The post Jeffries’ Strong Floor and No Ceiling: We Need to Fix the Roof appeared first on CEPR.

UK Man Arrested For Posing With Gun In Photo Taken While In The US

Last year during sweeping British protests triggered by the stabbing murders of three young girls at a dance recital by the radicalized 17-year-old child of Rwandan migrants, London Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley threatened to have American citizens "arrested and extradited" to the UK for "stoking racial violence" (i.e. pointing out that third world migrants and often the children of third world migrants are a societal net negative and should be deported). 

The event sparked a series of thousands of arrests of UK citizens for crimes as meager as posting memes online and hoisting British flags in the presence of immigrants.  In the past year at least 12,000 such arrests have been made in the name of "quelling hate speech", an ill defined violation based on arbitrary guidelines and left up the whims of leftist bureaucrats. 

No US citizens have been extradited, likely because the action would start 1776 Part II and a handful of armed Americans delivered on a Carnival Cruise Liner would end up conquering the UK in a week or less.

However, it would seem that the British authorities have decided to take out their frustrations on their own citizens who dare to visit the US to enjoy some of the freedoms they don't have at home.  

A British IT consultant was arrested by West Yorkshire Police after posting pictures on LinkedIn of himself holding guns during an American vacation.  Jon Richelieu-Booth, 50, shared the photograph taken at a Florida homestead on August 13.  The post sparked a 13-week ordeal, which began with a police warning at his residence.  Officers cautioned him about online content and its "potential impact on others' feelings".

Despite Mr Richelieu-Booth’s offer to demonstrate the photograph's American origin, authorities chose to arrest him on August 24.  All charges were ultimately thrown out, but police continued to harass Booth until October, when they arrested him yet again for "bail violations".  

Whilst the original firearms and stalking charges were dismissed, prosecutors pursued a public order offense regarding a separate social media post.  Mr Richelieu-Booth was scheduled to face Bradford magistrates on November 25th for allegedly displaying material intended to cause distress, but this charge was also eventually withdrawn.  He originally faced a potential prison sentence of six months if convicted.

Elon Musk, who has been highly critical of the UK's censorship policies, reposted a summary of the story to his 229 million followers on X, writing:

“And this is why we have the first and second amendments in America...The first amendment in the US protects freedom of speech, while the second amendment relates to the right to bear arms..."

Though the incident has ended with Booth avoiding jail time, there is a cottage industry of Europeans traveling to the US to experience life away from progressive authoritarianism.  This includes shooting firearms for recreation.  Often these adventures are documented on YouTube and other platforms, and might be considered an embarrassment for some officials overseas.  

Booth's arrest could be an attempt to chill the waters on British travelers who make life in America look "too good". 

Some firearms are technically "legal" in the UK, but the application process is arduous and subject to arbitrary police examination, which is why only 0.25% of the population has successfully acquired a firearms certificate.  The behavior of UK police is reminiscent of a communist regime; no crime has been committed, but the government wants to dissuade from certain behaviors anyway. 

A conviction isn't necessarily the goal.  Instead, the process is the punishment.  The ongoing struggle session for one man sends a warning to the rest of the populace.  The goal is to frighten the public into walking on eggshells.  It's much easier to control a population that censors itself.  The message is clear:  No matter where you travel in the world, the government at home owns you.  

*  *  * CYBER MONDAY IS HERE - LAST DAY!

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:30

'Inside NYT's Hoax Factory': Trump's AI/Crypto Czar Dismisses Hit-Piece As 'Nothing Burger'

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via CoinTelegraph.com,

White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks has fired back at The New York Times over a report detailing how his government advisory role could benefit his investments and those of his close associates.

Sacks said in a post to X that despite having “debunked in detail” the Times’ reporting over the past five months, the outlet continued to publish the article on Sunday about his supposed conflicts of interest.

“Today they evidently just threw up their hands and published this nothing burger,” Sacks wrote. “Anyone who reads the story carefully can see that they strung together a bunch of anecdotes that don’t support the headline.”

Sacks is a co-founder and partner at the venture firm Craft Ventures, and his special government employee role at the White House has drawn scrutiny in the past, with Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren saying in May that he is “financially invested in the crypto industry, positioning him to potentially profit from the crypto policy changes he makes at the White House.”

Source: David Sacks

Before he became crypto czar, Sacks and Craft divested over $200 million in crypto and crypto-tied stocks, at least $85 million of which Sacks owned, but Sacks retained an interest in several illiquid investments of “private equity of digital asset-related companies.”

Sacks retains 20 crypto investments, The Times reports

The Times reported that its analysis of Sacks’ financial disclosure found he has retained 708 tech investments, 449 of which are AI-related and 20 are tied to crypto, all of which could benefit from the policies Sacks supports.

In one example of a perceived conflict in Sacks’ role, the outlet stated that Craft Ventures is invested in the crypto infrastructure company BitGo, which offers a stablecoin-as-a-service.

BitGo filed to go public in September, with regulatory filings showing Craft owned 7.8% of the company.

The Times noted that Sacks was a major backer of the stablecoin-regulating GENIUS Act, which was signed into law earlier this year. Many crypto commentators predicted that this would boost the use and adoption of the tokens by institutions.

Other examples noted by the Times involved Sacks’ and Craft’s ties to companies involved with AI, which have skyrocketed in value as the White House and Wall Street bet on the technology’s potential.

The Times noted that Sacks’ ethics waivers, shared in March, stated he would sell his interests in AI and crypto; however, they don’t disclose when he sold the assets and do not detail the value of his remaining investments.

NYT created “bogus narrative,” says Sacks

In his X post, Sacks shared a letter to the Times sent by his lawyers at Clare Locke accusing the outlet of setting out “to write a hit piece” and giving their reporters “clear marching orders” to find conflicts of interest.

Sacks added it was “very clear how NYT willfully mischaracterized or ignored the facts to support their bogus narrative.”

Sacks’ spokesperson Jessica Hoffman told the Times that he has complied with rules for special government employees, and the Office of Government Ethics said that Sacks should sell his investments in certain types of companies but not others.

Sacks’ role as a special government employee is limited to 130 days, and in September, Democratic lawmakers questioned whether he had exceeded the number of days allowed with his appointment.

However, Sacks reportedly carefully manages the days he spends as a special government employee to ensure that he stays under the limit.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:15

'Worse Than COVID': Weak US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation In November

This morning's survey data on the US manufacturing economy comes as the post-shutdown slump in 'soft' data has dominated desk conversations amid the vacuum of hard macro data...

But the picture remains mixed:

• S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI BEAT expectations in November but dipped on a MoM basis from 52.5 to 52.2 (still in expansion territory and up from the 51.9 flash print).

• ISM's Manufacturing PMI MISSED expectations, dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 (well below the 49.0 expectation) and in contraction for the ninth month in a row.

Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, "the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth."

Under the hood, ISM shows Price Paid higher, and new orders and employment worsening...

For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.

“Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs.

In short, Williamson notes that manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products. 

"This combination of sustained robust production growth alongside weaker than expected sales led to a worryingly steep rise in unsold inventories."

ISM Respondents were pretty clear with blame for weakness being placed at Trump's feet in Washington:

• “New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.” (Machinery)

• “We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)

• “Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” (Chemical Products)

• “No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

• “Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

• “The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

• “Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

• “The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

• “Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

• “Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.” (Wood Products)

However, there is hope, as manufacturers have grown more optimistic about the year ahead, with the ending of the government shutdown helping lift confidence from the sharp drop suffered in October.

"Optimism is being fueled by hopes of improved policy support, including lower interest rates, as well as greater political stability, though it is clear that uncertainty remains elevated and a drag on business growth in many firms, holding confidence well below levels seen at the start of the year.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:08

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.2% in November, down from 48.7% in October. The employment index was at 44.0%, down from 46.9% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.4%, down from 49.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.2% November 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the ninth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58.5 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the reading of 58 percent reported in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the 47.9 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 44 percent, down 2 percentage points from October’s figure of 46 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was very weak and prices very strong.

Key Events This Busy Week: ISM Mfg and Services, ADP, Core PCE And More

As noted earlier, Asia kickstarted December in a weak mood with Bitcoin down another -6% this morning and Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures both notably lower. 10yr US Treasuries are +3bps and 10yr JGBs are +6.7bps as Ueda said at a speech this morning "At the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), the Bank will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad as well as developments in financial and capital markets, including the point I just mentioned, based on various data and information, and will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate."

DB's Japanese economist believes this strongly suggests an interest rate hike at the December meeting and has pushed forward his view of a hike from January to the meeting later this month, the Friday before Christmas. Market pricing has increased from a probability of just under 60% to 83%. This story brings shades of the 2022 meeting just before Xmas when the BoJ lifted its cap on 10yr JGBs from 0.25% to 0.5%. That saw the market spooked a little. The Yen has risen by +0.39% and the Nikkei is -2.04% lower this morning with 2yr yields +5bps, surpassing the 1% threshold and reaching their highest point since June 2008. 

This coming week will allow forecasters to also fine-tune their Fed views ahead of that. There is plenty of data to get through, both shutdown-delayed and routine. Globally, we have European CPI tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday, following German and French CPI prints today. Various global PMIs are also out today, and we also have Cyber Monday, which follows what seems to have been a decent Black Friday weekend. As an example, Mastercard’s SpendingPulse index was up +4.1% on Friday, up from 3.4% last year. Newsflow continues to bubble up around peace negotiations for the war in Ukraine, so that’s one to watch as well.

Focusing in on the US, the Federal Reserve is firmly in its pre-meeting communications blackout ahead of the 10 December FOMC decision, leaving economic releases to do the talking. Markets have already priced an 80% chance of a 25bp cut next week, and this week’s data will help shape that view as well as expectations for 2026.

The US calendar begins today with the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected to hold near recent averages at 48.5, signalling continued softness in factory activity. Tomorrow brings unit motor vehicle sales, forecast at 15.8 million units, a modest improvement from October. Wednesday is the busiest day, featuring the ADP employment report, expected to show a gain of 50,000 jobs versus 42,000 previously. This report will take on added significance as it will be the most up-to-date labor market data available to Fed officials before they meet. Also due Wednesday are industrial production, likely to rise 0.1% after a slight decline last month, and the ISM Services Index, projected at 51.8, close to its two-year trend. On Thursday, factory orders should show a 0.5% increase, pointing to resilient capital spending. Friday rounds out the week with the delayed September personal income and consumption report, and within it, the more important core PCE. This is expected to hold at 0.23% month-on-month, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%, a tenth above what the Fed was tracking when they only had CPI to use. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also anticipated to edge up to 54.0 from 51.0. While sentiment remains depressed—its 24-month average is comparable to Great Recession levels according to our economists—real GDP growth of 2.6% annualized over the past eight quarters and inflation-adjusted consumer spending growth of 2.8% underscore the economy’s resilience. Note that the combined September and October JOLTS report has been rescheduled for 9 December, while October and November payrolls and unemployment data will not arrive until 16 December, well after the FOMC meeting.

