Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

A brief excerpt:

The NY Fed released the Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are a few charts from the report.

The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

There is much more in the article.

Trump Drafting Executive Order On Election Integrity After Alleging Ballot Fraud In California

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said an executive order is being drafted to strengthen U.S. elections and curb mail-in ballot fraud, after President Donald Trump alleged that California’s mail voting system “is rigged” and parts of it are under “legal and criminal review.”

“The White House is working on an executive order to strengthen our elections in this country and to ensure that there cannot be blatant fraud, as we’ve seen in California with their universal mail-in voting system,” Leavitt told reporters during a Nov. 4 briefing. “It’s absolutely true that ... there is fraud in California’s elections. It’s just a fact.”

Leavitt’s comments followed a Truth Social post by Trump earlier in the day, in which he renewed his criticism of mail-in voting and suggested criminal investigations were underway.

“The Unconstitutional Redistricting Vote in California is a GIANT SCAM in that the entire process, in particular the Voting itself, is RIGGED,” Trump wrote.

“All ‘Mail-In’ Ballots, where the Republicans in that State are ‘Shut Out,’ is under very serious legal and criminal review.”

When asked what evidence the White House had to support those claims and which authorities were conducting the purported reviews, Leavitt said she would provide evidence of fraud to reporters after the briefing, alleging that “fraudulent ballots are being mailed in the names of other people, in the names of illegal aliens who shouldn’t be voting in American elections.”

The White House has not disclosed details of the upcoming executive order. The president has repeatedly promised sweeping changes to election procedures, including a nationwide ban on universal mail-in voting and electronic voting machines.

Redistricting Vote Sparks Clash

On Nov. 4, California voters approved Proposition 50, a ballot measure championed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and state Democrats that allows lawmakers to temporarily bypass the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission to redraw congressional maps.

Supporters said the measure was a needed counterweight to Republican-led redistricting in states such as Texas, while critics—including Trump—characterized it as an unconstitutional power grab.

Newsom described the referendum as “California’s chance to save democracy,” saying it would help Democrats regain momentum ahead of next year’s elections.

“At the end of the day, it’s about the future of our country,” he told supporters at a Los Angeles rally on Nov. 1.

Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland told The Epoch Times that the measure could ultimately backfire on Democrats.

“If Prop 50 passes, it becomes a rally cry nationally,” he said. “The biggest winner tonight will be [President] Donald Trump.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a "Yes on Prop 50" volunteer event at the LA Convention Center in Los Angeles on Nov. 1, 2025. Jill Connelly/Getty Images

After Trump posted on Truth Social that the redistricting vote was unconstitutional and that some of California’s mail-in ballots are under criminal review, Newsom responded by dismissing the comments as the “ramblings” of someone who “knows he’s about to LOSE.”

Trump has long criticized mail-in voting, calling it a source of widespread fraud. In August, he told reporters that his legal team was drafting an executive order to ban mail-in voting nationwide and to phase out electronic voting machines in favor of paper ballots.

Constitutional experts have said that any such move would face immediate legal challenges. Under the U.S. Constitution, states control the “times, places, and manner” of elections, though Congress retains the power to alter those regulations.

“The president has no power to dictate to states how they conduct national elections,” Rick Pildes, a political science professor at New York University, told The Epoch Times in an earlier interview. He said such changes would likely require congressional approval.

Trump’s forthcoming order would mark the latest in a series of White House efforts to tighten federal election rules.

In March, the president signed an executive order directing agencies to update election security protocols, voter registration processes, and mail-ballot deadlines.

While portions of that order were blocked by a federal judge who found the action exceeded presidential authority, a directive tightening mail-in ballot deadlines was allowed to stand.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 11:20

Consumer Squeeze Hits Home Renovation Spending As Leading Deck-Maker Shares Collapse

Shares of Trex Company, best known for its wood-alternative composite decking, plunged the most since the Dot Com bust in premarket trading after the company's fourth-quarter net sales forecast came in below Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Analysts warned that soft consumer spending trends and a deteriorating home-improvement backdrop are weighing on demand. 

Trex reported adjusted EPS of $.51 (vs. $.57 est.) and net sales of $285 million, up 22% year-over-year but millions below the $302 million consensus. EBITDA increased 27% to $86.4 million, missing the $96.8 million estimate. 

Analysts focused on weaker outlooks. For Q4, Trex expects net sales of $140 million to $150 million, well below the $199 million consensus. For the full year, the company now sees EBITDA margins of 28% to 28.5%, down from prior guidance of above 31% and the 31% analyst estimate, signaling further margin compression.

"Given the lackluster outlook for consumer spending and 'marketing war' that has popped up in the industry, we lack confidence in our estimates and valuation," William Blair analyst Ryan Merkel wrote in a note to clients. He downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform. 

Merkel noted, "Our take is that Trex is protecting its share by matching marketing spending and channel incentives that competitors are offering in a soft market. This is a major business model reset for a category that was viewed as having secular growth and rational competitors."

Truist analyst Keith Hughes warned, "The stock will take a substantial hit after a weak year already and the potential for M&A around TREX is now growing.  We remain Buy on the long term secular growth story."

The earnings showed "evidence of cracks in near-term fundamentals and a preview of competitive share dynamics to come," Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley wrote. He said there's a significant risk that "real share loss has not even begun" after James Hardie's acquisition of Azek. 

Trex shares plunged to early-2020 lows amid the dismal outlook.

Shares are down 32% in premarket trading, the most since the Dot-Com bust in late 2000. 

Trex is often viewed as a home-improvement indicator within the discretionary spending segment tied to outdoor living and remodeling, given how expensive its composite decking boards can be, sometimes upwards of $140 for a 16-foot board, compared with about $18 for a treated lumber board of the same length.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 11:00

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $197 billion (1%) in Q3 2025, to $18.59 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

“Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.” Mortgage balances grew by $137 billion in the third quarter and totaled $13.07 trillion at the end of September 2025. Credit card balances rose by $24 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.23 trillion. Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66 trillion. Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $11 billion to $422 billion. Student loan balances rose by $15 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion. In total, non-housing balances rose by $49 billion, a 1.0% increase from Q2 2025.

The pace of mortgage originations increased with $512 billion newly originated in Q3 2025. There was $184 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the third quarter, a small dip from the $188 billion observed in Q2 2025. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $94 billion, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter. Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $8 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in Q3 2025, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency were mixed with credit card debt and student loans increasing, while all other debt types saw decreases. Transitions into serious delinquency mostly increased across debt types, although mortgages saw a slight decrease.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $197 billion in the third quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025Q2. Balances now stand at $18.59 trillion and have increased by $4.44 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate increased in Q3.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the third quarter of 2025. The share of outstanding debt balances in some stage of delinquency was largely flat in 2025Q3; 4.5% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. 

There is much more in the report.

"Mad Max For Years?" Bill Holter Warns There's More Risk In The System Now Than Ever

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holt (aka Mr. Gold) said a month ago that rising “gold and silver prices were sniffing out risk.”  

Looks like the Federal Reserve is also smelling some risk.  

It recently, quietly flooded the banks with $125 billion injection in just five days.  The cash went into the repo market.  Mr. Gold says, “This is just a tremor, the cash going into the repo market."

"  Understand that there are more derivatives outstanding, and there is more debt outstanding.  Whatever metric you want to use to measure it, there is more risk in the system now than any time ever. 

Go back to 2008 and 2009, and we were very close to a complete meltdown with markets not opening up on Monday morning. 

They started handwringing over $700 billion in TARP, while behind the scenes, the Federal Reserve created $16 trillion or $17 trillion and lent it all over the world. 

It didn’t right the ship, but it did stop it from sinking.  I ask you, has anything changed or has anything been fixed? 

Did they address any of those problems we had back in 2008 and 2009? 

The answer is no. 

In fact, they double, triple and quadrupled down on those same policies.”

Mr. Gold goes on to say, “They are trying to fix a debt problem with liquidity.  The liquidity is like a Novocaine shot..."  

"It makes things feel better temporarily, but it does not fix the problem.  The problem is there is too much debt outstanding by any metric. 

Whether you look at debt to cash flow or debt to equity, a perfect example is the US dollar.  The United States is now 130% debt to GDP, and, oh, by the way, the dollar is still the world reserve currency.  In 1982 when I graduated from college, if debt got to 100% of GDP, it was considered a banana republic. 

That being said, you could say the entire world is a banana republic because they use as a reserve currency something that is issued by a bankrupt entity.  It is insolvent because look at the Fed’s balance sheet. 

The Fed has negative equity now.  They lost so much on bonds they bought in 2008 and 2009, and interest rates have gone up.  That means their portfolio has dropped. . .. two or three years back, they were operating with only $65 billion in equity. 

They had trillions of dollars, and if you want to count derivatives, they had quadrillions of dollars (of debt) dancing on the head of a $65 billion pin.”

