Individual Economists

TSMC's Bullish AI Outlook Prompts Goldman To Say 'Anyone Hoping For A Pullback Will Get Disappointed'

Zero Hedge -

TSMC's Bullish AI Outlook Prompts Goldman To Say 'Anyone Hoping For A Pullback Will Get Disappointed'

Europe's semiconductor stocks moved higher on Thursday, with ASML Holdings surging to a record high after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a 35% jump in fourth-quarter profit and signaled plans to boost capital spending by nearly 40% this year.

TSMC, a supplier to tech giants including Nvidia and Apple, raised its 2026 capex guidance to $52 billion to $56 billion, up from a previous estimate of $40 billion. Management also indicated that the three-year investment plan will be significantly higher, reducing the likelihood of a near-term pullback in spending.

"Our business in the fourth quarter was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies," said Wendell Huang, Senior VP and CFO of TSMC. "Moving into first quarter 2026, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies."

It reported a net profit of $16 billion for the October-December quarter, a 35% surge from a year earlier, exceeding analysts' average estimates.

"We expect our business to be supported by continuous strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies," Huang said. He said spending would be "significantly higher" in the next three years.

An analyst asked TSMC chairman and CEO C. C. Wei about the risk that the AI investment cycle is a bubble. Wei replied, "I'm also very nervous about it, you bet ... AI is real. Not only real, but it's also starting to grow into our daily life."

Earlier, Goldman analyst Sean Johnstone told clients, "Anyone hoping for a pullback is going to be disappointed."

Johnstone continued:

SEMICAP/AI POSTIVE as TSMC has been seen as major bottleneck for AI given how cautious mgt have been and now its raised capex ABOVE the bulls expectations. There was lots of debate in on the name in esp. around capex its guided well above both sellside and buyside at $52-56bn and saying the 3 year will be significantly higher. For 2026 sellside was $45-46bn, Buyside $47-52bn hoping the 2026 initial guidance range would include a $50bn. Anyone hoping for a pullback is going to be disappointed.

Q4 beat on GM at 62.3% street just over 60%, and operating profit at 54% (Street 51%). Guides Q1 above: 1Q rev +4% q/q or +38% y/y (Q1 guide is top end of bulls plus its guided FY at 30% - bulls expected TSMC to guide to 25% and walk it up over the year. The 5 year CAGR of 25%); GM further expands q/q to 63-65% driven by higher UTR and cost efficiencies, OM 54-55%. Overseas fab expansion would be the dilute from 2h26 by 2-3ppt. Capex FY25 was$40.9bn…. Note VAT an underweight for many saw orders beat this morning and GIR expect to see MSD u/g to cons, real risk of a squeeze

MORE +VE PRESS:SK Hynix is speeding up new fab operations to meet surging DRAM memory chip demand, Reuters reports, citing CEO Sungsoo Ryu. OpenAI's first AI chip, Titan, will launch by end-2026, media report. Co-developed with Broadcom, it will be made on TSMC's 3nm mfg process. Titan II, the next-gen chip, will use TSMC's A16 process. OpenAI has tapped Samsung's 2nm Exynos chip for its AI earbuds, 'Sweetpea'. Intel is reported evaluating price hike for its server CPU following AMD who raised CPU including Ryzen 9000 earlier more pressure on PC names

Software remained under pressure yesterday and today TSMC numbers likely to exacerbate the software vs. Semis vs. trade already -15% ytd. Plus sentiment not helped with Claude Cowork

In markets, the Taiwan Stock Exchange closed up 80 bps at 30,941. TSMC's earnings provided a bullish start for European chip stocks, notably ASML, and US chip companies, which moved higher in premarket trading. TSM shares in New York are up 6%.

This is certainly not the earnings report AI bubble bears were hoping for, as Goldman analysts echoed one another, saying that anyone hoping for a pullback is unlikely to get it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 08:10

Witkoff Announces Start Of 2nd Phase Of Gaza Peace Plan

Zero Hedge -

Witkoff Announces Start Of 2nd Phase Of Gaza Peace Plan

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Presidential peace envoy Steve Witkoff, on Jan. 14, announced the start of the second phase of President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan.

Displaced Palestinians walk through floodwaters following heavy rains in Gaza City on Dec. 15, 2025. Omar al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images

In an X post on Wednesday, Witkoff said the second phase will move Gaza from an initial cease-fire into a period that will see the demilitarization of Hamas and the establishment of a technocratic governance model.

He said the second phase will also see the start of reconstruction for the war-torn territory.

The Gaza peace plan began in October, and the overall strategy is supposed to proceed in three phases and achieve the 20-point plan Trump laid out in September.