Across Europe, inflation will dominate the agenda. Country-level CPI prints for Germany and France set the tone today, followed by the Eurozone flash CPI for November tomorrow. Switzerland reports inflation figures on Wednesday, and Sweden follows on Thursday. These data points will be closely watched for confirmation that disinflation trends remain intact across the continent.

In Asia, the focus turns to manufacturing and policy signals. Most of China’s PMI data came out yesterday and this morning, but we still have the private-sector services PMI on Wednesday.

Geopolitical developments will also feature prominently. US and Ukrainian delegates met in Florida yesterday without any incremental headlines of note. The US’s main negotiator Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow today and likely meet Putin tomorrow. EU defence ministers meet today on the same topic, followed by NATO foreign affairs ministers on Wednesday for further strategic discussions. French President Macron undertakes a state visit to China from Wednesday to Friday, underscoring diplomatic engagement in Asia.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday December 1

• Data: US November ISM index, China manufacturing PMI, UK October net consumer credit, M4, Japan November monetary base, Italy November manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, Canada November manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: BoJ’s Ueda speaks, ECB’s Nagel speaks, BoE's Dhingra speaks
• Other: EU foreign affairs council (defence)

Tuesday December 2

• Data: US November total vehicle sales, Japan November consumer confidence index, France October budget balance, Italy October unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone November CPI, October unemployment rate
• Central banks: Fed's Powell and Bowman speak, ECB’s Dolenc speaks
• Earnings: Crowdstrike, Marvell
• Other: OECD economic outlook

Wednesday December 3

• Data: US November ISM services, ADP report, September industrial production, import price index, export price index, capacity utilisation, China services PMI, UK November official reserves changes, Italy November services PMI, Eurozone October PPI, Canada Q3 labor productivity, Australia Q3 GDP, Switzerland November CPI
• Central banks: ECB's Lagarde and Lane speak, BoE's Mann speaks
• Earnings: Salesforce, Snowflake, Inditex, Macy’s, Dollar Tree, Royal Bank of Canada
• Other: NATO foreign affairs ministers meeting

Thursday December 4

1. Data: US initial jobless claims, UK November new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan October household spending, Germany November construction PMI, Eurozone October retail sales, Sweden November CPI
2. Central banks: Fed's Bowman speaks, ECB's Kocher, Cipollone and Lane speak, BoE's Mann speaks, BoE’s DMP survey
3. Earnings: Kroger, Dollar General, HPE

Friday December 5

• Data: US September PCE, personal income, personal spending, December University of Michigan survey, October consumer credit, Japan October leading index, coincident index, Germany October factory orders, France October trade balance, current account balance, industrial production, Italy October retail sales, Canada November labour force survey
• Central banks: ECB's Lane speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing and services indexes on Monday and Wednesday and core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period.

Monday, December 1 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, November final (consensus 51.9, last 51.9)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, November (GS 49.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 0.3pt to 49.0 in November, reflecting slight improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+0.1pt to 51.6).

Tuesday, December 2 

• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, November (GS 15.4mn, consensus 15.5mn, last 15.3mn)

Wednesday, December 3 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, November (GS -20k, consensus +10k, last +42k)
• 08:30 AM Import price index, September (consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last -0.1%): Manufacturing production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); Capacity utilization, September (GS 75.8%, consensus 77.3%, last 75.8%): We estimate that industrial production was unchanged in September, as declines in auto manufacturing and natural gas production were offset by increases in non-auto manufacturing and electricity, oil and gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 75.8%, following the recent downward adjustment implied by the annual revision to the industrial production index. 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, November final (consensus 55.0, last 55.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, November (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 52.4): We estimate that the ISM services index increased 0.1pt to 52.5 in November, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.6pt to 53.1).

Thursday, December 4 

08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 29 (GS 215k, consensus 222k, last 216k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 22 (consensus 1,956k, last 1,960k)

Friday, December 5 

• 10:00 AM Personal income, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.85%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.9%); PCE price index, September (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.81%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.7%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in September. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.22% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.85%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.29% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.81%. We estimate that market-based core PCE rose 0.23% in September.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 51.0): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, December preliminary (GS 3.3%, last 3.4%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 09:40

Watch: Unrepentant Trump Unloads On Fake News Reporters

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A gaggle of fake news reporters gathered around President Tump aboard Airforce One Sunday as he traveled back to Washington D.C. after the Thanksgiving weekend, and he let them all know exactly what he thought of them.

Trump dropped several truth bombs as the panicked reporters attempted gotcha questions regarding his third world migration moratorium.

When asked how long he intends to pause migration from countries including Afghanistan and Somalia, Trump shot back, “A long time. We don’t want those people, we have enough problems…You know why we don’t want them? Because many of them are no good and they should NOT be in our country.”

? PRESIDENT TRUMP ON 3RD WORLD MIGRANTS: "We have ENOUGH problems!"

"You know why we don't want them? Because many of them are NO GOOD and they should NOT be in our country."

TRUTH ? pic.twitter.com/iFHb4yUXor

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

Trump highlighted people from “Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. We don’t want them.”

Referring to Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar, Trump blasted “She supposedly came into our country by marrying her brother. Well, if that’s true, she shouldn’t be a congresswoman, and we should throw her the HELL out of the country!”

? BREAKING: President Trump just showed he is DONE with the Somalian BS ??

"Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. WE DON'T WANT… pic.twitter.com/wlEbUp6KMs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

Trump clarified that he will strip naturalisation from those who break the oath to America.

“If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn’t know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I would denaturalise, absolutely!” he stated.

When asked “What do you mean [by] ‘remigration?'” the President responded, “It means – get people OUT that are in our country. Get ’em out of here! I want to get them out! We got a lot of people who shouldn’t be here.”

? MASSIVE: President Trump stuns reporters by confirming REMIGRATION is about to get underway

"If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn't know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I… pic.twitter.com/pEkdPmyv5K

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

When the gaggle attempted to get Trump to turn on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over the narco boat strikes, he was having none of it.

? BREAKING: The Fake News just FAILED to get President Trump to turn on SecWar Pete Hegseth

"I have GREAT confidence [in Pete]."

They want to put Hegseth on trial for "war crimes."

NEVER gonna happen! Hegseth is protecting the homeland ??pic.twitter.com/oo6Pjg4FHx

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

He also stated that he has a replacement in mind for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but was not going to tell the fake news.

? BREAKING: President Trump just decided on JEROME POWELL'S replacement as Federal Reserve Chair

"I know who I'm gonna pick!"

REPORTER: "Kevin Hassett?!"

TRUMP: "?I'm not telling you. We'll be announcing it!"

Too Late is on his way out, FINALLY. We need more interest rate… pic.twitter.com/wmfA1vI7du

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

When asked if he stands by calling Tim Walz “retarded,” in his Thanksgiving message,Trump responded, “Yeah! I think there’s something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?”

“Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay billions out to Somalia…it’s not even a country, it doesn’t function like a country! There’s something wrong with Walz!” Trump added.

? JUST IN – REPORTER: "Do you stand by calling Tim Walz 'retarded?'"

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Yeah! I think there's something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?" ?

"Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay… pic.twitter.com/AbcKPJqOtO

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

Trump ended the exchange by bodying the two lead Karens at the head of the gaggle, who were pestering him for details of an MRI he recently had.

“It wasn’t on the brain, ’cause I took a cognitive test and aced it! Which you would be incapable of doing,” he told one of the women before turning to the other and bellowing “YOU TOO!”

?LMFAO! President Trump concluded his press avail aboard Air Force One by BODYING every reporter in the room!

REPORTERS: *Pressing him on his MRI*

TRUMP: "It wasn't on the brain, 'cause I took a cognitive test and ACED it! Which YOU would be incapable of doing. YOU TOO!" ?? pic.twitter.com/Tk7rur2LRg

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 30, 2025

You can clearly see that Trump absolutely loves intellectually demolishing these fake media wage monkeys.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

*  *  * CYBER MONDAY IS HERE - LAST DAY!

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 09:00

Crypto Crushed By Triple-Whammy Overnight

After an ugly November (the worst since 2018), December is continuing that trend with a big drop overnight that shook what had appeared to be a stabilizing market.

Hawkish BoJ

The overnight plunge appeared to be triggered by Japanese government bond (JGB) futures tumbling on expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise borrowing costs at its December meeting.

Japan’s 2-year government bond yield briefly touched 1.01 percent, the highest since 2008, as traders bet the Bank of Japan’s long era of near-zero rates is ending. 

Some 90 minutes later, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech that his board might increase interest rates soon.

Traders raised the odds of a BOJ rate hike in December to about 80% after Ueda told business leaders that the central bank “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate.”

Any hike would be an adjustment in the degree of easing, with the real interest rate still at a very low level, he said.

As Bloomberg reports, the reaction underscored how crypto investors must now reckon with macro forces far beyond the Fed which is widely expected to ease monetary policy at next week’s meeting.

“In the early days, Bitcoin mostly moved to whatever the Fed was signaling, rate cuts, hikes, or balance sheet shifts,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets.

“These days, Bitcoin reacts to the whole central-bank landscape, not just one player.”

The reaction was swift and violent as the the threat to the 'yen carry trade' tanked risk assets broadly, but most of all bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency plunged from around $92,000 to $84,000 before a small rebound back above $86,000.

“It’s a risk off start to December,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX.

“The biggest concern is the meagre inflows into Bitcoin exchange traded funds and absence of dip buyers. We expect the structural headwinds to continue this month. We are watching $80,000 on Bitcoin as the next key support level.”  

Over 180,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations at $539 million and the majority of that in the past few hours, reported CoinGlass. Almost 90% of those liquidations were long positions, predominantly in BTC and Ether 

Ethereum also tanked, back below $3,000...

Strategy selling?

Things worsened this morning as Bloomberg reports that concerns are rising that Strategy Inc. soon may be forced to sell some of its roughly $56 billion cryptocurrency haul if token prices continue to fall, leading its shares to wobble in pre-market trading.

Strategy’s mNAV — a key valuation metric comparing the firm’s enterprise value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings — sat at about 1.2 on Monday, according to its website, spurring investor fears it may soon turn negative.

“We can sell Bitcoin and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,” Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive officer, said on a podcast on Friday, noting that it would only be carried out as a last resort.

“There’s the mathematical side of me that says that would be absolutely the right thing to do, and there’s the emotional side of me, the market side of me, that says we don’t really want to be the company that’s selling Bitcoin,” Le added.

“Generally speaking, for me, the mathematical side wins.”

MSTR is trading down 5% in the pre-market

However, after a week of not adding to its Bitcoin hoard, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor appeared to hint in a Sunday post on X that it might soon make further purchases.

What if we start adding green dots? pic.twitter.com/a19bD33KzD

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 30, 2025

China notices 'speculation', issues re-ban

Finally, we note that China’s central bank has flagged stablecoins as a risk and has promised to refresh its crackdown on crypto trading, which it has banned since 2021.

The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday, after a meeting with 12 other agencies, that “virtual currency speculation has resurfaced” due to various factors, posing new challenges for risk control.

“Virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not and cannot be used as currency in the market,” the bank said, according to a translation of its statement.

“Virtual currency-related business activities constitute illegal financial activities.”

