From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

ortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 19, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 110 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Overall mortgage application volume fell last week, despite the slight decline in mortgage rates,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “MBA expects the trends of a softening job market, sticky inflation, elevated home inventories, and steady mortgage rates will persist into the new year.”

Added Fratantoni, “Purchase application volume last week was 16 percent higher than a year earlier. We are forecasting continued, modest growth in terms of home sales in 2026.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.31 percent from 6.38 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 16% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

My “Its Christmas Eve already?” early morning reads:

• Prediction Markets Will Make the Stock Market Obsolete. Yes or No? As prediction markets surge, Wall Street is grappling with an uncomfortable question: Is there any distinction left between investing and gambling? (Barron’s)

• Inside the Invitation-Only Stock Market for the Wealthy: The buzziest private companies are being sold to a select few as the universe of stocks everyone else can invest in shrinks rapidly. (Wall Street Journal) but see also Once Wall Street’s High Flyer, Private Equity Loses Its Luster: As funds deliver mediocre returns and sheds investors, the industry is struggling to unload 31,000 investments, an increase over this time last year. (New York Times)

• Inside America’s Costco economy: A retailer once built around broad middle-class value is now powered overwhelmingly by its most affluent, most loyal, most economically insulated members. (Quartz)

• Rivian unveils ambitious plan to take on autonomous driving: The EV maker, known for its electric trucks and SUVs, is racing to catch up to rivals with help from AI. (Washington Post)

• Mortgage Rates Are Falling but Owners Still Won’t Sell: Nearly 30 million households, or 54% of primary mortgage-holders, have mortgage rates at or below 4%. (Wall Street Journal)

• Who Finishes First in Life? Often, Late Bloomers (or the advantage of being a generalist): A new study suggests that the people who reach the pinnacle of their fields typically dabbled in multiple disciplines when they were young. (New York Times)

• A 6-year research project found a surprisingly simple route to happiness: Results of a study out of Cornell suggest a happiness hack that can lead you toward a life of purpose. (Washington Post)

• The real reason this polarizing food made its sweet San Francisco comeback: How the Bay Area helped make them cool. (SF Gate)

• More Than 50 U.S. Lawmakers Are Retiring Next Year. Why? Plus, Charlie Kirk supporters get behind JD Vance in the 2028 presidential race, and CBS News pulls a ‘60 Minutes’ segment. (Wall Street Journal)

• The 10 Best Movies of 2025: The standout films that helped cinema survive another turbulent year (The Atlantic) see also The Best Albums of 2025: This year’s most interesting artists invented their own grammar and tunneled in idiosyncratic directions. (The Atlantic)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this past weekend with Patient Capital‘s Samantha McLemore, Live from the Phillips Collection in Washington, DC. Previously, she co-ran the Miller Opportunity Trust with famed investor Bill Miller.

 

Residential moves enterting or leaving each state

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Christmas Eve Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

South African Men 'Scammed' Into Fighting For Russia Become Trench Diggers

European security authorities have recently been loudly warning of Russian military or intelligence recruitment scams targeting unsuspecting citizens of the EU, by offering promises of jobs or money transfers, during which time the individuals are said to be 'recruited' by Moscow. This is apparently happening on the African continent as well, with a new Reuters investigation documenting that South Africans are being lured into the Russian armed forces under false pretenses.

People are allegedly promised high-level jobs and elite training in Russia, only to find out they've unwittingly joined the Russian military, and eventually find themselves fighting in Ukraine soon after documents are hastily signed. In these cases the implication is that these South African individuals are in desperate financial straits. 

Reuters details the story of South African father-of-three Dubandlela, who was initially thrilled when his 20-year-old son signed up last summer to receive specialized training as a VIP bodyguard in Russia.

The family had struggled financially, couldn't provide university tuition for their son, and when an opportunity for a fast-tracked and solid job in Russia presented itself, the young man jumped at it as a path to a lucrative career.

