Individual Economists

China Sanctions 20 US Defense Firms, Issues 'Red Line' Warning Over Record Taiwan Arms Deal

Zero Hedge -

China Sanctions 20 US Defense Firms, Issues 'Red Line' Warning Over Record Taiwan Arms Deal

After sounding the constant warning that Washington is "playing with fire" in continually arming and supporting self-ruled Taiwan, China's foreign ministry announced Friday new sanctions on ten individuals and 20 American defense companies, mostly notably among them Boeing, specifically in response to American arms sales to Taiwan.

The ministry described that the sanctions freeze any assets that the listed people and firms hold in China and prohibit Chinese organizations and citizens from conducting business with them, and singled out Boeing's St. Louis-based defense branch, Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation and L3Harris Maritime Services - among others.

Also on the list is Palmer Luckey, the founder of defense firm Anduril Industries. The sanctioned executives are barred from traveling to mainland China, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.

Anduril Industries

"In response to the latest US announcement of large-scale arms sales to China’s Taiwan region, China has decided to take countermeasures in accordance with the anti-foreign sanctions law against 20 US defense-related companies and 10 senior executives who have engaged in arming Taiwan in recent years," stated the Chinese foreign ministry.

"Anyone who attempts to cross the line and make provocations on the Taiwan question will be met with China’s firm response… No country or force shall ever underestimate the resolve, will, and ability of the Chinese government and people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity," it added.

The ministry described that "movable and immovable properties, and other kinds of assets" of these American firms and individuals within China "shall be frozen."

The punitive measure follows the Trump administration's provocative announcement last week of an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, which is record-setting, confirmed as the largest such US sale to the island to date.

Beijing has said "The Taiwan issue lies at the heart of China’s core interests and represents the first red line in China-U.S. relations that must not be crossed," according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.

The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the major arms sales are intended to support Taipei's efforts to "modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability."

The biggest chunks of the package include some $4 billion of Himars truck-based missile launchers, enough for 82 of the advanced systems.

The Himars have enough range to be able to reach targets on China's east coast, which introduces a new level of 'deterrence' from Taipei's and Washington's perspectives.

Last week, soon on the heels of this, Beijing issued a blistering statement saying, "The 'Taiwan independence' forces on the island seek independence through force and resist reunification through force, squandering the hard-earned money of the people to purchase weapons at the cost of turning Taiwan into a powder keg."

That prior statement had added, "This cannot save the doomed fate of 'Taiwan independence' but will only accelerate the push of the Taiwan Strait toward a dangerous situation of military confrontation and war. The U.S. support for 'Taiwan Independence' through arms will only end up backfiring. Using Taiwan to contain China will not succeed."

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 08:25

Gold Surges As Central Banks Brace For Global Debt Storm

Zero Hedge -

Gold Surges As Central Banks Brace For Global Debt Storm

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

The gold price is racing from one all-time high to the next. That’s good news for friends of the precious metal and bad news for anyone still hoping for a stabilization of global debt dynamics. 

Assuming the markets close out the year without major volatility, gold holders can look forward to an approximate 70 percent increase in value within a single year. This is remarkable—not least because 2024 already ended with a 26 percent gain for the otherwise conservative asset class of precious metals. That amounts to a doubling of value in just two years—a surge usually seen in the tech sector rather than gold.

A Store of Value in Turbulent Times 

For the most stable money humanity has ever known, which has served as a store of value in crises for millennia, this is no ordinary development. Quite the opposite. Among those who follow geopolitical developments and financial markets closely, such a compressed upward movement is an unmistakable signal: Danger is imminent. 

Whether it’s military conflicts—like the Ukraine crisis, which still carries dangerous escalation potential—or the global debt dynamics now affecting nearly every region, capital is visibly fleeing to the safe haven of gold. Gold has a key advantage over other assets: there is no counterparty risk. Physical ownership—not as an ETF held at a bank—represents a tangible value that, aside from the annual 1.6 percent mining increase, neither inflates nor can be arbitrarily frozen.

By comparison, the M2 money supply—which includes cash, deposits, short-term term deposits such as money market funds, and savings accounts—is expected to grow by seven to nine percent globally this year. Gold is becoming scarcer relative to circulating fiat money—a compelling argument, particularly in central bank circles. Banks are well aware that their interest rate policies, coupled with ongoing debt monetization, lead to planned currency devaluation. Hence, the precise move into gold—central bankers are essentially trying to secure themselves.

