What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn't?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Most investors spend their time watching the S&P 500. That’s a mistake, because the credit market is the real “tell.” The bond market has been whispering a warning for weeks now, and credit spreads are now shouting it. As of this writing, the CDX Index, a benchmark measure of credit default swap spreads, has climbed to a nine-month high while the S&P 500 sits within 5% of its all-time peak. Over the past 20 years, every time that combination appeared, a bear market followed. Every single time.

That’s a track record worth taking seriously, and credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge risk appetite in financial markets. Such helps investors identify stress points that often precede stock market corrections.

The chart shows the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 market index versus the yield spread between Moody’s Baa corporate bond index (investment grade) and the 10-year US Treasury Bond yield. Rising yield spreads consistently coincide with lower annual returns in the financial markets.

The reason is that credit is the lifeblood of the economy. Businesses borrow to operate, and consumers borrow to spend. As such, when the cost of that borrowing rises, particularly the premium lenders demand to extend credit to riskier borrowers, it signals that the economy is under stress. That “stress” directly affects forward earnings estimates and increases the likelihood of a valuation repricing.

The “Junk to Treasury” spread is the clearest expression of this dynamic. Investors who buy high-yield bonds, the ones with a meaningful chance of default, should demand a premium above the risk-free rate offered by U.S. Treasury bonds. When that premium compresses, it signals that investors are comfortable speculating, willing to reach for yield without demanding adequate compensation for the risk they’re accepting. When the premium expands, the mood has shifted. Lenders are getting nervous. Credit conditions are tightening. And historically, tighter credit conditions have preceded more challenging environments for stocks.

This isn’t a theoretical relationship; it has repeatedly appeared in the data for decades. The bond market (CDX) prices risk continuously across thousands of issuers and maturities. It’s harder to talk up than equities, and it’s not susceptible to the same retail-driven momentum that can keep stock prices elevated long after the fundamental picture has deteriorated.

When credit spreads widen, investors should pay attention.

What The CDX Is Telling Us Now.

The chart from Sentiment Trader below tells the story as clearly as any amount of prose could. The top panel tracks the S&P 500 since 2007. The middle panel shows the CDX Index of credit default swaps. The bottom panel shows where those spreads stand relative to their 189-bar range, essentially a percentile reading of how elevated they are relative to recent history. (Red markers indicate instances where CDX spreads hit 9-month highs while the S&P 500 is within 5% of its high.)

Notice that each red arrow marks a moment when CDX spreads reached a nine-month high while stocks remained near their all-time highs. The 2007 signal preceded the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The 2015 signal preceded a sharp correction and an extended period of volatility. The 2022 signal arrived just before the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign drove the S&P 500 down 25%. And now, in early 2026, the signal has triggered again.

“This has been one of the more important divergences we’ve been tracking recently. CDS is pushing to a 9-month high even with equities near highs, effectively tightening financial conditions. Historically, this setup has been unstable: about half the time it led to sharp drawdowns, while the rest saw either mild pullbacks or continued gains.” – Sentiment Trader

The range-rank reading in the bottom panel is particularly instructive. It shows that current CDX spread levels are not a minor blip, but are registering near the upper end of their recent historical range. That’s not statistical noise, but a market pricing in genuine credit stress. The table below summarizes the four instances over the past two decades where CDX spreads hit nine-month highs while the S&P 500 traded within 5% of its peak. The subsequent market outcomes speak for themselves.

Does this mean the current situation will devolve into a bear market? Not necessarily, but history suggests the risk is elevated enough to warrant investors’ attention. It is also worth noting that the magnitude of the subsequent declines varied considerably, from the catastrophic 2008 to 2009 bear market to the more contained 2015 correction. That is due to the severity of the credit impact on the underlying economy. However, they all shared a period of elevated credit spreads that the equity market initially chose to ignore.

So far, this “time is not different.”

