Huge Verdict Could Destroy 'Gender Transition For Minors' Industry

A jury on Friday found a psychologist and a surgeon liable for malpractice after they convinced a 16-year-old girl to lop off her breasts. This marks the first medical malpractice case involving a detransitioner to reach a verdict - and it has huge implications. 

Fox Varian, who identified as transgender at the time, was awarded $2 million in damages - which includes $1.6 million for past and future pain and suffering, and $400,000 for future medical expenses. Now 22, Varian identifies as a woman. 

The January 30 decision at Westchester County Courthouse in White Plains, New York, found both Dr. Kenneth Einhorn, a psychologist, and Dr. Simon Chin, a surgeon, liable for failing to meet standards of care before performing irreversible surgery on Fox Varian, as they had skipped over important steps while evaluating whether she should move forward with the surgery, and failed to adequately communicate with each other in a "departure from the standard of care." 

BREAKING: 1st Detransitioner to Take a Medical-Malpractice Lawsuit to Trial Wins $2 Million Judgement

Fox Varian sued her Westchester, NY, area psychologist and plastic surgeon for the gender-transition mastectomy she got at 16.

I was the only reporter to attend the entire… pic.twitter.com/4e89PSgGDg

— Benjamin Ryan (@benryanwriter) January 31, 2026

In closing arguments, Varian's attorney Adam Deutsch asked the jury for $8 million in damages, citing Varian's reaction to seeing her post-surgical chest scars. 

"I immediately had a thought that this was wrong, and it couldn’t be true," she said, adding that the surgery left her with 'searing hot' nerve pain that were 'ripping sensations across my chest.'

"Shame. I felt shame," she added. "It’s hard to face that you are disfigured for life."

The case centered on a referral letter Einhorn sent Chin in October 2019, roughly two months before the procedure. Deutsch argued the letter contained inaccuracies and omissions that left the surgeon without a complete picture of Varian's psychological state.

Even more tragic is the way that Varian felt pressured into her decision and the doctors never figured it out.

Elon Musk referred to the doctors as "modern day Mengeles."

There will be thousands of court cases of children who were mutilated by evil doctors, modern day Mengeles.

The schools, psychologists/psychiatrists and state officials who facilitated this will pay dearly too. https://t.co/1FrB6M50Tj

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 31, 2026

The Free Press reported last year, “gender doctors acknowledge they perform life-altering procedures on vulnerable youth with no supportive evidence—and they are proud of it.” One clinician even admitted, “We’re all just winging it, you know? And which is okay, you’re winging it too. But maybe we can just, like, wing it together.” 

The defense also claimed that Varian expressed no regret about the surgery until she filed her lawsuit in 2023. But Varian explained her earlier positive statements reflected cognitive dissonance as she tried to maintain a brave face despite inner turmoil.

Varian's mother, Claire Deacon, testified she opposed the surgery but consented because she feared her daughter would commit suicide without it. This is a common occurrence with young people suffering from gender dysphoria. In 2024, the New York Times reported how parents of confused children are often emotionally blackmailed into consenting to these procedures when doctors tell them ‘Do you want a dead son or a live daughter?’

Parents are routinely warned that to pursue any path outside of agreeing with a child’s self-declared gender identity is to put a gender dysphoric youth at risk for suicide, which feels to many people like emotional blackmail. Proponents of the gender-affirming model have cited studies showing an association between that standard of care and a lower risk of suicide. But those studies were found to have methodological flaws or have been deemed not entirely conclusive.

As the Epoch Times continues, Varian wept and hugged her mother and attorney following the verdict, which concluded a three-week civil trial at the state Supreme Court in Westchester County.

“A jury of everyday Americans sent a clear message: justice will be served for vulnerable individuals who were misled into gender-transition procedures without appropriate safeguards,” said Josh Payne of the firm Campbell Miller Payne, who was not involved in the case but was in court observing Friday’s proceedings. His firm was founded three years ago to represent plaintiffs in cases similar to Varian’s.

The decision came after the young woman regretted the 2019 surgery and sued psychologist Dr. Kenneth Einhorn, surgeon Dr. Simon Chin, and their respective employers.

The six-member jury was not asked whether gender-related surgical procedures are appropriate for minors. The question was whether the therapist and doctor took the appropriate steps before the surgery was performed.

Varian’s attorney argued the healthcare professionals did not correctly diagnose and treat her for gender dysphoria—distress and anguish caused by a mismatch between one’s physical sex and their internal perception of their gender.