Phase Two establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), and begins the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel,” Witkoff wrote.

It remains unclear who will comprise Gaza’s interim government. Trump has repeatedly described this government as the Gaza “Board of Peace” and said he will chair the body.

Trump’s 20-point plan includes an offer of amnesty for Hamas members who willingly lay down their arms, as well as an offer of safe passage for Hamas members seeking to leave the territory.

The scope of Gaza’s reconstruction is also unclear.

In October, a representative for the United Nations’ Development Programme shared an estimate that Gaza had sustained around $70 billion in damages over the course of more than two years of conflict.

The first phase of the deal was supposed to include the release of all Israeli hostages, living and dead, held by Hamas.

Thus far, Hamas has returned the remains of 27 out of 28 deceased hostages.

Witkoff warned that Hamas must return the remains of the last person.

“The United States expects Hamas to comply fully with its obligations, including the immediate return of the final deceased hostage. Failure to do so will bring serious consequences,” Witkoff wrote.

Israel and Hamas have traded accusations of other cease-fire violations since October.

On Oct.19, the Israeli military accused Hamas of firing on and carrying out an explosive attack on Israeli troops operating in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip, killing two of their soldiers. Hamas’s armed wing denied knowledge of the attack and said it had lost contact with its forces in Rafah.

On Dec. 13, Israeli forces carried out a lethal airstrike targeting a Hamas commander they said was involved in continuing efforts to procure weapons and undermine the cease-fire. Hamas said civilians were killed in a strike that day, and argued Israeli military’s operations were undermining cease-fire efforts.

This is a developing story and will be updated with additional details.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 07:55

US Navy Sailor Sentenced To Nearly 17 Years In Prison For Selling Military Secrets To China

Zero Hedge -

US Navy Sailor Sentenced To Nearly 17 Years In Prison For Selling Military Secrets To China

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A former U.S. Navy sailor who had been found guilty of providing the Chinese communist regime with sensitive U.S. military information in exchange for money was sentenced to 200 months in prison, the Justice Department said on Monday.

The Department of Justice in Washington on Feb. 12, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Wei Jinchao, also known as Patrick Wei, was arrested on espionage charges in August 2023 after reporting for duty aboard the USS Essex, an amphibious assault ship based in San Diego.

Wei, a naturalized U.S. citizen, was convicted by a federal jury in San Diego of espionage and five other criminal counts, including conspiracy to commit espionage, and unlawful export of, and conspiracy to export, technical data related to defense articles in violation of the Arms Export Control Act and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, after a five-day trial in August 2025.

Prosecutors had asked the court to sentence Wei to 21 years and 10 months in prison, arguing that his actions jeopardized U.S. national security and betrayed the country that granted him citizenship.

Defendant compromised the U.S. Navy’s entire fleet of amphibious assault ships by sending the Chinese Government thousands of pages of technical information about the fleet’s complex ship systems and how the U.S. Navy operates and maintains those systems,” Assistant U.S. Attorney John Parmley wrote in a government sentencing memorandum filed earlier this month.

“It is a betrayal of America and its people, and it often puts real lives at risk. It also can cost the Government huge amounts of money when it must adjust its military planning, operations, and tactics to account for compromises in informational security.”

In a letter submitted to the court before sentencing, his mother, Wei Mingli, appealed for leniency, recounting the hardships her son faced growing up. She said that he was raised without a father and left home around age 10 to attend boarding school because she had to care for her ailing mother at the time. She portrayed her son as a “devoted Christian” and a kind person who continued to help others, even while in custody.

Patrick Wei’s attorney had sought a much lighter sentence of two years and six months. Wei also wrote a letter to the court expressing remorse for sharing information with an individual he said he once considered a friend.

Now 25 years old, Wei apologized for “wasting taxpayers’ money and eroding people’s trust” in him, and pleaded for “love and mercy” in determining the sentence.

Yes, I screwed up,” he wrote. “If you could find in yourself to be able to show me some love and mercy in your Honorable conclusion, I would, without fear of contradiction, pay it forward and help others for the rest of my life.”

Details

According to the indictment, Wei was recruited through social media by a Chinese intelligence officer posing as a naval enthusiast affiliated with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, a state-owned giant shipbuilder, in February 2022.

About a week later, Wei confided in a friend in the U.S. Navy that the Chinese officer had offered him $500 for daily information on which ships were docked at the San Diego base. Wei told his friend that he was “no idiot” and that what he was being asked to do was commit espionage.

At the time, Wei was a petty officer and worked as a machinist’s mate, which gave him access to sensitive national defense information, including data on U.S. Navy ships and their weapons, according to court documents.

