Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has almost 20 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the October Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.7% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.1% above the bubble peak.
...
People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $448,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.br />
The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.7% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.0% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index increased in October. This was the first increase in the real National index has in 10 months.

It has now been 41 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

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RFK Jr. Stops Requiring Doctors To Report Patient Vaccine Status

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has stopped mandating health care providers report the immunization status of patients.

Kennedy decided to stop requiring doctors to list vaccinations children have received, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) said in a Dec. 30, 2025, letter to state health officials.

Doctors participating in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program were previously required to report how many children received specific vaccines by their second birthday, and other shots by the time they turn 14 years old.

Kennedy also eliminated a requirement that doctors report the immunization status of pregnant women, according to the notice.

“Government bureaucracies should never coerce doctors or families into accepting vaccines or penalize physicians for respecting patient choice. That practice ends now,” Kennedy, head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), of which CMS is a part, said in a post on X. “Under the Trump administration, HHS will protect informed consent, respect religious liberty, and uphold medical freedom.”

Federal law requires that doctors report certain measures while caring for the approximately 78 million people on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and that states convey that data to CMS. The reporting was voluntary when first implemented. It began being mandated in fiscal year 2024.

CMS did not respond to a request for comment. In the letter, the agency noted that Kennedy has authority under the law to make changes to the required measures “to improve and strengthen” the reporting requirements, and that pursuant to that authority, CMS was removing the immunization reporting requirements.

The agency said that providers can choose to voluntarily provide the information moving forward “to allow CMS to maintain a longitudinal dataset while exploring alternative immunization measures.”

It also said that starting in 2026, officials would be exploring the development of new measures that would “capture information about whether parents and families were informed about vaccine choices, vaccine safety and side effects, and alternative vaccine schedules.”

Officials plan to talk with states, providers, and other stakeholders about those measures.

“CMS will also explore how religious exemptions for vaccinations can be accounted for in the data and the subsequent measures,” the letter states.

“CMS does not tie payment to performance on immunization quality measures in Medicaid and CHIP at the federal level. While states have flexibility and discretion to use quality measures in state developed value-based purchasing and payment incentive fee for service or managed care programs, CMS strongly discourages states from using immunization measures in payment arrangements.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 11:00

The post Trump Says Fraud is a Big Problem When Black People Do It: The MN Daycare Fraud Story appeared first on CEPR.

 

 

Earlier this week, I mentioned how some media outlets completely biffed the end of the Howard Stern Show on Siruis XM radio. For too many reasons, they insisted the show was coming to an end. Instead, Sirius renewed Stern’s contract for another three years.

That post led a buddy who is an industry veteran (Fox, Bloomberg, NBC) to share a widely overlooked aspect of The Stern Show: How innovative the technology it developed was.

Many things we take for granted today were created for various incarnations of his E! show:

“A lack of appreciation — a Moore’s Law byproduct, I suppose — that anyone has for how difficult it once was to film three headphone-wearing idiots sitting around EV microphones.

When MSNBC launched Imus in the Morning on TV, it was a feat of broadcast engineering spearheaded by a team of savvy technicians at NBC. People fail to appreciate just how difficult it was back then to account for all the technical limitations of broadcasting live on two different linear platforms for several hours every day.

Some of those same engineers designed the studio for Imus on Fox Business, and it was ahead of its time (Circa 2008)…it wasn’t Apollo 13, but it was certainly innovative.

When Stern did the deal with E! for the late-night cable TV replay, it was a game-changer and probably one of the first tangible examples of Video on Demand profitability from a daily/live program. It’s so easy these days to set up two iPhones, stream it into the cloud, then pull down the footage to edit and push to YouTube — but find me the one influencer/online content guru who recognizes just how much Stern (and Imus) paved the way for them to not have a real job?

I suppose in music, a guitarist of today’s vintage would recognize the contribution of past eras….Hendrix, Clapton, Beck, etc., but with the proliferation of online content, everyone living high off digital ads and millions of views seems to have forgotten who made it all possible…”

It is very easy to take things for granted and not realize where all the wonderful, enabling technology we use originated. The early days in every field were filled with clever people working with limited budgets and cobbled-together-tools to do and create things that had never been done before…

 

 

 

Previously:
Nobody Knows Anything, Howard Stern Edition (December 30, 2025)

 

 

The post Surprising Innovation: The Technology of Live Radio appeared first on The Big Picture.

NPR's CEO Refused Internal Demands To Resign "For The Good Of Public Media" Before Loss Of Funding

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The New York Times reports that the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) called on National Public Radio (NPR) CEO Katherine Maher to resign before all federal funding for both the CPB and NPR was cut off. As in the past, Maher and the NPR board chose their own agendas over the interests of their institution and public radio.

I have long been a critic of Maher since her inexplicable selection by the NPR board to lead the media organization. Despite years of objections to NPR’s overt bias, many critics genuinely wanted NPR to reverse course and adopt more balanced coverage. That is why, when NPR was searching for a new CEO, I encouraged the board to hire a moderate figure without a history of political advocacy or controversy.

Instead, the board selected Katherine Maher, a former Wikipedia CEO widely criticized for her highly partisan and controversial public statements.

She was the personification of advocacy journalism, even declaring that the First Amendment is the “number one challenge” that makes it “tricky” to censor or “modify” content as she would like.

Maher has supported “deplatforming” anyone she deems to be “fascists” and even suggested that she might support “punching Nazis.”

She also declared that “our reverence for the truth might be a distraction [in] getting things done.”

As expected, the bias at NPR only got worse. The leadership even changed a longstanding rule barring journalists from joining political protests.

One editor had had enough. Uri Berliner had watched NPR become an echo chamber for the far left with a virtual purging of all conservatives and Republicans from the newsroom. Berliner noted that NPR’s Washington headquarters has 87 registered Democrats among its editors and zero Republicans.

Maher and NPR remained dismissive of such complaints. Maher attacked the award-winning Berliner for causing an “affront to the individual journalists who work incredibly hard.”  She called his criticism “profoundly disrespectful, hurtful, and demeaning.”

Berliner resigned, after noting how Maher’s “divisive views confirm the very problems at NPR” that he had been pointing out.

In her disastrous appearance before Congress, Maher sat next to PBS CEO Paula A. Kerger and dismissed criticism. What was not disclosed is that PBS agreed with some of us that, if Maher truly wanted to save federal funding and protect NPR, she would resign.

According to the Times, our calls for her resignation were being repeated internally. Instead, the board that made the foolish choice of hiring Maher chose their ideological and personal agendas over the interests of their institution . . . again.

In the meantime, Maher and others were going public, bewailing the threat to journalism and calling on citizens to do everything that they could to protect NPR. The only thing that they were not willing to do was admit their own failure.

We have seen the same pattern in academia.

The fact is that this academic echo chamber may be killing educational institutions, but the intolerance still works to the advantage of faculty who can control publications, speaking opportunities, and advancement with like-minded ideologues.

We have watched the same perverse incentive in the media where outlets are seeing plummeting readers and revenue. Journalism schools and editors now maintain that reporters should reject objectivity and neutrality as touchstones of journalism.

It does not matter that this advocacy journalism is killing the profession. Reporters and editors continue to saw at the limb upon which they sit due to the same advantage for academics. For reporters, converting newsrooms into echo chambers gives them more security, advancement, and opportunities.

Recently, the new Washington Post publisher and CEO William Lewis was brought into the paper to right the ship. He told the staff “let’s not sugarcoat it…We are losing large amounts of money. Your audience has halved in recent years. People are not reading your stuff. Right. I can’t sugarcoat it anymore.”