China’s central bank banned crypto trading and mining in 2021, citing a need to curb crime and claiming that crypto posed a risk to the financial system.

So a triple-whammy for an already sensitive crypto market overnight - is this the weak hand flush needed for the Santa Claus rally to start?

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 08:45

Moscow Paper Claims Ukrainian Drones Hit Russia-Linked Oil Tanker Off West Africa

All eyes are on Russia this week as talks center on a potential Ukraine peace deal that shifts to Moscow. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is en route today and expected to meet with President Vladimir Putin to discuss a Washington-backed, 19-point framework aimed at ending the war. 

As Witkoff and Putin discuss a potential peace deal today, pressure on Russia's shadow tanker fleet appears to be intensifying and broadening. 

Ukrainian drones struck two tankers in the Black Sea last week, and now the Russian business daily Kommersant reports that Ukrainian drones off the West Coast of Africa hit another tanker carrying Russian oil. 

"The M/T MERSIN tanker, carrying Russian oil, was attacked by Ukrainian drones off the coast of Senegal, Deniz Haber reported on November 30," Kommersant wrote in a report. 

Alarming signs that the battlefield is widening far beyond Eastern Europe. 

Ukraine and its Western allies have spent the past several years targeting Russia's oil and gas infrastructure with kamikaze aircraft and naval drones in an effort to pressure Moscow's finances. This campaign, accompanied by sanctions, has yet to collapse Russia financially.

However, the Senegal attack only suggests that Ukraine is stopping at nothing to disrupt Russia's shadow fleet of tankers that fuel profits for Moscow, and in return, fund the war in Ukraine. 

Notice that Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure jumped to a record last month. The timing comes just as Trump is attempting to bring an end to the nearly four-year war.

The expanding battlefield is a major warning sign.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 08:35

Stocks Slides After Bitcoin Tumbles On Hawkish BOJ Fears

After a torrid meltup last week to end the month of November on a euphoria, if extremely illiquid note, futures are once again sinking as we start the final month of the year, in a swoon that was again catalyzed by a plunge in bitcoin which appears to have been spooked by hawkish overnight comments by the BOJ which continues to bluster that it may hike rates one day... soon... for real this time. As of 8:00am S&P futures were 0.7% lower while Nasdaq 100 contracts were -1.0%. Bond yields are 1-4bp higher. Bitcoin slid below $86,000, dragging the entire space and pulling crypto-linked stocks into the red. The Magnificent Seven also declined in premarket trading, with Tesla, Meta and Nvidia each falling more than 1%. Global bond yields are all higher this morning: Japan yields are 3-7bp higher led by the 7yr amid hawkish hint from the BoJ. OPEC+ countries agreed to maintain group-wide oil output quotas (i.e., pausing oil output hike) for 2026 yesterday, given the YTD decline in oil; Oil +1.7% since last Friday’s close. Trump said on Sunday that he has decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair after making clear he expects his nominee to deliver interest-rate cuts. The US economic calendar includes November final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and November ISM manufacturing (10am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Tesla -1.2%, Meta -1.4%, Nvidia -1.9%, Microsoft -0.6%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.9%, Apple -0.6%). 

• Crypto-exposed stocks slip following a drop in Bitcoin prices. Shares of Coinbase (COIN) are down 4%.
• Silver miners including Coeur Mining (CDE) rise as the precious metal extends Friday’s rally on tight supply. Coeur is up 3%.
• Vaccine makers are falling in early trading Monday as William Blair flags reports of a memo from a top FDA official,
• Vinay Prasad, that links Covid-19 vaccines in younger people to deaths associated with myocarditis. Shares of Moderna (MRNA) are down 4%.
• Barrick Mining (B) rises 4% after saying it is exploring an initial public offering of its North American gold assets as the Canadian mining company grapples with operational issues and cost blowouts.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) rallies 13% on news that the solar panel manufacturer is transferring the assets of its Chinese unit to Canadian ownership to safeguard sales into the US as Washington steps up scrutiny of imports from the Asian nation.
• Coupang (CPNG) falls 5% as the e-commerce firm faces an investigation by South Korean authorities over a data breach that affected about 33.7 million customer accounts.
• Leggett & Platt (LEG) shares are up 8% after Somnigroup International proposed an all-stock buyout.

Thanks to a powerful ramp on Friday, November marked the seventh straight month of gains for the S&P 500, the longest streak since 2021 as the monthly closed just barely in the green, rising 0.17%. It wasn't enough for the Nasdaq 100 however, which was hampered by concerns about stretched AI valuations, and fell 1.6% in the month.

But so much for November, and December has seen a stark shift in sentiment with Monday's risk-off mood most evident in crypto, with Bitcoin tumbling below $86,000 before paring the drop.

Sentiment was hammered early after Japan’s two-year bond yield rose to its highest level since 2008 when Governor Kazuo Ueda offered his clearest hint yet that the BOJ may be nearing an interest-rate hike (of course he has been doing this for months and every time the market falls for it). Traders raised the odds of a BOJ rate hike in December to about 80% after Ueda told business leaders that the central bank “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate.” Any hike would be an adjustment in the degree of easing, with the real interest rate still at a very low level, he said. The move weighed on global bonds, lifting the rate on 10-year US Treasuries by three basis points to 4.04%. The yen led gains among major currencies against the dollar.

“The market is still hesitating a bit ahead of the upcoming macro data, and before the Christmas rally people typically expect,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “The drop in Bitcoin is weighing on sentiment and so are the comments from the BOJ.”

Given Japan’s role as a major source of global liquidity, any shift toward policy normalization will have implications for carry trades.

“It’s a structural change in global markets that investors need to adapt to,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris.

The month opened with traders focused on a slate of economic indicators due before the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, following the S&P 500’s seventh consecutive monthly advance in November.  Meanwhile, gold continued its advance, and copper rose to a new record high on fears the global market is heading for a supply crunch. Attention is also turning to the central bank’s leadership, after President Trump said he has decided on a successor to Chair Jerome Powell.

This week’s data include ISM Manufacturing for November, due today, and a much-delayed inflation number for September, set to be released on Friday. A preliminary reading of consumer confidence in December is also due that day. That datapoint will be key given it’s a post-government shutdown reading on the health of the economy.
Markets are now signaling a December rate cut in December is nailed on. And Trump said Sunday he has made his mind up about who will be Fed’s next chairman. Trump’s chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice, people familiar said last week. Hassett signaled markets were ready for the announcement of a new Fed chair. People familiar with the matter last week said that Hassett was seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. Speaking on CBS’ Face the Nation on Sunday, he declined to address whether he considers himself the front-runner.

“December could prove more challenging than many expected, especially for those who thought last month’s 5% dip was the long-awaited correction,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote. “With Fed funds futures pricing nearly a 90% chance of a 25bp cut, there isn’t much room left for additional dovish fuel.”

It's not all gloom: traders are placing bullish bets on small-cap stocks in anticipation of lower rates. The Russell 2000 Index jumped 8.5% in the five trading days through Friday, making up the bulk of its gains this year. 

In strategy, RBC’s Lori Calvasina said the S&P 500 should reach 7,750 over the next 12 months, based on sentiment, valuation, the economic outlook and monetary policy. Calvasina’s forecast, which implies a 14% rally for the benchmark, joins a chorus of strategists with bullish calls for 2026. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.4%, led by industrial, real estate and financial services. A drop for shares of Airbus also drags on the gauge after weekend news of a software glitch for its A320 jets. Industrial goods and services and real estate are the biggest fallers while the mining sector is rising as copper advanced to a record high. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Airbus shares fall as much as 3.1% after the company had to attend to a solftware glitch.
• ASML shares rise as much as 3.1% after the company was added to JPMorgan’s Analyst Focus list and is its top pick in the wider semis sector, in which semiconductor capital equipment is viewed as the most attractive segment.
• European mining shares are among the best-performing sectors in the Stoxx 600 benchmark as copper advanced to a record high on the London Metal Exchange on fears the global market is heading for a supply crunch. Silver traded near a record.
• Reckitt Benckiser shares rise as much as 2.1%, the most in over a month, after Barclays upgraded the consumer goods company to overweight from equal-weight.
• European defense stocks fall after reports of progress in Ukraine-Russia talks over the weekend.
• Melrose Industries shares fall as much as 4.2% after news that CFO Matthew Gregory will retire from his position in 2026.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a narrow range on December’s first trading day as investors braced for a data-heavy week, while gains in China helped offset regional weakness. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.3% as of 4:50 p.m. Hong Kong time, led lower by tech shares, after earlier oscillating between gains and losses. Advances in Hong Kong and mainland China’s markets briefly lifted the region’s benchmark before losses in Japan, Taiwan and Australia pulled it lower. In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that the central bank might lift interest rates at its next meeting this month, sending the Topix 1.2% lower. Meanwhile, market gains in China defied weaker-than-expected factory and manufacturing data, highlighting ongoing strains in the nation’s economic recovery.

In FX, the yen is leading gains against the greenback, rising 1% and taking USD/JPY below the 155-handle. The hint of a December interest-rate hike by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda played a role and also helped push Japanese 2-year yields to the highest since 2008. The yen is also likely benefiting from haven demand as broader risk sentiment struggles to recover after an abrupt turn lower during Asian trading hours.

In rates, treasuries fall, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.04%. European government bonds also decline.

In commodities, WTI crude futures rise 1.8% to near $59.60 a barrel as a key pipeline linking Kazakh fields to Russia’s Black Sea coast halted loading. Spot gold climbs $20 to $4257. Bitcoin also tumbled 6%, back below $86,000 after momentum ignition also sparked a rout and Korean momentum kamikazes joined in during Asian hours.

