking data center developers for bigger financial commitments upfront. In some cases, utilities have asked state policymakers for help.

A problem of transparency

The phantom load problem is, in part, a problem of transparency. 

Loath to tip off competitors or local NIMBYs, data center developers and their agents conceal land acquisitions and other early development activities behind vaguely-named LLCs and non-disclosure agreements. Developers relentlessly winnow early-stage projects, but not to the point that every publicly-announced proposal is a done deal, Atkinson said.

Microsoft, for example, abandoned up to 2 GW of data center capacity reservations since January, while Tract killed a 30-building Phoenix-area proposal last year amid local opposition.

Even seasoned data center customers like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google propose several times more projects than they’re likely to need due to uncertainty around power availability and permitting at any given site, Atkinson said. Less sophisticated developers abandon proposed projects at an even higher rate, she added.

Accurately assessing future data center power demand could get harder in the near future as lengthy waits for grid interconnection push developers and operators toward behind-the-meter primary power generation sources, Atkinson said. 

Elon Musk’s Memphis-area xAI hub, where its Grok model trains, runs 35 gas turbines behind the meter, according to a lawsuit filed in April by an environmental group. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s former company, Liberty Energy, could eventually deliver 1 GW of off-grid gas-fired generation to data centers and other large industrial loads at a planned business park near Pittsburgh. Data center customers account for about a third of gas turbine manufacturer GE Vernova’s 21-GW reservation pipeline, CEO Scott Strazik said in April.

Zachary Ruzycki, the director of resource planning for Minnesota-based cooperative Great River Energy, said the utility has received “more than a handful” of large-load interconnection requests recently, but he worries about sinking staff time into projects that might not materialize.

“How much work we want to undertake on it is something we’ve been thinking about,” Ruzycki said. 

Still, the potential investment is driving plans for more generation. Great River Energy will use a $812 million federal grant to procure nearly 1.3 GW of renewable power to serve new load in the coming years, CEO David Saggau said in January.

The cooperative isn’t alone in facing this issue. Great River Energy shares its home state with investor-owned utilities like Xcel Energy. Together, Xcel and Great River Energy member cooperatives near the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area have drawn proposals for at least 11 data center campuses since 2020, including one each from Amazon, Microsoft and Meta and three 500-MW schemes from Tract. 

Some requests could be duplicates, but there’s no good way to tell which, Ruzycki said. Of the 11 proposals in or near its territory, only Meta’s had begun construction as of earlier this year, according to the Minnesota Star Tribune.  

“This is a challenge across the industry,”  said Patricia Taylor, director of policy and research at the American Public Power Association. Data center developers are “shopping around both within your community and next door.”

When it’s cheaper, “You’ll buy queue positions all day long”

Some load-serving entities are trying to keep data center power demand expectations in check, according to the Electric Power Research Institute.

Of 25 large utilities EPRI surveyed in September 2024, 48% expected data centers to account for at least 10% of peak load by 2030. Twenty-six percent expected double that share. 

But the EPRI respondents were generally skeptical that all proposed data center load — or even close to all — would materialize. Of the 10 utilities that said aggregate data center requests accounted for 50% or more of present peak load, none expected an actual five-year share above 35% of peak load. That included respondents with the highest proportion of data center requests. 

Utilities take different approaches to derating proposed data center loads, or assuming that they would use less than their proposed nameplate capacity, EPRI found. About 30% of respondents took proposed loads at face value but assumed they would ramp over time. Another 30% derated loads based on apparent project maturity, using benchmarks such as public announcements, land acquisitions, permitting progress, company maturity and signed load-serving agreements. 

Those factors can help determine how “quote-unquote ‘real’ a project is,” said Great River Energy’s Ruzycki. 

”But in a sense, it doesn’t matter [because] we have an obligation to serve,” he continued.  “If they have the land and the ability to build and ramp, they can do that and we have to find the assets to serve them.”

Great River Energy also bills petitioners for the staff work related to vetting large-load requests so the cost doesn’t fall on members. APPA’s Taylor said utilities can protect existing customers by taking substantial deposits for interconnection studies and inking service agreements that ensure data centers pay their fair share for infrastructure upgrades — and even new generation resources — while guaranteeing minimum load. 

Former Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner Allison Clements and former Meta Director of Energy Strategy Peter Freed, in a February op-ed for Utility Dive, argued for a standardized process across the country that could reduce speculative data center requests and shorten interconnection wait times.

The process proposed by Clements and Freed could involve standardized interconnection queues across utilities within the same planning region and anonymized visibility into queued projects’ attributes and status. It could also require developers to meet commercial readiness tests, pay phased fees that increase as projects progress and include a mechanism for removing nonviable projects from the queue.

But even that may not be enough. 

Data center developers are adept at playing utilities off one another to manufacture price elasticity, said Karl Rábago, principal at Rábago Energy and a former commissioner at the Texas Public Utility Commission. 

“The phantom load problem arises because the cost of getting in a queue is lower than the weighted likelihood that they’ll want to use their position,” Rábago said. “When it’s cheaper to buy a queue position than not to use your queue position, you’ll buy queue positions all day long.”

He was also skeptical of some state legislative efforts to address the issue. 

A high-profile Texas bill that would require data center developers to pay some interconnection costs and disclose certain duplicative requests is not specific enough to have much impact, Rábago said.  Instead, he favors a “reverse auction” framework to determine which data center “needs the fewest goodies” to connect to the grid, he said.

Recent moves by three utilities in Virginia, the country’s biggest data center market, hint at a possible path forward. 

This year, Dominion Energy, Appalachian Power and Rappahannock Electric Cooperative all proposed new large-load rate classes that would apply to data centers. Dominion’s and Appalachian Power would require data centers to pay at least 60% and 80% of contracted demand, insulating existing ratepayers, according to the Virginia Mercury. 

Member-owned Rappahannock’s proposal would require new data centers to put up collateral, cover some infrastructure upgrades, pay up to 100% of contracted load and deal directly with special-purpose subsidiaries to protect existing customers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 13:20

Judge Dismisses Charges Against Illegal Immigrants Accused Of Crossing Into Military Zone

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in New Mexico has dismissed the charges against dozens of illegal immigrants who were accused of violating security regulations by trespassing on a military zone along the U.S.–Mexico border, according to court documents filed this week.

