The post Healthcare Is Hard, Lying Republicans Make It Harder appeared first on CEPR.

Chile Turns Hard To The Right: Tough-On-Crime, Anti-Immigration Candidate Easily Wins Presidency

In an election where the decisive themes echoed mounting concerns in the Americas and Europe, a conservative who's vowed to crack down on illegal immigration and crime trounced his Communist opponent in Sunday's presidential election in Chile. The result confirms a major political current that now has many Latin American countries embracing right-wing politics. 

Jose Antonio Kast has promised to build physical barriers on the country's northern frontier (Esteban Felix - AP via El Pais)

With 98% of the votes counted, 57-year-old José Antonio Kast was coasting to a 58%-to-42% clobbering of Jeannette Jara, a member of the Communist Party. Kast, a devout Roman Catholic and father of nine, will replace incumbent leftist President Gabriel Boric. It was Kast's third presidential bid. Underscoring the comprehensiveness of his victory, Kast won all of Chile's regions, including historic leftist strongholds. 

“Chile will be free from crime again, free from anguish, free from fear,” said Kast in a victory speech at his campaign headquarters in the capital city of Santiago. "Chile needs order." He assured supporters he would clamp down on criminals and "lock them up." Supporters displayed banners with slogans like "Bye-Bye Illegals" and "Play Time is Over." 

Jose Antonio Kast embraces his wife at a rally in Chile

Crime weighed heavily in the contest, with 63% of Chileans saying it was their biggest worry. That's about double the global average. Illegal immigration (40%) is the second-biggest concern. The two worries go hand-in-hand, as a 50% surge in murders from 2018 to 2024 is largely the work of international criminal gangs. Chile has more than 300,000 illegal immigrants, many of them Venezuelan. 

At Kast's victory rally, supporters wore red "Make Chile Great Again" hats, and confirmed that crime helped flip the country into the right-wing country. "I grew up in a peaceful Chile where you could go out in the street, you had no worry, you went out and you never had problems or fear," 23-year-old engineering student Ignacio Segovia told Reuters. "Now you can't go out peacefully."

Kast will take office in March. Guiding off the inauguration date, he has repeatedly warned illegals of how many days they to self-deport, before his administration kicks them out. Self-deporation, Kast has said, will give them the opportunity to bring their possessions with them, while avoiding detention. "If you don't leave voluntarily, we will detain you, retain you, expel you, and you'll leave with what you have on," said Kast. Kast's looming victory had already had a striking effect, with wary illegal immigrants surging into Peru -- so much so that Peruvian President Jose Jeri declared a state of emergency in late November. Meanwhile, authorities along Chile's border say illegal entries have plummeted. 

This is Chile as thousand celebrate the election of a right wing government. Finally defeating the Unity for Chile coalition which includes socialists & communists.

Sick of crime, immigration & ideology, the people want their country back.

pic.twitter.com/HMx0xbA8Mk

— Bernie (@Artemisfornow) December 15, 2025

Writing on X, Argentinian President Javier Milei was exuberant about the "crushing victory" of Kast, whom he described as a friend, adding:

"One more step for our region in defense of life, freedom, and private property. I am certain that we will work together so that America embraces the ideas of freedom and we can free ourselves from the oppressive yoke of twenty-first century socialism...!!!"

Milei also posted a map depicting South America's large number of right-wing governments, saying, "The left retreats, freedom advances." Chile joins Argentina, Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador as countries with right or center-right governments. The Bolivian outcome earlier this year ended nearly 20 years of socialist rule.  

LA IZQUIERDA RETROCEDE
LA LIBERTAD AVANZA
VLLC! pic.twitter.com/TfXucNdCJY

— Javier Milei (@JMilei) December 14, 2025

Which country will be next? 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 09:15

Here's How Markets Have Performed Since The Start Of America's MAGA Experiment

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

MAGA: I remember 2017 well. It brought me to one knee. Trump had won the election in late 2016. The world braced itself for the chaos that was to come. Of course, we should all have known better. That’s not how markets work. Only rarely does an Artificial Superintelligence give investors extraordinary profits without inflicting ungodly pain. When it does give unearned gifts, it is to tempt us to foolishly bet on the obvious in some future market cycle. No ASI would ever operate in consistently predictable ways. Anyhow, over the course of 2017, the beginning of America’s MAGA experiment, here’s what happened in markets: 

• Dec 31 2016 - Dec 12 2017: S&P 500 +19.0% and VIX -4.12 at +9.92. Nikkei +19.6%, Shanghai +5.7%, Euro Stoxx +8.4%, Bovespa +22.6%, MSCI World +19.0%, MSCI Emerging +29.0%, Bitcoin +1711.8%, and Ethereum +8063.3%. USD rose +9.2% vs Turkey, +2.1% vs Brazil, and +0.7% vs Indonesia. USD fell -10.4% vs Euro, --7.4% vs Mexico, -7.3% vs Sterling, -5.2% vs India, -4.7% vs China, -4.6% vs Australia, -4.3% vs Canada, -3.8% vs Russia, -2.9% vs Yen. Gold +6.2%, Silver -3.9%, Oil +0.3%, Copper +19.7%, Iron Ore -20.1%, Corn -10.6%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +3bps at 1.28%, US -5bps at 1.92%, JP -12bps at 0.47%, and UK +5bps at 3.07%). 2yr Notes +64bps at 1.83% and 10yr Notes -4bps at 2.40%.

MAGA II: In 2017, the stock market grinded higher all year in an unprecedented fashion, so that by Dec 12, 2017, the VIX was below 10. Investors sold volatility aggressively, and the more they sold, the lower the VIX fell, reflexively. Which created the conditions for a series of volatility spikes that climaxed in Covid. In this first year of Trump II, we endured Independence Day, the VIX index hit 60, and we suffered so many policy flip flops that they barely affect the market at this point. Here’s how markets have done in the second stage of America’s MAGA experiment:

• Dec 31 2024 - Dec 12 2025: S&P 500 +16.6% and VIX -1.67 at +15.68. Nikkei +27.4%, Shanghai +16.1%, Euro Stoxx +14.3%, Bovespa +32.8%, MSCI World +19.9%, MSCI Emerging +28.0%, Bitcoin -2.5%, and Ethereum -4.0%. USD rose +20.8% vs Turkey, +5.6% vs India, and +3.3% vs Indonesia. USD fell -29.9% vs Russia, -16.1% vs Sweden, -13.3% vs Mexico, -12.3% vs Brazil, -11.8% vs Euro, -6.8% vs Australia, -6.3% vs Sterling, -4.2% vs Canada, -3.3% vs China, and -0.9% vs Yen. Gold +55.0%, Silver +101.7%, Oil -15.6%, Copper +28.8%, Iron Ore +1.3%, Corn -2.5%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +2bps at 1.79%, US -7bps at 2.27%, JP +31bps at 1.78%, and UK -50bps at 3.01%). 2yr Notes -71bps at 3.53% and 10yr Notes -39bps at 4.19%.

MAGA III: There is so much more to America than its politics. At its core, America is the greatest business enterprise the world has ever known. Politicians fight over the fair distribution of its spoils, while engaging in international policy experiments that shift from generation to generation. It appears we’ve entered a phase that’s more focused on the Western Hemisphere than Europe and Asia. Investors will look to historical periods for parallels. Perhaps they’ll find some that prove helpful. Definitive. I’m of the mind to keep mine open, searching our Artificial Superintelligence for signals, signs. Here’s how markets have performed since the start of America’s MAGA experiment in late 2016:

• Dec 31 2016 - Dec 12 2025: S&P 500 +207% and VIX +1.41 at +15.45. Nikkei +166%, Shanghai +26%, Euro Stoxx +61%, Bovespa +166%, MSCI World +154%, MSCI Emerging +60%, Bitcoin +9497%, and Ethereum +40147%. USD rose +1111% vs Turkey, +67% vs Brazil, +36% vs Chile, +33% vs Yen, +33% vs India, +29% vs Russia, +24% vs Indonesia, +23% vs South Africa, +9% vs Australia, +3% vs Canada, +2% vs Sweden, and +2% vs China. USD fell -13% vs Mexico, -10% vs Euro, and -8% vs Sterling. Gold +271%, Silver +288%, Oil +0.5%, Copper +115%, Iron Ore +21%, Corn +14.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +54bps at 1.79%, US +30bps at 2.27%, JP +119bps at 1.78%, and UK -1bp at 3.01%). 2yr Notes +235bps at 3.54% and 10yr Notes +174bps at 4.18%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 09:00

Xi Blasts "Reckless" Projects Exaggerating Growth After China Reveals Dismal Macro Data For November

China’s economic momentum slowed broadly in November, with a marked weakening in consumer spending, adding pressure on Beijing to stabilize household and business demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

Industrial production (IP) growth edged down in year-on-year terms despite the notable improvement in export growth, with slower output growth in automobile and utilities industries more than offsetting faster output growth in the special equipment and pharmaceuticals industries. 

Fixed asset investment (FAI) maintained its double-digit year-on-year contraction in November on a single-month basis, though we would not over-interpret its recent slump as our study suggests that the NBS statistical correction of previously over-reported data has played at least as large a role as fundamental factors (e.g., the "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn). 

Retail sales growth dropped meaningfully in November despite a low base, reflecting slowing auto sales growth and the negative distortion from an earlier-than-usual start of the “Double 11” Online Shopping Festival (which had pulled forward some demand from November to October, similar to the patterns observed in June). 

Year-on-year services industry output index growth – which is on a real basis and tracks tertiary (services) GDP growth closely – moderated in November. 

Property sector weakness continued in November, while unemployment rates remained largely stable. 

Regarding the labor market, the nationwide unemployment rate and the 31-city metric (not seasonally adjusted) both remained flat at 5.1% in November. The latest data available suggests the unemployment rate of the 16-24 age group declined to 17.3% in October from 17.7% in September, while Goldman cautions that this indicator may have underestimated the labor market challenges that younger generation is facing amid weak domestic demand, persistent deflation and fragile private sector confidence, because of the definition change.

Incorporating October-November activity data, Goldman's GDP tracking model based on the production approach points to a small downside risk to our Q4 real GDP growth forecast of 4.5% yoy.

And with downside economic risks building, Bloomberg reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping lashed out at inflated growth numbers and vowed to crack down on the pursuit of “reckless” projects that have no purpose except showing superficial results.

“All plans must be based on facts, aiming for solid, genuine growth without exaggeration, and promoting high-quality, sustainable development,” Xi said last week, according to a report on Sunday in the People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official newspaper.

“Those who act recklessly and aggressively without regard for reality, impose excessive demands, or deploy resources without careful consideration, must be held strictly accountable,” he said at the Central Economic Work Conference. 

Xi used stark language to call for quality in economic gains and listed examples of wrongdoing such as unnecessarily huge industrial parks, disorderly expansion of local exhibitions and forums, inflated statistics and “fake construction kickoffs.”

Access to data in China can be sensitive and controlled, making it hard for observers to assess the health of the economy, but Xi's latest remarks seem to suggest that he wants a revamp of the existing metrics used to evaluate local officials.

Finally, we note that the initial downturn in Chinese stocks was quickly bid back into positive territory after the 'bad data' as it appeared 'bad news' would be 'good news' from a 'most stimmies' perspective, but Xi's rant dragged stocks down to end the day in the red...

And as a reminder, we warned last week that the pace of money growth in China has slowed for a second month. If that’s sustained, global stocks could lose a hitherto supportive tailwind next year.

One snowflake doesn’t make a winter, but if M1 in China continues to pare back, that’s at least one tailwind global stocks won’t have next year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 08:45

US Futures Recover Most Of Friday's Dump As "Bad News Is Again Good News"

Stocks are set to recoup some of Friday’s tech-driven losses, with a big week of data releases ahead, as the last full week of 2025 comes witgh a bang. Still, sentiment seems a little shaky, with rising signs of skepticism over AI and debate about the extent of rate cuts next year. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts both rose 0.5% after Friday’s 1.1% cash market slump in which technology sector fell 2.9%. In premarket trading, Nvidia leads Mag 7 gains, climbing 1.1% with the rest of the group largely in the green. European stocks climbed 0.8%. 10-year Treasury yields ticked lower and the dollar index traded at session lows as the yen surged on renewed bets the BOJ would hike rates this week. Bitcoin rallied 1.3% to $89,652, adding to signs that risk sentiment is steadying. Today' key events include the December Empire manufacturing (8:30am) and NAHB housing market index (10am). Major releases later this week include November CPI Thursday. Fed speakers include Governor Miran (9:30am, 11am) and New York Fed’s Williams (10:30am).

In premarkt trading, Nvidia climbs 1.1% and is among leaders of a rebound in Magnificent Seven stocks after the group suffered a two-day drop amid concern over elevated spending and delays for projects tied to AI (Tesla +1.4%, Alphabet +0.7%, Amazon +0.4%, Apple +0.1%, Meta little changed, Microsoft is little changed).

• Mining stocks are higher amid a renewed advance in metals prices.
• Adobe (ADBE) slips 1.3% and ServiceNow (NOW) falls 4% after the pair were downgraded to underweight at Keybanc, which sees AI tools bringing a bigger hit to both software firms.
• Dole (DOLE) climbs less than 1% on light trading after the produce company agreed to sell port and port operations in Guayaquil, Ecuador, for $75m in cash.
• Entegris Inc. (ENTG) falls 2% after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation on the semiconductor materials company to sell from neutral on slow wafer recovery.
• GXO Logistics (GXO) declines 2.2% after the logistics company said Brad Jacobs will step down as non-executive chairman of the board, effective Dec. 31.
• Immunome (IMNM) soars 27% after the biotech company announced positive topline results from its Phase 3 trial of varegacestat.
• iRobot (IRBT) falls 72% after the company filed for bankruptcy and proposed handing over control to its main Chinese supplier.
• Teradyne (TER) gains 3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its recommendation to buy from sell, seeing an AI-driven demand uplift for the manufacturer of chip-testing equipment.
• ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) rises 4% after Calcalist reported that MSC has submitted a bid to purchase the Israeli shipping company, without saying where it got the information.

