Individual Economists

National (Energy) Security Strategy

Zero Hedge -

National (Energy) Security Strategy

The White House recently released its newly updated National Security Strategy, a roadmap “to ensure that America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history, and the home of freedom on earth.”

In the document’s opening statement among callouts of securing the border, massive military investments, and strengthening of NATO, Trump makes a specific call out for domestic energy: “We unleashed American energy production to reclaim our independence”

He places energy production among the national-level focus areas to make America “safer, richer, freer, greater, and more powerful than ever before”. Meanwhile, the projected demand continues to skyrocket.

Recalling our recent discussion about what’s holding back the country’s data center industry, as well as the profile of the one biggest factor that has destroyed Europe’s economic growth, the national security strategy emphasizes the US' desire for a robust, productive, and innovative energy sector to both fuel America and lead the country's export industry. Indeed, the US has already obtained the status of net-exporter of energy through the recent ramp-up of LNG production, but, as the administration has highlighted multiple times, the nation intends to use nuclear reactors as political tools as well.

Exporting an energy asset like a nuclear power plant is a massive political leverage tool that can last upwards of 100 years. Just look at the iron grip on some eastern European countries that Russia still wields with its nuclear reactors. While the bulk of the relationship ended after the reactor was constructed, the fuel for the reactors was continuously provided by Russia for decades after the plant was first commissioned. That fuel isn’t exactly easy to replicate and just swap over to another provider. It took Westinghouse several years to develop replacement fuel for the VVER series reactors, and only just started production of some of the first rounds of it in Hungary.

With the US announcing their intent to export the AP1000 design, and likely the BWRX-300, they are attempting to use the following nuclear fuel orders, and engineering assists for major refits, as a way to maintain a controlling political relationship with the country where the reactor is located. This is one of the main reasons China and Russia export their reactor designs throughout locations in Europe, Asia, and Africa. The US is embarrassingly behind on the utilization of this political tool, but Trump’s May executive orders announced that it’s finally time to catch up.

Under the header of economic security, the administration has declared the objective to restore American energy dominance through oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power. The intent is to reshore the necessary energy components to facilitate the national build out of these assets and prepare them for mass exporting.

Energy is lastly discussed as one of the main reasons we have been focused on the Middle East for so many decades. Explaining that multiple previous dynamics no longer hold, the US now stands as a diversified importer of energy and a net-exporter. America under Trump hopes to finally rescind its focus on the Middle East as it instead becomes a source and destination for international investment in industries like nuclear energy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 17:20

National (Energy) Security Strategy

Zero Hedge -

National (Energy) Security Strategy

The White House recently released its newly updated National Security Strategy, a roadmap “to ensure that America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history, and the home of freedom on earth.”

In the document’s opening statement among callouts of securing the border, massive military investments, and strengthening of NATO, Trump makes a specific call out for domestic energy: “We unleashed American energy production to reclaim our independence”

He places energy production among the national-level focus areas to make America “safer, richer, freer, greater, and more powerful than ever before”. Meanwhile, the projected demand continues to skyrocket.

Recalling our recent discussion about what’s holding back the country’s data center industry, as well as the profile of the one biggest factor that has destroyed Europe’s economic growth, the national security strategy emphasizes the US' desire for a robust, productive, and innovative energy sector to both fuel America and lead the country's export industry. Indeed, the US has already obtained the status of net-exporter of energy through the recent ramp-up of LNG production, but, as the administration has highlighted multiple times, the nation intends to use nuclear reactors as political tools as well.

Exporting an energy asset like a nuclear power plant is a massive political leverage tool that can last upwards of 100 years. Just look at the iron grip on some eastern European countries that Russia still wields with its nuclear reactors. While the bulk of the relationship ended after the reactor was constructed, the fuel for the reactors was continuously provided by Russia for decades after the plant was first commissioned. That fuel isn’t exactly easy to replicate and just swap over to another provider. It took Westinghouse several years to develop replacement fuel for the VVER series reactors, and only just started production of some of the first rounds of it in Hungary.

With the US announcing their intent to export the AP1000 design, and likely the BWRX-300, they are attempting to use the following nuclear fuel orders, and engineering assists for major refits, as a way to maintain a controlling political relationship with the country where the reactor is located. This is one of the main reasons China and Russia export their reactor designs throughout locations in Europe, Asia, and Africa. The US is embarrassingly behind on the utilization of this political tool, but Trump’s May executive orders announced that it’s finally time to catch up.

Under the header of economic security, the administration has declared the objective to restore American energy dominance through oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power. The intent is to reshore the necessary energy components to facilitate the national build out of these assets and prepare them for mass exporting.

Energy is lastly discussed as one of the main reasons we have been focused on the Middle East for so many decades. Explaining that multiple previous dynamics no longer hold, the US now stands as a diversified importer of energy and a net-exporter. America under Trump hopes to finally rescind its focus on the Middle East as it instead becomes a source and destination for international investment in industries like nuclear energy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 17:20

The Evidence Is Clear: Masks Don't Do Anything...

Zero Hedge -

The Evidence Is Clear: Masks Don't Do Anything...

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

We’re being hit with the “Super Flu” (allegedly), and that means everyone wants us to wear masks again.

We went over this (a lot) in 2020.

Then we went over it again in 2023.

Masks don’t work, they never worked, and – prior to 2020 – the academic literature was very clear on this.

In a 2016 literature review, infection control expert Dr John Hardie found [emphasis added]:

Between 2004 and 2016 at least a dozen research or review articles have been published on the inadequacies of face masks. All agree that the poor facial fit and limited filtration characteristics of face masks make them unable to prevent the wearer inhaling airborne particles. In their well-referenced 2011 article on respiratory protection for healthcare workers, Drs. Harriman and Brosseau conclude that, “facemasks will not protect against the inhalation of aerosols.”

[…]

Health care workers have long relied heavily on surgical masks to provide protection against influenza and other infections. Yet there are no convincing scientific data that support the effectiveness of masks for respiratory protection.

[…]

It should be concluded from these and similar studies that the filter material of face masks does not retain or filter out viruses

Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review

That study was removed from the website of the Journal of Oral Health in July 2020, because it was “no longer relevant in our current climate”. Which is perfectly normal, I’m sure.

Another study, conducted in 2019 and published in May 2020, concluded:

Disposable medical masks are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids. There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

In 2023, the Cochrane Report by Jefferson et al. found:

Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza‐like illness (ILI)/COVID‐19 like illness compared to not wearing masks […] Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory‐confirmed influenza/SARS‐CoV‐2 compared to not wearing masks…
Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

None of this is new information; we’ve published it all before, but if they keep pitching the same lies, we’ll just have to keep batting with the same facts.

When it comes to preventing disease, masks are not effective. They never worked. The science backs this up.

This is neither an ideological position nor a moral position. It is simply a rational, fact-based position.

Anyone saying otherwise is misinformed, ideologically captured, willfully dishonest or some combination of all three.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 17:00

The Evidence Is Clear: Masks Don't Do Anything...

Zero Hedge -

The Evidence Is Clear: Masks Don't Do Anything...

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

We’re being hit with the “Super Flu” (allegedly), and that means everyone wants us to wear masks again.

We went over this (a lot) in 2020.

Then we went over it again in 2023.

Masks don’t work, they never worked, and – prior to 2020 – the academic literature was very clear on this.

