Initial Jobless Claims Refuse To Signal Labor Market Stress

Following the impressive payrolls data (revisions aside), the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to 227k last week (down from 232k - which was a notable jump)...

Pennsylvania and Missouri saw the biggest declines in initial claims while Texas and Virginia saw the largest rise...

Which is odd because the week before, Pennsylvania saw the largest increase in jobless claims...?

Continuing jobless claims ticked up from their lowest since May 2024...

Finally, WTF is going on in the labor market - Payrolls beat (but revisions were ugly), JOLTs are tumbling, Surveys suggest a tough labor market (jobs hard to get far worse than jobs plentiful), but... initial jobless claims remain flat near multi-decade lows?

Which is weird because before 2019, the two time series sync'd up very well - as one would expect...

Should we just be ignoring surveys completely now?

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 08:35

US Futures Rise As European, Asian All Time Highs Spill Over

Futures are higher but there continues to be tangible angst below the surface as traders are aggressively shorting potential AI losers, while US stocks continue to fall behind the rest of the world. “It’s a paradox in that markets are holding, breaking records, yet investors remain cautious,” says Vontobel’s head of equities Jean-Louis Nakamura. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are up 0.3%, with premarket strength in Mag7, Semis and Cyclicals while Energy and Materials underperform. It’s unclear right now which stocks will be hurt by AI, but it’s clear that traders are nervous. “The slightest miss on earnings is brutally penalized and substantial beats are required to boost share prices,” said Nakamura. Bond yield stabilize, flat to down 1bp across the curve with USD also flat. Commodities are mostly lower with Energy and Metals weaker (WTI, Precious down less than 1%) and Ags higher. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims and existing home sales. With the stabilization in the bond market and net positive WTD macro data, we may investors push the market higher into tmrw’s CPI where only a materially hawkish print is likely to shift the market narrative.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Alphabet +0.5%, Amazon +0.3%, Apple -0.2%, Nvidia +1.2%, Meta Platforms +0.4%, Microsoft +0.4%, Tesla +0.5%), 

• Coal stocks are up after the Trump administration ordered the Pentagon to purchase electricity from coal plants and announced funding for upgrades to coal facilities.
• Baxter International (BAX) falls 14% after the medtech company posted fourth quarter results.
• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) drops 7% after the company gave a weaker-than-expected forecast for profitability in the current quarter, spurring concerns that mounting memory-chip prices are taking a toll on the company.
• Cognex (CGNX) is up 23% after the electronics components company forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Equinix (EQIX) rises 9% after the data center operator’s 2026 revenue guidance beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the increased bookings and highlight a boost to the company’s forecast from accelerated AI demand.
• Fastly (FSLY) soars 40% after the cloud-platform provider posted fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and management gave a robust full-year forecast.
• ICON (ICLR) sinks 33% after the company said the audit committee launched an internal investigation into its accounting practices.
• Paycom Software (PAYC) falls 9% after the company’s outlook was seen as disappointing and pointing to tepid growth trends.
• Trip.com ADRs (TCOM) fall 5% after China Central Television reported that the city of Beijing had summoned the internet firm along with 11 others over issues related to train ticket sales.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) rises 13% after the biotech said it plans to advance its oral obesity drug to Phase 3 in the third quarter of this year.
• Zoetis (ZTS) climbs 4% after the animal health company gave a forecast for adjusted earnings per share for 2026 that topped Wall Street’s expectations

With US stocks lagging gains in Asia and Latin America this year, the moves underscore how sensitive the market has become to companies’ exposure to the infrastructure behind the AI boom. Memory-chip shortages and pricing are coming up frequently as topics in company earnings reports and conference calls.

“This is a year of the bullish stock market, but a very volatile stock market — and the volatility will be induced by the AI trade, which is evolving,” said Beata Manthey, head of European Equity Strategy at Citigroup Inc. “Right now we are concentrating on losers. But we also need to discover who the new winners are going to be.”

The AI winners and losers trade is playing out across the world, helping Asian markets — with a heavy concentration of AI hardware firms — extend their lead over the US. That’s left the S&P 500 ranking 69th among the 92 stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg, according to Markets Live. Among sectors, jitters over software have given the ‘old economy’ stocks in the Dow Jones Transportation Average a new lease of life. 

And in single stocks, the huge memory-chip needs of AI are rippling out. Japanese chipmaker Kioxia surged after its guidance beat estimates, while Cisco shares are lower in premarket trading after saying that mounting memory chip prices are hurting its margins. Elsewhere in the AI space, Anthropic is said to be nearing the completion of a deal to raise more than $20 billion in a funding round with a plethora of big investors. And Softbank announced a near-$20 billion investment gain on OpenAI.

Since Jan. 9, there has been a larger swing for the average S&P 500 stock compared to 99% of the time over the past three decades. The 10.8% move, averaged on an absolute basis in that time, has created a windfall for investors with long dispersion positions, according to data from Nomura. US stocks appear less vulnerable than in recent weeks after hedge funds reduced positioning in January, according to JPMorgan strategists.

Traders are also keeping a close eye on key US economic data. Jobs numbers on Wednesday came in surprisingly strong, and attention now turns to Friday’s inflation report for clues on future policy moves by the Federal Reserve.

In politics, Trump’s tariff policies suffered their strongest political blow yet with the Republican-led US House passing legislation aimed at ending the president’s levies on Canadian imports. The US and Japan are closing in on the first three projects to be funded by Tokyo’s $550 billion investment vehicle, as part of their bilateral trade deal.

Out of the 346 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 77% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 19% have missed. CBRE, Exelon and Iron Mountain are among companies due to report results before the market open. CBRE earnings come in the face of a real estate services ‘AI scare trade’ which hit the sector on Wednesday. Earnings from Applied Materials, Coinbase and Airbnb follow later.

Europe's Stoxx 600 rises 0.5% to 624.50, hitting a new record high on Thursday amid a flurry of positive earnings, including from EssilorLuxottica SA and Siemens AG. Financial services outperform, as Nuveen’s deal to buy Schroders Plc sends the UK asset manager soaring. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Schroders shares jump as much as 31%, the most since 2008, after the firm agreed to be bought by US asset manager Nuveen for £9.9 billion ($13.5 billion), a 34% premium to Wednesday’s closing price.
• EssilorLuxottica shares jump as much as 10%, the most since October, after the eyewear maker reported better-than-expected sales for the fourth quarter, riding a boom in demand for AI-powered glasses.
• Siemens gains as much as 6.2%, hitting a record high, after delivering order beats in both Digital Industries and Smart Infrastructure in the first quarter, and boosting its EPS guidance for the full year.
• Autostore shares surge as much as 17%, the most since mid-August, after the Norwegian warehouse automation firm delivered a strong revenue beat in the fourth quarter.
• Hermès gains as much as 3.1% as the French maker of the Birkin bag reported fourth-quarter sales and full-year profits that beat estimates.
• Michelin shares rise as much as 6.2% to the highest since May, after the French tiremaker’s plan to buy back as much as €2 billion worth of shares positively surprised analysts, who also noted improvement in earnings momentum.
• Adyen shares slump as much as 20% after the payments firm gave a revenue growth target that missed estimates, citing “continued macroeconomic uncertainty” weighing on market volume growth.
• Magnum shares fall as much as 16% in Amsterdam after full-year results that Jefferies analysts said will fuel concern over the impact of weight-loss drugs on demand.
• Verisure shares drop as much as 11% to a new record low, after the security services firm missed fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda estimates, despite strong growth in new installations.
• RELX shares give up early gains as analysts at Morgan Stanley said one set of robust numbers will not settle the broader debate on how artificial intelligence may impact the software and information services sector.
• Sanofi shares drop as much as 5.1%, the most since Dec. 15, after the French drugmaker changed its chief executive following big bets on research spending which didn’t produce quick results, in a move that Jefferies analysts said “will be debated.”
• Mercedes shares fall as much as 5.7% after the German carmaker said margins would remain under pressure in 2026 due to US tariffs and China competition.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed, poised for a fifth day of gains, on continued investor optimism over benefits for the region’s technology hardware suppliers from the artificial intelligence boom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, on track for its best week since September 2024. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.1% to extend its lead as the world’s best-performing market this year, driven by gains in memory makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. 

The region’s stocks are outperforming global peers this year on extended enthusiasm for AI infrastructure firms, even as doubts over high spending and potential obsolescence of older business models rattle other markets. The MSCI Asia gauge has jumped about 13% so far this year versus the 1.4% advance in the S&P 500 Index, marking its best start to the year relative to the US gauge this century.  The US gauge ranks 69th among the 92 stock indexes around the world tracked by Bloomberg. South Korea is the world’s best-performing market with a 30% surge.

Elsewhere, Japanese stocks extended gains on hopes that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win may boost spending. Hong Kong shares fell, bucking the broader regional gain, while mainland China equities traded flat ahead of Lunar New Year holidays. There’s no trading in Taiwan through next week.