In corporate news, Roomba maker iRobot filed for bankruptcy and proposed handing over control to its main Chinese supplier. Korea Zinc plans to build a smelter in the US at an estimated cost of around $7.4 billion, backed by investments from the American government, to produce key materials used in chip-making, defense and aerospace.

Traders are looking to delayed jobs and inflation data this week to help fill the void left by the US government shutdown as they build a picture on the economy and interest rates. Citigroup joined the upbeat chorus on the outlook for US stocks next year, while Morgan Stanley' Michael Wilson wrote that the “good is bad/bad is good” trade is back, and weak jobs data on Tuesday could boost stocks as it would raise the probability of more rate cuts. The jobs number will also be critical for bond traders, who are betting on two rate cuts next year — one more reduction than the Fed is indicating.

“We are now firmly back into a good is bad/bad is good regime,” Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note. “Moderate” weakness in the labor market weakness “Is likely to be received in a bullish context by equity markets,” he said.

Citi strategists led by Scott Chronert said they expect robust earnings growth will deliver a 13% rally next year for the S&P 500. That implies double-digit gains for a fourth year running, and echoes optimistic forecasts by banks including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Goldman. “We anticipate an incremental shift from AI enablers to adopters/users in 2026, setting the stage for increased productivity improvement commentary across corporates,” Chronert wrote. “A generally supportive Fed is a key assumption in our playbook.”

Economists project a 50,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate, consistent with a sluggish, but not rapidly deteriorating, labor market (our full preview will hit later today). The US data will help answer the question entering 2026 of whether the Fed is close to being done easing, after three straight cuts, or if it has to move more aggressively. 

“We had the debate around closing our equities overweight, but we don’t believe the trend is yet ending,” said Philipp Lisibach, head of strategy and research at LGT Private Banking. “Exposure to AI continues to be rewarded, while rates and credit remain relatively unattractive. Equities still offer the most compelling risk-reward trade.”

As for the AI giants themselves, the debate among investors is whether to rein in exposure ahead of a potential bubble popping or double down on the game-changing technology. One big worry is rising depreciation expenses from the data center binge. Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta combined for about $10 billion in depreciation costs in 4Q 2023. That figure rose to nearly $22 billion in 3Q this year, and it’s expected to be about $30 billion by this time next year.

A final flurry of major central bank policy decisions is also due, with meetings at the Bank of England, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, among others.  National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett said he’d consider Trump’s policy opinions if he’s picked to lead the Fed, but rate decisions would stay independent. And Ukraine and the US are due to hold a second day of talks in Berlin on Monday about a plan aimed at ending Russia’s war, with allied security guarantees for Kyiv a central focus of the negotiations. 

In Europe, Stoxx 600 trades higher by 0.8%. Consumer stocks outperform on signs of better Chinese demand, while the health-care sector underperforms. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

Juventus shares rise as much as 14%, the most in more than a year, after the Agnellis family’s investment vehicle Exor NV rejected an unsolicited bid by Tether Holdings to acquire the Italian football club.

• Kering climbs as much as 4%, leading luxury stocks higher, after China vowed to increase financial support for key consumption areas.
• Puma shares also rise as much as 4% on the news that China will strengthen coordination between the commerce and financial sectors to boost consumption.
• Argenx shares fall as much as 9.7%, the most in more than seven months, after the biotechnology company discontinued its late-stage studies into thyroid eye disease.
• Sanofi shares sink as much as 6.4% after its experimental multiple sclerosis drug got hit with two setbacks: a regulatory delay in the US as well as a failure in a late-stage clinical trial.
• Rheinmetall leads European defense firms down, with its shares as much as 3.1% lower, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he could accept security guarantees from the US and Europe instead of NATO membership amid ongoing peace talks.
• Truecaller shares plummet as much as 29%, the most since 2023 and to a record low, after the Swedish caller ID platform guided for its 4Q ad revenues around 30% lower year-on-year.
• Schweiter Technologies shares fall as much as 14%, hitting their lowest level since 2005, after the maker of composite panels issued a profit warning that Zurcher Kantonalbank says was a surprise.

Elsewhere, Chinese indexes edged lower after the latest data showed retail sales growth was the weakest since Covid, while investment slumped further. Asian shares also dropped, tracking Wall Street’s losses on Friday, with South Korea — a poster child for AI exuberance — slipping 1.8%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is down 0.2% with the yen top of the G-10 leaderboard ahead of an expected BOJ rate hike on Friday. Kiwi lags after RBNZ Governor Breman pushed back on investor bets over a rate hike next year.

In rates, treasury futures held small gains accumulated during European morning as the region’s bonds advanced. Global bond yields also lean lower. Gilt prices outperform 10-year equivalents from the US and Germany with the BOE set to cut rates by 25bps on Thursday. US yields are 1.5bp to 2.5bp richer across the curve with front-end tenors lagging slightly, flattening 2s10s spread by around 1bp. 10-year near 4.16% is 2.3bp lower on the day, slightly outperforming German and UK counterparts. IG dollar bond issuance slate empty, with this week expected to be the final window for any companies looking to raise capital in the debt markets before year-end. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $24 billion 5-year TIPS Thursday. The week is packed with US economic data releases, including the delayed November jobs report on Tuesday. 

In commodities, crude oil prices are now lower after failing to hold onto opening gains.  Fed rate-cut bets also helped lift the price of gold on Monday. The yellow metal climbed for a fifth day to around $4,345 an ounce, approaching a record high; silver outperforms, higher by 2.9%. Bitcoin gains 1.5%. 

US economic calendar includes December Empire manufacturing (8:30am) and NAHB housing market index (10am). Major releases later this week include November CPI Thursday. Fed speakers include Governor Miran (9:30am, 11am) and New York Fed’s Williams (10:30am).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.7%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
• DAX +0.5%
• CAC 40 +1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.16%
• VIX +0.6 points at 16.37
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1205.59
• euro little changed at $1.1745
• WTI crude -0.2% at $57.35/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Affordability pressures are weighing heavily on the White House heading into next year’s midterm elections. They’re also offering cautious hope in Mexico and Canada that the U.S. won’t abandon its trilateral trade pact as the three countries enter a high-stakes review. Politico
• Trump is reportedly not certain his economic policies will translate to midterm wins, while he said his US investments haven’t fully taken effect and stated that by the time they have to talk about the election, which is in another few months, he thinks their prices are in good shape: WSJ
• White House economic adviser Hassett said he would consider US President Trump’s policy opinions, but added that the central bank would remain independent if he were to become the next Fed chair: BBG
• Apollo Management took bets against technology companies vulnerable to AI, in which it is betting against several large loans to software makers and cutting exposure to the sector, according to FT.
• SpaceX is moving forward with an insider share sale that values it at about $800 billion, setting up what could be the largest initial public offering of all time. WSJ, BBG
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled Ukraine may step back from its long-term goal of joining NATO if it can secure bilateral security agreements with the US, Europe and other states. It’s holding a second day of talks with the US in Berlin. BBG
• Fannie and Freddie have snapped up more than $50 billion of home loans as Trump administration officials seek to drive down mortgage rates. BBG
• The European Commission is expected on Tuesday to reverse the EU's effective ban on sales of new combustion-engine cars from 2035, bowing to intense pressure from Germany, Italy and European automakers struggling against Chinese and U.S. rivals. EV makers say reneging on ban would yield more ground to China. RTRS
• China’s economic momentum slowed broadly in November, with a marked weakening in consumer spending, adding pressure on Beijing to stabilize household and business demand in the world’s second-largest economy. Retail sales (+1.3% vs. the Street +2.9% and vs. +2.9% in Oct), industrial production (+4.8% vs. the Street +5% and vs. +4.9% in Oct), and investment (both fixed asset investment and property investment deteriorated in Nov). WSJ
• Vanke, one of China’s largest real-estate companies, made a renewed effort to muster bondholder backing for an onshore debt repayment due this week and avoid a default after the state-backed developer's plan was rejected, rekindling concerns about the nation's crisis-hit property sector. RTRS
• Japanese companies seem keen to raise wages again next year, despite many bracing for a tariff hit to profits, a central bank report shows days ahead of its next policy meeting. The findings will likely reinforce expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% this week. WSJ
• BoJ officials are likely to start selling the central bank’s pile of exchange-traded funds as early as next month, according to people familiar with the matter, a process expected to take decades to complete. RTRS

Trade/Tariffs

• US and Mexico reportedly struck a deal on Friday to settle the Rio Grande water dispute, which eases the bilateral tensions which had been stoked after US President Trump’s threat of an additional 5% tariff on Mexico if it did not provide additional water to help US farmers.
• China’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission Deputy Director said they will expand exports and increase imports in 2026.
• China's Customs allows dairy import products from Norway.
• An Indian Trade Official said India is engaging with Mexico on higher tariffs to protect its own trade interests. Said Mexico's primary target is not to hit Indian exports.
• India has proposed a "preferential trade agreement" with Mexico.
• India's Trade Secretary said India and the US are close to a "framework" deal but won't give a timeline.
• EU plans a crackdown on very dangerous Chinese products sold on online platforms, including Alibaba (9988 HK) and Shein, according to FT.
• France said conditions for an EU vote on a Mercosur deal are not yet met, despite recent progress, while France calls for the EU-Mercosur December meeting to be pushed back to continue work on mirror clauses.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly pressured at the start of a risk-packed week and following on from the tech-led declines stateside amid a rotation out of AI, while participants digested economic releases, including the BoJ Tankan and Chinese activity data. ASX 200 retreated with the declines led by mining, materials, resources and tech  sectors, with the mood in Australia also sombre following a terror attack on Bondi Beach targeting a Jewish celebration. Nikkei 225 underperformed ahead of a widely anticipated BoJ rate hike later this week, while the quarterly BoJ Tankan survey showed sentiment of Large Manufacturers was at the highest in four years, which supports the case for a rate  hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the latest Chinese activity data disappointed and house prices continued to contract, with tech and biotech leading the declines in Hong Kong, while losses in the mainland were contained after reports that China is to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2026 to fund major national strategies and security initiatives, as well as large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs.

Top Asian News

• China is to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2026 to fund major national strategies and security initiatives, as well as large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs.
• China stats bureau spokesperson said China’s economy stabilised and improved in November, but the impact of changes in the external environment has deepened, and the conflict between strong domestic supply and weak demand is prominent. The spokesperson also noted that some industries and firms face difficulties, while authorities will step up counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Furthermore, it was stated that household consumption capability and confidence need to be further improved, with efforts to be made to stabilise jobs, boost income growth, and release consumption potential.
• China Vanke’s (2202 HK) proposal for a one-year delay of repayment for a bond due December 15th was rejected by bondholders, which leaves a five-day grace period to make the CNY 2bln bond payment and avoid a potential default.
• Hong Kong’s Democratic Party voted on Sunday to dissolve amid pressure from Beijing and previous alleged threats of severe consequences, including possible arrest if they did not disband, according to The Guardian.
• BoJ is likely to begin selling its ETF holdings as soon as January, according to Bloomberg.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said the economic outlook has evolved broadly in line with expectations, and the forward path for the Official Cash Rate published in the November monetary policy statement indicates a slight probability of another rate cut in the near term. However, she added that if economic conditions evolve as expected, the official cash rate is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for some time. Breman also commented that there continues to be signs that growth is recovering and financial market conditions have tightened since the November decision, beyond what is implied by the central projection for the OCR.
• BoK said NPS agrees to extend its currency swap agreement for another year, with Bloomberg reporting that the NPS is to take a flexible approach to strategic FX hedging.
• China NPC Standing Committee to hold a meeting between December 22-27. NPC Standing Committee to review draft revision to foreign trade law.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) opened on a stronger footing and traded at elevated levels throughout the morning. Upside, which comes despite a broadly lower APAC session, where Chinese stocks were subdued after the latest Chinese activity data disappointed. European sectors are broadly in the green, with a cyclical bias as Autos leads whilst Healthcare underperforms; the latter has also been dragged down by losses in Sanofi (-4%) after the Co. flagged delays in an FDA decision for Tolebrutinib.