Prosecutors said that, starting in March 2022, Wei sent the Chinese intelligence officer multiple photos and videos of the Essex, along with information about the ship’s defensive weapon systems.

In May 2022, the Chinese officer sent him money and congratulated him on becoming a naturalized U.S. citizen.

In June 2022, Wei provided 30 technical and mechanical manuals containing export-control warnings and details of various operational systems aboard the Essex and similar U.S. Navy vessels, including power, steering, aircraft, and deck elevators, as well as damage and casualty control.

In return for transmitting these documents, Wei received $5,000. The Chinese officer informed Wei that 10 of the manuals he provided had not been seen before and were “proved useful,” according to his indictment.

During that same month, the Chinese officer specifically requested that Wei provide information about the number and training of U.S. Marines participating in an international maritime warfare exercise, as well as photographs of military equipment. Wei complied by sending several images of military hardware.

In August 2022, Wei received $1,200 from the Chinese intelligence officer after passing along another 26 documents detailing the power structures and operations of the Essex and similar vessels, which contained data subject to export controls and information classified as “critical technology” by the U.S. Navy.

Wei continued to transmit other sensitive data to the officer throughout 2023, including information about the layout and location of weapons systems, repairs to the Essex, and mechanical vulnerabilities of similar vessels. The officer instructed Wei to keep their relationship discreet and to destroy any evidence that could reveal their activities.

In the press release announcing the sentence against Wei, Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Eisenberg said: “Wei swore loyalty to the United States when he joined the Navy and reaffirmed that oath when he became a citizen. He then accepted the solemn responsibility of protecting this Nation’s secrets when the United States entrusted him with sensitive Navy information.

“He made a mockery of these commitments when he chose to endanger our Nation and our servicemembers by selling U.S. military secrets to a Chinese intelligence officer for personal profit. Today’s sentence reflects our commitment to ensuring those who sell our Nation’s secrets pay a very high price for their betrayal.”

Roman Rozhavsky, assistant director of the FBI’s counterintelligence division, said the sentencing served as “a reminder that those who choose to put personal gain above their oath and the safety of our nation will be brought to justice.”

FBI Director Kash Patel also pledged to collaborate with other agencies to defend the United States against foreign intelligence threats.

If you betray the United States, endanger our warfighters, and put personal profit over your oath, you will be found, you will be exposed, and you will pay a heavy price,” Patel wrote on X.

On the same day Wei was arrested, another U.S. Navy sailor, Zhao Wenheng, who was based out of Naval Base Ventura County in California, was also taken into custody. Zhao, also found guilty of selling military secrets to China, was sentenced to 27 months in prison in January 2024.

Frank Fang and Eva Fu contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 07:15

Are Deportations Making Affordability A Winning Issue For The GOP?

Zero Hedge -

Are Deportations Making Affordability A Winning Issue For The GOP?

Democrats entered 2026 confident they could make “affordability” the rallying cry that would win back suburban voters and propel them back into the majority. But an inconvenient political twist has upended that plan: Donald Trump is the one actually delivering on affordability - and doing it in ways his opponents are almost certain to despise.

The foundation of this shift is the administration’s aggressive crackdown on immigration. ICE deportations under Trump have sharply reduced the number of illegal migrants in the country - which, according to the White House - is easing the enormous housing demand that exploded under Joe Biden thanks to his open borders policies. 

In short, rents and home prices in many major metro areas are becoming more affordable. Though we would of course note that correlation is not necessarily causation.

According to new estimates from Brookings Institution economists, more immigrants left the United States than entered last year - the first time that’s happened in at least five decades. Net migration fell by between 10,000 and 295,000 in 2025, driven by everything from a near-closure of the southern border to tightened visa limits, new fees, and the suspension of nearly all refugee programs. 

Economists and industry experts say the housing impact is already being felt. 

For example, in San Antonio, developers built aggressively in 2025, expecting another surge of migrant renters. That didn’t happen, so landlords began slashing prices to fill new units. Kevin Lynn, founder of U.S. Tech Workers and a long-time critic of large-scale visa programs, called it basic economics. “When you crack down on immigration, legal and illegal, housing costs naturally drop,” he told Breitbart, describing the decline as a textbook case of supply and demand.

Lynn pointed to Lancaster County, Pennsylvania - a community once labeled “the refugee capital of America.” There, he said, newly renovated apartments are now being advertised with three months of free rent because demand from immigrants has vanished. “This is what happens when you take the immigrants out of the equation,” Lynn said.

