This week, I speak with Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank Securities. They discuss Binky’s time with the IMF and his role at Deutsche Bank as an equity strategist.

We also discussed making asset allocations and market cycles.

A list of his current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Paul Zummo, Chief Investment Officer of J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management (JPMAAM). The Hedge Fund & Alternative Credit Solutions group manages $35B in external hedge fund solutions for institutional and HNW investors. He also heads the Research and Portfolio Management Group for JPMAAM and is Chair of the JPMAAM Investment Committee. Paul co-founded JPMAAM in 1994.

 

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

 

The post MiB: Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank Securities appeared first on The Big Picture.

Germany Marches Toward Reinstating Military Conscription, Starting With Fitness Database

Under US pressure to bolster its armed forces so as to deter supposed Russian aspirations to invade NATO countries, Germany is moving toward reinstating military conscription, with the initial steps centering questionnaires and medical exams that will feed a database detailing each young man's fitness, aptitude and willingness to serve. The plan was agreed upon by Germany's coalition government on Thursday, and now goes to parliament, where the ruling coalition has a slim majority of 12 seats out of a 630 total.   

If Germany reinstates conscription, holding a German passport means possibly fighting in a foreign war, while not holding a German passport means access to the welfare state.

The German government pays foreigners while contemplating sacrificing what is left of its native youth. pic.twitter.com/a1NZ1gfd7y

— Ralph Schoellhammer (@Raphfel) August 19, 2025

Today, the German armed forces -- the Bundeswehr -- has about 180,000 service members. The government said it was laying out a plan to have 260,000 people on active-duty service, with another 200,000 reservists, which is triple the current reserve force. In the first step, to be taken in 2026, the government will send questionnaires to every 18-year-old in the country. Men will be legally obliged to complete it; for women, it will be optional. The questionnaires will gauge respondents' inclination and willingness to serve. Then, starting in July 2027, men will be required to report for a medical examination.

Germany drafted men for military service from 1956 until 2011, when the country adopted the US model of a professional, voluntary force. Rather than abolishing conscription -- which would have required a constitutional amendment -- it was merely suspended that year. Reinstating it would only require a simple majority of the parliament. However, unless the constitution is changed, women will remain exempt. 

Earlier this month, protesters in Munich carried a banner that read "Against Conscription. End War Preparation." (Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto/ Getty via The Times)

For now, conscription will not be put to a vote, as the government hopes to achieve its enormous military expansion -- 44% growth in active-duty ranks -- via recruitment of willing volunteers.  “We will make voluntary service more attractive,” said Jens Spahn, parliamentary leader of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) party. “We want to win over as many young people as possible for the service for the fatherland.” If that fails, however, "we'll need to make it obligatory," he added. Without providing details, the government has said a lottery system would be employed. The Bundeswehr will report on its recruitment efforts every six months, ready to request the reinstatement of conscription to make up any shortfalls.

A recent poll for Stern magazine found that a slim majority of Germans favored reinstating the draft. However, 63% of Germans between 18 and 29 years old opposed it.  

German defense minister Boris Pistorius told Germans there was "no cause for concern...no reason for fear...The more capable of deterrence and defense our armed forces are, through armament through training and through personnel, the less likely it is that we will become a party to a conflict at all." Pistorius and Chancellor Friedrich Merz have set a goal for having Europe's largest military and to be "war-ready" by 2029. Doing its part to promote German militarism, the Wall Street Journal's report on the conscription plan credulously cited unnamed "military analysts [who] think Russia may be able and willing to attack NATO" by that year. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 09:55

New Facial Recognition Vans Rolled Out For Use By 7 More UK Police Forces

PA Media via The Epoch Times,

A new fleet of facial recognition vans are to be rolled out by seven police forces across the UK in an expanded pilot programme.

A police officer views a camera feed from inside a live facial recognition (LFR) van. Andrew Matthews/PA

The Metropolitan Police, South Wales Police and Essex Police have been using the facial recognition vans for some time to mixed receptions.

The software enables officers to use cameras mounted on top of their vans to locate people on their watchlists by filming the surrounding area.

Home Office funding has been provided for new facial recognition vans in Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Bedfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Thames Valley and Hampshire.

The Met released a report last month which said that from September 2024 to September 2025 the software had a false alert rate of 0.0003 percent from more than three million scans.

Civil liberties and anti-racism groups criticised the software for having a “well-documented history of inaccurate outcomes and racial bias” ahead of the Notting Hill Carnival this year.