The US economic calendar includes November final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and November ISM manufacturing (10am). While the Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout period, Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman are scheduled to speak, though they are barred from commenting on the economic outlook or policy. Fed officials will also receive a dated print of their preferred inflation gauge this week ahead of their final policy meeting of the year. Other data due include ADP private employment figures for November.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.7%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.9%
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.04%
• VIX +1.6 points at 17.95
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1216.62
• euro +0.2% at $1.1623
• WTI crude +1.8% at $59.62/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump said Sunday he's decided who he'll nominate to be the next Federal Reserve chair, but he wouldn't be drawn on whether the pick is National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. White House Economic Adviser Hassett said he will be happy to serve if US President Trump picks him as Fed chair.
• Trump said on Friday he is cancelling all executive orders signed by former President Biden using autopen and stated that any document signed by Biden with autopen, which was approximately 92% of them, is hereby terminated and of no further force or effect. Furthermore, Trump stated that Biden was not involved in the autopen process and if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.
• US and Ukrainian negotiators said they held productive talks on a potential peace framework but have yet to reach a breakthrough. Steve Witkoff is due to meet Vladimir Putin in Russia tomorrow. BBG
• Black Friday sales climbed 4.1%, Mastercard said, surpassing last year’s growth, a sign US consumers are continuing to spend despite persistent economic concerns. But Adobe Analytics expects growth in Cyber Monday sales to ease from last year. BBG
• The State Department announced a pause on visa issuances for Afghan passport holders, and the US immigration service said it will halt all asylum decisions, while the US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director said USCIS halted all asylum decisions until they can ensure that every migrant is vetted and screened to the maximum degree.
• For years it has seemed no sticker price was too high for American car buyers. Even as average new car prices approached $50,000 this year, dealers fretted more over depleted inventories than losing customers to sticker shock. Those days may be ending as increasingly stretched consumers are starting to draw the line on what they will pay for a new car, according to dealers, analysts and industry data. WSJ
• Trump downplayed his social media post saying Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed. The president confirmed he recently held a phone call with his counterpart Nicolas Maduro, but declined to say how it went. BBG
• Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposal for a 50% inheritance tax for the super-rich: FT.
• A private gauge of China’s manufacturing sector showed Chinese factories cut back on activity in November, reflecting weaker growth momentum. China RatingDog manufacturing PMI for Nov came in below expectations at 49.9 (vs. the Street 50.5 and down from 50.6 in Oct). WSJ
• Micron will invest $9.6 billion to build a plant in western Japan to make memory chips for AI applications. Nikkei
• The BoJ will thoroughly discuss the possibility of an interest-rate increase at its coming meeting, Gov. Kazuo Ueda said, stoking hopes that it will resume monetary tightening this year. Now that Tokyo’s trade agreement with the Trump administration has reduced external risks, the BOJ governor said the central bank will pay special attention to the outlook for wage increases in Japan next year. WSJ
• Copper rallied to a new record on fears the global market is heading for a supply crunch. Silver extended gains. BBG
• South African President Ramaphosa dismissed US President Trump's threat to exclude the country from next year's G20 summit and reaffirmed South Africa's status as a founding member of the group: Reuters.

Macro

• China’s manufacturing activity contracted in November, according to official and private surveys, as stronger demand overseas after a trade truce with the US failed to reverse a deepening slowdown in the economy.
• Trump said Sunday that people shouldn’t read much into a social media post where he said Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed.
• Russian President Putin signed an order to allow visa-free entry into the country for Chinese citizens as ties between the two nations continue to deepen.

Trade/Tariffs

• China was reported on Friday to have banned imports of pigs, wild boars and related products from Spain's Barcelona province, according to a China Customs document. In relevant news, Mexico’s Agriculture Ministry also suspended pork product imports from Spain due to a swine fever outbreak.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the new month mixed, with participants cautious as they digested the weak Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in healthcare, telecoms, financials and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and weaker-than-expected Australian Gross Company Profits and Business Inventories. Nikkei 225 slipped beneath the 50k level amid a firmer currency and risks of a BoJ rate hike in December, while there were hawkish-leaning comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said that they will consider the pros and cons of raising rates at the December meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat despite the discouraging Chinese PMI data, in which the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).

Top Asian News

• BoJ Governor Ueda is to deliver a speech at the Japan Business Federation on December 25th, according to the central bank.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said if their projection of economic activity and prices materialise, the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economy and prices, while he added that even if the policy interest rate is raised, accommodative financial conditions will be maintained and the likelihood of their baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing. Ueda also commented that at the December meeting, the BoJ will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad, as well as market developments, based on various data, and consider the pros and cons of raising rates. Furthermore, he said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals and that a weak yen works to push up consumer inflation, while they must be mindful that FX moves affect inflation expectations and underlying inflation in guiding policy.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is “clear” that volatile swings in the FX market and the rapid weakening of the yen aren’t based on fundamentals.
• China’s financial regulator guides banks and insurers to fully provide financial support services related to the Hong Kong fire and said insurance institutions should promptly handle claims and other procedures for disaster-affected customers, while it added that banks should strengthen financial credit support and actively assist in disaster reconstruction.
• Indonesia said at least 303 people died in three provinces after severe rains caused floods and landslides.
• Vanke has reportedly requested 12-months to pay its bonds under the extension plan, Bloomberg reports.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) are on the backfoot, following a cautious mood seen in APAC trade. The AEX (U/C) bucks the trend, with ASML (+1%) keeping the index afloat after positive analyst commentary. European sectors are mixed. Basic Resources leads, given the strength in underlying metals prices whilst Industrials sits at the foot of the pile, with Airbus (-3.5%) pressured after rolling out urgent fixes across its A320 fleet over the weekend. US equity futures are softer across the board (ES -0.5% NQ -0.7% RTY -0.8%), following the pressure seen in Europe. Focus later will be on US ISM Manufacturing figures, which will give further insight into the health of the US economy ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. Softbank (9984 JT) CEO said he did not want to sell a single NVIDIA (NVDA) share, but needed funds to invest in OpenAI and other opportunities.

Top European News

• Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposal for a 50% inheritance tax for the super-rich, according to FT.
• UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have been accused of misleading the Cabinet by using claims that there was a black hole in the public finances to justify tax rises during the run-up to the Budget, according to The Times’s Swinford, while it was separately reported by Bloomberg that Reeves denied lying about UK finances pre-Budget.
• UK PM Starmer is to defend the Budget after Reeves was accused of misleading the public, and will outline the growth mission after the Budget tax rises during a speech on Monday.
• S&P affirmed Latvia at A; Outlook Stable and affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable.
• ECB's de Guindos said the current level of interest rates is appropriate and, in terms of future moves, this is data dependent.

FX

• DXY is subdued in the presence of JPY strength and in the absence of any pertinent catalysts and with the Fed in a blackout period, while US President Trump said he knows who he will pick for the Fed chair role, but didn't give any further details. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 99.26-99.51 range (vs Friday's 99.38-99.82 parameter), with the next downside level the 17th November low at 99.25.
• JPY is the marked outperformer this morning, given the risk tone and commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda, who ultimately hinted at a possible December rate rise, although market pricing has been little changed since last week, with a 67% chance of a hold at the 19th December announcement. USD/JPY currently resides towards the bottom of a 155.24-156.15 parameter, the next support level is seen at 155.21 (19th November low).
• EUR and GBP diverge, the former underpinned by the USD, whilst the latter is subdued ahead of UK PM Starmer's speech at 10:30GMT, where he will reportedly outline the growth mission and will defend the Budget after Chancellor Reeves was forced to deny lying to the public about UK finances pre-Budget. No moves were seen in EUR or GBP on the Final Manufacturing PMI data. EUR/GBP reached a 0.8794 peak vs a 0.8754 intraday trough.
• Non-US dollars, CAD, AUD, NZD, are relatively flat with the broader market tone tentative and macro updates light. Upside capped in the antipodeans following overall disappointing Chinese PMIs, where the headline official Manufacturing PMI continued to show a decline in factory activity at 49.2 (exp. 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing disappointed with a surprise contraction at 49.5 (exp. 50.0), while RatingDog Manufacturing PMI missed estimates at 49.9 (Exp. 50.5).

Fixed Income

• USTs Mar'26 down to 113-06, lower by five ticks at worst. Downside echoes peers, but offset by dovish Fed expectations as markets near-enough price a December cut, and we look to updates on the next Fed Chair after President Trump said he knows who he will pick. Polymarket ascribes a 58% chance that Hassett will be appointed. Treasury Secretary Bessent recently said Trump could make an announcement pre-Christmas.
• Bund Dec'25 at a 128.50 low, posting downside of 37 ticks. Support comes into play at 128.37 from the 20th of November. Thereafter, the figure before 127.88 from the last week of September. JGBs and Gilts (see below) driving much of the bearishness, alongside upside in numerous Commodity prices, and particularly crude post-OPEC.
• Gilts Mar'26 opened lower by 12 ticks before falling further to a 91.16 low with downside of 42 ticks at most. Underperformance driven by the Budget and Chancellor Reeves coming under scrutiny over the weekend, with particular reference to the timing of OBR briefings and her pitch-rolling on Income Tax. PM Starmer to speak at 10:30GMT on growth.
• JGBs Dec'25 hit overnight and were lower by c. 50 ticks at worst. Pressure on the back of hawkish BoJ commentary, where Ueda, among other points, said that delaying a rate hike too long could cause sharp inflation and force a rapid policy adjustment. Remarks that lifted BoJ pricing to over a 70% chance of a hike in December vs sub-60% on Friday.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are currently trading higher by c. 2%, as markets digest the OPEC+ and supply-related concerns following Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries. WTI and Brent currently reside at the upper end of a USD 58.83/bbl to USD 59.97/bbl and USD 62.29/bbl to 63.35/bbl range respectively. Price action since the European cash open has been exceptionally lacklustre, and generally sideways around highs; some modest downticks have been seen in recent trade.
• Spot gold is firmer today and trades towards the upper end of a USD 4,205.63/oz to USD 4,262/oz range. XAU now at levels not seen since late October 2025; there is now a bit of clear air to the high of 21st October at USD 4,375.62/oz. Perhaps some focus on continued Ukrainian attacks on Russia, as traders now focus on the coming meeting between US Special Envoy Witkoff and Russian President Putin on Tuesday. Elsewhere, marked pressure in the crypto space perhaps sent flows to the more-traditional haven in APAC trade.
• Base metals held a strong positive bias throughout overnight trade, but then gave up some of the upside as the risk tone dipped a touch, with traders focusing on the disappointing Chinese PMI metrics. Focus has also been on the surge in 3M LME Copper, which saw the red-metal surge above USD 11.2k/t to print a fresh ATH at USD 11,297/t, before scaling back down to a current USD 11,189/t. ING opines that the latest bout of demand for the metal is thanks to “an upbeat CESCO Week event in Shanghai” – suggesting that it echoed the markets’ view of tight supply.
• OPEC+ agreed to keep group-wide oil output unchanged for Q1 2026, while it stated that participating countries approved the mechanism developed by the secretariat to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity. Furthermore, it announced that the 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on 7th June 2026.
• OPEC Secretariat receives update compensation plans from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, according to a statement.
• Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ latest decision is the most important and transparent in deciding production level via State TV.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu submitted a letter to President Herzog, while Netanyahu said in a video statement addressing the pardon request that his personal interest was to complete the legal process until the end, while he added that the military and national reality, and national interest, demand otherwise, and that ending the trial immediately would advance much-needed national reconciliation.
• Israeli helicopters fired in the eastern areas of Khan Yunis inside the Yellow Line, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli security estimates that Iran may take the initiative and carry out retaliatory operations instead of Hezbollah and estimates preparations for a Houthi response in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah Top Commander Al-Tabatabai, according to Al Arabiya.
• Hezbollah’s leader said on Friday in response to Israel's killing of its military chief that the group has a right to respond and will set a time for it, while he added that Lebanon's government should prepare a plan to confront Israel.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks with Turkey regarding the nuclear issue and Israel, while he also held a meeting with the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs in Tehran.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
• US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
• Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
• Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
• Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
• Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
• NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
• NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.