In a 2016 literature review, infection control expert Dr John Hardie found [emphasis added]:

Between 2004 and 2016 at least a dozen research or review articles have been published on the inadequacies of face masks. All agree that the poor facial fit and limited filtration characteristics of face masks make them unable to prevent the wearer inhaling airborne particles. In their well-referenced 2011 article on respiratory protection for healthcare workers, Drs. Harriman and Brosseau conclude that, “facemasks will not protect against the inhalation of aerosols.”

[…]

Health care workers have long relied heavily on surgical masks to provide protection against influenza and other infections. Yet there are no convincing scientific data that support the effectiveness of masks for respiratory protection.

[…]

It should be concluded from these and similar studies that the filter material of face masks does not retain or filter out viruses

Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review

That study was removed from the website of the Journal of Oral Health in July 2020, because it was “no longer relevant in our current climate”. Which is perfectly normal, I’m sure.

Another study, conducted in 2019 and published in May 2020, concluded:

Disposable medical masks are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids. There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

In 2023, the Cochrane Report by Jefferson et al. found:

Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza‐like illness (ILI)/COVID‐19 like illness compared to not wearing masks […] Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory‐confirmed influenza/SARS‐CoV‐2 compared to not wearing masks…
Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

None of this is new information; we’ve published it all before, but if they keep pitching the same lies, we’ll just have to keep batting with the same facts.

When it comes to preventing disease, masks are not effective. They never worked. The science backs this up.

This is neither an ideological position nor a moral position. It is simply a rational, fact-based position.

Anyone saying otherwise is misinformed, ideologically captured, willfully dishonest or some combination of all three.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 17:00

Free And Fair?

Zero Hedge -

Free And Fair?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"The prison sentence made Ms. Peters, 70, a martyr for the election-denial movement, and launched a fruitless campaign by Mr. Trump’s followers to win her release from state prison."

- The NY Times

“Election denier” is a curious term. It implies that anyone who even questions the validity of an election is not right in the head, maybe even. . . a heretic, a sociopath, a criminal, an enemy of the people! 

The New York Times flogs the term incessantly as a sort of talisman, to ward off suspicions (branded as evil) that US elections are anything but free, fair, and upright.

Tina Peters was County Clerk in Mesa County, western Colorado, at the time of the 2020 elections, which Donald Trump won in her county by a 63-percent margin, though “Joe Biden” won the state.

In May, 2021, during a so-called “trusted build” update of her county’s Dominion ballot tabulation machine software, Tina Peters sought evidence that the machines were capable of being manipulated by wireless internet.

She made copies of the hard drives and published passwords online, exposing proprietary software and sensitive system information.

She was indicted in 2022 on 13 counts and convicted in August of 2024 on seven counts.

Tina Peters, sentenced in Colorado

Judge Matthew Barrett threw the book at her, handing the then-69-year-old grandmother a nine-year stretch in state prison. His spoken remarks at sentencing included:

“You are no hero. . .”

“You’re a charlatan who used, and is still using your prior position to peddle snake oil that’s been proven to be junk time and time again. . .”

“You’re as defiant as any defendant this court has ever seen. . .”

“Prison is where we send people who are a danger to all of us, whether it be by the pen or the sword or the word of the mouth.”

Rather harsh treatment, wouldn’t you say?

A classic case of someone being made an example of, as a caution to others who might dare to question an election. Of course, many of us who stayed up late Nov. 3-4, 2020, saw what looked like considerable shenanigans reported from voting precincts around the country. There were the weird flipperooskies in Michigan and Wisconsin where Mr. Trump was winning by a lot, and then, suddenly, at two o’clock in the morning, “Joe Biden” shot way ahead.

The explanation has been that Republicans show up to vote on election day and their votes are counted early while more Democrats voted by mail-in ballots, which are counted later on.

That does not account for the thumping irregularities in the mail-in vote itself, the skeezy ballot-harvesting activities and drop-box stuffing of Democratic Party ward-heelers; the instances, statistically absurd, when all the votes in a late hour were cast only for “Joe Biden” and none for Trump; the $400-million that Mark Zuckerberg gave in grants — through his Center for Technology and Civic Life — to 2,500 election districts, which allowed him to replace local election officials with outside ringers; the monkey-business in Fulton County, GA, where a supposedly “broken toilet” closed down the operation while CCTV cameras recorded suitcases full of ballots hauled out from underneath the tables and duly tabulated during the “shutdown;” the arrival of a truck from Long Island loaded with boxes of ballots at the loading dock of the main Philadelphia precinct center in the wee hours of the morning. . . and much more. Not to mention whatever the Dominion machines were doing in the background.

What is even the necessity of the Dominion voting machines?

All they do is provide superfluous complexity to the process and invite fraud. How did it become outside acceptable discourse to even ask about that?

Answer: because the Democratic Party benefits from opportunities for fraud, and many Republicans go along with it because, you know, Trump Trump Trump.

In any case, despite all the cries of “baseless claims” and “election denial,” and other patently disingenuous mantras, our elections give off the odor of fraud and the means for cleaning them up are obvious and simple — which I’ll spare you from rehearsing again. What’s more, we are just now learning about the extensive involvement of Venezuela in producing the Dominion machines and using them globally to engineer election outcomes. That might be the main reason our navy is parked off that nation’s coast just now.

For months, Mr. Trump’s Department of Justice attempted to intervene in the Tina Peters case and, at least, get her moved into a safer federal prison. Colorado officials fought all that. So, last week, Mr. Trump issued a pardon for Tina Peters. There is mixed opinion as to whether a president can pardon anyone convicted in a state jurisdiction. Colorado told Mr. Trump that his pardon will not apply — that they will keep Tina Peters in the state slammer. There are additional considerations as to whether anyone in “Joe Biden’s” DOJ might have unduly participated in or influenced the process that led to Tina Peters’ conviction. . . and, if so, whether that would make a presidential pardon apply.

Now, Mr. Trump says he will release new, additional information that the 2020 election was “rigged.” You might suppose that he is in a position to know. DNI Tulsi Gabbard likewise says she has proof that the Dominion voting machines were tampered with around the nation in 2020.

Wouldn’t it be nice if, by Christmas Eve, the president sent a contingent of US marshals to Colorado demanding the release of Tina Peters into federal custody. . . and arrested any Colorado official, including Governor Jared Polis, who interferes with the process? Wouldn’t you like to see that?

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 16:20

Free And Fair?

Zero Hedge -

Free And Fair?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"The prison sentence made Ms. Peters, 70, a martyr for the election-denial movement, and launched a fruitless campaign by Mr. Trump’s followers to win her release from state prison."

- The NY Times

“Election denier” is a curious term. It implies that anyone who even questions the validity of an election is not right in the head, maybe even. . . a heretic, a sociopath, a criminal, an enemy of the people! 

The New York Times flogs the term incessantly as a sort of talisman, to ward off suspicions (branded as evil) that US elections are anything but free, fair, and upright.

Tina Peters was County Clerk in Mesa County, western Colorado, at the time of the 2020 elections, which Donald Trump won in her county by a 63-percent margin, though “Joe Biden” won the state.

In May, 2021, during a so-called “trusted build” update of her county’s Dominion ballot tabulation machine software, Tina Peters sought evidence that the machines were capable of being manipulated by wireless internet.

She made copies of the hard drives and published passwords online, exposing proprietary software and sensitive system information.

She was indicted in 2022 on 13 counts and convicted in August of 2024 on seven counts.

Tina Peters, sentenced in Colorado

Judge Matthew Barrett threw the book at her, handing the then-69-year-old grandmother a nine-year stretch in state prison. His spoken remarks at sentencing included:

“You are no hero. . .”