Mr. Gold is not worried about the most recent correction with gold and silver prices.  Holter says:

“Watch out for a possible ‘failure to deliver’ of physical gold and silver at the end of the year...

Failure to deliver physical metal will end the fraud, and it will be game over for the metal contracts.  More and more people are now standing for delivery.”

With the government shutdown and SNAP food benefits being cut off, where does this end?   Mr. Gold says,

“You’ve got people on line saying if they cut off the food that they are going to go out and steal to feed their families...

Mad Max, this is where this ends.  Is it going to be Mad Max for years?  It might be two weeks or two months. 

God forbid it goes on for six months because the skills are gone with hunting and farming. 

What people know how to do is get in their car and go to the corner store.”

In closing, Holter says, “Get your capital out of the system.” 

Buying physical gold and silver is getting cash out of the system and putting it under your direct control.

There is much more in the 45-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold for 11.4.25.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 10:45

WTI Holds Losses After Big Crude Build, Record US Production

Oil prices weakened for a second session early on Wednesday as a report showed an unexpected surge in U.S. oil inventories, keeping demand and over-supply concerns top of mind for traders.

"API data indicated the largest US crude inventory build in more than three months, with stockpiles rising by 6.5 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the EIA later today, it would mark the biggest gain since late July," Saxo Bank noted.

The unexpected rise in stocks comes amid persistent warnings the oil market is oversupplied as rising production from OPEC+ and Western Hemisphere producers climbs above demand growth. The concerns were amplified by OPEC+'s weekend decision to hike supply for a third month by 137,000 barrels per day in December, following on the September end to the return of 2.2-million bpd of production cuts.

The question now, is will the official data confirm API's worrying build.

API

• Crude +6.5mm

• Cushing +400k

• Gasoline -5.7mm

• Distillates -2.5mm

DOE

• Crude +5.2mm - biggest build since July

• Cushing +300k

• Gasoline -4.7mm

• Distillates -643k

The official data confirmed API's large crude build (biggest weekly addition since July) but we are also seeing product inventory drawdowns for a fifth straight week

Source: Bloomberg

There was a fairly chunky lurch in the adjustment number last week.

While the outright value from both weeks isn’t massive, there was a positive swing of 874,000 barrels a day (from -481k to +393k). 

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production rose once again to a new record high of 13.65mm b/d despite recent rig count stability...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil price are holding at the lows of the day after the official data with WTI finding support at $60 for now...

Finally, as MT Newswires reports, rising output comes as the global economy slows with U.S. tariff policies hampering global trade and cutting into demand. Economic data this week showed slowing manufacturing activity in the United States, China and Japan, pushing investors away from over-heated risk assets.

"Japan's manufacturing sector shrank at its fastest pace in 19 months. Tepid new orders in the US led to the eighth consecutive monthly contraction in factory activity. A private survey reached the same conclusion in China, where expansion slowed last month, while manufacturers across other Asian economies are clearly feeling the impact of US tariffs in the form of declining orders," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Still, concerns over Russian supply is offering support for the energy complex, as Ukraine continues its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Reports said Ukrainian drones on Tuesday struck at a Lukoil oil refinery in Russia, the second attack on Russian refineries this week, while Russia suspended exports from its main Black Sea oil export port following a Ukrainian attack.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 10:35

Yields Rise, Rate-Cut Odds Slide As ISM Services Survey Signal Inflation Fears

After yesterday's mixed picture on Manufacturing (PMI up, ISM down), analysts expected both Services surveys this morning to show an upward bounce.

• S&P Global's Services PMI disappointed but did rise from September's 54.2 to 54.8 (but that was less than expected and less than the 55.2 preliminary print)

• ISM's Services PMI beat expectations, rising from 50.0 to 52.4, well above the 50.8 expectations.

And this is happening amid a rise in 'hard' data (though admittedly based on housing and marginal labor data given the vacuum since the shutdown)

Source: Bloomberg

Across the PMI surveys, only ISM Manufacturing saw a decline MoM in October...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Prices surged to their highest in three years, new orders expanded at their fastest pace in a year and employment improved (though remained below 50)...

Source: Bloomberg

“October’s final PMI data add to signs that the US economy has entered the fourth quarter with strong momentum," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Growth in the vast services economy has picked up speed to accompany an improved performance in the manufacturing sector.

In total, business activity is growing at a rate commensurate with GDP rising at an annualized pace of around 2.5% after a similarly solid expansion was signalled for the third quarter."

While growth is being driven principally by the financial services and tech sectors, Williamson says the survey is also picking up signs of improving demand from consumers.

However, the surge in prices paid is having some consequences

“However, there are signs that new business is coming at the cost of service providers having to soak up continued high input price growth to remain competitive.

Customers are often pushing back on price rises, especially in consumer-facing markets.

While good news in terms of inflation, this lack of pricing power hints at weak underlying demand and lower profits. "

Business expectations about the year ahead have also fallen sharply and are now running at one of the lowest levels seen over the past three years, as Williamson notes "signs of spending caution from customers is accompanied by heightened political and economic uncertainty."

However, Williamson points out that lower interest rates have helped offset some of the drags to business confidence, for which the October FOMC rate cut will have likely helped further.

Treasury yields are on the rise (likely driven by the inflation jump) and rate-cut odds are lower...

Hopefully we will get some 'hard' data reality (Payrolls and CPI) if the government reopens before the next FOMC meeting but for now we would say, this should not be weighted enough to warrant The Fed veering from its easing path.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 10:05

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.4%, up from 50.0% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.2%, up from 47.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.4% October 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector returned to expansion in October, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In October, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.4 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than the 52.6 percent recorded in September and 0.7 percentage point below its 12-month average of 51.5 percent. This is the 11th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 70 percent in October, its first time at or above that threshold since a reading of 70.7 percent in October 2022. The October figure was a 0.6-percentage point increase from September’s reading of 69.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 11 straight months.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 5th consecutive month, and prices paid was high.

The post New York Times Pushes Blatant Lies About Neoliberalism appeared first on CEPR.

Britain "Doomed" Under Labour As Wealthy Scramble To "Get The Hell Out Of London", Ryanair Boss Warns

Authored by John-Paul Ford Rojas via ThisIsMoney.co.uk,

The UK is doomed under Labour, the boss of Ryanair has warned as he claimed wealthy people were scrambling to ‘get the hell out of London’ before being hit by a Budget tax raid.

Michael O’Leary said he had no faith in the Chancellor’s ability to restore growth and branded her tax policies ‘dumb’.

The comments came amid reports that Rachel Reeves is planning to target the wealthy with a mansion tax in the Budget later this month.

He told the Guardian: ‘The UK economy under the current leadership is doomed.'

‘The UK badly needs growth, but the way to deliver growth is through selective tax cuts… you are not going to grow the UK economy by taxing wealth or taxing air travel.’

Mr O’Leary’s comments add to a chorus of criticism of Labour from UK business leaders – following warnings about tax from the likes of Marks & Spencer boss Stuart Machin and Asda’s Allan Leighton.

Michael O'Leary branded Labour's policies 'dumb'

The Ryanair boss said: ‘I hold very little faith in Rachel Reeves or the current economic strategy of the Labour government.'

‘Rich people are fleeing… as they are trying to find low-fare flights to get the hell out of London before Rachel Reeves taxes their mansions, their income and inheritance.’

Mr O'Leary has also taken umbrage at Labour’s decision to hike air passenger duty – a tax on flights – and said further increases in the Budget would prompt the carrier to shift capacity to other countries with lower tax burdens such as Sweden or Italy.

He told Bloomberg: ‘She hasn’t a rashers how to deliver growth. She puts up employment taxes, puts up APD.’

Mr O’Leary said Ryanair had written to the Treasury describing the increase in the air tax as ‘the dumbest idea even you lot have come up with’.

He said that a further increase at the Budget would mean 10 per cent of Ryanair’s capacity, or about five million seats, is moved to lower tax countries.

‘Eventually even a dumb Labour government will work out that for an island on the periphery of Europe, the way to grow – and the way to increase tax revenue – is to get tourists onto the island first and then tax them,' he added.

‘The way to grow is not by increasing entry taxes, which is what APD is.’

Mr O’Leary made the comments as the airline revealed a surge in half-year profit amid a hike in fares. It was also helped by aircraft deliveries helping it fly more passengers.

The low-cost airline reported a pre-tax profit of £2.6 billion for the six months to the end of September, 40 per cent higher than the same period last year.

It flew 119 million passengers, 3 per cent more than last year

Average airfares rose by 13 per cent year on year to 58 euros (£50.90), Ryanair revealed, having spiked during the Easter period.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 09:00

Yields Spike After Treasury Refunding Unexpectedly Warns Bessent Considering "Increases To Future Auction Sizes"

Superficially, there were no surprises in the quantitative aspects of this morning's Treasury refunding announcement: as previewed earlier, the Treasury just announced a total quarterly refunding size of $125 billion, just as expected, and furthermore indicated it’s not looking to boost sales of notes and bonds "for at least the next several quarters", in a decision that will see the government increasingly rely on bills to fund the budget deficit. However, the big surprise was the announcement that "looking ahead, Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on evaluating trends in structural demand and assessing potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles." Translation: no bond auction increases for a few months, and then we blast off, and the bond market reacted appropriately sending 10Y yields to session highs. 