OTHER

• US President Trump declared on Truth Social that the airspace above Venezuela is closed. It was separately reported that President Trump held a call with Venezuelan President Maduro, while Trump also commented that Defence Secretary Hegseth told him that he did not order a second boat strike.
• US bipartisan lawmakers raised alarms on Sunday that Defence Secretary Hegseth may have committed a war crime following a report that he ordered a follow-on attack to kill survivors of a boat strike in September, according to POLITICO.
• Venezuela said it rejects US President Trump’s “hostile, unilateral and arbitrary” post about Venezuela’s airspace and noted that the statement shows “colonial pretentions” towards Latin America, while it added that Venezuela demands respect for airspace and will not accept foreign orders or threats.
• China’s Coast Guard carried out law enforcement inspections around the Scarborough Shoal, while the report noted that the Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command organised combat readiness patrols in the ‘territorial’ waters and airspace of the Scarborough Shoal and surrounding areas on November 29th, according to Xinhua.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: Nov F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 51.9, prior 51.9
• 10:00 am: Nov ISM Manufacturing, est. 49, prior 48.7
• 10:00 am: Nov ISM Prices Paid, est. 57.5, prior 58

Central Bank Speakers 

• 8:00 pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks at Memorial Event
• Fed’s External Communications Blackout (November 29 - December 11)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Good news from home as we start the month: over the weekend we found out that my daughter Maisie has made the South East England Artistic Swimming Squad. Considering I’m one of the worst swimmers imaginable—and would make an awful gymnast—I’m pretty impressed that she’s managed to stay on the right side of the gene pool lottery. To be fair, when she had Perthes Disease for three years and spent over a year in a wheelchair, swimming was the one thing that kept her going, so this is a fantastic achievement. I won’t book tickets for the 2036 or 2040 Olympics just yet, but you never know!

As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly release our usual performance review. November was very much a month of two halves: risk assets initially sold off, before a sharp recovery meant the S&P 500 just about posted a seventh consecutive monthly gain. The main driver was the Fed, as investors first priced out and then back in a December rate cut. Elsewhere, fears of an AI bubble remained prominent, with the Magnificent 7 losing ground for the first time since March. European assets also performed well as expectations rose about a potential peace deal in Ukraine. However, not every asset managed to recover—Bitcoin saw its worst month since February. 

ChatGPT was three years old yesterday and that date could be a landmark moment in history in years to come. As we said in the World Outlook, the ultimate destination for AI will be hotly debated in 2026 and will unlikely reach a conclusion. As such there is plenty of opportunity for both sides of the boom-and-bust narrative to win for periods of time. So expect a volatile ride.

Asia has actually kick started December in a weak mood with Bitcoin down another -6% this morning and Nasdaq (-1.05%) and S&P 500 (-0.80%) futures both notably lower. 10yr US Treasuries are +3bps and 10yr JGBs are +6.7bps as Ueda has said at a speech this morning "At the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), the Bank will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad as well as developments in financial and capital markets, including the point I just mentioned, based on various data and information, and will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate."

Our Japanese economist believes this strongly suggests an interest rate hike at the December meeting and has pushed forward his view of a hike from January to the meeting later this month, the Friday before Christmas (see here for more of his views on this). Market pricing has increased from a probability of just under 60% to 83% as I type. This story brings shades of the 2022 meeting just before Xmas when the BoJ lifted its cap on 10yr JGBs from 0.25% to 0.5%. That saw the market spooked a little. The Yen has risen by +0.39% and the Nikkei is -2.04% lower this morning with 2yr yields +5bps, surpassing the 1% threshold and reaching their highest point since June 2008. More on Asia later.

This coming week will allow forecasters to fine-tune their Fed views ahead of that. There is plenty of data to get through, both shutdown-delayed and routine. Globally, we have European CPI tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday, following German and French CPI prints today. Various global PMIs are also out today, and we also have Cyber Monday, which follows what seems to have been a decent Black Friday weekend. As an example, Mastercard’s SpendingPulse index was up +4.1% on Friday, up from 3.4% last year. Newsflow continues to bubble up around peace negotiations for the war in Ukraine, so that’s one to watch as well.

Focusing in on the US, the Federal Reserve is firmly in its pre-meeting communications blackout ahead of the 10 December FOMC decision, leaving economic releases to do the talking. Markets have already priced an 80% chance of a 25bp cut next week, and this week’s data will help shape that view as well as expectations for 2026.

The US calendar begins today with the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected to hold near recent averages at 48.5, signalling continued softness in factory activity. Tomorrow brings unit motor vehicle sales, forecast at 15.8 million units, a modest improvement from October. Wednesday is the busiest day, featuring the ADP employment report, expected to show a gain of 50,000 jobs versus 42,000 previously. This report will take on added significance as it will be the most up-to-date labour market data available to Fed officials before they meet. Also due Wednesday are industrial production, likely to rise 0.1% after a slight decline last month, and the ISM Services Index, projected at 51.8, close to its two-year trend. On Thursday, factory orders should show a 0.5% increase, pointing to resilient capital spending.

Friday rounds out the week with the delayed September personal income and consumption report, and within it, the more important core PCE. This is expected to hold at 0.23% month-on-month, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%, a tenth above what the Fed was tracking when they only had CPI to use. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also anticipated to edge up to 54.0 from 51.0. While sentiment remains depressed—its 24-month average is comparable to Great Recession levels according to our economists—real GDP growth of 2.6% annualised over the past eight quarters and inflation-adjusted consumer spending growth of 2.8% underscore the economy’s resilience. Note that the combined September and October JOLTS report has been rescheduled for 9 December, while October and November payrolls and unemployment data will not arrive until 16 December, well after the FOMC meeting.

Across Europe, inflation will dominate the agenda. Country-level CPI prints for Germany and France set the tone today, followed by the Eurozone flash CPI for November tomorrow. Switzerland reports inflation figures on Wednesday, and Sweden follows on Thursday. These data points will be closely watched for confirmation that disinflation trends remain intact across the continent.

In Asia, the focus turns to manufacturing and policy signals. Most of China’s PMI data came out yesterday and this morning, but we still have the private-sector services PMI on Wednesday.

Geopolitical developments will also feature prominently. US and Ukrainian delegates met in Florida yesterday without any incremental headlines of note. The US’s main negotiator Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow today and likely meet Putin tomorrow. EU defence ministers meet today on the same topic, followed by NATO foreign affairs ministers on Wednesday for further strategic discussions. French President Macron undertakes a state visit to China from Wednesday to Friday, underscoring diplomatic engagement in Asia.

Yesterday, China’s official manufacturing PMI came in a couple of tenths below expectations at 49.2, marking the eighth successive month below 50. The non-manufacturing equivalent surprisingly fell from 50.1 to 49.5, the first reading below 50 for nearly three years. Consensus was at 50.0. This morning, the RatingDog general manufacturing PMI, conducted by S&P Global, fell to 49.9 in November (compared to the expected 50.5).

Chinese equities are bucking the risk off elsewhere this morning, possibly on stimulus hopes given the data. The Hang Seng (+0.27%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.33%) are higher.  

Recapping last week now and markets rebounded from their recent pullback, buoyed by new hopes of Fed rate cuts, as well as improved tech optimism and accelerating talks on a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. This saw the S&P 500 advance by +3.73% (+0.54% Friday), its biggest weekly gain since mid-May, when US and China reversed their post-Liberation Day tariff escalation. The NASDAQ rose by +4.91% (+0.65% Friday) and the Magnificent 7 by +5.40% (+0.62% Friday). The Mag-7 rally came despite Nvidia falling -1.05% (-1.81% Friday) following reports that Meta (+9.04%, +2.26% Friday) was in talks with Alphabet (+6.85%, +0.07% Friday) to purchase Google’s AI TPU chips. The VIX volatility index declined by -7.08pts to a four-week low of 16.35. And credit spreads tightened amid the risk-on mood, with US IG (-5bps) and HY (-32bps) spreads seeing the biggest weekly tightening since August and May respectively.

Over in Europe, the peace narrative helped the STOXX 600 gain +2.55% (+0.25% Friday), with similar advances for the DAX (+3.23%) and the CAC 40 (+1.75%). By contrast, the STOXX Aerospace & Defence index (+0.27% on the week) and Rheinmetall (-2.57%) underperformed.

US Treasuries rallied following more dovish commentary from Fed officials as well as reports that Kevin Hassett is viewed as the frontrunner for the Fed Chair post. The pricing of a December rate cut rose from 63% to 83%. It was as low as 24.5% 10 days ago. Those moves came amid mixed US data, most notably with November consumer confidence (88.7 vs 93.3 expected) slumping to a 7-month low but the latest jobless claims suggesting a still resilient labour market as initial jobless claims fell back to 216k in the week ending November 22 (vs. 225k expected). The 2yr Treasury yield was -1.9bps lower at 3.49% (+1.4bps Friday), with 10yr yields down -5.0bps to 4.01%. In continental Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-1.4bps), OATs (-6.3bps), and BTPs (-5.9bps) saw similar declines as Treasuries.

In the UK, markets welcomed the increase in fiscal headroom to £22bn as the budget revealed mostly back-loaded tightening. The main measures include £26bn of tax rises by 2029-2030 via frozen income tax thresholds, new National Insurance on salary-sacrifice pensions, and higher taxes on dividends, property, and savings. Coupled with lower-than-expected gilt issuance, this left 10yr gilt yields -10.6bps lower on the week, and the FTSE 100 advancing +1.90% (+0.27% Friday). The UK deficit is forecast to fall from 4.5% of GDP to 3.5% next year, and under 2% by the decade's end, but markets still question long-term fiscal sustainability. 

In commodities, Brent crude was +1.02% higher to $63.20/bbl (-0.22% Friday), with oil traders remaining cautious on the prospects of possible peace deal in Ukraine. Meanwhile, gold (+4.29% on the week) and Bitcoin (+6.80%) joined the broader rally after their earlier declines.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 08:32

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.6% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 15.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.5%), and down 4.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.7%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 28th, inventory was at 817 thousand (7-day average), compared to 830 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

The Impossible Two Percent: Why Central Banks Cannot Afford Price Stability

Authored by Hamoon Soleimani via The Mises Institute,

The Two percent inflation target—monetary policy’s sacred commandment for three decades—has become structurally impossible to achieve. Not because central bankers lack skill, but because every attempt to hit the target destroys the financial architecture that previous monetary expansion built. This is the endgame of central planning: a system that cannot tolerate its own success criteria without collapsing.

The Arbitrary Anchor

New Zealand invented the two percent target in 1989 by looking backward at what inflation had been when things felt stable—hardly rigorous science. Other central banks copied this guess, transforming it into dogma. But the economy of 2025 bears no resemblance to 1989. We’ve financialized every asset class, built supply chains optimized for fragility, and erected a debt tower requiring perpetual refinancing at suppressed rates just to avoid collapse. The two percent target was designed for a world we’ve already destroyed.

The Cantillon Trap: Winners and Losers by Design

Monetary expansion doesn’t spread evenly. New money concentrates where it enters—in financial assets, real estate, and the balance sheets of those with credit access. This creates two economies: one for asset-holders, enriched by expansion; another for wage-earners, crushed by the cost increases that follow.

To hit 2 percent consumer inflation, central banks must restrict money supply enough to destroy demand among ordinary households—the people furthest from the monetary spigot. But they’ve already inflated assets to the point where millions of families, pension funds, and governments depend on continued expansion to stay solvent. Tightening enough to hit 2 percent CPI means liquidating the phantom wealth propping up the entire system. We glimpsed this in 2022-2023: modest rate increases triggered bank failures and sovereign debt crises.