Chin and Einhorn’s attorneys argued that Varian did not express regret for the surgery until years later, when she filed the suit in 2023. They noted that she told Einhorn, Chin, and her mother that she was “happy” with the results, and continued to live as either male or non-binary for years after the procedure.

Neil Kornfeld, who represented Einhorn, read from an essay Varian wrote 10 months after the surgery to back up their claim.

“It’s such an immense relief to wake up and not feel at odds with my body,” she said at that time. On the witness stand, Varian said such comments came from “cognitive dissonance” as she tried to put on a brave face about her inner turmoil.

In October 2019, Einhorn wrote a referral letter to Chin supporting Varian’s decision to have the chest surgery; she had first brought up the idea to him in March that same year. Varian’s attorneys said that since the letter contained some omissions and inaccuracies, Chin didn’t have a clear picture of his patient’s psychological history.

Trial evidence showed that Einhorn didn’t have the full picture either.

Before the surgery, Varian had told staff at the Albany Pride Center that she felt she “felt pressure to decide” on a male identity or a female identity “by family, friends, and culture.” She also said she continued to question her gender identity, but was afraid she might “lose credibility” if she brought it up with her mother.

Einhorn said he might not have written the letter had he known; Chin also testified that had he known Varian was unsure of her gender identity, he would not have performed the surgery.

Deutsch said Einhorn should have reached out to Albany Pride Center for records of her time there; he also said Chin and Einhorn should have communicated with each other, at least once, by phone call.

He began the trial by suggesting that Einhorn “drove the train” and had been “putting ideas in Fox’s head” during attempts to change her gender.

But defense attorneys argued that Varian, not Einhorn, had spurred decisions like using “he/him” pronouns, cutting her hair short, and changing her name from Isabelle to Gabriel, then Rowan, then Fox. They said the decision to wear a chest binder, and later the breast removal, were also her idea.

Deutsch, in his closing statements, said that was the problem, describing Einhorn’s attitude as “Whatever the kid wants, the kid gets.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/31/2026 - 18:05

Mainstream Expectations: Hope Vs. Potential Risk

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Mainstream expectations, those from Wall Street, economists, and corporate strategists, have congealed around a bullish economic outlook for 2026. Most forecasts project stronger economic growth, with contained inflation, and continued investment in technology and capital expenditure. As such, many institutional investors interpret this as a year of opportunity for markets and corporate earnings.That was a point we discussed at this year’s Investment Summit with the following slide.

But it isn’t just earnings that are expected to rise, but due to productivity increases (AI = Less Employment) corporate profit margins are expected swell to historic records.

However, whenever I see Wall Street becoming universally bullish, the contrarian investor in me is always reminded of Bob Farrell’s Rule #9:

“When all experts agree, something else will happen.”

As I noted in that linked article:

“Excesses are built by everyone on the same side of the trade. Ultimately, when the shift in sentiment occurs – the reversion is exacerbated by the stampede going in the opposite direction.”

Yet the broader risk landscape is significant as consensus optimism obscures important vulnerabilities. When investors anchor on expected outcomes and overlook low‑probability but high‑impact risks, those risks become amplified. History shows that markets rarely transition smoothly from one year to the next without shocks to inflation, monetary policy, geopolitics, or credit conditions. For example, on January 1st, no one expected President Trump to slap additional tariffs on Europe over the potential purchase of Greenland.

But it happened.

So with that, let’s review mainstream expectations for 2026, and detail the “low probability, high impact risks,” that could derail the complacent expectations of investors.

US Economic Growth: Resilience or Fragile Expansion?

Mainstream Expectation: Most economists expect the US economy to grow above trend in 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. GDP expanding about 2.6% year‑over‑year in 2026 compared to consensus estimates of roughly 2.0%. Their team sees above‑consensus growth and a strong rebound from 2025.

Other analysts and institutions, including PwC and RSM US, forecast similar growth in the 2.1% – 2.5% range, driven by consumer spending, corporate investment, and broader economic resilience.

Risk to That View: Growth forecasts assume stability in consumer demand, labor markets, and capital spending. But several risks could undermine this:

• Labor market fragility: Employment growth has slowed sharply in late 2025, and with a declining working‑age population due to lower immigration, net job creation may stay weak. Early data shows average monthly employment growth collapsing to levels historically consistent with labor market stress.