And then, "Five months later, Dubandlela is in despair. His son had fallen for an alleged recruitment scam in which he and at least 16 other SA men say they were conscripted by an unspecified mercenary group and sent to join Russian forces in Ukraine."

While the South African government's relations with Russia has remained generally warm and positive even throughout nearly four years of the Ukraine war, the scandal has created strain at the highest levels.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's office has recently stepped in - given that several young men - possibly dozens, have been 'scammed' into joining the Russian military. Presidential spokesman Vincent Magwenya issued a statement saying the Dubandlela case is "receiving the highest possible attention."

In some cases the fate of the South African citizens is unknown given the fluid and dangerous nature of a battlefield environment. "The process to retrieve those young men remains a very sensitive process,” he said. "They are facing grave, grave danger to their lives and we are still in discussions with various authorities, both in Russia as well as in Ukraine, to see how we can free them from the situation they are in."

The spokesman further sought to address the reality that many South Africans have also traveled to fight for Ukrainian forces. He suggested that this is less of an issue because it was more transparent they were either volunteering or getting paid specifically to fight on behalf of Ukraine.

"In fact, the emphasis is more with the authorities in Russia and less so with the authorities in the Ukraine, because the information that we have is that they were bungled into the Russian military forces," Magwenya told a press briefing.

While it would be hard to verify, the South African recruits are reportedly thrust into extreme conditions with lacking supplies and necessities given by the Russian military command:

On Dubandlela’s phone are photos that he said his son had sent earlier this month from what he said was a location near the front line in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas.

One shows his son in combat fatigues, awkwardly holding an AK-47 assault rifle. Another shows his son trying to sleep in his underwear on the concrete floor of a cupboard-sized basement after taking cover from Ukrainian drones. He looks so thin that his ribs are visible.

They reportedly are also given low-level positions like trench-diggers or tasked with hauling ammo or high risk logistical endeavors - all while "dodging bullets" according to the report.

"They are afraid that Russian military or Russian soldiers might kill them."

Thulani Mahlangu, a representative of parents of South African mercenaries fighting for Russia, tells @SkyYaldaHakim they have no way home if they decide to leave.https://t.co/YXMcOOyMkZ pic.twitter.com/zXlvbHFbre

— Sky News (@SkyNews) December 17, 2025

Western officials have warned that social media platforms are rife with these types of deceptive recruitment campaigns. For example, Telegram is one specific platform named by European authorities as being used by Russian intelligence to recruit unwitting actors. 

In the case of the South African recruits, to many it might seem more obvious or common sense that any program advertising itself as a 'private security training course' inside Russia during an active war on its border would very likely signal that it is tied to the military and the need for extra manpower in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/24/2025 - 05:45

Vance Warns European Nukes Could Fall Into Hands Of Islamist Extremists Within 15 Years

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Vice President JD Vance has issued a stark warning that unchecked mass migration from Muslim-majority countries into Europe risks placing nuclear arsenals under the influence of Islamist politicians, posing a severe danger to American interests.

In an interview with Unherd, Vance urged that open borders policies are eroding Europe’s cultural foundations, potentially leading to catastrophic national security fallout for the U.S. and its allies.

Vance emphasized America’s deep-rooted connections to Europe, stating, “We have much greater cultural, religious, and economic ties with Europe than we do with anywhere else in the world. That is just the nature of things.”

"France and Britain have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US."

JD Vance to me.https://t.co/4Jz5HXLh4G

— Sohrab Ahmari (@SohrabAhmari) December 22, 2025

He directly tied moral and cultural decay to security risks, noting, “I think there are ways in which the moral conversation does absolutely bleed into America’s national-security interests.”

Highlighting the nuclear dimension, Vance pointed out, “France and the United Kingdom have nuclear weapons. If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with very destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the United States.”

He spotlighted existing gains by radical elements, saying, “I think there are, for example, Islamists-aligned or Islamist-adjacent people who hold office in European countries right now. Right now, maybe at an extremely low level, right? They’re winning mayoral elections, or they’re winning municipal elections.”