The response from reporters was to call for owner Jeff Bezos to fire Lewis and others seeking to change the culture. The Post has been eliminating positions and just implemented another round of layoffs to address the budget shortfalls.

In the meantime, trust in the media is at record lows — paralleling the polling on higher education. The result is the rise of new media as people turn to blogs and other sources for their news.

At NPR, the board and Maher have led the organization into a complete and utter meltdown, resulting in the loss of millions in funding and a shrinking audience. However, it does not matter. CPB called on Maher to resign “for the good of public media.” It was not, however, good for her or her board.

Socially and personally, these individuals are praised and promoted as ideological champions on the left. They were even willing to see the death of CPB to remain faithful to the agenda.

So, CPB died, NPR lost all funding, but Maher kept her job… and her agenda.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 10:20

"Then It Is War": Elon Musk Responds After Somali TikToker Threatens His Life

A Somali TikToker (account now defunct), first highlighted by Libs of TikTok, mocked Americans about alleged Somali-linked fraud in Minnesota and pushed dangerous rhetoric suggesting Elon Musk was "about to die." Such statements fit a broader alarming pattern surrounding the Democratic Party's normalization of assassination culture against Musk and President Trump supporters.

"I wouldn't worry too much about him. He [Musk] about to die," TikToker "dowza.z" stated in a short 30-second clip. The account has since been taken down, and it remains unclear whether the TikToker deleted the account or whether the dangerous rhetoric directed at Musk violated the platform's terms of service.

The somali tiktoker who mocked Americans had a meltdown over Elon Musk and appeared to threaten his life:

“I wouldn’t worry too much about him. He about to die.”

. @FBI should definitely look into this https://t.co/37Ok26xstv pic.twitter.com/Ow8NmwFhut

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) January 1, 2026

Musk responded on X to DogeDesigner's reposting of the video, saying, "Then it is war."

Then it is war https://t.co/KdlKDW6f61

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026

Musk's comment comes as the current political climate, characterized by increasingly hostile rhetoric from the Democratic Party, has significantly amplified threats and the spillover of inflammatory left-wing propaganda into real-world security risks. Historical precedent supports this assessment, including the role of dark-money-funded NGOs backing anti-American activist networks, what Peter Schweizer has described as the "protest industrial complex," which coordinated protest activity and other pressure campaigns targeting Musk, Tesla, President Trump, and anything 'America First'. These efforts coincided with radical left groups, including firebombing terror incidents at Tesla showrooms. Taken together, this pattern of threats from the left and their supporters has translated into real-world consequences. Just look at what happened to Charlie Kirk, which reinforces the urgency for Musk to ramp up his political activity this year.

"America is toast if the radical left wins. They will open the floodgates to illegal immigration and fraud. Won't be America anymore," Musk wrote on X.

Musk was quoting a report that he is reportedly going all-in on funding Republicans for the midterm election cycle.

America is toast if the radical left wins.

They will open the floodgates to illegal immigration and fraud.

Won’t be America anymore. https://t.co/9lppGuSyAV

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 1, 2026

This is just day two of the new year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 10:00

US Manfacturing Survey Signals "Wile E Coyote" Scenario

With 'hard' data showing resilience into year-end, 'soft' survey data has cratered (not helped by the government shutdown)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and this morning brings more weakness as S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI (final print for December) dipped to 51.8 - its lowest since July (the only contractionary - sub-50- month of 2025)...

Source: Bloomberg

The latest survey showed a weaker gain in production, amid a renewed contraction in new order books – the first in exactly a year. International sales continued to fall, in part linked to tariffs, which also continued to push up operating expenses at an elevated pace. That said, although remaining historically elevated, both input and output prices rose at their slowest rates for 11 months.

 

“Although manufacturers continued to ramp up production in December, suggesting the goods producing sector will have contributed to further robust economic growth in the fourth quarter, prospects for the start of 2026 are looking less rosy," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Something of a Wiley E Coyote scenario has developed, whereby – just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff– factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders."

The gap between growth of production and the drop in orders is in fact the widest seen since the height of the global financial crisis back in 2008-9:

"Unless demand improves, current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable."

Payroll numbers will also be adversely impacted if production capacity has to be scaled back.

“A key factor causing concern over sales is the extent to which producers are having to pass higher costs on to customers in the form of raised prices, with higher costs continuing to be overwhelmingly blamed on tariffs," says Williamson.

There is some good news:

“Some encouragement comes from input cost inflation moderating in December to the lowest recorded since last January.

But...

However, while this cost trend suggests the tariff impact on inflation peaked back in the summer, costs are still rising month-on-month at an elevated rate to suggest that US firms continue to face higher cost growth than competitors in most other major economies.”

So, choose your own adventure: Hard or Soft data?

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 09:54

Tesla Q4 Deliveries Fall 16% As Investors Pivot Toward Robotaxi, Optimus

Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, below Wall Street’s expectation of roughly 426,000 deliveries, according to CNBC and the company. Production totaled 434,358 vehicles. For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from 2024 and marking the second consecutive annual decline in deliveries.

Shares are now down about 10% from recent highs, despite the stock holding relatively firm given the disappointing numbers so far today.

On December 29, the company publicly released its own analyst delivery consensus for the quarter via a press release on its investor relations website — a significant departure from its normal practice. Tesla typically compiles these estimates but only shares them privately with a select group of analysts and major investors.

The decision to publish the consensus suggested the automaker was trying to manage expectations ahead of what it appeared to anticipate would be a disappointing report.

That internal survey of 20 analysts projected 422,850 deliveries for the quarter, far below the broader public consensus at the time, which ranged from roughly 440,000 to 450,000 vehicles. Even Tesla’s lowered benchmark proved too high.

Fourth-quarter deliveries declined 16% from a year earlier, when Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles. Production fell 5.5% from the 459,445 vehicles the company built in the same period last year.

EV blog electrek wrote in response to the numbers:

"This is pretty much exactly what we expected: a 15% drop year-over-year and a quarter-over-quarter as Tesla loses incentives in the US and its decline in Europe and China continues. Tesla did report of 14.2 GWh of energy storage deployment, a new record. It’s a silverlining, but it won’t be enough to compensate for the significant drop in electric vehicle deliveries.

Tesla will end 2025 with a second consecutive year of decline in revenue and earnings despite being a “leader” in the globally booming EV market. There’s room for concern: unless you 100% believe in Musk’s pivot to AI. Then, you have nothing to worry about."

The company’s deliveries peaked at 1.81 million vehicles in 2023 before its growth began to stall amid intensifying global competition and an aging vehicle lineup.

Tesla’s fourth-quarter breakdown showed 406,585 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles delivered, along with 11,642 deliveries from its other models, for a total of 418,227.

The pressure on Tesla’s core auto business has become especially visible in Europe. While the company does not provide geographic delivery data, figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association show Tesla’s registrations in the region fell 39% in the first 11 months of 2025, even as overall battery-electric vehicle adoption increased. During the same period, Chinese rival BYD’s European registrations surged 240%.

Tesla now faces fierce competition from a growing list of global automakers, including BYD, Xiaomi and Geely in China, Hyundai and Kia in South Korea, and Volkswagen in Europe. At the same time, political controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk have contributed to consumer backlash in both Europe and the United States, further weighing on the brand.

The company’s energy business offered a bright spot. Tesla said it deployed 14.2 gigawatt-hours of battery energy storage products in the fourth quarter, up from a record 12.5 GWh in the prior period. The division supplies large-scale systems to utilities and data centers as well as backup batteries for homes.