“You’re a charlatan who used, and is still using your prior position to peddle snake oil that’s been proven to be junk time and time again. . .”

“You’re as defiant as any defendant this court has ever seen. . .”

“Prison is where we send people who are a danger to all of us, whether it be by the pen or the sword or the word of the mouth.”

Rather harsh treatment, wouldn’t you say?

A classic case of someone being made an example of, as a caution to others who might dare to question an election. Of course, many of us who stayed up late Nov. 3-4, 2020, saw what looked like considerable shenanigans reported from voting precincts around the country. There were the weird flipperooskies in Michigan and Wisconsin where Mr. Trump was winning by a lot, and then, suddenly, at two o’clock in the morning, “Joe Biden” shot way ahead.

The explanation has been that Republicans show up to vote on election day and their votes are counted early while more Democrats voted by mail-in ballots, which are counted later on.

That does not account for the thumping irregularities in the mail-in vote itself, the skeezy ballot-harvesting activities and drop-box stuffing of Democratic Party ward-heelers; the instances, statistically absurd, when all the votes in a late hour were cast only for “Joe Biden” and none for Trump; the $400-million that Mark Zuckerberg gave in grants — through his Center for Technology and Civic Life — to 2,500 election districts, which allowed him to replace local election officials with outside ringers; the monkey-business in Fulton County, GA, where a supposedly “broken toilet” closed down the operation while CCTV cameras recorded suitcases full of ballots hauled out from underneath the tables and duly tabulated during the “shutdown;” the arrival of a truck from Long Island loaded with boxes of ballots at the loading dock of the main Philadelphia precinct center in the wee hours of the morning. . . and much more. Not to mention whatever the Dominion machines were doing in the background.

What is even the necessity of the Dominion voting machines?

All they do is provide superfluous complexity to the process and invite fraud. How did it become outside acceptable discourse to even ask about that?

Answer: because the Democratic Party benefits from opportunities for fraud, and many Republicans go along with it because, you know, Trump Trump Trump.

In any case, despite all the cries of “baseless claims” and “election denial,” and other patently disingenuous mantras, our elections give off the odor of fraud and the means for cleaning them up are obvious and simple — which I’ll spare you from rehearsing again. What’s more, we are just now learning about the extensive involvement of Venezuela in producing the Dominion machines and using them globally to engineer election outcomes. That might be the main reason our navy is parked off that nation’s coast just now.

For months, Mr. Trump’s Department of Justice attempted to intervene in the Tina Peters case and, at least, get her moved into a safer federal prison. Colorado officials fought all that. So, last week, Mr. Trump issued a pardon for Tina Peters. There is mixed opinion as to whether a president can pardon anyone convicted in a state jurisdiction. Colorado told Mr. Trump that his pardon will not apply — that they will keep Tina Peters in the state slammer. There are additional considerations as to whether anyone in “Joe Biden’s” DOJ might have unduly participated in or influenced the process that led to Tina Peters’ conviction. . . and, if so, whether that would make a presidential pardon apply.

Now, Mr. Trump says he will release new, additional information that the 2020 election was “rigged.” You might suppose that he is in a position to know. DNI Tulsi Gabbard likewise says she has proof that the Dominion voting machines were tampered with around the nation in 2020.

Wouldn’t it be nice if, by Christmas Eve, the president sent a contingent of US marshals to Colorado demanding the release of Tina Peters into federal custody. . . and arrested any Colorado official, including Governor Jared Polis, who interferes with the process? Wouldn’t you like to see that?

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 16:20

Watch: Ukrainian Sea Drone In Direct Hit On Docked Russian Submarine

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Ukrainian Sea Drone In Direct Hit On Docked Russian Submarine

In what appears an unprecedented first of the war, Ukraine is touting that it deployed a new underwater drone, named "Sub Sea Baby", to sink a Russian Kilo-class submarine docked at the Black Sea Novorossiysk port.

While not specifying the date and time of the attack, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Monday the operation was a success as it struck the "Russian submarine of the class 636.3 ‘Varshavyanka’" and as a result it "suffered critical damage and was actually put out of action."

Illustrative photo: SBU drones strike Russian submarine.

The SBU further called it the first attack of its kind, describing the joint operation with the Ukrainian Navy, and shared video showing a large explosion at the sprawling Russian port, home to a number of naval assets.

"This class of submarine is also known as the 'Black Hole' due to the hull’s ability to absorb sound and remain inaudible to sonar," the SBU said of the destroyed vessel.

Kyiv Post writes, "The SBU estimated the submarine’s cost at about $400 million, rising to as much as $500 million to replace due to sanctions, and said it can carry up to four Kalibr cruise missiles used in attacks on Ukrainian cities."

Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said that given submarines are understood to be among the hardest targets to hit, the operation marked "another turning point" in the naval battle between Ukraine and Russia.

"This day once again upends the perception of the possibilities of naval combat in this war," he said according to Reuters.

War monitors estimate that four submarines were stationed in Novorossiysk at the time of the attack, and now one is likely totally disabled, and immediate repairs would be risky as the port is still exposed to further sea or aerial drone attack.

Ukraine is currently seeking to claw back some leverage amid efforts to reach a peace deal with Russia. Ukrainian and US delegations are meeting in Berlin this week in order to hash out what might be acceptable compromise.

Russia has been absorbing serious blows of late due to Ukraine's drone warfare, especially at oil refineries and transport hubs; however, President Putin has still shown no signs that he intends to back down from pursuing the goals of the 'special military operation'.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 15:25

D.C. Appeals Court Pauses Boasberg's Contempt Hearings On Trump Deportations

Zero Hedge -

D.C. Appeals Court Pauses Boasberg's Contempt Hearings On Trump Deportations

Via American Greatness,

A federal appeals court has granted an emergency motion sought by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) to halt contempt hearings scheduled to start this week over the deportation of suspected Venezuelan gang members.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg had scheduled contempt hearings for Dec. 15 and 16, over the Trump administration’s deportation of Venezuelan gang member under the Alien Enemies act in March of this year.

Boasberg had issued restraining orders on the deportation of two planeloads of suspected Tren de Aragua gang members, after the planes were already airborne.

When the Trump administration followed the written orders but not the judge’s oral instructions, which DOJ attorneys said were defective, and allowed the deportation flights to complete their mission to transport the detainees to a maximum security prison in El Salvador.

The Supreme Court had ruled that Boasberg lacked jurisdiction and vacated the orders but the judge still scheduled contempt hearings, which were temporarily blocked by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, in a 2-1 ruling on Friday.

In its emergency motion, filed last week, the DOJ condemned Boasberg’s escalation of the matter and said, “This long-running saga never should have begun; should not have continued at all after this Court’s last intervention; and certainly should not be allowed to escalate into the unseemly and unnecessary interbranch conflict that it now imminently portends.”

The filing continued, “This Court should therefore again grant mandamus relief, this time foreclosing any further inquiry. The Court should also order the case to be reassigned given the strong appearance that the district judge is engaged in a pattern of retaliation and harassment, and has developed too strong a bias to preside over this matter impartially.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi called Boasberg’s actions “lawless judicial activism” and warned that the judge’s latest order threatened the separation of powers as well as attorney-client privilege.

In their emergency order, Judges Neomi Rao and Justin Walker emphasized that their stay is temporary and does not constitute a ruling on the merits of the case, saying, “The purpose of this administrative stay is to allow the court time to render a decision on the mandamus petition and the stay motion.”