Vance projected a grim timeline, warning, “It’s not inconceivable to imagine a scenario where a person with Islamist-adjacent views could have very significant influence in a European nuclear power. In the next five years? No. But 15 years from now? Absolutely. And that is very much a very direct threat to the United States of America.”

Criticizing Europe’s current trajectory, he slammed their policies: “Their immigration policies have caused a significant backlash from the native population. I think that Europe doesn’t have a very good sense of itself right now, and you see that reflected in various measures of economic and cultural stagnation.”

Vance called for a revitalized Europe, declaring, “We’re not trying to destroy the European Alliance, we’re not trying to divide Europeans against one another. What we’re actually trying to do vis-à-vis Europe is to encourage them to be a little bit more self-sustaining. I think their economic policies have produced very broad-based continental stagnation.”

He added, “America sprang out of European civilization. We are fundamentally descended from a lot of European ideas. . . . That’s why we want a stronger Europe. We don’t want a weaker Europe.”

Envisioning a shared future, Vance said, “I just think that we want Europe to be strong and vibrant. I want Europe to be a place where Americans can go and visit, where there’s cultural sharing; Europeans are coming to American universities; Americans are going to European universities; where our militaries are fighting together, training together. That is impossible without some sense of a cultural foundation. The United States and Europe have that, but there’s a risk of losing it over the long term.”

This comes amid Vance’s broader push against globalist agendas undermining Western values. In the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, Europe was flagged for facing “civilizational erasure” through censorship and mass migration.

Vance has been vocal on these fronts since taking office, including a February speech at the Munich Security Conference where he blasted internal threats like free speech crackdowns in Britain and Germany.

His comments build on recent domestic wins, like dismantling DEI programs. As detailed in our previous coverage, Vance declared at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest, “We have finally made it clear that in the United States, we believe in hard work and merit. Unlike the left… we don’t treat anybody different because of their race or their sex.”

He continued, “So we have relegated [DEI] to the dustbin of history, which is exactly where it belongs. In the United States of America, you don’t have to apologize for being white anymore.”

Vance added, “And if you’re an Asian, you don’t have to talk around your skin color when you’re applying for college, because we judge people based on who they are, not on ethnicity and things they can’t control.”

He stressed unity: “We don’t persecute you for being male, for being straight, for being gay, for being anything. The only thing that we demand is that you be a great American patriot. And if you’re that you’re very much on our team.”

On immigration at home, Vance echoed similar concerns in the Unherd interview, stating, “The problem with American immigration . . . over the four years of the Biden administration, [was] that we let in too many people, too quickly. And if the numbers were much smaller, and we had tried to select for people who were much better at assimilating into American culture, I don’t think that everybody would be looking around and saying, ‘What the hell is going on?’”

He warned of consequences: “If you overwhelm the country with too many new entrants, even if they believe the right things, even if they’re fundamentally good people, you do change the country in some profound way. And so, so much of the immigration debate, I think we try to create these very firm categories. And the reality is that America does pretty well assimilating people, so long as it’s a small number of people, and they’re given an amount of time to assimilate.”

Vance highlighted risks of division: “Ethnic rivalry and balkanisation is the inevitable consequence of these things. You don’t have to think it’s a good thing. I certainly don’t, but it’s a predictable consequence of what the Left has pushed for years.”

He tied it to protecting Americans: “I’m also trying to protect the wages of workers. I’m trying to protect the social cohesion of the United States of America. I’m trying to ensure that we don’t have the rise of balkanisation and ethnic hatred, which can happen when you have too much immigration too quickly.”

Vance’s warnings expose the folly of globalist open borders that prioritize ideology over security. As Europe grapples with rising Islamist influence in local politics, the Trump administration’s America First stance serves as a blueprint to safeguard civilization from self-inflicted collapse.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/24/2025 - 05:00

Ukrainian Parliament Belatedly Explores Possible Presidential Vote Under Martial Law

Earlier this month Ukraine's President Zelensky said for the first time he's ready and willing to hold national elections, after previously canceling them while citing martial law and the ongoing war by Russia.