Some analysts believe Tesla’s newly introduced lower-priced Model Y standard, launched in October, could help stabilize sales in coming quarters, particularly in emerging markets such as Brazil, Thailand and Vietnam. Still, Tesla enters 2026 facing its most uncertain growth outlook in more than a decade, as investors increasingly weigh Elon Musk’s ambitious long-term vision for robotaxis and humanoid robots against the near-term realities of slowing vehicle demand.

Tesla is scheduled to report its full fourth-quarter financial results on Jan. 28.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 09:45

Could Electricity Prices Become A Structural Inflation Problem

Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Most Americans are paying higher electricity prices, and the pressure is unlikely to ease anytime soon.

According to the Wall Street Journal, electricity prices have risen meaningfully across much of the country since 2022, and the drivers extend well beyond the frequently cited surge in data-center demand.

While electricity prices had historically tracked inflation, that relationship broke down after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent natural gas prices sharply higher.

Since then, utilities have faced rising fuel costs, storm damage from hurricanes and wildfires, and the need to replace aging grid infrastructure.

State-level renewable energy mandates have also driven up costs in regions where wind and solar resources are less efficient, particularly in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Looking ahead, the pressure is set to intensify.

The Energy Department expects average residential electricity prices to rise another 4% in 2026, following a nearly 5% increase this year. Investor-owned utilities are projected to spend roughly $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2029 on transmission, distribution, and generation. That’s double what they spent in the prior decade, and those costs are typically passed through to customers over time.

For consumers, electricity is already the second-largest energy expense after gasoline.

For investors, persistently rising power costs risk becoming a more durable source of inflation than policymakers anticipate.

Even if headline inflation cools, higher utility bills could continue to pressure household budgets, complicate the Fed’s disinflation narrative, and weigh on consumer-driven growth.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 09:35

Magnitude 6.3 Earthquake Strikes Near Mexico City

A powerful magnitude 6.3 earthquake was just detected 13 miles northwest of Ayutla de los Libres, Mexico, or about 220 miles from Mexico City.

"Not sure what the damage is yet, but a pretty big earthquake just hit Acapulco. My building shook for a good 10 seconds here in Mexico City, about 190 miles away," one X user said.

Not sure what the damage is yet, but a pretty big earthquake just hit Acapulco.

My building shook for a good 10 seconds here in Mexico City, about 190 miles away. pic.twitter.com/l9GQAAOCrx

— BowTiedPassport (@BowTiedPassport) January 2, 2026

Footage:

❗️ 6.5 Earthquake in Guerrero, Mexico causes entire building to SWAY

HUNDREDS evacuated from apartment buildings — ITVNews https://t.co/Ga3J8WVqJ3 pic.twitter.com/Yh3KNpTDXW

— RT (@RT_com) January 2, 2026

VIDEO: Moment earthquake hits Mexico https://t.co/jlK0zh27za pic.twitter.com/rHctOn79Jr

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) January 2, 2026

Mexico

Earthquake

Mexico city
Temnlor#earthquake #mexicoxity pic.twitter.com/2TSj1Fy9Gi

— Shikha Panchhi (@ShikhaPanchhi) January 2, 2026

Strong earthquake shakes Mexico- 6.5 in San Marcos, Guerrero - video from center of Mexico City pic.twitter.com/fuHIIAWQqK

— Andalalucha (@Andalalucha) January 2, 2026

A happy new year earthquake in Mexico City.

Just got woken up by the earthquake alarm and a short sharp skake… pic.twitter.com/JeKmy5hVwj

— Ioan Grillo (@ioangrillo) January 2, 2026

Mexican President Sheinbaum's presser was disrupted. 

WATCH: Moment earthquake triggers alarm during Mexican President Sheinbaum’s conference, reporters rushed out pic.twitter.com/3CNd8jweTW

— Rapid Report (@RapidReport2025) January 2, 2026

*Developing…

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 09:21

SBA Suspends 7,000 Minnesota Borrowers Over "Suspected Fraudulent Activity"

Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler announced late Thursday that nearly 7,000 Minnesota borrowers have been suspended over suspected fraud. The move follows a bombshell report last week by citizen journalist Nick Shirley, who detailed alleged large-scale fraud tied to daycare centers operated by Somali-linked networks. The revelations sparked national outrage, with many Americans angered that their taxes are funding what appears to be industrial-scale migrant welfare fraud.

"Over the last week, SBA has reviewed thousands of potentially fraudulent pandemic-era PPP and EIDL loans approved in Minnesota," Loeffler said Thursday on X.

She continued:

Today, our agency took action to suspend 6,900 Minnesota borrowers amid suspected fraudulent activity. In total, these borrowers were approved for 7,900 PPP and EIDL loans worth approximately $400M. These individuals will be banned from all SBA loan programs, including disaster loans, going forward.

We will also refer every case, where appropriate, to federal law enforcement for prosecution and repayment.

After years, the American people will finally begin to see the criminals who stole from law-abiding taxpayers held accountable, and this is just the first state.

Over the last week, SBA has reviewed thousands of potentially fraudulent pandemic-era PPP and EIDL loans approved in Minnesota.

Today, our agency took action to suspend 6,900 Minnesota borrowers amid suspected fraudulent activity. In total, these borrowers were approved for…

— Kelly Loeffler (@SBA_Kelly) January 2, 2026

Early in December, Loeffler announced a full investigation into "the network of Somali organizations and executives" implicated in Covid-era fraud schemes in the corrupt Democratic-run state.

Tim Walz's state has been in the spotlight over allegations of industrial-scale fraud, with US Attorney Joe Thompson recently warning that the total could top $9 billion across 14 Medicaid programs.

The scandal began at nonprofit Feeding Our Future, based in Minnesota, which was accused of stealing from the Federal Child Nutrition Program by falsely claiming to distribute meals during the Covid pandemic.

A Christopher F. Rufo report alleged that some of the welfare fraud was funneled into an overseas terrorist organization...

Shirley's bombshell report of what appeared to be "empty" day care and autism centers run by Somali operators only suggests possible front companies to maximize extraction from taxpayer programs while minimizing detection.

In response, as we coined "The Shirley Effect," citizen journalists have flooded Democratic-run states and cities to search for fraud, and what they have found in just one week is deeply alarming (read here).

The Somali "daycare manager" appears to be wearing $2,500 glasses. https://t.co/MeIx3wDQPu pic.twitter.com/1nFylQJNkL

— Nathan Hansen (@nathanmhansen) December 31, 2025

By late week, the Department of Health and Human Services announced that it had frozen federal child care payments nationwide, citing mounting reports of suspected fraud.

"MN mom" panics after seeing "fraud is bad" in her script pic.twitter.com/EaV2Ptjssh

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) December 31, 2025

The nation has been shocked this week, not just because corporate media tried to downplay and discredit Shirley's report, which led to CBS panicking by late week, but also because average folks, swamped by taxes, overregulation, and elevated costs of living, all leftovers from disastrous "Bidenomics," now see their tax dollars funding the lives of migrants milking the welfare system in what could be one of the largest welfare schemes in years.

Americans are reaching a breaking point.

Fraud fatigue is now a very real thing.

People are not only questioning the system, but are completely done with the system and considering not even paying taxes.

Why should we? It only gets sent to Somali Pirates, and fraudsters and… pic.twitter.com/9kAumrr7Cx

— AmericanPapaBear™ (@AmericaPapaBear) December 31, 2025

Americans are reaching a breaking point. Fraud fatigue is real. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 09:15

Ørsted Sues Trump Administration Over Project Suspension

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

A joint venture of Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind developer, has challenged in court the Trump Administration’s lease suspension order to halt work on the Revolution Wind offshore wind project off the U.S. East Coast. 