Chief U.S. Magistrate Judge Gregory Wormuth ruled that the federal government had failed to demonstrate that the illegal immigrants knew they were entering the restricted New Mexico National Defense Area (NMNDA).

According to court filings dated May 14 and 15, the government argued that it had placed signs in both English and Spanish to declare that the area is a military zone and that any unauthorized entry is prohibited.

But Wormuth stated that this was insufficient to prove that the illegal immigrants knew they were violating security regulations when they entered the areas, as the defendants may have missed the signs.

“As the United States concedes, the NMNDA spans over 180 miles of ‘often difficult and mountainous terrain,'” the judge stated. 

“The mere fact that some ‘signs’ were posted in the NMNDA provides no basis on which to conclude that the defendant could have seen, let alone did see, the signs.”

Assistant Federal Public Defender Amanda Skinner said that Wormuth dismissed the trespassing charges against all illegal immigrants who made initial court appearances on May 15. They still face charges for crossing the border illegally.

The Epoch Times sought comment from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Mexico, which filed the charges against the illegal immigrants last month, but did not hear back by publication time.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Mexico began charging illegal immigrants with violating security regulations for crossing into the restricted military zone on April 28, on top of illegal border crossing charges. At least 339 people have been charged for entering the military zone as of May 9, according to the attorney’s office.

The military zone includes the Roosevelt Reservation, a 60-foot-wide corridor owned by the federal government running along the border in California, Arizona, and New Mexico.

The Interior Department transferred control of nearly 110,000 acres of federal land along the border to the U.S. Army on April 15, granting the military control of the border zone for three years.

The U.S. Northern Command announced on May 1 a second military zone dubbed the Texas National Defense Area, a 63-mile stretch that runs east from the Texas–New Mexico state line in El Paso.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has previously warned that any unauthorized attempt to enter the national defense areas would lead to an arrest.

“Any illegal attempting to enter that zone is entering a military base—a federal, protected area,” Hegseth said in a video message on April 25. 

“You will be detained. You will be interdicted by U.S. troops and Border Patrol working together.”

Hegseth said that this marked only the first phase, as the Defense Department plans to expand military zones along the U.S. border to further strengthen border security.

“If you have attempted to evade, that’s evading law enforcement, just like you would any other military base. You add up the charges of what you can be charged with misdemeanors and felonies, you can be looking at up to 10 years in prison when prosecuted,” he said.

President Donald Trump issued a memorandum on April 11 authorizing the military to take control of the land to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

“Our southern border is under attack from a variety of threats,” Trump wrote in the April 11 memo. “The complexity of the current situation requires that our military take a more direct role in securing our southern border than in the recent past.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 12:40

From BofA:

We initiated our 2Q GDP tracking after the April retail sales print. It moved up two-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking moved up a tenth to -0.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication [May 16th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate by the same amount to +0.1%. Our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate stands at -0.5%. [May 16th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on May 16, down from 2.5 percent on May 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and the release of import and export price indexes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 0.4 percent to -3.0 percent. [May 1st estimate]

RFK Jr. Defends His Comments On Vaccines: "I'm Going To Tell The Truth"

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. defended his recent statements about vaccines during a congressional hearing on May 14.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 14, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“I’m going to tell the truth about everything we know and we don’t know about vaccines,” Kennedy told Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) while testifying before the Senate Health Committee. “I am not going to just tell people that everything is safe and effective if I know there are issues. I need to respect people’s intelligence.”

Several lawmakers expressed concern about Kennedy’s recent comments, which include saying that the protection conferred by the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine wanes over time.

“The result is to undermine faith in the vaccine,” Murphy said.

“It’s kind of like saying, ‘Listen, I think you should swim in that lake, but you know, the lake is probably toxic, and there’s probably a ton of snakes and alligators in that lake, but I think you should swim in it.’ Nobody is going to swim that lake if that’s what you say. I want you to acknowledge that when you say you support the measles vaccine, and then you go out and repeatedly undermine the vaccine, with information that is contested by public health experts, that is not supporting the vaccine.”

Kennedy responded, “If I advise you to swim in a lake that I knew there to be alligators in, wouldn’t you want me to tell you there were alligators in it?

“The reason people have lost faith in this program is that they’ve been lied to by public officials for year after year after year.”

Several outbreaks of measles have appeared in the United States in 2025, including an outbreak in Texas that has spread to hundreds of people. Texas officials say most patients are unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination status.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the administration of two doses of the MMR vaccine is 97 percent effective against measles.

Studies, including a paper from French researchers, have found that the protection wanes slowly over time.

“We’re always going to have measles, as the vaccine wanes very quickly,” Kennedy said recently at a town hall.

He has also said that the MMR vaccine has side effects and that many vaccines on the childhood vaccination schedule have not been tested in randomized, controlled trials against placebos.

“[That] means we don’t understand the risk profile for those products and that’s something that I intend to remedy,” Kennedy told lawmakers on May 14, referring to the Department of Health and Human Services’ announcement that all new vaccines must be tested against placebos before being licensed.

Kennedy testified before the Senate panel and the House of Representatives Appropriations Committee. It was the first time he appeared before Congress since being confirmed in February.

Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) asked Kennedy, who has said his children received the typical vaccines in their childhood, if he had a child today, would he get that child vaccinated with the MMR shot?

“Probably,” Kennedy said. “I would say my opinions about vaccines are irrelevant.

“I don’t think people should be taking medical advice from me. I think if I answer that question directly, that it will seem that I’m giving advice to other people, and I don’t want to be doing that,” Kennedy said, adding that health officials were going to try to outline the pros and cons, or the risks and benefits, of each vaccine.

Pocan tried to get Kennedy to answer the same question for the chickenpox and polio vaccines. The health secretary demurred.

Republicans largely steered clear of vaccines during the hearings. A number of them praised developments under Kennedy, including the banning of some artificial dyes and the focus on cutting costs at the health agency.

“You’ve done more to shine the light on things that average Americans can do to make themselves healthier than almost any secretary that I can recall,” Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) said, “so thank you for that service.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 12:00

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in April were at expectations and starts in February and March were revised up, combined.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 1.7% in April compared to April 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.1% YTD and multi-family up 13.4% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

Charter-Cox $34.5 Billion Deal Leapfrogs Comcast As New Cable Giant

Charter Communications has agreed to acquire Cox Communications in a blockbuster merger that will create the largest cable TV and broadband provider in the U.S., surpassing Comcast.