Top European News

• Swiss SECO forecasts: US Tariff reduction has strengthened outlook 2025. Sees 2025 GDP (sports adj.) at +1.4% (prev. exp. +1.3%). Sees CPI +0.2% (prev. exp. +0.2%). 2026. Sees GDP (sports adj.) +1.1% (prev. exp. +0.9%). Sees CPI at +0.2% (prev. exp. +0.5%) 2027. Sees GDP (sports adj.) +1.7%. Sees CPI at +0.5%.
• UK's OFCOM launches a probe into BT (BT/ LN) and Three, following UK-wide outages in the summer

FX

• G10s are mixed against the Dollar with clear outperformance in the JPY, whilst the Kiwi lags vs the USD after RBNZ’s Bremen said that the forward path for the official cash rate published in the November monetary policy statement indicates a slight probability of another rate cut in the near term.- DXY is a touch lower on the day, but likely a function of JPY strength (see below). No specific macro catalysts for the greenback as the week kicks off, but late on Friday, US President Trump said he was leaning towards Kevin Warsh or Hassett to lead the Fed. DXY trades within 98.29-98.48 parameters. The session is likely to focus on commentary from Fed's Miran, expected to explain his dissent in last week's FOMC meeting, while the influential Williams will speak on economic growth.
• JPY is the clear outperformer in the G10 FX space, where the BoJ is set to raise rates for the first time since January 2025. Japan's Tankan survey overnight bolstered the case for a hike in Friday's meeting, where the reading suggested overall business sentiment improved in Q4 and inflation expectations stood pat at 2.4% for the 1, 3, and 5-year horizons. Markets currently assign a c. 80% probability that the BoJ lifts rates by 25bps on Friday. USD/JPY began trundling lower after hitting the psychological 166 level, and 21DMA at 155.96, to a session low of 154.96.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0656 vs exp. 7.0569 (Prev. 7.0638)

Fixed Income

• USTs are currently firmer today by a handful of ticks, and reside at the upper end of a 112-06 to 112-12 range. Overnight trade saw US paper saunter higher, but lacked a clear driver – no hints provided from a yield perspective either, with rates lower to a similar magnitude across the board. Markets now await Fed speak from Miran and Williams, and the former is expected to release an explanation of his dovish dissent last week. Then the focus will turn to key US data in the coming days, namely NFP and CPI.
• Bunds are also in the green, albeit to a lesser extent than peers; currently within a 127.45 to 127.64 confine. Earlier, German Wholesale Sales M/M printed in-line with expectations, whilst Y/Y rose from the prior; the inner report pinned the rise to “higher prices of food, beverages and tobacco”. Elsewhere, focus has been on geopolitics whereby Zelensky suggested that Ukraine is willing to drop NATO membership ambitions, in favour of security guarantees. Negotiations between Ukrainian and US officials will continue in Germany later today.
• Gilts also gain in today’s session, in line with peers. Nothing really much from a UK perspective this morning, aside from UK Rightmove House Prices, which continued to show contractions. An exec at the firm said, “with market conditions supporting higher levels of activity, and a hopefully more certain economic environment, we forecast a better year for price growth in 2026 with a strong rebound in activity to kickstart the year”. The docket is very thin from a UK perspective, but will pick up starting from tomorrow, where a slew of key data will precede a BoE rate decision on Thursday.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent initially started the week positively following better Chinese demand, but have failed to sustain a bid higher, as US envoys meet with European and Ukrainian officials in Berlin. Benchmarks dipped to a trough of USD 57.32/bbl and USD 61.07/bbl, respectively, at the start of the APAC session, before gradually bidding higher to a high of USD 57.62/bbl and USD 61.50/bbl. Despite the improved Chinese oil demand and reports of Iran seizing a foreign tanker, benchmarks have fallen into the European open and are currently trading near session lows.
• Spot XAU has started the week on the front foot as ETF flows, central bank buying, and XAG short squeeze continue to support the yellow metal. After Friday's liquidation selloff to a trough of USD 4257/oz, XAU bounced in the latter part of last week. The yellow metal opened at USD 4304/oz and gradually trended higher throughout the APAC session and thus far, remains at session highs of USD 4350/oz with ATHs just c. USD 30/oz away.
• 3M LME Copper, among most markets, got caught up in the tech-led selloff on Friday but has rebounded as the European session gets underway. Despite the selloff on Friday, ANZ analysts note that "demand for the metal continues to beat expectations despite the fall in China's economic growth", adding that the bank is bullish with the expectation that the market will move further into a deficit in 2026.
• India's November gold imports at USD 4.02bln (prev. USD 14.7bln); oil imports at USD 14.12bln (prev. USD 14.8bln).
• Russia's Nornickel sees a global nickel surplus at more than 200KT in 2025 and 2026, sees the global Palladium market balanced in 2025, sees a deficit at 0.2 MoZ, including investments.
• The US asks the EU to exempt US gas from methane law obligations until 2035.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s military conducted a strike on Gaza, which killed senior Hamas commander Raed Saed, while the Israeli military said it put a planned strike on a southern Lebanon site on hold after the Lebanese Army requested access.
• Two US Army soldiers and a civilian US interpreter were killed in Syria, while the Syrian government said the attacker was a member of Syrian security forces with extremist views. It was later reported that US President Trump said they will retaliate against ISIS and that there will be a lot of damage done to the people who attacked the troops in Syria.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said a lot of progress is being made on Russia and Ukraine, while he responded that they don’t want it now, and it would be complex when asked about the idea of a free economic zone in the Donbas region.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said services have been working to restore electricity, heating and water supply to regions following Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. Zelensky also commented that there won’t be a peace plan that everyone will like and there will be compromises, while he also stated that US and European security guarantees, instead of NATO membership, are a compromise from Ukraine’s side and that security guarantees should be legally binding.
• Ukrainian presidential adviser said Ukraine and US teams meeting on peace proposals in Berlin lasted more than five hours on Sunday and will continue on Monday, while US special envoy Witkoff said a lot of progress was made during the talks.
• Ukrainian military said it struck a Russian oil refinery in the Krasnodar region and a Russian oil depot in the Volgograd region, while Ukraine’s Navy said a Russian drone attack hit a Turkish civilian vessel carrying sunflower oil to Egypt on Saturday.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Varvarivka in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, according to RIA.
• EU's Kallas said new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet will be decided today. Adds that the EU has delivered 2mln artillery rounds to Ukraine this year. Will not leave the EU summit without a decision on funding for Ukraine.
• Lithuania's Foreign Minister said he expects the EU to widen the Belarus sanctions regime to include hybrid activity. Ukraine needs something like Article 5 in terms of security guarantees, with a nuclear deterrent.
• Russia's Kremlin said Ukraine not joining NATO is a key question but subject to special discussion. Expects the US to update Russian officials on the proposals from the Berlin talks.
• Washington reportedly still wants Ukraine to cede the Donbas region to Russia, via Sky News Arabia citing official familiar with the negotiations.

Geopolitics: Other

• US envoy John Coale said Belarusian President Lukashenko agreed to do all he can to stop weather balloons flying into Lithuania, while Coale also stated that the US will remove sanctions on Belarusian potash and that around 1,000 remaining political prisoners in Belarus could be released in the coming months.
• US President Trump said land strikes against Venezuela will start happening and don’t necessarily have to be in Venezuela.
• US President Trump said on Friday that he had a very good conversation with the Thai and Cambodian PMs, while he added that they agreed to cease all shooting effective that evening and go back to the original peace accord. However, it was reported over the weekend that Thailand’s PM Charnvirakul said his country has not reached a ceasefire agreement with Cambodia and the Thai military will continue fighting on the disputed border.
• Philippine Coast Guard said three Filipino fishermen were wounded and two fishing boats suffered significant damage from high-pressure water cannon blasts by Chinese Coast Guard ships in the South China Sea, while it called on China’s Coast Guard to adhere to internationally recognised standards of conduct.
• China sanctioned the former chief of staff of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, in which it froze properties, prohibiting transactions with, and barring visas for former Japanese official Iwasaki.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Dec Empire Manufacturing, est. 10, prior 18.7
• 10:00 am: Dec NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 39, prior 38
• Central Banks (All Times ET):
• 9:30 am: Fed’s Miran Delivers Talk on Inflation Outlook
• 10:30 am: Fed’s Williams delivers Keynote Remarks
• 11:00 am: Fed’s Miran Appears on CNBC

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’ve launched our big 2026 Global Financial Market Survey with many questions on your views for the year ahead. It includes, after a two-year gap, asking you your favourite Xmas song. Where you think the S&P 500 or Mag-7 ends up creates nothing like the controversy of the announcing your favourite Xmas song. You can complete the survey here. It closes on Wednesday. All help filling in very much appreciated.  

Welcome to the last full week of the year. It's started with me sneezing, eyes watering and completely bunged up. The flu? No! Just a kids Xmas party last night where unbeknownst to me they had a cat. I'm very allergic to them. The cat actually had the right idea and had already left for the evening due to the noise. Sadly, I had to endure the noise and the cat's airborne residue.

So not the greatest start to the week for me and just when you thought it was safe to wind down for Christmas, the coming week is shaping up to be a significant one for global markets, with a dense calendar of economic releases and major central bank decisions. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all have a chance to be Scrooges or Santas in their meetings this week. Alongside these announcements, the data flow will be heavy: the US will finally publish delayed employment and inflation reports, while flash PMIs for December and will provide clues on global momentum.  

It’s also an interesting time for global markets with long-end yields at or around multi-month or even multi-year highs (e.g. Japan and 30yr Europe) at the same time as the weakest AI stories are increasingly being punished rather than the pre-September period when AI all went up together. If that wasn’t enough, another notable Fed story came late on Friday, as President Trump suggested that NEC Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh were his two favoured candidates for the Fed Chair role. Hassett has been viewed as the frontrunner in recent weeks but following Trump’s interview his Polymarket odds fell from around 73% late on Friday to 52% this morning. Warsh has gone from 13% before the interview to 40% this morning. So, it's fair to say there’s a lot of unfinished business going into the last full trading week of the year.

For this week specifically, in the United States, attention will centre on tomorrow’s twin employment reports for October and November, delayed by the recent government shutdown. October’s headline payrolls are expected to show a decline of around -60k (DB forecasts here and below), largely due to federal layoffs with all the early year buy-out offers coming off payroll in October. November should rebound modestly with a gain of +50k (DB). Private sector hiring is likely to remain steady in both months at around +50k (DB), slightly below the recent trend. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.5 per cent in November from 4.4 per cent in September (we will never know October), while average hourly earnings should increase by 0.3 per cent in both months, keeping year-on-year nominal compensation growth near 4.4 per cent. Hours worked are expected to stabilise at 34.3. Given the distortions caused by the shutdown, the household survey could be noisy, echoing patterns seen after the 2013 episode. For a cleaner read on labour market conditions, Thursday’s jobless claims will be important and given our economists believe this will come in at around +225k, they believe underlying hiring trends remain intact.

Inflation will also be in focus with Thursday’s US CPI release. Because October data were not collected, the report will centre on year-on-year changes. Headline CPI is expected to hold broadly steady at 3.03%, while core inflation remains at 3.02%. Monthly headline gains across October and November should average +0.24%, slightly below September’s pace with core slightly above at +0.26%. Within the details, core goods prices are likely to show modest increases in household furnishings and apparel, while used car prices continue to decline. Core services will attract particular attention, especially rents, which are expected to rebound after September’s anomalous weakness. Airline fares and lodging should soften from their recent highs, though health insurance may surprise on the upside. Beyond jobs and inflation, Tuesday’s retail sales report will offer insight into consumer spending. We anticipate a headline decline of -0.3%, driven by autos and lower fuel prices, but retail control—the component used in GDP calculations—should rise by +0.3%, signalling resilience in underlying demand. Friday’s final reading of University of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected at 54.0, with inflation expectations likely to matter more than the headline figure.

On policy, last week’s FOMC meeting delivered a 25bps rate cut and signalled a “wait and see” approach. Chair Powell struck a dovish tone, emphasising labour market risks over inflation. This week’s Fedspeak will reinforce that message, with Governor Miran and New York Fed President Williams speaking today, followed by Governor Waller and Williams again on Wednesday. Atlanta Fed President Bostic closes the week on Friday. Miran, who dissented in favour of a larger cut, is expected to reiterate his view that shelter inflation will collapse in coming quarters.

In Europe, Thursday brings a cluster of central bank decisions. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2 per cent (see our econ preview here), while the Bank of England is forecast to deliver its sixth cut of the cycle, lowering Bank Rate to 3.75 per cent on a narrow 5-4 vote. See our economist’s preview here. The Riksbank and Norges Bank will also decide on policy on the same day with both likely to stay on hold. Ahead of the BoE meeting, UK labour market data on Tuesday and CPI on Wednesday will be closely watched. Headline inflation is forecast to ease to 3.51% year-on-year, while core ticks up slightly to 3.46% (see our economist’s preview here). Retail sales and consumer confidence on Friday will round out the UK calendar. In Germany, the Ifo survey on Wednesday and consumer confidence on Friday will provide further insight into regional conditions as fiscal spending starts to ramp up. Across the Atlantic, Canadian inflation is out today which is interesting given the sharp move from pricing in a slightly easing bias earlier this month to almost a full hike by the end of 2026 now.

Across Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday and is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 0.75 per cent, with a 94% probability priced in by markets. See our economist’s thoughts here. Japan’s nationwide CPI for November will also be released on Friday, with core inflation forecast to slow to 2.9% and core-core to 3.0%. Global flash PMIs for December, covering the US, UK, Japan, Germany and France, will be published tomorrow and will offer early signals on fourth-quarter growth trends.

Asian equity markets have kicked off the week notably lower after a difficult US session on Friday. Across the region, tech-focused exchanges are the poorest performers, with the KOSPI (-1.34%) and the Nikkei (-1.36%) leading the losses, followed by the Hang Seng (-1.15%). Mainland Chinese stocks are outperforming a bit due to less AI exposure and after a series of disappointing economic indicators (details below) may be raising stimulus odds. The CSI (-0.41%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.31%) registering minor losses due to reduced exposure to the global AI market. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.72%) is also trading lower. S&P 500 (+0.31%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.24%) are both bouncing back a bit though.

Returning to China, the economic slowdown intensified in November, with retail sales increasing by only +1.3% last month compared to the same period last year, significantly below Bloomberg's forecast of +2.9% growth, and a decrease from the +2.9% rise recorded in the previous month. Industrial production rose by 4.8% in November year-on-year, falling short of the anticipated 5% increase and marking the weakest growth since August 2024. Business investment remained weak in November, with fixed asset investment declining by -2.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of a -2.3% drop. This decline has worsened from the -1.7% decrease observed from January to October, representing the most significant downturn since the pandemic began in 2020. A separate report indicated that new home prices in China continued to fall, decreasing by -0.39% m/m in November, compared to a -0.5% decline in the previous month, suggesting that we're still waiting for a recovery in demand even with government assurances that they will stabilise the sector.