• Tariff and trade uncertainty: The recent threat of higher tariffs on Europe, and continued trade tensions that emerged in 2025, introduce volatility in production and pricing in supply chains. Increased tariffs across major trading partners historically correlate with lower output.

• Global headwinds: The World Bank warns that while global growth remains resilient, fading dynamism and policy uncertainty could reduce demand for U.S. exports.

Our view is that the most critical risk on 2026 is further weakness in the labor market or trade disruptions worsen which could cause growth to fall short of expectations.

Inflation and Monetary Policy: Tame or Sticky?

Mainstream Expectation: Consensus forecasts generally expect inflation to moderate through 2026, with core measures heading toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Goldman Sachs projects core inflation close to 2.1% by the end of 2026.

Some money managers expect the Fed to cut rates one or two times in 2026, assuming inflation continues its downward trend and consumer spending remains resilient.

Risk to That View: Given that inflation is a function of economic supply and demand, a “run it hot economy” could keep inflation “sticky” or slightly higher.

• Sticky core inflation: Some forecasts warn that core inflation may stay above target due to tariff pass‑through, wage pressures, or service inflation. Vanguard’s model suggests core inflation could remain above 2.5% if tariffs and labor tightness persist.

• Monetary policy divergence: J.P. Morgan’s economist predicts the Fed may actually hold rates steady or even raise them in 2027, due to sticky inflation and labor market strength despite market expectations for cuts.

• Fed independence risks: Intensified concerns over central bank autonomy could cause further disruptions and uncertainty over future monetary policy direction.

If inflation proves more persistent than expected or if policy credibility erodes, interest rates may stay elevated weighing on valuations and economic activity.

AI and Corporate Investment: Growth Catalyst or Market Excess?

Mainstream Expectation: Most forecasts see continued strong investment in artificial intelligence and related infrastructure as a driver of both corporate capex and productivity. Most analysts highlight AI’s role in lifting corporate spending and supporting economic expansion.

U.S. corporate bond issuance is also projected to surge, much of it to fund AI data centers, advanced computing infrastructure, and next‑generation platforms.

Risk to That View: The growth from AI investment is uneven and concentrated:

• Concentration of benefits: A relatively small group of mega‑cap firms capture most of the AI investment gains, which can create sector concentration risk in markets and overstate the breadth of economic benefit.

• Corporate debt buildup: Higher bond issuance tied to capex, especially for large tech projects, increases leverage risk, especially if growth slows or credit markets retrench.

• Market pricing risk: A strong investment narrative can inflate asset prices beyond fundamentals, meaning corrections may be abrupt if earnings disappoint.

AI spending is real, but it is not a universal engine for all sectors. Most critically, the overreliance on it for aggregate growth forecasts underestimates broader economic weak spots.

Consumer Spending: Supported or Overstated?

Mainstream Expectation: Analysts expect consumer resilience to remain a backbone of 2026 growth. Strong household balance sheets, robust savings for certain income groups, and wage gains support consumption forecasts. These assumptions pervade GDP models showing above‑trend expansion.

Risk to That View: Consumer dynamics can shift suddenly:

• Wealth inequality in consumption: Wealth effects are most pronounced among higher‑income households. Median consumers without significant asset holdings may reduce spending if jobs or real income weaken.
• Debt and credit stress: Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for households which could depress discretionary spending.

Consumer spending may remain resilient on average, but broad‑based weakness could emerge quietly before appearing in headline data.

The Dollar and Foreign Exchange: Weakening or Volatile?

Mainstream Expectation: Many strategists anticipate a modest depreciation of the U.S. dollar in 2026. As such, a weaker dollar would boosts export competitiveness and corporate earnings abroad.

Risk to That View: Currency markets are driven by relative risk and capital flows, not just growth differentials:

• Growth risk: Stronger economic growth will attract foreign inflows into dollar-denominated assets for higher yields and relative safety.

• Safe‑haven demand: In times of geopolitical tension or financial stress, the dollar strengthens due to its liquidity and safety. Such would potentially hurt U.S. export competitiveness.

A dollar that strengthens through risk aversion or economic growth would undercut the export growth assumptions embedded in current forecasts.

Tax Policy and Fiscal Stimulus: The Reflation Narrative

Mainstream Expectation: New tax measures, including expanded investment credits and incentives, are expected to boost consumer incomes and corporate spending in 2026. Forecasts incorporate these fiscal tailwinds into growth and profitability models.