It’s a stark reversal from the years under Joe Biden, when roughly 14 million legal and illegal migrants entered the country, coinciding with surging rents and home prices that outpaced wage growth. Now that the pressure is easing, the administration has an answer ready for Democrats hoping to campaign on “affordability.” Trump’s team is framing border enforcement not only as a public-safety measure but as a direct economic benefit for working households.

“Rents are down. You know the story that the Biden administration doesn’t want to talk about: The mass unfettered immigration that pushed up rents, especially for working Americans,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month. “The connection between illegal immigration and skyrocketing housing costs is as clear as day.” 

The White House clearly believes this narrative could neutralize one of the Democrats’ key talking points heading into the midterms. 

Falling rents, rising wages, and higher labor participation are giving younger voters something they’ve struggled to find for years: a sense of stability. Lower immigration is also contributing to reduced crime and drug deaths, further tying economic security to Trump’s immigration policies.

And then there’s the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the administration believes will play a huge role in giving Americans the relief they’ve been craving. The legislation aims to lock in lower individual and corporate tax rates, expand full business expensing, and let voters see more of their paychecks. The administration describes it as a direct strike on the cost-of-living crisis.

Other key provisions include higher SALT deduction caps for homeowners, no tax on tips and overtime, and a modest expansion of charitable deductions. Seniors will also see new tax breaks on Social Security income. Buyers of U.S.-made vehicles would get fresh incentives. Each piece will show that while Democrats talk the talk on “affordability” the GOP walks the walk.

Democrats built their midterm plans around the assumption that they could own the affordability issue. Trump is instead redefining it on his terms: fewer migrants competing for jobs and housing, stronger wages, cheaper rents, and more disposable income. Republicans hope that by the time voters head to the polls, “affordability” may no longer be a Democratic talking point. And it might just work.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 06:45

10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning train WFH reads:

For Years, Powell Avoided Fighting Trump. That’s Over. After receiving grand jury subpoenas Friday, Powell spent the weekend deciding how to respond. By Sunday, he had his answer. (Wall Street Journal)

The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market: For the first time since 2020, the share of U.S. homeowners with mortgages set at 6% and higher, exceeds those with mortgages below 3%. (Axi0s) but see also Why almost none of the homes burned in LA have been rebuilt since last year’s fires: The wildfires destroyed 13,000 homes. In Los AngelesCounty, just seven have been rebuilt; of the 22,500 homes lost in the most destructive fires between 2017 and 2020, only 38% have been rebuilt to date. (Grist)

U.S workers just took home their smallest share of capital since 1947, at least: Decades of Tax Cuts and Oligopoly rule have undone all of the post World War Two MiddleClass economic gains. (Fortune)

How have prices changed in a year? NPR checked 114 items at Walmart: The past year also brought a global trade war, as President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly all imports. And the world continued to grapple with extreme weather, from droughts to downpours. (NPR)

The Curious Cult of Aldi: How an 80-year-old German discount chain became America’s hottest grocer. (Businessweek)

Florida Explores Ditching Property Tax as Home Prices Soar: State lawmakers have filed a raft of bills aimed at reducing property taxes—or gutting them altogether (Wall Street Journal)

Crispr Pioneer Launches Startup to Make Tailored Gene-Editing Treatments: Aurora Therapeutics, cofounded by Nobel Prize–winning scientist Jennifer Doudna, plans to use gene editing and a new FDA regulatory pathway to commercialize treatments for rare diseases. (Wired)

The Biggest Myth About Trump’s Base (And Why Many Believe It): The MAGA faithful aren’t deserting their leader. (The Atlantic)

Here’s Why the Iranian Regime Seems Invincible: And why it shouldn’t stop the citizens currently fighting for freedom. (Persuasion)

Peter Gabriel Lines Up a New Year of Lunar Releases: With o\i The singer will drop a new single every month in 2026. (Pitchfork)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler and his University of Chicago Booth School colleague Alex Imas on the update and reissue of his classic book The Winner’s Curse.

My Favorite Performance Chart For 2025

Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

President To Sign Bill Allowing Return Of Whole Milk In Schools

Zero Hedge -

President To Sign Bill Allowing Return Of Whole Milk In Schools

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump will sign the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act on Wednesday, overhauling previous U.S. Department of Agriculture guidelines that required milk served in school cafeterias to be fat-free or low-fat.

President Donald Trump speaks as Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. looks on during a Make America Healthy Again Commission Event in the White House on May 22, 2025. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Now, schools have the freedom to serve whole milk, flavored or unflavored, as well as organic milk.

The Senate passed the bill unanimously in November; it easily cleared the House a month later. It was sent to Trump on Jan. 6.