The size of the global gold stock is limited and fairly precisely measurable. Worldwide, there are 216,000 tons of gold, equating to a volume of 11,200 m³—forming a cube with a side length of 22.3 meters. 

Central Banks Scent Their Own Crisis 

Globally, it was again the central banks pushing gold prices higher this year. The Polish, Chinese, and Turkish central banks stand out. Combined, central banks are expected to add roughly 1,000 tons of gold to their vaults this year—a figure well above the long-term average of 400–500 tons. As mentioned: danger is imminent.

This massive buying suggests that central bankers know full well we are facing a global debt problem—or may already be in the eye of the storm. Interest rates are rising in almost every economy, prompting investors to demand higher risk premiums on sovereign bonds from highly indebted states. The U.S., with over 120 percent debt, joins France (~117 percent) and Italy (~136 percent). Even Germany, currently an exception at 65 percent debt, plans a significant buildup in the coming years. Overstretched welfare states and additional burdens from migration-related crises push public budgets further into deficit, only offset by continuously growing bond volumes.

When central banks step in and take on large parts of this new debt, the credit money supply grows alongside the actual credit process, driving inflation in both goods and asset prices. 

Subordinating monetary policy to fiscal mandates has created a powerful political unit. Debt policy becomes the norm, and the natural causality between deficit, higher taxes, and inflation is systematically stretched out over time. Who today links rising food prices or the precious metal boom to the Federal Reserve or the ECB?

Private investors feel the pressure, too: German households, for instance, bought about 9,000 tons of gold this year in the form of jewelry, goods, and coins.

Trust Crisis in the Global Financial System 

Growing private and institutional demand for safe assets, which shows no sign of abating and is expected to continue into 2026, points to a severe trust crisis. Rising sovereign bond yields—especially in Japan, with debt around 230 percent—have reached alarming levels, scaring investors and exposing the depth of the trust crisis. A storm is brewing—and Japan may well be where it begins. 

For years, Japan served as a carry trade hub: borrowing cheaply in yen and investing elsewhere for higher returns with limited currency risk. Rising rates there could abruptly make these long-standing financing models unprofitable.

The foundation of the international financial market, largely built on U.S. Treasuries, risks destabilization. Options to hedge against the monetary excess—central banks taking on massive state debts—are limited. 

Gold remains one of the safest havens. For those preferring more volatility, Bitcoin is digital gold: serving the same purpose, independent of state creditworthiness, and operating as a self-contained economic ecosystem. 

Italy and the Final Alarm Signal 

As if one more proof were needed that a storm might hit capital markets, Italy—one of the Eurozone’s three pillars—has gone on the offensive. The country is working to legally transfer gold stored at the Italian central bank to state ownership. 

Does Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni foresee that in a Euro crisis, the ECB might tap national gold reserves to stabilize the common currency?

How far has the trust crisis in capital markets already advanced? The new year may soon give us a clearer answer to this pressing question. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 08:00

Escobar: Europe's Elites Pay For The Privilege Of Losing Conflict

Zero Hedge -

Escobar: Europe's Elites Pay For The Privilege Of Losing Conflict

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

When in doubt, Europeans should always re-read Tacitus. As a true Roman, he considered that sacrifice was only worthy if conducted at the service of the motherland. In his time, the Roman Empire. In our time, that would be civilization-state Italy.

Tacitus was a keen student of Resistance – reflecting on the worthiness of the heroic deaths of those condemned to suicide by Nero and Domitian. He followed all the legal battles, the condemnation of lay martyrs such as Seneca. He talks about them with veneration; but branded their sacrifice as sterile.

Tacitus refused the temptation of heroism – and asked himself if between the ardor of disdain and vile obsequiousness a path could be found exempt from vaingloriousness.

He certainly didn’t see this path in the future of Rome. He experienced life under absolute power – today that would be under the yoke of the European Union (EU) and European Commission (EC) – and noted that to exercise it or be submitted by it was equally degrading.

The questions he could not answer are eternal. Whether a people protagonist of History and enjoying domination is able to be worthy of it; whether it’s possible for those who govern to remain wise; and for those who are subjects, what to do to not humiliate themselves.

