Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference

Amid an absence of data to sway their minds one way (or another), it was hardly a surprise that Fed Chair Powell and his pals proceeded down the dovish/easing path once again today, following the market (and President Trump's) lead.

So what will Powell say?

As a reminder, in its preview, Goldman wrote that while the bank does not expect any formal guidance about the December meeting, if Chair Powell is asked, he will likely be comfortable referencing the September dots, which imply a third cut in December; although will likely make reference to the fact they are flying somewhat blind in the absence of macro data... It's hard to be data-dependent when there's no data.

There will also be questions about the end of QT, while Powell will likely address by referencing the recent jump in SOFR rates indicated money market liquidity is turning "scarce" although Powell will hardly use that word. If he does: watch out.

One question that has emerged is whether Schmid's hawkish dissent will embolden Powell to be more hawkish than the market expects and rugpull the market's December rate cut expectations. 

Watch the live press conference here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 14:25

Fed Cuts 25bps, Ends QT As Expected; Two FOMC Officials Dissent

In our preview we said that the Fed would cut 25bps and end QT... and that's precisely what happened.

*  *  *

First, a quick preview of how we got here: 

Since the last FOMC meeting (on Sept 17th), Gold has dramatically outperformed across asset-classes (even with its recent plunge) followed by US equities. Oil prices have tumbled the most while the dollar and bonds have risen in value. Bitcoin is basically unchanged since the last FOMC meeting, having collapsed after reaching record highs intramonth...

The market has grown more dovish since the last Fed meeting, now fully pricing in a 25bps cut today (and is almost certain that December will see another 25bps cut)...

More notably, rate-cut expectations have barely changed since the last FOMC with 46bps of cuts priced in for 2025 and 69bps more priced in for 2026...

Finally, before we get to the meat and potatoes of today's statement, we note that Goldman Sachs models show monetary policy at its most dovish in years...

And bear in mind that financial conditions have never been 'easier'...

So as we detailed in the FOMC preview, the two main questions for traders today is:

1) will the statement/presser provide support for the market's current dovish future take (given the market's anticipation of a 25bps cut, Goldman notes that it would likely be a high bar for the FOMC to change its plan on the basis of alternative data, and in any case the data have not given them any reason to), and,

2) will Powell officially announce the end of QT, as we discussed extensively in recent weeks (here and here), as a result of deteriorating conditions in money markets, the Fed is expected to announce changes to its balance sheet program. Fed Chair Powell suggested that the level of reserves will likely hit an ample level within a couple of months, although as we highlighted, the combination of reserves and reverse repos is now the lowest it has been since 2020 resulting in a creeping increase in the SOFR rate.

Meanwhile, usage of the Fedʼs repo facility has picked up, suggesting that some participants may be growing tighter on cash.

With that in mind, here are the key headlines from the FOMC Statement:

• The FOMC cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, as expected.
   
• The vote was 10-2, with two opposing dissenters (see below).
   
• The Fed announced that QT (aka the run-off of Treasury securities from the Fed’s balance sheet currently capped at $5 billion per month) would conclude on December 1, as also became consensus in recent days as a result of turmoil in funding markets.
   
• There were twp dissenting votes, one from Fed Governor Stephen Miran in favor of a 50-bps cut, and one from Jeffrey Schmid, who voted for no rate cut.

• The Fed statement maintains description of the labor market, noting that “job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August,” adding “more recent indicators are consistent with these developments” and “downside risks to employment rose in recent months”

Here is a statement redline...

... where the key highlights are the following:

• Replacing that economic activity has "moderated" with "expanding at a moderate pace", which is actually a bullish revision.
• Noting that while job gains have slowed "this year", the unemployment rate has edged up but "remained" low and added that "through August, more recent indicators are consistent with these developments."
• On inflation, the Fed added that inflation has moved up "since earlier this year" and remains somewhat elevated.
• On QT, the Fed said that the Committee "decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1", which is a bit later than some had expected, as November had emerged as the target month for QT ending.

In its implementation note, the Fed clarified the details of how QT will end:

"Effective October 30, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.0 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.75 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in October and November that exceeds a cap of $5 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap. Beginning on December 1, roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities.
• Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in October and November that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding. Beginning on December 1, reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons."

Commenting on the statement, BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey was surprised by the “hawkish” dissent and adds that it "may change our opinion about the pace of cuts going forward, but there’s still little in the data to make us shift our opinion about the shape of the yield curve. There’s little in the statement or with the end of QT that’s likely to change the shape of the yield curve."

Jersey continues: “The timing of the decision was a coin flip, and the committee erred on the side of caution. Runoff will continue in November, before the Fed enters ‘net neutral’ on December 1. MBS runoff will continue at current pace and be used to fund T-bill purchases, while Coupon Treasury runoff will be reinvested in full at auction.”

Schmid's dissent prompted more questions, including this one from Renaissance macro's Neil Dutta: "I don’t think it really matters. In a divided Fed the best you can do is string a bunch of 25s out. But, Schmid’s dissent looks more perplexing than Miran’s in my view. After all, Schmid supported a 25bper in September and since then, we have seen inflation come in weaker than expected."

All we can say is Schmid better not have any outstanding mortgages. 

Tradestation strategy head David Russell points to the lack of data as a catalyst, but points out the growing dovish sentiment within the Fed which will only get stronger once Trump replaces Powell: "The Fed is grasping in the dark because of the shutdown, but the rate-cutting trend remains in place. Miran’s aggressive dissent is a reminder that change is coming at the Fed and the new chairman is likely to be more dovish.  The shutdown threatens to weigh on both jobs and consumption, so the bias toward easier policy may increase going forward."

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told BBG TV that “we are going to see a lot of tension going forward because this is a really difficult time. One, we’re flying blind. Two, we’ve got inflation is up and unemployment is edging up as well, and the labor market is slowing. You add all of that together and you get this sort of stagflation width, which is what makes this Fed likely to have more dissents that go in both directions going forward.”

Meanwhile, former Fed vice-chair who currently works at Pimco Richard Clarida, noted that he expects "to see more of this in the remainder of Powell’s term for sure. If you just looked at the dots, you have a pretty divided committee in terms of the case for preemptive cuts from here, with inflation at 3%."

Peter Boockvar at the Boock report goes one further and writes that while there was no real surprise, "the Schmid dissent makes me more confident that Jay Powell is going to push back on a December cut being the lay up the markets think it is."

And while Schmid dissent was a bit of a surprise, the bulk of the statement was largely in line with expectations, and as a result stocks have barely budged...

.. while 10Y yields and the dollar are fractionally higher ahead of Powell's presser which begins at 2:30pm.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 14:03

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting, and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
emphasis added

University Of Colorado TPUSA Student Leader Attacked After Antifa Posted "Hit List"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

As Democratic leaders like Rep. Dan Goldman (D, N.Y.) insist that Antifa does not exist as a group, two Antifa groups — Front Range Antifa and Colorado Springs Antifa — put out a hit list poster on a University of Colorado sophomore and leader in Turning Point USA. He was promptly attacked by a person in the signature Antifa black outfit on roller blades who used a hockey stick to mete out the punishment.

According to a press release, Boulder Police are looking for a suspect accused of attacking a 19-year-old Turning Point USA student leader near the University of Colorado, Boulder on Thursday evening. The attacker is suspected to be an Antifa member and to have followed the victim in the premeditated attack.

The suspect is described as dressed in “all black clothing, a black ski mask, and had a green Gatorade bottle with an orange top in his back right pants pocket. He was skating with a hockey stick. The suspect fled the scene after the victim called 911, and Boulder Police and CU Police officers searched the area but did not locate him.”

