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'Hit Us, Please' - America's Left Issues A 'Broken Arrow' Signal To Europe

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'Hit Us, Please' - America's Left Issues A 'Broken Arrow' Signal To Europe

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Broken arrow” is arguably the most chilling and desperate order that an American military commander can issue. When faced with an enemy about to overrun a surrounded force, a commander uses it to call in an air or artillery strike on his own position.

This month, many on the American left are issuing their own “broken arrow” signals, including calling on globalist allies to hit the U.S. with sanctions and other measures. They are seeking to achieve through sanctions what they could not achieve through elections.

The most recent such call came from commentator Elie Mystal on “The Joy Reid Show” this week.

“Our country needs to be sanctioned,” he said.

“We are the bad guys on the world stage. We are a menace to not only free people everywhere, but we are a menace to peaceful people everywhere at this point, and I’m not even going to say that we’ve only been a menace for the past three or four months.”

Mystal’s call was hardly a surprise for those familiar with his writings. A regular commentator on MSNBC, he previously called the Constitution “trash” and urged not just the abolition of the U.S. Senate but also of “all voter registration laws.”

Yet, he is not alone in signaling that his position is being overrun by his fellow citizens.

After Elon Musk bought Twitter with a pledge to dismantle its censorship system, former Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton called upon Europe to use its infamous Digital Services Act to force him to censor fellow Americans.

Nina Jankowicz, the former head of Biden’s infamous Disinformation Governance Board, appeared recently before the European Parliament. She called upon the 27 EU countries to fight against the U.S., which she described as a global threat.

To the delight of globalists, she declared, “Before I describe the details of Russia’s recent online influence campaigns, I would like to call upon you to stand firm against another autocracy: The United States of America.”

This year, I spoke in Berlin at the World Forum and was surprised to see many Americans joining European leaders in support of the forum’s slogan, “A New World Order with European Values.” Attended by figures such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, the conference heralded Europe as key to countering the threat posed by the U.S.

Others denounced America as the world’s villain with boycotts and protests during Fourth of July celebrations. One leading influencer declared that “this country is beyond f**ked” and encouraged citizens to “walk away from the illusion that they built” around this country.

Democratic politicians and pundits have fueled the anger by claiming fighting the current U.S. government is like fighting against the Nazis, including most recently former Vice President Al Gore. Others like Rep. Pramila Jayapal have called ICE agents “terrorists” for enforcing immigration laws.

The crisis of faith on the left often seems to be triggered by any adverse decision or election. In 2022, the Pima County, Arizona Democratic Party tweeted “F–k the Fourth” after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

This year, Fourth of July celebrations were canceled in Los Angeles under the claim that officials feared a mass arrest by ICE — rather implausible, considering that protests against ICE will be held as planned.

Others are organizing protests this week, declaring “F**k fourth of July. We have a king that we need to get rid of first.”

The problem for those calling on the EU to fight the U.S. is democracy itself, something of a headache for the global elite in Brussels. European governments are cracking down on conservative and other groups, which are soaring in popularity, with calls for stronger borders and reversing mass immigration trends. Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, and other countries have experienced a similar surge in the popularity of conservative parties.

The fact is, many of the triggers for these “No Kings” protests are the product of the democratic process from the “Big Beautiful Bill” to changes in immigration policy. Citizens voted for change and successfully secured it, and some people are angry about it.

At the same time, our courts continue to function as designed in reviewing these orders and policies. Trump has won some and lost some before the Supreme Court, as constitutional limits are defined and enforced.

In my forthcoming book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I explore the future of American democracy in the 21st Century in light of economic and political movements, including the current crisis of faith of many on the left over our fundamental values and institutions.

The irony is that this crisis is largely centered among the most privileged classes. Yet recent Gallup polling shows patriotism is at an all-time low. However, the drop is found almost entirely among Democrats. Only 36 percent of Democrats reported being extremely or very proud to be American, compared to 92 percent of Republicans.

Some are simply moving to foreign countries. The New York Times has fanned the flames of those claiming that the U.S. is a new fascist regime. Recently, it featured the declaration of three Yale professors fleeing American fascism for the free nation of Canada. In their piece, titled “We study fascism and we are leaving the United States,” the professors explain that “the lesson of 1933 is that you get out sooner rather than later.”

But what these professors call fascism looks a lot like the democratic process to others. The problem with democracy is that it does not always produce the outcome you want.

For some, support for democratic choice seems to extend only to fellow citizens who make the “right” choice, from their own perspective, of course. So faced with losses in elections and in Congress, many are shouting “broken arrow” and hoping for external help in crushing the opposition.

Yet the fact is, this country is not being “overrun.” Those are fellow citizens who are calling for these policy changes and rejecting far-left policies. Just as many in Europe are calling on the EU to block far-right democratic victories, many in this country are advocating for the trashing of the Constitution or transnational interventions to reverse political voting trends.

The fact is, the far left is not truly surrounded. They have simply retreated into smaller and smaller echo chambers rather than engage the rest of the country on these issues. Viewed from within the protected spaces of MSNBC or BlueSky, you can feel surrounded, but it remains a type of self-isolation. It is like watching wagons frantically circling on the plains without a hostile in sight. The problem is that most of America has moved on.

In the end, the calls for a globalist intervention are a final desperate call of America’s self-isolated left.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the best-selling author of “The Indispensable Right.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 13:45

Russian Transport Minister Dies By Gunshot Hours After Getting Fired By Putin

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Russian Transport Minister Dies By Gunshot Hours After Getting Fired By Putin

Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit is reported to have died by suicide on Monday, a mere hours after being dismissed from his post by President Vladimir Putin, according to Kremlin officials.

Hours prior to Starovoit's death, Putin signed the order removing him from office, with the official decree having been quickly published on the Kremlin’s website. Deputy Minister Andrey Nikitin has been named as acting transport minister in the wake of the dismissal.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was questioned by reporters on the firing, but did not provide details or a specific reason for the sudden change, but he did deny that it was due to a "lack of trust" when asked.

According to emerging details conveyed through Russian state sources: 

The Investigative Committee of Russia said in a statement that Starovoit’s body was found inside a car in Odintsovo, a suburb of Moscow. He was found with a gunshot wound, the committee said. It said the circumstances of his death were being investigated but the “main theory is suicide.”

Starovoit had barely served a year in the job, after being appointed in May 2024. Before that he was governor of the Kursk region bordering Ukraine for nearly half a decade. 

As Kursk governor, he had faced severe criticism and scrutiny for security lapses which allowed for last summer's Ukrainian invasion and occupation of large swathes of Russian soil, which lasted for well over six months.

Starovoit's dismissal may have served as a public accountability scapegoat of sorts related to widespread public frustration and anger over weeks of commercial travel delays.

Russia has witnessed weeks of disruptions to air travel across almost every major city in the Western and most populated portion of the country, due to constant drone assaults out of Ukraine.

The Russian Federal Agency for Air Transport has lately said that 485 flights have been canceled, 88 rerouted, and approximately 1,900 experienced delays just over this past weekend and into Monday.

Ukraine's military and intelligence leadership has lately openly boasted that its actions targeted against Russian soil have disrupted daily life there, in order to put pressure on the Putin government, and destabilize society.

Given the recent history of deaths of top officials, and even oil execs - often under mysterious circumstances -Starovoit's death is also raising eyebrows and fueling speculation that it may be foul play. For example there was this headline from merely days ago...

CNBC highlights a potential corruption scandal: "A presidential decree published earlier on Monday gave no reason for the dismissal of Roman Starovoit after barely a year in the job, though political analysts were quick to raise the possibility that he may have been dismissed in connection with an investigation into corruption in the region he once ran," the report says.

It continues: "Reuters could not independently confirm these suggestions, though a transport industry source, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, said Starovoit’s position had been in question for months due to questions about the same corruption scandal, which centred on funds earmarked for fortifying Russia’s border with Ukraine in the Kursk region."

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 13:25

Why Recessions Are Not About Declining GDP

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Why Recessions Are Not About Declining GDP

Authored by Frank Shostak via Mises.org

Most economic commentators consider a decline in economic statistics, such as gross domestic product (GDP), as indicative of a decline in the health of the economy. According to most experts, this decline in the GDP—which is called a recession—as a rule, arises because of an overall decline in the aggregate demand for goods and services. This is seen predominantly as a decline in the private sector’s buying of goods and services.

Consequently, it is recommended that the central bank should step in and strengthen the private sector’s demand. This, it is held, will pull the economy out of the slump. The means recommended by experts are the lowering of interest rates by increasing the growth rate of money supply.

The problem—central to economics—is that goods are not readily available. These goods have to be produced by transforming various things in nature into goods, either capital goods (to make other goods) or consumer goods. The transformation of things undergoes various stages and takes time. In an economy, which operates in the framework of the division of labor, some individuals are employed in the extraction of various raw materials such as coal and iron. Some other individuals are employed in the conversion of raw materials into various tools and machinery. Still some other individuals are employed in the transformation—using tools and machinery—of various things into consumer goods.

In order to support this process of production through time, saving is required to sustain producers. Saving supports individuals in all the stages of production—from the producers of immediate consumer goods, to the producers of raw materials, and the producers of tools and machinery. This saving to support capital accumulation and growth has been called a “subsistence fund” because it sustains individuals in the various stages of the production structure.