DOJ lawyers also asked the court to bar testimony from two current and former senior Justice Department officials who had been ordered to appear for questioning this week.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem has been identified as the official who authorized the transfer of the Venezuelan detainees after being briefed about Boasberg’s order by DOJ lawyers and acting general counsel for DHS.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 14:25

Wealthy U.S. Investors Embrace AI Tools... But Don't Let Them Run Their Retirement Accounts

Zero Hedge -

Wealthy U.S. Investors Embrace AI Tools... But Don't Let Them Run Their Retirement Accounts

Despite the rapid expansion of AI-powered investing tools in 2025, most affluent American investors remain reluctant to hand over control of their retirement savings to chatbots. A new survey from InvestorsObserver shows that even as artificial intelligence becomes more embedded in portfolio analysis, market research, and trading platforms, trust in AI stops short when it comes to 401(k)s and long-term retirement decisions.

The survey questioned 1,050 experienced U.S. investors between the ages of 35 and 60, all of whom hold portfolios worth at least $500,000, including retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs. An overwhelming 88% said they would not allow an AI chatbot to manage their 401(k), underscoring a strong preference for human judgment when it comes to life savings.

While AI adoption in finance has accelerated in 2025—through robo-advisors, algorithmic rebalancing tools, and AI-driven portfolio simulations—actual reliance remains measured. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, or 64%, said they have never used AI chatbots for investment advice at all. Only 5% reported acting on AI-generated recommendations without independently researching the advice or consulting a professional.

That caution extends across multiple financial functions. Just 12% of investors said they would trust AI to handle retirement planning, and the same share would rely on it for tax optimization. At the other end of the spectrum, 19% indicated they would not allow AI to manage any financial task whatsoever, signaling persistent skepticism even among tech-aware, high-net-worth individuals.

At the same time, the findings do not suggest outright rejection of AI. A majority of respondents—59%—said they plan to use or continue using AI for financial guidance in the future. However, most see these tools as support systems rather than decision-makers, using them to speed up research, compare funds, analyze fees, or surface potential risks rather than to dictate portfolio moves.

“People are open to using AI chatbots to generate ideas, but when it comes to life savings in 401(k)s and IRAs, they want a human hand on the wheel,” said Sam Bourgi, senior analyst at InvestorsObserver. “Today, AI can inform retirement decisions, but it should not replace personal judgment or professional advice.”

This mindset reflects a broader shift toward hybrid investing models in 2025. Investors increasingly combine AI-driven insights with human oversight, relying on technology to process vast amounts of data while retaining control over contribution levels, asset allocation, rebalancing, and retirement timelines. The approach allows investors to benefit from efficiency and speed without surrendering accountability.

The survey suggests this caution may be well founded. As AI tools become more persuasive and widely available, they are not always more accurate, and unverified or context-poor outputs can lead to costly mistakes. For now, wealthy investors appear determined to keep AI in an assistive role—powerful, useful, but firmly supervised—when it comes to protecting their long-term financial future.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 14:05

Mexico Bends The Knee, Agrees To Fulfill US Water Treaty Commitments

Zero Hedge -

Mexico Bends The Knee, Agrees To Fulfill US Water Treaty Commitments

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The United States and Mexico reached an understanding in which Mexico will meet its obligations under the 1944 Water Treaty and provide water to American farmers and ranchers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a statement on Dec. 12.

“Under the 1944 Water Treaty, Mexico is obligated to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet over five years to the United States from the Rio Grande River. The United States in turn delivers 1.5 million acre-feet of water to Mexico from the Colorado River,” the USDA said.

However, “Mexico’s persistent shortfalls in deliveries have led to severe water shortages for Rio Grande Valley farmers and ranchers, devastating crops, costing jobs, and threatening the local economy,” it said.

The valley is located in the southernmost part of Texas.

Mexico will begin releasing 202,000 acre-feet of water to the United States, with deliveries scheduled to begin this week, according to the USDA.

Since Mexico had not supplied the agreed-upon water volumes during the previous five-year cycle, the country has agreed to repay the outstanding deficit.

The two nations have reviewed a series of actions to meet treaty obligations and are currently negotiating the matter, with the intention of finalizing a plan by Jan. 31, 2026, the USDA said.

“Farmers across South Texas have been reeling from the uncertainty caused by the lack of water. Now they can expect the resources promised to them, thanks to President Trump’s leadership. I thank Mexico for their willingness to abide by the treaty and return to good standing with their past obligations,” Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said.

“Mexico has delivered more water in the last year than in the previous four years combined. Although this is a step in the right direction, President Trump has been very clear: if Mexico continues to violate its commitments, the United States reserves the right and will impose 5 percent tariffs on Mexican products.”

A Nov. 20 study published by Springer Nature detailed the water security issue in the Rio Grande-Bravo basin, which the United States and Mexico share.

The basin is experiencing “a severe water crisis demanding urgent attention,” it said, adding that water storage reservoirs, annual streamflow volumes, and aquifers have been “substantially depleted” over recent decades.

The study estimated that only 48 percent of the water directly consumed as a result of human activities is replenished by renewable sources. The remaining 52 percent of consumption has been unsustainable, leading to the depletion of aquifers, reservoirs, and river flows.

“The over-consumption of renewable water supplies is primarily due to irrigated agriculture, which accounts for 87 percent of direct water consumption in the basin,” the study says.

“At the same time, water shortages have contributed to the loss of 18 percent of farmland in the river’s headwaters in Colorado, 36 percent along the Rio Grande in New Mexico, and 49 percent in the Pecos River tributary in New Mexico and Texas.”

Last week, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Mexican imports by 5 percent if the country failed to swiftly deliver the water it owes. He said the treaty violation was “seriously hurting” Texas agriculture and livestock.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted the ongoing drought plaguing her country but vowed to help resolve the treaty issue.

In April, Trump threatened Mexico with possible sanctions and additional tariffs over the water treaty violation, and Mexico subsequently agreed to send more water to Texas.

In a Dec. 14 statement, Sid Miller, commissioner of the Texas Department of Agriculture, commended Trump for ensuring that Mexico honors the water treaty.

Producers in the Rio Grande Basin have been deprived of water they are legally owed for the past several years, he said. This has resulted in the loss of crops, industries, jobs, and livelihoods.

Mexico’s “willingness to come to the table speaks volumes about the improved relationship between Mexico and the United States, but sustained accountability will be necessary,” Miller said.

“Let me be clear: Texas farmers expect Mexico to fully meet its obligations—not just today, but for years to come. Water is the lifeblood of agriculture. President Trump understands that without water, there is no farming, no ranching, and no rural economy in the American Southwest,” he added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 13:45

The Wealth Gap Widens: Survey Shows Rich Now Means $2.3 Million Net Worth

Zero Hedge -

The Wealth Gap Widens: Survey Shows Rich Now Means $2.3 Million Net Worth

Authored by José Niño via Headline USA,

The benchmark for wealth in America has undergone a dramatic transformation. According to a report by Fortune, Americans now place the threshold for being considered wealthy at an average of $2.3 million - a 21 percent surge since 2021 that underscores how inflation and escalating expenses have fundamentally reshaped financial aspirations. 

Though generational perspectives on wealth differ, there’s broad consensus that true prosperity encompasses far more than dollars alone, extending to security, wellness, and life quality.

Back then, a seven-figure net worth seemed like the ultimate financial destination. But with inflation and tariffs driving up prices across the board, that once-impressive sum has lost much of its luster.

The reality check comes from a Charles Schwab report showing that Americans now peg the wealth threshold at an average of $2.3 million.