Recapping last week now and US equities saw a mixed week, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high on Thursday but slumping by -1.07% on Friday to end the week -0.63% lower. Concerns about the sustainability of AI-related spending weighed on tech with the NASDAQ down by -1.62% (-1.69% Friday) and the Mag-7 by -1.86% (-0.75% Friday). Oracle (-12.69%, -4.47% Friday but rallying off the day’s lows) and Broadcom (-7.77%, -11.43% Friday) plunged after their earnings reports. But there was rotation towards more blue-chip stocks, with the Dow Jones (+1.05%, -0.51% Friday) holding onto a sizeable weekly gain.  

The rates space saw a significant curve steepening as the FOMC delivered a third consecutive 25bp cut. While the Fed signalled a possible pause in early 2026, dovish hints supported 2026 rate cut expectations. Fed fund pricing for December 2026 was little changed over the week but down by -7.4bps from its peak on Tuesday, with 56bps of rate cuts now priced for 2026. The next cut is 54% priced by March. Front-end Treasury yields declined, with the 2yr yield falling by -3.8bps to 3.52% (-1.8bps Friday). By contrast, the 10yr yield (+4.9bps to 4.18%; +2.7bps Friday) and the 30yr yield (+5.3bps to 4.84%; +4.5bps Friday) both posted their highest levels since September, bringing the 2s10s slope to its steepest since January 2022, just before the Fed started its post-Covid hiking cycle. Meanwhile, recent money market tightness eased as the Fed also announced the commencement of reserve-management purchases of Treasury bills.  

In Europe, government bonds sold off amid rising global term premia and hawkish comments by the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel. 10yr bund yields rose +5.9bps to 2.86%, their highest weekly close since March, with OATs (+5.3bps) and BTPs (+6.3bps) similarly higher. The OAT outperformance came as the French parliament approved the social security budget. In the equity space, Friday’s -0.53% decline left the STOXX 600 little changed on the week (-0.09%).

Germany’s DAX (+0.66%, -0.45% Friday) outperformed, in part helped by a Bloomberg report that German lawmakers are set to approve €52bn in defence orders next week, with Rheinmetall climbing +5.66% as a result. In the UK, the FTSE 100 (-0.19%, -0.56% Friday) wasn’t helped  by a soft monthly GDP reading on Friday (-0.1% vs +0.1% expected). Meanwhile, European credit outperformed the US, with HY spreads tightening by -1bps in contrast to a +11bps widening across the Atlantic.

In commodities, Brent crude prices fell -4.13% to $61.12/bbl, to within one dollar of their 2025 lows seen back in May. In contrast, gold rose by +2.43% to $4,300/oz as investors returned to safe haven assets. Bitcoin (+1.12% on the week) managed to reclaim the $90,000 level despite a -2.89% decline on Friday.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 08:32

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 13.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.3%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.1%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, however inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 12th, inventory was at 775 thousand (7-day average), compared to 795 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Hanukkah Security Ramped Up Across West After Sydney Terror Attack Shocks World

Major cities across the Western world are ramping up security around Hanukkah events after a terrorist attack killed 16 people and wounded 38 at a Jewish celebration on Sydney's Bondi Beach over the weekend. The attack was one of the deadliest terror incidents in Australia in decades and came just days after a Trump administration official warned that the Biden-Harris regime had allowed 18,000 "known and suspected terrorists" into the U.S.

Taken together, from the Bondi Beach terror attack to Christmas market attacks in Europe, and even the Afghan national who killed one U.S. National Guard member and seriously wounded another just blocks from the White House last month, what is unfolding across the West is the dire consequence of nation-killing open border policies (promoted by Democrats) backfiring into colossal security failures.

Authorities in Berlin, London, New York, Warsaw, and across France announced heightened police presence at synagogues, public menorah lightings, and Jewish institutions.

Berlin intensified security at the Brandenburg Gate menorah lighting, New York deployed additional protection citywide, Warsaw increased armed guards at its main synagogue, and France ordered reinforced security at Jewish sites through this week and into next.

"We have long planned comprehensive security for tonight's Hanukkah event at the Brandenburg Gate — in light of the events in Sydney, we will further intensify our measures and maintain a strong police presence there," a spokesperson said on X.

London's Metropolitan Police told The Times of Israel that it had increased security but did not want to provide full details.

"While there is no information to suggest any link between the attack in Sydney and the threat level in London, this morning, we are stepping up our police presence, carrying out additional community patrols, and engaging with the Jewish community to understand what more we can do in the coming hours and days," a police spokesperson said.

France's Interior Minister Laurent Nunez told local police to reinforce security around Jewish places of worship from Sunday through next Tuesday, a ministry spokesperson told Reuters.

At Warsaw's main synagogue in Poland, armed security was doubled for the Sunday evening event.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., New York City Mayor Eric Adams said on X that additional security forces were being deployed for Hanukkah celebrations and synagogues across the metro area.

"We will continue to ensure the Jewish community can celebrate the holiday in safety — including at public menorah lightings across the city. Let us pray for the injured and stand together against hatred," Adams said.

All of this is a symptom of mass migration failure driven by liberal elites across the West, whose suicidal empathy has jeopardized national security.

Political strategist and analyst from the UAE, Amjad Taha, warned on X:

I said it on 14 December 2024. And it happened on 14 December 2025. Yes, my country, the UAE, banned them. I said it clearly to the Jewish community at a Bondi Beach restaurant in Australia: when a government allows antisemitism, it invites terror. It leads directly to Muslim Brotherhood– and Islamist jihadist–inspired violence.

Today, in Western Sydney, you have glorifiers of the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood–led army, the same people who celebrated October 7 and who are now justifying terrorist attacks. This did not come out of nowhere. This is the inevitable result of hatred that is tolerated, normalised, and protected.

In Israel, Jews are attacked. In Australia, Jews are attacked. So tell us, honestly: where do you want this nation to go? A society that cannot protect its Jewish citizens is a society losing its soul. Antisemitism is not protest. It is not opinion. It is the gateway to terror.

Humanity MUST STAND with the Jewish community now. Silence is no longer neutrality. It is surrender.

I said it on 14 December 2024. And it happened on 14 December 2025. Yes, my country, the UAE, banned them. I said it clearly to the Jewish community at a Bondi Beach restaurant in Australia: when a government allows antisemitism, it invites terror. It leads directly to Muslim… pic.twitter.com/mUd7ugCTjO

— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) December 14, 2025

The UAE's Foreign Minister issued a dire warning to the West in 2017:

7 years ago, the UAE’s Foreign Minister issued a warning to the West.

His words now sound more prophetic than ever. pic.twitter.com/ytKwcngCeP

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 14, 2025

Last week, National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent warned the House Homeland Security Committee that the Biden-Harris regime flooded America with 18,000 "known and suspected terrorists"...

.@NCTCKent: "So far, NCTC has identified around 18,000 known and suspected terrorists that the Biden administration let come into our country." pic.twitter.com/XPrHdKMICK

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) December 11, 2025

Disgust is brewing across the West toward liberal elites, including Democrats in the U.S., who threatened national security by importing large numbers of unvetted migrants in pursuit of a new voting base. The days of anyone challenging open border policies and being dismissed as a "racist" by Democrats are over. Time to ramp up deportations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 07:45

Over 10,000 Illegal Immigrants Arrested In Los Angeles In Last 6 Months: DHS

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal immigration authorities have arrested more than 10,000 illegal immigrants living in Los Angeles since June, the Department of Homeland Security said on Dec. 11.

Law enforcement officers shoot non-lethal munitions, as people march as part of the ongoing protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in Los Angeles, on June 11, 2025. Leah Millis/File Photo /Reuters

The arrests include aliens with criminal histories, including those convicted of murder, kidnapping, sexual assaults, and other violent crimes, according to officials.

Officials underscored that their operations have been consistently undertaken amid assaults on agents by protesters who have thrown projectiles and firebombs, as well as attempted to interfere with agents in the middle of detaining suspects.

“In the face of violence from rioters and demonization by sanctuary politicians, DHS law enforcement has made over 10,000 arrests in Los Angeles since operations began in June. Some of the most heinous criminal illegal aliens arrested include murderers, kidnappers, sexual predators, and armed carjackers,” Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement.

She said that California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass failed the people of California, alleging that the state allows criminals to roam free.

“Thanks to our brave law enforcement, California is safer with these thugs off their streets,” McLaughlin said. “Instead of thanking our law enforcement for removing criminals from their communities, Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass repeatedly demonized our brave law enforcement during these operations.”

Among the criminal illegal aliens arrested are Alireza Hashemi, from Iran, convicted of rape, aggravated assault, domestic violence, burglary, and driving under the influence, according to the statement.

Andres Velasquez-Ocampo, from Mexico, was convicted of armed carjacking, vehicle theft, and vandalism, it said.

Juan Carlos Tamayo, from Mexico, was convicted of homicide, conspiracy to commit homicide, and multiple counts of attempted murder, it stated.

Ambartsoum Pogosium, from Armenia, was convicted of kidnapping, homicide, fraud, burglary, larceny, and forgery, it said.

Rene Reyes-Miranda, from Cuba, was convicted of a sex offense against a child, sex offender registration violation, harassing communication, cocaine possession, robbery, burglary, larceny, probation violation, property crimes, possession of stolen property, and possession of burglary tools, the statement said.

Akop Jack Kantrozyan, from Armenia, was convicted of identity theft, burglary, multiple counts of conspiracy to commit a crime, larceny, multiple counts of fraud, receiving stolen property, shooting at an inhabited dwelling/vehicle, possession of a firearm, grand theft of access cards, violation of parole, battery, and conspiracy to defraud the United States, it said.

Everado Garcia Martinez, from Mexico, was convicted of vehicle theft, armed carjacking, and amphetamine possession, according to the statement.

Jose Manuel Perfecto Hernandez Corrales, from Mexico, was convicted of possession of stolen property and attempting to import methamphetamine into the United States, it said.

Yonic Telles-Sosa, from Mexico, has been previously removed from the United States on five occasions. He received a final order of removal in 2013 and has been convicted three times of knowingly and unlawfully entering the United States, robbery, marijuana possession, and aggravated sexual assault of a child, it said.

Mohamed Chekchekani, from Kenya, was convicted of facilitating interstate commerce in aid of a racketeering enterprise, larceny, stolen property, and drug possession, it continued.

During the operations, civil rights organizations, such as the ACLU Foundation of Southern California, filed a lawsuit in July alleging that raids violated constitutional rights.

A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order in July blocking arrests without probable cause, a ruling upheld by an appeals court in August despite DHS efforts to have it overturned.

California officials announced an online portal earlier this month so that the public can report suspected misconduct by federal agents, with the goals of documenting potential rights violations and providing legal support for illegal immigrants facing arrests and deportation.

A statement from Newsom’s office said that federal agents have broad authority to enforce federal laws, including federal immigration laws, but that they must do so lawfully.

“We’re not going to stand by while anyone—including federal agents—abuses their authority in California,” Newsom said. “This new portal gives Californians an easy and safe way to speak up, share what they see, and help us hold people accountable. No one is above the law.”

Agents faced an 8,000 percent increase in death threats since the start of deportation operations, according to DHS data.

In a June raid on illegal marijuana cultivation sites in Southern California, federal agents arrested as many as 75 illegal aliens, and at least one U.S. citizen was arrested for impeding law enforcement.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 07:20

My off-to-vacation morning plane reads:

• The Concentration Bears Have Steered You Wrong: This consistently misguided argument against staying invested is looking dumber than ever. (Downtown Josh Brown)

• Tesla is the most unreliable used car brand in America, even behind Jeep and Chrysler: Older Teslas rank dead last in Consumer Reports study, but newer models show improvement (Techspot) see also Tesla’s Cybertruck is turning 2. It’s been a big flop. CEO Elon Musk once described the Cybertruck as Tesla’s ‘best ever’ product. But demand for the controversial pickup truck has dried up. (Marketwatch)

• Great Income Squeeze Begins as Fed Spells End to Easy Yields. The days of easy returns for income investors are vanishing as the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, dragging yields down from their post-pandemic highs. Conventional alternatives, such as corporate bonds and global equities, look richly priced, leaving less cushion and fewer obvious paths forward for income-focused portfolios. Investors are looking to alternative investments: high yield, emerging-market debt, and private credit. (Bloomberg free)

• Why It’s a Tough Time for House-Flippers: It seems like a pretty easy way to get rich quick. But for every success story, there are many tales of flips gone bad. (Wall Street Journal)

• How Japan Built a Rare-Earth Supply Chain Without China: The 15-year effort by Japan is a model for countries now scrambling to reduce their dependence on Beijing’s critical metals. (New York Times)

• New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich: Of the world’s 500 wealthiest people, 23 call New York City home, with a combined net worth of nearly $450 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, and many more come through town as often as time and their tax situations allow. Depleting this resource could devastate the city. (Businessweek)

• States Are Raking In Billions From Slot Machines on Your Phone: Online casinos have proved to be a much stronger source of tax revenue than sports betting apps. They may be coming to a state near you. (New York Times)

• What if Our Ancestors Didn’t Feel Anything Like We Do? The historians who want to know how our ancestors experienced love, anger, fear, and sorrow. (The Atlantic)

• Will AI make research on humans…less human? It’s been a long road to ensure that testing on human subjects is ethical. AI could send us backward. (Vox) see also Anthropic is all in on ‘AI safety’—and that’s helping the $183 billion startup win over big business: Founders Daniela and Dario Amodei have made Anthropic and its Claude models the AI many companies prefer over rivals OpenAI and ChatGPT. (Fortune)

• Robot smaller than grain of salt can ‘sense, think and act’ With solar cells and its own propulsion system, the device is a step toward sending robots into the human body. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephen Cohen, BlackRock Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions. He is a member of BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee. Previously, he was Global Head of Fixed Income Indexing (iShares); and Chief Investment Strategist for International Fixed Income and iShares. Blackrock manages $13.5 trillion in AUM; its iShares division is over $5 trillion.