A 2 p.m. signing ceremony is planned in which the president will reverse an Obama-era policy that banned whole milk in public schools, White House officials confirmed to NTD, sister media outlet of The Epoch Times.

This is common sense and great news for America’s children, dairy farmers, and parents who deserve choice, not big government mandates. President Trump is delivering on his commitment to Make America Healthy Again,” said Taylor Rogers, a White House spokeswoman.

The legislation also stipulates that schools must provide milk substitutes to students with dietary restrictions upon presentation of a letter from a parent or licensed physician.

Additionally, liquid milk no longer counts toward the 10 percent maximum allowance of saturated fat calories.

Rep. John Mannion (D-N.Y.), who sponsored the House bill, previously said this legislation goes a long way in helping U.S. dairy farmers while also providing students the diets they need to “thrive in the classroom.”

As a teacher for almost 30 years, I saw firsthand how proper nutrition supports student success,” said Mannion, whose district contains many dairy farms.

A 2012 federal law prohibited school cafeterias from serving whole milk, which led to a significant decline in student milk consumption in the past decade, according to Mannion’s Dec. 15 news release.

In the two years between 2014 and 2016 alone, schools served 213 million fewer half pints of milk despite rising public school enrollment.

Mannion also said children over the age of 4 are not getting the recommended daily dairy as outlined by federal dietary guidelines aimed at promoting stronger bone health, lower blood pressure, and reduced risks of Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

By contrast, the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine, a nonprofit agency represented by about 17,000 physicians, has criticized this legislation, saying that more saturated fats are unhealthy options for children.

Instead, the committee said, Congress should push soy milk as a healthier source of protein, and alternative healthy calcium sources such as nuts, kale, broccoli, and fortified orange juice.

In a related action last week, the federal departments of agriculture and health and human services unveiled a new “upside-down” food pyramid that reduces the recommended amount of grains and healthy fats and oils while increasing the amount of meats and vegetables.

Those guidelines, which will be updated every five years, also provide a stronger stance against sugar and alcohol consumption while promoting unprocessed or lesser-processed foods with saturated fats like yogurt, cheese, and whole milk.

Previous guidelines contained more sweeping generalizations against all types of saturated fats, federal officials said.

“These guidelines replace corporate-driven assumptions with common-sense goals and gold-standard scientific integrity,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Jan. 7.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 06:15

Senators Want To Ban Chinese Students From Government Labs

Zero Hedge -

Senators Want To Ban Chinese Students From Government Labs

Eleven US senators wrote to Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Tuesday seeking to ban Chinese nationals from US national labs - contending that their access undermines the United States' position in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. 

The Department of Energy building in Washington on Nov. 13, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The DOE notably oversees 17 national laboratories and funds research to advance various technologies, including energy, environmental, nuclear, and others. In November, President Donald Trump ordered the DOE to launch 'Genesis Mission,' with a goal of coordinating a national effort to accelerate AI innovation "comparable in urgency and ambition to the Manhattan Project."

In their letter, the Senators expressed concern over the thousands of Chinese nationals who have access to these national lab sites, which contain sensitive information and technology. In FY2024, around 3,200 Chinese nationals were approved for such access, which the lawmakers noted does not include lawful permanent residents of the United States, "which means there are likely hundreds, perhaps thousands, more individual Chinese citizens working in our labs," they wrote.

"Continuing to give access to the cutting-edge work performed at these laboratories to Chinese nationals who will turn everything they know over to the [Chinese Communist Party] directly undermines the purpose of Genesis Mission," reads the letter, which was co-signed by Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), James Risch (R-Idaho), Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Todd Young (R-Ind.), and Ted Budd (R-N.C.).

The Senators recommend that the department implement a policy to prohibit access by Chinese nationals to national laboratory sites, information, and technology. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, underpinning the espionage concern is the fact that Beijing has passed laws to require all Chinese citizens to assist in the state’s intelligence efforts, as well as the regime’s practice of transnational repression.

Human rights organization Freedom House ranks the Chinese regime among the worst transnational repressors, using tactics such as threatening family members residing in China in order to coerce overseas Chinese to participate in state operations.

The lawmakers cite such coercion as one reason that even proper vetting of these scientists is “not a sufficient safeguard.”

Additionally, the volume of individuals outpaces the department’s capacity to vet them, and China has made efforts to obfuscate links to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the lawmakers said.

The best way to protect Genesis Mission, and the rest of the important work done throughout the labs, is to put an end to Chinese national scientists and researchers working at them,” the letter reads.

The request comes on the heels of a December House report that found the Energy Department funded research in AI, quantum, and other advanced technologies with defense applications, conducted in partnership with Chinese researchers and institutes, citing more than 4,000 research papers published between June 2023 and June 2025.

