The US Will Struggle To Get Europe To Abide By Putin's Demand To Stop Arming Ukraine

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

A compromise is possible whereby the Europeans are pressured by the US into stockpiling their Ukrainian-destined arms in Poland and Romania for swift shipment across the border if hostilities re-erupt sometime after a ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty is agreed to.

The official Kremlin readout from Putin’s most recent phone call with Trump shared Putin’s demand that “a complete cessation of providing Kiev with foreign military aid and intelligence must become the key condition for preventing an escalation of the conflict and making progress towards its resolution.” Trump’s temporary suspension of such assistance proves that he has the political will to shut it off for good if he gets what he wants from negotiations with Putin, but the Europeans are a different story.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Trump during a Cabinet meeting on Monday before the end of the 12-hour-long Russian-US talks in Riyadh that day that “You’ve [promoted despite] despite impediments from other countries”, which was arguably an allusion to the Europeans’ warmongering. Although deliberately vague, he might very well have been referring to the EU’s and UK’s plans to continue arming Ukraine in spite of Putin’s demand that this cease as one of his most important conditions for peace.

Poland, Romania, and the Black Sea in descending order serve as the entry points for foreign weapons into Ukraine, none of which the US has full control over. It jointly operates the Rzeszow logistics hub in southeastern Poland through which an estimated 90-95% of all weapons to Ukraine pass but this facility can continue functioning even if the US pulls out. The situation is similar with Romania’s newly built “Moldova Highway” for facilitating the shipment of arms from Greek ports to Ukraine.

The US military only jointly operates local port facilities in Alexandroupolis while having no direct influence over the “Moldova Highway”, both of which can also continue functioning without it. As for the Black Sea, the new grain deal that the US is negotiating with Russia could either lead to international checks on cargo for detecting arms trafficking or create a plausible cover for this trade. In any case, just like the preceding two, the point is that others besides the US can rely on this route too.

Trump is unlikely to threaten economic sanctions against nominal NATO allies whose countries continue to arm Ukraine even if his own decides to cut it off for good as part of the series of pragmatic compromises that it’s negotiating with Russia for sustainably ending the conflict. The only scenario in which he might rally Congress to pass another arms package is if Russia significantly expands its ground campaign beyond the regions that it claims as its own as was discussed here.

As long as that doesn’t happen, then the US’ Biden-era aid will soon run out and Ukraine will then be entirely dependent on European aid, but it’s unclear whether that drastic curtailment in aid (also keeping in mind their already greatly depleted stockpiles) would suffice for Russia to cease hostilities. Putin might agree to it as part of the series of pragmatic compromises that he’s negotiating with Trump, or he could still lean on his counterpart to exert more pressure on the Europeans to follow in his footsteps.

Trump’s hands would be tied in the second scenario as was just explained, but he could also lead from the front by suggesting that the Europeans instead stockpile the equipment that they want to send to Ukraine in Poland and Romania per their “security guarantee” commitments to Kiev. These refer to the bilateral pacts clinched last year whereby major countries like the UK, France, Poland, Italy, and the US itself basically agreed to resume their existing level of support for Ukraine if hostilities re-erupt.

Whatever weapons the Europeans might still send to Ukraine wouldn’t compensate for the cut-off of US aid so they’d be transferring their equipment to be destroyed for no purpose other than delaying the inevitable political resolution of the conflict, by which time Russia could even gain more ground. Putin might of course prefer for NATO not to stockpile anything in proximity to Ukraine’s borders for swift shipment across if there’s a continuation war, but Russia can’t control what they do on their territory.

Trump and his team would therefore do well to convey these points to the Europeans in order to facilitate the Ukrainian peace process. Putin might not agree to a ceasefire or armistice so long as the Europeans continue arming Ukraine, which would be futile on their part in any case, while they’d just be wasting their weapons that could otherwise be put to better use if hostilities re-erupt and the US thus restores its prior level of support for Ukraine. This proposed compromise might lead to a breakthrough.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/28/2025 - 02:00

White House Withdraws Stefanik Nomination To UN Ambassador

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump has withdrawn the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) testifies before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on her nomination to be ambassador to the United Nations, on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 21, 2025. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Trump announced the move on Truth Social on March 27, citing the narrow majority the GOP has in the House.

“As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress. We must be unified to accomplish our Mission, and Elise Stefanik has been a vital part of our efforts from the very beginning,” he wrote.

“I have asked Elise, as one of my biggest Allies, to remain in Congress to help me deliver Historic Tax Cuts, GREAT Jobs, Record Economic Growth, a Secure Border, Energy Dominance, Peace Through Strength, and much more, so we can MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

“With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat.”

Trump said Stefanik will join his administration “in the future.”

The GOP has a narrow majority in the House as it looks to pass Trump’s legislative agenda.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Stefanik’s office for comment.

Stefanik served as the House GOP conference chairwoman. She stepped down from the role due to Trump nominating her to be ambassador to the U.N. She was succeeded by Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.). Trump said Stefanik will rejoin House GOP leadership. It is unclear which role she would be in.

The Epoch Times has reached out to McClain for comment.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Stefanik will be invited to rejoin House GOP leadership. What the role will be is unclear.

“It is well known Republicans have a razor-thin House majority, and Elise’s agreement to withdraw her nomination will allow us to keep one of the toughest, most resolute members of our Conference in place to help drive forward President Trump’s America First policies,” he wrote in a post on social media platform X.

“There is no doubt she would have served with distinction as our ambassador to the United Nations, but we are grateful for her willingness to sacrifice that position and remain in Congress to help us save the country. I will invite her to return to the leadership table immediately.”

During her nomination hearing, Stefanik denounced what she said is the “anti-Semitic rot” at the U.N., given its stance toward Israel.

“The U.S. is the largest contributor to the U.N. by far,” she said. “Our tax dollars should not be complicit in propping up entities that are counter to American interests, anti-Semitic, or engaging in fraud, corruption, or terrorism.”

The committee advanced her nomination to the Senate floor by voice vote on Jan. 30.

Stefanik has been one of Trump’s staunchest allies in Congress. She was the first member of Congress to endorse his 2024 campaign.

She was first elected to represent New York’s 21st Congressional District in 2014. At that time, she was the youngest woman elected to Congress in U.S. history.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 23:55

Federal Judge Denies Trump's Effort To Ban Transgender People From Military

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge on March 26 denied the Trump administration’s motion to dissolve her order that prevents the Pentagon from blocking transgender people from enlisting in the military, which was scheduled to go into effect on Friday.

U.S. Army paratroopers assigned to 1st Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division board an aircraft bound for the U.S. Central Command area of operations from Fort Bragg, N.C., on Jan. 5, 2020. U.S. Army/Spc. Hubert Delany III/Handout via Reuters

U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes filed a memorandum opinion and order on Wednesday denying the administration’s request to dissolve, or stay pending appeal, her March 18 preliminary injunction halting the new military policy.

The government filed an appeal after Reye’s Wednesday order.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Prioritizing Military Excellence and Readiness” on Jan. 27 that says individuals “expressing a false gender identity” do not meet the standards for military service and that “adoption of a gender identity inconsistent with an individual’s sex conflicts with a soldier’s commitment to an honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle.”

On March 18, Reyes ruled that Trump’s order likely violates the constitutional rights of transgender-identifying active-duty service members who challenged the order and could cause them irreparable harm. She agreed to stay the preliminary injunction until March 21 to give the administration enough time to appeal.

“Indeed, the cruel irony is that thousands of transgender service members have sacrificed—some risking their lives—to ensure for others the very equal protection rights the Military Ban seeks to deny them,” Reyes stated in a 79-page ruling.

During a March 21 hearing, Reyes requested that the Department of Defense delay its original March 26 deadline for instituting the policy.

The government filed a motion to dissolve the injunction on March 21 and argued that the policy is not an overarching ban on transgender-identifying people but rather “turns on gender dysphoria–a medical condition–and does not discriminate against trans-identifying persons as a class.”

The administration also asked that if the motion to dissolve is rejected, the court should stay the preliminary injunction pending appeal. It also cited new guidance issued on March 21 that clarified that “the phrase ‘exhibit symptoms consistent with gender dysphoria‘” only applies to “individuals who exhibit such symptoms as would be sufficient to constitute a diagnosis.’”

Reyes said she preferred to give additional time for the appeals process and said she had previously granted enough time to appeal her last opinion, stopping the ban from going into effect. She also acknowledged that the government’s cited guidance was new but that the defense’s argument was not.

“Defendants re-emphasize their ‘consistent position that the [Pentagon] Policy is concerned with the military readiness, deployability, and costs associated with a medical condition,’” Reyes wrote.