The transaction values Cox Communications at $34.5 billion, including $21.9 billion in equity and $12.6 billion in net debt and other obligations. According to a press release, the valuation aligns with Charter's enterprise value-to-2025 estimated Adjusted EBITDA multiple of 6.44x. 

Charter, the second largest publicly traded cable company behind Comcast, was up 3% in premarket trading in New York from its Thursday close of $419.57. The Cox family privately holds Cox. 

Charter will acquire Cox's commercial fiber, IT, and cloud businesses and contribute Cox's residential cable assets to Charter Holdings. 

Cox Enterprises will become the largest shareholder of the combined entity's fully diluted shares outstanding with a 23% stake and have seats on the board. 

"This combination will augment our ability to innovate and provide high-quality, competitively priced products, delivered with outstanding customer service, to millions of homes and businesses," Chris Winfrey, President and CEO of Charter, said in a statement.

Winfrey said, "We will continue to deliver high-value products that save American families money, and we'll onshore jobs from overseas to create new, good-paying careers for U.S. employees that come with great benefits, career training and advancement, and retirement and ownership opportunities." 

The combined company will remain headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, and keep a "significant presence on Cox's Atlanta, GA campus following the closing," according to the press release.

The merger with Cox follows Charter's announcement of an all-stock acquisition of Liberty Broadband, with both transactions expected to close concurrently.

Charter expects $500 million in annualized cost synergies within three years of closing the deal. 

Bloomberg added context to the merger, describing it as part of an escalating "turf war" in the telecom industry:

Cable and phone companies have been engaged in an intense turf war, seeking to win over customers in areas that others have dominated. Cable providers have been selling their own mobile phone plans by leasing network access from major carriers. At the same time, phone carriers have been poaching home internet subscribers from cable companies.

The bet is that customers will in the future prefer to buy their internet and mobile phone services from the same provider — a trend referred to as convergence. A combination of Charter and Cox would position them to better compete in that environment by allowing them to bundle offerings and more efficiently invest in infrastructure.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts noted:

"Charter is aggressively marketing its converged mobile fixed bundles at competitive rates to improve subscriber acquisition and retention.

"Regardless, the entire cable sector is being hurt by intensifying telecom competition from both fiber coverage and fixed wireless access."

Axios pointed out:

Some layoffs are expected to result from the merger. Other Cox Enterprises businesses, including Axios and Autotrader, are not directly impacted.

Just like that, the combined entity is set to become America's largest cable TV and broadband provider. 

Recall one of the heirs to the Cox empire is a far-left radical...  

Fergie Chambers is the heir to the Cox Media empire. He is also a devoted Communist and a fan of Mao (see tattoo on his thigh). He is spending his fortune from capitalism on a proletariat Revolution to overthrow capitalism.

How was he introduced to Communism? By a history… pic.twitter.com/V0KeJutqr7

— Xi Van Fleet (@XVanFleet) December 7, 2023

Sigh. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 09:15

5 Takeaways From Supreme Court Hearing On Nationwide Injunctions, Birthright Citizenship

Authored by Sam Dorman and Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court on May 15 heard oral arguments in relation to the Trump administration’s request to lift nationwide injunctions placed on the president’s birthright citizenship order.

The decision could determine how judges can address presidential actions.

During the argument, the justices posed questions about how far lower court judges could go in issuing relief from particular policies.

Solicitor General D. John Sauer told the court that nationwide injunctions exceed judges’ authority under Article 3 of the Constitution.

While members of the Supreme Court have criticized nationwide injunctions in the past, they seemed skeptical that it was appropriate to remove the injunctions in this case.

President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14160, signed on Jan. 20, states that “the Fourteenth Amendment has never been interpreted to extend citizenship universally to everyone born within the United States.”

The executive order has prompted debate over the meaning of the 14th Amendment’s citizenship clause, which states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Here are some takeaways from the arguments, as well as considerations surrounding the Supreme Court’s ruling.

1. No Final Ruling Expected on Constitutionality

The argument stemmed from an emergency request made by the Trump administration to limit three separate nationwide injunctions blocking the president’s birthright citizenship order.

At such an early stage in the litigation, the justices wrestled more with procedural considerations such as the scope of relief rather than the constitutionality of birthright citizenship for illegal immigrants.

However, judges can still consider the likelihood that each side will succeed with its arguments about the more substantive issues. The issue could also reach the Supreme Court again after further deliberation in lower courts, teeing up an opportunity for the justices to make a more definitive ruling on birthright citizenship.

Sauer could have asked the Supreme Court to delve deeper into the constitutional issues, but he did not. Justice Amy Coney Barrett pressed him on this point and asked why he wanted there to be more consideration by lower courts before the justices took on the issue.

“So this one isn’t clear-cut on the merits?” she asked.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said that if Trump’s order is legally wrong, allowing the administration to continue implementing it would be inconsistent with the rule of law.

“It seems to me that your argument says we get to keep on doing it until everyone who is potentially harmed by it figures out how to file a lawsuit, hire a lawyer, etc.,” she said. “And I don’t understand how that is remotely consistent with the rule of law.”

Solicitor General nominee, D. John Sauer, prepares to testify during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill on Feb. 26, 2025. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

2. Several Judges Critical of Trump’s Order

During the May 15 arguments, Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan seemed to think that the administration had misinterpreted the 14th Amendment when it ordered a halt to illegal immigrants’ children receiving birthright citizenship.

“As far as I see it, this order violates four Supreme Court precedents,” Sotomayor told Sauer.

Later, Kagan suggested to Sauer that the administration would continue to lose in defending its policy before lower courts. She was asking what incentive the government would have to appeal the case to the Supreme Court if another judge had not issued a nationwide injunction.

“If I were in your shoes, there is no way I'd approach the Supreme Court with this case, so you just keep on losing in the lower courts, and what’s supposed to happen to prevent that?” she asked.

3. Dispute Over Courts’ Historical Authority

Justice Clarence Thomas seemed the most sympathetic to Sauer’s position and suggested that nationwide injunctions do not have a solid historical basis.