Police added:

“In the interest of transparency, detectives are also confirming that they are aware that the victim was the subject of some social media posts and a digital flyer circulated by others prior to last night’s incident. Whether these played a role in the reported assault is part of the investigation, and police are not commenting further on this finding.”

The Antifa flyer accused the sophomore of being “an active member” of “neo-Nazi organizations” and is “responsible for white supremacist, antisemitic, and anti-LGBTQ vandalism on campus and across Boulder,” and also “participated in a white supremacist boxing tournament.” The Boulder Students for a Democratic Society reportedly shared the flyer on their social media. They encouraged followers to “share widely” and tag the school to notify them of a “Nazi activist on CU Boulder campus.”

The TPUSA student was not seriously injured, but the point was made by Antifa that any critics can be tracked down and attacked.

Recently, in a debate with my colleague Professor Mary Ann Frank on free speech, I objected when she repeated the often-used claim on the left that “if you oppose Antifa, you are by definition a fascist.” I noted that many in the free speech community have been threatened by this group, which is the most violent, anti-free speech movement in the United States.

At the same time, Democratic leaders are ramping up denials of the very existence of Antifa as a group in an effort to deflect criticism for their own increasingly rage-filled rhetoric at a time of rising political violence.

Recently, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) claimed that “nobody” knows what the left-wing terrorist organization Antifa is and that it does not exist. However, he previously promoted the “Antifa Handbook” in 2018 and praised the group as terrifying Trump. Now, however, he has joined the chorus of Antifa denials as political violence rises around the country.

As I previously wrote, it is reminiscent of how, roughly seventy years ago, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover famously declared, “There is no organized crime in America.” Hoover’s stubborn denial of the existence of the mafia continued despite ample evidence to the contrary, from arrests to congressional testimony.

Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) seemed to morph into Hoover before our very eyes, including a posting in which he challenged anyone to “name one member of ‘Antifa.’” The Justice Department then named two in another criminal prosecution of Antifa members.

Former House Judiciary Chair Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) was widely ridiculed for denying the existence of Antifa.

Others on the left have joined Goldman in this absurd claim. Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel committed part of his monologue to assure viewers that Antifa is no more than a mythical “chupacabra.” “You understand there is no Antifa,” he said. “This is an entirely made-up organization.”

I have testified about Antifa before Congress, published columns on the organization for over a decade, and wrote a book discussing Antifa. I did oppose declaring Antifa a terrorist organization due to free speech concerns, but I also know that it is very real.

By design, Antifa avoids typical leadership hierarchies and organizational structures. Antifa was first created in the 1920s, associated with the Weimar-era German communist group Antifaschistische Aktion.

Many protesters belong to Antifa groups that have names like “Rose City Antifa” and offshoots like Love and Rage and Mexico’s Amor Y Rabia. Antifa members have been elected to the French and European parliaments.

Law enforcement officials, like former FBI Director Christopher Wray, have long debunked deniers like Goldman. “Antifa is a real thing,” said Wray.

Ironically, when many on the left are not denying its existence, they are rallying their members or actually selling Antifa merchandise. As noted above, former Democratic National Committee deputy chair Keith Ellison — now the Minnesota attorney general — proclaimed that Antifa would “strike fear in the heart” of Trump.

His own son, Minneapolis City Council member Jeremiah Ellison, declared his allegiance to Antifa in the heat of the protests this summer.

But, with Antifa violence on the rise, Democratic leaders have gone back to denying its existence even as Antifa deploys its signature black hoodies and masks.

The Colorado case shows just how real, violent, and organized this group is in the United States.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 13:40

Truck Hauling COVID, Herpes-Infected Monkeys Overturns

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

An aggressive monkey infected with COVID-19 and other diseases was on the loose in Jasper County, Mississippi, on Tuesday after a semi-truck carrying 21 primates overturned while transporting them from Tulane University to an out-of-state testing facility.

All 20 of the other infected rhesus monkeys were destroyed after the accident, according to the Jasper County Sheriff’s Department.

“We are continuing to look for the one monkey that is still on the loose,” the sheriff’s department reported on Facebook. “We have been in contact with an animal disposal company to help handle the situation.”

The monkeys weighed about 40 pounds each. They also carried hepatitis C, herpes, and COVID, but are not infectious, according to authorities.

The accident occurred at about 2 p.m. local time on Interstate 59 near mile marker 117, about 86 miles east of Jackson, Mississippi, near Heidelberg. The truck was headed to Florida, according to officials.

The sheriff’s department warned residents living around the area of the accident to not approach the monkeys.

“They do pose potential health threats and are aggressive,” the department posted.

The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks was on site with local law enforcement.

Tulane University was notified by authorities.

The university released a statement Tuesday night, saying the monkeys were not infectious.

“Non-human primates at the Tulane National Biomedical Research Center are provided to other research organizations to advance scientific discovery,” Tulane University said in a statement. “The primates in question belong to another entity and are not infectious.”

The sheriff’s office said the truck driver told authorities the monkeys were dangerous and posed a threat to humans.

“We took the appropriate actions after being given that information from the person transporting the monkeys,” the sheriff’s office said Tuesday night. “He also stated that you had to wear [personal protective equipment] to handle the monkeys.”

In 2020, the university received an anonymous $1 million gift to establish a fund for emerging research in infectious diseases. The money was meant to be used to support the institution’s research and provide immediate impact in the race to find a vaccine for COVID, according to the university’s school of medicine.

This is the second time research monkeys have escaped in the past year in the United States.

Late January saw the recapture of 43 monkeys that escaped from a South Carolina research facility. Residents were warned to secure their doors and windows until the monkeys were captured.

The animals broke loose from Alpha Genesis Primate Research Center in Yemassee, South Carolina. The last of them was recovered in January after living in the woods for two months. Rescuers tempted them back into captivity with peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, according to authorities.

The research facility—known locally as “the monkey farm”—breeds monkeys for medical research.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 13:00

Major Disruptions Reported Across Key Internet Services: Downdetector

A sudden spike in internet disruptions has been reported across major websites and services, according to Downdetector. 

Users are reporting outages at Google, Amazon.com, AWS, Microsoft (Azure, 365, Store, Teams, Entra), the XBOX network, Comcast's xfinity, Starbucks, and Alaska Airlines, to name a few. 

Microsoft announced they are investigating reports of issues with 365 services. 

According to reports there are ongoing outages at AWS' US-East-1 region, and is possibly related to an Oct. 20 outage. Further confirmation is needed. 

Developing...

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 12:35

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy Warns Of Nationwide Flight Delays Amid Government Shutdown

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Flight delays throughout the country could increase as more and more controllers call in sick over their first full missed paycheck due to the ongoing government shutdown, officials warned on Tuesday.

National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) President Nick Daniels also said that many air traffic controllers have temporarily taken on second jobs, citing living expenses such as housing, child care, food, and gas as their primary concerns. That number will increase the longer the shutdown continues, he said.

“This job is stressful enough,” Daniels said Tuesday at La Guardia International Airport in New York.

“We go to work day in and day out and make thousands of decisions. We do it five days a week. Most of us actually do it six and five is hard enough, and we do it in 10 hours a day. Now, you add in the fact that we had a partial paycheck already and we missed a full paycheck.”

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)—already short approximately 3,000 controllers who routinely work six-day, 10-hour shifts—has reported delays as a result of staffing gaps.

The FAA limits landings and takeoffs amid shortages, causing disruptions that last from 30 minutes to more than two hours long. Staffing shortages can even result in temporary ground stops.

Aviation data shows no sharp spike in overall delays, despite the government shutdown beginning Oct. 1.

Analytics firm Cirium determined that about 80 percent of flights at 14 major U.S. airports were on time this month, in line with historical patterns where approximately 20 percent of flights face delays longer than 15 minutes for various reasons.