The Counterargument Is Not Convincing

The bulls will argue that CDX spreads are widening from historically tight levels and that the absolute level of stress remains modest by historical standards. That’s technically accurate, as shown, Treasury-to-Junk Bond spreads in early 2026 are not at the panic levels seen in 2008 or 2020. So why worry?

It isn’t the absolute level of the CDX that matters, but the direction of travel and the rate of change. If investors wait for the “spike,” it will likely be too late to act. Sentiment Trader’s nine-month high threshold isn’t about measuring the peak of a crisis; it is a warning of a potential turn. Credit stress doesn’t arrive fully formed. It builds. Each of the prior signals triggered before the real damage was done, precisely because spreads were starting to move, not because they had already maxed out.

There’s also the macro backdrop to consider. The S&P 500 enters this period with valuations near the upper end of its historical range, forward earnings estimates elevated, and sentiment still bullish. As investors, we monitor the high-yield spread closely because it is often one of the earliest signals of a fundamental shift in corporate and economic conditions. In other words, watching spreads provides insights into the health of the corporate sector, which is a major driver of equity performance. When CDX spreads widen, they often lead to lower corporate earnings, economic contraction, and stock market downturns. The reason is that a significant widening of the CDX spreads signal:

• Liquidity Drain: As investors become more risk-averse, they shift capital from corporate bonds to safer assets, such as Treasuries. The flight to safety reduces liquidity in the corporate bond market. Lower liquidity can lead to tighter credit conditions, affecting businesses’ ability to invest and grow and weighing on stock prices.

• Corporate Financial Health: Credit spreads reflect investor views on corporate solvency. A rising spread suggests a growing concern over companies’ ability to service their debt. Particularly if the economy slows or interest rates rise.

• Risk Sentiment Shift: Credit markets are more sensitive to economic shocks than equity markets. When CDX spreads widen, it typically indicates that the fixed-income market is pricing in higher risks. This is often a leading indicator of equity market stress.

• Corporate earnings may decline: Companies with lower credit ratings may struggle to refinance debt at favorable rates, thereby reducing profitability.

• Economic growth is slowing: A widening CDX spread often reflects concerns that the economy is heading for a slowdown, which can lead to reduced consumer spending, lower business investment, and weaker job growth.

• Stock market volatility may rise: As credit conditions tighten, investor risk appetite tends to decline, leading to higher volatility in equity markets.

Listening to credit spreads, particularly the high-yield spread versus Treasuries, is a critical indicator of stock market downturns. Historically, they have been a reliable early warning signal of recessions and bear markets.

Key Catalysts Next Week

The calendar downshifts after two consecutive weeks of high-impact data. No marquee releases are scheduled, but don’t mistake a thin calendar for a quiet tape. The dominant forces will be the market’s ongoing digestion of the March 18 FOMC decision, the updated dot plot, and Powell’s characterization of the stagflation dilemma—all compounded by quarter-end institutional flows that historically amplify moves in both directions.

By Monday, traders will have had a full weekend to digest whether the dots shifted to zero cuts (risk-off repricing in housing, small caps, and high-duration tech) or held at one with dovish language acknowledging labor deterioration (relief bid). A parade of Fed speakers throughout the week will provide color, walking back or reinforcing whatever Powell signaled. Those headlines will move markets more than any scheduled data.

Tuesday’s Q4 Productivity final revision matters more than usual. The prior quarter showed output rising 5.4% while hours worked grew just 0.5%. The unit labor cost component is the inflation signal: falling costs give the Fed room, rising costs tighten the stagflation case. Richmond Fed Manufacturing rounds out the regional factory picture alongside the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys.

Friday’s final UMich Consumer Sentiment is the week’s marquee event. The preliminary reading dropped to 55.5—near post-pandemic lows. The one-year and five-year inflation expectations are what the Fed watches most closely; a spike above 3% would validate the hawkish hold and kill remaining hopes for near-term easing.

