Jewish FDNY Commissioner Resigned Just Hours After Mamdani's Election Victory

FDNY Commissioner Robert Tucker resigned last Wednesday morning, less than 12 hours after Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City mayoral race over Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, according to the Daily News and Firehouse.

In a letter to Mayor Eric Adams, Tucker said his final day will be Dec. 19. “Between now and then, I will continue to lead the greatest fire department in the world and will ensure an orderly transition,” he wrote.

A department source said Tucker has had no discussions with Mamdani’s team about remaining in his post.

The source added that Tucker, who is Jewish and a Zionist, believed he wouldn’t align well with Mamdani, a Democratic socialist who faced criticism during the campaign for remarks some viewed as anti-Semitic.

The report notes that Tucker, CEO of a private security firm and longtime member of the FDNY Foundation board, was appointed commissioner in August 2024, succeeding Laura Kavanagh, the department’s first female commissioner.

Tucker’s resignation marks another major shift within city leadership following a heated election season that highlighted deep political divides. Mamdani, a Queens assemblyman known for his progressive stances on housing and policing, ran on a platform of redistributing city resources and increasing public investment in social services. His victory signaled a sharp turn from Adams’ more centrist approach to public safety and governance.

During his brief tenure, Tucker focused on strengthening the FDNY’s recruitment pipeline, modernizing training programs, and improving firefighter wellness and mental health resources.

He also oversaw initiatives to expand diversity within the department and enhance coordination during large-scale emergencies, earning praise from union leaders and city officials alike.

On Wednesday, Tucker was traveling to Israel to meet with the Israel Fire and Rescue Authority and is expected to comment on his resignation upon returning.

Mamdani is now set to become New York City’s first Muslim and youngest mayor in a century, having won 50% of the vote in Tuesday’s election.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 14:05

Government Shutdown Delayed Some $5BN In Weapons Transfers To Ukraine

Via The Libertarian Institute

The government shutdown has slowed arms transfers to NATO allies and Ukraine. Some State Department officials involved in ensuring weapons sales are completed have been furloughed. 

Axios reports the words of officials who explained AMRAAM and HIMARS missile shipments to Denmark, Croatia, and Poland have been delayed. Many of these arms will then be transferred to Ukraine. 

Via Reuters

"This is actually really harming both our allies and partners and US industry to actually deliver a lot of these critical capabilities overseas," a senior State Department official told Axios.

The White House blamed Democrats for the slowdown in a statement to Axios: "Democrats are holding up critical weapons sales, including to our NATO allies, which harms the U.S. industrial base and puts our and our partners’ security at risk," State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said. 

And the Ukrainian publication Kyiv Post noted:

Even as the Senate moved toward reopening the government, the shutdown’s ripple effects continued to reverberate across national security circles.

Alarming reports indicated the funding lapse had frozen more than $5 billion in US weapons exports intended for NATO allies and Ukraine.

After taking office, President Donald Trump canceled Joe Biden’s policy of shipping billions of dollars in weapons every month to Ukraine. Trump has authorized NATO states to buy US weapons for Ukraine. 

While Trump has ended direct weapon transfers to Ukraine, he has continued to fuel the war by providing Kiev with intelligence for long-range strikes inside Russia and ramped up sanctions on Moscow. 

Russian media taking note: "Even routine arms deals are struck."

US weapon exports worth $5B DELAYED by government shutdown — now entering day 40

Critical deliveries to NATO allies and Ukraine, including AMRAAM missiles, Aegis systems, and HIMARS, are on hold

Even routine arms deals are stuck pic.twitter.com/0GT5eOHquo

— RT (@RT_com) November 9, 2025

On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to end the war on his first day in office. Trump has failed to make progress towards that promise as the White House recently called off a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hungary.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 12:20

Supreme Court Rejects Challenge To Its 2015 Gay Marriage Ruling

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court on Nov. 10 rejected a challenge to its landmark 2015 ruling that requires all states to grant licenses for same-sex marriages.

The nation’s highest court declined to grant the petition in Davis v. Ermold in an unsigned order. The court did not explain its decision.

The petition was filed by former Rowan County, Kentucky, clerk Kim Davis, who, a decade ago, would not sign marriage licenses for same-sex couples.

Davis declined to sign the licenses after the Supreme Court ruled 5–4 in June 2015 in a case called Obergefell v. Hodges that the 14th Amendment to the Constitution requires all states to grant licenses for same-sex marriages and recognize same-sex marriages carried out in other states.

Days after the Obergefell decision, David Moore and David Ermold sought a marriage license from Davis. She declined, saying she was acting “under God’s authority” and advised the couple to seek a marriage license in another county.

The men sued for civil rights violations, seeking damages. A federal district court issued an order in a separate case directing Davis to issue marriage licenses.

Not long after the Obergefell decision, Kentucky’s then-governor, Steve Beshear, directed all county clerks, including Davis, to “license and recognize the marriages of same-sex couples,” the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit recounted in its March 6 ruling that upheld a civil judgment against Davis.

Davis took the position at the time that her office would not issue any marriage licenses “until the state passed legislation to grant her an accommodation,” the ruling said.

While Davis’s appeal of the court order was pending, Kentucky enacted a law allowing clerks’ names to be left off marriage licenses. Davis accepted this and asked for her appeal to be dismissed.

The Sixth Circuit declined to dismiss the appeal because the plaintiffs were seeking damages.

The legal proceeding went on for years before a federal jury awarded $100,000 in total compensatory damages to Moore and Ermold.

The Sixth Circuit did not disturb the jury verdict and held that Davis was not entitled to immunity from suit as a government official, the ruling said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 11:40

 

I am very excited about an upcoming MiB Live interview with Samantha McLemore. She may not be a household name, but she is a rock star in the finance world.

She succeeded the legendary fund manager Bill Miller, with whom she collaborated for two decades. Miller famously beat the market for 15 consecutive years, until the GFC ended his streak.

McLemore has taken over the stewardship of the Opportunity Equity strategy, which she now manages solely following Miller’s retirement. She is also Chief Investment Officer of Patient Capital Management, and a recognized leader in value investing.

McLemore has received multiple Sauren Gold medals for outstanding fund management (2019–2021).​ She was included in Baltimore’s “40 Under 40” in 2017, She has outperformed the S&P 500 YTD, and over 1-Year, 3-Years and since the funds inception (12/30/1999).

Recognized for her disciplined, opportunistic approach and her work/life balance as a fund manager and mother of three, this promises to be a wonderful conversation.

A few free tickets are still available. Here are the details:

What: Bloomberg City Spotlight: DC

When: November 18th, 5:00 pm

Format: Podcast Taping in front of a Live Audience

Location: Phillips Collection

For those people interested in learning about how RWM works with clients or information about the event, reach out to us at Info AT RitholtzWealth.com.

 

Can’t wait to see you in D.C.

 

The post Samantha McLemore on MiB Live at the Phillips Collection appeared first on The Big Picture.

100 Christian Leaders Urge Trump To Save Syria's Christians As He Hosts President Sharaa

Syian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose al-Qaeda name is Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is being welcomed in Washington Monday where he's meeting President Trump at the White House, which is a first for any Syrian head of state in history.

But just before this, some 100 influential Christian leaders sent a letter to President Trump calling on him to raise the issue of minority rights and protection of Syria's ancient Christian community.

Syrian church in the heart of Damascus' walled 'Old City' district.

The letter was led by Dede Laugesen, president of Save the Persecuted Christians. The letter, submitted to the White House Friday, highlighted that Trump has made the protection of persecuted Christians in foreign lands like the Middle East and Africa a priority, and that the issue must be pressed firmly with Sharaa. Former member of Trump's cabinet, Dr. Ben Carson, was among those who signed the urgent letter.

The Syrian leader who overthrew longtime secular Baathist President Bashar al-Assad (who fled to Russia) last December has overseen a campaign of mass killings and kidnappings targeting non-Sunnis, including Druze, Alawites, and Christians - particularly along the Syrian coast and in the south.

Sharaa/Jolani's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, an AQ spin-off) had starting in 2015 cleansed Idlib city of its Christians, and St. Mary Orthodox Church was destroyed and taken over. Chechens and other foreign fighters took over the homes of Christian families as well. It's a disgusting reality that this was all done with the tacit support of the CIA to these radical jihadi groups in the north, for the sake of pursuing regime change in Damascus.

The Christian leaders wrote, "We urge you to address directly the massacre of Christians, Kurds, Druze, and Alawites in Syria, notably in the greater Suwayda area. These religious minorities face ongoing violence, death, displacement, starvation, and water and medical deprivation—all while innocent women and children are held hostage by ISIS terrorists."

While we're on topic, I recommend this book to any Christian in the West who is interested in what the results of the Western attack on Syria actually looked like. pic.twitter.com/HywrqeEAzb

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) December 5, 2024

Syria Crucified: Stories of Modern Martyrdom in an Ancient Christian Land

"Mr. President, we respectfully request that you secure President al-Sharaa’s commitment to opening a secure humanitarian corridor from Hader to Suwayda in southern Syria. This corridor will enable safe and secure aid delivery and civilian evacuation, signaling the new government’s commitment to minority rights and stability," the letter stated.

Conservative commentator Laura Loomer, who has in the recent past demonstrated a significant degree of influence at the Trump White House, speaks bluntly in a fresh social media post while addressing Trump:

As I have reported, under Julani’s direction as the new President of Syria, he and his militant jihadist forces have been massacring religious minorities and he has blocked a humanitarian corridor from being opened between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights for the sake of delivering emergency and life saving aid to the persecuted religious minorities. Julani is an ISIS terrorist.

If President Trump is going to normalize him on US soil at the White House of all places, he must demand that Julani stop killing religious minorities.

I spent the entire week in Israel and on the Syrian border speaking with members of the Druze community in Majdal Shams, who told me how they and their families have been negatively impacted by Julani’s Islamic terrorism.

It wasn't long ago that Sharaa had a $10 million US bounty on his head, but his terrorism designation has recently been removed, also to facilitate his travel to the United States. This was also the case with his foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani, literally a founder of al-Qaeda in Syria.

Already, since Jolani came to power at least dozens of primarily Orthodox Christians have been slaughtered, including a bombing of a historic Damascus church which killed 25 and wounded over 60 more in June.