In response, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley acknowledged that the software was “limited” when it was used at the Carnival in 2016 and 2017 but has made “considerable progress” since then.

Ahead of the new rollout, Chief Inspector Andy Hill, of Surrey Police, was asked if he still harboured concerns about false readings from the technology.

He said: “There’s been a lot of development with the software, a lot of national testing to give us confidence in the software and, at the last Notting Hill Carnival this year, their positive alerts were much higher.”

The police watchlists uploaded to the van are bespoke and will include details and photos of wanted people and people subject to court orders like sex offenders.

If their faces are scanned by the van’s cameras it will alert the officer to the match, and they can verify whether the comparison is correct and take action.

“It’s a positive step in terms of using the latest technology available to us, and it’s about pursuing criminals, it’s about investigating crime thoroughly and also reassuring the public that we are out and about and we are visible and we’re doing our job,” Mr Hill said.

Across the seven new centres, 10 new vans are to be deployed including one in Surrey and another in Sussex which will at times be used in tandem.

The police have said that images of people walking past the van which do not set off an alert will be deleted in less than a second.

Mr Hill said: “We want to be as open and transparent about our deployments, we publish them on our website at least seven days in advance, and we’ll publish the results afterwards as well,

“And during the deployment, we’ve got signage up to inform people that they’re entering a zone of live facial recognition with information on that, and also they can talk to any of our officers at any time about the technology.”

Surrey Police will be deploying a Live Facial Recognition van in Redhill on November 13.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 09:20

US, Switzerland Reach Tariff Deal That Lowers Duties, Stokes Investment

The United States and Switzerland have reached a trade deal under which Swiss imports to America will be subject to a reduced 15 percent duty, officials said.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC on Nov. 14 that the administration had “essentially reached a deal” with the Swiss government after months of negotiations in the context of President Donald Trump’s reset of U.S. trade ties with the rest of the world.

Under the Trump administration’s trade policy, Swiss goods were hit with a 39 percent tariff, one of the highest rates imposed on any country and substantially higher than the 15 percent applied to European Union member states.

The new agreement, which lowers Switzerland’s levy to match that of EU countries, includes measures that support Trump’s goal of reindustrializing the United States quickly, after decades of offshoring.

“They’re going to send a lot of manufacturing here to the United States—pharmaceuticals, gold smelting, railway equipment—so we’re really excited about that deal and what it means for American manufacturing,” Greer said, adding that the White House would release details of the agreement later in the day.

As Tom Ozimek details below for The Epoch Times, the Swiss government confirmed the deal in a social media post, thanking Trump for his “constructive engagement” and acknowledging a “productive” meeting with Greer.

“Switzerland and the U.S. have successfully found a solution: U.S. tariffs will be reduced to 15%,” it said.

In a statement offering further details on the agreement, Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said that the country would reduce its import duties on a range of U.S. products. These include all industrial products, fish and seafood, as well as American agricultural products that are considered “non-sensitive.”

For certain categories of U.S. agricultural products considered sensitive due to their potential impact on the Swiss market, Switzerland will grant duty-free quotas, including 500 tonnes of beef and 1,500 tonnes of poultry from the United States.

Swiss companies have also agreed to invest $200 billion in the United States by the end of 2028, partly in initiatives meant to boost vocational training.

“The announcement of the reduction in additional US tariffs on Swiss imports will serve to stabilise bilateral trade relations,” the Swiss government said.

“Although overall tariffs remain higher than before the additional tariffs were introduced in April, the agreed reduction in additional tariffs is expected to have a positive impact on the Swiss economy.”

The announcement comes a day after Greer met with Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin in Washington for talks on resolving outstanding trade issues and finalizing the deal.

The deal stabilizes the approximately $188 billion in bilateral trade between the United States and Switzerland, whose export-driven economy heavily relies on U.S. demand for its pharmaceuticals, high-precision machinery, and world-famous watches.

The United States absorbs more than one-fifth of all Swiss foreign direct investment, making it Switzerland’s top investment destination.

The tariff accord ends months of tension for Swiss exporters, who had warned that the 39 percent duty was disrupting shipments and forcing companies to rethink production plans.

Additional technical talks are scheduled for the coming weeks as details of the new quotas, tariff schedules, and investment pledges are finalized.