Risk to That View: Tax benefits often provide short‑lived effects:

• Timing and bias: Households may smooth additional tax savings into future consumption rather than immediately spend them. Corporations might repatriate savings or use them for share repurchases rather than investing.

• Dependence Risk: The outlook for increased capex, spending, and earnings are all dependent on economic growth strengthening into 2026. However, as discussed, there are many risks to that view.

Tax incentives are supportive, but they should be viewed as marginal boosts rather than transformational drivers of long‑term growth.

Portfolio Tactics for Investors in 2026

The purpose of this article is not to suggests that Wall Street analysts, and market participants, are wrong. The purpose is to suggest there are risks to investor portfolios when “everyone is bullish on everything all at once.”

Therefore, given the range of possible outcomes, investors should employ adaptive, risk‑aware strategies. Rather than assuming a base‑case forecast will materialize, use portfolio tactics to help navigate uncertainty:

• Diversification Beyond Tech and Growth: Hold a mix of sectors including value, energy, and financials to reduce concentration risk. Consider allocations to fixed income to offset volatility risks.

• Inflation and Rate Risk Hedging: Maintain allocations to short‑duration bonds to reduce sensitivity to potential rate volatility.

• Dollar and Currency Exposure Management: Hedge currency risk for international holdings. A stronger dollar could undermine international growth outlooks.

• Energy and Commodity Positions: Commodities are subject to economic growth. If growth slows, commodities become a higher risk asset.

• Quality and Balance Sheet Strength: Tilt toward companies with strong balance sheets and stable free cash flow to weather cyclical shocks. Favor dividends and cash returns in uncertain environments.

• Liquidity Reserves: Maintain higher levels of cash or cash equivalents to capitalize on market dislocations. Liquid reserves provide flexibility should growth disappoint.

• Tactical Hedging Strategies: Use options or inverse instruments selectively to protect portfolios against sharp downturns. Volatility may rise unpredictably; structured hedges can provide protection without full market timing.

• Monitoring Macro Signals Actively: Track inflation metrics, labor market data, and Fed communications closely. Be ready to adjust strategies in response to shifts in inflation, policy, or geopolitical developments.

The mainstream outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, grounded in forecasts of steady growth, stable inflation, and continued technology‑led investment. Those expectations are reasonable as base cases. However, investors should not mistake forecasts for outcomes. Each major economic assumption carries material risks. Persistent inflation, monetary policy uncertainty, geopolitical shocks, and uneven growth dynamics could all lead to outcomes well outside consensus expectations.

Prudent investors will build portfolios that protect capital first, anticipate volatility, and adapt rapidly to changing economic realities. The probability distribution of 2026 outcomes is wide, and mistakes can be costly when “all the experts agree.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/31/2026 - 17:30

Palmer Luckey One-Shots Jason Calacanis Over Epstein Ties

The beef between Anduril founder Palmer Luckey and Silicon Valley angel investor Jason Calacanis goes back nearly a decade - when Calacanis joined a media circus slamming Luckey for a $10,000 donation to a pro-Trump group in 2016. The donation sparked widespread backlash among Silicon Valley's liberal elite, and resulted in calls to boycott Luckey's Oculus VR (which he founded and sold to Facebook in 2014 for $2 billion), along with his eventual ouster from Facebook.

Image: Peter H. Diamandis

In 2022, Luckey confronted Calacanis - co-host of the 'All-In' podcast, at the VC's own event over what he characterized as "NPC thinking" (non-playable characters, aka idiots who follow their party's 'current thing').

Last year, Luckey said, "Jason just lies to his followers whenever he feels embarrassed, always blocking replies from anyone who doesn't give him money. For example, accusing my cofounder of photoshopping his fat mug - in reality, it is a screenshot from his CNBC interview!"

This is an un-edited screenshot from your CNBC interview, Jason.

Is this another example of your famous lying sprees, or are are you seriously this out of touch with the reality of your body? pic.twitter.com/acCGOEViv9

— Palmer Luckey (@PalmerLuckey) February 28, 2025

In August, 2022, two months after Luckey smoked him at the All-In event, Jason attempted to mend fences after Anduril started landing government contracts, writing "I'm grateful we have Palmer making our weapons now - we need hard-core dudes like him to keep the CCP in check" followed by flexing arm + in love emojis.

Luckey told him to "Go fuck yourself and all the other clout-chasing leeches and liars who pretend sucking my dick post-Ukraine absolves treating me like shit for years."

h/t C2

Indeud... 