In FX, USD/JPY is down marginally on the session but well off the APAC lows as questions surface over whether the post-election yen rally is running out of steam. The Bloomberg Dollar Index falls 0.1% with losses most pronounced against the franc and kiwi. The pound was unfussed by soft Q4 GDP metrics.

In rates, treasuries hold small gains, outperforming European bonds ahead of weekly jobless claims data and 30-year new-issue auction.The US 10-yr yield is unchanged at 4.17%. Bunds and gilts are similarly contained. US yields richer by 1bp to 2bp curve with curve spreads little changed; new 10-year yield near 4.165% is 1.5bp lower on the day, slightly outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector. $25 billion 30-year new-issue auction at 1pm New York time concludes this week’s Treasury supply; Wednesday’s 10-year tailed by 1.4bp. WI 30-year yield near 4.795% is ~3bp richer than January’s, which stopped through by 0.8bp. 

In commodities, spot gold and silver are giving back some of yesterday’s gains, down 0.4% and 1.2% respectively. WTI futures are down 0.1% after failing to hold onto the mild APAC bid. Bitcoin is up 0.5%.Bitcoin briefly slid under $67,000, while Japan’s super-long bonds extended their post-vote rally as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election win soothed investor concerns about fiscal policy.

Today's US economic calendar slate includes weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and January existing home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (7pm) and Miran (7:05pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +1.4%, CAC 40 +0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.17%
• VIX -0.2 points at 17.46
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1180.38
• euro little changed at $1.1881
• WTI crude -0.4% at $64.4/barrel

Top Overnight News

• In a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed with lawmakers who suggested the Senate Banking Committee could investigate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, instead of the Justice Department. Semafor
• China has confirmed that discussions were under way about US President Donald Trump’s planned visit in April, when sources said the two sides were expected to extend their current trade truce by up to one year. SCMP
• One year after Chinese startup DeepSeek rattled the global tech industry with the release of a low-cost artificial intelligence model, its domestic rivals are better prepared, vying with it to launch new models, some designed with more consumer appeal. DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance are set to release new AI models. RTRS
• Futures signaled that gains in Asian equities may extend to the US. Treasuries were flat after strong jobs data sparked a jump in yields. The dollar, gold and oil edged lower. BBG
• The “buy Japan” trade gained momentum after PM Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory increased investor confidence. The country’s long-dated bonds jumped, while the Topix extended its rally. BBG
• The UK economy grew less than forecast in the fourth quarter, piling pressure on Keir Starmer. GDP rose 0.1%, falling short of the 0.2% consensus. The pound was little changed. BBG
• The House of Representatives has voted to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada in a major rebuke of the US president’s signature economic policy. FT
• The Fed’s Jeff Schmid said rates should remain at a “somewhat restrictive” level, while Stephen Miran said January’s strong jobs report doesn’t warrant delaying further cuts. BBG
• Global oil inventories surged by 477 million barrels in 2025, the fastest build since 2020, as supply outpaced slowing demand, the IEA said, forecasting a record surplus in 2026. BBG
• “Old Economy” stocks are back in the lead. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has outpaced the S&P 500 in the past six weeks, as investors pivot from megacap tech to rails, truckers and airlines. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• Chinese buyers are reportedly buying around 1mln tonnes per month of Australian barley due to a local feed supply shortage, traders report. Chinese buyers are reportedly booked near 2.5mln tonnes of US sorghum over the past three months to replenish domestic feed grain shortfall, traders report.
• Indian Trade Minister said textiles will receive no duties if raw material is from the US.
• China's Commerce Ministry announced a tariff of up to 11.7% (prev. 42.7%) on EU dairy products; effective from the 13th of February.
• China's Commerce Ministry, on Canada canola anti-dumping tariffs, said investigation period extended to March 9th.
• China's Commerce Minister said China and the US are to maintain close communication at all levels through trade and economic consultation mechanisms.
• China's chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang met with Mexico's deputy economy minister in Beijing.
• China's top trade negotiator met with Westinghouse Electric Company CEO on Tuesday.
• Taiwan and the US are reportedly to sign a reciprocal trade agreement on February 13th.
• US President Trump posted "Canada has taken advantage of the United States on Trade for many years. They are among the worst in the World to deal with, especially as it relates to our Northern Border".
• US President Trump posted "Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!".
• US House majority backs resolution to eliminate Trump's tariffs on Canada.
• US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are poised to extend trade truce by up to a year during April meeting in Beijing, according to SCMP citing people familiar with discussions.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with a slightly positive bias amongst the major indices as the region reflected on earnings releases and the better-than-expected US jobs data, while Japan's benchmark hit a fresh record high on return from holiday, before fading the gains. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in utilities and financials after shares in Origin Energy and ANZ Group rallied post-earnings, but with upside in the broader market capped by hawkish rhetoric from RBA Governor Bullock. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses, in which the index initially climbed to above the 58,000 level for the first time, but then briefly wiped out all of its gains as  currency strength persisted. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by underperformance in the likes of Budweiser and NetEase following their earnings releases, with the latter also weighed by tech/AI-related headwinds, which dragged other large tech names lower such as Tencent, Baidu and Meituan, while AI startup Zhipu shares surged around 36% after the release of its new model. Conversely, the mainland treaded water following another firm liquidity operation by the PBoC and after China's State Council held a session on boosting AI use, with Premier Li urging to promote the use of AI in various sectors, while there are also expectations for the US and China to extend the trade truce by up to a year during the expected Trump-Xi meeting in April.

Top Asian News

• Japan is said to have requested US Fed/NY Fed JPY rate check back in January.
• Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura won't comment on FX levels and said closely watching markets with a high sense of urgency, also said they are not lowering our guard and are in contact with US authorities.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama discussed with PM Takaichi about how to proceed with tax credits for benefits and sales tax cut on food, while she did not discuss forex with the PM, according to Jiji.
• Softbank (9984 JT) CFO Goto said nothing has been decided about an additional funding round for OpenAI.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are entirely in the green, with the DAX 40 (+1.2%) leading gains and CAC 40 (+0.9%) following closely behind. On the other hand, the Dutch AEX (-0.5%) lags, weighed by Adyen and Magnum earnings. Sectors hold a mostly positive bias with Financials (+1.3%) and Telecommunications (+1.0%) leading the pack. Schroders (+28.5%) leads in financials after Nuveen agreed to purchase the company for GBP 9.9bln. Deutsche Boerse (+2.0%) is also higher, after acquiring a further 20% stake in ISS STOXX, which is expected to be accretive to cash EPS in the first full year. Movers include Siemens (+5.7%), Hermes (+1.3%) and Mercedes-Benz (-2.0%). Siemens missed top-line expectations but raised its FY EPS guidance helping shares higher. Hermes posted earnings that beat estimates and highlighted that 2026 prices increases would be lower than it was in 2025. For Mercedes Benz, the Co. guided its Adj. ROS below market consensus.

Top European News

• EU Court Advisor said they should stop the release of c. EUR 10bln in funds for Hungary.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to limit the deregulatory drive as she seeks closer UK relations with the EU, according to FT.

Central Banks

• Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) said unemployment rate looks like it's stabilising, adds we have the labour market broadly in balance but noted inflation is still too high. Consumer spending holding in driven by upper incomes. Important for Fed to get inflation back to 2%. Current Fed Funds Rate is right around neutral. Local contacts say growth is picking up. Good for the Fed to stay on hold right now and doesn't need to fine-tune rate policy.
• Fed Governor Miran said Wednesday's NFP report does not mean the Fed can't lower rates. Think if you increase supply then you get a decline in inflation. If you blame supply chain failures for higher inflation, stands to reason pushing supply out lowers inflation. Deregulation opens up an output gap. I'd be very Happy to stay, but not up to me. What happens later this year will depend on choices the President and the Senate make.
• ECB's Makhlouf said that the ECB is in a good place, adding that inflation is currently on target.
• ECB's Cipollone said preserving monetary sovereignty has been a key objective of our single currency.
• ECB's Villeroy said expected France's economic growth in Q1 to be between 0.2-0.3%, and in line with the 1% annual growth expected in 2026.
• BoE's Breeden said it is reasonable to expect rate cuts across the next couple of meetings if the economy evolves as expected.
• RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said need to assess extent to which recent rise in inflation is temporary, adds labour market has stabilised recently, but remains a bit tight; expects labour markets to remain tight and inflation above target for some time.
• RBA Governor Bullock said economy performing reasonably well, labour market a positive development, adds the Bank will monitor data and act if inflation becomes entrenched, warning that further rate hikes may be needed. She further added that the board decided inflation at around 3-point something was unacceptable.
• CBRT raises its end-2026 inflation forecast to 15-21% (prev. 13-19%).