Nearly 1,200 U.S. companies operate in Switzerland, employing about 95,000 people. Swiss firms, meanwhile, rank among the highest-paying foreign employers in America, with average wages above $130,000, according to Switzerland’s foreign affairs department.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 08:45

Tucker Exposes Trump Would-Be Assassin Thomas Crooks' Social Media History, The FBI Coverup, And More Strangeness

Tucker Carlson has just released a deep dive into Donald Trump's attempted assassin, Thomas Crooks - who both the Biden and the Trump FBI have been very quiet about since the July 13, 2024 shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania. 

In late September, Carlson's team received an anonymous tip from someone who said they had gained access to some of Crooks' online accounts, which he found using 'tools commonly used by private investigators' after obtaining Crooks' phone number and gmail address from public documents. He then traced that to two encrypted foreign email accounts (bcook[at]mailfence.com and americangamer[at]gmx.com). He also had a snapchat account, a Venmo, Zelle and PayPal account among several others. 

"It turns out that Crooks was hardly an online ghost," Carlson reports. "And yet, federal investigators lied and told us there was no trace of him online."

The source was able to obtain all materials from Crooks' deactivated YouTube account - which includes his search history, watch history, and 737 public comments. 

When Carlson's team asked the FBI why they hadn't shared this information with the public, the agency replied by asking if they could verify the authenticity of the shooter's account. 

What did Crooks say?

The comments by Crooks were posted between 2019 and 2020, when he was between 15 and 17-years-old. "They show two things," Carlson explains. "First, that Thomas Crooks was not some secretive lone wolf who never warned anyone that he was planning on violence. Just the opposite. Years before he showed up in Butler, Crooks was leaving a detailed digital trail of violent threats - including calls for assassinations and political violence. Second - they show a man who started out as a radical Trump supporter, whose views on the President transformed - changed completely, during Covid. The FBI lied about that fact, and that Crooks was a right-winger."

Pro-Trump: 

On July 19, 2019 Crooks writes: "Ilhan Omar and others are invaders and should honestly be killed and their dead bodies sent back."

On July 20, 2018, Crooks writes: "If youre saying trump is a bad president you arent a patriot as trump is the literal definition of Patriotism"

Seven hours after that comment, Crooks writes: "I hope a quick painful death to all the deplorable immigrants and anti-trump congresswoman who dont deserve anything this countru [sic] has given them"

Later that evening he wrote: "Everyone of the Trump hat-ing democrats deserve to have their heads chopped of and put on steaks for the world to see what happens when you fuck with America"

These types of comments continued for months, "and became increasingly violent." 

"If any of the democratic candidates win. They wont be in there for long. Because unlike the dems we have guns and lots of them"

He also quoted Mao - writing "The only real political power comes from the barrel of a gun." 

The Change:

In early 2020 as the pandemic shifted into the headlines, crooks "radically" changed - writing of "trumps stupidity." 

He then began to mock the idea of the deep state - writing that "The deep state is simply made up of anybody who dis-agrees with the right wing. Conversation over." 

In Feb. 2020, Crooks called out Trump supporters as "brainwashed," and a "cult."

Later that day, Crooks called Trump a racist. 

And in April 2020 when the COVID panic was in full swing, Crooks became pro-lockdown, writing "It seems that you people don't understand that sometimes Public safety comes before your Personnel rights." 

He then wrote: "...going to a chinese new years party in america isn't putting you at risk for corona virus because believe it or not viruses don't spread through race like Tucker Carlson probably told you." 

In May of 2020, Crooks called Republican concerns over voter fraud "ignorant." 

He then wrote a comment that sounded like a "digital manifesto," Carlson reports. 

"they only way to fight the gov is with terror-ism style attacks, sneak a bomb into an essential building a set it off before anyone sees you, track down any important people/politicians/military leaders etc and try to asasinate them. Any sort of head fight is suicide and even ambush/surprise attacks likely aren't going to end well."

The Agitator

Then - a YouTube user @Willy_Tepes began seemingly encouraging Crooks... writing "If a gun and a badge is all that is needed, then authority obviously comes from the barrel of a gun. We have more guns than they do ;)" 

"We have nothing to lose and everything to win,.....and the alternative, a global police state, is unacceptable!" Tepes continues in another comment. 

Carlson asks who Tepas could be - noting that the FBI hasn't made any mention of him, but that someone had screenshotted his YouTube page despite the fact that he had very few followers. 

That said, the usernme was used on a foreign Antifa website linked to the Nordic Resistance Movement, which was designated a terrorist organization by the US State Dept. 