“Regulating gender dysphoria is no different than regulating bipolar disorder, eating disorders, or suicidality. The Military Ban regulates a medical condition, they insist, not people. And therein lies the problem.

“Gender dysphoria is not like other medical conditions, something Defendants well know,” Reyes wrote. “It affects only one group of people: all persons with gender dysphoria are transgender, and only transgender persons experience gender dysphoria.”

Aldgra Fredly contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 23:25

CBO Forecasts DOGE And AI Will Be Massive Failures: Sees US Debt Exploding As Productivity Collapses

Elon Musk's DOGE initiative will be an epic failure. 

That's the message from the latest forecast by the "non-partisan" Congressional Budget Office which projected staggering increases in federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years, coupled with a collapse in population growth and productivity, largely due to surging interest costs - the same soaring interest costs we have been warning about for years - as it laid out a dismal economic picture for the twilight days of the United States.

The CBO's latest long-term budget projections show federal deficits accelerating to 7.3% of the economy in fiscal year 2055 from 6.2% in 2025. That is up from the 30-year average from 1995 to 2024 of 3.9%. In other words, the CBO is giving zero credibility to DOGE's stated mission of slashing US spending and deficit. Just earlier today, Elon Musk said that his Govt Efficiency Department aims to finish $1 trillion in cuts by the end of May. Needless to say, the CBO disagrees.

But where it gets really scary is the CBO's update of what is arguably the scariest chart in the world: that of US public debt which is now seen rising alarmingly, to 156% of GDP in 2055 from 100% in 2025.

"Mounting debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook," the Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 stated. 

Of particular note, government interest payments on its ballooning debt were projected at 5.4% of GDP in fiscal year 2055, up from the anticipated 3.2% in the current fiscal year that ends on September 30. 

That too is overly optimistic: as we noted previously, interest on the debt will surpass social security spending as the #1 outlay as soon as 2027 unless interest rates tumble or debt is drastically reduced. Neither is likely to happen.

Breakdown of US spending by category: Interest on the debt will surpass social security as the #1 outlay by 2027 unless i) rates tumble; ii) debt is drastically reduced https://t.co/CYpYVPg9nJ pic.twitter.com/wuNBq59P6e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 12, 2025

At least the CBO acknowledges that interest costs are projected to be even larger than spending on the government's "discretionary" programs, such as military operations, air traffic control, law enforcement and nutrition programs. Altogether, those will comprise 5.1% of GDP in 2055.

The "non-partisan" CBO quickly showed its partisan colors by advocating implicitly for a resumption of Biden's illegal alien acceptance policies. According to the forecast, the aging US population will push spending on Social Security benefits to 6.1% of GDP in fiscal year 2055, up from 5.2% in 2025.

The CBO also forecast slower U.S. population growth over the next 30 years than during the past three decades largely due to reduced immigration. That will slow economic output in a shrinking labor force. Without mentioning Trump, it added: "Without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink in 2033."

Annual deaths are projected to exceed the number of births in the US just eight years from now, at which point net immigration would drive population growth. Last year, the CBO estimated the US population would begin to shrink in 2040, but that was thanks to Biden hoovering up every Venezuelan murdered-cum-illegal alien in hopes they would vote for him.

According to Bloomberg, the projection "showcases the risk of imposing draconian immigration policies at a time when the Trump administration has been implementing sweeping actions to curb the inflow of non-native-born people. Measures have included restricting deportation protections and sharply tightening border security. Border crossings in February were 94% lower than they were a year prior, according to US Customs and Border Protection data."

Net immigration would “increase the size of the overall population in coming years and boost the share of people in age groups that have higher rates of labor force participation,” the CBO said in its outlook. What the CBO forgot to add is net ILLEGAL immigration, which has been the primary source of net immigration in the past decade.

Because how will the US ever survive without continuing to import every Latin American criminal?

Overall, the CBO projected real economic growth, forecast at 2.1% in 2025, slowing to 1.4% in 2055.

At the same time, net immigration would “increase the size of the overall population in coming years and boost the share of people in age groups that have higher rates of labor force participation,” the CBO said in its outlook.

The silver lining to the economic slowdown is that it will keep rates on 10-year Treasury notes largely flat over the 30 years, "reflecting upward pressure from increases in federal borrowing and downward pressure from slowdowns in the growth of the labor force."

But things could get much worse. The CBO bases its projections on current law, which could change significantly in the short-term. That is due in part to the push now underway by President Trump and Republicans to slash federal spending and the government's workforce, while also extending tax cuts that are due to expire at the end of this year under current law.

“As bad as this outlook is, it represents an 'optimistic scenario,’ because policymakers are currently considering adding trillions more in tax cut extensions, which would add to the debt," said Michael Peterson, head of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which advocates fiscal policy reforms.

There are estimates that extending those tax cuts for a decade could add around $4.6 trillion to deficits and debt. House Republicans have proposed spending cuts, including to federal healthcare programs, to achieve some savings.

Trump also has ordered tough border security measures and efforts to deport immigrants that experts see potentially denting the economy as a result of labor shortages.

Another unknown factor is the outcome of court challenges to Trump policies that already are pending. The CBO does not include any consideration of the outcome of those court cases in its long-term projections. The report also does not factor in the potential impact on the U.S. economy from a broad range of tariffs Trump is implementing against foreign goods.

There was some good news: for now, the risk of a fiscal crisis “appears to be low,” but it’s not possible to reliably quantify the danger, the CBO said.

“In the agency’s assessment, no tipping point can be identified at which the debt-to-GDP ratio would become so high that it would make a crisis likely or imminent,” the report said. “Nor is there a specific tipping point beyond which inter­est costs would become so high in relation to GDP that they were unsustainable.” Uhm, maybe they should take a look at their debt forecast chart again.

But it's not just DOGE that the CBO dissed: it also threw the entire AI bubble under the bus. You see, despite all the current fervor over the application of artificial intelligence, the CBO is projecting weaker productivity gains over coming decades. That’s in part due to slower investment because of a crowding-out effect from massive public-sector borrowing.

“Increased federal borrowing is projected to reduce the resources available for private investment,” the CBO said. Declines in federal investment relative to GDP are also seen as a drag on so-called total factor productivity — a term to describe efficiency gains.

Well if only the previous administration hadn't listened to the CBO's cheerful forecasts years ago when the "nonpartisan" budget office said to do... precisely what was done and lo and behold, here we are. And now the CBO wakes up?

The bottom line, however, is that the CBO has openly declared war on Musk and is daring him to shutdown whole swaths of the government, and if there is anything Elon lives for, it's a dare. It sure would be ironic if the completely useless and thoroughly partisan CBO itself were to be the next to be eliminated.

Source: CBO

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 23:04

Boasberg Orders US Officials To Preserve Signal Messages

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge on March 27 ordered government officials to try to preserve their Signal messages about an attack on terrorists in the Middle East earlier this month.

“Defendants shall promptly make best efforts to preserve all Signal communications from March 11–15, 2025,” U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said in a minute order.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other top officials, who were part of a chat group on messaging platform Signal discussing the attack, must file a status report by March 31 on steps they’ve taken to preserve the messages, the judge said.

The order will expire on April 10 “in the event that Defendants’ measures are satisfactory to the Court,” Boasberg wrote.

The order was handed down after a hearing involving government lawyers and the watchdog group American Oversight, which sued the officials this week over their recently disclosed chat on Signal.

The mid-March discussion on Signal involved Hegseth, Secretary of State and acting Archivist Marco Rubio, and others. It centered on strikes in the Middle East against Houthi terrorists. Its existence was revealed after Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, was inadvertently added.

American Oversight said in its complaint, which was filed in federal court in Washington, that Signal is not authorized to preserve federal records, and at least one or more messages sent in the recent chat were deleted, violating the Federal Records Act (FRA).

American Oversight earlier this year submitted Freedom of Information Act requests to agencies headed by the defendants, including the Pentagon, seeking Signal records. Because the messages are not forwarded to official email accounts, American Oversight and other requesters are barred from obtaining the records, the suit states.

Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth in the Oval Office of the White House on March 21, 2025. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

An attorney for the government told the judge during the hearing that the government was “certainly looking to fulfill its obligations” in regard to the chats.

The attorney also said the agencies were looking to preserve the records they have, and that an order by the judge was unnecessary because the government was already working toward that goal.

She cautioned that the government was still in the process of determining which messages it possesses.

U.S. government lawyers had said in a filing to the judge that American Oversight’s allegation that officials have not taken measures to prevent the destruction of Signal messages, and are therefore violating the Federal Records Act, is not reviewable by the court under court precedent.