FX

• G10s are mostly firmer against the USD. Kiwi leads, followed by the GBP, whilst the Aussie lags a touch; the latter seemingly paring back recent strength.
• DXY is incrementally lower today. As a reminder, the index was choppy in the prior session following a strong NFP report and as markets continue to digest reports that President Trump is looking exit the North American trade pact. Currently, the index resides towards the lower end of a 96.77-97.07 range, and further pressure could see a test of the prior day’s low at 96.49. Focus today will be on the US Jobless Claims, and then an appearance from the POTUS.
• GBP is slightly firmer this morning, largely attributed to the slight USD weakness. Earlier, a mixed GDP report spurred two-way action in Cable; in brief, December’s M/M figure printed in-line with expectations, whilst the Y/Y component and Q4 prelims metrics came in softer than expected. GBP/USD fell from 1.3617 to 1.3607 before paring, and then strengthening as the morning progressed. ING opines that, given recent seasonality-related factors, it expects the economy to “bounce back” a bit in Q1. On monetary policy, the bank believes that if recent growth and labour market weakness persist alongside falling wage growth, then a March cut is “highly likely”. As it stands, Cable currently sits at the upper end of a 1.3604-1.3654 range.
• JPY is currently moving at the whim of the USD, with USD/JPY towards the midpoint of a 152.26-153.54 range. Further pressure in the pair could see a test of the lows seen in late January, when Jiji reported that Japan asked the US to conduct USD/JPY rate checks. In terms of the environment for JPY, markets are continuing to increase bets of faster BoJ normalisation. Mizuho’s Koshimizu, speaking to Reuters, highlighted that improved growth prospects, clearer policy strategy and inflation continuing to remain above the BoJ’s target, may allow the Bank to deliver three rate hikes this year – suggesting that a hike could come as early as March or April. Markets currently price in a 60% chance of a hike in March, 92% chance in June and fully priced in for July.

Fixed Income

• A contained start for most benchmarks.
• Gilts are the relative outperformers after soft GDP data. The benchmark opened higher by 18 ticks before climbing another nine to a 91.30 peak and notching a fresh WTD high. Weighing on the UK's 10yr yield to a 4.47% trough. For the BoE, the data works in favour of the doves who wanted to cut last week and somewhat skews the narrative towards a March cut vs current pricing for April. However, pricing didn't really move as we await next week's CPI and employment/wage metrics; furthermore, while the series was weak, the economy was still resilient during a tumultuous Q4, a finding that tempers the otherwise dovish impulse.
• JGBs returned from Wednesday's holiday lower, reacting to the US NFP print and bearish UST action. Pressure that proved fleeting as the benchmark lifted to a 132.02 peak with gains of just over 10 ticks at best. However, that upside faded across the APAC session to a 131.52 trough. Drivers for this include a Reuters interview with Mizuho's Kozhimizu, who expects as many as three hikes by the BoJ in 2026, and a move as soon as March or April is entirely possible. As it stands, just 3.5bps of tightening is implied in March, 14bps in April and 23.6bps in June, with a move not fully priced until July, where 30bps is implied.
• Bunds firmer, but contained, in narrow 128.62-76 parameters. Specifics for the bloc light, no move to a handful of ECB remarks, which stuck to the script.
• A similar story for USTs, rangebound in APAC hours towards the mid-point of the post-NFP drop. Holding at 112-11+ in thin parameters that are well within Wednesday's 112-00 to 112-20 bound. Today, the US docket is comparatively light, with supply and weekly jobs the highlights. Barring a surprise on those, it may be a bit of a filler day into Friday's CPI.
• Italy sells EUR 6.25bln vs exp. EUR 5-6.25bln 2.40% 2029, 3.15% 2033, 3.25% 2032 BTP.
• Australia sold AUD 150mln in 2035 indexed bonds, b/c 3.97, avg. yield 2.4127%.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are mildly lower this morning and currently trade within a USD 64.18-65.10/bbl and USD 68.86-69.85/bbl range, respectively. Really not much driving things for the complex this morning; action seemingly a paring back of some of the geopolitically-driven strength in the prior session, where reports suggested that the Pentagon was preparing a second aircraft carrier to deploy to the Middle East. It is worth noting a bout of pressure was seen in early European trade, though this lacked a clear driver. Elsewhere, the IEA OMR cut its 2026 global oil demand and supply growth forecast.
• Spot gold has been lacklustre thus far throughout the European morning, with the yellow metal trading around the USD 5,075/oz mark at the time of writing, still within yesterday's USD 5,019.71-5,119.35/oz range, with fresh catalysts on the lighter side. Alongside news flow, the Dollar remains relatively muted following yesterday's NFP-driven volatility, which proved to be short-lived. Both the Dollar and XAU have been moving sideways since awaiting the US CPI tomorrow.
• Copper prices were indecisive during the APAC session, reflecting mixed sentiment in China, with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite diverging overnight. However, early positive sentiment from Europe keeps prices underpinned, and offsets some of the weakness from the APAC session, providing support to the red metal. 3M LME Copper is currently trading around USD 13.3k/t in a narrow 13,2k-13.339k/t range.
• Vitol CEO said Russia and Iran's oil buyers are reaching for Western supply.
• IEA cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850k BPD (prev. 930k BPD); cuts 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.4mln BPD (prev. 2.5mln BPD). Lowers 2026 forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth to 1.2mln BPD (prev. 1.3mln BPD). Escalating geopolitical tensions, snowstorms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market.
• Goldman Sachs sees a boost to mine supply growth slowing considerably in 2027/28 which would the ex-China market into deficit.
• Saudi crude oil supply to China is set to rise to at least 53mln barrels in March, according to sources.
• US Energy Secretary Wright states Venezuela oil quarantine is essentially over, calling it a historic pivot, but noted political prisoners remain an issue.
• US President Trump directs Department of Energy to issue funds to coal plants in states including West Virginia and Ohio.
• Venezuela's interim President Rodriguez said hopes relationship with US progresses without obstacles; talked with US Energy Secretary about deals on oil, gas, power, and mining; look forward to move forward as fast as possible.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine's Air Force warns of a likely launch of Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile.
• An oil refinery has reportedly caught fire in Russia's Komi due to a drone attack, RIA reported.
• Russia warns it will retaliate if Europe tries to create military capabilities against it, according to Al Arabiya.
• Witnesses reported explosions in Ukraine's capital of Kyiv.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Turkish top diplomat said US and Iran are showing flexibility on a nuclear deal, according to FT.

Geopolitics: Other

• South Korean MPs say North Korea is accelerating its program to develop and manufacture drones based on experience from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, citing the spy agency.
• North Korea is said to be developing a submarine that can carry 10 submarine-launched ballistic missile, according to an MP citing South Korea's spy agency. North Korea-Russia collaboration excludes modern tech and nuclear programs. North Korea seeks to improve relations despite dissatisfaction with China.
• Sounds of explosions at the US base in the countryside of Al-Hasakah, Syria, due to the explosion of mines, Al Arabiya reported citing sources; details light.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said US wants no conflict and no military action for the Americas. US is working seven days a week to issue new licenses.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ve been energised by a leadership offsite for the last couple of days, so if members of my team are reading this, hopefully I won't get it wrong and end up with team meetings today that resemble something from “The Office”. While I was in learning mode, markets put in a mixed performance yesterday, as investors weighed up a very strong US jobs report, growing geopolitical risks and a fresh decline in software stocks. On the upside, that jobs report included the biggest jump for nonfarm payrolls in over a year, which led to growing confidence that the US economy had kept up its momentum into 2026. But the print also solidified existing concerns about inflation, which got further support thanks to another jump in oil prices amidst mounting speculation about a potential US strike on Iran. Finally, today sees a symbolically important EU leaders summit on strengthening the single market. Mario Draghi is attending and his competitiveness paper will no doubt be heavily referred to. While firm commitments are unlikely, it’s an incredibly important meeting on the future roadmap for Europe so all eyes will be on what progress is made.

That jobs report was the big story yesterday, with the release proving much stronger than expected. The headline was that nonfarm payrolls grew by +130k in January (vs. +65k expected), marking their biggest monthly jump since December 2024. Indeed, it was a big contrast from fears earlier this week about a low number, as Kevin Hassett had warned on Monday that markets should expect “slightly lower jobs numbers”, albeit without specifics about when this might be. Then on top of the upside payrolls surprise, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% expected), so the print very much leant in a more hawkish direction. Admittedly, there were some negative revisions to previous months, with the 2025 total payrolls gain revised down from +584k to +181k. But we already knew the downward revisions were coming, so markets were much more focused on the strong print for January rather than the backward-looking content.

With the jobs report coming in strongly, markets moved to price out the chance of rapid Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the chance of a rate cut in one of Chair Powell’s final two meetings (March and April) plunged from 47% to 23%. And looking at the full year, the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting fell -7.1bps on the day to 53bps. In turn, that more hawkish profile led to a clear bear flattening in the Treasury curve, with the 2yr yield (+5.8bps) up to 3.51%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.0bps) moved up to 4.17%.