Capital goods—like consumer goods—are also scarce. In order to make these goods, it is necessary to save and sacrifice. The goal is to create capital goods which will ultimately make production more productive and efficient—saving time, energy, and resources. As we can see, simply getting people to consume or spend more to increase aggregate demand, thus increasing the GDP metric, does not grow the economy. Production and saving must take place prior to consumption, in fact, that is what enables greater consumption.

What Is a Recession?

A recession is not really a weakening of GDP and various other economic indicators, but the liquidation of various non-productive activities that have emerged on the back of the loose monetary policies of the central bank. We label these activities bubbles. When the central bank loosens its monetary stance, this lays the foundation of exchanges of nothing for something, which amounts to a diversion of savings from wealth-generating activities to non-wealth-generating activities. This undermines the wealth generation process.

Once the central bank slows this process of monetary and credit expansion—which had built up a distorted structure of production—a recession reveals the malinvestments. Activities that sprang up on the back of the previous easy-money policies are now getting less support as a result of a tighter monetary stance. These activities fall into trouble—an economic bust, or a recession emerges. Regardless of how big and strong an economy appears, a tighter monetary stance will undermine bubble activities.

It follows, then, that recessions or economic busts are not about the strength of an economy as such. It is about the liquidation of activities that emerged because of the previous easy monetary policies of the central bank. The recessionary process is set in motion once the central bank reverses its easy-money stance. Ironically, recessions are good news for wealth-generators. A tighter monetary stance slows the diversion of savings from them towards bubble activities. This, in turn, strengthens the wealth-generation process.

According to most commentators, however, as long as consumer spending is increasing, there is no risk of a recession ahead. This means that as long as there is a growing demand by consumers, good times will follow. But demand cannot be independent, it is restricted by the previous production. The only way to raise the ability to consume more is to raise the ability to produce. On this James Mill held,

But if a nation’s power of purchasing is exactly measured by its annual produce, as it undoubtedly is; the more you increase the annual produce, the more by that very act you extend the national market, the power of purchasing and the actual purchases of the nation…. The demand of a nation is exactly its power of purchasing. But what is its power of purchasing? The extent undoubtedly of its annual produce.

Once more, what limits demand is the ability to produce. Greater production of consumer goods depends on production of capital goods. In order to produce more capital goods, saving is required. The answer is not more consumption and spending fueled by inflationary monetary policy.

GDP and the Money Supply

The key variable that most commentators pay attention to is the gross domestic product (GDP). Given that this indicator is based on monetary turnover, then obviously changes in the money supply are followed by changes in the GDP. Policies aimed at preventing the emergence of a recession make things much worse. These policies not only provide support to existing bubble activities but allow the emergence of new bubbles, worsening the situation.

As long as wealth producers can generate an adequate amount of savings to support productive and bubble activities, the inflationary policies of the central bank (which strengthens GDP) are regarded by most experts as a success. Once the ability of wealth-generators to support overall economic activity weakens, the economy is starting to slide into a recessionary hole. No central bank expansionary monetary policy can reverse this slide. On the contrary, it will deepen the economic slump.

Conclusion

A recession should not be defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but as the liquidation of bubble activities that emerged on the back of the previous easy-money policies of the central bank. The recessionary process is set in motion once the central bank reverses its easy stance, however, this inflationary policy cannot be continued forever or it risks undermining the entire monetary economy. What matters for true economic strength is not strong economic data but freedom from the central bank and government policies that tamper with markets and money.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 13:00

Canada's Manufacturing Sector Faces Sharp Decline Amid Tariffs And Trade Uncertainty

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Canada's Manufacturing Sector Faces Sharp Decline Amid Tariffs And Trade Uncertainty

Canada’s manufacturing sector shrank for the fifth month in a row, with the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 45.6 in June, down from 46.1 in May — well below the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, according to the Financial Post.

The latest data shows the steepest drop in production since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic hit. According to S&P Global, this downturn was driven by weak demand, a sharp fall in new orders, and ongoing trade challenges. “A lack of new orders underpinned the latest downturn and helped to explain the steepest reduction in production since the height of the pandemic,” said Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The Financial Post writes that manufacturers reported a significant decline in export demand, particularly from the U.S., which accounts for around 75% of Canada’s exports. Rising costs due to U.S. tariffs have made Canadian goods less competitive. As a result, international orders dropped at one of the steepest rates in the survey’s history.

“Canada’s manufacturing economy continued to struggle in the face of tariffs and the ongoing uncertainty related to future trade policies,” Smith added.

The slump has forced firms to cut output and reduce purchasing, leading to the fastest drop in input inventories in five years. Some of this was due to intentional destocking, but supply chain delays also led companies to rely on existing stock.

Employment in the sector fell for the fifth consecutive month, with firms choosing not to replace departing staff or enacting layoffs to manage costs. “International sales unsurprisingly were especially subdued, and, against this backdrop, firms chose to make further cuts to their employment and purchasing activity,” said Smith.

Despite the grim data, some manufacturers are cautiously optimistic. Confidence in the outlook rose to its highest level since January, though it remains below the historical average. “Although sentiment improved on hopes of some stability in the year ahead, confidence in the outlook remains subdued and uncertain,” Smith concluded.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 12:40

Israel Bombs Ports, Power Plant In Yemen After Month-Long Pause

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Israel Bombs Ports, Power Plant In Yemen After Month-Long Pause

On Sunday Israel's military launched airstrikes on three ports and a power facility against Houthi-controlled Yemen, resulting in the group launching a barrage of missiles in retaliation. Israel is calling the major new initiative 'Operation Black Flag'.

The Israeli military (IDF) announced it had targeted the Red Sea ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa, and as-Salif, as well as the Ras Kathib power station. Additionally, it described striking a radar system aboard the Galaxy Leader, a ship previously seized by the Houthis and currently docked in Hodeidah.

Illustrative: prior Israeli strikes on Yemen, via AP.

This is the first escalation of its kind in nearly a month, and the IDF defended the action as necessary and warranted after intercepting a missile launched from Yemen earlier that day.

At least two more missiles were fired on Israel following the port strikes, with Houthi military spokesperson Yehyaa Saree later confirmed the launches, saying they again targeted Ben Gurion Airport, as well as the ports of Ashdod and Eilat and a power station in Ashkelon.

Israeli defense systems were active in seeking to intercept the inbound missiles, with possible damage on the ground still being assessed. No casualties on either side of this fresh flare-up were initially reported.

There are meanwhile new fears that another war could erupt in the Red Sea, as we also reported earlier.

On Saturday evening, air raid sirens sounded across the Dead Sea region and parts of the West Bank following the launch of a ballistic missile from Yemen toward Israel. The launch, attributed to Iran-backed Houthi forces, marked an alarming expansion of their missile capabilities beyond the Red Sea maritime chokepoint. 

Hours later, on Sunday morning, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) received a report that a merchant vessel transiting 51 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen, came under attack by multiple boats armed with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. The vessel's onboard security team returned fire. The incident remains ongoing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting  the White House on Monday, where a potential ceasefire deal could materialize to end the 21-month war in Gaza. Trump has previously announced a "final proposal" for a 60-day ceasefire. Renewed conflict in Yemen is likely to also be on the agenda, after the US military formally ended its Red Sea mission.

* * *

Below are more developing events and headlines via Newsquawk:

Middle East

  • Israeli military issued an evacuation order to people at Yemen’s ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa and Al-Salif, as well as to those inside the Hodeidah power station, while it announced to carry out airstrikes in those areas due to military activities being conducted there. Israel's Defence Minister later confirmed military strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen's ports of Hodeidah, Salif, Ras Isa, as well as the Ras Qatib power plant
  • A Liberia-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier was attacked 51NM off Yemen’s Hodeidah, while the UKMTO later announced that all crew abandoned a ship that was attacked southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah.
  • Israeli PM’s office said the changes requested by Hamas to the Qatari proposal are not acceptable to Israel, while the negotiating team will depart to Qatar for Gaza talks.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said he is determined to ensure hostages’ return to Israel and remove the Hamas threat from Gaza, while he said his negotiators in ceasefire talks have clear instructions to achieve an agreement under conditions Israel has accepted. Furthermore, Netanyahu said ahead of his White House meeting that he believes the discussion with US President Trump can certainly help advance these results.
  • US President Trump said he will discuss Iran with Israeli PM Netanyahu and noted Iran’s nuclear program was set back permanently but they may restart in a different location, while Trump also said there could be a Gaza deal during the week ahead.
  • First session of indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended inconclusively and the Israeli delegation does not have sufficient mandate to reach an agreement with Hamas as it has no real power, according to two Palestinian officials cited by Reuters.
  • Hamas government office rejected a US State Department accusation that Hamas was involved in an attack on Americans at a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation site on Saturday.
  • UK government re-established diplomatic relations with Syria.
  • The second round of (Israel-Hamas) negotiations in Doha will begin this afternoon, via Al Arabiya sources. Subsequently, there is reportedly a positive atmosphere in Israel-Hamas negotiations, no breakthrough so far, according to Al Hadath.