Here are the details.

In  its refunding statement Wednesday, the department said it anticipated keeping auction sizes unchanged for nominal notes and bonds “for at least the next several quarters.” That form language, which has been used since early last year, reflects the higher cost of issuing longer-dated securities compared with bills, which mature in up to a year.

Next week’s auctions of 3-, 10- and 30-year maturities will total $125 billion, the same amount going back to May last year. Dealers had widely expected the move, and most don’t see an increase in issuance of notes and bonds until mid-2026 or later to help finance federal deficits, which have declined slightly in part because of tariff revenue.

For next week’s refunding auctions, they will be made up of:

• $58 billion of 3-year notes on Nov. 10
• $42 billion of 10-year notes on Nov. 12
• $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Nov. 13

The balance of Treasury financing requirements over the quarter will be met with regular weekly bill auctions, cash management bills (CMBs), and monthly note, bond, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and 2-year Floating Rate Note (FRN) auctions.

The Treasury issuance forecast table below, which shows actual auction sizes for the August to October 2025 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the November 2025 to January 2026 quarter, is identical to the preview we posted earlier (see below), confirming no surprises.

As an aside, the Fed's rate cuts have pulled down yields on the shortest-dated US debt, making it more attractive for the Treasury to sell those maturities. While 10-year yields are currently a bit above 4%, bills due in 12 months are around 3.5%. That's why the Refunding statement said that while it "expects to maintain the offering sizes of benchmark bills into late-November" and to "implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during the month of December", thereafter, "by the middle of January 2026, Treasury anticipates increasing bill auction sizes based on expected fiscal outflows."

The share of bills compared with overall outstanding debt is set to rise unless the Treasury boosts longer-dated issuance. The ratio is on course to climb past 26% by the end of 2027, Citigroup estimates.

Last year, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee — a panel of dealers, investors and other market participants — recommended it average around 20% over time. As of September, the ratio was over 21% and will keep rising for the foreseeable future. 

But it's not just Bill sizes that will spike: here is the sentence that sent TSY yields spiking by 3 bps so far:

“Looking ahead, Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on evaluating trends in structural demand and assessing potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles."

While dealers had expected the Treasury start laying the groundwork for an increase in sales of longer-dated obligations at some poin - given that the government continues to run historically large fiscal deficits, boosting the overall debt load - today's announcement by the Treasury came as a surprise. It shouldn't have: as securities sold during the record deficits of the pandemic era, in 2020 and 2021, come due in coming years, Treasury note sales would only suffice to repay what’s maturing, meanwhile the US deficit remains at $2 trillion and rising.

Some Wall Street firms have pushed off forecasts for when they expect boosts to longer-dated issuance, given how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled he prefers not to lock the government into higher borrowing costs at a time when bills are cheaper. And yet, that is precisely what he now intends to do in early 2026 based on today's announcement. 

This led to lots of confusion: in April, JPMorgan rates strategists expected officials to boost coupon sizes by this refunding announcement. But in the bank’s latest projection for when that would occur, ahead of Wednesday’s statement, that date had shifted to November 2026. Now JPM will have to adjust again. 

In a separate note, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee said current projections could "warrant increases in coupon issuance in FY 2027" to wit: 

In terms of issuance, the Committee recommended keeping nominal coupon sizes as well as TIPS issuance unchanged. The Committee discussed potential changes to coupon issuance in the future, and the timing thereof. Given the uncertainty of potential financing needs, the Committee was mixed on how Treasury should approach adjustments to its current forward guidance. The Committee believes that current projections could warrant increases in coupon issuance in FY2027

The committee in a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the current issuance mix appears to be near the “efficient frontier” while the Treasury’s move toward a higher share of T-bills in recent years somewhat reduced expected costs but also increased volatility, based on the committee’s refreshed Optimal Debt Model, one of many tools the Department uses to inform issuance decisions.

“While the current mix seems appropriate in a ‘Productivity Boom’ scenario, the other scenarios highlighted additional risks for Treasury,” TBAC wrote. “The Model suggests that a decrease in bill issuance, increase in belly issuance, and a decrease in bonds lowers volatility for a negligible cost increase in the adverse scenarios.”

Committee had an “extensive debate” around the tradeoff between solving for the lowest debt service costs versus limiting funding volatility, and how Treasury should think about risk tolerance and mitigation. When thinking about potential changes to coupon issuance in the future and timing, the Committee was mixed on how Treasury should approach adjustments to its current forward guidance.

Finally, the Refunding statement touched on the recent increase in Treasury buybacks, noting that in both the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon buckets, Treasury plans to conduct four operations over the refunding quarter, each for up to $2 billion.  In the other nominal coupon buckets, Treasury plans to conduct one liquidity support buyback of up to $4 billion. Treasury also plans to conduct two operations in the 1- to 10-year TIPS bucket, each for up to $750 million, and one operation for up to $500 million in the 10- to 30-year TIPS bucket. 

Treasury also anticipates that over the course of the upcoming quarter it will purchase up to $38 billion in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support and up to $25 billion in the 1-month to 2-year bucket for cash management purposes.

As announced at the last quarterly refunding, in the first half of 2026 Treasury plans to offer direct buyback access to a limited number of additional counterparties based on their participation in Treasury auctions. 

In response to the refunding statement's surprising notice of coming coupon increases, 10Y yields spiked not only to session highs, but are just shy of the highest level in the past week. 

Earlier:

Treasury Refunding Preview

The US Treasury announced it expects to borrow $569BN in privately-held net marketable debt in the Oct-Dec quarter down from the $590BN it projected for Q4 in July. The lower estimate is due to higher start of quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. The projection still assumes an end-Dec cash balance of $850BN, albeit some had been looking for this to increase to $900BN. Looking ahead to Q1 '26 (Jan-Mar), the Treasury expects to borrow $578BN, assuming an end-March cash balance of $850BN.

During the July-September 2025 quarter, the Treasury borrowed $1.058TN in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $891BN. In July 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of $1.007TN and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $850BN. The $50BN difference in privately-held net marketable borrowing resulted primarily from the higher end-of- quarter cash balance and lower net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $10BN higher than announced in July.

Turning to the Quarterly Refunding Announcement, Newsquawk notes that for the refunding, the Treasury maintained guidance that it expects to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters; any change to this would be of note. However, Morgan Stanley expects current coupon sizes to remain steady until February 2027, with guidance expected to be maintained. Regarding TIPS, Morgan Stanley expects the Treasury will continue with incremental increases to the TIPS auction sizes, expecting the $19BN of 10yr TIPS re-opening auction to be maintained, with a $1BN increase to both the 5yr TIPS re-opening and the 10yr TIPS new issue.

We will have a look at the upcoming buyback operations too for any changes. The prior refunding saw the Treasury state in H1 2026, it plans to offer direct buyback access to a limited number of additional counterparties, based on their participation in Treasury auctions. Morgan Stanley "interpret this statement to mean that the additional eligible participants for buyback operations will be the largest participants in auctions by risk taken down".

One thing to bear in mind is the Fed's end of QT. From December 1st, the Fed will start to reinvest all maturing Treasury security holdings on its balance sheet, while it will continue to let mortgage-backed securities roll off the balance sheet; however, the payments will be reinvested into Treasury bills instead of MBS. Morgan Stanley writes that after QT ends, the Fed will deem an across-the-curve reinvestment strategy as most optimal, meaning more front-end UST demand relative to the status quo.

Providing the nominal coupon auction sizes are left unchanged as per guidance, this is what the auction sizes would look like.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:30

ADP Employment Report Shows Labor Market Rebound In October

Following the new weekly update of ADP's employment report showing a rebound to job additions after two straight month of declines, analysts expected a 30k rise in jobs for October's monthly report.

And analysts were right with ADP reporting 42k jobs added in October (better than expected)

Source: Bloomberg

Services added 32k jobs while Goods Producers added 9k...

Last month delivered a rebound from two months of weak hiring, but the bounce wasn't broad-based.

Education and health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth.

For the third straight month, employers shed jobs in professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality.

"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year," according to Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced."

Small Businesses have also lost jobs for three straight months.

But, this overall rebound fits with the Revelio Labs monthly job growth data...

Source: Apollo

And a slight decline in job cut announcements (despite all the headlines)...

Source: Apollo

Finally, wage growth for job stayers and job changers was flat from September...

With females seeing higher gains across all age cohorts...