Revolution Wind LLC, a 50/50 joint venture between Global Infrastructure Partners’ Skyborn Renewables and Ørsted, filed a supplemental complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, challenging the lease suspension order issued on December 22, 2025 by the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), to be followed by a motion for a preliminary injunction. 

On December 22, the U.S. Department of the Interior paused leases for five offshore wind projects, due to national security concerns, said Secretary of the Interior, Doug Burgum. 

The projects Vineyard Wind 1, Revolution Wind, CVOW – Commercial, Sunrise Wind, and Empire Wind 1 were paused by the U.S. Administration, which threw another curveball to developers of offshore wind projects, many of which are in advanced stage of development. 

Revolution Wind, which secured all required federal and state permits in 2023, following extensive reviews, is currently about 87% complete and has already installed all offshore foundations and 58 of 65 wind turbines. 

Sunrise Wind LLC, a separate project and wholly-owned subsidiary of Ørsted that also received a lease suspension order on December 22, continues to evaluate all options to resolve the matter, including engagement with relevant agencies and stakeholders and considering legal proceedings, the Denmark-based offshore wind giant said on Friday.

Last week, Norway’s Equinor suspended work on the Empire Wind 1 project following the stop-work order issued by the U.S. Administration. 

The Trump Administration has made no secret of its attitude to wind energy, and especially offshore wind. Since President Trump took office, the federal government has clamped down on wind energy projects through stop-work orders and subsidy removals.      

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 08:55

Futures Blast Off On First Day Of 2026 With Europe, Asia At Records

Stocks are set to break a four-day losing streak as markets start the new year with a bang across global markets, boosted by the same drivers that dominated much of 2025.As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.6% higher with Nasdaq 100 contracts rallying 1% outperforming on renewed optimism around artificial intelligence.Nvidia rose 1.6% in premarket trading to lead gains among the Magnificent Seven, which were all green in premarket trading. Trading is likely to remain much lighter than usual, with many market participants not returning to their desks until Monday. As BBG notes, the setup has a familiar feel: Europe is green across the board and on course for a record high, while Asian stocks already hit a record, driven by gains in AI and chipmakers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% while the Aussie dollar is the best G-10 performer, rising 0.3% against the greenback; the euro underperforms and falls 0.3%. Treasuries inch higher, pushing US 10-year yields down 1bp to 4.15%. European yield curves bear steepen. Silver and gold are resuming their march higher, and copper is extending gains as miners in Chile go on strike. Aluminum touched $3,000 a ton for the first time in more than three years on expectations of tighter supply. And the dollar, following its worst year in eight, remains lackluster. US economic calendar includes December final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI at 9:45am. No Fed speakers are scheduled.

In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +1.6%, Tesla +1.3%, Alphabet +1.1%, Amazon +0.9%, Meta +0.6%, Apple +0.5%, Microsoft +0.4%)

• Shares in RH (RH) gain 4.4% and Wayfair (W) advances 2.4% after President Donald Trump delayed tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities.
• ASML ADRs (ASML) gain 4.8% as Aletheia Capital double upgrades the chip equipment maker’s European shares to buy from sell due to investment expansions and capacity upgrades.
• Baidu ADRs (BIDU) jump 11% after the company submitted a proposal to Hong Kong’s exchange to list its artificial-intelligence chip unit Kunlunxin.
• NIO Inc. US-listed shares (NIO) rise 4.7% after the EV-maker reported deliveries for December that showed 33% growth month-over-month.
• Outlook Therapeutics (OTLK) falls 60% after the FDA issued a complete response letter to the ONS-5010/LYTENAVA (bevacizumab-vikg) biologics license application resubmission, indicating that it cannot approve the application in its present form for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration.
• Sable Offshore (SOC) jumps 19% after the company gets a go-ahead to restart a controversial California pipeline.
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) gains 4.3% as Barclays upgrades the power equipment company to overweight from equal-weight, saying its shares currently offer a good entry point following recent volatility.
• China’s BYD met full-year sales targets and likely surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest electric-vehicle maker in 2025. Its shares rallied 3.6% in Hong Kong. 

In other corporate news, First Brands founder Patrick James said he’d likely plead his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination if compelled to answer questions from Jefferies at an upcoming deposition, citing a federal criminal investigation into the bankrupt auto parts supplier.

Friday’s upbeat mood is defying historic trends after the S&P 500 recorded declines on the first trading days of the previous three years. Since 1953, the S&P 500’s median change to kick off a new year has been a 0.3% drop, with gains less than half the time, according to a note by Bespoke Investment Group.

A strong debut in Hong Kong for chip designer Shanghai Biren Technology helped to set the buoyant tone early in the day. Baidu rallied after its AI chip unit confidentially filed for an IPO. Meanwhile, DeepSeek published a paper outlining a more efficient approach to developing AI. Tech and AI were among the dominant themes for stock investors in 2025, helping power the S&P 500 to a third year of double-digit gains. Forecasts signal more of the same for 2026 despite lingering wariness over already stretched valuations and fears that vast amounts of capital expenditure could fail to pay off.

“What we are seeing today is a continuation of the run higher in equities, with AI and tech again at the forefront,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “Traders are still in a buying mood, with many of the bullish themes from 2025 carrying forward into 2026.”

At Barclays, strategists are warning equity markets could get choppy as they enter 2026 at record highs that are “over reliant on AI success.” But the team still expects further gains this year, thanks to resilient corporate earnings and a favorable trade off between growth and monetary policy. 

“The first trading day has been an incredibly poor guide in recent times to how the rest of the year plays out,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Henry Allen. In fact, “2022 saw an all-time high on the first day, before the index fell into a bear market and its worst year since 2008. Whatever happens today, we really shouldn’t overegg the day one moves.”

The strategists noted that several key themes apart from AI will shape markets in 2026, including new developments in US trade policies and specifically a Supreme Court case that will rule on the legality of levies. The Fed will be another major focus, with President Donald Trump expected to name a successor to Jerome Powell early in the year.

“The scope for further gains driven purely by valuation expansion in 2026 may be limited,” wrote Linh Tran, an analyst at XS.com. “Shocks related to interest rates, earnings, or policy could therefore trigger faster and more pronounced corrections than in earlier phases of the cycle.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% and on course for a record close. Technology stocks are leading gains as they did in Asia after a fresh burst of optimism around artificial intelligence. Miners also outperform as metals rise across the board. The FTSE 100 earlier crossed 10,000 for the first time.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• ASML shares gain as much as 3.9% in Amsterdam, the most since late November, as Aletheia Capital double upgrades the chip equipment maker to buy from sell and boosts its price target to a Street high due to investment expansions and capacity upgrades.
• Vestas gains as much as 4%, reaching the highest since June 2024, as JPMorgan says the firm is set to deliver orders above expectations in the fourth quarter, supporting view that fundamentals for the wind industry are improving.
• Munters shares gains as much as 11% after the Swedish industrial ventilation and cooling company received from the US its largest data center technologies order ever.
• Bumech shares jump as much as 26% after a Polish government pledge offering support and job guarantees helped to end a workers’ strike at the machinery firm’s Silesia mine.
• BE Semiconductor shares climb as much as 9.8%, the most since October, following a rally in Asian chipmakers and artificial intelligence-related stocks.
• BAT shares fall as much as 2.7% after its Indian subsidiary ITC dropped in response to the government’s move to sharply raise excise duty on cigarettes.