Ukraine

  • US President Trump said they won’t be sending patriot missiles to Ukraine but talked about it and noted they have to be protected, while he said Russian President Putin is worried about sanctions and understands it may be coming.
  • Russian military forces gained control of Sobolivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and Piddubne in Donetsk region.
  • Russian Foreign Minister says Russia does not need a temporary ceasefire, but rather a lasting peace.
Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 12:00

Luxury Housing Market No Longer Out Of Reach For Some 'Move-Up' Buyers: Report

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Luxury Housing Market No Longer Out Of Reach For Some 'Move-Up' Buyers: Report

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Many people recall the Emmy Award–winning sitcom “The Jeffersons,” whose theme song references George and Weezie “moving on up.” Today, that trend is making a comeback in the luxury market, as “move-up” buyers are entering it for the first time.

ppa/Shutterstock

Coldwell Banker’s 2025 Mid-Year Global Luxury Report indicates the U.S. luxury home market remains strong, with more buyers whose significant financial gains on the sales of their current homes are pushing them into a new level of home-buying opportunities.

In preparing the report, the national real estate brokerage analyzed luxury market data from 120 U.S. markets and surveyed more than 200 of their luxury-property specialists to identify five current trends shaping this market segment.

“Buyers who once thought luxury was out of reach are now finding themselves in that tier by default,” Michael Altneu, vice president of the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Program, said in the report.

“They’re coming to the market with significant equity and high expectations, and they’re helping to sustain activity.”

This group includes homeowners who purchased properties five or more years ago and have made significant gains on their real estate investments.

According to Realtor.com, the threshold prices for the luxury home market vary from state to state, with a low of $750,000 in West Virginia, to a high of $5.49 million in New York.

Elena Novak, a lead real estate researcher analyst at PropertyChecker.com, told The Epoch Times that the trend of “move up” buyers is real and growing.

“This is mostly due to record-high home equity, and many are putting their money toward larger homes, often in cash or with very small mortgages,” she said, citing an earlier report by data company ATTOM that notes U.S. home sellers in 2024 made an average profit of $122,500 per sale.

However, Novak cautioned that the housing ladder is getting stuck.

“While these buyers do help free up some mid-range homes, many other homeowners are staying put because they don’t want to give up their low mortgage rates,” she said. “This limits supply for first-time and middle-income buyers.”

Novak believes that the effect of this “move up” trend will be mostly positive for the local economy.

“A move-up buyer means two homes are sold, their old one and the new one [they bought], and that creates more spending, more local jobs, and more tax income,” she said.

She believes the trend is also helping to keep the high-end market healthy, particularly in migration areas like the Sun Belt.

Shaun Michael Lewis, CEO of Clearwater Properties, agrees, adding that the trend is equally as popular in the West.

“Buyers who five years ago might have secured a modest $400,000 house in Bozeman, Montana, are now sitting on perhaps $600,000, $700,000 in equity and can now contemplate the purchase of a home around $1.2 million to $1.5 million in other ‘less hot’ locations where they can get much more home for their money,” he told The Epoch Times.

Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director at Real Estate Research, told The Epoch Times that the luxury market has been outperforming all other price segments over the past year—in particular, the $1 million-plus tier.

“However, in May 2025, we saw a shift—sales in this segment declined 0.6 percent year over year, marking the first drop in over a year,” she said.

“This softening at the top of the market suggests that broader market dynamics are catching up with high-end buyers.”

Evangelou suggested that the recent stock market volatility could be a possible factor, as it often influences liquidity and buying behavior in the luxury market.

Lewis believes those “moving up” will not only help fuel the tax base, but also the local economy with new luxury homeowners shopping, frequenting restaurants, and hiring specialized services such as landscaping and property management.

On the flip side, the trend is forcing many potential buyers to drive further out from towns like Bozeman to find listings under $400,000.

“This housing shortage also makes it harder for businesses to recruit and keep staff and often forces employers to invent  interim housing fixes like temporary lodging,” Lewis said.

While luxury sales remain strong, he contends they’re splitting the market in half.

“Sellers who are selling properties priced above $1 million are still enjoying relatively quick sales, while homes priced from $600,000–900,000 are sitting on the market for longer, “ he said.

Other Luxury Market Trends

More than 68 percent of those surveyed by Coldwell Banker reported that clients are either maintaining or growing their real estate exposure, with another 51 percent reporting an increase in all-cash transactions. The report indicates that clients are also more unlikely to compromise on lifestyle preferences, property conditions, or luxury features.

“Affluent buyers still see real estate as a safe haven to grow and protect their wealth,” Altneu said in a statement. “But as the market balances and more inventory comes online, they can also be more choosy than in recent years.”

Another trend the report found is that real estate remains a cornerstone of wealth strategy, especially during times of economic uncertainty. It maintains that affluent buyers view real estate as safe haven as well as a valuable tool for portfolio diversification.

“Smart Luxury” is a third emerging trend with luxury homebuyers making more practical considerations such as value for price, tax strategy, estate planning, and long-term investment potential. According to the report, these tend to be taking the place of over-the-top amenities or “trophy” locations.

The fourth trend is a wider divide between the ultra-wealthy versus the aspirational buyer. This translates to buyers with a net worth of $1 million to $5 million as opposed to buyers with a net worth of $30 million and above. The report finds those in the $1 million to $5 million range tend to be more cautious and often target homes with renovation potential.

The final trend pertains to cash buyers, with 96 percent of Coldwell’s luxury specialists reporting buyers maintaining or increasing all-cash deals.

“Ultra-high-net-worth individuals are not just buying one property—they’re building real estate portfolio,” Jade Mills, international ambassador of the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Program said in the report.

“These buyers are paying all cash specifically because they want hard assets independent of market swings.”

The report quotes data from the Institute for Luxury Marketing showing the luxury single-family home inventory has escalated by 19.6 percent and attached property inventory by 14.8 percent compared with 2024. Still, single-family home prices grew by 1.8 percent year over year and 8 percent compared with 2023. Prices for attached properties have advanced even more—by 8.4 percent year over year and 16.5 percent over the past two years.

An April study by the University of California San Diego Rady School of Management found that all cash home buyers have an advantage by paying about 10 percent less than mortgage buyers.

“When sellers accept a mortgage offer, it comes with risk,” Michael Reher, study co-author and assistant professor of finance at the Rady School of Management said in a statement. “There is a risk the deal will fall through because there’s a third-party mortgage lender who needs to approve the loan for the borrower .”

Reher and a colleague conducted the study after they both had experienced mortgage offers to homes being rejected because sellers chose an all-cash offer instead.

A recent Bankrate blog on cash offers weighs both the pros and cons of these types of transactions, noting quicker closing and less red tape when dealing with a lender, but also the possibility of not receiving the highest amount on the deal.

“Ultimately, deciding whether an all-cash offer is right for you will depend on whether you want to sell as fast as possible,” the webpage reported. “If you have time and want to aim for top dollar, you might get a better deal from a buyer who’s financing.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 11:40

Gunman Ambushes Border Patrol Agents In Texas Amid Anti-ICE Rhetoric From Democrats

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Gunman Ambushes Border Patrol Agents In Texas Amid Anti-ICE Rhetoric From Democrats

Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin reported moments ago that a gunman wearing tactical gear and armed with a rifle ambushed U.S. Border Patrol agents at an auxiliary facility earlier this morning. This shooting comes amid increasingly hostile rhetoric directed at federal agents — primarily fueled by Democratic Party lawmakers and their affiliated leftist Marxist NGOs — raising questions about the real-world consequences of politically charged attacks on federal law enforcement. 

"Three federal & TX law enforcement sources tell me an active shooter with a rifle & tactical gear ambushed Border Patrol agents as they arrived at a Border Patrol annex facility in McAllen, TX this morning," Melugin wrote on X. 

He continued, "Local police and federal agents returned fire, killing him. I'm told this was a purposeful ambush/attack against federal agents and a press conference is planned for later this morning." 

Melugin noted that "No federal agents injured. I'm told a McAllen police officer may have been shot, but is in stable condition." 

"Violence against law enforcement officials is unacceptable. Democrat leaders must stop putting targets on the backs of ICE and Border Patrol with their rhetoric," Elon Musk's America PAC (AMERICA) wrote on X. 

Tom Homan, President Trump's border czar, stated on Fox News: "The attack on ICE officers... is up nearly 700% now... We have Senators, we have Congresspeople that compare ICE to the Nazis... The rhetoric has to stop or it's a matter of time before one of the ICE officers goes down."

Last month, a top far-left city official in southeast Los Angeles County called for Mexican gangs to mobilize against ICE agents. 

Will the Trump administration finally get serious about Democrats and their rogue network of leftist NGOs accused of inciting violence against federal agents?

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 11:25

Wall Street Responds To 'America Party'; Musk Denies, Calls Party Filing 'Fake News'

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Wall Street Responds To 'America Party'; Musk Denies, Calls Party Filing 'Fake News'

Tesla shares tumbled in premarket trading in New York as investors weighed Elon Musk's move to launch the new "America Party," just one day after President Trump signed a tax-cut and spending bill into law—legislation Musk had publicly denounced. Although Musk has denied founding the party, calling the reports "fake news," the market appears unconvinced.

Tesla's stock, already down 22% year-to-date as of Thursday's close, is poised to lose another 7% if premarket losses carry into the cash trading session.

Wall Street analysts are concerned that Musk is "diving deeper into politics," which could damage the brand, weaken demand, or further distract him from Tesla's core EV and robotics units.