Although a two-hour staffing-related ground stop at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on Sunday caused numerous delays, Cirium data shows 72 percent of LAX flights departed on schedule that day.

Though Duffy and Daniels shared concerns over the overburdened workforce of about 30,000 air traffic controllers, they downplayed the risk of a strike.

“Air traffic controllers have to have 100 percent of focus 100 percent of the time,” Daniels said.

“And I’m watching air traffic controllers going to work. I’m getting the stories. They’re worried about paying for medicine for their daughter. I got a message from a controller that said, ‘I’m running out of money. And if she doesn’t get the medicine she needs, she dies. That’s the end.’”

Controllers held demonstrations at 20 airports nationwide, distributing leaflets calling for an end to the shutdown.

“We’re talking to our coworkers about how to get zero-interest loans,” Mike Christine, National Air Traffic Controllers Association’s (NATCA) eastern regional vice president, told Reuters.

New York-area controller Joe Segretto said the situation makes an already tough situation more difficult for trainees in a high-pressure line of work. The shutdown has disrupted hiring and training, contributing to the ongoing staffing shortage. The systems used by air traffic controllers are also dated, as the Government Accountability Office (GAO) underscores broader risks from aging ATC systems and sluggish modernization efforts in the sector.

“The pressure is real,” Segretto said. “We have people trying to keep these airplanes safe. We have trainees—that are trying to learn a new job that is very fast-paced, very stressful, very complex—now having to worry about how they’re going to pay bills.”

Daniels echoed this in a statement posted to the NATCA website on Oct. 24.

“The shutdown is adding stress to air traffic controllers and their families,” he wrote.

Duffy also said that the shutdown, now in its 28th day, has led to students dropping out of the air traffic controller academy in Oklahoma City, adding that it will therefore be harder to close the staffing gap at airports. He said younger controllers might choose a different career path because they can’t go without pay.

“This shutdown is making it harder for me to accomplish those goals,” Duffy said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 12:20

 

 

At The Money: Monetizing Dirt with Brandon Zick, Ceres Fund (October 29, 2025)

Land is more than just a place to build a house, commercial building, or farm. Real assets can be monetized through Mineral and gas rights, solar and wind, recreation, and even AI.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Brandon Zick is Chief Investment Officer of Ceres Farmland Fund (now part of Wisdom Tree); the fund owns and manages about $2 billion in agricultural land assets

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

Masters in Business (coming soon!)

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Have you ever thought about what makes land valuable? It’s much more than just a place to build a house or commercial building or place a farm. Real assets have become increasingly popular, with access through alternatives such as private equity funds.

I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, I’m going to discuss alternative land-rights investing.

To help us unpack all of this and what it might mean for your portfolio, let’s bring in Brandon Zick. He’s the Chief Investment Officer at Ceres Farmland Fund. Managing about $2 billion in Ag assets. Ceres not only looks at farmland, but a slew of additional rights that can help monetize dirt, as Brandon likes to say. Ceres was recently purchased by WisdomTree Investments. And full disclosure, I’m also an investor in Ceres through my own personal investing.

Brandon, you’ve been investing in and around farmland for decades. You grew up on a farm. What makes this kinda land a compelling real asset?

Brandon Zick: Well, thanks Barry. I think when you look at farmland, one of the things that’s so interesting is just what, what are the optionality buckets that come with land?

When we buy farms, generally we’re thinking of this is going to be a farm for the long term. But, when you own the real estate, when you own the dirt, you have a lot of optionality starting with mineral rights.

That’s something that on the family farm, I grew up at Northeastern Pennsylvania, no one knew what Marcellus Shale was. But over time, there’s been a tremendous amount of value created through those mineral rights, well above the farmland value. And when you think about other things that when you buy a farm, in many cases there’s, there’s timber on the property that could be harvested selectively over time. Opportunities to lease out land for hunting and other sorts of recreation to generate revenue. And then you start thinking about other optionality that can come too.

Barry Ritholtz: Well, before we go to other optionality, let’s. Let’s spend a little time with each of those. So when you say mineral rights and you are referring to Marcellus shale, which is natural gas made accessible by fracking, you’re not giving up the farm because of the fracking technology.

Natural gas companies and oil companies can access that from a single point in the corner of the farm without. Disrupting the farmland and they could go literally miles down to access how, how significant, how valuable. Are those natural gas leases?

Brandon Zick: It depends on, on the area specifically, but yeah, the great thing is that you’re not strip mining a property. To your point, you can access it from a corner of the property or even lease it without any service intrusion on your property. They can even access it from a neighbor’s property who would allow that.

And in the Marcellus shale region, you had land that. Probably was, would’ve transacted almost any acre for 1500 to $2,000 an acre. And then it was generating four or $5,000 per acre in revenue per year.

So that’s completely changed. Even within our portfolio, you don’t see any farms purchased in. Pennsylvania because of the Marcellus and Utica Shale, there’s so much cash flowing around that land just isn’t available at an attractive price from a farmland investment standpoint.

Barry Ritholtz: Let me ask you a naive question about this. How do I as a farmer maintain my mineral rights if the adjacent farm? Is sucking the natural gas out of the ground. Doesn’t my natural gas then flow into that vacuum? How do you manage around that?

Brandon Zick: They try to put them together into units so that that doesn’t happen. And there are rules around what you can and can’t do, especially with these, as opposed to vertical wells that would be on one property and depending on where it was on the property, you might actually be extracting from the neighbors without paying them. With these horizontal wells to go underneath, there are requirements that you have to be paid.

You do see an interesting dynamic in Pennsylvania and New York where it’s not allowed in New York State, but if you own a farm on the Pennsylvania side of the highway there, you’re definitely generating a lot of revenue. And there could be an argument that maybe some of that’s coming from across the way, but that’s where regulation probably doesn’t really meet up with the reality.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about some other sorts of leases. That farmland can generate revenue from. You mentioned hunting. What do you put up a gate and charge people on the way in how do you charge fees for hunters and other recreational users if you own a couple hundred or a couple of thousand acres of prime land?

Brandon Zick: Typically it’s in the off season when the crops are off the field, but hunting in the Northeast and the Midwest is something that I didn’t grow up doing, but. You know, it’s a way of life for a lot of people and everyone wants to have a specific place that they can go to to hunt their own land, A private place to hunt.

And if you don’t own land that comes through the rental market, and there is a robust rental market. When you drive through, rural areas, you’ll see posted signs on trees saying this is like, you’re not allowed, no trespassing. Typically it’s landowners or hunters who are paying for those rights who are posting that.

We go through third parties that will require insurance. There’s a lease being paid and once someone’s paying – and paying for the insurance – they’re enforcing the boundaries, right? Such that we don’t have to, which is great.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about other leases. Renewable energy. I know you guys are big with wind turbines. The president may not love those, but farmers sure heck seem to like it. What, what are the economics of putting up a wind turbine on a farm?

Brandon Zick: Wind has been around now for quite a while. You’ve seen 30 years worth of wind farm construction, and it’s very incremental in nature to the farm. It could add anywhere from 20 to 40 or 50 basis points of income, depending on the property, which, and it takes up a very small footprint.

Barry Ritholtz: So you’re still farming, you just have a couple of big turbines in the corner?

Brandon Zick: That’s exactly true. So, you know, I think when people started doing it, they thought, well, this is essentially free money, as long as you’re fine with looking at wind turbines, which some people like, some people don’t. But it was incremental. And it was meaningful enough to farmers because they were still farming those properties. The thought process around that has changed a little bit. They’re much more difficult to permit now because not only do they take up a huge footprint, a large wind farm could take up a very large footprint.

So anywhere from 20 to 30,000 acres, there’s a lot of neighbors involved there. And there’s also people who fight those wind farms on behalf of migratory birds. So, uh, the, I think they’re much more difficult to permit now.