The fruits of CIA's Timber Sycamore program:

The U.S. State Dept.’s own numbers: read the full report HERE at STATE.GOV

Another irony is that these "former" terrorists are being hosted in the White House a mere day before Veteran's Day, and Jolani had even been at one point an emissary of the Islamic State's top leader. These are ISI (Islamic State in Iraq) militants who at one point were fighting and killing American soldiers. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 11:20

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Negative Equity Rates Have Increased

• Negative equity rates, after years at record lows, have risen slightly toward more typical levels

• As of Q4, 875K mortgage holders (1.6%) owe more on their homes than they are worth, the highest rate in three years but comparable to pre-COVID levels and long-term averages outside the Great Financial Crisis

• The share of borrowers with limited equity has also increased, reaching 6.9% in September ‒ the highest since mid-2020 but still below long-term averages
...
• While overall negative equity rates remain low, certain markets are showing signs of concern, particularly in the Gulf Coast of Florida and Austin, Texas

• In Cape Coral, Fla., where home prices have dropped 15% from their peak, 11% of mortgages are underwater, including over one-third of those originated in 2023 and 2024

• In Austin, with prices down 21% from their highs, nearly 7% of mortgages are underwater, including about 25% of loans from 2022 and over 15% from 2023 and 2024

• Borrowers with low down payment FHA/VA loans in these areas face even higher negative equity rates, exceeding 60% in some cases

• In contrast, markets like Bridgeport, Hartford, New Haven (Conn.), San Jose, Los Angeles, Boston, and New York City, which have resilient home prices and larger down payments, have virtually no negative equity
emphasis added

There is much more in the article.

Key Events This Week: Jobs Report Could Come As Soon As Thursday Once Govt Reopens; Fed Speakers Galore

As DB's Jim Reid puts it poetically, it looks like white smoke is finally emerging from Capitol Hill as late on Sunday night in the Senate there was a 60-40 procedural vote to advance a bill that would end the shutdown as enough moderate Democrats broke ranks with party leadership to progress a bill that would fund Agriculture, Veterans Affairs and the operations of Congress for the full-year, even if other agencies would only be funded through to January 30th. It seems to persuade the moderate Democrats to support the bill, a vote has been promised in December in extending the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that run out at year-end. The timetable from here is slightly less clear but we could get a full vote today or tomorrow assuming no procedural delays.

Probability markets are starting to price in the end game with a 88% expectation that the shutdown will be over by November 16th on Polymarket, a contract high.

Once the government reopens, markets will face a surge of delayed data releases. Historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown suggests that September’s employment report could be among the first to hit the wires, potentially within three business days of reopening. DB expects payrolls to rebound sharply, with headline and private payrolls both forecast at +75k, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. So we could get this Thursday or Friday. The October CPI print is also scheduled for Thursday although it is likely that that number won't come on time, even if the government reopens before then.

Expanding upon this week, on the policy front, the Federal Reserve calendar is busy but unlikely to deliver major surprises. Today brings remarks from St. Louis Fed’s Musalem, who has maintained a hawkish tone. Wednesday is the most crowded day, featuring speeches from Williams, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins across conferences on Treasury markets, fintech and community banking. Later in the week, Musalem and Hammack will join fireside chats, while Schmid and Bostic close out Friday with discussions on energy and economic trends.

Beyond Capitol Hill and the Fed, investors will monitor the Supreme Court following last week’s oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case. Judging by the tone of questioning, the Court appears skeptical of the Administration’s position, suggesting a likely affirmation of lower court rulings. A decision could potentially come quickly, but history points to a longer timeline— with the average time line around 15 weeks - but it could stretch out to the end of the term in June.

While US politics and data dominate, global developments will also shape sentiment. In Europe, the UK releases third-quarter GDP on Thursday and labour market data on Tuesday, alongside inflation prints in Denmark and Norway (today) and Germany’s ZEW survey (tomorrow). In Asia, China has its monthly economic activity data dump on Friday. Japan will publish the Economy Watchers Survey tomorrow and producer price inflation on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain in focus globally. In the United States, results from Cisco, Walt Disney and Applied Materials will be closely watched. European heavyweights reporting include Siemens, Deutsche Telekom and Enel, while Asia sees Tencent, JD.com, SoftBank and Sony. With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported, the bulk of earnings season is behind us, but these names will still provide important signals on sectoral health and global demand. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings for the third quarter — about 80% of the index by market cap — have grown the bottom line by 14.6%, effectively doubling what analysts were expecting. 

source: Earnings Whispers

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday November 10

• Data: Japan September leading index, coincident index, BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, October bank lending, Denmark and Norway October CPI
• Central banks: BoJ’s Nakagawa speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
• Earnings: CoreWeave, Barrick Mining, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Venture Global, Paramount Skydance, Rigetti Computing, Maplebear
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
• Other: COP30 starts in Brazil (through Nov 21)

Tuesday November 11

• Data: UK September average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, October jobless claims change, Japan October Economy Watchers survey, M2, M3, Germany November Zew survey, Eurozone November Zew survey
• Central banks: ECB’s Vujcic and Kocher speak, BoE’s Greene speaks
• Earnings: SoftBank, Sony, Sea, Munich Re, Vodafone, Oklo
• Other: US Veterans Day, G7 foreign ministers meeting (through Nov 12)

Wednesday November 12

• Data: Japan October PPI, machine tool orders, Germany September current account balance, Italy September industrial production, Canada September building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Barr, Williams, Waller, Miran, Paulson and Bostic speak, ECB’s Schnabel and Guindos speak, BoE’s Pill speaks
• Earnings: Cisco, TransDigm, Infineon, Flutter Entertainment, RWE, Bayer, On Holding
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn)
• Other: US Treasury market conference

Thursday November 13

• Data: UK October RICS house price balance, September monthly GDP, Eurozone September industrial production, Australia October labour force survey
• Central banks: Fed’s Musalem speaks, ECB’s economic bulletin, ECB’s Villeroy and Elderson speak, BoE’s Greene speaks
• Earnings: Tencent, Siemens, Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Deutsche Telekom, Enel, Merck KGaA, JD.com, Burberry
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn)

Friday November 14

• Data: China October retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Japan September Tertiary industry index, Italy September trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone September trade balance, Q3 employment, Canada September manufacturing sales
• Central banks: Fed’s Bostic and Schmid speak, ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Vujcic speak
• Earnings: Allianz, Cie Financiere Richemont, Siemens Energy
• Other: EU’s economic and financial affairs council on the EU budget

Turning just to the US, Goldman says that assuming the shutdown ends in mid-November, the bank expects the release of the September employment report a few days after reopening. The statistical agencies will announce new release dates for the other postponed releases in advance. If the BLS decides to release the October employment report, expect its release along with the November report either on schedule on December 5 or delayed by one week.

Monday, November 10 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 09:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will be interviewed on Bloomberg TV. On November 6, Musalem said that the cuts at the September and October FOMC meetings were "appropriate, but we have to be very careful to continue to lean against above-target inflation, while continuing to provide some insurance to the labor market." He also said, "Monetary policy is somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral, and it's getting close to neutral in terms of financial conditions."

Tuesday, November 11 

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, October (consensus 98.2, last 98.8)
• 10:25 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on AI and innovation at the Singapore FinTech Festival. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On October 9, Barr said that “although several data points indicate that the labor market may be roughly in balance, we also know there has been a sharp drop in job creation since May, which suggests risks to the labor market going forward.” However, he also noted that the “Federal Reserve's price stability goal faces significant risks,” adding that he is “skeptical of assurances that we should fully look through higher inflation from import tariffs.”

Wednesday, November 12 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 09:20 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: NY Fed President John Williams will deliver the keynote address at the 2025 US Treasury Market Conference. Speech text is expected. On October 9, Williams said that “the risk of a further slowdown in the labor market is something I’m very focused on.” He added that “if anything, the information suggested that the tariffs effects have been a little smaller than I expected,” highlighting that “there are more downside risks to the labor market and employment.”
• 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak at the Ninth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Speech text is expected. On October 13, President Paulson noted that her “base case is that tariffs will increase the price level, but they won’t leave a lasting imprint on inflation” and that “given this base case, monetary policy should look through tariff effects on prices.” She added that “over the rest of this year, I view easing along the lines of the median Summary of Economic Projections policy path as appropriate.”
• 10:20 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on payments at the Philadelphia Fed's Ninth Annual Fintech Conference. Q&A is expected. On October 31, Governor Waller said that “the biggest concern we have right now is the labor market.” He added that “we know inflation is going to come back down, so this is why I’m still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that’s what all the data is telling me to do.”
• 12:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak about economic trends at the Atlanta Economics Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On October 31, Bostic said, "I was able to get behind [the cut at the October meeting] because I still think we're in restrictive territory and that, to me, is the most important thing. We can't really forget that inflation is a significant problem, and we have to get that back down to our 2 percent target. I think we can still do it, but with each step we get closer and closer to neutral in ways that make me uncomfortable."
• 12:30 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a fireside chat at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. Q&A is expected. On November 6, Miran said, "I would expect based on current information that we end up cutting in December, but nothing is absolutely guaranteed at the end of the day." 
• 04:00 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak at the Boston Fed's 4th Annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference. Speech text is expected. On October 14, Collins said, "With inflation risks somewhat more contained, but greater downside risks to employment, it seems prudent to normalize policy a bit further this year to support the labor market."

Thursday, November 13 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 8 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, GS estimate of last 228k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 1 (GS estimate of last 1,954k)
• 12:15 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at a fireside chat on the US economy and monetary policy at the Evansville Regional Economic Partnership’s Economic Impact and Policy Forum. Q&A is expected. 
• 12:20 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak in a fireside chat at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh. Q&A is expected. On November 6, Hammack said, "After last week’s meeting, I see monetary policy as barely restrictive, if at all, and it’s not obvious to me that monetary policy should do more at this time." 

Friday, November 14 

• 09:20 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated discussion at the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management annual conference.
• 10:05 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Kansas City Fed and Dallas Fed's energy conference. Q&A is expected. In his dissent essay on October 31, Schmid said, "By my assessment, the labor market is largely in balance, the economy shows continued momentum, and inflation remains too high. I view the stance of policy as only modestly restrictive. In this context, I judged it appropriate to maintain the policy rate at this week’s meeting."

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 11:10

Trump Floats $10k Bonus To 'Patriotic' Air Traffic Controllers As FAA Freezes Private Jet Travel At 12 Major Airports

Update (1045ET): Shortly after reports that the FAA will prohibit private aviation travel at a dozen major airports, President Trump wrote on X, urging "All Air Traffic Controllers must get back to work, NOW!!!" threatening that "Anyone who doesn’t will be substantially "docked.”"