Here's what some on Wall Street are saying, via Bloomberg:

Wedbush (Dan Ives)

  • "Very simply Musk diving deeper into politics and now trying to take on the Beltway establishment is exactly the opposite direction that Tesla investors/ shareholders want him to take during this crucial period for the Tesla story"

  • With the autonomous future ahead and the AI revolution in full force, Musk should avoid acts of provocation. Trump can create more hurdles for Musk as well as Tesla and SpaceX if the political battle intensifies heading into mid-term elections in 2026

  • "We remain firmly bullish on Tesla's AI future but clearly this is not the news we want to see as it adds another perceived overhang to the stock"

  • Maintains outperform on stock with a price target at $500

Global X ETFs (Billy Leung)

  • "This probably isn't what Tesla investors were hoping for. Musk just got back to focusing on the business and the stock was rallying. Now he's dragging it into another political headline cycle"

  • For the stock, the move raises noise and volatility in the short term while long term, the core thesis for Tesla is still about AI, robotics, and autonomy — the political distractions don't really dent that 

Rayliant Global Advisors (Jason Hsu)

  • This may be Musk's best route to protect what he has built once he realizes that his relationship with Trump has soured beyond repair. Without gaining meaningful political power, Musk and his companies remain exposed and highly at risk

  • "Backing a few select congressional candidates won't do enough to give Musk political protection. But forming a party and aiming to play the middle is a much bigger game with a significantly larger impact and payoff"

  • For the shares, expect some initial volatility as some investors would be concerned with Musk's distraction and many probably don't see this as the best move to protect Tesla from the wrath of the Trump administration

Goldman analyst Nelson Armbrust provided clients with a summary of the weekend events:

Musk said on Saturday that a new "America Party" he'd been threatening to launch was formed, a day after Trump signed a tax-cut and spending bill into law that Musk had denounced. He didn't provide details of the political party and there's no immediate indication that he has filed official paperwork. Tesla's stock, which has lost more than 20% this year, is poised to fall further: The company's shares slumped as much as 7.6% in premarket trading on Monday.

Armbrust also shared a chart with clients, highlighting Tesla's price action during the "good times" of the Musk-Trump relationship, pinpointing the inflection point where tensions began to deteriorate, which corresponded with a drag on the share price.

Musk has voiced deep frustration with GOP lawmakers over their failure to codify DOGE cuts and President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," which was signed into law on Independence Day. By Sunday, Musk's team submitted a filing to create the America Party...

On Truth Social, Trump responded to Musk... 

However, Musk chimed in late Sunday and called the America Party filing with the Federal Election Commission fake news.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 11:12

Key Events This Week: FOMC Minutes And Trump Tariff Deadline

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Week: FOMC Minutes And Trump Tariff Deadline

The week after payrolls is usually quiet for data (key US event on the calendar is the FOMC minutes on Wednesday) so all eyes will focus on Wednesday's 90-day extension to the reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day back on April 2nd. However, there are increasingly suggestions that August 1st might be the new July 9th (see below). 

As a benchmark, DB's economists believe the current effective rate is around 15% (same as Morgan Stanley, see chart below), which is obviously a good deal below the implied rate from Liberation Day, but well above the low single figures before Trump returned to office. It is good news for markets that Section 899 (the revenge tax) has been consigned to the history books after not making it into the tax bill. It's also good news that Bessent has recently sounded more positive on the direction of travel in recent talks. 

However, with financial conditions easy again and with the S&P 500 back at all-time highs, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Trump Administration take a tough stance with those who they don't think negotiations are going in the right direction. 

President Trump said at the end of last week that by the July 9 deadline, tariffs would be "fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%." Then over the weekend he said that he'd “signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday – probably 12”. Overnight this was firmed up to noon Washington time today. 

On Thursday he'd mentioned that the letters could go out on the Friday holiday and apply from August 1st if no deal can be made. This gave some comfort that there could be yet another extension and time to do deals. Bessent has also reiterated over the weekend that some countries would be able to negotiate a three-week extension to August 1st. So maybe we'll just be here again in three weeks when everyone is on the beach apart from the trade negotiators.

For Europe, Bloomberg reported that the union is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff if exemptions for areas such as autos (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%) are provided. For Japan, the mood turned negative last week as President Trump said that they should "pay 30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan." On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were "very close" to a deal with India, and on Thursday the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam. 

Then overnight Trump posted on social media that "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff,” This follows a BRICs summit in Rio over the weekend where the group condemned US and Israeli strikes on Iran. 

In terms of key events this week, a highlight will be June's FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Economists expect more details to emerge around the extent of divisions among Committee members. Staying with monetary policy, central bank decisions are due in Australia tomorrow and New Zealand on Wednesday. DB's economists forecast 25bps cuts for both.

So lots of headlines in recent days, stand by for lots more over the next two days, and then likely beyond. 

Courtesy of DB, here is a Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 7

  • Data: China June foreign reserves, Japan May labor cash earnings, leading and coincident index, Germany May industrial production, Eurozone May retail sales, Sweden June CPI
  • Central banks: ECB's Nagel and Holzmann speak

Tuesday July 8

  • Data: US June NFIB small business optimism, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, May consumer credit, Japan June Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, May BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany May trade balance, France May trade balance, current account balance
  • Central banks: RBA decision, ECB's Nagel speaks

Wednesday July 9

  • Data: US May wholesale trade sales, China June CPI, PPI, Japan June M2, M3, machine tool orders
  • Central banks: FOMC minutes, RBNZ decision, ECB's Nagel and Guindos speak

Thursday July 10

  • Data: US initial jobless claims, UK June RICS house price balance, Japan June PPI, Italy May industrial production, Denmark and Norway June CPI, Sweden May GDP indicator
  • Central banks: Fed's Musalem and Daly speak, ECB's Cipollone and Villeroy speak

Friday July 11

  • Data: US June federal budget balance, UK May monthly GDP, Germany June wholesale price index, May current account balance, Canada June jobs report, May building permits

* * * 

Turning to just the US, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. St. Louis Fed President Musalem and San Francisco Fed President Daly will take part in public speaking engagements on Thursday.

Monday, July 7

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, July 8

  • 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, June (consensus 98.6, last 98.8)
  • 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, June (last 3.2%)

Wednesday, July 9

  • 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (consensus -0.3%, last -0.3%)
     
  • 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, June 17-18:At its June meeting, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth forecasts to reflect larger tariff increases than they had previously assumed, but they made only moderate changes and were likely cautious in their tariff assumptions. The median 2025 dot—the key market focus at the June meeting—was unchanged by a narrow 10-9 majority at two cuts to 3.875%, while the median 2026 and 2027 dots both increased by 25bp. In the press conference Chair Powell reiterated that the FOMC was well positioned to respond to future developments and noted that he still expected to see meaningful tariff effects on consumer prices over the summer. 
    In the June minutes, we will also look for further clues on how FOMC participants are thinking about the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy framework review. We expect the FOMC’s “Statement of Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy” to return to saying that the FOMC will respond to “deviations” in both directions from maximum employment in normal times or at least water down the shortfalls language, under which the FOMC had previously committed to responding only to shortfalls from maximum employment. The Committee will also likely return to flexible inflation targeting (rather than flexible average inflation targeting) as its main strategy, though it is likely to retain the option to use a make-up strategy in some cases when the economy is at the zero lower bound (ZLB). As part of its review of communication strategies, the FOMC could introduce alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and could also show corresponding monetary policy paths to explain how it might act under different circumstances.

Thursday, July 10

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 5 (GS 235k, last 233k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 28 (last 1,964k)
  • 09:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at an event hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Moderated and audience Q&A is expected. On June 6th, Musalem noted that while tariffs could have only a temporary effect on inflation lasting “a quarter or two,” their impact on inflation could also “last longer,” and noted there was a “50-50” chance that either scenario takes place. Musalem stressed that “if market-implied and/or survey measures of medium- to long-term inflation expectations begin to rise, at that point it becomes very important to prioritise price stability.”
  • 02:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at an event hosted by MNI. On June 26th, Daly said that her “modal outlook has been for some time that we would begin to be able to adjust the rates in the fall, and I haven’t really changed that view.” Daly also said she “saw three scenarios [on how tariffs affect inflation]: one scenario … is that it’s just delayed … the second is that it’s just delayed but it will be a one-off … and then the third, which … is not my modal but is increasingly possible, is that this just doesn’t amount to what the models in history would tell us because businesses find ways to absorb the cost, and they split it down the production chain, and ultimately consumers pay less of that.”

Friday, July 11

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, Goldman, Barclays

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 10:20

Tariff Time Again: Trump Sends Trade Letters Ahead Of Deadline, Threatens 10% Tariff On BRICS-Aligned Nations

Zero Hedge -

Tariff Time Again: Trump Sends Trade Letters Ahead Of Deadline, Threatens 10% Tariff On BRICS-Aligned Nations

Trade tensions are once again front and center for investors as President Trump's tariff deadline looms.

On Sunday night, the president announced that the U.S. will begin sending tariff letters to major trading partners, warning of levies on countries that have yet to strike a deal. The president expects letters to be sent to 12 countries. 

Trump wrote on Truth Social:

I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, President of The United States of America.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump will begin sending letters to U.S. trading partners, warning that if no agreement is reached, tariff rates will revert to April 2nd levels—set to take effect on August 1.

Bessent noted that several major deals are nearing completion and that "big announcements" could be made this week. He added that around 100 smaller countries will be assigned a default tariff rate, many of which never engaged in negotiations with the Trump administration. 