What you tend to see on the solar side, which is significantly different, is much higher impact on the land. They’re taking up the majority of the footprint, so you’re not continuing to farm. The revenue has to be not just incremental, it has to replace the farm income and be transformational. What you tend to see on the solar side is, revenue that could be anywhere from three to five times the total return of farmland plus wind. It’s much more meaningful. And you can also do it on a much smaller footprint. Whereas you might need those 20 or 30,000 acres for wind, for solar, you can do it on 1500 to 2,500 acres. So many fewer neighbors. Maybe just one landowner.

Barry Ritholtz: Another naive question. Migratory birds and wind turbines. How hard would it be to embed . . . you’re generating electricity to embed some form of light, even something in a range that’s specific to birds that maybe doesn’t disturb humans or planes, or even just put a little high-frequency sound cue. You know, you’re spinning these blades through the air. It should be easy to generate some sort of noise. And I know there are lots of frequencies that don’t disturb humans. The dogs aren’t gonna like it, but is it that really that difficult of a problem to solve?

Brandon Zick: It seems like it hasn’t been solved yet, so someone might be on it, but this could be an idea for you.

Barry Ritholtz: That’s my gift to the wind farming and land owning community. Just put a couple of reflectors up on the edge of the blades and the birds will be able to be able to see it.

We’ve talked about solar, we’ve talked about winds. What about projects like biogas? Is that a significant source of potential revenue?

Brandon Zick: As a landowner, maybe not as much, but we have farm tenants that own dairy farms, that they have anaerobic digesters that are you know, great for them. They can use some of the waste-product from the cows and turn it into green energy. So that’s some, and sell it back into the grid. So that’s something we’ve seen a lot of in states like Wisconsin,

Ohio, Michigan, New York State. I think that’ll continue to grow because it seems like the dairy industry’s continuing to grow, which means more opportunity to do that.

Barry Ritholtz: This is a very, uh, heavy protein cycle of how people are consuming food, less sugar and carbs, a whole lot more protein, or at least that’s what it seems like.

You mentioned timber. I know that there’s a very specific form of agricultural husbandry with harvesting trees, planting, it’s a very long term process. You’re thinking in cycles of 10, 15, 20 years. How significant is timber?

Brandon Zick: Timber’s a huge asset class specifically, you know, in parts of Canada, Northern Michigan, and then in the southeast. It’s huge in terms of, hardwoods and pulp woods that’s been huge in an institutional asset class or an investment class for a long time now. And you tend to see these really large owners owning hundreds and hundreds of thousands of acres selling to those very large end users. So that is a little bit of a different beast.

It’s a very well developed investment structure where you tend to see maybe a little more nuances around some of the very high value hardwoods, so black walnuts and things like that. But that’s something that I don’t think is really scalable. The way that some of the large timber investments currently are.

Barry Ritholtz: What about various conservation programs and things like carbon credits? How significant are those?

Brandon Zick: There was a lot of noise around carbon sequestration and credits associated with that. Maybe two or three years ago, and we took a hard look at it because we own so much real estate and the idea of regenerative ag being great for the land and being able to benefit from that with a payment cycle was very interesting to us.

What we found was he strings attached – and in many cases, farmers were already doing a lot of these practices. The people that we worked with, they were already using cover crops. The question is, can you get paid for that in a way that doesn’t attach strings, that jeopardize things later on.

Barry Ritholtz: What, what are cover crops?

Brandon Zick: Cover crops would be, so once your, uh, crop is harvested, you’re planting a second crop there to prevent erosion. To maintain nutrients in the soil. So winter wheat, when people plant wheat genera, that is a cover crop. That they’re deciding in the spring, did it winter over well enough that they’re gonna harvest it, or are they gonna just leave it there and then eventually kill it and plant another crop into it?

It helps prevent erosion. Soil erosion helps maintain nutrients and moisture in the soil. So cover-cropping is a great form of regenerative ag or sustainable agriculture that’s been around for a long time. And if they don’t harvest it, and, and we talked earlier about some of the shows I watch like Clarkson’s Farm and, and Harry’s Farm. They just essentially run the combine through it, shred it, and then, um, yeah, they can till it under plant, just put it right in there. And that becomes a resource for the next crop when it comes in.

Brandon Zick: Yeah, exactly. More nutrients in the soil. So when we looked at those carbon credits, we thought, well, the land is the only means of production for generating this credit.

The landowner and the farmer should probably get a bigger portion of the credit than the person who’s transacting. And in a typical Wall Street way, that’s not how it works. So we have not been a big mover on the carbon sequestration side because we don’t think it’s a real benefit to landowners financially.

Maybe from an agronomy standpoint, but if they’re doing it anyway, you don’t need to sign a contract. So as we think about that, you know, conservation in terms of payments. You need a special structure to really benefit from that. There are folks that sell conservation easements. That’s not something we do, but there is a, a group around that.

One of the things that we’ve taken a harder look at is wetlands banking because, uh, when there’s development going on, specifically in the Midwest, a lot of industrial development. As departments of transportation expand highways, there are always wetlands to mitigate. There are a number of developed markets for creating a wetlands bank and then selling credits into that for development. And that’s something we’ve been taking a hard look at in states like Michigan and Wisconsin.

Barry Ritholtz: Let, let’s talk about the use case for farmland that is the single biggest shocker to me. Artificial intelligence! What’s going on with these big data centers that seem to be popping up everywhere?

Brandon Zick: They seem to really be targeting areas with great power, resources and capacity on the grid, on the electric side, natural gas lines or natural gas-fired power plants close by, fiber optic networks that are close by, and then access to water for cooling, whether it’s groundwater or otherwise.

It seems like in the Midwest there’s been a huge push into this. So the old Rust Belt is done and there’s new manufacturing coming in, and data centers seem to be the highest value that’s being built and it’s being built at scale by a number of different players out there now. It just seems as though land that you might have said 10 years ago, “Well, that was not the best land because it has a transmission line running through it now. That’s like being right next to the exit on the interstate. It’s a, a huge bonus for that land.

Barry Ritholtz: When you say big players, I’m thinking Microsoft, Google, Amazon, who are the big players in this space?

Brandon Zick: Yeah, those are the groups, as well as Meta that they’re, they have a seems like a real thirst for these single-user data centers and, uh, they tend to target the places those groups tend to target the places that are the most attractive and they’re the most aggressive in trying to put them under contract.

Even where we’re based in South Bend, Indiana, there’s two very large data center projects going on now. One by Amazon, one by Microsoft that are transforming the area, and I don’t think they’ll be the last ones.

Barry Ritholtz: There are a variety of different land use options that can either generate revenue or drive appreciation. Did I forget any? Did we miss anything? Those are a lot of different things.

Brandon Zick: Those are the big ones. In traditional manufacturing distribution centers, these are things that have been happening, at least in the Midwest now for generations, and it just continues.

The more the economy continues to grow. That’s one area where maybe farmland is a little more levered to the economy for some of these non-farm uses because of that. And these tend to be multiples of anywhere from five to 10 to 20X farmland value. So it can be very meaningful in the market.

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, there are a number of things that make land valuable. Sure. It’s a place to build a house or a commercial building or to farm to grow crops. But real assets have become increasingly valuable due to things like water rights, solar, wind, mineral rights, and now artificial intelligence data centers. It’s a fascinating development and they ain’t making any more land, so this is likely to keep staying popular, in the future.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to at the Money On Bloomberg Radio.

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

 

 

The post At The Money: Monetizing Dirt appeared first on The Big Picture.

Venezuela Takes Action Against Trinidad & Tobago Over Hosting US Warship

Venezuela considers Trinidad and Tobago's cooperation with the US military as the Trump White House prepares for possible military action against the Caracas government to be a hostile act.