Furthermore he offered 'patriotic' controllers, who did not skip work, a sizable bonus: 

"For those Air Traffic Controllers who who were GREAT PATRIOTS, and didn’t take ANY TIME OFF for the "Democrat Shutdown Hoax,” I will be recommending a BONUS of $10,000 per person for distinguished service to our Country."

For the less than patriotic controllers, he had a different message:

"For those that did nothing but complain, and took time off, even though everyone knew they would be paid, IN FULL, shortly into the future, I am NOT HAPPY WITH YOU.

You didn’t step up to help the U.S.A, against the FAKE DEMOCRAT ATTACK that was only meant to hurt our Country.

You will have a negative mark, at least in my mind, against your record.

If you want to leave service in the near future, please do not hesitate to do so, with NO payment or severance of any kind!

You will be quickly replaced by true Patriots, who will do a better job on the Brand New State of the Art Equipment, the best in the World, that we are in the process of ordering."

The last "Administration" wasted Billions of Dollars trying to fix antiquated "junk," Trump continued, adding that:

"They had no idea what they were doing! Again, to our great American Patriots, GOD BLESS YOU - I won’t be able to send your money fast enough! To all others, REPORT TO WORK IMMEDIATELY.

GOD BLESS AMERICA! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

*  *  *

Less than 24 hours after we pointed out that FAA authorities should "ground private jets" to ease gridlock caused by the air traffic controller shortage in the longest-ever government shutdown. The FAA has done precisely that. 

On Monday morning, CNBC reports that the FAA announced that all business aviation activity at a dozen major U.S. airports will be prohibited amid mounting staffing shortages, forcing flight reductions, and threatening to push several key airports toward complete shutdown. 

What we said. 

Ground private jets https://t.co/xO40CF3FIA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 9, 2025

Someone at the FAA listened. 

FAA prohibits most private jets at 12 major airports amid shutdown’s air traffic staffing problems https://t.co/lDGWzAJPdM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 10, 2025

Here are the new private jet restrictions now in effect at 12 major U.S. airports:

• Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD)

• Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW)

• Denver International Airport (DEN)

• General Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport (BOS)

• George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH)

• Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL)

• John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK)

• Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)

• Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

• Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX)

• Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA)

• Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA)

Before some Democrats came to their senses on Sunday afternoon, allowing the GOP to secure 60 votes to advance a bill that would reopen the government, perhaps by the end of the week (Polymarket odds to reopen Nov. 12-15 stand at 85%), we cited an X comment made by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who absoutely nailed, pointing out that once FAA-mandated flight reductions start forcing airport closures, there would be movement on Capitol Hill to reopen the governmnet. 

• As Thanksgiving Travel Looms, Airport Chaos Threat Could Force Washington To End Shutdown

Hours later, on Sunday afternoon into the evening, this happened:

• GOP Secures 60 Votes As Bill To Reopen Government Advances

What likely drove at least eight Democrats to cross the aisle and side with Republicans to begin the process of reopening the government were Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's repeated warnings that daily flight cuts would rise from 4% to 6% by Tuesday, then 10% by mid-month, and could even reach 20%, effectively paralyzing the nation's entire commercial aviation network just ahead of one of the busiest travel periods of the year: Thanksgiving.

Seasonal Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint data shows that the number of travelers screened at airport security checkpoints will begin to surge in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

Back to Sullivan's point, "Once airports close this thing ends. We don't all fly private like many in Congress." 

As for the centimillionaires and billionaires who prefer to fly private, no sympathy needed. Their pilots can always divert to regional or even untowered airfields.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:55

Senate Eyes Possible Monday Passage For Shutdown Bill; Johnson Thinks House 'Has The Votes'

It looks like the Senate may pass legislation to reopen the government after the longest shutdown in US history as soon as today, after passing a key procedural hurdle Sunday night with bipartisan support from enough Democrats. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune. R-S.D.

According to Politico, Monday passage is possible "depending on whether leaders can secure unanimous consent to speed ahead." 

Getting to the finish line will require amending the House-passed continuing resolution to include three full-year appropriations bills for a number of programs plus a new CR for the rest of the government through Jan. 30.

Conversations are ongoing about accelerating the timing. Key players to watch are progressive senators who blasted the deal as well as Sen. Rand Paul, who is upset over the impact the agriculture appropriations piece of the bill would have on hemp.

That said, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters following Sunday night's vote that it "remains to be seen" how fast the Senate can obtain a final vote on the deal - which will depend in part on whether senators agree to yield back time on Monday. Rand Paul wants a vote to remove the language concerning hemp, and a "guarantee" that it will be successful. 

Details of the bill:

• The core would be a continuing resolution to reopen the government until Jan. 30, 2026 

• It will reverse the Trump administration's firings of furloughed workers and ensure they receive back pay.

• A three-bill spending package known as a 'minibus' that would fund military construction, the VA, the legislative branch, agriculture, and the FDA. 

• Food stamps (SNAP) will be funded through fiscal year 2026.

• The package does not extend expiring pandemic-era Obamacare subsidies, but Democrats have been promised a vote on it after the government reopens. 

Johnson Grows Hopeful

Over in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson believes he 'has the votes' necessary to pass the stopgap measure, which would then head to President Trump's desk for his signature to finally end the shutdown. 

According to Politico, House Republican leaders plan to give 36 hours' notice to members before voting. 

Of note, senior Senate Republicans have been working behind the scenes with House Republicans - though GOP hardliners are still expected to push back on aspects of the bill, along with (of course) House Democrats. 

That said, Politico is also seeing many centrist Democrats in the house who may consider voting for the plan - including Reps. Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Henry Cuellar. 

Stay tuned for more throughout the day...

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:40

Car Bomb Rips Through Tourist-Packed Area Of Indian Capital, Killing & Wounding Scores

What appears to be an act of terrorism in the heart of India's capital city has left at least eight people dead and over 24 injured. It happened at Delhi's popular Lajpat Rai Market.

"A car explosion in New Delhi's Red Fort area, popular with tourists to the Indian capital city, has killed several people and injured many more, local media reported," according to reports of Monday's blast. "The cause of the explosion is not immediately clear, but it occurred in a parked car outside Gate 1 of the Red Fort metro station."

One eyewitness only identified as a nearby shopkeeper has told local media: "I never heard such a loud explosion ever in my life." The person described, "I fell three times due to the explosion. It felt as if we were all going to die."

Amid a huge police and emergency response, security personnel across India have been put on a high state of alert particularly near religious and tourism sites, per Al Jazeera:

Local authorities said the Uttar Pradesh region has been put on a red alert in the wake of the blast.

Provincial official Amitabh Yash told local media that all senior officials in Uttar Pradesh were instructed to increase security at religious sites, sensitive districts, and border areas. Police in all districts of Uttar Pradesh have been put on alert, and patrols and checks are to be increased.

Footage has been circulating showing the car bomb aftermath and chaos unleashed:

BREAKING: Two powerful blasts near Delhi’s Red Fort have killed and injured several people. pic.twitter.com/iVw38JReGg

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 10, 2025

Another eyewitness, Mohsin Ali, described: "It was a strong blast. This area has a heavy crowd regularly. It was very crowded. I couldn’t see how many people were injured amid the stampede that ensued. There were several people who had fallen on the ground."

More images showing large fires rising high above the street immediately after the attack:

Explosion near Red Fort in Delhi’s Lajpat Rai Market, several vehicles caught fire, and many shop windows were shattered! pic.twitter.com/6g74aA3xt9

— محمد سلمان ‏فارسی (@AlFarsi1201) November 10, 2025

Regional media reports that "A slow-moving vehicle stopped at the red light following which the explosion took place at 6.52 pm. Nearly 2-3 people were seated inside the car, says Delhi Police Commisioner Satish Golcha."

It is currently anything but clear who may have been behind it. There's a likelihood of it being an Islamic terror group, given India has over several years suffered from this kind of sectarian violence, and in some instances anti-Hindu attacks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:25

Facing 30 Years In Jail, NY AG Letitia James Seeks Dismissal Of Mortgage Fraud Charges

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

New York Attorney General Letitia James asked a federal judge in Virginia on Nov. 7 to dismiss a mortgage fraud case against her that she says is a case of selective prosecution.

James, who entered not-guilty pleas to charges of mortgage fraud in Norfolk, Virginia, on Oct. 24, alleges the Trump administration targeted her after she brought a civil action against President Donald Trump for bank fraud in New York. Her trial is scheduled for Jan. 26, 2026.

James is accused of one count of bank fraud and one count of making false statements to a financial institution, after she said on mortgage documents that a house she purchased in Norfolk would be used as a secondary residence.

The U.S. Department of Justice claims that she instead used that home as a rental property for a family of three. Designating the property as a second home instead of a rental property allowed James to save nearly $19,000 in interest and tax credits, the government alleges.

If convicted, she could be sentenced to as many as 30 years in prison and fined $1 million for each count.

James was elected in 2018 after running on a campaign promise to investigate Trump. In September 2022, she filed a lawsuit against Trump, alleging he had overvalued his real estate holdings by billions of dollars.

James stated in the motion that she had brought a lawsuit against Trump, two of his children, and the Trump Organization, which resulted in a court finding in 2024 that they were liable for fraud.

New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ruled against Trump in February 2024, issuing a judgment of more than $460 million, with interest accruing.

The New York Appellate Division’s First Judicial Department, a branch of the New York Supreme Court, tossed the penalty in August in a fractured ruling but left the finding of fraud against Trump undisturbed.

James filed an appeal on Sept. 4 of the ruling throwing out the financial penalty.

In the motion filed on Nov. 7 with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, James said the court should throw out the indictment against her because the federal government “targeted [her] for prosecution because of the President’s genuine animus towards her protected campaign speech and fulfillment of her statutory obligations as New York Attorney General.”

The indictment is “the product of vindictive and selective prosecution, in violation of the Fifth Amendment,” the motion said. “Because this prosecution is flagrantly unconstitutional, this Court should dismiss the indictment with prejudice.”

If a case is dismissed with prejudice, the government is not allowed to refile the case in the same court.

The motion said that the lawsuit against Trump, coupled with James’s “outspoken criticism of the President, triggered six years of targeted attacks.” Trump, along with his allies, “have used every insulting term in their vocabulary to deride AG James and call for criminal penalties in retaliation for the exercise of her rights and fulfillment of her statutory duties to fulfill her obligations as New York state’s attorney general,” it said.