The financial services giant polled 2,200 adults ranging from 21 to 75 years old between April 24 and May 23, capturing insights across multiple generations. Survey participants indicated that achieving “financial comfort” requires approximately $839,000.

Though the $2.3 million figure represents a modest decline from last year’s Modern Wealth Survey result of $2.5 million, it still towers 21% above the $1.9 million benchmark recorded in 2021.

Survey participants also expressed that the wealth threshold appears to be climbing, with 63 percent indicating it takes more money to achieve wealthy status today than a year ago, pointing to inflation, economic deterioration, and increased taxation as primary culprits.

Brad Clark, founder and CEO of financial advisory firm Solomon Financial, noted these views align closely with feedback from his clientele. While the United States boasts numerous millionaires when all assets are tallied, he explained to Fortune, this calculation typically incorporates home equity, leaving investable assets below the million-dollar mark for most.

“With so many middle-class Americans being considered millionaires, it stands to reason that the average individual would consider $2.3 million to be wealthy, as it may seem out of reach,” Clark said.

Yet financial professionals emphasize that wealth doesn’t automatically translate to lavish living across all dimensions.

The $2.3 million benchmark is “not luxury for everyone, but security. It’s wanting to have a house, retire well, have family, and have one’s time,” William “Bill” London, a lawyer and partner at Kimura London & White who routinely handles high-net-worth families and individuals in divorces and estate cases, told Fortune. “Affluence is not about excess, but about reducing anxiety.”

The Charles Schwab data reveals generational divides in wealth perception, with Gen Z establishing lower benchmarks for both wealth and financial stability—$1.7 million and $329,000, respectively. Millennials and Gen Xers place the wealth line at $2.1 million, while baby boomers set it at $2.8 million.

These disparities may stem from how different age cohorts view prosperity. Older generations like baby boomers tend to view wealth through the lens of stability, London explained, emphasizing property ownership, retirement income, and inheritable assets. Younger cohorts, conversely, prioritize experiences, debt elimination, and lifestyle autonomy.

“Millennials and Gen Z are justifiably pessimistic about the prospects of homeownership, which historically was the most common way for Americans to build wealth,” Markus Schneider, associate professor and chair of the economics department at University of Denver, told Fortune. “There are lots of reasons why millennials and Gen Z may feel less secure about the world than the boomers did when they were the same age, and that may also impact how they feel about their wealth.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 13:05

"It's Outrageous": US Military Plane Nearly Collides With JetBlue Flight Off Venezuela

Zero Hedge -

"It's Outrageous": US Military Plane Nearly Collides With JetBlue Flight Off Venezuela

A US military aircraft narrowly avoided a collision with a JetBlue passenger jet in skies near Venezuela after crossing into the commercial plane's flight path without activating its transponder, according to air traffic control audio reviewed by The NY Times and others.

The JetBlue flight had departed from Curaçao, a Dutch Caribbean island roughly 40 miles off Venezuela’s coast, and was heading to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport when the near-miss incident occurred Friday. That it was headed for JFK from what's a popular seasonal tourist destination suggests that most of the passengers were Americans on board.

"We almost had a midair collision," the JetBlue pilot said in the recording. "They flew directly through our flight path … and they don’t have their transponder on. It's outrageous."

Illustrative: Imag via Lwashburn66/Reddit

The military aircraft was identified as a US Air Force aerial refueling tanker. The JetBlue pilot is heard in the audio confirming he was forced to halt its climb to avoid danger.

"We had traffic pass directly in front of us within about five miles - maybe as close as two or three miles," he described. "It was an air-to-air refueler from the US Air Force at our altitude, and we had to stop climbing."

Air traffic control also acknowledged that it was "outrageous" dealing with unidentified aircraft operating in the airspace. The following day on Saturday, air traffic controllers in Curaçao had warned three pilots about unidentified aircraft in the area as they were flying with transponders off. These were also believed to be US military aircraft, according to the NY Times.

The Trump administration has been threatening regime change targeting President Nicolás Maduro, and has been ramping up military flights right along Venezuelan airspace. Trump has lately said that land strikes could begin soon, but it might not be limited to Venezuela, suggesting anti-cartel operations in other parts of Latin America could ensue.

Recent polls have shown that a sizeable chunk of the American public, even the majority, views the possibility of a new US war in Venezuela in a negative light.

In scenario of a tragic incident involving civilian aviation, Americans would without doubt be furious.

Independent Max Blumenthal has accused the Trump administration of "playing with the lives of civilians" in the below commentary:

For weeks, the Trump admin's "Operation Southern Spear" has been playing with the lives of airline passengers traversing the Caribbean. Throughout November, the US military employed electronic warfare to jam the GPS of passenger airline pilots to force international airlines to quit flying to Caracas Colombia's Minister of Transport, María Fernanda Rojas slammed the cyberattacks targeting aircraft operating near Venezuela.

"Deceptive signals are being emitted—cyberattacks, signals intended to fool positioning equipment, GPS " Rojas declared on December 2. "To technologically sabotage an air operation anywhere in the world is a crime. We cannot allow that ."

On December 12, a US army refueling tanker flying without its transponder on nearly collided with a Jet Blue flight traveling from Curacao to New York “They don’t have their transponder turned on, it’s outrageous,” the JetBlue pilot told an air traffic controller. “We almost had a midair collision up here.” The Trump admin is engaged in borderline terrorism against civilian airliners and endangering travelers across the Caribbean – all to further a deranged regime change operation now focused on stealing oil tankers. How much longer before a flight is sacrificed for Marco Rubio's mania?

As of November, the FAA issued a high level security alert (NOTAM) for Venezuela, effective through February, warning 'do not fly'. However, civilian aircraft have been operating over the broader Caribbean, and if American military planes increasingly traverse the same area with their transponders off, this could pose a serious and continuing danger.

*  *  * ORDER BY TOMORROW!

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 12:45

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-December provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Note that we are still missing some key pieces of data due to the government shutdown, such as housing starts and new home sales.

The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply (almost back to pre-pandemic levels), and sales are depressed and tracking last year (sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure, although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales since most homeowners have substantial equity and low mortgage rates. It now appears likely that existing home prices will be mostly unchanged year-over-year nationally by the end of 2025.

Active existing Home InventoryRealtor.com reports in the November 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 1.7% year-over-year in November. And active listings were up 12.6% year-over-year.
Homebuyers found more options in November, as the number of actively listed homes rose 12.6% compared to the same time last year. While this marks the 25th consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains, active listing growth has slowed in each of the past six months (down from ~30% peak YoY growth in May and June). The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the seventh consecutive month and remains close to midsummer levels. Still, nationwide November inventory is 11.7% below typical 2017–19 levels.
There is much more in the article.

Aussie PM Invokes 'Right-Wing Extremism' After Islamic Terrorist Attack, Vows Crackdown On Guns

Zero Hedge -

Aussie PM Invokes 'Right-Wing Extremism' After Islamic Terrorist Attack, Vows Crackdown On Guns

In the wake of a Sunday mass shooting at Australia's Bondi Beach that left 15 dead and more than two dozen injured, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has vowed to strengthen the country's gun laws. The massacre, which occurred during a Hanukkah event, was reportedly carried out by a father-son pair, Sajid Akram, 50, and Naveed Akram, 24 - with the older gunman having held a gun license for a decade while legally owning six guns. 

"The government is prepared to take whatever action is necessary. Included in that is the need for tougher gun laws," Albanese said.