“Even if the claim were reviewable, it is belied by Defendants’ declaration submitted herewith. That declaration establishes that Defendants are taking steps to locate and preserve the Signal chat, and that at least one of the agencies has located, preserved, and copied into a federal record keeping system a partial version of the Signal chat,” they said.

The case was assigned to Boasberg, who recently blocked the government from deporting suspected and confirmed members of the Tren de Aragua gang under a wartime law that President Donald Trump invoked unless authorities had other reasons for the deportations.

The assignment was random, according to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

Stacy Robinson contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 22:35

Houthis Launch More Ballistic Missiles At Tel Aviv Despite Ongoing US Strikes

At a moment Western media has been consumed with 'Signalgate' - involving top Trump officials planning and discussing the initial March 15 bombing raid on Yemen and its aftermath via unsecure channels and with a journalist in the group - the Houthis have continued launching missiles directly at Israel, as well as against targets in the Black Sea.

Clearly the Pentagon's repeat bombing raids on the capital as well as the key port city of Hodeida have done nothing to actually deter the Houthi (Ansarallah) attacks.

On Thursday the group announced another ballistic missile attack. "The missile force targeted Ben Gurion Airport in the occupied Jaffa (Tel Aviv) area with a Zulfiqar ballistic missile, and a military target south of occupied Jaffa with a Palestine-2 hypersonic ballistic missile. The operation successfully achieved its goal," said a military statement.

Via Associated Press

The Israeli army confirmed there was an inbound missile, and sirens sounded across central Israel, sending tens of thousands into emergency shelters.

The IDF military said, "following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in several areas in Israel, two missiles launched from Yemen were intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory," adding that "sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol."

Israeli anti-air defense systems were active during the attack. The IDF has said at least two projectiles coming from the south were intercepted in the morning hours.

The Houthis further on Thursday said they've "targeted hostile warships in the Red Sea, including the American aircraft carrier (USS Harry S) Truman," which he said was "in retaliation to the ongoing US aggression against our country."

Below: two ballistic missiles are launched from Yemen Israeli media says they were intercepted, with no injuries reported.

Alarms sound over Jerusalem and central Israel as two ballistic missiles are launched from Yemen

Israeli media says they were intercepted, with no injuries reported pic.twitter.com/OpKNspVnI9

— RT (@RT_com) March 27, 2025

The Truman has been targeted several times over the past nearly two weeks. However, the Pentagon has given no indication it has ever been hit, or come even close to it - but details have been scant.

Meanwhile US airstrikes on Yemen have been ongoing:

Earlier Thursday, the rebels said two people had been killed in overnight air strikes near the rebel-controlled capital Sanaa that they blamed on the United States.

The Huthis' Al-Masirah TV channel reported nearly 20 strikes on Sanaa governorate, both north and south of the capital.

"The American aggression killed two and injured two," the Huthi-run health ministry's spokesman Anis al-Asbahi said on social media platform X.

Clearly at this point forces under US Central Command (CENTCOM) are in an active state of war in Yemen and the Red Sea.

Sirens sounding across central Israel. Ballistic missile launch from Yemen. pic.twitter.com/H9YemkjgnZ

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) March 27, 2025

And yet, there's still been no war authorization from Congress - or so much as a public debate. A tiny handful of Congressional leaders have called the US administration out on this, especially Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie. The US airstrikes also appear to be more about defending Israel, and less about immediate US national security interests.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 22:10

Kim Jong Un Unveils Large AI-Equipped Combat Drones

North Korea has unveiled a new batch of new AI-equipped suicide and reconnaissance drones which the country is showcasing as part of military modernization plans.

State-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Thursday that leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the testing of "various kinds of reconnaissance and suicide drones" which have long been in development by North Korea's Unmanned Aerial Technology Complex. One particular unmanned vehicle featured in an official photo set appeared huge in size...

KCNA via Reuters

KCNA noted that Kim has authorized expanding production of the drone line, and there are reports the program had the assistance of Russia.

Kim further at the event unveiled what's considered to be North Korea's first airborne early-warning aircraft.

"The field of unmanned equipment and artificial intelligence should be top-prioritized and developed in modernizing the armed forces," Kim announced.

The new airborne early warning and control aircraft is believed the result of North Korea modifying Russian-supplied aircraft into airborne radar platforms.

The plane will complement North Korea's existing ground-based radar systems, allowing better radar detection unhindered by the Korean peninsula's mountainous terrain.

As for the recent increasing military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, Western media reports on Wednesday say that North Korea sent at least 3,000 more soldiers to Russia early this year.

This is the conclusion of South Korean intelligence, and could bring the total amount sent in the context of the Ukraine war to somewhere between 12,000 to 15,000. Several thousand are believed to have been killed or injured, particularly in combat in Russia's Kursk.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 20:30

"Worst Of The Worst": Top MS-13 Leader Arrested In Virginia In Joint Operation

US law enforcement arrested one of the top three MS-13 gang leaders in the country after a Trump-backed operation in Virginia that resulted in the arrest of more than 340 criminals in the past month alone, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced.

"Early this morning, one of the top leaders of MS-13 was apprehended. He was the leader for the East Coast, one of the top three in the entire country, right here in Virginia ... He is an illegal alien from El Salvador — and he will NOT be living in our country much longer," said Bondi.

.@AGPamBondi: "Early this morning, one of the top leaders of MS-13 was apprehended. He was the leader for the East Coast, one of the top three in the entire country, right here in Virginia ... He is an illegal alien from El Salvador — and he will NOT be living in our country much… pic.twitter.com/cW8QJNe48L

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 27, 2025

"They executed a clean, safe operation and the bad guys in custody. And thanks to the FBI, we got one of the worst of the worst of the MS-13 off the streets this morning. Virginia and the country is a lot safer today," Bondi told Fox News following the arrest.

FBI Director Kash Patel said of the operation, "This is what happens when you let good cops be cops," after the arrest of the 24-year-old illegal immigrant from El Salvador during a raid near Dale City, Prince William County on Thursday morning.

.@FBIDirectorKash on the capture of an MS-13 leader: "This is what happens when you let good cops be cops and we're going to continue to let good cops be cops across this country... We are returning our communities to safety." pic.twitter.com/DXe68LA2eE

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 27, 2025

While few details about the operation have been released, it involved the FBI, ICE, ATF, the VA state police, and Prince William County PD.

Authorities have yet to release the suspect's name, but said he is one of the top three leaders of MS-13 operating in the US.

"Great job by Pam Bondi, Kash Patel, Tom HOMAN, and Kristi N, on the capture of MS13 leader - A big deal!" President Trump wrote on social media.

Of note, the FBI has arrested three individuals on its top 10 list in the past two months alone.

These are the foreign terrorists that Democrat judges want to keep in America. https://t.co/tXX19dOWfl

— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) March 27, 2025

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 19:40

Five Years Post-COVID: 10 Economic Indicators That Haven't Recovered

Authored by Peter Earle via TheDailyEconomy.org,

As we mark five years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many headlines trumpet the resilience of the US economy: unemployment is low, GDP has returned to growth, and markets have rebounded. But beneath the surface-level indicators lies a more complicated and sobering picture. 

A close examination of key economic metrics reveals that in several important areas, the US economy has not fully recovered from the effects of both the virus and the extraordinary government interventions it prompted. Despite warnings from economists and policy experts in 2020, the country implemented sweeping lockdowns, business closures, and monetary and fiscal expansions at a scale never seen before. These efforts were often framed as a necessary tradeoff between public health and economic output — a false dichotomy that ignored the long-run consequence of suppressing economic activity at such a vast scale. 

Today, the costs of those tradeoffs are still being paid, and the full price may not be known for years to come.

(All images sourced from Bloomberg Finance, LP)

1. US Manufacturers New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Conference Board)

One key indicator is the Conference Board’s New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft, which serves as a proxy for business investment in equipment and durable inputs. From 2015 through early 2020, the metric showed steady growth, signaling strong confidence and ongoing capital formation. But in the wake of pandemic disruptions, new orders plummeted. Although recovery began in 2021 and was supported by historically low interest rates, the metric remains below its pre-pandemic trajectory. As of March 2025, a slight month-over-month decline (-0.1 percent ) suggests that firms remain cautious about long-term investment. The uneven rebound signals lingering uncertainty in the business environment and may point to structural concerns like reshoring, labor shortages, or geopolitical risk.