 

House departures announced in the first 11 months of the session

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

These Are The US States With The Most Low-Wage Workers

Low-wage work remains widespread across the United States. Even as the labor market continues to expand, wage gains have been uneven, leaving millions of workers earning less than $20 per hour, which is roughly $41,600 annually before taxes for full-time work.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, ranks U.S. states by the share of low-wage workers earning less than $20 per hour, using data from the Economic Policy Institute as of July 2025.

Low-Wage Workforce by State

Nationally, three in 10 workers, or 45.2 million people, fall below the $20-per-hour mark. However, this distribution varies widely by state.

The table below shows the full ranking of states by the share and number of workers earning less than $20 per hour:

Texas tops the list in terms of the number of low-wage workers with nearly 5.1 million people below the $20-per-hour mark. California, the most populous state, follows with around 4 million workers, along with Florida (3.5 million) and New York (2.2 million).

Meanwhile, Mississippi leads in terms of the share of low-wage workers, with 52% of the state’s workers earning under $20 per hour. Other Southern states also rank high, including Louisiana (45%), Arkansas (43%), West Virginia (43%), and Kentucky (41%).

In contrast, the District of Columbia has the lowest share of low-wage workers at 11%, along with Washington (19%) and Massachusetts (18%). These states tend to have a larger share of workers employed in high-paying industries like professional services, health, and information (IT) as compared to states with more low-wage workers.

State Share of workers below $20/hr Number of workers below $20/hr Texas 38% 5,089,000 California 24% 4,002,000 Florida 38% 3,481,000 New York 26% 2,152,000 North Carolina 40% 1,828,000 Pennsylvania 30% 1,696,000 Georgia 37% 1,662,000 Illinois 29% 1,641,000 Ohio 32% 1,627,000 Michigan 33% 1,437,000 Indiana 36% 1,108,000 New Jersey 26% 1,052,000 Virginia 27% 1,033,000 Tennessee 34% 1,007,000 Missouri 37% 1,005,000 Arizona 31% 963,000 South Carolina 37% 824,000 Alabama 39% 821,000 Wisconsin 29% 808,000 Louisiana 45% 781,000 Kentucky 41% 739,000 Oklahoma 42% 735,000 Minnesota 25% 659,000 Washington 19% 639,000 Maryland 22% 630,000 Massachusetts 18% 605,000 Mississippi 52% 581,000 Colorado 21% 553,000 Iowa 37% 547,000 Arkansas 43% 541,000 Nevada 36% 511,000 Utah 33% 511,000 Kansas 35% 474,000 Oregon 23% 416,000 Connecticut 23% 380,000 New Mexico 41% 352,000 Idaho 36% 311,000 Nebraska 32% 298,000 West Virginia 43% 293,000 Hawaii 32% 181,000 Maine 29% 171,000 New Hampshire 24% 161,000 Montana 31% 144,000 South Dakota 32% 137,000 Delaware 30% 135,000 Rhode Island 26% 131,000 North Dakota 28% 103,000 Wyoming 38% 92,000 Vermont 23% 67,000 Alaska 20% 61,000 District of Columbia 11% 41,000 Minimum Wage in the U.S.

The U.S. federal minimum wage has remained at $7.25 per hour since 2009. Adjusted for inflation, that wage now has significantly less purchasing power, making it even lower in real terms.

While more than half of U.S. states have enacted higher local minimum wages, the federal standard still applies in states without their own wage laws, many of which appear at the top of the low-wage workforce rankings.

The Raise the Wage Act, which proposes lifting the federal minimum wage to $17 over five years, has been introduced repeatedly since 2017 but has yet to pass.

If you enjoyed today’s post, see this graphic on Average Salary by State in the U.S. on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 05:45

Nigeria's Christians Are Caught in A Tide Of Jihadi Violence

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times,

Nuhu Dauda was on a missionary trip, about 125 miles away from his home in Plateau state, Nigeria, when he got a panicked call from his younger brother.

“He said jihadists had surrounded my home and were chanting that they would kill everyone inside,” Dauda, a 67-year-old Christian evangelist, told The Epoch Times.

The police helped rescue five family members before heavily armed men burned the house to the ground and killed a young fellow evangelist, he said.

That was in 2005.

“In the 20 years since then I have seen our people massacred,” Dauda said. “I saw my family members, in-laws, and friends killed. I’ve carried the bodies of my own and I buried them.”

The plight of Christians in the country received relatively little global attention until the Trump administration threatened to intervene amid a recent spike in violence, to prevent mass killings it suggested amounts to “genocide.”

The Nigerian government denies claims of religious persecution, rather framing the violence as a security crisis with “complex socio-economic and political roots” that impacts people of all faiths.

But the increase in brutal attacks on Christian communities by radicalized insurgents in recent years both parallels and intersects a broader rise in violent Islamist extremism across the region.

Boko Haram and Surging Violence

Dauda grew up in peace with Muslim friends and neighbors in the country’s fertile Middle Belt region. But everything began to change around 2001.

“It was so strange to us, we never knew that, to see our people killed in a community where Muslims were a minority but well armed,” Dauda said of radicalized groups that began attacking Christians. “They drove us out.”

While the threat has evolved, some observers trace the root of current violence to the rise of Nigeria’s homegrown Sunni jihadist movement more than two decades ago. That movement is synonymous with the terrorist group Boko Haram, sometimes referred to as the “Nigerian Taliban.”

Ebenezer Obadare, a senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes all problems are downstream of Boko Haram.

“It’s a religious campaign in the sense that this is mass killing initiated by Boko Haram, a group that targets Christians, targets Muslims, targets everybody—because it sees all of them as infidels, or apostates,” Obadare told The Epoch Times.

Caskets holding the bodies of 38 Christian villagers killed by armed Fulani Muslim militants are arranged for a funeral Mass at Government Secondary School in Mallagun, Nigeria, on Sept. 30, 2021. Luka Binniyat/The Epoch Times

Boko Haram, which means, loosely, “Western education is forbidden,” has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States since 2013.

It embraces a strict interpretation of Islam that uses “extremely narrow criteria to define who counts as a Muslim,” according to a Brookings Institution report.

Formed in 2002, Boko Haram began an armed rebellion against the Nigerian government in 2009 and has retained a stronghold in the northeast, as well as in neighboring Chad, Cameroon, and Niger.

Since then, a mix of violent perpetrators with shifting alliances and feuds has emerged across the north, including the ISIS terror group, al-Qaeda, and Boko Haram offshoots and affiliates, as well as armed bandits, new cross-border groups and ethnic militias.

Nigeria ranks sixth on the Institute for Economics and Peace Global Terrorism Index 2025.

In the northwestern part of the country, where violence has historically been attributed to banditry, al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates have established a foothold since 2020, and “operationalized these cells since 2024,” according to a recent analysis by Critical Threats, a project of the thinktank American Enterprise Institute.

Reports of civilian killings in Nigeria vary, from 50,000 to more than 100,000 since 2009, with millions more displaced; figures from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a U.S.-based monitor, show violence targeting Christians has spiked since 2020 but still pales in comparison to the “broader surge in overall political violence,” which it reports has resulted in far more Muslim deaths.

In 2021 the United Nations estimated nearly 350,000 people had died as a result, directly or indirectly, of ongoing conflict in the country since 2009.

While estimates vary, Obadare said, “what nobody can doubt is that a lot of people are being killed—and more important is the fact that they’re being killed for a religious reason.”

U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters celebrate after fighting the ISIS terrorist group near the village of Baghouz, Syria, on March 15, 2019. The increase in brutal attacks on Christian communities by radicalized insurgents in recent years both parallels and intersects a broader rise in violent Islamist extremism worldwide and especially in West Africa. Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty Images

Brazen Attacks Escalate

President Donald Trump in October re-listed Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern,” a formal designation given to the world’s worst religious freedom offenders.

And in a Nov. 20 congressional hearing, State Department officials said they are working on a comprehensive plan to help bolster the country’s own security and counterterrorism efforts.

Just hours after that hearing, gunmen on Nov. 21 stormed a Catholic school in the Middle Belt, kidnapping more than 300 students and 12 teachers.

It was the fourth mass kidnapping that week, and one of the worst in the country’s history, surpassing even the 2014 Boko Haram kidnapping of 276 Chibok Secondary School girls. Last year Amnesty International reported more than 1,700 children have been abducted by the group in the decade since.

Kidnapping victims, according to the group, are often forced to fight, marry their captors, or are sold into sex slavery.

The wave of violence from Nov. 15 to Nov. 21 also included an attack on a Christian church during a service, in which two people were killed and 38 kidnapped; as well as the abduction of 24 female students from a secondary school, and the murder of three people and kidnapping of 64 from their homes.

(Top) A general view of a classroom at St. Mary's Catholic School in Papiri, Agwarra local government, Niger state, Nigeria, on Nov. 23, 2025. (Bottom L) A signboard for St Mary's Private Catholic Secondary School stands at the entrance of the school in Papiri, Agwarra local government, Niger state, Nigeria, on Nov. 23, 2025. (Bottom R) A general view of empty bunk beds and scattered belongings inside a student dormitory at St. Mary's Catholic School in Papiri, Agwarra local government, Niger state, Nigeria, on Nov. 23, 2025. Ifeanyi Immanuel Bakwenye/AFP via Getty Images

On Nov. 24, Nigerian media reported suspected Boko Haram terrorists abducted 12 women from Borno state and razed a village elsewhere in the state.

“We hoped the [Country of Particular Concern] designation by President Trump at the end of October might stabilize the situation,“ the Most Rev. Wilfred Anagbe, a Nigerian Catholic bishop, told lawmakers during the Nov. 20 hearing, ”but instead it is deteriorating into one of the most lethal periods for Nigerian Christians in recent memory.”

While the government has tried to confront the terror threat, Dauda said, “this is not the confrontational war that militaries are used to. They hide, attack, pull away, and cover. The government has tried, but they are overwhelmed.”

The Nigerian government did not respond to requests for comment from The Epoch Times, but recently said in a statement posted on X that its security agencies since 2023 have “neutralized” more than 13,500 terrorists, arrested more than 17,000 suspects, and rescued more than 9,800 kidnap victims.

Fulani Militias

In May, Amnesty International reported at least 10,217 people had been killed in attacks by gunmen in the two years since current president Bola Ahmed Tinubu was elected, mostly in the predominantly-Christian Middle Belt states of Benue and Plateau.

Such attacks have drawn attention to longstanding conflicts between farmers, who are largely Christian, and Fulani herdsmen, who are semi-nomadic and predominantly Muslim in the Middle Belt.

The Nigerian government characterizes this as a land-use dispute driven by the climate, resource scarcity, and population growth.

According to Open Doors, an organization that tracks persecution of Christians, Fulani militants are responsible for 55 percent of recorded Christian deaths between 2019 and 2023.

The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa in July published research showing Fulani militias accounted for 47 percent of the 36,056 civilian killings between 2019 and 2024—more than five times the combined death toll of other prominent terrorist organizations such as Boko Haram and an offshoot known as Islamic State-West Africa Province.

A group of armed Fulani militiamen pose for a picture at an informal demobilization camp in Sevare, Mali, on July 6, 2019. Open Doors, an organization that tracks persecution of Christians, reported that Fulani militants were responsible for 55 percent of recorded Christian deaths from 2019 to 2023. Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images

More recently, other monitors such as the International Bar Association’s Eyewitness Global have noted “considerable escalation” in violence with “religious and ethnic dimension” in the Middle Belt.

And while the 2015 Global Terrorism Index ranked armed Fulani militants the fourth-deadliest terror group in the world, the Observatory notes they have “mysteriously vanished” from international rankings despite having become “exponentially more lethal.”

Dauda, the Christian evangelist, says it’s a small number instigating and radicalizing an otherwise peaceful population. “Most Fulanis are innocent. Most want to live a peaceful life and take care of their cattle.”

Héni Nsaibia, ACLED’s West Africa senior analyst, told The Epoch Times the violence in the Middle Belt is “multidirectional” and can’t be reduced to a kind of religious war.

“To focus on the persecution of Christians really doesn’t capture the problem,” Nsaibia said. “That is not the main conflict—the real threat are the jihadi groups that are expanding and larger segments of the population are falling under their influence, and they are now competing with the state.”

Some of those groups, such as Islamic State-Sahel Province, are majority Fulani, he said, but operate primarily in majority-Muslim states, meaning their civilian victims are mostly Muslims.

As the conflict expanded across the region, Nsaibia said, the most powerful groups concentrated in Mali and Burkina Faso, where many fighters are Fulani. “So it’s more circumstantial, but also how the state has reacted to the insurgency.”

In many countries in the region, Fulani and other herder ethnicities have long been disenfranchised by the state, Nsaibia said, making them a prime target for radicalization.

‘Horrific Things’

Born a Fulani Muslim, Musa Belo converted to Christianity and became an evangelical preacher. Vocal on social media about what he calls a Christian genocide, he is currently in hiding, facing death threats from Islamists—and reprisal from the government, he says.

Belo told The Epoch Times that he typically visits many remote villages only accessible by motorcycle or on foot.

He described going to a village in Plateau state for outreach.

“We preached the gospel to them, we did medical outreach, shared Bibles, and we left. Then fast forward, this last October, we went back for a follow-up,” he said.

The whole village had been wiped out.

“You stumble on human skeletons, you stumble on a body that has not even decayed. … Horrific things,” Belo said.

Sean Nelson, an attorney with Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), recalls visiting victims in the aftermath of a Christmas Eve 2023 attack that killed more than 200 people across mostly Christian villages in the same region.