Asian equities also advanced, led by gains in tech-heavy markets such as Taiwan and South Korea, as most regional markets reopened after a holiday. Hong Kong stocks also moved higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.1%, marking its best start to the year since 2012. Tencent, Samsung Electronics and TSMC were among the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s advance. Equities in South Korea and Hong Kong each climbed more than 2%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained more than 2.8%, posting its best start to a year since 2018. At the start of the year, investors rotated back into familiar leaders in artificial intelligence and technology, pushing the sector’s sub-index to a record high. Markets in Japan, mainland China, New Zealand and Thailand remained closed. Asian markets are edging higher today, but thin liquidity is exaggerating moves as many investors remain on the sidelines, Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone said. 

“We are seeing a continuation of the run higher in equities, with AI and tech again at the forefront,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade Global. “Asian indices delivered the goods in terms of gains in 2025, and there is reason to believe that this momentum will carry forward into the new year.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% following its worst year in eight, while the Aussie dollar is the best G-10 performer, rising 0.3% against the greenback. The euro underperforms and falls 0.3%.

In rates, treasuries inch higher, pushing US 10-year yields down 1bp to 4.15%. US yields are richer by up to 2bp in intermediate sectors, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp on the day. 10-year is near 4.155% after peaking at 4.19% during London morning. European bonds lag Treasuries, with bunds and gilts cheaper by around 3bp and 3.5bp in the 10-year sector

In commodities, spot silver climbs 4% to above $74/oz while gold and most base metals are also green. Aluminum touched $3,000 a ton for the first time in more than three years on expectations of tighter supply. Oil, which suffered its steepest annual loss for five years in 2025, gave back early gains. This weekend, OPEC and its allies are expected to confirm plans to pause supply hikes. Oil traders are also watching developments in Venezuela, Ukraine and Iran. Trump says the US will “rescue” protesters if Iran shoots or kills them, according to a post on Truth Social.

Treasuries hold small gains, leaving yields slightly richer across the curve, after erasing declines that occurred during Asia session, when Australia’s bond market was hit as traders positioned for the possibility the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates to quell inflation. Scheduled events during Friday’s US session include only S&P Global US manufacturing PMI revision.

Bitcoin is on a firmer footing and holds just short of the $90k mark, with Ethereum also posting gains above $3k. 

The US economic calendar includes December final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI at 9:45am. No Fed speakers are scheduled. Tesla is expected to report that it delivered about 440,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down 11% from a year earlier.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.6%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.7%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.16%
• VIX -0.1 points at 14.83
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1204.54
• euro -0.3% at $1.1716
• WTI crude little changed at $57.37/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump threatens Iran over protest crackdown as deadly unrest flares: RTRS
• Threat of California Billionaire Tax Draws Criticism From Ultrawealthy: WSJ
• The Next Class of Senators Won’t Be Able to Dodge the Social Security Crunch: WSJ
• European factory activity ends 2025 in deeper contraction: RTRS
• Tesla Closes Out Brutal Year in Europe With Sales Declines: BBG
• U.S. Slashes Proposed Tariffs on Italian Pasta: WSJ
• Russia says it can prove that Ukraine tried to strike Putin residence: RTRS
• The Condo Market Hasn’t Been This Bad in Over a Decade: WSJ
• Maduro suggests serious talks between Venezuela and US: RTRS
• Venezuelan Exiles Root for U.S. Military Action. Those Left Behind Oppose It: WSJ
• Bezos, Catz, Dell Cashed Out Billions as Top Insider Sellers of 2025: BBG
• Zelenskiy offers chief of staff post to military intelligence boss: RTRS
• Ozempic Users Actually Spend More Dining Out. Smart Restaurants Are Adapting; BBG
• China taxes condoms, contraceptive drugs in bid to spur birth rate: RTRS
• How Kraft Heinz Lost Its Lock on Mac and Cheese—and American Shoppers: WSJ
• China AI chipmaker Biren soars in Hong Kong debut as IPO wave builds: RTRS
• Oil steadies after biggest annual loss since 2020: RTRS

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump signed a New Year’s Eve proclamation titled “AMENDMENTS TO ADJUSTING IMPORTS OF TIMBER, LUMBER, AND THEIR DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS INTO THE UNITED STATES”. This included a delay in tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities for a year, which keeps the tariff levels for the aforementioned goods at 25%, instead of raising it to 30% for upholstered furniture and 50% for kitchen cabinets and vanities, citing ongoing trade talks, according to Associated Press.
• Italy's Foreign Ministry announced on Thursday that the US sharply lowered the proposed duties on several Italian pasta makers from the additional 92% duty proposed in October, with the tariff for La Molisana set to 2.26% and for Garofalo set to 13.98%, while 11 other producers will face tariffs of 9.09%.
• US granted TSMC (2330 TT) an annual licence to import US chipmaking tools for its facilities in China's Nanjing.
• China’s Ministry of Commerce called the EU’s carbon border tax unfair and discriminatory, while it vowed to take countermeasures to defend the country’s interests, according to a statement on Thursday cited by Bloomberg.
• China set quotas on beef imports as it seeks to protect domestic farmers and producers, in a blow to Brazil and other major shippers, including Australia and Argentina, while shipments exceeding the limits will be subject to a 55% duty, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
• India extended tariffs on steel imports for three years with import levies of 11%-12% proposed for some products, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that India imposed anti-dumping duties of USD 60.89-130.66/ton on low-ash met coke imports for six months.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

ASX 200 posted mild gains of 0.2% in quiet trade, with hefty losses in gold miners hampering the gains from Energy and Financials. KOSPI jumped about 2% to a fresh record high, helped by a roughly 6% rise in Samsung Electronics, after reports said customers praised its HBM (high memory bandwidth) chips. Hang Seng surged ~2.6%, with gains led by education stocks, while AI chip designer Shanghai Biren gained in excess of 100% following a HKD 5.58bln Hong Kong IPO, which was said to be heavily oversubscribed.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi said in his annual New Year’s Eve speech that the year 2025 marked the completion of China's 14th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, while he added that they have pressed ahead with enterprise and fortitude, and overcome many difficulties and challenges. Xi added that they met the targets in the Plan and made solid advances on the new journey of Chinese modernisation, as well as noted that economic output has crossed thresholds one after another, and is expected to reach CNY 140tln for the year. Furthermore, he said their economic strength, scientific and technological abilities, defence capabilities, and composite national strength all reached new heights, while he also vowed to reunify China and Taiwan.
• China’s State Council said it studied measures for facilitating cross-border trade, while it will promote green and cross-border e-commerce. Furthermore, it will speed up the review and approval of breakthrough therapeutic drugs, as well as boost investment in water network projects.
• China’s industrial hubs are to lower power prices to support the economic recovery, with the eastern province of Jiangsu, which surrounds Shanghai, to cut rates by 17% vs 2025, while the southern province of Guangdong had recently announced to reduce power prices by 5%.
• Chinese automakers’ market share of Europe’s electric-vehicle market in November reached a record 12.8%, despite the cost of European Union tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
• South Korean President Lee plans to discuss economic ties and peace efforts in the Korean Peninsula during his upcoming summit talks with Chinese President Xi scheduled for early next week.
• Japanese PM Takaichi and US President Trump may hold talks, via telephone on Friday night at earliest, according to Kyodo News citing sources.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) began the session around the unchanged mark before rising to session highs soon after the cash open, without a clear driver. Since, indices have dipped off best levels, paring some of the earlier upside. European sectors hold a positive bias, led by Basic Resources (+1.7%), Technology (+1.8%), and Energy (+1.7%). The former is supported by higher metal prices, with gains in gold and copper. On the downside, Food Beverage & Tobacco (-0.3%), Real Estate (-0.3%) and Construction (-0.1%) lag.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer promised to "defeat the decline and division offered by others" in his new year message and insisted that people would feel a "positive change" in their lives in 2026, according to BBC.
• French President Macron called for unity, strength and hope during his New Year's Eve address, while he pledged to work until the 'last second' of his mandate and guard the 2027 presidential election from foreign interference.