2. US CPI Ex Food & Energy, Year-Over-Year (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation, remained stable at around 2 percent from 2015 to early 2020. But pandemic-era policies — including trillions in federal stimulus and prolonged supply chain disruptions — led to a surge in price growth. Core inflation peaked in 2022 and has cooled since, but as of early 2025, it remains elevated at roughly 3.1 percent year-over-year. This persistent inflation has eroded consumer purchasing power, particularly for middle- and lower-income households. It also complicates the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy, potentially dampening future growth.

3. Conference Board Consumer Consumer Confidence Present Situation (Conference Board)

Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, offers insight into how Americans perceive current economic conditions. Between 2015 and early 2020, consumer sentiment was buoyant, driven by low unemployment and strong income growth. The pandemic caused a steep drop, and while confidence has partially rebounded, it has not returned to prior highs. In 2025, many households remain wary amid ongoing concerns over inflation, interest rates, and job security. This hesitancy is reflected in cautious spending patterns and a reluctance to take on new debt, both of which could suppress future economic dynamism.

4. Real Average Hourly Earnings (1982–1984 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted) (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Real average hourly earnings (adjusted to 1982-1984 dollars) present a mixed picture. From 2015 to 2020, real wages rose modestly in line with productivity gains and low inflation. In 2020, as lower-wage workers were disproportionately affected by job losses, average real wages appeared to increase temporarily. But subsequent inflation wiped out those gains. By 2025, real wages have only slightly improved relative to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that nominal wage increases have not kept pace with the cost of living. This stagnation undermines household financial resilience and places greater pressure on public support programs.

5. US Average Hourly Earnings Private Nonfarm Payrolls (1982 Dollars) (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Similarly, real average hourly earnings in the private nonfarm sector have struggled to regain momentum. Prior to 2020, steady gains reflected a competitive labor market and healthy economic fundamentals. Post-pandemic, however, wage growth has been neutralized by rising prices, leaving many workers with stagnant or declining real incomes. While some sectors — such as tech and logistics — have fared better, much of the workforce remains in a holding pattern. This weak earnings recovery affects not just consumption but also savings, investment, and overall quality of life.

6. Total Net US Saving, All Sectors (Flow of Funds, NIPA) (US Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Net saving across all sectors, as measured by the Flow of Funds accounts, showed balance in the years leading up to the pandemic. In 2020, government transfers and reduced consumption pushed household savings to record highs. But that was a temporary artifact. As of 2025, net saving has returned to trend or even fallen below it, as households grapple with higher living costs and diminished purchasing power. This reversal undermines long-term capital accumulation and leaves families more exposed to economic shocks.

7. US Employment-Population Ratio, Total Labor Force (Seasonally and Not Seasonally Adjusted) (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The employment-population ratio offers a broad view of labor market health. From 2015 to 2020, it trended upward, reflecting robust employment gains across most demographics. The ratio collapsed in early 2020 due to mass layoffs and business shutdowns and has not fully recovered even five years later. Persistent shortfalls can be attributed to early retirements, long-term illness, childcare challenges, and shifting labor force preferences. A lower employment-population ratio means fewer workers supporting growing pool of retirees, with implications for productivity, tax revenues, social program solvency, and economic growth as a whole.

8. Food Price Indexes (Various Measures, US Bureau of Labor Statistics / USDA)

Food prices remained relatively stable for decades, with annual increases closely tracking general inflation. However, the combination of extraordinary fiscal and monetary expansion, global supply chain breakdowns, and labor dislocations during the pandemic triggered a sharp and sustained rise in food costs. Beginning in late 2020 and accelerating through 2022, food prices followed a classic “hockey stick” pattern, with steeper increases in staples such as meat, dairy, and grains. By 2025, although the rate of increase has moderated, prices remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels. For American households — particularly those with fixed or low incomes — this has created lasting pressure on household budgets and elevated food insecurity across communities.

9. Median Inflation Expectations (One-, Three-, and Five-Year Horizons) (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Inflation expectations are critical to economic decision-making, influencing wage negotiations, consumer spending, and business investment. Before the pandemic, one-, three-, and five-year inflation expectations were typically stable. Since 2020, however, these expectations have not only risen but become substantially more volatile. This shift reflects the uncertainty introduced by both the initial inflation spike and the policy responses that followed. Elevated and unstable inflation expectations increase the risk premium on investment, discourage long-term contracting, and diminish real wealth as households adjust their behavior to hedge against future price instability. For policymakers, regaining credibility around inflation targeting is now a central challenge.

10. Housing Affordability Index, First-Time Buyers (National Association of Realtors)

A combination of factors, including a flight from urban centers facilitated by historically low interest rates and limited inventory drove home prices to unprecedented levels, especially in suburban and rural areas. As a result, first-time buyers — who often lack significant savings — have, since the pandemic, been priced out of the market at historic levels. Massively expansionary Fed policies also drove asset prices, which include home prices, up much faster than wages. Fiscal stimulus programs intended to mitigate economic damage inadvertently fueled demand for housing, intensifying growing price increases. Those dynamics, coupled with ongoing supply chain issues and delays in new housing construction, have deepened the affordability gap to record lows (since 1986), placing homeownership increasingly out of reach of many aspiring buyers.

Taken together, the post-COVID trends in these economic phenomena make clear that while some headline figures paint a rosy picture, the US economy remains structurally altered by the events of 2020. Pandemic-era policies, ostensibly aimed at preserving lives and livelihoods, imposed immense costs on economic activity, some of which were foreseeable and avoidable. By presenting the crisis as a binary choice between public health and economic output, policymakers created a narrative that neglected the possibility of more balanced, targeted interventions. And now, five years later, the economy bears the weight of those decisions. The consequences — lost earnings, reduced investment, lingering inflation, and lower labor force engagement — are still unfolding. As we look ahead, it is crucial to understand that the price of those tradeoffs is not only massive, but still growing and will be paid in ways both visible and hidden for many years to come.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 19:15

Nevada Investigates Hundreds Of Potential 'Double Vote' Cases In 2024 Election

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nevada’s Secretary of State’s office is investigating more than 300 cases of possible double votes during the 2024 election, according to a recent report released by the office.

Voters head to Allegiant Stadium in Henderson, Nev., to cast their ballots in the presidential election, as well as other races, on Nov. 5, 2024. Jacob Kepler for The Epoch Times

State elections officials received at least 303 complaints about individuals trying to vote twice in the November election, the report found. Each individual who allegedly attempted to vote twice in the election was caught before they cast their second vote.

Five of the cases have been closed, including one that was referred to an unspecified “outside agency,” and the four remaining cases were marked as “civil notice/no violation,” the office said in the March 21 report. The remaining possible cases, 298, are still marked as “open” in the report.

The 303 potential cases represent about 0.02 percent of the ballots cast in the Silver State during last year’s General Election, the office said.

“The Secretary of State’s Office takes every allegation of election integrity violations very seriously and investigates them to the full extent of the law,” the report said.

The office is now working “very closely with the Attorney General’s Office through the investigative process,” the report added. “Once a determination is made regarding the validity of any allegations, a report is prepared and cases are referred to outside investigatory agencies, including the Attorney General’s Office and county District Attorney offices.”

In the report, officials provided examples of double-vote complaints and investigations.

“A father and son with the same name who live in the same household both receive a ballot. The son votes in-person. The father mistakenly fills out his son’s ballot and mails it to his County Clerk or Registrar’s Office,” it said, adding that the registrar or clerk may detect a double vote for the son but doesn’t count the second ballot that was cast.

An investigation is then launched, and the secretary’s office sends a Civil Letter Notice to the father.

“The letter details the situation and outcome of the investigation, with a warning that attempting to vote twice is illegal, however, no intent was found and no further action will be taken unless more information is revealed. All civil notices are tracked by our office to monitor potential future irregularities,” the report said.

It’s not clear whether the example is based on a real-world incident or was one of the cases that were investigated during the 2024 election.

Then-presidential candidate Donald Trump defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris in Nevada by about 46,000 votes, enough to secure the state and its six electoral votes. Trump also won every other speculated battleground state during that contest.

Trump and other Republicans have said they want to bolster election security, including voter ID laws; ensure more secure vote-by-mail procedures, including using paper ballots; and maintain more accurate voter rolls. Since 2020’s contest against Democrat Joe Biden, Trump has said he believes that the election was fraught with fraud that ultimately caused the election to be called in favor of his opponent.

After taking office more than two months ago, Trump has yet to sign an executive order on elections but appeared to preview a forthcoming decision during his first Cabinet meeting this month. Trump said in the meeting that he thinks the United States needs to have an “honest” election system, while making a call to “go back to paper ballots” and have elections be completed in one day.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 18:25

Watch: Carney Says Nothing Off Table As "Era Of Close Ties With US Is Over", But Delays Tariff Retaliation

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a blistering speech on Thursday, declaring that the era of deep economic, security and military ties with the United States "is over," after President Donald Trump announced steep auto tariffs of 25% on imports into the United States - which could affect an estimated 500,000 jobs in the Canadian auto industry.

Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada “won’t back down” from President Donald Trump’s trade war and tariffs on the auto sector.

"We will fight the U.S. tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of our own that will have maximum impact in the United States and minimum impacts here in Canada," Carney said during a press conference that took him off the campaign trail ahead of the country's April 28 general election, adding that "Nothing is off the table to defend our workers and our country."

One option would be for Canada to impose excise duties on exports of oil, potash and other commodities - however the Canadian government says they will delay any sort of announcement until they see what the Trump administration does on April 2, Carney told reporters.

Carney called Trump's auto tariffs "unjustified" and said they were in breach of existing trade deals, while also warning Candians that Trump had permanently altered relations to the point that regardless of any future deals, there would be "no turning back."

Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada "won't back down" from President Donald Trump’s trade war and tariffs on the auto sector.

Mark Carney is the former chair of Bloomberg's board of directors https://t.co/SYXhdGMOop pic.twitter.com/j1sPOHSy5a

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) March 27, 2025

"The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over," he said, adding that Canada's response to the tariffs "is to fight, is to protect, is to build."

"We will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of our own that will have maximum impact in the United States and minimum impacts here in Canada," Carney added.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford spoke with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and said Lutnick confirmed to him that Canada won't be hit with an 'immediate' tariff, and that finished vehicles with US parts will face a rate lower than 25%. A car with US parts would instead be subject to a tariff of 12.5%.

Ford told reporters Lutnick did not give him any assurances there would be any easing or softening of the tariffs.

When Ford was asked whether Lutnick knows what Trump is planning to announce April 2, he said. “I think he has an idea.” Then the premier added: “Or maybe he doesn’t. That’s even scarier if he doesn’t. So let’s see what they come forward with on April 2, but we’re prepared, we’re ready.” -Bloomberg

"Americans need us. I told him," said Ford of his call with Lutnick, adding that he's "not sure" if the Trump administration fully understands the North American vehicle supply chain.

"They don’t have the people down there to fill the jobs."

The White house, meanwhile, has reached out to schedule a call with Carney, which he says should happen in the "next day or two," but that while he'll talk to Trump - he will not participate in substantive trade negotiations with Washington until Trump shows Canada "respect," which would include cutting out Trump's repeated threats to annex Canada as America's 51st state.

"For me, there are two conditions, not necessarily for a call, but a negotiation with the United States. First Respect, respect for our sovereignty as a country... apparently it's a lot for him," Carney said, adding "There has to be comprehensive discussion between the two of us, including with respect to our economy and our security."

*  *  *

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Satisfaction guaranteed. If you think it's bullshit, or it just doesn't work for you, simply ask for a refund... Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 18:20

What IT Security?

Authored by Karl Denninger via Market-Ticker.org,

Oh boy....

President Donald Trump revealed that a staffer with national security advisor Mike Waltz's office included the editor-in-chief of the Atlantic in a Signal group chat with senior Trump officials who were discussing plans for an upcoming strike on Houthi rebels in Yemen.

"It was one of Michael’s people on the phone. A staffer had his number on there," Trump told NBC in a phone interview when asked how Jeffrey Goldberg, the Atlantic's editor-in-chief, was added to the high-profile chat.

Who was the person with zero IT security expertise that had people in the DOD and NatSec part of the government using anything other than their own infrastructure for such things?

There's utterly no reason to ever trust any external system for sensitive information internal to the government.

Ever.

Let's say, for example, I send you an email.  I typically "sign" them.  By doing this the email has included both an attestation that it has not been altered, as otherwise the signature will not validate, and my public key.

Now if your computer has a trust chain to verify that -- and I publish that, by the way (so it can validate that public key is good) then you can now send me an encrypted message.  Once you do so not even you can read it -- only I can, because I'm the only one with the other half of the key.

With me so far?

Now let's say we start up a conversation and we have ten people in there.  I send an encrypted message to all ten. What I actually send is ten messages because each person's public key is different and again, each of them are the only people with the other half of it.  So far so good.  They each get it, they can decode it, but not the copy sent to anyone else -- and since I signed it if that signature verifies they know it hasn't been tampered with in transit.

But in this case, since you care about the integrity of who can be a part of conversations generally, all transmissions go through the government's infrastructure.  The government, incidentally, already has the PKI infrastructure (issuing certificates, attesting to them, etc. -- this is part of, but not all of, how a CAC card works) to do all this.

Thus when you send the message the server -- which is a DOD/NatSec server -- is the machine that processes it.  Because a public key is in fact public it knows who the message is going to (all of the recipients) and whether the DOD/NatSec servers issued the certificates involved and to whom.

The server cannot see the unencrypted contents of the message as only the recipient of each transmission has the private key required to decode it -- but it knows who its going to and their public certificate.  This means it can be set up to look at same and refuse to deliver a message if it is to someone who doesn't have a DOD-issued certificate and, for example, the other people in the communication do; it could either embargo it (after all, there might be circumstances where this is legitimate) or alert someone that something hinky may be going on, throw it in the trash summarily, or some combination.

It can't see the contents, but it can interdict the message before it ever leaves the DOD and identify who transmitted it because the machine that sent it is known.

In other words if you set things up properly, and run them properly, what happened can't happen and if it is attempted, either by accident or malice, not only does it not work the person who did it gets busted if the transmission was not legitimate.

Yeah.

That.

Security of communications is supposed to be important.... right?

So why did CISA, which is an official government agency, recommend Signal specifically when it has no nexus within the government and thus, while it may be end-to-end encrypted (and not full of holes, which I can't speak to since I've never looked at it in sufficient detail to have a valid opinion) it has no means of controlling who is in a chat nor to prevent anyone who might, whether through accident or malice, add someone unauthorized to a new or existing one and there is no means for the participants or organization to which they belong to vet who is in said chat.

You can have the best encryption on the planet -- absolutely impossible to break -- but if there is either someone foolish or malicious it is meaningless exactly as while you can have a fortified home or business if you leave the front door unlocked it matters not.

The entire reason you use a chain of trust and only allow entities known to have been authorized through that chain to be included in any sort of access regime is precisely this.  Humans are both fallible and, from time to time, corrupt.

Either is fatal to a security scheme and thus you must design in and insist on a control process to mitigate that risk.

We do not, at present, know if the breach here was due to stupidity (accident counts) or malice but what we do know is that CISA -- an official government source -- made a recommendation during the last Administration (so no, you can't lay this one on Trump) to use infrastructure for allegedly "secure" communications that lacked any measure of control over human accident or malice in terms of recipient (and group) management.

This incident, beyond the actual person who added (or changed) the recipient so that reporter was in the list, is directly chargeable against CISA and their recommendation.  Since it is their job to put forward such standards for the government this is a fatal failure and every individual involved in that process, no matter how small their involvement, must be both publicly identified and expelled.  As there was apparently no classified data breached as a result of this criminal sanction is not appropriate -- but permanent severance from any government employment now and in the future, along with summary and permanent revocation of any clearance held by said persons is not just advisable -- it is mandatory.

Security is a process, not a product.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 17:40

Some Illegal Immigrants Deported Under Alien Enemies Act Were Returned To US: Filings

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

At least 10 illegal immigrants who were recently deported by U.S. authorities to El Salvador were returned to the United States, according to new court filings.

A deportation flight boards passengers from Panama funded by the United States, in Panama City on Feb. 13, 2025. Telemetro via AP/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

Nine women on one of the planes that landed in El Salvador were kept on board the aircraft and ultimately transported back to America, a Venezuelan national with the initials S.Z.F.R. said in one of the documents that was filed with the federal court in Washington on March 24.

The woman said that after a refueling stop, the plane was said to have landed in El Salvador. The men were led off the plane, but the women were not.

“I was told that the President of El Salvador would not accept women. I was also told that we were going back to detention in the U.S.,” the woman said.

She said that all of the women on the plane were taken to Laredo, Texas, where they had been before departing for El Salvador.

The sworn declaration was entered in a legal case involving the use of the Alien Enemies Act by the Trump administration. After President Donald Trump signed an order declaring an invasion of the United States by the Venezuelan terrorist gang Tren de Aragua, U.S. authorities transported some illegal immigrants suspected of being part of the gang to El Salvador, which entered an agreement with the United States to accept criminal deportees for incarceration.

Venezuelans in immigration custody sued, alleging the proclamation was illegally being used against nationals of a country that is not at war with America.