Hardly a major gain in jobs but its not a decline. Having said that, we find it hard to believe that The Fed will see this number and feel like another cut in December is not required.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:22

Futures Rebound From Session Lows As Government Shutdown Becomes Longest Ever

Welcome to day 36 of the government shutdown which officially makes it the longest shut down in history. Futures are trading moderately lower, following weaker Asian and European sessions, but well off session lows as Japan retraced nearly 50% of its losses during the session. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% having earlier slid far more following Tuesday’s 1.2% slump as technology shares dragged stocks lower globally; Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, also recovering most of their losses. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed with Semis weaker. Confirming just how dented upward momentum is, many of the larger Tech companies that reported last night are weaker this morning. Both Cyclicals and Defensives are mixed without reflecting which will outperform today. According to JPM, so far yesterday’s price action has yet to spill over to the US session and the view that a valuation-induced sell-off with Tech underperforming was a narrative that was forming. It may be the case that as the market looks to remove froth that we see Mag7 outperform the higher beta segments of TMT / AI. In overnight news, China banned foreign-made chips in state-funded data centers. Bond yields are unchanged, erasing an earlier and the USD is also flat. Commodities are poised for a rebound with WTI, Precious Metals, and Ags all higher. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP and ISM-Srvcs. With the shutdown in Washington leaving a vacuum in official data, the private ADP employment numbers out today will get more attention than usual.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed (Tesla +1.2%, Meta +0.3%, Apple -0.05%, Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%, Nvidia -0.7%)

• AMD (AMD) falls 4% after the chipmaker reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. While analysts are broadly positive, they note some issues with margins and the outlook. The stock has more than doubled this year.
• Arista Networks (ANET) slides 10% after the company’s forecast for adjusted gross margin in the fourth quarter fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Axon (AXON) drops 18% after the Taser maker reported disappointing third-quarter adjusted EPS and agreed to buy emergency-tech company Carbyne in a deal valuing the company at $625 million.
• Biohaven (BHVN) tumbles 44% as TD Cowen calls the FDA’s Vyglxia Complete Response Letter as “highly disappointing” amid broader concerns over its impact on the firm’s R&D spending.
• Clover Health (CLOV) sinks 20% after the health insurer cut its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, following third-quarter adjusted Ebitda results that fell short of expectations. The company notes high medical costs in the quarter pressured margins.
• Humana (HUM) falls 5% after the health insurer reaffirmed its forecast for medical costs for the full year, with the outlook below the average analyst estimate. The firm also reported higher medical costs for the third quarter than analysts anticipated.
• Kennedy-Wilson (KW) surges 26% after receiving a buyout proposal letter from CEO William McMorrow and Fairfax Financial Holdings to acquire all outstanding common stock.
• Kratos (KTOS) falls 8% after the defense contractor forecast revenue and adjusted Ebitda for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Mosaic (MOS) shares are up 5% after the agricultural chemicals company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Pinterest (PINS) is down 18% after the search platform gave a revenue outlook that is weaker than expected.
• Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) falls 7% after the server maker missed reduced estimates for first-quarter sales and profit and gave a disappointing earnings forecast for the current period, reinforcing concerns about its ability to capitalize on demand for AI equipment.
• Toast (TOST) gains 3% after the restaurant software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted Ebitda.
• Trex (TREX) sinks 33% after the maker of decking products forecast net sales for the fourth quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) slips 1.8% after one of its freighter jets crashed and exploded shortly after takeoff on Tuesday from Louisville, Kentucky, killing three crew members and at least four people on the ground.
• Upstart (UPST) falls 13% after the AI lending marketplace reported third-quarter revenue that missed expectations and lowered its full-year revenue forecast.

In corporate news, Google and Fortnite game maker Epic Games reached a settlement in their long-running antitrust fight over how developers distribute and monetize apps on Android phones. A UPS freighter jet crashed and exploded shortly after takeoff from Louisville, Kentucky, killing at least seven people.  Toyota’s annual profit guidance disappointed investors, a sign that the impacts of US tariffs are still weighing on its bottom line. Amazon.com is suing Perplexity AI to try and stop the startup from helping users buy items on the world’s largest online marketplace.

The VIX jumped to 19 on Tuesday but there’s no sign of panic so far in derivatives markets with the gauge holding under 20, with some 25/30 call spread buying, a likely hedge into year-end playing a moderate rise in volatility. 

“There has been way more nervousness than usual during the last rally, and that’s not a good sign,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “The market was priced for perfection so that explains why emerging questions about rate cuts, liquidity, and valuations are having such an impact.”

Crypto markets offered an early warning signal on the recent liquidity rush, with Bitcoin about 20% below a record high reached a month ago — before paring some of those losses in Wednesday trading. Holders of the cryptocurrency have offloaded around 400,000 Bitcoin over the past month, an exodus of about $45 billion that’s left the market unbalanced.

Meanwhile, the US government has reached a major milestone of dysfunction, with the federal shutdown now the longest in history — and economic pain is deepening. The CBO estimates 4Q growth could be cut by as much as 2 percentage points if the impasse continues for eight weeks. 

In politics, Democrats landed a series of local election wins. Zohran Mamdani was elected the 111th Mayor of New York, and his proposals and inexperience — he’s sponsored only a handful of bills while serving three terms as a state assemblyman — is said to have unnerved business leaders and real estate groups. 

ADP jobs data today comes in the face of recent corporate cutbacks which economists fear may be a warning sign, with companies such as Starbucks, Target, and Amazon making significant job cuts.

Turning to earnings, by Tuesday night, three-quarters of S&P 500 companies had reported results this season with a positive surprise ratio of 82% — similar to 2Q, which was the highest beat percentage since the third quarter of 2021. Price reaction to AI-related earnings remains volatile, with AMD falling despite lifting guidance, perhaps reflecting elevated buyside expectations. Other AI-related names to fall on results include Tempus AI, Super Micro Computer and Arista Networks.

Emerson Electric, FIS, Humana, McDonald’s, Unity Software and Zimmer Biomet are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Sales growth at McDonald’s is expected to accelerate to 3.6% from a 1.5% drop last year, as its enhanced value offerings resonate with consumers. Earnings from AppLovin, DoorDash, ARM, Duolingo, Figma, Fortinet, Robinhood, Qualcomm and Lyft follow later in the day.

European stocks fall for a second day, though with less severity than seen earlier in Asia. Stoxx 600 down by 0.5% with tech stocks underperforming on a drag from ASML. That followed weakness in chip stocks in the US and drops for the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 in Japan and Kospi in Korea. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Barry Callebaut climbs as much as 7.8% following results on Wednesday, with analysts noting its “sober” outlook, but Vontobel saying the chocolate product manufacturer is at least setting more realistic goals.
• Vestas gains as much as 15% after the Danish wind-power manufacturer reported a strong set of earnings, with analysts highlighting outperformance for its Power Solutions division, with a new and unexpected buyback program welcome.
• Aixtron shares climb as much as 7.6%. Demand for power from AI infrastructure could drive growth at the semiconductor equipment manufacturer, according to Barclays, which upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight.
• Ahold Delhaize shares rise 4.6% as the retailer reported adjusted operating profit for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Demant gains as much as 7.6%, despite the firm saying it now expects full-year organic sales growth to come in toward the lower end of its existing 1%-3% guidance range.
• Novo shares fluctuate in morning trading before rising as much as 2.7%. The Danish drugmaker narrowed its sales guidance for the year, while its commentary around negotiated US Medicare pricing was better than expected, according to analysts.
• Ambu slumps as much as 19%, the most in three years, after the Danish health-care equipment company reported its latest earnings. JPMorgan sees a miss to 4Q estimates, and new 2026 guidance implies large cuts to Ebit consensus expectations.
• Siemens Healthineers falls as much as 13%, the most on record, after the German health-care equipment group reported earnings which analysts describe as a disappointment.
• Pandora shares fall as much as 5.2% after the jewellery manufacturer lowered guidance for 2025 like-for-like growth and its 2026 EBIT margin target, and reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Nexi shares fall as much as 9.9% after the third-quarter operating revenue of the payment services provider missed estimates.
• Qiagen drops as much as 4.4% in Frankfurt as Morgan Stanley says the German life science and diagnostics firm’s fourth-quarter growth outlook potentially overshadows decent third-quarter results.
• Evotec shares fall as much as 12% after the German company reported results RBC called “dismal” with revenue and Ebitda significantly below consensus estimates.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, weighed by a selloff in tech shares amid mounting concerns over excessive valuations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.3%, before trimming some losses on dip-buying. Tech heavyweights TSMC, SoftBank and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest drags. Most markets were in the red, with Japan and South Korea leading the losses.  The selloff follows Wall Street chiefs’ warnings about an overdue correction, while fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the prolonged US government shutdown also contribute to the risk-off sentiment. South Korea’s equity benchmark Kospi Index finished 2.9% lower — narrowing earlier losses of as much as 6.2% — marking its steepest daily decline since August. Japan’s blue-chip Nikkei 225 gauge also pared a plunge of 4.7% to close 2.5% lower, while the broader Topix Index fell 1.3%.  China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index reversed early losses to end the day in the green, helped by solid gains in solar stocks. Indonesia also posted mild gains. Markets in India were closed for a holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is in a narrow range but has reversed an earlier decline. Sterling an outperformer, Swedish krona in the middle of the pack in the G-10 after the Riksbank held rates at a three-year low.