This after on Sunday the USS Gravely, which is outfitted with guided missiles, arrived in Trinidad to conduct joint exercises with Trinidad’s navy, but which was seen as a deep provocation by Caracas. 

Via Reuters

For starters, Venezuela's vice president Delcy Rodriguez said that key energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago have been effectively canceled.

"Rodriguez, who is also Venezuela’s minister of hydrocarbons, said she would ask President Nicolas Maduro to withdraw from a 2015 agreement that enables neighboring countries to carry out joint natural gas exploration projects in the waters between both nations," AP detailed. After this, President Maduro declared, "I have approved the measure."

The USS Gravely is actually one of the very US naval vessels which has been involved in the campaign to destroy alleged drug trafficking speedboats off the Venezuelan coast.

"The prime minister of Trinidad has decided to join the war mongering agenda of the United States," Vice President Rodriguez said on national television Monday.

By Tuesday, Venezuela declared Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar to be persona non grata amid the escalating tensions.

Venezuela’s National Assembly quickly voted to impose the measure against Persad-Bissessar, formally barring her from entering the country.

STATEMENT: Venezuela denounces military provocation by Trinidad and Tobago in coordination with the CIA to provoke a war in the Caribbean pic.twitter.com/kS0EpaSGGT

— Camila (@camilapress) October 26, 2025

But interestingly Persad-Bissessar hit back, telling AFP, "Why would they think I would want to go to Venezuela?"

A mere seven miles of ocean lies between Trinidad and Venezuela at their closest point, but the Trinidad government is among the few Caribbean leaders to be openly supporting the major US military campaign in the region.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 12:00

CAPE Valuations: Does Nvidia Overstate Its Ominous Warning?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As equity valuations approach the record highs of 1999, investors are growing anxious. This unease is partly driven by the media issuing grim warnings, often based in part on CAPE valuations. Consider the following headlines and their summaries.

• The AI valuation bubble is now getting silly – The Guardian (Oct 8, 2025)

  • This article warns that concentration risk in the “Magnificent 7” is extreme. It notes the CAPE is at a dot-com bubble peak, suggesting that when the AI bubble bursts, there will be few places to escape the fallout.

• Extreme caution needed’: Why the Wall Street Boom Might End in Tears – Yahoo Finance (Oct 7, 2025)

  • This piece highlights that the CAPE ratio is more than double its long-term average, indicating lower returns ahead. It points out that extreme valuations have led to periods of weak returns or sharp corrections.

• Famed Warren Buffett Metric Shows Stock Valuations in Dangerous Territory – Business Insider (Oct 1, 2025)

  • This article notes that the CAPE ratio is near its highest level ever. It cites Fed Chair Powell, who called the market “fairly highly valued,” and highlights that 19 out of 20 Bank of America valuation measures are also historically elevated.

The graph shows the S&P 500 and CAPE since 1920. Given how the market performed after the prior two CAPE peaks (1999 and 1929), it’s not surprising to see headlines like the ones above that are fearful.

Instead of assuming that the CAPE ratios of 1929 and 1999 are comparable to today, it is helpful to recognize how Nvidia and a few other big stocks are skewing the CAPE, and what that may mean for the rest of the S&P 500.

First, we provide a brief overview of CAPE and its pros and cons. 

What Is CAPE?

CAPE, or the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio, is a valuation tool based on long-term earnings trends. It differs from most valuation ratios in that it uses 10 years of earnings. Most popular valuation measures use the last year of fundamental data.

The benefit of the longer earnings lookback is that the model forms more accurate valuations based on secular trends and is much less influenced by short-term or one-time events that have little impact on future earnings growth.  

Some argue against the CAPE logic, claiming that past earnings trends are not indicative of future trends. We agree that for specific stocks, this is undoubtedly the case. However, as we show below, there has been a strong correlation between the earnings of the last ten years and those of the following ten years.  The orange and blue lines representing forward and past earnings are close to parallel. Any variance in them can be explained by the oscillating annualized EPS growth rate in green. As shown, it wavers between 4% and 8%.

Bottom line—using ten years of prior earnings has thus far proven to be a reasonable estimate of future earnings. Therefore, CAPE is a good measure to compare valuations over time.

CAPE – Long Term vs Short Term Return Forecasts

Using CAPE to estimate future returns is like betting on football games. According to Chat GPT, the odds of an NFL team winning when they are 14 or more points betting favorites are 85%. Therefore, such high odds should give us confidence in betting on which team will win. However, predicting the exact path to victory — such as when each team will score or the margin of victory — is nearly impossible.

Similarly, CAPE has proven highly reliable at predicting returns for the next 10 years, but it does not specify which months and years within that period will see gains or losses. Consider the two charts below, which compare CAPE levels to 10-year and 6-month forward returns. In the first chart, low CAPE levels indicate high forward returns and vice versa. At today’s level, we should expect returns for the next ten years in a relatively tight range between plus and minus 3%. However, the second graph shows no predictive reliability in forecasting the next six months based on CAPE levels. Based on that graph, we should expect annualized returns of ±30%.

Lastly, the bar chart below shows that the longer the time horizon, the better the correlation between CAPE valuations and forward returns.

Composition Skews CAPE

Due to the ever-changing nature of the S&P 500, every monthly CAPE calculation involves different weightings and sometimes different stocks. For example, the CAPE ratio of 1929 was heavily weighted with industrial, utility, and railroad companies. Today, it is technology-centric. As a more specific example, Nvidia contributed 0.50% to the S&P 500 in 2020. Currently, it accounts for almost 8%.

The Magnificent Seven (Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta) account for over a third of the index today. Given their surging market caps and earnings growth, those companies are having an outsized impact on CAPE.

For example, Nvidia, at 8% of the index, posted an EPS of $1.08 last quarter. Its average EPS over the previous ten years was a relatively paltry 18 cents. Does Nvidia’s CAPE reflect reality?

Nvidia And The Magnificent Seven Warp CAPE

Nvidia has a current CAPE ratio of 293, but a more reasonable P/E ratio of 48. Thus, we can reasonably argue that, given the recent surge in Nvidia’s earnings, CAPE is misleading. The same holds to some extent for many of the Magnificent Seven stocks, as we show below.

If we strip Nvidia out of the CAPE calculation, the CAPE for the remaining S&P 500 will fall by nearly 3 points. Moreover, if we take all the Magnificent Seven stocks out of the CAPE calculation, CAPE will decline from 41 to 33. The graph below shows how the Magnificent Seven stocks have increasingly warped the CAPE ratio over the last ten years.

Based on the graph above, we can still say the CAPE ratio is historically high, but it may not be as concerning as we originally thought.

Looking back to 1999, we find that Microsoft had a decent impact on CAPE. At the time, it was the index’s most significant contributor, accounting for 5%. Removing Microsoft from the 1999 CAPE calculation would have made it decline by 2. Removing Intel and Walmart, also in the top five in 1999, would have taken another one from CAPE. Exxon and GE, the remaining top five, had no material impact on the ratio. Simply put, the effect today from the largest stocks is greater than in 1999.

PEG Matters

What separates today from 1999 is current earnings growth. Investors are getting more for their CAPE valuation via recent earnings growth. Per Bloomberg,

 The Magnificent Seven and Broadcom Inc., which collectively account for 37% of the S&P 500, are expected to grow profits by an average of 21%.

Investors should be willing to pay high valuations for more growth, but can extraordinary growth rates for a handful of stocks continue? If so, high market valuations make a lot more sense.

Interestingly, some of the Magnificent Seven stocks, which have expensive P/Es but strong earnings growth, may be more conservative than the bulk of S&P 500 companies, which trade at high valuations but have little earnings growth.