 U.S. District Judge James Boasberg on March 15 blocked the administration from deporting alleged gang members solely under the Alien Enemies Act. A U.S. official said that two planes were already outside U.S. airspace when the judge’s order was released. A third plane did depart after the order but contained illegal immigrants who had been ordered removed by U.S. judges, the official said.

In a separate declaration, a Nicaraguan male whose name was redacted said he was placed on a plane on March 15 along with others, including Venezuelan and El Salvadoran nationals. He said the plane flew to El Salvador and that he was removed from the aircraft. After he answered questions about his citizenship, he was told to sit on the floor of one of the planes, he said.

“I overheard a Salvadoran official tell an ICE officer that the Salvadoran government would not detain someone from another Central American country because of the conflict it would cause. I also heard him say that they would not receive the females because the prison was not for females, and females were not mentioned in the agreement,” the man said.

The man said he was sent back to Texas, arriving on March 16.

“These declarations are submitted to refute the government’s contention that it was not ‘feasibl[e]’ for the planes to bring anyone back and that this Court did not account for practical considerations like whether the planes ‘had enough fuel’ to turn around,” lawyers for the illegal immigrants told Boasberg.

In a previous motion, government lawyers said the judge incorrectly suggested that a government attorney was able to divert the aircraft carrying the deportees.

“The comment betrayed a complete misunderstanding of the serious national security, safety, regulatory, and logistical problems presented by a fiat from the Court directed at pilots operating outside the United States and was made without regard to whether any such aircraft could feasibly be diverted or even had enough fuel to safely do so,” the government lawyers stated.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment.

Lawyers for the plaintiffs say Boasberg should find that the illegal immigrants were illegally removed in violation of his order and that he should order those who were illegally deported to be returned to the United States.

In other developments in the case on Thursday, a federal court heard the Trump administration’s appeal of Boasberg’s order. The administration invoked a state secrets privilege, informing the judge that officials would not provide information about deportees.

Boasberg said on Friday that plaintiffs must respond to the invocation by March 31 if they want to be heard.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 17:00

Appeals Court Halts Judge's Order Requiring Musk To Hand Over DOGE Records

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court has temporarily blocked a discovery order from U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan that would have required Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to turn over documents and respond to written questions about their role in advising cuts in certain parts of the federal government.

In a ruling issued on March 26, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit granted an emergency stay of Chutkan’s March 12 order, which had largely granted limited, expedited discovery to a coalition of 13 Democratic-led states, requiring Musk and DOGE to produce documents and respond to questions within 21 days.

The appeals court ruled that Musk and DOGE had “satisfied the stringent requirements for a stay” and showed that they are likely to prevail in their claim that the lower court must resolve their motion to dismiss before allowing discovery to proceed.

“In particular, petitioners have shown a likelihood of success on their argument that the district court was required to decide their motion to dismiss before allowing discovery,” the three-judge panel wrote in its ruling.

Following the appellate court ruling, Chutkan entered a minute order acknowledging the decision. She has canceled a status hearing previously scheduled for March 27.

The case, brought by New Mexico and a coalition of 12 Democratic-led states, challenges the legality of DOGE’s sweeping cost-cutting efforts, which have included the cancellation of federal grants and mass terminations of government employees from jobs identified by DOGE as unneeded.

The plaintiffs argued in their original complaint that Musk is effectively running DOGE without Senate confirmation, allegedly in violation of the Constitution’s Appointments Clause.

“Oblivious to the threat this poses to the nation, President Trump has delegated virtually unchecked authority to Mr. Musk without proper legal authorization from Congress and without meaningful supervision of his activities,” the plaintiffs allege. 

“As a result, he has transformed a minor position that was formerly responsible for managing government websites into a designated agent of chaos without limitation and in violation of the separation of powers.”

In a subsequent motion for a temporary restraining order against Musk and DOGE, the states further accused Musk of unlawfully exercising sweeping executive power without Senate confirmation, directing federal agencies to fire employees, cancel contracts, dismantle programs, and access sensitive government data.

In response, government lawyers urged the court to reject the emergency motion. They argued that the states had failed to show any imminent or irreparable harm, and said the restraining order sought was overly broad, legally unsupported, and disconnected from core constitutional claims made by the plaintiffs. Even if Musk were improperly appointed, they argue, sharing data with him or others at DOGE does not, by itself, constitute an illegal exercise of government power. Musk also is not empowered to act without the president’s approval, they said.

Chutkan partially sided with the Democrat-led states on March 12, ordering Musk, DOGE, and related entities to turn over documents about firing federal workers and altering government databases. She also required DOGE to identify everyone who has led or worked at the agency since President Donald Trump took office, and list all agencies where DOGE or Musk canceled contracts, cut grants, or terminated employees.

Trump and Musk have both said that DOGE has been assisting various agencies that have fired or offered buyouts to tens of thousands of federal workers since Trump returned to office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Musk, as a special government employee, has been tasked by Trump to lead DOGE to help fulfill his campaign pledge of reducing waste, streamlining federal operations, and cutting red tape.

The DOGE team has taken quick action to audit and pursue reforms across federal agencies. It recently reported $130 billion in savings through canceled grants, asset sales, workforce reductions, and terminated contracts and leases.

Critics of DOGE have argued that its activities raise security and oversight issues, with a number of lawsuits filed challenging its operations.

Musk recently revealed that the DOGE team has been receiving death threats on a daily basis.

“The DOGE team is getting death threats every single day,” Musk said during a March 24 White House cabinet meeting. “They’re just trying to do the right thing for the American taxpayer and for the American people.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 15:40

A Blueprint For Dismantling The Fed

Authored by Alex Younger via The Mises Institute,

So much has been written about why we should end the Federal Reserve, and with the recent public demand for an audit, the message has finally reached the masses. Hopefully, if such an audit manifests, it will be the first step toward ultimately dismantling the Federal Reserve. (We should start with the extremely shady Bank Term Funding Program). But very little has been written about how to end the Federal Reserve, and that is what I wish to address here.

The How

You may read through my proposed plan and disagree with me on the details. But we must agree on this point: The key objective is to minimize any fluctuations in the current money supply as best we can. This can be done in a delicate manner that might even go unnoticed by the market, outlined in 5 steps:

1. Revoke All Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Privileges

The Federal Reserve should no longer have the ability to directly manipulate the money supply. Repeal the Federal Reserve Act.

2. Lock Down All Debt Assets on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

This refers to all assets on the balance sheet with a contractual expiration, such as US Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and other loan types. These assets make up roughly 99 percent of the Fed’s balance sheet. Rather than selling them, they should be allowed to expire naturally over the next 30 years—the longest duration of USTs and MBSs. During this period, the Fed may still collect interest payments on these assets and reinvest them to prevent removing those funds from the monetary base.

3. Gradually Sell Off Non-Expiring Assets

Any assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet that lack a contractual expiration should be sold off gradually over a period of 1 to 5 years. At present, I have been unable to find a reliable estimate of how much of this asset type exists, but I suspect it is relatively small—possibly less than a billion dollars.

4. The Federal Reserve Becomes a True Private Institution with No Special Legal Privileges

The Federal Reserve should operate as a fully private institution, stripped of any special legal banking privileges. Its only remaining advantages would be its established market position, its role in facilitating bank-to-bank lending, the interest payments from existing assets on its books, and its historical significance. This is far more than it deserves, but the primary objective must be to dismantle its power without triggering economic catastrophe.

5. If the Federal Reserve Cannot Function as a Private Bank

If the Federal Reserve fails to maintain its market position—which is likely, given that it has never truly faced competition—then major banks will need to determine among themselves how to facilitate interbank lending. They may assign central banking functions to other private institutions, operating within the limits of private banking law. Alternatively, the market may simply deem the Federal Reserve obsolete, allowing it to wither away naturally. Either outcome would be entirely acceptable.

The Balance Sheet Details

As of this writing, the Federal Reserve holds $6.8 trillion on its balance sheet. This follows a sharp 25 percent reduction from its previous $8.9 trillion over the past two years—a decrease of $2.1 trillion. In other words, the Fed initially printed $8.9 trillion and used this newly-created money to purchase assets in the market.

What has the Federal Reserve been buying? Primarily US debt. Our financial system functions like an ouroboros, with the Federal Reserve acting as a perpetual buyer of new government debt—funded by printed money. As of this writing, the Fed holds approximately $5 trillion of the national debt and artificially inflates domestic demand for it. Ending the Federal Reserve would severely restrict the government’s ability to create new debt, forcing a fundamental shift in government spending policy:

Fed Balance Sheet Composition

Currently, $4.2 trillion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet consists of US Treasury bonds (USTs), while another $2.2 trillion is made up of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Together, these two asset classes account for $6.4 trillion, or about 94 percent of the total balance sheet. The remaining 6 percent is a mix of various other debt securities, including corporate debt, federal agency debt, and other loan types, all of which also have contractual expiration dates.