The report found that 2,000 Chinese nationals worked at national laboratories as of 2025. The lawmakers behind the report said they had interviewed department executives and found their rationale “naive.”

“Multiple DOE executives ... defended [the Chinese nationals’] continued presence ... by claiming, in effect, that we want them in our labs so they can see how advanced we are—and go back to China telling their colleagues, thus giving up on beating the United States,” the report reads.

The House Select Committee on the CCP has also published reports that show funding for Chinese defense research through grants from other government agencies, including the Pentagon.

The Department of Energy did not respond to an inquiry from The Epoch Times by the time of publication.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 05:45

Tyrants

Zero Hedge -

Tyrants

Authored by Lars Møller via American Thinker,

History is replete with revolutionary figures who transformed society through “vision”, “vanity”, and “violence” - a vicious triad covering the strategy of being ideologically uncompromising, outmaneuvering rivals, and eliminating political opposition, respectively.

From Wikimedia Commons: Execution of Louis XVI (Charles Monnet, 1794)

Maximilien Robespierre and Vladimir Lenin stand out as architects of radical political transformation. Bridging the cultural divide, their leadership styles and psychological profiles show striking similarities. Both men were pedantic ideologues driven by an unshakable belief in their own moral and intellectual superiority.

A comprehensive personality profiling of Robespierre and Lenin requires an analytical framework that transcends ideological taxonomy and historical contingency. While both men operated under conditions of revolutionary crisis, their responses to this strain were neither inevitable nor merely situational. Rather, the extremes of savagery that they authorized, rationalized, and sustained reflect enduring psychological structures that shaped their political conduct. Revolutionary atrocity, in this sense, is best understood, not as an accidental excess of upheaval but as an expressive manifestation of personality under pressure.

At the center of both profiles lies a distinctive form of narcissism, albeit one that diverges from popular caricature. Neither Robespierre nor Lenin cultivated flamboyance or sensual excess. Instead, they embodied a restrained and severe narcissism, grounded in ascetic discipline and intellectual or moral exclusivity. This “austere narcissism” is particularly insidious, as it disguises grandiosity beneath the rhetoric of sacrifice and historical necessity. Both men perceived themselves as uniquely attuned to the demands of history, endowed with a clarity unavailable to others. This conviction constituted the psychological foundation of their authority and simultaneously foreclosed the possibility of self-doubt.

Robespierre’s personality was organized primarily around moral absolutism. His self-conception as l’Incorruptible was not a mere political posture but a deeply internalized identity. Personal frugality, emotional restraint, and rhetorical solemnity served as symbolic reinforcements of moral superiority. From a psychological standpoint, this configuration suggests a rigid superego structure in which ethical norms were internalized as categorical imperatives rather than negotiable principles. Moral conflict could not be accommodated; it had to be eradicated.

This psychic architecture is indispensable for understanding Robespierre’s embrace of terror during 1793–94. The Law of Suspects, enacted on September 17, 1793, dramatically expanded the definition of counter-revolutionary guilt to include vague categories such as “enemies of liberty” and those lacking “civic virtue”. In practice, this legislation enabled the arrest of tens of thousands on the basis of suspicion alone. The resulting mass incarcerations and executions were not only tactical responses to military threats but also expressions of Robespierre’s moralized worldview. Political ambiguity itself became criminal.

The Revolutionary Tribunal exemplified this moral reductionism. Legal safeguards were progressively dismantled, culminating in the Law of the Great Terror, enacted on June 10, 1794, which eliminated defense counsel and limited verdicts to acquittal or death. The acceleration of executions—over 1,300 in Paris alone within six weeks—reflected not panic but moral certainty. Violence functioned as ethical enforcement. The guillotine, with its mechanical regularity, transformed killing into procedure, allowing Robespierre to experience mass death as impersonal justice rather than cruelty. Psychologically, such depersonalization constitutes a dissociative defense: suffering is abstracted, responsibility displaced, and violence reclassified as virtue.

Robespierre’s increasing hostility towards former allies further reveals the fragility underlying his moral absolutism. The executions of Georges Danton and Camille Desmoulins—longstanding revolutionaries accused of “indulgence”—illustrate how moral rigidity devolved into paranoid purification. Dissent was no longer external but internal. The purges thus served not only political consolidation but also psychic stabilization. Each execution reaffirmed Robespierre’s self-image as guardian of revolutionary purity against an ever-expanding field of corruption.

Lenin’s psychological profile, though equally absolutist, was structured along a different axis. His narcissism was intellectual rather than moral. Lenin did not portray himself as virtuous but as scientifically correct. Authority derived from his conviction that he alone grasped the objective laws of historical development. This intellectual narcissism produced profound disdain for spontaneity, pluralism, and moral hesitation.