To better appreciate this, we use the PEG ratio (Price/Earnings / Expected Growth). This ratio helps make P/E ratios comparable across companies and industries with different growth rates.

The FinViz heat map below shows the PEG ratio for the S&P 500 companies. Notice the sea of red—high PEG ratios — throughout the S&P 500. However, some of the Magnificent Seven, including MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, and META, are pretty reasonable.

Other Valuations

A CAPE valuation of 30 versus 40 may ease the concerns of a few readers. However, we caution that the stock market peaked at a CAPE of 32 in 1929. No one valuation gauge will tell you where or when the top is. Conversely, high valuations need not revert to the historical norm. Over time, the average valuation can rise. Also, a reversion to average valuations can result from higher-than-expected earnings growth and stocks posting positive but small returns. 

With all those options to consider, we should still recognize that stock valuations are incredibly high, whether or not Nvidia and the other Magnificent Seven stocks are included.

To “fix” the CAPE10, ie, reduce the “Nvidia warp”, to better reflect current valuations, we present the CAPE 2 graph below, based on two years of prior earnings. As shown, the current level is below the levels in 2021 and 1999. However, it is well above the 1929 market top. The high readings of 2004 and 2010 occurred even as earnings were very low due to the respective recessions occurring in 2002/03 and 2008.  They were not representative of earnings during a more stable period of growth.

The table below, courtesy of BofA, lists 20 valuation measures along with their averages, minimums, maximums, and Z-scores. As it shows, all but one measure points to overvaluation. Moreover, 9 of the 20 Z-scores indicate that the respective valuations are more than two standard deviations above the long-term average.

Summary

Most of the straight P/E measures in the table above are around two standard deviations above the average. But both PEG measures, which encompass future growth, are within one standard deviation of each other. This reinforces the idea that the market is expensive but not grossly expensive if you think earnings growth forecasts are accurate.

 Another critical takeaway from this analysis- the market is making a big bet that a small handful of companies can keep powering strong earnings for the entire index.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 11:40

The Only Asset Down On The Year: Oil

Oil is back below $60, and CNBC’s @jimcramer just predicted an oil crash. It’s got to be the bottom. Time to buy oil and oil stocks. Also, low oil prices are great for precious metals mining stocks, so keep buying those too.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) October 10, 2025

Oil stocks seem to be the only cheap equities on the market, but does that mean they are going higher? Join ZeroHedge for an actionable deep dive into everything affecting the oil market, moderated by former energy trader and macro-podcaster Erik Townsend.

Wednesday night at 7 pm ET, we bring together three pre-eminent voices in global energy:

• Arjun Murti (Partner, Veriten): With over 30 years on Wall Street, a former Partner and Co-Director of Americas Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and current Director at ConocoPhillips, Murti remains at the frontline of energy macro and policy.

• Paul Sankey (Founder, Sankey Research): A former lead U.S. oil & refining analyst at Deutsche Bank, Sankey has earned multiple Institutional Investor rankings and spent his career dissecting global oil equities, refining cycles and capital-markets dynamics.

• Mike McGlone (Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence): With more than 25 years in futures and commodity markets, McGlone drives commodity-market strategy at Bloomberg and offers deep insight into supply, demand and macro-commodity linkages.

They’ll each present differing but grounded views on key questions facing the market:

1. How are geopolitical events likely to affect prices?

2. Are technicals looking bullish or bearish?

3. Has the long-term investment thesis changed under the Trump era with Democrats notably quiet on the Green Transition which was supposed to arrive by 2030?

Oil Bears (paraphrasing): "When this chart I am publicly and regularly showing you of inventory build that everyone can see because we all have and love our Bloomberg Termimal shows up on a different chart of onshore inventories that is also readily found on our BBG Terminal, at… https://t.co/LRVQKdLmEl

— arjun⚡️murti (@ArjunNMurti) October 28, 2025

Details:

Date & Time: Tonight at 7 pm ET

Live Platforms: ZeroHedge homepage, X, YouTube, Rumble

This discussion brings together the sharpest energy-market minds in the world under one roof. Stay tuned for our live ZeroHedge Debate. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 11:20

WTI Selloff Stalls After Large Inventory Draws; US Crude Production Hit A New Record High

Oil prices held steady after a three-day drop as investors assessed the impact of Western sanctions against leading Russian crude producers, alongside a mixed industry estimate of US inventory changes.

President Trump will follow through and enforce harsh new sanctions against Moscow to pressure Vladimir Putin into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, according to Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO.

Indian state-owned refiners are considering whether they can continue to take some discounted Russian oil after the measures were imposed, though some processors will pause purchases for now.

On Tuesday, Indian Oil Corp. said it is “absolutely not going to discontinue” purchases of Russian crude as long as it complies with international sanctions.

“The market is now trying to assess the longer-term impact of the additional sanctions, which will be determined by the quantity of actual barrels removed from supply,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note.

Overnight prices stabilized after API showed across the board big inventory draws...

API

• Crude -4.0mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline -6.35mm

• Distillates -4.36mm

DOE

• Crude -6.86mm (-900k exp) - biggest draw in 7 weeks

• Cushing +1.334mm

• Gasoline -5.94mm - biggest draw since Oct 2024

• Distillates -3.36mm

The official inventory data confirmed the API's report with large drawdowns in inventories across crude and the products...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production rose to a new record high last week

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied modestly on the big crude draw

Source: Bloomberg

Oil is on track to notch a third monthly decline, with prices dragged lower by expectations of a global surplus as OPEC+ raises production. Key alliance nations are set to hold discussions this weekend, and may sign off on another supply increase. Traders are also tracking progress toward a US-China trade deal, with Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping due to meet on Thursday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:52

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

Excerpt:

Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.57%, up from 0.56% August. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in September 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.54%, up from 0.53% in August. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in September 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic./blockquote>There is much more in the article.

Dutch Cast Ballots In Knife-Edge Election, Crucial Test For Geert Wilders & The Right

There is an extremely tight race on between Geert Wilders' Party For Freedom (PVV), which is often dubbed in mainstream media as 'far right', and more 'moderate' parties, including the Green Left Labour Party (GL-PvdA), center-left D66 and centrist Christian Democratic Party (CDA) - as Dutch voters cast their ballots across the Netherlands on Wednesday in a close-run snap election.

Key national issues include reining in migration, chronic shortages of affordable housing, high cost of living, national security questions in relation to the Ukraine war and purchasing US military equipment for Ukraine, as well as forming a stable government amid an increasingly polarized Netherlands political scene. While Wilders' PVV is favored, chances are slim that other parties will work with it to form a coalition, as happened last June. The political winds are blowing to the center, most analysts believe. 

AFP/Getty Images

Polls have indicated that even a victory at the ballot box for Wilders will not easily translate into forming a government. Wilders emerged as the clear winner in the previous election in November 2023, but recent polls suggest his support has slipped ahead of Wednesday's vote.

Rival parties have increasingly ruled out cooperating with him following the collapse of his own governing alliance last June.

"It's up to the voters today," Wilders said after casting his vote at The Hague City Hall, surrounded by security guards. "It's a close call…four or five different parties. I'm confident."

European media has widely anticipated that the next Dutch government, which could be more influenced by who comes in second in the vote rather than the first, will more likely to come from the center left or center right.

Polls showed over a third of voters to be undecided even up to the eve of the election. "It's one of the most important elections, because people need to have their faith restored," Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, has described.

According to a new BBC review of what's at stake on Wednesday:

As many as 15 parties are set to win a share of parliament's 150 seats, but opinion polls suggest four will stand out. Apart from Wilders' PVV, there is GreenLeft-Labour under ex-EU top official Frans Timmermans, Rob Jetten's liberal D66 and the centre-right Christian Democrats of Henri Bontenbal.