Adding to the uncertainty, Trump said an additional 10% tariff will be imposed on any nation aligning with BRICS, the bloc of emerging market economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) seen as increasingly hostile to U.S. interests. 

Trump wrote on Truth Social:

Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

The 10-member bloc of emerging-market nations has increasingly positioned itself as a geopolitical and economic contender to the US-led global economic order, which is seen as fracturing as the world stumbles into a dangerous bipolar state. 

BRICS seeks to reduce the dominance of Western institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and the U.S. dollar system

Trump has previously threatened countries that back a new reserve currency...

"The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar, while we stand by and watch, is OVER," Trump wrote on X in late 2024. 

Goldman analyst Nelson Armbrust commented on Trump's tariff posts:

Trade tensions are back in view as the tariff deadline approaches, with Trump pledging to start issuing unilateral rates to dozens of countries in the coming days. Stocks retreated at the start of a potentially volatile week as U.S. trading partners rushed to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of a July 9 tariff deadline.

U.S. officials earlier signaled August 1 as the date for higher levies to kick in. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated some countries may be offered a three-week extension to negotiate.

On a side note, over the weekend BRICS leaders, including China and India, condemned U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and called for a "just and lasting" resolution to conflicts across the Middle East. President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning with "the Anti-American policies of BRICS". Metals fell, the yuan weakened and the dollar rose 0.4%

The inflection point appears to be the 2030s... 

The broader message is clear: the Trump administration is drawing a very hard line—it will not allow BRICS to dismantle the dollar-based global order. This is shaping up to be a fight for economic and geopolitical survival, as the White House moves to ensure the American experiment endures the challenges of a bipolar world in the 2030s. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 09:40

What Trump's Big Beautiful Bill Means For Your Wallet

Zero Hedge -

What Trump's Big Beautiful Bill Means For Your Wallet

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The One Big Beautiful Bill, which President Donald Trump signed on Independence Day, ushers in significant changes to Americans’ personal finances.

Spanning nearly 1,000 pages, the legislation locks in Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and introduces new tax breaks—including deductions for tips, overtime pay, and auto loan interest—while also offering a special $6,000 deduction for seniors who receive Social Security.

At the same time, the Republican-backed bill enacts significant cuts to social programs such as Medicaid and food assistance, eliminates tax incentives for clean energy, and overhauls the federal student loan system.

Speaking ahead of the final vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said, “For everyday Americans, this means real, positive change that they can feel.”

Here’s what the measure could mean for your wallet.

Tax Cuts

At the heart of the legislation is the permanent extension of the tax cuts first enacted under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 during Trump’s first term. That law reduced marginal tax rates across the board, with most brackets seeing cuts of roughly 2 to 4 percent.

Those tax cuts were set to expire after 2025 without congressional action, which could have resulted in higher taxes for more than 60 percent of taxpayers by 2026, according to a 2024 Tax Foundation report. The One Big Beautiful Bill not only preserves those tax reductions but enhances several key provisions.

The standard deduction will increase to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married couples filing jointly. The estate and gift tax exemption rises to $15 million for individuals and $30 million for couples. The child tax credit grows to $2,200 per child starting in 2025, with up to $1,700 refundable, and future increases indexed to inflation.

New Parents

One of the bill’s novel features is the creation of new “Trump Accounts” for children born between 2025 and 2028.

Under the provision, the federal government will make a one-time $1,000 deposit for every eligible child who is a U.S. citizen. Parents can contribute up to $5,000 annually, with investments growing tax-deferred in a fund that tracks a U.S. stock index. Employers can also chip in up to $2,500, contributions that won’t count as taxable income for the employee.

Withdrawals from the accounts will be taxed as long-term capital gains if used for qualified purposes.

Families With Children

Families raising kids under 17 will see expanded tax relief under the bill.

The child tax credit will increase from $2,000 to $2,200 per child starting in 2025 and will be indexed for inflation going forward. Up to $1,700 of that amount will be refundable, providing cash back even for families who owe little or no income tax.

This change builds on Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which had doubled the credit from $1,000 to $2,000 but were scheduled to expire after 2025 without congressional action. With the One Big Beautiful Bill, the higher credit becomes permanent.

Service Workers

Workers in industries where tips make up a significant part of income will benefit from new tax breaks.

The legislation allows individuals to deduct up to $25,000 of tip income annually from federal taxes between 2025 and 2028. The deduction phases out for individuals earning more than $150,000, or $300,000 for joint filers.

Similarly, those working long hours will benefit from a temporary tax deduction for overtime pay. Single filers can deduct up to $12,500 in overtime income, while joint filers can deduct up to $25,000. The deduction phases out for higher earners and expires after 2028.

Car Buyers

The bill also provides relief for consumers purchasing American-made vehicles.

Taxpayers will be able to deduct up to $10,000 in interest on new auto loans taken out between 2025 and 2028. The deduction phases out for individuals earning over $100,000, or $200,000 for married couples filing jointly.

Eligible vehicles must be assembled in the United States, aligning the provision with Trump’s broader focus on supporting domestic manufacturing.

Taxpayers in High-Tax States

The legislation raises the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, which allow taxpayers who itemize to subtract what they’ve paid in state and local income and property taxes from their federal taxable income. This is particularly relevant for residents of high-tax states such as New York, New Jersey, and California.

The bill raises the SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 starting in 2025. It will then rise by one percent annually through 2029 before reverting to $10,000 in 2030. However, the expanded deduction begins phasing out for taxpayers with income above $500,000.

Lawmakers from high-tax states had pushed for the increase for years, arguing that the original $10,000 cap disproportionately impacted their constituents.

Seniors

Instead of fully eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, as Trump once floated, the bill provides a $6,000 annual deduction for Social Security income.

The deduction phases out for individuals earning over $75,000 and couples earning over $150,000, and is unavailable to single filers earning $175,000 or more or joint filers above $250,000.

The Social Security Administration estimates that nearly 90 percent of beneficiaries will see no federal taxes on their benefits under this change, describing the One Big Beautiful Bill as providing “meaningful and immediate relief to seniors who have spent a lifetime contributing to our nation’s economy.”

The expanded tax breaks under the bill will reduce the overall tax burden on Social Security recipients by roughly $30 billion each year, according to an estimate by the Tax Foundation, which noted that this could accelerate the projected insolvency dates for the Social Security and Medicare trust funds by about a year.

Student Borrowers

For student loan borrowers, the legislation offers a mix of benefits and new restrictions.

On the plus side, Pell Grants will expand to cover short-term, workforce-focused programs, broadening access for students pursuing nontraditional education paths. Yet the bill also imposes new borrowing caps.

Graduate students will be restricted to $20,500 per year and a lifetime maximum of $100,000 for unsubsidized loans, while professional degrees such as law and medicine will face caps of $50,000 annually and $200,000 over a lifetime.

Parent borrowing through Parent PLUS loans will be limited to $20,000 per year per child, with a lifetime ceiling of $65,000. Meanwhile, Grad PLUS loans—which once allowed graduate students to borrow up to the full cost of attendance—will be eliminated altogether.

New borrowers will also have only two repayment options starting in mid-2026, either a standard fixed-payment plan or an income-driven repayment plan. The bill also eliminates deferments for unemployment or economic hardship, narrowing options for struggling borrowers to pause payments.

Medicaid Recipients

The legislation imposes significant changes to Medicaid, with about $1 trillion in cuts projected over the next decade, in part due to the fact that some 10 million people will lose coverage.

The largest cuts stem from new work requirements for able-bodied adults ($326 billion), tighter limits on how states can fund their programs through provider taxes ($191 billion), and stricter rules for state-directed Medicaid payments ($149 billion), according to an analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

The bill allocates $50 billion to support rural hospitals that could be affected by the cuts.

People on Food Stamps

Food assistance under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is also facing substantial changes.

States will be required to contribute between 5 and 15 percent of SNAP benefit costs, depending on their payment error rates, and must now cover 75 percent of administrative costs, up from the current 50 percent.

Work requirements will be expanded to include adults aged 55 to 64 and parents with children aged 14 and older. According to the Urban Institute, around 5.3 million households could see their benefits drop by at least $25 per month, with average monthly losses estimated at $146.

Small Businesses and Gig Workers

Small business owners, contractors, and gig economy workers will benefit from the permanent extension of the Section 199A pass-through business deduction.

Originally enacted in Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, this provision allows certain business owners to deduct up to 20 percent of their qualified business income. The deduction, previously set to expire after 2025, is now permanent under the new law.

Taken together, the One Big Beautiful Bill promises tax relief and new financial perks for millions of Americans—from young families to seniors—while tightening the belt on federal spending for programs such as Medicaid and SNAP.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 09:20

Texas Flood Disaster: 81 Dead As Search Intensifies; Cloud Seeding Startup Denies Involvement

Zero Hedge -

Texas Flood Disaster: 81 Dead As Search Intensifies; Cloud Seeding Startup Denies Involvement

The flash flood that sent a 30-foot wall of water surging down the Guadalupe River in Central Texas has claimed at least 81 lives as of early Monday morning. Law enforcement officials in Kerr County confirmed that at least ten girls from Camp Mystic remain missing. Amid speculation that the so-called "1-in-1,000-year storm" may have been triggered by cloud seeding, one of the weather modification operators in the region has denied any flight operations during the relevant timeframe. 