Epstein and Calacanis

While Calacanis was busy taking potshots at Luckey for supporting Trump, it turns out he had a longstanding relationship with Jeffrey Epstein - having first met in the 1990s while trying to fundraise for a dot-com magazine, Silicon Alley Reporter. The two met at Epstein's New York townhouse for a discussion allegedly lasting around 30 minutes according to Calacanis. 

Epstein offered some advice; 'think bigger.' 

"He gave me some advice at his townhouse once when I was raising money for the magazine," Calacanis told fa-mag. "He thought I should think bigger." 

Following Epstein's July 2019 arrest on sex-trafficking charges, Calacanis reiterated that his contact was confined to the 1990s fundraising meeting, and denied ever flying on Epstein's plane, visiting pedo island (Little St. James), or attending parties. 

Calacanis notably appears in Epstein's 'black book' - despite insisting the two had limited contact.

Hey Pal...

Turns out, not quite... A Friday release of 3 million Epstein files reveals that Calacanis introduced Epstein to early Bitcoin developers Gavin Andresen (a key contributor to Bitcoin's core software) and Amir Taaki (an open-source advocate involved in Bitcoin and related projects) in 2011.

Via DOJ

In his initial email to Epstein, Calacanis addresses Epstein casually, writing "hey pal," and mentions he's "running out to a kids birthday party," but will "dig up their info" on Andresen and Taaki, who he describes as "crazy open source folks" who are "motivated by the same things as wikileaks."

Calacanis offers to facilitate connections, noting he had recently featured them on his podcast or show.

The exchange continues, with Epstein eventually emailing Andresen directly.

"Calacanis offers to facilitate connections, noting he had recently featured them on his podcast or show."

Luckey Lays it Out

Palmer took to X following the email release to call out Calacanis over the revelations. 

Man starts VR company, donates to Trump: "Total moron, no moral compass!"

Man rapes children: "hey pal!"

See below;

One example where Jason simultaneously denies involvement with Epstein since the 90s and accuses my cofounder @mttgrmm of photoshopping him to look "twice as fat as I ever was".

(It was an unaltered CNBC screenshot, he refuses to recant or acknowledge) https://t.co/YGTMEZ2ge0

— Palmer Luckey (@PalmerLuckey) January 31, 2026

Yeah, you know GMAX? pic.twitter.com/nM5i4osFFB

— Palmer Luckey (@PalmerLuckey) January 31, 2026

And of course...

Jason has disabled comments on his account.

— Palmer Luckey (@PalmerLuckey) January 31, 2026

And that....'s the rest of the story. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/31/2026 - 16:55

Iranians Seal Windows & Store Food, Water As They Prepare For Attack

Via Middle East Eye

As night fell on Friday, a tense sense of dread settled over Iranians at home and abroad, with rumors of an imminent US military strike took hold across Iran.

"I kept waiting for it to hit. I couldn't sleep until morning. I was waking up and straining to hear any sound of explosions. Let's see what happens tonight," Milad*, a 43-year-old engineer living in the capital Tehran, said about that night. Shohreh, a 68-year-old woman, goes to a park near her home in east Tehran every morning for group exercise. When she returned home on the morning of 31 January, she said, "Today, all my friends were saying that it would hit tonight."

Shohreh, who opposes a foreign attack on Iran, said people seemed to be losing their minds. "They think that if the US strikes, everything will be fine," she said. "Because of the killings committed by the Islamic Republic, people are becoming desperate. They no longer know what is in their interest and what is against them."

Iranians wait for minibuses after arriving at the Razi-Kapikoy border crossing in north-eastern Turkey on January 31, 2026 (AFP)

For the past week, as Washington has once again beaten the drum of war against Iran, the prospect of conflict has become a real and present fear for Iranians. The movement of a large US military fleet to the Middle East has not only triggered a new multibillion-dollar arms deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel; for Iranians, it has brought confusion, psychological pressure, and fear of a disastrous future.

Iranians are still in shock following the establishment's bloody crackdown on protests that erupted on December 28 in Tehran's bazaar over the economic crisis and quickly spread to cities across the country.

According to government sources, 3,117 people, mostly security forces, were killed in the crackdown. However, human rights groups outside Iran believe the number is much higher, with some putting it at more than 6,500 people, the majority of them civilians. No international fact-finding mission has yet been established to verify the figures.

