Individual Economists

Energy Secretary Clarifies No Nuclear Explosions 'For Now'

Zero Hedge -

Energy Secretary Clarifies No Nuclear Explosions 'For Now'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday clarified that the US has no plans to conduct nuclear explosions, at least for the time being, comments that came amid confusion over President Trump’s order for the Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons.

"I think the tests we’re talking about right now are system tests," Wright told Fox News. "These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call non-critical explosions."

Nuclear bomb test at the Nevada Proving Grounds in 1951.

Wright added that such tests involve "all the other parts of a nuclear weapon to make sure they deliver the appropriate geometry and they set up the nuclear explosion,” but don’t involve a nuclear detonation. The tests, also known as "subcritical experiments," have been ongoing and would be nothing new for the Energy Department.

It was unclear when Trump first issued the order in a post on Truth Social if he meant the US would restart tests that involve detonating nuclear bombs, something that the US hasn’t done since 1992, or if he meant testing nuclear-capable missiles, something the Pentagon does regularly.

The president said he directed the US War Department to "start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" as other countries, but all nuclear-armed powers except for North Korea, which last detonated a nuclear weapon in 2017, have maintained a moratorium on detonating nuclear bombs since the 1990s. In response to Trump’s post, Russia warned that it would respond if the US broke the moratorium.

Trump could have been referring to Russia’s recent tests of a nuclear-capable missile and a nuclear-capable drone. The last known US test of a nuclear-capable missile was on May 21, when the US Air Force launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from California for a 4,200-mile flight to the Marshall Islands.

If the Energy Department ever did move toward detonating a nuclear bomb, arms control experts say it would take about 36 months to restart such tests.

The explosions would be conducted underground since the US is a party to the 1963 Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits all nuclear test detonations except for those conducted underground.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 15:25

Trump Admin Will Partially Fund November Food Stamps: Filing

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin Will Partially Fund November Food Stamps: Filing

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will fund food stamps for November at reduced levels, Trump administration officials said on Nov. 3.

A woman walks by a sign advertising the acceptance of food stamps, in Miami, Fla., on Oct. 31, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The USDA will spend billions of dollars in contingency funds, but will not use any additional money, administration lawyers said in a court filing.

That means many SNAP recipients will only receive half as much in benefits as they usually do, the lawyers said.

The government met its deadline of 12 p.m. on Monday to give an update on funding the federal food stamp program, known as SNAP, for November.

U.S. District Judge Jack McConnell previously ruled that the USDA had to at least partially fund the November benefits by using contingency money allocated in federal law “as may become necessary to carry out program operations.”

“Because of the lack of appropriations for Fiscal Year 2026 (i.e., ’the shutdown'), use of those contingency funds has now become required because available funding is necessary to carry out the program operations, i.e., to pay citizens their SNAP benefits,” McConnell said in a Nov. 1 order.

Congress allocated $6 billion in contingency funds, but nearly $1 billion has already been spent, administration officials have said. Officials had resisted using the contingency money, saying it was unavailable because there was no more underlying funding for SNAP in place due to the government shutdown that started on Oct. 1. Congress has not yet reached a deal to reopen the government or provide new funding for SNAP.

McConnell ordered officials to fund SNAP from the bench during a hearing on Friday. President Donald Trump later on Friday said that he directed White House lawyers to seek clarification on how the administration could keep funding SNAP.

SNAP payments were suspended on Nov. 1 as that unfolded.

It costs about $9 billion to fund SNAP each month. SNAP pays an average of $187.20 a month to electronic cards for about 42 million people, according to the USDA.

McConnell suggested Saturday that officials should “find the additional funds necessary (beyond the contingency funds) to fully fund the November SNAP payments.” They could draw from a tranche of more than $23 billion that came from tariffs, he said.

If officials choose to fully fund November payments, they must do so by the end of Nov. 3, he said; however, if officials choose not to fully fund the November benefits, they are to use the total remaining contingency funds to make a partial payment by Nov. 5.

In the new filings, officials said that they recently paid $450 million in contingency funds to states for SNAP administrative expenses and $300 million for unrelated grants. They said that they will pay another $450 million for SNAP operations and an additional $150 million for the Nutrition Assistance Program grants.

That leaves $4.6 billion in contingency money for November SNAP benefits, which “will all be obligated to cover 50% of eligible households’ current allotments,” Patrick Penn, a USDA official, said in a declaration to the court.

People whose SNAP applications are verified in November will not receive any money, according to the document.

The USDA is preparing to notify states of the update on Nov. 3, which will prompt states to calculate how much in benefits each household will receive, Penn said.

States will likely have difficulty distributing the reduced SNAP benefits, he said.

“For at least some States, USDA’s understanding is that the system changes States must implement to provide the reduced benefit amounts will take anywhere from a few weeks to up to several months,” he said.

Officials said they opted not to use tariff revenue or additional money because those funds are required for child nutrition efforts and other programs.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 14:40

Sliding Cardboard Box Sales Sets Off Economic Alarm Bells Ahead Of Holiday Shopping Season 

Zero Hedge -

Sliding Cardboard Box Sales Sets Off Economic Alarm Bells Ahead Of Holiday Shopping Season 

Nearly every physical good in the modern economy is transported or stored in a corrugated cardboard box. That's why box shipments act as a reliable real-time economic barometer, especially very useful now, as the government shutdown enters day 33 and key agencies like the BLS have halted official economic data releases, leaving private high-frequency data sets to fill the void.

The latest box shipment data from Bloomberg, citing a report by the Fibre Box Association, shows some of the weakest volumes in years, reflecting waning consumer sentiment and potentially signaling a subdued holiday shopping season. These shipments were at their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2015.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted that box orders remained flat or below normal in October, while consumer sentiment hit a five-month low and manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month. 