Crooks' online comments mysteriously disappear after his interactions with Tepas, and Carlson notes that Crooks was 'ripe for recruitment' by someone. However his search history was still available:

From early 2019 to mid-2020, "Crooks searched for Trump more than 700 times online," and searched for "Jack Ruby" , "Best places for mass shooting." , and how to make various explosives and devices for mass killings. He also searched for "Sniper in Dallas shooting" , "American Nazi Party" , "German National Anthem 1933-1945," and "Hitler's speeches with subtitles." 

FBI Coverup? 

"Why is the FBI keeping Crooks' views a secret?" asks Carlson, adding "Why are they ignoring Congressional subpoenas to divulge information?"

"So here you have a volatile, troubled, possibly mentally ill young man with a long record of espousing violence in public," Carlson continues. "The FBI clearly knew he existed. And then you have at the very end of his years commenting in public, espousing violence, an exchange with a mysterious figure affiliated with a group that we know is being monitored by the US State Department." 

Turns out that around the same time as Thomas Crooks was making assertions and posting overt threats of violent against public figures on YouTube, the FBI was issuing contracts to private sector tech surveillance firms to harness the power of mass data collection tools to monitor social media for people just like Thomas Crooks," Tucker continues. "It's hard to imagine that Thomas Crooks is making these posts publicly and in his own name, and had not been identified and looked at closely by federal law enforcement. In fact, it's impossible to imagine." 

"We know that the FBI had access to these YouTube comments."

Yet, "they used a selective read of those comments to lie about what Thomas Crooks was saying."

Two and a half weeks after the attack, a 'source familiar with the investigation' told CNN that "Federal investigators are looking into a YouTube account possibly connected to Crooks in which the user espoused political violence as well as antisemitic and anti-immigration themes."

Carlson says that the FBI "knew full well" that it was Crooks' account. "There was never any question." 

Biden's FBI Deputy Director lied the same day as the CNN report in Congressional testimony, while the NY Post reported in Feb. 2025 that the "FBI has obstructed efforts to solve the mystery of why Thomas Matthew Crooks, who left no manifesto, did what he did."

Other notable facts: 

• Crooks' body was cremated on orders from the FBI the same day the House Homeland Security and Oversight Committee began their investigation.

"Can't do a new tox(icology) screen, because the body doesn't exist," Carlson points out. 

• Photos from the day after the shooting "show an FBI agent hosing down the site where Crooks died," which high-level sources told Carlson was 'very strange,' as the FBI 'usually hires out crime scene cleanup to third-party contractors - but in this case they did it themselves." 

• Biden FBI officials accessed Crooks' phone using software from an Israeli firm, Cellebrite, and accessed his phone, computer and his encrypted messaging apps in Belgium, New Zealand and Germany - "yet none of the online activity the FBI discovered was referred to in any way in the final Congressional report." 

Carlson then notes FBI Director Kash Patel and Assistant Director Dan Bongino's awkward and evasive answers when asked whether we'll find out more...

These interviews are from May. Patel and Bongino told us there would be another release from FBI on Butler and that we’re going to know everything they know … here we are in November and crickets.

Where is their release? We don’t know anything close to what they know. https://t.co/xR5rviChxp pic.twitter.com/UzxnuquK54

— JaneDoeUKnow (@MsJaneDoeUKnow) November 14, 2025

More Weirdness

Carlson also points out that Crooks had an unbelievably 'lucky day' the day of the shooting, which the FBI is stonewalling the public over. 

For example: 

• Within days of the shooting, the FBI had 'collected all the relevant surveillance footage,' which includes footage from local businesses, state police,  and "critically, the gun range where Thomas Crooks trained." Did he train alone? We don't know, because to this day the FBI refuses to release the footage.

• Some of Crooks' comments were erased from the internet archive after the shooting. 

• On the day of the attack, Crooks conducted surveillance at Butler - flying a drone over the rally site for 11 minutes - right as the Secret Service's anti-drone system was mysteriously down. 

• Police at Butler saw Crooks with a rangefinder and a backpack, identified him as a suspicious person, but 'quickly lost track' of him. 

• Crooks climbed onto the only building in the area that did not have a video surveillance system, and was 'remarkably' outside the Secret Service's security perimeter. 

• Two local cops saw crooks but did not report it, while a 3rd police officer who was supposed to be covering the building 'left early.'