Underneath the data, the real story is mechanical: Q1 ends March 31. Pension funds and institutional allocators begin quarter-end rebalancing and window dressing. After the sharp rotation out of tech and into value that defined the first quarter, the question is whether those flows reverse or accelerate. In a thin-catalyst week, flow-driven moves can be outsized.

Don’t mistake repositioning for conviction.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 10:30

Migrant Criminal Beats Deportation Order With Chicken Nugget Defense

In something you might see from the Babylon Bee, an Albanian migrant has secured the right to remain in the United Kingdom by claiming that his children hate "foreign" chicken nuggets, according to the Daily Mail.

Klevis Disha, 39, snuck into the U.K. illegally back in 2001 as a supposed unaccompanied minor. Disha used a fake name and a bogus backstory about being born in the old Yugoslavia. His asylum bid flopped but somehow dragged on, until he snagged indefinite leave to remain in the UK in 2005, the Daily Mail reported.

Fast-forward, Disha hooked up with a girlfriend and popped out a daughter and a son, and then he got nailed in 2017 with £250,000 in dirty money he couldn't explain. The migrant was given a two-year prison sentence and a deportation order - after which Britain's Home Office tried to boot Disha, stripping his citizenship. 

Not So Fast

Disha lawyered up and cried human rights by claiming it would be unduly harsh on his 11-year-old British son, nicknamed C in court documents, if Dad got shipped to Albania. The boy supposedly won't touch the chicken nuggets over there because of textures and a super-picky diet. Ultimately, the judge bought the picky-eater sob story.

Britain's Home Office appealed and a tribunal overturned the ruling. However, after endless hearings dragging into 2026, First-tier Tribunal Judge Linda Veloso ruled in Disha's favor under Article 8 of the Human Rights Act, the Daily Mail said.

The ruling drew scorn from British conservative figures, including Reform UK’s Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf.

"A criminal migrant who entered Britain illegally under a false name and lied in a failed asylum claim has successfully fought his deportation by arguing his son disliked foreign chicken nuggets. This is the country the Tories and Labour have created,” Yusuf wrote on X.

A criminal migrant who entered Britain illegally under a false name and lied in a failed asylum claim has successfully fought his deportation by arguing his son disliked foreign chicken nuggets.

This is the country the Tories and Labour have created. pic.twitter.com/oVTzUytQyq

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) March 19, 2026

If this ruling doesn't prove Britain has become a total clown country, nothing will.

*  *  * GRAB A SHIRT 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 08:45

EU Considers Electricity Tax Cuts, Subsidies Amid Iran War Surge In Energy Costs

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The European Union is weighing electricity tax cuts and targeted subsidies to shield consumers and industry from surging energy costs amid the ongoing Iran war, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on March 19.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech during the European Industry Summit in Antwerp, Belgium, on Feb. 11, 2026. Nicolas Tucat/Getty Images

Speaking after a European Council meeting in Brussels, von der Leyen said electricity prices are driven by energy costs, grid charges, carbon pricing, and taxes.

Electricity taxes and levies in the European Union are on average about 15 percent, she said, adding that the bloc will “propose to mandate lower tax rates on electricity” and ensure that “electricity is taxed less than fossil fuels.”

“In some cases, electricity is taxed much more than gas—partially up to 15 times more. This cannot be,” said von der Leyen, according to a statement.

In the European Union, electricity is primarily taxed through the value-added tax and energy taxation under the Energy Taxation Directive, with additional national levies applied by individual member states.

In the first half of 2025, EU household electricity prices averaged 28.72 euros ($33.20) per 100 kilowatt-hours (kWh), roughly unchanged from the second half of 2024, according to Oct. 29, 2025, Eurostat figures.

Although pre-tax prices declined slightly, the share of taxes and levies rose from 24.7 percent in the second half of 2024 to 27.6 percent in the first months of 2025.

Prices varied widely across the bloc. Germany recorded the highest household rates at 38.35 euros ($44.30) per 100 kWh, followed by Belgium and Denmark, while Hungary, Malta, and Bulgaria had the lowest prices.