In rates, we are seeing muted moves in bond markets, with US Treasury yields little changed amid similarly muted price action in German bonds, while long-end gilts underperform slightly. US 10-year is lower by less than 1bp near 4.08% with German counterpart similar and UK’s lagging by around 1bp. Treasury 5s30s curve is around 1bp steeper on the day. Focal points of US session focus include October ADP employment change and services PMIs, as well as Treasury quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am New York time. For the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, dealers expect two- to 30-year auction sizes will be unchanged during the November-to-January period
IG dollar issuance slate includes at least two offerings so far. Three borrowers raised a combined $2.85b Wednesday. Issuers paid about 12bps of concession on deals that were 2.9 times covered. 

In commodities, gold is higher by $34 to around $3,964/oz. Oil prices up, Brent futures heading closer to $65/barrel. Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000, though is now holding just above that level.

US economic calendar slate includes October ADP employment change (8:15am), October S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and October ISM services index (10am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.7%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.09%
• VIX +0.5 points at 19.54
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1226.45
• euro little changed at $1.148
• WTI crude +0.7% at $61/barrel

Top overnight News

• The government shutdown dragged into its 36th day becoming the longest in history. Every week that passes with Congress deadlocked costs the US economy between $10 billion to $30 billion, according to analysts’ estimates, with several landing in the $15 billion range. BBG
• A "handful" of moderate Senate Democrats are considering voting to end the government shutdown. The deal would pass three full-year appropriations bills to fund some agencies, along with a short-term bill that would reopen the rest of the government: WaPo
• Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the New Jersey Governor election and Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia Governor election, while Democrat Zohran Mamdani won the New York mayoral election.
• In addition to Mamdani’s victor in New York, Democrats also scored other victories throughout the country. The party won gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia around a message of economic affordability. California voters approved a new congressional map intended to create five new Democratic-leaning districts. BBG
• New Yorkers squeezed by the city’s housing crunch also voted in favor of proposals to fast-track affordable housing projects, expedite modest developments and create an appeals board, vote tallies recorded by the AP and the NYT showed. BBG
• The Chinese government has issued guidance requiring new data center projects that have received any state funds to only use domestically-made artificial intelligence chips. Order likely to affect U.S. chipmakers Nvidia, AMD, Intel as Beijing tries to cultivate domestic AI chipmakers like Huawei. RTRS
• Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, said recent moves by the yen are deviating from what might be expected given interest rate differentials. The yen touched an eight-month low against the dollar after the BOJ left rates unchanged, despite subtle hints of a potential hike from Governor Kazuo Ueda. BBG
• A growing number of policymakers at the Bank of Japan believed that conditions were falling into place for interest rates to rise, with two members advocating an immediate increase, minutes of the central bank's September meeting showed on Wednesday. RTRS
• The Bank of England is exploring ways of encouraging lenders to use more of their regulatory capital buffers in a bid to boost economic growth. BBG
• German factory orders rose for the first time in five months. Demand increased 1.1% in September, led by automotive and electrical equipment manufacturers and beating estimates. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posted the "United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country. With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenceless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us. Our Stock Market is consistently hitting Record Highs, and our Country has never been more respected than it is right now. A big part of this is the Economic Security created by Tariffs, and the Deals that we have negotiated because of them."
• US President Trump posts it was his "Great Honor to just meet with high level Representatives of Switzerland. We discussed many subjects including, and most importantly, Trade and Trade Imbalance. The meeting was adjourned with the understanding that our Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, will discuss the subjects further with Switzerland’s Leaders."
• White House posted the Executive Order modifying duties addressing the synthetic opioid supply chain in China.
• White House said it is not interested in selling to China at this time regarding NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell chips.
• China announced it will suspend 24% US tariffs for a year but will maintain 10% US tariffs, while it will lift some tariffs on US agriculture goods from November 10th.
• Chinese Premier Li said some unilateral and protectionist measures have had severe impacts on the economic world order, while he said they should uphold equality and mutual benefit and consolidate the foundation of legitimate common interest. Li stated that it is all the more important for them to stay committed to mutual cooperation and pursue free trade when economic growth is slowing. Furthermore, he said China is willing to stand with all parties to foster an open and inclusive environment, as well as commented that countries should not seek unilateral wins at the expense of others, and need to balance their interests against the greater good.
• White House said US President Trump feels positively about the relationship with India and trade teams continue to be in serious discussions, while it added that President Trump and Indian PM Modi speak frequently.
• China Commerce Ministry suspends unreliable entity list announced in April; removes entity list announced in March and will adjust the list.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed after an early sell-off following the losses stateside, where tech underperformed amid valuation concerns. ASX 200 was rangebound as resilience in defensives and the top-weighted financial sector provided a cushion. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses and briefly fell beneath the 50,000 level with the downturn led by tech-related stocks. KOSPI collapsed alongside the tech bloodbath, which prompted the Korea Exchange to briefly trigger sidecars on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are mixed after paring most of their earlier losses following somewhat mixed Chinese RatingDog Services and Composite PMI data in which the former marginally topped estimates, but the composite figure slowed, while both the US and China made adjustments to their tariffs following last week's Trump-Xi talks.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Minutes from the September 18th-19th Meeting stated that members agreed current real interest rates are very low, and the BoJ is likely to continue raising interest rates if its economic and price projections materialise. Furthermore, members agreed there is high uncertainty on trade policy developments and their impact on the economy, while a few members said it is appropriate to maintain current monetary policy to scrutinise trade policy impact on the domestic and overseas economy, as well as prices.
• Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Mimura says recent JPY moves deviate from fundamentals, JPY long positions have been shrinking after summer. FX excessive volatility, not levels, is the main concern. There is some speculation in the market about Japan's macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy. A bit worried whether or not the current situation in the stock market might be a little too rapid.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened entirely in the red, as the downbeat risk tone continues to follow through into today's session. Lack of pertinent newsflow and a slew of EZ PMIs have had little impact to change price action, which has been fairly rangebound throughout the day. European sectors hold a negative bias. Autos takes the top spot, buoyed by post-earning strength in BMW (+1.5%) after reporting decent Q3 metrics, and reiterating its FY outlook. Tech is found towards the foot of the pile, as AI-bubble fears continue to grow; ASML (-2%). Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk (+1%) has pared initial losses, despite poor headline metrics and trimming FY guidance.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is to urge insurance bosses to increase investment in London, according to FT.
• The Times' Shadow MPC says that BoE should wait to cut rates again until after the November 26th budget. The decision was via a narrow 5-4 vote.
• Politico writes that the mood around French Socialist Party Leader Faure concerning the budget bills was rather optimistic. An associate cited said “What would be the point of a governing party doing all this work if they're not going to vote in the end?”.
• Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; reiterates that policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come. The labour market is still showing weak development, although there are now some signs that a turnaround is on its way.
• ECB's Nagel says the ECB should be vigilant but not complacent on inflation.

FX

• The recent rally in the USD that has been driven by improving US-China relations, the hawkish FOMC announcement and yesterday's global equity selling has paused for breath. As the US shutdown enters its 35th day, matching its prior record, official US data releases remain suspended. However, today we will be presented by the latest ADP employment report and ISM services print. The former is expected to see employment in October rise to 28k from the -32k print in September. For the ISM print, consensus looks for the headline metric to pick-up to 50.8 from the neutral 50 mark. Elsewhere, today will see the commencement of the hearing on the legality of US President Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Policy. DXY remains below Tuesday's best at 100.25.
• EUR is attempting to stop the rot vs. the USD following a recent run of losses, which dragged EUR/USD down from a 1.1668 peak last week to a 1.1473 trough yesterday. Incremental macro drivers remain on the light side for the Eurozone with final services & composite PMIs and an unrevised ECB annual wage tracker failing to move the dial for the EUR.
• JPY is now only incrementally firmer vs. the USD following a bout of strength overnight as global equities continued to slip. USD/JPY delved as low as 152.97 before returning to levels above 153.50. Recent strength in JPY has been stemming more from the risk-aversion price action in the market as opposed to anything Japan-specific. Fleeting modest JPY appreciation was seen in early European trade after Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura noted that recent JPY moves are deviating from fundamentals and that excessive FX volatility, not levels, is the main concern.
• GBP is attempting to atone for its recent run of losses, which have largely been driven by increasing odds of a December BoE cut and ongoing angst ahead of the November 26th budget. This angst was brought to the forefront yesterday following Chancellor Reeve's pre-budget speech in which she stopped shy of naming any specific policies but helped reaffirm the markets view that it will be a growth-negative event. Cable is holding above Tuesday's 1.3010 trough but some way off the 1.3139 peak.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with the Kiwi marginally outmuscling the Aussie on the cross. Overnight markets had Chinese Services/Composite PMI data, in which the former marginally topped estimates, but the composite figure slowed. Overall, quiet trade for the pair this morning, as the FX space awaits key US data.
• As was widely-expected, the Riksbank opted to keep rates unchanged and reiterated guidance that the "policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come". Within its economic assessment, it was judged that the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains largely unchanged. SEK was little moved.