And The Guardian reviews some key elements of this election as follows:

• The PVV, which finished a shock first in the last election and formed a short-lived, four-party rightwing coalition, has seen its once sizeable lead fade fast. With nearly half the electorate undecided, analysts say the race is too tight to call.
• Final polling averages suggest Wilders’ party could win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, well down on the 37 it captured in the 2023 elections. Even if it does finish first, all major parties have ruled out going into government with the anti-immigration firebrand.
• Wilders pulled the plug on the outgoing government in June, less than a year after it took office, when the PVV’s coalition partners refused to endorse his radical anti-refugee plans, widely seen as unworkable or illegal.

* * *

Michael Every of Rabobank comments in the following...

In the UK, the new far-left Your Party will launch legal action against three of its ‘rogue’ founders, according to sources, leaving people asking, ‘Whose Party?’ and ‘Whose donation money?’; and

There is a Dutch general election today, where the Netherlands is rightly glued to its own screen and the rest of the world (and markets) likely aren’t, barring a totally unexpected outcome. After all, Politico quotes one of the major party’s election platforms as ‘Make Boring Great Again’.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:35

Russian Infantry Operating Inside Pokrovsk - Strategic Ukrainian City's Fall Imminent

The key logistical hub of Ukraine's eastern front - Pokrovsk, has been under steady contention for much of the past year, with Russian forces spending slow, methodical efforts pushing westward to flank just south of the city. 

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine's eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro.  The city's defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia's access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

It's capture at this point looks imminent, given Ukrainian media is confirming Russian infantry have infiltrated the main logistical district of the city. It's somewhat sizeable, as it had a prewar population of some 60,000.

Getty Images

"At least 200 Russian infantry armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand-held rockets were moving freely in the southern districts of city, at times ambushing Ukrainian defense forces still generally in control of central and northern districts, according to public statements by army officers to Ukrainian media," according to Kyiv Post on Wednesday.

Russia's military has said that Ukrainian forces have been suffering steady and immense losses seeking to defend Pokrovsk.

"Every day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) sends up to 120 soldiers to the town of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name - Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People’s Republic, which indicates its enormous losses in the area," military expert Vitaly Kiselev told TASS."

"The enemy still has a strong hold on the city, and has no plans of retreating," he said. "They still have equipment and manpower here, all the more so that small units of about 15-20 men are being regularly sent there as reinforcements."

"In fact, groups of 15-20 people arrive there five or six times a day. This shows enormous losses in this area," the analyst added.

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines. 

2/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

Read more: https://t.co/LiVFrGnyU4 pic.twitter.com/JqCIzwNaTk

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 28, 2025

Where Putin goes from there is hard to say, but a campaign back into Western Ukraine, this time using attrition tactics, would not be unthinkable - especially given the past months have seen incursions in the central oblast of Dnipropetrovsk which began this past summer.

Pokrovsk is, interestingly, valuable for another reason that's not immediately apparent: It acts as high ground in a nation of lowlands, and high ground allows for more effective use of drones because the signals travel further and are harder to jam with electronic interference. While US-brokered ceasefire efforts have stalled, these developments give Moscow huge leverage if there should be a return to the negotiating table.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:20

Bank of Canada Cuts 25bps As Expected, Cites Weak Growth

In a preview of what is to come today at 2pm from the Fed, moments ago the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bp to 2.25%, as expected, noting that current policy is "about the right level" to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. 

In its statement, the central bank noted the Canadian economy contracted 1.6% in the second quarter amid heightened uncertainty, and said the trade dispute with the US is likely to result in weak growth in the second half of the year, but there will be some help from rising consumer and government spending and as exports and business investment begin to recover.

They said the labor market remains soft with job losses continuing to build in trade-sensitive sectors. The BoC noted inflation was slightly higher than expected and remains sticky

Some more highlights from the statement: 

US Tariffs

• Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than- usual range of risks.
• Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about Z/% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.
• US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber.

Economy

• As a result of US trade actions, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year.
• Canada’s labor market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses.
• The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

Policy

• If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.
• The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.

In his opening statement, BoC Governor Macklem said rates were cut again to support the economy through adjustment to US trade policy (yes, yes, it's all Trump's fault). Some more highlights from what Macklem said, thanks to Newsquawk: For the first time since January and the start of the trade conflict, the Bank is publishing a baseline outlook for economic growth and inflation, rather than alternative scenarios; Focused on ensuring Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Trade

• US tariffs and trade uncertainty have weakened the Canadian economy. We expect very modest growth through the rest of the year, with some pickup in 2026. While this weakness is restraining price increases, the trade conflict is also adding costs for many businesses, putting upward pressure on inflation. We expect these opposing forces to roughly offset, keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The weakness we’re seeing in the Canadian economy is more than a cyclical downturn. It is also a structural transition. The US trade conflict has diminished Canada’s economic prospects. The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs. This limits the ability of monetary policy to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.
• US trade policy remains unpredictable, as events over the weekend reminded us. The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual—we need to be humble about our forecast. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond.

Labor

• The labor market is soft. Job losses have been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, and hiring has been weak across the economy.
• The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September, and wage growth has slowed.

Economy

• GDP growth is expected to resume, but remain weak, averaging about 0.75%. It should then pick up on a quarterly basis in 2026 as exports and investment recover, and average about 1.5% by 2027. This implies excess supply is only taken up gradually.
• While the global economy has been resilient to the rise in US tariffs and increased uncertainty, the impacts are becoming more evident.
• If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook in our MPR, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.
• Canadian businesses and households are feeling the consequences of increased US protectionism.

The market reaction was muted: since the rate cut was expected, and coupled with the line that "current policy rate is about the right level", implying the BOC would pause and observe effects of its recent easing, the USDCAD initially fell from 1.3929 to 1.3916 before stabilizing around 1.3925 after the kneejerk move. In short, a nothingburger. 

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:08

US Pending Home Sales Rise Most In Almost A Year As Mortgage Rates Slide

September data for the US housing market has been positive so far (with new home sales soaring and existing home sales 'off the lows') as mortgage rates trend lower offering some affordability respite for buyers.

However, today's pending home sales data disappointed, printing unchanged MoM versus expectations of a 1.2% MoM rise (after an upwardly revised 4.2% MoM rise in August)...

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, on a YoY basis, sales rose 1.5% -  the best since Nov 2024.

The total pending home sales Index pushed further 'off the record lows', but is hardly

Source: Bloomberg

“A record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Nonetheless, “mortgage rates are trending toward three-year lows, which should further improve affordability, though the government shutdown could temporarily slow home sales activity.”

Moreover, the so-called “lock-in effect” - in which homeowners resist selling because of their existing low-rate mortgages - is waning and helping to boost inventory.

Source: Bloomberg

By region, contract signings on previously owned homes rose 1.1% in the South to the highest level since March.

Pending sales also climbed in the Northeast, while falling in the West and Midwest.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:08

Cracker Barrel Shares Down About 32% This Year, Following "Century's Worst Brand Blunder"

Cracker Barrel tried to go “modern,” and eight days later had to shove Uncle Herschel back into the logo. Two months on, investors are still cleaning up the mess — the stock is down 32% this year and inching toward its 2008 financial-crisis faceplant. 

CEO Julie Felss Masino thought removing the overalls-wearing mascot would “revive” the 50-year-old chain. Instead, loyal diners, conservative activists, and even Donald Trump dragged the company for ditching its Southern identity. Some shareholders now want her gone, according to Bloomberg. 

As Biglari Capital put it: “Management has relied on ill-conceived strategies that have worsened existing challenges rather than solved them.” They’re calling for votes against Masino and board compensation chair Gilbert Dávila. Biglari owns 2.9% of the company — and apparently 97% of the patience.