People pose for a photograph at St. Mary's Catholic Primary and Secondary School after armed men abducted children and staff in Papiri, Nigeria, on Nov. 21, 2025. Christian Association of Nigeria via AP

“They went after pastors’ homes. They went after churches first. The first village we went to, there was a pastor who, the militants came to his house on Christmas Eve, took him and his family, torched his house, walked him out behind the church and beheaded him.”

Every witness told him the attackers came in with machetes shouting “Allahu Akbar,” and “We will kill Christians,” Nelson said.

John Stewart, an American attorney and pastor who regularly travels to Africa to teach and train Christian leaders, described Nigerian communities devastated by systemic violence and displacement.

“I went to the relocation centers. These are Christians that have been driven out of their villages by Fulani Muslims, with the military looking the other way,” he told The Epoch Times.

“They’re sleeping on cement floors in churches. … They didn’t have anything other than shovels and rakes to defend themselves.”

‘Others Who Are Behind This’

Both Dauda and Belo say Fulanis are coming to Nigeria from other countries.

“I had an encounter with one, and I am Fulani by tribe,” Belo said. “When I spoke to him, I understood that this is not Nigerian Fulani. He told me he was from Mali, and his group was headed to Benue state.”

Nigeria’s borders with Niger and Chad are easy to penetrate, he said. “They are all using sophisticated weapons—machine guns, AK 49s, RPGs—that even our military are not using,” Belo said.

“This thing has been happening for two decades, but the Nigerian government has never brought a single perpetrator to justice,” Belo said.

Dauda marveled at the sight of Fulani herdsmen carrying machine guns.

“A Fulani man takes care of his cow—that is his bank account, the future of his children. How are such innocent Fulanis operating such guns?” he said.

“It means there are others who are behind this. And I want the world to know, they have been brainwashed,” he said. “Their target is to go across the nation—that’s why you hear of killings in churches in the south.”

Arms and ammunition recovered from Boko Haram jihadists are displayed at the 120th Battalion headquarters in Goniri, Nigeria, on July 3, 2019. Boko Haram, loosely translated as “Western education is forbidden,” has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States since 2013. Audu Marte/AFP via Getty Images

The Heart of Jihadi Terror

The Nigerian government has framed attacks on Christian communities such as Dauda’s in the country’s Middle Belt or north central region as ethnic land-use disputes, as distinct from the terror of jihadists in the northeast, or the anarchy of bandits in the northwest.

But amid transnational expansion of Islamist extremism, with weapons and fighters flowing across porous borders, some analysts say such distinctions are vanishingly relevant, and a distraction from the all-consuming threat of violent fundamentalism.

The Central Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa, which includes Nigeria and stretches from the North Atlantic to the Red Sea, has replaced the Middle East as the epicenter of global Salafi-jihadist violence, now accounting for 51 percent of all global terrorism deaths, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace “Global Terrorism Index 2025: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism” report.

Investigations by Conflict Armament Research, a British-based group that tracks illegal weapons, has suggested proliferation of weapons throughout the Sahel was precipitated by the 2011 fall of the heavily armed Moammar Gadhafi regime in Libya.

Data from ACLED shows jihadists groups have entered “a new phase of expansion” in the Sahel.

In a December report, the group notes that as jihadist groups solidify their operations, distinctions between regional conflicts are giving way to a broader, singular threat.

ACLED reports 79 percent of ISIS operations were in Africa in 2025—up from 49 percent in 2024. Islamic State-West Africa Province “controls broad swaths of territory and has killed or displaced thousands of people in Nigeria and neighboring countries,” according to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s Counter Terrorism Guide.

A defensive trench built to protect against incursions by Boko Haram surrounds the town of Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. Joris Bolomey/AFP via Getty Images

Collaboration among jihadist groups is growing, ACLED’s Nsaibia said. In some cases, Nigerian groups have been incorporated into broader global structures such as ISIS or al-Qaeda affiliates, or coordinate with regional groups across borders to share weapons, propaganda or fighters.

As the Sahel has become the global epicenter of jihadist militancy, he explains, Nigerian groups have been expanding from their historic base in the Lake Chad Basin, and into coastal West Africa. “As these groups are finding one another, they also form a sort of junction between these two very distinct conflict theaters.”

“We know for sure that all of these groups are united at least by one aim, which is they want to destroy the modern state as we know it,” Obadare said.

In neighboring Mali, jihadists are currently on the verge of overrunning the country, according to a report last month by the Soufan Center.

Sharia and Blasphemy

In the years following Nigeria’s 1999 transition to a constitutional democracy, 12 northern states have re-integrated Islamic criminal law. In theory, sharia applies only to Muslims, but in practice, human rights advocates argue, it is used to justify mob violence and state-sanctioned capital punishment.

“Death-penalty blasphemy law in the 12 Northern States is an outrageous thing,” ADF’s Nelson said. ADF intervenes on behalf of individuals facing blasphemy and apostasy charges in Nigeria’s sharia courts.

“It is one of only seven places in the world with a law like that,” he said.

In 2024, Amnesty International reported an escalation of mob violence across the country, including killings related to blasphemy accusations in which victims have been lynched, stoned, tortured, and burned alive.

“The apparent encouragement of killings for blasphemy by religious leaders creates an environment in which mobs feel entitled to take the law into their own hands. Meanwhile, government officials rarely publicly condemn mob violence for blasphemy,” the group reported.

Six men condemned for armed robbery stand before their execution by firing squad at Kirikiri Prison in Lagos, Nigeria, on Feb. 21, 1998. Since Nigeria’s 1999 return to civilian rule, 12 northern states have reintroduced Islamic criminal law, known as sharia, which human rights advocates say has been used to justify mob violence and state-sanctioned capital punishment. AFP via Getty Images

‘A Religious Element’

Obadare from the Council on Foreign Relations said the conversation about violence in Nigeria has become increasingly muddied; there used to be consensus, he says, that the threat was fundamentalism.

“The idea that Islamist insurgents should not be described or portrayed as what they are because you don’t want to offend mainstream Muslims … I find [this] condescending to mainstream Muslims,” Obadare said.

“The more Boko Haram says our aim is religious; we want to replace Nigeria with an Islamic state; we hate democracy; unbelief is the problem … the more people on the other side double down and say, ‘Nope, you don’t know what you’re talking about. It’s climate change, it’s got nothing to do with religion.'”

Despite the constant threat, Dauda said he wouldn’t think of living anywhere else.

“We are asking God to intervene,” he said. “That’s why we even have an opportunity to tell you about this.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 05:00

Visualizing The Complete History Of European Colonization

Europe’s colonial empires have shaped the world’s political and economic systems for over 500 years.

From Portugal’s early ventures in the 1400s, to Britain’s massive empire in the early 20th century, European nations have competed for control of territory and trade across nearly every continent.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu traces the history of European colonies from 1462 to today, showing how the era of colonies rose and fell.

The data for this visualization comes from Our World in Data. It tracks the number of overseas colonies under the control of key European powers including the UK, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, and others.

These numbers provide a historical record of how European influence expanded through exploration, conquest, and colonization, and later declined through wars, independence movements, and international pressure.

The Early Days of Colonization

Portugal was the first European nation to establish an overseas colony, beginning in the 1400s along the African coast and Atlantic islands. Spain followed soon after with its vast empire in the Americas.

An important milestone was the Treaty of Tordesillas (1494), which granted Spain and Portugal exclusive rights to explore, claim, and colonize along an agreed meridian. Backed by royal patronage and emerging maritime technology, Portugal built trading outposts from Brazil to the Indian Ocean, while Spain established vast territorial colonies across the Americas through conquest, settlement, and resource extraction.

By the early 1600s, Britain, France, and the Netherlands had joined the race, creating colonies in North America, the Caribbean, and Asia. This competition fueled centuries of maritime exploration and conflict, laying the groundwork for global trade and cultural exchange.

Unfortunately, colonization also brought about exploitation and displacement, characterized by the seizure of land and resources, forced labor, and the disruption of indigenous peoples.

Decolonization and the End of Empire

After World War II, global power shifted. European empires were financially drained and politically weakened, losing the capacity to control their vast overseas territories. Meanwhile, rising nationalist movements across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East pushed for independence.

A clear example is India’s independence from Britain in 1947, which became a catalyst for global decolonization. Britain was exhausted after World War II, and with growing independence movements led by Mahatma Gandhi, the British government was forced to concede sovereignty.

Between 1945 and the late 20th century, the number of European-controlled colonial territories declined dramatically, marking the end of formal empire building. Dozens of former colonies across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East gained independence during this period.

What remains today are a small number of overseas territories—such as islands and enclaves—administered by European states under special constitutional arrangements. These territories generally have significant local autonomy and are no longer considered colonies in the traditional sense, though debates over self-determination persist in some cases.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The State of Global Democracy on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 04:15

A Collapse In Germany's Chemical Sector Is A Bad Omen

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe,

Historically, the chemical industry has proven to be an excellent early indicator of severe economic downturns. Its present condition should serve as a warning: the climate-policy regime is at the beginning of its collapse. And Berlin’s fiscal bazooka—loaded with yet more debt—won’t change a thing.

Some readers will remember the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001. For five years, a relentless tech boom carried markets higher. The Nasdaq surged from one all-time high to the next in a frenzy that clouded the judgment of both institutional investors and retail traders. No one knew when the music would stop.

The Dot-Com Crash

But had investors aligned their behavior with developments in Germany’s chemical industry, they might have avoided the inevitable portfolio disaster. By mid-2000, chemical output in Germany had already fallen by six percent—a bad omen for the real economy, because chemicals are an early reflection of what is happening in the core industrial sectors: machinery, automotive, construction, and consumer goods.

Its deep integration into the value chains of the real economy makes the chemical industry a crystal ball with exceptional predictive sharpness.

And indeed, the following year the German economy drifted into recession. The U.S. economy weakened as well, immediately hurting German chemical exports. With the broader economy faltering, the stock-market dream evaporated. One pinprick, and everything collapsed. The blow struck directly at millions of small investors who paid their tuition for their first market “education” the hard way.

Markets are driven not only by sentiment but by productivity trends and money-supply dynamics. In the short run, they are expressions of liquidity conditions and mirror the credit cycle.

A Recession After Reunification

Let’s travel back another ten years—to late 1991, early 1992. The euphoria of German reunification had reached its preliminary economic peak. Government stimulus programs pumped credit into the construction sector, pushing money into inefficient, unnecessary infrastructure. An artificial post-reunification boom set in—only to be hit with its first major shock shortly thereafter.

At the turn of the year, Germany’s chemical industry slid into a sectoral recession and lost around seven percent of its real production volume over the next eighteen months. Once again, the chemical sector’s predictive power proved accurate: barely six months later, the overall economy followed it into recession.

Some 1.5 million people lost their jobs; GDP shrank 0.8 percent—and in 1994, markets slumped again.

Markets reacted to drastic tightening by the Federal Reserve, which attempted to rein in runaway inflation by squeezing liquidity. It marked the end of the business cycle—one that the chemical sector had correctly anticipated, once again, with lead time.

Recession or Structural Break?

After each downturn, Germany’s chemical sector reemerged more innovative and more export-competitive. It shed dysfunctional segments during recessions and then grew like a snake shedding its skin.

Both crises can also be read as monetary-policy phenomena. Centrally planned credit costs—set through interest-rate policy—created mild boom-bust cycles, a systemic flaw within an otherwise market-oriented system that could still absorb such central-bank interventions.

Which brings us to the present: Are we still following a classic business cycle—or have we already witnessed a structural break? The facts are clear. Since 2018, it is not only the chemical sector that has been collapsing. The entire foundation of industrial production appears to have cracked. Across all sectors, output is roughly 20 percent below 2018 levels.

Nothing in the current environment suggests this will change. No amount of artificial government credit can fill the gaping void in Germany’s industrial base—not through weapons contracts, not through subsidized green-sector patronage.

Green Tribute

Germany has entered an era of deindustrialization due to catastrophic political decisions. The numbers are unambiguous, even if corporate leaders such as BASF CEO Markus Kamieth refuse to say it openly—dependency on the state’s subsidy machinery trumps any notion of responsibility inside today’s corporate bureaucracy.

In Berlin, Brussels, Paris, and London, a corporatist mindset has taken hold. Political elites became intoxicated by the subsidy bonanza surrounding the Green Deal—an entire hallucinated green transformation built on CO₂ narratives and dumped onto taxpayers.

The continued decline of the chemical sector shows that industrial production in Germany is no longer viable under current conditions. Central-planning energy-market design generates costs that drive companies out of the country. Germany lost €64.5 billion in direct investment last year alone; this year, the figure will likely exceed €100 billion.

German society is impoverishing in fast-forward because its political class refuses to understand that industrial production is the true source of societal wealth—and because it remains convinced that a centrally planned artificial economy can replace productive enterprise.

Everything that depends on industry—complex value chains, services, suppliers, high-income jobs, even the bloated state budget—lives off the innovative strength and productive capacity of a free industrial sector.

Political Camouflage

If Germany’s green “degrowth chancellor” Friedrich Merz and his entourage now make cautious adjustments to the climate-socialist regime—floating a new EV subsidy, tying industrial electricity prices to “eco-investments”—this is nothing more than political camouflage. Policymakers are fighting desperately to preserve the green course. Merz is essentially an “autopen” of the Merkel-Scholz era—a green central planner in borrowed conservative clothes whose flock is abandoning him.

We are witnessing nothing less than a civilizational rupture—and the rise of a climate-socialist regime already lying in economic ruins before its architects could even reap an illusionary harvest.

The political response to rising criticism has been predictable and pathetic: repression, censorship, and intimidation—an admission of failure in the assault on personal liberty.

Markets should brace for high volatility, because Berlin and Brussels are tying their political survival to massive new debt issuance and an accelerating nationalization of the credit process.