'Seal the windows'

Arzoo, a 32-year-old government employee opposed to the establishment, described a quiet anxiety among people. Many avoid talking about the deadliest aspects of war, which are all too familiar after last summer's brutal war with Israel, and try to stay calm. But everyone is waiting for the first explosion.

"My neighbour across the street, in the building where I live, has sealed his windows," Arzoo told Middle East Eye. "He said, 'Seal the windows. When they bomb, there will be no difference between the regime and the opposition.'"

Beneath the fragile calm that Iranian society clings to, perhaps as a way to manage its own mental strain, lurks a persistent question: what to do when war begins? Social media, which became accessible again after a three-week internet blackout during the crackdown on protests, is now filled with advice on how to survive missile attacks and bombs.

The list of precautions is long: stock enough food and water for 10 days; keep a first-aid kit within reach; place identification and essential documents in a bag for quick evacuation; keep emergency exits clear; move to open spaces at the sound of an explosion; lie on the ground next to a wall. Dozens of similar tips circulate on Persian-language platforms.

The sources of much of this advice are unclear. It is also unknown whether the same bots active during the June Israeli-US strikes – promoting Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah – are behind it. Whoever is behind these posts has an evident impact.

Arzoo said she has seen the messages and has stored "10 bottles of drinking water and a few cans of food at home, just in case".

Amin, a 75-year-old retiree with kidney disease, said he bought a three-month supply of medication last week and is keeping it at home. "Some of this advice may be media manipulation," he said, "but I bought my essentials anyway, out of caution. No one knows what will happen tomorrow."

Amin, who lived through the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and last year's 12-day war, said he is deeply saddened to see his country on the brink of another war.

A leftist activist who has opposed the theocratic rulers since the 1979 revolution, he said: "This regime executed my closest comrades after the revolution and is now killing our children. I have no sympathy for it. But I also hate war. War will destroy everything left for us."

These fears and preparations are not limited to those inside Iran. They are shared by the Iranian diaspora, estimated at around four million people. Many fear another nationwide internet blackout, like those during the 12-day war and last month's crackdown, that would disconnect them from their loved ones. They also fear for the lives of their families.

At least one person was killed and over a dozen injured as a result of a “gas explosion” this morning in the Southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, with the apartment building from which the blast originated from suffering significant damage. Claims have circulated that the… pic.twitter.com/ZLZtyF858J

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 31, 2026

Fatemeh, who lives in Finland with her husband and son, worries about her elderly parents in Tehran. During the war with Israel, her parents could not leave the city because they had no access to transportation. 

"I asked my parents to leave Tehran before a new war started," Fatemeh said. "They answered they wouldn't go anywhere. They said they had nowhere to go, which is true. That's why I asked a close friend to visit them and buy basic supplies and medicines during these days."

'A fool like Donald Trump'

Across Iran, cities remain calm, at least for now. There are no long lines at gas stations. Shops are open. People are going to work as usual. Early in the morning, schoolchildren wait outside their homes for the school bus.

Still, the sense of alarm is widespread. Soroush, a 27-year-old student, moved with his family to a city in northern Iran during the war to escape Israeli missiles. He said while the panic of that period is no longer visible, the fear of another war runs through everyday conversations.

"The vibe is not like the collective panic of the 12-day war," he said. "It feels like people are mentally prepared. Before the Israeli attack, we had no idea what war would look like. Now we have an image in front of us. We know what we will face."

Soroush feels that the lives of Iranians have turned into a game for the country's leaders and for Western powers. He points to the betting website Polymarket, where many have bet thousands of dollars on a US strike on the night of 31 January. 

"Our lives and our deaths have become entertainment," he said. "A game for others."

Saba, 41, spoke of her fear for the future of her eight-year-old daughter and 12-year-old son. She also described her frustration with the government's repression, the self-interest of opposition figures abroad, and the US warmongering.

"What a miserable people we are," she said. "Our rulers massacre people in the streets. Reza Pahlavi has become the face of our opposition abroad. And our enemy is a fool like Donald Trump."

*Names have been changed for security reasons.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/31/2026 - 16:20

Latest Epstein Release Catches Goldman's Top Lawyer In Massive Lie

Earlier this month the Wall Street Journal reported that there was an internal debate at Goldman Sachs over whether to get rid of General Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler over her relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. 

Kathryn Ruemmler, Jeffrey Epstein

Ruemmler, a former White House attorney for Obama, told Goldman execs when they hired her in April 2020 that the relationship was purely professional - yet it would later become public that she not only met with Epstein dozens of times and exchanged friendly emails for years, she was listed as an executor of Epstein's will as recently as Jan. 18, 2019 - which had been removed before he died in prison on Aug. 10 of that year.