Since his return to the presidency, Trump and “his hand-picked Department of Justice officials exhausted every avenue to secure the payback that the President demanded,” the filing said.

James claimed that despite lengthy efforts, federal officials “could not support a criminal charge” and “that did not sit well with the President,” so Trump removed the interim U.S. attorney and replaced him with Lindsey Halligan, giving her “the singular mission of churning out indictments against his political enemies,” the motion said.

James said she has presented “substantial, clear evidence that she was chosen for prosecution” because she exercised her rights as New York attorney general.

The court should dismiss the indictment with prejudice “to preserve the foundational tenets of due process and equal protection under the law,” the motion said.

James filed a separate motion on Oct. 24 to dismiss the indictment, arguing that Halligan was unlawfully appointed and therefore had no legal authority to file charges.

Halligan “lacked the power to present this case to the grand jury or sign this indictment, and she cannot continue to supervise this prosecution,” the motion said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Department of Justice for comment. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 10:05

The post Tariff Dividend Checks for Dummies (i.e., the People in Policy Debates) appeared first on CEPR.

Venture Global Shares Surge 15% After Signing LNG Pact With Naturgy

Venture Global Inc. has signed a 20-year deal to supply 1 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually to Spain’s Naturgy Energy Group starting in 2030, according to the company, which reported on Monday morning. Shares spiked over 15% on the news before the cash open on Monday.

The agreement is Spain’s first long-term U.S. LNG contract since 2018 and, importantly, will positively benefit the United States' balance of trade with Spain.

Mike Sabel, CEO of Venture Global commented: “Venture Global is honored to expand our long-term partnership with Spain through this new agreement with Naturgy, a leading global LNG company.”

He continued: “This contract will positively impact the U.S. balance of trade with Spain and enhance energy security across the region. Our unmatched speed and execution have made Venture Global a trusted, reliable supplier to the global market. The signing of this agreement, along with the strong commercial momentum we’ve achieved over the past six months, reflects the continued customer confidence in our company and the robust demand for LNG globally. Venture Global remains committed to meeting that demand with flexible, fast, affordable, and dependable long-term supply.”

On Monday morning the company also reported Q3 revenue of $3.33 billion, more than triple a year earlier.

Venture Global said it has delivered 35 cargoes to Spain this year from its Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities in Louisiana. Including the Naturgy deal, along with contracts with Greece’s Atlantic-SEE LNG, Petronas, SEFE Energy, and Eni, total long-term commitments now stand at 5.25 million metric tons per year in H2 2025.

Plaquemines

The company exported a record 100 cargoes in Q3 totaling 372 trillion BTU, up 237% year over year, and said 34 of 36 liquefaction trains at its Plaquemines project are producing LNG, while its CP2 project received final export authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy. Venture Global lowered its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $6.35 billion–$6.5 billion from $6.4 billion–$6.8 billion, citing natural gas price changes.

The agreement supports U.S. plans to double LNG export capacity as producers lock in contracts ahead of a potential supply glut driven by rising output from the U.S. and Qatar.

Based in Arlington, Virginia, Venture Global operates two Louisiana export plants—Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines—and is building a third, CP2. Last week, it also agreed to supply 500,000 tons a year to Greece’s Atlantic SEE LNG Trade SA.

For Naturgy, the deal helps offset future losses from an EU ban on Russian LNG starting in 2027, which will end its existing 20-year contract with Russia’s Yamal LNG.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 09:45

An Open Letter To Bill Maher: It's Inflation, Not The Economy, That's Broken

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

On my run this morning, I was listening to the most recent episode of Real Time with Bill Maher. In the episode, Maher speaks with Rep. Jared Moskowitz and Bill O’Reilly about the election of New York City mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani.

As part of his explanation for why Mamdani was elected, Maher launches into a speech about how the economy isn’t working for many Americans and tacitly admits he doesn’t understand how bifurcated the economy has become:

“I understand why people are angry about the economy, especially in New York…Explain this economy. How some people are eating $36 cheeseburgers and other people are voting for socialism. And I understand why they’re voting for socialism — because they can’t even make ends meet and they’re worried about not eating at all.”

Maher has correctly identified the problem: the gap between the “haves” and “have nots” is getting wider. Elsewhere in the show, as Maher continues to unpack why the economy feels broken, he’s forced to acknowledge that the stock market is at all-time highs. From there, he asks—genuinely confused—why costs are so high and why ordinary people can’t afford basic necessities.

I’ve seen the same with what feels like an endless line of pundits and political commentators who want to discuss the economy but don’t really understand its dynamics. Maher can’t really point to what’s making the economy “bad” under Trump—despite the record stock market—because he doesn’t understand the underlying forces driving the inflation he’s criticizing.

The “health” of the economy has become a moving target for people eager to attack it by any means. One day they’ll judge it by job numbers, the next by the stock market, and on Friday, in Bill Maher’s case, by the cost of consumer goods.

What Maher needs to understand is that the inflation he’s using to condemn the state of the economy stems from a massive, bipartisan failure to confront America’s monetary policy. Both Republicans and Democrats have been negligent in challenging the status quo at the Federal Reserve—whose true mandate seems to be keeping financial asset prices inflated at all costs. As the money supply rises, so does inflation, so widens the inequality gap. And it’s been a bipartisan problem, Bill.

Widening of the inequality gap — the problem Maher is taking exception with — is what happens when the Fed bails out the housing market. It’s what happens when it adds trillions of dollars to its balance sheet to “stimulate” the economy during crises like COVID. And it’s what will happen again during the next sharp deleveraging—when the Fed inevitably steps in to rescue the system once more. As inflation is a tide that causes the Top 10% of personal wealth holders to get richer and increases the cost of goods, the “haves” don’t feel a damn thing, while a larger and larger portion of the “have nots” are brutalized by not being able to afford normal consumer goods.

Here’s what Maher’s problem looks like in chart form:

This is a recurring process that grows more regressive and accelerates in size every time Fed stimulus occurs. This ongoing cycle widens the inequality gap—precisely the issue both political parties claim to care about. The relentless expansion of the money supply drives up consumer prices, while the Fed’s constant bailouts of financial assets—buying corporate bonds and rescuing banks—further enrich the wealthy and deepen inequality.

I summarized this phenomenon in an article I wrote earlier this year, where I wrote that while both parties were guilty of reckless monetary policy, Democrats’ fiscal approach made their hypocrisy worse. I argued that Democrats promoted endless spending and higher taxes under the illusion that the Federal Reserve could print unlimited money without consequence.

I noted that this mindset had driven U.S. debt past $35 trillion and, combined with the Fed’s constant bailouts, had severely widened the wealth gap. Each round of money printing made the rich richer while crushing the lower and middle classes.

Even though he’s a Democrat, I like Bill Maher. I respect him because I’ve seen him put common sense above partisan loyalty and question his own side’s narratives. I’ve watched him think critically about issues and evolve his perspective over time.

I believe Maher has the ability to see clearly why the economy didn’t work under Biden, why it isn’t working for the lower and middle classes under Trump now, and why it won’t work under whoever comes next. The only real question is how quickly things will regress—and that depends on how soon we’re driven back to a point where the Federal Reserve once again feels compelled to intervene and bail out the entire economy.

Not only would I love for Bill to see this clearly, I’d love to see him step outside the box and invite an Austrian economist—someone like Peter Schiff—onto his show to help explain why we’re headed toward one of two inevitable outcomes: either a social revolt sparked by widening inequality, or a sovereign debt crisis that permanently destroys the U.S. dollar.

If anyone knows Bill, please get him this message.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 09:25

Global Markets Soar As US Government Set To Reopen After Democrats Cave

Last week, around the peak of the repo crisis we said that while the Treasury was soaking up most market liquidity via its Treasury General Account (which had ballooned to over $1TN), any sign of a govt reopening would send risk assets sharply higher (as this liquidity would then flood back into the market), and sure enough, futures are surging this morning as it now appear that the US government shutdown is finally over after Democrats folded on Sunday night and agreed to reopen the govt with no victory in hand, having kept the government shut for almost 40 days, a record, for no reason at all. As of 9:00am S&P 500 futures were up 0.9%, after the index closed just above its 50-day moving average on Friday — sharply bouncing back after a dip below the threshold; Nasdaq 100 futures jump 1.4% on optimism that the government shutdown may end soon, along with easing US-China tensions and Trump’s bid to appeal to cash-strapped Americans with a tariff “dividend.” European and Asian stocks are also sharply higher. Premarket, Mag7 and Semis are the notable outperformers with AMD, AVGO, GOOG, META, MU, NVDA all up at 2% - 3.5% pre-mkt. Cyclicals are also seeing a pre-mkt bid while parts of Defensives are in the red. Bond yields are +3-4bp with USD flat. In commodities, the story is the strength in Ags and Precious Metals with the former seeing +1% move across much of the Ag complex and gold and silver up 2% and 3.3%, respectively, outpacing Base Metals which are also bid up. With the gov’t reopening, the market appear to be shifting its view back to fundamentals which remain strong for earnings and macro, but likely not enough for the Fed to pause/skip in December, which should benefit risk-assets.

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are higher (Nvidia +3.1%, Tesla +2.1%, Alphabet +2%, Meta Platforms +1.4%, Amazon +1%, Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.5%).

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying amid risk-on sentiment as lawmakers move closer to a deal to end the longest shutdown in US history.
• Health insurers, including Centene (CNC), are falling as lawmakers move closer to ending the shutdown without securing a health care win.
• Gold stocks such as Newmont (NEM) are outperforming as the precious metal rises for a second day, with a weakening US economy increasing the chance of a rate cut next month and outweighing progress on ending the government shutdown in Washington.
• Celestica Inc. (CLS) shares are up 6% after Citi upgraded the electronic components company to buy from neutral.
• Grab Holdings Ltd. (GRAB) gains 6% after an Indonesian government official said the Southeast Asian nation’s sovereign wealth fund is set to be involved in a plan to combine GoTo Gojek Tokopedia’s parent with Grab.
• Metsera Inc. (MTSR) shares tumble 14% after Novo Nordisk A/S declined to further raise its offer for the US maker of an experimental weight-loss drug, bringing a bidding war with Pfizer Inc. to an end.
• Monday.com (MNDY) sinks 16% after the software company narrowed its full-year revenue forecast. It also reported its third-quarter results.
• Sunrun Inc. shares are up 6% in after Guggenheim upgraded the solar energy company to buy from neutral.
• TreeHouse Foods (THS) soars 20% after European buyout firm Investindustrial has agreed to buy the private-label food manufacturer.