Whilst Treasuries saw a clear selloff, equities saw a more mixed performance, with the S&P 500 (-0.005%) ultimately closing less than a basis point lower on the day. Initially, the index opened strongly, boosted by the very strong jobs report. However, there was then a fresh decline in software stocks, with that component of the S&P 500 down -2.58% on the day, including strong declines for IBM (-6.50%), ServiceNow (-5.54%), Workday (-5.66%) and Salesforce (-4.37%). Financial services (-1.35%) were under pressure on two fronts. First, AI-disruption fears weighed on asset managers, with names like Charles Schwab (-3.83%), Invesco (-3.11%), and T Rowe Price (-2.95%) underperforming. Second, the bitcoin selloff also led crypto-adjacent stocks to weaken, with Coinbase (-5.73%), Block (-6.09%), and Robinhood (-8.91%) among the worst performers in the index. So those losses offset advances for some of the more defensive sectors like energy (+2.59%) and consumer staples (+1.20%), leaving the overall index fairly flat.

In the background, oil prices continued to climb yesterday as fears mounted about an escalation over Iran. In terms of the latest, President Trump met Israeli PM Netanyahu at the White House yesterday, where President Trump said he “insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a Deal can be consummated.” The President later posted to social media that “Last time Iran decided that they were better off not making a Deal, and they were hit with Midnight Hammer — That did not work well for them. Hopefully this time they will be more reasonable and responsible.” So by the close, Brent crude was up +0.87% to $69.40/bbl, and this morning it’s up another +0.25% to $69.57/bbl.

Earlier in Europe, most assets had seen a relatively stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.10%) just about closing at a fresh record. That was driven by a strong gain for UK equities, and the FTSE 100 (+1.14%) was also at a new record of its own. But it was a different story across much of the continent, with the DAX (-0.53%), the CAC 40 (-0.18%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.62%) all losing ground. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, there was a more consistent rally, but UK gilts were once again leading the way, with 10yr gilt yields down -3.0bps on the day. Otherwise, those on 10yr bunds (-1.6bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-1.6bps) all fell back slightly too.

Overnight in Asia, markets are looking much more positive again after the weak close on Wall Street yesterday. The KOSPI (+2.64%) is leading the way, on course for another record high, and the Nikkei (+0.25%) is also on course for a record as Japanese markets returned from Wednesday’s holiday. However, equities in mainland China have been more steady, with the CSI 300 (+0.04%) only posting a modest advance, whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.01%) has slipped back very slightly. Meanwhile in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng (-1.15%) has posted larger declines. But looking forward, US equity futures are pointing to a stronger start, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.31%.

Looking forward, today will also see EU leaders gather in Belgium for a summit on strengthening the single market. They’ll be joined by former ECB President Mario Draghi, who wrote a report on EU competitiveness, and we heard from several EU leaders yesterday as well. For instance, French President Macron said that if the EU wanted to “transform the productivity and competitiveness”, then “the only way is to have common issuance of debt”.  Separately, German Chancellor Merz said that there should be “bold” steps from the EU to reverse its decline, saying the EU should “deregulate every sector”. Our economists also have a preview for the summit here.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK’s Q4 GDP reading, the US weekly initial jobless claims, and existing home sales for January.  Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Cipollone, Radev, Stournaras, Lane and Nagel. Otherwise, EU leaders will be meeting today in Belgium.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 08:29

EU Seeks To Close Russia Crypto Loopholes In New Sanctions

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

The European Union is finalizing a new package of sanctions aimed at closing loopholes that officials say have allowed Russia to use cryptocurrency to circumvent existing restrictions.

The EU is seeking to “ban all cryptocurrency transactions with Russia” as part of the upcoming 20th sanctions package, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

Unlike previous efforts targeting Russia-linked entities spun out of already sanctioned platforms, the newly proposed measures are broader and are designed to close Russia’s crypto loophole entirely.

“Any further listing of individual crypto asset service providers […] is therefore likely to result in the set-up of new ones to circumvent those listings,” according to an internal European Commission document on the proposed sanctions, cited by the FT.

Brussels seeks total shutdown of Russia-linked crypto channels

While the new sanctions package is still being finalized and is expected to be adopted on Feb. 24, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last week that the measures would target 20 additional Russian regional banks, as well as several banks in third countries.

Among the foreign lenders, the EU has proposed sanctioning two Kyrgyz banks, Keremet and OJSC Capital Bank of Central Asia, along with banks in Laos and Tajikistan, Reuters reported on Monday. If approved, the listed institutions would be barred from transactions with EU individuals and companies.

“In order to ensure that sanctions achieve their intended effect [the EU] prohibits to engage with any crypto asset service provider, or to make use of any platform allowing the transfer and exchange of crypto assets that is established in Russia,” the Commission’s document reportedly states.

Sanctioned A7A5 emerged as one of the largest non-dollar stablecoins in 2025

The report suggests that the measures may target Russia-linked payments platform A7 and its ruble-pegged stablecoin, A7A5. The operator has denied facilitating sanctions evasion, calling such claims politicized and unsupported by evidence.

Despite facing multiple rounds of sanctions, A7A5 emerged as one of the fastest-growing non-dollar stablecoins by market value in 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap and DefiLlama.

Top five largest non-USD stablecoins by market capitalization. Source: DefiLlama

Some analysts, however, questioned the reliability of the token’s reported activity.

Blockchain analytics company Global Ledger said it identified patterns consistent with wash trading that may have inflated A7A5’s volumes and simulated demand. Global Ledger also expressed doubts about the EU’s ability to fully restrict crypto transactions involving Russia.

Analysts question whether EU can fully enforce crypto sanctions

“The EU’s recent move to impose a blanket ban on Russian crypto activity — specifically targeting the A7A5 stablecoin — highlights a fundamental misunderstanding of decentralized liquidity,” Global Ledger co-founder and CEO Lex Fisun told Cointelegraph.

Fisun said the holders of tokens such as A7A5 can swap them into globally traded stablecoins through autonomous onchain liquidity pools, without relying on centralized intermediaries that conduct compliance checks.

Once assets move through large global exchanges and liquidity hubs, transaction histories can become increasingly difficult to trace, he said, adding:

“At this stage, distinguishing these funds from legitimate market activity becomes a technical impossibility […]. For European exchanges to enforce such a ban, they would essentially have to block all flows from major global trading hubs, a move that would paralyze the legitimate crypto market.”

While sanctions may succeed in cutting Russian entities off from regulated European platforms, Fisun said decentralized infrastructure remains resistant to direct censorship, making a complete technical blockade unlikely.

The developments come as Russia advances domestic legislation on digital assets. On Tuesday, Russian lawmakers passed a law on its third reading establishing the procedure for freezing and confiscating digital currency.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 07:20

These Are The Countries That Earn The Most From Tourism

Each year, the global tourism economy generates trillions in revenue as travelers explore new destinations and revisit old favorites.

According to UN Tourism data, international tourist receipts reached a total of $1.74 trillion in 2024, which is up 14% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Visual Capitalist creator Iswardi Ishak mapped the countries that benefit most from this spending, revealing which economies gain the most from foreign visitors.

Unsurprisingly, the U.S. leads by a wide margin, earning $215 billion from international visitors.

Europe dominates the top ranks, with Spain ($106.5 billion), the UK ($82.5 billion), France ($77 billion), and Italy ($58.7 billion) all drawing in major tourism income.

Japan ($54.7 billion), China ($39.7 billion), and Thailand ($42.7 billion) round out Asia’s biggest earners.

United Arab Emirates stands out, generating $45.5B, a number that rivals Europe’s tourism powerhouses.

Here’s a closer look at the data:

Country/Territory International Tourist Receipts (2024, USD Billions) United States of America 215.0 Spain 106.5 United Kingdom 82.5 France 77.0 Italy 58.7 United Arab Emirates 57.0 Türkiye 56.3 Japan 54.7 Australia 52.0 Canada 49.9 Thailand 42.7 Saudi Arabia 41.0 Germany 40.1 China 39.7 India 35.0 Mexico 33.0 Macau 31.7 Portugal 30.0 Austria 26.3 Singapore 23.8 Greece 23.4 Netherlands 22.6 Hong Kong 22.5 Switzerland 22.3 Malaysia 20.8 Indonesia 16.7 South Korea 16.7 Croatia 16.2 Egypt 15.3 Poland 15.0 Vietnam 12.2 Denmark 11.3 Morocco 11.3 Dominican Republic 11.0 Sweden 10.7 New Zealand 9.8 Belgium 9.4 Philippines 9.3 Czech Republic 9.1 Colombia 8.7 Qatar 8.4 Hungary 8.1 Ireland 7.9 Norway 7.8 Russia 7.6 Luxembourg 7.5 Iraq 7.4 Brazil 7.3 Jordan 7.2 South Africa 6.4 Panama 6.0 Puerto Rico 6.0 Romania 5.7 Costa Rica 5.5 Albania 5.4 Argentina 5.0 Maldives 4.8 Lebanon 4.7 Georgia 4.4 Bulgaria 4.3 Jamaica 4.3 Finland 4.2 Cyprus 4.0 Tanzania 3.9 Peru 3.7 Bahrain 3.7 Cambodia 3.6 Slovenia 3.6 El Salvador 3.5 Iceland 3.2 Uzbekistan 3.2 Chile 3.2 Sri Lanka 3.2 Serbia 3.1 Aruba 3.0 Andorra 2.9 Tunisia 2.9 Malta 2.8 Kazakhstan 2.6 Oman 2.6 Armenia 2.5 Israel 2.3 Kuwait 2.3 Uruguay 2.2 Azerbaijan 2.0 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.0 Lithuania 2.0 Mauritius 2.0 Ecuador 1.8 Slovakia 1.7 Guatemala 1.7 Estonia 1.6 Montenegro 1.6 Uganda 1.5 Latvia 1.4 Barbados 1.4 Laos 1.3 Cuba 1.3 Saint Lucia 1.3 Ethiopia 1.2 Ghana 1.2 Fiji 1.1 Ukraine 1.0 Kyrgyzstan 0.96 Seychelles 0.93 Zambia 0.90 Antigua and Barbuda 0.88 Moldova 0.82 Belize 0.81 Honduras 0.79 Paraguay 0.77 Pakistan 0.75 Bolivia 0.74 Mongolia 0.64 Nepal 0.63 Republic of Macedonia 0.62 Botswana 0.59 Rwanda 0.58 Nicaragua 0.51 Bermuda 0.51 Bangladesh 0.44 The Gambia 0.44 Namibia 0.43 Grenada 0.36 Nigeria 0.30 Samoa 0.23 Mozambique 0.21 Bhutan 0.20 Zimbabwe 0.20 Anguilla 0.19 Brunei 0.13 Algeria 0.13 Palestine 0.13 Dominica 0.09 São Tomé and Príncipe 0.07 East Timor 0.06 Malawi 0.06 Djibouti 0.05 Haiti 0.04 Suriname 0.04 Solomon Islands 0.03 Tajikistan 0.02 Angola 0.02 Eswatini 0.02 Montserrat 0.01 Lesotho 0.01 Why Some Countries Earn More Than Others