FX

• DXY resides closer to the upper end of a tight 98.14-98.42 in early European hours, following a rather subdued APAC session.
• In terms of today's trade, price action has been relatively muted as volume returns to the market from the holiday period. AUD and NZD outperform amid the broader risk-on sentiment, with the AUD also underpinned by a rebound in gold amid a myriad of geopolitical factors, including US President Trump's warning to Iran this morning that the US is "locked and loaded and ready" to rescue peaceful protesters if Iran opens fire on them. Elsewhere, JPY is flat in a narrow 156.77-157.00 intraday range. Meanwhile, EUR and GBP saw little immediate move from their respective final Manufacturing PMIs.
• 2025 recap: 2025 proved a tough year for the index, which saw its sharpest annual drop in eight years, whilst most majors rallied. The JPY saw gains of under 1% over 2025, in a year rattled by political instability, fiscal woes, BoJ hawkish bias and haven flows. Antipodeans saw the AUD climb nearly 8% over 2025 (best since 2020) and the NZD gained almost 3% to snap a three-year losing streak. The EUR was up 13.5% in 2025 and GBP +7.7% (both their strongest yearly gains since 2017).

Fixed Income

• A softer start for fixed benchmarks.
• Bunds and USTs lower by 20 and a tick, respectively. Specifics are fairly light aside from Final PMIs which, thus far, have not had any real impact. USTs in the red but at the upper-end of a 112-05 to 112-13 band. If a move into the green occurs, resistance factors at 112-25. A similar picture for Bunds, in the red but just off highs in 127.08-49 parameters. Resistance at 127.57 and 127.83.
• For Gilts, a softer open but the benchmark has since climbed off lows and is, as above, towards highs in 90.74-91.33 parameters. 91.37 would take Gilts back to unchanged on the day, thereafter resistance at 91.47.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent trades slightly lower, with prices towards the lower ends of USD 57.08-57.93/bbl and USD 60.51-61.38/bbl, respectively. Focus for the complex lies more on oversupply risks as opposed to any geopolitical risks from the above, with traders also setting sights on this weekend's OPEC+ confab. OPEC+ is expected to reaffirm its production pause through Q1, maintaining the halt to further supply increases, according to Bloomberg sources. The stance reflects concerns over a looming global oversupply backdrop, with crude prices sharply lower over 2025 and forecasters warning of a potential glut in 2026. Delegates indicate little appetite to resume hikes at this stage, according to reports. Recent Saudi–UAE geopolitical tensions have generated headlines, but are widely viewed as noise rather than a threat to OPEC unity, with no expectation that they will spill over into production policy.
• Spot Gold kicked off 2026 on the front foot, with spot prices currently +1.5% intraday towards the upper end of a 4,326.28-4,397.84/oz range at the time of writing. The yellow metal printed a record high at ~USD 4,550/oz on Dec 26th before declining in the subsequent three sessions to a USD 4,274.03/oz trough on 31st Dec, with a near-USD 250/oz drop seen on Dec 29th.
• Geopolitical updates have kept the precious metals complex underpinned, with US President Trump's warning to Iran this morning that the US is "locked and loaded and ready" to rescue peaceful protesters if Iran opens fire on them. Further, tensions flared between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the UAE, primarily due to an open military and diplomatic confrontation in Yemen, with the two nations now actively backing rival factions and engaging in direct hostilities. In terms of Russia-Ukraine, Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are 10% away from a deal to end the war with Russia, but not at any cost, according to The Independent. That being said, Ukrainian authorities in Zaporizhzhia on the morning of January 2nd noted over 700 Russian attacks on the territory of the province.
• North Sea Buzzard oil field recommenced production on 1st January 2026, according to CNOOC.
• Rail line in Australia used by Glencore (GLEN LN) requires a significant repair job.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are 10% away from a deal to end the war with Russia but not ‘at any cost’, according to The Independent. Zelensky also announced that a meeting with national security advisors “focused on peace” will be held on January 3rd, and there will be meeting with the military chiefs of general staff on January 5th where the main issue is security guarantees for Ukraine, while he said there will be a meeting with European leaders and the leaders of the Coalition of the Willing on January 6th.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky denied allegations made by Russia that Ukraine launched a drone attack on one of Russian President Putin's residences last Sunday, and accused Moscow of trying to derail peace talks. Furthermore, Russia recently handed over to the US what it claimed was proof of the attempted strike on Putin’s residence, although it was separately reported that US officials determined that the Russian allegation that Ukraine targeted Putin in a drone strike is false, according to WSJ.
• Ukraine's military said on Thursday that it struck Russia's Ilsky oil refinery and the Almetevskaya oil preparation facility, while Ukraine also announced that a Russian drone attack damaged power infrastructure, according to Reuters.
• Russian-installed governor of Ukraine’s Kherson region said at least 24 were killed and over 50 were injured from a Ukrainian drone strike on a hotel and cafe during New Year celebrations, according to Reuters.
• US envoy Witkoff said on Wednesday that he held a “productive call” with European allies on the next steps in the peace process, while he said they “also spent time on the prosperity package for Ukraine – how to continue defining, refining and advancing these concepts, so Ukraine can be successful, resilient and truly thrive once the war is over”.
• Ukrainian authorities in Zaporizhzhia on January 2nd noted of over 700 Russian attacks on the territory of the province "in the past hours", according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump posted "If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!".
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz urged the IDF to be ready for a potential ‘Oct.7-style’ mass attack on West Bank settlements and called for the reestablishment of northern West Bank military bases which were evacuated as part of a US-backed deal, according to Times of Israel.
• Iran’s defence export agency offered to sell ballistic missiles, drones and other advanced weapons systems to foreign governments in exchange for cryptocurrency and barter, according to FT.
• UAE announced on Tuesday that it was pulling out its remaining forces in Yemen, after Saudi Arabia bombed the Yemeni port city of Mukalla following accusations that two ships from the UAE had delivered weapons and combat vehicles to separatist forces. It was separately reported that Yemen’s government imposed restrictions on flights between Yemen and the UAE to mitigate the ongoing escalation in the country, according to a Saudi source cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics: Others

• US Treasury Department announced new sanctions related to Venezuela, targeting crude oil tankers.
• Russia requested that the US stop pursuing an oil tanker identified as Bella 1, which was headed to Venezuela and was fleeing the US Coast Guard in the Atlantic Ocean, according to The New York Times on Thursday.
• Taiwanese President Lai vowed to defend the nation’s sovereignty in his New Year’s speech days after China fired dozens rockets towards the island and deployed warships and aircraft near Taiwan as part of military drills and a show of force, while he stated that 2026 is a very critical year for Taiwan and that they must stand shoulder to shoulder with democratic countries.
• China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai’s New Year's address was riddled with 'falsehoods and reckless assertions, hostility and malice', while it was also reported that China's Defence Ministry said the PLA's drills are completely justified and necessary.

US Event calendar

• 9:45 am: Dec F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 51.8, prior 51.8

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy new year and hope you all had a relaxing break. We’ll shortly look at what’s coming up in 2026, but as we usually do at the new year, we’ve just released our review looking at how markets fared in 2025. It was a strong year overall thanks to continued economic growth, optimism around AI, and more central bank rate cuts. So that meant global equities, bonds, credit and EM assets all advanced for the most part. However, those headline gains masked huge volatility, particularly in April when the Liberation Day tariff announcements sparked the 5th biggest two-day slump for the S&P 500 since WWII. Meanwhile, Germany’s fiscal stimulus announcement in March saw the biggest daily jump for the 10yr bund yield since German reunification in 1990. See the full review here for more details on the year just gone.