This week he's actually taken a practical step, telling the Verkhovna Rada - the country's parliament - to establish a formal working group to study whether elections can be held safely and fairly during a state of martial law and wartime. 

Head of Zelensky's Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, issued the following statement on Monday: "According to a preliminary agreement, a working group is being formed in the Verkhovna Rada to quickly address the issue of holding a possible presidential election in Ukraine during martial law. The discussion will take place within the Rada's relevant committee on state governance, local self-government, regional development, and urban planning."

via Interfax

The Kremlin's position is that after Ukraine canceled the 2024 election, Zelensky became illegitimate as a head of state, given that while Article 83 of the nation's constitution allows for the extraordinary extension of the parliament's powers during martial law, there is no specific clause for extending a presidential term.

President Putin himself has questioned Zelensky's legal authority to ever sign a binding peace or ceasefire document. Interestingly, President Trump has lately ramped up pressure on Kiev to hold elections, saying that the country is backsliding in terms of the democratic process.

Ukraine is reaching "a point where it's not a democracy any more," Trump said in early December. According to more of the background of what led up to Zelensky finally conceding that elections should be considered:

• Oleksandr Korniienko, First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) and newly elected head of the Servant of the People party, said he may head a parliamentary working group on referendum and elections, the creation of which has been initiated by the head of the faction, Davyd Arakhamiia.

• On 11 December, Oleksandr Korniienko said that at present there are no "drafts" or legislative initiatives in parliament regarding holding elections under martial law.

• US President Donald Trump has said that he believes that "it's time" for Ukraine to hold a presidential election. Zelenskyy responded that he is "always ready" for elections.

• He also stated that international partners must ensure security during the elections. Zelenskyy himself is ready for changes in election legislation during martial law.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed with representatives of the Verkhovna Rada the possibility of holding presidential elections in wartime Ukraine and is now waiting for MPs to "present their perspective".

But critics have said that Zelensky is more simply trying to buy time amid Washington pressure, presenting to the public that he's 'doing something' about elections while not actually planning to hold them.

"We will announce the date and time of the meeting soon. Media representatives will also be invited," Arakhamia has additionally said of the parliamentary working group. This could merely drag on as an endless bureaucratic exercise.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/24/2025 - 04:15

The UK's Ministry Of Don't Ask, Won't Tell

Authored by Clive Pinder via DailySceptic.org,

Immigration & Sexual Violence – Nothing to See Here!

Britain is now the sort of country where you can get an instant answer to ‘What is the carbon footprint of a sausage roll?’. Yet if you ask, ‘Are we importing risk to women along with importing people?’ our nation state stares at its shoes and starts muttering about ‘complexity’.

Let us begin with two official lines that any half-awake citizen can see are rising at the same time.

Line one, sexual violence.

The ONS crime bulletin for the year ending June 2025 reports 211,225 sexual offences recorded by the police in England and Wales are up 9% from the previous year. It also reports 72,804 rape offences, up 6% year on year, with rape making up around 34% of all recorded sexual offences.

The ONS, to be fair, sticks in a big asterisk. Part of the rise is not a sudden outbreak of more predators. It is a change in the bookkeeping. That means some of what now shows up as an ‘increase’ is simply behaviour that was previously recorded differently, or not cleanly separated at all, now being captured under a new label. In short, not every uptick is more men doing worse things in dark alleys.

Fine. Caveat accepted. The numbers are still brutal.

Line two, immigration.

The ONS estimates long term immigration at 898,000 in the year ending June 2025. Of those, non-EU nationals accounted for 670,000, about 75% of the total. Net migration in that year is estimated at 204,000.

If you want proof mass migration has changed Britain, bin the pamphlets, the marches and the sermons. Just open the ONS, click twice, then stick the kettle on and watch the country redraw itself in numbers.