The economic picture is cloudy: US manufacturing surveys were mixed in October, while Goldman analysts warned the other day about waning consumer sentiment

"We're not getting a lot of lift, obviously, from the economy," Packaging Corp of America President Thomas Hassfurther warned last month, adding, "And these starts and stops that we've seen consistently go on throughout the year relative to tariffs and a bunch of other things certainly are impacting the business."

Here are dismal earnings from top box makers companies point to a slowing economy: 

  • Smurfit Westrock posted an 8.7% YoY decline in Q3 North American box volumes, sending shares to their lowest since mid-2024.

  • Packaging Corp. of America shares also slid, and International Paper cut its sales outlook for both 2025 and 2027, triggering a nearly 13% stock plunge.

  • International Paper now expects US box shipments to fall 1–1.5% in 2025, reversing earlier forecasts for growth, citing soft consumer sentiment, trade uncertainty, and a sluggish housing market. CEO Andy Silvernail said targets were "obviously" adjusted downward absent a "major pickup" in US and European volumes.

Dismal box shipments and earnings build on an earlier report from Deloitte's holiday sales forecast released in early September, which warned that the upcoming holiday shopping season could see one of the slowest growth rates since the pandemic (read report). 

Meanwhile.

Just a mixed picture. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 14:05

Kimberly-Clark Suffers Biggest Loss Since 'Black Monday' After Unveiling $40 Billion Merger With Tylenol-Maker Kenvue

Zero Hedge -

Kimberly-Clark Suffers Biggest Loss Since 'Black Monday' After Unveiling $40 Billion Merger With Tylenol-Maker Kenvue

Update (1405ET):

Kimberly-Clark shares remain down around 14.5% in late-afternoon trading.  If the losses hold into the close, it would mark the company's steepest one-day drop since October 16, 1987, or just days before the Black Monday crash on October 19, 1987. Earlier, the Kleenex maker unveiled plans to acquire Tylenol producer Kenvue in a $48.7 billion cash-and-stock deal. The announcement sent Kenvue soaring, up 20%. 

Shares of Kimberly-Clark are at their lowest point since late 2019. 

Wall Street analysts are divided on the proposed merger between Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue. Some expect short-term pressure on the stock, while others praised the merger as "strategically transformative"...

Commentary from Wall Street desks (courtsey of Bloomberg):

RBC Capital (Nik Modi)

  • Says the deal is strategically transformative for Kimberly-Clark in the long run as it adds significant positive diversification to its business mix

  • "We believe it will take investors some time to process the long-term implications and would expect KMB shares to come under pressure today and likely trade sideways until investors get more context around recent KVUE regulation/litigation headlines as well as confidence that Kimberly-Clark can turn Kenvue's business around"

Vital Knowledge (Adam Crisafulli)

  • "KVUE brings some iconic brands into the KMB umbrella, and the ~$21/shr purchase price isn't extremely expensive (this only gets KVUE back to where it was trading in Sept.), especially considering ~$2B in synergies, but KMB investors will be wary of the deal given the mounting legal risks facing Tylenol"

  • Says the consumer staples industry has struggled for several quarters due to macro pressures. KVUE has experienced particular strain given company-specific challenges, such as management turnover and scrutiny from the White House

Bloomberg Intelligence (Diana Gomes)

  • Says Kimberly-Clark's cash-and-stock offer for Kenvue reinforces the view that any recovery in Kenvue sales is based on an aggressive step-up in investment, which would act as a further drag on mid-term profit

  • "Another Kenvue organic sales miss in 3Q and lack of overlap in over-the-counter and beauty limits realization of synergies, pegged at 8% to combined operating expenses" 

 *   *   * 

Consumer products company Kimberly-Clark Corporation announced it will acquire Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at nearly $49 billion, marking one of the largest consumer health mergers in history. 

Kimberly-Clark revealed in a press release that the deal values Kenvue at 14.3x its latest twelve months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA. In return, Kenvue shareholders will receive $3.50 in cash and .14625 Kimberly-Clark shares per Kenvue share, for a total of about $ 21.01 per share. The deal is valued at $48.7 billion. 

The deal is expected to close in 2H 2026. Upon completion, Kimberly-Clark shareholders will own 54% of the combined company, while Kenvue shareholders will own 46%. Both boards have unanimously approved the acquisition. JPMorgan Chase is providing committed financing for the deal. 

The merger unites two mega consumer-product giants, creating a global health and wellness powerhouse with top brands, including Kleenex, Huggies, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine, and Band-Aid, that reach consumers worldwide

Here's the justification for the merger:

  • Combines Kimberly-Clark's commercial execution and digital marketing capabilities with Kenvue's science-backed innovation and healthcare professional networks.

  • Expands global footprint across key growth categories in personal care and health.

  • Enhanced R&D and quality investments to accelerate product innovation and address evolving consumer health needs.

  • Kimberly-Clark CEO Mike Hsu will continue leading the merged company, supported by senior executives from both firms.

Based on Kimberly-Clark's current projections, the merger would generate 2025 annual net revenues of about $32 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $7 billion

All sounds great, but this comes at a time when Tylenol faces political scrutiny via the Trump administration, warning mothers to avoid giving their newborns acetaminophen.

Related:

In markets, Kimberly-Clark shares tumbled 15%, while Kenvue shares jumped 20%. 

The question now is whether government regulators will approve the deal, especially given President Trump's recent comments surrounding Tylenol.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 14:05

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus

Financial Armageddon -


Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.






Dump the Dollar before Bank Runs start in America -- Economic Collapse 2020

Financial Armageddon -












We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

Hillary Clinton's Top Secret Files Revealed Here

Financial Armageddon -

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.





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