Fixed Income

• A firmer start to the day for USTs but only modestly so. Action for USTs overnight occurred in tandem with the broader risk tone, as a move lower in equity futures was seen around the beginning of the APAC session, the fixed benchmark picked up, taking USTs to an overnight 113-02 high. Thereafter, the benchmark drifted as the risk tone picked up off lows and stabilised. Nonetheless, USTs hold onto modest gains but are at the lower-end of a narrow 112-26 to 113-02 band. The docket ahead is packed from a US perspective. On the data front, the monthly ADP (reminder, they also do a weekly update now on non-NFP weeks) series is due and expected to come in at 28k (prev. -32k); ISM Services also due. The Quarterly Refunding Announcement is also due and is expected to maintain the nominal coupon auction sizes for the November-January period. Finally, the Supreme Court tariff hearing begins today with oral arguments to be presented for the first time.
• Bunds are echoing USTs in terms of overnight direction, though the magnitude of action has been slightly more pronounced, Bunds are in a 129.26-47 band but ultimately remain in the green by a tick or two, as is the case with USTs. No move to the morning’s final PMIs, posting upward revisions to the services and composite measures. The latest ECB wage tracker maintained the annual rate and did not spark any price action.
• Gilts are underperforming peers. Opened unchanged 93.66 before lifting a few ticks higher to 93.69, acknowledging the overnight move, and then slipping into the red and currently to a 93.50 trough, posting downside of 16 ticks at most. Pressure that sends Gilts back to the 93.49 low from Tuesday, but still above Monday’s 93.37 close and thus retaining some of the support derived from the late-Monday/early-Tuesday press briefings around potential UK tax moves. Overnight updates include The Times reporting that Reeves is considering removing the 5p cut to fuel duty (introduced in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine), as it is not being passed onto individual customers. That cut, alongside the duty freeze that has been in place since 2011, costs c. GBP 3bln/yr.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks dipped at the start of the APAC session as Asian equities followed the sell-off seen stateside but gradually reversed as the European session got underway as risk sentiment improved a little. WTI and Brent dipped to a trough of USD 60.02/bbl and 63.92/bbl respectively before reversing to a peak of USD 60.90/bbl and 64.78/bbl as European players entered the market. Currently, crude benchmarks remain near session highs as markets wait for a new catalyst to drive the oil market. In the meantime, US ADP/ISM Services will keep markets busy.
• Spot XAU has rebounded from Tuesday’s selloff, which moved counter to the wider risk theme running through markets. XAU fell just shy of Tuesday’s low of USD 3928/oz at the start of the APAC session before trading higher to a peak of USD 3979/oz as the European session got underway. The yellow metal briefly extended higher to USD 3987/oz but has since fallen back into prior ranges. After falling over 12% from ATHs, there is a wider consensus that the pullback is mostly over as underlying drivers remain strong.
• Base metals have traded rangebound as the European session gets underway after 3M LME Copper fell for 4 straight days, its longest losing streak since late July. 3M LME Copper oscillates in a USD 10.58k-10.71k/t band as markets wait for a catalyst.
• US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.5mln (exp. +0.6mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -2mln), Gasoline -5.7mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +0.4mln.

Geopolitics

• IAEA's Grossi said Iran must seriously improve cooperation with UN inspectors to avoid heightening tensions with the West, according to FT.
• North Korea shows signs of preparing to launch additional spy satellites aided by Russia, while it was also reported that North Korean leader Kim could conduct a nuclear test in the near future if he wants, according to South Korea's spy agency.
• US Secretary of Defense Hegseth said the US military carried out a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel in international waters in the Eastern Pacific.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Oct 31 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.9%, prior 7.1%
• 8:15 am: Oct ADP Employment Change, est. 30k, prior -32k
• 9:45 am: Oct F S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 55.2, prior 55.2
• 9:45 am: Oct F S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 54.85, prior 54.8
• 10:00 am: Oct ISM Services Index, est. 50.8, prior 50

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The last 24 hours have brought a clear risk-off move, as concerns over lofty tech valuations have hit investor sentiment. Markets compounded these losses in the early hours of Asian trading but have been rallying back in the couple of hours prior to going to print with US futures clawing back towards flat with the KOSPI rallying back a couple of percentage points from early -5% plus losses. In the main session yesterday, the S&P 500 (-1.17%) lost ground thanks to sharp losses among tech stocks, and there was a big slump for Palantir (-7.94%) after its earnings the previous day. Moreover, this pattern was clear across multiple asset classes, as US HY spreads (+10bps) ticked up for a 4th consecutive day, Brent crude oil (-0.69%) fell back again, whilst Bitcoin (-6.18%) fell below $100k for the first time since June, some -20% off its recent all-time highs.

In terms of overnight news, it was a big election day across many states in the US yesterday including NYC mayor and gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. While the Democrat victories that we've seen were expected in these high profile races, the party appears to have mostly outperformed opinion polls. So an early sign of an anti-incumbent party swing ahead of the mid-terms in a year’s time, even if one has to be cautious in the read across from state to federal elections. In NYC, the Democrats’ candidate and self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the three-way mayoral race ahead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo. The vote was in part seen as a test of Mamdani’s leftist economic proposals which include higher local corporate and top-end income tax rates, though it is far from clear if these would get the necessary backing of the New York state legislature and Governor.

US political news will remain in the spotlight today as the Supreme Court is due to hear oral arguments in the case against Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs. Lower courts invalidated the IEEPEA tariffs back in the summer but left them in place pending appeal. While a ruling by the Supreme Court may take some time, today’s hearing could well provide hints of how the justices view the arguments. If the Supreme Court upholds the earlier decisions, it would impact many of the tariffs imposed this year, with implications for government revenue, though the administration may look to replace these using other statutes.

Back to yesterday and whilst the moves were only one day’s selloff, the market narrative saw a discernible shift, with a growing chorus discussing whether we might be on the verge of an equity correction. That speculation has gathered pace over the last month in particular, mainly because the Magnificent 7 has diverged from the rest of the S&P 500, which has revived questions about how concentrated this equity market now is. Indeed, whilst the Mag 7 have been advancing in recent weeks, the equal-weighted S&P 500 actually fell in October for the first time in 6 months.

Yesterday’s decline for Palantir (-7.94%) was seen as emblematic of this shift, particularly given they’d actually raised their revenue outlook the previous day. But given their share price had quadrupled in the last year, that’s set the bar incredibly high for any earnings releases. In fact, the Magnificent 7 (-2.28%) led the declines yesterday, with Nvidia itself down by a larger -3.96% as some of those top-performing stocks came under scrutiny. The S&P 500 ex-Mag-7 was also down a notable -0.75% with the equal-weight index -0.63% and the Russell 2000 -1.78%. For the S&P 500 itself (-1.17%), it was the worst day since October 10, when trade escalation fears between US and China spiked.

Whilst many assets struggled yesterday, US Treasuries benefited from the risk-off tone, with yields falling across the curve. So the 2yr yield (-2.9bps) fell back to 3.58%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.5bps) fell to 4.09% (4.072% as I type in Asia). That came as investors dialled up the likelihood of a December rate cut again, particularly as fears of a larger equity correction gathered pace. So by the close, a December rate cut was back up to a 74% probability, and that move got further support from the decline in commodity prices, with Brent crude down -0.69% to $64.44/bbl. Despite the fall in yields, the dollar index (+0.35%) gained amid the risk-off mood, while gold (-1.73%) retreated.

Elsewhere, the mood hasn’t been helped by the ongoing US government shutdown, which is now the longest on record at 36 days today, surpassing the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19. Interestingly, we did see mounting speculation yesterday about a potential deal between Republicans and Democrats, with hopes that a compromise will become more likely with yesterday’s elections out of the way. Indeed, the Polymarket odds of the shutdown continuing past November 16 have fallen from around 40% when we went to press yesterday to 27% now. We also heard from President Trump, who said that SNAP benefits (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) would only be given when the government was open, and he said in another post that the Senate filibuster should be terminated so Republicans could reopen the government themselves.

Overnight in Asia, markets are continuing their decline but are well off their early morning lows. The Nikkei (-2.62%) and Kospi (-2.83%) are leading the way with the latter down over -5% earlier. Elsewhere the sell-off is less severe with the Hang Seng (-0.31%) and ASX (-0.13%) rallying back towards flat and the Shanghai Composite (+0.14%) actually higher. NASDAQ futures are down -0.20% and S&P 500 futures down -0.07%, with the former rallying nearly a percentage point from the lows.