Sauer had argued that the first nationwide injunction was issued in 1963 and that the court had consistently said relief should be limited to plaintiffs.

“So we survived until the 1960s without universal injunctions?” Thomas asked.

Sotomayor, meanwhile, asked New Jersey Solicitor General Jeremy Feigenbaum, “We’ve had universal injunctions in some form—correct?—since the founding.”

Both justices asked about the history of courts issuing orders known as “bills of peace,” which resolve a dispute for multiple parties. Sauer described the practice as similar to a modern class action and different from a nationwide injunction. Sotomayor disagreed with that comparison.

4. Alternatives to Nationwide Injunctions?

Justice Brett Kavanaugh suggested that class actions, or lawsuits in which multiple plaintiffs sue on behalf of a larger group of plaintiffs, could take the place of nationwide injunctions.

If nationwide injunctions were not available in this case, people could file class actions, which could “solve a large part of the problem in a way that complies with the rules,” the justice said.

Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Brett Kavanaugh, and Chief Justice John Roberts attend inauguration ceremonies in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2025. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Kelsi Corkran, an attorney for immigration advocacy groups, disagreed, saying such an approach is “just channeling the problems through a different mechanism.”

Kagan said the state of New Jersey, a litigant in the case, is arguing that without the availability of nationwide injunctions, it could face “administrative costs and ... workability problems” as a result of possibly inconsistent court rulings being issued in different states on the citizenship question.

This could also lead to a “magnet problem” as “everybody moves to the state where the more favorable rule exists,” Kagan said.

5. Difficulties Involved in Suing Over Birthright Citizenship

Jackson said the government’s proposal to curtail nationwide injunctions would make it more difficult for people to sue to vindicate their rights.

“Your argument seems to turn our justice system ... into a ‘catch me if you can’ kind of regime ... where everybody has to have a lawyer and file a lawsuit in order for the government to stop violating people’s rights,” she said.

Sauer disagreed, saying that given the status quo, “the ‘catch me if you can’ problem operates in the opposite direction where we have the government racing from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, having to sort of clear the table in order to implement a new policy.”

“Many of us have expressed frustration at the way district courts are doing their business,” Kagan said.

The current system encourages forum-shopping, she said, referring to plaintiffs choosing to file a case in a jurisdiction where they think that the judge will be sympathetic to their case.

During the first Trump administration, litigants sought favorable rulings by filing in courts perceived to be friendly in San Francisco, but in the succeeding Biden administration, litigants filed in Texas, Kagan said.

“There is a big problem that is created by that mechanism,” she said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 08:55

Single-Family Home Permits Plunged In April, But 'Renter Nation' Returns

A day after homeBUILDER sentiment finally cracked (though still dramatically more 'confident' than homeBUYERS)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and mortgage rates are rebounding higher, Housing Starts and Building Permits expectations were mixed ahead of this morning's print.

The actual data was indeed mixed but both were disappointly below expectations as Starts rebounded just 1.6% MoM (below the +4.0% exp) from the 10.1% MoM collapse last month (small revision higher) while Permits (more forward looking) plunged 4.7% MoM (vs -1.2% MoM)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM drop in Permits since March 2024, dragging the SAAR down tits lowest since July 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

The drop in Permits was largely driven by a huge 5.1% MoM drop in Single-Family apps (multi-family fell 4.4% MoM) - the biggest drop since Dec 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Housing starts were dominated by multi-family unit increases (for the third month in a row) as Renter Nation returns...

• Single-Family down 2.1% to 927K, lowest since July 2024

• Multi-family up 11.1% to 420K, highest since Dec 2023

Interstingly Starts picked up modestly despite the plunge in Homebuilder future sales expectations.,..

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps the most shocking chart - that explains why builders are not building single-family homes is that inventories of unsold NEW homes is surging...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations are not helping...

Source: Bloomberg

So, don't bank on The Fed to save the day.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 08:44

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,361,000. This is 1.6 percent above the revised March estimate of 1,339,000, but is 1.7 percent below the April 2024 rate of 1,385,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 927,000; this is 2.1 percent below the revised March figure of 947,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 420,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 1,481,000 and is 3.2 percent below the April 2024 rate of 1,459,000. Single family authorizations in April were at a rate of 922,000; this is 5.1 percent below the revised March figure of 972,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 431,000 in April.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased month-over-month in April.   Multi-family starts were up sharply year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) decreased in April and were down 12.0% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery.

Total housing starts in April were at expectations; and starts in February and March were revised up, combined.

I'll have more later …

US Futures Rise For Fifth Day In A Row As S&P 6000 Looms

US stock futures are set for a fifth straight session in the green, as US equity funds benefited from their first inflows since the Liberation Day shock, and with 6000 in the S&P now less than a 100 points away. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% after the index closed up 4.5% for the week on Thursday as the latest economic data spurred speculation the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. Nasdaq futures gained 0.4% with Mag 7 leading (TSLA (+1.1%), GOOGL (+0.9%), and NVDA (+0.7%) are outperforming). The powerful rally this week has pushed the tech-heavy equity benchmark into overbought territory, while the S&P closed Thursday at the highest level since February. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 gauge also gained, heading for a fifth weekly advance. The dollar weakened for a second session against major peers, while the yen and Swiss franc gained, and the 10-year Treasury yield was lower after declining 10 basis points Thursday as traders priced in more Fed cuts: bond yields are lower, with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields down by 3.09bp, 3.7bp, 3.5bp, and 2.6bp respectively. Commodities are mostly lower, led by gold while oil reversed earlier losses. Overnight headlines were largely quiet. Today, we will receive University of Michigan Sentiment survey data, where consensus expects a modest bounce (to 53.5 vs. 52.2 prior).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher with the exception of Meta after an equal-weighted gauge of the group fell over 1% on Thursday (Alphabet +1.5%, Tesla +1.1%, Nvidia +0.9%, Amazon +0.4%, Microsoft little changed, Apple +0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%). Charter Communications (CHTR) gains 9.4% after agreeing to merge with Cox Communications in a deal that values Cox at an enterprise value of about $34.5 billion. Vistra (VST) is up 5.1% after it said it executed a definitive agreement to acquire seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Archer Aviation (ACHR) shares rise 5.7%, adding to gains from Thursday following its announcement that the electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft company had been selected as the ‘Official Air Taxi Provider’ for the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
• Doximity (DOCS) drops 18% after the healthcare-software company’s full-year forecast disappointed, with analysts pointing to a cautious tone from the management team on the call regarding the outlook for market growth.
• Globant (GLOB) shares sink 28% after the technology services provider cut full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to a level that undershot analysts’ expectations.
• Pentair (PNR) shares rise 2.2% after JPMorgan upgrades the water-treatment company to overweight from neutral on expectations of potential guidance upside.
• Quantum Computing (QUBT) shares are up 9.7% after the quantum optics technology company reported its first-quarter results.
• Rocket Cos. (RKT) gains 4.4% after ValueAct Capital Management LLC reported a 9.9% holding in the mortgage finance company, according to a new 13D filing with the US Securities & Exchange Commission.
• Take-Two (TTWO) falls 2% as the video-game publisher’s full-year forecast for revenue came up short.
• Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) shares drop 17% after the biotech’s application for its kidney disease treatment Filspari (sparsentan) failed to get priority review status from the US FDA and is set to face an advisory panel.