In corporate news, Pfizer agreed to buy Metsera for up to $10 billion, prevailing over Novo Nordisk in a bidding war. Visa and Mastercard are said to be close to a new agreement to settle a two-decade legal spat with merchants. UPS and FedEx have grounded their McDonnell Douglas MD-11 aircraft fleet on Boeing’s recommendation after a crash in Louisville. 

In AI news, TSMC reported slowing growth in monthly revenue, highlighting uncertainty over the sustainability of the AI boom even as industry behemoths including Nvidia chase more chip orders. Robinhood plans to give amateur investors access to private AI companies whose valuations have increased significantly, CEO Vlad Tenev told the FT in an interview.

The risk-on mood spread across markets, lifting oil, metals and crypto. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was on track for its biggest gain since June. US Treasuries fell across the curve, pushing the 10-year yield up four basis points to 4.13%. Gold also advanced on prospects of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Bitcoin continued to move higher after flirting with the key $100k level early last week, while gold and oil rose. 

Monday’s optimistic tone offered relief after a volatile week, when worries over stretched valuations fueled a sharp selloff in the biggest winners of the artificial-intelligence boom. Ending the shutdown would give investors greater clarity on key economic data such as jobs and inflation, helping to lift the fog around the outlook for interest rates.  

The Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance a bill to end the government shutdown, with a group of moderate Democrats breaking with their party leaders to support the deal. Assuming the government reopens in the coming weeks and statistics start moving again, Fed officials still face a data fog with information compiled via retroactive surveys and other methods — if the figures are published at all.

“Markets are taking very positively to the news of the potential resolution of the US shutdown,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “We were very constructive on the market anyway and we saw last week’s selloff as a little bit of a buying opportunity.”

That said, how soon the shutdown will end remains uncertain. The Senate has yet to schedule a final vote, while the measure must also pass the House before reaching President Donald Trump for his signature. 

“It’s only the opening act in what could still be a drawn-out political drama, but investors are seizing on any sign of progress,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote. “They need to understand where the US economy stands, where inflation and jobs are headed and what the Fed should do next.”

As usually happens, we are now about to see a short squeeze, as discretionary and systematic investors cut exposure last week as simple momentum chasing strategies continued to stumble, according to Deutsche Bank strategists, aggregate equity positioning remains modestly overweight. A slowdown in tech and AI would be far more damaging to the US and emerging markets than to other developed regions. Since early 2024, tech and AI’s weight has risen from 39% to 50% in the US.

Elsewhere, Bessent said Trump’s suggestion, in a Sunday social media post, that Americans may receive a tariff “dividend” of at least $2,000 could come via the tax cuts passed in his signature economic policy bill earlier this year. US and China suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices. 

Third-quarter earnings are just about over, and the conclusion is corporate America is performing very well as earnings rise at the fastest pace in four years. Companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported earnings for the third quarter — about 80% of the index by market cap — have grown the bottom line by 14.6%, effectively doubling what analysts were expecting. Looking ahead, strategists are bullish on the outlook.  Strategists at UBS Group AG expect the S&P 500 to climb to 7,500 next year on the back of solid earnings growth, implying an 11% gain from current levels. Their peers at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, see clear signs of a recovery in corporate profits.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 1.4% as hopes for a deal to end the US government shutdown boost risk sentiment. Diageo shares surge after the company names former Tesco boss Dave Lewis as CEO. The technology and mining sectors lead gains — with ASML up as much as 2.9% — while personal care products shares lag. Technology stocks led gains in Europe, as they did in Asia after Nvidia CEO Huang said he had asked TSMC for more chip supplies as AI demand remained strong. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: 

• Diageo shares rise as much as 7.9%, the most since November 2020, after the UK distiller named Lewis as CEO.
• Kingspan advances as much as 8% after the construction materials company gave commentary on next year that Morgan Stanley described as supportive. Growth optionality presents upside to medium-term estimates, the analyst says.
• Siemens Energy shares rises as much as 5.5% after Jefferies upgraded its rating to buy, saying the shares continue to look undervalued despite more than doubling since the start of the year. 
• IAG shares rise as much as 6.7%, recovering some post-earnings losses from Friday’s session. 
• Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 3.8% after its withdrawal from a takeover battle for obesity drug developer Metsera prompted relief among some investors that it won’t be spending $10 billion on an unproven asset.
• Camurus shares jump as much as 13%, the most in more than five months, after it reported positive topline results from an early-stage obesity treatment study.
• JTC shares fall as much as 5% after Permira agreed to buy the corporate services firm for £2.3 billion.

Earlier, Asian stocks rose, supported by a rebound in technology shares following a selloff last week on concerns over lofty valuations. Hopes of a possible end to the longest US government shutdown also lifted sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1%, with Tencent, TSMC and SK Hynix among the top contributors to the advance. South Korea’s Kospi gauge led gains in the region after reports on a potential dividend tax cut and likely increase in domestic equity allocation by a pension fund boosted optimism. The MSCI Asia benchmark has climbed more than 25% in 2025 — on track to outperform the S&P 500 by the widest margin in 16 years. Shares in mainland China reversed earlier losses to close 0.4% higher after the world’s two largest economies suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices. Equities also rose in Hong Kong. Here Are the Most Notable Movers 

• Mercari shares jumped after first-quarter earnings beat analyst expectations on greater cost efficiencies. Omron shares declined after its earnings disappointed analysts.
• China suspends countermeasures for one year against five US units of Hanwha Ocean from Nov. 10, according to a statement from the Ministry of Commerce.
• GoTo Gojek Tokopedia shares surged to the highest level in three months, after an Indonesian government official said the Southeast Asian nation’s sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, is set to be involved in a plan to combine its parent with rival Grab Holdings Ltd.
• Transformers & Rectifiers India shares fall as much as 20%, the most since July 2023, after second-quarter profit and revenue missed analysts’ estimate.
• Subaru reported net income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Nissin Foods cut its operating income guidance for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate.
• Trent shares fall as much as 6.5%, most in over four months, after moderation in second-quarter sales growth triggered brokerages to cut their earnings estimates. Citi downgraded its rating on the company to a sell after results published Friday.
• Yangzijiang Financial Holding shares fall as much as 61% in Singapore as they start to trade excluding their entitlement to the maritime investments business being spun off into Yangzijiang Maritime Development.
• Intensifying competition in India’s online grocery delivery space is weighing on the shares of market leader Eternal Ltd. and its listed rival Swiggy Ltd.
• Mercari shares rose as much as 15%, the most since Feb. 7, after the Tokyo-based online marketplace company reported 1Q earnings that beat analyst expectations on greater cost efficiencies.

In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback and taking USD/JPY back above 154. The Norwegian krone is among the outperformers, rising 0.5% after CPI surprised to the upside.

In rates, Treasury fall as haven demand wanes, pushing US 10-year yield up 3 bps to 4.13%. German government bonds also edge lower.

hold modest losses in early US trading after gapping lower at the Asia open as signs lawmakers may end the government shutdown stoked risk appetite. US yields are 3bp to 4bp higher with curve spreads little changed; 10-year, higher by more than 3bp near 4.125%, is ~2bp cheaper vs bunds and gilts in the sector.  $58 billion 3-year note auction at 1pm New York time has WI yield near 3.60%, about 2bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.8b.  IG dollar issuance slate empty so far but expected to build ahead of the holiday Tuesday; around $40 billion of supply is projected this week, following a combined $136 billion over the past two weeks.

In commodities, Spot gold climbs $80 to ~$4,080/oz. WTI crude futures add 0.2% to around $60 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 1.5% to around $106,000.

The US economic calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Daly (8:30am) and Musalem (9:45am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +1.4%
• DAX +1.8%
• CAC 40 +1.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.13%
• VIX -0.4 points at 18.7
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1218.71
• euro little changed at $1.1568
• WTI crude +0.8% at $60.24/barrel