Natural Expiration of Debt Assets

Let’s consider the potential consequences of abandoning current monetary policy and requiring the Federal Reserve to let its debt assets naturally roll off the balance sheet. Debt contracts have expiration dates, meaning that once they reach maturity, they expire worthless and can simply be removed from the balance sheet without active intervention. This approach would gradually shrink the Fed’s holdings over time, reducing its influence on the financial system without the immediate shock of mass asset sales.

Here is a projection of the balance sheet over the next 30 years under this plan:

Projection of Assets Naturally Expiring on Fed Balance Sheet.

The debt expirations are front-loaded, meaning the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet would experience a sharp initial decline before tapering off over time. In the first year, we would see a significant 10 percent reduction, which would gradually level out to a 1.7 percent decrease per year. On average, the decline would be around 3.1 percent annually.

This projection assumes the Fed has purchased debt with an evenly distributed range of expiration dates across different maturity groups, which is likely accurate. In reality, the actual decline would be somewhat more volatile due to variations in the composition of the Fed’s holdings.

Not Quantitative Tightening

The key advantage of this approach is that it differs from traditional quantitative tightening. No funds would be actively removed from banks’ reserves—those reserves would remain at their current levels. Instead, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet would shrink passively as debt assets naturally expire, avoiding the disruptive liquidity drain that comes with aggressive asset sales.

To fully understand this, a brief crash course in quantitative tightening (QT) is necessary. Admittedly, there is a certain genius to the way Federal Reserve monetary policy operates. When the Fed tightens, it sells assets from its balance sheet to primary dealers (large banks) on the open market. The Federal Reserve essentially functions as a “bank for big banks,” where major US banks store their reserves much like a savings account. These reserves not only remain at the Fed but also earn interest, just like a traditional savings account. This structure allows the Fed to influence liquidity in the financial system without directly impacting the day-to-day operations of commercial banks, making its monetary policy more indirect but highly effective.

When the Fed sells assets to primary dealers, it sells to banks that already have reserve accounts at the Fed. This means the money used to purchase these assets is already parked at the Federal Reserve. When the Fed either sells securities or allows them to mature without reinvesting, two things happen simultaneously: 1) the Fed’s assets decrease as the securities leave its balance sheet; 2) the bank’s reserve account at the Fed decreases by the same amount. These two changes cancel each other out, effectively removing that portion of the monetary base from circulation. This is how quantitative tightening (QT) functions—it contracts the money supply by destroying reserves, rather than directly pulling cash from the economy.

The key difference in my proposed approach is that the Fed would continue receiving interest payments on its remaining assets for the duration of their terms. The most realistic scenario is that these funds will be used to pay interest on reserves held by banks at the Fed, allowing normal banking operations to continue without disruption. However, unless the Fed finds an alternative revenue source, the interest on reserves rate can be expected to gradually decline over the next 30 years as assets roll off the balance sheet. This slow adjustment provides banks with ample time to determine how to manage their reserves in a post-Fed environment.

Inflationary vs. Deflationary Pressures

One likely outcome of this transition would be an increase in business investment by big banks. The interest on reserves paid by the Fed has historically discouraged banks from investing in the open market. From the bank’s perspective, why would I go make a risky investment into some startup, or some business which could hit rough waters and default, when I could just park my assets at the Fed and make a risk-free 4.4 percent? Basically, the Fed has been paying banks to not loan you money.

As the Fed’s ability to pay interest on reserves diminishes over time, banks would have a stronger incentive to deploy their capital elsewhere, likely fueling greater investment in businesses, loans, and other market-driven opportunities. This new pressure on banks to seek better investment opportunities within the first five years of this transition will create an inflationary counterbalance to the deflationary pressure that naturally comes with ending the Fed.

As banks shift their reserves into the market, increased lending and investment could stimulate economic activity, offsetting the contractionary effects of removing the Fed’s artificial demand for debt. This dynamic could help stabilize prices during the transition, preventing a sudden economic shock while still moving toward a more market-driven monetary system.

Conclusion

The ideal outcomes from this arrangement would be the following:

• The Fed loses its extra-legal authority, operating solely as a private institution;

• Direct central planning of interest rates ends, eliminating monetary supply manipulation;

• Minimal fluctuation in the money supply, as bank reserves remain unaffected and the Fed continues receiving interest payments on its debt assets, preventing a liquidity drain;

• Market stability, with little disruption to economic equilibrium;

• Slight dollar appreciation, as the deflationary effects of ending the Fed are counterbalanced by banks investing their reserves;

• No rush for banks to find alternative bank-to-bank lending solutions, ensuring a smooth transition;

• No need to rewrite ACH payment systems, which currently rely on the Federal Reserve;

• Greater urgency in reducing federal debt, as an appreciating currency increases the real debt burden;

• A shift toward more prudent and productive financial behavior, as stronger purchasing power encourages saving and discourages reckless debt accumulation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 15:00

Judge Declines Trump Admin Request That She Recuse Herself From Perkins Coie Case

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has declined a request by the Trump administration that she remove herself from overseeing a lawsuit challenging an executive action targeting Perkins Coie LLP, accusing the Justice Department of attacking her character in an effort to undermine the integrity of the judicial system.

U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell wrote in a March 26 ruling that a Trump administration filing seeking her recusal was “rife with innuendo” and that none of the claims it put forward “come close to meeting the standard for disqualification.”

“Though this adage is commonplace, and the tactic overused, it is called to mind by defendants’ pending motion to disqualify this Court: ‘When you can’t attack the message, attack the messenger,’” U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell wrote in a March 26 ruling.

President Donald Trump’s action issued on March 6 prevents law firm Perkins Coie from doing business with federal contractors and blocks its lawyers from accessing government officials.

Additionally, it suspends any active security clearances held by individuals at the firm, pending a review of whether such clearances are consistent with the national interest.

Perkins Coie was hired by Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee in 2016.

According to the presidential action issued by Trump, the law firm has engaged in “dishonest and dangerous activity” that has affected the United States “for decades.”

The firm sued the administration over the order in federal court in Washington on March 11, alleging Trump’s actions violated its rights under the U.S. Constitution.

Roughly a week after Trump’s executive action was first issued, Howell temporarily blocked the administration from enforcing much of it, finding the law firm was likely to win its lawsuit.

Last week, the Department of Justice (DOJ) asked for the case to be moved to another judge in Washington’s federal court, citing Howell’s public comments about the president and her connection with key aspects of the case.

“This Court has not kept its disdain for President Trump secret,” Chad Mizelle, acting associate attorney general at the DOJ, wrote in a motion seeking her disqualification. 

“It has voiced its thoughts loudly—both inside and outside the courtroom.”

Speaking inside the court, Mizelle also pointed to now-former special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of Trump, during which he said that Howell found “reason to believe that the former President would ‘flee from prosecution.’”

The judge also “pierced attorney-client privilege, ordering President Trump’s attorney to testify before a D.C. grand jury” investigating his alleged retention of classified documents in the South Florida case, he said.

Mizelle added that Howell also previously rejected Trump’s view that the indictments against individuals involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol were a “national injustice” and called his supporters “sore losers.”

In her 21-page ruling, Howell wrote that when the DOJ “engages in this rhetorical strategy of ad hominem attack, the stakes become much larger than only the reputation of the targeted federal judge.”

“This strategy is designed to impugn the integrity of the federal judicial system and blame any loss on the decision-maker rather than fallacies in the substantive legal arguments presented,” she added.

The judge said she welcomed the Trump administration’s opportunity “to set the record straight, because facts matter.”

“Every litigating party deserves a fair and impartial hearing to determine both what the material facts are and how the law best applies to those facts,” she wrote. 

“That fundamental promise, however, does not entitle any party—not even those with the power and prestige of the President of the United States or a federal agency—to demand adherence to their own version of the facts and preferred legal outcome.”

“The clear absence of any legitimate basis for disqualification requires denial” of the DOJ’s request that she recuse herself from the case, the judge said.

Howell is set to decide in the coming weeks whether to extend her block on Trump’s order against Perkins Coie.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Perkins Coie for comment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 14:25

Ugly, Tailing 7Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand In 3 Years

Moments ago, the Treasury sold the week's final coupon auction and after a stellar stopping through 2Y sale, a mediocre, tailing 5Y, today's 7Y was the ugliest of the lot.