One month after the nevertrump media hyperventilated about the "US exceptionalism" trade dying, US equities are back in favor following the de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China. Stocks are now trading like last month’s rout never happened, even though uncertainty remains about the effect of tariffs on the US economy and the direction that the global trade war will take in the coming months. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said weekly US equity inflows resumed at $19.8 billion for the first time since Liberation Day. Meanwhile, stocks haven’t been getting rewarded for earnings beats: firms that topped expectations in the first quarter reports saw their share prices rise by less than usual, according to JPMorgan strategists. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he expects the US economy to slow this year but not fall into recession.

“For now, we believe that the path of least resistance is still higher for risky assets,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist at Jefferies International. “We would start turning a bit more cautious around June/July when we expect the hard data start weakening.”

Thursday afternoon brought a deluge of 13F filings, which showed hedge funds adding healthcare exposure and cutting tech over the first three months of the year. Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management liquidated almost its entire listed equity portfolio in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its holdings of financials stocks. 

Traders are also watching negotiations around the US budget with its promise of large tax cuts and the potential impact that will have on the fiscal deficit.  

Elsewhere, Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in a year as the surging yen crushed exports, illustrating its vulnerability even before sustaining the impact of Trump’s tariff measures. Paradoxically, the yen gained 0.2% on Friday to trade around 145 per dollar even as Bank of Japan official Toyoaki Nakamura, the most dovish board member, warned against hurrying to raise the benchmark interest rate.

Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 gauge also gained, heading for a fifth weekly advance as cooling global trade tensions improve investor sentiment and corporate earnings season comes in better than expected. Health care and food and beverage sectors outperform. Among single stocks Richemont rises after reporting a rise in full year sales. Here are the most notable European movers:

• Richemont shares rise as much as 5.5% after the Swiss firm’s jewelry division saw strong growth thanks to demand for its high-end Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels brands.
• Orsted shares rise as much as 2.1%, snapping three days of declines, after UBS analysts say the stock is pricing in a “close to worst case” scenario when it comes to a potential halt order on the Danish company’s two US offshore projects.
• 1&1 shares soar after its parent United Internet submitted a partial offer to acquire as much as 9.19% of 1&1 shares, for a cash consideration of €18.5 apiece.
• Tate & Lyle shares gain as much as 3.1%, among the best performers in the Stoxx 600’s food, beverage and tobacco subgroup, after Citi upgrades the stock to buy from neutral, saying the risk/reward “looks attractive.”
• CVC Capital shares climb as much as 5.4%, to the highest in six weeks, after Morgan Stanley upgrades its recommendation on the alternative investment manager to overweight, seeing scope for recovery after recent underperformance.
• Nibe falls as much as 4.1% after Handelsbanken cut its recommendation on the Swedish heat-pump manufacturer to sell from hold, quoting recent strong share performance.
• Eutelsat shares drop as much as 11% after the satellite operator said on earnings call that it’s “far too early” to discuss the European Union’s revenue commitment to its next-generation low-earth orbit satellites, dampening hope of enhanced government support in the near term.
• Rubis shares fall as much as 3.7% after the French energy solutions firm said Nils Christian Bergene will step down as chairman and a member of the supervisory board, a departure that CIC analysts called a surprise.
• Workspace Group shares fall as much as 11% after the landlord to mostly small- and medium-sized London businesses warned rising vacancies in its portfolio will dent profits.
• Future shares decline as much as 9.2% after the UK specialist publisher said its FY25 organic revenue will face a low-single-digit decline, below estimates.
• Tokmanni falls as much as 14%, the most since last July, after the Finnish retail group missed expectations in its first-quarter report.
• Dino Polska drops as much as 7.5%, most since August, as Poland’s food retailer reported slowing like-for-like sales in 1Q, raising concerns about its business model and triggering profit taking after 42% rally YTD.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a narrow range as the rally sparked by US-China trade talks continued to cool and earnings from Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba underwhelmed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a gain of as much as 0.3% and loss of 0.2%. NetEase was the biggest contributor to the gains, after the China-based video-game company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations. Meanwhile, Alibaba was among the major drags, after its quarterly revenue missed estimates and cloud business disappointed. Key indexes dropped in mainland China, Hong Kong and India, while benchmarks rose in Australia and Taiwan. Goldman Sachs strategists raised their 3-month and 12-month targets for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index to 610 and 660, respectively, from 570 and 620, expecting “moderately higher” returns for the region thanks to improved earnings growth amid a better-than-expected outcome to US-China trade talks.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.2%, declining for the second straight day; it is on track to end the week 0.1% higher; the yen and Swiss franc among the beneficiaries.  

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was lower after declining 10 basis points Thursday as traders added bets on Fed rate cuts; treasuries are richer across the curve with futures adding to Thursday’s gains and 10-year yields dropping back to 4.405% and near 100-DMA. US yields richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve with spreads broadly within a basis point of Thursday close; in the 10-year sector bunds and gilts outperform Treasuries by 2.5bp and 1.5bp so far on the day.

In commodities, gold fell to extend its weekly loss as demand for haven assets waned. Oil prices declined after Iran’s foreign minister cast doubts on the status of US-Iran nuclear talks.