Other government leaders also proposed restricting gun ownership to Australian citizens - a measure which would have excluded the older suspected gunman who has lived in Australia since 1998 on a student visa, and became a permanent resident after marrying a local woman, according to authorities - who did not confirm what country he had migrated from. 

Government leaders are also proposing the "additional use of criminal intelligence" in deciding who can obtain a firearms license - which "could hypothetically have meant that a 2019 investigation into the son's suspicious associates, confirmed Monday by Albanese, would have disqualify the father from owning a gun" CBS News reports.

New South Wales premier Christopher Minns said his state's gun laws would change, but did not outline how. 

"It means introducing a bill to Parliament to — I mean to be really blunt — make it more difficult to get these horrifying weapons that have no practical use in our community," he said. "If you're not a farmer, you're not involved in agriculture, why do you need these massive weapons that put the public in danger and make life dangerous and difficult for New South Wales Police?"

Of note, Australia enacted a suite of strict gun control laws roughly two weeks after an April, 1996 massacre in Port Arthur, Tasmani in which one man killed 35 people and wounded another 23, prompting then PM John Howard to "significantly strengthen laws relating to gun control in Australia." Under the National Firearms Agreement (NFA), gun ownership was explicitly made a privilege, while two federally-funded gun buybacks and voluntary surrenders led to the  collection of more than a million firearms which were then destroyed. In order to possess a firearm in Australia, a person must have a firearm license and demonstrate at least one "genuine reason" for ownership that doesn't include self defense.

Albanese, meanwhile, invoked 'right-wing extremism' during a press conference after the Islamic terrorist attack when asked about one of the alleged gunmen. 

JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, Mike Burgess warned you in February that antisemitism was the number one threat to life. Is that still the case and have you taken these threats seriously enough? And Acting Deputy Commissioner, if I may, it's my understanding that Sajid Akram moved to Australia in the late 90s, I believe from Pakistan. Is that correct?

PRIME MINISTER: On the latter the Minister will respond. We take ASIO's advice very seriously. We work closely with them. We receive regular updates as well. The Director-General of ASIO has warned about a range of threats, be it antisemitism, the rise of right wing extremist groups as well. And we continue to work closely with our security agencies

Watch:

So, more gun control and they're on the lookout for 'antisemitism' and 'right wing extremist groups' after the Islamic terrorist attack. Right. 

*  *  * ORDER BY TOMORROW!

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 10:45

Key Events This Very Busy Week: Jobs, Payrolls, CPI. Retail Sales And Central Banks Galore

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Very Busy Week: Jobs, Payrolls, CPI. Retail Sales And Central Banks Galore

With just days left in 2025, it's an extremely busy week for global markets, with a dense calendar of economic releases and major central bank decisions, including from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, which as DB's Jim Reid writes, all have a chance to be Scrooges or Santas in their meetings this week. Alongside these announcements, the data flow will be heavy: the US will finally publish delayed employment and inflation reports, while flash PMIs for December and will provide clues on global momentum. Meanwhile, overnight, China' econ data dump came in worse than expected with both fixed investment, IP and Retail sales both missing. 

It’s also an interesting time for global markets with long-end yields at or around multi-month or even multi-year highs (e.g. Japan and 30yr Europe) at the same time as the weakest AI stories are increasingly being punished rather than the pre-September period when AI all went up together. If that wasn’t enough, another notable Fed story came late on Friday, as President Trump suggested that NEC Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh were his two favored candidates for the Fed Chair role. Hassett has been viewed as the frontrunner in recent weeks but following Trump’s interview his Polymarket odds fell from around 73% late on Friday to 52% this morning. Warsh has gone from 13% before the interview to 40% this morning. So, it's fair to say there’s a lot of unfinished business going into the last full trading week of the year.

For this week specifically, in the United States, attention will focus on tomorrow’s twin employment reports for October and November, delayed by the recent government shutdown. October’s headline payrolls are expected to show a decline of around -60k, largely due to federal layoffs with all the early year buy-out offers coming off payroll in October. November should rebound modestly with a gain of +50k (per DB). Private sector hiring is likely to remain steady in both months at around +50k (DB), slightly below the recent trend. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.5 per cent in November from 4.4 per cent in September (we will never know October), while average hourly earnings should increase by 0.3 per cent in both months, keeping year-on-year nominal compensation growth near 4.4 per cent. Hours worked are expected to stabilise at 34.3. Given the distortions caused by the shutdown, the household survey could be noisy, echoing patterns seen after the 2013 episode. For a cleaner read on labor market conditions, Thursday’s jobless claims will be important and given our economists believe this will come in at around +225k, they believe underlying hiring trends remain intact.

Inflation will also be in focus with Thursday’s US CPI release. Because October data were not collected, the report will center on year-on-year changes. Headline CPI is expected to hold broadly steady at 3.03%, while core inflation remains at 3.02%. Monthly headline gains across October and November should average +0.24%, slightly below September’s pace with core slightly above at +0.26%. Within the details, core goods prices are likely to show modest increases in household furnishings and apparel, while used car prices continue to decline. Core services will attract particular attention, especially rents, which are expected to rebound after September’s anomalous weakness. Airline fares and lodging should soften from their recent highs, though health insurance may surprise on the upside. Beyond jobs and inflation, Tuesday’s retail sales report will offer insight into consumer spending. DB expects a headline decline of -0.3%, driven by autos and lower fuel prices, but retail control — the component used in GDP calculations — should rise by +0.3%, signalling resilience in underlying demand. Friday’s final reading of University of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected at 54.0, with inflation expectations likely to matter more than the headline figure.

On policy, last week’s FOMC meeting delivered a 25bps rate cut and signaled a “wait and see” approach, while also launching $40BN in monthly T-Bill purchases, much sooner than expected. Chair Powell struck a dovish tone, emphasizing labo rmarket risks over inflation. This week’s Fedspeak will reinforce that message, with Governor Miran and New York Fed President Williams speaking today, followed by Governor Waller and Williams again on Wednesday. Atlanta Fed President Bostic closes the week on Friday. Miran, who dissented in favor of a larger cut, is expected to reiterate his view that shelter inflation will collapse in coming quarters.

In Europe, Thursday brings a cluster of central bank decisions. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2 per cen , while the Bank of England is forecast to deliver its sixth cut of the cycle, lowering Bank Rate to 3.75 per cent on a narrow 5-4 vote. The Riksbank and Norges Bank will also decide on policy on the same day with both likely to stay on hold. Ahead of the BoE meeting, UK labor market data on Tuesday and CPI on Wednesday will be closely watched. Headline inflation is forecast to ease to 3.51% year-on-year, while core ticks up slightly to 3.46% (see our economist’s preview here). Retail sales and consumer confidence on Friday will round out the UK calendar. In Germany, the Ifo survey on Wednesday and consumer confidence on Friday will provide further insight into regional conditions as fiscal spending starts to ramp up. Across the Atlantic, Canadian inflation is out today which is interesting given the sharp move from pricing in a slightly easing bias earlier this month to almost a full hike by the end of 2026 now.

Across Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday and is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 0.75 per cent, with a 94% probability priced in by markets. See our economist’s thoughts here. Japan’s nationwide CPI for November will also be released on Friday, with core inflation forecast to slow to 2.9% and core-core to 3.0%. Global flash PMIs for December, covering the US, UK, Japan, Germany and France, will be published tomorrow and will offer early signals on fourth-quarter growth trends.

Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday December 15

  • Data: US December Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, China November retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Germany November wholesale price index, Italy October general government debt, Eurozone October industrial production, Canada November CPI, existing home sales, housing starts, October manufacturing sales
  • Central banks: Fed’s Miran and Williams speak

Tuesday December 16

  • Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone December PMIs, US November and October jobs reports, October retail sales, December New York Fed services business activity, September business inventories, UK October average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, November jobless claims change, Japan November trade balance, October core machine orders, Germany December Zew survey, Italy October trade balance, Eurozone December Zew survey, October trade balance
  • Earnings: Lennar

Wednesday December 17

  • Data: UK November CPI, RPI, PPI, October house price index, Germany December Ifo survey, Eurozone Q3 labour costs, Canada October international securities transactions, New Zealand Q3 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed’s Waller, Williams and Bostic speak
  • Earnings: Micron Technology
  • Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Thursday December 18

  • Data: US November CPI, December Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, October total net TIC flows, initial jobless claims, Japan November national CPI, France December business confidence, Eurozone October construction output
  • Central banks: ECB, BoE, Riksbank and Norges bank decide on rates
  • Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Accenture
  • Auctions: US 5-yr TIPS (reopening, $24bn)
  • Other: European Council (through December 19)

Friday December 19

  • Data: US November existing home sales, December Kansas City Fed services activity, UK December GfK consumer confidence, November retail sales, public finances, Germany November PPI, January GfK consumer confidence, France November PPI, retail sales, Italy October current account balance, industrial sales, December consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, ECB October current account, Eurozone December consumer confidence, Canada October retail sales
  • Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB’s Wunsch and Kocher speak

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the November employment report and the October retail sales report on Tuesday and the CPI report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Miran on Monday and Governor Waller on Wednesday. 

Monday, December 15 

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, December (consensus +10.0, last +28.7)
  • 09:30 AM Fed Governor Miran Speaks; Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a moderated conversation with former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida at Columbia University's Institute of Global Politics. On November 21, Miran said, "All the information that we got [between the October and December FOMC meetings] should push one in the dovish direction." Governor Miran dissented against the Committee's decision at the December FOMC meeting, preferring to cut the Fed Funds rate by 50bp rather than 25bp. 
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, December (consensus 39, last 38)
  • 10:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks during an event organized by the New Jersey Bankers Association. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On November 21, Williams said, "My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat." He also said, "I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions."
  • 11:00 AM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will appear on CNBC.

Tuesday, December 16 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, November (GS +55k, consensus +50k, last +22k [September]); Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +10k); Private payroll employment, November (GS +50k, consensus +40k, last +83k [September]); Private payroll employment, October (GS +70k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), November (GS +0.35%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2% [September]); Average hourly earnings (MoM), October (GS +0.30%); Unemployment rate, November (GS 4.5%, consensus 4.5%, last 4.4% [September]): 
    • We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 10k in October and 55k in November. On the positive side, big data indicators showed a moderate pace of private sector job growth: we forecast private payroll growth of 70k in October and 50k in November. On the negative side, we expect a large drag from the DOGE deferred resignation program. That said, a surprisingly moderate increase in federal government separations in last week’s JOLTS report suggests that the hit to nonfarm payrolls could be more limited than we had previously expected. We now assume a 70k hit to October payrolls and an additional 10k hit to November. After factoring in increases in state and local government employment but a modest additional drag on federal hiring from the ongoing hiring freeze, we expect a 60k decline in government payrolls in October and a 5k increase in November.
    • The BLS did not collect responses for the household survey for October and therefore will not produce an unemployment rate for October. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5% in November, a low bar from the unrounded 4.44% in September. Continuing claims have rebounded slightly, and some furloughed federal workers who did not work during the reference week could be counted as unemployed even though the government shutdown had ended part of the way through the week.
    • We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.30% month-over-month in October and 0.35% in November, reflecting neutral and positive calendar effects, respectively.
  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, October (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, October (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%); Core retail sales, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.1%): We estimate core retail sales rebounded 0.5% in October (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting improvement in alternative measures of consumer spending and a slight tailwind from potential residual seasonality. We estimate headline retail sales were unchanged, reflecting a decline in auto sales and lower gasoline prices.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, December preliminary (consensus 52.3, last 52.2); S&P Global US services PMI, December preliminary (consensus 54.0, last 54.1)
  • 10:00 AM Business inventories, September (consensus +0.2%, last flat)

Wednesday, December 17 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
  • 08:15 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on the economic outlook at Yale University. Q&A and a livestream are expected. On November 17, Waller said, "I worry that restrictive monetary policy is weighing on the economy, especially about how it is affecting lower-and middle-income consumers. A December cut will provide additional insurance against an acceleration in the weakening of the labor market and move policy toward a more neutral setting."
  • 09:05 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver opening remarks during the FX Market Structure Conference organized by the New York Fed. A livestream is expected. 
  • 12:30 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated discussion at the Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce. Q&A is expected. On November 12, Bostic said, "It's definitely a close call. But in the final analysis, I view the signals from the labor market as ambiguous and difficult to interpret. They are not clear enough to warrant an aggressive monetary policy response when weighed against the more straightforward risk of ongoing inflationary pressures." He went on to say, "In these circumstances, moving policy near or into accommodative territory risks pumping fresh blood into the inflation beast and threatening to untether the inflation expectations of businesses and consumers."

Thursday, December 18 

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 13 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 236k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 6 (consensus 1,938k, last 1,838k)
  • 08:30 AM CPI (MoM, two-month average), November (GS +0.20%); Core CPI (MoM, two-month average), November (GS +0.21%); CPI (YoY), November (GS +2.91%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.01% [September]); Core CPI (YoY), November (GS +2.88%, consensus +3.0%, last +3.02% [September]): We estimate that the core CPI increased by 0.21% month-over-month on average across October and November, which would lower the year-over-year rate to 2.9% on a rounded basis in November (vs. 3.1% in September and 3.0% consensus for November). While the BLS will not produce an October core CPI due to the government shutdown and therefore month changes will not be recoverable for October or November, our forecast reflects an estimated 0.25% month over month increase in October and a 0.16% increase in November. Our two-month forecast reflects an increase in used car prices reflecting the signal from auction prices (+0.5% on average across October and November), a slight increase in new car prices (+0.2%) reflecting an increase in dealer incentives, and a slight decline in car insurance prices (-0.1%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We forecast a net increase in airfares (+1%), reflecting a drag from seasonal distortions but an increase in underlying airfares based on our equity analysts’ tracking of online price data. We have penciled in upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as communication, household furnishings, and recreation) worth +0.08pp on core inflation on average across October and November but downward pressure from delayed data collection on categories that typically experience steep holiday discounting in late November (such as apparel, household furnishings, and personal care) worth -0.04pp. We expect a rebound in the shelter components on net after an outlier-driven slowdown in the prior month (primary rent +0.24% on average across October and November vs. +0.20% in September; OER +0.23% vs. +0.13%). We estimate that the headline CPI increased 0.20% month-over-month on average across October (0.14% MoM) and November (0.27% MoM), reflecting higher food prices (+0.3% month-over-month on average across October and November) but lower energy prices (-0.1%).
  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, December (GS 5.0, consensus 3.4, last -1.7)

Friday, December 19 

  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, November (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.2%)
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December final (GS 53.6, consensus 53.5, last 53.3): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, December final (GS 3.2%, last 3.2%)

Source: DB. Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 10:35

Hammer Drops On Clintons: Appear For Epstein Depositions Or Face Contempt Of Congress

Zero Hedge -

Hammer Drops On Clintons: Appear For Epstein Depositions Or Face Contempt Of Congress

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

House Oversight Chairman James Comer is done playing games with Bill and Hillary Clinton, warning them that their endless delays in the Epstein probe will lead straight to contempt charges if they don’t comply.