Tourism receipts depend on several factors: not just the number of visitors, but how much each tourist spends. The U.S., for example, combines high visitor volumes with high average spending. Meanwhile, countries like Maldives or Jamaica may have smaller absolute totals but are far more dependent on tourism as a share of GDP.

In Europe, cultural heritage, high-speed transportation, and proximity to major markets help countries rack up significant tourist spending. Spain, which now outpaces even France, offers an unusually wide range of tourism experiences, from world‑class beaches and island archipelagos to historic cities, gastronomy, and cultural heritage. This diversity helps attract visitors year‑round and from multiple source markets. As a result, the country became the most-visited nation in the EU in 2024.

Tourism in Conflict Zones: The Ukraine Example

One of the more surprising figures in the dataset is Ukraine’s $1B in international tourism receipts. Despite the ongoing war, some regions of the country, particularly in the west, have remained relatively stable and open to humanitarian, business, and diaspora-related travel. Ukrainians returning to visit family and international volunteers have contributed to tourism-like spending, even under extraordinary conditions.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 06:55

Welcome To The 'EUSSR': Unpopular European Regimes Grasping For Power Crack Down On Dissent

Authored by Robert Williams via The Gatestone Institute,

Governing elites in Europe, in what increasingly appears to be the EUSSR (European Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) race to the bottom, have been growing ever more unpopular. Disapproval ratings are skyrocketing. In France, 77% of the public disapprove of President Emmanuel Macron. In Britain, 68% disapprove of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In Germany, 64% disapprove of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and in Spain, 61% have had it up to here with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

In other parts of Europe, such as Germany and France, all sorts of pseudo-legal acrobatics are being generated to prevent political opponents from running for high office (such as here and here).

So, if you are an unpopular regime desperately clinging to power, what do you do? It's easy! Iran's ayatollahs, China's Xi Jinping, Russia's Vladimir Lenin, Josef Stalin and Vladimir Putin could tell you. You simply crack down -- more than ever -- on free speech and dissent!

In supposed democracies, this latest "benefit " to your people - cracking down on dissent "democratically" -- means using technology rather than firepower to crush freedom of speech.

Concerning age limits for children, there is a valid argument to be made that leaving the faces of a generation staring at screens all day appears to be impairing not only their education but also their ability to socialize with anyone not an AI chimera, algorithmed to agree narcotically with everything uploaded, including the best ways to how to put their young, ostensibly deficient lives to an end.

As the founder and CEO of Telegram, Pavel Durov wrote on X:

Today, Telegram notified all its users in Spain with this alert:

Pedro Sánchez's government is pushing dangerous new regulations that threaten your internet freedoms. Announced just yesterday, these measures could turn Spain into a surveillance state under the guise of "protection." Here's why they're a red flag for free speech and privacy:

1. Ban on social media for under-16s with mandatory age verification: This isn't just about kids—it requires platforms to use strict checks, like needing IDs or biometrics....

⚠️Danger: This will force over-censorship—platforms will delete anything remotely controversial to avoid risks, silencing political dissent, journalism, and everyday opinions. Your voice could be next if it challenges the status quo....

⚠️Danger: Governments will dictate what you see, burying opposing views and creating echo chambers controlled by the state. Free exploration of ideas? Gone—replaced by curated propaganda....

⚠️Danger: Vague definitions of "hate" could label criticism of the government as divisive, leading to shutdowns or fines. This can be a tool for suppressing opposition. These aren't safeguards; they're steps toward total control. We've seen this playbook before—governments weaponizing "safety" to censor critics....

Demand transparency and fight for your rights. Share this widely—before it's too late.

Durov, incidentally, born in the Soviet Union in 1984 – of all Orwellian dates! – left Russia in 2014 after Russia's FSB security service demanded that his company, VKontakte, hand over the personal data of Ukrainian Euromaidan protesters and opposition figures, and for refusing to censor posts on his site.

In Spain, in addition to an arguably justified ban on social media for people under 16 years old, Sanchez's government is introducing a legislative package consisting of five additions to censor speech online.

First, social media platform executives will not just be fined for failing to remove "illegal, hateful or harmful" content from their platforms in a timely way – they will also now face criminal liability, including possible imprisonment. As Durov warns:

"This will force over-censorship—platforms will delete anything remotely controversial to avoid risks, silencing political dissent, journalism, and everyday opinions. Your voice could be next if it challenges the status quo."

"Sanchez," Elon Musk said more bluntly, "is the true fascist totalitarian."

Second, amplifying "illegal" or "harmful" content through the algorithms will become a crime.

"We will turn algorithmic manipulation and amplification of illegal content into a new criminal offense," Sanchez said.

"No more hiding behind code. No more pretending technology is neutral."

Third, according to Sanchez:

"We will implement a hate and polarization footprint system to track, quantify, and expose how digital platforms fuel division and amplify hate. For too long, hate has been treated as invisible and untraceable, but we will change that."

The problem, of course, is that usually "hate" is never defined -- meaning that anything and everything can be labeled "hate" and often is. Judgments about what constitutes "hate" become entirely subjective and run the danger of existing exclusively "in the eye of the beholder."

In Sudan, for instance, a British teacher at an elementary school was sentenced to 40 lashes and a term in prison for having allowed her students to name a teddy bear Muhammad. In Iran today, people who protested against the regime are being sentenced to death for "waging war against God."

The United States officially enshrines freedom of speech in the First Amendment to the Constitution:

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

US courts have ruled that only child pornography and immediate, direct and credible threats, as well as a few other limitations, are banned.

Some governing elites in Spain apparently want to ban X there altogether.

"The next battle should be aimed at limiting... and likely banning Twitter," Minister of Youth and Children Sira Rego stated.

Spain's Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, announced that she has left X and that whoever remains on X "is feeding hate policies."

France is planning a similar move, "to ban minors from Instagram and TikTok," and Germany is also seriously considering introducing such a ban as well. Germany's Christian Democratic Union — the conservative party led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the largest in the governing coalition — is reportedly set to discuss the issue at its national party congress on February 20-21, 2026.

Denmark, Greece and Britain are also in various stages of either introducing or seriously considering banning X, and European authorities are simultaneously seeking to come up with other ways to close down X.

At the beginning of February, French authorities and European Union police agency Europol raided X's offices in Paris, over "suspected abuse of algorithms, plus allegations related to deepfake images and wider concerns over posts generated by the platform's AI chatbot, Grok," according to Time Magazine.

According to The Telegraph, the raid "was triggered in the first place by an MP in Emmanuel Macron's centrist party complaining, after Musk's purchase, that X had 'reduced diversity of voices', and a separate complaint that the site hosted 'nauseating political content'".

In Britain, according to The Telegraph:

"[T]he Information Commissioner's Office launched an investigation into deepfakes on X, running in parallel to the Ofcom inquiry into the platform. Liz Kendall, the Technology Secretary, has said the Government will give its 'full backing' should the watchdog decide to block access to the site in the UK and accused those opposing the measures of allying with 'those who think the creation and publication of sexually manipulated images of women and children is acceptable'."

All this is in addition to a €120 million fine that the European Commission has imposed on X under its "Delete. Silence. Abolish" Digital Services Act.

To the European governments that refuse to acknowledge that many of their citizens are sick and tired of their repressive policies, when the ayatollahs slaughter their citizens in Iran, it is not a pressing problem, but banning X is of the highest priority.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 06:30

"Winner Takes All": UBS Speaks With Swiss Watch Industry Insider On "Stabilizing Market"

The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks secondary-market prices for the 50 most-traded watches by value, has been ticking higher for about a year, rebounding from a multi-year slump that followed the Covid-era luxury watch mania fueled by cheap interest rates and easy money.