On Sunday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) warned that another round of storms could bring additional danger to the region over the next one to two days. The flooding across Central Texas is shaping up to be one of the deadliest freshwater flood events in the U.S. over the past half-century, with the death toll likely to surpass the 84 lives lost in the 1977 Johnstown, Pennsylvania flood.

"There's the potential for flash flooding, but there's no expectation of a water wall of almost 30 feet high," Gov. Abbott told reporters.

Local, state, and federal officials have outlined plans to expand search and rescue operations throughout Kerr County. Meanwhile, National Weather Service officials pushed back against claims by corporate media about staffing shortages. The White House's response to those claims was described as "disgusting."

Intense scrutiny has fallen on Rainmaker Technology, a California–based weather modification startup, amid speculation that cloud seeding may have contributed to the historic flooding.

CEO Augustus Doricko responded to baseless claims on X by saying, "Rainmaker did not operate in the affected area on the 3rd or 4th or contribute to the floods that occurred over the region." 

Doricko continued:

Overnight from July 3rd - 4th, moisture surged into the Hill Country from the Pacific as remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moved across the region. At 1:00 a.m. on July 4th, the National Weather Service (NWS), which we work closely with to maintain awareness of severe weather systems, issued a flash flood warning for San Angelo, Texas. Note, summer convective cloud seeding operations in Texas do not occur during overnight hours. At 4:00 a.m. on July 4th, the NWS issued a life-threatening emergency warning, and flooding ensued.

Did Rainmaker conduct any operations that could have impacted the floods? No. The last seeding mission prior to the July 4th event was during the early afternoon of July 2nd, when a brief cloud seeding mission was flown over the eastern portions of south-central Texas, and two clouds were seeded. These clouds persisted for about two hours after seeding before dissipating between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. CDT. Natural clouds typically have lifespans of 30 minutes to a few hours at most, with even the most persistent storm systems rarely maintaining the same cloud structure for more than 12-18 hours. The clouds that were seeded on July 2nd dissipated over 24 hours prior to the developing storm complex that would produce the flooding rainfall.

A senior meteorologist observed an unusually high moisture content prior to the event's arrival, using NWS sounding data. It was at this point that our meteorologists determined that we would suspend future operations indefinitely. As you can see, we suspended operations on July 2nd, a day before the NWS issued any flood warning.

Here are the flight logs for July from our South Texas Program

And more:

Related:

Other weather news:

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 06:55

Google Bets Big On Nuclear Fusion

Zero Hedge -

Google Bets Big On Nuclear Fusion

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

  • Google signed the first direct corporate power purchase agreement for nuclear fusion energy with Commonwealth Fusion Systems.

  • The global race to achieve commercial nuclear fusion is intensifying, with significant investments from the U.S., China, and the European Union.

  • Nuclear fusion promises to deliver abundant, clean energy, potentially revolutionizing the global energy landscape and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

For decades, researchers have been assessing the potential to develop nuclear fusion reactors, capable of producing abundant clean energy. However, despite several breakthroughs in recent years, most scientists agree that we are far from achieving the commercial rollout of this technology. Nevertheless, the barrier has not stopped widespread investment in the technology, the most recent of which came from U.S. tech giant Google.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) definition, Nuclear fusion is the process by which two light atomic nuclei combine to form a single heavier one while releasing massive amounts of energy. Fusion reactions take place in a state of matter called plasma – a hot, charged gas made of positive ions and free-moving electrons with unique properties distinct from solids, liquids, or gases…nuclei need to collide with each other at extremely high temperatures – around ten million degrees Celsius. When the nuclei come within a very close range of each other, the attractive nuclear force between them will outweigh the electrical repulsion and allow them to fuse. For this to happen, the nuclei must be confined within a small space to increase the chances of collision.

Nuclear fusion differs from nuclear fission, the current nuclear power production process used worldwide, which occurs when a neutron slams into a larger atom, forcing it to excite and split into two smaller atoms, also known as fission products. Additional neutrons are also released that can initiate a chain reaction. When each atom splits, a massive amount of energy is released. Uranium and plutonium are the most commonly used fuels for fission reactions. 

After decades of investment and research into nuclear fusion around the globe, several breakthroughs have put us one step closer to achieving a nuclear fusion reaction that could lead to the commercial rollout of fusion reactors. As of 2025, commercial fusion companies have raised over $9 billion in investment, and many governments now view fusion as the modern-day 'space race'. Currently, there are around 50 private companies worldwide pursuing commercial fusion, and many are hopeful that the previous timeline of around 30 years for a commercial rollout may have been overexaggerated. 

In May, a long-delayed nuclear fusion project, supported by over 30 countries, finally announced it was prepared to assemble the world's most powerful magnet. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, based in southern France and supported by the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and the European Union, aims to create an “invisible cage” to contain super-hot plasma particles that combine and fuse to release energy. Following years of delays, the start-up phase of the project is now scheduled to begin in 2033, when it is expected to start generating plasma.

In addition to the joint project, some countries are battling to be the first to achieve commercial nuclear fusion. In February, satellite images emerged revealing a giant facility in China. The images showed a massive nuclear fusion research facility, which many have taken to mean that China is racing ahead in nuclear fusion development. 

The Chinese government is spending between an estimated $1 billion to $1.5 billion annually in fusion research and development, according to the lead of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, Jean Paul Allain. Meanwhile, former President Biden was spending around $800 million a year, although the U.S. is also making significant progress in nuclear fusion. 

In the U.S., Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) engineers are developing a fusion project consisting of a doughnut-shaped machine known as a tokamak and called SPARC, which they hope will achieve a nuclear fusion reaction. CFS is a company that spun off from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2018. The firm has raised over $2 billion in funding to develop the machine, although it is not certain how long it will take and whether it will be able to achieve a net surplus of energy once it is up and running. However, the company’s target is to construct the world’s first fusion-fuelled power plant in Virginia by the early 2030s. 

This week, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, came to an agreement with CFS to purchase power from its nuclear fusion project. Google signed the technology's first direct corporate power purchase agreement, according to the tech company. CFS CEO and co-founder Bob Mumgaard stated, “Without partnership and without being bold and setting a goal and going for it, you won't ever reach over those challenges.” The financing forms part of a new funding round for CFS, after Google invested $1.8 billion into the firm during its previous 2021 round. 

Several countries around the world are racing to develop nuclear fusion technology that can be rolled out at the commercial level to support clean energy development and a shift away from fossil fuels. Achieving this level of fusion reaction would allow governments to provide far more abundant clean power than they are currently able to supply through fission and renewable energy projects. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 06:30

Tanker Explosion Reported At Russia's Ust-Luga Seaport

Zero Hedge -

Tanker Explosion Reported At Russia's Ust-Luga Seaport

An ammonia leak during loading operations on the LPG tanker "Eco Wizard" reportedly triggered an explosion, resulting in the tanker sinking at one of Russia's most strategically important ports, located in the Leningrad Region of northwest Russia on the Gulf of Finland. 

German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported that Eco Wizard experienced an explosion during onboard loading operations at Ust-Luga seaport. All crew members were safely evacuated...

On a tanker in the Leningrad Region of Russia, an ammonia leak occurred. This is already the sixth tanker this year that has been affected in some way by an explosion after entering Russian ports. The incident took place at the Russian port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea during the loading of the tanker Eco Wizard, according to the Russian Ministry of Transport.

Telegram channel "MNS | Moscow • News • Events," citing its sources, reports that an explosion occurred on board the tanker during ammonia pumping operations at the terminal of JSC "MHK Eurochem." As a result, holes appeared in the hull of the ammonia carrier, through which water began to flood. Eco Wizard sails under the flag of the Marshall Islands and arrived in Ust-Luga from Belgium.

Current location of Eco Wizard. 

The owner of the vessel is StealthGas Inc. Additional details about the owner:

Ust-Luga is one of the most strategically important ports in Russia—economically, logistically, and geopolitically, mainly because it handles over 100 million tons of cargo annually, including coal, oil products, fertilizers, and LNG. 

The incident marks the sixth tanker explosion at a Russian port this year, raising suspicions of possible sabotage by Ukrainian special forces or Western intelligence operations—mysterious explosions for sure.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 05:45

Germany's Pension Ponzi Scheme Is Collapsing: What Comes Next

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Pension Ponzi Scheme Is Collapsing: What Comes Next

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

If you’ve ever wanted to witness the slow-motion collapse of a Ponzi scheme, you might want to keep an eye on Germany’s public pension system.

Rhetorically and politically sugar-coated as a “pay-as-you-go” system — where today’s workers finance the retirement of yesterday’s — this bureaucratic redistribution leviathan is utterly dependent on an ever-growing pool of contributors. Problem is: Germany is aging, shrinking, and losing its industrial base.

Just in time for this demographic crunch — declining birth rates, increasing life expectancy, and longer pension payout durations — policymakers have decided to torch what’s left of the country’s industrial foundation in a green frenzy. Year after year, around €70 billion in value creation is being sent up the chimney, while more than half a million jobs have disappeared in recent years. That’s half a million fewer contributors to the pension Ponzi.

Tax Payer´s Money To Maintain The Illusion

To keep the locomotive rolling — even as it barrels in the wrong direction — the federal government now plugs the pension system’s gaping cash hole with roughly €123 billion annually from the general budget. In other words: workers pay a second time, in the form of taxes, to support the same unsustainable system they already fund through record-high payroll deductions.

