Individual Economists

It Was All A Mirage: 2.5 Million Native-Born US Workers Were Just Revised Away

Zero Hedge -

It Was All A Mirage: 2.5 Million Native-Born US Workers Were Just Revised Away

One of Donald Trump's core pre-election promises (along with cracking down on immigration and no more foreign wars) was to boost employment for local-born Americans at the expense of the record employment for foreign-born, mostly illegal, workers. And for a while it worked: four months ago, when discussing the September jobs report, we said that while the broader report was generally mixed, it was "indisputably strong when it comes to one thing: the rotation from foreign born workers to domestic ones. To wit: in September, the number of native-born workers surged by 676K (after the August drop of 561K), while foreign-born workers dropped by 70K."

The data showed that since Trump entered the White House "the number of foreign born workers has slumped from a record 33.7 million in March 2025 to 32.1 million, a drop of $1.6 million. This has been offset by a slow but consistent increase in native-born workers which had been unchanged for six years since 2019 until the start of 2025, at which point it started to rise again, and has increased from 131.2 million in March 2025 to a new record high of 133.2 million in September."

Why does this matter? Because today's job report, which was undeniably dismal and sparked added to the sharp selloff across the market, also updated the working age population calculations to reflect the latest US Census population count for 2025. The new controls led to a big change in the January estimate of various employment metrics. They

  • Lowered the working-age population by 231k;
  • Reduced the labor force by 1,417k;
  • Cut the employment level by around 1,432k;
  • Lowered the labor-force participation rate by 0.46 percentage point and the employment-to-population ratio by 0.47 ppt.

But perhaps the most important revision is that the entire boom in native-born employment was fake news: a statistical mirage spawned by some overzealous BLS staffer's excel model. 

Presenting exhibit A: the monthly change in native and foreign-born workers. It shows that while the number of native-born workers in February did post a solid rise of 877K - using the revised data - this was only after the January data was revised comprehensively to wipe out a record 2.5 million (exactly) native born workers.

And here is what it looks like over the longer-term: at just under 131 million, the number of native born workers is back to where it was in 2019.

Which means that what some consider the greatest accomplishment of the Trump admin was nothing more than statistical fake news. The silver lining: at least there is the Iran war to keep everyone distracted. 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:40

"Most Dangerous Geopolitical Blitz Since Bretton Woods": Trump Says Cuba's Communist Regime Is Next To Fall

Zero Hedge -

"Most Dangerous Geopolitical Blitz Since Bretton Woods": Trump Says Cuba's Communist Regime Is Next To Fall

"We've got plenty of time, but Cuba's ready," President Trump told CNN in an interview on Friday morning. The president told CNN reporter Dana Bash that Havana will "fall pretty soon" and that he will "place Marco over there." 

The Trump administration has communicated for months about toppling the Communist regime in Havana as power blackouts across the Caribbean island nation worsen this week. 

Trump's fuel blockade on Cuba has led some analysts to warn that the Cuban government will exhaust all fuel reserves by mid- to late March, bringing the island into complete paralysis.

It's clear that Trump has tasked Secretary of State Marco Rubio with leading the talks on a "friendly" takeover of the island. 

"They want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea," Trump said at the White House on Thursday.  

Making sense of the world seemingly in a fiery mess is Graham Cooke, founder of Brava (brava.xyz), an automated stablecoin yield platform, who wrote on X, "Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods. And the endgame isn't a trade war."

Cooke continued, "There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play -- one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for decades." 