Compared to a year earlier, electricity costs surged in Luxembourg, Ireland, and Poland but fell in Slovenia, Finland, and Cyprus.

Supply, Prices

Von der Leyen said that the conflict’s immediate impact on Europe was higher energy prices rather than disruptions to physical supply. The EU remains diversified in its gas sourcing, which has helped shield it from shortages, she said.

Norway was the bloc’s largest gas supplier in 2025, accounting for 31.1 percent of imports, followed by the United States at 25.4 percent, Russia at 13.1 percent, and North Africa at 12.8 percent, according to the Council of the European Union. Smaller shares came from the UK and Azerbaijan.

The EU imported more than 140 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) last year, with the United States supplying nearly 58 percent of that total, according to research group Bruegel. U.S. LNG deliveries have tripled since 2021. France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium are the largest importers within the bloc.

Von der Leyen said energy costs themselves account for about 56 percent of electricity prices on average.

EU member states already have tools to cushion these costs through state aid, she said, and the Commission will further relax rules to allow more support for vulnerable consumers and energy-intensive industries.

Grid charges are another significant component, making up roughly 18 percent of prices.

The EU plans legal changes to boost infrastructure efficiency and potentially lower charges for heavy industry, von der Leyen said.

Carbon Market Under Scrutiny

Carbon pricing under the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) is also being reviewed as leaders seek ways to stabilize power costs without abandoning climate goals.

The system requires companies to purchase permits for each ton of carbon dioxide emitted.

Von der Leyen said that the ETS has helped reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and spurred investment in cleaner energy, but acknowledged that volatility in permit prices has raised concerns among manufacturers.

The Commission will propose measures to modernize the system while preserving its environmental objectives, she said.

EU officials aim to complete the review by July, though member states remain divided on how far reforms should go. Some governments favor expanding free emissions allowances for industry to shield companies from high energy costs.

Italian Industry Minister Adolfo Urso suggested more drastic steps could be necessary if consensus proves elusive. On March 9, he said suspending the ETS could serve as an “emergency response” if reforms cannot be agreed quickly.

Urso said industry estimates indicate that scrapping the system could cut electricity prices by 25 to 30 euros ($29 to $35) per megawatt-hour.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 08:10

Trump Warns Tehran To "Fully Open" Hormuz Or Face 'Obliteration' As Iran-Israel Trade Nuke-Plant Strikes Summary

• Trump threatens to "obliterate" Iran's power-plants if Hormuz is not open and safe within 48 hours

• Natanz nuclear site attacked: Iran says "no nuclear radiation" detected, even as attacks on core sites like Isfahan nuclear facilities signal clear escalation despite earlier Trump signals of maybe "winding down."

• Iran has responded by targeting Israel's Dimona nuclear facility. The Israeli army confirmed "a direct impact of an Iranian missile" on a building in the city that houses a nuclear research facility, AFP reported.

• War expands with furthest ever Iranian missile launch: Iran fires missiles at Diego Garcia in a failed but unprecedented long-range strike.

• US claims"degraded" Iran's threat to traffic through Hormuz: CENTCOM says Iran has lost “significant combat capability” after 8,000+ strikes, and bunker-busting attacks on coastal facilities tied to control of the Strait of Hormuz.

• 23 'allies' sign statement of support for Hormuz traffic safety, signaling their readiness to support secure transit through the Strait,

• Kharg invasion risk rising: US still weighing a high-risk seizure of Kharg Island as more US warships and Marines surge to the region, raising odds of boots-on-the-ground escalation.

Trump Threatens to "Obliterate" Iran's Power Plants If They Don't "Fully Open" Hormuz

After declaring victory "we won" on Friday, President just went 0 to '11' on the rhetoric scale.

In a post on his TruthSocial feed, Trump declared:

"If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!"

Seems pretty clear what the goal is here... and the clock is ticking.