Top Overnight News

• A group of Democrats broke with their party and supported a deal to end the longest-ever US government shutdown. The Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance the bill, though it has yet to schedule a vote for final passage. BBG
• Democratic lawmakers and liberal grassroots groups erupted Sunday night as moderate Senate Democrats moved to cut a deal with Republicans that would put an end to the government shutdown. Democrats are primarily frustrated that Affordable Care Act tax credits will not be extended. Axios
• More than 10,000 flights were delayed or canceled yesterday as a snow storm in Chicago compounded the effect of a third day of government-mandated restrictions. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told Fox that flights may “slow to a trickle” during Thanksgiving if the shutdown persists. BBG
• Scott Bessent suggested to ABC that Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff “dividend” may be referring to a decrease in taxes, but he hasn’t spoken about it with the president. BBG
• US President Trump called for Senate Republicans to send government money given to health insurance companies and send it directly to the people.
• Boeing spokesperson said they recommended to the three operators of the MD-11 freighter that they suspend flight operations, while UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) spokespersons said they made the decision to immediately ground their MD-11 fleets following the Louisville crash.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said US GDP could be negative in Q4 if the government shutdown drags on.
• US Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to withhold billions in funding for food aid for now. It was separately reported that the Trump admin ordered US states to stop paying full food aid benefits to low-income American families and said that they are "unauthorised".
• China added more than a dozen fentanyl precursors to a list of controlled exports to the US, Mexico and Canada, in an apparent move to implement commitments made in a trade deal reached between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump last month. BBG
• China has suspended retaliatory port fees on US-linked vessels for one year, following Washington’s pause of similar charges under its “Section 301” investigation targeting the Chinese maritime sector. SCMP
• The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends. WSJ
• Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi said on Monday she would work on setting a new fiscal target extending through several years to allow more flexible spending, essentially watering down the country's commitment to fiscal consolidation. She also renewed calls for the Bank of Japan to go slow on interest rate hikes, despite signs that most central bank policymakers would prefer to see a resumption of monetary tightening sooner rather than later. RTRS
• The ECB’s Luis de Guindos said the current level of euro-zone borrowing costs is appropriate but officials must remain cautious. BBG
• Fed survey on Friday noted that policy uncertainty, including trade policy, central bank independence and availability of economic data, was the most frequently cited risk to US financial stability, while AI was added as a top stability concern, and respondents also cited geopolitical risks, inflation, monetary tightening, and higher long-term rates as top salient risks.
• Fed’s Williams (voter) said the gap between rich and poor risks a US downturn and suggested that poorer Americans’ mounting problems could be a factor in whether the central bank cuts rates in December, while he sees a balancing act for the December rate meeting, according to FT.
• NVIDIA CEO said they have very strong demand in Blackwell chips and asked TSMC (2330 TT) for more wafers to meet strong AI demand, while he stated that business is growing strongly and there will be a shortage of different things, as well as noted said Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have scaled up capacity.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR announced the suspension of action in the Section 301 investigation of China's targeting of maritime logistics and shipbuilding sectors for dominance, with the action to be suspended for one year as of 00:01 EST on November 10th, while the USTR said the US will negotiate with China pursuant to Section 301 regarding the issues raised in the investigation.
• FBI Director Patel visited China last week to talk about fentanyl and law enforcement, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said it suspended the 2024 ban on approving exports to the US of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials until 27th November 2026.
• China halted special port fees for US vessels for one year and removed sanctions on US-linked units of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) for a year.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said China has taken measures to exempt the export of Nexperia chips compliant with civilian use from export controls, and it welcomes the European side to continue to urge the Dutch side to correct ‘wrongful’ practices. Mofcom also said that China hopes the Netherlands will promote the early resolution of the Nexperia semiconductor issue, and that China agreed to a request from the Dutch Economics Ministry to send officials to China for talks.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said they welcome confirmation given by China’s MOFCOM on further simplification of export procedures for Nexperia chips to EU and global clients.
• India and Australia held further talks on boosting trade and economic ties, while they reaffirmed a desire for an “early conclusion” of a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, according to Bloomberg citing a statement by the Indian government after India’s Commerce Minister Goyal met Australian Trade Minister Farrell.
• China Commerce Ministry said it makes adjustments to management catalogues of drug-related precursor chemicals; will require license for export of certain chemicals to the US, China, Canada and Mexico.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher amid the improving US-China trade environment and with hopes of ending the US government shutdown as several Democrats supported Republicans to pass a measure through the procedural vote in a rare Senate session on Sunday. ASX 200 gained with the upside led by the mining and tech sectors, while financials also showed resilience despite  ANZ positing a decline in fiscal 2025 cash profit. Nikkei 225 rallied amid a weaker currency and as participants digested earnings, while it was also reported that Japan's GPIF posted a July-September quarterly investment return of JPY 14.45tln. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp ultimately conformed to the upbeat mood amid the improving US-China trade environment, as both the US and China relaxed trade restrictions on each other, while there was also inflation data over the weekend which printed above forecasts, although factory gate prices remained in deflation.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the October 29th-30th meeting noted that one member said the BoJ is expected to keep raising interest rates if the economic and price forecasts materialise, while a member said it is important to check the initial momentum towards next year’s wage talks as firms firm up plans after US tariffs were set at 15%. It was stated that the key to future policy decisions is whether firms maintain positive wage-setting behaviour, while there was the opinion that uncertainty remains over the outlook, but Japan will see conditions align to adjust the policy rate depending on economic and price developments. Furthermore, a member said there is no need to rush, but interest rates must be raised without losing appropriate timing.
• BoJ's Nakagawa said the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices, while she added the BoJ will make appropriate policy decisions, taking into account that uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains high.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government must restore market trust in Japan's finances, but boosting investment is also needed to strengthen economic growth, while she is not ruling out a sales tax cut as an option in the future, although the immediate priority is to compile a package of steps to cushion the blow from rising cost of living.
• China’s National Radio and Television Administration launched a campaign to address the spread of inappropriate animated videos.
• UK probes whether buses made in China can be turned off from far away after Norway found Yutong vehicles could be ‘stopped or rendered inoperable’ by the Chinese company, according to FT.
• Earthquake of magnitude 6.21 strikes east cost of Honshu in Japan.
• China issues measures on boosting private investment via Xinhua. China to also encourage private capital to invest in railway, nuclear power. Will clean up "unreasonable" access restriction for services sector. China will guide private capital to participate in low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace and other fields in an orderly manner. China to meet reasonable credit demand for private firms.

European bourses (+1.3%) are stronger across the board, with sentiment boosted amidst progress related to the US Government shutdown. Price action saw indices open on a strong footing and continue to rise as the morning progressed. European sectors are almost entirely in the green, with a clear cyclical bias. Tech and Basic Resources leads whilst Optimised Personal Care lags. For Basic Resources specifically, the sector has been lifted by upside across underlying metals prices - upside facilitated by the risk sentiment and better-than-expected Chinese inflation figures over the weekend. US equity futures (ES +1%, NQ +1.4%, RTY +1.2%) are entirely in the green, with clear outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ. Overall, sentiment boosted by the shutdown-related progress; on that, eight democrats voted with Republicans to advance a deal which would reopen the government and keep it funded until the end of January. Separately, NVIDIA (+3.5%) benefits from the risk tone and after CEO Huang said that the Co. has very strong demand for Blackwell chips and asked TSMC (2330 TT) for more wafers to meet strong AI demand.

Top European News

• ECB's de Guindos said the ECB firmly believes the level of rates are correct.
• UK faces an increase in young adults leaving the country owing to low salaries, rising tax burden and a lack of affordable housing, according to wealth managers cited by FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly set to increase the rate of dividend tax, according to The Telegraph.
• ECB’s Sleijpen cautioned against signing off too easily on joint European bonds and said they ultimately only lead to higher debt, according to Bloomberg.
• Fitch affirmed Ireland at AA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Latvia at A-; Outlook Stable.

FX

• The DXY trades choppily after a rangebound APAC session, showing a mixed tone against major peers as participants digest upbeat US–China trade headlines and optimism over a potential resolution to the US government shutdown. The latter followed reports that eight Democrats backed the Republican spending bill to advance past a key procedural vote. Looking ahead, the data docket is void of any pertinent releases, so focus will be on speeches from Fed's Daly and Musalem. The DXY currently holds within a tight 99.46–99.74 band, comfortably inside Friday’s broader 99.40–99.87 range.
• EUR/USD trades without clear direction around the 1.1550 mark amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone, while ECB’s Sleijpen warned against rushing into the issuance of joint European bonds, arguing such a move would ultimately burden the bloc with higher debt levels. Regional newsflow was light through the morning, leaving the pair largely at the mercy of broader dollar dynamics. Despite the softer USD backdrop, the euro failed to meaningfully capitalise, with upside momentum likely constrained by sizeable option expiries clustered below and around the 1.1500 handle. EUR/USD currently trades within a 1.1542–1.1583 band.
• USD/JPY climbed at the open as improved sentiment surrounding US–China trade ties and renewed hopes for a US government reopening drove outflows from haven currencies. The JPY stands as the clear laggard among the majors, with moves largely reflecting an unwind of prior risk premia rather than fresh domestic developments. Comments from Japanese PM Takaichi ahead of the European open failed to elicit any notable market reaction. The pair gapped higher from Friday’s 153.41 close, opening at 153.77 before reclaiming the 154 handle. USD/JPY now trades within a 153.40–154.23 range.
• GBP/USD eased slightly overnight from last week’s highs but remained confined to a narrow range around the 1.3150 mark amid a quiet news backdrop. The high-beta currency finds modest support from a softer dollar and improved risk sentiment, though gains are capped as traders exercise caution ahead of the November 26th Budget. The Telegraph reported overnight that UK Chancellor Reeves is preparing to raise the dividend tax rate as part of fiscal tightening efforts. GBP/USD currently trades within a 1.3136–1.3184 range.
• The Antipodeans are the standout gainers amid a broadly constructive risk tone and ongoing USD softness, benefiting from the easing in US–China trade tensions and firmer Chinese inflation data over the weekend. Chinese CPI and PPI figures surprised modestly to the upside, reinforcing optimism around domestic demand stabilisation. AUD outpaced its Kiwi counterpart, aided by strength in gold and copper prices, while NZD’s gains were more measured as AUD/NZD extended its advance beyond the 1.1550 mark.
• China will raise its retail prices of gasoline and diesel from Tuesday, based on recent changes in international oil prices, according to Xinhua.

Fixed Income

• USTs are underperforming today and currently reside at session lows within a 112-15 to 112-23 range. Downside comes after a week of safe haven-related inflows after a string of poor private labour market figures, downbeat UoM sentiment metrics, AI-bubble related fears and ongoing US government shutdown; the latter has recently shown signs of progress, which has boosted risk sentiment today. In terms of details, the US Government shutdown is showing some early signs of progress after eight democrats voted with Republicans to advance a deal which would reopen the government and keep it funded until the end of January. Price action today has only really been one direction, and that’s downwards; overnight saw the USTs open at 112-23 (highest today) and continue to trundle lower to make a fresh trough of 112-15 in early European hours.
• Bunds are weaker today, albeit to a lesser extent than global peers; currently trading off by around 10 ticks in a 128.80 to 128.96. Gapped below 129.00 at the open, and continued to drip lower overnight and into the European open. However, the German paper then caught a slight bid just after the cash open, which took Bunds back a couple of ticks above opening levels, to make a current peak of 129.02. Really not much from a European perspective today, aside from a downbeat EZ Sentix print, which printed below the most pessimist of analyst expectations.
• Gilts are on the back foot, in-fitting global peers but to a lesser magnitude than their US counterparts. Newsflow ultimately solely focused on the looming UK budget at the end of this month; on that, Chancellor Reeves is reportedly set to increase the rate of dividend tax, according to The Telegraph. This follows on from reports via the same press which suggested that Reeves was looking to hike income tax by 2%, whilst simultaneously cutting NI by that same magnitude. Gilts have seemingly been getting accustomed to continued reports of tax-related newsflow, after Reeves provided a slight reprieve to markets are she failed to reiterate her tax-related pledges at a presser in recent weeks.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have bid higher to start the week as it follows the positive sentiment seen stateside as the Senate passes the funding bill. WTI and Brent gradually moved c. USD 0.65/bbl higher throughout the APAC session to peak at USD 60.38/bbl and USD 64.24/bbl, respectively. As the European session got underway, benchmarks briefly extended on gains before sharply reversing lower to a trough of USD 60.01/bbl and 63.85/bbl despite a lack of drivers. On geopolitics, Russia launched over 400 drones and 45 missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• Spot XAU has trended higher throughout APAC trade and into the European session despite the potential end of the US government shutdown, which should act as a headwind for haven assets. XAU drove higher straight from the open at USD 4k/oz and has broken above the highs of the 9-day range at USD 4050/oz. The yellow metal has peaked at USD 4085/oz and is currently trading at session highs.
• Base metals have advanced higher over hopes of the end of the US government shutdown. 3M LME Copper gapped higher to USD 10.75k/t and bid higher throughout the APAC session to a peak of USD 10.83k/t as the European session gets underway. Currently, the red metal is oscillating in a tight c. USD 30/t band.
• Iraq set the December Basrah medium crude Official Selling Price to Asia at minus USD 0.35/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, while it set the OSP to Europe at minus USD 2.95/bbl vs Dated Brent and set OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.35/bbl vs ASCI.
• White House said Hungary received an exemption from US sanctions for using Russian energy for a year.
• ExxonMobil CEO said they will “pace” spending on low-carbon projects due to disappointing customer demand and with government policies failing to provide the right incentives to create viable markets, according to FT.
• Industry group warned that EU climate rules risk energy security and that methane emission regulations due in 2027 will force cargoes to be diverted from Europe, according to FT.
• Shanghai Gold Exchange is to waive transaction fees for some gold contracts from November 11 to the end of 2026.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Fed’s Daly Speaks on Bloomberg TV
• 9:45 am: Fed’s Musalem on BTV