With a government spending ratio now exceeding 50% of GDP, Germany has erected a full-scale hyperstate. Attached to its bloated bureaucracy are ever-growing administrative tentacles: layers of social insurance agencies and subsidized institutions now serving as the domestic enforcement arm of Brussels’ self-destructive Green Deal.

The coming deep economic depression, which has been foreshadowed by three years of quasi-permanent recession, will test just how resilient — and solvent — the savings and wealth accumulation of past generations truly are. It may be their prudence that softens the blow of the present generation’s green delirium.

Trapped in the Logic of a Ponzi Scheme and Keynesian Voodoo Economics

Entirely captive to the logic of Ponzi finance and Keynesian voodoo economics, Germany’s new federal government now plans its grand escape from all woes. With a debt hammer of one trillion euros over the coming years, it aims to wipe away every problem while putting the economy back on track.

Broadly speaking, the money is supposed to raise the defense budget to 5% of GDP, as demanded by the latest NATO summit, pour into the country’s crumbling infrastructure, and plug countless holes in the overstrained welfare apparatus.

We don’t need to go into detail here to recall that such stimulus-fueled bonfires leave behind nothing but more debt and inflation, misallocating printed capital into sectors with little or no real demand. It would suffice if politicians had even a passing familiarity with recent economic history — they’d realize they are once again slamming their heads against the very same wall as in decades past.

Socialists Debate Higher Contribution

Meanwhile, the SPD — junior coalition partner to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU-led government — is currently debating raising the pension contribution ceiling by €500 to €8,050 monthly salary. This increase would translate to an additional yearly burden of over €1,116 for anyone earning that amount. In other words, those who already carry the lion’s share of the country’s fiscal load as the last remaining productive pillars of society would be hit with yet another surcharge. The welfare state and social peace, they argue, are worth this sacrifice.

The coalition partner CDU’s reaction was not long in coming. There was unanimous rejection of the SPD proposal to once again burden the country’s top earners. Wolfgang Steiger, Secretary General of the CDU’s Economic Council, stated:

“We strictly oppose the move to raise the contribution ceiling in statutory health insurance. It would further increase the cost of labor.”

That sounds good at first and has its merits. After all, it’s about time fiscal policy wielded the Milei chainsaw instead of continuing with the socialist cornucopia. Yet recent history has shown us that the CDU flips positions faster than expected.

It is, not least, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s fault that trust in his party has hit rock bottom. After multiple broken campaign promises — like cutting the electricity tax or securing the country’s external borders once and for all — no one believes his party anymore.

After all, the community, acting as a global social welfare office, also needs to provide compensatory payments across other social insurance branches — which, thanks to successful recruitment efforts related to illegal migration, are facing significant special financing needs.

Germany is the Victim of Its Own Success

Two successful postwar generations built the capital and economic foundation on which the neo-socialist aberration could flourish — manifesting itself in an overgrown welfare system.

At the root of the problem lies not only the crushing tax and contribution burden in Germany but also its stagnating productivity, which together make rapid private capital formation nearly impossible for large parts of the population.

Even though politicians occasionally flirt with the idea of introducing elements of a capital-funded pension system, such proposals are a suicide mission in light of the sheer weight of the public pay-as-you-go system. Germans hold almost exclusively cash-based savings, which makes them highly vulnerable whenever the state — in concert with the ECB — fires up the inflation engine. On top of that, they remain deeply risk-averse investors, culturally and historically allergic to equity markets or private pension schemes.

Powerful Voting Block

The pension insurance provides the perfect case study. With over 21 million pension recipients, every reform attempt at the expense of this group faces a homogeneous voting block. Germany could raise the retirement age, which it is attempting to do to 67 years. It could reduce benefits, which it does not. Pensions are tied to inflation and productivity growth in the economy.

Politicians could reject the green-socialist agenda and return to the economic rationality of the free market to expand the contributor base and attract investment. They do not. The bureaucracy — the political front organization — is simply too powerful. Regulation is its product, and additional welfare recipients are its customers.

The path of least resistance will be taken: further increasing contribution rates for the productive pillars. Federal subsidies from the tax pool will supplement this to ease the pressure. But due to demographic development and the destructive economic policies in the EU, especially in Germany, the Ponzi scheme is steering toward an abyss.

* * * 

About the author: for over 25 years, Thomas Kolbe has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 05:00

Ayatollah Khamenei Makes First Public Appearance Since War With Israel, US

Zero Hedge -

Ayatollah Khamenei Makes First Public Appearance Since War With Israel, US

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since last month's 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, at the end of which the US sent B-2 bombers in an effort to destroy three key nuclear facilities.

Khamenei attended a religious ceremony in Tehran, which was featured in a video broadcast by state media. The 85-year-old leader attended the Imam Khomeini Mosque during an Ashura event, considered the most sacred day in the Shia Muslim calendar.

Handout: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/Reuters

The Supreme Leader is seen acknowledging a large crowd with waves and nods as attendees stand and chant slogans of devotion upon his arrival.

Khamenei had remained completely out of public sight since the surprise attack by Israel on June 13, with only prerecorded messages being released at various times.

There was widespread speculation that Israel was seeking to take out the Ayatollah if its warplanes or assassins had a chance. Many top-ranking military leaders as well as nuclear scientists were killed over the 12-day period, which saw Iran launch significant retaliatory attacks on Tel Aviv and other locations in Israel.

One key pre-recorded speech upon the end of fighting, issued by Khamenei on June 26, involved the top Shia religious cleric dismissing President Trump's demand for Iran’s submission. He declared that Iran had dealt "a slap to America’s face" by launching an attack on a US military base in Qatar; however, the Pentagon said all inbound projectiles were intercepted.

Trump responded by directing a message at Khamenei which said "You’re a man of great faith, respected in your country. But you need to be honest — you got beat to hell."

Given the obvious deep inroads Mossad intelligence has made into the Islamic Republic, Khamenei likely spent the conflict in a secret underground bunker known only to his closest aides.

Iran suffered severe damage, but Tel Aviv also showed signs of devastation from Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missile strikes:

At one point the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was attacked and reportedly blown up by Israeli warplanes.

But Iran's ballistic missiles also did severe damage on some Israeli military command centers, including apparent attacks on some Mossad locations in Israel.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 04:15

The UK Aims To Entrench Its Influence In Estonia In Order To Lead The Arctic-Baltic Front

Zero Hedge -

The UK Aims To Entrench Its Influence In Estonia In Order To Lead The Arctic-Baltic Front

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The possible deployment of nuclear-capable F-35As there, which could be equipped with US air-to-ground nukes since the UK no longer has its own, would give London a leading role in managing the joint Arctic-Baltic front against Russia that’s expected to remain even after the Ukrainian Conflict ends...

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Postimees newspaper after last month’s NATO Summit that his country is interested in hosting nuclear-capable F-35As from its allies, with the outlet suggesting that the UK could deploy some of the 12 that it plans to purchase after they’re transferred. The UK’s other announcement that it’ll join NATO’s dual-capable nuclear aircraft mission raises the chance that these jets could be equipped with US nukes since the UK no longer has its own air-to-ground ones.

The Wall Street Journal explained how “U.K. Shifts Nuclear Doctrine With Purchase of U.S. Jets”, which could lead to it obtaining the aforesaid nukes from the US, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that Estonia’s readiness to host nuclear-capable jets from any NATO country poses an “immediate danger” to Russia. All this follows Russia’s Foreign Spy Service warning in mid-June that the Brits and Ukrainians are cooking up two false flag provocations in the Baltic to rope Trump into the war.

Seeing as how it was assessed in late April that “Estonia Might Become Europe’s Next Trouble Spot”, it’s therefore likely that they’ll let the UK deploy nuclear-capable F-35As at Tapa Army Base, where it already has some troops as part of its largest overseas deployment. Putting everything together, it can therefore be concluded that the UK is actively expanding its sphere of influence in the Baltic on anti-Russian pretexts and via associated means, with Estonia playing a leading role by hosting its regional forces.

The Baltic front of the New Cold War is connected to the Arctic one due to Finland joining the alliance in 2023 and Russia responding by building up its forces along their border to deter NATO-emanating threats from there. This joint front, which is expected to remain tense even after the Ukrainian Conflict ends, will also see the construction of the “EU Defense Line” that’ll stretch along Finland’s, the Baltic States’, and Poland’s eastern borders with Russia and Belarus as a 21st-century Iron Curtain.

It’s within this context that Trump reportedly plans to pull some US troops out of Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), perhaps in exchange for Russia reducing its own presence in Belarus (possibly including its tactical nukes), as part of their plans to build a new European security architecture. Be that as it may, the “EU Defense Line” – which includes new border fortifications and the deployment of extra-regional countries’ forces like the UK’s and Germany’s – ensures that the EU-Russian security dilemma will persist.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently said that the EU is becoming an extension of NATO, which is confirmed by these countries’ role in the “EU Defense Line”, their reaffirmed commitment to Ukraine during the latest NATO Summit, and the EU’s €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan”. Therefore, the abovementioned security dilemma is also a NATO-Russian one, which might dramatically worsen even if there’s a mutual Russia-US pullback of forces in CEE should Trump give air-to-ground nukes to the UK.