The trap is complete: monetary expansion enriches the few while punishing the many, but contraction would bankrupt both.

The Measurement Mirage

The CPI doesn’t measure what people experience. Housing costs appear through “owner’s equivalent rent”—a fiction understating reality by a significant amount. Healthcare, education, childcare—costs that have doubled or tripled—receive minimal weight. Meanwhile, falling electronics and import prices pull the average down.

A family whose rent has doubled, childcare tripled, and healthcare quadrupled is told inflation is “only” three percent. Central banks fight to hit a target disconnected from lived reality, using tools that damage those already most hurt by mismeasured inflation.

The Sovereign Debt Vise

The United States now carries $38.12 trillion in debt, with deficits locked in structural overdrive. For fiscal year 2025 (ending September 30, 2025), the federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.8 trillion—marking one of the largest annual deficits in US history in nominal terms. In calendar year 2025 alone (through November), the debt has already climbed by over $1 trillion, representing one of the fastest accumulations outside of pandemic-era spikes.

The Fed cannot pursue “price stability” without triggering sovereign default. It cannot monetize the debt without abandoning its inflation target. Monetary and fiscal policy have fused into a single system where every path leads to ruin.

The Trump Tariff Dividend: Fiscal Lunacy as Stimulus

Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” crystallizes the absurdity. Tariffs might generate $300-400 billion annually. Distributing $2,000 to 150 million Americans costs $300 billion, consuming all revenue and leaving nothing for Trump’s simultaneous promise to “substantially pay down national debt.”

But fiscal arithmetic is merely the surface problem. This is stimulus injected into an economy already overheating from tariff-induced price increases. Tariffs function as a regressive consumption tax, raising prices across the board. What is the proposed solution? Send everyone cash, which immediately bids prices higher in a textbook demand-pull spiral. We learned this during the pandemic: stimulus checks fueled the inflation that hit 9 percent.

The circularity is perfect: American consumers pay the tariffs, raising prices. The government sends that revenue back, and consumers use it to pay higher tariff prices. It’s a perpetual motion machine of economic waste. Tariffs misallocate capital by making inefficient domestic production appear profitable, while dividends provide purchasing power divorced from productive activity. We’re restricting supply through tariffs while boosting demand through dividends—engineering an inflationary explosion while calling it economic nationalism.

The QT Surrender: Why the Fed Can’t Stop Printing

The Federal Reserve announced in October 2025 that quantitative tightening will end in December after reducing its balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion. This isn’t a policy choice—it’s mathematical surrender.

The Fed’s balance sheet remains bloated with low-yielding assets from QE rounds dating to 2008, earning two-three percent while the Fed pays 4.5 percent on reserves it created to buy them. The Fed operated at a loss for three consecutive years.

But the Fed cannot shrink its balance sheet to pre-crisis levels without triggering a liquidity crisis. The modern financial system operates under an “ample reserves framework”—a euphemism for permanent monetary expansion. Banks, pension funds, and Treasury markets have become structurally dependent on massive reserve creation. When the Fed attempted modest QT reductions, repo markets showed stress. They’re stopping, not because inflation is conquered, but because the financial system cannot handle genuine monetary normalization.

The QT cessation sets the stage for QE’s inevitable return. The Fed is now in what Austrian economists call the “crack-up boom” phase—the point where monetary authorities choose between deflation (and cascading debt defaults) or continued inflation (and currency destruction). The QT cessation signals their choice.

The Perfect Storm

The Fed needs tight policy to combat inflation—inflation partly driven by tariffs Trump defends as revenue generators. But tightening is impossible because government debt service already consumes $1 trillion annually and the financial system requires ongoing liquidity support. So the Fed will maintain its swollen balance sheet, ready to expand again at the first crisis signal, while Trump pumps fiscal stimulus through tariff dividends into the economy.

The 2 percent inflation target becomes farcical. How can the Fed hit an inflation target when fiscal policy is overtly inflationary, when monetary policy cannot genuinely tighten without breaking the system, and when political pressure tilts entirely toward more spending? The Fed’s QT announcement is an admission they’ve lost control, even if they won’t admit it.

Policy Checkmate—The Impossible Choice

High inflation destroys savings, distorts price signals, and creates social instability. But we must be honest: the 2 percent target cannot be achieved without either.

The options seem to be: 1) a deflationary depression that liquidates the debt overhang—and likely the social order with it; 2) a financial repression that slowly confiscates wealth through negative real rates; or, 3) a restructuring of how we conceptualize monetary stability in a hyper-financialized economy.

The first option is politically impossible and humanly catastrophic. The second is what we’re already doing, just with more dishonesty. The third requires admitting central banking as currently practiced has failed.

The Austrian Vindication

Precision inflation targeting was always hubris—imposing mechanical control over an organic, complex system. The error wasn’t choosing two percent specifically; it was believing any centrally-planned monetary system could generate sustainable prosperity while coupled with fiscal incontinence.

We’ve created a monetary system that cannot tolerate the price discovery necessary for genuine economic coordination. Every attempt to hit an arbitrary inflation target generates distortions making the next cycle more severe. The Fed’s balance sheet cannot shrink because the economy was restructured around permanent monetary expansion. Interest rates cannot normalize because the debt burden makes higher rates catastrophic.

The 2 percent target isn’t failing because central bankers lack competence—it’s failing because it represents an impossible constraint on a system that has already inflated beyond the point of return.

The Endgame

The question isn’t whether we’ll abandon the two percent target. The Fed’s QT cessation and Trump’s tariff dividend have already abandoned it in practice, whatever they claim in theory. The real question is whether we’ll do so explicitly, through honest debate about what comes after central banking’s failure, or implicitly, through the slow-motion credibility crisis we’re witnessing—where inflation stays persistently above target, the Fed’s balance sheet can never shrink, and fiscal policy becomes increasingly untethered from reality.

This is the endgame of monetary central planning: not with hyperinflationary bang or deflationary whimper, but with the confused stumbling of policymakers who cannot admit their tools have welded them into a cage. The two percent target, tariff dividends, ample reserves frameworks, and technocratic jargon cannot obscure the simple truth: we have built an economic system requiring perpetual monetary expansion to avoid collapse, and we’ve run out of ways to pretend this is sustainable policy rather than slow-motion currency debasement with extra steps.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 08:05

The post Trumpian Nonsense on Employing Native-Born Workers appeared first on CEPR.

Black Friday Turnout Solid: Goldman, UBS Highlight Decent Start To Holiday Spending Season

Heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday, there were mounting concerns about consumers, especially lower-tier ones - a cohort we've repeatedly warned as facing tough times. But early shopping data from this past weekend from Goldman and UBS suggest that, in aggregate, consumers held up better than feared. 

Goldman's top sector specialist, Scott Feiler, penned a note to clients earlier that "U.S. consumer does continue to show up for events, this Black Friday included. After all, Adobe did say Friday and Saturday both came in above their forecasts."

A long line of cars formed near a freeway exit in Dublin, California on Friday as shoppers flocked to score Black Friday deals at the San Francisco Premium Outlets. pic.twitter.com/1Bqy64MTKT

— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 28, 2025

Feiler cited high-frequency data from Mastercard SpendingPulse, Adobe Analytics, Salesforce, and internal sources, all of which indicated a strong weekend. These are numbers that President Trump's economic team will likely highlight this week as economic proof that consumers are holding up late in the year.

Here's a snapshot of those data points:

Mastercard SpendingPulse

• Retail sales (ex. auto) increased +4.1% y/y on Black Friday. 

• Last year, Mastercard said Black Friday sales were +3.4% Y/Y.

• The breakdown of this year's +4.1%v was in-store sales +1.7%, while online sales were +10.4%

• It's 1 day only, but that +4.1% was compares to Mastercard's holiday prediction of +3.6%. They noted strength in apparel (+5.7%) and jewelry (2.3%).

Adobe Analytics

• Online sales grew +9.1% YoY, slightly below last year's +10.2%, but both Thanksgiving and Black Friday exceeded initial forecasts.

Salesforce

• Global online spend hit $79B (+6%), with U.S. online at $18B (+3%). Gains were price-driven, with unit volumes down YoY.

Goldman Sachs Store Checks:

• The GS Research team published takes this morning from their weekend store visits . They noted overall traffic at "traditional" Black Friday weekend destinations were in line to slightly better than last year. There were certain retailers where traffic was a little stronger than average like TGT, ULTA, ASO and at the mall at BBWI, Garage (GRGD) and Victoria's Secret (VSCO). They think toys, kids apparel, beauty and footwear were the areas within stores with the most traffic, while home goods traffic was lighter.

• Store traffic remains muted vs online.

Sensormatic

• Said physical retailer traffic dropped 2.1% y/y on Black Friday, compares to the 2025 average of -2.2%.

RetailNext

• Said Friday/Saturday traffic was -5.3% Y/Y. Friday was much stronger than Saturday. Would note most regions were consistent, but the negative Saturday data looks wonky, skewed by an outlier read in the Midwest. The total conclusion though is in store traffic remains soft, compares to online.

In a separate note, Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense said that Black Friday data came in slightly better than expected. 

De La Grense noted, "Black Friday, Aspirational Luxury and the return of "boom boom." 

Here are her top observations from the weekend:

• Reassuring start to Holiday trading in the U.S., with Black Friday data coming in slightly better than feared, following last week's disappointing confidence print. In summary, retail sales growth was in line with NRF's forecast for the season as a whole, with discount levels that were very similar to last year.

• Lots of focus recently on the "K-shape" economy, with commentators observing that the top income earners are increasingly holding up discretionary spending in the U.S. While we do think this cohort is outperforming (driven by equity market wealth creation which accrues more to higher-income households), the very top of the income pyramid participates less in discount shopping events. Therefore, Black Friday is a good first check on gifting trends and mass-market spending ahead of holiday. By many accounts, retailers were pleased with their level of business – WWD cites a broad number of players confirming this.

• By category, it sounds like apparel did well (benefiting from cold weather), while jewellery remains strong and we are continuing to see signs of life in the handbag category. I still think that aspirational spending is recovering in the U.S. – that was a theme emerging from Q3 earnings season and seems to have continued into Q4 based on 1) November guidance raises at Ralph Lauren, Tapestry and The RealReal; 2) qualitative commentary over Black Friday weekend. Note that a number of retailers have called out younger cohorts showing up to spend on Black Friday – consistent with Deloitte's survey heading into the event.

• Our preferred sub-sector within Consumer Discretionary right now remains Luxury Goods. While Black Friday isn't a perfect read for this sector (given the cohort behaviour mentioned above), there's enough data suggesting that high end spending is improving QTD in the U.S. Outside of the U.S., China luxury is also recovering (off a low base) - the high frequency data here is a bit mixed as handbag imports through October were not as good as Q3 (although with the caveat that the 2-year comp is very tough). However, jewellery/cosmetics sales in China have been strong, Macau GGR just beat expectations meaningfully (+14% YoY this morning and reaching the highest recovery level vs pre-pandemic since reopening) and micro feedback/channel checks are good.