Earlier in Europe, the main news came from the UK, where gilts rallied after Chancellor Reeves delivered a speech that reassured markets about future bond issuance. Notably, she said that the “more we try and sell, the more it will cost us”, and she also affirmed that her “commitment to the fiscal rules is ironclad.” So that helped 10yr gilt yields to fall -1.0bps yesterday, ending the session at 4.42%. The speech comes ahead of the budget on November 26, and another significant feature was that Reeves didn’t rule out the prospect of tax rises either. That’s important, because the governing Labour Party promised at last year’s general election that they wouldn’t raise income tax, VAT or National Insurance (a payroll tax), so a shift in that stance would be a big political moment.

Elsewhere in Europe, the risk-off tone mirrored what we saw in the US, with the STOXX 600 (-0.30%) falling to a two-week low. Several of the major indices lost ground, including the DAX (-0.76%) and the CAC 40 (-0.52%), although the FTSE 100 (+0.14%) posted a modest gain as it was supported by the weakness in the pound sterling (-0.91% vs USD). Meanwhile, sovereign bonds rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-0.6bps) and BTPs (-1.0bps) all falling back.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for October. Otherwise, we’ll get the final services and composite PMIs from the US and Europe, German factory orders for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel and Kocher, along with the BoE’s Breeden. Earnings releases include McDonald’s and Qualcomm.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:18

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 42,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 25,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.

Recession Watch: Could The Next One Be Right Around The Corner

Authored by Carlo Putti via BondVigilantes.com,

Recessions often appear crystal clear when analysed in retrospect.

It’s easy to sit back, glance at the Bloomberg screen, and spot the evident recession we had in 2008 or the dot-com bubble of 2000.

However, discerning whether an economy is on the brink of a recession, or even if it is already are in one, is considerably more challenging. Recessions often become obvious only once they are well underway, and by then, significant economic damage may have occurred. For instance, during the GFC (Great Financial Crisis), many viewed Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008 and the simultaneous surge in unemployment as the onset of the recession. However, the recession started almost a year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2007. This shows that by the time most people realise there’s a recession, it is typically already in full swing. Additionally, macroeconomic data poses another challenge in early recession identification because it tends to be lagging and  subject to sharp revisions, altering the perceived state of the economy. Looking back at the GFC, labour market data in early 2008 still was showing a picture of positive job growth, suggesting economic robustness. It was only after subsequent revisions that these numbers were adjusted to reflect negative job growth, exposing the real extent of economic deterioration. These dynamics highlight why recessions seem obvious only after substantial damage has unfolded.

With that in mind, what can we discern about the current state of the US economy? Macroeconomic data doesn’t paint a bleak picture: the labour market appears robust and real growth is decent. Additionally, equity markets are at or near all-time highs while credit spreads remain historically low, suggesting that investors’ confidence in the economy’s durability is strong. But what if this perception is wrong? What if the US is on the edge of a recession, or even, what if it is already in one?

Typically, recessions are triggered by a substantial slowdown in monetary flow. When liquidity abounds and money flows smoothly, as it did post-Covid, the economy tends to boom. Conversely, when money flow halts and reverses, economic activity decelerates, ultimately causing significant job losses and a further downturn in economic growth. Therefore, monitoring monetary flows is crucial to gauging the future trajectory of the economy.

At a high level, money flows are primarily influenced by monetary and fiscal policies. During the Covid pandemic, both policies were expansionary, spurring the subsequent economic boom. Since then, monetary policy has become more restrictive, yet fiscal easing has replenished this shift, continuing to support economic expansion. However, today, we are confronted with a scenario where both monetary and fiscal policies appear to be restrictive, impeding the flow of money into the economy.

On the monetary front, commercial banks exhibit drastically muted lending activity, while the Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet and maintaining relatively high interest rates.

On the fiscal side, things started to change under President Trump, driven by cuts and the introduction of tariffs, which increasingly appear to be paid domestically as opposed to be borne by the exporters.

This leaves us in a very different position compared to the post-Covid boom era. Now, monetary flows are stalling and reversing. While this trend might not yet be evident in widely followed macroeconomic data, it is beginning to appear in traditional recession indicators that investors have historically relied upon. Richard Woolnough recently discussed Dr. Copper, a long-standing indicator used by many to evaluate economic growth prospects. Building on this, below is a selection of other indicators that also suggest a similarly bleak economic outlook.

Source: University of Michigan, Bloomberg (CONSUEXR Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (USESTEMP Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (LEI YOY Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (NHSPATOT Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Bloomberg (USYC2Y10 Index), 31 August 2025

In conclusion, identifying a recession after it has happened is often very straightforward, but identifying one when you’re on the brink of it, or even in the middle of it, is much more challenging. Recessions don’t start when the labour market cracks. That’s only a consequence of the recession, not the cause. They begin when money stops flowing through the economy, slowing down growth, cutting profits, and leading to layoffs.

Since Covid, governments and central banks have been pouring money into the global economy, helping it to grow quickly. But now, both are tightening up, making it harder for money to move around freely, which is a big concern for the future. Some recession indicators are already suggesting a potential downturn in the US, yet investors seem overly optimistic, assuming a negligible chance of an impending recession. I believe this could be a mistake, and given the current macroeconomic environment, we should be more cautious and start discussing recession probabilities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:05

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rate movements were mixed last week as Treasury yields moved slightly higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. The 30-year fixed rate was mostly unchanged at 6.31 percent and remained close to the lowest level in over a year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite a decline last week, refinance applications are still significantly higher than a year ago. The average loan size for refinance applications was at its highest level in six weeks, as borrowers with larger loans continued to seek ways to lower their monthly payments. Purchase applications declined slightly from a week ago, however, there was slight increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek loan options to help manage challenging affordability conditions.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.31 percent from 6.30 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Nigerian Officials Deny Christian Slaughter, Call For "Sit Down" With Trump

When South African president Cyril Ramaphosa traveled to the White House this year with his big grin and large entourage, he did not seem to understand the nature of the visit.  He seemed to believe he was there to wine and dine with President Trump, as he had done with Joe Biden on multiple occasions, and that American money would flow from the encounter as it always had. 

South Africa had become so accustomed to easy US cash they felt entitled to it.  What Ramaphosa did not understand, however, was that he was in Washington DC to be interviewed and tested.  He failed miserably.  His denials of mass murders and government oppression specifically targeting white farmers were exposed in real time.  The man was crushed like a bug in front of the very western liberal media that had protected his government from scrutiny.

A similar tone is being taken by the leaders of Nigeria.  With Trump threatening potential US intervention in the region due to ongoing attacks on Christians by Muslim militants, the Nigerian government is resorting to the same denials.  A Nigerian presidential adviser has made a statement to the press, asserting that the country refutes reports of Christian persecution, but is willing to have a 'sit down' with Washington to find a common front in fighting insurgency. 

Sources cited by the adviser do not have any regular observers on the ground in Nigeria, except for Amnesty International.  The left leaning organization is notorious for glossing over religious violence aimed at Christians in the country, designating it as a byproduct of non-religious civil unrest and crime, instead.  

It's a similar tactic used by South Africa to dismiss targeted violence and oppression of the white minority, along with crime data rigging to under-report murders or mislabel race motivated killings and politically motivated killings as simple "robberies gone wrong."  The problem is, the citizens and observers on the ground in these countries cannot be gaslit.  They see the tragedies unfold every day.

The data relies on how the attacks are categorized vs perceived motives of the culprits.  Some organizations post raw data on total Christians killed during these incidents while avoiding interpretations of motive.  Others specify motives and take a nuanced approach.  All of these groups, however, agree that Christians are vastly more likely to be killed due to militant violence than anyone else in Nigeria. 

Islamic militants of various terror groups do kill each other at times, often because of internal politics.  Christians are targeted specifically for their beliefs, while the Nigerian government attempts to partially blame them as if they are involved in the sectarian warfare.  

The International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), a Nigeria-based NGO that produces detailed investigative reports on religious violence, estimates 125,000+ Christian deaths since 2009 (part of 185,000+ total civilian killings), with 7,087 killed in the first 220 days of 2025 alone, alongside 19,100 churches destroyed and thousands abducted.

Open Doors, an international Christian persecution watchdog, ranks Nigeria as the deadliest country for Christians in its annual World Watch List. It reports a more conservative 3,100–4,118 Christians killed for their faith in recent tracking periods (e.g., Oct. 2022–Sept. 2023), accounting for 70–82% of global faith-related Christian deaths.

International Christian Concern (ICC), a U.S.-based persecution monitor that tracks specific incidents via on-ground partners, documents attacks like the June 2025 Middle Belt killings (85+ Christians in one week) and Boko Haram raids.