To History and politics, Tacitus posed only moral questions. For him, the only possible salvation will come via moral healing.

He quoted some verses of brilliant poet Lucan, who was also a victim of Nero – who wrote that considering “the most serious calamities” one “had proof that not towards our security are the gods solicitous, but of our punishment”.

All these questions apply now to Europeans being subjugated by appallingly mediocre warmongering elites – who are only speeding up a negative vortex way more serious than the decadence of Rome. While “the Gods” are Olympically oblivious of the punishment inflicted on mere – taxpaying – mortals.

Throwing Money Into a Black Void

Enter the latest European elite scam: the decision to hand over to the “criminal organization” in Kiev – President Putin’s terminology – a cool 90 billion euros joint loan for 2026-2027, at 0% interest rate. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic officially refused to be part of the scam.

This joint EU borrowing – funds that they don’t have in the first place – automatically turns into EU debt. The onus will be on EU-wide taxpayers. Not only they will be stripped of 90 billion euros of their hard earned income coupled with high taxes; they will pay European banks for the “privilege”. Everyone in the corridors of the EC in Brussels knows that only in interest, EU member-states will have to pay over 3 billion euros a year.

The imperative corollary: funds for health services, education and social rights will go even more down the drain than at present.

It’s key to be reminded that this sweet loan will only cover two years to keep the Kiev gang on life support. Afterwards, it will be yet another scam. And even the sweet loan won’t be enough for 2026-2027 – covering only two-thirds of the black hole in Kiev.

The conditions for the loan are mind-boggling. Kiev will repay it if – and the operative word is an impossible “if” – receives “full reparations” from Russia. The EC in Brussels has stipulated the total amount at over half a trillion euros.

It gets even juicier. Before the loan, the EC had previously declared Ukraine insolvent; and announced that it could not provide loans to Kiev. Still, they forced themselves to come up with this latest sweet loan: direct financing, a de facto grant.

According to Ukraine’s lead negotiator Rustem Umerov:

there are two scenarios: 1 – if the conflict ends, the funds will go toward rebuilding the country; 2 – if aggression continues, Ukraine expects €40–45 billion annually for defense and security.”

Both scenarios are absurd. First: Moscow – as the victor in the conflict – will never agree to finance the rebuilding of Ukraine via its own sovereing wealth fund stolen by Europeans. Second: the Kiev gang is already positioning itself to be showered with more free money, as in “if aggression continues…”

This whole circus is in progress because the EU failed to steal the Russian sovereign wealth funds for good – no matter the tsunami of spin speculating on who finally “betrayed” who (arguably France’s Le Petit Roi dumped the German BlackRock chancellor at the final stage of the negotiations).

What matters in the end is that a few economists with an IQ above a Brussels room temperature warned their “leaders” that if the “robbery” (Putin’s terminology) of Russia would go on, nations holding sovereign wealth funds – from Asia to the Persian Gulf – would always regard them not as savings but as high risk investments, with catastrophic consequences.

There are no illusions in Moscow. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitri Medvedev noted that “Brussels thieves” have not ditched their plans. Additionally, the toxic Medusa in charge of the EC had already stated that Russian assets can be unblocked only by a qualified majority vote – as in, for instance, two-thirds or three-quarters of the total number of member-state voters.

Tacitus would have approved Putin’s lapidary evaluation of the EU: “They [the previous US administration] believed Russia could be easily broken up and dismantled. European ‘swine underlings’ immediately joined the efforts of that previous American administration, hoping to profit from our country’s collapse: to reclaim what had been lost in earlier historical periods and to exact a form of revenge. As has now become evident to all, every one of those attempts, every destructive design against Russia, has ended in complete and total failure”.

Watch Those European Bonds

The 90 billion euro sweet loan is just the top of a deep, deep iceberg. Add to it the – still non-existent – funds to keep weaponizing Kiev as well as buying gas, fuel and electric energy, as Ukraine is totally dependent on the EU. In parallel, the EU lost the Russian market: in 2021, before the start of the SMO, the EU was exporting 90 billion euros a year to Russia.

The burning question of how much will it take to rebuild Ukraine has now reached forest fire territory. A 2024 World Bank study placed it at 600 bilion euros – to be paid in full by an EU locked in a Forever War mindset.