The ongoing collapse of the chemical sector signals a political crisis—one that will not end until this new socialist experiment has completely failed. Until then, the German people will have to navigate an accelerating spiral of impoverishment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 03:30

Cocaine: Local Cultivation, Global Consumption

Although cocaine is consumed in every part of the world, its base, the coca plant, is mainly cultivated in three Latin American countries: Peru, Bolivia and Colombia.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, according to figures by UNODC, Colombia was responsible for almost two thirds of the total coca cultivation area in 2023 at 253,000 hectares.

Peru came in second with 93,000 hectares, while Bolivia ranked third with 31,000 hectares.

You will find more infographics at Statista

When looking at the cocaine market from the users' perspective, North America had the largest estimated share of people reporting having consumed cocaine in 2023, with 6.5 million or 26 percent of total global users of the drug.

Overall, the Americas made up just under half of estimated cocaine users worldwide according to the UNODC data, while in Europe and Asia, the estimated number of cocaine users stood at 6 million and 3.4 million, respectively.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 02:45

Why Is Europe Feverishly Preparing For World War III?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

If there is going to be peace, why are we witnessing the largest military buildup in Europe since the end of the Cold War?  When it comes to the major players on the geopolitical stage, it is far more important to watch what they do than it is to listen to what they say.  And right now the actions that the major European powers are taking are telling us that they are preparing for a huge war with Russia.

Ukraine was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle for the European Union.

It is an enormous chunk of territory, and it is absolutely teeming with natural resources.

For most European leaders, it is unthinkable that Ukraine could be allowed to fall back into Russian hands, but at the moment more Ukrainian territory is being taken by the Russians with each passing day.

In fact, it is being reported that the city of Seversk has just fallen…

Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said that the “Southern” group of troops had taken control of the city of Seversk in the DPR.

“The city of Seversk has been liberated,” Gerasimov said during a report to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Every time the Russians move forward, European leaders feel even more pressure to send troops into Ukraine.

Apparently the British already have at least some soldiers in Ukraine, because one of them just died…

The British soldier who died in Ukraine on Tuesday has been named as L/Cpl George Hooley, 28, of the Parachute regiment.

Keir Starmer told the Commons on Wednesday that Hooley had died in a “tragic accident” away from the frontlines while watching a test of “a new defensive capability” with members of the Ukrainian military.

“His life was full of courage and determination,” Starmer said. “He served our country with honour and distinction around the world in the cause of freedom and democracy, including as part of the small number of British personnel in Ukraine.”

Did you notice that Starmer was purposely vague about how many British troops are in Ukraine?

Is it 100?

Is it 1,000?

Is it 10,000?

We would like to know.

Meanwhile, we are being told that plans are in the works to significantly expand the size of the French army…

France will this week become the latest EU country to set out plans to expand its army, with Emmanuel Macron expected to announce on Thursday that military service will be restored – albeit on a voluntary basis – nearly 30 years after the end of conscription.

In the face of Russia’s military threat and uncertainty over the US’s commitment to defending its transatlantic allies, Europe is rushing to bolster its defence industry and its deployment capability after radically cutting them back since the cold war.

Why would the French need a much larger army if a peace deal is going to be negotiated with the Russians?

And why have French hospitals been instructed to prepare for tens of thousands of casualties?…

French hospitals have been told to prepare a potential armed conflict in Europe by next year, local media reported.

In a letter sent to regional health agencies, revealed by Le Canard Enchaîné , the Ministry of Health asked hospitals to prepare for a “major (military) engagement” by March 2026.

The newspaper warned that between 10,000 and 50,000 men could be expected in hospitals over a period of 10 to 180 days.

Something doesn’t add up.

We are being told one thing, but plans are being made for something else to happen instead.

Other European nations are also making plans for large scale military conflict…

Denmark’s conscription system was extended to women and lengthened to 11 months from four in June. Estonia has universal male conscription, while Latvia and Lithuania, like Denmark, select conscripts by lottery if there are not enough volunteers.

Elsewhere, Croatia, which abolished mandatory military service 17 years ago, recently restored conscription, while Poland is working on a plan to prepare large-scale military training for every adult male in an effort to double the size of its army.

Is it just a coincidence that all of these countries are suddenly makes these moves in unison?

In Germany, military spending is about to go soaring into uncharted territory…

At a moment the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on, and as Trump-led efforts to find peace have been frustrated – largely as Zelensky and his backers have balked at agreeing to any territorial compromise as the bases of a deal – Germany is busy transforming its military with an aim to boost Bundeswehr numbers and meet NATO targets.

That news dominated headlines last week, but added to this Bloombergis newly reporting Tuesday that the troop expansion will coincide with a major tech and armament expansion, given lawmakers are expected to approve a record €52 billion (about $61 billion) in military procurement contracts next week.

This will mark the largest single-year investment in defense equipment in the country’s history, underscoring Berlin’s renewed push to modernize its armed forces amid the growing European standoff with Russia.

As for 2025 numbers, prior approvals brought total defense commitments for this year to above €33 billion. So next year’s could more than double, based on the new projected figures.

If there is going to be peace with Russia, this level of military spending makes no sense at all.

But if there is going to be war with Russia, this level of military spending is easily explained.

On Thursday, NATO Chief Mark Rutte ominously warned that “we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured”…

NATO Chief Mark Rutte urged member countries to do more to prepare for the possibility of large-scale war, warning that Russia may be ready to attack the alliance within five years.

“We are Russia’s next target. And we are already in harm’s way,” Rutte said on Thursday during a speech in Berlin. “Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured.”

Although he welcomed the decision by NATO members to increase overall military spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product annually by 2035, Rutte argued more needed to be done, saying alliance members must shift to a “wartime mindset.”

What wars did our grandparents and our great-grandparents endure?

Obviously he was referring to World War I and World War II.

In other words, he was telling us that we need to get ready for World War III.

But the Russians have told us over and over again that they have no intention of going to war with Europe.  In fact, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used those exact words earlier this week.  But he did warn that there are a couple of red lines that will force the Russians to respond if they are crossed…

“As the President [Putin] emphasised, we have no intention of going to war with Europe,” said Lavrov.

“We have no such intention.

“But we will respond to any hostile steps, including the deployment of European military contingents in Ukraine and the expropriation of Russian assets.”

Sending large numbers of European troops into Ukraine would be a really foolish thing to do, because the Russians would begin shooting at them.

And once that starts happening, we will be perilously close to nuclear conflict.

This is something that they talk about on Russian television all the time.  Commenting on the confirmed death of a British soldier in Ukraine, one of the most prominent voices on Russian television boldly declared that “a nuclear strike on Britain is inevitable”…

Leading Kremlin propagandist hawk, Vladimir Solovyov, told viewers on his nightly show: “Now a nuclear strike on Britain is inevitable….” Historian Andrey Sidorov, another Putin cheerleader, said: “This incident should be considered a casus belli, when the British Ministry of Defence officially acknowledged the death of its military personnel on active duty on Ukrainian territory.” He demanded the Russian foreign ministry summon British ambassador Nigel Casey or a chargé d’affaires “to explain what an active-duty military officer was doing there”.

That is crazy talk.

But this is how they actually see the world.

We should be trying to avoid a worst case scenario while we still can.

The expropriation of Russian assets is another red line for the Russians, and it appears that the Europeans are determined to cross it as well…

Currently EU member states are rapidly advancing a plan to permanently freeze as much as €210 billion ($244.38 billion) in Russian state assets to finance Ukraine for at least the next two years. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is seeking to use a loophole to rush this through, based on invoking emergency powers to sanction the frozen assets on a permanent basis, instead of holding the funds based on current six-month renewals, which requires unanimous agreement from all member states.

The plan would see €90 billion (roughly $104.71 billion) released over the next two years. Von der Leyen’s scheme would allow for the plan to pass merely with a qualified majority, and so couldn’t be derailed by just a lone veto. Nations like Germany and Spain have already signaled their support.

This is a really bad idea.

But the Europeans are apparently going to do it anyway.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to provoke the Russians by messing with their closest ally in South America.

Yesterday, I posted an article about the oil tanker that the U.S. just seized as it was approaching Venezuela.

On Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wanted an explanation…

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday demanded that the Trump administration explain why a Venezuelan oil tanker was seized by U.S. forces.

“I really hope that the United States, although they consider themselves entitled to conduct such operations, will somehow explain, out of respect for other members of the world community, what facts led them to take such actions,” he said during an ambassadors’ roundtable on the Ukrainian crisis resolution.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin made it a point to publicly demonstrate his support for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro…

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by phone on Thursday to reassure him of Moscow’s support for his government, shortly after the United States seized a large oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast.

Maduro has been under increasing pressure from President Donald Trump’s administration to leave office, with the U.S. conducting increasingly large military build-up in the Caribbean. Tensions escalated on Wednesday when the U.S. seized the tanker, sparking furious outcry from Venezuela.

The Kremlin said that Putin and Maduro had discussed a strategic partnership agreement and working together on several joint projects related to the economy and energy sector.

A regime change operation in Venezuela would do severe damage to our relationship with the Russians.

But officials in Washington don’t seem to care.

In fact, the White House has announced that the U.S. may soon seize even more oil tankers…

President Donald Trump is willing to seize more oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, a White House official told CNBC on Thursday.

The U.S. seized a tanker on Wednesday that had allegedly transported oil from Venezuela to Iran. The action comes as Trump escalates pressure on President Nicolás Maduro.

I feel like I am watching a slow-motion train wreck that I am unable to stop.

I have been writing about these wars for so long, and now they are unfolding right in front of our eyes.

Personally, I have no idea why so many prominent voices out there are cheering for war.

War is not a game.

And that is especially true when nuclear weapons are involved.

The fate of billions of people is hanging in the balance, and we must step back from the brink before it is too late.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 02:00

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump was onto something when he replaced Joe Biden’s White House portrait with a mocking picture of an autopen. Given our recent history of failed leadership, why stop there?

To truly capture the impact of this century’s presidents, let’s replace George W. Bush’s photo with a picture of a small hole and a shovel. Instead of Barack Obama’s dazzling smile, how about a deeper hole with a longer shovel? And maybe an earth mover before a crater in Donald Trump’s first term. Maybe stick with Biden’s autopen as a tip of the cap to a great idea, although a shot of the Grand Canyon would fit as well. As for Trump’s second term, if things keep going in the same direction, the art department might start working on a drawing of Alfred E. Neumann with his famous tagline, “What, Me Worry”?

If this sounds harsh, consider the fiscal abyss these men have plunged us into. Since George W. Bush’s presidency, the national debt has been widely acknowledged as one of our nation’s chief challenges. In 2000, it was equal to 55% of our GDP; it now stands at 121%. The oxymoronically named Government Accountability Office projects that percentage will double by 2053.

It costs about $1 trillion per year just to service our $38.5 trillion debt, which is still growing at close to $2 trillion per year.

Presidents can’t do this alone. Congress passes the budgets, and the American people just go along with the charade. Everybody wants what they want; nobody is willing to sacrifice. The modern welfare state launched by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, supercharged by Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society – and expanded by every president and Congress since the 1960s – has become a massive system of transfer payments that now sends some 72.5 million Americans government assistance.

Even if we cut our leaders some slack for making entitlement reform the Godot of modern politics, their intentional unwillingness to even pluck the low-hanging fruit of obvious fraud and abuse is impossible to defend.

When the ongoing investigation of massive fraud in Minnesota became big news in recent weeks, President Trump did not take the opportunity to focus the nation’s attention on the huge amount of federal dollars being swiped by con artists and grifters. Instead of calling for a top-to-bottom review of expensive programs, he cast the fraud as an immigration issue – falsely suggesting that all would be well if we hadn’t admitted so many Somali immigrants.

The truth is, most everybody has their snout in the trough.

Right now, Congress is debating the future of enhanced Obamacare subsidies passed in 2021: Democrats want to extend them, Republicans want to spend some of the money in other ways. What no one is addressing in any serious way is the strong evidence of massive fraud in the program. Earlier this year, RealClearInvestigations reported on a study that found that an estimated 12 million enrollees had not filed a single claim in 2024 – suggesting that brokers and insurance companies may be adding phantom patients to juice profits. In a separate effort, the GAO reports that it has tested Obamacare’s verification system by submitting 24 fictional applications during the last two years – almost all of them were approved for expensive benefits. Reason magazine reported that the GAO auditors also “found more than 66,000 Social Security numbers attached to records showing more than 366 days of health insurance coverage – an indicator that those Social Security numbers may have been used multiple times in the same year. Additionally, GAO found more than 58,000 Social Security numbers matching death records in the Social Security Administration’s database. More than $94 million in tax credits were delivered to those accounts.”

Meanwhile, a series of reports in the Washington Post suggests rampant fraud in benefits paid to veterans. Where a 100% disability rating used to be a relatively rare status given to those who suffered truly debilitating and disfiguring injuries, today 1.5 million of the roughly 6 million veterans receiving disability payments have that classification – “a nearly ninefold increase since 2021.” Part of this increase, the Post reports, is driven by a growing industry, “steeped in hucksterism and fraud,” that recruits and coaches “to pile on benefits,” through what appears to be a rubber-stamp government review system.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal series has documented rampant fraud in Medicaid and Medicare. One article reportedthat health insurers “collected at least $4.3 billion over three years for [hundreds of thousands of] patients who were enrolled – and paid for – in other states.” Another article reported that “Medicare Advantage insurers diagnosed patients with conditions that triggered extra payments of $50 billion from 2019 to 2021, even though no doctor ever treated the diseases.”

Despite its crushing costs, America’s vast welfare state is not going away. Although it is more likely that fiscal catastrophe rather than courageous leadership will one day ignite necessary reforms, in the meantime we might soften that day of reckoning by addressing the bad actors sucking us dry.