Looking at today's US data calendar, key events includes April housing starts/building permits, import/export price index, May New York services business activity (8:30am), University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and March TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate includes Daly at 9:40pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +0.7%, CAC 40 +0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.4%
• VIX -0.2 points at 17.66
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1228.52
• euro +0.2% at $1.1208
• WTI crude -0.3% at $61.45/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump said he’d set tariff rates for US trading partners “over the next two to three weeks.” BBG
• US Deputy Treasury Secretary Faulkender said he is not concerned about persistent increases in prices, while he added that inflation will return to target levels and they are setting the foundation for the US economy to take off in H2.
• The Trump administration plans to put a number of Chinese chipmaking companies (including memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory) on an export blacklist, but some officials want to delay the move to avoid hurting efforts to strike a long-term trade agreement with China. FT
• Hopes faded for Russia-Ukraine talks set to take place today in Istanbul. The focus now shifts to when Trump may meet Vladimir Putin.
• US President Trump says deals from his trip are worth USD 12-13tln, includes deals already announced and some that will be outlined "very shortly". Will be sending out letters to nations for trade deals soon.
• China approves 10 nuclear reactors, putting the country on pace to surpass the US in nuclear power capacity by 2030. Nikkei
• NVDA is seeing to build a research and development center in Shanghai that would help the world’s leading maker of AI processors stay competitive in China, where its sales have slumped due to tightening US export controls. FT
• Japan’s Q1 GDP falls short of expectations, dropping 0.7% on an annualized basis vs. the consensus forecast of -0.3%, with the shortfall driven by weak consumption and higher imports. Nikkei
• Japan has signaled it is prepared to hold out for a better deal with the US over trade tariffs, pushing for full removal of his 25% duty on imports of Japanese cars rather than risk a domestic political backlash. FT
• The Fed’s Raphael Bostic said in a May 14 interview that he expects the US economy to slow this year but not fall into recession, and reiterated that he sees one rate cut in 2025. BBG
• The cost to ship a container of Chinese-made goods to the U.S. is jumping as importers race to pull cargo across the Pacific during a 3 month trade war truce. Freight rates from China to the US west coast have risen about 8% this week as bookings have boomed. Importers rushing to ship Chinese goods to the US during a short reprieve from higher tariffs may boost freighters. The surprise truce is seen causing a surge in transpacific shipping, Bloomberg Intelligence said. BBG, WSJ
• BofA card spending, week to May 10th: -1.3% (1.0% April average), spending has seen a recovery from the Easter slowdown.

Tariffs/Trade

• US President Trump's administration is reportedly split on adding Chinese chip makers to export blacklists as some US officials fear the move could jeopardise trade talks with Beijing, while the Commerce Department has compiled a list of Chinese companies including memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory to add to the 'entity list' although the timing of the move has been complicated by the recent agreement by China and the US to cut tariffs, according to sources cited by the FT.
• US told Vietnam its trade deficit is unsustainable and a major concern amid tariff talks, according to Vietnam state media.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum spoke with Canadian PM Carney regarding the importance of USMCA in strengthening the competitiveness of the three North American countries, while they also discussed the continuity and strengthening of the seasonal agricultural worker program.
• Greenland's Foreign Minister has suggested that she wants to deepen bilateral ties with the EU, highlighting Greenland's mineral resources as an area for collaboration, via Politico.
• Japan has reportedly indicated that it is prepared to hold out for a better deal with the US, pushing for the full removal of the 25% duty on car imports, via FT.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after the recent soft US data releases spurred Fed rate cut bets, while participants also digested weak data from Japan and earnings reports. ASX 200 was led by strength in miners and outperformance of gold producers after the recent rally in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 initially retreated amid recent currency strength and after GDP data for Q1 showed a steeper-than-expected contraction in Japan's economy, although the index gradually recovered and returned to flat territory as USD/JPY regained some composure and with the weak data effectively narrowing the scope for the BoJ to resume normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with sentiment dampened by earnings releases after Alibaba's results underwhelmed which pressured its Chinese blue-chip tech and ecommerce peers such as Tencent, Meituan and JD.com.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Board Member Nakamura said Japan's economy has recovered moderately, but some weakness has been seen, while he added the economy is facing mounting downward pressure due to the implementation of US tariff policies. Nakamura said the momentum for wage hikes has accelerated but could weaken depending on impact of US tariff policies and noted that it is appropriate to keep monetary policy steady for the time being. Furthermore, he said uncertainty over the economic outlook is heightening, so a cautious monetary policy approach is necessary and hiking rates prematurely when growth is slowing could curb consumption and capex.
• Japan's Economy Minister Akazawa said improvements in job and income conditions are likely to underpin moderate economic recovery, while he added must be mindful downside risk to the economy from US trade policy and the hit to consumption and household sentiment from sustained price rises also becoming a downside risk to Japan's economy.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened modestly firmer across the board, and have traded with an upward bias this morning. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a handful of industries in negative territory. Healthcare takes the top spot, with gains in the sector seemingly broad based. In terms of stock specific stories, Sanofi (+2.2%) gains after it received FDA orphan designation for treating sickle cell disease. Bayer (+3.5%) benefits from an FT report which suggested it is seeking a Roundup settlement.

Top European News

• ECB's Villeroy says "we are not currently in a currency wars situation but rather a trade war situation".
• ECB's Kazaks says a meeting by meeting approach at the ECB is right and notes a lot of uncertainty around trade measures, according to CNBC.