In terms of the last week-and-a-half whilst we’ve been away, it’s been a story of two halves for markets. Just before Christmas, the S&P 500 moved up to record highs on both Dec 23 and Dec 24, aided by some very strong US data. That included the Q3 GDP print, which was delayed because of the government shutdown, and showed the US economy grew at an annualised pace of +4.3% (vs. +3.3% expected). That was the fastest quarterly growth in two years, and the so-called “core GDP” measure of real final sales to private domestic purchasers was up by a robust +3.0% as well. So that led to a lot of optimism about the economy’s momentum into next year, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure for Q4 currently stands at +3.0%.

However, after Christmas the tone became more negative, with the S&P 500 posting four consecutive declines that’s left the index -1.25% beneath its Christmas Eve record. So that took a bit of the shine off the full-year performance, with the index ending the year up +16.4% (and +17.9% in total return terms), falling short of the gains above +20% seen in 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, there’s been some huge volatility in precious metals, with silver prices up +10.30% on Dec 26, marking their biggest daily jump since September 2008 in the week of Lehman Brothers’ collapse. And after the weekend, they then slumped by -9.00% on Dec 29, the biggest loss since 2020, before there were further swings of more than 5% each way on Dec 30 and Dec 31. That caps off a huge surge in precious metals prices over 2025, with both gold and silver experiencing their strongest annual gains since 1979, up +65% and +148% respectively.

This morning in Asia, markets have got 2026 off to a decent start in the places they've reopened. For instance, the KOSPI (+1.87%) is currently on track for a record high, whilst the Hang Seng (+2.18%) has also surged. Moreover, US equity futures are pointing to a strong start as well, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.43%) and the NADAQ 100 (+0.65%) both higher this morning. However, we shouldn’t extrapolate too far, as the first trading day has been an incredibly poor guide in recent times to how the rest of the year plays out. Indeed, 2023-25 each started with a negative session for the S&P 500, before the index then saw a double-digit annual gain. By contrast, 2022 saw an all-time high on the first day, before the index fell into a bear market and its worst year since 2008. So whatever happens today, we really shouldn’t overegg the day one moves.

When it comes to the year ahead, several themes will be high up the agenda for markets in 2026. First, there are still lots of tariff developments yet to come, most notably with the US Supreme Court case, who are set to rule on the legality of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). As a reminder, roughly half of the tariff increases under Trump have used IEEPA authority, and the legal challenges so far have been successful in the lower courts, but were appealed by the Trump administration. So we’re now awaiting the ruling from the Supreme Court. Our US economists think there’s a reasonable possibility the IEEPA powers are struck down, but they also expect that if they are, then the administration would pursue other legal avenues to impose its tariff policies. For instance, the sectoral tariffs under section 232 (e.g. to steel and aluminium) aren’t covered by this court challenge. Or another option could be Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which permits temporary 15% tariffs for 150 days. So there are several options the Trump administration still have.

Aside from the court case, there are also a couple of other 2026 trade deadlines. One is the scheduled review of the USMCA agreement, six years after it first came into force in July 2020. The other is the US-China trade truce, which was extended by a year after the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi back in October. So as it stands, the current US tariff reduction on China only runs until November 10, 2026. Nevertheless, there have been a few tariff reductions in recent weeks, particularly as concerns about affordability have risen up the agenda. So we’ve already seen exemptions for products like coffee and beef, and it was also announced on New Years’ Eve that higher tariffs planned on Jan 1 for upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets were being delayed by a year until Jan 1 2027. Remember as well that the midterm elections are happening in November, so the political incentive to keep inflation down will rise as they approach.

Second, another key theme for 2026 will be the Federal Reserve, and Trump said on Monday that there’d be an announcement on Chair Powell’s replacement in “January sometime”. For reference, Powell’s term as Chair concludes in May, so the new Chair would be in place by the June FOMC decision, and futures are pricing in another 57bps of rate cuts by the December meeting. In terms of who the new Chair will be, the Polymarket odds continue to have NEC Director Kevin Hassett as the frontrunner (42%), followed by former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (33%) and current Governor Christoper Waller (15%). Otherwise, the Supreme Court are also set to hear arguments on January 21 about President Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook from the Fed’s Board of Governors. So it’s a big year ahead for the Fed.

Third, we’ve got lots happening on the fiscal side in 2026, as we’ll see the fiscal impulse from the German stimulus, as well as from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in the United States. All this comes at an interesting time, as 2025 saw periodic market flareups over loose fiscal policy, with sovereign bonds repeatedly seeing large losses before recovering again. That happened in May around the time of the US credit rating downgrade by Moody’s, which pushed the 30yr Treasury yield above 5%. And it was a similar story in Europe too, with a sharp selloff for UK gilts last summer when the government U-turned on welfare cuts, alongside losses for French OATs after PM Bayrou left office and new PM Lecornu resigned after 26 days, before he was reappointed again. So bond markets have been jittery across the board, and last year even saw the biggest jump for Japan’s 10yr yield since 1994 as the BoJ kept hiking rates and the new government under PM Sanae Takaichi announced a further stimulus package.

Fourth, on the political side we have a few elections to look out for. The biggest we know about is probably the US midterm elections, although they’re not until November 3. That will see the full House of Representatives up for election, along with a third of the Senate, and currently on Polymarket, the Democrats are the 81% favourites to retake the House. That would be in keeping with the historic pattern (link here), whereby the incumbent President’s party tend to lose House seats in the midterm votes. Meanwhile in the Senate, the Republicans are 66% favourites on Polymarket to keep control. However, the new Congress doesn’t come into office until January 2027, so in policy terms, that’s more of a story for next year.

Here in the UK, we also have a large set of local elections on May 7, which will be one of the most important midterm electoral tests for the political parties. Although that won’t change the government, PM Starmer’s position has been under increasing pressure, so these elections will be a crucial benchmark for whether he might face a challenge from within the Labour Party. Then in France, the presidential election isn’t until April 2027, but we know that 2026 will be the year that campaigning begins in earnest, with candidates announcing, so we’ll get a much better sense of the state of that race. And over in Japan, a general election isn’t due until 2028, but speculation has been rising about a potential snap election given PM Sanae Takaichi’s approval ratings.

Finally of course, it’s not a single event, but ongoing developments around AI will be critical for the path of markets in 2026. After all, as Jim has written previously, the concentration of the Mag 7 group in US equities means that global markets are incredibly sensitive to their performance. And we shouldn’t forget that AI developments have already led to big reactions in 2025, with the NASDAQ down over -3% on the day that markets reacted to DeepSeek’s new AI model last January. So any loss of momentum or signs that a bubble is bursting risk unwinding the positive wealth effects we’ve seen, as well as the wider surge in capital expenditures that’s helped to support growth.

Looking at the day ahead, there’s not much happening, but data releases include the December manufacturing PMIs from the US and Europe, along with the Euro Area M3 money supply for November.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 08:41

Germany's Economic Collapse: 2025 In Review And What Lies Ahead

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany’s economy has endured a terrible 2025. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has set the course for further decline in the coming year.

If German politicians’ salaries were linked to private sector growth, lawmakers would likely have to take out loans in the deeply recessive year of 2025 and compensate citizens for parliamentary inaction and ideological foolishness.

Although the term diät derives from the Latin dieta, loosely meaning “compensation,” in the context of Germany’s collapsing industry it more accurately reflects the German meaning: deserved frugality and material austerity. Economically, Germany is now facing the end of the illusion of prosperity, which follows the catastrophic policies of the government.