When you have done that, do not stop at the headline ‘flow’ figure, those who arrived this year. That is only the annual intake. The canary in the coal mine is the cumulative influx. The stock, who is here now, how large it has become, and what that does over time to social norms, policing demand, and risk. On that, the official trend is not subtle.

According to the ONS the foreign-born stock in England and Wales has risen almost 150% in 22 years. From 4.6 million residents born outside the UK in 2001, to 11.4 million in 2023.  In that time the Commons Library, citing an ONS ad hoc estimate, shows the percentage has more than doubled from 8.9% to 19% of the population. That’s almost one in five. Of those roughly 8.0 million were born outside the EU, about 13% or one in eight.

That is not a marginal tweak, it is a demographic rewiring, delivered at motorway speed.

Even if net migration dips this year, the change does not politely stop at Passport Control. This is the ministerial dodge. Wave one year’s inflow figure, declare victory, move on. But if the mechanism is cumulative, a one-year wiggle tells you almost nothing about this year’s risk.

You can see the cumulative shift even in the baby name tables. Muhammad is now the top boys’ name in England and Wales, and it has been in the top ten since 2016.

More importantly, the engine is now domestic as well as imported. In 2023, 37.3% of live births in England and Wales were to parents where one or both were born outside the UK. On the mother only measure, births to non-UK born women rose from 31.8% in 2023 to 33.9% in 2024. That is the second-generation pipeline in plain numbers, large, growing, and largely indifferent to whatever headline flow figure ministers are waving around this week.

Put those lines next to the ONS crime line and you get a chart that reads like a warning label. The foreign-born share keeps rising. Recorded rape remains staggeringly high. And what once would have meant a ministerial resignation is now treated like a routine Tuesday briefing. Another awkward graph to be managed rather than a crisis to be answered.

That is correlation. It is not proof of causation, but it is not nothing either. If government wants the public to stop drawing conclusions, government needs to do the grown-up thing and test the hypothesis properly.

Instead, we get the dueling spreadsheets.

Here is the problem. We are arguing over scraps. Campaigners like Matt Goodwin point to FOI driven figures and claim foreign nationals, around 11% of the population, account for roughly 22% of rapes and 26% of sexual assaults. They ask why Britain will not publish this routinely. Meanwhile journalists like Fraser Nelson of The Times push back, arguing the ‘migrant crimewave’ story is overcooked, noting that violent crime is at multi decade lows, and even the headline MoJ claim that foreigners are convicted of up to 23% of sex crimes is disputed.

Which rather proves the point. When a country has to rely on complex FOI requests rather than publish one clear, repeatable annual bulletin, everyone ends up fighting with partial numbers and competing narratives. We have already seen where this ends with the grooming gangs’ scandal. Years of official denial and nervous statistical silence left unprotected and disbelieved girls to pay the price. It is exactly how we end up with pub verdicts and online lynch mobs.

We get endless official output on crime and immigration volumes. Charts, dashboards, glossy bulletins, the lot. Yet the moment you ask the state to connect them like adults. Who is offending? Where they were born? What their status was? How long they have been here etc? The information that actually matters to the public argument suddenly becomes curiously unavailable.

We can almost hear the civil service machine whirring.

If ministers published a clear annual table showing serious sexual offence charges and convictions by country of birth, nationality at time of offence, immigration status at time of offence, and time resident in the UK, one of two things would happen.

If the link is small or nonexistent, it would calm the debate and allow government to say, “Look, it is not that.”

If the link is meaningful in certain cohorts or settings, it would force government to do difficult things, such as tougher enforcement, tougher integration requirements and deportation where legally possible. All without hiding behind slogans.

Either way, proper measurement creates accountability. Shamefully, accountability is the one thing our politicians and the civil service we pay for avoids like an email from a Nigerian prince! (Before anyone faints, I can write that as I was born and raised there.)