Lenin’s approach to violence during and after the October Revolution exemplifies this orientation. The establishment of the Cheka in December 1917 marked the institutionalization of terror as a permanent instrument of governance. Unlike the revolutionary tribunals of 1793, the Cheka operated extrajudicially from the outset. Its remit included summary execution, hostage-taking, and mass repression. Lenin explicitly endorsed these measures. In correspondence from 1918, he called for “merciless mass terror” against class enemies, insisting that hesitation would doom the revolution.

The Red Terror of 1918–22 provides stark illustration. Following the attempted assassination of Lenin in August 1918, the regime launched widespread reprisals. Thousands were executed without trial, often selected, not for actions but for social origin. Former nobles, priests, merchants, and officers were targeted as categories rather than individuals. The mass shootings at Petrograd and Moscow, as well as the use of concentration camps—precursors to the Gulag system—demonstrate how violence was bureaucratized and de-personalized. Psychologically, this categorical annihilation reflects cognitive reductionism: human beings were reduced to structural obstacles to be removed. 

The suppression of the Tambov peasant uprising (1920–22) further illustrates Lenin’s instrumental rationality. When peasants resisted grain requisitioning, the Red Army deployed poison gas, mass deportations, and hostage executions. Lenin personally authorized these measures, framing them as necessary to break “kulak resistance”. The scale and severity of the repression—tens of thousands killed or interned—underscore his willingness to annihilate entire populations in pursuit of economic and ideological objectives. Emotional detachment was not incidental but functional: empathy would have impeded efficiency.

Similarly revealing was the crushing of the Kronstadt rebellion in 1921. The sailors, once celebrated as heroes of the revolution, demanded free elections and an end to Bolshevik repression. Lenin and Trotsky responded with overwhelming force. Thousands were executed or sent to labor camps. The psychological significance lies in the readiness to destroy former allies once they ceased to serve the ideological script. Dissent, regardless of origin, was pathologized as counter-revolution.

Despite stylistic differences, Robespierre and Lenin shared a fundamental incapacity to recognize others as autonomous moral agents. From a developmental psychology perspective, this suggests impaired “mentalization”. Opposition was interpreted, not as disagreement but as moral corruption or structural deviance. Consequently, violence acquired an air of inevitability.

Both leaders also exhibited marked emotional austerity and social withdrawal. Their reluctance to engage in ordinary social life reinforced authority but deepened isolation. Isolation intensified suspicion. Deprived of corrective feedback, both increasingly relied on internal narratives of betrayal. Terror became self-reinforcing: fear confirmed paranoia, paranoia justified repression, and repression entrenched power.

This dynamic accords with established models of authoritarian personality, which emphasize the interplay between dominance and insecurity. Such leaders are not psychologically secure. Their need for absolute control compensates for internal fragility. Power functions as an external stabilizer, imposing order upon both society and the self. 

The handling of failure further illuminates these personalities. Neither Robespierre nor Lenin demonstrated genuine self-criticism. Military setbacks, economic collapse, or popular resistance were invariably attributed to insufficient repression. Violence thus substituted for reflection. Rather than revising assumptions, both escalated coercion. 

The persistence of terror beyond immediate necessity underscores its expressive function. Once institutionalized, violence became ritualized, reaffirming alignment with virtue or history. Each execution symbolized inevitability and correctness. Atrocity communicated omnipotence.

The contrast between Robespierre’s “moralized terror” and Lenin’s “instrumental terror” reflects divergent emotional economies within a shared absolutist framework. Robespierre’s violence was theatrical and ethical; Lenin’s procedural and technical. Yet both converged in their effect: the annihilation of individuality and the normalization of death as a political tool.

Ultimately, the personality profiling of Robespierre and Lenin demonstrates how revolutionary leadership magnifies latent psychological traits. Ideology supplied justification; crisis provided opportunity; personality determined execution. Their atrocities were not historical aberrations but behavioral culminations of rigid cognition, narcissistic self-identification, emotional detachment, and intolerance of uncertainty.

The broader implication is sobering. Extreme political violence need not arise from overt sadism. It often emerges from moral certainty, intellectual arrogance, and the refusal to acknowledge human complexity. Robespierre and Lenin exemplify how revolutionary ideals, when filtered through psychologically brittle leadership, can transmute aspirations of emancipation into systems of terror. Their legacies endure as warnings of what occurs when conviction eclipses conscience and abstraction supplants humanity. 