Our last note on the secondary watch market was about a month ago, covering the rebound in prices from a 2025 low (read here) and the shifting tastes of Gen Z collectors (or at least the ones with money).

To add more color to the Swiss watch cycle, UBS analysts, led by Zuzanna Pusz, spoke with a veteran industry insider.

Pusz's key takeaway from the conversation with the expert is that the industry has "entered a stabilization phase following the post-Covid boom and the subsequent normalization period marked by pronounced weakness in China."

Here's the full takeaway that gives readers more guidance on what to expect from the luxury timepiece industry this year:

Stabilising industry momentum, but outlook remains uncertain

Earlier today, we hosted a call with a seasoned Swiss watch industry expert to discuss the latest industry trends and brand dynamics. In summary, the expert believes the industry has entered a stabilisation phase following the post-Covid boom and the subsequent normalisation period marked by pronounced weakness in China. While he expects 2026 to be a better year than 2025, it remains uncertain whether growth will return across the board given ongoing macro-political uncertainty. Market trends remain volatile and divergent: (1) US continues to show strength; (2) Europe faces uncertain demand, heavily influenced by tourism flows and FX; and (3) Asia lacks broad-based momentum, with China stabilising but Japan weakening. Overall, the call reinforced our view that the luxury recovery is still in its early stages and that investors should remain selective. LVMH and CFR remain our top picks, while Swatch and Pandora continue to be rated Sell.

"Winner takes all" amid polarised brand performance

On brand performance, the expert highlighted continued market share gains among the outperformers, including Rolex, albeit with shorter waiting lists. He also noted the rising popularity of "microbrands", which are gaining visibility thanks to lower barriers to entry and growing "wrist/voice" share. Regarding Swatch Group specifically, the expert did not identify any clear idiosyncratic drivers behind the improving H2 sales momentum (c. FX +5% vs. Swiss watch exports -3%), aside from positive traction at Breguet and the group's ability to more easily supply retailers amid tariff concerns (inventory >100% of sales) compared to stock constrained peers. Nevertheless, he also pointed out the likely distortion of the FHS Swiss watch export statistics due to tariff-related volatility in today's context. Lastly, he expects continued consolidation within the retail landscape, with publicly listed groups likely to optimise their brand portfolios and refocus on more efficient assets.

Growing appreciation for luxury watches among younger cohorts

The expert also pointed to a structural shift in the consumer base, driven by the sustained entry of younger buyers into the watch category - despite long concerns that younger generations are moving away from traditional wristwatches. This cohort, initially drawn in through social media, sneaker culture, the MoonSwatch phenomenon, and reselling dynamics, played a key role in both the Covid-era surge and the subsequent normalisation as speculative behaviour faded. Despite this volatility, the expert views this demographic shift as durable, with younger consumers now firmly embedded in the market and representing a long-term tailwind for the industry. He also noted a modest increase in women's self-purchases, though not yet at a scale that materially reshapes overall demand. When asked whether the appeal to younger buyers might be linked to the rise in metal prices and a perceived "store of value" dynamic, he stressed that this narrative applies mainly to vintage models rather than modern watches. Looking at brand implications of recent "fashion" trends in the category, he reiterated his positive stance on Cartier and a potential improvement in dynamics for Piaget (both Richemont, Buy).

Earlier Tuesday, shares of French luxury group Kering jumped as much as 14% in Paris trading, the biggest intraday move in almost six years, after better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales at its Gucci unit. The UBS Luxury basket (UBXELUX) rose nearly 2%, driven largely by hopes of a turnaround at the luxury house. 

At UBS, analyst Justinus Steinhorst told clients that Kering's results "boosted hopes of a turnaround," lifting the UBXELUX basket.

From luxury watches stabilizing to early signs of traction at Gucci, the bigger question is whether the luxury industry as a whole is finally turning.

Professional subscribers can learn more about the consumer trends on our new Marketdesk.ai portal​​​​.

Zero Hedge Thu, 02/12/2026 - 05:45

Meet The Meta Supplier Behind Ray-Ban Smart Glasses

For some time, we've been on the right side of this call: Meta's smart glasses are the clear winner versus Apple Vision Pro for one simple reason: they're built for daily life. The value proposition is obvious too. They're priced only a notch above high-end Ray-Bans, yet drastically cheaper than the goofy-looking $3,500 Vision Pro headset.

Let's take a step back to December 2024:

• Meta Smart Ray-Ban Glasses Big Winner? Goldman Finds App Downloads Hit 200% YoY

One of our focuses has been Meta's smart glasses supply chain. That work highlighted how Meta reportedly took a nearly 3% stake in EssilorLuxottica, the world's largest eyewear maker and the parent of Ray-Ban and Oakley, in a deal valued at around $3.5 billion last summer.

The investment only made sense at the time, with research firm Sensor Data showing increased downloads of the Meta app that implied surging demand for the smart glasses, while Apple Vision Pro slid into the abyss.

Fast forward to today. EssilorLuxottica reported fourth-quarter sales rose 18% (constant currency) to 7.6 billion euros, well above the roughly 11% increase Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg expected.

Growth was driven by surging demand for Meta's Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses and Oakley smart glasses. The company sold more than 7 million units last year.  

Full-year 2024 adjusted operating income rose 6.8% to 4.5 billion euros, but the adjusted margin was 16%, about 70 basis points lower than 2023 (constant exchange rates), with pressure intensifying in the second half.

"Looking ahead to the next five years, we are committed to delivering solid revenue growth, with the adjusted operating profit's pace broadly aligned," CEO Francesco Milleri and Deputy CEO Paul Du Saillant wrote in a statement.

Since the Meta Ray-Bans launched in September 2023, shares of EssilorLuxottica in Europe have nearly doubled, though they've more recently pulled back about 21% from the high reached in late 2025.

Last month, smart glasses took center stage at CES 2026 in Las Vegas.

Goldman analyst Jerry Shen recently published a detailed view of the AI and AR glasses supply chain, breaking it down by the companies that supply the critical components behind these devices (read report).

Vision Pro can't do this...

I Cant Believe This Dude Recorded This Whole Thing On Meta Rayban's. pic.twitter.com/ToHwfX5Wlp

— Kagan.Dunlap (@Kagan_M_Dunlap) February 10, 2026

Tim Cook blew it with Vision Pro ... Meta takes the win.

Apple cooked.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 04:15

Erik Prince, Israeli Advisers Operated With Congolese Special Forces

Via The Libertarian Institute

American mercenary Erik Price and Israeli soldiers operated with Congolese special forces battalions. Congo has been fighting against multiple rebel groups. 

According to Reuters, the Israeli advisors' role is limited to training, and Erik Prince is providing drone support. The outlet reports that the assistance helped Congo take a city back from two rebel groups, the Congo River Alliance (AFC) and the March 23 Movement (M23).

Reuters: Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, attends a police and military presentation, in Guayaquil, Ecuador on April 5, 2025.

A senior Congolese defense official explained that Kinshasa "needed help recapturing Uvira and pulled in every resource they could."

They added that the presence of Americans on the frontlines is keeping the AFC and M23 from launching new attacks.

Prince's firm is also helping to secure Kinshasa and improve tax revenue collection. Sources told Reuters that Americans have been pulled off the frontlines, but could return. 

Prince is a notorious American mercenary. His first firm, Blackwater, is responsible for the Nisour Square massacre, which left 17 Iraqis dead.

Prince later rebranded and sold Blackwater. He is a long-time ally of the US president, and the men responsible for murdering the Iraqi civilians were ultimately pardoned by Trump during his first term.

However, Prince has formed other private security firms that have conducted operations around the globe. His company, Vectus Global, has a contract with the Haitian government to conduct anti-drone operations. 

Several civilians have been killed by drones in Haiti, including eight children at a birthday party. According to the scant details in The Guardian on the last September strike:

At least eight children were killed and six others seriously injured in a drone attack on a birthday party in Haiti’s capital where an alleged gang leader was distributing gifts, according to relatives and activists.

The explosions happened Saturday night in Cité Soleil, which is controlled by Viv Ansanm, a powerful gang coalition which the US has designated as a foreign terrorist organization.

One of its leaders, Jimmy Chérizier , best known as Barbecue, vowed to avenge the attacks, with a total of at least 13 people killed, according to residents.

Although it’s unclear if those strikes were conducted by Prince or the US-installed in Port-au-Prince.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 03:30

Japan Restarts World's Largest Nuclear Plant, 15 Years After Fukushima Shutdown

Japan resumed operations at the world’s largest nuclear power plant this week, marking a key development in the country’s return to nuclear energy almost 15 years after the Fukushima disaster.

The reactor is located at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant, in Japan’s Niigata Prefecture.

It is the world’s first nuclear power plant to use an advanced boiling water reactor.

Panoramic view of units 5-7 of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant.