FX

• Dollar is on the backfoot, continuing the pressure seen following Thursday’s disappointing Retail Sales and softer-than-expected PPI data. As a reminder, this led money markets to fully price in two Fed cuts by year-end; currently pricing in roughly 57bps. DXY currently sits in a 100.52-78 range. Further downside for the index will see a potential test of the week’s trough at 100.27 – should that be taken out, 100.00 will be next in focus. Ahead, US Import Prices, UoM Survey and commentary from Fed's Barkin.
• EUR is modestly firmer vs the Dollar, with specific for the Bloc very light today – Final Italian inflation metrics were revised marginally lower but ultimately had little impact on the Single-Currency. Commentary via ECB’s Kazaks and Villeroy this morning has not added too much to the agenda; the former reiterated the need for a meeting-by-meeting approach and highlighted the uncertainty around trade. This morning EUR has climbed back above the 1.12 mark and has traded in a busy 1.1182-1.1219 range.
• JPY is slightly firmer vs the Dollar after choppy price action overnight, which saw USD/JPY initially trickle lower amid initial haven flows into the yen and recent declines in US yields, but later bounced off support at the 145.00 level. USD/JPY was little moved following weaker-than-expected GDP data. USD/JPY currently trading around 145.30 in a 144.93-145.68 range
• GBP is flat/incrementally firmer vs the Dollar and holds just above the 1.33 mark, in a very thin 1.3300-1.3320 range. UK-specific updates have been lacking today. Some focus has been on an FT article which suggested that EU leaders are urging UK PM Starmer to improve the region’s mobility deal – particularly for EU students.
• Antipodeans are the best performers vs the Dollar, nursing some of the losses seen in the prior session. The Kiwi is the best G10 performer today; overnight, New Zealand 1yr and 2yr inflation expectations are both seen higher, which may explain some of the outperformance in today’s session. Do note that the NZD is outmuscling the AUD in the AUD/NZD cross; some traders may be focused on next week’s RBA meeting, where markets widely expect the Bank to deliver a 25bps cut.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1938 vs exp. 7.2085 (Prev. 7.1963).

Fixed Income

• Firmer start to the day as USTs continue the data-induced upside from Thursday with newsflow since a little light and markets largely awaiting updates on numerous geopolitical situations. At the top-end of a 110-10 to 110-20 band. As it stands, on track to end the week almost flat, opened the week at 110-18, despite the marked pressure seen in the first half on US-China progress. Trade developments that sparked notable hawkish action Monday through Wednesday, before being offset by Thursday’s data deluge. Ahead, the docket is comparably light but does feature Building Permits/Housing Starts, Import Prices (factor into PCE) and the prelim. Uni. of Michigan series for May.
• Bunds are in-fitting with USTs, but with action slightly more pronounced as EGBs experienced a marginal rally early doors as European players entered the fray and reacted to the bullish bias of APAC trade. Specifics light. A few ECB officials on the wire but nothing that has fundamentally shifted the narrative. Bunds just off highs in a 130.11-50 confine and, as with USTs, near-enough on track to end the week flat despite a WTD range in excess of 135 ticks.
• Gilts are outperforming slightly, likely on account of the marginal underperformance vs Bunds seen at points this week and as such, the UK is catching up on the final session of the week. As above, Gilts are also set to end the week essentially unchanged, currently just off highs in a 91.84-92.00 band. Resistance at 92.59 from mid-April and thereafter 93.00 before highs from the last few weeks, beginning at 93.59.

Commodities

• A hesitant start for WTI and Brent as geopolitics dominates ahead of the weekend. WTI and Brent traded largely flat through the morning but are currently down by around USD 0.10/bbl, nearing overnight lows.
• In terms of Iran-related headlines, crude prices whipsawed on conflicting media reports yesterday and mixed signals from US and Iranian officials. This morning, Iran's Foreign Minister stated that negotiations will continue as long as the other party remains engaged, maintaining that no formal proposal from the US has been received.
• On Russia-Ukraine, talks are underway in Istanbul, with the Trilateral meeting between Turkey-US-Ukraine supposedly concluded. We are yet to hear the readout from it. Ahead, there will be another trilateral meeting, this time with Russia taking the place of the US.
• Spot gold is continuing losses, pulling back from yesterday’s gains after soft data, lower yields and Fed rate cut bets aided the yellow metal. At the time of writing, the yellow metal trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,205.49-3,252.17/oz range.
• Base metals are softer after the subdued mood in its largest buyer, China, overshadows the positive sentiment in Europe this morning. 3M LME Copper currently rests within, but at the lower-end of, a USD 9,474.9-9,591.42/t range.
• Shanghai Copper warehouse stocks +27.44k/T (prev. -8.60k/T), Aluminium stocks -13.59k/T (prev. -6.19k/T)
• ADNOC Chief says the UAE and the US plan investment of USD 440bln in the energy sector through 2035.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump says he is willing to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin as soon as arrangements can be made; going to take care of Gaza; will make good progress on geopolitical situations in the next two or three weeks In one way or another, will take care of Iran.
• Iranian Foreign Minister says the nation's position is clear and we are ready to build confidence and adopt transparency in our Nuclear Programme in exchange for the lift of sanctions. Not received any agreement proposal from the US; is possible will be informed via a meditator
• Hamas is reportedly holding direct negotiations with the US Administration, according to a senior Hamas official cited by Al Arabiya.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Apr Housing Starts, est. 1363.5k, prior 1324k
• 8:30 am: Apr P Building Permits, est. 1450k, prior 1467k
• 8:30 am: Apr Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.1%
• 10:00 am: May P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 53.5, prior 52.2
• 4:00 pm: Mar Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 112b
• 4:00 pm: Mar Total Net TIC Flows, prior 284.7b

Central Banks

• May 16: Fed’s Barkin Gives Commencement Speech
• May 17: Fed’s Daly Gives Commencement Address

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets continued to advance over the last 24 hours, as weak US inflation data and lower oil prices raised expectations that the Fed would still cut rates this year. By the close, that meant the S&P 500 (+0.41%) had posted a 4th consecutive gain, which now brings its advance since the April low to +18.75%. In fact, the index isn’t far away from a +20% gain that would mark the technical definition of a bull market, and futures this morning are pointing to another modest gain. So it’s been an astonishing turnaround from where we were just over a month ago at the height of the tariff uncertainty.

There were several factors driving the rally, but a critically important one was the US PPI data for April. It showed inflation pressures were much softer than expected, with headline PPI down -0.5% on the month (vs. +0.2% expected). So that marked the biggest monthly decline in producer prices since April 2020 and the Covid lockdowns, and it pushed the year-on-year reading down to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected). Core PPI was also softer than expected, with the measure excluding food energy and trade down -0.1% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), which was the first negative print since April 2020. It also helped broader inflation expectations to move lower, and the US 10yr inflation swap fell -4.7bps on the day to 2.50%, marking its biggest decline in over a month.

