Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 166,000 jobs added, down from 233,000 in October.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for November.  The consensus is for 55.5, down from 56.0.

• At 1:45 PM, Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Moderated Discussion, At the New York Times DealBook Summit, New York, N.Y.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surprise on High Side Again in November (pay site).

Improved affordability, and possibly relief from the end of contentious national elections, appeared to bring more consumers into dealer showrooms in November, leading sales to post their biggest year-over-year increase in 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for November (red).
Sales in November (16.50 million SAAR) were up 2.9% from October, and up 6.7% from November 2023.

Sales in November were well above the consensus forecast.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October

• On an annual basis, home prices rose by 3.4% in October and are projected to slow to 2.4% by the same time next year. On a monthly basis, home prices rose just 0.02% from September.

• Chicago beat Miami as the metro with the highest home price gain at 6.4%, compared with Miami’s 6.2%.

• New Jersey outpaced Rhode Island for annual home price growth, recording an 8.1% lift compared with Rhode Island’s 7.5% uptick. Both states reached new highs in October.
...
U.S. home price growth remained almost unchanged in October from the previous month, recording 3.4% year-over year-growth and a 0.02% increase from September. The stagnation highlights the fact that home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country.
...
“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home buying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”
emphasis added

This was the same YoY increase as reported for September.

This map is from the report.

Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in October. The state of Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Jersey (up by 8.1%) and Rhode Island (up by 7.5%).

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.3 million. The number of total separations was little changed at 5.3 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) increased, but layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October; the employment report this Friday will be for November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.74 million from 7.37 million in September.
The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500

A brief excerpt:

After the release of the FHFA house price index for September last week, the FHFA released the conforming loan limits for 2025.

From the FHFA: FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2025

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the conforming loan limit values (CLLs) for mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) in 2025. In most of the United States, the 2025 CLL value for one-unit properties will be $806,500, an increase of $39,950 (or 5.2 percent) from 2024 ...

Note that there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, next year the CLL is $806,500 for one-unit properties in low-cost areas. The four-unit limit is $1,551,250.

For high-cost areas like Los Angeles County, the CLL is $1,209,750 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL) and the four-unit limit is $2,326,875.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed After Last Week's Improvement

The average lender is still able to offer top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates just under 7% for the 4th straight day. There were no major sources of inspiration today, but that will change as the week progresses. Friday's jobs report is especially significant. The same report has had the biggest impact of any economic report on multiple occasions in the past few months. [30 year fixed 6.91%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.45% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.7% in October, down from up 3.8% YoY in September.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 35 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 18 of the 35 cities with the largest declines are in Florida!

And 5 of the 35 cities on the list are in Texas.

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:

Construction spending during October 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,174.0 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,164.7 billion. The October figure is 5.0 percent above the October 2023 estimate of $2,071.1 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending increased and public spending decreased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,676.4 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,664.7 billion. ...

In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $497.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised September estimate of $500.0 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential (red) spending is 4.7% below the peak in 2022.

Non-residential (blue) spending is 0.5% below the peak in June 2024.

Public construction spending is 0.5% below the peak in September 2024.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.4%. Non-residential spending is up 3.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 4.5% year-over-year.

This was above consensus expectations and spending for the previous two months was revised up.

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.4% in November, up from 46.5% in October. The employment index was at 48.1%, up from 44.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 50.4%, up from 47.1%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% November 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage point higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 50.3 percent, down 4.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.8 percent in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the 42.3 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from October’s figure of 44.4 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in November.  This was above the consensus forecast.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 4.4% below the peak for the year (6 weeks ago).
Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 27.1%), and down 17.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). 
Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing!
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of Nov 29th, inventory was at 707 thousand (7-day average), compared to 719 thousand the prior week. 
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 1, 2024

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.2% increase in spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for November.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 9 and DOW futures are down 45 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $68.43 per barrel and Brent at $72.31 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.00 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.25 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.25 year-over-year.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

• New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the October Trade Deficit, the November ISM manufacturing index and November vehicle sales.

----- Monday, December 2nd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.2% increase in spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 16.0 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 16.04 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. 
The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, December 3rd -----
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 7.44 million from 7.86 million in August.

The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. Quits were down 15% year-over-year.

----- Wednesday, December 4th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 166,000 jobs added, down from 233,000 in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for November.  The consensus is for 55.5, down from 56.0.

1:45 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Moderated Discussion, At the New York Times DealBook Summit, New York, N.Y.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, December 5th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $78.8 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $84.4 billion in September.