Over the last two months, the Trump administration has increased pressure on Beijing. The timeline is very notable: Maduro's removal effectively shut Venezuelan crude flows to China; the U.S. then tightened Cuba's fuel position to position the island towards collapse to rid the communists from Havana; Panama eliminated Chinese-linked ports at the canal; and now, nearly a week into Trump's Operation Epic Fury against Iran, China's access to cheap Iranian crude and gas has been severed. All of this comes before Trump heads to China later this month, holding multiple new leverage cards in one absolutely insane chess game to play in the midterm election cycle. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:20

Virginia Democrats Move To Require Teaching Jan. 6th As An "Insurrection"

Zero Hedge -

Virginia Democrats Move To Require Teaching Jan. 6th As An "Insurrection"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Virginia Democrats are moving to require teachers to tell students that Jan. 6th was an “insurrection” and effectively bar them from referencing “peaceful protests” or election irregularities. The characterization of the riot as an insurrection is historically and legally false. However, any parents who want to send their children to Virginia public schools would have to accept this form of indoctrination as part of their children’s education.

In the last election, Democrats campaigned as moderates, including Abigail Spanberger.

Once in control of the Governor’s mansion and the legislature, however, they have moved quickly to the far left in a flurry of measures. Democratic legislators just voted themselves almost a 300% increase in salaries.  They will need it. They are moving to increase taxes on ride shares, concerts, counseling, leaf blowers, Amazon deliveries, DoorDash, Uber Eats, ammunition, and other areas.

However, HB 333, drafted by Del. Dan I. Helmer of Fairfax, raises serious concerns over academic freedom and free speech.

The summary of the bill mandates “a program of instruction on or relating to the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the United States Capitol” and further:

“prohibits any such program of instruction, any accompanying curriculum or instructional materials, or any instruction provided by a teacher as a part of such program of instruction from (i) describing, portraying, or presenting as credible a description or portrayal of the actions precipitating or involved in the January 6, 2021, insurrection as peaceful protest or (ii) stating, suggesting, or presenting as credible a statement or suggestion that there was extensive election fraud that could have changed or actually changed the results of the 2020 presidential election. The bill requires any such program of instruction, any accompanying curriculum or instructional materials, or any instruction provided by a teacher as a part of such program of instruction to describe the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the United States Capitol as an unprecedented, violent attack on U.S. democratic institutions, infrastructure, and representatives for the purpose of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election.”

Soon after Jan. 6th, I condemned the riot but rejected the argument that this was an insurrection. However, it soon became part of an orthodoxy in politics and academia despite the fact that the public rejected it. As former House Speaker Pelosi declared, “It is essential that we preserve the narrative of January 6th.”

Yet, “insurrection” and “sedition” are legal terms. They have a meaning. The FBI investigated thousands after January 6th and charged hundreds. Not one was charged with insurrection or conspiracy to overthrow the country. The vast majority are charged with relatively minor offenses of trespass or unlawful entry or property damage- the type of charges that are common in protests and riots.

Indeed, the Supreme Court effectively reduced many of the charges to mere trespass in later litigation, rejecting obstruction claims.

Faced with a collapsing historical and legal narrative, Democrats are now moving to simply indoctrinate students that this was an “insurrection.”

Notably, Helmer is running again for Congress after Democrats, with the support of Gov. Spanberger, moved to reduce Republicans in the state (which is divided down the middle between the parties) to just one of eleven districts through gerrymandering.

Helmer is running in one of the most notorious new districts, called the “lobster” or the “scorpion,” because it runs from the Potomac River in Arlington southwestward, then splits into two “claws” toward the West Virginia line near Rawley Springs and Goochland and Powhatan.

In my book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I discuss the radicalization of the American left. While many on the left advocate censoring “disinformation,” they are far less circumspect in promulgating their own disinformation.

Likewise, where Democrats have objected to the pressure put on universities for greater diversity of viewpoints as an attack on academic freedom, these Democrats see no problem in mandating the teaching of positions that are demonstrably false.

Here, Rep. Helmer and other Democrats are mandating the teaching of a false narrative to children rather than simply relying on public debate. The reason is that they are losing the debate over the characterization of this riot as an actual insurrection.

This, and other moves on the left, will only accelerate the exodus of families from public education. Notably, Fairfax County (which Helmer represents) has seen a sharp fall in enrollments in recent years.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:00

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