With investors feeling less concerned about inflation, they then dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts in response. For instance, the amount priced in by December up +7.1bps on the day to 56bps. And in turn, that contributed to a large rally in Treasury yields across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-9.0bps) falling back to 3.96%, whilst the 10yr yield (-10.5bps) fell to 4.43%.

Those moves got further momentum from the latest decline in oil prices, which added to the sense that inflationary pressures were easing. The move followed comments from President Trump, who said “I think we’re getting close to maybe doing a deal” with Iran. Moreover, Trump posted an NBC news story citing a top Iranian official that Iran would sign a nuclear deal in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. So the newsflow led to growing expectations that oil supply could rise, and Brent crude fell another -2.36% on the day to $64.53/bbl.

The fall in yields came despite comments from Fed Chair Powell yesterday, who indicated that the Fed were reconsidering the language on average inflation targeting in their latest review. For reference, in 2020 they changed their approach to permit a period of inflation above the 2% target, if it followed a period of inflation running beneath target, so that was a significant shift. However, the potential to move back off that again was seen in a hawkish light, as it implied less tolerance for higher inflation in the future, and Treasury yields briefly spiked as the headlines came through.

Nevertheless, the Powell comments weren’t enough to counteract the broader rally, and there was also relief yesterday that the US data continued to point away from a recession. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims remained at 229k over the week ending May 10 (vs. 228k expected), so still in their recent range and not signalling a sharper deterioration. In the meantime, the retail sales data showed modest growth of +0.1% in April (vs. unch expected), which was a slowdown from March, but still not the contractionary territory that might be expected in an outright recession. And with the latest data in hand, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 moved up to an annualised +2.5% pace.

That environment proved to be a strong one for equities on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 up +0.41% on the day. The advance was reasonably broad-based, with 75% of the index moving higher. Defensive sectors outperformed, with utilities (+2.12%) and consumer staples (+2.00%) leading the gains for the S&P 500. By contrast, the Magnificent 7 (-1.09%) ended a run of 5 consecutive gains. Within the Mag-7, Meta fell -2.35% following a WSJ report that it was delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model. In terms of other individual moves, Walmart (-0.50%) lost ground after their earnings, and they warned that prices would go up as a result of the tariffs. And Cisco Systems gained +4.85% following their own earnings after the previous day’s close.

Earlier in Europe, bond markets had also rallied on hopes for weaker inflation, and yields on 10yr bunds (-7.7bps), OATs (-8.5bps) and gilts (-5.2bps) all moved lower. There were similar gains for equities, with the STOXX 600 (+0.56%) closing at a 7-week high, alongside a fresh record for the DAX (+0.72%). That positivity was reinforced by strong UK GDP numbers, with Q1 growth running at a quarterly +0.7% pace (vs. +0.6% expected), and the FTSE 100 (+0.57%) closed above its Liberation Day level for the first time.

Overnight in Asia however, the tone has generally been more negative, with several of the major indices losing ground. Sentiment hasn’t been helped by Japan’s Q1 GDP reading, which showed a larger-than-expected contraction, with the economy shrinking at an annualised -0.7% pace in Q1 (vs. -0.3% expected). So that raised fears about how resilient the economy was, particularly given those numbers were before the Liberation Day announcement in April. Against that backdrop, Japan’s Nikkei fell -0.28%, and elsewhere there’ve been losses for the Hang Seng (-0.76%), the CSI 300 (-0.57%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.52%). That said, there have been some gains, including South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.19%), and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.57%).

Looking forward, the planned US budget reconciliation bill will remain in focus today. Politico reported yesterday evening that today’s planned procedural vote in the House Budget Committee may be in peril due to opposition from fiscally hawkish Republicans to the CBO’s scoring of the bill, and proposed delays to Medicaid cuts. Yesterday our US economists published a report (see here) analysing the details of the tax bill released this week, which they see putting the US on course for a 6.5% of GDP fiscal deficit in the coming years.

In geopolitics, it’s also worth keeping an eye on today’s talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul. These mark the first direct talks since spring 2022, but with Moscow sending a relatively low-level delegation, no immediate progress is expected. Trump claimed yesterday that “nothing’s going to happen” in terms of resolving the war in Ukraine until he and Putin meet.

To the rest of the day ahead, data releases include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May, along with April’s building permits, housing starts, and the import and export price indices. In the Euro Area, we’ll get the March trade balance. And from central banks, speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, the ECB’s Lane, and the BOE’s Lombardelli.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 08:23

Novo Nordisk CEO To Step Down Following Brutal Bear Market

Novo Nordisk announced a surprise leadership shake-up, with CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepping down by mutual agreement with the Board. The move comes amid a sharp downturn in the company's stock in European markets, which has lost half its value over the past year, marking the steepest decline in Novo's history as a public company. The leadership change follows investor concerns over the future of its anti-obesity drug pipeline and competition from compounding pharmacies eroding demand for Wegovy.

"A search for Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen's successor is ongoing, and an announcement will be made in due course," Novo wrote in a press release, adding, "In connection with the change, Lars Rebien Sørensen, chair of the Novo Nordisk Foundation, will join the Novo Nordisk Board, initially as an observer."

Novo praised Jørgensen's eight years at the helm but noted "recent market challenges Novo Nordisk has been facing, and the development of the company's share price since mid-2024."

It appears the collapse in share price is what prompted the company to search for a new CEO:

In light of this, the Novo Nordisk Foundation Board initiated a dialogue with the Novo Nordisk Board on the merits of an accelerated CEO succession and expressed a wish to increase its representation on the Novo Nordisk Board.

Since mid-2024, Novo shares in Copenhagen have plunged 58%, the steepest bear market ever for the publicly traded company, according to trading data from 1990. 

Much of the decline is based on investor concern about the company's ability to compete in the weight-loss market because of the emergence of compounding pharmacies. Plus, the drugmaker's next-generation shot CagriSema has underwhelmed in clinical trial results.

Last week, Novo slashed its full-year guidance because compounded anti-obesity drugs flooded the market. However, Novo pointed to an inflection point in the second half of this year as it plans to crack down on copycat obesity drugs. 

We await Goldman's James Quigley—Novo bull—to weigh in on the leadership shake-up. 

The question becomes whether leadership change is enough to reverse the bear market.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 08:05