Iran Says It Is Targeting Israel's Dimona Nuclear Facility In Response To Natanz Strike

At least 39 people were injured in Dimona, home to a nuclear facility in southern Israel, following a barrage of missiles launched from Iran, Israeli media reported on Saturday. The attack marks the seventh missile strike on Dimona and its surroundings since midnight local time (2200GMT), Israel's Channel 12 reported. Israeli ambulance services provided medical treatment and evacuated the wounded to a hospital, the outlet added.

The Israeli army confirmed "a direct impact of an Iranian missile" on a building in the city that houses a nuclear research facility, AFP reported.

Dimona sits near one of the most sensitive locations in Israel: the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, long linked to Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons program.

Partial view of the Dimona nuclear power plant in the southern Israeli Negev desert (picture from March, 2014 via AFP)

The International Atomic Energy Agency says it is aware of reports of a strike in Dimona but has received no information of damage to the Negev nuclear research centre from Israel

Iran says it was targeting Dimona, which houses Israel’s main nuclear research center, as a “response” to an earlier strike on the Natanz nuclear enrichment site. The strike on Dimona came hours after a US-Israeli attack targeted Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment complex. Iran condemned the strike as “criminal attacks”, saying it violated international law and nuclear agreements, including the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and warned of wider consequences.

The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed the Natanz attack but reported no rise in radiation levels outside the facility, as it launched an investigation and urged restraint. Iran had previously warned it could target Dimona if Israel continued striking nuclear sites.

A military source told Tasnim News Agency on Saturday that Iran has shifted its strategy, signalling a move beyond a policy of proportional retaliation. The source said Tehran now intends to raise the cost of any attack, warning that future responses will be broader and more damaging. 

"The enemy must have realized by now that if they attack one infrastructure, we will attack several of their infrastructures; if they attack a refinery or gas facility, we will attack several similar facilities and teach them a crushing lesson." The source added: "Iran responds to every mistake of the enemy with surprise and sets their interests on fire."

*  *  * Take this, it's dangerous to go alone (three left)

Natanz Nuclear Site Suffers Direct Attack - No Radiation Leakage 

President Trump's late in the day Friday comments proclaiming "I think we've won" suggested he might be readying the announcement of an offramp or at least de-escalation, but that speculation has proven premature as things definitely escalated overnight. 

For apparently the second time of Operation Epic Fury, Iran's flagship enrichment site at Natanz nuclear facility has come under attack. Iran's nuclear agency confirmed the strike but is keeping details deliberately vague, saying nothing about how it was carried out or what weapons were used. What it did emphasize, however, is that "no nuclear radiation" was released.

via AFP

Natanz - alongside the Isfahan nuclear facilities - sits at the core of Tehran’s nuclear program, long viewed as a prime target in the US-Israel campaign to cripple Iran's ability to produce an atomic bomb - though it remains that even Iran's current wartime leadership is saying it has no intent to produce a nuclear weapon. The AP says Natanz was earlier struck at least once at the opening of the conflict, writing: "The facility, Iran’s main uranium enrichment site, was hit in the first week of the war and several buildings appeared damaged, according to satellite images."

All of this, along with steady the overnight and early morning heavy bombing of Tehran marks a definite escalation despite Trump having floated the idea of "winding down" operations in the late Friday comments.

Iran Vastly Expands Threat Radius: Diego Garcia

Another huge escalation and development: British officials are staying tight-lipped after an attempted Iranian strike on the key Indian Ocean air base on Friday reportedly failed, offering no details on what exactly happened. But this risks pulling in the UK, which has appeared reluctant to directly participate in Trump's operation. Britain has generally condemned "Iran’s reckless attacks."

Just hours after Iran targeted the Diego Garcia base, Britain confirmed US bombers can continue using UK facilities - including the same base - for operations aimed at stopping Iranian attacks on shipping in Hormuz.

"Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in the middle of the Indian Ocean, according to multiple U.S. officials," The Wall Street Journal details. "Neither of the missiles hit the base, but the move marked Iran's first operational use of IRBMs and a significant attempt to reach far beyond the Middle East and threaten US-UK interests."