UBS analyst Michael Lasser struck a similar tone to Goldman, pointing to the same data and noting that "spending has been decent, but the shape of the season has yet to be determined."

Here's from Lasser:

Overall, the data points to steady demand during the key holiday weekend for retailers. Though, it is still quite early. Plus, we suspect that there will be steep drop off following Cyber Monday as consumers have tended to concentrate their spending around key events. This has been the pattern for some time. Importantly, there's still a good amount of time remaining. For many retailers, we think December can account for 40% to 45% of the fourth quarter. Thus, we think it's best to reserve judgement on the overall result of the holiday season for the next few weeks.

However, the analyst said it's still too early to draw conclusions about the overall shopping season. He noted several important considerations to keep in mind as the Christmas shopping period quickly approaches:

• Consumers are likely prioritizing essentials and seeking discounts this year as inflation continues to weigh on budgets. This favors retailers like Walmart and Costco who are perceived to be pricing aggressively.

• We believe retailers have been more aggressive with promotions to drive sales. Best Buy and Dick's Sporting Goods suggested last week that promotions were higher this year than in the past. Yet, we think that many retailers are finding ways to mitigate the impact to their profits. This is from areas like improving shrink, generating growth in retail media, and driving increases in third party marketplaces.

• The adoption and influence of Artificial Intelligence is in its early stages, but is having a growing impact. Data from Adobe shows that the use of this technology is up significantly YoY. This follows recent announcements from retailers like Walmart and Target, which are partnering with OpenAI in various ways. We suspect that with each passing day, the effect that this technology is going to have on the retail sector is going to significantly grow. This will favor the larger, well-positioned retailers, in our view.

While the consumer in aggregate is still holding up, the split (read report) between lower-income shoppers and higher-income households has increasingly widened. Trump's "Operation Affordability" initiative is framed as an effort to reverse the Biden-era inflation that has squeezed the working poor and younger Americans.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 07:45

As Money Gets Tighter, More People Are Selling Gold and Silver

Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times,

For years, Jakob stacked silver coins and bullion, building his treasure and waiting for the perfect moment to let it go, if that moment ever came.

With prices in late 2025 rapidly rising, money running low, and the holidays approaching, he decided to sell them on Nov. 18 at the spot market price of $50.13 per ounce.

He received more than $1,400 from a coin dealer in Phoenix. Enough to cover this year’s gifts.

“I wasn’t really wanting to sell, but everything is expensive,” Jakob, who didn’t want his last name used, told The Epoch Times.

“Christmas kind of made the decision for me,” he said. “I’ve got little kids. They’ve been wanting to go to Disneyland.”

As economic conditions worsen for many Americans, more precious metals investors are selling assets to take advantage of higher prices and bolster their finances, according to several coin and bullion dealers and customers who spoke with The Epoch Times.

For many, the need for cash is immediate, with essentials like groceries and electricity bills taking priority over holding onto their investments.

A coin and bullion dealer in Navajo County, Arizona, said that three out of every four transactions were people selling their silver and gold.

Many of these sellers were having a hard time making ends meet, he said, and asked not to use his company’s name.

The dealer said one woman, who looked in pain, needed money for dental care. Another woman, a single mother, needed cash to buy food.

At least two married couples sold their gold wedding rings for quick money to buy basic items.

Southwest Coin & Bullion, a gold and silver buyer in Phoenix, on Nov. 18, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

“It’s a hard time,” the dealer told The Epoch Times.

“One customer flat out said, ‘I don’t want to sell right now, but I have to.’ He had a car repair, and [needed] Christmas money.”

The man received $2,200 for his collection of 1-ounce silver rounds.

“They aren’t all desperate,” the dealer noted. “The thing is, for the last two years, I’ve had more sellers than buyers, significantly more sellers than buyers, especially the last year,” due to rising prices.

“October was my best month. A lot of that was larger purchases, people who were on the fence or were thinking about it. It’s the price. People buy on the fear of missing out.”

The dealer explained that selling gold and silver when prices are rising quickly seems “counterintuitive” because it often makes more sense to buy and hold as prices climb.

He added that, as the saying goes, the goal in precious metals trading is to buy low and sell high.

A worker polishes gold bullion bars at the ABC Refinery in Sydney, Australia, on Aug. 5, 2020. David Gray/AFP via Getty Images

But that stable high is nowhere in sight, he said.

“Seriously, maybe one in 10 are taking a profit; the vast majority are selling out of need,” he said. “Most people who buy gold and silver buy it to sit on it as savings or insurance.”

“And with that being said, the majority of people are selling out of need, not out of  wanting to take a profit.”

Gold and Silver

On Nov. 28, gold’s per-ounce value closed at $4,220.40 in U.S. dollars, and by 1 p.m. Eastern Time, silver hit a record high of $56.38 per troy ounce, precious metals analyst kitco.com reported.

Patrick McKeever, a precious metals dealer at Southwest Coin & Bullion in Phoenix, said the gold and silver markets remain highly volatile and unpredictable, as prices continue to rise with no clear end in sight.

He said that as the dollar drops in value and inflation goes up, more people are choosing to buy for the long term or sell to take advantage of higher prices in the short term.

“I think it’s just high demand,” McKeever told The Epoch Times.

“There’s several different entities buying up precious metals. You have the world governments, China, Russia, and the big banks aren’t hiding the fact that they’re buying as much as they can get,” he said.

McKeever pointed out that although precious metals are sometimes dismissed as outdated or poor investments, history shows their remarkable ability to retain value amid the rise and fall of currencies.

“Finding that top right now, I don’t think anybody knows,“ he said. ”All we see is the price continuing to go up, demand continuing to stay solid.”

At current prices, McKeever said he’s more “bullish” on gold than silver, the latter being an industrial metal. 

Regardless, he sees both as valuable hedges against inflation and financial hardship, and uncertainty.

The United States Gold Bullion Depository, also known as Fort Knox in Kentucky in 2009. Michael Vadon/CC BY-SA 2.0

“They’re just a good safety net, so if you have the ability to hold them—yep,” McKeever said. 

According to a 2023 Gallup study, the proportion of people who viewed gold as one of the best long-term investments rose from 15 percent in 2022 to 26 percent a year later.

Cash Shortfall

In the meantime, a 2025 survey by the online gold buyer Cash for Gold USA found that seven out of 10 Americans are selling jewelry to pay for basic needs.

“Despite gold prices increasing by nearly 45 percent over the past year, significantly more Americans have been selling gold to serve as a household lifeline rather than the precious metal’s record high prices,” the company revealed.

More than half of the people surveyed in June said that they sold gold for quick cash to cover money problems.

The survey included 1,002 people who had sold items such as gold, diamonds, jewelry, coins, and watches to Cash for Gold USA.

Although 50.5 percent sold items to get money, 68.4 percent said the cash was used for household essentials. Most of it went toward paying bills (52.6 percent) and buying groceries (15.9 percent).

The survey found that besides helping with money problems, people sold their metals because they had items they did not use, or had forgotten about (45.4 percent), or because they got them from someone else (13.8 percent).

Nearly 70 percent of people in the survey used the money to make their finances better now or in the future, including paying off debts (13.4 percent) or purchasing a home (3.2 percent).

‍“We were shocked by the responses,” said Barry Schneider, co-founder of Cash for Gold USA, in a statement.

Mikah Snowden, a sales representative at Galina Fine Jewelers in Cottonwood, Ariz., works behind the showcase on March 20, 2023. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

“We expected more people to tell us it was the record-high prices of gold driving their decision to sell, which have increased by around $1,000 per ounce over the past year. Gold has been selling for more than $3,300 an ounce.”

The study reported other reasons for selling. About 10.8 percent sold because of divorce or separation, 5.4 percent due to job loss or reduced hours, and 3.6 percent because of medical bills.

Most sellers spent their money on basic needs. Only 9 percent used the money for a vacation, 4 percent for new jewelry, and just 2 percent for electronics. Fewer than one in six used their money on luxury items.

“This is not the gold rush of 1849, but this survey suggests to us that those employed in America face financial hardships, despite holding down jobs,” Schneider said.

Gabe Wright, co-owner of Coin Heaven in Cottonwood, Ariz., holds gold and silver coins, two of the hottest-selling items on March 20, 2023. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

The Epoch Times contacted major bullion dealers, such as SD Bullion and Battalion Metals, but did not get a response to its request for comment.

On Nov. 18, Levi from Phoenix visited a busy downtown bullion shop with 124 quarters from around 1964, the last year American coins were made with 90 percent silver.

Levi told The Epoch Times he spent years collecting coins, saving them as an investment since he was young.

He decided to sell because he needed the money and ended up making more than $1,000.

“I’ve just been collecting them over time. I’ve been finding them at gas stations, things like that. I still have more,” Levi said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 07:20

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• The $260 Billion Mom-and-Pop Funds Distorting the Credit Market: Popular with individual investors, fixed-maturity funds are hoovering up the debt of big companies, reducing borrowing costs but obscuring repayment risk. (Bloomberg)

• Goodbye, Price Tags. Hello, Dynamic Pricing. Businesses increasingly are using algorithms to determine prices, and to rapidly adjust those prices throughout the day. This new technology is called dynamic pricing, and it’s poised to change the way businesses set and advertise their prices. Think of the ever-changing electronic signs at gas stations, but for everything. (New York Times) see also Gen X-ers Have Money to Spend. Why Are Retailers Ignoring Them? Three in four Americans ages 45 to 60 say they expect to overspend for the holidays. They’re “sort of like the glue within the consumer spectrum.” (New York Times)

• Unpacking the Mechanics of Conduit Debt Financing: Understanding the pass-through financing model behind the AI infrastructure boom. (This Is Not Investment Advice)

• Private Equity Firms Could Face More Litigation as They Push into Retail: TAMU’s William Magnuson and Oxford’s Ludovic Phalippou argue that misleading metrics and opaque fees pose “significant litigation risks when ordinary investors enter the picture.” (Institutional Investor)

• Are the rich fleeing Mamdani’s Manhattan? Not according to the data. The reasons for the increase in sales can be attributed in large part to overall gains in the stock market, the expectations of big Wall Street bonuses and declining mortgage rates. (USA Today)

• What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy. What are the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates? A careful review of the major changes in US tariff policy since 1870 shows no systematic relation between the state of the cycle and the direction of the tariff changes, as partisan differences on the effects and desirability of tariffs led to opposite policy responses to similar economic conditions. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

• Mapping the Sense of What’s Going On Inside: Scientists are learning how the brain knows what’s happening throughout the body, and how that process might go awry in some psychiatric disorders. (New York Times)

• The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy: In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life. (Wall Street Journal)

• YouTube’s Right-Wing Stars Fuel Boom in Politically Charged Ads. The popularity of YouTube podcasts among conservatives is driving a boom in small businesses tailoring ads to their millions of listeners, paying hosts like Joe Rogan and Candace Owens to read out promotions in the hope that fans will place orders. The phenomenon has enriched both the hosts and YouTube, supporting further growth of the businesses using ideology to sell. (Bloomberg free) see also How Right-Wing Superstar Riley Gaines Built an Anti-Trans Empire: The swimmer tied a trans woman for fifth. The MAGA industrial complex took care of the rest. (Mother Jones)

• Life in the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry borderlands, from beatosu to goblu: The legend of beatosu originated with a prank carried out by Peter Fletcher, a Michigan alumnus who served as chairman of the Michigan State Highway Commission in the 1970s. Fletcher was in charge of the state highway maps, which include a tiny strip of northern Ohio. At Fletcher’s direction, the highway commission’s 1978 maps included a fictional town called “goblu” near Toledo and another called “beatosu” in a rural part of Fulton County, Ohio. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

Bitcoin Disconnecting From Nasdaq

Source: Apollo

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Visualizing The $19 Trillion Global Cost Of Conflict

Last year, the economic impact of violence reached $19.1 trillion, or $717 billion higher than the previous year.