This is not a statistical oversight. It is a political tradition. Inaugurated by Blair’s machine, refined by Campbell’s spin doctrine. Then inherited by every administration since like a family heirloom. Do not measure it properly. Do not publish it clearly and you can always claim the truth is ‘complex’.

Of course, the missing breakdown is not, by itself, proof of a criminal cover up. There are real problems. Patchy data, inconsistent force recording, privacy rules, shifting definitions, and plenty of scope for sloppy analysis. Fine. But a serious state fixes those problems. Our state uses them, year after year, as camouflage.

The outcome is clear. If you do not publish the table on immigration, demography and sexual violence, you cannot expect the public to trust your assurances. You create a vacuum and that vacuum fills with suspicion, anger, and increasingly nasty generalisations.

Meanwhile the same people who refused to publish the table hold a conference about ‘community cohesion’. It is like refusing to install smoke alarms and then complaining about the smell of smoke.

What a serious state would publish.

If the UK was run like a grown-up country, the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice would stop faffing about with glossy platitudes and publish one annual bulletin. One. Not twenty PDFs. Not a ministerial tweet thread. Not a seminar on ‘complexity’. A single checkable set of numbers that addresses, clearly and reproducibly:

1. For rape and serious sexual offences, charges and convictions by offender country of birth and nationality, with proper population denominators.

2. The same by immigration status at time of offence, including asylum route categories where relevant, with proper denominators.

3. Rates adjusted for age and sex structure, because young men drive most violent and sexual offending everywhere.

4. Regional breakdowns, because patterns are never uniform.

5. Clear caveats on reporting and recording, including the impact of new offence codes and counting rules, so the public is not misled.

Then, and only then, can we have the argument that politicians keep demanding we do not have. A transparent and constructive debate based on facts instead of vibes.

Until that happens, the public will continue to do what humans do. They will take the ONS crime trend, take the ONS migration trend, notice that Britain has undergone an enormous non-European inflow, notice that recorded rape remains staggeringly high, and draw their own conclusions.

The state can either measure the relationship properly, or it can keep pretending that refusing to measure it is ‘responsible’. One of those choices builds trust. The other builds resentment.

And resentment, unlike spreadsheets, does not stay missing for long.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/24/2025 - 03:30

Italy Slaps Apple With $116 Million Fine Over Double-Consent Requirement On Apps

Italy's version of the Federal Trade Commission fined Apple, Inc. nearly $116 million over what it says were overly-restrictive privacy rules that required third-party app developers to obtain user consent for data collection and tracking when it comes to delivering targeted advertising. 

A general view of the first Italian flagship Apple store in Milan on July 26, 2018. Piero Cruciatti/AFP/Getty Images

Italy's watchdog authority - the AGCM, said on Monday that Apple and its subsidiaries abused its "super-dominant" market position by requiring said consumer protections. 

The fine stems from a May 2023 joint investigation by the AGCM, European Commission, Italian Data Protection Authority (GPDP in Italian), and other national competition authorities into the restrictions from Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework. 

AGCM claims that in April 2021, Apple began requiring app developers to obtain user consent in addition to previously existing consent requirements that had been granted through Apple's own consent prompt. This double-consent requirement violates article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

"Third-party app developers are required to obtain specific consent for the collection and linking of data for advertising purposes through Apple’s ATT prompt," said the AGCM. "However, such prompt does not meet privacy legislation requirements, forcing developers to double the consent request for the same purpose."

As the Epoch Times notes further, in an executive summary of the investigation’s findings, the Italian Competition Authority of Rome lauded Apple’s efforts to safeguard user privacy within its operating system.

However, the GPDP said, making developers obtain double user consent was “excessive” and “burdensome” and ultimately led to a reduction of opt-in rates by users for data tracking on third-party apps. That action, in turn, hampered app developers’ ability to compete with Apple and deliver targeted advertising, which resulted in higher commissions paid to Apple by developers, as well as additional revenue through a higher volume of targeted ads.