Considering how Russia is now on a roll bombing key Ukrainian military infrastructure, the final cost of the European adventure – after Napoleon and Hitler, now it’s the EU/NATO Coalition of Hell’s turn – may easily reach and surpass 1 trillion euros, complete with European-wide de-industrialization; loss of global competitivity; loss of the Russian market; an array of US tariffs; and total vassalization imposed by the Empire of Chaos.

As if all this concentric black void was not enough, German finance experts warn that the yield on European bonds is rising fast. After all, no one in his right mind will lend money to these Forever Wars “elites” at a low interest rate.

So the name of the game now is high risk – at the systemic level. This includes: governments refinancing debt at higher rates; corporations refinancing on even worse terms; banks tightening lending standards.

In a nutshell: Capital is flowing out of weak balance sheets. And bonds always move first, because they assess cash flows, not European warmongering narratives.

Every serious crisis starts with rising interest rates. 0% for Ukraine does not even qualify as a fairy tale. What matters, for starters, is what bank sharks will charge on that sweet 90 billion grant.

Don’t count on an European axis of sanity suddenly stepping up to save the former apex of civilization. That may take generations. Meanwhile, Tacitus applies. The Gods seem to be totally relishing the punishment inflicted on mere – taxpaying – mortals.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/26/2025 - 07:00

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My Boxing Day morning reads:

Playing Santa Does Strange Things to a Man. What It Did to Bob Rutan Was Even Stranger. Bob Rutan is legendary among the tight-knit fraternity of Macy’s Santa Clauses. Like many of these men, playing Santa changed Bob. Profoundly. His story is one of struggle and failure, heartbreak and grace and—yes—the magic of Christmas. (Esquire)

Can Netflix Help Save the American Mall? The entertainment company’s new “Netflix House” experience is bringing the brand’s shows into former department stores. Will streaming TV fans follow? (CityLab)

King of Cannibal Island: The tulip bubble​ is the most famous financial bubble in history, but as historical examples go it is also, in one crucial respect, misleading. That’s because anyone can see the flagrant irrationality which was at work. At peak tulip madness in 1637, rare bulbs were so expensive that a single one was worth as much as a fancy canalside house in Amsterdam. You don’t have to be Warren Buffett to see that the disconnect between price and value was based on delusional thinking. (London Review of Books)

No one knows anything. Let’s ask them about that: It’s never obvious what to do with thematic surveys. Is it positive or negative that 0 per cent of investors expect a new pandemic in the next 12 months? Should we assume their guess is probably right and buy airline stocks, or should we assume the consensus has underpriced the possibility and sell airline stocks? (FT Alphaville)

•  The Untold Story of Charlie Munger’s Final Years: The Berkshire vice chair was making gutsy investments, forging unlikely friendships and facing new challenges to the end. (Wall Street Journal)

It turns out that CBS forgot to cancel the broadcast of the piece in the Canadian market…  Here’s the 60 Minutes Segment Trump and CBS News Executives Don’t Want You to See Hours before it was set to air last night, CBS News executives pulled the segment, but Canada’s Global TV app received it prior to broadcast. (The Reset)

The Most Important Thing We Learned From Susie Wiles: Ever since the publication last week of a two-part article in Vanity Fair in which Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said all of that and more, political observers have been asking: Why did she do it? Why discard her usual discretion and speak so frankly, on the record, about her cracked compatriots in the Trump administration? (New York Times) see also 5 turning points that explain MAGA’s civil war. Today, the movement’s most consequential fights are unfolding beyond the control of its term-limited president — empowering rival factions to shape MAGA in their own image. MAGA entered the year with a sheen of invincibility, riding the high of Trump’s victory and united in his promise of a new “Golden Age.” It’s ending 2025 locked in an existential war over the future of conservatism. (Axios)

How Willie Nelson Sees America: On the road with the musician, his band, and his family. (New Yorker)

James Webb Space Telescope confirms 1st ‘runaway’ supermassive black hole rocketing through home galaxy at 2.2 million mph: ‘It boggles the mind!’ News By Robert Lea published December 17, 2025 “The forces that are needed to dislodge such a massive black hole from its home are enormous.” (Space.com)

How How the Grinch Stole Christmas: Behind the scenes of the lavish, painful, wigged-out movie that should have won Jim Carrey an Oscar. (Vulture)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

High market concentration isn’t a sell signal

Source: TKer

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