She also denied having ever helped Epstein with PR, telling the outlet "I did not advocate on his behalf to any third party—not to a court, not to the press, not to the government."

Turns out that was a total lie. 

On Friday, the DOJ released over 3 million pages of Epstein documents, including one in which Ruemmler was helping draft statements to help Epstein counter claims that he got a "sweetheart deal" when he was allowed to plead guilty to minor charges in a 2007-2008 sex trafficking case involving dozens of underage girls. 

Epstein email confirms what we wrote in December, Kathy Ruemmler was helping draft potential Epstein statements dismissing claims he got a "sweetheart deal" to outlets like Washington Post. pic.twitter.com/rmfk1IG8Z1

— Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE) January 30, 2026

We also found out that their relationship was far from 'purely professional' - as the Washington Free Beacon reported Friday that Epstein showered her with luxury gifts - including a $9,400 Hermes handbag, a Hermes-branded Apple watch, and a spa treatment package at the Four Seasons Hotel in Washington DC. 

The documents released Friday show otherwise. In emails ranging from 2014 to 2019, Ruemmler routinely corresponded with Epstein's associates to accept gifts or express her gratitude to Epstein. In some cases, she asked for specific items.

The priciest gift likely came in August 2016, when Epstein purchased Ruemmler a $9,400 handbag from the French luxury brand Hermes. Epstein took a particular interest in ensuring Ruemmler received the bag, directing one of his associates, Lesley Groff, to "confirm receipt with Kathy" and "follow up to make sure it happens." When Ruemmler received the bag, she wrote to Groff, "OH MY GOD!!!!! He is in so much trouble!!!! I am dying. It is so beautiful," as Groff relayed to Epstein. Used versions of the same bag—a Jypsiere 31—now sell for around $5,000.

The bag:

The emails:

 

Two years later, Epstein styled Ruemmler with the Hermes edition of the Apple Watch - which retails for $1,300. In response, she said the gift was "so sweet of Jeffrey!" 

"If truly okay with him to do the Hermes, I would love the 40 mm, stainless Hermes with bleu indigo swift leather double tour," she wrote at the time. "I'll wear that one every day, whereas the sportier ones I would likely only wear on weekends or when exercising, etc."

As for the spa treatment, Epstein booked a "full half day" at the Four Seasons Hotel in Georgetown in August 2016 - writing to an associate "she won her case and needs some pampering," to which an associate replied "Kathy will go either today or tomorrow she says…"

The Free Beacon reports further:

Epstein appeared to provide other gifts of unknown value to Ruemmler. In December 2014, an Epstein associate emailed Ruemmler to inform her that Epstein planned to send his housekeeper to "deliver your ring to you!!" In February 2019, an Epstein associate sent a reminder email to an unidentified individual reading, "Reminder: Bottle of wine and note card to be delivered to Ruemmler today. Let me know once it has been delivered so I can tell Jeffrey."

Months after that email, Epstein was arrested in July 2019 and charged with sex trafficking minors. 

After graduaating from Georgetown University Law Center, Ruemmler served in the Obama White House from 2011-2014, after which she returned to law firm Latham and Watkins. She joined Goldman in 2020 as a partner, and became chief legal officer and general counsel in 2021 - where she also advises CEO David Solomon. 

After an April 2023 report in the Journal detailing the more extensive connections between Ruemmler and Epstein - including how the two had "met dozens of times, that Epstein had visited apartments she was considering buying and that he offered assistance with her travel planning," including a 2017 plan to take her to 'pedo island,' bankers complained to senior management - pointing out that she had a role on the firm's reputational risk committee. The bankers were essentially told to stand down. 

Will Goldman continue to stand behind their Epstein gal-pal top lawyer?

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/31/2026 - 15:45

Seattle Mayor Directs Police To Track And Document ICE Enforcement Activities

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Seattle Mayor Katie B. Wilson announced a series of steps on Jan. 30 in response to a potential surge in federal immigration enforcement, directing local police to track and document activities by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and barring agents from city property to conduct operations.

The moves made by Wilson, a democratic socialist, comes amid heightened Democratic pushback against federal immigration enforcement actions after the fatal shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.

Wilson’s measures include an executive order banning ICE from using city-owned properties for civil immigration actions, mandatory training for city employees on how to report and respond to enforcement activity, and quickly investing $4 million in funding for legal defense and community support for illegal immigrants.