Watch the entire thing below:

Who is Thomas Crooks? pic.twitter.com/WwjvPGGRwS

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) November 14, 2025

*  *  * Please consider supporting ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge Hat

ZeroHedge Multitool

Weird shirt

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 08:20

Germany's "Council Of Economic Experts" Calls For Higher Inheritance Taxes, And Bows To The State

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In its latest annual report, Germany’s Council of Economic Experts — once regarded as a market-oriented corrective to government excess — has presented what can only be described as a courtesy opinion. Rather than challenging the political status quo, the five “wise men” largely echo Berlin’s own agenda: more state intervention, higher taxes, and tighter regulation.

On Wednesday, the council presented its annual report at the federal press conference. For the first time, Chancellor Friedrich Merz received the economists’ assessment in person. What they handed him, however, reads less like independent advice and more like a compilation of familiar political slogans.

At the top of the list stands — yet again — the call for “cutting bureaucracy,” a mantra repeated endlessly but never realized. Meanwhile, the council ignores the core problem: the German economy is suffocating under its own regulatory machinery. In the past three years alone, businesses have had to hire roughly 325,000 additional staff just to deal with the avalanche of new rules — a massive diversion of resources that adds nothing to productivity.

Bureaucratic Strangulation, Military Keynesianism

Among the council’s key recommendations is “more joint procurement and innovation” in the defense sector — another item perfectly aligned with government priorities. Together with its uncritical support for climate policy, the report reveals how deeply the economists have internalized state narratives.

Instead of questioning the economic burden of the artificial “green industry,” which drags down productivity across all sectors, the council now embraces the logic of a war economy as the next growth engine. The parallels are disturbing. Rather than recalibrating Germany’s economic compass, the report doubles down on the same failed assumptions: more state, more coordination, less individual responsibility.

Phantom Growth, Real Debt

When it comes to growth, the council again mirrors the government’s projections. Both the experts and the Economics Ministry expect a meager 0.2% GDP growth for 2025. That means the massive, debt-financed stimulus packages — which will push public debt up sharply in the coming years — have already fizzled out.

With the state share at roughly 50% of GDP and net new borrowing around 4.2% (including special funds and off-balance items), the implication is devastating: the private economy has contracted by more than 4%.
This is a resounding failure of the government’s Keynesian strategy — yet the economists respond not with structural criticism but with timid nods to bureaucracy reform, while otherwise parroting eco-socialist talking points.

Inheritance Tax: The New Redistribution Tool

The council’s most controversial proposal concerns inheritance taxation. Once a bastion of market-oriented reasoning, the body now advocates raising taxes on inherited business assets, denouncing the current exemptions as “socially unjust.” The language could have been lifted straight from the Green Party’s manifesto.

Specifically, the report suggests limiting the tax exemption for business assets to €26 million, and either abolishing or sharply restricting relief for larger inheritances. Payment deferrals would be introduced to avoid liquidity crises during succession. 

Behind the talk of “asset mobility,” however, lies a distinctly socialist vision — one aimed at broader redistribution and fiscal relief for the state.

Meanwhile, Germany’s real debt (including special funds and hidden borrowing) will rise by over 5% next year. Yet the council sees no problem, as long as Berlin remains in the good company of the EU’s “debt club.”

The State as Sacred Cow

Any notion of shrinking government or ending the interventionist spiral has vanished. The council now fully embraces the political orthodoxy. In doing so, it breaks decisively with the principles of private property and free enterprise, aligning itself intellectually with Marcel Fratzscher’s DIW — a think tank long known for its statist bias.

The report even promotes a state-guided “retirement savings fund” that would channel private investment toward politically defined objectives — above all, climate policy. Once again, the state seeks to steer private capital allocation while dressing it up as “financial inclusion.”

The underlying message is unmistakable: the state is no longer the problem, but the solution.
Even by Berlin standards, this marks a profound paradigm shift.

The Fall of the Economic Council

The council’s ideological transformation — especially in its endorsement of higher inheritance taxes — is a turning point. It confirms what many suspected: Berlin’s bureaucracy has wrapped itself in a belt of compliant advisors, ensuring that no fundamental market-liberal critique can pierce its walls.

Now, even family-owned businesses are to be fed into the meat grinder of redistribution. This represents the low point of a once-proud institution that has steadily drifted away from the foundations of economic freedom.
The principle of private property, generational continuity, and the right to dispose freely of one’s already-taxed assets — all this has been subordinated to the new orthodoxy of “social justice.”

If economists truly value civilizational progress, these principles should be their starting point, not their target.
It is a bitter moment for German academia — assuming one can still call it that.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 08:10