"One of the missiles failed in flight, and a U.S. warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other, according to two of the people," the report added. "It couldn't be determined if an interception was made, according to one of the officials."

Which is odd, because Araghchi said...

Speaks for itself:

Feb. 25, 2026: “We are not developing long-range missiles… we have limited the range below 2,000 kilometers” — Iran’s FM Araghchi (IRNA).

March 20, 2026: Iran fires missiles at Diego Garcia—ranging 4,000 kilometers (WSJ). ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/F4ncRLSGq3

— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) March 21, 2026

The geographical expanse of the war just got greatly expanded, given Diego Garcia lies about 4,000 kilometers from Iran.

23 'Allies' Signal Support For Secure Transit Through Hormuz

Following the degradation of IRGC forces in the Hormuz area, a coalition of 23 Western and allied nations (UAE, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Australia, and 15 others) issued a joint statement condemning Iran's attacks on commercial shipping, energy infrastructure, and the strait.

The countries signaled their readiness to support secure transit through the Strait, including coordination efforts and preparatory planning. In other words, this is a major diplomatic breakthrough to reopen Hormuz.

23 nations just issued a joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major diplomatic escalation.

∙ Signatories - UAE, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Australia + 15 others condemn Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and civilian energy infrastructure… pic.twitter.com/vPjqlPlMDi

— DA Sails (@da_sails) March 21, 2026

Iran and some regional proxies continue attacking US military sites and interests across the region:

Drone strike triggers massive blaze at US-linked Baghdad airport facility

Iran-backed militia Ashab al-kahf claims responsibility for the attack#israel #iran #war #strikes #drones #attack #hezbollah pic.twitter.com/GZnmWWEv8l

— WION (@WIONews) March 21, 2026

Iran's Threat To Hormuz Traffic "Degraded"

On Saturday morning, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command and the official overseeing Operation Epic Fury, released an update on day 22 of the combat mission and stated:

Iran has lost significant combat capability over the last three weeks. We are taking out thousands of Iranian missiles, advanced attack drones, and all of Iran's Navy, which they use to harass international shipping. Their navy is not sailing. Their tactical fighters aren't flying. They have lost the ability to launch missiles and drones at high rates as seen at the beginning of the conflict.

Cooper then focused on the Hormuz chokepoint, stating that U.S. forces had "destroyed intelligence support sites and missile radar relays" along the critical waterway that the IRGC used to monitor commercial shipping traffic and conduct targeting operations.

"Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in and around the Strait of Hormuz has been degraded as a result. And we will not stop pursuing these targets," Cooper noted.

"Iran's capabilities are declining..." - Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander pic.twitter.com/FC3TgpEGpJ

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 21, 2026

A quick summary of the overnight U.S. military operations to degrade IRGC forces around the Hormuz chokepoint, which could allow tanker traffic to resume in some greater capacity next week as the world, and Asia in particular, faces an unprecedented energy shock:

U.S. forces have destroyed Iranian radar and surveillance nodes used to track shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, struck underground anti-ship missile facilities, and hit multiple coastal military sites, as Cooper assesses that Iran's combat capability has deteriorated over the first three weeks of the war.

Cooper's push to neutralize IRGC forces in the Strait of Hormuz comes as shipping traffic through the waterway remained subdued last week.

Pentagon Touts 'Obvious Progress'; Bombs Underground Facilities

CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper has said in an operational update that Iran "has lost significant combat capability" in the three weeks since the war began, also at a moment of reports that more IRGC leadership has been taken out in airstrikes. He said the US has struck more than 8,000 military targets, including 130 Iranian vessels. "Our progress is obvious," Cooper boasted.

He described that multiple 5,000-pound bombs were dropped on an underground facility on Iran's coastline, part of a strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "We not only took out the facility but also destroyed intelligence support sites and missile radar relays that were used to monitor ship movements," Cooper said.