----- Friday, December 6th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 183,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

There were 12,000 jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 November

Due to the Thanksgiving calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported higher year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 November. ...

17-23 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 59.7% (+20.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$150.49 (+8.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$89.80 (+31.1%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.  Note: Occupancy will be down sharply next week due to the timing of Thanksgiving (the reverse of this week).

From Goldman:

Following [Wednesday]’s data, we have left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.0%. [Nov 27th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. After this morning's personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent. [Nov 27th estimate]

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago)

1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.1%

The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in October. 
The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest rate since the Great Depression).

The unemployment rate is up from 3.4% in April 2023 - and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!
This is a historically low unemployment rate.

2) Low unemployment claims.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Weekly claims were at 213,000 last week.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.
Even though weekly claims have bounced around a little recently, the 4-week average is close to the lowest level in 50 years.

3) Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP has Fallen Significantly

This graph shows household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  
Note this graph is through Q2 2024 was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.

Mortgage debt is up $2.34 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 45.9% - down from Q1 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.

4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate Near the Lowest Level since at least 1979

This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2024, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  
Although mortgage delinquencies are up a little from Q2 2023 - the lowest level since the MBA survey started in 1979 - delinquencies are still historically very low.
Note: The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent but not reported to the credit bureaus).
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process are close to the record low.

5) Household Debt burdens at Low Levels (ex-pandemic)

This graph, based on data from the Federal Reserve, shows the Household Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow).
The Household debt service ratio was at 11.5% in Q2 2024, slightly below the pre-pandemic level of 11.6%.
The DSR for mortgages (blue) has increased recently but is close to the pre-pandemic level.

This data suggests aggregate household cash flow is in a solid position.

Happy Thanksgiving to All!

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 29.2% YoY, but still down 21.1% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 26.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Nov. 23, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 26.5% above year-ago levels

For the 55th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared to the same time last year. The nationwide market is slowly rebounding to pre-pandemic levels of inventory. Buyers currently have far more options than they did a few years ago, but with prices and mortgage rates remaining high, not as many of them are within their budget. New listings showed a much more modest increase, so most of this inventory growth is the result of homes sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—climbed 2.8% this week compared with one year ago

The number of newly listed homes for sale continued to grow this week, the fourth in a row with year-over-year new listing growth over 1.5%. This is an encouraging sign that even amid a high mortgage rate environment, some sellers are willing to list their homes and make a move. We’ve talked extensively about the lock-in effect, where homeowners who secured a low-rate mortgage in recent years are reluctant to move out and give that favorable financing up, and there are only two cures for this issue. The first, lower mortgage rates, doesn’t appear to be coming any time soon. The second, time, is finally starting to take effect, as the simple reality that people eventually have to move will force new homes onto the market even if their sellers don’t love the mortgage rate they’ll get on their next purchase.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 55th consecutive week.  
However, inventory is still historically low.
New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

Excerpt:

Single-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in October, and multi-family serious delinquencies increased.
...

Multi-Family Delinquencies Increased, Fannie Rate Matches Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)
...
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.55%, up from 0.54% September. Freddie's rate is up slightly year-over-year from 0.54% in October 2023.  This is below the pre-pandemic lows.
...

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.52%, unchanged from 0.52% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.53% in October 2023.  This is also below the pre-pandemic lows.

There is much more in the article.

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 report for October:

Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent in October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.4 percent and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods increased less than 0.1 percent and services increased 0.2 percent.
emphasis added

The October PCE price index increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.1 percent YoY in September, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, up from 2.7 percent in September, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2024 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was above expectations, and PCE was at expectations.
Inflation was close to expectations.

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Climbed 2.0% in October, Third Straight Month of Gains

Pending home sales ascended in October – the third consecutive month of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month gains in transactions, with the Northeast leading the way. Year-over-year, contract signings increased in all four U.S. regions, led by the West.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – elevated 2.0% to 77.4 in October. Year-over-year, pending transactions expanded 5.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"Homebuying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales." said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Even with mortgage rates modestly rising despite the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the short-term interbank lending rate in September, continuous job additions and more housing inventory are bringing more consumers to the market."
...
he Northeast PHSI jumped 4.7% from last month to 68.7, up 7.2% from October 2023. The Midwest index grew 4.0% to 77.8 in October, up 1.8% from the previous year.

The South PHSI increased 0.9% to 90.0 in October, up 2.5% from a year ago. The West index edged higher by 0.2% from the prior month to 64.1, up 16.8% from October 2023.
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in November and December.