This came as conflict deaths hit 25-year highs, and wars continued in the Ukraine and Gaza. In response to heightened geopolitical tensions, European nations have injected billions into defense spending. Even Japan plans to double its defense spending to 2% of GDP.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the global cost of conflict in 2024, based on analysis from the Institute for Economic and Peace.

Breaking Down the Cost of Conflict

Below, we show the economic impact of violence worldwide, with figures including direct and indirect costs:

In 2024, military spending grew by $540 billion to reach $9 trillion.

Overall, 84 countries increased spending on military as a share of GDP, with Norway, Denmark, and Bangladesh seeing the greatest jumps. U.S. military spending totaled $949 billion, while China followed at $450 billion, in international dollars.

As the second-highest cost, internal security expenditure hit $5.7 trillion. This includes costs associated with policing and the judicial system.

Meanwhile, GDP losses causes by conflict surged 44% in 2024 to reach $462 billion. Compared to 2008, GDP losses have more than quadrupled, while the cost of conflict deaths has followed a similar trend.

Adding to this, the cost of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) had an economic toll of $343 billion. Today, 122 million people globally are forcibly displaced, more than doubling from 2008.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on Europe’s biggest armies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 05:45

'Surgical Removal Of An Organ': Ukrainian Recruiter Arrested For Allegedly Beating Conscript's Genitals In Heinous Attack

Via Remix News,

After a forced conscript was beaten in his groin area to the point that he lost an “organ” following emergency surgery, Ukrainian authorities have moved to arrest the recruitment center head.

The staff of the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) arrested the head of one of the district recruitment and military service preparation centers (TCK) in the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

The recruiter is accused of brutally beating a conscripted man for refusing to perform a fluorographic examination during the medical aptitude test (VLK), reported by the General Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine and the DBR, based on the announcements of Ukrainian news outlet Pravda.ua.

The DBR investigated complaints from citizens and parliamentarians that beatings, torture, and demands for money had taken place in a TCK operation in Transcarpathia. Notably, neighboring Hungary has alleged that recruits from the Transcarpathia region are targeted for recruitment at an especially high rate due to them being ethnic Hungarians.

“Investigators uncovered numerous abuses of power committed by a senior officer at the center,” the DBR communication was quoted by the source.

Based on the investigation, it was revealed that the man was sent to the hospital for a VLK examination together with other citizens.

When he refused the examination, the lieutenant colonel deliberately inflicted at least five blows against the victim, targeting the groin area.

As a result, the victim suffered serious physical injuries that required the “surgical removal of an organ.”

The officer was charged with abuse of power during martial law, with serious consequences. On the motion of the prosecutors, the court ordered an arrest without the possibility of bail. Based on the source, it was also revealed that the possible involvement of other persons, including police officers, in the case is currently being investigated.

This beating is likely just the tip of the iceberg, though. As already reported by Remix News, a Hungarian citizen and entrepreneur, József Sebestyén, died in July in the Beregsász hospital after Ukrainian recruiters severely beat him with iron bars in a forest, with the incident also caught on film.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has forcefully condemned forced conscription in Ukraine after the beating death. Speaking on Kossuth Radio, Orbán linked the tragic incident directly to the ongoing war, asserting that a country where such events occur due to forced conscription is unfit for European Union membership.

“A country where this could happen cannot be a member of the EU,” said Orbán.

“We are talking about a Hungarian-Ukrainian dual citizen. This entitles us to avoid using cautious language. They beat a Hungarian citizen to death, that’s the situation. And this is a case that we need to investigate, as this cannot happen,” Orbán stated, emphasizing the gravity of the situation. 

He highlighted that while the front lines might seem distant to many Hungarians, “the war is taking place in our neighboring country. The threat is directly here.”

A video post on this topic from Remix News was immediately flagged by X and censored, meaning that EU censors may be jumping on this report due to its sensitive nature.

For years, videos of Ukrainian recruits being dragged off the streets and beaten have been circulating, making the arrest of one of these recruiters quite out of the ordinary.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 05:00

Future Of Fertility Chronically Overestimated

The newly released OECD Pensions at a Glance report shows how fertility projections have been wrong again and again over the years, grossly underestimating how much fertility would decline each time.

As fertility rates and pension funds are intrinsically tied, this can cause problems down the line, when incoming payments from workers to pension funds are smaller than expected and payouts to current pensioners exceed them.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the following data, the lifetime births per woman in OECD countries sank from 2.2 in 1980 to 1.9 in 1994.

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the time, demographers estimated that the rate would recover up to around 2.1 by the middle of the upcoming century.

By 2002, births rates had declined to 1.66, yet a recovery to 1.85 by 2047 was once again expected.

By 2012, there was actually a slight recovery back up to 1.75 births per women, prompting demographers to expect the number of births to rise to an average of 1.8 per woman by 2050.

Yet, birth rates started to fall again to below 1.5 by 2024, the latest year on record.

Still, the tale of recovering fertility has not been eliminated, as birth numbers are currently projected to rise again, albeit only slightly, to 1.52 by 2050 and 1.54 by 2070.

Many scientists now see the official UN demographic forecasts as conservative estimates and believe that the world population will actually shrink significantly faster than they project.

 A 2020 study published in The Lancet actually calculates that contrary to what UN figures say the world population will have shrunk by 2100 and could potentially already be significantly lower than it is today.

While population growth has been studied at length and models in this field tend to be more reliable, less work has been done on the newer topic of population decline, making calculations more unreliable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 04:15

"Made For Germany" Is History: Covestro Caught In The Waves Of The Sell-Off

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

Abu Dhabi’s state-owned energy giant ADNOC has acquired nearly all shares of German chemical powerhouse Covestro. Germany is gradually losing its strategic position in critical industrial sectors. The sell-off is accelerating.

Remember the big media spectacle “MADE FOR GERMANY” this past July? Chancellor Friedrich Merz staged a meeting with 61 corporate CEOs, proudly announcing supposed future investments of €631 billion.

Even then, given the ongoing capital flight from Germany, it was clear that the event was mainly a media stunt – a sad attempt to distract the public from the real state of the German industrial base.

Sell-Off Accelerates 

Since that day, Germany’s industrial sell-off has not slowed – it has accelerated. Companies have already made their judgment: suffocating regulations, exploding compliance costs in the name of climate policy, and an administratively hostile environment have turned investments into a risk.

In short: industrial production is being systematically and willfully strangled by lawmakers.

Last week, German chemical giant Covestro grabbed the headlines. This time, it was Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC on a bargain hunt – Black Friday has become a daily routine.

At around €62 per share, for a total transaction value of €15 billion, ADNOC increased its stake to over 95% – effectively taking control of company policy.

Loss of Capital and Know-How 

Capital gains will no longer flow to Germany but to Abu Dhabi. Strategic decisions about investment and location policy are now made by owners abroad.

This is especially critical for a company of clear strategic importance: Covestro’s high-performance plastics and polyurethanes are essential for Germany’s key industries – from automotive and machinery to construction and electrical engineering. Covestro is a central element of the industrial value chain, whose stability largely determines the future of the entire German industrial base.

About 40% of the 15,000 employees still work in Germany, many at the Leverkusen headquarters. But even Covestro has not escaped the general decline. Germany’s chemical industry now operates at just 71% capacity – a drop of more than 20% from the record year of 2018 – a sector now navigating increasingly rough waters.

Covestro has reported negative net earnings in recent years, while operating profit (EBIT) fell by more than 50% from 2023 to 2024, down to €87 million. Pressure from international competitors, high energy costs, and increasingly complex Brussels regulations have pushed the company to the limits of its competitiveness.

A Broader Trend 

The trend of selling off Germany’s industrial crown jewels began with the sale of Augsburg-based robotics and automation specialist KUKA in 2016. At the time, China’s Midea Group acquired a majority stake for €4.6 billion.

Even then, the same spectacle played out: the new investor publicly promised jobs and location guarantees, but quickly shifted to a mode where strategic decisions were tied exclusively to return expectations and location quality.

There is simply no place for sentimental traditionalism or patriotic rhetoric in this world. Global industry moves forward – and no one outside Europe shares the passion for risky green policy experiments.

Dramatic Consequences 

Covestro and KUKA are just two prominent examples of a secular trend. Year after year, Germany loses net direct investment. Last year alone, €64.5 billion flowed out – capital that is being invested elsewhere in new production capacity. Note: this is a net figure, which is expected to be even higher this year.

Germany’s economy is bleeding, while political leaders respond with half-hearted industrial subsidies – like the so-called “industrial electricity price” – and ever-new regulations. Many companies are likely to exit in anticipation of the cost tsunami from the CO₂ certificate market starting in 2027.

The U.S. Factor 

Above all, the United States beckons as an alternative production base. The Trump administration has made it clear that it will use every lever – including tariff pressure – to advance reindustrialization. This includes deregulation of the energy sector, an end to costly renewable experiments, and an industrial policy that welcomes investors rather than driving them away.

Add to that promises from Arab states like Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia to invest trillions in U.S. production – concrete proof of Washington’s seriousness. “Made for USA” will become a major political and economic mantra in the years to come. The U.S. economy is currently growing at over 4%, accelerating global capital shifts.

The list of German companies moving to the U.S. is growing. Hamburg-based metal producer Aurubis, automotive groups Stellantis, and supplier Bosch are among firms planning to strengthen the North American economy with billions in investments.

No One Sacrifices the Green God 

It would be too simplistic to blame this trend solely on U.S. trade policy. Long before Trump returned to the White House, it was clear that industrial production in Germany – and across the EU – had become unprofitable. As long as national policy enforces the Green Deal and its “green transformation,” nothing will change.

No one dares to sacrifice the Green God – the destructive CO₂ narrative driving economic collapse.

Half-hearted protests by Mittelstand associations, such as the Family Entrepreneurs, calling for broader political discourse including the Alternative for Germany – and their sharp political and media pushback – show that Germany still does not recognize the seriousness of the situation.

With each major corporation relocating abroad, the backbone of the German economy – the deeply integrated Mittelstand – is weakened. Even the public sector hiring half a million people cannot mask the fact that industry has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs and will continue to lose value in the coming years.

Celebrating the reintroduction of an EV subsidy as a major industrial policy step is, at its core, nothing more than a declaration of bankruptcy of eco-socialist policies that have propelled the country into a spiral of poverty.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/01/2025 - 03:30