Without any mitigating self-irony, Robespierre and Lenin embodied an unlimited commitment to ideology, indifferent to the concerns of ordinary people, their lives and freedoms.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/15/2026 - 05:00

Risk For Thee, Safety For Me: Celebrity Activism

Zero Hedge -

Risk For Thee, Safety For Me: Celebrity Activism

Authored by Christian Vezilj via American Thinker,

Hollywood has mastered the art of moral performance. Award shows have become political stages where actors speak with the confidence of prophets and the certainty of philosophers. But beneath the applause lines and emotional crescendos lies a contradiction that becomes impossible to ignore: the courage they demand from others is courage they themselves will never have to summon.

This contradiction was unmistakable at the recent Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony quickly transformed into a coordinated tribute to Renee Nicole Goode, who was shot and killed by an ICE agent. Mark Ruffalo dedicated his award by saying, “This is for Renee Nicole Goode, who was murdered,” adding, “I don’t know how I can be quiet.” Wanda Sykes echoed the sentiment on the red carpet, declaring, “Of course, this is for the mother who was murdered by an ICE agent, and it’s really sad.” She went further, urging confrontation: “We need to be out there and shut this rogue government down, because it’s just awful what they’re doing to people.”

Celebrities wore coordinated pins reading “BE GOOD” and “ICE OUT,” signaling solidarity and moral urgency. The messaging was unified, emotional, and unmistakably political. The narrative was clear: this was a moment to resist, to rise up, to confront injustice.

But what was equally clear — and far more revealing — was what they chose not to say.

While the Golden Globes stage was filled with speeches about ICE, not a single celebrity mentioned the mass slaughter, imprisonment, and torture taking place in Iran at that very moment - Hundreds of protesters have been killed by the Iranian regime. Thousands have been dragged into prisons. Torture, rape, and forced confessions have been documented by human rights groups. The government has imposed sweeping internet blackouts to hide the brutality from the world. [ZH: regardless of whether this is yet more 'regime change paint by numbers' - it was completely ignored].

And yet, on one of the most visible cultural platforms in America, the silence was absolute.

  • No speeches.
  • No pins.
  • No hashtags.
  • No calls to “shut down” the Iranian government.
  • Nothing.

The contrast is staggering. When the villain is a U.S. agency, outrage is immediate, coordinated, and emotionally charged. When the villain is a foreign authoritarian regime slaughtering its own people, the outrage evaporates. The issue is not the moral weight of the cause. The issue is whether the cause is useful to the narrative they want to tell.

But the hypocrisy runs even deeper. It extends to the way Hollywood reacts to domestic events that do not fit its preferred storyline. When Ashli Babbitt was shot and killed inside the Capitol, there were no celebrity tributes. No emotional speeches. No coordinated pins. No calls for accountability. Instead, the officer who shot her was widely described as a hero. The shooting was framed as necessary, justified, even praiseworthy.

Whether one agrees with either shooting is not the point. The difference in reaction reveals the deeper truth: Hollywood’s activism is not driven by universal moral principles. It is driven by selective outrage, selective empathy, and selective courage.

This brings us to the heart of the matter: the asymmetry of risk. Celebrities routinely encourage ordinary people to “stand up,” “fight back,” or “put your body on the line.” Sykes’s call to “shut this rogue government down” is a perfect example. These are not metaphorical suggestions. They imply confrontation, danger, and the possibility of violence.

Yet the people delivering these messages do so from behind layers of insulation that ordinary Americans do not have. They live in gated communities. They travel with private security. Their homes are protected by surveillance systems, controlled access, and armed guards. They are not wrong for wanting safety — everyone wants safety — but they are wrong for preaching danger for others while choosing safety for themselves.

A working‑class person who confronts ICE or police in the street faces real, immediate, physical danger. A celebrity who posts a hashtag or makes a speech faces none. Their activism is symbolic, not sacrificial. It costs them nothing. And yet they speak as though they are shoulder‑to‑shoulder with the people they are urging into the streets.

This is where the phrase “We’re in it together” collapses. When celebrities use it, they rarely mean shared sacrifice. They mean shared sentiment. They mean shared optics. But they do not mean shared risk. Their version of solidarity is digital, not physical.

The deeper civic insight is this: selective outrage and selective courage are symptoms of a broader cultural problem. We have built a society where moral authority is often claimed by those who bear none of the consequences of their own prescriptions. Hollywood’s activism is not dangerous to Hollywood. It is dangerous to the people they encourage to act on their behalf.

True solidarity requires more than a speech, a pin, or a social media post. It requires standing in the same place, facing the same risks, and sharing the same consequences. Anything less is performance.

And performance, no matter how passionate, is not courage.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 22:30

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