The risk of World War III breaking out by miscalculation would remain sky-high in that event due to the ambiguity about whether every British-piloted F-35A that takes off from Estonia (even just for training) is equipped with American nukes as part of a first strike sneak attack. This dark scenario can only be averted by Trump refusing to give the UK air-to-ground nukes, but even if he declines, NATO-Russian tensions will still remain even after peace in Ukraine due to the increasingly British-led Arctic-Baltic front.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 03:30

Russia Army Captures Two More Settlements In 3rd Straight Month Of Advance In Ukraine's East

Zero Hedge -

Russia Army Captures Two More Settlements In 3rd Straight Month Of Advance In Ukraine's East

Russia's military announced on Sunday that its forces had taken control of two additional settlements in eastern Ukraine, specifically one in the Donetsk region and the other in Kharkiv.

The statements indicated the villages of Piddubne in Donetsk and Sobolivka in Kharkiv are now under Russian control, though the Ukrainian side has not yet acknowledged this.

Via Reuters

Piddubne had an estimated pre-war population of about 500 and is located merely 4 miles from the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border.

As for, Sobolivka, it lies about two miles west of Kupiansk and is outside of areas previously claimed by Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russia's Defense Ministry said in a couple of social media posts that its troops had “liberated” the settlements, and made reference to "Poddubnoye" and "Sobolevka" - according to the Russian spellings.

According to analysis presented in AFP, this marks the third straight month of Russian forces' advance in Ukraine's east, after stagnant front lined during the winter.

"Russia’s military advance in June accelerated for a third consecutive month and made its largest advance since November, according to AFP’s analysis of data from US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW)," AFP writes.

"The Russian army took 588 square kilometers (227 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in June, compared with 507 square kilometers in May, 379 square kilometers in April, and 240 square kilometers in March, according to ISW data," the publication adds.

Drone assaults from both sides continues to be a feature of the war, with Russia just days ago having unleashed an unprecedented 500 drones on Ukraine.

Kiev was targeted again overnight Friday, and the next day the city's mayor Vitali Klitschko said the number of people killed had increased to two, with an additional 31 people wounded.

But Ukraine has been touting some successes, with the country's General Staff on Saturday stating that it struck the Borisoglebsk air base in Russia’s Voronezh region. The statement characterized it as a strike on the home base of Russia’s Su-34, Su-35S and Su-30SM fighter jets.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 02:45

Germany Is Not Being Honest About Who Is Assaulting Children At Swimming Pools

Zero Hedge -

Germany Is Not Being Honest About Who Is Assaulting Children At Swimming Pools

Authored by eugyppius,

Migrants will not stop molesting and assaulting children at swimming pools in the best and most democratic Germany of all time...

In the last 10 years, we’ve welcomed a lot of ill-behaved and criminal young men into our country for no discernible reason, and along the way we’ve had the dubious privilege of discovering whole new categories of crime. There is the hostile-immigrant-drives-his-car-into-a-crowd-of-unsuspecting-innocents crime, there is the hostile-immigrant-stabs-a-bunch-of-random-people crime, there is the immigrant-gang-collectively-rape-underage-girl-in-park crime, and there is the immigrants-at-swimming-pool-molest-or-assault-various-children crime.

The latter has been stealing the headlines since the latest (allegedly carbon dioxide-induced) ‘heatwave’ in Germany. Recent stories include this one about a 25 year-old man of undisclosed background (who is almost certainly a migrant, otherwise authorities would not be so secretive about his origins) exposing himself to a bunch of underage teenagers at a pool in Asperg (Baden-Württemberg). Or this one, about a 21 year-old Syrian at a pool in Schweinfurt (Bavaria) caught exposing himself to four boys. Or this one, about men of “dark complexion” who severely beat an 18 year-old and threw him down some stairs. Or this disturbing one, about two Syrians who groped and assaulted a 12 year-old girl at a pool in Hof (Bavaria), forcing her beneath the water repeatedly and leaving her with a bloody nose.

Stories like this often come in groups, and what set off the present cascade was a particularly grim incident from June 22nd in Gelnhausen (Hessen), in which a group of Syrian migrants aged 18 to 28 molested eight or nine underage girls at the local pool. When the girls first complained about what was happening, pool personnel sent them back into the water. After this incident became a nationwide story, the Mayor of Gelnhausen, Christian Litzinger (CDU) gave an interview in which he appeared to ascribe the crime to “high temperatures”, which can cause “tempers to flare up”.

Naturally, this is but a partial list comprising only those news reports that I found, that anybody bothered to report to the police and that have made it into the press. The problem is vastly more pervasive than my brief summary might suggest. Personally, I haven’t been to a public pool in Germany in 10 years. I would never go again, and I would certainly never send my kids there. What used to be occasionally amusing places to get a bit of exercise have become crowded loci of urban chaos invariably full of drunken 20 year-old men from the global south. Everybody knows this is happening but it’s very politically incorrect to acknowledge that it’s happening, and so it’s become the occasion for a great deal of bizarre messaging from our progressive establishment.

A small group of peculiar lunatics have decided that what we really need to do is remind everybody that groping and assaulting and molesting is not okay. Thus we’ve been treated to an array of bizarre anti-swimming-pool-molestation messaging campaigns that just love to reverse the typical ethnicities of perpetrator and victim.

Consider the Cologne “Ich sag’s” (“I say it”) poster series. “Shoving is not funny!” screams this placard, with an awkward cartoon of a blonde German boy joining in harassing a brown girl:

Another poster from the same series informs viewers that “groping” is “forbidden” and likewise features a blonde German offender, because obviously that’s the problem demographic here.

All of that is irritating enough, but it’s nothing compared to the posters devised by a literal blue-haired city bureaucrat in Büren (near Paderborn), which take the woke programme so far around the bend that I had trouble believing they weren’t intended as subversive parodies. In the anti-groping category, Büren provides this insane PSA of a fat red-haired woman molesting a diminutive black man with a prosthetic leg, while a bizarre sea turtle named Tiki lurks beneath them and deplores unwanted touching.

Tiki the retard turtle, who apparently cannot even swim because he requires goggles and flotation devices, recurs in this anti-peeping placard, which – you guessed it – features a German man intruding upon a black woman.

Aside from other obvious objections, what strikes me about these posters is how infantilising and trivialising they all are – waving away an entire category of crime that is overwhelmingly, disproportionately committed by adult male migrants as some kind of cartoonish childhood problem that just requires a bit of schoolmarmish clarification to iron out.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 02:00

Analyzing Xi's Absence From The Latest BRICS Summit

Zero Hedge -

Analyzing Xi's Absence From The Latest BRICS Summit

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Chinese President Xi Jinping declined to travel to Rio for the latest BRICS Summit on the reported pretext of scheduling conflicts and having already met with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Ignacia Lula da Silva twice this year.

The South China Morning Post speculated that the real reason was that Xi didn’t want to be “perceived as a supporting actor” there given the state dinner that Lula will hold for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, who’ll be the first Indian premier to visit Brazil in nearly six decades.

Despite the border de-escalation deal that Xi and Modi agreed to during the last BRICS Summit, China and India still remain rivals, which recently manifested itself through reported Chinese support to Pakistan during the latest Indo-Pak Conflict and India’s perception that China is using the SCO against it. Accordingly, with Modi indisputably being the top VIP at the group’s latest annual gathering, it might therefore indeed be the case that Xi felt uncomfortable and thus declined to travel there to attend.

This hypothesis directly leads to the question of why Lula agreed to make Modi’s visit an official state one with an associated dinner despite him traveling there to attend a multilateral event. While it could just be for reasons of protocol considering the historical significance of his visit, Lula might have also calculated that it could expand Brazil’s balancing act from its hitherto mostly binary Sino-US nature into a more complex one through the inclusion of India. That could in turn alleviate some pressure from Trump.

Lula, whose evolution into a liberal-globalist during his third term (as documented in the several dozen analyses enumerated at the end of this one here) led to him closely aligning with Biden, endorsed Kamala right before the last US presidential election and recently told Trump to stop tweeting so much. All of that naturally put him in Trump’s crosshairs precisely at the moment when Brazil and the US are engaged in trade and energy talks whose successful outcome is more important to Brazil than to the US.

As luck would have it, Modi’s decision to attend the latest BRICS Summit in person and thus become the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Brazil in nearly six decades provided Lula with an opportunity to give him a state visit, which might have been responsible for Xi’s absence from the event as was reported. From the US’ perspective, there might indeed be a connection between these two developments, which could ingratiate Lula with Trump if he comes to share that perception at his advisors’ suggestion.

After all, this is the first time that Xi won’t attend a BRICS Summit in any capacity, not even remotely. The resultant optics fuel Western media speculation about China’s commitment to the group, which can manipulate some of the global public’s views regardless of its veracity. This sequence of events – China’s Indian rival (which is still friendly with the US in spite of the US’ latest efforts to subordinate it) visiting Brazil, Xi declining to attend the BRICS Summit, and Western media’s spin – aligns with US interests.

Accordingly, Xi’s absence from the latest BRICS Summit (regardless of the real reason[s] behind it) might stimulate US-Brazilian ties and comparatively reduce China’s role in Brazil’s balancing act if India’s role therein soon becomes more significant, which can altogether be considered a setback for China. To be sure, it’s not a major one and it could potentially be reversed through skillful Chinese diplomacy, but it’s still difficult for any honest observer to describe this outcome as meaningless, let alone a success.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/06/2025 - 23:55

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