Global Christian Relief estimate at least 4000 religiously motivated killings of Christians in Nigeria every year.

To be clear, there are no organized Christian militant or terrorist groups in Nigeria equivalent to Boko Haram, ISWAP, or radical Fulani militias that initiate systematic attacks on Muslims or others for religious reasons.  There are also no widespread attacks on Muslim Mosques in Nigeria, and there are no specific incidents of state officials singling out Muslim communities or religious buildings for demolition. 

For Christians it's a different story.  For example, in 2021 in Kaduna State (under Sharia Law), authorities demolished 263 buildings in the predominantly Christian Gracelands community in Zaria, including 6 churches, a school, and homes. Officials claimed the land belonged to an aviation college, despite residents holding certificates of occupancy. 

Events involving the government destruction of Christian properties are common across Nigeria.  The Nigerian government, though it boasts of being secular and balanced, has only had one Christian president in the past 50 years.  The rest have been Muslim, including the current president (Bola Ahmed Tinubu) and vice president in control of the country since 2023.  Tinubu's wife is a Christian, but the base of power in Nigeria is with Muslim groups, primarily because they are willing and able to project violence at will.

This is why 12 of the 36 Nigerian states are under total Sharia Law.  The Nigerian government will be hard-pressed to convince Trump that Christians are not being singled out and targeted.  Too much evidence exists to the contrary, and simply categorizing political violence as average crime did not work for the South Africans, so it's unlikely to work for the Nigerians.  

Solutions will probably focus in financial cuts at first.  Nigeria receives over $1 billion annually from the US along with around $6.5 billion in FDI inflows.  Much of this cash can be frozen by Trump within days using sanctions and tariffs.  A kinetic response, though improbable, is currently on the table.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 04:15

Nigerian Officials Deny Christian Slaughter, Call For "Sit Down" With Trump

When South African president Cyril Ramaphosa traveled to the White House this year with his big grin and large entourage, he did not seem to understand the nature of the visit.  He seemed to believe he was there to wine and dine with President Trump, as he had done with Joe Biden on multiple occasions, and that American money would flow from the encounter as it always had. 

South Africa had become so accustomed to easy US cash they felt entitled to it.  What Ramaphosa did not understand, however, was that he was in Washington DC to be interviewed and tested.  He failed miserably.  His denials of mass murders and government oppression specifically targeting white farmers were exposed in real time.  The man was crushed like a bug in front of the very western liberal media that had protected his government from scrutiny.

A similar tone is being taken by the leaders of Nigeria.  With Trump threatening potential US intervention in the region due to ongoing attacks on Christians by Muslim militants, the Nigerian government is resorting to the same denials.  A Nigerian presidential adviser has made a statement to the press, asserting that the country refutes reports of Christian persecution, but is willing to have a 'sit down' with Washington to find a common front in fighting insurgency. 

Sources cited by the adviser do not have any regular observers on the ground in Nigeria, except for Amnesty International.  The left leaning organization is notorious for glossing over religious violence aimed at Christians in the country, designating it as a byproduct of non-religious civil unrest and crime, instead.  

It's a similar tactic used by South Africa to dismiss targeted violence and oppression of the white minority, along with crime data rigging to under-report murders or mislabel race motivated killings and politically motivated killings as simple "robberies gone wrong."  The problem is, the citizens and observers on the ground in these countries cannot be gaslit.  They see the tragedies unfold every day.

The data relies on how the attacks are categorized vs perceived motives of the culprits.  Some organizations post raw data on total Christians killed during these incidents while avoiding interpretations of motive.  Others specify motives and take a nuanced approach.  All of these groups, however, agree that Christians are vastly more likely to be killed due to militant violence than anyone else in Nigeria. 

Islamic militants of various terror groups do kill each other at times, often because of internal politics.  Christians are targeted specifically for their beliefs, while the Nigerian government attempts to partially blame them as if they are involved in the sectarian warfare.  

The International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), a Nigeria-based NGO that produces detailed investigative reports on religious violence, estimates 125,000+ Christian deaths since 2009 (part of 185,000+ total civilian killings), with 7,087 killed in the first 220 days of 2025 alone, alongside 19,100 churches destroyed and thousands abducted.

Open Doors, an international Christian persecution watchdog, ranks Nigeria as the deadliest country for Christians in its annual World Watch List. It reports a more conservative 3,100–4,118 Christians killed for their faith in recent tracking periods (e.g., Oct. 2022–Sept. 2023), accounting for 70–82% of global faith-related Christian deaths.

International Christian Concern (ICC), a U.S.-based persecution monitor that tracks specific incidents via on-ground partners, documents attacks like the June 2025 Middle Belt killings (85+ Christians in one week) and Boko Haram raids.

Global Christian Relief estimate at least 4000 religiously motivated killings of Christians in Nigeria every year.

To be clear, there are no organized Christian militant or terrorist groups in Nigeria equivalent to Boko Haram, ISWAP, or radical Fulani militias that initiate systematic attacks on Muslims or others for religious reasons.  There are also no widespread attacks on Muslim Mosques in Nigeria, and there are no specific incidents of state officials singling out Muslim communities or religious buildings for demolition. 

For Christians it's a different story.  For example, in 2021 in Kaduna State (under Sharia Law), authorities demolished 263 buildings in the predominantly Christian Gracelands community in Zaria, including 6 churches, a school, and homes. Officials claimed the land belonged to an aviation college, despite residents holding certificates of occupancy. 

Events involving the government destruction of Christian properties are common across Nigeria.  The Nigerian government, though it boasts of being secular and balanced, has only had one Christian president in the past 50 years.  The rest have been Muslim, including the current president (Bola Ahmed Tinubu) and vice president in control of the country since 2023.  Tinubu's wife is a Christian, but the base of power in Nigeria is with Muslim groups, primarily because they are willing and able to project violence at will.

This is why 12 of the 36 Nigerian states are under total Sharia Law.  The Nigerian government will be hard-pressed to convince Trump that Christians are not being singled out and targeted.  Too much evidence exists to the contrary, and simply categorizing political violence as average crime did not work for the South Africans, so it's unlikely to work for the Nigerians.  

Solutions will probably focus in financial cuts at first.  Nigeria receives over $1 billion annually from the US along with around $6.5 billion in FDI inflows.  Much of this cash can be frozen by Trump within days using sanctions and tariffs.  A kinetic response, though improbable, is currently on the table.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 04:15

Children Face Higher Risk Of Neurodevelopmental Disorders If Exposed To COVID-19 In Womb: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Children whose mothers contracted COVID-19 while pregnant face an elevated risk of developing autism or another neurodevelopmental disorder, according to a new paper.

A woman who is four months pregnant holds her belly in this photo taken on Aug. 10, 2018. Ulises Ruiz/AFP via Getty Images

About one in six children born to mothers who tested positive for COVID-19 during pregnancy was diagnosed with a neurodevelopmental disorder by age 3, researchers with Mass General Brigham said in the study. That was higher than the one in 10 other children who received a diagnosis of one of the disorders and were born to a woman who did not have COVID-19 during pregnancy.

“These findings highlight that COVID-19, like many other infections in pregnancy, may pose risks not only to the mother, but to fetal brain development,” Dr. Andrea Edlow, a specialist at Mass General Brigham and the senior author of the paper, said in an Oct. 30 statement.

In the paper, published by the journal Obstetrics & Gynecology last week following peer review, the researchers detailed how they analyzed records from births that took place within the Mass General Brigham system between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2021.

The time period was chosen due to there being universal COVID-19 testing in labor and delivery units across the system.

Mothers were defined as having COVID-19 if they tested positive for the illness during pregnancy, and defined as not having COVID-19 if they did not test positive.

The overwhelming majority of each group was unvaccinated, as vaccines only became available in late 2020.

Of the 18,124 women who gave birth and were tested, 861 tested positive for COVID-19 while pregnant.

Other records were reviewed to see if the children received neurodevelopmental diagnoses, using codes for autism and other disorders.

Sixteen percent, or 140 children, born to those women received a neurodevelopmental diagnosis by their third birthday, compared to 1,680, or 9.7 percent, of the 17,263 other children.

After adjustments, the researchers said COVID-19 infection during pregnancy was linked to 29 percent higher odds of neurodevelopmental disorders in children born to the COVID-positive mothers. The risk was higher for infection during the third semester.

Even though there was an elevated risk recorded, Dr. Roy Perlis, another author of the study, said in a statement that the “overall risk of adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in exposed children likely remains low.”

Funding for the study came from grants from the National Institutes of Health and the Massachusetts General Hospital Executive Committee on Research.

In the conflicts of interest section, Perlis listed being a paid editor at another journal, the Journal of the American Medical Association, while Edlow said she is a consultant for several pharmaceutical companies, including Merck.

The researchers said one limit of the study was not tracking children’s diagnoses outside the Mass General Brigham system, which includes eight hospitals. Another was potentially missing asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 among pregnant women.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 03:30