Bloomberg writes that traffic hasn’t recovered even after firing the marketing firm and scrapping remodel plans, per Placer.ai data. Cracker Barrel’s defense: “We’ve taken recent guest feedback to heart and are moving forward with a renewed focus on the food and guest experience.”

Translation: We hear you, please come back.

This Bud Light-style misfire comes as the whole industry struggles with inflation and weak traffic. But Cracker Barrel is making its own problems: an 8% drop in visits after the logo fiasco vs. 1% before. Wells Fargo’s Anthony Trainor noted, “Cracker Barrel’s turnaround has come off track… It will take time for the brand to recover.”

Their solution? A $19.99 two-entree-plus-dessert deal that Trainor says doesn’t “address underlying issues.” 

The “not ideological at all” rebrand has vaporized nearly $600 million in value. Masino insists the logo tweak was just about billboard visibility — because nothing says legibility like erasing your mascot and your customer base.

Competitors aren’t doing great either — Cheesecake Factory, Brinker, Chipotle — but to their credit, at least they didn’t attempt a woke makeover that backfired instantly.

Biglari’s final roast: the logo stunt ranks “among this century’s worst brand blunders alongside Bud Light and Jaguar.” Congratulations, Cracker Barrel — you’re in legendary company.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:00

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows No Change in September

Pending home sales in September showed no change from the prior month and fell 0.9% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales under contract. ...

Month-Over-Month
No change in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West

Year Over Year
0.9% decrease in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

More Two-Screen Analysis... For Now

By Michael Every of Rabobank

‘Two-screen analysis’ continues today… for now.

On one, it’s the Bank of Canada and Fed rate decisions. For the BOC, we expect a 25bps rate cut to 2.25% to be the end of its cutting cycle – see here for more. For the Fed, we also expect a 25bps cut to 4.0% but don’t think they are done cutting yet – see here for more on that.

However, as geopolitical/geoeconomic developments play out on the second screen, is the Fed headline that matters more that Trump is floating Treasury Secretary Bessent as Chair – and not at the expense of his current role(?) Yet every Fed candidate is now Trumpian. That doesn’t just mean lower rates. Floating Bessent is to embrace the Fed playing a role in a US ‘grand macro strategy’. You don’t have to join many dots to see what the plot there is: Bessent is already suggesting the BOJ needs room to act (i.e., hike), pushing JPY higher and JGB yields the same.

In tandem, Trump and PM Takaichi pledged a 'new golden age' for their alliance as the two countries agreed a Memorandum of Cooperation on tech and listed the deals which are part of the $550bn FDI pledged by Tokyo, from energy and AI to critical minerals. Even if aspirational, the direction is clear. So is the fact this is driven by statecraft, not markets. Soon, central banks may play a direct role in it.

Equally, the Fed decision is just ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea - and the latter surely matters more(?) The Wall Street Journal claims Trump will consider lowering the 20% fentanyl tariff on China by half, which Trump just confirmed. Of course, China promised action on that front in 2017-18, May 2019, November 2023, January and August 2024, and June 2025: logically, one side is raising the issue for no reason or the other can’t or won’t act on it for another. US rumours are also that it will get a very good deal, but the South China Morning Post warns Trump’s love of unpredictability could hinder things, noting, “the US president’s erratic style of diplomacy and lack of strategy or focus may leave Beijing baffled.”

And central bankers. The flurry of tariff shifts and investment deals this week alone will keep their static, econometric models permanently grinding out ‘what-ifs’ presented as fact; and the ‘what if?’ of a Fed that doesn’t think in such two-dimensional terms is now more of a ‘what then?’

Asian central banks have certainly been pulled all over the place. The BOJ is being leaned on to hike; Bank Indonesia held after a series of cuts, worried about IDR; and the Bank of Korea also held, worried about high household debt. Then Australian Q3 CPI today came in far hotter than expected at 1.3% q-o-q headline (vs 1.1% consensus) and 3.2% y-o-y (vs 3.0%), 1.0% q-o-q trimmed mean (vs. 0.8%), and 1.0% q-o-q weighted median (vs. 0.9%), while the September print was 3.5% y-o-y (vs. 3.1%). Much of this was services-led, and much of that was directly or indirectly property-led, which has boomed again on recent RBA rate cuts and those arriving in Australia exceeding the number of houses being built (again). So, more RBA cuts to come? Don’t rule out a pause rather than a halt in easing, says our Australia-New Zealand macro strategist Ben Picton. Which is what an independent inflation-targeting central bank does, according to markets.

Yet the action in said markets is really about grand macro strategy: Nvidia is linking up with Palantir as Microsoft restructures OpenAI so it’s openly making money as part of a US private-sector Manhattan Project, which the government is paving the way for with an $80bn deal for new nuclear power plants (partly funded by Japan) to ensure cheap electricity for AI.  

That’s as some major US firms start mass firings of workers as that emerging technology allows them to do so very profitably. To say you need to be reading the relevant parts of Marx, Keynes, Kalecki, and Leontief on a second screen as this all unfolds is an understatement. But almost nobody will.

There’s also a lot going on in the geopolitical/geoeconomic realm in Europe too. We listed a staggeringly ambitious set of reforms and implied economic statecraft actions being proposed yesterday. On top of that, the European Commission is doubling down on its Ukraine loan scheme using Russian frozen assets, despite Belgian pushback, and had effectively stated “If you won’t seize Russia’s cash, open your wallets”, according to Politico. Meanwhile, the Kyiv Independent warns Russian troops outnumber Ukraine’s 8-1 in Pokrovsk as Kupiansk is over-run. In response, ‘Zelenskyy targets harder, better, faster, stronger strikes in Russian oil facilities’.

In the Middle East, Israel launched US-approved strikes on Gaza after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations, but the White House believes the ceasefire will hold. That said, the US envoy to Lebanon warned it has “one last chance” to disarm Hezbollah: if not, military action may be stepped up. Moreover, mass civilian killings have been reported in a Sudanese city seized by the paramilitary group RSF. Will that kind of instability stay regional, and off market radars?

In LatAm, the US Senate rejected Trump tariffs on Brazil, but the vote was just symbolic, even if notable – will Trump put a 10% tariff on the Senate now in response? Within BRICS, via Nexperia, Brazil’s automakers may have to halt output in weeks if the global chips crisis persists, said a government official. Mexican President Sheinbaum stated she and Trump have agreed to extend a looming trade deadline for several weeks as negotiations continue, averting the risk of tariffs rising from 25% to 30% after a 90-day pause agreed to in July expires imminently. The US military also destroyed four more boats it said were carrying drugs, as pressure continues to build on Venezuela - and Reuters claims US military officials have been required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America missions.

In the economy, the US government shutdown rolls on, as a federal judge indefinitely blocked Trump’s planned worker layoffs; however, the Pentagon removed key protections for its civilian workers and stated it is moving to fire them with “speed and conviction.”

The EU Parliament warned Von der Leyen to change her budget or they will reject it; and France’s parliament agreed to adopt a €26bn tax hike on multinationals – “We have just suffocated the economy," as one MP is quoted in Le Figaro.

In politics, US Attorney General Bondi is now reviewing Biden presidential pardons signed by autopen, with a Republican-majority Congressional committee having decided they may be “void.” To say that could unleash political, then legal, drama is an understatement.

In the UK, the new far-left Your Party will launch legal action against three of its ‘rogue’ founders, according to sources, leaving people asking, ‘Whose Party?’ and ‘Whose donation money?’; and

There is a Dutch general election today, where the Netherlands is rightly glued to its own screen and the rest of the world (and markets) likely aren’t, barring a totally unexpected outcome. After all, Politico quotes one of the major party’s election platforms as ‘Make Boring Great Again’.

There’s very little of that anywhere else though, and the one screen many in markets look at may soon be full of very different content.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 09:46