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa’s total capacity is 8.2 GW, which is enough to power a few million homes.

The site is operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), which also ran the Fukushima plant.

While the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa facility was not damaged by the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, all seven of its reactors have remained offline since the accident amid tightened safety requirements and public scrutiny.

We noted back in December, Niigata prefecture’s assembly session vote revealed the community’s deep divisions over the restart, in spite of lawmakers giving their backing to Hanazumi.

“This is nothing other than a political settlement that does not take into account the will of the Niigata residents,” an assembly member told fellow lawmakers during the session.

Around 300 protesters gathered outside the assembly holding billboards with signs expressing their opposition to the resumption in operations, such as  “No Nukes” and “Support Fukushima.”

“I am truly angry from the bottom of my heart,” Kenichiro Ishiyama, a 77-year-old protester from Niigata city, told reporters after the vote.

“If something was to happen at the plant, we would be the ones to suffer the consequences.”

Brought back to life on February 9, the reactor had been shut down for more than a decade. 

“We will continue to conduct integrity checks of the plant equipment under actual steam operating conditions, while fully and sincerely responding to inspections by the Nuclear Regulation Authority,” Tepco officials stated.

As interestingengineering.com reports, the 1,356-megawatt (MW) advanced boiling water reactor (ABWR) was restarted at 2pm local time with criticality confirmed just over an hour later at 3:20pm.

For clarity, criticality refers to the condition when a nuclear reactor is maintaining a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction.

“We will continue to demonstrate through our actions and results that we are making safety our top priority at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant,” Tepco representatives pointed out.

The reactor was first restarted in the evening of January 21.

However, according to the company, shortly after midnight on January 22, an alarm in the control rod monitoring system halted the withdrawal of one control rod.

As a result, the unit’s restart was suspended while an investigation into the cause of the alarm was carried out. Tepco said it intends to gradually raise the pressure inside the reactor once operations resume.

It will resume power generation and transmission on February 16.

As we previously detailed, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has expressed her support for nuclear restarts to counter the cost of imported fossil fuels, which account for 60–70 percent of the country’s total electricity generation.

Last year, Japan spent 10.7 trillion yen ($68 billion) on imported liquefied natural gas and coal, representing a tenth of the country’s total import costs.

Despite its declining population, Japan expects energy demand to rise over the next decade, due to the power needs of artificial intelligence (AI) data processing centers.

The country has set a target of doubling the portion of nuclear power in its electricity mix to 20 percent by 2040.

Japan’s top nuclear power operator, Kansai Electric Power, said in July it would begin conducting surveys for a reactor in western Japan, in what is planned to be the country’s first new plant since the Fukushima disaster.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 02:45

German MPs Shoot-Down Idea Of Paying WWII Reparations To Poland With Weapons

Via Remix News,

German politicians stress cooperation in the wake of the suggestion that Germany finance Polish armaments as reparations for World War II.

Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, had proposed that Germany provide Poland with military equipment, emphasizing that “Poland is a frontline state.”

Poland has been vocal in its demand for what it says amounts to €1.3 trillion in World War II reparations Germany must pay for the crimes, deaths, and massive property destruction caused by the 1939-1945 occupation. 

Despite some discussions, Germany has long maintained that Poland renounced all claims to reparations in 1953.

“From the Polish perspective, the issue of reparations remains unresolved,” he said in an interview for Die Welt, cited by wPolityce.

“What if Germany, recognizing Poland’s role as a frontline state, gave Warsaw a submarine, a frigate or a few tanks?” Ischinger asked.

German politicians and experts have since expressed their concerns with the idea.

Thomas Erndl, spokesman for the defense policy of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, told Die Welt that there was no need for this because a strong Bundeswehr protects not only Germany but also its allies.

“The brigade stationed in Lithuania is a visible sign of our solidarity as allies… If we all focus our efforts on rapidly expanding our military capabilities, and thus on guaranteeing our European security, historical sensitivity will play a subordinate role,” Erndl argued.

Adis Ahmetović, spokesman for foreign policy of the SPD parliamentary group, emphasized that gaining Poland’s trust can only come from a stronger foundation.

“Some of our partners, such as France and Poland, sometimes show reticence. Trust is not built through symbolic gestures like military donations, but through reliable and close cooperation. Therefore, it is essential to consistently deepen and further develop proven formats, such as the Weimar Triangle,” she said.

“We should not allow ourselves to be distracted, let alone exploited, in the process of building a common European defense, which all of Europe is waiting for,” added Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the Free Democratic Party, chairwoman of the European Parliament’s Defence Committee.

Agnieszka Brugger, spokeswoman for security policy of the Green Party parliamentary group in the Bundestag, seemed confused by the idea, stating, “Conflating such a strange idea with the very delicate and difficult issue of ‘reparations’ is not very helpful.”

“It seems a bit strange, and perhaps even paternalistic, to want to give weapons systems to a country that has been determinedly and successfully building one of NATO’s strongest conventional armed forces for years,” Professor Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich told Die Welt.

CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter noted: “We cannot buy ourselves out of our responsibility to defend Europe by simply giving up a few tanks.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 02:00

FTC Probing Pediatrician Group, Non-Profit Over Gender Dysphoria Treatments For Kids

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is examining statements from several organizations that have promoted drugs and surgeries for minors who believe they are a different gender, according to documents made public on Feb. 10.

FTC officials sent civil demands for documents to the American Academy of Pediatrics and World Professional Association of Transgender Health, documents posted online by the FTC show.

In the demands, dated Jan. 15, the FTC said officials are probing whether groups have “made, or assisted others in making, false or unsubstantiated representations or engaged in unfair practices in connection with the marketing and advertising of Pediatric Gender Dysphoria Treatment” in violation of federal law that bars people from engaging in deceptive practices affecting commerce and disseminating false advertisements.

Officials asked for each type of pediatric gender dysphoria treatment that the organizations advertised or promoted and information on financial relationships between the organizations and pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, or doctors involved in treating gender dysphoria.

They also want to know about the process for how the American Academy of Pediatrics developed its 2018 statement outlining its position on care for youth labeled as “transgender,” and how the World Professional Association of Transgender Health came up with its Standards of Care Version 8, which contains guidance for doctors contemplating giving children puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones, or performing surgeries on children questioning their gender.

FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson said in 2025 the agency would investigate whether the gender transition procedures were being offered under unfair or false claims.

The inquiry is looking into whether people, particularly children, were harmed by false or unsubstantiated claims about “gender-affirming care.”

The American Academy of Pediatrics said in a response to the civil demand, filed with the FTC, that the FTC was going beyond its scope in the probe and that the demand should be quashed.

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The World Professional Association of Transgender Health issued a similar response in a petition to revoke the demand directed to it.

The FTC and the two groups did not respond to requests for comment by publication time. If the petitions are turned down, the groups could turn to the courts.

Several other organizations sued the FTC over a separate probe.

A federal judge said in 2025 that the FTC’s civil demands in that investigation likely violated the constitutional rights of the organizations.

The new developments came after two medical groups, the American Society of Plastic Surgeons and the American Medical Association, said that there is uncertainty regarding treatments for gender dysphoria and that doctors should largely steer clear of surgeries on children.

They also followed a jury in New York finding two doctors liable for the breast removal surgery they supported and performed on a 16-year-old girl.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/11/2026 - 22:35

America's Top Restaurant Winner Slaps Diners With Mandatory Tip And Woke Lecture On Receipt

The top-rated restaurant in America (at least according to Food & Wine's 2025 pick) is now buried under a pile of one-star reviews after deciding to lecture diners on receipts about the supposedly "racist" history of tipping, while auto-adding a non-negotiable 20% service charge to every bill, SFGate reports.

A customer enters during a soft opening at Burdell in Oakland, Calif., on Sept. 6, 2023. The Michelin Guide restaurant recently received an onslaught of poor reviews following a viral Reddit post.  Douglas Zimmerman/SFGATE

The fury began with a now-deleted Reddit post of the woke note tacked onto receipts at Burdell, the Oakland soul-food spot that's become a progressive darling with Michelin nods and critical acclaim.

“Tipping in the US has an ugly past, allowing the continuation of underpaid labor,” the receipt lectured. “We don’t like that history. Included on your check is a 20% Service Charge which we use to pay hourly staff a consistent and livable wage, not dependent on archaic tipping customs or chance. No need to add anything else. Thank you!”

Predictably, the internet did what it does best by review-bombing the place on Yelp with complaints about everything from terrible food to claims of hidden fees, despite the restaurant insisting the charge is disclosed on menus and its website. Some diners felt ambushed by the mandatory add-on and the moralizing footnote.

Chef-owner Geoff Davis has since scrambled to find an excuse for all the hate, landing on claiming that mainly non-locals are simply jumping on a culture-war bandwagon.

“Most of the people who left reviews are from outside our region and community,” Davis told SFGate. “They’re using this as a crusade against Oakland, DEI, and the moment that we’re in. People are upset about a lot of things in America right now.”

“It blows my mind that there are so many restaurants that employ this model, and we’ve been doing it for so long with no surprise for the most part,” he added.