“Given that user data are a key input for personalized online advertising—since higher-quality and larger volumes of data improve the ability to identify users who may be genuinely interested in the advertised product, service or app—the restrictions imposed by the ATT policy on the collection, linking and use of such data are capable of harming developers whose business model relies on the sale of advertising space, as well as advertisers and advertising intermediation platforms,” the AGCM wrote.

The Epoch Times requested comment from Apple regarding the investigation’s finding and fine by the AGCM, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Earlier this year, Apple was fined 500 million euros ($588 million) by the European Union for breaching the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and not informing customers of potential alternatives outside of its App Store. Meta was also fined 200 million euros ($235 million) for breaching the DMA by failing to provide customers with options on how much of their data is used. Apple and Meta are appealing those fines, which were levied in April.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/24/2025 - 02:45

Tulsi's Assessment That Putin Doesn't Want To Conquer All Of Ukraine Is Absolutely Correct

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

There are logical military and strategic reasons why he’s not interested in this whatsoever at all...

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard responded to a report from Reuters alleging that “Putin has not abandoned his aims of capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire”.

Tulsi condemned that as a “lie” to undermine Trump’s peace efforts and thus risk a possible hot Russian-US war.

She also claimed that “Russia’s battlefield performance indicates it does not currently have the capability to conquer and occupy all of Ukraine, let alone Europe.”

Her assessment is absolutely correct for the reasons that’ll now be explained.

For starters, Putin authorized the special operation after diplomacy failed to neutralize Ukrainian-emanating threats from NATO, ergo why Russia was compelled to resort to force.

Unlike what many “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” nowadays claim on social media, “The ‘War Of Attrition’ Was Improvised & Not Russia’s Plan All Along”, occurring only because the UK and Poland unexpectedly sabotaged spring 2022’s peace deal.

Unprecedented support from NATO led to the aforesaid “war of attrition” and resultant stalemate along large parts of the front for protracted periods of time.

As was assessed as early as that summer in July 2022, “All Sides Of The Ukrainian Conflict Underestimated Each Other”, which is why this support caught Russian planners off guard but also why it failed to inflict a strategic defeat upon Russia too. These 20 constructive critiques of Russia’s special operation from November 2022 are also relevant to this day too.

Even if Russia achieves a long-awaited breakthrough across the front, whatever territory it steamrolls into beyond that of the four disputed regions would likely only be for leverage for coercing Ukraine into complying with more of Putin’s demands for peace in exchange for withdrawing from there. Expanding Russia’s territorial claims through the holding of referenda in new regions would require controlling a significant amount of their land with an equally significant amount of people still there to participate.

Neither can be taken for granted, especially that locals won’t flee as refugees either deeper into Ukraine or across the front lines into Russia, hence the unreliability of this scenario. The strategic consequences could also be disproportionately severe if this ever unfolds since Trump could be provoked into escalating US involvement in the conflict after feeling like Putin disrespected him by doing this amidst their peace talks or possibly even manipulated him by supposedly only participating in them to buy time.

Trump has slammed Biden for the US’ complete loss of Afghanistan so he’s unlikely to let Putin conquer all of Ukraine in the political fantasy that this one day becomes possible. An escalation of US involvement in response could see it approve NATO allies’ entrance into Ukraine for drawing a “red line” as far east as possible and threaten direct “retaliation” against Russia if those forces are attacked en route. Putin has done his utmost to avoid World War III up until this point so he’s unlikely to suddenly risk it in that event.

There’s also the threat of a terrorist insurgency all across Western Ukraine if Russian forces ever reach that far, which could be costly for the Kremlin in terms of lives, treasure, and opportunities, something that Putin would likely seek to avoid as well. Bearing all this in mind, from the military difficulties to the disproportionately severe strategic consequences of claiming territory beyond the disputed regions, Tulsi is therefore absolutely correct in assessing that Putin doesn’t want to conquer all of Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/24/2025 - 02:00

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











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The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.