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel received the body of a deceased soldier from the Red Cross.
• Taliban spokesperson said the ceasefire that has been established has not been violated by them so far, and it will continue to be observed, while he added that Pakistan is not ready to take responsibility for maintaining internal security of their own country, so negotiations didn’t yield a result.
• Turkish President Erdogan said a high-level Turkish delegation will visit Pakistan within a week to discuss Afghanistan ceasefire talks, aiming to conclude the process.
• Syria carried out a nationwide pre-emptive operation targeting Islamic State cells.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin, on US President Trump's remarks about ending the war in Ukraine in the not-too-distant future, said Russia would also like to end the conflict as soon as possible. Russia remains open to resolving the conflict through diplomacy, but the situation is stuck. Foreign Minister Lavrov continues to do his job, ignoring fake news.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched 450 drones and 45 missiles to attack Ukraine’s energy sector and infrastructure.
• Ukrainian drone attack disrupted power and heating supply in Russia’s Voronezh.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Rybne in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region and Russian forces hit energy facilities supporting the operations of Ukraine’s defence industry, while it noted that Ukrainian attempts to unblock surrounded units in the Kupiansk and Pokrovsk areas were repelled.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that he is ready to hold an in-person meeting with US Secretary of State Rubio and that regular contact with the US is important for discussing the Ukrainian issue, but noted that ending the conflict in Ukraine is impossible without eliminating its causes and taking Russian interests into account. Lavrov said work is being undertaken on Russian President Putin’s order to prepare proposals for potential Russian nuclear tests and that Russia is currently awaiting confirmation from the US that the anchorage agreements remain in force, while he stated that the US informed Russia via diplomatic channels that it is considering Putin’s proposal to adhere to the limits set out in nuclear arms control treaty after February 2026.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea’s Defence Minister said North Korea will show more offensive actions and that the US nuclear carrier escalates tension in the Korean peninsula, while he added that US Secretary of Defence Hegseth's visit to the DMZ shows a hostile nature.
• China’s mission to the EU said China lodged a representation with the EU on Taiwan’s Vice President entering the European Parliament.

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It looks like white smoke is finally emerging from Capitol Hill as late on Sunday night in the Senate there was a 60-40 procedural vote to advance a bill that would end the shutdown. Just about enough moderate Democrats have broken ranks with party leadership to progress a bill that would fund Agriculture, Veterans Affairs and the operations of Congress for the full-year, even if other agencies would only be funded through to January 30th. It seems to persuade the moderate Democrats to support the bill, a vote has been promised in December in extending the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that run out at year-end. The timetable from here is slightly less clear but we could get a full vote today or tomorrow assuming no procedural delays.

Probability markets are starting to price in the end game with a 98% expectation that the shutdown will be over by November 30th on Polymarket, a contract high. Interestingly we hit a contract low of 35% around midnight Saturday for a reopening by November 15th (this Saturday). However yesterday this spiked up and is now at 94% as I type. S&P 500 futures are currently +0.71% with the Nasdaq equivalent up +1.23%. 10yr USTs are +3.9bps at just under 4.14%. Asia equity markets are also positive with the KOSPI (+3.13%) leading the way, followed by the Nikkei (+1.28%), with both indexes benefiting primarily from a rebound in technology shares after significant losses last week. The Hang Seng is +1.22% but mainland Chinese markets are flat, perhaps after better inflation numbers over the weekend (see below) may reduce the need for larger stimulus. DAX futures are +1.44% higher as European markets closed at the US lows before the end of the shutdown speculation started to mount late on Friday.   

Once the government reopens, markets will face a surge of delayed data releases. Historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown suggests that September’s employment report could be among the first to hit the wires, potentially within three business days of reopening. We expect payrolls to rebound sharply, with headline and private payrolls both forecast at +75k, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. So we could get this Thursday or Friday.

Expanding upon this week, on the policy front, the Federal Reserve calendar is busy but unlikely to deliver major surprises. Today brings remarks from St. Louis Fed’s Musalem, who has maintained a hawkish tone. Wednesday is the most crowded day, featuring speeches from Williams, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins across conferences on Treasury markets, fintech and community banking. Later in the week, Musalem and Hammack will join fireside chats, while Schmid and Bostic close out Friday with discussions on energy and economic trends. Beyond Capitol Hill and the Fed, investors will monitor the Supreme Court following last week’s oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case. Judging by the tone of questioning, the Court appears sceptical of the Administration’s position, suggesting a likely affirmation of lower court rulings. A decision could potentially come quickly, but history points to a longer timeline— with the average time line around 15 weeks - but it could stretch out to the end of the term in June.

While US politics and data dominate, global developments will also shape sentiment. In Europe, the UK releases third-quarter GDP on Thursday and labour market data on Tuesday, alongside inflation prints in Denmark and Norway (today) and Germany’s ZEW survey (tomorrow). In Asia, China has its monthly economic activity data dump on Friday. Japan will publish the Economy Watchers Survey tomorrow and producer price inflation on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain in focus globally. In the United States, results from Cisco, Walt Disney and Applied Materials will be closely watched. European heavyweights reporting include Siemens, Deutsche Telekom and Enel, while Asia sees Tencent, JD.com, SoftBank and Sony. With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported, the bulk of earnings season is behind us, but these names will still provide important signals on sectoral health and global demand.

Overnight, the minutes from the BOJ’s October meeting indicated that the nine-member board appears more inclined towards a near-term rate hike, aligning with the expectations of numerous market participants and consistent with Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent indications that such a move could occur in the upcoming months.  

Yesterday we discovered that Chinese inflation surprised to the upside in October rising +0.2% mom against expectations of -0.1% mom and a -0.3% mom decline in September. YoY PPI edged a tenth stronger than expected at -2.1%, up a couple of tenths from September. The anti-involution campaign that has been aimed at reducing prices wars across the economy seems to be having some impact but much of this month's increase can be attributed to seasonals, some of it around Golden Week spending. So we'll have to see if it gets repeated next month to see if a trend is in.

Last week, markets turned risk-averse as negative sentiment around technology and some disappointing private jobs data triggered a global equity sell-off. In the United States, the S&P 500 fell by -1.63% over the week, although it managed a modest +0.13% gain on Friday and rebounded from being down -1.32% as Europe went home for the week. The Nasdaq fared worse, dropping -3.04% (-0.21% Friday, but off the -2.13% lows for the day), marking its weakest performance since Liberation Day week.

Treasuries had a volatile but ultimately muted week. The 2-year yield slipped -1.2bps (+0.7bps Friday), while the 10-year rose +2.0bps to 4.10% (+1.4bps Friday). Across Europe, the STOXX 600 declined -1.24% (-0.55% Friday), even as the 10-year Bund yield climbed +3.3bps over the week.

The week could have been worse were it not for a late burst of optimism on Friday afternoon surrounding US government shutdown negotiations. That helped volatility ease, with the VIX falling -0.42pts on Friday to 19.08, though it was still up +1.64pts on the week after trading above 22 earlier in the day. Despite this reprieve, risk assets broadly struggled, led by Big Tech as lofty valuations weighed on sentiment. Palantir dropped -7.94% on Thursday and -11.24% for the week after failing to provide clear visibility for 2026. Concerns spread to the Mag-7 cohort, which fell -3.21% over the week (-0.96% Friday), with Nvidia (-7.08%, +0.04% Friday), Tesla (-5.92%, -3.68% Friday), and Meta (-4.11%, +0.45% Friday) among the laggards. Credit markets also came under pressure, with US IG spreads widening by +4bps and HY by +15bps.

Signs of disruption from the looming US government shutdown dented sentiment for most of the week, while a sparse data calendar offered little relief. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell -3.3pts to 50.3, its lowest level in three years, while confidence in government economic policy dropped to the lowest point in the series’ 50-year history. Other data included a weak ISM manufacturing print and higher Challenger layoffs, marking the worst October for job cuts since 2003. These negatives offset a solid ADP employment report and stronger ISM services data earlier in the week. The US-centric risk-off tone undermined the dollar, with the index down -0.20% over the week.

Europe also delivered a heavy data flow with a mixed impact. The Bank of England held rates at 4%, but the vote split was more dovish than expected at 5-4. Our UK economist maintains a call for a 25bps cut in December, followed by quarterly reductions in March and June, taking Bank Rate to 3.25%. Elsewhere, investors digested weaker-than-expected Euro Area retail sales for September, German industrial production, and UK construction PMI. These disappointments contributed to declines in major indices: STOXX 600 (-1.24%, -0.55% Friday), DAX (-1.62%, -0.69% Friday), and CAC 40 (-2.10%, -0.18% Friday). European credit spreads widened too, with IG up +7bps and HY up +9bps. Europe went home near the lows for the day for the US on Friday though.

Finally, Bitcoin’s retreat continued, falling -5.11% over the week despite a +2.73% gain on Friday. Brent crude also slipped -2.21% to $63.63/bbl, though it edged +0.39% higher on Friday as concerns about an emerging oil market surplus resurfaced.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 09:15

Trump Pardons Rudy Giuliani, Others Involved In Bid To Challenge 2020 Election

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has pardoned a number of prominent figures involved in his effort to challenge the 2020 election outcome, according to U.S. Pardon Attorney Ed Martin on Nov. 9.

A proclamation document shared by Martin on social media named more than 70 individuals, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and attorneys Sidney Powell and John Eastman, all accused of involvement in Trump’s bid to challenge the 2020 election results.