Domestic fallout amid rising prices at the gas pump looks to grow in US:

Question: I'm a waiter at a local restaurant in Queens, a full time college student who sleeps an average of four hours a night and is still thousands in debt. How is a war in a country half the world away funded by the taxes pulled from my check, helping me in any way? pic.twitter.com/QVgzfSSQZ8

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 21, 2026

Trump is still said to be mulling a very high risk Kharg Island takeover, which to accomplish would most definitely require ground troops. A second deployment of US troops to the region was authorized earlier this week, and three warships and thousands of additional Marines are en route to the Middle East.

One among many problems in even getting to Kharg Island is that hundreds of miles of Iranian coastline must be passed by any ship hoping to reach Kharg, which lies over 300 miles deep and northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.

*  *  * ORDER BY SUNDAY NIGHT

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 08:00

Nigerian Researchers Accidentally Confirm Africa's Low IQ Problem

For many years the political left has dismissed all discussion about links between third world populations and low intelligence as "racism" and "xenophobia".  The well documented fact that low IQ populations are more inclined towards lack of impulse control and a higher crime rate does not matter to progressives.  They assert that such claims are based on "rigged" and "biased" data.  

For example, the data on Somalia's low median IQ (which is 67 and far below the western average of 100) is often criticized as "incomplete" because the data is usually taken from refugees and migrants leaving the country rather than a population sample from within the country.  However, populations in neighboring countries like Djibouti or Ethiopia have nearly identical test results. 

It is simply a fact that IQ is largely genetic (around 80% of testing outcome).  The rest is a matter of varied experiences and environment. This does not mean that a "disadvantaged" childhood results in a lower IQ score.  In fact, high IQ individuals often come from significant struggles and studies on top "high achievers" show that around 75% of them come from difficult backgrounds including extreme poverty. 

The leftist arguments against IQ as a qualifier for immigration are built around feelings rather than facts.  And when it comes to progressives and globalists with an agenda, it is obvious that they prefer third world immigration for the exact reason that these people are habitually impulsive and ready to wreak havoc on western society.  That's the outcome the "Multiculturalists" want.

A recent randomized study by researchers in Nigeria was designed to prove the western conception of sub-Saharan Africa wrong:  They believed that Africa's average IQ was much higher than older data claimed.  But, the ultimate outcome of their testing simply reinforced what everyone else already knows.

  

Only 3% of participants scored above the western average of 100.  The median IQ of all participants was 69.  Over 50% of the people tested scored below 70.  To understand just how low Nigeria's averages are, the US Department of Defense in previous research has determined that an 80 IQ is the lowest score that a recruit can have and still be viable for a job in the military. 

On the other end of the spectrum, a "gifted" IQ is 130 or above; only 2% of the entire human population is in this category.  This is nearly 30 points above the highest scores in the Nigerian study.  

IQ measures cognitive capacity and not necessarily all forms of intelligence.  That said, it is perhaps the best measure we have to accurately predict speed of thought, pattern recognition and general success in higher education (STEM fields most of all).  IQ shifts very little over time and age, and academic improvement will rarely lead to an increase (perhaps 5-10 points in the best case scenarios).    

As noted, lower IQ tends to correlate to a higher chance of criminal activity and impulsive violence.  It is not a factor that can simply be ignored for the sake of liberal virtue.  It is too dangerous to sneer at.

This is not to say that all low IQ people are dangerous criminals or that they can't function in society.  Many certainly can.  The problem is a matter of averages and risk.  Is it worth the risk to invite mass immigration from known low IQ countries in the third world given the increased chances of criminality?  The logical answer is no, of course it's not.  There's absolutely nothing to be gained.    

Ideally, western nations should be looking for the best of the best of any potential immigration source.  This can be measured in a lot of ways, with loyalty and a willingness to integrate being at the top of the list.  That said, IQ should also be considered.  There's no practical excuse to dismiss it, only ideological excuses.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 07:35

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











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The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.