Davis previously faced backlash over his sky-high prices, saying that it's an “uphill fight” to operate a soul-food restaurant because of America's past, according to SFGate.

“It is what it is, and as Americans, we have to understand that racism is part of our core identity as a country. All we can do is do the best work that we can,” Davis told the news outlet.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/11/2026 - 22:10

Local Police Are Finally Arresting Anti-ICE Agitators In Minnesota

Something changed in Minneapolis, and fast.

Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons told lawmakers during a House Homeland Security Committee hearing on Tuesday that local police arrested 54 anti-ICE protesters overnight, a development that would have been almost unthinkable just a few weeks ago. During his testimony, Lyons described a noticeable shift on the ground as immigration enforcement operations continue in the city.

Minneapolis Police officer William Martin stands outside burning buildings near Lake Street in Minneapolis, Minnesota, following protests and property damage surrounding the police killing of George Floyd. Photo by Tony Webster/Minnesota Reformer. 

For weeks, Minneapolis had been a flashpoint. Demonstrators swarmed federal agents. Officers were filmed, heckled, and in some cases assaulted while trying to carry out what Lyons described as “targeted, intelligence-driven enforcement operation[s].” Instead of focusing on apprehending criminal illegal aliens, agents were stuck navigating angry crowds, something they weren’t trained to do.

That appears to be changing.

Under questioning from Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Lyons confirmed that protests have cooled and ICE agents are once again able to concentrate on their core mission. “We’ve seen a de-escalation in the fact that the protests, while they still go on, have subsided, and ICE has been allowed to do their targeted, intelligence-driven enforcement operation,” Lyons said.

The key detail was who made the arrests. According to Lyons, the 54 protesters were taken into custody by local authorities. “ICE officers did not have to be engaged in that,” he told the committee.

That line spoke volumes.

For much of the recent unrest, ICE agents were left in a precarious position. McCaul pointed to what he described as a surge in hostility fueled by overheated rhetoric from Democrats about ICE. He noted “rhetoric on the left led to over a thousand percent increase in assaults on ICE officers” and “an increase of over eight thousand death threats to them.”

Those numbers help explain why federal agents found themselves pulled into crowd-control situations they were never meant to handle.

“Your officers are not trained to effectuate crowd control,” McCaul pointed out. “They are trained to move in surgically, go in and remove these dangerous, violent criminals from the United States of America.”

McCaul argued that former Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino’s leadership was the problem. He noted that under his watch, the situation deteriorated to the point where two shooting deaths occurred amid the chaos, and coordination between federal and local authorities broke down, which McCaul described as “a perfect storm.”

McCaul described Homan as “a consummate professional, law enforcement professional,” and made it very clear he supports President Trump’s move to replace Bovino with Homan. And based on Lyons’ testimony, the impact of the change has been immediate.

McCaul outlined what he sees as a return to basics: targeted enforcement actions, better coordination with state and local law enforcement on crowd control, renewed emphasis on ICE detainers, body cameras for agents, and an end to roving interior patrols in major cities. McCaul argued that patrol-style tactics belong at the border, and that Homan is “returning to the original mission of ICE.”

.@RepMcCaul says he believes Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino's presence in Minneapolis "escalated the situation" in Minneapolis.

With Homan's arrival, McCaul says order has been restored.

Acting ICE Director responds, saying that since Homan's arrival, protests have… pic.twitter.com/dajDyOQBBn

— Jennie Taer (@JennieSTaer) February 10, 2026

The 54 arrests in Minneapolis mark a turning point. Local authorities are finally stepping in to handle protesters who try to obstruct federal operations. That shift lets ICE agents focus on apprehending violent offenders instead of fending off crowds. 

Last week, Homan revealed that, thanks to cooperation with local law enforcement, he was pulling 700 federal agents out of Minnesota.

"We currently have an unprecedented number of [Minnesota] counties communicating with us now and allowing ICE to take custody of illegal aliens before they hit the streets," Homan said.

The change in leadership and tactics is clearly paying off. There are fewer clashes, fewer distractions, and a clearer chain of responsibility between federal officers and local police.

If this trajectory holds, Minneapolis may offer a preview of how the administration intends to carry out immigration enforcement nationwide: tightly focused operations, visible coordination, and a firm line against interference.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/11/2026 - 19:40

India's Coal Use Could Double By 2050

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

India’s coal demand could more than double by 2050 from current levels under current policies, a new report by NITI Aayog, the policy think tank of the Indian government, showed on Tuesday.

Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), coal demand in India is forecast to rise even through 2070, according to the projections.

In this scenario, long-term demand could more than double to 2.615 billion tons by 2050, up from 1.256 billion tons in 2025, the think tank’s analysis found.

If India keeps the current policies, coal demand will be higher even in 2070 compared to 2025 levels.  

The share of coal is set to drop from 73% in 2025 to 47% in 2070, thanks to the rise of renewable energy.

This suggests that coal will still be king in India if current policies are kept.  

Even in the net-zero scenario (for India, the net-zero goal is 2070), coal demand will rise to 1.827 billion tons by 2050, up from 1.256 billion tons in 2025. But then demand will collapse to only 161 million tons by 2070.

Despite the fact that renewables now dominate new power additions, India needs coal to continue to provide “dependable, cost-effective baseload power, anchoring system reliability as cleaner sources expand,” the government think tank said in the report. 

To manage the transition, India needs to scale up rapidly energy storage, flexible generation, and stronger transmission and distribution networks, the report noted.

Despite booming renewable capacity additions, India continues to rely on coal to meet most of its power demand as authorities also look to avoid blackouts in cases of severe heat waves.

Coal will still be a key part of India’s power system for the next two decades, Rajnath Ram, adviser for energy at NITI Aayog, said in September 2025. 

“We cannot be subjective about coal. The question is how sustainably we can use it,” the official noted.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/11/2026 - 19:15

Trump Pushes To End Senate 'Blue Slips' As GOP Confirms Judges At Record Pace

In just the past week, the Senate confirmed half a dozen of Trump’s judicial nominees, continuing a streak that’s left Democrats visibly frustrated.

Since the start of Trump’s second term, 33 judges have sailed through confirmation — already eclipsing his entire first-term total. By comparison, during Trump’s first year in office, the Senate confirmed 19 Article III judges, including Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch. 

While Senate Republicans are moving fast and confirming judges at a blistering pace, there are mounting calls to scrap one of the Senate’s oldest customs — the “blue slip.” 

The century-old practice has long allowed home-state senators to weigh in on judicial nominations before they advance, but Democrats have been abusing it, turning it into a de facto veto on nominees they don’t like.

Trump has wanted the tradition gone because of the way Democrats have abused it.

Last year, he reportedly told Senate Republicans to “get rid of blue slips, because, as a Republican President, I am unable to put anybody in office having to do with U.S. attorneys or having to do with judges."

Some Republicans sympathize with Trump’s view, seeing the blue slip as an outdated relic that slows confirmations.

But others see danger in dismantling another institutional guardrail.

“Nuking the blue slip would be a huge mistake,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told Fox News Digital, joining several colleagues warning that a short-term rules victory could backfire the next time Democrats control the Senate.

For them, the issue isn’t about speed — it’s about reciprocity.

They argue the GOP will one day need the same courtesy they’re now being pressured to destroy.

While that is certainly true, like the filibuster, it is likely to be nuked by Democrats the next time they’re in power if they feel this guardrail hampers their ability to get what they want. In fact, that’s exactly why the blue slip started to get abused in the first place. In 2017, Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley was forced to reshape the practice after Democrats used it as a veto on Trump’s judicial nominees during his first term. 

Grassley noted at the time that the blue slip began as a “courtesy to get insights on federal court nominees from home-state senators in an era when such information was hard to come by.” It was never, he argued, meant to give senators “veto power over the president’s judicial nominations.” Grassley also reminded Democrats that their predicament was self-inflicted. “Democratic senators’ recent calls for an ahistorical interpretation of the blue slip courtesy stem from a decision they made in 2013 to end the 60-vote filibuster for lower court nominees. This move, often referred to as the ‘nuclear option,’ effectively silenced half of the Senate during confirmation votes.

At the time, many Democratic senators argued it was unfair for a minority of senators to block nominees with majority support.” he wrote.

“Now that they are in the minority, Democrats are scrambling to cope with the fallout from their decision.”

That history lesson seems lost on much of Washington. For now, the tension within the GOP shows no signs of easing, and despite his earlier move, Grassley remains a proponent of blue slips in theory.

"Because it's a question of 110 years, and everybody in the Senate wants to maintain the blue slip," Grassley said.

That is likely wishful thinking. During the Biden years, Senate Democrats ignored the spirit of the tradition whenever it suited them, confirming 42 judges in the first year of Biden’s presidency — a pace even faster than Trump’s current term.

 Trump’s allies argue that the President’s judicial agenda is too critical to be slowed by Senate traditions that Democrats themselves long abandoned.

Others, however, believe that retaliating by erasing every trace of procedural courtesy risks making future confirmations impossible when Democrats are back in power.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/11/2026 - 18:50

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.