The pardons apply to conduct tied to the individuals’ involvement in activities surrounding the 2020 presidential election, as well as any conduct related to “their efforts to expose voting fraud and vulnerabilities in the 2020 Presidential Election,” according to the document.

“This proclamation ends a grave national injustice perpetrated upon the American people following the 2020 Presidential Election and continues the process of national reconciliation,” the document states.

The pardon would only cover federal charges brought against those listed. The proclamation also explicitly states that the pardon does not apply to Trump.

Neither Trump nor the White House released a statement regarding the pardons. The proclamation was signed by the president on Nov. 7, according to the document.

The Epoch Times reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

In 2023, Trump was indicted by then-special counsel Jack Smith over allegations that he improperly sought to overturn the 2020 election results. He pleaded not guilty, and the case was ultimately dismissed in November 2024.

After taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, Trump granted pardons and commutations to people convicted of offenses stemming from the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.

Then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, defeating Trump, the incumbent president. Trump challenged the results in some states, alleging voter fraud.

In June, Trump called for a special counsel to investigate the 2020 election results and once more alleged fraud, after FBI Director Kash Patel disclosed that the Chinese communist regime may have conspired to influence the race.

“The evidence is MASSIVE and OVERWHELMING. A Special Prosecutor must be appointed. This cannot be allowed to happen again in the United States of America,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

His post came after Patel stated on June 16 that the FBI had located “documents which detail alarming allegations related to the 2020 U.S. election, including allegations of interference by the CCP [Chinese Communist Party].”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 08:45

Trump To Host Syrian President At White House

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump will host Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House on Nov. 10, in the first visit by a Syrian leader to Washington.

The meeting comes six months after Trump and Sharaa met in Saudi Arabia and days after the United Nations and the United States lifted terrorism-related sanctions on the Syrian leader.

Sharaa took office in December 2024 after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, following a 13-year civil war that ended with a victory by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) means Organization for the Liberation of Syria in Arabic. It began as al-Nusra Front, an affiliate of al-Qaeda, the Islamist terrorist group founded by Osama bin Laden. The group was designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department in 2018, but it was removed from the list this year.

Last December, the United States dropped a $10 million counter-terror bounty against Sharaa, who was previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Golani. The decision coincided with a U.S. diplomatic visit to Syria on Dec. 20, 2024.

A now-deleted bounty notice against Sharaa notes his role in founding the Nusra Front and leading the group through its reorganization into HTS. The bounty notice further stated that the group had taken part in kidnappings and killings in Syria over the years, including the 2015 slayings of 20 Druze villagers in the Idlib province.

Last week, the U.N. Security Council lifted terror-related sanctions designations on him and Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab.

The U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution, adopted last week, removed Sharaa and Khattab from sanctions targeting members and supporters of terrorist groups ISIS and al-Qaeda.

The resolution also welcomed Syria’s pledges to allow humanitarian access, combat terrorism, and protect human rights.

In June, Trump rescinded unilateral U.S. sanctions on Syria via executive order, saying it was “a chance at greatness” for the Syrian people, but he kept sanctions on Assad and other leaders.

The United States revoked the designation of HTS as a foreign terrorist group in July.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Nov. 4 that the meeting between the president and Sharaa is part of Trump’s efforts to meet “anyone around the world in the pursuit of peace.”

Days before the meeting, Trump said Syria had made “a lot of progress.”

“I think he’s doing a very good job. It’s a tough neighborhood, and he’s a tough guy, but I got along with him very well,” he said.

The leader of Syria's Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed al-Sharaa, addresses a crowd at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024. Aref Tammawi/AFP

Trump and Sharaa last met in May in Riyadh, where the U.S. president urged his Syrian counterpart to join the Abraham Accords, a series of normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states.

After the meeting, Trump announced he would lift all sanctions on Syria.

The toughest measures, known as the Caesar Sanctions Act, can only be repealed by Congress. The administration has backed their removal before the end of 2025, but delays linked to U.S. budget disputes could slow progress.

Sharaa will “emphasize the importance of lifting economic sanctions, particularly the Caesar Act, to allow for Syria’s economic recovery and investment growth,” Syria’s Ministry of Information said in a Nov. 9 statement.

The Syrian leader is expected to reaffirm his commitment to continuing the fight against terrorism and promoting regional security, the ministry added.

On Nov.9, Sharaa met with the Syrian community in Washington, joined by U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack.

Syria’s state news agency, SANA, said Barrack reaffirmed U.S. support for Syria’s reintegration into the regional and international community.

In September, Sharaa addressed the U.N. General Assembly–the first Syrian president to do so since 1967–calling for full sanctions relief and highlighting Syria’s reconstruction needs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 08:25

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.5%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.2%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed three-fourths of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 7th, inventory was at 842 thousand (7-day average), compared to 857 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

ICE Has Received More Than 200,000 Job Applications: DHS

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has received more than 200,000 job applications, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stated in an X post on Nov. 7.

“Americans are answering their country’s call to serve and help remove murderers, pedophiles, rapists, terrorists, and gang members from our country,” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said.

The ICE “Defend the Homeland” recruitment drive was launched by DHS on July 29. The effort is backed by funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which has set aside $170 billion for border security and immigration enforcement initiatives.

ICE was allocated $76.5 billion—almost 10 times the agency’s typical annual budget—in funding, out of which $30 billion is set to go toward hiring 10,000 additional staff members, with the agency aiming to deport 1 million illegal immigrants annually.

ICE is offering a “robust package” of incentives for recruited individuals, including up to $50,000 in signing bonuses, enhanced retirement benefits, and student loan repayment and forgiveness options, according to DHS.

In August, DHS announced that it was removing age limits for ICE recruits. Previously, DHS required applicants to be at least 21 years of age and no more than 40 years old.

ICE is not the only agency under DHS that is reporting a surge in applications.

In a Nov. 7 X post, the Coast Guard (USCG) stated that it has achieved “record-breaking” recruiting results.

More than 5,900 members have enlisted with the USCG, which are the “best recruiting” numbers since 1991, according to the agency. The USCG has achieved 121 percent of its active-duty target goal for fiscal year 2025, it stated.

“Through Force Design 2028 and unprecedented investment, the Coast Guard is leading the military services in recruiting,” the USCG stated.

The Force Design 2028 plan aims to renew the Coast Guard, making it a more “agile, capable, and responsive fighting force,” according to the USCG website.

Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has also received an “overwhelming” 35,000-plus applications since launching its hiring campaign on Sept. 30, according to DHS.

“[This is the] most for any position in agency history,” it stated.

USCIS Director Joseph Edlow said: “USCIS is not wasting time; we are committed to implementing President [Donald] Trump’s priorities. These candidates are not just applying for a job—they are applying to guard our values and defend our homeland.”

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers have voiced concerns about oversight of the administration’s immigration enforcement operations during the federal government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history.

On Nov. 6, a group of Democrats sent a letter to Noem, raising “serious concerns” about the DHS secretary’s decision to furlough agency workers within the Office of Detention Oversight.

This office is responsible for monitoring conditions and treatment provided to individuals in ICE detention facilities, which involves conducting inspections to ensure that these facilities comply with federal detention standards.

“Given the concerns involving the safety of human life, we urge you to immediately reclassify DHS civil servants in charge of oversight as excepted under the Antideficiency Act and reinstate them,” the letter reads.

The surge in ICE recruitment comes at a time when there is an 8,000 percent jump in threats against ICE law enforcement officers, according to DHS.

“From bounties placed on their heads for their murders, threats to their families, stalking, and doxxing online, our officers are experiencing an unprecedented level of violence and threats against them and their families,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.

“This violence against law enforcement must end.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 08:05

U.S. & China Freeze Shipping Probes As Goldman Warns Key Trade Routes Set To "Deteriorate Further"

Enough Democrats caved in overnight to pass a key GOP funding bill as the federal government shutdown reached its record 40th day. There's still significant work ahead to fully reopen the government, but this marks very solid progress. On the international front, progress is also evident, with a new report indicating that the U.S. and China have suspended port fees and reciprocal probes amid easing trade tensions.

Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration paused its probe into China's shipbuilding industry for one year, prompting Beijing to suspend its retaliatory investigation and delay planned port fees on U.S. vessels. Both trade concessions were as expected, following breakthrough trade talks between President Trump and President Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit last month in South Korea.

The U.S. Trade Representative stated that negotiations with China will proceed on the issues raised by the probe. The mutual suspensions relieve pressure on global shipping markets after tit-for-tat moves by both economic superpowers had threatened to snarl maritime trade routes and drive up freight costs if reciprocal port fees had taken effect.

"As long as the suspension remains, the potential risk to upend global shipping remains," said Jayendu Krishna, a director at Drewry Maritime Services.

New data from Goldman analysts led by Jordan Alliger shows continued weakness in China-to-U.S. trade flows, with loaded vessels down for a fourth straight week (-10% WoW, -35% YoY) through October 30.

Alliger noted that China-to-U.S. trade flows will experience a brief improvement in mid-November (+6% YoY) before another steep drop (-30% YoY) by month's end.

"Full ramifications from the recent tariff-related implementations and magnitudes have yet to play out – but the next few weeks could continue to illustrate shipper reactions as a potentially wait-and-see mode after the large pull forward over the summer," the analyst said.

Key highlights from the report:

• China freight flows (week ending Thursday, October 30) showed a sequential downtick in laden vessels from China to the U.S. (-10%), with YoY drop-off continuing at -35%.

• Port Optimizer sequentials indicate a deterioration next week, with a return to positive the following week as TEUs appear to have found a floor of ~90k. Expected sequential imports into the Port of Los Angeles are set to be down -5% TEUs (November 14), while early readings suggest a +4% increase two weeks out. YOY trends show +6% and -30% over the next two weeks, reflecting volatility and challenges in timing YoY comparisons.

• Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast were -6% YoY, following last week's -7%. The previously positive growth trends over the summer likely reflected a load/unload lag and freight moving out of warehouses, while recent declines may signal muted import trends after the earlier pull-forward.

• Ocean container rates rose +48% sequentially, possibly due to attempts to push through GRIs ahead of contract season, but remain under heavy pressure YoY (-43%). Some normalization may occur soon following the surge.

• Truckload availability on the West Coast continues to deteriorate during what is typically peak season, now down -30% YoY.

Key chart from the report:

The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions couldn't have come at a better time, given the softening across major maritime shipping routes between Asia and the U.S.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full report in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 07:45