The mayor noted that the city does not have information indicating a surge in federal immigration enforcement activity.

Wilson also encouraged the Seattle School District and the Seattle Municipal Court to prohibit ICE agents from conducting operations on their property.

The directive requires the Seattle Police Department to investigate reports of immigration enforcement, verify agents’ identities, and record activities using body cameras and in-car video. Officers must secure scenes of potential unlawful acts for evidence collection, though the city emphasized police will not participate in deportations.

The Seattle Police Officers Guild pushed back on the mayor’s measures, saying, “The concept of pitting two armed law enforcement agencies against each other is ludicrous, and will not happen.”

“I will not let [Seattle Police Officers Guild] members be used as political pawns,” Mike Solan, president of the guild, said in a statement.

The mayor’s directive also establishes the Stand Together Seattle Initiative, which encourages private property owners to post signs on their property stating ICE agents may not enter without a warrant.

Seattle is a self-proclaimed sanctuary city, meaning it limits cooperation with federal immigration authorities. A federal judge last year blocked President Donald Trump’s efforts to withhold funds from such cities, including Seattle, after the administration threatened funding cuts over non-compliance.

Similar rulings have curbed attempts to end humanitarian parole for thousands of illegal immigrants. A federal judge in Boston in January blocked the Trump administration from terminating the legal status of more than 8,400 family members of U.S. citizens and green card holders.

The Trump administration has ramped up deportations, budgeting $170 billion for immigration agencies through 2029 and authorizing arrests at courthouses in cities like Seattle.

After the shooting of Pretti in Minneapolis, President Donald Trump deployed border czar Tom Homan to oversee immigration operations in the city. Homan said on Jan. 29 that the adminstration will draw down agents in the area when local authorites fulfill committments to cooperate with federal authorities.

Federal authorities, Homan, said, will focus on targeted immigration operations in the city, prioritizing criminal illegal immigrants.

The Department of Homeland Security and ICE did not return a request for comment by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/31/2026 - 15:10

Putin Envoy Dmitriev Back In Miami For Talks, Which Seem To Be Going Nowhere

President Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev has arrived in Miami this weekend where he held another round of talks with an American delegation. The discussions started early Saturday morning, after Dmitriev confirmed his arrival, writing on social media simply, "Back in Miami".

The talks follow a round of meetings held on January 23-24 in Abu Dhabi involving the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. Media reports said those discussions produced "progress" on military-related issues, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky describing them as constructive. But were they really?

via Reuters

Apart from such expressions of limited optimism, there's been no serious advancement of peace in any tangible or measurable way, and on issues which matter as 'red lines' to either side.

For example, territorial concessions are still a sticking point for Moscow, but Ukraine and its Western backers have not budged their position on this.

Axios has meanwhile reported that the trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates are expected to continue on Sunday, adding that meetings in Abu Dhabi also included a bilateral Ukraine-Russia format conducted without US participation.

The fact that the warring sides actually have representatives sitting across the table from one another can itself be seen as progress in some sense.

Meanwhile, according to some recent analysis in The Washington Post which furthers the theme that Trump has actually seeking to wash his hands of the Ukraine conflict and its mediation:

President Donald Trump “sometimes talks as if he agrees with Vladimir Putin that Russian victory in this bloodbath [in Ukraine] is inevitable,” according to David Ignatius’s column in The Washington Post. However, Ignatius’ conversations in Kyiv with Ukraine’s senior officials convinced him that “this bleak picture is misleading.”

“Ukraine will soon deploy a new generation of domestically produced air-defense interceptors, powered by artificial intelligence, that could allow the country to fight on indefinitely,” Ignatius writes. “Putin doesn’t want to make concessions because he still thinks he can win. But Ukraine’s new network of AI-driven air defenses will make that less likely. If Ukraine can protect the civilians on Kyiv’s frozen streets—and reassure them that they won’t face another winter in the deep freeze, even if the war continues—perhaps Putin will reconsider his bet,” according to Ignatius.

And so the grinding war of attrition looks to endure for the time being, and by close of 2026 we could still be seeing the exact same headlines, and empty statements of 'progress' at the negotiating table.

One question which remains is whether Zelensky will still be in power by next year. Trump has put pressure for Kiev to hold elections, but in the last couple weeks seems to have backed off keeping up the public pressure.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/31/2026 - 14:35