Some advice to our future leaders: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 23:20

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump was onto something when he replaced Joe Biden’s White House portrait with a mocking picture of an autopen. Given our recent history of failed leadership, why stop there?

To truly capture the impact of this century’s presidents, let’s replace George W. Bush’s photo with a picture of a small hole and a shovel. Instead of Barack Obama’s dazzling smile, how about a deeper hole with a longer shovel? And maybe an earth mover before a crater in Donald Trump’s first term. Maybe stick with Biden’s autopen as a tip of the cap to a great idea, although a shot of the Grand Canyon would fit as well. As for Trump’s second term, if things keep going in the same direction, the art department might start working on a drawing of Alfred E. Neumann with his famous tagline, “What, Me Worry”?

If this sounds harsh, consider the fiscal abyss these men have plunged us into. Since George W. Bush’s presidency, the national debt has been widely acknowledged as one of our nation’s chief challenges. In 2000, it was equal to 55% of our GDP; it now stands at 121%. The oxymoronically named Government Accountability Office projects that percentage will double by 2053.

It costs about $1 trillion per year just to service our $38.5 trillion debt, which is still growing at close to $2 trillion per year.

Presidents can’t do this alone. Congress passes the budgets, and the American people just go along with the charade. Everybody wants what they want; nobody is willing to sacrifice. The modern welfare state launched by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, supercharged by Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society – and expanded by every president and Congress since the 1960s – has become a massive system of transfer payments that now sends some 72.5 million Americans government assistance.

Even if we cut our leaders some slack for making entitlement reform the Godot of modern politics, their intentional unwillingness to even pluck the low-hanging fruit of obvious fraud and abuse is impossible to defend.

When the ongoing investigation of massive fraud in Minnesota became big news in recent weeks, President Trump did not take the opportunity to focus the nation’s attention on the huge amount of federal dollars being swiped by con artists and grifters. Instead of calling for a top-to-bottom review of expensive programs, he cast the fraud as an immigration issue – falsely suggesting that all would be well if we hadn’t admitted so many Somali immigrants.

The truth is, most everybody has their snout in the trough.

Right now, Congress is debating the future of enhanced Obamacare subsidies passed in 2021: Democrats want to extend them, Republicans want to spend some of the money in other ways. What no one is addressing in any serious way is the strong evidence of massive fraud in the program. Earlier this year, RealClearInvestigations reported on a study that found that an estimated 12 million enrollees had not filed a single claim in 2024 – suggesting that brokers and insurance companies may be adding phantom patients to juice profits. In a separate effort, the GAO reports that it has tested Obamacare’s verification system by submitting 24 fictional applications during the last two years – almost all of them were approved for expensive benefits. Reason magazine reported that the GAO auditors also “found more than 66,000 Social Security numbers attached to records showing more than 366 days of health insurance coverage – an indicator that those Social Security numbers may have been used multiple times in the same year. Additionally, GAO found more than 58,000 Social Security numbers matching death records in the Social Security Administration’s database. More than $94 million in tax credits were delivered to those accounts.”

Meanwhile, a series of reports in the Washington Post suggests rampant fraud in benefits paid to veterans. Where a 100% disability rating used to be a relatively rare status given to those who suffered truly debilitating and disfiguring injuries, today 1.5 million of the roughly 6 million veterans receiving disability payments have that classification – “a nearly ninefold increase since 2021.” Part of this increase, the Post reports, is driven by a growing industry, “steeped in hucksterism and fraud,” that recruits and coaches “to pile on benefits,” through what appears to be a rubber-stamp government review system.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal series has documented rampant fraud in Medicaid and Medicare. One article reportedthat health insurers “collected at least $4.3 billion over three years for [hundreds of thousands of] patients who were enrolled – and paid for – in other states.” Another article reported that “Medicare Advantage insurers diagnosed patients with conditions that triggered extra payments of $50 billion from 2019 to 2021, even though no doctor ever treated the diseases.”

Despite its crushing costs, America’s vast welfare state is not going away. Although it is more likely that fiscal catastrophe rather than courageous leadership will one day ignite necessary reforms, in the meantime we might soften that day of reckoning by addressing the bad actors sucking us dry.

Some advice to our future leaders: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 23:20

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

The National Trust for Historic Preservation filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump and federal agencies on Dec. 12 over the ballroom construction project at the White House.

Construction on the project, which involves demolishing part of the executive mansion and building a 90,000-square-foot ballroom, began in September.

The project is expected to cost about $300 million, all of which is expected to be funded by private donors, including Trump.

The Trump administration released a list of the private donors in October.

The legal complaint, filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks a declaration that the ongoing project violates several federal statutes.

The National Trust is also asking for an injunction to halt work on the project “until the necessary federal commissions have reviewed and approved the project’s plans; adequate environmental review has been conducted; and Congress has authorized the Ballroom’s construction,” according to the complaint.

The National Trust describes itself in the complaint as a private, charitable, educational nonprofit corporation that Congress chartered in 1949. Its purpose is “to further the historic preservation policy of the United States and to promote the public’s awareness of and ability to comment on any activity that might damage or destroy our nation’s architectural heritage.” The trust has filed preservation lawsuits against several presidential administrations, the complaint said.

As Matthew Vadum details below via The Epoch Times, the lawsuit lists several federal agencies and those who head them as defendants.

The defendants are: the National Park Service, and its acting director, Jessica Bowron; John Stanwich, superintendent of the White House and President’s Park; Department of the Interior, and its secretary, Douglas Burnum; General Services Administration, and its acting administrator, Michael Rigas; and Trump.

The complaint said the demolition of the East Wing of the White House to make room for the ballroom facility began in late October without congressional approval or approval from federal commissions responsible for development oversight in the nation’s capital.

The federal government did not carry out required environmental studies, nor did it give the public an opportunity for comment, the complaint said.

“Within days, the East Wing and its colonnade—a version of which was first built on the site during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson—were completely destroyed.” Last week a large construction crane was erected on White House grounds and Trump has said that work on the project was “audible all night,” the complaint said.

“No president is legally allowed to tear down portions of the White House without any review whatsoever—not President Trump, not President Biden, and not anyone else. And no president is legally allowed to construct a ballroom on public property without giving the public the opportunity to weigh in.”

The Trump administration has maintained the ballroom project is lawful.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle said that “President Trump has full legal authority to modernize, renovate, and beautify the White House—just like all of his predecessors did.”

On its website on Oct. 21, the White House listed structural changes that 13 presidents, including Trump, have made to the White House grounds since 1902.

The complaint said it is not unusual even for minor structures planned for the White House grounds to be subjected to extensive review. For example, in 2016, the National Park Service submitted plans to the National Capital Planning Commission for a new perimeter fence around the White House. During Trump’s first term in 2019, the National Park Service filed plans with the commission about a proposal to replace a small building on the grounds with a new tennis pavilion.

The ballroom project violates several federal statutes, including the Administrative Procedure Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, the complaint argues.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated” in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.

The National Environmental Policy Act regulates federal agencies’ assessments of the potential environmental impacts of projects. The statute requires federal agencies to look at the “reasonably foreseeable” impact of major decisions.

The complaint also alleges that the ballroom project violates the separation of powers and the U.S. Constitution’s property clause, which gives Congress authority over federal property.

The separation of powers is a constitutional doctrine that divides the government into three branches to prevent any single branch from accumulating too much power.

The property clause reads in part: “The Congress shall have Power to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States.”

The Department of Justice, which represents federal officials in court, did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:45

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

The National Trust for Historic Preservation filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump and federal agencies on Dec. 12 over the ballroom construction project at the White House.

Construction on the project, which involves demolishing part of the executive mansion and building a 90,000-square-foot ballroom, began in September.

The project is expected to cost about $300 million, all of which is expected to be funded by private donors, including Trump.

The Trump administration released a list of the private donors in October.

The legal complaint, filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks a declaration that the ongoing project violates several federal statutes.

The National Trust is also asking for an injunction to halt work on the project “until the necessary federal commissions have reviewed and approved the project’s plans; adequate environmental review has been conducted; and Congress has authorized the Ballroom’s construction,” according to the complaint.

The National Trust describes itself in the complaint as a private, charitable, educational nonprofit corporation that Congress chartered in 1949. Its purpose is “to further the historic preservation policy of the United States and to promote the public’s awareness of and ability to comment on any activity that might damage or destroy our nation’s architectural heritage.” The trust has filed preservation lawsuits against several presidential administrations, the complaint said.

As Matthew Vadum details below via The Epoch Times, the lawsuit lists several federal agencies and those who head them as defendants.

The defendants are: the National Park Service, and its acting director, Jessica Bowron; John Stanwich, superintendent of the White House and President’s Park; Department of the Interior, and its secretary, Douglas Burnum; General Services Administration, and its acting administrator, Michael Rigas; and Trump.

The complaint said the demolition of the East Wing of the White House to make room for the ballroom facility began in late October without congressional approval or approval from federal commissions responsible for development oversight in the nation’s capital.

The federal government did not carry out required environmental studies, nor did it give the public an opportunity for comment, the complaint said.

“Within days, the East Wing and its colonnade—a version of which was first built on the site during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson—were completely destroyed.” Last week a large construction crane was erected on White House grounds and Trump has said that work on the project was “audible all night,” the complaint said.

“No president is legally allowed to tear down portions of the White House without any review whatsoever—not President Trump, not President Biden, and not anyone else. And no president is legally allowed to construct a ballroom on public property without giving the public the opportunity to weigh in.”

The Trump administration has maintained the ballroom project is lawful.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle said that “President Trump has full legal authority to modernize, renovate, and beautify the White House—just like all of his predecessors did.”

On its website on Oct. 21, the White House listed structural changes that 13 presidents, including Trump, have made to the White House grounds since 1902.

The complaint said it is not unusual even for minor structures planned for the White House grounds to be subjected to extensive review. For example, in 2016, the National Park Service submitted plans to the National Capital Planning Commission for a new perimeter fence around the White House. During Trump’s first term in 2019, the National Park Service filed plans with the commission about a proposal to replace a small building on the grounds with a new tennis pavilion.

The ballroom project violates several federal statutes, including the Administrative Procedure Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, the complaint argues.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated” in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.

The National Environmental Policy Act regulates federal agencies’ assessments of the potential environmental impacts of projects. The statute requires federal agencies to look at the “reasonably foreseeable” impact of major decisions.

The complaint also alleges that the ballroom project violates the separation of powers and the U.S. Constitution’s property clause, which gives Congress authority over federal property.

The separation of powers is a constitutional doctrine that divides the government into three branches to prevent any single branch from accumulating too much power.

The property clause reads in part: “The Congress shall have Power to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States.”

The Department of Justice, which represents federal officials in court, did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:45

A New Republican Vision For Health Care

Authored by Monique Yohanan via RealClearHealth,

The shutdown dispute offered a clear view into a problem that has shaped federal health policy for more than a decade. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) directs subsidies to insurance companies rather than to individual Americans. Democrats portrayed their position as a defense of middle-class families, but the system of subsidies they have created primarily protects and enhances insurance company profits.

The current ACA framework needs amendment to make structural reform possible. Republicans should state clearly what they are for: real choices for quality medical care that is affordable, secure, transparent, and accessible. There are three systemic reforms that can get us there.

The first reform is this: Americans should have a medical wallet on their phones.  Instead of subsidies going to insurance companies, money would go into a medical wallet the patient owns and can directly control. It would resemble a Health Savings Account, but unlike current law, it wouldn’t be restricted to just those with high-deductible insurance plans. Families could use a medical wallet for routine needs or save for later expenses. Ownership changes behavior. People compare prices, judge value, and choose services based on their own priorities. None of this is possible when the subsidies bypass individuals and go directly to insurance companies.

The second reform Republicans should champion is portable coverage. Insurance should be centered around the individual, not the employer or the state. It is about freedom and security. Right now patients have neither. Americans want the freedom to make a fresh start, whether that’s a new job or a move to a new state. To do that, they need the security of stable insurance.

The ACA in its current form has made purchasing private insurance out of reach. Too often workers are stuck in jobs they would otherwise leave because losing employee-provided insurance is simply too risky and expensive. Insurance company subsidies have led to yearly rate hikes for everyone exacerbating the problem. The 9% of the population on ACA plans have been insulated from these price jumps, but the rest of the country has felt the full burden of these increases.

The third reform is essential to the first two (and to any truly functional healthcare system): full and real price transparency. In the 15 years after the ACA became law, people still do not know the exact cost of services before they receive them. Consumers should be able to shop for most medical care, but this currently is impossible. Real prices aren’t available up front, let alone whether those prices reflect high quality, high value care. While the ACA included language to improve price transparency, enforcement has at best been inconsistent. Clear prices are particularly important when consumers control their own dollars and have coverage that lets them act on that information. The Marshall-Hickenlooper bill accomplishes this, and must be a priority for passage.

Republicans have an opportunity to reframe the discussion. Right now the system benefits insurance companies and the middlemen who serve them. It’s time for a reset that puts Americans first. This can happen if we give taxpayers control over dollars intended for their care, offer them insurance that stays with them when their circumstances change, and let them know what they are paying before they receive a bill. These are practical expectations consistent with how every other sector of the economy functions.

Medical Wallet. Portable Coverage. Real Prices Up Front. These principles offer a direct and comprehensible alternative. They shift the debate away from defending a legacy architecture that has only one clear beneficiary - insurance companies - and towards a system that can make coverage affordable for everyone. The shutdown made the choice clear. Policymakers can continue to protect insurer subsidies or they can build a structure that gives people control. They cannot do both.

Monique Yohanan, MD, MPH, is a Senior Fellow for Health Policy at Independent Women.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:10