From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 42,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 25,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rate movements were mixed last week as Treasury yields moved slightly higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. The 30-year fixed rate was mostly unchanged at 6.31 percent and remained close to the lowest level in over a year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite a decline last week, refinance applications are still significantly higher than a year ago. The average loan size for refinance applications was at its highest level in six weeks, as borrowers with larger loans continued to seek ways to lower their monthly payments. Purchase applications declined slightly from a week ago, however, there was slight increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek loan options to help manage challenging affordability conditions.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.31 percent from 6.30 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH

Brief excerpt:

Some data and comments from housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below are tables showing single-family rent trends reported by Invitation Homes (INVH) and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), two publicly traded companies in the single-family rental business.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to Income

Brief excerpt:

One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes.

Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).

And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measure of income.
...
This graph uses the year end Case-Shiller house price index - and the nominal median household income through 2024 from the Census Bureau. 2025 median income is estimated at a 4% annual gain.

By this measure, house prices are 3% below the bubble peak, and about 9% below the recent peak.

There is much more in the article.