With subpoenas issued months ago and the Clintons dodging every step, Comer’s latest ultimatum ramps up the pressure on the deep state darlings, exposing their ties to the convicted pedophile’s network amid calls for full transparency.

As we reported last month, the Clintons outright refused to honor subpoenas demanding depositions on their connections to Jeffrey Epstein, prompting outrage from Republicans like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna who blasted Democrats for their sudden silence on the matter.

The subpoenas, dropped in August by Comer, originally set Hillary’s testimony for October 9 and Bill’s for October 14. Instead of showing up, their lawyers begged for delays, only to ghost the committee entirely—classic stonewalling from elites who think rules don’t apply to them.

Comer has repeatedly highlighted Bill Clinton as a “prime suspect” in the saga, pointing to over 20 flights on Epstein’s infamous Lolita Express, multiple jaunts to his private island, and at least 17 Epstein visits to the Clinton White House. These aren’t casual associations; they’re red flags screaming for accountability.

In a press release on Friday, Comer laid it all out: “It has been more than four months since Bill and Hillary Clinton were subpoenaed to sit for depositions related to our investigation into Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell’s horrific crimes. Throughout that time, the former President and former Secretary of State have delayed, obstructed, and largely ignored the Committee staff’s efforts to schedule their testimony.”

He didn’t stop there, adding a clear threat: “If the Clintons fail to appear for their depositions next week or schedule a date for early January, the Oversight Committee will begin contempt of Congress proceedings to hold them accountable.”

A spokesperson for Comer doubled down to Fox News, confirming direct communication with the Clintons’ attorney: “We communicated to the Clintons’ attorney today that they must appear next week or provide a date in early January to appear for their depositions or we will begin contempt of Congress proceedings. They’ve been dragging their feet for over four months. Time’s up.”

This escalation comes hot on the heels of President Trump’s bold demand for the total release of Epstein files, dismissing the whole scandal as a “Democrat Hoax” meant to smear Republicans while shielding their own. 

Trump urged House Republicans to vote for declassification, declaring, “We have nothing to hide, and it’s time to move on from this Democrat Hoax perpetrated by Radical Left Lunatics in order to deflect from the Great Success of the Republican Party.”

Trump emphasized the need to keep the focus on GOP wins, warning that Epstein distractions shouldn’t overshadow them: “What I just don’t want is for Epstein to detract from the great success of the Republican Party… It’s a Democrat hoax.”

The Clintons’ defiance couldn’t be more telling, especially given Bill’s own admissions in his 2024 book Citizen: My Life After the White House, where he confessed to flying on Epstein’s plane for Clinton Global Initiative work and lamented, “I wish I had never met him,” claiming it wasn’t worth the scrutiny.

Yet, Epstein’s 17 White House visits right after Clinton’s 1993 inauguration paint a different picture—one of deep entanglements that demand answers, not excuses.

Comer’s subpoenas didn’t stop at the Clintons; they targeted other heavyweights like former AG William Barr, ex-FBI Director Robert Mueller, former AG Loretta Lynch, and former FBI Director James Comey, all potentially linked to the Epstein-Maxwell web.

In November, Comer fired off a letter to the Clintons’ lawyer insisting on in-person depositions, rejecting any virtual dodges. The spokesperson told Fox the Clintons “believe they are above the law and are trying to avoid giving depositions.”

With contempt proceedings now on the table and a potential House floor vote for full file release looming, the noose is tightening.

Meanwhile, Democrats Desperately continue to flog the dead horse of attempting to link Trump to the Epstein files.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 10:05

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased Slightly in December, Negative territory for 20 consecutive months

Calculated Risk -

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, up from 38 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 39 in December.

Here are the readings for the three HMI indices in December:

• Current sales conditions increased one point to 42.

• Sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 52.

• Traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 26.

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 40% of builders reported cutting prices in December, marking the second consecutive month the share has been at 40% or higher since May 2020. It was 41% in November. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in December, down from the 6% rate in November. The use of sales incentives was 67% in December, the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for twenty consecutive months.

Chile Turns Hard To The Right: Tough-On-Crime, Anti-Immigration Candidate Easily Wins Presidency

Zero Hedge -

Chile Turns Hard To The Right: Tough-On-Crime, Anti-Immigration Candidate Easily Wins Presidency

In an election where the decisive themes echoed mounting concerns in the Americas and Europe, a conservative who's vowed to crack down on illegal immigration and crime trounced his Communist opponent in Sunday's presidential election in Chile. The result confirms a major political current that now has many Latin American countries embracing right-wing politics. 

Jose Antonio Kast has promised to build physical barriers on the country's northern frontier (Esteban Felix - AP via El Pais)

With 98% of the votes counted, 57-year-old José Antonio Kast was coasting to a 58%-to-42% clobbering of Jeannette Jara, a member of the Communist Party. Kast, a devout Roman Catholic and father of nine, will replace incumbent leftist President Gabriel Boric. It was Kast's third presidential bid. Underscoring the comprehensiveness of his victory, Kast won all of Chile's regions, including historic leftist strongholds. 

“Chile will be free from crime again, free from anguish, free from fear,” said Kast in a victory speech at his campaign headquarters in the capital city of Santiago. "Chile needs order." He assured supporters he would clamp down on criminals and "lock them up." Supporters displayed banners with slogans like "Bye-Bye Illegals" and "Play Time is Over." 

Jose Antonio Kast embraces his wife at a rally in Chile

Crime weighed heavily in the contest, with 63% of Chileans saying it was their biggest worry. That's about double the global average. Illegal immigration (40%) is the second-biggest concern. The two worries go hand-in-hand, as a 50% surge in murders from 2018 to 2024 is largely the work of international criminal gangs. Chile has more than 300,000 illegal immigrants, many of them Venezuelan. 

At Kast's victory rally, supporters wore red "Make Chile Great Again" hats, and confirmed that crime helped flip the country into the right-wing country. "I grew up in a peaceful Chile where you could go out in the street, you had no worry, you went out and you never had problems or fear," 23-year-old engineering student Ignacio Segovia told Reuters. "Now you can't go out peacefully."

Kast will take office in March. Guiding off the inauguration date, he has repeatedly warned illegals of how many days they to self-deport, before his administration kicks them out. Self-deporation, Kast has said, will give them the opportunity to bring their possessions with them, while avoiding detention. "If you don't leave voluntarily, we will detain you, retain you, expel you, and you'll leave with what you have on," said Kast. Kast's looming victory had already had a striking effect, with wary illegal immigrants surging into Peru -- so much so that Peruvian President Jose Jeri declared a state of emergency in late November. Meanwhile, authorities along Chile's border say illegal entries have plummeted. 

Writing on X, Argentinian President Javier Milei was exuberant about the "crushing victory" of Kast, whom he described as a friend, adding:

"One more step for our region in defense of life, freedom, and private property. I am certain that we will work together so that America embraces the ideas of freedom and we can free ourselves from the oppressive yoke of twenty-first century socialism...!!!"

Milei also posted a map depicting South America's large number of right-wing governments, saying, "The left retreats, freedom advances." Chile joins Argentina, Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador as countries with right or center-right governments. The Bolivian outcome earlier this year ended nearly 20 years of socialist rule.  

Which country will be next? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 09:15

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