Shrinking Private Sector and Rising State Burden 

After eight months under Chancellor Merz, the record is not just meager—it is pitiful. Assuming a 50% state quota and calculating real GDP growth of 0.2% with net new debt over 4%, the net result for 2025 is a roughly 3.8% contraction of the private sector compared to the previous year.

What is scarcely known in Berlin—likely a form of economic esoterica not taught in party seminars or union courses—is that only the private sector produces the goods and services people actually consume. It is no surprise that heavy regulation and crushing taxes—Germany is surpassed only by Belgium in the OECD in fiscal extraction—strangle private enterprise.

Investment fell roughly 6.5% below long-term averages—a quantum leap in the wrong direction, deeply impacting labor markets, public budgets, and social security. While Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil attempts to mask deficits and exemptions as mere cosmetic fixes, municipalities face a €35 billion shortfall this year.

Crisis Becomes Visible 

At the lowest levels of the state, in cities and towns, the bill for decades of political mismanagement is now arriving first.

The trigger is collapsing business tax revenue, a direct result of a record number of corporate bankruptcies: 24,000 companies will have exited the market in 2025.

The labor market’s seeming stability is misleading. Hundreds of thousands of new public sector jobs and age-related retirements obscure the collapse of the real economy in official statistics. Merz executed the debt brake with the outgoing Bundestag in April, catapulting Germany into a debt spiral with a €500 billion special fund—a clear indication that policymakers knowingly ran the economy into a wall.

Neither the green “art economy” nor the heavily subsidized military sector will adequately fill freed industrial capacity. Core sectors such as chemicals operate at just 70% capacity, 10% below break-even—a stark signal that the creeping productivity erosion and economic depression since 2018 will worsen, regardless of state credit funneled into centrally planned subsidies.

Welfare State and Refusal to Reform 

Berlin has fully submitted to Brussels’ dreadful climate-socialist doctrine and now faces the challenge of hiding its ideological failure. Merz and his team continue the known media-political strategy: as with migration, a continuous camouflage is maintained.

When it comes to deceiving the public, party headquarters show remarkable creativity, leaving no lie too bold. A deportation flight may be staged for optics, while borders remain wide open, family reunification is promoted, and German passports are handed out freely. The aim is to cultivate new voter bases and apply a “divide et impera” strategy to erode cultural and traditional societal cohesion.

Time is bought and the course maintained—just as in climate policy. Pseudo-reforms, such as the ostensible end to the combustion engine phase-out, serve only to give the struggling auto industry an illusion of technological openness while creating a new bureaucratic monster, ultimately fulfilling Brussels’ objective: halting German automotive production.

From the Eurocrats’ perspective, the results are impressive if the goal was deindustrialization. Around 300,000 industrial jobs were cut in the last five years. And when a nation loses its industrial core, much of its value creation disappears with it.

In 2025, German production hovered about 20% below the 2018 peak. An economic and social catastrophe looms, whose consequences seem intellectually incomprehensible to functionaries and eco-centric elites with regard to social cohesion.

Collision with Reality 

If 2025 was already catastrophic, the coming year will likely be a collision with reality for many Germans. Social contributions and taxes must rise sharply to sustain social security amid migration and demographic pressures.

Merz’s government continues the legacy of Angela Merkel and Olaf Scholz: a Brussels-bound green central planner in the guise of the Ludwig-Erhard party, a political scarecrow devoted solely to consolidating power in Brussels.

The German people, particularly the shrinking class of economic achievers in the middle market, will face an accelerated decline after a dreadful 2025—one the government’s media games can no longer conceal.

Merz’s illustrious “Made for Germany” entrepreneur café was a media fake; “Made in Germany” increasingly belongs to the past. The bitter truth: Germany is done

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 08:05

As Lithuania Preps For War, Some Fear They Are Intentionally Stoking It

Via Remix News,

Lithuania is preparing for a possible armed conflict by strengthening bridges near the Belarusian border and building a Baltic defense line, while authorities are trying to avoid causing panic among the population, writes Portfolio, citing a report out of LRT.

Construction and reinforcement work has begun almost simultaneously on several bridges in Lithuania near the Belarusian border.

The Lithuanian Armed Forces confirmed that this is part of a package of fortification measures adopted last July and is related to the construction of the Baltic defense line, which will run along the Russian and Belarusian borders.

According to plans, bridges will have structures that can be rigged with explosives if needed.

In the event of an armed conflict, bridges near the border could be blown up more quickly, which would slow or halt the advance of enemy troops.

The army said the bridges and roads to be reinforced are being selected based on the location of natural obstacles and their strategic importance.

Anti-tank weapons and other terrain obstacles are already being stored at dozens of locations near the border.

Trees are also being planted along major roads for defensive purposes and irrigation ditches are being dug that can be used as trenches and anti-tank barriers.

Populists in the country have been vocal, criticizing such preparations and frequent rhetoric as outright warmongering.

Andrus Merilo, the commander of the Estonian Armed Forces, also spoke of “war hysteria” in October, saying it was seriously counterproductive and could easily cause panic in society.

Lithuanian officials say they are seeking a balance that allows for the presentation of defensive measures but does not incite unnecessary fear.

According to Major Gintautas Ciunis, an employee of the Lithuanian Armed Forces’ strategic communications department, “Russia’s threat remains constant.”

Because of this, conflict preparation should be perceived by society as a regular, long-term activity.

The Lithuanian state, he said, has lived with this threat from Russia for centuries and is expected to live with it in the future.

“That is why constant readiness is essential, and the more intensive this preparation, the greater the chance of effective deterrence,” Ciunis said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 07:20

Is 2026 Shaping Up To Be A Lost Year For Lululemon In America

Lululemon Athletica shares are on track to end the year down roughly 45%, prompting Elliott Investment Management to reportedly build a $1 billion stake earlier this month and set the stage for a turnaround push early next year.

However, UBS analysts note that while Lululemon retains a solid global brand, the North American outlook, particularly in the US, remains materially weak.

A team of UBS analysts led by Jay Sole cites UBS Evidence Lab's latest global athleticwear survey, which suggests Lululemon's Americas growth rate will "remain lackluster" in 2026.

"The survey shows the Lululemon brand name remains very strong, but customer engagement metrics in the US are weak," Sole told clients on Wednesday.

Sole adds that any turnaround at Lululemon would likely require both new leadership and a multi-quarter restructuring effort to repair the struggling US business, a process that could take at least a year to implement:

LULU is likely to name a new CEO over the next few months. This decision likely has a bigger near-term impact on the stock than anything else. However, no matter who the new CEO is, we think LULU will have to invest at least a year’s worth of time and effort to return its US business to sustainably positive sales growth.

Why UBS expects Lululemon to struggle in North America next year:

• A relatively high share of US consumers report their overall impression of Lululemon has worsened over the past year. Roughly 10% of US respondents said this, the highest negative reading among all brands surveyed.

• US aided brand awareness declined year over year, falling to 41% from 45% last year and 42% in 2023. UBS views weakening aided awareness as a sign the brand is generating less consumer buzz, which could translate into lower store and website traffic and ultimately weaker sales.

• Several key brand perception metrics weakened year over year, including views that Lululemon is good for everyday casual wear, suitable for sports or exercise, fashionable or cool, and prestigious.

• US purchase intentions remain sluggish. While the score rose 6% year over year, it is flat on a two-year basis, indicating little momentum.

To read the full note, ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can find it in the usual place.

Meanwhile, activist veteran Paul Singer appears to view the drawdown on the stock as an opportunity.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that Singer built a roughly $1 billion position, a move that suggests corporate restructuring pressure could intensify heading into early 2026.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 06:55

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











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The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.