Stopping at a high yield of 4.233%, the auction yielded 0.4bps more than February and also tailed then When Issued 4.227% by 0.06bps; this was the first tail for the 7Y tenor since August 2024.

The bid to cover dropped to 2.534 from 2.638, the lowest since August 2024, and obviously below the six-auction average of 2.69.

But it was the internals there were downright atrocious, as Indirects were awarded only 61.2%, down from 66.1%, and the lowest since March 22! At the same time, Directs jumped to 26.1% (the most since, yes, March 22), which left just 12.7% to Dealers.

Overall, this was the ugliest 7Y auction in years, and while not as catastrophic as the legendary Feb 2021 auction which was, for all intents and purposes, failed, the taste left in investors' mouths after the dismal lack of foreign demand will reverberate for a long time, because it has been a while since we saw such ugly auctions on days when the market is melting down.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 13:28

Department Of Energy Further Postpones Biden-Era Home Appliance Rules

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said this week that the Department of Energy (DOE) had further postponed the effective dates for three Biden-era home appliance mandates.

The mandates were previously postponed in February. The department has delayed “effective dates for three home appliance rules: Test Procedures for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps, Efficiency Standards for Walk-In Coolers and Freezers, and Efficiency Standards for Gas Instantaneous Water Heaters,” according to the DOE’s March 24 statement.

The department has also officially withdrawn four conservation standards that applied to ceiling fans, dehumidifiers, external power supplies, and electric motors.

The decision “marks a key step in lowering costs, enhancing performance, and expanding options for American consumers,” the department said.

The Biden-era rule on central air conditioners and heat pumps amended test procedures for these appliances, with manufacturers required to use the new test procedures on their products. The effective date of the rule was Feb. 6.

Regulations on coolers, freezers, and gas water heaters amended energy conservation standards for these appliances, with the updated rules initially set to be effective from Feb. 21, and regulations for gas water heaters initially to be effective from March 11.

At the time, the DOE, under the Biden administration, said that the updates “would result in significant conservation of energy, and are technologically feasible and economically justified.”

In 2023, consumer watchdog Alliance for Consumers calculated the cost of President Joe Biden’s regulations on appliances such as water heaters, air conditioners, gas stoves, and other devices. The watchdog found that these measures would cost the average American household more than $9,100.

In its decision to delay the effective dates of the three home appliance rules, the DOE said it acted in accordance with President Donald Trump’s Jan. 31 executive order “Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation.”

The presidential action aims to “alleviate unnecessary regulatory burdens” and prevent the federal regulation from imposing “massive costs on the lives of millions of Americans.”

Wright said that the DOE is taking “critical steps” to help American families prosper under the Trump administration.

“By removing burdensome regulations put in place by the Biden administration, we are returning freedom of choice to the American people, ensuring consumers can choose the home appliances that work best for their lives and budgets,” Wright said. “This power should not belong to the federal government.”

Tackling Appliance Rules

Republican lawmakers have taken action against the Biden administration’s policies targeting appliances.

In January, the House passed a resolution to repeal energy standards targeting consumer gas-fired instantaneous water heaters. Eleven lawmakers from the Democratic Party joined Republicans in voting for the resolution.

At the time, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said that the American people “made it clear they want lower costs and more choices, and we are keeping our promise to undo the damage of the last administration.”

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) supported the resolution, criticizing the new standards for gas water heaters, warning that the rules would push up costs and create “unnecessary challenges,” thus significantly affecting builders and homeowners.

“The push for a shift to more expensive condensing gas water heaters presents substantial hurdles for remodeling and replacement projects, especially in older homes,” the association said in January. “Furthermore, NAHB is concerned that this rule is part of a broader agenda to phase out natural gas appliances, ultimately limiting consumer choice and driving up utility costs.”

DOE also said in February that it was developing a new energy efficiency category for natural gas tankless water heaters.

“Creating a new category for these popular and low-cost water heaters exempts these products from the Biden–Harris Administration’s onerous rules and gives the American people the power to choose the best option for their homes and budgets,” the department said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 13:05

"Reducing Bureaucratic Sprawl": RFK Jr. Cuts 10,000 Jobs From Health & Human Services Department

Update: Moments ago, the Department of Health and Human Services released its plan to "save taxpayers $1.8 billion per year through a reduction in workforce of about 10,000 full-time employees as part of this latest transformation."

HHS will "streamline the functions of the Department. Currently, the 28 divisions of the HHS contain many redundant units. The restructuring plan will consolidate them into 15 new divisions, including a new Administration for a Healthy America, or AHA, and will centralize core functions such as Human Resources, Information Technology, Procurement, External Affairs, and Policy. Regional offices will be reduced from 10 to 5," the agency wrote in the press release. 

The overhaul is focused on HHS's new priority: Ending America's epidemic of chronic illness by focusing on safe, wholesome food, clean water, and the elimination of environmental toxins. 

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy stated, "We aren't just reducing bureaucratic sprawl. We are realigning the organization with its core mission and our new priorities in reversing the chronic disease epidemic," adding, "This Department will do more – a lot more – at a lower cost to the taxpayer."

*   *   * 

The Wall Street Journal has obtained documents indicating that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is preparing to announce large job cuts to overhaul the nation's health agencies. The plan builds on broader cuts by the Trump administration and Elon Musk's DOGE to reduce the size of the bloated federal government that has plundered taxpayer monies for far too long.

Kennedy plans to cut as many as 10,000 employees from the department, adding to the 10,000 who have already left through voluntary severance offers since President Trump took office. 

Documents reviewed by WSJ indicate that, when combined with voluntary departures, the planned cuts would reduce the department's workforce by 25%—bringing it down to 62,000 federal health employees. The plan would also halve the number of regional offices from 10 to 5. 

WSJ provided more color on the cuts:

As part of the 10,000 workers to be let go, the Trump administration plans to cut: 3,500 full-time employees from the Food and Drug Administration—or about 19% of the agency's workforce 2,400 employees from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—or about 18% of its workforce 1,200 employees from the National Institutes of Health—or about 6% of its workforce 300 employees from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—or about 4% of its workforce.

More broadly, the Trump administration's cuts to the bloated federal government and unelected bureaucracy—often called the 'shadow government'—are beginning to filter through the jobs data (first here) with continuing jobless claims in Washington, D.C, now at their highest level since 2021 (now here).

Jobless claims continue to rise across Virginia, DC, and Maryland - an area also known as "Deep Tristate" - where federal workers live and play with free money from taxpayers... Now the party is over:

In addition to a softening labor market across the Deep Tristate, the D.C. housing market is being flooded with inventory (more MLS data here). 

Kennedy's HHS cuts, set to be announced later today, add to the mounting headwinds for the Deep Tristate, as cracks emerge in both the labor and housing markets. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 12:45

Waste Of The Day: Boeing Lacks "Trained And Experienced" Employees

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Boeing, the engineering company behind the failed mission that left two astronauts stranded in space, received $6.4 billion in contracts from NASA between fiscal years 2021 and 2024, according to federal data reviewed by OpenTheBooks. Only CalTech, which manages NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, received more money.

Key facts: Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft experienced a thruster malfunction during its first manned flight last June. The ship was forced to return to Earth unmanned, leaving Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore stuck at the International Space Station.

NASA’s inspector general later released an audit of Boeing’s Exploration Upper Stage launch system — a project unrelated to Starliner, but one that sheds light on deeper issues within the company.

Open the Books

The audit found “quality control issues” with Boeing’s work attributed to “the lack of a sufficient number of trained and experienced aerospace workers at Boeing.”

The Defense Contract Management Agency issued 71 Corrective Action Requests to Boeing between 2021 and 2023, asking the company to fix its quality control problems. But the company was “nonresponsive in taking corrective actions,” the inspector general wrote.

The audit found the its part of the Artemis IV mission — which is supposed to take us back to the moon — is six years behind schedule and an estimated $1.8 billion over budget. It’s now expected to cost $2.8 billion by the time it is used in 2028.

The inspector general recommended that NASA work with Boeing to create a training program for the company’s employees and give Boeing “financial penalties” for not meeting quality control standards.

Boeing’s work on the launch system is documented online, but the public would have no way of finding it by checking USAspending.gov, which is supposed to catalog all federal contracts. The website lists $2.7 billion sent to Boeing for the Ares I project, which has not existed since 2010.

A NASA spokesperson said the money had been shifted to the space launcher system at the request of Congress.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Summary: The federal government would be wise to investigate companies’ quality control before awarding them billions of dollars worth of contracts, not years after the fact.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 11:45